The Economic Populist
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The ECRI Leading Indicators is now down to -9.8%, which makes a double-dip a virtual guarantee.
Plus, Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell through the floor today, with one of its biggest single drops on record.
The government has already shot its wad on fiscal stimulus, so it can't do that again. All that is left is monetary stimulus, and that's an ongoing thing.
Also, I wonder if Bonddad and NDD can bring themselves to admit their yield curve "proof" doesn't apply in a ZIRP environment?
Just a minor note and just something to think about for next time, this is more of a blog post than an Instapopulist. Not a big deal.
Nixon took the U.S. off of the Gold Standard in 1971 and ushered in the era of derivatives as a side effect.
I don't know much more about international currency exchanges, during 1971, pre than that, so I guess I should read up?
Robert,
I am not a "gold bug" either. Gold is an analytical tool for me, not a speculative metal.
In each case I am measuring GDP in ounces of gold. In the opening years of the Great Depression, gold was fixed at 20.67 per ounce. In 1933, the dollar was devalued to $35 per ounce. The contraction phase of the Great Depression ends in that year. Between 1971 and 1980, the contraction phase of the Great Stagflation, the price of gold was no longer fixed - it was allowed to float.
So think of it this way: when you look at the contraction of GDP during the Great Depression you are actually looking at the what is happening in terms of an ounce of gold - not dollars. But, when you look at what happened during the Great Stagflation you are looking at dollars that are no longer fixed to an ounce of gold.
What I am proposing is if you want to understand the Great Stagflation and the Great Recession you should continue to keep your eye on what is happening to the economy in terms of an ounce of gold. Economic indicators measured in dollars are a misdirection.
I have more data to discuss on this subject.
here, but the GOP voted no.
Nice to know our regulatory agencies are not political or corrupt.
The site is truly missing the great stagflation and frankly I think we should be looking at 2001, the great job exodus to China, because I suspect this has a large "structural" (i.e. we shipped your job to China and India) component than realized.
but I don't quite get at all the Gold connection. I'm not a gold bug so maybe that's me.
Nice graphs but what is the unit for GDP during the Great depression period?
on the back of a cereal box or maybe you got that from a crackerjack secret message.
That's empty sound byte nonsense.
I've never met anyone who HAS to shop at WalMart who supported the notion that raising tariffs on imports, which translates directly into higher prices for the customer, would be a good idea.
Sure, I'm met (and debated) dozens who dream of bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US from China, but none who could explain why the Brazilians, Indians, Bangladeshis, Vietnamese or Mexicans wouldn't simply take up the slack.
In short, protectionism is anti-poor: it screws the little guy, under the guise of "protecting" his interests.
It's pretty amusing, she's hoping there is a window for civil litigation and as she updates, oops, guess not.
read here.
But at least my overall "emotional" statement on the case rings true.
If anyone watched CNBC it was disgusting. All they cared about was market cap, quarterly earnings and worshiping Goldman. I think all of those people should be required to wear vampire teeth while broadcasting. That and their frat house sweatshirts.
They said at the end of the release, but so far I cannot find out specifically what the "adjustments" were. They say what they incorporated but I haven't been able to chase it out.
Perhaps someone can email them to publish these adjustments to show the differential.
I also noted from last month, my raw capacity numbers were not matching the report and that's before these adjustments.
I also find it strange they do not amplify raw capacity. I mean, yeah sure utilization is key but that's a percentage and if you reduce the raw, then utilization isn't going to look so bad.
Hey, I geek out on these reports daily, so if you are also, consider getting an account. I know these get read widely but it would be nice to see some feedback, make sure I'm not doing a typo or hitting the wrong key somewhere. ;)
Thisisnot accurate - even the previous data does not match. It is supposed to be indexed to 2007, but isn't.
and then idiots like FAUX, Glenn Beck, seize on that popular rage and steer them to absolutely more corporate driven agendas as the "solution".
Harry Reid is clearly corrupt, corporate puppet guy. But look at his opponent, she's clueless on economic policy and the realities, plus seemingly has some sort of hatred against working people.
That's the new "choice", so it's corruption and the alternative is as usual, even worse.
...willful liars. That Sinclair quote comes to mind. Our society which requires that it's citizens be capable of dealing with an increasingly complicated environment, both manmade and natural, is turning out generations of 'citizens' who not only don't know who we fought against during the Revolutionary War they can't balance their own checkbooks and are utterly convinced that the economics of governing is just like the family budget.
I now assert it will take more than 'Fighting Back' as Steve G. used to say for us to survive we are going to have to...
...get smarter.
To our friendly anonymous drive by who is aware of declining raw manufacturing capacity in the U.S.
I had a rough time with a new custom graph. The data levels are not matching to the new stuff and I'm not sure exactly what's going on, so I left it out.
Bottom line it's the same as last month and I'm working on maintaining the XLS data locally so I can compare and just add. Can't jump 16 percentage points which is what I have so obviously something is wrong somewhere in the raw data I have.
The oil literally is stopping flowing out of the gulf. They are stress testing the cap, which is why this isn't a new blog post.
But for now, you can click on the above spill cam links to see what's going on.
If they manage to stop it, I will write up a new update with a larger focus on the clean up and the relief wells and additional new economic cost estimates.
This is GREAT NEWS! Finally!
It's pretty ridiculous for the MSM is busy claiming this is the "most sweeping reform since the Great Depression" and how "this will stop the next crisis".
Just like "health care reform" this bill is window dressing. The real "change" since the Great Depression was ripping asunder regulation and safeguards in 1999 which allows the great financial meltdown to happen.
I do not even feel this deserves an Instapopulist, I'm so disgusted.
I'm working on getting their graphs and pointing out the important parts. I just put up PPI and frankly that was a shocker. Me thinks we need to revisit the topic of deflation and what that means to real people, their meager paychecks, their SS payments, their debt plus the U.S. national debt.
I still don't see a negative GDP for Q2 2010 here at all, but the way these things are flying in as slow down, might need to revisit Q3. I personally am about ready to blow my top at this administration and Congress. What do they not get about national emergency for the U.S. workforce and what do they not get that yes, you screw the middle class you will screw the national economy. See that Time mag post on how much our government was purchased for?
Do you know how much Baltic weighs in on overall indicators? I need to get some info/research on the weighting, relative importance on some of these things. I've got a good feel for GDP but on others, I do not.
BDI now at its lowest levels since mid-April of 2009 (when the world economy was in a panic), and has now dropped 36 straight days, the longest streak since 1995.
I think we will be lucky if the economy is experiencing steady growth by the end of 2011.
The thing is those experts are just hoping.
They should all feel ashamed at their poor predictions.
Not only that, but nobody knows how to create jobs properly.
But we all know that we need them now, tomorrow.
It is common sense if you create some jobs, that is less unemployment benefit for the government to pay, more income tax to receive and the employees new spending will create more jobs.
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