Recent comments

  • A lot of the junk science in the labor market is coming from the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP). The inferences, carefully worded and presented by the NFAP are misquoted in other publications and then paraphrased in the media until "inferences" are presented as fact. The NFAP did a study on vacancies in major U.S. companies, I took a little time to look at these numbers objectively and found that the NFAP was crying wolf about an overall vacancy rate of 2.27%

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_5X8jR7YAvj0/R-_OewTgncI/AAAAAAAAALs/A6oS9hxp4YI/s1600-h/NFAP_Debunk.jpg

    Here's a snip from an NFAP press release, notice the careful use of the terms, "believed", "thought" and "potentially".

    Fifty-two percent of companies believed that for every H-1B professional they hired it created one or more complementary jobs at their firms or in the U.S. economy. Twenty-two percent thought the hiring of an H-1B visa holder created 10 or more jobs. Seventy-four percent of company respondents said an inability to fill positions because of the lack of H-1B visas has potentially affected their “company’s competitiveness against foreign competitors or in international markets.”

    http://www.nfap.com/pdf/080311pr.pdf

     

    Reply to: Measuring "Non - Employment" in U.S. Working Age Adults   14 years 1 day ago
    EPer:
  • "--and if banks become seriously weakened as a result — we’ll be right back where we were two years ago. The banks will need to be saved for the good of the economy. The taxpayers will have to come to the rescue."

    As long as Joe and others fall for that crap, the global banking dictatorship will indeed continue it's world-wide swindle. The "dilemma" is delusional.

    Capitalism was hijacked by global corporate fascism--it did NOT survive the TBTF system. It no longer exists. The market is a joke - it is owned and operated by the FED and its primary dealers.

    But ... the Truth will set us free. There is a way to bring ethical commerce back. And that realization, and the understanding of the cure, is growing.
    http://letthemfail.us/archives/6366

    Reply to: Banking as the Scourge of Capitalism   14 years 1 day ago
  • I'm sorry, we're all fresh out of being a platform for personal insult and attack.

    People you can make your points, and assuredly I will not say AIG was the cause of H-1Bs, as far as I am aware no H-1B was being designing CDOs and CDSes, although Vista, uh, gotta little news fer ya....

    But regardless, make your points without personal insult and attack.

    Reply to: Indian Offshore Outsourcers Start Propaganda Campaign, Funding Elections to Get Your Job   14 years 1 day ago
    EPer:
  • Are you saying that AIG's collapse was due to the outsourcing of some IT jobs to India???? So it is not because of any bad lending policies, malpractices and outright fraud by AIG?
    Fannie Mae failed not because of bad policies but because of Indian back room software engineers?

    Indians are at fault for Vista? MS was never known to produce the most robust OS, from Win93 and before.
    GM failed because of a 300million dollar outsourcing deal and not because of it makes junk, and always made junk?

    One could reel off a huge list of companies that failed long before outsourcing. Many of the companies listed failed because of not being nimble enough in fast changing tech market.

    Most of the decision making power is still in American hands in American companies. Most of the key decisions on software architecture and design are still made by Americans. Indians have for the most part taken over jobs lower down the food chain.

    You must be a poorly educated, over paid, disgruntled techie, who cannot stand up to a little competition.

    Reply to: Indian Offshore Outsourcers Start Propaganda Campaign, Funding Elections to Get Your Job   14 years 2 days ago
    EPer:
  • I am opposed to both legal and illegal immigration. This country is overpopulated, and 21 million Americans are out of work.

    Reply to: TARP Bail Out Blasted   14 years 2 days ago
    EPer:
  • henry paulson's
    TARP

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XlQeTFfdaPM

    Reply to: TARP Bail Out Blasted   14 years 2 days ago
    EPer:
  • The offshore outsourcing/global labor arbitrage/H-1B/L-1 lobbyists are out in full force, busy attacking EPI and putting up their fictional snow as "proof". That's the problem with white papers, hardly anyone reads them! It takes time to read these things and realize major statistical flaws, it's almost the same technique as derivatives. Few can follow and then give up, think something is valid and it takes some serious digging to see the flaws.

    I believe lobbyists snow Congress with these things but they put together one page bullet point marketing glossies with their "summaries". Because few read the actual white papers, much less realize the faulty data and methods...wala, the lie is implanted!

    That's why we need sites like EP, where we are not being paid to spin lies, we have no other motivation except to point out the lies of others. We don't have anything on the line (besides our day jobs).

    Reply to: Measuring "Non - Employment" in U.S. Working Age Adults   14 years 2 days ago
    EPer:
  • Hey, Crooks & Liars are reading EP, we made it to their reads section, Thanks C&L!

    They have a very good post on while other nations decide to do something economically, be it create infrastructure, build high speed rail or build up their manufacturing in some sector, they move in rapid time, whereas the U.S. just sits here, getting stomped on in the big global picture.

    This is so true, it's so corrupt and the system itself will not allow fast, directed economic trade policy, i.e. Congress is where great ideas go to die.

    President Obama's Nightmare is the post.

    We really need an independent economic and or trade policy board that can rapidly enact policy changes.

    Reply to: G-20 Meeting Gives More Power to China, India, Brazil   14 years 2 days ago
    EPer:
  • Obama extended the second half of the TARP, but the auto bail outs are the least of the worries. I personally think the auto bail outs were worth it, in terms of jobs and having an auto industry. It's the fact he kept it in place and almost first thing, passed the second part of TARP, about $350 billion. Add to that we did not get financial reform, TBTF is in place, derivatives, nothing happened and that's where the rubber hits the road in terms of all flavors of the political spectrum being outraged. (except for those in power of course).

    Reply to: TARP Bail Out Blasted   14 years 2 days ago
    EPer:
  • “We can’t do anything to change the world until capitalism crumbles. In the meantime we should all go shopping to console ourselves.” ”
    — Banksy, Wall and Piece

    Reply to: Banking as the Scourge of Capitalism   14 years 2 days ago
    EPer:
  • ...and O'Blather and his cabal of ca$h corrupted cronies 'wonder' why the 'base' has 'abandoned' them?

    TARP was passed in October 2008 under Bush, not Obama. Obama amended it to add the auto bailouts.

    Reply to: TARP Bail Out Blasted   14 years 2 days ago
    EPer:
  • This site, the only credibility we have is accuracy, citations, and you are writing in areas that the "spin is in", intensively so.

    Reply to: Measuring "Non - Employment" in U.S. Working Age Adults   14 years 2 days ago
    EPer:
  • Added the CPS query title headings and the formula for determoming "growth"

    Clarified section on illegal immgration and visa overstays.

    Linked to my blog for H-1B oversubscription -- couple pages of source material there. This post alreay getting very busy with sources in the footer,

    Reply to: Measuring "Non - Employment" in U.S. Working Age Adults   14 years 2 days ago
    EPer:
  • Yes, Cut H1-B's and Cut Offshoring.

    While there are many qualified americans, many americans have a crappy work ethic. 30% plus obesity and 4 hours of daily TV = useless. whats the solution to reforming our worth ethic? Many i know seem to prefer staying home on unemployment rather than earning 50% more working.

    Reply to: Ohio Bans Use of Public Funds for Offshore Outsourcing   14 years 2 days ago
    EPer:
  • surely others have estimated 16-64 page from civilian pop? Have you checked with other estimates? That sounds perfectly reason to me as a method.

    I think generally when making estimates, to clearly point out your methodology. While the "immigration" argument is visiting EP obviously, that's how we get spin papers or overestimates and when assumptions methods are not listed, it makes the situation worse.

    (obviously they haven't read the national accounts methods from the BEA...go jump on those methods please! :))

    I can validate the $50B USD of the offshore outsourcing industry, I don't know if it's just 2 million (I'm assuming you mean geographically located in India), that sounds low for some reason.

    Anywho, very good work, just a request to publish methods, assumptions, sources.

    This is something that truly bothered me about "Stimulus", they completely ignored the government contracts already offshore outsourced and insourced.

    The obvious "stimulus" was to simply cancel those contracts and bring them back here, hire Americans. you didn't even have to increase spending to do that. Notice how that idea never hits the national dialog? I mean 'shovel ready projects'
    ...gee, how long does it take to set up a call center here and train people to read scripts? (many support centers for food stamps, they offshore outsourced those jobs, as an example).

    Reply to: Measuring "Non - Employment" in U.S. Working Age Adults   14 years 2 days ago
    EPer:
  • The fact that new H1-B immigrants were hired to fill over half of the IT jobs over the last few years is a clear indication of US corporate intent to lower wages in that sector, and an indication of how US corporations have bought legislative influence. No doubt but that this pattern is repeated in other high paying industries. The recent Supreme Court decision allowing for corporate purchase of the government just makes it a done deal.

    Reply to: Measuring "Non - Employment" in U.S. Working Age Adults   14 years 2 days ago
    EPer:
  • But they are harping on the "Stimulus" which was seriously flawed and "Obamacare", not the bail outs. It's the bail outs, the no financial reform that the entire country is enraged about. It's the health insurance industry, the reform with no costs reform on health care, no socialized anything, it's "Romneycare".

    I think these corporations with their secret money are spinning the Wall Street bail out outrage and channeling it to their agenda...

    To me, picking Reid vs. Pelosi, there is no question who is the more corrupt one and that's Reid. The Senate generally is more corrupt, no surprise, since they are there for 6 years, hard to get 'em out and there is only 2 per state.

    But I think, just like Glenn Beck, we have these corporations, channeling Populist outrage and twisting it to their agenda.

    They would go after DeFazio because he is not a "bought and paid for"..I cannot believe it's working!

    Reply to: Corporate Takeover Stalls in California - Healhens hold the line   14 years 2 days ago
    EPer:
  • Because there is so much bullshit on "immigration thing", what I do is read the actual agreement. Then, 98% of the time, I find the GAO is be damn accurate.

    GAO, Proposed Totalization
    Agreement with
    Mexico Presents
    Unique Challenges , Sept. 2003:

    The proposed agreement will likely increase the number of unauthorized
    Mexican workers and family members eligible for social security benefits.
    Mexican workers who ordinarily could not receive social security retirement
    benefits because they lack the required 40 coverage credits for U.S. earnings
    could qualify for partial social security benefits with as few as 6 coverage
    credits. In addition, under the proposed agreement, more family members of
    covered Mexican workers would become newly entitled because the
    agreements usually waive rules that prevent payments to noncitizens’
    dependents and survivors living outside the United States.

    In 2006, supposedly SS was changing the way it issued SS numbers, a key element to guaranteeing the totalization agreement for Mexicans, i.e. the SS link:

    http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-06-253T

    But on the Mexico side, I believe it still "counts" with other types of documentation, basically working to "match" to some SS number, not sure the latest.

    On costs, even sites like "fact check" "fact check" from spin papers so here too, I personally try to read the gov. database sources directly and if I'm reading any sort of Academic paper, white paper, I check the math.

    There is no issue like this one which is massive bullshit, so whether you heard it from Lou Dobbs or some conservative politician or Keith Olbermann, frankly one needs to check the sources, the real ones.

    Sometimes they get it right actually.

    I honestly don't know what the big deal is here, the U.S. has tons of totalization agreements...to me the huge problem is they SUCK for Americans working abroad!

    They are great for foreign workers but for Americans, frankly they get the shaft, the benefits don't get pulled over unless you work there forever, very tough to get SS credits when working abroad, very lopsided.

    (not referring to Mexico totalization agreement here, talking about ones even with great "social safety net" nations such as Sweden, Finland, France...no illegal alien status involved in this ocomment).

    On "tax revenues", from what I know a lot of cash under the table. Businesses write off labor costs, even as 1099-misc, which I believe if they report, they are using 1099-misc to get around paying FICA, workman's comp, UI....now that would be interesting stat to look at generally, the increase of 1099-misc to wage repress, screw workers, plus the % of illegals...

    But bottom line businesses write off, so I've never seen any business profit increases and "tax estimates" for cheap labor either, but I have seen where the taxes paid into the system were calculated into net state costs.

    But from labor economics theory (and I'm sorry, no we're not taking Miami exception (Card) where other elements were not static, in fact the entire boom was fueled by drug money, see Cocaine Cowboys for the documentary on the drug money fueling construction, other businesses in Miami during the 1980's), it will show increase supply has downward sloping demand curves, it's labor econ 101.

    Reply to: Corporate Takeover Stalls in California - Healhens hold the line   14 years 2 days ago
    EPer:
  • We're at that low point with the United States Senate. It is beyond redemption.

    DeFazio in trouble. I heard that and it stunned me. He's been great. Somebody knows but I don't.

    Pelosi failed at two key junctures. She wouldn't allow Reps to go after the Bush crew for egregious violations of the Constitution. And she didn't go populist on Wall Street. She should have gone after Geithner and Summers with a big stick and the bailout process, as well. She is much better than Reid but that's like saying a broken leg is better than a broken back. It sure is but it hurts a great deal.

    Based on the SIGTARP report this week, Geithner should be fired. He's not.

    I just saw Obama on Steward. I kept quiet and let my wife do the commenting. She's not that involved but half way through she said, 'What a narcissist. He won't take credit for any failure. He's just apologizing for not doing anything.' That's what I call transparency.

    The Democrats do what they're doing because they have to. Otherwise they lose their funding and they're being paid to keep things as they are. The article by Numerian just posted at the top of the blog makes clear that Ben B and the boys are doing everything to assure that there's a return to securitization and the old ways. Nobody is calling him on that except 'we the rabble' and that's not going to stop them.

    It's a collusion by the 'crazies' and the 'sleepwalkers' to keep it all under control.

    Reply to: Corporate Takeover Stalls in California - Healhens hold the line   14 years 2 days ago
  • Hey Robert,

    To be clear, the graph represents non-employed not unemployed. So the graph represets the Unemployed plus the Not in The Labor Force for the working age population. I find it astounding that the number(s) and percentages have tripled since EOY 1998.

    The BLS CPS data:

    For each year in the NonInst Population (16 and over) I subtract the total of the prior year's population to find yearly growth. I did the same with the 65 and over age group to find growth in the non working age population and subtract the over age from the total NICP in each year. The same formula is applied to BLS CPS "Employed" in the two age ranges.

    Example: To find yearly working age population growth (X)

    A = NICP 16 and over
    B = NICP 65 and over

    X = (A Current year - A Rrevious year) - (B Current year - B Previous year)

    The same formula is used to find working age employment growth from CPS Employed datasets.

    Again, the negative numers in the graph is the delta below full employment (100%) for display purposes.

    Non Immigrant data:

    The H-1B numbers are factual from the recently released H-1B Characteristics reports at USCIS -- 52% of IT employment growth was absorbed by new H-1B issued in computer-related occupations when comparing to OES growth data for the same six year period.

    I estimated the L-1 visa, with a percentage rate drawn from IT related characteristics across the number of L-1 visas issued (to arrive at an estimated number of computer related L-1 workers) and the foreign labor share of new IT employment was over 80%.

    The US IT College degrees conferred data is from NSF - IPEDS

    Fully documented here
    http://immigration-weaver.blogspot.com/2010/06/h-1b-visa-impact-on-compu...

    As for my conclusion concerning illegal and overstaying immigrants, the metric I've developed here from historical data would indicate to policy makers to lower or raise legal immigration quotas in the following years based upon the prior year(s)non-employment rate. Yes, it is true that BLS does not concern itself with immigration status, presumably the NonInst Civ Population includes everyone, so we use it as the basis for the employment performance metric.

    Legal immigration is the only classification of immigration that the government is in control of, thus fluxuating legal immigration quotas would be the control valve for maintaining healthy employment levels. On the other hand, if the government found the will to control illegal immigration and deport visa overstayers, that may also improve the employment performance metric -- leaving room for higher legal immigration rates.

    All I know about outsourced jobs is that India employs 2 mllion in IT and the sector is worth over 50 Billion USD per year to India.

    Regards,

    weaver

    Reply to: Measuring "Non - Employment" in U.S. Working Age Adults   14 years 2 days ago
    EPer:

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