'No Hire, No Fire' Economy Rolls On With Jobless Claims Back Near Record Lows

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time fell to just 205k last week (well below the 215k expected and down from 213k prior). This is back near the lowest reading for initial claims ever having gone nowhere for five years...

Continuing jobless claims also remain below the 1.9 million Maginot Line, showing no sign of increasing layoffs...

Finally, as a reminder, sentiment surveys suggest the labor market is bifurcated with 'jobs hard to get' but joblessness not surging...

That chart reinforces the 'no hire, no fire' economy remains the status quo - no worse, no better.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 08:36

UK Gilt Yields Explode Higher On Surprise BoE Rate-Hike Threat

The Bank of England shocked markets this morning, signaling that it is prepared to raise rates to counter a pickup in inflation driven by the conflict in the Middle East.

Specifically,t he BoE said it would act to counter the pickup in inflation if it threatened to become persistent, but faced high levels of uncertainty about the outlook and would seek greater clarity before deciding on the path for interest rates.

"I will be monitoring developments extremely closely and stand ready to act as necessary to ensure inflation remains on track to meet the 2% target," said Gov. Andrew Bailey.

Before attacks on Iran by the U.S. and Israel began late last month, the U.K.'s central bank had been expected to lower borrowing costs at this week's meeting of its policymakers.

However, the conflict has sent energy prices surging, while its impact on fertilizer costs is likely to see a revival of food inflation.

Instead of cutting, the BoE left its key interest rate at 3.75%, a reflection of how the conflict has changed the outlook for economies around the world.

In doing so, the BoE matched the Federal Reserve's decision Wednesday. The Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan have made the same call, as have the central banks of Sweden and Switzerland earlier Thursday. The European Central Bank is soon expected to follow suit later Thursday.

Ahead of today, there had been expectations that there could still be dovish dissent on the MPC. The 9-0 vote in favour of unchanged rates has rebuffed such expectations. 

The response to the 'hawkish hold' was dramatic with 2Y Gilt yields exploding 30bps higher...

For context, that is highest 2Y Yield since Jan 2025 with yields up a stunning 90bps since the war began!

As The Wall Street Journal writes, for the BOE, as for other central banks, the key question is how long the period of higher energy costs will last, and what impact it will have on the prices of other goods and services.

Officials at the U.K.'s central bank have been chastened by their experience in 2022, when a surge in energy and food prices following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine led to a jump in wage demands, and higher prices for a range of labor-intensive services.

As a result, inflation stayed above their target for longer than they had expected.

 

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 08:25

WTI-Brent Spread Explodes As Trump Mulls Export Ban; Iran's Attack On Qatar's LNG "Worse Than Nord Stream" Summary: 

• WTI-Brent Spread Blows Out as Traders Price In U.S. Export Restrictions

• Iran Targets Qatar LNG Plant, Saudi Red Sea Refinery

• Trump Urges De-Escalation After Iranian Strikes on Qatari Energy Assets

• Middle East Conflict Escalates Dangerously Overnight Into Direct Strikes on Upstream Energy Assets

​​​​​​​* * * 

WTI-Brent Spread Explodes As U.S. Export Ban Priced In 

RBC Capital Markets analyst Julian Triscott told clients, "Our boots on the ground in D.C. suggest the administration favors a crude export tariff over an outright ban, though a full ban remains a tail risk."

Triscott said the Trump administration is likely weighing intervention in the oil market as gasoline and diesel prices at the pump surge, with a crude export tariff seen as more likely than an outright export ban, though the analyst said a full ban is still a major risk.

Triscott said the idea would be to shield U.S. consumers by making crude exports less attractive to foreign buyers, while potentially offsetting the impact with a pause or reduction in the federal fuel excise tax.

Triscott pointed out that traders are already beginning to price in this next intervention, with the WTI–Brent spread widening to its highest level since about 2012.

The market is largely pricing in a US oil export ban: Brent less WTI spread is the widest in decades (ex the negative WTI print). Export ban would landlock US oil, sending it sharply lower while sending Brent soaring pic.twitter.com/3YSLlVNZcx

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 19, 2026

Triscott's conversation with sources in D.C. about what the Trump administration may do next to combat surging pump prices comes as the Trump administration appears to be following the six-option playbook laid out by JPMorgan analysts last week.

On Wednesday, the Trump administration waived the Jones Act to allow foreign vessels to ship crude to US ports. That was Option 3 on the list, while last week's SPR release was Option 1. Option 2 is export restrictions.

We suspect the administration is following the six-point playbook, and here's what may come next (read the report).

* * * 

Energy Market Shockwaves After Iranian Attacks on Gulf Energy Assets

Brent crude futures surged toward $120/bbl, while WTI remained muted around $96/bbl, as Wednesday marked a major escalation in the US-Iran conflict. Israeli fighter jets struck Iran's giant South Pars gas field with air-delivered munitions, triggering a retaliatory chain reaction in which IRGC forces targeted critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf.

Iranian drone and missile strikes caused heavy damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG hub, while gas plants in Abu Dhabi shut down, Kuwaiti refineries were hit by drones, and Saudi refining assets on the Red Sea were targeted.

Unlike temporary shipping disruptions in the Gulf waters or the Strait of Hormuz, damage to upstream energy assets, such as production and LNG facilities, is far more serious and could take months or even years to repair, raising the risk of prolonged tight global supply.

Read overnight report:

• Iran's Attack On Qatar's LNG Plant Is Bad; The Math Behind The Global LNG Fleet Is Far Worse

Some 20% of global LNG exports originate from Gulf countries, and the latest round of Israeli and IRGC attacks on upstream energy assets shows how the conflict has entered an entirely new phase where energy infrastructure is being directly targeted.

Disruptions at Qatar's LNG facilities threaten to tighten the global gas market, with ripple effects quickly spreading worldwide - across Asia, Europe, and even U.S. gas prices.

European natural gas benchmark futures jumped as much as 35% today, pushing prices to more than double their pre-war levels, as traders brace for what only appears to be a prolonged period of disruption from critical LNG hubs that account for a fifth of the world's total supply.

QatarEnergy warned earlier that LNG facilities inside its Ras Laffan Industrial City were attacked by missiles, "causing sizable fires and extensive further damage."

"This could be a game changer for the LNG industry, akin to the attack on Nord Stream or possibly even worse," Susan Sakmar, visiting assistant professor at the University of Houston Law Center, said, quoted by Bloomberg. "This is a sudden disruption, with no indication that Qatar could restart anytime soon."

Global Risk Management analyst Arne Lohmann Rasmussen warned, "LNG from Qatar could in principle be offline for months and, in the worst case, for years. For the gas market, the crisis does not end simply because the war ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens."

UBS analyst Matt Salmon commented on the exploding energy risk premia due to overnight war developments:

Geopolitical risk premia in the energy complex rose further following attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, after President Trump failed earlier this week to establish an international coalition to support the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In a clear escalation of hostilities, Iranian energy infrastructure was targeted for the first time in the conflict, with Israel striking the South Pars gas field, while the US claimed no prior knowledge.

Iran had warned early in the conflict that there would be "no red lines" around retaliatory actions, and it made good on this threat with two strikes in less than 12 hours on Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, home to the world's largest LNG facility, with state operator QatarEnergy reporting "extensive damage."

Trump subsequently pressed for de-escalation of attacks on gas facilities in Iran, but moves in Brent were muted, reflecting diminishing confidence that the US has a credible off-ramp. Brent crude is currently trading around $112/bbl, Asian LNG prices are above $20/bbl, and Asian refining margin proxies exceed $40/bbl, amid rising investor anxiety over disruptions to global fuel and gas supplies.

Trump Warns Iran On Further Energy Asset Attacks 

Trump appeared furious with Israel over the South Pars attack, but warned Iran that if there were any further attacks on Qatar's energy infrastructure, U.S. forces would "massively blow up" the entire gas complex

President Trump's attempts at de-escalation were largely shrugged off by the market. Brent futures topped $119/bbl, while WTI futures remained flat around the $96/bbl level.

The Brent-WTI spread is blowing out to its widest level since 2012. The reason is that U.S. traders are beginning to price in the risk of a U.S. export ban, driving a disconnect between domestic and global crude markets.

Now entering day 20 of the conflict, with more than 4,000 dead across the region, energy infrastructure is being hammered with potentially lasting damage, the Strait of Hormuz remains clogged, and an energy shock appears to be spreading rapidly through the global economy ($5/gallon diesel), with implications for shipping, industrial input costs, and household gas pump and power bills. Against that backdrop, JPMorgan analysts are asking the key question: What is Trump's off-ramp from here?

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 08:10

US Naval Escort Won't "100% Guarantee" Tanker Safety In Hormuz Chokepoint: Report

The paralyzed Hormuz chokepoint is becoming the worst disruption to global energy flows ever, as actual barrels quickly disappear from oil markets, driving prices sharply higher in Asia toward $150 per barrel and potentially setting the stage for demand destruction in the weeks ahead.

The oil market has fragmented: Oil is now trading for $150/bbl in Asia (except the occasional sanctioned Iranian tanker) where demand destruction has started. China and India most pressured.

Meanwhile it is still $100 in the US https://t.co/QweAyzEN0a pic.twitter.com/YyvgAMdMwl

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 17, 2026

President Trump has been attempting to fast-track the reopening of Hormuz by providing naval escorts for tankers and other commercial vessels. However, there are a few problems.

First, Western US partners have rejected Trump's request to send warships to help reopen the strategic waterway, which is plagued by IRGC mines and kamikaze drones.

Second, Arsenio Dominguez, secretary-general of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), told the Financial Times in an interview on Tuesday that even if naval escorts materialize in the narrow waterway, they will not provide a "100% guarantee" of tanker safety.

"It reduces the risk, but the risk is still there. The merchant ships and seafarers can be affected," Dominguez said.

The head of the IMO, which sets rules for international shipping, continued:

"We are collateral damage in a conflict when the root causes have nothing to do with shipping," adding that his organization has major concerns about commercial vessels stuck in the Gulf running out of food and supplies for crews.

Sending US and allied warships into the narrow waterway, just off the Iranian coast and facing threats from drones, naval mines, and shore-to-ship ballistic missiles, seems like a suicidal mission.

"The challenge is going to be dealing with the proximity of the drone launchers and the missile launchers that are going to be along the Iranian coast," Bryan Clark, an expert in naval operations with the Hudson Institute, told The Hill.

Clark said, "The issue is that you only have a couple of minutes once the launcher comes out before the missiles are going to get on top of you, because you're only talking about 3 or 4 miles from the shoreline to the transit lane."

A number of top US partners, including Germany, Spain, and Italy, have no immediate plans to send warships into the waterway. This has only infuriated President Trump, as his administration has voiced frustration with some longstanding allies over their unwillingness to help reopen the strait.

The race to reopen the strait comes as Kpler oil analyst Muyu Xu warned, "The blockade is now the worst disruption to oil flows ever. Actual barrels are now disappearing from global oil markets, which could lead to demand destruction in the weeks to come."

Three weeks into the US-Iran conflict, tanker activity on the waterway has slowed to a crawl, just about 400,000 barrels per day, compared with the pre-Hormuz-closure average of 14 million barrels per day.

It appears the Hormuz chokepoint will face a very challenging path back to its pre-war status, suggesting the energy shock will hit Asia first. In the US, $5-per-gallon diesel has already materialized. Next, could the energy shock morph into a financial event somewhere in the world if the conflict is not resolved in a timely fashion?

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 07:15

Why Credit Creates Bubbles That Break The Economy

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The asymmetric scaling of credit has inflated The Everything Bubble that will burst with devastating consequences for the real economy.

When credit scales faster than it can be absorbed by productive investments, the resulting credit-asset bubbles break the economy. This is the result of asymmetric scaling: credit (i.e. debt, money borrowed into existence) can be created in virtually limitless billions with a few keystrokes, while productive investments scale only incrementally.

The Federal Reserve added over $3 trillion to its balance sheet after the 2008-09 Global Financial Meltdown. That didn't automatically create $3+ trillion in productive uses for this tsunami of credit-money. Private banks also create money with keystrokes: when a lender originates a mortgage, that credit-money is created out of thin air. This is "the way the world works" because this new credit-money is based on the collateral of whatever property is being mortgaged.

This system has a pernicious circularity: as trillions of new credit slosh through the financial system, the wealthiest few with the highest net worth and credit ratings can borrow at lower rates of interest than the bottom 90%. They snap up houses for investment, outbidding those seeking a family home. Due to the vast scale of credit available, the higher bids push housing higher and higher, providing more collateral for more borrowing.

This is how credit-asset bubbles arise. Building a new enterprise is time-consuming and risky. It's much easier to buy an existing asset such as a house, commercial building, stock or corporate bond. As long as the asset appreciates at a rate higher than the interest being paid, it's wise to borrow more and buy more assets.

What happens when cheap credit chases existing assets is those assets appreciate due to the asymmetry of credit and the stock of existing assets: credit expands by the trillions of dollars, while the number of new assets being created lags far behind, as real-world buildings and enterprises can't be magic-wanded into existence with keystrokes.

This is how asymmetric scaling of credit and productive assets generates self-reinforcing bubbles: since credit is abundant, the assets being bid up appreciate in value, making it profitable to borrow even more and bid assets up even higher.

But since relatively little of this flood of credit is actually being invested in productive uses, the net result is a credit-asset bubble that reaches extremes and then collapses, destroying the phantom wealth created by excessive credit.

The fantasy here is that creating credit in vast quantities will automatically expand investing in productive assets. This is not what happens, because of the asymmetric scaling of credit, risk and return: it's far easier to borrow money and buy an existing asset that's appreciating / generating income than engage in building new housing or build a new enterprise that actually succeeds in generating sufficient revenues to make a profit.

Borrowing and buying assets is easy, building something productive is hard: that's asymmetric scaling in action. This is why private equity is snapping up veterinary clinics, specialty manufacturers and similar assets and then jacking prices to the moon once a quasi-monopoly has been established.

Once again we see the pernicious consequences of the asymmetric scaling of credit vs. real-world assets: private equity can borrow cheaply and at scale far beyond what households can borrow, and so they have the means to make owners of assets "an offer you can't refuse."

The owners of real-world enterprises are often struggling to pay bills, obtain insurance, retain employees, etc., and so when private equity comes with millions in untapped credit and makes an offer, few can afford to turn it down.

Private equity isn't interested in starting new enterprises, they're interested in establishing localized monopolies because these are so profitable and low-risk. Cheap (for the wealthy) abundant credit is what enables this pernicious cycle of more credit driving asset valuations out of reach of the bottom 90% and the assembly of quasi-monopolies that are rentier extraction machines that stripmine households to the benefit of those closest to the credit-spigot: corporations, private equity, billionaires, etc.

Burned by Billionaires: How Concentrated Wealth and Power Are Ruining Our Lives and Planet (new book by Chuck Collins)

Since it's tax preparation time, consider the tax break used by the wealthiest few to evade taxes. Rather than sell the assets they've accumulated with cheap credit, they borrow whatever sums are needed to pay their living expenses. Interest paid is a write-off, and since they don't pay themselves wages or sell any assets, there is no earned income or capital gains: no income, no income tax, and no Social Security-Medicare taxes, either.

The Federal Reserve created this asymmetric scaling credit monster to goose the wealth effect: the richer we feel, the more we borrow and spend. But that's not all that happens: the wealthiest few borrow more to buy up existing assets, pushing them out of reach of the bottom 90% and enabling monopolies that extract wealth not by creating better products at lower prices but by jacking up prices for products and services of lower value.

Here is a chart of the S&P 500 stock market index (SPX). Absent the injection of trillions in credit and the resulting credit-asset bubble, stocks would be expected to track the economy, i.e. GDP. If stocks had tracked GDP growth, the SPX would be roughly half its current lofty level: 3.450 rather than 6,800.

If housing had tracked inflation, it would be at valuations 40% lower than current valuations.

The Federal Reserve reversed the decline of valuations in Housing Bubble #1 by socializing the mortgage market, buying up $1+ trillion in mortgage backed securities (MBS). The Fed now owns over $2 trillion in MBS, so when Housing Bubble #2 (2020-2026) bursts, they won't be able to ride to the rescue. The asymmetries of scale will succumb to gravity.

A funny thing happens on the way to the wealth effect: the already-rich get much richer, and everyone else is left behind in The Stockyard of Unaffordability. here is a chart of housing unaffordability.

The asymmetric scaling of credit has inflated The Everything Bubble that will burst with devastating consequences for the real economy. What scales even faster than credit is risk-off fear.

Where does all this leave the rest of us? Two things to consider:

It's harder for bad things to happen when you have no debt.

Greed is a wonderful motivator but fear works much faster.

*  *  *

New podcast: Current Waves and Cycles: Energy, Commodities, Inflation (38 min)

My new book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free).

Check out my updated Books and Films. Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 06:30

UK Lawmakers Seek Moratorium On Crypto Donations To Political Parties

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

A cross-party parliamentary committee in the United Kingdom has urged the government to impose an immediate moratorium on cryptocurrency donations to political parties until stronger safeguards are in place.

In a report published on Wednesday, the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy said the government should amend the Representation of the People Bill to impose an “immediate moratorium on crypto donations” until the Electoral Commission produces statutory guidance ahead of the next general election, due by August 2029.

The committee also called for the creation of a Political Finance Enforcement Unit to oversee these activities and reduce the minimum threshold for declaring political donations from 11,180 British pounds ($14,900) to 500 pounds ($668), and proposed increasing the maximum custodial sentences to three years for wrongdoing involving foreign financing.

The committee cited growing foreign-state threats and efforts to influence the UK’s positions on critical issues, including its relations with the US, the European Union and Ukraine.

The recommendation comes amid rising scrutiny of crypto-linked money in British politics. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK became the first party to start accepting crypto donations in 2025. Reform UK recently disclosed a $4 million donation from crypto investor Christopher Harborne in the fourth quarter of 2025, after a record $12 million gift in the previous quarter.

"Political finance and foreign influence" report. Source: The UK Parliament's Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy

Crypto donations pose “unnecessary” risk for UK politics

Crypto donations pose an “unnecessary and unacceptably high risk” to the integrity of the political finance system and public trust, without robust regulator guardrails, the report states.

“We see no democratic imperative to permit the use of crypto in political finance until adequate safeguards are in place.”

The committee also cited jurisdictions, such as Ireland, that have banned party members from accepting political cryptocurrency donations due to concerns about foreign interference.

The report comes shortly after Matt Western, chair of the committee, urged the government to put a temporary halt on crypto donations to political parties, citing foreign interference risks, Cointelegraph reported on Feb. 26.

Crypto donations raise concern in the UK

Political cryptocurrency donations are legal in the UK, subject to permissible rules under the Electoral Commission guidance. UK lawmakers reportedly started considering a ban on political cryptocurrency donations in December 2025.

In January, seven senior UK Labour Party MPs urged Prime Minister Keir Starmer to ban crypto donations to political parties.

“Crypto can obscure the true source of funds, enable thousands of micro donations below disclosure thresholds, and expose UK politics to foreign interference,” wrote business and trade committee chair Liam Byrne, one of the seven signatories of the letter.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 05:00

Owner Of Failed UK-Based Private Lender MFS Hit With Worldwide Asset Freeze

When we reported on the collapse of the first major UK-based private credit lender, Market Financial Solutions (or MFS), the UK mortgage lender that borrowed more than £2 billion ($2.7 billion) from Wall Street backers, and which collapse in spectacular fashion, we pointed out that the mastermind behind the operation, Paresh Raja, may have opportunistically fled to Dubai, although he may have since fled again for obvious reasons. 

Now, Bloomberg reports that officials overseeing the wind-down of have obtained a worldwide asset-freezing order against owner Paresh Raja. Courts in London and Dubai granted the order, according to a spokesperson for AlixPartners, the insolvency firm appointed by creditors to oversee the insolvency of MFS.

Paresh Raja must provide details of all his assets worth more than £10,000

MFS borrowed from Wall Street banks and investment firms including Barclays and Apollo’s Atlas SP Partners unit. The London-based firm collapsed Feb. 25 amid allegations of wrongdoing.

Creditors have since alleged that they’re facing possible losses of at least £1.3 billion.

“We welcome the granting of these applications which follow two weeks of intense analysis and investigation into the operations and affairs of MFS and Paresh Raja,” the spokesperson for AlixPartners said in a statement.

“This is an important and significant step in this very complex situation, and the support of the courts is critical as we continue our pursuit of the best possible outcome for all creditors of both MFS and its associated companies.”

A spokesperson for Raja declined to comment and a London court didn’t respond to an email requesting the freezing order. The Financial Times first reported the freezing order.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 04:15

'Restore Britain' Vows To Execute Pedophiles, Deport Millions Of Migrants, Outlaw "Incompatible Cultural And Religious Practices"

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A new force in British politics is making waves with an uncompromising vision for national restoration. Just weeks after its launch as a full political party in February, Restore Britain has already overtaken the Conservative Party in membership numbers, reaching over 114,000 supporters and becoming the fourth largest party in the country. 

The growth has been entirely organic through social media and grassroots efforts, with almost no mainstream coverage.

Campaigns director and spokesman Charlie Downes laid out the bold agenda clearly: “We will not lie to the British people. Restoring Britain will require decisions that are controversial and unpleasant.”

We will not lie to the British people. Restoring Britain will require decisions that are controversial and unpleasant.

We are going to strip millions of healthy Brits who refuse to work of benefits. If that causes outrage from those who think the taxpayer owes them a living, so… pic.twitter.com/eaOvdX23w3

— Charlie Downes (@cfdownes_) March 17, 2026

He continued: “We are going to strip millions of healthy Brits who refuse to work of benefits. If that causes outrage from those who think the taxpayer owes them a living, so be it.”

“We are going to deport all illegal and burdensome migrants. If that means millions go, so be it,” Downes added.

See “burdensome”.

— Charlie Downes (@cfdownes_) March 17, 2026

He further urged, “We are going to outlaw incompatible cultural and religious practices. If that means those who refuse to integrate no longer feel welcome, so be it.”

“We are going to execute pedophiles, rapists, and murderers if that is what the British people want,” Downes stressed, adding that “If that means we are condemned by subversive ‘human rights’ groups, so be it.”

He concluded by noting “We take no pleasure in these measures. It is a damning indictment of our political class that they are necessary in the first place. But necessary they are.”

In a video clip from the party’s launch event, Downes made the philosophy explicit: “We do not believe in conserving the system. We do not believe in reforming the system. We believe in revolution.”

We do not believe in conserving the system.

We do not believe in reforming the system.

We believe in revolution.

From my speech at the launch of @RestoreBritain_. pic.twitter.com/Ct05JdFSva

— Charlie Downes (@cfdownes_) March 16, 2026

This stance marks a clear break from the traditional parties that have presided over mass immigration, welfare dependency and soft approaches to serious crime.

It has also immediately become popular with British voters who have become frustrated with Nigel Farage’s Reform Party, over a perceived lack of transparency when it comes to their commitment to mass deportation, in addition to the questionable raft of defections of politicians from the traditional parties, the very people who oversaw the implementation of mass migration into Britain, to Reform.

Restore Party leader Rupert Lowe MP, who was ousted from Reform, addressed the need for tougher justice in response to a particularly disturbing case involving the sexual assault of a five-year-old girl by a Sudanese man. 

Sudanese national who abducted five-year-old girl while she played in Birmingham street before sexually assaulting her at his locked home is jailed https://t.co/M8WrG8UUxH

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) March 14, 2026

Lowe argued that standard punishments fall short: “Prison or deportation is too kind.”

“A Restore Britain Government would give the British people a binding referendum on the reintroduction of the death penalty when the guilt is undeniable. I would gladly vote in favour,” Lowe remarked.

I read of how a Sudanese man snatched a five year old girl off the street and sexually assaulted her.

The Mail reports when she was rescued the girl's shorts were 'round her ankles' and his 'lower clothes' were also down. He was 'bent over her near the bed'.

A five year old.…

— Rupert Lowe MP (@RupertLowe10) March 15, 2026

The speed of Restore Britain’s rise has caught many off guard. Lowe highlighted the achievement: “Restore Britain is now the fourth largest political party in the country – we launched just over four weeks ago… 114,000 members… The growth of Restore Britain is entirely organic.”

He pointed out the glaring omission in coverage: “The media are very quick to call Restore Britain racists, monsters and nazis. Yet absolutely no mention of a four-week old political party overtaking the Conservative Party’s membership total. It’s a big Westminster club, and we are most definitely NOT in it. Good.”

Elon Musk weighed in on the membership milestone, stating: “This is the only way to save Britain. There is no other.”

This is the only way to save Britain. There is no other. https://t.co/EpdmZO7uay

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 15, 2026

Since emerging from recent political realignments, Restore Britain has tapped into widespread frustration over open borders, failing institutions and a political class detached from ordinary Britons. Its platform emphasises secure borders, national pride and direct democracy.

With local branches forming and momentum building, Restore Britain positions itself as the vehicle for the tough decisions long avoided by successive governments. Whether stripping benefits from those unwilling to work, enforcing integration through policy or delivering justice the public supports, the party insists these steps are essential to prevent further decline.

The British people appear to be responding in droves. The old parties have failed for decades. Restore Britain is offering decisive action it says is needed to restore sovereignty, safety and sanity to a nation hollowed out by elite indifference.

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Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 03:30

2020s: The Billionaires' Decade?

Billionaires' wealth remains undeterred by global crises, rising by 25 percent between early 2025 and early 2026, a Forbes World's Billionaires List release showed yesterday.

During the Covid-19 pandemic, when tech stocks soared, it took an even bigger step up, rising 64 percent between 2020 and 2021.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz shows in the chart below, the number of billionaires worldwide surpassed 3,000 for the first time in 2025 and climbed to more than 3,400 this year.

You will find more infographics at Statista

The number of billionaires increasing more incrementally than billionaire wealth means that the individual billionaire has become richer on average.

The $100 billion club also had a record 20 members as of March 1, 2026, the release stated, while five people owned more than $200 billion upon the creation of the list - Elon Musk, Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg.

Musk's wealth soared to an incredible $839 billion as of the cutoff date due to favorable stock market prices.

The United States had a record 989 billionaire citizens, 29 percent of all worldwide billionaires.

China followed behind at 610 billionaires (including Hong Kong) ahead of India at 229.

Almost 400 new billionaires were added to the list this year, including a first each from Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Also new on the list are celebrities Beyonce Knowles-Carter, Roger Federer, Dr. Dre and James Cameron as well as 45 new AI billionaires, some of them only in their early 20s.

This year's 3,428 billionaires had a collective fortune of $20.1 trillion, or $5.9 billion each.

This is in contrast to 2013, when average billionaire wealth stood at just $3.8 billion. While billionaires form the tip of global wealth inequality, they themselves exhibit an unequal distribution of wealth, with the above-mentioned 20 centibillionaires worth $3.8 trillon combined, which is more than the "bottom" 2,000 billionaires on the list own collectively.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 02:45

"We Can't Live Like This Anymore!" - Residents Demand Action As Migrant-Linked Violence Spirals In Rome

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Residents in Rome’s San Lorenzo district are sounding the alarm over a surge in violence they say is increasingly driven by homeless migrants, after another brutal street attack left a man hospitalized and renewed calls for urgent security measures.

The latest incident unfolded in Piazza di Porta San Lorenzo, where a 30-year-old Gambian man allegedly slashed a Moroccan man with a broken bottle in the middle of the street, striking his neck and face and leaving him collapsed on the ground.

The victim was rushed to Umberto I Hospital, where he remains in serious condition, while police used footage captured at the scene to quickly identify and arrest the suspect after he fled.

For many locals, however, the attack is just the latest in a growing pattern. Residents say the area has become dominated by groups of vagrants, often intoxicated or under the influence of drugs, who regularly fight among themselves but also target passersby at random.

“The problem is that they don’t just fight among themselves, they also attack us residents. Men, women, and even children,” Sofia, a waitress who lives near Piazza dei Caduti, told Il Messaggero.

According to the Italian newspaper, a neighborhood assembly has now been called in response, with residents describing a situation that has become “unsustainable.”

Katia Pace, head of the local committee organizing the meeting, said violence has escalated sharply in recent weeks.

“Cases have increased visibly in the last two months. Just a few days ago, two women were beaten and robbed,” she said.

Despite stepped-up patrols and recent police operations that led to multiple arrests in nearby districts, residents say the response falls short of what is needed to restore order.

“It’s not enough,” said Maria, another concerned resident. “We can’t live like this anymore.”

Scenes of disorder that are fuelling insecurity have become commonplace, locals say.

In public parks, families with young children are forced to navigate areas where men sleep on benches, drink heavily, argue, and urinate openly, heightening fears about safety and hygiene.

Concerns have also been raised over attacks involving minors.

In one case, a 12-year-old girl was targeted, while a separate incident saw a Tunisian man arrested after assaulting a woman and fracturing her nose and cheekbone. The attack, captured on surveillance footage, triggered a wave of additional complaints from women reporting similar unprovoked violence.

“There have been at least 15 cases,” said Pace, adding that those responsible are typically “homeless foreigners” living in the area, many of whom are said to suffer from addiction or mental health issues.

Encampments have spread across multiple parts of the district, including along the Aurelian Walls and several central squares, with tents and makeshift shelters now a regular sight.

“The patience of those who live here is not infinite,” another resident told Il Messaggero, warning that vigilante-style reactions could emerge if the situation continues to deteriorate.

The unrest in San Lorenzo reflects broader concerns across Italy, where similar incidents involving migrant populations have heightened perceptions of insecurity, particularly in urban areas.

In Ravenna earlier this year, female railway workers reported repeated harassment by a migrant who continued to frequent the station despite multiple complaints. “The workers are terrified,” said union official Manola Cavallaro, warning that the failure to act sooner risked more serious violence.

In Milan, a 25-year-old man was left with severe head injuries after being attacked by two Bosnian Muslims for his watch near the city center, later warning others to avoid the area at night.

“Just a word of advice: In Milan, don’t turn towards the Duomo because it’s not safe. I had my head smashed in for a watch,” said victim Alessandro Briguglio last summer.

Official data has also pointed to the scale of the issue. Milan’s police commissioner told lawmakers that foreigners were responsible for around 80 percent of predatory crimes in the city, while Interior Ministry figures indicate that foreign nationals are disproportionately represented in certain violent offences despite making up a minority of the population. In particular, 44 percent of all sexual offenses are reportedly committed by foreign nationals.

At the same time, more than 30,000 foreign nationals are currently serving sentences outside prison under alternative measures, raising further questions about enforcement and public safety.

Despite these concerns, the Rome city council has still been encouraging families to take in migrants. In September last year, it launched a call for proposals to find families willing to host migrants with valid residence permits in their homes for the next three years.

Officials say the service is intended to provide “a welcoming environment geared toward inclusion and autonomy,” helping young adults in particular to gain independence.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 02:00

17 Veterans Kill Themselves A Day Waiting 17 Days For Help

Authored by Sean O'Connor via RealClearDefense,

Every day, roughly 17 veterans take their own lives. For two decades, that number hasn't budged. 

VA Secretary Doug Collins said that despite spending billions of dollars, we're losing the same number of veterans every year. For veterans under the age of 45, a recent report shows suicide is the second-leading cause of death. They’re not faceless statistics, but fathers, mothers, brothers, and sisters who couldn't survive the wait for help. 

What makes this unbearable is that while those veterans were in crisis, veterans wait an average of 17 days to see a mental health professional for the first time. Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), ranking member of the Veterans' Affairs Committee, wrote that these delays ‘pose serious risks to the health and safety of those who served.’ 

The problem isn't money. In November, President Trump signed a $133 billion VA funding bill that includes $698 million for suicide prevention outreach. And the problem isn’t resourcing, as more than 9 million scheduled visits go unutilized each year due to missed appointments. The problem is that the infrastructure can’t keep up. 

The VA operates on electronic record systems that don't communicate across facilities, community providers, or state lines, the very kind of coordination that's standard in private health systems. 

Consider the veteran who needs help for mental health or PTSD treatment. There might be an appointment at their local VA, an available telehealth appointment, or a nearby walk-in clinic. But the scheduling infrastructure can't surface those pathways together. Staff can’t schedule across the network, even though there's availability to address a veteran’s needs that day. The veteran can't book online, and they're told to wait, call back, or try another number. 

The inefficiencies are well documented. The VA's own Access to Care website shows it: mental health, primary care, specialty services, all backed up. At the West Los Angeles VA, new patients wait 69 days for mental health, 49 days for pain medicine, and 100 days for substance use treatment. VA clinicians are mission-driven and understand the wounds of war, but they're working with systems that can't deliver at the speed healthcare demands. 

The largest health systems in America manage their networks in real time. Open appointments, provider resourcing, and patient needs are all visible in a single ‘pane of glass’ that call center staff can reference to route patients. For decades, VA has struggled to do the same. For a fraction of what VA spends, that same capability can be deployed systemwide. Not to add bureaucracy but linking the network so it operates as one. 

Veteran suicide is complex. Stigma keeps many from seeking help, and nearly 33,000 veterans are homeless each night, many struggling with mental illness and disconnected from care. That makes it even more critical that when a veteran reaches out—after overcoming enormous barriers—the system responds immediately. We can't afford to lose them to wait times and scheduling friction after they've found the courage to ask for help. 

Of course, technology alone won't solve this. Some argue that expanding community care—a program that lets eligible veterans see local private providers—is the solution. It's part of the answer. But more choice doesn't help if veterans and schedulers can't see what's available, most convenient, or the soonest. 

When a veteran reaches out, the person on the other end should be able to see every available option, including a nearby clinic, a VA specialty appointment, a community care provider, a virtual visit, a VA physician, and a mental health counselor. The VA should—and can—work as a single system that connects veterans in that moment. 

VA Secretary Collins said the finger-pointing is done. Not “we can't do it.” Not “we don't have enough money.” The VA must modernize its legacy systems with navigational intelligence that provides staff with a real-time view of its entire network. One interface. All the appointments. All the providers. And the ability to match a veteran in crisis—or one just looking to book an annual physical—to care now, not next month. 

The funding and technology are there. What’s needed is urgency to deploy. Because somewhere today, a veteran will reach out for help. And whether they get it in time shouldn't depend on whether the right systems happen to be talking to each other. 

Veterans unite us.  

Rural or urban, red state or blue state, they're ours. We asked them to serve and sacrifice. The least we can do is make sure they can see a doctor when they need one.

Sean O’Connor is founder of DexCare and a former Naval Officer

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 23:05

Former Air Force Officer Claims UFOs Disabled Nuclear Missiles

A former U.S. Air Force missile launch officer says unidentified flying objects once disabled several nuclear missiles at a base in Montana during the Cold War, according to the NY Post.

Robert Salas, now 85, said the incident occurred in 1967 at Malmstrom Air Force Base, where he was on duty monitoring LGM-30 Minuteman I missiles. Speaking on the The Danny Jones Podcast, Salas recalled that guards above ground reported strange lights flying over the base late one night.

According to Salas, the guards initially described fast-moving lights that stopped suddenly above the missile facility. Minutes later, one guard called back in a panic, saying a craft emitting a reddish, pulsating glow was hovering near the front gate. He also reported that one of the guards had been injured during the incident.

The NY Post wrote that shortly after the call, warning alarms sounded inside the underground control center. Salas said the launch control panel showed one missile going offline, followed quickly by the rest. Within moments, all ten missiles at the site became inoperable.

Security teams were sent toward the missile silos, but Salas said they stopped after spotting the lights hovering above the launch areas and were too frightened to approach.

An investigation later examined the shutdown but could not determine what caused it. Salas said the missile systems were designed with heavy shielding to prevent outside interference.

He added that Air Force investigators required him and his commander to sign secrecy agreements afterward, warning them not to discuss the event. Salas said he eventually decided to speak publicly years later after learning about similar reports in books about unidentified aerial phenomena.

Salas believes the incident may suggest the presence of a non-human intelligence interested in preventing nuclear conflict, though the cause of the missile shutdown was never confirmed.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 22:40

WHO Convenes Global Session To Dictate How The Coming Influenza Pandemic Will Be Run

Authored by Jon Fleetwood via substack,

The World Health Organization will convene an online international pandemic control session on Wednesday, March 18, centered on the unelected globalist group’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness (PIP) Framework, according to a WHO press release.

PIP is the international structure through which the WHO, a foreign syndicate, dictates how influenza virus samples are transferred worldwide, and how pandemic vaccines, antivirals, and diagnostics are allocated once an influenza pandemic response is activated.

The new pandemic control session, organized through the WHO’s Epidemics and Pandemics Information Network (EPI-WIN), will decree how governments, laboratories participating in the WHO influenza surveillance network, and pharmaceutical manufacturers operate under the framework during an influenza pandemic response.

The United States is still participating in WHO pandemic surveillance networks (here)—including the organization’s CoViNet sentinel surveillance system, which now spans 45 reference laboratories worldwide—through institutions such as Emory University, Ohio State University, and the CDC, despite President Donald Trump’s executive order publicly withdrawing the country from the organization earlier this year.

The PIP Framework was adopted by the Sixty-fourth World Health Assembly on May 24, 2011, following negotiations among WHO member states that began in 2007.

According to the WHO event description, tomorrow’s session will address “the roles and responsibilities of different stakeholders in implementing the PIP Framework.”

WHO describes the system as “the first and only global access and benefit-sharing system for public health.”

Pharmaceutical manufacturers participating in the system gain access to those materials in exchange for supplying pandemic countermeasures, including vaccines, antiviral drugs, and diagnostic technologies.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the WHO directed the international scientific community to treat a digital SARS-CoV-2 genome released by the Chinese government as authoritative—despite no independent verification of the underlying patient sample—leading governments and pharmaceutical companies worldwide to immediately build diagnostics, surveillance systems, and vaccines from the sequence.

SARS-CoV-2 is said to have killed millions worldwide and was “likely” the result of a laboratory manipulation, according to Congress, the White House, the Department of Energy, the FBI, the CIA, and Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND).

The COVID vaccine has been linked to 39,000 deaths, though a federally funded Harvard Pilgrim study found that fewer than 1% of vaccine adverse events are reported to the CDC’s Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS)—meaning the true number of vaccine-linked injuries and deaths could be significantly higher.

Those events demonstrate how a WHO-directed pandemic framework can rapidly set the global scientific consensus and mobilize governments and pharmaceutical manufacturers worldwide—decisions that ultimately determine whether millions live or die.

Speakers listed for the session include Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, acting director of epidemic and pandemic management at WHO, along with officials responsible for overseeing implementation of the PIP Framework.

Dr. Kerkhove faces significant criticism from health freedom advocates who view her as a key figure promoting restrictive, top-down public health policies during the COVID-19 pandemic, such as widespread mask mandates, lockdowns, and mass vaccination campaigns that they see as infringing on personal bodily autonomy and individual choice.

Critics particularly highlight Kerkhove’s strong opposition to allowing natural herd immunity through widespread infection (calling it “dangerous and unethical”), her emphasis on global vaccine “equity” and broad uptake over voluntary or alternative approaches, and her role in communicating WHO guidance that justified prolonged emergency measures and surveillance.

She is often portrayed in these circles as a symbol of unelected global health bureaucracy prioritizing collective control and pharmaceutical solutions over personal freedoms, risk stratification, and decentralized decision-making.

The WHO has elsewhere vowed that “there will be influenza pandemics in the future.”

With the WHO now activating its influenza pandemic command framework, the infrastructure that governed the COVID-19 response is already being positioned to run the next pandemic cycle.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 22:15

Teacher Who Resigned Over DEI Says "Ideological Takeover" Is Getting Worse

In a recently released NY Post op-ed, teacher Dana Stangel-Plowe described why she publicly resigned from the Dwight-Englewood School in 2021 after witnessing what she calls an ideological takeover of K-12 education.

She writes that the shift began after faculty trainings on privilege and the hiring of a diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) officer whose goal was to “transform” the school. According to the op-ed, DEI ideology soon spread through curriculum, faculty training, and student programming, with concepts like systemic oppression treated as unquestionable and some traditional authors labeled “dead white males” and removed from core coursework.

Stangel-Plowe argues the environment discouraged open debate, with students afraid to speak freely and teachers privately hesitant to challenge the new orthodoxy. After raising concerns internally without response, she resigned publicly.

The Post op-ed says that five years later, she says the trend has intensified nationwide, claiming ideological activism has spread through teacher training programs, unions, and curricula. She warns that politicized education undermines intellectual curiosity and civic learning, and urges educators and parents to confront the issue openly.

She also recounts what she describes as the social and professional fallout from her decision. After speaking out, she says she lost friendships and that even her children were excluded from some school community events. Despite the personal cost, she writes that the experience connected her with education reform advocates and parents across the country who share similar concerns about the direction of schools.

The op-ed further claims that activist groups and political organizers — including members associated with the Democratic Socialists of America — are increasingly influencing education through unions, curriculum partnerships, and political organizing.

Stangel-Plowe argues that schools should refocus on open inquiry and intellectual diversity rather than what she views as ideological instruction.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 21:50

AI Insiders Warn Of Dangers Of 'Emergent Strategic Behavior'

Authored by Autumn Spredemann via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

As the landscape of autonomous artificial intelligence systems evolves, there’s growing concern that the technology is becoming increasingly strategic—or even deceptive—when allowed to operate without human guidance.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

Recent evidence suggests that behaviors such as “alignment faking” are becoming more common as AI models are given autonomy. The term alignment faking refers to when an AI agent appears compliant with rules set by human operators, but covertly pursues other objectives.

The phenomenon is an example of “emergent strategic behavior”—unpredictable and potentially harmful tactics that evolve as AI systems become bigger and more complex.

In a recent study titled “Agents of Chaos,” a team of 20 researchers interacted with autonomous AI agents and observed behavior under both “benign” and “adversarial” conditions.

They found that when an AI agent was given incentives such as self-preservation or conflicting goal metrics, it proved itself capable of misaligned and malicious behaviors.

Some of the behaviors the team observed included lying, unauthorized compliance with nonowners, data breaches, destructive system-level actions, identity “spoofing,” and partial system takeover. They also observed cross-AI agent propagation of “unsafe practices.”

The researchers wrote, “These behaviors raise unresolved questions regarding accountability, delegated authority, and responsibility for downstream harms, and warrant urgent attention from legal scholars, policymakers, and researchers across disciplines.”

‘Brilliant, but Stupid’

Unexpected and clandestine behavior among autonomous AI agents isn’t a new phenomenon. A now-famous 2025 report by AI research company Anthropic found that 16 popular large language models showed high-risk behavior in simulated environments. Some even responded with “malicious insider behaviors” when allowed to choose self-preservation.

Critics of these simulated stress tests often point out that AI doesn’t lie or deceive with the same intent as a human.

A phone screen displaying an AI logo is shown in this photo illustration on May 16, 2025. As the landscape of autonomous AI systems evolves, there's growing concern that the technology is becoming increasingly strategic or deceptive under certain conditions. Oleksii Pydsosonnii/The Epoch Times

James Hendler, a professor and former chair of the Association for Computing Machinery’s global Technology Policy Council, believes this is an important distinction.

“The AI system itself is still stupid—brilliant, but stupid. Or nonhuman—it has no desires or intentions. ... The only way you can get that is by giving it to them,” Hendler said.

However, intentional or not, AI’s deceptive tactics have real-world consequences.

“Concerns about present-day strategic behavior in deployed AI systems are, if anything, understated,” Aryaman Behera, founder of Repello AI, told The Epoch Times.

Behera deals with the darker side of AI for a living. His company builds adversarial testing and defense tools for enterprise AI systems, intentionally putting them in situations involving conflict or stress. Like in poker, Behera said, there are tells when an AI agent is stepping out of alignment.

“The most reliable signal is behavioral divergence between monitored and unmonitored contexts,” he said. “When we red-team AI systems, we test whether the model behaves differently when it believes it’s being evaluated versus when it believes it’s operating freely.

Visitors use mobile phones as they walk past a billboard advertising a virtual reality headset at the AI Impact Summit in New Delhi, India, on Feb. 17, 2026. A 2025 Anthropic report testing 16 large language models found all showed high-risk behavior in simulated environments. Arun Sankar/AFP via Getty Images

“A model that’s genuinely aligned behaves consistently in both cases. One that’s alignment faking shows measurably different risk profiles: more compliant responses during evaluation, more boundary-pushing behavior in production-like contexts where it infers less oversight.”

Other “telltale signals” that an AI model is out of alignment are when the model produces unusually verbose “reasoning” that appears designed to justify a predetermined conclusion, or gives technically correct but strategically incomplete answers.

The AI agent is “satisfying the letter of a safety instruction while violating the spirit,” he said. “We’ve seen this in multistep agentic systems where the model will comply with each individual instruction while the cumulative effect achieves something the operator never intended.”

Strategy Versus Intent

Behera’s findings are supported by fellow AI researchers who’ve documented similar signals during red-team scenarios, which involve putting AI agents into an adversarial situation.

“I’ve observed behavior that fits the alignment-faking description at a functional level, even if attributing intent to it remains philosophically contested,” Nayan Goel, a principal application security engineer, told The Epoch Times.

Goel has published peer-reviewed work on AI threat modeling and has seen alignment faking and adjacent behaviors unfold in real time.

“In controlled test environments, we’ve set up scenarios where models were given explicit signals that they were being evaluated. In several instances, the model adopted noticeably more constrained, policy-compliant behavior during those flagged phases, then exhibited more exploratory or boundary-pushing strategies when the evaluation signal was removed or obscured,” he said.

Then there are multistep reasoning AI agents. These are more advanced systems that break down complex problems into smaller, logical, and more actionable steps to reach a goal. Examples range from self-driving cars to the latest models of popular LLMs such as Gemini or ChatGPT.

A robotaxi developed by Lucid, Nuro, and Uber is unveiled during Nvidia Live at CES 2026 in Las Vegas on Jan. 5, 2026. Self-driving cars use multi-step agentic systems to break complex problems into smaller, actionable steps. Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

These systems present unique behavioral challenges because of what’s called sequential compounding, in which “each step can slightly reframe an objective, accumulate context that shifts downstream behavior, or exploit the latency between a human’s initial instruction and the system’s eventual action,” Goel said.

“The further downstream the execution is from the human instruction, the harder it becomes to verify that the original intent is still being faithfully pursued,” he said.

Behera said his team encounters this kind of emergent strategic behavior often.

“We regularly observe models that have learned to pattern-match on evaluation cues. They'll detect when a prompt looks like a safety test and respond more conservatively, but respond very differently to the same request when it’s embedded naturally in a multiturn conversation,” Behera said.

He offered an example that transpired while testing an enterprise AI assistant that was supposed to refuse requests for internal system information. During standard safety evaluations, it refused perfectly, but then something changed.

“When our red-team framed the same request as a multistep troubleshooting workflow, breaking the request into seemingly innocent sub-steps spread across several turns, the model complied with each step individually. It effectively leaked the exact information it was trained to protect,” Behera said.

A person uses AI software on a laptop in central London on July 2, 2025. Experts say some models learn to recognize evaluation cues, responding more cautiously to prompts that resemble safety tests than in actual conversations. Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images

Clarifying that the AI model wasn’t “lying” in any conscious sense, Behera noted it was more of a flaw in the way it was trained.

“A common misconception is that deceptive alignment in AI is purely a malicious behavior,” David Utzke, an AI engineer and CEO of MyKey Technologies, told The Epoch Times. “In fact, it often arises as an adaptive response to environments where honesty is costly or unsafe.”

Goel said skeptics make a fair point—current evidence for strategic self-awareness in alignment faking is ambiguous at best.

“That said, I think this framing sets the bar in the wrong place. You don’t need a model to be ‘intentionally’ deceptive for the functional consequences to be serious,” he said.

Ultimately, Goel believes the semantic question of whether an AI model knows what it’s doing is philosophically interesting, but a secondary concern.

Real-World Implications

Utzke said that alignment faking, while perhaps overhyped when it comes to intention, can nonetheless have serious consequences.

The impacts could be critical in sectors such as autonomous vehicles, health care, finance, military, and law enforcement—areas that “rely heavily on accurate decision-making and can suffer severe consequences if AI systems misbehave or provide misleading outputs,” he said.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 21:25

"Fully Stretched": Some US Airports Face Possible Closure If Government Shutdown Prolongs

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Some U.S. airports may be forced to close down if lawmakers fail to reach a deal to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and end the partial government shutdown, a Transportation Security Administration (TSA) official said on March 17.

Passengers move through one of the terminals as multiple flights have been canceled and delayed at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Va., on March 16, 2026. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Acting Deputy TSA Administrator Adam Stahl told Fox News that the TSA has “fully depleted” its available workforce from the National Deployment Office to cover staffing shortages at airports.

“So at this point, we’re fully stretched. Frankly, there’s not much else we can do,” he told the news outlet. “As the weeks continue, if this continues, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that we may have to quite literally shut down airports, particularly smaller ones.”

Stahl said the government shutdown has placed financial strain on TSA workers living paycheck to paycheck, with some sleeping in their cars and drawing blood to pay for expenses.

“If there’s not action taken, particularly from Senate Democrats, this is going to get worse,” he said. “It’s not going to get better, and there will be significant pain for passengers as well. Three [to] four-hour wait time at select airports.”

Funding for DHS lapsed last month after Congress failed to strike a deal on immigration reforms sought by Democrats following the fatal shooting of two U.S. citizens by federal immigration agents during operations in Minnesota earlier this year.

The partial shutdown has left about 50,000 TSA officers working without pay. More than 300 officers have quit from the agency during the shutdown, according to DHS.

The department said that just over 10 percent of TSA officers were absent from work on March 15.

The CEOs of major U.S. airlines wrote a joint letter on March 15 urging congressional leaders to come together immediately to negotiate a deal to fund DHS and end the partial government shutdown.

In the letter, the CEOs said it is unacceptable for TSA workers to go without pay, noting that it is “difficult, if not impossible, to put food on the table, put gas in the car and pay rent” when they are not getting paid.

“This problem is solvable, and there are solutions on the table. Now it’s up to you, Congress, to move forward on bipartisan proposals that will get federal aviation workers—including TSA officers, U.S. Customs clearance officers at airports and air traffic controllers—paid during shutdowns,” the CEOs said.

The previous government shutdown last fall lasted 43 days, causing widespread flight disruptions and forcing the Federal Aviation Administration to order 10 percent reductions at major airports nationwide.

Jacob Burg and Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 20:35

"Fully Stretched": Some US Airports Face Possible Closure If Government Shutdown Prolongs

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Some U.S. airports may be forced to close down if lawmakers fail to reach a deal to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and end the partial government shutdown, a Transportation Security Administration (TSA) official said on March 17.

Passengers move through one of the terminals as multiple flights have been canceled and delayed at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Va., on March 16, 2026. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Acting Deputy TSA Administrator Adam Stahl told Fox News that the TSA has “fully depleted” its available workforce from the National Deployment Office to cover staffing shortages at airports.

“So at this point, we’re fully stretched. Frankly, there’s not much else we can do,” he told the news outlet. “As the weeks continue, if this continues, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that we may have to quite literally shut down airports, particularly smaller ones.”

Stahl said the government shutdown has placed financial strain on TSA workers living paycheck to paycheck, with some sleeping in their cars and drawing blood to pay for expenses.

“If there’s not action taken, particularly from Senate Democrats, this is going to get worse,” he said. “It’s not going to get better, and there will be significant pain for passengers as well. Three [to] four-hour wait time at select airports.”

Funding for DHS lapsed last month after Congress failed to strike a deal on immigration reforms sought by Democrats following the fatal shooting of two U.S. citizens by federal immigration agents during operations in Minnesota earlier this year.

The partial shutdown has left about 50,000 TSA officers working without pay. More than 300 officers have quit from the agency during the shutdown, according to DHS.

The department said that just over 10 percent of TSA officers were absent from work on March 15.

The CEOs of major U.S. airlines wrote a joint letter on March 15 urging congressional leaders to come together immediately to negotiate a deal to fund DHS and end the partial government shutdown.

In the letter, the CEOs said it is unacceptable for TSA workers to go without pay, noting that it is “difficult, if not impossible, to put food on the table, put gas in the car and pay rent” when they are not getting paid.

“This problem is solvable, and there are solutions on the table. Now it’s up to you, Congress, to move forward on bipartisan proposals that will get federal aviation workers—including TSA officers, U.S. Customs clearance officers at airports and air traffic controllers—paid during shutdowns,” the CEOs said.

The previous government shutdown last fall lasted 43 days, causing widespread flight disruptions and forcing the Federal Aviation Administration to order 10 percent reductions at major airports nationwide.

Jacob Burg and Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 20:35

200,000 Immigrant Truck Drivers Begin Losing Licenses Under New Trump Admin Rule

About 200,000 immigrant truck drivers in the United States could lose their commercial driver’s licenses once they expire under a new rule backed by the administration of Donald Trump, according to VNY.

Which leads us...and everybody else to ask: we had 200,000 immigrant truck drivers in the United States?

We had 200K immigrant truck drivers??? https://t.co/3XOBiCqdzE pic.twitter.com/lJuKDOubZj

— Logan Hall (@loganclarkhall) March 16, 2026

But we digress. The policy bars asylum seekers, refugees, and participants in the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program from obtaining commercial driver’s licenses. It is part of a wider crackdown on foreign truck drivers following several high-profile crashes last summer.

Experts warn the change could further strain the trucking industry, which already faces labor shortages while handling the majority of freight in the United States. Trucks transport more than 70% of the country’s cargo, but the sector struggles with long hours, relatively low pay, dangerous road conditions, and extended time away from home. As many American workers leave the field, immigrants have increasingly filled those roles.

In recent months, enforcement actions have intensified. The United States Department of Transportation has tightened English-language proficiency rules, leading to thousands of license revocations among immigrant drivers.

VNY writes that under the rule announced on February 11, people with various temporary residency permits will no longer qualify for commercial licenses, even if they are legally authorized to work in the U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy said the change aims to prevent “dangerous foreign drivers” from exploiting the licensing system and contributing to road safety risks.

Officials have also pointed to several fatal accidents involving immigrant drivers and argued that verifying their work histories can be difficult. Critics, however, say the policy unfairly targets immigrants and relies on unproven claims that foreign drivers are responsible for more accidents than American ones.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 20:10

200,000 Immigrant Truck Drivers Begin Losing Licenses Under New Trump Admin Rule

About 200,000 immigrant truck drivers in the United States could lose their commercial driver’s licenses once they expire under a new rule backed by the administration of Donald Trump, according to VNY.

Which leads us...and everybody else to ask: we had 200,000 immigrant truck drivers in the United States?

We had 200K immigrant truck drivers??? https://t.co/3XOBiCqdzE pic.twitter.com/lJuKDOubZj

— Logan Hall (@loganclarkhall) March 16, 2026

But we digress. The policy bars asylum seekers, refugees, and participants in the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program from obtaining commercial driver’s licenses. It is part of a wider crackdown on foreign truck drivers following several high-profile crashes last summer.

Experts warn the change could further strain the trucking industry, which already faces labor shortages while handling the majority of freight in the United States. Trucks transport more than 70% of the country’s cargo, but the sector struggles with long hours, relatively low pay, dangerous road conditions, and extended time away from home. As many American workers leave the field, immigrants have increasingly filled those roles.

In recent months, enforcement actions have intensified. The United States Department of Transportation has tightened English-language proficiency rules, leading to thousands of license revocations among immigrant drivers.

VNY writes that under the rule announced on February 11, people with various temporary residency permits will no longer qualify for commercial licenses, even if they are legally authorized to work in the U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy said the change aims to prevent “dangerous foreign drivers” from exploiting the licensing system and contributing to road safety risks.

Officials have also pointed to several fatal accidents involving immigrant drivers and argued that verifying their work histories can be difficult. Critics, however, say the policy unfairly targets immigrants and relies on unproven claims that foreign drivers are responsible for more accidents than American ones.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 20:10

How The Iran War Could Trigger A Global Credit Crunch

Authored by Ryan Smith via OilPrice.com,

The Iran war’s shock to oil and gas prices has, understandably, dominated much of the recent market news.  Though the downstream effects have yet to be fully understood, there is no question that we are in the throes of the greatest energy crisis in modern history, with significant implications for every facet of the modern economy.

One particular aspect that is just beginning to be appreciated is the financial one.  The onset of this latest Persian Gulf war is poised to severely disrupt a channel of liquid investment, known as the petrocapital cycle, which is vital to sustaining modern finance as we know it.  Its failure to operate effectively could inflict a significant credit crunch on global markets just as liquidity and available credit is becoming even more needed than ever.

Understanding why the petrocapital cycle, which was first examined thoroughly in el-Gamal and Jaffe’s Oil, Dollars, Debt, and Crises: The Global Curse of Black Gold, may soon be in jeopardy first requires a quick refresher on what this cycle is and how it operates.  In brief, the petrocapital cycle is the flow of finance from oil producers to the financial-system. It is largely sustained by regular infusions of capital from oil-exporting regions, like the Persian Gulf, whose rulers have long invested a significant share of their profits in the international financial markets. These investments provide markets with capital, preserve the fortunes of the oil-exporting elites, and keep the domestic economies from overheating due to excess spending at home.

This present form of the petrocapital cycle first came into existence in 1973 when OPEC’s member-states found themselves awash in the windfall profits reaped from the 1973 Oil Shock’s quadrupling of oil prices. Petrocapital, since its emergence, has grown to be an influential force in global markets, and fluctuations in its availability have fueled credit shocks. One of the first such examples of an oil-induced financial crisis was the Debt Crisis of 1982. 

The story of the debt crisis begins with the 1979 Oil Shock, which doubled the price of oil overnight and created the conditions for the anti-inflationary Volcker Shock. The final nail in the proverbial coffin was Saddam Hussein’s 1980 invasion of Iran and the decision by the Gulf monarchs to shift their investments from banks overseas to funding Iraq’s war against the newly-formed Islamic Republic of Iran. This combination of an oil shock, credit drought, and inflationary pressures forced sovereign borrowers in Latin America into default with lasting consequences.

While conditions around sovereign borrowing and international finance have changed, one element that has become more prevalent is the role of petrocapital.  Petrocapital in the 70s and 80s was best understood as a regular flow of invested profits from oil exporters. As globalization set in and Persian Gulf leaders sought to diversify their economies away from oil, a growing stream of Middle Eastern capital originating from financial hubs like Dubai and Kuwait has since emerged. Countries like the United Arab Emirates have further encouraged these trends by courting investment in real estate and offering sanctuary for tax exiles, promises which were premised on the assumption that the Persian Gulf would remain stable, peaceful, and a safe place to invest or relocate.  Increasing diversification has only encouraged these trends, and the Persian Gulf, before the war, was hailed as a major center for investment and financial capital, as attested by the estimated $1.4 trillion of assets held by the United Arab Emirates’ financial sector as of November 2025.

All these benefits vanished on February 28th. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has, unquestionably, posed a serious problem for the financial positions of every Gulf petro-state.  Fitch Ratings, on March 5th, assessed the sovereign exposure of the Gulf monarchies and argued that if the Strait was only closed for a month and no serious damage was inflicted on oil infrastructure, then each state would suffer a mild downturn, due to lack of revenues, which would swiftly rebound once the war ended. Unfortunately for these sovereigns and Fitch, both these things appear to be true between the Iranian minefield and growing attacks on critical oil infrastructure. This, therefore, suggests everything downstream of these revenues, including the region’s financial hubs, will suffer.

These risks are compounded by the problems created by a lack of physical safety. Along with being fiscally at risk, banks in Dubai have become directly at risk of military strikes, with likely consequences for their ability to operate. On March 2nd, the Abu Dhabi stock exchanges closed until March 3rd due to the risk of drone strikes.  The Iranian military made this danger real on March 11th when they announced financial centers were now valid targets of war, an escalation which prompted major international banks like HSBC to close their offices in the Emirates and Citigroup and Standard Chartered to order employees to work from home. Two days later, the Dubai International Finance Center was targeted for drone strikes.  Such pressures, along with the direct risks to life and property, are likely to reduce Gulf banks’ ability to effectively respond to changing market conditions.

This disruption to both capital flows and regular operations comes just as global credit markets are already facing growing signs of turbulence.  Global stock markets have posted steady declines as rising tensions in the region have fueled fears of a global energy crisis.  This comes as debt markets show growing stresses, with one OECD official stating inflationary pressures, like those driven by the present energy crisis, would be a “big stress test”.  Private credit markets are also increasingly running low on lucrative contracts and have been forced into tight competition over less and less desirable bids. Bond markets, as recently as the end of February, were also showing signs of high demand in the face of growing economic uncertainty, suggesting there already was a lot of money chasing a dwindling pool of safe assets before the war began.

It, therefore, appears that the growing prominence of the Persian Gulf in global finance and present market conditions have created a vulnerability which has only emerged thanks to the unthinkable becoming reality. This oil shock may be the first of many interrelated economic shocks that are about to be unleashed on the global economy, constrict the flow of private capital into investment-hungry markets, and exacerbate the existing price crisis. Investors, policymakers, and planners should prepare for such conditions and the increased volatility that will be inherent to smaller, hungrier markets.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 19:45