Zero Hedge

RFK Jr. Says Officials 'Revolutionizing The Vaccine Injury Compensation Program'

RFK Jr. Says Officials 'Revolutionizing The Vaccine Injury Compensation Program'

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Federal officials are working on revamping the program that provides compensation for people who suffer injuries from vaccines, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said on June 30.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington on June 24, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

We just brought a guy in this week who is going to be revolutionizing the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program,” Kennedy said during an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson.

The National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program was established as part of the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act of 1986. That law also granted vaccine manufacturers immunity from lawsuits. Under the program, injury claims are lodged with judges, who decide whether to grant payouts after hearing from petitioners and the government.

Department of Justice attorneys, representing the Department of Health and Human Services—the department Kennedy heads—often present evidence opposing the claims.

The program has since 2006 awarded money, drawn from surcharges on vaccines to more than 13,000 people.

Claims of injury from COVID-19 vaccines are currently filed with the Countermeasures Injury Compensation Program, a separate program established by a 2005 law. The Department of Health solely administers that program by receiving petitions, analyzing them, and making determinations, creating what researchers said in 2022 was a potential conflict of interest.

The department has rejected claims from some people whose doctors diagnosed them with vaccine injuries, The Epoch Times reported in 2023. Just 39 COVID-19 vaccine claims have been compensated as of June 1, with all but four receiving less than $9,000.

Multiple lawmakers and lawyers have advocated moving COVID-19 vaccines to the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program so that people with injuries have a better chance of receiving compensation and, if they’re paid, can receive more money.

We’re looking at ways to enlarge that program so that COVID-vaccine-injured people can be compensated,” Kennedy told Carlson.

Kennedy also said officials are looking at methods to enlarge the statute of limitations, which is currently only three years.

A lot of people don’t discover their injuries until after that,” he said.

“And there’s no discovery in that program, there’s no rules of evidence. The program has devolved into lawyers from the justice—you’re not suing the vaccine company, you’re petitioning my agency, and it’s represented traditionally by the Department of Justice—and the lawyers in the Department of Justice, the leaders of it were corrupt, and ... they saw their job as protecting the trust fund rather than taking care of people who made this national sacrifice. And we’re going to change all that.”

The Department of Justice did not respond to a request for comment.

Safety of mRNA

Carlson asked Kennedy later about whether he’s satisfied that messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) technology is safe.

I am not satisfied,” Kennedy said. “My opinion about that is irrelevant, but we will be doing those studies, and I would say there’s a lot of skepticism in this agency about mRNA vaccines.”

Two of the three vaccines against COVID-19 utilize mRNA technology, while regulators with the Food and Drug Administration, a division of Kennedy’s department, recently approved a third for certain populations. They said the vaccine protects against COVID-19 and that recipients have a small chance of suffering side effects.

Regulators previously approved the two existing vaccines after clinical trials found they conferred shielding against COVID-19. Participants who received a vaccine were more likely to experience adverse events such as headaches.

Some additional safety issues have since been identified, including heart inflammation.

Kennedy said that safety studies “simply have not been done, but there is [sic] enough anecdotal reports of people getting profound injuries that may or may not be associated with it, and we’re going to answer those questions.”

A Department of Health and Human Services spokesperson told The Epoch Times in May that “mRNA technology remains under-tested” and has been linked to “legitimate safety concerns.”

The vaccine manufacturers have maintained that their vaccines are safe and effective.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 13:20

Not Just The EPA: Despite Warnings, Biden's Energy Department Disbursed $42 Billion In Its Final Hours

Not Just The EPA: Despite Warnings, Biden's Energy Department Disbursed $42 Billion In Its Final Hours

Authored by James Varney via RealClearInvestigations,

In its last two working days, the Biden administration’s Energy Department signed off on nearly $42 billion for green energy projects – a sum that exceeded the total amount its Loan Programs Office (LPO) had put out in the past decade.

The frenzied activity on Jan. 16 and 17, 2025, capped a spending binge that saw the LPO approve at least $93 billion in current and future disbursements after Vice President Kamala Harris lost the 2024 election in November, according to documents provided by the department to RealClearInvestigations. It appears that Biden officials were rushing to deploy billions in approved funding in anticipation that the incoming Trump administration would seek to redirect uncommitted money away from clean energy projects.

The agreements were made despite a warning from the department’s inspector general, urging the loan office to suspend operations in December over concerns that post-election loans could present conflicts of interest. 

In just a few months, some of the deals have already become dicey, leading to fears that the Biden administration has created multiple Solyndras, the green energy company that went bankrupt after the Obama administration gave it $570 million. These deals include:

  • Sunnova, a rooftop solar outfit that thus far had $382 million of its $3.3 billion loan guaranteed, filed for bankruptcy this month. The company did not respond to a request for comment.
  • Li-Cycle, a battery recycling facility, had a $445 million loan approved in November, but since then, the company was put up for sale and has filed for bankruptcy. The Energy Department said no money has been disbursed on that deal. Li-Cycle did not respond to a request for comment.
  • A $705 million loan was approved on Jan. 17 for Zum Energy, an electric school bus company in California, and its “Project Marigold.” At $350,000 and more, electric school buses currently cost more than twice as much as their diesel counterparts. So far, Zum has received $21.7 million from the government, according to usaspending.gov. The company did not respond to a request for comment.
  • A $9.63 billion Blue Oval SK loan on Jan. 16 was the second largest post-election deal, topped only by a $15 billion loan the next day to Pacific Gas & Electric, with most of that for renewables. The Blue Oval project in Kentucky – a joint venture between Ford Motor Co. and a South Korean entity – has been dealing with numerous workplace complaints, and construction of a second EV battery manufacturing plant there has been delayed. More than $7 billion has been obligated on that deal, according to the Energy Department. Blue Oval did not respond to a request for comment.

The money and the hasty way in which it was earmarked have drawn the attention of the Trump administration. “It is extremely concerning how many dozens of billions of dollars were rushed out the door without proper due diligence in the final days of the Biden administration,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a statement to RCI. “DOE is undertaking a thorough review of financial assistance that identifies waste of taxpayer dollars.”

The enormous sums came from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which injected $400 billion into the LPO, a previously sleepy Energy Department branch originally intended to spur nuclear energy projects. That total represented more than 10 times the amount the LPO had ever committed in any fiscal year of its existence. Prior to the post-election blowout, the office’s biggest fiscal year was 2024, when it committed $34.8 billion, records show.

Even with the rush to push billions out the door in its last months, close to $300 billion of the Inflation Reduction Act money remains uncommitted by the LPO. Trump administration officials have already nixed some smaller deals. Secretary Wright recently urged Congress to keep the money in place as the LPO now aims to use it to further the Trump administration’s energy policy, particularly with nuclear projects.

That unprecedented gusher of cash from the LPO echoes the efforts of the Biden administration’s Environmental Protection Agency to push $20 billion out the door before it left office. As RCI has previously reported, the EPA – which had never been a consequential grant-making operation – was tasked with awarding $27 billion in Inflation Reduction Act funding through the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund and Solar For All programs. It did so in less than six months in 2024, including an unorthodox arrangement in which Biden officials parked some $20 billion outside the Treasury’s control. That money was earmarked for a handful of nonprofits, some of which had skimpy assets and were linked with politically connected directors.

The LPO’s post-election bonanza was put together in even less time. The Energy Department deals, however, involve mostly for-profit enterprises, which raises questions about whether the Biden administration was propping up companies that would not have survived in the private marketplace. Should any of the companies hit it big in the future, shareholders could get rich, while taxpayers will receive only the interest on the loan.

The loan office should not be in the virtual venture business,” said Mark Mills, executive director of the National Center on Energy Analytics. “But in a few cases, it could make sense to serve as a catalyst or backstop for viable and important projects from a national security or policy perspective.”

RCI spoke with several Trump administration officials who declined to comment on the record, given the extensive ongoing review of both the LPO’s post-election arrangements and other Energy Department projects linked to Biden’s climate agenda.

They wanted to get the billions to companies that probably wouldn’t exist unless they could get money from the government,” one current official said. “The business plans, such as they were, were ‘how do we secure capital from the government?’”

During Biden’s tenure, the office was run by Jigar Shah, who on June 17 was named to the board of directors of the nonprofit Center for Sustainable Energy. Bloomberg News reported last month that Shah “helped select roughly 400 companies with development plans to receive grants and loans upwards of $100 million each.” In response to the Trump administration’s pushback on green subsidies, Bloomberg reported that Shah is working to help some of the companies he bankrolled shift operations to Europe.

The Center relies chiefly on government contracts instead of donations, and it saw that revenue jump from $274.1 million in 2023 to more than $500 million in 2024, according to tax records. The center did not respond to a request to speak with Shah.

Thus far, no entity has received the entire amount of the deals the Biden administration struck since last November, according to the Energy Department and usaspending.gov. In a handful of cases, companies have come to the current administration and opted out of the deals.

Still, millions of taxpayer dollars have already been distributed, in some instances, to deals the department listed as “conditional commitments.”  Wright has said there are “reasons to be worried and suspicious” about the post-election binge, and vowed some of the deals will be scrubbed. 

In 2023, the Biden administration made subtle changes to the LPO’s regulations, cutting strings and stipulations that traditionally attach to loans. Consequently, the office cut deals after the election on terms more favorable to the recipient than the taxpayer, and in several cases, making a “conditional commitment” the same as a loan, according to Trump officials. The changes also moved money that a later administration could have cut into “obligated” silos, making the deals harder to cancel, according to the current Energy Department.

Essentially, they had the Loan Program Office operating like a graveyard energy venture capital fund,” one Trump official told RCI. “This was all tied to the religious fervor for any green energy project in the prior administration, and the goal was not to get the government repaid but to advance the ‘green new deal.’”

The $93 billion under review represents a separate “green bank” from smaller Biden administration deals that the Energy Department has already canceled. Last month, the Government Accounting Office said the department was not on track to “issue loans and guarantees before billions of dollars of new funding expires.”

As part of the review, Wright issued policy guidelines in May that he said offer more protection to taxpayers. The department may now require significantly more information from loan recipients and applicants, such as “a project’s financial health, a project’s technological and engineering viability, market conditions, compliance with award terms and conditions and compliance with legal requirements, including those related to national security.”

The department declined to provide the terms of specific deals, again citing the ongoing review. Trump administration officials claim the business plans for many of these deals were threadbare, that term sheets were essentially tossed out, and the entire process could be described, in the words of a Biden EPA official in December, as “throwing gold bars” off the Titanic “as an insurance policy against Trump winning.”

Despite these dubious outcomes and the alleged removal of taxpayer protections that accompanied the deals, Trump administration officials said they remain committed to the LPO. The office has a valuable role to play in fulfilling energy policy goals, which include nuclear projects, strengthening the nation’s power grid, and limiting the U.S. reliance on Chinese supply chains for key minerals and elements.

“It’s as if you went away and the kids threw a rager in the house,” one official told RCI. “You may need some new furniture and the like, but it’s still a really nice home. The Office can be a critical resource for the manufacturing base of this country, and our goal is not to end the LPO but to improve it.”

The Trump administration could face some of the same financial issues if it rejiggers the LPO along lines that support its energy policy goals, particularly within the nuclear industry. Projects there have been marred by unprofitable plants and massive cost overruns and delays in construction, making federal loans to the section inherently risky. 

Prominent voices – and investors –  like Bill Gates have also encouraged the government to back new sources of energy and minerals. Geothermal projects are one such field, and there appears to be bipartisan support in Washington for capital that will shore up U.S. energy independence. On Jan. 15, the Biden administration approved a $1.2 billion “conditional commitment” with a subsidiary of EnergySource Minerals LLC (ESM), which hopes to extract lithium from geothermal brine.

A deal with ioneer Ltd. appears to match some of the professed goals of the Trump administration, but it has also been plagued by financial setbacks since Biden’s LPO approved it in its final days. The company's deal grew from an original $700 million "conditional commitment" in 2023, to the $996 million approved on Jan. 17, 2025."

The Rhyolite Ridge project is a mining and manufacturing center in Nevada to produce lithium and boron. Those elements have implications for defense and national security in addition to energy, according to ioneer Vice President Chad Yeftich. 

“Ioneer believes government policy should encourage projects if we want critical minerals developed domestically,” Yeftich said. “Time is the key risk for development as China continues to provide financial support to its critical minerals industry and dump critical minerals into the market thereby depressing the price.”

Yeftich noted Rhyolite Ridge has secured $200 million in private capital, but in February, its chief private equity partner broke ties with the project. Finance professionals familiar with big deals told RCI that such a rupture so close in timing to the loan would likely deep-six the arrangement, but Trump officials said Biden’s LPO stripped such boilerplate language from many of the post-election deals. 

Secretary Wright told RCI that these maneuvers suggested the previous administration was more interested in disbursing funds than protecting taxpayers. “Any reputable business would have a process in place for evaluating spending and investments before money goes out the door, and the American people deserve no less from their federal government.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 12:40

July 4th Gas Prices Lowest In 4 Years

July 4th Gas Prices Lowest In 4 Years

Authored by Wesley Brown via The Epoch Times,

Nearly 72 million people are expected to travel during the Fourth of July holiday, likely leading to crowded highway traffic and congested airports across the United States. However, holiday travelers should also see lower gas prices and airfares as they go to their Independence Day destinations, experts say.

Nationally, AAA Travel, the travel‐services arm of the American Automobile Association, forecasts that 72.2 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home during the Independence Day holiday period from June 28 to July 6. This year’s domestic travel projection is 1.7 million more travelers than last year and 7 million more than in 2019.

“Summertime is one of the busiest travel seasons of the year, and July 4th is one of the most popular times to get away,” Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel, said.

“Following Memorial Day’s record forecast, AAA is seeing strong demand for road trips and air travel over Independence Day week. With the holiday falling on a Friday, travelers have the option of making it a long weekend or taking the entire week to make memories with family and friends.”

AAA’s annual Independence Day forecast now includes two weekends instead of one, better reflecting the flow of holiday travelers, officials said. However, the U.S. Transportation Security Administration’s travel projections for the airline industry run from July 1 through July 7, with the highest passenger volume—about 2.9 million—expected on July 6.

According to Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officials, airports across the United States expect the highest passenger numbers ever for the nation’s 249th birthday. TSA staff at airports nationwide said they are prepared to screen more than 18.5 million travelers at the country’s security checkpoints.

Already on June 22, the TSA reported that it screened nearly 3.1 million travelers, the busiest single day number in the agency’s history, and more than 40 days after REAL ID enforcement came into full force at airport checkpoints nationwide on May 7.

“TSA continues to work closely with our industry partners and ensure our airport security checkpoints are fully staffed and prepared to handle the heavy rush of traffic,” TSA acting Administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill said in a statement provided to The Epoch Times.

“We are deploying technologies and procedures to improve security and enhance the passenger experience, including for families. We ask travelers to pack their patience, especially during peak travel days, as we work to provide maximum hospitality to our customers,” McNeil said, noting that nearly 94 percent of passengers are presenting a REAL ID or another acceptable form of ID to travel domestically in the United States.

Ahead of the holiday travel season, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is predicting the busiest Fourth of July week in 15 years, with July 3 expected to see more than 51,000 domestic and international flights. Airlines for America (A4A) is also forecasting another record-breaking summer travel season, projecting that the nation’s top airlines will carry 272 million passengers from June 1 through August 31.

To accommodate this demand, A4A spokeswoman Amanda Maile told The Epoch Times that U.S. airlines are operating 27,000 flights daily—up by 4 percent from last year.

“Premium and international demand this summer are expected to remain strong, with the top foreign destinations for U.S. airlines projected to be Mexico, Canada, Dominican Republic, United Kingdom and Italy,” she said.

Meanwhile, U.S. motorists on the busy highways will notice slightly higher gas prices compared to a month ago, but still significantly lower than the Fourth of July travel period in 2024, according to AAA’s weekly gas price report.

As of this week, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is $3.22, five cents more than a month ago before crude oil prices started rising again after U.S. airstrikes targeted Iran nuclear facilities.

However, pump prices remain 27 cents cheaper than this time last year and the lowest for the July 4th weekend since 2021...

The nation’s 10 most expensive gasoline markets are California ($4.62), Hawaii ($4.47), Washington ($4.45), Oregon ($4.06), Nevada ($3.81), Alaska ($3.74), Illinois ($3.49), Idaho ($3.43), Pennsylvania ($3.39), and Utah ($3.37).

The 10 least expensive markets are Mississippi ($2.73), Oklahoma ($2.81), Texas ($2.82), Tennessee ($2.82), Louisiana ($2.82), Arkansas ($2.83), Alabama ($2.84), Missouri ($2.85), South Carolina ($2.91), and Kansas ($2.91).

For electric vehicle drivers, the national average price per kilowatt-hour of electricity at a public EV charging station remained steady this past week at 36 cents, according to AAA data.

The top 10 most expensive states for EV charging rates per hour are West Virginia (51 cents), Alaska (51 cents), Tennessee (47 cents), Montana (46 cents), Hawaii (45 cents), North Dakota (42 cents), New Hampshire (42 cents), Kentucky (42 cents), South Carolina (42 cents), and Louisiana (42 cents).

The nation’s top 10 least expensive states for EV rates during the holiday are Kansas (26 cents), Missouri (27 cents), Maryland (27 cents), Nebraska (30 cents), Delaware (30 cents), Utah (30 cents), Iowa (32 cents), Washington, D.C. (32 cents), Colorado (33 cents), and North Carolina (33 cents).

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 11:25

Trump Announces Trade Deal With Vietnam; Includes 20% Tariffs, 40% Tax On Transshipping

Trump Announces Trade Deal With Vietnam; Includes 20% Tariffs, 40% Tax On Transshipping

With just one week left until the July 9 trade deal deadline, which some suspect could have a similar adverse impact on markets as the first Liberation Day - even if stocks are completely oblivious to the risk - moments ago Trump gave a stark reminder just how high the trade stakes are when he announced that the US has made a trade deal with Vietnam.

According to the terms, Vietnam will pay the United States:

  • 20% Tariff on any and all goods sent into our Territory,
  • 40% Tariff on any Transshipping, which is squarely aimed at China which uses Vietnam as a reshipment/tolling hub.  

Of the two, one can argue that the transshipment clause is more important because in recent weeks China had threatened that any country that makes a deal with the US at its expense would make it very angry. Which means that Xi is now terribly vexed. 


 

In any case, in return for the tariffs, Trump said that "Vietnam will do something that they have never done before, give the United States of America TOTAL ACCESS to their Markets for Trade. In other words, they will “OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES,” meaning that, we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff."

Which is hardly a big deal, since the US barely exports to Vietnam.

what does matter is that a deal has been struck however, and now many other Asian countries will scramble to do the same, even if it is at terms that antagonize China (like in this case). Amusingly,  Trump said that as a result of the deal, US SUVs will be a "wonderful addition" to various product lines within Vietnam.

It is my opinion that the SUV or, as it is sometimes referred to, Large Engine Vehicle, which does so well in the United States, will be a wonderful addition to the various product lines within Vietnam. Dealing with General Secretary To Lam, which I did personally, was an absolute pleasure. 

While stocks initially dipped on seeing the 20% print, they have since rebounded and recovered all losses, and trade at session highs, as algos remain completely oblivious that behind the scenes, huge tension is once again building up between the US and China, which is negotiating deals that Beijing will view as offensive, making the odds of an actual trade deal with Beijing much lower than most expect. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 11:04

Centene Crashes Most On Record, Sparks Selloff In Managed Care Stocks

Centene Crashes Most On Record, Sparks Selloff In Managed Care Stocks

Update (1100ET):

Centene, one of the largest health insurers in the U.S., crashed in early trading in New York after withdrawing its 2025 guidance, citing new data from an independent actuarial firm that revealed weaker-than-expected trends in its Affordable Care Act marketplaces and mounting Medicaid costs.

Shares in New York crashed as much as 40% by 10:30 a.m. ET—marking the largest single-day decline in the stock's history. Centene first traded in its initial public offering on December 13, 2001, at $14 per share.

Roundtrip.

Latest analyst ratings via Bloomberg data.

Who owns the most of Centene stock?

Centene's shockwave sparked selling across the healthcare sector. 

*  *  * 

 

Centene shares crashed in premarket trading after the health insurer withdrew its 2025 guidance due to weaker-than-expected trends in the Affordable Care Act Marketplace and ongoing Medicaid cost pressures. The health insurer warned of a $1.8 billion earnings headwind, prompting downgrades from Wall Street

Centene, one of the largest health insurers in the U.S., disclosed on Tuesday evening new data from an independent actuarial firm, Wakely, covering about 72% of its ACA Marketplace membership, revealed significantly worse-than-expected results.

Wakely's data reveals:

  • Lower-than-expected market growth and

  • Much higher aggregate morbidity than Centene had assumed for its risk adjustment revenue.

As a result, Centene now preliminarily estimates a $1.8 billion reduction in its net risk adjustment revenue for 2025, translating into a $2.75 hit to adjusted diluted EPS. According to FactSet data, Wall Street analysts had expected full-year adjusted earnings of around $7.28 a share. 

"The Company does not have information or estimates for its remaining seven Marketplace states, but anticipates, due to the morbidity trends observed in the 22 states, an additional reduction to its net risk adjustment revenue transfer expectation with a corresponding adjusted diluted EPS impact," Centene stated in a press release.

Another industry bellwether, UnitedHealth, recently slashed its full-year guidance and replaced its chief executive. Higher-than-expected medical costs have sparked broader concerns across the entire insurance sector.

Analysts were full of gloom, with UBS cutting its rating on Centene to neutral, citing significantly weaker near-term earnings.

Here are first takes from Wall Street (courtesy of Bloomberg):

UBS (neutral)

  • UBS cuts Centene to neutral from buy immediately following the withdrawn guidance; broker now sees 2025/2026 EPS at $3.25, representing a 55% decline

  • "With the unexpected risk adjustment results in Marketplace and persistent Medicaid cost trends, the company's risk near term earnings has been significantly reduced"

JPMorgan (neutral)

  • Analyst John Stansel cuts to neutral from overweight following news; says new price target of $48 from €75 reflects estimated ACA headwinds as well as "incremental" Medicaid pressure, "assuming that CNC is able to reprice at least a portion of its book into 2026"

  • Says any information on Centene's approach to the ACA Marketplace in 2026 and recent regulatory changes will be key when company reports earnings on July 25

Barclays (equalweight)

  • Analyst Andrew Mok calls ACA update "materially negative;" says it comes after recently-received industry data that showed Centene's cited membership growth was lower than expected, "likely driven by integrity rules"

  • Adds that implied morbidity was "significantly higher" than Centene's expectations, driving an earnings headwind of as much as $1.8 billion for 2025, representing a $2.75 EPS impact

Jefferies (hold)

  • Analyst David Windley says Centene's move confirms Jefferies fears that the prior-year 2025 risk pool is "deteriorating and plans have mispriced the risk pool" with firms assuming healthy growth

  • "Investors should remember that CNC's risk adjustment is moving unfavorably because others' books are feeling claims pressure," Windley flags

Centene shares plunged as much as 27% in premarket trading in New York, hitting levels last seen in 2017. As of Tuesday's close, the stock was down roughly 6.5% year-to-date.

. . .

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 11:00

Tariff Derangement Syndrome(s)

Tariff Derangement Syndrome(s)

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Stocks continued to hit all-time highs yesterday even as the balance of op-eds in financial media talk about the collapse of the liberal world order and threats to liberal democracy itself. Both can be true simultaneously, but caveat emptor on the asset and op-ed side. German stocks sold off when Hitler assumed power then rallied until the Battle of Stalingrad… at which point those trades literally blew up; and if every op-ed writer who deserved it got real egg on their face, the price of that staple would be soaring again. Yet today Bloomberg claims stock traders fear missing out on this rally more than any looming tariffs, “because markets.”

In their corner now is “Main Street not Wall Street’ US Treasury Secretary Bessent, who just attacked the Fed’s “Tariff Derangement Syndrome” to also call for rate cuts. That’s as Fed Chair Powell admitted the FOMC had gone on hold due to the size of the US tariffs being floated, then hinted at a rate cut as soon as this month.

Who can blame markets for a ‘buy all the things’ response to such a potential pivot? Yet there is that pesky tariff issue to overcome first, and de range of potential outcomes there is de syndrome we need to focus on. What we’ve seen in data so far reflects a universal tariff of 10% for everyone but China, who faces around 50%, and Beijing then dumping goods that were heading to the US on the EU, acting as a deflationary force – but one that will ultimately be rejected by trade actions. If tariffs change, the data will change. In short, for markets if not central banks, wait and see is not necessarily a bad option in a potentially crucial week.

Indeed, President Trump just said he won’t extend the July 9 deadline to strike trade deals, and even close allies like Japan could face higher tariffs. Moreover, while we just had insider whispers that the EU accepts the best it can get is a 10% universal tariff and quota exemptions for sectoral tariffs, there are others that it will now take a harder line. Clearly, different journalists are being fed different lines by different stakeholders – and that lack of unity is Europe’s problem in a nutshell. However, it's also the Fed’s… and the ECB’s, BOJ’s, BOE’s, BOC’s, PBOC’s, etc.

Also note China’s People’s Daily reports CCP Chairman Xi just argued the country needs to “govern the disorderly competition of enterprises at low prices in accordance with laws and regulations” – in other words, stop race-to-the-bottom price cuts on EVs and solar panels, etc.

Meanwhile, fiscal policy doesn’t say major monetary loosening is appropriate…. except if fiscal dominance necessitates it, which implies financial repression to follow. For three examples:

  • The Senate narrowly passed Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, to Elon Musk’s fury. It now goes back to the House, where it faces a potentially difficult passage for its self-imposed 4 July deadline. That’s as Trump mused that he’d DOGE Musk’s firms and even look into deporting him if he makes political trouble over the BBB, and Treasury Secretary Bessent stated: “If Elon sticks to rockets, I'll stick to finance." Until he gets stuck running the Fed(?)
     
  • UK PM Starmer managed to pass his welfare bill, but only with massive concessions to rebels that will boost the fiscal deficit significantly. There appears no appetite for any more spending cuts if we were to see the global negative impact of a trade war ahead; and
     
  • The French PM survived a no confidence vote over proposed cuts to welfare there too, but only because the far-right National Rally propped him up, again showing their new parliamentary muscle - and they say they reverse at any point that suits them.

Moreover, as populism rises and the ‘free’ movement of goods is undermined, Poland introduced border checks with Germany and Lithuania inside Schengen, weakening the free movement of people, and the FT bewails less free movement of capital re: the US (and UK) carve-outs from the G7 minimum corporate tax agreement, as each locality tries to keep its revenues for itself.

As in geoeconomics, wait and see is also evident in geopolitics.

On the upside, Israel has reportedly agreed to a 60-day ceasefire with Hamas, to which it has yet to respond, in what looks like a move that will free remaining hostages and allow broader regional peace deals. There’s also been a sharp decline in Houthi missile and drone attacks on Israel following hits to Yemen’s ports and to Iran.

On the downside, the US says Iran loaded naval mines onto its ships during its recent threat to block the Strait of Hormuz(!), and satellite images show it’s built a new access road at Fordow and moved in construction equipment - will the US or Israel have to hit it again? True to form, the EU says talks on Iran’s nuclear program should “restart as soon as possible.” Close by, Turkey told Europe its stand behind its joint maritime claim with Libya --which effectively bisects the eastern Mediterranean-- and that’s on top of Ankara’s other recent claim on Greek waters.

The Pentagon has halted scheduled shipments of air defence missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine on worries US stockpiles are too low after being expended in the Middle East. This is a critical problem for Ukraine, and for Europe by proxy – and an expensive one for both of them. As a US spokesperson noted, “This decision was made to put America’s interests first following a DoD review of our nation’s military support and assistance to other countries across the globe. The strength of the US Armed Forces remains unquestioned - just ask Iran.”

As stressed here for many years, this is critical for markets overall: our global financial architecture ultimately rest on US military hegemony, but it has whittled down the US ability to produce enough weaponry to push-back against the axis of forces now trying to undermine it. Something will have to give, and markets won’t like it either way: the emerging argument is it’s either tariffs, higher defence spending, and possible financial repression, or something potentially worse – not ‘peace through strength’ but risks of ‘war through weakness’.

Yet as an example of how the US can use still realpolitik to push back for now, and will try to do so more ahead, it’s mused the recent Democratic Republic of Congo-Rwanda peace deal will effectively see the former grant the US access to $2 trillion of key minerals it holds as quid pro quo for D.C. stopping a Rwandan militia it had helped fund. By contrast, Europe is in the middle of an offsite to form a committee to set up a working group to create a new acronym to help it access key minerals in unstable places like Africa. I exaggerate, of course, but you get the point.

But do central banks get it? From those who talk to them, no, they really don’t. They apparently can’t even hear the word ‘tariffs’ without suffering from a form of derangement syndrome, and the thought of political, economic, and military statecraft is still alien to them after a career of bean-counting, physics-envy maths black magic, and portentous prognostication.

So, do markets get it? Do we need to ask? They are busily plotting out future rate cuts and buying all the things, even when only some of the things would be worth buying in that kind of environment. That’s a tariff derangement syndrome of another sort.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 10:50

Tesla Deliveries In-Line, Production Beats As Musk Takes Over Sales In US And Europe After Key Exec Departs

Tesla Deliveries In-Line, Production Beats As Musk Takes Over Sales In US And Europe After Key Exec Departs

Tesla's Q2 delivery numbers came in at 384,122 vehicles, just below the estimate of 389,407. While estimates had been lowered multiple times, the number is still better than whisper numbers as low as 350k or 360k that were starting to make their way around the street over the past week. As a result, Tesla stock has popped this morning by almost 7%.

Production beat expectations. Tesla built 410,244 vehicles, compared to the forecast of 400,083. 

Model 3 and Model Y deliveries totaled 373,728, slightly under the estimate of 377,295.

The “Other Models” category — including the Model S, X, and Cybertruck — showed Tesla delivered 10,394 vehicles, below the expected 14,644.

Production of these models also came in slightly under, at 13,409 compared to the estimate of 13,616.

Model 3 and Y production reached 396,835 units, higher than the expected 383,567, suggesting Tesla had ramped up output of its most popular models.

Ahead of Tesla’s Q2 2025 delivery report, expectations were subdued amid signs of continued demand weakness and investor concerns over the company’s growth trajectory. Analysts widely anticipated another disappointing quarter, despite hopes pinned on the rollout of a refreshed Model Y and the company’s long-term robotaxi ambitions.

The Bloomberg consensus projected Tesla would report global deliveries of 395,328, representing an 11% year-over-year decline, though still higher than the 336,700 vehicles delivered in Q1. Production was expected to hit 443,321 units, up from 410,800 in the same period last year.

However, some firms were significantly more bearish. Wells Fargo predicted a 21% drop in deliveries from a year ago, estimating just 343,000 units — far below consensus. JPMorgan cut its estimate to 360,000, calling it a “sizable” 8% miss versus consensus. UBS was only slightly more optimistic, forecasting 366,000 units.

Expectations were tempered by hard data from Tesla’s largest markets. In Europe, Tesla registrations fell 27.9% in May, despite overall EV registrations in the region growing 25%, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA). Year to date, Tesla’s European sales were down 37.1%.

In the U.S., April registrations dropped 16% to 39,913 units. Meanwhile, Chevrolet’s EV registrations surged 215%, overtaking Tesla in growth, while Ford saw a 33% drop.

At the start of Q2, analysts were still optimistic, projecting 444,000 deliveries — in line with the same period in 2024. That forecast steadily declined as market data revealed Tesla wasn't production-constrained, but rather grappling with a demand problem, despite aggressive discounts and 0% financing offers on the Model 3 and Model Y.

Ahead of this morning's data, Bloomberg reports that Elon Musk has assumed direct oversight of Tesla’s sales operations in the United States and Europe, following the recent exit of longtime executive Omead Afshar.

Afshar, who left the company in late June, previously led sales and manufacturing across both regions.

The leadership shift comes as Tesla faces continued sales declines. Musk is now overseeing North American and European sales, while Senior Vice President Tom Zhu retains control of Asia and takes charge of global manufacturing. Zhu, who joined Tesla in 2014 and led the launch of its Shanghai Gigafactory, will now oversee factory heads including Hrushi Sagar in Fremont and Jason Shawhan in Austin. Meanwhile, Troy Jones, Tesla’s vice president of North American sales, now reports directly to Musk.

Musk’s hands-on role in Europe is especially notable. He has previously described the continent as Tesla’s “weakest market.” Sales data supports that: vehicle registrations across Europe dropped 28% in May and are down 37% for the year so far, while Chinese rivals like BYD continue to gain ground.

“Tesla’s sluggish sales” are again under scrutiny as more affordable models are delayed and consumer sentiment remains mixed. With another year of declining deliveries likely, investors are bracing for a second consecutive annual drop.

After a stint overseeing global operations from the U.S., Zhu returned to China last year due to regulatory issues tied to Tesla’s driver-assist features.

Since then, Chinese authorities have proposed new data guidelines that may help Tesla expand its advanced driving systems in the country.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 09:15

'Teary' UK Chancellor Reeves Is Safe For Now But The Gilt Market Maybe Not

'Teary' UK Chancellor Reeves Is Safe For Now But The Gilt Market Maybe Not

Ten-year gilt yields just spiked by more than 10 bps on rumors that UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves was about to resign or be ousted.

The pressure on Reeves comes after Starmer — in a dramatic climbdown on Tuesday — abandoned controversial plans to restrict benefit payments to some disabled people, a reform pushed by the chancellor which would have saved some £5 billion ($6.9 billion), and was key to meeting her self-imposed budgetary rules at her spring statement in March.

Bloomberg reports that the welfare reform package was widely opposed by Labour MPs, with more than 120 originally threatening to vote against the policy in parliament.

Even after the last-ditch decision to drop the most contentious changes, 49 Labour MPs still voted against the bill on Tuesday, a sign of the scale of discontent.

The rebellion and U-turn are a serious blow to Starmer’s political authority as he approaches the first anniversary of Labour’s election win last July.

The decision to ditch the welfare reforms also leaves Reeves facing a widening fiscal hole of more than £6 billion to fill, including the need to fund a separate about-turn on a plan to cut winter fuel payments to pensioners.

As Bloomberg further reports, Starmer’s press secretary, Sophie Nazemi, quickly clarified his position to reporters after PMQs, saying that Reeves was going nowhere.

“She has the prime minister’s full backing,” Nazemi said.

“He’s said it repeatedly.”

The combination of Starmer’s failure to back his chancellor, and Reeves’ tears, prompted speculation about her position until the Treasury clarified that the reason for her demeanor was a personal issue.

“It’s a personal matter, which - as you would expect - we are not going to get into,” the Treasury said in a statement.

“The chancellor will be working out of Downing Street this afternoon.”

But, as Bloomberg's Simon White notes, the rapidity of the move shows the precariousness of the UK’s debt situation.

The government had planned a series of cuts to welfare and sickness benefits, but had to drastically scale them back in the face of huge opposition from backbench MPs.

The watered down changes are estimated to deliver no savings overall.

A new chancellor might drop Reeves’ commitment to not borrow more for day-to-day activities, or increase spending, justifying a deepening concern for the gilt market.

Cable tumbled...

Yields are still near their day’s highs, while a risk measure for the UK, based on asset swaps, country bond spreads and basis swaps, has widened notably.

Keep watching.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 08:59

US Halting Some Weapons Shipments To Ukraine As Own Military Stockpiles Plummet

US Halting Some Weapons Shipments To Ukraine As Own Military Stockpiles Plummet

The Trump administration could finally be willing to bring real pressure to bear on the Zelensky government, as on Tuesday the White House confirmed that it its halting some weapons shipments to Ukraine.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told CBS News that in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war the "decision was made to put America's interests first following" a Defense Department "review of our nation's military support and assistance to other countries across the globe."

Getty Images

This comes after many reports over the last couple years sounding the alarm that US military stockpiles are falling too low, and that they will continue to be depleted based on past Ukraine policy.

While it's unknown precisely which weapons will be halted, or in what quanitites, Kelly asserted that "The strength of the United States Armed Forces remains unquestioned — just ask Iran."

However, we should note that the massive B-2 bomber raids sent against Iran's nuclear facilities was widely questioned among the US public for not exactly being 'America first'. Instead it appeared to prioritize the defense of Israel first.

Still, all the usual 'options' are on the table, we are assured by the Pentagon:

Elbridge Colby, Defense Department under secretary for policy, said in a separate statement Tuesday night in response to the move that the "Department of Defense continues to provide the President with robust options to continue military aid to Ukraine, consistent with his goal of bringing this tragic war to an end. At the same time, the Department is rigorously examining and adapting its approach to achieving this objective while also preserving U.S. forces' readiness for Administration defense priorities."

A potential draw down or limitation of arms sent to Ukraine is likely also driven by the reality that the battlefield hasn't changed substantially due to Washington and US-taxpayer funded assistance.

If anything the Russians keep advancing, now with an eye on Sumy and expanding the Putin-ordered buffer zone. Ukrainian sources say that that Russian forces have successfully expanded their occupation.

DeepState, a Ukrainian group of military analysts, has freshly written, "The trend from May, unfortunately, continued in June. As a reminder, during the most critical month for us – November – the Russians advanced by 730 sq km.

"The largest advances were recorded on the Novopavlivka and Pokrovsk fronts – 29% and 27% respectively. Sumy Oblast also ranks among the top with 18%. This means three-quarters of all advances took place in just three areas," the group said. "The remaining quarter is distributed almost evenly across other sectors of the front (4–6% per sector)."

Is Trump getting serious about a drastic shift in Ukraine policy this time?

Meanwhile, there hasn't been progress on the peace negotiation front. But this could change if Kiev begins running woefully low on US weapons, or sees a halt altogether, creating a new urgent incentive to possibly make territorial concessions at the negotiating table. But it remains that the Europeans have been consistently seeking to step up their support of late.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 08:50

ADP Reports Biggest Drop In Service-Provider Jobs Since COVID Lockdown

ADP Reports Biggest Drop In Service-Provider Jobs Since COVID Lockdown

Having trended weaker for the last two months, analysts expected a modest bounce back in the ADP Employment Report for June (following the mixed picture from ISM/PMI for employment and another mixed bag from Challenger, Grey Job Cuts data this morning).

BUT... The headline print saw a 33k DROP in jobs in June (and a downward revision to +29k in May) - the biggest/first drop since March 2023

Source: Bloomberg

That is a 5 sigma miss from expectations...

And the biggest miss since Aug 2022 (third monthly miss in a row)...

"Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month," said Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.

After losing 2k jobs in May, Goods-Producing firms managed 32k job additions in June but Services providers saw jobs drop 66k - the biggest drop since COVID lockdowns...

Source: Bloomberg

The job losses were dominated by smaller businesses...

Job gains were dominated by Manufacturing and Transportation while job losses were dominated by 'Professional and Business Services'...

"Still, the slowdown in hiring has yet to disrupt pay growth."

  • Year-over-year pay growth for job-stayers was little changed for June at 4.4 percent compared to 4.5 percent in May.

  • Pay growth for job-changers was 6.8 percent in June, down slightly from 7.0 percent last month.

Of course this will all be blamed on Trump's tariffs but it's hard to see how that makes any sense given the surge in Manufacturing jobs (where the tariffs 'would' hit) while Services (which we do not import) saw major job losses.

So, will Powell consider rate-cuts now?

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 08:22

Futures Erase Overnight Gains As July 9 Trade Deadline Looms

Futures Erase Overnight Gains As July 9 Trade Deadline Looms

US equity futures are flat, after trading in a narrow overnight range, with small caps outperforming as we see more signs of a Value rotation as H2 kicks off and after yesterday's dramatic momentum plunge. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are fractionally in the red, reversing an earlier 0.3% gain as President Donald Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline gets ever closer — Trump said on Tuesday he won’t delay the date for imposing higher levies on trading partners; Nasdaq futures drop 0.1% with Mag7 names mixed in premarket trading. Futures for the small-cap Russell 2000 rose 0.9% to outperform as Tuesday’s rotation out of high-momentum stocks extended, which helped Cyclicals led by Financials continue to outperform.  European equities advanced 0.4%. Bond yields are higher as the curve bear steepens and USD catches a bid which accelerates as US traders walk in. Commodities are rallying across all 3 complexes, with Brent trading back over $68. Yesterday, stocks fell into the bell on Trump comments about not extending the July 9 deadline and possibly not reaching a deal with Japan but recovered their initial losses. Today’s macro data focus is on ADP though it has not been a reliable predictor of NFP. 

In premarket trading,Apple climbs 0.7% following an upgrade at Jefferies (from Sell to Hold) while Tesla (TSLA) rises 0.8% as the company saw its first increase in vehicle deliveries from its Shanghai factory this year. The rest of the Mag 7 is mixed (Amazon -0.2%, Meta -0.1%, Alphabet -0.9%, Nvidia -0.6%, Microsoft -0.2%). Here are some other notable movers: 

  • BrightView (BV) declines 8% after the commercial landscaping company cut its revenue guidance for the full year.
  • Cava Group Inc. (CAVA) inches 2% higher after KeyBanc initiated coverage of the Mediterranean restaurant chain with a recommendation of overweight as it sees growth opportunities.
  • Centene Corp. (CNC) tumbles 27% after the health insurer pulled its 2025 guidance, citing insurance market trends that veered from its assumptions and threaten $1.8 billion in revenue.
  • Crocs (CROX) slips 1% after Goldman Sachs started coverage of the footwear company with a sell rating.
  • Oscar Health (OSCR) falls 10% as Barclays initiates coverage at underweight, with the broker saying the stock presents assymetric downside risk after shares gained more than 50% in June alone on “speculative retail interest” despite elevated policy risks. Shares are also being hurt after peer Centene withdrew its 2025 guidance.
  • Verint Systems (VRNT) gains 9% after Bloomberg News reported that the call-center software maker is in talks with buyout firm Thoma Bravo to acquire the company, according to people familiar, who also said there is no certainty the parties will reach an agreement.

The stocks of US banks including JPMorgan, Goldman and Bank of America all rose in premarket trading after boosting their dividends. Wall Street’s largest lenders passed this year’s Federal Reserve stress test, with regulators softening some requirements set in previous years.

As the US continues talks with key trading partners, Trump has turned up pressure on Japan and reaffirmed he won’t delay his tariff deadline, now just a week away. While markets swung wildly on trade headlines in April, equity indexes are now signaling diminished concern with stocks near record highs. The following comment helps explain why: Trump’s warning to Japan “is a non-event,” said Karen Georges, equity fund manager at Ecofi in Paris. “The next two possible catalysts for the markets will be the jobless claims and the deadline for tariff negotiations.”

Elsewhere, data so far this week has affirmed the resilience of the US economy in the face of Trump’s tariff agenda. Wednesday’s ADP Research employment numbers and tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls will offer investors additional insight into the labor market and the likely path of interest rates. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises 0.4%, set for its first gain this week, with mining, bank and energy shares leading the advance. Here are the biggest European movers:

  • Santander rises as much as 2.8% after agreeing agreed to buy Banco Sabadell SA’s UK unit for £2.65 billion ($3.64 billion).
  • Spectris shares rise as much as 5.3%, trading higher than the value of an agreed offer from KKR, buoyed by the prospect of a bidding war for the company.
  • Tate & Lyle shares rise as much as 4.3% after the ingredients company outlined a “clear picture for future growth” at its capital markets event in London on Tuesday, according to analysts at Goodbody.
  • Avanza gains as much as 15%, after newspaper Dagens Industri reported its biggest shareholder Sven Hagstromer’s family is in talks with a private equity firm to take the comapny private.
  • Alfen shares rose as much as 1.2% after the firm announced Chief Executive Marco Roeleveld will retire early due to his health and depart at the end of this year.
  • Hellenic Exchanges Athens shares gain as much as 14%, the most since 2020, as Euronext says it is in talks to buy the Athens stock market operator.
  • European mining shares gain, as iron ore and steel surged, after China’s top leadership vowed to crack down on “disorderly” low-price competition and phase out some industrial capacity.
  • European renewables stocks rally after a US excise tax seen as an existential threat to the solar and wind industry was stripped from the Senate GOP tax megabill that passed the chamber in a tie-breaking vote Tuesday.
  • Bytes Technology shares fall as much as 27%, after the UK software provider issued a profit warning, citing a challenging macroeconomic environment that has led some customers to defer buying decisions.
  • Jet2 shares fall as much as 3.7% as Panmure Liberum cuts its rating on the stock to hold from buy, seeing limited upside after the travel firm’s strong re-rating in recent months.
  • ConvaTec shares extend decline in biggest two-day drop since August 2021, after the US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services filed a proposal for certain chronic care products to be included in the Competitive Bidding Program.
  • Greggs shares drop as much as 15% to approach a three-month low after the food-on-the-go retailer said full-year operating profit could be “modestly” below last year due to hot weather in Britain.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities traded in a narrow range as fresh tariff threats from President Donald Trump weighed on sentiment.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.5% before paring most of the losses, with Nintendo, Mitsubishi Heavy and Advantest among the biggest drags. Japanese shares slid after Trump threatened to impose levies of 30%-35% on imports amid dim prospects for a deal before next week’s deadline. Benchmarks also declined in South Korea, India, and Indonesia. Trump’s comments spurred caution over a recent rally driven by anticipation of progress in trade deals, hopes for dollar-driven foreign inflows and prospects for interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. 

“There is a lot more risk of things falling apart than is being priced in by the market,” said Zuhair Khan, a fund manager at UBP Investments. “There is always the risk of a policy blunder by either side.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.2%. The yen is nursing the largest decline against the greenback among the G-10 currencies, falling 0.5% which takes USD/JPY above 144. The pound also underperforms as it weakens 0.4%.

“The dollar usually loses value when the global economy is in decent shape and the Fed is cutting rates,” noted Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “Both factors are relevant now.”

In rates, treasuries fall for a second day heading into a double whammy of labor data, following an unexpected jump in US job opening numbers. US 10-year yields rise 5 bps to 4.29%. European bonds also decline, with gilts faring slightly worse than their German counterparts. UK 10-year borrowing costs rise 4 bps to 4.50%. Swaps now imply about 63 basis points of Fed policy easing by year-end, down from 67 basis points on Tuesday before data unexpectedly showed that US job openings rose to the highest since November.

In commodities, spot gold is steady around $3,342/oz. WTI rises 0.8% to near $66 a barrel.

Looking at today's calendar, US economic data slate includes June Challenger job cuts (7:30am) and ADP employment change (8:15am); no Fed speakers are scheduled

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini +0.1%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
  • Russell 2000 mini +0.8%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
  • DAX +0.4%
  • CAC 40 +1.1%
  • 10-year Treasury yield +4 basis points at 4.28%
  • VIX little changed at 16.82
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1191.33
  • euro -0.3% at $1.1769
  • WTI crude +0.7% at $65.89/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • A handful of hard-line House conservatives are threatening to tank a Wednesday procedural vote for the party’s reconciliation bill, a revolt that would bring the lower chamber to a screeching halt and potentially derail GOP leadership’s plan of clearing the legislation by July 4. The Hill
  • US House Speaker Johnson said the Senate went a “little further than many of us would have preferred” in amending the bill, according to Punchbowl. It was later reported that US House Speaker Johnson said voting on the bill will be on Thursday at the latest, according to a Fox News interview.
  • Punchbowl says the Reconciliation Bill schedule is to bring the US House back at 09:00ET/14:00BST today and vote as soon as possible. Punchbowl spoke to several people on the House GOP whip team Tuesday night, they expressed alarm about what they’re seeing on their whip cards. Sources said that they were racking up no’s from lawmakers who they didn’t expect would be opposed to the bill. Reports that a "bunch" of House Freedom Caucus members are saying they’ll vote no. Elsewhere, on the Democratic leader Jeffries' Magic Minute, sources suggest it will be around one hour long.
  • The Pentagon has halted shipments of some air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine due to worries that U.S. weapons stockpiles have fallen too low. Politico
  • Israel has agreed to “conditions to finalize” a 60-day ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza according to Trump (Hamas said its ready for a ceasefire, but wants a complete end to the war). NYT
  • Private employers in the US probably added 98,000 jobs in June, up from just 37,000 in the previous month, ADP data is expected to show. BBG
  • Chinese artificial-intelligence companies are loosening the U.S.’s global stranglehold on AI, challenging American superiority and setting the stage for a global arms race in the technology. OpenAI’s ChatGPT remains the world’s predominant AI consumer chatbot, with 910 million global downloads compared with DeepSeek’s 125 million, but other Chinese companies have started to snatch customers by offering performance that is nearly as good at vastly lower prices. WSJ
  • Xi Jinping addressed the price wars that plague many industries in China, saying that enterprises’ “disorderly low-price competition” needs to be regulated. SCMP
  • Japan said it’s engaging in trade talks in good faith with the US after Trump reiterated his July 9 deadline. PM Shigeru Ishiba said Japan will work to reduce the deficit, but noted that the US needs to produce cars that meet the country’s safety standards. BBG
  • China’s largest ports received almost 1.4 million barrels per day of Iranian crude from January to June, according to Kpler, highlighting a significant gap in US efforts to uphold existing sanctions. BBG
  • Crude inventories at Cushing fell by 1.42 million barrels last week, the API is said to have reported. If confirmed, that would be the biggest decline since January and also cut holdings at the hub close to minimum operating levels of 20 million. BBG 
  • Netflix (NFLX) is reportedly discussing music-related events with Spotify (SPOT), via WSJ citing sources.    
  • Apple (AAPL) is facing a "hurdle" after supplier Foxconn (2317 TW) has pulled Chinese staff from India, according to Bloomberg.

Tariffs/Trade

  • Japan's tariff negotiator Akazawa is arranging a US visit as early as this weekend for trade talks, according to TV Asahi; Japan and the US are continuing vigorous trade talks. Notes that staff level talks were held on June 30th, reiterates that an agreement that would hurt Japan's national interests for the sake of timing should not be made, will not deny possibilities of travelling to the US, but has no specific schedule to do so
  • Canada's Ambassador to Washington said Canada still aims to lift all Trump tariffs as part of a deal with the US, according to the Globe and Mail.
  • South American bloc Mercosur concluded talks for a free-trade agreement with European bloc EFTA, while the blocs are set to announce finalisation of a free trade agreement on Wednesday, according to Brazilian sources cited by Reuters.
  • EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic is to visit China in August, via SCMP citing sources; his team is reportedly compiling a list of specific "asks" that would seek from China; in turn, Sefcovic has been asked to be more specific with his requests. Chinese investment within Europe is seen as a potential area for discussion. On this, the SCMP piece references EVs and battery plants.
  • Maersk (MAERSKB DC) says many customers are reassessing shipment timings in light of potential reintroduction of US-China tariffs in August, making Q3 planning more complex.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed following a similar handover from the US where participants digested data, trade commentary and a slew of central bank rhetoric. ASX 200 gained as strength in the mining, materials and real estate sectors offset the losses in tech and financials, but with further upside contained by disappointing Australian Retail Sales and Building Approvals data. Nikkei 225 declined amid trade uncertainty after President Trump noted doubts about a deal with Japan and suggested Japan could pay 30% or 35% tariffs. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark underpinned on return from the holiday closure as gambling stocks surged owing to the jump in Macau gaming revenue for June, while the mainland was contained after the PBoC's open market operations resulted in a net CNY 266.8bln drain.

Top Asian News

  • Japanese government issues emergency earthquake warning, near Tokara; with a 5.1 magnitude earthquake reported off the coast of Japan's Kagoshima prefecture, via NHK; Earthquake hit around 15:26 JST (07:26BST). No tsunami warning.

European indices opened in the green, shrugging off a mixed APAC lead. Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%; newsflow has been a little light, primarily focussed on trade. European sectors were entirely in the green, Banks outperforming initially, bolstered by numerous equity specifics; however, strength has faded with sectors now mixed, Real Estate lags given the elevated yield environment.

Top European News

  • UK PM Starmer won the vote in parliament on welfare reform; was forced to back down on certain aspects of his proposal. Savings under the plan are now expected to be closer to GBP 2bln vs. initially planned GBP 5bln.
  • EU reportedly blocks Britain's attempts to join the pan-European trading bloc, according to the FT.
  • ECB's Centeno says the ECB remains cautious on the rate path.
  • ECB's Rehn says the ECB should be mindful of the risk that inflation stays persistently below 2% target; says joint EU borrowing to finance defence could also boost EUR's role by creating new safe asset.
  • ECB's Wunsch says there is an argument for providing a mildly supportive policy stance; not uncomfortable with market rate expectations.
  • BoE's Taylor says a soft landing on interest rates is at risk, don't think bigger cuts are needed or desirable. UK neutral real rate to be around 0.75-1.0%, putting the nominal rate around 2.75-3.0%. In Q1, reading of the deteriorating outlook suggested that the BoE needed to be on a lower rate path, needing five cuts in 2025 rather than the market-implied quarterly pace of four. QT is not on a pre-set path, like rates.

FX

  • USD is attempting to atone for recent pressure with the DXY firmer and eyeing 97.00 to the upside, having breached Tuesday's 96.94 peak. Today's data slate sees Challenger layoffs and ADP employment, ahead of tomorrow's NFP print with markets likely to be particularly sensitive to any downside surprise.
  • G10 peers are all lower vs the USD. The CAD fares best and is essentially flat on return from holiday and benefitting from crude strength.
  • JPY lags, USD/JPY above 144.00 in a 143.33 to 144.24 band. Hit by the increasingly sour tone from the US administration regarding US-Japan trade talks. To recap, US President Trump said he doubts they'll have a deal with Japan; suggested Japan could pay 30% or 35% tariffs.
  • Sterling under pressure against the USD, Cable below 1.37 to a 1.3689 trough, and also the EUR. Macro focus on the Welfare Reform vote which required another u-turn to ensure its passage, highlighting concern around the fiscal backdrop for the UK.
  • While the EUR outpaces GBP, it is softer against the USD with EUR/USD below 1.18 and taking a breather from the 1.1830 multi-year peak that printed on Tuesday. Ongoing remarks from the Sintra conference, but nothing that has moved the dial thus far.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1546 vs exp. 7.1623 (Prev. 7.1534).

Fixed Income

  • In the red, Gilts lag after further concessions on the Welfare Reform Bill. Concessions that increase the odds of tax increases and calls into question the government's fiscal credibility, writes IFS. Lower by over 50 ticks on the session, but above support at 92.85 and 92.83 from last Friday and this Monday, respectively.
  • A softer session for EGBs as well. Specifics light with nothing groundbreaking from Sintra just yet. Bunds at the low-end of a 130.08 to 130.50 band. One that is 10 ticks below Tuesday’s base but a similar amount clear of the WTD 130.00 base. If breached, we look to 129.92 and then 129.30 from the last two weeks of May.
  • USTs also lower, though to a slightly lesser degree than the above peers. Holding at the low-end of a 111-20+ to 111-30+ band. A tick below Tuesday’s base and notching a fresh WTD low by half a tick. If the move continues, there is a bit of a gap until 110-25 from the week before.
  • UK sells GBP 5bln 4.375% 2028 Gilt: b/c 3.46x (prev. 3.08x), average yield 3.847% (prev. 4.062%) & tail 0.1bps (prev. 0.3bps)
  • Germany sells EUR 4.557bln vs exp. EUR 6bln 2.60% 2035 Bund: b/c 1.6x, average yield 2.63%, retention 24.05%

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks are in the green and continuing to climb as the session progresses. Magnitude of strength initially in-line with that seen in European equity benchmarks but has since extended. Newsflow this morning light, handful of updates on the geopolitical front and no sustained follow through to the surprise private inventory build last night.
  • WTI resides in a USD 65.23-65.93/bbl range while its Brent counterpart trades in a USD 66.94-67.75/bbl range.
  • Precious metals somewhat mixed, XAU and XAG wane from peaks set in APAC trade, hit this morning as the USD gains ground. Though, for XAU, parameters are not too pronounced as participants await the next macro inflection point and look to Challenger Layoffs before ADP.
  • Base metals mostly but modestly firmer, upside capped by discussed USD strength. For copper, attention on reports of mining disruptions in Peru while LME on-warrant aluminium stockpiles have hit a 2025 peak.
  • US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +0.7mln (exp.-1.8mln), Distillate -3.5mln (exp. -1.0mln), Gasoline +1.9mln (exp. -0.2mln), Cushing -1.4mln.

Geopolitics

  • US President posted that his representatives had a long and productive meeting with the Israelis on Gaza and Israel agreed to the necessary conditions to finalise a 60-day ceasefire during which they will work with all parties to end the war. Furthermore, the Qataris and Egyptians will deliver this final proposal and he hopes, for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this deal, because it will not get better and will only get worse.
  • US officials said Iran made preparations to mine the Strait of Hormuz last month although mines were not deployed in the strait, according to Reuters.
  • "Iranian Minister of Communications: Internet outages in the country caused by external attacks", according to Al Jazeera.
  • "Advisor to the Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC: The war has stopped, but the United States and Israel have not achieved their goals", according to Iran International.
  • US Pentagon has halted shipments of some air defence missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine due to worries that US weapons stockpiles have fallen too low, according to Politico.
  • Quad joint statement expresses serious concern over the situation in the East China Sea and South China Sea, while they called for the perpetrators, organisers and financiers of the April 22nd attack in Indian Kashmir to be brought to justice.

US event calendar

  • 7:00 am: Jun 27 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 1.1%
  • 7:30 am: Jun Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior 47%
  • 8:15 am: Jun ADP Employment Change, est. 98k, prior 37k

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

My rain dance continues as it's so hot the kids can't sleep, my wife can't sleep, Brontë the dog can't sleep and I can't sleep. The kids have come in to our bedroom a few times this week, waking us up just to tell us they have an itchy bite on their legs. That then leads to a 10 minute conversation about there being nothing we can do about it but ultimately leads to a trip downstairs for some bite cream. An hour later we may get back to sleep. Meanwhile I've had more diet cokes to help cool me down over the last few days than the fridge can hold in the Oval Office. 

Markets also seemed to wilt a little in the heat yesterday and struggled to keep up their recent momentum, with the S&P 500 (-0.11%) slipping back from its record high even if it did get a small boost from news that the tax bill finally passed the Senate with VP JD Vance providing the casting tie-break busting vote (51-50). The bill now goes on to the House of Representatives, and both chambers have to pass the same version of the bill before it can reach President Trump’s desk. Remember that the first House vote was also very tight, with just a 215-214 margin, and the Republicans only have a 220-212 majority to start with. So there’s not much room for manoeuvre if they want to pass this by Trump’s July 4 deadline. There is a vote scheduled for later today, but already a handful of GOP lawmakers who voted for the first version of the bill are signaling opposition to the Senate changes. So it's not going to be easy. If it ultimately passes, the bill would extend the Trump tax cuts from the first term, and it also includes a $5tn increase in the debt ceiling, so it would remove that risk coming up later in the summer too.

One of the most important developments of the last 24 hours was the latest JOLTS report of job openings in the US, which pointed to a tighter labour market than previously thought. On one level, it demonstrated continued resilience and strong labour demand, but investors responded by lowering the likelihood of rate cuts this year, which led to a small spike in Treasury yields across the curve. So the 10yr Treasury yield (+1.4bps) ultimately pared back its early decline (4.185% at the lows) and moved back up to 4.24% after getting as high as 4.275% as London went home. The 2yr yield (+5.3bps) moved up to 3.77% from a low of 3.696% before the data.

In more detail, the JOLTS report showed job openings were up to a 6-month high of 7.769m in May (vs. 7.3m expected). So that pushed back against the narrative of a softening labour market, and it raised the ratio of vacancies per unemployed individuals to 1.07. Moreover, the details pointed in a similar direction, with the quits rate of those voluntarily leaving their jobs back up to 2.1%. So collectively, that countered the dovish trend of recent days, where Fed cuts were looking increasingly likely, particularly after a few speakers floated the idea of a cut as soon as the next meeting in July. But with that JOLTS report, investors dialled back the likelihood of aggressive cuts, with the amount priced in by the December meeting down -2.2bps on the day to 64bps. Admittedly, there was some other data yesterday, including the ISM manufacturing. But the numbers were broadly as expected, with the headline index at 49.0 (vs. 48.8 expected), so they didn’t really shift investors’ perception of the outlook.

We did hear from Fed Chair Powell at the ECB’s Sintra forum, but he stuck to his cautious mantra, saying on inflation that “We’re watching. We expect to see over the summer some higher readings”. He also added that if not for the worries about inflation rising due to tariffs, the Fed would likely already have lowered the policy rate further. Meanwhile, Trump continued his own attacks on Powell, saying that “Anybody would be better than Powell” and that he had “two or three top choices” to succeed the current Fed Chair but failed to expand further.

Otherwise, the big focus has been on trade, with just a week left until the 90-day reciprocal tariff extension runs out on July 9. There were optimistic noises around a trade deal with India, with Treasury Secretary Bessent saying they were “very close” to a deal, whilst India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said in a Newsweek interview that "I believe it's possible, and I think we'll have to watch this space for the next few days”. Separately, Stephen Miran, who chairs the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said he was “optimistic” on an EU deal. President Trump again struck a negative tone on the trade deal with Japan in comments to the press, saying they should “pay 30%, 35% or whatever the number is that we determine, because we also have a very big trade deficit with Japan.” On whether the US would push back the July 9th deadline, the president noted he was “not thinking about the pause” and that he could be “writing letters to a lot of countries.” 

This backdrop proved a trickier one for equities, and the S&P 500 fell -0.11% by the close. However, that was influenced by a sharp fall for Tesla (-5.34%), which fell after Trump posted that Elon Musk “may get more subsidy than any human being in history, by far” and “Perhaps we should have DOGE take a good, hard, look at this? BIG MONEY TO BE SAVED!!!” So that meant the Magnificent 7 fell -1.17% yesterday, which helped drag down US equities more broadly. Indeed, if you look at the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+1.10%), it was actually a very positive day and the index hit a 6-month high, so it wasn’t all bad news.

Over in Europe, the tone was generally more positive than in the US, with sovereign bonds rallying across the curve. That came as the flash Euro Area CPI print came in at +2.0% in June, exactly in line with the ECB’s target. Core was a little bit higher, at +2.3%, but that was also as expected. So that added to the sense that the ECB would still have the space to cut rates again this year. Moreover, ECB Vice President de Guindos commented that if the Euro moved above $1.20, then “that would be much more complicated. But $1.20 is perfectly acceptable.” So that again offered a potential justification for more rate cuts, particularly as a stronger appreciation for the euro would bring down import prices and dampen inflation. Indeed, the amount of further ECB cuts priced by the December meeting moved up +1.0bps on the day to 24.7bps. So that supported a bond rally across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (-3.3bps), OATs (-3.3bps) and BTPs (-2.7bps) all coming down. Nevertheless, equities still struggled and the STOXX 600 fell -0.21%. In addition, the Euro gained for a ninth straight session to its highest level since September 2021.

While much of the market is focused on US politics, here in the UK Prime Minister Starmer faced a tough vote on the government’s welfare reform last night. After a week of watering down the welfare cuts in the bill, the government decided at the last minute to offer more concesssions. This is remarkable for a government in its first year and with a huge majority. It potentially creates a £5bn funding black hole that may need to be closed with tax rises in the autumn, just as many countries launch tax cuts to combat the new tariff era. 

Asian equity markets outside of China are on the weaker side this morning given a little more concern over trade. The KOSPI (-0.85%) stands out as the largest underperformer, while the Nikkei (-0.21%) is slipping on trade concerns although both indices have rallied back a fair amount as I've been typing this morning. By contrast, the Hang Seng (+0.77%) is defying the trend, with mainland Chinese equities broadly flat. S&P 500 (+0.27%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.34%) futures having been edging higher while this paragraph has evolved. 

To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers will include ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Cipollone and Lane, and the BoE’s Taylor. Otherwise, data releases include the ADP’s report of private payrolls in the US for June, along with the Euro Area unemployment rate for May.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 08:20

After Spain Imports Record Amount Of Diesel From Morocco, Experts Point To Russian Sources

After Spain Imports Record Amount Of Diesel From Morocco, Experts Point To Russian Sources

Via Remix News,

A record-breaking increase of diesel imports from Morocco to Spain has raised suspicions within the energy industry that some of the fuel may be of Russian origin. In just two months, from March to April 2025, Spain imported 123,000 tons of diesel from Morocco, more than the entire historical total.

The shipments are raising questions about how honest the EU’s energy policy is, which claims it is working to cut off Russian energy but in reality, is often sourcing it through middle countries.

According to Spanish newspaper El Pais, there are a number of factors that raise the likelihood that Spain is buying Russian diesel through the backdoor.

Besides the sudden increase in diesel from Morocco, a country that Spain does not typically import substantial amounts of diesel from, industry sources say Morocco did not impose sanctions on Russian energy resources after the invasion of Ukraine.

El Pais noted that since the beginning of 2025, Morocco has imported over 1 million tons of Russian diesel, accounting for 25 percent of its total imports. It could also be that Morocco is importing diesel from other countries that are also importing Russian diesel and repackaging it to hide its true source.

Experts believe the diesel is sent to Morocco and there it is blended with other diesel oils, making it untraceable back to its source.

The suspicion is that this fuel is being imported by Rabat, the capital of Morocco, at a lower cost and then re-exported to Spain with a North African country’s certification to mask its origin.

This practice is being investigated by the Spanish government, which has been trying to prove the Russian origin of the fuel since at least 2023. However, the government has so far been unable to provide definitive proof.

El Pais also pointed out that since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Spain’s diesel imports have increased from other countries that were not previous suppliers, including Singapore and Turkey.

This follows a 2024 investigation into a “Diesel mafia,” whose fraud activities were estimated at €1.9 billion, involving oil imported from sanctioned countries like Iran, Russia, and Syria, with altered certificates of origin from Turkey and Morocco.

Notably, many EU countries have criticized Hungary and Slovakia for stating the EU still needs Russian energy. Meanwhile, many of these EU countries either continue to directly import Russian energy, or in the case of Spain, are likely importing it through middle countries.

To add insult to injury, El Pais notes that Russia’s economy remains red hot. Despite predictions Russia would collapse under sanctions, the IMF noted that Russia grew by 4.1 percent in 2024, which is more than the United States, the EU, and Spain. The global average was 3.3 percent.

Russia’s wartime economy is also driving its economic engine, but the BBC also writes that despite sanctions, oil tankers continue to flow to India and China, which is driving significant revenue into Russia’s coffers.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 08:05

California Moves Forward With Higher Marijuana Excise Tax

California Moves Forward With Higher Marijuana Excise Tax

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

Buying legal weed and marijuana products in California will get slightly more expensive starting July 1 after state legislators failed to stop a state excise tax increase on the industry this month.

Effective Tuesday, marijuana retailers will pay 19 percent of gross receipts from cannabis and cannabis product sales—a jump of 4 percentage points.

The excise tax is paid in addition to state sales tax and any city or county taxes applicable to the business’s location.

California Cannabis Industry Attorney Jared Schwass said the decision to move ahead with the tax was “disappointing.”

“California legislators fail to act,” Schwass posted on X last week. “Due to that failure, the California cannabis tax is still on schedule to increase from 15 percent to 19 percent on July 1st. It is disappointing to read that [Sen.] Mike McGuire was against freezing the automatic increase because his constituents, who are already struggling to stay in the regulated market, will feel the pain of this increased tax.”

McGuire, a Democrat from Ukiah in Northern California, is leader of the California State Senate.

The state Assembly unanimously approved Assembly Bill 564 by Assemblyman Matt Haney of San Francisco on June 2. The legislation, as introduced, would have repealed the proposed tax hike. It was amended by lawmakers, however, to delay the implementation until the 2030–2031 fiscal year.

The bill then stalled in a Senate committee this month, and the delay allows the tax hike to kick in.

The United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) Western States Council applauded the bill’s passage in June.

“California’s plans to raise the cannabis excise tax rate to 19 percent will only increase the number of failed legal cannabis businesses,” UFCW Local 1167 President Joe Duffle said in a statement. “As the leading cannabis union, UFCW sees how difficult it is for businesses that play by the rules.”

Duffle said freezing the cannabis excise tax would give legal cannabis businesses a “fighting chance” to stay afloat in the struggling industry.

“Without this bill, the illicit cannabis industry will only flourish more and keep putting untested, untaxed and unregulated cannabis products into the hands of consumers,” he added.

A baker sells marijuana cookies at the medical marijuana farmers market at the California Heritage Market in Los Angeles on July 11, 2014.  David McNew/Reuters

The California Cannabis Operators Association, the largest industry association in the state, started a petition to urge legislators to pass the bill.

“Sacramento politicians decided that you should now pay 25 percent more in excise taxes on safe and regulated cannabis products at your local dispensary,” the association wrote in the petition. “This short-sighted policy decision will only drive more consumers to the illicit market, accelerate the ongoing market collapse, and (ironically) reduce overall tax revenue, hurting the community programs that rely on these funds.”

The organization said the tax increase falls on consumers and patients at a time when many are struggling with inflation and cost-of-living challenges. The group also said it puts public health and safety at greater risk by driving even more Californians to the illegal black market.

“For nearly five years, California’s licensed cannabis market has been in a steep decline,” the organization stated.

On a statewide level, however, Haney’s legislation faced strong opposition from a coalition of 98 organizations, including Youth Forward, Getting it Right from the Start, Child Action Inc., and other nonprofits that favored raising the excise tax.

The groups said they risked losing at least $150 million per year for childcare, youth, and environmental programs if the tax increase was stalled.

“This translates into thousands fewer childcare slots for low-income children, fewer youth benefiting from substance abuse prevention programs, continuing environmental degradation of our watersheds, and other harms,” the organizations told the state, according to a legislative analysis.

Indigenous Justice, a nonprofit tribal organization, also opposed the bill, saying it would strip critical funding from tribal-focused grants that support cultural revitalization, land restoration, youth substance use prevention, sacred site access, and tribal youth leadership development, according to a legislative analysis.

California receives millions each year in cannabis excise tax revenue that pays for childcare programs, health initiatives, and environmental programs.

The state’s Legislative Analyst’s Office projected in March that the state would receive $607 million in cannabis tax revenue between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 07:20

Despite Dollar Access & Govt Crackdowns, Turks Are Sitting On $331 Billion Of Household Gold

Despite Dollar Access & Govt Crackdowns, Turks Are Sitting On $331 Billion Of Household Gold

Authored by Peter Reagan via BirchGold.com,

"The distinct Turkish tradition of "saving under the pillow" – a term referring to keeping valuables like gold at home – often comes into play during times of economic crisis, when the government calls on citizens to spend their savings to help revive the economy."

The opening part of a recent report highlighting how Turkey's 4,500 tons of physical gold bullion are mostly domestically-held is curious, and also telling.

Why should Turks oblige its government and spend what little wealth they are likely to have, the latter point being so because the government has destroyed the currency? It is quite brazen that a government infamous for monetary mismanagement would tell its citizens, who are far more capable of managing finances, on what to do with the very money that the central bank is destroying.

Perhaps it is the full awareness of how careless and hazardous the central bank is that has caused Turks to accumulate $331 billion of household gold.

Bars, coins, jewelry: whatever can be bought is stored away as Turks wait to see how much further the lira can crumble, having hit an inflation rate of 85.51% in October 2022.

The government obviously sees this as a problem, constantly trying to associate gold with tax evasion and money laundering.

Because why else would someone buy gold, right?

It has increased the sales tax on gold purchases and likely played some part in banks having huge differences in buy/sell prices, driving the gold trade underground.

Any jewelry purchase over $5,000 must be reported thoroughly, as if anyone buying a nice ring could be funding terrorism, and sales of uncertified cut gold bars were banned in 2024.

Despite this obvious clampdown, and despite relatively easy access to U.S. dollars and euros, Turks are still mostly opting for the comparatively inconvenient option of holding physical gold.

The article purports that this is because of cultural tradition, but it's very likely that Turkey's citizens recognize free-floating paper for what it is.

Why escape from one inflationary asset into another?

Amusingly enough, a prominent Turkish economist notes that it's these very reserves that the government is hounding that provide stability during times of crisis, which seem to be ongoing these days.

When economic stress hits, liquidating some of their gold to rebuy it when things stabilize is how Turks keep things moving.

Without this, the economy might altogether crumble.

The drive to move gold out of households and into questionable governing hands goes back to 1980s. Turks were meant to get interest from depositing their gold in banks, but the initiative mostly went nowhere.

Here's why:

concerns soon emerged about liquidity risks. Policymakers feared a potential crisis if all depositors demanded physical gold at once, particularly if the collected gold had already been sold abroad to obtain foreign currency.

Sort of like the COMEX-London-Basel III situation, isn’t it? With obvious admissions such as these, it's no wonder Turks only trust gold that they can hold and store themselves.

Erdogan's 2016 appeal to patriotism morphed into the Gold Conversion System in 2022, which was about as alluring as it sounds. Strangely, the article says that these and similar efforts didn't take off because of "cultural norms, practical concerns, and structural economic uncertainties."

It seems that the answer lies elsewhere and is much more straightforward.

Trust is mostly necessarily earned, and the government of Turkey has done little but betray it over the last few decades. On the other hand, gold has upheld it and then some.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 06:30

US Revokes Visas For British Punk-Rap Duo Over Anti-Israel Chant

US Revokes Visas For British Punk-Rap Duo Over Anti-Israel Chant

Authored by Savannah Hulsey Pointer via The Epoch Times,

The State Department revoked the U.S. visas of the British punk-rap band Bob Vylan, following the group’s anti-Israel comments at a world-famous English music festival. 

Lead singer Bobby Vylan led attendees at his June 28 concert at the Glastonbury Festival in chants of “Death, death to the IDF!” referring to the Israel Defense Forces.

The concert came just days after the United States and Israel engaged in an offensive against Iranian nuclear sites, and almost two years after Hamas’s deadly Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel, prompting Israeli military actions in Gaza aimed at eliminating the Palestinian terrorist group and freeing the hostages taken by it. The ongoing Israel–Hamas conflict also triggered protests by pro-Palestinian activists against Israel’s military responses.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau announced in a June 30 X post that “The [State Department] has revoked the U.S. visas for the members of the Bob Vylan band in light of their hateful tirade at Glastonbury, including leading the crowd in death chants. Foreigners who glorify violence and hatred are not welcome visitors to our country.”

The band was scheduled later this year to make appearances in cities across the nation, including Washington, Utah, Colorado, Missouri, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, and other states.

During the weekend show, Vylan chanted against the IDF while performing in front of 200,000 people at the festival, held in Somerset, England, which is one of the world’s largest music events.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned Vylan’s message.

“There is no excuse for this kind of appalling hate speech,” Starmer said in a statement. “I said that [Irish hip-hop group] Kneecap should not be given a platform, and that goes for any other performers making threats or inciting violence.”

Vylan took to Facebook the day after the performance, saying he had been “inundated” with a mixture of “support and hatred,” but reiterating his stance that “I said what I said.” 

The singer referenced his daughter, saying:

“Teaching our children to speak up for the change they want and need is the only way that we make this world a better place. 

“Let us display to them loudly and visibly the right thing to do when we need change.” 

Police said they are considering whether an investigation is needed. Avon and Somerset Police wrote on X, “We are aware of the comments made by acts on the West Holts Stage at Glastonbury Festival this afternoon. Video evidence will be assessed by officers to determine whether any offences may have been committed that would require a criminal investigation.” 

Chris Philp, the Conservative MP for Croydon South and Shadow Home Secretary in the UK, encouraged prosecution against Vylan, saying on X:

“It seems clear Vylan was inciting violence and hatred … I call on the Police to urgently investigate and prosecute the BBC as well for broadcasting this.”

The BBC admitted on June 30 that it should have cut the broadcast after the “anti-Semitic” and “utterly unacceptable” comments were made.

The broadcaster has since removed the performance from its website.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 03:30

What Parents Wish Their Children Could Grow Up Without

What Parents Wish Their Children Could Grow Up Without

With the technological advancements of the past two decades, a lot of new challenges have emerged for parents of young children. As they try to navigate the ever-evolving media and device landscape, it’s as difficult as it is important to strike the right balance between giving kids the chance to learn how to use technology and protecting them from the potential harm that early (over)use of smartphones and social media can doubtlessly inflict on a child’s development.

Given the complexity of the task at hand and the lack of past experience to draw from, it’s understandable that many parents are uncertain how to manage their children’s device use, screen and social media time.

And while they acknowledge the potential benefits of smartphones and social media, a sizeable share of parents would like to turn back the time for their children’s sake, according to a recent Harris Poll.

As Statista's Felix Richter reports, when asked which things they wished had never been invented thinking about their child’s experience growing up, more than half of the surveyed parents said they wished for their kids that social media didn’t exist.

 What Parents Wish Their Children Could Grow Up Without | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

More specifically, 62 percent of respondents wished that TikTok had never been invented, 62 percent said they would have liked to spare their kids the toxicity of X (formerly Twitter) and 56 percent wished that Instagram didn’t exist.

As the chart shows, the one thing parents wanted gone most for the sake of their children is online pornography, which more than 7 in 10 respondents hoped wouldn’t exist.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 02:45

"You Don't Have To Show Your ID Anywhere" – Police Union & AfD Rage s 1 In 5 Illegals Now Simply Flying Into Germany

"You Don't Have To Show Your ID Anywhere" – Police Union & AfD Rage s 1 In 5 Illegals Now Simply Flying Into Germany

Via Remix news,

In the past 12 months, the German Federal Police have identified 12,858 illegal migrants who entered Germany by air, a significant number that is on the rise. Now, migrants are increasingly choosing simply to fly into Germany instead of dealing with the long ordeal of crossing multiple borders in dangerous conditions.

This increase in migrants flying into Germany jumped after Germany tightened border controls.

In May of this year alone, at least 977 illegal entries were recorded using air travel to enter Germany, accounting for over 20 percent of all identified illegal border crossings.

However, the true number of such crossings is likely much higher, as foreign nationals traveling within the Schengen area are not required to show identification. As a result, they are often only discovered long after they have left the airport, making it impossible to turn them back.

“It would be consistent to also notify the Schengen air borders,” said Heiko Teggatz, a board member of the German Police Union (DPolG).

“If the smugglers aren’t completely stupid, they’ll simply bring their people from other Schengen states to Germany by plane. Today, you can easily book a plane ticket within the Schengen area, and you generally don’t have to show your ID anywhere.”

All of this information came from a government response from Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) after Alternative for Germany (AfD) MP Gottfried Curio, the party’s domestic policy spokesperson, launched an inquiry.

Dobrindt was forced to acknowledge that the tightened controls “refer exclusively to the land borders,” meaning no illegal migrants were turned back at airports.

This trend of illegal entry by plane has intensified since the new federal government instructed officials to begin rejecting asylum seekers at internal borders. 

Teggatz confirmed this “increase in secondary migration via airports,” noting that “Medium-sized commercial airports like Hanover are particularly affected.”

Despite hundreds of officers being deployed at German airports, checks are almost exclusively conducted on flights from outside the Schengen area. That means if a migrant makes it to Greece and manages to get on a plane to Germany, there is little chance he will be checked.

Dobrindt, like his predecessor, Nancy Faeser (SPD), has reported rejections of migrants coming into Germany, but only from land borders. It remains unclear why airports were not included in tightened border measures.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 02:00

Control, Crisis, & Compliance: Endgame Logic Of Late Capitalism

Control, Crisis, & Compliance: Endgame Logic Of Late Capitalism

Authored by Colin Todhunter via Off-Guardiam.org,

It must be made clear from the start that, drawing on the work of sociologist Max Weber, capitalism is an ‘ideal type’ concept. An ideal type is a conceptual tool that highlights certain key characteristics of a phenomenon by accentuating some elements while omitting others. It is not meant to perfectly correspond to any specific real-world instance but serves as a construct to analyse and compare social or economic phenomena.

This framing is critical: while capitalism is often described as a system of free markets and voluntary exchange, in reality, it frequently relies on collusion, corruption and state-corporate coercion and violence. Having stated this, as an economic system, capitalism inherently requires constant growth, expanding markets and sufficient demand to sustain profitability.

However, as markets saturate and demand falls, overproduction and overaccumulation of capital become systemic problems, leading to economic crises. When capital cannot be reinvested profitably due to declining demand or lack of new markets, wealth accumulates excessively, devalues and triggers crises. This tendency is linked to a long-term decline in the capitalist rate of profit, which has fallen significantly since the 19th century.

Neoliberalism’s playbook

Capitalism in the form of neoliberal globalisation since the 1980s has responded to these crises by expanding credit markets and increasing personal debt to maintain consumer demand as workers’ wages are squeezed or they are made unemployed.

Other strategies have also been deployed. These include financial and real estate speculation, stock buybacks, massive bailouts, public asset selloffs, regulatory ‘reform’ and subsidies using public money to sustain private capital and boosting militarism, which drives demand in many sectors of the economy (one reason why Germany and other European countries are following in the footsteps of the US by boosting their spending on militarism and creating bogeymen as a justification).

These financial manoeuvres are not isolated tactics but part of a broader neoliberal agenda that also involves deregulating international capital flows and exposure to global capital markets, resulting in the obsession of maintaining ‘market confidence’ to hedge against capital flight and surrendering economic sovereignty to finance capital. We also see the displacement of production in other countries in order to capture foreign markets.

This global expansion of neoliberal capitalism is a form of imperialism, where powerful corporations and financial interests impose structural adjustments and policies that undermine local economies, especially in the Global South. The capture of new markets abroad is essential for capital accumulation and offsetting potential declining profitability at home.

This imperial dynamic is particularly visible in the agricultural sector. For instance, the process involves the destruction of indigenous rural economies, the imposition of chemical-dependent industrial agriculture and transformation of food systems to benefit global agribusiness oligopolies. Think too of the profit-driven technofixes being rolled out by Big Tech and Big Ag: the ultimate commodification and corporate capture of knowledge, seeds, data and so on under the crisis narrative of impending Malthusian catastrophe.

And this alludes to the fact that capital seeks ideological cover for its financial ambitions. The climate emergency narrative is being used to legitimise new financially lucrative instruments such as carbon trading and green investments, schemes designed to absorb surplus wealth under the guise of environmentalism. This reflects a broader pattern where perceived (or manufactured) crises are exploited to create speculative markets and investment opportunities that maintain capital accumulation.

COVID and Ukraine

This logic reached a new intensity during the COVID event, which provided a stark and recent illustration of how the ongoing crisis of neoliberal capitalism is exploited and managed, serving as a critical phase in its evolution. This event and associated lockdowns amplified structural inequalities and reshaped the dynamics of capital and control.

COVID was used as a strategy of ‘creative destruction’, accelerating the destruction of millions of livelihoods globally and pushing small businesses towards bankruptcy. Rather than providing genuine aid to the public, COVID policies and massive government spending primarily benefited large corporations—boosting their margins while forcing smaller enterprises to the brink and consolidating corporate power.

At the same time, COVID was used to justify unprecedented restrictions on freedoms, increased surveillance and digital control mechanisms. More on this later.

Lockdowns helped reshape capitalist accumulation patterns by externally imposing economic shutdowns that monetary policy alone could not achieve. They created conditions for increased indebtedness for households, small businesses and (Global South) nations, corporate bailouts and the imposition of new forms of control, thereby managing the contradictions of capitalism through non-market means.

According to Prof. Fabio Vighi of Cardiff University, financial markets were already collapsing before lockdowns were imposed; lockdowns did not cause the market crash in early 2022 but were imposed because financial markets were failing. Lockdowns effectively turned off the engine of the economy—suspending business transactions and draining demand for credit—which allowed central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, to flood financial markets with massive emergency monetary injections without triggering hyperinflation in the real economy. Looking at Europe, investigative journalist Michael Byrant says that €1.5 trillion was needed to deal with the financial crisis in Europe alone in 2020.

This strategy was designed to stabilise and restructure the financial architecture by halting the flow of economic activity temporarily, enabling a multi-trillion-dollar bailout of Big Finance and large corporations under the guise of COVID relief. A bailout that dwarfed anything seen during the 2008 financial crisis.

Lockdowns not only destroyed small businesses and accelerated corporate consolidation, but—unlike the 2008 bailouts—this process faced little opposition, as it was justified as a public health necessity.

While COVID marked one phase of crisis management, the subsequent war in Ukraine has further accelerated these dynamics. It has served to redirect flows of energy, finance and industrial capacity. The destruction of Europe’s energy ties with Russia—via sanctions, decoupling and sabotage—engineered a forced dependency on high-cost US liquefied natural gas, delivering record profits to American fossil fuel firms (in 2022 alone, US LNG exports to the EU more than doubled—from 22 to 56 billion cubic metres—making up over half of all US LNG exports).

As European industries faltered under the weight of inflation and energy instability, the US subordinated its allies through enforced dependency while securing new opportunities for accumulation at home. Dollar supremacy was reinforced, compliance internalised and capital relocated under the banner of war. In this scenario, Europe has become both a very junior partner and collateral damage with its economic sovereignty sacrificed on the altar of transatlantic profit realignment.

The state, crisis and control

This brings us to a broader understanding of the state’s role in maintaining the economic system. The state and ideology are crucial for maintaining capitalism’s economic base, with the state intervening through financial support and strategic market expansion. At the same time, ideology shapes public perception and legitimises actions by re-framing individual freedoms and exploiting crises like COVID and Ukraine to manage dissent and uphold elite power.

This ideological reconfiguration aligns with technological transformation. The rise of artificial intelligence and advanced automation technologies—such as robotics, driverless vehicles, 3D printing, drone technology and even ‘farmerless farms’—will reshape the traditional mass labour force that underpins capitalist economic activity: it is being profoundly transformed and, ultimately, significantly reduced.

Looking ahead, as economic activity is restructured through these technologies, the entire social infrastructure built to reproduce labour—mass education, welfare, healthcare—will be rendered increasingly unnecessary because fewer workers are needed to sustain production and services. This transformation alters labour’s classical role as a seller of labour power to capital, fundamentally changing the dynamics of the labour-capital relationship.

The question is: if labour is defined in terms of its relation to capital and is the condition for the existence of the working class, why bother with maintaining or reproducing labour?

In this context of social erosion, neoliberalism has already weakened trade unions, suppressed wages and increased inequality. And now the message is: get used to being poor or on the scrapheap, and dissent will not be tolerated.

From surveillance to subjugation

The so-called ‘Great Reset' anticipates a fundamental transformation of Western societies, resulting in permanent restrictions on liberties and mass surveillance.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) has speculated about a future where people ‘rent’ rather than own goods (as seen in the widely circulated ‘you will own nothing and be happy’ video), raising concerns about the erosion of ownership rights under the rhetoric of a ‘green economy’, ‘sustainable consumption’ and ‘climate emergency’.

Climate alarmism and the mantra of sustainability are about promoting money-making schemes. Beyond this, these narratives also serve to cement social control.

Neoliberalism has run its course, resulting in the impoverishment of large sections of the population. But to dampen dissent and lower expectations, the levels of personal freedom we have been used to will not be tolerated. This means that the wider population will be subjected to the discipline of an emerging surveillance state.

To push back against any dissent, ordinary people are being told that they must sacrifice personal liberty in order to protect public health, societal security or the climate. Unlike in the old normal of consumer-oriented neoliberalism, an ideological shift is occurring whereby personal freedoms are increasingly depicted as being dangerous because they run counter to the collective good.

In the 1980s, to help legitimise the deregulation-privatisation neoliberal globalisation agenda, government and media instigated an ideological onslaught, driving home the primacy of ‘free enterprise’, individual rights and responsibility and emphasising a shift away from the role of the ‘nanny state’, trade unions and the collective in society.

We are currently seeing another ideological shift. As in the 1980s, this messaging is being driven by an economic impulse. This time, the collapsing neoliberal project.

The masses are being conditioned to get used to lower living standards and accept them. At the same time, to muddy the waters, the message is that lower living standards are the result of mass immigration or supply shocks that both the Ukraine conflict and ‘the virus’ have caused.

The net-zero carbon emissions agenda will help legitimise lower living standards (reducing your carbon footprint) while reinforcing the notion that our rights must be sacrificed for the greater good. You will own nothing, not because the rich and their neoliberal agenda made you poor, but because you will be instructed to stop being irresponsible and must act to protect the planet.

Decreased consumption (your poverty) will be sold as being good for the planet by coopting the concept of ‘degrowth’; something to be imposed on the masses while elites continue to accumulate. This contrasts with genuine ecological or socialist degrowth proposals that would target elite consumption and redistribute resources.

Meanwhile, the framework is in place to ensure that huge corporations and the super-rich continue to rake in near-record profits through militarism, an energy transition, a food transition, speculative finance schemes involving land, carbon trading, data monetisation, surveillance capital, pharmaceuticals, green bonds, commodities and agribusiness, real estate and climate risk derivatives.

And there is always money available for Ukraine and various destabilisations around the world to further ensure the bottom line of giant corporations.

India as global microcosm

To illustrate global dynamics and the real-world impact of neoliberal policies, we can examine the case of India’s agricultural sector.

Structural adjustment programmes imposed by institutions like the IMF and World Bank or bilateral agreements with the US have forced countries like India to radically transform their agricultural sectors. Subsequent directives have demanded dismantling public support systems such as state-owned seed supply, subsidies and public agricultural institutions, while promoting export-oriented cash crops to earn foreign exchange.

This shift is part of a neoliberal agenda to further integrate agriculture into global capital markets, reduce the role of the public sector and open up the sector to foreign direct investment and multinational agribusiness corporations.

The outcome in India thus far has been devastating for millions of small-scale farmers and rural dwellers. Neoliberal reforms have led to spiralling input costs, dependency on proprietary seeds and agrochemicals and the erosion of traditional farming systems. This has resulted in widespread indebtedness, economic distress and a decline in the number of cultivators—millions have been pushed off the land, many driven to suicide, and hundreds of millions face jobless growth and rural displacement.

This restructuring facilitates the capture of agriculture by large agribusiness corporations and financial investors. These entities dominate global commodity trading and are increasingly consolidating control over seeds, inputs, logistics and retail. The public sector’s role is reduced to a facilitator of private capital, enabling the entrenchment of industrial, GMO-based commodity crop agriculture suited to corporate interests rather than local food security or ecological sustainability.

Contrast this with agroecology, a means to free farmers from dependency on manipulated commodity markets, unfair subsidies and food insecurity. Agroecology prioritises local food sovereignty, ecological sustainability and farmer knowledge, opposing the reductionist, industrial agriculture paradigm promoted by capitalist agribusiness.

In India, the policy of population displacement compels displaced rural workers to migrate to urban areas in search of precarious, low-paid employment or remain unemployed, swelling the ranks of a surplus labour force.

This reserve army of labour is not accidental but serves a strategic function within global capitalism. It helps suppress wages and weaken the bargaining power of workers and trade unions both in India and internationally. By maintaining a large pool of cheap and insecure labour, capital can discipline workers through competition and insecurity.

Moreover, many of these displaced Indian workers are absorbed into offshore factories and global supply chains, effectively acting as a tool to undermine labour rights and conditions in wealthier countries.

This analysis reflects the country’s incorporation into the global capitalist system, where rural displacement and labour ‘flexibility’ are central to maintaining capitalist dynamics.

There is a historical comparison to be made between the displacement of people from the land in England during the Industrial Revolution and the contemporary displacement of the peasantry in India under neoliberal capitalism. Just as the enclosure movement in England forcibly removed peasants from their land, pushing them into cities to become a labour force for emerging industrial capitalism, a similar process is unfolding in India today.

Benign language

This displacement is not simply a byproduct of ‘development’ but a deliberate process tied to capitalist accumulation and imperialist restructuring of agriculture, where local food systems and rural livelihoods are subordinated to corporate interests and global markets.

Global communications and business strategy company APCO Worldwide is a lobby agency with firm links to the Wall Street/corporate US establishment and facilitates its global agenda. Some years ago, following the 2008 financial crisis, APCO stated that India’s resilience in weathering the global downturn has made governments, policy makers, economists, corporate houses and fund managers believe that the country can play a significant role in the recovery of global capitalism.

Decoded, this means global capital moving into secure control of markets. Where agriculture is concerned, this hides behind emotive and seemingly altruistic rhetoric about ‘helping farmers’ and the need to ‘feed a burgeoning population’ (regardless of the fact this is exactly what India’s farmers have been doing). APCO talks about positioning international funds and facilitating corporations’ ability to exploit markets, sell products and secure profit.

And the state has been actively obliging. The plan is to displace the peasantry, create a land market and amalgamate landholdings to form larger farms that are more suited to international land investors and export-oriented industrial farming.

For instance, an MoU was entered into by the Indian government in April 2021 with Microsoft, allowing its local partner, CropData, to leverage a master database of farmers. CropData was to be granted access to a government database of 50 million farmers and their land records. As the database is developed, it will include farmers’ personal details, profiles of land held, production information and financial details.

The stated aim is to use digital technology to improve financing, inputs, cultivation and supply and distribution. The unstated aims are to impose a certain model of farming, promote profitable corporate technologies and products, encourage market (corporate) domination and create a land market by establishing a system of ‘conclusive titling’ of all land in the country so that ownership can be identified and land can then be bought or taken away.

Globally, the financialisation of farmland accelerated after the 2008 financial crisis. From 2008 to 2022, land prices nearly doubled throughout the world. Agricultural investment funds rose ten-fold between 2005 and 2018 and now regularly include farmland as a stand-alone asset class, with US investors having doubled their stakes in farmland since 2020.

Meanwhile, agricultural commodity traders are speculating on farmland through their own private equity subsidiaries, while new financial derivatives are allowing speculators to accrue land parcels and lease them back to struggling farmers, driving steep and sustained land price inflation.

As far as India is concerned, it is becoming a fully incorporated subsidiary of global capitalism. Displaced farmers and farm workers are pushed into urban sectors like construction, manufacturing and services, despite these sectors not generating enough jobs. This displacement facilitates the replacement of labour-intensive, family-run farms with large-scale, mechanised monoculture enterprises controlled by a few powerful transnational agribusiness corporations and financial institutions.

Moreover, India is being directed to rely increasingly on its foreign exchange reserves to buy food on the international market as it is forced to eradicate its buffer food stocks.

This process is driven by pressure from global agribusiness and finance capital, which seek to dismantle India’s public food procurement and distribution systems, including the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and the Public Distribution System (PDS). These state-backed mechanisms have historically ensured food security by maintaining strategic grain stocks and providing fair prices to farmers.

Eliminating these buffer stocks would mean that India would no longer physically hold and control its own food reserves. Instead, it would have to depend on volatile global markets to procure essential food supplies, using foreign currency reserves. This shift would make India vulnerable to price fluctuations, speculation by investment firms and manipulation by multinational corporations dominating global commodity markets.

The massive farmer protests in India were, in part, a resistance to these policies. Without buffer stocks, India would effectively be paying corporations such as Cargill to supply food, perhaps financed by borrowing on international markets.

Resistance and refusal

The narrative presented here reveals a deeply systemic crisis within capitalism—one that cannot be understood through isolated events, personality politics or short-term policy shifts.

From financialisation, predatory practices abroad and speculative markets to state-backed bailouts, war and digital surveillance, capitalism continually reinvents mechanisms to prolong its accumulation cycle.

This article exposes the underlying logic of an economic system marked by the increasing convergence of state and corporate power—a trajectory that points towards a shift away from ‘capitalism’, possibly towards a technocratic or even techno-feudalist system where e-commerce platforms, algorithms, programmable centralised currencies and monopolistic entities determine how we live.

Such developments raise urgent questions about the future shape of society and, crucially, how a mass movement might resist without being co-opted or subverted. Yet, recognising these dynamics is the essential first step in fostering informed debate and effective resistance.

However, the hegemonic class and its media and NGOs continue to divide the population along lines of race, religion, identity politics and immigration. They do anything and everything to sow division or sedate courtesy of gadgets, games, entertainment, infotainment and sports. Their media will do all it can to keep people in the dark about what is really happening and why.

But even when people do manage to see through the smokescreen, they will try to promote apathy, convincing people that nothing can be done about any of it anyway.

They will try anything to fragment opposition and suppress movements for systemic change.

That is not to say resistance is absent—far from it, especially in the realm of food and agriculture (discussed in my books on the global food system linked to at the end of this article).

The fightback against emerging digital authoritarianism is already underway and takes many forms: rights groups are challenging mass surveillance laws and practices in the courts; campaigns are mobilising to block or roll back digital ID schemes, facial recognition and mass data retention.

Mass mobilisations against surveillance infrastructure are growing, as are acts of refusal in the form of non-compliance with digital ID requirements, opt-outs and public data obfuscation campaigns. There is also a burgeoning movement to build and promote peer-to-peer, federated or blockchain-based social networks and communication tools and to develop grassroots internet infrastructure that bypasses state and corporate control.

International solidarity is crucial, too, to expose and resist the export of surveillance technologies and the global harmonisation of repressive policies.

Meanwhile hundreds of millions endure poverty and many more face declining living standards and welfare cuts. At the same time, the super-rich have stashed an estimated $50 trillion in hidden accounts (as of 2020) and have only grown wealthier in recent years.

And here lies the crux of the matter—economic power.

While resistance to the surveillance state and digital authoritarianism is vital, the deeper struggle is against the concentration of wealth and control in the hands of a global corporate and financial elite.

Across the world, workers, peasants and communities are organising through strikes, land occupations, agroecology, seed and food sovereignty movements, debt resistance and the fight to reclaim public goods. The task is to build movements capable not only of resisting but of transforming the structures of economic power that underpin the entire system.

For further insight into all the issues discussed here, readers can access the author’s open-access books which can be read or downloaded on Figshare (no sign in or sign up required).

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/01/2025 - 23:25

Trump Says Israel Agrees To 60-Day Gaza Ceasefire, Urges Hamas To Accept

Trump Says Israel Agrees To 60-Day Gaza Ceasefire, Urges Hamas To Accept

President Trump said Tuesday that Israel has agreed on terms for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza and warned Hamas to accept the deal before conditions worsen. 

Trump announced the development as he prepares to host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for talks at the White House on Monday. The US leader has been increasing pressure on the Israeli government and Hamas to broker a ceasefire and hostage agreement and bring about an end to the war in Gaza.

“My Representatives had a long and productive meeting with the Israelis today on Gaza. Israel has agreed to the necessary conditions to finalize the 60 Day CEASEFIRE, during which time we will work with all parties to end the War,” Trump wrote, saying the Qataris and Egyptians would deliver the final proposal.

“I hope, for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this Deal, because it will not get better – IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE,” he said.

Trump’s promise that it was his best and final offer may find a sceptical audience with Hamas. Even before the expiration of the war’s longest ceasefire in March, Trump has repeatedly issued dramatic ultimatums to pressure Hamas to agree to longer pauses in the fighting that would see the release of more hostages and a return of more aid to Gaza’s civilian populace.

Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer was in Washington on Tuesday for talks with senior administration officials to discuss a potential Gaza ceasefire, Iran and other matters. Dermer was expected to meet with US Vice-President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff.

Earlier on Tuesday, Trump repeated his hope for forging an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal next week.

Asked if it was time to put pressure on Netanyahu to get a ceasefire deal done, Trump said the Israeli prime minister was ready to come to an agreement.

“He wants to,” Trump said of Netanyahu in an exchange with reporters while visiting a new immigration detention facility in Florida. “I think we’ll have a deal next week.”

Talks between Israel and Hamas have repeatedly faltered over a major sticking point – whether the war should end as part of any ceasefire agreement. About 50 hostages remain captive in Gaza, with less than half believed to be alive.

The development came as over 150 international charities and humanitarian groups called on Tuesday for disbanding a controversial Israeli- and US-backed system to distribute aid in Gaza because of chaos and deadly violence against Palestinians seeking food at its sites.

The joint statement by groups including Oxfam, Save the Children and Amnesty International followed the killings of at least 10 Palestinians who were seeking desperately needed food, witnesses and health officials said. Meanwhile, Israeli air strikes killed at least 37 in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis, according to Nasser Hospital.

“Tents, tents they are hitting with two missiles?” asked Um Seif Abu Leda, whose son was killed in the strikes. Mourners threw flowers on the body bags.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/01/2025 - 23:00

How Iran War Exposed Limits Of Chinese Influence In Middle East

How Iran War Exposed Limits Of Chinese Influence In Middle East

Authored by Terri Wu via The Epoch Times,

The world had a moment of clarity during the Israel–Iran conflict.

For years, analysts have noted that China is closing in on the United States as a peer competitor, whether in terms of high-tech industries, naval fleets, or the size of its diplomatic corps.

That power shift seemed to have also played out in the Middle East, a region where the United States has traditionally held significant influence.

Two years ago, Beijing brokered the normalization of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Later the same year, the China-led BRICS bloc, designed to counterbalance the U.S.-led Western democracies, admitted four new members from the region: Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

The bloc was formed by Brazil, Russia, India, and China in 2009 and expanded to include South Africa in 2010.

However, the action of the United States—and the inaction of China—during the 12-day Israel–Iran conflict revealed that the power gap between Beijing and Washington remains sizable.

The United States joined its ally Israel in the conflict on June 21 by attacking key Iranian nuclear sites with 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs.

Two days later, President Donald Trump announced a cease-fire between Israel and Iran. The truce appears to be holding so far.

By contrast, Beijing’s support for Iran remained largely rhetorical.

The Chinese regime condemned Israel and criticized the United States over the strikes on Iran. It also released joint statements with member states of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a China- and Russia-led security grouping, expressing “grave concern” that the attacks on Iran violated international law.

The revelation of the power gap between the United States and China means that countries will move closer into Washington’s orbit, according to Yeh Yao-yuan, a professor of international studies at the University of St. Thomas in Houston.

That means Middle Eastern countries will shift from a pro-Beijing position to a neutral stance in the contest between China and the United States as the world moves into two camps led by the two powers, he told The Epoch Times.

Beijing is keenly aware that the U.S. focus is on Asia, particularly China, according to Christopher Balding, a senior fellow at the UK-based Henry Jackson Society. The Chinese regime deliberately kept a low profile during the Israel–Iran military conflict, he said.

“The more that they can keep the U.S. working on other non-China issues, I think that they see it as better for them,” Balding, also a contributor to The Epoch Times, told the publication.

According to China expert Alexander Liao, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is uncertain about its next steps.

“Beijing has realized that its existing assessment of the world—that the East is rising and the West is declining—doesn’t hold anymore,” Liao told The Epoch Times.

“Should they change the course of their strategic directions? If so, how? They haven’t made up their mind yet.”

Iran's Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh (C) attends the Shanghai Cooperation Organization defense ministers’ meeting in Qingdao, China, on June 26, 2025. The SCO’s nine official members include China, India, and Russia. China’s support has helped Iran sustain its economy and nuclear program despite decades of U.S. and UN sanctions. Pedro Pardo/AFP via Getty Images

Iran’s Role in China’s Plan

China’s support is the main reason Iran could sustain its economy and nuclear enrichment program despite decades of sanctions by the United States and the United Nations. The International Atomic Energy Agency verified a few days before the Israel–Iran conflict that Iran had 400 kilograms of enriched uranium.

Iran holds high geopolitical value to China. Its location, linking East and West, has made it an important node for the CCP’s Belt and Road Initiative. This foreign policy platform presents itself as a global infrastructure development program.

Chinese communist leader Xi Jinping visited Iran in 2016, during which the two countries formed a so-called comprehensive strategic partnership.

In 2021, Beijing and Tehran signed a 25-year agreement. China committed $400 billion in investments in telecom, banking, ports, and other infrastructure in Iran. In return, Iran agreed to supply China with oil.

Today, China purchases approximately 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil. Last year, the daily volume was about 1.5 million barrels, according to market intelligence company Kpler.

To circumvent sanctions, the oil trade between China and Iran is typically conducted in Chinese yuan or as a barter. This reduces trade volumes transacted in U.S. dollars and aligns with Beijing’s ambition to de-dollarize and increase the importance of the yuan in global trade.

The Rise of NATO

During this year’s NATO summit in The Hague, 32 member states agreed to increase defense spending to 5 percent of their gross domestic products (GDPs) by 2035.

That means the NATO military spending will more than double, given that members on average spent 2 percent of their GDPs in 2024.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, NATO members accounted for about 55 percent of the total $2.7 trillion in global military expenditure. With NATO’s double spending, the ratio is expected to increase to roughly 70 percent.

NATO also reaffirmed its “ironclad” commitment to Article 5, which states that any attack on a member country is an attack on all.

On June 25, the military alliance also released a statement, along with its Indo-Pacific partners, stating that “the security of the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific is interconnected.” The four partners are Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand.

The Chinese regime is monitoring NATO developments closely.

NATO heads of state and government pose for an official photo at the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, Netherlands, on June 25, 2025. Among other matters, 32 member states agreed to increase defense spending to 5 percent of their GDPs by 2035. A day later, China’s foreign ministry criticized the move as well as NATO’s increasing focus on the Asia-Pacific region. Omar Havana/Getty Images

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, in a post on social media platform X on June 26, criticized the spending boost and the alliance’s growing interest in the Asia-Pacific region.

Liao considers it “very likely” that democracies will expand their regional security alliances to one that’s global in scope.

“If such a significant expansion happens, it will be lethal to the Chinese Communist Party,” he said.

The expansion would mean that the Article 5-style commitment would cover Indo-Pacific nations, Liao said. He said he believes that the United States is poised to expand the current security alliance; it’s just waiting for the right time and opportunity.

“Any conflict with South Korea or Japan will evolve to a conflict with a group that accounts for 70 percent of global military spending,” he said. “This will make China’s goal of taking over Taiwan very challenging.”

Amy K. Mitchell, a founding partner at geopolitical consultancy Kilo Alpha Strategies, said that there’s a “very strong potential” that Trump will try to establish a NATO-like security alliance in the Indo-Pacific.

That would be a “very big legacy project for President Trump,” she told The Epoch Times.

For now, she sees the president himself and his unpredictability as the main deterrent to China.

“The Chinese Communist Party is probably rethinking how it’s going to handle the administration,” Mitchell said.

China still faces uncertainty in the ongoing trade war with the United States.

Beijing announced new controls on two fentanyl precursors on June 20, a day after a rare meeting between Chinese Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong and U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue. Wang told Perdue that the regime was open to collaboration on curbing narcotics and illegal immigration, according to Chinese state media reports.

The move was aimed at lifting the 20 percent fentanyl-related U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. The current tariff level on China is about 50 percent, which is the cumulative rate composed of fentanyl tariffs, 10 percent reciprocal tariffs, and existing levies from the Biden administration.

A worker moves pieces of steel machinery at a manufacturing company in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China, on June 16, 2025. China’s factory output rose less than expected in May amid continued uncertainty from its trade war with the United States. STR/AFP via Getty Images

China signed an additional trade agreement with the United States last week, detailing the terms negotiated in Geneva in May. For now, the 20 percent U.S. tariff tied to China’s role in fentanyl trafficking will remain.

Beijing’s slow walk on exporting rare earth elements has been a focal point in rounds of negotiations between the two countries.

The Chinese Commerce Ministry on June 27 stated that it would “review and approve eligible export applications for controlled items in accordance with the law” as a part of the framework agreement. While it did not explicitly mention rare earths, the statement was made in response to an unnamed reporter’s question on rare earths exports.

Rare earths are essential for producing permanent magnets, a must-have component of modern manufacturing. They are also critical to military and defense hardware. China’s export licenses only cover civilian purposes and need to be renewed every six months.

Balding said China is likely to hold more tightly onto its near-monopoly control over rare earth supply.

“In addition to demonstrating its power over the global economy, China does not want to be helping the U.S. military prepare when each side is focusing more and more on how to fight each other,” he said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/01/2025 - 22:35

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