Zero Hedge

Trump Throws Abraham Accords Monkey Wrench Into Saudi Nuclear Deal At 11th Hour

Trump Throws Abraham Accords Monkey Wrench Into Saudi Nuclear Deal At 11th Hour

President Trump has suddenly pulled back the reins on the Saudi nuclear deal, which is likely being felt as a major shock in Riyadh, given that the deal was already signed Wednesday by Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman.

Trump in a Thursday morning Truth social post declared that the deal will only be finally approved "totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords."

Upon Wednesday's signing, there was no mention of the Abraham Accords, also when the Energy Department hailed the deal on X, suggesting it was a 'done deal' and all wrapped up - although the text has not been released, and no definitive outlines have been publicly issued.

Also, the oil-rich kingdom did not mention anything about major stipulations like normalization with Israel, but instead an official statement only indicated that the deal would attempt to "diversify energy sources, advance cutting-edge technologies, and expand opportunities for cooperation and investment in ways that serve the mutual interests of the two friendly countries."

The deal has been controversial among US lawmakers, given it opens the potential for a Saudi path to a nuclear bomb, and broader proliferation in the Middle East. But Trump has sought to clamp down on such criticisms, stressing in his new statement there will ⁠be "no ⁠enrichment of ⁠material" under the agreement and that it "pertains only to non-military use."

The pact would allow US companies to build a uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia - but the country's direct ability to enrich automatically opens the pathway to future weaponization.

Saudi Arabia's entry into the Abraham Accords has long been a major Trump administration priority, going back to the launch of the accords in Trump's first term, after which the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and later Sudan and Morocco - formally signed on.

But then the Gaza war happened, and Saudi sentiment soured. Even if the kingdom's ruling monarchy wanted to go ahead and enter normalization with Israel, leaders would have an angry population and powerful clerical class to deal with.

Clearly Trump just threw a big monkey wrench into the whole thing at the 11th hour: "A senior administration official told NBC News on Wednesday that Trump had approved the deal, which was expected to be submitted to Congress for review."

via Middle East Institute (MEI)

One regional journalist and analyst, Mohammad Shabani, had this to say in reaction: "Either Saudi Arabia quietly agreed to normalization as a condition for buying nuclear technology, or Trump is once again responding to Israeli pressure after a deal is struck by attempting to change the terms."

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 10:10

White House Accuses Moonshot AI Of Distilling Anthropic Tech For K3

White House Accuses Moonshot AI Of Distilling Anthropic Tech For K3

Authored by Felix Ng via CoinTelegraph.com,

A White House official accused Moonshot AI of distilling Anthropic’s Fable AI model to develop Kimi K3, which launched last week.

In a post on X on Wednesday, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Director Michael Kratsios alleged the Chinese AI firm developed an internal platform to distill US models at scale, using methods designed to evade detection.

“Legitimate AI distillation used to create smaller, more efficient models plays a vital role in this open innovation ecosystem,” he said.

“However, large-scale, covert industrial distillation aimed at stealing proprietary U.S. technology and undermining American research is unacceptable.”

Kimi K3 has emerged as one of China’s most capable AI models, intensifying Washington’s concerns that American models are being covertly used to accelerate China’s AI progress.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the large-scale distillation attacks could result in sanctions and other restrictions.

“We support open-source AI and the innovation it unlocks. But open source is not open season on American IP,” said Bessent.

“When PRC firms conduct covert, industrial-scale distillation attacks that cross the line into IP theft, sanctions and Entity List designations will be on the table.”

Still, some AI researchers questioned claims that Anthropic’s latest AI model was used to train Kimi K3. 

Anthropic’s Fable 5 was re-released on July 1 after it was quickly taken offline due to US export controls, while Kimi K3 launched on July 16, giving a narrow window for distillation attacks to occur.

“There are only 15 days between fable 5 ban removal and kimi K3 release,” said Elie Bakouch, a researcher at AI startup Prime Intellect.

“I don’t think claiming that K3’s performance comes from fable distillation (even if they did it) makes sense technically.”

Dean Ball, OpenAI’s head of strategic futures, said on Friday he didn’t believe the K3 model’s performance could be “explained away by distillation or anything like that.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 09:50

Crop Prices Hit 3-Year High As Heat & War Stoke Supply Fears; Options Whale Places $20M Corn Bet

Crop Prices Hit 3-Year High As Heat & War Stoke Supply Fears; Options Whale Places $20M Corn Bet

The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index (BCOMAGSP) climbed to a three-year high Wednesday as widening conflict across critical energy and grain trade corridors, from the Black Sea to the Strait of Hormuz and the southern Red Sea, collided with scorching heat waves across Europe and the US and mounting El Niño risks in critical agri growing belts, reviving the threat of global food inflation.

BCOMAGSP is a dollar-denominated benchmark that tracks 10 major agricultural futures, including Chicago and Kansas City wheat, corn, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, coffee, cocoa, sugar, and cotton. On Wednesday, the index jumped to a level not seen since July 2023, continuing a seven-week advance.

Chicago wheat and soybean futures hit two-year highs as Russian and Ukrainian strikes in the Black Sea threatened grain shipments from a region responsible for more than a quarter of global wheat exports. Rising crude prices are also boosting demand for biofuel feedstocks, while heat waves in Europe and the US threaten critical agricultural growing regions.

Then there's the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is set to be the strongest in more than 75 years. This raises the risk of adverse weather conditions across the US, Asia, Australia, and South America. The stronger the weather event becomes, the greater the threat to critical food supply chains, which are already vulnerable to drought, flooding, export restrictions, and rising protectionism.

Sea Surface Temps

A negative El Niño Southern Oscillation Index indicates pressure patterns consistent with El Niño, typically associated with weaker Pacific trade winds and warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. The SOI is now at levels not seen since 2005.

El Niño Weather Impacts

El Niño coverage:

Must Read:

"What really drives the market is whether there is physical supply coming to those who need it," said Dennis Voznesenski, an agricultural economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, as quoted by Bloomberg.

Voznesenski pointed out that while factors such as heat and conflict in the Gulf area have been simmering for weeks, the Black Sea conflict was "the straw that broke the camel's back."

Given all this, Bloomberg reported that an option trade made a $20 million bet that corn futures will surge to their highest since 2023, as reduced US planting, record exports, and heat-damaged crops tighten the supply outlook. The trade involved 105,000 November $5.50/$6 call spreads, equivalent to more than 500 million bushels.

The position begins paying off if corn rallies nearly 15% to $5.50 a bushel and could generate about $250 million if prices reach $6. December futures rose 2% on Wednesday to $4.8475, extending their July gain to 11%.

Beyond the BCOMAGSP basket, the grain that feeds half the world, rice is creeping higher and higher...

The UN's global food basket is also creeping higher.

Bank of America: The Timing Of The Next Grocery Inflation Surge Revealed By BofA

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 09:30

Oil Soars As Trump Warns Iran Will Pay For Future Houthi Shipping Attacks, Rubio Rules Out Deal

Oil Soars As Trump Warns Iran Will Pay For Future Houthi Shipping Attacks, Rubio Rules Out Deal

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday that Iran is "begging for a deal" and "they need to come to their senses," adding that Tehran will "pay a very heavy price for the things they are doing." 

Speaking on the sidelines of the ASEAN conference in Manila, he claimed that "Iran is begging us, both directly and indirectly, 'Let’s do a deal. Let’s talk.'" But the reality remains that there's no public indicators showing this; instead, the Iranians have pretty aggressively sought to enforce their red lines, this week attacking a series of international ships in the Hormuz Strait.

Rubio tried to blame an alleged fracturing of the Iranian government, and a takeover by the 'hardline' faction of leadership. "The problem with Iran is every time they make a deal, the people in charge either break it or they want to change it. So it looks like they’re not ready to make a deal, so they’re going to continue to pay a price, and every night the price gets higher and higher," he asserted.

via Associated Press

Rubio then characterized Iran and its policies as "run by radical clerics" - calling them "oblivious" to its economic problems. In the background is the fact that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent months ago boasted that US policies and sanctions engineered a currency collapse in hopes that the January economic protests would topple the regime. This never materialized and now people in the Trump administration seem perplexed.

Rubio continued the blame-game while suggesting that if Tehran were to play ball on negotiating a deal for the Hormuz Strait, it could receive major economic benefits.

"Iran can be the richest country in the Middle East if they wanted to be. But instead, they take their money, and they use it and they give it to Hezbollah. They give it to Hamas. They give it to the Houthis. They give it to Shia militias. They give it to sponsored terrorism all over the world," he said.

Iran "will pay a very heavy price for the things they are doing. They are already paying a heavy price," he said. Rubio also responded to recent statements of the Iranians talking about exacting "an eye for an eye" in terms of military approach. The US top diplomat then asserted that President Trump's approach was "a head for an eye". He described that currently Iran's military-industrial base is being "decimated" - suffering "billions" of dollars" in damage. This as...

The US bombs Iran for the 12th consecutive night, killing at least two people and wounding 11 others in an attack on the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iraq. Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait have reported retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran.

But what's happening in the Red Sea right now does suggest that the Iranians have more cards to play. Their allies, the Houthis of Yemen, have initiated closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait to all Saudi shipping. At least two vessels were attacked, with unconfirmed but widely circulating video showing one on fire and in distress:

The attacks on the tankers pushed Brent up near $100 - its highest since May 26th...

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has newly announced he communicated to Saudi Crown Mohammed bin Salman Pakistan's strong condemnation of Houthi aggression against Saudi vessels.

"Such actions are unacceptable, violate international law, threaten freedom of navigation, and undermine regional peace and security," Sharif said in a statement on X. The PM emphasized that Pakistan stands "firmly and resolutely" with the Saudi leadership.

President Trump is threatening to take military action against the Houthis, and on Thursday morning took it a step further in saying he will hold Iran itself accountable for Houthi actions. "The US will hold Iran responsible," he wrote, explaining that "the Houthis area a Surrogate and/or Proxy of Iran." He warned that "major military punishment will be inflicted upon Iran and, of course, the Houthis" themselves.

As for Rubio's remarks, there were still clear signs that the administration hasn't totally abandon efforts to revive talks. "The president always prefers to negotiate and reach a deal… and we are prepared to do that. We've tried to do that now for a year and a half," Rubio had further stated from the ASEAN conference.

But then he again reverted to the argument: "If there’s any undermining of confidence, it’s confidence that the Iranian system as it currently is structured can reach an agreement." Rubio added, "Ships are trying to go through the Straits, and they’re getting blown up. Commercial ships are going through the Straits, and they’re being blown up."

As for the big picture of where things stand, Former National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent highlights to nature of the current 'all bad options' of the table and quagmire the White House has gotten itself into.

"This is a bombing campaign in search of a strategy," Kent wrote on X. We are choosing escalation when de-escalation remains an option, entrenching ourselves deeper into a broader war that we don’t have the capability or desire to sustain. There is not a military solution here that will lead to a win."

Kent noted that "More bombing will not convince Iran to open the SOH or to give us the deal we want, it will only harden their position. Bombing civilian infrastructure will not make the people rise up against the regime, it will rally them around it."

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 08:55

AIpocalypse No! Initial Jobless Claims Collapse To Lowest Since 1969

AIpocalypse No! Initial Jobless Claims Collapse To Lowest Since 1969

Amid ongoing exclamations of an AIpocalypse in the jobs market, the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time crashed to just 187k last week (well below expectations)...

That is the lowest since 1969...

Additionally, continuous jobless claims tumbled back below 1.8mm (1.796mm) Americans...

Zero signs of labor market stress in any of this data as the 'low hire, no fire' economy pushes forward.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 08:39

ECB Keeps Rates Unchanged (As Expected), Warns 'Full Energy Inflationary Shock Yet To Come'

ECB Keeps Rates Unchanged (As Expected), Warns 'Full Energy Inflationary Shock Yet To Come'

The European Central Bank  kept its key deposit rate unchanged at 2.25 percent and said it was "closely monitoring" the inflationary impact of fresh conflict in the Middle East.

The ECB reiterated it won’t pre-commit but act one meeting at a time based on information as it arrives.

"Uncertainty remains high and the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out," the lender of last resort for the 21 countries that use the euro said.

"The Governing Council is therefore closely monitoring the intensity and duration of the shock."

The ECB’s hawkish posture preserves its status at the vanguard of Group-of-Seven central banks after it last month became the first in that club to raise rates since the Iran war began.

Last month’s rate increase sparked discussions that the ECB might make a mistake similar to hikes in 2008 and 2011 which were quickly rolled back.

That debate persisted after peace talks between Washington and Tehran caused energy prices to drop sharply.

For all their sense of nervousness then however, the latest flare-up in fighting has emboldened policymakers in judging their recent hike to be fully justified.

“With today’s decision, the Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the conflict.”

The euro extended its overnight weakness against the dollar...

...and Bund yields remained elevated...

For now, traders are largely unmoved on the future ECB rate trajectory, holding around 48bps of hikes by year-end. As Bloomberg Economics' David Powell noted: 

“Even when oil prices were close to their lowest for the summer, President Christine Lagarde retained a hawkish tone. Buoyant commodity prices keep the Governing Council on track to raise borrowing costs again in September, when it’s armed with fresh forecasts from the staff economists, for a final time in this short tightening cycle.”

Deutsche Bank Chief European Economist Mark Wall says the ECB’s pause today shouldn’t be seen as hesitation. Rather, he says it’s a hold while the central bank updates forecasting before hiking in September. 

“The only question is: will one more hike to 2.50% be enough to curb the inflation risks? The answer will depend on growth as much as it will on inflation.”

The September meeting is widely seen as a natural point to deliver such a move if required, backed by new quarterly staff forecasts, inflation prints for the two prior months and more economic data including several business surveys.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 08:30

Elon Vows AI-Made 'Odyssey' After Blasting Nolan's Take On Homer

Elon Vows AI-Made 'Odyssey' After Blasting Nolan's Take On Homer

Via American Greatness,

Elon Musk says he’ll beat Hollywood at its own game, pledging that his artificial intelligence venture will produce a full-length film of Homer’s “The Odyssey” by year’s end, one he insists will stay faithful to the ancient text in a way Christopher Nolan’s blockbuster adaptation has not.

Musk, believed to be the first trillionaire in modern history, unveiled the project Tuesday evening on X, posting AI-generated footage from Grok Imagine depicting a scene from the epic poem.

“Before this year ends, Grok Imagine will make a full-length movie of ‘The Odyssey’ that is historically accurate and true to the art of Homer,” he wrote, offering no further details on production, casting or distribution.

In a follow-up post, Musk said he was “down” with a fan’s pitch to instead hand the project to actor and director Mel Gibson, backed by $100 million, to produce “an Odyssey adaptation with painstakingly historically accurate ships, armour, weapons and casting, with all dialogue taken straight from the original poem and delivered in Homeric Greek.”

The announcement is the latest salvo in Musk’s long-running feud with Nolan’s “The Odyssey,” a Matt Damon-led adaptation Musk has criticized repeatedly over its casting choices.

In January, Musk wrote that “Chris Nolan lost his integrity,” responding to a post that called the film “an insult to the author” over the casting of Lupita Nyong’o as Helen of Troy.

In May, after conservative commentator Matt Walsh suggested Nolan cast Nyong’o only to avoid being labeled “racist,” Musk replied with a single word: “True.”

Musk’s criticism hasn’t dented the film’s commercial performance, however. The R-rated, three-hour epic pulled in a $120 million opening weekend, according to Breitbart News, far exceeding pre-release industry projections of $80 million to $90 million.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 08:20

Futures Slide After Google Earnings, Oil & Bond Yields Jump On Houthi Escalation

Futures Slide After Google Earnings, Oil & Bond Yields Jump On Houthi Escalation

US equity futures are lower as WTI breaches $90/bbl and Brent approaches $100/bbl (Houthi escalation in the Red Sea as two Saudi tankers were struck), pushing bond yields higher with longer-dated yields seen making new highs, globally. But, Alphabet's underwhelming results - while dragging down Mag7 names - are boosting Semis / AI (CapEx spend) which may mean the market is returning to its barbell of longs in AI / Semis plus Energy versus shorts in Rate-sensitives.

*  *  *

Overnight saw oil prices extend their recent resurgence with WTI crude topping $90/bbl. The Iran-aligned Houthis said they targeted two oil tankers in the Red Sea, potentially opening up another front in the war.

US forces struck Iranian military targets including maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites, and air defense assets, Centcom said.

Commodities are led by the Energy complex; Base is higher, Precious is lower, and Ags mixed.

Pre-mkt, US yields are up 3-4bps across the curve with USD flat.

The surge in crude prices has dragged rate-hike odds higher (July very much back on the table)...

In Equities, Mag7 is weaker with all 7 names lower with GOOGL, TXN, TSLA, and IBM all lower following earnings. 

Semis / Memory are bid. Defensives and Energy are higher with Cyclicals mostly lower ex-Industrials which are being boosted as part of the AI theme.

Utils are bid with AI outweighing higher yields. 

European stocks fall as technology shares are dragged lower by STMicroelectronics, which slumped 17% after disappointing with its sales outlook.

Elsewhere, Nestle posted its biggest intraday drop since 2020.

Stoxx 600 falls 0.6% to 642.78 with 405 members down, 184 up, and 11 unchanged.

Asian shares rose as sentiment improved on expectations that regional tech hardware companies will benefit from Alphabet’s plans for more AI spending. 

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.4%, led by Samsung and SK Hynix.

A Bloomberg gauge of Asian chip shares advanced as much as 1.7%, extending its gains for a third session after tipping into a bear market last week.

Gains in artificial intelligence and semiconductor shares pushed the benchmarks in South Korea and Japan higher. 

Thursday’s moves across Asian markets reflect investors’ willingness to prioritize AI enthusiasm, earnings and capital spending plans in the short-term over geopolitical tensions that linger, primarily from the Middle East.

Top Overnight News

  • The ECB is expected to maintain interest rates at 2.25% today, buying time to assess the fallout from renewed Middle East hostilities.

  • A rally in Indonesian stocks put the nation’s benchmark index on track for a bull market, helped by a rotation into market laggards as well as a recent credit-rating announcement.

  • The oil price has risen above $98 a barrel for the first time since early June after Iran-backed Houthi militants said they had attacked two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea. 

  • The U.S. is surging forces, medics and weaponry to the Middle East to give President Trump more muscular military options as he considers expanding the conflict against Iran, according to people familiar with the matter.

  • The U.S. military used a B-1 long-range bomber on Tuesday to strike Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in Iran, U.S. officials said. It was the first time the U.S. conducted a B-1 mission since fighting with Iran resumed 12 days ago.

  • Russia is set to receive a shipment of fuel from India, as Moscow is forced to import petrol after Ukrainian drone attacks destroyed parts of its major refineries.

  • A rare surge in Latin American currencies is squeezing exporters by reducing the value of US dollar-denominated revenue. Coffee growers, banana producers and manufacturers face shrinking margins despite stronger investor confidence.

  • Allies of Donald Trump have discussed whether an external review of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse might justify removing Fed Governor Michael Barr over his role overseeing bank supervision at the time, people familiar said.

  • Private equity takeovers of software groups are at a turning point as investors hunt for bargains among companies at risk of being disrupted by AI.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

EQUITIES
  • European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.6%) started Thursday's busy earnings day in the red, with higher energy prices and disappointing earnings weighing on indices. On the geopolitical front, the US and Iran exchanged strikes for the 12th consecutive night, while US President Trump said Iran is getting hit so hard and that they want to make a deal. Additionally, Yemeni Houthis targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, while reports noted that at least 9 ships have stopped passing through Bab al-Mandeb, following the blockade on Saudi ports by Houthis.
  • Sectors highlight the negative bias. Energy (+1.6%) tops the sector pile, with Real Estate (+0.8%) also printing decent gains. Food, Beverages & Tobacco (-2.9%) is the sector laggard, following Nestle earnings in which RIG missed estimates. Consumer Products & Services (-2.0%) and Travel & Leisure (-1.5%) rounds out the key underperformers.
  • A lot of big European earnings this morning, with focus concentrated on STMicroelectronics figures. Its Q2 metrics beat estimates; however, its guidance and commentary have driven the biggest drop in shares since October 2025 (-13.8%). The Co. guided Q3 net revenue of "about" USD 3.7bln, which missed analysts' expectations, and raised its revenue ambition for data centres due to continued strong demand. Citi analysts say that shares already reflect a recovery across its end markets and acceleration in revenue from data centres. Additionally, analysts say that shares may struggle in the near-term.
  • US equity futures are softer across the board, with downside in tech-heavy NQ weighed on by STMicroelectronics earnings. Mag-7 earnings kicked off yesterday after the bell, with Alphabet and Tesla reporting Q2 metrics. For GOOGL (-3.9% pre-market), it sharply raised its AI capex forecast (which benefited Asia-Pac chip names overnight). For TSLA (-5.6% pre-market), Q2 figures disappointed, as adj. EPS missed estimates.
  • Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 9.11 (exp. 2.88), Revenue 119.8bln (exp. 117.00bln), Operating income 40.77bln (exp. 40.55bln), Capex 44.92bln (exp. 44.15bln). Raises FY26 capex view to USD 195bln-205bln (prev. 180bln-190bln).
  • Tesla Inc. (TSLA) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.33 (exp. 0.52), Revenue 28.2bln (exp. 25.99bln), Gross margin 16.8% (exp. 19.4%), Automotive revenue 20.52bln (exp. 18.68bln).
  • Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
  • Click for the additional news
FX
  • G10s are mixed after initial losses for the Greenback were reversed as energy prices continue to determine bias. Action which has benefitted energy exporters CAD and NOK, the sole currencies firmer against the Buck.
  • USD erased earlier modest losses as energy lifted to session highs with the Brent Sept’26 contract approaching levels not seen since May. Geopolitics remains constructive for the Buck, and there are no signs of immediate de-escalation - focus on Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian vessels alongside flows through Bab al-Mandeb. Elsewhere, US earnings after the NY close were received poorly, with Google and Tesla slipping between 3-5% premarket, hitting indices and potentially increasing appetite for the Buck’s haven status. DXY rose from beneath the 21DMA @101, to mark a high at recent resistance near 101.20/1.
  • EUR is lacklustre against the Buck ahead of the ECB meeting, where just 4bps of tightening is implied by markets. The Governing Council is likely to convey a hawkish message after the recent energy pressures. Should the bank stand pat on rates as analysts/markets expect, focus will be on guidance which could spur a move above two fully priced 25bp hikes by year-end. EUR/USD is well off highs made early in the domestic session, though found support towards 1.14. ING says this morning its near-term bias is tilted to the downside, noting if Gulf newsflow lacks signs of de-escalation, it looks for the pair to slip towards 1.1380 in the coming days.
  • AUD is resilient against the Buck after strong jobs numbers overnight. The data saw headline Employment Change smash estimates at 76.3k (exp. 15k), and the Unemployment Rate remained at 4.4% despite higher Participation. It appears NZD is used as a funder to express AUD hawkishness given USD swings on geopolitics, with AUD/NZD +0.4%, while AUD/USD is flat.
  • TRY looks to the CBRT meeting, where analysts have shifted calls for easing in exchange for a hold amid the recent energy pressures. Turkish inflation eased to 32.1% Y/Y in June from 32.6% in May, as energy prices fell following the US-Iran MoU, which has since broken down. Despite the softer print, most analysts still forecast year-end inflation above the CBRT’s 26% target (incl. GS, MUFG at 30%), suggesting rates will remain higher for longer, particularly after the recent resurgence in Gulf tensions. Banks mostly expect the bank to stand pat on its key rate; HSBC said it could instead adjust its funding policy, lowering the average funding cost for commercial banks without formally changing the policy rate; JPMorgan expects the CBRT to resume one-week repo auctions, while Garanti BBVA, which recently shifted its call, expects a hold, but does not rule out easing. USD/TRY is lacklustre ahead of the decision.
FIXED INCOME
  • A bearish start for fixed income as energy climbed overnight and into the European morning after the 12th consecutive evening of action by the US in the Middle East. Action that has taken Brent above USD 98/bbl and weighed on global yields.
  • Overnight, JGBs reacted to the above and also a Reuters source report from Wednesday that the BoJ is alert to inflationary risks that could result in tightening taking place faster than the market is pricing. JGBs down to a 127.04 base, lower by just over 20 ticks.
  • USTs hold at a 108-09 low, with downside of just a few ticks on the day. Today’s docket features weekly claims (initial claims coincide with the BLS survey window), before a 10yr TIPS auction and the latest Chicago Fed.
  • Bunds under pressure as above, down to a 124.17 base at worst but currently holding around 15 ticks clear of that but still lower by over 20 ticks on the day. Action that has pushed the 10yr yield to a 3.2% peak, just above May’s best to a new YTD high, a dynamic that is also reflected at the short-end, where the 2yr has notched a new YTD peak of 2.88%.
  • Energy has driven much of this, but the short-end is also likely being spurred further by the associated implications for the ECB. While a hold is the base case today, the accompanying guidance may well be more hawkish and explicit than the usual no-signal, data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach we have become accustomed to. Note, given the moves in recent days, more hawkish guidance may only spark a modest hawkish reaction, while a reiteration of the above non-committal language could see a relatively more pronounced dovish move. However, again, any such reaction would likely be limited in nature as geopolitics and, by extension, energy dictate the narrative.
  • Gilts opened lower and underperformed, in the typical action seen when energy is bid. Opened with losses of 15 ticks and then slipped to an 86.07 base, just above the 86.03 low from April but some way clear of May’s 84.98 contract trough. No real reaction to commentary from UK Chancellor Healey this morning, who stuck with familiar language. The day ahead for UK rates may take direction from the ECB as outlined above, as any hawkish nod from Europe would be in contrast to the on hold for the foreseeable narrative which remains around the BoE, despite the dissenters and clearly contrasting views on Threadneedle Street.
COMMODITIES
  • Middle Eastern geopolitics continues to dominate price action, with the US and Iran exchanging strikes for the 12th consecutive night, whilst US President Trump said Iran is getting hit so hard and that they want to make a deal. He added that Iran will be ready very soon but is not ready for a deal yet. Hostilities across the region have also expanded, as Yemeni Houthis targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, while reports noted that at least 9 ships have stopped passing through Bab al-Mandeb, following the blockade on Saudi ports by Houthis. On that note, Pakistan's Foreign Ministry, on the Yemeni Houthi threat, said, "If our ships are attacked, it will be treated as an attack on Pakistan, and we will retaliate”. As a reminder, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defence pact in September 2025. The treaty states that an attack on one nation is considered an attack on both. If the Houthis launch severe ballistic missile strikes on Saudi territory or fully disrupt its vital energy exports, Riyadh could formally trigger this pact. This could further complicate the picture as Pakistan is the main mediator in US-Iran talks. Further on this front, Pakistani PM Sharif held a call with Saudi Crown Prince MBS; the two condemned the Houthi militia’s attacks against Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea; and reaffirmed Pakistan's "complete solidarity" with Saudi Arabia. Elsewhere, reports noted the sound of an explosion was heard in Qatar and Jordan, whilst an explosion was also heard in Iran around Qeshm city near Konarak. Elsewhere in geopolitics, US Secretary of State Rubio said he had a good and frank conversation with the Russian Foreign Minister; the US is prepared to take a constructive role to end the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, EU Ambassadors have reached a political agreement on the 21st sanctions package against Russia, according to diplomats; additionally, the bloc is to freeze the oil price cap for a 12-month period.
  • WTI and Brent futures at session highs. WTI Sep’26 trades beyond the USD 90/bbl mark, currently at the top end of its USD 87.32-90.35/bbl range. Brent Sep’26 resides near USD 98.50/bbl in a USD 94.89-98.75/bbl range. Dutch TTF prices have waned after hitting resistance near EUR 64/MWh before dipping sub-62.50/MWh. This morning, sources reported that buyers of LNG from Qatar and the UAE are seeking lower prices and stronger supply guarantees as risks to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increase.
  • Precious metals are softer as rising oil prices once again hit by the rising oil prices. Spot gold trades in a USD 4,087-4,141/oz range, within yesterday’s USD 4,076-4,166/oz range. Spot silver briefly dipped under yesterday’s 58.73/oz low to currently trade towards the bottom end of a USD 58.66-60.07/oz range.
  • Base metals are mostly lower amid the inflationary impact of higher oil prices. 3M LME copper trades towards the lower end of a USD 13,709.00-13,873.70/t range.
  • Buyers of LNG from Qatar and the UAE are seeking lower prices and stronger supply guarantees as risks to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increase, according to sources.
  • Kazakhstan's daily oil production fell after loading operations were suspended at the CPC export terminal on the Black Sea, sources say, output down 21% on Wednesday vs July average

TRADE/TARIFFS

  • China's MOFCOM said China and the US are working towards the tariff cut plan; to maintain close communication.
  • UAE Foreign Trade Minister said imports of high-end US AI chips expected soon, Bloomberg reported.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • The UK PM announced that pubs, clubs and live music venues are set to receive a 20% cut to their business rates bills, saving the typical pub an estimated GBP 1,100/yr.
  • UK Chancellor Healey said he is as concerned about the cost of business as the cost of living.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • US President Trump said the government will face a shutdown in September.
  • Some Trump admin officials and allies have privately discussed whether an external review of the 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank could provide a legal basis to remove Fed Governor Barr, according to Bloomberg.
  • US is investigating Chinese AI firm Moonshot over chip access, with the BIS probing if the Co. used US chips for model training, according to The Information.
  • Trump admin is reportedly divided about restricting Chinese AI models, with the White House mulling preventing Chinese labs from distilling US models, and Commerce Department favours incentivising US companies to develop open models to counter China
GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

  • US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran was intending to double missile stockpile and that it looks like Iran is not ready to make a deal. He added that the price on Iran will get higher every night until they come to their senses but that Iran is begging to reach a deal.
  • US CENTCOM said the US completed the 12th consecutive night of strikes against Iran, in which the US struck Iranian military targets including maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, surveillance sites and defence assets.
  • US military has started using B-1 long-range bombers in its strikes against Iran, according to i24's Stein citing a source that stated the first strike using the bomber was conducted on Tuesday.
  • A senior US official said negotiations continue but the decisive moment for expanding hostilities is rapidly approaching, N12 reported.
  • There were several explosions heard in Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan while sirens were sounded in Bahrain. In Iran, explosions were heard in Bushehr, Bandar Mahshahr, Sirik, Konarak City and Ramshir. Additionally, Iranian media reported that a power station was hit by a missile near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the south of the country, according to Sky News Arabia.
  • IRGC said one of three offending ships attempting to pass the Strait of Hormuz caught fire and the other two quickly turned back, while it also targeted US bases in Jordan, and declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Additionally, the IRGC said it targeted US military in Kuwait's Al-Adiri camp and Ali Al-Salem Airbase.
  • Yemen's Houthis announced they targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. In other reports, at least 9 ships have stopped passing through Bab al-Mandeb, following the blockade on Saudi ports by Houthis.
  • Two Chinese supertankers carrying Saudi crude are heading to Bab al-Mandeb, according to reports citing data.
  • Pakistani PM Sharif held a call with Saudi Crown Prince MBS. The two condemned the Houthi militia’s attacks against Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and reaffirmed Pakistan's "complete solidarity" with Saudi Arabia.
  • Pakistan's Foreign Minister, on US-Iran talks, said they can not confirm 10-15 days or anything because these are confidential communications but they have not lost hope even during the darkest days of this escalation cycle.
  • Pakistan's Foreign Ministry, on the Yemeni Houthi threat, said that if Pakistani ships are attacked, it will be treated as an attack on Pakistan and will retaliate.
  • UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 70NM of Al-Shuqaiq, Saudi Arabia, with a tanker reported to have been struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire on board.
  • Oman’s Foreign Ministry said it is working with Saudi Arabia and Yemeni parties and the UN special envoy to resume the political process aimed at achieving regional security and stability.
  • The US is on course to get no new military spending before the election and they are warning it could be a huge problem for them amidst the war with Iran, according to Semafor.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • US Secretary of State Rubio said he had a good and frank conversation with the Russian Foreign Minister and the US is prepared to take a constructive role to end the war in Ukraine.
  • Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov confirmed that Russia is prepared to resolve the conflict in Ukraine through political and diplomatic means, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry.
  • EU Ambassadors have reached a political agreement on the 21st sanctions package against Russian, according to diplomats. Additionally, to freeze the oil price cap for a 12 month period.

OTHER

  • China is conducting live fire, military drills in some areas of the Taiwan Strait on Thursday and Friday.
CRYPTO
  • Bitcoin continues to pare back Tuesday's gains but remains firmly above the USD 65k mark.
APAC TRADE
  • APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as semiconductor strength helped the region shrug off the lacklustre lead from Wall Street and the widening geopolitical escalation in the Middle East.
  • ASX 200 was lifted amid outperformance in the commodity-related and materials sectors, while sentiment was also helped by strong jobs data.
  • Nikkei 225 rallied at the open but is well off today's best levels amid higher oil prices and after hitting resistance around the 67,000 level.
  • KOSPI remained driven by semiconductor advances with both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the green, while chaebols dominated the list of biggest gainers and participants also digested stronger-than-expected South Korean GDP data.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed, with Hong Kong led higher by strength in mining names, while the mainland was lacklustre as trade-related frictions lingered, with the US investigating Chinese AI firm Moonshot over chip access and whether the Co. used US chips for model training.

Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Inflation has remained top of the agenda for markets this morning, with Brent crude moving up to almost $96/bbl overnight as the Middle East escalation continues. Indeed, the strikes between the US and Iran show no sign of easing, and the Houthis said they targeted two oil tankers in the Red Sea yesterday, raising fears that the conflict is widening. So that’s pushed oil prices up to a 7-week high, and has also fuelled speculation about more rate hikes. For instance, futures are currently pricing in a 36% probability of a Fed rate hike as soon as next week, and bond yields jumped as well, with the US 30yr real yield (+0.4bps) closing at a post-2008 high of 2.93% yesterday. So it was a tough backdrop, and equities struggled to gain traction too, with the S&P 500 down -0.14% yesterday, whilst futures are down another -0.13% this morning following earnings from Alphabet and Tesla.

We’ll start with the geopolitics, as the US-Iran conflict has shown no sign of easing, and there’s still no indication of any emerging peace deal either. In fact, President Trump posted yesterday that if Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, then the US would “bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT”. And shortly after, Trump said in person that Iran would pay a big price after US troops were killed, whilst Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi posted that aggression against Iran “will compel a powerful and decisive response”, and that those “who contribute to such aggression, whatever the kind of support, will also be considered as legitimate targets”. Overnight, US Central Command confirmed that they’d completed another round of strikes against Iran, whilst oil markets have come under fresh pressure given the news about the Houthis targeting two oil tankers in the Red Sea. So that’s raised fresh supply fears given Saudi Arabia has redirected oil exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

That backdrop drove a fresh jump in commodity prices, with oil prices continuing to move higher. So Brent crude jumped +3.36% to $94.07/bbl by yesterday’s close, and is up a further +1.96% this morning to $95.94/bbl. Moreover, investors also priced in a longer period of high oil prices, and the 6-month Brent future (+0.59%) hit a one-month high of $81.74/bbl yesterday as well. And elsewhere, the energy shock was extending beyond oil prices, with European natural gas futures (+4.82%) exceeding their recent high back in March yesterday, closing at levels last seen in early 2023, at €62.54/MWh.

The latest rise in energy prices led to fresh concerns about a more prolonged stagflationary shock, with investors pricing in more inflation as a result. In fact, the 1yr Euro inflation swap (+4.7bps) was up for an 8th consecutive day to 2.64%, whilst the 1yr US inflation swap (+1.2bps) also rose to 2.05%. Unsurprisingly, that also saw investors price in a more hawkish path for central banks. So Fed futures are now pricing in a 36% chance of a rate hike next week, having now unwound most of the moves after the downside CPI surprise last week. And over in Europe, investors are now pricing in 48bps of further hikes by year-end, on top of the 25bps we had last month. Indeed, that’s the most hawkish path priced for the ECB in the last couple of months.

With markets expecting more inflation and more rate hikes, that meant sovereign bonds took a fresh hit on both sides of the Atlantic as well. So US Treasury yields moved higher, with the 2yr yield (+3.5bps) up to 4.30%, its highest since February 2025, whilst the 10yr yield (+2.7bps) hit its highest since May, at 4.66%. In addition, there were some fresh milestones for real yields, with the 2yr real yield (+3.0bps) up to its highest since September 2024, at 2.34%, whilst the 10yr real yield (+1.6bps) hit its highest since October 2023, at 2.36%. Over in Europe there were more marginal increases, but yields on 10yr bunds (+0.7bps), OATs (+0.6bps) and BTPs (+0.8bps) all moved higher as well.

As all that was happening, equities have put in a much more mixed performance over the last 24 hours. In the US the tone has been more negative, with the S&P 500 down -0.14%. But in other regions things have been much more positive, and overnight we’ve seen the KOSPI (+3.98%), the Hang Seng (+1.34%) and the Nikkei (+0.52%) all advance. The main exception has been in mainland China, where the CSI 300 (-0.20%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.19%) are both lower. But the European indices put in a solid performance as well yesterday, with the STOXX 600 up +0.58%.

US equity futures have continued to lose ground overnight following Alphabet and Tesla’s earnings after the US close. Alphabet delivered a solid earnings and revenue beat, reporting 82% yoy growth in cloud revenue in Q2 ($24.8bn vs $22.5bn est.). But its shares fell by over -3% in after-hours trading as the company increased its 2026 capex plan to a range of $195-205bn (vs. $186bn est.). And Tesla fell by over -4% after-hours after the company reported its first negative quarter of free cash flows in over two years, as solid auto sales were outweighed by a 47% yoy surge in operating costs. So futures on the S&P 500 are down another -0.13% this morning.

In general however, the equity picture has been pretty resilient over the last 24 hours, despite the latest uptick in oil prices, with fresh gains in Asia overnight. That might seem striking, but we’ve written before (link here) how oil prices beneath $100/bbl haven’t been enough to cause a meaningful dent in risk assets. Indeed, if you look earlier in the year, it wasn’t until they got to around $110/bbl that you saw meaningful vulnerabilities for equities and credit. Likewise, back in the 2022 energy shock, it was a similar real-terms threshold for Brent (above $110/bbl in today’s prices) that started to cause meaningful stress, which we’re still some way from right now. So for now at least, the current pattern is still consistent with what we saw earlier in the year.

Elsewhere in Asia, the yen did briefly strengthen yesterday after a Bloomberg report said that BoJ officials were open to faster rate hikes than the consensus expected. According to the report, it said officials were aware of expectations for hikes roughly every six months, but they were open to earlier moves instead. Moreover, the article said there were signs of inflation becoming more entrenched, whilst the yen’s decline meant there were further inflationary pressures. Those gains were then pared back, and this morning the yen is still trading at 163.06 per US dollar. However, front-end yields have continued to climb, with Japan’s 2yr yield (+2.5bps) at a post-1995 high of 1.48% this morning.

Otherwise overnight, the Australian dollar has strengthened +0.28% against the US dollar after the latest employment data for June led to mounting expectations of another RBA rate hike this year. The data showed employment up by +76.3k in June (vs. +15.0k expected), which was the biggest monthly jump in 14 months.

Looking forward, today’s main highlight will be the ECB’s policy decision at 13:15 London time. It’s widely expected they’ll keep rates on hold, after hiking at the last meeting in June. But given the latest surge in oil and gas prices, the focus will be on what they signal ahead, with markets pricing almost two further hikes by year-end. Our European economists think the ECB will maintain neutral communications in the press conference. So no explicit forward guidance, with an emphasis on a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach that avoids pre-committing to a specific path. However, they do think the ECB will convey a hawkish stance on inflation, consistent with another 25bp hike in September being highly probable. For more info, see their full ECB preview here.

Otherwise in Europe, UK gilts saw a very marginal outperformance after the June CPI data surprised on the downside. It showed headline inflation falling more than expected to +2.6% in June (vs. +2.7% expected). However, some of the details weren’t quite as dovish in their implications, with core CPI actually remaining at +2.6% (vs. +2.5% expected). So 10yr gilt yields were still up up +0.5bps on the day, only slightly beneath the +0.7bps increase for 10yr bunds.

Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be the ECB’s monetary policy decision and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. Otherwise, data releases include the US weekly initial jobless claims, and the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence indicator for the Euro Area in July. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Intel.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 08:05

Nestle Shares Plunge Most Since Dot-Com Bust As Weak Volume Shatters High Hopes Of Turnaround

Nestle Shares Plunge Most Since Dot-Com Bust As Weak Volume Shatters High Hopes Of Turnaround

Nestlé shares in Switzerland tumbled the most in 24 years after North American sales volumes unexpectedly contracted, undercutting investor confidence in CEO Philipp Navratil's turnaround efforts.

Organic sales rose a better-than-expected 3.7% in the second quarter, but real internal growth in North America fell 0.6%, while an infant formula recall and the Gulf conflict weighed on operations.

"Given the rally, we don't think the real internal growth print is quite good enough and expect some profit taking," Barclays analyst Warren Ackerman said in a note.

Ackerman said, "NESN's turnaround is a work in progress, and expectations were too elevated, which explains the steepest fall in the shares since 2020."

If the 7.2% decline holds through the European close, it would mark Nestlé's steepest one-day loss since July 22, 2002, according to Bloomberg data.

Shares peaked around 127 euros in late 2021 and have since fallen 44% into a 4.5-year bear market. Any upside momentum seen this year has stalled - for now - as hopes of a turnaround dim. 

Ackerman added, "Coffee and Petcare remained strong, but were not sufficient to offset weakness elsewhere."

Here's what other institutional desks are saying (courtsey of Bloomberg):

Citi (neutral)

  • Cedric Besnard doesn't expect changes to consensus expectations on the back of the print "as the end of the sequential H2 margin acceleration narrative is actually aligned with current expectations"
  • "Especially after a relatively strong share price performance recently, we would not expect a re-rating," Besnard writes

Vontobel (buy)

  • "Nestle is showing clear execution on the key priorities, marking a meaningful milestone in this new strategic roadmap," Jean-Philippe Bertschy writes
  • Adds accelerating RIG, cost savings and improving cash generation are particularly reassuring given higher advertising and marketing spend

Nestlé also agreed to sell half of its Perrier and S.Pellegrino water business to Platinum Equity for 3 billion euros in cash, creating a 50-50 venture valued at 4.9 billion euros. The deal advances Navratil's plan to shed underperforming assets and refocus the company heavily on coffee, pet care, nutrition, food and snacks.

Navratil is pulling every lever to stabilize the sinking ship, and the strategy appears to be working.

As CFO Anna Manz told investors on an earnings call earlier today: "You see us manage, as we have in the first half, any elements that come our way quite consistently, and that's why we're maintaining our margin guidance today."

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 07:45

RBC Commodities Chief Warns "War Entering Dangerous Phase" As Chokepoint Chaos Risks Oil Above 2008 Peak

RBC Commodities Chief Warns "War Entering Dangerous Phase" As Chokepoint Chaos Risks Oil Above 2008 Peak

Brent crude futures rose nearly 5% to the mid-$98-a-barrel range after tanker attacks near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait threatened another critical maritime chokepoint as the Strait of Hormuz remained partially disrupted. Tankers are again turning away from the southern Red Sea, reversing a recovery in traffic following the 2023 disruptions.

On Wednesday night, we reported that Houthi militants targeted two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea, escalating the Gulf area conflict and threatening deeper energy supply disruptions - which spiked Brent above $95 in post-settlement trading.

Iran's key proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, pose a direct threat to regional energy flows, while Saudi Arabia signaled it will respond forcefully to any attacks on its tankers or land-based energy assets. By early Thursday, the added war risk premium sent Brent crude to $98.70.

Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, warned clients earlier today that "war enters a dangerous phase with the Red Sea and critical infrastructure at risk."

Croft continued:

While Brent prices have risen over 30% since July 1, we still see them as a lagging indicator of the extreme pressure building in the region. Given the dangerous escalation currently unfolding, we remain of the view that oil prices could potentially take out the Russia/Ukraine oil price highs of $128/bbl in 2022 or even the 2008 peak of $146/bbl, especially in the worst-case scenario of a full regional war.

The Houthi entry into the conflict has the potential to expand the war's supply losses by reducing the effectiveness of the East-West pipeline offset route. With the Houthis indicating that they targeted two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, we think a sustained deployment of force would cause a material reduction in total Red Sea oil flows. It could also shift the sentiment of "the market always finds a workaround" camp.

On Monday, Goldman commodities expert Daan Struyven warned that Brent crude futures could surge above $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if disruptions in the Hormuz maritime chokepoint persist. He noted, however, that such an outcome is not his base case.

The big risk now is that the Hormuz disruption is unfolding after global oil buffers have already been depleted, with Cushing inventories reportedly near "tank bottoms." This leaves the market with limited spare capacity to absorb a prolonged supply shock and will likely increase pressure on the Trump administration to revive diplomacy once the US military has sufficiently degraded Tehran's missile and drone capabilities used to threaten commercial shipping through the strait.

The US national average for regular gasoline breached $4 a gallon on Monday, intensifying pressure on the Trump administration to pursue Gulf diplomacy.

Gas prices may go higher...

Saudi Arabia has offset some disruption from the Strait of Hormuz closure by rerouting crude through its 7 million-barrel-a-day East-West pipeline. However, if Bab el-Mandeb becomes impassable, Asia-bound tankers would be forced around the Cape of Good Hope, raising freight costs, delaying deliveries by weeks, and further tightening the physical market.

Simultaneous disruption would therefore put roughly one-fifth of global oil supply directly at risk through Hormuz, while disrupting or delaying as much as another 8 million to 9 million barrels a day that normally transits the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint.

Next Read: "Goldman Warns Brent Could Top $120 If Gulf Chokepoint Crisis Deepens."

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 07:20

To The Woke Woodshed: Burnham Is Funding UK Populism By Liquidating The Progressive Project

To The Woke Woodshed: Burnham Is Funding UK Populism By Liquidating The Progressive Project

Andy Burnham has been UK Prime Minister for three days, and he has already settled into a routine: announce something cheap for households in the morning, pay for it by killing a progressive unicorn. 

The tally so far:

Monday, within hours of kissing rings at the Palace, Burnham signaled he would fast-track oil and gas development in the North Sea - which is just words for now, but 'un-Labour' enough that Donald Trump welcomed it in the same post that dismissed Britain as a "Poverty Stricken Disaster." 

Tuesday: VAT stripped from domestic electricity bills from October 1, funded by cancelling Starmer's £1.8 billion Digital ID programme outright. BritCard - the surveillance flagship that survived a near-three-million-signature petition and a year of civil-liberties fury - died in the end as a budget line, sold for parts to buy down winter energy bills.

And Wednesday: a £2 nationwide cap on single bus fares from January 1, 2027, running through that year, announced by a Prime Minister insisting cheaper transport was always possible: "I've done it before and I will do it again." The funding? A £454 million package drawn entirely from a "reprioritisation" of the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero's budget - the bulk of it from converting investment money earmarked for international climate finance into repayable loans. The climate budget pays the bus fare.

Whose Money Is It Anyway

The government's line, delivered by Chancellor John Healey, is that all of this is funded from savings rather than borrowing, with no burden on taxpayers. Except - on the Digital ID swap, the OBR has pointed out that the £1.8 billion BritCard budget was never actually funded in the first place - meaning its cancellation conjures savings from a line item that existed mostly on paper. On the bus cap, the £454 million covers a scheme whose total cost is expected to top £500 million, with the gap filled by Department for Transport money "already allocated to buses."

The climate-finance maneuver is the cleverest of the three, and the department has an answer ready. Converting grants to loans, DESNZ argues, frees the capital for bus fares while still allowing Britain to invest in international climate projects such as the Tropical Forests Forever Facility - the money goes out either way, it just comes back now. Which is true, if it comes back. A grant that becomes a loan books a saving today against a repayment that lands in somebody else's parliament.

Critics are abuzz in response. Shadow Transport Secretary Richard Holden's complaint begins with the observation that the Conservatives "introduced the £2 bus fare cap, expanded it, and pledged to keep it" - which is to say, the Tories' first objection to Britain's new left-wing government is that it is stealing their policies. He then asks how Labour intends to pay for any of it, and predicts borrowing or taxes will have to rise. On that second point he is asking the same question the arithmetic asks. A 20% business-rates cut for hospitality is reportedly next in the queue. There will presumably be something progressive left to defund by then.

The Mayor's Playbook

Burnham, it appears, is basically going to run Britain the way he ran Greater Manchester for nine years; bills, bus fares, and no patience for Whitehall's pet schemes. The £2 cap is literally his Manchester policy gone national - he kept it there out of his own budget when Starmer and Rachel Reeves raised the national cap to £3 in 2024 - and the loser, three days running, has been his own party's managerial wing: the ID cards, the climate money, the net zero department's budget. Ed Miliband, the climate agenda's standard-bearer, can do the math from his new office - packed off to the Foreign Office on Monday evening - roughly 36 hours before his old department's budget was raided to subsidize bus tickets.

The gilt market is letting all this slide for one simple reason: he is raiding, not borrowing. The 10-year yield jumped 8 basis points to 5.04% on Burnham's first-day rhetoric, then retreated in relief once Healey - a defense hawk, not a spender - got the Treasury. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 06:55

Trump Suggests He May Restart Bombing Yemen

Trump Suggests He May Restart Bombing Yemen

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

President Trump on Tuesday suggested he could restart a bombing campaign in Yemen in response to the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, enforcing a blockade on the Red Sea.

Trump's comments came after Ansar Allah announced a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, which came a week after the Saudis bombed Yemen’s Sanaa airport to prevent the landing of a plane carrying a Yemeni delegation from Iran to enforce its long-standing blockade on the country that was eased under a 2022 ceasefire deal but never fully lifted.

Getty Images

Ansar Allah has already warned shipping companies against using Saudi ports, and Reuters reported that two oil tankers loaded with Saudi crude bound for China and India made U-turns in the Red Sea, heading for the Suez Canal instead of attempting to cross the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Yemeni media reported that a total of six ships turned around following the warning.

For his part, Trump downplayed the blockade, claiming it hasn’t started yet. "So far, it hasn’t happened, might happen, but we take care of things," Trump told reporters while meeting with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in the Oval Office.

"If something like that happens, we take care of it. You know, we’ve done that with the Houthis before, and we haven't heard from them in a while since we did what we did originally," he added.

Trump launched a bombing campaign in Yemen on March 15, 2025, a few days after Ansar Allah announced it was renewing its blockade of Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea in response to Israel violating the January 2025 Gaza ceasefire deal by imposing a full blockade on the Palestinian territory.

The US bombing campaign lasted about a month and a half and involved major civilian casualties, including the bombing of the Ras Issa Fuel Port in Hodeidah, which killed 84 people, all civilians, according to the monitoring group Airwars. A few days after the strike, the US bombed a migrant detention facility in Saada, killing 68 African migrants.

Airwars recorded more than 250 civilian deaths in Yemen as a result of the bombing campaign, which ended on May 6 with a ceasefire between the US and Ansar Allah as the US failed to end the blockade on Israeli-linked shipping and the Yemeni missile and drone attacks on Israel that began after Israel restarted its full-scale bombing campaign in Gaza.

President Biden also conducted a bombing campaign against Ansar Allah that failed to stop the blockade on Israeli shipping that lasted from January 2024 to January 2025, until the Gaza ceasefire deal halted the Yemeni attacks.

The US also backed a brutal Saudi/UAE war against Ansar Allah from 2015 until the ceasefire in 2022, which killed hundreds of thousands of Yemenis, including many children who starved to death under a blockade, but failed at reinstalling the government of former Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi, who died in Riyadh earlier this year.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 06:30

Wildberries - Russia's Amazon - Has Seen Four Major Hubs Attacked In Quick Succession

Wildberries - Russia's Amazon - Has Seen Four Major Hubs Attacked In Quick Succession

Wildberries, which is widely referenced as 'Russia's Amazon', has seen four of its top ten distribution hubs attacked by Ukrainian long-range drones in only a matter of days, potentially putting their business operations in doubt.

Stunning footage is widely circulating Wednesday of some of the latest attacks, which came overnight. A large fire broke out in the outskirts of Krasnodar in southern Russia at a sprawling Wildberries warehouse. 

Image via Exilenova+

Regional media has cited several separate fires in the area, before which witnesses reported hearing some 20 to 30 explosions across the city and its outskirts.

Another key logistics hub for Wildberries, which is far and away the country's biggest online retailer, was also hit in the Stavropol region overnight, resulting in the urgent evacuation of employees.

Four days prior, the company's warehouses in central Russia were struck, which killed eight people. In the face of the Krelmin calling the attacks acts of terrorism and war crimes, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed that the hubs were "involved in providing the Russian army with drone components, navigation equipment and other gear."

Massive fire rages in Krasnodar, Russia overnight:

The regional anti-Kremlin publication Meduza has tallied the size of the huge hubs hit and damaged in the following:

The Ukrainian military’s strike hit two Wildberries warehouses: one in Elektrostal, outside Moscow — a 250,000-square-meter (2.7-million-square-foot) facility and one of the company’s largest logistics centers — and another in Kotovsk, in the Tambov region, a 108,000-square-meter (1.2-million-square-foot) warehouse that opened only last year.

Experts estimate the Elektrostal and Kotovsk warehouses accounted for 6.5% to 9% of Wildberries’ total warehouse space. Losing them won’t paralyze the marketplace’s operations, though it could strain its logistics network. Customers are unlikely to see significantly longer delivery times, since Wildberries operates numerous sorting centers that let it reroute shipments quickly.

And additionally of note:

Wildberries isn’t formally required to compensate sellers for the damage. On July 7 — 11 days before the attack — the company changed its contract terms with sellers, exempting itself from liability for “force majeure circumstances,” a category that now includes drone attacks.

The Kremlin will no doubt take the ongoing threat and targeting of Wildberries' hubs very seriously. Reuters has reviewed that "Together with smaller rivals, Wildberries and Ozon sell goods and services worth the equivalent of 8.5% of Russia's gross domestic product. They provide jobs for 4 million people, or more than 5% of the country's workforce."

"The firms are central to the Kremlin's plans to reinvigorate growth in ​a stagnating, war-focused economy," Reuters continues. "President Vladimir Putin's top man on the economy, Maxim Oreshkin, has been personally tasked with overseeing the sector."

Russia has in turn also been striking some major manufacturing centers inside Ukraine, claiming that these sites are have dual civilian-military purposes, such as for drone or aircraft component production.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 05:45

What Is The UK Government So Afraid Of?

What Is The UK Government So Afraid Of?

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

The British government is in court to stop the public seeing the full picture of migrant crime rates.

After the Information Commissioner ordered the Ministry of Justice to release nationality-linked conviction data from 2018 to 2024, officials have launched an appeal, claiming it risks identifying offenders and costs too much.

Campaigners say the real fear is what the numbers will show about open-border policies that have left British streets, transport and communities less safe.

The Centre for Migration Control submitted the Freedom of Information request that triggered the ruling. The MoJ rejected both the identification and cost arguments.

Director of Research Robert Bates called the legal fight "astonishing" and said it raises serious questions about what the government is hiding.

Reform UK's Robert Jenrick put it bluntly: "The cover-up continues. Successive Tory and Labour justice secretaries have refused to publish this basic information. A Reform government led by Nigel Farage would immediately blow the lid on what's really happening and begin deporting these dangerous criminals."

A Ministry of Justice spokesman insisted there is no cover-up but declined further comment while proceedings continue.

Partial data already released shows foreign nationals accounted for 14.1 per cent of sex offence convictions in 2025. That figure excludes naturalised British citizens and lacks breakdowns for rape, grooming or child sexual abuse.

Earlier analysis comparing prison rolls to census figures found foreigners overall 27 per cent more likely to be imprisoned than British citizens.

Albanians recorded an imprisonment rate of 232.33 per 10,000 people against 14 for British citizens. Kosovars, Vietnamese, Algerians, Jamaicans, Eritreans, Iraqis and Somalis all sat well above the British baseline. Some groups, including Germans, Italians and Indians, sat below it.

Those patterns match the detailed pictures already forced into the open through earlier FOI work.

Foreign nationals made up 79 per cent of theft arrests on British trains in 2025, 40 per cent of drug offence arrests, 37 per cent of sexual offence arrests and 36 per cent of violent crime arrests.

They accounted for nearly 3,700 of the 9,771 total arrests recorded by British Transport Police that year.

Across England and Wales, foreign nationals were arrested 172,889 times in the year ending March 2025 - one every 183 seconds - including 51,212 for violence and 11,264 for sexual offences.

Separate figures showed foreign nationals 3.5 times more likely to be arrested for sex crimes than British citizens, with an arrest rate of nearly 165 per 100,000 against 48 per 100,000 for Britons.

They formed 26.1 per cent of sexual offence arrests despite comprising around 9 per cent of the population.

In the City of London the foreign share of sex crime arrests reached 66.9 per cent; in Derbyshire it hit 44.8 per cent. Nationalities with the highest rates included Afghans, Iraqis, Algerians and Somalis.

The two-tier reality of enforcement has also become impossible to ignore. An Ethiopian small-boat arrival housed in an Epping asylum hotel sexually assaulted a 14-year-old girl and a woman who tried to help him.

He received a 12-month sentence. Local residents who protested the hotel and the offender later received longer jail terms.

One father of two was given two years and nine months for violent disorder after adopting what a judge called a "fighting or boxing stance."

Police Scotland has gone further, refusing FOI requests for aggregated data on call-outs, crimes and arrests at five asylum hotels.

Officers cited fears that releasing the figures would heighten community tensions and put people at risk of physical harm. The force acknowledged the hotels house asylum seekers and refugees yet argued that numbers could change over time and that incidents might be linked to protests rather than residents.

Scottish Conservative shadow justice secretary Liam Kerr called the refusal another example of public bodies following an SNP culture of secrecy.

The same pattern repeats across Europe. In Spain a CEU-CEFAS study found foreigners commit five times more rapes and four times more murders per capita than Spanish citizens.

They make up 31 per cent of the prison population. In Catalonia 91 per cent of convicted rapists are migrants, who form only 17 per cent of the population.

Penetrative rape cases rose 143 per cent between 2019 and 2024. Attempted murders nearly doubled over a similar period. Illegal property occupations saw foreigners accounting for 51.8 per cent of arrests.

Official Spanish figures show rape crimes tripled from 1,878 cases in 2019 to 5,206 in 2024 - an average of 14 rapes per day. Catalonia, Madrid and Andalusia led the surge. Sixty-four per cent of sexual assault and rape inmates are foreign nationals.

Eurostat data confirmed the continental scale: rape reports in Spain surged 322 per cent over the last decade, against an EU average rise of 150 per cent.

EU-wide sexual violence cases exceeded 250,000 in 2024, with nearly 100,000 rapes. Foreigners in Spain remain over-represented in serious crime even as the native population ages.

In France left-wing MPs, including Greens, tabled an amendment demanding public media reduce coverage of crime stories. They cited the murders of 13-year-old Lola and of Thomas in Crépol as examples of "political exploitation" by the right.

Marine Le Pen called the move a hallmark of totalitarian ideology that threatens the public's right to know. French statistics already show foreigners responsible for 69 per cent of violence and sexual crimes on public transport, half of all crimes in Paris and 55 per cent in Marseille.

Germany's 2025 police crime statistics show foreigners, 15 per cent of the population, responsible for 41 per cent of violent crimes and 38 per cent of murders.

They account for 39.1 per cent of serious sexual offences. Rape has risen 72 per cent since 2018. Afghans are 14 times more likely than Germans to commit sexual offences; Syrians are 11 times more likely to commit violence.

Knife crime runs at 29,000 incidents a year. In North Rhine-Westphalia foreigners commit 48 per cent of robberies.

Reported rapes in Germany reached nearly 14,000 in 2025, a 9 per cent rise on the previous year and a 72 per cent jump since 2018. Non-German nationals formed around 41 per cent of suspects for crimes against sexual self-determination.

In some states the over-representation reaches three to four times their population share. Hesse's Interior Minister Roman Poseck noted that perpetrators with a migration background are overrepresented and that some arrive with "a completely wrong understanding of roles" regarding women's rights.

Sweden Democrats MEP Charlie Weimers forced the European Parliament to confront the pattern after a Swedish police officer was beaten to death at a Copenhagen fan zone and a Gambian migrant in Milan stabbed a man 20 times "for fun."

Weimers described the attacks as part of a broader wave undermining ordinary Europeans' safety. Swedish Social Democrats voted against even holding the debate.

The refusal to publish the data sits against a starker warning delivered inside the same parliament.

At a conference titled "Civil War: Europe at Risk?", Professor David Betz of King's College London told MEPs that "Europe is on track for civil war."

Marion Maréchal warned that cultural homogeneity - the main basis of trust between citizens - is eroding, producing societies of violence and mistrust.

A report mapped up to a thousand no-go zones across the continent. Betz described the trajectory as Balkanisation that could extinguish coherent national identities and lead to large-scale conflict resembling the Troubles or the Years of Lead, only on a continental scale.

British officials still claim the full nationality breakdown is too expensive or too risky to release. The Information Commissioner already rejected those arguments.

Campaigners note that partial data and FOI-driven releases have already painted a consistent picture: certain nationalities drive disproportionate shares of theft, violence and sexual crime, while native protesters face longer sentences than the offenders who provoked them.

Across Spain, France and Germany the same disparities appear, often followed by official efforts to limit public discussion rather than confront the numbers.

The legal battle is therefore not about administrative cost. It is about whether British voters are allowed to see the consequences of the migration policies successive governments have pursued.

Reform UK has pledged to publish the data and begin deportations. Until then, the Ministry of Justice will keep fighting in the courts to keep the full ledger closed.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 05:00

Gay Cruise Debacle Proves Liberals Are Deluded About Alliance With Muslims

Gay Cruise Debacle Proves Liberals Are Deluded About Alliance With Muslims

In a world where "Queers for Palestine" is a real thing and a Muslim communist with an LGBT cabinet is the mayor of the largest city in the US, the far-left vision of total intersectional multiculturalism seems to be in reach.  The only people not welcome in this new world order would be straight, white Christian conservatives and anyone else who disagrees with wokeness.

The problem is, intersectionality requires total submission to the idea that all behaviors are permissible and morality is relative.  Progressives and Muslims might agree on the idea of mass immigration and the deconstruction of the west, but they don't really agree on anything else. 

The political left has run into this embarrassing quandary on a number of occasions with hilarious results.  For example, third world migrants courted the empathy of liberal voters in Hamtramck, Michigan, but when the Muslims took over the local government, the first thing they did was ban the display of LGBT symbols and pride flags on city owned property.   Leftists were stunned by the decision.    

By extension, Muslims have learned to feign support for progressive ideology to gain entry into the west, but in Islamic countries, lefties are not welcome.

In recent news, a "gay cruise" carrying over 2000 limp-wrist passengers set sail for Turkey, only to be denied entry at the port town of Kuşadasi.  Virgin Voyages’ Scarlet Lady set sail from Athens, Greece, on the 5th of July for what was billed as “an epic all-gay voyage” over 10 days.  The cruise is run by Atlantis, a US company that puts on events and vacations for LGBT people

The Turkish government cited "moral values" as the reason for the rejection.  The cruise then diverted to Egypt where it was once again denied at the port of Alexandria.  

Passengers and entertainers on the cruise say they are shocked by the refusals, indicating a level of delusion that is impressive, even in our modern era.  Patti LuPone, a 77-year-old Broadway singer performing on the ship, took to Instagram to share her dismay regarding the news. 

“The Atlantis cruise I am performing on next week has been banned from entering Turkey,” she wrote. “A ship – a magnificent ship – full of gay men. And me. Denied entry to Turkey simply because of who is on board....I am furious, but I am sailing, as the ship will make other ports of call. I am ready to perform for all the wonderful men on this Atlantis cruise, who deserve so much better than this.”

Turkey banned Pride marches back in 2015. Egypt has been prosecuting people under morality laws for over a decade.  It is not uncommon for gay people to be executed in Islamic countries, by government authorities or angry mobs in the streets in "honor killings".  While Turkey has not banned homosexuality, it is greatly frowned upon in the national culture. 

Public displays of affection by gays can and do lead to violence in Turkey and Egypt.  

The assumption among western progressives is that all minority groups fall under their umbrella. 

They think because they advocate for the open immigration of third worlders this means that third worlders will advocate for leftist ideals. 

This is simply not so, and an orgy ship loaded with dudes in pink speedos just found out that a big chunk of the world does not see things the way they do.  

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 04:15

The Digital Euro's New Chapter

The Digital Euro's New Chapter

Authored by Cláudia Ascensão Nunes via the Foundation for Economic Education (FEE),

For years, the digital euro was presented by the European Central Bank (ECB) merely as a modern and practical alternative to banknotes and coins. It has now been openly acknowledged that the project is intended to respond to the dominance of American payment companies. Visa and Mastercard process 61 percent of card payments in the euro area, according to the ECB’s own data, and it is this dependence that Brussels intends to break.

On June 23, the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) approved its negotiating position on the digital euro legislative package by 43 votes to 14. Although this approval does not constitute the final law, a final agreement with the Council is expected by the end of 2026, with implementation projected to begin only from 2029 onward.

The project, which has historically been justified by the ECB as merely a matter of convenience compared with cash, was this time presented in a European Parliament statement as a genuinely European payment option, in an attempt to counter the dominance of major American payment companies, in what could represent yet another escalation of tensions in transatlantic relations. Visa and Mastercard’s dominance of cross-border transactions in Europe generates billions of euros in fees; a significant reduction in that dominance would weaken the dollar, represent an economic loss for these American companies, and threaten one of Washington’s soft-power tools. Whatever the outcome of this dispute between blocs, it is the European citizen who first bears the cost of the response chosen by Brussels.

This development reflects the increasingly protectionist approach that the European Union has adopted in the technological sphere, as seen with the Digital Markets Act and the recent Tech Sovereignty Package, making open competition and private innovation more difficult. Under the pretext of defending European sovereignty, Brussels has chosen to create centralized public infrastructures. But money is not infrastructure. It is the instrument through which the state and the citizen negotiate, every day, the boundaries of individual freedom. That is why, since the beginning of discussions on the digital euro, a particularly dangerous direction of travel has been emerging.

According to the negotiating position that has now been approved, it will not be citizens, but rather the European Commission, acting on a recommendation from the ECB, that will determine the maximum amount of digital euros each person may hold, likely around €3,000 (just under $3,500) with periodic reviews.

In addition, companies will not be allowed to maintain digital euro balances for more than 24 hours, except for accumulating received payments, which must be automatically transferred after that period.

This prevents businesses from using the digital euro as a treasury management tool, a liquidity reserve, or for routine payments such as suppliers and payroll.

Through this rule, Brussels strengthens centralized state control and significantly reduces the usefulness of the digital euro for the business sector. Companies lose freedom and options.

Holding limits and restrictions imposed on businesses, while shocking to advocates of freedom, are not new. These ideas have been embedded in the digital euro project since its initial stages. In the legislative proposal presented by the European Commission in 2023, the ECB and Brussels explicitly acknowledged that limits would be imposed on the amount of digital euros each citizen could hold, under the familiar justification of “protection,” in this case, protecting financial stability and preventing deposit flight from commercial banks. The novelty, therefore, does not lie in the principle but in its implementation. What was in 2023 an open possibility has now become a concrete decision, clearly made without regard for the wishes of citizens themselves.

These conditions follow the same logic of centralized control found in China’s digital currency, the digital yuan (e-CNY). In the Chinese system, there is also the possibility of obtaining higher limits in exchange for surrendering more personal data and accepting less privacy, a model of “tiered privacy” in which freedom is always sacrificed and only the degree of submission to the state remains open to choice. Thus, in order to reduce dependence on American payment companies in the name of “European sovereignty,” instead of strengthening private competition and liberalizing the market, Europe is importing the model of state control that China has refined.

Although the ECB publicly denies that the digital euro will be a programmable currency, these kinds of technological and centralized solutions always leave open the possibility that conditional functionalities may be built upon their architecture. Money can be made to expire, be conditioned, or be tracked, transforming it into a public-policy instrument far more powerful than cash has ever been. To combat an alleged external dependence on North America, Europe is creating an even more dangerous internal dependence, one in which money ceases to be an instrument of individual freedom and open markets, and instead becomes a tool of control and geopolitical rivalry.

In the end, the digital euro does not liberate Europe, modernize it, or make payments more convenient. It merely changes who holds control, shifting it from American private companies to European public authorities, and strengthens that control in the process.

At its core, this project reveals a profound civilizational choice: money ceases to belong primarily to individuals, as the state assumes the power to define the limits of financial freedom.

Brussels not only threatens the freedom of its citizens, but also risks escalating transatlantic tensions. A direct challenge to the dominance of U.S. payment giants and the dollar’s global infrastructure is unlikely to be ignored passively in Washington.

The more money is transformed into an instrument of public policy and geopolitical rivalry, the smaller the space becomes for individual freedom and open markets.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 03:30

Bulgaria Draws Iranian Warning Over Hosting US Military Tanker Aircraft

Bulgaria Draws Iranian Warning Over Hosting US Military Tanker Aircraft

Bulgaria has for many years during the so-called Global War on Terror been a major Eastern European hub for US and Western weapons shipments as well as military aircraft transfers related to the Middle West. 

But now Iran is paying close attention, putting the Bulgarian government on notice over a planned temporary deployment of up to eight American refueling aircraft.

USAF file image

The large military planes are set to be housed at Bezmer Air Base in the NATO country's southeast. It is one of the few joint bases at which US forces have a lot of freedom of operation.

The request from Washington is being framed as a way to relieve pressure on Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv, where dozens of parked refueling tankers have disrupted normal commercial flight operations.

Additionally, it comes after a number of EU allies, especially Italy and Spain, have blocked US Air Force planes that are engaged in any way in Operation Epic Fury.

On Wednesday, the Bulgarian parliament voted to allow the US refueling planes to be based in the country:

Bulgaria’s parliament votes to allow the United States to base refueling planes in the country, as Donald Trump threatens to further escalate military attacks on Iran.

Washington made the request Friday, and parliament approved it with 136 votes in favor, 13 against and two abstentions.

Bulgaria will authorize the deployment of up to eight KC-135 tanker aircraft and up to 250 military personnel, tasked with supporting operations in the Middle East. They will be stationed at Bezmer Air Base in the southeast, from July 24 to October 1, 2026.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry has warned against Bulgaria becoming complicit in the US war. Tehran described that Bulgaria too will now be a participant in "aggression and war crimes." Also this via Tasnim--

Iran Deputy FM Gharibabadi says "European governments need to be aware that providing bases and territory to the aggressor will put them among the aggressors."

Back in April, when there were signs of moving American planes onto Bulgarian soil, Tehran sent Sofia a diplomatic note and protest cautioning against allowing this.

US European Command has meanwhile warned it is ready to respond if Iran threatens any kind of aggression or retaliation on Bulgaria.

Wiki Commons

"The United States maintains regional defensive capabilities across NATO's eastern flank, including in Bulgaria, and works closely with the Bulgarian government and our allies and partners throughout the broader region," the US command said. "We remain vigilant and prepared to counter any potential threats."

Bulgaria itself has downplayed that these US planes will have a direct role in aggression against Iran, but it's hard to see what say the Bulgarian government would have in how the US Air Force uses its planes.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 02:45

Swedish Police Veteran Warns Islamization Is Replacing Gang Violence As Country's Defining Threat

Swedish Police Veteran Warns Islamization Is Replacing Gang Violence As Country's Defining Threat

Via Remix News,

A veteran Swedish police officer says tougher criminal laws have sharply improved security in Uppsala, but warns that Islamization and parallel social structures now pose a deeper long-term threat.

Maria Rosander, a police officer of 17 years and Sweden Democrat group leader in Uppsala, told Samnytt that conditions for officers had changed dramatically since shootings and explosions reached crisis levels.

“From a police point of view, it’s like night and day,” she said.

Rosander credited tougher sentences, expanded surveillance, better cooperation between police regions, and greater use of covert measures. Suspected young gang recruits can now be intercepted before carrying out attacks, she said.

The improvement showed that political decisions could reverse criminal decline, but it still has a long way to go. “We have come to the conclusion that it is not profitable to be a criminal,” Rosander said.

However, the police chief suggested that while legislation to tackle gang violence was starting to produce the desired effect, religious segregation and increased Islamization across Swedish society remain a huge problem.

“Islamization is a contributing factor to what we have seen in society. I am absolutely convinced of that,” she said.

Rosander described the mosque in Uppsala as a symbol of segregation, honor-based oppression and unequal treatment of men and women. She said female officers were often ignored in favor of male colleagues and claimed girls in heavily segregated areas were kept away from public life.

“We are letting Islamization creep in to the point where we will not be able to say no,” she said. “Society is being eaten from within.”

Rosander called for a halt to new mosque construction, restrictions on the niqab and burqa in public, and a ban on children wearing Islamic veils.

She also rejected the language of integration. “I think we should talk about assimilation,” she said.

Swedish society, Rosander argued, should not continually adapt to newcomers who maintain separate cultural and social systems. She criticized multilingual municipal information, saying it removed incentives to learn Swedish.

Rosander further claimed that parallel structures were facilitating welfare abuse, false address registration, and informal financial transfers through religious networks.

She described couples registering at separate addresses while remaining married under Islamic law, allowing them to claim additional housing and benefits.

“The woman receives housing allowance, extra allowance and an apartment for her children,” she said. “The man also receives an apartment that he rents out illegally.”

Rosander also warned that foreign criminal gang networks were deeply established in Uppsala’s vulnerable districts. “We absolutely have gang structures in our society,” she said.

She said extended families repeatedly appeared in criminal investigations and described reports of business owners being forced to pay protection money.

“It’s classic mafia,” she said. “I see clan and mafia as basically the same thing.”

“It’s not the Swedes. These are foreign groups that have connections to organized crime and networks,” Rosander added.

“It is not Swedish youth who commit these crimes.”

Rosander called for stricter background checks for sensitive public-sector positions, arguing that clan loyalty could override loyalty to Swedish institutions.

She also criticized Uppsala Municipality for allegedly failing to scrutinize the foreign funding of Muslim associations and mosque projects.

“If you can’t account for 100 percent where the money comes from, it should never be opened,” she said.

Rosander supports an active remigration policy and wants Uppsala to establish a municipal unit focused on illegal residence, improper settlement, and misuse of public housing.

“For me, remigration is necessary,” she said.

She said Sweden’s success in reducing crime proved that its cultural decline could be reversed, but only if politicians were willing to confront uncomfortable realities.

“As a Swede, I should not have to change my life and start deviating from things that we in Sweden have always done just to suit someone else,” she said.

Read the full interview here.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 02:00

Washington Can't Afford To Let The US Lose The Open-Source AI War

Washington Can't Afford To Let The US Lose The Open-Source AI War

Authored by Julio Rivera via American Greatness,

President Trump was right about China.

Long before it became conventional wisdom in Washington, he recognized that America wasn't simply competing with another trading partner. China was executing a long-term strategy to dominate the industries that would define the 21st century. From manufacturing and telecommunications to semiconductors and artificial intelligence, Beijing understood that technological leadership translates directly into economic and geopolitical power.

Artificial intelligence is the next front in that competition, and the United States cannot afford to get it wrong. The greatest danger isn't that China builds a better AI model. It's that China builds the AI platform the rest of the world decides to use. Those are two very different contests.

Recent research suggests Beijing has chosen a strategy designed for long-term dominance rather than short-term profits. A June 2026 analysis by FourthWeb concluded that "Chinese open source AI models have quietly surpassed their American competitors" on several important benchmarks while "U.S. companies like Anthropic and OpenAI have gone increasingly proprietary." Another report, China's Open Source Strategy and Its Global Implications, found that Chinese firms, including Alibaba and DeepSeek, are making "a huge bet on open source," releasing state-of-the-art AI models for anyone to use, improve, and build upon.

That isn't generosity. It's geopolitical strategy. When Alibaba released its Qwen models, developers didn't simply download them. They began creating new products, businesses, and applications on top of them. Today there are more than 180,000 derivative versions in 119 languages. Every one of those projects pulls more developers, companies, and institutions into China's technological ecosystem.

Technology works a lot like language. The language everyone learns eventually becomes the language everyone speaks. The operating system everyone builds on becomes the operating system that dominates the market. The AI platform developers choose today will influence which country sets the standards tomorrow.

China understands that better than many people on Capitol Hill and in Silicon Valley. Some of America's leading AI companies have taken the opposite approach. Rather than encouraging widespread adoption, they are moving toward increasingly closed systems that maximize subscription revenue and centralized control. That may be good for quarterly earnings, but it limits how quickly American technology spreads throughout the global economy.

FourthWeb captured the contrast in one sentence: "Chinese open models winning on capability, U.S. closed models winning on revenue."

Lawmakers need to understand that Silicon Valley revenue matters, but winning matters more. History shows that the cheapest and easiest technology often becomes the global standard. Businesses rarely choose the most expensive option simply because it's American. They choose the platform that is flexible, affordable, and easy to integrate into existing operations.

Open-source AI gives startups, manufacturers, hospitals, and even allied governments the ability to deploy powerful models on their own infrastructure while keeping sensitive information in-house. They aren't forced to send proprietary data through someone else's servers or commit to increasingly expensive licensing agreements.

Some organizations have reportedly reduced AI deployment costs by as much as two-thirds by using open models such as Alibaba's Qwen. That's the kind of economic advantage businesses notice.

If the most affordable, adaptable AI platform in the world is Chinese, companies around the globe will build on Chinese technology. Once that happens, China gains something far more valuable than another software customer. It gains influence over the next generation of digital infrastructure.

America shouldn't hand Beijing that opportunity.

Closed AI models create another strategic problem. They concentrate technological power inside a small number of corporations. If America's AI future depends on two or three dominant companies, innovation inevitably narrows. Smaller firms struggle to compete. Universities face higher barriers to experimentation. Manufacturers become customers instead of innovators. Entrepreneurs spend more time paying licensing fees than building new products.

That isn't how America became the world's technology leader. Our greatest strength has always been broad participation. We led the personal computer revolution because thousands of companies competed. We led the internet revolution because innovators could build without asking permission. America has always won by expanding opportunity, not restricting it.

Artificial intelligence should be no different.

Anthropic has made no secret of its preference for closed AI models. The company argues that limiting access reduces the risks of misuse, cybercrime, and disinformation. Those concerns deserve serious consideration. Advanced AI carries real risks, and policymakers should not dismiss them.

But those safety concerns also align with a business model built around proprietary technology, recurring subscriptions, and centralized control.

Policymakers should recognize that what serves a company's commercial interests does not always serve America's strategic interests. A closed ecosystem may maximize revenue for a handful of firms, but it also limits the number of developers, startups, manufacturers, and researchers who can build on American technology. At a time when China is encouraging global adoption of its open-source models, that tradeoff deserves far more attention than it has received.

There is also a practical consideration. Anthropic's Claude models have become increasingly expensive to deploy at scale. Large corporations may be able to absorb those costs, but many startups, universities, and midsize businesses cannot. High prices inevitably slow adoption, and adoption is what ultimately determines which technological ecosystem becomes the global standard.

The country whose AI is used by the greatest number of builders - not simply the one with the most valuable AI company - will enjoy the greatest long-term strategic advantage.

President Trump correctly challenged the assumption that America could outsource strategic industries without consequences. Artificial intelligence deserves the same level of urgency.

Capitol Hill shouldn't measure success by the market capitalization of a handful of AI companies. It should measure success by how many American businesses build on American technology, how many universities teach it, how many entrepreneurs launch companies with it, and how many allies choose American AI over Chinese alternatives.

The AI race won't be won by whichever company reports the strongest quarterly earnings. It will be won by whichever country creates the largest community of innovators. China has already made its choice. America should make its own before the rest of the world makes it for us.

Julio Rivera is a business and political strategist, cybersecurity researcher, founder of ItFunk.org and ReactionaryTimes.com, and a political commentator and columnist. His writing, focused on cybersecurity and politics, has appeared in major publications around the world.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 23:25

Lavrov To Challenge Germany's Bid For French Nuclear Shield In Rubio Talks

Lavrov To Challenge Germany's Bid For French Nuclear Shield In Rubio Talks

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio are expected to hold an important, rare meeting on Thursday to address shaky bilateral relations in the context of the Ukraine war, as well as recent nuclear rhetoric out of European NATO countries.

The Kremlin is especially alarmed at the German government's intent to gain access to nuclear weapons, based on new defense agreements with France and its 'nuclear umbrella'. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz unveiled late last week: "Alongside this work on a shared doctrine, German conventional forces will this year take part in a nuclear exercise of the French military."

The Russian FM has newly responded just the day prior to the Rubio meeting: "And this is truly alarming, considering that, for example, the US nuclear program was largely created by people who fled Germany and were taken there. That memory does not fade."

via Associated Press

Lavrov in the remarks to the press previewing the top level dialogue warned that ongoing US aggression in places like Iran and the Middle East could push an array of non-nuclear sakes to quickly seek atomic weapons, on fears of attack from Washington or its allies.

The meeting with Rubio will be "useful in any case" Lavrov stated, underscoring that Moscow has many open, pressing questions for the Trump administration concerning its current policies. "It's better to ask questions directly and receive answers," Lavrov noted.

Lavrov seized on some of President Trump's recent comments on forging peace in Ukraine, at a moment the air war has clearly been ramping up, especially given that Ukrainian drone strikes have increasingly penetrated into the Moscow region. "Regarding Trump's prediction of an imminent settlement, I will ask Marco Rubio tomorrow," Lavrov said according to TASS.

He also said that Russia continues to adhere to principles put forward at the Putin-Trump Alaska summit in Anchorage, in August 2025. "We assume that, at least for now, our American colleagues have not revoked their own proposals, which were voiced in Anchorage and which are now well known to everyone," Lavrov stated.

But he also previewed that he'll raise the issue of deepening US involvement with Ukrainian intelligence and the military, per TASS:

The US is not simply assisting, but directly participating in, the targeting of Ukrainian weapons at facilities in Russia, including civilian ones:

"But of all people, the Americans, through arms supplies funded by the European Union and through the provision of intelligence - the Starlink system and much more - are not simply assisting, but directly participating in the targeting of Ukrainian weapons at facilities, including civilian ones, on Russian territory."

Concerning the ongoing tit-for-tat attacks on Black Sea shipping, as well as the question of a safe energy corridor, the top Russian diplomat said, "When asked about the Black Sea Initiative, the answer is short: there were no proposals."

Lavrov also said to reporters that recent claims out of Eastern European and Baltic leaders that Russia is preparing some kind of attack or sabotage inside the EU is a fabrication and born out of sensationalism and propaganda. 

"Vladimir Putin was asked about the EU's preparations for war, and he very clearly answered that we have no intention of attacking anyone, but if they, having once again gathered all of Europe under certain banners, try to attack us, it will no longer be a conventional war. It will be a different kind of war," Lavrov warned

Lavrov also highlighted the persisting Iran conflict in the pre-Rubio meeting remarks, saying it's hard to speculate, but "I have the feeling that continuing hostilities is not in the interests of either the United States or Iran."

Russia wants the Hormuz crisis to quickly end, Lavrov said. He also batted down allegations that Russia is weaponizing the Iranian side and helping fuel the war, saying this is "embarrassing to hear" and that ultimately "We want this to stop. It affects the global economy, and Russia is part of the global economy."

Currently, the Russian military seems bent on 'punishing' Ukraine for its long-range strikes deep inside Russian territory, which has hit oil depots and key energy sites in particular. This has included huge ballistic missile strikes on the Ukrainian capital. These salvos have been getting bigger and bigger of late.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 23:00

Pages