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GameStop CEO's CNBC Interview Raises More Questions Than Answers On eBay Bid

GameStop CEO's CNBC Interview Raises More Questions Than Answers On eBay Bid

Summary:

  • GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen Can't Explain Basic Deal Math To CNBC Host 

  • eBay Confirms Receipt of Unsolicited Proposal from GameStop

  • GameStop CEO Tells CNBC: We Haven't Heard Anything Yet From eBay

  • Wall Street analysts "skeptical" about the GameStop Takeover of eBay

  • GameStop CEO Reveals Unsolicited Offer to Buy eBay

GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen Joins CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin For Interview

CNBC's Andrew Sorkin interviewed GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen earlier this morning about GameStop's bid for eBay.

Sorkin asked Cohen about "how does the math work for you? Given the price tag $56 billion, given the market cap of GameStop which is a fraction of that. I know you have this $20 billion dollar financing letter from TD but sort of walk us through how you could get to that price and how it would work."

Sorkin responded to Cohen's answer with disbelief, noting that he had not provided the basic math for how the deal would work. Cohen pointed to a press release that stated the deal is "half cash, half stock."

Sorkin pressed Cohen on the basic math, yet Cohen still couldn't provide a straight answer.

Sorkin emphasized, "I hear you. You understand that. And just trying to understand where the rest of the money would come from."

Cohen responded by repeating what he had said before: "Half cash, half stock."

Sorkin: "I'm just saying that math doesn't get to the price of your offering. So that is a pretty straightforward question. I don't get it. Where is the rest of the money coming from?"

Cohen: "Andrew, I laid it out clearly. I don't understand your question. We're offering half cash, half stock and we have the ability to issue stock in order to get the deal done. But the full details... that's on our website."

Why Cohen couldn't explain the basic math to CNBC viewers is a major red flag.

X users pointed out that GameStop's new 13D shows derivatives, or option calls, represent 99.89% (22,176,000 shares) of its $EBAY position.

Actual common stock owned by GameStop is about 25,000 shares, or .11% of the total position.

"If the deal falls through, hopefully they just sell their calls for a 50% return," one X user said, which appears to be read.

Polymarket odds of "Will GameStop acquire eBay" stand at 27%.

//--> //--> //--> Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Yes 29% · No 71%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Cohen is best known as the co-founder of Chewy and as an activist investor in GameStop.

Meanwhile .... "Big Short" investor Michael Burry: 

And GameStop's 'momo' traders are getting hammered by late morning, down about 7%. 

eBay Confirms Receipt of Unsolicited Proposal from GameStop

eBay confirmed that it received an unsolicited, non-binding acquisition proposal from GameStop.

eBay's Board of Directors will review the proposal to determine whether it is in eBay's and shareholders' best interests.

Wall Street Analysts Respond

eBay shares jumped as much as 13% in New York premarket trading after GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen told The Wall Street Journal that he had submitted a $56 billion takeover bid for the online marketplace.

Cohen's deal appears to be part of his strategy to transform eBay into a direct competitor to Amazon, leveraging GameStop's retail footprint and logistics infrastructure to create a larger e-commerce platform.

Wall Street analysts were broadly "skeptical" of Cohen's ability to finance the deal because eBay's market capitalization is nearly four times that of GameStop's, and Truist estimates that GameStop would need nearly $20 billion in debt financing.

Here's the latest comments from analysts, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Morgan Stanley (overweight)

  • Analyst Nathan Feather notes the key question in any hypothetical acquisition scenario would be financing, as eBay's market cap is roughly four times larger than Gamestop

  • "We are also initially skeptical on potential synergies. Regardless of outcome, confirmation of an offer would demonstrate eBay's increased potential strategic value"

  • Notes that regardless of whether Gamestop's bid is successful, an offer would demonstrate how eBay "has been able to increase its strategic value as it has focused on its key strengths (focus categories, C2C, and recommerce) which could also be of interest to other potential acquirers"

Truist (hold)

  • Analyst Youssef Squali is "skeptical of the ultimate success of this pursuit" at first glance; calls the bid "stunning"

  • "GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen, who has accumulated a ~5% stake in the marketplace (through stock and options), indicated he is prepared to initiate a proxy fight to take the offer directly to shareholders if eBay's board remains unreceptive"

  • Notes that Gamestop ended 2025 with a "significantly bolstered balance sheet," but deal would still require nearly $20 billion of debt financing to bridge valuation gap.

Trigon Brokerage (no rating)

  • Analyst Dominik Niszcz says deal valuation is seen to be "justified by potential synergies, including significant cost savings, the combination of asset-light eBay (a weakness versus Amazon) with GameStop's physical stores and logistics, as well as a revenue 'flywheel' in collectibles and gaming products."

Meanwhile, GME shares fell 6% in premarket trading as retail traders received a real-time lesson in merger arbitrage, with the momentum stock running into a brick wall of a proposed $56 billion eBay takeover. 

GameStop CEO Reveals Unsolicited Offer to Buy eBay

Update: GameStop - the meme stonk that also happens to sell video games, is making an unsolicited offer to buy Ebay for around $56 billion, and already has a commitment letter from TD Bank to provide $20 billion in debt financing to help make it happen, the Wall Street Journal reports. 

Late last month, eBay reported strong first-quarter results. Anna Webber/Getty Images for Teen Vogue

According to Cohen, GameStop has built up a 5% stake in Ebay and is offering $125/share in cash and stock - which makes for a roughly 20% premium to Friday's closing price.

"EBay should be worth—and will be worth—a lot more money," said Cohen in an interview. "I'm thinking about turning eBay into something worth hundreds of billions of dollars."

Ryan Cohen in Miami in 2022. Anastasia Samoylova for WSJ

If eBay resists Cohen's advances, he's ready to run a proxy fight and take it directly to shareholders. 

"There is nobody who is more qualified, based on my experience, to run the eBay business," Cohen said - noting his time at GameStop, and previously Chewy - the online pet-products marketplace he co-founded. 

* * *

Three months ago, billionaire Ryan Cohen, the CEO of GameStop, told The Wall Street Journal he was eyeing a major acquisition. Fast forward to late last week, and in what appears to be an intentional leak to the same outlet, Cohen's next move may now be coming into focus: preparing an offer to buy eBay.

The WSJ cites sources who say that Cohen's GameStop has built a $12 billion position in eBay ahead of a potential offer. Notably, eBay has a market capitalization 3.8 times larger than that of the video game retailer.

Sources said Cohen could announce the offer as early as this month, and if eBay rejects it, he may take the bid directly to shareholders.

In late January, Cohen told WSJ that he was eyeing a major transaction and searching for deals in the consumer and retail space, as part of a plan to expand the business far beyond video games and collectibles. 

WSJ's Lauren Thomas noted, "GameStop had around $9 billion in cash on hand at the end of March, up from $4.8 billion a year earlier. Cohen would likely enlist his legions of online followers to rally behind a deal, too."

The report comes as GameStop shares are up about 32% this year on hopes for dealmaking, while eBay shares are up nearly 20% this year.

However, one week ago, we penned a note covering AI startup Anthropic, which quietly released a report titled "Project Deal" suggesting the company may be preparing to take on eBay.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 11:09

"This Is Unacceptable": Duffy Sounds Off After United Jet Clips Light Pole, Truck In New Jersey

"This Is Unacceptable": Duffy Sounds Off After United Jet Clips Light Pole, Truck In New Jersey

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy joined Fox Business on Monday morning, where he described Sunday's midair incident, in which a commercial jumbo jet's landing gear clipped a light pole and truck on a New Jersey highway, as "unacceptable," despite the aircraft being flown by "really well-trained pilots."

"So I don't want to get ahead of the investigation. Again, it seems pretty clear a light pole at least was hit. Was the truck hit? That will be ascertained as the NTSB arrives today. The FAA is going to arrive today. They're in contact with United," Duffy said.

Local news outlet Fox Baltimore confirmed that a delivery truck owned and operated by the Baltimore-based Schmidt Bakery was struck by the United Airlines jet.

Chuck Paterakis of H&S Family of Bakeries said the driver had departed from the Baltimore metro area and was headed to a company depot in New Jersey when the incident happened near Newark Liberty International Airport. He said the driver suffered minor injuries from broken glass.

Duffy continued, "This is unacceptable. We have really well-trained pilots. This should never happen in America."

He added, "The big and small incidents we study, we look at and we learn from and we take action on, and that's why America is the safest place to fly. We have the safest guys, the busiest guys, bar none, and we're the best because we look at every incident and learn from it."

Why the United Airlines flight had a low angle of attack during final approach will be determined and released in a future FAA report on the incident.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 11:00

CLARITY Act Stablecoin Yield Rules Finalized: 'Go Time' For Crypto Bill

CLARITY Act Stablecoin Yield Rules Finalized: 'Go Time' For Crypto Bill

Authored by Ciaran Lyons via CoinTelegraph.com,

The US CLARITY Act, which aims to provide the US crypto industry with more regulatory clarity, could now move closer to becoming law after new stablecoin yield provisions were published, according to Coinbase chief legal officer Faryar Shirzad.

“It’s time to get CLARITY done,” Shirzad said in an X post on Friday, after US Senator Thom Tillis and US Senator Angela Alsobrooks published the final text aimed at settling the stablecoin yield dispute between the banking and crypto industries, which has centered on whether such yields would harm the banking system’s competitiveness.

“In the end, the banks were able to get more restrictions on rewards, but we protected what matters – the ability for Americans to earn rewards, based on real usage of crypto platforms and networks,” Shirzad said.

Extract of the “SEC 404. Prohibiting interest and yield on payment stablecoins” document. Source: Alex Thorn

The text titled “SEC 404. Prohibiting interest and yield on payment stablecoins” states that no crypto firm may pay “any form of interest or yield” to customers solely for holding stablecoins, akin to a bank deposit or any similar interest-bearing product. 

Source: Patrick Witt

However, it allows firms to offer rewards tied to “bona fide activities.” Some industry executives voiced frustration with the ruling. Helius Labs CEO Mert Mumtaz said, "The clarity of not getting risk-free yield on your dollars without using a bank."

Polymarket traders anticipate 55% odds of CLARITY passing in 2026

It marks a significant step forward for both the legislation and the broader crypto industry, as the stablecoin yield debate had been one of the main roadblocks delaying its passage, despite expectations earlier this year that it would move through Congress.

Source: Toly Yakovenko

“Now that this issue is behind us, it’s time to focus on the broader bill,” Shirzad said.

Traders on the Polymarket crypto prediction market now see a 55% chance of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026, up 9% over the past 24 hours.

Many in the industry are now calling for the bill to be marked up. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said shortly after the announcement, “Mark it up.”

Senate Banking Committee could schedule markup “imminently”

Galaxy Digital head of firmwide research Alex Thorn said the “release of text suggests that Senate Banking will schedule markup imminently, as soon as the week of May 11.”

However, Thorn warned that he expects “the banks to increase their opposition efforts.”

US Senator Bernie Moreno recently said that he anticipates the CLARITY Act to “get done” by the end of May. On April 11, US Senator Cynthia Lummis said, “It’s now or never.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 10:40

Key Events This Week: Payrolls, Quarterly Refunding, Confidence, And More Earnings

Key Events This Week: Payrolls, Quarterly Refunding, Confidence, And More Earnings

Key data releases this week will be the US April jobs report and the University of Michigan’s consumer survey. Other economic events feature the US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement and rate decisions in Australia, Norway and Sweden. Corporate earnings include AMD, Palantir and Rheinmetall.

The focus this week will be on the US April jobs report due Friday. Economists see payrolls up +65k in April, down from +178k in March, with a
slightly faster earnings growth rate (+0.3% vs +0.2% in March) and a stable unemployment rate (4.3%). Other labor market indicators due will include the JOLTS report on Tuesday and the ADP report on Wednesday.

Elsewhere, US indicators will include the University of Michigan’s consumer survey for May on Friday (our US economists forecast some rebound in sentiment from 47.6 in April to 52.2), the ISM services index on Tuesday and Q1 non-farm productivity data on Thursday. Rounding out US events, there will also be the quarterly US Treasury refunding announcement on Wednesday.

From central banks, policy rate decisions will be due from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday (expect a hike) and Sweden’s Riksbank and
Norway’s Norges on Thursday. There will also be plenty of speakers from the Fed and the ECB.

European indicators next week will include the April CPI reports in Switzerland (Tuesday) and Sweden (Wednesday), as well as March industrial production, factory orders and trade in Germany. In politics, the focus will be on the local elections in the UK on Thursday.

Elsewhere, there will be an OPEC+ meeting this Sunday. Finally, the busy corporate earnings schedule continues with highlights including tech names Palantir, AMD and CoreWeave and big consumer stocks Walt Disney and McDonald’s, amongst others. Defence firms Rheinmetall and Leonardo will also be in focus. Other notable European firms releasing results feature Shell, Ferrari and AB InBev. In Japan, the list includes Toyota, Sony and Nintendo.

Source

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday May 4

  • Data: US March factory orders, Italy April manufacturing PMI, budget balance, new car registrations
  • Central banks: Fed's Williams speaks, ECB's Simkus, Dolenc, Villeroy, Kocher, Guindos and Nagel speak
  • Earnings: Palantir, ON Semiconductor, Paramount Skydance, Pinterest, Norwegian Cruise Line

Tuesday May 5

  • Data: US April ISM services, March JOLTS report, trade balance, new home sales, UK April new car registrations, France March budget balance, Canada April services PMI, March international merchandise trade, New Zealand Q1 labor force survey, Switzerland April CPI
  • Central banks: RBA decision, Fed's Barr and Bowman speak, ECB's Panetta and Lane speak
  • Earnings: AMD, HSBC, Arista Networks, Eaton, Shopify, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Pfizer, UniCredit, KKR, TransDigm, Ferrari, Occidental Petroleum, Electronic Arts, PayPal, Coupang, Live Nation Entertainment, Leonardo, Prudential Financial, GLOBALFOUNDRIES, Fiserv, Astera Labs, Devon Energy, IQVIA, Super Micro Computer

Wednesday May 6

  • Data: US April ADP report, UK April official reserves changes, China RatingDog April PMIs, France March industrial production, Italy April services PMI, March retail sales, Eurozone March PPI, Sweden April CPI
  • Central banks: Fed's Musalem and Goolsbee speak, ECB's Lane and Cipollone speak
  • Earnings: ARM Holdings, Novo Nordisk, Walt Disney, AppLovin, Uber, CVS Health, Equinor, Marriott, Johnson Controls International, Infineon, DoorDash, Apollo, Warner Bros Discovery, Medline, BMW, Coherent, Orsted, NRG Energy, Axon Enterprise, Veolia Environnement, Vestas, Fresenius, Kraft Heinz, Albemarle, Flutter Entertainment, Verisure, Deutsche Lufthansa, Blue Owl Auctions: US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement

Thursday May 7

  • Data: US Q1 nonfarm productivity, unit labor costs, March construction spending, consumer credit, April NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, initial jobless claims, China April foreign reserves, UK April construction PMI, Japan April monetary base, Germany April construction PMI, March factory orders, France March trade balance, current account balance, Q1 wages, Eurozone March retail sales
  • Central banks: Riksbank decision, Norges Bank decision, BoJ minutes of the March meeting, Fed's Hammack and Williams speak, ECB's Kocher, Villeroy, Guindos, Lane and Schnabel speak
  • Earnings: Shell, McDonald's, Gilead, Enel, McKesson, Howmet Aerospace, Engie, Airbnb, Cloudflare, Rheinmetall, CoreWeave, Cheniere Energy, Vistra, Coinbase Global, Rocket Lab, Datadog, Siemens Healthineers, Legrand, Rocket Cos, Block, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Expedia, Vonovia, Affirm, DraftKings, Unity Software
  • Other: UK local elections

Friday May 8

  • Data: US April jobs report, May University of Michigan survey, March wholesale trade sales, Japan March labor cash earnings, Germany March trade balance, industrial production, Canada April labour force survey
  • Central banks: Fed’s Cook speaks, ECB's Guindos speaks 
  • Earnings: Toyota, Sony, Intesa Sanpaolo, Nintendo, Commerzbank, Amadeus IT

* * * 

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data release this week is the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking  engagements by Fed officials this week, including events with Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman and Governor Barr on Tuesday and Governor Cook on Friday. 

Monday, May 4 

  • 10:00 AM Factory orders, March (GS +2.3%, consensus -0.1%, last flat)
  • 12:50 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will deliver keynote remarks during the Cynosure Group Spring Symposium at the Yale Club. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On April 16, Williams said, “The current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to balance the risks to our maximum employment and price stability goals." He also said, "Lately, the labor market has been displaying conflicting signs. In recent months, much of the hard data point to a stabilization in the balance between supply and demand, while some of the soft data suggest a labor market that continues to gradually soften."

Tuesday, May 5 

  • 08:30 AM Trade balance, March (GS -$61.2bn, consensus -$59.7bn, last -$57.3bn) 
  • 09:45 AM [note deletion of manufacturing] S&P Global US services PMI, April final (last 51.3)
  • 10:00 AM ISM services index, April (GS 54.0, consensus 53.7, last 54.0): We estimate that the ISM services index was unchanged at 54.0 in April. Our non-manufacturing survey tracker increased slightly in April but remained below the latest ISM services reading (+0.8pt to 52.4).
  • 10:00 AM New home sales, March (GS 680k, consensus 668k, last 587k [January]): Census will jointly release new home sales data for the months of February and March. We forecast that new home sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 680k in March after falling sharply in January, potentially reflecting the impact of poor weather in late January.
  • 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, March (GS 6,750k, consensus 6,850k, last 6,882k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings edged down to 6.75mn in March based on the signal from online measures of job postings from Indeed and LinkUp.
  • 10:00 AM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at the 2026 Women in Housing and Finance Symposium. Q&A is expected. 
  • 12:30 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will participate in a moderated conversation about his career path and international financial regulation. On March 26, Barr said, "Given the considerable uncertainty about the potential effects of developments in the Middle East on our economy, as well as the other factors I mentioned, it makes sense to take some time to assess conditions. Our current policy stance puts us in a good place to hold steady while we evaluate incoming data, the evolving forecast, and the balance of risks."

Wednesday, May 6 

  • 08:15 AM ADP employment change, April (GS +170k, consensus +120k, last +62k)
  • 09:30 AM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will participate in a moderated discussion at the Mississippi Bankers Association 2026 Annual Convention. On April 1, Musalem said, "I believe the current policy rate… will likely remain appropriate for some time," but "I could support additional easing if a greater risk of a weakening labor market becomes apparent, … [or] to prevent the real rate from rising if actual or expected inflation falls," or "I could support raising the policy rate to avoid an inadvertent real easing that would result from holding the policy rate constant if core inflation or medium- to long-term inflation expectations moved persistently higher and away from 2%."
  • 01:00 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a panel on the financial mechanics and real-economy implications of the AI investment surge at the 2026 Milken Institute Global Conference. On April 14, Goolsbee said, "The longer this inflation disruption goes, the more likely it is that rate cuts would be put off." He added, "I have some concern about piling the energy shock on inflation before the tariff shock went away. That’s a dangerous spot to be in."

Thursday, May 7 

  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q1 preliminary (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.2%, last +1.8%); Unit labor costs, Q1 preliminary (GS +2.8%, consensus +2.5%, last +4.4%)
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 2 (GS 190k, consensus 205k, last 189k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 25 (consensus 1,791k, last 1,785k)
  • 10:00 AM Construction spending, March (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.3% [January]): Construction spending, February (GS +0.4%); Census will jointly release construction spending data for the months of February and March. We forecast that construction spending increased by 0.4% in February and 0.5% in March after falling 0.3% in January, potentially reflecting the impact of poor weather.
  • 01:00 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a fireside chat at Northern Michigan University. In his essay explaining his dissent at the April FOMC meeting, Kashkari said, "I supported the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision to hold the federal funds rate at this week’s meeting, but I dissented against the FOMC’s action because I did not think it was appropriate to continue to include the following phrase in the policy statement: ‘In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate.’” He added, "Given recent economic and geopolitical developments and the high level of uncertainty about the outlook, I do not believe [an easing bias in the statement] is appropriate at this time. Instead, the FOMC should offer a policy outlook that signals that the next rate change could be either a cut or a hike, depending on how the economy evolves."
  • 02:05 PM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will participate in a fireside chat at the 2026 Ohio CEO Summit. In her essay explaining her dissent at the April FOMC meeting, Hammack said "I dissented from the post-meeting statement because I did not believe it was appropriate to include an easing bias around the future path for monetary policy... I see this clear easing bias as no longer appropriate given the outlook." 
  • 03:30 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will participate in a moderated discussion on the regional economy at the Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress event. 

Friday, May 8 

  • 05:45 AM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will speak on tokenization and the financial system at a Central Bank of West African States conference. Speech text is expected. 
  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, April (GS +75k, consensus +62k, last +178k); Private payroll employment, April (GS +80k, consensus +75k, last +186k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Unemployment rate, April (GS 4.3%, consensus 4.3%, last 4.3%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 75k in April. On the positive side, the big data indicators of job growth we track were solid and higher frequency measures of layoffs remained low. On the negative side, we expect a 5k decline in government payrolls—reflecting a 10k decline in federal government payrolls that is partly offset by a 5k increase in state and local government payrolls. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.3% in April. That said, the bar for rounding down to 4.2% is not high from an unrounded 4.26% in March. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month in April, reflecting neutral calendar effects.
  • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, May preliminary (GS 50.0, consensus 49.4, last 49.8); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, May preliminary (GS 3.5%, last 3.5%)
  • 07:30 PM Fed Governors Waller and Bowman, San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter), and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC voter) speak: Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak on a panel at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference 2026.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 10:30

Anthropic Enters $1.5 Billion Joint Venture That Includes Goldman, Blackstone

Anthropic Enters $1.5 Billion Joint Venture That Includes Goldman, Blackstone

AI startup Anthropic on Monday announced the creation of a joint venture which includes Goldman Sachs, Blackstone and several other Wall Street firms, with the goal of selling artificial-intelligence tools to companies, the Wall Street Journal reports. 

The new venture will act as a consulting arm for Anthropic, and will educate businesses - including companies in the private-equity firms' portfolios, how to integrate AI across their operations. 

The deal is being anchored by Blackstone and Hellman & Friedman - each of which are expected to invest roughly $300 million, while Goldman is putting in around $150 million. General Atlantic, Leonard Green, Apollo Global Management, GIC, and Sequoia Capital are also investing in the deal, which is expected to reach $1.5 billion all told, according to the report.

On Friday, Bloomberg separately reported that Anthropic is entertaining offers at a $900 billion valuation from investors.

Anthropic had previously resisted several inbound proposals from investors for a new round at a valuation of $800 billion or more, Bloomberg News has reported.

The new discussions, which have not been reported, coincide with a push by Anthropic to ramp up fundraising amid the breakout success of its AI software. Anthropic, which Bloomberg has reported is considering an initial public offering as soon as October, has been on the hunt for more infrastructure to meet growing demand for its products. -Bloomberg

Meanwhile, rival OpenAI has also been in talks to form a joint venture with PE firms to encourage the adoption of its own AI tools, as both companies turn their attention to industry adoption by companies seeking to improve efficiency and cut costs. Anthropic is already seen as the enterprise king, as OpenAI scrambles to catch up. 

Anthropic is looking at a public listing as soon as this year, as revenues have skyrocketed in recent months due to the success of its Claude Code coding tool, which should strike fear into the heart of budding software engineers taking on loads of student loan debt. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 10:15

Core US Factory Orders Surged In March To Best YoY Growth Since Nov 2022

Core US Factory Orders Surged In March To Best YoY Growth Since Nov 2022

Headline Factory Orders rose 1.5% MoM in March (dramatically better than the 0.6% MoM expected) - the best since November. February's data was also revised higher. However, overall, orders were only up 2.1% YoY - the lowest since JUly 2025

Source: Bloomberg

Core Factory Orders surge 1.6% MoM (also better than the 1.3% MoM expected) and up for the 5th straight month. That dragged the YoY growth in core orders up 4.09% YoY - the best since Nov 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

Given the surge in ISM Manufacturing's New Orders sub-component...

Source: Bloomberg

...there is a notable divergence between the 'soft' survey data and the 'hard' data.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 10:05

FedEx, UPS Slide After Amazon Opens Freight Network To All Businesses

FedEx, UPS Slide After Amazon Opens Freight Network To All Businesses

Shares of transportation and logistics giants FedEx and UPS dropped in premarket trading after Amazon debuted Amazon Supply Chain Services, opening its freight network to sellers far beyond the Amazon marketplace.

Amazon said ASCS is a move to "open its freight, distribution, fulfillment, and parcel shipping capabilities to businesses of all types and sizes." It gives companies outside the Amazon marketplace access to a global delivery network with two- to five-day delivery and 24/7 service.

"With this launch, Amazon is expanding its third-party logistics capacity to support businesses in industries such as healthcare, automotive, manufacturing, and retail," Amazon noted.

Amazon said the move mirrors its AWS playbook: build infrastructure for its own operations, prove it internally, then sell it externally.

This story may sound familiar. Amazon built another major offering—cloud infrastructure—for the same reason: to run its own business better. And then Amazon started selling it. That's how Amazon Web Services (AWS) was born, and it's transformed how the world builds and runs software. Now, Amazon is ready to do that for the supply chain. -AMZN

Following the ASCS news, FedEx and UPS dropped in premarket trading, both down around 4%.

"Amazon is bringing the infrastructure, intelligence, and scale of its supply chain services—proven over decades—to businesses everywhere, much like Amazon Web Services did for cloud computing," said Peter Larsen, vice president of ASCS. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 09:50

Market Correction Risk: Why Summer 2026 Looks Risky

Market Correction Risk: Why Summer 2026 Looks Risky

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high last week. The median stock in the index is sitting 13% below its 52-week peak. That divergence is not a footnote or a curiosity. It’s the loudest warning the market has flashed since the dot-com era, and it’s arriving at the worst possible moment on the calendar. Market correction risk is climbing, and this summer it’s stacked on top of three other forces that almost never converge at the same time.

After three decades of watching market cycles play out, I’ve learned that the dangerous moments are those in which everything looks fine on the surface and rotten underneath. That’s exactly where we are right now. The market correction risk we’re staring at into the summer isn’t driven by a single bearish data point. It’s driven by four of them showing up together, and ignoring any of them would be a costly mistake.

The Breadth Divergence Is As Bad As It Gets

The narrowness of the current rally is not opinion. It is arithmetic.

The S&P 500 has rallied roughly 14% off its late-March washout to a new high near 7,125. Look under the hood, and you find a market hollowed out. The equal-weight S&P 500 has declined about 1% over the same period. The Magnificent Seven is up roughly 10%. The semiconductor index is up 30%. Everything else is sitting on the curb.

That kind of dispersion has only happened a handful of times since 1980. Goldman Sachs’ equity strategy team flagged it directly in a note this week, warning that this level of breadth has historically preceded larger-than-average drawdowns over the following six to twelve months. They’re not the only ones flagging it. Hedge fund net tilt to momentum is sitting near a multi-year high, and gross leverage remains at the upper end of the five-year range. When everyone is positioned the same way and the leadership is two names deep, the unwind is never gentle.

While breadth is the headline. The supporting cast of technical signals is just as ugly.

The 14-day relative strength index on the S&P 500 has spent most of the past three weeks above 70, the threshold that has historically marked overbought conditions. We’ve seen a textbook negative divergence: price made a new high last week while RSI made a lower high. That same pattern showed up at the January 2018 top, the February 2020 top, and the late 2021 peak. None of those were resolved kindly.

The advance-decline line for the broader NYSE has rolled over even as the index pushes higher. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving average has dropped to roughly 56%, while the index itself is printing new highs. We saw a similar decline in breadth as the market was advancing, just before the “Liberation Day” selloff in 2025.

The Volatility Index is sitting in the mid-teens, which sounds reassuring until you remember that the VIX was at 12 in January 2020 and 15 the week before the bottom dropped out. Low realized volatility breeds complacency, complacency breeds leverage, and leverage breeds unwinds. We have all three. None of these signals, individually, predicts market correction risk with precision. Together, they identify a market that has used up its margin of safety.

As we have noted before:

“Markets do not crash from euphoric tops. They crash from complacent ones, and right now we have a complacent market with collapsing breadth, deteriorating technicals, and the worst seasonal window of the year staring it in the face.“

Summer Seasonality Is Real, And This Year Is Worse

The “sell in May and go away” cliche gets dismissed every spring by someone who hasn’t bothered to look at the data. The data is unambiguous.

Going back to 1950, the May-through-October window has produced an average S&P 500 return of roughly 1.7%, while the November-through-April window has produced an average return of over 7%. The summer months, specifically June through September, account for the bulk of that weakness, and the historical pattern in years where the market entered May at or near all-time highs is materially worse than the long-run average.

Mathematical statistics support this: $10,000 invested in the market from November to April vastly outperformed the same amount invested from May through October. Interestingly, the max drawdowns are significantly larger during the “Sell In May” periods. Previous major market declines occurred in October 1929, 1987, and 2008.

However, not every summer works out poorly. Historically, there are many periods where “Sell In May” did not work and markets rose. 2020 and 2021 were examples of periods when massive Federal Reserve interventions pushed prices higher in April and the subsequent summer months. However, in April 2022, the decline in prices was sharp as the Fed began an aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes the previous month.

I want to be clear about something. Seasonality alone is not a reason to sell. It’s a backdrop, not a trigger. But when you stack a weak seasonal window on top of collapsing breadth and stretched positioning, you’ve removed the natural support that usually shows up to absorb selling. Buyers thin out in the summer. Volume dries up. Volatility spikes on increasingly small catalysts. That’s the setup we’re walking straight into.

Midterm Election Years Are The Most Volatile Of The Cycle

Here’s a fact that almost no one talks about until it’s too late. Midterm election years are, on average, the worst of the four-year presidential cycle for equity returns and the most volatile by a wide margin. From May through October, the S&P 500 historically delivers its weakest returns of the four-year cycle, with deeper average drawdowns and more frequent corrections than non-election years.

Going back to 1962, the average maximum intra-year drawdown in a midterm election year has been around 17%, materially worse than the roughly 13% average for non-midterm years. The summer and fall of midterm years are particularly rough. The S&P 500 has averaged a peak-to-trough decline of nearly 19% between April and October of midterm election years. Then, almost without exception, the market bottomed in late October and rallied hard into year-end and through the following twelve months.

The pattern is not a coincidence. Policy uncertainty rises into November. Corporate guidance turns conservative, and fiscal posturing in Washington dominates the headlines. Capital markets dislike uncertainty, and there’s no time on the four-year calendar with more of it than the summer leading into midterms. We are now six months from the November vote, and the polling, the policy backdrop, and the geopolitical overhang make this midterm cycle more contentious than most. The historical record is clear: market correction risk runs hottest during this specific window of the four-year cycle.

Iran, Oil, And The Inflation Pipeline

The market has been remarkably good at compartmentalizing the conflict in the Persian Gulf. That works until it doesn’t.

Brent crude is sitting above $109 a barrel, roughlyl 40% above its level on the eve of the conflict. WTI has tracked closely behind and currently sits at ~$102 a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz remains a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil flows. Any escalation that genuinely threatens that transit lane is a step-function risk for energy prices. As discussed in “Hormuz,“ so far the market has been able to stave off the impacts of higher oil prices. However, there is a clock on that capability. The longer oil prices remain elevated, the greater the risk becomes for the market.

“The duration of the conflict, specifically when the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal shipping traffic, is the single most important variable for every downstream economic and market forecast. Here is how we frame the three scenarios:” – Bull Bear Report

The reason the math gets worse with time is that energy is the cleanest pass-through to inflation. Every $10 sustained increase in oil adds roughly 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points to headline CPI within three months. A similar amount flows into core inflation a quarter later as transportation costs feed through to goods. The Fed has been holding the line on rate cuts for exactly this reason. If the Iran situation worsens, oil pushes through $130 or $140. At that point, the case for any easing this year evaporates entirely, and the case for an actual rate hike re-enters the conversation.

That is not a market that has been priced in. Equity multiples right now are sustained on the assumption that disinflation continues and the Fed eases later this year. Take both of those legs out from under valuations, and the math gets ugly fast.

Managing Market Correction Risk

The honest counterargument is straightforward. AI capital expenditure is the single largest spending cycle the corporate sector has seen in a generation. The latest GDP for Q1 2026 showed that 75% of the growth came from capital expenditures which offset weakness in Personal Consumption which comprises 70% of the calculation.

Furthermore, the hyperscaler earnings continue to come in ahead of expectations, and while the breadth problem is an issue, it can be resolved as easily through a “catch-up” of laggards as a “catch-down” of leaders. That’s a real argument, and we should consider it seriously.

However, there’s a problem with that last argument. A “catch-up” requires a catalyst, and the catalysts on the table right now are not friendly to the laggards. Consumer stocks are the largest weight outside of tech, and oil at these levels is a direct tax on consumer disposable income. Industrials and materials need an improving global growth picture, and the war is doing the opposite. Financials need a steepening yield curve and falling credit spreads, and we have neither. The path to a benign rotation runs through an improvement in the macro backdrop that I do not see arriving in the next sixty days.

The narrow leadership can extend. Goldman’s own work shows the median narrow-breadth episode lasts about three months, with the late-1990s outlier stretching to over two years.

Let me be clear that I am not calling for an imminent crash. I am saying that the conditions for a sharp, violent drawdown are as fully assembled as I have seen them in a long time, and the seasonal calendar is the worst possible place to find out. As

The actionable takeaways are not exotic. They are the basics, applied with discipline.

None of these moves requires timing the top, and none of them requires a bearish call. They require recognizing that the risk-reward at this level is asymmetric in the wrong direction, and behaving accordingly.

As noted above, it is crucial to remember that markets do not crash from euphoric tops, but rather from complacent ones. Currently, that complacency in the market is becoming more obvious, given collapsing breadth, deteriorating technicals, the worst seasonal and political cycles of the year, and an active geopolitical conflict driving energy prices to multi-year highs. Every one of those forces, taken alone, is something I’d flag for clients. Together, they make market correction risk between now and the November election the highest I have seen since early 2022.

I’m not telling you to get out of the market, but I am suggesting that you take some action today to mitigate the risk of tomorrow. Rebalance your portfolio, take profits, and raise cash levels while you can, on your terms.

Let me be clear about what I’m saying and what I’m not. The risks are elevated, but elevated risks are not certainty. Markets can, and often do, exactly the opposite of what every reasonable signal suggests they should, and nothing in this analysis guarantees a correction will arrive this summer. The narrow rally could extend. Iran could de-escalate overnight. The seasonal pattern could break. However, what is dangerous is doing nothing while the risk stack looks like this one.

If the market defies the odds and grinds higher into year-end, yes, you’ll underperform for a stretch. That is a recoverable outcome. Underperformance can be made up through disciplined participation over the next 12 to 24 months. Lost capital cannot. A 30% drawdown requires a 43% rally just to break even, and the math gets uglier the deeper the hole. That is the asymmetry that should drive every decision right now. The investors who survive long market cycles are not the ones who catch every uptick. They are the ones who refuse to be wiped out when the setup turns against them.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 09:30

Tens Of Millions Of Taxpayers May Be Owed IRS Refunds From Pandemic Era: Watchdog

Tens Of Millions Of Taxpayers May Be Owed IRS Refunds From Pandemic Era: Watchdog

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The IRS’s internal watchdog has stated that tens of millions of U.S. taxpayers may be owed refunds or abatements of penalties or interest during the COVID-19 federal disaster period.

A 1040 Internal Revenue Service tax form, in this file photo. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

“The bottom line: You may be entitled to a refund or reduction of assessed penalties and interest,” the National Taxpayer Advocate (NTA) stated in a notice published on April 30 and updated on May 1. “For taxpayers dealing with financial pressures, these amounts can make a real difference. But most taxpayers must act by July 10, 2026, to request their potential refunds.”

The NTA stated that the refunds or payments had arisen from multiple court decisions, including one handed down in November 2025 that “provides for the automatic postponement of filing and payment deadlines during the period a federal disaster declaration is in effect, plus 60 days” during the COVID-19 federal disaster period, which lasted more than three years.

The declaration for COVID-19 was in effect from Jan. 20, 2020, through May 11, 2023, it noted. Another 60 days extended that period to July 10, 2023, for tax-related purposes.

“Based on the court’s reasoning ... filing and payment deadlines were postponed during that entire period, and as a result, tax returns and payments due anytime within that window were not late until after July 10, 2023,” the NTA stated. “By the court’s logic, the IRS should not have assessed penalties for late filing or payment during that 3.5-year period, nor charged interest on those amounts.”

Taxpayers may be able to receive an abatement or refund for certain amounts during that federal disaster period, the NTA stated, such as for failure to pay taxes, failure to make estimated tax payments, or penalties that were incurred for not filing timely tax returns.

Taxpayers may also be able to receive refunds on interest that started accruing earlier than it should have or that should not have accrued at all or overpayment for interest in the 2020–2023 COVID-19 disaster period, it stated.

“This issue is widespread and not limited to a small or specialized group of taxpayers,” the NTA stated. “As noted, tens of millions of taxpayers have been assessed penalties or interest for late filings or payments during these years.”

The IRS, in most cases, will not issue refunds or abatements unless a taxpayer files a claim, it warned, noting that a taxpayer likely will have to file a claim within three years of the date they filed a tax return or two years from the date when they paid their tax.

As a result, most taxpayers who are affected would need to file claims by July 10 and will have to use Form 843, titled, “Claim for Refund and Request for Abatement.” Some taxpayers may “consider filing protective claims to preserve their rights,” the watchdog stated, citing the fact that the cases are still being litigated.

The NTA, which warned that Form 843 must be completed on paper and cannot be done electronically, also suggested that taxpayers contact a tax professional to claim the refund or abatement. It further suggested that members of Congress should highlight the coming deadline and that tax professionals keep their clients informed about the rebate.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 08:05

Trump Disapproval Rate Hits Career-High - War And Rising Costs Take Toll

Trump Disapproval Rate Hits Career-High - War And Rising Costs Take Toll

Though tempered by the prospect of additional GOP gerrymandering of House districts in the wake of a pivotal Supreme Court decision, Democrats' hopes for a rout of Republicans in the approaching midterm elections are rising after a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll found that President Trump's disapproval rating is now the highest of either of his two terms in office. Trump's decision to launch a war on Iran is taking a toll -- voters are not only dismayed by his handling of Iran, but also dissatisfied with his work on the economy, which is itself being harmed by the war. 

In a survey of US adults taken in the last week of April, 62% said they disapprove of his general performance in the Oval Office.  A whopping 76% disapprove of his handling of the cost of living and 66% disapprove of what he's done with Iran. A majority of Americans surveyed expressed disapproval of his handling of every issue covered by the survey.   

via ABC News

While 85% of Republicans approve of his performance, the share who strongly approve fell to 45% -- that's down 8% since September and is a new Trump low. Perhaps more importantly, his approval among Republican-leaning independents is also at a new low of 56%. Overall, just 25% of independents approve of his performance.

Trump also scored terribly on some personal attributes. For example, 71% said the descriptors "honest and trustworthy" are not applicable to Trump, while 67% said Trump does not "carefully consider important decisions." Meanwhile, 59% said he lacks the "mental sharpness" required of his position.  

The poll provides a little insight into the upcoming midterm races. Today, Republicans have a slim, 3-seat margin of control of the House of Representatives. Asked if they would vote for a Democrat or Republican candidate if the House election were held today, 49% said they would for a Democrat, compared to 44% who would choose a Republican. At the same point in the 2022 midterms, that question yielded a 42-42 tie, with the GOP proceeding to win the House when votes were cast six months later, securing a 222 - 213 margin in seats (a 9-seat pickup for the Republicans).  As for intended turnout, 79% of registered Democrats say they are "absolutely certain" they'll vote, compared to 72% of Republicans -- a 7-point improvement on the GOP turnout expectation recorded in a February survey.  

Vance had higher approval and disapproval ratings than Rubio -- as more survey participants shrugged at the Rubio performance question

Looking at the big picture, 67% of Americans said the country is moving in the wrong direction. Here, there's a vast difference among parties: 94% of Democrats felt that way, compared to 25% of Republicans. As a general caveat, we'll note that -- since more and more Americans identify as independent -- party results are growing less meaningful. A hefty 78% of independents say the country is heading south.  

Finally, the poll had some incidental insights for those looking ahead to the 2028 presidential race. While participants weren't asked about that contest, they were asked to rate the job performance of various Trump administration officials, including two potential GOP contenders: Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. They came out with similar approval ratings -- 35% for Vance and 33% for Rubio -- but Vance had a 48% disapproval rating, compared to 40% for Rubio. The remainder of respondents had no opinion. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 07:45

Europe Will Lose Billions In Revenue If US Military Bases Shut Down

Europe Will Lose Billions In Revenue If US Military Bases Shut Down

Europe is in far greater economic trouble that most people realize.  In an April 2026 report by the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA), it was reveled that the UK's GDP per capita is lower than all 50 U.S. states, including the poorest, Mississippi. While the majority of Britons mistakenly believe the UK is as wealthy or wealthier than the US, data shows the UK's average income lags behind the lowest-performing US states, highlighting a significant economic gap.

The quiet decline of the once mighty British Empire right under the nose of the general populace is just one of many examples of Europe not understanding their own precarious economic circumstances. 

Far-left governments on the other side of the Atlantic have openly sought to sabotage conservative political movements, imposing authoritarian lawfare and mass censorship in order to prevent losing their grip on power.  The globalist leadership in these countries has designated the Trump Administration and US nationalist groups as a "bad influence" on their own citizens. 

The key conflict is about forced third world immigration and forced multiculturalism.  Leftist politicians desperately want this process to continue, but the US is enforcing a migrant reversal, which makes Europeans wonder why their governments are not doing the same?  The juxtaposition is embarrassing and makes the liberal agenda more difficult. 

Because of this snub against the multicultural project, the Trump Administration's scrutiny of European censorship, tariff's against nations that had their own tariffs on US goods and Trump's demand that NATO countries pay their fair share in defense, the elitists across the pond have turned sour on their relationship with America.

They have been noticeably interested in undermining US operations in the Gulf against Iran, denying the US access to airspace and making things unnecessarily complicated.  One can theorize the deeper motives behind this decision (the presence of 50 million Muslims in Europe, many of them migrants, might explain the apprehension to do anything that might be seen as European hostility to Iran), but it's clear that the behavior of some EU leaders has grown increasingly petty.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently sparked intense controversy by stating that the U.S. is being "humiliated" by Iran and lacks a clear strategy in the conflict, calling the situation "ill-considered".  It's difficult to understand this assertion without knowing Merz's definition of "humiliation". 

With the majority of Iran's leadership dead or incapacitated, at least half of their missile stock destroyed and Trump's reverse blockade crushing the Iranian economy within just a couple weeks ($1 US dollar is currently equal to around 1.8 million Rial), one has to wonder what success looks like to the Germans (perhaps an old-school blitzkrieg would impress them more). 

It doesn't really matter, because Merz's comments were met with a sharp response from the Trump Admin, and now it is likely that US bases in the country will soon be shut down.  Upon hearing this news, Merz suddenly changed his tune and praised the US partnership with Germany:

"The United States is and will remain Germany‘s most important partner in the North Atlantic Alliance. We share a common goal: Iran must not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons..."

That's an incredible attitude adjustment in the span of only 24 hours.  At the same time, a NATO spokesperson scrambled to rekindle diplomatic relations, claiming that European leaders were trying to understand the US decision to pull troops, as if the reasons were not blatantly clear already. 

Why is Merz abruptly shifting his rhetoric?  Probably because he just realized the benefits Germany draws from the US military bases in the region; benefits which Germany has enjoyed for decades. 

Citizens in Italy, Spain and Germany are expressing concerns that the removal of US bases will cost local and national economies dearly.  With approximately 36,400 active-duty US personnel (as of late 2025) across major sites like Ramstein Air Base and facilities in Bavaria, the US military functions as a major economic engine, especially in rural and smaller urban areas. 

Germany rakes in around $4.1 billion annually through US spending around military bases.  US operations support more than 10,000 direct German jobs (civilian employees at bases) and an estimated 70,000 indirect jobs (in construction, services, and supply chains). The US also invests billions annually in base operations, expansion, and modernization.  The removal of troops would squeeze these already struggling rural communities.   

Italy collects around $312 million every year in base generated revenues in Naples alone, and at least 5000 direct jobs are created. 

In Spain, $713 million is pumped into local economies annually through US bases, plus around 8000 jobs for Spanish military staff and civilian workers.   

U.S. defense spending directly supporting European security is substantial, with the U.S. maintaining a nearly $1 trillion global defense budget. While direct on-ground operational costs were previously estimated around $30–$36 billion annually in 2025.  This might not sound like much, but the effects are substantial in poorer rural areas.  

The economic advantages of the US presence go far beyond direct spending.  US military security allows Europe to spend minimal on defense, which means they have far more cash to spend on social welfare programs like universal healthcare.  All of these programs go away with a US exit from NATO.  

Beyond the obvious loss of defense capability that comes with a US exit from NATO, the economic factor should not be overlooked.   

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 05:45

All-Time High 55% Of Americans Say That Their Financial Situations Are Getting Worse

All-Time High 55% Of Americans Say That Their Financial Situations Are Getting Worse

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse,

Americans were not even this stressed about their financial situations during the Great Recession. As you will see below, a brand new Gallup survey has discovered that 55 percent of Americans believe that their finances are getting worse. That is higher than any reading that Gallup recorded during the recession of 2008 and 2009, and it is higher than any reading that Gallup recorded during the pandemic. But of course this shouldn’t exactly be a surprise to any of us. We have been in a historic cost of living crisis since 2020, and our standard of living has been steadily deteriorating as the purchasing power of our money has gone down.

If you are making the same amount of money as you did at the beginning of this decade, you are in far worse shape financially today.

That is just the reality of the time that we are living in.

The cost of just about everything has been going up and up and up.

As a result, people are more concerned about the economy than anything else.

According to Gallup, the percentage of Americans that believe that their finances are getting worse has been rising for five years in a row and is now at the highest level ever recorded…

Americans’ financial outlook in 2026 is also historically poor, with a record 55% now saying their financial situation is getting worse. While similar to last year’s 53%, this is up from 47% in 2024 and marks the fifth consecutive year more Americans say their finances are worsening rather than improving.

The only similar multiyear period when the larger share felt their financial situation was worsening was during the Great Recession.

At this stage, there is no denying the trend that we are witnessing.

Gallup found that Americans are particularly concerned about monthly bills, healthcare and retirement…

Majorities worry about not having enough money for retirement (62%) and being unable to cover medical costs in the event of a serious accident or illness (60%). Slightly smaller majorities (54% each) worry about their investment returns and maintaining their standard of living.

Nearly half are concerned about routine healthcare costs (48%), while 41% worry about paying their normal monthly bills and 40% about affording college. Fewer worry about housing costs (35%) or making minimum credit card payments (28%).

Living paycheck to paycheck is not fun at all.

Many of you know exactly what I am talking about.

Today, much of the country is just one major setback away from financial ruin…

According to a recent national survey, a little over $6,000 in additional debt is all it takes to push a family over the edge. Six thousand dollars. The cost of a half-decent secondhand car. A modest kitchen renovation. In the country that put a man on the moon, mapped the human genome, won two world wars, and produces more billionaires per capita than anywhere on earth, that’s the cliff edge.

The old vocabulary no longer fits. The conservative catechism of thrift, discipline, and delayed gratification has aged poorly in light of the evidence. Tariffs, as the survey notes, rippled through supply chains and left a sizeable dent in consumers’ pockets. Health care waits in the background, capable of dismantling a decade of careful saving with a single bad diagnosis. American households have always lived under financial pressure. The difference now is the direction — or rather, the directions. It is coming from everywhere at once, which is what makes it almost impossible to outrun.

The middle class is being systematically eviscerated all around us.

It is a national crisis that just keeps intensifying year after year.

As finances have gotten tighter and tighter, millions upon millions of Americans have fundamentally changed their behavior…

The response has been behavioral rather than political, which is another way of saying people have given up waiting for someone to fix it. Nights out get canceled. Rent falls behind. Medical appointments get postponed and rarely rescheduled. None of this is irrational. When survival takes priority, everything else enters a waiting room with no clear appointment time. What makes it particularly disturbing is that financial distress doesn’t stay financial. It moves through relationships and communities, rearranging what people believe is possible for themselves.

Some will call it hyperbolic to suggest the American Dream is dead. Perhaps. But a dream balanced on a six-thousand-dollar ledge, in a stiff wind, is not exactly thriving. With energy prices soaring and the probability of a recession climbing with every new data release, the wind is picking up.

What about you?

Have you found yourself changing your spending behavior in recent years in an attempt to save money?

If so, there are countless others that are in the exact same shoes.

Unfortunately, the outlook for the months ahead is not promising at all.

On Tuesday, the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States rose to the highest level that we have seen since the war with Iran began…

Gas prices climbed Tuesday to their highest level since the Iran conflict began.

The national average for a gallon of regular hit $4.18, up 15 cents from a week earlier and about $1 higher than a year ago, according to AAA.

As energy prices rise, it is going to affect the cost of everything else too.

Meanwhile, the government just continues to tax us into oblivion.

As I have detailed in other articles, each year Americans are hit with literally dozens of different taxes and fees.

When you add all of them together, some Americans end up paying more than 50 percent of their incomes in taxes and fees.

In fact, Bill Maher is claiming that he pays about 60 percent of his income in taxes and fees…

Even for liberal HBO host Bill Maher, the math behind Tax Day no longer adds up.

Maher took to his platform on “Real Time” to sound the alarm on a staggering personal tax burden that he says claims the majority of his earnings, sparking a wider debate on whether the American government is simply “incompetent and corrupt” despite a $5 trillion revenue stream.

“Last week was Tax Day… I paid to the government, if you add in state tax, local, sales, property, fees, Obamacare, probably almost 60% of what I earn. That’s a lot,” Maher said on a recent episode.

If you have to hand over more than half of what you earn to the government, you are no longer living in a capitalist system.

Some people out there don’t seem to have figured that out yet.

In this environment, you should be thankful if you still have an income coming in, because we continue to see mass layoffs all over the nation.

For example, Nike just announced yet another round of layoffs…

Nike announced a new round of layoffs Thursday affecting approximately 1,400 employees across the organization, mostly concentrated in its technology department.

In a note from COO Venkatesh Alagirisamy, the company said the layoffs were part of Nike’s broader “Win Now” turnaround strategy aiming to reshape its technology team, modernize its Air manufacturing, move some of its Converse Footwear operations and integrate its materials supply chain work into its footwear and apparel supply chain teams.

Our economy is coming apart at the seams all around us.

And now the crisis in the Middle East threatens to plunge the entire global system into an extended downturn.

We really are facing a nightmare scenario, and it won’t be too long before that is completely and utterly obvious to everyone.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 04:15

Russia's Oil Revenues Surge As The World Scrambles For Supply

Russia's Oil Revenues Surge As The World Scrambles For Supply

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via oilprice.com,

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, several major world powers introduced strict sanctions on trade with Moscow. Europe and the United States have been gradually decreasing their dependence on Russian gas and other energy products and putting pressure on other countries to do the same, to place a financial strain on Moscow, as the war with Ukraine continues. However, some countries, such as India and China, have used these sanctions as an excuse to buy discounted crude and gas from Russia, in a bid to reduce costs and boost energy security. 

Imports of Russian crude to China and India have increased significantly since 2022. In 2024, China bought a record of more than 100 million tonnes of Russian oil, which contributed nearly 20 percent of its energy imports. Meanwhile, India spent an estimated $140 billion on Russian energy imports. Over the last year, both Asian countries deepened their ties with Moscow following the imposition of high tariffs on imports by the United States. 

Although several countries have decreased their dependence on Russian energy since the invasion of Ukraine, shifting dependence to alternative energy sources, some have been forced to turn back to Russia in the wake of the “largest oil disruption in history”. Even the United States, the main advocate for the imposition of strict sanctions on Russian energy, appears to have changed its tune in recent weeks.

On 16th April, the U.S. Treasury Department extended a sanctions exemption on the sale of some Russian crude, which is expected to be in effect until May 16. This follows a previous sanctions waiver on Russia, which expired on April 11. The move by the Trump administration to ease sanctions is in response to the strain placed on the global energy market following the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran in February and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 

The move is expected to decrease the cost of oil as countries are permitted to legally purchase hundreds of millions of barrels of crude from Russia. A spokeswoman from the U.S. Treasury said: “As negotiations accelerate, Treasury wants to ensure all oil is available to those who need it.”

In recent weeks, it has remained unclear if the Strait of Hormuz will be fully opened again or whether it will remain under threat of attack. On April 10th, Iran reopened the Strait to all commercial ships before closing it once again less than 24 hours later, citing the ongoing U.S. blockade on Iranian ports as the cause.

As the trade outlook in the Middle East remains uncertain, Russian sales of crude to India are expected to remain near record highs in April and May, largely owing to the latest U.S. sanctions waiver. The finances earned from the sale of Russian oil could help Moscow fund its military spending for the war in Ukraine.

India shipped around 2.25 million bpd of Russian crude in March, marking an increase of almost 100 percent compared to February volumes. Russian crude arrivals in Indian ports were expected to reach 2.1 million bpd for the week of April 20 to 27, an increase from 1.67 million bpd the previous week.

The ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has led India and China to compete for global oil supplies, mainly from Russia, as well as Saudi Arabia. “The competition for Russian crude between India and China has been intense and will continue to be so for June-loading cargoes,” a senior analyst at Kpler, Muyu Xu, told CNBC. “The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz is prompting Asian countries to seek cheap crude that is readily available, and Russian crude falls into this category,” added Xu.

Before the War in Iran, China was importing vast quantities of Iranian crude. However, the conflict has caused major disruptions to energy trade as well as led to the destruction of energy infrastructure across the Middle East. This has led China to rely more heavily on Russia for its oil supplies.

It is not just China and India that are turning to Russian energy, as, in April, Indonesia announced plans to buy up to 150 million barrels of oil from Russia. Roughly 20 to 25 percent of Indonesia’s oil imports typically come from the Middle East and traverse the Strait of Hormuz. “Indonesia has now secured a commitment from the Russian government. We can store 150 million barrels in Indonesia to address economic volatility issues,” the Antara state news agency quoted President Prabowo Subianto’s brother Hashim as saying. 

The ongoing Middle East conflict continues to drive up energy prices due to the severe energy trade disruptions, caused largely by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This has led many governments to seek alternative energy sources to ensure their energy security for the coming months. The temporary waiver for sanctions on the import of Russian energy is expected to drive up oil and gas trade significantly in the coming months, which could result in more money being channelled into Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine – the exact thing that the United States and Europe were originally trying to avoid by introducing sanctions.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 03:30

Rudy Giuliani Hospitalized In Critical Condition

Rudy Giuliani Hospitalized In Critical Condition

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has been hospitalized and is in critical condition, according to The New York Times, citing his spokesman, Ted Goodman.

"Mayor Giuliani is a fighter who has faced every challenge in his life with unwavering strength, and he's fighting with that same level of strength as we speak," Goodman said, before asking "that you join us in prayer" for the former NYC mayor.

Goodman did not disclose what medical emergency sent Giuliani to a Florida hospital Sunday afternoon.

President Trump also released a statement on Giuliani's medical emergency, telling those on Truth Social, "Our fabulous Rudy Giuliani, a True Warrior, and the Best Mayor in the History of New York City, BY FAR, has been hospitalized, and is in critical condition."

"What a tragedy that he was treated so badly by the Radical Left Lunatics, Democrats ALL — AND HE WAS RIGHT ABOUT EVERYTHING! They cheated in the Elections, fabricated hundreds of stories, did everything possible to destroy our Nation, and now, look at Rudy. So sad!" the president said.

Giuliani is a former federal prosecutor, NYC mayor, and longtime Trump supporter.

He first rose to national prominence as U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York in the 1980s, where he prosecuted organized crime, Wall Street corruption, drug trafficking, and public corruption.

One of his most defining legal wins was helping break the power grip of NY's Mafia families through RICO prosecutions.

From the mid-1990s through 2001, Giuliani served as mayor of NYC, where his administration became known for its tough-on-crime posture. He later ran unsuccessfully for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination before re-emerging as a major political figure and Donald Trump's personal attorney, particularly during the Russia hoax investigation and the post-2020 election fight.

*This is a developing story.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/03/2026 - 19:44

Jane Street Paid Employees $9.4 Billion, Twice What It Paid Last Year, After Record 2025 Results

Jane Street Paid Employees $9.4 Billion, Twice What It Paid Last Year, After Record 2025 Results

Jane Street Group has evolved from a niche trading shop into one of Wall Street’s most profitable firms and employees are reaping the rewards. The firm paid roughly $9.4 billion in compensation last year, more than twice what it distributed a year earlier, according to Bloomberg.

On average, that translated to about $2.7 million per employee, far ahead of traditional banks like Goldman Sachs. The massive payouts followed a record year in which Jane Street generated nearly $40 billion in trading revenue, outpacing major banks and rivals in the market-making business.

Bloomberg writes that the firm started in 2000 trading American depositary receipts before expanding into ETFs and other electronically traded assets. As more markets became automated, Jane Street scaled aggressively and now handles trading across equities, bonds, ETFs, and other products.

Its financial resources have grown just as dramatically. The firm’s internal capital base has climbed to roughly $45 billion, up nearly twentyfold over the past decade, giving it significant flexibility to capitalize on market swings without relying heavily on outside funding. It has also raised additional cash through debt markets.

That war chest has allowed Jane Street to move beyond day-to-day trading. The firm has built positions in high-growth tech companies, including Anthropic, and has also backed CoreWeave while exploring deals involving Fluidstack.

Jane Street also operates differently from most major financial firms. It doesn’t have a traditional CEO hierarchy and is instead overseen by a group of partners. The firm is well known for recruiting mathematicians, engineers, and problem-solvers to sharpen its trading systems.

Despite regulatory and legal challenges — including scrutiny in India and litigation tied to the collapse of Terraform Labs — Jane Street continues to widen its lead. It outperformed Citadel Securities last year and is continuing to expand, including plans for a larger office in London.

Recall, we wrote just days ago that Jane Street reeled in a Wall Street record $39.6 billion of trading revenue last year, more than any Wall Street bank. According to the report, the firm beat out all global investment banks after reaping $15.5 billion in the year’s final quarter, and with only 3,500 employees, it beat nearest rival JPMorgan by 11% during the year. The company's adjusted ETBIDA for the full year was a stunning $31.2 billion. 

While Jane Street’s profits were lifted by surging valuations of its stakes in privately held companies, the firm’s main business matching buyers and sellers across assets thrived on bouts of market volatility. The new annual record - which includes gains on long-term investments - shows "how the balance of power has shifted in one of the most lucrative arenas of global finance."

While it has kept a remarkable low profile, its recent public appearances have been less than laudatory: The company's record haul is confirmation that Jane Street, long known for its secrecy, was able to keep growing after getting thrust into the spotlight in mid-2025 when authorities in India accused of manipulating markets while running what had once been one of the firm’s most lucrative trading strategies.

Jane Street has denied those allegations and is fighting them in court. In February, Jane Street was sued by the bankrupt Terraform Labs estate, accusing it of engaging in insider trading that precipitated the $40 billion crash of cryptocurrencies associated with Terraform; this week the HFT firm also urged a judge to throw out that lawsuit.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/03/2026 - 19:15

Jailed Iranian Nobel Peace Prize Winner Hospitalized In Critical Condition

Jailed Iranian Nobel Peace Prize Winner Hospitalized In Critical Condition

Narges Mohammadi, the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize laureate and prominent Iranian human rights activist, remains in critical condition in a hospital in Zanjan, northwestern Iran, after collapsing in prison last week with severe cardiac distress. She was transferred by ambulance to the local hospital’s coronary care unit on Friday, May 1, 2026, following repeated episodes of loss of consciousness, extreme chest pain, and blood pressure fluctuations, the NY Times reports.

Narges Mohammadi poses in an undated photo provided by her family. The Nobel laureate has suffered from heart ailments for years, according to her family. Credit...Mohammadi family

Her family and lawyer have urgently called for her transfer to a specialized facility in Tehran, where her longtime cardiologist could provide care, but Iranian judicial authorities have refused the requests. The Narges Foundation and her husband, Taghi Rahmani, who lives in exile in Paris with their children, stated that her life is in danger and described the move to the Zanjan hospital as a “last-minute” response after prison doctors determined her condition could no longer be managed on-site.

“We are extremely worried about her; she has collapsed and lost consciousness several times, and her life is in danger,” Rahmani said in an interview. “Our request is basic and urgent: send her to a hospital in Tehran immediately.” Her lawyer, Mostafa Nili, confirmed on social media that she had experienced acute cardiac crisis symptoms in recent days and was initially reluctant to go to the Zanjan facility due to her medical history, which includes multiple angiographies and stent placements.

Mohammadi, 54, has long suffered from chronic heart problems, a prior lung embolism (pulmonary embolism), and persistent headaches linked to ill-treatment in prison, including beatings by guards, according to her family and legal team. Prison authorities have repeatedly denied her adequate medical care in the past, opting instead for treatment in rudimentary prison clinics despite medical recommendations for specialized care.

This latest emergency follows a suspected heart attack in late March 2026, when she was found unconscious in her cell in Zanjan Prison on March 24. Fellow inmates reported she lay with her eyes rolled back for over an hour. Despite clear signs of cardiac distress, authorities refused hospital transfer or specialist evaluation at the time, according to reports from her legal team and visits documented by human rights groups.

She has spent much of her adult life imprisoned for her pro-democracy and women’s rights activism in Iran’s theocratic system. She was previously serving a sentence that included approximately 10 years on national security charges. In February 2026, a court added seven and a half more years—six years for “assembly and collusion against national security” and one and a half years for “propaganda activities”—along with a two-year internal exile and travel ban, bringing her total sentence to around 17–18 years, according to her foundation and lawyers.

She had been granted a yearlong medical furlough in December 2024 due to her deteriorating health but was rearrested on December 12, 2025, while attending a memorial service in Mashhad for slain human rights lawyer Khosro Alikordi. She delivered a speech critical of the government and was violently detained along with other activists. She was subsequently transferred to the more restrictive Zanjan Prison, far from her family in Tehran.

In 2023, while imprisoned, she received the Nobel Peace Prize for “her fight against the oppression of women in Iran and her fight to promote human rights and freedom for all.” The award highlighted her decades of work documenting executions, advocating against compulsory hijab laws, and supporting political prisoners.

Her current hospitalization occurs against a backdrop of intensified repression in Iran. Following nationwide anti-government protests in January 2026 and the escalation of conflict involving the United States and Israel that began in late February 2026, authorities have ramped up arrests of activists, journalists, and students. Human rights monitors report that Iran has carried out at least 22 executions of political prisoners in the past six weeks (mid-March to late April 2026), with at least 10 linked to the January protests. Dozens more face imminent risk of execution.

On April 30, 2026 (Thursday), 21-year-old Sasan Azadvar Junaqani (also spelled Jonaghani or Joonqani), a karate athlete from Isfahan, was executed in Dastgerd Prison in Isfahan. Arrested during the January protests and accused of throwing a stone at security forces and other protest-related acts, he was convicted of “moharebeh” (enmity against God) in a swift Revolutionary Court proceeding widely criticized by rights groups as a sham trial lacking due process. Iran Human Rights (IHRNGO) and HRANA documented the case as one of at least 10 protester executions tied to the recent demonstrations.

Omid Memarian, a senior fellow and Iran expert at the Washington, D.C.-based Dawn think tank focused on U.S. foreign policy, described the pattern as part of a broader campaign of intimidation enabled by the wartime environment.

“The wartime security environment has significantly increased the risks of activism in Iran, giving the government a broader pretext to use violence and making the level of repression, outside peak protest moments, considerably harsher than before the war,” Memarian said.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations declined to comment on Ms. Mohammadi’s health situation. Her family, the Narges Foundation, and international observers continue to demand her immediate transfer to Tehran for proper medical treatment and have expressed fears that delays could prove fatal. As of Saturday, May 2, and into Sunday, May 3, she remained in unstable condition in the Zanjan hospital’s intensive care unit, receiving oxygen support amid ongoing concerns from relatives and rights advocates.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/03/2026 - 18:05

Contempt Of Court: Hakeem Jeffries Denounces the Supreme Court As "Illegitimate"

Contempt Of Court: Hakeem Jeffries Denounces the Supreme Court As "Illegitimate"

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais took 36 pages to explain why Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act is about combating intentional racial discrimination, not allowing racial gerrymandering. However, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries wrapped it up in one word: “illegitimate.”

Jeffries was not speaking of the case, but the Court. The man who would become the next Speaker of the House if Democrats retake power in November has joined other radicals in denying the legitimacy of the nation’s highest court.

Just for the record, the Supreme Court did not strike down Section 2, but said that neither the law nor the Constitution allows legislators to manipulate district lines to guarantee that candidates of a particular race will be elected. It was written not to give any race an advantage, but to prevent a state from creating a disadvantage to voters based on their race. The Act prevents any State from intentionally drawing districts “to afford minority voters less opportunity because of their race.”

This is a matter upon which people of good faith can disagree. Many of the justices have been long opposed to racial criteria in areas ranging from college admissions to voting districts. Chief Justice John Roberts stated it bluntly in 2006 that “It is a sordid business, this divvying us up by race.” Like others, Roberts abhors racial discrimination but declared in another case that “way to stop discriminating on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.”

You will find no such distinctions in much of the press where experts declared the death of equal voting laws in America. UCLA Law Professor Richard Hasen dispenses with any nuance and simply ran a Slate column titled “The Slaying of the Voting Rights Act by the Coward Alito.”

For years, liberal law professors have been trashing conservative justices, including Berkeley Law Dean Erwin Chemerinsky, who called them  “partisan hacks.”

However, the name-calling has mutated into a movement to scrap the Court or the Constitution, or both. Chemerinsky wrote a book recently titled “No Democracy Lasts Forever: How the Constitution Threatens the United States.”

Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) joined Jeffries in calling for changing the Supreme Court after the decision: “we’re going to have to try to transform the way the Supreme Court has been gerrymandered itself and stacked and packed with MAGA appointees.”

There was, of course, no such movement during the decades with a liberal majority that set aside an array of long-standing cases. It was only when a stable conservative majority emerged that law professors declared the Court illegitimate or dangerous, with many calling for packing the Court with an instant liberal majority once Democrats retake power.

I discuss some of these voices as the “new Jacobins” in my book Rage and the Republic, figures echoing the radical concepts or means used in France before what became known as “The Terror.”

Law professors Ryan D. Doerfler of Harvard and Samuel Moyn of Yale have called for the nation to “reclaim America from constitutionalism.” Last December, they published a column titled “It’s Time to Accept that the US Supreme Court is Illegitimate and Must be Replaced.”

They insist that citizens must be rid of this meddlesome court: “remaking institutions like the US supreme court so that Americans don’t have to suffer future decades of oligarchy-facilitating rule that makes a parody of the democracy they were promised.”

Many Democrats realize that the public is rather attached to both the Constitution and its core institutions. That is why various Democratic politicians and pundits have been pledging to pack the Court once they are back in power.  Some have suggested that, if they are going to change the political system and retain power, they will have to do it with the help of a compliant Court.

Democratic strategist James Carville stated matter-of-factly, “They’re going to recommend that the number of Supreme Court justices go from nine to 13. That’s going to happen, people.” He added recently, “Don’t run on it. Don’t talk about it. Just do it.”

To do that, you must first delegitimate the Court. You must attack both the individual justices and the institution itself. You need true rage to get a people to tear apart the core institution of a Republic on its 250th anniversary.

Now you have the next possible Speaker of the United States declaring the Supreme Court illegitimate because he disagrees with its interpretation of the law.

What these figures do not mention is that the majority of opinions by the Supreme Court are unanimous or nearly unanimous.  A comparably few cases break along strict ideological 6-3 lines. Indeed, just last week, it was President Donald Trump who was denouncing the conservative justices as disloyal and weak for, again, ruling against his Administration.

It is not the voting record nor the underlying interpretations that are motivating this campaign of delegitimation. It is power. Former Attorney General Eric Holder explained it most clearly recently in pushing the packing plan after the Democrats retake power: “[We’re] talking about the acquisition and the use of power, if there is a Democratic trifecta in 2028.”

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the New York Times best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/03/2026 - 12:50

Big Tech Is Funding Space Solar And Fusion While Running On Gas

Big Tech Is Funding Space Solar And Fusion While Running On Gas

Authored by Haley Zaremba via OilPrice.com,

  • Meta signed a deal with startup Overview Energy to develop up to 1 gigawatt of space-based solar power, though a pilot satellite won't launch until 2028 at the earliest -- and commercial viability remains years away.

  • Despite clean energy ambitions, Big Tech is still heavily dependent on natural gas: Meta is funding 10 new gas plants for its Louisiana data center campus, and Google is building a major gas facility in North Texas.

  • Google admitted its carbon emissions rose 48% in five years and has conceded its 2030 net-zero target may be out of reach as AI energy demand continues to accelerate.

The AI boom has unleashed an energy monster unlike anything the world has ever seen before. No one is exactly sure how much energy the AI sector will require in the coming years as large language models continue to advance and expand. In fact, we don’t even really know how much energy it’s consuming now. But most experts agree that we can expect a sharp and continuing rise in demand from the data centers that power the tech sector in the coming years as the global economy increasingly integrates AI into virtually every market sector on Earth.

“AI’s integration into almost everything from customer service calls to algorithmic ‘bosses’ to warfare is fueling enormous demand,” the Washington Post reported last year. “Despite dramatic efficiency improvements, pouring those gains back into bigger, hungrier models powered by fossil fuels will create the energy monster we imagine.”

And, so far, it’s consumers who are bearing the burden of this ‘energy monster.’ As data centers place unprecedented strain on local power grids, consumers are paying the price for the extra competition at the meter. But this system is unsustainable, and in flux. In May, as a result of voter outcry ahead of the midterm elections, Big Tech firms signed a pledge to either purchase or provide their own energy supplies to power their energy-hungry data centers in order to buffer consumers from rising energy prices.

As a result, major tech firms are starting to invest more heavily in next-gen and clean energy alternatives in a bid to find ways to power their enormous future needs without throwing their climate pledges out the window. Just this week, Meta announced a deal with Overview Energy to start developing a solar power system in space, which would be able to beam energy down to Earth even in darkness.

Overview Energy is a startup seeking to put solar satellites into Earth’s orbit, where they can harvest power from the sun at all times of day and night. Meta, the company behind Facebook, has signed a deal with the energy startup to develop up to 1 gigawatt of space solar power, or the equivalent of the energy output of a nuclear reactor.

However, the deal is all theoretical at this point, as the technology of space solar has not yet caught up to the vision set out by the two companies. Overview Energy aims to launch a pilot satellite into orbit by 2028 – meaning that a gigawatt of power is still quite a few years away from becoming a reality, if it comes to fruition at all. But proponents of the technology feel that it’s just a matter of time before space-based solar becomes commercially viable, and some contend that it could even be cost-competitive with other energy sources as soon as 2040.

Silicon Valley is also investing more and more into a high-stakes bet on nuclear fusion as a silver bullet solution to slay the AI energy monster. “There’s no way to get there without a breakthrough,” Sam Altman, co-founder and CEO of ChatGPT firm OpenAI, said at the 2024 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “It motivates us to go invest more in fusion,” he went on to specify.

Tech giants, including Meta and Google are also increasingly investing in next-gen geothermal energy research, which uses enhanced drilling methods borrowed from the oil and gas sector and even, in some projects, from nuclear fusion to drill down to tap into the Earth’s heat from nearly anywhere on the surface.

In the meantime, however, Meta and other Big Tech firms are heavily relying on natural gas to power its massive AI ambitions. Meta alone is funding the development of 10 new gas-fired plants for its biggest-ever AI data center campus in rural Louisiana. Meanwhile, Google is developing a massive natural gas facility attached to a data center campus in North Texas.

So while Big Tech has major clean energy ambitions, these technologies are still years away, and real-time emissions are continuing to balloon. In 2024, Google admitted that the firm’s carbon emissions had risen 48 percent in five years thanks to the AI boom. Google had previously pledged to reach net zero by 2030, but the officials have conceded that “as we further integrate AI into our products, reducing emissions may be challenging.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/03/2026 - 11:40

Will Black Voters Rescue The GOP In 2026?

Will Black Voters Rescue The GOP In 2026?

The Republican Party is bracing for a brutal midterm election this year. Polls show Democrats ahead in the generic congressional ballot, and prediction markets give them solid odds of taking the House and a modest chance of flipping the Senate. But despite polls and prediction markets, there are signs that the GOP could defy history.

And it comes down to black voters.

Could black voters actually be the secret weapon that keeps Republicans in power after the 2026 midterms? The numbers, at least according to CNN's Harry Enten, suggest the question is worth asking seriously.

Enten laid out a striking case, walking through data that shows Donald Trump and the GOP making inroads with African American voters that the Republican Party simply hasn't seen in decades. 

While there’s no doubt that Democrats still have a solid advantage among black voters, that advantage is shrinking, and in tight races, even modest shifts can flip outcomes.

Trump's approval rating among black voters sat at 12% during his first term. It's now at 16%. It’s a modest shift that could be consequential, Enten argues, in states like Georgia, where margins are razor-thin, and every percentage point is a battleground. "Republicans absolutely love the shift that's going on," Enten said, "because Democrats have had such a long-term advantage." He argued that Trump "actually gaining ground versus where he was in term number one... has major implications for elections down the line."

The party identification numbers are another good sign for the GOP in November. Democrats have a 51-point advantage with African-American voters, which may sound good, but it’s actually a devastating number when you consider that during Trump's first term, Democrats held a 63-point advantage. 

The Democratic advantage has shrunk by 12 points. 

"This to me was absolutely stunning," Enten said, noting that the Democratic lead among black voters is now "actually smaller than any lead from 2006 to 2021" - a stretch of time that includes Barack Obama's two presidential runs.

What makes this more than just a polling curiosity is that the gains appear to be sticking. Democrats got shellacked with black voters in 2024. Trump turned in what Enten called a "historically strong performance" with that group, and Democrats had their worst showing in a generation. The natural assumption would be that some of that was a one-cycle anomaly, and that current economic concerns and opposition to the war in Iran would erase the gains Trump made. 

But the data says otherwise. 

Pre-election polling ahead of 2024 showed Kamala Harris leading among Black voters by 63 points. That number now sits at 62 points. "Republicans are holding onto the gains that they made among African Americans in 2024," Enten observed.

Whether these gains will stick after Trump leaves office remains to be seen, but as far as the 2026 midterm elections go, it’s clear there’s no Democratic bounce-back. The voters who drifted toward Trump or away from the Democratic Party haven't come back. This is a huge problem for the Democratic Party coalition, which has relied heavily on the loyalty of black voters.

 "The Donald Trump-led Republican Party is making gains among African Americans that we simply put have not seen the Republican Party make in a generation." 

The implications of these numbers is huge for the 2026 midterms.

Southern states with competitive House and Senate races depend heavily on black voter turnout and margins. This means that if Democrats are hemorrhaging even a few percentage points of that support, the math gets ugly for them really

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/03/2026 - 11:05

The Left's Reaction To Arrest Of The Latest UK Stabbing Is As Predictable As It Is Disgraceful

The Left's Reaction To Arrest Of The Latest UK Stabbing Is As Predictable As It Is Disgraceful

Authored by Paul Birch via DailySceptic.org,

These people have never been in a life-or-death situation like the arresting officers

One would think that even when the police successfully detain a suspect who was alleged to have been conducting a marauding knife attack, the professional activists would have a day off.

But you would be wrong. Amid all the ‘Don’t Look Back in Anger’ cliché bingo, voices of criticism were heard. Among them, the blue-tick career race-baiter Shola Mos-Shogbamimu. She was quick to take to X following yesterday’s attack on the Jewish community in Golders Green, north London. The 45 year-old suspect, a British national of Somali origin, had reportedly stabbed two Jewish men at random. The suspect – depressingly, inevitably – had previously been referred to the Government’s counter radicalisation programme, Prevent.

Shola Mos-Shogbamimu criticised police officers who are shown kicking the suspect in the head while he is on the ground. She opined:

Contemptible abuse of police power. Why kick him in the head several times when he’s already Tasered and in your control? Should he not be alive to be brought to justice in a court of law for stabbing two Jews??!! Disgusting.

Also, Green Party leader Zack Polanski, still playing at politics, was quick to condemn the actions of the arresting officers, using a retweet to maintain that:

Essentially his (Commissioner Mark Rowley’s) officers were reportedly and violently kicking a mentally ill man in the head when he was already incapacitated by taser.

What Shola, Zack and other commentators do not understand – because they have never been in a life-or-death situation – is that force is not judged by how it looks in a six-second clip. It is judged by necessity in the moment. These keyboard warriors have no idea what it’s like to face immediate and possibly lethal violence armed with often nothing more than some irritant spray and a stick. Your priority is to keep members of the public safe, followed by yourselves as much as possible.

These officers would have had no idea in such a fast moving situation whether the suspect was acting alone or as part of a cell. He needed to be neutralised as soon as possible in order to keep people safe. He wasn’t showing his hands; he was still holding a bloodied weapon that he had just used to attack Jewish members of the public; he had been moving rapidly towards them, and they would have had no idea if he was wearing an explosive vest (wearing a coat on a warm day is never a good sign).

Policing is not theatre. It is not performed for social media approval. It is messy, fast and often brutal. Because the people officers deal with are messy, fast and often brutal. A man armed with a knife who has already stabbed two people, who refuses repeated commands to disarm and who continues to pose a threat even after being tasered, is not “under control”. He is an active danger until the weapon is removed. That is the reality, no matter how uncomfortable it makes Left-leaning commentators feel.

The idea that officers should politely wait or somehow apply ‘gentler’ tactics while a suspect still has the capacity to kill is not just naïve in the extreme, it is dangerous. It puts officers’ lives at risk. It puts the public at risk. And it reveals a complete detachment from reality (I am reminded of the occasion when then Labour Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, declared that Islamic State murderer Mohammed ‘Jihadi John’ Emwazi should have been arrested in war-torn Syria rather than killed.)

This is the gap at the heart of modern public debate on policing. One side deals in real-world consequences. The other deals in optics. The officers in Golders Green had seconds to act. Not minutes. Not the luxury of hindsight, slow-motion replays or viral commentary. Seconds. In those seconds they made unquestionably the right decision: remove the threat as quickly as possible, by whatever means necessary short of lethal force. And that point matters. Because the same voices now condemning ‘excessive force’ would be the first to demand answers if those officers had hesitated and others had been stabbed.

There is also an uncomfortable truth that many would rather avoid: this attack was not just violent, it was targeted. Two visibly Jewish men were attacked in broad daylight in a part of London with a large Jewish community. That context matters. It should matter. It’s part of an ever growing pattern of antisemitic attacks carried out by people holding extreme Islamist ideologies.

Yet instead of sustained outrage about antisemitic violence, the conversation was almost immediately derailed, redirected toward the conduct of the officers who stopped it. That inversion of priorities is telling.

It reflects a culture where the instinct is no longer to back those who confront violence but to scrutinise them first, and often most harshly. Where the benefit of the doubt is extended to offenders, those enforcing the law are expected to meet an impossible standard of perfection under extreme pressure – often from their own senior management.

And it is precisely this culture that erodes effective policing. If every split-second decision is second guessed by people with no operational understanding, officers will become more hesitant. More risk-averse. Less pro-active. That is not compassion. It is a recipe for more victims.

None of this means police should be beyond scrutiny. Of course they shouldn’t be. But scrutiny requires context. It requires full evidence. It requires intellectual honesty. A selectively edited clip on social media is not scrutiny. It is propaganda. That is the real issue here.

Not just one commentator getting it wrong, but an entire ecosystem that rewards outrage over accuracy, speed over truth and narrative over fact. The Metropolitan Police, to their credit, did something increasingly necessary: they put out the full body-worn footage. They showed the public what actually happened. And when people saw the complete picture, the narrative collapsed. Because reality is stubborn like that.

In the end, strip away the noise and the incentives of social media and the situation becomes very simple. A violent attacker stabbed two innocent men. Two unarmed officers confronted him. They stopped him. They went home alive, and so did everyone else.

That is not a scandal. That is policing working exactly as it should.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/03/2026 - 09:20

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