The Next Nuclear Story Stock: ASP Isotopes Shares Surge After Supply Contract For Silicon-28 And U.S. Radiopharmacy Acquisition

ASP Isotopes, a name we pointed out to our subscribers about one week ago, is up more than 13% this morning after it issued a business update that highlights how well-positioned it is across both technology and medical applications.

ASP announced its largest-ever supply contract for enriched silicon-28 and a strategic acquisition of a U.S.-based radiopharmacy — two moves that deepen its exposure to the fast-growing quantum computing and nuclear medicine markets.

LEU just hit $400.

For those looking for a cheap uranium enrichment alternative, we told subs 1 week ago to go long ASPI. It's starting to move. https://t.co/i1t7vf3bdl

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 10, 2025

This morning the company said it “entered into a supply contract with a U.S.-based customer for enriched silicon-28, with deliveries expected during Q1 2026,” calling it “the Company’s largest silicon-28 contract to date.”

Enriched silicon-28 is a critical material for quantum computing and advanced semiconductor architectures. As the company explained, “By removing the nuclear spin noise present in natural silicon, enriched silicon-28 provides a pristine environment for qubits, dramatically improving coherence times and overall device performance.” This makes the material foundational for scalable, fault-tolerant quantum processors — the building blocks of the quantum computing revolution.

Chief Commercial Officer Viktor Petkov emphasized the growing demand: “This significant customer order for silicon-28 underscores how our Electronic Gases strategy is gaining real traction across multiple end markets. Enriched silicon is emerging as a cornerstone material not only for quantum computing but also for high-precision semiconductor and photonics applications. Our goal is to become the world’s most reliable supplier of enriched silane and other isotopically pure gases — a foundation for the technologies driving the next industrial revolution.”

In addition to its quantum-related progress, the company announced its first U.S. acquisition in nuclear medicine — the purchase of an independent radiopharmacy in Florida to complement and expand PET Labs, its South African radiopharmaceutical operation. The acquisition is “expected to be accretive to 2026 revenues, EBITDA and EPS,” and marks PET Labs’ first step beyond South Africa. The Florida facility currently offers SPECT services, with PET Labs planning to add PET services by 2027 to expand diagnostic capabilities and revenue.

ASP’s proprietary Aerodynamic Separation Process (ASP Technology) allows it to enrich both light and heavy isotopes, giving it reach across multiple critical trillion-dollar markets. The company is targeting demand “for isotopes such as Silicon-28, which will enable quantum computing, and Molybdenum-100, Molybdenum-98, Zinc-68, Ytterbium-176, and Nickel-64 for new, emerging healthcare applications, as well as Chlorine-37, Lithium-6, and Uranium-235 for green energy applications.”

As global supply chains for strategic materials tighten, ASP Isotopes’ position at the intersection of advanced computing, nuclear medicine, and clean energy could make it one of the most strategically valuable small-cap names in the sector.

ASPI remains one of our favorite names in the nuclear space — and a company we believe stands to benefit meaningfully from two of the most powerful macro themes ahead: the Trump administration’s stated interest in taking stakes in key U.S. commodity and energy suppliers, and the AI boom’s insatiable need for power, which we think will increasingly have to come from nuclear.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 12:20

MIT Says It Will Not Sign Trump Admin's Higher Education Compact

Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has declined to sign onto the Trump administration’s proposed compact, which would mandate campus reforms in exchange for preferential access to federal funding.

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) campus in Cambridge, Mass., on May 25, 2025. Learner Liu/The Epoch Times

MIT President Sally Kornbluth announced the decision on Oct. 10 in a campus-wide letter attaching her formal response to Education Secretary Linda McMahon, who invited nine universities to sign the new agreement.

The proposed “Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education” would require participating universities to freeze tuition for five years, limit international student enrollment, and adopt the federal government’s biology-based definitions of sex and gender when it comes to sports or single-sex spaces.

Other provisions call for reinstating the SAT requirement for applicants, curbing grade inflation, prohibiting the use of race and sex as factors in admissions or employment, and reforming or dismantling departments that “purposefully punish, belittle, and even spark violence against conservative ideas.”

MIT ‘Cannot Support the Proposed Approach’

In her response, Kornbluth acknowledged that MIT shares some of the administration’s stated goals, such as focusing on merit, reducing costs for students, and upholding free expression.

“These values and other MIT practices meet or exceed many standards outlined in the document you sent. We freely choose these values because they’re right, and we live by them because they support our mission—work of immense value to the prosperity, competitiveness, health, and security of the United States. And of course, MIT abides by the law,” Kornbluth wrote.

She also noted that MIT disagreed with a number of the demands, saying that they “would restrict freedom of expression and our independence as an institution” and that the premise of the document is inconsistent with MIT’s core belief that “scientific funding should be based on scientific merit alone.”

“In our view, America’s leadership in science and innovation depends on independent thinking and open competition for excellence,” Kornbluth wrote.

“In that free marketplace of ideas, the people of MIT gladly compete with the very best, without preferences. Therefore, with respect, we cannot support the proposed approach to addressing the issues facing higher education.”

MIT is the first of the nine universities invited to join the compact to publicly reject it. The administration also invited Brown University, Dartmouth College, the University of Arizona, the University of Pennsylvania, the University of Southern California, the University of Texas at Austin, the University of Virginia, and Vanderbilt University.

It’s unclear why those particular institutions were chosen or whether other schools will be offered the same terms.

The Department of Education did not respond to requests for comment from The Epoch Times by publication time.

Mixed Reactions Across Invited Schools

Dartmouth and UPenn have publicly addressed the compact, emphasizing their commitment to academic autonomy, but stopping short of outright rejecting it.

Dartmouth president Sian Leah Beilock, for example, wrote that she was “deeply committed to Dartmouth’s academic mission and values and will always defend our fierce independence,” adding that the university “will never compromise our academic freedom and our ability to govern ourselves.”

UPenn President J. Larry Jameson, meanwhile, said he would seek input from the campus community, including the Ivy League school’s trustees and faculty, before making any decision on the compact.

By contrast, University of Texas System Board of Regents Chairman Kevin Eltife, a former Republican state senator, said that the university was “honored” to be among those selected and that the board would “review the compact immediately.”

“We welcome the new opportunity presented to us, and we look forward to working with the Trump administration on it,” Eltife said in a statement to student newspaper The Daily Texan.

Democratic States Threaten Funding Cuts

Some Democratic state leaders have moved to discourage universities from signing the compact by threatening to withhold funding.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has warned that any institution in his state that signs the agreement would lose state funding, including access to Cal Grants, the state’s largest financial aid program.

In Virginia, Democrats in the state Senate issued a similar warning to the University of Virginia, threatening “significant consequences in future Virginia budget cycles” if the university joined the compact.

The UVA responded with a noncommittal statement, as reported by the student newspaper The Cavalier Daily, reiterating that its decisions would be guided by the university’s founding principles of integrity and academic freedom.

A pair of Pennsylvania lawmakers have also said they want to bar colleges that receive state funding from signing onto the compact.

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Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 12:00

Broadcom Shares Soar On 10-Gigawatt Chip Deal With OpenAI 

Shares of Broadcom surged early in the U.S. cash session after the chip designer signed a multiyear agreement with Sam Altman's OpenAI to co-develop 10 gigawatts of custom AI accelerators and systems, marking a strategic move toward vertically integrated AI infrastructure such as data centers. This follows recent deals between the ChatGPT creator and both Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, and comes less than two weeks after we described the stunning math behind AI vendor financing, calling it an epic "circle jerk."

"Broadcom's collaboration with OpenAI signifies a pivotal moment in the pursuit of artificial general intelligence," Broadcom CEO Hock Tan stated in a press release, adding, "OpenAI has been in the forefront of the AI revolution since the ChatGPT moment, and we are thrilled to co-develop and deploy 10 gigawatts of next- generation accelerators and network systems to pave the way for the future of AI."

Here are the highlights of the Broadcom-OpenAI deal:

• Partnership Overview: OpenAI and Broadcom announced a major collaboration to co-develop 10 gigawatts of custom AI accelerators, marking a strategic move toward vertically integrated AI infrastructure.

• Custom Chip Design: OpenAI will design its own AI accelerators and system architecture, embedding insights from developing frontier models directly into hardware to boost performance and efficiency.

• Broadcom Role: Broadcom will develop and deploy the systems using its Ethernet, PCIe, and optical connectivity solutions, scaling racks designed to meet the global surge in AI computing demand across OpenAI's facilities and partner data centers.

• Strategic Importance: The initiative allows OpenAI to reduce dependence on third-party chips (e.g., Nvidia) and tailor hardware to its unique model workloads, while Broadcom cements its leadership in AI networking and semiconductor solutions.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman commented on the partnership, saying, "Partnering with Broadcom is a critical step in building the infrastructure needed to unlock AI's potential and deliver real benefits for people and businesses. Developing our own accelerators adds to the broader ecosystem of partners all building the capacity required to push the frontier of AI to provide benefits to all humanity."

In September, Nvidia announced plans to supply at least 10 gigawatts of its AI systems to power OpenAI's next-generation infrastructure for training and deploying future models. As part of the agreement, Nvidia committed to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, with the funds disbursed incrementally as each gigawatt of capacity comes online.

Nvidia announced another partnership last week, this time with AMD, for six gigawatts' worth of chips, starting with the Instinct MI450 series. Unlike the deal with Nvidia, OpenAI has a warrant to purchase 160 million shares of AMD's stock that translates to just under 10% of AMD, based on the number of outstanding shares.

We made this circular scheme famous earlier this month:

• The Stunning Math Behind The AI Vendor Financing "Circle Jerk"

In markets, Broadcom shares jumped nearly 10%. Year to date, shares are up 48%. 

Like clockwork, yet another AI deal rolls out, blowing the AI bubble even further.

Hm. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 11:40

For Many, This Recession Will Feel Like A Depression

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The conventional means to drag the economy out of recession have all reached their limits and will no longer work as anticipated.

We’re often told this time it’s different, and this time, it’s true--but not in the way those issuing the claim expect.

I’m often dismissed as a doomer, and I interpret this as a reflection of the accusers’ intense commitment to The Fairy Tale version of the economy, in which a new technological or financial “innovation” enables us to consume more of everything forever and ever.

As you’ll see, what’s presented here are data--facts. How we interpret them is up to us, and this explains the profound need of apologists to distort or ignore the data to follow The Fairy Tale narrative.

The primary means of distorting data is to lump all 135 million US households / 340 million residents into one bucket. In doing so, we magically make unprecedented wealth and income inequality disappear: look at the vast pool of cash sitting in money market funds, look at the trillions of home equity, 401K accounts, and so on: we’re rich, so what’s the worry?

But this is artifice: the vast majority of this wealth (68%, $113 trillion) is in the hands of 13.5 million households, the top 10%. The bottom 50%--170 million people--own 2.5% of the wealth--$4 trillion, a wafer-thin 3.5% of the wealth held by the top 10%.

According to an article in the Wall Street Journal (April, 2025, WSJ.com, $1 Trillion of Wealth Was Created for the 19 Richest U.S. Households Last Year), 19 households own $2.6 trillion in net worth, the same as 110 million Americans.

The top 1% (3.4 million people) own 31% of all net worth ($52 trillion), more than the net worth of all those in the 50% to 90% segment (136 million people).

The top 10% collect the lion’s share of all income and account for 50% of all spending.

It’s been reported that 41.7 million American workers (31% of the workforce) earn under $12 an hour. A brookings.edu report (2020) found that the median hourly wage of 53 million American workers (ages 18-64, 44% of the workforce) is $10.22, and their full-time annual incomes are about $24,000.

Many of the lowest-paid workers have received a significant bump up in wages, but even a 10% to 20% increase barely moves the needle when we consider that the median full-time wage earnings in the US are $62,000.

I presented all this data in The Winners and Losers in 21st Century America.

The real story of the US economy over the past 50 years is not The Fairy Tale narrative. The real story is easily visible in the data: wages’ share of the economy have plummeted, reducing the standard of living of wage earners, and the official response has been to rely on financial gimmicks to keep expanding consumption/GDP with borrowed money.

Money supply has expanded faster than the economy, as has debt, as reducing interest rates encourages more borrowing which then inflates assets, generating “the wealth effect” when then boosts more borrowing and spending, a so-called virtuous cycle of expanding debt based on assets expanding in value, enabling even more debt.

But this reliance on asset bubbles to generate wealth and consumption has exacerbated wealth and income inequality, as the system is designed to benefit those who already own assets and who have access to low-cost credit, i.e. the already-wealthy.

The vast majority of unearned income flowing from capital (rental properties, stocks, bonds, business ownership) flow to the top of the wealth pyramid.

According to economist Branko Milanovic, who studies wealth and income inequality, the median annual per capita income from financial assets in the U.S. is $21.89. Yes, $22, enough for a few Happy Meals.

This chart tells the real story: a relative handful of households (the top 0.1%) collect the vast majority of unearned investment income, while the vast majority of households collect a few dollars.

The strategy of replacing rising purchasing power of wages with asset bubbles has not just widened wealth and income inequality to levels that make social disorder increasingly inevitable, it also has left the entire economy increasingly precarious, as substituting debt and asset bubbles for earned income has left most households exposed to extraordinary risks they don’t control, i.e. the stock and housing bubbles bursting and the financial fallout as “the wealth effect” reverses. This will push the economy into a self-reinforcing feedback loop. a.k.a. doom loop.

The substitution of debt for income is self-liquidating, as at some point--what we call debt saturation--the borrower’s income is devoted solely to essential expenses and servicing existing debt: there is no more discretionary income left to fund more borrowing.

In other words, as debt expands, so too does the interest and principal due every month, and eventually this debt service plus non-discretionary spending consumes all income.

The conventional means to drag the economy out of recession--cut taxes, lower interest rates and increase federal spending to juice consumption--have all reached their limits and will no longer work as anticipated.

Federal taxes are already paid primarily by the top 10%, so “tax cuts” only benefit the already-wealthy. The “married filing jointly” tax brackets for 2026 are 10% up to $24,800 and 12% up to $100,800. If a two-income household only takes the standard deduction of $32,200, that means that a household income of $133,000 is only taxed at a maximum rate of 12%--not much above the lowest rate.

According to the US Census Bureau, the median household income in 2024 was $83,730.

So tax cuts won’t help the bottom 90% in any measurable degree.

As for lowering interest rates, as I’ve noted previously, the world has changed and the Great Moderation of 2000-2020 is no longer with us. What enabled rates to drop to near-zero was the deflationary impulse of China’s expansion as the world’s workshop: as China tapped its low-cost coal reserves and (at the time) low-wage workforce, that generated a global wave of deflation that offset the other forces pushing inflation higher.

With that deflationary wave gone, there are no replacement sources of deflation: with global trade wars and risks rising, the risk premium to borrow capital has risen globally and cannot be manipulated back down to zero.

Many expect the Federal Reserve to reach deep into its bag of tricks and push rates back to zero to “save the economy from recession,” but the Fed has seen what happens when you make this artifice your go-to policy: as Japan as shown, the result is stagnation, for the only way to clear the economy for a legitimate return to expansion is to let the asset bubbles deflate and absorb the resulting losses of bankruptcies, defaults and writedowns of debts that can never be paid back.

Since such a clearing of bad debt would hurt banks and the wealthy who own the debt as assets, this is anathema to the Fed and the political leadership.

Even if the headline interest rates drop, this won’t reduce credit card rates or student loan rates for the bottom 90%--they will remain at nosebleed levels. Those with less than excellent credit ratings will also find rates don’t drop because the Fed waved its magic wand.

In an economy that has reached debt saturation, lowering rates will accomplish nothing. The top 10% don’t need to borrow as they own 68% of the wealth and the bottom 90% will find their ability to borrow limited--and unwise.

As for the mortgage-refinance boom that fueled consumption in the Great Moderation, that’s also a non-starter, as relatively few homeowners have 7+% mortgages. The majority are sitting on mortgages at rates that may never be revisited.

And as for the federal government boosting its spending to extricate the economy from recession--the federal government is already borrowing and spending as if we’re already mired in a Depression.

The asset-bubble wealth is largely phantom wealth, an artifact of goosing money supply, debt and stocks with corporate buybacks, which by some reports account for 80% of the entire stock market gains since 2009.

If net worth had tracked inflation, total net worth would be $76 trillion, not $167 trillion. This suggests net worth could fall by half and still have registered gains from 2001.

Back to the self-reinforcing feedback loop. It’s been 45 years since the US experienced a real recession, one that couldn’t be reversed with the gimmicks of goosing money supply and debt and lowering interest rates.

In a real recession, job losses trigger further job losses, as enterprises, households and local governments (that can’t borrow to fund their general-fund expenses) reduce spending. As I noted in Crunch Time for Cities, Counties and States, local governments have few ways to trim expenses other than firing employees.

If AI follows even part of the script promoted by its boosters--that AI will replace millions of human workers--this will only accelerate the self-reinforcing feedback of job losses, reduced hours, slashed benefits, business closures, etc.

The problem is the artifices of depending on asset bubbles and soaring debt to generate “growth” have hollowed out the economy at the most basic level, leaving many households, local governments and small businesses in an extraordinarily precarious position: all credit-asset bubbles pop, and the more gimmicks that are applied, the greater the destruction.

A great many households are not prepared for the loss of a job. Many others are not prepared for a historically “average” 40% drop in their stock portfolios and home equity. Local governments are not prepared for severe declines in income taxes, sales taxes, property taxes and business-related fees.

Many small businesses are barely hanging on due to soaring costs and proprietor burnout.

The official policies of replacing increases in the purchasing power of wages with the artifices of expanding debt and credit-asset bubbles have reached their limits, and rather than solutions they are now the problem--a problem whose only resolution is the destruction of the phantom wealth via bankruptcy, default and writedowns of debt that will never be paid back.

This is not what the wealthy who own the debt want to hear, so their lackeys and apologists spin Fairy Tales about AI, modular nuclear reactors, fusion, and so on, as if the problems were somehow technological rather than the extremes of inequality created by extremes of financial artifice.

Those with the thinnest buffers may well experience the recession as a Depression. In maintaining the illusion of “growth” and “wealth,” we’ve thinned the system’s buffers to the point where any shock will collapse structures that looked solid because maintaining the appearance of stability was the entire point.

This extraordinary exposure to risks and precarity is not new. This report is from 2017: We Tracked Every Dollar 235 U.S. Households Spent for a Year, and Found Widespread Financial Vulnerability.

In many ways, the official response to the fraud-speculation driven Global Financial Meltdown--save the banks and goose “growth” by expanding debt and inflating asset bubbles--generated this massive increase in exposure to risk and precarity.

Those with the thickest buffers--those with zero debt, extremely frugal lifestyles and low fixed costs (i.e. owning a home free and clear in a low-property tax region, etc.) and recession-proof incomes may well wonder what all the fuss is about--they’ll do fine.

Build a fake structure fabricated of artifice, debt and gimmicks, and it should not be a surprise that it comes apart when the wind rises. (Charts below)

Total debt:

Money supply:

Wages share of the economy:

Housing bubble #2:

Net personal wealth:

Financial wealth held by the bottom 50%:

As I have noted, it’s free to prepare a Plan B and a Plan C, with Plan B being a response to the loss of a job or a decline in home valuations, and Plan C being our response to losses from which there is no plausible road to recovery.

CHS NOTE: I understand few readers can afford to support my work, and I appreciate you few who can and choose to subscribe in recognition that something here may change your life in a practical, useful way. Thank you for supporting my work.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 11:20

The Myth Of Falling Crime: Why Americans Don't Trust The Numbers

Authored by Armstring Williams via The Epoch Times,

Every election season, mayors and governors step before cameras to boast that crime is down.

Charts are waved, statistics cited, and carefully crafted talking points deployed to assure anxious citizens that their streets are safer than ever.

Yet when you leave the press conference and walk the sidewalks of Baltimore, Chicago, or Los Angeles, the reality feels far different.

The gap between official numbers and lived experience is wide enough to swallow public trust whole.

The reason for this disconnect is simple: Most crime never gets reported in the first place.

The Baltimore Sun recently highlighted what criminologists have known for decades—about half of all crime in America isn’t captured in police data. Burglaries are only reported 45 percent of the time. Simple assaults, 37 percent. Sexual assaults, a shameful 21 percent. Think about that for a moment: Nearly four out of five sexual assaults never reach the official record. Yet politicians still spin a story that safety is improving.

Why aren’t Americans calling the cops? For many, it’s because they believe the system won’t deliver justice. Victims of property crimes often assume police won’t recover stolen items. Domestic violence survivors fear financial ruin if their abuser is arrested. Immigrants worry that calling 911 might lead to a knock on the door from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). In cities like Baltimore, there is a deeply rooted stigma against “snitching” that makes reporting crimes socially dangerous. And for those who simply distrust the police, staying silent feels safer than engaging.

Here’s the political problem: Declining reported crime becomes the official narrative, but citizens’ fear of crime continues to climb. Gallup recently noted Americans are near record highs in expressing concern about violent crime. This is not paranoia—it’s the rational conclusion of people who judge their safety not by government reports but by what they see in their neighborhoods, what they hear from friends, and what they experience personally.

The anecdote of Julian and Kristen Mack, attacked in Baltimore by a group of teenagers, is telling. They never called police because they feared the children might be shot. Another former Homeland Security Department official recounted being assaulted in a D.C. coffee shop but choosing not to report it because he believed nothing meaningful would happen to the mentally ill attacker. When even former law enforcement officers don’t bother reporting crime, the legitimacy of the system is in question.

So what happens next? Officials trumpet lower homicides or robberies as proof of progress. They cut ribbons on new community initiatives and point to “data-driven policing” as evidence of reform. But residents quietly arm themselves, avoid walking alone at night, and lose faith in institutions meant to protect them. A society where people stop trusting the guardians of order is a society drifting toward vigilantism.

This is not just a policing issue—it’s a governance issue. A political class eager to tout success selectively leans on crime statistics that do not represent reality. Meanwhile, communities drowning in fear feel gaslit. That disconnect breeds cynicism, disengagement, and eventually rage. It is one reason why “law and order” rhetoric resonates so powerfully in American politics. People know something is wrong, even if official numbers deny it.

Rebuilding trust requires a cultural and institutional shift. First, public safety leaders must stop treating crime statistics as political props. Transparency demands acknowledging the limits of reported data and the reasons victims stay silent. Second, cities must address why people don’t report crime—fear of retaliation, distrust of police, and inefficiencies in prosecution. This means deeper community policing, stronger witness protections, and reforms in how cases are handled.

Politicians must stop assuming that fear of crime is just an irrational voter quirk. Fear is a rational response to disorder. If a mother refuses to let her children play outside because drug dealers loiter on the corner, it does not matter if homicides are technically down 12 percent. Her world is not safe, and no statistic will convince her otherwise.

The lesson here is timeless: Statistics do not govern...trust does. Crime numbers can be massaged, but fear cannot. If Americans no longer believe in the story their leaders are telling them, they will write their own—and it will not be a story kind to those in charge.

*  *  *

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 10:40

India Funds Halt Silver ETF Investment Amid Unprecedented Global Shortage

Amid the unprecedented shortage in the physical silver market (that we detailed here), a number of Indian asset managers have halted all new investments into Silver ETFs.

In India, the world's biggest silver consumer, silver premium over official domestic prices jumped as much as 10% on Thursday because of strong investment demand ahead of a key festival and limited supplies, bullion dealers said.

Kotak Mutual Fund on Thursday temporarily halted new purchases in a plan linked to its Indian silver exchange-traded fund, citing a domestic shortage that has driven prices above global levels.

"Kotak Silver ETF is an open-ended Exchange Traded Fund replicating/tracking price of Silver, which reflects the domestic price of silver. Therefore, the premium in domestic silver prices directly impacts the valuation of the Scheme," the company said.

Kotak Silver ETF Fund of Fund invests in units of Kotak Silver ETF, which tracks the local price of the precious metal. The fund had assets of 2.25 billion rupees ($25 million) in August, and has risen over 80% this year.

"Investors are requested to note that in recent weeks, silver has witnessed a sharp surge in demand, driven by global macroeconomic factors and increased investor interest in commodities.

However, the current limited availability of physical silver has constrained the creation of new units by ETFs at the indicative NAV (iNAV)."

Following Kotak's decision, EconomicTimes.com reports that UTI Mutual Fund and SBI Mutual Fund have also now suspended fresh subscriptions to their Silver ETF Fund of Funds, effective immediately.

Since silver-linked funds must purchase the physical metal to back up new investments, the asset managers chose to pause fresh inflows until supply conditions stabilize.

“Whenever the spot premium aligns with the import parity price, the fund-of-fund will open for subscription,” Chief Executive Nilesh Shah said in a post on X.

Redemptions will continue as before, he said.

Bloomberg reports that Nippon India Silver ETF has surged 86% this year, pushing its historical premium to net asset value to a two-year high, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The fund has 152 billion rupees in assets.

“This is a global phenomenon, not limited to India, and festive and seasonal demand has provided an additional boost,” said Vikram Dhawan, fund manager and head of commodities at Nippon India.

As we previously detailed, Goldman believes this squeeze will be temporary expecting that within 1-2 weeks we’ll see significant physical inflows from China and the US into LBMA and the curve ultimately eases, but the path will be bumpy, euphemistically speaking.

A quick glimpse at the annualized 1 month silver lease rate...

...tells you the unwind of the physical shortage is far from over.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 10:25

Trump Urges Pardon For Netanyahu At Knesset: "Cigars & Champagne, Who The Hell Cares?"

"Hey, I have an idea Mr President: Why don't you give him a pardon? Give him a pardon, come on," Trump said, pointing at Netanyahu during his big Monday speech before the Knesset in Jerusalem, upon the historic release of all remaining Israeli hostages by Hamas.

Trump stated: "By the way, that was not in the speech, you probably know." He said this as pro-Netanyahu lawmakers gave Trump a long standing ovation, which actually happened more than once during and after the somewhat lengthy address. When Trump talked about the idea of a pardon, Knesset members shouted: "Bibi! Bibi!"

Image: Pool/TOI

Pointing at Herzog, President Trump said: "But I happen to like this gentleman over here, and it just seems to make so much sense."

That's when he called Netanyahu "one of the greatest" wartime leaders, adding: "And cigars and Champagne, who the hell cares?"

The Netanyahu trial goes back to 2019, and over the years Trump has at times called the whole saga "politically motivated" and asserted that the prime minister been through a "Horror Show".

The trial focuses on three corruption cases - including charges of fraud and breach of trust, as well as charges of bribery. The allegations range from illegally receiving expensive gifts based on political favors, to quid pro quo agreements with some Israeli media sources for more favorable coverage, to authorizing telecom-related regulatory decisions to benefit friends and allies.

The opposition in Israel has long accused Netanyahu of seeking prolong the war in Gaza for the sake of his own political survival - all while living a lavish lifestyle. 

As for Trump's reference to "cigars and Champagne" during his Monday speech, Newsweek reviews of the pending case that--

Evidence submitted includes recordings, text messages, and police documents. Notably, testimony from key figures including Hollywood producer Arnon Milchan has brought to light extravagant gifts allegedly given to Netanyahu and his wife, including Champagne and cigars.

Trump calls on the Israeli President to pardon Netanyahu:

"Cigars and champagne - who the hell cares about it?"

Netanyahu is standing trial for bribery, fraud and breach of trust, including allegedly accepting 700,000 shekels (approx. $210,000) worth of luxury goods in bribes. pic.twitter.com/iN9wqkSWut

— Adam Schwarz (@AdamJSchwarz) October 13, 2025

Trump was thanked by Netanyahu during the Knesset proceedings for his "pivotal leadership in putting forward a proposal that got the backing of almost the entire world."

He said of Trump's ceasefire plan that it "brings all our hostages home" and "ends the war by achieving all our objectives" and it also "opens the door to an historic expansion of peace in our region and beyond our region."

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 10:20

Columbus Day Celebrates Western Civilization

Authored by Daniel McCarthy via RealClearPolitics.com,

Battles over Columbus Day aren't really about Christopher Columbus at all -- they're about whether America should exist.

"Columbus's journey carried thousands of years of wisdom, philosophy, reason, and culture across the Atlantic into the Americas -- paving the way for the ultimate triumph of Western civilization less than three centuries later on July 4, 1776," President Donald Trump says in his Columbus Day proclamation.

Yet that's why the holiday has so many enemies.

Unlike progressive movements of decades past, today's ideological left doesn't particularly want to lay claim to America's heritage.

Even the Communist Party USA once made an effort to brand its radical creed as 20th-century "Americanism."

Karl Marx himself saw the spread of bourgeois civilization as inevitable and even necessary for creating the conditions of worldwide class revolution.

That civilization is what opponents of Columbus Day reject.

Columbus extended the horizons of Western civilization, which is what the holiday in his name recognizes.

Yes, Italian Americans are especially proud of Columbus, a son of Italy and the seafaring republic of Genoa in particular.

But this isn't just an ethnic holiday -- everyone whose ancestors weren't already in this hemisphere when Columbus arrived owes the heroic explorer a debt of gratitude.

By forging permanent ties between the Americas and the wider world, Columbus made our lives and way of life possible.

He opened the way not only for Europeans and Christians like himself but ultimately for people of every land and religion to seek freedom, safety and opportunity in a New World without the class constraints and ancient hatreds of the Old World.

In 1492, the same year Columbus sailed into the uncharted Atlantic, his Spanish royal patrons banished Jews from their land -- yet because of Columbus's discoveries, Jews would one day find a haven half a world away from the persecutions they long endured elsewhere.

Columbus didn't introduce slavery to the Americas -- the natives already had that evil institution before Europeans came.

He did, however, set in motion the end of the New World's own characteristic horrors, such as the Aztecs' human sacrifices and the cannibalism practiced by the Caribs.

Columbus deserves no blame for the diseases that devastated native populations: Sooner or later, these peoples with no immunity to infections which most of the human race had contended with for generations would have suffered the same tragic fate from contact with the outside world.

The Black Death that ravaged medieval Europe came from abroad, too, from contact with Asia -- only in the modern world, as a result of Western science and medicine, is humanity free to travel and trade with little fear pestilence will follow.

And when new diseases like COVID do spread around the globe, the resources of civilization that Columbus helped spread are able to meet the threat.

Columbus Day is not meant to be a saint's day.

Like our nation's Founding Fathers, Columbus was flawed, and his reputation bears the stains of his age's evils, including slavery.

But like them, Columbus was an exemplar of much that is best in our character.

He was the first and, in many ways, an archetypal American, an enterprising immigrant who risked everything for a new hope, who not only set out to improve his family's lot in life but understood his work as service to God.

He was our first pioneer, and he's been honored in the United States since the late 18th century, when New York City's Society of Tammany -- also known as the Columbian Order -- began celebrating his October birthday.

The federal holiday is more recent, with Congress first asking Franklin Roosevelt to proclaim a day for Columbus in the 1930s, and the statutory holiday established in 1971.

But it's the pitched opposition to Columbus that's really novel.

Mayor Eric Adams has had to urge New York's Landmarks Preservation Commission to grant protected status to the admiral's statues, so Zohran Mamdani can't tear them down if he becomes mayor.

On college campuses and in state capitals across the country, left-wing activists call for replacing Columbus Day with an "Indigenous Peoples Day."

It's an ironic demand since the very notion of indigenous peoples only makes sense from a Eurocentric point of view.

Because every "indigenous" group at some point migrated from someplace else -- usually displacing older, more indigenous populations in the process -- the term doesn't refer to the original inhabitants of any land.

Instead, it means populations predating the arrival of Europeans or other ideologically disfavored groups: Jews certainly aren't indigenous enough to the Holy Land for the "anti-colonialist" left.

Columbus Day celebrates the birthday of Western civilization as something not confined only to Europe.

Yet in our country, all too many of this civilization's spoiled heirs regret the very achievements that have made their existence possible, including the supreme achievements of Christopher Columbus.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 10:00

Rare Earth Stocks Go Vertical After Report Pentagon To Go On $1 Billion Critical Mineral "Buying Spree"

We’ve been bullish on rare earth miners for over three months— long before the mainstream press caught on. While the media is just catching up, Zerohedge have hopefully been enjoying locking in multiples of gains in popular rare earth stocks like USA Rare Earths (USAR) and MP Materials (MP) as the Pentagon is quietly ramping up its billion-dollar mineral stockpiling spree, now being highlighted by the Financial Times over the weekend. 

Recall, all the way back on July 11th we wrote "The Coming Rare Earth Revolution And How To Profit" for our premium subscribers.USAR was trading at about $11 at the time is is bid at $38 this morning. MP Materials was trading at about $45 at the time and this morning is bid at about $86.

3 months later https://t.co/RHameHvU2H pic.twitter.com/F8A6faaNB7

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 12, 2025

According to filings from the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), the U.S. Department of Defense has moved to secure up to $1 billion in critical minerals — from cobalt and antimony to scandium and tantalum — as part of a global race to reduce dependence on China, according to Financial Times. 

One former defense official summed it up: “They’re definitely looking for more, and they’re doing it in a deliberate and expansive way.”

The acceleration follows China’s sweeping new export controls on rare earths, which prompted Donald Trump to cancel a planned meeting with Xi Jinping, warning: “There is no way that China should be allowed to hold the world ‘captive’ but that seems to have been their plan.”

The Pentagon’s urgency is clear. “China’s ability to turn off the supply of these critical minerals would have a direct, palpable and adverse effect on US ability to field the kind of high-tech capabilities that we’re going to need for any kind of strategic competition or conflict,” said Stephanie Barna of Covington & Burling in Washington.

FT writes that recent DLA filings show proposed purchases including $500 million in cobalt, $245 million in antimony from U.S. Antimony Corp (USAC), $100 million in tantalum, and $45 million in scandium from Rio Tinto and APL Engineered Materials.

Analysts at Jefferies said the Rio Tinto scandium deal was priced “higher than market expectations.” The DLA itself noted that Chinese export controls had “constrained the supply chain.”

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA) adds fuel — $7.5 billion earmarked for critical minerals, including $2 billion to fortify the national stockpile and another $5 billion to expand U.S. supply chains. As one former official put it, offices handling mineral security are now “flush with cash.”

Some in the industry were stunned by the scale. “Market participants have been taken aback by the volumes requested by the DLA,” said Cristina Belda of Argus Media. “In most cases, the requested tonnages exceed the US’s annual production and import levels.”

Demand shocks are already visible. Germanium prices have spiked on reduced Chinese exports, antimony trioxide prices have nearly doubled, and the Pentagon is even evaluating acquisitions of rare earths, tungsten, bismuth, and indium. Fastmarkets’ Solomon Cefai warned that “non-China supply would not be pressured by the volumes the DLA is looking at.”

Bottom line: Washington is now openly doing what Zerohedge readers positioned for months ago — securing physical exposure to the minerals that will define the next geopolitical cycle.

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Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 09:45

Dutch Govt Suddenly Seizes Control Of China-Owned Chip Maker

As Trump cranks up (and then walks back) rhetoric towards China, the Dutch government just turned up the Beijing-baiting amplifier to '11'.

In a sudden and quite chocking move, The FT reports that the Dutch government has taken control of Chinese-owned semiconductor maker Nexperia, warning of risks to Europe’s economic security after alleging “serious governance shortcomings” at the company.

Nexperia, the European semiconductor unit of China’s Wingtech Technology Co. is a key supplier to the automotive and consumer electronics industries. The Sept. 30 court order invoked the Goods Availability Act for the first time, a piece of legislation enacted more than 70 years ago to ensure access to critical products in emergencies.

“The decision aims to prevent a situation in which the goods produced by Nexperia would become unavailable in an emergency,” the government said in a statement late on Sunday, against a backdrop of escalating trade tensions between China and the US and its allies.

The move escalates frictions between western countries and China over access to high-end technology such as advanced semiconductors and critical raw materials.

The Netherlands should “truly adhere to market principles and refrain from politicising economic and trade issues”, said spokesperson Lin Jian.

On Thursday, China placed sweeping restrictions on the exports of rare earths used in products from cars to wind turbines.

The Dutch ministry said it invoked the country’s Goods Availability Act because of “recent and acute serious governance shortcomings and actions” at Nexperia, which is based in the Netherlands and has been majority-owned by Chinese technology group Wingtech since 2019.

As one would imagine, this move was not received well by Wingtech, which called the Dutch move excessive and based on geopolitical bias.

“We strongly protest against the discriminatory treatment targeting Chinese firms,” the company said in a statement on Monday posted on Chinese social media platform WeChat, urging the Dutch government to revoke the directives.

We have initiated all legal and diplomatic channels, it said.

As Bloomberg reports, the move was actually instigated as a management coup:

Nexperia’s own executives called for a probe into the company, headquartered in Nijmegen, the Netherlands. Its Dutch chief legal officer, supported by German chief operating officer and chief financial officer filed a petition to an Amsterdam court on Oct. 1 seeking an investigation into the firm, Wingtech said.

The demands of the European executives closely aligned with directives from the Dutch government, Wingtech said, framing the move as an effort to use political pressure to deprive shareholders of their rights and overturn the company’s legitimate governance structure.

The Dutch government said Nexperia showed “recent and acute signals of serious governance shortcomings,” without elaborating. “These signals posed a threat to the continuity and safeguarding on Dutch and European soil of crucial technological knowledge and capabilities,” it said in the statement.

While Nexperia can continue regular production, the government can now block or reverse its decisions. The Hague is demanding that Wingtech suspend changes to Nexperia’s assets, business or personnel for as much as a year, a requirement that extends to its subsidiaries, the Chinese firm said in an exchange filing on Sunday.

Its shares plunged by its daily limit of 10% in Shanghai on Monday.

The court also ordered that all shares in Nexperia - except one - should be placed under custodial management by a designated individual, not yet named, for management purposes, Wingtech said.

“China always opposes overstretching the concept of national security and discriminatory moves that target companies from certain countries,” China Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said at a regular press briefing in Beijing on Monday.

“China is firmly resolved in defending its own legitimate and lawful rights and interests.”

Washington last year added Wingtech to its “entity list”, accusing the company of helping China acquire sensitive semiconductor manufacturing technology.

The designation requires US companies to seek a license to sell to them. Those license requests are often denied.

The US commerce department last month introduced new rules that extend the sales restrictions to subsidiaries of companies on the entity list, meaning that Nexperia would be subject to restrictions because of its Wingtech ownership.

We can only imagine the reaction in Washington or Brussels were this kind of action undertaken by Beijing on a US tech firm within China.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 09:15

Futures Jump After Trump Softens China Rhetoric; Gold, Silver Soar

US markets closed last week with the largest one-day loss in six months, with Asian overnight futures pointed to a sharp downdraft on Monday. HSCEI and Hang Seng futures closed down 5% (limit down) on Friday night. 
However, on Sunday Trump walked back some of his Friday comments, stating that “November 1 is an eternity” and expressing optimism that “they will be fine with China.” As a result, amid some fringe expectations of a "Black Monday" futures are solidly in the green as Trump strikes a reconciliatory tone in social media posts yesterday with futures pointing to a 50% retracement of Friday’s losses with Tech leading an ‘Everything Rally’ as the bond market is closed for the Columbus Day holiday and there are no expected data releases. As of 8:00am ET. S&P futures are 1.2% higher while Nasdaq futures gain 1.7% with Mag7 and Semis among the largest gainers pre-market. Cyclicals are seeing material outperformance to Defensives with rare earth plays seeing double-digit gains. In commodities, all 3 complexes are recovering with crude and precious metals the standouts as gold hits a new record high around $4080 and silver trades above $51.50 its highest level in decades amid a historic short squeeze in London. Cryptocurrencies bounced following the weekend’s selloff. French bonds held steady as President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a new cabinet to contain a growing political crisis. The dollar steadied and oil rose for the first time in three days. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 names are all green after Friday's rout (Nvidia +2.7%, Apple +1.4%, Microsoft +1.1%, Meta +1.4%, Tesla +1.7%, Amazon +1.3%, Alphabet +1.2%).

• US-listed rare earth and critical mineral stocks rise following strong gains among Asian peers, as fresh tensions between Beijing and Washington over China’s exports of the critical minerals fueled bets on alternative suppliers
• Critical Metals (CRML) advances 18%; MP Materials (MP) +8%, Energy Fuels (UUUU) +12%
• Blackstone Inc. (BX) rises 2% after agreeing to sell a portfolio of UK warehouses valued at $1.3 billion to Tritax Big Box REIT Plc in a deal that will hand the alternative asset manager a stake in the landlord.
• Estee Lauder (EL) climbs 4.8% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the beauty company to buy from neutral.
• Fastenal (FAST) falls 4% after the maker of sheet metal screws posted 3Q profit that slightly missed estimates.
• StubHub (STUB) gains 4% after the company received several bullish initiations following its initial public offering, with analysts expecting the company to further leverage its dominant position as it enters the lucrative primary ticketing market.
• Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) rises 4% as the media company rejected Paramount Skydance Corp.’s initial takeover approach for being too low, according to reports that cited people familiar with the matter.

In corporate news, Morgan Stanley’s asset-management business is said to have asked to redeem some money it invested in a Jefferies fund with large exposure to the trade debt of First Brands. State Street and Marex Group are expanding their outsourced trading businesses.

Stock futures are bouncing back from Friday’s dramatic selloff after Trump signaled openness to a deal with China. Treasury futures slipped, with cash trading in US bonds suspended for Columbus Day. The dash for gold persisted as the metal neared $4,080 an ounce. In Europe, French bonds held steady as President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a new cabinet to contain a growing political crisis. Silver surged to its highest level in decades amid a historic short squeeze in London. Cryptocurrencies bounced following the weekend’s selloff. The dollar steadied and oil rose for the first time in three days.

“There is a belief emerging that this is mostly negotiating tactics on both sides,” wrote Jim Reid, global head of macro research and thematic strategy at Deutsche Bank AG. “The market will begin to price in a reasonable probability of a deal once the initial shock fades.”

Still, there’s plenty to keep traders tense, with Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said that a bear-case scenario could see the S&P 500 sink as much as 11% if trade tensions between the US and China aren’t resolved before a November deadline. Deutsche Bank strategists said overall equity positioning is moderately overweight but not stretched, and markets could follow a scenario from 2021 when stocks suffered a modest pull back before resuming a strong, steady rally. 

With the VIX remaining above the key 20 level, the next few days will be a test of whether investors continue the systematic dip buying seen in recent months. The current three-year bull market has seen the S&P 500 add about $28 trillion in market value, but history suggests gains need to broaden out to be maintained.

As well as US-China developments, investors will focus on earnings season this week which kicks off with the banks tomorrow. US financials kick things off tomorrow, while AI-related updates including TSMC and Samsung in Asia and ASML in Europe will be closely watched. Analysts tracked by Bloomberg Intelligence expect profit growth of 7.4% for US stocks in the third quarter.

A Citigroup index tracking US earnings revisions - the number of analysts upgrading versus downgrading estimates - turned flat for the first time since August, while RBC strategist Lori Calvasina said the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions has been fading. If last season’s strong sentiment around earnings can’t be maintained, stocks may face “a period of digestion,” Calvasina said. High valuations also leave little patience for companies that don’t meet the bar. The S&P 500 trades at 22 times P/E, a big premium to the rest of the world.

As JPMorgan, Goldman and Citigroup prepare to report third-quarter earnings on Tuesday, options on S&P 500 members imply an average 4.7% swing after results, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s near July’s level, when the expected move was the largest for an earnings-season kickoff since 2022, using JPMorgan’s release as the starting point.

“For earnings, the focus will remain on the richly-valued areas of the market,” said Geoff Yu, senior macro strategist at BNY. “We’ve seen a more defensive posture take hold and it’s a time for validation and confirmation.”

Outside of earnings, global policymakers and finance ministers gather this week in Washington for the IMF/World Bank fall meetings after a chorus of warnings that a stock bubble focused on AI might burst before long. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.4%, trimming part of Friday’s steep decline after President Donald Trump backpedaled on his tariff threats against China, signaling a willingness to negotiate. Mining, real estate and technology shares lead gains.

In FX, the Japanese yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.6% against the greenback while the Swiss franc is not far behind. The Aussie dollar outperforms, rising 0.8%.

In rates, treasury futures came under early pressure from the reopen, partially unwinding a late bid seen in Friday’s session, after President Donald Trump’s administration signaled openness to a deal with China to quell the fresh trade tensions. Cash trading in Treasuries is closed for Columbus Day. In Europe, gilts lead a modest advance in European government bonds. French bonds held steady as President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a new cabinet to contain a growing political crisis

In commodities, spot gold rises over $50 to another record. WTI crude futures gain 2% to $60 a barrel. 

There is nothing on the calendar due to the Columbus Day holiday. 

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +1.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +1.6%
• Russell 2000 mini +1.7%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
• DAX +0.5%
• CAC 40 +0.5%
• 10-year Treasury yield unchanged at 4.03%
• VIX -2.2 points at 19.48
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1214.31
• euro -0.2% at $1.1593
• WTI crude +1.9% at $60/barrel

Top Overnight News

• All remaining Israeli hostages were released by Hamas. Israel is in the process of releasing almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. Donald Trump arrived in Israel and is to address the Knesset before traveling to Egypt for a deal-signing ceremony. The Israeli PM’s office said Benjamin Netanyahu won’t go to the Egypt summit. BBG
• The Trump administration signaled openness to a deal with China while also warning that recent export controls announced by Beijing were a major barrier to talks. BBG
• Trump said on Friday that layoffs will be Democrat-oriented and it will be a lot of people. Trump separately commented that he is using his authority to direct the defence secretary to use all available funds to get troops paid on October 15th, while he added they identified funds to do this and Secretary Hegseth will use them to pay troops.
• JD Vance told Fox News that the longer the shutdown goes on, the more significant permanent layoffs will be. Trump said he’s directing the Defense Department to use funds the administration has identified to deliver paychecks to US troops on Oct. 15. Vance responded that the ‘President is looking at all his options’ when asked if Trump is considering invoking the Insurrection Act. Furthermore, he said that the Justice Department is not acting on orders by President Trump to prosecute his political opponents. BBG 
• The Pentagon is looking to buy as much as $1 billion of critical minerals to stockpile, the FT reported. China’s latest curbs on the export of batteries may have major impact on US companies, analysts say. BBG
• China’s exports rose at the fastest pace in six months in September, beating market expectations and underscoring the sector’s continued role as a key growth driver for the world’s second-largest economy. China exports +8.3% (vs. the Street +6.6%) and imports +7.4% (vs. the Street +1.8%). WSJ
• China’s auto sales growth accelerated in Sept vs. Aug (+6.6% Y/Y vs. +4.9% in Aug). RTRS
• Trump said he’d consider arming Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles, but may first talk to Vladimir Putin in a bid to end the war. BBG
• Canada believes it is closing in on sectoral trade deals with the US, counting on Trump’s need for wins ahead of next year’s midterm elections. Melanie Joly, Canada’s minister of industry, said there was progress on landing trade deals, in particular for steel, which has been significantly hit by US tariffs. FT
• JPMorgan vowed to funnel $1.5 trillion into industries that bolster US economic security and resiliency over the next 10 years — an initiative that will invest billions of dollars in companies and hire bankers and other professionals. BBG
• Friday’s trade and tariff headlines fueled worries around a replay of April. The moves triggered heavy index-level hedging and record option volumes, even as cash equity trading remained relatively muted. S&P share volumes were only up +9% versus the 20-day moving average, while total U.S. options volume hit a new all-time high, eclipsing 100mm contracts for just the second time (April 4th was the other — when the market fell -5.97%). Friday’s felt more like a rush to protect than a rush to exit positions per Goldman
• New research suggested that the upcoming easing of capital rules could unlock USD 2.6tln in lending capacity for US banks and increase pressure on regulators elsewhere to follow suit, according to FT.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump posted on Sunday “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”
• US VP Vance called on Beijing to "choose the path of reason" amid escalating trade tensions with China and said President Trump has "far more cards" if an aggressive response is required.
• China’s Commerce Ministry said the October 9th rare earth export control measures are legitimate and designed to better safeguard world peace and regional stability, while it added that rare earth export control measures do not constitute a ban on exports, and applications that meet the requirements will be granted licences. MOFCOM said the US announcement of 100% tariffs on China represents a classic case of double standards, and since the US-China talks in Madrid, the US has continuously introduced a series of new restrictions against China. It also stated that China’s position on tariff wars has been consistent, whereby they do not want to fight but are not afraid to fight. Furthermore, China urged the US to promptly correct its erroneous practices and warned that should the US persist in its course, China will resolutely take corresponding measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests, as well as noted that the US decision to impose port fees on relevant Chinese vessels meant China “had no choice but to take countermeasures”, and that China’s decision to impose a special port fee on US-related vessels are necessary defensive actions.
• China's Foreign Ministry urges US to promptly correct its "wrong practices" in regards to the new US tariffs.
• China Customs spokesperson said US measures on shipping fees are a typical show of unilateralism and protectionism, while the spokesperson added that China’s countermeasures are necessary and are defensive actions. Furthermore, it was stated that China’s measures aim to safeguard the legitimate rights of Chinese industries and firms, while they hope the US can face up to its own 'mistakes' and that the US gets back to the correct track of communication and negotiations.
• USTR Greer said the US reached out for a call with China after the export controls announcement, but Beijing deferred. It was also reported that Greer said significant progress was made in trade talks with Cambodia that will allow more export opportunities for US farmers.
• US said it is taking action to defend America from the UN’s first global carbon tax and that the administration unequivocally rejects this proposal, while the US is considering actions against nations that support this global carbon tax on American consumers. Furthermore, the US said possible actions include probes, visa restrictions, commercial penalties, additional port fees and sanctions on officials.
• Canadian Industry Minister Joly said the government is working on a new industrial strategy that seeks to open new markets for exporters and prioritise domestic procurement in the face of US tariffs, which have hurt steel, aluminium, forestry and automotive companies. It was also reported that Canadian Trade Minister Sidhu spoke with India’s Commerce Minister Goyal.
• Switzerland and China will accelerate trade discussions on upgrading their free-trade agreement, following a meeting between Swiss Foreign Minister Cassis and Chinese counterpart Wang on Friday.
• Indian Trade Delegation is to visit to US this week, via Reuters citing sources; good progress has reportedly been made. India and US are sticking to a fall deadline for an early part of the deal. India looking to buy more energy and gas from the US.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week in the red as the region reacted to last Friday's Trump tariff threats and the subsequent Wall St sell-off, although US equity futures rebounded due to the softer tone from Trump over the weekend, while Japanese markets were shut for a holiday. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech, energy, telecoms and defensives, while gold miners are at the other end of the spectrum after prices rebounded back above the USD 4,000/oz level to touch fresh record highs. KOSPI retreated amid tech weakness, and with index heavyweight Samsung Electronics pressured after it was hit by a USD 445.5mln jury verdict for infringing wireless communication patents. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured following the flare-up of US-China trade frictions on Friday after US President Trump threatened massive tariffs on China and announced to impose a 100% additional tariff on China from November 1st, before softening his tone over the weekend, while participants digested the latest Chinese trade data, which showed both exports and imports topped forecasts.

Top Asian News

• China Customs Vice Minister said great efforts are needed to stabilise foreign trade in Q4 and that China's foreign trade showed resilience with improving structure in Q1-Q3, but the current external environment is still complex and grim with rising uncertainties.
• US FCC chair said on Friday that US ecommerce websites were removing millions of prohibited Chinese electronic items from companies like Huawei.
• Dutch government said it is intervening in Dutch chipmaker Nexperia and stated that there are serious administrative shortcomings at Nexperia, while it added that intervention means it may block or reverse company decisions and that the Co. is a subsidiary of Chinese electronics manufacturer Wingtech (600745 CH).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) opened firmer across the board to varying degrees and have traded sideways throughout the morning. Markets are currently cheering US President Trump's softer tone on China, after Friday's threat of 100% tariffs on the region. European sectors hold a strong positive bias. The cyclical sectors are all towards the top of the pile, with Tech and Consumer Products leading whilst Telecoms lag a touch.

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves is bumping up her plans for tax increases and spending cuts in the November Budget in order to create billions of pounds of additional fiscal “headroom” for the Treasury against future economic shocks, according to FT. It was separately reported that UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly eyeing up a GBP 7bln tax raid on pensions in a desperate bid to plug a black hole in the Budget, with experts warning that Reeves could push up taxes both on pension contributions paid by working people, and on withdrawals by retirees, according to the Express. Meanwhile, The Telegraph reported that Chancellor Reeves has signalled that wealthier households will be asked to “contribute more” in her Budget next month.
• ECB’s Vujcic suggested he’s comfortable with the current policy settings as he noted that “Markets predict that interest rates will stay where they are,” and stated that “We are at a good place.”
• French Presidency announced a new government on Sunday with Laurent Nunez named as Interior Minister, Roland Lescure renamed as Finance Minister and Jean-Noel Barrot renamed as Foreign Minister.
• Several people were injured in the German town of Giessen after someone fired shots in a marketplace, according to DPA citing a police spokesperson.

FX

• Overall, a firmer day for the Dollar following Friday's hefty fall from grace after US President Trump said there is no reason to meet Chinese President Xi, and threatened China with 100% tariffs. Over the weekend, US President Trump softened his tone and suggested the Xi meeting is not cancelled and “might” still happen, and added the US wants to help, not hurt China, although Trump did not withdraw his tariff threat. The Columbus Day holiday in the US means that cash bond markets are closed, although equity markets are open today. DXY resides in a current 98.83-99.21 band, and within Friday's 98.81-99.43 range.
• EUR is subdued but within relatively tight parameters with ECB’s Vujcic suggesting he’s comfortable with current policy settings as he noted that “markets predict that interest rates will stay where they are” and stated, "they are at a good place". Attention also remained on the political situation in France, where Lecornu returned as French PM and a new government was unveiled ahead of the budget deadline, with Lecornu asked to present a revised budget to parliament. ING suggests "That seems likely to fail and result in a no-confidence vote later this week, which will leave France without a government. A rise in German WPI this morning did little to move the charts.
• JPY stands as the clear laggard, closely followed by the CHF, as the haven FX unwind some of the recent haven flows from Friday and amid the Japanese holiday closure overnight. USD/JPY gapped higher overnight after ending Friday's session towards the bottom of a 151.10-153.27 range, with today between 151.72-152.37 parameters.
• Cable sees mild losses despite a lack of pertinent catalysts this morning, but as the DXY clambers off worst levels, while press reports over the weekend noted that UK Chancellor Reeves is eyeing up a GBP 7bln tax raid on pensions to plug a black hole in the Budget. The pair trades in a 1.3329-1.3366 range at the time of writing.
• Antipodeans are the clear outperformers this morning amid the partial unwind of Friday's fall, with the AUD surpassing peers and being aided by a boost in base metals and gold also holding firm despite a recovery in the dollar and in spite of the unwind of risk premium across other havens, albeit amid the ongoing US government shutdown.

Fixed Income

• A softer start to the week for USTs after the Trump-induced jump on Friday. To recap, USTs got to a 113-09 peak on Friday after escalating trade tensions between the US and China. Since, the US President has been a little softer in his language over the weekend and while China has commented, it has not announced a tit-for-tat or escalatory response just yet. Points that have taken some of the tension out of the situation allowing the risk tone to recover to a degree. As such, USTs are down to a 112-30 trough with losses of 6+ ticks at most, though markedly clear of the 112-16+ base from Friday. For the US today is a quieter than usual day owing to Columbus Day, while it is not a formal market holiday cash trade remains closed and was also shut overnight due to the absence of Japan. Nonetheless, Fed’s Paulson (2026) is scheduled and expected to provide a text and partake in a Q&A; we haven’t really heard from Paulson since she replaced Harker at the Philadelphia Fed at end-June.
• OATs underperform vs peers. In focus as re-appointed PM Lecornu addresses his newly formed cabinet before speaking to parliament at some point today. As a reminder, the current schedule means that a draft 2026 budget of some form needs to be presented today in order to allow discussion/negotiation and passage before year end.
• Bunds were initially lower, tracking USTs, but are now a touch firmer. Specifics for Germany are primarily on the fiscal front. Handelsblatt reports that the Finance Ministry is considering exempting from the debt brake the interest payments on loans for defence spending. An exemption that would provide a “double-digit billion amount” of leeway in the coming years. No discernible move in Bunds to the release. Bunds in a 129.13 to 129.34 band which is entirely within Friday’s 128.70 to 129.41 parameter.
• Gilts opened lower by a handful of ticks, directionally in-fitting with peers but with magnitudes a little more contained. Since, the benchmark has been as low as 91.01, posting losses of 15 ticks at most. However, Gilts have reverted back towards opening levels of 91.12 in a 91.01-26 band. Multiple outlets report that the Chancellor is looking at giving herself more than the GBP 9.9bln of headroom she had from her first budget. To do this, she is said to be considering a pension raid, among other measures to target wealthier households, according to the Express/Telegraph.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks climb as markets digest the softening tone from US President Trump following increased trade tensions between China and US, where Trump threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on China. After the largest selloff on Friday since late June, WTI and Brent have bounced and peaked shy of USD 60/bbl and USD 64/bbl respectively. Benchmarks currently oscillating in a tight c. USD 0.40/bbl range.
• Precious metals continue to break ATHs, with spot XAU peaking at USD 4078/oz during the APAC session and currently trading near its peak. Shrinking stockpiles of silver in London, in addition to the rising debt concerns and debasement from the dollar, have helped reinforce the rally in XAG. It has been calculated that “free float” silver has dropped to just 200mln ounces, down 75% from a high of over 850mln ounces in mid-2019. Further upside is still the theme in precious metals, with BofA lifting XAU and XAG forecasts to USD 5k/oz and USD 65/oz respectively.
• Base metals rebound as US President Trump plays down tariff scare. 3M LME Copper gapped higher and peaked at USD 10.67k/t, before finding support at USD 10.5k/t and currently oscillating between parameters formed early this session.
• Iraq set November Basrah medium crude Official Selling Price to Asia at plus USD 0.85/bbl vs Oman/Dubai and set the OSP to Europe at minus USD 2.80/bbl vs Dated Brent, while it set the OSP to North and South America at minus USD 1.40/bbl vs ASCI, according to SOMO.
• Ahead of LME Week (Oct 13th), Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to remain in a USD 10,000-11,000/t price range in 2026/2027, but sees downside to aluminium prices, while nickel is likely to remain in oversupply. Elsewhere, the desk sees the most likely medium-term path for silver prices as one of further gains, as Fed cuts attract inflows.
• BofA lifts gold price forecasts after spot gold hit their USD 4,000/oz forecast; says a 14% increase of investment demand – similar to what was seen this year – could lift gold to USD 5,000/oz, a 28% demand increase could see a rally to USD 6,000/oz. Still expect further upside in 2026: Gold potentially rising to USD 5,000/oz (USD 4,400 average). Silver potentially rising to USD 65/oz (USD 56.25/oz average). Downside risks to watch: US mid-term election outcomes impacting policy implementation. Possible Fed hawkish pivot if data improves. Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs.
• Saudi Aramco CEO says oil demand is resilient and there is large growth potential. Maximum sustained production capacity is 12mln BPD, can be done at no additional cost for one year Sees oil demand growing by 1.1-1.3mln BPD in 2025, and then 1.2-1.4mln BPD in 2026.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Egypt will host an international summit on Monday regarding the agreement to end the war in Gaza which will be attended by more than 20 leaders, including US President Trump. It was also reported that UK PM Starmer will travel to Egypt to attend the signing ceremony of the Gaza peace plan, while French President Macron and European Council President Costa will also attend the peace summit in Egypt on Monday.
• Israeli government spokesperson said the release of hostages will begin early Monday morning and it expects all 20 living hostages to be released together at one time, while Palestinian prisoners will be released once all hostages set to be released on Monday are received.
• Israeli army radio announced that the first 6 hostages are to be released in Gaza City, while it was reported that Hamas published the names of the 20 hostages to be released.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister Araqchi said the possibility of Iran joining the Abraham Accords is US President Trump’s wishful thinking and Iran will never recognise an ‘occupier regime, which has committed genocide and killed children’, while he added that Tehran sees no reason for nuclear talks with European powers. Furthermore, he noted that Tehran and Washington are exchanging messages through mediators and that Tehran welcomes a potential ‘fair and balanced’ US nuclear proposal, but stated they have not received any request for nuclear negotiations from any country so far.
• All living hostages have now been released by Hamas, according to reports citing Kann News.
• US President Trump says Hamas will comply with plans to disarm; the war is over.

Geopoltics: Ukraine

• US President Trump said he may tell Russian President Putin that he may send Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine if the war is not settled.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he had a good, productive conversation with US President Trump and discussed strengthening air defence, while he is grateful for US readiness to support. Zelensky separately commented that they would only use Tomahawk missiles to pursue military goals, not to attack civilians in Russia, although he also noted that Trump has not yet made a decision on supplying Tomahawks to Ukraine and that he is waiting for Trump’s decision.
• Ukrainian drone struck Russia’s Bashneft oil refinery in Ufa.
• Russian Defence Ministry said Russian troops hit fuel and energy infrastructure facilities of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex, while it reported on Sunday morning that Russia shot down 72 Ukrainian drones over the previous day.
• UK Ministry of Defence said two Royal Air Force aircraft flew a 12-hour mission on Thursday with the US and NATO as they patrolled the border of Russia.

Geopoltics: Other

• Pakistan’s military said 22 Pakistani soldiers were killed and more than 200 died on the Afghan side in border clashes. Furthermore, Pakistan Foreign Minister said they expect the Taliban government to take concrete measures against terrorist elements and perpetrators that wish to derail Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, while Pakistan will take all possible measures to defend its own territory, sovereignty and people.
• Afghan Taliban Foreign Minister said Qatar and Saudi Arabia intervened for mediation after Saturday night firing between Afghanistan and Pakistan, while the official added that they have other ways to handle the situation if Pakistan does not want to engage in dialogue.
• Philippines said a government vessel was rammed by a Chinese ship at sea, while China’s Coast Guard said two Philippine government vessels ‘illegally entered’ waters near Sandy Cay without authorisation, which resulted in a collision, for which the Philippine side bears full responsibility. Furthermore, the Chinese Coast Guard stated that it lawfully took control measures against Philippine vessels and resolutely expelled them.
• North Korean Leader Kim held talks with Russia’s Medvedev and said the military must evolve to destroy all threats, while Kim said the nation’s military heroism will not only be seen in the defence of North Korea but also in outposts of socialist construction. Furthermore, Kim told Medvedev that he hopes to continue to strengthen cooperation between the two countries and closely engage in diverse exchanges and contacts to achieve common goals, according to KCNA.
• China and North Korea pledged to develop strategic communication and will strengthen strategic cooperation.

US Event Calendar

• 12:55 pm: Fed’s Paulson Speaks at NABE

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It's hard to know where to start this morning with a continued US shutdown seemingly the least of our concerns these days. The plates currently spinning in markets are 1) the sudden resumption of trade hostilities between the US and China on Friday; 2) the reappointment of Lecornu as French Prime Minister late on Friday but with no obvious signs that he'll find life any easier than what promoted him to resign a week before; 3) the collapse of the governing coalition in Japan on Friday just a week after Takaichi was elected as LDP leader which will make radical policymaking more challenging and even threaten her nomination as PM; 4) The US intervening to prop up the Argentinian Peso ahead of domestic mid-term elections (President Milei is an ally of Trump) in less than 2 weeks; 5) the London Silver market seeing one of the biggest short squeezes in history; 6) a peace deal with Hamas and Israel which should see the remaining hostages released today after two years of captivity; 7) signs of weakness in US credit, after the First Brands collapse a couple of weeks back, and bubbling private credit fears, post a long period of being bullet proof; and 8) a large fall in Crypto late on Friday, including a $10,000 fall in bitcoin in just a few hours. There’s probably more but these are the main themes in global markets.

After Friday’s sell-off where the S&P 500 (-2.71%) fell the most since April 10th, just as US Treasuries were under their peak post Liberation Day stress, Asian markets are also seeing a weak session this morning. US futures are bouncing though on hopes that US and China can negotiate through their disagreements. Throughout the region, the Hang Seng Tech index (-4.54%) is at the forefront of losses, while the Hang Seng index is also sinking (-3.49%), primarily influenced by substantial declines in major Chinese internet and technology companies. In addition, the CSI (-1.76%) and the Shanghai Composite (-1.30%) are also lower. Elsewhere Japan is shut for a public holiday, while the KOSPI (-1.62%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.99%) are also weak. S&P 500 (+1.22%) and NASDAQ (+1.65%) futures are rebounding strongly as the US leadership rhetoric over the weekend showed willingness to negotiate.

When Trump returned to power, I was convinced it would mark the beginning of a much weaker US-China relationship, with a real risk of significant decoupling. Yet, over the past few months, US trade tensions have often seemed more focused on traditional allies, while the relationship with China appeared to be improving, albeit after some aggressive tariff threats. But Friday’s developments were a reminder of the underlying tension that still exists.

I suspect the recent improvement was driven more by US fears of empty shelves if the punitive tariffs threatened post-Liberation Day were actually implemented. Perhaps the US needed time to adjust. Since then, the mood music has been notably more positive, and it’s still very possible, maybe even likely, that both sides are simply trying to strengthen their near-term negotiating positions. However, these tensions will probably be a recurring theme in the years ahead as both sides compete on the global stage for dominance.

China currently holds considerable leverage in the rare earths market and seems keen to use it to secure a better deal—particularly in the chip sector, where the US has imposed export controls. So, this battle is shaping up as rare earths versus AI chips.

Interestingly this morning's data show that China is diversifying their exports. While exports to the US decreased by -27.0% year-on-year in September, marking the sixth consecutive month of double-digit declines, growth in its global exports reached a six-month high of +8.3% (compared to +6.6% expected), significantly surpassing the +4.4% year-on-year increase recorded in August. Imports rose by +7.4% in September, exceeding the forecast of +1.8%, resulting in a surplus of $90.5 billion.

It’s worth remembering that Trump and Xi were expected to meet on the sidelines of the APEC 2025 summit in South Korea on October 31st–November 1st. Also note that the suspension of higher US tariffs on Chinese goods expires on November 10th. There’s still plenty of time for negotiations, and I suspect the market will begin to price in a reasonable probability of a deal once the initial shock fades. For what its worth, Polymarket has the probabilities of the two Presidents meeting by October 31st at 62% this morning, down from a peak of 88% last week but up from around 35% at the lows on Friday night. So there is a belief emerging that this is mostly negotiating tactics on both sides. Trump posted on social media yesterday “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”. Meanwhile JD Vance also opened the door to negotiations yesterday. We will see.  

Onto France, where the motto seems to be “if at first you don’t succeed, try, try again.” Whether this time will be any different is a moot point, but with Lecornu reappointed as PM late last week, they will be having another go at passing a budget and forming a government early this week. Polymarket currently shows a 30% probability that fresh elections will be called before the end of October, and a 63% chance by year-end. There’s also a 20% chance of elections being announced by this Friday.  

In terms of key events this week, the US CPI won't happen as expected on Wednesday, but we now know it will be released on the 24th October. The special treatment during a shutdown is due to the fact that September’s CPI is a crucial input into the government’s calculation of the “cost of living adjustment” (COLA) that is applied each year to several categories of federal outlays. So it’s likely that this is a one-off data wise. The main highlights elsewhere start today with Columbus Day in the US, with bond markets closed but equity markets open. The Annual World Bank and IMF meetings also start today and run through into Saturday. They’ll be plenty to discuss. Tomorrow sees UK employment numbers, the German ZEW, Fed Chair Powell speaking, and the start of US earnings season (more below). Wednesday sees Chinese inflation, Eurozone Industrial Production, and the Fed Beige book and Thursday sees the US NAHB index. There are lots of Central Bankers speakers which you can see in the day-by-day calendar at the end as usual.

As briefly touched upon above, US banks will kick off the Q3 earnings season tomorrow with notable companies reporting including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America will follow on Wednesday. In tech, the spotlight will be on semiconductor firms ASML (Wednesday) and TSMC (Thursday). Other earnings highlights this week include Samsung, Johnson & Johnson and Blackrock.

Recapping last week now and all was relatively quiet until the US/China trade tensions flared up late on Friday. The S&P 500 ended the week down -2.43% (-2.71% Friday) with Tech stocks underperforming significantly on Friday, as the NASDAQ was down -3.56% (-2.53% on the week), and the Magnificent 7 down -3.68% (-2.69% on the week). This was despite news that OpenAI had agreed to purchase tens of billions of dollars of chips from AMD, which sent its shares up +30.5% last week (-7.7% Friday). It was the worst week for the NASDAQ since mid-April, and the worst since mid-May for the S&P 500. The VIX index of volatility rose to 21.7pts (+5.2pts Friday, +5.0pts on the week), which was the highest level since late-June.

European indices were closed before the final leg of Friday’s sell-off, so they did out-perform. France led losses though with a weekly decline of -2.05% (-1.54% Friday). Franco-German 10-year spreads closed the week +2.4bp wider (+1.3bps Friday) at 83.4bps. The Stoxx 600 was down -1.10% (-1.25% Friday), the FTSE 100 -0.67% (-0.86% Friday), and the DAX -0.56% (-1.50% Friday).

In fixed income, US treasury yields saw a significant rally on Friday with 2yr yields ending the week -7.4bps lower (-9.1bps Friday) at 3.50%, 10yr yields were down -8.7bps ( -10.6bps Friday) to 4.03%, and 30yr Treasuries were down -9.3bps (-10.3bps Friday) to 4.62%. 10yr bund yields rallied -5.4bps (-5.9bps Friday) on the week and BTPs were down -5.0bps (-4.7bps Friday). 

Credit markets also saw their biggest wobble since Liberation Day. USD IG spreads were 6bps wider on the week (+4bps Friday), while USD HY spreads were +36bps wider on the week (+22bps Friday). That is the largest weekly backup for both markets since the first week of April, when the initial tariffs were announced. This also comes as there have been growing fears of stress in private credit markets and Business Development Companies, whose stock prices fell sharply even prior to Friday’s selloff. EUR credit markets were not immune to this stress as EUR IG spreads were +4bps wider on the week (+3bps Friday) and EUR HY spreads gapped +37bps wider (+15bps Friday).

In commodities, gold continued its climb to break through $4,000/oz last week and finished the week up +3.38% (+1.03% Friday) at $4,018/oz. Brent crude declined -2.79% (-3.82% Friday) to $62.73/bbl, as the first phase of the Israel-Hamas truce began on Friday day, with thousands of Palestinians already moving back north and the Israeli army leaving the enclave.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 08:41

Macron Unveils New French Cabinet, Rejects Resignation Calls Amid Political Crisis

President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a new cabinet on Sunday after reappointing Sébastien Lecornu as prime minister, an urgent maneuver to stabilize what has become one of France's worst political crises in decades. As one UBS analyst quipped to clients earlier on Monday, "No one had Lecornu 2.0 on their bingo cards." Also, Macron dismissed mounting calls for his resignation amid a plunge in sentiment polls, as the embattled globalist president has burned through five prime ministers in less than two years. 

Lecornu, who resigned at the start of last week before being reinstated Friday, faces the daunting task of holding Macron's weakened centrist alliance together as parliament remains deeply divided. The new cabinet will meet on Tuesday, when Lecornu is expected to present a new budget proposal. 

Macron also reappointed key ministers, including Roland Lescure (Finance), Amélie de Montchalin (Budget), and Jean-Noël Barrot (Foreign Affairs). Laurent Nuñez replaced Bruno Retailleau as Interior Minister after Retailleau's Republicans withdrew support for the government.

Here's commentary on the ongoing political storm in France from UBS analyst Simon Penn:

Sébastien Lecornu is back as French Prime Minister. After four days away, he was reappointed by President Macron late on Friday night to have another go. It's unlikely anyone had that among their expected outcomes. Following his reappointment, Lecornu said his priority was to get back to trying to repair the French public finances. Lecornu is now expected to name a new cabinet soon. He also needs to propose a new budget on Monday, if legislation is to be adopted by year-end. Lecornu said he had accepted President Macron's offer "out of duty". Over the weekend, he has been trying to rebuild the cabinet, one in which all concerned will stay.

Late Sunday, Lecornu wrote on X, "A mission government is appointed to provide a budget for France before the end of the year." 

Un gouvernement de mission est nommé pour donner un budget à la France avant la fin de l’année.

Je remercie les femmes et les hommes qui s'engagent dans ce gouvernement en toute liberté au-delà des intérêts personnels et partisans.

Une seule chose compte : l’intérêt du pays.

— Sébastien Lecornu (@SebLecornu) October 12, 2025

However, Marine Le Pen's National Rally and the far-left have already pledged to back no-confidence votes this week, meaning Lecornu must rely on abstentions from the Socialists and Republicans to survive. 

The Socialist Party has demanded that Macron suspend pension reform that raised the retirement age, new taxes on the wealthy, and loosen fiscal rules for more deficit spending. Macron's centrist and center-right allies oppose such moves but remain divided over whether to back Lecornu's government.

Earlier today, Macron arrived in Egypt to attend a gathering of world leaders aimed at ending the war in Gaza. He remained defiant and blamed political rivals for destabilizing France and said he had no plans to resign before his second and final term ends in 2027.

"I ensure continuity and stability, and I will continue to do so," Macron told reporters, urging people not to forget that the mandate given to the president means "to serve, to serve, and to serve."

Despite the worst political turmoil in decades, French bonds and equities were flat on Monday, with CAC 40 futures tracking broader European gains. 

UBS analyst Nicola Brion told clients, "France's President Macron reappointed Lecornu as PM and presented the new cabinet. The CAC is up 60bp, mostly led by luxury while French banks trade broadly flat." 

Related:

• Rise Of The Conservatives- "The EU's Worst Nightmare Has Never Looked So Real"

• Market Patience Won't Last Long Without A Deal In France

. . . 

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 08:05

Wave Of Antifa Terror Continues In Germany: Hamburg AfD Politicians' Home Addresses Doxxed, State Security Services Investigate

Via Remix News,

The far-left extremist portal “Indymedia,” associated with Antifa, was used to target three politicians of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Hamburg, including the publishing of their home addresses and calls to take action against the “fascists.” The information was published both on the platform but also on stickers, which were put up all over the neighborhoods where the three politicians live.

As a result, a state investigation has been launched.

Two AfD city council members were targeted, as well as a district council member, with the stickers distributed in the neighborhoods of all three individuals. The stickers featured the address and photos of all three politicians, along with a message that read: “Attention, AfD fascists in your neighborhood.” 

The same information was published on the Indymedia website, which is well-known for publishing manifestos and calls to action for Antifa terror groups. Recently, a left-wing group took responsibility on the platform for a series of attacks on Berlin’s electrical grid, which resulted in the longest-running blackout in Berlin’s history since the end of the Cold War.

Indymedia also published the message that the “three AfD politicians in Hamburg have been outed.” The message read that the AfD politicians had been “visited” in their neighborhoods. The post also included a message: “We greet all Antifa members in hiding and in prison! Lots of strength and love to the antifascist Maja! We stand together! Free ALL Antifas! Fight Fascism!”

“Maja” refers to the alleged left-wing trans person currently incarcerated in Hungary and standing trial for a wave of vicious attacks in Budapest. Hungarian authorities state that Maja was involved in these serious assaults, which were committed by the Antifa terror group known as the Hammer Gang.

Dirk Nockemann, the Hamburg AfD parliamentary group leader, condemned the action as “attempts at intimidation” and said they should be “condemned in the strongest possible terms.” Nockemann also called on left-wing parties in the Hamburg Parliament to condemn the terrorizing of political opponents.

“Antifa means terror. It is a left-wing terrorist and anti-democratic group that, like no other, stands for public denunciation and violence against dissidents,” wrote Nockermann. He criticized political leaders who have often associated themselves with Antifa. The previous interior minister, Nancy Faeser, even wrote for Antifa Magazine shortly before she was installed in her position.

AfD politicians have long been targeted in attacks, including arson attacks and assaults. Bernd Baumann, parliamentary director of the AfD parliamentary group in the Bundestag, spoke to WELT TV about his own experiences after being named by Antifa via “Indymedia.” Baumann described the constant threat, saying, “I’m constantly being attacked on my house. My wife is really scared.” To feel safe, he said he installed “steel doors and got a dog so his wife could sleep again.”

Baumann also recounted an incident where his tenant’s car was burned in front of his house. He detailed the immediate online claim of responsibility: “And the next morning, Antifa wrote on Indymedia that we had once again burned an expensive limousine in front of Bernd Baumann’s house.” The resulting damages and fear meant he “could no longer rent the house.”

In Hamburg itself, AfD politicians have already been brutally assaulted, including in an incident from 2023.

Notably, the West has been plagued with a wave of extremist left-wing violence as of late, with numerous assassination attempts against Donald Trump, along with the recent murder of Charlie Kirk, which was allegedly committed by Antifa and trans activist Tyler Robinson. As a result, Antifa has been declared to be a domestic terror threat in the United States by Donald Trump.

Other European leaders have called for similar action against Antifa. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who was nearly killed last year in an assassination attempt, is one of the European leaders attempting to highlight the risks coming from left-wing terrorists.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 03:30

Where Beer Prices Have Risen (And Fallen) The Most Since 2020

In Boston, the price of beer has shot up 43% since 2020, the fastest jump in America.

Not only that, beer inflation in Boston is the eighth-highest worldwide, driven by higher ingredient and materials costs.

This trend has been seen in many big cities globally, surpassing the rate of inflation.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows the cities with the steepest beer price increases and decreases in the last five years, based on data from Deutsche Bank.

Top 10 Biggest Beer Price Increases

Below, we show cities with the highest beer price inflation. Figures represent the nominal change in an average price of a 0.5L bottle of domestic beer since 2020.

In Argentina’s capital, beer has jumped an eye-watering 89% since 2020, costing $2.23 on average in 2025.

Meanwhile, European cities account for six of the 10 largest price increases, with Birmingham, UK leading at a 63% surge. Warsaw, Poland follows closely with a 59% jump, fueled by higher excise taxes and persistent inflation.

Mexico City has also faced mounting price pressures. In 2022, Grupo Modelo raised prices after global beer production costs spiked by an average of 62% over the prior two years. Added to this, rising tourism and an influx of digital nomads have further driven prices upward.

Top 10 Biggest Beer Price Declines

In contrast, here are the cities with the largest drop in beer prices:

Beer prices have sunk the most in Dubai (-37%) amid easing liquor laws, which previously put a 30% tax on alcohol sales.

In Tokyo, beer has also become increasingly affordable as the yen stands at 30-year lows to the U.S. dollar and several other major currencies. As a result, prices are now 30% cheaper than in 2020, where domestic beer can cost around $2.14.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the top countries by beer consumption in the world.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 02:45

UK Digital ID: The BritCard Bait And Switch

Authored by Iain Davis via Off-Guardian.org,

In my previous article I suggested that the UK’s proposed “mandatory” digital ID, called the BritCard, was a bait and switch psyop. I posited that the arguments presented by Keir Starmer’s purported Labour government, to supposedly justify the BritCard rollout, coupled with the timing of the announcement, the apparent inability to understand public opinion, and the lack of necessity for the BritCard, indicated that there was something amiss with the so-called government’s BritCard proposition.

It seems to me that the purpose of the BritCard gambit is to frame the Overton Window for the public debate about digital ID in the UK.

People can accept or reject it, imagining the BritCard represents the totality of digital ID infrastructure. If the population rejects the BritCard they may well do so under the misapprehension they have defeated digital ID in the UK.

Subsequent developments have strengthened my view.

Digital ID is a global policy initiative that governments around the world, including the British government, are following, not leading.

It is the United Nation’s (UN’s) Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 16.9 which promises to “by 2030, provide legal identity for all, including birth registration.”

Even before the ink was officially dry on SDG 16.9, the ID2020 group, tasked with meeting the “identity” sustainability target, outlined what achieving SDG 16.9 would mean in practical terms:

[C]reate technology-driven public-private partnerships to achieve the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goal of providing legal identity for everyone on the planet.

ID2020 further clarified the global policy objective:

By 2030, enabling access to digital identity for every person on the planet.

The objective of SDG 16.9 is to force not just approved “legal identity” but digital ID on every human being on earth. To this end, the UN has already created a nascent global digital ID database called ID4D. The ID4D Global Dataset aim to capture the data of “all people aged 0 and above.”

Run by the World Bank Group—a UN specialised agency—ID4D informs us:

The World Bank Group’s Identification for Development (ID4D) Initiative harnesses global and cross-sectoral knowledge, World Bank financing instruments, and partnerships to help countries realize the transformational potential of identification (ID) systems. [. . .] The aim is to enable all people to exercise their rights and access better services and economic opportunities in line with the Sustainable Development Goals.

At first reading this might not seem so bad. Therefore, it is very important to be clear about what it implies.

Your access to all “services” and all “economic opportunities” will be dependent upon you possessing the requisite digital ID; the entire economy—all services and all economic activity—must comply with “Sustainable Development Goals.” This means everything will be ordered by the global governance system, not by national governments. Finally, “partnership” means public-private partnerships.

If you think I may have put an unwarranted pejorative spin on the ID4D statement consider that the UN’s SDG 16.9 makes no mention of “digital ID,” only “legal identity.” Yet, ID2020, the UN’s own body responsible for implementing SDG 16.9, had already committed to the global rollout of digital ID before the UN officially announced its global governance ID agenda.

The UN “regime” is not an honourable or trustworthy organisation and we must interpret its goals and public statements carefully to understand the actual implications. With far less fanfare, and allowing for a suitable cooling-off period, in 2023, the UN finally came out of the closet and simply said it wanted “Digital IDs linked with bank or mobile money accounts.”

The global public-private partnership (G3P)—essentially a nexus between central banks, international policy think tanks, the UN, multinational corporations, NGO’s and other “philanthropic” organisations, and governments—is propelling the global rollout of digital ID. ID4D “partners” include the Gates Foundation, the Omidyar Network, and the World Economic Forum (WEF) that represents “leading global companies” seeking to “shape the future.”

Leading WEF Partners include US data and AI giant Palantir. The WEF runs a number of global research “Centres” and Palantir is a key partner in five of them including the Centres for Cybersecurity and for the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

The UN began as a public-private partnership. In 1998, having undergone a “quiet revolution,” it formally shifted away from being an intergovernmental organisation to become a public-private global governance regime that promotes “business-friendly legislation.”

 

Like the UN ID4D project, the central bank of central banks—the Bank for International Settlements (BIS)—envisages a “unified ledger” that will oversee every transaction on earth. The power to control all commerce extends to all business to business (B2B) transactions. The Bank of England and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are among the central banks working on the associated BIS-led Project Agora:

The project aims to test the desirability, feasibility and viability of a multi-currency unified ledger for wholesale cross-border payments. [. . .] The project is a public-private collaboration that seeks to use new technology to improve the correspondent banking model.

To appreciate what this new global monetary system is designed to achieve we need to understand “tokenization.” McKinsey explains:

Tokenization is the process of creating a digital representation of a real thing. [. . .] [T]okenization is a digitization process to make assets more accessible, [. . .] tokenization is used for cybersecurity and to obfuscate the identity of the payment itself, essentially to prevent fraud. [. . .] [T]okenized financial assets are moving from pilot to at-scale development. McKinsey analysis indicates that tokenized market capitalization could reach around $2 trillion by 2030 (excluding cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and stablecoins like Tether). [. . .] Larry Fink, the chairman and CEO of BlackRock, said in January 2024: “We believe the next step going forward will be the tokenization of financial assets, and that means every stock, every bond … will be on one general ledger.”

The BIS has been planning to seize the opportunity presented by tokenisation operating on a “one general” or a unified ledger for some time:

A new type of financial market infrastructure – a unified ledger – could capture the full benefits of tokenisation by combining central bank money, tokenised deposits and tokenised assets on a programmable platform

Digital ID is inextricably linked to “onboarding”—accessing and using—programmable digital currencies (PDCs) such as stablecoins and central bank digital currency (CBDC). The push to get us to adopt programmable digital currency is also a public-private global project. The BIS spells out why digital ID is a prerequisite for using programmable digital currency:

Identification at some level is [. . .] central in the design of CBDCs. This calls for a CBDC that is account-based and ultimately tied to a digital identity. [. . .] A digital identity scheme, which could combine information from a variety of sources [. . .] will thus play an important role in such an account based design. By drawing on information from national registries and from other public and private sources, such as education certificates, tax and benefits records, property registries etc, a digital ID serves to establish individual identities online. [. . .] [S]ystems in which the private and official sector develop a common governance framework and strive for interoperability between their services, [. . .] represent the furthest-reaching model. These allow administrative databases to be linked up, further enhancing the functionality and usefulness of digital ID.

The BIS is quite clear about the interoperable model that will “allow administrative databases to be linked up.” In such a model your biometric—biological identifier—digital ID (e-ID) will be constructed by your use of the “interoperable” system framework.

Your e-ID will provide both public and private organisations access to your data. For example, as long as they have the required access permission, approved private finance “partners” can check your identity attributes, such as your qualifications, tax records, history of any welfare payments you may have received, and assess the value of any of your other e-ID attributes, such as property or other assets you might own. This can help them decide if they will offer you credit, how much interest to charge you, whether to offer you insurance or not, and at what price, etc.

In addition, every time you make a transaction with your PDC—by virtue of it being directly connected to your e-ID—public and private parties with sufficient access permissions to the application programmable interface (API) layer will be able to use your e-ID attributes to make decisions about processing payments, in real time, such as allowing or disallowing your transactions.

The BIS illuminates:

APIs ensure the secure exchange of data and instructions between parties in digital interactions. [. . .] Crucially, APIs can be set up to transmit only data relevant to a specific transaction. [. . .] An example is “open banking”, which allows third-party financial service providers to access transaction and other financial data from traditional financial institutions through APIs. For example, a fintech [Financial Technology company] could use banks’ transaction data to assess credit risk and offer a loan at lower, more transparent rates than those offered by traditional financial institutions. [. . .] Payment APIs may offer software that allows organisations to create interoperable digital payment services to connect customers, merchants, banks and other financial providers. [. . .] [T]he recipient’s bank (or financial services provider) needs to agree to the transaction on the customer’s behalf. During this [. . .] step, it is verified that the transaction satisfies rules and regulations. [. . .] Once there is agreement, in [the next] step funds are transferred and made available to the recipient immediately.

Such a system could, and it may offer all kinds of cost savings and other benefits. But behavioural and, ultimately, social and economic control, is what the likes of the UN, the BIS, and their partners desire. Speaking in October 2020, BIS General Manager Agustín Carstens explained why PDCs are nothing like any form of money we are currently familiar with:

The key difference with the CBDC is the central bank will have absolute control on the rules and regulations that will determine the use of that expression of central bank liability, and also we will have the technology to enforce that.

Again, “interoperability,” enabling universally recognised e-ID to be assigned to all transactions, using internationally accepted PDCs, allows API’s to precisely control any transaction, anywhere, between any parties, by using digital agreements, often called “smart contracts.” The BIS collaborated on Operation Rosalind with the Bank of England to develop the smart contract functionality we will all be subjected to in the UK once we accept e-ID and, as planned, PDCs.

Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT)—most likely blockchain—will record, oversee and control all digital transactions on a “unified ledger.” The Operation Rosalind social engineers concluded:

Ledger API layer: This layer translated smart contracts into API calls and transformed API requests into a format understood by, and actionable for, the central bank ledger. [. . .] This could support many use cases, such as third-party payment initiation, external smart contract applications and budgeting applications.

Smart contracts on the API layer could be used to automatically initiate “third party payment” such as taking taxes, fines, private penalty charges, utility payments, and so on, directly from your “digital wallet.” Using smart contracts, your e-ID assigned PDC can be programmed, in real time, to control what you buy, from whom, where and when.

Bo Li, the former Deputy Governor of the People’s Bank of China, and the current Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), speaking at the Central Bank Digital Currencies for Financial Inclusion: Risks and Rewards symposium, explained the power that programmable digital currency provides to those with the approved ledger permissions:

CBDC can allow government agencies and private sector players to program [CBDC] to create smart-contracts, to allow targeted policy functions. For example[,] welfare payments [. . .], consumption coupons, [. . .] food stamps. By programming, CBDC money can be precisely targeted [to] what kind of [things] people can own, and what kind of use [for which] this money can be utilised. For example, [. . .] for food.

Whatever falsehoods the government or the media might tell you about digital ID, the fact is digital ID is a global governance policy initiative and the objective is to control our behavior and our lives. Digital ID (e-ID) is the keystone for a global system of oppression and once we have accepted e-ID the rollout of a global network of programmable digital currencies (PDCs) will immediately follow.

Whether we accept BritCard or not, the UK government has already adopted what the BIS called “the furthest reaching model” of e-ID. The system is managed by the UK government’s Office for Digital Identity Attributes. The “Office” has registered the current slew of private companies that have won bids to provide “digital ID and attribute services” to all of us in the UK. Notable e-ID and attribute service providers include Deloitte (Go Verify) and Mastercard.

In order to become a “trustworthy digital verification service (DVS),” global corporations like Deloitte and Mastercard must adhere to the UK Digital Identity and Attributes Trust Framework. The framework sets the “technical and operating standards for use across the UK’s economy [that] will help to enable international and domestic interoperability.” International interoperability will ensure all the data harvested from the UK population is available to the architects of global governance. Possibly via the ID4D or the BIS unified ledger, for example.

In order to ensure both domestic and international interoperability between all e-ID products and services, the DVS-provider must use the approved “data schema.” Section 14 of the framework provides all the technical information-exchange standards that will enable interoperability.

The interoperability standards allow all the data harvested from you to be stored and transmitted “in a machine-readable format” that is “interoperable with other certified services and relying parties” both “in the UK and internationally.” This means, for instance, that data seized from your use of your digital biometric driving licence, or passport, can be connected to the separate “trustworthy” DVS provided by, for example, the issuer of your bank card.

This interoperable system means that a single, government issued BritCard is completely unnecessary and achieves nothing whatsoever. The e-ID framework that the government has been developing for years, and already has in place, does not need and does not benefit from BritCard.

Yet, when more than 2.8 million people apparently signed a government petition opposing Britcard, in response, the government said:

We will introduce a digital ID within this Parliament. [. . .] [T]he new digital ID will build on GOV.UK One Login and the GOV.UK Wallet to drive the transformation of public services. Over time, this system will allow people to access government services – such as benefits or tax records – without needing to remember multiple logins or provide physical documents.

Beyond the demonstrable reality that the government doesn’t care what we think, this statement is gibberish. The GOV.UK One Login system was designed around the interoperable UK Digital Identity and Attributes Trust Framework. Farcically, One Login’s hopeless cybersecurity failings led the government to revoke the “framework” accreditation for its own service in May of this year. The government then handed multi-million pound contracts to PA Consulting and the US Tech Giant Accenture to try and fix all the One Login problems and hopefully regain its own interoperable framework accreditation.

BritCard is not framework compliant and is not listed as a DVS-provider. The BritCard concept has not been put out for either market or public consultation. BritCard does not exist in any meaningful sense and is nothing but a PR stunt. The only question is what is the purpose of the stunt. There are some telling clues.

Palantir is a “data-mining juggernaut” that works closely with US intelligence and national security agencies. It is a UK strategic defence partner, and operates the UK NHS Federated Data Platform which “connects vital health information across the NHS.”

Palantir also operates a number of its own strategic partnerships with other global corporations. For example, its partnership with KPMG affords KPMG access to “Palantir Foundry”—Palantir’s AI software platform. The government then awarded KPMG the contract to promote and rollout Palantir’s NHS Federated Data Platform across the country. This is understandable because Palantir Foundry is also the AI software platform digitally transforming the UK government.

Palantir’s partnership with the UK digital verification service (DVS) provider Deloitte enables both companies to “break down institutional barriers, organize fragmented data, and transform information into decisive action.” Its partnership with Accenture will supposedly deliver “transformational outcomes,” and its partnership with fellow US intelligence cut-out Oracle will “accelerate AI” for businesses and governments. This is why the UK government has given Oracle the contract to do just that.

With its vast array of networked connections into the heart of the British state, it is no surprise that the UK government is heavily reliant on Palantir Gotham to plan missions and run investigations “using disparate data.” This will enable state operatives—or Palantir operatives, depending on how you look at it—to “produce actionable intelligence based on the full ecosystem of available data.” For Palantir, that “available data” in the UK appears to be pretty much all of it.

In the UK, Gotham is fully “interoperable with any legacy system,” quickly makes “connections across massive scale, dispersed datasets,” and enables the sharing of “investigative reports” either “internally” or with “partner agencies,” who ever they may be. If it existed, BritCard would add nothing other than additional hassle.

Once again, interoperability, is the key to hoovering up data from all “dispersed datasets” and Palantir is among the North American, UK, and European global technology firms to have already invested in the interoperable digital attributes framework in the UK. Louis Mosley, Executive Vice President (EVP) of the UK and Europe for Palantir Technologies, told the House of Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee—which was deliberating on the UK government’s e-ID plans:

Interoperability is our [Palantir’s] bread and butter. As the Chair described, one of the core value-adds of the software is the fact that it can interact with and read and write data from pretty much every system out there. […] [W]e provide an enormous amount of control and governance to the organisations that use our software.

With this mouthwatering and unprecedented control and governance on the near horizon, what on earth possessed the government to seemingly throw the whole thing into jeopardy by trying to stamp digital ID onto a very resistant British population? When it came to office a little over a year ago, Labour categorically rejected digital ID. Then Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said: “It’s not in our manifesto. That’s not not our approach.”

What’s changed? Has Starmer’s government lost its collective mind?

Or is there a more plausible explanation?

In a very revealing interview with former BBC political editor John Pienaar for Times Radio, Louis Mosley made a series of claims regarding why Palantir had decided—and very publicly announced—it will not back BritCard. Bizarrely, Mosley said he had “personal concerns about digital ID.”

He added that Palantir will “help democratically elected governments implement the policies they have been elected to deliver.” He noted, however, that digital ID was not in Labour’s election manifesto and that the decision to adopt digital should be taken at “the ballot box.” Therefore, he demurred, the BritCard project “isn’t one for” Palantir.

Of course, harvesting every possible scrap of data to enable “control” of the population wasn’t in the Labour Party’s manifesto either, but that hasn’t stopped Palantir from enthusiastically diving into that project. As for Mosley’s personal qualms about such things, if he holds them, he is definitely working for the wrong intelligence-linked “data-mining juggernaut.”

It was Pienaar who perhaps made the most interesting comment of all:

Among the other views, privately expressed by ministers, about the digital ID, a program, which at least one senior politician, who thought this wasn’t going to happen, it was just be too difficult. Do you think it’s gonna happen?

Pienaar is a member of the Establishment. He is privy to the the off-the-record discussions of ministers. His observation is worth thinking about.

Mosely replied:

One of my concerns about it is the technical feasibility of it or, maybe better expressed, the technical necessity of it. No doubt, we have all had the experience of engaging with parts of government where the online experience leaves something to be desired. It needs improvement.

However, we are in a world now where, I think, there are at least a dozen unique identifiers for each of us in government. We have passports, we have driving licenses, we have unique tax codes, we have national insurance numbers. Now, each of these sits in a silo and doesn’t talk to the other, isn’t harmonised. There’s no way for government to easily jump from one to another.

That could be achieved, in the back-end, with relatively little effort and I think that would go a long way to improving that citizen experience. I don’t see the need for an additional form of identification on top of the many that already exist.

Over the last decade or so, ably assisted by mega-corporations like Palantir, Deloitte, and Oracle, successive British governments have been putting the interoperable digital ID infrastructure together. Mosley casually refers to this as the “back-end.”

Our adoption of digital ID is absolutely essential to the state’s, and its private partners’, long-term plans. At some point, we have to be convinced to use it.

Let’s assume Pienaar is right: the government knows we will not accept e-ID. How, then, does it coerce us into adopting it?

It announces a Mickey Mouse, pretend digital ID and deliberately raises the specter of government overreach in our lives. It knows we will react viscerally and anticipates the backlash. In so doing, it focuses the public debate on the introduction of a single, government issued e-ID which it doesn’t need and has put no effort into developing. Waiting for us is the real digital ID system that government and its corporate partners, like Palantir, have actually been engineering.

Along comes the saviour, in this instance embodied by Palantir and Louis Mosley, pointing out to us that we don’t need BritCard. We just need to improve the “back-end” of the government’s system so that all our cards and licenses can “talk to the other” in harmony. And that is the essence of genuine digital ID.

It seems highly likely that we will reject BritCard. An ignominious defeat will be heaped on the government and talked about incessantly by the media as it extols how we Brits will never succumb to digital ID.

It’s just that we need to tweak the “back-end” a bit to improve our “citizen experience” as we interact with the online public-private state.

BritCard is a bait and switch psyop. Don’t fall for it.

*  *  *

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 02:00

Interstellar Object Is Spraying Something Weird, Scientists Find

Authored by Frank Landymore via Futurism.com,

A new analysis of our solar system’s interstellar interloper, 3I/ATLAS, reveals that it’s spewing huge amounts of water — and astronomers can’t immediately explain why.

Illustration by Tag Hartman-Simkins / Futurism. Source: Getty Images

The object, which is widely believed to be comet, showed strong ultraviolet emissions that are unmistakable telltales of hydroxyl gas (OH), a byproduct of water, when astronomers imaged it with NASA’s Neil Gehrels Swift space telescope before it disappeared behind the Sun. The emissions could only be spotted from space because the ultraviolet light would get absorbed in the atmosphere.

Their findings, detailed in a new study published in The Astrophysical Journal Letters, argue that the presence of all this OH indicates the comet is ejecting water vapor at a torrential rate of about 88 pounds per second — around the same rate as a fire hose running at full blast, according to a press release about the findings.

The most extraordinary thing is that this was spotted happening pretty far from the Sun, at a heliocentric distance of about three astronomical units (AU) away, or three times the distance between the Earth and our star. Typically, comets stray much closer to the Sun before the water ice in their core, called a nucleus, begins to sublimate, or instantly transform from a solid to a gas. Something else must be driving all the water dumping from 3I/ATLAS — which also implies, tantalizingly, that the comet must harbor considerable stores of water for this process to keep going.

“When we detect water — or even its faint ultraviolet echo, OH, — from an interstellar comet, we’re reading a note from another planetary system,” coauthor Dennis Bodewits, a professor of physics at Auburn University, said in the release. “It tells us that the ingredients for life’s chemistry are not unique to our own.”

It’s another example of the fascinating strangeness of interstellar objects like 3I/ATLAS. Think of it as a sample of somewhere very far away, perhaps tens of millions of light years, careening straight past our doorstep. That it’s in many ways bizarre compared to local comets hints at just how unique these unimaginable alien realms must be, and how we have so much more to understand of how star systems form and how their structures may evolve.

Typically, a comet’s coma, a huge halo of gas and dust that give comets their glowing appearance, begin to form as the object nears the Sun — or another star, presumably — and heats up. The heat either sublimates or vaporizes the material in its nucleus, which is many times smaller than the tail that catches our eyes from the ground, stretching behind the comet.

3I/ATLAS’s coma has already surprised us in many ways. Its chemistry is strange compared to our own comets, and it appears to have an astonishingly high ratio of carbon dioxide to water.

What’s causing the outpouring of water vapor is still unclear. The astronomers speculate that sunlight might be heating up the ice grains released from the nucleus, which then get vaporized into the surrounding coma.

Astronomers believe that 3I/ATLAS came from the center of the Milky Way, where it was likely booted out of its original star system by a gravitational disturbance like the close flyby of another star, braving interstellar space before eventually cruising through our solar neighborhood. Based on these inferences, astronomers estimated that the comet must be billions of years old, perhaps three billion years older than the Sun itself. It’s not only a snapshot of a different part of the galaxy, but a different era of the cosmos altogether.

Right now, 3I/ATLAS is flying behind the Sun, so we can’t observe it from Earth. But scientists have been able to catch a glimpse of it using spacecraft stationed near Mars, and it’ll soon swing back into full view in late November.

“Every interstellar comet so far has been a surprise,” said lead author Zexi Xing, a postdoctoral researcher at Auburn University, said in a statement about the work referencing the two previously discovered interstellar objects. “‘Oumuamua was dry, Borisov was rich in carbon monoxide, and now ATLAS is giving up water at a distance where we didn’t expect it.”

“Each one,” Xing added, “is rewriting what we thought we knew about how planets and comets form around stars.”

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Tyler Durden Sun, 10/12/2025 - 23:25

'Darker The Better': Daily Cocoa Slows 'Inflammaging' By 70%

Authored by Rachel Ann T. Melegrito via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Your daily hot cocoa might do more than warm you up - it could also prevent heart disease and the inflammation that drives it, according to a recent study.

katrinsav/Shutterstock

As we get older, our bodies become more inflamed, increasing our risks of developing chronic disease and dying.

A large-scale study tracked people who took daily cocoa supplements for two years and found that body-wide inflammation stayed steady instead of rising - with the strongest effects in those who had higher inflammation at baseline.

In the COcoa Supplement and Multivitamin Outcomes Study (COSMOS) trial, daily cocoa extract supplements were linked to a 27 percent lower risk of death from cardiovascular disease.

Taking cocoa extract supplementation lowered C-reactive protein, a key marker of body-wide inflammation, by 70 percent after two years.

That drop corresponds to an estimated 7 percent to 23 percent lower risk of cardiovascular events, shifting participants from the “average-risk” range into the low-risk range for heart disease, while the placebo group remained in the average-risk category.

The Inflammation Connection

The study focused on C-reactive protein, or CRP, which typically rises about 5 percent annually with age and is widely used as a marker of body-wide inflammation. This process, dubbed “inflammaging” by researchers, fuels chronic diseases, frailty, disability, and premature death.

While the placebo group’s CRP levels rose by about 5 percent per year, the cocoa group’s dipped by about 3 percent—a change that wasn’t significant on its own. However, when the two groups were compared across two years, cocoa significantly prevented the usual age-related inflammaging, keeping inflammation steady. These results came from a standardized 500-milligram cocoa flavanol supplement (including 80 milligrams epicatechin).

The findings suggest that cocoa may help protect the heart by lowering inflammation, a key driver of cardiovascular disease, Howard Sesso, associate professor of medicine at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and lead author of the study, told The Epoch Times.

The cocoa group also showed a small but significant rise in IFN-γ. This messenger has potential antiviral effects, which may indicate protective effects, though its effect on health is still unclear and requires more study.

These results come from the COSMOS-Blood substudy, which followed nearly 600 generally healthy older adults (average age 70) with no history of cardiovascular disease or cancer through repeated blood tests over two years.

How Cocoa Fights Inflammation

Cocoa extract appears to blunt inflammaging by lowering CRP.

Cocoa is naturally rich in flavanols, which counter inflammation at the molecular level. They turn down a key switch that tells cells to make pro-inflammatory molecules like CRP. They also boost nitric oxide production, which relaxes blood vessels, lowers oxidative stress, and helps calm inflammation in the vessel walls.

In the heart, flavanols help lower blood pressure, keep blood flowing smoothly, and lower the risk of stroke and atherosclerosis by keeping blood vessels flexible and platelets less “sticky.”

A review of clinical trials found that cocoa or dark chocolate can boost nitric oxide levels and lower oxidative stress. The effects were strongest with higher flavanol doses, over 450 milligrams per day.

Make Cocoa Work for You

Not all cocoa products are created equal, Sesso said, noting that most cocoa products lose flavanols during processing and labels don’t list their content.

Melissa Mitri, a registered dietitian-nutritionist and owner of Melissa Mitri Nutrition, agreed, noting that the study used a specific, standardized dose of 500 milligrams of cocoa extract. “The amount of cocoa flavanols present in food forms, like dark chocolate, can vary significantly and may not always contain the amount shown to provide anti-inflammatory benefits in the research,” Mitri told The Epoch Times.

“Cocoa powder may be a better option,” Sesso added. “But this does not mean we should all turn to supplements. Instead, it is important to focus on flavanol-rich foods that include cocoa, berries, tea, grapes, and other plant-based foods.”

Experts say natural is better. “The real benefits come from cocoa, so the darker the chocolate, the better. Aim for 70 percent cocoa or higher,” Kara Siedman, a nutritionist and director of partnerships with resbiotic Nutrition, told The Epoch Times.

Siedman noted that chocolate is calorie-dense and easy to overdo. She recommended just a square or two after dinner, savored slowly, or using unsweetened cocoa powder in smoothies, oatmeal, or yogurt to get flavanols without added sugar and fat.

The most effective approach combines cocoa with other proven strategies like regular exercise and healthy eating patterns, such as the Mediterranean diet and omega-3s. “What matters most is consistency—the foods and habits you follow most of the time.”

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Tyler Durden Sun, 10/12/2025 - 21:05

Luigi Mangione's Lawyers Ask Judge To Dismiss Federal Charges In Assassination Of UnitedHealthcare CEO

Lawyers for accused assassin Luigi Mangione asked a Manhattan federal judge Saturday to throw out some of his criminal charges - including the lone charge that could put him on death row in the December assassination of UnitedHealthcare chief Brian Thompson outside a Midtown hotel, court papers say.

Luigi Mangione is escorted into Manhattan state court in New York, Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2025. Seth Wenig/AP Photo

The defense also wants Mangione’s statements to cops and his backpack with a gun and ammo kept out of trial, arguing he wasn’t read his rights and that officers searched the bag without a warrant after collaring him days later, according to the filing.

Mangione, 27, has pleaded not guilty to state and federal raps in the Dec. 4 killing, which stunned Wall Street and sent corporate security teams scrambling. Thompson was gunned down as he arrived for his company’s annual investor conference, a murder that triggered a multistate manhunt. The suspected shooter ditched the scene on a bicycle to Central Park, then hopped a taxi to a bus depot, investigators say. He was grabbed five days later after a McDonald’s tip in Altoona, Pa., roughly 233 miles from Manhattan, and has been held without bail since.

In a minute-by-minute takedown narrative, defense attorneys paint Mangione as cooperative when two "fully armed" officers approached him in the fast-food joint, saying a caller had flagged him as “suspicious.” He allegedly handed over a New Jersey driver’s license in someone else’s name before cops told him to stand up, hands on his head for a frisk. One officer then stepped outside to summon backup, telling a colleague he was “100 percent” sure they had their guy. Nearly a half-dozen more officers swarmed the restaurant within minutes, according to the filing—before, the defense says, any Miranda warning or warrant.

The high-stakes legal fight centers on a federal firearms murder statute, the only count that makes capital punishment possible in a state where New York law doesn’t apply the death penalty. The defense says prosecutors haven’t identified the requisite “crime of violence” to pair with the gun charge and argues the alleged predicate—stalking—isn’t one.

Last month, Mangione’s team also moved to strike the death penalty from the case after U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi publicly ordered prosecutors to seek it, calling the slaying a “premeditated, cold-blooded assassination that shocked America.” The defense says those comments taint the process.

The shocking hit ignited a firestorm against big insurers online. At the crime scene, investigators found ammo scrawled with “delay,” “deny,” and “depose,” a grim echo of phrases blasted by industry critics.

Next up: Treasury-sized legal trench warfare. Prosecutors will defend their charging decisions and the cops’ actions; the defense will press to gut the capital count and suppress key evidence. The judge’s rulings could decide whether this is a straight murder case—or a potential death-penalty showdown.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/12/2025 - 20:30

Holdfast Alaska: The Family That Chose To Homestead In The Alaskan Wilderness

Authored by Ryan Cashman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

It had already been a long journey by the time Dennis and Amy Westerlind reached the Port of Bellingham, Washington, on a cold November night in 2020. They had spent several days driving 3,200 miles from their homestead in Maine. Now, with their young daughter Lena snuggled safely in the back seat, they loaded their car onto a ferry and prepared for departure. 

Dennis and Amy Westerlind on their Alaska homestead. Courtesy of Holdfast Alaska

A thick darkness enveloped the ferry as they sailed into the waters of the northern Pacific. Whipping winds and strong tides had churned the sea into an aggressive obstacle. A former lobsterman, Dennis was used to choppy waters. This was different. 

“There were 36-foot seas on that crossing. It was a rough ride. And we were on that boat for about five days,” he said. 

Despite the harsh seas they now faced, the family continued to find strength in the shared dream that had motivated them for years. Back east, they had saved every penny to buy some overgrown acres in western Maine. Through grit and determination, they’d transformed that property into a thriving, off-grid homestead. Leaving it behind wasn’t easy. 

But their hearts longed to be elsewhere—somewhere they could truly test what they were made of. 

Days later, the ferry docked, and the Westerlind family drove onto the soil of a place they had never visited but always dreamed to be: Alaska. 

Courtesy of Holdfast Alaska A New England Primer

The dream of living off-grid in the Alaskan wilderness had taken hold during the couple’s early years of marriage. At that point, they lived in a small apartment in eastern Massachusetts. Dennis worked as a lobsterman for his father-in-law’s fishing company. Amy was the company secretary. 

This suburban lifestyle was familiar territory. Both had grown up in densely populated New England towns, and neither had a background in farming, gardening, off-grid living, animal husbandry, hunting, foraging, or homestead construction. 

Yet those hurdles only strengthened their determination. They found small ways to bring more self-sufficiency into their daily lives. Amy started a garden out on their small patio, where she grew tomatoes and other vegetables in pots. As often as they could, the couple traveled to Maine and explored the wilderness. It was during those trips that they began to take their off-grid dreams seriously. 

“We were just getting sick of living down near the city [Boston]. So, we started spending all our free time looking for cheap, owner-financed land we could afford. We saved money everywhere we could. I stopped getting haircuts. We didn’t go out to eat. We just paid the rent and did a lot of home cooking,” Dennis said. 

Eventually, the couple amassed $5,000 in savings, which they used as a down payment on a promising property in western Maine. 

“There was an old-timer who was looking to sell. We told him what we wanted to do, and he treated us really well. We just gave him the down payment, shook hands, and that was that,” said Dennis. 

“We couldn’t wait to get up there,” Amy added. 

Courtesy of Holdfast Alaska

Against the advice of their families, the Westerlinds moved to their new 30-acre, off-grid homestead in March 2011. There was no infrastructure, so they spent the spring and summer living in a tent, cooking over campfires, bathing with water from the freshwater spring, and building a small cabin. 

Over the next eight years, the couple completely transformed the overgrown mountainside. They dug a well, expanded the cabin, cleared acres of trees, established pasture, raised farm animals, cooked from scratch, grew herbs and vegetables, preserved their harvest, and, in 2019, welcomed their daughter, Lena, to the family. 

“She was born at home in the cabin,” said Amy. 

“That whole homestead was a labor of love. Everything we did was by hand and out-of-pocket,” Dennis said. 

However, the family soon found that they wanted a little more space. They sold their property and paid cash for a farmhouse on 50 acres outside of Farmington, Maine. As they had before, they self-financed their home repairs, purchased a milk cow, and started a CSA market garden for income. But something else was still calling them. 

“We always wanted to come to Alaska. Since we were young, healthy, and able-bodied, we decided to just do it,” Dennis explained. They sold their farmhouse, bid Maine farewell, and headed west to meet the Washington ferry that would bring them to Alaska. 

Courtesy of Holdfast AlaskaCourtesy of Holdfast Alaska A Different World

Arriving in Alaska at the start of winter was a system shock for the Westerlinds. 

As Dennis described, “It was one of the hardest things to adapt to. The sun doesn’t really come up until 10:30 a.m., and then, by about 3 p.m., it’s night again.”

“But, it was almost smarter to get here in the wintertime. We got the full blast right off the bat,” Amy added. 

They purchased a 2-acre homestead on the outskirts of Kenai National Wildlife Refuge. There, they spent the next few years learning the ropes of living in coastal Alaska. They fished for salmon and hunted for moose and elk on the banks of the Kenai River. However, they soon realized that the area was a watered-down version of what they truly wanted.

The Westerlinds learned a traditional method to preserve their Copper River salmon—no power needed, just sun, smoke, and wind. Courtesy of Holdfast Alaska

“It was a bit too crowded. Too much like Maine. We were looking for a more authentic, wild Alaskan experience,” Dennis said. 

In spring of 2024, the family moved again, this time deep into the eastern Alaskan interior. They paid cash for a small, off-grid log cabin on 7 acres near the northern entrance of Wrangell–St. Elias National Park. 

Owing to a lack of state resources and their remote location, the Westerlinds found themselves living in a subsistence zone, a legally drawn area where residents are allowed to subsist on what they can harvest from the land. 

Dennis elaborated: “To give an example, when we lived on the Kenai, for our family size, we were allowed to dipnet and keep 45 sockeye salmon for the year. Up here we’re allowed 500.”

Hunting restrictions are looser as well. The Westerlinds’ season starts much earlier in the spring than other areas of Alaska, and they are also allowed to bag higher quantities of moose, elk, deer, porcupine, and bear. 

“That was a big factor for us to move to such a remote place, because our goal, our dream, is to live off the land. We can do that here. It’s a totally different world,” Dennis said. 

Off-Grid YouTubing

The move inland prompted another change in the Westerlinds’ life: the creation of a YouTube channel in September 2024. They had always utilized their land or learned skills to provide an income for themselves. Back in Maine, Amy had become an herbalist while Dennis farmed and did odd jobs. On the Kenai, they had herd-shared goats and worked in the area real estate market. Now, however, they were homesteading full-time. They decided to start vlogging. 

“We bought a GoPro and just started taking videos of ourselves messing around on the homestead, and people took to it,” Dennis said. 

They named their YouTube channel Holdfast Alaska. Unlike many other homesteading content creators, the Westerlinds chose not to focus on gardening and livestock rearing. Instead, they wanted to show what it takes to live a subsistence lifestyle on a remote homestead: 17-hour supply runs to Anchorage; building an A-frame chicken coop with a living roof for insulation during the harsh winters; hunting moose and porcupine for dinner. 

However, more than just showing their lives in inland Alaska, the Westerlinds wanted to use their platform to add value to people’s lives. 

“I wanted to make the channel somewhere we could teach and help people learn to can, forage, or use herbal medicine,” Amy said. “We wanted to give value to people who want to live a similar life, or even people who don’t live this way. Providing inspiration is huge, because that’s what got us started.” 

A good portion of their video library consists of Amy utilizing the food they’ve grown, foraged, or hunted to make moose chili, salmon dip, sourdough donuts, lacto-fermented pickles, and so much more. 

Courtesy of Holdfast Alaska

In under a year, their channel gathered 52,000 subscribers, which neither expected. 

“We definitely got more support from the general public than I thought we would when we made this channel,” said Dennis. 

While they don’t show Lena’s face on their channel for safety reasons, her small, excited voice can be heard echoing in the background of their videos. 

“We really enjoy raising her in a wild place like this,” Amy said. 

Dennis added, “It makes her capable, you know? She’s tough. She handles the cold better than we do.” 

Courtesy of Holdfast Alaska A Dream Come True

The Westerlinds have no illusions; they know their lifestyle isn’t for everyone. In fact, despite dreaming of homesteading in Alaska for ages, they can hardly believe they’ve actually achieved it. 

“When we lived in Massachusetts, if you had told us that we were going to end up living here, we’d have said, ‘No way!’” Dennis said. “But, you know, you get to Alaska and you start to understand how to exist among all this wilderness.” 

The family has its fair share of struggles. There is the underlying danger of charging moose, hungry bears getting into the chicken coop, or summer forest fires destroying acreage. There’s also the constant learning and adaptation that comes with remote living. However, the Westerlinds are ready to meet their challenges head on. 

Courtesy of Holdfast Alaska

“We’re very hardworking. We have a lot of grit. And with the homestead, Dennis and I feel very rewarded that the hard work we put in directly relates to how we live day-to-day,” Amy said. 

“If we had listened to everybody who told us right from the start not to move to Maine, don’t buy land, don’t move to Alaska, we wouldn’t have done anything,” Dennis said. “We didn’t listen to them. We just worked hard. If you have something you want to do, you have to do more than others are doing in order to achieve it.” 

For this family, a dream is worth nothing unless you have the determination to achieve it. 

This article was originally published in American Essence magazine.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/12/2025 - 19:55

Charlie Kirk Assassination Suspect Wants To Wear Plain Clothes In Court To Gain Sympathy Among Potential Jurors

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Defense attorneys representing the man accused of assassinating conservative commentator Charlie Kirk last month filed a court motion on Thursday asking a judge to allow him to attend in-person court hearings wearing plain clothes and without shackles.

A police mugshot shows Tyler Robinson, the suspect in the fatal shooting of conservative commentator Charlie Kirk during an event at Utah Valley University, in Orem, Utah, in this photo released by the Utah Department of Public Safety, on Sept. 12, 2025. Utah Department of Public Safety/Handout via Reuters

During his first court appearance, Robinson was seen wearing jail clothing and what appeared to be an anti-suicide smock. He made his first court appearance virtually.

In the motion submitted to Judge Tony Graf, his attorneys argued that the change in clothes is needed to ensure that potential jurors are not impacted by seeing Robinson in jail garb and with shackles. They cited interest in the case, including 18,000 search results for his first court appearance.

“With each development in the case generating thousands of articles and comments online, the likelihood of potential jurors seeing and drawing conclusions regarding Mr. Robinson’s guilt and or deserved punishment from obvious signs of pretrial incarceration will only increase,” said his attorneys, led by public defender Kathryn Nester.

They added that “given the pervasive media coverage in this case, the repeated and ubiquitous display of Mr. Robinson in jail garb, shackles, and a suicide vest will undoubtedly be viewed by prospective jurors and will inevitably lead to prospective juror perception that he is guilty and deserving of death.”

The defense’s motion cited the murder case against Bryan Kohberger in Idaho, noting that his attorneys successfully persuaded a judge to allow him to wear a suit and appear without cuffs in the courthouse. Kohberger pleaded guilty to four murders in July as part of a deal to avoid the death penalty and was sentenced to four consecutive life sentences without the possibility of parole.

“In the modern age of ubiquitous internet access and unrelenting media attention to high-profile criminal cases,” Robinson’s attorneys also wrote, “the prejudicial effect of a criminal defendant appearing in shackles, jail attire, and bullet-proof or suicide vests at any hearing threatens fundamental fairness.”

They also said that Robinson does not have a criminal record and has been well-behaved in custody.

He was charged several days after Kirk’s assassination on Sept. 10 with the capital aggravated murder charge, which carries the possibility of the death penalty, as well as felony discharge of a firearm causing serious bodily harm, and obstruction of justice. A judge ordered that he be held without bail.

Authorities, including Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, have said they believe that Robinson acted alone. Family members said Robinson “had become more political in recent years,” Cox said, describing a recent family dinner during which he expressed displeasure with Kirk’s views, while prosecutors have said his family stated that he expressed left-wing political views.

They also said he was in a romantic relationship with his roommate, a man who identified as a transgender woman. Bullets that were recovered in the case allegedly contained anti-fascist and video game-related messages, said prosecutors and Cox.

Prosecutors said Robinson took responsibility for Kirk’s assassination after his family members confronted him about it. He also allegedly left behind a message to the roommate suggesting that he took responsibility.

Kirk, a conservative influencer who was close to President Donald Trump, was shot and killed while hosting a debate at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. In response, Trump administration officials and the president have been criticizing calls for violence motivated by political disagreements and suggested that Kirk’s death was, in part, motivated by such rhetoric.

Robinson is next scheduled to appear in court on Oct. 30.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 10/12/2025 - 17:35