Zero Hedge

After Judicial Tyranny, Tesla Asks Shareholders To Approve Musk's $56 Billion Comp... Again

After Judicial Tyranny, Tesla Asks Shareholders To Approve Musk's $56 Billion Comp... Again

At his peak, Elon Musk was worth $340BN (Nov 2021) and stood alone as the world's richest man/women/other. According to Bloomberg's billionaires list, he is now worth mere $175BN... sliding to just the fourth-richest in the world as Tesla's share price has declined and after a Delaware judge decided in January that Musk was just paid too damn much for creating a $1.2 trillion company by Nov 2021.

But now, he may be about to climb that wealth ladder back to the top once more as Tesla has asked shareholders to vote again on the same $56 billion compensation package that was voided by a Delaware court early this year.

Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm criticized the Delaware Chancery Court’s January decision, writing in the proxy that it amounted to second-guessing shareholders who had approved Musk’s performance-based award in 2018.

“Because the Delaware Court second-guessed your decision, Elon has not been paid for any of his work for Tesla for the past six years that has helped to generate significant growth and stockholder value,” Denholm wrote.

The filing went on to say that negotiating a new pay package would take time and lead to incurring billions of dollars in additional compensation expense.

Therefore, ratifying the 2018 package will be faster and “avoid a prolonged period of uncertainty regarding Tesla’s most important employee.”

Additionally, the filing shows Tesla considered nine other states as alternatives to Delaware before narrowing its choice down to California, Nevada, New York or Texas.

It settled on the state where it’s headquartered and is home to its newest EV plant.

“Tesla is all-in on Texas,” the company said.

“Tesla’s corporate identity is increasingly intertwined with Texas.”

Finally, Bloomberg reports that, according to the filing, dozens of institutional shareholders have contacted Tesla and expressed support for the 2018 compensation plan, including four of the top 10. The carmaker also said that thousands of retail investors have sent letters and emails to the board expressing the same sentiment.

Of course, if this passes the shareholder vote, we assume the honorable Chief Judge Kathaleen St. J. McCormick - who described the company’s directors as “supine servants of an overweening master” - will have problems asserting that they hadn’t looked out for the best interests of investors... since it was the investors themselves, now fully informed, that democratically voted for Musk's compensation plan.

...or does democracy (and capitalism) die in Delaware?

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 10:05

Stocks Will Get Bad Breadth From Higher Yields

Stocks Will Get Bad Breadth From Higher Yields

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

Higher yields threaten to make already-fraying breadth in US stocks even worse. This points to heightened short-term risks for the market, although the medium-term positive trend remains intact.

Breadth measures for the US market have in many cases deteriorated to levels last seen in November. The net number of stocks on the NYSE making new highs has fallen to its November lows, and the same for the S&P 500 advance-decline line. The percentage of S&P stocks with their RSI below 30 has hit six-month highs.

Higher yields are poised to worsen the outlook. Since last summer, there has been a good inverse relationship with the 10-year yield and the percentage of S&P stocks trading above their 200-day moving average. Breadth on this measure is currently higher than the straight-line relationship would imply, and further rises in yields potentially mean more S&P stocks will weaken.

Mark Cudmore has previously pointed out that higher yields in the next few weeks might be less of a problem for stocks, as they are more spurred by growth than inflation. Perhaps that will be the case, but we have not seen any capitulation yet in breadth measures, which would bring more comfort that the current downwards spasm is over.

Nonetheless, the medium-term upwards trend in the market remains intact. One of the simplest and most reliable timers to tell you when to be in and out of the market is the 13 and 26-week moving average crossover for the S&P. The 13-week MA remains above the 26-week, suggesting the market remains in a positive regime over the medium term, despite shorter-term risks.

Resurgent inflation will dominate the medium and longer-term outlook for markets. While the deteriorating risk-reward of shorting Treasuries or buying gold or Bitcoin is more established, there are several other trades that are historically way offside compared to where they have been in previous inflation regimes, and therefore have the most catch-up potential.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 09:45

Biden Calls For Tripling Tariffs On Chinese Steel Ahead Of Speech In Swing State Of Pennsylvania

Biden Calls For Tripling Tariffs On Chinese Steel Ahead Of Speech In Swing State Of Pennsylvania

The White House announced on Wednesday morning that President Biden will call for tripling tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum in a speech later today to steelworkers in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state.

Biden is set to speak with United Steelworkers union members in Pittsburgh. This is part of a multi-day campaign across the swing state to convince unions and residents about more years of failed 'Bidenomics.' While Biden campaigns, New York Judge Juan Merchan warned former President Trump he would be arrested if he skipped the trial in his hush-money case in Manhattan. 

"President Biden knows that steel is the backbone of the American economy, and a bedrock of our national security. American steel fueled the country's industrialization and helped build the middle class," the White House wrote in a press release.

The Financial Times said Biden will ask trade representative Katherine Tai to triple the import tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum from the current 7.5%. 

"It is important for us to get ahead of China's new export surge and their continued pressure on prices that make it hard for American steel companies to compete," a senior US official told FT, who added that the actions had "nothing to do with elections."

Anyone with common sense can see these actions were entirely related to elections in the key battleground state. 

FT continues: 

Tai is nearing completion of a statutory review of the tariffs that former president Donald Trump levied in his trade war against China.

She is also set on Wednesday to unveil a probe into unfair practices in the Chinese shipbuilding industry, following a petition from United Steelworkers.

White House National Economic Adviser Lael Brainard told reporters, "China's policy-driven overcapacity poses a serious risk to the future of the American steel and aluminum industry," adding, "Beijing is simply too big to play by its own rules." 

Meanwhile, a senior administration official told NBC News, "If taken, these actions will not increase inflation ... and it will protect American jobs and the steel industry."

Basic economics says that higher tariffs can spark inflation and drive a negative supply shock, raising the prices of inputs to production and thus increasing output prices. 

Revisiting the Biden's Inflation Reduction Act... Has it brought inflation back to Fed Powell's comfort zone of sub-2 %? The answer is no. Inflation is reaccelerating

The Pittsburgh announcement is nothing more than a political stunt as Biden attempts to win Pennsylvania and New York courts have tied Trump's hands so that he can't campaign in the swing state for now. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 07:20

Who's To Blame For The US Fentanyl Crisis?

Who's To Blame For The US Fentanyl Crisis?

While China has long been criticized for its failure to crack down on Chinese companies producing fentanyl precursors that often end up in Mexican drug labs, Americans see plenty of culprits for the ongoing fentanyl crisis that is taking tens of thousand of American lives each year.

Statista's Felix Richter reports that, according to a YouGov/Economist poll conducted in November 2023, people put the most blame on drug dealers who illegally sell fentanyl, often unbeknownst to the buyers who think they’re purchasing another drug that has been laced with the highly potent and incredibly lethal synthetic opioid.

 Who's to Blame for the U.S. Fentanyl Crisis? | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Mexico, the main source of the finished drug, comes second on the list of perceived culprits, with China, the main supplier of fentanyl precursors, close behind.

Only slightly fewer people put at least some blame on the federal government, which has so far failed to find a way to effectively stop the flow of fentanyl into the country and subsequently the hands of its citizens.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 05:45

RFK Jr Won't Pursue Libertarian Nomination, Says Team Trump Asked Him To Be VP

RFK Jr Won't Pursue Libertarian Nomination, Says Team Trump Asked Him To Be VP

After seriously considering the possibility, 2024 presidential hopeful Robert F. Kennedy, Jr has declared he will not seek the Libertarian Party nomination, saying he's confident he'll achieve ballot access across the country on his own. Meanwhile, in a social media skirmish with Team Trump, Kennedy said Trump associates asked him to consider becoming the former president's running mate. 

In a political system with formidable ballot-access barriers that protect the Democrat-Republican duopoly, outsider presidential candidates are frequently attracted to the idea of running as a Libertarian -- if only to access the party's hard-earned, 50-state ballot qualification. 

Thanks in part to his staunchly pro-Israel positions, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr faced an uphill climb to win the Libertarian Party's nomination (Anna Moneymaker/Getty via Town & Country)

"We're not gonna have any problems getting on the ballot ourselves so we won't be running Libertarian," Kennedy tells ABC News. That declaration came as his team was celebrating their exploitation of a quirk in Iowa ballot-access law: Rather than gathering 3,500 signatures, the Kennedy team held a convention in West Des Moines. Consistent with state requirements, it included at least 500 voters who represented at least 25 of the Hawkeye State's 99 counties.   

Kennedy assured ABC that he's "100% confident" he'll manage the arduous process -- which includes fending off Democrats' lawfare -- in all 50 states, saying "we're going to add probably two to three states a week."

While Kennedy framed his decision solely in ballot-access terms, it was far from certain that he could have actually won the Libertarian nod. The nominee isn't selected by party leadership, but by delegates at the group's convention -- all of whom show up fully free to vote for the candidate of their choice. Things can get wild and spontaneous, and not just in a political sense: 

Kennedy has plenty of overlaps with libertarians, some of his stances could be seen as disqualifying:

  • His staunchly pro-Israel statements before and during the Gaza war devastated his standing with non-interventionist libertarians (and progressive leftists to boot). The damage hasn't caused him to temper his remarks: On Saturday, he oddly referred to Israel as "our oldest ally" and said "the U.S. ought to be bending over backwards to protect Israel." 
  • While he's expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of gun control, he said he would sign an "assault weapon ban" if Congress sent him one.
  • He's also called for a $15 national minimum wage, more free childcare, and abolishing interest on all federal student loans. 

Meanwhile, responding to a series of Truth Social posts by Trump, in which the former president called Kennedy "the most radical liberal" in the race, Kennedy said Trump's "emissaries" asked him to become his running mate.  

Trump's co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita quickly fired back, denying Kennedy's claim and calling him a "leftie loonie" to boot...

Politico reports that Trump had casually floated the idea in conversations, adding that "Trump is known to workshop ideas to a variety of aides and allies, even if they never come to fruition. As he does with many political rivals, Trump has directed a mixture of flattery and abuse at Kennedy -- as he did last week:  

"He’s got some nice things about him. I happen to like him. Unfortunately he is about the ‘Green New Scam’ because he believes in that and a lot of people don’t.

I guess that would mean that RFK Jr.’s going to be taking away votes from Crooked Joe Biden, and he should because he’s actually better than Biden. He’s much better than Biden. If I were a Democrat, I’d vote for RFK Jr. every single time over Biden.”

Kennedy's polling at 9.3% in the RealClearPolitics average. If nothing else, RFK Jr is a wild card who's causing more worries among Democrats than Republicans.

When Kennedy and third-party options are included in polls, they generally show their presence in the race is a net positive for Trump. In a head-to-head scenario, the RCP average has Trump up 0.2%. In a five-person race (which includes Kennedy, Jill Stein and Cornell West), Trump is ahead by 1.8%. Recognizing that, Dems have mobilized forces to file legal challenges to his ballot qualifications -- you know, in the name of Protecting Our Democracy. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 05:25

China Is By Far The World's Largest 'Hydro-Power'

China Is By Far The World's Largest 'Hydro-Power'

China is the world’s biggest hydro power producer, having generated an estimated 1,303 terawatt hours of hydropower in 2022, according to data published by Ember, a UK-based energy think tank.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, this equates to approximately 31 percent of global hydropower that year.

Following some way behind comes Brazil (427 TWh), Canada (398 TWh), the United States (249 TWh) and Russia (198 TWh).

When looking at hydropower’s share of total electricity production for each of these countries, then Norway comes first with a high 87.5 percent of its electricity energy mix having been accounted for by hydropower in 2022. Only Paraguay comes higher in terms of share of total electricity production, at 99.7 percent. If this chart were extended, it would feature in rank 15.

 The World’s Biggest Hydro Powers | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

As this chart shows, India was the sixth biggest hydropower worldwide in 2022 with approximately 175 TWh of hydropower generated that year, which accounted for 9.4 percent of the country’s electricity production.

According to Ember, fossil fuels accounted for more than three quarters (77 percent) of India’s electricity production in 2022.

This was mostly from coal (74 percent), followed by gas (2.7 percent). India’s emissions are driven by this dependence on fossil fuels as well as its large population, although per capita emissions are low.

The country has set a target of increasing the share of non-fossil fuel sources in its electricity generation capacity to 50 percent by 2030.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 02:45

US Push For A 'Middle East NATO' Failed To Emerge During Iran Strikes

US Push For A 'Middle East NATO' Failed To Emerge During Iran Strikes

Via Middle East Eye

The Islamic Republic’s Saturday attack on Israel was a made-for social media moment. It was also the ultimate test of US efforts to cobble together a coalition of Arab states and Israel in a so-called Middle East NATO, to jointly defend an attack from Tehran.

Israel, the US, France, the UK, and Jordan managed to intercept around 99 percent of the drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles fired at Israel by Iran in retaliation for an attack on its embassy in Damascus, Syria. Radar and early warning systems that the US maintains at its military bases across the Gulf were instrumental in tracking the slow-moving armada of missiles and drones, current and former US, Israeli and Arab officials told MEE, adding that the US was able to scramble jet fighters from Saudi Arabia and Qatar at the last minute to particpate in the operation. 

But in the end, the oil-rich Gulf states downplayed any involvement and left the heavy lifting of fighting off Iran’s attack to the US, its western allies and Jordan, the resource-poor Hashemite Kingdom dependent on US financial assistance.

For its part, Jordan cast its role actively downing Iranian drones as self-defense and not related to protecting Israel.  “There was unprecedented cooperation between Israel, the US and the Jordanians,” Michael Milshtein, a former Israeli military intelligence officer, told Middle East Eye. “But calling this a coalition is an illusion.”

Middle East Eye reported on Friday that the Gulf monarchies were shutting down US options to launch strikes against Iran in the event Washington felt the need to retaliate against Tehran’s attack on Israel. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, and Kuwait all scrutinized their basing agreements with Washington to do the bare minimum that was required and avoid being involved in direct strikes on Iranian targets. 

Bilal Saab, a former US Department of Defence official, now at Chatham House, told MEE that the Gulf states’ calibrated actions underscored the limits of the Biden administration's push for a Middle East Nato. “When we start seeing authorizations to use Gulf airspace to launch strikes on Iranian targets, then we can start talking about a Middle East Nato. Right now, it's the exact opposite,” he said.

“I think what we saw from Saturday’s attack pumps the breaks on any idea of an Arab and Israeli Nato.”

Propaganda war

As the dust from Saturday’s attack settles, the way regional states responded in the lead-up to the assault is becoming a new battleground between Tehran on one hand, and the US and Israel on the other - that has little to do with the Palestinians but rather the bigger question of who calls the shots in the Middle East.

The Biden administration and Israel are keen to cast Israel’s successful defense as the byproduct of a united front of allies, including Arab states. Israeli war cabinet minister Benny Gatz praised the “regional cooperation” that allowed Israel to defend itself.

Successful coordination with Arab states would allow Israel to present Saturday as a strategic win, which could help reduce tensions by lessening the need for a more forceful Israeli response, according to analysts. “What this weekend demonstrated is that Israel did not have to and does not have to defend itself alone when it is the victim of an aggression, the victim of an attack," US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday.

For its part, the Islamic Republic’s goal is to isolate Israel, preventing any cooperation between them and Gulf states. “It’s a total propaganda war right now,” Aziz Alghashian, a Saudi analyst and expert on ties between Israel and Gulf states told MEE.

Tehran and Washington are already sparring over whether advance notice of the attack on Israel was given.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said that Tehran gave the US about 72 hours prior notice of the attack through “our friends and neighbours”. On Monday, the Wall Street Journal appeared to confirm that claim, reporting that Iran briefed officials from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states on its attack. Turkish officials also told MEE that Turkey, a member of Nato, was briefed on the attack days in advance. The US, however, denied it was given a days-long heads up before the assault

Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told MEE that an Iranian leak to Gulf states would logically be passed on to the US because Arab rulers are afraid a deadly Iranian strike on Israel could spark a wider war, which Iran hoped to avoid. 

“Jordan and the Arab Gulf states are first and foremost concerned about preventing regional escalation," he told MEE. “I don’t see this as Gulf states doubling down on a strategic alignment with Israel. They are going to keep talking with Iran to prevent an unravelling that they fear will suck them all in.”

'Provoking Iran'

To be sure, the Arab Gulf states are linked more closely with Israel today than any time in history, and Israel’s war on Gaza has not led the UAE or Bahrain to rip up the 2020 Abraham Accords which saw them normalise ties with Tel Aviv.

As part of that agreement, Israel was also absorbed into Centcom, the US’s overall central command in the Middle East. Israeli military officials were even dispatched to Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base, MEE previously reported, but it's not clear if those officials are still in the country.

But Saturday’s attack on Israel underscored the US’s limited success in fostering closer security cooperation between Israel and the Gulf states, Milshtein, the former Israeli military intelligence officer, told MEE. Gulf states have no love lost for Iran, but are wary of what they believe to be the US’s waning influence in the region and limited appetite to come to their defense, as Washington did for Israel. The US did not retaliate to the 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil facilities that was blamed to have been backed by Iran.

The Gulf states' frustration with the US only grew when the Biden administration took office. Biden and members of his party criticised Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman over human rights issues. Saudi Arabia and the UAE also viewed the administration’s response to Houthi missile and drone attacks as tepid.

In response, they moved to patch up ties with Tehran. In April 2023, the UAE appointed its first new ambassador to the Islamic Republic after seven years. Saudi Arabia and Tehran normalised ties in a deal brokered by China.

"Most of the Arab states promoted reconciliation with Iran because they couldn’t rely on Biden’s administration,” Milshtein said. “They preferred to deal with Iran and not the Americans”

Saab, at Chatham House, said to achieve true regional coordination between Israel and the Gulf states, Washington would need to provide concrete security guarantees. Saudi Arabia has requested such support, along with new weapons systems, as part of a deal to normalise ties with Israel, but those talks are stalled as Israel pounds the Gaza Strip. “The last thing the Gulf is going to do is provoke Iran and not have the backing of the Americans,” Saab said.

Alghashian said Saturday’s attack on Israel likely reaffirmed Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s decision to restore ties with Tehran. He said Riyadh’s goal is to “stay out of the way” of tensions between Israel and Iran as it pursues its economic development. “The strategic value of restoring ties with Tehran is paying dividends,” he said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 02:00

'They Must Be Destroyed': How Cuban Americans Face Assassination Threats, Terror List

'They Must Be Destroyed': How Cuban Americans Face Assassination Threats, Terror List

Authored by Autumn Spredemann via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Several of Cuba’s latest “terrorists” live in Miami.

(Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images)

Luis Zuniga, a former diplomat and political prisoner of the Castro regime, is one of 61 people listed as a “terrorist” by Cuba and accused of promoting, planning, organizing, financing, or supporting actions against the Cuban communist party.

Exiles who oppose the Cuban communist party have suffered vicious attacks and assassination attempts over the years. However, a new wave of targeting was ignited after the regime, under its leader, President Miguel Díaz-Canel, published a list of alleged “terrorists” in December 2023.

The list was given to Interpol and government officials from different nations, including the United States in December 2023.

I think the overt and covert campaign of threats and intimidation by the Cuban dictatorship against U.S. citizens of Cuban descent is very important,” Orlando Gutiérrez-Boronat told The Epoch Times. He is an author, cofounder, and spokesperson for the Cuban Democratic Directorate.

Mr. Boronot’s outspoken resistance to Cuba’s communist regime landed him a spot on the so-called “terrorist” list. He has been accused of trying to destabilize the Cuban government, along with threats of violence on more than one occasion.

“I think being included in that list ... is definitely a threat.”

Some believe Cuba’s “terrorist” list and the newest round of menace toward exiles was launched because the Cuban government is on increasingly shaky ground at home.

The regime has witnessed 1,033 protests across the island in February and March this year, according to the Cuban Conflict Observatory. In recent weeks, demonstrations of all sizes have erupted across the island due to ongoing electricity and food shortages.

It’s reminiscent of the protests in July 2021, which was the largest series of anti-government demonstrations on the island since former leader Fidel Castro’s 1950s revolution. More than 700 people connected with the landmark event are still in prison, according to Human Rights Watch.

Now, Cuban Americans in Miami are fearful as Castro devotees launch a new wave of threats and their homes are targeted.

Ramon Saul Sanchez is number 29 on the list. He said he’s been struggling for the freedom of Cuba for more than 40 years and asserts the terrorist labeling is just another communist party tactic to manipulate the narrative.

“They like to use those labels. In Cuba, if you’re not pro-Castro, you’re a worm. You’re a counter-revolutionary,” he told The Epoch Times. ”I’ve never been convicted of terrorism or even charged.”

(Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images)

Activist and journalist Ninoska Perez wasn’t at all surprised to find her name on the list.

“I’ve always had the threats. They don’t like everyone to announce what they do wrong and their crimes,” Ms. Perez told The Epoch Times.

When she worked with the Cuban American National Foundation, Ms. Perez said she was targeted as an enemy of Fidel Castro’s regime early on. She called the organization Castro’s “biggest nightmare” at the time since it showcased what life on the island was actually like under communism.

Guerrero Cubano

Today, Ms. Perez works for a Miami radio station and has recently had a member of her family in the city surveilled at home by suspected members of the Cuban regime.

It’s not only that they put you on a terrorist list, but they make public your home address.

In March, the YouTube channel “Guerrero Cubano,” which translates to Cuban Warrior, posted a video that contained photos and addresses of the homes of exiles whose names appear on the “terrorist” list. Ms. Perez’s cousin lives in one of the homes.

She said it’s one thing to come after her since, as she put it, “I understand that what I do upsets a powerful dictatorship. I’m not complaining about that.”

Coming after her family, however, is much worse.

“It’s even worse because they’re subjecting her to this,” Ms. Perez said, adding that her cousin mentioned a couple of times that she’s seen strange cars parked near her house that don’t belong to any of the neighbors.

Compounding this, she feels there’s little that can be done to stop the threats. “What’s the police going to do? Patrol your house 24 hours? They simply can’t do that.”

In the Guerrero Cubano video, the narrator claims the Miami police have to be guarding homes now because people are scared. The same male narrator further states he will continue sharing information on the homes of Cuban exiles being targeted by the communist regime. He also claimed to know where the list members eat and what medications they take. The narrator even went as far as threatening to visit targeted exiles in the hospital.

The Miami Police Department didn’t respond to an Epoch Times request for comment on the recent threats against Cuban exiles.

“It’s scary for anybody,” Ms. Perez said.

It’s a vicious cycle that Cuban Americans know all too well. Threats and attacks from communist agents have come in waves over the decades.

She recalled a time in the 1990s when the Castro regime sent an assassin to Miami to kill a member of the Cuban American National Foundation. The target was afforded several days of police protection and the assassin failed. But, Ms. Perez said, the police can’t be everywhere all the time. If they intercept or deter one communist assassin or agitator, the Cuban regime can just send another.

Cuban leader Fidel Castro inaugurates several newly built areas added to an old Havana hospital on 5 June 1989. Castro resigned on Feb. 19, 2008, as president and commander in chief of Cuba. (Rafael Perez/AFP/GettyImages)

In the past several decades. Ms. Perez said the most notable lull in harassment or threats of attack from Cuba’s communist party was during the administration of President George H. W. Bush from 1989 to 1993.

The U.S. State Department said it’s “aware of the list released by the Cuban government.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/16/2024 - 23:40

These Are The Most-Polluted Countries In The World

These Are The Most-Polluted Countries In The World

Almost the entire global population breathes air that exceeds the air quality limits set by the World Health Organization (WHO).

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu maps the world’s most polluted countries according to IQAir, ranked by their annual average PM2.5 concentration (μg/m³) in 2023. The unit μg/m³ refers to micrograms per cubic meter.

What is PM2.5?

PM2.5 refers to fine particulate matter, with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or less, that can travel deep into your lungs and cause health problems.

In 2021, the World Health Organization (WHO) updated its air quality guidelines for PM2.5. The recommended maximum annual average level for PM2.5 is now 5 μg/m³, down from the previous target of 10 μg/m³.

Common sources of PM2.5 pollution include engine exhaust, power plant combustion, smoke from fires, dust, and dirt.

How Does PM2.5 Pollution Affect Humans?

Research published in 2022 from the Air Quality Life Index (AQLI) found that 97.3% of the world’s population is exposed to levels of PM2.5 that exceed the WHO guidelines.

This takes 2.2 years off the global average life expectancy, relative to a world that met the WHO guideline.

In South Asia specifically, the AQLI believes residents could be losing up to 5 years off their lives. The region has been a global hotspot of air pollution for years, home to 37 of the 40 most polluted cities in the world.

Interestingly, fine particulate matter can travel hundreds of kilometers, often crossing national boundaries.

For instance, approximately 30% of air pollution in the Indian state of Punjab originates from neighboring Pakistan. Similarly, an estimated 30% of pollution in Bangladesh’s largest cities is traced back to India.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/16/2024 - 23:20

Biden's New Student Debt Relief Will Add Up To $750 Billion To The Budget Deficit

Biden's New Student Debt Relief Will Add Up To $750 Billion To The Budget Deficit

By The Committee for A Responsible Federal Budget

The Biden Administration recently announced a new plan to cancel student debt for up to 30 million borrowers and released a preliminary rule this morning detailing parts of this plan. The proposal, which is being introduced through the rule making process, would replace the Administration’s initial proposal to cancel between $10,000 and $20,000 per person of debt, which was struck down by the Supreme Court.

Elements of the plan in today’s proposed rule would cost nearly $150 billion, according to the Department of Education. However, this excludes a proposal to allow the Secretary of Education to cancel debt for those facing hardship or likely to default. Including this provision, we estimate the plan could cost $250 billion to $750 billion, depending on how the additional cancellation is designed.

The plan itself has five major components. It would:

  • Cancel accumulated interest for borrowers with balances higher than what they initially borrowed, capped at $20,000 for those in standard repayment and uncapped but restricted to individuals making less than $120,000 annually or couples making under $240,000 enrolled in an income-driven repayment (IDR) plan.

  • Automatically cancel loans for borrowers in standard repayment who would be eligible for cancellation had they applied for programs such as Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) or the new IDR program, Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE).

  • Automatically cancel loans for borrowers who have been repaying undergraduate loans for over 20 years or graduate loans for over 25 years.

  • Cancel debt of those who attended low-financial-value programs, including those that failed accountability measures or were deemed ineligible for federal student aid programs.

  • Forgive debt of borrowers who are “facing hardships” or are likely to default on their loan payments.

The Department of Education has estimated the first four components of the plan would cost $147 billion over a decade, with half the cost stemming from the cancellation of accumulated interest. This is in line with estimates we are currently producing, though well above estimates of $77 billion from the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM). A huge source of uncertainty is how these provisions would interact with existing IDR programs and how much of the debt would otherwise be cancelled under current policy. 

Importantly, today’s rule does not include the Administration’s hardship cancellation plan, which would “authorize the automatic forgiveness of loans for borrowers at a high risk of future default as well as those who show hardship due to other indicators.” 

This is by far the most unclear and potentially the most costly part of their proposal, since cancellation could be both wide-ranging and ongoing. We estimate this proposal could cost between $100 billion and $600 billion over a decade. However, there’s a tremendous amount of uncertainty, with design choices possibly resulting in much lower costs than our range – for example, PWBM estimates this provision would only cost $7 billion. 

It is unclear how the Administration will define hardship, but they discuss 16 possible criteria such as other consumer debt, age, and health care or housing expenses and also declare hardship could be defined based on “any other indicators of hardship identified by the Secretary.” In assessing default risk, the rule allows cancellation for cancellation for those with an 80 percent likelihood of default, as determined by the Secretary. Importantly, over $150 billion of debt is currently in default (and loans in default generally have around a 70 percent recovery rate). We also estimate that a further 6 million borrowers are over 90 days delinquent on their loans, which is another predictor of a high likelihood of default and would further push up the number. The historically high rates of delinquency appear to be related to challenges around restarting student loan repayments last year.

While the default provision would be limited to the next two years under the most recent draft of the proposal, the hardship component has no time limit and thus opens a new venue for a future administration to cancel large amounts of student loan debt. An analysis by FREOPP argues that it could cover over 70 percent of college students. 

In total, our $250 billion to $750 billion estimate for the total cost of the plan would be in line with the cost of the Administration’s $400 billion blanket debt cancellation, which was ruled illegal by the Supreme Court. It would be on top of more than $600 billion of debt cancellation already enacted through unilateral executive action. As we have shown before, these policies would put upward pressure on inflation and interest rates by supporting stronger demand, and much of the benefits would accrue to high-income and highly-educated Americans. In the coming weeks, we will produce further analysis of the Administration’s latest proposal and continue to refine our cost estimates as more data is made available. These analyses will be available at our student debt cancellation resources page.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/16/2024 - 23:00

These Are The Top 10 States By Real GDP Growth

These Are The Top 10 States By Real GDP Growth

Fueled by strong consumer spending and a resilient job market, the U.S. economy expanded faster than expected in 2023, with a real GDP growth rate of 2.5%.

Oil-rich states were among the strongest performers in the country as production boomed. Much of this was due to the war in Ukraine driving up the price of oil, spurring companies to boost output. Other sectors, such as retail trade, also played a key role in driving growth amid robust consumer demand.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, shows the fastest growing states by real GDP, based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Strongest State Economies in 2023

As the world’s largest oil producer, the U.S. hit a historic 12.9 million barrels per day in crude oil production in 2023—more than any other country ever.

Given these tailwinds, the top five fastest-growing states by real GDP in 2023 were all powered by the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector. Below, we show the strongest state economies by real GDP growth last year:

North Dakota witnessed the highest growth, with real GDP rising by 5.9%.

As the third largest oil-producing state, it also has one of the strongest job markets in the country. In February 2024, the state’s unemployment rate was 2.0%, significantly lower than the national average of 3.9%.

Falling in second is Texas, whose economy surged to $2 trillion in inflation-adjusted terms. In 2023, the oil and gas industry generated about $72 million per day in local and state taxes in addition to state royalties. Roughly half of U.S. crude oil exports are shipped from Corpus Christi Bay, a port along the Texas coastline.

As the seventh-fastest growing state, Florida’s economy was largely supported by retail trade, its biggest driver. Moreover, Florida boasted the highest growth rates nationwide in both personal and property income, rising at 7.0% and 8.8%, respectively, over the year.

By contrast, some of the slowest growing states were DelawareMississippi, and New York, each with a real GDP growth rate falling below 1%.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/16/2024 - 22:40

Red States Fight Growing Efforts To Give "Basic Income" Cash To Residents

Red States Fight Growing Efforts To Give "Basic Income" Cash To Residents

By Kevin Hardy of Stateline

South Dakota state Sen. John Wiik likes to think of himself as a lookout of sorts — keeping an eye on new laws, programs and ideas brewing across the states.

“I don’t bring a ton of legislation,” said Wiik, a Republican. “The main thing I like to do is try and stay ahead of trends and try and prevent bad things from coming into our state.”

This session, that meant sponsoring successful legislation banning cities or counties from creating basic income programs, which provide direct, regular cash payments to low-income residents to help alleviate poverty.

While Wiik isn’t aware of any local governments publicly floating the idea in South Dakota, he describes such programs as “bureaucrats trying to hand out checks to make sure that your party registration matches whoever signed the checks for the rest of your life.”

The economic gut punch of the pandemic and related assistance efforts such as the expanded child tax credit popularized the idea of directly handing cash to people in need. Advocates say the programs can be administered more efficiently than traditional government assistance programs, and research suggests they increase not only financial stability but also mental and physical health.

Still, Wiik and other Republicans argue handing out no-strings-attached cash disincentivizes work — and having fewer workers available is especially worrisome in a state with the nation’s second-lowest unemployment rate.

South Dakota is among at least six states where GOP officials have looked to ban basic income programs.

The basic income concept has been around for decades, but a 2019 experiment in Stockton, California, set off a major expansion. There, 125 individuals received $500 per month with no strings attached for two years. Independent researchers found the program improved financial stability and health, but concluded that the pandemic dampened those effects.

GOP lawmakers like Wiik fear that even experimental programs could set a dangerous precedent.

“What did Ronald Reagan say, ‘The closest thing to eternal life on this planet is a government program’?” Wiik said. “So, if you get people addicted to just getting a check from the government, it’s going to be really hard to take that away.”

The debate over basic income programs is likely to intensify as blue state lawmakers seek to expand pilot programs. Minnesota, for example, could become the nation’s first to fund a statewide program. But elected officials in red states are working to thwart such efforts — not only by fighting statewide efforts but also by preventing local communities from starting their own basic income programs.

Democratic governors in Arizona and Wisconsin recently vetoed Republican legislation banning basic income programs.

Last week, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton sued Harris County to block a pilot program that would provide $500 per month to 1,900 low-income people in the state’s largest county, home to Houston.

Paxton, a Republican, argued the program is illegal because it violates a state constitutional provision that says local governments cannot grant public money to individuals.

Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee, a Democrat, called Paxton’s move “nothing more than an attack on local government and an attempt to make headlines.”

Meanwhile, several blue states are pushing to expand these programs.

Washington state lawmakers debated a statewide basic income bill during this year’s short session. And Minnesota lawmakers are debating whether to spend $100 million to roll out one of the nation’s first statewide pilot programs.

“We’re definitely seeing that shift from pilot to policy,” said Sukhi Samra, the director of Mayors for a Guaranteed Income, which formed after the Stockton experiment.

So far, that organization has helped launch about 60 pilot programs across the country that will provide $250 million in unconditional aid, she said.

Despite pushback in some states, Samra said recent polling commissioned by the group shows broad support of basic income programs. And the programs have shown success in supplementing — not replacing — social safety net programs, she said.

The extra cash gives recipients freedom of choice. People can fix a flat tire, cover school supplies or celebrate a child’s birthday for the first time.

“There’s no social safety net program that allows you to do that.” she said. “ … This is an effective policy that helps our families, and this can radically change the way that we address poverty in this country.”

Basic Income Experiments

The proliferation of basic income projects has been closely studied by researchers.

Though many feared that free cash would dissuade people from working, that hasn’t been the case, said Sara Kimberlin, the executive director and senior research scholar at Stanford University’s Center on Poverty and Inequality.

Stanford’s Basic Income Lab has tracked more than 150 basic income pilots across the country. Generally, those offer $500 or $1,000 per month over a short period.

“There isn’t anywhere in the United States where you can live off of $500 a month,” she said. “At the same time, $500 a month really makes a tremendous difference for someone who is living really close to the edge.”

Kimberlin said the research on basic income programs has so far been promising, though it’s unclear how long the benefits may persist once programs conclude. Still, she said, plenty of research shows how critical economic stability in childhood is to stability in adulthood — something both the basic income programs and the pandemic-era child tax credit can address.

Over the past five years, basic income experiments have varied across the country.

Last year, California launched the nation’s first state-funded pilot programs targeting former foster youth.

In Colorado, the Denver Basic Income Project aimed to help homeless individuals. After early successes, the Denver City Council awarded funding late last year to extend that program, which provides up to $1,000 per month to hundreds of participants.

A 2021 pilot launched in Cambridge, Massachusetts, provided $500 a month over 18 months to 130 single caregivers. Research from the University of Pennsylvania found the Cambridge program increased employment, the ability to cover a $400 emergency expense, and food and housing security among participants.

Children in participating families were more likely to enroll in Advanced Placement courses, earned higher grades and had reduced absenteeism.

“It was really reaffirming to hear that when families are not stressed out, they are able to actually do much better,” said Geeta Pradhan, president of the Cambridge Community Foundation, which worked on the project.

Pradhan said basic income programs are part of a national trend in “trust-based philanthropy,” which empowers individuals rather than imposing top-down solutions to fight poverty.

“There is something that I think it does to people’s sense of empowerment, a sense of agency, the freedom that you feel,” she said. “I think that there’s some very important aspects of humanity that are built into these programs.”

While the pilot concluded, the Cambridge City Council committed $22 million in federal pandemic aid toward a second round of funding. Now, nearly 2,000 families earning at or below 250% of the federal poverty level are receiving $500 monthly payments, said Sumbul Siddiqui, a city council member.

Siddiqui, a Democrat, pushed for the original pilot when she was mayor during the pandemic. While she said the program has proven successful, it’s unclear whether the city can find a sustainable source of funding to keep it going long term.

States look to expand pilots

Tomas Vargas Jr. was among the 125 people who benefited from the Stockton, California, basic income program that launched in 2019.

At the time, he heard plenty of criticism from people who said beneficiaries would blow their funds on drugs and alcohol or quit their jobs.

“Off of $500 a month, which amazed me,” said Vargas, who worked part time at UPS.

But he said the cash gave him breathing room. He had felt stuck at his job, but the extra money gave him the freedom to take time off to interview for better jobs.

Unlike other social service programs like food stamps, he didn’t have to worry about losing out if his income went up incrementally. The cash allowed him to be a better father, he said, as well as improved his confidence and mental health.

The experience prompted him to get into the nonprofit sector. Financially stable, he now works at Mayors for a Guaranteed Income.

“The person I was five years ago is not the person that I am now,” he said.

Washington state Sen. Claire Wilson, a Democrat, said basic income is a proactive way to disrupt the status quo maintained by other anti-poverty efforts.

“I have a belief that our systems in our country have never been put in place to get people out of them,” she said. “They kept people right where they are.”

Wilson chairs the Human Services Committee, which considered a basic income bill this session that would have created a pilot program to offer 7,500 people a monthly amount equivalent to the fair market rent for a two-bedroom apartment in their area.

The basic income bill didn’t progress during Washington’s short legislative session this year, but Wilson said lawmakers would reconsider the idea next year. While she champions the concept, she said there’s a lot of work to be done convincing skeptics.

In Minnesota, where lawmakers are considering a $100 million statewide basic income pilot program, some Republicans balked at the concept of free cash and its cost to taxpayers.

“Just the cost alone should be a concern,” Republican state Rep. Jon Koznick said during a committee meeting this month.

State Rep. Athena Hollins, a Democrat who sponsored the legislation, acknowledged the hefty request, but said backers would support a scaled-down version and “thought it was really important to get this conversation started.”

Much of the conversation in committee centered on local programs in cities such as Minneapolis and St. Paul. St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter, a Democrat, told lawmakers the city’s 2020 pilot saw “groundbreaking” results.

After scraping by for years, some families were able to put money into savings for the first time, he said. Families experienced less anxiety and depression. And the pilot disproved the “disparaging tropes” from critics about people living in poverty, the mayor said.

Carter told lawmakers that the complex issue of economic insecurity demands statewide solutions.

“I am well aware that the policy we’re proposing today is a departure from what we’re all used to,” he said. “In fact, that’s one of my favorite things about it.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/16/2024 - 22:20

Where Highly Educated Migrants Come From

Where Highly Educated Migrants Come From

Voters in India are getting set to head to the polls this weekend, in what has been dubbed the world’s biggest election.

Nearly 1 billion people are eligible to determine whether Narendra Modi, leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), will rule the country for a third consecutive term.

Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports that,according to data from a Statista Consumer Insights survey, one of the major challenges facing the country right now  is that of unemployment.

This will be a major sticking point for younger voters.

With often better opportunities abroad, the country is losing valuable talent. And it’s not alone, as OECD data reveals. In fact, in 2015/2016 - the latest year on record - 40 million highly educated migrants were living in OECD member countries. While skilled migrants are certainly welcomed by labor markets in most developed nations especially in times of falling birth rates, the migration of the educated can also have a detrimental effect on their home countries - often described as brain drain.

 Where Highly Educated Migrants Come From | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

As seen in the numbers, China and India had sent the most highly skilled migrants abroad as of the latest available date.

Yet, compared to the size of their populations, the numbers are comparably low. Other major brain drain locations have lost many more talented workers in relative terms, for example the Philippines, Poland, Mexico and Russia.

The Philippines have been known for supplying the world with health care professionals, especially nurses. Many of these highly skilled professionals emigrate to the U.S., forming the third-most important skilled labor emigration corridor of the OECD behind Mexican and Indian migration to the United States.

As a result, 14.3 percent of highly skilled Filipinos had emigrated to the OECD as of 2015/16. This rate is even higher in small or isolated developing economies.

In Caribbean state Guyana, almost 71 percent of the highly educated had left for the OECD, compared with 66 percent in Trinidad and Tobago and 63 percent in Mauritius.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/16/2024 - 22:00

California's 'Rape Club' Federal Prison To Close

California's 'Rape Club' Federal Prison To Close

Authored by Beige Luciano-Adams via The Epoch Times,

Just weeks after a seventh prison employee was sentenced in a wide-ranging sex abuse scandal that has plagued a federal women’s correctional facility in the City of Dublin, about 35 miles southeast of San Francisco, officials announced April 15 they would close the prison.

“The Federal Bureau of Prisons ...  has taken unprecedented steps and provided a tremendous amount of resources to address culture, recruitment and retention, aging infrastructure—and most critical—employee misconduct [at the facility],” Bureau of Prisons Director Collette S. Peters said in a statement.

But such measures, Ms. Peters said, have not been effective, and the prison—the Federal Correctional Institution, Dublin—was not meeting “expected standards.”

Somewhat cryptically, the director indicated the facility’s uncertain future.

“The closure of the institution may be temporary but certainly will result in a mission change,” Ms. Peters said in the statement, offering no further details about whether or when it might reopen.

Politicians and activists lauded the move as a victory in the fight against systemic abuse of incarcerated women.

“Every American deserves basic human rights and dignity within the criminal justice system,” Rep. Judy Chu wrote on social media platform X, suggesting the closure was a “significant step forward in ensuring the Bureau of Prisons provides a safe environment for incarcerated people and staff.”

The abrupt announcement came just as independent oversight was about to begin.

Last month, a U.S. District judge issued a scathing order, calling the prison a “dysfunctional mess,” and appointed a special master to implement reforms.

The years-long scandal at Dublin, which included high-profile lawsuits, investigations, and several turnovers of management, was a public relations nightmare for the Washington D.C.-based Bureau of Prisons—and points to a broader problem of chronic sexual abuse of female inmates in the federal system.

In 2022, an investigative arm of the Department of Homeland Security reviewed “non-public” whistleblower documents regarding the prison bureau, as well as interviews with more than two dozen senior leaders within the agency, whistleblowers, and survivors, and came to “deeply disturbing” conclusions.

Employees had sexually abused female prisoners in at least two-thirds of federal prisons nationwide over the previous decade, and officials had failed to detect, deter, and stop recurring abuse at several institutions, according to the investigation.

But even in that context, the low-security Dublin prison—which houses 505 inmates at its main facility and 101 at an adjacent minimum security camp including those convicted of drug and other nonviolent crimes—stood out.

In 2022, former Dublin Warden Ray J. Garcia, who federal investigators said “oversaw a toxic culture [at the facility],” was convicted by a jury of sexually abusive conduct against three female victims and sentenced to 70 months in prison. A former chaplain, James Highhouse, pleaded guilty to sexual assault and lying to authorities and was sentenced to 84 months in prison.

Last year, Dublin abuse survivors filed a class action lawsuit against guards and officials, alleging abuse continued even after earlier charges were filed.

The lawsuit claimed the nature of the exploitation was systemic, implicating the entire Bureau of Prisons (BOP) system in which “officers at every level literally watched as other officers assaulted incarcerated people and helped to keep survivors silent through retaliation,” a lawyer representing the eight clients in the suit told local media.

Bureau of Prisons officials said the “deactivation” of the Dublin facility is currently ongoing, but did not give a completion date. No employees will lose their jobs as a result of the closure, and inmates currently housed at the prison will be transferred to other facilities.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/16/2024 - 17:00

WTI Rally Stalls On Crude Build, White House Hints At SPR Release

WTI Rally Stalls On Crude Build, White House Hints At SPR Release

Oil prices fell for the second day in a row (albeit very modestly today) as the 'WW3-on / WW3-off' headline-swings (supply) are wearing on traders, and less-and-less dovish expectations for The Fed weigh on demand expectations

"Oil traders are hunkering down as bears are increasingly afraid to bet on lower prices," Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group, told MarketWatch.

At the same time, "bulls are pulling in their horns until they get clarity on what the Israeli response may be."

Oil traders are waiting to see how the "diplomatic push for Israel to show restraint pays off," said Flynn.

Traders are expecting another crude build (the fourth in a row, albeit small), and a return to gasoline draws...

API

  • Crude +4.09mm (+600k exp)

  • Cushing -169k

  • Gasoline -2.51mm (-1.0mm exp)

  • Distillates -427k (-400k exp)

API reported a much bigger than expected crude build (and offset that with a large gasoline draw)...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was hovering around $85.3 ahead of the API print and was thoroughly unimpressed by the mixed inventory data...

However, Joe and Jerome have a problem as pump-prices just keep going higher...

Source: Bloomberg

President Biden “wants to keep the price of gasoline affordable, and we’ll do what we can to make sure that that happens,” White House senior adviser John Podesta says at the BloombergNEF Summit in New York, responding to a question about a potential release of oil from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve amid forecasts that already rising prices at the pump will spike this summer.

  • JOE BIDEN'S APPROVAL RATING FALLS TO 38% FROM 40% IN MARCH - REUTERS/IPSOS POLL

Source: Bloomberg

Who could have seen that coming?

'Strategic' - "you keep using that word... I do not think it means what you think it does."

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/16/2024 - 16:40

The Fundamental Unraveling Of America

The Fundamental Unraveling Of America

Authored by Albin Sadar via American Greatness,

By now, it must be overwhelmingly apparent to every American citizen that what candidate Barack Obama promised on the campaign trail back in 2008 has come to pass. Obama touted a “fundamental transformation of America” if elected president and, once elected, he proceeded to accomplish that one huge goal.

It can certainly be argued that the country experienced a slow boiling of the frog during the eight years of Obama’s presidency and that, during that period, the pot neither got to boil too long nor did the frog feel the heat intensely enough to hop out. Hillary Clinton was anointed by the Democrats to follow Obama to continue the unraveling of America’s constitutional republic, replacing it with their own interpretation of a “democracy.”

But somehow, out of nowhere, a wrecking ball named Donald J. Trump collided with the original fundamental-transformation plan. However, that, as we all experienced, was only a temporary setback. Once the 2020 election was successfully rigged and stolen and a hand-puppet-Biden government was installed, Obama and his global handlers continued stirring and reheating the pot to the required boiling point.

As it turned out, this time around, turning up the heat also necessitated putting a lid on the pot because there was a real chance that the frog might finally catch on and attempt to jump out.

So, where are we now?

The pot continues to frantically boil, with the frog finally awakening to its fate - but trapped inside the pot.

And the only one capable of removing the lid is that same old why-won’t-he-just-go-away-already Trump.

Even with the onslaught of tactics straight out of the Jussie Smollett playbook (i.e., if you can’t find a crime, make one up), resulting in New York- and DC-style “fair” trials and verdicts, Trump continues to generate his own heat, resulting in the heads of Democrats boiling—and sometimes even exploding.

What is it about Trump and, more importantly, about the movement that he has inspired? One could say that the MAGA movement is the Tea Party supercharged. The latter was pushback against Obama’s early years in office, with a large portion of the country saying we see what “fundamental transformation” really means—pitting poor against rich, black against white, women against men, children against parents—and we say these are not the ideals upon which our country was founded nor for which it fought.

Can anyone stand in a cemetery and thoughtfully observe rows upon rows of simple, small, white crosses heading hundreds of graves which mark fallen soldiers and not reflect upon their noble sacrifices? Did these overwhelmingly young men and women not go off to war to fight tyranny overseas to preserve the God-given freedoms we peacefully enjoy here at home? What would any of them say today about their sacrifices? Would they really have gone off to fight to preserve the unraveled, fundamentally- transformed country in which we now find ourselves?

A country of:

  • wide-open borders, allowing an overwhelming influx of unvetted foreigners, along with human traffickers, drug-pushers, killer gangs, and dangerous diseases,

  • males claiming to be females to win swimming meets and track races against girls,

  • graphic sex literature being made available to kindergarten and young elementary school children,

  • boys and girls told they can medically and surgically change their sex if it “feels right,” even without parental consent,

  • Election Day becoming Election Season, where one party can keep counting ballots until they have manufactured their desired outcome

  • (and to round out this partial list),

  • vilifying, even jailing, the opposition party with whom your party disagrees,

Whenever Democrats and the far left in general talk about Trump supporters, they always sneer when saying the name “MAGA.” In other words, they never say the words for which the letters refer. Why not? They do not want people to hear that the opposition to what their leftist views are doing to this country comes from people who want to “make America great again.”

If you love this country, why would you not want to see it great, now and in the future? And the opposite is also true. If you do not love this country, why would you not want to change it or progress in a whole other direction, thus the need to manufacture a transformation?

When you marry someone, after you say, “I do,” do you then say, “Now that I have you, I want you to transform, to be a totally different person? I don’t love you per se; I love the person I can now turn you into.”

If you don’t love this country and don’t want to leave it, you will stay and fundamentally transform it. And to do so, you would have to unravel the very foundations upon which the country was built. Unravel the unity of We the People; unravel the belief of Nature and Nature’s God; unravel limited government—since these three principles alone are key to the true freedom made possible within self government.

This year’s election is our final wake-up call.

Good men and women need to be ever-vigilant to make sure that the Democrats, the Deep State, the RINOs, and the globalists do not have even the slightest chance to solidify their scheme to fundamentally transform this great nation by completely unraveling its foundations.

*  *  *

A version of this article appeared previously at AmericanThinker.com.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/16/2024 - 16:20

Dollar & Yields Soar As Fed-Fears Trump WW3-Worries

Dollar & Yields Soar As Fed-Fears Trump WW3-Worries

Mixed data overnight out of China (GDP beat, Retail sales & Industrial production miss) was matched by an equally divergent day of macro in the US with ugly housing data but strong industrial production, but once again the markets were ping-ponged by Fed fears (rate-cuts-off - Fed Vice-Chair Jefferson and Powell both sang from the same 'higher for longer' hymnsheet with the latter finally admitting that "recent [inflation] data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that is likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence") and MidEast tensions (WW3-on, but not yet - Israeli war cabinet plan is 'keep Iran guessing').

All of which pushed 2024 rate-cut expectations lower in the US...

Source: Bloomberg

In fact, the majority of investors now see 2 rate-cuts this year...

The odds of a June rate- cut have tumbled to just 15%...

Source: Bloomberg

...and 2025 rate-cut expectations plunged today - in a crescendo-like surge in volume that suggests stop-outs... (h/t @EdBolingbroke)

Source: Bloomberg

...and pushed the 2Y yield back above 5.0% for the first time since November...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were 5-6bps higher overall today (together) but on the week, for now, the short-end is slightly outperforming...

Source: Bloomberg

In fact, it's been a wild ride for all yields...

Stocks were volatile today amid the surge in yields and Powell's comments, with Small Caps lagging in the red along with a small loss for the S&P and Nasdaq unch. The last minute saw a big sell program hit to ruin most people's day...

Goldman's trading desk summed it up as follows: "Overall feels quiet though market volumes look elevated...skewed around -3% better for sale with LO’s leading more of the supply. "

MS rallied on earnings but BAC did not, with C catching down to GS...

Source: Bloomberg

MAG7 stocks went nowhere today...

Source: Bloomberg

Month-to-date, there seems like differentiation between what's being sold - Defensives and Cyclicals both down equally...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar was the only other notable mover - rising for the fifth straight day to fresh highs since November - forming a 'Golden Cross' (50DMA crossing above the 200DMA)

Source: Bloomberg

Oil ended unchanged...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold managed small gains...

Source: Bloomberg

...ending at a new record closing high...

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was oddly quiet...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, Joe and Jerome have a problem...

Source: Bloomberg

Get back to work Mr. SPR!

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/16/2024 - 16:00

Aussie Govt Orders Facebook And X To Remove Muslim Knife Attack Video

Aussie Govt Orders Facebook And X To Remove Muslim Knife Attack Video

Parishioners and live stream audience members for the Christ The Good Shepherd Church in Sydney, Australia were enjoying a sermon by popular conservative Bishop Mar Mari Emmanuel when a young male Muslim assailant entered the church and stabbed him repeatedly with a knife.  The live stream clip was immediately shared far and wide on social media with X and Facebook being the easiest sites to view the video.

Bishop Mar Mari Emmanuel is a leader of the Assyrian Orthodox sect who has a global following. He has expressed stalwart conservative views on Islam, the LGBT community, and was vocal in his sermons against lockdowns and vaccinations during COVID-19.  Four other member of the church were injured while subduing the attacker; the young man also reportedly cut off some of his own fingers during the struggle. 

The Australia government through their "E-Safety Commissioner" has voiced concerns over the spread of the clip and has "ordered" Facebook and X to remove if from public access within 24 hours on the grounds that it will "make people emotional" and "cause disharmony."  How much power Australia's E-Safety Commissioner actually has to follow through on her threats remains to be seen. 

The identity of the attacker has yet to be revealed by authorities, but he is allegedly 16-years old and was recorded smiling after stabbing the Bishop while praising Allah.  Once again, westerners have been treated to a lesson in cultural diversity. 

The motivation behind Australia's effort to have the event removed from social media is blatantly transparent.  If the attack involved anyone other than a Muslim it is unlikely they would have an interest in censoring the video.  However, such horrifying incidents involving potential migrants create growing opposition to the open border policies of western progressive governments.  So, rather than addressing the root of the problem (mutually exclusive cultures), officials have decided it's better to hide it instead.  

Public outcry over the attack has led to protests in the streets of Sydney with many Australians becoming angry and tired of the special protections allotted to people with the "right beliefs" and ethnic background.  To their credit, the Sidney police have labeled the stabbing a terrorist attack with adequate evidence of religious motivation.  This, though, does not help if the attack is simply allowed to fade into the background until the next time the third world decides to force itself onto the western public. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/16/2024 - 15:45

Democracy Dies In Primaries

Democracy Dies In Primaries

Authored by Nick Troiano via RealClear Wire,

Hillary Clinton recently told voters unhappy with the two 2024 presidential candidates this year: “Get over yourself.” With that comment, she not only dismissed the tens of millions of voters who had no say in choosing Biden and Trump, but also the two-thirds of voters overall who are frustrated with a rematch they do not want.

There’s an exhausted majority of voters eager for something different, yet our broken system simply doesn’t allow it. Look no further than No Labels, whose attempt to field a bipartisan presidential ticket collapsed because no candidate was willing to be a “spoiler” in an election system that disadvantages, even prevents, new competition.

The real problem isn’t who we’re electing, it’s how we’re electing them. 

Not only did the vast majority of us have no say in choosing the two presidential candidates, a similarly tiny fraction of voters is deciding most of Congress. So far in 2024, nearly a third of U.S. House seats have already been decided by only 3% of eligible votes in the eight states that have held primaries for offices other than the presidency. In 2022, 8% of voters elected 83% of Congress.

Primaries have long been low-turnout affairs dominated by the extremes of both parties. But shockingly, millions of voters don’t have the right to vote in them – even though their taxpayer dollars fund them. In 22 states this year, 23.5 million independent voters are disenfranchised by closed primaries for president or state offices. 

Nationwide, there are more independents than Democrats or Republicans. Nearly half of veterans identify as politically independent, as do a majority of young people. Because of our primary system, we’re telling those who fought for our country and those who are the future of our country that their voices don’t matter.

The reason our elected leaders don’t seem to represent us is because, quite literally, most of us don’t elect them. 

How do we fix this broken system? With two powerful changes: One, allow all eligible voters – including independents – to cast ballots for any candidate, regardless of party, in every taxpayer-funded election. Two, require candidates to secure a majority of votes to win an election. 

Consider how the 2024 election might have been different had these principles been in effect. First, had the GOP required a majority winner in the 2016 primaries, Donald Trump might not have become the nominee with only a plurality (45%) of the vote. Second, without Trump’s victory that year, there would likely be no Biden rematch in 2024, and therefore no efforts to run candidates like Dean Phillips off primary ballots. Third, majority-winner elections using ranked choice voting would level the playing field for independent and third party candidates rather than dismissing them out of hand as spoilers.

Primary elections have evolved dramatically over the past century – leaving behind party bosses nominating candidates in private, smoke-filled rooms to embrace the ballot box. It’s time to continue that great American tradition. 

Nearly half a dozen states have already adopted some version of these two principles for either their presidential or statewide elections – a move that is supported by nearly three in four voters nationwide.

In 2020, Alaska voters approved an all-candidate primary that advances four candidates to the general election, where an instant runoff produces a majority winner. In 2022, this reform led to the election of a conservative governor, moderate Republican senator, and moderate Democratic representative in 2022 – all on the same ballot. Overall, the state saw a 60% increase in the number of voters who cast ballots in competitive elections where their vote actually mattered.

California’s top-two primary system – enacted more than a decade ago under then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger – has also infused more competition into its elections than would otherwise exist, meaning more Californians are casting meaningful votes.  

This fall, citizen initiatives to open primaries are underway in Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana and South Dakota because voters want a functional, representative government.

The way we “get over” the frustrations of our current presidential rematch is by following the example of voters in these states who are demanding a better system that lives up to our nation’s ideals as a Democratic republic. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/16/2024 - 15:25

Blackstone CEO Jumps On 'The Next AI Trade' 

Blackstone CEO Jumps On 'The Next AI Trade' 

US power grid regulators and utilities are warning about energy shortfalls. Projections for US electricity demand growth over the next five years have doubled from about one year ago, primarily because of the expected explosion of artificial intelligence data centers, federally subsidized manufacturing plants, and the government-fueled electric vehicle transition. 

Source: NERC - 2022 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (as of December-2022). Grid Strategies - The Era of Flat Power Demand is Over (as of December-2023).

In recent months, Wall Street has received the memo about the tidal wave of new electricity demand from data centers powering technology like generative AI. We recently outlined to readers investment opportunities in powering up America for the digital age in "The Next AI Trade."

On Tuesday, Blackstone Chief Executive Officer Steve Schwarzman appeared to have also received the memo as Wall Street whistles the same tune about the AI boom threatening to overload the nation's power grid and the urgent need for an upgrade. 

Schwarzman told the audience at the Asia Pacific Financial and Innovation Symposium in Melbourne that a massive "land rush" is underway to build AI data centers.  

"This is like something I've never seen," he said via webcast, who was quoted by Bloomberg, adding, "The amount of money being invested in this area is breathtaking. It's happening now all over the world."

The co-founder and chairman of the world's largest alternative asset manager warned, "Different states in the US are starting to run out of electricity" and "the lack of capacity in the electric grids in the industrial world with AI and EVs is creating enormous investment opportunities."

In 2021, Blackstone purchased QTS Realty Trust, a company with more than 25 data centers in its portfolio across North America and Europe, for $10 billion. 

"You'll be able to create 20% returns building these data centers with 30-year contracts," he said, adding, "This is pretty amazing."

Schwarzman should also consider investment opportunities in the nuclear power plant space. Last month, we showed how a nuclear renaissance is underway in a note titled "In Historic Reversal, US To Restart A Shut Down Nuclear Power Plant For The First Time Ever." 

In "The Next AI Trade," we explain what equity exposure is needed to capitalize on powering up America for the digital age. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/16/2024 - 15:00

Pages