Stop Imagining Dystopia: We Can Create A Garden Of Eden Future

Authored by Mollie Engelhart via The Epoch Times,

Look around at the stories we’re told about the future—on television, in movies, in books. Almost all of them are dystopian. Controlled cities, collapsing ecosystems, machines overtaking humans. Positive visions are so rare they feel almost radical. What if that’s not accidental? What if our thoughts, speech, beliefs, and actions—all of which shape the reality we live in—are being coached toward imagining collapse?

When we are constantly fed visions of destruction, it narrows the scope of what we think is possible.

And when we can’t imagine anything beyond dystopia, we stop building toward anything better.

When I first understood the power of regenerative agriculture, something shifted.

For the first time in years, I felt genuine hope.

That hope was strong enough to push me to change my entire life.

I left behind comfort and convenience and stepped into farming. It did not happen overnight, and I had no idea how difficult it would be. But here I am, living a life for a better future for my children—and doing it publicly so others can see it’s possible.

We do not have to allow our food supply to be consolidated into the hands of a few corporations.

We do not have to be corralled into “15-minute cities” or plugged into machines. And we do not have to worship efficiency when it leaves us with less family, higher costs, and no time.

We can choose another path.

But it starts with refusing to accept the stories of inevitable collapse we are being sold.

At my ranch, guests come to spend the night in one of our tiny homes, to enjoy a meal at the restaurant, or to walk the land with me on a farm tour. They look out on fields teeming with life in ways most modern farms are not. They see animals, soil, and people in right relationship. They taste food that was grown a few steps away, and they begin to understand the difference. They carry that vision home with them—the ripple effect of realizing something else is possible.

That is why I invite people to stop rehearsing dystopia and start imagining futures of abundance. A future where the American farm is restored. Where our soil and water are alive and clean. Where our food system nourishes our bodies instead of depleting them.

I see movies like “The Terminator” as a warning—but a warning nobody is heeding. Instead of paying attention, we rush to connect our minds to chips and automate every corner of life, pretending those stories were just fiction. And efficiency, which is constantly sold to us as salvation, has become its own trap. In a world where everything is more efficient than ever before, why are we busier, more stressed, and stretched thinner than ever—like rats in a wheel just trying to pay the bills? Shouldn’t efficiency bring costs down and free up more of our time? Instead, the opposite has happened. As machines and systems become more efficient, human life becomes more expensive. Families have less time together. Children are raised by screens. People are burned out, isolated, and exhausted. Efficiency without wisdom doesn’t free us; it enslaves us.

The question people always ask is, how do we do this? How do we actually build a different future?

There is no single answer.

But every one of us has the opportunity to co-create that future and take steps toward it. And all of those small steps, combined, can create a grand shift. Some will buy land and return to an agrarian lifestyle. Others will commit to buying only from local farms and eating the “small farm diet.” Some will use their influence to shift culture in that direction. Others will use their money to help entrepreneurs start businesses that move the needle. Every action has a reaction. Every reaction has a ripple effect. And we the people have the power—if we wield it with our dollars, with our minds, and with our words.

It is time to remember who we are—not controllers of the Earth, and not cogs in a machine, but caretakers of a garden.

We can choose a future that is abundant, human, and aligned with nature. Not a dystopia, but something more like the Garden of Eden. Let’s stop merely imagining futures of abundance—and start building them together.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/27/2025 - 23:25

Federal Government To Take Over DC's Union Station

Federal officials will take over the management of Washington’s Union Station, which Amtrak now runs.

Amtrak is a federally chartered corporation operating as a for-profit entity, with the U.S. government as its controlling shareholder.

As Jackson Richman reports for The Epoch Times, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced the takeover during an event celebrating the launch of Amtrak’s NextGen Acela trains.

“He wants Union Station to be beautiful again,” Duffy said of President Donald Trump.

“He wants transit to be safe again, and he wants our nation’s capital to be great again.”

Duffy said that the move is not a power play, noting that the Department of Transportation has owned Union Station since the early 1980s.

“We’ve always had it, but we think that we can manage the property better, bring in more tenants, bring in more revenue,” he said.

“And that revenue is going to allow us to make investments in this beautiful building. It needs investments.

“It’s been, I think, neglected for decades, and it’s showing its age. And again, we want to make this place beautiful, and the premier train station, not just in America, but the premier train station in the world. And that takes money.”

Amtrak introduced its new line of Acela trains, which are high-speed and travel across the northeast United States.

“The launch of the new Acela is a critical starting point as we work to improve travel for millions of Americans,” U.S. Deputy Secretary of Transportation Steve Bradbury said in a statement.

“Our nation’s capital should be putting our best foot forward.”

Amtrak President Roger Harris said,:

“Acela is synonymous with American high-speed trains, and today marks a new era of next-generation service,“ adding that ”the future of high-speed rail starts now.”

Likewise, Amtrak Board Chair Tony Coscia said in a statement:

“From the moment our guests step onboard, they’ll feel the difference of a NextGen Acela train thanks to a more modern, premium, and elevated experience.

“We are grateful for Secretary Duffy and Deputy Secretary Bradbury’s support on the project, and for helping it get over the finish line so Northeast Corridor residents and visitors can enjoy a whole new way to travel.”

National Guard troops have been stationed outside Union Station, which is close to the Capitol, as the Trump administration has looked to crack down on crime in the District of Columbia.

This has included a federal takeover of the Metropolitan Police Department.

Duffy said robberies are down 52 percent in the district, while carjackings are down 38 percent. Overall, he said, violent crime has decreased by 40 percent.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/27/2025 - 23:00

The Endgame Of The Ukraine War: Two Possible Scenarios

Authored by Prof. Ruel F. Pepa via GlobalResearch.ca,

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has captured the attention of the entire world, drawing concern, debate, and urgency from policymakers, analysts, and citizens alike.

Despite widespread awareness and ongoing efforts to seek a peaceful resolution, the ultimate outcome of this war remains shrouded in uncertainty. As the fighting persists and the stakes continue to rise, it becomes crucial to carefully examine the possible trajectories that could lead to the war’s conclusion.

In doing so, two stark and contrasting scenarios stand out as the most plausible, each representing a radically different path forward.

These scenarios are not merely hypothetical; they carry profound implications not only for Ukraine and its immediate neighbors but also for the broader stability of Europe, the security of NATO countries, and the global geopolitical order. Understanding these divergent possibilities is essential for anticipating future developments and for shaping diplomatic and strategic responses aimed at preventing further escalation or catastrophe.

Scenario One: Acknowledgment of Defeat and Surrender by the West

The first possibility hinges on a sobering and potentially unsettling reality: the Western alliance of the United Kingdom, the European Union, NATO, and the United States should finally recognize the reality that they have tragically lost the fight against Russia in Ukraine. This recognition would not be made lightly; rather, it would be the result of a combination of factors such as prolonged conflict, mounting casualties, significant resource depletion, and diplomatic fatigue that have eroded Western resolve and capacity to sustain their current level of support. Ultimately, this scenario would necessitate a formal acknowledgment of defeat, leading to a strategic and possibly humiliating surrender, signaling an end to their worthless military and political efforts to oppose Russian advances.

Such an outcome implies that the West’s military interventions, economic sanctions, and diplomatic efforts have failed to change the fundamental dynamics on the ground. The prolonged conflict, with its heavy toll on both human lives and national resources, would have culminated in a consensus that further confrontation is futile or counterproductive. Recognizing defeat would most likely lead to negotiations, compromises, and concessions that could reshape the territorial and political landscape of the region. This could include the recognition of Russian-controlled territories as part of Russia, or a negotiated settlement that cedes significant influence to Moscow.

This scenario would also entail a vital shift in regional alliances and borders, marking the end of Ukraine’s aspirations for full integration into Western institutions. It would result in a realignment of security arrangements and a recalibration of Western policies towards Russia, which would finally acknowledge Russia’s renewed regional importance and influence. Ultimately, this outcome would bring an end to active hostilities and redefine the balance of power in Europe and beyond. The global order would see a shift towards a more multipolar world, where Russia’s enhanced position influences international diplomacy and security policies for years to come.

Scenario Two: A Devastating Russian Non-Nuclear Strike

The second more provocative and alarming possibility involves Russia resorting to the use of its advanced non-nuclear weapon systems, specifically the deployment of the non-nuclear version of the Oreshnik missile system, targeting Ukraine and one aggressive NATO member country such as Germany, France, Poland, or the UK, thereby achieving a decisive and devastating victory over western aggression. This aggressive attack would be designed to inflict maximum destruction and psychological shock.

This scenario assumes that barring the possibility of the West’s surrender, Russia’s only remaining option is to escalate the conflict by deploying such a formidable weapon to indiscriminately obliterate Ukrainian infrastructure and military targets. The use of a weapon like the Oreshnik which is indubitably recognized as a highly destructive missile capable of delivering a significant payload over long distances would mark a new and dangerous phase in the conflict, aimed at delivering a crushing blow to Ukraine’s military capacity and civilian infrastructure.

The implications of such an act are profoundly chilling. It would signal a willingness by Russia to cross the threshold into large-scale destruction, possibly as a show of strength or as a means to force Western powers into concessions.

Importantly, Russia’s use of such devastating weaponry is intended not only to break Ukraine’s resistance but also to test the resolve and limits of Western alliances. It will serve as a strategic warning, demonstrating that Russia is willing to unleash destruction on a scale that could also threaten member states or their interests, thereby challenging the post-Cold War security architecture of Europe.

Crucially, such a strike on a NATO country could absolutely trigger a wave of terror and paralysis across Europe. The severity and immediacy of the attack is aimed at inducing extreme fear among European nations, potentially leading to a strategic stalemate where retaliation becomes unthinkable, either due to the devastating consequences or the chaos that ensues.

This scenario hinges on the premise that Russia’s willingness to escalate to such an extent would effectively paralyze NATO and European responses, thereby ending the war through sheer overwhelming force and fear. Simply put, such an ultimate and decisive attack would cancel all the risks of hostility escalation and broader conflict thereby inaugurating and guaranteeing global peace and security once and for all.

Potential Outcomes of the Ukraine Conflict: Pathways Toward Peace or Catastrophe

Both scenarios underscore the deeply complex and perilous nature of the Ukraine conflict, illuminating the wide spectrum of potential outcomes and the profound risks involved.

The first scenario suggests a geopolitical recognition of defeat by the West, i.e., the EU, the UK, the US, and NATO, that leads to negotiations, compromise, and a reconfiguration of regional and global power dynamics. Such an outcome will pave the way for a new geopolitical order based on diplomacy, stability, and the respect of national sovereignty thereby ending the hostilities through a negotiated settlement that preserves some degree of stability and prevents further bloodshed. This scenario emphasizes the importance of diplomatic engagement, patience, and international cooperation in steering the conflict toward a peaceful resolution, even amid ongoing hostilities.

In stark contrast, the second scenario presents a terrifying and catastrophic possibility: that the conflict escalates into extreme destruction through heightened military measures, including the use of devastating conventional or non-nuclear weapons. This path would likely result in widespread demolition and massive civilian casualties. The prospect of such escalation underscores the dangerous brinkmanship and the extremely damaging potential inherent in modern warfare, where the line between conventional and catastrophic action can become dangerously blurred. It highlights the urgent need for restraint, diplomatic dialogue, and international mechanisms to prevent the conflict from spiraling into a devastating, uncontrolled escalation that could have global repercussions.

Conclusion

As the war continues to unfold, the international community must grapple with these stark and contrasting possibilities, each representing a different endgame with profound and far-reaching consequences. The first offers a hopeful vision rooted in diplomacy and the potential for a peaceful resolution, while the second serves as a grim reminder of how escalation can lead to catastrophic destruction. The challenge lies in guiding the conflict toward the most desirable outcome: one that minimizes human suffering and preserves regional and global stability.

Ultimately, the hope remains for a peaceful resolution, ideally achieved through the formal surrender of the obvious losers, i.e., the EU, the UK, the US, and NATO, thereby preventing the horrific outcome envisioned in the second scenario. Such a resolution would require steadfast diplomatic efforts, international cooperation, and a shared commitment to peace. It is essential that all parties prioritize negotiations and constructive engagement to avoid the devastating consequences of escalation, ensuring that the conflict ends not in destruction and chaos, but in a way that safeguards human lives, regional stability, and global security. Only through such concerted efforts can the international community hope to steer the course of this conflict away from catastrophe and toward a sustainable peace.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/27/2025 - 22:35

Las Vegas Tourism Falters As Prices Explode And Amenities Disappear

Over twenty years ago Las Vegas was still known as a place where you could lose your shirt gambling, but at least all the basic amenities made a weekend vacation cheap and fun.  Low cost hotel rooms, free transportation between casinos, complimentary drinks and cheap buffets are all disappearing; replaced by outrageous markups on even the smallest items.   

In the past, casinos and clubs focused on luring in tourists with subsidized comforts and making most of their profits through the gaming tables and slots.  Today, everything has changed.  Room prices have doubled in the span of five years.  A morning bagel can cost upwards of $12 or higher.  Cokes?  At least $4 per can.  Over $70 for valet parking.  The once legendary $10 all you can eat Vegas buffets?  All gone.  In some hotels a bottle of water at the minibar costs $26. 

Sure there's inflation, but it's also a systematic swindle.  What's the point of going to Vegas to empty your wallet on Black Jack and Roulette when the casinos won't even keep you fed?  The basic model for the city's economy has been turned upside-down and companies are trying to drain tourist cash through a nickel-and-dime model on comforts they can get at home for 10% of the cost.       

The result has been an 11% collapse in tourism year-over-year and Las Vegas officials are worried. 

Visitor volume and consumer spending are tumbling in America’s casino capital, and the local unemployment rate is hovering among the highest in the country for big metro areas.  Democrats in Vegas blame Donald Trump's mass deportation efforts and tariff's for "causing travel anxiety".  There's no tangible data to support these accusations.  As has been the case since the end of 2020, Democrat run cities suffer from exorbitant price increases across the board but somehow it's all Trump's fault. 

Not long ago average Vegas visitors had a wide range of incomes and many lower income tourists came to the area as an affordable alternative to overseas travel.  Today, the median income for tourists is over $93,000 a year; more than twice the national average.

While this might help to keep out the riffraff common to more affordable industries like cruise lines, it also deters the more ideal middle class demographic that was once the driver of the Vegas economy. 

Political leaders are now looking to a new bipartisan bill, the Apex Area Technical Corrections Act, to save the day. Signed into law by President Donald Trump, it could pave the way for economic diversification.  It allows federal land to be transitioned to industrial use, potentially bringing warehousing, manufacturing, and other factories to the North Las Vegas area.  

In any case, the old days of low cost Vegas comfort are gone, replaced by an inflationary fear and loathing that probably won't be undone for many years.  American havens for the middle class are drying up fast.    

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/27/2025 - 22:10

Christian Priests & Nuns Refuse To Leave Gaza City

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Christian priests and nuns based in Gaza City will remain to help displaced people sheltering at two churches despite the Israeli military’s plans to conquer the city, the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem and the Greek Orthodox Patriarchate of Jerusalem said in a joint statement on Tuesday.

“At the time of this statement, evacuation orders were already in place for several neighborhoods in Gaza City. Reports of heavy bombardment continue to be received. There is more destruction and death in a situation that was already dramatic before this operation. It seems that the Israeli government’s announcement that ‘the gates of hell will open’ is indeed taking on tragic forms,” the Patriarchates said.

Via Anadolu Agency

Hundreds of civilians have been sheltering at the Holy Family Catholic Church in Gaza City and the nearby Saint Porphyrius Orthodox Church. Both churches have come under Israeli attack, including the recent IDF tank shelling of the Holy Family Church, which killed three Christians and injured Father Gabriel Romanelli, a Catholic priest from Argentina.

Nuns with the Missionaries of Charity, a congregation founded by Mother Teresa, have had a presence in Gaza since the 1970s and have taken care of disabled Palestinians at the church since well before October 7, 2023.

“Like other residents of Gaza City, the refugees living in the facilities will have to decide according to their conscience what they will do. Among those who have sought shelter within the walls of the compounds, many are weakened and malnourished due to the hardships of the last months,” the Patriarchates said.

“Leaving Gaza City and trying to flee to the south would be nothing less than a death sentence. For this reason, the clergy and nuns have decided to remain and continue to care for all those who will be in the compounds,” they added.

Israel’s plans for the takeover of Gaza City involve the forced displacement of more than one million Palestinians sheltering there. The idea is to push them into southern Gaza, and from there, the Israeli government wants to pressure them to leave Gaza altogether, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli officials have made clear their ultimate goal is the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian territory.

According to numbers from the UN, at least 11,600 Palestinians have been displaced from north Gaza to southern Gaza since the Israeli military announced its plans to take over Gaza City and ramped up airstrikes and shelling of the city.

The Christian quarter of Gaza is under heavy attack from the nation state of Israel as of yesterday. The Al-Zaytoun neighborhood holds the last Christians alive in Gaza (almost entirely Orthodox and Catholics) and the last remaining Orthodox Church. Please pray. pic.twitter.com/hMsOp0VdHZ

— Theophan (@uncreated_light) August 25, 2025

“This is not the right way. There is no reason to justify the deliberate and forcible mass displacement of civilians,” the Patriarchates said. “It is time to end this spiral of violence, to put an end to war and to prioritize the common good of the people. There has been enough devastation, in the territories and in people’s lives. There is no reason to justify keeping civilians as prisoners and hostages in dramatic conditions. It is now time for the healing of the long-suffering families on all sides.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/27/2025 - 21:45

Florida Weigh Station Immigration Checks Serve As National Blueprint For Addressing Migrant CDL Crisis

About two weeks after an illegal alien truck driver made an illegal U-turn on a Florida highway, killing three Americans, Florida officials - responding to uproar from residents across the state and across the nation - will begin rolling out federal immigration checkpoints at all agricultural inspection stations. The move serves as a blueprint for other states to confront the migrant CDL crisis, which is not only a public safety threat but also a national security threat. Thank the Biden-Harris regime for the migrant CDL crisis that is killing Americans.

"There's no telling how many illegal aliens are in this country driving large commercial vehicles and putting American families in a safety risk every single day," Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier told reporters Monday during a press conference in Live Oak, a city north of Gainesville.

Uthmeier said his team is sending a letter to the U.S. Department of Transportation and the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, urging the Trump administration to revoke the CDL license program authority and strip related federal funding from California and Washington. We have warned for many months that these sanctuary states handed out CDLs to migrants "like candy." 

"States like California and Washington ignored the rules, gave an illegal alien a license to drive a 40-ton truck, and three people are dead as a result," Uthmeier said, adding, "In response, we're supporting our Agricultural Law Enforcement and state police to ramp up inspections at state entry-points for illegal aliens who may be operating large trucks using out-of-state driver's licenses."

Last Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio took decisive action to address the non-domiciled CDL crisis by "pausing all issuance of worker visas for commercial truck drivers" (read the note here).

Effective immediately we are pausing all issuance of worker visas for commercial truck drivers.

The increasing number of foreign drivers operating large tractor-trailer trucks on U.S. roads is endangering American lives and undercutting the livelihoods of American truckers.

— Secretary Marco Rubio (@SecRubio) August 21, 2025

Rubio's action at State comes shortly after DoT Secretary Sean P. Duffy told the nation that the horrific incident involving an alien truck driver in Florida killing three Americans "cannot happen again." 

This cannot happen again.

.@FMCSA is launching an investigation into both the driver and White Hawk Carrier.

Here’s what we know:

1. Washington State improperly issued the driver a full-term CDL. Asylum seekers or illegal aliens are NOT allowed to receive this!

2. New Mexico… pic.twitter.com/Qlf8T68IJz

— Secretary Sean Duffy (@SecDuffy) August 19, 2025

The issue Duffy and the Trump administration are discovering is that, under the Biden-Harris globalist regime's open-borders invasion, the previous administration had boasted about "reducing barriers" for people to obtain CDLs. Figures from the previous administration showed that nearly a million CDLs were handed out like candy in just a short period of time. 

American Truckers United - the leader in exposing this migrant CDL crisis - has previously warned that many of these CDLs issued under the Biden-Harris regime went to migrants, some of whom don't speak English and were employed by major trucking firms that served mega globalist corporations. 

Hence, the signs at Walmart:

And Amazon. 

And other trucking hubs. 

And remember, while traveling this holiday weekend, maintain full situational awareness on the highways for 80,000-pound big rigs operated by migrants who can't read English. It could save your life - and your family's.

Latest reporting on migrant CDL crisis:

• Advocacy Group Calls For U.S. Probe On Non-English Speaking Migrant Truck Drivers After Deadly Austin Crash

• Biden Handed Out CDLs Like Candy... Now U.S. Highways Are A Public Safety & National Security Nightmare

• Rolling Risk: Unvetted Migrants Behind The Wheel Of Big Rigs Threaten U.S. Safety & Security

• From North America To Australia, Migrant Truckers Are Fueling A Highway Safety Crisis

• English Trucking Rule Takes Effect, Federal Probe Begins Of Sanctuary State Migrant CDL Pipeline

• Letter Urges Transportation Sec. Duffy To Ban Foreign CDLs Amid Series Of Highway Crashes

• Highway Mayhem: Trucker From Sanctuary State Illinois Arrested After Baltimore Shooting Spree

• Walmart, Amazon Truck Depots Display Multilingual Signs, Raising Alarms Over Migrant Drivers With No English

• Watch: American Truckers United Issues Dire Warning On 'Unsafe' Highways Amid Flood Of Migrant Drivers, Crashes

• Florida Highway Horror: Migrant Truck Driver Leaves 3 Americans Dead Amid CDL Crisis

• Illegal Alien Behind Fatal Florida Big Rig Crash; Sec. Duffy Signals Major Action On CDL Crisis

• "This Cannot Happen Again": Sec. Duffy Readies Major Action Against Rogue States Amid Migrant CDL Crisis

• US "Pauses Issuance Of Worker Visas For Truckers" To Address Illegal Alien CDL Crisis Killing Americans

Red states will most likely follow Florida's lead by establishing federal immigration checkpoints at all trucking inspection stations.

. . . 

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/27/2025 - 21:20

'Secret Influence Operation' Exposed: Danish Foreign Minister Summons US Diplomat Over Greenland

Authored by Evgenia Filimianova via The Epoch Times,

Denmark’s foreign minister said on Wednesday that foreign interference in the relationship between Greenland and Denmark is unacceptable, after the country’s main broadcaster, DR, citing unnamed government and security officials as well as unidentified sources in Greenland and the United States, reported that at least three Americans with ties to the White House and U.S. President Donald Trump have been conducting secret influence operations in Greenland.

Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said in a statement that Denmark is aware that foreign actors continue to show interest in Greenland and its position within the Kingdom of Denmark.

“It is therefore not surprising if we experience outside attempts to influence the future of the Kingdom in the time ahead,” he said, adding that interference in Denmark’s internal affairs is unacceptable.

“In that light, I have asked the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to summon the U.S. chargé d’affaires for a meeting at the Ministry.”

The Epoch Times contacted the U.S. mission in Copenhagen, currently headed by Chargé d’affaires Mark Stroh, for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

DR noted in its reporting that it had been unable to determine whether the men allegedly conducting the operations were acting independently or under orders and has not confirmed their names.

Rasmussen added that cooperation between Denmark and Greenland “is close and based on mutual trust.”

Strategic Importance of Greenland

Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory, controls its domestic affairs, while Denmark oversees defense and foreign policy. The island’s location in the Arctic makes it strategically important for monitoring North Pole security.

Trump previously proposed purchasing Greenland, an offer Denmark rejected. The U.S. president has said that U.S. control of the resource-rich island would bolster both national and international security, citing concerns about growing Chinese and Russian naval activity in the Arctic.

In March, U.S. Vice President JD Vance visited a U.S. Space Force base in Greenland, accusing Denmark of having “not done a good job by the people of Greenland.” The remark drew rebukes from officials in both Copenhagen and Nuuk, Greenland’s capital.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance and second lady Usha Vance eat a meal with soldiers at the U.S. military's Pituffik Space Base in Pituffik, Greenland, on March 28, 2025. Jim Watson/Getty Images

Greenland also hosts a key U.S. military installation equipped with space surveillance and missile warning systems. During Trump’s first term, his administration sought to deepen ties with Greenland as part of efforts to counter Chinese and Russian influence in the Arctic.

Security Service Warns of Influence Campaigns

The Danish Security and Intelligence Service (PET) said it believed that Greenland was currently a target for various influence campaigns aimed at creating divisions in the relationship between Denmark and Greenland.

The agency assessed that such efforts could be carried out by exploiting either existing or fabricated disagreements, “for example in connection with well-known individual cases, or by promoting or amplifying certain viewpoints in Greenland regarding the Kingdom, the United States, or other countries with a particular interest in Greenland.”

PET added that in recent years it had continuously strengthened its efforts and presence in Greenland in cooperation with local authorities, and that these measures would continue.

Closer US–Danish Military Ties

In June, Denmark passed legislation allowing the United States to station military bases on Danish soil, expanding a 2023 defense agreement that gave American forces wide access to Danish air bases.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen defended the move, saying it was essential to strengthen ties with Washington rather than risk pushing the United States away.

Greenland and Denmark also announced in April that they would move to solidify their alliance amid repeated U.S. statements about Greenland’s future. The display of unity followed talks in Copenhagen between Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen and Frederiksen.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/27/2025 - 17:40

FDA Revokes Emergency Authorization For COVID-19 Vaccines

The Department of Health and Human Services under Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. revoked emergency authorization for COVID-19 vaccines.

"The emergency use authorizations for Covid vaccines, once used to justify broad mandates on the general public during the Biden administration, are now rescinded," Kennedy posted to X on Wednesday.

I promised 4 things:

1. to end covid vaccine mandates.

2. to keep vaccines available to people who want them, especially the vulnerable.

3. to demand placebo-controlled trials from companies.

4. to end the emergency.

In a series of FDA actions today we accomplished…

— Secretary Kennedy (@SecKennedy) August 27, 2025

The news comes as the FDA, which is part of HHS, announced the approval of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for older adults and children as young as 5-years-old who have at least one condition that puts them at higher risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes, Pfizer said in a Wednesday statement.  

Regulators have issued similar approvals for COVID-19 jabs from Novavax and Moderna. 

HHS revoking emergency approval means that FDA clearance is no longer in place for some 240 million Americans, however "These vaccines are available for all patients who choose them after consulting with their doctors," Kennedy sai. 

As the Epoch Times notes further, per federal law, the FDA approves products it determines are “safe, pure, and potent.” Emergency authorizations, in contrast, can only be offered under certain circumstances, such as during a public health emergency, and are for products that officials believe “may be effective” in treating or preventing a life-threatening disease or condition.

Updated Approvals

Dr. Marty Makary, the FDA’s commissioner, and Dr. Vinay Prasad, its top vaccine official at the time, signaled the change in May, when they said that the FDA would stop approving COVID-19 vaccines for many Americans absent clinical trial data.

“The FDA can only approve products if it concludes, based on scientific evidence, that the benefit-to-harm balance is favorable. And we simply need more data to have that confidence for younger individuals at low-risk of severe disease,” Prasad said at the time.

In the United States, regulators in recent years have been authorizing updated COVID-19 vaccines annually in a bid to counter waning effectiveness and better match circulating variants. The model is based on the historical approach to influenza vaccines.

Regulators in 2024 cleared updated shots from Moderna, Pfizer, and Novavax without human data, citing animal tests and data from trials for previous versions.

Most Americans have not taken one of those COVID-19 vaccines. Just 13 percent of children and 23 percent of adults had received one of them as of April 26, according to the latest statistics available from the CDC.

Makary and Prasad also said they would continue approving updated versions of the COVID-19 vaccines for all individuals 65 and older, as well as younger people with one or more of the risk factors that increase the likelihood of severe COVID-19 outcomes. These approvals would be based solely on immunobridging data, or testing that shows vaccines trigger an antibody response against the disease.

Around that time, the FDA approved Novavax’s vaccine, previously under emergency use authorization, for people 65 and older, and for individuals ages 12 to 64 with at least one risk factor. More recently, the agency approved a new Moderna vaccine for the same populations, and Moderna’s existing vaccine for the elderly and for individuals aged 6 months to 64 years who have at least one risk factor.

The new approval of Pfizer’s vaccine is for the elderly and people aged 5 to 64 who have one or more risk factors, Pfizer said.

That means Moderna’s vaccine is the only one available for infants and toddlers, as had been expected.

Also recently, the CDC stopped recommending COVID-19 vaccination for healthy children and pregnant women while keeping in place recommendations to receive a shot for all other individuals.

The American Academy of Pediatrics recently recommended that all children aged 6 months to 23 months receive a COVID-19 vaccine, while the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists advised all pregnant women to get one.

Regulators cited the public health emergency over COVID-19 in their most recent emergency authorizations for the COVID-19 vaccines in 2024. Then-Health Secretary Xavier Becerra on Jan. 1 extended the COVID-19 health emergency to Dec. 31, 2029.

Kennedy said on Wednesday that he promised to end COVID-19 vaccine mandates, to keep vaccines available to people who want them, to require placebo-controlled trials, and to “end the emergency.” The FDA actions “accomplished all four goals,” he said.

 This is a developing story that will be updated.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/27/2025 - 17:20

The Next Millionaire Class? Why America's Future Depends On Tradespeople

Authored by Mollie Engelhart via The Epoch Times,

Here on the farm, the repair and maintenance list is endless. Some jobs we can handle ourselves, but many others require a tradesman—a mechanic, plumber, HVAC technician, electrician, or contractor.

When I moved to Texas, I was shocked by the cost of hiring them.

Gasoline was half the price of California. Groceries were cheaper.

But when I needed to install an air conditioner at my home in Texas, the bill was higher than when I installed a massive rooftop unit in Echo Park, Los Angeles—an installation that required a crane and even shutting down part of Sunset Boulevard.

How could that be?

The answer became clear as I watched the flow of life around me.

In our restaurant, the customers who seem most financially comfortable—the ones who spend freely on extra desserts or tip generously—are tradespeople. We have a young family who comes in regularly; the husband is an electrician, booked so solid he’s desperate to hire help. Another family comes every Saturday. The husband is a contractor and heavy equipment operator. He works even on Christmas Day, yet they shop and eat generously, week after week. And when I see them spending that way, I see the money flowing right back into our community—into small restaurants, local stores, and family businesses like mine.

Is the next millionaire class going to be plumbers, HVAC techs, septic contractors, and electricians?

I think so.

AI can write code, draft articles, even mimic human speech. But AI cannot install a septic tank. It cannot diagnose why your air conditioner won’t start in the middle of August. It cannot trace a faulty wire through a wall.

And no matter how much technology advances, human beings will always need electricity, plumbing, hot water, and functioning septic systems.

That reality doesn’t change.

The statistics are sobering.

Over half of America’s skilled trade workforce is already over 50 years old, and a massive share are set to retire in the next decade.

For every new tradesperson entering the workforce, there are twenty job openings.

By 2030, nearly 80 million tradespeople will retire, while only about 40 million new workers will enter. Already, HVAC companies report more than 100,000 jobs unfilled, with projections of 225,000 unfilled within five years. Plumbers? A shortage of half a million by 2027. Electricians? The demand is growing at three times the average rate of other jobs.

This crisis mirrors another one I know well: farming. Just as we are losing skilled tradespeople, we are also losing farmers. The average age of the American farmer is nearly 60. Small farms are disappearing every year. And yet food, like electricity, is not optional. Without farmers and tradespeople, the foundation of life collapses.

What is our plan for the future if nobody is growing our food, installing our electricity, fixing our air conditioners, maintaining our plumbing, and running our septic systems?

We must shift back to remembering what is truly important. To someone in an apartment in the city, it might seem that ordering from Amazon, Uber Eats, or Instacart makes life run. But none of that works without the farmer who grows the food and the tradesperson who keeps the electricity flowing, the plumbing running, the air conditioners humming.

The irony is that as our culture pushes young people toward screens and degrees, the greatest opportunities may actually be in the fields and on the job sites.

AI can replace some office jobs, but it cannot replace the physical work of keeping life running.

The wealth of tomorrow may belong not to those writing code in air-conditioned towers, but to those willing to sweat under the sun or climb under a house.

America’s future may well depend on the very people we have undervalued for too long.

The question is whether we will wake up in time to honor and support them—or whether we will only realize their importance when the lights go out, the toilets back up, and the shelves run bare.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/27/2025 - 17:00

Nvidia Slides After Data Center Revenues Miss, Solid Guidance Fails To Wow Bulls

Earlier today we wrote an extensive preview of what to expect from Nvidia's Q1 earnings (here), but for those who missed it here is the summary: if Nvidia beats and raises, revisions might restart, and high valuation could sustain. However, if the results are just in line or even lower, as what happened in the last two quarters, the market may assume margins have peaked, and the story will become less about hypergrowth and more about stabilization. 

Here are the bogeys: 

• The revenue consensus for fiscal Q3 revenue is $53.46 billion. But there’s a much wider range than usual going into that average.
  • For fiscal Q2 that target is $46.23 billion.
• Adj EPS for fiscal Q2 should be $1.01
• Nvidia’s data center division is expected to post $41.3 billion in fiscal Q2 revenue.

That's the 30,000 foot snapshot. In reality, a lot more has happened, starting at the end of July, when President Trump put American chips and other infrastructure at the heart of his AI plan, even prompting a standing ovation for Jensen Huang during a grand speech in DC. Then news: Nvidia got a quid pro quo deal with the Administration to sell China-specific AI accelerators, if the US gets 15% of the sales. Then the President, quite skillfully, dropped a hint that Huang and Nvidia are pushing for a new China-specific chip based on Blackwell architecture. Still, a lot of questions remain on how much of this is real on Nvidia’s side and whether it has not changed the near term trajectory for Nvidia’s top line. Or is this still far from moving the needle for a company that already dominates the market for AI chips. In any case, one area to keep an eye on is any update around its H20 chips, which is a hot-button issue for investors

China aside, Nvidia - which is the world's largest company and accounts for 8% of the S&P - is growing quickly and Wall Street, which has revenue estimates going as far out as 2030, projects steady increases in that time. The question is at what rate? Any hint of disappointing numbers and investors will once again raise concerns that the massive spending in AI infrastructure has to eventually slow down.

Those concerns will get even louder after the company's earnings which just came out and leave quite a bit to be desired, especially since data centers missed. Here is what the company just reported for Q2:

• Adjusted EPS $1.05, beating estimates of $1.00 (NVIDIA benefited from a $180 million release of previously reserved H20 inventory, from approximately $650 million in unrestricted H20 sales to a customer outside of China.)
• Revenue $46.74 billion, +56% y/y, beating estimates of $46.23 billion 
  • Data center revenue $41.1 billion, +56% y/y, missing estimates of $41.29 billion; this was the second consecutive quarter in which data centers missed.
  • Gaming revenue $4.3 billion, +49% y/y, beating estimates of $3.82 billion
  • Professional Visualization revenue $601 million, +32% y/y, beating estimates of $532 million
  • Automotive revenue $586 million, +69% y/y, missing estimate $592.7 million

Going down the income statement:

• Adjusted gross margin 72.7%; beating est of 72.1%
  • Excluding the $180 million release, non-GAAP gross margin for the quarter would have been 72.3%.
• Adjusted operating expenses $3.80 billion, +36% y/y, below estimates of $4.02 billion
• Adjusted operating income $30.17 billion, +51% y/y, beating estimates of $29.36 billion
• R&D expenses $4.29 billion, +39% y/y, below the estimates of $4.44 billion
• Free cash flow $13.45 billion, -0.2% y/y

Addressing the elephant in the room, NVDA said that there were no H20 sales to China-based customers in the second quarter, and the question whether there will be any sales in the future will likely be discussed on the call. NVIDIA also said that it benefited from a $180 million release of previously reserved H20 inventory, from approximately $650 million in unrestricted H20 sales to a customer outside of China.

Of course, not assuming any H20 shipments to China in the 3Q outlook does leave room for upside. All of the above happened quickly in July and the report for 2Q is for the period ending July 27, exactly a month a go, so let's see what happened in the month of August.

In his comments, tit-signing CEO Jensen Huang said that “Blackwell is the AI platform the world has been waiting for, delivering an exceptional generational leap — production of Blackwell Ultra is ramping at full speed, and demand is extraordinary." He added that "NVIDIA NVLink rack-scale computing is revolutionary, arriving just in time as reasoning AI models drive orders-of-magnitude increases in training and inference performance. The AI race is on, and Blackwell is the platform at its center.”

NVDA also announced that while it returned $24.3 billion in stock repurchases and cash dividends in Q1, leaving it with $14.7 billion remaining under its share repurchase authorization, on August 26, 2025, the Board of Directors approved an additional $60.0 billion to the Company’s share repurchase authorization.

While the Q2 results were generally ok if not stellar (and data center missed), the company's guidance came slightly on the weak side of the buyside expectations we discussed in our premium preview.

• Revenue is expected to be $54.0 billion, plus or minus 2%; which was above the consensus est of $53.46 billion but keep in mind some had estimates as high as $60 billion. That said, the surge in revenue continues: for Q2, its guidance was $45.0 billion, so a $9 billion sequential increase!.
• Sees adjusted gross margins at 73.5%, plus or minus 50 basis points, just above the 73.4% median estimate. 
• Operating expenses are expected to be approximately $5.9 billion and $4.2 billion, respectively. Full year fiscal 2026 operating expense growth is expected to be in the high-30% range.
• Other income and expense are expected to be an income of approximately $500 million, excluding gains and losses from non-marketable and publicly-held equity securities.
• Tax rates are expected to be 16.5%, plus or minus 1%, excluding any discrete items.

Of note: the forecast excluded data center revenue from China, a market where it has struggled with US export restrictions and opposing pressure from Beijing. Expect China to buy a lot of NVDA chips as its own domestic AI chips are nowhere near good enough to power its latest LLMs. 

Commenting on the results, CEO Jensen Huang said that “Global demand for NVIDIA’s AI infrastructure is incredibly strong. AI inference token generation has surged tenfold in just one year, and as AI agents become mainstream, the demand for AI computing will accelerate.”

Putting these results and forecasts in visual context, starting with revenue.

The thorn in today's results: data center. It dipped sequentially. This was the second quarter in a row that data center revenues missed. 

Here’s some more detail on what did happen with the data center business and Blackwell products in quarter gone (2Q) from the CFO commentary:

“We continue to ramp our Blackwell architecture, which grew 17% sequentially, including our newest architecture, Blackwell Ultra. We recognized Blackwell revenue across all customer categories, led by large cloud service providers, which represented approximately 50% of Data Center revenue.”

A growth number for the latest generation architecture Nvidia has confirmation the hyperscalers are still half of Nvidia’s data center business and the fact they are packing it all up and selling it through various channels.

Somewhat concerning was the unexpected jump in inventories, although a more benign explanation is that the company is just stockpiling ahead of a Trump green light to sell to China. 

Receivables jumped too:

While NVDA's results were fine, the tepid outlook adds to concern that pace of investment in artificial intelligence systems is unsustainable. Difficulties in China also have clouded Nvidia’s business. Though the Trump administration recently eased restrictions on exports of some AI chips to that country, the reprieve hasn’t yet translated into a rebound in revenue. 

As we noted in our preview, Nvidia has been dealing with the fallout from a growing US-China rivalry, where semiconductor technology has become a major flashpoint. In April, the Trump administration tightened restrictions on exports of data center processors to Chinese customers, effectively shutting Nvidia out of the market. Washington has subsequently rolled that back, saying that the US will allow some shipments in return for a 15% slice of the revenue. 

At the same time, Beijing has encouraged a move away from using US technology in AI systems accessed by the Chinese government. The shifting policies have made it difficult for Wall Street to predict how much revenue Nvidia might be able to recover in the market. Some analysts have made projections in the billions of dollars, while others have refused to predict any China sales until the company makes the situation clearer. 

Nvidia shares fell about 4% in extended trading following the announcement before recovering much of the loss. They had rallied 35% this year through the close, lifting the company’s market capitalization above $4 trillion. Shares of other AI-related hardware stocks are also falling in after-hours trading following Nvidia’s results. CoreWeave shares are down about 3%, SMCI is down about 2%, Palantir is down 0.8% and Dell is also slipping. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/27/2025 - 16:47

Victor Davis Hanson: What Is The Democratic Alternative To Trump?

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson,

The Pavlovian Left goes berserk at the mere prospect of each new Trump initiative.

Its escalating reactive venom and hysteria are calibrated to the success of Trump’s latest policy.

Yet the new hard-left Democratic Party offers no counter-agenda to explain its furor.

Still less do Democrats attempt bipartisan efforts to craft shared legislation.

Take foreign policy.

Democratic senators trashed the recent Trump-Putin Alaskan summit as a failure. Then they became depressed when, just days later, an entourage of European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suddenly flew to the White House.

The Euros praised Trump for offering some sort of negotiated pathway to peace after over three years of war and some 1.5 million dead, wounded, missing, and captured on both sides — on Europe’s doorstep.

So why did Democrats object to such negotiations by Trump?

Was the reason that no such thing occurred during the Biden administration, when Putin invaded Ukraine, after his earlier invasions during the Obama era?

What is the left’s alternate plan? The old Biden idea of supplying Ukraine with enough money and arms to keep fighting and dying, but with no path to either victory or a negotiated peace?

Would they prefer a fourth, fifth, or sixth year of war, or an additional one million casualties?

The more Trump pressed almost all NATO members to pay their promised two percent of GDP on defense, the more Democrats grew irate over Trump’s overseas influence.

NATO members now want to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP and gush that Trump is “Daddy.”

Democrats steamed at that, since Europeans are supposed to hate Trump, not admire him for rebooting NATO.

Would they prefer the old, disarmed NATO?

Under the Biden administration, over 10 million illegal aliens flooded the country, sometimes 10,000 a day at the southern border. More than half a million criminals swarmed in.

Yet now there is essentially zero illegal immigration and over 100,000 criminal aliens deported. A million who entered illegally have voluntarily gone home.

Yet the left has fought the enforcement of immigration law tooth and nail.

Do they believe that it is lawful and moral to break immigration law but immoral and illegal to enforce it?

What is their solution?

To allow in 20, 30, or 40 million more illegal aliens to distort the census and bring in new voters and constituencies?

Is their plan to protect 400,000 illegal-alien criminals to roam at will? Or to add another 600 sanctuary jurisdictions that will not hand over criminal illegal aliens to immigration authorities?

Democrats used to support reciprocal tariffs to save American jobs and businesses — while warning of Chinese mercantilism.

But now they blast Trump for negotiating tariffs with dozens of nations in efforts to reduce an unsustainable $1 trillion trade deficit.

So far, Washington projects $300 billion in new revenue.

Foreign businesses have promised to invest between $10 and $15 trillion within the United States. Trading partners have lowered tariffs on U.S. goods and services.

So why the left-wing frenzy?

Do they object to too much new federal income? Is there too much new foreign investment?

Are new foreign tariffs too low on U.S. exports? Are Democrats worried that China may lose money?

In 35 minutes of precision bombing, Trump disabled the Iranian nuclear program that was readying nuclear weapons. Few Iranians and no Americans died. No wider war followed.

And the Democrats still cursed the Trump action.

Did they prefer the Obama-era “Iran Deal” that had brought Iran to the threshold of nuclear acquisition? Did they want theocratic Iran to have nuclear weapons to threaten democratic Israel?

Do Democrats complain that Trump tweets too much and sometimes is crude in his postings?

Not really. California Gov. Gavin Newsom tries to out-Trump on social media.

Rep. Jasmine Crockett responds with scatological attacks.

Democrats in Congress let off f-bombs.

What explains the Democrat nihilism?

One, the prior Biden administration was among the most aimless, corrupt, and unpopular in modern history.

So the contrast with Trump’s successes is too hard to bear.

Two, Democrats so hate Trump the messenger that they seek to destroy his entire message, even when it benefits their own country and the world at large.

If Trump conducts peace, they prefer war. If he wages war on crime, they side with the criminal. If he stops illegal immigration, they want more illegal immigrants.

Three, they fear they have no alternatives to the Trump record, because his agenda is common sense and supported by a majority of Americans.

Fourth, the left cannot stop Trump’s success.

Nothing seems to destroy him — not the raid on his home, not 93 lawfare indictments, not efforts to strike him from state ballots, not two impeachments, not even two assassination attempts.

Instead, all that only made him stronger — and thus more hated.

*  *  *

You can support ZeroHedge by picking up a waxed canvas hat!

Click hat... add to cart... check out... receive awesome hat... Tyler Durden Wed, 08/27/2025 - 16:20

NY Times Slammed For Predictable RFK Health Hit-Pieces

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

The New York Times came under fire on Monday for running a hit piece against Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s pro-exercise campaign.

The leftist newspaper, as legacy media often does, leaned on so-called experts cautioning “against jumping into a difficult routine suggested by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Pete Hegseth.”

Its headline—100 Push-Ups and 50 Pull-Ups in Under 10 Minutes. What Could Go Wrong?—was predictably snarky.

The piece targeted the “Pete and Bobby Challenge,” a social media campaign aimed at raising awareness about fitness and weight loss.

However, according to The Times and their quoted experts, the exercise “may not be for everyone.”

“For the average person, I would definitely recommend building volume in these movements over three to four weeks before giving it a go,” said Utah athlete Dallin Pepper.

The leftist rag then cited Toronto-based personal trainer Chris Smits to say that the regimen proposed by Hegseth and Kennedy is not feasible for most Americans.

Citing experts is a common tactic in legacy media attacks on conservatives.

Self-described journalists pick a topic, guide the experts toward the conclusions they desire and then publish the story.

This cycle allows them to wash their hands by claiming they are simply reporting.

On X, critics piled on The Times, describing the hit piece as predictable as it was laughable.

“The New York Times really hates working out,” wrote Republican communicator Nathan Brand.

the New York Times really hates working out pic.twitter.com/m0lPBMnNnu

— Nathan Brand (@NathanBrandWA) August 26, 2025

Media personality Collin Rugg added: “The @TheBabylonBee couldn’t even come up with something as insane as this.”

The New York Times is warning against RFK Jr. & Pete Hegseth's 100 Push-Ups & 50 Pull-Ups challenge by citing "experts" who say it could be dangerous.

One Canadian 'trainer' cited by the NYT said the challenge could give people "serious muscle strains or tears."

"Pushing for… pic.twitter.com/H54RQhSPAb

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) August 25, 2025

Fitness expert Oliver Anwar quipped, “This is confirmation that The New York Times is run by low-T softies.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/27/2025 - 15:45

Federal Government Returns To US Supreme Court In Push To Freeze $12 Billion In Foreign Aid

Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times,

The federal government on Aug. 26 filed an application with the U.S. Supreme Court seeking to suspend a court order that is preventing it from freezing billions in foreign aid.

President Donald Trump, on inauguration day, ordered a 90-day pause on all foreign aid.

His presidential order was met with legal challenges from two nonprofit groups that receive federal funding grants related to aid: the AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition and Journalism Development Network.

They alleged that Trump’s funding freeze was unlawful.

The order directed federal agencies to “immediately pause new obligations and disbursements of development assistance funds to foreign countries and implementing non-governmental organizations” while the newly elected administration reviewed the programs to see if they were consistent with its America First foreign policy objectives.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio then outlined in a memorandum that he was freezing foreign-aid programs funded by the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). The AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition and Journalism Development Network were among those granted money from this pool of funding.

In an emergency filing, U.S. Solicitor General D. John Sauer of the U.S. Department of Justice said on Aug. 26 that the administration’s position to overturn a federal court injunction had been supported 2–1 by the panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit earlier this month.

Despite that ruling, the injunction by a lower court remains in effect after U.S. District Judge Amir Ali in Washington on Aug. 25—and the federal appeals court last week—rejected the Justice Department’s request to put it on hold.

“The government is thus forced to ask this Court to give effect to the D.C. Circuit’s decision, which correctly held that private parties cannot enlist Article III courts to supplant the interbranch dialogue regarding the expenditure of appropriated funds,” Sauer said in his 36-page application to the Supreme Court.

The funds subject to the injunction comprise tens of billions of dollars, some $12 billion of which would need to be spent by the U.S. Department of State before Sept. 30, when they expire, according to the filing.

Without the court’s intervention, Sauer said, the State Department will be bound by the injunction to keep making the foreign aid payments before the expiry date.

The injunction “will effectively force the government to rapidly obligate some $12 billion in foreign-aid funds that would expire September 30 and to continue obligating tens of billions of dollars more—overriding the Executive Branch’s foreign-policy judgments regarding whether to pursue rescissions and thwarting interbranch dialogue,” Sauer said.

Disputes between the legislative and executive branches over federal funding have historically been determined through the political process, as codified by the Impoundment Control Act of 1974 (ICA).

“Yet the district court jumped ahead, appointing itself as overseer of spending decisions and allowing private parties to bring suits without regard to the Comptroller General or Congress’s views,” Sauer said.

The lower court decision effectively ruled that such private parties “could persuade district courts to superintend the Executive Branch’s disbursement of funding streams and second-guess the political branches’ views of the ICA,” the filing said.

Sauer said the plaintiffs face no irreparable harm from the federal government’s decision to freeze funding.

“They cannot claim irreparable harm from the unavailability of certain funding streams when they have no entitlement to those funds anyway,” the petition said.

“They simply want to compete for foreign-aid awards. But even under the injunction, they have no guarantee of getting a penny, making it all the more incongruous for them to effectively commandeer the spending of billions of dollars.”

The U.S. Supreme Court declined on March 5 to intervene after Ali ruled against the administration on Feb. 25.

The Supreme Court at the time asked Ali to “clarify what obligations the Government must fulfill to ensure compliance” with his temporary restraining order.

Ali then determined it was likely the Trump administration was acting beyond its purview by canceling funds earmarked by Congress, and barred it from “unlawfully impounding congressionally appropriated foreign aid funds.”

The DOJ appealed, and the three-judge appeals panel stayed Ali’s order. The plaintiffs then appealed to the full court of appeals, which has yet to make its decision but has left Ali’s injunction in place.

Sauer has asked for its petition to be addressed by Sept. 2 “due to the additional irreparable harms the government would incur past that point.”

“Backtracking on those commitments and proposing rescissions after September 2 would inflict irreparable diplomatic costs and generate needless interbranch friction,” he said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/27/2025 - 15:00

Goldman's iPhone 17 Breakdown Ahead Of "Awe Dropping" Event

Apple announced on Tuesday that its upcoming "Awe Dropping" iPhone 17 event will take place on September 9. The launch is expected to feature an all-new super-thin iPhone, new Watch models with satellite connectivity, and the long-awaited AirPods Pro 3.

Ahead of the launch event, Goldman analysts led by Michael Ng told clients that his desk is "Buy" rated on the stock. 

"We are encouraged by reports surrounding (1) form factor updates to iPhone 17 models (17 "Air" model, larger base screen size); (2) the potential for a price increase to the iPhone 17 Pro; and (3) continued carrier competition driving device-related promotions," Ng told clients. 

He stated, "We reiterate our Buy rating on AAPL and forecast iPhone revenue to grow +5% yoy in F2025E before accelerating to +7% yoy growth in F2026E."

Ng expects four new iPhone models to be launched at the beginning of the iPhone 17 cycle:

1. iPhone 17 (base);

2. iPhone 17 "Air" (replacing the Plus model);

3. iPhone 17 Pro; and

4. iPhone 17 Pro Max.

So, what's really changing with the new iPhone? Good question. The analyst provides some thoughts:

First, the iPhone 17 series will reportedly feature a variety of different form factor changes (Exhibit 1). For one, Apple should debut the first iPhone 17 "Air" model (which should replace the iPhone "Plus" model), featuring a thinner and lighter form factor relative to other iPhone models, with a display size between that of the 17 Pro (6.3") and 17 Pro Max (6.9"). In addition, the iPhone 17 base model display size should now measure 6.3" (v. 6.1" in the base iPhone 16 model), now equal to that of Pro models. Second, the iPhone 17 series should be able to support greater compute intensity, with updated A19 series processor chips and 12 GB of RAM (v. 8GB RAM in the iPhone 16 family). iPhone 17 Pro & Pro Max models should feature premium chip models (likely A19 Pro), and the iPhone 17 (base) and Air models featuring a less advanced chip model (A19 base or less compute intensive A19 Pro). Greater chip power and RAM capacity likely reflects a greater need for compute intensity ahead of upcoming Apple Intelligence feature updates and releases, including the 2026 expected release of AI-enhanced Siri. Third, the iPhone 17 series should see an improved front camera (24 MP v. 12 MP in the iPhone 16 family).

Thoughts on pricing:

Though it has been reported that Apple could raise prices by $50 across its iPhone 17 line up, we expect pricing for iPhone 17 (base) and Pro Max models to be in-line with that of preceding models ($799 128GB base model starting price; $1,199 256GB Pro Max starting price). That said, we believe Apple could implicitly raise prices on the Pro model, in-line with recent reports. While the iPhone 16 Pro started at 128GB at $999, we believe Apple could raise prices by eliminating the 128 GB storage option, moving 17 Pro starting storage and price to 256 GB and $1,099. This would be similar to how Apple raised prices on Pro Max models in 2023 during the launch of the iPhone 15 series, when it eliminated the $1,099 128 GB storage option for the iPhone 15 Pro Max, moving the Pro Max model's starting storage and price to 256 GB and $1,199. We expect iPhone 17 Air pricing to be relatively in-line with the iPhone 16 Plus ($899), due to its specialized thin form factor yet reported inferior battery capacity and single-lens back camera.

And what does the new iPhone mean for Apple's revenue growth? Well, Ng has that topic covered as well:

Overall, we view the iPhone 17 line-up as supportive of sustaining iPhone revenue growth from F2025 into F2026 (GSe iPhone revenue growth estimates for +5% yoy in F2025E, +7% yoy in F2026E). First, from a demand standpoint, we view updates including larger screen sizes on the 17 base model, improved front-cameras, and improved processor chip power as supportive of device refresh, particularly amongst members of the iPhone installed base with devices that are aging (>3 years since purchase) or that do not support Apple Intelligence (devices less powerful than iPhone 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max) ahead of the launch of additional AI features in the coming year (AI-enhanced Siri). Second, from a price perspective, we view the potential for an implicit iPhone price increase through eliminating the 128GB $999 Pro model option as supportive of ASP uplift over time, particularly as the iPhone shipments skew increasingly premium over time (Exhibit 5). We are mixed on the benefits of the iPhone 17 Air model. While the thinner, lighter form factor may drive some demand interest, potential features such as an inferior battery & a single lens rear camera (vs. base model with 2 lenses & better camera) may not justify a purchase over the iPhone 17 base model.

Summary of key changes expected in iPhone 17 series

iPhone announcement event has not historically been a stock catalyst for outperformance/underperformance

Promotional activity among US carriers for iPhones 

iPhone 17 pricing 

iPhone revenue forecast 

Remaining product pipeline

How "Awe Dropping" will this upcoming launch event be if the iPhone 17 still looks the same as previous iPhone models? 

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/27/2025 - 14:40

Momentum Strategies And Physics: Mass And Velocity Matter

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

In his 1687 book, Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica, Sir Isaac Newton defined momentum as the product of mass and velocity, or p = m * v. The reason we begin with a physics lesson is that momentum strategies are very popular, and Isaac Newton’s famous formula can teach us a lot about financial asset momentum.

Recently, we have seen rapid shifts in and out of various sectors and stock factors that disrupt momentum strategies. Therefore, understanding how momentum strategies work can help you better identify when they might be effective and when it’s time to switch to a different approach.

The graphs used in this article are from 8/21/2025. Although slightly outdated, their goal is to help readers understand how to measure momentum rather than assess the current momentum state.

Physics 101

Returning to our basic physics formula, p = m * v.

To measure financial momentum, we also need to measure the velocity and mass of a financial asset or index.

Mass

Mass (m) in finance terminology refers to the trading volume or market interest behind an asset. Market cap or AUM, trading volumes, and investor sentiment can be used to measure mass.

The graph below, courtesy of SimpleVisor, highlights the bullish trend channel (blue) from late May through mid-August.

In this example, we will focus on three indicators to evaluate mass.

The first indicator is volume, along with its moving average. As indicated by the red and green bars, volume has remained steady throughout the trend. This is also supported by the relatively flat moving average (black line). Ideally, we want to see rising volume alongside a trend. However, volume isn’t decreasing either, which would suggest the trend is losing momentum.

The middle graph is On Balance Volume (OBV). OBV adds volume on days when a security’s price closes higher and subtracts volume when it closes lower. Therefore, it shows a running total of buying or selling pressure. Ideally, we want to see it increasing. Like we noted with volume, which is also flat, OBV momentum isn’t gaining strength, but it doesn’t indicate that momentum is declining either. 

The bottom graph shows the Volume Oscillator, which compares a shorter and a longer moving average of volume. When it declines, it indicates that volume over the shorter moving average period is less than that of the more extended period. As shown above, the oscillator has been declining, though at a slow rate.

None of the volume indicators suggest a break in the momentum trend is imminent, but they also don’t indicate the trend is gaining strength. 

Velocity

Velocity (v) quantifies the persistence of the trend and its slope.

Let’s revisit the graph above with three popular indicators of velocity.

The graph shows the Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD. The MACD is computed by subtracting a longer-term moving average from a shorter-term one. Additionally, a signal line, an even shorter moving average, accompanies the MACD. We examine not only the trend and level of the MACD but also convergences or divergences from the signal line. A convergence indicates a weakening trend, while divergence suggests increasing momentum. In the graph, the MACD remains stable with no apparent signs of convergence or divergence. Although generally bullish, the MACD level is high, which is difficult to sustain, and it has been gradually sloping downward.

The indicator just below the price chart is the Relative Price Index, or RSI. The RSI is an oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of price movements. The index ranges from 100, which signals it’s very overbought, to 0, indicating it is very oversold. Typically, levels above 75 and below 25 suggest a reversal in momentum is likely. Equally important is the trend of the RSI line. Like most indicators, we prefer a gently rising or falling trend over sharp movements. Currently, after reaching overbought levels in late July, the RSI has generally been declining, showing that momentum is weakening.

Last is the Rate of Change (ROC). The ROC calculation shows the percentage difference between the current price and an earlier price. An ROC of zero, as indicated by the graph, means the price has not changed compared to 9 days ago. ROC should be above zero in an uptrend and below zero in a downtrend. However, during healthy market consolidations, the ROC can reach zero. In such cases, breaking below zero could coincide with breaking the highlighted price channel and a change in momentum.

What Is p?

Before moving on, let’s review the momentum of the S&P 500 based on the indicators and charts above. The highlighted trend channel, along with the mass and velocity indicators, suggests a market with positive momentum. Both sets of indicators are indicating some easing of momentum but not warning of an upcoming reversal. As we mentioned earlier, it’s healthy to experience brief periods of correction or consolidation in strong upward trends. So far, we should assume this is the case until our indicators and the price chart indicate otherwise.

Pitfalls of Momentum Strategies

Momentum strategies depend on the persistence of price trends and indicators that measure those trends, some of which are described above. When markets undergo significant two-way volatility or rapid rotations with market leadership shifting quickly between sectors and/or stock factors, momentum strategies often face difficulties.

The biggest problem with the strategy is its delayed reaction. Because momentum strategies rely on past price data, trends may reverse or fade before the strategy can fully take advantage of them, resulting in whipsaw losses. Additionally, the model might not detect a new momentum trend until it is well into the cycle, leaving little upside potential.

Another important factor is time. If you plan to follow a momentum strategy, you must decide whether you’re a short-term trader or a medium- or long-term investor. A short-term trader might use minute-by-minute data to capitalize on momentum trends over hours or days. Long-term traders, on the other hand, need to focus on the bigger picture. Naturally, the scope of that picture depends on how long-term an investor you are.

Mitigating Data Lag

When markets are volatile and rotations occur quickly, momentum can still be effective. Still, strategies need to adjust to the environment. For example, you may want to use shorter lookback periods to capture momentum changes more quickly.

Another practical step is diversification. Instead of depending on just one or two sectors, factors, or stocks with strong momentum, think about broadening your portfolio. This can help reduce the volatility of your returns. Additionally, including other value factors, such as market capitalization, beta, or value versus growth, alongside the momentum indicator, can result in more stable outcomes.

Summary

Momentum strategies give investors the chance for higher returns than the market. Additionally, momentum can be fairly easily measured, allowing investors to use a rule-based system, which can help reduce the influence of emotions on trading decisions.

Momentum strategies, like all other investment strategies, have periods when they perform well and periods when they underperform. For example, during periods of quick rotations where momentum trends are not sustained and volatility is high, investors can often find themselves on the wrong side of momentum.

We leave you with the graph below.

Since 2022, the performance of a widely followed momentum ETF (MTUM) has matched the S&P 500 (SPY). However, the blue shading indicates that although both ended up in the same place, the strategy experienced periods of outperformance and equally poor periods of underperformance.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/27/2025 - 14:25

Tom Cotton Targets Tax Status Of 'Terrorist-Supporting' Youth Movement

Renewed high-level scrutiny on far-left nonprofits emerged overnight with a New York Times report on Tuesday evening, which revealed that the Gates Foundation had abruptly severed ties with a "dark money" network operated by Arabella Advisors. Then by morning, President Trump fired off a post on Truth Social calling for possible RICO charges against George Soros and his radical leftist son for their "support of violent protests." We must note that Bill Gates met with Trump at the White House earlier on Tuesday, according to an NBC report. 

The move by the Gates Foundation, along with Trump's comments, suggests that an impending crackdown on rogue progressive philanthropic networks could arrive as early as this fall. 

Additional evidence of this scrutiny surfaced actually last week, Senator Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) sounded the alarm on X. Cotton singled out the Palestinian Youth Movement (PYM), a leftist activist group closely aligned with Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP), accusing it of working across university campuses to incite anti-Israel protests and campus chaos.

"The Palestinian Youth Movement's support of Hamas and ties to terror groups should prevent it from receiving tax-exempt donations. I'm asking the IRS to investigate and remedy this situation," Cotton wrote on X last Friday. 

The Palestinian Youth Movement’s support of Hamas and ties to terror groups should prevent it from receiving tax exempt donations. I’m asking the IRS to investigate and remedy this situation. https://t.co/dmCimJObgM

— Tom Cotton (@SenTomCotton) August 22, 2025

Cotton sent a letter to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, requesting that the IRS investigate PYM and its funding sources for potential violations of U.S. tax law.

Cotton emphasized that while PYM is known for antisemitic activities and support for terrorist groups like Hamas, the core issue is its ability to receive tax-exempt donations...

"An organization that supports terrorism, breaks U.S. law, and sows antisemitic discord should not receive any benefits from the American tax system. I ask you to immediately investigate both PYM and Honor the Earth and to take any actions necessary to remedy this situation," Cotton wrote in the letter. 

Commentary on PYM via Jason Curtis Anderson, cofounder of the good government group One City Rising, reveals: 

"One of the basic qualifications for tax-exempt 501(c)(3) charity status is that an organization must actually work for the public good. The Palestinian Youth Movement (PYM) is an international terror-supporting network that doesn't even pretend to contribute anything positive to society. Last year's People's Conference for Palestine in Detroit—the largest pro-terror conference in U.S. history—was sponsored, convened, and managed by PYM, which also served as the primary recipient of donations. Its speaker lineup included current PFLP member Wisam Rafeedie, Sana' Daqqa—the wife of convicted PFLP terrorist Walid Daqqa—and even a promotional endorsement from PFLP founding member Salah Salah. With another conference looming in 2025, it is unacceptable that groups openly glorifying terrorism enjoy the same tax-exempt privileges as organizations that truly serve the public good, like feeding the homeless. The 501(c)(3) world has become the Wild West of government subversion, permanent protests, and foreign influence, and I applaud Senator Tom Cotton's much-needed efforts to put a stop to this rampant abuse." 

Takeaway is clear: The days of dynastic billionaire families, foreign money, taxpayer dollars, and leftist nonprofits feeding the Democratic Party machine are about to come under the crosshairs and face heavy scrutiny this fall. Americans are sick and tired of rogue leftist NGOs unleashing color-revolution-style operations across major cities, if that's rioting, burning private property, and attacking government facilities. We also suspect the Marxists around Neville Roy Singham have been put on notice.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/27/2025 - 14:05

"A Big Signal" - Trump's Envoy Witkoff To Meet Ukrainians In New York This Week

Authored by Guy Birchall via The Epoch Times,

U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said he is set to meet with Ukrainian representatives in the United States this week during an interview on Tuesday.

“I’m meeting with the Ukrainians this week. So I will be meeting with them this week in New York, and that’s a big signal,” Witkoff said on Fox News’ “Special Report” with Bret Baier.

“We talk to the Russians every day,” he added, saying he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin wished to bring the war to a close.

“I think he [Putin] has made a good faith effort to engage. He certainly did at the Alaska summit. But it’s a very complicated conflict.

“I think that we may end up seeing a bilateral meeting. My own opinion is that the president is going to be needed at the table to finish a deal.”

U.S. President Donald Trump met with Putin in Alaska on Aug. 15 and later with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on Aug. 18.

In the wake of those summits, Trump said the two leaders would hold a bilateral meeting, which would then be followed by a trilateral meeting including him.

Zelenskyy has said Russia was doing everything it could to prevent a meeting between him and Putin, while Russia has said the agenda for such a meeting was not ready.

Last week, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said that Moscow has made “significant concessions” toward reaching a peace deal to end the more than three-year conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

In an interview with NBC News’s “Meet the Press,” the vice president said Putin made multiple concessions toward reaching a deal with Kyiv, including one that allows Ukraine to receive security guarantees to ward off future attacks.

Vance said that the Russians have “recognized that they’re not going to be able to install a puppet regime in Kyiv,” noting it was “a major demand at the beginning.”

“And importantly, they’ve acknowledged that there is going to be some security guarantee to the territorial integrity of Ukraine,” he said.

“Have they made every concession? Of course, they haven’t. We’re making progress.”

The violence between Moscow and Kyiv continued overnight, with a Russian drone attack damaging an energy sector facility in Ukraine’s central Poltava, the region’s governor said on Wednesday.

“This night, the enemy massively attacked the Poltava region,” Governor Volodymyr Kohut said on Telegram. “Falling debris and direct hits were recorded in the Poltava district. An energy sector enterprise was damaged. An administrative building, vehicles, and equipment were damaged. Fires broke out on the territory of the enterprise.”

He added that consumers had temporarily lost power as a result of the attack and that “fortunately, there were no casualties.”

The nighttime aerial assault also shut off power in parts of the northern city of Sumy after Russia struck critical infrastructure facilities, leaving all water utility facilities without power and relying on emergency backups on Wednesday morning, according to a Telegram post from Sumy City Military Administration Chief Serhii Kryvosheienko.

“Restoration efforts are now underway in the Sumy region after Russian drone strikes,” Zelenskyy said in a post on X on Wednesday discussing the attack. “Nearly a hundred UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] and targeted overnight attacks on our regions, aimed specifically at civilian infrastructure.”

“The Russians continue the war and ignore the world’s calls to stop the killings and destruction,” he added, calling for “new steps” to “increase pressure” on Moscow to “stop the attacks and to ensure real security guarantees.”

The Ukrainian Air Force said it downed 74 out of 95 Shahed drones overnight, and that 21 drones hit nine locations across the country.

Russia, meanwhile, said that its air defenses intercepted and destroyed 26 Ukrainian drones over the country through the night, according to Moscow’s Defense Ministry.

At least seven apartment buildings were damaged in a drone attack on the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, located just more than 60 miles from the Russia–Ukraine border, Russian state news agency TASS reported.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/27/2025 - 13:45

Tailing 5Y Auction Sees Record High Directs, Record Low Dealers

After yesterday's stellar, blowout 2Y auction, moments ago the US sold $70 billion in 5Y paper in what was a far weaker auction. 

The high yield was 3.724%, down from 3.983% in July and the lowest since last September's 3.519%; it also tailed the When Issued 3.717% by 0.7bps, the 3rd tail in a row.

The Bid to Cover was 2.36, up from last month's ugly 2.31, but below the six auction average of 2.37.

The internals were also wobbly, with Indirects taking 60.5%, up from 58.3%, but also far below the recent average of 69.3%. But weakness in foreign demand was offset by a surge in domestic demand, with Directs taking a new record high of 30.7%.

This left just 8.8% for Dealers, tied with the previous record low from Jan 2023.

And overall:

While this was generally a disappointing auction, although with some silver linings below the surface, clearly the market did not care, and 10Y yields slumped to the day's lows shortly after the auction.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/27/2025 - 13:35

WTI Holds Gains After Across-The-Board Inventory Drawdowns

Oil reversed some of Tuesday’s decline as investors looked ahead to stockpile data and weighed the start of a higher US tariff on Indian goods in reprisal for the nation’s imports of Russian crude.

Brent nudged above $67 a barrel after falling more than 2% in the prior session, though prices have largely been stuck in a $5 band this month.

As Bloomberg reports, the US raised the tariff on some Indian goods to 50% on Wednesday - the highest levy applied to any Asian nation - to punish the country for buying Moscow’s oil. Still, processors plan to maintain the bulk of their purchases.

Traders continue to look ahead to an outlook for oversupply later in the year, said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management.

“There are also no signs that the increase in US tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 50%, which took effect today as punishment for India’s purchases of Russian oil, has had any significant impact on global oil supply,” he said.

All eyes are now on this morning's official data after API reported a smaller than expected crude draw last week...

API

• Crude -974k (-1.7mm exp)

• Cushing

• Gasoline +2.06mm

• Distillates +1.49mm

DOE

• Crude -2.4mm (-1.7mm exp)

• Cushing -838k

• Gasoline -1.236mm

• Distillates -1.786mm

Official data showed a bigger than expected (and larger than API reported) crude draw. Additionally products saw inventory draws as stocks at the Cushing Hub tumbled for the first time in 8 weeks...

Source: Bloomberg

Despite a sizable 776k addition to the SPR (largest since May), US commercial crude stocks still fell for the second week in a row...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production hovered near record highs as the decline in rig counts has stalled...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI prices sustained their earlier gains after the bigger than expected crude draw...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, Bloomberg reports that a key physical market flashed a sign of weakness on Tuesday.

In a North Sea pricing window that helps underpin benchmark futures prices, top traders lined up with eight offers of benchmark grades and no willing bidders.

One grade fell to near a two-month low and related swaps contracts also softened.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/27/2025 - 10:42

Futures Flat, Dollar Jumps Ahead Of Nvidia's Critical Earnings

Futures are flat with all eyes on NVDA - the largest S&P component by far accounting for a record 8% of the S&P - set to report after the bell. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are just barely in the green recovering from a modest loss earlier, while Nasdaq futures gain 0.1%, with NVDA up +54bps premarket, tracking most of the Mag7 higher and Semis also bid. Cyclicals are mixed (Industrials up, Fins down) with Defensives mostly higher. The yield curve is twisting steeper but with a lesser magnitude to yesterday: bonds steadied after long-dated debt from the US to France and the UK retreated Tuesday, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries little changed at 4.27%. $70 billion of 5Y notes will be auctioned at 1pm ET; yesterday’s 2Y auction saw strong demand closing 1.5bp through. The USD jumps to the highest since Friday's Jackson Hole dovish pivot, with the Euro sliding to a 3 week low as attention turns to the political mess in Europe, and gold continues to trade rangebound. The market’s focus is on NVDA today (our preview is here).

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Nvidia +0.6%, Microsoft +0.2%, Tesla +0.1%, Apple little changed, Amazon little changed, Meta -0.2%, Alphabet -0.3%).

• Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) gains 4.9% with the company to replace Sarepta Therapeutics in the S&P MidCap 400 effective Sept. 2.
• MongoDB (MDB) shares soar 31% after the software company reported second-quarter results that were much stronger than expected. It also raised its full-year forecast.
• nCino (NCNO) gains 11% after reporting adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Okta (OKTA) is up 5.4% after the software company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.

There’s been plenty to rattle markets in recent days, including French political turmoil and the Trump administration’s attacks on the Fed, as well as fresh tariff threats. But investors are now focusing on Nvidia’s earnings, due after the bell (our full preview is here). The chipmaking giant is expected to provide clues on the sustainability of massive AI spending, and how the US-China rivalry is limiting growth. Options currently imply a 6.1% swing in the stock, which would represent a move of roughly $270 billion in either direction in market value, larger than about 95% of the S&P 500 companies.

“Nvidia is the story of the week. We’ve seen some erosion of the AI premium, so this is an important number to determine whether the AI story has got further to go,” said Guy Miller, chief strategist at Zurich Insurance Group. “This could either allow the technology cycle, the AI dream, to continue, or it could get significantly dented.”

Dimming the excitement is uncertainty over how much business Nvidia will be able to do in China. The US government has curbed China’s access to Nvidia products on national security grounds. While the Trump administration recently eased some of those export restrictions, Beijing has pressed domestic customers to seek alternative suppliers. 

“A miss could spark meaningful volatility, while a positive surprise would likely see the major indexes make a run at all-time highs,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. 

Elsewhere, in a reminder of the lingering tariff threat to global trade and inflation, Trump’s 50% levy on most Indian imports took effect Wednesday, penalizing the country for buying Russian oil. In Europe, the EU aims to fast-track legislation by the end of the week to scrap all tariffs on US industrial goods — a Trump demand before Washington lowers duties on the bloc’s car exports.

In Europe, The Stoxx 600 is steady after giving up earlier gains. The CAC 40 outperforms with a 0.4% rise even as the OAT-bund spreads widens slightly.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined, weighed down by a sudden drop in Chinese equities, as an absence of new reasons to buy paved the way for profit-taking. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped as much as 1.1%, with Tencent, Woolworths Group and Meituan the biggest drags on the gauge. Major equity indexes in the region were mixed, with those in China and Hong Kong dropping, while the Philippines and Taiwan were among the top gainers. Chinese equities slid in the afternoon session, reversing an earlier advance. One reason for the reversal may have been the fact that chipmaker Cambricon Technologies Corp. briefly became the country’s most expensive onshore stock, which then triggered some profit taking. Chinese officials are seeking to manage bubble risks as the rally extends. Sinolink Securities Co. raised its margin deposit ratio for new client financing to 100%, becoming the first broker to introduce tightening measures amid surging interest in stocks.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.3% as the greenback strengthens versus its G-10 peers. The kiwi is the weakest, falling 0.5% while the Canadian dollar is the most resilient, slipping just 0.1%.

In rates, the Treasury curve steepens further following Tuesday’s front-end rally, stoked in part by strong demand for 2-year note auction. However, new 2-year note’s yield dipped below 3.65%, the lowest for the tenor since early May. Supply cycle continues with $70 billion auction of 5-year notes, the largest of the seven nominal coupon sales, at 1 p.m. New York time. Yields are within 1bp of Tuesday’s closing levels; the 10-year near 4.27%; swap contracts linked to future Fed rate decisions continue to fully price in one quarter-point rate cut this year in October and a second one by year-end.

In commodities, WTI crude futures fall 0.4% to $63 a barrel. Spot gold drops $12. Bitcoin is down 0.5%.

US economic data calendar is blank; second estimate of 2Q GDP is ahead Thursday, July personal income and spending (includes PCE price indexes) Friday. Fed speaker slate includes Richmond Fed President Barkin repeating his Aug. 12 remarks on the economy (time TBD). Nvidia’s earnings after the US close will be the main highlight. 

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini little changed
• Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
• Russell 2000 mini -0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX -0.3%
• CAC 40 +0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.26%
• VIX +0.2 points at 14.77
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.3% at 1208.98
• euro -0.4% at $1.159
• WTI crude -0.4% at $63.01/barrel

Top Overnight News

• New tariffs on Indian goods, the highest in Asia, took effect at 12:01 a.m. in Washington on Wednesday, doubling the existing 25% duty on Indian exports: BBG 
• Cracker Barrel said it is reverting to its “Old Timer” logo after a rebrand ignited a culture war. “We said we would listen, and we have. Our new logo is going away and our ‘Old Timer’ will remain,” the company said Tuesday. Cracker Barrel’s shares jumped more than 9% in after-hours trading.
• Musk’s Starship carries out successful space mission after multiple failures. Giant SpaceX rocket’s 10th test flight deploys dummy satellites and reinforces billionaire’s dominance of commercial space flight: FT
• Exxon Mobil Corp. held talks with Russia’s state-controlled oil company about returning to its Sakhalin-1 oil development: WSJ
• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick sparked a minor rally in shares of defense contractors with his suggestion that the US might take ownership stakes in some of them, even as industry analysts warned the idea poses serious conflict-of-interest concerns: CNBC
• Why the Democrats are losing post-industrial America. Former steel town of Bethlehem, Pennsylvania will be crucial battleground in next year’s midterms and the 2028 White House race: FT
• US offers air and intelligence support to postwar force in Ukraine. Washington prepared to contribute surveillance, command and control and air defence assets, say European officials: FT
• China’s industrial companies saw their profits fall at a slower pace in July, with industrial profits declining 1.5% last month from a year earlier, Bloomberg Economics had forecast a decline of 5.8%: BBG
• Cambricon Technologies Corp. swung to a record profit in the first half, reflecting a wave of demand for Chinese chips after Beijing encouraged the use of homegrown technology in a post-DeepSeek AI boom: BBG
• Ukraine to allow young men to leave the country. Change to border rules aims to address high number of males being sent abroad by their parents before they reach 18: FT
• Microsoft Investigating Employees After Gaza Protest Locks Down Building. The tech company is weighing disciplinary measures for employees who occupied President Brad Smith’s office in protest of Microsoft’s relationship with the Israeli government during its war in Gaza: WSJ
• America’s most senior envoy in Pakistan has told the South Asian nation that US companies are showing “strong interest” in its oil and gas sector: BBG
• French assets hit by prospect of government collapse. Investors warn government is likely to lose a snap confidence vote on September 8: FT
• Trump media group in $6bn deal to buy Crypto.com tokens. Venture will be the ‘first and largest publicly traded CRO treasury company’: FT
• US tariff threat over Indian imports of Russian oil could backfire. If New Delhi reduced its purchases to zero, oil prices and inflation would jump: FT

Top Corporate News

• Royal Bank of Canada beat estimates on strong performance across its biggest businesses and as the firm set aside less money than expected to cover possible loan losses, a rebound from notable misses on credit earlier this year.
• Newmont Corp., the world’s largest gold miner, is studying plans to drive down costs that could lead to deep job cuts.
• MongoDB Inc. soared 29% in premarket trading after the software company reported second-quarter results well above expectations and significantly raised its forecast, with analysts at Citi calling the report a “blowout” that showed a strong AI contribution.
• Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. said it’s getting rid of a new logo that had sparked controversy and prompted a slump in its share price.
• Meituan’s profit got wiped out in a price-based battle with rivals Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and JD.com Inc., the most striking sign yet that its longstanding dominance in a lucrative home market is under threat.
• Nikon Corp.’s shares surged 21% after Bloomberg reported that EssilorLuxottica SA, the maker of Ray-Ban sunglasses, is exploring a potential deal to increase its stake in the Japanese optical equipment manufacturer.
• Rio Tinto Group’s new chief executive officer has combined some of its biggest businesses as he looks to simplify the world’s No. 2 miner.
• Vitol Group is set to load the first cargo of Syrian crude oil since the lifting of western sanctions on Damascus as the country’s energy industry attempts to recover of more than a decade of destruction from armed conflict.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump is considering quickly announcing a nominee to replace Fed Governor Cook with Stephen Miran and former World Bank President Malpass potential candidates, according to WSJ citing sources.
• US Senate panel is preparing to hold a hearing next week on Trump's Fed pick Stephen Miran for the seat vacated by former Fed governor Kugler.
• The Trump administration is reviewing options for exerting more influence over the Federal Reserve’s 12 regional banks that would potentially extend its reach beyond personnel appointments in Washington, according to Bloomberg citing sources.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly in the green but with trade rangebound amid recent Fed independence concerns and as participants braced for NVIDIA's earnings. ASX 200 was kept afloat amid outperformance in the mining and materials industries, although gains are capped by heavy losses in consumer staples and tech, with supermarket operator Woolworths suffering a double-digit percentage drop after it reported a 19% decline in profits. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively, swinging between gains and losses before eventually recovering on currency weakness. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lacked firm conviction as the focus turns to earnings releases with the big banks set to report tomorrow, while participants are also awaiting the resumption of US-China talks later in the week.

Top Asian News

• Chinese Commerce Ministry official Sheng Qiuping said China is to announce policies to broaden services consumption in September.
• Mitsubishi Motor (7211 JT) cuts guidance (JPY): net seen at 10bln (prev. 40bln); operating at 70bln (prev. 100bln), recurring 60bln (prev. 90bln); Co. cites US tariffs, decline in sales volume, increase in selling expenses, competition, inflation.

European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) opened modestly firmer across the board, but sentiment did dip a little bit off best levels to currently show a mixed picture. European sectors hold a slight positive bias. Consumer Products takes the top spot joined thereafter by Healthcare whilst Banks lag; the latter pressured by Commerzbank (-2.6%) and Deutsche Bank (-2.5%) after the pair received broker downgrades.

Top European News

• UK's Ofgem raises energy price cap by 2% for Oct-Dec (vs exp. 1% by forecaster Cornwall Insight).
• EU is preparing emergency measures to support the ailing aluminium industry amid recycling plants in the bloc shutting down capacity due to US producers paying more for European scrap metal, according to FT.
• SNB's Martin said the SNB does not see a risk of deflationary developments and forecasts show a jump in inflation in coming quarters, adds inflation dynamics in Switzerland should not be dramatically disrupted by recent dollar movements. Martin added the current Swiss franc value is more due to dollar weakness than franc strength, but forex market interventions may be necessary to ensure price stability. The SNB currently has no reason to increase or reduce gold holdings. The bar for taking rates into negative territory is higher than for cutting rates when above zero.
• UK ONS said June 2025 Producer output Price inflation estimated to be -1.0% Y/Y.

FX

• DXY is on a firmer footing and continuing to gain this morning amid a weaker EUR (see below) and following the prior day's marginal losses owing to Fed independence concerns after President Trump moved to fire Fed Governor Cook who will be challenging the attempt in court. On top of that, it was also reported that the Trump administration is reviewing options for exerting more influence over the Federal Reserve’s regional banks that would potentially extend its reach beyond personnel appointments in Washington. DXY trades in a 98.24-98.70 range.
• EUR/USD pared recent gains amid a lack of fresh catalysts from the bloc and with France facing political uncertainty. Losses accumulated for the EUR despite a lack of headlines around the European equity open, with market contacts noting of potential stops tripped under 1.1600 after the pair found support near the level in the prior two session. German GfK Consumer Sentiment did little to sway the EUR at the time, which printed below expectations. EUR/USD currently sits in a 1.1578-1.1651 range.
• USD/JPY steadily advanced towards the 148.00 handle as the dollar regained poise with newsflow on the lighter end, but the pair influenced by a rebound in the Buck. USD/JPY trades in a 147.29-147.97 range.
• GBP is softer amid the firmer Dollar but losses cushioned by a weaker EUR. On the inflation front, UK's Ofgem raises energy price cap by 2% for Oct-Dec (vs exp. 1% by forecaster Cornwall Insight). The price cap limits the amount suppliers can charge per unit of energy and is revised every three months. Cable trades in a 1.3431-1.3482 parameter and sandwiched between its 50 DMA (1.3493) and 100 DMA (1.3436).
• AUD/USD failed to sustain the initial knee-jerk uplift seen following hot Monthly CPI data and stronger-than-expected Construction Work which feeds into Australia's GDP data.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1108 vs exp. 7.1559 (Prev. 7.1188)

Fixed Income

• USTs traded with a negative bias earlier but caught a slight bid as the risk tone deteriorated a touch; in a very narrow 112-02+ to 112-06+ range. Price action overnight was lacklustre, as US paper took a breather following the bull steepening seen on Tuesday, spurred by US President Trump’s move to oust Fed Governor Cook. Today’s session has seen yields rise across the curve, generally to a similar degree. Recent newsflow has not really had too much of an impact on price action today; US President Trump is considering quickly announcing a nominee to replace Fed Governor Cook with Stephen Miran and former World Bank President Malpass potential candidates, according to WSJ citing sources.
• Bunds are outperforming vs peers; initial trade was sloppy in-fitting with global peers but has recently picked up a little to trade higher by a handful of ticks. Currently trading at the upper end of a 129.33 to 129.71 range. The docket is void of any pertinent European data/ECB speakers. German GfK earlier saw sentiment drop a little from the prior, and more than expected. Germany's new 2032 line which was very weak, had little impact on price action.
• Gilt price action today has been dictated by global peers; initially opened lower amid the subdued trade seen in USTs/Bunds, but then reversed, but without a clear driver. Currently higher by around 17 ticks, and trades in a 90.26-62 range.
• UK sells GBP 5bln 4.375% 2028 Gilt: b/c 3.16x (prev. 3.71x), average yield 3.991% (prev. 3.941%) & tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.2bps).
• Germany sells EUR 2.675bln vs exp. EUR 4.0bln 2.50% 2032 Bund: b/c 1.2x, average yield 2.46% and retention 33.13%.

Commodities

• Crude futures have tilted lower following a flat overnight session and after retreating throughout the prior day and with demand not helped by the narrower-than-expected headline crude draw in private sector inventory data, while there were also bearish views on oil including from US President Trump who thinks oil will fall beneath the USD 60/bbl level soon and with Goldman Sachs forecasting Brent to decline to the low USD 50s by late 2026. WTI currently resides in a 62.99-63.46/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.40-66.91/bbl range.
• Spot gold pulled back from near the USD 3,400/oz level after advancing yesterday amid a softer dollar. The yellow metal has been unfazed by the recent bout of Dollar strength, suggesting deteriorating risk across the market. Spot gold trades in a USD 3,373.78-3,393.55/oz parameter within Tuesday's 3,351.33-3,393.75/oz range.
• Softer trade across base metals amid the deteriorating risk and broader Dollar strength. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,785.00-9,865.00/t range.
• US President Trump thinks oil prices will break below USD 60/bbl soon.
• US Private Energy Inventories (bbls): Crude -1.0mln (exp. -1.9mln), Distillate -1.5mln (exp. +0.9mln), Gasoline -2.1mln (exp. -2.2mln), Cushing -0.5mln.
• Kazakhstan holds talks to resume oil transit via BTC, according to Tass citing the energy ministry; oil supplies to Europe are proceeding without delays.
• Two Chinese investors are interested in taking a stake in Vietnam’s largest tungsten business, via Reuters citing sources.
• Ukraine's Energy Ministry said Russia attacked energy and gas transit infrastructure in six Ukrainian regions overnight.

Geopolitics - Middle East

• US special envoy Witkoff said they are negotiating multiple entries into peace accords with Israel, while Witkoff said President Trump will chair a meeting on Gaza at the White House on Wednesday.
• US Secretary of State Rubio is to meet with Israeli Foreign Minister Sa'ar at the State Department on Wednesday.
• Hamas said all Palestinians killed by Israel in Gaza’s Nasser Hospital attack on Monday were civilians and that two of the six Palestinians identified by Israel as alleged militants were killed in separate attacks away from the hospital.
• WSJ's Norman posts "If SnapBack happens this week, very strong odds it happens tomorrow"; in relation to the Iranian snapback mechanism. "If no SnapBack, either things change dramatically or extension. Odds of dropping SnapBack without extension are tiny at this point. There is still a very real possibility that SnapBack triggered but extension agreed during 30-day process. Depends on Iran".

Geopolitics - Ukraine

• US special envoy Witkoff said he is meeting with Ukrainians in New York this week and that Russian President Putin made a good-faith effort to engage.
• "Moscow: No agreement yet to upgrade the level of Russian and Ukrainian negotiating delegations", according to Al Arabiya.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russians are currently sending negative signals regarding meetings and further developments.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Aug 22 MBA Mortgage Applications -0.5%, prior -1.4%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets had a very eventful session yesterday, as concerns mounted about the Federal Reserve’s independence, whilst French assets came under fresh pressure ahead of the upcoming confidence vote. So that led to some pretty big milestones, and with investors pricing in faster rate cuts, the US 2yr inflation swap rose to 3.05%, marking its highest level since late-2022 when inflation was still above 6% and the Fed were hiking aggressively. Meanwhile in Europe, the reappraisal of sovereign risk meant that the 10yr French yield closed just 6bps above its Italian counterpart, which is the smallest gap between the two since 2003. So that’s a huge turnaround relative to most of the period since the Euro Crisis, as the spread between the two never fell beneath 50bps until late last year. Bear in mind we’ve also got Nvidia’s earnings after the US close tonight, so there’s plenty on the agenda right now. 

We’ll start with the Fed, as investors are watching closely after President Trump’s letter on Monday night that he was removing Lisa Cook from the Board of Governors “effective immediately”. In terms of the latest, Cook’s lawyer, Abbe David Lowell, said yesterday that they would be filing a lawsuit challenging the firing. And later in the day, the Fed issued a statement reiterating that Fed governors “may be removed by the president only “for cause””, but that the Fed would “abide by any court decision” resulting from Cook’s challenge. 

The move comes as President Trump is seeking to reshape the Federal Reserve in his direction, and yesterday he commented how “We’ll have a majority, very shortly so that’ll be great once we have a majority, and housing is going to swing and it’s going to be great”. Indeed, of the seven currently on the Board of Governors, two of the appointees from President Trump’s first term (Bowman and Waller) have already dissented in favour of rate cuts, and CEA Chair Stephen Miran has been nominated to fill Adriana Kugler’s old seat. So if Cook were replaced as well, then a majority of the Board could be in favour of rate cuts after Miran’s appointment, even before Chair Powell’s term comes to an end.
Later on, multiple press reports added to this theme. For instance, the WSJ reported that President Trump was considering quickly announcing a replacement for Cook, with former World Bank President David Malpass being one candidate whom President Trump had discussed. Interestingly, Bloomberg separately reported that the administration was looking at ways to have more influence over the Fed’s 12 regional banks, which is important given that 5 of the 12 regional bank Presidents sit on the FOMC at a given time. This is particularly noteworthy at the moment, because every five years, the 12 regional bank presidents come up for approval by the Board of Governors. The next five-year approval is slated for Q1 next year, and theoretically a majority could refuse to approve some of the regional voters.

Our US economists looked in more depth at some of these issues in a note yesterday (link here ). They don’t anticipate a titanic shift in near-term policy, as Cook had been one of the most dovish officials on the Committee already. However, there could be broader implications for the Fed, as it only takes a majority of the Board of Governors (rather than the wider FOMC that also includes 5 of the regional Fed Presidents) to adjust the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB). Historically, the IORB has been set at an appropriate level to maintain the fed funds rate within the target set by the FOMC. But at least theoretically, a Board that didn’t agree with the FOMC could set IORB at a lower level.

For now at least, markets have reacted broadly in line with other episodes where the Fed’s independence has been questioned this year. So we saw a significant yield curve steepening yesterday, with the 2yr yield (-4.5bps) down to 3.68% (helped by a strong auction), the 10yr yield (-1.4bps) down to 4.26%, and the 30yr yield (+3.0bps) moving up to 4.92%. Indeed, for the 2s30s curve, that’s now the steepest it’s been since January 2022. Those moves came as investors priced in a more dovish path for near-term policy, with futures dialling up the expected rate cuts over the months ahead. For example, 109bps of cuts were priced in by the June 2026 meeting at the close, up +5.3bps on the day. So that helped put downward pressure on the dollar index, which weakened by -0.21%, whilst the prospect of more inflation helped push gold prices up +0.82%.

Interestingly, equities advanced despite the news, with the S&P 500 (+0.41%) closing just -0.04% beneath its record high. In part, that was because investors were still unsure if there’d actually be a radical policy shift at the Fed. But several data points also helped to support risk appetite, as they leant against the idea that the US economy was slowing down, particularly after the recent jobs report. For example, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading was better than expected in August, at 97.4 (vs. 96.5 expected). Similarly, core capital goods orders were up +1.1% in July (vs. +0.2% expected), and the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index moved up to -7 (vs. -11 expected).

Over in Europe, however, it was a very different story as fears continued to mount about the fiscal situation in France. As a reminder, Prime Minister Bayrou has called a confidence vote for September 8, but the National Rally, France Unbowed and the Socialists have all said they’ll oppose the government. So as it stands, the government would fall, and that would open the way for a new PM, or even fresh legislative elections. So that’s reinforced existing concerns about France’s deficit, and the country’s assets saw a clear underperformance yesterday. 

Those moves were evident across the board. For instance, France’s CAC 40 (-1.70%) built on its -1.59% decline on the Monday, with banks including Société Générale (-6.84%), Crédit Agricole (-5.44%) and BNP Paribas (-4.23%) seeing even bigger losses. That outpaced the Europe-wide STOXX 600 (-0.83%), and means the CAC 40 is now up just +4.46% this year, making it one of the worst performers among the major equity indices in local currency terms. Likewise for sovereign bonds, French 10yr yields were only down -1.1bps, compared with larger falls for bunds (-3.4bps) and OATs (-3.8bps). So by the close, the Franco-German 10yr spread was up to 78bps, which is its widest since April. And significantly, the French 10yr yield closed just 6bps beneath its Italian counterpart, which is the tightest it’s been since 2003.   

Elsewhere in Europe, UK markets returned from their public holiday on Monday, with 10yr gilt yields up +4.9bps as they caught up with Monday’s moves elsewhere. We also heard from the BoE’s Mann, who was one of four members on the MPC (out of nine) who voted against a cut at the recent meeting. She said that a “more persistent hold on Bank Rate is appropriate right now”, and investors remain sceptical that there’ll be another rate cut this year. Indeed, the likelihood of another rate cut by the December meeting fell to 42% by the close, down from 48% the day before.

Overnight in Asia, the mood has generally remained positive, with investors turning their focus to Nvidia’s earnings later today. So that’s meant that most of the major equity indices are trading higher, and the CSI 300 (+0.72%) is currently on track for its highest closing level since 2022. Elsewhere, there’ve been more modest gains, including for the Shanghai Comp (+0.33%), the Hang Seng (+0.06%), the Nikkei (+0.36%), and the KOSPI (+0.11%). And US equity futures are also pointing slightly higher, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.07%) up enough to push the index to a new record if realised.

Elsewhere this morning, data has also shown an unexpectedly large jump in Australia’s inflation, with CPI up to +2.8% in July (vs. +2.3% expected). Moreover, the trimmed mean measure also moved up to +2.7%, having been at +2.1% in June. That’s the highest headline inflation in 12 months, and investors have dialled back the likelihood of a rate cut at the RBA’s next meeting in response, with the probability of a cut now down to 22%.

To the day ahead now, and it’s a quiet one on the calendar. Nvidia’s earnings after the US close will be the main highlight. Otherwise, data releases include the GfK consumer confidence reading from Germany. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/27/2025 - 08:51