Biden Spending $300 Million On Sanctuary Cities

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is distributing $300 million to sanctuary cities that provide services like shelter and food to illegal immigrants amid a massive increase in incursions across the southern border.

The $300 million in grants will be provided through the Shelter and Services Program (SSP), according to an April 12 press release. SSP offers funding to non-federal entities like NGOs and local governments that provide support to illegal immigrants released into the United States by the DHS. Out of the $300 million, $275 million will be distributed in the first allocation, with the remaining $25 million to be allocated later this year to meet operational requirements.

“The initial funding will be available to 55 grant recipients for temporary shelter and other eligible costs associated with migrants awaiting the outcome of their immigration proceedings.”

Costs covered under the program include expenses related to providing shelter, food, transportation, medical care, and personal hygiene for illegal immigrants. Other costs like modification of existing facilities, clothing, translation services, outreach information, and management and administration expenses are also covered.

In addition to the $300 million funding, the DHS also announced $340.9 million for the SSP competitive grant program.

Last year, over $780 million was distributed through SSP and another program that went to organizations and sanctuary cities across the country that provided services to illegal immigrants. Well-known sanctuary cities include Los Angeles, Chicago, New Orleans, New York City, and San Francisco.

The Biden administration’s latest funding splurge comes as the influx of illegal immigrants into the United States has ballooned in recent years.

According to data from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), border patrol agents encountered 1.73 million illegals at the southwest land border in fiscal year 2021. This number rose to 2.37 million in fiscal year 2022 and then to 2.47 million in 2023. For the first five months of this fiscal year, 1.34 million encounters have already been registered.

Between October 2021 and March 2024, the total number of encounters stands at over 7.9 million illegal immigrants.

During an April 10 press conference, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said he estimates that nearly 16 million illegal immigrants entered the United States under the Biden administration.

“Since Joe Biden went into the Oval Office, it began on day one, they began to open that border wide,” he said. The Democrat government has taken more than 60 executive and agency actions to “open the border wide and send the welcome message to everybody around the globe, including violent criminals and terrorists and foreign nationals ... coming here to do us harm.”

Under the Trump administration, the number of people on the terrorism watchlist caught attempting to illegally enter the United States was 11. This number has surged to 351 under the Biden administration.

“This is a disastrous situation,” Mr. Johnson said. "It’s a catastrophe that was caused by intentional policy choices.”

Biden’s Pro-Immigration Policies

Back in January 2023, the Biden administration announced the Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans (CHNV) program that allows people from the four nations the right to live and work lawfully in the United States for a period of two years under a legal mechanism called “humanitarian parole.”

In an April 12 press release, CBP said that more than 404,000 individuals from these four nations who arrived via commercial flights “were granted parole under these processes.”

According to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit filed by the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), “hundreds of thousands of inadmissible aliens from foreign airports” were ferried into some 43 American airports in the past year through CBP-approved secretive flights.

CBP did not reveal the names of the 43 American airports that received 320,000 illegal immigrants last year. Instead, the agency admitted that the process was creating law enforcement vulnerabilities.

“The public can’t know the receiving airports because those hundreds of thousands of CBP-authorized arrivals have created such ‘operational vulnerabilities’ at airports that ‘bad actors’ could undermine law enforcement efforts to ‘secure the United States border’ if they knew the volume of CBP One traffic processed at each port of entry,” CIS wrote in a post.

Former President Donald Trump has harshly criticized the Biden administration’s border policies, vowing to institute stronger measures if he returns to the White House.

Speaking to reporters in late February, President Trump called President Biden “the worst president our country has ever had.”

“He’s allowing thousands and thousands of people to come in from China, Iran, Yemen, the Congo, Syria, and a lot of other nations, many nations are not very friendly to us,” the former president said.

“He’s transported the entire columns of fighting-aged men and ... they look like warriors to me. Something’s going on. It’s bad.”

During a rally in Ohio last month, President Trump promised swift action on the illegal immigration issue. “On day one, my administration will terminate every open border policy of the Biden administration and we will begin the largest domestic deportation operation in American history.”

“Nobody’s been hurt by Joe Biden’s migrant invasion more than our great African American and Hispanic American communities ... because they’re taking your jobs and they’re creating lots of problems,” he said.

The millions of illegal immigrants flooding into the United States also puts a strain on America’s Social Security program, which would end up negatively affecting the lives of retirees, the former president stated.

“Your Social Security will be destroyed by the people coming in ... There’s too many of them. It’s not sustainable. Joe Biden is costing you Medicare and he’s costing you your Social Security.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/15/2024 - 18:20

Tepco Loads Fuel Rods In World's Largest Nuclear Power Plant As Atomic Era Reignites

The world is finally realizing, after trying to rid itself of nuclear power following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, that the power of the atom will be the heart of clean, reliable electricity generation - not unreliable solar and wind.

The latest sign that a nuclear renaissance is beginning to gain steam is news from Bloomberg on Monday morning that Tokyo Electric Power Co. will be loading fuel rods into one of the reactors at the Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear plant in Niigata prefecture. 

The Kashiwazaki Kariwa is significant because it's the world's largest nuclear power plant, with a net capacity of 7,965 megawatts of electricity. Loading the No. 7 reactor with fuel rods is a sign that the power plant could be restarted soon.  

Japan's Nuclear Regulation Authority on Monday approved the plans to insert fuel rods at the No. 7 reactor at the site in Niigata prefecture. The plant will still need to complete additional inspections and win consent from the local governor — which is not guaranteed — before Tepco can restart generation.

Approval for fuel loading is a step forward for Tepco's facility, which has been halted since the Fukushima nuclear disaster brought all of Japan's reactors offline. Kashiwazaki Kariwa has faced additional complications to a restart after security breaches in 2021.-Bloomberg

The planned restart of Japan's atomic fleet comes as power grids worldwide (maybe not China and or India) are undertaking massive decarbonization efforts to lower emissions. 

In the US, the federal government recently announced that it would provide a $1.5 billion loan to restart a nuclear power plant in southwestern Michigan for the first time. NJ-based Holtec International acquired the 800-megawatt Palisades plant in 2022 with plans to dismantle it. Still, with support from the state of Michigan and the Biden administration, the focus has shifted to restarting the nuclear power plant next year. 

And Patti Poppe, the chief executive officer of Pacific Gas & Electric in California, said just weeks ago, "Nuclear should be part of the future," adding the state's only nuclear power plant - Diablo Canyon - should be granted a license to expand its lifetime. 

Governments are beginning to realize (and Wall Street) that nuclear power is the single largest source of reliable, carbon-free electricity. It will play a vital role in powering the economy, whether that's AI data centers (read "The Next AI Trade") or electric cars and trucks. 

Still, restarting plants is not easy. Also, keep an eye on uranium futures.

And uranium stocks. 

Nuclear will be powering up America for the digital age. We outlined this as early as December 2020 in a note titled "Buy Uranium: Is This The Beginning Of The Next ESG Craze."

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/15/2024 - 18:00

More Than A Dozen Major Media Outlets Call On Biden, Trump To Commit To Presidential Debate

Authored by Alice Giordano via The Epoch Times,

More than a dozen major media outlets released a statement this morning asking President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump to commit to a presidential debate.

“If there’s one thing Americans can agree on during this polarized time, it is that the stakes of this election are exceptionally high,” the joint April 14 statement states.

“Amidst that backdrop, there is simply no substitute for the candidates debating with each other, and before the American people, their visions for the future of our nation.”

The Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox, News Nation, USA Today, ABC, NBC, PBS, NPR, and C-SPAN are among the media outlets that released the statement. 

 

The call comes at the heels of baited comments former President Trump made at a campaign rally on April 13 in Schnecksville, Pennsylvania, toward President Biden about debating him.

 

“I’m calling on Crooked Joe Biden to debate anytime, anywhere, any place,” he said, conjuring up a swell of cheers from supporters. “We have to debate because our country is going in the wrong direction so badly. While it is a little bit typical early, we have to debate, we have to explain to the American people what the hell is going on.”

President Trump made similar comments at his April 2 campaign speech in Green Bay, Wisconsin. “You can see we have an empty podium right here to my right. You know what that is? That’s for Joe Biden,” President Trump said.

At both appearances, to drive his point home, President Trump pointed to a mic standing holding a Trump-branded sign that read, “Anytime. Anywhere. Anyplace.”

He also stated at a Georgia campaign event that “it was for the good of our nation” for President Biden to agree to a debate. 

The Biden administration, on other hand, have bucked calls for a presidential debate, citing concerns it would not be a “fair” bout given the uncertainty of who will host a matchup between the current president and former president in their bid for The White House.

The day after his March 8 State Of The Union address last month, Biden brushed off questions by reporters about President Trump’s continued challenge to a debate by saying “it would depend on his behavior.”

In 2020, the two engaged in two very heated debates. 

They were peppered with personal and political assaults, with the former vice president saying to President Trump at one point, “Will you shut up, man.”

While Republicans have razzed President Biden for not debating the former president, Democrats leaders have cautioned President Biden not to climb on stage for a political spar with the MAGA leader.

 “I would think twice about it,” Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) reportedly told The Hill last month. 

Mr. Durbin clarified that his advice was based on not giving President Trump an opportunity to spread his “extremism” rather than concern that President Biden wouldn’t be able to stand up to President Trump in a match.

At the same time, Democrats leaders are running damage control for President Biden by pointing out that President Trump refused to debate any of his GOP rivals for the party nomination in the primaries—just as he did in 2016 before going on to eventually win the presidency.

Recently, in a televised interview, President Biden’s former chief of staff, Ron Klain, said he believes the president would be “certainly happy to debate President Trump if the MAGA candidate ”would agree to the right set of basic instructions that his predecessor has agreed to.”

Mr. Klain said President Trump “broke the rules everywhere he could” during the 2020 debate between him and President Biden.

“Last time, ”it was more of a spectacle than a debate,” he said.

Not having two committed candidates has not thwarted The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) from scheduling presidential debates. 

According to its website, it has already slated three, 90-minute debates, with its “first presidential debate” scheduled for Sept. 16 at Texas State University in San Marcos.

A second debate is scheduled for Sept. 25 at Lafayette College in Easton, Pennsylvania, and a third at The University of Utah in Salt Lake City on Oct. 9—just a few weeks ahead of the general election.

The commission has also scheduled a vice presidential debate for Sept. 25 at Lafayette College in Easton even though President Trump has yet to announce his pick for a running mate.

“The United States’ general election debates, watched live worldwide, are a model for many other countries: the opportunity to hear and see leading candidates address serious issues in a fair and neutral setting,” CPD co-chairs Frank Fahrenkopf and Antonia Hernandez said in a recent statement on the presidential debates. 

The CPD, founded in 1987, emphasizes itself as a nonpartisan organization that receives no government funding. 

The CPD said all the debates will begin at 9 p.m. Eastern standard time without commercial interruption, with the moderators and format to be announced.

In their call to the two presidents to pledge to participate in presidential debates, the national media organizations cited the historic tradition of presidential debates in imploring the presumptive nominees to engage in “general election debates before November’s election.”

“General election debates have a rich tradition in our American democracy, having played a vital role in the very presidential election of the past 50 years, dating to 1976. In each of those elections, tens of millions tuned in to watch the candidates debating side by side, in a competition of ideas for the votes of American citizens,” they wrote. 

The increasing pressure for presidential debate has incited a hailstorm of debate of its own on social media.

In an April 11 post on X, Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) said the real reason President Biden hasn’t committed to debating President Trump is because he knows his mental cognitivism is too much in decline. 

“He can’t even get through a brief press conference without scripted answers,” he posted.

Biden supporters in response scoffed at the idea that the former president would beat the president in a debate.

An anti-Trump website TheSocialTruth—a reverse of the former president’s Truth Social platform—said in an April 14 post, “Trump knows if he debates, he’d fall apart and Biden would wipe the floor with him.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/15/2024 - 17:40

"The Vessel" Hudson Yards Sculpture To Reopen With New Suicide Prevention Safeguards

The Vessel, a popular attraction in Manhattan's Hudson Yards, is set to reopen after closing in 2021 due to multiple suicides.

The beehive-like structure will now feature steel barriers on most upper levels to enhance safety, while the top level will stay closed, and the first two floors will remain fully accessible, according to the Gothamist.

These enclosures, designed to be cut-proof and weather-resistant, aim to prevent further tragedies after the reopening.

The sculpture, featuring approximately 2,500 steps and 80 landings, debuted in 2019 as part of the new Midtown West development. Shortly after its opening, a 19-year-old named Peter DeSalvo III died by suicide at the site.

Over the following 18 months, three more suicides occurred, including that of a 14-year-old boy in 2021, leading developers to close the stair access.

Related Companies spokesperson Kathleen Corless told the New York Times that the attraction will reopen after installing "floor-to-ceiling steel mesh" on several staircases. The company aims to maintain the distinctive appeal that has attracted millions worldwide, while enhancing safety, she said. 

"As one climbs up Vessel, the railings stay just above waist height all the way up to the structure’s top, but when you build high, folks will jump," Audrey Wachs told the New York Times. 

"It had designed safety barriers and expressed frustration with the developers’ resistance to installing them," an employee of Heatherwick Studio added.

Peter DeSalvo Jr., the father of the first person to die by suicide, told The New York Times: "All the deaths, including that of our son, could have been prevented if they had adequate safeguards."

Initially closed early in 2021, the report said that the Vessel had briefly reopened with new safety measures like suicide prevention signs and increased security, yet it closed again following another incident.

A specific reopening date has not been announced by Hudson Yards management. We're hoping it doesn't coincide with the next massive market crash...

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/15/2024 - 17:20

Deborah Birx Gets Her Close-Up

Authored by Bill Rice via The Brownstone Institute,

Most Americans will remember Dr. Deborah Birx as the “scarf lady” who served on the White House’s Covid Response Team beginning in February 2020.

According to a recently-released (but little-seen) 24-minute mini-documentary, it was Birx – even more so than Anthony Fauci – who was responsible for government “guidelines,” almost all of which proved to be unnecessary and disastrous for the country.

According to the documentary, the guidelines ran counter to President Trump’s initial comments on Covid, but ultimately “toppled the White House (and Trump) without a shot being fired.”

The mini-documentary (“It Wasn’t Fauci: How the Deep State Really Played Trump”) was produced by Good Kid Productions. Not surprisingly, the scathing 24-minute video has received relatively few views on YouTube (only 46,500 since it was published 40 days ago on Feb. 26).

I learned of the documentary from a colleague at Brownstone Institute, who added his opinion that “Birx (is) far more culpable than Fauci in the Covid disaster…Well worth the time to see the damage an utter non-scientist, CIA-connected, bureaucrat can do to make sure things are maximally bad.”

I agree; the significant role played by Birx in the catastrophic national response to Covid has not received nearly enough attention.

Brought in from out of Nowhere…

From the video presentation, viewers learn that Birx was added to the White House’s Coronavirus Task Force as its coordinator in latter February 2020.

Birx worked closely with Task Force chairman Vice President Mike Pence, a man one suspects will not be treated well by future historians.

According to the documentary, “career bureaucrats” like Birx somehow seized control of the executive branch of government and were able to issue orders to mayors and governors which effectively “shut down the country.”

These bureaucrats were often incompetent in their prior jobs as was Birx, who’d previously served as a scientist (ha!) in the Army before leading the government’s effort to “fight AIDS in Africa” (via the PEPFAR Program).

When Birx was installed as coordinator of Covid Response she simply rehashed her own playbook for fighting AIDS in Africa, say the filmmakers.

The three tenets of this response were:

1. “Treat every case of this virus as a killer.”

2. “Focus on children,” who, the public was told, were being infected and hospitalized in large numbers and were a main conduit for spreading the virus.

3. “Get to zero cases as soon as possible.” (The “Zero Covid” goal).

The documentary primarily uses quotes from Scott Atlas, the White House Task Force’s one skeptic, to show that all three tenets were false.

Argued Atlas: Covid was not a killer – or a genuine mortality risk – to “99.95 percent” of the population. Children had virtually zero risk of death or hospitalization from Covid. And there was no way to get to “zero cases.”

Atlas Didn’t Shrug, but was Ignored…

Furthermore, the documentary convincingly illustrates how the views of Atlas were ignored and how, at some point, his ability to speak to the press was curtailed or eliminated. 

For example, when Atlas organized a meeting for President Trump with Covid-response skeptics (including the authors of the Great Barrington Declaration) this meeting was schedule to last only five minutes.

The documentary also presents a report from the inspector general of the Department of State that was highly critical of Birx’s management style with the African “AIDS relief” program she headed. 

Among other claims, the report said she was “dictatorial” in her dealings with subordinates and often “issued threats” to those who disagreed with her approach.

Shockingly, this highly-critical report was published just a month before she was appointed medical coordinator of the Coronavirus Task Force.

A particularly distressing sound bite from Birx lets viewers hear her opinion on how controversial “guidance” might be implemented with little pushback.

According to Birx, she intentionally buried the more draconian elements of the lockdowns in text at the end of long documents, theorizing (correctly apparently) that most reporters or readers would just “skim” the document and would not focus on how extreme and unprecedented these mandates actually were.

The documentary points out that Birx’s prescriptions and those of President Trump were often in complete conflict.

Birx, according to the documentary, once pointed this out to Vice President Pence, who told her to keep doing what she believed.

Indeed, the Vice President gave Birx full use of Air Force 2 so she could more easily travel across the country, spreading her lockdown message to governors, mayors, and other influencers.

Several Covid skeptic writers, including Jeffrey Tucker of Brownstone Institute, have noted that President Trump himself went from an opponent of draconian lockdowns to an avid supporter of these responses in a period of just one or two days (the pivotal change happened on or around March 10th, 2020, according to Tucker).

Whoever or whatever caused this change in position, it does not seem to be a coincidence that this about-face happened shortly after Birx – a former military officer – was named to an important position on the Task Force.

(Personally, I don’t give Anthony Fauci a pass as I’ve always figured he’s a “dark master” at manipulating members of the science/medical/government complex to achieve his own desired results.)

This documentary highlights the crucial role played by Deborah Birx and, more generally, how unknown bureaucrats can make decisions that turn the world upside-down.

That is, most Americans probably think presidents are in charge, but, often, they’re really not. These real rulers of society, one suspects, would include members of the so-called Deep State, who have no doubt installed sycophants like Fauci and Birx in positions of power.

I definitely recommend this 24-minute video...

A Sample of Reader Comments…

I also enjoyed the Reader Comments that followed this video. The first comment is from my Brownstone colleague who brought this documentary to my attention:

“… As I said, things can change over the period of 20 years but in the case of Birx/Fauci, I do not believe so. I have never seen people entrenched in the bureaucracy change.”

Other comments from the people who have viewed the mini-documentary on YouTube:

“Pence needs to be held accountable.”

“What does Debbie’s bank account look like?”

“(The) final assessment of President Trump at the 23:30 mark is, while painful, accurate. He got rolled.”

“This is very hard to find on YouTube. You can literally search the title and it doesn’t come up.”

“Excellent summary, hope this goes viral. Lots of lessons to learn for future generations.”

“Eye opening. Great reporting.”

Post from One Month Ago…

“37 likes after 3 years of the most controversial and divisive action in recent history. How can this be?”

“Oh never mind. YouTube hid it from the public for years.”

“Probably hasn’t been taken down yet for that reason, relatively low views.”

“Thanks for this! Sounds like everyone below President Trump was on a power trip and I didn’t think it was possible to despise Pence more than I already do.”

“…the backing of CDC, legacy media, WHO and government schools, business folding in fear are ALL responsible. Accountability for every person and agency is paramount!”

“Should be noted that her work on AIDS in Africa was just as useless and damaging.”

“First, any mature, adult woman who speaks with that much vocal fry should be immediately suspect. And the glee with which she recounts her role at undermining POTUS is remarkable and repulsive. This woman should NEVER be allowed to operate the levers of power again.”

*  *  *

Republished from the author’s Substack

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/15/2024 - 17:00

Americans Pour Into Pawnshops, Selling Gold Jewelry As Price Surges

With gold trading at record highs, cash-strapped Americans are heading to pawnshops to sell their jewelry. 

“People are using gold as an ATM they never had,” King Gold & Pawn and Empire Gold Buyers owner Gene Furman tells Bloomberg. He says gold-selling traffic at his 5th Avenue location in New York City has more than tripled as gold has surged 17% off its 2024 low in February to now trade near $2,400 an ounce. 

While some just want to take advantage of the price surge, others are compelled by price inflation that's put them in a financial bind. "Prices are high, and I need cash,” 30-year-old IT specialist Branden Sabino tells Bloomberg, citing the burden of higher prices for food, rent and car insurance. A 55-year-old woman said she needed the money to pay for gas. 

Most are selling jewelry, including many offloading inherited items with sentimental value that's now apparently eclipsed by all-time highs in gold. House of Kahn Estate Jewelers' Tobina Kahn says younger Americans' fashion sensibilities are also a factor:

"Young people are not wearing grandma’s jewels. Most of the young people, they want an Apple watch. They don’t want a pocket watch. Sentimental is now out the door.”    

Of course, there are of plenty of gold-buyers in America too. Costco, which began selling one-ounce bars in October, is selling $100 to $200 million worth every month, according to a Wells Fargo estimate.

CNBC's analysis suggests the retailer is pricing the bars at 2% above the spot price. If you're an "executive member," you get a 2% reward, and those who use their Citigroup credit cards will receive 2% on top. 

A 1-ounce gold bar displayed at a Daytona Beach Costco (Clayton Park/News-Journal)

The pawnshop gold-sellers may wish they'd waited longer before parting with their rings and necklaces. Bank of America commodities strategist Michael Widmer is calling for gold to hit $3,000 by 2025 -- a roughly 25% advance from current levels. UBS foresees gold at "more than $4,000" within two to three years. 

BNP Paribas Fortis chief strategist Phillipe Gijsels and chief economist Koen De Leus tell Financial Times they see gold surging onward, reaching $4,000 "in the not-so-distant future...this isn't just an interest rate thing. People are hedging against a new world." 

Some of those people are the ones running central banks: In March, China padded its reserves with the precious metal for a 17th consecutive month, bringing its declared holdings to 72.74 million troy ounces. 

Lest you run off to the pawn shop yourself, consider that gold seemingly has powerful, twin-tailwinds: A US government whose debt has now gone parabolic, while a weaponized dollar explodes in its face. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/15/2024 - 16:40

Victor Davis Hanson: Gaming The 2024 Campaign

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

We have seen enough of the Biden-Trump race so far to predict what lies ahead over the next seven months of the campaign. Currently, the polls are about dead even. Trump, however, for now enjoys small leads in the majority of the fickle swing/purple states that will likely decide the election.

So here is what we should expect:

Biden

Biden has three major vulnerabilities and three major assets. His fate will depend on how these criteria play out.

First, on the negative side of the ledger, Biden suffers continual mental and physical decline, which is accelerating exponentially. His work week is now more off than on. Aides pray that he can get through a teleprompter without complete incoherence. His speech is so slurred, his syntax so bizarre that he seems to speak a language that is mostly indecipherable.

They rightly fear that any young attractive woman or even preteen might earn a trademark Biden weird call-out, a hair- or accustomed ear-blow, or even an attempted presidential too-long hug or neck nibble.

Steps pose an existential threat, given that the president is one trip away from oblivion. Biden is not even the diminished Biden of 2020, when, in his basement, he at least manipulated the COVID-19 lockdown to mask his infirmities and abbreviated schedules.

The odds are 50/50 whether Biden will even make it over the next five months to the August Democratic Convention. And, assuming that he does, can he rein in efforts to push him off the ticket?

Second, the Biden family is corrupt. Hunter still faces spring- and summer-long felony exposure in connection with his Biden-family brand of tax cheating. Joe knows that his own documents, first-hand witnesses, bank statements, Hunter’s emails, and testimonies from Hunter’s associates reveal that the otherwise talentless but high-living Biden extended family was surviving only by the sale of Senator, Vice President, and future President Joe Biden’s name—and his known willingness to pay fast and loose with legal and ethical constraints.

There is still some chance that, in the current impeachment investigations and trial, more incriminating evidence will emerge or turned witnesses will offer proof of Biden’s criminality. For now, Biden’s lawbreaking is completely dismissed by Attorney General Merrick Garland and by special counsel Robert Hur’s satirical-comedy-worthy argument that even overwhelming evidence pointing to Joe Biden’s criminal behavior cannot be prosecuted because of the president’s dementia.

Third, the hard-left Biden agenda is completely underwater. Not a single Biden administration issue or policy—the border, crime, inflation, energy, foreign policy, race relations, education—polls even 50 percent. Worse, Biden never addresses the inflation created by his massive spending program, the lawlessness in our streets since 2021, the spiking cost of gasoline, or the humiliation abroad, from Kabul to Kyiv to the Chinese balloon. His idea of how to combat inflation is akin to combating obesity by gaining 100 pounds, losing two, and—presto—announcing that obesity was abated.

He spiked racial polarization, proved indifferent to an epidemic of anti-Semitism, and fueled the national debt (an additional $1 trillion every 100 days).

Now Biden is warring on the Supreme Court—a dangerous precedent given that an assassin has already shown up at Justice Kavanaugh’s home, given that mobs have massed at various justices’ residences with impunity, given Sen. Schumer’s prior personal threats at the very doors of the court to Justices Kavanaugh and Gorsuch, and given left-wing rhetoric about packing the court.

All candidate Biden can do is either deny an open border, inflation, crime, racial tensions, and the Kabul humiliation—or claim that the successful policies of Trump, out of power for nearly four years, were responsible for all that crashed on Biden’s watch.

Biden, however, enjoys some natural advantages, most notably incumbency.

(Note that this was not much of an advantage to Trump himself in 2020, given the wild cards of the COVID-19 pandemic, the disastrous nationwide lockdown, and the mysterious workings of the Trump-hating administrative state. We remember the 11th-hour Pfizer declaration that there would be no pre-election announcement, as planned, of the success of Trump’s Operation Warp Speed vaccination initiative. Then, there was indeed an announcement—immediately after the election. And then there was the mysterious CIA/FBI arming of the Biden campaign, on the eve of the last debate and just days before Election Day, with the fake anti-Trump rebuttal of “Russian laptop disinformation.”)

Biden will pull every lever of incumbency, working the office of the presidency in the most Machiavellian and cynical of ways:

a) hoping to lower gas prices by not filling up the strategic petroleum reserve, jawboning illiberal and “pariah” oil producers to pump what he claims he hates, ordering Ukraine not to hit Russian refineries, and appeasing enemies like Iran to keep its oil flowing,

b) unconstitutionally sidestepping rulings of the Supreme Court to ensure more pre-election illegal student-loan-cancellation giveaways,

c) prodding the supposedly independent Federal Reserve to lower interest rates before November,

d) pressuring Mexico to tamp down illegal entries for a few months to serve their shared interests in defeating Trump.

A second asset is his army of satellites.

These include left-wing justices, weaponized federal, state, and local prosecutors, and Trump-biased jury pools. The left expects these to do what the effort to remove Trump’s name from the ballot did not: destroy the Republican candidate, financially and health-wise, and bind him with the Lilliputian ropes of Fani Willis, Letitia James, Alvin Bragg, and Jack Smith, who are eager to convict him through weaponized judges, juries, and a venomous media. They also include compromised election officials in urban counties in key swing states.

Biden cannot win unless 70-80 percent of voters in the key swing states do not vote on Election Day. Instead, their ballots must be mailed in, harvested, and curated without accustomed audit and without verification of whether voters are registered US citizens or have voted only once and done so legally.

And—his third major asset—Biden will also have billions of dollars more than Trump to pound home these themes in endless ads, social media shenanigans, and news censorship and blackouts.

Biden feels that he nevertheless must make the election hinge on destroying a monstrous, demonic, and hideous Donald Trump through any means necessary. Biden’s is not a positive campaign but will be waged by despising Donald Trump and all who support him. Expect more of those “semi-fascists”/ “ultra-MAGA” Phantom-of-the-Opera Biden hate speeches.

In the next seven months, the Biden effort will play out with three narratives:

1. Trump is a January 6th insurrectionist and dictator and will “destroy democracy,” though apparently without weaponizing the FBI or removing his opponents’ names from ballots or siccing right-wing prosecutors on his enemies.

2. Trump purportedly will kill women by banning all abortions while relegating non-whites to the pre-civil-rights era - despite leaving abortion up to the states, and likely gaining more Latino and Black voters than any prior Republican presidential candidate.

3. Then we will hear that Trump is a felon who belongs in jail.

All this is the message of the Biden campaign, period.

Trump

Trump likewise has both assets and liabilities. His vulnerabilities are mirror images of Biden’s advantages: he lacks incumbency and the powers that come with it; he does not have an army of officials on his side; and he will have a financial disadvantage.

We have no idea how many gag orders remain. How many late-summer days will Trump spend stuck in court? How many hundreds of millions of his dollars will be expropriated by out-of-control anti-Trump left-wing judges? Can Trump—or any candidate—successfully run with a $1 billion overhead in legal fees and fines and with critical days on the campaign trail diverted to left-wing, media-frenzied, blue-city courtrooms?

In addition, Trump is sometimes his own worst enemy. Trump, one could say, is running mostly against Trump. He knows that if he sticks solely to the agenda, contrasting Biden’s failures with his own past stellar record and future contract with America, he can win. He realizes that he must take the high road and talk idealistically rather than going low and getting angry.

But who could be expected to do so after being the victim of two unfair impeachments, left-wing lies like Russian collusion and disinformation, efforts to railroad him into prison with outrageously politicized legal vendettas, and attempts to remove his name from the ballot?

Trump’s advantages are clear.

First, his record: on foreign policy, inflation, and the economy. But most important for the election is his ability to connect with people.

So far, the split-screen differences between candidate Trump and President Biden have proved overwhelmingly to Trump’s advantage: Biden in New York schmoozing at a black-tie night with celebrities and ex-presidents to haul in $26 million in campaign cash from the hyper-rich, while Trump is with middle-class NYPD rank-and-file at a rainy wake for a murdered cop—killed by a repeat felon released without bail.

Or Trump buying fast food and milkshakes amid a mostly black Atlanta Chick-fil-A crowd, while Biden dines with the venomous Robert De Niro and the zillionaire Jeff Bezos at a White House dinner, with the celebrities’ trophy girls vying to get the most stares at their multi-thousand-dollar designer clothes—as if they were on the red carpet at the Oscars rather than in the people’s house.

What can Trump do to make the best use of all this?

He must magnanimously reach out to former rivals such as Haley, even as she continues to demonize him, and to DeSantis as well. He must unite the House Republicans to keep their razor-thin majority at all costs. He must campaign nonstop among poor whites, blacks, and Latinos, appealing to shared class concerns rather than the racial obsessions and psychodramas of the bicoastal elite.

He should skip the ad hominem invective, forget the past rivalries with his primary opponents, and assume a corrupt media does not deserve a minute of his time. If he does this, he can win.

But if he climbs down into the mud with his leftist opponents, trades insults, wrestles with his opponents, and obsesses about fake news and the crooked media, he will likely lose.

Aside from Trump’s temperament, we must always remember that the answers to two other fundamental questions will determine the outcome of the election:

1. Can the Republicans monitor the balloting and return it to the environment of 2016 rather than 2020?

2. Can Trump convince millions of minorities, independents, and former Biden voters that there are plenty of reasons to vote for someone they may not like—including the very future of the United States as a free republic as envisioned by the Founders, rather than an increasingly weak, anemic, cranky socialist has-been?

Finally, we must also remember that, ultimately, the outcome of the election could be determined by unpredictable events.

What happens if the Gaza War expands to Lebanon, Syria, and Iran, as Israel is attacked from all directions? Or the military of the United States is attacked in the Middle East, as in the past?

What will be the status of Ukraine by November—static, safer, or absorbed by Russia—and who will be praised or blamed for what ensues?

Will China risk attacking or blockading Taiwan on the theory that it will never be gifted a more ossified president than Biden?

Will the left unleash another late-season October surprise like the 2016 Access Hollywood tape or the 2020 “Russian disinformation” laptop farce? And will these desperate gambits resonate or boomerang?

And, lastly, will the candidates in October and November resemble the candidates of today? These are the two oldest candidates ever to run for president. Will Trump still be vibrant at 78? Will Biden still be upright at 81?

Will Biden’s feebleness still earn him sympathy, or at least respectful silence? Or will it devolve to the point that the public, worn out by his lapses, concludes that Joe Biden would not be able to keep any job in America—except the Presidency of the United States?

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/15/2024 - 16:20

Dollar, Oil, & Gold Jump; Stocks & Bonds Dump As 'WW3-On'-Risk Reignites

It was all looking so shiny and BTFD-y - Iran had sent some missiles towards Israeli folks; 'allies' blocked 99% of them; and Israel appeared unlikely top respond 'imminently'. Stocks were up, crypto was up, oil was down as 'WW3-off' meant risk-on.

But, then the headlines just kept coming from the MidEast, reigniting fears that things were about to escalate quickly once again, sending oil, gold, and the dollar roaring higher.

Add to that the fact that 2Y yields surged up towards 5.00% (after strong nominal retail sales) and 'risk-off' rapidly spoiled the overnight dip-buyers' fun.

Specifically, 5.00% has not been a fun place for S&P 500 multiples in the last couple of years...

Source: Bloomberg

...and it appears the same it true for now with the majors reversing solid early gains into serious weakness as the day unfolded. Nasdaq and Russell 2000 were the day's biggest losers, swinging from almost 1% gains to 1.5% losses by the close...

This was the biggest two-day drop for the S&P 500 since March 10th 2023 (SVB)...

Interestingly, 0-DTE traders were aggressively buying calls into this plunge in stocks (as it appeared they forgot that the buyback desks are currently in blackout and unavailable to rescue them)...

Source: SpotGamma

Banks remain very mixed with Goldman soaring today after earnings but JPM still holding big losses since its Friday earnings...

Source: Bloomberg

'Most Shorted' Stocks staged the ubiquitous squeeze attempt at the open but were sold pretty consistently from that point on -to close at their lowest in over two months...

Source: Bloomberg

It wasn't just the small-stocks that got hit. The basket of MAG7 stocks puked pretty hard, echoing the Thursday glitch from the week before last...

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were ugly, but before we go there, we note that stocks did end-up playing catch-down to their reality today...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were sold across the board today with the long-end hardest hit (30Y +11bps, 2Y +4bps)...

Source: Bloomberg

...which implicitly bear-steepened the yield curve (2s30s), erasing all of the CPI flattening...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar roared back up to its highest since Nov 13th - this is the biggest 4-day gain since early Feb 2023...

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto continued its roller-coaster ride, surging overnight (HK BTC ETFs?) back up to $67,000 (erasing the weekend's plunge on the Iran attack on Israel) and then falling in line with Nasdaq as the equity selloff accelerated.

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices roared back from earlier weakness with Brent back above $90 and WTI topping $85

Source: Bloomberg

Gold dropped early on after the retail sales print, but then ripped back as war-premium was added back...

Source: Bloomberg

Schwab Global Investment Stratgeist Jeff Kleintop noted gold's extraordinary 'war' gains in a post on X:

Gold has been soaring with a more than 14% gain so far this year. Prices hit an all-time high of $2,448.80 per ounce intraday on Friday as investors braced for a further escalation in the Middle East - a far larger gain than what usually accompanies a geopolitical event.

A few reasons beyond geopolitics:

• Investors remain wary of lingering inflation in the US and may be seeking gold as a hedge.

• The even stronger 20% move up in silver this year, the most AI chip exposed metal, may also be helping.

• India's economy continues to boom, boosting gold jewelry demand in the world's top gold consuming country.

Finally, don't forget it's Tax Day today...

Source: Goldman Sachs

Which seasonally is the low of the month...

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/15/2024 - 16:00

'Vol Genie' Is Out Of The Bottle, Geopolitical Tensions Or Not

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

Equity, fixed-income, credit, commodity and even FX volatility are beginning to rise in unison.

The proximate cause may have been rising geopolitical tensions, but the underlying conditions were there long before, and cross-asset volatility is likely to stay elevated.

Volatility across the board had been trending down since October.

But recently it has been rising, particularly over the last week as tensions in the Middle East worsened.

Underlying conditions have favored a rise in volatility for a while.

First, the VIX has been exceptionally low versus other assets’ volatility.

In recent weeks, call skew has been falling relative to put skew, which is typically consistent with a rise in the VIX. Furthermore, index correlation is about as low as it can go, and any rise would take equity volatility higher with it, especially as the volatility of individual stocks has been rising. There has also been a recent surge in option volume on the VIX, with the VVIX (vol of vol index) also rising sharply.

Second, the MOVE index of fixed-income volatility has been falling despite the latent risk of resurgent price growth.

There was an eerie calm in bond markets, not reflective of the inflationary backdrop, which was finally punctured after last week’s higher-than-expected CPI print. Moreover, higher rate volatility leads to higher equity volatility through the vector of index correlation.

Third, the volatility of many metals was very low until very recently.

Gold and copper looked like they were coiling for a bigger move, with both metals rising since March. Silver has been posting some wild moves, and becoming more cocoa-like in its recent behavior.

FX vol has been a perennial laggard in the vol stakes, but even it has shown some life in the last few days. Higher rates volatility should feed through into FX volatility.

The recent spurt higher in cross-asset volatility has been driven by geopolitical concerns, but even if they fade, the genie is out of the bottle, and volatility across assets is primed to stay elevated for the time being.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/15/2024 - 15:40

Baltimore Bridge Collapse: FBI Agents Board Container Ship In "Court-Authorized" Investigation 

Almost three weeks following the incident where a massive container ship collided with and caused the collapse of the 1.6-mile long Francis Scott Key Bridge, thus paralyzing the Port of Baltimore and severely disrupting supply chains throughout Baltimore and the Mid-Atlantic, FBI agents boarded the vessel on Monday morning. 

The Baltimore Sun reports FBI agents boarded the "Dali" container ship earlier today and were "conducting court-authorized law enforcement activity." 

A spokesperson for the FBI denied to comment on the ongoing investigation. However, Maryland US Attorney Erek Barron provided the local media outlet with this statement: 

"My office generally will not confirm the existence of or otherwise comment about investigations.

"However, the public should know, whether it's gun violence, civil rights abuse, financial fraud, or any other threat to public safety or property, we will seek accountability for anyone who may be responsible." 

In the days after the bridge collapse, FBI agents were at the scene. The National Transportation Safety Board is investigating why the container ship slammed into the bridge without safety barriers. 

Source: WSJ 

According to the local media outlet, the NTSB's investigation has been "homing in on the electronics system of the 984-foot ship, getting assistance from Hyundai to assist authorities with the ship's engine, which the South Korean firm manufactured." 

Many X users have questioned why, shortly after the incident, the federal government declared there was no evidence of terrorism with hardly an investigation underway. 

Since many crew members of vessels are foreigners, some of whom may come from countries not entirely fond of America, it might be time for the federal government to devise a way to vet every crew member before entering US waters. After all, the world is half on fire with impending major conflict breaking out in the Middle East and ongoing war in Ukraine. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/15/2024 - 15:20

Massive Financial Strain – New Report Exposes Horrifying Situation

 Authored by Peter Reagan for Birch Gold Group,

One idea has become abundantly clear over the last four years: You can’t add 41% to the money supply and expect inflation to remain “transitory.”

But that’s exactly what the Fed did over two years, after which President Biden picked up the ball in January 2021 and ran with it.

The result has come to be known in the online media as “Bidenomics,” and it hasn’t worked out very well for most Americans. In fact, according to a Redfin survey, people are making major financial sacrifices just to live at a basic level. Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao said:

Housing has become so financially burdensome in America that some families can no longer afford other essentials, including food and medical care, and have been forced to make major sacrifices, work overtime and ask others for money so they can cover their monthly costs.

Even worse, some Americans have resorted to skipping meals just to afford their overly-inflated mortgage payments:

Nearly one in five homeowners and renters reported skipping meals to afford housing in Biden’s economy, according to a new survey conducted by Redfin. The median asking rental price increased from less than $1,700 when Biden took office in January 2021 to nearly $2,000 as of February, according to Redfin’s data.

But it’s not just housing prices and mortgage payments that have apparently inflated out of control under the Biden administration.

Food prices have gone crazy since 2019

Grocery prices have become a heavy financial burden for many families, with prices overall rising over 40%. Some items cost 50-80% more today than four years ago:

Image via Leading Source

Note: The headline of the story above is misleading. “Food inflation” would mean that food gets bigger. “Food price inflation” is what they’re really talking about. I doubt this article is trying to trick anyone with a New York Times-style inflation con, but words are important! The food did not inflate; food prices went up because the money supply inflated.

Think about this the next time you hear a talking head cheer because “Inflation is only 3.5% now!”

(Which by the way, is still hotter than any annual inflation rate since 2011, and heading in the wrong direction again.)

But what those same talking heads fail to acknowledge are the real-world impacts of rising costs of living on the average family, only some of which are revealed above.

That’s probably the main reason why people call inflation “the tax no one votes for.”

On top of that, to make ends meet under enormous inflationary pressure for the last three years, Americans continue racking up credit card debt. In fact, since Biden took office, we’ve been swiping plastic at a dangerous pace:

Chart via E.J. Antoni on X

In response to what has become a persistently burdensome trend of inflation for most of the country, Biden’s administration has repeatedly focused on two data points:

1. A “low” unemployment rate (3.7%).

2. A “strong” trend of job growth.

But it doesn’t take a degree in economics to challenge them both…

Not all jobs are created equal

The White House and the corporate media are all over the strongest labor market in the last 60 years. So let’s take a peek under the hood…

Since August 2023, total part-time jobs grew 1.4 million. During the same period, full-time jobs fell by more than 1.3 million.

You can see this first point playing itself out on the bar graph below (gold bars are full-time jobs, and black bars are part-time jobs):

via Ryan McMaken at Mises Institute

Do you see a trend? It looks an awful lot like full-time jobs are being replaced by part-time jobs over the last 8-9 months.

No wonder people are skipping meals to make their mortgage payments!

Turns out that, historically speaking over the last 50 years, two (or more) consecutive months of declining full-time jobs means recession is either imminent or already underway.

Eight recessions, 100% accuracy…

See for yourself:

via Ryan McMaken at Mises Institute

The information on the graph above means that if history repeats itself like it has for the last 50 years, a recession is just around the corner. This is called the Sahm Rule, and it’s been a reliable recession indicator for the last five decades.

That also means if you’re feeling that “things aren’t quite right” with the current state of the economy, then you’re probably right to trust your gut.

How to recession-proof your savings

Inflation is one of the biggest threats to your standard of living – especially if you’ve invested in assets underperforming inflation (savings accounts, for example). Inflation-resistant assets are a good place to shelter your hard-earned savings. One of those assets is physical precious metals.

Gold and silver have historically provided protection against both the corrosive effects of inflation and economic crisis.

In fact, the price of gold has soared more than 25% since October of last year (as of April 10th, 2024). Take a look at the current interactive prices on most physical precious metals including gold right here.

*  *  *

With global instability increasing and election uncertainties on the horizon, protecting your retirement savings is more important than ever. And this is why you should consider diversifying into a physical gold IRA. Because they offer an easy and tax-deferred way to safeguard your savings using tangible assets. To learn more, click here to get your FREE info kit on Gold IRAs from Birch Gold Group.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/15/2024 - 13:20

Zelensky Condemns Iran, Uses Attack On Israel To Ask For More Money

Once again the specter of a major Middle East war has overshadowed the much bloodier and fiercer Russia-Ukraine war, and coming at a moment the Zelensky government is deeply struggling to attract more weapons and funding from Western capitals, most notably Washington.

President Zelensky has weighed in on the Saturday night large-scale Iranian attack on Israel, which was retaliation for the April 1st Israeli strikes that flattened the consulate in Damascus. What's more is he sought to connect what's happening in the Middle East right now to Ukraine.

Zelensky condemned Iran for the attack and said Ukrainians understand the "horror" of Iranian drones which have been deployed by Russia to attack Ukrainian cities.

AFP/Getty Images

"Ukraine condemns Iran’s attack on Israel using ‘Shahed’ drones and missiles. We in Ukraine know very well the horror of similar attacks by Russia, which uses the same ‘Shahed’ drones and Russian missiles, the same tactics of mass air strikes," Zelensky wrote on X Sunday.

"Every effort must be made to prevent a further escalation in the Middle East. Iran’s actions threaten the entire region and the world, just as Russia’s actions threaten a larger conflict, and the obvious collaboration between the two regimes in spreading terror must face a resolute and united response from the world," added.

He continued to seek to make a  direct connection between the two conflict theaters as follows: "The sound of ‘Shahed’ drones, a tool of terror, is the same in the skies over the Middle East and Europe. This sound must serve as a wake-up call to the free world, demonstrating that only our unity and resoluteness can save lives and prevent the spread of terror worldwide."

He quickly pivoted from this theme of the Iran and Russia dual threats to "the world" to asking the West for more weapons. The Ukrainian leader emphasized that "words do not stop drones and do not intercept missiles," but only action in form of more advanced weapons systems from allies.

"It is critical that the United States Congress make the necessary decisions to strengthen America’s allies at this critical time," he said.

Back in November, Zelensky actually publicly complained that the war between Israel and Hamas is "taking away the focus" from Russia's action in Ukraine.

Zelensky condemned Iran’s UNPROVOKED attaсk and said it threatens the entire region and the world, that‘s why the US Congress OWES him some cash pic.twitter.com/Itkb1zsSV0

— Russian Market (@runews) April 14, 2024

He made the remarks at the time while standing alongside EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen. "Of course, it's clear that the war in the Middle East, this conflict, is taking away the focus," Zelensky said in the surprisingly blunt admission. "Time has passed, people are tired... But this is not a stalemate," he had said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/15/2024 - 13:00

"Operation Praying Man Tis" Shows The US In Geopolitical Retreat

By Michael Every of Rabobank

If all you focus on is Brent oil, 10-year US Treasury yields, and the US dollar, relax: they are roughly where they were at the close on Friday before Iran unleashed over 300 suicide drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles at Israel: the geopolitical shock in markets today is aluminium up 6% after the London Metal Exchange banned Russian metals. However, if you think financial metrics tell you what’s going to happen in the Middle East, you don’t have a prayer.

On 14 April 1988, a US Navy vessel struck an Iranian mine in the Strait of Hormuz. The US then launched Operation Praying Mantis, and in eight hours, sank two Iranian oil platforms, three warships, several armed boats, and two fighter jets, a blow that helped end the long Iran-Iraq War. That US was the emerging global hyperpower, as the Soviet bloc and USSR slid towards collapse; “geopolitics” meant US muscle opening the way for global US-style capitalism.

The Iranian frigate Sahand burning from bow to stern on 18 April 1988 after being attacked

On 15 April 2024, Operation Praying Man tis, with the US far weaker militarily and unwilling to use full force against the combined challenge of Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea; “geopolitics” means a US retreat, as elite American youth rejects both capitalism and America.

What just happened between Iran and Israel was not the start of WW3. However, neither was it “geopolitical theatre" with fake violence, like a WWF match. It was deadly serious, has huge implications for markets, and is likely not over yet.

We saw the extent and limits of US/Western/Israeli power:

• Shooting down 99% of the drones/missiles fired at Israel was a remarkable military achievement that will prove a (pricey) template for others (as Ukraine suffers without such a shield). However, this was only a small fraction of the arsenal Iran and Iranian-proxy Hezbollah hold, and they will have now learned how to recalibrate to try to overwhelm Israel’s defences next time.
• As remarkable was a defence alliance of Jordan, the Saudis, the UK, France, and the US, helping shoot down Iranian attacks. However, this may not hold up to regional political pressures.
• The economic cost of the defence was staggering - $1.3bn for one night. The attackers paid far less. As with Ukrainian drones vs. the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the Houthis vs. the West’s Operation Prosperity Guardian, which is not guarding anyone’s prosperity, if military attack is now multiple times cheaper than defence, the inverse of the past, then we can expect a lot more global attacking to be done.
• A clear loss of US deterrence is evident given President Biden told Iran’s Khameneni "Don't!" – and he did anyway, as Putin did before him. Biden is also telling China’s Xi “Don’t!” on Taiwan and the Philippines. It’s not clear if Biden told Israel’s Netanyahu “Don’t!” on striking back against Iran, which the Israeli media says its war cabinet had decided to do on Saturday night but delayed after a phone call with the US. But the US clearly looks weak on many fronts.

Israel has apparently decided to counterattack – just not yet when, where, and how. However, Iran’s new redline is any strike on Iranians anywhere will see it hit Israel directly, and escalate; and a shocked post-10/7 Israel needs to show Iran that when it uses proxies to hurt it, Iranian territory will feel the pain too. Regardless of any talk about “de-escalation”, or the fact the US and Iran don’t want full-blown war, that escalation-ladder geopolitical dynamic should be clear.

Iran has said it will attack US forces in the Middle East (again) if the US helps Israel hit it. The US has said it will not join in any attack, as rumors swirl Qatar and the UAE forbade the US from using its military bases in their countries for strikes on Iran this weekend. However, this does not mean the US won’t help defend Israel (again), or that it will necessarily oppose an Israeli strike: it just wants to be informed in advance this time.

Israel faces a choice between responding to what Iran did (little damage), and what it tried to do (over 300 times the Israeli strike on Damascus). Both carry huge risks.

Israel can keep its new-found support and regional alliance, and the US happy, but it will lose crucial deterrence at a very dangerous time. It would also mean repeating what its public sees as the failed "high tech defences and hope" strategy employed in the past vs. Hamas.

Iran is meanwhile winning the regional long game of a slow-grind, proxy-based “War Between Wars”, and is moving closer to a nuclear weapon: Jerusalem may see this as its last window to act on that existential threat given the ADHD West --briefly-- views it with sympathy again. Traditionally cautious PM Netanyahu, slumping in the polls, has always been fixated on Iran, and heads a far-right coalition calling for a counterstrike; there may even be a presumption the US would be forced to step in if things escalate. Yet an Israeli attack risks opening Pandora's Box: it could fail; and there is no ‘one and done’ - what if Iran then got help from Russia and China? (As China is accused of playing a large role in Russian military rebuilding.)

One “de-escalatory” way out might be for Israel to accept strong G7 sanctions against Iranian energy and ballistic missile production. Yet while the G7 has unequivocally condemned in the strongest terms Iran’s attack on Israel, expressed full solidarity and support to Israel, reaffirmed its commitment towards its security, and “stands ready to take further measures now and in response to further destabilizing initiatives”, nothing concrete has been proposed. What would be required to hurt Iran would push energy prices higher, which none of the G7 will accept. After all, we already see the West won’t impose tough secondary sanctions on Central Asia or China because it won’t face the pain needed for a real economic war.

So, with or without sanctions on Iran, over time the geopolitical risks lean towards further upside for energy prices, as we flagged immediately after the 10/7 Hamas attack on Israel (along with saying that the Suez Canal might be closed).

Relatedly, lost in all this noise is last week’s Iranian hijacking of an Israel-linked container vessel in the Strait of Hormuz and the kidnapping of its Filipino/Indian crew: that suggests the need for a larger US Navy presence in Hormuz as well as the Red Sea. In which case, where are the vessels needed for the Indo-Pacific as tensions rise there?

This is the unstable global security architecture markets sit atop while making their torch-on-a-wall forecasts: one wrong move --as predictable moves keep being made-- and oil prices can surge, and all economic projections are wrong. So, Operation Praying Man tis:

• Netanyahu is praying he can find the ‘right’ level of inaction or retaliation vs. Iran.
• Khomenei is praying the US/G7 force Israel to back off so it can win its regional long game.
• Biden is praying he doesn’t see a fourth geopolitical debacle that hurts him in November.
• Chancellor Scholz, doing export BAU in China, is praying we live in 2004, as Siemens suggests it will be 2074 before German firms derisk their supply chains from China. Likewise, only 14% of Austrian respondents state they are willing to fight to help the EU if it is invaded, while 72% expect the EU to fight to defend them!

And markets are praying they can pretend deteriorating geopolitics matter far less than their little models or pretty charts. Like the one showing USD/JPY at 153.42, proof the global geoeconomic and financial architecture was already at risk of breaking down even before Iran attacked Israel directly

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/15/2024 - 12:40

'Hope' Hammered As Empire Fed Plunged In April - Below All Estimates

New York state factory activity contracted in April for a fifth straight month, printing at -14.3 (dramatically below the -5.2 print expected)...

Source: Bloomberg

...that was below all analysts' estimates...

Source: Bloomberg

...but even more problematically, prices paid (and received) surged to their highest in a year (and it appears that all those illegal immigrants in New York are not getting jobs in the manufacturing sector). Labor market conditions remained weak with employment and hours worked moving lower...

New orders and shipments both declined significantly, and unfilled orders continued to shrink. Delivery times shortened, and inventories edged higher.

Not a pretty picture...

“Manufacturing activity continued to contract in New York State in April, and employment continued to decline. Optimism about the outlook for future business conditions remained subdued.”

~Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed

All of which just confirms the current theme in macro data  - 'soft' survey data has collapsed relative to the 'inflated' 'hard' data...

Source: Bloomberg

...which means 'hope' - the spread between hard and soft data - is plummeting back toward cycle lows since Biden was elected.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/15/2024 - 12:20

Trump Trial Gets Started, Prosecutors Want 'Contempt' Ruling Over Gag: Live Updates

Update (1200ET): Monday's 'hush money' trial against former President Donald Trump has begun, with jury selection and a discussion over evidence on the table. To get the blow-by-blow throughout the day, follow this thread on X by Inner City Press.

The case stems from a $130,000 payment made by Trump's former lawyer, convicted felon and admitted liar Michael Cohen, to adult film actress Stormy Daniels at the end of the 2016 election in an alleged scheme to buy her silence. Trump is required to be present for the trial, which will take place four days a week and could last up to two months.

Judge Juan Merchan kicked off the day by refusing a request by Trump's legal team to recuse himself from the case over an interview he gave to the press in which he mentioned the case, which Merchan said was within the law - while Merchan's wife and daughter have worked for prominent Democrats and/or made anti-Trump statements.

EXCLUSIVE:

Ahead of President Trump’s “Hush money” trial which begins today in NYC, please review this chart created by @CcpSkipTracer and I that outlines the incestuous relationships of the New York State Supreme Court of New York County.

This puts it into perspective for all… https://t.co/soPrzWFRs8 pic.twitter.com/r9NlK1494E

— Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer) April 15, 2024

Prosecutors sought to include evidence from the Access Hollywood 'grab 'em by the pussy' tape, as well as various sexual assault allegations from Trump accusers. Merchan allowed a transcript of the tape, and denied a request to present the other allegations in court.

Prosecutor: We seek to elicit the fact the additional allegations against Mr. Trump emerged in the wake of the Access Hollywood tape. The candidate became obsessed with denying and denigrating his accusers. Here's what will be come Peoples' 409...

— Inner City Press (@innercitypress) April 15, 2024

Next, prosecutor Joshua Steinglass asked Trump's attorneys to explain how the former president shouldn't be held in contempt for allegedly violating Merchan's gag order - arguing that Trump's efforts have continued to this day, and that witnesses in the case "have incurred the wrath of Trump supporters."

And now, jury selection begins... with Merchan telling the court that 500 prospective jurors are waiting.

Stay tuned for updates...

*  *  *

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

I have long been critical of the case as a clear example of the weaponization of the criminal justice system. No one seriously believes that Alvin Bragg would have spent this time and money to prosecute what is ordinarily a state misdemeanor if the defendant was anyone other than Trump. One does not have to be like Trump to repel from the spectacle about to unfold in Manhattan.

The famous Roman philosopher and orator Marcus Tullius Cicero once said, “The more laws, the less justice.”

This week, New York judges and lawyers appear eager to prove that the same is true for cases against Donald Trump. 

After an absurd $450 million decision courtesy of Attorney General Letitia James, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg will bring his equally controversial criminal prosecution over hush money paid to a former porn star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election.

Lawyers have been scouring the civil and criminal codes for any basis to sue or prosecute Trump before the upcoming 2024 election. This week will highlight the damage done to New York’s legal system because of this unhinged crusade. They’ve charged him with everything short of ripping a label off a mattress.

Just a few weeks ago, another judge imposed a roughly half billion dollar penalty in a case without a single victim who lost a single cent on loans with Trump. (Indeed, bank officials testified they wanted more business with the Trump organization).

Now Bragg is bringing a case that has taken years to develop and millions of dollars in litigation cost for all parties. That is all over a crime from before the 2016 election that is a misdemeanor under state law that had already expired under the statute of limitations.

Like his predecessor, Bragg previously scoffed at the case. However, two prosecutors, Carey R. Dunne and Mark F. Pomerantz, then resigned and started a public pressure campaign to get New Yorkers to demand prosecution.

Pomerantz shocked many of us by publishing a book on the case against Trump —  who was still under investigation and not charged, let alone convicted, of any crime. He did so despite objections from his former colleague that such a book was grossly improper.

Nevertheless, it worked. Bragg brought a Rube Goldberg case that is so convoluted and counterintuitive that even liberal legal analysts criticized it.

Trump paid Daniels to avoid any publicity over their brief alleged affair. As a celebrity, there was ample reason to want to keep the affair quiet, and that does not even include the fact that he is a married man.

It also occurred before the 2016 election and there was clearly a benefit to quash the scandal as a candidate. That political motivation is at the heart of this long-delayed case.

It is a repeat of the case involving former Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards. In 2012, the Justice Department used the same theory to charge the former Democratic presidential candidate after a disclosure that he not only had an affair with filmmaker Rielle Hunter but also hid the fact that he had a child by her. Edwards denied the affair, and money from donors was passed to Hunter to keep the matter quiet.

The Justice Department spent a huge amount on the case to show that the third-party payments were a circumvention of campaign finance laws. However, Edwards was ultimately found not guilty on one count while the jury deadlocked on the other five.

With Trump, the Justice Department declined a repeat of the Edwards debacle and did not bring any federal charge.

But Bragg then used the alleged federal crime to bootstrap a defunct misdemeanor charge into a felony in the current case. He is arguing that Trump intentionally lied when his former lawyer Michael Cohen listed the payments as retainer costs rather than a payment — to avoid reporting it as a campaign contribution to himself.

Thus, if he had simply had Cohen report the payment as “hush money,” there would be no crime.

Once again, the contrast to other controversies is telling.

Before the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton’s campaign denied that it had funded the infamous Steele dossier behind the debunked Russian collusion claims.

The funding was hidden as legal expenses by then-Clinton campaign general counsel Marc Elias. (The FEC later sanctioned by the campaign over its hiding of the funding.). When a reporter tried to report the story, he said Elias “pushed back vigorously, saying ‘You (or your sources) are wrong.’” Times reporter Maggie Haberman declared, “Folks involved in funding this lied about it, and with sanctimony, for a year.”

Likewise, John Podesta, Clinton’s campaign chairman, was called before congressional investigators and denied categorically any contractual agreement with Fusion GPS. Sitting beside him was Elias, who reportedly said nothing to correct the misleading information given to Congress.

Yet, there were no charges stemming from the hiding of the funding, though it was all part of the campaign budget.

Making this assorted business even more repellent will be the appearance of Cohen himself on the stand. Cohen recently was denounced by a judge as a serial perjurer who is continuing to game the system.

Cohen has a long record as a legal thug who has repeatedly lied when it served his interests. He has a knack for selling his curious skill set to powerful figures like Trump and now Bragg.

For those of us who have been critics of Cohen from when he was still working for Trump, it is mystifying that anyone would call him to the stand to attest to anything short of the time of day . . . and even then most of us would check our watches.

Fortunately witnesses are no longer required to put their hand on the bible in swearing to testify truthfully in court. Otherwise, the court would need the New York Fire Department standing by in case the book burst into flames.

So this is the case: A serial perjurer used to convert a dead state misdemeanor into a felony based on an alleged federal election crime that was rejected by the Justice Department.

They could well succeed in a city where nine out of ten potential jurors despise Trump. Trying Trump in Manhattan is about as difficult as the New York Yankees going to bat using beach balls rather than baseballs. It is hard to miss.

However, this is a Pyrrhic victory for the New York legal system. Whatever the outcome, it may prove a greater indictment of the New York court system than the defendant.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/15/2024 - 12:11

"The Lies Are Just Unreal" - Ed Dowd Rages As 'Govts & Media Continue Pretending Massive Health Crisis Not Going On'

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Former Wall Street money manager Ed Dowd is still a skillful number cruncher.  His recently updated and wildly popular book “Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021, 2022 and 2023” has been correctly documenting the huge numbers of deaths and injuries caused by the CV19 bioweapon vax. 

Many are waking up to this crime against humanity, but many remain in the dark because the government and Lying Legacy Media (LLM) continue to cover up the worst murder and disability fraud in world history.  Dowd says:

“At this point, it’s overwhelming and has become almost comical...

This is asymmetric information.  So, we have governments and media continuing to pretend a massive health crisis with chronic illness, deaths and disabilities is not going on.  The data would suggest otherwise...

The data we have made public is free, but some people want projections and decision-making ideas. These are things we might end up starting a business from.  I would have never thought we could.  This is what asymmetric information does, and the government and the media are suppressing this information.”

A quick look at the overall casualties from the CV19 vax reveal an unparalleled medical disaster.  Dowd explains:

“I went before Senator Ron Johnson in February to talk about the ‘pandemic scorecard,’ which is abysmal. 

Ever since the CV19 vaccine came on, we have had 1.1 million Americans die excessively, 4 million permanently disabled and another 28 million injured.  It’s 33 million people who have been negatively affected now. 

The question you have to ask is why are these institutions not screaming from the rooftops?  I think the reason why is, it’s all because of the (deadly) vaccine.  It’s all circular, and I think it’s a joke at this point.”

Is the worst over? 

The short answer from Dowd is No. 

Dowd contends, “Let’s just look at the disability data..."

" We surged to a new high in June of 2023.  We have not gone to a new high since.  It kind of backfilled a little bit, but the last two months we have seen back-to-back increases.  This is a called a plateauing effect. 

If it was all clear, I would like to see that number come down.  Unfortunately, it’s not.  

It can start to go back down, or it can have another consolidation and another spurt upward. 

The bad news is it is plateauing at a new high level. 

The good news is it has not gone up to a new level, but if it does, we have problems.”

One big problem Dowd has spotted is an explosion of cancers and, yes, you cannot get the truth about this either.  Dowd says:

“The fact that people will not even say that cancers are on the rise is pretty comical to me.  Doctors were reporting it anecdotally, and now we have the data to prove it.  This is where we are...

In 2022, I said that ‘60,000 millennials died excessively between March of 2021 and February of 2022.  That was a Vietnam War.’  That tweet went viral, and Reuters and AP fact checked me and said no, our experts say that’s not true. 

Now, even the establishment is saying there is excessive all-cause mortality.  So, we are now in a stage where cancers are not rising.  They are now denying that.  The lies are just unreal.”

There is much more in the 36-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with money manager and investment expert Ed Dowd, author of the recently updated book called “Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021, 2022 and 2023”...

You can order Dowd’s newly updated book called “Cause Unknown” by clicking here. If you want to go to Dowd’s website called PhinanceTechnologies.com, click here. Dowd’s work on compiling data on deaths and disabilities caused by the CV19 bioweapon/vax is all free at his website.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/15/2024 - 12:10

It's Not Just The Middle East: Here Are The Main Events This Busy Week

While back on Friday the market's attention was mostly on the start of earnings season, this weekend's events have quickly shift focus and looking forward, the important question now is how Israel might respond to the (scripted) war between Iran and Israel, and whether it could lead to a further escalation in the conflict (it won't, but just like Iran, Israel will likely fire off a couple of cruise missiles into the desert so as not to appear toothless and call it a day).

A meeting of Israel’s war cabinet ended on Sunday evening without a decision on how Israel would respond, and according to NBC, the war Cabinet will reconvene today. And Reuters reported that the war cabinet favored retaliation, but was divided over the response according to Israeli officials. That followed comments earlier in the day from Benny Gantz, a minister in the war cabinet, who said that Israel will “exact a price from Iran in a way and time that suits us”. And Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister, called for a “crushing attack”. But in the US, reports have indicated that there is more caution about an escalation, and Axios reported that Biden had told Israeli PM Netanyahu that the US wouldn’t support an Israeli counterattack, according to a senior White House official.

Given all this, developments in the Middle East will be the main focus this week, and we know from recent experience that geopolitical tensions can impact the global economy through several channels. Most directly, the effects of higher oil prices will be felt globally, and this is coming at a time when there’s already concern about sticky inflation in several countries. That’s something that could create a dilemma for central banks, as we also found out after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. On the one hand, there is the risk that a geopolitical shock hurts growth, bringing forward the timing of rate cuts. Indeed, markets were clearly pricing that risk on Friday, with the chance of a Fed rate cut by June moving up from 24% to 30%, although that’s since moved back to 24% this morning. But then again, if higher oil prices lead to more inflation and there are second round effects on other prices, then that could mean monetary policy has to stay in restrictive territory for longer. So the potential effects can work both ways.

Turning away from geopolitics, we’ll get the chance to hear from several policymakers this week, as numerous officials are gathering in Washington DC for the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings. Tomorrow, we’ll get the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, including their forecasts for the global economy. And over the week, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, and Bank of England Governor Bailey, among others. This week is also the last opportunity to hear from Fed speakers ahead of the next meeting, as their blackout period begins on Saturday.

Otherwise this week, earnings season will begin to ramp up before it really gets into full flow over the subsequent week. That includes releases from 41 companies in the S&P 500, along with 21 from the STOXX 600, with results from Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Netflix and Johnson & Johnson.

Finally on this week’s data, we’ve got the Q1 GDP release for China out tomorrow, along with their March data for retail sales and industrial production. Meanwhile, there are CPI releases for March in the UK, Japan and Canada, which will also be in focus as markets assess the timing of any monetary policy moves. Then in the US, we’ve also got some more data for March, including retail sales, housing starts, building permits, and industrial production.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday April 15

• Data : US March retail sales, February business inventories, April NAHB housing market index, Empire manufacturing index, Japan February core machine orders, Italy February general government debt, Eurozone February industrial production, Canada March housing starts, February manufacturing sales
• Central banks : Fed's Logan speaks, ECB's Simkus and Lane speak, BoE's Breeden speaks, China 1-yr MLF rate
• Earnings : Goldman Sachs

Tuesday April 16

• Data : US March industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts, building permits, April New York Fed services business activity, UK March jobless claims change, February average weekly earnings, ILO unemployment rate, China Q1 GDP, March home prices, retail sales, industrial production, property investment, Italy February trade balance, Germany and Eurozone April Zew survey, Eurozone February trade balance, Canada March CPI, New Zealand Q1 CPI
• Central banks : Fed Chair Powell, Fed's Daly and Jefferson speak, ECB's Rehn, Villeroy and Vujcic speak, BoE's Bailey and Lombardelli speak
• Earnings : Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, UnitedHealth, Morgan Stanley, United Airlines
• Other : IMF releases World Economic Outlook

Wednesday April 17

• Data : US February total net TIC flows, UK March CPI, PPI, RPI, February house price index, Japan March trade balance, Canada February international securities transactions
• Central banks : Fed's Beige Book, Mester and Bowman speak, ECB President Lagarde, ECB's Cipollone, De Cos and Schnabel speak, BoE's Bailey, Greene and Haskel speak
• Earnings : ASML, Volvo, Prologis, Abbott Laboratories, Alcoa, Crown Castle
• Auctions : US 20-yr Bond (reopening, $13bn)

Thursday April 18

• Data : US March leading index, existing home sales, April Philadelphia Fed business outlook, initial jobless claims, Japan February Tertiary industry index, Italy February current account balance, EU27 March new car registrations, ECB February current account, Eurozone February construction output
• Central banks : Fed's Bowman, Williams and Bostic speak, BoJ's Naguchi speaks , ECB's Centeno, Simkus and Vujcic speak
• Earnings : TSMC, Netflix, Blackstone
• Auctions : US 5-yr TIPS ($23bn)

Friday April 19

• Data : UK March retail sales, Japan March national CPI, Germany March PPI
• Central banks : Fed's Goolsbee speaks, ECB's Nagel speaks, BoE's Ramsden speaks
• Earnings: Procter & Gamble, American Express, Schlumberger
• Other: India's general elections begin

* * *

Finally, here is a weekly preview focusing only on the US from Goldman, which notes that the key economic data releases this week are the retail sales report on Monday and the Philly Fed manufacturing index on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including public appearances by Chair Powell and by Vice Chair Jefferson on Tuesday and by New York Fed President Williams on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday.

Monday, April 15

• 02:30 AM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will participate in a panel discussion at a conference on gender diversity in the workplace hosted by the IMF and the Bank of Japan in Tokyo. Moderated Q&A is expected. On April 5th, President Logan noted that she believed it was “much too soon to think about cutting interest rates,” and that FOMC participants “should remain prepared to respond appropriately if inflation stops falling.” President Logan emphasized that the FOMC had “time to wait and see the incoming data and see how financial conditions are evolving,” and that “there is no urgency right now” to cut the fed funds rate.
• 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing survey, April (consensus -5.0, last -20.9); 08:30 AM Retail sales, March (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.6%); Retail sales ex-auto, March (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.3%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, March (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Core retail sales, March (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.4%, last flat): We estimate core retail sales rose 0.6% in March (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; mom sa). Our forecast reflects a boost from Easter spending but mixed credit card spending data for the month as a whole. We estimate a 0.5% rise in headline retail sales, reflecting lower auto sales and flat-to-down gasoline spending.
• 08:30 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will take part in an interview on Bloomberg Television. On April 11th—after the March CPI report was released—President Williams said that he expected “inflation to continue its gradual return to 2%, although there will likely be bumps along the way, as we’ve seen in some recent inflation readings,” and that he expected “overall PCE inflation to be 2.25% to 2.5% this year, before moving closer to 2% next year.” President Williams also noted that “if the economy proceeds as expected, it will make sense to dial back the policy restraint gradually over time, starting this year.”
• 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, April (consensus 51, last 51)
• 10:00 AM Business inventories, February (consensus +0.4%, last flat)
• 08:00 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will participate in a fireside chat at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Q&A is expected. On April 12th, President Daly emphasized that “there is … no urgency to adjust the policy rate,” and that she would “need to be fully confident that inflation is on track to come down to 2% … before we would consider a rate cut.” President Daly also noted that there was “a lot of work to do before we can be confident that we have price stability.”

Tuesday, April 16

• 08:30 AM Housing starts, March (GS -1.1%, consensus -2.6%, last +10.7%): Building permits, March (consensus -0.9%, last +2.4%)
• 09:00 AM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will deliver a keynote address at the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy, hosted by the Fed Board. On February 22nd, Vice Chair Jefferson noted that the FOMC always needed to “keep in mind the danger of easing too much.” At the same time, Vice Chair Jefferson said that “the labor market can change dramatically,” and that the FOMC had to “be careful and we have to try to assess the different shocks that can hit the economy and adjust policy accordingly.”
• 09:15 AM Industrial production, March (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.1%): Manufacturing production, March (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.8%)
• Capacity utilization, March (GS 78.3%, consensus 78.5%, last 78.3%): We estimate industrial production rose 0.1%, as weak mining production offsets strong natural gas production and underlying strength in manufacturing activity. We estimate capacity utilization was unchanged at 78.3%.
• 12:30 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will moderate a discussion with François Villeroy de Galhau at the Economic Club of New York.
• 01:00 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will speak on the economic outlook at the Rotary Club of Winston-Salem. Q&A is expected. On April 11th, President Barkin stressed that “we’re not yet where we want to be” on inflation, but that “the longer arc suggests we are headed in the right direction.” He noted that “we are still in this environment of not high inflation, but higher than target inflation.”
• 01:15 PM Fed Chair Powell speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a moderated discussion with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, at the Washington Forum on the Canadian Economy in Washington, D.C. Q&A is expected. On April 9th, before the March CPI report was released, Chair Powell noted that the recent inflation data did not “materially change” the outlook for monetary policy, and that he expected it would likely be appropriate to start lowering rates “at some point this year.” Still, Chair Powell noted that it was “too soon to say whether the recent [inflation] readings represent more than just a bump.”

Wednesday, April 17

• 02:00 PM Beige Book, April/May FOMC meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the March FOMC meeting period noted that activity accelerated somewhat in early 2024 and that firms’ economic outlook for the remainder of the year was generally positive. Businesses reported that consumers had become more sensitive to price increases in early 2024. At the same time, regional labor markets continued to soften and companies were finding it easier to hire and retain workers. In this month’s Beige Book, we look for anecdotes related to possible turning points in regional labor markets and for further commentary on businesses’ inflation expectations over the next few months.
• 05:30 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will take part in a discussion on the Fed and monetary policy in Ohio. Q&A is expected. On April 4th, President Mester said she wanted to “see a couple more months of data” to judge whether inflation had continued to decline toward the Fed’s 2% target. President Mester also noted that if the labor market “were to deteriorate significantly, we have a policy position that we can address that and we can move rates down more swiftly and sooner than in our baseline forecast.”
• 07:15 PM Fed Governor Bowman speaks: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will participate in a fireside chat at the Institute of International Finance’s Global Outlook Forum dinner in Washington, D.C. Q&A is expected. On April 5th, Governor Bowman noted that “inflation readings over the past two months suggest progress may be uneven or slower going forward,” and that she expected “further progress in bringing inflation down to 2% will be slower this year.” She emphasized that, while not her “baseline outlook,” she continued to “see the risk that at a future meeting we may need to increase the policy rate further should progress on inflation stall or even reverse.”

Thursday, April 18

• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, April (GS 5.2, consensus 2.3, last 3.2): We estimate that the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose 2pt to 5.2 in April, reflecting a boost from the foreign manufacturing rebound and strength in US production and freight activity.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 13 (GS 215k, consensus 215k, last 211k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 6 (consensus 1,818k, last 1,817k)
• 09:05 AM Fed Governor Bowman speaks: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will deliver pre-recorded opening remarks at the 2024 Regional and Community Banking Conference, hosted by the New York Fed. Text is expected.
• 09:15 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will take part in a moderated discussion at the Semafor World Economy Summit in Washington, D.C. Q&A is expected.
• 09:15 AM Fed Governor Bowman speaks: Fed Governor Bowman will participate in a fireside chat at the SIFMA Basel III Endgame Roundtable. Q&A is expected.
• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, March (GS +0.7%, consensus -4.5%, last +9.5%)
• 11:00 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will participate in a moderated fireside chat on the economic outlook in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Q&A is expected. On April 12th, President Bostic noted that his outlook for 2024 was “one cut toward the end of the year.” He said he expected inflation would “continue to fall, but much slower than I think many would like.”
• 05:45 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will take part in a moderated fireside chat on the economic outlook in Coral Gables, Florida. Q&A is expected.

Friday, April 19

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
• 10:30 AM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated Q&A at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing’s 2024 annual conference in Chicago. On April 12th, President Goolsbee noted that there had been multiple CPI inflation readings “that were higher than we wanted,” but that PCE was “the better measure.” He noted that “if PCE is reinflating—we will stabilize prices.” President Goolsbee said that “the most important number to be watching on the inflation front here in the immediate term is what is happening with housing,” noting that “if that doesn't go down to something like it was pre-COVID we will have a hard time getting the overall back to target."

Source: DB, Goldman, BofA

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/15/2024 - 12:00

After Illegal Veto, Kentucky Becomes 45th State To End Sales Taxes On Gold & Silver

Via Money Metals,

In a high-stakes showdown with Gov. Andy Beshear over a gold and silver sales tax exemption, the Kentucky legislature today deemed his attempted line-item veto as an illegal act -- and directed the Secretary of State to enroll the exemption into law.

This action makes the Bluegrass State the 45th state in the nation to enact this sound money policy – and the second this year.

Originally introduced by Rep. Steven Doan as a standalone bill, the sales tax exemption on purchases of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium coins, bars, and rounds enjoyed strong grassroots support -- thanks, in large part, to the hard work of the Sound Money Defense League, Money Metals Exchange, and in-state activists.

Ultimately, Kentucky House and Senate leaders added the popular sound money provision into House Bill 8, an overarching revenue bill that also involved other tax matters, and sent the bill to the governor.

However, Beshear, a progressive Democrat, attempted to line-item veto the sales tax exemption on Tuesday. In his veto message, he even went out of his way to smear small-time Kentucky savers (who are desperately trying to protect themselves from Bidenflation) as rich people.

Under the Kentucky constitution, however, governors only have a line item veto power with respect to appropriations (or spending) bills -- and HB 8 was not such a bill.

Moreover, a formal opinion of the state's Attorney General further affirms that a line-item veto power does not exist for revenue bills, giving further weight to the legislature's action to deem Beshear's veto attempt illegal.

Once it takes effect on August 1, the sales tax exemption covers bullion as well as “coins or currency made of gold, silver, platinum, palladium, or other metal or paper money that is, or has been, used as legal tender and is sold based on its value as a collectible item rather than its value as a medium of exchange.”

Bill sponsor Rep. Doan explained, “Sound money is the bedrock of economic stability, ensuring the preservation of wealth and purchasing power over time. For Kentuckians and businesses in the state, sound money fosters confidence in transactions, encourages savings, and facilitates long-term investment, ultimately driving sustainable economic growth.

"As enshrined in the Constitution, sound money protects against the corrosive effects of inflation, safeguarding the financial well-being of individuals, families, and enterprises alike,” he continued.

“Kentucky lawmakers finally listened to the overwhelming grassroots pressure and common sense and got this done,” said Jp Cortez, executive director of the Sound Money Defense League. “Sound money is a winning political issue, the voters want it, and our nation desperately needs it.”

Including Kentucky, eight states in the last three years have enacted laws to reduce or eliminate the sales tax on purchases of precious metals (Wisconsin and Kentucky in 2024, Mississippi in 2023, Tennessee, Alabama, and Virginia in 2022, and Arkansas and Ohio in 2021).

Kentucky had been completely surrounded by states that had already ended this controversial tax.

Ending the sales tax on purchases of gold and silver is good policy for several reasons:

• Other types of savings or investments do not carry a sales tax. Gold and silver are held as forms of savings and investment. Kentucky already does not assess a sales tax on the purchase of stocks, bonds, ETFs, real estate, currencies, and other financial instruments.
• Levying sales taxes on precious metals makes no sense because they are held for resale. Sales taxes are typically levied on final consumer goods. Computers, shirts, and shoes carry sales taxes because the consumer is "consuming" the goods. Precious metals are inherently held for resale, not "consumption," making the imposition of sales taxes on precious metals illogical from the start.
• Studies have shown that taxing precious metals is an inefficient form of revenue collection. The results of a Michigan study, for example, demonstrated that any sales tax proceeds a state collects on precious metals may be surpassed by the state revenue lost from conventions, businesses, and economic activity that are driven out of the state.
• Taxing gold and silver harms in-state businesses. It’s a competitive marketplace, so buyers will take their business to neighboring states, thereby undermining jobs. By going elsewhere, investors can easily avoid paying $132 in sales taxes, for example, on a $2,200 purchase of a one-ounce gold bar.
• Gold and silver are the only money mentioned in the U.S. Constitution. Article 1, Section 10 states that “no state shall make any Thing but Gold and Silver a tender in payment of debts.” Exchanging one form of U.S. money for another should not be a taxable event.
• Taxing precious metals is harmful to small-time savers. Purchasers of precious metals aren't generally fat-cat investors. Most who buy precious metals do so in small increments as a way of saving money. Inflation harms everyone, but especially pensioners, wage earners, savers, and small business folks.

“We’re nowhere near done. Politicians in the remaining ‘hold-out states’ – New Jersey, Maine, Vermont, Hawaii, and New Mexico – should expect to hear from sound money activists and constituents very soon,” added Stefan Gleason, CEO of Money Metals and Chairman of the Sound Money Defense League.

It’s still possible that New Jersey could become the third state to end sales taxes on precious metals this year. Such a bill has already passed through the New Jersey Senate.

More than two dozen other states have considered pro-sound money legislation in 2024 so far, including Alaska, Indiana, Iowa, Georgia, Kansas, Missouri, Idaho, Arizona, Utah, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Kansas, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

Kentucky was tied for 45th out of 50 in the 2024 Sound Money Index. Enactment of this measure is expected to boost the state’s ranking dramatically.

As of this writing, it's unclear whether Governor Beshear will file suit against the legislature for refusing to accept his line-item veto as valid.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/15/2024 - 11:25

Pro-Palestinian Protesters Spark Chaos At O'Hare International Airport

Pro-Palestinian protesters are blocking Terminal 1 at Chicago O'Hare International Airport on Monday morning, causing chaos for travelers trying to catch flights. 

Local media outlet ABC7 reports that "all lanes were blocked on I-190 west between Bessie Coleman Drive and the airport." 

A demonstration in solidarity with Palestine has resulted in traffic being blocked off leading to O'Hare. Some individuals are sitting in their cars, while others are walking towards the airport.#ohare #chicago pic.twitter.com/pxy9ZPcU6d

— CHICAGO CRITTER (@ChicagoCritter) April 15, 2024

Elections have consequences. Remember that when carrying your luggage to O’Hare airport. #Chicago #Hamas #LockThemUp
Video: @Julio_Rosas11 pic.twitter.com/LtHPj12ekN

— Jen (@IlliniJen) April 15, 2024

People are leaving their cars in an attempt to still catch their flights in Chicago as Hamas Supporters block the road to the airport entirely#Chicago #ChicagoTraffic pic.twitter.com/CfuUKgbD15

— MAGA Montgomery (@MAGA_Montgomery) April 15, 2024

CBS News says "Organizers were seeking to disrupt Boeing's operations, because the company sells weapons to Israel, and to demand an end to the US government's arming of Israel." 

Earlier this month, a pro-Palestinian group attacked at least one Western defense company in the UK that makes critical components for F-35 stealth fighter jets.

It's Monday morning. Don't these protesters have jobs? Unless they are paid by shadowy groups or NGOs to create chaos. 

*Developing... 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/15/2024 - 11:05

Goldman Soars On "Near-Perfect" Top To Bottom Beat As Solomon Sees Rebound In Dealmaking

With JPMorgan tumbling on Friday on a net interest income miss and disappointing guidance, suffering its worst earnings-day slump in decades, financials needed a solid report this morning and got it from the bank that once was the envy of all its Wall Street peers before a series of catastrophic decisions saw it lose most of its vaunted trading floor amid a disastrous foray into consumer subprime lending. Yes, the Goldman Sachs formerly known as the Vampire Squid, is soaring this morning after reporting stellar Q1 results that beat across the board and saw profit surge 28% in Q1 - even as analysts expected a decline from a year ago - driven by strong performance in its marquee trading business as well as a resurgence in underwriting and dealmaking. 

Here's what Goldman reported for the first quarter:

• Net revenue $14.21 billion, +16% y/y, beating est. $12.98 billion
  • FICC sales & trading revenue $4.32 billion, +10% y/y, beating estimates of $3.64 billion
  • Global Banking & Markets net revenues $9.73 billion, +15% y/y, beating estimates of $8.46 billion
  • Investment banking revenue $2.09 billion, beating estimates of $1.82 billion
  • Equities sales & trading revenue $3.31 billion, +9.8% y/y, beating estimates of $2.96 billion
  • Advisory revenue $1.01 billion, +24% y/y, beating estimates of $874.4 million
  • Equity underwriting rev. $370 million, +45% y/y, beating estimates of $331.4 million
  • Debt underwriting rev. $699 million, +38% y/y, beating estimates of $611.1 million

Looking below the line we find more of the same:

• Net Income $4.1BN, up 28% from $3.2BN a year earlier and beating estimates by almost $1BN
• EPS $11.58, beating est of 8.56, and up 32 vs. $8.79

And visually:

Some more details:

• Net interest income $1.61 billion, -9.7% y/y, beating estimates of $1.47 billion
• Platform Solutions pretax loss $117 million, estimate loss $260.5 million
• Total deposits $441 billion, +3% q/q
• Loans $184 billion, +3.4% y/y, estimate $185.39 billion
• Provision for credit losses $318 million vs. recovery $171 million y/y, below the estimate $503.4 million
• Total operating expenses $8.66 billion, +3% y/y, higher than the estimate $8.47 billion
• Compensation expenses $4.59 billion, +12% y/y, higher than the estimate $4.29 billion
• Assets under management $2.85 trillion, +6.6% y/y, estimate $2.92 trillion
• Total AUS net outflows $15 billion vs. inflows $57 billion y/y, estimate inflows $34.13 billion

Turning to the bank's trading group, results here were stellar:

• Global Banking & Markets net revenues $9.73 billion, +15% y/y, estimate $8.46 billion
• FICC sales & trading revenue $4.32 billion, +10% y/y, estimate $3.64 billion, and "reflected significantly higher net revenues in financing and higher net revenues in intermediation"
• Equities sales & trading revenue $3.31 billion, +9.8% y/y, estimate $2.96 billion "reflected higher net revenues in intermediation and slightly higher net revenues in financing"

Some more details here:

• FICC intermediation reflected significantly higher net revenues in mortgages and higher net revenues in currencies and credit products, partially offset by lower net revenues in commodities and slightly lower net revenues in interest rate products
• FICC financing was a record and primarily reflected significantly higher net revenues from mortgages and structured lending 
• Equities intermediation reflected significantly higher net revenues in derivatives.
• Equities financing net revenues were slightly higher; record average prime balances.

The bank's investment bank also did a great job, with Global Banking & Markets net revenues $9.73 billion, +15% y/y, and smashing estimates of $8.46 billion. Investment banking revenue of $2.09 billion, also beat estimates of $1.82 billion

• Advisory revenue $1.01 billion, +24% y/y, estimate $874.4 million, and reflected an increase in completed mergers and acquisitions transactions
• Equity underwriting rev. $370 million, +45% y/y, estimate $331.4 million, and  reflected an increase in initial public and secondary offerings
• Debt underwriting rev. $699 million, +38% y/y, estimate $611.1 million, and reflected a significant increase in leveraged finance activity

Trading has been a bright spot for the bank in recent years. Market swings during the coronavirus pandemic, the effect of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in shaking up commodities markets and the trading of macro products stimulated by central bank interest rate rises have all helped to buoy the business.

Analysts had expected revenues in Goldman’s equity and fixed-income businesses to fall in the first quarter. Instead, both reported 10% increases compared with a year earlier. And while fees from FICC trading fell, it beat estimates with Goldman saying it benefited from higher revenues in mortgages, currencies and credit trading in the quarter.

Investment banking, meanwhile, had its best quarter in two years, with revenues of $2.1bn. This was up 32% from a year earlier, although still well below the peak achieved during the pandemic-era boom in dealmaking. Expect more gains here: the M&A market has finally started to pick up after a slowdown that has proved far more enduring than many on Wall Street anticipated. The number of takeovers worth at least $10bn more than doubled in the first three months of 2024.

Strong public market debuts from social media company Reddit and artificial intelligence infrastructure group Astera Labs have also raised hopes for a revival in the global initial public offering markets after two years of subdued activity.

Goldman’s asset and wealth management division, the cornerstone of Solomon’s efforts to diversify the Wall Street bank away from volatile investment banking and trading, posted revenue of $3.79 billion, up 18% from a year earlier. Management fees climbed 7% as the bank is seeking to shift growth to those fees instead of windfalls from balance-sheet investments. The bank also noted a pre-tax margin of 23% in that business.

Of note here is that while Goldman made a profit in Q 1private equity, it continued to lose money in public equities, to wit:

• Private: 1Q24 ~$330 million, compared to 1Q23 ~$35 million
• Public: 1Q24 ~$(110) million, compared to 1Q23 ~$85 million

Debt investments, meanwhile, reflected lower net interest income due to a reduction in the debt investments balance sheet.

Summarizing the wealth management data for 1Q24:

• Total assets of $190 billion
• Loan balance of $45 billion, of which $33 billion related to Private banking and lending
• Net interest income of $691 million
• Total Wealth management client assets of ~$1.5 trillion
• Pre-tax margin of 23%

The bank's solid Q1 performance helped draw a line under a challenging 12 months for Goldman in which its results were hit by losses tied to its pullback from consumer lending. CEO David Solomon, who last year faced criticism for his management of the bank, said the first-quarter results reflected “the earnings power of Goldman Sachs”.

Commenting on the quarter, Solomon said the company is in the early stages of reopening of capital markets, and that IPOs showed investment risk appetite growing. Some more comments:

• Expects solid demand for underwriting to continue this year.
• Continue to be constructive on the health of the US economy.
• That said, he continues to see headwinds, including concerns about inflation, the commercial real estate market and escalating geopolitical tensions.
• Unlike Jamie Dimon, Solomon was less pessimistic but noted that markets expect a soft landing but the trajectory is still uncertain.
• Very focused at the moment on organic execution of wealth management strategy; could be a time in future where something interesting might come up.

Solomon has refocused Goldman’s strategy on its core investment banking and trading businesses and invested in asset and wealth management to generate more stable revenues.

The reversal from the bank's disappointing 2023 was most apparent in one key metric: the bank reported return-on-equity of 14.8% for the first three months, in line with its longer-term targets and nearly double the dismal 7.5% it posted for 2023. The results also included a $78 million charge for an additional Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. special assessment stemming from last year’s regional-bank failures.

The figures were “a near-perfect print”, Oppenheimer analyst Chris Kotowski wrote in a note to clients. Goldman’s stock rose about 5 per cent in early trading.

Goldman shares, which were roughly flat for the year heading into earnings, climbed about 2% to $397.00 at 7:25 a.m. in New York

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/15/2024 - 10:55