Only The 38th Largest Oil Spike Since 1990

Today’s CoTD from DB's Jim Reid shows the daily price of oil back to 1990. When he published the report, oil (+8.4%) was tracking to be the 38th biggest daily gain over this 36-year period. The graph annotates the clusters where we have seen larger moves.

So even though it’s a big move, to get into the top 20, 10 and 5 it would need to be up +9.6%, +13.6% and +13.9% respectively.

There were huge moves around the GFC and Covid-19 turmoil, whilst the Gulf War in 1990-91 also saw several double-digit gains.

Incidentally, since Jim published his chart of the day, oil has sold off more, and at last check it was up just 5.7% on the day, erasing its kneejerk spike by more than half.

Going forward, Reid says that much will depend on the Strait of Hormuz.

It seems it’s not officially closed but passage through it would be hazardous at the moment with self-imposed restrictions from virtually all that normally travel through it.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 14:20

AI 'Vibe Coding' Could Put Ethereum Roadmap Ahead Of Schedule: Vitalik Buterin

Authored by Martin Young via CoinTelegraph.com,

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin says an experiment that used artificial intelligence to prototype the blockchain’s roadmap out to 2030 in just a few weeks could have lessons for developers. 

“This is quite an impressive experiment. Vibe-coding the entire 2030 roadmap within weeks,” Buterin posted to X on Saturday after a developer made a bet with Buterin in February that one person could use AI to code a reference implementation of the blockchain’s roadmap.

Buterin added that AI is “massively accelerating coding” and that people “should be open to the possibility that the Ethereum roadmap will finish much faster than people expect, at a much higher standard of security than people expect.”

Vibe coding is where AI creates the code for an application, allowing developers to quickly create software. The practice has become more popular as AI models have improved at coding; however, some warn that AI-generated code can be insecure.

ETH2030 architecture stack. Source: YQ

Buterin says AI code would have “critical bugs”

Buterin said that there were “massive caveats” to using AI, as the speed at which the code was written means it “almost certainly has lots of critical bugs, and probably in some cases ‘stub’ versions of a thing where the AI did not even try making the full version.”

“But six months ago, even this was far outside the realm of possibility, and what matters is where the trend is going,” he added.

Buterin cautioned that, instead of focusing on speed, more emphasis should be placed on security. 

“The right way to use it is to take half the gains from AI in speed, and half the gains in security: generate more test-cases, formally verify everything, make more multi-implementations of things.”

He said that he was personally excited about the possibility that bug-free code, “long considered an idealistic delusion,” will finally become first possible and “then a basic expectation.”

Buterin has been active commenting on the recently released roadmap from the Ethereum Foundation, “Strawmap,” which outlines all upgrades planned for the next four years. 

He has previously proposed plans to make Ethereum quantum-resistant and on Sunday said that account abstraction, or smart accounts, would “happen within a year.” 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 14:00

Construction Spending On Data Centers, Factories, Powerplants, And Office Buildings: Boom, Bust, And In Between

Authored by Wolf Richter via Wolf Street,

Construction spending on data centers in 2025 exploded by 32% from the prior year, by over 100% in two years, and by 344% from 2020, to $41 billion, according to the Census Bureau on Friday. Spending on construction costs of data centers used to be buried in office construction and was minimal compared to office construction. But more recently, the Census Bureau split out data-center construction spending going back to 2014.

Construction costs of data centers are only a relatively small portion of the immense amounts spent on AI infrastructure, most of which goes into electronic and electrical equipment, from AI servers to power generation equipment. Construction spending on data centers does not include the costs of the servers and racks but does include the cooling systems in the building and other built-in electrical equipment.

It takes years from the decision to build a data center to the data center being actually operational. And the massive amounts of capital expenditures announced by AI-related Corporate America in 2025 and the plans for 2026 haven’t yet shown up in the construction costs.

The amounts of capital expenditures being thrown around for 2026 are fantastical. Five companies alone – Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle – have announced plans for $700 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, largely for AI-related projects. And how will they get this cash next year?

So this construction boom is not slowing down, unless tripped up by further the shortages of all kinds, such as power from the grid, power generators when there is no grid power, electrical equipment, electricians, specialized labor, etc.

Inflation for construction costs for nonresidential buildings jumped by 1.1% in January from December, according to the Producer Price Index (PPI) for nonresidential construction, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday (it was hot all around). Year-over-year, the nonresidential construction PPI was up by 2.8%, almost all of which occurred over the past four months.

From January 2021 through December 2022, over those two years, prices had exploded by 34%. From the beginning of 2023 to mid-2025, prices flattened out. But they’re now taking off again.

Over the years 2021-2025, the PPI for nonresidential construction rose by 41%. With spending on data center construction up by 344% over the same period, the red-hot construction spending boom is not a result of inflation – but of the AI investment mania.

Construction spending on manufacturing plants has soared coming out of the pandemic. In 2025, at $220 billion, it was up by 192% from 2020.

This $220 billion in 2025 is over five times the amount spent on data centers ($41 billion).

The production equipment in the plant, such as the industrial robots, is not part of the construction costs. And they’re much more costly than the building itself.

Though still running at a red-hot pace, construction spending on factories has backed off from the spike in 2024, possibly as construction resources have been pulled away by the boom in data center construction, and amid reports of bottlenecks, shortages of skilled labor, and ICE hauling off workers from construction sites.

After decades of globalization, there is now a widespread rethink underway about production in the US.

These factories will all be highly automated to where manual labor is only a relatively small part of the product costs. Every year, year after year, decade after decade, automation improves, and companies try to cut their labor costs by expanding automation.

Within factory construction, spending on factories for computers, electronic, and electrical equipment exploded by 1,300% since 2020, from $9 billion in 2020 to $104 billion in 2025. This includes semiconductor plants and plants that build electrical equipment for the AI infrastructure boom.

Powerplant construction is a highly regulated process in terms of permitting and approvals, and it takes years from the decision to build a power plant to having a functional power plant hooked to the grid.

In 2025, a record $158 billion was spent on building power plants, up by 34% from 2020.

Electricity prices have soared by 41% over the past five years as demand for electricity has surged, after being roughly flat for 14 years. This increase in demand was largely driven by the new data centers.

But utilities and power generators are leery of spending billions of dollars on generation and distribution capacity for data centers that might never work out after the AI investment mania fizzles, which would turn these investments into stranded assets.

This leeriness is fed by the many hedge funds with ag land that want a utility to commit billions of dollars to run a high-voltage powerline to it, and possibly build a power plant to supply it with power, so that the hedge fund can then sell the ag land at a huge profit as data-center ready to some hyperscaler. If that deal doesn’t happen, the utility ends up with an expensive stranded asset.

Office building construction has taken a massive hit after it became clear that office landlords were getting into serious trouble as demand for office space collapsed during the pandemic. Countless landlords defaulted on their office mortgages, and numerous buildings were seized by lenders and sold in foreclosure sales for cents on the dollar. The going rate for office building transactions is now at discounts of 30% to 70% from pre-pandemic prices. The delinquency rate for office CMBS spiked to record 12.3% in January. And there are efforts underway in expensive markets to convert office towers into residential towers, while smaller office buildings get torn down and replaced with housing. Office CRE has been in a depression since 2022.

In a way, it seems surprising that anyone would still spend good money on office buildings, but it’s the old office towers that are in trouble, while the latest and greatest office towers see more demand from the flight to quality that high vacancy rates made possible.

So spending on office construction (not including data centers) dropped further in 2025, to $49 billion, the lowest since 2015, and down by 32% from the peak in 2020.

Some of this spending is for buildings that were planned years ago and that are being completed now. For example, JP Morgan’s $3-billion tower at 270 Park Avenue in Manhattan was announced in 2018, was formally topped off in November 2023, and had its grand opening in October 2025.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 13:20

SaaS: Is There Opportunity In The Destruction?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

A specter is haunting Wall Street - the specter of the “SaaSpocalypse.” Since the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) peaked on September 19, 2025, it has fallen roughly 30%. For context, the broad technology indexes like XLK and QQQ are essentially flat over the same period, and the semiconductor ETF (SMH) is up 30%. Between mid-January and mid-February 2026 alone, approximately one trillion dollars was wiped from the collective value of software stocks, with the S&P North American Software Index posting its worst monthly decline since the 2008 financial crisis.

The catalyst was a series of AI product launches, most notably Anthropic’s Claude Cowork tool and OpenAI’s enterprise agent, Frontier, demonstrating that AI agents can now handle complex knowledge work autonomously. The market’s interpretation was simple. If AI agents can replicate what enterprise software does, then enterprise software is finished. That is the narrative that has taken hold in recent weeks. The consequence has been brutal. Workday is down 35% year-to-date. Adobe has shed 26%. Salesforce, 25%. Atlassian plunged 35% in a single week. Even Microsoft, the ultimate blue chip, fell by more than 10%.

The thesis is straightforward enough. Generative AI can now write code, automate workflows, and rapidly and cheaply create customized applications. Therefore, if enterprises can build their own “disposable software,” micro-apps tailored to specific workflows, instead of paying bloated subscription fees, then the traditional per-seat SaaS pricing model is dead. Potentially worse is that AI lowers barriers to entry, enabling more competitors to quickly replicate existing software. Such would compress margins and weaken the moats that once protected large software firms.

It is a compelling narrative. The question investors must answer is whether it is true.

Will AI Actually Kill Software Stocks? Not So Fast

Like most market narratives, the SaaSpocalypse contains some truth, a great deal of speculation, and several outright falsehoods. The most important rebuttal is that the value of enterprise software has never resided solely in its code. Enterprise software encodes institutional architecture. That architecture is the deep domain knowledge, compliance frameworks, workflow logic, and years of organizational customization that companies depend on to function. Think about it this way. If you are a medium to large enterprise dependent on data to service customers, maintain workflows, and fulfill orders, are you going to trust something that AI created that is potentially unreliable or error-ridden? Or, are you more likely to rely on software with deep local context, reliable outputs, and that has been rigorously tested and debugged over years of application use?

“Add deep workflow embedding to the mix and the picture becomes clearer still. When a SaaS platform is the system of record inside core banking, hospital EHRs, or government case management, replacement isn’t a technical decision, it’s an organisational trauma. Staff retraining, data migration, permission re-architecture, and regulatory re-certification make a rip-and-replace approach impractical, even when a cheaper AI-built alternative exists on paper.” – LiveWire

Furthermore, the underlying data does not support the skepticism either. Gartner’s February 2026 forecast projects worldwide software spending will grow 14.7% in 2026 to more than $1.4 trillion, accelerating from 11.5% growth in 2025. That represents roughly $180 billion in net new software spending in a single year. Global SaaS spending specifically is projected to rise from $318 billion in 2025 to $576 billion by 2029, according to Forrester. The reality is that enterprises are not abandoning software; they are spending more on it. As Mark Gardner recently noted:

“However, this sell-off is analytically lazy. And it’s being driven, at least in part, by the very technology it fears hallucinating on its own research. We believe the difference this time is that investors have the opportunity to look through the noise and identify the SaaS businesses where the structural moats are not just intact, they’re actually widening.

It was also fascinating to listen to Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff in CRM’s latest quarterly earnings report. He specifically addressed the panic, invoking the term “SaaSpocalypse” at least 6 times. His point was blunt: this is not Salesforce’s first existential scare, and AI is making their products more valuable, not less. The company introduced a new metric, agentic work units, designed to capture the output-driven value of its AI-enabled platform. More importantly, Gartner’s own analysts note that GenAI features are now ubiquitous across enterprise software and are increasingly costly. In other words, the cost of software is going up precisely because of AI, not in spite of it. There is a meaningful difference between a technology that changes how software works and one that makes software unnecessary.

Survivors and Thrivers: Which SaaS Companies Have the Strongest Moats

If the SaaSpocalypse narrative proves to be more panic than prophecy, the critical task becomes identifying which companies will emerge stronger. Forrester’s research provides a useful framework: horizontal point-solution vendors with low switching costs and weak enterprise integration face genuine existential risk. But vertical- or domain-specific SaaS vendors, those addressing complex industries like healthcare, manufacturing, or financial services, or those controlling unique proprietary data, have a substantially greater chance of survival and even growth.

Furthermore, even before the “SaaSpocalypse” began, the revaluation of these companies was already well underway, and current prices are nowhere near the 2021 froth levels.

Therefore, as investors, we need to think about “separating the wheat from the chaff.” While valuations and fundamentals are important, the key will be finding the companies best positioned in the market. Those companies share several characteristics.

• First, platform-scale incumbents that serve as systems of record, Salesforce, Microsoft, Oracle, and ServiceNow, possess deep integration into enterprise workflows that cannot easily be replicated by a general-purpose AI agent. These companies are rapidly embedding AI agents alongside their existing deterministic processes, particularly for regulated industries.

• Second, cybersecurity firms like Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike occupy a category where AI is additive rather than substitutive. As enterprises deploy more AI systems, the attack surface expands.

• Third, data infrastructure and vertical SaaS companies that sit at the foundation of AI workloads or control proprietary domain data benefit directly from the same trend punishing commodity application vendors.

The table below highlights eight companies across four categories whose reported metrics most closely align with the characteristics that separate durable SaaS businesses from vulnerable ones.

So, where do you start your process?

Investor Playbook: Metrics That Matter and How to Position

For investors, the current dislocation presents both a challenge and an opportunity.

The biggest challenge is overcoming the “fear of loss.” Loss-avoidance is an emotional behavior that impedes our ability to “buy low,” as we fear prices will keep falling indefinitely. However, logic and fundamentals quickly refute that concern. However, it is a “barrier to entry” that keeps investors sidelined when prices decline, even as opportunities increase.

The statistical evidence of overshoot is significant. As Michael Lebowitz noted last week, the price ratio between IGV and XLK has diverged by nearly four standard deviations from historical norms over the past 100 days.

Based on the five-year relationship, either XLK is 10% overpriced, or IGV is 10% underpriced. When statistical relationships stretch this far, mean reversion eventually follows—though we caution that in environments where narratives are this powerful, divergences can persist longer than models suggest.

With this in mind, we suggest that doing your homework rather than listening to narratives is where the opportunity lies. Therefore, the right approach is to be surgical, rather than thematic. Rather than buying the entire beaten-down sector via IGV, which is okay if you only seek “average” returns, we think focusing on individual company fundamentals will yield better results. Therefore, here are a few metrics you can use to separate genuine AI beneficiaries from vulnerable incumbents. These metrics include:

• Price-To-Earnings Growth (PEG): Measures the current price of the shares relative to their expected growth rate of earnings in the future. PEG ratios of 1 or less are considered to be cheap valuations.

• Net Revenue Retention (NRR): Measures whether existing customers are spending more over time. Companies maintaining NRR above 120% demonstrate that AI features are expanding wallet share rather than cannibalizing it.

• Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): Measures whether forward demand is accelerating or decelerating, cutting through the noise of quarterly revenue.

• Free cash flow margins: Reveals whether companies can fund their AI transformation internally or must dilute shareholders to compete.

• AI attach rates: Measures the percentage of customers adopting AI-powered product tiers. It provides a real-time indicator of whether the AI transition is generating revenue or merely generating press releases.

A sustained SaaS recovery, as EBC Financial Group’s analysis notes, will likely require at least two of three conditions:

• More accommodative financial conditions,

• Enhanced earnings visibility, and/or

• A shift in the narrative from viewing AI as a threat to recognizing its monetization potential.

We think the latter two are the most likely.

For now, investors should remain cautiously positioned. Make small bets, manage your risk exposure, and give yourself plenty of time. The recognition of value often takes longer than logic would suggest, particularly when negative momentum is strong.

The SaaSpocalypse makes for dramatic headlines, but the idea that AI agents will simply devour enterprise software whole ignores both the data and the institutional complexity of the businesses being disrupted. The real risk for investors is not that they are too slow to sell their SaaS holdings. It is that they eventually get stampeded by market panic into undervaluing companies whose competitive positions are, in many cases, strengthening.

Discipline, not panic, is the appropriate response.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 12:40

What's Igniting Today's U.S. Antimony Spike? Potential Catalysts

United States Antimony Corp. shares are surging in the early U.S. cash session as geopolitical risk around U.S.-China relations is set to deteriorate, with Beijing's condemnation of the U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran raising the likelihood that President Trump's upcoming trip to Beijing could be a bust.

The deterioration in Sino-U.S. relations was evident overnight, with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi calling for an immediate ceasefire in Trump's Operation Epic Fury against Iran, which risks wider regional conflict.

Wang told Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on a phone call that the "blatant killing of a sovereign leader" and the incitement of regime change were "unacceptable." This phone call was based on reporting from China's state-run Xinhua news agency.

The killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro have created growing uncertainty around President Trump's three-day trip to China later this month.

"I worry the U.S. side might use Iran, if it's going poorly, to delay the trip," a foreign business executive tracking meeting preparations told CNBC.

The executive added, "I think the risk [of the trip falling apart] is on the U.S. side more than the Chinese side."

The likely deterioration in Sino-U.S. relations increases the risk of a new round of Chinese restrictions on critical-mineral and rare-earth exports targeting the U.S.

Let's not forget that Trump has effectively shuttered cheap oil flows from Venezuela and Iran to China (read here). Beijing is infuriated.

Attention has shifted to UAMY's strategic value as North America's only operator of antimony smelting capacity. This creates a unique position for the company if imports from Asia are curbed.  

UAMY +8% https://t.co/6fegdDj996

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 2, 2026

Shares are up more than 13% in the U.S. cash session.

Another potential catalyst (market-based): 

Related:

• China Introduces New Exports Controls On Antimony, Tungsten And Silver

• US Antimony Strengthens Domestic Supply Chain With Montana Mill Purchase

Beyond the risk of rare earth metals becoming a major focal point between Beijing and Washington (again), UAMY may also be rising, as antimony is a critical rare earth used in military production, especially in ammunition and other defense-related materials, as the sheer amount of air-delivered munitions used by U.S. and Israeli forces only suggests weapons production in the U.S. will have to ramp.

Read the report here. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 12:20

US Government Seizes Over $580 Million In Crypto Linked To Southeast Asian Scams

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via Bitcoin Magazine,

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Ferris Pirro said federal authorities have frozen and seized more than $580 million in cryptocurrency tied to Southeast Asian scam networks, marking a major escalation in the government’s campaign against cross-border crypto fraud.

The funds were restrained through the Justice Department’s Scam Center Strike Force, a task force formed in November to target cryptocurrency investment and confidence schemes linked to Chinese transnational criminal organizations. 

Officials said the groups use social media platforms and text messaging to target U.S. victims and siphon billions of dollars each year. Recent estimates place annual losses to Americans near $10 billion.

“In only three months, we have made significant progress, freezing, seizing, and forfeiting cryptocurrency worth more than $578 million from these criminals,” Pirro said in a statement. She said her office will seek forfeiture through the courts and aims to return funds to victims.

Authorities describe the schemes as “pig butchering” operations, in which fraudsters build relationships with victims before steering them into fraudulent crypto investments. Victims are persuaded to purchase legitimate digital assets and then transfer them to counterfeit trading platforms controlled by the scam networks.

The operations often run out of secured compounds in parts of Southeast Asia, including Burma, Cambodia, and Laos. U.S. officials said some workers inside the compounds are trafficking victims who are forced to carry out scams under threat of violence. In certain areas, revenue generated from scam activity accounts for a large share of local economic output.

The Strike Force is focused on identifying senior figures within the criminal networks, including organizers and money launderers who move proceeds through blockchain transactions and shell accounts. Investigators are tracing funds across exchanges and wallets to disrupt cash-out points and freeze assets before they are dispersed.

The initiative brings together the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia and several Justice Department divisions, along with the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the U.S. Secret Service, and the Internal Revenue Service’s Criminal Investigation unit. U.S. Attorney’s Offices in Rhode Island and the Western District of Washington are also participating.

The Justice Department said the Strike Force will continue targeting infrastructure, financial channels, and leadership structures tied to the fraud networks.

Crypto crime hit $154 Billion last year

Data from Chainalysis shows illicit crypto addresses received at least $154 billion in 2025, a 162% year-over-year increase, with sanctioned entities driving much of the surge. Nation-states including Russia, Iran, and North Korea played an outsized role, leveraging blockchain infrastructure for sanctions evasion, money laundering, and large-scale thefts.

Stablecoins accounted for 84% of illicit transaction volume, the report said. 

The report also highlights the expansion of Chinese money laundering networks offering “laundering-as-a-service” and other full-stack illicit infrastructure. Although illicit activity still represents less than 1% of total crypto volume, the scale and geopolitical dimension of the activity pose rising risks for regulators, law enforcement, and national security.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 12:00

Rep. Ted Lieu Spreads Bizarre Conspiracy In Congressional Hearing

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Years ago, Rep. Ted Lieu (D., Cal.) demanded that “Facebook should do more internally to regulate fake news and point out fake news.”

This week, he finally made his case for such private censorship. Lieu went full conspiracy theorist during a congressional hearing this week, leaving many gobsmacked. Lieu’s rave about the alleged murder of a child made the National Inquirer look like the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

In an age of rage, Lieu knows that you must go louder and bigger to be heard above the mob. Facts are no passé and Lieu is known for sensational claims like claiming that “Trump is broke.”

At a House Judiciary Committee hearing on the Epstein files, Lieu won the race to the bottom with his colleagues in making outrageous, unsupported claims. It was a moment reminiscent of the recent face-planting by Rep. Ro Khanna (D., Cal.) in disclosing the names of powerful men shielded by the Administration in the scandal. (Four had no connection to Epstein).

He suggested that Trump not only abused a minor, but that she was later bumped off to keep her from speaking. What Lieu does not inform the public is that his blockbuster disclosure was based on the unverified account of an anonymous man, who worked as a limo driver in 1995.

The bizarre account claimed the driver picked up Trump and overheard him on the phone with someone called “Jeffrey” and made references to “abusing some girl.” The driver said that he wanted to pull over and “hurt him”.

Driver Dan Ferree has self-identified as the source referenced by Lieu.

Ferree reportedly has posted hundreds of politically anti-Trump and extreme memes to his Facebook account, including a recent image of Trump in what appears to be a casket. He has also reportedly claimed that he was stalked by Trump associates.

In a defamation case, Ferree would be difficult to pass off as a credible source for a publication. The use of such sources is a familiar tactic in Washington. During the Chandra Levy scandal, politicians and pundits piled on Rep. Gary Condit (D., Cal.) as the presumptive murderer of the congressional intern. The source cited by Vanity Fair’s Dominick Dunne turned out to be a “horse whisperer” in Dubai who said that he had heard Condit arranged for her murder. (Condit was later cleared in the case).

Ferree is only marginally better than a horse whisperer as a source of Lieu. Ferree told the FBI that he met a young girl who told him she had been raped by Trump and Epstein at a “fancy hotel.” He claimed that the young girl was later found with her head “blown off.” He said that, while the officers at the scene thought it was murder, the coroner later ruled it a suicide. There was no proof of such a case.

It appears that Lieu knew or suspected that the source of the allegation was unhinged or unreliable because he later re-posted only two of the three pages of the statement to the FBI. The third page included other bizarre claims about the Oklahoma City Bombing and a drunk Hillary Clinton.

Lieu decided it was best to withhold the third page and the details of a raving, drunken Hillary Clinton and an effort to frame an innocent man for the Oklahoma bombing. It seems that he was not aggrieved that the FBI did not investigate that part of Ferree’s allegations.

Nevertheless, at an earlier event, Lieu declared:

“Why are Republicans so interested in Bill and Hillary Clinton? It’s because they’re trying to distract from the fact that Donald Trump is in the Epstein files thousands and thousands of times. In those files, there’s highly disturbing allegations of Donald Trump raping children, of Donald Trump threatening to kill children.”

What is striking is how so many politicians supporting the crackdown on disinformation on the right are purveyors of such disinformation. From the Russian conspiracy hoax to the flogging of migrants by Border agents, members and the media have regularly spread false accounts with impunity. It is not considered disinformation if it appears on BlueSky or MS NOW.

The intentional omission of the third page of the allegation puts this disinformation effort in a particularly menacing light. This was not some hair-triggered posting that failed to research the underlying story. This was a knowing effort to later re-post the sensational allegation while removing a third of the document that undermined the credibility of the source.

Indeed, while questioning why the FBI (including during the Biden Administration) failed to pursue this allegation, Lieu left out the part indicating that the source was utterly unreliable.

As an impeachment manager, Lieu condemned Trump over his “exhortations [and] the President’s sustained disinformation. We’ve seen a president stoking fears amidst these crises.” He demanded that Trump be removed from office based on that allegation of disinformation and inflammatory rhetoric.

Lieu knew that in our post-truth political environment, it really does not matter if an allegation is untrue. He is feeding a rage addiction among voters who ache for a steady stream of such outrageous claims. He is part of a trend that I have called the “new Jacobins” in Rage and the Republic, establishment figures who are pandering to the mob in seeking to ride the wave of rage back into power.

It was not long ago that Democrats and the media tore into members suggesting that the Clintons were involved in the suicide of key aide Vince Foster. The difference is that there was an actual body in that base. Lieu shows little concern over spreading a conspiracy theory based on an unestablished death raised by a driver who coupled his allegations with other wild claims about Hillary Clinton and the Oklahoma bombing.

It has long been accepted that “politics ain’t beanbag,” but Lieu shows that it is now simply bonkers.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the author of the New York Times bestselling “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 11:20

European Gas Prices Soar 50% After Qatar Shuts World's Largest LNG Export Plant

In its scenario analysis of how the Iran war could impact energy markets, Goldman laid out a section dedicated to nat gas, and specifically LNG, which like oil, is one of the commodities that is especially reliant on prompt passage through he Straits of Hormuz to reach its destination. 

Specifically, unlike oil which Goldman calculated had already priced in substantial war risk premium, "European gas (TTF) and spot LNG (JKM) prices have embedded little-to-no risk premium until this past Friday" and so, the bank saw "significant upside risk to prices from a potential sustained disruption of LNG supply through the Strait of Hormuz. In a scenario where flows halt for one month, we think it is likely that TTF and JKM could approach 74 EUR/MWh ($25/mmBtu) -- 130% above current levels -- a threshold that triggered large natural gas demand responses during the 2022 European energy crisis."

Here we go again: Europe among most exposed to Hormuz, with Goldman warning of massive 130% upside risk for European (TTF) gas prices, potentially hitting 74 EUR/MWh, if LNG flows are blocked https://t.co/yD07qFkNk4

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 2, 2026

Below we excerpt the key sections from the must read report (especially to European energy traders as we will discuss in a bit).

Q10. How much risk premium has been embedded in European gas prices?

Differently from oil, we believe that until this past Friday, European natural gas prices had embedded little-to-no risk premium associated with Iran-related geopolitical risks. Specifically, TTF has been pricing in the bottom half of our estimated hard-coal-to-gas (C2G) switching range for the past month, modestly below our 36 EUR/MWh March 2026 TTF forecast (Exhibit 11). Once accounting for the recent sell off in carbon emission prices to below the 80 EUR/t embedded in our TTF price forecast, worth 2.0-2.5 EUR/MWh in gas-equivalent terms, prompt gas prices are still largely in line with our view that TTF needs to be in this C2G switching range to help manage NW European gas storage to above 80% full by end-Oct26, given that current inventory levels remain well below average. That remains our view, and we maintain our 34 EUR/MWh balance-of-the-year TTF price forecast.

Q11. What are the risks to global gas prices from this weekend’s developments in the Middle East?

We see significant upside risk to European gas and global LNG prices. The most significant impact to global gas markets would come from a potential disruption of the approximately 80 mtpa (302 mcm/d or 11 Bcf/d, 19% of global LNG supply) of LNG that typically flow through the Strait of Hormuz (Exhibit 2), which could potentially arise from an escalation of the ongoing conflict. 

Specifically, in a scenario where LNG flows through the Strait are fully halted for one month, we estimate a resulting tightening of NW European gas storage equivalent to 8% of capacity. Our fuel switching models suggest that European gas prices would need to maximize both switching into hard coal and into oil products by pricing at or above distillate fuel price levels for over three and a half months to offset it. At current oil prices this would imply TTF essentially doubling to 62 EUR/MWh[10] ($21/mmBtu). Given that oil prices would also likely rally in this scenario, it is likely that TTF could approach the 74 EUR/MWh ($25/mmBtu) threshold that triggered large natural gas demand responses during the 2022 European energy crisis.

A hypothetical longer disruption of natural gas supply transit through the Strait of Hormuz lasting more than two months would likely lift European natural gas prices above 100 EUR/MWh ($35/mmBtu) to trigger more significant global gas demand destruction given the increased difficulty for the market to fully offset such a tightening shock ahead of the next winter.

See "Goldman's Commodity Desk Lays Out The Oil Price Scenarios From Iran War" for more details).

Well, for once Goldman's commodity research desk was spot on... and very quickly at that, because just one day later, TTF shot up as much as 50%, sparking chaos across Europe's energy markets in a deja vu moment of the start of the Ukraine war 4 years ago. Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, traded 46% higher at €46.77 a megawatt-hour by 2:31 p.m. in Amsterdam. That’s the highest level since February 2025.

Qatar’s Defense Ministry said said earlier that two drones launched from Iran had struck facilities in the country, although there were no casualties.

The catalyst behind today's sharp move is not the full closure of Hormuz, which Iran still claims is passable despite occasional ships in its vicinity randomly catching fire, but because early on Monday, Qatar Energy shut down liquefied natural gas production at the world’s largest export facility after it was targeted in an Iranian drone attack.

QatarEnergy to stop production of LNG

Due to military attacks on QatarEnergy’s operating facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City in the State of Qatar, QatarEnergy has ceased production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and associated products.…

— QatarEnergy (@qatarenergy) March 2, 2026

QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan plant covers about a fifth of global LNG supply and the unprecedented halt now threatens energy security worldwide. 

In kneejerk response, European benchmark gas futures jumped the most since the energy crisis in 2022, while tankers had already largely stopped transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global fuel shipments. Needless to say, one direct hit on an LNG ship and the fireworks would be historic. 

“The threat to security of supply is here and now,” said Simone Tagliapietra, an analyst at Bruegel. “The extent of it will depend on the duration of the shutdown, but we are now into a new scenario.”

The good news, if only for the US, is that as Goldman notes, there is "limited upside risk to US natural gas prices."

Bloomberg notes that while Asian countries buy most of the LNG shipped from the Middle East, a disruption will increase competition for alternative supplies pushing up prices worldwide, including in Europe.

European gas prices are also rallying as storage inventories are unusually low, and the region needs to import large volumes of LNG this summer to refill them ahead of next winter. While the intraday surge is the biggest since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine four years ago, benchmark prices are only at a one-year high because regional supplies haven’t been directly disrupted and traders are still assessing how long the conflict will last.

As we discussed yesterday, the key question for traders is how long the disruption will last: the longer, the higher prices will rise.  Even if the US boosts LNG production, it’s unlikely to be enough to offset supply from Qatar in the near-term. QatarEnergy is scheduled to start its Golden Pass expansion project in the US in the coming weeks but the facility won’t be at full capacity until next year. 

Gas trade disruptions in the Middle East could also eventually raise spot LNG demand from Turkey, according to BloombergNEF, as it imports pipeline fuel from Iran. 

Late on Sunday, Trump said the bombing campaign against Iran could last for weeks; The conflict continues to deepen, with blasts heard across Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, as states intercepted Iranian missiles launched in response to US-Israeli strikes.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 11:02

Target Cuts Synthetic Colors From Beloved Breakfast Food

Authored by Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell via The Daily Signal,

The Make America Healthy Again movement has made its mark on one of America’s largest retailers.

Dr. Marty Makary, FDA commissioner. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

Target announced Friday that every cereal it sells, including national brands, must exclude synthetic colors by the end of May.

Health and Human Services spokesman Andrew Nixon told The Daily Signal the move will “support healthier options for American families.”

“We’re encouraged to see companies listening to parents and taking voluntary steps to clean up ingredients in the foods they sell,” Nixon said. “Secretary Kennedy has been clear that families deserve transparency and the ability to make informed choices about what they’re feeding their children.”

Target is one of the first national retailers to remove synthetic colors across an entire grocery category. Food companies General Mills and Kraft Heinz have agreed to remove artificial colors from products in the United States by 2027, but Target has instituted a faster timeline.

“It’s great to see Target take the lead on the MAHA front with food dyes,” said Jay Richards, at the Heritage Foundation.

“This is a clear response to market signals from not only federal action but to consumers, who are waking up to the weird stuff in so much of our food. Let’s hope Target’s competitors get the message as well.”

This comes after the Food and Drug Administration came under fire for reportedly retreating from plans to ban artificial food dyes, a key goal of the MAHA movement.

The FDA announced in early February that food companies would be able to label their products as containing “no artificial colors” as long as they don’t use petroleum-based dyes.

FDA Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary pushed back on the report as “amusing fake news.”

“The FDA is moving full steam ahead,” he said.(se

In an interview with The Daily Signal on Dec. 9, Makary said he has seen a “tremendous amount of support in the food industry for our action to call for the removal of all nine petroleum-based food dyes from the U.S. food supply.”

He said he’s saying an awareness about the dangers of food dyes that America has not seen before.

“We again have to listen to parents; we have to listen to the American people,” he said.

“And when they say that they have seen their kids engage in aggressive behavior or attention deficit disorder behavior, they remove all petroleum-based food dyes completely from that food supply and the kids’ behavior improves or changes, and then a year down the road they’re reintroduced to the petroleum-based food dyes and the behavior regresses—those are data points.”

“We’ve got a randomized controlled trial of artificial petroleum-based dyes, and it did not—it was not favorable,” Makary continued.

“It suggested that it’s involved in behavioral disorders in children, specifically ADHD. So we want to create awareness.”

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Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 10:30

10Y Yield Extends Rise After Surge In ISM Manufacturing Prices

After ISM's almost unprecedented bounce higher in January, US Manufacturing dipped in February:

• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.4 to 51.6 - weakest in seven months

• ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.6 to 52.4 (better than expected)

And this is occurring as 'hard' data ebbs lower...

“February saw US manufacturers report the weakest expansion since last July, in a further sign that the overall pace of economic growth has moderated in recent months," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Under the hood we see the usual mixed bag of malarkey in surveys with S&P Global seeing input and output prices declining...

...but ISM seeing Prices explode higher...

ISM saw new orders decline, in line with S&P Global's view:

“Production growth slowed in response to a near-stalling of orders from customers, with exports falling especially sharply. Factory payroll growth was also barely changed, as concern over order book health caused a growing reticence to add to workforce numbers."

Rising oil prices - on the back of the military actions over the weekend - had already lifted UST yields early on but the surge in ISM prices (despite decline in S&P Global's) prompted further pain in bonds...

Businesses were reportedly disrupted by extreme weather, "which has clouded insights into the underlying strength of economic growth and suggests we may see some rebound once the weather clears, and it is encouraging to see manufacturers reporting improved optimism about the outlook."

However, Williamson notes that uncertainty over the political environment, and the tariff picture in particular, remains a drag on confidence, hiring and investment, which looks likely to persist in the coming months.

 

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 10:07

Key Events This Week: Payrolls, Retail Sales, ISM, Beige Book... And War In Iran

Outside the obvious and huge attention on the Middle East, the key focus this week will be on the US jobs report on Friday, retail sales on the same day, the ISM indices (today and Wednesday), and the Fed’s Beige Book, also due on Wednesday. European releases will include inflation data tomorrow and the ECB’s accounts of their February meeting on Thursday. Various global PMIs are also out this week.
In politics, highlights include the Two Sessions in China as well as the Spring Statement in the UK. Earnings reports will be due from Costco and Broadcom.

Delving deeper into the US data, the most important release in the week ahead is Friday’s February employment report. DB economists forecast headline payroll growth of 30k, down from 130k previously, with private payrolls rising by 50k after January’s unusually strong 172k gain. The moderation largely reflects payback from outsized hiring last month in private education and health services and construction, where job gains more than doubled their six month averages. Elsewhere in the establishment survey, economists expect average hourly earnings to rise 0.4% month over month, unchanged from January, while the average workweek remains steady at 34.3 hours.

The household survey adds an additional layer of uncertainty this month, as the BLS implements its delayed annual population controls. DB's economists forecast the unemployment rate at 4.3%, though risks around this estimate are elevated in both directions. January data will also be revised using the new controls, and attention will be focused on whether these adjustments meaningfully alter unemployment rates across demographic groups, particularly among younger cohorts, where concerns around entry level hiring remain heightened.

Friday also brings January retail sales, where weather related weakness in auto sales is likely to weigh on the headline figure. DB economists expect headline sales to decline 0.6%, with sales excluding autos down 0.1%, partly reflecting lower gasoline prices. That said, retail control sales are forecast to rebound by 0.3%, pointing to a firmer underlying pace of goods consumption. Tax refunds should provide additional support to spending in coming months, with the average refund running meaningfully higher than a year ago.

Ahead of Friday, several other releases will help set the tone. Today’s manufacturing ISM is expected to edge up to 53.3 from 52.6. Wednesday brings the ADP employment report, forecast at 50k (though seasonals might push it higher), alongside the non manufacturing ISM, seen at 54.0.

Other notable data include February unit motor vehicle sales tomorrow, which is expected at 15.1 million, potentially restrained again by adverse weather. Thursday’s preliminary Q4 productivity and unit labor cost figures are forecast at 1.3% and 2.2%, respectively.

Moving to Europe, the focus will continue to be on inflation, with February prints due for the Eurozone and Italy tomorrow, Switzerland on Wednesday, and Sweden on Thursday. ECB speakers will include President Lagarde today, and the central bank will release the accounts of its February meeting on Thursday. 

In the UK, attention will be on the Spring Statement delivered by the Chancellor tomorrow, and our UK economist previews it here. There will also be the February DMP survey from the BoE on Thursday.

Over in Asia, the spotlight will be on China’s annual Two Sessions starting Wednesday (running through March 11), followed by the National People’s Congress session opening on Thursday, with the 15th Five Year Plan expected. Elsewhere, data highlights will include the February PMIs, both the official and private gauges, in China on Wednesday.

In Japan, the Shunto wage demands due on Thursday are the most anticipated event next week and expects wage demands this year to come in at 6.0%. There will also be the Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations (MoF survey) for Q4 on Tuesday, as well as the February consumer sentiment index on Wednesday.  

Earnings will include tech firms Broadcom, CrowdStrike and Marvell. US consumer firms will continue to be in focus, with reports from Costco and Target.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday March 2

• Data: US February ISM manufacturing, UK January net consumer credit, M4, Germany January retail sales, Italy February manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, Canada February manufacturing PMI
• Central banks: ECB's Lagarde, Nagel and Stournaras speak, BoJ's Himino speaks, BoE's Taylor speaks, BoC’s Kozicki speaks
• Earnings: AST SpaceMobile, EchoStar, Venture Global, Norwegian Cruise Line

Tuesday March 3

• Data: US February total vehicle sales, Japan January jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, February monetary base, Q4 Ministry of Finance survey, France January budget balance, Eurozone February CPI, Italy February CPI
• Central banks: Fed's Williams and Kashkari speak, ECB's Kocher and Sleijpen speak
• Earnings: Crowdstrike, Thales, AutoZone, Target, ASM, Kuehne + Nagel, On Holding, Gitlab
• Other: UK Spring Statement

Wednesday March 4

• Data: US February ISM services, ADP report, UK February official reserves changes, China February PMIs, Japan February consumer confidence index, Italy February services PMI, January unemployment rate, Eurozone January PPI, unemployment rate, Canada Q4 labor productivity, February services PMI, Switzerland February CPI, Australia Q4 GDP
• Central banks: Fed’s Beige Book, ECB's Muller, Cipollone, Villeroy and Guindos speak, BoC’s Macklem speaks
• Earnings: Broadcom, Bayer, adidas, Veeva, Okta, Davide Campari-Milano
• Other: China’s Two Sessions start

Thursday March 5

• Data: US January import price index, export price index, Q4 nonfarm productivity, Q4 unit labor costs, initial jobless claims, UK February new car registrations, construction PMI, Germany February construction PMI, France January industrial production, Italy January retail sales, Eurozone January retail sales, Sweden February CPI
• Central banks: ECB’s accounts of the February meeting, ECB's Lagarde, Guindos, Rehn and Nagel speak, BoE’s February DMP survey 
• Earnings: Costco, Petroleo Brasileiro, Marvell, Deutsche Post, Reckitt Benckiser, Ciena, Galderma, Kroger, Universal Music Group
• Other: China’s NPC’s session starts

Friday March 6

• Data: US February jobs report, US Retail Sales, January consumer credit, Germany January factory orders
• Central banks: Fed's Hammack speaks, ECB's Cipollone and Schnabel speak

* * * * *

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the retail sales report and the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including an event with New York Fed President Williams on Tuesday.

Monday, March 2 

• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, February final (consensus 51.4, last 51.2) 
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, February (GS 51.0, consensus 51.5, last 52.6): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index declined by 1.6pt to 51.0 in February, reflecting reversion after an outsized increase in the prior month. Our manufacturing survey tracker edged up by 0.1pt to 52.4.

Tuesday, March 3 

• 09:55 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will give keynote remarks at America’s Credit Union Government Affairs conference in Washington DC. Speech text and Q&A are expected.
• 11:55 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President, Neel Kashkari, will participate in a conversation with Mike McKee at the Bloomberg Invest conference in New York City. Q&A is expected. On January 5, Kashkari said, “My guess is we are pretty close to neutral right now.” He added that “we just need to get more data to see [whether inflation or the labor market] is the bigger force, [and] then we can move from a neutral stance to whatever direction is necessary.”
• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, February (GS 15.6mn, consensus 15.4mn, last 14.9mn)

Wednesday, March 4 

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, February (GS +50k, consensus +50k, last +22k)
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, February final (consensus 52.3, last 52.3) 
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, February (GS 53.5, consensus 53.5, last 53.8): We estimate that the ISM services index edged down by 0.3pt to 53.5 in February, reflecting a decline in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (-1.3pt to 52.0) but a tailwind from potential residual seasonality.
• 02:00 PM Fed Releases Beige Book, March meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the January FOMC meeting period noted that overall economic activity increased at a slight to modest pace in eight of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, with three Districts reporting no change and one reporting a modest decline, marking an improvement over the last three reports. In this month’s Beige Book, we will look for anecdotes related to the evolution of labor demand and firms’ expectations of activity growth for the remainder of the year.

Thursday, March 5 

• 08:30 AM Import price index, January (consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%) 
• 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q4 preliminary (GS +2.2%, consensus +1.8%, last +4.9%): Unit labor costs, Q4 preliminary (GS +2.4%, consensus +2.0%, last -1.9%)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended February 28 (GS 215k, consensus 215k, last 212k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended February 21 (consensus 1,845k, last 1,833k)

Friday, March 6 

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, February (GS +45k, consensus +60k, last +130k); Private payroll employment, February (GS +45k, consensus +70k, last +172k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), February (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); Unemployment rate, February (GS 4.4%, consensus 4.3%, last 4.3%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 45k in February. On the negative side, we expect a 31k drag from newly striking workers and a modest headwind from poor winter weather after it likely boosted January payroll growth. Additionally, we expect unchanged government payrolls—reflecting a 5k decline in federal government payrolls that is offset by a 5k increase in state and local government payrolls. The big data indicators of job growth we track were mixed in February. On the positive side, the pace of layoffs remained subdued and online measures of job openings stabilized. We estimate that the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4% in February. While other measures of labor market tightness improved slightly on net, the February unemployment rate appears to suffer from positive residual seasonality (the unrounded unemployment rate has increased in each of the last three Februarys by an average of 0.15pp). The report will be accompanied by updated population controls, which are likely to lead to downward revisions to the level of the population, labor force, and household employment. The impact on ratios in the survey (e.g., the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate) is likely to be negligible. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month in February, reflecting neutral calendar effects.
• 08:30 AM Retail sales, January (GS -0.1%, consensus -0.3%, last flat); Retail sales ex-auto, January (GS +0.1%, consensus flat, last flat); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, January (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last flat); Core retail sales, January (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.1%): We estimate core retail sales increased 0.5% in January (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting solid alternative data and a tailwind from potential residual seasonality. We estimate headline retail sales declined 0.1%, reflecting a decline in auto sales and lower gasoline prices.
• 10:15 AM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (FOMC voter) speak: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will discuss private sector data at the US Monetary Policy Forum held by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in New York City. Text and Q&A are expected. On February 17, Daly said, “The Fed has roughly 75bps to go until getting to neutral…the policy stance now is modestly or slightly restrictive.”
• 01:30 PM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will participate in a panel discussion on the dollar’s safe-haven status at the US Monetary Policy Forum in New York City. Text and Q&A are expected. On February 10, Hammack said, “Rather than trying to fine-tune the fed funds rate, I’d prefer to err on the side of patience as we assess the impact of recent rate reductions and monitor how the economy performs.” She also noted, “Based on my forecast, we could be on hold for quite some time.”

Soruce: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 09:53

Migrants Filmed Catching And Butchering Swans, Ducks In UK And Ireland

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Shocking videos reveal migrants setting traps and snatching protected birds from public waterways, fueling outrage over unchecked immigration destroying local wildlife.

Video evidence from Ireland shows a local resident dismantling crude wire cages placed along Dublin’s Grand Canal by tent-dwelling migrants, believed to be targeting swans and ducks for consumption. 

The footage captures the man, accompanied by his dog, uprooting the traps hidden in the grass near the water’s edge.

Ever wonder why swans and ducks are disappearing from our rivers, canals and ponds in Ireland? Fair play to this man (and his dog), who paid a visit to the Grand Canal to dismantle cage traps set up by male migrants in tents. pic.twitter.com/aiV2PjyX44

— Susanne Delaney (@SuzieD755164) February 27, 2026

In the clip, no direct dialogue is heard, but the intent is clear as the resident methodically removes the snares, preventing what could have been a slaughter of iconic birds.

This incident echoes similar scenes across the UK. One video documents an RSPCA officer confronting a migrant family suspected of poaching and cooking a large white bird, possibly a swan.

?NEWS: MIGRANTS EATING SWANS WILL NOT BE CHARGED

– They have been warned not to do it again by the RSPCA

Swans are a protected species
These people don't care
We need mass deportations pic.twitter.com/eWeX2O7lKS

— Basil the Great (@BasilTheGreat) June 12, 2025

“I’m going to get someone to check what bird this is. I think it might be a swan, but do you know the big white birds that you see on the park?” the officer questions.

She inspects the pot: “You can see bones in this bird because he isn’t chicken so I am concerned. There are laws against people taking animals… It’s very serious. It’s very serious if that happens.”

Examining the bin, she notes: “You see problem is there are lot of big white feathers here.”

The family claims the birds were bought and released during a children’s chase game, but the officer warns: “What I need to make sure is everybody here knows that they’re not allowed to take anything from the park. I’m not saying you did.”

Another clip shows a family carrying a wild bird they have clearly taken and are intending to eat.

pic.twitter.com/EdKBY1z82Z

— Sandra White (@SandraW42990) September 25, 2025

Another clip shows a migrant grabbing a swan in a park.

This has to be false. The mainstream media told us migrants were not eating the swans! pic.twitter.com/QXyb2kJrdq

— Ian Miles Cheong (@ianmiles) October 27, 2025

Another post asks “What is this migrant doing?” as a man hauls a struggling swan over a railing.

The migrants are eating the swans pic.twitter.com/LHF08sCEI7

— karma (@karma44921039) September 26, 2025

Similar footage captures a man on a bridge snatching a swan from the water below, swinging it by the neck before walking away.

So cool that there is a large amount of video and photographic evidence showing Middle Eastern migrants stealing swans from public parks in the UK and the political-media class establishment just treat you like you’re an idiot if you talk about it

We’re still at the “it’s not… https://t.co/1pLMzwIiLL pic.twitter.com/fzv0Ig3JMV

— Drew Pavlou ???????? (@DrewPavlou) September 27, 2025

These videos and many more like them have sparked furious reactions online.

Fuck me is there anything these cunts won’t steal/kill

— BigStar (@BigStarDub) February 27, 2026

Everything that isn’t nailed down is fair game to these grifting free loaders.

— Erin’s Bestie (@SarahConnorIE) February 27, 2026

fucking bastards. Such a betrayal of these animals that don't really see us as a threat.

— Kenny (@kenny_Irl) February 27, 2026

Yep me and some angling friends have noticed pike numbers way down. They are also being eaten. ?

— Bríain Ó Éire (@Eirinn76) February 27, 2026

Is nothing safe from the savages ? ??

— Alexa (@Alexa69484823) February 27, 2026

Dear Lord these people are really sick,life in the UK is just getting so hard ,these people are not like us they have no heart void of any feelings ?

— Ann Spence (@Annspence108Ann) February 27, 2026

The cases parallel the chaos in Springfield, Ohio, where Haitian migrants have been accused of decapitating and eating ducks in parks. 

A resident testified at a city commission meeting: “They’re in the park grabbing up ducks by their neck and cutting their head off and walking off with ’em and eating them.”

He questioned officials: “Who is getting paid? Like how much money is y’all really getting paid? Like to bring them over here, like I know it’s deeper than them.”

NEW: Springfield, Ohio man says Haitian illegals are decap*tating ducks from parks & eating them, accuses commission members of getting paid off for allowing it.

“They're in the park grabbing up ducks by their neck and cutting their head off and walking off with 'em and eating… pic.twitter.com/uE3wI3CXl3

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 8, 2024

As we previously reported, Springfield’s city manager admitted hearing such reports, despite later denials amid media “fact checks” dismissing the issue as misinformation.

This pattern exposes the failures of open-border policies, importing incompatible cultural practices that harm protected wildlife and erode community safety. From Ohio’s overwhelmed streets to Britain’s depleted parks, the toll of mass migration mounts.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 09:15

Modern Warfare Sees First Drone Strike On A Commercial Data Center

We told readers one month ago that, while trillions of dollars are being allocated to the global data center buildout, virtually every Wall Street analyst remains fixated on financing, chip stacks, power, land, water, and other obvious mainstream inputs. However, we identified one overlooked emerging threat they missed: the risk of kamikaze drone attacks.

By Sunday morning, that risk was realized, as our note pointed out that Amazon's cloud unit, AWS, experienced degraded service in the United Arab Emirates due to a "localized power issue."

Now, a Reuters report provides more color on what exactly happened after an AWS data center in the UAE had to shut down operations, in what appears to be the first known instance of a commercial data center being physically targeted in a conflict.

Reuters reports that an object struck an AWS data center in the UAE, causing a fire and shutting it down. Assuming this was an Iranian drone strike, it is the first time a commercial data center was physically targeted in a conflict. It won’t be the last.https://t.co/4b7DHklwoU

— Chris McGuire (@ChrisRMcGuire) March 1, 2026

UAE Data Center Map

The first commercial data center to be damaged on the modern battlefield is certainly not going to be the last, as the Ukraine war has created a period of rapid weapon development over the last four years, as well as in other conflict areas around the world, with the proliferation of FPVs and cheap drones with warheads and AI kill chains.

This threat was outlined in our note titled "Explosion In AI Data Center Buildouts Will Demand Next-Gen Counter-Drone Security," as we recognized that the rapid development in this war technology has effectively accelerated war tech from the 2030s to today (read here). There were absolutely no Wall Street analysts we read on a daily basis discussing this emerging drone threat to data centers as the great buildout unfolded. Analysts were too busy talking about power and AI chips.

But guess who was talking about the data center threat about a year ago? Well... former Google CEO Eric Schmidt (read here). Schmidt was in Ukraine in January (read here).  

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 08:55

Futures Tumble As Iran War Sends Oil, Gold And Dollar Sharply Higher

US equity futures and global stocks tumbled, the dollar and gold rallied and oil soared as military strikes intensified across the Middle East, sending oil to its biggest surge in four years and stoking concern that faster inflation could weigh on the global economy. AS of 8:10am ET, S&P 500 futures are down more than 1% - but off overnight lows - after the cash index fell nearly 1% over the previous two trading days; Nasdaq futures tumbled 1.5% with all Mag 7 stocks lower by more than 1% in premarket trading; Aerospace/Defense, Energy, and Gold Miners are the safety havens in equities and all are bid pre-mkt; PLTR +4% may help +Software/-Semis. In the latest war news, AMZN data centers were hit in Bahrain/UAE, as was a UK base in Cyprus; with Israel attacking Lebanon; both Israeli and Saudi indices opened higher before reversing lower due to escalation. After soaring 13% at the open, crude oil traded down to +4% and was now +7.5% after Saudi Aramco halted operations at its Ras Tanura refinery after a drone strike in the area. Bond yields are notably higher, rising +4-5bps with the USD bid against all major FX and DXY +57bp which would be its best day since Feb 2. Energy is unsurprisingly leading commodities higher with double-digit gains in gasoil, heating oil, and EU natgas. Gold, which is now at $5400, is leading silver ($94/oz) with platinum flat. 

In premarket trading, energy and defense stocks rallied, with Exxon Mobil shares climbing 5.2% in early trading. British Airways owner IAG SA fell 5.4% amid a widespread disruption to flights in the Middle East. Mag 7 stocks all fall (Microsoft -0.8%, Apple -1%, Nvidia -1.3%, Meta -1.7%, Amazon -2.4%, Alphabet -2.6%, Tesla -2.1%)

• The Iran conflict is pushing shares of airlines and cruise operators lower, while energy stocks jump. Movers include American Airlines (AAL) -6% and Exxon (XOM) +4%.
• US banks and financials are pointing lower as risk off sentiment extends with military strikes intensifying across the Middle East. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) -2%, Wells Fargo (WFC) -1.7%.
• AES Corp. (AES) falls 16% after a consortium led by Global Infrastructure Partners and EQT agreed to buy the electric utility.
• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) slips 1% after the conglomerate’s operating profits fell nearly 30% in Warren Buffett’s last quarter as CEO. Analysts note weakness in the company’s insurance businesses.
• EchoStar (SATS) declines 2% after the parent of Dish Network posted a net loss in the fourth quarter.
• Paramount Skydance (PSKY) rises 5% after Warner Bros. Discovery filed a join-statement following the market close on Friday announcing that they had entered into a definitive merger agreement.
• UniQure (QURE) tumbles 41% after US regulators said the company should conduct a pivotal study before getting approval of its gene therapy for Huntington’s disease, another example of the Trump administration slowing a treatment for a rare disease drug.

While markets are recoiling from the latest war in the Middle East, the strikes on Iran were heavily telegraphed and traders had built up meaningful hedging. Still, the conflict may be longer and wider than some expected. Trump said the bombing campaign against Iran will continue, perhaps for weeks. Iran fired missiles on Israel, US military bases and Persian Gulf countries including the financial hub of Dubai (there is a full summary of all the latest war news in the section below).

The war in Iran is adding to a list of headwinds for markets already on edge after fears over disruption from artificial intelligence and pressure in private credit have nearly erased this year’s gains in the S&P 500. Investors are now focused on how long the conflict will last and how far hostilities might spread, after President Donald Trump said the campaign could continue for weeks.

"The endgame remains highly uncertain, ranging from a relatively swift political exit to a broader regional spillover,” said Mathieu Racheter, head of equity strategy at Julius Baer. “In such a fog of war, markets tend to trade probabilities rather than shifting facts.”

The dollar strengthened as a spike in oil prices spurred traders to dial back bets on Fed rate cuts this year, with Bloomberg economists writing that changes to Fed policy are far from guaranteed, despite the war. The team’s risk scenario is for oil to raise to $108 a barrel, while a more temporary spike would keep the Fed on alert, but not trigger a shift in policy.

Meanwhile, Aramco halted operations at Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery after a drone strike in the area, Bloomberg reported. QatarEnergy’s decision to cease LNG production followed attacks on its Ras Laffan complex, sending European gas prices soaring.

“It is still very unclear what the duration of the conflict will be and more importantly, how the energy market reacts,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. “One positive for the US is that the market has corrected since January, so we are not in overbought territory. It’s fair to say havens should continue to outperform.”

Strategists are coalescing around the view that a buying opportunity for US stocks may emerge. JPMorgan’s Mislav Matejka said the weekend’s events will naturally lead to risk-off in the short term, but investors with a 3/6/12-month time frame should use weakness to increase exposure. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson agrees that the bullish view is intact for now, with a lasting spike in oil above $100 needed to impact the US equity outlook.

Still, geopolitical events underscore the need to diversify and hedge portfolios at a much faster pace over the next few months, according to today’s Taking Stock column. The impact on the stock market will be determined by its duration, Citigroup strategists said, as they presume a shorter-term impact.

Prashant Bhayani, chief investment officer for Asia at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, said the main questions traders are looking out for are how long the disruption lasts, developments in the Strait of Hormuz, any impact on oil infrastructure and whether Iran and the US can reach a negotiated settlement. “Most geopolitical events have limited long-term impact on asset markets,” Bhayani said. “There is already a premium in oil of circa $7-$10 before today’s trading. Only in an extended conflict, with oil prices over $100, would it materially impact the global economy.”

On the economic front, payrolls come back into focus later this week with the survey forecasting a more modest pace of hiring in February relative to the start of the year. January retail sales data is also due Friday, while the Fed’s Beige Book is released on Wednesday. 

The Stoxx 600 has pared its fall, to 1.4%, although remains on course for its worst daily performance since November after conflict in the Middle East escalated over the weekend. Energy is the only sector in the green, while retail, travel and consumer product stocks fall the most. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• Shipping and logistics stocks are among the few gainers in European trading on Monday as conflict in the Middle East disrupts the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping routes.
• Energy stocks rise on back of an oil-price surge triggered by US and Israeli strikes against Iran. Morgan Stanley upgraded the sector to overweight, while JPMorgan upped its price targets on a slew of companies.
• Galp Energia shares rise as much as 9.6%, hitting their highest level since mid-2024, as rising Middle East tensions cause oil prices to surge.
• European defense stocks jump, with BAE Systems among those hitting record highs, as conflict in the Middle East spurs expectations of elevated security spending.
• Novo Nordisk shares fall as much as 5.7% and were downgraded to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs after data last week showed its next-generation obesity drug CagriSema delivered less weight loss than Eli Lilly’s rival blockbuster.
• European banks fall as war between the US and Iran triggered a broad-based selloff.
• European airlines stocks slump as conflict in the Middle East causes major disruptions at some of the world’s busiest airports. Analysts flag higher fuel costs and air space closures as factors likely to disrupt the sector.
• Informa shares sink as much as 11%, the biggest intraday drop since the Covid outbreak of 2020, as the events firm got swept up in the selloff of stocks exposed to the conflict in the Middle East.
• Oxford Nanopore shares drop as much as 18% after the British DNA-sequencing company cut its medium-term growth guidance, which analysts say will spark consensus downgrades.
• Luxury stocks fall as the escalating conflict in the Middle East creates a “highly uncertain backdrop” for the sector, according to Vontobel.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks dropped for the first time in six days as the US-Israeli war against Iran prompted investors to reduce exposure to risk assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1.8%, the most in a month, with financials and health-care the worst-performing sectors. A subgauge of energy shares climbed nearly 1% as oil rallied. Pakistani shares plunged the most on record after geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated, while benchmarks in Thailand, the Philippines and Hong Kong were leading declines in the region. Markets in South Korea were shut for a holiday. For Asian assets, the main risk from a prolonged Middle East conflict lies in a stronger dollar and higher oil prices, given that most economies in the region are net energy importers. A gauge of the greenback advanced on Monday and oil prices spiked before paring gains following a report that indicated at least one top official in Tehran sought to resume nuclear talks with the US. Japan’s Topix also dropped nearly 3% before paring declines, with bank stocks among the biggest losers.

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slumped 1.8% to enter a technical correction. A gauge of Chinese tech shares listed in the financial hub — which entered a bear market last month — shed 2.9%. The declines came as investors keenly awaited the start of China’s most important annual political meeting from Thursday, where top leaders are expected to set the growth target for 2026 and lay out economic priorities for the coming five years.

In FX, the dollar has pulled back from the highs. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.5%. The Swedish krona is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.9%. The Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone have been the most resilient.

In rates, treasuries hold losses after erasing opening gains that were spurred by broadening Middle East warfare after the US struck Iran. The reversal suggested that traders chose to bet on the potential inflationary aspects of the US-Iran conflict rather than rush to safe havens which helped Friday’s rally into month-end. Adding to upside pressure on yields, US benchmark crude oil futures are up about 8% with tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a near standstill. US yields are 3bp to 4bp higher, keeping curve spreads within 1bp of Friday’s closing levels. 10-year is near 3.98% vs session low 3.922% reached shortly after the Asia open. European government bonds are also in the red with underperformance seen in shorter-dated maturities as traders trim bets on interest rate cuts by the Bank of England and European Central Bank.

For Geoff Yu, senior macro strategist at BNY, Monday’s rise in US yields came as no big surprise given the elevated levels at which bonds were trading. The 10-year rate was at 3.99%, five basis points higher for the day.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures rose the most in four years, while Brent crude soared more than 7%, topping $80 a barrel as traders assess how quickly Hormuz traffic can normalize. In Europe, natural gas jumped as much as 28%, the biggest increase since August 2023 after Goldman warned that European natural gas prices could more than double if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is halted for one month. Spot gold rises 2% and briefly topped $5,400/oz. Silver logs a slightly smaller gain. Bitcoin rises 0.8%. 

US economic data slate includes February final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and February ISM manufacturing (10am); no Fed speakers are scheduled

Market snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -1.4%
• Russell 2000 mini -1.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -1.3%
• DAX -1.6%
• CAC 40 -1.5%
• 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 3.96%
• VIX +3.4 points at 23.3
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.4% at 1192.78
• euro -0.6% at $1.1743
• WTI crude +7.4% at $72.01/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Donald Trump said the bombing campaign against Iran may last for weeks and called on the nation’s leaders to capitulate. Blasts were heard across several Gulf states as they intercepted missiles launched by Iran. Trump is pushing for an Iranian leadership change but told ABC his preferred candidates to lead Iran were killed in the initial US strike. BBG
• Iran is planning to name a new supreme leader within days after Saturday’s killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. While Trump has urged Iranians to seize power from the regime, there’s no sign the US has laid the groundwork for an opposition movement. BBG
• The IDF bombed Lebanon after Hezbollah fired rockets and drones into Israel, opening a new front in a widening regional war. Lebanon ordered the militant group to disarm. BBG
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called the killing of Khamenei “unacceptable,” complicating the planned summit between Trump and President Xi Jinping. Beijing said Washington gave it no advance warning of the attack, and added that they are in communication with the US about exchanges between their leaders. BBG
• China Foreign Ministry said they are in communication with the US about exchanges between their leaders.
• Wealthy investors who ploughed hundreds of billions of dollars into private credit are pulling back, cutting off a key source of funds that investment giants including Blackstone, Blue Owl, and Ares Management have used to fuel their growth. New commitments to so called non traded business development companies slid 40% to $3.2bn in January compared with December. FT
• DeepSeek is set to release its latest large language model next week, more than a year since its last major release in a fresh test of China’s ambitions to challenge US rivals in AI.
• A gauge of manufacturing activity signaled continued improvement in some of Asia’s top exporting economies midway through the first quarter, as demand for the region’s goods defied a volatile global environment. WSJ
• Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said the central bank is expected to keep raising interest rates but gave no hints on the timing of the next hike, as the Middle East conflict heightened uncertainty over the economic outlook. RTRS
• Russian officials increasingly consider there’s no point to continue US-led peace talks with Ukraine unless Kyiv is willing to cede territory to reach a deal, according to people familiar with the negotiations. BBG

Iran War

• US and Israel launched a large-scale joint military operation against Iran on Saturday, 28th February, with explosions reported across Tehran shortly after 09:30 local time (06:00 GMT / 01:00 EST), and additional strikes were confirmed in Isfahan, Qom, Karaj and Kermanshah, while the Israeli military confirmed it launched an additional wave of strikes on Sunday morning, targeting Iran's ballistic missile and aerial defence systems.
• Iran launched immediate retaliatory missile and drone attacks against Israel, and multiple US military installations across the Gulf and multiple Gulf states, including the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain. Iranian state television officially confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following Saturday’s US–Israeli “decapitation strike” on his secure residence and office compound in central Tehran. Furthermore, IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to international navigation until further notice, while major tanker operators and global trading houses have halted crude, fuel and LNG shipments through the waterway. IRGC also announced on Sunday that they hit 3 US and UK oil tankers with missiles in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran launched a fresh wave of missile and drone attacks on Sunday, while Iranian sources stated that 27 US bases across the region were targeted, along with Israel’s military headquarters in Tel Aviv. It was also reported that Iran fired missiles towards British military bases in Cyprus and that rockets landed near British troops in Bahrain.
• Israeli Air Force launched a new wave of attacks on Iranian regime targets in Tehran early on Monday and bombarded Hezbollah strongholds in the southern suburb of Beirut, while Hezbollah fired rockets towards Northern Israel for the first time since the ceasefire agreement, and it was also reported that Hezbollah parliamentary bloc head Mohammed Raad was killed in an Israeli raid.
• US President Trump said the US military launched “major combat operations” in Iran with the objective of defending the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime. Trump said people in Iran should stay at home and that bombs will be dropping everywhere, while he called for Iranians to take over the government.
• US President Trump said that Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei had died, and he was informed that they destroyed and sank nine Iranian ships, as well as largely destroyed the naval headquarters. Trump separately commented that the military operations are ahead of schedule and that 48 leaders were killed in strikes on Iran, while he also stated that Iranian leaders want to talk and he has agreed to talk, but couldn’t say if it would happen soon, according to Atlantic Magazine and Daily Mail. Furthermore, Trump suggested that the fighting with Iran could go on for four weeks, while he also stated on Sunday that they have hit hundreds of targets in Iran under ‘Operation Epic Fury’ and combat operations will continue in full force until all objectives are complete.
• US President Trump said he could lift sanctions on Iran if its next leader proves pragmatic and that he had three very good choices for Iran's next leader, although he also commented that the people he considered for Iran's next leader died in the air attacks.
• US Secretary of War Hegseth is to hold a press conference at 08:00EST/13:00GMT. White House separately announced that US Secretary of State Rubio and Secretary of War Hegseth are to brief a full Congress on Tuesday.
• US officials told Al Jazeera that the strikes on Iran are focused on military targets and will be far more extensive than the US strikes last June, while the US reported that three US service members died and five were seriously wounded amid the operations against Iran.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said the US and Israel operations are to remove the existential threat from the Iranian regime, while Israeli officials characterised the action as a “pre-emptive strike” to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Israel ordered the shutdown of some natural gas fields as a security measure following the US-Israel strike on Iran, while it pre-approved a USD 2.9bln supplement to the defence budget to fund the war with Iran.

Trade/Tariffs 

• India's Foreign Ministry announces that they have signed an uranium supply agreement with Canada.
• Singapore and South Korea are in talks to upgrade a free trade agreement.

 A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly pressured as all focus centred on geopolitics following the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, which killed its Supreme Leader and dozens of officials, while Iran responded with retaliatory strikes against the US and allies, including several neighbours in the Gulf. ASX 200 was rangebound with weakness seen in tech, financial and airlines stocks as the latter got a double whammy from flight disruptions and higher fuel costs, while energy stocks benefitted from the surge in oil due to the Iran conflict.
Nikkei 225 fell beneath the 58,000 level as exporters suffered from the worsening geopolitical climate and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which the IRGC shut.  Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with heavy losses in Hong Kong due to tech weakness, while the mainland shrugged off early jitters and climbed ahead of the annual 'two sessions' in Beijing, where top officials are set to unveil economic strategies.

Top Asian News

• China overhauled a key micro credit program in which the focus is shifting to longer-term income support for rural households from a prior focus on poverty alleviation.
• Macau gaming revenue in February rose 4.5% Y/Y to MOP 20.6bln (exp. 1% growth).
• DeepSeek is to release the long-awaited DeepSeek 4 model in the week ahead.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -1.3%) are entirely in the red due to instability in the Middle East. In brief, the US-Israeli war with Iran has entered its third day, with all sides conducting large-scale airstrikes. Airspaces have been closed, oil refineries and tankers have been hit, and threats of further attacks continue (see "Iran Situation Report - Day 3" on the headline feed for more detailed analysis). The FTSE 100 (-1.0%) is being supported, albeit posting slight losses, helped by the major oil names (BP +1.8%, Shell +2.2%) as oil prices rise. The banking-heavy IBEX 35 (-2.2%) and FTSE MIB (-1.7%) have been hit the hardest on the prospect of increased war-risk claims.
From a sectoral perspective, Energy leads the pile, given the strength in underlying oil prices; Defence names are also stronger across the board, given the increased tensions; Rheinmetall +1.3%, BAE +5.2%, Leonardo +4.7%. One other key space of the market that has benefited is shipping names such as Maersk (+4.5%), Kuehne+Nagel (+0.4%), due to higher freight rates. US equity futures (ES -1.0%, NQ -1.4%, RTY -1.4%) have followed the global risk tone; in recent trade, contracts are attempting to rebound off worst levels, though remain significantly in the red. ASML (ASML NA) is planning to expand into advanced packaging for AI chips, and is exploring larger chip sizes and scanner systems

Top European News

• Top academics warned that planned cuts to physics and astronomy funding risk undermining a key government strategy to harness innovation to boost economic growth, according to FT.

FX

• DXY gains but trades off best levels as participants flock to the USD in light of the weekend geopolitics, with the initial US-Israel strike on Iran expanding throughout the Gulf and Middle East. Analysts at ING highlight three main channels that keep the USD in demand: 1) the US is less dependent on imported energy vs Europe and most of Asia. Higher energy hurts importers (EUR, JPY), whilst European Nat Gas opened up around 25%. 2) Markets are scaling back expectations for rate cuts from the Fed, with higher energy also proving headwinds for disinflation. A “bearish flattening” in the US yield curve (short-end yields rising) supports the dollar. 3) Higher energy and reduced Fed easing expectations could reverse capital flows into EM, which would further support the USD. DXY is around the middle of a 97.768-98.566 range after hitting highs around an hour after the European cash open.
• GBP is the worst performer amid the RAF base in Cyprus being struck by an Iranian drone. The UK has confirmed it is not participating in offensive operations but is permitting defensive use of bases. GBP/USD slipped from a 1.3456 peak to a 1.3314 trough.
• EUR has been hit by the aforementioned surge in energy prices, with EUR/USD slumping from near 1.1800 to lows of 1.1698 before trimming losses at the time of writing. ING suggests EUR/USD could slide back toward the 1.1575–1.1600 area if escalation continues.
• JPY and CHF are softer despite their haven appeals, with the USD sought after given its reduced dependency on energy imports. USD/JPY is +0.6% in a 156.04-157.25 range. USD/CHF trades +0.5% in a 0.7668-0.7742 parameter.
• Antipodeans also post losses amid their high-beta properties and sensitivity to risk. AUD/USD resides in a 0.7032-0.7117 range and NZD/USD in a 0.5928-0.5995 band.

Fixed Income

• USTs opened higher, then jumped to a session high of 114-12, before quickly paring much of the upside as the APAC session progressed. The narrative quickly shifted from “haven” related upside, to traders assessing and then pricing in the inflationary impacts of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This impacts both: a) energy prices, b) prices of goods which are subject to longer trading routes, as shipping giants avoid the chokepoint. From a central banking perspective, inflationary pressures could see policymakers shift hawkishly – though, Danske Bank suggested that the Fed is unlikely to trigger speculations of near-term policy shifts following the rise in energy prices. Geopols aside, the US ISM manufacturing survey for February is expected to be little changed at 52.3 (from 52.6). The Atlanta Fed will update its GDPnow tracking estimate, which is currently modelling growth of 3.0% in Q1. Later in the session, the Fed will publish its Senior Loan Officer Survey. USTs currently trade around 113-23 within a 113-22+ to 114-12 range.
• Bunds moving in-line with peers and currently trading around 130.05 to 130.53 range. Price action is similar to the above, initial haven flows buoyed German paper, before markets began factoring in inflationary impacts. Danske expect short-term widening Schatz spreads, but the bank highlights that safe-haven inflows are often short-lived and modest.
• Gilts are underperforming, and trades lower by around 30 ticks within a 93.31 to 93.57 range. Underperformance, which perhaps can be explained given that the region is a net-importer of oil, and as such has long been considered highly vulnerable to energy volatility. Elsewhere, ahead of this week’s UK Spring Statement, Chancellor Reeves has received a GBP 22bln windfall as tax receipts outperformed forecasts, according to Bloomberg; analysis of official data showed stronger than expected self-assessed income tax and sales levy revenues, alongside lower debt-interest spending, contributing to the improvement in the public finances.

Commodities

• Crude futures surged at the reopen in reaction to the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East owing to the strikes against Iran and the killing of its Supreme Leader, as well as its retaliation against the US and several neighbours in the Gulf, while it also announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. (Newsquawk analysis available on the feed). However, prices waned off their opening highs as Brent returned to beneath the USD 80/bbl and WTI briefly retreated to below 70/bbl levels before recovering, with Brent May'26 currently within USD 74.54-80.82/bbl (+6.2% at the time of writing) and WTI Apr'26 within USD 71.88-75.33/bbl (+7.3% at the time of writing).
• Spot gold rallied on a haven bid amid the weekend geopolitics (Newsquawk analysis available on the feed) but then mildly pulled back after stalling just shy of the USD 5,400/oz level in APAC trade, before mounting the level to a USD 5,419.15/oz peak. Spot silver hit a USD 92.42/oz peak from a USD 92.02/oz trough.
• Copper futures ultimately weakened overnight but trades flat in European hours, in choppy trade amid the mostly negative risk appetite in the region, with all focus on geopolitics. 3M LME copper resides in a narrow USD 13,249.60-13,444/t range at the time of writing.
• OPEC+ is to resume oil output increases, in which it will add 206k bpd in April. It had been previously reported over the weekend that OPEC+ could consider a larger production hike of as much as 441k bpd following the strike on Iran.
• IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to international navigation until further notice, while major tanker operators and global trading houses have halted crude, fuel and LNG shipments through the waterway. Furthermore, analysts warned of a potential Brent crude move above USD 100/bbl if the blockade persists.
• Oil facilities of regional countries are not Iran's targets, via Mehr.
• Chevron (CVX) said it was instructed by Israel's Ministry of Energy to temporarily shut-in production at the Leviathan gas production platform.
• Middle East crude benchmark Dubai's premium rises to around USD 5.90/bbl, the highest since 2022, sources say.
• IAEA Director General Grossi said we have no indication that any of Iran's nuclear installations have been damaged or hit. The situation is very concerning, cannot rule out a possible radiological release with serious consequences. No elevation of radiation levels above the usual background levels have been detected so far in countries neighbouring Iran.
• Saudi Energy Ministry says limited fire at Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery, no impact on supplies.
• The limited fire at Ras Tanura refinery was due to shrapnel falling during an interception operation, Al Hadath reported.

Central Banks

• BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said to raise rates if economic outlook is met, adds the goal is to maintain price stability by avoiding excessive inflation and deflation, thereby supporting sustainable economic growth. said:Impact of rate hikes has been limited so far.
• SNB states that in view of the international situation, we are more prepared to intervene in the FX market.
• Swiss Sight Deposits (w/e Mar 1). Domestic Banks CHF 440.5bln (prev. 440.6bln), Total CHF 459.8bln (prev. 457.6bln).

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli military says it has begun additional strikes on Tehran.
• Qatar Defence Ministry says it intercepted two Iranian drones, which targeted energy facilties; one drone headed towards QatarEnergy's Raf Laffan facility
• "Israel army said there is no reason for Lebanon ground invasion for now", via Al Arabiya citing AFP.
• Israel's IDF said "We are discussing the option of carrying out a ground operation inside Lebanon", via Al Jazeera.
• Iran's ambassador to the IAEA said Israel and the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday.
• Iran's Larijani said they will not negotiate with the US.
• Iran's Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Larijani said US President Trump has brought chaos to the region with "false whims" and is now worried of more casualties among US forces. Trump is sacrificing American soldiers for Israel's quest for power.
• Iran warns that those responsible for killing Supreme Leader Khamenei will face consequences.
• US President Trump said he could lift sanctions on Iran if its next leader proves pragmatic, according to New York Times. said:He had three very good choices for next Iran leader.
• US President Trump said the people he considered for Iran's next leader died in the air attacks, according to ABC News.
• US President Trump said Iran does not want to go quite far enough and it's too bad and are not happy with Iran negotiation.
• US Secretary of State Rubio designating Iran as state sponsor of wrongful detention; Iran must stop taking hostages; will consider other measures if Iran does not stop.
• US State Department said no American should travel to Iran for any reason and reiterate their call for Americans who are currently in Iran to leave immediately.
• Hezbollah reportedly fires rockets towards Northern Israel for the first time since the ceasefire agreement, according to Israel Broadcasting Corporation.
• Omani Foreign Minister said "The single most important achievement, I believe, is the agreement that Iran will never, ever have a nuclear material that will create a bomb...", according to CBS interviewing Albusaidi. "

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukraine President Zelensky says long war in Iran may impact air defence for Ukraine.
• Russia is said to consider a halt in peace talks unless Ukraine cedes land. Talks planned for the week ahead will be decisive on whether or not the sides can agree on terms to end the war, while Russia will likely walk away if Ukrainian President Zelensky fails to make the concession.
• A fuel terminal in Russia's Novorossiysk is on fire, according to local authorities.

US Event Calendar

• 9:45 am: United States Feb F S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 51.35, prior 51.2
• 10:00 am: United States Feb ISM Manufacturing, est. 51.5, prior 52.6
• 10:00 am: United States Feb ISM Prices Paid, est. 60, prior 59

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Those who read my EMR on Friday will appreciate that frantic emails around a major international conflict were an interesting additional challenge to try to squeeze into a packed weekend of “daddy childcare”. By now, there is little point in recapping much of the news around the strikes on Iran, so instead we’ll jump straight into the latest market reaction.

As regular readers will know from the work we have shared from DB's Binky Chadha, the negative market impact of notable geopolitical events is usually measured in only days and weeks, and you could argue that the market has increasingly realised this and now reacts less to big geopolitical events than it may have done a few years ago. However, one persistent risk is always a prolonged impact on the oil price. As such, that is the main market to watch today and for the duration of this episode. How firmly, or officially closed, the Strait of Hormuz remains will probably play a big part in this. 

So far, Brent is about +7% higher at $77.60/bbl as I type this morning, having briefly been as high as $82 as trading in Asia opened. The spike comes as tanker traffic via the Strait of Hormuz has largely stopped with Iran having attacked three oil tankers over the weekend, though Iran’s foreign minister said on Sunday that Iran was not seeking to close the strait. There is a view that ahead of the mid-terms, the US administration will do what they can to ensure Iran struggles to block the Strait for long. Investors will also be watching the extent of damage to Iran’s oil export facilities. 

Meanwhile, OPEC+ yesterday announced a supply increase of 206k barrels a day in April, following an increase of 137k a day in December. This is a decent rise, but it would not change the bigger picture if there were a sizeable disruption to oil flows.

With most markets closed over the weekend, Bitcoin served as a barometer of sentiment and immediately dropped around -4% when news of the attacks broke early London time on Saturday morning. From these lows, it rebounded around 7% through Saturday and into Sunday as mounting speculation that Supreme Leader Khamenei had been killed was confirmed. This raised hopes of a decisive operation with an obvious ending. As things stand, Bitcoin is about -2% down off these highs, but still +2% above where we were just before the strikes.

Market sentiment bounced shortly after the Asia open amid some more encouraging reporting. According to the New York Times, Trump said that he was open to lifting sanctions on Iran if its new leadership was pragmatic though he also said that the US could keep up its campaign against Iran for “four to five weeks”. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council who’s seen as leading Iran’s current effort, made a fresh push to resume nuclear talks with Washington via Omani mediators. However Larijani has poured some cold water on this on X, stating that “We will not negotiate with the United States.” This has taken oil off its lows for the session.

With the US unlikely to put boots on the ground, it’s not clear if full regime change is achievable and its outcome would be highly unpredictable, which naturally leaves questions of whether a negotiated resolution can still be found. At the same time, we’ve seen a widening of the conflict to Lebanon overnight, with Israel striking targets in the country after Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel.

So that all leaves global markets with a clear but not extreme risk-off reaction this morning. S&P 500 futures are down -0.81% from Friday’s close, with those on the STOXX 50 down a larger -1.47%. Note that Europe is more negatively exposed to higher energy prices, including also possible disruptions to LNG shipments from the Gulf. Meanwhile, in Asia, the Hang Seng (-1.59%) and the Nikkei (-1.51%) are among the worst performers, also affected by declines in technology stocks. The Shanghai Comp has turned positive (+0.33%). In FX, the dollar index is +0.29% higher, while the Swiss Franc is the best performing G10 currency amid the safe-haven demand. And gold is +1.41% higher. For Treasuries, yields initially opened a touch lower amid the safe-haven bid but this has quickly reversed this morning with the 10yr +2.8bps higher at 3.97%, after ending last week at post-2024 lows. So overall fairly measured response in Asia to the weekend events. 

Outside the obvious and huge attention on the Middle East, the key focus this week will be on the US jobs report on Friday, retail sales on the same day, the ISM indices (today and Wednesday), and the Fed’s Beige Book, also due on Wednesday. European releases will include inflation data tomorrow and the ECB’s accounts of their February meeting on Thursday. Various global PMIs are also out this week.
In politics, highlights include the Two Sessions in China as well as the Spring Statement in the UK. Earnings reports will be due from Costco and Broadcom.

Delving deeper into the US data, the most important release in the week ahead is Friday’s February employment report. Our economists forecast headline payroll growth of 30k, down from 130k previously, with private payrolls rising by 50k after January’s unusually strong 172k gain. The moderation largely reflects payback from outsized hiring last month in private education and health services and construction, where job gains more than doubled their six month averages. Elsewhere in the establishment survey, our economists expect average hourly earnings to rise 0.4% month over month, unchanged from January, while the average workweek remains steady at 34.3 hours.

The household survey adds an additional layer of uncertainty this month, as the BLS implements its delayed annual population controls. Our economists forecast the unemployment rate at 4.3%, though risks around this estimate are elevated in both directions. January data will also be revised using the new controls, and attention will be focused on whether these adjustments meaningfully alter unemployment rates across demographic groups, particularly among younger cohorts, where concerns around entry level hiring remain heightened.
Friday also brings January retail sales, where weather related weakness in auto sales is likely to weigh on the headline figure. Our economists expect headline sales to decline 0.6%, with sales excluding autos down 0.1%, partly reflecting lower gasoline prices. That said, retail control sales are forecast to rebound by 0.3%, pointing to a firmer underlying pace of goods consumption. Tax refunds should provide additional support to spending in coming months, with the average refund running meaningfully higher than a year ago.

Ahead of Friday, several other releases will help set the tone. Our economists expect today’s manufacturing ISM to edge up to 53.1 from 52.6. Wednesday brings the ADP employment report, forecast at 50k (though seasonals might push it higher), alongside the non manufacturing ISM, seen at 54.0.

Other notable data include February unit motor vehicle sales tomorrow, which our economists expect at 15.1 million, potentially restrained again by adverse weather. Thursday’s preliminary Q4 productivity and unit labour cost figures are forecast at 1.3% and 2.2%, respectively.
Moving to Europe, the focus will continue to be on inflation, with February prints due for the Eurozone and Italy tomorrow, Switzerland on Wednesday, and Sweden on Thursday. ECB speakers will include President Lagarde today, and the central bank will release the accounts of its February meeting on Thursday.

In the UK, attention will be on the Spring Statement delivered by the Chancellor tomorrow, and our UK economist previews it here. There will also be the February DMP survey from the BoE on Thursday.

Over in Asia, the spotlight will be on China’s annual Two Sessions starting Wednesday (running through March 11), followed by the National People’s Congress session opening on Thursday, with the 15th Five Year Plan expected. Elsewhere, data highlights will include the February PMIs, both the official and private gauges, in China on Wednesday.

In Japan, our Chief Japan economist highlights the Shunto wage demands due on Thursday as the most anticipated event next week and expects wage demands this year to come in at 6.0%. There will also be the Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations (MoF survey) for Q4 on Tuesday, as well as the February consumer sentiment index on Wednesday. For more detail and forecasts, see our Chief Japan economist’s week ahead for the country here.

Earnings will include tech firms Broadcom, CrowdStrike and Marvell. US consumer firms will continue to be in focus, with reports from Costco and Target.

Looking back at last week, which now feels like a long time ago, the main theme was the ongoing AI disruption narrative, which continued to affect a range of assets. In part, this reflected the now infamous memo from Citrini Research, which outlined a hypothetical scenario in which AI adoption drove the US unemployment rate into double digits by mid 2028. We also had Nvidia’s earnings, which once again failed to deliver the kind of positive surprise markets had grown used to in 2023–24, even as they beat analysts’ estimates. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 fell -0.44% (-0.43% on Friday), with the Magnificent 7 down -1.80% (-1.41% on Friday). The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell -1.96% (-1.21% on Friday), ending a run of 10 consecutive weekly gains.

Performance outside the US was notably stronger. The STOXX 600 posted a fifth consecutive weekly gain of +0.52% (+0.11% on Friday), closing at a record high. In Japan, the Nikkei rose +3.56% (+0.16% on Friday) to also hit a new record, taking its year to date gains to +16.91%.

The biggest news on Friday was rising concern about a possible US strike against Iran, which added further upward pressure on oil prices. Brent crude ended the week up +1.00% (+2.45% on Friday) at a seven month high of $72.48/bbl. It was also another strong week for precious metals, with gold prices up +3.36% (+1.81%) in their fourth consecutive weekly gain, and both are obviously seeing significant action again this morning.

Finally, in fixed income, sovereign bonds benefited from the broader caution. Ten year Treasury yields fell -14.4bps last week (-6.4bps on Friday) to 3.94%, their lowest level since October 2024. In Europe there were similar moves, with 10 year Bund yields down -9.4bps last week (-4.7bps on Friday) to 2.64%, marking their biggest weekly decline since April last year around the Liberation Day turmoil. Credit spreads widened on both sides of the Atlantic, with US high yield up +21bps (+9bps on Friday) and US investment grade up +7bps (+2bps on Friday), their biggest weekly widening since the Liberation Day tariffs. In Europe, high yield widened +13bps (+5bps on Friday), while investment grade widened +5bps (+3bps on Friday).

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 08:39

Trust In The US Government Has Plunged From 77% To 17%

Over the past seven decades, Americans’ trust in the federal government has dropped from postwar highs to historic lows.

In 1964, 77% said they trusted Washington to do what is right most of the time.

As of September 2025, that figure stands at just 17%.

The chart below, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, tracks this long-term shift, using data from Pew Research Center.

While trust has occasionally surged during moments of national crisis, the broader trajectory shows a steady erosion across generations.

From Postwar Highs to Vietnam-Era Decline

Trust peaked in 1964, when 77% of Americans said they trusted the federal government most of the time. Even in 1958, nearly three-quarters of the public expressed confidence in the federal government.

That began to change in the late 1960s and early 1970s. By 1970, trust had fallen to 54%, and it slipped further to 36% by 1974 in the aftermath of Watergate.

The Vietnam War, political scandals, and economic turbulence reshaped public opinion for decades to come.

Date Trust the government (%) 9/28/2025 17 2/9/2025 19 5/19/2024 18 6/11/2023 19 05/01/2022 20 4/11/2021 21 8/2/2020 24 4/12/2020 21 3/25/2019 17 12/04/2017 18 4/11/2017 19 10/04/2015 18 7/20/2014 19 2/26/2014 18 11/15/2013 20 10/13/2013 19 5/31/2013 20 02/06/2013 22 1/13/2013 23 10/31/2012 19 10/19/2011 17 10/04/2011 15 9/23/2011 18 8/21/2011 21 2/28/2011 23 10/21/2010 23 10/01/2010 21 09/06/2010 23 09/01/2010 23 04/05/2010 23 04/05/2010 22 3/21/2010 24 2/12/2010 22 02/05/2010 21 1/10/2010 20 12/20/2009 21 8/31/2009 22 6/12/2009 23 12/21/2008 25 10/15/2008 24 10/13/2008 24 07/09/2007 24 01/09/2007 28 10/08/2006 29 9/15/2006 30 02/05/2006 31 1/20/2006 33 01/06/2006 32 12/02/2005 32 9/11/2005 31 09/09/2005 30 6/19/2005 35 10/15/2004 39 7/15/2004 41 3/21/2004 38 10/26/2003 36 7/27/2003 43 10/15/2002 46 09/04/2002 46 09/02/2002 40 7/13/2002 40 6/17/2002 43 1/24/2002 46 12/07/2001 49 10/25/2001 54 10/06/2001 49 1/17/2001 44 10/31/2000 38 10/15/2000 42 07/09/2000 39 04/02/2000 38 2/14/2000 34 10/03/1999 36 9/14/1999 33 5/16/1999 33 2/21/1999 31 2/12/1999 32 02/04/1999 34 1/10/1999 34 01/03/1999 37 12/01/1998 33 11/15/1998 30 11/01/1998 26 10/26/1998 28 8/10/1998 31 2/22/1998 35 02/01/1998 33 1/25/1998 32 1/19/1998 32 10/31/1997 31 8/27/1997 31 06/01/1997 26 1/14/1997 27 11/02/1996 27 10/15/1996 28 5/12/1996 31 05/06/1996 29 11/19/1995 27 08/07/1995 22 08/05/1995 21 3/19/1995 20 2/22/1995 21 12/01/1994 21 10/29/1994 22 10/23/1994 20 06/06/1994 19 1/30/1994 20 1/20/1994 22 3/24/1993 25 1/17/1993 25 1/14/1993 25 10/23/1992 25 10/15/1992 25 06/08/1992 29 10/20/1991 35 03/06/1991 42 03/01/1991 46 1/27/1991 40 12/01/1990 33 10/28/1990 32 09/06/1990 35 1/16/1990 38 6/29/1989 39 1/15/1989 41 11/10/1988 43 10/15/1988 41 1/23/1988 40 10/18/1987 43 06/01/1987 43 03/01/1987 44 1/21/1987 43 1/19/1987 42 12/01/1986 44 11/30/1986 43 09/09/1986 44 1/19/1986 44 11/06/1985 43 7/29/1985 42 3/21/1985 40 2/27/1985 42 2/22/1985 45 11/14/1984 44 10/15/1984 41 12/01/1982 39 11/07/1980 32 10/15/1980 30 3/12/1980 27 11/03/1979 28 12/01/1978 31 10/23/1977 32 4/25/1977 34 10/15/1976 36 09/05/1976 35 6/15/1976 35 03/01/1976 34 02/08/1976 35 12/01/1974 36 10/15/1972 53 12/01/1970 54 10/15/1968 62 12/01/1966 65 10/15/1964 77 12/01/1958 73 Temporary Surges During National Crises

Although the long-term trend is downward, trust has occasionally rebounded during moments of national unity. After the 9/11 attacks, trust jumped from 44% to 54% in a matter of months. It was one of the last times a majority expressed confidence in Washington.

Similar, though smaller, increases occurred during other crises. In early 2020, trust briefly rose to 24% amid the COVID-19 outbreak. However, these bumps have proven short-lived, with trust quickly returning to lower levels.

A New Era of Persistent Low Trust

Since the mid-2000s, trust in government has rarely crossed the 30% mark. In the 2010s and early 2020s, it often dipped below 20%.

As of September 2025, just 17% of Americans say they trust the federal government most of the time — near the lowest level recorded in Pew’s time series.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out America’s Growing Mountain of Debt on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 07:20

Poland Plans Social Media Ban For Under-15s

Three months after Australia banned minors under the age of 16 from accessing social media, Poland is preparing to do the same thing.

A 14-year-old boy poses at his home near Gosford as he looks at social media on his mobile phone in New South Wales, Australia, on Oct. 24, 2025. David Gray/AFP via Getty Images

A bill is currently being prepared by the largest party in Poland's ruling Civic Coalition Party that would prohibit children under the age of 15 from using social media platforms, and would require tech companies to verify users' ages. 

Education Minister Barbara Nowacka laid out the plan on Friday, which include fines of up to 6% of the worldwide (global) revenue of social media companies if their services remain accessible to under-15s. 

"We need to limit access to social media for children under 15. At the same time, we need to work on mental health and raise awareness among children, parents, and the entire Polish society about the dangers of social media," Nowacka said. 

If sped through legislation, Poland's bill could take effect as early as 2027, however the coalition hasn't fully signed off yet, and it will undoubtedly face legal pushback from US tech giants. 

As the Epoch Times notes further, on Dec. 10, Australia became the first country to impose nationwide restrictions on minors accessing social media, banning those under 16 from a dozen platforms.

The restrictions were brought in amid concerns over mental health, online harms, and screen addiction affecting Australian children.

Poland is the latest country in the European Union to say it was planning to introduce a ban or some other form of restriction, with other member states similarly citing concerns over children’s mental health.

In France, legislation is moving through parliament to ban children younger than age 15 from accessing social media platforms. Denmark and Slovenia are likewise looking at bans for under-15s.

Spain will follow Australia in banning social media for minors under age 16.

Portugal is taking a different approach. Rather than introducing an outright ban on children under a certain age from accessing social media, it aims to require explicit parental consent for children aged 13 to 16 to access the platforms.

Other countries around the world are making similar plans, including Malaysia, which says it will ban social media accounts for children younger than age 16 this year.

‘Age-Gating’ Social Media

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a series of new proposals earlier this month aimed at protecting young people from social media addiction, including a proposed ban for under-16s, subject to a public consultation.

Some measures by the UK and the EU to curb online harms have led to tensions with the United States, home of many big tech companies, around issues of free speech and regulatory overreach.

Privacy and free speech advocates, such as UK-based Open Rights Group, say that a social media ban for under-16s would be an ineffective response to online harms.

The Open Rights Group says it would lead to “age-gating” across all social media platforms, requiring users to prove their age.

“Protecting children online should not mean building a surveillance infrastructure for everyone,” Open Rights Group spokesman James Baker said.

“We need regulation that puts users back in control, not policies that force people to trade their privacy and voice for access to modern life.”

Rachel Roberts and Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 04:15

Gulf States Say They've Shot Down More Than 1,500 Iranian Missiles, Drones

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Five Persian Gulf nations that host U.S. military installations claim they have collectively shot down more than 1,500 Iranian missiles and drones since the United States and Israel launched their joint attack at 9:45 a.m. Tehran time on Feb. 28.

A plume of smoke rises from a reported Iranian strike in the industrial district of Doha on March 1, 2026. Mahmud Hams/AFP via Getty Images

The United Arab Emirates (UAE)—whose forces have battled Tehran-backed Houthis in Yemen—has borne the brunt of the Iranian attacks.

While numbers are fluid and reported timelines varied, as of 6 p.m. ET on March 1—2:30 a.m. March 2 in Iran—the UAE Ministry of Defense reported it had knocked down 165 ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles, and more than 540 drones.

Debris from destroyed projectiles crashed into several Abu Dhabi residential neighborhoods, killing at least one civilian, the ministry reported, also stating that at least three people have been killed in Iranian strikes in UAE.

The attacks are “a blatant violation of national sovereignty and international law,” the ministry said in a statement, warning UAE would “take all necessary measures to protect its territory, citizens and residents, and to safeguard its sovereignty, security and stability.”

Bahrain’s military said March 1 that its air defense systems had intercepted at least 45 missiles and nine drones, with the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama and a British navy base specifically targeted.

No casualties were reported at the U.S. and UK bases. British forces reported shooting down a drone in Manama. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on March 1 said the British have accepted a U.S, request to use its bases across the Middle East, including its large air base in Cyprus, to strike Iranian missile launchers.

Kuwait’s military reported it shot down nearly 100 missiles and almost 300 drones during the first 24 to 36 hours of the conflict.

The Iranian attacks focused on Ali Al-Salem Air Base where American and other international forces are stationed. Drones also struck Kuwait International Airport on Feb. 28, causing minor injuries and “limited damage.”

Italian Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani, however, told Italian news outlet ANSA that a Kuwait International Airport runway sustained extensive damage.

Qatar’s Ministry of Defense said it shot down 65 ballistic missiles and at least 12 drones fired at it from Iran. “We possess the full ability to protect the country and fend off any external threat,” the Qatari ministry said, adding Qatar is “secure and stable,” although the country’s air space has been temporary closed to commercial traffic.

Two ballistic missiles struck the U.S. Al-Udeid Air Base causing no reported casualties and little damage, while a drone strike disabled an early warning radar installation.

Most U.S. Air Force airmen and aircraft normally stationed at Al-Udeid, including KC-135s in-flight refueling jets, C-17A Globemaster transports, and C-130 Hercules airlift transports, were moved to other bases in the Mediterranean and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean in the days preceding the attack.

Jordan’s armed forces reported March 1 that they had intercepted 13 ballistic missiles and knocked down nearly 50 drones targeting U.S. forces at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base.

“The armed forces engaged 49 drones and ballistic missiles targeting Jordanian territory today,” the Jordanian armed forces said in a statement, adding “13 ballistic missiles were successfully intercepted by Jordanian air defense systems, while drones were shot down.”

An undetermined number of missile and drone attacks have also been reported in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Syria.

U.S. forces at Harir Air Base in Erbil in northern Iraq’s Kurdistan area were attacked with missiles and drones with no casualties and little damage reported. British forces report they knocked down several missiles in Iraq.

ZeroPointNow Mon, 03/02/2026 - 03:30

UK, France, Germany Slam Iran For 'Reckless' Retaliation - Are Ready To Assist Israel And US

Leaders from Germany, the UK and France are waving their fists over Iran's "reckless" retaliatory strikes in the region, and say they're ready to throw down to stop Tehran from further responses. 

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer makes a statement from Downing Street in central London on Feb. 28, 2026, following the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Jonathan Brady/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

On Sunday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and French President Emmanuel Macron stood in solidarity, saying in a joint statement that they were "appalled" by Iran's "reckless" retaliatory strikes that targeted not only US and Israeli military sites in the region - but other allies as well (Dubai got the business, among others). 

"We will take steps to defend our interests and those of our allies in the region, potentially through enabling necessary and proportionate defensive action to destroy Iran’s capability to fire missiles and drones at their source," the statement reads. "We have agreed to work together with the US and allies in the region on this matter." 

British forces have already engaged - with a Typhoon fighter jet shooting down an Iranian drone with an air-to-air missile during a defensive air patrol in Qatar. 

As the Epoch Times notes further, Starmer addressed his nation on the matter later on March 1, revealing that he also granted a request from the United States to use UK bases in the region to attack Iranian missile sites. But he affirmed that this did not mean that he was tasking British armed forces to join the United States in offensive action.

“Iran has launched sustained attacks across the region, at countries who did not attack them,” Starmer said. ”They’ve hit airports and hotels where British citizens are staying. This is clearly a dangerous situation.”

The prime minister noted that at least 200,000 British citizens were in the Middle East, including residents, families on vacation, and others in transit.

He defended his government’s decision to allow the United States to use British bases to attack Iranian missile launchers and storage depots, calling it a “defensive” action and saying the only way the threat will be stopped is by destroying the missiles at their source.

“Iran is pursuing a scorched earth strategy, so we are supporting the collective self-defense of our allies and our people in the region, because that is our duty to the British people,” Starmer said.

Meanwhile, Merz announced on X that he would meet with U.S. President Donald Trump on March 3 to discuss the latest developments, noting that he remained in close contact with other European powers, Israel, and the affected region.

“Now is not the time for finger-pointing, but for unity and joint action,” he said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 02:45

When The Return Flight Is The Only Goal: Merz Ends China Trip

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

It took some time for the supposed difference between Annalena Baerbock’s feminist foreign policy and the approach that the diplomatic corps under Chancellor Friedrich Merz would take to become clear. What has changed is less the substance than the performative act. Under the Sauerland-born Merz, tone and gestures shifted—the staging is meant to appear more masculine, sober in style, perhaps more professional, less embarrassingly activist—but the content remains largely unchanged.

Ironically, arch-enemy Donald Trump became the spiritus rector of a new theatrical element in the Chancellor’s media showcase. In Trump-style, Friedrich Merz announced on February 25 the climax of his China trip: the conclusion of a major order for the European aerospace giant Airbus. China will acquire 120 aircraft, models A320, A350—details to follow later—ordered from the company that has become the most successful “success child” of the European project.

The Chinese hosts are politely attentive: they don’t let the Chancellor return home empty-handed and grant him quick fame in the 2026 super-election year. Images, headlines, pathos—the stage is set. The Chancellor as doer, as promoter of German and European interests, as a foreign-policy acquirer in global competition—a German Donald Trump?

A sober look at the numbers puts the theatrics in perspective. Year after year, Chinese customers fill Airbus’s order books with hundreds of aircraft. Major orders from China are no exception; they are part of a long-established procurement rhythm. Demand is structural, not spontaneous—the production slots had long been planned and coincided with the Chancellor’s trip by chance.

A media storm in Trump-style, with the small but crucial difference that the U.S. president returns from foreign trips with real investments in his industry’s production capacity. Factories are built, sites expanded, capital flows measurably into American value creation. Whatever the magic formula—tariffs, deregulated economy, robust growth—America attracts real investments, binding capital and industrial substance domestically.

Friedrich Merz, by contrast, presents routine industrial orders as personal triumphs. He frames scheduled large orders as the result of his diplomatic prowess—a German deal-maker in action. But the crucial difference is that for career politician Merz, only media impact counts. One brings production capacity home; the other brings press releases.

Let’s credit Merz: his trip falls during a critical election phase. In such moments, images, gestures, and quickly digestible wins matter. Fleeting triumphs feed the narrative of the doer in the chancellery, regardless of catastrophic domestic performance.

It is also reassuring that Germany continues to receive the highest protocol honors in China and that Beijing evidently values German history more than the sad present. Reception in the Great Hall of the People by Premier Li Qiang, a personal audience with President Xi Jinping, evening dinner, military welcome at the airport. The choreography is flawless: flags, honor guards, carefully staged images. Protocol-wise, Germany still plays in the Champions League.

Geopolitically, however, the picture is different. Merz called China a “strategic partner” before the trip without defining what this means in the current world situation. Beijing firmly backs Moscow in the Ukraine war. How does the Chancellor think the EU’s 20 sanction packages against Russia affect relations with Beijing? Every new measure against Russia is not just a signal to the Kremlin but also a geopolitical marker toward China.

Merz could personally observe China’s perspective on Germany and the EU’s growing isolation in geopolitics. Protocol pomp does not reverse strategic erosion. From Beijing’s perspective, the question is simple: what offer should one make to a delegation from a country that has weakened its industrial base through self-inflicted dismantling while simultaneously complaining about trade disadvantages?

The consequences of European eco-socialism are immense. Germany has become a net importer of capital in trade with China. The trade balance increasingly tilts against it. In key industrial sectors, competitive advantages have eroded; energy-intensive value creation is under pressure.

Against this backdrop, sympathy for the Chancellor and his economic representatives is limited. The misery is homegrown. Every new regulation, levy, or transformation mandate tightens industry further, reducing Germany’s flexibility in global competition.

In China—a political dictatorship under a single party but economically largely guided by market efficiency—German-European moralizing meets maximum incomprehension. There, scale effects, productivity, market share, and technological sovereignty matter. Moral self-assurance does not replace industrial strength.

Merz lamented unfair Chinese trade practices given Germany’s deep trade deficit. Market access must be fair, disadvantages avoided. The words sound determined, aimed at reciprocity in global trade. And they sound naive.

Because isn’t it worth asking whether Europeans have long been world champions of hidden protectionism? Whether German and European policies repeatedly sparked the grotesque race toward emission-free economies via maximal repression? Regulatory hurdles, taxonomies, supply-chain laws, CO₂ border adjustments—all form a dense mesh of indirect market barriers.

It is by no means China’s fault that Germany’s economic propulsion—industry, engineering, machinery, automotive—has, under EU regulations and energy-transition fanaticism, disassembled at accelerated speed. Those who systematically eliminate their own cost advantages lose ground globally and geopolitically.

Merz exemplifies a European political class eager to blame external actors for structural weaknesses. He is living proof that Europe and Germany have a long way to go before a brutally honest assessment of problems.

Flattering China and the apparent alignment on population surveillance and censorship expansion makes Europe, at best, an unloved vassal of Beijing.

Europe, as a cultural entity, should seek salvation in alignment with Americans. In the bastion of free markets, deregulation, and rational energy policy—in the land of ICE and Christian-humanist cohesion—lies the most likely, only acceptable future for European policy.

China sees Europe as a dumping ground for surplus production—Europe as a decaying heir of the colonial era. European markets absorb domestic overcapacity. Structural dependency on resources like rare earths and energy grows. The leverage is not in Europe.

The era of European dominance is over. Moral self-assertion against factual dependence? Helpless. Puerile. Expensively paid.

Friedrich Merz’s visit to China was a campaign appearance for the CDU. He followed diplomatic protocols but was substantively unremarkable. The images were staged; strategic impact remains limited. Europe deserves better policy.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 02:00

Is The US Military Campaign Against Iran Part Of Trump's Grand Strategy Against China?

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The goal is to obtain proxy control over Iran’s enormous oil and gas reserves so that they can be weaponized as leverage against China for coercing it into a lopsided trade deal that would derail its superpower rise and therefore restore US-led unipolarity.

Trump claimed that the US’ military campaign against Iran is to “defend the American people”, while many critics have alleged (whether in jest or not) that it’s to distract from the Epstein Files, but few observers realize that it’s actually all about China. It was explained here that Trump 2.0 “decided to gradually deprive China of access to markets and resources, ideally through a series of trade deals, in order to imbue the US with the indirect leverage required to peacefully derail China’s superpower rise.”

To elaborate, “The US’ trade deals with the EU and India could ultimately result in them curtailing China’s access to their markets under pain of punitive tariffs if they refuse. In parallel, the US’ special operation in Venezuela, pressure on Iran, and simultaneous attempts to subordinate Nigeria and other leading energy producers could curtail China’s access to the resources required for fueling its superpower rise.”

The resource dimension that’s relevant to Iran is a major part of the US’ “Strategy of Denial”.

That’s the brainchild of Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby, and it was expanded on in this analysis here from early January.

As was written, “US influence over Venezuela’s and possibly soon Iran’s and Nigeria’s energy exports and trade ties with China could be weaponized via threats of curtailment or cut-offs in parallel with pressure upon its Gulf allies to do the same in pursuit of this goal”, which is to coerce China into indefinite junior partnership status vis-à-vis the US through a lopsided trade deal.

Most observers missed it, but the new National Security Strategy calls for ultimately “rebalance[ing] China’s economy toward household consumption”. This is a euphemism for radically re-engineering the global economy through the previously described means, namely curtailing China’s access to the markets and resources responsible for its superpower rise, so that it no longer remains “the world’s factory” and thus ends its era of being the US’ only systemic rival. US-led unipolarity would then be restored.

Circling back to Iran, “[it] represented about 13.4% of the total 10.27 MMbpd of oil [that China] imported by sea” last year per Kpler, hence why the US wants to control, curtail, or outright cut off this flow. ‘Plan A’ was to achieve this through diplomatic means for replicating the Venezuelan model that entered into effect after Maduro’s capture. Iran flirted with this but didn’t commit since it would entail the country’s strategic surrender, ergo why Trump authorized military action for achieving this instead.

In pursuit of this, Trump promised the IRGC in his video announcing his country’s military campaign against Iran that they’d have immunity if they laid down their arms. This reinforces the abovementioned claim that the US wants to replicate the Venezuelan model since it strongly suggests that he envisages newly US-aligned IRGC running Iran in the political interim before new elections just like the newly US-aligned Venezuelan security services run their own country during their own current political interim.

Such a scenario would avert Iran’s possible “Balkanization”, thus preserving the state so that it can then resume its prior role as one of the US’ top regional allies, which might then aid the Azeri-Turkish Axis’ efforts to project Western influence along Russia’s entire southern periphery. In that event, the US would simultaneously obtain unparalleled resource leverage over China via proxy control of Iran’s oil and gas industries while tightening its encirclement of Russia, which would deal a powerful blow to multipolarity.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/01/2026 - 23:40