How Relaxed COVID-Era Rules Fueled Minnesota's Biggest Scam

Authored by Kristin Robbins via RealClearPolitics,

In my testimony before the Senate last week as chair of the Minnesota House Fraud Prevention and Oversight Committee, I outlined the genesis of Minnesota’s massive fraud scandal, how it expanded under relaxed COVID-era rules, and what steps the federal government can take to help stop the theft of federal tax dollars throughout the country.  

Minnesota’s fraud crisis didn’t happen overnight; it took years. But it exploded when COVID hit, right when oversight was thrown out the window.

How did Minnesota get so bad? In March 2020, Democrat Rep. Ilhan Omar authored a bill called the MEALS Act, which eventually became part of a larger COVID relief package. That law allowed states to waive the normal eligibility requirements for the National School Lunch Program. It eliminated income requirements and site inspections and expanded distribution methods. This opened the door for Feeding Our Future, which became the largest COVID fraud scandal in state and national history, stealing at least $250 million from taxpayers. To date, there have been 78 indictments and 61 convictions, with more cases headed to trial this spring.

This was organized, deliberate theft, enabled by weak controls, refusal to take multiple reports of fraud from whistleblowers and the legislative auditor seriously, and a government culture that refused to treat fraud like a crime.

The Feeding Our Future case revealed something even more disturbing: As many as half of the defendants were also receiving state money through other Medicaid-funded programs. But even after that became public back in 2023, Tim Walz and his agencies did nothing to stop those defendants from receiving additional state dollars.

Billions of federal COVID dollars didn’t start the staggering fraud in Minnesota, but that did supercharge a system that had already been compromised.

The original fraud scandal was tied to the Child Care Assistance Program, a federal program meant to help low-income families with children. There had been allegations of fraud reported with CCAP since 2011. By 2014 and 2015, there were raids, charges, and convictions of child care providers for billing non-existent or absent children, often exceeding $1 million in fraud in a single case.

Then in March and April of 2019, just months into the Walz administration, the legislative auditor published two major reports outlining CCAP fraud. Those reports detailed fraudulent providers and alleged movement of millions of dollars in cash out of Minnesota to Somalia, including allegations that some of that money was funding terrorism.

Whistleblowers have told us that shortly after those reports were released, the Department of Human Services shut down the criminal investigation unit for child care fraud.

Rather than pursuing fraud as a crime, the Walz administration began renaming fraud as “overpayment.” Cases were routed to an internal “overpayment committee” to decide whether reimbursement should even be pursued. Staff were no longer allowed to speak with their counterparts at the Bureau of Criminal Apprehension without supervisor approval.

Our committee has now uncovered fraud in multiple Medicaid programs, including autism centers, sober homes, non-emergency medical transportation, integrated community supports, and housing stabilization services.

In December, we held a hearing on credible allegations of fraud in two additional areas: adult day services and assisted living facilities. We have now seen allegations of fraud in 14 Medicaid programs. It is staggering.

The former first U.S. attorney who led these prosecutions estimated fraud at $9 billion, and that doesn’t include fraud in SNAP or child care programs.

Minnesotans expect their tax dollars to go toward roads, schools, health care, and public safety, not to fund criminals purchasing resorts in Kenya and luxury homes and cars. Even more alarming are the allegations that Minnesota taxpayer dollars have made their way into the hands of terrorist organizations like Al-Shabaab, directly or indirectly. The money is literally flown out in suitcases from the Minneapolis-St. Paul Airport.

In 2017, estimates suggested $100 million in cash left annually. According to TSA, outbound cash was $342 million in 2024 and $350 million in 2025. That is astonishing. And it is wildly disproportionate compared to other airports. Minneapolis’ outbound cash is 99% higher than Dallas, Atlanta, LAX, and JFK, and 90% higher than Seattle.

So where do we go from here? 

Minnesotans are right to be outraged, and I hope other states learn from Minnesota’s failures.

We need a culture that treats fraud as a crime, not as “overpayment.”

We need to standardize and enforce basic internal controls. Both federal and state government need to require documentation, not attestation, to verify eligibility.

We need more audits and stronger oversight.

We need the federal government to enforce existing laws requiring states to pay back funds within one year when fraud or “overpayment” is found. We need more resources at the U.S. Attorney’s Office and CMS to investigate these cases. And we need stronger federal authority to track and investigate large sums of cash leaving our country.

We need leaders willing to stand up to this injustice and protect the most vulnerable.

Citizens in Minnesota and throughout the country deserve better. The time for accountability and justice is now.

Kristin Robbins has served in the Minnesota House of Representatives since 2019 and is chair of the Minnesota Fraud Committee.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 09:40

US Industrial Production Surged In January

Despite slumping sentiment surveys, 'hard' data continues to suggest the US economy is ticking along nicely with Industrial Production surging 0.7% MoM in January (better than the +0.4% MoM expected and well up from the downward revised +0.2% MoM in December).

This is the 3rd straight monthly increase in Industrial Production, lifting growth to 2.3% YoY - the best annual growth since Sept 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, US Manufacturing output rose 0.6% MoM (better than the +0.4% MoM expected and best monthly gain since Feb 2025)...

Source: Bloomberg

That is the fast annual growth in manufacturing since Feb 2022.

Capacity Utilization rose to 76.2% (below expectations),m extending the positive trend since the start of Trump's term...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, circling back to the 'soft' survey data we noted at the beginning, we note that ISM Manufacturing exploded higher in January (after decoupling from hard data all year)...

Does make you wonder whether any of these surveys are real? Or did the Democrats being interviewed finally throw in the towel on the doomsaying?

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 09:35

Amid Slumping Sales & Sentiment, Housing Starts & Permits Jumped In December

It would appear that homebuilders are desperately hoping for a 'Field of Dreams' year...

After seeing existing home sales collapse in January (not driven by the winter storms), US Housing Starts and Building Permits rose dramatically more than expected in December (+6.2% MoM vs +1.1% exp and +4.3% MoM vs +0.4% MoM exp respectively)...

Additionally, Housing Starts rose as Home Builders confidence crumbled (and Future Sales expectations dropped)...

The surprise monthly surge lifted the SAAR totals for both housing sector data points to multi-month highs...

Breaking down the headline data shows that multi-family building permits and housing starts soared (+18.1% MoM and +10.1% MoM respectively) while Single-Family Building Permits tumbled 1.7% MoM while single-family starts rose for the 3rd straight month...

However, the pace of construction continues to decline on a year-over-year basis.

Growth in permit demand was most robust in the Northeast and West, two of the more volatile regions.

Finally, the inventory of new homes for sale remains a significant headwind for residential construction activity.

While mortgage rates have fallen, perhaps prompting the homebuilders to take advantage...

...the fact that rate-cut expectations have tumbled suggests they 'they will not come' anytime soon, no matter how much you build.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 09:20

Under Intensifying US Pressure To Reach Deal, Zelensky Explodes: No Time "For All This S**t"

Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky has increasingly made his frustrations with the Trump administration public, but he may have just crossed the line with the US President, who Zelensky admits can be tough and unbending.

Zelensky has newly complained amid the latest Geneva trilateral talks that the US delegation could pressure him to make "unsuccessful decisions" and he is urging Washington to back off, even using expletives to make his point.

For starters, he claims that the Ukrainian public won't let him cede territory to Russia for the sake of peace even if he wanted to, as we highlighted previously.

But the latest colorful verbal broadside, cited by Axios on Tuesday as Russian and Ukrainian delegations convened in Geneva, saw Zelensky take direct aim at the head of Moscow's negotiating team, Vladimir Medinsky. Kiev's frustration at the state of dialogue has been boiling over.

Medinsky has argued - along with numerous Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin - that the conflict's historical roots must be addressed as part of any settlement, especially given the bulk of the Ukrainian population in the east (Donbas) has always been Russian speaking and looked to Moscow historically.

Zelensky dismissed that approach outright:

"We don’t have time for all this shit," he told the outlet. "So we have to decide, and have to finish the war."

Source: Al Jazeera/AP

Regardless, the Kremlin has lately made clear its aims to take the full Donbas either through talks or by force. Ukraine's military still holds 10% of the Donbas, however, and Kiev is rejecting a US proposal for it to draw back its forces as part of a conflict freeze leading to settlement. 

The White House this month has finally appeared to be ratcheting up the pressure directly on Zelensky to make some kind of serious land concession.

This was evident in the latest comments by President Trump on the topic of Geneva issued near the start of the week. Frustration with Kiev was evident when he told reporters aboard Air Force One, "Well, we have big talks." He stated that "It’s going to be very easy. I mean, look, so far, Ukraine better come to the table fast. That’s all I’m telling you."

Zelensky after this bitterly complained that it's 'not fair' for Trump to take aim at Ukraine and not Russia, and suggested maybe it's simply easer for Trump to do this given he doesn't want to upset the far larger, more formidable country.

Meanwhile, Medinsky has said Wednesday that the U.S.-mediated peace talks in Geneva had been "difficult but business-like, and that a new round of talks would be held soon," according to Reuters.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 09:10

Has America Reached Peak Idiocracy?

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

We live in a lowest common denominator society.

For the last several decades, virtually every major institution in our society has become less civilized, and that is because our entire population has become less civilized. 20 years ago, a film entitled “Idiocracy” was released. It was about an average American that was selected for “a top-secret hibernation program but is forgotten and left to awaken to a future so incredibly moronic that he’s easily the most intelligent person alive”. It was an incredibly stupid movie, but the truth is that we are living it right now. Did you see the Super Bowl halftime show? The FCC has ruled that it didn’t violate any federal decency regulations. Of course we might as well not have any decency regulations at all, because our television shows and our movies are filled with some of the raunchiest material imaginable and nobody ever seems to get in trouble for it.  Of course that is only part of the equation. Most of the “programming” that we constantly consume also seems to be specifically designed for people of extremely low intelligence. Sadly, this is not a coincidence. It has been said that art imitates life, and that is certainly accurate in this case.

In the “dumbed-down” environment that we find ourselves in today, it should be no surprise that “nude cruises” have been surging in popularity…

Imagine coming home from your next cruise with no tan lines.

Swimsuits are standard attire on many cruise ships, but some voyages don’t even require those. Nude cruises allow travelers to sail the high seas au naturel – and pack light. The American Association for Nude Recreation promotes the cruises as “a unique way to experience nude recreation, offering members options beyond traditional resort or club settings,” president Linda Weber told USA TODAY.

While the dress code might be non-restrictive, it doesn’t mean the sailings are a free-for-all on board; there is some etiquette that passengers should be familiar with before boarding.

While our society falls apart all around us, Americans are flocking to cruises that are filled with naked people.

What does that say about us?

Let me give you another example of what I am talking about.

A 20-year-old woman from California left her children in an extremely hot car while she got lip and butt injections.  By the time she was done with the procedures, her 1-year-old son had died…

A 20-year-old California mom was found guilty Wednesday in the death of her 1-year-old son, after reportedly leaving him in a sweltering car to receive lip and butt injections last June.

Maya Hernandez took a plea deal in the child endangerment case, ultimately dropping her first-degree murder charge in exchange for involuntary manslaughter.

On June 29, Bakersfield officers arrested and charged Hernandez after finding two young children left unattended in a vehicle for over two hours, according to a police report posted on a GoFundMe page. Authorities said the mother left the children unattended to undergo a cosmetic procedure inside a nearby medical spa.

What was she thinking?

In that case, it doesn’t appear that she intended to harm her children.

But in another case in New Mexico, a 38-year-old woman purposely killed her newborn child in a portable toilet…

A New Mexico woman is facing charges after she allegedly gave birth in a portable toilet and then killed the newborn by drowning them in the holding tank.

Sonia Cristal Jimenez, 38, arrived at Memorial Medical Center in Las Cruces at around 10:30 p.m. on Feb. 7, when staff said she appeared as if she had just given birth, but she had no baby with her, Las Cruces Police said in a press release.

Hospital staff then notified police about the unusual encounter.

She didn’t want the baby, and so she killed it.

As a society, we have so little respect for life because we have been trained to have so little respect for life.

In Michigan, a 3-year-old boy was recently killed because a couple wanted to “make room for a child that the two of them could have together”…

A mum and her ex-boyfriend have been accused of killing her three-year-old son in order to “make room for a child that the two of them could have together”.

Little Matthew Maison was found dead in the bed of his home in Port Huron Township, Michigan, by his babysitters on February 18, 2018. His mum, Amanda Maison, and Maurice Houle, who was her boyfriend at the time of Matthew’s death, were arrested in connection with the killing. An autopsy showed that Matthew had died from blunt force trauma injuries and possible suffocation.

The ex-couple allegedly admitted to abusing the young boy when they were arrested, prosecutors have previously said. Maison, 33, has pleaded guilty to a charge of second-degree homicide in relation to her son’s death, admitting as she appeared in court to enter her plea on November 5 that she abused Matthew.

These are not isolated incidents.

Every day there are even more signs that our society is rapidly degenerating.

Yes, we possess more advanced technology than previous generations, but in many ways that advanced technology is making things even worse.

For example, all over the country women are “marrying” AI husbands.  When an older version of ChatGPT was recently retired, it resulted in the “death” of one woman’s AI husband, and now she is in mourning…

A woman has been left in tears over the ‘death’ of her AI husband, after an old model of ChatGPT was retired this week – as she joins a slew of others ‘mourning’ their non-existent lovers’ deletion.

Speaking to the BBC, Rae (not her real name), who is based in Michigan, laid bare the heartbreak of saying goodbye to her virtual partner Barry, who she began chatting to last year – after going through divorce.

Initially, she turned to artificial intelligence for advice on self-improvement with things like skincare and workouts – but what first began as a ‘fantasy’ turned into real feelings, and they were ‘married’ within weeks.

Some surveys have shown that nearly 30 percent of Americans have engaged in a romantic relationship with an AI chatbot.

That is not a sign of an emotionally healthy society.

And even as we were all expressing outrage about the Epstein files, “sex dolls that look like kids” were being advertised on Facebook…

Sickening sex dolls that look like kids are being advertised for sale on Facebook.

A group of websites touting small models with overtly childlike features have published over 1,300 ads on the social media platform. They are alarmingly realistic in appearance and many ads use photos in sexualised poses, some holding balloons or teddy bears. The National Crime Agency warns the creepy imports “pose a significant risk to children”. And a former cop told us: “Anyone who buys one of these dolls should be a person of interest to the police.”

Thankfully, the offending ads were eventually taken down.

But this is the society that we live in now.

It is sick.

And even when people are arrested for criminal behavior, they are often dumped right back into the streets.

Needless to say, that can have tragic consequences.

In fact, one repeat offender in Seattle that had been arrested over and over again viciously attacked a 75-year-old woman with “a wooden board with nails in it”…

An elderly woman was savagely attacked in broad daylight by a man wielding a wooden board with nails in it.

Jeanette Marken, 75, was left permanently blinded in her right eye after being hit in the face with the makeshift weapon in Seattle, allegedly at the hands of repeat offender Fale Vaigalepa Pea, 42.

Family members told KOMO that a screw sticking out of the board gouged out Marken’s eye, and after several surgeries she was told she will not recover her eyesight in the eye.

One police officer that is very familiar with Fale Vaigalepa Pea referred to him as “a regular”…

‘He’s a regular. He usually punches,’ the officer responds.

‘I guess today he decided to escalate from his usual.’

According to KOMO, Pea’s string of offenses dates back to 2011, when he stabbed two people at a party.

They have been dumping this guy back into the streets for well over a decade.

This sort of thing happens day in and day out in major cities all over the nation.

What would our founders think if they could see us today?

We will soon be celebrating the 250th anniversary of our country, and we are literally committing societal suicide.  This is something that Abraham Lincoln once warned was a real possibility…

As the country approaches its 250th anniversary, we should remember Abraham Lincoln’s remark that no external enemy could by force take a drink from the Ohio River. “If destruction be our lot,” he said, “we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.”

If we keep going down the path that we are on, there is no future for us.

But if we make a choice to renounce what we have become and start embracing the values that early Americans held so dear, we could turn the ship in another direction.

Do you think that will actually happen?

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 08:50

Core Durable Goods Orders Surge For 9th Straight Month

US Durable Goods Orders dropped 1.4% MoM in preliminary December data (slightly better than the 2% decline expected) but well down from the +5.4% MoM surge in November...

Source: Bloomberg

The headline orders print was restrained by a decline in orders for aircraft.

Boeing said it received more orders for its planes in December than a month earlier, but the data don’t always correlate with the planemaker’s monthly figures.

That leaves Durable Goods Orders up 12.5% YoY in 2025 - one of the biggest annual increases ever.

Meanwhile, Core Durable Goods Orders (ex Transports) rose 0.9% MoM (triple the +0.3% MoM expected) and the ninth straight monthly increase...

Source: Bloomberg

Core Orders are up over 5% YoY in 2025 - the best YoY gain since Oct 2022 (and best annual gain since 2021).

Today's data also showed the value of core capital goods orders, a proxy for investment in equipment that excludes aircraft and military hardware, surged by dramaticallly larger-than-forecast 0.9%.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 08:41

Oil Surges On Report Warning US-Iran War Is Far Closer Than Americans Realize

Axios' Barak Ravid, a journalist very close to the Israeli government, writes Wednesday that the Trump White House is now "closer to a major war in the Middle East than most Americans realize. It could begin very soon."

The sources he spoke to, which could be American or Israeli, say that such an operation would be a "massive" campaign at least weeks in sustained length. If it the campaign goes the way of Iraq or Afghanistan, or Syria, the conflict could eventually be measured in years and not just months.

Further, "The sources noted it would likely be a joint U.S.-Israeli campaign that's much broader in scope — and more existential for the regime — than the Israeli-led 12-day war last June, which the U.S. eventually joined to take out Iran's underground nuclear facilities."

USAF/CNN

All of this looks to be going down with no public or Congressional debate whatsoever: "With the attention of Congress and the public otherwise occupied, there is little public debate about what could be the most consequential U.S. military intervention in the Middle East in at least a decade," notes Axios.

Both sides are citing 'progress' in the two rounds of indirect negotiations (in Oman and then Geneva) which have taken place thus far, however, there's been nothing yet in the way of specific agreement. Washington's commitment to see talks through even for weeks at this point is highly in quesiton.

The following was the initial Iranian assessment of how the talks led by Witkoff and Kushner in Geneva went this week:

Iran has said it has reached an understanding with the US on the main "guiding principles" to resolve their dispute over Tehran's nuclear programme.

Speaking after indirect talks in Geneva, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi added that work still needed to be done. The US said "progress was made".

Badr Albusaidi, foreign minister of mediator Oman, said the negotiations "concluded with good progress towards identifying common goals and relevant technical issues".

The Iranians have asked for two weeks to hammer out a detailed proposal, with an American official stating, "Progress was made, but there are still a lot of details to discuss. The Iranians said they would come back in the next two weeks with detailed proposals to address some of the open gaps in our positions."

Given President Trump has ordered a second US carrier group to the region, along with a huge number of support aircraft, does Iran really have two weeks to spare? 

Oil reaches HOD Wednesday soon on heels of Axios report, with WTI kissing $64/barrel...

To some degree, the Iranians are likely buying time, knowing that a surprise, unprovoked attack could be imminent. This would be similar to the June war, but unlike that scenario this would indeed be much bigger.

There's reason to believe Trump may stay restrained, however, and give negotiations time. Fear of higher oil prices could ultimately be the deciding factor here, pushing Trump to settle with Iran and not spark another completely unpredictable, likely disastrous war in the Middle East. 

Public sentiment indicator...

⚡️#BREAKING Odds of a U.S strike on Iran by March 31st now up to 60%.

With all the news coming out, I wouldn’t be surprised… pic.twitter.com/QtpuSvtDix

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) February 18, 2026

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 08:36

Global "Everything Rally" Pushes US Futures HIgher As "AI Disruption" Fears Fade

US equity futures trade near session highs, after rising much of the overnight session amid muted volumes. Yesterday, US stocks recovered their early losses starting just after the EU close and that momentum has carried through to global markets today with what appears to be re-grossing in EU and continued momentum in the Japan trade. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are 0.4% while Nasdaq 100 contracts rise 0.5% with broad premarket gains across software names and tech heavyweights. Mag7 names are mostly higher (NVDA +1.8%, AMZN +1.4%) and most sectors are higher pointing to what JPMorgan calls an "Everything Rally" today as the market tries to find a bottom and was less reactive to AI headlines yesterday than we have seen most of the year. Europe’s Stoxx 600 hit a record high following a slate of positive earnings. Bond yields are +1-2bp with a USD that has caught a bid. In commodities, all 3 complexes are higher with precious metals leading; brent crude is headed for the highest level in a week. Overnight we learned that Japan would $36bn (of $550bn commitment) into US infra (natgas, crude export, and synthetic diamond production). Today’s macro data focus is on Cap / Durable Goods, Housing Starts, regional Fed indicators, TIC data, and the latest Fed Minutes.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher: Nvidia (NVDA) rises 1.9% after Meta Platforms Inc. agreed to deploy “millions” of its processors over the next few years, tightening an already close relationship between two of the biggest companies in the artificial intelligence industry (Amazon +1.3%, Microsoft +0.4%, Alphabet +0.2%, Apple +0.06%, Meta unch, Tesla +0.3%)

• Applied Digital (APLD) falls 8% after Nvidia reported exiting its stake in a 13F filing.
• Axcelis Technologies (ACLS) declines 13% after the semiconductor manufacturing company gave a first-quarter forecast that is weaker than expected.
• Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) climbs 6% after the electronic design automation software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as positive.
• Caesars Entertainment (CZR) rises 5% after the casino operator reported same store adj. Ebitda for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Global-e Online (GLBE) rises 18% after the application software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a positive forecast.
• Mister Car Wash (MCW) climbs 17% after agreeing to be taken private by Leonard Green & Partners at $7 per share in cash.
• New York Times Co. (NYT) rises 3% after Berkshire Hathaway built a stake in the publisher.
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) tumbles 7% after the security software company gave a forecast for adjusted earnings that was weaker than expected for both the third quarter and the full year.
• Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI) climbs 7% after the shipping and mailing software firm posted fourth-quarter earnings that topped expectations and management provided a strong 2026 profit forecast.
• Rush Street (RSI) rises 18% after the gaming company reported revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Sandisk (SNDK) falls over 3% as Western Digital is selling a stake in the the flash-memory unit that it spun off.
• SimilarWeb (SMWB) falls 23% after the web services company’s fourth-quarter results missed expectations and it gave an outlook that analysts described as disappointing.
• Vita Coco (COCO) rises 6% after the beverage firm provided a strong forecast for 2026 net sales.

After months of gains fueled by optimism over AI, equity markets have turned cautious amid a clash between disruption fears and doubts that heavy spending will yield meaningful returns. The setbacks in US stocks have prompted investors to look elsewhere, with European and Asian benchmarks far outpacing the S&P 500 this year.

“It’s hard to know where the floor on valuation is going to be,” Sophie Huynh, portfolio manager at BNP Paribas Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “So I think there’s going to be some temptation to buy on dips.”

Apple has decoupled from the Nasdaq amid the recent AI angst: It’s seen as a safer bet because it isn’t participating in the capex bonanza and doesn’t have a major business line that’s threatened by AI. Rotation is also cropping up among regions — with renewed interest in European equities — and in the latest batch of 13F filings. Berkshire Hathaway slashed its stake in Amazon by more than 75% in the fourth quarter, while also building a stake in the New York Times, in Warren Buffett’s last new bet as chief executive officer of the conglomerate.

Rotation is also cropping up among regions — with renewed interest in European equities — and in the latest batch of 13F filings. Berkshire Hathaway slashed its stake in Amazon by more than 75% in the fourth quarter, while also building a stake in the New York Times, in Warren Buffett’s last new bet as chief executive officer of the conglomerate.

Digging into earnings estimates suggests that AI’s impact on corporate growth is seen as limited outside of Big Tech. Earnings growth estimates for the Mag 7 in 2026 have gone up to 18% from 14% in the aftermath of last year’s tariff-related selloff. For the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500, expectations have fallen to 11% from 12.5%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. In other AI news, Meta agreed to deploy “millions” of Nvidia processors over the next few years, tightening an already close relationship between the pair. ION Group’s founder said investors are punishing the wrong companies after more than $2 trillion was wiped off the value of software firms in recent weeks. 

Other interesting observations in 13F filings include Third Point increasing its weighting in healthcare while reducing exposure to consumer staples. Pershing Square cut its position in Alphabet and boosted its stake in Amazon, while Meta represented its biggest new buy in the fourth quarter.

In central banks, some Fed officials have begun suggesting that productivity growth from AI could mean higher rates, a view that would put them at odds with the Trump administration. The FT reported that Christine Lagarde plans to leave the ECB before her eight-year term ends in October 2027. An ECB spokesperson said that Lagarde “is totally focused on her mission and has not taken any decision regarding the end of her term.”

Analog Devices, Moody’s and Global Payments are among companies expected to report results before the market opens. Moody’s outlook for 2026 will be in focus following S&P Global’s worse-than-expected profit forecast earlier this month. Earnings from Carvana and Molson Coors follow later in the day.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.9%, rising for a third day and on track for a record close.  Miners lead gains after Glencore reported solid full-year earnings, while chemical stocks lag as a disappointing report from IMCD weighs on the sector. BAE Systems shares jump after the defense firm predicted continued solid sales and earnings growth for the year. Bank and energy also outperform.Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

• BAE shares gain as much as 6.3% after full-year results analysts called solid and where cash flow stood out.
• Puig shares rise as much as 6.6%, the most since October, as the Spanish company’s full-year revenue beat estimates, with analysts pointing to a strong performance in its main fragrances and fashion business.
• Mediobanca shares rise as much as 9%, the most since last April, after Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena’s board approved a plan to pursue delisting the investment bank. Paschi shares advance as much as 4.8%.
• Glencore shares rally as much as 3.5% in London after the miner reported adjusted Ebitda for the 2025 full year that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Amrize shares climb as much as 6.1%, with the building materials company hitting the highest on record since its June 2025 IPO, on strong cash returns and positive guidance.
• IMCD shares slump as much as 13%, their biggest drop in almost seven months, after the specialty chemicals maker missed expectations across all metrics.
• Bayer shares slide as much as 7.9%, reversing Tuesday’s gain following the German conglomerate’s class-action settlement plan in relation to the Roundup weedkiller litigation.
• Genmab shares fall as much as 6.9% after the biotech firm forecast full-year revenue which analysts say implies a downside to expectations.
• Carrefour shares drop as much as 5% after delivering full-year results which are seen as slightly weaker than expected.
• EssilorLuxottica shares drop as much as 3.3% to the lowest since July after Bloomberg reported that Apple is accelerating development on new wearable devices, including smart glasses.
• EFG International shares fall as much as 9.4% after an additional legal provision and rising costs “spoilt” the bank’s results by causing earnings to miss expectations.

Resurgent optimism about Europe and the benefits of German stimulus is driving investment flows into the region’s equity markets and fueling an outperformance that is expected to last. The positivity is visible in overall positioning, according to the latest Bank of America survey of the region’s fund managers. A net 35% are overweight European equities relative to global markets, up from 9% just three months earlier.  “The AI scare trade is creative destruction in the making, and when one doesn’t know how it will unfold, one diversifies,” said Nicolas Domont, fund manager at Optigestion in Paris. “Investors are particularly interested in companies which have predictable order books and revenues, such as in defense.”

Asian stocks advanced, led by a rebound in Japanese shares, as many markets around the region remain shut for Lunar New Year holidays.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%, snapping a three-day losing streak. Mitsubishi UFJ and Tokyo Electron were among the biggest boosts to the index. Equities also gained in India, Australia, New Zealand and Indonesia. The announcement of Japan’s $36BN investment in US projects as part of a trade deal bolstered optimism in Tokyo. Easing trade tensions have helped support shares across the region, along with improving earnings in markets including India. Confirmation of the investment plans by Japan is positive for overall sentiment, said Tomoaki Kawasaki, a senior analyst at Iwaicosmo Securities. “If these investments help boost the US economy, that could also drive up US yields, which is a plus for financials.” Recent volatility fueled by investor concerns over the impact of AI on corporate spending and business survival has been exacerbated by low trading volumes this week. Markets in South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia reopen Thursday, while trading resumes Friday in Hong Kong. 

In FX, the dollar edged higher against most major peers. The euro held its modest loss after the Financial Times reported that Christine Lagarde is expected to leave the European Central Bank before her term as president expires in October 2027. An ECB spokesperson said Lagarde hasn’t yet made a decision regarding the end of her tenure. The kiwi is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.7% against the greenback after a dovish hold by the RBNZ. Cable is flat.

In rates, Treasuries dip, pushing US 10-year yields up 1 bp to 4.07%. Gilts outperform after UK inflation dropped to its lowest level since March 2025. UK 10-year borrowing costs fall 1 bp to 4.37%.

The Federal Reserve is due to release the minutes of its January meeting later on Wednesday. Bloomberg Economics expects the notes to show a broad consensus to hold interest rates steady after three cuts. Money markets continue to price in at least two cuts for the rest of the year. Even so, progress on inflation could give the Fed room to ease policy by 100 basis points in 2026, Bloomberg Economics said.

In commodities, brent crude futures rise 1.9% to near $68.70 a barrel, paring Tuesday’s fall. Spot silver rises 3% toward $76/oz.

Today's US economic data calendar includes December preliminary durable goods orders and housing starts and February New York Fed services gauge (8:30am), January industrial production (9:15am) and December Treasury International Capital flows (4pm). Fed speakers scheduled include Governor Bowman (1pm), and minutes of January FOMC meeting, at which rate cuts were paused, are slated for 2pm release.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.4%,
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.5%,
• Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.7%,
• DAX +0.6%,
• CAC 40 +0.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.07%
• VIX -0.9 points at 19.38
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1184.37,
• euro -0.2% at $1.1834
• WTI crude +0.6% at $62.68/barrel

Top Overnight News

• The Trump administration is closer to a major war with Iran than people realise, a military operation would likely be a massive, weeks long campaign that will be a joint US-Israeli attack: Axios
• US-brokered meetings in Geneva between Russia and Ukraine broke up after barely 90 minutes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Moscow of attempting to prolong the process: BBG
• US envoys juggle two crisis talks, raising questions about prospects for success: RTRS
• Epstein tried to build web of powerful ties across Middle East, documents show: RTRS
• A senior U.S. official on Tuesday revealed what he said were new details of an underground nuclear test blast that China allegedly conducted in June 2020. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Yeaw said that a remote seismic station in Kazakhstan measured an "explosion" of magnitude 2.75 located 450 miles (720 km) away at the Lop Nor test grounds in western China on June 22, 2020: RTRS
• ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to step down from her role before her term ends in October 2027. Lagarde wants to leave before the French presidential election in April next year, which would allow French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to find her replacement together: FT
• ECB’s Cipollone has no indication President Lagarde plans early resignation: RTRS
• UK inflation dropped to its lowest level since March 2025, with consumer prices rising 3% in January from a year earlier.  The latest figures keep the Bank of England on track for a spring rate cut, with money markets pricing two quarter-point reductions this year: BBG.
• ‘Woke’ AI Feud Escalates Between Pentagon and Anthropic: WSJ
• Microsoft said it is on pace to invest $50 billion by the end of the decade to help expand AI to countries across the 'Global South': RTRS
• Sanae Takaichi was formally reappointed as Japan’s Prime Minister following her electoral win, allowing her to focus on budget deliberations and a trade deal with US President Donald Trump. Takaichi announced the first batch of projects as part of Japan’s $550 billion investment commitment under the trade deal, including a natural gas facility and a synthetic industrial diamond manufacturing facility: BBG
• Uber to invest over $100 million in autonomous vehicle charging amid robotaxi push: RTRS
• Land Grab for Data Centers Is One More Obstacle to Much-Needed Housing: WSJ
• UK inflation hits lowest in nearly a year at 3.0%, strengthening bets on a BoE rate cut: RTRS
• Nine Skiers Missing After Northern California Avalanche: WSJ
• Americans believe Epstein files show the powerful get a pass, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
• Fed minutes could highlight shift in balance of risks as policymakers put rates on hold: RTRS

Trade/Tariffs

• Japanese PM Takeichi confirms to have agreed with the US on the first set of investment projects

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded higher in continued thin conditions as many regional bourses remained closed for holidays. ASX 200 mildly gained amid outperformance in real estate, tech and financials, with the latter helped by gains in Big 4 bank NAB post-earnings, although miners,  materials and resources were at the other end of the spectrum after the prior day's commodities-related pressure. Nikkei 225 rallied back above the 57,000 level with sentiment in Japan underpinned by the better-than-expected trade data for January, which showed the fastest pace of increase in exports in more than three years.

Top Asian News

• Japanese PM Takaichi affirms will consider revision of constitution and wants to pass budget and tax reform bill quickly, adds to consider revision of imperial household law.
• Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said will carry out responsible fiscal policy, while keeping in mind the IMF's preliminary policy recommendation.
• IMF said if volatility hits market liquidity, the BoJ should be ready for targeted interventions, such as emergency bond buying, and that Japan should avoid cutting consumption tax as it would weaken fiscal space and raise fiscal risks.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.7%) are trading entirely in the green, with the IBEX (+1.1%) leading gains, closely followed by the FTSE MIB (+0.9%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.7%). European sectors are broadly in the green, with Basic Resources (+1.9%) and Banks (+1.5%) leading the way while Chemicals (-1.1%) lags. A rebound in metals prices and positive Glencore (+3.3%) earnings are helping lift the Basic Resources sector, while the Board of Monte dei Paschi approved a plan to fully integrate Mediobanca and delist the bank while preserving the brand.

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves reiterates that the UK will take defense spend past 2.6% in future budgets.

FX

• G10s are mostly lower across the board; GBP remains afloat following above-expected Core and Services metrics, whilst the NZD is the clear laggard in the aftermath of the RBNZ’s decision to keep rates steady (as expected), but held a dovish skew.
• DXY is mildly firmer this morning, and currently trades at the upper end of a 97.11-97.32 range, holding just above its 21 DMA at 92.20. Further upside could see a test of the prior day’s high at 97.54. Really not much driving things for the index this morning, but could face some volatility on a) geopols, b) US data, c) FOMC Minutes.
• GBP remains resilient vs the USD strength this morning, following the region’s inflation report, with particular focus on the hotter-than-expected Services and Core metrics. In more detail, the headline printed in line with the market consensus at 3.0% Y/Y, and as such, slightly hotter than the BoE's 2.9% forecast for the period. The headline was also accompanied by a hotter-than-expected core and services figure. M/M metrics were broadly as expected, unwinding the December base effects. Taking a look at food inflation, it fell to 3.6% (prev. 4.5%); ING suggests that hawks can become “a little more relaxed about the upside risks to inflation”. ING sticks with its call for a March cut and then another by June. Market pricing shifted a little dovishly, with the probability of a March cut now seen at 95% vs 84% pre-release. Cable initially knee-jerked lower, and then immediately reversed that move to print a session peak at 1.3577; the upside then gradually petered out, to now trade within a 1.3549-1.3577 range.
• NZD is the clear underperformer this morning, following the RBNZ’s decision to keep rates steady (as expected), though the accompanying commentary held a dovish skew. In brief, the Bank stated that the committee will continue to assess incoming data carefully and if the economy evolves as expected, monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative for some time. Furthermore, it stated that inflation is most likely returning to within the committee's 1–3% target band in the current quarter and that, conditional on the central economic outlook, the OCR is projected to remain around its current level in the near term before increasing from late 2026. NZD/USD currently trades around the 0.60 mark (coincides with its 21 DMA), within a 0.5989-0.6053 range.

Central Banks

• RBNZ keeps the OCR at 2.25%, as expected, while it stated that the committee will continue to assess incoming data carefully. If the economy evolves as expected, monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative for some time. Committee is confident that inflation will fall to the 2% midpoint over the next 12 months due to spare capacity in the economy, modest wage growth, and core inflation within the target band. Inflation is most likely returning to within the committee's 1–3% target band in the current quarter.
• RBNZ Governor Breman said OCR trajectory is aligned with the anticipated evolution of the economy, adds OCR track indicates there is a possibility of a hike towards the end of the year but noted Q4 hike is not fully priced in to the OCR track.
• RBNZ Governor Breman said forward path reflects stronger economic outlook.
• Fed's Daly (2027 voter) said models show productivity gains are lifting the neutral rates, labour market shows less churn and dynamism, adds impact on neutral rate is unlikely in the near term and growth is solid, but firms cite uncertain demand.
• ECB's Villeroy said the ECB has won the battle against inflation, domestic French inflation is undershooting on temporary factors but it is not too low.
• ECB President Lagarde is expected to leave the ECB, before her eight-year term ends in October 2027, according to FT citing a person familiar with her thinking. However, ECB said that Lagarde remains committed to her role and has not made a decision on her departure.

Fixed Income

• A bearish start for fixed income, though only modestly with USTs lower by a handful of ticks in a narrow 112-30+ to 113-05+ band. US specifics thus far are a little light as we continue to digest the better-than-expected data on Tuesday and Fed speak that was a little hawkish from voter Barr, weighing on the complex. More insight will be derived from the FOMC Minutes this evening, which follows a 20yr auction and Fed's Bowman.
• The main focus point this morning is Gilts, though the benchmark is little changed as things stand. Opened lower by 17 ticks and then fell one more to a 92.03 trough in reaction to the morning's CPI data, while the headline Y/Y was in-line with market consensus, it was hotter than the BoE's view; additionally, core and services figures came in hotter than the market forecast. However, the net takeaway from the release is that it doesn't definitely solve the March vs April debate, with the decision in March looking like another 5-4 with Bailey to tie-break.
• Bunds are little moved in a 129.15-39 band, no move to the morning's Final French CPI series. The main point of focus for the EZ is reporting in the FT, among others, that ECB President Lagarde could step down before her term ends in October 2027. The FT outlines, citing sources, that this would ensure both French President Macron and German Chancellor Merz are in power and have a significant say in appointing a successor. No move to a tepid 2036 Bund auction.
• Germany sells EUR 4.238bln vs exp. EUR 5.5bln 2.90% 2036 Bund: b/c 1.46x (prev. 1.65x), average yield 2.73% (prev. 2.85%), retention 22.9% (prev. 23.3%).
• Kenya reportedly intends to issue additional USD denominated noted, potentially in multiple series, Bloomberg reported.
• Australia sold AUD 1.2bln 4.25% October 2035 bonds, b/c 3.90, avg. yield 4.7439%.

Commodity

• Crude prices are nursing prior day losses following yesterday's geopolitical development between the US and Iran, which ended on a more positive note, though caution remains. Thus far, officials suggest that talks were substantive and some issues were clarified, but highlighted that talks were difficult. Thereafter, the crude complex notched session highs following an Axios report, which suggested that the Trump administration is closer to a major war with Iran than people realise. Brent Apr'26 moved higher from USD 67.74/bbl to a high of USD 68.08/bbl over six minutes.
• In the metal space, spot gold and silver made gradual strides higher during the APAC session. XAU trades above the USD 4,900/oz within a USD 4869.95-4961.4/oz range, whilst XAG trades just above USD 75/oz within the 72.2305-57.783 range. Newsflow has been light for precious metals thus far in the European session.
• Copper prices are also rebounding, nursing prior day losses and in tandem with the improving risk tone. 3LME copper trades in the upper end range of USD 12.649-12.731.2k/t. Reminder that China, the largest market for copper, remains closed due to the Chinese new year’s.
• Hungary seeks EU approval to import Russian seaborne crude, says the Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
• Slovakia has declared an oil emergency and will release oil from its state reserves.
• US Energy Secretary Wright said they are looking to end Iran's progress towards nuclear weapons and want IEA nations to focus on energy security.
• Study shows that US has enough raw copper to meet domestic demand and can meet 146% of annual demand using raw copper from overseas and domestic mines and from scrap, while China 40% of its demand, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence cited by FT.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukraine's President Zelensky tells reporters that they've agreed to continue peace discussions, adds that talks were difficult and positions are different for now.
• Head of Ukrainian delegation says negotiations were substantive and there was progress; a number of issues were clarified.
• Update of new round of Ukraine talks is that there's been no concrete date set, IFX reported.
• The top Russian negotiator said the talks were difficult but business-like, RIA reported.
• Ukraine talks in Geneva have ended, new round of talks will be held soon, RIA reported.
• US Special Envoy Witkoff said US facilitated the third trilateral meeting between Ukraine and Russia, adds Ukraine and Russia agreed to update leaders and pursue an agreement.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• The Trump administration is closer to a major war with Iran than people realise, Axios reports citing sources; a military operation would likely be a massive, weeks long campaign that will be a joint US-Israeli attack.
• US Energy Secretary Wright said they are looking to end Iran's progress towards nuclear weapons and want IEA nations to focus on energy security.
• Iran and Russia are reportedly said to conduct navy drills in the Sea of Oman and Northern Indian Ocean on February 19th.

Geopolitics: Other

• US Secretary of State Rubio has been holding secret talks with the grandson of Cuba's Castro, Axios reported citing sources.
• US State Department senior official said the US would resume nuclear tests to match 'opaque' Chinese activity and flagged new details about a 2020 test the US recently accused China of secretly conducting, according to SCMP.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: United States Feb 13 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -0.3%
• 8:30 am: United States Dec P Durable Goods Orders, est. -2%, prior 5.3%
• 8:30 am: United States Dec P Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
• 8:30 am: United States Dec Housing Starts, est. 1303.5k
• 8:30 am: United States Dec P Building Permits, est. 1400k
• 9:15 am: United States Jan Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
• 9:15 am: United States Jan Capacity Utilization, est. 76.5%, prior 76.3%
• 1:00 pm: United States Fed’s Bowman Speaks in Washington
• 2:00 pm: United States FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 4:00 pm: United States Dec Total Net TIC Flows, prior 212.04b
• 4:00 pm: United States Dec Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior 220.24b

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As US markets returned from the holiday, volatility re-emerged across AI linked equities, with the VIX at one point nudging up towards YTD highs (just shy of 23). Around that time, the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 were down roughly -0.9% and -1.5% respectively, marking their intraday lows within an hour of the European close. However, both indices then staged a sharp rebound, closing +0.10% and +0.23% higher on the day.

The NASDAQ (+0.14%) and the Russell 2000 (-0.00%) were also little changed, but with sizeable dispersion underneath the headline stability. For instance, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (-0.02%) recovered from being down more than -2.5% intraday, the software & services (-1.59%) segment still led the declines within the S&P 500. And some defensive sectors also struggled, with consumer staples down -1.51% as Walmart fell -3.76% from what had been a 20% gain YTD. Volatility was also evident across other high profile 2026 themes, with Brent crude (-1.79%), gold (-2.29%) and Bitcoin (-1.72%) all ending weaker, in part thanks to cautiously upbeat comments out of US-Iran talks.

In Europe, early signs of AI related concerns weighed on several indices, although sentiment improved into the close. The STOXX 600 finished +0.45%, with real estate, healthcare and banks outperforming, while the CAC 40 (+0.54%), FTSE 100 (+0.79%) and DAX (+0.80%) all outperformed.

Markets also digested a range of second tier US data. The Empire Manufacturing Index came in slightly better than expected at +7.1 (vs +6.2 consensus), while the NY Fed February employment index rose to +4.0 from -9.0 previously. Weekly ADP data showed 10,250 jobs added over the four weeks ending January 31, so consistent with slightly over 40k monthly job growth. Less positively, the NAHB Housing Market Index saw a slight decline in February to its lowest in six months (36 vs 38 expected).

Alongside the data, we received some patient-sounding Fed commentary. Fed President Goolsbee reiterated that further evidence of inflation moving back towards 2% would be required before easing, while Fed Governor Barr said that “it will likely be appropriate to hold rates steady for some time”. Markets slightly dialed down expectations for rate cuts, with 60bps of 2026 easing priced by yesterday’s close (-2.3bps on the day). In turn, 2yr Treasury yields edged higher (+2.7bps), while 10yr (+1.1bps) and 30yr (-0.6bps) saw muted moves, resulting in some curve flattening.

By contrast, government bonds rallied across Europe, with 10yr bund yields falling -1.6bps, OATs -2.8bps and BTPs -1.7bps. The main trigger for that was the February ZEW survey, which saw expectations unexpectedly decline (58.2 vs 59.6 prev. and 65.2 exp.). While the ZEW is often noisy, it does have some leading properties and the print will add attention to the upcoming PMI data on Friday and the Ifo survey on Monday.

Here in the UK, 10yr gilts (-2.4bps) also rallied following weaker labour market data, notably showing youth unemployment reaching its highest cyclical level since 2015 at 16.1%. Payrolled employees declined for a fifth consecutive month, with the January flash estimate pointing to an -11k fall, while the unemployment rate edged up to 5.2% (vs 5.1% expected). Overall, the data did little to ease concerns over the softness of the UK labour market and markets dialed up expectations for near-term BoE easing, with pricing of a March rate cut rising from 74% to 79%. As a reminder, our UK economist continues to expect two further rate cuts this year, likely by summer.

We also saw some dovish repricing in Canada, where CPI printed slightly below expectations, with headline inflation at +2.3% y/y (vs +2.4%) and trimmed core at +2.4% y/y (vs +2.6%). With inflation concerns continuing to ease, Canadian 2yr yields fell -2.3bps to a 10-week low of 2.45%.

Turning to geopolitics, oil prices initially extended recent gains amid reports that Iran had temporarily closed parts of the Strait of Hormuz during military drills, but prices then reversed course as it emerged that the latest US-Iran talks appeared constructive. Iran said it reached a “general agreement on a set of guiding principles” for a potential nuclear deal, with Bloomberg reporting later on that Iranian negotiators are due to return in two weeks’ time with a new proposal to address gaps that remain versus US demands. By the close, Brent crude declined by -1.79% to $67.42/bbl. The more encouraging geopolitical backdrop also weighed on gold (-2.29%) and silver (-4.03%), which extended declines that had emerged during yesterday’s Asia hours amid the Lunar New Year holiday.

Asian equity markets are higher this morning but with still low volumes due to the closure of markets in mainland China, South Korea, and Hong Kong. As I check my screens, Japanese stocks are recovering from losses incurred earlier this week, with the Nikkei and Topix indices both trading around +1.25% higher respectively. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.52%) is higher for the third session, while the S&P/NZD 50 (+1.54%) is up after three sessions of losses, following a less hawkish hold than expected from the RBNZ. The kiwi has declined by -0.81% to 0.60 against the dollar, while the yield on the 2-year policy-sensitive government bonds is down -9.8bps to 3.096%, the lowest level since mid-January.

Elsewhere in Asia time, S&P 500 (+0.20%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.27%) futures are both higher with US Treasury yields up around a basis point across the curve. As we go to print the FT is reporting that ECB President Lagarde is looking to step down before her 8-year term ends in October next year, targeting a move before the French elections in April 2027, thus allowing her successor's appointment to be made by the current set of politicians. As I press send on this the ECB has said that Lagarde has not made any decision on the end of her term. So a live story to watch.

Looking ahead, upcoming data include US January industrial production, capacity utilisation, the leading index and December durable goods orders. Elsewhere, UK January CPI, RPI and PPI data are due, alongside Canada’s January existing home sales. Central bank events include the release of the FOMC meeting minutes and speeches from ECB members Villeroy and Schnabel. Notable earnings include Analog Devices and Booking, while the US Treasury will auction $16bn of 20 year bonds.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 08:31

Package-Food Stocks Sink After "Most Downbeat" Consumer Conference, General Mills Guidance Woes

A fresh reminder that the K-shaped economy remains a very big problem emerged Tuesday at the Consumer Analyst Group of New York (CAGNY) conference, where top U.S. packaged food executives struck a sour tone about persistent consumer softening and unease over elevated food prices.

General Mills CEO Jeff Harmening told the audience at CAGNY that cereal, snacks, and pet food are among the categories taking the biggest hit as consumers struggle with affordability woes. He said the pressure is being fueled by inflation, reductions in government food benefits, geopolitical uncertainty, and a fragile consumer environment.

Those factors "have led to significant consumer stress, especially for the middle- and lower-income groups," Harmening said.

Also on Tuesday, General Mills plunged 7% (its biggest drop since May 2022) after cutting its full-year sales outlook. It now expects organic net sales to decline 1.5% to 2%, compared with its prior forecast of down 1% to up 1%.

BNP Paribas analyst Max Gumport told clients CAGNY was "one of the most downbeat in recent memory for the packaged food group." He noted the group is still facing several headwinds that have contributed to a "more elongated than anticipated recovery in volume."

Beyond a cash-strapped consumer, Gumport also cited the surging use of GLP-1 drugs, intensifying competition from "disruptor" brands, and ongoing financial stress as some of the top pressures across the packaged food industry.

Also at the conference, Dana McNabb, group president of North America retail at General Mills, said the company has implemented a new lower-pricing strategy that has lifted volumes by eight percentage points.

McNabb said General Mills is targeting the price points that deter purchases and keeping prices below those thresholds. She added that the company is taking about 20% of its "least productive" products off the market.

Mondelēz International CEO Dirk Van de Put told CAGNY that consumers have dialed back on snack buying "because of high prices and flat spendable income."

UBS analyst Torsten Sippel commented on the market reaction on Wednesday, saying: "Staples are finally pulling back after several weeks of outperformance, following disappointing guidance from General Mills. Packaged Food {UBXXFOOD Index} is down 4%."

The S&P 500 Packaged Foods Sub-Industry Index closed down nearly 4%, not far from its Covid lows.

Our view is that consumers are addicted to junk food and are likely only temporarily dialing back spending in this segment as they look for new ways to fund their habits.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 07:20

Kremlin Mocks European 'Illusions' For Wanting Own Nuclear Umbrella

Currently France and Britain are in talks to potentially extend their nuclear arsenals to protect Europe as a defense 'umbrella' - at a moment some officials have questioned the United States commitment to leading NATO.

Politico wrote in the aftermath of the Munich Security Conference, "Multiple European countries are publicly backing talks on a homegrown nuclear deterrent to complement American atomic weapons following an erosion of trust in a Donald Trump-led US."

Russian Ambassador to the UK Andrey Kelin has issued the Kremlin's reaction to these latest developments, asserting that the British ‘nuclear umbrella’ will fail to provide extra security to other NATO members.

Russian Ambassador to the UK Andrey Kelin, via Al Jazeera screenshot.

The diplomat's words were captured in an interview with Russian newspaper Izvestia on Tuesday. Kelin described that it is "obvious that the British 'nuclear umbrella' will not be able to provide any additional material security guarantees" to Europe.

Moscow meanwhile continues to closely monitor the moves by "states pursuing an overtly anti-Russian policy" - he emphasized.

"The possibility of the expansion of nuclear safeguards will be taken into account in our military planning as well as in further discussions of the strategic stability issues," the ambassador added.

Kelin then took a swipe at Britain's hawkish stance in the context of the Ukraine war: "The strengthening of such potential apparently instills in London an illusory hope of leadership in ensuring European security," he said.

Moscow's growing concerns over British policy is in part related to plans to purchase a dozen F-35 fighter jets from the US, capable of carrying missiles tipped with nuclear warheads.

Additionally, when the tiny but outspoken Baltic states - directly on Russia's doorstep - try to tout NATO 'nuclear deterrent' talking points, it seems natural that Moscow would be extremely concerned: 

Estonia isn’t ruling out joining early-stage talks on a common nuclear deterrent in Europe, Deputy Defense Minister Tuuli Duneton said in an interview. "We are always open to discuss" with partners, she said, while emphasizing the U.S. was still "committed to providing nuclear deterrence for allied nations."

Latvia’s Prime Minister Evika Siliņa echoed that. "Nuclear deterrence can give us new opportunities. Why not?" she said, while cautioning that any steps would have to be in compliance with "our international commitments."

NATO top leadership has still signaled no change in direction on the conventional US nuclear umbrella, however.

The United States nuclear umbrella, which has protected allies and cut down on the spread of nuclear weapons, is the "ultimate guarantor of freedom" in Europe, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte says.

"The ultimate guarantor is the nuclear umbrella from the United States," Rutte… pic.twitter.com/8GCU5oc4O6

— PBS News (@NewsHour) February 17, 2026

In the backdrop is the fact that that the landmark New START nuclear treaty between Washington and Moscow has ceased to exist as of this month. Russia is offering that it won't expand its arsenal so long as the US does the same. But this is still dangerous, uncharted territory.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 04:15

White House Voices Strong Support For Hungary's Orban Ahead Of Elections

Via The Libertarian Institute 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio voiced strong support for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Orbán is seeking a fifth term as leader in the April election.

"I'm going to be very blunt with you. The prime minister and the President have a very, very close personal relationship and working relationship," Rubio said in a press conference with Orbán on Monday.

via Associated Press

"I think it has been incredibly beneficial to the relationship between our two countries, and it’s important to understand how important the relations between leaders are to the relations between countries." He continued, "President Trump is deeply committed to your success."

While Orbán has a strong relationship with President Donald Trump, he has been a roadblock to European leaders' efforts to increase Western support for Ukraine. Hungary has used its position in NATO and the EU to slow or limit aid to Ukraine and the economic war against Russia.

Some EU members were attempting to use frozen Russian assets as collateral for a massive loan to Ukraine. Orbán was key to preventing the EU from moving forward with the loan.

Budapest has repeatedly expressed displeasure with Kiev over Ukraine's disabling of the Russian pipeline that carries oil to Hungary. Hungary is now requesting that Croatia allow Russian oil transit to bypass Ukraine.

President Donald Trump has been willing to use his leverage to influence elections around the globe. In Argentina, he conditions a $20 billion assistance package on President Javier Milei’s party winning elections. The President has also voiced strong support or opposition to candidates in Honduras and Iraq.

Rubio told Orbán that Hungary could receive similar support as Argentina.

2019: Senator Rubio and others expressed concerns about Hungary's "democratic erosion" and urged the Trump administration to address issues like the rule of law, media freedom, and corruption during meeting with Orbán.

2026: Secretary Rubio endorsed Orbán. pic.twitter.com/hQ4Ta69TY9

— Benjamin Alvarez (@BenjAlvarez1) February 16, 2026

"If you have financial struggles, if you face things that are impediments to growth, if you face things that threaten the stability of your country, I know that President Trump would be very interested because of your relationship with him and because of the importance of this country to us," the Secretary of State said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 03:30

More "Secret Investments" By Adani Family Associates Revive Market Manipulation Allegations

In early 2023, as scrutiny mounted around India’s Adani Group, two close associates of the Adani family acknowledged to their bankers that they controlled billions of dollars in the conglomerate’s shares through hedge funds.

The admission — found in records reviewed by OCCRP, who called them "secret investments" in a new investigative piece— came soon after Hindenburg Research accused the group of inflating its stock through “brazen” manipulation that included promoters and insiders holding more of the float than was publicly disclosed. 

The allegations sparked international attention, amplified by the company’s perceived ties to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Although Adani shares initially fell, they later rebounded. The group dismissed the claims as an “attack on India,” and India’s market regulator, SEBI, eventually cleared the company on two specific issues, while other investigative strands have not been publicly detailed.

The investors, Nasser Ali Shaban Ahli of the UAE and Taiwan’s Chang Chung-Ling, had long-standing business links to the Adani family. Previously reported holdings in the hundreds of millions now appear far larger: internal documents from Swiss bank REYL Intesa Sanpaolo show that as recently as 2023, the two held roughly $3 billion in Adani-related investments through Dubai-based accounts. In written statements to their bank, they said their positions stemmed from personal and professional trust in the family and denied Hindenburg’s allegations.

Both men have surfaced in past Indian investigations into alleged Adani misconduct — cases that were ultimately dropped. A 2007 diamond-trading probe and a 2014 over-invoicing inquiry connected them to companies tied to Vinod Adani, the chairman’s brother. Vinod was at the heart of many Hindenburg allegations, with the firm questioning his management of overseas shell companies and alleging financial improprieties relating to potential manipulation of Adani shares.

Hindenburg also identified Chang as linked to a disclosed “related party.” Earlier reporting cited evidence that their trades were coordinated with Adani-linked entities.

OCCRP writes that Swiss prosecutors are now examining Chang on suspicion he acted as a “front man” to help insiders exceed ownership limits. More than $310 million has been frozen, though no charges have been filed. Authorities confirmed an ongoing investigation into money laundering and document forgery. The Adani Group denies any role.

Abroad, U.S. prosecutors in 2024 charged founder Gautam Adani and his nephew in a bribery case the company calls “baseless,” alongside a related SEC civil action. In India, however, consequences have been limited. The Supreme Court declined to order a separate probe, noting SEBI’s progress on “twenty-two out of twenty-four” inquiries and saying its work “inspires confidence.” In 2025, SEBI ruled certain allegations “not established,” though other matters reportedly remain pending.

Bank records show Ahli held about $2 billion and Chang about $1 billion through British Virgin Islands companies, largely invested in hedge funds likely focused on Adani stocks. After meeting bank officials in February 2023, they confirmed ownership of the accounts, rejected wrongdoing, and said they would diversify “in the short term.” The bank tightened oversight of their transactions.

In an August 2024 ruling, Switzerland’s Federal Criminal Court upheld the freeze on Chang’s funds, stating investigators must be allowed time to proceed and observing that the appellant had not provided documentation sufficient “to dispel the doubts legitimately raised.”

Ahli and Chang declined to comment. The bank cited legal restrictions on disclosure.

Meanwhile, days ago, it was announced that the reporter on the byline to this new story had been sentenced to a year for "defamning" Adani Group on X:

On February 10, a magistrate court in the western state of Gujarat convicted Nair and sentenced him to jail and a fine of 5,000 rupees (US$55) for his posts between October 2020 and July 2021 on the X platform and articles on the Australian nonprofit Adani Watch investigative site, according to a copy of the judgment, reviewed by CPJ.

Nair frequently uses social media to comment on the Adani Group, owned by billionaire Gautam Adani. The conglomerate has come under sustained scrutiny over allegations of financial irregularities, which it has denied.

Nair’s posts cited or linked to reports by established publications, including The Times of India and Bloomberg, sometimes accompanied by commentary questioning Indian government policies and the Adani Group’s environmental compliance and alleged monopolistic practices.

The case against Nair was initiated by Adani Enterprises Limited, the group’s flagship firm.

On February 10, the court concluded that the journalist’s comments and publications were defamatory and made with knowledge of their likely impact on the company’s reputation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 02:45

18 Ways To Reverse EU's Immigration Crisis And Give Power Back To Member States

Via Remix News,

Due to years of uncontrolled mass migration, many Europeans are asking what concrete options there are to reverse course, with many feeling that the situation is hopeless and cannot be significantly reversed.

However, a new report titled “Taking Back Control from Brussels: The Renationalization of the EU Migration and Asylum Policies” - produced by the Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC), Hungary’s Migration Research Institute, and Poland’s Ordo Iuris Institute - provides comprehensive solutions to the crisis.

The paper’s core thesis offers bold and practical solutions today, noting that the power still rests with member states.

The authors write: “European Union member states can reclaim effective authority over migration and asylum policy without changing the EU treaties.”

The report outlines how asylum policy has “completely collapsed” in the EU and reached a point of “total failure.” The authors contend that the current system lacks democratic legitimacy and has turned the Schengen area into a “sieve” that facilitates illegal migration and prevents effective border protection. Given the recent legalization actions of the far-left Spanish government, aimed at regularizing approximately 500,000 migrants who can then move freely across Europe, the paper’s proposals may be more relevant than ever.

The paper calls for a fundamental “paradigm shift” to restore migration sovereignty to individual nation-states, asserting that renationalization is a necessity for Europe to regain control over its borders and territory.

The following 18 proposals from the second part of the paper outline a roadmap for this renationalization. The paper itself provides far more details about each proposal and is recommended reading for any European party looking for a blueprint to regain control of immigration.

I. Opt-out and Derogations to Legal Frameworks

Grant Member States an Opt-in/Opt-out

Allow all Member States to request an individual opt-in or opt-out from the common EU migration and asylum policy, similar to the existing status of Denmark and Ireland.

Insert a “Notwithstanding Clause”

Amend the treaty to allow national parliaments to temporarily suspend EU migration rules when public order, security, or pressing national interests are at stake.

Unilaterally Disapply problematic EU Acquis

If treaty reforms are blocked, Member States should unilaterally stop applying the most problematic elements of the existing EU migration legal framework.

Withdraw from or Suspend the ECHR

Consider partial or total withdrawal from the jurisdiction of the European Court of Human Rights or temporarily suspending its application to regain border control flexibility.

Derogate from the 1967 Protocol to the Geneva Convention

Denounce this protocol to restore national flexibility and move away from “untouchable dogmas” regarding universal asylum obligations.

II. A New Migration and Asylum Paradigm

Restore National Competence for Readmission Agreements

Return the power to negotiate and conclude readmission agreements with third countries to individual Member States, as the centralized EU model has failed.

Condition EU Funding on Third-Country Cooperation

Legally mandate that EU funding to third countries be strictly conditional on their effective cooperation in migration, particularly regarding returns and readmissions.

Restore National Competence Over Returns

Grant Member States full control over the detention and expulsion of illegal migrants without interference from the EU or the European Court of Justice.

Outsource Asylum Processing to Safe Third Countries

Enable Member States to establish mechanisms to outsource the processing of asylum requests to safe third countries outside the EU territory.

Amend the Schengen Borders Code

Revise the code to eliminate legal ambiguities that currently hinder border guards and lead to “abusive” claims of refoulement.

Limit Free Movement to European Citizens

Restrict the right of free movement within the Schengen area strictly to EU citizens to prevent illegal secondary movements.

Prohibit Asylum Applications After Illegal Entry

Enact rules that bar individuals from lodging asylum claims if they have entered the Union territory illegally.

Radically Amend the Search and Rescue (SAR) Framework

Change SAR rules to ensure the duty to rescue does not equate to a right of entry and prohibit any collusion with smugglers.

Abolish EU Competence on Family Reunification and Integration

Return full control over family reunification and integration policies to national governments, arguing these areas bring “no added value” at the EU level.

Earmark EU Funding for Physical Border Infrastructure

Specifically designate European funds to finance physical barriers like fences and walls at external borders.

III. Reconsidering Civil Society and Agency Roles

Reform Frontex to Help Member States

Ensure the EU border control agency Frontex serves to assist rather than control member states and remove all NGO presence from its internal structures.

Strict Transparency and Accountability for NGOs

Subject any organization receiving European funds to rigorous rules on transparency, traceability, and accountability.

Prohibit EU Funding for Pro-Migration Organizations

Ban any direct or indirect EU funding for organizations that promote or facilitate illegal migration.

“The time for decisive action is now.”

One of the core points the paper tries to outline is that “contrary to popular belief, the EU does not possess exclusive competence in this field. While the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union provides for a common asylum policy, it does not abolish national sovereignty over border control, internal security, or the determination of who may enter and remain on national territory.”

In other words, there is an extraordinary amount that EU member states can accomplish in the area of migration policy if a determined national government is in place.

One of the authors of the report, Jerzy Kwaśniewski, an attorney and the president of the Ordo Iuris Institute for Legal Culture, said:

“Europe is facing an unprecedented legal crisis that is depriving member states of their ability to protect their own borders and citizens. After years of a common EU migration and asylum policy, the system has completely collapsed. The Schengen area has turned into a sieve through which illegal migrants move freely. Return procedures for illegal migrants are largely illusory. Meanwhile, overlapping international obligations have made effective border protection almost impossible from a legal standpoint.

To make matters worse, European taxpayers are financing NGOs that directly facilitate illegal migration and obstruct effective border control. Given the total failure of the European Union’s common migration and asylum policy, further reforms within the current EU framework are no longer possible. A fundamental paradigm shift is needed — the restoration of migration sovereignty to nation-states, which alone possess the democratic legitimacy to decide who has the right to enter and reside on their territory.

He added that “the renationalization of migration policy is no longer an option; it is a necessity. The alternative is a complete loss of control over Europe’s borders and the definitive end of our ability to manage our own territory. The time for debate is over. The time for decisive action is now.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 02:00

EU Investigates Shein Over 'Addictive Designs' And Sales Of Childlike Sex Dolls

Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The European Union has opened an in-depth investigation into online fashion retailer Shein over the sale of illegal items and what it calls the Chinese-owned platform’s “addictive design.”

A Shein pop-up store at a mall in Singapore, on April 4, 2024. Edgar Su/Reuters

The probe, announced on Feb. 16 by the European Commission, marks the bloc’s first formal proceeding against the company under the Digital Services Act (DSA), a set of sweeping online regulations that governs nearly all corners of the digital ecosystem, from e-commerce platforms to social media networks.

Brussels said it is investigating the sale of illegal products “including child sexual abuse material,” citing in particular child-like sex dolls that were found on Shein’s marketplace. The company came under scrutiny in France in late 2025 after authorities discovered lifelike sex dolls resembling young girls on the site, along with illegal weapons. The French government moved to suspend access to Shein’s website, but a court blocked the move and instead asked Brussels to step in under the DSA.

The controversy, EU officials said, exposed broader concerns about whether Shein poses “a systemic risk for consumers across the entire European Union.” They have asked the company to provide information on how it ensures that minors are not exposed to age-inappropriate content, as well as how it prevents the circulation of illegal products on its platform.

Investigators will also look into Shein’s “addictive design,” including the use of gamified features such as points, rewards, and other incentives for frequent engagement. EU officials have said that such designs may encourage excessive use, particularly among younger users, and undermine consumer protection and users’ mental well-being.

Another focus of the inquiry will be the alleged “lack of transparency” around the algorithms Shein uses to recommend content and products to users. Under the DSA, “very large platforms,” defined as those with over 45 million users in the EU, must disclose the main parameters of their recommender systems and offer at least one easily accessible option that is not based on profiling.

A spokesperson for Shein said the company takes its “obligations under the DSA seriously” and will cooperate with investigators.

“Over the last few months, we have continued to invest significantly in measures to strengthen our compliance with the DSA. These include comprehensive systemic-risk assessments and mitigation frameworks, enhanced protections for younger users, and ongoing work to design our services in ways that promote a safe and trusted user experience,” the spokesperson said in a statement to The Epoch Times.

The investigation is the latest in a series of actions the EU has taken that affect Chinese-owned tech and e-commerce firms.

From July 1, 2026, Brussels will begin collecting a flat 3-euro (about $3.55) charge on each low-value item in small parcels worth under 150 euros (about $178) sent directly from non-EU countries to consumers in the bloc, a measure widely seen as aimed at platforms such as Shein, Temu, and AliExpress. According to official figures, about 4.6 billion such parcels entered the EU in 2024, an overwhelming 91 percent of them from China.

Temu is also under DSA investigation over alleged “addictive design” and the sale of unsafe or illegal goods. A separate probe into AliExpress, owned by China-based e-commerce giant Alibaba, produced preliminary findings that the platform is “in breach of its obligation to assess and mitigate risks related to the dissemination of illegal products under the DSA.”

More recently, on Feb. 6, the commission warned popular video-sharing platform TikTok that it must overhaul its “addictive design” to comply with the DSA. The service, whose European operations are owned by Chinese firm ByteDance, could face a fine of up to 6 percent of its global revenue if it fails to address those concerns.

“In the EU, illegal products are prohibited—whether they are on a store shelf or on an online marketplace. The Digital Services Act keeps shoppers safe, protects their well-being and empowers them with information about the algorithms they are interacting with,” Henna Virkkunen, the EU tech commissioner, said on Feb. 17.

Chinese authorities have been critical of EU efforts to tighten digital regulations. In January, the Chinese Foreign Ministry accused the EU of “blatant protectionism” and “political manipulation” after the bloc, citing risks of cyberattacks, recommended that all member states remove Huawei and ZTE from their telecom networks within the next three years.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/17/2026 - 23:25

WEF Rocked As CEO Faces Investigation Over Ties To "Davos Concierge" Epstein

The World Economic Forum (WEF) quietly launched an independent review earlier this month into its CEO, Børge Brende, over his past interactions with Jeffrey Epstein, Bloomberg reports.

Files released by the Department of Justice show Epstein and Brende had three dinners in 2018 and 2019, and exchanged various text messages. One dinner occurred in September 2018, more than a decade after Epstein's 2008 conviction and guilty plea in Florida for procuring a child for prostitution, and another on June 13, 2019, shortly before Epstein's final arrest on federal sex-trafficking charges.

Like many powerful figures, Brende has claimed that he was unaware of Epstein's criminal history at the time of their meetings, and is said to have ordered the probe into his communications with Epstein.

"I was completely unaware of Epstein’s past and criminal activities," Brende said in a statement to Bloomberg. "Had I known about his background, I would have declined the initial invitation and any subsequent dinner invitations or other communications.”

"I recognize that I could have conducted a more thorough investigation into Epstein’s history, and I regret not doing so,” he added.

Klaus Schwab, who founded the WEF in 1971, has maintained that he is “certain” that he never met with Epstein, a press representative told Bloomberg.

Beyond Brende's direct contacts, the released files highlight Epstein's broader efforts to leverage the prestige of the WEF's annual Davos meeting. Despite reportedly claiming to "hate" the Forum in private, Epstein positioned himself as a self-described "Davos concierge" to facilitate access for his associates.

For instance, in late 2009, months after his release from Florida incarceration, Epstein corresponded with Boris Nikolic, an immunologist and regular Davos attendee, offering to arrange one-on-one meetings. "I can organize a 1:1 meeting with most people there. One 'virtual currency' I have is access ;)," Epstein wrote while sharing a participant list, according to Bloomberg.

In 2011, Nikolic turned to Epstein for help securing time with Bill Gates, lamenting the difficulty of reaching the billionaire. Epstein suggested pitching Gates on attending a dinner, listing potential attendees, and signed off as "your truly, the davos concierge.”

UK broadcaster Channel 4 News reported that the Justice Department has so far released 3.5 million files, amounting to more than 300 GB, representing roughly only 2 percent of the total data volume that investigators referenced as recently as last year. Internal emails indicating that federal investigators expected to handle between 20 and 40 terabytes of data seized from Epstein's properties, the report said.

Earlier estimates from 2020 put the total volume of files at up to 50 terabytes. More recently, in 2025, officials referred to approximately 14.6 terabytes of archived data under review.

The release of additional Epstein-related documents by the Department of Justice continues to draw attention to a range of high-profile individuals from business and politics, whose names appear in the files.

Thomas J. Pritzker, the longtime executive chairman of Hyatt Hotels Corporation, announced his immediate retirement on Monday and confirmed he will not seek re-election to the company's board.

In a statement to the board and released publicly, Pritzker expressed regret over his past association with Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell. Pritzker described maintaining contact as "terrible judgment" and acknowledged there was no excuse for not distancing himself sooner.

“I condemn the actions and the harm caused by Epstein and Maxwell, and I feel deep sorrow for the pain they inflicted on their victims,” he added.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/17/2026 - 23:00

Google Warns Chinese And Russian Hackers Are Targeting US Defense Companies

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

An analysis released by Google this month showed that the U.S. defense industrial base—a network of public and private entities used to develop or maintain military weapons systems—has sustained cyberattacks from groups and criminal organizations from China, Russia, and North Korea in recent months.

The report, released on Feb. 10 by Google Threat Intelligence, found that the Chinese regime and associated groups continue “to represent by volume the most active threat to entities in the defense industrial base,” which it said can pose “significant risk to the defense and aerospace sector.”

Google’s report added that it “has observed more China-nexus cyber espionage missions directly targeting defense and aerospace industry than from any other state-sponsored actors over the last two years,” as such groups have “used a broad range of tactics in operations.”

“But the hallmark of many operations has been their exploitation of edge devices to gain initial access,” it said, referring to hardware components positioned at the edge of a network.

“We have also observed China-nexus threat groups leverage ORB networks for reconnaissance against defense industrial targets, which complicates detection and attribution.”

Late last year, Canadian and U.S. officials warned that Chinese state-backed hacking groups have targeted U.S. government entities and private companies, gaining long-term access to their systems.

In July 2025, Microsoft also warned it had observed two China-based hacking groups, Linen Typhoon and Violet Typhoon, using vulnerabilities in SharePoint, Microsoft’s collaboration software.

As for Russia, Google said in its report that groups associated with Moscow have focused on defense companies that support technologies used in the Russia–Ukraine war, namely companies linked to drones.

“As next-generation capabilities are being operationalized in this environment, Russia-nexus threat actors and hacktivists are seeking to compromise defense contractors alongside military assets and systems, with a focus on organizations involved with unmanned aircraft systems (UAS),” the tech giant said.

“This includes targeting defense companies directly, using themes mimicking their products and systems in intrusions against military organizations and personnel.”

State-sponsored hackers, meanwhile, have leveraged Google’s own AI tool, Gemini, during cyberattacks, it found.

One Chinese-linked organization known as “UNC2970” has frequently targeted defense companies and impersonated corporate recruiters in hacking campaigns, Google said.

They’ve used Gemini to conduct open-source intelligence to “profile high-value targets to support campaign planning and reconnaissance,” including searches for relevant information on defense and cybersecurity companies, it said.

The threat posed by North Korea has grown since 2019 as officials in the regime have attempted to pose as IT workers to apply for jobs at defense-related organizations, Google said.

Last July, the Department of Justice announced it had disrupted an operation that included searches of 29 locations in more than a dozen states suspected of being connected to laptops used, in part, to obtain remote jobs at more than 100 American companies.

In one instance, North Korea-linked actors stole sensitive data from a California defense company that was involved in AI development, according to Google.

In a separate incident, a Maryland-based individual was sentenced to 15 months in prison for facilitating a North Korean-linked scheme and coordinating with an alleged regime IT worker. The person, Minh Phuong Ngoc Vong, was hired by a Virginia-based company to perform software development for a defense contractor, it added.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/17/2026 - 22:35

Kansas Woman Jailed For Fabricating Claims That Astronaut Hacked Her Bank Account From Space

A Kansas woman has been sentenced to federal prison after admitting she fabricated claims that astronaut Anne McClain accessed her bank account from orbit, the U.S. Department of Justice said.

Summer Heather Worden, 51, of Sedgwick County, Kansas, pleaded guilty on November 14, 2025, to making false, fictitious, and fraudulent statements to law enforcement, according to KBTX.

Alfred H. Bennett sentenced her to three months in prison, followed by two years of supervised release, and ordered her to pay $210,000 in restitution.

Worden had alleged in July 2019 that her estranged spouse guessed her password and illegally viewed her account while stationed aboard the International Space Station. Court evidence later established the accusation was unfounded. Records showed Worden opened the account in April 2018 and that both women used it until January 2019, when she changed the login information. Investigators determined she had shared access to her banking details, including credentials, as early as 2015.

KBTX writes that even after an internal review cleared McClain, Worden continued promoting the allegations in the media, hired a consultant to amplify them, and publicly disclosed her former spouse’s personal information.

“This case demonstrates the serious consequences of making false accusations to law enforcement,” said U.S. Attorney Nicholas J. Ganjei.

The case was investigated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Office of Inspector General. Assistant U.S. Attorneys Richard D. Hanes and Brandon Fyffe prosecuted it. Worden remains free on bond and is expected to report voluntarily to a facility designated by the Federal Bureau of Prisons.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/17/2026 - 22:10

Winter Storm Fern Proved Coal Is Still the Power Grid's Reliable Backbone

Authored by Emily Arthun via RealClearEnergy,

When Winter Storm Fern swept across much of the United States in mid-January 2026—bringing snow, ice, and sustained sub-zero temperatures from Texas to New England—millions of Americans braced for power outages. In some areas, those fears were realized. Tennessee alone reported more than 245,000 customer outages at peak conditions. At the same time, natural gas prices spiked dramatically, exceeding $30 per MMBtu at certain constrained delivery points within the PJM Interconnection.

Yet despite the severity and duration of the storm, the national electric grid largely held. Hospitals remained open. Emergency services stayed online. Most homes stayed warm. That outcome was not accidental. It was the result of dependable, dispatchable generation—chief among it, coal.

During the coldest days of the storm, coal-fired generation across the Lower 48 surged, rising from roughly 70 gigawatt-hours per day to approximately 130. That additional generation represented a massive increase in available power at precisely the moment when electric heating demand spiked and system margins tightened. In practical terms, coal generation helped keep power flowing to tens of millions of households nationwide, sustaining heat and essential services during the most extreme conditions of Winter Storm Fern.

Coal plants responded exactly as they are designed to do: steadily, predictably, and at scale. In the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region, coal supplied as much as 40% of electricity during peak hours. In PJM, coal accounted for roughly one-quarter of total generation. These were not marginal contributions—they were foundational to grid stability.

The contrast with weather-dependent resources was unmistakable. Wind generation declined as turbines iced over or were curtailed for safety. Solar output fell sharply as panels were covered by snow and daylight hours shortened. Hydropower faced limitations from frozen waterways and constrained inflows. Each of these resources plays a role in the broader energy mix, but Winter Storm Fern underscored their limitations during prolonged, widespread cold.

Coal’s advantage in these moments is straightforward: on-site fuel. Stockpiled coal insulated power plants from supply chain disruptions at precisely the moment when other fuels faced constraints. This is not a theoretical benefit. It is a practical one that has been demonstrated repeatedly during extreme weather events.

That lesson should sound familiar. After Winter Storm Uri in 2021, coal was often blamed for grid failures. Subsequent analyses showed the most significant disruptions stemmed from widespread natural gas system freeze-offs—not coal plant performance. In the years since, coal facilities invested in winterization, fuel access, and operational readiness. During Winter Storm Fern, those preparations paid off.

Federal policymakers recognized this reality in real time. The U.S. Department of Energy issued emergency orders under Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act, temporarily allowing certain coal units to operate at higher output to maintain grid stability. Similar actions in 2025 prevented the premature retirement of coal plants in Colorado, Indiana, Washington, and Michigan—preserving more than 17 gigawatts of firm coal capacity that otherwise faced near-term shutdown.

These decisions were not ideological. They were driven by reliability.

Warnings from grid authorities reinforce the point. The Department of Energy and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation have both cautioned that continued coal retirements—without equivalent replacement by firm, dispatchable resources—increase the risk of outages, particularly during extreme winter conditions. At the same time, electricity demand is rising rapidly due to data centers, electrification, and industrial growth. The margin for error is shrinking.

Coal is not static. Modern coal plants operate with advanced emissions controls, improved efficiency, and increasingly sophisticated monitoring. Mining practices have evolved, and research into carbon management and advanced coal technologies continues. Coal also remains essential for steelmaking and other industrial uses, making domestic production a matter of economic and strategic importance.

Affordability matters as much as reliability. Regions that retired coal prematurely have often experienced higher electricity prices and greater exposure to fuel volatility. Coal’s stable fuel costs and on-site inventory provide a measure of price certainty that consumers increasingly lack—especially during weather emergencies, when energy costs hit household budgets the hardest.

Winter Storm Fern delivered a clear message. When the grid was under maximum stress, coal did not merely contribute—it carried a substantial share of the load. A resilient energy strategy does not eliminate reliable resources before dependable replacements are ready. It builds a diversified generation portfolio that includes coal, natural gas, nuclear, and emerging technologies, each performing the role it does best.

America’s energy future depends on reliability first. During one of the harshest winter tests in recent years, coal proved once again that it remains an essential part of keeping the lights on—and the heat running.

Emily Arthun is current CEO of the American Coal Council, she brings over twenty years of experience across the coal and hard-rock mining sectors  Prior to her role at ACC, she worked with the Women’s Mining Coalition, supporting advocacy for domestic mining. Her industry experience includes Stillwater Mining Company and Cloud Peak Energy.  She serves on the Washington Coal Club and Women’s Mining Coalition boards.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/17/2026 - 21:45

Stephen Colbert Throws Tantrum After CBS Blocks Interview Over Equal Time Concerns

Stephen Colbert threw a tantrum Monday night after CBS lawyers pulled the plug on his planned interview with Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, citing concerns about the FCC's equal time mandate. The late-night host, who has built his late-night career on partisan snark, was not happy about it.

Colbert told his audience that Talarico was "supposed to be here,” but CBS lawyers informed the production team "in no uncertain terms…that we could not have him on the broadcast." The network also instructed Colbert not to mention the situation on air, an instruction he promptly ignored with theatrical defiance.

"Because my network clearly doesn't want us to talk about this, let's talk about this," Colbert announced before launching into his grievance session.

The FCC's equal time rule requires broadcast networks to provide equal airtime to opposing political candidates. According to the Philadelphia Enquirer, the FCC hasn’t applied the rule to late-night television since 2006, when it determined that then–California gubernatorial candidate Arnold Schwarzenegger’s appearance on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno counted as a “bona fide news interview.”

But FCC chair Brendan Carr sent a notice last month suggesting talk shows should no longer qualify for this exemption. Carr argued some programs were "motivated by partisan purposes"—a claim that seems difficult to dispute given Colbert's nightly content.

Colbert fired back at the Trump-appointed FCC chair with predictable venom. "FCC you…because I think you are motivated by partisan purposes yourself," he said, before pivoting to his standard Trump material.

COLBERT on Thin-Skinned Trump’s fascist @jamestalarico ban: “Because my network clearly doesn't want us to talk about this, let's talk about this… They're trying to control what we watch, say, read — The most dangerous kind of cancel culture is the kind that comes from the top." pic.twitter.com/R2RxNJtXO8

— The Tennessee Holler (@TheTNHoller) February 17, 2026

"Let's just call this what it is. Donald Trump's administration wants to silence anyone who says anything bad about Trump on TV, because all Trump does is watch TV. He's like a toddler with too much screen time…So it's no surprise…that two of the people most affected by this threat are me and my friend Jimmy Kimmel," Colbert declared.

This accusation falls apart under scrutiny. Colbert has continued to have elected Democrats and far-left celebrities on his show without issue. In fact, he had Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro on The Late Show last month. During the interview, he blasted President Trump’s immigration crackdown in Minneapolis as “pure evil” while calling Vice President JD Vance a “sycophant” and a “suck-up.”

Shapiro’s interview didn’t trigger equal time requirements because the equal time rule applies only to a “legally qualified candidate for any public office.”

Shapiro had announced his reelection bid in Philadelphia last month, but he wasn’t officially a candidate at the time of the appearance. He only became one when Pennsylvania’s formal filing period opened Tuesday. 

But Colbert’s tantrum also ignored an obvious solution. Colbert could have simply invited the Republican U.S. Senate candidates in Texas onto the show to comply with equal-time requirements. But that would require actually giving airtime to conservatives, something Colbert apparently finds unthinkable. Instead, he chose faux martyrdom.

Carr responded to the controversy by proposing another solution: that if Colbert and Jimmy Kimmel did not want to comply with broadcast regulations, "then they can go to a cable channel or podcast or a streaming service." 

The suggestion seems reasonable given the proliferation of digital platforms, but Colbert treated it as an outrage.

"Great idea, man whose job is to regulate broadcast TV, suggest everyone just leave broadcast TV," Colbert shot back.

The interview was ultimately posted to The Late Show's YouTube page, where equal time rules do not apply. Colbert criticized CBS for what he characterized as premature compliance with an FCC notice that has not yet officially eliminated the talk show exception.

"Now, as I said, at this point, he's [Carr] just released a letter that says he's thinking about doing away with the exception for late night. He hasn't done away with it yet, but my network is unilaterally enforcing it as if he had," Colbert said.

When the audience booed CBS's decision, Colbert delivered a sarcastic jab at his own employer. "I want to assure you, this decision is for purely financial reasons," he quipped, an obvious reference to the fact that his show was cancelled because the network was losing money on the show.

The controversy reveals an awkward reality for partisan late-night hosts. Broadcast television operates under different regulatory standards than cable or streaming platforms precisely because it uses public airwaves. Equal time rules exist for a reason: to prevent networks from weaponizing access to those airwaves for political advantage.

That means Colbert's complaint essentially amounts to a demand for special treatment so that he can promote Democratic candidates without offering Republicans the same opportunity for an interview.

CBS's legal team appears to have calculated that preemptive compliance carries less risk than gambling on regulatory exemptions that may soon disappear. There’s no guarantee that Carr's proposed rule change will survive legal challenges, but networks clearly view the threat as credible enough to alter programming decisions.

Colbert, an old hand at playing the victim card, couldn’t help but frame the situation as censorship and authoritarianism. Yet, the only thing that prevented the interview from getting aired was himself and his refusal to give equal time to the Republican candidates in that election. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/17/2026 - 21:20

Judge Orders ICE Not To Re-Detain Abrego Garcia

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge has blocked U.S. Customs and Immigration Enforcement (ICE) from re-arresting Kilmar Abrego Garcia, one of the men at the center of the Trump administration’s deportation battles.

The Salvadoran national’s case attracted attention across the country, including widespread protests, after the federal government detained him in March 2025 and shipped him to El Salvador’s maximum security prison, the Terrorism Confinement Center, along with an airplane full of other deportees.

He was later returned to the United States, where he has had long-running legal battles with the administration.

U.S. District Judge Paula Xinis, who ordered the administration to facilitate Abrego Garcia’s return last year, ruled on Feb. 17 that he cannot be deported again because the federal government has not presented a feasible plan for removing him from the country.

The judge said that despite releasing Abrego Garcia, the government appeared to be making plans to re-detain him, so Abrego Garcia filed an emergency motion for a temporary restraining order to prevent being re-detained.

The court previously granted the requested order.

In the new order, the court granted Abrego Garcia’s request to upgrade the temporary restraining order to an injunction to prevent him from being re-detained.

Abrego Garcia, who entered the United States illegally more than a decade ago, had been living in Maryland when federal agents arrested him.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security takes the position that Abrego Garcia is a “violent criminal illegal alien, and MS-13 gang member,” who “belongs behind bars and off American soil.”

Abrego Garcia, who is facing separate criminal charges, denies being a member of MS-13, which has been designated a terrorist organization.

Xinis previously ordered his release on Dec. 11, 2025, finding that because the federal government had never issued a final order of removal against him, it could not detain him in order to force him from the country.

The government said in a brief last month that Abrego Garcia may be detained because an immigration judge issued an order of removal on Dec. 11, 2025, that became final on Jan. 13 of this year.

Detention after that order “does not require that the country of removal be certain in order for detention to be lawful,” the brief said.

The judge suggested the federal government is not serious about removing Abrego Garcia from the United States.

Since he secured release from criminal custody in August 2025, the government has “made one empty threat after another to remove him to countries in Africa with no real chance of success,” she said.

The judge said that, given the federal government’s maneuvering in the case, it was doubtful that Abrego Garcia would be deported in the “reasonably foreseeable future,” so he may not be re-arrested or put into immigration detention.

“Respondents have done nothing to show that Abrego Garcia’s continued detention in ICE custody is consistent with due process,” Xinis said.

In April 2025, Xinis had ordered that Abrego Garcia be returned to the United States from the prison in El Salvador.

The same month, the Supreme Court ordered that the federal government take steps to bring him back to the United States.

The government of El Salvador cooperated, and Abrego Garcia was returned to the United States in June 2025.

At the same time, Abrego Garcia is currently facing federal criminal charges in Tennessee related to the alleged unlawful transportation of undocumented aliens.

He has entered not guilty pleas to the charges.

The May 2025 indictment brought against Abrego Garcia alleges that he “conspired to bring undocumented aliens to the United States from countries such as Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Ecuador, and elsewhere, ultimately passing through Mexico before crossing into Texas.”

It alleges that Abrego Garcia and his co-conspirators obtained financial payments from the undocumented individuals for unlawfully transporting them into and around the United States.

The indictment also alleges Abrego Garcia was “a member and associate of the transnational criminal organization ... [known as] MS-13,” which it describes as “a criminal enterprise engaged in ... acts and threats involving murder, extortion, narcotics trafficking, firearms trafficking, alien smuggling, and money laundering.”

Abrego Garcia “used his status in MS-13 to further his criminal activity” over the life of the criminal conspiracy during which he and co-conspirators “knowingly and unlawfully transported thousands of undocumented aliens ... many of whom were MS-13 members and associates,” according to the indictment.

Abrego Garcia’s attorneys have called the case “baseless.”

“There’s no way a jury is going to see the evidence and agree that this sheet metal worker is the leader of an international MS-13 smuggling conspiracy,” attorney Simon Sandoval-Moshenberg said.

The Epoch Times reached out for comment to the U.S. Department of Justice, which represents federal agencies in court. No reply had been received as of publication time.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/17/2026 - 20:55