Supreme Court Rejects Alex Jones' Appeal Of $1.4 Billion Defamation Judgment

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Supreme Court on Oct. 14 rejected radio talk show host Alex Jones’s appeal of a $1.4 billion defamation judgment related to his description of the 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School mass shooting as a hoax.

The court denied the petition in Jones v. Lafferty in an unsigned order without comment. No justices dissented.

The Infowars host, who called the large civil judgment “a financial death penalty,” had argued that a judge was wrong to find him financially responsible for defamation and infliction of emotional distress without first conducting a trial regarding the allegations made by relatives of the victims.

The shooting led to the deaths of 20 first graders and six school employees in Newtown, Connecticut.

Jones filed for bankruptcy in 2022.

His attorneys told the Supreme Court that the “plaintiffs have no possible hope of collecting” the full judgment.

In a separate proceeding, Jones is appealing a $49 million judgment in a related defamation lawsuit in Texas. He allegedly failed to hand over documents sought by the parents of a Sandy Hook victim.

In the Connecticut case, the judge entered a default judgment against Jones and his business in 2021 after saying Jones had repeatedly not abided by court rulings ordering him to produce evidence.

In 2022, a jury returned a $964 million verdict against Jones. The judge later added another $473 million in punitive damages against Jones and Free Speech Systems, which is Infowars’s parent company.

In November 2024, the satirical news outlet The Onion was named the winning bidder in an auction to liquidate Infowars’ assets to help pay the defamation judgments.

But the bankruptcy judge threw out the auction results, citing problems with the process and The Onion’s bid.

 

The attempt to sell off Infowars’ assets has moved to a Texas state court in Austin.

Jones is now appealing a recent order from the court that appointed a receiver to liquidate the assets.

Some of Jones’ personal property is also being sold off as part of the bankruptcy case.

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Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 16:20

U.S. Government Adds To Bitcoin Reserve With Historic $15 Billion Seizure In Forced Labor Crypto Scam Case

The United States government has taken custody of roughly 127,271 Bitcoin, worth about $15 billion, marking the largest cryptocurrency forfeiture in Department of Justice history. The move effectively adds a massive tranche to the federal government’s strategic Bitcoin reserves following the dismantling of an alleged transnational cyber-fraud empire based in Cambodia.

The seizure stems from a sweeping federal indictment unsealed Tuesday in Brooklyn, charging Chen Zhi, 37, a U.K. and Cambodian national known as Vincent, and chairman of Prince Holding Group, with wire fraud conspiracy and money laundering conspiracy, according to a DOJ press release.

Prosecutors allege Chen and his associates “operated forced-labor scam compounds across Cambodia” that carried out “cryptocurrency investment fraud schemes, known as ‘pig butchering’ scams, that stole billions of dollars from victims in the United States and around the world.”

The DOJ release says that the seized funds—referred to in court documents as the Defendant Cryptocurrency—are now under U.S. government control. “The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York and the Justice Department’s National Security Division also filed today a civil forfeiture complaint against approximately 127,271 Bitcoin … currently worth approximately $15 billion … presently in the custody of the U.S. government,” the department stated.

Attorney General Pamela Bondi called the case “one of the most significant strikes ever against the global scourge of human trafficking and cyber-enabled financial fraud,” emphasizing that the United States will “use every tool at its disposal to defend victims, recover stolen assets, and bring to justice those who exploit the vulnerable for profit.”

According to the indictment, Prince Group’s scam operations trafficked hundreds of workers who were “confined in prison-like compounds and forced to carry out online scams on an industrial scale.” Prosecutors allege the network laundered illicit crypto proceeds using advanced “spraying” and “funneling” techniques to obscure the origins of stolen assets.

Assistant Attorney General John A. Eisenberg described Chen as “the mastermind behind a sprawling cyber-fraud empire operating under the Prince Group umbrella,” adding that the “historic forfeiture, the largest in Department history, reflect[s] our commitment to using every tool at our disposal to ensure such crimes do not pay.”

Chen remains at large. The Department of the Treasury designated Prince Group a transnational criminal organization and announced sanctions against Chen and affiliated entities. The United Kingdom also announced parallel sanctions through its Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.

The FBI New York Joint Asian Criminal Enterprise Task Force, supported by the Bureau’s Virtual Asset Unit, led the investigation. “Today the FBI and partners executed one of the largest financial fraud takedowns in history,” said FBI Director Kash Patel. “This is an individual who allegedly operated a vast criminal network across multiple continents … targeting millions of innocent victims in the process. Justice will be done."

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 14:40

GM Takes $1.6 Billion Hit As It Scales Back EV Operations

General Motors said on Oct. 14 that it will bear a $1.6 billion loss to scale back its electric vehicle (EV) operations, citing weaker expected demand following recent U.S. policy changes that ended federal EV tax credits and loosened emissions rules.

The Detroit-based automaker said its Audit Committee approved the loss on Oct. 7, covering the three months ended Sept. 30.

The company noted that the loss is part of its plan to realign EV production and factory operations to better match customer demand.

The decision was made after the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit on Sept. 30, part of a broader policy rollback under President Trump.

The credit, officially started under the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008, revised under The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, and expanded under former President Biden’s 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, had been a key driver of EV sales in the United States. Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on July 4, which set Sept. 30 as the final date for receiving EV purchase credits, effectively terminating the benefit.

“Following recent U.S. government policy changes, including the termination of certain consumer tax incentives for EV purchases and the reduction in the stringency of emissions regulations, we expect the adoption rate of EVs to slow,” GM said in a filing.

GM shares fell 2.5% in premarket trading, but have rebounded since as the broad market recovered...

As Evgenia Filimianova details below for The Epoch Times, according to the filing, $1.2 billion of the loss is related to non-cash impairments, mostly write-downs of EV assets.

The remaining $400 million will be paid in cash for contract cancellations and commercial settlements tied to EV investments.

The company said its review of EV manufacturing and battery component investments is ongoing.

“It is reasonably possible that we will recognize additional future material cash and non-cash charges that may adversely affect our results of operations and cash flows in the period in which they are recognized,” GM added.

GM noted that the costs, along with several smaller ones this quarter, will be recorded as adjustments in its non-GAAP results, which exclude one-time items from the company’s official earnings reported under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).

The automaker also said its EV realignment will not affect current Chevrolet, GMC, and Cadillac electric models, which “remain available to consumers.”

The all-electric F-150 Lightning from Ford is displayed at the Los Angeles Auto Show in Los Angeles on November 18, 2021. Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

Industry Changes

GM had previously pledged to invest up to $35 billion in electric and autonomous vehicles through 2025, aiming to transition most of its portfolio to zero-emission models later in the decade.

However, slower-than-expected consumer adoption, high production costs, and uncertain government policy have made that goal more difficult to achieve.

GM joins other automakers reassessing the EV market, including rival Ford Motor Co. Last year, Ford said it would take a $1.9 billion hit from plans that included canceling an all-electric SUV and delaying an electric pickup truck.

Despite the planned cutbacks, GM said this month that its overall sales remain strong. The automaker reported total U.S. vehicle sales of 2.2 million through the first three quarters of 2025, its fastest pace in a decade.

GM said the Chevrolet Equinox EV was the best-selling electric model outside Tesla, while its Cadillac Lyriq, Optiq, and Vistiq models all ranked among the top 10 in U.S. EV sales.

Analysts have said that the end of the federal EV tax credit “will test whether the electric vehicle market is mature enough to thrive on its own fundamentals or still needs support to expand further.”

In a Sept. 2 report, Duncan Aldred, GM’s North America president, said the company expects lower EV sales next quarter after the tax credits end on Sept. 30. He added that it may take a few months for the market to steady.

“Still, we believe GM can continue to grow EV market share,” he wrote. “We are seeing marginal competitors dramatically scale back their products and plans, which should end much of the overproduction and irrational discounts we’ve seen in the marketplace.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 14:00

1 In 3 Brown U. Freshmen Are LGBT: Survey

Authored by Jeanine Yuen via The College Fix,

About one in three Brown University freshmen say they are gay, bisexual, transgender, or one of the other numerous options, according to a recent survey by the student newspaper.

The numbers are somewhat similar to a survey two years ago, also by the Brown Daily Herald, which found 40 percent of the student body identified as LGBTQ. 

The survey garnered 733 responses, which is about half of the class of 2029.

Of the respondents, 12.8 percent said they were bisexual, five percent said they were “questioning or unsure,” six percent said they were gay or lesbian, and 1.6 percent said they were “pansexual.”

Several social scientists provided insights into the data and broader trends of LGBT identification among college-aged students.

Eric Kaufmann, a professor of political science at the University of Buckingham, said the percentages are close to 30 percent across the entire student data set, with some schools seeing 40-50 percent LGBT identification. 

Kaufmann attributed this to “female bisexuality” – a figure that has nearly doubled since the 2010s.

He previously has conducted research on trends in LGBT identification.

The social scientist says it seems the increase is linked to mental illness and social pressure.

“As the share of female bisexuals has soared, the number of them having same-sex relationships has gone down. That tells you something: it’s more of an identity than a behavior,” Kaufmann wrote in an email to The Fix. 

“And the rate is not higher among university students than non-college young people,” he said.

“So this is only  – in my view – partly connected to woke ideology and politics.” 

A quantitative social scientist who regularly comments on social issue polling and studies provided comments on why the incoming class at Brown might identify as LGBT at a smaller percentage than the student body several years ago.

“First, multiple polls have shown that younger members of Generation Z are more politically conservative than older members of Generation Z,” Professor Michael New told The Fix via email. 

“Additionally, multiple news reports indicate that this generation of young men are more religious and more likely to attend church than previous generations of young men,” the Catholic University of America professor said.

He also explained why LGBT identification might still be higher overall at Brown than other universities.

There is a strong likelihood  “students at elite universities, like Brown, are more likely to identify as LGBT than other members of their age demographic” due to higher socioeconomic backgrounds and secularity,” he said.

Research by Kaufmann, the Buckingham social scientist, has found similar results.

About 23 percent of Gen Z identifies as gay, transgender, or another sexual orientation, according to Gallup.

Gallup’s survey also revealed the average percentage of Gen Z adults identifying as LGBT to be 22.7 percent in the past two years. The average drops as they survey older generations. 

A representative for the polling company told The College Fix the differences could be because “while LGBTQ+ Americans across generations realized they were LGBTQ+ at similar ages, those in older generations came out at much later points in life than young LGBTQ+ Americans today.”

“[I]f you realize you are LGBTQ+ during an era of greater acceptance, you are more likely to self-identify as LGBTQ+ than if you came of age in a time of comparatively less acceptance,” Justin McCarthy wrote in an email to The Fix.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 13:40

French Stocks, Bonds Rally After French Premier Lecornu Compromises To Win Socialist Party Support To Avoid Ouster

Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu pulled off the impossible - for now - by suspending President Emmanuel Macron's 2023 pension reform, which raised the retirement age. The desperate political maneuvering was aimed at securing crucial support from the Socialist Party in France's National Assembly to survive no-confidence votes on Thursday, where Marine Le Pen's National Rally has vowed to try to topple him.

French bond markets rallied on the news. The 10-year yield fell seven basis points to 3.4%, the lowest since mid-August, narrowing the spread over German Bunds to 79 bps. This is one of the sharpest intraday tightening moves this year. France's CAC40 reversed most of the session's losses as it appears Macron's last-ditch effort of doing whatever it takes to avoid a snap election has paid off - for now. 

"France's CAC 40 benchmark closed the session 0.2% lower, after reversing most of the day's losses. The index had fallen as much as 1.4% in early trading. A Barclays Plc basket containing companies most exposed to French domestic risks turned positive in afternoon trading and ended up 0.7% on the day, led by gains in lender Societe Generale SA, construction company Vinci SA, and telecommunications provider Orange SA," Bloomberg EMEA Equities Managing Editor Blaise Robinson wrote in a BBG Top Live Blogs post. 

Bloomberg Opinion analyst Lionel Laurent noted, "It looks like Emmanuel Macron's last-ditch strategy of doing whatever it takes to avoid snap elections has paid off. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu appears to have clinched the support of the center-left Socialists by suspending pension reform until the 2027 presidential elections," adding, "Meanwhile, the weakened and divided center-right Republicans are also likely to back Lecornu rather than face a potential bruising at the ballot box. That'll be enough for this government to live to fight another day, and for markets to breathe a sigh of relief. Don't bet on a lasting peace, though." 

On Thursday, Lecornu's government faces no-confidence votes, backed by Le Pen's National Rally and far-left parties. After Macron's pension reform news, the Socialist Party said it would not vote to oust Lecornu. 

"I will propose to parliament that we suspend the 2023 pension reform until after the presidential election," Lecornu said. "There will be no increase in the retirement age between now and January 2028."

He continued, "Some would like to see this parliamentary crisis turn into a crisis of the regime. That will not happen thanks to the institutions of the Fifth Republic and its supporters."

Macron's grip on power has eroded since last year's failed snap elections. He has given Lecornu "carte blanche" to restore stability and end one of the worst political crises for France in years. If Lecornu loses the confidence vote on Thursday, Macron will be forced to dissolve parliament and call new elections. 

Two of Lecornu's predecessors, Michel Barnier and Francois Bayrou, have already resigned over their plans to rein in out-of-control spending, which has led to France having the largest budget deficit in the bloc. 

Suspending pension overhaul marks a major retreat from Macron's economic reform agenda, which had goals to make France "work more" to sustain growth and repair public finances.

National Rally's Jordan Bardella wrote on X, "The only common denominator of this majority without rhyme or reason, ready for all sorts of deal-making, is the fear of the ballot boxes and the fear of the people." 

À l’Assemblée nationale, des Républicains au PS, c’est l’amicale des sauveurs d’Emmanuel Macron qui se succède à la tribune.

Le seul dénominateur commun de cette majorité sans queue ni tête, prête à tous les marchandages, c’est la peur des urnes et la peur du peuple. #DirectAN

— Jordan Bardella (@J_Bardella) October 14, 2025

Bardella continued, "With the Faure-Macron pact, the Socialist Party allows the President of the Republic to pursue a policy massively rejected by the French. If there remains a bit of coherence and honor among certain PS deputies, they will have to make it known this Thursday during the vote on the motions of censure. Or accept, before history, to have turned their backs on the French people, ignored their expectations and their sufferings." 

Avec le pacte Faure-Macron, le Parti socialiste permet au président de la République de poursuivre une politique massivement rejetée par les Français.

S’il reste un peu de cohérence et d’honneur à certains députés du PS, ils devront le faire savoir ce jeudi lors du vote des…

— Jordan Bardella (@J_Bardella) October 14, 2025

All eyes on Thursday. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 13:20

Watch: Fed Chair Powell Tilts Dovish On Labor Risks, Suggests Imminent End To QT

Update (1225ET): We have an answer: Fed Chair Powell definitely erred on the side of caution about the labor market (dovish) in his prepared remarks today (see below):

"While the unemployment rate remained low through August, payroll gains have slowed sharply, likely in part due to a decline in labor force growth due to lower immigration and labor force participation," he told the conference in Philadelphia, according to prepared remarks.

"In this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market, the downside risks to employment appear to have risen," Powell said, noting that longer-term inflation expectations remained aligned with the Fed's long-term target of two percent.

"Rising downside risks to employment have shifted our assessment of the balance of risks," he said, adding there was "no risk-free path for policy as we navigate the tension between our employment and inflation goals."

Powell was asked if there is a risk of a slower burn, persistent impact on inflation from tariffs and he acknowledges that is a risk, though he returns to his focus on “pretty significant” downside risks in the labor market.

Additionally, Powell said the central bank will stop its balance sheet runoff at some point over coming months. Here are the key remarks on that point:

“Our long-stated plan is to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are somewhat above the level we judge consistent with ample reserve conditions. We may approach that point in coming months, and we are closely monitoring a wide range of indicators to inform this decision.”

Powell makes it clear the Fed doesn’t want to stoke a so called ‘taper tantrum’:

“The committee’s plans lay out a deliberately cautious approach to avoid the kind of money market strains experienced in September 2019”

Bloomberg's Ira Jersey has a first take:

“Powell’s focus at his NABE speech is on balance-sheet use. Important to us was his note that balance-sheet runoff (read: QT) could end in coming months. This isn’t surprising given our view that the ‘lowest comfortable level of reserves’ is about $2.65 trillion, and the Fed wants to keep a buffer slightly above that level.”

Powell reminded the audience of the obvious conundrum for the Fed:

“It is clear though that if we move too quickly then we may leave the inflation job unfinished, if we move too slowly there may be unnecessary losses, painful losses, in the employment market.”

Stock extended gains on the speech and rate-cut odds remained at 100% for both Oct and Dec.

*  *  *

In a govt-shutdown-driven vacuum of macro data, the words uttered by Fed Chair Powell this afternoon could be even more market-moving than normal when he speaks Tuesday before the National Association for Business Economics in Philadelphia.

This is his first major public appearance since the Fed's policy meeting last month, which exposed significant divisions among Fed officials about the timing and magnitude of future rate-cuts.

Markets will parse Powell's remarks for any hint of which side of the mandate worries him more.

If he seems focused on the labor market, investors will read it as leaving the door open to another cut or two before year-end.

A tilt toward inflation's persistence would signal a higher bar for further easing and suggest that the Fed may pause at its Oct. 28-29 policy meeting.

Powell's speech today comes not only in the absence of fresh economic data but days before the Fed enters its premeeting blackout period at the end of this week.

Investors currently see a 98% chance of another rate cut at the October meeting...

Watch Live (due to start at 1220ET):

Full Prepared Remarks below:

Thank you, Emily. And thank you to the National Association for Business Economics for the Adam Smith Award. It is an honor just to be mentioned alongside past recipients, including my predecessors Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke. Thank you for this recognition and for the opportunity to speak with you today.

Monetary policy is more effective when the public understands what the Federal Reserve does and why. With that in mind, I hope to enhance understanding of one of the more arcane and technical aspects of monetary policy: the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. A colleague recently compared this topic to a trip to the dentist, but that comparison may be unfair—to dentists.1

Today, I will discuss the essential role our balance sheet played during the pandemic, along with some lessons learned. I will then review our ample reserves implementation framework and the progress we have made toward normalizing the size of our balance sheet. I will conclude with some brief remarks on the economic outlook.

Background on the Fed's Balance Sheet

One of the primary purposes of a central bank is to provide the monetary foundation for the financial system and the broader economy. This foundation is made of central bank liabilities. On the Fed's balance sheet, the liability side of the ledger totaled $6.5 trillion as of October 8, and three categories account for roughly 95 percent of that total.

• First, Federal Reserve notes—that is, physical currency—totaled $2.4 trillion.

• Second, reserves—funds held by depository institutions at the Federal Reserve Banks—totaled $3.0 trillion. These deposits allow commercial banks to make and receive payments and meet regulatory requirements. Reserves are the safest and most liquid asset in the financial system, and only the Fed can create them. The adequate provision of reserves is essential to the safety and soundness of our banking system, the resilience and efficiency of our payments system, and ultimately the stability of our economy.

• Third is the Treasury General Account (TGA), currently at about $800 billion, which essentially is the checking account for the federal government. When the Treasury makes or receives payments, those flows affect dollar-for-dollar the supply of reserves or other liabilities in the system.

The asset side of our ledger consists almost entirely of securities, including $4.2 trillion of U.S. Treasury securities and $2.1 trillion of government-guaranteed agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS).4 When we add reserves to the system, we generally do so by purchasing Treasury securities in the open market and crediting the reserve accounts of the banks involved in the transaction with the seller. This process effectively transforms securities held by the public into reserves but does not change the total amount of government liabilities held by the public.

The Balance Sheet Is an Important Tool

The Fed's balance sheet serves as a critical policy tool, especially when the policy rate is constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB). When COVID-19 struck in March 2020, the economy came to a near standstill and financial markets seized up, threatening to transform a public health crisis into a severe, prolonged economic downturn.

In response, we established a number of emergency liquidity facilities. Those programs, supported by Congress and the Administration, provided critical support to markets and were remarkably effective in restoring confidence and stability. At their peak in July 2020, loans from these facilities totaled just over $200 billion. Most of these loans were quickly unwound as conditions stabilized.6

At the same time, the market for U.S. Treasury securities—normally the deepest, most liquid market in the world and the bedrock of the global financial system—was under extraordinary pressure and on the verge of collapse. We used large-scale purchases of securities to restore functionality to the Treasury market. Faced with unprecedented market dysfunction, the Fed purchased Treasury and agency securities at an extraordinary pace in March and April of 2020. These purchases supported the flow of credit to households and businesses and fostered more accommodative financial conditions to support the recovery of the economy when it ultimately came.7 This source of policy accommodation was important as we had lowered the federal funds rate close to zero and expected it to remain there for some time.

By June 2020, we slowed our purchase pace to a still substantial $120 billion per month. In December 2020, as the economic outlook remained highly uncertain, the FOMC said that we expected to maintain that pace of purchases "until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals."8 That guidance provided assurance that the Fed would not prematurely withdraw support while the economic recovery remained fragile amid unprecedented conditions.

We maintained that pace of asset purchases through October 2021. By then, it had become apparent that elevated inflation was not likely to go away without a strong monetary response. At our meeting in November 2021, we announced a phaseout of asset purchases. At our next meeting in December, we doubled the pace of the taper and said that asset purchases would conclude by mid-March of 2022. Over the entire period of purchases, our securities holdings increased by $4.6 trillion.

A number of observers have raised questions, fairly enough, about the size and composition of asset purchases during the pandemic recovery. Throughout 2020 and 2021, the economy continued to face significant challenges as successive waves of COVID caused widespread disruption and loss. During that tumultuous period, we continued purchases in order to avoid a sharp, unwelcome tightening of financial conditions at a time when the economy still appeared to be highly vulnerable. Our thinking was informed by recent episodes in which signals about reducing the balance sheet had triggered significant tightening in financial conditions. We were thinking of events of December 2018, as well as the 2013 "taper tantrum."

Regarding the composition of our purchases, some have questioned the inclusion of agency MBS purchases given the strong housing market during the pandemic recovery.11 Outside of purchases aimed specifically at market functioning, MBS purchases are primarily intended, like our purchases of Treasury securities, to ease broader financial conditions when the policy rate is constrained at the ELB.12 The extent to which these MBS purchases disproportionately affected housing market conditions during this period is challenging to determine. Many factors affect the mortgage market, and many factors beyond the mortgage market affect supply and demand in the broader housing market.13

With the clarity of hindsight, we could have—and perhaps should have—stopped asset purchases sooner. Our real-time decisions were intended to serve as insurance against downside risks. We knew that we could unwind purchases relatively quickly once we ended them, which is exactly what we did. Research and experience tell us that asset purchases affect the economy through expectations regarding the future size and duration of our balance sheet.14 When we announced our taper, market participants began pricing in its effects, pulling forward the tightening in financial conditions.15 Stopping sooner could have made some difference, but not likely enough to fundamentally alter the trajectory of the economy. Nonetheless, our experience since 2020 does suggest that we can be more nimble in our use of the balance sheet, and more confident that our communications will foster appropriate expectations among market participants given their growing experience with these tools.

Some have also argued that we could have better explained the purpose of asset purchases in real time.16 There is always room for improved communication. But I believe our statements were reasonably clear about our objectives, which were to support and then sustain smooth market functioning and to help foster accommodative financial conditions. Over time, the relative importance of those objectives evolved with economic conditions. But the objectives were never in conflict, so at the time this issue appeared to be a distinction without much of a difference. That is not always the case, of course. For example, the March 2023 banking stress led to a sizable increase in our balance sheet through lending operations. We clearly differentiated these financial stability operations from our monetary policy stance. Indeed, we continued to raise the policy rate through that time.

Our Ample Reserves Framework Works Well

Turning to my second topic, our ample reserves regime has proven highly effective, delivering good control of our policy rate across a wide range of challenging economic conditions, while promoting financial stability and supporting a resilient payments system.17

In this framework, an ample supply of reserves ensures adequate liquidity in the banking system, and control of our policy rate is achieved through the setting of our administered rates—interest on reserve balances and the overnight reverse repo rate. This approach allows us to maintain rate control independently of the size of our balance sheet. That is important given large, unpredictable swings in liquidity demand from the private sector and significant fluctuations in autonomous factors affecting reserve supply, such as the Treasury General Account.

This framework has proven resilient whether the balance sheet is shrinking or growing. Since June 2022, we have reduced the size of our balance sheet by $2.2 trillion—from 35 percent to just under 22 percent of GDP—while maintaining effective interest rate control.18

Our long-stated plan is to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are somewhat above the level we judge consistent with ample reserve conditions.19 We may approach that point in coming months, and we are closely monitoring a wide range of indicators to inform this decision.20 Some signs have begun to emerge that liquidity conditions are gradually tightening, including a general firming of repo rates along with more noticeable but temporary pressures on selected dates. The Committee's plans lay out a deliberately cautious approach to avoid the kind of money market strains experienced in September 2019. Moreover, the tools of our implementation framework, including the standing repo facility and the discount window, will help contain funding pressures and keep the federal funds rate within our target range through this transition to lower reserve levels.

Normalizing the size of our balance sheet does not mean going back to the balance sheet we had before the pandemic. In the longer run, the size of our balance sheet is determined by the public's demand for our liabilities rather than our pandemic-related asset purchases. Non-reserve liabilities currently stand about $1.1 trillion higher than just prior to the pandemic, thus requiring that our securities holdings be equally higher. Demand for reserves has risen as well, in part reflecting the growth of the banking system and the overall economy.

Regarding the composition of our securities portfolio, relative to the outstanding universe of Treasury securities, our portfolio is currently overweight longer-term securities and underweight shorter-term securities. The longer-run composition will be a topic of Committee discussion. Transition to our desired composition will occur gradually and predictably, giving market participants time to adjust and minimizing the risk of market disruption. Consistent with our longstanding guidance, we aim for a portfolio consisting primarily of Treasury securities over the longer run.21

Some have questioned whether the interest we pay on reserves is costly to taxpayers. In fact, that is not the case. The Fed earns interest income from the Treasury securities that back reserves. Most of the time, our interest earnings from Treasury holdings more than cover the interest paid on reserves, generating significant remittances to the Treasury. By law, we remit all profits to the Treasury after covering expenses. Since 2008, even after accounting for the recent period of negative net income, our total remittances to Treasury have totaled more than $900 billion. While our net interest income has temporarily been negative due to the rapid rise in policy rates to control inflation, this is highly unusual. Our net income will soon turn positive again, as it typically has been throughout our history. Of course, having negative net income has no bearing on our ability to conduct monetary policy or meet our financial obligations.22

If our ability to pay interest on reserves and other liabilities were eliminated, the Fed would lose control over rates. The stance of monetary policy would no longer be appropriately calibrated to economic conditions and would push the economy away from our employment and price stability goals. To restore rate control, large sales of securities over a short period of time would be needed to shrink our balance sheet and the quantity of reserves in the system. The volume and speed of these sales could strain Treasury market functioning and compromise financial stability. Market participants would need to absorb the sales of Treasury securities and agency MBS, which would put upward pressure on the entire yield curve, raising borrowing costs for the Treasury and the private sector. Even after that volatile and disruptive process, the banking system would be less resilient and more vulnerable to liquidity shocks.

The bottom line is that our ample reserves regime has proven remarkably effective for implementing monetary policy and supporting economic and financial stability.

Current Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy Outlook

I will close with a brief discussion of the economy and the outlook for monetary policy. Although some important government data have been delayed due to the shutdown, we routinely review a wide variety of public- and private-sector data that have remained available. We also maintain a nationwide network of contacts through the Reserve Banks who provide valuable insights, which will be summarized in tomorrow's Beige Book.

Based on the data that we do have, it is fair to say that the outlook for employment and inflation does not appear to have changed much since our September meeting four weeks ago. Data available prior to the shutdown, however, show that growth in economic activity may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected.

While the unemployment rate remained low through August, payroll gains have slowed sharply, likely in part due to a decline in labor force growth due to lower immigration and labor force participation. In this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market, the downside risks to employment appear to have risen. While official employment data for September are delayed, available evidence suggests that both layoffs and hiring remain low, and that both households' perceptions of job availability and firms' perceptions of hiring difficulty continue their downward trajectories.23

Meanwhile, 12-month core PCE inflation was 2.9 percent in August, up slightly from earlier this year, as rising core goods inflation has outpaced continued disinflation in housing services. Available data and surveys continue to show that goods price increases primarily reflect tariffs rather than broader inflationary pressures. Consistent with these effects, near-term inflation expectations have generally increased this year, while most longer-term expectation measures remain aligned with our 2 percent goal.

Rising downside risks to employment have shifted our assessment of the balance of risks. As a result, we judged it appropriate to take another step toward a more neutral policy stance at our September meeting. There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate the tension between our employment and inflation goals. This challenge was evident in the dispersion of Committee participants' projections at the September meeting. I will stress again that these projections should be understood as representing a range of potential outcomes whose probabilities evolve as new information informs our meeting-by-meeting approach to policymaking. We will set policy based on the evolution of the economic outlook and the balance of risks, rather than following a predetermined path.

Thank you again for this award and for inviting me to join you today. I look forward to our conversation.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 12:20

Dark Money British Political Operatives Interfering In American Elections

Authored by Paul Thacker via The DisInformation Chronicle,

A few years back, I kept tripping across one of the many “disinformation experts” who popped up during the COVID pandemic like mushrooms on a rotten log after a hard night’s rain. I had no clue who Imran Ahmed was, nor his Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH), but the Biden White House plucked him from obscurity to anoint him an expert on COVID vaccines and to censor their critics.

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki quoted from a CCDH report, at a July 2021 press briefing, and accused Facebook of undermining Biden’s federal vaccine policies. “There’s about 12 people who are producing 65% of anti-vaccine misinformation on social media platforms,” Psaki claimed, warning social media companies to shut down these “misinformation” accounts. One of the people targeted by that report, just happened to be a direct threat to President Biden—Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who was planning to run against Biden as the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee.

“They’re killing people,” President Biden told a reporter, leveling the charge of murder against Facebook for providing a platform for people such as Kennedy.

Intrigued, I began digging into the Center for Countering Digital Hate. In a 3,300-word investigation for Tablet, I exposed CCDH—not for being a trusted source on vaccines—but as a fraudulent political operation formed by two staffers working for the British Labour Party: Morgan McSweeney and Imran Ahmed. These two characters created CCDH and several other dark money nonprofits to install Keir Starmer as the head of Labour. Starmer is now the Prime Minister of England and Morgan McSweeney is his chief of staff. After its success in the UK, CCDH then began operating in DC and coordinating with Democrats to attack critics of the Biden administration.

Right before the U.S. elections, I released internal documents given to me by a whistleblower working at CCDH that showed the group’s goal was to “Kill Musk’s Twitter.” Co-written with Matt Taibbi, the “Kill Musk’s Twitter” article rocketed across the internet with follow stories appearing in The Spectator, Guardian, The Express Tribune, The Telegraph, UnHerd, and the Washington Post.

London-based investigative reporter Paul Holden also started looking into the Center for Countering Digital Hate beginning in 2021 when got his hands on a tranche of leaked internal Labour Party documents that were making their way around British media circles. Delving into the emails, he ran across the names Morgan McSweeney and Imran Ahmed and began piecing together their secret campaign to to push out Labour’s leftist leader, Jeremy Corbyn, and install Keir Starmer as his replacement.

Fleshing out these documents with three years of reporting, Holden has published his findings in a new book released today titled “The Fraud: Keir Starmer, Morgan McSweeney, and the Crisis of British Democracy.” News of Holden’s book has leaked to the British press, leading for calls that Morgan McSweeney be investigated for criminal activity for the scandal now called “McSweeneygate.” To run his campaign for Starmer, McSweeney lied to the British Election Commission about political donations that funded his work with Ahmed. McSweeney and Ahmed also appear to have hired private investigators to dig into Holden’s background and shut down his reporting.

Holden hails from South Africa where three of his six books were investigative bestsellers, and his last was long-listed for the Sunday Times literary prize for non-fiction. Since 2019, Holden has led Shadow World Investigation’s work on state corruption, investigating how the Gupta family looted South Africa with the help of corporations in the US, Germany, Switzerland, the UK and China.

“It’s a pretty Shakespearean story,” Holden told me, sitting on a leather sofa in his North London living room. The story begins in 2017, with Morgan McSweeney and Imran Ahmed plotting to take over the British government. McSweeney is now at the heart of that government and Ahmed has made CCDH a huge player in the States. Their overall goal: censor anyone who doesn’t share their beliefs.

“I am not for an organization trying to get the government to censor my legal speech,” Holden added.

This interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.

THACKER: I got into looking at the Center for Countering Digital Hate, when they released that “Disinformation Dozen” report that the Biden White House amplified to attack anyone critical of vaccine mandates. I looked into their background and found out that they are a British group run by a guy named Imran Ahmed who was a staffer for Labour Party members of the UK Parliament.

I just started thinking, “How does a guy from London land in DC, and pop up being quoted from the White House? That’s so unnatural.” How did you start looking into this? Who is Imran Ahmed and who is Morgan McSweeney?

HOLDEN: I was in much the same position as you. I had never heard of these people before, I would say, late 2021. I’d been given access to this phenomenal leak of documents out of the Labour Party. Initially, there wasn’t much here, but then I came across these emails about Morgan McSweeney and this organization called Labour Together.

At the time I thought Labour Together was this very anodyne, boring think tank, because that’s how they presented themselves in public

THACKER: Just so readers know, the Labour Party is like the political left, sort of similar to the Democrats. On the other side, is the Conservatives or the “Tories,” which would be like the Republicans.

HOLDEN: Yeah, so Labour is the more liberal party. But the important thing is that Morgan McSweeney and Iman Ahmad are the most centrist part of that liberal party.

THACKER: This would be the Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden wing of the Democrats. The Wall Street friendly types, who now line up behind Big Pharma and the defense contractors.

HOLDEN: Yes. They are part of a centrist establishment really, and they are at constant, non-stop war with the more left-wing parts of the Labour Party.

Imran Ahmed, has got a bit of an odd backstory. He comes from Manchester. He was a banker for a while and then, according to his own sort of personal biographies, 9-11 changes his thinking, makes him realize that bullying is bad. He then goes back to university and studies politics at Cambridge, and then disappears, for like six or seven years. We don’t really know what he does in this period of time. He’s only ever said in one interview that he was doing management consulting in the Middle East.

He re-emerges in 2011, and goes to work for a Member of Parliament for free. That begins a five, six, seven-year career in the Labour Party. He also works a little bit, as far as I can make out, on Sadiq Khan’s mayoral campaign for London in around 2015.

He then goes to work for or this MP called Hilary Benn. And this is where it becomes important, because in 2015 Jeremy Corbyn is elected leader of the Labour Party.

THACKER: Imran does have a weird backstory. I reported for Tablet that Imran told a close friend that he had applied to work for British intelligence. But Imran won’t address his ties to British intelligence.

So Jeremy Corbyn becoming head of the Labour Party would be like Bernie Sanders becomes head of the Democratic Party.

HOLDEN: Right. Corbyn became the Labour Party’s candidate to be the Prime Minister. When Bernie Sanders was close to becoming their candidate for President, the establishment Democrats made sure he couldn’t win.

That pretty much happens to Jeremy Corbyn, as well.

THACKER: There was one crazy point in which Bernie Sanders was actually being accused of being anti-Semitic, and he’s Jewish. It was crazy.

HOLDEN: For somebody like Iman Ahmad, the Corbyn victory is anathema to him. He is not from that faction of Labour, and he doesn’t like Jeremy Corbyn. Also, Jeremy Corbyn will be a threat to his own political and career ambitions in the Labour Party.

I’ve spoken to loads of people in the Labour Party, and people suspect that Imran Ahmed is a key source of leaks against Jeremy Corbyn. In the leaked Labour Party documents, I start to see emails of Ahmed working with journalists. He’s clearly got a taste for briefing stories.

Around the time Corbyn wins, he goes and works for another Labour MP called Angela Eagle who is anti-Corbyn. For a brief period of time, there is a sense that Angela Eagle may even challenge Jeremy Corbyn to be leader of the Labour Party.

The Labour Party documents that I’ve seen show Imran Ahmed is trying to protect Angela Eagle from the possibility that her own constituents might vote her out. He is working to make the left wing seem like they’re a bunch of thugs. He’s also railing against small... independent journalists and small independent media outlets who are fact-checking these claims he stirring up in the press.

THACKER: So Imran doesn’t like people like me.

HOLDEN: He doesn’t like people like you and me. He worked with the big media outlets, seeding stories into the mainstream, that are then being fact-checked by these smaller outlets.

Everyone believes Jeremy Corbyn is going to crash and burn, but in 2017 there’s a general election and Jeremy Corbyn gets the Labour Party’s best vote since Tony Blair. Suddenly it’s like, “Oh shit, Corbyn is actually electable!”

For people like Morgan McSweeney and Imran Ahmed, this is the moment where they’re at the weakest in the party. And they’ve got to do something about that.

THACKER: When Corbyn was potentially going to become Prime Minister, one of his supporters is actor, Mark Ruffalo. Now Ruffalo is on social media supporting Imran Ahmed, who helped kill Corbyn, because Ruffalo is too stupid to realize who Imran Ahmed really is.

HOLDEN: I feel genuine sorrow for Mark Ruffalo. He doesn’t strike me as a bad-faith individual, but I do think that if he knew what Iman Ahmad was doing then and what he’s been doing behind the scenes now, he would be deeply upset by it.

THACKER: Many people just don’t know who Imran Ahmed really is.

HOLDEN: Right. So in 2017, Morgan McSweeney comes in. He’s originally from Ireland and starts working for the Labour Party in 2003, 2004. His first job is working under Peter Mandelson, on rapid rebuttal press. But he then becomes very close friends with Steve Reed, who’s now in a very senior position in the Labour government.

Back then, McSweeney’s primary focus is local politics, like South London stuff. But in 2015, he is the campaign manager for an MP called Liz Kendall who was standing against Jeremy Corbyn. Well, she gets trounced.

So McSweeney is part of a Labour Party faction that is pretty marginal in voter numbers but is quite powerful with media access. In 2017, McSweeney left local government issues behind and joins Labour Together. Labour Together was formed to unite the conservative and liberal factions, so the party could focus on beating the Conservatives.

THACKER: So Labour Together’s original concept was to stop the left and the right factions, to stop the squabbling. But then McSweeney changes this?

HOLDEN: Exactly. McSweeney sets about doing the exact opposite of bringing Labour together. Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party got around 40% of the vote in 2017. A huge number.

McSweeney is like, “Okay, we need to go about undermining this, undermining Jeremy Corbyn’s chance of success.” McSweeney writes this briefing document for Labour Together, which plots a path to, first of all, destroy Corbynism from within the Labour Party. Second, identify somebody to replace Jeremy Corbyn, who is eventually Keir Starmer, who’s now the Prime Minister.

Now, we only learned this year about the document McSweeney wrote in 2017. McSweeney is essentially the reason we have Keir Starmer as Prime Minister.

One of things McSweeney identifies back in 2017 is that the Corbyn movement has produced this really vibrant, pretty powerful, economically successful left-wing media ecosystem. It’s independent of the mainstream media, and outside of McSweeney and Ahmed’s ability to control. They can’t control the narrative.

From 2018 onwards, McSweeney and Ahmed start working together full-time. According to one recent retelling, there’s only four people who are allowed in Labour Together’s office: two young staffers, Morgan McSweeney and Imran Ahmed.

A main objective was destroying media aligned with Jeremy Corbyn.

THACKER: You’ve got Morgan McSweeney and Imran Ahmed feeding stories to the Jewish Chronicle, The Guardian, The Telegraph, and the other big outlets. I know they helped to tank the Canary. Who else threatened them?

HOLDEN: Their main threat was the Canary and the other one, it’s slightly smaller, is Evolve Politics. The most important thing is that there’s a huge social media network that supports Corbyn, and a lot of that content was driven by the Canary’s reporting. By 2019 the Canary had published thousands of articles and had around 25 full-time staff.

The Canary has an editorial line, which is basically left wing, and their tone is a bit tabloidy, but they’re a legit media organization with good investigative journalists. And they were fact-checking other papers who basically running stuff likely planted by Ahmed and McSweeney.

People have now written about how, back in 2018 or 2019, Morgan McSweeney was just obsessed with the Canary. Wouldn’t shut up about it. There’s a quote that’s been published in a book by a former Guardian editor where McSweeney says, “It’s like, unless we destroy the canaries, they’re gonna destroy us.

And that’s the thing I think is so interesting about the story. That 2017 McSweeney document I told you about, about how he wanted to destroy the Labour from within, they couldn’t do that openly. They had to do it in secret. They made Labour Together look in public like this friendly cross-faction of kumbaya, “Let’s all meet and discuss our differences….” It’s actually this viciously factional organizations They basically run a misinformation campaign.

THACKER: From the beginning, McSweeney and Ahmed are operating Labour Together with all these hidden groups to attack anything that threatened their idea of what is true. And yet their whole tactic was to say, “You’re misinformation! You’re wrong!”

Their whole game is to pretend they’re stopping misinformation; what they’re actually doing is spreading misinformation to attack anyone who has an independent thought that differs from their own.

HOLDEN: It’s so messed up. It takes a long time for even me to realize, pull back and start understanding. From 2017 they establish a campaign of misinforming the public about who they are and what they’re doing. There’s also the issue of the money.

They’re taking in loads of money and they’re not reporting it to the Electoral Commission. They’re actually funded by close to a million pounds in donations from very political figures. That’s not known to the public at the time either.

They launch the “Stop Funding Fake News” SFFN campaign in March 2019 pretending they’re just a bunch of grassroots activists. It’s all about “We don’t want to reveal our identity, we’re just people who are committed to the truth and fighting hate.” But nobody knows at the time it’s actually Morgan McSweeney and Imran Ahmed—a Labour Party spin doctor. Nor that this campaign is supported by Steve Reed, who at the time was an MP and is now in Starmer’s cabinet.

They present themselves as grassroots. They’re actually this collection of very well-connected political figures who are funded with huge amounts of money from undeclared donors.

THACKER: They were also going after Breitbart in the UK. Breitbart is an American conservative media outlet affiliated with Steve Bannon at one time. Meanwhile, Stop Funding Fake News is telling the media, “We’re scared to tell you who we are, because then we’ll be attacked.”

Yet they attacked and condemned at will, anonymously—without disclosing who was funding them—anyone who dared express opinions they didn’t like. You don’t need to like a conservative Breitbart or a liberal Canary to know that people have a right to have those particular point of views without being attacked relentlessly by some dark money outfit like Imran Ahmed and Morgan McSweeney.

HOLDEN: The fundamental issue is transparency. They were pressuring outlets reporting their opinions and ideas and then destroying them without any way of answering back. McSweeney and Ahmed were really successful against the Canary, cutting their advertising revenue. They still struggle at the Canary as a result.

But as it was happening the Canary they can’t do anything about it because they don’t know who’s attacking them. If the editors could have pointed out, “Look, this is just Morgan McSweeney and Imran Ahmed, they don’t like us.” That would have been it.

But there’s also a legal dimension. If you don’t know it’s McSweeneyy Ahmed defaming you with anonymous accounts, you can’t sue them. On social media, there were times when Evolve Politics would ask, “Who are you? Stop this. I wanna send you a cease and desist letter, because you’re lying about us and affecting our ability to earn our income.”

There was no way of taking that legal action.

Stop Funding Fake News was not this heroic campaign to end disinformation and hate, because if you actually check their factual claims, they really don’t stand up. It was basically a misinformation campaign that’s no different from what Russia does. Hidden money for undisclosed political purposes, attacking people to create chaos.

Morgan McSweeney destroyed the Canary as a way of also destroying Corbynism, so that he can then select the next person to lead the Labour Party—so that person can be the next Prime Minister. It’s a misinformation campaign that succeeds in ways probably no other misinformation campaign has ever succeeded.

THACKER: Why is the media ecosystem in the UK is so weird. Why were they so incurious when they’re being contacted by McSweeney and Ahmed? Why would they go and quote the crap McSweeney and Ahmed were throwing around, without disclosing who they are being contacted by? The British media was complicit in this misinformation campaign.

HOLDEN: That is an incredibly good question to be asking of the British media ecosystem. It’s really genuinely crazy that, in certain instances, we’ve only found out this year about articles Morgan McSweeney and Imran Ahmed were placing back in 2018. That’s a mad situation to be in.

I’m generalizing very broadly, because there’s caveats here, but generally speaking the mainstream British newspapers set the news agenda and are pretty hostile to the politics of Jeremy Corbyn. They were pretty happy to be taking stuff from a campaign that was undermining him.

There was also a conflict of interest. The Canary was successful and taking readers from other platforms. And the Canary often had this very aggressive, confrontational approach to mainstream media outlets. If the BBC published something and they thought there were errors in it, they would call that out, “Hey BBC, you’ve made a mistake. BBC is biased.”

THACKER: The British media was complicit in this misinformation campaign. And they did it for politics and for financial reasons to kill off critical competitors.

HOLDEN: Also, 2019 was this insane period of reporting in the UK. There was hysteria around the possibility that Jeremy Corbyn can be prime minister. Imagine if Bernie Sanders had a real chance to be the Democratic candidate for president. There would be loads of stuff happening in the same way that when Trump became the Republican candidate.

THACKER: This hysteria around Trump is still happening. Half the time you read stuff about Trump … I don’t know if it’s true or not. Like that’s the whole problem. I don’t mind reading things that are negative about Trump, if they’re true, but so many times . . . .

We had years of some bullshit story that there was possibly a pee-tape that was secretly recorded with Trump and prostitutes in Russia. Nonsense crazy stuff, with Trump and Putin plotting to take over America. The reporters at the New York Times who did much of this nonsense reporting then won a Pulitzer.

We have Trump Derangement Syndrome. You have Corbyn Derangement Syndrome (CBS) in the UK?

HOLDEN: That’s a pretty good way of putting it. What it’s taught me, and should teach everyone if you want to learn lessons from it: you have to read all your media against the grain. You’ve got to be checking constantly. You’ve gotta have a wide range of sources because everybody makes mistakes.

Reporting that’s presented as established fact by the mainstream media is often, years later, found to be problematic.

THACKER: Read wisely. Read widely.

HOLDEN: Right. The proper approach is to be skeptical about everything you read. You should be skeptical of me; you should be skeptical of you. People should be skeptical of the Times and the New York Times. They should also be skeptical of the Canary. Read things carefully.

You have moments where it’s accepted that a fact has been established by the mainstream media. And if you challenge that fact, or you question that fact in any meaningful way, you’re immediately seen as falling outside of the acceptable commons for discussion.

Yet independent media are often the ones who push at a topic and then reveal the truth.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 09:45

Ford Cuts Production Of Even More Vehicles After Aluminum Supply Shock 

The fallout from the Novelis aluminum mill fire in Oswego, New York, which shut the plant down until early next year, continues to worsen for Ford Motor. The automaker is now preparing to scale back production of at least five models amid a tightening aluminum supply crunch. 

The Wall Street Journal reports that production of its three-row SUVs, the Expedition and Lincoln Navigator, at the Kentucky Truck Plant has been reduced due to "difficulties with aluminum supply." 

Here's more from WSJ:

To preserve aluminum supply, Ford also stopped work at its other assembly plant in Louisville, Ky., last week, according to a UAW official, resuming this week with only one of two shifts operating. That plant is in the final months of producing the Escape SUV and its luxury cousin, the Lincoln Corsair. The Escape will end production in December, the official said, as Ford prepares to build a new electric pickup at the Louisville plant. Ford this week is also idling its Dearborn, Mich., plant that produces its current electric pickup, the F-150 Lightning, because of the aluminum issue, Reuters reported last week.

AutoForecast Solutions analyst pointed out, "They're focusing all their energy on making sure all their F-150s get built." 

However, a United Auto Workers member at the Kentucky plant wrote in a Facebook post that producing the Super Duty pickups "may run short today, tonight, and possibly over the next few shifts."

Some context about the Novelis fire at its Oswego plant: A Sept. 16 fire destroyed the building housing the hot mill, rendering the plant inoperable until at least early 2026. This part of the facility is where sheet aluminum used by the auto industry is produced. It supplies 40% of all aluminum sheet used by U.S. automakers, making it a very critical production node for America's auto industry. WSJ noted that Ford is the mill's largest customer. 

Last week, Evercore ISI analyst Chris McNally wrote in a note to clients, "We believe this is largely a Ford issue, at this time being, although we are continuing to check knock-on effects for [Stellantis] and Toyota as well," adding, the disruption at the Dearborn plant will generate a $500 million to $1 billion hit to Ford's EBIT.

Ford shares have dropped about 10% on the Oswego fire and the resulting production cuts or halts of five vehicle lines. Year-to-date, shares are up 16.5%. 

While entirely unrelated, it's worth noting that Ford's production woes come at a time when cracks have begun to appear in the subprime auto credit markets.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 09:25

Futures Slide As Trade War Jitters Return, Q3 Earnings Begin, Powell Speaks

The market rollercoaster continues: after Monday's faceripping bounce, US equity futures are lower again led by tech, part of a global risk-off tone as the US/China trade war returned after Beijing vowed to “fight to the end” in the tariff and trade war, while acknowledging that the door for negotiation is open and trade talks between the two countries had resumed yesterday. Beijing also imposed curbs on the American units of Hanwha Ocean, one of South Korea’s biggest shipbuilders, as it targets US measures against the Chinese shipping sector. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.9% and near session lows as market may be reading the latest response by China as an ‘escalate to de-escalate’ ahead of the Trump / Xi mtg later this month. Nasdaq 100 futs were 1.1% lower with all members of the Magnificent Seven sliding in premarket trading, while European stocks slipped 0.7%. Bond yields are lower as the curve bull steepens, pushing 10Y yields briefly below 4.0%, with USD flat as the bond market returns from holiday. In addition to MegaCap Banks we have the Small Business Survey which printed below estimates, and where the section on hiring plans will be under scrutiny given the gov’t shutdown. The biggest highlight of the session is Fed Chair Powell speaking on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at 12:20pm ET.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower (Nvidia -1.8%, Tesla -2.5%, Alphabet -1.6%, Apple -0.7%, Microsoft -0.7%, Meta -1.4%, Amazon -1.4%). 

• Cryptocurrency-linked stocks slide amid a drop in Bitcoin prices following a flare-up in trade tensions between the US and China.
• US-listed critical mineral companies are extending gains after China hits US with more retaliatory measures on the shipping industry, a sign of persistent trade tensions between the two economies.
• Astria (ATXS) shares rose 30% following a brief halt after BioCryst announced plans to buy the biopharmaceutical company.
• Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) shares gain 1.9% after the restaurant chain reported total domestic stores comp sales growth for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• General Motors Co. (GM) falls 1.8% as the company is incurring $1.6 billion in charges related to paring back electric-vehicle production plans, underscoring the toll on US carmakers from flagging federal support for plug-in vehicles.
• Polaris (PII) climbs 8% after saying it will separate Indian Motorcycle into a standalone company and entered a definitive agreement to sell a majority stake to Carolwood LP.
• Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) jumps 24% after unveiling its 100 V GaN FETs, 650 V GaN and high voltage SiC devices for Nvidia’s 800 VDC AI factory architecture.
• Rayonier Inc. (RYN) and PotlatchDeltic Corp. (PCH) agreed to combine their businesses, creating a major US timberland owner and lumber manufacturer with a market capitalization of $7.1 billion. Rayonier +1%, PotlatchDeltic +5%
• T-Mobile (TMUS) shares rise 1% after RBC raised the stock to outperform as the firm expects the telecom operator to see stronger subscriber growth versus wireless peers in the short term.
• Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) climbs 2.6% after raising a key profitability metric, giving its first major update about the bank’s next growth target after the removal of regulatory restraints it had operated under for more than seven years.

Global equities retreated after China upped the ante in its trade standoff with the US, stirring fresh concerns over tensions between Beijing and Washington at a time when stocks look stretched after a relentless rally. Besides hammering global stocks and marking a third day of wild stock swings, the latest standoff also sparked a rally in global bonds as investors pulled back from risk, sending the 10-year US Treasury yield down two basis points to 4.01%. Gold swung between gains and losses, while silver dipped after hitting a record over $53/oz.

“The sharp reversal shows how quickly sentiment can shift,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. “With elevated valuations already making markets vulnerable, expect continued volatility.”
Traders’ attention is also turning to the unofficial start of earnings season. JPMorgan fluctuated premarket after beating estimates for trading and investment-banking fees. Goldman Sachs fell despite posting record third-quarter revenues, on concerns about rising expenses.

Alongside renewed trade concerns, the surge in AI stocks is stoking bubble fears. In the October edition of BofA's Fund Manager Survey survey, 54% of investors think there’s a bubble in the sector with concerns over global equity prices also at a record.

Bank earnings will be key for market direction later, with Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan all reporting this morning. Fed’s Powell is due to speak at 12:20pm ET, and his commentary will be crucial amid a lack of hard data.

Going back to the AI story that has rescued the market from other dips, BBG warns that it may be losing steam. Samsung shares fell, despite the company reporting its biggest quarterly profit in more than three years, with some investors cashing in on its recent AI-mania fueled gains. 

In other assets, cryptocurrencies continued to lose ground after a historic round of liquidations that triggered a sharp selloff over the weekend, with Bitcoin slumping as much as 3.7%. Oil fell after the IEA raised its estimate for a record oversupply.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 falls as much a 1% after a broadly negative Asian session. European stocks fell on renewed trade jitters as China sanctioned the US units of a South Korean shipping giant Hanwha Ocean. Telecommunications and real estate equities are the biggest gainers, while mining and automobile shares led the declines. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Ericsson shares jump as much as 15%, the most since April 2018, after the Swedish telecommunications group beat estimates. Analysts were impressed by robust profitability and strong gross margins in the Networks divisions
• Bellway shares rise as much as 6.2%, the most in four months, as the housebuilder leaves guidance broadly unchanged and unveils a £150m share buyback program
• EasyJet shares jump as much as 11%, the most since January 2023, after a report that Mediterranean Shipping Company is considering making an offer for the budget airline, in partnership with an investment firm
• Klepierre climbs as much as 2.5% following a double-upgrade to overweight at JPMorgan, based on more positive capital growth assumptions for the French property management company
• European mining shares are the worst-performing sector in the Stoxx 600 index on Tuesday after iron ore fell from the highest since late February as some concerns over potential supply issues from new port fees in China eased
• Siemens Energy falls as much as 7.4% in Frankfurt trading, the most since April, with traders citing profit-taking in momentum stocks
• Siemens slips as much as 3.5% on Tuesday as Morgan Stanley says the firm is no longer trading at a material discount to its “theoretical sum-of-the-parts” valuation following a strong re-rating this year, and downgrades to equal-weight
• BASF shares fall as much as 2.1%, the most since August, after the chemicals company was downgraded to sell from hold and the price target lowered to €37 from €44 at Berenberg
• Michelin shares fall as much as 11%, the most since March 2020, after the French firm issued a profit warning, mainly due to much weaker performance in North America
• Bekaert drops as much as 12%, the most since March 2020, as Oddo BHF downgrades the Belgian steel-wire company to underperform from neutral, saying the strategy unveiled late in Dec. 2023 has yielded “very little.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks slipped on Tuesday, hurt by broad worries over US-China trade frictions as well as losses in Japan, where political uncertainty dragged shares lower after a long weekend. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.5%, to head for a third day of declines, with Chinese tech names Alibaba and Tencent among the biggest drags. The Hang Seng Tech Index entered a technical correction after the gauge fell more than 10% from a high on Oct. 2 following a blistering five-month rally through September. 

“China’s new tit-for-tat move against Hanwha Ocean’s US units marks another escalation in the strategic supply chain rivalry, deepening cracks in an already fragile risk backdrop,” said Hebe Chen, an analyst at Vantage Markets in Melbourne. “In essence, it reinforces the de-risking narrative.”

Australian mining companies with critical minerals projects jumped, fueled by signs of US interest in equity stakes as Trump and China intensify their strategic competition. In Japan, the Topix and Nikkei both slumped at least 2% each as trading resumed following Monday’s holiday. Japan’s governing coalition abruptly collapsed Friday in a major blow to new ruling party leader Sanae Takaichi, plunging the country into one of its biggest political crises in decades. Meanwhile, LG Electronics India soared in its Mumbai trading debut after investors flocked to the firm’s initial public offering, one of India’s biggest this year.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reverses losses to rise as much as 0.3% to its highest since Aug. 1; the pound drops 0.4% while the Aussie dollar is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, down 0.9%. Hedge funds in Asia and Europe are buying vanilla dollar call options versus a range of currencies amid a pickup in risk-off sentiment, according to European and Asian traders, BBG reports.

• USD/JPY +0.2% to 151.96 (range 151.62 - 152.61)
• EUR/USD little changed at 1.1561 (range 1.1555 - 1.1594)
• GBP/USD -0.6% to 1.3259 (range 1.3258 - 1.3353)

In rates, treasuries climb, pushing US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 4.01%. Gilts lead an advance in European government bonds after the UK unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, prompting traders to boost BOE easing bets. UK 10-year yields fall 7 bps to 4.59%.

In commodities, spot gold has recovered to add $30 after an abrupt selloff saw it briefly turn negative. Silver also fell sharply from a record and is still down 2%. Bitcoin falls 3.5% below $112,000.

Looking to the day ahead now, data releases include UK unemployment for August, the German ZEW survey for October, and the US NFIB small business optimism index for September. Central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, the Fed’s Bowman, Waller and Collins, the ECB’s Cipollone, Makhlouf, Kocher and Villeroy, BoE Governor Bailey, and the BoE’s Taylor. Finally, earnings releases include JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock and Citigroup.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.8%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -1%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.8%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.4%
• DAX -0.9%
• CAC 40 -0.7%
• 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.01%
• VIX +2.4 points at 21.47
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1217.9
• euro little changed at $1.1562
• WTI crude -2.1% at $58.23/barrel

Top Overnight News

• US Treasury secretary Bessent has accused China of trying to hurt the world’s economy after Beijing imposed sweeping export controls on rare earths and critical minerals, hitting global supply chains. Bessent told the FT that China’s introduction of the controls (3 wks before Trump/Xi meeting) reflected problems in its own economy. FT
• China added 5 US subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean to its sanctions list for allegedly co-operating with American efforts to impose punitive fees on Chinese vessels that took effect on Tuesday. FT
• Chinese rare earth magnet companies have been facing tighter scrutiny on export license applications since September, sources say, even before Beijing's move last week to expand controls over the critical minerals used in magnets. RTRS
• European Union officials called for strong measures against China after Beijing imposed fresh export restrictions on rare minerals used in computer chips and other advanced technologies. “We should have a tough response,” said Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen. BBG
• Republicans on Capitol Hill and inside the Trump administration are said to be discussing potential pathways to prevent the tax credits from expiring at the end of the year. Some members of the House GOP leadership circle are having early, informal conversations with officials from the White House Office of Legislative Affairs and the Domestic Policy Council to develop a framework for a deal: Politico
• Japanese stocks slump in Tues trading (they were closed Monday) as markets react to political uncertainty following Fri’s news of LDP’s junior partner withdrawing from the party’s coalition. Nikkei
• Crude fell after the IEA warned of a record oversupply in 2026. Supply may exceed demand by about 4 million barrels a day — 18% higher than September estimates — an unprecedented overhang in annual terms, the agency said. BBG
• UK unemployment unexpectedly rose and wage growth slowed more than forecast in the three months through August, prompting traders to boost bets on further BOE rate cuts next year. The pound fell. BBG
• EPS in full swing this morning with banks - JPMorgan beat most estimates, with both equities and FICC sales trading revenue well above expectations. Wells Fargo beat earnings and was as expected at a high level, missing on NIIs but beating on fees. BBG
• Donald Trump’s lumber tariffs take effect today, with the import duties on kitchen cabinets, upholstered furniture and other items threatening to raise renovation costs and deter new home purchases. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• China officially began special port fees for US ships, while it was earlier reported that China issued implementation rules on port fees on US ships and exempted China-made ships owned by US companies from port fees, while it is to adjust special port fees on US ships as needed.
• China's MOFCOM responded to the US saying it has proposed talks with China after rare earth restrictions, in which MOFCOM stated the US cannot have talks while threatening to intimidate and introduce new restrictions, which is not the right way to get along with China, while it urged the US to correct its “wrong practices” as soon as possible and show sincerity in talks with China. It also stated that export curbs are not an export ban and do not prohibit exports. Furthermore, it said they held working-level talks on Monday and noted that both sides have maintained communication under the framework of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism. However, MOFCOM later announced that it is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms.
• China Transport Ministry said it opened an investigation into the impact of US 301 tariffs on China's shipping industry.
• China's Commerce Ministry urges the US to correct mistakes and hopes to resolve concerns through dialogue.
• China increases oversight of export license applications for rare earth magnets, via Reuters citing sources.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed following the rebound on Wall St and with underperformance in Japanese markets as they reopened from the extended weekend and reacted to the recent US-China tariff tensions, as well as the Japanese ruling coalition split. ASX 200 struggled for direction as weakness in the financial and consumer-related sectors offset the gains in materials and miners, with the latter helped by the recent upside in metal prices and with Rio Tinto gaining following its quarterly activity update. Nikkei 225 underperformed as participants returned from the holiday closure and reacted to the recent US-China trade frictions and political uncertainty in Japan, while there were late headwinds after reports of China trade-related actions against the US. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp are lower amid the backdrop of the tumultuous trade/tariff related headlines in which the recent softening in tone by the US on China was followed by reports overnight that China's MOFCOM is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms and that China's Transport Ministry opened an investigation into US 301 tariffs impact on China shipping industry.

Top Asian News

• Monetary Authority of Singapore kept the prevailing rate of appreciation of the SGD NEER policy band, as well as made no change to the width and level at which the band is centred, as expected. MAS said it is in an appropriate position to respond effectively to any risk to medium-term price stability and MAS core inflation should trough in the near term but rise gradually over the course of 2026, while it added that Singapore’s economic growth has turned out stronger than expected and the output gap will remain positive in 2025.
• RBA Minutes from the September meeting stated the Board agreed no need for immediate reduction in the cash rate, while it added that future policy decisions are to be cautious and data dependent. RBA said the market path for the cash rate is within estimates of neutral but too imprecise to guide policy and it is important to see what Q3 data shows on the economy and supply capacity, as well as noted that policy is probably still a little restrictive, but this is difficult to determine and there are still risks on both sides for the economy.
• Japan's LDP proposes October 21st for extraordinary Diet, via FNN.
• China's Central Bank-backed Publication will continue to uphold decisive role of market in exchange rate formation and strengthen guidance of expectations.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.4%) are broadly lower across the board, with sentiment hampered by the ongoing US-China spat; overnight, China's MOFCOM announced that it is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms. European sectors hold a strong negative bias. Telecoms takes the top spot, boosted by post-earning strength in Ericsson (+13%) after it beat on profits and raised guidance. To the bottom of the pile resides Basic Resources, hampered by broader weakness in underlying metals prices. US equity futures (ES -0.8%, NQ -1.1%, RTY -0.9%) are lower across the board, following a similar theme seen in Europe. All focus today on a number of bank results, to kick off Q3 earnings seasons. BP (BP/ LN) Q3'25 Trading Statement: Upstream Production in Q3 is now exp. to be higher vs prior quarter, but flagged weaker trading into Q3. BlackRock Inc (BLK) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 11.55 (exp. 11.24), Revenue 6.51bln (exp. 6.23bln); AUM 13.464tln (exp. 13.37tln).

Top European News

• Barclays UK September Consumer Spending fell 0.7% Y/Y vs prev. 0.5% Y/Y increase in August.
• The tax elements of French PM Lecornu's draft finance bill reportedly include 30 articles, some have already been announced, but also the addition of a tax on "assets not allocated to an operational activity of property holding companies", via Playbook. Furthermore, Playbook, citing a source, reports that there is no question for the PS of "doing another round of negotiations on Wednesday, Thursday or Friday".
• The two motions of censure will be looked at on Thursday at 08:00 BST, but the Conference of Presidents on the National Assembly, via BFMTV.
• French fiscal watchdog HCFP says French government’s 2026 budget plan relies on overly optimistic economic assumptions; based on ambitious spending restraint that would be difficult to implement. France is at risk of under-delivering on spending and tax measures in 2026 budget. Budget bill includes belt-tightening measures worth over EUR 30bln, including EUR 13.7bln in taxes and EUR 17bln in spending cuts.
• French Socialist Party (PS) will not vote against PM Lecornu's government in the motions filed by LFI and RN, will instead file its own motion of no confidence in the scenario it is not satisfied with the budget proposals, via Reuters citing sources
• German Economy Ministry says current indicators do not point to economic recovery in Q3.
• Riksbank's Bunge says monetary policy must be forward looking; Inflation remains elevated, but with increased confidence that it will fall back, we were able to cut the policy rate to provide further support to the economy.
• EU Commission modifies drone wall proposals to suggest broader European drone defence initiative, via Reuters sources.

FX

• After a soft start to the session, whereby DXY was dragged lower by the haven bid into the JPY, the Greenback was able to garner support at the expense of risk-sensitive currencies and the GBP (post-jobs data). The bout of risk aversion was triggered by China's decision to take countermeasures against five US-linked firms - a move which has dashed some of the hopes seen during yesterday's session. Furthermore, a source piece in the WSJ overnight stated that "people close to the Trump administration say the US side likely will demand that China rescind, not merely delay or water down the rare-earth export rule". Focus today on US NFIB Small Business Optimism index, and speakers include Fed Chair Powell, Waller, Collins & Bowman. DXY has ventured as high as 99.47, with the next target coming via last week's peak at 99.56.
• After initially looking like it was going to make a test of 1.16 overnight, EUR/USD was dragged lower by the broader pick-up in the USD. From a macro perspective, focus in the Eurozone remains on France with PM Lecornu set to present his budget at 14:00BST, aiming to reduce the deficit to 4.7% by end-2026. In terms of the specifics, Politico reports that additional measures to those previously expected will include a tax on the richest members of society. Even with the Socialists on board, the governing coalition would still need to find additional votes in the Assembly, which looks tough given that the Far Right and Left are expected to table a no-confidence motion on Lecornu. Elsewhere in core Europe, German ZEW data showed misses for both metrics, with the current conditions component slipping further into negative territory. EUR/USD has been as low as 1.1543 and is just about holding above last week's low at 1.1542.
• JPY is the only of the majors to out-muscle the USD given its safe-haven status. JPY was supported in early European trade as investors reacted to the increase in US-China tensions overnight (see USD section for details). Subsequently, USD/JPY was dragged as low as 151.63 vs. an earlier session high at 152.61. A pick-up in the USD has since seen the pair return to a 152 handle. In terms of the macro story for Japan, it is one that remains dominated by domestic politics following the collapse of the ruling coalition. Note, the LDP party has proposed October 21st for an extraordinary Diet session.
• GBP was hit in early European trade following the latest UK labour market report, which was largely viewed with a dovish lens. Surmising the data, Pantheon Macroeconomics highlighted the unexpected uptick in the unemployment rate and the decline in 3M/YY ex-bonus average earnings, which will factor into thinking on the MPC. Elsewhere, BRC retail sales slowed to 2.0% Y/Y in September from 2.9% as consumers remain cautious in the run-up to next month's fiscal event. Cable has delved as low as 1.3255 to levels not seen since early August.
• Antipodeans are both are softer vs. the USD and at the bottom of the G10 leaderboard. In the absence of any material domestic updates, AUD and NZD remain at the whim of broader risk dynamics, which are being led by US and Chinese trade tensions.

Fixed Income

• USTs are bid, firmer by over 10 ticks to a 113-16+ high. Strength this morning comes on the back of the downbeat risk tone as China retaliates. Upside that has driven the benchmark to a fresh high for the month, with the next points of resistance at 113-21, 113-25+ and then the 113-29 September peak. Specifically, China's MOFCOM announced that it is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms and outlined that the US cannot have talks while new restrictions are being threatened. Elsewhere, the docket is packed with Fed speak via voters Bowman, Waller, Chair Powell and 2025 voter Collins.
• OATs are firmer today, in-fitting with peers. A packed agenda for French politics. The main update this morning came from the French fiscal watchdog HCFP on the 2026 budget draft, a draft that was in-fitting with overnight sources. On the draft, HCFP described it as relying on overly optimistic scenarios and ambitious spending restraint that would be difficult to implement. Perhaps most pertinently today, PM Lecornu’s General Policy Statement is scheduled for 14:00BST. The statement should take no more than 90 minutes, afterwards other party leaders can respond. It is worth highlighting that the French Socialist Party will not vote against PM Lecornu's government, and instead opt for its own motion of no confidence, if it not satisfied with the proposal.
• Bunds are bid, given the market narrative outlined in USTs. No move to final German HICP for September this morning which was unrevised. For Bunds, the morning’s main event was October ZEW. The series came in softer than expected across the board and sparked some modest upside in Bunds, though well within earlier parameters. No move to a new Schatz auction which was fairly weak.
• Gilts are outperforming after the morning’s jobs data. Opened higher by 45 ticks before climbing to a 91.81 peak with gains of 57 ticks at best. Stopping a tick shy of the 91.82 September peak; if the move continues, then there is a bit of a gap before the 92.70 August high. The morning’s data saw an unexpected jump in the unemployment rate, going against the view from the most recent MPC statement that there is less of an immediate risk that the labour market will loosen very rapidly. A point that serves as a dovish impetus. However, this is caveated on face value by the elevated wage figure (incl-bonus). Upside that the ONS attributes to the public sector, as some pay rises are awarded earlier than they were in 2024.
• Germany sells EUR 4.25bln vs exp. EUR 5.5bln 2.00% 2027 Schatz: b/c 1.4x, average yield 1.91%, retention 22.7%.
• Italy sells EUR 8.5bln vs exp. EUR 6.75-8.5bln 2.35% 2029, 3.25% 2032, 2.80% 2028, 3.85% 2040 BTP.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are trending lower as renewed trade worries, easing geopolitical tensions, and an oversupplied oil market weigh on prices. Benchmarks are steadily declining as the European session continues, with WTI and Brent currently c. USD 1.7/bbl lower and trading near lows at USD 58.20/bbl and USD 62.00/bbl, respectively.
• Precious metals extended to new ATHs during APAC trade, with XAU and XAG peaking at USD 4180/oz and USD 53.59/oz respectively, before selling off as US President Trump hints of total peace in the Middle East.
• Base metals have reversed Monday’s gains, with 3M LME Copper returning to USD 10.5k/t from a peak of USD 10.86k/t, as recent dollar strength weighs on the commodity space.
• IEA OMR: lowers 2025 world oil demand growth forecast to 710k BPD (prev. 740k BPD); leaves 2026 average oil demand growth forecast steady at 700k BPD.
• TotalEnergies (TTE FP) CEO says they are still quite bullish in medium term oil demand; CEO says there is no peak oil demand.
• US Energy Secretary Wright is set to announce the Trump administration's fusion roadmap at an industry gathering on Tuesday, via Axios citing DOE officials.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump is said to have confirmed that Israeli PM Netanyahu will not annex any part of the West Bank, according to Al Arabiya.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry says US President Trump's desire for peace and dialogue is in conflict with US hostile and criminal behaviour against Iran.
• US President Trump posts "Gaza is only a part of it. The big part is, PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST!".
• Israeli's Defence Force says several suspects were identified crossing the yellow line and approaching IDF troops operating in the northern Gaza Strip, which constitutes a violation of the agreement; troops opened fire to remove the threat, via CGTN.

US event calendar

• 8:45am: Fed’s Bowman in Moderated Conversation at IIF
• 12:20pm: Fed’s Powell Speaks on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
• 3:25pm: Fed’s Waller on Payments Panel at IIF
• 3:30pm: Fed’s Collins Speaks to the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As was looking likely in Asian trading yesterday morning, markets have recovered over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+1.56%) last night bouncing back from its tariff-induced selloff on Friday. A little momentum has been lost in the Asian session this morning but we're still in a better place than Friday.

As we discussed this time yesterday, the biggest driver to Monday's rally was more positive rhetoric on trade over the weekend, which suggested that the US was more open to a compromise than Trump’s initial posts from Friday had indicated. But markets also got another boost from the latest AI news, as OpenAI signed a deal with Broadcom (+9.88%) to purchase 10 gigawatts of computer chips. So by the close, it meant the S&P 500 had recovered more than half of its Friday losses, and other assets like Brent crude oil (+0.94%) also managed to pare back last week’s declines.

Stand by for the start of US earnings season today with JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock and Citigroup all reporting. S&P 500 (-0.38%) and NASDAQ (-0.57%) futures are lower this morning ahead of what will soon be a deluge of earnings in a market starved of macro data due to the shutdown. Japanese markets are being hit the most this morning with the Nikkei down -2.80% with continued reverberations around the collapse of the ruling coalition late last week which puts some concerns as to whether new LDP leader Sanae Takaichi can still get enough votes to be elected PM.  

In terms of the latest on the trade war, the news over the last 24 hours has continued to sound much more emollient. For instance, US Treasury Secretary Bessent was on Fox Business yesterday, and he said on the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea, that “I believe that meeting will still be on”. Polymarket has the probability at such a meeting at 74% this morning from 62% as we went to print yesterday, 35% at the lows on Friday and 88% at the recent highs last week. Although as we go to print Bessent has been interviewed by the FT and his words seem more hawkish, accusing the Chinese of trying to hurt the world economy.

A reminder of Trump’s weekend posts, including his comment that Chinese President Xi “doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”  That backdrop led to a decent rebound for the most trade-sensitive stocks. So the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China index was up +3.21%, and that’s an index made up of companies publicly traded in the US, but who do a majority of their business in China. Similarly, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+4.93%) posted its strongest daily performance since May, admittedly with a boost from the Broadcom headlines as well.  

That unwind was clear across multiple asset classes, as the initial reaction from Friday was pared back. For instance, oil prices posted a decent recovery, with Brent crude (+0.94%) moving back up to $63.32/bbl, as investors lowered the chances of a wider breakdown in trade. Meanwhile US bond markets were closed for the Columbus Day holiday, but Treasury futures pointed to higher yields all day but 10yr yields are only +0.6bps higher this morning from Friday's close at 4.038% after having approached 4.07% at the reopen in Asia. 2yr yields are actually -1.3bps lower now than Friday's close.

Whilst the focus was mainly on trade yesterday, we’re also now two weeks into the US government shutdown, with no sign of a resolution as it stands. Indeed, if we look at prediction markets, it’s clear that a growing risk of an extended shutdown is being priced in, with Polymarket saying there’s a 27% chance now of it lasting beyond November 16. So that would still be another month from here and take it well over the 35-day record set in 2018-19. And if it did last that long, then it would continue to impact the flow of data like the jobs reports and have an increasing macroeconomic impact as federal workers remain without pay for the shutdown period.  

Over in Europe, political uncertainty was also a key theme yesterday as investors remain focused on the French budget situation. In terms of the next steps, PM Lecornu will be delivering the general policy statement today after his reappointment as PM, but the same issue remains in that the National Assembly is completely fractured between the different groups, who each have their own red lines. For now, however, markets haven’t seen much reaction, with the Franco-German 10yr spread holding broadly steady at 83bps. So it’s still beneath its peak of 86bps last week, when there was briefly a lot of speculation about another snap legislative election. Polymarket suggests the probability of an election being called by the end of the month and the end of the year stands at 36% and 57% respectively this morning but both down over 10pp from Sunday's highs.

Elsewhere in Europe, markets generally put in a solid performance yesterday, with the STOXX 600 up +0.44%, alongside gains for the DAX (+0.60%), the CAC 40 (+0.21%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.16%). Similarly, bonds rallied across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (-0.8bps), OATs (-0.9bps) and BTPs (-2.8bps) all moving lower, whilst Spain’s 10yr yield (-1.6bps) hit a 3-month low.

In the rest of Asia, outside of the politically motivated slump in Japan, markets are on the softer side led by the KOSPI (-1.36%) which has turned sharply lower as I've been typing this morning even with decent results from Samsung. China has imposed curbs on five US units of Hanwha Ocean after the US probed Chinese maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (-0.18%) is also lower for the seventh consecutive session with the Shanghai Composite (+0.21%) holding onto its gains alongside the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.16%). The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting revealed that the central bank remains cautious regarding future interest rate cuts due to persistent local inflation, while largely reiterating its data-dependent approach to future rate adjustments, noting that it is also awaiting the full impact of its monetary easing to be reflected in the economy.

Finally, yesterday brought another surge in gold prices (+2.30%), which continued their rally to close at $4,1110/oz. So that now takes their YTD gain up to +56.6%, still on track for their strongest annual performance since 1979. This morning we're up another +1.38% as I type. Meanwhile, silver (+4.44%) moved up to $52.37/oz yesterday, with its own YTD gains now standing at +82%. The London short squeeze continues to have an impact.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK unemployment for August, the German ZEW survey for October, and the US NFIB small business optimism index for September. Central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, the Fed’s Bowman, Waller and Collins, the ECB’s Cipollone, Makhlouf, Kocher and Villeroy, BoE Governor Bailey, and the BoE’s Taylor. Finally, earnings releases include JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock and Citigroup.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 08:50

Shares Of Michelin Tank On Guidance Cut After North American Auto Market Slumps 

Shares of French tiremaker Michelin plunged in Paris, marking the steepest intraday decline since the early Covid-pandemic crash, after the company slashed its 2025 outlook and warned of a bigger-than-expected sales decline in the North America market. 

Michelin now expects 2025 operating income between 2.6 billion euros and 3 billion euros, down from the previous outlook of 3.4 billion euros, citing softening agriculture, construction, and truck demand. Sales in North America plunged by nearly 10% in the third quarter, with a weaker dollar and tariffs weighing on margins.  

Michelin noted that competitiveness across the tire market was "impacted by tariffs" and comes as carmakers from Europe face a slowdown in Europe amid fierce competition from China, as well as the beginning innings of trouble in the U.S. following the recent collapse of subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings. Separate, but playing into the theme, UBS warned weeks ago that consumer weakness is now spreading from low-income to middle-income.

Citi analyst Ross MacDonald called the revised guidance "worse than feared," warning that tariff headwinds, trade-down risks, and subdued end-market demand could very well linger in the first quarter of 2026. 

Also, Michelin lowered its expected free cash flow before M&A to between 1.5 billion euros and 1.8 billion euros, down from 1.7 billion euros, due to the weaker dollar.  

Michelin is set to publish its third-quarter results next Wednesday. Today's guidance update sent shares in Paris plunging as much as 11%, marking the worst intraday decline in more than five years. Peer Continental AG also fell in Frankfurt.

Year-to-date, shares are down 17.55%, and top Wall Street analysts have yet to mark a near-term turnaround, having cut target multiples due to North American sales woes. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 08:10

JPMorgan Kicks Off Earnings Season With Another Stellar Quarter As Dimon Flags "Heightened Uncertainty"

And they're off. As is now customary, moments ago JPM reported Q3 earnings officially launching the third quarter earnings season with another batch of impressive results which beat across the board.

Starting at the top, JPM reported Q3 revenue which beat by almost $2 billion, thanks to another quarter of stellar FICC and equity sales and trading, with investment banking also coming strong and advisory rounding out the segments that beat. The bottom line was Net Income of $14.4 billion, a solid beat to consensus expectations, and a 14% increase YoY.

Here are the details:

• Adjusted revenue $47.12 billion, beating estimates of $45.48 billion 
  • Markets revenue of $8.9 billion, up 25% YoY
    • FICC sales & trading revenue $5.61 billion, beating estimates of $5.33 billion
    • Equities sales & trading revenue $3.33 billion, beating estimates of $3.04 billion
  • Investment banking revenue $2.69 billion, beating estimates of $2.67 billion
• Net interest income $24.07 billion, just below estimates of $24.16 billion
• Non-interest expenses $24.28 billion, below estimates of $24.31 billion, but up 8% YoY, predominantly driven by higher compensation, including higher revenue-related compensation and growth in front office employees, as well as higher brokerage expense and distribution fees, higher auto lease depreciation and higher marketing expense, partially offset by lower legal expense
  • Compensation expenses $13.57 billion, below estimates of $13.87 billion
• EPS $5.07, up 16% YoY and beating estimates of $4.82

Of note here was JPM's slightly higher than expected provision for credit losses which came at $3.4 billion, compared to a consensus estimate of $3.08 billion, and higher than the $3.1 billion from a year ago. The higher provision was due to charge offs of $2.59 billion coupled with JPMorgan adding $810 million to its loan-loss reserve in Q3, double the reserve it took out in Q2. The bank attributed the figure to $608mm in Consumer and $205mm in Wholesale, and said that the impact from chargeoffs was related to borrower-related collateral irregularities and some other factors. It’s now boosted that reserve by almost $1.4 billion this year, seemingly prepping for more defaults to come. Bloomberg has previously reported that JPMorgan, Fifth Third Bancorp and Barclays were among banks bracing for potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in combined losses from loans tied to subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings.

Adding to that point, Jamie Dimon pointed to a "heightened degree of uncertainty from complex geopolitical conditions, tariffs and trade uncertainty, elevated asset prices and the risk of sticky inflation." Still, the CEO said that while there have been some signs of a softening, particularly in job growth, the US economy generally remained resilient, and the bank benefited from higher client activity. 

While comp expense did drop a bit, it still remained the elephant in the spending room because despite all the talk about cost savings and job losses from the AI revolution, they’ve yet to show up in the bank’s headcount figures. A year ago, JPMorgan employed just over 316,000 people; 12 months on, the number has ticked up a little to 318,153.

Turning to JPM's "Fortress" Balance sheet, we find some disappointing elements of weakness:

• Net yield on interest-earning assets 2.45%, missing estimates of 2.48%
• Standardized CET1 ratio 14.8%, missing estimates of 15.1%
• Managed overhead ratio 52%, missing estimates of 53.2%
• Return on equity 17%, beating estimates of 15.7%
• Return on tangible common equity 20%, beating estimates of 18.8%
• Assets under management $4.60 trillion, beating estimates of $4.52 trillion
• Tangible book value per share $105.70, beating estimates of $104.57
• Book value per share $124.96, beating estimates of $124.33
• Cash and due from banks $21.82 billion, below estimates of $23.69 billion
• Loans $1.44 trillion, beating the estimate $1.42 trillion
• Total deposits $2.55 trillion, beating the estimate $2.58 trillion

The visual summary:

What stands out here is that while rates and margins are coming down, revolving card balances have increased as consumers get ever deeper in debt, helping the bank maintain its net interest income. Average loans in the cards business hit $234 billion in the last quarter, up from $217 billion a year ago.

Turning to the all-important Commercial and Investment Bank, JPM reported stellar markets revenue which at $8.9B, was up 25% YoY:

• Fixed Income Markets revenue of $5.61B, beating estimates of $5.33B and up 21% YoY, largely driven by higher revenue in Rates, Credit and the Securitized Products Group
• Equity Markets revenue of $3.3B, beating estimates of $3.04B and up 33% YoY, predominantly driven by higher revenue across products, particularly in Prime
• IB revenue of $2.7B, up 14% YoY, driven by higher fees across all products:
  • Advisory revenue $926 million, beating estimates of $901.3 million
  • Equity underwriting rev. $527 million, beating estimates of $457.1 million
  • Debt underwriting rev. $1.17 billion, beating estimates of $1.16 billion
• Securities Services revenue of $1.4B, up 7% YoY, driven by higher deposit balances as well as fee growth on higher client activity and market levels, partially offset by deposit margin compression

As Bloomberg notes, it’s easy to see why JPM has posted such strong numbers in investment banking: fees from that unit are up 16% YoY. It was the busiest quarter for IPOs since 2021. There has also been a noticeable pickup in new M&A announcements, and that will feed into the fee line for at least another couple of quarters. 

On the other side of the ledger, expenses were up 11% to $9.7B, driven by higher compensation and brokerage expense. Compensation expense was up 6% through the first nine months of the year compared to the same period last year. Tech expense is outpacing the growth in comp, up 11% this year, and on track to exceed $10 billion for the full year. In other words, it is shaping up as a good year for bonuses. 

Separately, the company reported that credit costs in the group were $809mm, driven by net lending activity, the impact of chargeoffs related to what appears to be borrower-related collateral irregularities in certain secured lending facilities and changes in credit quality of certain exposures, partially offset by updates to macroeconomic variables. We assume this is related to the Tricolor Bankruptcy. 

In the consumer and community banking business, while home lending revenues were down 3% on the same quarter a year ago, this was more than offset by a 12% rise in card services and auto, and a 9% uptick in banking and wealth management.  Separately, when it comes to return on equity, Bloomberg notes that consumer and community banking is "an absolute monster." This time last year JPMorgan was making a healthy 29% ROE from CCB, but a year on, this has risen to 35%. To put that in some context, the bank’s flashier commercial and investment banking operations increased their return from 17% to 18% over the same period. Also of note, provisions for credit losses in the consumer and community banking division were $2.5 billion in the quarter, 9% smaller year-on-year. While the bank has continued to build provisions based on loan growth in its cards business, this has been offset on by “reduced borrower uncertainty.”

Turning to the bank's asset and wealth management division, the booming stock market continues to be a major boost here, with assets under management rising 18% to $4.6 trillion, while client assets rose 20% to $6.8 trillion as a result of both net inflows and rises in markets. And talking of ROEs, asset and wealth management also managed a respectable 40% return on equity in the last quarter. This was a rise of 6 percentage points year-on-year.

Looking ahead, JPM raised its guidance again, and now sees FY Net Interest Income of $95.8BN - due to $25BN forecast in Q4 - up from its previous forecast of $95.5BN and above the $95.5BN median estimate. The bank also sees NII ex-Markets of $92.2BN, also an improvement from $92.0BN.

In response, JPMorgan shares swung between gains and losses premarket. Now down around 0.5%. Still, they are faring better than S&P 500 contracts, with futures down over 1%.  

The full investor presentation is here (pdf link).

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 07:54

'I Am Your Champion': Nigel Farage Makes Case For UK Crypto Reform

Authored by Mat Di Salvo via Decrypt.co,

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said Monday that the digital asset space needs better regulation in Britain. 

Speaking at the Digital Asset Summit 2025 in London, Farage said that there is no regulated market for crypto in the UK right now.

He called for "sensible regulation, not the ludicrous regulation we now have on equities and elsewhere" in the country. 

"This whole area of digital assets and crypto just isn't being talked about at all," Farage said.

"We've got no regulated market. You need some regulation—a sensible level of regulation."

He added:

"My deep frustration—despite one speech by [ex-UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak] on this, the government of today has done nothing in this area."

The former leader of the Conservative Party Rishi Sunak, who was PM from 2022 to 2024, said back in 2022 that he wanted the UK to be "a global crypto asset technology hub." 

Despite this, not a single major party mentioned crypto in their manifestos ahead of the 2024 elections in the UK. 

The co-founder of UK lobbying firm Athena Technologies, Conrad Young, in 2024 told Decrypt that this was "a significant missed opportunity."

Crypto is a key battle ground in the U.S. presidential election. But as the UK general election heats up, no major political party has taken a stance on the industry. Last week, the two major political parties in the UK published manifestos outlining their vision of the future. Across the combined 222 pages, there was not a single mention of crypto, blockchain, or CBDCs. In fact, broadening the search to include the three largest alternative UK political parties there is only one mention of thes...

Farage, an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, is now pushing for a crypto-friendly framework in the country—and similarly is presenting himself as an advocate for crypto investors and builders in his country as he makes his case to potentially be future UK prime minister.

"Whether you like or dislike many of the political positions I've taken over the past three decades is frankly irrelevant: When it comes to your industry, when it comes to growth in this industry, then I am your champion," he said.

"I make things change."

Widely known as the mastermind of Britain's decision to leave the European Union, Farage and his Reform UK party are currently popular in the polls. 

The former member of the European Parliament got his account with British bank Coutts closed in 2023. Since then, right-winger Farage has argued that crypto can solve "debanking"—again echoing comments from President Trump and his sons.

"I am the most famous case of being debanked in this country. Here is personal sovereignty—you've got your own money, you're in charge," Farage said Monday.

"The reason that I was the first prominent person in British politics to adopt crypto, to talk about crypto, to try and legitimize crypto… I could see this is the way it was going."

In May, Farage said at the Bitcoin 2025 conference that he'd slash crypto capital gains taxes and force the Bank of England to establish a Bitcoin reserve if elected.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 07:45

Stocks Surge, Small Caps Erase All Losses Post-Trump As USTR Says Trump-Xi Meeting Still 'Scheduled'

Update (1145ET): US Trade Representative Lamieson Greer told CNBC that "there is a scheduled time for that,” when asked about the possibility of a Trump-Xi meeting, even as Trump has cast doubt on whether the meeting will take place because of China’s new export controls.

Greer also noted that China has now “realized they have overstepped” with its rare earths export controls that he says came “out of nowhere.”

“We’ve been pretty successful in finding a path forward with them in the past, so we think we’ll be able to work through it,” Greer says

That helped extend gains in stocks, pushing Small Caps all the way up to unchanged since President Trump's initial China 'hostile' tweet from Friday...

It appears the China rhetoric overnight has quickly been forgotten.

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Global equity futures slipped on Tuesday after China vowed to "fight to the end" in its trade war with the U.S., following President Trump's threat last week to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. Despite Washington's attempts to soften its tone over the weekend, tensions are intensifying into the new week: both countries are imposing new docking fees on each other's vessels, signaling deepening Sino-US relations ahead of Trump-Xi talks. Adding to the flaring tensions, Beijing sanctioned five U.S. subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused China of deliberately undermining the global economy.

Trump's move last Friday to threaten Beijing with an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods, in response to China's sweeping new export controls on rare earths and ahead of a planned Trump-Xi meeting later this month, signals that both sides are trying to gain as much leverage as possible before the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in South Korea. 

The Chinese Commerce Ministry condemned the Trump administration's tactics, calling them incompatible with dialogue. "If you wish to fight, we shall fight to the end; if you wish to negotiate, our door remains open," a ministry spokesperson said.

"The United States cannot simultaneously seek dialogue while threatening to impose new restrictive measures. This is not the proper way to engage with China," the ministry said.

On Sunday, Trump walked back his rhetoric in a Truth Social post that said "it will all be fine", adding that the U.S. wants to "help" China. This relief sent global equities soaring on Monday, yet the outlook darkened on Tuesday after the ministry sanctioned South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha. 

China's Commerce Ministry wrote in a statement that Hanwha Ocean's five U.S. subsidiaries, Hanwha Shipping LLC, Hanwha Philly Shipyard Inc., Hanwha Ocean USA International LLC, Hanwha Shipping Holdings LLC, and HS USA Holdings Corp, are sanctioned over "assisting and supporting the U.S. government's probes and measures against Chinese maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors. China is strongly dissatisfied and resolutely opposes it." 

Earlier Tuesday, Beijing confirmed it had begun imposing additional port fees on vessels linked to the U.S., while clarifying that Chinese-built ships would be exempt from the new charges. This tit-for-tat followed the U.S. decision to impose on Chinese vessels at U.S. ports.

Also, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Financial Times that Beijing is trying to damage the global economy with its export controls on rare earths and critical minerals, sending some global supply chains into snarled conditions. 

"This is a sign of how weak their economy is, and they want to pull everybody else down with them," Bessent said on Monday, adding, "Maybe there is some Leninist business model where hurting your customers is a good idea, but they are the largest supplier to the world. If they want to slow down the global economy, they will be hurt the most."

Bessent added, "They are in the middle of a recession/depression, and they are trying to export their way out of it. The problem is they're exacerbating their standing in the world."

There's been a flurry of developments on the U.S.-China front. UBS analyst Joe Dickinson broke down the past 24 hours, removing the noise to explain market impacts:

EStoxx fell 20bp to start, following U.S. futures lower. Commentary from both the U.S. and China on Trade was conciliatory overnight. China's commerce ministry indicated working-level talks were held Monday, Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that Trump and Xi are still expected to meet at the APEC Summit at the end of the month.

But price action in Asia is cautious and weaker again. Nikkei cash dropped 2.8% while futures were down 1.7%. China reopens lower in the afternoon session, with CSI300 down 80bp after China's Ministry of Commerce announced curbs on five U.S. units of Hanwha Ocean in response to U.S. probes against Chinese maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries, as well as reports that China has started charging port fees for U.S. ships. Note that Samsung slid 4% post earnings.

S&P 500 futures are down a little more than 1% while Nasdaq 100 contracts fell 1.5%. 

Sea of red across global equity futures. 

Bitcoin's rebound losing momentum. 

WTI futures tumbling. 

Treasuries bid. US10Y tags 4%. 

Now we wait to see whether the Trump administration doubles-down on their tit-for-tat-ing or steadies the ship again?

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 07:26

Steve Jobs Vs Tim Cook: How The Tenures Of Both Apple CEOs Compare

From a scrappy garage startup to the world’s most valuable company, Apple’s journey is closely tied to the legacies of its two most influential CEOs: Steve Jobs and Tim Cook.

This visual, created by Made Visual Daily via Visual Capitalist, compares the two eras side by side. It highlights key milestones, product launches, and the company’s market capitalization growth.

The data comes from publicly available sources.

Under Steve Jobs, Apple’s market cap surged from $2.5 billion to $350 billion, driven by iconic releases like the iMac, iPod, iPhone, and iPad. Meanwhile, Tim Cook has overseen a staggering $3.1 trillion increase in value, with the company reaching $3.7 trillion in 2025, bolstered by services, AirPods, Apple Silicon, and even the Apple Vision Pro.

Jobs: The Product Visionary

Jobs returned to Apple in 1997 during a time of crisis. Over the next 14 years, he delivered breakthrough products that redefined industries—from the original iMac and iPod to the game-changing iPhone and iPad. These weren’t just gadgets—they reshaped how people interact with technology.

The launch of the App Store in 2008 also set the foundation for Apple’s massive software and services ecosystem, now a major profit center for the company.

Cook: The Scaler and Strategist

When Cook took over in 2011, many questioned if Apple could continue innovating. But Cook’s operational acumen allowed the company to scale globally, optimize margins, and diversify revenue streams. Under his leadership, Apple launched the Apple Watch, AirPods, Apple Pay, and custom silicon (M1 chip), while significantly expanding its services segment.

Today, Apple’s ecosystem includes hardware, services, entertainment, and finance. Cook has successfully shepherded the company into new growth areas, helping it weather challenges like supply chain crises and slowing smartphone growth.

The Longevity of Leadership, and the Question of What’s Next

Cook has now led Apple longer than Jobs. His quiet, operational style has proved durable, weathering global disruptions while continuing to expand Apple’s footprint in China, health, and AI.

But with his tenure entering its twilight, attention is turning toward succession. Some analysts point to COO Jeff Williams or SVP of Services Eddy Cue as likely candidates, while others speculate that rising stars like John Ternus or Craig Federighi could take the reins.

As Apple’s next chapter unfolds, the bar remains high: Cook took the world’s most innovative company and turned it into one of its most valuable ones. The next leader will have to chart a path for both growth and reinvention.

As noted in this 2023 CNBC profile, Cook emphasizes collaboration and expects innovation from every level of the company. Whoever takes the reins next will need to balance Apple’s culture of secrecy with a rapidly evolving tech landscape—from AI to augmented reality.

For how many years was Apple the most valuable company in the U.S. between 1995 to 2025? Find out in this nifty visualization on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 06:55

Russia Accuses Ukrainian Intelligence Of Using ISIS For Assassination Plot

Via The Cradle

The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) stated on Monday that its officers foiled a terrorist attack in Moscow that was planned by ISIS under the direction of Ukrainian intelligence.

ISIS operatives sought to target a high-ranking Russian Defense Ministry official using an explosive device in a densely populated area of the capital city, the agency said in a statement.

Via Associated Press

"The FSB has prevented a sabotage and terrorist act against one of the senior officers of the Russian Defense Ministry, organized by Ukrainian special services in coordination with leaders of the international terrorist organization Islamic State (banned as a terrorist organization in Russia)," the FSB statement said.

Four suspects connected to the plot were detained, including a native of a Central Asian country. The FSB alleged that the plan was developed by Ukrainian intelligence and would have been carried out by a suicide bomber recruited by an ISIS member named Saidakbar Gulomov.

“On instructions from Ukrainian handlers, S. Gulomov remotely directed the perpetrator's actions from Ukraine and several Western European countries using multiple foreign messaging applications,” the FSB added.

Gulomov allegedly provided the attacker with funds, information about the target, and materials for assembling explosive devices smuggled into Russia by Ukrainian intelligence using drones.

According to the FSB, Gulomov was also involved in the killing of Russian Lieutenant General Kirillov, commander of the Russian Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense Troops, in December 2024.

The FSB claims the attack on Kirillov was also orchestrated by Ukrainian intelligence. Monday's foiled terror attack “once again demonstrates the close coordination between the Kiev regime and international terrorist organizations,” the Russian intelligence service stated.

In March 2024, four gunmen attacked a concert hall near Moscow, opening fire on the more than 5,000 people gathered to watch the Russian rock group Piknik. At least 145 people were killed in the attack.  

Russian authorities blamed the ISIS affiliate in Afghanistan, ISIS-Khorasan, for the attack, while also accusing Ukrainian intelligence of orchestrating it.

“The investigation has concluded that the terrorist act was planned and organized by the security services of an unfriendly state in order to destabilize the situation in Russia,” stated the Russian Investigative Committee, which was tasked with determining who was responsible. “Members of an international terrorist organization were recruited to carry it out.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 06:30

Majority Supports Social Media Ban For Children

Australia passed a social media ban for teenagers and children under the age of 16 in December, which applies to companies including Instagram, X and TikTok. The measure is intended to reduce the “social harm” done to young Australians and is set to come into force on December 10, 2025. Tech giants will be up against fines of up to A$49.5 million ($31 million) if they do not adhere to the rules.

The new law was approved on November 28, 2024, with support from a majority of the general public. However, the blanket ban sparked backlash from several child rights groups who warn that it could cut off access to vital support, particularly for children from migrant, LGBTQIA+ and other minority backgrounds.

Critics argue it could also push children towards less regulated areas of the internet.

The new legislation is the strictest of its kind on a national level and comes as other countries grapple with how best to regulate technology in a rapidly-evolving world.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, using data from an Ipsos survey fielded in August 2025, it’s not just Australians who support a full ban of social media for children and young teens.

You will find more infographics at Statista

An average of seven in ten respondents across the 30 countries surveyed said the same.

In France, an even higher share of adults (85 percent) held the view that children under the age of 14 should not be allowed social media either inside or outside of school.

This belief was far less common in Germany (53 percent). Consensus has been growing in countries around the world, with a growing number of respondents agreeing that such bans should be put in place across almost all countries surveyed, except for in India, Thailand and Hungary, where the opposite was true.

Sentiments on smartphone use differed by generation. Where 39 percent of Gen Z said they would support a ban on smartphones in schools, the figure was far higher among older generations (69 percent of Boomers, 61 percent of Gen X and 57 percent of Millennials.)

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 05:45

Saudi Arabia's Debt Surge: Cementing Reliance On International Funding

Authored by Nick Smallwood via BondVigilantes.com,

The increasing liquidity squeeze in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s (KSA) financial system has been causing heightened levels of debate for some time.

A growing economy and the financial demands of the mega-projects that are under way are hoovering up cash faster than the domestic system can supply it. For context, recent reports suggest that the new city of NEOM could cost $8.8tn to build, which is around 25 times KSA’s annual budget.

Until recently, the Saudi business complex was able to meet its financial needs by raising money locally, generally via bank loans or by issuing sukuks into the strong domestic investor base (often private banks managing the wealth of high-net-worth individuals). However, the system has become too stretched. Credit growth has outstripped deposit growth for several years, while local investors buying financial assets must withdraw money from their bank accounts to do so, meaning that financial investments cause a reduction in banks’ deposit funding as local funding is cannibalised.

On top of that, deliberate oil production cuts and weaker oil prices have reduced oil revenues from SAR 857bn in 2022 to a projected SAR 608bn in 2025, contributing to a swing in the national budget from a surplus of 2.2% of GDP to a projected deficit of 4% over the period (using IMF numbers). The deliberate attempt to diversify away from oil therefore comes at a budgetary cost, at least for now, meaning that the country needs to attract more external funding.

If domestic liquidity is challenged, the logical step for a highly-rated country to take is to seek funding from abroad, which is precisely what has occurred. International debt issued by KSA and its large banks/corporates has surged in recent years. KSA sovereign and quasi-sovereign issuances now account for 5.1% of the most widely used EM sovereign bond index (JPM EMBI), meaning that it is now the largest issuer in that index. Its corporates now account for 4.3% of the corporate version of that index (JPM CEMBI), in which it has become the fourth-largest constituent. That represents a stunning change in its international market presence.

A glance at financial sector balance sheets shows that the need for international funding is structural – it is here to stay. Overall bank loans have grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% since 2019, with deposits growing by just 8% over the same period. In cash terms, loans have doubled from SAR 1.5tn in 2019 to SAR 3.0tn as at end-2024, while deposits have increased much less, from SAR 1.8tn to SAR 2.7tn. In 2019, therefore, the financial system had more than enough deposits to fund the economy’s credit needs; by 2024, this is patently no longer the case. In fact, the system’s loans/deposits ratio has weakened from 86% to 110% over the period. The conclusion is simple: banks are now dependent on wholesale funding if the current rate of credit growth is to be maintained.

Source: SAMA

We can see the scale of the change in issuance of international bonds, which has soared in the past few years. In 2023, KSA banks issued $2.0bn of bonds, accounting for around 6% of total issuance from the Saudi complex. In 2024, this grew to $6.8bn (14% of total), while so far this year banks have already issued $14.9bn of bonds, comprising 27.4% of all Saudi issuance. And it’s not just the banks that are issuing more debt internationally. KSA’s funding needs mean that it is issuing through every vehicle at its disposal, including cash-rich Aramco and its sovereign wealth fund (PIF). Total Saudi debt issuance ballooned from $36bn in 2023, equating to around $3bn per month, to $54bn year-to-date or around $6.4bn per month.

Source: Bloomberg

It is very clear where all this leads: the KSA complex is structurally increasing its reliance on international debt markets. Banks are taking an ever-greater share of Saudi issuance, which also seems to be a persistent trend. KSA is therefore increasingly dependent on international investment to fund its domestic priorities, while the abundance of supply and the prevalence of more price-sensitive foreign investors in its investor base means that Saudi bonds may struggle to perform for a while. We wrote previously that the technicals of the sukuk market would generally assure tight spreads and strong performance (see here). The times, they are a-changin’ – that model no longer applies.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 05:00

Another Nuclear Warning From Medvedev, This Time Over Tomahawks

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has issued a nuclear warning in the face of reports that Washington may authorize transferring US long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.

President Trump's latest remarks weighing in on the issue saw him veil his intentions in usually cryptic wording. Aboard Air Force One while traveling to the Middle East earlier Monday he had said Tomahawks are a "very offensive weapon," noting, "honestly, Russia does not need that."

Via The Guardian/Shutterstock

Headlines throughout the say said he 'might' approve of sending them. These are missiles capable of hitting Moscow. This is also as last month Trump surprised observers by claiming that Ukraine could still 'win' the war and actually regain territory.

Medvedev's chilling response on Monday spelled out that this "could end badly for everyone … most of all, for Trump himself," according to a translation of his Telegram post.

"It's been said a hundred times, in a manner understandable even to the star-spangled man, that it's impossible to distinguish a nuclear Tomahawk missile from a conventional one in flight," Medvedev, who serves as the Russian Security Council Deputy Chair, further noted.

Medvedev here is alluding to Russian strategic doctrine. In a scenario where Moscow leaders believed or suspected a nuclear payload had been launched at Russia, its military would have the right to respond in kind, with nukes.

The past couple months have seen Trump and Medvedev direct threatening messages at each other, particularly related to Trump proclaiming that he had deployed a pair of nuclear submarines somewhere near Russia.

Thankfully it has all so far been confined to social media barbs, and not any clear instance of either side's strategic forces being placed on emergency alert.

But Medvedev's latest message is meant as a clear 'red line' warning to Washington - that things could rapidly and uncontrollably escalate in Ukraine if the US sends Tomahawk missiles to use against Russia.

BREAKING:

Trump:

“If this war isn’t m going to get settled, I’m going to send them (Ukraine) Tomahawks. It’s an incredible, very offensive weapon” pic.twitter.com/9kpfoJfc8u

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 12, 2025

President Zelensky has meanwhile sought to make clear he won't target anything but military sites with them, in an effort to convince Washington these long-range missiles can be deployed 'responsibly'.

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Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 04:15

Germany's Auto Summit: Spectacle Over Substance, Economy At Risk

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Politics is the art of the possible, as Otto von Bismarck famously said. The auto summit at the Chancellery shows that, in Germany, nothing seems to work anymore. Politics refuses any gradual departure from the eco-socialist course.

Thursday was an eventful day—at least from the federal government’s perspective. No sooner had Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his deputy Lars Klingbeil given the bottomless pit of “citizens’ income” a new label than they turned to the next crisis hotspot of the republic: the collapsing automotive industry.

At the auto summit convened by the Chancellor, government members, state premiers of affected regions, business representatives, and unions gathered to discuss the future of eroding automotive production.

Dramatic Situation

The situation was clear—and dramatic. Since 2018, the German automotive sector has suffered a 25 percent production decline. In just the past twelve months, 50,000 jobs have been lost. One of the pillars of the German economy is eroding—unstoppably.

The reasons are obvious: a homegrown energy crisis due to the exit from Russian gas and nuclear power, the politically forced transformation to electric mobility, and relentless competition from China. All of this makes life hell for manufacturers.

This diagnosis applies to the entire German economy. Energy-intensive production under current regulatory and energy-policy conditions is simply no longer competitive. Around 250,000 industrial jobs have been cut since 2018—well-paid skilled workers are losing their positions—so much for the supposed skills shortage.

Logic in Exile

The obvious consequence—hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk in the coming months—would be a radical course correction: the end of the ideologically ossified Green Deal, which has turned Europe into a high-risk zone for international capital.

But what counts as “normal” in German politics or in Brussels offices anymore? As with the citizens’ income, the auto summit is less about solutions than about spectacle. Willingness to reform is faked, competence feigned—while the system that created the crisis remains untouched. Illusion over substance, show over content.

The economy’s quiet grumbling over energy costs and the electric-vehicle dead end was dispersed by Merz, Klingbeil, and co. in the usual way: a new, multibillion-euro subsidy for electric cars is supposed to bring the turnaround. An instrument that recently failed has now been resurrected, as the new special fund seems to make politics’ horizons infinite.

To appease criticism within their own ranks regarding the combustion engine ban, the Chancellor floated an extension for plug-in hybrids and range extenders. But fundamentally, the combustion engine ban remains, following the SPD line, which essentially mirrors the green hardline ideology that has driven the economy to collapse. Everything else is window dressing to make the political slogan of technological openness appear meaningful.

Media Games and Hardline Ideology

Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil of the SPD also spoke, harmoniously and in agreement with the substance. He endorsed pragmatism and flexibility—in plain terms: We recognize that automotive production in Germany may soon belong to the past. But essentially, that does not bother us, since we trust it will no longer be needed in eco-socialist Europe under Brussels anyway.

According to the Berlin bubble’s political vision, family cars and second vehicles will soon be relics. The future of mobility should be green, just not individual. It is based on a confused plan for state-operated public transport.

The few electric cars approved in the distant future are likely to be privileged status symbols, rarely owned, usually rented for short periods. Green revenge on the long-resisting German citizen.

To be clear: this auto summit called by the Chancellor was nothing but a political show. A carefully staged media event, fitting seamlessly into the PR games Merz treats as a form of politics. Consider the “Made for Germany” coffee klatsch, which faked an investment offensive, or the almost embarrassing rebranding of citizens’ income into basic security.

Regardless of the coalition constellation over recent years, the goal has always been the same: to consistently push the restructuring of the economy into an eco-socialist foundation in key sectors of industry and energy.

Predictable End

The ruling political ideology’s preferred solution—and the one that applies to all economic misdevelopments today—is predictable: new subsidies and another electric car purchase bonus. The summit ends as no one should be surprised. The long-dried subsidy channels of the green favored economy are flooded with fresh state credit. True to the stock-market motto: the tide lifts all boats.

Anyone following the bond markets closely can see that this policy is bound to end in fiscal, economic, and ultimately societal fiasco. About three years ago, secular shifts away from increasingly risky government bonds began, making financing of political grandiose dreams more difficult in the future. The end of this policy will come when the bond market finally lowers its thumb. Until then, we can look forward to the next summit.

 

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 03:30

Africa Is Home To 16 Of The World's 20 Fastest Growing Populations

At current rates, it will take 133 years for America’s population to double given aging demographics and low fertility rates.

By contrast, several countries in Africa and the Middle East are set to double in a quarter century. For instance, Kinshasa, in the DRC, is forecast to be among the most populous cities worldwide by 2080 given rapid population growth.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows the fastest-growing populations in the world, based on data from the United Nations.

Years for the Fastest Growing Populations to Double in Size

Below, we show countries with the fastest annual doubling rates at current projections:

As we can see, Oman and Syria are set to double their population in just 20 years.

Overall, the population of Arab states are projected to double in 36 years, supported by average fertility rates of 3.2 births per women. Yemen and Afghanistan each are set to double in size in 24 and 26 years, respectively.

In Africa, the Central African Republic and Somalia are set to reach this milestone in 21 years, making them the fastest-growing populations on the continent. Perhaps even more strikingly, the DRC, with a population of 112.8 million in 2025, could double by 2047.

Going further, the DRC is set to become the fifth-most populous country in 2100, up from 15th in 2025. Meanwhile, Nigeria is set to the fourth-largest by population after India, China, and Pakistan.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the fastest shrinking countries in the world.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 02:45