Putin Defends Iran's Right To Nuclear Enrichment In First Macron Phone Call In 3 Years

On Tuesday Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron spoke by phone for the first time in almost three years, at a moment of various global hotspots of interest to both countries.

A nearly two week war between Iran and Israel just ensued last month, at the end of which the US launched a major bombing campaign on three Iranian nuclear facilities. And the Ukraine war shows no ending in sight, with both sides refusing to make concessions. However, just this week the Trump administration confirmed that some weapons shipments to Kiev have been halted

A big question which lingers over Mideast tensions is the future of Iran's nuclear program. The White House's claim that the Islamic Republic's nuclear capability has been destroyed remains anything but certain or settled. Notably, Putin in the call defended Iran's ability and sovereign right to purse a peaceful nuclear energy program.

In the meantime, Tehran has halted cooperation with the UN's nuclear watchdog IAEA, with the Iranian president having signed this move into law on Wednesday, also amid outrage that its chief Raphael Grossi refused to condemn Israel and US aggression against Iran.

Following the call, the Kremlin issued an official statement summarizing the conversation between Presidents Macron and Putin. 

Below is the translated call readout issue by the Kremlin in full [emphasis ZH]...

* * *

Vladimir Putin and Emmanuel Macron emphasized that Russia and France, as permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, bore particular responsibility for upholding peace and security, in the Middle East and elsewhere, as well as for preserving the global non-proliferation regime.

In this regard, it was noted that respecting Tehran’s legitimate right to develop peaceful nuclear technology and continue to fulfill its obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which includes cooperating with the IAEA, was crucial.

The two leaders spoke in favor of settling the crisis around Iran’s nuclear program and any other differences arising in the Middle East exclusively via political and diplomatic means. They agreed to maintain contact in order to coordinate their stances if necessary.

When discussing the situation surrounding Ukraine, Vladimir Putin reiterated that the conflict was a direct consequence of the policies pursued by the Western countries, which had for years been ignoring Russia’s security interests, creating an anti-Russia staging ground in the country, and condoning violations of rights of Ukraine’s Russian-speaking citizens, and at present were pursuing a policy of prolonging hostilities by supplying the Kiev regime with a variety of modern weaponry.

Any negotiated settlement must bring peace for the long term, Putin reminds Macron...

First Putin-Macron phone since 2022 as NATO's boycott of diplomacy comes to an end
- The Kremlin noted that Putin reminded Macron that the war in Ukraine “is a direct consequence of the policies of Western states,” and warned that any peace agreement in Ukraine must be… pic.twitter.com/VUmS4kNq15

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) July 2, 2025

Speaking about the prospects of a peaceful settlement, the President of Russia has confirmed Moscow’s stance on possible agreements: they are to be comprehensive and long-term, provide for the elimination of the root causes of the Ukraine crisis, and be based on the new territorial realities. 

* * *

Below are more geopolitical headlines on Wednesday, via Newsquawk:

• US President posted that his representatives had a long and productive meeting with the Israelis on Gaza and Israel agreed to the necessary conditions to finalise a 60-day ceasefire during which they will work with all parties to end the war. Furthermore, the Qataris and Egyptians will deliver this final proposal and he hopes, for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this deal, because it will not get better and will only get worse.
• US officials said Iran made preparations to mine the Strait of Hormuz last month although mines were not deployed in the strait, according to Reuters.
• "Iranian Minister of Communications: Internet outages in the country caused by external attacks", according to Al Jazeera.
• "Advisor to the Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC: The war has stopped, but the United States and Israel have not achieved their goals", according to Iran International.
• US Pentagon has halted shipments of some air defence missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine due to worries that US weapons stockpiles have fallen too low, according to Politico.
• Quad joint statement expresses serious concern over the situation in the East China Sea and South China Sea, while they called for the perpetrators, organisers and financiers of the April 22nd attack in Indian Kashmir to be brought to justice.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 17:20

Moderna To Ask For Clearance For Combination COVID-Influenza Vaccine

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Moderna is going to ask regulators to approve its combination vaccine against COVID-19 and influenza, the company said on June 30.

The company said a phase 3 study evaluating its influenza vaccine candidate, mRNA-1010—which utilizes the same messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) platform as its COVID-19 vaccine—showed positive effectiveness.

A health care worker prepares a vaccine in New York City in a file photograph. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

In the trial, which featured 40,805 participants and compared mRNA-1010 to an existing seasonal flu vaccine in adults aged 50 and up, the relative protection from the candidate was 26.6 percent better. In a subgroup analysis among participants aged at least 65, the relative efficacy was 27.4 percent.

“Today’s strong Phase 3 efficacy results are a significant milestone in our effort to reduce the burden of influenza in older adults,” Stéphane Bancel, Moderna’s CEO, said in a statement.

Several companies, including Moderna, have been planning to introduce combination shots against COVID-19 and influenza.

Moderna, however, in May withdrew its application for approval for its combination vaccine, a move the company said came after consulting with the Food and Drug Administration.

Moderna at the time said it planned to resubmit the application before the end of 2025 after it received efficacy data from the phase 3 trial for mRNA 1010.

“An mRNA-based flu vaccine has the potential advantage to more precisely match circulating strains, support rapid response in a future influenza pandemic, and pave the way for COVID-19 combination vaccines,” Bancel said on Monday.

The trial results have been fully published or peer reviewed. Moderna said it plans to submit the results to a peer-reviewed journal.

Moderna said that the phase 3, randomized trial results showed safety results similar to those reported from a different phase 3 trial in March in the journal Vaccine. In that paper, researchers reported similar numbers of adverse events between Moderna vaccine recipients and volunteers who received existing flu vaccines. There were also fewer severe, serious, and medically attended adverse events among the Moderna recipients, with no deaths reported in that group.

“The majority of solicited adverse reactions (SARs) were mild,” Moderna said in a statement about the new study. “Injection site pain was the most common local SAR, and fatigue, headache and myalgia were the most common systemic SARs reported.

“There were no significant differences between the groups in the rates of unsolicited adverse events, serious adverse events, or adverse events of special interest.”

There are currently no mRNA flu vaccines in the United States.

The FDA did not return a request for comment by publication time.

Regulators in May approved a new COVID-19 vaccine from Moderna for adults aged 65 and older, as well as other individuals aged at least 12 who have one or more conditions that officials say put them at higher risk for severe COVID-19.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 17:00

Del Monte Bankruptcy Won't Spark Canned Food Shortages  

Del Monte Foods, a major player in America's canned food supply chain, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in New Jersey as part of a broader strategic restructuring effort. The company does not anticipate that the bankruptcy process will cause any disruptions to the canned food market. 

The 138-year-old food company, a U.S. unit of Singapore-based Del Monte Pacific, best known for its canned fruits and vegetables, entered into a restructuring support agreement with a group holding some of its term loan debt. The company stated it's "pursuing a value-maximizing sale process as part of an overall strategic balance-sheet restructuring." 

A filing with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of New Jersey states the company, whose brands include Del Monte, Contadina, College Inn, Kitchen Basics, JOYBA, Take Root Organics, and S&W, said it has both liabilities and assets estimated between $1 billion and $10 billion and secured $912.5 million in debtor-in-possession financing, including $165 million in new funding, from some of its current lenders. 

"This is a strategic step forward for Del Monte Foods. After a thorough evaluation of all available options, we determined a court-supervised sale process is the most effective way to accelerate our turnaround and create a stronger and enduring Del Monte Foods. With an improved capital structure, enhanced financial position and new ownership, we will be better positioned for long-term success," said Greg Longstreet, President and CEO of Del Monte Foods.

Longstreet continued, "While we have faced challenges intensified by a dynamic macroeconomic environment, Del Monte Foods has nourished families for nearly 140 years, and we remain committed to our mission of expanding access to nutritious, great-tasting food for all. I am deeply grateful to our employees, growers, customers and vendors, as well as our lenders for their support in helping us achieve our long-term goals."

Bloomberg noted, "The development ends a challenging year for the borrower that saw its parent company Del Monte Pacific Ltd. in June elect to skip a payment to the unit's lenders as part of a lawsuit settlement tied to a controversial debt restructuring."

Del Monte's operations date back to the mid-1880s, when California-based merchants began using the name "Del Monte" to market high-quality coffee for the Hotel Del Monte in Monterey. By 1892, it expanded to canned fruit and has since grown to control a sizeable portion of the U.S. canned food market. 

The good news is that Del Monte does not expect any supply shortages in the canned food market as a result of its bankruptcy proceedings.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 16:40

Ron Paul: A Big Beautiful Bill For The Military-Industrial Complex

Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute,

The US Senate worked through the weekend on the “Big Beautiful Bill.” The goal was to pass it quickly to ensure the House will then pass it and send it to President Trump’s desk before the July 4th holiday.

However, disagreements among Republican Senators over reductions in spending on programs including Medicaid and food stamps as well as language in the bill eliminating “clean energy” tax credits were preventing Senate Republican leadership from getting enough votes to pass the bill.

Also, some Republicans disagree with other Republicans in both the House and Senate on increasing the state and local tax (SALT) deduction. Many conservatives see this income tax deduction as encouraging states to maintain high taxes to fund big governments.

One item in the BBB that few Republicans are objecting to is the bill’s increase in military spending. The House version of the BBB added 150 billion dollars to the Pentagon’s already bloated budget. The Senate bill gave the military-industrial complex 156 billion dollars.

Increasing military spending contradicts President Trump’s promise to stop wasting money on endless wars that have nothing to do with ensuring the security of the American people.

Some of the BBB’s military spending will be used to put troops on the border. I support strengthening border security. However, I do not support using the military for domestic law enforcement, which includes enforcing immigration laws. Soldiers are trained to view people as potential enemies, not as innocent civilians to be protected. Introducing this mindset into domestic law enforcement will lead to abuses of liberty.

Increasing spending on militarism while cutting spending on programs that help low-income Americans is bad politics and bad policy. Polls show that the majority of Americans, including many Republicans, do not support overseas intervention.

The growing opposition to our hyper-interventionist foreign policy is easy to understand. The US has engaged in numerous military actions in many countries including Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria since the beginning of the 21st century. The American people pay for this militarism in several ways. One is the “inflation tax” imposed by the Federal Reserve in order to monetize the debt incurred by the US government for endless wars. President Trump has turned his back on his antiwar supporters by bombing Iran and by increasing military spending to over a trillion dollars.

The Republican insistence on increasing military spending is the main reason Congress cannot cut taxes without increasing the debt, making cuts in domestic welfare programs, or both. If the Republicans want to be the Make America Great Again party, they need to embrace a true America First foreign policy. This means no more regime change wars or US taxpayer supported “color revolutions.” Instead, America should return to the Founders’ vision of a country that, in the words of John Quincy Adams, does not go “abroad in search of monsters to destroy” and instead is “the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all” while “the champion and vindicator only of her own.”

A return to a noninterventionist foreign policy is the only way we will be able to begin to pay down the national debt and restore a government that adheres to the constitutional limits on its powers and respects all the people’s rights all the time.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 16:20

Japan Finally Admits Its Carmakers Have Been Paying All Trump Tariff Costs As Trade Talks Collapse

Last week, we sparked a stir within the financial community when we were the first to show, clearly and without doubt, that contrary to months of false narratives by the liberal "expert" class, the costs of Trump's tariffs are actually not borne by either US companies or US consumers, but rather by the exporting nation and its manufacturers. In this particular case, we showed that Japan's passenger car export prices to North America had plunged since Liberation Day, making it abundantly clear that it was indeed the Toyotas and Nissans of the world that were footing the bill of those extra $20 billion or so in month tariff revenues generated by the Trump admin.

well would you look at that: guess who is eating all those tariff costs (hint, it's not US consumers) pic.twitter.com/iwdKyeqTII

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 22, 2025

We were referencing Japan’s May trade data, which showed that car exports to the US declined 24.7% by value in May, but only 3.9% by volume, as Japanese carmakers took a big hit to their profits by slashing prices to maintain shipments and market share.

Yet this data was so very much against conventional wisdom and the fake mental models the TDS crew had constructed, that virtually not a single member of the anti-Trump echo chamber believed the findings, even when our discovery was presented by Congressman Bernie Moreno to the Fed chair a few days later as evidence that contrary to his fears, US inflation isn't soaring for the simple reason that costs are not being borne by domestic consumers (fast forward to 5 minutes in).

Powell didn’t comment when Dems sent inflation soaring with Covid lockdowns, vaccine mandates, LNG export bans, and massive tax hikes.

But he’s all too happy to attack President Trump’s trade agenda. He’s costing America 100s of billions and should resign. pic.twitter.com/GXPmQBcIPM

— Bernie Moreno (@berniemoreno) June 25, 2025

Yet still the TDS echo chamber would deny what was presented to them clear as day.

But fast forward to today, when we can finally lay this matter to rest.

This morning, none other than Japan's Nikkei, admitted that for the past three months it was none other than Japan's car industry that had been footing all the tariff-related costs following Trump's Liberation Day announcement.

According to the Nikkei, "Japanese automakers kept prices unchanged at first after the tariffs were imposed." It then goes on to state what our readers already knew, namely that "the unit price of Japanese automobile exports to the U.S. in May fell about 20% on the year, according to Japan's Ministry of Finance, indicating that Japanese automakers have been trying to absorb the cost of tariffs."

One correction to the esteemed Japanese media outlet: not "trying", but succeeding, simply because automakers have had no choice: sure, they could have hiked prices long ago but the outcome would be a collapse in demand for Japanese cars, with market share taken over by domestic producers and other, cheaper, foreign automakers. 

All of this is taking place as trade talk negotiations between the US and Japan are going nowhere, and in fact, Tokyo had gotten so emboldened by the theatrical standoff between Washington and Beijing, it thought it could get away with simply demanding away US tariffs. As a result, despite weeks of negotiation, the US-Japan teams have gotten nowhere with just one week left to go until the July 9 deadline, which is why Trump lashed out - in a very polite fashion - at the "spoiled" mercantilist Japan, which refuses to make any compromises.

“We dealt with Japan. I’m not sure if we’re going to make a deal. I doubt it with Japan — they’re very tough. You have to understand, they’re spoiled. I love Japan. I really like the new prime minister, too. Abe was one of my closest friends, as you know,” Trump said on Tuesday, referring to former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe who died in a 2022 assassination, explaining why there likely won't be a trade deal with Japan.

Trump noted this week that Japan has a rice crisis that has elevated prices, arguing the country should turn to the U.S. for rice. 

“But they and others are so spoiled from having ripped us off for 30, 40 years that it’s really hard for them to make a deal. You know, it’s very hard. As an example with Japan, they won’t take rice, and yet they desperately need rice,” he said. “They won’t take any cars, but they’ll sell millions. So, we told them, ‘Sorry you can’t do that.’”

The president said Japan will likely get a letter that would set the tariff rate ahead of the July 8 expiration of the 90-day pause on country-specific tariffs. Trump has said he will send letters soon to trading partners who haven’t struck deals.

“So what I’m going to do is I’ll write them a letter, say, ‘We thank you very much. We know you can’t do the kind of things that we need, and therefore you’ll pay a 30 percent, 35 percent or whatever the numbers that we determine,’” he said. “Because we also have a very big trade deficit with Japan, as you know and it’s very unfair to the American people.”

In other words, Trump has effectively assured Japan would be hit with across-the-board tariffs of up to 35% on its exports to the US, beyond the 24% penciled in on July 9. 

In response, Japan prime minister Ishiba said that American cars "are a tough sell in Japan" adding that his government needs to discuss with the US how to boost car imports from America.

“We can’t sell left-hand drive, huge, fuel-inefficient cars made in the US,” Ishiba said Wednesday, and he probably wasn't wrong. “We’ll discuss with the US how to produce better products and bring them into Japan, while considering Japan’s safety.” 

In a Fox News interview on Sunday, Trump lashed out at Japan over cars: “So we give Japan no cars. They won’t take our cars, right? And yet we take millions and millions of their cars into the United States. It’s not fair."

So what does Japan do now? Well, after eating billions of dollars in losses for months, the local carmakers are literally on the verge of collapse, and they are now trial ballooning that they have no choice but to do what everyone assumed they would do from day one: raise prices.

According to the Nikkei, Subaru and Mitsubishi Motors have started to raise prices while Mazda Motor is exploring doing so (none of this is actually reflected stateside yet). According to the Nikkei, "they have little choice but to raise prices, having reached their limit in absorbing cost increases."

Which is precisely what we warned back in March when we said that "Japanese Carmakers Face Catastrophic Profit Hit From Trump's Auto Tariffs." Well, the profit hit is here, and in a few weeks it will translate into one of the biggest recessions Japan has ever faces in modern history, forcing the BOJ to unleash an unprecedented stimulus, while pushing rates back to zero or negative.

And since Tokyo will be back to resorting to the oldest trick in the book, namely sending the yen crashing to offset the tariff costs - we fully expect USDJPY to hit 160 in the next 6 months - Trump is about to get a whole lot angrier at Japan and its soon-to-crash currency, at which point the world will finally move on from trade wars to currency wars and capital controls.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 15:43

Iranian Hackers Say They Have 100GB Of Trump Emails

Authored by José Niño via Headline USA,

Hackers claiming ties to Iran say they possess 100GB of emails from President Donald Trump’s inner circle and may soon leak or sell the trove, after previously distributing a batch to the media before the 2024 U.S. election.

In online conversations with Reuters on Sunday and Monday, the hackers—who use the pseudonym “Robert”—claimed to possess about 100 gigabytes of emails from the accounts of “White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Trump lawyer Lindsey Halligan, Trump adviser Roger Stone and porn star-turned-Trump antagonist Stormy Daniels.”

Robert mentioned the potential of selling the material but did not provide further details about their plans or the content of the emails.

U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi described the breach as “an unconscionable cyber-attack.”

The White House and FBI responded with a statement from FBI Director Kash Patel, who said:

“Anyone associated with any kind of breach of national security will be fully investigated and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.”

The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) posted on X that “This so-called cyber ‘attack’ is nothing more than digital propaganda, and the targets are no coincidence. This is a calculated smear campaign meant to damage President Trump and discredit honorable public servants who serve our country with distinction”

A hostile foreign adversary is threatening to illegally exploit purportedly stolen and unverified material in an effort to distract, discredit, and divide. This so-called cyber ‘attack’ is nothing more than digital propaganda, and the targets are no coincidence. This is a… https://t.co/P30ZqhZMq0

— Homeland Security (@DHSgov) July 1, 2025

Robert first appeared during the final months of the 2024 presidential campaign, claiming to have breached the email accounts of several Trump allies, including Wiles, and subsequently distributed emails to journalists.

Reuters authenticated some of the leaked material, including an email that appeared to show a financial arrangement between Trump and lawyers for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., now Trump’s health secretary.

Other documents included Trump campaign communications about Republican candidates and discussions of settlement negotiations with Daniels. Although the leaks received some media attention, they did not fundamentally alter the outcome of the presidential race, which Trump won.

A September 2024 indictment from the U.S. Justice Department alleged that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards ran the Robert hacking operation.

After Trump’s election, Robert told Reuters that no more leaks were planned. As recently as May, the hackers said, “I am retired, man.” However, the group resumed communication after the recent 12-day air war between Israel and Iran, which ended with U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites. In recent messages, Robert said they were organizing a sale of the stolen emails and wanted Reuters to “broadcast this matter.”

Frederick Kagan, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, commented that Iranian spies may be seeking retaliation through means unlikely to provoke further U.S. or Israeli military action, stating, “A default explanation is that everyone’s been ordered to use all the asymmetric stuff that they can that’s not likely to trigger a resumption of major Israeli/U.S. military activity. Leaking a bunch more emails is not likely to do that.”

Despite concerns about potential digital attacks, Iran’s hackers maintained a low profile during the conflict, though U.S. cyber officials warned that American companies and critical infrastructure operators might still be at risk from Iranian operations.

Over the last year, American-Iranian relations has reached new lows. Headline USA has reported on multiple instances of alleged Iranian plots to assassinate Trump, all in an effort to get the United States into a direct confrontation with Iran.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 15:20

Establishment Democrats Created The Conditions For A Socialist Victory

Authored by Connor O'Keefe via The Mises Institute,

Last week, democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani pulled off an upset and beat the establishment’s preferred candidate, Andrew Cuomo, in the Democratic primary for New York City’s mayoral election.

The race drew a lot of attention, in part because New York City is massive, and its mayor governs over more people than the governors of 39 states. But mainly, the primary gave us both the first major piece of electoral data since the election last November and a window into who is winning the struggle for the future of the Democratic Party.

Many have, appropriately, expressed horror that the earliest signs of a successful strategy for the party that’s been floundering since its loss to Trump has been embracing socialism.

Socialism is an evil system built on the violation of people’s rights. It also destroys societies and economies because it tries to ignore fundamental aspects of human action and economic law. Anyone who is at all concerned about the well-being of their communities, their nation, and their descendants should completely oppose any step towards socialism.

And make no mistake, Zohran Mamdani is a full-on socialist. He did not campaign on turning the means of production over to the workers but has been clear that he believes in that end goal and views watering down the message as a strategic necessity in the longer effort to make socialism more palatable for the public. And still, as William L. Anderson wrote last week, his policies only stand to hurt the people of New York City.

It’s clear that the political establishment is not happy about Zohran’s victory. It’s important to understand that, as terrible as they are, establishment politicians do not want America immediately transformed into a full-on socialist country. These folks are ripping the American people off. They’ve built a relatively stable redistribution scheme that benefits them. They do not want their property seized, their ill-gotten profits socialized, and the economy they rely on for their wealth and power to be run into the ground by a socialist revolution.

What the current political class wants is a steady but unyielding expansion of government that makes them and their friends richer while granting them more power and control over more of our lives. While they push the pace during emergencies, they clearly understand that moving too fast puts the entire racket at risk. And to them, politicians like Zohran Mamdani are moving too fast.

His platform calls for a level of government intervention beyond what Democrats typically campaign on these days.

He ran on freezing the rent for the approximately two million rent-controlled apartments in the city, establishing government-owned grocery stores that would sell price-controlled produce, and raising the city’s minimum wage to $30.

Establishment Democrats may be upset that a candidate won on a platform they disapprove of, but the blame for this falls squarely on their own shoulders.

The political establishment—in New York City and nationally—has created the conditions for the rising popularity of socialism that they’re now acting concerned about.

Although he is a committed socialist, Zohran’s entire campaign was built around a straightforward point: that the cost of living is way too high. That is true. While most of New York will always face relatively higher prices as long as a lot of people want to live in a city built on islands with limited space, the establishment Democrats that have been running the city’s government for decades have done a lot to force prices up a lot higher.

The city government creates shortages in most local industries with heavy licensing requirements for businesses and regulations on the behavior of vendors and consumers alike. Decades of rent control and limits on development have created a shortage of residences that make the houses and apartments that are available significantly more expensive. And the city’s high taxes have already caused many of the highest-income earners to leave.

And that isn’t unique to New York. The political establishment in many states and, especially at the national level, has been making life artificially expensive for most people with heavy interventionism and a crony, government-run monetary system that benefits the political class and well-connected rich at the expense of everyday Americans.

Most people can tell that the high cost of living we’re facing today is not due to some natural disaster or recent material constraint but is a byproduct of unnecessary policies. All Zohran had to do to win was run a campaign that spoke to that sentiment, prioritized it, and presented solutions that sounded different enough from the usual buzzwords and hollow promises the New York establishment has been repeating for decades.

And establishment Democrats are powerless to stop him because, in New York City and beyond, they have spent virtually every waking moment denying that there are any bad consequences to the many government interventions they have pushed for and enacted.

Establishment Democrats have dismissed the many economists who warned about the consequences of rent control for places like New York. And they quickly instituted a massive federal ban on evictions, including for non-payment of rent, during the covid pandemic with no concern about the potential downsides. So, from that standpoint, why can’t there be a rent freeze for New York apartments?

They’ve also helped the government take over many of the most important services in society, such as education, transportation, and the protection of persons and property—all while ridiculing those who argued that the quality of these services would decline while they also became overly expensive. And when, in every single circumstance, that is precisely what happened, establishment Democrats pretended like everything was fine. But if it were, why then couldn’t the government take on more services, such as providing food?

And finally, establishment Democrats have completely denied that the law of demand applies to wage labor and brushed off any concern that raising the minimum wage has any negative effects whatsoever. Why, then, can’t the minimum wage be $30?

The answer is that the establishment Democrats are lying. There are bad consequences to all these policies. Holding the price of rent down and protecting people who don’t pay from eviction creates shortages that make housing more expensive for everyone. Removing the pressures of the profit-and-loss system protects low-quality and inefficient service providers from the consequences of providing poor or overly expensive service. And making low-wage jobs illegal destroys those jobs. That creates shortages, which make everything more expensive, but it especially hurts the people who have no alternative besides the now illegal low-wage jobs.

As long as we continue to find ourselves in an artificial cost of living crisis with political leaders who insist that government intervention can essentially eliminate poverty without any real downsides, the “what are we waiting for” interventionism of socialists like Zohran Mamdani will only get more popular—to the detriment of us all.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 14:40

"Unacceptable" - US Officials Slam Iran's Suspending Cooperation With UN Nuclear Watchdog

Update (1430ET): That didn't take long.

US State Department officials have reportedly said that Iran's suspension of cooperation with IAEA is "unacceptable", adding that Iran must cooperate fully without further delay.

UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric also chimed in, saying that Iran’s suspension of its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is “obviously concerning"

“We’ve seen the official decision, which is obviously concerning. I think the Secretary-General has been very consistent in his call for Iran to cooperate with the IAEA, and, frankly, for all countries to work closely with the IAEA on nuclear issues,” he told reporters.

*  *  *

In an official move which could bring Tehran into further conflict with the United States, Israel, and the West, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has signed a law which breaks all cooperation with the the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), following Israeli and US large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last month.

"Masoud Pezeshkian promulgated the law suspending cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency," Iranian state TV confirmed Wednesday.

Via Reuters

The announcement comes on the heels of Iranian parliament's initial decision last week to halt cooperation with the nuclear watchdog and monitoring body, a move triggered by Israel's surprise attack on the Islamic Republic which began on June 13.

Nearly two weeks of war followed, capped by the Trump-ordered B-2 bomber raids and huge attacks on the three key nuclear facilities of Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan.

Under the new parliamentary resolution, IAEA inspectors will need approval from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council before any access to nuclear facilities is given.

The IAEA merely said in response that it was "aware of these reports" of Tehran suspending cooperation and is waiting for formal communication from Iranian leaders.

Earlier this week, Iran’s foreign minister declared that IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, whom Iranian officials have fiercely criticized for not condemning the Israeli and US attacks, as Persona non grata.

There was also this recent alarming diplomatic fiasco centered on Grossi and threats by an Iranian newspaper:

Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations said Sunday that Tehran poses no threat to the head of the UN nuclear watchdog nor its inspectors, after an Iranian newspaper claimed that Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi was an Israeli spy and called for him to be executed.

Iran’s ultra-conservative Kayhan newspaper recently alleged that unspecified documents showed Grossi to be an Israeli spy.

“It should therefore be officially announced that he will be tried and executed upon arrival in Iran for spying for the Mossad and participating in the murder of the oppressed people of our country,” the newspaper said.

“No, there is not any threat” against the inspectors or the director general, Iran’s Ambassador to the UN Amir Saeid Iravani said in an interview with US broadcaster CBS. The ambassador said inspectors in Iran were “in safe conditions.”

Just the day prior to Israel's surprise assault on Iran using dozens of warplanes, Tehran officials were outraged with a rejected a June 12 resolution from the IAEA board that accused Iran of failing to meet its nuclear obligations.

Iranian authorities then alleged this resolution served as one of the "pretexts" used to justify the Israeli and later US attacks on its nuclear facilities, which Tehran has maintained is solely for nuclear energy purposes.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 14:20

Wisconsin Supreme Court Votes 4–3 To Invalidate State Abortion Law

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The Wisconsin Supreme Court voted 4–3 on July 2 to strike down the state’s 176-year-old almost-total ban on abortion.

Justice Rebecca Frank Dallet wrote the majority opinion.

“We conclude that comprehensive legislation enacted over the last 50 years regulating in detail the ‘who, what, where, when, and how’ of abortion so thoroughly covers the entire subject of abortion that it was meant as a substitute for the 19th century near-total ban on abortion,” Dallet wrote.

“Accordingly, we hold that the legislature impliedly repealed [Section] 940.04(1) as to abortion, and that [Section] 940.04(1) therefore does not ban abortion in the State of Wisconsin.”

The new ruling came three years after the U.S. Supreme Court issued its ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. Dobbs overturned Roe v. Wade (1973), holding that the U.S. Constitution does not guarantee a right to abortion. The rule returned the regulation of the procedure to the states.

The Dobbs ruling prompted a blizzard of state-level legislation either to restrict or preserve abortion access.

Planned Parenthood, along with several women using pseudonyms, asked the court in February 2024 to invalidate Wisconsin’s current abortion law.

They argued that it violated the rights of patients and medical doctors under the state’s constitution.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court agreed in July 2024 to hear two lawsuits challenging the state’s 1849 abortion law. The statute states that anyone “other than the mother, who intentionally destroys the life of an unborn child is guilty” of a felony.

“In granting this case, this court is doing what many other state courts have done, both before and after Dobbs v. Jackson—considering a state constitutional challenge to an abortion-related statute,” Justice Jill Karofsky wrote in the court order a year ago.

“Deciding important state constitutional questions is not unusual - it’s this court’s job.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 14:00

Iran Reportedly Made Plans To Litter Strait Of Hormuz With Naval Mines

The U.S. launched "Operation Midnight Hammer" on June 22, deploying stealth bombers to strike Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan using Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs. President Trump declared the sites were "totally obliterated." In retaliation, Iran's parliament voted to authorize the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical maritime chokepoint through which 20% of the world's oil flows—sparking renewed anxiety among global energy traders over the threat to vital tanker lanes.

As readers understand, any move by Iran to close the critical waterway would instantly disrupt nearly one-fifth of the world's oil shipments and trigger substantial—and potentially cascading—economic harm (energy inflation) worldwide. However, those threats ultimately fell short in the days that followed, and Brent crude futures have since returned to the $67-a-barrel level, effectively roundtripping the entire move.

Iran has several military and asymmetric tools at its disposal to disrupt or close the Strait of Hormuz, including:

• Naval Mines

• Fast Attack Boats & Swarm Tactics

• Anti-Ship Missiles

• Submarine Operations

• Seizing or Boarding Tankers

• Shore-Based Artillery or Rocket Attacks or Drone Strikes 

• GPS Scrambling 

• Cyberattacks on Port Infrastructure

• Coordinated Proxy Attacks

In the lead-up to and during Operation Midnight Hammer, widespread GPS interference was reported across the Strait of Hormuz. Multiple sources we highlighted indicated a noticeable slowdown in tanker traffic, as navigation systems were degraded and insurance premiums for vessels surged.

A new Reuters report, citing anonymous U.S. officials, reveals that intelligence indicated Tehran was preparing to blockade the Strait of Hormuz using one of its most effective and low-cost tactics: littering the narrow shipping corridor with naval mines.

More color on the report:

The previously unreported preparations, which were detected by U.S. intelligence, occurred some time after Israel launched its initial missile attack against Iran on June 13, said the officials, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters.

The loading of the mines - which have not been deployed in the strait - suggests that Tehran may have been serious about closing one of the world's busiest shipping lanes, a move that would have escalated an already-spiraling conflict and severely hobbled global commerce.

. . . 

Reuters was not able to determine precisely when during the Israel-Iran air war Tehran loaded the mines, which - if deployed - would have effectively stopped ships from moving through the key thoroughfare.

It is also unclear if the mines have since been unloaded.

The sources did not disclose how the United States determined that the mines had been put on the Iranian vessels, but such intelligence is typically gathered through satellite imagery, clandestine human sources or a combination of both methods.

. . .

The two officials said the U.S. government has not ruled out the possibility that loading the mines was a ruse. The Iranians could have prepared the mines to convince Washington that Tehran was serious about closing the strait, but without intending to do so, the officials said.

Israel's 12-day war with Iran and Tehran's ultimately hollow threat (so far) to close the Strait of Hormuz appear to have had limited lasting impact on global oil markets, reflected in Brent crude trading around $68 on Wednesday afternoon.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 13:40

RFK Jr. Says Officials 'Revolutionizing The Vaccine Injury Compensation Program'

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Federal officials are working on revamping the program that provides compensation for people who suffer injuries from vaccines, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said on June 30.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington on June 24, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

“We just brought a guy in this week who is going to be revolutionizing the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program,” Kennedy said during an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson.

The National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program was established as part of the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act of 1986. That law also granted vaccine manufacturers immunity from lawsuits. Under the program, injury claims are lodged with judges, who decide whether to grant payouts after hearing from petitioners and the government.

Department of Justice attorneys, representing the Department of Health and Human Services—the department Kennedy heads—often present evidence opposing the claims.

The program has since 2006 awarded money, drawn from surcharges on vaccines to more than 13,000 people.

Claims of injury from COVID-19 vaccines are currently filed with the Countermeasures Injury Compensation Program, a separate program established by a 2005 law. The Department of Health solely administers that program by receiving petitions, analyzing them, and making determinations, creating what researchers said in 2022 was a potential conflict of interest.

The department has rejected claims from some people whose doctors diagnosed them with vaccine injuries, The Epoch Times reported in 2023. Just 39 COVID-19 vaccine claims have been compensated as of June 1, with all but four receiving less than $9,000.

Multiple lawmakers and lawyers have advocated moving COVID-19 vaccines to the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program so that people with injuries have a better chance of receiving compensation and, if they’re paid, can receive more money.

“We’re looking at ways to enlarge that program so that COVID-vaccine-injured people can be compensated,” Kennedy told Carlson.

Kennedy also said officials are looking at methods to enlarge the statute of limitations, which is currently only three years.

“A lot of people don’t discover their injuries until after that,” he said.

“And there’s no discovery in that program, there’s no rules of evidence. The program has devolved into lawyers from the justice—you’re not suing the vaccine company, you’re petitioning my agency, and it’s represented traditionally by the Department of Justice—and the lawyers in the Department of Justice, the leaders of it were corrupt, and ... they saw their job as protecting the trust fund rather than taking care of people who made this national sacrifice. And we’re going to change all that.”

The Department of Justice did not respond to a request for comment.

Safety of mRNA

Carlson asked Kennedy later about whether he’s satisfied that messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) technology is safe.

“I am not satisfied,” Kennedy said. “My opinion about that is irrelevant, but we will be doing those studies, and I would say there’s a lot of skepticism in this agency about mRNA vaccines.”

Two of the three vaccines against COVID-19 utilize mRNA technology, while regulators with the Food and Drug Administration, a division of Kennedy’s department, recently approved a third for certain populations. They said the vaccine protects against COVID-19 and that recipients have a small chance of suffering side effects.

Regulators previously approved the two existing vaccines after clinical trials found they conferred shielding against COVID-19. Participants who received a vaccine were more likely to experience adverse events such as headaches.

Some additional safety issues have since been identified, including heart inflammation.

Kennedy said that safety studies “simply have not been done, but there is [sic] enough anecdotal reports of people getting profound injuries that may or may not be associated with it, and we’re going to answer those questions.”

A Department of Health and Human Services spokesperson told The Epoch Times in May that “mRNA technology remains under-tested” and has been linked to “legitimate safety concerns.”

The vaccine manufacturers have maintained that their vaccines are safe and effective.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 13:20

Not Just The EPA: Despite Warnings, Biden's Energy Department Disbursed $42 Billion In Its Final Hours

Authored by James Varney via RealClearInvestigations,

In its last two working days, the Biden administration’s Energy Department signed off on nearly $42 billion for green energy projects – a sum that exceeded the total amount its Loan Programs Office (LPO) had put out in the past decade.

The frenzied activity on Jan. 16 and 17, 2025, capped a spending binge that saw the LPO approve at least $93 billion in current and future disbursements after Vice President Kamala Harris lost the 2024 election in November, according to documents provided by the department to RealClearInvestigations. It appears that Biden officials were rushing to deploy billions in approved funding in anticipation that the incoming Trump administration would seek to redirect uncommitted money away from clean energy projects.

The agreements were made despite a warning from the department’s inspector general, urging the loan office to suspend operations in December over concerns that post-election loans could present conflicts of interest. 

In just a few months, some of the deals have already become dicey, leading to fears that the Biden administration has created multiple Solyndras, the green energy company that went bankrupt after the Obama administration gave it $570 million. These deals include:

• Sunnova, a rooftop solar outfit that thus far had $382 million of its $3.3 billion loan guaranteed, filed for bankruptcy this month. The company did not respond to a request for comment.
• Li-Cycle, a battery recycling facility, had a $445 million loan approved in November, but since then, the company was put up for sale and has filed for bankruptcy. The Energy Department said no money has been disbursed on that deal. Li-Cycle did not respond to a request for comment.
• A $705 million loan was approved on Jan. 17 for Zum Energy, an electric school bus company in California, and its “Project Marigold.” At $350,000 and more, electric school buses currently cost more than twice as much as their diesel counterparts. So far, Zum has received $21.7 million from the government, according to usaspending.gov. The company did not respond to a request for comment.
• A $9.63 billion Blue Oval SK loan on Jan. 16 was the second largest post-election deal, topped only by a $15 billion loan the next day to Pacific Gas & Electric, with most of that for renewables. The Blue Oval project in Kentucky – a joint venture between Ford Motor Co. and a South Korean entity – has been dealing with numerous workplace complaints, and construction of a second EV battery manufacturing plant there has been delayed. More than $7 billion has been obligated on that deal, according to the Energy Department. Blue Oval did not respond to a request for comment.

The money and the hasty way in which it was earmarked have drawn the attention of the Trump administration. “It is extremely concerning how many dozens of billions of dollars were rushed out the door without proper due diligence in the final days of the Biden administration,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a statement to RCI. “DOE is undertaking a thorough review of financial assistance that identifies waste of taxpayer dollars.”

The enormous sums came from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which injected $400 billion into the LPO, a previously sleepy Energy Department branch originally intended to spur nuclear energy projects. That total represented more than 10 times the amount the LPO had ever committed in any fiscal year of its existence. Prior to the post-election blowout, the office’s biggest fiscal year was 2024, when it committed $34.8 billion, records show.

Even with the rush to push billions out the door in its last months, close to $300 billion of the Inflation Reduction Act money remains uncommitted by the LPO. Trump administration officials have already nixed some smaller deals. Secretary Wright recently urged Congress to keep the money in place as the LPO now aims to use it to further the Trump administration’s energy policy, particularly with nuclear projects.

That unprecedented gusher of cash from the LPO echoes the efforts of the Biden administration’s Environmental Protection Agency to push $20 billion out the door before it left office. As RCI has previously reported, the EPA – which had never been a consequential grant-making operation – was tasked with awarding $27 billion in Inflation Reduction Act funding through the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund and Solar For All programs. It did so in less than six months in 2024, including an unorthodox arrangement in which Biden officials parked some $20 billion outside the Treasury’s control. That money was earmarked for a handful of nonprofits, some of which had skimpy assets and were linked with politically connected directors.

The LPO’s post-election bonanza was put together in even less time. The Energy Department deals, however, involve mostly for-profit enterprises, which raises questions about whether the Biden administration was propping up companies that would not have survived in the private marketplace. Should any of the companies hit it big in the future, shareholders could get rich, while taxpayers will receive only the interest on the loan.

“The loan office should not be in the virtual venture business,” said Mark Mills, executive director of the National Center on Energy Analytics. “But in a few cases, it could make sense to serve as a catalyst or backstop for viable and important projects from a national security or policy perspective.”

RCI spoke with several Trump administration officials who declined to comment on the record, given the extensive ongoing review of both the LPO’s post-election arrangements and other Energy Department projects linked to Biden’s climate agenda.

“They wanted to get the billions to companies that probably wouldn’t exist unless they could get money from the government,” one current official said. “The business plans, such as they were, were ‘how do we secure capital from the government?’”

During Biden’s tenure, the office was run by Jigar Shah, who on June 17 was named to the board of directors of the nonprofit Center for Sustainable Energy. Bloomberg News reported last month that Shah “helped select roughly 400 companies with development plans to receive grants and loans upwards of $100 million each.” In response to the Trump administration’s pushback on green subsidies, Bloomberg reported that Shah is working to help some of the companies he bankrolled shift operations to Europe.

The Center relies chiefly on government contracts instead of donations, and it saw that revenue jump from $274.1 million in 2023 to more than $500 million in 2024, according to tax records. The center did not respond to a request to speak with Shah.

Thus far, no entity has received the entire amount of the deals the Biden administration struck since last November, according to the Energy Department and usaspending.gov. In a handful of cases, companies have come to the current administration and opted out of the deals.

Still, millions of taxpayer dollars have already been distributed, in some instances, to deals the department listed as “conditional commitments.”  Wright has said there are “reasons to be worried and suspicious” about the post-election binge, and vowed some of the deals will be scrubbed. 

In 2023, the Biden administration made subtle changes to the LPO’s regulations, cutting strings and stipulations that traditionally attach to loans. Consequently, the office cut deals after the election on terms more favorable to the recipient than the taxpayer, and in several cases, making a “conditional commitment” the same as a loan, according to Trump officials. The changes also moved money that a later administration could have cut into “obligated” silos, making the deals harder to cancel, according to the current Energy Department.

“Essentially, they had the Loan Program Office operating like a graveyard energy venture capital fund,” one Trump official told RCI. “This was all tied to the religious fervor for any green energy project in the prior administration, and the goal was not to get the government repaid but to advance the ‘green new deal.’”

The $93 billion under review represents a separate “green bank” from smaller Biden administration deals that the Energy Department has already canceled. Last month, the Government Accounting Office said the department was not on track to “issue loans and guarantees before billions of dollars of new funding expires.”

As part of the review, Wright issued policy guidelines in May that he said offer more protection to taxpayers. The department may now require significantly more information from loan recipients and applicants, such as “a project’s financial health, a project’s technological and engineering viability, market conditions, compliance with award terms and conditions and compliance with legal requirements, including those related to national security.”

The department declined to provide the terms of specific deals, again citing the ongoing review. Trump administration officials claim the business plans for many of these deals were threadbare, that term sheets were essentially tossed out, and the entire process could be described, in the words of a Biden EPA official in December, as “throwing gold bars” off the Titanic “as an insurance policy against Trump winning.”

Despite these dubious outcomes and the alleged removal of taxpayer protections that accompanied the deals, Trump administration officials said they remain committed to the LPO. The office has a valuable role to play in fulfilling energy policy goals, which include nuclear projects, strengthening the nation’s power grid, and limiting the U.S. reliance on Chinese supply chains for key minerals and elements.

“It’s as if you went away and the kids threw a rager in the house,” one official told RCI. “You may need some new furniture and the like, but it’s still a really nice home. The Office can be a critical resource for the manufacturing base of this country, and our goal is not to end the LPO but to improve it.”

The Trump administration could face some of the same financial issues if it rejiggers the LPO along lines that support its energy policy goals, particularly within the nuclear industry. Projects there have been marred by unprofitable plants and massive cost overruns and delays in construction, making federal loans to the section inherently risky. 

Prominent voices – and investors –  like Bill Gates have also encouraged the government to back new sources of energy and minerals. Geothermal projects are one such field, and there appears to be bipartisan support in Washington for capital that will shore up U.S. energy independence. On Jan. 15, the Biden administration approved a $1.2 billion “conditional commitment” with a subsidiary of EnergySource Minerals LLC (ESM), which hopes to extract lithium from geothermal brine.

A deal with ioneer Ltd. appears to match some of the professed goals of the Trump administration, but it has also been plagued by financial setbacks since Biden’s LPO approved it in its final days. The company's deal grew from an original $700 million "conditional commitment" in 2023, to the $996 million approved on Jan. 17, 2025."

The Rhyolite Ridge project is a mining and manufacturing center in Nevada to produce lithium and boron. Those elements have implications for defense and national security in addition to energy, according to ioneer Vice President Chad Yeftich. 

“Ioneer believes government policy should encourage projects if we want critical minerals developed domestically,” Yeftich said. “Time is the key risk for development as China continues to provide financial support to its critical minerals industry and dump critical minerals into the market thereby depressing the price.”

Yeftich noted Rhyolite Ridge has secured $200 million in private capital, but in February, its chief private equity partner broke ties with the project. Finance professionals familiar with big deals told RCI that such a rupture so close in timing to the loan would likely deep-six the arrangement, but Trump officials said Biden’s LPO stripped such boilerplate language from many of the post-election deals. 

Secretary Wright told RCI that these maneuvers suggested the previous administration was more interested in disbursing funds than protecting taxpayers. “Any reputable business would have a process in place for evaluating spending and investments before money goes out the door, and the American people deserve no less from their federal government.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 12:40

July 4th Gas Prices Lowest In 4 Years

Authored by Wesley Brown via The Epoch Times,

Nearly 72 million people are expected to travel during the Fourth of July holiday, likely leading to crowded highway traffic and congested airports across the United States. However, holiday travelers should also see lower gas prices and airfares as they go to their Independence Day destinations, experts say.

Nationally, AAA Travel, the travel‐services arm of the American Automobile Association, forecasts that 72.2 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home during the Independence Day holiday period from June 28 to July 6. This year’s domestic travel projection is 1.7 million more travelers than last year and 7 million more than in 2019.

“Summertime is one of the busiest travel seasons of the year, and July 4th is one of the most popular times to get away,” Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel, said.

“Following Memorial Day’s record forecast, AAA is seeing strong demand for road trips and air travel over Independence Day week. With the holiday falling on a Friday, travelers have the option of making it a long weekend or taking the entire week to make memories with family and friends.”

AAA’s annual Independence Day forecast now includes two weekends instead of one, better reflecting the flow of holiday travelers, officials said. However, the U.S. Transportation Security Administration’s travel projections for the airline industry run from July 1 through July 7, with the highest passenger volume—about 2.9 million—expected on July 6.

According to Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officials, airports across the United States expect the highest passenger numbers ever for the nation’s 249th birthday. TSA staff at airports nationwide said they are prepared to screen more than 18.5 million travelers at the country’s security checkpoints.

Already on June 22, the TSA reported that it screened nearly 3.1 million travelers, the busiest single day number in the agency’s history, and more than 40 days after REAL ID enforcement came into full force at airport checkpoints nationwide on May 7.

“TSA continues to work closely with our industry partners and ensure our airport security checkpoints are fully staffed and prepared to handle the heavy rush of traffic,” TSA acting Administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill said in a statement provided to The Epoch Times.

“We are deploying technologies and procedures to improve security and enhance the passenger experience, including for families. We ask travelers to pack their patience, especially during peak travel days, as we work to provide maximum hospitality to our customers,” McNeil said, noting that nearly 94 percent of passengers are presenting a REAL ID or another acceptable form of ID to travel domestically in the United States.

Ahead of the holiday travel season, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is predicting the busiest Fourth of July week in 15 years, with July 3 expected to see more than 51,000 domestic and international flights. Airlines for America (A4A) is also forecasting another record-breaking summer travel season, projecting that the nation’s top airlines will carry 272 million passengers from June 1 through August 31.

To accommodate this demand, A4A spokeswoman Amanda Maile told The Epoch Times that U.S. airlines are operating 27,000 flights daily—up by 4 percent from last year.

“Premium and international demand this summer are expected to remain strong, with the top foreign destinations for U.S. airlines projected to be Mexico, Canada, Dominican Republic, United Kingdom and Italy,” she said.

Meanwhile, U.S. motorists on the busy highways will notice slightly higher gas prices compared to a month ago, but still significantly lower than the Fourth of July travel period in 2024, according to AAA’s weekly gas price report.

As of this week, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is $3.22, five cents more than a month ago before crude oil prices started rising again after U.S. airstrikes targeted Iran nuclear facilities.

However, pump prices remain 27 cents cheaper than this time last year and the lowest for the July 4th weekend since 2021...

The nation’s 10 most expensive gasoline markets are California ($4.62), Hawaii ($4.47), Washington ($4.45), Oregon ($4.06), Nevada ($3.81), Alaska ($3.74), Illinois ($3.49), Idaho ($3.43), Pennsylvania ($3.39), and Utah ($3.37).

The 10 least expensive markets are Mississippi ($2.73), Oklahoma ($2.81), Texas ($2.82), Tennessee ($2.82), Louisiana ($2.82), Arkansas ($2.83), Alabama ($2.84), Missouri ($2.85), South Carolina ($2.91), and Kansas ($2.91).

For electric vehicle drivers, the national average price per kilowatt-hour of electricity at a public EV charging station remained steady this past week at 36 cents, according to AAA data.

The top 10 most expensive states for EV charging rates per hour are West Virginia (51 cents), Alaska (51 cents), Tennessee (47 cents), Montana (46 cents), Hawaii (45 cents), North Dakota (42 cents), New Hampshire (42 cents), Kentucky (42 cents), South Carolina (42 cents), and Louisiana (42 cents).

The nation’s top 10 least expensive states for EV rates during the holiday are Kansas (26 cents), Missouri (27 cents), Maryland (27 cents), Nebraska (30 cents), Delaware (30 cents), Utah (30 cents), Iowa (32 cents), Washington, D.C. (32 cents), Colorado (33 cents), and North Carolina (33 cents).

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 11:25

Trump Announces Trade Deal With Vietnam; Includes 20% Tariffs, 40% Tax On Transshipping

With just one week left until the July 9 trade deal deadline, which some suspect could have a similar adverse impact on markets as the first Liberation Day - even if stocks are completely oblivious to the risk - moments ago Trump gave a stark reminder just how high the trade stakes are when he announced that the US has made a trade deal with Vietnam.

According to the terms, Vietnam will pay the United States:

• 20% Tariff on any and all goods sent into our Territory,
• 40% Tariff on any Transshipping, which is squarely aimed at China which uses Vietnam as a reshipment/tolling hub.  

Of the two, one can argue that the transshipment clause is more important because in recent weeks China had threatened that any country that makes a deal with the US at its expense would make it very angry. Which means that Xi is now terribly vexed. 

 

In any case, in return for the tariffs, Trump said that "Vietnam will do something that they have never done before, give the United States of America TOTAL ACCESS to their Markets for Trade. In other words, they will “OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES,” meaning that, we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff."

Which is hardly a big deal, since the US barely exports to Vietnam.

what does matter is that a deal has been struck however, and now many other Asian countries will scramble to do the same, even if it is at terms that antagonize China (like in this case). Amusingly,  Trump said that as a result of the deal, US SUVs will be a "wonderful addition" to various product lines within Vietnam.

It is my opinion that the SUV or, as it is sometimes referred to, Large Engine Vehicle, which does so well in the United States, will be a wonderful addition to the various product lines within Vietnam. Dealing with General Secretary To Lam, which I did personally, was an absolute pleasure. 

While stocks initially dipped on seeing the 20% print, they have since rebounded and recovered all losses, and trade at session highs, as algos remain completely oblivious that behind the scenes, huge tension is once again building up between the US and China, which is negotiating deals that Beijing will view as offensive, making the odds of an actual trade deal with Beijing much lower than most expect. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 11:04

Centene Crashes Most On Record, Sparks Selloff In Managed Care Stocks

Update (1100ET):

Centene, one of the largest health insurers in the U.S., crashed in early trading in New York after withdrawing its 2025 guidance, citing new data from an independent actuarial firm that revealed weaker-than-expected trends in its Affordable Care Act marketplaces and mounting Medicaid costs.

Shares in New York crashed as much as 40% by 10:30 a.m. ET—marking the largest single-day decline in the stock's history. Centene first traded in its initial public offering on December 13, 2001, at $14 per share.

Roundtrip.

Latest analyst ratings via Bloomberg data.

Who owns the most of Centene stock?

Centene's shockwave sparked selling across the healthcare sector. 

*  *  * 

 

Centene shares crashed in premarket trading after the health insurer withdrew its 2025 guidance due to weaker-than-expected trends in the Affordable Care Act Marketplace and ongoing Medicaid cost pressures. The health insurer warned of a $1.8 billion earnings headwind, prompting downgrades from Wall Street. 

Centene, one of the largest health insurers in the U.S., disclosed on Tuesday evening new data from an independent actuarial firm, Wakely, covering about 72% of its ACA Marketplace membership, revealed significantly worse-than-expected results.

Wakely's data reveals:

• Lower-than-expected market growth and

• Much higher aggregate morbidity than Centene had assumed for its risk adjustment revenue.

As a result, Centene now preliminarily estimates a $1.8 billion reduction in its net risk adjustment revenue for 2025, translating into a $2.75 hit to adjusted diluted EPS. According to FactSet data, Wall Street analysts had expected full-year adjusted earnings of around $7.28 a share. 

"The Company does not have information or estimates for its remaining seven Marketplace states, but anticipates, due to the morbidity trends observed in the 22 states, an additional reduction to its net risk adjustment revenue transfer expectation with a corresponding adjusted diluted EPS impact," Centene stated in a press release.

Another industry bellwether, UnitedHealth, recently slashed its full-year guidance and replaced its chief executive. Higher-than-expected medical costs have sparked broader concerns across the entire insurance sector.

Analysts were full of gloom, with UBS cutting its rating on Centene to neutral, citing significantly weaker near-term earnings.

Here are first takes from Wall Street (courtesy of Bloomberg):

UBS (neutral)

• UBS cuts Centene to neutral from buy immediately following the withdrawn guidance; broker now sees 2025/2026 EPS at $3.25, representing a 55% decline

• "With the unexpected risk adjustment results in Marketplace and persistent Medicaid cost trends, the company's risk near term earnings has been significantly reduced"

JPMorgan (neutral)

• Analyst John Stansel cuts to neutral from overweight following news; says new price target of $48 from €75 reflects estimated ACA headwinds as well as "incremental" Medicaid pressure, "assuming that CNC is able to reprice at least a portion of its book into 2026"

• Says any information on Centene's approach to the ACA Marketplace in 2026 and recent regulatory changes will be key when company reports earnings on July 25

Barclays (equalweight)

• Analyst Andrew Mok calls ACA update "materially negative;" says it comes after recently-received industry data that showed Centene's cited membership growth was lower than expected, "likely driven by integrity rules"

• Adds that implied morbidity was "significantly higher" than Centene's expectations, driving an earnings headwind of as much as $1.8 billion for 2025, representing a $2.75 EPS impact

Jefferies (hold)

• Analyst David Windley says Centene's move confirms Jefferies fears that the prior-year 2025 risk pool is "deteriorating and plans have mispriced the risk pool" with firms assuming healthy growth

• "Investors should remember that CNC's risk adjustment is moving unfavorably because others' books are feeling claims pressure," Windley flags

Centene shares plunged as much as 27% in premarket trading in New York, hitting levels last seen in 2017. As of Tuesday's close, the stock was down roughly 6.5% year-to-date.

. . .

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 11:00

Tariff Derangement Syndrome(s)

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Stocks continued to hit all-time highs yesterday even as the balance of op-eds in financial media talk about the collapse of the liberal world order and threats to liberal democracy itself. Both can be true simultaneously, but caveat emptor on the asset and op-ed side. German stocks sold off when Hitler assumed power then rallied until the Battle of Stalingrad… at which point those trades literally blew up; and if every op-ed writer who deserved it got real egg on their face, the price of that staple would be soaring again. Yet today Bloomberg claims stock traders fear missing out on this rally more than any looming tariffs, “because markets.”

In their corner now is “Main Street not Wall Street’ US Treasury Secretary Bessent, who just attacked the Fed’s “Tariff Derangement Syndrome” to also call for rate cuts. That’s as Fed Chair Powell admitted the FOMC had gone on hold due to the size of the US tariffs being floated, then hinted at a rate cut as soon as this month.

Who can blame markets for a ‘buy all the things’ response to such a potential pivot? Yet there is that pesky tariff issue to overcome first, and de range of potential outcomes there is de syndrome we need to focus on. What we’ve seen in data so far reflects a universal tariff of 10% for everyone but China, who faces around 50%, and Beijing then dumping goods that were heading to the US on the EU, acting as a deflationary force – but one that will ultimately be rejected by trade actions. If tariffs change, the data will change. In short, for markets if not central banks, wait and see is not necessarily a bad option in a potentially crucial week.

Indeed, President Trump just said he won’t extend the July 9 deadline to strike trade deals, and even close allies like Japan could face higher tariffs. Moreover, while we just had insider whispers that the EU accepts the best it can get is a 10% universal tariff and quota exemptions for sectoral tariffs, there are others that it will now take a harder line. Clearly, different journalists are being fed different lines by different stakeholders – and that lack of unity is Europe’s problem in a nutshell. However, it's also the Fed’s… and the ECB’s, BOJ’s, BOE’s, BOC’s, PBOC’s, etc.

Also note China’s People’s Daily reports CCP Chairman Xi just argued the country needs to “govern the disorderly competition of enterprises at low prices in accordance with laws and regulations” – in other words, stop race-to-the-bottom price cuts on EVs and solar panels, etc.

Meanwhile, fiscal policy doesn’t say major monetary loosening is appropriate…. except if fiscal dominance necessitates it, which implies financial repression to follow. For three examples:

• The Senate narrowly passed Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, to Elon Musk’s fury. It now goes back to the House, where it faces a potentially difficult passage for its self-imposed 4 July deadline. That’s as Trump mused that he’d DOGE Musk’s firms and even look into deporting him if he makes political trouble over the BBB, and Treasury Secretary Bessent stated: “If Elon sticks to rockets, I'll stick to finance." Until he gets stuck running the Fed(?)
   
• UK PM Starmer managed to pass his welfare bill, but only with massive concessions to rebels that will boost the fiscal deficit significantly. There appears no appetite for any more spending cuts if we were to see the global negative impact of a trade war ahead; and
   
• The French PM survived a no confidence vote over proposed cuts to welfare there too, but only because the far-right National Rally propped him up, again showing their new parliamentary muscle - and they say they reverse at any point that suits them.

Moreover, as populism rises and the ‘free’ movement of goods is undermined, Poland introduced border checks with Germany and Lithuania inside Schengen, weakening the free movement of people, and the FT bewails less free movement of capital re: the US (and UK) carve-outs from the G7 minimum corporate tax agreement, as each locality tries to keep its revenues for itself.

As in geoeconomics, wait and see is also evident in geopolitics.

On the upside, Israel has reportedly agreed to a 60-day ceasefire with Hamas, to which it has yet to respond, in what looks like a move that will free remaining hostages and allow broader regional peace deals. There’s also been a sharp decline in Houthi missile and drone attacks on Israel following hits to Yemen’s ports and to Iran.

On the downside, the US says Iran loaded naval mines onto its ships during its recent threat to block the Strait of Hormuz(!), and satellite images show it’s built a new access road at Fordow and moved in construction equipment - will the US or Israel have to hit it again? True to form, the EU says talks on Iran’s nuclear program should “restart as soon as possible.” Close by, Turkey told Europe its stand behind its joint maritime claim with Libya --which effectively bisects the eastern Mediterranean-- and that’s on top of Ankara’s other recent claim on Greek waters.

The Pentagon has halted scheduled shipments of air defence missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine on worries US stockpiles are too low after being expended in the Middle East. This is a critical problem for Ukraine, and for Europe by proxy – and an expensive one for both of them. As a US spokesperson noted, “This decision was made to put America’s interests first following a DoD review of our nation’s military support and assistance to other countries across the globe. The strength of the US Armed Forces remains unquestioned - just ask Iran.”

As stressed here for many years, this is critical for markets overall: our global financial architecture ultimately rest on US military hegemony, but it has whittled down the US ability to produce enough weaponry to push-back against the axis of forces now trying to undermine it. Something will have to give, and markets won’t like it either way: the emerging argument is it’s either tariffs, higher defence spending, and possible financial repression, or something potentially worse – not ‘peace through strength’ but risks of ‘war through weakness’.

Yet as an example of how the US can use still realpolitik to push back for now, and will try to do so more ahead, it’s mused the recent Democratic Republic of Congo-Rwanda peace deal will effectively see the former grant the US access to $2 trillion of key minerals it holds as quid pro quo for D.C. stopping a Rwandan militia it had helped fund. By contrast, Europe is in the middle of an offsite to form a committee to set up a working group to create a new acronym to help it access key minerals in unstable places like Africa. I exaggerate, of course, but you get the point.

But do central banks get it? From those who talk to them, no, they really don’t. They apparently can’t even hear the word ‘tariffs’ without suffering from a form of derangement syndrome, and the thought of political, economic, and military statecraft is still alien to them after a career of bean-counting, physics-envy maths black magic, and portentous prognostication.

So, do markets get it? Do we need to ask? They are busily plotting out future rate cuts and buying all the things, even when only some of the things would be worth buying in that kind of environment. That’s a tariff derangement syndrome of another sort.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 10:50

Tesla Deliveries In-Line, Production Beats As Musk Takes Over Sales In US And Europe After Key Exec Departs

Tesla's Q2 delivery numbers came in at 384,122 vehicles, just below the estimate of 389,407. While estimates had been lowered multiple times, the number is still better than whisper numbers as low as 350k or 360k that were starting to make their way around the street over the past week. As a result, Tesla stock has popped this morning by almost 7%.

Production beat expectations. Tesla built 410,244 vehicles, compared to the forecast of 400,083. 

Model 3 and Model Y deliveries totaled 373,728, slightly under the estimate of 377,295.

The “Other Models” category — including the Model S, X, and Cybertruck — showed Tesla delivered 10,394 vehicles, below the expected 14,644.

Production of these models also came in slightly under, at 13,409 compared to the estimate of 13,616.

Model 3 and Y production reached 396,835 units, higher than the expected 383,567, suggesting Tesla had ramped up output of its most popular models.

Ahead of Tesla’s Q2 2025 delivery report, expectations were subdued amid signs of continued demand weakness and investor concerns over the company’s growth trajectory. Analysts widely anticipated another disappointing quarter, despite hopes pinned on the rollout of a refreshed Model Y and the company’s long-term robotaxi ambitions.

The Bloomberg consensus projected Tesla would report global deliveries of 395,328, representing an 11% year-over-year decline, though still higher than the 336,700 vehicles delivered in Q1. Production was expected to hit 443,321 units, up from 410,800 in the same period last year.

However, some firms were significantly more bearish. Wells Fargo predicted a 21% drop in deliveries from a year ago, estimating just 343,000 units — far below consensus. JPMorgan cut its estimate to 360,000, calling it a “sizable” 8% miss versus consensus. UBS was only slightly more optimistic, forecasting 366,000 units.

Expectations were tempered by hard data from Tesla’s largest markets. In Europe, Tesla registrations fell 27.9% in May, despite overall EV registrations in the region growing 25%, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA). Year to date, Tesla’s European sales were down 37.1%.

In the U.S., April registrations dropped 16% to 39,913 units. Meanwhile, Chevrolet’s EV registrations surged 215%, overtaking Tesla in growth, while Ford saw a 33% drop.

At the start of Q2, analysts were still optimistic, projecting 444,000 deliveries — in line with the same period in 2024. That forecast steadily declined as market data revealed Tesla wasn't production-constrained, but rather grappling with a demand problem, despite aggressive discounts and 0% financing offers on the Model 3 and Model Y.

Ahead of this morning's data, Bloomberg reports that Elon Musk has assumed direct oversight of Tesla’s sales operations in the United States and Europe, following the recent exit of longtime executive Omead Afshar.

Afshar, who left the company in late June, previously led sales and manufacturing across both regions.

The leadership shift comes as Tesla faces continued sales declines. Musk is now overseeing North American and European sales, while Senior Vice President Tom Zhu retains control of Asia and takes charge of global manufacturing. Zhu, who joined Tesla in 2014 and led the launch of its Shanghai Gigafactory, will now oversee factory heads including Hrushi Sagar in Fremont and Jason Shawhan in Austin. Meanwhile, Troy Jones, Tesla’s vice president of North American sales, now reports directly to Musk.

Musk’s hands-on role in Europe is especially notable. He has previously described the continent as Tesla’s “weakest market.” Sales data supports that: vehicle registrations across Europe dropped 28% in May and are down 37% for the year so far, while Chinese rivals like BYD continue to gain ground.

“Tesla’s sluggish sales” are again under scrutiny as more affordable models are delayed and consumer sentiment remains mixed. With another year of declining deliveries likely, investors are bracing for a second consecutive annual drop.

After a stint overseeing global operations from the U.S., Zhu returned to China last year due to regulatory issues tied to Tesla’s driver-assist features.

Since then, Chinese authorities have proposed new data guidelines that may help Tesla expand its advanced driving systems in the country.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 09:15

'Teary' UK Chancellor Reeves Is Safe For Now But The Gilt Market Maybe Not

Ten-year gilt yields just spiked by more than 10 bps on rumors that UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves was about to resign or be ousted.

The pressure on Reeves comes after Starmer — in a dramatic climbdown on Tuesday — abandoned controversial plans to restrict benefit payments to some disabled people, a reform pushed by the chancellor which would have saved some £5 billion ($6.9 billion), and was key to meeting her self-imposed budgetary rules at her spring statement in March.

Bloomberg reports that the welfare reform package was widely opposed by Labour MPs, with more than 120 originally threatening to vote against the policy in parliament.

Even after the last-ditch decision to drop the most contentious changes, 49 Labour MPs still voted against the bill on Tuesday, a sign of the scale of discontent.

The rebellion and U-turn are a serious blow to Starmer’s political authority as he approaches the first anniversary of Labour’s election win last July.

The decision to ditch the welfare reforms also leaves Reeves facing a widening fiscal hole of more than £6 billion to fill, including the need to fund a separate about-turn on a plan to cut winter fuel payments to pensioners.

As Bloomberg further reports, Starmer’s press secretary, Sophie Nazemi, quickly clarified his position to reporters after PMQs, saying that Reeves was going nowhere.

“She has the prime minister’s full backing,” Nazemi said.

“He’s said it repeatedly.”

The combination of Starmer’s failure to back his chancellor, and Reeves’ tears, prompted speculation about her position until the Treasury clarified that the reason for her demeanor was a personal issue.

“It’s a personal matter, which - as you would expect - we are not going to get into,” the Treasury said in a statement.

“The chancellor will be working out of Downing Street this afternoon.”

A tear just rolled down the Chancellor’s cheek at #PMQs as the PM refuses to answer whether or not she’ll stay in her job.

Hayfever, or something else? pic.twitter.com/HPXXQlDNo9

— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) July 2, 2025

But, as Bloomberg's Simon White notes, the rapidity of the move shows the precariousness of the UK’s debt situation.

The government had planned a series of cuts to welfare and sickness benefits, but had to drastically scale them back in the face of huge opposition from backbench MPs.

The watered down changes are estimated to deliver no savings overall.

A new chancellor might drop Reeves’ commitment to not borrow more for day-to-day activities, or increase spending, justifying a deepening concern for the gilt market.

Cable tumbled...

Yields are still near their day’s highs, while a risk measure for the UK, based on asset swaps, country bond spreads and basis swaps, has widened notably.

Keep watching.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 08:59

US Halting Some Weapons Shipments To Ukraine As Own Military Stockpiles Plummet

The Trump administration could finally be willing to bring real pressure to bear on the Zelensky government, as on Tuesday the White House confirmed that it its halting some weapons shipments to Ukraine.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told CBS News that in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war the "decision was made to put America's interests first following" a Defense Department "review of our nation's military support and assistance to other countries across the globe."

Getty Images

This comes after many reports over the last couple years sounding the alarm that US military stockpiles are falling too low, and that they will continue to be depleted based on past Ukraine policy.

While it's unknown precisely which weapons will be halted, or in what quanitites, Kelly asserted that "The strength of the United States Armed Forces remains unquestioned — just ask Iran."

However, we should note that the massive B-2 bomber raids sent against Iran's nuclear facilities was widely questioned among the US public for not exactly being 'America first'. Instead it appeared to prioritize the defense of Israel first.

Still, all the usual 'options' are on the table, we are assured by the Pentagon:

Elbridge Colby, Defense Department under secretary for policy, said in a separate statement Tuesday night in response to the move that the "Department of Defense continues to provide the President with robust options to continue military aid to Ukraine, consistent with his goal of bringing this tragic war to an end. At the same time, the Department is rigorously examining and adapting its approach to achieving this objective while also preserving U.S. forces' readiness for Administration defense priorities."

A potential draw down or limitation of arms sent to Ukraine is likely also driven by the reality that the battlefield hasn't changed substantially due to Washington and US-taxpayer funded assistance.

If anything the Russians keep advancing, now with an eye on Sumy and expanding the Putin-ordered buffer zone. Ukrainian sources say that that Russian forces have successfully expanded their occupation.

DeepState, a Ukrainian group of military analysts, has freshly written, "The trend from May, unfortunately, continued in June. As a reminder, during the most critical month for us – November – the Russians advanced by 730 sq km.

"The largest advances were recorded on the Novopavlivka and Pokrovsk fronts – 29% and 27% respectively. Sumy Oblast also ranks among the top with 18%. This means three-quarters of all advances took place in just three areas," the group said. "The remaining quarter is distributed almost evenly across other sectors of the front (4–6% per sector)."

Is Trump getting serious about a drastic shift in Ukraine policy this time?

Not a spicy viral clip, but Rubio gave some highly clarifying remarks at his Senate hearing this week. He confirms that not a single sanction against Russia has been lifted, and US arms continue to flow to Ukraine. So in other words, these Biden Admin policies continue unchanged pic.twitter.com/PhbSR2oXFB

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) May 22, 2025

Meanwhile, there hasn't been progress on the peace negotiation front. But this could change if Kiev begins running woefully low on US weapons, or sees a halt altogether, creating a new urgent incentive to possibly make territorial concessions at the negotiating table. But it remains that the Europeans have been consistently seeking to step up their support of late.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 08:50

ADP Reports Biggest Drop In Service-Provider Jobs Since COVID Lockdown

Having trended weaker for the last two months, analysts expected a modest bounce back in the ADP Employment Report for June (following the mixed picture from ISM/PMI for employment and another mixed bag from Challenger, Grey Job Cuts data this morning).

BUT... The headline print saw a 33k DROP in jobs in June (and a downward revision to +29k in May) - the biggest/first drop since March 2023

Source: Bloomberg

That is a 5 sigma miss from expectations...

And the biggest miss since Aug 2022 (third monthly miss in a row)...

"Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month," said Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.

After losing 2k jobs in May, Goods-Producing firms managed 32k job additions in June but Services providers saw jobs drop 66k - the biggest drop since COVID lockdowns...

Source: Bloomberg

The job losses were dominated by smaller businesses...

Job gains were dominated by Manufacturing and Transportation while job losses were dominated by 'Professional and Business Services'...

"Still, the slowdown in hiring has yet to disrupt pay growth."

• Year-over-year pay growth for job-stayers was little changed for June at 4.4 percent compared to 4.5 percent in May.

• Pay growth for job-changers was 6.8 percent in June, down slightly from 7.0 percent last month.

Of course this will all be blamed on Trump's tariffs but it's hard to see how that makes any sense given the surge in Manufacturing jobs (where the tariffs 'would' hit) while Services (which we do not import) saw major job losses.

So, will Powell consider rate-cuts now?

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 08:22