The Quiet Spread Of AI-Generated 'Brainrot' Across Social Media

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

Elephants drop-kicking crocodiles while breaking the laws of physics, bewildering deepfakes of politicians and deceased public figures, and seemingly animated children’s videos of Jesus fighting the Grinch: generative artificial intelligence (AI) is sweeping across online video platforms and may now account for a sizable portion of YouTube’s short-form video feed, recent research shows.

After being accused last year of causing users to end up in psychiatric wards and allegedly helping multiple depressed teenagers take their own lives, generative AI tools are also inspiring new genres of online content.

AI-generated images and clips were found in 21 percent of the 500 short-form videos screened in a study released last November by the video editing software company Kapwing, with some of the channels analyzed amassing millions of subscribers and billions of views.

Some, such as India-based channel Bandar Apna Dost, were estimated to generate millions of dollars in YouTube ad revenue annually. These channels are found worldwide, with those based in Spain and South Korea garnering the “most devoted viewerships,” according to the study.

“Generative AI tools have dramatically lowered the barrier to entry for video production,” Rohini Lakshané, an interdisciplinary technology researcher, told The Epoch Times.

“So, the channel can churn out massive amounts of content and maintain a high frequency of posting. Channels using these methods can flood recommendation feeds simply by volume, irrespective of intrinsic quality.”

Here’s what we know about “brainrot” and “AI slop,” what’s at stake for viewers and content creators, and why you might want to pay closer attention when browsing social media.

‘Brainrot’ and ‘AI Slop’

Kapwing determined that 33 percent of the videos it screened after creating a new account on YouTube appeared to have the hallmarks of “brainrot” content, which Oxford defines as “trivial or unchallenging” and considered to deteriorate a “person’s mental or intellectual state.”

Existing long before the advent of generative AI, “brainrot” includes memes, humor, nonsensical skits, videos of children or animals engaging in “silly” actions or behaviors, and other forms of content that minimally engage users intellectually or convey little or no meaning beyond randomness or absurdity.

Combining generative AI with “brainrot” characteristics gives rise to the emerging genre many refer to as “AI slop,” which Kapwing defines as “careless, low-quality content” generated with AI tools that is intended to “farm views and subscriptions or sway political content.”

By its definition, what content may be considered as “brainrot” or “low-quality” can vary from person to person. For example, one person might describe all short-form “comedy” videos as “brainrot,” while another might find them genuinely entertaining and choose a different label.

The same may be said about “AI slop,” as some content creators, such as Montreat College language professor T. Michael Halcomb, use generative AI tools as an extension of their own academic work.

Halcomb, who also parodies “AI slop” and “brainrot” with his student-led comedy club, told The Epoch Times that he uses AI tools to make short-form videos based on posts he writes on his blog, deploying the technology to create video clips, clone his voice for narration purposes, and generate text on the screen.

There’s a lot of overlap between users that maintain a human element while taking advantage of AI tools and those merely using AI to create what others would refer to as “slop” or mass-produced content aimed at farming views, he said.

“I do think the human element isn’t completely gone. It just allows humans to speed up things,” Halcomb said, adding that even some of the so-called “AI slop” channels such as Spain’s “Imperio de jesus,” which features AI-generated animations of Jesus fighting Satan and the Grinch, play into “shock humor” and absurdism—driving curiosity among viewers.

There’s also a “lore” element to many of these videos, as the channel above has repeated story tropes that build on previous videos, which Halcomb compared to “inside jokes” in comedy, allowing one video to lead to another, and so on.

Looking at the Bandar Apna Dost channel, which, according to its creators, features a “realistic monkey in hilarious, dramatic, and heart-touching human-style situations,” the videos utilize AI for everything from their visuals to background audio.

The videos are popular, Lakshané says, because they mimic scenes from popular Indian films and display “the trope of a hypermasculine male protagonist who commits illegal or abusive acts or commits superhuman feats, and, at times, has an outlandish amount of social or political power.”

“The videos in the channel are disjointed and do not follow a storyline or narrative. No prerequisite knowledge or context is required to watch the short videos. There are characters, such as one with a likeness of the Incredible Hulk—named Hulku—which gives the videos an appeal and broad demographic reach,” she said.

Other channels may use less overt AI, or AI harder to detect for some viewers, like a video found by The Epoch Times, which “looks” like a real safari video of an elephant protecting another from a crocodile.

But once viewers see the second elephant drop kick the crocodile more than 30 feet in a way that breaks the laws of physics, it becomes much clearer that the video was made with AI, even though its creator seemingly went to great lengths to make sure the OpenAI-made tool Sora’s watermark only appears on a single frame—three seconds in—on the eight-second video.

A screen displays examples of AI prompt-created videos, made with Xai’s Grok app in London on Jan. 12, 2026. Leon Neal/Getty Images

Risks of AI-Generated Videos

As with the example above, many AI videos are intentionally generated to look as lifelike as possible, which increases the risk of deception and misinformation online, some organizations say.

AARP, a nonprofit and advocacy group for Americans aged 50 and older, warned last month that “AI slop” videos are making it increasingly difficult for some users to “detect what is real.”

The organization noted ChatGPT creator OpenAI’s decision in October 2025 to block “disrespectful” AI-generated “deepfake” videos depicting the likeness of Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. in its Sora 2 video creation app.

Quickly generated “AI slop” deepfake videos also permeated online platforms throughout the 2024 presidential election, and the Brennan Center for Justice warned last March that AI videos could have serious impacts on future voting cycles.

Science researchers are worried this phenomenon may creep into medical information and educational videos, where there are “specific hazards to learning from purportedly educational videos made by AI without the use of human discretion,” according to a study released by the National Library of Medicine in November 2025.

That study screened 1,082 online videos in the “preclinical biomedical sciences” educational category and found that 5.3 percent appeared to be “AI-generated and low quality,” suggesting the technology is still in slow adoption among online medical information content, but that its proliferation may be slowly increasing.

Even in the absence of misinformation, the “AI slop” videos that are sweeping across YouTube and TikTok have psychological impacts on users, Jeff Burningham, a tech industry venture capitalist and author of “The Last Book Written by a Human: Becoming Wise in the Age of AI,” told The Epoch Times.

“I think it’s pretty probably self-evident as to why it’s becoming popular, and it’s not something that I or we as a collective society should be proud of,” he said.

“It preys on kind of our most base desires. And I think it’s an indication of dopamine over discernment … [and] engagement over insight.”

Burningham says in his book that the real danger with AI isn’t necessarily the technology itself, but the “atrophy of human attention and awareness.”

A woman holds a phone displaying the Youtube app, in this file photo, on Aug. 11, 2024. Oleksii Pydsosonnii/The Epoch Times

Results of Experiment

The Epoch Times created a new YouTube account using a new email address on a private web browser to prevent previous browser cookies from impacting the type or genre of videos first seen.

We then analyzed the first 300 short-form videos shown on YouTube after initially logging into the account and found that the vast majority—88 percent—had the characteristics of “brainrot,” with little or no meaning beyond the absurd, random, or attention-grabbing.

However, some of these videos fell into gray areas, particularly within the amorphous “comedy” genre, making it difficult to pin down exactly how many would fit the “brainrot” category, which Halcomb says is largely subjective.

In our analysis, only 8 percent of the first 300 videos seen on the new YouTube account appeared to be AI-generated, with some using AI-images, while others—like the elephant video and another that features a woman hiding in her car’s hatchback to escape a horde of wolves trying to attack her—appear to be fully AI-generated video clips.

We did not see videos from any of the channels mentioned in Kapwing’s study under its “Most Subscribed AI Slop YouTube Channels,” which may come down to location or other variables, particularly if previous browser cookies can influence which videos a new account sees on the platform.

Another possibility is that AI slop, even though it’s increasingly growing in popularity, is simply not yet outpacing the other forms of so-called “brainrot” that The Epoch Times did see in its experiment: meme videos, people performing skits in front of their cameras, and bizarre attempts at comedy that are otherwise filmed and edited by real people.

Even if AI-generated content explodes in prevalence as some predict, its rise may not be as apocalyptic as some fear as long as humanity can face this existential reckoning moment as an opportunity to evolve, Burningham said, describing AI technology as a “cosmic mirror to humanity.”

“A reflection can be a powerful thing, because you see yourself a little more clearly, and with that, you know additional clarity—you’re able to pivot or change. Now, will humans do this? I don’t know,” he said.

“It’s hard to be optimistic, but this is the opportunity that I think that AI allows us. These things thrive because right now, attention is cheap and it’s fragmented in a million different ways, and we’re exhausted. But my fear, obviously, and I think the danger of AI slop is when attention collapses, so does wisdom, so does memory, and so does meaning, and that’s a scary place for humanity.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 16:20

Pope Leo Evaluating US Invitation To Join Trump's Gaza Board Of Peace

Pope Leo XIV has been invited to join President Donald Trump’s "Board of Peace," according to a fresh Wednesday statement from the Vatican’s secretary of state. "We’ve also received this invitation and the pope received it and we are looking at what to do. We are researching and I believe it’s a question that demands a little time to be considered in order to give a response," the Vatican’s number two, Pietro Parolin, told journalists at an event in Rome.

So neither a yes or no has yet been given in response. The Vatican had throughout the 2-year long Gaza war constantly spotlighted the issue and called for immediate peace. But the Vatican could actually be "considering" the invitation.

via Associated Press

Leo has also been outspoken on the protection of Palestinian Christians, also after his predecessor Francis was known to phone Gaza City's lone Catholic Church each night in solidarity, when the strip was under constant bombardment from Israeli forces.

As the first American pope, he carried on Francis' theme of standing up for the downtrodden, and his very first Christmas sermon stated that God ​had "pitched his fragile tent" among the people of the world. "How, then, ‍can we not think of the tents in Gaza, exposed for weeks to rain, wind and cold?" he posed.

However, Leo has generally been less 'political' and more diplomatic than his predecessor. 

But this doesn't mean his American cardinals have been quiet on world events. According to The Washington Post this week:

Echoing concerns of Pope Leo XIV over a new era of unilateralism and warfare, the three highest-ranking U.S. Catholic archbishops on Monday said “the moral foundation for America’s actions in the world” has been thrown into question by a resurgence in the use or threat of military force, including in Venezuela and Greenland.

The archbishops, Cardinals Blase Cupich of Chicago, Robert McElroy of D.C. and Joseph Tobin of Newark, in a statement released Monday, amplified comments by Leo, the first U.S.-born pontiff, who earlier this month lamented the demise of multilateralism.

“In 2026 the United States has entered into the most profound and searing debate about the moral foundation for America’s actions in the world since the end of the Cold War,” the archbishops wrote. “The events in Venezuela, Ukraine and Greenland have raised basic questions about the use of military force and the meaning of peace.”

There are reports that some US Roman Catholic bishops have even said Catholic servicemembers could conscientiously object to carrying out orders to invade or occupy Greenland.

As for the Gaza board, invitations have been sent to a broad group of countries in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, including US allies and key regional players. Already, countries and leaders as different and geographically distant as Hungary under Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Vietnamese Communist Party chief To Lam have accepted their invitations. Putin has also been invited.

It is shaping up to be a 'mini UN' of sorts, as the peace board plan calls for an international council to manage reconstruction financing, security coordination, and political cooperation in Gaza - all while working in cooperation with a Palestinian technocratic administration.

Yet there are other peculiar aspects. For example Bloomberg recently reported that the Trump administration is asking nations interested in holding a permanent seat on a proposed Gaza Strip "Board of Peace" to pledge at least $1 billion in funding. Otherwise they will just hold a three-year seat, according to some initial details. Would the Vatican contemplate this?

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 15:40

Watch Live: President Trump's (Delayed) Interview With CNBC's Joe Kernen

President Trump will sit down for an interview with CNBC’s Joe Kernen in Davos, Switzerland on Wednesday.

Earlier, Trump gave a speech at the World Economic Forum where he touted the strength of the U.S. economy and criticized Europe, saying it "is not heading in the right direction."

Trump also doubled down on his desire to take control of mineral-rich Greenland, but said he wouldn’t use force to achieve this goal.

“People thought I would use force. I don’t have to use force. I don’t want to use force. I won’t use force,” Trump said in the highly anticipated address to the WEF.

The question is - will Trump refocus his attention on domestic matters - affordability - or keep going on the earlier more interventionist speech.

This will also be the first opportunity for President Trump to respond to the EU's decision to freeze the trade deal with the US... and unleash their ACI.

Watch live (due to start at 1300ET delayed start to 1400ET):

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 15:10

US Slaps Down French Calls For NATO Drills In Greenland, Mocks Macron

Among the big and more notable quotes to come out of President Trump's Davos address is his statement that he "won't use force" to take over Greenland while calling for "immediate negotiations" to discuss the "acquisition" of the Arctic territory by the United States from Denmark.

"This enormous unsecured island is actually part of North America," Trump said before the World Economic Forum. Still, he asserted "That's our territory." He added: "The fact is, no nation or group of nations is in any position to be able to secure Greenland other than the United States. We're a great power, much greater than people even understand. I think they found that out two weeks ago in Venezuela."

via Reuters/India Today

Denmark has greeted the part of Trump's remarks wherein he said he won't use military force as "positive". Leading European powers are still trying their best to flex their might, however.

As French President Emmanuel Macron addressed the summit, donning his aviator shades, he called on NATO allies to conduct a military exercise in Greenland amid Trump's bellicose rhetoric related to potentially seizing the Danish territory..

"France calls for a NATO exercise in Greenland and is ready to contribute to it," Macron's office confirmed Wednesday just ahead of Trump's arrival and speech in Switzerland. 

It remains unclear whether Macron also has US military participation in mind, or whether this would be a purely European NATO thing. Since near the beginning of Trump's recently ramping up his rhetoric over Greenland, shortly on the heels of the Venezuela operation to overthrow Maduro, the Europeans have pursued an alternative strategy to divert Trump into assisting with joint Arctic monitoring. 

He's complained of inroads in the resource-rich region by Russian and China, and so Europe is seeking to satisfy Trump's call for Greenland to be a secure American outpost. EU leaders then hope he would eventually give up the idea of owning Greenland.

But Washington is seeing through this, with top US officials quickly pushing back against the idea of NATO drills there. Speaking on the sidelines of the WEF, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took a swipe at Macron:

He described as “inflammatory” statements on Tuesday by the French president, Emmanuel Macron, who said Europe preferred “respect to bullies” and “the rule of law to brutality”, and Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, who promised an “unflinching” tariff response.

“If this is all President Macron has to do when the French budget is in shambles, I would suggest he focuses on other things for the French people,” Bessent said. He urged leaders in Davos not to show “reflexive anger” and “bitterness”.

Already France along with a handful of other EU nations has dispatched a small military contingent to Greenland and has plans to send more sea, air and land forces. Even Canada is said to be mulling some kind of troop deployment.

The bus “Greenland Excursions” taking the handful of European troops we sent for Arctic Endurance NATO drill is somewhat emblematic of the whole situation. pic.twitter.com/rsOQ398ua8

— Zeitgeist Explorer⚡ (@ZeitgeistExplo1) January 15, 2026

As for the NATO secretary-general, the alliance's chief Mark Rutte kicked off the week by telling reporters that he does "not at all" see NATO as in crisis, brushing off much of the escalating Greenland back-and-forth.

"I think we are really working in the right direction," Rutte said - but we can imagine Putin and Kremlin officials are currently kicking back to enjoy the popcorn and the show, also as the Ukraine war has momentarily taken a back seat among Western officials.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 15:00

Von Der Leyen Hand-Wrings About "Raw Power" Under Trump After Venezuela Silence

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned Wednesday before the European Parliament that the 27-member EU must accelerate efforts to strengthen both its economy and its defenses, as it confronts a shifting global order shaped by what she called "raw power."

She took the opportunity to caution Washington and President Trump over his Greenland ambitions, saying that tensions between supposed "allies" over Greenland risk strengthening the West's geopolitical rivals. Indeed, over in Davos, the Greenland question and US rhetoric has completely overshadowed efforts at furthering the Ukraine peace deal. But sadly truce efforts have in reality been going nowhere anyway.

"The shift in the international order is not only seismic, but it is permanent," she told lawmakers, presenting as a pressing example the "volatile situation" surrounding Greenland, Russia's ongoing attacks on Ukraine which is plunging it into darkness, as well as rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific.

via China Focus

"We will need a departure from Europe’s traditional caution," said the European Commission president. "We now live in a world defined by raw power - whether economic or military, technological or geopolitical. And while many of us may not like it, we must deal with the world as it is now."

Von der Leyen also called out President Trump's recent threat to impose tariffs on European allies as "simply wrong".

"If we are now plunging into a dangerous downward spiral between allies, this would only embolden the very adversaries we are both so committed to keeping out of the strategic landscape," she said. "We are at a crossroads" - but it remains that "Europe prefers dialogue and solutions - but we are fully prepared to act, if necessary, with unity, urgency and determination," she said.

While she and other EU elites are prattling on about this dubious concept called the 'ruled-based order' it must be remembered she and most of Europe were completely silent - and even seemed to give tacit approval for - the US invasion of Venezuela and overthrow of Nicolás Maduro.

According to one European-perspective report filed withing days after Maduro's ouster:

The EU watches from the sidelines as the crisis in Venezuela unfolds, following the U.S. military operation that captured the self-proclaimed president, not recognised by most world governments, Nicolas Maduro, and his wife, Cilia Flores. A blitz that reportedly claimed at least 80 victims in Caracas, including civilians and military personnel. The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Kaja Kallas, called for “calm and restraint by all actors,” and reminded Washington that, as a member of the UN Security Council, it “has a particular responsibility” to uphold the principles of international law. 

The statement released by Kallas has the backing of 26 member states – Hungary opted out – and it is the first coordinated reaction of the EU bloc, almost 48 hours after the unprecedented attack ordered by Donald Trump against the Venezuelan leadership. Brussels has avoided an explicit condemnation of the US military incursion – only Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has openly accused Washington of violating international law – and has preferred to emphasise the illegitimacy of Maduro, who has been in power in Caracas for over a decade and is responsible for a ferocious repression against the democratic opposition in the country. A risky balancing act, which once again exposes the EU to accusations of double standards.

This spectacle of von der Leyen now dramatically warning about how this menace of "raw power" is upending the international community and 'global order' is clearly absurd and hypocritical on its face, and is obviously empty of any real content other than the usual performative moral posturing for the consumption of her fellow EU elites.

Independent journalist Ben Norton agrees that "There is no end to the imperial hypocrisy of the European Union."

Territorial integrity and sovereignty are fundamental principles of international law.

They are essential for Europe and for the international community as a whole.

We have consistently underlined our shared transatlantic interest in peace and security in the Arctic, including…

— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) January 17, 2026

"They never abandoned colonialism; they just became junior partners in crime to the US empire," he adds, and continues: "Warmongering EU chief von der Leyen refuses to utter a word about Trump bombing Venezuela, kidnapping its president, and announcing an open-ended US colonial occupation to 'run' the country (and pillage its oil)."

"The craziest part of all is von der Leyen cynically pretends to care about international law and the UN Charter, which her masters in Washington just tore up and spat on," Norton concludes.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 14:25

Bessent Says Deutsche Bank CEO Called To Dismiss Research Note On US Assets

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking at the World Economic Forum earlier today, said Deutsche Bank AG CEO Christian Sewing called him to disavow an analyst report from the bank that warned European investors could sell US assets amid the latest President Donald Trump-EU dispute over Greenland.

"We saw a six standard deviation move in Japanese bonds, which has spilled over to other markets, and I've been in touch with my Japanese economic colleagues, and I'm assured that they will take measures to stabilize that market and just so everyone knows that this notion that Europeans would be selling US assets came from a single analyst at Deutsche Bank. Of course, the fake news media led by the Financial Times amplified it, and the CEO of Deutsche Bank called to say that Deutsche Bank does not stand by that analyst report," Bessent told reporters at Davos.

The research note in question comes from DB's chief forex strategist, George Saravelos, who told clients on Sunday that Europe held approximately $8 trillion of US equities and bonds, making it America's largest creditor and underlining Washington's reliance on foreign capital to finance deficits.

"We spent most of last year arguing that for all its military and economic strength, the US has one key weakness: it relies on others to pay its bills via large external deficits. Europe, on the other hand, is America's largest lender," Saravelos wrote.

Saravelos did not predict a sell-off but warned that rising geopolitical tensions could force some European investors to rebalance away from the dollar, citing past repatriation by the Danish pension fund.

Headline yesterday...

*DANISH PENSION FUND AKADEMIKERPENSION TO EXIT US TREASURIES

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 20, 2026

"In an environment where the geoeconomic stability of the Western alliance is being disrupted existentially, it is not clear why Europeans would be as willing to play this part . . . With [US dollar] exposure still very elevated across Europe, developments over the last few days have the potential to further encourage dollar rebalancing," he said.

We cited Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White, who noted earlier: "Any potential threat by Europe to sell its Treasuries in retaliation for President Donald Trump's aim to annex Greenland is likely to be empty."

Read White's note here.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 13:50

Appalachian NatGas Output Faces "Intense Losses" As Arctic Blast Drives Power Grid Risk Higher

The Lower 48 has entered the depths of Northern Hemisphere winter. A series of Arctic cold blasts, combined with fears of a 1996-style blizzard stretching from Texas through the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast, has sent U.S. natural gas futures quite literally vertical, marking the largest weekly spike on record (that's if gains hold through Friday).

But the next focus now turns to Appalachian Basin gas production, which sits at the center of severe winter reliability risk just as demand surges across the eastern half of the country.

January 20-21, 1985 low temperatures across Lower 48.

4.1°F average low temperature on the 21st. That's it.

We'll be looking at about 10°F this Sat/Sun. pic.twitter.com/4x5Jer4dX4

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 21, 2026

Criterion Research's James Bevan, vice president of research, has drawn our attention to freeze-off risks across the critical gas production hubs in the Appalachian region. This area is driven by the Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale, which produce roughly one-third of total U.S. NatGas.

Bevan explains:

The Appalachian production basin is poised for intense losses with the incoming winter storm. As volumes stand today at 35.5 Bcf/d, they have regained some of the last few days of freeze off losses but they are far shy of recent highs closer to 37 Bcf/d.

We should see some more upwards movement in the next 2–3 days before the next round of cold hammers the region.

Freeze offs are going to happen again by the weekend. It's just a matter of how much and how long those impact supply.

Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022 pushed Pittburgh to overnight lows of -3.7F at the peak cold that weekend, and production was crushed as a result.

Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022 had a massive impact on regional production.  As regional temps fell into the single digits, observed production nominations declined 26% at their lowest to a minimal 25.2 Bcf/d.

We overlaid the Pittsburgh, PA low temperatures during Winter Storm Elliott (2022) with the coming cold shot, and the 1/30 cold event has similar overnight lows on 1/23-1/24.  However, the cold lingers long after that versus the rapid warming seen during Elliot that propelled averages back into the 40-50F range within a week.

Appalachian gas production is going to fall substantially over the weekend, and that could push it to 30 Bcf/d or lower depending on what infrastructure is impacted during the event.

The screenshot from our Mapping Analytics Platform below shows all production meters in the region (green dots) and processing plants (pink dots) — and the key item to watch is where winter precipitation hits and where the power outages hit.  Those two factors will drive how bad production losses end up

The MAP Analytics tool also lets you dig into specific states and pipelines, isolate what their production receipts looked like during specific events and times like Winter Storm Elliott or other deep freezes.

Review note from earlier:

• US NatGas Poised For Biggest Weekly Spike On Record As "Blizzard Of '96" Fears Resurface

Our risk assessment suggests that the combination of dangerously cold air and a major winter storm could cascade into a severe power grid risk. Freeze-offs and power outages across the Appalachian region could materially disrupt NatGas flows to power plants at the exact moment demand is peaking.  

Recall Winter Storm Uri in 2021, when extreme cold paralyzed the NatGas supply and collapsed the ERCOT grid in Texas for a week. A scenario like that could be in play in parts of the eastern US, regions where power grids are already tight because of bad 'green' energy policies colliding with the era of data centers.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 13:35

Stellar 20Y Auction Stops Through With Near Record Bid To Cover, Record Directs

In a week when global yields have exploded higher following the historic rout in Japan's bond market, many were nervous about the outcome of today's 20Y Treasury auction. In retrospect, they had no reason to be worried: the auction closed with flying colors amid solid demand. 

The high yield of today's sale of $13BN in 20Y paper was 4.846%, up from 4.798% a month ago and the highest since August; it also stopped through the When Issued 4.856% by 1bps , the biggest stop through since October, and also the 6th stop in the past 7 auctions.

More impressive still, the bid to cover was 2.86, up from 2.67 in December and the second highest on record (only June 2023 was higher).

The internals were a touch softer with Indirects awarded 64.72%, down from 65.19%, but above the six auction average of 63.5%. And with Directs taking 29.1%, tied for the highest on record, Dealers were left with just 6.2%, one of the six year history of the auction.

Overall, this was a stellar 20Y auction, and one which pushed yields in the secondary market slightly lower after news of the break, although with many other factors determining yields (Japan, Greenland, earnings), don't expect the auction's impact on the broader market to last.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 13:29

The Stock Market Isn't A Market Anymore - It's A Political Control Mechanism

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

It has become increasingly clear to me that the stock market is no longer a stock market in the traditional sense.

Its primary purpose was once straightforward: a venue where companies could raise capital by selling shares to the public, and where investors could freely buy and sell those shares among themselves.

Today, the market still performs that function — but it has been far overshadowed by three larger, unofficial roles that have become existential to social and political stability:

1. Liquidity Sponge: All the trillions in newly created currency units have to go somewhere. Better to have them chasing stocks than bidding up the price of groceries.

2. De Facto Savings Account: Most people treat their brokerage account as if it were a savings account. Their financial futures depend on the stock market continuing to rise. But putting money into the stock market is not saving — it’s investing, and that’s a very different thing. The rapid debasement of fiat currency has destroyed savings for the average person, forcing them into riskier assets like stocks in a desperate attempt to outpace inflation.

3. Crucial Tax Revenue: Taxes on capital gains, dividends, corporate profits, and other market-related activity have become an essential pillar of government funding.

As the failure of DOGE — the most serious attempt to cut federal spending in most people’s lifetimes — demonstrated, it’s politically impossible to even slow the growth rate of federal spending, let alone cut it. It doesn’t matter which party is in office; they’re all headed in the same direction. It’s like riding a runaway train with no brakes.

Issuing debt and then printing money to buy that debt remains one of the primary ways this out-of-control spending is financed.

All those new currency units need an outlet.

If people lose interest in the stock market because it has declined, those freshly created dollars will start flowing elsewhere, bidding up the prices of housing, food, and other basic necessities, which could trigger real social upheaval.

Another reason the government cannot allow the stock market to fall is that it would devastate retirement savings and infuriate the most politically active demographic.

It’s a near-guaranteed way to lose the next election.

A third reason is fiscal. A declining market would slash hundreds of billions in federal revenue from taxes on capital gains, dividends, corporate profits, and other market-linked activity. That shortfall would further explode the deficit, which would then need to be financed by even more borrowing and even more money printing, compounding the problem.

This is why, in short, the political establishment cannot tolerate a sustained downturn in the stock market. It would unleash intense social and political instability that could bring down the entire system.

And this is also why the stock market is no longer primarily a stock market in the traditional sense. It has become a mechanism that the political establishment relies on to maintain control.

This is the backdrop behind today’s absurd valuation metrics.

The S&P 500’s Price-to-Earnings (P/E) and CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted P/E) ratios are near historical highs, while Free Cash Flow Yield and Dividend Yield are near historical lows.

Meanwhile, Market Cap to GDP (the Buffett Indicator) sits at a record high. It measures the total value of the US stock market relative to US GDP. Today, that ratio stands at roughly 221% — far exceeding prior peaks of 139% at the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000 and 106% at the peak of the housing bubble in 2007.

These are just a few examples. Nearly every fundamental measure of valuation is at or near all-time highs — and still climbing.

This highlights the biggest challenge with investing today: rampant money printing by central banks has distorted financial markets like never before, rendering traditional fundamental analysis far less effective. It’s like using a measuring stick where the length of a centimeter keeps changing.

As a result, finding high-quality businesses at reasonable valuations through Graham-and-Dodd-style securities analysis is becoming increasingly difficult, if not impossible.

You would be mistaken to believe today’s insane valuations reflect a voluntary free market of rational buyers and sellers operating with honest money. What we are witnessing instead is the financial equivalent of a carnival fun house — a distorted, warped mirror shaped by an ever-increasing supply of fake money.

Many are understandably confused because today’s stock market valuations don’t make financial sense. But what they overlook is that these valuations do make political sense — and political concerns will continue to trump fundamentals as long as politicians control the money printer.

The financial fun house illusions will persist, and they will become even more absurd.

To distill it down to its most concise form: the US government can either let the stock market decline and watch the whole house of cards come tumbling down, or continue to goose it with easy money. It’s not difficult to predict which option they’ll choose.

That is why, if we do see a stock market decline, I do not expect it to be prolonged. In the past 26 years, the only extended downturns were the dot-com bust and the 2008 financial crisis. Every other pullback — including the 2020 Covid collapse — was so brief that if you’d taken a long vacation, you might have missed it entirely. That’s because at the first sign of trouble, the Federal Reserve stands ready to create as many currency units as necessary to prop up the system.

I expect this dynamic to persist. If another downturn is coming, I wouldn’t expect it to last very long.

The far more likely outcome is that we’ll continue to experience a melt-up (in nominal terms) until they destroy the currency.

Ludwig von Mises, the godfather of free-market Austrian economics, summed up the US government’s dilemma:

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.

The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

The US government will not voluntarily “abandon credit expansion,” as Mises puts it, because Washington is dependent on issuing increasing amounts of debt — which the Fed buys with dollars it creates out of thin air — to pay for the ever-growing costs of Social Security, national defense, welfare, and interest on the federal debt.

That means their only choice is to debase the US dollar by ever-increasing amounts until, as Mises puts it, the “final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

It’s like a drug addict who needs to keep raising his dose to get the same effect… until he dies of an overdose.

Could that happen in 2026?

I think it’s a growing possibility, but not the most likely outcome. I believe it’s more likely the melt-up continues.

My primary mission at Financial Underground: SPECULATOR is to put together the pieces to reveal the true Big Picture and get positioned in unstoppable investment trends ahead of the crowd with smart speculations.

I’m more interested in getting the Big Picture right than gambling on short-term trades in rigged markets.

In my latest free PDF report, The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years… the Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now, I break it all down, explore what’s in store, and determine the best ways to get positioned for profits amid what promises to be a tumultuous year.

Click here to download the free PDF now.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 13:15

Walz, Ellison, Frey's Offices Served Grand Jury Subpoenas

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

The Department of Justice on Tuesday served grand jury subpoenas to five Democrat-controlled government offices in Minnesota, including Gov. Tim Walz’s office, Attorney General Keith Ellison’s office, and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey’s office, according to Fox News. 

The subpoenas are part of a federal investigation into alleged conspiracy to obstruct or impede federal law enforcement in the state.

The FBI is seeking records and communications related to Democrat officials’ responses to federal immigration enforcement actions.

Approximately 3,000 federal agents are currently deployed in Minnesota, as part of an immigration operation dubbed “Operation Metro Surge.” The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced on Monday that the operation has resulted in the arrests of 3,000 criminal illegal aliens, “including vicious murderers, rapists, child pedophiles, and incredibly dangerous individuals.”

However, the law enforcement effort has been hampered at every turn by highly trained and coordinated anti-ICE militants in what Trump administration officials have called an “insurgency,” and “domestic terrorism.”

“Mayor Jacob Frey, Governor Tim Walz, and Attorney General Keith Ellison have deliberately, willfully and purposefully incited this violent insurgency against Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and against Border Patrol, top White House advisor Stephen Miller said during appearance on Fox News’ Ingraham Angle, last week.

Miller pointed out that the insurgents routinely disrupt operations by tracking ICE vehicles through spotters and blocking them.

“Then they dox ICE officers. They follow them home, they follow them to where they sleep at night,” he said.

“It’s a sophisticated insurgency involving a large number of radicalized extremist, violent leftwing operators stoked by the Democrat party,” Miller declared.

Their reckless tactics resulted in the fatal shooting of anti-ICE agitator Renee Good by an ICE officer on January 7, which sparked more violent riots and calls from the Democrat state leaders for ICE to leave the state.

Walz, Frey, and Ellison have all publicly denounced the federal presence, with Ellison filing a lawsuit calling it an unconstitutional “federal invasion.”

Frey’s office has been called to appear at the U.S. federal courthouse on Feb. 3, according to FOX 9.

In a statement, Frey said:

“When the federal government weaponizes its power to try to intimidate local leaders for doing their jobs, every American should be concerned. We shouldn’t have to live in a country where people fear that federal law enforcement will be used to play politics or crack down on local voices they disagree with. In Minneapolis, we won’t be afraid. We know the difference between right and wrong, and, as Mayor, I’ll continue doing the job I was elected to do: keeping our community safe and standing up for our values.”

Gov. Walz released the following statement on social media, calling the DOJ investigation a “partisan distraction.”

Keith Ellison on Tuesday released a statement declaring his intention of staying in the race for Minnesota’s attorney general “as the federal government targets Minnesota.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 11:40

Pilot Attitudes

By Molly Schwartz, Cross Asset Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Macron spoke at the Davos Summit yesterday decked out in 2009 Louis Vuitton “Pilot Attitude” aviators with blue lenses. While c’est chic, it could also serve as a subtle nod to the five hazardous attitudes of pilots, which can lead to their ultimate demise: anti-authority, impulsivity, invulnerability, macho, and resignation.

If there is a single message to be taken away from yesterday’s headlines, it’s that the age of invulnerability in a world governed by a benevolent superpower has passed. Mark Carney made this very clear, using his time to “indirectly” call out Trump’s recent threats towards Greenland (and threats of tariffs on Europe), telling his peers to “stop invoking the ‘rules-based international order’ as though it still functions as advertised. Call the system what it is: a period where the most powerful pursue their interests using economic integration as a weapon of coercion.” In Carney’s telling, the Old New World Order is dead as the US eschews multilateral norms in favor of an anti-authority stance.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick also chimed in on the state of the world order, proclaiming that “globalization has failed the West,” criticizing what he views as the shortcomings of the World Economic Forum (WEF). “It’s a failed policy,” he argued. “It is what the WEF has stood for, which is export, offshore, far-shore, find the cheapest labor in the world and the world is a better place for it.”

If there were any lingering questions about where the Trump Administration believes the United States fits into this evolving landscape, Lutnick made the answer abundantly clear: “The fact is [globalization] has left America behind. It has left the American workers behind. And what we are here to say is ‘America First’ is a different model, one that we encourage for other countries to consider, which is that our workers come first.”

Japanese 10 year yields shot up 9bp on Tuesday—after a 7.7bp gain on Monday—up to 2.35%, the highest level since 1997. While yields have been grinding higher since Takaichi took office in October, the latest surge can be attributed to her plan to cut the 8% tax on food, leaving skeptics hungry for a credible offset to the projected JPY 5T (USD 31.6b) revenue loss. This has also left JPY as the worst performing G10 currency on the day.

Japan’s Finance Minister, Katayama, has for her part said that she “would like everyone in the market to calm down.” Unfortunately for her, asking nicely for things rarely makes it so—a lesson that the EU is learning the hard way.

When asking nicely fails, rather than sliding into resignation, another option is to fire a bazooka at your opposition. As mentioned by Mike Every in yesterday’s installment, the EU could resort to its so-called “trade bazooka”—or the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) to be more precise. The ACI allows the EU the flexibility to adjust tariffs and restrict exports, or even impede on foreign direct investment. But unlike a normal bazooka, leveraging the ACI requires overcoming self-imposed bureaucratic hurdles.

While Brussels threatens to consider beginning the process of potentially starting conversations to employ the ACI, world leaders took to the stage (or perhaps the red carpet in Macron’s case) to come after Trump’s newly announced tariffs at Davos. If they’ve finally realized how negotiations really work when the other party holds all the cards, their recent spiels wouldn’t suggest as much, putting on a macho front as they face the world. Macron said that Trump was issuing “an endless accumulation of new tariffs that are fundamentally unacceptable,” while Ursula von der Leyen noted that “in politics as in business, a deal is a deal. And when friends shake hands, it must mean something.”

But Europe claims to have another weapon—offloading US Treasuries. Scott Bessent, however, appeared unperturbed by such threats, stating that “it’s been 48 hours, sit back, relax. I am confident that the leaders will not escalate and that this will work out.” While the eagerness to sell America may come across as impulsive, others frame is as a hedge against a weaker USD and deteriorating faith in US institutions. Déjà vu? The question remains, however; if we see mass dumping from European institutions, where do the dollars go?

Whether impulsive or prophetic, American assets did feel some heat yesterday as the S&P 500 closed down 2%. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields bear steepened with pressure concentrated on the long end, as the 10 year jumped more than 15bp since January 14 and reached levels not seen since August 2025.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 11:00

Markets Shrug After EU Freezes US Trade Deal Approval (Over Greenland Threat)

US equity markets are testing the highs of the day, completely ignoring the headlines coming from Europe that the European Parliament decided to freeze a ratification vote in response to President Donald Trump’s escalating threats to seize Greenland.

Despite President Trump walking back his most vociferous rhetoric during his lengthy speech at Davos...

Trump began the Greenland portion of his speech by calling for "immediate negotiations" to acquire the Arctic territory, mocking Denmark for losing it "in six hours" during World War II.

But he also signaled it was time for de-escalation with NATO, dismissing fears that the U.S. military would attack its own allies.

Trump said that if the U.S. decided to take Greenland by force it would be "unstoppable," but "I don't want to use force. I won't use force. All the United States is asking for is a place called Greenland."

...the EU Parliament’s trade committee postponed the vote indefinitely on Wednesday, casting doubt on whether the pact will ever get across the finish line. 

“By threatening the territorial integrity and sovereignty of an EU member state and by using tariffs as a coercive instrument, the US is undermining the stability and predictability of EU-US trade relations,” said Bernd Lange, chair of Parliament’s trade committee, in a statement.

“We have been left with no alternative but to suspend work” on the trade deal, Lange added, “until the US decides to reengage on a path of cooperation rather than confrontation.”

Trump's actions (and now Europe's) have pushed the trade policy uncertainty index up dramatically (but well off Liberation Day highs)...

...and stocks could not care less (with Small Caps having now erased all the Greenland drama losses)...

Certainly seems that the market's focus was on the possibility of kinetic action and not just a 'disagreement' over Greenland per se.

Wednesday’s decision was expected after senior lawmakers from Parliament’s largest political groups proposed a delay on Saturday, following Trump’s tariff announcement. 

Manfred Weber, leader of Parliament’s largest group, the center-right European People’s Party, said on Wednesday that “for us as EPP, and I think for all parliamentarians, it’s clear there will be no ratification, no zero percentage tariffs access to the EU for US products until we have clarified the question of reliability.”

“Europe prefers dialogue and solutions — but we are fully prepared to act, if necessary, with unity, urgency and determination,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the EU’s top executive, told EU lawmakers on Wednesday morning.

Additionally, Politico confirms earlier reports that Germany has joined France in saying it will ask the Commission to explore unleashing the Anti-Coercion Instrument at the emergency EU leaders' summit in Brussels on Thursday evening if Trump doesn’t walk back his Greenland threats (which he just did?).

Much to the Europeans' chagrin (who appear to have taken their decision before Trump's speech de-escalated the very things that they feared), we suspect Trump will not take any action to appease them to get the trade deal done unless and until the market 'demands' it.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 10:44

Kraft Heinz's Top Shareholder Berkshire Plots Exit

Kraft Heinz shares are down about 7.5% in New York premarket trading, the biggest drop in just under four years, after the company filed an 8K allowing Berkshire Hathaway to sell up to 325.4 million shares of stock if it chooses to do so.

Kraft Heinz's permission to sell is not an actual sale. No shares have been sold as a result of this filing, and Berkshire is not obligated to sell anything.

The proposed sale of the 325.4 million shares by Berkshire represents about 28% of the packaged-food company. This comes as the company recently announced plans to split into two.

Berkshire's Warren Buffett expressed disappointment last year about the potential split of the two companies. Berkshire played a critical role in the 2015 merger, partnering with 3G Capital as a financial backer.

As a result of the 8K filing, Kraft Heinz shares were down 7.5% in premarket trading on Wednesday. If losses extend and hold through the cash session, this would mark the largest daily decline since May 18, 2022, of -9.5%.

Kraft Heinz shares have tumbled 76% since peaking at around $100 per share in early 2017.

Berkshire, Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street, Geode Capital, Morgan Stanley, Nordea Bank, and UBS are the top shareholders of Kraft Heinz.

Bloomberg noted, "After years of underperformance, Kraft Heinz announced in September that it would separate into two public companies, essentially undoing its $46 billion mega-merger from a decade ago. Its chairman has blamed the company's poor performance on an overly complex corporate structure and the inability to focus on capital allocation and the right projects to prioritize. Kraft Heinz also replaced its chief executive officer at the start of this month."

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 10:35

US Pending Home Sales Crash Most Since COVID, Back Near Record Lows

After four straight months of increases, US pending home sales crashed in December (-9.3% MoM vs -0.3% MoM exp), dragging sales down 1.27% YoY in 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

This is the biggest monthly decline since COVID.

“The housing sector is not out of the woods yet,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

“After several months of encouraging signs in pending contracts and closed sales, the December new contract figures have dampened the short-term outlook.”

December's collapse crashed the US Pending Home Sales Index back near record lows (from 33 month highs)...

Source: Bloomberg

Housing activity typically slows in winter months and picks up more in the spring selling season. While NAR adjusts the data for these patterns, the drop was still the largest for any December in data back to 2001. 

Yun said it’s unclear whether the figure was a one-off or the start of a worsening trend.

Activity may pick up soon as mortgage rates have kicked off the new year at some of the lowest levels since 2022, and home prices are growing at a much slower pace than last year. However, much of the outlook also depends on available inventory, which has struggled to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

Pending-homes sales tend to be a leading indicator for previously owned homes, as houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

Meanwhile, addressing affordability concerns, President Trump just laid out a slate of proposals aimed at the housing market including an executive order targeting institutional investors.
 

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 10:08

Nuclear Stocks Surge After Trump Tells Davos "US Going Heavy Into Nuclear"

President Trump opened his speech at Davos with a major plug for the US nuclear industry.

Trump: "The US is going heavy into nuclear. I wasn't a fan of nuclear, but the safety progress they've made with nuclear is unbelievable. We are very much into the world of nuclear energy"

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 21, 2026

Nuclear fuel chain and reactor developer stocks spiked in the premarket on Trump‘s comments.

The US nuclear industry has suffered decades of atrophy under the crushing weight of nuclear disaster fears, cheap natural gas, crushing regulation hurdles and brutal lawfare from environmental (spoken “anti-nuclear”) activists. But thanks to the unprecedented support from the current federal administration, in particular from Energy Secretary Chris Wright, nuclear is finally “cool” again.

As we’ve covered dozens of times over just the past few months, the current administration is taking an all hands-on deck approach for reinvigorating the nuclear industry.

*BESSENT: U.S. IS BEHIND CHINA ON NUCLEAR POWER BUT WILL CATCH UP
*BESSENT: IT'S ALL HANDS ON DECK FOR NUCLEAR POWER

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 30, 2025

The US government has recognized the deficit at every stage of the nuclear industry from the lack of domestic uranium mining, the devoid enrichment capacity, the lack of heavy manufacturing and fabrication, and the absence of advanced reactor development.

The industry has thankfully received waves of support from the government in the form of awards for enrichment, high speed licensing pathways, and new potential nuclear applications, including launching reactors into space for moon colonization.

There’s even more bullish events on the horizon, as we detailed the near term catalyst for the nuclear fuel chain participants with the DOJ granting antitrust immunity for participants willing to revitalize domestic capabilities.

Hundreds of billions of dollars have also been predesignated for reactor development in the US, both from domestic government support and foreign aid from countries like Japan and South Korea.

We are very likely still in the earliest stages of the US nuclear renaissance.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 09:55

US NatGas Poised For Biggest Weekly Spike On Record As "Blizzard Of '96" Fears Resurface

U.S. natural gas futures are on pace for the largest weekly increase on record, according to Bloomberg data spanning more than 35 years.

An Arctic air invasion of the eastern half of the US, combined with the increasing risk of a major winter storm stretching from Texas through the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast by this weekend, has triggered sharp upside repricing and panic-style buying in NatGas futures.

As of Wednesday morning, New York NatGas futures are up another 19%. Combined with earlier gains this week, prices have jumped roughly 50% so far. If these gains are sustained through Friday, it would mark the largest weekly increase in NatGas on record, going back to 1990.

The sharp repricing of NatGas futures nearly sent prices to the $5 level earlier in the trading session.

We have documented the incoming cold blast and winter storm threats, with impacts on energy markets in the last five days:

• This Could Be The Big One

• NatGas Futs Erupt As Arctic Air Invasion Penetrates Deep Into US South

• US NatGas Spikes Most Since Ukraine Invasion On Arctic Blast, Major Winter Storm Threat

Ranald Falconer, a derivatives trader at Goldman, provided clients with more color on what could be a historic cold blast for the eastern half of the Lower 48:

Henry Hub on an absolute tear overnight! Front natural gas contracts hit a $4.95 high overnight, peaking just before the London open. The over-riding story here has not changed a great deal, as I mentioned yesterday when looking at Europe, cold weather fronts have been pushed deeper into Jan, and now Feb.

That draw on gas for heating has obviously pushed flat price in Q1 higher, and with it we have seen shorts get stopped out. That isn’t new; I mentioned some sizable Feb/Mar shorts being bought back end of last week, and yesterday similar in TTF. Overnight though, that is one heck of a move! If that is flat price stops in Feb and Mar, it is a strange time of day to put that sort of volume through the screens. I have Feb and Mar trading 3.5x and 4.0x their normal daily accumulated volume at this point.

This note is slightly later than I would have been able to bash it out, but I have had about 6 or 7 separate conversations on the topic with people a lot smarter in the gas world than me. Most poignant comment was that they had not seen such a dramatic change in the weather runs.

The NOAA chart below is probably the most simplistic way to visualise this without going into the weeds on the vortex and disruption there. Simply put, a strong high pressure area over Northern Canada is stretching the vortex north to south, which displaces the vortex core and causes northerly flow over the Eastern States.

I don’t think I have ever seen that shade of blue on the short term forecasts on NOAA, not sure I would want to be in New York over the next week.

Alongside the cold temperatures, NOAA forecasts frigid cold air to be accompanied by gusty winds taking the wind chill factor into play too. The kicker to the Jan balmo is that these forecasts now stretch into Feb; note that the Euro Weekly data had Feb at max warm in early Feb not that long ago.

With this spike we will be pricing in LNG shut-in too as export facilities continue to pull feed gas from domestic production, this may now be required for HHDs.

Fundamentally, there has been no disruption that I can see or read, so this is all weather and a severe volume move overnight. It will be interesting to see how positioning in Q2 stacks up as we move into spring forecasts.

The latest models from private weather forecaster BAMWX of the upcoming storm have some of us reminiscing about the January 1996 blizzard that blanketed the Washington, DC, region with feet of snow...

The January 1996 blizzard:

Stay warm! Prepare.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 08:45

World Cup Lift: Goldman Forecasts Retailers' Potential Bounce From The 'Beautiful Game'

Believe it or not, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is just five months away, spanning 11 stadiums across 11 U.S. metro areas.

Expected foot traffic trends suggest meaningful pre-event demand for fan gear, such as jerseys, hats, and jackets, at nearby sporting goods retailers as the tournament kicks off in early June.

Goldman Sachs Managing Director Kate McShane told clients on Tuesday that Academy Sports and Outdoors and Dick's Sporting Goods stores near the FIFA World Cup will likely see a tick up in foot traffic.

"We found that ~14% of ASO stores are within 25 miles of the World Cup stadiums, compared to ~12% at DKS, while noting ASO has a relatively smaller store base concentrated in the Southeastern US," McShane said.

McShane explained:

ASO and DKS footprint analysis

There are 11 FIFA World Cup stadiums in the US, with locations consisting of Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Miami, New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, the San Francisco Bay Area, and Seattle. To assess the company footprint in each location, we looked at the number and percentage of stores within a 25-mile radius of each stadium using Placer. Additionally, to account for locals who might travel further to a stadium (versus tourists likely staying closer by), we also considered the company footprint within the CBSA (core-based statistical area) of each stadium. Of note, the store counts reflect locations available on Placer. For DKS, including both Dick's Sporting Goods and Dick's House of Sport, 11.8% of stores are within 25 miles of the stadiums, while 18.3% of stores are in the same CBSA as the stadiums. Looking to ASO, 13.6% of stores are within 25 miles of the stadiums, while 22.3% of stores are in the same CBSA as the stadiums. We would note that while the percentages are higher for ASO versus DKS, ASO's overall store footprint is smaller.

What could this mean for sales?

For ASO and DKS, we assume that stores within 25 miles of the World Cup stadiums see a +MSD sales lift in June and July, while the remainder of the fleet experiences a +LSD sales lift. For ASO, this could result in $15mn to $36mn of incremental sales in 2Q, or a ~1.0% to 2.3% comp lift. Looking at DKS (Dick's Sporting Goods, House of Sport), this could result in $26mn to $65mn of incremental sales in 2Q, or a ~0.7% to 1.8% comp lift. We are not including any uplift in comp from the possible uptick in team sports we could see at the end of Q2 into early Q3 if more people are inspired to play soccer as a result of the World Cup event.

What could this mean for sales?

For ASO and DKS, we assume that stores within 25 miles of the World Cup stadiums see a +MSD sales lift in June and July, while the remainder of the fleet experiences a +LSD sales lift. For ASO, this could result in $15mn to $36mn of incremental sales in 2Q, or a ~1.0% to 2.3% comp lift. Looking at DKS (Dick’s Sporting Goods, House of Sport), this could result in $26mn to $65mn of incremental sales in 2Q, or a ~0.7% to 1.8% comp lift. We are not including any uplift in comp from the possible uptick in team sports we could see at the end of Q2 into early Q3 if more people are inspired to play soccer as a result of the World Cup event.

Company commentary

ASO expects to see a material impact from the World Cup in 2Q, specifically in June and July, noting the company has 40+ games in its markets, and 20% of ASO's customers are Hispanic. That said, ASO cannot quantify the exact impact from the upcoming World Cup as its business was different the last time this happened. Per management, the question is how long the impact lasts and if you see an uptick in youth soccer, which they believe is likely. ASO noted that soccer balls and jerseys are selling now, while more soccer accessories are expected to be sold in the spring, and additional items with logos as you get closer to the games. The company expects to have the World Cup as a focus in the portion of stores that they frequently turn over for four weeks in June and July, noting that this will likely impact the sports & recreation and apparel categories, without a massive jump in cleats.

At a recent conference, DKS management stated that the World Cup will the biggest sports moment the country has ever had, noting that World Cup balls are selling well, along with license in general. Per management, DKS expects to see increased demand around the event, noting it is leaning into license with a prominent offering that is regionally relevant. Longer term, DKS also mentioned a potential tailwind in soccer participation trends

The current World Cup assortment online

DKS and ASO both have started to incorporate World Cup assortment into their stores, spanning across a wide range of categories such as apparel, footwear, and soccer balls. We note that for both companies, the assortment is not directly on their homepages and is listed under the "Fan Shop" segments - consumers have to be proactively shopping for the World Cup to find the assortment.

McShane's full note can be found in the usual place for ZeroHedge Pro Subs.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 06:55

Despite Mass Protests, UK Approves Controversial Chinese Mega-Embassy In London

Authored by Evgenia Filimianova via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Despite a weekend protest, the UK has approved plans for a new, significantly expanded Chinese embassy in central London, ending a planning dispute and overriding objections from local authorities and lawmakers who raised national security concerns.

An exterior view of the proposed site for the new Chinese Embassy, near Tower Bridge in London on June 23, 2023. Hannah McKay/Reuters

The Chinese communist regime purchased the Royal Mint Court site in 2018 and plans to convert it into a much larger embassy than its existing building in London. The site is located in the City of London, the capital’s financial district.

Tower Hamlets Council rejected China’s initial planning application in 2022, citing concerns about security, scale, and local impact. A revised application was submitted in July 2024, shortly after the Labour Party entered government.

The site for the proposed embassy lies close to major data cables and financial infrastructure that underpin the UK’s banking and communications systems, a factor that featured heavily in parliamentary objections

Approval was granted on Jan. 20 by Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government Steve Reed.

The UK’s domestic and foreign intelligence agencies said security risks linked to the new embassy could not be fully eliminated, but could be managed through mitigation measures.

In a joint letter to Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, MI5 Director General Ken McCallum and GCHQ’s Director Anne Keast-Butler said it was “not realistic to expect to be able wholly to eliminate each and every potential risk.”

The intelligence chiefs added that the work to develop a package of national security mitigations for the Royal Mint Court site had been proportionate.

Reed said in a Jan. 20 statement that the decision is final unless overturned by a court challenge. He said the approval was based on the recommendation of an independent planning inspector who held a public inquiry between Feb. 11 and Feb. 19, 2025.

Political Backlash

Opposition lawmakers from across the political spectrum criticized the approval.

Shadow Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government James Cleverly from the Conservative Party described it as “a disgraceful act.”

The Conservative Party’s shadow secretary of state for culture, media and sport, Nigel Huddleston, said in a Jan. 20 post on X that there were multiple reasons to oppose the project, including heritage concerns, citing historical sites the new embassy will sit atop, including the Royal Mint and a medieval Cistercian abbey.

The Liberal Democrats said on Jan. 20 that allowing the embassy to proceed was Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s biggest mistake yet. The party’s foreign affairs spokesman, Calum Miller, said the decision “will amplify China’s surveillance efforts here in the UK and endanger the security of our data.”

Protesters outside a proposed site for a new Chinese Embassy in London on Jan. 17, 2026. Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

A Reform UK spokesman said the decision to grant the new Chinese embassy planning permission “represents a serious threat to national security.”

Baroness Kennedy of the Shaws, a co-chair of the cross-party Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, said British lawmakers should take a firmer stance toward Beijing.

“Whilst British parliamentarians, like myself, remain unjustly sanctioned and British citizen Jimmy Lai remains imprisoned on political charges, the UK must take a principled stand,” she said. “We cannot reinforce the dangerous notion that Britain will continue to make concessions – such as granting a mega-embassy – without reciprocity or regard for the rule of law.”

A UK government spokesperson said on Jan. 20 that intelligence agencies had been involved throughout the process and that national security remained the top priority.

“This planning decision has been taken independently by the Secretary of State for Housing,” the spokesperson said. “This follows a process that began in 2018 when the then foreign secretary provided formal diplomatic consent for the site.”

The spokesperson said embassy construction was a normal feature of international relations.

“National security is our first duty,” they said, adding that “an extensive range of measures have been developed to manage any risks.”

The spokesperson also said China had agreed to consolidate seven existing diplomatic sites in London into one location, which the government said would provide “clear security advantages.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 06:30

De Beers Cuts Diamond Prices, Botswana Warns Of Prolonged Slump

De Beers, the world's largest diamond mining company, has warned of a prolonged downturn in the gem industry after cutting prices for the first time since 2024. Botswana is the epicenter of De Beers' diamond production, and declining output alongside falling prices is set to put significant pressure on the southern African nation's finances.

On Monday, Bloomberg News reported that De Beers cut its diamond prices for the first time in over a year, abandoning efforts to prop up the market amid faltering demand.

A combination of soft Chinese luxury spending, expanding market share for lab-grown stones, and added pressure from US tariffs on India has pressured the world's largest diamond exporter.

The Diamond Standard Index, a benchmark price measure for investment-grade natural diamonds, has fallen by more than half since peaking in early 2022. The index is now at a record low, with data going back to 2002.

As for Botswana, the Finance Ministry warned that diamond income could fall to 10.3 billion pula ($744 million) in FY2025-26, less than half the historical average of 25.3 billion pula, and that revenues may never fully recover.

"The recovery in mineral revenue is expected to be prolonged," the Finance Ministry wrote in a report ahead of the annual budget next month. "The shortfall is likely to persist over the medium to long term with a possibility of a non-recovery."

Bloomberg wasn't clear about the size of the price discount De Beers offered buyers for diamonds.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 05:45

"Rich Kids Of Iran" Flee To Turkish Nightclubs Amid Deadly Crackdown On Protesters: Report

The children of Iran's political and military elite are back in the spotlight for their opulent lifestyles amid reports that they fled the country to party in Turkish nightclubs, even as the regime's security forces carry out its deadliest crackdown on nationwide protests in years, the New York Post reports.

Anashid Hoseini, a model and designer, is married to the son of Iran’s ambassador to Denmark. They are considered part of the aghazadeh, or children of the elite

The phenomenon of Iran's affluent youth first drew international attention more than a decade ago through the Instagram account @richkidsoftehran (now with approximately 477,000 followers), which features eyebrow-raising posts of luxury cars such, watches, and designer gear.

Among the most infamous “Rich Kids of Iran" is Sasha Sobhani, the son of a former Iranian ambassador to Venezuela, who relocated to Spain in 2019 and has posted videos of his Lamborghini and other vehicles.

Sasha Sobhani, the son of a former Iranian ambassador to Venezuela, became a social media star showing off his expat life in Spain, where he moved in 2019. Instagram/sasha_sohbani

Another account belongs to Anashid Hoseini, who is married to the son of Iran's former ambassador to Denmark and whose Instagram account with over 1.7 million followers regularly displays expensive bling and designer handbags.

        View this post on Instagram                      

A post shared by Anashid Hoseini (@anashidhoseini)

The New York Post reports:

Amid an enforced internet blackout that allows an oppressive regime to commit “genocide under the cover of digital darkness,” according to one outraged expert, reporters from The Telegraph are said to have observed “rich Iranians” partying at a nightclub in a popular holiday hotspot on the border with Turkey.

And as the Telegraph reports:

The province of Van, in far-eastern Turkey, shares a mountainous border with Iran, making it a popular holiday destination for Iranians looking to party.

Despite the chaos at home – where more than two weeks of protests had been halted by deadly force and a total communications blackout – The Telegraph witnessed elite Iranians gathering to drink, socialise and party in Van city.

Locals said that in recent days, wealthy Iranians – some said to support the Islamic regime – had arrived in Turkey to escape the political instability, fearing the protesters might turn on them as well.

"They left Iran for now because they were worried about staying there. Here, they can feel safe. They have made a lot of money from their businesses in Iran, and then they come here to spend it," one Iranian said of the partygoers. 

"Imagine if, in your country, thousands of people had been killed. Would you have the heart to go out dancing in a bar?" another Iranian told the outlet. 

The renewed attention on Iran’s showdy elites has come into focus as Iranian authorities have now acknowledged that it’s brutal crackdown on protesters have resulted in significant casualties.

In a public address, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei conceded that "several thousand" Iranians died in the violence, which he unsurprisingly attributed to foreign-backed "rioters" and "terrorists" incited by President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

An unnamed Iranian official cited by Reuters estimated the verified death toll at least 5,000, including roughly 500 security personnel. Independent monitoring groups face challenges due to a near-total internet blackout, but the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) has confirmed more than 3,900 deaths, while other activist and medical sources inside Iran have cited figures ranging from 12,000 to 20,000 protester fatalities, according to CBS News.

Trump has repeatedly condemned the crackdown, urging protesters to continue their efforts and stating that "help is on its way.” The president has warned Tehran of "very strong action"—potentially including military measures—should executions of detained protesters proceed or the violence persist. The White House has said that all options remain under consideration, though to the eternal chagrin of warmongers like Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), recent assessments suggest a possible deescalation.

Will the Telegraph cover 'rich kids of Israel' partying it up while bombs drop on Gaza?

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 04:15