Zero Hedge

Will The New Fed Chair Fix The Money?

Will The New Fed Chair Fix The Money?

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The choice of Kevin Warsh as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve has received mixed reviews, as can be expected. His professional connections lean establishment in every way, which is perhaps not what Trump’s base expected.

More interesting is that Warsh is on record as an inflation hawk, a critic of zero-interest rate policies, and a critic of the war on cryptocurrency. All of this strikes me as a good sign, even if he has since hinted in the direction of favoring lower rates.

In 2023, he wrote the following:

“History will give a full accounting of the grave errors committed in recent years in economic policy. A central lesson is already clear: Nothing is as expensive as free money. The costs of the Federal Reserve’s zero-interest policy are multiplying: The misallocation of capital—goosing the price of the riskiest and least-productive of assets—set the conditions for boom and bust. The financing of the ‘big state’ set the country on an unsustainable fiscal trajectory. The extraordinarily loose financial conditions created herd behavior among market participants and firms and complacency among policy makers, including regulators. The surge in inflation substantially raised the cost of living for citizens and undermined business planning.”

Every word of that is true. Having someone at the Fed who believes that way should come as a great relief.

The surprising part is that Trump himself has spent years denouncing the Fed for having raised interest rates faster than ever before in Fed history. He has also called for a dramatic lowering of rates to make the United States more competitive, thoughts that have people like me worried that such a policy would kick off a second wave of inflation.

Former Federal Reserve board member Kevin Warsh speaks during a monetary policy conference at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution in Palo Alto, Calif., on May 9, 2025. Ann Saphir/Reuters

Warsh seems to have his doubts about such a policy:

“The Fed seeks to fix interest rates and control foreign-exchange rates simultaneously—an impossible task with the free flow of capital. Its ‘forward guidance,’ promising low interest rates well into the future, offers ambiguity in the name of clarity. It licenses a cacophony of communications in the name of transparency. And it expresses grave concern about income inequality while refusing to acknowledge that its policies unfairly increased asset inequality.”

In the backdrop of all of this is what has been a disastrous policy at the Fed from 2020 onward, creating some $6 trillion in new money in service of a congressional plan to shower the country with money directly into people’s bank accounts. That this would lead to a devastating inflation is hardly a surprise. No student of money and finance could possibly doubt that this would be the result.

Why did this not happen with a similar quantitative easing back in 2008? Because in those days, the policy of then-Chairman Ben Bernanke was to pay more than the market rate for bank deposits, thus keeping hot money off the streets and safely in the bank vaults.

Warsh identifies the underlying problems with such a policy:

“The misallocation of capital—goosing the price of the riskiest and least-productive of assets—set the conditions for boom and bust.”

What he has identified here is a pattern known since the 1930s. John Maynard Keynes imagined that the central bank could drive rates to zero and generate prosperity as if by magic. The American and Austrian critics of that policy drew attention to deeper complexities. Interest rates serve a crucial role as a signaling system for investment. Artificially low rates essentially send false signals that set up conditions for a subsequent bust.

In other words, the policy of discretion designed to blow countervailing winds toward business cycle trends actually ends up creating and worsening the thing it was designed to fix. When that happens, the only possible way out is to let the recession happen, rebalance the capital structure, and clear the table to enable a new round of prosperity and growth.

To be sure, it’s been 40 years since the Fed has permitted a recession to happen without wild interventions designed to prevent them.

The layers upon layers of interventions keep piling up higher and higher, all built on a false foundation of debt. This is not only a national problem; the entire world economy is now addicted to debt finance, with no end in sight.

Let’s please take a step back and understand how this whole system is supposed to work in a genuine free market with sound money and no central bank.

In a state of nature, you consume what you produce: You catch a fish and eat it. If you want to grow more prosperous, you have to spend your time making a capital good such as a net that enables you to catch more fish. That little story illustrates the central point: All prosperity grows out of deferred consumption.

What about loan markets? When capital grows and the funds become available for lending, the price at which they are lent is called the interest rate. It is a measure of risk that the loan won’t be paid back and also a sign of time horizons. Longer time horizons would typically involve paying a higher rate rather than a lower rate of interest. This is what creates the yield curve, which is typically upward-sloping.

What about a base interest rate? It should be exactly what the market of supply and demand determine it should be, no higher and no lower. For example, if there is a vast amount of saved capital in the banking system—because people are really socking away funds for the future—there is a great quantity available for borrowers. This higher savings will lead to a lower rate of interest.

That’s the supply side of the equation. On the demand side, lower interest rates will intensify the desire for loaned funds from businesses and consumers. In effect, loan markets make it possible for savers to profit from lending to borrowers and be rewarded for doing so. All told, this is a beautiful system from which everyone benefits—provided it is not abused or manipulated for political purposes.

When interest rates are suppressed by the central bank or when government issues debt instruments below market rates, they are effectively gaming the system. It sends a signal that there are more savings, more capital, more loanable funds available in the loan markets than really exist. This affects capital investment in particular, as the most enterprising sector takes on liabilities with the intention of servicing them from future revenue streams.

When the plans flip in the other direction is when consumers lack the savings to justify the level of investment. That’s essentially what recession is: a reset toward reality. But if the central bank tries to ride through the recession with more and more cheap money, it risks more inflation unless there is a market for the funds. This is when the debt contagion spreads to more enterprises, more consumers, and more financial companies looking for a sure return. So long as the increase in financial outpaces the burden of debt obligations, this crazy system can create the appearance of something that works.

In case you haven’t guessed, that’s where we are right now, not just in the first stages but in very advanced stages. This is the world that the new Fed chair inherits. It makes his job even harder that the Fed’s own balance sheet is still out of whack from the 2008 rescue that saddled the Fed with mispriced debt assets that it still has not off-loaded.

People ask whether I’m optimistic or pessimistic about the new Fed chair. I’m neither. My prediction is that he will do a competent job at what he is supposed to do, which is keep the whole system of banking and finance afloat and out of crisis. All of Warsh’s editorializing at this point becomes mere theory as compared with the burdens of actually performing this job.

The Fed is not really a stabilizer of macroeconomic policy. It is a banking cartel designed to protect the financial system and government against the consequences of mismanagement.

In general, my sense is that Trump could have done better or he could have done worse. The real problem is that the job exists at all. Ideally, we would move back toward an honest system of enterprise, with a correctly priced loan market, sound money, competitive banks, and honest economic structures that are not so debt addicted. On that score, there is no reason for very high expectations.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 20:55

Security Expert: Illegal Minneapolis Checkpoints Trace Back To Marxist, Anarchist Movements

Security Expert: Illegal Minneapolis Checkpoints Trace Back To Marxist, Anarchist Movements

The eruption of "Signal-Gate" revealed the organizational structure and command-and-control nodes of left-wing activists operating within encrypted messaging apps to unleash pressure campaigns against federal agents in Minneapolis. This structure is very revealing and, according to some security experts, is deeply rooted in revolutionary tradition.

Anti-Immigration and Customs Enforcement checkpoints have sprung up across the sanctuary city of Minneapolis in recent weeks. These makeshift checkpoints on city streets are operated by left-wing activists who track traffic in and out of specific areas, searching for ICE vehicles, and there are reports from Fox News that some agitators even have the ability to check license plates.

J. Michael Waller, senior analyst for Strategy at the Center for Security Policy, provided important color on the emergence of "illegal checkpoints" in Minneapolis.

Waller explained:

Illegal checkpoints on public streets have a long history in Marxist and anarchist tradition.

They symbolize organized self-defense against "oppressors," an empowerment of "the people" to seize urban space to confront the class enemy.

When organized as barricades to block passage, they become instruments of insurrection, dating back to the 1848 revolutions of Europe and the 1871 Paris Commune.

Marxists treat barricades as symbols of transition from civil protest to armed struggle.

Barricades mark the point when Marxists stop appealing to constitutional authority, and build structures for alternative power.

For anarchists, the barricade represents "direct action" and "horizontal self-organization" - the building of defenses without formal hierarchies or central leaders.

Anarchists view barricades as a reclaimed public space. Checkpoints and barricades turn the streets from channels of commerce and state control into zones of collective autonomy and mutual aid during insurrections or insurgencies.

We have profiled the rise of left-wing chaos, warning last year that billionaire-funded NGOs were funneling money into the protest industrial complex seeking revolution. In other words, a color revolution ...

Last week, Joe Rogan and guest Andrew Wilson, a conservative podcaster, framed the chaos emanating from Minneapolis as a "color revolution."

There is good news on multiple fronts. Tom Homan announced early Wednesday that an unprecedented number of counties in Minnesota are now cooperating with the federal government on the deportation of illegal aliens. That coordination has allowed Homan to authorize an immediate reduction in the federal agents across the metro area, a move viewed by us as a deliberate effort by the administration to de-escalate tensions and defuse the chaotic situation.

The second piece of good news came last month when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sat down with journalist Christopher Rufo and discussed plans to investigate dark-money-funded NGOs sowing chaos nationwide.

What the Trump administration has shown, and effectively forced into the open by surging federal agents into Minneapolis, is that the Democratic Party's left-wing militant arm, such as Antifa, operates within an organizational structure pushing a revolutionary agenda.

Returning to Waller's comments above about barricades and Marxist movements, the revolutionary picture should now be clearer than ever for the American public and for the White House about what's really going on.

It may also be time for the White House to take seriously the remarks made by retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn in late November:

From our view, elements within the Democratic Party are encouraging a rolling cycle of mass mobilization through the nonprofit world aimed at revolution against Trump and all-things 'America First'. The focus of agitation appears to rotate by topic, moving from the George Floyd riots earlier this decade to more recent pro-Palestinian protests, and now to anti-ICE actions, while relying on the same activist network of nonprofits, propaganda channels, and street-level tactics. The deeper understanding here is that there's a left-wing revolution brewing.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 20:30

Run It Hot: Trump, The Fed, & The Coming Currency Debasement

Run It Hot: Trump, The Fed, & The Coming Currency Debasement

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

The Trump administration has made no secret of its desire to push the monetary easing pedal to the metal, even as the engine is already near the red line. They intend to push the system as hard as possible today and worry about the consequences later. One reason may be to inflate the stock market ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

There are several indicators that the Trump administration intends to run it hot in 2026.

The first — and most important — is that Trump will likely succeed in consolidating control over the Federal Reserve.

Jerome Powell’s term as Chair of the Federal Reserve is scheduled to expire in May 2026, allowing Trump to appoint his replacement. Powell attempted — largely unsuccessfully — to resist Trump’s pressure for easier monetary conditions.

I expect Trump will get his way with the Fed in 2026, and that the central bank will bend to his demands. By replacing Powell, Trump will further stack the Fed with loyalists. The result will be money printing on a scale we’ve never seen before.

Further, Stephen Miran — another of Trump’s recent successful nominees to the Federal Reserve Board — has been pushing the idea of what he calls the Fed’s “third mandate.”

Traditionally, the Fed has two mandates: price stability and maximum employment. Miran’s proposed third mandate would be for the Fed to “moderate long-term interest rates.”

What that really means is that the Fed would openly finance the federal government by creating new dollars to buy long-term debt, keeping yields artificially low. In other words, the so-called third mandate is an explicit admission that the Fed is no longer independent. It would become a political tool used to fund government spending.

Without this support, massive federal spending would flood the market with Treasuries, pushing interest rates much higher. But with the Fed stepping in, Washington can keep borrowing while holding rates down — at least for a while. The catch is that this comes at the cost of debasing the dollar. Eventually, that debasement will force investors to demand higher yields anyway, only worsening the problem.

Remember, after Nixon severed the dollar’s last link to gold in 1971, the unspoken promise was that Washington would act as a responsible steward of its fiat currency. Central to that promise was the illusion that the Federal Reserve would remain independent of political pressure.

The idea was simple: without at least the appearance of independence, investors would see the Fed for what it is — a funding arm for spendthrift politicians — and confidence in the dollar would collapse.

That illusion is now shattering.

Let’s be clear: central banks were never truly independent. That’s why it was always an illusion — a societal myth. They exist to siphon wealth from the public through inflation and funnel it to the politically connected. The Fed’s independence was always a mirage — and now it’s disappearing fast.

Further, late last year, the Fed embarked on a new interest rate cutting cycle, even though, according to their own rigged CPI metrics, prices are rising at 2.7%, well above their 2% target.

The Fed has already cut rates by around 50 basis points in 2025 and signaled that more rate cuts are coming in 2026.

The Fed recently announced that it has ended the shrinking of its balance sheet and will now begin expanding it again, starting with the purchase of $40 billion in Treasuries in December.

The Fed insists this isn’t quantitative easing, calling it “reserve management” and pointing out that it isn’t explicitly targeting long-term Treasuries. That’s just wordplay. Buying Treasuries with newly created money is money printing, regardless of what label they attach to it. The Fed’s balance sheet is expanding again. A new printing cycle has begun.

We’ve seen this pattern repeatedly. The Fed expands its balance sheet, then tries to shrink it. Something eventually breaks in the financial system, and the Fed pivots right back to easing and money creation. Each time this happens, the balance sheet never returns to its prior level. It ratchets permanently higher with every cycle of debasement.

What makes the current situation especially telling is that the Fed is entering another balance-sheet expansion phase even though the balance sheet is still more than 50% larger than it was before the Covid mass psychosis. Before 2020, the Fed’s balance sheet was roughly $4 trillion. It exploded to nearly $9 trillion during the Covid response. Even after so-called “quantitative tightening,” it remains around $6.5 trillion — nowhere near its pre-Covid level.

This completely contradicts the Fed’s long-standing claim that programs like QE are temporary.

Remember when former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke promised the balance sheet would eventually normalize after the 2008 financial crisis? That promise was made nearly 15 years ago, when the Fed’s balance sheet was around $2.5 trillion and was supposed to shrink back toward pre-crisis levels below $1 trillion. Instead, today the balance sheet is more than double what it was when Bernanke made that pledge — and now the Fed is entering yet another expansion cycle that threatens to push it even higher.

The long-term trend is obvious. The balance sheet only goes one direction: up. And the implication is unavoidable. Every time the Fed expands its balance sheet, it debases the currency. This isn’t an accident or a temporary policy error — it’s the core feature of the system.

If you’re wondering what comes next, look at the red circle on the chart below—and note what followed the last time the Fed shifted from shrinking its balance sheet to expanding it.

We are now in the top of the first inning of what may become the most aggressive balance sheet expansion cycle in the Fed’s history.

So let’s put it all together.

The midterms are coming in 2026, and Trump wants to boost the stock market.

Trump will get to replace Fed Chair Powell with a loyalist, consolidating control over the central bank.

The Fed has embarked on a new rate-cutting cycle, despite inflation still running well above its stated targets.

The Fed has ended the shrinking of its balance sheet and has begun expanding it again, buying tens of billions of dollars’ worth of Treasuries each month.

All signs point to a continued nominal melt-up in the stock market in 2026 — and ever-accelerating currency debasement.

The trajectory is clear. When monetary policy becomes a political tool and money printing turns permanent, the risks aren’t abstract — they’re personal. Currency debasement doesn’t just distort markets; it quietly erodes savings, purchasing power, and individual freedom.

The real question isn’t whether this process continues — it’s how prepared you are when it accelerates.

That’s why I’ve put together a free PDF report: The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years… the Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now. Inside, you’ll learn: How the economic, political, and cultural forces now in motion are converging into a single systemic crisis, what the coming risks really mean for your money, your security, and your personal freedom, and the three concrete strategies you can use right now to position yourself ahead of what’s coming. This isn’t about fear. It’s about clarity — and taking action before the consequences become unavoidable. Click here to download the free PDF report and get prepared while you still can.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 20:05

Putin Notifies Xi Of New START Status As Trump Ready To Let Go Of Nuclear Arms Control With Russia

Putin Notifies Xi Of New START Status As Trump Ready To Let Go Of Nuclear Arms Control With Russia

President Putin in his Wednesday video call with Chinese President Xi Jinping underscored that the last major nuclear treaty with the United States is on the eve of collapse.

New START is set to expire on Thursday. Putin notified Xi that Washington has not yet responded. "As you know, on September 22, 2025, we proposed to the Americans to extend the key quantitative limits for one year as voluntary self-restrictions. However, we have not yet received an official response from the Americans," Putin said, as quoted in state media.

Despite the situation with the New START Treaty, Russia remains open "to seeking negotiated ways to ensure strategic stability" - the Russian leader explained.

via Chinese state media/BBC

Putin further stated his country will act "in a measured and responsible manner, based on a thorough analysis of the overall security situation."

Over several years going back to his first term, Trump has signaled a desire to forge a broader deal which would bring China into the agreement, which hearkens back to the Obama administration. 

Politico is meanwhile reporting that the Trump administration is preparing to "let go of arms control with Russia":

The likely dissolution of the agreement comes at an especially fraught time. Russia and China are expanding their strategic arsenals and the Kremlin has threatened to use nuclear weapons on Ukraine. The Defense Department has held a series of internal meetings in preparation for a post-New START world, according to the two people and another person familiar — all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss internal talks — although it’s not clear what was discussed in the meetings.

“We’re looking at a very uncertain path ahead,” said Daryl Kimball, the executive director of the Arms Control Association. “Unless Trump and Putin reach some sort of understanding soon, it’s not unlikely that Russia and the U.S. will start to upload more warheads on their missiles.”

The Kremlin has made clear Russia is willing to extend it for another year, to allow more robust negotiations and for a longer deal to be finalized. But again, unless it is renewed or extended at the last minute, the landmark treaty will expire on Thursday, February 5.

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of the country's Security Council, on Monday made clear that Russia's offer to quickly extend "remains on the table, and the treaty has not even expired yet, and if the American side wants to extend it, then this can be done."

He also confirmed that Moscow has received no response on this offer from Washington:

Medvedev told the newspaper Kommersant that Moscow might have to wait until the expiry of the treaty on February 5 for a U.S. response to the Russian initiative.

When contacted for comment, a White House official told Newsweek Monday: "The president will decide the path forward on nuclear arms control, which he will clarify on his own timeline."  

Indeed, the Trump White House has yet to issue anything official. Of course, President Trump is also known for making key decisions at the last moment, building suspense and leverage, based on also on his notorious unpredictable decision-making style.

According to Monica Duffy Toft, professor of international politics and director of the Center for Strategic Studies at The Fletcher School, "By providing transparency into the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals, New START has lowered the risk that either side will misinterpret normal military activity as preparation for a nuclear strike."

It was signed in 2010 by Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, and limits the number of deployed strategic warheads to 1,550 per side, and caps deployed delivery systems - including of missiles, bombers, and submarines - at 700. There's also a mutual inspection regimen, allowing each side to monitor the other's sites.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 19:40

DHS Reports More Than 180 Vehicle Attacks On Law Enforcement

DHS Reports More Than 180 Vehicle Attacks On Law Enforcement

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Immigration officers have faced 182 vehicular attacks since President Donald Trump took office last year, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said in a Feb. 3 statement.

Out of the 182 attacks between Jan. 21, 2025, and Jan. 24, 2026, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officers faced 114, up by 124 percent from the 51 attacks during the same time period the previous year. The remaining 68 attacks were faced by officers from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Attacks on ICE are up by 3,300 percent from two assaults previously, according to the DHS.

In an attack in September, an illegal immigrant from Guatemala hit and injured an ICE officer with his car while trying to evade arrest. The incident happened during a traffic stop when the man put his car in reverse and hit the officer in the leg, nearly crushing the officer. The foreign national was eventually arrested.

In another attack earlier last month, two suspected associates of the Tren de Aragua gang weaponized their vehicle against Border Patrol. One agent took immediate action to defend himself and others, shooting the illegal immigrants. No law enforcement personnel suffered injuries, while the illegal immigrants were hospitalized.

In its recent statement, DHS listed out several other similar vehicular attacks against immigration officers. The department cited DHS Secretary Kristi Noem’s warning that anyone who “lay a hand on a law enforcement officer” would be “prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.”

“Sanctuary politicians with their rhetoric comparing ICE to the Nazi Gestapo, slave patrols, and the secret police and encouraging illegal aliens to evade arrest have incited violence against law enforcement,” DHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin said in the Feb. 3 press release.

Democratic lawmakers have criticized the actions of immigration officers under the Trump administration.

In a Jan. 27 statement, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz characterized the immigration enforcement crackdown in the state as a “campaign of organized brutality” against people.

He criticized immigration agents for shooting to death two individuals in the state, and accused them of attacking “countless” protesters and bystanders.

One of the individuals was protestor Renee Good, whom an ICE officer shot on Jan. 7. Federal authorities say the officer acted in self-defense as Good allegedly attempted to hit the person with her vehicle during an enforcement operation.

The second individual, Alex Pretti, 37, was shot by a federal officer in Minneapolis on Jan. 24. Pretti allegedly carried a 9 mm semi-automatic handgun and was shot during an attempt to disarm him.

Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), who voted against a bill to fund DHS, justified his voting decision by alleging “cruelty” committed by ICE and CBP, according to a Jan. 29 statement from the lawmaker’s office.

ICE and CBP “have terrorized American cities, killed U.S. citizens, and detained innocent children. They continue to go after people with no criminal backgrounds, including arresting U.S. citizens exercising their First Amendment rights,” he said.

Meanwhile, in a Jan. 26 statement, DHS said there has been an 8,000 percent increase in death threats and a more than 1,300 percent surge in assaults against law enforcement officers.

DHS published the transcript of a voicemail received by an ICE officer in Minnesota last month, in which the caller asks the officer to “kill yourself,” wishing that his wife and both parents die. The caller characterizes the officer as a “murderer” and a “traitor to the American people.”

McLaughlin said the “unprecedented” violence against law enforcement officers was the result of “repeated vilification and demonization” of the personnel by lawmakers.

The officers “get up every morning to try and make our communities safer. Like everyone else, we just want to go home to our families at night. The violence and dehumanization of these men and women who are simply enforcing the law must stop,” she said.

Multiple incidents of assault on immigration officers have occurred over the past month.

On Jan. 14, DHS said in an X post that an ICE agent was hospitalized after being ambushed and attacked with a shovel by a Venezuelan illegal immigrant.

A couple of weeks later, on Jan. 28, Attorney General Pam Bondi said that 16 protesters in Minneapolis were arrested for allegedly assaulting law enforcement officers.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 19:15

Ken Griffin Torches Trump Over 'Distasteful Favoritism' And Conflicts Of Interest, Opens Door To Political Run

Ken Griffin Torches Trump Over 'Distasteful Favoritism' And Conflicts Of Interest, Opens Door To Political Run

Citadel CEO Ken Griffin raised eyebrows this week when he left the door open to future public service or even running for office, while issuing some of his sharpest criticism yet of President Donald Trump.



“I’d like to believe that at a future point in my life, I will be involved in public service,” Griffin said during an interview at the WSJ Invest Live event Tuesday. “I’ve been able to have my voice heard on important issues, and I’d like to think that I’ve nudged the country and in small ways in good directions.”

Griffin, a prominent Republican donor who contributed more than $100 million to conservative candidates and causes in the 2024 election cycle but did not back Trump’s re-election bid directly also took aim at the administration's approach to business, saying the business leaders are tiring of what he sees as appeasing the president.

“When the U.S. government starts to engage in corporate America in a way that tastes of favoritism, I know for most CEOs that I’m friends with, they find it incredibly distasteful,” the billionaire hedge fund manager said. “Most CEOs just don’t want to find themselves in the business of having to, in some sense, suck up to one administration after another to succeed in running their business.”

Griffin also ripped Trump and members of his inner circle for business dealings riddled with conflicts of interest, including the Trump family’s crypto company World Liberty Financial. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, UAE national security adviser, brother of the president, and often called the "Spy Sheikh," secretly acquired a 49% stake in World Liberty Financial for $500 million. The deal was signed by Eric Trump just days before his family’s second inauguration in January 2025. The president has denied any knowledge of the agreement.

“This administration has definitely made missteps in choosing decisions or courses that have been very, very enriching to the families of those in the administration,” Griffin said. “That calls into question, is the public interest being served?”

Griffin, who moved his hedge fund from Chicago to Palm Beach citing rising crime and high taxes in Democrat-run Illinois, teamed up with Stephen Ross this week to contribute $10 million to the "Ambition Accelerated" campaign through the Florida Council of 100, aiming to lure CEOs, founders, and investors to state’s Gold Coast.

“Where you choose to build a business determines how much time is spent driving growth versus navigating bureaucracy,” Griffin said in a statement. “Miami and the broader South Florida Gold Coast offer deep talent, regulatory clarity, and an extraordinary quality of life."

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 18:50

"You'd Be Justified In Shooting": Rep. Jerry Nadler Triggers Outcry Over Violent Rhetoric Against ICE

"You'd Be Justified In Shooting": Rep. Jerry Nadler Triggers Outcry Over Violent Rhetoric Against ICE

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Rep. Jerry Nadler (D., NY) is under fire this week for joining other Democratic members in reckless rhetoric to fuel the growing threats against federal law enforcement officers. Calling out the “fascism in our streets,” Nadler suggested that citizens could be justified in shooting masked agents, a chilling claim made earlier by other Democratic leaders.

The New York Post reported the comments made in a Judiciary Committee hearing. Nadler declared:

“What is really the major problem in this country today is the fascism in our streets. The attacks on American citizens, by masked hoodlums. If you were attacked by a masked person, you might think you were being kidnapped. You’d be justified in shooting the person — to protect yourself.”

The agents are wearing masks because different groups are actively publishing their identities and personal information online. The result has not only been doxxing but threats made against the families of these agents. Democratic politicians have pledged to assist in the effort to “unmask” and publish the identities of these officers as threats soar.

For many, these statements suggest that they have a license under laws like Stand Your Ground to shoot at agents and claim mistaken self-defense.

The continued use of such rhetoric in the face of soaring attacks and threats against officers is the worst form of demagoguery.

At the same time, members like Rep. Dan Goldman (D. NY) deny that there is evidence of a sharp increase in attacks despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

Notably, Nadler and his colleagues pushed for the impeachment of Donald Trump for what they called his inflammatory rhetoric on January 6th despite his call for the protests to remain peaceful.

Other members are engaging in the same hyperbolic rhetoric to appeal to the growing mob on the left.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D. Conn.) seems the most unhinged:

“What is happening in Minnesota right now is a dystopia. ICE is tear gassing elementary schools. It is disappearing legal residents into cars. It is murdering American citizens.”

Aspiring Democrats are getting the message.

Total Wine billionaire David Trone — who is running to recapture his Maryland congressional district from fellow Democrat Rep. April McClain-Delaney, declared this week that the federal government is “literally executing people on the streets” in “not just Minneapolis… all over the United States.”

Ohio Democratic Attorney General candidate Elliot Forhan is running on the catchy pledge that “I will kill Donald Trump.” It is a race to the bottom as Democratic leaders try to take the lead in mob politics.

When combined with the rationalization for the use of lethal force against officers, this rhetoric is not just inflammatory but dangerous. We have heard these voices before in our history.

As discussed in Rage and the Republic, we have a rising class of new Jacobins, politicians and pundits who are pandering to the mob. History does not bode well for these politicians seeking to ride the wave of rage when the mob turns against them.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 18:25

3 US Warships Dispatched To Haiti As Part Of Campaign Against Drug Traffickers

3 US Warships Dispatched To Haiti As Part Of Campaign Against Drug Traffickers

Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times,

Three U.S. warships have been sent to Haiti as part of Operation Southern Spear, a military operation in the Caribbean to counter narcotics trafficking.

“At the direction of the Secretary of War [Pete Hegseth], the ships USS Stockdale, USCGC Stone, and USCGC Diligence have arrived in the Bay of Port-au-Prince as part of Operation Southern Spear,” the U.S. Embassy in Haiti posted on X on Feb. 3.

The embassy said the presence of the warships reflects the United States’ “unwavering commitment to Haiti’s security, stability, and brighter future.”

The USS Stockdale is an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer based in San Diego, while USCGC Stone and USCGC Diligence are Coast Guard cutters based in North Charleston, South Carolina, and Pensacola, Florida, respectively.

“The U.S. Navy and U.S. Coast Guard reaffirm their partnership and support to ensure a safer and more prosperous Haiti,” the U.S. Embassy posted on X.

Operation Southern Spear is targeting narco-trafficking and has led to strikes on several drug smuggling boats since September 2025. On Jan. 3, Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro was captured and indicted on drug trafficking and other charges.

Another boat strike was carried out on Jan. 23, at an undisclosed location, according to U.S. Southern Command.

Unrest in Haiti

Haiti has been mired in political and economic turmoil since July 2021, when President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated at his home in the Haitian capital, Port-au-Prince, by a group of mercenaries, most of whom were Colombian nationals.

Gangs have proliferated and begun to dominate large parts of Haiti, and in May 2025, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio designated two of the largest gangs, Viv Ansanm and Gran Grif, as foreign terrorist organizations.

In November 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump published a new National Security Strategy, which calls for expanded naval and Coast Guard operations and aggressive targeting of drug cartels.

“We want to ensure that the Western Hemisphere remains reasonably stable and well-governed enough to prevent and discourage mass migration to the United States,” the strategy document states. “We want a Hemisphere whose governments cooperate with us against narco-terrorists, cartels, and other transnational criminal organizations.”

Haiti has not had elections since 2016. A nine-member Transitional Presidential Council was appointed in April 2024, but has been marked by allegations of corruption and a declining security situation in Haiti.

On Jan. 23, Haitian Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé, who was appointed by the Transitional Presidential Council, spoke to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said the call “reaffirmed U.S. support for Haiti’s stability and security.”

“The current violence caused by gangs can only be stopped with consistent, strong leadership, with the full support of the Haitian people,” the State Department said. Rubio said the Transitional Presidential Council ”must be dissolved by February 7 without corrupt actors seeking to interfere in Haiti’s path to elected governance for their own gains.”

Last month the State Department took steps to revoke the visas of two unidentified members of Haiti’s Transitional Presidential ‍Council (TPC) and their immediate families because of their alleged involvement in gangs.

“These actions are being taken due to the TPC members’ involvement in the operation of gangs and other criminal organizations in Haiti, including through interference with the Government of Haiti’s efforts to counter gangs designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO) by the United States,” the State Department said in a Jan. 25 statement.

In September 2025 the United Nations Security Council authorized the conversion of a Multinational Security Support mission—which had been deployed in Haiti in June 2024—into a 5,500-strong Gang Suppression Force.

China, Russia, and Pakistan abstained in the vote.

In December 2025, the United States and Canada said 18 entities had offered personnel, resources, and technical support for the Gang Suppression Force.

“We were looking for 5,500 forces,” Rubio said on Dec. 19, 2025. “We already have pledges of up to 7,500 forces from a variety of countries. We’ve seen donors step up to fund that effort.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 17:40

321 Quakes Hit San Francisco Bay In A Week – Is The San Andreas Fault Entering A Dangerous New Phase?

321 Quakes Hit San Francisco Bay In A Week – Is The San Andreas Fault Entering A Dangerous New Phase?

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

The west coast is shaking again.  In recent weeks we have witnessed so much seismic activity along the portion of the Pacific Ring of Fire that sits directly along the California coastline.  There had been hope that the shaking would settle down, but instead it appears to be accelerating.  

As you will see below, there have been 321 earthquakes in the San Francisco area within the past 7 days.  If I was living in northern California, that would definitely get my attention.  Scientists have warned us over and over again that “the Big One” is inevitably coming, and almost every day there are more reminders of this.  In fact, San Ramon was just hit by a swarm of more than 30 earthquakes on Monday morning…

A 4.2 earthquake struck near San Ramon Monday morning, following a 3.8 quake amid a string of over 30 temblors in the area, U.S. Geological Survey said.

The 4.2 quake struck at 7:01 a.m. and followed a string of quakes that began with a 3.8 at 6:27 a.m. Dozens of earthquakes have followed.

USGS said the 4.2 quake was about 9.4 km in depth.

A magnitude 4.2 quake is quite significant.

The shaking that it caused was so extensive that people living in the heart of San Francisco actually felt “windows rattling”…

Residents in San Francisco’s Glen Park and Nopa neighborhoods reported rumbling and ‘windows rattling’ during the quake, and public transportation throughout the area was also affected by the swarm, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.

The moderate quake even activated the National Tsunami Warning Center, however, officials said there was no danger of a major wave hitting the Bay Area.

Of course this was not an isolated incident.

According to the USGS, this latest earthquake swarm was “a continuation” of a pattern of heightened activity that the region has been experiencing since last November…

ABC7 Eyewitness News spoke with the USGS Monday morning, and they say this is a continuation of the swarm of quakes the area has been experiencing.

On Friday, the area saw its first earthquake in several weeks, but there have been dozens of quakes since November.

Could it be possible that all of this activity is building up to some sort of a really big event?

According to the Southern California Earthquake Data Center, there have been 321 earthquakes in the San Francisco area in the last 7 days.  The following is a screenshot…

Needless to say, this isn’t normal.

The swarm of earthquakes that hit San Ramon on Monday was centered on one of the main branches of the San Andreas Fault System…

Still, Monday’s noticeable swarm broke out right on the Calaveras Fault, a main branch of the San Andreas – the monstrous 800-mile-long fault spanning from Southern California through the Bay Area and into the Pacific.

The Calaveras splits off from the main fault line near Hollister in central California and runs parallel to it through the East Bay region.

Scientists with USGS have warned that one of these faults or other major branches nearby could soon reach their anticipated breaking point and rupture right in the heart of California.

And it isn’t just northern California that has been shaking lately.

A couple of weeks ago, a magnitude 4.9 earthquake rocked Southern California…

A 4.9-magnitude earthquake and several aftershocks rattled Southern California on Monday night, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The first and largest quake happened approximately five miles northeast of Indio Hills, which is in the Palm Desert region of Riverside County, at around 5:57 p.m., the USGS reported. It occurred at a geological depth of nearly two miles. The preliminary magnitude of the earthquake was first reported as 5.1 before it was downgraded to 4.6 and then adjusted to 4.9 by USGS officials.

Scientists keep telling us that it is just a matter of time before the San Andreas Fault System “rips wide open”.

This is something that I have written about extensively over the years.

These latest quakes are a major league wake up call.

Unfortunately, most people living in California have learned to tune out such warnings.

Interestingly, the earthquake swarm that shook San Ramon on Monday morning occurred just after the Sun released “a relentless barrage of powerful solar flares”…

The sun has erupted in a relentless barrage of powerful solar flares over the past 24 hours, firing off at least 18 M-class flares and three X-class flares, including an X8.3 eruption — the strongest solar flare of 2026 so far. Solar flares are ranked by strength from A, B and C up to M and X, with each letter representing a tenfold increase in energy — meaning X-class flares are the most powerful explosions the sun can produce

The culprit is sunspot region 4366, a volatile active region that has grown rapidly in just a few days. The flurry of activity began late Feb. 1 and has continued into Feb. 2, with multiple M-class and X-class flares erupting in quick succession. The prolific region appears to be far from finished. Spaceweather.com described the region as a “solar flare factory”, warning that its rapid growth and magnetic complexity make further eruptions highly likely.

Many scientists believe that we tend to see more seismic activity when the Sun is highly active.

Needless to say, the Sun has been extremely active lately.

And we are being warned that Sunspot AR4366 will soon be directly facing our planet…

It’s also possible that more eruptions are still to come. Sunspot AR4366 remains highly active and continues to rotate into an Earth-facing position, raising the chance that future eruptions could launch CMEs more directly toward our planet. NOAA forecasters say they expect more exciting space weather activity from this region in the coming days.

Sunspot AR4366 is absolutely massive, and I think that we should all be watching it very closely.

We live at a time when the giant ball of fire that we revolve around is becoming increasingly unstable.

We also live at a time when the ground under our feet is becoming increasingly unstable.

Unfortunately, I am entirely convinced that what we have experienced so far is just the tip of the iceberg.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 16:20

Supreme Court Allows New California Congressional Map That Favors Democrats

Supreme Court Allows New California Congressional Map That Favors Democrats

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Supreme Court on Feb. 4 allowed California to use its newly redrawn congressional map in the upcoming midterm elections over the objections of Republicans who filed to block it.

The decision in Tangipa v. Newsom came in an unsigned order. No justices dissented. The court did not explain its ruling.

California Republicans had filed an emergency application with the court on Jan. 20, asking the justices to block the map that gives Democrats an electoral advantage.

The new ruling comes after the court on Dec. 4, 2025, upheld a redrawn election map that aimed to increase Republican representation in Texas’s U.S. House delegation.

Republicans had argued that the new California map, which voters authorized in November 2025 by approving Proposition 50, constituted unlawful racial gerrymandering that the federal Voting Rights Act prohibits.

Gerrymandering is the manipulation of electoral district boundaries to favor a particular party or constituency.

The Supreme Court has previously ruled that race-based gerrymandering violates the U.S. Constitution but that redrawing district boundaries to boost partisan fortunes passes constitutional muster.

In a 2–1 ruling delivered on Jan. 14, a three-judge federal panel in California rejected GOP arguments, describing the referendum as a proportional and legal reaction to Republicans undertaking redistricting efforts in Texas.

“We find that Challengers have failed to show that racial gerrymandering occurred, and we conclude that there is no basis for issuing a preliminary injunction,” the court said in its written opinion.

The judges said California’s move was a reaction to similar moves undertaken in Texas that President Donald Trump encouraged.

“The stated goal of [the legislation authorizing the referendum] was to counter the actions of Texas and pick up an additional five Democratic seats,” the court wrote.

“The new map drawn by a private consultant, paid for by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and incorporated into Proposition 50, met that goal exactly.”

Republicans currently hold a thin, 218–214 majority over Democrats in the U.S. House. There are 435 seats in the House, but three are currently vacant.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 15:45

Lawsuit Challenges Trump's 'Gold Card' Visa Program

Lawsuit Challenges Trump's 'Gold Card' Visa Program

Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times,

A national university faculty group is suing to shut down President Donald Trump’s “Gold Card” visa, arguing that the new, expedited pathway to permanent residency for wealthy foreigners is unlawful.

In a lawsuit filed Feb. 3 in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, the American Association of University Professors (AAUP) and several foreign professionals say the program benefits rich applicants at the expense of “qualified, merit-based” candidates, such as scientists, engineers, and doctors.

The Trump Gold Card program, which formally went live on Dec. 10, 2025, was created by executive order and described by the president as a “green card on steroids.” Individual applicants must pay a nonrefundable $15,000 processing fee to enter the pipeline and, after clearing background checks, make a $1 million “gift” to the government.

Employers can apply for a corporate Gold Card for workers by paying the same $15,000 fee plus a $2 million contribution per employee.

The Gold Card does not have its own visa category. Instead, Trump’s executive order directs agencies to use existing EB-1 “extraordinary ability” and EB-2 “exceptional ability” green card categories and to treat the required payments as evidence that the applicant will substantially benefit the United States.

Both EB-1 and EB-2 categories fall under the employment-based immigration system, which is capped at 140,000 visas annually. According to the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), EB-1 and EB-2 visas account for about 80,000 of those slots.

Because those green cards are limited and already in high demand, the AAUP lawsuit says, opening a fast lane for Gold Card applicants will increase wait times for existing applicants, forcing them to remain longer on temporary visas and disrupting the work they do.

“Rather than reserving those visas for the world’s best and brightest, the Gold Card program converts the visas into revenue-generating commodities sold to those who can pay $1 million or more,” the complaint states.

The plaintiffs argue that the Gold Card conflicts with the Immigration and Nationality Act’s merit-focused criteria for EB-1 and EB-2 visas. They also contend that, at the very least, the administration violated procedural law by skipping the customary notice-and-comment rulemaking before rolling out the program.

Among the individual plaintiffs are a Colombian electronic engineer, a Taiwanese cancer biologist, and a Mexican biomedical scientist. All are seeking EB-1 or EB-2 green cards and say the Gold Card will push them further back in an already backlogged system.

The lawsuit asks the court to declare the Gold Card unlawful and halt its continued operation. It names the U.S. Departments of Homeland Security, Commerce, and State, the USCIS, and officials involved in creating and administering the program as defendants.

The agencies did not respond to requests for comment.

While opponents of the Gold Card warn that it will drive away talent, Trump has described the program as a way for companies to retain highly skilled graduates from elite American colleges who might otherwise have to leave the country after finishing their studies.

“They graduate from the top schools,” Trump said last December. “These people want to hire them. Now you’re able to buy a card and you’re able to keep people in the country.”

According to the president, more than $1.3 billion from Gold Cards was generated in the program’s first week.

The administration is also developing a Trump “Platinum Card,” which would require a $5 million payment and allow foreign nationals to spend up to 270 days a year in the United States without being subject to U.S. taxes on income earned abroad. That program has not yet launched but is already accepting sign-ups for a waiting list.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 15:20

Ryan Routh Sentenced To Life Behind Bars For Trump Assassination Attempt

Ryan Routh Sentenced To Life Behind Bars For Trump Assassination Attempt

Update (Wednesday):

U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon sentenced Ryan Routh to life in prison for attempting to assassinate President Trump during the 2024 presidential election cycle, according to AP News.

Federal prosecutors said Routh spent months planning the attack, showed willingness to kill anyone who interfered, and expressed zero remorse during the trial. They asked the judge to impose a life sentence on Routh to "send a message that seeking to assassinate a Presidential candidate will result in the most severe punishment."

Prosecutors said that Routh "plotted painstakingly to kill President Trump, and took significant steps toward making that happen, culminating on September 15, 2024 at the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, when he sat in a sniper hide that he had carefully constructed, chambered a round in the military-grade SKS rifle that he possessed illegally, and pointed it toward President Trump and his protective detail."

Routh's assassination plot of the president was only thwarted, prosecutors said, "by a Secret Service agent who noticed and disrupted Routh before Routh could fire a shot."

Judge Cannon previously rejected Routh's motion for her recusal when he was charged in the fall of 2024.

"Mr. Trump is the current Republican candidate for President in next month's election," Routh's lawyers wrote to Cannon in October 2024.

"On the campaign trail, he has repeatedly praised Your Honor for her rulings in his case. As the alleged victim here, he has a significant stake in the outcome of this case too. Were he to become President in the future, he would have authority to nominate Your Honor to a federal judgeship on a higher court were a vacancy to arise," they wrote.

Routh, who represented himself during the trial, was assigned a court-appointed attorney ahead of the sentencing hearing.

During closing arguments, Routh told the court in a rambling statement that no crime occurred because he never fired a shot.

After two hours of deliberation, the jury found him guilty on all five counts, including federal gun charges and assaulting a Secret Service agent.

A psychiatric evaluation concluded Routh was competent enough to stand trial.

*  *    * 

Authored by Jackson Richman via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge is set to sentence Ryan Routh on Feb. 4 for attempting to assassinate President Donald Trump. Prosecutors are seeking a life sentence while the defense is arguing for leniency.

The sentencing hearing is scheduled just months after Routh, 59, attempted to stab himself in U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon’s courtroom following a guilty verdict on multiple counts. Federal prosecutors said in a court filing that a life sentence was appropriate given what they described as months of deliberate planning and a clear intent to kill.

“He took steps over the course of months to assassinate a major presidential candidate, demonstrated the will to kill anybody in the way, and has since expressed neither regret nor remorse to his victims,” prosecutors wrote in a sentencing memorandum.

Defense attorneys objected to prosecutors’ attempt to enhance the sentencing by alleging Routh’s actions involved a terrorism element. Routh’s actions did not meet the legal definition of terrorism, the defense said.

During the trial, Routh attempted to portray himself as gentle and nonviolent, a characterization prosecutors sharply disputed, arguing that his planning showed clear intent to kill Trump.

The prosecution argued in a memo that Routh, “for all his protestations of peacefulness, is a dangerous man, at least when it comes to individuals who stand in his way.”

Dr. Heather Holmes wrote a report for the defense, which is unavailable to the public, that Routh suffers from Narcissistic Personality Disorder and Bipolar II. However, prosecutors argued that these diagnoses do not provide a basis to claim incompetence, insanity, or diminished capacity. Additionally, the disorders are not corroborated by the defendant’s prior medical or psychiatric records, they said.

The report should not be a justification for sentencing Routh to anything less than life in prison, the prosecution added.

The defense submitted character letters to Cannon.

One was from Darya Trotsenko, a citizen of Ukraine, where Routh served during the Eastern European country’s war with Russia.

She wrote that Routh “possessed a remarkable openness and kindness that drew people to him, and he was deeply respected and liked by everyone.”

Trotsenko also wrote that Routh’s “actions in Ukraine demonstrated a peaceful and constructive character.”

“I believe in justice, but I also believe in compassion and in judging a person by their whole life. Ryan has already shown, through his actions, that he is an asset to his community, not a threat,” she added.

Additionally, Trotsenko said that Routh should eventually be released from prison to be with his family and a contributing member of society.

Routh was convicted of attempted assassination of a major presidential candidate, possessing a firearm in furtherance of a crime of violence, assaulting a federal officer, being a felon in possession of a firearm and ammunition, and possession of a firearm with an obliterated serial number.

Routh targeted Trump on Sept. 15, 2024, while the then-Republican presidential nominee was golfing at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida. The attack occurred just months after a separate assassination attempt against Trump at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.

Trial evidence showed that Routh concealed himself outside the golf course perimeter, aiming an AK-style rifle through a hole in the fence. He was spotted by then-U.S. Secret Service Special Agent Robert Fercano, who was patrolling one hole ahead of Trump. At the time, Trump was golfing with longtime friend Steve Witkoff, now the U.S. special envoy to the Middle East.

Fearing for his own safety and that of the former president, Fercano fired a shot at Routh, who fled the scene and drove away. Routh was arrested shortly after on a nearby highway.

During the trial, a witness testified that he contacted law enforcement after Routh dropped off a box at his home in April, following a visit to the area near the golf course. Inside the box was a handwritten letter from Routh that read, in part, “Dear World, This was the assassination attempt on Donald Trump but I am so sorry I failed you. I tried my best and gave it all the gumption I could muster. It is up to you now to finish the job.”

The letter also offered $150,000 to anyone who could kill Trump.

Investigators searching Routh’s vehicle recovered multiple cell phones, a list of international flights scheduled for the afternoon and evening of the attack, and directions to Miami International Airport.

Cell phone records showed that between Aug. 18 and Sept. 15, Routh’s devices repeatedly connected to cell towers near Trump International Golf Club and Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s estate.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 13:55

Nuclear Nuggets From Goldman Offers Snapshot Of Reactor Space, Uranium Prices, Cameco

Nuclear Nuggets From Goldman Offers Snapshot Of Reactor Space, Uranium Prices, Cameco

Our Dec. 23 note, "Why the Price of Uranium Is About to Soar," was published just days before uranium futures surged 25% to above $100 per pound. Prices have since corrected about 10% to around $91 per pound, but the broader thesis remains intact: up and to the right.

As we first outlined to readers since December 2020 (read here), uranium has emerged as the next gold. In an era of data centers and a rush to power up America with new nuclear reactors and to build next-generation grids capable of supporting explosive data-center growth and broader electrification trends, the world faces a massive uranium supply deficit that is only set to worsen by the end of the decade.

Drawing on Goldman's Global Reactor Tracker, we provide readers with the latest developments, data points, and progress across North America, Europe, and Asia that only reinforce our bullish thesis on Cameco Corp and peers. We expect this to remain a solid bet on the industry this decade. Just remember, the CCJ call was made in December 2020 at around $11 per share.

Analysts led by Brian Lee have done all the hard work in capturing a snapshot of the uranium industry.

Here are the most critical developments happening across the space:

North America

1/16/26 - United States - NASA and the DOE have renewed their commitment through an MoU to develop a fission power source for the Moon and future Mars missions. This initiative, driven by an Executive Order, prioritizes deploying a lunar surface reactor by 2030 to provide safe, efficient, and continuous electrical power for sustained lunar missions, independent of sunlight or temperature. This aligns with NASA's 2025 Integrated Lunar Power Strategy, which considers nuclear fission as a primary power generation technology.

1/29/2026 - Canada - Saskatchewan's government and SaskPower are evaluating large nuclear reactor technologies alongside existing SMR plans. This dual strategy aims for energy security and future electricity demand, utilizing Saskatchewan's uranium. GE Hitachi's BWRX-300 SMR is planned for mid-2030s deployment near Estevan, while Westinghouse's AP1000 and AP300 SMRs are also being explored. Large reactors could take 15-20 years to become operational.

1/29/2026 - Canada - Westinghouse and Tetra Tech Canada are collaborating to deploy Westinghouse's AP1000 and AP300 reactors in Ontario. This partnership supports Ontario's exploration of new nuclear generation at the Wesleyville site, where Ontario Power Generation (OPG) is evaluating various reactor technologies. The AP300 SMR aims for design certification by 2027 and operation by 2033.

Europe

1/19/26 - Slovakia- Slovakia and the USA have signed an Intergovernmental Agreement to advance Slovakia's nuclear power program. This includes a new 1,200 MWe unit, possibly a Westinghouse reactor, at the Bohunice Nuclear Power Plant, targeting 2040-2041 operation. This follows a feasibility study supporting SMRs in Slovakia by 2035.

1/23/2026 - Denmark - Denmark is studying new nuclear technologies, including SMRs, to assess their potential and risks. This aims to inform a possible lifting of its 1985 nuclear power ban, driven by energy security and growing SMR interest. The analysis, covering economic viability and regulatory needs, is due Q2 2026 and is supported by a Nuclear Power Alliance.

Asia and other

1/2/2026 - South Korea - South Korea's Nuclear Safety and Security Commission has issued an operating license for Saeul Nuclear Power Plant unit 3, an APR1400 reactor, with commercial operation targeted for January after fuel loading and testing. This unit, featuring enhanced safety measures and contributing 1.7% of Korea's total power, marks a significant step following the reversal of the country's nuclear phase-out policy.

1/2/2026 - Russia - The first VVER-TOI power unit at Russia's Kursk II nuclear power plant was connected to the grid on Dec 31, reaching an initial capacity of 240MW, with a full capacity of 1,250MW. This new unit, is part of a project to replace the older RBMK-1000 reactors at the existing Kursk plant, with all four new units targeted for operation by 2034 (here).

1/5/2026 - China - Unit 2 of China's Zhangzhou nuclear power plant, a Hualong One reactor, has entered commercial operation, completing the first phase of the project and bringing China Nuclear Power Corporation's total operating units to 27. This plant, once fully completed with six units, is expected to provide over 60 billion kilowatt-hours of clean energy annually, significantly contributing to China's energy structure and "dual carbon" goal (here).

1/6/2026 - Russia - Russia's Bilibino Nuclear Power Plant permanently shut down its last unit on December 30 after 51 years, replaced by the 70 MW Akademik Lomonosov floating nuclear power plant. This marks Rosenergoatom's first complete plant shutdown, with unique decommissioning challenges in the Arctic, aiming for full rehabilitation by 2055 (here).

1/15/2026 - Russia - Russia has approved a five-year life extension for Leningrad-4, an RBMK-1000 reactor, allowing it to operate for a total of 50 years until 2031 after comprehensive modernization and safety checks. This extension ensures continued electricity supply for northwest Russia and the production of medical isotopes, complementing the ongoing replacement of older RBMK units with new VVER-1200 reactors at the site.

1/16/2026 - China - China has commenced construction on Unit 1 of the Xuwei nuclear power project, a "world's first dual-coupling demonstration" combining Hualong One PWRs with a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor to provide both electricity and industrial heating. This innovative project is projected to annually supply 32.5 million tonnes of industrial steam and over 11.5 billion kWh of electricity, significantly reducing coal consumption and carbon emissions.

1/19/2026 - Japan - Tepco postponed the scheduled January 20 restart of unit 6 at its Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant. The delay occurred after a safety alarm failed to sound during a control rod withdrawal test on January 17. Tepco identified and corrected an error in the alarm's settings by January 18, confirming its proper function. This Advanced Boiling Water Reactor had been offline since the Fukushima Daiichi accident (here).

1/19/2026 - Russia - Rosatom Director expects four foreign nuclear units to start in 2026: Bangladesh (Rooppur), Turkey (Akkuyu), and two in China. Rosatom exceeded 2025 goals despite sanctions, advancing Hungary's Paks II and Turkey's Akkuyu projects. He discussed yuan financing, 100-year unit operation, advanced nuclear tech, and the Northern Sea Route. Zaporizhzhia NPP Unit 1 was licensed in 2025, with generation conditional.

1/26/2026 - South Korea - South Korea confirmed plans for two new large nuclear reactors and 700 MW of SMR capacity by 2038, as part of its 11th Basic Plan. The strategy prioritizes nuclear and renewables to reduce carbon emissions, projecting increased electricity demand and a rise in carbon-free energy to 70% by 2038. KHNP will launch a bidding process for host cities by 2027, targeting reactor completion by 2037-2038.

1/26/2026 - Argentina - Argentina's CNEA plans to reactivate its Neuquén Heavy Water Industrial Plant (PIAP), mothballed since 2017. Once the world's largest facility, it will undergo maintenance and refurbishment to restart production, aiming for revenue generation and exports. A May 2025 MoU with Candu Energy supports the restart and long-term heavy water acquisition, with Argentina's plants needing 485 tonnes and surplus available for export.

1/19/2026 - Russia - Russia's Roscosmos has contracted NPO Lavochkin to develop a lunar nuclear power station by 2036, requiring three missions (2033-2035). This station will power Russia's lunar program and the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), a joint Russia-China initiative also involving Rosatom and the Kurchatov Institute.

SMR announcement tracker

1/6/2026 - Bulgaria - Blue Bird Energy and Synthos Green Energy formed a joint venture to deploy up to six GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy BWRX-300 small modular reactors (SMRs) in Bulgaria, aiming to provide affordable, reliable energy. This expands Synthos Green Energy's European SMR strategy, which includes plans for 24 BWRX-300 units in Poland.

1/8/2026 - United States - Terrestrial Energy and Oklo have signed agreements with the US Department of Energy for pilot projects under the Advanced Reactor Pilot Program. Terrestrial Energy will develop a pilot Integral Molten Salt Reactor (IMSR) to expedite commercialization of its 4th generation technology, while Oklo will build a radioisotope pilot plant for medical and research isotopes. These agreements, leveraging Other Transaction Authority, aim to fast-track advanced reactor innovation and achieve criticality by July 2026.

1/8/2026 - China - China's ACP100 (Linglong One) SMR at the Changjiang site successfully completed its non-nuclear turbine test run on December 23. This 125 MWe SMR, developed by CNNC, is the world's first commercial land-based SMR to reach this milestone, verifying its conventional island systems. Commercial operation is targeted for the first half of 2026.

1/12/2026 - United States - Ameresco and NANO Nuclear signed an MoU to deploy NANO's KRONOS, ZEUS, and LOKI microreactors on US federal and commercial sites, with Ameresco leading EPC. DS Danseok also signed an MoU for NANO microreactors in South Korea. This builds on Ameresco's prior IMSR collaboration.

1/16/2026 - Slovakia - A Project Phoenix study confirmed Slovakia's suitability for SMR deployment, with four sites (Bohunice, Mochovce, Vojany, US Steel Košice) meeting baseline criteria. The next steps involve developing a regulatory framework, detailed site investigations, and public consultation. SMRs could be operational by 2035, enhancing energy security and decarbonization.

1/16/2026 - Uzbekistan - Uzbekistan and Rosatom are progressing on a nuclear power plant project, with first concrete for the SMR anticipated "well before December" 2026, targeting spring pouring. The project initially involved six RITM-200N SMRs (330 MW total), with the first unit critical by late 2029. The plan later expanded to include two large VVER-1000 units and two 55 MW RITM-200N SMRs. Excavation for the first SMR is underway in the Jizzakh region.

1/29/2026 - United States - NextEra Energy plans up to 6 GWe of SMR capacity, primarily for data centers. They are evaluating SMR manufacturers and have identified 6 GW of co-location opportunities at existing or new sites. The Duane Arnold plant will restart by 2029, supported by a Google power purchase agreement. This is part of NextEra's "15 by 35" strategy, aiming for 15-30 GW for data centers by 2035.

Global reactor critical updates

In the month of January, there have been few changes to new reactor construction starts, grid connections, shutdowns, or restarts.

Global reactor construction tracker

The epicenter of the world's nuclear reactor buildouts is China.

Global reactors under construction.

China.

Latest on spot uranium prices:

Spot momentum continues into the new year. Uranium pricing has shown continued strength in the new year, up +21% over the month of January, with spot climbing over $100/lb for the first time in almost two years. Spot market activity was robust with a total of 90 transactions involving 9mn/lbs of uranium. Pricing momentum intensified in the last week of January as Sprott raised funds and accumulated ~2.5mn lbs of uranium. The spot price currently sits at ~$91/lb compared to $82/lb in December.

Term pricing moderate. Term pricing increased in January by $2 to $88/lb, marking its highest level since May 2008. However, term market activity was moderate throughout the month, with one utility finalizing an off-market selection for uranium deliveries starting in 2029. A new utility also entered the market seeking approximately 1.2 million pounds of uranium for delivery in the same year. Additionally, non-U.S. utilities were actively evaluating offers for longer-term uranium and EUP requests.

KAP guidance update. On 2/2/26, KAP provided its 4Q25 operations and trading update, which included 2026 production guidance. The company's 2025 production of 25,839 tonnes uranium (tU) (67.2mn lbs) was in line with guidance of 25,000-26,500 tU. Additionally, KAP provided 2026 guidance of 27,500-29,000 tU (71.5-75.4mn lbs), signaling growth of 9% yoy that is driven by the planned ramp of its JV Budenovskoye, which is fully reserved under offtakes from 2024-2026. Importantly, the midpoint of 2026 guidance is ~5% below its subsoil use contract annual production of 29,697 tU, which was lowered by ~10% from 32,777 tU in August 2025. Additionally, the guidance is dependent on the availability of sulfuric acid, which was a key factor that weighed on production in 2025. We note that KAP could potentially lower its production another ~15% and be within the confines of the +/- 20% threshold provided in its Competent Person's Report.

Color on nuclear stocks:

Nuclear stocks have seen mixed performance over the past three months, with our nuclear coverage averaging a -13% return over the period compared to the S&P which returned 3%. Performance was collectively positive across uranium-levered names (CCJ/UEC), likely in large part owing to the recent rally in spot uranium pricing, while SMR technology players have traded significantly off. With respect to investor positioning, UEC was the only stock in our coverage which saw an increase in short interest, as the stock continues to rally, up 26%/35% over the past 3mo/12mo. Across the remainder of our coverage, short interest decreased across both CCJ and OKLO while SMR saw the largest decrease in short interest.

Cameco

Professional subscribers can read much more from Goldman here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 13:40

Japan Is Normalizing: Risks To The Yen Carry Trade

Japan Is Normalizing: Risks To The Yen Carry Trade

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

“Japan Bond Meltdown Sends Yields to Record High on Fiscal Fears,” read a January 2026 Bloomberg article. Headlines like this, and many others, warn that Japan’s abrupt interest rate increase is an omen of dire trouble. While that may be the case, given decades of economic woes, declining demographics, and extreme levels of outstanding debt, we have an alternative view.

Might the recent sharp rise in Japanese yields simply reflect the normalization of its economy, inflation, and interest rates following decades of stagnation and very aggressive monetary and fiscal policies?

Whether you follow Japan or not, its situation is incredibly important for investors because it is a major provider of global liquidity. Instead of being overly dramatic about the slim chance of a near-term Japanese crisis, we prefer to focus on how Japan normalizes policy after years of artificially suppressed interest rates and how it will impact the yen carry trade.

Japan’s Lost Decades

To help appreciate Japan’s current situation and why some pundits claim that Japan is near the end of its fiscal line, we share the links to prior articles: Japan’s Lost Decades & Are We on Japan’s Path Of Stagnation? The following quotes from the articles summarize Japan’s plight.

Japan’s prolonged stagnation traces back to the collapse of one of the largest asset bubbles in history in the late 1980s. As we explain, enormous real estate and stock market valuations imploded, leaving banks burdened with bad loans and unable to lend effectively. For example: “from 1956 to 1986 land prices in Japan increased by 5000% even though consumer prices only doubled in that time,” and its Nikkei stock index P/E was close to 70 at its peak.

The government chose to support failing banks and extend the economic pain over decades through massive government spending and near-zero interest rate policies rather than take a short-term, deeper contraction.

 They elected the latter, saving their banks and relying on massive government spending to insulate the economy.

This response contributed to a fragile financial system with “zombie” banks, suppressed lending, and a private sector unable to drive robust growth, leading to deflationary pressures and very low economic growth for decades.

Demographics and structural factors have compounded the issue. Japan’s population has been aging and declining, with low birth rates and minimal immigration dampening labor force growth and consumption, making growth harder to achieve. Additionally, long-standing fiscal dominance — where policy focuses on funding government debt and supporting markets — along with weak incentives for productive private investment, have kept economic activity subdued.  

Japan Removes Its Financial Support

Prior to the last few years, Japan experienced decades of economic malaise. The post-WWII economic boom was spectacular, and the echo payback was equally stunning.

A recent uptick in inflation, GDP, and interest rates has allowed Japan to gradually remove the monetary policy crutch that has supported its banks, economy, and financial markets for decades.  This primarily entails the Bank of Japan (BOJ) reducing its balance sheet and letting interest rates gravitate toward normal market levels.  

Some investors watching the sharp increase in interest rates warn that rates are rising because investors are pricing in rising default risks. Others, including us, think this is the normalization process.

The first graph below shows the current benchmark interest rates for Japanese 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year bonds.

The recent increase in interest rates from negative levels is significant. The next graph shows that the inflation rate has recently been much higher than in the pre-pandemic era.

Next, we combine the two graphs to arrive at real (inflation-adjusted) yields. As shown, the 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year real yields are below 1%, albeit well above the -1% real yields that persisted from 2016 to 2022. They are now in line with the pre-financial crisis period.

The takeaway from the three graphs is that Japan has allowed yields to gravitate toward a normal spread relative to the inflation rate. The next graph, courtesy of Bloomberg, provides global context. Inflation expectations are very similar for Japan and the US. However, Japanese yields, despite the recent increase, are about 2% below US Treasury yields.

The charts signal that Japanese interest rates and inflation are moving toward levels more in line with those of other large economies.

Economic Signs Of Normalization

The normalization argument is further supported by a recent spurt in economic activity. The graph below shows Japan’s economy was stagnant for 23 years, ranging from 1997 to 2020. However, economic activity has accelerated in earnest since the second half of 2022.

Furthermore, the Nikkei 225, Japan’s primary stock index, broke to new record highs, finally eclipsing the prior peak seen at the end of 1989.  

Lastly, Japan’s debt, while rising nominally, is falling as a percentage of economic activity. As we share below, its Debt-to-GDP ratio peaked at 2.58x and has since moderated to 2.32x. It is still exceptionally high but trending in the right direction. For context, the US debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 1.21x, which is considered problematic by some economists.

Japan Is In A Pickle

Normalization after years of significant fiscal and monetary stimulus will not be easy.  For example, the public, used to near-zero inflation, is growing uneasy about inflation and unhappy with calls for fiscal austerity. Its policymakers, fiscal and monetary, are being forced to decide between economic growth and inflation.

Policymakers could contain inflation by raising interest rates and implementing fiscal austerity, thereby resulting in yen appreciation. The risk is that they reduce economic growth in the process. Conversely, they could keep rates at current levels and increase fiscal spending, as some politicians want, but risk that inflation keeps increasing.

As if that decision isn’t hard enough, they must also manage interest rates to accommodate the funding of Japan’s excessive outstanding debt. As we noted earlier, Japan has a debt-to-GDP ratio almost twice that of the US. Higher interest rates increase the government’s interest expense. In turn, they must issue more debt to fund existing debt. This is the trap noted by Japan’s bond vigilantes.

However, Japan’s debt situation is not comparable to the US’s. To wit, John Authers of Bloomberg recently reminded us why Japan can maintain higher levels of debt than most other countries. Per his missive, Japan Needn’t Drive An International Crisis:

Another key argument against a crisis is that, despite its huge pile of debt, Japan is stable. It maintains a current account surplus (unlike the US). Also, unlike the US, it has a positive net international investment position, meaning that it holds more foreign assets than foreigners hold assets in Japan:

Further, he argues:

Moreover, fears of an imminent fiscal accident appear overstated. Political constraints may limit aggressive fiscal expansion, the primary deficit has been shrinking, and authorities retain extensive tools to manage yield volatility. Unlike sudden crises driven by foreign capital flight, Japan’s challenge is one of gradual adjustment, not sudden loss of confidence.

Global Liquidity- Yen Carry Trade

As we led the article, we think the most important aspect of Japan’s normalization path is its impact on global liquidity through the yen carry trade. Thus, before discussing tough decisions facing Japan and their potential impacts on the yen carry trade, we share a basic example of how the yen carry trade works.

  • A US-based hedge fund borrows ¥15.3 billion yen ($100 million) at 0.75% for one month.

  • They convert the yen to $100 million and purchase shares of IBM.

  • The return on the trade depends on three components. First, the borrowing cost (0.75%). Second is the change in the yen-dollar exchange rate. Lastly, there is IBM’s price change.

Recently, borrowing costs in Japan have risen but remain well below US rates. Despite higher rates, the yen has depreciated against the dollar, which benefits the carry trade returns and more than offsets the higher interest costs. However, bear in mind that an appreciating yen can easily offset the interest rate differential, making the yen carry trade less favorable. 

If Japan can gradually normalize its interest rate and support its currency with minimal volatility, the yen carry trade can unwind in a market-healthy fashion. But, as we saw in 2024, sudden shocks to the yen can trigger a swift reversal of the carry trade, harming global stock and bond markets.  

Summary

In our opinion, Japan’s rising yields and currency volatility reflect an economic normalization. We do not think Japan is on the verge of fiscal collapse. However, the transition from a monetary- and fiscal-policy-dependent economy to a free-market economy could significantly affect a major source of global market liquidity. Policy decisions that cause sharp, sudden changes in rates and or the yen can have a notable effect on stock and bond markets worldwide.

We witnessed this in August 2024, when the BOJ unexpectedly raised interest rates. As a result, the Nikkei 225 fell by over 12% in one day, and the S&P 500 corrected by 6% over a few days. The BOJ and government seem more aware that their decisions have a significant impact on global markets. We trust they will aim for a smooth normalization process, free of market shocks. But understand that their endeavor to return to a free-market economy entails significant risks for Japanese and global markets

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 13:20

Putin Touts Energy Ties With China, While India Still Dodges Issue Of Russian Oil Ban

Putin Touts Energy Ties With China, While India Still Dodges Issue Of Russian Oil Ban

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a video link call on Wednesday, wherein Putin hailed Russia's energy relationship with China as "strategic" while emphasizing that Beijing has become Moscow's top buyer of oil and gas since the Ukraine 'special military operation' began.

The timing is the most notable aspect, given the call came just two days after Trump announced he would cut tariffs on Indian goods in exchange for New Delhi halting purchases of Russian crude. Trump also said Washington could lift an additional 25% penalty tariff imposed over India's energy cooperation with Moscow.

The curious thing is the lack of confirmation of the oil purchase cutoff from the Indian side. As yet, there's no clear indicator that this key element in the Modi-Trump deal has been ratified. On Wednesday FT reports India hails Donald Trump ‘deal’ but ducks discussing Russian oil ban. The reality remains that there are also technical problems with US crude imports replacing Russian...

"WTI is simply too light to be considered as Urals replacement" for refiners in India following this week’s announcement of a US-India deal on tariffs, June Goh, an analyst at Sparta Commodities said in a note. 

And this is likely why Putin seized the opportunity to tout his energy ties with China. Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov has also reminded the world in a statement to TASS that Russia tops the list in terms of oil and pipe gas supplies to China.

"China continues to hold the first place among our foreign trade partners. Russia is fifth among the countries - trade counterparties of China. The task was set during the talk to take efforts for further development of trade and economic ties, in particular, for example, in the energy sphere. Russia is the top supplier of oil and pipe gas to China," Ushakov said.

Kremlin estimates say China has purchased more than $230 billion worth of Russian energy since the invasion.

Putin himself in the call acknowledged that bilateral trade saw a "slight decline" last year, including a "correction in indicators," but insisted Russia remains "among the leaders in energy supplies to China." He vowed the two will continue to closely coordinate together on a range of issues.

As for the India trade, Reuters reported earlier that Indian refiners have yet to receive instructions to fully stop buying Russian oil and are awaiting a formal government decision. Any official halt would be followed with a transition period, no doubt. Trump's earlier statements may have been too far out front compared to what Modi actually agreed or said yes to.

Hours after Xi and Putin spoke, President Trump also held a call with the Russian leader Wednesday. They last spoke by ‍phone in late November, at which time a conciliatory Trump praised America's "extremely strong" relations with China. Xinhua News Agency was the first revealed the Trump-Xi call.

Trump's own statement on Truth Social followed...

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 13:00

NFL: ICE Will Not Be Present At Super Bowl

NFL: ICE Will Not Be Present At Super Bowl

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

Federal immigration officers will not make an appearance at the Super Bowl this year, NFL Chief Security Officer Cathy Lanier announced at a news conference on Feb. 2.

“There are no planned ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] or immigration enforcement operations that are scheduled around the Super Bowl or any Super Bowl-related events,” Lanier said during the briefing.

The Seattle Seahawks will face the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX on Feb. 8 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, about 45 miles south of San Francisco.

 

The NFL’s announcement differed from an earlier statement made by Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem in October 2025, after Super Bowl officials announced that outspoken anti-ICE performer Bad Bunny had been selected as this year’s halftime headliner.

 

Noem told conservative commentator Benny Johnson on his podcast that ICE officers would be present at the event and “all over that place.”

President Donald Trump has previously criticized the artists selected to headline the Super Bowl halftime show, noting that both Bad Bunny and Green Day have been outspoken critics of him.

“I’m anti-them. I think it’s a terrible choice. All it does is sow hatred. Terrible,” Trump told the New York Post.

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has voiced support for Bad Bunny, who won the Latin Grammy award for Album of the Year on Feb. 1.

“We’re confident it’s going to be a great show,” Goodell said. “He understands the platform that he’s on, and I think it’s going to be exciting and a united moment.”

Bad Bunny arrives at the 68th annual Grammy Awards in Los Angeles on Feb. 1, 2026. Jordan Strauss/Invision/AP

San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie said his priority would be public safety as the city welcomes people from around the world during the Super Bowl.

“Our city teams have been preparing for months,” Lurie posted on Feb. 2 on X.

About 1.3 million visitors are expected to attend the game or related events in the San Francisco Bay Area this weekend, the San Francisco International Airport estimated.

San Francisco police and local law enforcement are focused on protecting the public, including the right to “peaceful expression,” the mayor added.

“We will continue to uphold San Francisco’s longstanding policies that keep local law enforcement focused on keeping our city safe—not on federal immigration enforcement,” Lurie stated.

Even so, the city expects the Super Bowl to attract criminal activity, including human trafficking, according to Lurie.

The San Francisco Police Department and other authorities were conducting targeted operations to prevent exploitation of vulnerable people, he said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 12:40

January US Jobs Report Rescheduled For February 11

January US Jobs Report Rescheduled For February 11

The government reopened after another theatrical two-day shutdown, but that doesn't mean that Friday's payrolls report will come when it is due (after all, it's not like the BLS had 30 days to prepare for it, oh wait, they did). Instead, the January employment report has been rescheduled for Wednesday, Feb. 11, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The data, originally due Feb. 6, was delayed by the partial government shutdown. BLS announced the changes Wednesday, shortly after funding for a number of agencies, including the Labor Department, was restored.

January’s consumer price index report, originally due Feb. 11, is now scheduled for Friday, Feb. 13, the BLS also said.

Other BLS reports that were due this week, including December’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and the Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment release, were also rescheduled.

The partial shutdown ended late Tuesday after President Donald Trump signed into law a funding deal he negotiated with Senate Democrats. The Labor Department, and most other government agencies, are now funded through Sept. 30.

In addition to the usual monthly payrolls and unemployment data, the January jobs report also includes highly anticipated revisions to annual employment. Those are expected to show that job growth was notably weaker in the year through March 2025 than initially reported.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 12:20

Chuck Schumer Claims Voter ID Laws Are The Return Of "Jim Crow"

Chuck Schumer Claims Voter ID Laws Are The Return Of "Jim Crow"

The Democrat Party strategy relies heavily on the tactic of associating everything they don't like with the race-based conflicts of the past, even though they have no knowledge or understanding of basic history.  Their intention is to energize their low-IQ base with hot button rhetoric while blithely dismissing any reasonable debate on otherwise common sense policies.  

Once something is deemed "racist", all constructive discussion goes out the window.  

It is crystal clear that the Democrats are desperate to sabotage voter ID laws at any cost.  Why?  Because they know that illegal immigrants vote despite laws against it, and they also know voter fraud is easier with mail-in ballots devoid of any concrete identification process.  In other words, Democrats know they will never win another election unless they have the option to cheat.  

It's the obvious reason why the progressives are so hostile to bills like the SAVE Act (the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act) which would enforce ID requirements common to most countries in the world.  It's also one of the reasons why NGO funded activists have become so violent in the face of mass deportations of illegals in recent months.  Democrats need to import foreigners, buy them off with subsidies and ensure voting standards remain as loose as possible.  

The only country in which voter ID is labeled "racist" is the US.  Even in the EU, 26 out of 27 member nations have some form of identification law to protect election integrity.  Democrat Senator Chuck Schumer, however, disagrees and claims voter ID is a travesty similar to the days of Jim Crow and segregation.  

Republican midterm chances are riding on the passage of the SAVE Act, not only because of potential fraud by Dems but also because conservatives are increasingly demanding action be taken to secure elections.  A failure on the SAVE Act could mean many MAGA voters stay home on November 3rd. 

Schumer's comparison to "Jim Crow" laws is, of course, absurd, largely because Jim Crow laws had nothing to do with voter identification. 

Furthermore, some Jim Crow laws that dealt with voting were not necessarily wrong:  The requirement for voters to pass a literacy test (in English) would be more than reasonable today.  Many US states also still deny voting rights to convicted criminals guilty of certain felonies, just as they did under Jim Crow. 

If some minority groups are statistically more inclined to commit felonies, then that's their problem and maybe they should stop if they want to vote. 

The GOP has fielded the possibility of a temporary stop on the filibuster, which would allow the passage of the SAVE Act with a simple 51 vote majority rather than 60 votes.  This is a hotly debated "nuclear option", but it might be the only chance to get comprehensive vote ID laws in place.  Many Republican officials and the Trump Adminstration warn that another chance may never come again.  

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 12:20

No Global Recession In 2026, But Period Of Poor Growth Continues

No Global Recession In 2026, But Period Of Poor Growth Continues

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The IMF estimates for 2026 show no signs of recession. However, the global economy remains in a period of poor growth, high debt, persistent inflation and low productivity.

There may not be a recession, but citizens feel poorer as net real wages decline in most economies, remaining below pre-pandemic levels. Why? Because in most developed economies, GDP growth is bloated by government spending, which means high debt, followed by rising taxes that hurt investment and productivity.

The IMF has had to revise its United States estimates to more than double what they expected in early 2025, while Argentina clearly outperforms both the global and regional averages.

Global GDP growth is projected at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, slightly above the October 2025 projections and broadly in line with 2025 levels.

US outperforms advanced economies

The positive surprise is the United States. Advanced economies are expected to grow by about 1.8% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027 thanks to higher US figures, while emerging markets and developing economies reach around 4.2% and 4.1%, respectively, despite a slowdown in China.

The IMF calls this “resilient growth” after a year of warning about risks. This is surprising, because many analysts point out that we should be worried when the IMF starts giving bullish messages.

Despite the ironic comments, the IMF does warn about the poor levels of economic development in the leading economies.

The main drivers of economic strength come from AI‑related investment, accommodative financial conditions and private sector flexibility, which offset the negative impact of geopolitical risk and trade negotiations.

The US will be the only G7 economy escaping stagnation in 2025-2027

The Fund was clearly wrong about its estimates for the US economy published last year.

It now projects US growth at 2.4% in 2026, another relevant upward revision from its October 2025 forecast, considering stronger‑than‑expected 2025 data and a powerful impulse from AI‑related capital spending (data centres, chips, digital infrastructure).

For 2027, US growth is expected to moderate to about 2.0%, still above the advanced‑economy average.

The US will be the only G7 economy escaping stagnation in 2025-2027 and outperforming all its major peers with lower immigration, lower taxes and a reduction in government spending, while the major peers, Germany, Japan, France, UK and Canada, continue to disguise the private sector recession with more public spending and rising immigration.

The IMF has not admitted its mistake in assuming stagnation and elevated inflation due to tariffs and prefers to explain the massive upgrades justifying them on lower policy rates, ongoing fiscal support, and high-tech investment.

It is not important. The reality is that the US has proven wrong all the fearmongers and doom predictors and has turned into one of the main drivers of global demand in this forecast round.

Argentina: growth above global and regional averages

The IMF expects Argentina to grow by around 4% in both 2026 and 2027, clearly above the 3.3% world pace and significantly ahead of Latin America’s projected 2.2% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027.

This comes after an estimated 4.5% expansion in 2025, following a 1.3% contraction in 2024. The International Monetary Fund explicitly links this impressive trajectory to the policies of President Milei and recent macro‑stabilisation efforts.

Argentina moves from chronic underperformer to clear outperformer in the IMF’s baseline

Argentina moves from chronic underperformer to clear outperformer in the IMF’s baseline, especially with a weak outlook for Mexico and Brazil.

Supply-side policies, private sector focus and abandoning interventionism in energy are among the factors that put a faster‑growing US and Argentina as the “pockets of strength” that allow global growth to stay around 3.3% despite the euro area and LatAm stagnation.

Low growth in Europe

For the euro area, the IMF shows moderate but gradually improving growth. However, most of it comes from Germany’s increasing debt.

Real GDP is projected to expand by 1.3% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, a slight upward revision versus the October 2025 outlook and consistent with the ECB’s own projections.

However, we cannot forget that this disastrous economic growth comes in the middle of the Next Generation EU stimulus plan and with rate cuts.

Germany is expected to recover from near‑stagnation towards 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027 only due to a more than debatable public spending and indebtedness programme.

France is expected to show no real growth by about 1.0% and 1.2%, driven by government spending.

The IMF’s message is that, compared with the United States, the euro area remains a low‑growth region, constrained by weak productivity and excessive regulation and taxes.

For the United Kingdom, the Fund keeps an optimistic forecast at 1.3% growth in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. It is said that, after the US, the UK and Canada are the fastest‑growing G7 economies.

This reminds us that net zero, high taxes and big government are the recipe for stagnation.

Canada is projected to expand by just 1.4% per year in 2026 and 2027. Japan will only show 0.7% growth in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027, according to the IMF, despite years of government spending on so-called stimulus.

In Asia, the IMF focuses its attention on the Chinese slowdown, offset by the strength in India.

China is projected to grow by 4.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027, slower than its 5% growth in 2025. However, it is still one of the main engines of global expansion, despite the ongoing challenges facing the real estate sector.

India remains the fastest‑growing large economy in the IMF’s outlook, with growth around the 6% range in both 2026 and 2027, driven by domestic demand. India is, according to the IMF, the high beta growth story in Asia.

The IMF should recover economic sanity recommendations and remind governments that supply-side and market-oriented economies focused on strengthening the private sector are the drivers that the global economy requires, and that constant public sector expansion hinders growth and creates financial weakness.

We may not have a recession, but weakness in developed and emerging economies is unjustified, and the main culprit is government interventionism.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 12:00

LGBT Activist Judge Faces Felony Charges For Wrongfully Detaining A Defense Attorney

LGBT Activist Judge Faces Felony Charges For Wrongfully Detaining A Defense Attorney

A Texas LGBT judge with a history of clashing with authorities over her activism has been arrested and charged after she allegedly handcuffed and held a defense attorney captive in her jury box for the crime of arguing for the right to confer with her client during a probation hearing.    

Bexar County Judge Rosie Speedlin Gonzalez was indicted last week on a felony charge of unlawful restraint by a judicial officer and misdemeanor official oppression.  The controversial judge was arrested for the 2024 incident, during which she and defense attorney Elizabeth Russell clashed in the courtroom. 

Gonzalez has had run-ins with the law before.  In 2022 she was was fined for bringing a loaded rainbow-painted gun through San Antonio International airport in her carry-on luggage.  In 2019 shortly after she took the bench as the "first openly gay judge in Bexar County", Gonzalez was sanctioned for pasting her courtroom, office and robes with gay pride flags in violation of the Texas Code of Judicial Conduct.  In 2023 the sanctions were lifted by a three judge panel.

Former staff members of the court report that the LGBT judge created a "hostile work environment".  Multiple former workers/partners with the Reflejo Court program accused Gonzales of increasingly erratic and aggressive behavior, primarily toward defendants/litigants in the courtroom.  Others accused her of being "unstable" and prone to violent outbursts.

The judge is, however, considered a favorite of local prosecutors.

The incident and arrest once again bring into question the mental and emotional stability of woke activists in positions of legal and political authority.  Recent peer-reviewed studies indicate a link between leftist extremism and narcissism/psychopathy. 

Researchers suggest that individuals with dark personalities - such as high narcissistic and psychopathic traits - are attracted to certain forms of political and social activism which they can use as a vehicle to satisfy their own ego-focused needs instead of actually aiming at "social justice and equality."  In other words, they use activism as a shield from scrutiny when engaged in otherwise destructive behaviors. 

Allowing such volatile and biased people into positions of power in the name of "equity" is becoming a detrimental problem in American society.  Clearing activists out of the military and federal government is already having noticeable benefits over the previously unhinged era of the Biden Administration.  Removing them from the legal system and the public school system will be vital for the future.     

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 11:40

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