Zero Hedge

UBS Discusses Next Maritime Chokepoint Investors Should Watch

UBS Discusses Next Maritime Chokepoint Investors Should Watch

A lot of attention has centered on the Strait of Hormuz since the waterway was effectively shut not only by the IRGC drone threat, but mostly because maritime insurers are withdrawing war-risk coverage across the region. Our focus now shifts to the other critical maritime chokepoints. If Washington can pressure Iranian oil flows and, by extension, curb China's cheap Gulf crude flows, then the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea also emerge as potential flashpoints that traders can no longer afford to ignore.

For more color on which critical maritime chokepoints and geopolitical flashpoints investors should watch next, Bilahari Kausikan, former Permanent Secretary of Singapore's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, spoke with UBS's Aditi Samajpati at the 14th UBS OneASEAN Summit in Singapore to discuss the issue earlier on Thursday.

Kausikan told Samajpati that China claims about 80% of the South China Sea, but other surrounding countries reject those claims, and none of the disputes are likely to be resolved in the near term. He described the situation in the highly disputed waterway as a "strategic stalemate," not an immediate crisis, because China is unlikely to openly block trade or challenge freedom of navigation if doing so risks war with the U.S.

"Obviously, the South China Sea is another point of vulnerability. There are multiple disputes, and China claims about 80% of the South China Sea, which is not accepted by the surrounding states," he said.

"But I think overall the situation in the South China Sea - by the way, none of these disputes are going to be resolved - but I think overall it is not ideal, but not dire," Kausikan said.

He continued, "It's a strategic stalemate. On the other hand, the Chinese cannot stop the US and other powers from operating in the South China Sea, without risking war."

Kausikan pointed out that the presence of the U.S. Navy should be viewed as a stabilizing force that preserves trade flows and prevents China from turning its claims into uncontested control.

Regarding U.S. pressure on Venezuela and Iran, Kausikan said it is unclear whether Washington's goal is specifically to squeeze China's crude imports, but it could have that effect, since both countries are critical, cheap crude suppliers to China.

At the same time, he said Trump's willingness to provide naval escort to commercial traffic through Hormuz suggests the U.S. is not trying to completely choke off China, but rather to create leverage.

For Asia as a whole, Kausikan said energy stability should be a major issue across the region. He said ASEAN's best path toward greater strategic autonomy is deeper energy integration, especially through a shared regional grid that could combine nuclear, hydro, and other power sources.

To sum up, China and the rest of Asia received a giant wake-up call this week as cheap crude and LNG flows from the Gulf were curtailed. All of this is happening ahead of President Trump's trip to China later this month.

We think readers should keep a close eye on other maritime chokepoints worldwide.

Spillover risks from the Middle East conflict are building. The question now is: where is the next powder keg to go off? 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 15:31

The Passive Aggressive Market: Bogle's Warning Came True

The Passive Aggressive Market: Bogle's Warning Came True

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via realinvestmentadvice.com,

Since the pandemic, the line between passive investing and aggressive speculation has blurred. The current bout of speculative fervor extends beyond financial markets. For instance, we see the same impulse in the explosion of sports betting and the surge in event-betting sites like Kalshi and Polymarket.

In the investment arena, margin debt is at record highs (as shown below), and zero-day-to-expiry (0DTE) stock options now account for approximately 50 percent of all options volume. Furthermore, the number of leveraged ETFs and their trading volumes have risen sharply. To wit, we share a quote from The Kobeissi Letter:

There are now a record 108 long and 31 short tech-related leveraged ETFs, 139 in total. This is 3 TIMES more than the 2nd largest sector, financials, with 47 total funds. By comparison, Consumer Discretionary has 44 ETFs, while Communication Services has 34 ETFs. In other words, tech has more leveraged ETFs than the next 3 sectors COMBINED.

While not as easy to quantify as margin debt or sports betting, this aggressive speculative behavior is showing up in passive securities. It is most visible, for instance, in the fierce rotations between sector and factor ETFs.

In this article, we explore how the speculative environment and aggressive trading in passive ETFs are playing out.  We also examine how to identify and capitalize on sector and factor rotations, turning passive investors’ aggressive behavior into an opportunity.

Passive Investment Strategy Timeline

In 1952, Harry Markowitz and his Modern Portfolio Theory laid the groundwork for passive strategies. His thesis is that diversification across a broad market portfolio maximizes returns for a given level of risk. He argued for what has since been termed indexing.

John Bogle is known as the “father of indexing.” In 1976, he launched the First Index Investment Trust at Vanguard. His fund, tracking the S&P 500, was the first index mutual fund available to retail investors. The fund was mocked by competitors as “Bogle’s Folly.” Today, Vanguard manages over $12 trillion in assets, a testament to the power of Bogle’s low-cost, buy-and-hold passive investing philosophy. Ironically, Bogle warned that ETFs’ intraday liquidity would tempt investors into the active trading behavior he had spent his career arguing against.

In 1993, the SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY) became the first ETF available to US investors, enabling intraday trading in passive indexing securities.

Passive investment strategies and associated securities were designed to bring discipline and longer-term strategic thinking to investors. Instead of actively buying and selling individual stocks to beat the market, passive strategies are comfortable matching market returns.

Bogle’s Warning

Despite the compelling long-term case for passive investing, something has changed in how investors actually use these instruments. As Bogle warned, ETFs would lead passive investors to become more active. And indeed, that is what has happened.

Over the past few years, for example, we have seen sharp divergences in the returns between various broad-market indexes, sector ETFs, and factor ETFs. Investors are not buying broad market ETFs and holding them. Instead, it is becoming increasingly popular to rotate aggressively between index ETFs (S&P, Nasdaq, Dow), sector ETFs (technology, staples, financials), and factor ETFs (momentum, value, market cap) in response to short-term market narratives. This is active management despite the use of passive securities.

Another example is leveraged ETFs. These products reset daily, eroding returns over time and making them unsuitable for anything but short-term active trading strategies. Eroding returns are called volatility decay and are an SEC-mandated warning in every leveraged ETF prospectus, as we share from the Direxion ETF prospectus below:

If a Fund’s shares are held for a period other than a calendar month, the Fund’s performance is likely to deviate from the multiple of the underlying exchange-traded fund performance for the period the Fund is held. This deviation will increase with higher underlying volatility and longer holding periods

The explosive growth of leverage ETFs, as we noted in the opening, is evidence of short-term speculative behavior inside the passive universe.

Lastly, there is a sharp increase in the number of thematic ETFs. ETFs tied to themes like artificial intelligence, clean energy, and precious metals attract massive inflows when a narrative is hot. Fund outflows are equally powerful when the narrative fades.  This is momentum-chasing dressed in passive clothing.

Many investors who describe themselves as passive would, if they examine their transaction history honestly, likely find behavior that looks a lot more like active trading.

Rotation Analysis

Understanding that investors are using passive instruments to trade aggressively across sectors and factors is one thing. Profiting from it is another. For our part, we use technical analysis on our SimpleVisor website to identify when these rotations begin, accelerate, end, and reverse.

We introduced the value of rotation analysis and trading in 2023 with our article: Relative Rotation- Unlocking The Hidden Potential. The most compelling argument for rotation analysis comes from the following graph in the article, which compares the relative performances of VYM and MGK to the S&P 500 (SPY). The takeaway from the graph is that when one ETF outperforms the market, the other tends to lag, creating a predictable rotation pattern that technical analysis can identify and exploit

To better appreciate how we use SimpleVisor for this task, we share an article written last year entitled: Growth To Value- Which Rotation Is Next? The article walks through our tools in detail and shows how we use them to position ahead of rotations in real time.

The more aggressively passive investors rotate, the more reliable these patterns and our tools become.

Narrative Analysis

Technical analysis, like the SimpleVisor tools we described, indicates when a rotation is probable or underway. Narrative analysis helps us understand the driving force behind investors’ collective actions. Importantly, researching the narrative helps us assess whether a narrative is built on solid ground or speculative momentum. In a market increasingly driven by aggressive trading in passive instruments, narratives spread faster and with greater force than ever before. A compelling narrative can trigger billions in ETF flows within days, long before the underlying fundamentals catch up — if they ever do.

Not all narratives are created equal. Some rotations are driven by genuine shifts in economic conditions or monetary policy. These rotations tend to be durable and worth following. Others are driven purely by momentum and media attention. A narrative heats up, aggressive passive investors pile into ETFs reflecting that theme, and the rotation feeds on itself until it no longer attracts investors.

Distinguishing between the two is as important as identifying the rotation itself. A technically strong signal supported by a fundamentally weak narrative is a trade not likely to last long.

Summary

The irony of modern passive investing is that the securities built for patience and longer-term discipline have become tools for short-term speculation. Passive investors, often without realizing it, are behaving more like active traders, rotating aggressively between sectors and factors in response to narratives.

Understanding this dynamic is the first step toward better investment discipline. For those looking to turn it into an opportunity, SimpleVisor’s rotation analysis tools help you identify and act on these shifts before the crowd does. Additionally, our blog articles, Daily Commentary, podcasts, and the weekly Bull Bear Report help separate the signal from the noise of current market narratives.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 15:05

China Guides Down: Beijing Drops Economic Growth Target To Lowest Level In 35 Years

China Guides Down: Beijing Drops Economic Growth Target To Lowest Level In 35 Years

China just admitted what we've been reporting for years: the old growth engine is sputtering, and the world's second-largest economy is officially shifting into a lower gear. At the opening of the National People's Congress (NPC) on Thursday, Premier Li Qiang unveiled a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5% - the lowest benchmark since 1991 and the first time in over three decades Beijing has dared to set anything below 5%.

The announcement came at the start of the National People's Congress, a meeting of China's leaders in Beijing's Great Hall of the People where government officials reveal economic and policy priorities for the year. 

The Real Culprits: Homegrown Headaches, Not Just Tariffs

While one could point to the 2025 trade escalations and current uneasy truce (with higher duties suspended until late 2026 and a Trump-Xi summit looming March 31–April 2), China's slowdown is overwhelmingly domestic. Here's what's going on: 

  • Property sector implosion - The bubble that once drove 25–30% of GDP has burst and shows no signs of bottoming. Sales, prices, starts, and completions keep sliding; developers default, local governments bleed revenue, and household wealth (tied up in real estate) evaporates. This crushes consumer confidence and spending more than any tariff ever could.

  • Chronic deflation - Prices have fallen for years (longest streak since market reforms), eroding profits, wages, and willingness to spend. "Involution" (cutthroat overcapacity and race-to-the-bottom competition) in EVs, solar, batteries, and manufacturing squeezes margins while flooding markets.

  • Weak domestic demand - High youth unemployment, stagnant wages, a shredded social safety net (driving sky-high savings instead of consumption), and post-property trauma leave households wary. Subsidies for appliances or EVs haven't moved the needle because people aren't earning enough to spend freely.
  • Cooling job market and youth unemployment crisis - Urban youth unemployment (16-24 age group, excluding students) remains stubbornly elevated at ~16.5% as of late 2025, down only slightly from a record 18.9% peak amid structural mismatches: millions of new graduates flood the market each year chasing scarce white-collar and "iron rice bowl" government jobs (competition ratios hitting 100:1 in some provinces), while factories struggle with labor shortages due to overcapacity and export redirection.

  • Overreliance on exports/investment - The old model is exhausted. Export redirection helped hit 5% in 2025, but structural maturation (harder productivity gains as China catches up) means diminishing returns.

That said, net exports still hit a record $1.2 trillion in 2025.

After China opened the country up to foreign investment, they grew rapidly - becoming the world's second-largest economy. Much of this growth comes from manufacturing - which included expansions in vast industrial parks, EV plants and data centers, typically financed by cheap loans from state-owned banks. The country's factories produce many of the world's electric vehicles, solar panels and lithium batteries - with carmaker BYD notably overtaking Tesla as the world's largest EV producer.  

Chinese Premier Li Qiang patted the country on the back for meeting 2025 economic growth of 5% amid a "grave and complex landscape" which blended internal difficulties with external shocks. As to the new, lower target - analysts see it as pragmatic: it buys breathing room for structural fixes (boosting consumption, tech breakthroughs in AI/robotics) without the pressure to juice numbers artificially. Some skeptics (e.g., Rhodium Group) argue real 2025 growth was closer to <3%, making the official stats look even more optimistic.

According to Eurasia Group China director Dan Wang, Beijing is now willing to tolerate slower near-term growth while focusing on longer-term structural solutions, the NYT reports.

CFR senior fellow Zongyuan Zoe Liu says the lower target is "what the market and economists at home and abroad expected and know," as it allows policymakers to tackle fundamental economic problems without scrambling to hit an inflated number. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 14:50

Oil Is "Beginning To Flow" From Venezuela, Trump Says

Oil Is "Beginning To Flow" From Venezuela, Trump Says

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Oil is “beginning to flow” from Venezuela, with the United States and Venezuela engaging in a professional and dedicated manner on the issue, President Donald Trump said in a March 4 post on Truth Social.

“Delcy Rodríguez, who is the President of Venezuela, is doing a great job, and working with U.S. Representatives very well,” Trump wrote.

Rodríguez became the leader of Venezuela in January after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 3. Maduro is currently facing charges of narco-terrorism and drug trafficking in the United States.

 

Replying to Trump’s post, Rodríguez said in a March 4 X post, “I thank President [Trump] for the kind willingness of his government to work together on an agenda that strengthens binational cooperation for the benefit of the peoples of the United States and Venezuela.”

 

After being named the interim president of Venezuela following Maduro’s capture, Rodríguez had condemned Washington’s action, calling for Maduro to be returned. She termed the U.S. military action a violation of international law. Trump then warned that Rodríguez could face consequences if she didn’t “do what’s right.” Rodríguez has become increasingly cooperative with Washington over the weeks.

On Feb. 10, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a general license that authorized the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas in Venezuela. The license allows U.S. citizens to carry out oil and gas-related transactions with the Venezuelan government, including the development of new oil and gas sites.

Prior to this decision, Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA had to curtail production due to a U.S. blockade aimed at putting pressure on Maduro.

On Feb. 13, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a broad license that allowed major oil companies—BP, Chevron, Eni, Shell, and Repsol—to restart operations in the nation.

“Venezuela holds tremendous economic potential, but years of instability, corruption, and economic mismanagement have limited the nation’s growth and prosperity,” a Treasury spokesperson said in a statement to The Epoch Times.

“These general licenses invite American and other aligned companies to play a constructive role in supporting economic recovery and responsible investment.”

Venezuela possesses the largest commercially viable oil reserves in the world, estimated to be roughly 300 billion barrels, making up around a fifth of the global total.

However, taking advantage of these vast reserves will require bringing down the cost of production to make oil investments profitable.

Venezuela’s oil projects require a breakeven price of $64 per barrel, which is “among the highest in South America,” S&P Global said in a Feb. 13 report. “But reforms under U.S. oversight could lower costs to $45–50/b within the next few years,” the report states.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright visited Venezuela last month on a three-day trip, promising to improve the country’s energy production metrics and economy.

“This year, we can drive a dramatic increase in Venezuelan oil production, in Venezuelan natural gas production, in Venezuelan electricity production, to increase the job opportunities, the wages, and the quality of life for all of the Venezuelans across the country,” Wright said during a press briefing alongside Rodríguez.

“It will also enormously benefit the United States, and the Western Hemisphere, and the future partnership for all of us.”

In a Feb. 12 report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that Venezuelan crude oil output dropped by 210,000 barrels per day to 780,000 barrels per day in January from the previous month.

On the positive side, “its output is expected to rebound after Washington authorised a pathway for U.S.-incorporated companies—including U.S.‑based subsidiaries of international firms—to export Venezuelan oil,” the report said.

Meanwhile, oil prices have surged in recent days due to the ongoing Iran War. U.S. and Israeli forces launched coordinated strikes against Tehran on Feb. 28 under Operation Epic Fury.

On Feb. 27, Brent crude oil futures closed the day at $72.48 per barrel. Prices have jumped to $82.58 as of Thursday, 4:35 a.m. EST, an increase of almost 14 percent.

The U.S. national average price of regular gas was $3.25 on March 5, up from $2.98 a week ago, according to data from the American Automobile Association.

Speaking to reporters on March 2, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the White House was preparing to unveil a strategy to bring down rising energy prices. He did not give more details on the initiatives.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 14:37

Blacklisted: Anthropic Officially Deemed 'Supply Chain Risk' As Dario Crawls Back To Negotiating Table

Blacklisted: Anthropic Officially Deemed 'Supply Chain Risk' As Dario Crawls Back To Negotiating Table

Update (1430ET): While Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is begging the Trump administration to reconsider dumping them over ethical concerns regarding military applications of their AI, the Pentagon just put one more nail in that coffin - officially deeming the company a supply chain risk, Bloomberg reports.

"DOW officially informed Anthropic leadership the company and its products are deemed a supply chain risk, effective immediately," a Department of War official told the outlet. 

The designation, typically reserved for foreign adversaries, follows President Trump's directive for federal agencies to phase out Anthropic tools within six months, with contractors potentially barred from commercial dealings. OpenAI has already capitalized, securing a revised contract that Anthropic's CEO Dario Amodei has publicly slammed as mostly "safety theater" - superficial safeguards prone to jailbreaks and lacking true oversight on real-world applications like mass domestic surveillance or autonomous lethal weapons.

As reported below, Amodei has personally reopened direct negotiations with Under Secretary Emil Michael to salvage or renegotiate terms - telling investors the push is to "de-escalate" and find an agreement that "works for us and works for them," amid heavy pressure from stakeholders to avoid broader blacklisting. The military's deep reliance on Claude - especially via systems like Palantir's Maven in ongoing operations - makes a total cutoff painful and disruptive for both sides. Anthropic has vowed to challenge the Supply Chain Risk designation in court as legally unsound if needed, but these ongoing, tense discussions suggest a potential path back from the brink.

Will Dario back down from his 'red line' - sparking employee exodus, or does he sink the company?

*  *  *

Things over at Anthropic are getting wild.

On Friday, the Trump administration 'fired' the woke serial copyright infringerindustry disruptor and software-engineer-extinctor after a bruising dispute with the Pentagon came to a head over ethical concerns surrounding Claude's military use - specifically, domestic surveillance and fully autonomous weapons. The Pentagon demanded to use ClaudeAI for "any lawful purpose" with no guardrails - or having to ask permission from a bunch of blue-haired Karens in a life-or-death scenario. The chatbot's supposedly idealistic leader (whose sister and Anthropic co-founder, Daniella Amodei, is married to Holden Karnofsky, the founder of Effective Altruism himself) had to signal virtuemaxx to his employees, and said no. OpenAi's Sam Altman, who is a different kinds of opportunistic sociopath with zero moral qualms, pretended to side with Amodei at first only to immediately swoop in and poach Anthropic's Pentagon contract. Meanwhile, Amodei's investors, who had just dumped all their cocaine cash for the next 20 years into his company at a $380 billion valuation, and realized they would never see their money again if the government blacklisted and banned the company from all government supply chains, were terribly vexxed. 

The spat resulted in three things; first, in addition to getting 'fired,' Anthropic was deemed a "supply-chain risk" (making them radioactive to the defense industry) - and federal agencies were given six months to ditch Anthropic products. Second, OpenAI's Sam Altman slid into Hegseth's DMs (through proper channels, we're sure) and landed Anthropic's contract - which they revised to beef up and clarify safety protocols, and third, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei threw a ripper of a tantrum in a leaked memo sent to over 2,000 employees attacking the Trump administration and OpenAI. 

For Silicon Valley investors and allies, it immediately sank in how absolutely fucked they are if this stands. Now in a PR crisis, Amodei is scrambling to salvage his company’s relationship with the Pentagon (read: the goodwill of his investors) - and has begun last-ditch talks with senior officials in hopes of striking a new deal, FT reports, adding that he's now personally negotiating with Emil Michael, the Pentagon’s undersecretary of defense for research and engineering, who on Thursday called Amodei as a “liar” with a “God complex after talks with the Pentagon collapsed. 

Pentagon Showdown

Anthropic drew several red lines against allowing its technology to power fully autonomous lethal weapons or mass domestic surveillance, arguing that the level of protections the Pentagon wanted would be ineffective, and that the Defense Department's language was suspicious.

"Near the end of the negotiation the department offered to accept our current terms if we deleted a specific phrase about ‘analysis of bulk acquired data,’" Amodei wrote in a memo to employees. "That was the single line in the contract that exactly matched the scenario we were most worried about. We found that very suspicious."

Pentagon officials, meanwhile, claim that Anthropic was demanding they ask permission in life-or-death nuclear scenarios, which Anthropic denied.

A defense official said the Pentagon’s technology chief whittled the debate down to a life-and-death nuclear scenario at a meeting last month: If an intercontinental ballistic missile was launched at the United States, could the military use Anthropic’s Claude AI system to help shoot it down?

It’s the kind of situation where technological might and speed could be critical to detection and counterstrike, with the time to make a decision measured in minutes and seconds. Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei’s answer rankled the Pentagon, according to the official, who characterized the CEO’s reply as: You could call us and we’d work it out.

An Anthropic spokesperson denied Amodei gave that response, calling the account “patently false,” and saying the company has agreed to allow Claude to be used for missile defense. But officials have cited this and another incident involving Claude’s use in the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro as flashpoints in a spiraling standoff between the company and the Pentagon in recent days. The meeting was previously reported by Semafor. -Washington Post

Does the last-ditch effort to save things mean that Anthropic is going to budge on their red lines - perhaps matching whatever OpenAI has stipulated or agreed to?

Memo Meltdown

After OpenAI snaked their contract, Amodei dismissed the rival's safeguards as little more than "20% real and 80% safety theater," - claiming that OpenAI’s Pentagon deal appears to rely on “safety layers” and monitoring systems intended to block prohibited uses - safeguards he says are easily bypassed.

Refusals aren’t reliable and jailbreaks are common,” he wrote, adding that AI models cannot reliably determine whether they are being used for surveillance or autonomous weapons because they lack visibility into the real-world context of how their outputs are used.

Amodei also blasted the idea that contractors such as Palantir could enforce restrictions through software filters.

"Our sense was that it was almost entirely safety theater," he wrote, claiming such tools were designed mainly to placate concerned employees rather than actually prevent abuses.

'We Haven't Given Dictator-Style Praise To Trump'

Amodei argued that the real reason the Trump administration is targeting Anthropic has nothing to do with technology or national security.

"The real reasons the DoW and the Trump admin do not like us is that we haven’t donated to Trump… we haven’t given dictator-style praise to Trump… and we have supported AI regulation," he wrote.

Amodei claimed OpenAI leadership - including president Greg Brockman - had donated heavily to pro-Trump political groups while Anthropic refused to play the same game.

He also accused the Pentagon of coordinating messaging with OpenAI to portray Anthropic as unreasonable in contract negotiations.

“Sam is trying to make it more possible for the admin to punish us by undercutting our public support,” Amodei wrote.

Which, again, begs the question of whether or not Anthropic is now willing to budge on their red lines.

Investors Alarmed

Needless to say, Anthropic’s investors and partners are freaked out - with backers including Amazon, Nvidia, Lightspeed Venture Partners and Iconiq Capital scrambling to hold urgent talks with the company in recent days as they attempt to defuse the conflict with Washington.

A major technology industry group representing many of these companies sent a letter to the Hegseth Wednesday warning against the Pentagon labeling any AI provider a supply-chain risk amid a procurement dispute.

But what really matters are Anthropic's investors - both current but especially future (after all someone has to fund those billions in perpetual losses)  - many of whom blame Amodei’s confrontational approach for escalating the situation.

It’s an ego and diplomacy problem,” one person familiar with the talks told Reuters.

Some investors have reportedly reached out to contacts inside the Trump administration in hopes of calming tensions.

Following Trump and Hegseth's Friday announcement, several agencies began shifting away from the company. The State Department has reportedly moved to OpenAI following an order from the White House to phase out Anthropic systems within six months.

Meanwhile, Anthropic has raised tens of billions of dollars and is widely expected to pursue a public offering. Enterprise customers account for roughly 80% of the company’s revenue, and its projected annual run rate has reportedly surged from about $14 billion to $19 billion in recent weeks (and do we believe this?).

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 14:31

White House Crypto Advisor Counters Jamie Dimon's Stablecoin Yield Logic

White House Crypto Advisor Counters Jamie Dimon's Stablecoin Yield Logic

Authored by Danny Park via The Block,

Patrick Witt, the executive director of the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, made a statement in response to JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's recent comment on stablecoin yields.

Earlier this week, Dimon said in an interview with CNBC that platforms that pay yield on stablecoins should be regulated like banks, arguing that "holding balances and paying interest" constitutes a banking institution. 

Dimon highlighted the need for a level playing field, suggesting that banks face stringent requirements, including FDIC insurance, anti-money laundering rules, and capital standards, and that stablecoin issuers offering similar interest-like rewards should face a similar level of oversight.

In response, Witt wrote on X that Dimon's view misrepresents the issue, claiming that the CEO's argument is deliberately inaccurate.

"The deceit here is that it is not the paying of yield on a balance per se that necessitates bank-like regulations, but rather the lending out or rehypothecation of the dollars that make up the underlying balance," Witt said. "The GENIUS Act explicitly forbids stablecoin issuers from doing the latter."

Witt added that stablecoin balances should not be viewed as equivalent to bank deposits.

This issue was central to the delay in passing broader crypto market structure legislation, such as the CLARITY Act, where negotiations between banks and crypto firms over stablecoin rewards have remained contentious even after the GENIUS Act established a federal framework for payment stablecoins in July 2025.

Banks have strongly expressed concerns that allowing stablecoin yields could draw a significant chunk of deposits away from traditional banks. On the other hand, crypto advocates argue that properly regulated stablecoins offer consumers diversity and product opportunities for banks.

Meanwhile, the JPMorgan CEO suggested a potential compromise, which allows rewards on transactions rather than holdings. Such an option also appeared in the Senate Banking Committee's draft of the market structure bill, which resulted in Coinbase withdrawing its support from the legislation.

In recent weeks, the White House has been hosting closed-door meetings with crypto and banking executives to negotiate on the matter. While participants described the meeting as productive, no compromise has yet been reached.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 14:10

Tampons In Netflix Men's Room Torpedo'd Bid To Takeover Warner Bros: Report

Tampons In Netflix Men's Room Torpedo'd Bid To Takeover Warner Bros: Report

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Netflix’s aggressive bid to swallow Warner Bros. Discovery hit a wall last week, with a “tampon incident” playing a key role in turning Republican lawmakers against the deal.

As details emerge, it’s clear the virtue-signaling stunt of stocking men’s restrooms with feminine hygiene products highlighted Netflix’s unyielding commitment to radical transgender ideology, even as they begged for political approval in a post-woke era.

The drama unfolded during a congressional delegation’s visit to Netflix headquarters in Los Angeles several weeks ago, part of an annual tour around Grammy Awards time. Among the attendees was Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.), chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, a skeptic of Netflix’s claims to political neutrality.

The New York Post reports that while on the premises, Smith noticed a basket of tampons in the men’s restroom—a common tech company gesture to promote “inclusivity” for transgender employees.

But for conservatives, such moves symbolize efforts to normalize transgenderism, with ripple effects like encouraging harmful surgeries on children, eroding the nuclear family, and allowing biological males to dominate women’s sports.

“Let’s just say the chairman was pretty disturbed,” an insider familiar with Smith’s reaction told the Post.

The incident quickly rippled through Capitol Hill, reinforcing GOP suspicions that Netflix’s programming remains steeped in woke values. As one GOP staffer with firsthand knowledge put it: “This is 2026, not 2020. What were they thinking?”

Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos had been mounting a charm offensive, including a Senate Judiciary antitrust subcommittee grilling last month by Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah). Sarandos insisted Netflix appeals to all tastes and faces stiff competition from social media and YouTube.

“Price wasn’t Sarandos’ only obstacle,” noted New York Post columnist Charles Gasparino. “During the six-month bidding war, many Republicans in Congress, state AG offices and of course the White House came to believe that Netflix was seeking to create a monopoly in streaming — an increasingly important way Americans consume entertainment.”

Gasparino added that most Republicans “believe [woke] values are front and center in Netflix’s programming, and the tampon incident, as it filtered through the halls of Congress, became proof that the company wasn’t changing its politics.”

Conservative advocacy groups have long documented Netflix’s bias, with content pushing transgenderism, DEI mandates, and other cultural-left staples—often in kids’ programming. Sarandos and co-founder Reed Hastings are major Democrat donors, while board member Susan Rice, a former Obama official and vocal Trump critic, made podcast remarks bashing Trump-associated businesses, further alienating the White House.

The deal’s collapse came after Paramount Skydance upped its hostile bid to $80.5 billion, trumping Netflix’s $73 billion offer. Sarandos pulled out, stating: “This transaction was always a ‘nice to have’ at the right price, not a ‘must have’ at any price.” Netflix’s stock plunged $200 billion during the saga but rebounded post-withdrawal.

For wider context, President Trump weighed in on the antitrust scrutiny, highlighting the merged entity’s “very big market share” and vowing involvement in the decision. This echoes broader concerns that the merger would stifle competition and amplify leftist narratives, as detailed in recent analyses warning of the “end of the Golden Age of streaming.”

This isn’t Netflix’s first brush with controversy over injecting radical ideology into entertainment. As we’ve covered extensively, the streamer has a track record of demonizing traditional values while promoting ‘progressive’ propaganda.

Recall Adolescence, which portrayed young white men and the “manosphere” as toxic threats.

Other examples abound. An Obama-produced apocalypse flick warned of the “dangers of white people”:

Netflix also plans to reboot the 1990s kids’ show Captain Planet with heavy globalist messaging:

And who can forget the 2020 film Cuties, celebrating 11-year-old girls twerking and dancing like strippers, earning the platform the nickname ‘nonceflix’.

These instances reveal a consistent pattern: Netflix uses its platform to erode family structures, and cultural norms under the guise of “entertainment.”

The failed Warner Bros. bid is a victory for common sense over corporate wokeness. By standing against this power grab, Republicans prevented an even larger megaphone for leftist indoctrination.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 13:50

"Pissed" Trump Fires Kristi Noem, Replaces With Markwayne Mullin

"Pissed" Trump Fires Kristi Noem, Replaces With Markwayne Mullin

Aaaaaand, she's gone... Moments ago Bloomberg reported that Trump has named Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) to replace Noem

Trump posted the following on Truth Social:

"I am pleased to announce that the Highly Respected United States Senator from the Great State of Oklahoma, Markwayne Mullin, will become the United States Secretary of Homeland Security (DHS), effective March 31, 2026. The current Secretary, Kristi Noem, who has served us well, and has had numerous and spectacular results (especially on the Border!), will be moving to be Special Envoy for The Shield of the Americas, our new Security Initiative in the Western Hemisphere we are announcing on Saturday in Doral, Florida. I thank Kristi for her service at 'Homeland.'

Serving 10 years in the United States House of Representatives, and 3 in the Senate, Markwayne has done a tremendous job representing the wonderful People of Oklahoma, where I won all 77 out of 77 Counties — in 2016, 2020, and 2024! A MAGA Warrior, and former undefeated professional MMA fighter, Markwayne truly gets along well with people, and knows the Wisdom and Courage required to Advance our America First Agenda. As the only Native American in the Senate, Markwayne is a fantastic advocate for our incredible Tribal Communities. Markwayne will work tirelessly to Keep our Border Secure, Stop Migrant Crime, Murderers, and other Criminals from illegally entering our Country, End the Scourge of Illegal Drugs and, MAKE AMERICA SAFE AGAIN. Markwayne will make a spectacular Secretary of Homeland Security. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"

Developing...

*  *  *

President Donald Trump is preparing to fire Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem amid growing frustration over her self-promotional leadership style and bruising congressional testimony this week, according to multiple reports.

Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) described Trump as "pissed," according to NBC News.

Trump's dissatisfaction has intensified following Noem's appearance Tuesday before the Senate Judiciary Committee, where she faced sharp bipartisan criticism over her handling of department matters, including a high-profile advertising initiative, the Wall Street Journal reports.

An unnamed adviser to Trump described the hearing as particularly damaging, highlighting widespread discontent with her stewardship of the agency, the Journal said.

A key point of contention has been Noem's decision to allocate approximately $200 million for a taxpayer-funded advertising campaign urging undocumented immigrants to self-deport, with promotional materials prominently featuring the secretary herself. White House aides said the president had long viewed the effort as overly self-promotional.

During the hearing, Noem claimed that Trump had approved the campaign in advance - a claim that drew further ire from the president, who has told advisers and others that he did not sign off on it.

Adding to the tensions, Noem was grilled Wednesday by House Judiciary Committee members over rumors of a romantic relationship with Corey Lewandowski, a longtime Trump ally who serves as an unpaid adviser at the department. 

The Daily Mail has reported that Noem and Lewandowski, both married, have been engaged in an extramarital affair - a claim they have repeatedly denied.

In a heated exchange, Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-CA) point blank asked Noem under oath if she was engaged in sexual relations with Lewandowski. 

A furious Noem refused to directly answer, calling the question "tabloid garbage" and "offensive." When pressed further, she reiterated that it was "garbage."

Meanwhile, NBC News reports Trump has begun soliciting suggestions from aides and Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill for potential successors. Among the names that have surfaced in White House conversations are Republican Sens. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) and Steve Daines (R-MT),who announced Wednesday that he will not seek reelection, according to NBC News

Noem made headlines last week when she claimed that DHS staffers had installed spyware on her phone and computer, as well as on devices belonging to other political appointees.

You wouldn’t even believe what I’ve found since I’ve been in this department,” Noem told conservative podcaster Patrick Bet-David.

Noem said she discovered the spyware last year with the assistance of former DOGE chief Elon Musk and his team.
Noem then told Bet-David that the secret files were turned over to attorneys for review.

The DHS secretary went on to say she has seen “eye-opening” data from Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and the National Laboratories regarding the scientists who traveled to the infamous Wuhan Institute of Virology in China to conduct gain-of-function experiments on coronaviruses.

“It was eye-opening,” she said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 13:39

Oracle Prepares To Axe Thousands Of Jobs In New Layoff Round

Oracle Prepares To Axe Thousands Of Jobs In New Layoff Round

Shares of Oracle moved lower in New York shortly after lunchtime after Bloomberg News reported that the company is preparing to lay off thousands of workers as it spends aggressively on AI data center buildouts. The timing is not ideal: credit markets are starting to crack, concerns about Blue Owl are mounting, and the data center CapEx boom is looking increasingly frothy.

The planned cuts will affect divisions across the company and may be implemented by the end of this month, according to the outlet, citing people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named. Some of the cuts will target jobs that AI will replace, according to two people familiar with the plans.

Wall Street analysts forecast that the cloud unit's data center spending will drive Oracle's cash flow negative through the end of the decade, with a payoff not expected until 2030. Oracle has said it may raise up to $50 billion this year through debt and equity to fund data center buildouts.

This week, Oracle internally announced that it would review many of the open job listings in its cloud division, effectively slowing or freezing the hiring process, according to the sources.

Separately, Oracle previously disclosed its largest-ever restructuring plan, up to $1.6 billion in the fiscal year ending May (including severance). That disclosure helped push ORCL CDS wider, and the spread has since blown out to its widest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

It seems as though the stock has a lot of catching up to do.

The latest Bloomberg data show the company has 162,000 employees globally as of the end of May 2025. There is no definitive number on how many workers will be laid off in the coming weeks. The people Bloomberg cited said these plans are still active and could change.

We can certaintly call a top in the number of Oracle employees this decade. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 13:30

Stocks Tumble On Report US Plans Licenses For Global Chip Exports

Stocks Tumble On Report US Plans Licenses For Global Chip Exports

In addition to real war with Iran, Trump appears set to restart the simmering trade war with China. 

According to Bloomberg, US officials have written draft regulations that would restrict AI chip shipments to anywhere in the world without American approval, giving Washington broad control over whether other countries can build facilities for training and running artificial-intelligence models, and under what conditions. In other words, while Nvidia has long been the world’s AI kingmaker, now the Trump administration is considering taking a formal role in the industry that would include similarly sweeping powers.

If the rule passes, companies would need to seek US permission for virtually all exports of AI accelerators from the likes of Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, which represents a global expansion of curbs that currently cover around 40 countries

According to the report, the specific approval process would depend on how much computing power a company wants.

Shipments of up to 1,000 of Nvidia’s latest GB300 graphics processing units, or GPUs, would undergo a fairly simple review with certain exemption opportunities. Companies building bigger clusters would need pre-clearance before seeking export licenses. They could face conditions such as disclosing their business models or allowing the US government site visits, depending on the specifics of the data centers in question.

For truly massive deployments - more than 200,000 of Nvidia’s GB300 GPUs owned by one company, in one country - the host government would have to get involved. For context, 200,000 GB300s is the number that NScale, a UK company that specializes in renting AI chips to third parties, is planning to provide to Microsoft Corp. across four sites in the US and Europe. The firm described this deal as “one of the largest AI infrastructure contracts ever signed.” 

The US would only approve such exports to allies that make stringent security promises and “matching” investments in American AI, the people said, noting that the draft rule doesn’t specify an investment ratio.

The news promptly sparked a selloff across the semiconductor space, with Nvidia and AMD both tumbling alongside the broader semiconductor space...

... which in turn dragged the S&P and pretty much everything else - including Treasuries - to session lows.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 12:54

Energy Expert Warns UBS Just How Many Weeks A Hormuz Shutdown Would Send Markets "Out Of Control"

Energy Expert Warns UBS Just How Many Weeks A Hormuz Shutdown Would Send Markets "Out Of Control"

It is only the sixth day of Operation Epic Fury, and roughly the fourth or fifth day that commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been paralyzed (except for one Chinese-linked bulk carrier), whether by IRGC drone threats or by insurers suspending vessel coverage, and already energy economist Anas Alhajji warned on a webinar with top UBS analysts that "if this is going to last for four weeks, that's where things will be completely out of control."

Bhanu Baweja, Chief Strategist at UBS, asked Alhajji on the webinar: "How many days would the Strait of Hormuz need to remain shut for us to see a non-linear move in oil, with prices rising to $100 or $120 per barrel? Is there a timeline you can give us?"

Alhajji responded, "Our main scenario is that if this lasts four weeks, things will be completely out of control. And when I say out of control, I mean that even if China starts releasing oil from its inventories, the problem is that my guess is China would also restrict exports, which means that oil would remain in China. We were counting on that oil being in the market, and now it is not going to be in the market."

He continued, "The impact of the U.S. SPR is limited. Saudi Arabia is completely out of the picture. All of that spare capacity in OPEC is out of the picture. So what do we do? We are then left relying on demand destruction to curb prices. And because of the panic buying, prices would go above $100 easily in this scenario."

Alhajji warned about panic hoarding in the oil market. He said he questioned back in January why the Trump administration was hoarding Venezuela's oil after the Maduro raid, instead of bringing it to market.

Alhajji then emphasized, "I'm not talking about conspiracy theories. We were criticizing the Trump administration, companies, and trading houses that bought Venezuelan oil, and asking why they weren't able to sell it to end users and why they were hoarding it. Now we know." He was implying that this hoarding was in preparation for Operation Epic Fury.

Earlier in the webinar, Alhajji outlined critical questions:

  • Is the war about Iran's nuclear program, or is something much larger at play, with Iran serving more as a trigger or for broader strategic objectives?

  • The distinction matters significantly because the medium- and long-term outcomes would look very different.

  • Should attention be focused narrowly on Iran's nuclear program and regime change, or should the situation be analyzed within the much wider context of China, trade wars & tariffs, AI competition, Panama Canal, Red Sea, Venezuela, Syria, & Greenland?

  • Are we observing "conflicts" within a larger "CONFLICT," where some groups are opportunistically exploiting the situation to pursue their own "local" objectives?

As well as the problem:

  • The problem now is attacks that spark panic buying while Saudi Arabia cannot react. Thus, U.S. SPR release is limited, and China might ban exports. Prices would go above $100 easily, but fear would contain demand growth, limiting the increase in oil prices. The impact on LNG and NGLs is higher than on oil.

  • We cannot go back quickly to normal. It will take at least 2 months if the war stops tomorrow. (logistics and technical issues)

  • Lack of international cooperation (Every country for itself)

Who benefits from the Middle East in flames?

  • The US and Russia benefit the most.

  • Losers are the rest of the world, with the EU, India, and Arab Gulf countries losing the most.

  • China is prepared for the short run. If the war lasts months, China will be among the biggest losers.

Related:

The key question for readers is whether President Trump's Operation Epic Fury has effectively triggered an energy shock that, while not explicitly aimed at China, hits Beijing the hardest. It appears as if energy markets remain disrupted for at least a month, then the real issue is whether Asia's energy shock morphs into a financial crisis.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 12:53

Kharg Island Back In Focus As Seizure Talk Enters Mainstream Media Debate

Kharg Island Back In Focus As Seizure Talk Enters Mainstream Media Debate

Update (Thursday):

On the sixth day of the U.S.-Israeli Operation Epic Fury against Iran, seizing Iran's main crude export hub has entered the discussion in corporate media.

Former U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Gen. Keith Kellogg joined Fox News and discussed the seizure of the single biggest energy and financing choke point of Iran: Kharg Island.

"What I would hope they would do is really go and take Kharg Island. If you take out that island, that's 80% to 90% of the petroleum usage the Iranians have," Kellogg told the Fox host.

He continued: "You basically shut them off economically. They cannot support China. They cannot support Russia. Sooner or later, the other side is going to realize this is bad news."

We first posed the question on Wednesday: once the military planners behind Operation Epic Fury (a campaign likely planned for at least a year, if not longer) finish degrading the IRGC's air, ground, and maritime capabilities, what comes next?

Our base case is that the next phase targets regime funding channels, and the highest-value energy node is Kharg Island.

It's only a matter of time before the Kharg Island discussion goes mainstream. Mentions across corporate media stories (via Bloomberg data) have begun to surge.

"Kharg Island handles up to 90% of Iran's oil exports. Is President Trump thinking about seizing it?" Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer asked on X.

Latest on Polymarket: Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?

Kharg Island is now entering the mainstream conversation.

*   *   * 

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said earlier that the U.S. is "accelerating, not decelerating" Operation Epic Fury, with U.S. and Israeli forces conducting at least 1,000 strikes over five days against high-value IRGC assets and leadership. As those strikes have significantly degraded the IRGC's capabilities on land, at sea, and in the air, the next big question is whether Iran's energy infrastructure will become the conflict's next major focal point, especially as the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed and Beijing grows increasingly concerned about disruptions to its cheap Iranian crude imports.

Operation Epic Fury has targeted key IRGC leadership, military support networks, and financial infrastructure, severely degrading core pillars of the regime. The next phase to watch is whether the Trump administration and Israel will move against Iran's critical oil and gas infrastructure, which remains both the regime's economic lifeline and an important source of cheap crude for China.

What comes to mind first is Iran's main crude export terminal in the Persian Gulf, called "Kharg Island." Think of it as Iran's oil jugular.

Reuters reports that about 90% of Iran's crude is exported via Kharg Island, located off the country's southern coast in the northern Persian Gulf, in Bushehr Province, about 34 miles northwest of the port of Bushehr.

The latest from Bloomberg reports that Iran continued loading crude onto tankers at Kharg on Monday, despite U.S. and Israeli strikes on IRGC targets countrywide. It remains unclear whether the loading terminal will still be operational through the end of the week, given that the Strait of Hormuz is paralyzed and that any shadow tanker carrying Iranian crude through the chokepoint could be targeted by U.S. and allied forces.

One observation is that the Trump administration and Israel may be deliberately preserving operations at the Kharg loading terminal. If military planners had intended to immediately sever the regime's funding pipeline, the terminal likely would have been among the first targets of the operation. This suggests that allied forces may be keeping the facility intact for the country's next leadership.

"Kharg Island handles up to 90% of Iran's oil exports. Is President Trump thinking about seizing it?" Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer asked on X.

Our view is that if the Trump administration intends to push forward with a new government, Kharg Island's oil and gas infrastructure is unlikely to be destroyed. Notably, it has remained untouched in the first five days of the conflict. If it is destroyed, China would be furious.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 12:40

The Spell Of Woke Is Broke: Let's Keep It That Way

The Spell Of Woke Is Broke: Let's Keep It That Way

Authored by Thomas F. Powers via American Greatness,

It is too early to know with any precision what the long-term effects of the Trump administration’s anti-DEI efforts will be. We might take our bearings on that score by considering the fate of essays written by prominent law professors in the 1950s and 1960s touting this or that discrete step in the unfolding of the civil rights revolution—the latest Supreme Court decision, and so on—as if each were an all-or-nothing earth-shattering decision.

What we can now say with certainty is that what the Trump administration has done on the DEI front represents the beginning of a general reorientation of our politics away from wokeness. One need only survey what prominent leaders of the Left are saying about the political price the Democratic Party has paid on that score. What they are saying indicates a large political change, even if the Dems prove incapable of unmooring themselves from woke politics for the near future.

The first sign of this reorientation is a general shift in the popular mindset: the spell of woke politics has broken. This matters because it was always the way in which woke politics commanded assent in the citizens’ hearts and minds that was crucial. That assent has been questioned or denied now in a broad way, with the backing of public authority (Supreme Court decisions, executive orders, agency directives), and with widespread public support. Wokeness’s public hectoring, punitiveness, and censoriousness, and the extremism of many of its positions on the issues, is unpopular at the level of 70–30 or 80–20 opinion poll divides.

We ought to be confident, therefore, that the broken spell of wokeness augurs a permanent shift in our public life. What that means precisely, however, depends very much on how we understand wokeness and what is done going forward to ensure that woke excess does not return. Now, if, as many say, wokeness was the product of cultural Marxism (Christopher Rufo and a host of followers) or postmodernism (Jordan Peterson and another host of followers), then all that needs to be done is to combat bad ideas. On these interpretations, our universities in particular, and other cultural institutions where the influence of such ideas holds sway, need our attention. Certainly, cultural Marxism and postmodernism represent bad ideas, and the world would be a better place without their influence.

But if what wokeness represents above all is the explosive power of the civil rights revolution and the influence of an aggressive leftist interpretation of anti-discrimination politics, as another band of interpreters claims (I among them), then the task ahead is much bigger and much more difficult.

Trump’s anti-DEI measures, on this view, would represent only the first step in a broader campaign of civil rights reform. One could look long and hard without seeing much in the way of evidence for any such thing so far. Are these current efforts against DEI an illusion, a brief moment of political opportunism that will recede as public hatred of wokeness recedes—only to return in a few years when the next wave of anti-discriminatory passion rises up?

I don’t think that worry is justified. The anti-DEI campaign to date will have enduring consequences because even if it is not yet clear that what is at stake in DEI is civil rights politics, the current reorientation can only have the effect of raising our awareness of the role of anti-discrimination in our public life. This has begun on the all-important moral plane of civil rights politics. Precisely by breaking the spell of its puritanical commands, our anti-woke moment is reworking something essential to civil rights politics. Because public morality is the crucial filter of the human mind, a shift at this level will change what we see, what we think, and what we think we can say. Anti-woke sentiment, backed by changes in the law, is providing a moment of political, cultural, and mental freedom that will necessarily lead, after many decades during which this was not possible, to a general reappraisal of the moral power and the meaning of the civil rights revolution.

Morality, the Problematic Core of Anti-Discrimination Politics

The civil rights regime was always a collection of disparate, crucial elements. anti-discrimination politics began with the discrete groups who claim its protections (by now an overwhelming majority of the population), but it has been bolstered by laws and institutions and by a set of supporting “ideas” (critical race theory, postmodernist “difference” theory, critiques of “prejudice” by sociologists and anthropologists in the early twentieth century, e.g.). Its modes and orders have been advanced further in a hundred independent corollary efforts of cultural change throughout modern life (in the professions and in the domains of art, literature, and the like).

But central to the whole has always been the moral claim of the fight against discrimination. That moral claim has always been essential to civil rights politics and explains its great power in modern life.

Morality is crucial to anti-discrimination for a very simple reason: our perception of “discrimination” is a perception of an injustice. Indeed, what we mean politically by “discrimination” is always “unjust discrimination.” All human beings discriminate among classes of things, conceiving of better and worse, all the time; whenever we say “that’s discrimination” in a political sense, however, what we always have in mind is some kind of unfair or unmerited discrimination or negative judgment.

At the very beginning of anti-discrimination, we of course confront a form of unfair or unjust discrimination against blacks in America that any fair-minded person can very easily see was outrageous. Any decent person will say that an individual ought to be judged by the content of his character, not by the color of his skin. Anti-black discrimination in America was also extremely harsh and harmful, entailing a wide array of harms, ranging from minor indignities all the way up to violence and homicide. Americans were powerfully reminded of the profound injustice of American racism at the moment of their great moral triumph over Hitler and Nazism, which revealed the full scale of the horror of the Holocaust.

The moral power of civil rights politics played a decisive role in the 1950s and 1960s when the anti-discrimination regime was launched. It is true that the American liberal democratic tradition had long expressed a certain wariness of moral crusades (like Prohibition or, before that, religious puritanism). Only a moral force of immense power, of the sort the civil rights revolution was, could overcome our hesitations along those lines. The only real parallel to the civil rights effort was the attempt a century earlier to deal with American race discrimination’s father, or grandfather, slavery, in the Civil War, the bloodiest war in American history.

Victims of discrimination now carried a moral claim that could be used to demand attention from others. This moral starting point was supercharged and made hyper-spirited because, not entirely by conscious design, anti-discrimination enforcement came to institutionalize a hybrid of the civil law and criminal law. Policing harassment and discrimination borrows from the spirit of the criminal law at crucial points (naming offenders and victims, enlisting government prosecutors, paying close attention to intent and “motive”) but with the legal instrumentalities of tort law (looser procedures with lower standards of protection for the accused).

One consequence of this hybrid quasi-public, quasi-private legal structure was that enforcement of the machine could be handed over to employers, educational establishments, and other large (private or public) institutional entities acting in their capacity as “employers.” Enforcement was then implemented by our fellow citizens, acting under a sanction that was rooted in the law but not evidently or obviously “official” or governmental. The overall result was that anti-discrimination enforcement became a way of policing in an effective and relatively intimate way a significant portion of our social interactions, interpersonal behavior, and private speech—and policing how people treat one another is very much a matter of basic morality.

It was into this social domain that civil rights law, invited in by all-too-willing fellow citizens (bosses, deans, HR managers), imported the punitive and blame-casting spirit of the criminal law. At least as important, these individuals wielded the crucial coercive “corrective measure” of this privatized enforcement regime, above all, the firing of individuals. Punishment thus completes the picture for anything in the ballpark of “harassment”—and also for actions like demonstrating recalcitrance to the demands of the new order.

A New Morality?

As important as the victim/perpetrator injustice claims have been to the moral hold of civil rights politics, the morality of the anti-discrimination revolution is more complicated than that; moreover, its various claims are stated in much more precise terms. Indeed, a whole new system of public morality emerged out of the civil rights revolution.

To elaborate on this in detail would take more space than I have here, but in brief, a new terminology has emerged to clarify the harm of discrimination and to articulate the steps that must be taken to eradicate it. “Identity” is a vitally important term today because it names with some precision what it is in the individual that is threatened by group-on-group discrimination. “Respect” must replace mere “toleration” as a standard of interpersonal treatment because toleration is consistent with some kinds of discrimination (especially discrimination in the private sector). Claims from both identity and respect show that civil rights politics is thus necessarily a politics of “recognition.” New schemes of representation come into view as necessary as well—new, more “inclusive” schemes that reflect the “voices” of those previously excluded by discrimination. And, last but certainly not least, a host of new equality claims—systemic, structural, societal—call into question noticeable inequalities affecting the groups protected under anti-discrimination law. Such claims are now advanced under the heading of “equity.”

A whole new civic morality has thus emerged out of the political upheaval of the civil rights revolution; shamefully, our political scientists have nothing to say about this massive and astonishing fact of our public life.

It is the morality of civil rights as interpreted by the Left that supplies the key “ideas” that are at the core of the woke outlook—and not, I would insist, cultural Marxism or postmodernism or cultural relativism, and so on. To be sure, “ideas” there are here aplenty—identity, inclusion, recognition, respect, equity, etc.—but they are all ideas with a very simple and clear political origin. The lesson for us here ought to be this: political history as the cause of ideas, not intellectual history as the cause of politics.

One additional step remains: it is above all the moral logic of civil rights politics that must be “taught,” as a semi-official catechism, by way of the public and private enforcers of the regime, through things like diversity training, Title IX training, anti-bullying training, and the like—and with punitive sanctions for those who do not want to go along.

The moral power of the anti-discrimination revolution helps to explain how it could grow and grow, more or less unchecked, to the point where it became the monstrous woke regime against which the people have finally rebelled. This explains, too, why the American Left thought for so long that the Democratic Party could ride an anti-discrimination coalition to enduring political victory. Because of its moral content, the anti-discrimination regime—its groups, its laws, its ideas, its institutions, public and private—all seemed unquestionable, simply above criticism.

Our Doubts About the New Morality

What is crucial about the current moment is that anti-DEI sentiment extends to a new wariness concerning precisely the moralism of wokeness. Americans are heirs of the Enlightenment and heirs of liberal democratic constitutional government, and they have not entirely forgotten the suspicion of any politics that claims too much in the name of high and lofty ideals, religious or secular.

It’s true that almost no one is saying publicly that anti-wokeness is really at bottom opposition to civil rights moralism. But one need only consider in rough outline what it is that public anti-woke ire expresses in order to see why that is the case.

We don’t see this, however, and that is because the great moral power of civil rights still does its work to halt us from facing the enormous consequences of the social-political revolution that has taken place in its name. This is something that we see today, even in the Trump administration’s very effective anti-DEI measures. This is a huge effort of civil rights reform, in fact, unprecedented in its sweep. But does anyone call it by that name?

What is needed is a fuller and franker facing of the hold the civil rights revolution has on us. The greatest obstacle to that is its moral hold. How, then, to start to challenge—or at least to begin to think clearly about—something as important to American life as the morality of anti-discrimination without going off the deep end into a world that would welcome back discrimination of the kind American blacks endured before the 1960s. That is a price we cannot pay.

One answer is to begin to look at, to see, the civil rights revolution in its many conflicts with another morality that has great power in America—namely, the morality of the liberal democratic constitutional tradition. And when one begins to look on that level, there are indeed many, many conflicts between the logic of anti-discrimination and that older moral-political outlook.

Looking at anti-discrimination (as a whole) from the perspective of liberalism (as a whole), we will perhaps be able to begin, finally, to see the anti-discrimination regime as a distinct entity. We will, at the same time, be unable not to notice the many lines of tension between these twin poles of our moral-political order. That ought to free us up to start thinking more clearly about the relationship between them. Questioning one’s civic morality is not something to be embraced lightly, but fortunately for us in this situation, questioning one set of our moral categories may be done with a view to another, healthier, set.

* * *

Thomas F. Powers is Visiting Lecturer at The Center for Civics, Culture, and Society at Cleveland State University and author of American Multiculturalism and the Anti-Discrimination Regime (St. Augustine’s Press).

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 12:35

Israel Targets Iran's Protest-Crackdown Forces With New Airstrikes

Israel Targets Iran's Protest-Crackdown Forces With New Airstrikes

Israel is striking Iran’s internal security apparatus in an effort to weaken the regime’s ability to suppress dissent and potentially open the door to a popular uprising, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Israeli airstrikes on Wednesday targeted figures and facilities tied to domestic repression, including members of the Basij paramilitary and senior intelligence officials, the Israeli military said. Israel and the U.S. have also hit internal-security institutions such as the Tehran headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which plays a central role in protecting the regime.

The IRGC and Basij led the violent crackdown on antigovernment protests in January, when security forces fired on demonstrators and killed thousands. Police and intelligence agencies also detained large numbers of protesters.

Israeli officials say the goal is to weaken Iran’s coercive apparatus from the air so citizens can challenge the government on the ground. Analysts caution that airpower alone may not bring down the regime.

“If the bet is that airstrikes will finish the job from above while Iranians complete it from below, it’s a bet that rests on no clear historical model,” said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. “It also ignores the resilience of entrenched authoritarian systems like the Islamic Republic.”

The Wall Street Journal writes that recent strikes targeted dozens of internal security facilities, including the IRGC’s Tharallah headquarters, which coordinates intelligence, policing and Basij units during unrest. Israeli jets also hit the police special-units command, Faraja, responsible for riot control. Iran later confirmed the death of Faraja intelligence chief Golamreza Rezaian.

“These bodies were responsible for, among other things, suppressing protests against the regime through violent measures and civilian arrests,” the Israeli military said.

Joint U.S.-Israeli operations have also focused on western Iran’s Kurdish regions, long known as opposition strongholds. Rights groups reported strikes on police and detention sites in the Kurdish city of Sanandaj.

The conflict comes amid growing unrest inside Iran driven by economic hardship, political grievances and anger over the January killings. More than 7,000 people have died in the unrest, according to Human Rights Activists in Iran.

Still, the government retains a near monopoly on weapons across most of the country, and Basij patrols continue. Civilian casualties from the conflict—over 1,000 so far, including 180 children—could also strengthen hardline support for the regime.

Former President Donald Trump has urged Iranian security forces to defect. “I urge the IRGC, Iranian military, police to lay down your arms and receive full immunity or face certain death,” he said Sunday. “It will be certain death.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 11:40

Debate: What Should Trump Do Now In Iran?

Debate: What Should Trump Do Now In Iran?

LIVE NOW: 

***************************

Tonight at 7pm ET on the ZH homepage, we host a debate on the ongoing war with Iran.

Joining the discussion:

  • Curt Mills, executive director of The American Conservative, the magazine founded by Pat Buchanan and a prominent voice for the original America First right.
     
  • Max Abrahms, Northeastern University professor and widely cited scholar on terrorism and international security.

Moderating the discussion is Bret Weinstein, evolutionary biologist and Dark Horse host.

Mills follows in Buchanan’s footsteps, who was early to sound the alarm about the United States being dragged into “Israel’s war”:

While Mills sees Israel as the largest thorn in the side of America and the chief cause behind Trump’s abandonment of his pro-peace promise, Abrahms sees Turkey as the “most annoying country for US national security goals in the Middle East”:

Abrahms is a staunch zionist though not nearly as radical as Senator Lindsey Graham (who is already advocating for Trump to bomb Lebanon). While broadly supportive of the stated goals of weakening Iran’s missiles and navy, Abrahms recognizes that regime change is too ambitious:

Tune in tonight at 7pm ET here on the ZH home or X feed.
 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 10:55

Iran Says Strait Of Hormuz Open As China-Linked Ship Transits Maritime Chokepoint

Iran Says Strait Of Hormuz Open As China-Linked Ship Transits Maritime Chokepoint

"Some are criticizing us [Iran], saying that we have closed the Strait of Hormuz. We do not believe in closing the Strait of Hormuz at all," Iranian military commander Amir Heydari told Iranian state TV on Thursday.

The first sign that the critical maritime chokepoint was partially open came late Wednesday night, when we were among the first to report that a China-linked bulk carrier exited the Strait of Hormuz without incident, a notable development given earlier reports and market chatter that Iran might allow only Chinese-linked ships to transit.

Shortly after our report that the Iron Maiden vessel made it through the narrowest part of the waterway unharmed, Bloomberg also reported on the development, noting that the ship had changed its destination signal to "CHINA OWNER."

Latest activity in the Strait.

Earlier this week, Iran's IRGC said that any vessel sailing through the waterway "could be at risk from missiles or rogue drones," according to the semi-official Fars News Agency.

China has urged peace and called for an immediate ceasefire to the U.S.-Israeli Operation Epic Fury to "prevent further escalation of tensions and stop the conflict from spreading and engulfing the entire Middle East."

Everyone knows why China is calling for peace: the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's cheap oil flows have effectively been closed to the world's second-largest economy, and that pressure is likely to be used as leverage by President Trump in his upcoming visit to China.

Trump has said the U.S. will offer insurance for tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz and, if necessary, provide naval escorts to help restart energy flows as the commercial shipping lane remains heavily disrupted.

Beijing is likely asking this question:

Even with ten or more tankers and other vessels reportedly hit by IRGC drones in or around the Strait, intelligence and military analysts told Reuters that the IRGC could sustain drone attacks in the waterway for months. The Strait has not been fully closed, in part because the Trump administration spent the week degrading Iran's naval capabilities, but the disruption is still severe because major European and global insurers have abruptly pulled or canceled war-risk coverage for the region.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 09:25

Futs Jump On Reports About Iran's Willingness To Give Up Uranium Stockpile

Futs Jump On Reports About Iran's Willingness To Give Up Uranium Stockpile

U.S. equity futures jumped around 4:00 a.m. ET after Bloomberg News reported that Iran had previously signaled a willingness to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpiles in high-stakes negotiations, just before the U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury.

Although the Bloomberg story relates to last week's U.S.-Iran developments, the market is extremely sensitive to headlines - even old ones - and that was enough to send S&P 500 E-mini futures surging, erasing earlier losses and now flat. Nasdaq futures are also little changed.

Main U.S. equity futures indexes

Here's what Bloomberg reported:

Iran told the U.S. in recent nuclear negotiations that its stockpile of highly enriched uranium "is the result of our practical achievements and that we are ready to get rid of it, provided we get something good in return," the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency cited Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi as saying.

Bear in mind this news is 'old' (we reported on Friday), but for it to repeated no in public is very different from saying it in private a week ago...

Absolutely huge late Friday developing news, if it's confirmed and assuming it sticks, via CBS: "Iran has agreed to give up its stockpile of enriched material - zero accumulation - and allow for full verification by the IAEA of its nuclear program according to US-Iran talks mediator, Oman's foreign minister Badr al Busaidi."

The Iranian side also seems to be confirming its willingness to make this significant concession, also to stave off a massive US attack, given the immense build-up of Pentagon assets in the region. According to more breaking details via CBS:

Negotiators from the U.S. and Iran have made "substantial progress" toward a deal to curb Iran's nuclear program, Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi told CBS News on Friday, as President Trump considers strikes on Iran.

Albusaidi — who has mediated several rounds of U.S.-Iran talks over the last month — told "Face the Nation" moderator Margaret Brennan that a "peace deal is within our reach."

He said Iran has agreed that it will "never, ever have … nuclear material that will create a bomb," which he called a "big achievement." The country's existing stockpiles of enriched uranium would be "blended to the lowest level possible" and "converted into fuel, and that fuel will be irreversible," according to Albusaidi.

Why this old news is being recirculated remains unclear.

Last week:

On Wednesday, CNN reported that Iranian intel officials had sent word to Washington about potential talks to end the conflict, yet no U.S. official has publicly confirmed that any negotiations are underway.

Interestingly while stocks jumped on the 'hope', Polymarket odds of a ceasefire by month-end slipped to just 1 in 4...

Iran potentially surrendering its uranium stockpiles may become the new "trade war" headlines for the stock market casino. We all remember those headlines from one year ago and in Trump's first term. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 07:41

China Halts Diesel, Gasoline Exports As Paralyzed Hormuz Risks Energy Shock

China Halts Diesel, Gasoline Exports As Paralyzed Hormuz Risks Energy Shock

Less than one week into Operation Epic Fury, Beijing has ordered its top refiners to halt gasoline and diesel exports as the Strait of Hormuz remained paralyzed on Thursday morning. The move exposes how China is one of the biggest losers in a prolonged Hormuz shutdown, with Beijing appearing to brace for an oil shock.

Beijing is scrambling after panicking at the start of the week and calling for an immediate ceasefire in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Since then, Iraq has begun cutting crude oil output, and Wednesday brought another major energy shock: Qatar’s massive LNG export operation declared force majeure, effectively removing about 20% of global LNG supply from the market, with roughly 80% of those volumes normally headed to Asia.

Bloomberg sources say that officials from the National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic planner, called for an immediate temporary suspension of refined crude product exports on Thursday. 

Chinese officials told top domestic refiners to halt any new export deals and cancel existing shipments, though jet and bunker fuel in bonded storage, along with supplies to Hong Kong and Macau, are exempt. 

NDRC's decision is merely viewed as a way for Beijing protect domestic fuel supply and energy security. We've made it very well known to readers that China is heavily exposed to Gulf energy. 

We've briefed readers (read here) that China is heavily exposed to cheap Iranian crude exports. About 80% of Iran's oil exports - about 1.6 million barrels per day - go to China.

... and so is the rest of Asia.

We asked a very important question on Wednesday evening: "Will Trump Seize Or Destroy Iran's Oil Export Island?"

Crude oil futures for April on the Shanghai International Exchange (priced in dollars) are near $100/bbl.

However, there is some good news overnight:

Any sustained closure of the critical waterway could trigger an energy shock in China, hitting first through higher prices and, if the disruption persists, through tighter physical supply. As the world’s largest crude importer, with roughly half of its oil imports linked to Gulf shipments, Beijing faces the risk of chokepoint disruptions. 

All of this comes just weeks before President Trump’s upcoming trip to Beijing, and with the U.S. military likely to provide tanker escorts through the narrow waterway, the leverage Washington appears to have gained ahead of any Trump-Xi meeting looks increasingly well calculated. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 07:05

Ex-OpenAI Researcher's Hedge Fund Reveals Big Bitcoin Miner Bets In New SEC Filing

Ex-OpenAI Researcher's Hedge Fund Reveals Big Bitcoin Miner Bets In New SEC Filing

Authored by Christina Comben via cointelegraph,

Leopold Aschenbrenner has built a US stock portfolio heavily concentrated in companies that supply the power and infrastructure behind the artificial intelligence boom.

The former OpenAI researcher, who left the lab’s superalignment team to launch San Francisco-based hedge fund Situational Awareness LP, has expanded it from $383 million in assets in early 2025 to a reported $5.52 billion in equity positions in its latest 13F filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

The fund’s 13F filing for Q4 2025 shows a highly concentrated portfolio built around betting that the real winners of the AI boom won’t be chatbots, but the power plants and data centers that feed them. Situational Awareness reported $5.52 billion in US equity positions across 29 holdings, with a large share of that value clustered in a handful of AI infrastructure names.

Those include graphics processing unit (GPU) cloud provider CoreWeave, fuel cell and power specialist Bloom Energy, Intel, optics maker Lumentum and Bitcoin miner-turned-AI infrastructure play Core Scientific

Aschenbrenner first drew attention as a precocious AI thinker after publishing a widely read “Situational Awareness” manifesto on the race to advanced AI, then quickly parlayed that profile into capital. His San Francisco-based AI hedge fund now manages more than $1.5 billion, backed by prominent tech founders, family offices and institutions.

Aschenbrenner has been a substantial net buyer quarter-on-quarter, with Situational Awareness’ 13-F reported US equity and options portfolio increasing from about $254 million in Q4 2024 to more than $5.5 billion by Q4 2025. Over that period, the fund built sizable positions in Bitcoin miners and related energy infrastructure firms including IREN, Cipher Mining, Riot Platforms, Bitdeer and Applied Digital.

Bitcoin miners pivot from hashrate to horsepower

The bet aligns with a broader shift already reshaping Bitcoin mining. After the latest halving squeezed block rewards, large miners have started repurposing their high-density, power-rich sites as AI hosting hubs, treating megawatts and data center space as scarce assets in the new compute economy rather than just hashrate.

Core Scientific, for example, has signed a series of 12-year high-performance computing hosting contracts with AI cloud firm CoreWeave, while MARA acquired a 64% stake in French computing infrastructure operator Exaion, expanding into AI and cloud services.

Situational Awareness disclosed a 9.4% stake in Core Scientific via an amended Schedule 13D, representing 28,756,478 shares with shared voting and disposition power, effectively giving the fund a levered bet on CoreWeave’s expansion and the miner’s pivot from pure Bitcoin to AI and high-performance computing.

At the same time, the fund has taken aim at the other side of the AI transition with a short position in Indian IT giant Infosys, a wager that large language models and AI coding tools will pressure the traditional outsourced software services model.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 06:30

Free Speech Victory In Germany After Top Court Issues Landmark Rulings For 'Insults'

Free Speech Victory In Germany After Top Court Issues Landmark Rulings For 'Insults'

Via REMIX News,

The wave of police searches and prosecutions in Germany may be facing a new hurdle after Germany’s top court, the Constitutional Court, issued two landmark rulings strengthening freedom of expression. However, Fatina Keilani, editor in Welt’s freedom of expression department, said that these two decisions have gone largely unnoticed by the public, an oversight that she finds remarkable.

Karlsruhe: The Second Senate of the Federal Constitutional Court gathers. Photo: Uli Deck/dpa (Photo by Uli Deck/picture alliance via Getty Images)

Writing in Welt, Keilani reports that the Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe handed down two resolutions in December that push back against what she describes as hasty convictions for insults. The rulings stem from two separate cases in which individuals used sharp, even offensive language against public officials and medical staff — and were criminally sentenced for it.

As Remix News has extensively reported, there have been hundreds, if not thousands, of such cases in recent years. Some of these cases have even attracted international attention and led to questions about freedom of speech and growing repression in Germany.

Just late last month, German prosecutors launched investigations into dozens of comments under just one post criticizing Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with one user calling him “Pinocchio.” A number of constitutional lawyers were quick to slam the investigations, with one labeling it “hysterical madness.”

Now, Germany’s top court is strengthening freedom of expression at a worrying time.

The first case involved a retired police officer whose son attended a high school during the Covid pandemic. Angered by the school’s testing requirements, the father sent the headmaster a series of emails accusing him of serving a “fascist system and its henchmen” and of “fascist cadre obedience.” The Göppingen District Court sentenced him to a fine of 70 daily rates of €80 each for insult. He lost every appeal before taking his case to Karlsruhe — where he finally prevailed.

The Constitutional Court found that his right to freedom of expression had been violated, ruling that the lower courts had not examined the meaning of his statements carefully enough, nor struck an adequate balance between free expression and the protection of personality.

Keilani quotes the court directly: “Part of this freedom is that citizens can attack officials they consider responsible in an accusatory and personalized way for their way of exercising power, without having to fear that the personal elements of such statements are removed from this context and form the basis for drastic judicial sanctions.”

The second case involved a man who had been placed in a psychiatric hospital on multiple occasions and subjected to coercive measures. In a letter to his lawyer in 2023, he described hospital staff as a “psychiatric mob.” When he applied to have the letter formally served, a senior bailiff refused on the grounds that its content was punishable. The Stuttgart Higher Regional Court upheld that refusal — but Karlsruhe disagreed.

The Constitutional Court was pointed in its criticism, noting that the Higher Regional Court’s entire reasoning had been reduced to just two sentences, and that it had made no real weighing of the fundamental right to free expression at all. The case has been sent back for reconsideration.

For Keilani, both rulings carry a significance that extends beyond the individual cases. She situates them within a broader climate of concern, noting that “numerous decisions against freedom of expression have recently raised doubts in Germany about the rule of law and about the stability of the courts with regard to this crucial fundamental right.”

In particular, the wave of politicians weaponizing comments on the internet to launch police raids and drag social media users to court. Against that backdrop, she finds the Karlsruhe decisions reassuring — while also reading them as a firm instruction to lower courts about the standard they must meet when judging speech.

These rulings do not necessarily mean, however, that internet users are now able to freely insult politicians without consequence. For one, prosecutors and politicians still have incentive to pursue such cases, both in order to stifle dissent and to intimidate the populace. Social media users may be able to defend themselves in court, but it will likely take years and cost them substantial amounts of money. Furthermore, outright insults without context are still likely to be prosecutable offenses under current German law. For example, insulting a politician’s physical appearance or simply calling them a slur could land social media users in hot water.

Regardless, the country’s top court has drawn a line in the sand, according to Keilani.

She also cited the “urgent decision of the Cologne Administrative Court regarding the classification of the AfD” as also a welcome sign that rule of law still stands in Germany. In that ruling, the Cologne court found that the designation of the AfD as a “confirmed” case of right-wing extremism was not constitutionally sound.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 05:00

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