"Bananas And Rice" Woman Arrested By DHS For Rioting In Minneapolis

In an effort to crack down on violent rioters in Minneapolis, MN, federal authorities have arrested 16 people identified as alleged participants who assaulted ICE agents in order to obstruct them from carrying out deportation arrests.  

One of the suspects is Nasra Ahmed, 23, of Minnesota, who rose to national notoriety after remarks she made during a Jan. 21 news conference comparing Somali American identity to a cultural mix she described as “bananas and rice,” a phrase that quickly spread across social media. 

A child of Somali migrants, Ahmed claimed during a press conference that she had been wrongly detained (kidnapped) by ICE agents simply for being Somali in the vicinity of an ICE operation.  She also claimed that she had been held for two days without reason and that agents "brutalized" her and called her "racial slurs" during interrogation.  Democrats and the far-left media seized on the story as evidence that ICE was "out of control" and using random "racial profiling" in Minneapolis.

Critics noted that there was no evidence to back Ahmed's claims of abuse and that she seemed to be very excited to become the center of media attention, suggesting that she was going to "go down in history" for standing up to ICE.  Immigration officials stated that Ahmed was not an innocent bystander and she was, in fact, detained for trying to interfere with an ICE arrest.

Ahmed took to the media stage to wax philosophical about her courageous fight against ICE and what it means to be a Somali in America.  “It’s kind of like bananas and rice,” Ahmed said. “People don’t think you can eat bananas with rice, but that’s what it’s like to be Somali and American.”

Her bizarre "bananas and rice" analogy went viral as another example of the low-end IQ standards associated with Somali migrants, coupled with their now legendary overconfidence.    

Today, the activist's bananas and rice are back in hot water after she was arrested again by DHS for alleged participation in violent riots.  Nasra Ahmed is charged with spitting on agents, throwing eggs at them and resisting arrest.

Rice and Bananas pic.twitter.com/du8oojETE8

— Jack Posobiec (@JackPosobiec) January 28, 2026

Attorney General Pam Bondi was on the ground in Minneapolis this week to oversee the arrests, largely based on video footage of identified activists engaging in attacks on agents.  

“Federal agents have arrested 16 Minnesota rioters for allegedly assaulting federal law enforcement - people who have been resisting and impeding our federal law enforcement rights."

“We expect more arrests to come,” Bondi added. “I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: NOTHING will stop President Trump and this Department of Justice from enforcing the law."

The crackdown comes after the death of Anti-ICE activist Alex Pretti, who was also misrepresented as a "peaceful protester" by the media, only to be later exposed in video footage participating in violent attacks on ICE agents in the days leading up to the confrontation that ended in his shooting.

The pattern is becoming rather obvious:  Activists and paid agitators interfere with ICE arrests (often violently).  Activists face consequences.  Journalists and Democrats cry foul and claim they were poor innocent victims.  Then, new information comes to light which ultimately reveals the activists were not innocent at all.  

The political left jumps on the headlines to spread anti-deportation sentiment, then retracts quietly when these headlines prove to be false.  They know that a large percentage of the Democrat base does not independently investigate information and sources and will continue to believe the first media claims they see as if they are a proven fact.   

It's the reason why debating the political left has become a superfluous exercise - They live in an entirely separate and delusional universe based on completely fabricated conclusions. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 18:00

Why The Next Recession Will Be The Catalyst For Depression

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

This is why a recession will catalyze a collapse of the credit-asset bubble-dependent economy down to its foundations.

Narrative control works by having a pat answer for every skepticism and every doubt. Boiled down, the dominant narrative holds that the Federal Reserve (central banking) and the central government have the tools to quickly reverse any dip in GDP, a.k.a. recession, and return the economy to expansion.

The unstated foundation of this narrative is that recessions are bad, as only permanent expansion is good. That this isn't "free market capitalism" doesn't bother anyone, because the whole point of central banking and government is to eliminate the rough edges of "free market capitalism" with the sandpaper of "state capitalism," which creates or borrows as much money as needed to smooth over any spots of bother, a.k.a. recessions.

That recessions are essential market dynamics is not part of the narrative, which is conveniently binary: recessions bad, expansion good. Markets reflect human emotions, famously fear and greed, which manifest as debt and speculation, a.k.a. animal spirits: when we're confident and feeding off an expansion that appears to have no limit, then we borrow more money (debt expands) and "allocate the capital" (i.e. place it at risk to reap a future gain) to increasingly risky speculative investments.

This allocation of borrowed money into speculative assets pushes the price of those assets higher, increasing the collateral to support further borrowing to fund more speculation. In this manner, debt, asset valuations, collateral and speculation all fuel one another in a seemingly endless expansion that makes every participant richer.

This pyramiding of debt and "wealth" generates two self-liquidating dynamics: interest and risk. All debt comes with interest, the compensation due those who put their money at risk by lending it to the borrower. This debt service rises as debt expands, and also as risk increases: the riskier the speculation and the borrower, the higher the interest rate paid by the borrower.

Central banks can play games to reduce interest rates even as risk and interest payment rise, but since central banks own only a fraction of the total outstanding debt, their ability to "corner the market" is nil.

Their gaming the system to enable further expansion of debt and speculation functions not by actually buying up the majority of the new debt, it functions as a signal: the Federal Reserve has our back, they will bail out / recapitalize any lender losses while suppressing interest rates below what the unfettered market would demand, and so the pyramiding of debt, speculation and "wealth" can continue, apparently indefinitely.

But signaling has intrinsic limits, for it doesn't increase the income needed to service additional debt or guarantee speculations will pay off. These are the Achilles Heels of the central banking perpetual motion machine: for the vast majority of borrowers, both private and public, income doesn't automatically increase as debt increases. Income is influenced by market factors (supply and demand), technologies, state interventions (subsidies, stimulus spending, etc.) and the expansion or contraction of debt, interest rates and speculative investments.

In the total-economy context, what matters are total factor productivity gains and the distribution of those gains to wage earners, enterprises, owners of assets and the state, which collects taxes from all three of the private-sector classes. This distribution changes with social, political and financial tides.

The past 50 years have seen productivity gains flow to capital (corporations and owners of assets) at the expense of wage-earners. This means households and small businesses must service debt from a shrinking share of the economy. As a result, borrowing more becomes increasingly risky for both borrower and lender.

As more of the output goes to corporations and owners of assets, their collateral, income and creditworthiness rise, meaning they can borrow more at lower rates of interest than wage earners and small enterprises. The more they can borrow, the more they can own and the more they can earn.

These are the core engines of extreme wealth and income inequality. The rich get richer because they have the means to borrow more income-generating assets at lower rates than wage earners. And unlike wages, this asset-generated income rises as assets increasing in value support additional borrowing as they serve as collateral.

On the most fundamental level, if economic expansion no longer increases the income of household borrowers enough to service more debt, the entire structure of expanding debt, collateral and speculation is destabilized. Ultimately, assets generate income from either 1) issuing more debt, 2) investing more in risk assets or 3) consumer spending. All three are interconnected, i.e. tightly bound, as any decline in the expansion of debt, investing or spending eventually bleeds through to reduced ability to service more debt and the end of the expansion of debt.

Since debt is inherently risky--borrowers can default, i.e. stop paying interest and principal on the debt--then depending on expanding debt for economic expansion is also increasing risk, especially if household earnings are stagnating while debt and interest payments are increasing.

Since the percentage of output flowing to wages has been declining for 50 years, households have funded spending by borrowing more money. Prior to the 2000s, college students borrowed very little to fund their education. Now student loan debt is measured in the trillion-dollar range. Auto loans and credit card debt has also soared, along with shadow-banking debt that isn't even tracked: pay-in-installments, etc.

Speculative investments are also inherently risky: the investment can fail to pay off. If the speculation was funded by debt, then both the borrower and the lender go broke when the speculation fails.

Stagnating earnings, increasing debt to fund spending and increasingly risky debt-funded speculation generate a credit-asset bubble-dependent economy: economic expansion is now dependent on debt expanding to fund spending and the speculation that pushes asset valuations higher, increasing the collateral for even more borrowing.

Once income is no longer rising fast enough to service higher debt loads, defaults cascade throughout the system, triggering avalanches of declining income for both assets and wage earners as households default on rent, auto loans, student loans, credit cards and mortgages, collapsing consumer spending and laying waste to lenders and employers, who respond by reducing borrowing and laying off employees.

Speculations that looked sound in expansion go broke as lenders pull risky loans, household spending dries up and collateral collapses as risk assets are sold off to reduce risk by raising cash and paying down debt.

Credit-asset bubble-dependent economies are tightly bound systems: any drop in income and valuations, any tightening of credit, any rise in interest rates and any decline in collateral (i.e. the valuations of risk assets) feeds back into every other part of the system, creating a self-reinforcing feedback loop of defaults, layoffs and sagging asset valuations.

In an economy saturated with debt, stimulus doesn't generate expansion, it generates inflation which limits central bank stimulus. Without that signal that "the Fed has our back," speculation and the borrowing that funded it both dry up. Once the inflow of new credit-funded investment falters, asset valuations enter a self-reinforcing free-fall.

In a credit-asset bubble-dependent economy, this inevitable unwinding is viewed as an unexpected catastrophe:

In an economy that allowed recessions to clear bad debt and excessive speculation, credit-asset bubbles popping is viewed as inevitable and normal.

What few seem to understand is 1) the last "real recession" that cleared excesses of debt, leverage and speculation was 1980-82, 45 years ago and 2) the buffers that enabled the eventual recovery back then are gone. Where total debt was low in 1980--about 50% more than GDP--now it's triple GDP. That means "borrowing our way to expansion" isn't possible: borrowers are already unable to service existing debt, never mind more debt.

As for the Fed rescuing the debt bubble by dropping interest rates to zero: recall that the Fed isn't buying more than a sliver of the $106 trillion debt; it's only generating a false signal that risk is low. In the real world, risk is rising inexorably due to excessive debt, interest payments, leverage and speculation.

As for bailing the system out as in 2008, that is no longer possible, either. The system was "saved" by recapitalizing the financial sector--the source of new debt and speculation. But this time around, the economy is saturated with debt, income has stagnated and cannot support more borrowing, and the credit-asset bubbles in housing and financial assets has reached unprecedented heights of risk, i.e. fragility.

This is why a recession that clears the system of excessive debt, leverage and speculation leaves a devastated economy incapable of expansion: the system is now totally dependent on excesses of debt, leverage and speculation for its survival, never mind expansion, and once that collapses (as all bubbles do), the signaling, confidence and wealth that enabled the bubble will no longer exist.

As for saving the system by converting fiat money to precious metals or cryptocurrencies: the debt--and the income needed to service the debt--will also be converted, and that doesn't change the inevitable collapse of credit-asset bubbles and all the economic activity that depended on the permanent expansion of that credit-asset bubble.

This is why a recession will catalyze a collapse of the credit-asset bubble-dependent economy down to its foundations. A re-inflation of a new credit-asset bubble will be viewed as the "solution," but that unstable system will no longer be viable. The real solution will be re-arranging the economy to thrive not on credit-asset bubbles but on productivity gains that are widely distributed to all the productive elements, not just the wealthiest asset owners.

This process will be time-consuming and difficult, as all the "winners" in the current bubble economy will expect both a return to outsized gains and a continuation of their outsized share of the gains. Neither will be possible, as the changes will demand time, sacrifice and massive long-term investment in productive assets.

The systemic risks inherent to a credit-asset bubble-dependent economy cannot be extinguished, they can only be cloaked or transferred to others. These artifices enable the expansion of the bubble at a cost paid by everyone when the system's self-liquidating dynamics pop the bubble.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 17:40

Kremlin Exasperated As Key Nuclear Treaty Expires Next Week, Crickets From US Side

Russia says it has tapped Washington on the shoulder many times related the the last remaining nuclear treaty between to the well-armed superpowers, but there have been crickets.

Moscow on Thursday reaffirmed it hasn't heard anything and is still eagerly awaiting a response from Washington to President Vladimir Putin's proposal to informally extend New START for another year. Presumably even if Trump officials have publicly signaled their willingness, a firm bilateral commitment has to be reached, with clear and open communication. 

 Kremlin.ru/Creative Commons

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned reporters that the impending expiration of the pact on February 5 could create a "serious gap" in the legal framework controlling strategic nuclear weapons.

With the clock ticking, Moscow's proposal underscores growing fears that, absent an extension, the world could face a nuclear arms vacuum between the world's two largest arsenals. Peskov's statement expressed some growing frustration and impatience:

"We keep waiting, but the deadline is approaching. There was no response from the United States," he said at a news briefing.

Peskov added that "the Kremlin's position is well known and it is consistent."

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty was signed in 2010 by Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, and limits the number of deployed strategic warheads to 1,550 per side, and caps deployed delivery systems - including of missiles, bombers, and submarines - at 700.

The treaty is further designed to regulate targeting of each rival's political and military centers in a potential nuclear conflict. The hope was that as Witkoff and Kushner have continued direct dialogue with Putin and top Kremlin officials, there would be a breakthrough on the nuclear issue, rapidly improving the bilateral relationship. 

This was certainly one of the high bars set for last August's Alaska summit. Putin had stated just before meeting Trump in person that the "next stages" of discussions with the administrations could include reaching "agreements in the area of control over strategic offensive weapons."

Both leaders have shown willingness to reach a breakthrough on this issue, but alas nothing has materialized, and Russia appears genuinely surprised the US hasn't jumped at the offer to extend it another year, giving more time for longer negotiations for what the future of New START might hold.

In August 2023 the US accused Russia of violating the treaty in disallowing US on-site inspections under its stipulations. In response, Washington halted Russian inspectors' ability to do the same on American soil. The fact that the Ukraine war has been raging without end has also put pressure on the treaty toward unraveling.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 17:20

Apple Rises After Shocking China Sales Beat Offsets US Revenue Miss

Ahead of today's AAPL earnings report, we've had a very mixed picture from Mag 7 earnings so far: first, there was Microsoft, which crashed after its capex forecast unexpectedly jumped, then there was META, which soared after its capex forecast unexpectedly jumped (only in this case the company made up for it by pretending its ad revenue will also increase almost dollar for dollar with the new capex), and then there was TESLA which first dropped, then jumped, then dropped as the market digested the company's complete conversion from an auto company (now without the S and X models) and into a robotaxi "story" stock. As such, many are looking to AAPL to break the tie when it reports at 3pm today.

But before we look at the numbers, here’s what Wall Street is expecting:

• Revenue estimate $138.4 billion 
• Products revenue estimate $107.69 billion
• Mac revenue estimate $9.13 billion
• IPad revenue estimate $8.18 billion
• Wearables, home and accessories estimate $12.13 billion
• Services revenue estimate $30.02 billion

Recall that during its fourth quarter conference call, Apple took the rare step of saying that it expects double-digit iPhone growth as well as 10-12% overall revenue growth. There was no way Apple would report such numbers unless it was 100% confident in that being the case. 

As Bloomberg's Mark Gurman notes, Apple is projecting a monster quarter yet given the current climate around its AI crisis, the future of the company really hangs in the balance here, as it may be fair to say that if Apple beats estimates - or least meets expectations today - the current management of the company and way forward has some staying power. If, for some odd reason, the company misses expectations, we’re in for an extremely tough news cycle and the potential of real change in the months ahead. 

In retrospect, AAPL was not making it up, because the stock has moved higher (even if it has erased much of the gains) after the smartphone company reported earnings which beat many expectations, while the iPhone had its best ever quarter largely thanks to China.

Here are the details:

• EPS $2.84 vs. $2.40 y/y, beating estimates of $2.68
   
• Revenue $143.76 billion, +16% y/y, beating estimate $138.4 billion 
  • Products revenue $113.74 billion, +16% y/y, beating estimate $107.69 billion
    • IPhone revenue $85.27 billion, +23% y/y, beating estimate $78.31 billion
    • Mac revenue $8.39 billion, -6.7% y/y, missing estimate $9.13 billion
    • IPad revenue $8.60 billion, +6.3% y/y, beating estimate $8.18 billion
    • Wearables, home and accessories $11.49 billion, -2.2% y/y, missing estimate $12.13 billion
  • Services revenue $30.01 billion, +14% y/y, missing estimate $30.02 billion

Broken down by product...

... show that iPhone revenue - which hit a record high in Q1 thanks to China - was the most notable: 

Taking a closer look at the Geographic breakdown, one region stands out: 

• Americas rev. $58.53 billion, +11% y/y, missing estimate $59.06 billion
• Europe revenue $38.15 billion, +13% y/y, beating estimate $36.82 billion
• Japan revenue $9.41 billion, +4.7% y/y, beating estimate $9.24 billion
• Rest of Asia Pacific revenue $12.14 billion, +18% y/y, beating estimate $11.39 billion

and... 

• Greater China rev. $25.53 billion, +38% y/y, smashing estimate $21.82 billion

Yes: it was all about China, because while sales in the US actually missed, it was that country where no number is ever cooked - pardon the pun - where revenues (mostly iPhone revenues) grew a stunning 38% to $25.53bn, smashing estimates of a $21.82bn number...

... yet which in context seems very, very fishy, and makes one wonder if Cook cooked numbers with Xi's help.

Going down the income statement: 

• Total operating expenses $18.38 billion, +19% y/y, above estimate $18.18 billion
• Research and development operating expenses $10.89 billion, +32% y/y, above estimate $10.14 billion
• SG&A operating expense $7.49 billion, +4.4% y/y, below estimate $8.03 billion
   
• Gross margin $69.23 billion, +19% y/y, beating estimate $65.5 billion
   
• Cash and cash equivalents $45.32 billion, +50% y/y, below estimate $49.73 billion

Some more details from the press release: 

• Installed Base Now Has More Than 2.5B Active Devices
• Declares A Cash Dividend of $0.26 Per Share
• Generated Nearly $54 Billion in Operating Cash Flow
• Declared A Cash Dividend of $0.26 Per Share

Yet while the stocks spiked sharply higher on the news of the massive iPhone revenue beat, it has since faded much of the move once again, perhaps as investors inquire what the revenue/margin hit to iphone will be from buying RAM memory which has triple in price in recent weeks.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 17:04

Ghislaine Maxwell Cites Dozens Of Men In Alleged Epstein 'Secret Settlements'

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Convicted felon Ghislaine Maxwell claimed in December that at least 25 men with ties to Jeffrey Epstein entered “secret settlements” to serve charges over their alleged role in the late sex offender’s crimes. 

Maxwell made the claim in a petition for a writ of habeas corpus filed on Dec. 17 in the U.S. Southern District of New York, according to Courthouse News. 

She is serving a 20-year sentence for her role in Jeffrey Epstein’s sex-trafficking operation and is seeking to void her conviction. 

Her filing comes amid renewed scrutiny surrounding the pending release of Epstein-related documents. 

The petition references four alleged “co-conspirators” and 25 additional men who were never indicted despite, according to Maxwell, being similarly implicated in the crimes. 

She said the government’s purported failure to charge those individuals showed she was selectively prosecuted. 

In the filing, Maxwell acknowledged that a defendant moving to dismiss for selective prosecution “bears the heavy burden of establishing” that others similarly situated were not prosecuted for the same conduct while she was singled out, and that the government’s decision was discriminatory or made in bad faith. 

“None of the 4 named co-conspirators or the 25 men with secret settlements were indicted,” Maxwell wrote. 

Maxwell claimed the existence of the 25 men emerged through government disclosures and civil litigation materials that were never provided to her defense. 

“New evidence reveals that there were 25 men with which the plaintiff lawyers reached secret settlements – that could equally be considered as coconspirators,” she added. “None of these men have been prosecuted and none has been revealed to Petitioner; she would have called them as witnesses had she known.” 

Maxwell further alleged that her indictment followed Epstein’s 2019 death in federal custody and was driven by political expediency. 

“New evidence reveals the reason why the Petitioner was indicted after having not been named and included in any of the earlier criminal indictments against Epstein or the Palm Beach Police Investigation, simply put it was for expediency and purely political motives following the death of Jeffrey Epstein in the care custody and control of the US Government,” she claimed. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 17:00

Erdogan Urges Trump To Let Him Mediate Iran Crisis, Amid Fears Of Refugee Explosion

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pushing the idea of hosting a direct teleconference between US President Donald Trump and Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian in a last-ditch bid to cool rising tensions, and avoid US military action.

Regional sources have newly revealed that in a phone call with Trump on Monday, Erdogan urged Washington to pursue diplomacy over escalation and offered Turkey's services as an intermediary, a Turkish official said.

via Reuters

Trump reportedly signaled interest in the proposal, though Tehran has yet to respond. According to the same official, the Iranian president has not issued any public reaction.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is actually currently in Istanbul amid a diplomatic scramble to avert war. One big problem is that Tehran is willing to talk about its nuclear program, but the reported Washington push for it to limit or abolish its ballistic missile arsenal is seen as nothing less than suicide. 

The Iranians see this request as simply a non-starter, given the same limitations would not be imposed on Israel, and the Israelis have already mounted a surprise attack on the Islamic Republic last June.

Turkey is against any US-led strikes or a war, but is still pressuring Tehran to make meaningful internal reforms:

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, said: “It is wrong to attack Iran. It is wrong to start the war again. Iran is ready to negotiate in the nuclear file.”

He admitted Iran faced challenges at the bargaining table, saying: “It might seem humiliating for them. It will be very difficult to explain not only to themselves but to the leadership. So if we can make things better tolerated I think it will help.”

Fidan argued Iran also had to present a new face to the Middle East, saying he had been “very frank” with the Iranians that they “need to create trust in the region [and] they need to pay attention how they are perceived by the regional countries”.

Turkey has some other pressing interests, given the fact that it shares a far eastern border with Iran, and Iranian migrants and tourists have long played a role in its economy.

Ragıp Soylu of Middle East Eye has put it this way: "Lack of EU initiative to stop this escalation is worrisome. If Iran explodes, 90 million people wouldn’t stay only in the region and Turkey; they will definitely migrate to Europe."

He added, criticizing absent EU leadership: "But Von der Leyen is more interested in yoga camps in India."

If Turkey isn't happy about how things unfold regarding the US, Iran, and Israel - it could once again weaponize a potential new migrant crisis and hold it over Europe's head, as Erdogan did in 2015.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 15:40

HHS Responds To Criticism From Vaccine Companies

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has responded after executives of top vaccine companies took aim at the Trump administration in the wake of a series of actions on vaccines.

“Vaccine recommendations are based on the best available gold-standard scientific evidence and public health considerations, not corporate interests. Under this administration, HHS is not beholden to the pharmaceutical industry,” an HHS spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email on Jan. 28.

“Decisions are made through transparent processes with the sole aim of protecting the health of the American people. Protecting public health and restoring trust will continue to drive HHS’ vaccine policy.”

Under President Donald Trump and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Trump administration has downgraded vaccine recommendations for shots against diseases such as COVID-19 and influenza.

Officials have also canceled contracts for vaccine research, including for projects involving messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) technology.

The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines utilize mRNA.

Albert Bourla, Pfizer’s CEO, was among vaccine company executives recently criticising the Trump administration.

He told The Wall Street Journal during the World Economic Forum in Switzerland in January that Kennedy’s position on vaccines is “anti-science” and that a new secretary of health would be needed for discussions on vaccines to move forward.

Bourla also said that “we always knew that who is in the government is extremely important for our business because it is highly regulated.” In the United States, the Food and Drug Administration, part of HHS, decides whether to clear vaccines. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, another HHS division, offers recommendations for cleared shots.

At the same event, Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel told Bloomberg TV that Moderna has no plans to invest in late-stage trials for vaccines because the Trump administration’s actions are making the potential market size in the United States “much smaller.”

“You cannot make a return on investment if you don’t have access to the US market,” he said.

A nurse administers the flu vaccine in New York City on Nov. 11, 2002. Robert Giroux/Getty Images

In addition to narrowing vaccine recommendations and scaling back funding for vaccine research, Kennedy has announced officials are looking into whether vaccines cause autism. This week, he appointed new members to a federal autism committee, including people who have said autism is caused by vaccines.

“Vaccines will not be a growth area under the current administration,” ING Global Lead for Pharma and Healthcare Stephen Farrelly said.

Investors said that long-term prospects for vaccine makers remain robust, but that companies are now more beholden to the positions of political leaders.

“Unfortunately, success and failure will rest on the opinions of a few people. It’s not enough to have good science and commercial opportunity,” Clear Street analyst Bill Maughan said.

GlaxoSmithKline and French drugmaker Sanofi have already reported lower vaccine sales in the United States, and Australia’s CSL in the fall of 2025 postponed separating its vaccine unit, citing “heightened volatility” and falling U.S. vaccination rates.

Sanofi on Jan. 29 said it expected sales growth in 2026 overall, but sales from vaccines were expected to be slightly negative in part due to Trump administration changes.

“Dosing, administration, and insurance coverage remain largely the same ... It’s more a perception issue more than anything else,” Sanofi CFO François-Xavier Roger said on a call with journalists. “The change of vaccine policy may have an impact, but it’s difficult to quantify at this stage. It might be slightly negative, but it’s too early to say and to quantify.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 15:20

Unprecedented: Trump Gets Putin To Halt Strikes On Kiev For One Week In Call

In a surprising Thursday development, President Trump has claimed that Russia agreed to pause strikes on the Ukrainian capital and some other cities "for a week" - a decision he said came after direct personal intervention with Russian President Vladimir Putin. If accurate, this could represent a huge advance in the direction of peace, given the positive precedent it sets.

"Because of the extreme cold…I personally asked President Putin not to fire on Kiev and the cities and towns for a week," Trump told reporters during a cabinet meeting. According to Trump, Putin "agreed to do that," adding that "we’re very happy" with the outcome. Watch:

President Putin agreed not to strike Kiev for a week due to the record-cold winter — President Trump

“I personally asked Putin not to bomb Kyiv and other cities for a week, and he agreed to this,” pic.twitter.com/0UH9O9pbyC

— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) January 29, 2026

The claim comes amid growing speculation about behind-the-scenes de-escalation talks. Earlier in the day, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on reports suggesting Moscow and Kiev had agreed to a so-called "energy ceasefire."

Early in the Trump administration, there had been perhaps a few weeks of such an energy ceasefire, where strikes seemed minimal and limited - but it ultimately failed to stick or take off. Ukraine has not acknowledged any such fresh energy ceasefire.

As for Trump's assertion, it appears to rest on personal diplomacy, with no formal confirmation from the Russian or Ukrainian sides. It reportedly happened in a phone call, which Russian state media has also featured a readout of. Here's a fresh TASS report:

According to Trump, the Russian leader "agreed to do that." "And I have to tell you, it was very nice. A lot of people said 'Don't waste the call.' You're not going to get that. And he did it, and we're very happy..., because on top of everything else, that's not what they [Ukrainians] need, [that is] missiles coming into their towns and cities. So I just thought, I should say, I thought it was a very, very good thing, and Ukraine almost didn't believe it, but they were very happy about it, because they are struggling badly," Trump added.

It was only on Wednesday that Russian drones struck Kiev and the surrounding region, killing two people and injuring others, and damaging a residential building. 

Via BBC

So the coming days and week will determine whether it's accurate, and if it holds. Likely President Putin and his military will indeed refrain, given the Russian leader is not going to want to embarrass or make angry his American counterpart.

Again, this is somewhat unprecedented and a positive sign for Trump's personal ability to de-escalate with world leaders. Let's hope he has the same sense when it comes to avoiding major military conflict with Iran.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 15:00

Bank Of America, JPMorgan Chase To Match $1,000 Contributions To Children's Accounts

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase said on Jan. 28 that they would match the U.S. government’s one‑time $1,000 contribution to children’s retirement accounts - also known as Trump Accounts - for eligible employees.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks during the Trump Accounts summit at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium in Washington on Jan. 28, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The current administration’s pilot program sets aside a $1,000 Treasury-funded deposit in a tax‑advantaged account for eligible children born in the United States between Jan. 1, 2025, and Dec. 31, 2028.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, in a statement, said the company is focused on the financial health of its employees and their families, “including more than 190,000 here in the United States.

“By matching this contribution, we’re making it easier for them to start saving early, invest wisely, and plan for their family’s financial future,” Dimon said.

In recent months, the bank has rewarded staff in other ways.

The Wall Street titan awarded a $1,000 special grant to eligible employees worldwide who earn less than $80,000 in annual cash compensation, depositing the funds into U.S. workers’ 401(k) plans.

Beyond financial‑wellness benefits, JPMorgan Chase provides all new parents with 16 weeks of paid leave, regardless of caregiver status.

Bank of America will also match the $1,000 seed money, according to an internal memo viewed by The Epoch Times.

“We applaud that the federal government is providing innovative solutions for employees and families to plan for their future, and we welcome the opportunity to participate,” Bank of America stated.

Two of the largest U.S. banks join a number of other financial institutions that have made pledges regarding the new accounts.

BlackRock, BNY, Charles Schwab, Robinhood, and SoFi have announced matching contributions for the accounts.

Non-financial companies, including Steak ‘n Shake, have also started supporting Trump Accounts.

“By funding tax-advantaged investment accounts for our employees’ children, we are ensuring that the next generation of Americans participate from birth in our free-market, wealth-building economy,” the fast food company stated in a Jan. 28 X post.

“Steak n Shake has benefited from our country’s prosperity, and we are committed to giving back to our communities and our country.”

Wealthy individuals have also made major commitments, most notably Michael and Susan Dell, hedge fund manager Ray Dalio, and rapper Nicki Minaj.

An authorized adult - parent, guardian, adult sibling, or grandparent - can open an account for a child if the adult has a valid Social Security number.

Although contributions are not mandatory, families may deposit up to $5,000 into each account each year.

The accounts’ funds will be invested in broad U.S. stock index funds and will track the overall performance of the stock market.

An analysis by the Treasury Department estimated that a single deposit could be lucrative by the time the recipient turns 60.

Officials project that the $1,000 seed money at birth can increase to almost $500,000 “with average returns” and more than $1 million “in strong markets.”

An exterior view of the new JPMorgan Chase global headquarters building at 270 Park Avenue in New York City on Nov. 13, 2025. Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images

Financial markets have rocketed this year: The S&P 500 hit 7,000 for the first time on Jan. 28, rising by 2 percent to kick off the year. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average has also climbed by 2 percent this month, to 49,000. And the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index is up almost 3 percent year to date, to nearly 24,000.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 14:40

SBA Suspends More Than 1,000 Companies From Federal Contracting Program

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) has suspended more than 1,000 companies from a key federal contracting program aimed at aiding disadvantaged businesses, after the firms failed to submit required financial documents, the agency announced Wednesday.

The SBA said it barred 1,091 firms from the 8(a) Business Development Program, which represents about 25 percent of the roughly 4,300 participants. The suspensions stem from a December 2025 order requiring all program members to provide three years of financial records by Jan. 19 to verify their legitimacy and root out potential shell companies or pass-through entities abusing the system.

About half of the suspended firms had received federal contract payments since 2021, totaling more than $5 billion over the past four years, according to the SBA.

The move is part of broader efforts under the Trump administration to overhaul the program, which supports small businesses owned by socially and economically disadvantaged individuals.

SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler said the suspensions were a step toward eliminating corruption.

“The 8(a) Program was abused during the Biden Administration to benefit favored minority groups at the expense of every other legitimate small business owner in America, including white Americans,” Loeffler said in a statement.

“The Trump Administration has acted from Day One to dismantle the discriminatory agenda that put white small business owners at a disadvantage, and to crack down on the fraud and corruption that proliferates within DEI programs.”

Loeffler added that the agency is suspending companies that have refused to provide basic documents that every legitimate business should have on hand.

“As we continue to eliminate bad actors from this program, we also look forward to introducing robust reforms in the coming weeks to bring total integrity back to federal contracting,” she said.

The 8(a) program, which sets aside billions in federal contracts annually, has faced scrutiny over allegations of favoritism and misuse. Under the previous administration, more than 2,200 new firms joined the program over four years, compared with just 65 accepted by the SBA in 2025, the agency said.

In an effort to address those issues, the Trump-era SBA in February 2025 reduced the Small Disadvantaged Business contracting goal from 15 percent to the statutory 5 percent. It also stopped approving applications based solely on unsubstantiated claims of racial discrimination and clarified that white applicants are not denied entry, nor is minority status alone considered a social disadvantage.

The agency also launched the program’s first audit in June 2025, focusing on high-value and limited-competition contracts over the past 15 years. In July 2025, the SBA rescinded the U.S. Agency for International Development’s independent authority to award 8(a) contracts after a $550 million bribery scheme involving program participants.

That same month, the agency issued guidance to federal contracting officers on reporting fraud, waste, and abuse.

In October 2025, the SBA suspended several 8(a) contractors linked to $253 million in allegedly fraudulent awards. The following month, it cleared a backlog of 2,700 applications for Veteran Small Business Certification, which officials said had been neglected under the prior administration.

The December document request was issued to all 8(a) firms as part of the effort to combat abuse by illegitimate entities. Separately, the U.S. Department of War and the U.S. Department of the Treasury have begun their own audits of the program.

“We are taking a sledgehammer to the oldest DEI program in the federal government—the 8(a) program,” War Secretary Pete Hegseth wrote on X.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 14:00

Israeli, Saudi Officials Swarm DC As Trump Weighs Iran Strike Options

Senior Saudi and Israeli defense and intelligence officials are converging on Washington this week as the Trump administration weighs potential US strikes on Iran, according to Axios. This as the same report also observes:

"A 'limited strike' is an illusion. Any military action by ‌the U.S. — from any origin and at any level — will be considered an act of war and the response will be immediate, ‌all out⁩, and unprecedented, targeting the heart of ‌Tel Aviv⁩ and all those supporting the aggressor," Ali Shamkhani, a top adviser to Iran's supreme leader, wrote on X.

Israeli officials, including IDF Intelligence Directorate chief Maj. Gen. Shlomi Binder, are reportedly presenting intelligence on Iranian targets to Pentagon, CIA, and White House officials, while Saudi counterparts are attempting to slow-walk Washington away from outright war. The Saudis lately joined the Emirates in barring the Pentagon for using airspace for any strikes.

Saudi Arabia Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman & US Secretary of State Marco Rubio during a prior meeting. Moneymaker/Getty Images

Gen. Binder met with senior US defense and intelligence officials on Tuesday and Wednesday, while Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman - brother of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman - is expected to hold talks with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump envoy Steve Witkoff later this week.

Behind closed doors, Trump is said to be considering targeted strikes on Iranian security forces and leadership figures in a bid to trigger internal unrest, Reuters has reported. Secretary Rubio yesterday floated before a Senate hearing the idea that the US must "preemptively prevent" Iran from attacking American forces already in the region, in an interesting display of war logic.

But CNN says stalled US-Iran talks over Tehran's nuclear and missile programs have only hardened Washington’s appetite for escalation - raising the odds that diplomacy is giving way to force once again, or rather, placing the diplomatic bar so high that it would be next to impossible for Iran to comply.

Currently, Trump officials are reportedly insisting that Iran be stripped of any missile capability capable of striking Israel. Israel, meanwhile, would retain its full missile arsenal - including the undeclared nuclear weapons that everyone in the world knows about - capable of hitting Iran. According to CNN:

The biggest sticking point, sources said, has been the US demand that Iran agree to put limits on the range of its ballistic missiles — an acute concern for Israel, which expended much of its missile interceptor stockpile shooting down Iranian ballistic missiles during last June’s 12-day war. Iran has balked at that and told the US it would only discuss its nuclear program. The US has not replied, leaving both sides at a dead end, the sources said.

Which leaves the so-called "sticking point" glaringly obvious: Washington is demanding that Tehran agree to unilateral disarmament, rendering itself defenseless against Israeli air and missile strikes. In other words, total capitulation - or else.

And about that supposedly "obliterated" Iranian nuclear program?

It’s not clear why Trump has since shifted his focus back to Iran’s nuclear program, which he said last summer had been “obliterated” by US strikes. But Iran has been trying to rebuild its nuclear sites even deeper underground, according to a person familiar with recent US intelligence on the issue, and has long resisted US pressure to halt its uranium enrichment. The regime has also barred the UN’s nuclear watchdog from inspecting its nuclear sites.

Like with Venezuela before - or even hearkening all the way back to Bush's Iraq invasion - the justifications for war will keep on shifting, until something sticks in a thinly veiled effort to manufacture consent.

Tucker Carlson has revealed that during the brief Iran-Israel war earlier this year, Israeli soldiers were barging into U.S. military meetings at the Pentagon, issuing demands, and telling American officers what to do.

He says Pentagon officials stood by in silence and is… pic.twitter.com/u5vhYwaOwI

— Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) October 2, 2025

...And then the pretext will soon after be forgotten about when the bombs fall.

As one commenter pointed out related the several regime change conflicts of the last couple decades: "Free Iran" means exactly what "Free Iraq," "Free Libya," and "Free Syria" meant. That is the material reality, however you try to spin it. Either you’re calling for another US-engineered destruction, or you’re so politically naive your opinion can be automatically disregarded.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 13:40

Mediocre 7Y Auction Tails Despite Solid Foreign Demand

After a solid 2Y, and a dismal 5Y auction, moments ago the Treasury completed the sale of the week's final coupon, and today's sale of $44BN in 7Y paper was appropriately enough, mediocre at best, not terrible, not great, in the parlance of our times.

The auction priced at a high yield of 4.018%, the first 4%+ yield since July, and up from 3.930% in December. It also tailed then 4.014% When Issued by 0.4bps. This was the 5th tail in the last 6 auctions.

The bid to cover of 2.454 dropped from 2.509 in December, and was the lowest since September; it was also well below the six auction average of 2.516.

The internals were a fraction better: Indirects took down 66.9%, up from 59.04% and above the six auction average of 61.8%. And with Directs awarded 22.2%, down sharply from 31.6% last month, Dealers were left holding 10.9%, up from 9.3% last month and above the recent average of 10.2%.

Overall this was a mediocre, tailing auction and while it could have been worse (foreign demand for example was still quite solid), it certainly could have been better. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 13:25

AG Paxton Announces Investigation Into H-1B Visa Abuse

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is probing the abuse of the H-1B visa program in the state, beginning with an investigation into three companies in North Texas, the attorney general’s office said in a statement on Jan. 28.

Paxton issued Civil Investigative Demands (CIDs) to companies suspected of fraudulent activity. CIDs are government requests for information in noncriminal investigations. They are issued before any formal complaint or lawsuit is filed against the entities.

“Reports have indicated that the businesses under investigation have likely engaged in illegal activity to scam the H-1B visa program by setting up sham companies featuring websites advertising nonexistent products or services to Texas consumers in order to fraudulently sponsor H-1B visas,” the office said.

For instance, one business allegedly listed a single-family home as its office address and an empty, unfinished building as its worksite address on its website, according to the statement.

The office alleged that the companies sponsored numerous H-1B visa applications over the past years without providing evidence that they delivered any of the advertised services or products.

On Sept. 19, President Donald Trump issued a proclamation that restricted the hiring of foreign workers under the H-1B program.

Under the new rules, businesses must pay $100,000 for any new H-1B petition to bring a foreign worker to the United States.

In the proclamation, Trump wrote that the abuse of the H-1B program constituted a “national security threat by discouraging Americans from pursuing careers in science and technology, risking American leadership in these fields.”

In its statement, Paxton’s office said the attorney general has demanded that companies hand over documents identifying all employees working under them, communications related to operations, financial statements, and records detailing the specific services and products they offer. The businesses being investigated were not named in the press release.

“Any criminal who attempts to scam the H-1B visa program and use ‘ghost offices’ or other fraudulent ploys should be prepared to face the full force of the law,” Paxton said.

“Abuse and fraud within these programs strip jobs and opportunities away from Texans. I will use every tool available to uproot and hold accountable any individual or company engaged in these fraudulent schemes. My office will continue to thoroughly review the H-1B visa program and always work to put the interests of Americans first.”

The H-1B visa program helps employers hire nonimmigrant workers and access business skills and abilities they cannot otherwise obtain from the U.S. workforce.

The program enables the hiring of foreign professionals in specialized fields, including engineering, technology, and medicine. Supporters of the program say H-1B visas are crucial to fill roles for which qualified American workers cannot be found.

Critics allege that H-1B and similar work visa programs are often misused to replace American workers with lower-wage foreign labor. They argue that the program does not always attract the most skilled candidates as intended.

Tightening H-1B Approvals

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce filed a lawsuit in October 2025 challenging the Trump administration’s $100,000 fee for H-1B petitions.

“The new $100,000 visa fee will make it cost-prohibitive for U.S. employers, especially start-ups and small and midsize businesses, to utilize the H-1B program, which was created by Congress expressly to ensure that American businesses of all sizes can access the global talent they need to grow their operations here in the U.S.,” said Neil Bradley, executive vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Meanwhile, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced more changes to the H-1B program in December.

Beginning on Feb. 26, the DHS will implement a “weighted selection process” instead of the current random lottery for approving visas, prioritizing higher-skilled and higher-paid foreign workers.

“The new weighted selection will better serve Congress’s intent for the H-1B program and strengthen America’s competitiveness by incentivizing American employers to petition for higher-paid, higher-skilled foreign workers,” said Matthew Tragesser, spokesperson for the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS).

“With these regulatory changes and others in the future, we will continue to update the H-1B program to help American businesses without allowing the abuse that was harming American workers.”

According to data from USCIS, during fiscal year 2025, which ran from Oct. 1, 2024, to Sept. 30, 2025, Amazon was the top beneficiary of H-1B employment approvals in the country, with 13,625 visa petitions approved by the government.

This was followed by Meta Platforms, Microsoft Corporation, and India-based Tata Consultancy Services, each with more than 6,000 approvals. Google and Apple received more than 5,000 approvals.

California had the highest number of H-1B approvals at 86,147. Texas ranked second with 41,571 beneficiaries.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 13:20

Worldcoin Spikes 40% As OpenAI Reportedly Plans Biometric X Rival

Authored by Brian Quarmby via Cointelegraph,

OpenAI-linked token Worldcoin spiked 40% on Wednesday following a report that the artificial intelligence firm is working on a bot-free social media platform that requires “proof of personhood.”  

According to a Tuesday Forbes report citing sources familiar with the matter, OpenAI is aiming to develop a “humans-only platform” as a point of difference from other social media services on the market. 

Still in its early stages, sources state that a small team of around 10 people is building the platform to compete with X, and that it has reportedly been in development since early 2025, according to tech news outlet The Verge.

Forbes’ sources claimed that any “proof of personhood” would likely be verified via Apple’s Face ID or the World Orb eyeball scanner, which has also been utilized as part of World, the blockchain and crypto project co-founded by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. 

The report coincided with a 40% price pump for Worldcoin to $0.63; however, the price has since pulled back to $0.54 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko data.

Amid a broader crypto downturn in the latter half of 2025, WLD has had a grim price performance, down almost 70% over the past 12 months. 

The World Orb, which has seen criticism over its implications for personal data privacy, scans a person’s face and their iris to verify that they are a unique human. It is a key part of onboarding genuine users to the WorldCoin ecosystem and helps establish a World ID.  

Worldcoin’s World Orb. Source: Cointelegraph

Details are sparse on how the reported social media platform could be integrated with OpenAI’s suite of products or potentially with WLD. It is believed, however, that OpenAI’s ChatGPT will be integrated to help users create content such as videos or photos. 

Altman has previously criticized bot activity on X and other social media platforms. Back in September, he said the current social media experience in general felt “fake” due to the sheer number of bot-like posts and comments.  

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 12:45

Shutdown Looms As Senate Dems Formally Blocks Govt Funding Bill

Update (1220ET): As expected, Senate Democrats have just formally blocked a package of government funding bills from advancing.

Democrats voted in unison against a procedural motion to advance the funding package. The motion, which required 60 votes to prevail, failed 45-55.

Eight Republicans joined all Democrats in voting against it, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.).

Thune was a late “no” vote and immediately entered a motion to reconsider the package to give him flexibility to bring it back to the floor soon. 

Democrats blocked the funding package, which includes six bills, because it includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security.

But with the government running out of money at the end of the day Friday, there is urgency to get a deal done to avert a partial shutdown.

The Hill reports that a source familiar with the discussions, said that while no agreement had been reached yet, the discussions were ongoing and moving in Democrats’ direction.

*  *  *

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and the White House are negotiating a framework to advance five of the six remaining fiscal 2026 funding bills, alongside a short-term measure to keep the Department of Homeland Security operating, according to Punchbowl News, citing people familiar with the discussions. The talks come as Congress once again barrels toward a potential government shutdown amid a volatile political fight over immigration enforcement.

Under the emerging framework, lawmakers would pass a temporary DHS funding patch to allow negotiations to continue over new limits on Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection as the agencies carry out President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown. Senate Republican leaders have urged Democrats to approve all six outstanding spending bills, a position Schumer has declined to accept.

Even if Schumer and the White House reach an agreement, a funding lapse over the weekend appears likely. The House, which is scheduled to return Monday, would still need to approve both the five-bill spending package and the DHS stopgap measure.

Easy money?

Senate Democrats on Wednesday rallied around a set of proposed reforms aimed at DHS and ICE operations. The proposals would tighten warrant requirements, establish a uniform code of conduct for federal officers, prohibit agents from wearing masks and require the use of body cameras.

The negotiations reflect the political pressure facing the White House after a series of violent incidents involving federal agents. Border czar Tom Homan, who was dispatched by the administration to Minnesota to take over operations from Border Patrol commander Gregory Bovino, held a closely watched press conference today as officials seek to defuse tensions following two fatal shootings involving federal agents in recent weeks.

Those shootings have intensified scrutiny of DHS operations and pushed Congress closer to another funding standoff. Democrats have signaled a willingness to force a shutdown if their demands are not met, marking a sharp shift from their posture during earlier funding fights.

"I don’t like shutdowns," said Sen. Angus King (I-ME), one of three members of the Democratic caucus who opposed the previous shutdown in a comment to Punchbowl. "But it was a matter of conscience. I didn’t want to be complicit with what these guys are doing."

To Democrats, the current confrontation carries both moral and political stakes. Party leaders see an opportunity to extract concessions as they perceive the White House to be negotiating from a position of weakness and as some Senate Republicans acknowledge the need for changes at DHS.

At the same time, Democratic unity is not assured. During a private caucus call Wednesday night, some House Democrats questioned whether Senate leaders would hold firm, according to multiple people on the call. Others raised concerns about whether the proposed reforms would meaningfully rein in ICE’s conduct.

Some progressives have pushed for more sweeping action. Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) told the outlet that Democrats should be using the moment to “defund and abolish” ICE.

The Senate is scheduled to hold its first procedural vote on the six-bill funding package at 11:30 a.m. To strip DHS funding from the broader package, Democrats would first need to provide votes to advance the legislation. Whether an agreement is reached before that vote remains uncertain.

The risks extend to both parties. House Republicans remain divided, and conservative members have warned they oppose reopening negotiations on DHS funding. Meanwhile, Senate Democrats are under pressure from their base to confront the administration forcefully, particularly following the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis.

The White House has offered alternative paths for enacting DHS reforms, including executive actions or separate legislation. Democratic leaders have rejected those options, insisting the changes be written directly into the DHS appropriations bill. Unlike previous shutdown fights, Democrats have limited their demands to reforms they believe Republicans could realistically accept.

Still, GOP resistance remains strong. Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) said Republicans would not agree to provisions that impede enforcement of the administration’s immigration agenda.

"The American people wanted the president to enforce law and order," Mullin said. "ICE is doing their job."

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 12:25

TechnoFEDalism

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

The US Federal Reserve’s rate setting committee left the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% with the Statement noting that “economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace...the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.” The decision was taken by a 10-2 vote, with Trump appointee Stephen Miran and Fed Chair hopeful Christopher Waller both dissenting in favor of a 25bp cut. The Bank of Canada, also meeting to set policy rates, similarly opted to keep rates unchanged at 2.25%. Our full review of the FOMC decision is available here, and the BOC decision here.

2 and 10-year Treasury yields were little changed on the day and equities were mixed. Fed-dated OIS saw the market-implied future path of the Fed Funds rate lift by 2-4bps over the remainder of the year. The S&P500 closed virtually flat after briefly hitting 7000 intraday and the NASDAQ eked out a 0.24% gain. The dollar found some support after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that the US was still committed to the strong dollar policy and was “absolutely not” intervening in currency markets to support the value of the Japanese Yen. USDJPY closed 0.79% higher on the day, but has resumed selling in early trade this morning.

In his press conference Powell reiterated that some recent data suggested that the labor market has stabilized, despite the very low rate of hiring in the USA. He also said that the outlook for economic activity had “clearly improved” since the last meeting, and that that would matter for labour demand and employment over time. Powell characterized the labor market as exhibiting weak demand but that this was offset by weak supply as labor force growth was constrained by lower immigration and labor force participation. This is a variation on the “no hire, no fire” meme.

When asked why he attended a Supreme Court hearing on Lisa Cook’s case and to respond to a comment by Scott Bessent that his attendance was “political” Powell declined to answer the latter and said that he believed that the court case was perhaps the most important in the Fed’s 113-year history. In that context, he said he believed it would be difficult to explain why he didn’t attend. Having clearly anticipated this line of questioning, he came armed with a precedent – pointing out that Paul Volcker similarly attended a Supreme Court hearing in 1985.

Powell also dead-batted questions about his January 11th press conference where he sensationally suggested that grand jury subpoenas issued by the Department of Justice were politically motivated, and also declined to answer questions on whether he would choose to remain a Fed Governor after his term as Chairman expires in May.

This was Powell at his most technocratic. With midterm elections looming later in the year, and the President poised to gain greater control of the FOMC from May onwards, Powell may have been keen to strike a blow for establishment views on formulaic policy making where monetary policy is adjusted according to a recipe (reaction function) with 2% inflation and maximum employment the desired outputs. Conversely, Miran’s decision to vote for a cut of only 25bp (after voting for 50 at the three previous meetings) might be interpreted as an attempt to lower the temperature between the White House and the central bank, before resuming hostilities later in the year when Powell is replaced as Chair.

Obviously, paint-by-numbers inflation targeting is the virtual antithesis of the administration’s view that monetary policy should work in concert with other tools to achieve the domestic and foreign policy goals of the United States. How can the US Dollar, capital markets or Fed swaplines be mobilized to support US interests if those tools are gatekept by independent technocrats pursuing a much narrower definition of the national interest? How can the flow of credit be effectively diverted to priority industries (semiconductors, energy, defence etc) while interest rates are set dispassionately and indiscriminately across the entire economy? As some administration figures may be happy to point out, that is not how things work in China.

Under such circumstances where the central bank cannot be brought to heel, it seems logical to expect increased subordination through fiscal dominance and other actions of the US Treasury to assert control over tools of monetary policy. Stablecoins is one such area that we have written about previously.

While rates and FX markets were focused on the Fed, gold and silver are again resetting all-time highs. Silver is up 1% at time of writing to $117.85/oz. Gold has busted through the $5500/oz level and has now risen more than $500/oz over the last four days. With Brent crude prices also up 0.56% to $68.78/bbl this morning, it would seem that geopolitics is again a major influence on these moves (along with the weaker dollar).

Donald Trump took to Truth Social overnight to warn Iran to “make a deal”. His post said that a “massive armada” led by the USS Abraham Lincoln was headed to the region – a fleet larger than the one deployed to the Caribbean to conduct operations again Venezuela – and that “the next attack will be far worse” than earlier US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Clearly, the Iran issue is not going away and the price action in energy and metals is telling us that this is a market that will continue to move on geopolitical stimuli. Technocratic approaches to trading it based on economic variables like GDP, employment and inflation are much more risk-laden than they used to be.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 12:05

Goldman Says "Good Opportunity To Buy Dip" In Obesity Drug Stocks

Novo Nordisk shares in Europe appear to be forming a base after a 5.5-month bottoming process, following a mid-2024 peak and a subsequent 71% collapse.

Goldman analyst Faris Mourad is telling clients this week that "obesity drugs narrative sentiment is on the rise" and "it's an opportunity to buy the dip."

Mourad explained:

The relative performance of the Obesity Drugs basket (GSHLCBMI) to the S&P 500 (SPX) is lagging its narrative sentiment. The basket is down -2 standard deviations today and we think it's a good opportunity to buy the dip.

We flagged the obesity drug theme yesterday: We like going long our global obesity drugs basket (GSHLCBMI) since it provides exposure to the leading companies (LLY and NVO) as well as potential emerging leaders in this space: market is moving beyond the dominance of a few key players, with new entrants and diverse therapeutic approaches intensifying competition. Large pharmaceutical companies are actively engaging in M&A and licensing deals to replenish pipelines and acquire next-generation obesity assets, as evidenced by Pfizer's acquisition of Metsera and Roche's deal with Zealand Pharma in late 2025.

We notice equity investors are also focused on the industries that could face challenges as obesity drugs become more popular. We consider a handful at risk: junk foods, alcohol, tobacco, and health care companies that may be impacted in the medical tech, tools, services, and managed care space. We created a basket that combines all: global unhealthy lifestyle (GSCBUHLT) that can trade $200m in one day at 10% of volume.

Our research team highlights 2026 as a pivotal year for the development of obesity market, with the launch of NVO's Wegovy pill (approved by the FDA in late Dec25 and expected commercial rollout in early 2026) and Lilly's Orforglipron (expected FDA approval in 2026), together with the initial unlock of the Medicare population, potentially significantly increasing the addressable population for obesity medications. We expect the focus in the first half of the year to be on the launch dynamics for the Wegovy pill and orforglipron, with sales estimates 25-35% ahead of company consensus for 2027-29. That being said: street consensus estimates show no changes to 2026 and 2027 revenues driven by Oral obesity drugs and the group traded below earnings expectations for the majority of the last year.

GS research is significantly ahead of consensus on the revenue potential of oral Wegovy:

Meanwhile street consensus estimates show no changes to 2026 and 2027 revenues driven by Oral obesity drugs:

Obesity drugs traded below earnings expectations for the majority of the last year:

Related:

• Novo Undercuts Lilly's Obesity Drug Price, Now Cheaper Than Car Payment

• Medicare Secures 71% Price Cut On Novo's Anti-Obesity Drug As Part Of Broad Affordability Push

• Novo Nordisk Plunges After Ozempic Pill Fails Alzheimer's Trials - Shares Suffer Worst Year Ever

• Goldman, UBS React To Novo Nordisk Axing 9,000 Jobs, Slashing Guidance Amid GLP-1 Headwinds

• "Much-Needed Win": Novo Shares Jump Most In Nearly Two Years After US Approval Of Wegovy Obesity Pill

Will 2026 be a rebound here for Novo?

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 11:45

EU Formally Designates IRGC A Terrorist Group, Granting Trump Political Cover

Update(1034ET): As expected, it happened in a meeting of top EU leaders on Thursday:

EU foreign ministers agreed Thursday to designate Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a "terrorist" group, the bloc's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said.

"Any regime that kills thousands of its own people is working toward its own demise," she said.

One byproduct, (or perhaps the intent?) is that this will give President Trump more political cover if he decides to strike Iran. A 'narrative' is taking shape, despite the internal protests having long dissipated. 

Repression cannot go unanswered.

EU Foreign Ministers just took the decisive step of designating Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organisation.

Any regime that kills thousands of its own people is working toward its own demise.

— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) January 29, 2026

* * *

The European Union may be on the verge of taking a step it has long avoided: formally branding Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a terrorist organization. This as France and Spain, previously the bloc's vocal key holdouts, abruptly signaled a change of heart.

Paris and Madrid's reversal injects new momentum into what has so far been a largely symbolic but politically explosive move, one Brussels has repeatedly delayed despite mounting pressure. The timing of this impending potential change could signal that Europe is collectively ready to sign off on President Trump's potential new military attacks on the Islamic Republic. It will make it 'legally' easier to wage war.

via ispionline

Europe has long been more restrained when it comes to US military actions abroad, but the Jan.3rd attack on Venezuela and forced removal of longtime President Maduro resulted in a muted EU response, which was widely interpreted as quiet approval. So for the EU, its leaders might be fine with Tehran being targeted next.

On Wednesday, just one day before EU foreign ministers are scheduled to convene in Brussels to debate the issue, the Elysée announced its change in thinking in the following:

"France supports the designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the European list of terrorist organizations."

The IRGC stands accused by the West of directing Iran's crackdown of domestic unrest, after economic-driven protests took over town and city streets this month. 

Thousands died, but Iran officials have pointed to armed saboteurs being mixed in among the peaceful demonstrators, leading to mayhem and a high death toll.

The United States, Canada, and Australia have already blacklisted the IRGC, while Germany and the Netherlands have for years pressed the EU to follow suit. Italy has also shifted its position earlier this week related to the recent protests.

Importantly, the US had branded Maduro as head of a 'terrorist organization' (the so-called Cartel of the Suns, which had a dubious existence) just before launching regime change action against him, resulting in him facing federal charges in New York. 

The IRGC being branded as such in Europe would also aid in Washington's case for war against Iran, given the organization reports directly to the Ayatollah, and is effectively the most important military-security group at the top of the command chain.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 10:34

Venezuela Signals Historic Energy Reset As Oil Laws Open To Foreign Capital

Authored by Cyril Widdershoven via oilprice.com,

• Venezuela is moving to overhaul its hydrocarbons law, opening the door to deeper foreign and private-sector participation.

• The reforms introduce far more flexible operating and fiscal structures, allowing private and mixed companies to take on operational control.

• If paired with sanctions relief, the changes could mark a true reopening of Venezuela’s oil sector, shifting policy from ideological rigidity toward pragmatic, investment-led recovery.

Venezuela is edging toward what could become the most consequential energy shift in a generation. Interim President Delcy Rodriguez reportedly met with senior international oil executives this week at a PDVSA facility, as the government opens consultations on a partial reform of the country’s Organic Hydrocarbons Law.

The proposed changes, now moving through Venezuela’s National Assembly, would fundamentally reshape the fiscal and contractual rules governing the country’s oil and gas sectors.

While the state would retain sovereignty over Venezuela’s oil, highlighting how the reform can foster growth and attract investment can inspire confidence among industry professionals and investors.

If approved, the new framework would allow external operators to become more deeply involved in the production process than ever before, potentially increasing foreign investment and modernizing Venezuela’s oil industry.

One of the reform’s most significant shifts is an expansion of who can operate upstream. It would allow mixed enterprises, as well as private Venezuelan-domiciled companies, to work in tandem with state authorities on contracted projects.

In essence, this would create a dual-track system, one more aligned with the financial realities of Venezuela’s oil industry. Rather than forcing all investment projects into a single joint-venture model, the government would gain more flexibility to structure deals around the realities of capital requirements.

Capital-intensive developments, including pipeline repairs, which have been neglected for many years, could finally attract the scale of private investment that they so desperately require.

The intent of the interim administration is clear. Venezuela is moving away from the inflexible investment framework that has long constrained the sector.

Perhaps even more important, however, is how the reform plans to tackle control dynamics. State-owned companies and their subsidiaries would be permitted to transfer operational responsibility to private partners by contract, either full or in part. While this may appear as a minor technical change, it represents a substantial shift in the government’s policy.

For years, Venezuela’s joint-venture system has been defined by a distinct structural rigidity. External partners have been allowed to supply capital and expertise, but operational control remained tightly held within state entities. The proposed reforms would alter that long-standing balance, giving space for hybrid operating models that are better suited to the complex nature of oil projects and to both their construction and financing.

The royalties would remain capped at 30%, but the actual rate will be set project-by-project. A new Integrated Hydrocarbons Tax will apply at up to 15% of gross income, but again would be adjusted depending on the demands of each project.

The government is also looking to address some of the financial bottlenecks that have historically worried international investors. Minority partners would not only be allowed to open and manage bank accounts in any currency or jurisdiction, but also to directly market their share of production.

Direct commercialisation improves cash-flow visibility, while offshore banking flexibility removes the friction of getting foreign direct investment into Venezuelan ventures. New project contracts will also include expanded dispute-resolution mechanisms. In essence, removing the additional layers of complications that have previously slowed or complicated arbitration agreements.

The reforms aim to make Venezuelan projects easier to finance and to protect external capital, emphasizing that stability and sanctions reform are essential for success, reassuring policymakers and investors.

The proposed changes in Rodriguez’s government acknowledge that reviving the country’s oil sector requires long-term investment, which can reassure investors and industry stakeholders of sustained commitment.

Considering the scale and scope of the large upstream developments and infrastructure projects that Venezuela’s oil industry will require to start seeing consistent increases in production, investment horizons have to be widened. The reforms are seeking to do precisely that.

While the reforms to the bill are still navigating Venezuela’s legislative process, for international investors, the intention behind them is encouraging. They represent a substantial strategic pivot, moving Venezuela’s oil industry away from the constraints of ideology and toward a programme of pragmatic partnership.

Venezuela needs investment, and that investment will come from partnerships that have the flexibility to invest in the ways and at the scale they need.

Of course, the success of the reforms will hinge on broader sanctions reform and stabilisation of the region’s geopolitical situation. But at the legislative level, Venezuela seems to be building a framework to say what it has not said clearly in years: the door is open again, and this time, the terms are negotiable.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 10:10

US Factory Orders Surged In November

While sentiment is sagging to multi-year lows, 'hard' data is pushing growth forecasts higher (GDPNOW) and holding stocks at record highs.

This morning we get a fresh glimpse at America's manufacturing segment - hard data - with US Factory Orders (admittedly for November) surging 2.7% MoM (significantly better than the +1.6% MoM expected), bouncing strongly from the 1.3% MoM decline in October. 

This dragged orders up 5.4% year-over-year...

Source: Bloomberg

This was the biggest monthly advance since May 2025.

Core Orders (ex transportation) rose 0.2% MoM, also rebounding from a 0.1% MoM decline in October...

Source: Bloomberg

The final print for Durable Goods Orders were all in line with the flash prints.

Of course, this data remains significantly stale (and we face the possibility of another government shutdown to screw things up again), but overall, the trend is your friend (and supported by strong jobless claims data).

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 10:06