Mandelson Resigns From House Of Lords Over 'Embarrassing' Epstein Scandal

Update(1023ET): One welcome immediate repercussion to the fresh Epstein dump of millions of files is that things have finally started happening in terms of a real domino effect in elite circles...

Lord Mandelson, ex-ambassador to U.S., resigns from Labour over Epstein.

Still, all of this might be happening slower than what one might want to see, but it's something when for example NPR is actually doing segments on the Epstein scandals surrounding Bill Gates and others, for example.

On Mandelson, to review one key aspect to what we detail below, he gave Jeffrey Epstein advance notice of a €500bn bailout to save the Euro, messaging Epstein about the bailout on the evening of May 9, 2010 - after which it was formally announced the following morning.

Then Labour's Business Secretary had forwarded No. 10 documents on economic assessments, asset sales, an EU bailout tip - among other interactions with his "pal". To review, something big was expected amid the "embarrassing" scandal and confirmation of corrupt insider wrongdoing: 

By Sunday, a shocked Mandelson (he was not expecting the release) has quit the Labour party, citing a desire to prevent “further embarrassment”. Labour says that disciplinary action was already “under way”. By phone that night, the grandson of the party grandee Herbert Morrison tells me of his decision it “wasn’t easy”, but he feels “better for it as I need to reset”.

His resignation might be the start of further legal action, as MPs are already lobbying that he never be able to return to government or positions of power:

Baroness Harriet Harman, who was leader of the Commons when Lord Mandelson was business secretary, says Mandelson has "cast a stain over not just this government, but over politics as a whole".

She tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "I'm sure the government are in absolutely no doubt about the seriousness of it, and will be taking action and Peter Mandelson will be held accountable."

* * *

Former U.K. Cabinet minister Peter Mandelson - who was fired last September from his new role as ambassador to the United States due to his ties to Jeffrey Epstein - is facing mounting political and legal pressure following disclosures that he may have shared market-sensitive government information with Epstein during the global financial crisis.

Keir Starmer, right, with Peter Mandelson, left. The prime minister is likely to face renewed questions over his judgment in appointing Mandelson as US ambassador.

Documents released Friday by the U.S. Department of Justice as part of the so-called Epstein files appear to show that Mandelson, then business secretary in the Labour government of Prime Minister Gordon Brown, forwarded confidential policy discussions and draft plans to the disgraced financier while the government was grappling with the collapse of global credit markets.

As the Guardian notes, emails forwarded to Epstein from the very top of the UK government include:

• A confidential UK government document outlining £20bn in asset sales.
• Mandelson claiming he was “trying hard” to change government policy on bankers’ bonuses.
• An imminent bailout package for the euro the day before it was announced in 2010.
• A suggestion that the JPMorgan boss “mildly threaten” the chancellor.
• Epstein asked Mandelson to confirm a €500bn bailout – which the then business secretary said would be announced that evening. The following day, Mandelson also appeared to give Epstein an early tipoff about Gordon Brown’s resignation.

The revelations have prompted Prime Minister Keir Starmer to order an investigation by the cabinet secretary and to demand that Mandelson resign from the House of Lords. Brown has separately asked the cabinet secretary, Chris Wormald, to investigate the alleged disclosures.

Opposition parties have escalated the matter further. The Scottish National Party and Reform UK have reported Mandelson to police, alleging misconduct in a public office. Emily Thornberry, Labour’s chair of the foreign affairs select committee, said the allegations should be examined as a potential criminal matter.

The Metropolitan Police confirmed it had received several reports relating to alleged misconduct and was assessing whether they meet the threshold for a criminal investigation.

“The reports will all be reviewed to determine if they meet the criminal threshold for investigation,” said Commander Ella Marriott. “As with any matter, if new and relevant information is brought to our attention we will assess it, and investigate as appropriate.”

Sensitive Information Shared

According to the disclosures, emails forwarded to Epstein from senior levels of the British government included a confidential document outlining £20 billion in potential asset sales, discussions about changing policy on bankers’ bonuses, details of an imminent eurozone bailout package ahead of its public announcement in 2010, and references to pressuring the chancellor through senior banking executives.

In one email sent on June 13, 2009, Nick Butler, then a special adviser to Brown, circulated a memo detailing policy measures under consideration and suggesting that the government had £20 billion in saleable assets. Mandelson forwarded the message to Epstein, writing, “Interesting note that’s gone to the PM.”

Epstein replied asking, “what salable (sic) assets?” A response from a redacted email address stated: “Land, property I guess.” Four months later, the government announced plans to sell surplus real estate in a bid to raise £16 billion.

Butler said he was considering reporting the matter to police. “We worked on the basis of trust, which allowed us to float ideas,” he told the Times. “I am disgusted by the breach of trust, presumably intended to give Epstein the chance to make money.”

Another email from May 9, 2010 shows Epstein asking Mandelson to confirm a €500 billion eurozone bailout, which Mandelson indicated would be announced that evening. The following day, Mandelson appeared to give Epstein advance notice of Brown’s impending resignation.

"he was a great FX trader" https://t.co/1U0adiK71z

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 2, 2026

In separate correspondence days later, Epstein asked whether JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon should contact the chancellor, Alistair Darling. Mandelson replied that Dimon should “mildly threaten” him.

BBC economics editor Faisal Islam said he understood from discussions with Darling that such calls from senior bankers, including Dimon, did subsequently take place.

Financial Ties Under Question

The disclosures have also revived questions about Mandelson’s financial relationship with Epstein. Documents released earlier this week suggest that Epstein paid a total of $75,000 into bank accounts of which Mandelson, then a Labour MP, was believed to be a beneficiary. It is also alleged that Epstein sent £10,000 in September 2009 to Mandelson’s partner—now his husband—Reinaldo Avila da Silva, to help fund an osteopathy course and other expenses.

A former adviser described Mandelson’s conduct to the Guardian as “treacherous,” adding: “You can imagine the sense of betrayal that those of us who worked every hour of the day during that crisis are feeling.”

Brown said he had previously asked the cabinet secretary to investigate potential leaks in September but was told there was insufficient evidence at the time. “This is shocking new information that has come to light,” Brown said Monday, calling for “a wider and more intensive enquiry” into the disclosure of government papers during the crisis.

Political Fallout

Starmer, who has no direct authority to strip Mandelson of his peerage, is facing renewed scrutiny over his decision to appoint Mandelson as U.S. ambassador and his proximity to senior Labour figures, including chief of staff Morgan McSweeney and Health Secretary Wes Streeting. Mandelson resigned his Labour Party membership on Sunday.

Downing Street has written to the House of Lords authorities urging urgent reform of disciplinary procedures to allow for the removal of peers in cases of serious misconduct. A Lords source said there is currently little guidance on how such reforms would be implemented, despite their inclusion in Labour’s manifesto.

Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones told Parliament that “no government minister of any political party should have, nor ever should behave in this way,” and suggested Mandelson may have misrepresented his interests before taking up his ambassadorial role. “When someone lies in their declaration of interests, there must be a consequence,” Jones said.

There is no modern precedent for removing an individual from the House of Lords, a step that would require primary legislation. The last such action occurred during the First World War, when a group of peers aligned with Britain’s enemies were stripped of their titles.

No timetable has been set for the Cabinet Office review, and Downing Street has not confirmed whether its findings will be made public. The inquiry may involve examining archived government documents and interviewing Mandelson and other senior officials who served in Downing Street during the period in question.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 10:23

Pepsi Cuts Some Prices As Much As 15% As K-Shaped Economy Squeezes Consumers

Readers already know the K-shaped economy is not going anywhere, even as the Trump administration attempts to correct the imbalance ahead of the midterms. For the junk-food-hungry U.S. consumer, there was a small win on Tuesday morning.

PepsiCo announced it will cut prices by 15% on snack brands like Lay's and Doritos to restore affordability and help revive sales.

"PepsiCo is taking a meaningful step to lower the price on many of our most loved snacks by up to nearly 15%. This includes iconic favorites like Lay's, Doritos, Cheetos, Tostitos and more," PepsiCo wrote in a statement.

Rachel Ferdinando, CEO, PepsiCo Foods U.S., said her team has spent the "past year listening closely to consumers, and they've told us they're feeling the strain" from elevated processed food prices.

"Lowering the suggested retail price reflects our commitment to help reduce the pressure where we can. Because people shouldn't have to choose between great taste and staying within their budget," Ferdinando said.

The announcement comes just days before the Super Bowl this weekend, as consumers rush to supermarkets to stock up on junk food for the big game, with this year's main event featuring the Seattle Seahawks against the New England Patriots.

We must note, and can't help but wonder, whether activist investor Elliott Investment Management, which built a $4 billion position in the stock and aimed to overhaul PepsiCo toward greater affordability in late 2025, had any say in the latest decision to trim prices ahead of the Super Bowl.

Pepsi shares were marginally higher in premarket trading in New York. Shares remain -20% from their peak, when they nearly topped $200 per share in mid-2023.

Bloomberg noted that PepsiCo has accelerated its cost-reduction efforts, including reducing headcount, closing three plants, and consolidating several manufacturing lines, with "additional actions planned for the near future." It also announced a product portfolio that would be slashed by 20% in the coming months.

It really does seem like Paul Singer's team at Elliott is busy at work with PepsiCo...

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 10:00

Customers, Don't Expect Electric Bill Relief In 2026: "The Cake Is Baked"

By Robert Walton of UtilityDive,

Rising energy demand, inflation, grid investment, extreme weather and volatile fuel costs are increasing the cost of electricity faster than many households can keep up, and there are no easy fixes, experts say.

Mitigating the problem would require threading a needle of policy alternatives, but even with the right policies, it will take time to reduce customer energy burdens. The U.S. Energy Information Administration puts the national average residential price per kilowatt hour in 2026 at 18 cents, up approximately 37% from 2020.

“I don’t see hidden costs that can be suddenly squeezed out of the system,” said Ray Gifford, managing partner of Wilkinson Barker Knauer’s Denver office and former chair of the Colorado Public Utilities Commission. “You are talking about an industry where most of the costs are fixed, and the assets are long-lived.”

Energy affordability has recently become politically salient, but for many low-income people, “the energy affordability crisis is not new,” said Joe Daniel, a principal on the Rocky Mountain Institute’s carbon free electricity team.

In 2017, 25% of all U.S. households — more than 30 million — faced a high energy burden, defined as spending more than 6% of income on energy bills, according to a report from the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy. For the poorest, it can be much higher. Households making less than 30% of area median income paid about 11% of their income for electricity alone, according to data from the Department of Energy covering the years 2018 to 2022. 

The Department of Energy’s Low-Income Energy Affordability Data Tool shows households’ energy burden in the lower 48 states and Washington, D.C. The data is based on the American Community Survey 5-year Estimates for 2018-2022. Retrieved from Department of Energy.

“What is new is that because electricity prices have outpaced inflation, and, more importantly, dramatically outpaced wages, moderate- and middle-income families are starting to feel the squeeze,” Daniel said.

Between December 2023 and June 2025, household energy arrearages rose by about 31%, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association. Forced disconnections for nonpayment are also rising, from 3 million in 2023 to 3.5 million in 2024 and potentially 4 million in 2025, it said.

The increases in electricity prices have not been felt evenly across the country, and the reasons for their rise also vary by region. Still, residential rates have risen faster than those for commercial and industrial customers, and the prices charged by investor-owned utilities are higher and have risen faster than those charged by public power utilities, raising pressure on regulators and elected officials to try to rein in costs.

At least six states introduced legislation last year to limit utilities’ return on equity. California’s Public Utilities Commission recently lowered utilities’ ROE in that state by 0.3 percentage points. And newly elected New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill used her first day in office to issue executive orders seeking to freeze electricity cost increases and direct regulators to “modernize” the electric utility business model by making profits “less dependent on capital spending.”

Investors are spooked. Jefferies reported “considerable inbound concern from investors of all types” in January, ahead of Sherrill’s inauguration, related to the anticipated freeze.

But some consumer advocates question whether actions taken now will be too little, too late.

“They’re freezing rates at the highest they’ve ever been,” said Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association.

Low-income customers are “continually falling behind,” and utilities “spend considerable resources trying to collect,” he said. “I don’t think it works, especially as electricity gets more and more expensive, going up faster than incomes.”

Jay Griffin, a former utility regulator and executive chair for the Regulatory Assistance Project, recently wrote that utility business model reform “isn’t just an abstract policy debate, it’s a practical necessity.”

“By rewarding capital investment over outcomes, the model encourages utilities to ‘spend money to make money,’ while discouraging non-capital solutions like demand management and distributed energy resources,” he said. “This model creates risk for customers and investors alike.”

The electric utility sector says it is working to address affordability issues.

Last year, investor-owned utilities allocated about $7 billion to support customer programs, according to their trade group, the Edison Electric Institute. Those efforts included energy audits and weatherization education, usage-reduction programs for low-income households, bill assistance and payment plans, relief programs and referrals for community support.

President Donald Trump takes the stage to speak during a rally at the Horizon Events Center on Jan. 27, 2026, in Clive, Iowa.  As a candidate, Trump promised to slash energy prices, including for electricity. Win McNamee via Getty Images

“As demand grows in our evolving economy, we will continue building on our long track record of delivering customer savings and supporting families facing financial hardships,” EEI said in an emailed statement.

Rising demand — does it hurt or help? 

The reasons for electricity price inflation are myriad and the mechanisms for determining price depend on the market, making it hard to generalize across the entire U.S. Grid investments, rising material and labor costs and natural disasters all play a role, but perhaps the issue that has attracted the most attention is that of large-load data centers and their unprecedented demands for power.

After decades of stagnant growth, the EIA expects demand from the commercial and industrial sectors to grow U.S. electricity consumption by 1% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, “marking the first four years of consecutive growth since 2005–07, and the strongest four-year period of growth since the turn of the century.”

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Alphabet and Google CEO Sundar Pichai lead a panel at the Google Midlothian Data Center on Nov. 14, 2025, in Midlothian, Texas. Data centers are driving demand growth after years of stagnation.  Ron Jenkins via Getty Images

Looking further out, the Bank of America Institute projects demand to rise at a 2.5% compound annual rate through 2035. It attributes the growth to not just data centers, but also building electrification, industrial growth and electric vehicles.

Aggressive load forecasts have helped drive capacity prices to new highs in the PJM Interconnection, the largest grid operator in the country. Data center load accounted for $6.5 billion, or 40%, of the $16.4 billion in costs from the PJM Interconnection’s December capacity auction, according to the grid operator’s independent market monitor.

“Generally speaking, the higher the demand, the higher the prices go,” said Marc Brown, the Consumer Energy Alliance’s executive director of Northeast.

But some research has found that growing demand — from large loads as well as consumer electrification efforts — can also be a grid asset. A study released over the summer from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory concluded that load growth helped depress electricity prices over the past five years, and states with the largest price increases typically featured shrinking customer loads.

“It remains unclear whether broader, sustained load growth will increase long-run average costs and prices,” the researchers said. “In some cases, spikes in load growth can result in significant, near-term retail price increases.”

RMI’s Daniel said higher throughput on the grid can help to lower rates by spreading costs over a broader customer base, and flexible demand can be used to address grid stress and peak loads.

“Done poorly or done correctly, it has the capability of dramatically impacting rates and bills,” he said.

Gifford also said that load growth has the potential to benefit the grid, but only under the right circumstances.

“Load growth, if allocated and planned for properly, can lower per-unit costs to customers on the [transmission and distribution] and even generation side,” Gifford said. But the impacts would take some time to materialize.

A lack of competition in transmission and distribution

Experts say transmission and distribution costs are another major driver of rising consumer bills.

“Some of that is because it’s an old grid that needs to get replaced,” said said RMI’s Daniel. “And because of inflation and supply chain issues, the costs to replace an aging grid have gone up.”

Producer price index figures from November show copper wire and cable, as well as switchgear, costs were all up more than 11% year over year and about 60% from 2020. Tariffs, inflation and supply-chain issues have also impacted key components like aluminum, transformers and turbines. 

But many of the increases appearing on customer bills now are for infrastructure that was built over the past several years. And some argue the ROE model is incentivizing utilities and infrastructure owners and developers to build more expensively than necessary.

High-voltage power lines run along the electrical power grid on Jan. 14, 2026, in Miami, Fla. Transmission and distribution costs have risen in recent years.  Joe Raedle via Getty Images

There is a “regulatory gap in how transmission gets approved and then put on bills of utilities in parts of the country,” Daniel said. “We are building, essentially, the wrong type of transmission.”

Utilities are building local, supplemental projects “that undergo less scrutiny and still deliver a high rate of return, instead of the larger transmission projects that deliver on affordability and reliability,” he said. A 2024 RMI report, for instance, found that in New England, annual spending on local transmission projects increased eightfold from 2016, to nearly $800 million in 2023. The Berkeley Lab study found that overall, investor-owned utilities’ inflation-adjusted spending on distribution and transmission increased from 2019 to 2024 while generation costs declined.

Paul Cicio, chair of the Electricity Transmission Competition Coalition and president of the Industrial Energy Consumers of America, said the fault lies with regulators.

In 2011, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued Order 1000, which requires large transmission projects be subject to competitive bidding. But it made an exception for projects necessary for short-term reliability.

The result, Cicio said, was that just 5% of transmission projects are now being competitively bid. The “loophole” was supposed to be closed in 2024 with FERC Order 1920, but the order did not include ratepayer cost containment provisions, he added.

“FERC needs to close that loophole and require that these projects are competitively bid between utilities,” Cicio said. “Affordability is becoming a national political issue. ... Electricity costs are now on everybody’s radar.”

Utilities have spent almost $154 billion annually on transmission investments in the last five years, said Cicio, “but that’s only the initial cost.”

When FERC incentives and financing charges are factored in, the cost to consumers winds up being almost $1.8 trillion on transmission in the last five years, he noted.

“These are massive amounts of layered-in dollars, and consumers are on the hook,” Cicio said. “The cake is baked.”

Storms and wildfires require grid upgrades

Industry sources and grid planners say that in addition to building out transmission and distribution, utilities also have to harden the grid in the face of more destructive storms and wildfires. 

Last year, U.S. residents lost more power than any year in the previous decade, according to the EIA, with hurricanes a leading cause. The annual average of 11 hours of electricity interruptions was nearly double the annual average of the last 10 years, it said.

On top of the costs of physical grid hardening, the cost of insurance also contributes to higher bills.

In California, which has some of the highest electricity prices in the country, wildfire mitigation efforts cost ratepayers $27 billion between 2019 and 2023, with 40% of that coming from insurance costs, according to the World Resources Institute.

A damaged utility pole is seen as people walk across a makeshift bridge in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene flooding on Oct. 8, 2024, in Bat Cave, N.C. Storms and wildfires require costly grid repaids and upgrades. Mario Tama via Getty Images The cost of decarbonization

State policies driving decarbonization can also lead to higher prices, some say.

The Berkeley Lab report linked price increases in recent years to net metered behind-the-meter solar and renewable portfolio standard programs. 

States with RPS programs that called for new supplies in the last five years increased retail electricity prices by about 0.4 cents/kWh, the study said. It also found, however, that electricity prices were unaffected by “market-based” utility-scale renewable energy projects built outside of RPS mandates.

Those and other findings are driving some states to rethink their policies. Pennsylvania Republicans forced the state to withdraw from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative last year, for instance, over affordability concerns. 

“Programs like RGGI have seen pretty significant [cost] increases,” said Brown from the Consumer Energy Alliance. Program revenues could be returned to consumers, or expenses capped, he said.

Gifford said states with carbon reduction deadlines may need to rapidly to squeeze out a final 20% of carbon-emitting resources.

“You could imagine some of those states reconsidering those mandates or creating a political face-saving way to back off,” he said. “But some of those transition costs are baked in already.”

LNG exports contribute to volatile gas prices

Natural gas prices are one of the biggest determinants of power prices because gas generators tend to set the marginal price of electricity in organized markets, and vertically integrated utilities directly pass fuel costs on to consumers.

The EIA expects the spot price of natural gas at Henry Hub to go down this year by 2% from 2025 before rising again in 2027.

“Natural gas prices increase in our forecast because growth in demand — led by expanding liquefied natural gas exports and more natural gas consumption in the electric power sector — will outpace production growth,” it said.

The advocacy group Public Citizen published a report in December arguing the Trump administration’s policies to increase liquefied natural gas exports are driving higher fuel costs and volatility, and, ultimately, higher electricity bills. Under President Trump, DOE has worked to aggressively increase exports, which the agency says are approximately 25% above 2024 levels.

An average U.S. household paid over $124 more on its utility bills in the first nine months of 2025 than in the same period a year earlier due to rising natural gas prices, according to the report.

“And the driver of this, that everyone in the industry acknowledges, is overwhelmingly record LNG exports that are just getting bigger and bigger,” said Tyson Slocum, director of Public Citizen’s energy program.

Eight U.S. LNG export facilities now use more natural gas than all 74 million domestic gas utility household consumers, he said, adding: “That’s madness.”

“If you start to take steps to reduce demand by LNG exporters, it is going to have a downward effect on domestic gas prices,” Slocum said.

Customer support solutions

While experts and government agencies that track electricity prices see little hope for relief this year, some utilities and states are emphasizing bill assistance and other programs intended to help lower-income households in particular.

But NEADA’s Wolfe said the programs don’t go far enough, and changes are necessary, particularly for low-income customers. 

“There should be no charge,” he said, for a “base amount of electricity for very-low-income families.”

NEADA has also been critical of the Trump administration’s attitude toward the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, known as LIHEAP, a federally-funded, state-administered utility bill assistance program that has helped families afford power for decades. 

In April, the Department of Health and Human Services fired the entire LIHEAP program staff, and the administration proposed eliminating funding for the program in fiscal year 2026. The future of the program remains uncertain as lawmakers negotiate government funding. 

Even if LIHEAP survives, its budget would need to be increased “maybe 5-10 times in order to actually fully address the problem,” said Daniel. 

Utilities and governments should lean into low-income programs that directly provide energy assistance and support, he said.

Fewer unpaid bills means fewer utility write-offs, which ultimately are paid by all customers.

Those programs “tend to be far more cost-effective than we used to think,” he said, and “actually could drive down rates and bills for everybody.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 09:40

Iran Says US Carrier Has Retreated Near Yemen, Opening Door To Diplomacy 

Iran's Fars news has said that the US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln has retreated near Yemen, opening room for the pursuit of diplomacy in hopes of staving off military confrontation between Washington and Tehran.

The report says that the large nuclear-powered carrier had "withdrawn" about 1,400 kilometers (870 miles) from the port city of Chabahar in southern Iran, and that is now operating near the Gulf of Aden, east of Yemen’s Socotra Island; however, the Pentagon had not immediately confirmed this.

Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, via US Navy

The carrier group reportedly has several accompanying destroyers and submarines, as is standard when operating in an active deployment, especially in the Central Command (CENTCOM) area.

US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are expected to meet on Friday in Istanbul to discuss a possible nuclear deal, according to Axios.

For now, uncertainty hangs above the meeting planning - but the apparent distancing of US and Iranian forces in the Gulf region is a big and positive sign that the dialogue is proceeding, which would constitute the first direct talks since the June war.

Iranian foreign Miniser Araghchi has stressed that "Iran is ready for diplomacy" but has also spelled out that "diplomacy is incompatible with pressure, intimidation, and force." The Iranians are hopeful about potential renewed direct contacts with Washington, however.

Also, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in a new Tuesday statement signaled conditional support for renewed talks with Washington as regional intermediaries - including Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar - scramble to dial down rising regional tensions.

In a social media post, Pezeshkian said he backs "fair and equitable negotiations" with the United States and has instructed his top diplomat Araghchi to engage with US officials "provided that a suitable environment exists - one free from threats and unreasonable expectations."

Pezeshkian did not explicitly reference the meeting or any details reportedly expected in Istanbul, but his comments add to mounting signals from Tehran that diplomacy remains on the table, as long as it is not conducted under pressure or ultimatums.

Iran Puts Uranium Enrichment on the Negotiating Tablehttps://t.co/NXHbIW7n2O

— Clash Report (@clashreport) February 3, 2026

The Quincy Institute's Trita Parsi has concluded Iran sees itself as having nothing to lose if it tries this diplomatic Hail Mary before possibly trading bombs with the US.

"Direct talks between Iranian officials and Trump himself may appear completely unrealistic, but some of the main turning points in the US-Iran drama were caused by moves that most believe were completely impossible," he wrote. "I don't see what the Iranians have to lose by trying this card."

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 09:20

Disney Names Parks Head Josh D'Amaro As Next CEO, Replacing Bob Iger

Walt Disney, after a more than two-year saga, has landed on its next CEO: Josh D’Amaro, head of the company’s theme parks and consumer products division.

D’Amaro, 54, will take over the top job at Disney from current CEO Bob Iger, who cumulatively has served in the post for nearly two decades, having been CEO from 2005 to 2020 when he we replaced by Bob Chapek, only to return in 2022). The Disney board on Tuesday announced the selection of D’Amaro, currently chairman of Disney Experiences, capping the media giant’s extended and closely watched succession drama

D’Amaro, a 28-year-veteran of the company, will succeed Iger effective March 18, the Burbank, California-based company said Tuesday in a statement. He has been with Disney since 1998, starting out at Disneyland. He has worked across a range of business, marketing and operations posts within Disney, from CFO of Disney Consumer Products Global Licensing to president of Disneyland Resort and president of Walt Disney World Resort. He was promoted to his current post as head of Disney parks and cruises, consumer products and Walt Disney Imagineering in May 2020. 

D’Amaro is seen as CEO in the classic Disney mold with nearly 30 years of experience on the retail side of Disney, giving him an intimate understanding of how children and families interact with the Mouse House brand, according to Variety. D’Amaro at present steers a $60 billion investment in an expansion of Disney’s theme parks around the world, including a new destination coming to Abu Dhabi. Before joining Disney, D’Amaro worked in Gillette’s finance department. He holds a bachelor’s degree in business administration/marketing from Georgetown University.

According to Bloomberg, the head of Disney’s Experiences division, by far the company’s biggest source of profit, D’Amaro, 54, was chosen from among several internal candidates who were in line to succeed Iger. They included Dana Walden, co-chair of entertainment and head of TV; Alan Bergman, also co-chair of entertainment and head of film; and Jimmy Pitaro, ESPN’s chairman.

Iger has been personally mentoring potential replacements, according to the company, an attempt by the board to ensure succession goes smoothly after botched efforts in the past.

Disney’s board of directors, led by chairman James Gorman, was under pressure to execute a strong succession plan this time around — after the debacle that ensued when Iger previously handed the CEO baton to Bob Chapek, a Disney veteran who was promoted from the same perch that D’Amaro now holds. Chapek took over as CEO in February 2020, just weeks before the COVID pandemic turned global markets upside down and forced immediate and drastic changes in the way Disney operated. Iger stepped down as CEO but remained chairman overseeing creative matters for the company. That set the stage for an epic clash of strategic visions and executive egos that culminated in the Disney board ousting Chapek in November 2022 and Iger reclaiming the CEO role. 

But Iger’s return had a time limit from the start. In October 2024, the Disney board committed to naming a CEO successor by early 2026. After the Chapek fiasco and increasing investor scrutiny on corporate governance issues (of which CEO succession planning is paramount), Disney’s board has little margin for error this time around.

 In announcing Disney’s year-end 2025 quarterly results on Monday, Iger said there was “healthy competition” between D’Amaro’s parks division and entertainment business, led by Walden and co-chair Alan Bergman.

“We have a healthy competition now at our company in terms of which of those two businesses is going to essentially prevail as the No. 1 driver of profitability for the company,” Iger said. “But I’m confident that both have that ability, meaning both have the ability to grow nicely into the future, given all the investments that we’ve made and the trajectory that we’re on.”

Iger also offered his thoughts on the next Disney CEO’s agenda. “In the world that changes as much as it does… trying to preserve the status quo is a mistake, and I’m certain that my successor will not do that,” he said. “So [the new CEO will] be handed, I think, a good hand in terms of the strength of the company, a number of opportunities to grow and also the exhortation that in a world that changes, you also have to continue to change and evolve as well.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 08:43

PayPal Suffers Worst Drop In Four Years After Profit Miss, CEO Set To Exit

PayPal shares in New York premarket trading plunged 17%. If the losses hold through the cash session, this would mark the largest decline in four years. The selloff was sparked after the payments company reported adjusted profit and revenue that fell short of Bloomberg Consensus estimates, along with news that CEO Alex Chriss will be replaced.

CFO Jamie Miller will serve as interim CEO until HP CEO Enrique Lores replaces Chriss. Newly appointed board chair David Dorman said that execution under the current CEO has failed to meet board expectations (translation: share price is too low), despite some progress.

"While some progress has been made in a number of areas over the last two years, the pace of change and execution was not in line with the Board's expectations," Dorman told investors.

Fourth-quarter earnings missed the average analyst estimates tracked by Bloomberg, with the payments company highlighting weakness from US retail spending and headwinds abroad.

Important to note that fourth-quarter EPS of $1.23 and revenue of $8.68 billion both missed expectations, while full-year EPS of $5.31 fell below prior guidance of $5.35 to $5.39. Adding to investor concern, signs of softening consumer spending emerged as growth in PayPal-branded online checkouts slowed sharply to 1%, down from 6% a year earlier.

CFO Miller warned in October that worsening macroeconomic headwinds (a K-shaped economy) would affect the firm's ability to achieve its longer-term targets. She and other executives have struggled to monetize the company's payment services.

Here's a snapshot of fourth quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Adjusted EPS $1.23 vs. $1.19 y/y, estimate $1.28 (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Net revenue $8.68 billion, +3.7% y/y, estimate $8.79 billionTransaction revenue $7.82 billion, +3% y/y, estimate $7.95 billion

• Other value added services revenue $857 million, +10% y/y, estimate $838.8 million

Transaction margin dollars $4.03 billion, +2.5% y/y, estimate $4.07 billion

Total payment volume $475.14 billion, +8.5% y/y, estimate $471.51 billion

• Venmo total payment volume $85.79 billion, +13% y/y, estimate $84.05 billion

Payment transactions 6.75 billion, +2% y/y, estimate 6.72 billion

Active customer accounts 439 million, +1.2% y/y, estimate 439.04 million

Adjusted operating income $1.55 billion, +3.2% y/y, estimate $1.59 billion

Adjusted operating margin 17.9% vs. 18% y/y, estimate 18.1%

Adjusted free cash flow $2.10 billion, -0.1% y/y, estimate $2.03 billion

US revenue y/y growth 4%

International revenue y/y growth 1%

Total operating expenses $7.17 billion, +3.5% y/y, estimate $7.26 billion

As for the outlook, PayPal is guiding to muted growth and margin pressure in the near term

First Quarter Forecast

• Sees mid-single digit decline in adjusted EPS growth y/y

• Sees roughly flat transaction margin dollars

Year Forecast

• Sees low-single digit decline to slightly positive in adjusted EPS growth y/y

• Sees roughly flat transaction margin dollars

• Sees adjusted free cash flow above $6 billion

• Sees capital expenditure about $1 billion, estimate $997.8 million

The combination of the fourth quarter miss and the CEO being replaced sent shares tumbling in premarket trading, down about 17% around 0800 ET - the largest decline since the 25% crash on Feb. 2, 2022.

What is this stock pattern called?

What happens to PayPal shares when X Payments goes live?

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 08:40

Futures Rise As Tech Gains On Palantir's "Cosmic Reward"

Stock futures are higher, led by tech, while metals rebound and global markets more than retrace Friday/Monday losses. Only bitcoin continues to slide on laughable fears that Kevin Warsh will somehow shrink the Fed's balance sheet. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.3% and Nasdaq futures gain 0.5% after blockbuster results from Palantir renewed the AI trade. Pre-market, Mag7 names are all higher ex-AAPL with PLTR the standout which should aid the Software reboot. Palantir’s forecast for 61% sales growth this year is helping the AI narrative, with CEO Alexander Karp describing the company’s accelerating revenue as “a cosmic reward” for the data analytics firm’s shareholders. Energy, healthcare, and Staples are weaker pre-mkt as all other sectors are big higher. European stocks briefly traded into record territory, while technology stocks led gains in Asia as South Korea’s chipmakers are surging again. Elsewhere, dip-buyers are crowding into metals: gold is +5.5%, silver +9.4% with WTI flat and Ags bid. Bond yields are flat to +1bp with USD flat. Today’s macro focus is on the vote to reopen the government, where Trump told GOP not to block the deal; we also get the January vehicle sales update. NFP / JOLTS have been delayed with release dates to be updated after the gov’t reopens. Earnings remain front and center, with PepsiCo, Pfizer and AMD due today. . Bitcoin remained under pressure.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher ex-Apple which is again depressed by soaring memory prices (Alphabet +1.2%, Tesla +1.1%, Amazon +0.7%, Microsoft +0.2%, Nvidia +0.7%, Meta +0.1%, Apple -0.7%)

• Gold and silver miners including Newmont (NEM) gain as precious metal prices climb out of a three-day slide. Newmont rises 4%.
• AES Corp. (AES) rises 8% after BlackRock Inc.’s Global Infrastructure Partners is said to team up with EQT AB in a bid to acquire the power company.
• Eaton Corp. (ETN) falls 5% after the power equipment company forecast adjusted earnings per share for 2026 of $13.00 to $13.50, a range with a midpoint below analysts’ expectations.
• Fabrinet (FN) falls 4% after the engineering and manufacturing services company’s results showed component constraints pressuring the datacom business. However, analysts are broadly positive on the prospects going forward.
• HP Inc. (HPQ) slips 2% as CEO Enrique Lores stepped down to lead PayPal Holdings.
• Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) rises 11% after the company forecast revenue for fiscal 2026 that significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations, a boost for the data analytics company after its shares have gotten off to a lackluster start so far this year.
• PayPal Holdings (PYPL) falls 15% after the fintech reported profit and revenue that fell short of expectations. The company also said Chief Executive Officer Alex Chriss will be replaced by HP Inc. CEO Enrique Lores.
• Rambus (RMBS) slides 8% after analysts note that a supply chain hiccup weighed on the semiconductor device company’s first-quarter outlook. The stock has performed strongly of late, rising about 24% so far this year.
• SoFi Technologies (SOFI) climbs 3% after JPMorgan upgraded to overweight. The bank is positive about the company’s execution and “more tenable valuation.”
• Teradyne (TER) soars 20% after the semiconductor manufacturing company forecast revenue for the first quarter that exceeded the average analyst estimate.

In corporate news, Elon Musk confirmed the combination of SpaceX and xAI in a deal that values the enlarged entity at $1.25 trillion, with the company said to still be planning an IPO later this year. Musk’s rationale is that the least expensive way to do AI computations within two to three years will be in space. Bloomberg estimates that xAI is burning through ~$11 billion in cash in 2025, constraining its ability to seek outsized funding rounds similar to OpenAI. In other corporate news, Uber is rolling out its ride-hailing service in the Chinese gambling hub of Macau, expanding into a new Asian market for the first time in years. Watch shares of professional publishers after Anthropic released an AI-powered productivity tool for companies’ in-house legal teams.

Traders’ appetite for risk rebounded after a steep drop in precious metals triggered a pullback from stocks and crypto at the end of last week. Strong US manufacturing data added to optimism, showing that the economy is on a sound footing as the earnings season rolls on. 

“There is a lot of liquidity out there and it’s remaining committed to financial assets,” said Guy Miller, chief strategist at Zurich Insurance. “It’s rotating within the markets, and the macro backdrop is supportive of that continuing."

In politics, Republican opposition to Trump’s deal with Democrats to end the partial government shutdown began to crumble late Monday as two conservative holdouts agreed to end their threatened blockade. And an analysis of results from a state senate district vote in the Fort Worth area showed that a Texas Democrat’s shock win was powered by big shifts among Latino voters.

Looking at earnings season, out of the 178 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, 79% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 16% have missed. PepsiCo reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter profit and announced a $10 billion share buyback. Merck's forecast for 2026 sales and profit missed Wall Street’s expectations. 

Investors will now turn their attention Tuesday to a slate of earnings, including Advanced Micro Devices Inc., after a favorable reception to Palantir’s report. Traders are watching for signs that AMD is challenging Nvidia Corp.’s dominance in the market for artificial-intelligence accelerators as they look more broadly than the Magnificent Seven for winners of the AI trade. AMD has rallied more than 50% since October, while Nvidia remained largely flat.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.2%, having surrendered most of an earlier advance that took the index to an all-time peak. Miners outperform, tracking a rebound in precious metals. Meanwhile, a drop in Publicis Groupe weighed on media shares. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Amundi shares advanced as much as 6.4% to a fresh high after Europe’s largest asset manager reported what RBC says is a “solid” update and announced a €500m share buyback
• The Stoxx 600 Basic Resources Index gained 2.4%, with gold and silver advancing as dip buyers crowded into precious metals following an abrupt unwinding of a record-breaking rally
• Plus500 shares rise as much as 8.5%, climbing to a new all-time high, after the trading platform announced its entry into the US retail prediction markets through a deal struck with Kalshi Exchange
• ING Groep shares gain as much as 3.1%, hitting a fresh 2007-high, after analysts at Deutsche Bank upgraded the bank and significantly increased their estimates
• Swatch shares gain as much as 3.2% after Bank of America upgraded to neutral from underperform on optimism that the worst of the decline is over for watchmakers
• R&S jumps as much as 24%, the most on record, after the Swiss transformers manufacturer posted order intakes for the full year that surpassed the consensus estimate
• Demant shares plunge as much as 12% to the lowest in three years after the Danish hearing-aid maker provided guidance for 2026 that was below expectations
• Publicis shares drop as much as 9%. Despite strong results for the fourth quarter and for the full year, analysts note the advertising agency’s conservative growth guidance for 2026 implies a slowdown
• Zalando shares fall as much as 8.5% as Morgan Stanley warned the clothing retailer continued to face risks stemming from social commerce
• Siltronic shares slide as much as 6.8% after the silicon wafer manufacturer warned the challenging market is expected to persist in 2026, which analysts at Jefferies believe will weigh on expectations
• Schaeffler shares drop as much as 4.5% after UBS downgraded the stock to sell from neutral, warning its current market cap reflects far more ambitious adoption curves and economics for its humanoid robots than he sees likely
• Sartorius shares drop as much as 3.6% in Frankfurt, reversing an earlier 4.6% gain. Barclays analysts said it expected “some slight share price weakness today on implied downside risk to consensus estimates”
• De Nora drops as much as 10% as Kepler Cheuvreux trimmed its price target on the Italian water technologies specialist, noting 2026 will be a lackluster year,

Asian stocks extended a rally on Tuesday, more than erasing the previous session’s decline, on a rebound in precious metals and resurgent excitement around artificial intelligence. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 3.1%, and was on pace for the best day since April 10. Most regional markets were in the green, with South Korean’s Kospi surging 6.8% as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix helped lead the broader Asian benchmark higher. Stocks also rose more than 3% in Japan, and closed higher in Taiwan and Australia as well. Hong Kong shares edged down. Indian equities also rallied after President Donald Trump announced tariff cuts on the country’s goods. Risk sentiment broadly recovered on Tuesday, with investors piling back into semiconductors and AI-related shares. Palantir Technologies  forecast fiscal 2026 revenue that significantly beat expectations, while Elon Musk’s SpaceX confirmed a $1.25 trillion merger with xAI.

The rout in metals prices is disruptive for equities in the short term and has “created some spillover effects from a liquidity perspective,” Kinger Lau, chief China equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Equities are expected to continue rising this year, driven by AI implementation and investment that will support earnings growth, he added

In FX, the dollar pared an earlier fall with the yen now the weakest of the G-10 currencies, down 0.2%. The Aussie is still leading after the RBA hiked interest rates.

In rates,treasuries posted a small retreat, with the 10-year yield up one basis point at 4.29%. European government bonds also dip.

In commodities, oil prices are steady with WTI crude futures near $62 a barrel. Spot silver is up 8% to about $86/oz while gold is near $4,900/oz.

Looking at today's calendar, Wards total vehicle sales are expected during the day. JOLTS jobs data for December was on the schedule but has been delayed by the partial government shutdown. Fed speaker slate includes Barkin (8am) and Bowman (9:40am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.4%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%
• DAX +0.4%, CAC 40 +0.1%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.29%
• VIX -0.1 points at 16.24
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1190.87
• euro little changed at $1.1789
• WTI crude +0.1% at $62.22/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Republican opposition to Trump’s deal with Democrats to end the partial US government shutdown began to crumble late Monday. The president told House holdouts via social media to pass the measure “IMMEDIATELY!” A chamber vote is expected today. BBG
• Elon Musk is merging SpaceX and xAI in a deal valuing the new entity at $1.25 trillion, with SpaceX still planning an IPO later this year, according to people familiar. BBG
• Reports out Monday afternoon said OpenAI is unsatisfied with some of Nvidia’s latest artificial intelligence chips, and it has sought alternatives since last year, eight sources familiar with the matter said, potentially complicating the relationship between the two highest-profile players in the AI boom. RTRS
• US President Trump said announcing the creation of US strategic critical minerals reserve. We are launching Project Vault today. USD 2bln from the private sector. USD 10bln funding from US Exim Bank.
• Australia’s central bank has lifted interest rates for the first time since 2023,one of the first big economies to tighten its monetary policy, in an effort to combat inflation. The Bank increased rates by 25bps to 3.85%. FT
• China has let the interest rate on a one-year policy loan to banks drop to a record low, according to people familiar with the situation, lowering funding costs so as to revive economic growth. BBG
• Demand softened at Japan’s 10-year bond auction as investors grew cautious ahead of a snap election, keeping yields elevated amid equity gains and ongoing fiscal concerns. BBG
• Ukraine has agreed with western partners that persistent Russian violations of any future ceasefire agreement would be met by a coordinated military response from Europe and the US. FT
• French inflation fell more sharply than expected last month to a 5 year low, raising further possibility that eurozone inflation could be below the European Central Bank’s target for longer this year. Consumer prices were 0.4% higher than in January 2025, down from a 0.7% increase in December. WSJ
• Euro-zone banks unexpectedly tightened corporate credit standards at the end of 2025, the ECB said in its quarterly Bank Lending Survey. BBG
• President Trump said he is seeking USD 1bln of damages from Harvard.
• House Rules panel advances the Senate funding package.

Trade/Tariffs

• Kremlin's Spokesperson said Russia have not heard any statement from India about halting Russian oil purchases, adding that they intend to continue developing their relations with India.

Earnings

• NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.35 (exp. 3.31), Revenue 3.34bln (exp. 3.31bln). Q1 Guidance:. EPS 2.77-3.17 (exp. 2.99). Revenue 3.05-3.15bln (exp. 3.09bln).
• OpenAI has determined it needs alternatives to NVIDIA’s (NVDA) latest AI chips in some cases, has sought alternatives since last year. OpenAI is unsatisfied with the speed at which NVIDIA’s hardware can spit out answers to ChatGPT users for complex problems.
• Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.25 EPS (exp. 0.23), Revenue 1.41bln (exp. 1.34bln). Said sales to US businesses in 2026 are expected to grow at least 115% to more than USD 3.14bln.Outlook:. FY revenue 7.182-7.198bln (exp. 6.3bln). FY adj. operating income 4.126-4.142bln (exp. 3.14bln). Q1 adj. operating income 870-874mln (exp. 641mln). Q1 revenue 1.532-1.536bln (exp. 1.33bln).

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher with several bourses firmly recovering from the prior day's sell-off, as the region took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street, where markets rallied after a strong ISM Manufacturing report. ASX 200 climbed higher with tech and miners leading the advances, although further upside was capped as the focus turned to the RBA which hiked rates for the first time in over two years and sounded hawkish on inflation. Nikkei 225 surged following recent currency weakness and gained a firm footing above 54,000 to hit a record intraday high. KOSPI outperformed in a turnaround from the prior day's bloodbath with the Korea Exchange activating a sidecar earlier in the session to briefly halt program trading after a sharp rise in the local benchmark. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp initially lagged with early pressure seen across tech stocks, despite no immediate obvious catalysts, and with some attributing it to VAT hike concerns, while the Hang Seng TECH Index briefly re-entered bear market territory after dropping more than 20% from its October high. However, Chinese markets then pared their losses alongside the broad rally in Asia.

Top Asian News

• China's No1/central document includes plans to improve and consolidate soybean production. Intend to stabilise food and oil output. To diversify agricultural product imports.
• Earthquake of magnitude 5.0 hits near the east coast of Honshu, Japan.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama continues to refrain from commenting on intervention data and said PM Takaichi talked about FX benefits as a general fact, and didn't specifically emphasise merits in a weak yen.
• Nintendo (7974 JT) President said memory price rises not having a major impact on earnings.
• Nintendo (7974 JT) - Q3 (JPY): Operating income 155.21bln (exp. 180.7bln), 9M switch sales -66% Y/Y; sees FY net sales 2.25tln (exp. 2.37tln).

European bourses (+0.4%) opened entirely in the green, but sentiment has since waned a touch off best levels, with a couple of indices now slightly in the red. European sectors opened with a positive bias but are now mixed. Basic Resources outperform, led higher by strength in underlying metals prices. Media lags, pressured by losses in Publicis (-7.4%) and ProSiebenSat.1 Media (-2.2%) post-earnings.

Top European News

• French Finance Minister said the G7 needs to agree on a joint instrument to address global macroeconomic imbalances. Joint instruments can have a sectoral focus, such as rare earths.
• French Finance Minister Lescure said that the 2026 budget will reduce the deficit to 5.0% from 5.4%, GDP growth of 1% so far in 2026 is a good start.

FX

• DXY resumed trade overnight on a softer footing following yesterday's post-ISM recovery (which printed its first expansion in 12 months and at the fastest pace since 2022). The index gradually pared those losses as the morning progressed, to now trade flat, and at the upper end of a 97.34-97.62 range. On the data front, it was also announced that the BLS has delayed the December JOLTS report due today and the January NFP report that was scheduled for Friday owing to the partial government shutdown. With a House vote expected as early as today, the data could be published next week if the vote passes, ING posits.
• Antipodeans are firmer with outperformance in the AUD amid the rebound in risk appetite and metal prices, while further upside was seen after the RBA meeting, where the central bank hiked the Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.85%, as expected, and stated inflation is likely to remain above target for some time. Governor Bullock declined to provide any forward guidance on the future path of interest rates. AUD/USD has come off best levels amid the aforementioned recovery in the DXY but still holds onto most of its gains in a 0.6945-0.7050 current daily range.
• Other G10s are flat/lower against the USD, with EUR & GBP flat whilst the JPY lags a touch. For the latter, there was some commentary via Japanese Finance Minister Katayama who reiterated that PM’s Takaichi latest commentary on a weak JPY was a general fact and didn't specifically emphasise merits in a weak JPY. Focus now on the Japanese snap election, where discussions regarding an LDP "supermajority" is getting more attention. Elsewhere, EUR digested a cooler-than-expected prelim French HICP report which had little impact on the single currency.

Central Banks

• RBA hikes the Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.85%, as expected, with the decision unanimous, while it stated that inflation is likely to remain above target for some time. A wide range of data confirms inflation has picked up materially. Broad measures of wage growth continue to be strong. Uncertainty in the global economy remains significant but has so far not affected Australia. Job market conditions are a little tight. Capacity pressures are greater than previously assessed. Private-sector demand is growing faster than expected. There are uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation and the extent to which monetary policy is restrictive. Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy:. Underlying inflation is higher than expected. Underlying inflation rose to 3.4% over the year to the December quarter, which was higher than expected three months ago and substantially higher than expected in the August Statement. GDP growth has continued to pick up, with private demand growth surprisingly strong. GDP grew by 2.1% over the year to the September quarter, which was around our estimate of the economy’s potential growth rate. Labour market conditions have been stable. The unemployment rate has been broadly stable at around 4.25% in recent quarters.
• RBA Governor Bullock said does not know if this will be a tightening cycle and cannot rule anything out or in.
• RBA Governor Bullock said pulse of inflation is too strong and that high inflation hurts all Australians. said:. Board thinks inflation will take longer to return to the target. We cannot allow inflation to get away from us. Will not give forward guidance and the board will remain focused on data. Did not discuss a 50bps rate increase.
• US President Trump said Fed chair nominee will do good and that investigation into Fed Chair Powell should be taken to the end.
• ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4) : Overall credit terms and conditions tightened for loans to firms and consumer credit, while they eased for housing loans.
• BOK Minutes suggests one board member said further rate cuts should only be considered after risks related to FX and housing markets ease.
• ECB Bank Lending Survey (Jan): Banks tightened credit standards for firms, citing higher perceived risks amid lower risk tolerance; Credit standards eased slightly for housing loans, but tightened further for consumer credit.

Fixed Income

• JGBs spent the overnight session under modest pressure, with losses of just under 15 ticks at most in a narrow 131.41-60 band. Specifics for Japan are a little light as markets count down to Sunday's election, and the narrative is increasingly pointing to a convincing LDP victory, with a 'super majority' featuring more in discussions around the potential outcome.
• USTs are under modest pressure after contained APAC trade. Pressure that is most pronounced at the short end, with yields bid across the curve and flattening as things stand, in a marginal extension on the post-ISM flattener. Today's docket has been trimmed by the US shutdown, as the BLS will not be updating until there is a resolution and as such, JOLTS will not print. While a funding deal should pass very shortly, Friday's NFP will also be pushed until at least next week. Currently, USTs trade at the low-end of 111-15 to 111-20+ parameters, at a WTD low, taking out last week's trough by half a tick but clear of the 111-09 YTD base.
• Bunds came under pressure early doors, directionally in-fitting with the above, but with magnitudes a little more pronounced in limited newsflow and light volumes. A move that was perhaps a function of the constructive European risk tone at the time. Bunds as low as 127.74 at the time and currently hold a handful of ticks above that trough with losses of c. 15 ticks on the session. Data-wise, French prelim. HICP came in cooler-than-expected across the board, lifting EGBs generally at the time. A series that works to offset some of the hawkish impulses from the prelim. Thereafter, a 2035 Green Bund auction had little impact on the benchmark.
• Gilts gapped lower by 12 ticks, acknowledging the above. UK specifics are very light aside from a well received 2035 auction, which garnered a b/c above the 3x mark. Focus now turns to the BoE on Thursday, where rates are expected to be kept unchanged.
• UK sold GBP 4.25bln 4.75% 2035 Gilt: b/c 3.63x (prev. 3.26x), average yield 4.585% (prev. 4.456%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.3bps).
• Germany sells EUR 1.35bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.50% 2035 Green Bund: b/c 2.01x (prev. 2.2x), average yield 2.79% (prev. 2.52%), retention 10.0% (prev. 4.2%)
• Ireland's NTMA raises EUR 5bln from the sale of its new 10 year benchmark bond.
• South Korea is to sell 3-year and 5-year USD-denominated bonds.
• Italy's Tesoro opens book to sell new 15-year BTP bond via syndication, with guidance seen +10bps to 2040 BTP.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks continued to extend on Monday's losses, with WTI and Brent nearing USD 61/bbl and USD 65/bbl, respectively. Oil prices traded muted throughout the APAC session but were pressured following comments by Russia's Deputy PM Novak, saying they have a surplus in fuel supplies. Since, benchmarks have edged a little higher to now trade flat on the session.
• Nat Gas futures continue to fall, with Dutch TTF returning to EUR 32/MWh as concerns over the Arctic storm affecting gas production ease.
• Precious metals have brushed off the recent tarnish following the aggressive selloff in recent sessions. Spot gold has regained the USD 4900/oz handle as being as low as USD 4400/oz in Monday's session. Investors have been highlighting that the selloff is just a correction and that underlying drivers for gold, mainly central bank buying and ETF inflows, remain strong.
• 3M LME Copper continues to rebound, alongside precious metals, as the red metal extends to a session high of USD 13.48k/t. The bounce from the recent selloff comes amid a broader reversal of the risk tone and reports that China could expand its strategic copper reserves. China maintains stockpiles of major base metals such as copper and cobalt to stabilise commodity prices and ease raw material cost pressures. The expansion of the reserves comes amid the recent volatility of metals prices.
• Russian Deputy PM Novak said oil demand and supply are in balance.
• Kuwait Petroleum Corp. intends to invite global oil firms to assist Kuwait Oil in the development of offshore fields, Bloomberg reported.
• China raises its gas and diesel prices by CNY 205 and 195 respectively, effective February 4th.
• Russia's Deputy PM Novak said they have a surplus in fuel supplies, adding that domestic diesel and gas supplies are sufficient.
• Shanghai Gold Exchange to adjust margin rations to 17% (prev. 16%) for some gold and silver contracts, and widen the daily price limit to 16% (prev. 15%) as of the 4th February settlement.
• China could expand its strategic copper reserves and explore a commercial reserve system with state-owned firms.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russian Deputy PM Novak said oil demand and supply are in balance.
• Kremlin's Spokesperson said Russia have not heard any statement from India about halting Russian oil purchases, adding that they intend to continue developing their relations with India.
• Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said the modernisation of their nuclear triad is at a very advanced stage.
• Russia's Deputy PM Novak said they have a surplus in fuel supplies, adding that domestic diesel and gas supplies are sufficient.
• Russia and China held new round of stability talks to support multilateralism.
• Ukraine agrees multi-tier plan for enforcing any ceasefire with Russia, according to FT.
• reported note that witnesses say loud explosions heard in Ukraine's capital of Kyiv.
• US President Trump said doing very well with Ukraine and Russia and think we'll have some good news. said:. Putin agreed to no missiles going into Kyiv. We are talking with Iran and we'll see how that goes.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Iran's Vice President said a new chapter of Iran's nuclear achievements will be unveiled.
• Iranian official said that a US aircraft carrier has retreated and is now near Yemen.

Geopolitics: Other

• Russia and China held new round of stability talks to support multilateralism.
• Venezuela's Interim President Rodriguez met with US Envoy Loro Dogu.

US Event Calendar

• 8:00 am: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on US Economy
• 9:40 am: Fed’s Bowman in Moderated Conversation

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have seen a huge turnaround over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+0.54%) closing just shy of its record high, with another +0.25% gain in futures this morning after being over -2% lower than current levels this time yesterday. The recovery had several drivers, but the biggest was the ISM manufacturing index, which unexpectedly surged to its highest level since 2022. So that led to growing optimism on the 2026 outlook, along with a classic risk-on move. Meanwhile in Europe, it was a similar story as the STOXX 600 (+1.03%) hit another all-time high, whilst the sharp decline in oil prices helped to ease concern on the inflation side. So it was generally a strong day, with precious metals still the obvious exception, as gold prices (-4.76%) fell to $4,661/oz, whilst silver (-6.96%) saw a fresh plunge that left it down by nearly a third in the last two sessions. However, the yo-yo moves in precious metals have seen gold (+3.46%) and silver (+5.40%) erase most of yesterday’s losses overnight.

That ISM manufacturing print was critical, because it cemented the prevailing narrative of strong data resilience, which has supported markets despite the array of surprising headlines in recent weeks. Indeed, the headline print was back in expansionary territory at 52.6 in January (vs. 48.5 expected), placing it above every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg. And the details were also very strong, with the new orders component surging to 57.1, up +9.7pts on the December print, making it the sharpest monthly jump since June 2020 and the Covid recovery. Clearly it’s only one piece of data, but it’s one of the first we have covering 2026, and it confirmed the robust signals from other sources like the PMIs and the weekly jobless claims.

One of the clearest reactions to the ISM was in US Treasury markets, with yields moving higher as investors priced out the chance of Fed rate cuts. For instance, futures had been pricing in an 87% chance of another rate cut by the June FOMC (which would be Warsh’s first as Chair if confirmed), but that was down to 70% by the close. And in turn, the 2yr yield (+4.9bps) rose to 3.57%, whilst the 10yr yield (+4.2bps) rose to 4.28%. That was particularly noticeable among real yields too, as the 2yr real yield rose by +9.1bps. Higher yields supported the dollar index (+0.66%), which has had its best two-day run since last spring.

Yields were little changed after the latest quarterly borrowing estimates from the US Treasury, which came in at $574bn for Q1 and $109bn for Q2. The Q2 figure was a bit higher than expected, but this was mostly due to an increased end-of-June cash balance target of $900bn, which our strategists expect to be met with higher bill issuance.

While yesterday’s US data delivered positive news, we heard that the BLS will not be releasing the January jobs report on Friday as scheduled due to the partial government shutdown that started last Saturday. In the latest on the shutdown, Trump called on House Republicans to immediately pass the funding deal that was approved by the Senate late last week. Trump’s intervention came as House Speaker Johnson has sought to avoid a push for amendments by conservative Republicans, with a House vote on the package expected today.

Although precious metals are rallying back this morning it's worth highlighting Friday and Monday's losses in aggregate. Gold was down a further -4.76% yesterday, which left them down -13.28% in total over the last 2 sessions, making it the biggest 2-day plunge since 2013, and the second biggest since the 1980s. For silver there was an even bigger slide, with prices down -6.96% to $79.27/oz, which brought the 2-day slide to an historic -31.48%. Indeed, that 2-day move for silver is the biggest fall since Bloomberg’s daily data starts back in 1950, so this is genuinely unparalleled in any of our careers unless you're reading this in your 90s. If you are, then a special hello this morning.

Meanwhile for oil, yesterday also brought some big declines as investor concern eased about geopolitical risk. In part, that followed Trump’s weekend comments that was hopeful about some sort of deal with Iran. And then yesterday, Axios reported that the US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff would meet Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in Istanbul on Friday. So that helped to take out some of the geopolitical risk premium, and it marked a sharp turnaround from January when Brent crude saw its biggest monthly jump in 4 years. So by the close, Brent crude fell -4.36% to $66.30/bbl, and WTI was down -4.71% to $62.14/bbl. Moreover, that eased investor concern on the inflation side too, with the US 2yr inflation swap down -4.7bps on the day to 2.55%, its biggest daily drop of 2026 so far.

Against that backdrop, it was a strong day for equities on both sides of the Atlantic. So the S&P 500 (+0.54%) recovered from a run of 3 consecutive declines last week, closing just -0.03% below its record high from last Tuesday. Admittedly, the Mag 7 (-0.10%) continued to struggle, posting a 3rd consecutive decline, but small-caps had a very strong performance, with the Russell 2000 up +1.02%, while consumer staples (+1.58%) and industrials (+1.26%) sectors led the gains for the S&P 500.

Meanwhile, we had news of fresh tariff relief, as Trump posted that the US would cut the main tariff on India from 25% to 18%, while also removing the additional 25% tariff the US imposed on India last August citing its purchases of Russian oil. Trump said India would stop purchases of Russian oil, buy “over $500 BILLION DOLLARS of U.S. Energy, Technology, Agricultural, Coal, and many other products” and remove tariff and non-tariff barriers against the US, though the official details of the pact are not yet clear.

Earlier in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+1.03%) and the FTSE 100 (+1.15%) both hit record highs, whilst Italy’s FTSE MIB (+1.05%) closed at its highest level since 2000. That came as the final PMI readings in Europe were revised in a positive direction, with the Euro Area manufacturing PMI up to 49.5 (vs. flash 49.4), alongside upward revisions in Germany, France and the UK. 

Asian equity markets are experiencing a significant rebound this morning, with the KOSPI (+6.13%) seeing a stunning surge in AI-related shares, while the Nikkei (+3.89%) is also witnessing a notable increase, supported by a weaker yen. The S&P/ASX 200 (+0.90%) saw its gains trimmed after the RBA raised the key rate to address rising price pressures (details below). In other areas, Chinese stocks are underperforming compared to their regional counterparts, with the Hang Seng flat and the Shanghai Comp +0.64%. As well as S&P futures (+0.25%) being higher as discussed at the top, Nasdaq futures are half a percent higher as I type.

Returning to the RBA, they raised their benchmark cash target rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, up from 3.65%, in a unanimous decision by the rate-setting board. The central bank anticipates further potential hikes to address what it perceives as persistently high inflation. This decision follows a resurgence in Australian inflation observed in late 2025, which has also seen core inflation rise above the RBA’s annual target of 2% to 3%. Furthermore, the RBA’s economic outlook, as outlined in its monetary policy statement, now projects headline inflation to reach 4.2% by mid-year, significantly higher than earlier expectations. Additionally, it anticipates that underlying inflation—a trimmed mean measure closely monitored by the RBA—will accelerate to 3.7% by June, up from the current rate of 3.4%. In the short term, the RBA has revised its forecast for economic growth to 2.1% by June this year, an increase from the previous estimate of 1.9%. Following this decision, the Australian dollar (+0.86%) is gaining strength after two consecutive sessions of declines, trading at 0.7008 against the US dollar, while yields on the policy-sensitive 3-year government bonds have risen by +6.9 basis points to 4.31%, marking the highest level since November 2023. Meanwhile, 10-year yields have increased by +3.7 basis points to reach 4.84% as we finalise this report.

Against this background, markets have raised their expectations for a rate increase in May to 79%, with the market anticipating a cumulative tightening of 36 basis points this year.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the January flash CPI print from France, along with the US JOLTS report of job openings for December. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Barkin and Bowman, and also get the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey. Finally, today’s earnings include AMD and Pfizer.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 08:32

A Month Of Shock And Awe: These Were The Best And Worst Performing Assets In January

Earlier today, Deutsche Bank's Henry Allen released his monthly performance review looking at how markets performed in January. As Jim Reid writes, "January managed to both shock and awe in various ways, yet still delivered broad based gains across all global assets in our monthly performance review when measured in USD terms—a genuinely rare occurrence. It was perhaps fitting then, that the month ended with extraordinary volatility: silver saw its largest daily fall since 1980 (36% at the intraday lows,  26.3% at the close), while Gold recorded its biggest one day decline since 2013 ( 8.95%)."

We'll do a more detailed summary below, but here are the highlights:

• The most striking feature in January was the breadth of the rally. Despite an array of risks around Venezuela, Iran, Greenland and Fed independence, nearly every major asset was still in positive territory.

• Equities did well across the board, as positive data surprises continued to power risk assets. Indeed, the ISM services index hit a 14-month high, whilst the US jobs report showed unemployment ticking lower. In turn, the S&P 500 (+1.4% in total return terms) briefly poked above 7,000 for the first time, whilst the MSCI EM index (+8.9%) had its best monthly performance since November 2022.

• Most notably, it was a historic and extraordinary month for precious metals, even with the late pullback. In fact, gold (+13.3%) saw its best monthly performance since September 1999, and silver (+18.9%) posted a 9th consecutive monthly gain.

• Other commodities did very well, and the geopolitical risk pushed Brent crude oil (+16.2%) to $70.69/bbl, marking its biggest monthly jump in four years.

• Bitcoin was one of the few major assets to end the month lower, down -10.8% to $78,197. That’s a 4th consecutive monthly decline for Bitcoin, which hasn’t happened since before the pandemic.

• The US Dollar also struggled, particularly after Trump was asked about the decline, and he said “No, I think it’s great”. So the US Dollar weakened against every other G10 currency, and the dollar index also saw its worst 4-day slide since the Liberation Day turmoil last April.

• Finally, there were some huge moves in Japan, where a snap election was announced for February 8. JGBs sold off amidst election pledges for more consumption tax cuts, with the 10yr yield up +18bps on the month, and the 30yr yield up another +24bps.

So January was an action-packed month. With all that’s going on, February is unlikely to be quiet.

With summary in mind, here are the details: 

Markets put in a strong performance in January, as positive data surprises continued to power risk assets, with the S&P 500 briefly poking above 7,000 for the first time. But just as we saw in 2025, those headline gains masked significant volatility under the surface, as geopolitical risk rose significantly, including over Venezuela, Iran and Greenland. So that meant Brent crude oil (+16.2%) saw its biggest monthly jump in 4 years, particularly after Trump warned that a “massive Armada” was heading to Iran, which raised speculation about a US strike.

Moreover, precious metals had their biggest surge in decades, with gold prices (+13.3%) seeing their biggest monthly jump since September 1999, despite the sharp pullback at the end of the month. All that came amidst growing pressure on the US Dollar, which saw its biggest 4-day decline since the Liberation Day turmoil last year, weakening against every other G10 currency in January.

Month in Review - The high-level macro overview

Geopolitics dominated the headlines in January, with the year getting off to an eventful start. The first major event was on January 3, as Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was captured by US forces and taken to New York. There were immediately questions about what the market implications would be, as the US EIA have said that Venezuela has the largest proven crude oil reserves in the world, with 17% of the global total. So investors had to assess whether supply disruption in the short term might be outweighed by higher production in the long term. But outside of Venezuelan assets and some US oil companies, the wider market reaction was fairly limited.

However, events in Iran led to a much clearer oil price reaction, with Brent crude ending the month above $70/bbl again. That came as speculation mounted about some kind of US strike on Iran, and Trump himself posted on Jan 13 that he had cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials, whilst calling on protestors to take over the institutions. Then on Jan 14, Reuters reported that some personnel had been advised to leave the US military’s Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. That was significant because the base previously saw an Iranian missile attack last June, so the story added to fears that some sort of escalation might take place imminently. However, Trump later downplayed the magnitude of tensions, saying “we’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping — it’s stopped… And there’s no plan for executions”. However, while this led to a brief pullback in oil prices, they then resumed their ascent as trump posted on Jan 28 that a “massive Armada is heading to Iran.” So by the end of January, Brent crude was up +16.2% to $70.69/bbl, having seen its biggest monthly jump since January 2022.

The other major geopolitical story surrounded Greenland, which escalated as the month went on. For instance on Jan 14, Trump posted that "The United States needs Greenland for the purpose of National Security.” Then on Jan 17, Trump threatened a 10% tariff on several European countries from Feb 1, which would rise to 25% in June, unless “a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland”. That led to a serious risk-off move, with the S&P 500 down -2.1% on the following session. There was even speculation about more serious European retaliation, with German finance minister Lars Klingbeil said that “We are constantly experiencing new provocations, we are constantly experiencing new antagonism, which President Trump is seeking, and here we Europeans must make it clear that the limit has been reached”. However, on Jan 21, Trump then posted that “we have formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region.” He also said that the Feb 1 tariffs wouldn’t proceed. So that led to a market recovery, with the S&P 500 hitting another all-time high again on Jan 27, and still ending the month +1.4% higher in total return terms 

Otherwise, the Federal Reserve were in the spotlight in January, particularly after the Department of Justice began a criminal investigation that revived questions around central bank independence. That also added to the upward pressure on precious metals, with gold prices moving higher throughout the month, ultimately closing up +13.3% in its best monthly performance since September 1999. If anything, that underplays the volatility, as gold prices hit an all-time intraday record of $5,595/oz on Jan 29, before pulling back sharply to close the month at $4,894/oz, including its biggest daily decline on Jan 30 (-8.95%) since April 2013. That surge in gold prices also occurred alongside a fresh move lower for the US Dollar, with the dollar index down -1.4% in January, which included the biggest 4-day slide since the Liberation Day turmoil last April. That accelerated after Trump himself was asked about the decline, and he said “No, I think it’s great”. However, the moves stabilised after Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated the “strong dollar policy” the next day in a CNBC appearance. Finally on Jan 30, it was also announced that Kevin Warsh had been nominated by Trump to become the next Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Despite the volatility of global events in January, risk assets still put in a strong performance overall. In part, that was thanks to upbeat global data, which was still broadly robust. For instance in the US, the ISM services index hit a 14-month high of 54.4 in December. Then the jobs report showed that the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4% in December. Meanwhile in Europe, inflation was a bit weaker than expected, which meant expectations rose that the ECB might deliver another rate cut this year. And Euro Area growth for Q4 also surprised on the upside, at a +0.3% pace. So most of the major global equity indices still advanced in January.

Finally in Japan, there were further significant market moves. That came as a snap election was announced for February 8, with JGBs selling off amidst election pledges for more consumption tax cuts. That led to a surge in long-end yields, with the 30yr yield closing at 3.86% on Jan 20, its highest since that maturity was first launched, before coming down to end the month at 3.63%. The 10yr yield also reached its highest since 1999, closing at 2.35% on Jan 20 as well, before ending the month at 2.24%. But even with the pullback, the 10yr yield was still up +18bps on the month, and the 30yr yield was up +24bps. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan delivered a somewhat hawkish-leaning decision, as they kept rates on hold, but they also raised their inflation outlook, whilst the outlook report reiterated their desire to keep hiking rates.

Which assets saw the biggest gains in January?

• Precious metals: It was a historic month for precious metals, with gold (+13.3%) rising to $4,894/oz, in its strongest monthly performance since September 1999. Meanwhile, silver (+18.9%) rose to $85.20/oz.
• Oil and gas: Geopolitical risks meant Brent crude oil moved up +16.2% in January, rising to $70.69/bbl. That reversed a run of 5 consecutive monthly declines, and was the biggest monthly jump since January 2022. Natural gas also rose, with US natural gas futures up +18.2%, whilst European natural gas futures were up +39.5%, their biggest monthly jump since June 2022.
• Equities: It was another strong month for global equities, with the S&P 500 (+1.4%), the STOXX 600 (+3.2%), the Nikkei (+5.9%) and the MSCI EM index (+8.9%) all rising in total return terms. For the MSCI EM index, it was the best monthly performance since November 2022.
• Euro sovereigns: With inflation surprising on the downside and markets pricing a growing likelihood of an ECB rate cut this year, Euro sovereigns were up +0.7% in total return terms.

Which assets saw the biggest losses in January?

• US Dollar: The dollar index fell -1.4% in January, with the dollar itself weakening against every other G10 currency. At one point in January, the Euro moved above $1.20 for the first time since 2021, before ultimately closing at $1.185.

And visually (note bitcoin is not among the assets tracked by DB or it would have been ugly);

More in the full note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 08:20

Musk's X Office In Paris Raided By Cybercrime Unit As Brussels Becomes More Unhinged

One week after the European Commission opened a new formal investigation into Elon Musk's X under the Digital Services Act (DSA) and expanded a separate probe launched in December 2023, X's Paris office was raided by France's cybercrime unit as part of an investigation into the distribution of sexual deepfakes and Holocaust denial content.

"A search is being carried out at the French premises of X by the cybercrime unit of the Paris public prosecutor's office, together with @CyberGEND and @Europol , as part of the investigation opened in January 2025," the Paris prosecutors' office wrote on X early Tuesday.

The Paris public prosecutor's office also said it is leaving the X platform and will post exclusively on Reid Hoffman's LinkedIn and Meta-owned Instagram.

In a statement, the public prosecutor's office said that both Elon Musk and Linda Yaccarino (former X CEO) had been summoned for voluntary questioning "in their capacity as de facto and de jure managers of the X platform at the time of the events."

The prosecutor's office set the date for April 20, a day frequently associated with Musk, suggesting the activists chose it as a pointed jab.

Back to the X message: "Find us on Lkd and Insta." What a ridiculous statement from the prosecutor's office. It only reinforces the idea that this is pure political theater, emblematic of Europe's left-wing, unhinged censorship regime targeting a U.S. billionaire who has done more to uphold free speech than anyone else in the West.

X previously described the probe's widening last year as "politically-motivated"... The prosecutor's office said it was examining "alleged complicity" in offences related to the platform, including the spreading of child abuse images and sexually explicit deepfakes via the AI chatbot on X called "Grok."

Yet, no investigation into other chatbots? 

Musk has been outraged by the Brussels bureaucrats ...

The tyrannical, unelected bureaucracy oppressing the people of Europe are in the second picture https://t.co/j6CFFbajJa

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 7, 2025

It only appears that the censorship cartel in the EU has borrowed ideas from 20th-century Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler...

Pretty much https://t.co/0hspV4roFj

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 7, 2025

Within the Trump administration, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other officials have criticized EU internet policies.

"The EU should be supporting free speech, not attacking American companies over garbage," Vice President JD Vance recently said.

Rubio has warned the left-wing Brussels bureaucrats that "days of censoring Americans online are over."

With President Trump and Musk now buddies again, we suspect the president will fire off a Truth Social post about Brussels bureaucrats, and Musk will be commenting on X.

It's clear what the Europeans are trying to do...

What's happening in Europe is regulatory overreach that targets American free-speech innovation, and in the world of the Trump era, Brussels and its censorship cartel must be defeated.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 08:05

Nintendo Profit Misses As Soaring Memory Prices Could Become Major Headache

Dark storm clouds have gathered over Nintendo since the start of December, as investor concerns mount over tariffs, rising memory prices, and chatter about soft US holiday sales. The stock in Tokyo remains about one-third below its August peak.

Earnings on Tuesday reconfirmed the gloom after Nintendo reported third-quarter operating income that missed the average Wall Street estimate tracked by Bloomberg.

Switch 2 sold 7.01 million units in the December quarter, beating Bloomberg Consensus estimates, but the operating income of 155.21 billion yen, versus the 180.7 billion expected, raised investor concern.

Trade tariffs, combined with rising component costs, especially the explosion in the price of high-bandwidth memory (HBM), are pressuring thin hardware margins for the electronics company.

Goldman analyst Maho Kamiya warned clients in late Decemeber that concerns about rising memory prices and the absence of top-down tailwinds have sent Nintendo shares spiraling. The stock has yet to recover since the warning...

We have outlined a growing list of electronics companies pressured by soaring memory prices, even prompting industry insiders to tell consumers that front-running purchases of PCs, TVs, and other devices that use HBM should be "done now" because the memory shortage, caused by data center buildouts, will only get worse from here.

Snapshot of the third quarter (courtsey of Bloomberg):

• Operating income 155.21 billion yen, +23% y/y, estimate 180.7 billion yen (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Net income 159.93 billion yen, +24% y/y, estimate 147.5 billion yen

• Net sales 806.32 billion yen, +86% y/y, estimate 815.7 billion yen

"Switch 2 sales figures can be seen as okay, but it would be hard to call them solid," Toyo Securities analyst Hideki Yasuda wrote in a note.

Yasuda said, "Looking ahead, concerns such as rising component prices remain, and how the company will once again control costs will be the key point to watch."

According to research firm TrendForce, HBM shortages are fueling major risks for Nintendo as chipmakers prioritize AI data-center memory, potentially limiting console production.

Hence, our most recent note:

• "Do It Now": Industry Insiders Urge Consumers To Front-Run PC, TV, Smartphone Purchases As 'Memory Crunch' Will Intensify

Nintendo maintained full-year guidance:

• Sees FX assumption 150 yen/USD, saw 140

• Sees FX assumption 170 yen/EUR, saw 160

• Still sees operating income 370.00 billion yen, estimate 419.16 billion yen

• Still sees net income 350.00 billion yen, estimate 412.42 billion yen

• Still sees net sales 2.25 trillion yen, estimate 2.37 trillion yen

• Sees Switch 2 hardware sales 19.00 million units

• Sees Switch 2 software sales 48.00 million units

• Still sees original Switch hardware sales 4.00 million units

• Still sees original Switch software sales 125.00 million units

• Still sees dividend 181.00 yen, estimate 204.14 yen

While it may be a golden time for memory makers as prices skyrocket, it is only a matter of time before consumer electronics see price surges and even the risk of limited production. Welcome to the era of AI data centers: the HBM shortage is expected to persist into 2027.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 07:45

Chinese Oil Firms Turn To Iran To Replace Venezuelan Crude

Via The Cradle

China's teapot refiners are buying discounted Iranian crude to replace the loss of supplies from Venezuela following Washington's violent takeover of the South American nation's oil, Reuters reported Monday.

"The drawdown of Iranian oil held in storage is making up for the drop in Venezuelan supply to the world's largest crude importer," the news agency wrote, citing two people with knowledge of the matter.

via Reuters

Venezuelan oil shipments to China have fallen drastically since US President Donald Trump imposed a blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers attempting to leave the country in December.

On January 3rd, US forces bombed the Venezuelan capital, abducted Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro, and took control of the country's oil. Washington announced it was placing Venezuela's oil revenues in accounts in Qatar under White House control.

Trump has allowed global trading firms Vitol and Trafigura to sell up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil. However, Beijing-owned firm PetroChina has halted its oil purchases from Caracas amid the uncertainty.

Beijing's independent refiners have responded by stepping up purchases of Iranian heavy crude stored in bonded storage tanks in China and on ships at steep discounts, the sources told Reuters.

Additional Chinese purchases of Iranian Heavy and Pars crude grades are expected in February and March, one of the two sources added. The refiners can purchase Iranian Heavy crude at discounts of about $12 per barrel, as Iran is faced with few willing buyers due to US sanctions.

Russian Urals trade at a discount of $11 to $12 per barrel, also due to US sanctions. With Washington's permission, Vitol is offering Chinese buyers discounts of roughly $5 per barrel for Venezuelan crude.

China's imports of Venezuelan crude averaged 394,000 barrels per day (bpd), around four percent of Beijing's total seaborne crude imports, before the US takeover.

Years ago China imported almost no oil from Venezuela due to a lack of heavy crude refining facilities. Since the establishment of a strategic partnership between the two nations, China invested tens of billions to strengthen cooperation. Specifically, in 2023, the… pic.twitter.com/O8s7p2rxrq

— Bin Xie (@bxieus) January 7, 2026

On Saturday, Trump said India will begin buying Venezuelan oil, helping to replace the loss of Russian supplies amid US tariff threats. “We've already made that deal, the concept of the deal,” Trump told reporters while traveling aboard Air Force One.

Last year, after Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on countries buying Venezuelan oil, New Delhi stopped buying oil from Caracas. India and China have been forced to shift their purchases of oil in recent years due to aggressive sanctions on Russia, Venezuela, and Iran.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 07:20

Europe's Russian Gas Ban Is Set To Trigger New Wave Of LNG Tanker Demand

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

The European Union’s plan to ban LNG imports from Russia will prompt a surge in demand for LNG carriers to the tune of 30 new vessels, a senior Vortexa analyst said ahead of the LNG Qatar gathering that starts today.

According to Ashley Sherman, senior LNG analyst at the company, if the EU sanctions leave currently unsanctioned Yamal LNG free to deliver liquefied gas to European buyers, at least 30 new low ice-class or non-ice-class LNG carriers to satisfy demand for the fuel from the second-largest importing region after Asia.

In December last year, the European Union agreed a legally binding, gradual reduction in both LNG and pipeline gas imports from Russia, eventually resulting in a full ban on these exports, with the deadlines set for the end of 2026 for LNG and the autumn of 2027 for pipeline gas.

Last month, the European Council gave the final approval to the ban.

It also gave EU members until March to “prepare national plans to diversify gas supplies and identify potential challenges in replacing Russian gas.”

Hungary and Slovakia have protested the move on the grounds it would raise their energy costs to unacceptable levels.

The Yamal LNG facility, operated by Novatek, has been excluded from direct sanctions so far due to the Europea Union’s strong demand for gas, but the EU has sanctioned vessels loading from the Western Siberian LNG plant.

Novatek’s second LNG plant, however, Arctic LNG 2, along with Gazprom’s Portovaya LNG plant, are under Western sanctions.

They still export liquefied gas to China, despite the sanctions on both production facilities and LNG carriers servicing them.

Meanwhile, the EU imported record volumes of LNG last month amid harsh winter weather, with the total calculated at 12.7 billion cu m, Russia’s TASS news agency reported, citing figures from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 06:30

Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0? ...May Involve Russian Drones With Crosshairs On US Homeland

A Russian military-focused Telegram channel, Rybar, published an assessment that warned President Donald Trump's gunboat diplomacy and the re-posturing of the U.S. Department of War toward the Western Hemisphere could generate drone threat risks to the US Homeland

"Given how the Americans are acting now, the main question is not whether the United States will strike Cuba, but when and how it will do so. Cuba, along with Venezuela and Nicaragua, has long stood as an anti-American stronghold in the Caribbean region, and after the takeover of Maduro, U.S. interest has increased," Rybar wrote on its Telegram channel.

Rybar then laid out a scenario that, to us, suggests a Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0 in the making, in which it asked: "But what would the Cubans do in the event of a conflict? Let us hypothetically imagine that Havana decides to resist the Americans and chooses to fight. In that case, the already world-famous Geran strike drones could come to their aid."

Russia may deploy Geranium strike drones in Cuba, a move that could reshape deterrence and force Trump to reconsider his options. pic.twitter.com/ujYKnqzcAf

— Rybar in English (@rybar_en) January 30, 2026

To bring readers up to speed, Russian-made Geranium drones are a family of long-range loitering munitions, most commonly referring to the Geran-2, which is a version of Iran's Shahed-136. We have detailed how Russia has established domestic manufacturing plants to ramp up production, as well as the next iteration of these drones (read here).

The Geran-2 has a range of roughly 1,500 to 2,000 kilometers, carries a 30- to 50-kg high-explosive warhead, and is cheaper to produce than cruise missiles. One distinctive signature Ukrainians have learned to recognize is its sound: the drones are often described as lawn mowers in the sky.

Rybar noted the potential strike radius of the Geran-2 if such systems were positioned in Cuba, concluding that under this scenario that major oil and gas refineries, key military bases, data centers, and even Washington, DC would fall within the drone's strike envelope, representing a highly destabilizing escalation risk.

Rybar's Geran-2 threat map will likely cause major concern at State Department and DoW ...

We warned in recent days that trillions in dollars in CapEx will be spent on data centers worldwide, as per Morgan Stanley analyst Vishwanath Tirupattur's forecast, but Wall Street analysts largely end their analysis at the financing and construction of next-generation data centers, with limited discussion about modern security architecture required once these facilities are built and become instant high-value targets for non-state actors or foreign adversaries (read here). 

"Future wars will be wars of attrition, where autonomous systems fight one another, overwhelming technologically superior but low-inventory expensive systems. Protecting cities will require mass-produced, cost-comparable, networked solutions," Cameron Rowe of counter-UAS interceptor startup Sentradel told us.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 05:45

Governments Can Fix Money Fast. Here Is Why They Will Not Do It...

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The markets have been rocked by news of a possible intervention to control the Japanese yen slump, after it reached a forty-year low relative to the US dollar. Fixing the yen and any other fiat currency is simple: Implement an Austrian approach; eliminate constant deficit spending and monetization of government outlays; and implement clear, sound money policies that support the purchasing power of the currency.

Letting rates float and having zero deficit would help.

However, no government seems to want to control spending and eliminate constant artificial currency creation, even knowing that, by doing so, they would limit the risk of financial crises, excessive risk-taking, and erosion of citizens’ wage purchasing power.

The best a citizen can expect today is a mild form of Keynesianism that aims for lower taxes, relatively lower spending, and a constant expansion of money supply as the driver of economic growth. Even this “lesser evil” approach ends with malinvestment, financial crises, and more politicians demanding “public investment” as the solution.

Governments avoid sound money and controlling spending because these choices can hurt them politically right away, while using inflation and interventionist methods allows them to take a lot of wealth from citizens and give it to themselves and their favored industries.

Governments refer to the constant issuance of new currency that exceeds private sector demand as the “social use of money.” Inflationism is a tool to create dependency and limit individuals’ financial freedom.

Inflation is not an accident; it is a policy. The erosion of the purchasing power of the currency makes governments more powerful; they present themselves as the solution to the problems their policies create, and citizens have fewer tools to gain financial independence.

Governments and their “experts” constantly try to blame inflation on anything except what really creates it: monetary excess preceded by fiscal irresponsibility and uncontrolled deficit spending. Politicians point to “greedy companies,” “supply shocks,” or “external factors,” even to wage growth, as causes of inflation to hide the simple fact that issuing more currency than the private sector demands inevitably destroys its purchasing power.

Inflation is a de facto slow default and signals a constant loss of fiscal credibility for governments. High taxes and inflation become two sides of the same policy: controlling citizens and making them servants to an ever-rising bureaucratic power that rewards a few private enablers in the process.

This erosion is not neutral. It is a permanent, silent tax on real wages and savings that benefits the state, the most indebted agent in the economy, which can spend more than it receives. When governments double down on spending and central banks accommodate with quantitative easing and artificially low rates, there is a simple calculated transfer of wealth from the middle class to the public sector.

Central banks have become tools to maintain the government debt bubble rather than defenders of price stability, especially when they view such stability in an annual inflation increase based on a carefully selected basket that masks the true extent of currency debasement. The Fed’s panic in 2020-2024 is a clear signal of a monetary authority subordinating its mandate to the needs of the Treasury.

The ECB has followed a similar path, maintaining its anti-fragmentation tools, rolling over massive holdings of sovereign bonds and giving permanent support for highly indebted states such as France and Spain. Central banks will not oppose the government; instead, they will transfer the burden to consumers.

Governments never end inflation because they benefit from it.

High nominal growth, fueled by money printing and deficit spending, inflates tax revenues and masks the deterioration of real wages, while the real value of outstanding public debt is gradually dissolved.

Sound money, balanced budgets, and structural reforms require the elimination of clientelist spending, politically protected programs, and subsidy‑dependent sectors.

Sound money benefits the private sector and citizens. Inflationism makes the state larger and more powerful at the expense of families and businesses. Politicians consistently pledge “free” benefits, which ultimately result in increased inflation, reduced growth, and diminished productivity.

This is why, even as headline inflation moderates, citizens feel poorer and angrier. Governments created the inflation shock with massive stimulus at the peak of the cycle, then forced central banks to tighten late and aggressively, placing the full burden of adjustment on families, small businesses, and productive investment while public sectors remained largely untouched. The result is stagnation with high taxation and persistent inflation expectations—a slow‑motion confiscation of the middle class.

Refusing to adopt sound money is not an intellectual mistake but a political choice. Governments and central banks have built a framework that systematically sacrifices citizens’ real wages, savings, and freedom to preserve an ever‑larger, ever‑more‑indebted state. You pay.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 05:00

It's Time To Accept That Civil War 2.0 Has Already Started

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

In July of 1917 as the fires of WWI raged across Europe, the Russian city of Petrograd was facing its own special turmoil in the form of a large scale Bolshevik insurgency. Up to 500,000 protesters, agitators and provocateurs had entered the city from across the country, many of them armed. They took over large swaths of the metropolis, hijacked private vehicles and confiscated private buildings.

Some soviet leaders including Vladimir Lenin called the event “premature” and did not publicly endorse it, which may have been a calculated attempt to avoid direct blowback. The official historical explanation is that the insurrection had taken on a life of its own, but the stage had been set and the communist agitators got exactly what they wanted, what their strategy demanded:

Human sacrifice.

Clashes with government authorities led to hundreds of protester deaths and a handful of police casualties. The Russian government surged military forces into the region to arrest Bolshevik captains and the movement had to pull back. In the end, though, the primary goal of the insurgents had been achieved. Whether spontaneous or planned, the point of the communist methodology is always to trigger government violence which can then be used to create public sympathy and bolster the revolution.

The majority of “normies” don’t need to join the revolution, they just have to be convinced to stay out of the way. And that’s largely what happened a few months later in October of 1917 when the Red Terror began. What followed was five years of civil war.

The communists, who had long claimed to be innocent victims of the Tsarist “imperialism”, went on a murder spree as soon as they solidified their political power. Their ideological opponents were systematically rounded up and eliminated. There are no exact numbers on how many killings occurred because records were destroyed, but estimates suggest the revolutionaries and secret police arrested and executed around 1 million political dissidents in the first few years of communist rule.

This genocide, though, would pale in comparison to the 10 million deaths caused by the Russian Civil War. Not to mention the imprisonment and mass murder of millions of Christians by the atheist regime over the course of the next couple decades.

History rarely “repeats” but our modern political dynamic rings rather familiar. Many of the tactics used by the leftists in Russia in the early 20th Century are being used today in the US. In fact, I would argue they are almost exactly the same and that a Bolshevik-style revolution is happening right now.

Interestingly, the Bolsheviks were a tiny minority within the Russian population. At their peak in 1917 they had only 400,000 "official" members. They were supported politically by an estimated 23% of the population, but that is still a small movement compared to the 150 million Russian citizens trying to live their lives from day to day.

Had Russian conservatives (nationalists, Christians and defenders of private property rights) stood up and acted en masse to stop the Bolsheviks early in 1917, their society could have avoided the full scale murder that would befall them from 1918 onward. They might not have aligned perfectly with their existing government, but the communist alternative was so much worse.

Instead, the conservatives waited until agents of the Cheka were at their doorstep, and by that time it was too late to effectively fight back. As Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn depressingly noted in his book “The Gulag Archipelago”, the majority of Russians stood against Soviet rule but they did not have the courage to take up arms when it mattered most. And so, a minority of militant communists were able to dominate a nation of hundreds of millions. As Solzhenitsyn warned:

“We didn’t love freedom enough. And even more – we had no awareness of the real situation…We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.”

The communists, of course, did not achieve such success alone. As scholar Antony Sutton outlined with ample evidence in his book “Wall Street And The Bolshevik Revolution”, they enjoyed the financial and logistical backing of various global elites (from the Rockefellers to the Morgans to the Harrimans) through the course of the revolution and after their rise to power.

The purpose? To create the model for an atheist and relativistic authoritarian state. A system that the globalists intend to one day use to take over the entire world.

Their plan relies heavily on a lack of action by patriots. It could be a weakness, but the leftists have good reason to feel emboldened lately.

Civil War 2.0 has, in fact, already kicked off in the form of a well funded far-left insurrection much like what happened in 1917 Russia.

The lack of conservative organization in response has been less than impressive, and I’m here to give a warning: We are approaching the point of no return.

Activists are funded by a massive shell game of NGOs hidden behind other NGOs. They are coordinated by hidden online discord servers. They receive their orders and share information in the field through encrypted Signal chats. They are trained in agitation and disruption by anonymous online meet-ups run by covert activist coordinators.  They have engaged in violent attacks on ICE agents on hundreds if not thousands of occasions and few of them are ever prosecuted. This is not the behavior of a grassroots protest movement, this is the behavior of an army of covert operatives with special protections.

It’s important to understand that the “protests” are actually a highly coordinated guerrilla campaign – These are not sincere citizens exercising their civil rights.  For now their stated motivation is to stop deportations of illegal migrants, but this is just an excuse for their insurgency.  If ICE stopped operations tomorrow, the paid activists would simply fabricate another rationale for tearing the country apart.  Placating them will accomplish nothing.

They are hostile combatants trying to assert dominance and grow their numbers through posturing. Their goal is the destruction of the western world. This cannot be allowed.

The clear solution would be for the government to shut down hostile NGOs, however, these institutions are protected by corporate personhood and have the same constitutional rights as individual citizens. The process of investigating them and prosecuting them takes time – time we don’t have.

Even if Trump utilized the Insurrection Act and deployed the military, there are not enough troops to lock down more than a handful of US cities. Those people hoping that martial law will resolve the issue are kidding themselves. By extension, leftists stand to gain greater support: Martial law would represent proof to the rest of the world that the administration is indeed “fascist.”

The course of the war will not depend on government intervention, so don’t hold your breath waiting for effective enforcement. The reality is, most activist arrests end with them right back out on the street anyway. Their support apparatus has to be permanently removed, or THEY have to be permanently removed from the equation.

Everything will be decided by regular conservatives. If they organize in large numbers, if they create a funding apparatus to move people and supplies around the country quickly, and if they form proper leadership and training guidelines, then there might be a chance for peace simply by presenting a formidable deterrent. If not, at least the means to put down the insurgency will be available.

If conservatives stay at home and refuse to protect any piece of territory beyond their front gate, they will lose everything. It’s inevitable. The side that wants to win will always have an edge over the side that “just wants to be left alone.”

Protests will continue to spread to other cities using the same model we have seen recently in Minneapolis. NGOs will try to provoke more activist deaths at the hands of federal agents. The more the activists go unchecked by the general public the more emboldened they will become and the more their numbers will grow in the assumption that they are the majority.

In the event that the protests are stalled but the organizations are not crushed, activists will revert to assassinations and Weather Underground-style terror attacks until they demoralize the populace and gather strength again. The bottom line? If the political left is not made to truly FEAR consequences, they will not stop until they get their own Red Terror purge.

The end result is not going to be “balkanization.” That idea might have worked during the pandemic, but at this stage it’s far too late for a national divorce. The leftists will never allow conservatives to live in peace in red states. Letting blue cities rule over entire states of mostly red counties would only legitimize progressive extremists and hurt the conservative cause. This fight is for the entire country, not pieces of it.

It’s also not going to be a war of “factions”. This is prepper SHTF theory nonsense. The lines could not be more defined. The “false left/right paradigm” is a dead remnant of the Ron Paul era. It no longer exists, at least not where the bottom of the pyramid is concerned. The vast majority of progressives and Democrats are onboard with woke extremism. They’re onboard with the purge. They are loyal soldiers of globalism. Unity with them means enslavement.

Leftists, globalists and their allies are not going to discern between MAGA, libertarians and centrists. They will ultimately treat everyone as an enemy worthy of elimination.

They’re also not going to divide and in-fight the way some conservatives predict, at least not until they’ve gotten rid of us first.

In the end, the fate of the US and western civilization stands on the precarious shoulders of a conservative movement that has the means to fight, but not necessarily the will. They are forever waiting for the perfect Hollywood scenario in which they can defend themselves in good conscience in a fair fight where they are the clear and undeniable “good guy.” They are forever waiting for the perfect moment to rise up – A moment that will never come.

Patriots have also planned and trained for decades under the pretenses that conservatives would be the insurgents, not the counter-insurgency. Counter-insurgency is much more difficult and requires far more resources. But guess what? You don’t always get to choose the wars you fight. Sometimes the war chooses you and you have to adapt.

There are certainly individuals who will do what they can. I will be among them as will many of the people I know.

But the great question, the great unknown, the unpredictable factor is whether or not average Americans will step off their porches in large numbers and send a clear message that they will no longer tolerate the chaos.

*  *  *

If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 23:25

Watch: Russian Soldiers Surrender To Gun-Wielding Robot; Humanoid Warfare Nears

Video footage circulating on X from the Ukrainian front shows a Droid TW-7.62 ground robotic system, roughly half the size of a Mini Cooper, forcing the surrender of three Russian troops during an active military operation. The incident suggests that war robots are rapidly maturing, moving beyond support and logistics into offensive roles.

Futurism reports that Ukrainian defense robotics firm DevDroid's armed unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) forced the surrender of three Russian soldiers.

"The footage shows three Russian soldiers approaching one by one, removing their equipment, and lying down next to the UGV," the tech outlet wrote in a note, adding the UGV has a ballistic computer and artificial intelligence for autonomous detection, capture, and tracking of targets.

What is clear is that wheeled combat robots on the modern battlefield in Ukraine, used for offensive operations, could soon transition into humanoid robotic platforms.

California-based robotics startup Foundation is developing the Phantom humanoid robot for both commercial and military use.

The firm has stated ambitions to build tens of thousands of these humanoids, capable of carrying payloads and various weapon platforms, for use in dangerous missions, such as breaching buildings, and has secured defense contracts and interest from U.S. military programs.

Unlike other robotics companies such as Boston Dynamics, Agility Robotics, ANYbotics, Clearpath Robotics, Open Robotics, Unitree, and Figure AI, all of which have stated that their humanoids will not be used in military or defense applications, Foundation has stated otherwise.

Foundation's Phantom MK1 has been trained on the 9mm pistol.

CEO Sankaet Pathak confirmed Phantom MK1 has had weapons training in a recent conversation with tech blog Humanoids Daily.

According to Forbes, Foundation deployed 40 robots in 2025, with manufacturing expanding this year to 10,000, then to 50,000 by late 2027.

Given that Foundation is one of the very few, if not only, robotics firms in the US with a DoD contract specifically for an offensive humanoid combat robot, it wouldn't be a surprise if these bots were found on the Ukrainian battlefield for testing later this year.

Great time for a Polymarket bet on when Skynet arrives ... 

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 23:00

America At 250: The Words That Helped Ignite A Revolution

Authored by Gene Pisasale, via RealClearWire,

“... a thirst for absolute power is the natural disease of monarchy .... To the evil of monarchy we have added hereditary succession ... the first is a degradation and lessening of ourselves ... the second, claimed as a matter of right, is an insult and an imposition on posterity.”

- Thomas Paine, “Common Sense”

On Jan. 10, 1776, Robert Bell did something that could have landed him in prison for treason against King George III of England.

In his small shop on Third Street in downtown Philadelphia, Bell printed an incendiary 47-page pamphlet, published anonymously, calling for rebellion against the Crown and independence from Great Britain.

Its author was a little-known Englishman who had befriended Benjamin Franklin in London two years earlier.

Franklin was impressed with the man and recommended that he emigrate to the colonies, which he did that same year.

Arriving in America just five months before shots were fired at Lexington and Concord, Thomas Paine had a front row seat as the American Revolutionary War was unfolding.

Despite “the shot heard ’round the world” on April 19, 1775, calls for independence were relatively muted throughout the colonies, historians estimating that only about 25 percent of citizens supported the move.

That changed after “Common Sense” hit the streets, being widely read and discussed openly in taverns and coffeehouses throughout the land.

Within approximately one year, an estimated 100,000 copies were sold—a remarkable feat considering the population of America was only about 2.5 million.

After its widespread distribution, Paine’s words proved highly persuasive to tens of thousands across the colonies, nudging support for independence to well over 50 percent. Paine followed it up with an even more persuasive clarion call—“The American Crisis”—in December 1776, its words so grippingly effective that General George Washington had it read out loud to his troops in an attempt to keep his Army together:

“THESE are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.”

An Incredibly Risky Wager

As America had a miniscule Army and ineffective Navy in 1776—versus Great Britain with the most powerful Army in the western hemisphere and a colossally-equipped Navy, only the most aggressive wagerer would have made the bet that the colonies could prevail.

After the move for independence was put into writing on July 4, 1776, the die was cast.

The members of the Second Continental Congress understood that what they were hoping to achieve would be a “long shot” by any reasonable standard.

Early Losses, but Some Victories

King George III and his senior military officers had a lot to be optimistic about early on. The city of Boston was surrounded, then Crown forces took control of another major port—New York—and Washington’s troops were not only on the run—they were ragged, nearly starving, and dangerously low on supplies.

Retreating across the Delaware River to Pennsylvania, Washington knew he had to be bold to survive. With the help of financier Robert Morris and others, Washington received enough cash and materials to forge not only one, but two attacks that would change the way people viewed the war.

The Battle of Trenton on Dec. 26, 1776 and the Battle of Princeton on Jan. 3, 1777 were brilliantly conceived and stunningly successful victories at a time when the Commander knew his Army was near collapse. Being a deeply religious man who often visited local churches during the war, Washington was convinced that a “higher power” had kept his dream—what he called “the Cause”—alive.

A Leap in the Dark

Historian John Ferling captured the essence of this tumultuous era effectively in “A Leap in the Dark: The Struggle to Create the American Republic.” In the book, Ferling describes the “behind the scenes” workings of all the major players, noting their strengths, their weaknesses, and their own doubts about whether they could possibly succeed.

That Washington’s Army was desperate for a victory to end the conflict is an understatement.

Most days they were just hoping to find food and stay on their feet. Though the Continental Army had eked out a few wins, the odds still favored the British. The war would drag on until British General Cornwallis found himself in deep trouble in Virginia, getting surrounded by Washington’s as well as France’s troops and warships leading up to the climactic Battle of Yorktown in October 1781.

A World-Changing Event

Though it may be apocryphal, when Cornwallis surrendered, it has been reported that the British troops were so stunned, they played the English ballad “The World Turned Upside Down” as they relinquished the battlefield to Washington—who literally “by the grace of God” had managed to survive.

The soldiers who had stood by Washington from the beginning, through the defeats in New York and Philadelphia, the horrendous freezing Winters at Valley Forge and Morristown, surely felt in their veins what those assembled in downtown Philadelphia had written on July 4th: “... with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.”

Considering the overwhelming odds against us, it is not a stretch to say that the words to the tune written decades later were true: “America! America! God shed His grace on thee ...”

Looking back 250 years, it becomes clear that the sacred fire of liberty which burned in those hearty souls was not only a flame that couldn’t be extinguished—it was an idea which was destined to change the world.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 22:35

Revolving Green Door: Former Biden Officials Landed Jobs With Environmental NGOs After Funneling Money To Them

As the Trump administration's Department of Energy moves to wipe out over $83 billion in "Green New Scam" loans and conditional commitments approved in the final months of the Biden administration, a new analysis reveals that not only did the rush to spend accelerate right after Biden's disastrous June 27, 2024 debate with now-President Donald Trump, senior Biden officials landed roles at organizations that received agency funding. In some cases, money was steered to NGOs that the officials worked for before joining the government - where they then returned following the cash bonanza. 

Following the debate where Biden revealed how cooked he is, nonprofit watchdog Democracy Restored found that billions of dollars began rushing out the door to over a dozen environmental and climate-focused NGOs, including that Alliance for Sustainable Energy, Climate United Fund, the Ocean Conservancy, the Nature Conservancy, and Rocky Mountain Institute, according to Just the News. 

Using data from USASpending.gov, Democracy Resorted found that federal agencies had obligated more than $600 million in taxpayer money to these organizations since July 1, 2024. The obligations began to drop the day after the election. Obligations to these same organizations since Nov. 5, 2024 fell to $246 million. 

While various agencies were providing millions in support to these organizations, high-level officials within the agencies either went to work for them after Trump took office, or they had previously worked for them prior to assuming key roles at the agencies under Biden. -JTN

Using data from USASpending.gov, Democracy Restored found that federal agencies obligated more than $600 million to environmental and climate-focused nonprofits beginning July 1, 2024 — including the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, Climate United Fund, Ocean Conservancy, Nature Conservancy, and Rocky Mountain Institute.

That flow of taxpayer cash slowed dramatically after the election. Since Nov. 5, 2024, obligations to the same organizations dropped to $246 million, according to the watchdog group.

At the same time, Democracy Restored identified a pattern that raised eyebrows: senior federal officials moving into roles at organizations that received agency funding — or having previously worked for them before holding key government posts.

I think the money being shoveled out after President Biden’s debate and the apparent revolving door of appointees going to recipients of these federal funds raises many questions about the timing of the money, the impact of special interests in the Biden administration and the general ethics surrounding this behavior," said Houston Keene, director of Democracy Restored, in comments to Just the News.

Loan office under fire

Scrutiny has focused on the Department of Energy’s Loans Programs Office, now renamed the Office of Energy Dominancy Financing.

In August 2024, the DOE awarded the World Resources Institute a $1 million grant aimed at supporting school bus fleet electrification training and collaboration.

Two former senior DOE officials are now senior fellows at the institute: Jigar Shah, who served as director of the Loans Programs Office, and Jennifer Wilcox, who was principal deputy assistant secretary at the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management.

Jigar Shah attends the 2024 TIME100 Gala (Dimitrios Kambouris/Getty Images for TIME)

Shah’s tenure has drawn particular attention. The Washington Free Beacon reported in May that the Loans Programs Office approved a loan to Plug Power, a New York-based green hydrogen company, in May 2024.

According to the repoprt Shah’s private equity firm previously invested $100 million in Plug Power, and the company once described the firm as a “longstanding partner.” Shah told the Beacon that he did not work directly on Plug Power’s loan and said the company applied before he joined the office.

An Office of Inspector General audit released in December found that 20% of Loans Programs Office employees reviewed had a potential conflict of interest - or the appearance of impaired impartiality - while performing their duties.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright testified in May that the office issued roughly $40 billion in loans over the prior 15 years, but that figure ballooned to $100 billion in just the final 76 days of the Biden administration. Wright said those rushed loan agreements lacked safeguards traditionally required by the DOE.

The revolving door keeps spinning

Democracy Restored’s review identified other examples of officials cycling between government agencies and nonprofit recipients.

Renee Stone, formerly in senior leadership roles at NOAA, now serves as vice president of climate for the Audubon Society. During the Biden administration, Audubon received nearly $4 million across three grants for habitat restoration projects.

Monica Medina, another former NOAA official, is now a distinguished fellow at Conservation International, which received a $9 million grant in 2023 for an ecosystem restoration project in Hawaii.

Chetan Hebbale, once a policy adviser in the White House, later joined the Nature Conservancy as a climate and conservation finance policy adviser. The organization received more than $6 million in federal funding during Biden’s term.

Federal ethics law restricts certain post-government actions by former senior officials, but it does not prohibit them from accepting employment with private or nonprofit organizations — even those that received government funding.

Keene emphasized that there is no evidence any of these individuals directly worked on the grants in question, but said the relationships warrant closer examination.

Offshore wind ties raise questions

The Biden administration’s aggressive push for 30 gigawatts of offshore wind also drew scrutiny.

Oceans Conservancy, a vocal supporter of offshore wind expansion, received nearly $6 million in two grants from NOAA during the Biden years. The group has also received support from Orsted, a major offshore wind developer.

Susan Ruffo, who previously served as managing director of international initiatives at Oceans Conservancy, later worked for NOAA and other federal agencies.

“I think it says a lot about the stewardship of tax dollars under the Biden administration,” Keene said. “If you were an organization that agreed with the administration politically, they weren’t afraid to cut you a check. That’s a problem for the taxpayer.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 22:10

Clintons Bend The Knee To Comer, Agree To Testify In House Epstein Inquiry

Just hours after Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) rebuffed Bill and Hillary Clinton's attorney's last-ditch conditional offer, the former president and former secretary of state appear to have acquiesced and agreed to key demands from the Republican-led House Oversight Committee to testify about Jeffrey Epstein in a closed-door deposition.

The initial correspondence, obtained by CNN, revealed that the Clintons’ team has been in search of an off-ramp for days.

Attorneys for Bill and Hillary have been in discussion with the Republican-led committee multiple times since lawmakers from both parties voted in January to hold the Clintons in contempt for refusing to appear for in-person depositions as part of the panel’s investigation into Epstein.

“It has been nearly six months since your clients first received the Committee’s subpoena, more than three months since the original date of their depositions, and nearly three weeks since they failed to appear for their depositions commensurate with the Committee’s lawful subpoenas,” Comer wrote.

“Your clients’ desire for special treatment is both frustrating and an affront to the American people’s desire for transparency.”

As CNN reports, according to the letter dated January 31, the Clintons’ lawyers laid out the terms under which the former president would sit for a voluntary, transcribed interview.

He would sit for four hours in New York City for an interview limited to the scope of the Epstein probe, they said.

Lawmakers from both parties and their staff could ask questions, and the lawyers said both the Clintons and the committee could have their own transcriber present, according to the letter.

Comer rejected the offer from the Clintons’ attorneys as “unreasonable” and said he could not accept such terms.

He could not agree, he said, to changing the interview from a sworn deposition to a voluntary interview, and rejected the way in which the attorneys sought to limit the interview’s scope. 

“But given that he has already failed to appear for a deposition and has refused for several months to provide the Committee with in-person testimony, the Committee cannot simply have faith that President Clinton will not refuse to answer questions at a transcribed interview, resulting in the Committee being right back where it is today,” the Kentucky Republican wrote.

By rejecting the Clintons’ initial offer, Comer had all but ensured that the House would hold a final vote this week on the contempt resolutions.

“Your clients’ desire for special treatment is both frustrating and an affront to the American people’s desire for transparency,” Mr. Comer wrote in a letter to the Clintons’ lawyers on Monday that was also obtained by The New York Times.

Indeed, as The NYTimes reports, after some Democrats on the panel joined Republicans in a vote to recommend charging them with criminal contempt, an extraordinary first step in referring them to the Justice Department for prosecution, the Clintons ultimately waved the white flag and agreed to fully comply with Mr. Comer’s demands.

In an email sent to Mr. Comer on Monday evening, attorneys for the Clintons said their clients would “appear for depositions on mutually agreeable dates” and asked that the House not move forward with a contempt vote, which had been slated for Wednesday.

However, it was not immediately clear Monday evening whether Comer would accept the Clintons' terms and, subsequently, whether the contempt votes would still take place.

Comer said:

"The Clintons' counsel has said they agree to terms, but those terms lack clarity yet again and they have provided no dates for their depositions. The only reason they have said they agree to terms is because the House has moved forward with contempt."

"I will clarify the terms they are agreeing to and then discuss next steps with my committee members," Comer said in a statement.

For Mr. Clinton to testify in the Epstein investigation would be nearly unprecedented.

No former president has appeared before Congress since 1983, when President Gerald R. Ford did so to discuss the celebration of the 1987 bicentennial of the enactment of the Constitution.

When Mr. Trump was subpoenaed in 2022 by the select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol, after he had left office, he sued the panel to try to block it. The panel ultimately withdrew the subpoena.

It was a victory for the Republican chairman, shifting the focus of his panel’s Epstein investigation onto prominent Democrats who once associated with the disgraced financier and his longtime companion, Ghislaine Maxwell.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 21:20

Israel Surrenders To The Truth: Admits 70,000 Killed In Gaza

Via Brian McGlinchey at Stark Realities

Throughout the Israel Defense Forces' post-Oct 7 war on Gaza, the State of Israel and its collaborators and sympathizers around the world have ridiculed the alarming death toll maintained by Palestinian health authorities, dismissing the count as a gross exaggeration aimed at maliciously demonizing Israel. Now, after more than two years of casting doubts, the IDF has finally admitted its own estimates match the Gaza Health Ministry’s accounting of some 70,000 confirmed dead.

It’s a grand example of Israel’s long-running practice of vehemently denying accusations — and vilifying accusers — before eventually acknowledging their validity. Those acknowledgements usually come after overwhelming evidence has been produced, by which time the denials have provided some degree of protection for Israel’s standing. Where the Gaza death toll is concerned, the IDF’s capitulation seems to some extent preemptive, in anticipation of an eventual opening of Gaza to journalists from around the world. However, the long string of denials helped muddy the waters, giving Israel and its allies a degree of cover as the IDF’s astonishing death-and-destruction blitz was carried out.

Palestinians bury war dead in a mass grave (via Egypt Today)

The IDF’s admission came in a Thursday briefing given to reporters by a senior military official. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the official said approximately 70,000 people have died in Gaza since the Oct 7, 2023 invasion of Israel by Hamas militants. As of Sunday, Gaza health officials say 71,795 have died.

Importantly, both the IDF official and the Gaza Health Ministry says these numbers do not include bodies yet to be discovered under the incomprehensible volume of rubble across Gaza. The Gaza ministry says its numbers only reflect deaths directly resulting from military fire, excluding those who’ve died from disease and malnutrition.

Neither party has yet broken down the death toll into combatants and civilians. However, leading up to the October ceasefire, the IDF said it had killed at least 22,000 combatants in Gaza. Placed atop this week’s 70,000 denominator, that claim now suggests that civilians account for a significant majority of those killed by the IDF. Netanyahu has boasted that the Gaza campaign has achieved the “lowest ratio of civilian to combatant deaths in the history of modern urban warfare.” However, an IDF report leaked in August concluded that 83% of Palestinians killed by Israeli forces were civilians.

The mere fact that the Gaza Health Ministry is part of a Hamas government was all that Israel’s and its proxies and supporters needed to promote the assumption that the ministry’s death tally was a lie — and to buy time for Israel to continue its shattering of Gaza, with financial, military and diplomatic backing of the the United States and other Western governments.

Palestinians carry the bodies of children killed by an IDF strike on a shelter in Gaza City (Hadi Daoud / APA Images)

“The Biden administration, Congress, and the U.S. media played along with Israel’s lies and deception about the horrific death toll in Gaza — over 80 percent civilians; over half, women and children — so that they could gaslight Americans into continued support for Israel,” Sarah Leah Whitson, executive director of human rights group DAWN, told the Intercept after the IDF’s capitulation on the death toll.

President Biden was among the first to who sought to discredit the fatality figures coming from Gaza. “I have no notion that the Palestinians are telling the truth about how many people are killed,” Biden told a reporter 18 days after Oct 7, when Gaza authorities had already reported more than 6,000 dead from IDF fire. “I have no confidence in the number that the Palestinians are using.”

Attacks on the Health Ministry’s fatality reporting came from every type of Israel supporter, from politicians to network-TV “analysts” to think tanks and individual social media users. The Intercept’s Jonah Valdez assembled a catalogue of such criticism; here’s a sampling:

• “Every day, Hamas churns out misinformation. They inflate casualty numbers and make false accusations to smear Israel’s reputation,” said Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer.

• “The data that we hear from Hamas is way, way exaggerated, the number of actually purely innocent civilians that have been killed are a tiny fraction,” said Alan Dershowitz, the Israel-promoting lawyer and law professor.

• “Validating the public health arm of Hamas is like validating the public health arms of Al Qaeda and ISIS or the public health arms of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan,” said New York Rep. Ritchie Torres.

• Decrying the media citations of Health Ministry data, the Anti-Defamation League said the Hamas-controlled ministry “distorts information about the casualties in Gaza.”

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a thinly-disguised component of the sprawling Israel lobby, criticized the Biden White House for eventually giving some credence to the Gaza Health Ministry’s reporting. “As a result of trusting numbers from a Hamas-controlled entity, the Biden administration has become more focused on the restraints it can put on Israeli forces than how it can help accelerate Hamas’s defeat,” said senior fellow David Adesnik.

Efforts to suppress the Gaza Health Ministry’s death toll went far beyond pointed rhetoric. In 2024, Israel-catering Republicans and Democrats in the US House passed an amendment that would have barred the State Department from citing the numbers. While it didn’t become law, a similar measure in the defense bill enacted later that year made it illegal for the Pentagon to cite the Health Ministry’s fatality numbers as “authoritative.” It’s doubtful that, in the wake of the IDF’s admission, a repeal is now in the offing.

Israel’s heavy use of 2,000-pound bombs in densely-populated areas — something Western militaries avoid — has figured heavily in Gaza’s enormous death toll (Reuters)

Throughout the war, many third parties — from new bureaus to the World Health Organization and researchers at Johns Hopkins — deemed the Gaza Health Ministry numbers legitimate, based on analysis of the ministry’s detailed reporting, and the ministry’s record of accuracy over previous Israeli military campaigns.

Last summer, a Pentagon insider quietly said that, despite public statements by spokespeople and top officials, the US government believed the Health Ministry’s reporting too. “Along with the World Health Organization and United Nations, we (Department of Defense, Department of State and the U.S. Intelligence Community) consider the Gaza Health Ministry figures to be generally reliable (though not precise),” wrote Army Col Nathan McCormack in a comment exchange on X, using a semi-anonymous, personal account.

In a 2023 reply to another X user, McCormack wrote, “Israel’s responses always (always—not hyperbole) disproportionately target Palestinian civilians.” In June 2025, after Jewish News Syndicate publicized these posts and others that were sharply critical of Israel, McCormack was forced out of his Israel-and-Levant-focused role supporting the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Beyond dismissing the top-line number of deaths reported by the Gaza Health Ministry, Israel has also denied credible accusations that IDF soldiers have frequently and deliberately targeted civilians. In addition to the accounts of Palestinians, accusations have also poured forth from American and European doctors who’ve voluntarily traveled to Gaza and worked in its bombed and blood-splattered hospitals.

“I have two children that I have photographs of, that were shot so perfectly in the chest I couldn’t put my stethoscope over their heart more accurately — and directly on the side of the head, in the same child,” Dr. Mark Perlmutter, a Jewish orthopedic surgeon in North Carolina and vice president of the International College of Surgeons, told CBS Sunday Morning. “No toddler gets shot twice by mistake by the ‘world’s best sniper.’ And they’re dead-center shots.”

Surgeon, Dr. Mark Perlmutter, on what he witnessed in his first month in Gaza. On @CBSSunday

“No toddler gets shot twice by mistake by the world’s best sniper.” pic.twitter.com/wAoRWaNngo

— Samira Mohyeddin سمیرا (@SMohyeddin) July 22, 2024

Twenty other visiting doctors confirmed Perlmutter’s characterization of the IDF’s conduct. One, also an American, said he couldn’t believe what he was seeing on CT scans — “that this many children could be admitted to a single hospital with gunshot wounds to the head." Other groups of doctors have given similar testimonies to other outlets. Israel has said the claim of IDF soldiers targeting civilians is “entirely unfounded and is categorically rejected.”

Israel has also denied widespread reports —substantiated by video — that soldiers shot at civilians gathering at aid distribution points set up last May as malnutrition surged in Gaza and global outrage mounted. By August, more than 1,300 Palestinians were reportedly killed as they sought aid. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called such claims an antisemitic “blood libel.” However, enlisted soldiers and officers told Haaretz that lethal fire was routinely used to control crowds. Said one:

"It's a killing field. Where I was stationed, between one and five people were killed every day. They're treated like a hostile force – no crowd-control measures, no tear gas – just live fire with everything imaginable: heavy machine guns, grenade launchers, mortars. Then, once the center opens, the shooting stops, and they know they can approach. Our form of communication is gunfire."

Other whistleblowers said the IDF routinely killed civilians by dropping hand grenades from modified commercial drones on anyone who wandered into areas of Gaza that were declared off-limits by Israel — even though those forbidden areas weren’t marked on the ground. The IDF campaign has also been marked by attacks on hospitals and ambulances, including an incident where soldiers fired on Palestinian emergency vehicles without provocation, then crushed the vehicles and buried them with bulldozers. The IDF’s initial claim that the vehicles had acted suspiciously were belied by video captured by one of the men killed by Israeli fire.

Then there’s Israel’s relentless bombing that systematically rendered vast swaths of Gaza uninhabitable. The Israeli government condemned accusations that it was engaged in an ethnic cleansing campaign, but those denials fly in the face of explicit statements by senior members of Israel’s government.

“Within a few months...Gaza will be totally destroyed,” Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich assured a West Bank settlers conference last May. “The Gazan citizens will be concentrated in the south. They will be totally despairing, understanding that there is no hope and nothing to look for in Gaza, and will be looking for relocation to begin a new life in other places.”

RAFAH, GAZA BEFORE & AFTER.

-TRT World pic.twitter.com/EusxcxEHdP

— International Defence Analysis (@Defence_IDA) July 3, 2025

After the Times of Israel and Haaretz reported the IDF senior official’s validation of Gaza’s death-toll numbers, an IDF spokesman attempted to deflect attention, using social media to say “the details published do not reflect official IDF data.” Stopping short of categorically refuting the official’s statements, the post seemed to reflect an IDF irked that an official prematurely spilled the beans without permission. “Any publication or report on this matter will be released through official and orderly channels,” the post concluded.

If and when the IDF finally lets foreign journalists roam in Gaza, we’ll likely see even more validation of war-crime accusations. As international criminal lawyer Jonathan Meta wrote in a weekend opinion piece at the Times of Israel, “If, for two years, a number was dismissed as propaganda, and then, suddenly, treated as a close approximation, what else was waved away not because it was false, but because it was inconvenient?”

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Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 20:55