Zero Hedge

"Hard Crash": Construction Jobs In Philadelphia Set To Plunge As Residential Projects Hit A Wall

"Hard Crash": Construction Jobs In Philadelphia Set To Plunge As Residential Projects Hit A Wall

Construction jobs in Philadelphia could plunge soon as a result of a "glut" of residential projects finishing up with questionable demand waiting behind them, according to a new report from BisNow

In fact, some developers are calling for a "hard crash" after a rush to capitalize on the city's 10-year tax abatement program "temporarily sent activity into the stratosphere".

Construction is bustling along the city’s main thoroughfares as teams tackle a large backlog of projects permitted before the expiration of a key tax abatement program in January 2022. Over 26,000 units were approved in 2021, a significant increase from 2020, with the work expected to conclude within the next 18 months, the report says

Driven by low interest rates and the rush to meet the tax break deadline, a surge in construction began in 2022. Last year saw over 10,000 units hit the market, with another 16,000 upscale units expected to finish in the next 18 months.

However, new housing permits have dipped significantly, with only 949 issued in January and 986 in February across the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington region, per census data.

Vince Jolly, founder and president of CVA Commercial Group, said: “It's not even anticipating a downturn. The downturn's already here.” 

He continued, telling BisNow: “I think construction workers, obviously, are going to get hit hard. Because once these jobs dry up, I mean, what else are they going to do?"

Construction employment in the city increased by 1.5% from 2021 to 2023, with 121,000 local workers in the trade by late last year, according to census data. However, new apartment construction starts have dropped over 30% from their late 2022 peak, and 99 projects comprising 17,000 units have been halted at the proposal stage, as per CoStar data.

The Riverwards Group Managing Partner Mo Rushdy commented: “That glut of apartments will solve itself, let's say, by May 2025. The real problem is, No. 1, jobs. We hear from our friend in the trade unions and from others that projects are going to dry up in terms of the residential industry and when it comes to new jobs coming from the pipeline of ’26 and ’27.”

“I'll tell you from experience, we're not even seeking financing,” Rushdy added.

“I see the bigger players are starting to be impacted. Companies that were very profitable for the past couple of years are barely making it,” Calvin Snowden, founder and managing partner of Philadelphia-based construction management firm BDFS Group said.

“I’m an engineer, not an economist, [but] I know there’s a problem. I know the interest rates have to come down since the projects don’t make sense anymore. The numbers just don’t work.”

Despite nearly 100 multifamily projects being put on hold, such as Alterra Property Group's 352-unit building in University City, some large projects are continuing. Notably, Tower Investments is progressing with its 1,111-unit project in Center City, which represents 6.5% of all units currently under construction in the metro area and is the nation's 11th-largest ongoing apartment project.

However, large projects are becoming rare. Mark Cartella of Alterra Group suggests that the industry may see a decline in large-scale projects before smaller ones. Meanwhile, redevelopments are driving activity for Benchmark Construction Group, with projects underway in Fishtown and other areas of high demand like South and North Philadelphia, focusing on both new construction and existing housing.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/21/2024 - 14:35

Judge Who Handed Down $454 Million Trump Penalty Set To Rule On Validity Of Reduced Bond

Judge Who Handed Down $454 Million Trump Penalty Set To Rule On Validity Of Reduced Bond

Authored by Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times,

After weeks of trying to secure a bond and arguing to an appeals court that a $454 million bond was “impossible,” former President Donald Trump secured a $175 million bond to stay judgment only to now have to make the case all over again why this should satisfy the New York Attorney General and stop her from seizing his properties.

On April 22, New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron, the trial court judge who set the $454 million judgment, will hear the attorney general’s challenge to the sufficiency of President Trump’s bond.

The $175 million figure had been set by the appellate division of the New York Supreme Court, and President Trump has frequently criticized Justice Engoron for “ignoring” appeals court orders, such as when he allowed evidence past the statute of limitations set by the appellate division during the trial.

Who’s Backing the Bond?

The attorney general has sought to cast doubt on the stability of LA-based Knight Specialty Insurance Company (KSIC), calling it a “small insurer” and arguing it is not authorized to do business in New York.

They argued that KSIC has never before written a surety bond, and has “a total policyholder surplus of just $138 million.”

Amit Shah, president of the insurance company, demanded the court compel the attorney general to show cause, or prove the allegation that the insurance company is not sufficient.

Mr. Shah submitted a sworn affidavit explaining that KSIC now has control over a bank account of President Trump’s that will maintain $175 million cash for the duration of the appeal. The insurance company entered into a collateral agreement with the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust. Mr. Shah submitted documents establishing that his company is in “good standing” and was approved for excess line eligibility in New York in June 2021.

“As an eligible excess line insurer in the state of New York, KSIC is, therefore, properly authorized to issue the surety on behalf of Defendants,” he stated.

This authorization stands as long as the insurance company meets the Excess Line Association of New York’s requirement of maintaining a minimum $47 million policyholder surplus, and Mr. Shah stated his company is maintaining a $48 million surplus minimum.

He added that as of the end of 2023, the insurance company had $539 million in assets and $138 in equity, and its parent company, Knight Insurance Company, had on a consolidated basis $1 billion in assets and $1 billion in equity. The parent company also maintains $56 million in cash and $937 million in marketable securities to support reinsurance obligations.

“At my direction, KSIC also performed diligence to confirm its legal authority to act as surety before issuing the subject bond,” Mr. Shah stated.

“Although KSIC had not before placed a surety bond in New York, KSIC is an excess line insurer in the state of New York.”

The attorney general also took issue with the fact that KSIC does not have “exclusive right” to the account containing $175 million in cash, and highlighted the fact that it would need “two days’ notice” to move that cash.

State attorneys urged the court to “not rely on KSIC’s financial summary” because the insurance company “sends 100% of its retained insurance risk to affiliates in the Cayman Islands,” which they argued “artificially bolsters its surplus.”

They argued that excess line insurers are only authorized if the management is found “trustworthy and competent,” and KSIC did not qualify because “its management has been found by federal authorities to have operated affiliated companies within KSIC’s holding company structure in violation of federal law on multiple occasions within the past several years.”

Knight is under The Hankey Group of financial companies, which includes the affiliate Westlake Financial Services LLC. The attorney general argued that Westlake was found to have “violated numerous federal laws by pressuring borrowers through the use of illegal debt collection tactics, including using phony caller ID information, falsely threatening to refer borrowers for investigation or criminal prosecution” in 2015 by the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The company was fined and provided $44 million in restitution to consumers.

The attorney general is requesting that President Trump be required to post a replacement bond within seven days.

30 Companies Said No

The bond required was originally $454 million, but attorneys for President Trump argued that they had employed four brokers who for weeks negotiated with the largest sureties in the world to no avail.

Some 30 companies would not fill the bond, they argued, because sureties normally will not take hard assets—like real estate, Trump Organization’s primary asset—as collateral.

Instead, they would require the bond amount in cash, plus additional premiums given the unusually large size, totaling to what they estimated to be more than $550 million cash.

On the eve of the deadline for posting bond, President Trump took to social media to claim that he had close to $500 million in cash, but had planned to use much of it on his reelection campaign and did not want to hand it over to a New York court as he fights to keep his buildings.

He further claimed in a follow-up press conference that the $454 million figure was one the attorney general and judge arbitrarily settled on because they had seen a number similar to it in his bank accounts, which have been disclosed to the court during the course of the civil fraud case.

The attorney general had originally sought $250 million, which increased to about $370 million by the end of the trial. Plus backdated interest, President Trump was ordered to pay $454 million in all.

Trump attorneys submitted a sworn affidavit from one of the brokers hired to negotiate the $454 million bond, who explained that in the surety world, $100 million was a large bond, and hardly issued to private individuals. He stated that only a “handful” of sureties are even authorized by the federal government to issue bonds that big, and many had internal policies limiting bonds they issue to $100 million. He also affirmed that sureties do not take hard assets as collateral, because they are not designed to quickly liquidate them in the event a bond has to be paid.

The attorney general urged the court not to take these affidavits at face value, calling into question the lawyer and broker’s credibility by claiming they had prior connections with President Trump. The state attorneys suggested that the reason President Trump could not fill the bond was instead because his companies may not be in as good standing as he claimed.

Trump attorneys pointed out that a court-appointed monitor has given the attorneys and court full access to Trump Organization finances since 2022, and the finances have been transparent.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/21/2024 - 14:00

Should I Stay Or Should I Go?

Should I Stay Or Should I Go?

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Should I Stay or Should I Go?

Coming up for air after what was an intense week on the geopolitical and market side of things, I’m really being forced to reconsider my current recommendations (bearish bonds, stocks, and credit).

I keep thinking:

If I go, there will be trouble
And if I stay, it will be double

Bearish rates has worked well from the start. We turned negative on credit right near the lows, so that too has worked. On equities, by the time we turned bearish, it definitely moved against us. We had some drawdowns, and they seesawed back and forth between potentially making sense and looking very stupid (sometimes, on the same day). Well, the Nasdaq 100 (the main focus of our ire) is now down 7% since April 11th (6 trading days). We saw a rather nasty 2% drop on Friday (even after it had largely recovered from overnight Geopolitical concerns) and is now only up 1%. Our call had been that the market was highly susceptible to a rapid 5% to 10% decline, which we stretched to 10% as it continued to “defy” gravity. Remember, for all the hype about “all-time highs” and “tech is all you need”, the Nasdaq 100 closed above 18,300 all the way back on March 1st and barely got any higher than that in what is now almost 2 months.

We’ve updated this chart since we sent it around in an “informal” report, and the story is even more bleak, though not as bleak as it would have been had the markets closed at 3:45pm when this index was below 17,000.

Based on closing pricing, no one who bought the Nasdaq 100 since January 18th has made money. If you started the year long, you are now sitting on a relatively measly 1% gain – which just does not seem at all consistent with the hype.

In Thursday’s T-Report – We Can Drive it Home, With One Headlight, we reiterated our bearish views, while devoting much of the space to the section “AI valuations seem questionable.” There are some big stocks (some in the AI space) down around 10%. If you are keeping track at home, the leveraged single stock ETF that has caught my attention actually had net inflows on Friday, despite being down 20% - indicating that we haven’t seen a wipe out. I also distinctly remember headline after headline when we had record-setting market cap gains for individual companies, yet crickets on what had to be a historic drop in market cap. Another sign that we have not seen a washout.

But before we go through our analysis and recommendations coming into this week, I have to admit, “Should I Stay or Should I Go” isn’t close to being my favorite song by the Clash. But, I’ve already used “Magnificent Seven”, “Clampdown” seemed too harsh, “Lost in the Supermarket” would have made more sense when inflation was spiking, and “Death or Glory” sadly seems destined to pop up in a piece on geopolitics (the way the world is going). I did want to do I Fought the NDX and I Won, but the Clash cover stuck to the traditional title, and it was the Dead Kennedys who changed it to “I won” rather than “the law won.” But in the end it hasn’t been a resounding win, and I didn’t want to jinx myself too badly if I come out still bearish (spoiler alert, I am).

Equities

Today we will focus on what is “new” as the bear case was well covered in the previously referenced One Headlight piece.

The most bullish thing I can say is that equities are now 5% to 7% cheaper than a week or so ago. So, if you were planning on “backing up the truck” and loading up on stocks, you have that opportunity. You literally have missed nothing by not being massively overweight the Nasdaq 100 since the start of the year. Two issues fighting this come to mind:

  • There have been multiple small dips this year, so how much dip buying capacity remains?
  • My view is that when people say “I would load the boat if that stock drops 5%”, what they really mean is “I would load the boat if that stock drops 5% in otherwise calm markets, for no apparently good reason, basically letting me buy the same story, but 5% cheaper”. Well, the story and market dynamics have changed. Geopolitical risk has risen. Questions about valuation, easily dismissed when stocks seemed to be up every day (they weren’t but that was the narrative), are not so easily dismissed. As the chart highlights, anyone who bought this year is now likely under water on their new investments in this index (or ETFs like QQQ). Don’t get me started on ARKK, my “go to” proxy for “innovation” and “disruption,” which is down 20% on the year now. I will admit, Bitcoin might be a haven for some of the riskiest risk takers, as it is up strongly on the year, though it too has done very little (except cost buyers money) since the end of February. The “halving” is supposed to take it to the next level. How paying someone 50% less (for the same work that they did) helps the price is beyond me. I mean, I get the miners in particular are incentivized to jack up prices, but the “bitcoin always goes higher after the halving” arguments are based on such a small sample size, that I think it will not work this time as the entire crypto universe seems to think it will.

But anyways, I digress, I just think that enough has changed and enough dips have been bought, that there is no trove of “rescue” money about to flood the market with new buying liquidity.

Since AI remains too important, I will add one thing to the laundry list from Thursday:

  • Using Google trends, searches for things like ChatGPT are down and declining. Same for some broader themes on AI. You cannot have FOMO without the Fear of Missing Out and I don’t think we are ripe with Fear any longer. If anything, maybe it is the fear that valuations have gotten ahead of themselves.

Earnings will be important, and we will get several from very important companies this week.

  • Maybe it is my imagination (it could be, since there are few data points so far), but the “reaction function” to earnings seems to have changed. As we rallied late last year and at the start of this year, it seemed that the market focused on positives and dismissed negatives. It also seemed to rally on the “same” news, day after day. One stock in a sector would report positives and the market would take the sector significantly higher. A day or two later another company in the sector would give the market something to cheer about and the entire sector would pop again. Wasn’t some of that good news already priced in? I believe we have much higher hurdles this time and the markets are looking for excuses to sell, rather than to buy. I could be wrong on the reaction function or earnings could all beat by so much that we get a reversal, but I’m skeptical on that.

Think like an algo.

  • I tend to be a “profit” taker (and “double downer”). When things work, I like to take chips off the table. What I constantly need to remind myself of is that algos are often wired in the opposite direction. They press winners. They tend to follow momentum. They tend to be quick to stop themselves out. I believe algos/quantitative trading models have been exiting stocks. Are they out? Possibly, we have seen higher volumes on this down move. Have they turned from buyers to sellers and are happy to establish shorts and push those? That I don’t know, but my fear of “systematic” trading systems (often described simply as CTAs, but a universe much bigger than that) makes me want to stay bearish.

In the end, I’ve started to reduce shorts, but remain bearish, and think that the correct strategy is to sell bounces and keep reloading shorts, until something occurs that forces me to change my views.

Bond Yields

In the end, on equities, it turned out to be “more of the same” (maybe slightly less pounding on the table), but bonds are far more interesting in terms of “staying” or “going” from a bearish perspective.

We’ve been bearish on yields for most of this year and it has largely worked. Not a one-way street by any stretch of the imagination, but not bad. In fact, we’ve raised our range on the 10-year yield, from 4.2%-4.4% to 4.3%-4.5% and then from 4.4%-4.6%. I don’t think we’ve officially changed the band, but it is implicit that if 10-years are at 4.62% and I’m still bearish (though far less so than at 3.9% where we started the year), the band must be higher. Do we raise the range again? That is always a dangerous game, as many equity analysts, who felt compelled to raise price targets in the past few months, can tell you. Were we too low originally? Have things changed that significantly? Take the win? I’m not sure if repeatedly raising your bands is something that should be considered in current analysis, but it makes sense (at least for me).

Aside from many specific reasons to be bearish, we had the catch-all of “nothing that was in place to push 10s to 5% last fall has been resolved.” That is still true.

What is the bull case for bonds?

  • Inflation. While I was never part of the “Super Users” group, I think I can relate to my understanding of the “gist” of the story – wanting more data to better understand what the heck the BLS actually comes up with for inflation. Let’s for the moment assume that inflation has “become sticky” around 2.5% (to pick a number). Then lets think about all the issues with measuring inflation. Hedonic quality adjustments. Substitution. Difficulty measuring. Flawed measurements (housing and rent, while ignoring the always “curious” use of Owners Equivalent Rent, have a lag effect built in, for gosh knows what “useful” reason). Last month, in at least one of the reports, it all came down to auto insurance. So, let’s assume that any given month is within 0.2% of being an accurate representation for that month (somehow, I feel I’m generous). Then it is at 2.4% annualized. So if we are centered around 2.5% (or 0.2% per month), then we could easily see a month with no inflation that annualizes to “problem solved.” While I believe on-shoring, near-shoring, geopolitical inflation, and the realization that we need to build out traditional and new energy sources, etc., will be inflationary, I would have to bet on seeing what would now be considered a surprise (a month where inflation data looks really good), especially given the current levels of expectations. One big fear I have about remaining bearish, is that not only would I not be surprised to see some good inflation data before the June meeting, but also I would be shocked if we didn’t. More about measurement and reporting than any real change in the underlying inflation rate.

  • Carry. Yes, the path to hell is paved with carry (or interest), but it is real. The back-up in yields provides more protection. While I’m constantly aware that selling can beget more selling (see my equity concerns), the case for “buying the dip” in bonds is stronger. More yield. Interest coming in every month that can be re-invested. Less inversion, making the decision between 2s and 10s more complicated even for “yield hogs” who focus more on yield than duration.

  • “No Bounce” and “American Exceptionalism” have become so consensus that it wouldn’t take much to tip the apple cart and put some level of fear about the state of the economy back on the table. I think earnings, and more importantly outlooks, may paint that picture for us.

I am worried about “faux” liquidity, even in the Treasury market. Electronic trading and a multitude of platforms tend to make liquidity appear more abundant than it really is. There aren’t 50 people sitting on the bid. There are 10, they just happen to all put them on 5 platforms, assuming they can yank the bid in time. There are really only 5 buyers, the other 5 just “see” them buying, so are along for the ride hoping to scalp some money and thinking they can pull their bids if necessary. That is why we get “air pockets” in pricing and will continue to do so. Positioning is better than it was (not everyone is long), but this “gap” risk is real – in both directions.

I like the 2-year at 5% and am “tolerant” of 10s at 4.6%.

Credit

Credit spreads for me are now largely just a proxy for equites. Yes CDX, credit spreads, and even high yield held their own on Friday amidst the debacle of an equity market, but that will be difficult to sustain.

I see no fundamental problems in credit, but it is difficult to remain bearish on equities and like credit. Also, the aforementioned “faux” liquidity is even more obvious in credit markets and creates far more gap risk. While that gap risk is usually somewhat symmetric, I think the gap risk to much wider is higher than the risk to a gap tighter. Still like 65-70 as range on CDX.

Geopolitical Base Case

Academy Securities has sent a lot out on the current situation in the Middle East. We’ve done what we can with our team of retired Generals and Admirals. Not just via written word (please see the “new” Daily Brief that we’ve been sending on Bloomberg), but also through more video calls than I can keep track of.

Even with their expertise, there is a range of “error” or “doubt” centered around “what has happened” let alone “what might happen.”

There have been some fast and furious discussions about deterrence and General (ret.) Ashley highlighted this Rand publication – Understanding Deterrence from 2018. Academy’s game theory centric piece – Geopolitical Chicken – is worth reading if you haven’t already.

Anyways, my base case is:

  • Iran’s attack on Israel was not just symbolic. They planned to cause damage and are really concerned that they didn’t. I’m agreeing with the argument that you send “a handful” of drones/missiles (all of the lowest quality) if you want to ensure that they don’t get through. Sending 100s with a range of capabilities, was an actual attack that failed. Others make the case that it was symbolic and designed to be destroyed en route. I find that argument less plausible, hence, not my base case.

  • Therefore, much like Russia, they have to recalculate their war effort. If the attack was somewhere between Fail and Epic Fail, you need to rethink your strategy. It is far too early for them to have understood what went wrong, let alone how to “correct” it, so of course they will downplay the Israeli attack on Iranian soil. You cannot afford to have a second failed attack. You might convince the world that you launched a “second symbolic” attack, but that’s a stretch of the imagination.

Therefore, my base case is that Iran is trying to figure out how to attack again, which may take some time, and a lot could change between now and then, but the current “quiet” is more about a failed attack than any meaningful de-escalation.

That may or may not be your base case, and even by working so closely with our Geopolitical Intelligence Group, you can find support for a range of “base cases,” but this is my working assumption. This means that I think possible shocks are still on the table. From Hedging Geopolitical Risk I think any shock will be bad for equities, temporarily good for bonds (but fade that quickly), and good for oil.

Bottom Line

There is very little I can find in equities. I’m not even “loving” long China (for a trade) versus short Nasdaq 100 (though I’d be remiss to point out for the past 3 months, FXI is up 10.8% while QQQ is down 1.4%). Remember, I think that as time goes by, more people will question whether slower sales into China are a function of problems with the Chinese economy or part of a broader strategy to suppress sales of Western brands in favor of domestic brands The Threat of Made by China 2025.

  • I still own energy and commodities but biased towards owning the equities (not the underlying commodities). It is interesting that the equities (looking at XLE) did so well on Friday. Maybe reduce some positions here, but this is my favorite sector. Iran seems unlikely to respond soon, given my base case, and my bet is that we see some signals of a slowing economy emerge from earnings calls.
  • Neutral to mildly bullish Treasuries. There, I’ve done it. I’ve flipped. For now, buy some Treasuries. Stick to a 4.45% to 4.6% band on 10s. This is for a “trade” rather than a fundamental shift. If there is any market where deep out of the money options make sense, it could be here, as faux liquidity makes me fear a “flash crash” type of scenario. If this “bull case” sounds tepid, it is because it is tepid, but I’ve flip-flopped here to the bull side (again, for a trade, tepidly, and acknowledging the risk of a gap to much higher yields).
  • Credit. Moderately bearish, based primarily on having a bearish outlook on equities. I don’t see fundamental issues, but that doesn’t matter for the next 10 bps on IG credit. Rising Treasury yields have helped credit spreads (got the higher yield on IG and even High Yield without having to demand wider spreads). If I’m correct and Treasuries bounce, then spreads are likely to feel a little bit of pain as you see a “flight to quality” (as opposed to a “flight to safety”).

Hopefully, by the time you read this report it is still relevant in a world where countries don’t adhere to a policy of attacking only during U.S. trading hours!

Good luck navigating this and please feel free to use Academy’s resources, as we as a firm are at your disposal!

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/21/2024 - 13:25

"You Are Quite Openly Jewish": London Police Under Fire For Confrontation With Man Near Anti-Israeli March

"You Are Quite Openly Jewish": London Police Under Fire For Confrontation With Man Near Anti-Israeli March

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The London police are under fire this week for threatening to arrest a man wearing a kippah near a pro-Palestinian march.

Officers inform Gideon Falter, head of the Campaign Against Antisemitism watchdog, that he was “antagonizing” the protesters by being “openly Jewish” near such a march. He was told that, if he tried to cross the street while being “openly Jewish,” he would be arrested for breach of the peace.

In the video, one police officer said: “You are quite openly Jewish, this is a pro-Palestinian march, I’m not accusing you of anything but I’m worried about the reaction to your presence.”

Another officer then added later: “You will be escorted out of this area so you can go about your business, go where you want freely or, if you choose to remain here, because you are causing a breach of peace with all these other people, you will be arrested.”

Falter was also told that being openly Jewish near such a march was “antagonizing”.

Activists have long protested the dangers of “driving while black” in prompting stops by police and threats of arrest. Falter appears to have established a danger of “walking while Jewish” in London.

The Metropolitan Police later apologized, but had to issue a second apology after saying in a now deleted statement that

“In recent weeks we’ve seen a new trend emerge, with those opposed to the main protests appearing along the route to express their views. The fact that those who do this often film themselves while doing so suggests they must know that their presence is provocative, that they’re inviting a response and that they’re increasing the likelihood of an altercation.”

Calling an openly Jewish man “provocative” only reaffirmed the original statements made by the officers.

As a result, the police had to issue a new statement, which said that the previous one had “been removed. We apologize for the offense it caused.”

What is equally disturbing is the threat to arrest a man who was doing nothing wrong based on his identity.

These threats were being made as protesters were hurling abuses at him because he is Jewish.

Notably, the United Kingdom has embraced a wide array of criminalized speech, arresting people for hateful or denigrating comments made against groups or individuals.

A man was convicted for sending a tweet while drunk referring to dead soldiers. Another was arrested for an anti-police t-shirt. Another was arrested for calling the Irish boyfriend of his ex-girlfriend a “leprechaun.” Yet another was arrested for singing “Kung Fu Fighting.” A teenager was arrested for protesting outside of a Scientology center with a sign calling the religion a “cult.”

We also discussed the arrest of a woman who was praying to herself near an abortion clinic. English courts have seen criminalized “toxic ideologies” as part of this crackdown on free speech.

I have opposed those laws.

Yet, this incident illustrates the arbitrary enforcement of such laws. The police simply ignored the anti-Semitic comments being leveled at Falter and confronted him on being openly Jewish. 

That is not to say that I favor the enforcement of criminal speech laws. Rather, it shows the added danger of such laws in their selective enforcement.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/21/2024 - 12:50

Is There A Road-Map For What's Ahead?

Is There A Road-Map For What's Ahead?

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via Substack,

One of our primary survival traits is the ability to anticipate the future to avoid threats and reap higher yields. We seek a vantage point to view the road ahead, or even better a road map to what's ahead.

Is there a road map to what's ahead?  An enormous amount of research and projections are issued daily, proposing answers to the question: what happens next?

In my view, a good starting point is to recall that there are critical differences between open systems and closed systems. A clock is a closed system, and so its functions are predictable.  An ecosystem is an open system, and so predictions are contingent on an unknowably large number of potential changes in inputs, processes and feedback: new invasive species may arrive and displace native species, predators might be decimated by a new disease, etc.

But even open systems operate according to principles we can discern, and so they are not entirely unpredictable or chaotic. For example, when a keystone species is wiped out, the entire ecosystem collapses.

The immense powers of modern technology, engineering, cheap energy and mass media have created an illusory aura of human agency, that we can control our future in the same way we control machinery. This aura has also created a sense that human leaders or elites control our world with god-like powers of precision. This too is an illusion, as the contingencies, forces, feedbacks and second-order effects of open systems are beyond the control of any human leadership.

Consider the collapse of marriage and birthrates globally; leaders recognize the threat this poses and have tried to reverse the tide, with little effect.  Some propose that these dynamics are the result of secret agendas to reduce the human populace, but the causal links required by this theory are not persuasive: people don't abandon marriage and raising a family lightly, and there are many factors at work: mating, marriage and having children is an open system, and demographics can't be dialed up or down at will.

So what road maps do we have for inherently unpredictable and not entirely controllable open systems?

One is the cycles of human history, which reflect that our Wetware 1.0 instantiated around 200,000 years ago leads us to respond in a very limited number of ways to threats and windfalls. I've often recommended the book Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century as evidence that the present has many similarities to the 1600s, which was beset by climate change, scarcities, wars and political conflicts.

Another is how leaders and populaces respond economically to scarcities and threats.

Yet another is human psychology, which maps how we respond to scarcities and threats via denial, magical thinking, cognitive biases, etc.

A fourth map is based on cultural and sociological dynamics embedded in communities, tribes and nation-states.

Let's take a brief look at each of the three, all of which are worthy of entire volumes.

My colleague Gordon Long published this road map of how economic-financial leaders respond to the stagnation of growth: Gordon calls the entwined trajectories Monetary Malpractice and Moral Malady: financial deceptions (low inflation, etc.) lead to distortions which then generate delusions: our economy can grow forever, as there are no limits on our powers.

This path is paralleled by a decline in ethics, as the deceptions and distortions require misinformation as a means to manipulation (securities no longer marked to market, etc.) which leads to malfeasance, mispricing (of risk) and malinvestment.

These two dynamics generate moral hazard (the disconnection of risk and consequence), unintended consequences (system fragility) and dysfunctional markets (bubble economies, etc.) The end state is instability, failure and collapse, as the ethical and factual foundations of economic decision-making have been gutted to protect the status quo.

The irony is striking: to save us from any sacrifice, we undermine the system so it veers into instability and collapse, generating extremes of sacrifice.

A similar destination appears in this chart of the psychology of collapse: we avoid the pain of sacrifice and convince ourselves that something or other will magically create a secure future without us having to take responsibility or make sacrifices. In the current era, this something is technology: AI will do all the work, etc.

As pressures mount, we focus on short-term needs, because we must do so and also because the shorter term is all we can control. We assure ourselves and others that we can collectively resolve all threats as we've done so in the recent past (i.e. recency bias): we've got top people working on it, top people.

Since we haven't changed either inputs or processes, the system careens into collapse.

A 2021 article in Foreign Affairs magazine outlined the sociological factors that guide our collective responses to large-scale threats, crises and challenges: The Threat Reflex: Why Some Societies Respond to Danger Better Than Others (Michele Gelfand)

"The Greek historian Herodotus, in his travels across the world in the fifth century BC, was the first to observe the opposing tendencies of societies toward either order or permissiveness. He singled out the Persian Empire for its openness to foreign ideas and practices: “There is no nation which so readily adopts foreign customs as the Persians. Thus, they have taken the dress of the Medes, considering it superior to their own; and in war they wear the Egyptian breastplate.”

By contrast, he described the Egyptians as having very strong norms, especially about cleanliness, religion, and respect for authority. Two centuries later, the Greek historian Polybius contrasted Roman discipline, order, and rationality with Celtic impetuosity, chaos, and passion on the battlefield. These ancient writers had stumbled on one of the most important ways in which human groups varied—by the strength of their social norms.

It wasn’t until the late 1960s that social science took account of these essential differences. The American anthropologist Pertti Pelto introduced the terms 'tight' and 'loose' in his work on underlying cultural codes.

A country that closely observes and upholds social norms can be considered to be 'tight.' People in those societies don’t tolerate deviance and generally follow the rules. 'Loose' countries celebrate individual creativity and freedom. They are lax in maintaining rules and customs but very tolerant of new ideas and ways of being.

Tightness and looseness confer advantages and disadvantages to societies. Tight cultures exemplify order and discipline. Societies with tight cultures tend to consist of individuals who are more attentive to rules, have greater impulse control, and are more concerned about making mistakes. They have higher uniformity--even to the point where their clocks are more synchronized on city streets.

Loose cultures have less order: people have lower impulse control and suffer from greater levels of debt, obesity, alcoholism, and drug abuse. But countries with loose cultures also boast much higher levels of openness: they are more tolerant of people of different races, religions, and sexual orientations; are more entrepreneurial; and have much higher levels of creativity.

But what explains these variations in social norms? Tight cultures and loose ones don’t share any obvious characteristics, such as geography, language, religion, or traditions. GDP isn’t a factor, either: rich and poor countries abound in both categories. Japan, a rich country, and Pakistan, a poor one, have tight cultures; the rich United States has a loose one, as does the far poorer Brazil. Instead, the extent to which societies have been exposed to collective threats in part determines their relative tightness or looseness.

Tight cultures have grappled with more frequent natural disasters, a greater prevalence of disease, greater resource scarcity, higher population density, and territorial invasions. Groups exposed to frequent dangers need stricter rules to coordinate to survive. Groups that have experienced fewer threats can afford to be permissive.

Tightening during times of threat is an important adaptation that helps groups coordinate and survive. Populist authoritarian leaders hijack, amplify, and manipulate threat signals and then promise to return their countries to a tight order.  Understanding tight-loose dynamics can help countries better anticipate and manage these challenges.

The sudden displacement of long-standing regimes can unleash extreme disorder that allows populist autocrats to step into the breach and promise to replace chaos with tightness. History repeatedly shows that chaos pushes people toward a yearning for tightness. This psychology leaves populations in places where norms have collapsed vulnerable to extremists.

What I call 'tight-loose ambidexterity': the ability to tighten when there is an objective threat and loosen when that threat recedes."

As we've seen, democracies can respond in a highly authoritarian fashion to threats, "tightening" legal, social, financial and political controls. Though the article doesn't mention this, I discern a feedback loop in this tightening: as events seem to escape this tightening of centralized control, the leadership instinctively increases the tightening, seeking to impose even greater control of the populace and economy.

This tightening eventually crosses thresholds and generates second-order effects: people sense the restrictions are not helping resolve whatever threats exist, they're adding a new threat to civil liberties, social mobility / agency and economic freedoms, all of which are the foundational dynamics of an open, adaptable society.

Globally, nation-states appear to be exhibiting elements of all four road maps. Few seem to be exhibiting 'tight-loose ambidexterity' or a willingness to impose necessary sacrifices first on those most able to make sacrifices, i.e. their elites.  This does not bode well in terms of changing inputs and processes consequentially enough to change the trajectory toward instability. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/21/2024 - 11:40

US To Sanction Entire IDF Battalion Over Alleged Human Rights Abuses

US To Sanction Entire IDF Battalion Over Alleged Human Rights Abuses

Axios is reporting what marks an unexpected and unprecedented development in US-Israel relations: the Biden administration will in the coming days announce sanctions against an entire battalion of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

Three US officials told the outlet that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will unveil the punitive measures against the IDF’s "Netzah Yehuda" battalion for its allegedly committing human rights abuses against Palestinians in the West Bank. It is an ultra orthodox brigade founded in 1999 in coordination with rabbis who sought to allow easier entry into the military of a religious community which typically rejects national service.

Soldiers of the Neztah Yehuda Battalion in training. Source: Flash90

The controversial battalion has also served in Gaza Strip operations, as well as in the north of Israel. The Times of Israel has highlighted, "The battalion has been at the center of several controversies in the past connected to right-wing extremism and violence against Palestinians, notably including the 2022 death of Omar As’ad, a 78-year-old Palestinian-American who died after being detained, handcuffed, blindfolded, and later abandoned in near-freezing conditions by soldiers of the battalion."

Blinken on Friday appeared to confirm that the sanctions are imminent. "You can expect to see them in the days ahead," Blinken said in response to a question about potential Leahy law violations. The 1997 law bans the possibility of US foreign aid or DOD training programs going to foreign entities found to have committed human rights abuses.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu immediately blasted the coming US move in a Saturday message on X, writing:

"The IDF must not be sanctioned!" he wrote on X. "I’ve been working in recent weeks against the sanctioning of Israeli citizens, including in my conversations with the American administration."

"At a time when our soldiers are fighting terrorist monsters, the intention to issue sanctions against a unit in the IDF is the height of absurdity and a moral low," he added, committing to fight the move."

President Biden is under immense and growing pressure going into November, as many Democrats are increasingly outraged at the soaring civilian death toll and near daily headlines of atrocities among families in Gaza. Yet all along he's resisted so much as attaching conditions to defense aid, and is reportedly even considering another $1BN+ weapons package for Tel Aviv.

According to Axios, "The sanctions will ban the battalion and its members from receiving any kind of U.S. military assistance or training, the sources said."

Other controversial police or military units which have long been accused of human rights violations are said by the US administration to have lately changed their behavior, and so none others will target of the new sanctions, Axios notes. According to more background on the Netzah Yehuda battalion

Over the years, the unit stationed in the West Bank became a destination for many "Hilltop Youth" — young radical right wing settlers who weren't accepted into any other combat unit in the IDF.

On Friday the US slapped a new round of sanctions on Israel's radical settler movement, this time targeting a pair of entities accused of fundraising for already sanctioned individuals.

"The Biden administration on Friday imposed sanctions on two entities accused of fundraising for extremist Israel settlers already sanctioned, as well as the founder of an organization whose members regularly assault Palestinians," Associated Press reported Friday.

Violence in the West Bank is at a high point as Israeli forces have been conducting large-scale raids, also in the wake of the murder of 14-year-old Israeli Binyamin Achimair. This weekend, 14 Palestinians have been reported killed after an Israeli security raid on Nur Shams refugee camp in the West Bank.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/21/2024 - 11:05

How Climate Change Narrative Is Preventing Africa From Modernizing And Gaining Prosperity

How Climate Change Narrative Is Preventing Africa From Modernizing And Gaining Prosperity

Authored by Katie Spence via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Under a blazing Kenyan sun, elderly women toil on their hands and knees in the reddish-brown clay, separating the choking weeds from the small, green shoots of a finger millet crop. The women are barehanded and barefoot, and they work from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. or 6 p.m. at night. Clearing a small field takes three days.

A combine harvester could replace 1,000 people,” Jusper Machogu, an agricultural engineer and farmer in Kenya, told The Epoch Times. “It makes me sad whenever I see my mom wading through millet. We have women kneeling down and uprooting weeds throughout the farm all day, and it’s sunny. Those machines would change our lives.”

(Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images, Shutterstock)

But farmers like Mr. Machogu can’t get a combine harvester. Even if they could afford one from the meager salaries they make selling crops, Western nations’ climate policies prevent Africans from achieving what the West already has—modernization and prosperity.

In November 2023, to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use, the President of the Republic of Kenya, William Ruto, cut subsidies for fertilizer, fuel, and electricity for the 2023/2024 financial year. He did so at the behest of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a financial agency of the United Nations (U.N.).

I come from a community where people use cow dung to fertilize their farms,” Mr. Machogu said. “And the reason for that is because last year, the government of Kenya decided that they were going to listen to what the IMF was telling them. It was telling them to end fertilizer subsidies.

“You can imagine how that’s going to impact farmers. The fertilizer prices went up by almost two times. We have very poor people around here. So, if I was [purchasing] 20 kilos for my farm, I’m forced to get 10 kilos now.

“Most people have gone back to using cow dung, which is not a good nitrogenous fertilizer for their crop. You can’t compare urea, with a 46 percent nitrogenous content, to cow dung, with only four percent. It doesn’t make sense.”

Mr. Machogu said the IMF and the Western nations that embrace climate policies for Africa are engaging in neocolonialism, or “climate colonialism.”

And it’s no different than past colonialism, the likes of which liberal elites, such as former President Barack Obama, have condemned.

“Colonialism skewed Africa’s economy and robbed people of their capacity to shape their own destiny,” President Obama said while in Ethiopia in 2015. “Eventually, liberation movements grew. And 50 years ago, in a great burst of self-determination, Africans rejoiced as foreign flags came down and your national flags went up.”

Two years earlier, in 2013, while in South Africa, President Obama warned a group of young African leaders about the consequences of Africa achieving Western parity.

A Samburu woman works to remove an invasive plant in Naibunga Upper Conservancy, Laikipia County, Kenya, on May 12, 2022. (Luis Tato/AFP via Getty Images)

“If everybody’s raising living standards to the point where everybody’s got a car, and everybody’s got air conditioning, everybody’s got a big house, well, the planet will boil over,” he said, “unless we find new ways of producing energy.”

The new climate colonialism is being driven by global entities such as the U.N., which says Africa should have energy, but due to climate change concerns, it should focus on wind and solar.

Calvin Beisner, founder and president of the Christian-based Cornwall Alliance, said currently “the most harmful policy” is that the IMF, World Bank, and agencies such as the U.S. Agency for International Development “refuse to do loans or other funding for coal, natural gas, or oil-based electric generating stations in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia and Latin America.”

It’s particularly damaging in Africa, he said.

Vijay Jayaraj, a research associate for the CO2 Coalition, said he grew up in India and witnessed the growth of India’s industrialization—courtesy of fossil fuels.

“In terms of economic development, energy is the foundational keystone,” he said.

“If you’re going to disrupt how people get energy—where and what quality of energy they receive—it will have an impact. Not just generally, in terms of the economy and the GDP, but also the household and individual level,” Mr. Jayaraj told The Epoch Times.

Climate Colonialism

Mr. Machogu criticized the U.N.’s 2023 Sustainable Development Goals for Africa, which he said were developed after U.N. employees went to Africa to study the issues facing the continent. From that expedition, U.N. employees came up with 17 “solutions.”

They said that one of the problems is climate change,” Mr. Machogu said. “It doesn’t make sense to me because I come from Africa. We have far bigger problems—people sleeping hungry, very poor people around me. I’m more worried about that than I'll ever be worried about climate change.

“Every solution to [Africa’s] problems is centered around climate change. [The UN says to Africa] ‘If you’re going to end poverty, let’s end it in a way that we don’t impact our climate. If you’re going to have clean water, let’s do it in a way that will not be too bad for the climate.”

He said modern civilization has “four pillars of civilization”—steel, cement, plastic, and fertilizer.

“Without fossil fuels, we can’t produce these four pillars of civilization. Without fossil fuels, we don’t have energy. We must have fossil fuels. It’s how the West beat poverty.”

The U.N. Environment Programme’s (UNEP) current official position regarding Africa is to help it achieve modernization but to do so under strict environmental guidelines.

Notably, that includes increasing access to and reliance on wind and solar energy, encouraging countries within the continent to come together and talk about what’s worked and what hasn’t, “prioritizing emissions reductions from land degradation,” and developing a comprehensive framework for “Low Emissions Development.”

Camels weak from a lack of sustenance stand behind a salt water well as they migrate to find food near Mochesa in Nairobi, Kenya, on Dec. 9, 2021

Mr. Machogu said that, in layman’s terms, the U.N.’s policy boils down to “no fossil fuels for Africa,” which necessarily means no economic progress. Conversely, unrestricted access to fossil fuels could help pull Africa out of poverty.

“Let me speak for Africa because 60 percent of Africans rely on agriculture for their livelihood,” Mr. Machogu said. “We need fossil fuels for farm machinery. Despite the fact that the UN, the IMF, the World Bank, and all of these environmental organizations say solar and wind for Africa, we can’t electrify agriculture—if we did electrify, it would be a tiny percent.

Right now, our access to farm machinery is very low. I think about four or five percent [of Africans have access], which is very low compared to places like China’s 75 percent, India’s 45 percent, and the U.S.’s 95 percent. Almost everything in U.S. agriculture is done by machines. So having access to farm machinery really would change our lives because it would amplify and expand our capabilities.”

In addition to needing fossil fuels for machines and access to loans to purchase them, Mr. Machogu said expanded irrigation, courtesy of fossil fuels, would benefit Africa.

Africa is not all green,” he said. “We have other places that are very dry. So, one of the easiest ways we can end that is by irrigating our land, and we will irrigate our lands using pipes from fossil fuels."

Holding up a yellow plastic bucket and panning to his surrounding crops, Mr. Machogu said most Africans get water for crops by lugging it from wells. The further your crop is from the well, the more backbreaking and time-consuming the labor.

Finally, Mr. Machogu explained that urea use, a fertilizer made from ammonia and liquid carbon dioxide, is significantly lower in Africa, thanks, in part, to external pressure from entities like the IMF.

“Personally, we use the 40 kilos of nitrogenous fertilizer for one hectare of our land,” he said about his farm. “We have other people using 20 kilos. In other places, like Ethiopia, people use 16 kilos per hectare.

“Go to a place like the U.S., the West—which says Africa should not have access to fossil fuels—and it’s using 120 kilos [of nitrogenous fertilizer] per hectare. Europe uses 160–170 kilos per hectare, India uses 250 kilos per hectare, and China uses 360 kilos per hectare.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/21/2024 - 08:10

Biden To Withdraw Troops From Niger As Region Increasingly Turns To Russia

Biden To Withdraw Troops From Niger As Region Increasingly Turns To Russia

In what is simultaneously a humiliating setback for the Deep State and a welcome victory for noninterventionist American taxpayers, the White House on Friday announced that US military forces will be withdrawn from Niger over the coming months. The move comes after Niger's mid-March declaration that was ending its military cooperation with the United States.  

Following Niger's announcement, US military officials scrambled in vain to salvage the relationship. At stake: The $110 million Air Base 201, which the New York Times characterized as the Pentagon's "most strategic military asset in sub-Saharan Africa." Said to be a key base for counterterrorism, it was a major hub for drone operations in the region. 

Via Encyclopedia Britannica 

US-Niger relations took a major downturn with a July 2023 coup that toppled President Mohamed Bazoum in favor of a military junta. The new government was increasingly keen on Russia, something that triggered bitter complaints from US officials. Things deteriorated further when Western intelligence accused Niger of engaging in secret talks to give Iran access to its uranium.

In a March statement, junta spokesman Col. Maj. Amadou Abdramane said, "Niger regrets the intention of the American delegation to deny the sovereign Nigerien people the right to choose their partners and types of partnerships capable of truly helping them fight against terrorism."

The Russians may well take the keys to Air Base 201. Bringing an air-defense system with them, more than 100 Russian instructors arrived in the country last week. 

According to Russia’s state-owned news outlet Ria Novosti, the Russian personnel are part of Africa Corps, the new paramilitary structure intended to take the place of the Wagner group, the military company whose mercenaries and operations spread in Africa under the leadership of Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, who was killed in a plane crash last year. -New York Times

At public demonstrations, Nigeriens have been seen waving Russian flags and shouting slogans denouncing US imperialism. Russian flags have even become a trendy item to display in everyday life, emblematic of a major geopolitical transition. “The Russian flag has become a symbol of resistance in West Africa, affiliated with anti-West and anti-French attitudes,” Kyle Walter, research head at Logically, told the New York Times. 

Backers of Niger's ruling junta march alongside a car adorned with the Russian flag (Issifou Djibo/EPA via Shutterstock and New York Times)

Indeed, Niger isn't the only country in the Sahel region that's warming up to Russia. Burkina Faso and Mali have also sought President Putin's help in battling ISIS and Al Qaeda insurgents. As Andrew Korybko explained at Substackthe Pentagon is likely to pivot to Ivory Coast -- aka Cote D'Ivoire -- where its drones will be welcome at French bases. "A complementary presence in Senegal can’t be ruled out either but nothing will be decided until after its delayed presidential elections are held later this month," he added. 

There are approximately 1,100 US service members in Niger. In 2017, members of Congress were surprised to learn that soldiers and airmen had been deployed there. They found out in the worst possible way: After four US Army Special Forces soldiers were killed there after being ambushed by ISIS militants. 

The four soldiers killed in Niger in 2017: From left, SSGT Bryan Black, SGT La David Johnson, SSGT Dustin Wright, SSGT Jeremiah Johnson

Even uberhawk and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham had no idea. "I didn’t know there was 1,000 troops in Niger,” he said on Meet the Press. “They are going to brief us next week as to why they were there and what they were doing.”

Last October, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul introduced a bill that would force Biden to withdraw American forces from the country. “If we’re going to send someone’s son or daughter to a foreign country, if they are going to risk their life, Congress should vote on them being there,” Paul told Defense News. “They’re ruled by a military junta led by a guy that we trained in democracy training over here.” His bill was defeated by an 86-11 margin. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/21/2024 - 07:35

UK Physiotherapist Leaders Announce Goal To "Eradicate" Critics Of Gender Ideology From The Profession

UK Physiotherapist Leaders Announce Goal To "Eradicate" Critics Of Gender Ideology From The Profession

Authored by Bryndis Blackadder via Reduxx,

The Chartered Society of Physiotherapy (CSP), which is the “professional body” and trade union which represents member physiotherapists in the UK, has launched its first “definitive position statement on transphobia” with the publication of its “position statement on transphobia.” The publication has sent a chill through the profession, as anonymous whistleblowers express concerns about censorship.

The “transphobia” statement describes the aim of “eradicating [transphobia] from our profession” by instructing members that they “must raise concerns about colleagues” if they think that the colleague’s “personal values, biases and beliefs” have led them to “discriminate” against others, with discrimination including “denying” someone’s “gender identity or refusing to accept it.”

The publication was accompanied by an announcement by the CSP declaring that the “Transphobia statement is a milestone for the profession.”

In unpublished internal memos provided to Reduxx by an anonymous member, the CSP vows to prevent its “channels being used to spread transphobia” and urges members to report colleagues and comments to the Corporate Comms Team. 

The published definitions were created following a consultation process announced by the “LGBTQIA+ voice and network of the Chartered Society of Physiotherapy, Definitions of Transphobia Working Group,” with a “Statement of Intent” in January of 2023.

After a year of deliberations, the CSP announced on X that it had adopted its first “definitive position statement on transphobia.”

Stephanie Land, chair of the CSP LGBTQIA+ network, thanked staff and members for their “efforts and emotional labour” invested in creating the “pivotal piece of work.”

The position statement attempts to define “transphobia” for the “safety of transgender members and transgender patients” and describes it as “complex” and stating: “There is no definitive list of transphobic behaviours, but it includes, for example, the questioning of a transgender person’s gender identity.”

Citing a definition by “TransActual” the statement goes on to say:

“The consequence of transphobia is that trans people struggle to live openly and comfortably in society. An ultimate outcome may be the erasure of trans people as a viable class of people. Transphobia includes, but is not limited to:

Attempting to remove trans people’s rights.

Misrepresenting trans people.

Abuse.

Systematically excluding trans people from discussions about issues that directly affect them.

Other forms of discrimination.

(Source: TransActual)”

Sarine Baz, chair of the CSP Equity, Diversity and Belonging committee, stated in the announcement that “transphobia,” as defined by the CSP, is “never acceptable” and that “’expressing negative attitudes or feelings towards transgender individuals, or other transphobic actions, can’t be tolerated.”  

The position statement lists CSP commitments with No.6 in the list describing the commitment for members to “show allyship by challenging transphobia outside the profession.” It also instructs member physiotherapists to take political stances, “including opposing so called “conversion therapy,” which has been under consultation in the UK for proposed new laws to enforce bans on “conversion therapy”  which, according to the BBC, “include practices aimed at transgender people.”

The CSP statement goes on to say that: “But in doing so we note the advice of the Equity, Diversity and Belonging Committee not to hold or take positions on the following issues: trans athletes, single sex services outside healthcare or gender recognition legislation.”

The Equity, Diversity and Belonging committee has members who specialize in sports and sex-specific sporting injuries and members who focus on the specific experiences of black and ethnic minority people.

The Position Statement also declares that it will censor comments from members and the public on forums where members discuss issues, stating “We will not allow transphobic comments to be published on the CSP website, on iCSP, in our e-bulletins or in Frontline.” 

While aiming to encourage “the development of safe spaces for education around transgender issues. Discussing discrimination can be challenging and people should feel safe to discuss how we address all forms of oppression … centred on the experience of those who are oppressed.”

The Position Statement includes reference to the new Health and Care Professions Council (HCPC) standards of conduct which come into force in September 2024. The HCPC regulates registered physiotherapists who are members of the CSP. The provisions quoted include that members must “take action to ensure that your personal values, biases and beliefs do not lead you to discriminate against service users, carers or colleagues.” 

Reduxx has obtained unpublished internal CSP documents circulated to members, warning that “[the CSP] are seeking to prevent negative and transphobic voices pre-empting this statement” and that they alerted LGBTQIA+ Network members “via WhatsApp” so that members can “emotionally prepare” for the launch.

The briefing paper states that the CSP is “taking a position on trans rights” because it stands for “human rights and against all forms of discrimination and hatred” and states that “transphobia in the workplace and within healthcare is damaging and destructive for transgender and non-binary people… it is a barrier to the culture of safety needed to progress physiotherapy into an equitable, diverse and inclusive way.”

The paper also notes that there is “no legal or consensus definition of transphobia,” leading the CSP to have to develop one on their own.

Describing what action the CSP will take against the undefined transphobia, it states it will “challenge transphobia outside the profession” and the Equity, Diversity and Belonging Committee “will actively monitor progress.”

In a question on whether “transphobic members” would be penalized, the CSP says it is not the arbiter of professional complaints, and that the HCPC will instead decide on complaints. However, the updated CSP voluntary code will “inform that work” of the HCPC in making their judgement on complaints.

Members are told that the CSP commits to “preventing our channels being used to spread transphobia. We do not monitor posts in real time but will remove or edit comments which do not conform to the position statement as soon as we can. If you have concerns about anything you see on our channels please let the Corporate Comms Team (if you are staff) or [EMAIL] (if you are a member) as soon as possible.”

Members were instructed that following the statement “on 11 April supportive commentary on the statement, wider commentary showing allyship on trans issues, will be acceptable.”

When hypothetically asked how the CSP members should manage social media commentary they are advised that “there is a risk that people outside the profession may choose to get involved online… this may include very challenging behaviour which could be distressing.” They are told “do not get into protracted exchanges with those who don’t agree with us. Instead put our positive messages, without reference to the negatives, in order to counter them.”

After that, they are told to report hateful comments to the website administrators, social media companies and the police. 

CSP’s position statement garnered much attention on social media from those concerned with gender ideology’s impact on women’s rights. Notably, Maya Forstater, who won an Employment Appeal Tribunal that found that her “gender critical beliefs” were protected under UK equality law, highlighted her concerns with the new CSP Policy.

“Have you consulted a lawyer before producing this? Ask them about Meade v WCC & Social Work England,” Forstater asked, pointing to a recent case judgment in 2024 which found that a social worker named Rachel Meade was unlawfully harassed and discriminated against in the workplace by her employer on the basis of her “gender critical beliefs.”

The CSP statement on transphobia was published one day after the much-anticipated Cass Review which “demolished” the NHS’s “entire gender treatment model” and highlighted ideological guidelines on the discussion of “transgender” issues having detrimentally impacted health care professional’s behaviors and practices.

Reduxx is your source of pro-woman, pro-child safeguarding news and commentary. We’re 100% independent! Support our mission by joining our Patreon, or consider making a one-time donation.

Bryndís Blackadder is a contributing journalist at Reduxx with a focus on free speech and the law. She lives in Scotland, where she enjoys creating documentaries, multimedia art, and advocating for human rights.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/21/2024 - 07:00

Israel Fostered The Rise Of Hamas To Preclude A Two-State Solution

Israel Fostered The Rise Of Hamas To Preclude A Two-State Solution

In Wednesday's ZeroHedge debate on Israel, Iran and Palestine, Dave Smith emphasized a little-known fact about the Gaza conflict -- that Israel "cynically, intentionally funded and propped up" Hamas "so they wouldn't face external pressure to give the Palestinians their freedom." Via Brian McGlinchey at Stark Realities, here's a deeper look at the history Smith was referring to.  

In the aftermath of the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by the Palestinian group Hamas, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared, “The forces of civilization must support Israel in defeating Hamas…In fighting Hamas, Israel is not only fighting for its own people, it is fighting for every country that stands against barbarism.”

Those sentiments are quite different from ones Netanyahu privately shared in 2019.

“Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas,” Netanyahu told Likud Party legislators, according to Haaretz, Israel's longest-running newspaper. Doing so would help prevent the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority (PA) from ruling Gaza and giving Palestinians a relatively moderate, unified voice at the negotiating table. “This is part of our strategy -- to isolate the Palestinians in Gaza from the Palestinians in the West Bank.”

Members of the Hamas al-Qassam Brigade at an event marking the anniversary of Israel’s 2014 war on Gaza (EPA-EFE/Mohammed Saber via Euractiv)

Israel’s reckless exploitation of Hamas is as old as the group itself. Indeed, decades before Netanyahu’s closed-door candor, the Israeli government pushed Hamas into its initial prominence, with direct and indirect financial support.

Throughout the 1970s, Israel’s nemesis was the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). In stark contrast to Hamas -- which emerged from the Muslim Brotherhood -- the PLO was a secular, leftist organization, led by Yasser Arafat, who headed the PLO’s Fatah faction.

As a former senior CIA official told UPI’s Richard Sale in 2001, Israel’s initial boosting of Hamas “was a direct attempt to divide and dilute support for a strong, secular PLO by using a competing religious alternative."

Islamist groups began rising in prominence in Gaza in the wake of the 1967 War, as they undertook educational, cultural, social and infrastructure initiatives to make life better for Palestinian refugees there.

When it first registered with Israeli authorities in 1978, Hamas was led by Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, a half-blind, wheelchair-bound Muslim cleric who launched schools and clinics throughout Gaza. Israel backed his efforts, and also approved the founding of the Islamic University of Gaza…which would become an extremist hub deemed worthy of Israeli bombs.

Israeli Brigadier General Yitzhak Segev, who was governor of Gaza and in frequent touch with Yassin, told the Wall Street Journal that he fully grasped Yassin’s ultimate aims -- to replace Israel with an Islamic state -- and the dangers of the Hamas ideology. However, at the time, Israel prioritized undermining the PLO-leading Fatah.

Israel cooperated with early Hamas leader Ahmed Yassin -- but killed him in 2004 with a rocket fired from a helicopter gunship as he was wheeled to prayer in Gaza City (BBC)

In the wake of Iran’s 1979 revolution that saw a secular, US-backed regime replaced with an Islamic republic, Hamas and other Islamists grew more popular, ambitious -- and violent. Regardless, Israel’s financial backing continued, a US intelligence source told UPI in 2001, saying the support now had an additional rationale -- to gain intelligence and identify the most dangerous of Hamas members.

However, another US government official highlighted a far more sinister Israeli aim: to obliterate the chance for progress in resolving the Israel-Palestinian conflict. “The thinking on the part of some of the right-wing Israeli establishment was that Hamas and the other groups, if they gained control, would refuse to have anything to do with the peace process and would torpedo any agreements put in place," the official said.

That would enable Israel to continue paying lip service to a two-state solution while disingenuously bemoaning its lack of a “partner for peace” on the Palestinian side. In the mean time, Israel would continue changing “facts on the ground” by demolishing Palestinian homes, authorizing more West Bank Israeli settlements and precluding the creation of a contiguous Palestinian state in the Israeli-occupied territory.

Israeli settlements have seemingly eliminated the possibility of a contiguous Palestinian state in the West Bank (graphic via Vox)

In 2015, Bazalel Smotrich, leader of the Religious Zionist Party and now Israel’s finance minister said, “On the international playing field, in this game of the delegitimization…the PA is a liability and Hamas is an asset. It’s a terrorist organization. Nobody will recognize it, nobody will give it status at the [International Criminal Court] and nobody will let them push resolutions at the UN.”

“In the eyes of the Israeli right, the real threat to Israel is not Hamas’ violence and terrorism -- the danger is a peace agreement…and the establishment of a Palestinian state,” wrote Meron Rapoport at Tel Aviv-based +972 Magazine.

Note that Hamas isn’t the only extremist group the Israeli right has shown a soft spot for. Under an earlier Netanyahu government, Israel gave medical assistance to wounded al-Qaeda members and sent them back to fight the secular, Iran-aligned government in Syria…where their group would abduct, torture and murder civilians too. Former Mossad chief Efraim Halevy said Israel’s aid was acceptable because “Al Qaeda, to the best of my recollection, has not attacked Israel.”

Before Oct. 7, referring to Hamas and Lebanon-based Hezbollah during a deposition for one of the corruption cases against him, Netanyahu said something that showcased the Israeli right's overconfidence in its ability to manage extremists on its borders:  

“We have neighbors who are bitter enemies…It’s impossible to reach an agreement with them…Everyone knows this, but we control the height of the flames.”

Stark Realities undermines official narratives, demolishes conventional wisdom and exposes fundamental myths across the political spectrum. Read more and subscribe at starkrealities.substack.com 

* * *

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/20/2024 - 23:40

Charter School Founders Accused Of Massive Fraud

Charter School Founders Accused Of Massive Fraud

Authored by Michael Clements via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Prosecutors are accusing three men of bilking Oklahoma out of millions of dollars in public school funds through a charter school plan that one of the defendants told a state district court prioritized income.

Former owners of Epic Youth Services Ben Harris (L) and David Chaney (R) enter the District Court of Oklahoma County in Oklahoma City with Mr. Chaney's lawyer, Gary Wood (C) on March 28, 2024. (Michael Clements/The Epoch Times)

Lawyers from the Oklahoma Attorney General’s office began outlining their case during preliminary hearings March 25–March 29 in the District Court of Oklahoma County, in Oklahoma City.

Their case is based on an investigation by the Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation (OSBI) and an investigative audit report released by the State Auditor and Inspector’s office on Oct. 1, 2020.

However, a lawyer for one of the defendants says his client is a legitimate businessman who has become the victim of incompetent state officials running a politically motivated investigation.

David Lee Chaney and Benjamin Scott Harris each face prison time and possibly millions in restitution if convicted of 15 criminal charges for their alleged scheme to defraud the state through Epic Charter Schools.

Joshua Brock, former chief financial officer, has agreed to plead guilty and testify for the state in exchange for 15 years of probation with restitution to be determined.

Slouched in the witness stand of Special Judge Jason Glidewell’s courtroom in the Oklahoma County District Court in Oklahoma City, Mr. Brock testified in a low monotone. He wore the tired, disinterested expression of a man who wants his case to end.

The Cushing native was friends with Mr. Harris and had a background in accounting and business finance. He said that around 2009, Mr. Harris began talking with him about charter schools. Mr. Brock also liked the idea of a public school run like a private school.

“I believe in the concept,” Mr. Brock testified.

In Oklahoma, charter schools are publicly funded and open to any student. A board oversees them and may not charge tuition. Charter schools must comply with open records and open meeting laws.

However, they are exempt from such requirements as collective bargaining and credentialing. Students can be taught online, in brick-and-mortar locations, or a combination of both. Parents and teachers have broad latitude in curriculum, hours, and other aspects of a child’s education.

The Oklahoma Department of Education website states that charter schools receive, “Flexibility in exchange for accountability.”

During a 2011 meeting in an Oklahoma City restaurant, Mr. Brock agreed to be the CFO for EYS and Indoor Air Quality Services (IAQS), a business Messrs. Harris and Chaney operated.

In those early days, IAQS paid Mr. Brock. Later, EYS would contract with Mr. Brock’s company, JAB Consulting.

According to a special investigative audit report released by Oklahoma State Auditor and Inspector Cindy Byrd in October 2020, the trio raked in at least $125 million of the $458 million in government funds disbursed to the school from 2015 to 2020.

Of that, $45.9 million was paid to Epic Youth Services, a for-profit management company the men set up to handle school affairs.

According to the report, EYS had no employees and was controlled entirely by Messrs. Harris, Chaney, and Brock.

EYS, and therefore the three men, controlled a “Student Learning Fund,” through which $79.3 million in public funds flowed, the report stated.

Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation (OSBI) Special Agent Mark Drummond testified that there may be even more. He said his investigation had found more than 100 accounts that might contain Epic Charter School money.

During preliminary hearings the week of March 25–March 29, 2024, Mr. Brock said EYS had few if any employees and one main objective.

“To minimize costs and maximize profit.”

(Left) Benjamin Harris; (Right) David Chaney each face 15 charges of alleged fraud committed while affiliated with Epic Charter Schools in Oklahoma. (Michael Clements/The Epoch Times)

Ms. Byrd confirmed that some law enforcement agencies are still investigating Epic Charter Schools, though she wouldn’t specify which ones.

She said she is holding on to a second audit report so as not to interfere.

“The second report is pending in the event that it may be needed,” she told The Epoch Times.

According to court records, Mr. Harris founded the non-profit Community Strategies Inc. (CSI) in 2005.

He and Mr. Chaney reportedly set up the for-profit Epic Youth Services (EYS) as the management company for the non-profit Epic Charter Schools. CSI, doing business as Epic Charter Schools, began operating in December 2010.

According to the audit report, funding from the State Department of Education and the federal government went to Epic’s sponsors, who kept 3 percent of sponsorship fees. The remaining 97 percent went to the charter schools through CSI.

The report states that the schools sent 10 percent of the total revenue, including the fees kept by the sponsors, to EYS and money to the Student Learning Fund, which EYS controlled.

Epic Charter’s first sponsor was Graham Public School in Ofuskee County, Oklahoma. Mr. Brock said the small K–12 school was struggling financially and was glad for the cash infusion.

In 2018, Epic split into Epic One-on-One, the online school, and Epic Blended.

Epic Blended is a virtual school that also provides work centers where students can use computers with internet access and receive other types of classroom support.

Rose State College now sponsors Epic Blended, and the Oklahoma Statewide Virtual Charter School Board sponsors Epic One-on-One, an online charter school.

On paper, EYS’s purpose was to handle Epic Charter School’s administrative work and manage its finances. Mr. Brock said that, in reality, EYS had a single purpose.

Joshua Brock (L), talks with his attorney Chris Box (R) in the Oklahoma County courthouse in Oklahoma City on March 29, 2024. (Michael Clements/The Epoch Times)

“The object was to minimize costs, maximize profit,” Mr. Brock testified on March 28.

Mr. Brock said it was the practice to ensure that all invoices added up to the total 10 percent management fee outlined in EYS’s contract. Early on, that was not difficult, as the invoices listed the fee amount.

However, in 2019, HB1395 became the law in Oklahoma. The new law mandated the Oklahoma Cost Accounting System (OCAS), which requires invoices to be itemized using OCAS codes.

Mr. Brock said that rather than lose money by accurately itemizing, he wrote computer code that automatically divided the fee among the same 14 OCAS codes each month.

So, regardless of how much funding Epic received or what EYS’s actual expenses were, the system would produce invoices totaling 10 percent of the revenue received every month.

Jeanice Wynn said she noticed the questionable invoices soon after she started work at Epic.

She was hired as Deputy Superintendent of Finance in 2021, shortly after the audit report was released. She testified that she took the job with some trepidation.

Epic had already been in the news due to a conflict with the Oklahoma Department of Education.

Disputes over enrollment, attendance requirements, and other issues had prompted then-Gov. Mary Fallin requested OSBI to look into the fledgling charter school in 2013.

While Epic prevailed in most of those disputes, rumors continued to fly.

Ms. Wynn testified that she believed her job had been created in response to the audit report. She said some things, like those oddly uniform invoices, caught her attention almost immediately.

She said the same 14 OCAS codes were used each month, and they always added up to 10 percent of Epic’s total revenue from the state.

According to Ms. Wynn, that is unusual at best.

“That doesn’t happen,” she said.

In addition, some of the codes seemed questionable. For example, invoices for the online school included food service.

When asked how much EYS paid to provide food for Epic’s online students, Mr. Brock answered succinctly.

“Not much, zero,” he said.

But, thanks to those invoices, by the time the Epic Charter School Board ended its management agreement with EYS on May 21, 2021, Mr. Harris had made $24.8 million, Mr. Chaney brought in $23 million, and Mr. Brock had received $8.7 million, Brenda Holt, director of the Investigative Audit Division of the State Auditor and Inspector’s office testified.

The Student Learning Fund is marketed as an account for each student to spend up to $1,000 for computers, books, musical instruments and lessons, extracurricular activities, tutoring, and similar education-related purchases.

For each Learning Fund purchase, EYS assessed an $85 service fee.

Ms. Wynn was tasked with addressing the auditors’ concerns over the fund. But, she only had access to money under Epic’s Tax ID number.

EYS controlled the Student Learning Fund, which auditors claimed was public money managed by Epic workers who were state employees.

“I expected [the Learning Fund personnel] to be on the payroll for EYS,” she told the court. (Mr. Brock) was approving (the EYS invoices), then receiving the payment [from Epic],” she said.

The auditors noted this as well.

“As the EYS CFO, Brock appears to be responsible for the submission of EYS’ invoices ... for both the management fees and the Student Learning Fund.

“As the One-on-One and Blended CFO, he oversees the payment of the same invoices. There is no system of checks and balances in place between the related entities,” the audit report reads.

Ms. Holt also testified about how credit cards were used in the Epic Charter School Student Learning Fund. She found the arrangement to be unusual.

“I had never seen that before,” she said.

Oklahoma City lawyer Joe White (L) leaves a District Court of Oklahoma County courtroom with Ben Harris (C) and co-counsel Kate White (R) on March 25, 2024. (Michael Clements/The Epoch Times)

The Student Learning Fund had two credit cards. A Visa card that was issued to the fund. Each Visa bore the name of the employee authorized to use it. The other was an American Express card issued to IAQS.

Ms. Holt said she learned that IAQS stood for Indoor Air Quality Services, the business owned by Mr. Chaney, who had initially been paid Mr. Brock for his services.

Ms. Holt said Epic Charter School employees made purchases using credit cards. EYS invoiced the purchases, and Epic Charter Schools paid those invoices with Learning Fund money.

She said auditors found approximately $817,000 worth of alleged personal purchases made with that card.

Of this, $748,000 appears to have been spent on purchases by Mr. Chaney and his wife.

The remaining $69,000 in personal purchases was split between two Learning Fund employees.

Ms. Holt said the charges included Southwest Airlines, Stub Hub, Men’s Wearhouse, Starbucks, and political donations, including two $2,700 donations to former Oklahoma Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister, who ran against Gov. Kevin Stitt in 2022.

Ms. Holt said she found that Mr. Chaney repaid $446,000 of those purchases, which left $327,000 for the Learning Fund to cover.

Court records also indicate that Mr. Brock allegedly received more than $1 million in illegal overpayments on a Visa card issued to him and used by the Student Learning Fund.

Ms. Holt said that a claim in the Oct. 21 audit report that EYS lawyers tried to prevent auditors from seeing any of the Learning Fund records was true.

According to the investigative report, auditors didn’t get a clear picture of the Student Learning Fund until they were able to access information OSBI had obtained in its investigation.

“[The State Auditor and Inspector] respects the privacy of private companies but is adamant that the stewardship and management of $79.3 million in state appropriated funds designated for student education should be transparent and the records be made available for audit,” the report reads.

Defense lawyers contend that EYS was a private business, so any money paid to it, including state monies meant for the Student Learning Fund, was private money no longer subject to government oversight.

David Chaney (2nd L) and Ben Harris (3rd L) sit at the defense table with Harris's lawyers Joe White (2nd R) and Kate White (L) on March 28, 2024. (Michael Clements/The Epoch Times)

Joe White, of Oklahoma City, represents Mr. Harris. Mr. White is tall and speaks with a country drawl and self-deprecating manner that belies a man ready to exploit any perceived chink in his opponent’s argument.

In court, he aggressively argued that the Student Learning Fund was money EYS earned, comparing it to a state employee’s paycheck.

Once you get paid, the state doesn’t get to audit your personal bank account, does it?” he asked Ms. Holt.

According to Ms. Holt, the figures in the audit report are relatively conservative. She said it’s her office’s policy to give the audited parties the benefit of the doubt.

We always try to err on the side of grace and not overstate any of the numbers,” she told the court.

The auditors claim that the Student Learning Fund was used to benefit more than Oklahoma students and the owners of EYS.

Ms. Wynn testified that in 2018, Mr. Harris told the board that Epic Charter Schools Oklahoma had opened Community Strategies—CA, LLC (CS-CA). CS-CA is the non-profit management company for Next Generation, Inc., doing business as Epic Charter Schools California.

“He informed those present that money had flowed to Epic California. There was discussion at that time about that money being paid back,” Ms. Wynn said.

In response to Mr. White’s question, she said she had seen no evidence that the money had been repaid.

According to the audit report, this resulted in the illegal use of Oklahoma tax money and employees to benefit California taxpayers.

Assistant Attorneys General McKenzie McMahon (L) and Colleen Galaviz (R), leaving a District Court of Oklahoma County courtroom on March 25, 2024. (Michael Clements/The Epoch Times)

Salesha Wilken is a former investigative reporter. She has worked for the State Auditor and Inspector’s office for the past nine years. She testified to finding evidence that EYS transferred Student Learning Fund money to Community Strategies California to “support expansion of EYS.”

She said it appeared the money was used to help the California operation meet payroll. California Strategies was also used to funnel money to the Panola Public Schools in Oklahoma when that district had a cash shortfall, she said.

According to the audit report, Epic One-on-One employees racked up $242,654.42 in labor between 2017 and 2020 working for CS-CA in California and Panola Public Schools in Oklahoma. Panola Public Schools was not part of Epic at that time.

The report states that none of this money was repaid until auditors began asking questions in 2020.

Auditors also found that $203,000 was transferred directly from the student Learning Fund into an Epic-California bank account at one point.

They have found no evidence that money was ever repaid, the report states.

“It shows that those funds were not being used for the students but were being used to enrich EYS,” Ms. Wilken testified. “EYS is the steward of those funds.”

Defense attorneys denied that any public money was misused.

They said the Student Learning Fund was an account owned by EYS, a private company. They contend that the money in the fund belongs to EYS to be used at EYS’s discretion.

“Private companies can dictate the rules concerning their private funds,” Mr. Chaney’s lawyer, Gary Wood, said.

The resolution to that question will determine more than the legal status of a bank account. When the EYS management contract ended in May 2021, there was approximately $5 million in the Student Learning Fund, which prosecutors say EYS was supposed to return to Epic Charter Schools. Instead, they say, the money was invested in several treasury bill accounts.

That money is now the subject of a lawsuit.

When Epic Charter Schools began operation in 2010, CSI’s board oversaw the work. Soon after, most of the CSI board members resigned and were replaced by Robert Stem, Peter Regan, Doug Scott, and Travis Burkett, the court file states.

EYS Attended Board Meetings

“[The board members] were largely acquaintances of Mr. Harris and or Mr. Chaney,” Mr. Brock testified. Investigators and former board member Douglas Scott said at least one of the defendants was present at most board meetings. However, they differ about the sway they held over the board.

“[Harris and Chaney’s] actions and behaviors were indicative of individuals with great influence over the school and the board.

“The board consistently voted unanimously during meetings, rarely questioning the recommendations given or actions taken by Chaney, Harris, and Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Brock,” the court file reads.

Douglas Scott is an attorney from Tulsa who served on the board from 2010 to 2021. He has known Mr. Chaney since they were both boys. But he denied that he or Mr. Harris unduly influenced the board.

“They attended the meetings,” Mr. Scott testified. “They had a broad range of duties.”

Mr. White said the implication that the board was manipulated ignores their commitment to the charter school.

He said board members were volunteers who helped build the largest public school in Oklahoma, which at its height had an enrollment of 60,000 students.

“And the enrollment kept going up, up, and up, didn’t it?” he asked Mr. Scott.

Mr. Scott agreed, saying that he spent a significant amount of time and resources working on behalf of the schools.

Jimmy Harmon, an assistant attorney general prosecuting the case, told the court that auditors found that board members did benefit from their association with Epic Charter Schools.

He said that former board member Robert Stem’s lobbying firm, Capitol Gains, was awarded a contract from Epic the same day he resigned from the board.

According to Mr. Brock, the lobbying deal netted Capitol Gains $520,000.

Mr. Harmon said Mr. Scott’s brother benefitted as well.

“His brother Greg received tens of thousands of dollars for computer work,” Mr. Harmon said.

Mr. White disputes the audit report’s findings.

He pointed out that Mr. Harris was arrested just five days before Ms. Byrd won her party’s nomination for state auditor and inspector. He doesn’t believe that’s a coincidence.

Ms. Byrd dismisses that contention as grasping at straws.

She says the investigations and audits began long before the 2020 elections and that she doesn’t need any high-profile cases to boost her campaign in an election she said she won by 70 points.

“I just can’t even believe that that’s a good defense,” she said.

Each man is charged with one count of racketeering, six counts of embezzlement, two counts of using a computer system or computer network to execute a scheme to defraud, two counts of presenting false claims to the state, and one count each of acquiring unlawful proceeds, acquiring unlawful proceeds in excess of $50,000, obtaining money by false pretenses, and money laundering.

Preliminary hearings are set to resume in May; no trial date has been set.

Epic Charter Schools and Epic Charter School California are still in operation with a new board and are no longer affiliated with Messrs. Brock, Chaney, or Harris.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/20/2024 - 23:05

From Fringe To Mainstream: The Rise Of The BJP In India

From Fringe To Mainstream: The Rise Of The BJP In India

Voters in India are getting set to head to the polls in what has been dubbed the world’s biggest election.

Nearly 1 billion people are eligible to vote and to determine whether 73-year-old Narendra Modi, leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), will rule the nation for a third consecutive term.

The elections kicked off yesterday (Friday) and will be carried out in seven phases due to the sheer size of the country, ending June 4.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the following chart, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance alliance won 303 out of 550 parliamentary seats in India’s Lok Sabha general elections in 2019 and 282 out of 543 parliamentary seats five years before. In this year’s elections, the NDC is projected to win as many as 399 seats.

 The Rise of the BJP in India | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Opposition parties have banded together, led by the Indian National Congress party (INC), to form a 26-member alliance, named the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) in an attempt to stop this from happening.

Critics decry the BJP as Hindu nationalists and fear that India will become further divided, accusing the incumbent government of having enabled the persecution of minorities, particularly Muslims, under their rule. Supporters meanwhile praise Modi for securing India’s place as a major global economic power.

The rise of the BJP as India’s majority party was an unlikely one.

Its predecessor, the right-wing Bharatiya Jana Sangh (BJS) party, gained only marginal support and joined the Janata Party (People’s Party), which won the 1977 elections as a catch-all union opposing the declaration of a state of emergency in the country.

After the Janata Party dissolved in 1980, the party was recreated as the BJP and started from the bottom again, gaining followers emphasizing Hindu national pride and hardline politics.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/20/2024 - 22:30

Calif. Dems Tout Ties To Criminal Leniency Group

Calif. Dems Tout Ties To Criminal Leniency Group

Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics,

The mayors of California's three biggest cities have rankled some progressive activists in recent months by joining a wave of fellow Democrats renouncing once popular initiatives to defund the police, reduce sentencing, and undertake other criminal justice reforms amid deep concerns over public safety. 

Facing a public backlash over rampant thefts and an epidemic of fentanyl deaths related to drug trafficking, San Francisco Mayor London Breed and San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria in recent months have joined the GOP fight to dismantle Proposition 47. That law, approved by voters in 2014, recategorized thefts below $950 from felonies to misdemeanors, and many critics blame it for the spate of smash-and-grab robberies at department and convenience stores across California. 

We should be locking up criminals, not laundry detergent,” Gloria, who refers to himself as a progressive Democrat, declared in his state-of-the-city address in January. 

Meanwhile, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has called for adding hundreds of police officers to the city’s rolls and boosting their pay. 

But Democratic incumbents and candidates in several of the most competitive U.S. House of Representatives races across California – the outcome of which will play a critical role in determining control of the chamber in the next Congress – are either swimming against the tough-on-crime tide or trying to avoid alienating a key ally. 

These Democrats have been touting their close ties to a progressive lobbying powerhouse that helped usher in some of the most controversial changes to criminal justice laws across the state in recent years. 

Equality California began as a Sacramento-based LGBTQ+ advocacy group 20 years ago but has since become a major player on several issues, including its self-proclaimed priority of transforming the Golden State’s criminal justice system. The influential organization, which rakes in millions from Hollywood celebrities and business interests and received a state grant windfall last year, has been instrumental in promoting a reform agenda that many prominent California Democrats are now trying to reverse. 

The group campaigned aggressively to eliminate cash bail for many types of crimes, legalize prostitution, shorten probation periods for misdemeanors and some felonies, and end qualified immunity for police, making it easier for victims of alleged excessive force and other police misconduct to sue officers. The push to lift legal protections for police failed on the federal level but largely succeeded in California when Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a Senate bill into law in the fall of 2021. 

In 2022, the group’s PAC also contributed $5,000 to embattled Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascon, the original author of Proposition 47. Gascon survived a close recall effort in 2022, just two months after San Francisco voters ousted District Attorney Chesa Boudin in a blow to the national movement toward more lenient prosecution given the city’s status as one of the nation’s most liberal enclaves. 

In the middle of the riots after the police-custody death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Equality California was one of several organizations that called for donations to groups on the “frontlines” of the protests, including the Minnesota Freedom Fund. That fund eventually received $35 million in donations during the tumultuous summer of 2020 and used the money to bail out dozens of defendants, including those accused of murder, violent felonies, and sex crimes. 

Like Equality California, the Minnesota Freedom Fund aggressively pushed for defunding the police and ending cash bail for all individuals accused of crimes. 

Under the “issues” section on its website, Equality California lists “criminal justice reform” first among all the issues it works on, including education, faith and religion, gun safety, hate crimes and safety, health care and HIV issues. 

“LGBTQ+ people face disproportionate rates of arrest, conviction, incarceration, and recidivism compared to their non-LGBTQ+ peers,” the website asserts in explaining why the group prioritizes reducing criminal penalties and is pushing for more leniency in other aspects of criminal justice law. 

Seven Democrats in the most competitive House races have touted their Equality California endorsements on social media. They include Adam Gray, Josh Harder, Joe Kerr, David Min, Will Rollins, Rudy Salas, and George Whitesides.

Whitesides (pictured at top), a former aerospace executive challenging GOP Rep. Mike Garcia in a key House battleground north of Los Angeles, has the closest ties to Equality California. He and his wife donated an undisclosed amount to the group in both 2020 and 2021. 

Those donations qualified the Whitesides as Equality California’s “regional influencers” for 2020 and 2021. It’s a title the couple shared with the hedge-fund billionaire Tom Steyer, record executive David Geffen’s foundation, California Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis and her husband, as well as Rep. Sara Jacobs (the granddaughter of Qualcomm founder Irwin Jacobs), and Tom Sandoval, a cast member of the TV reality series “Vanderpump Rules.” (The 2020 and 2021 annual reports do not list an amount associated with the “regional influencers” tier, but the group’s 2019 annual reports notes that a such a designation is earned for contributions of $10,000 to $19,999.)

Whitesides’ campaign did not respond to a request for comment about whether he backs Equality California’s criminal justice priorities. 

In February, Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor challenging veteran GOP Rep. Ken Calvert in a district stretching from Riverside to Palm Springs, touted his Equality California endorsement on X.com, along with a photo of himself dining with the group’s board of directors. 

“It was great joining @eqca board members of their board of directors lunch,” Rollins tweeted. “I am proud to be endorsed by Equality California in my race for Congress. When I get to D.C., I am going to fight to advance LGBTQ+ rights for all Americans. Together, we will win.” 

The Calvert-Rollins race is a closely fought rematch, with crime taking center stage. Rollins has touted his role as a prosecutor and has criticized Calvert for voting in favor of the First Step Act, President Trump’s signature justice reform package, which released more than 2,200 federal inmates in 2019. The bill was passed with broad bipartisan support in Congress before the pandemic-era crime spikes while the criminal justice reform agenda was gaining Republican and Democratic support. Media outlets have since reported that it released more than 100 violent criminals and sex offenders. 

In a local newspaper op-ed, Calvert tried to lump Rollins into the same camp as Gascon and Boudin, calling him “the worst kind of liberal prosecutor” who “routinely cuts soft plea deals with perps and wants to reduce sentences for criminals wreaking havoc on our streets.” Last month, Calvert’s campaign also cut a television ad calling Rollins “extreme” and noting that he “even supports reducing sentences for violent criminals including drug traffickers while California fentanyl deaths skyrocket.” 

Rollins has denied the accusations about supporting cash bail and lighter sentences for violent criminals and drug traffickers, asserting that he had a 99% conviction rate and helped put “murders, terrorists, MS-13 and Sinaloa cartel members in prison.” He was less forthright about cash bail, noting that defendants that pose a danger to society or are a flight risk should be detained before trial, but Rollins didn’t indicate whether he supports ending cash bail in other circumstances. 

The results of the Calvert-Rollins face-off in 2022 were so close that the Democratic hopeful was attending a new member orientation in Washington when new alerts came across his phone that he had lost to Calvert, the dean of the California delegation. 

David Min, a Democratic state senator running against GOP attorney and former state legislator Scott Baugh in a tight race for the Orange County seat vacated by Rep. Katie Porter, was the only Democrat to respond to RCP’s inquiry about the Equality California’s endorsement, and whether he backs the group’s criminal justice agenda.  

Concerns about public safety have been making headlines in the country in recent weeks as the traditionally more conservative area strives to discourage criminal elements from nearby Los Angeles from becoming active there. Last month, the Orange County District Attorney’s Office announced a novel public safety campaign aimed at deterring thieves with a message plastered on billboards and bus ads: “Crime doesn’t pay in Orange County.” 

“If you steal, we prosecute,” the signs sternly warn. 

Min, who was arrested last year for drunk driving in a taxpayer-funded car, still managed to outmaneuver fellow Democrat Joanna Weiss in the primary and secure the endorsement of Porter and the California Democratic Party. 

Min campaign spokesman Orrin Evans forwarded the lawmaker’s endorsements from the state’s largest police union, the Peace Officers Research Association of California, or PORAC, and the California Fraternal Order of Police. Evans also touted Min’s record of supporting police budget priorities, including successful requests he made for $2 million for a “real-time crime center” to help police track crime quickly and $1 million for new electric police cruisers. 

Sen. Min has always ensured that law enforcement and first responders have the tools they need to keep Southern California’s families safe and secure,” Roger Hilton, president of the state Fraternal Order of Police, said in a statement along with the endorsement. 

In contrast, Baugh has the backing of Orange County Sheriff Don Barnes and several House Republican leaders. In an interview with RCP, the former GOP leader of the state assembly cited a strong tough-on-crime record dating back to the 1990s. Barnes and local District Attorney Todd Spitzer also voted for Baugh to become the chairman of a local gang reduction and intervention program. 

Baugh, who previously served as county GOP chairman, countered that Min has supported some of the same sweeping criminal justice reforms as Equality California during his time in Sacramento. Min voted in favor of a 2021 bill eliminating cash bail and another measure in 2022 to automatically seal many felons’ criminal records, including domestic violence convictions. 

“Min’s hiding behind the PORAC labor endorsement to run from his progressive policies, including support for no-cash bail,” Baugh said in the interview. “This is the type of cowardly behavior we don’t need in Congress.” 

Equality California also keeps track of state and federal lawmakers’ legislative records on key priorities and issues an annual scorecard. In 2022, the score included votes on several bills, including the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act, which, if passed, would have eliminated qualified immunity for police. According to the Congressional Budget Office, it also would have cost local departments hundreds of millions of dollars in training and equipment just when several major cities across the country had slashed funding for police. 

While Congress was considering the measure, the Fraternal Order of Police argued that ending qualified immunity was “anti-police” and would drastically reduce the number of candidates choosing to become police officers. 

Over the past several years, police departments across the country, including in San Francisco and Los Angeles, have faced severe staffing shortages as they struggle to recruit and retain officers. At the height of the defund the police movement, California lost 2,100 police officers (with full arrest powers) and roughly 1,100 civilian staff, diminishing the number of patrol officers to 1991 levels. 

In 2021 Equality California scored votes on a handful of bills, including the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act and a measure that would have allowed adults who entered the U.S. as undocumented children to become lawful permanent residents and citizens. That year (and in 2022), Reps. Mike Levin, who is facing a rematch from GOP challenger Matt Gunderson, and Harder, who is in a tight contest against Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, earned 100% ratings from Equality California. 

As state legislators, Gray, Min, and Salas received a 100% rating on the group’s 2022 scorecard, with Min maintaining his perfect rating from 2021. 

With so many leading California Democrats backtracking on criminal justice reforms, Republicans plan to hammer their opponents who remain undecided about repealing Proposition 47 and other more lenient laws as soft on crime and weak on the border. Despite polls showing voters deeply concerned about illegal immigration and President Biden’s open border policies, California Democrats have continued to support broad amnesty for illegal immigrants and the state’s controversial sanctuary state law, both of which Equality California strongly backs. 

In the state, border issues may divide some heavily Latino districts, but Republicans have a greater chance for traction when it comes to crime. Americans’ worries about what they describe as the nation’s crime problems are at a recent high, with 63% characterizing public safety concerns as either extremely or very serious in a November Gallup survey. That’s up from 54% when Gallup last polled voters on the issue and the highest level the polling company has recorded in recent years. The prior high of 60% was recorded in the initial 2000 polling, as well as in 2010 and 2016. 

It's hard to predict whether support for specific criminal justice reforms, such as eliminating cash bail, will hold sway with voters. But with Breed, who is in a tough reelection fight for mayor, and other Democrats pivoting away from the reform movement, it will be easier to focus voters on the issue. 

While there is little comprehensive research about the impact of eliminating cash bail on crime, a study by the Yolo County District Attorney’s Office in Northern California early last year found that individuals released on cash-free or low-cost bail were much more likely to re-offend than those who pasted bail. They were also far more likely to commit new violent offenses. 

The study used a random sample of 100 people arrested during the county’s zero-bail policy, which was in effect from April 2020 through May 2021. It compared those results to 100 people who were arrested and posted bail in 2018 and 2019. The study found that people released were arrested for new crimes at an average rate 70% higher than those who posted bail, committed felonies 90% more often, and committed misdemeanors 123% more often. 

Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics' national political correspondent.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/20/2024 - 21:55

Contracts Between US Universities, China Total More Than $2 Billion: Investigation

Contracts Between US Universities, China Total More Than $2 Billion: Investigation

By Micaiah Bilger of The College Fix

Report comes amid concerns about CCP’s influence, human rights violations...

American universities have entered more than $2.3 billion in contracts with China in the past decade amid on-going concerns about the influence of its communist government on U.S. higher education, a new investigation found.

These contracts included agricultural research regarding orange crops, trainings for airline pilots, and medical trials for a tumor treatment drug developed by a Chinese pharmaceutical company, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The investigation uncovered approximately 2,900 contracts from 2012 and 2024 between Chinese businesses and about 200 U.S. public colleges and universities in all 50 states.

Some involved specialized training, such as $37 million in contracts between Chinese airlines and the University of North Dakota to train and license pilots.

Another $1.8 million in contracts with China’s Institute of Navel Orange at Gannan Normal University and the University of Florida involved researching tree genetics and diseases affecting citrus fruit, according to the investigation.

But others were less specific.

For example, “all three of China’s major government-owned oil companies have funded contracts for $100,000 or more at the University of Texas at Austin, which the school describes only as ‘research activity,’” the investigation found.

The report continued:

Some of the biggest-value China contracts feature franchise-type arrangements for overseas satellite campuses. New York University, which the Education Department database shows has been the largest single recipient of Chinese funding, reported two contracts totaling over $46.5 million for 2021 alone for its Shanghai branch.

The Juilliard School has disclosed over $133 million in such funding over more than a decade for its Tianjin Juilliard School near Beijing, appointed with some 120 Steinway pianos.

These partnerships have U.S. politicians, academics, and students concerned. The Chinese Communist Party has been accused of numerous human rights abuses, from free speech censorship to forced labor and torture to genocide of the Uyghurs, an ethnic minority population.

According to the report:

The Federal Bureau of Investigation and other agencies warn that China’s state has encouraged theft of technological secrets at universities, spread pro-Beijing propaganda, stifled campus debate and harassed students.

Beijing dismisses such characterizations. Its officials say ethnic Chinese students and professors have been unfairly targeted in the U.S., including on American campuses, and urged the U.S. to be mindful of its reputation for academic freedom. The Chinese Embassy in Washington didn’t respond to detailed questions about the university contracts.

American defense officials raised similar concerns about China and artificial intelligence technology in a 2021 report by the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence.

“China’s domestic use of AI is a chilling precedent for anyone around the world who cherishes individual liberty,” the report stated.

Meanwhile, the Athenai Institute, a bipartisan student-led organization, is urging U.S. universities to divest from Chinese government-controlled entities, The College Fix reported this month.

Lawmakers also have been taking action. In 2023, for example, Florida enacted a law restricting public universities and colleges “from accepting grants from or participating in partnerships or agreements” with China and other foreign countries “of concern.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/20/2024 - 20:45

Securities Analyst Jobs In China Are "Permanently" Disappearing

Securities Analyst Jobs In China Are "Permanently" Disappearing

The days of million dollar analyst jobs in the securities industry in China look to be all but gone.

That was the topic of a new Bloomberg article last week which detailed exactly how the industry is "retrenching after years of expansion". Bloomberg's description of the industry's cutbacks is based on discussions with about 20 analysts and former analysts, who chose to remain anonymous or only use their first names.

These reductions are occurring amidst a prolonged market downturn that has lowered trading commissions and increased regulatory restrictions on research publications. It marks a significant shift from previous years when brokerages were actively recruiting and offering substantial salaries to top analysts.

Several senior analysts at Shanghai's state-owned Guotai Junan Securities resigned following pay cuts and stricter performance requirements, the article points out.

Another Shenzhen-based brokerage cut 40% of its analyst staff and reduced their 2023 bonuses by over 50%. Additional cost-cutting measures at other firms include decreased meal and travel budgets.

Sun Jianbo, a former chief strategist at China Galaxy Securities Co. who now runs China Vision Capital, told Bloomberg: “Now with the trading fees cut, the bubble in the research circle will also burst.”

“There’s no other way around. The only thing that matters now is to stay employed. So my approach is to grab a job first and see what comes next," said one 28 year old energy analyst named Anna. 

She said her team was cut down from 7 analysts to 2. 

Chinese brokerages have traditionally assessed their research analysts based on the trading commissions—referred to as "soft dollars" or paidian—they generate from clients, rather than the accuracy of their forecasts, Bloomberg writes.

This approach spurred the aggressive expansion of research teams and high salaries for analysts. According to China Vision Capital, the number of sell-side analysts in China has surged by almost 70% over the last decade, now exceeding 4,800.

Major firms like China International Capital and Citic Securities employ over 300 and nearly 200 analysts, respectively. Top-performing analysts, particularly winners of popular research contests like New Fortune, could earn up to 10 million yuan annually.

According to Brook Zhang of Bo Le Associates, analysts with ten years of experience might earn a basic salary of about 800,000 yuan, while those with five years can earn around 500,000 yuan, with bonuses ranging from three to 24 months of pay depending on market conditions.

However, the landscape is shifting due to recent regulatory changes reducing trading fees and discouraging the use of commissions for research payments. Additionally, investor interest in China's stock market has waned after three years of losses, diminishing demand for equity research.

This, along with a downturn in sectors like proprietary trading and investment banking and new restrictions on stock market practices, is driving brokerages to significantly cut costs.

“I think these cuts reflect a structural change in the securities business and are hence permanent,” concluded Chen Zhiwu, a professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong. You can read Bloomberg's full report here

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/20/2024 - 20:10

Amid Budget Shortfall, San Francisco Reexamines Tax Burden On Big Businesses

Amid Budget Shortfall, San Francisco Reexamines Tax Burden On Big Businesses

Authored by Brian Back via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Facing mounting budget woes this election year, as spending far outpaces revenues, the City of San Francisco is scrambling to reform its infamously large and complex tax burden on business.

Several San Francisco companies have been mired in tax disputes with the city. Above, a view of downtown on Feb. 6, 2019. (Josh Edelson/AFP/Getty Images)

San Francisco’s five largest employers now account for nearly a quarter of the city’s total business tax revenue, according to an April 14 report in the San Francisco Examiner. If any were to relocate outside of the city, such would leave San Francisco—currently facing an $800 million budget deficit—vulnerable.

As such, Mayor London Breed and city officials are currently negotiating with business and labor leaders to devise tax reform measures for the November ballot that could simplify its tax code and even out the load on top businesses, the San Francisco Examiner reported.

In particular, city officials say they would like to see changes that would not incentivize businesses to move jobs out of San Francisco, since the city’s largest employers are required to pay a disproportionate amount of business taxes.

But shifting the tax burden elsewhere, such as increasing the city’s already large sales tax, could hurt a retail sector that has been decimated by a flurry of closures in recent years, analysts say.

City Controller Greg Wagner has said the complexity and number of new taxes passed by voters in recent years combined with a poor economy have increased tax disputes between the city and large businesses, according to Alyssa Sewlal, a spokesperson for his office.

Such disputes include a legal demand from General Motors for more than $121 million in tax refunds, as well as tens of millions of dollars in refund claims, and settlements and lawsuits on behalf of companies who say they were overtaxed such as Deloitte, Gap, WeWork, AppLovin, Chime Financial, and Block—formerly Square—since 2020, according to the San Francisco Examiner.

At the same time, the mayor’s office has been trying to direct more attention toward helping tourist-reliant businesses including hotels, restaurants, and arts and entertainment groups, including launching new small business grants and laying out plans to revitalize its downtown. Several such businesses have denounced the city’s street conditions, crime, costly permitting, and escalated taxes.

Factors such as a struggling office market aided by the rise of remote work, retail and commercial vacancies, poor recovery from the pandemic, and lagging tourism have played a role in revenues not keeping up with city spending that has increased significantly over the past decade.

Currently at $14.6 billion, San Francisco’s budget rivals most major U.S. cities. Because it is forecast to escalate by more than $1 billion over the next five years, the city will be on track to post a deficit surpassing $1 billion by 2027 barring major changes, the San Francisco Examiner reported.

City employee salaries, pension benefits, and health care costs are projected to increase by about $500 million within the upcoming four fiscal years, according to Ms. Breed’s office.

The mayor, who is up for re-election in November, told city departments in December they will be required to cut their budgets by about 10 percent in the upcoming fiscal year, and that they must also consider an additional 5 percent in cuts as a “contingency reduction.”

The city’s next budget, which goes into effect July 1, is scheduled to go before the San Francisco Board of Supervisors for a vote June 1.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/20/2024 - 19:35

"First Real Image" Of Chinese Supersonic Drone Attached To Bomber  

"First Real Image" Of Chinese Supersonic Drone Attached To Bomber  

Aviation observers have spotted a supersonic unmanned aerial vehicle under the fuselage of a People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) bomber, Defense Blog reports. The new drone can conduct strategic aerial reconnaissance across southeast Asia.

Images of the WZ-8 reconnaissance drone attached to a Xian H-6 bomber surfaced on social media platform X last week. The rare sighting reminds us that PLAAF, the third largest air force in the world, is quickly modernizing its aircraft fleet to include drones as tensions with the US over Taiwan remain high.  

First revealed to the public in 2019, WZ-8 provides pre-strike targeting information and/or post-strike assessments. The drone can also conduct strategic aerial reconnaissance across southeast Asia, including Taiwan and South Korea. 

In a separate Defense Blog report, citing classified papers obtained by The Washington Post, a fleet of WZ-8 drones are stationed in newly built hangars in the Lu'an airbase in eastern China. This base allows the supersonic drones to be easily deployed to Taiwan and South Korea for intelligence-gathering missions while flying at an altitude of 30 kilometers - untouchable to some of the world's most advanced air defense systems. 

As the world's AI superpowers, China and the US, gear up for potential drone wars in the Indo-Pacific region, the rapid advancement of swarm technology will be critical for winning the next major conflict, along with hypersonic weapons. The deployment of these technologies comes as war rages on in Eastern Europe and flares up in the Middle East. Banker Jamie Dimon recently warned the world faces "risks that eclipse anything since World War II." 

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/20/2024 - 19:00

Lord Of The Lies: A Pediatrician's Take On The Latest Child Gender-Transition Research

Lord Of The Lies: A Pediatrician's Take On The Latest Child Gender-Transition Research

Authored by J. Edward Les, MD, via The Epoch Times,

Last week’s release of the Cass Review brought to memory the old jingle: “Liar, liar, pants on fire; your nose is longer than a telephone wire.” Commissioned four years ago to probe the practices of the Tavistock gender clinic in Britain, the report methodically assembles a damning indictment of the flimsy evidence used to “transition” children.

Its author, retired pediatrician Dr. Hilary Cass, is polite and professional, but she pulls no punches in exposing the false foundation upon which the entire edifice of “gender-affirming care” is built.

Drawing extensively on a series of systematic literature reviews and in-depth interviews with doctors, parents, and patients, she writes:

“The reality is that we have no good evidence on the long-term outcomes of interventions to manage gender-related distress… for the majority of young people, a medical pathway may not be the best way to achieve this.”

Even social transitioning alone, she concludes, risks grave psychological harm for children.

And social transitioning is often a prelude to puberty blockers. Dr. Cass skewers the oft-cited narrative that blockers are harmless and reversible, pointing to evidence of permanent negative effects on bone density and neuropsychiatric functioning.

The report advises a U-turn from the “gender-affirming” construct of drugs and surgery toward a model of careful psychological counselling. Critically, this is the very “watchful waiting” approach that got Canadian psychologist Dr. Kenneth Zucker fired more than eight years ago as head of Toronto’s Centre for Addiction and Mental Health.

Dr. Cass delivers a scathing indictment of the shaky evidence for guidelines used by the World Professional Association for Transgender Health, The American Academy of Pediatrics, and the American Endocrine Society; and she exposes their repeated practice of using non-evidence-based guidelines to justify other non-evidence-based guidelines.

Not all lies are equal.

White lies are the (mostly) harmless sort we tell to spare someone’s feelings. Black lies are the malicious untruths told to gain unfair advantage or to cause harm to others.

But the “lord of the lies” is the “blue” lie: the sort of falsehood we tell each other and ourselves—often unknowingly—on behalf of our tribes.

Such as in William Golding’s “The Lord of the Flies,” when a group of boys convinces themselves, without evidence, that there’s a beast in the forest—a delusion that turns deadly for Simon and Piggy.

In my view, blue lies underpin the gospel of “gender-affirming care,” which has led thousands of otherwise erudite medical professionals to discard the truth of the gender binary in favour of blatant interference with normal pediatric physiology.

It’s important to emphasize that blue lies typically aren’t told with intent to mislead, or from a place of malevolence; their proponents genuinely believe they are on the side of truth.

Combatting blue lies, therefore, is extraordinarily difficult. But not impossible.

Two strategies are key:

First, we need powerful insiders - not just members of the tribe, but prominent figures within it to awake to their errors and begin to speak up.

Such as when Finnish physician Riittakerttu Kaltiala, one of the architects of Finland’s youth gender transition program, stepped up last October to say:

“Gender transition has gotten out of hand. When medical professionals start saying they have one answer that applies everywhere, or that they have a cure for all life’s pains, that should be a warning to all of us that something has gone very wrong.”

Unfortunately, a common response to the Cass Review by gender-fluidity adherents has been to double down. Take Dr. Kristopher Wells, Canada Research Chair for the Public Understanding of Sexual & Gender Minority Youth:

“The flawed UK Cass Report was issued today and is exactly what was expected from a country that is virulently anti-trans,” he said on social media.

His is the sort of reaction that Washington Post columnist Megan McArdle, writing about the horrors of frontal lobotomies, describes as “The Oedipus Trap”: a situation where “it can be so psychologically devastating to discover you’ve made a mistake… that you will do everything in your power to avoid recognizing it.”

Per Walter Scott: “Oh what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive!”

Therefore, a second strategy - expertly employed by Dr. Cass - is crucial: the careful and patient exhibition of evidence, without hyperbole and without rancour.

The Cass Review exposes a tangled web indeed.

For her efforts, and for her courage, Hilary Cass deserves our deepest thanks.

*  *  *

Dr. J. Edward Les, MD, is a pediatrician in Calgary and a senior fellow at the Aristotle Foundation for Public Policy.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/20/2024 - 18:25

Shipping Industry Pleads With UN For "Enhanced Military Presence" As Maritime Choke-Point Chaos Spreads

Shipping Industry Pleads With UN For "Enhanced Military Presence" As Maritime Choke-Point Chaos Spreads

Exactly one week ago, Iranian commandos seized a container ship affiliated with Israel as it passed through the Strait of Hormuz. This action sparked new fears of another maritime chokepoint becoming disrupted as the crisis in the Middle East escalated. It also prompted a plea by the international shipping industry to the United Nations, urging an increase in military patrols along key shipping routes. 

First reported by the maritime news website gGaptain, an open letter co-signed by 16 maritime industry associations and social partners, calls for urgent assistance and reminds countries about their responsibilities under international law.  

"However, the incident this weekend, when the vessel MSC Aries was seized by Iranian forces at 06.37 UTC – 50 nautical miles north-east of Fujairah, United Arab Emirates on Saturday 13 April, has once again highlighted the intolerable situation where shipping has become a target. This is unacceptable," the signatories of the letter stated. 

"Given the continually evolving and severe threat profile within the area, we call on you for enhanced coordinated military presence, missions and patrols in the region, to protect our seafarers against any further possible aggression," they said, adding, "The industry associations ask that all member states be formally reminded of their responsibilities under international law. And we ask that all efforts possible are brought to bear to release the seafarers and protect the safe transit of ships." 

After the MSC Aries seizure in the Strait of Hormuz, we published a note titled "Heading For Supply Shock? Four Maritime Chokepoints Flash Red As Escalating Conflict Looms," outlining the maritime chokepoints, including the Suez Canal, Bab-El Mandeb Strait, and Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of all global trade flows, that are experiencing increased conflict. 

In a recent note, MUFG provided a global snapshot of the world's maritime chokepoints. 

The team at ING Global Markets Research warned last week, "Global shipping routes are already heavily impacted from the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden because of ongoing geopolitical strife. If the Strait of Hormuz is in any way disrupted, the impact on oil and global trade could be huge." 

Disruptions along critical maritime chokepoints in the Middle East are a direct result of the failed foreign policy decisions pushed by the Biden administration and former President Obama. Furthermore, the inability of Western militaries to secure the southern Red Sea through Operation Prosperity Guardian is a sign of weakness as the world fractures into a multipolar state of chaos. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/20/2024 - 17:50

St. Louis University Hosts Dylan Mulvaney, Denies College Republicans Request For Event With Former NCAA Swimmer A Day Later

St. Louis University Hosts Dylan Mulvaney, Denies College Republicans Request For Event With Former NCAA Swimmer A Day Later

By Adam Sabes of Campus Reform

St. Louis University plans to host transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney to speak on campus next week and denied College Republicans’ request to host an event with a former NCAA swimmer a day later.

The event will be hosted by the St. Louis University Great Issues Committee on Monday, which is part of the school’s Student Activities Board, according to the St. Louis Post.

Mulvaney gained attention in April 2023 after a paid partnership with Bud Light, sparking heavy criticism from conservatives.

According to the report, St. Louis University College Republicans President Alexandra Leung said that administrators at the institution denied their request to host Paula Scanlan, a women’s sports activist.

Despite the event occurring a day after Mulvaney’s speech, the university said that its security couldn’t accommodate the event.

“Mulvaney’s comments have been deemed disrespectful and derogatory towards women and to SLU’s central mission,” said Leung.

While Leung says that Mulvaney’s message is at odds with the university’s catholic teachings, her College Republicans chapter has no plans to protest the event.

While St. Louis University didn’t disclose how much the speech costs, in Summer 2023, there was an honorarium of $40,000 for organizations interested in hosting Mulvaney for an event, according to YAF.

Just a few months prior, the University of Pittsburgh’s Rainbow Alliance secured $26,250 from its student government to host Mulvaney.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/20/2024 - 17:15

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