WTI Holds Gains Despite Big Crude Build, New Record US Crude Production

Oil prices are bouncing modestly off of yesterday's ugly drop driven by OPEC+'s outlook for a sizable surplus (glut) ahead. The IEA also flagged a deteriorating outlook for a sixth consecutive month, saying in a report on Thursday that supply will exceed demand by just over four million barrels a day next year.

“There’s a lot of oil supply that’s coming back from the OPEC+ countries,” Chevron Corp. Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth told Bloomberg Television.

“There’s a period of time when it would appear we’re going to see more supply coming into the market than demand will be able to absorb.”

At the same time, Bloomberg reports that the Trump administration has moved to raise the pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine, including sanctions on Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC. An oil trading firm that’s a unit of Russian oil giant Lukoil is starting to terminate jobs with days to go until sanctions fully kick in.

“The latest round of sanctions appear significant and there’s clear risk to supply,” Toril Bosoni, head of the oil markets division at the International Energy Agency, said in a Bloomberg TV interview.

That, coupled with Ukraine attacks against Moscow’s energy infrastructure, has helped to support fuel prices and offer a support to oil markets otherwise weighed down by oversupply fears.

Overnight, API reported a modest crude build.

Quick reminder that this week’s data won’t include the effect of the US government shutdown on aviation and, therefore, jet fuel demand and inventories. That will come in next week’s data after airlines began curtailing flights on Nov. 7. 

API

• Crude +1.3mm

• Cushing -43k

• Gasoline -1.4mm

• Distillates +944k

DOE

• Crude +6.413mm - biggest build since July

• Cushing -346k

• Gasoline -945k

• Distillates -637k

Crude inventories surged higher for the second week in a row (biggest build since July), modestly offset by small drawdowns for products (down for six straight weeks)...

Source: Bloomberg

The last two weeks have lifted US crude stocks to their highest in five months, but we note on a seasonal basis, it continues to lag recent years...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production surged by over 200k b/d last week to a new record high despite the ongoing slide in the rig count...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is holding on top its modest gains off yesterday's plunge lows for now...

Source: Bloomberg

The bearish outlook for next year has triggered a key indicator - WTI’s prompt spread - to sink into contango...

Source: Bloomberg

That pricing pattern, with the nearest contracts trading at discounts to further-out ones, signals ample short-term supplies, though it also recovered Thursday.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/13/2025 - 12:10

WTI Holds Gains Despite Big Crude Build, New Record US Crude Production

Oil prices are bouncing modestly off of yesterday's ugly drop driven by OPEC+'s outlook for a sizable surplus (glut) ahead. The IEA also flagged a deteriorating outlook for a sixth consecutive month, saying in a report on Thursday that supply will exceed demand by just over four million barrels a day next year.

“There’s a lot of oil supply that’s coming back from the OPEC+ countries,” Chevron Corp. Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth told Bloomberg Television.

“There’s a period of time when it would appear we’re going to see more supply coming into the market than demand will be able to absorb.”

At the same time, Bloomberg reports that the Trump administration has moved to raise the pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine, including sanctions on Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC. An oil trading firm that’s a unit of Russian oil giant Lukoil is starting to terminate jobs with days to go until sanctions fully kick in.

“The latest round of sanctions appear significant and there’s clear risk to supply,” Toril Bosoni, head of the oil markets division at the International Energy Agency, said in a Bloomberg TV interview.

That, coupled with Ukraine attacks against Moscow’s energy infrastructure, has helped to support fuel prices and offer a support to oil markets otherwise weighed down by oversupply fears.

Overnight, API reported a modest crude build.

Quick reminder that this week’s data won’t include the effect of the US government shutdown on aviation and, therefore, jet fuel demand and inventories. That will come in next week’s data after airlines began curtailing flights on Nov. 7. 

API

• Crude +1.3mm

• Cushing -43k

• Gasoline -1.4mm

• Distillates +944k

DOE

• Crude +6.413mm - biggest build since July

• Cushing -346k

• Gasoline -945k

• Distillates -637k

Crude inventories surged higher for the second week in a row (biggest build since July), modestly offset by small drawdowns for products (down for six straight weeks)...

Source: Bloomberg

The last two weeks have lifted US crude stocks to their highest in five months, but we note on a seasonal basis, it continues to lag recent years...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production surged by over 200k b/d last week to a new record high despite the ongoing slide in the rig count...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is holding on top its modest gains off yesterday's plunge lows for now...

Source: Bloomberg

The bearish outlook for next year has triggered a key indicator - WTI’s prompt spread - to sink into contango...

Source: Bloomberg

That pricing pattern, with the nearest contracts trading at discounts to further-out ones, signals ample short-term supplies, though it also recovered Thursday.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/13/2025 - 12:10

Verizon Set To Axe 15,000 Jobs Right Before Thanksgiving Holiday

The optics look awful for Verizon Communications if the Wall Street Journal's report is accurate: the carrier is preparing for its largest job cuts ever just days before millions of Americans hit the road for Thanksgiving. 

WSJ says Verizon is planning to cut 15,000 jobs. If that figure is correct, Bloomberg's latest data suggests this would be about 15% of its roughly 100,000-person workforce. WSJ notes this would be the largest workforce reduction on record for the carrier. 

Most of the job reductions will come from direct layoffs, and the carrier will shift 200 corporate stores into franchise operations, removing those employees from Verizon's payroll. 

For three consecutive quarters, Verizon has been losing postpaid phone subscribers, putting pressure on leadership to stop the hemorrhaging.  

Earlier, Verizon chairman Mark Bertolini told CNBC's Becky Quick on "Squawk Box" that the company needs to "do something different" as it undergoes its leadership change.

Bertolini said the carrier's new CEO, ex-PayPal boss Dan Schulman, is working on a turnaround plan after share losses under former CEO Hans Vestberg. 

"Verizon has gone from number one in market cap, bond ratings and market share to number three. And the network isn't as differentiated as it used to be, in large part because everybody's been spending money to put these 5G networks in place," Bertolini said. "So losing 30% share over the last eight years is an issue, and we have to do something different."

Bertolini added that Schulman will reveal his plan to turn the company around "sooner rather than later."

Schulman recently pledged to "aggressively transform our culture, our cost structure, and the financial profile of Verizon in order to put our customers first, compete effectively, and deliver sustainable returns for our shareholders."

Shares of Verizon in New York are up only 4% year to date, after being halved since peaking around $60 a share in late 2021.

T-Mobile appears to be the winner in the 'carrier wars'... 

Rest assured, AI will drive deeper workforce cuts in the years ahead. Everyone is starting to figure out what we've known for years (read here)

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/13/2025 - 12:00

Verizon Set To Axe 15,000 Jobs Right Before Thanksgiving Holiday

The optics look awful for Verizon Communications if the Wall Street Journal's report is accurate: the carrier is preparing for its largest job cuts ever just days before millions of Americans hit the road for Thanksgiving. 

WSJ says Verizon is planning to cut 15,000 jobs. If that figure is correct, Bloomberg's latest data suggests this would be about 15% of its roughly 100,000-person workforce. WSJ notes this would be the largest workforce reduction on record for the carrier. 

Most of the job reductions will come from direct layoffs, and the carrier will shift 200 corporate stores into franchise operations, removing those employees from Verizon's payroll. 

For three consecutive quarters, Verizon has been losing postpaid phone subscribers, putting pressure on leadership to stop the hemorrhaging.  

Earlier, Verizon chairman Mark Bertolini told CNBC's Becky Quick on "Squawk Box" that the company needs to "do something different" as it undergoes its leadership change.

Bertolini said the carrier's new CEO, ex-PayPal boss Dan Schulman, is working on a turnaround plan after share losses under former CEO Hans Vestberg. 

"Verizon has gone from number one in market cap, bond ratings and market share to number three. And the network isn't as differentiated as it used to be, in large part because everybody's been spending money to put these 5G networks in place," Bertolini said. "So losing 30% share over the last eight years is an issue, and we have to do something different."

Bertolini added that Schulman will reveal his plan to turn the company around "sooner rather than later."

Schulman recently pledged to "aggressively transform our culture, our cost structure, and the financial profile of Verizon in order to put our customers first, compete effectively, and deliver sustainable returns for our shareholders."

Shares of Verizon in New York are up only 4% year to date, after being halved since peaking around $60 a share in late 2021.

T-Mobile appears to be the winner in the 'carrier wars'... 

Rest assured, AI will drive deeper workforce cuts in the years ahead. Everyone is starting to figure out what we've known for years (read here)

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/13/2025 - 12:00

Verizon Set To Axe 15,000 Jobs Right Before Thanksgiving Holiday

The optics look awful for Verizon Communications if the Wall Street Journal's report is accurate: the carrier is preparing for its largest job cuts ever just days before millions of Americans hit the road for Thanksgiving. 

WSJ says Verizon is planning to cut 15,000 jobs. If that figure is correct, Bloomberg's latest data suggests this would be about 15% of its roughly 100,000-person workforce. WSJ notes this would be the largest workforce reduction on record for the carrier. 

Most of the job reductions will come from direct layoffs, and the carrier will shift 200 corporate stores into franchise operations, removing those employees from Verizon's payroll. 

For three consecutive quarters, Verizon has been losing postpaid phone subscribers, putting pressure on leadership to stop the hemorrhaging.  

Earlier, Verizon chairman Mark Bertolini told CNBC's Becky Quick on "Squawk Box" that the company needs to "do something different" as it undergoes its leadership change.

Bertolini said the carrier's new CEO, ex-PayPal boss Dan Schulman, is working on a turnaround plan after share losses under former CEO Hans Vestberg. 

"Verizon has gone from number one in market cap, bond ratings and market share to number three. And the network isn't as differentiated as it used to be, in large part because everybody's been spending money to put these 5G networks in place," Bertolini said. "So losing 30% share over the last eight years is an issue, and we have to do something different."

Bertolini added that Schulman will reveal his plan to turn the company around "sooner rather than later."

Schulman recently pledged to "aggressively transform our culture, our cost structure, and the financial profile of Verizon in order to put our customers first, compete effectively, and deliver sustainable returns for our shareholders."

Shares of Verizon in New York are up only 4% year to date, after being halved since peaking around $60 a share in late 2021.

T-Mobile appears to be the winner in the 'carrier wars'... 

Rest assured, AI will drive deeper workforce cuts in the years ahead. Everyone is starting to figure out what we've known for years (read here)

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/13/2025 - 12:00

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 8 November

Due to a comparison against election week in 2024, the U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 8 November. ...

26 October through 1 November 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 64.2% (+2.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$162.70 (+3.6%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$104.42 (+6.2%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.
On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.