After 2024 Losses, Hardball Democrat Lawyer Marc Elias Vows To Fight Back In '26 And '28

Authored by Paul Sperry via RealClearPolitics,

Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias had a rough election. Several of his clients, notably Kamala Harris and Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey, fell to defeat.

But instead of accepting their losses, Elias disputed the presidential and senatorial results in Pennsylvania, leading to charges that Elias, a self-advertised "democracy defender," is what he's accused Donald Trump of being: an "election denier."

With the races now settled – and many of his skeptical posts on X deleted – Elias is unrepentant and remains defiant. Not only is he shaking off the criticism, but he is vowing to fight Trump and Republicans even harder in court in 2026 and 2028.

"Democrats need to oppose, and not simply resist, a second Trump presidency," the lawyer said last week.

This time, Elias promises to employ more "ruthless" tactics to stop Trump, Republicans, and their MAGA agenda.

"All legal tactics must be on the table," he added in his recent blog post. "We must be comfortable using every legal tool available to challenge Trumpism in court."

Elias believes he will get favorable rulings because "more than half of federal judges were appointed by Democratic presidents," and "many state courts are controlled by liberals."

"The judiciary is the best hope we have to stop Donald Trump from running through American democracy," he asserted on his podcast.

Elias continues to bring legal challenges in several states. He recently noted there are still 211 voting or election cases pending in 40 states.

His anti-Trump crusade has gotten personal. In his trademark smashmouth style, Elias has called Trump both "Hitler" and a "buffoon." Now he worries Trump has targeted him for attack.

"I fear the threat of retribution, political vengeance,” he said in a recent column. Elias notes that Trump's nominee for FBI director, Kash Patel, has branded him "an enemy."

While claiming to protect voting rights, elections, and the democratic process, Elias' partisan actions in the wake of the 2024 election stand in tension with his past statements excoriating Trump for denying the 2020 results and trying to "steal the election."

After the Associated Press and ABC News called the 2024 Pennsylvania Senate race for GOP challenger Dave McCormick, Elias refused to accept the loss suffered by his client Casey.

“The Pennsylvania Senate race is not over,” Elias insisted on X (a post he has since deleted).

Instead of advising Casey to concede, he demanded a recount. Meanwhile, he sued state election officials over provisional ballots, which he argued should be counted even though they were ruled invalid.

When McCormick countersued to throw out such ballots, Elias complained: “Candidates who believe they have won don’t file lawsuits like this. Very strong Trump 2020 vibes.”

But the Republican National Committee said the desperate party was Elias.

“We actually have legal filings by the Bob Casey campaign filed by Marc Elias, where they have called on votes that are cast by individuals who are not registered to vote to be counted," RNC Chairman Michael Whatley said. “They have taken every step that they can to try and engineer votes that would overturn this margin.”

In the end, Casey struck out on the recount, and his high-priced lawyer whiffed in court. Casey finally conceded the election to McCormick after 16 days of protesting the result on the advice of counsel.

Elias even disputed Trump’s own clear victory in Pennsylvania, where he beat Vice President Kamala Harris by 171,000 votes.

“Trump knows he is losing Pennsylvania,” the Harris campaign lawyer claimed in a post on X, also since deleted.

Asked for a response, Elias spokesman Blake McCarren did not comment. 

It’s not the first time the controversial Duke-educated attorney, who keeps a “BEWARE OF ATTACK DEMOCRAT” sign behind his desk, has doubted the results of elections and used questionable tactics to try to overturn them.

In 2021, Elias pushed the House Democratic leadership to nullify the victory of GOP Iowa Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks over his Democratic client Rita Hart. Meeks’ narrow win had already been certified by Iowa when Elias asked Congress to essentially kick her out of office; she remains in Congress. In 2018, he represented Democratic Florida Sen. Bill Nelson in his recount loss to Republican challenger Rick Scott. And in 2008, Elias was able to switch  a Senate seat in Minnesota from an incumbent Republican to Democrat Al Franken by shopping for a friendly judge to count previously rejected ballots and overturn the lead of GOP Sen. Norman Coleman.

'Extreme' Gerrymandering

While Elias has decried what he calls "grotesque partisan gerrymandering” by Republicans in red states like North Carolina, court records show he defended Democrats doing the same thing in blue states, including New York, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Maryland.

In Maryland, a state court ruled in 2022 that the Democrat-drawn map pushed by Elias was so one-sided against Republicans that it “subverts the will of those governed.” The judge tossed out the map for “extreme partisan gerrymandering.” The same year, a federal judge in New York rejected Elias’ lawsuit to reshape congressional districts to favor Democrats as a “Hail Mary pass.”

Federal Election Commission records reveal Elias has earned millions of dollars from redistricting clients – such as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Eric Holder’s National Democratic Redistricting Committee, along with its affiliate, the National Redistricting Action Fund – to assist their efforts to redraw electoral maps to protect Democratic congressional seats in blue states.

One year after publicly mocking Trump and his campaign lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, over their unfounded claims that Dominion voting machines switched Trump votes to Biden in 2020, Elias himself blamed the same Dominion "voting tabulation machines" for a Democratic client's loss in New York. In 2021, Elias unsuccessfully claimed machine “irregularities” had somehow undercounted thousands of votes for Rep. Anthony Brindisi. But a judge rejected his complaint, ruling that there were “no discrepancies” with the machine counts while denying his request for a hand recount of the votes. FEC records show Brindisi paid Elias $8,230 for legal services.

Publicly, Elias has railed against the infusion of “dark money” in Republican campaigns. But behind the scenes, he's lobbied to lift campaign finance caps and is credited with helping create the so-called “super PAC,” political committees that can accept unlimited contributions from dark money groups.

“Well before Marc was litigating major voting cases, he was a campaign-finance lawyer, fighting against regulation on the Democrat side,” said UCLA election law professor Rick Hasen. “It was Marc working to loosen campaign-finance limits on political parties, a move that has increased the role of big money in influencing candidates through the political parties.”

Shortly before the 2016 election, billionaire left-wing donor George Soros, whom Elias views as "a hero,” gave at least $5 million to Elias and his law firm to fight voter ID requirements at polling places. Dark money groups also helped fund his legal work in the 2020 election. When reporters pointed this out, he threatened to make it easier to sue journalists for defamation he threatened to make it easier to sue journalists for defamation, arguing the courts should “revisit New York Times v Sullivan,” the landmark libel case that makes it harder for public figures to sue for defamation. (He’s since deleted the tweet.)

'Dark Money' Double Standard

What’s more, two nonprofit groups Elias founded, Democracy Docket Legal Fund and Democracy Docket Action Fund, are “both projects of the Arabella Advisors dark money funding network,” according to the Capital Research Center. They provide him almost unlimited cash to file lawsuits across the country to block GOP measures to prevent voter fraud.  Arabella manages several nonprofit “dark money” funders, who in turn channel money to Elias' groups, according to the Capital Research Center.

Notwithstanding his rhetoric about “protecting voting rights,” critics say Elias' primary concern is making sure Democrats have the advantage in elections. Indeed, his law firm, the Elias Law Group, acknowledges on its website that it is “committed to helping Democrats win."

When Elias says he’s fighting against “voter suppression” by Republicans, detractors say he’s really fighting against laws to stop voter fraud, such as non-citizens illegally casting votes for Democrats. Former White House press secretary and GOP pundit Ari Fleischer warned that what Elias did in Pennsylvania is a harbinger of how Democrats plan to count votes in future close races. “They want people who aren’t registered, don’t have IDs, or live out of state to be counted,” he said on X.

After the election, Elias complained he had lost more than 50,000 followers on X. He has used the political platform to plug his digital newsletter, "Democracy Docket,” and attract paid subscribers for the for-profit website, which he started in 2020. He has done this even while defending Media Matters against a defamation lawsuit brought by Elon Musk. The liberal watchdog claimed X promotes Nazism. 

While Elias claims “Donald Trump tried to subvert the election results in a lot of different ways in 2020,” he himself used a variety of dirty tricks to influence the election held four years earlier, which caught the eye of federal prosecutors who subpoenaed him to testify about his election meddling in court in 2022. 

In 2016, while working as Hillary Clinton's campaign lawyer, Elias hired D.C. opposition research shop Fusion GPS and former FBI informant Christopher Steele to feed the FBI false information about connections between Trump and the Kremlin to generate an investigation of the Republican opponent so, as Special Counsel John Durham suggested, he could turn around and tell his media contacts that Trump was being investigated in the hopes of swinging the election in Clinton's favor. During the same month he commissioned Steele, Elias hired the cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike to write a public report blaming Russia for hacking the Clinton campaign. In his since-debunked dossier, Steele went a step further, pinning the hacking on not just Russia but also the Trump campaign.

Also in 2016, Elias collaborated with Clinton campaign official Jake Sullivan (now President Biden’s national security adviser) on the Russian Alfa Bank hoax targeting Trump, resulting in another dead-end FBI probe. After Elias’ campaign schemes fell under the scrutiny of Durham in 2020 and 2021, Elias scrubbed several years of posts from his X feed.

Critics say Elias seems to morph into those he denounces.

“Elias insisted that [Trump] was an election denier and [a] threat to democracy,” said George Washington University law professor Jonathan Turley. “What is hypocrisy to some is a living to others."

Paul Sperry is an investigative reporter for RealClearInvestigations. He is also a longtime media fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution. Sperry was previously the Washington bureau chief for Investor’s Business Daily, and his work has appeared in the New York Post, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and Houston Chronicle, among other major publications.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/11/2024 - 08:55

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in November, after rising 0.2 percent in each of the previous 4 months, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in November, accounting for nearly forty percent of the monthly all items increase. The food index also increased over the month, rising 0.4 percent as the food at home index increased 0.5 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent. The energy index rose 0.2 percent over the month, after being unchanged in October.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in November, as it did in each of the previous 3 months. Indexes that increased in November include shelter, used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, medical care, new vehicles, and recreation. The index for communication was among the few major indexes that decreased over the month.

The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending November, after rising 2.6 percent over the 12 months ending October. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.3 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 3.2 percent for the 12 months ending November. The food index increased 2.4 percent over the last year.
emphasis added

The change in CPI was close to expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

Judge Rejects The Onion's Purchase Of Alex Jones' Infowars In Bankruptcy Sale

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge in Texas on Dec. 10 rejected the auction sale of Alex Jones’s Infowars website to satirical publication The Onion, ruling that the process did not result in the best possible bids and citing concerns about transparency in the auction.

The Onion was named the winning bidder of Infowars’ assets during the Nov. 14 auction, part of a personal bankruptcy case Jones filed in late 2022 after he was ordered to pay nearly $1.5 billion in several defamation lawsuits.

The lawsuits were filed against Jones in Connecticut and Texas by relatives of victims of the 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, which Jones repeatedly claimed was staged as part of a government plot to increase gun control.

A total of 20 children and six educators were killed in the shooting. Jones has since acknowledged that the shooting took place and was “100 percent real.”

He said that he attempted to correct the claims that he initially made, but that “[the media] won’t let me take it back.”

Following a two-day hearing in Houston, U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Christopher Lopez said he would not approve the sale. He rejected claims by Jones that the bankruptcy auction was plagued with collusion and fraud but noted problems, not wrongdoing, with the auction process.

The Onion’s bid of $1.75 million with additional incentives for Infowars’ assets was backed by the families of the massacre victims. The bid won despite a higher $3.5 million cash offer from First United American Companies, which runs a website in Jones’ name and sells nutritional supplements.

The Connecticut-based Sandy Hook families, who are Jones’ largest creditors, augmented the Onion’s bid by agreeing to forgo $750,000 of the proceeds from the sale in favor of other creditors, providing the creditors with more money than First United’s higher cash offer.

That concession caused the bankruptcy trustee to value The Onion’s bid at $7 million overall.

The judge said Christopher Murray, a court-appointed trustee who oversaw the auction made “a good-faith error” when he asked for final offers for Infowars instead of encouraging more back-and-forth bidding between The Onion and First United American Companies.

“This should have been opened back up, and it should have been opened back up for everybody,” Lopez said.

“It’s clear the trustee left the potential for a lot of money on the table.”

Lopez also said the two offers for Infowars were just a fraction of the money that Jones has been ordered to pay in defamation lawsuits, and noted the extent of his debts. He left it up to the trustee to resolve the disputes between the creditors before making a new attempt to sell Infowars.

After winning the auction in November, The Onion said it planned to relaunch Infowars in January as a parody website alongside advertiser Everytown for Gun Safety, the largest gun violence prevention organization in the country.

In a complaint filed in November, Jones urged the federal bankruptcy court in Texas to disqualify The Onion’s bid and instead recognize First United American Companies as the rightful winner of the auction.

Lopez’s ruling puts The Onion’s plan to take possession of the Infowars website and its associated assets on hold.

In a Dec. 11 social media statement, Ben Collins, CEO of The Onion’s parent company, Global Tetrahedron, said the publication is “deeply disappointed” but will “continue to seek a resolution that helps the Sandy Hook families receive a positive outcome for the horror they endured.”

Collins said the company will also continue to “seek a path” towards purchasing Infowars in the coming weeks.

“It is part of our larger mission to make a better, funnier internet, regardless of the outcome of this case,” Collins said.

Christopher Mattei, a lawyer for the Sandy Hook families who sued Jones in Connecticut, also expressed disappointment over the judge’s ruling.

Neil Heslin, father of Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting victim Jesse Lewis, holds a picture of him with Jesse during a hearing in Washington in a file image. Alex Wong/Getty Images

“These families, who have already persevered through countless delays and roadblocks, remain resilient and determined as ever to hold Alex Jones and his corrupt businesses accountable for the harm he has caused,” Mattei said in a statement.

“This decision doesn’t change the fact that, soon, Alex Jones will begin to pay his debt to these families and he will continue doing so for as long as it takes.”

The Epoch Times has contacted Jones for comment.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/11/2024 - 08:25

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 5.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 6, 2024. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Thanksgiving Holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 5.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 50 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 27 percent from the previous week and was 42 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 30 percent compared with the previous week and was 4 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates decreased again for the third consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate dipping to 6.67 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Applications increased 5 percent, driven by a 27-percent surge in refinance activity, as borrowers with higher rates acted on the chance to lower their payments. VA refinance applications were up 85 percent from the previous week, matching some of the larger swings in VA activity reported in recent months.”

Added Kan, “Purchase applications remained relatively strong and have shown annual gains in all but one week over the past three months. In addition to lower rates, purchase activity continues to be supported by sustained housing demand and inventory that continues to grow gradually in many markets.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.67 percent from 6.69 percent, with points decreasing to 0.66 from 0.67 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 4% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is up about 24% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index increased as mortgage rates declined in September but has decreased as rates moved back up.

China Deploys 'Astonishing' Number Of Warships After Taiwan President's Trip To Hawaii, Guam 

While all eyes in the West have been busy following events in Syria, Ukraine, and Gaza - China's military has been making big moves around Taiwan, and interestingly this comes with just weeks to go before the new Trump administration enters the White House.

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry announced Tuesday that it is monitoring a surge of Chinese military activities in the Taiwan Strait and Western Pacific. This state of 'high alert' has been on since Monday, and new major PLA military drills are expected.

Illustrative via AFP

The deployment of PLA vessels extends well beyond waters off Taiwan, strongly suggesting Beijing is readying for new exercises which threaten other regional US allies as well, such as the Philippines.

According to details in CNN:

An "astonishing” number of Chinese vessels have been deployed at a scale that “could block external forces,” Lt. Gen. Hsieh Jih-Sheng, deputy chief of the General Staff for Intelligence, said at a Taiwan Defense Ministry briefing Tuesday.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) naval deployment was not only targeting Taiwan, Hsieh said, adding that the geographic spread stretched into waters past the first island chain. The strategically significant chain of islands encompasses Japan, Taiwan, parts of the Philippines and Indonesia, and as long been a key plank in the US maintaining its position as the dominant power in the Pacific.

Gen. Hsieh further said in the statement, "The PLA’s recent activities not only exerted military pressure on Taiwan. Its naval forces, specifically, have significantly raised its posture around Taiwan and the Western Pacific."

But it remains that the PLA military has yet to announce any formal drills as of Tuesday evening (local time), but Taipei expects it.

All of this appears retaliation and a pressure campaign by Beijing for Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's alleged "separatist" activities. China has condemned Lai's unofficial visits to Hawaii and Guam during a South Pacific tour which went on all last week.

#China’s military appears to be up to something around #Taiwan - AP

"China’s navy is creating two walls — one at Taiwan’s perimeter and another outside the first island chain, which extends south from Japan and through Taiwan to the Philippines," Lt. Gen. Hsieh Jih-sheng said.… pic.twitter.com/xDZUKol4mI

— Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense (@IndoPac_Info) December 10, 2024

It was his first such visit to the United States since he entered office, and Beijing has vowed "strong countermeasures" in the wake of the trip. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council repeatedly slammed the "blatant provocations" from Beijing which harm regional peace and stability, while China has pointed to Taiwan and Washington provocations. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/11/2024 - 06:55

Here's Who Owns US Debt

U.S. gross debt increased from $34.4 trillion at the end of 2023 to $36.1 trillion as of December 2024, with some experts calling it unsustainable.

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti brings a breakdown of U.S. debt composition, categorized by domestic and foreign investors as well as intragovernmental holdings.

The data is sourced from the U.S. Department of the Treasury by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, as of year-end for 2023.

Key Data on U.S. Debt

The U.S. national debt increases when the federal government spends more than it collects through taxes and other revenue streams.

When government spending exceeds tax revenue, a budget deficit occurs. To cover the shortfall, the U.S. Treasury issues Treasury bills, notes, and bonds. The national debt is the cumulative total of the federal government’s budget deficits, adjusted for any surpluses.

Of the $34.4 trillion in gross debt in 2023, $27.3 trillion (79%) was public debt borrowed from domestic and foreign investors, while $7.0 trillion (21%) was intragovernmental debt, reflecting internal government transactions.

The Federal Reserve System was the largest domestic holder of U.S. public debt, with holdings of $5.24 trillion.

Debt held by the public represents the amount borrowed by the U.S. Treasury from external lenders via financial markets to fund government operations. It is considered a critical measure of debt because it directly impacts the government’s ability to manage economic crises and can influence economic stability.

As of December 2023, debt held by the public equaled 97% of the U.S. GDP.

Debt Under Trump

With the upcoming administration change in January, President-elect Donald Trump has appointed billionaire Elon Musk and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy to head the newly established Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The department aims to identify and eliminate wasteful spending, with Musk claiming it could cut $2 trillion in government “waste,” potentially reducing the national debt or curbing expenditures.

If you enjoyed this post, make sure to check this graphic on which foreign countries own the most U.S. debt.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/11/2024 - 05:45

World Coal Demand And Exports Set For New Record High In 2024

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

The world’s consumption and exports of thermal coal are expected to rise this year from 2023 to hit fresh record-highs, according to export and power generation data cited by Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire.

Coal-fired electricity generation has increased so far this year by 2% compared to 2023, to hit new highs as power demand in emerging markets grows. Coal power emissions are also set to rise to a record high in 2024, according to data from energy think tank Ember quoted by Maguire.

Moreover, global exports of thermal coal – the type used in coal power plants – have also climbed this year, due to rising demand in India and China in particular.

The world’s thermal coal exports rose by 9 million metric tons between January and November 2024 compared to the same period of last year, per vessel-tracking data by commodity analysts at Kpler.

Indonesia, the largest coal exporter in the world, is set to ship more than 500 million tons of coal this year, for the first time ever, according to Kpler’s estimates cited by Reuters’s Maguire.

Last year, coal demand grew by 2.6% to hit an all-time high, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a July overview of the coal markets. Back then, the agency expected coal demand for 2024 to remain broadly flat compared to 2023.

However, demand in China and India has continued to grow.

Although the share of coal in China’s electricity generation has been declining in recent years with the renewables boom, Chinese coal power generation and demand remains strong.

Coal still accounts for about 60% of China’s power generation, despite a surge in hydropower earlier this year after abundant rainfall, which reduced the share of coal in the country’s energy mix during the summer.

But hydropower saw a sharp decline in September, which boosted the use of thermal coal for power generation amid surging power demand in the world’s second-largest economy.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/11/2024 - 05:00

Deutsche Bank Sees Volkswagen, BMW, Tesla, BYD As Standout Picks For 2025

Deutsche Bank released a new note on coming 2025 themes, trends and top picks in the automotive industry this week. Among the standouts from the note were:

• Volkswagen (Europe): Volkswagen is addressing cost inefficiencies with bold restructuring efforts, such as plant closures and a canceled labor agreement in Germany. Its new product launches, particularly in premium brands Audi and Porsche, position it to have the youngest portfolio by year-end 2025, enhancing competitiveness.

• BMW (Europe): BMW leads German automakers in Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) adoption, helping it comply with EU CO2 regulations. Additionally, its cash return potential, with €2 billion allocated for share buybacks and plans for more, provides shareholder value.

• Michelin (Europe): Despite recent challenges, Michelin is expected to outperform in 2025 due to a recovery in volume growth, strong cash generation, and lower risk exposure compared to other European automotive companies.

• Pirelli (Europe): Pirelli continues to deliver earnings and margin growth, despite risks such as tariffs and potential Chinese stakeholder exits. Its strategic focus on high-value-added (HVA) volumes safeguards financial performance.

• Tesla (United States): Tesla is at the forefront of autonomous driving technology and cost-efficient BEV production. Its advancements in robotaxi technology and strong compute resources give it a competitive edge that is hard to replicate.

• BYD (China, 1H 2025): BYD excels in cost leadership and exposure to the fast-growing low-price vehicle segment in China. It is well-positioned to benefit from government incentives and increased domestic and export demand.

In the note, the bank concludes that the automotive sector is set for another challenging year in 2025, with continued volatility, pricing pressures, and regional disparities in demand. While the industry grapples with muted growth in Europe and North America, there are pockets of opportunity driven by electrification, restructuring efforts, and innovative advancements in autonomous driving technology.

In Europe, companies like Volkswagen and BMW are well-positioned to weather the storm. Volkswagen is aggressively restructuring to address high labor costs, a move that includes plant closures in Germany, while also leading in portfolio renewal with new launches across its mass-market and premium segments. BMW, benefiting from its robust Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) portfolio, is poised to meet stringent EU CO2 regulations and avoid fines. Pricing in the region is expected to decline slightly but remain relatively stable as OEMs resist aggressive incentives.

The U.S. automotive landscape faces uncertainties tied to the new administration’s policies on emissions and EV incentives. Tesla continues to dominate the autonomous driving space, leveraging its scale and technological edge to outpace competitors. Pricing in the U.S. is also under pressure, with GM maintaining disciplined inventory management to mitigate declines, while other OEMs like Ford face challenges in balancing inventory and demand. Companies such as Autoliv and Dana are positioned to capitalize on opportunities in safety systems and cost-efficient restructuring, respectively.

China presents a contrasting narrative, with double-digit growth expected in passenger vehicle volumes driven by government incentives and local OEMs like BYD and Geely gaining market share. Electrification in China remains a strong growth driver, particularly in the BEV segment, though volumes are still below initial forecasts due to policy adjustments. Exports from Chinese automakers are also expected to grow by 12% in 2025, supported by new overseas plants, expanded product portfolios, and entry into new markets.

Across the industry, electrification continues to be a pivotal theme. Europe leads in BEV adoption, fueled by tightening CO2 regulations, while China’s growth is underpinned by strong government support. In the U.S., electrification momentum is closely tied to federal policies, with potential shifts in EV incentives under the new administration. However, high electrification costs and the risk of regulatory fines in Europe remain challenges for profitability.

Pricing pressures are expected to persist across all regions. In the U.S., high inventory levels and muted demand are driving slight declines in new car pricing, while in Europe, pricing is softening as demand stabilizes. The used car market, which saw a surge during the pandemic, offers limited support as prices normalize. In China, competitive dynamics continue to exert downward pressure on prices, especially in the low-cost vehicle segment.

Restructuring emerges as a critical theme, particularly in Europe. OEMs are focusing on cost-cutting measures to address declining demand and high operational costs. Volkswagen’s aggressive restructuring plan is an example of the industry’s efforts to realign capacities and improve competitiveness. Such measures are expected to play a significant role in reshaping the automotive landscape in 2025.

Amid these challenges, certain companies stand out. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving and robotaxi advancements, setting a high bar for competitors. Volkswagen and BMW are poised for growth through portfolio renewal and emissions compliance, while BYD and Geely dominate the low-cost vehicle segment in China. Michelin and Pirelli remain strong players in the tire market, balancing challenges with consistent cash flow and innovative strategies.

The note concludes that while 2025 promises to be another volatile year, selective investments in OEMs with strong balance sheets, innovative electrification strategies, and effective restructuring plans offer significant upside potential. Regional dynamics, policy shifts, and advancements in technology will play pivotal roles in shaping the future of the automotive industry.

The full note can be found by premium subscribers in the in the usual place. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/11/2024 - 04:15

East Vs. West: A Global Dollar Dump Is Inevitable And The US Must Prepare

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

In October of 2024, Russia hosted the annual BRICS Summit in the city of Kazan with the intent to show unity among developing nations and general eastern interests. The Kremlin, a target of severe NATO sanctions since the start of the war in Ukraine, has been effective in solidifying economic guarantees from BRICS partners and circumventing western economic controls.

Despite being removed from the SWIFT banking network and being cut off from a large percentage of global trade, Russia has continued to garner solid export revenues. We certainly aren’t seeing the total collapse of the Russian economy that so many media “experts” predicted.  The reason? Russia is resource rich and in an inflationary environment countries that are heavy in commodities sold at lower prices are always sought after. The BRICS event this year was a reminder that the west’s financial influence is in decline.

At that same meeting, Putin called for an alternative international payment system and passed around a mock-up of what he called a BRICS “bank note”. The paper note was purely symbolic, but it’s presence at the summit started an uproar within the establishment media. Pundits were quick to “fact check” the story and declare that this was not a real unified currency announcement. As far as I know, no one said it was. What we did say, however, is that a real multilateral currency system cutting out the dollar is MUCH CLOSER than most people realize.

Putin flashed that banknote around because this is something the BRICS have been working on for well over a decade. Those cynics that think such a thing is impossible are living in denial, or, they have an agenda to peddle.

Donald Trump in particular seems to understand quite well that the BRICS currency concept is not a bluff or a joke. In a recent social media post, Trump threatened to increase tariffs for any nation that tries to diminish or replace the dollar’s world reserve status (the dollar is the premier currency used in the vast majority of international transactions). Putin responded with a warning that Trump’s efforts to reinforce the dollar would backfire.

Overall, Putin is right. Any move to force the dollar onto developing nations as a reserve currency will only result in them dumping it faster. Tariffs act as leverage for short term adjustments to trade imbalances, but they aren’t going to be effective in preventing other countries from using alternative currencies.

The problem with the dollar reserve system is its foundation. Officially established with the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944 as we neared the end of WWII, the unspoken deal underlying the dollar was that the US would get the economic benefits of reserve status, but in exchange America would be required to carry the bulk of military defense obligations for allies around the globe.

Five years later in 1949 NATO would be founded, the dollar was made the common currency denominator for all members and the US would end up paying 60% or more of all funding for the alliance for decades to come. The economic trade off was established – The US dollar gets the advantages of reserve status and the rest of the western world gets military protection from the US.

However, as far as eastern nations and the BRICS are concerned today, NATO is not an ally. There’s no agreement or unspoken doctrine which convinces the developing nations to maintain the dollar’s reserve status; only precarious import/export arrangements that can fall apart quickly if conflict arises.

And let’s be honest, the sparks of wider conflict are everywhere. At my current count, there are at least three regional proxy wars going on simultaneously that have the potential to kick off WWIII – Ukraine, Israel and Syria. Then there’s Taiwan, North Korea, and Georgia (Eastern Europe); regions that are constantly on the verge of going hot.

On top of that, there’s the steady decline of Western Europe, with Germany and France now in governmental limbo, not to mention the UK turning into an Orwellian police state. Americans are so insulated from the global crisis that’s unfolding that I worry millions will be caught completely off guard when it finally arrives on our doorstep.

To be sure, the US has its share of instability. The stagflation crisis is in its third year (officially) and prices don’t look like they will be coming down on most necessities any time soon. The illegal immigration crisis is about to come to a crescendo and we’re all waiting to see if the Trump Administration follows through on his promise of mass deportations. Then there’s the incredible debt crisis – Our government has added $6 trillion to the national debt in the past two years alone. We are creating over $1 trillion in new debt every 3-4 months and our debt to GDP ratio is 124%. This is unsustainable.

That said, we haven’t experienced any catastrophic economic disruptions yet. The loss of the dollar’s reserve status would bring historically devastating consequences, at least in the short term, and that’s only if our country devises a plan to weather the storm.

Conflicts between east and west are only going to grow given the existing conditions, and the calls for a dollar alternative are going to continue. There’s not much Trump can do about that. We also have to keep in mind that there are globalist institutions like the IMF and BIS that are, as I write this, getting ready to introduce CBDCs and cashless systems that would limit the dollar’s global influence by default.

When globalists pontificated endlessly about a “Great Reset” during the pandemic era, what they were talking about was primarily an economic reset and a currency reset. Klaus Schwab of the WEF stated ‘Now is the time for a great reset of capitalism’, and this event was supposed to precede a global shift into a cashless system.

There can’t be a global currency reset without the dollar being demoted. There can’t be a reset without a reversal of the old Bretton Woods system. They know it, and they aren’t going to warn the rest of the public about the consequences.

Everything is working against the dollar right now, and there’s a lot of people out there that question if it’s even worth saving. The Federal Reserve has been the source of considerable corruption within our government and I have often referred to central bankers as economic suicide bombers. But, the dollar is all we have until a tangible safety net can be established.

Instead of focusing on trying to intimidate the BRICS into sticking with the dollar, Trump should be drafting a plan to backstop our currency system with hard commodities to prevent greater inflation and ensuring that the US has the capacity to manufacture all our necessities domestically.

There is a chance this could be done under Trump; there was zero chance it would have been done under Kamala Harris. So, at least there’s hope.

At bottom, it’s impossible to keep the dollar in a position of global dominance when every element of geopolitics is working against it and the very globalist organizations that helped create the Bretton Woods system are now trying to dismantle it. It’s time to localize, build redundancies and get ready for the greater crisis at hand., because one way or another difficult changes are coming.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Tue, 12/10/2024 - 23:25

Here's The Best Time To Buy A Christmas Tree

Website Finder.com cited data from the National Christmas Tree Association showing that 43% of American households are expected to purchase a real tree this holiday season, with the average tree costing around $79.31—around $4 more than in 2023.

2020 marked a critical point in which artificial tree sales surpassed real tree sales for the first time. 

Separately, data from point-of-sale company Square shows that Christmas tree prices typically peak and are most expensive immediately after Black Friday and during the first half of December. Square noted that 50% deals occur in the days leading up to Christmas. 

Square Research Lead Ara Kharazian wrote in a note: "The cheapest time to buy a Christmas tree is right before Christmas. The best time is whichever day maximizes joy in your household."

Over the past decade, Christmas tree supplies have been squeezed by a supplier bust originating back to the Global Financial Crisis, compounded by continued adverse weather conditions in the country's top tree-growing regions.

"The root of the tight supply issue goes back to 2008 when an oversupply led growers to scale back planting," Jill Sidebottom, a National Christmas Tree Association spokesperson, told CBS MoneyWatch.

Sidebottom added that adverse weather conditions, including the 2021 heat dome that destroyed trees across the Pacific Northwest, have exacerbated supply constraints in recent years.

Meanwhile, PNC Bank's annual Christmas Price Index, which calculates the cost of "True Love's" gifts from the classic holiday carol The Twelve Days of Christmas, rose by 5.4% compared to last year.

Data from Bankrate shows persistent inflation and high interest rates are expected to weigh on low/mid-tier consumers this holiday season. According to the financial services company, about one-third of holiday shoppers plan to spend less this year than last year.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/10/2024 - 23:00

US Life Expectancy Ranking Will Drop To 66th by 2050, Study Says

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The United States is set to fall in worldwide life expectancy ranking by mid-century, with widespread obesity adversely affecting people’s health, according to a recent study.

File photo of an obese person. Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images

The peer-reviewed study, published in The Lancet on Dec. 7, forecasted the life expectancy for Americans between 2022 and 2050 after taking into account the effect of more than 350 diseases and injuries.

Study authors said overall life expectancy is projected to increase from 78.3 years in 2022 to 79.9 years in 2035, and to 80.4 years in 2050. The study said the increase “is forecasted to be modest compared with that in other countries around the world.”

As a result, the United States’ global rank in terms of life expectancy is projected to decline from 49 in 2022 to 66 in 2050 among 204 nations and territories. In addition, ranking in terms of health-adjusted life expectancy, which estimates the average number of years a person lives in good health, is projected to fall from 80 to 108.

Despite the slight increase in life expectancy, health improvements are expected to slow down in the nation as a result of obesity issues, according to professor Christopher J.L. Murray, co-senior author of the study and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

Rising obesity rates are a “serious risk factor to many chronic diseases and forecasted to leap to levels never before seen,” he said a Dec. 5 statement from the institute.

“The rise in obesity and overweight rates in the U.S., with IHME forecasting over 260 million people affected by 2050, signals a public health crisis of unimaginable scale,” he added.

Researchers estimated that if authorities succeed in eliminating risk factors such as obesity, high blood pressure, and high blood sugar by 2050, the United States will succeed in preventing the deaths of 12.4 million people.

Life expectancy ranking of American females is forecast to drop from 51 in 2022 to 74 in 2050. For men, the ranking is expected to fall from 51 to 65.

“These lower rankings put the U.S. below nearly all high-income and some middle-income countries,” the institute said.

Researchers pointed out that the findings “highlight the alarming trajectory of health challenges in the USA, which, if left unaddressed, could lead to a reversal of the health progress made over the past three decades for some US states and a decline in global health standing for all states.”

Between 1990 and 2021, mortality rates for several leading causes of death, such as stroke, cancer, and ischemic heart disease, declined nationwide, which caused life expectancy to improve during those three decades.

The study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Chronic Obesity

The study’s categorization of excess weight as a key risk factor to good health comes as the United States is facing an obesity crisis.

More than two in five American adults are obese, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which estimates that more than 100 million Americans are obese and more than 22 million have severe obesity.

Obesity rates have skyrocketed over the past decades, jumping from 30.5 percent in 1999–2000 to nearly 42 percent during 2017–2020, with rates of severe obesity almost doubling.

“Many adults with obesity have other serious chronic diseases. For example, 58 percent of U.S. adults with obesity have high blood pressure, a risk factor for heart disease. Also, approximately 23 percent of U.S. adults with obesity have diabetes,” the agency says.

During a hearing in December 2023, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) highlighted the issue of obesity among children, pointing out the link between having excess weight and getting diagnosed with type 2 diabetes.

The senator called for banning the advertising of junk food targeting children, saying that such a move could aid in reducing obesity rates among kids.

“For decades, we have allowed large corporations in the food and beverage industry to entice children to eat foods loaded with sugar, salt, and saturated fat,“ he said. ”This situation has led to an addiction crisis, with ultra-processed foods being as addictive as alcohol and cigarettes.”

In August, former President Donald Trump, now the president-elect, said that he plans on setting up a panel of experts to investigate the reasons for surging childhood health issues, including obesity.

In a video from September, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s nominee to head the Department of Health and Human Services, said chemicals in the soil and ultra-processed foods as contributing factors to the country’s obesity situation.

The United States’ food supply is “loaded with high fructose corn syrup and seed oils and hundreds of artificial additives and flavors and processed carbohydrates that don’t exist in nature and that are banned in other countries,” Kennedy said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/10/2024 - 21:45

US Cattle Crisis Worsens As Nation's Herd Size Continues Alarming Side Into Abyss

America's beef cow inventory has steadily declined over the last half-decade, reaching 64-year lows and signaling a deepening crisis across the cattle industry. As the cattle crisis worsens, consumers should brace for higher ground beef prices.

The shrinking beef supply has pushed the nation's herd size to its smallest level since 1961. With severe droughts, high interest rates, costly feed prices, sliding farm income, surging farm debt, and a shifting consumer preference toward cheaper chicken, struggling ranchers have been culling heifers, preventing any meaningful recovery in the number of calves necessary to expand the nation's herds.

As Bloomberg reports, the nation's cattle crisis is set to worsen with new pressures: first, President-elect Trump's anticipated tariff war 2.0, which is expected to tighten domestic beef supplies, and second, immigration reform.

"All of the things he is talking about have potentially negative consequences more so than anything positive," Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University, told Bloomberg, adding, "Our fate's pretty well determined in the cattle industry in the U.S. for the next two to four years" – and it's not looking good."

In February, the United States Department of Agriculture projected that the cattle herd could begin rebuilding by 2025. However, that timeline has since shifted to 2027. The reason is primarily because of high interest rates and poor pasture conditions in the Midwest. 

"Even as the beef industry has experienced periods of growth over the past decades, the animal count has dropped almost 40% since a peak in 1975. During the current downcycle, which started in 2020, the herd has been shrinking at the fastest pace since the big farm crisis of the 1980s," Bloomberg noted.

If Trump introduces new tariffs, it could disrupt the flow of imported beef, further tightening domestic supplies. However, as Bill Bullard, CEO of R-CALF USA—a group representing cow-calf producers nationwide—explained, this move will drive up beef prices while encouraging investment in rebuilding the nation's cattle herd. 

Bullard said, "Tariffs will provide our industry an opportunity to invest in expansion and to begin rebuilding the herd that has been shrinking at an alarming rate," adding, "Over the long term, consumers are going to be better served because we will no longer have such a dependency on imported products."

America's beef supply relies heavily on small producers raising calves, but with herd levels at half-century lows—combined with new factors like tariffs and immigration reform that could drive prices even higher—consumers need to recognize that food inflation will likely remain sticky through the decade's end.

Earlier this year, Tyson Foods CEO Donnie King told the BMO Global Farm to Market Conference that he wasn't even sure when the nation's collapsing herd size would reverse.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/10/2024 - 21:20

NASA Finds Underground 'City' Hidden 100 Feet Below Icy Surface

Via The Mind Unleashed,

In the vast, icy expanses of Greenland, a place more synonymous with desolate, arctic landscapes than with the shadows of human history, NASA scientists have stumbled upon an extraordinary anomaly. Buried beneath a hundred feet of ice lies a remnant of a bygone era, originally hidden from the world above and shrouded in Cold War secrecy.

What was initially just another radar scan over the frosty tundra turned into a discovery of an underground “city,” a relic of geopolitical strategies from a tension-filled past. This isn’t a tale of ancient civilizations, but rather a hidden chapter of recent history, now frozen in time, waiting to be uncovered. What secrets does this icy fortress hold?

The Discovery of Camp Century

In a groundbreaking exploration, NASA’s radar technology unveiled an extraordinary find beneath Greenland’s ice—a secret Cold War base known as Camp Century or “the city under the ice.” This discovery, made in April 2024 during a flight testing new radar equipment, revealed intricate underground structures that have not been seen so vividly until now.

While NASA scientists were testing the Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) mounted on a Gulfstream III aircraft, they captured a surprising image. Alex Gardner, a cryospheric scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, noted, “We were looking for the bed of the ice and out pops Camp Century. We didn’t know what it was at first.”​ This advanced radar system is not your typical radar; it’s designed to give a more dimensional view of what lies beneath the ice by not only looking downward but also to the sides.

The UAVSAR technology has proven pivotal in this discovery. It allowed the team to see the underground city in unprecedented detail, mapping out the camp’s layout against historical blueprints and revealing structures that conventional radar had missed. This novel imaging technique represents a significant leap in ice-penetrating radar technology, offering new ways to understand the geological and environmental history of icy regions​.

Photo from NASA Earth Observatory

The rediscovery of Camp Century is not just a historical curiosity but also provides crucial data for understanding ice sheet dynamics and the potential environmental impact of the materials left behind. As the climate changes, the ice sheets’ response is a vital area of study, with UAVSAR contributing to predictions about sea levels and ice stability​.

History of Camp Century

Camp Century, famously known as the “City Under the Ice,” was initially presented to the public as a pioneering Arctic research station. However, its true purpose was far more clandestine. Established in 1959 by the United States Army Corps of Engineers, this secretive base was part of “Project Iceworm,” intended to test the feasibility of deploying nuclear missiles from beneath Greenland’s vast ice sheet directly against the Soviet Union.

On the surface, Camp Century featured accommodations and amenities that supported scientific research and the daily needs of its inhabitants, including laboratories, a library, and living quarters. This facade supported its cover story as a hub for polar research, where significant scientific firsts occurred, such as drilling the first ice cores to provide data on the Earth’s past climate​.

Beneath its scientific guise, the camp’s primary objective was far more militaristic. The U.S. planned to create a network of tunnels capable of housing and launching “Iceman” ballistic missiles. These facilities were meant to be part of a broader strategy to ensure the U.S. could respond to Soviet actions during the Cold War. The project was ambitious, aiming to house up to 600 nuclear missiles under the guise of Arctic scientific endeavors​.

The base was constructed deep within the ice, with tunnels extending over several miles. Despite the innovative approach to Cold War military strategy, the project faced insurmountable challenges. The ice’s dynamic nature caused structural instabilities within the tunnels, leading to frequent maintenance issues and eventual abandonment of the missile plan. The shifting ice also posed significant risks to the structural integrity of the facility, leading to its decommission in 1967​.

In the decades following its closure, concerns have grown over the environmental impact of the waste left behind, including low-level radioactive waste from the camp’s nuclear reactor. Studies suggest that as the climate warms and the ice melts, these contaminants could be released into the environment, posing new risks to the ecosystem​.

Technological and Engineering Features of Camp Century

The construction of Camp Century was a remarkable feat of engineering, designed to test the feasibility of establishing military facilities under the harsh conditions of the Greenland Ice Cap. This project was not only ambitious but also showcased a range of innovative construction techniques that have informed cold region engineering practices to this day.

Camp Century was constructed using a “cut-and-cover” method where trenches were dug into the ice and then covered with arched steel structures. This method was crucial in creating the protective tunnels that formed the main structure of the base. The entire facility was then insulated to protect against the extreme cold and to ensure that the heat generated within the base did not cause the surrounding ice to melt​.

To support its designation as a self-sustaining underground city, Camp Century included living quarters, a kitchen, a hospital, and even a movie theater, all powered by a groundbreaking portable nuclear reactor, the PM-2A. This reactor was a critical component of the base, providing a reliable power source in an environment where traditional fuel supplies would be logistically challenging to maintain​.

The base’s design and construction required innovative solutions to numerous challenges, such as the structural integrity of buildings under ice and the management of thermal effects caused by the heat generated within the base. These innovations have left a lasting impact on polar construction techniques and have been studied for their potential applications in other remote and harsh environments​.

Moreover, the data and experience gained from the construction and operation of Camp Century have been invaluable in the development of future designs for ice-cap camps. This project demonstrated that subsurface ice-cap camps are both feasible and practical, and that nuclear power can significantly reduce the logistical burdens of supporting isolated, remote military facilities​.

Secrets Uncovered

The unveiling of Camp Century’s true purpose marked a significant chapter in Cold War history. For years, the world believed that Camp Century was solely a scientific research station focusing on Arctic studies and ice core sampling. In reality, it was a cover for a highly classified military operation known as Project Iceworm.

Initially portrayed as a peaceful research facility, Camp Century was publicly celebrated as a model of polar innovation and technological achievement. The facility was featured in documentaries and news articles, praising its advanced infrastructure and the potential scientific advancements it could bring​.

The truth about Camp Century came to light in 1997 when the Danish Parliament published documents revealing that the base was intended to serve as an underground launch site for nuclear missiles targeted at the Soviet Union. This disclosure came as a shock to the international community, especially since Denmark had been assured that the operations at Camp Century were purely scientific​.

This revelation not only strained U.S.-Danish relations but also raised significant ethical and legal questions about the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Greenland. The Danish government expressed deep concerns, as they had not consented to the militarization of their territory, which they were led to believe was being used for benign scientific purposes.

The declassification of Project Iceworm’s objectives prompted a broader discussion about the environmental impact of the military base, particularly concerning the nuclear reactor used to power the camp. Concerns were raised about the potential release of radioactive materials stored under the ice, which could emerge due to the accelerating ice melt caused by global warming​.

Camp Century’s Effect on the Environment

The thawing of Greenland’s ice sheet is poised to reveal the remnants of Camp Century, including hazardous materials such as low-level radioactive waste and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), which are known carcinogens. This potential exposure is a significant environmental threat, as the melting ice could release these contaminants into the surrounding ecosystem and beyond​.

As the ice melts, estimated projections suggest that by as early as 2090, the base could become exposed, unveiling not only the physical structure but also the environmental hazards contained within. This includes an estimated 9,200 tons of physical materials, 53,000 gallons of diesel fuel, and other toxic wastes such as PCBs, which have long-term persistence in the environment and can bioaccumulate in wildlife and humans​.

The exposure of these contaminants poses not only environmental risks but also political and diplomatic challenges. The cleanup and management of this waste will require coordinated international efforts, potentially straining relationships between the United States, Denmark, and Greenland. The situation underscores the broader impacts of climate change, where thawing ice is not just a physical change but a catalyst for emerging political conflicts over accountability and environmental stewardship​.

Echoes from the Ice: Reflecting on Camp Century’s Legacy

The rediscovery and impending exposure of Camp Century not only unearths a relic of the Cold War but also reminds us of the lasting environmental impacts of human endeavors. This hidden base, once a symbol of military ingenuity, now poses significant environmental risks as the consequences of its hazardous wastes are set to re-emerge due to the warming climate. The challenges ahead are not only technical or environmental but also deeply political, involving negotiations and responsibilities that span across nations and generations.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/10/2024 - 20:55

​​​​​​​Bean Mania: Arabica Coffee Hits New High, Cocoa Jumps To 7-Month High

Cash-strapped US consumers should be deeply concerned about rising food inflation. It's 'stickier' than ever as coffee and cocoa prices surge.

Arabica coffee futures in New York hit a record high on Tuesday, driven by ongoing fears of a global supply crunch. Prices surged nearly 5% during the session, reaching their highest level in data dating back to 1972. At that time, coffee prices soared due to the disastrous Black Frost, which devastated Brazilian yields.

"Concerns over Brazil's 2025-26 arabica crop grew this week," said Steve Pollard, an analyst at Marex Group, as quoted by Bloomberg.

Pollard added, "Recent crop tours point to production in the mid-30 million bags," which would result in yet another supply shortfall.

Major agricultural trader Volcafe Ltd. recently slashed Brazil's arabica production outlook due to severe drought conditions. The trader projected that South America would produce just 34.4 million bags of arabica coffee in the next growing season, down 11 million bags from the prior September estimate, according to Bloomberg.

Volcafe also forecasted a global coffee production shortfall of 8.5 million bags for the 2025-26 season, marking the fifth consecutive year of deficits.

"We are currently experiencing a strong fundamental phase in the coffee market, which we expect to sustain the elevated price levels," said Viktoria Kuszak, a research associate at Sucden Financial.

In the cocoa market, the most active contract in New York jumped to the highest level in seven months over West Africa's dismal production outlook, yet another crop experiencing dwindling global supplies.

The most-active cocoa contract has jumped 58% to $10,500 per metric ton since late October, the highest since June. This comes as adverse weather dents supplies from top growers in Ivory Coast and Ghana.

"The outlook for the mid-crops have deteriorated in the past weeks," said Steve Wateridge, head of research at TRS by Expana, adding, "The weather conditions in next three months will determine whether we see further deterioration."

Broad food price trends via the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' Food Price Index, which tracks international prices of a basket of globally traded foods, show that prices have alarmingly re-accelerated this year. 

Back to the cocoa market: The new surge in bean prices certainly sits well with famed commodity trader Pierre Andurand's bullish thesis earlier this year about worsening global supplies.

The big takeaway is that food inflation is very sticky despite the government saying otherwise.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/10/2024 - 20:30

Taliban & Hamas 'Congratulate' Syrian People & Julani After Assad Fall

The hardline and extremist Islamic groups Hamas and the Taliban have been among the first regional entities to offer congratulations to the Islamist-led 'rebels' and the Syrian people after the overthrow of the government of President Bashar al-Assad.

Afghanistan's Taliban government announced the following on Sunday soon after al-Qaeda spinoff Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) gained control of the presidential palace and government ministries and state media stations in Damascus:

"We express hope that the process of power transition be carried out in a manner aligned with the aspirations of the Syrian people, paving path for the establishment of an independent and service-oriented Islamic government," a foreign ministry statement said, calling for Syria to be able to "move forward free from external interference".

AFP/Getty Images

Hamas in Gaza had a similar message, praising the Syrian people for achieving their "aspirations for freedom and justice" after the Syrian Army collapsed and Assad fled the country.

In Hamas' first public statement on the Syria crisis, the group said: "We stand strongly with the great people of Syria […] and respect the will, the independence and the political choices of the people of Syria."

Hamas further expressed hope that post-Assad Syria will continue "its historical and pivotal role in supporting the Palestinian people."

The head of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Ziad Al-Nakhala, also issued a congratulations, offering similar words. All of the aforementioned groups are considered terrorists by Washington and many governments around the world.

But in the case of HTS which now rules Damascus and much of the major cities in Syria, Washington and London are reportedly mulling whether to drop the formal terror listing.

The Israeli government has issued a warning to HTS and the jihadist factions in Damascus, saying that they will go the way of Assad if they threaten Israel. IDF tanks are meanwhile just about 25km to the south of Damascus, after moving in the country ostensibly to secure a 'buffer zone'.

The groups now in control of Syria have an ideology no different than the Taliban's, and in many cases are even more extreme...

Taliban in Latakia today,they didn't enter Alawite villages,but they are in city coast. says: we "conquered" Levant for Islamic Sharia & defeat"polytheism"
طالبان باللاذقية
يمنع منعا باتا الالتزام بالبيانات الصادرة عن مشايخ الطايفة العلوية التي تدعو شعبنا العلوي الى تسليم السلاح pic.twitter.com/brY3NCHkyz

— AlawiteMuslimDefenceLeague (@AlawiteLeague) December 9, 2024

The head of HTS and new ruler of Damascus, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, had in his 'victory' speech from Umayyad Mosque praised the "heroic mujahideen". Julani said, "Today, Syria is purified, thanks to God almighty... Thanks to God almighty, then thanks to the heroic mujahideen." 

He and his fighters have long been on record as seeking to establish an 'Islamic State' and governance based on Sharia law. The Assad government had represented the last secular state in the Middle East, belonging to the Baath party.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/10/2024 - 19:40

China's Oil Demand Could Peak In 2025

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Oil demand in China, the world’s top crude importer, could peak as early as next year as the penetration of electric vehicles and LNG trucks is accelerating, state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) said on Tuesday.

At this time last year, CNPC expected a peak in oil demand coming to China by 2030.

Now, after a year of EVs and LNG-fueled trucks displacing some gasoline and diesel demand, respectively, the peak in China’s oil demand may occur five years earlier, in 2025, according to a report by CNPC economists carried by Bloomberg.

China’s oil demand growth has been slowing down due to weaker economic performance and a shift to electric vehicles and LNG-fueled trucks, oil industry executives said at the APPEC conference in Singapore in September.

Although some of the weakness is attributable to weaker economic performance, the shift toward EVs and LNG trucks is removing some road fuel demand permanently, analysts say.

China’s shift toward EVs will bring about domestic gasoline demand peaking either this year or next, according to Vitol Group’s CEO Russell Hardy.

“Gasoline is likely to peak this year or next year in China — not because nobody’s moving, but simply because the fleet is slowly changing towards electric vehicles,” the top executive of the world’s largest independent oil trader told Bloomberg in an interview in September.

Earlier this year, Vitol pushed back its expected timeline for global peak oil demand beyond 2030. Hardy said in February that a slower pace of the energy transition would push peak oil demand beyond 2030.

Nevertheless, Vitol sees weakening Chinese gasoline demand growth and diesel demand due to the electrification of transport and greater use of LNG for fueling trucks.

The rise of electric vehicles and the growing use of LNG in trucking have combined with slower-than-expected economic growth and activity to dent China’s oil demand growth and undermine earlier forecasts of global oil demand this year.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/10/2024 - 19:15

Americans Are Driving Their Older Cars Into The Ground

Americans, hit by inflation, higher interest rates, and supply-chain issues, are buying fewer new vehicles. The four-year average for annual sales is now 15.5 million, down from 17.7 million pre-pandemic, per the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The slowdown in new car sales might seem like good news for auto repair and parts companies, as older vehicles typically need more maintenance. Cars between four and eleven years old are in the "sweet spot" for repairs, yet signs show many Americans are cutting back on maintenance spending, according to the Wall Street Journal.

In May, tire retailer Monro reported a sharp decline in same-store sales, citing low- to middle-income consumers opting for cheaper, off-brand tires due to a glut of imports. Spending on services like brakes and shocks dropped even more.

Similarly, in September, Genuine Parts, owner of Napa auto-supply stores, experienced its worst single-day stock drop in decades, as retail sales fell significantly. CEO William Stengel blamed a "cautious end consumer deferring certain service and maintenance-related purchases."

The Journal wrote that Valvoline also reported weaker-than-expected sales recently, with its shares falling 9%. CEO Lori Flees noted that competitors, like tire service centers, were offering discounted oil changes to attract traffic, as many consumers delayed core services.

Carfax data shows 30% of vehicles in the U.S. are overdue for tire rotation and 19% for an oil change. This penny-pinching is widespread, with lower-income households trading down to cheaper options across industries. However, skimping on car maintenance could backfire.

A no-name tire costing $149.99 for a Ford Explorer comes with a 40,000-mile warranty, while a Goodyear option priced at $254 offers a 60,000-mile warranty and better safety.

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index is up 36% over five years, meaning maintenance investments now have a greater payoff. Still, iconic brands like Goodyear, which saw an 8.3% drop in tire sales in the Americas last quarter, face pressure from cheap imports that are gaining market share.

However, while motorists might trade down on parts, they still need local services—an advantage foreign manufacturers can't replicate.

The rise in EV sales, which require less maintenance, could impact auto parts stores and quick-lube chains, but it’s too recent to explain the current dip in spending, the report says. 

Pandemic-related shifts, like remote work and fewer miles driven since 2020, have also played a role, though driving levels have recently returned to 2019 norms.

Maintenance spending should stabilize as wear-and-tear returns to normal, even if the economy weakens. Historically, during downturns like the 2007-2009 recession, auto-parts retailers outperformed, with the three most retail-focused chains beating the S&P 500 by an average of 55 percentage points.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/10/2024 - 18:50

Landlords Increasingly Faced With Squatters, Sometimes With Deadly Consequences

Authored by Allan Stein via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A property manager in Phoenix says that dealing with itinerant “squatters” is one of the least pleasant parts of the real estate business.

Sometimes, you can’t control what happens, Calvin Favata with Your Holdings told The Epoch Times.

Rashaad Johnson, 29, had been renting a Your Holdings unit in South Phoenix for about two months and never had any trouble. But he was a “nice guy” who sometimes let squatters who lived in the vacant house across the street use his bathroom shower, Favata said.

A squatter removes belongings from an apartment as Maricopa County constables serve an eviction order in Phoenix, Ariz., on Sept. 30, 2020. John Moore/Getty Images

Favata said the shower situation soon “got out of hand,” and the company had to stop it.

“We even put padlocks and deadbolt [locks] on the bathroom doors so they couldn’t use it,” Favata said.

On Oct. 14, one of the squatters asked Johnson to use the shower, but when he refused, the man dressed in body armor allegedly told Johnson he was going to get his gun.

The man returned and killed Johnson, as well as wounding another tenant, a 32-year-old woman who was with him.

Phoenix police charged Refugio Jimenez, 49, with first-degree murder and burglary, including misconduct involving body armor, felony drug possession, and other crimes.

Favata said that Johnson’s senseless death was apparently “over a shower.”

“Since then, I’ve been here every day. We’ve got cameras back up,” Favata told The Epoch Times as he picked up tools from the back of his company truck outside the residence.

He said squatters have always been an issue and it’s hard to get rid of them. The situation has gotten worse in the Phoenix area in recent months.

(Top) Phoenix property manager Calvin Favata stands in front of the residence where one of his tenants was allegedly shot to death by a suspected squatter on Oct. 14, 2024. (Bottom) The house across the street where six alleged squatters were staying, on Nov. 2, 2024. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

“It’s pretty much any house you see that’s vacant. I thought it would be pretty much here and there,” Favata said.

“The one [property] we just bought, I had to do all the electrical and plumbing. They took all the copper out of the house.”

‘Snowbirds’ Targeted

Scott Blake is the constable for the Hassayampa District, one of the largest districts in Arizona’s Maricopa County. The district includes Phoenix.

Blake, like Favata, said he has seen more squatters in recent months. The situation appears driven by increasing homelessness, rent costs, and the snowbird phenomenon.

In the summer, thousands of snowbirds will leave their Arizona property for milder climates and return in the winter. Some seasonal residents return to find a total stranger living in their home and refusing to leave.

“There is a group of people in society that wants to live for as little as possible. If they can live for free, they do,” Blake said.

“It’s more frequent than it ever was. I see it once a week now. A lot of times, when the squatter is confronted by law enforcement, they will leave. It’s very rare that it goes as far as me.”

Blake said that the shooting in Phoenix shows what can happen when a landlord or tenant confronts an alleged squatter.

Recent incidents in other states have put the issue in the spotlight.

A man looks to get a view of an abandoned mansion covered in graffiti in the Hollywood Hills neighborhood of Los Angeles on Sept. 20, 2024. Neighbors said the house has been a refuge for squatters coming and going for over two years. Robyn Beck/ AFP/AFP via Getty Images

Two suspected squatters were arrested in March for allegedly killing an apartment resident in New York City and stuffing her body inside a duffel bag in Pennsylvania, according to news reports.

In October, Los Angeles police said that a homeowner in Van Nuys was attacked by a suspected squatter. The homeowner managed to pin down the trespasser when officers arrived.

Another alleged squatter was arrested in May for first and second-degree murder in the fatal shooting of two men hired to clean a house, local media reported.

Blake said that getting rid of a squatter is an often complicated matter, and each state has its version of “squatters rights.”

According to turbotenant.com, squatters in Arizona can make landlords’ lives extremely difficult once they’ve settled into a property.

“Even more anxiety-inducing, if a squatter stays on a property long enough and meets specific requirements, they might eventually be able to claim it as their own through a legal process called adverse possession,” the website stated.

A Notice to Vacate is issued to squatters to leave the property within a certain period to begin the eviction process under Arizona law. The next step is to file an eviction lawsuit in court to remove squatters.

Blake said that the entire process can take up to 21 days.

“In Arizona, we are blessed with one of the fastest eviction procedures in the United States,” he said. “In some states like California, the process can take as long as a year.”

An ‘Invasion’ of Squatters

The Apartment Association of Greater Los Angeles (AAGLA) reports that squatters have become a significant problem in California and across the United States.

“Thousands of properties across America are being invaded by squatters, who move in and live rent-free causing major damage, or in worse cases, injury or death to property owners—and there’s really no expedient, easy legal way for property owners or the police to remove them,” according to the organization’s website.

A newly erected fence blocks the front of a vacant home that Moms 4 Housing activists occupied during a monthslong protest, which ended in a court ordered eviction, in Oakland, Calif., on Jan. 28, 2020. Philip Pacheco/AFP via Getty Images

The group said the internet and dark forums have become a clearinghouse for advice on how to break into someone else’s home and “establish a right to be there.”

Blake said that, in some cases, a squatter may produce a fake lease to show police, who then treat squatting as a civil matter.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/10/2024 - 18:25

Here's How Manhattan DA Plans To Keep Trump Case Alive

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg - who had a Biden DOJ plant in his legal case against former President Donald Trump - is trying to ensure his hush money case doesn’t vanish into thin air as Trump prepares for his return to the White House.

According to court filings revealed Tuesday, Bragg’s office is fiercely opposed to dismissing the case outright but is open to pausing proceedings while Trump serves his second term as president.

The 82-page legal brief, prosecutors’ most detailed argument yet, stops short of recommending an explicit course of action but outlines several ways to keep the case alive. Among them: delaying sentencing until after Trump leaves office in 2029 or freezing the case while leaving the jury’s guilty verdict intact, The Hill reports.

"The extreme remedy of dismissing the indictment and vacating the jury verdict is not warranted in light of multiple alternative accommodations that would fully address the concerns raised by presidential immunity," wrote Assistant District Attorney Christopher Conroy.

The filing comes as Trump, now president-elect, wages a legal battle to quash the 34 felony charges stemming from hush money payments to an adult film star. Trump’s lawyers claim his status as president-elect grants him immunity and demands immediate dismissal.

Prosecutors, however, aren’t buying it. They argue that immunity doesn’t apply until Trump is inaugurated, meaning the case could theoretically proceed to sentencing before January 20, 2025 — a prospect Trump has vowed to fight tooth and nail.

Judge Juan Merchan, who presided over Trump’s trial, will now decide the case’s fate, with a ruling expected any day.

A Legal Tightrope

The DA’s office acknowledged the complications of prosecuting a sitting president but stopped short of saying the case should be completely shelved.

Trump was convicted by a Manhattan Jury 'of his peers' on 34 counts of falsifying business records, however his reelection to the highest office in the land has put a damper on prosecutors' plans.

Sentencing was initially scheduled for last month, only to be postponed indefinitely by Judge Merchan, making it increasingly unlikely Trump will face punishment anytime soon.

That would leave open the possibility that Trump could still proceed to sentencing in 2029, after he leaves office.

Alternatively, state prosecutors said the judge could terminate the case without tossing Trump’s conviction, noting a jury verdict removed the presumption of innocence, he was never sentenced and his conviction was “neither affirmed nor reversed” on appeal because of presidential immunity. -The Hill

Trump’s legal team is crying foul, claiming the prosecution disrupts his transition efforts and his ability to govern effectively. "Wrongly continuing proceedings in this failed lawfare case disrupts President Trump’s transition efforts and his preparations to wield the full Article II executive power authorized by the Constitution pursuant to the overwhelming national mandate granted to him by the American people on November 5, 2024," Trump's attorneys fumed in a recent filing.

Prosecutors hit back, accusing Trump of using delay tactics to muddy the waters. “Having filed those motions to dismiss and then sought repeated adjournments of sentencing to permit their determination by this Court, it is particularly brazen for defendant to argue that the Supremacy Clause bars the Court from taking any action on the motions defendant himself filed,” Conroy wrote.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/10/2024 - 18:00

Hurricane Helene Recovery In North Carolina Town Fueled By Devoted Locals

Authored by Jeff Louderback via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Nestled in the mountains of Yancey County in western North Carolina, Burnsville looks like a town that might feature in a Norman Rockwell painting or a Hallmark Christmas movie.

NuWray Hotel owners Amanda Keith, and her husband James Keith, provided meals to residents and volunteers in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, in Burnsville, N.C., on Nov. 30 ,2024. Jeff Louderback/The Epoch Times

Even before Thanksgiving, the town square was decorated for Christmas. Antique shops, cafes, and coffee houses dot Main Street, bustling with activity. On the surface, it appears to be a typical holiday season, but all is not as it seems. Two months after Hurricane Helene struck the region, Burnsville and Yancey County are still on a long path to recovery.

Crystal Capps, a real estate agent whose family has lived in Yancey County for several generations, said immediate and long-term assistance is essential for ensuring locals’ safety and enabling them to remain in the region.

“There is a sense of urgency. Winter weather is here. People are tough in these mountains, but it’s cold— too cold for people to be sleeping in tents and in their cars,” Capps told The Epoch Times. “I saw houses floating down the river when Helene hit. I’ll never forget that. For those who survived but are displaced, they need help.”

Capps is one of several Burnsville natives, including many friends from Mountain Heritage High School, who serve on the board of the Appalachian Disaster Coalition.

“We have a lot of work to do, but we have hope, and we are doing all we can to give hope to people who are struggling,” she said.

Bradley Honeycutt was born and raised in Yancey County. His parents live on a 48-acre mountainside property and have cattle and horses.

Honeycutt helped start the Appalachian Disaster Coalition just days after the storm. He was born and raised here and graduated in 2006 from Mountain Heritage High School.

Helene made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region on Sept. 26 as a Category 4 hurricane. It left a swath of destruction throughout the Southeast extending to western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Raging floodwaters and landslides from Hurricane Helene reached western North Carolina on Sept. 27, devastating urban and rural communities and severely damaging roads, homes, and power sources.

Just before Helene hit, storms drenched Asheville and surrounding western North Carolina towns when a weather front stalled over the Appalachian Mountains. Some areas received more than a foot of rain, saturating the land before Helene arrived.

Some roads remain only partially repaired in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, in Yancey County, N.C., on Nov. 30, 2024. Jeff Louderback/The Epoch Times

Hundreds of roads were blocked or completely washed away, requiring rescue crews to reach victims by mule, horseback, and on foot. Search and rescue efforts, and delivery of supplies, were challenging because many residents who live on a mountainside only have one way in and one way out.

Honeycutt heard about what was happening in western North Carolina on the news. He tried to reach his parents all day on Sept. 27.

Finally, a cousin connected a Starlink terminal to a generator, enabling internet access, and contacted him through Facebook Messenger, he told The Epoch Times.

“It’s really bad,” he was told. “We don’t know what the rest of the county looks like, and we have not heard from your mom and dad,” his cousin said.

Honeycutt booked a flight to Charlotte and arrived at his parents’ property on Sept. 28.

“They weren’t there when I got to the house. I knew they were safe because the generators were running and the lights were on. When they pulled into the driveway, we hugged and talked for around an hour. Then I said, ‘I gotta go and see what I can do.’” he said.

Honeycutt contacted friends who had experience with search and rescue after disasters. They traveled to Yancey County to help.

Friends in Dallas, where he is finishing a degree in architecture and design with the intent to return to Burnsville and open a business, established social media accounts under the name “Bradley Loves Burnsville.”

The accounts gained followers, and Honeycutt outlined the area’s immediate needs to them.

“We needed propane. We needed gas. Before we knew it, a tanker with 11,000 gallons of gas arrived. Necessities and other items like generators started coming in. It was chaos,” Honeycutt said. “There was no outside communication since cell phones didn’t work. No water. No power. It was dark, and we were on our own.”

Recognizing immediate and long-term needs for temporary and permanent housing, and trauma therapy, Honeycutt established an incorporated nonprofit called Appalachian Disaster Coalition.

The current priority is getting displaced residents into campers and temporary homes, Honeycutt said. The group has partnered with other nonprofits to expand their capabilities. Eventually, they plan to build 30 three-bedroom, two-bath, single-family homes for locals in Yancey County.

Appalachian Disaster Coalition and other independent groups are important in ensuring the town isn’t forgotten, Honeycutt said.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/10/2024 - 17:40