Individual Economists

Tuesday: Richmond Fed Mfg

Calculated Risk -

Mortgage Rates From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Jump Back Toward 7%
The latest headlines involve heavy criticism of Fed Chair Powell on the part of The President. Without any comment on whether that criticism is justified, we can still observe that markets find it unsettling. Traders are expressing that sentiment by pushing stocks lower and rates higher.

Mortgage rates jumped fairly sharply today, with the average lender moving up from 6.87% to just under 7.00% for top tier 30yr fixed scenarios. [30 year fixed 6.98%]
emphasis added
Tuesday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April.

Kremlin Hails US Proposal To Deny NATO Membership To Ukraine, Awaits Official Word On Crimea

Zero Hedge -

Kremlin Hails US Proposal To Deny NATO Membership To Ukraine, Awaits Official Word On Crimea

The Kremlin has belatedly reacted to Washington proposals toward ending the war in Ukraine, by praising and welcoming the Trump administration's ruling out Ukraine joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO); however, as The Wall Street Journal reports in the wake of high-level meetings in Europe last week, Moscow "showed no urgency in reaching a deal."

"We have heard from Washington at various levels that Ukraine’s membership in NATO is out of the question," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a Monday press briefing. "This is something that satisfies us and coincides with our position."

"Ukraine should not be a member of NATO and should not have prospects for integration with it," Peskov said. "This would be a threat to the national interests of the Russian Federation. And this is one of the root causes of the conflict."

The US is reportedly waiting on the Zelensky government to respond to the package of proposals which Washington wants Kiev and Europe to accept.

Peskov signaled in his remarks that questions "especially about a time frame" are not the big priority right now, which contradicts President Trump's insistence that the two warring sides quickly get to the negotiating table with days or weeks.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared Monday that Moscow has a "positive attitude" toward genuine efforts to create peace.

Zelensky is expected to convey a decision at a meeting in London later this week. He stipulated on X, "An unconditional cease-fire must be the first step toward peace, and this Easter made it clear that it is Russia’s actions that are prolonging the war."

He went to say the weekend Easter truce was but a PR smokescreen meant to fool Europe and the US on Putin's truce intentions. He accused Russia of having repeatedly violated it.

As for what's said to be another key aspect to the US plan for peace - Crimea's status - the Kremlin was more guarded on this, given final word on this from Washington apparently hasn't been conveyed.

"Anonymously sourced media reports regarding efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict should be taken with a grain of salt," Peskov warned in response to a question about potential American recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea.

"There are numerous reports circulating," Peskov stated. "The search for a peaceful resolution must not be conducted publicly... For this reason, anonymous claims should be evaluated with utmost caution."

Crimea was taken by the Kremlin in 2014 following the CIA/western-orchestrated overthrow of then president Yanukovich in the Maidan coup, and Russia subsequently held a referendum to validate its control but the international community has resisted recognizing the peninsula as Russian to avoid legitimizing the annexation.

Zelensky has lately and repeatedly stressed he will not cede territory to Moscow, and so have European leaders. He and Ukraine and some European officials argue that doing so risks undermining international laws and treaties prohibiting the taking of land through use of force.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 19:20

Drugged Into Oblivion: More Than 60% Of US Adults Admit That They Are Taking Pharmaceutical Drugs

Zero Hedge -

Drugged Into Oblivion: More Than 60% Of US Adults Admit That They Are Taking Pharmaceutical Drugs

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Americans watch more television than anyone else in the world, and as we watch television we are constantly being bombarded by commercials from pharmaceutical companies.  As I discussed in a previous article, pharmaceutical companies spend more than 15 billion dollars on television advertising each year.  The reason they do this is because it works.  We are the most drugged nation in the history of the world, and the pharmaceutical companies are absolutely swimming in cash.

According to polling that was conducted by KFF, a whopping 61 percent of all U.S. adults admit that they are currently taking at least one pharmaceutical drug.

That is a solid majority of the population.

And once they have you on one drug, they are much more likely to be able to get you on another.

The KFF survey found that 13 percent of U.S. adults are taking one pharmaceutical drug.

The KFF survey found that 11 percent of U.S. adults are taking two pharmaceutical drugs.

The KFF survey found that 10 percent of U.S. adults are taking three pharmaceutical drugs.

And most shocking of all, the KFF survey found that 27 percent of U.S. adults are taking at least four pharmaceutical drugs.

That means that more than a quarter of the adult population is currently on at least four  prescription medications.

That is insane!

But this is where we are at as a society.

Elderly Americans are the biggest victims.  One study found “that an estimated 89 percent of older adults” took at least one  prescription medication within the past 12 months.

Even if you aren’t sick, the system is designed to find a reason why you should become a customer of the big pharmaceutical companies.

For example, the percentage of Americans that have been diagnosed with depression has more than tripled since 2005…

Today, new CDC data showed that nearly 18 percent of Americans had depression in 2023, an all-time high. In 2005, when Cruise’s controversial interview aired, that figure was about 5.4 percent.

At this stage, it is so easy to be diagnosed with depression.

Just act a little bit sad, and they will gladly start giving you pills.

This is particularly true for women.  According to Google AI, women in the United States are using antidepressants at a rate that is more than twice as high as men…

According to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) conducted in 2015-2018, approximately 17.7% of women aged 18 and older reported using antidepressants in the past 30 days. This is significantly higher than the rate for men, which was 8.4%.

If you have been on antidepressants, you already know how they can mess with your head.

I have seen it happen to people that I know personally.

So what is going to happen to the millions of Americans that are highly dependent on these drugs if they suddenly can’t get them anymore?

Today, we import approximately 75 percent of our essential medicines, and most of those essential medicines come from either China or India

According to Exiger, the U.S. currently imports 75% of its essential medicines, with most of them coming from China and India. While India produces about half of the generic drugs the U.S. imports, it relies heavily on China for 80% of its active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). More than 500 generic drugs rely on one country’s APIs, including treatments for diabetes and heart conditions as well as antibiotics.

Another factor putting Americans at risk is the use of forced labor in the production of pharmaceuticals. Exiger found that multiple suppliers, including Sinopharm, Zhejiang Shindai Chemical Group and Zhejiang Chemicals Export Corp., relied on Uyghur forced labor in Xinjiang. Customs and Border Patrol is supposed to block goods made with forced labor; however, some still get through.

We have got a real mess on our hands.

Many pharmaceutical drugs will soon become much more expensive, and in other cases we could witness extreme shortages.

Millions of U.S. adults are about to experience a very rude awakening.

Of course it isn’t just adults that are being drugged into oblivion.

Today, millions of American boys are being given drugs for ADHD

More than 21% of 14-year-old boys in this country now supposedly suffer from this condition. The number goes up to 23% for 17-year-old boys. As a result, prescriptions for drugs like Ritalin and Adderall have skyrocketed. From 2012 to 2022, the total number of prescriptions for stimulants to treat ADHD increased dramatically by nearly 60%. Boys between the ages of 10 to 14 were the demographic that saw the highest increase in these prescriptions.

What we are witnessing is a national tragedy.

Most of the boys that are taking these drugs simply do not need them.

As Glenn Back has accurately pointed out, our “feminized education system” tends to punish normal male behavior…

“The truth is we’ve been told not that a feminized education system has increasingly punished normal male behavior it doesn’t understand; it’s not that schools have lost their capacity to educate male students; it’s not that smartphone use and electronics in general have become distractions teachers have been unable to control. Instead, we’re led to believe that boys have suddenly become afflicted with a severe psychological disorder,” Glenn reads from the Daily Wire piece.

He agrees that what’s being done to boys in education is a travesty.

“Everything is just push the girls, push the girls, push the girls — ‘you can be anything.’ ‘Shut up, sit down, have some Ritalin’ to the boys,” he condemns.

The boys who are being written off as distractible and out of control are really just being typical boys.

He is right.

We have been trained to think that typical male behavior is abnormal when it most certainly is not.

Sadly, an increasing percentage of U.S. adults now believe that children are such a “burden” that they don’t want to be parents at all

A new study shows the number of U.S. adults who do not want to have children has doubled in 20 years.

“We found that the percentage of non-parents who don’t want any children rose from 14% in 2002 to 29% in 2023,” Jennifer Watling Neal, co-author of the study and professor of psychology at Michigan State University (MSU), said.

“During the same period, the percentage of non-parents who plan to have children in the future fell from 79% to 59%,” she added.

The relentless propaganda that they have been feeding us is working.

More U.S. adults than ever before are completely rejecting parenthood.

Needless to say, this is a recipe for societal suicide.

If we do not reproduce ourselves, we can’t expect to have any sort of a positive future.

Sadly, millions of Americans simply do not care about the future at this point because they have already been drugged into oblivion.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 18:55

Why More People Are Testing Their Blood Without A Doctor

Zero Hedge -

Why More People Are Testing Their Blood Without A Doctor

Authored by Sheramy Tsai via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The scale doesn’t lie—but it doesn’t tell the whole story.

You might be eating better, exercising more, and still seeing the same number each morning. It’s frustrating, discouraging, and, as it turns out, possibly misleading.

For decades, weight has been treated as a primary marker of health. But a number on the scale says little about inflammation, cardiovascular risk, or metabolic dysfunction—factors that often shift before any visible weight loss appears.

That’s why more people are turning to at-home biomarker testing—health tracking that looks beneath the surface, revealing internal changes long before they’re visible in the mirror or on the scale.

Colin Godby, an engineer and father of two, tested his blood out of curiosity, not concern. What he found was unexpected—and alarming.

The at-home test revealed that Godby had hereditary hemochromatosis, a genetic condition that causes iron to accumulate in the body. Left untreated, it can lead to liver disease, heart problems, and other complications. It was a diagnosis standard labs hadn’t caught—and likely wouldn’t have.

“I’d been chalking up fatigue and joint pain to getting older,” he said. “But this gave me answers. Real ones.”

What stood out to Godby wasn’t just the result—it was the realization that he might never have discovered the issue through routine care. He hadn’t planned to see a doctor, and even if he had, a ferritin test likely wouldn’t have been part of a standard workup.

“I realized how blind I was to the nuance of my health,” said Godby. “And how likely it would be for many other people to also have potential issues they might not know about.”

From COVID-19 Swabs to Full Panels

During the pandemic, millions swabbed their noses at home and waited for COVID-19 test results—an experience that introduced many to the idea of testing health at home.

COVID normalized the idea that you could test yourself and act on the results,” said Jordan Moradian, a product and growth manager at SiPhox Health, a direct-to-consumer testing company, in an interview with The Epoch Times.

Even before the pandemic, health tracking was gaining traction among wellness enthusiasts. COVID-19 accelerated the trend, Moradian said, fueled by renewed interest in immunity, more time at home, and popular science voices like Andrew Huberman.

Grab a SiPhox blood test kit here...

Order SiPhox blood tests over our secure portal

Today, companies like SiPhox, Everlywell, LetsGetChecked, and QuestHealth offer clinical-grade diagnostics at home. Tests typically use finger-prick or saliva samples to measure everything from blood sugar and inflammation to hormones and cholesterol—and deliver results in days.

The global home testing market, valued at more than $10.5 billion in 2024, is projected to nearly double by 2030, according to Grand View Research. The growth reflects a shift toward preventive, patient-led care—emphasizing early detection, frequent monitoring, and personal agency.

Beyond the Doctor’s Office

At-home blood testing gives people more control over their health, often filling gaps left by conventional care.

Most annual checkups include only basic labs—typically a lipid panel and perhaps a comprehensive metabolic panel. However, these often exclude markers of inflammation, insulin resistance, hormone balance, or cardiovascular risk. As a result, early signs of chronic disease may go unnoticed.

Many people turn to at-home biomarker tracking to test markers their physicians may not typically order,” Moradian said.

In places where diagnostics are limited, these tools offer a fuller health picture before a clinical visit.

The appeal is not just access, but speed. Instead of waiting months for a follow-up panel, users can adjust their lifestyle and retest within weeks, getting near real-time feedback on what’s working.

Moradian identified three groups driving demand: people recovering from health scares who want early warnings; younger, data-driven users testing diets or supplements; and those in “medical deserts” with limited access to care.

Some of the most revealing data come from what routine checkups miss, he said. Many users discover elevated ApoB—a key heart disease marker—even with normal cholesterol. Others uncover hormonal imbalances, such as low testosterone, rarely screened for in standard exams.

For many, this internal data becomes more than diagnostic—it becomes personal. The numbers link daily choices to real biological change.

Motivation in the Metrics

The bathroom scale is slow to move and quick to frustrate. Blood work, by contrast, offers internal proof that change is happeningeven before it’s visible. A drop in blood sugar, a dip in inflammation, or a hormone shift can be more motivating than what’s seen in the mirror.

“Improvements in biomarkers almost always come before visible weight changes,” said Dr. Robert Lufkin, a physician and author of “Lies I Taught in Medical School,” in an email interview with The Epoch Times. “Tracking blood sugar or inflammation offers real-time feedback—often before any physical changes show up.”

Moradian sees the same pattern. “Biomarker tracking offers a holistic view of one’s health,” he said. “When someone pursues weight loss, they can also see parallel improvements in blood pressure or kidney function—changes that would otherwise go unnoticed if they focused solely on the scale.”

This ‘whole-picture’ perspective is hugely motivating,” he added. “Seeing multiple indicators trend positively reinforces that lifestyle changes are working even before outward, easily visible progress appears.”

In a culture obsessed with appearance, internal markers offer a deeper kind of progress:one rooted in biology, not vanity.

How Accurate Are At-Home Tests?

As at-home blood testing grows, many wonder if the results are as reliable as those from a doctor’s office. Companies like SiPhox say yes—if the right standards are met.

A common misconception is that at-home testing isn’t as accurate or reliable as clinical testing,” Moradian said. “In reality, reputable at-home tests employ rigorously validated methodologies and must meet strict regulatory standards.

SiPhox processes tests through Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments and College of American Pathologists-accredited labs, which are federally certified for accuracy and oversight. The company reports a 95 percent to 99 percent match with standard venous draws, benchmarked quarterly against labs like LabCorp and Quest Diagnostics.

However, not all tests meet these standards. Experts urge consumers to look past marketing and ask key questions: Is the lab certified? Are the tests validated? Do clinicians review results?

The Association for Diagnostics & Laboratory Medicine (ADLM) supports at-home testing only through certified labs that provide clear explanations and follow-up options.

“Consumer-directed laboratory testing can provide valuable information,” said Anthony Killeen, the group’s president, in a press release. However, he emphasized that it must be used appropriately and with support from qualified professionals.

ADLM has also warned about quality gaps, calling for tighter regulation of misleading or poorly validated tests. As the industry grows, the group’s message is clear: Convenience must not come at the cost of accuracy.

The Limits of At-Home Testing

At-home blood testing offers fast, easy access to health data and the promise of early detection. However, experts warn that more data doesn’t always lead to better outcomes.

One risk is over-testing. Like daily weigh-ins, frequent checks of glucose or inflammation can fuel anxiety over normal fluctuations.

Frequent testing without proper context can lead to anxiety, overanalysis, and obsession with small, normal fluctuations,” said Lufkin. “Not every spike or dip is meaningful—bodies are dynamic.”

Another challenge is interpretation. Without a doctor’s guidance, users may make diet or supplement decisions based on a single number.

“Self-monitoring is intended to complement professional medical advice, not replace it,” said Moradian. “We encourage users to share their biomarker data with their health care providers, fostering collaborative decision-making.”

A 2020 review in Archives of Pathology & Laboratory Medicine echoed this concern, noting that consumers “may not know the risks or what significance a result has.” In some cases, false positives led to unnecessary procedures, added costs, and anxiety.

Privacy is another issue. A 2023 study published in JAMA Internal Medicine found that fewer than half of direct-to-consumer companies followed HIPAA guidelines. Only four allowed users to delete their data, while over half admitted they could share it for research or with third parties.

Cost is another barrier. While tests may appear cheaper than lab visits, a full panel can cost $75 to $300, and few are covered by insurance. For frequent users, the price adds up quickly.

Your Body, Your Baseline

At-home testing shifts the focus from population averages to personal baselines—moving health tracking from what works for most to what works for you.

This idea underpins “N=1 medicine,” a growing movement in which individuals act as their own experiments. Instead of relying on annual checkups or generic advice, users collect data, track trends, and make changes based on what works for them.

But where to begin?

Lufkin recommends starting with a foundational lab panel that includes fasting insulin, fasting glucose, HbA1c (a longer-term marker of blood glucose levels), triglycerides and HDL (to calculate the ratio), CRP (a marker of inflammation), LDL-C, and vitamin D.

“These give a snapshot of your metabolic and inflammatory status—far more informative than weight or BMI,” he said.

Once you have your baseline, Lufkin advises a gradual, focused approach:

  • Pick one change, such as cutting added sugar, walking after meals, or improving sleep.
  • Track how you feel—energy, mood, cravings, and digestion often shift before lab numbers do.
  • Retest every three to six months to monitor trends and confirm your direction.

“Even small improvements confirm that your efforts are working—long before the mirror shows it,” he said.

Ultimately, at-home testing isn’t about micromanaging every fluctuation. “You don’t need to be perfect—just curious,” Lufkin said. “Let data guide your next best step. That’s real empowerment.”

And again, pick up a SiPhox test here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 18:05

"China Will Never Accept It": Beijing Warns Countries Against Trade Deal With Trump At China's Expense

Zero Hedge -

"China Will Never Accept It": Beijing Warns Countries Against Trade Deal With Trump At China's Expense

It's starting to smell like a real trade war.

Just days after the WSJ reported that Scott Bessent's grand trade war strategy was to force more than 70 US trade partners to sign bilateral deals while aligning against China, Beijing has warned it will retaliate against countries that negotiate trade deals with the US “at the expense of China’s interests”, fueling global tensions as the world’s two economic superpowers lunge at each other over tariffs.

“China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests,” the ministry said on Monday. “If this happens, China will never accept it and will resolutely take countermeasures in a reciprocal manner.”

“China respects the right of all parties to resolve their economic and trade differences with the United States through equal consultations,” the commerce ministry said adding that if countries encroached on Beijing’s interests, it was “determined and capable of safeguarding its own rights”.

The ministry added that “all parties should stand on the side of fairness and justice and should defend international economic and trade rules and the multilateral trading system”.

It said: “Once international trade returns to the ‘law of the jungle’, where the strong prey on the weak, all countries will become victims.”

The statement by China's commerce ministry, which was in response to reports that Trump’s administration planned to use trade talks with multiple countries to try to isolate China, called on them to instead join Beijing to “resist unilateral bullying."

The sharp escalation follows the failure to gain any traction in trade and tariff negotiations. Trump has called several times for Beijing to open negotiations to avert a trade war, and China has said it is open to talks, but neither side has signalled that high-level contacts are under way.

While last week's WSJ report said the US strategy to gang up on China was intended to pressure Beijing to come to the negotiating table and abandon its defiant stance, China has shown little sign of backing down. Instead, president Xi Jinping visited Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia last week, where he sought to shore up relations with Beijing’s trading partners.

South-east Asian exporters face steep tariffs under the Trump administration, which has also accused them of serving as a transshipment conduit for Chinese goods. Unfortunately for them, without the US as a final customer for most of their exports (including Chinese transshipments), and vows of solidarity will be hollow once countless Pacific rim factories go dark sparking an economic and labor crisis in countries which have virtually no social safety net.

And while China has ironically sought to portray itself as a pillar of the international trading system, it is struggling with weak domestic demand following a deep property slowdown, forcing policymakers to lean on manufacturing and exports for economic growth and leaving the economy vulnerable to the trade war with the US. As a reminder, some 40% of Chinese economic growth is in the form of trade, and while the hit to the US would be mostly along the inflationary and capital market pathways, once more than a third of China's economy is forced to find new end markets,  the pain for the domestic economic will be orders of magnitude worse.

It's also why Goldman now expects China's Q2 real GDP growth to collapse to 0.8% qoq ann from 4.9% in Q1.

Meanwhile, Beijing has repeatedly promised various initiatives to spur consumption but has held back from launching a “bazooka” fiscal stimulus (something it can't do since it has hit debt saturation), instead investing heavily in industry to shake off its reliance on western technology.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 15:00

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March

Calculated Risk -

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in March, down 4.7% from February’s preliminary pace and down 1.5% from last March’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 2.6% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release March Existing Home sales on Thursday, April 24th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.14 million SAAR, down from 4.26 million. Last year, the NAR reported sales in March 2024 at 4.12 million SAAR.

LA Ports: March Inbound Traffic Up YoY, Outbound Down

Calculated Risk -

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average.

LA Area Port TrafficClick on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic increased 0.8% in March compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.   Outbound traffic decreased 0.9% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.
The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

LA Area Port TrafficUsually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.  
Imports were up 12% YoY in March and exports were down 9% YoY.    
Recently importers rushed to beat the tariffs.  And port traffic will likely slow sharply in coming months.

Jury Convicts Renovaro Biosciences Founder Of Orchestrating Murder-For-Hire Of His Former Business Partner

Zero Hedge -

Jury Convicts Renovaro Biosciences Founder Of Orchestrating Murder-For-Hire Of His Former Business Partner

A federal jury on Friday convicted former Enochian Biosciences (now Renovaro) "scientific founder", "inventor" and former largest shareholder Serhat Gumrukcu of orchestrating the 2018 murder-for-hire of his former business partner in Vermont, according to VTDigger.com

The jury found Gumrukcu - who was brought to the attention of market participants by former short seller Hindenburg Research back in 2022, alongside of ShareSleuth - guilty on all three felony charges: murder for hire, conspiracy to commit murder for hire, and conspiracy to commit wire fraud. He now faces a mandatory life sentence. 

Gumrukcu was taken into custody shortly afterward. Jurors deliberated for about six hours, including a lunch break, returning their decision Friday afternoon.

Gumrukcu had formerly been praised by Enochian CEO Mark Dybul - who once worked under Anthony Fauci at the National Institute of Health - with Dybul writing in November 2019 that he was "one of those rare geniuses that is not bound by scientific discipline or dogma". Hindenburg accused Dybul of turning a "blind eye to outrageous fraud" perpetrated by Gumrukcu in a stunning follow up report after the "inventor's" death. 

Mark Dybul, far left, Serhat Gumrukcu, second from left

After being removed from Enochian, the company changed its name and continued without Gumrukcu. The murder for hire case stems from the killing of 39-year-old Gregory Davis, which prosecutors say was ordered by Gumrukcu over a soured oil deal.

“This verdict is the product of years of investigative work,” said Acting U.S. Attorney Michael Drescher, commending the efforts of federal and local law enforcement.

Once a Turkish national living in a Los Angeles mansion, Gumrukcu now awaits formal sentencing later this year. His attorney could not be reached for comment.

A supposed mind-reading magician turned biomedical entrepreneur, Serhat Gumrukcu mingled with Hollywood elites and earned millions through unconventional medical ventures. But during his five-week trial in Burlington, he faced a far different spotlight—three days on the witness stand, denying involvement in the 2018 murder-for-hire of former business partner Gregory Davis.

Though he claimed innocence, Gumrukcu admitted under oath to lying to authorities and said he'd told “so many lies” in past deals he couldn’t remember them all. He acknowledged buying a fake medical degree from Russia, calling it “cheating,” and described his younger self as “arrogant,” advocating unorthodox treatments like leeches and mistletoe.

As part of their investigation into Enochian and Gumrukcu, Hindenburg Research ordered the very same degree to prove that it was fake back in 2022. 

Prosecutors argued Gumrukcu had Davis killed to prevent him from exposing fraud tied to a failed oil deal—one that could have derailed a lucrative biomedical contract with Enochian BioSciences.

“Gregg Davis was a problem for the defendant,” said prosecutor Paul Van de Graaf. “It was the defendant who paid for the murder.”

Van de Graaf outlined how Gumrukcu financed the $200,000 plot, with testimony from three co-conspirators, including former assistant Berk Eratay. Eratay claimed Gumrukcu told him he wanted to “get rid of a problem,” prompting Eratay to enlist others, including hitman Jerry Banks. Banks testified he posed as a U.S. marshal, kidnapped Davis, and executed him in rural Vermont.

Defense attorney Ethan Balogh argued it was Eratay who “ran the op,” not Gumrukcu. He said the funds were meant for a cryptocurrency project and portrayed Davis as untrustworthy. Balogh accused the three key witnesses—who took plea deals to avoid life sentences—of lying to save themselves: “These men were all going to die in the cage.”

Prosecutors countered that none of them had a reason to kill Davis—except Gumrukcu. As Van de Graaf said, even “peaceful” men can outsource their violence.

As Hindenburg noted in a subsequent report, the story of Gumrukcu’s rise and fall, up to awaiting trial was chronicled in a podcast produced by Amazon’s Wondery (SpotifyApple).

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 13:45

This One Weird Trick Let D.C. Judges Stage A Coup

Zero Hedge -

This One Weird Trick Let D.C. Judges Stage A Coup

Authored by Daniel Greenfield,

The Supreme Court’s ruling in J.G.G. v. Donald J. Trump was not an unqualified triumph for the Trump administration’s deportations of foreign gang members, but it was a definite rebuke not just to Judge Boasberg, but to the entire D.C. Circuit Court shadow government.

The ACLU filed J.G.G. v. Trump in defense of five Venezuelan inmates in New York and Texas. All of the men claimed that they were not gang members and there was no indication that any of them were being deported, denying them any actual standing for coming before the court.

Especially before Judge James Boasberg who is thousands of miles away in Washington D.C.

Despite the lack of standing and the case being filed in the wrong venue, Judge James Boasberg, the chief judge of the D.C. Circuit Court, not only blocked the deportation of all gang members back to Venezuela, but ordered that planes currently over international airspace that were carrying gang members turn around and bring them back to the United States.

Boasberg fumed that the planes were not turned around on his mere word and threatened the Justice Department with repercussions for not recognizing his power over not only the entire country, but also the entire planet.

But why was a judge from the D.C. Circuit Court on a case involving inmates in Texas?

The answer is that leftist organizations and the judges of the D.C. Circuit Court were using one weird trick to seize power over the entire country (if not always the planet) and transform themselves into a shadow government able to block any Trump administration move.

The Supreme Court’s ruling vacating Boasberg’s order stated that, “the detainees are confined in Texas, so venue is improper in the District of Columbia” and directed that the appropriate “venue lies in the district of confinement”. So how did a D.C. judge ever get involved at all?

In Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s concurrence he noted that the “only question is where that judicial review should occur. That venue question turns on whether these transfer claims belong in habeas corpus proceedings or instead may be brought under the Administrative Procedure Act.” The Supreme Court’s ruling even noted that “initially the detainees sought relief in habeas among other causes of action, but they dismissed their habeas claims” and stated that “their claims fall within the ‘core’ of the writ of habeas corpus and thus must be brought in habeas.”

Kavanaugh then laid out a brief history of detainees, including those terrorists at Gitmo, bringing claims under habeas corpus rather than, strangely, under the Administrative Procedure Act.

The Administrative Procedure Act had been created in response to the rise of a vast unaccountable government bureaucracy under FDR. The APA was supposed to stop the administrative state from turning into exactly the kind of self-governing machine it grew into which FDR had described as threatening to “develop a fourth branch of government for which there is no sanction in the Constitution.” It was not meant to block presidents from executing their policies or subject every one of those policies to the review of the D.C. Circuit Court.

The D.C. Circuit Court however has enabled every leftist ‘resistance’ group to go ‘judge shopping’ and file APA complaints to block anything and everything President Trump does.

And so the ACLU appealed to the D.C. Circuit Court, wielding the Administrative Procedure Act, to challenge the question of whether President Trump’s use of the Alien Enemies Act (which predated the APA by 148 years) applied and what could be defined as wartime. The ACLU was asking Boasberg to block President Trump’s use of presidential powers based on an act meant to check bureaucratic overreach. And Judge Boasberg went ahead and tried to seize control of U.S. forces abroad from President Trump in the name of an act meant to regulate agencies.

The Supreme Court’s response to this unconstitutional abomination was milder than it deserved.

What gave the ACLU and Boasberg the idea that they could get away with it? The ACLU had previously sued the Trump administration for removing materials falsely describing the existence of a ‘transgender’ society as a violation of the “Administrative Procedure Act” by “removing articles without a reasoned basis” as if that were a matter subject to the APA.

In another case, ‘Judge’ Ana Reyes, a Uruguayan activist lawyer appointed by Biden as the first gay ‘Latinx’ judge in the D.C. Circuit Court, blocked the removal of mentally ill individuals who hallucinate the idea that they are members of some other sex than their biological one, by claiming that it’ss “soaked in animus and dripping with pretext, Its language is unabashedly demeaning, its policy stigmatizes transgender persons as inherently unfit” and argued, despite the mountain of evidence, that the Department of Defense had “not provided a legitimate reason for banning all transgender troops” and therefore violated the Administrative Procedure Act.

Reyes had confused the Administrative Procedure Act with her own personal opinion and rather than ruling on the legality of a policy based on actual laws, abused the APA to seize power over the Pentagon to promote her own favored social and sexual worldviews in the APA’s name.

But the Supreme Court has begun shooting down some APA abuses.

In its response to a Biden judge in Massachusetts blocking the Trump administration from ending education grants that violate its ban on DEI, the court noted that Judge Myong Joun and the court “lacked jurisdiction to order the payment of money under the APA” and that monetary cases involving the government are supposed to go to the Court of Federal Claims.

The APA has become a favored weapon of choice whether the issue at hand is financial, foreign policy, deporting illegal aliens or even publishing materials about the existence of transgenderism on government websites. During the first term of the administration, leftist groups had taken to boasting of having entire “teams of APA litigators and experts”.

And with a 93% loss rate for the Trump administration in APA cases, the judicial coup was a sound strategy. All a leftist judge had to do was declare that the Trump administration’s actions were “poorly reasoned” or lacked “sufficient rationale” and would override the president’s orders.

The APA enabled a massive shift of power from the executive branch to district courts, and to the D.C. Circuit Court which had seized virtually unlimited power from both the president and local courts and judges in the process creating an unelected shadow government.

But the D.C. judicial shadow government overreached itself. And Boasberg’s attempt to seize presidential powers has created a constitutional moment of crisis that may unwind the coup.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 13:25

Miami Housing Market Hit By "Breathtaking" Collapse In Demand

Zero Hedge -

Miami Housing Market Hit By "Breathtaking" Collapse In Demand

Nick Gerli, CEO and Founder of real estate analytics firm Reventure Consulting, has issued another troubling update on Florida's housing market—this time sounding the alarm about a collapse in demand across the Miami metro area. He described the plunge in sales as "breathtaking."

For the last few years, we've tracked the post-Covid surge in inventory hitting Sun Belt states, including this note from last summer: 

This was followed by Gerli's report in late January: "My Favorite Housing Market Graph Right Now"... 

Now Gerli has offered more color on the deteriorating housing market in Miami:

The collapse in demand in Miami's housing market is breathtaking. Sales are down 50% from pandemic peak, and are 30% below the long-term average for March. There's a narrative building in Florida that somehow Miami won't be impacted by this housing downturn. And that narrative is likely wrong.

Gerli debunked some misconceptions about the downturn, with some individuals saying this is "West Coast only."

Inventory in Miami has surged to 51,000 homes - the second highest on record. 

Meanwhile

"In some ways, it's surprising prices haven't dropped by more already due to the demand collapse. And resulting inventory spike. but in the end housing downturns can take time to play out. And the whole Miami area is at a big risk if the current trends in the market continue," Gerli noted. 

According to the Reventure app, prices across Miami-Dade County are 20.3% overvalued

He warned: "The more overvalued prices are, the greater the risk of downturns."

Separately, and more broadly, the US housing inventory for new homes has hit its highest level since 2007.

What could possibly go wrong in an oversupplied housing market, with 30-year fixed mortgage rates hovering around 7%?

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 12:45

Democrat Judge Caught Harboring Suspected Tren de Aragua Gang Member

Zero Hedge -

Democrat Judge Caught Harboring Suspected Tren de Aragua Gang Member

Authored by Ken Silva via Headline USA,

A county judge in New Mexico has reportedly resigned after Homeland Security Investigations agents arrested a suspected Tren de Aragua gang member and other illegal aliens at his home.

The resignation of Doña Ana County Magistrate Judge Joel Cano comes after HSI agents executed a search warrant at his home on Feb. 28—arresting suspected 23-year-old gang member Cristhian Ortega-Lopez there. Agents also took an undisclosed number of other illegal immigrants into custody, and seized four firearms that he handled illegally.

The details of Ortega-Lopez’s case are wild.

According to court records, the suspected Tren de Aragua member was arrested while entering the U.S. illegally on Dec. 15, 2023. Due to overcrowded Border Patrol facilities, Ortega-Lopez was released three days later.

Ortega-Lopez was supposed to stay in Denver pending removal proceedings. However, he moved to El Paso, Texas, without informing Homeland Security or any other government agency.

It was in El Paso where Ortega-Lopez met Nancy Cano, the wife of Judge Cano. The Canos admitted they hired Ortega-Lopez to install a glass door for them—which is illegal since the Venezuelan was not authorized to work.

Ortega-Lopez was evicted from his apartment last April, after which he moved in with the Canos.

The suspected Tren de Aragua member’s relationship with the Canos became cozy, so much so that he was introduced to their daughter, April Cano, who let him use her guns—which, like him working without authorization, is illegal.

Unfortunately for the Canos, Ortega-Lopez posted pictures of himself with those firearms on social media.

The story became arguably even stranger after the HSI agents executed the Feb. 28 search warrant. On March 13, Nancy Cano wrote to U.S. Judge Damian Martinez, pleading for him to have mercy on Ortega-Lopez. In that letter, Cano seemingly admits that she illegally hired the immigrant—and also hired him out to others.

“Each job he got I was told he did an excellent job. No one was ever disappointed. I started to receive more requests for him to return or referral for more jobs,” she said, also enclosing pictures of Ortega-Lopez with the Cano family.

“On five different occasions he went through Border Patrol check points with no problems,” she added—perhaps disclosing yet more crimes. “I took him in as my own son … Please consider his future and give him a chance.”

During a court hearing the next day, U.S. Judge Damian Martinez asked Justice Department prosecutor Maria Armijio if she knew Judge Cano. When the prosecutor said she didn’t know Judge Cano, Martinez said he did know him—and trusted him.

“I’ve met him before several times and he’s got a BS meter like you – a lot of people have never seen. He knows when somebody is BS’ing him,” Judge Martinez said. “I don’t think Judge Cano has a BS meter and I don’t think he would just let anybody live in his property.”

Judge Martinez found that Ortega-Lopez was not a flight risk, and ordered him to be released. The DOJ appealed on March 28, disclosing more information about Ortega-Lopez’s relationship with the Canos, as well as his affiliation with Tren de Aragua. According to the DOJ, agents found ample evidence of his gang affiliation while searching his cell phones.

“A search of the cellphones revealed the following, which affirms the fact that the Defendant is a TdA member: 

"(1) A conversation with an individual on April 30, 2024, in which he refers to his AK-47 tattoo as an ‘Aragua train,’ and comments that he is worried about telling [Nancy Cano] about it,” the DOJ said in its March 28 appeal.

“(2) A conversation with an individual in which they discuss the $5,000 award offered by the State of Texas for TdA members and joke about the reward money,” the DOJ’s appeal added.

“(3) A conversation with an individual in which the other participant warns Defendant about sending photographs that may jeopardize him in the United States that also includes a request to get a grenade or two 38s.”

Agents also allegedly found photographs of two brutal murder victims that includes mutilated bodies, decapitated heads and dismembered hands on Ortega-Lopez’s cell phones.

A hearing is schedule for April 30 for Judge Martinez to reconsider allowing Ortega-Lopez to remain free on bail. The Canos have reportedly declined to comment on the matter.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 12:25

El Salvador Offers To Swap Venezuelans Deported From US For Political Prisoners Held By Venezuela

Zero Hedge -

El Salvador Offers To Swap Venezuelans Deported From US For Political Prisoners Held By Venezuela

El Salvaror's President Nayib Bukele has offered to swap 252 Venezuelans deported to his country for "political prisoners" held by Venezuela.

Bukele has agreed to hold deportees from the US in a maximum-security prison known as CECOT in exchange for payment - currently reported at around $6 million and growing. The Trump administration on March 15 sent 261 suspected illegal alien gang members to CECOT under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, and has sent roughly 30 more since then, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The Trump administration alleges that the deported Venezuelan illegals belong to criminal gangs, including Tren de Aragua, which he deemed a terrorist organization earlier this year.

On Sunday, Bukele wrote on X that the 252 Venezuelans could be sent to Venezuela in exchange for the same number of "political prisoners" held by the Maduro government under a "humanitarian agreement."

"Your political prisoners haven’t committed any crime," he wrote.

"Mr. Nicolas Maduro, you have said on numerous occasions that you want the Venezuelans back and free," reads the post. "Unlike you, who have political prisoners, we don't have political prisoners. All the Venezuelans we have in custody were detained as part of an operation against gangs like the Tren de Aragua in the United States.

"Unlike our detainees, many of whom have committed murder, others have committed rape, and some have even been arrested multiple times before being deported, your political prisoners have committed no crime. The only reason they are imprisoned is because they opposed you and your electoral fraud.

"I want to propose a humanitarian agreement that includes the repatriation of 100% of the 252 Venezuelans who were deported, in exchange for the release and delivery of an identical number (252) of the thousands of political prisoners that you hold," Bukele continued (translated).

If Maduro accepts the deal, it could ease political pressure on the Trump administration, which has been accused of denying due process to illegals and was temporarily blocked by the Supreme Court on Saturday from further deportations under the 18th century law.

The proposal comes after US Democrats dropped everything to demand the return of a 'wrongly deported' El Salvadoran national living in the US illegally, Kilmar Abrego Garcia. 

Garcia, whose wife issued a restraining order for domestic violence, was issued a deportation order and was later given a "withholding of removal" status due to danger he faced from a 'rival gang' if he returned to El Salvador.

Last week, Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) visited Abrego Garcia in El Salvador after Bukele refused to cooperate with an order by the US Supreme Court instructing the Trump administration to "facilitate" the return of Abrego Garcia.

According to Venezuelan rights group Foro Penal, there are 903 political prisoners being held by Maduro, including protesters and opposition leaders. Among the political prisoners Bukele mentioned is the son-in-law of former diplomat Edmundo González, who ran against Maduro and is considered by some allies of Washington to have won the election. Also being held by Maduro are journalist Roland Carreño, and the mother of opposition leader María Corina Machado.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 12:05

China's Oil Supertankers Slammed With $5.2 Million Fee Per U.S. Port Call

Zero Hedge -

China's Oil Supertankers Slammed With $5.2 Million Fee Per U.S. Port Call

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

  • The U.S. is introducing fees on operators of China-built vessels calling at U.S. ports.

  • These fees could reach up to $5.2 million per call for large supertankers.

  • The U.S. Trade Representative states the move aims to address Chinese dominance and bolster the U.S. shipbuilding industry.

The U.S. move to penalize China-built and China-owned vessels calling at U.S. ports could lead to an oil supertanker made in China and operated by a Chinese company facing a fee of up to $5.2 million per call at a U.S. port, shipbrokers have estimated.

The U.S. last week announced fees on vessel owners and operators of China based on net tonnage per U.S. voyage. 

The previous proposal was a per-port-entry fee of up to $1.5 million on Chinese-built vessels, and up to a $1 million per-port-entry fee on any vessel (Chinese-built or non-Chinese-built) for operators that have any Chinese-built vessels in their fleet or orderbook.

Now, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) plans to impose fees on operators of Chinese-built ships based on net tonnage or containers, increasing incrementally over the following years.

Commenting on the new USTR move, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said, “Ships and shipping are vital to American economic security and the free flow of commerce.”

“The Trump administration’s actions will begin to reverse Chinese dominance, address threats to the U.S. supply chain, and send a demand signal for U.S.-built ships,” Greer added.

Under the new plan, the fee on a China-made China-operated supertanker could reach up to $5.2 million per call because of the large tonnage of the supertankers compared to smaller oil tankers, according to the research arm of Arrow Shipbroking Group cited by Bloomberg.

The previous per-call only fee would have charged up to $3.5 million for a tanker to call at a U.S. port.

Oil traders have already started to avoid hiring tankers built in China amid concerns that port fees could be coming for Chinese vessels at U.S. ports as part of a plan by President Donald Trump to revitalize the American shipbuilding industry. 

Oil traders and charterers that are booking vessels to call, load, or discharge cargoes at U.S. ports are seeking vessels not built in China, market sources told Bloomberg earlier this month.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 11:45

"He Who Has The Gold Makes The Rules" President Trump Proclaims Over Easter Weekend

Zero Hedge -

"He Who Has The Gold Makes The Rules" President Trump Proclaims Over Easter Weekend

While many are still wondering about whether or not the audit of Fort Knox is happening, it doesn't seem like President Trump doubts the country's gold holdings.

With gold surging through $3420/oz. for the first time ever this morning, many are pointing back to one of President Trump's Truth Social posts from yesterday. Trump wrote on Easter: "THE GOLDEN RULE OF NEGOTIATING AND SUCCESS: HE WHO HAS THE GOLD MAKES THE RULES. THANK YOU!". 

Recall, in early 2025, Donald Trump and Elon Musk publicly questioned whether Fort Knox still holds its gold reserves. Trump announced plans to visit the site, while Musk suggested a live-streamed inspection, saying, “Maybe it’s there, maybe it’s not.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent then responded by citing a 2024 audit confirming the presence of 147.3 million ounces of gold, with no major withdrawals in years. He added that senators can request a tour through his office.

Meanwhile, we've laid out a number of reasons we think gold is surging in our article out this morning here

"in a sign that investors are rotating investments away from the US, Deutsche Bank AG said that Chinese clients have reduced some of their Treasuries holdings in favor of European debt. European high-quality bonds, Japanese government bonds and gold are likely to be the potential choices for investors as alternatives to Treasuries, said Lillian Tao, head of China macro and global emerging market sales at the bank," we wrote earlier this morning.

While there was no specific catalyst for the suddenly collapse in the illiquid early Asian session, which saw many countries on extended Easter holiday, Bloomberg quoted traders that hedge funds are selling the dollar against virtually any currencies after National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Friday that President Donald Trump is still exploring ways to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, according to traders.

“The president and his team will continue to study that,” National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Friday when asked by a reporter if removing Powell was an option.

Hassett then suggested, accurately, that the Fed under Powell, who was appointed by Trump during his first term, had acted politically to benefit Democrats.

“The policy of this Federal Reserve was to raise rates the minute President Trump was elected last time, to say that the supply-side tax cuts that were going to be inflationary,” Hassett said, adding that Fed officials opted not to go “on TV and at IMF meetings and warn about the terrible inflation from the obvious runaway spending from Joe Biden, and the obvious runaway spending from Joe Biden was textbook inflationary,” Hassett continued. “And then they cut rates right ahead of the election.”

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 11:25

El Salvador Works With Nvidia To Develop Sovereign AI Infrastructure

Zero Hedge -

El Salvador Works With Nvidia To Develop Sovereign AI Infrastructure

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

El Salvador, the first country in the world to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, is working with the computer chip giant Nvidia to implement artificial intelligence for national development.

El Salvador signed a letter of intent to collaborate with Nvidia on “sovereign AI to drive innovation and economic growth,” the National Bitcoin Office (ONBTC) of El Salvador announced on X on April 21.

As part of the collaboration, El Salvador will benefit from Nvidia’s AI tools, resources and expertise, enabling the development of sovereign AI capabilities targeting priorities related to culture, language, environment and economy.

“El Salvador will focus on building domestic AI infrastructure, upskilling the workforce, and creating solutions to address local challenges such as improving healthcare delivery, advancing education, and boosting economic productivity,” the announcement said.

AI training for state officials and developers

El Salvador’s latest collaboration with Nvidia marks the country’s commitment to encouraging AI usage to optimize multiple processes within the government and society.

With its new AI push, El Salvador intends to establish AI training programs for developers, researchers and government officials to “ensure the nation has the talent to sustain its AI ambitions.”

Source: The Bitcoin Office

One example includes the creation of AI-driven models to forecast weather and rainfall, which would support emergency response, protect residents in landslide-prone areas and optimize hydroelectric power management.

Not the first AI initiative for El Salvador

El Salvador’s Nvidia partnership adds to a growing list of AI-focused initiatives.

In March 2025, the ONBTC announced Salvador’s university-level public education AI program CUBO_ai, touting it as the “only national education program bringing in top-tier field experts.” The program was announced with support from major Bitcoin bull Cathie Wood, who is expected to give the first lecture as part of the program.

An excerpt from the CUBO_ai announcement by El Salvador. Source: The Bitcoin Office

Last year, Wood predicted that El Salvador’s Bitcoin (BTC) and AI plans may boost GDP tenfold by 2029.

While El Salvador has been aggressively introducing AI initiatives, its Bitcoin ambitions have been somewhat deterred.

In early March, the International Monetary Fund moved to restrict further Bitcoin purchases by El Salvador as part of an extended $1.4 billion funding arrangement with the country. However, the government has continued stacking 1 Bitcoin a day, raising questions about the implications of the deal with the IMF.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 11:05

California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

A brief excerpt:
From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty ease March home sales, C.A.R. reports
March’s sales pace fell 2.3 percent from the 284,540 homes sold in February and was up 4.9 percent from a year ago, when a revised 264,200 homes were sold on an annualized basis.
...
Months of SupplyIn March, sales in these markets were down 3.0% YoY. Last month, in February, these same markets were down 6.1% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in March 2025 (21) as in March 2024 (21). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be close to the change in the NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
Several local markets - like Illinois, Miami, New Jersey and New York - will report after the NAR release.
There is much more in the article.

Putin Confirms End Of Easter Truce, Large-Scale Fighting Resumes

Zero Hedge -

Putin Confirms End Of Easter Truce, Large-Scale Fighting Resumes

Russia has confirmed the end of its 30-hour Easter truce, which reportedly had some success as areas across the frontlines saw guns and shelling fall silent for the first time in well over three years.

On Monday the Kremlin acknowledged that military action has resumed, and also emphasized again that the ceasefire which began Saturday evening was indicative of its attitude that it is indeed open to any peace initiatives.

"Our attitude to ceasefires is positive, and that is why we proposed the initiative, especially as it was during the holy Easter days," Putin had said of the special holiday weekend truce. "We’ve seen the initial reaction [from Kiev], as I believe everyone did. The statement characterized our proposal as ‘playing with lives’ and so on."

Via Al Jazeera footage

Zelensky had quickly accused Putin of not being genuine, and suggested it was a PR move intended to signal the Trump administration. "As of Easter morning, we can say that the Russian army is trying to create a general impression of a ceasefire, but in some places, it does not abandon individual attempts to advance and inflict losses on Ukraine," he had posted on X.

"In practice, either Putin does not have full control over his army, or the situation proves that in Russia, they have no intention of making a genuine move toward ending the war, and are only interested in favorable PR coverage," Zelensky wrote.

But Putin had pointed out, "Apparently, smarter people – probably foreign handlers – explained that refusing such a proposal is a losing proposition for the Kiev regime, and [the Ukrainians] swiftly agreed."

Putin has also shot back in fresh Monday statements that Zelensky was "ready to reject Easter ceasefire — until his Western curators reminded him it's bad PR to oppose peace outright."

Ukraine has meanwhile proposed extending the truce for 30 days after it ended midnight Sunday, resulting in the Kremlin saying it is studying the possibility. Putin has since said he is reviewing a Ukrainian proposal for each side to case attacks on any civilian infrastructure.

Still, Putin has made clear that he's not interested in a merely temporary solution, but wants to achieve something lasing, on fears that Ukraine would just use a 30-day window to rearm and regroup.

Russian state media has published footage showing that during the Easter truce there was some positive, peaceful engagement among some troops on the ground.

As the for US, the State Department on Sunday that the US remains committed to "a full and comprehensive ceasefire." The Trump administration has made clear it is losing patience, and that both sides need to move fast toward the negotiating table.

Ukraine's Air Force confirmed on Monday the resumption of heavy strikes, describing Russian forces launched 96 drones and three missiles on eastern and southern Ukraine overnight.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 10:45

Abrego Garcia Moved To Lower Security Detention Facility, Given Own Room: State Department

Zero Hedge -

Abrego Garcia Moved To Lower Security Detention Facility, Given Own Room: State Department

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Kilmar Abrego Garcia, an illegal immigrant who was deported to El Salvador by the Trump administration, has been transferred from the country’s maximum-security prison to a detention facility, where he now has his own room, according to an April 20 court filing by the U.S. State Department.

Abrego Garcia, a Salvadoran native, illegally entered the United States in 2011 and was living in Maryland. He was arrested and deported to El Salvador in March for allegedly being a member of the MS-13 gang, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, despite an immigration judge having issued a withholding of removal—which legally barred his deportation to his home country—in 2019 due to concerns for his safety.

The department said Abrego Garcia was transferred from El Salvador’s Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT) to a facility in Santa Ana eight days before he met with U.S. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) on April 17 during the senator’s visit to the country.

“Abrego Garcia told Sen. Van Hollen that he had been placed in the administrative building of Centro Industrial, in a room of his own with a bed and furniture, and that he was not in a cell,” Michael Kozak, a senior official at the State Department’s Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs, said in the filing.

Van Hollen traveled to El Salvador last week to visit Abrego Garcia after Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele said the man would not be returned to the United States.

The U.S. Supreme Court has ordered the Trump administration to facilitate his return to the United States after it acknowledged that he was deported following an administrative error.

The administration has said that it lacked the authority to return Abrego Garcia from El Salvador as he was already in the custody of a foreign nation.

Speaking to reporters on April 16, Van Hollen said the Salvadoran government initially denied him a visit or phone call with Abrego Garcia after meeting with the country’s Vice President Félix Ulloa. That visit occurred the following day when Salvadoran officials transported the man to the hotel where Van Hollen was staying.

The senator has accused the Trump administration of defying court orders.

“When you defy court orders and deny one man his Constitutional rights, you threaten them for ALL,” Van Hollen stated on social media, adding that there was no evidence linking Abrego Garcia to the MS-13 gang.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.

President Donald Trump has criticized Democrats whom he said were falsely portraying Abrego Garcia as an innocent person, saying that two courts have found him to be a member of “the violent, killer gang MS-13.”

“Those lying to the American People on behalf of violent criminals have to be held responsible by the Agencies and the Courts,” Trump stated in a Truth Social post on Sunday.

U.S. President Donald Trump greets Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele at the White House on April 14, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

On April 18, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) released documents detailing Abrego Garcia’s past encounters with law enforcement.

According to the documents, Abrego Garcia was pulled over in Tennessee for speeding while carrying eight other individuals in a vehicle belonging to his employer in December 2022.

No luggage was found in the vehicle. DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said the group’s three-day travel from Texas to Maryland “reek of human trafficking.”

“We hear far too much about the gang members and criminals’ false sob stories and not enough about their victims,” McLaughlin said in a statement. Abrego Garcia was not charged in the incident.

In 2019, Abrego Garcia was identified by the Prince George’s County Police Department’s gang unit as a member of the MS-13 gang. He was later granted withholding of removal by an immigration judge, according to the DHS.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 08:50

Transcript: Martín Escobari, General Atlantic

The Big Picture -

 

 

 

The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Martín Escobari, General Atlantic, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

 

 

~~~

 

XXXXX insert transcript here XXXXX

 

~~~

 

 

 

 

The post Transcript: Martín Escobari, General Atlantic appeared first on The Big Picture.

US Stock Futures, Dollar, Treasuries Tumble On Powell Punt Panic; Gold, Bitcoin Soar

Zero Hedge -

US Stock Futures, Dollar, Treasuries Tumble On Powell Punt Panic; Gold, Bitcoin Soar

With most global markets still closed for Easter holiday, US equity futures start the week sharply lower while the dollar and Treasuries plunge (10s and 30s are 8bp and 10bps higher as the yield curve twists steeper) as traders reacted to the possibility that Trump will try to remove Powell. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 1.3% and Nasdaq futures slide 1.5% with Mag7 names under pressure with INTC/NFLX among the bright spots in TMT. European stock markets were largely still shut for a public holiday. The dollar is set up to have its worst day in 2 weeks, plunging to a 15 month low, and sending precious metals soaring: gold was above $3400 at last check. Energy is weaker, Ags/base metals are higher. There is also trouble in trade deal  land with Japan pushing back on US demands for its trade deal, while China warns trading partners against mistreatment in any deal made with the US. It's a quiet day with just the Leading index on today's calendar (10am); Fed's Goolsbee speaks at 8:30am.

In premarket trading, the Mag 7 are lower, with Tesla the top decliner: TSLA plunged 4% after Wedbush analyst and a Tesla bull Dan Ives warns of a “code red” moment ahead of first-quarter earnings (the rest are also hurting NVDA -3.1%, META -1.3%, AAPL -2%, AMZN -1.7%, GOOGL -1.3% and MSFT -0.9%). Netflix climbed 2.4% after the streaming giant reported record profit to start the year, allaying concerns of a slowdown or fears the streaming leader might be hurt by growing economic uncertainty. Here are some other notable movers:

  • Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) rises 2.7% after receiving approval from US regulators to buy Discover Financial Services, a deal that creates the nation’s biggest credit-card issuer by loan volume. Discover (DFS) gains 5%.
  • Salesforce (CRM) declines 1.5% after D.A. Davidson downgraded the software company, saying it’s neglecting its core business to pursue a “premature” AI opportunity.
  • Spotify (SPOT) climbs 1% after Wolfe Research upgraded its rating, saying there “multiple paths to improved monetization.”
  • Taiwan Semiconductor ADRs (TSM) drop 1.9% after the company listed challenges of ensuring export control compliance.

Trump, rightfully frustrated that the central bank hasn’t moved to lower interest rates as even BofA's Michael Hartnett noted over the weekend... 

Fed cut 50bps in Sept when stock market at record high, Atlanta Fed was forecasting +3% US GDP growth; Fed now determined not to cut rates after 20% market plunge, Atlanta Fed forecasting -3% GDP growth

... posted on social media last week that Powell’s “termination cannot come fast enough!” and on Friday, Trump top economic advisor Kevin Hassett said the president is studying whether he’s able to fire Powell.

Rebuking the Fed undermines the principle of central bank independence and risks politicizing US monetary policy in a way that markets will find deeply unsettling, said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “Frankly, firing Powell stretches belief,” said Wong. “If the credibility of the Fed is called into question, it could severely erode confidence in the dollar.” 

Trump would put the credibility of the dollar on the line and destabilize the US economy if he fired Powell, French Finance Minister Eric Lombard warned. Fed Chicago President Austan Goolsbee warned against efforts to curtail the central bank’s independence. “There’s virtual unanimity among economists that monetary independence from political interference, that the Fed or any central bank be able to do the job that it needs to do, is really important,” Goolsbee said on CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday.

In a sign that investors are rotating investments away from the US, Deutsche Bank AG said that Chinese clients have reduced some of their Treasuries holdings in favor of European debt. European high-quality bonds, Japanese government bonds and gold are likely to be the potential choices for investors as alternatives to Treasuries, said Lillian Tao, head of China macro and global emerging market sales at the bank.

In tariff news, China’s largest shipping line, Cosco Shipping, said the US plans to impose levies on Chinese vessels docking at US ports would erode stability in global trade and supply chains. China has vowed to use its big market to help companies cope with “external shocks.” Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party is said to be set to make an emergency proposal in the wake of the US tariffs, urging the government to strengthen loan support for companies and boost domestic demand.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slid 0.8% on Monday to a 9 month low, its worst day in 2 weeks. Every Group-of-10 currency gained against the greenback. The jump in the yen weighed on stock indexes in Japan, pushing the Nikkei 225 down 1.3%. The yen, euro and Swiss franc rallied. Brent fell as much as 2% to below $67 a barrel.

In rates, the Treasury yield curve steepened  with two-year notes rallying as longer maturities tumbled. That suggests investors are betting on the chance of interest rate cuts and reflecting concerns over long-term US assets. The Treasury curve pivots around a near unchanged 5-year sector, with the twist steepening move widening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 6.5bp and 6bp on the day, adding to Thursday’s steepening momentum. US 10-year yields trade around 4.40%, cheaper by 8bp vs. Thursday close. According to Bloomberg, price action continues around a narrative of declining dollar and US stock futures amid continued concerns that President Donald Trump will fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Added premium for Fed cuts seen in front-end, where swaps now price around 90bp of easing for the year vs. 85bp priced last week. European markets also shut for Easter Monday.  Treasury auctions resume Tuesday with $69 billion 2-year notes, followed by $70 billion 5-year and $44 billion 7-year Wednesday and Thursday.

In commodities, oil retreated as traders fretted over the impact of the US-led trade war on energy demand, while sings of progress in talks between Washington and Tehran eased concerns about supplies from Iran. WTI crude traded down 2.4% to $62.50, erasing much of Friday's gain. Meanwhile gold continues to print record highs, rising above $3400 amid collapsing confidence in fiat currencies.

But while gold's surge was to be expected, the most notable move overnight is that bitcoin finally snapped higher, breaking its recent correlation with the dollar (and inverse correlation with the yen due to its carry trade funding), and surged above $87,000, suggesting a sharp move higher in bitcoin may be imminent, especially once other central banks start easing to offset the collapse in the USD.

US economic calendar includes March Leading index at 10am. This week also includes manufacturing PMI, durable goods orders and University of Michigan sentiment. Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee at 8:30am. This week also includes Jefferson, Harker, Kashkari, Barkin, Kugler, Musalem, Waller and Hammack

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini -1.1%, 
  • Nasdaq 100 mini -1.3%, 
  • Russell 2000 mini -0.9%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 -0.1%
  • DAX -0.5%
  • CAC 40 -0.6%
  • 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.36%
  • VIX +3.2 points at 32.81
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index -1% at 1212.42
  • euro +1.5% at $1.1566
  • WTI crude -2.7% at $62.94/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • The dollar slumped on Monday (lowest level since December 2023) as investors responded to mounting uncertainty over US economic policy following Trump’s attacks on Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell. The moves came after Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said Trump would “continue to study” the matter of dismissing Powell. The President had claimed on Thurs that he had the right to fire the Fed chair. FT
  • Pete Hegseth shared sensitive plans about Yemen strikes in a Signal chat with his wife, brother and personal lawyer, the NYT reported. NYT
  • China has warned countries against making trade deals with the U.S. that could hurt China’s interests, in response to news reports that said the Trump administration planned to pressure nations to limit trade with Beijing in exchange for tariff exemptions. WSJ
  • China has stopped buying LNG from the US in the latest sign of economic decoupling between the two countries (Chinese purchases have been dwindling for months, but have now come to a complete halt). NYT
  • In response to pressure from the Chinese government, Chinese state-backed funds are cutting off new investment in US private equity in the latest salvo against Trump’s trade war. FT
  • Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Russia of violating a 30-hour truce and reiterated his proposal for an extension. BBG
  • South Korea has found increased attempts to disguise foreign products as Korean exports, primarily from China, to avoid U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, its customs agency said on Monday. The Korea Customs Service said it has found 29.5 billion won ($20.81 million) worth of violations related to country of origin from the first quarter, with U.S.-bound shipments accounting for 97% of the total, after a special probe last month. RTRS
  • Japan’s PM Shigeru Ishiba said his country won’t concede to all US demands in levy talks. BBG
  • Japan’s ruling party will today propose emergency measures in response to US tariffs, including loan support and boosting demand. The draft proposal criticizes the tariffs as undermining free trade.

US Event Calendar

  • 10:00 am: Mar Leading Index, est. -0.5%, prior -0.3%

Central Banks:

  • 8:30 am: Fed’s Goolsbee Appears on CNBC
Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 08:25

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