Bitcoin No Longer Plays Gold's Game

Authored by Armando Aguilar via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin was treated as a purely inert asset for years: a decentralized vault, economically passive despite its fixed issuance schedule. Yet more than $7 billion worth of Bitcoin already earns native, onchain yield via major protocols — that premise is breaking down. 

Gold’s ~$23-trillion market cap mostly sits idle. Bitcoin, by contrast, now earns onchain, while holders keep custody.

As new layers unlock returns, Bitcoin crosses a structural threshold: from merely passive to productively scarce.

That change is quietly redefining how capital prices risk, how institutions allocate reserves and how portfolio theory accounts for safety. Scarcity may explain price stability. Still, productivity explains why miners, treasuries and funds are now parking assets in BTC rather than just building around it.

A vault asset that earns yield isn’t digital gold anymore — it’s productive capital.

Scarcity matters, but productivity rules

Bitcoin’s economic DNA hasn’t changed: The supply remains capped at 21 million, the issuance schedule is transparent, and no central authority can inflate or censor it. Scarcity, auditability and resistance to manipulation always set Bitcoin apart, but in 2025, these differentiating and unique factors started to mean something more.

As the issuance rate is locked, even as new protocol layers allow BTC to generate onchain returns, Bitcoin is now gaining traction for what it will enable. A new set of tools gives holders the ability to earn real yield without giving up custody, relying on centralized platforms and altering the base protocol. It leaves Bitcoin’s core mechanics untouched but changes how capital engages with the asset.

We’re already seeing that effect in practice. Bitcoin is the only crypto asset officially held in sovereign reserves: El Salvador continues to allocate BTC in its national treasury, and a 2025 US executive order recognized Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for critical infrastructure. Meanwhile, spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) now hold over 1.26 million BTC — more than 6% of the total supply. 

Also on the mining side, public miners are no longer rushing to sell. Instead, a growing share allocates BTC into staking and synthetic yield strategies to improve long-term returns.

It’s becoming evident that the original value proposition has evolved subtly in design but profoundly in effect. What once made Bitcoin trustworthy now also makes it powerful — a once passive asset is becoming a yield-producing asset. This lays the foundation for what comes next: a native yield curve that forms around Bitcoin itself, not to mention Bitcoin‑linked assets.

Bitcoin earns without giving up control

Until recently, the idea of earning a return on crypto seemed out of reach. In Bitcoin’s case, it was hard to find non-custodial yield, at least without compromising its base-layer neutrality. But that assumption no longer holds. Today, new protocol layers let holders put BTC to work in ways once limited to centralized platforms.

Some platforms let long-term holders stake native BTC to help secure the network while earning yield, without wrapping the asset or moving it across chains. In turn, others allow users to use their Bitcoin in decentralized finance apps, earning fees from swaps and lending without giving up ownership. And the catch is that none of these systems require handing over keys to a third party, and none rely on the kind of opaque yield games that caused problems in the past.

At this point, it’s clear that this is no longer pilot-scale. In addition, miner-aligned strategies are quietly gaining traction among firms looking to boost treasury efficiency without leaving the Bitcoin ecosystem. As a result, a yield curve native to Bitcoin and grounded in transparency is starting to take shape.

Once Bitcoin yield becomes accessible and self-custodied, another problem emerges: How do you measure it? If protocols are becoming available and accessible, then clarity is missing. Because without a standard to describe what productive BTC earns, investors, treasuries and miners are left making decisions in the dark.

Time to benchmark Bitcoin yield

If Bitcoin can earn a return, then the next logical step is a straightforward way to measure it.

Right now, there’s no standard. Some investors see BTC as hedge capital; others put it to work and collect yield. However, there are inconsistencies in what the actual benchmark to measure Bitcoin should be, as there are no real comparable assets. For example, a treasury team might lock coins for a week but doesn’t have a simple way to explain the risk, or a miner might route rewards into a yield strategy but still treat it as treasury diversification. 

Consider a mid-sized decentralized autonomous organization with 1,200 BTC and six months of payroll ahead. It puts half into a 30-day vault on a Bitcoin-secured protocol and earns yield. But without a baseline, the team can’t say whether that’s a cautious move or a risky one. The same choice might be praised as clever treasury work or criticized as yield-chasing, depending on who analyzes the approach.

What Bitcoin needs is a benchmark. Not a “risk‑free rate” in the bond market sense, but a baseline: repeatable, self-custodied and onchain yield that can be generated natively on Bitcoin, net of fees, grouped by term lengths — seven days, 30, 90. Just enough structure to turn yield from guesswork into something that can be referenced and used as a benchmark.

Once that exists, treasury policies, disclosures and strategies can be built around it, and everything above that baseline can be priced for what it is: risk worth taking or not.

That’s where the metaphor with gold breaks down. Gold doesn’t pay you — productive Bitcoin does. The longer treasuries treat BTC like a vault trinket with no return, the easier it is to see who’s managing capital — and who’s simply storing it.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 08:00

Opioids More Likely To Kill Than Car Crashes Or Suicide

The National Safety Council reports that Americans are more likely to die from an opioid overdose than a car crash or suicide.

As Statista';s Katharina Buchholz shows in the following chart, the likelihood of dying from opioid use in the U.S. increased from lifetime odds of one in 96 in 2017 to one in 57 in 2023 (down from one in 55 in 2022).

The same year, someone living in the U.S. only had one in 87 odds of dying of suicide and a one in 95 chance of dying in a car crash.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Potent and deadly synthetic opioid fentanyl - which is often mixed with heroin without the knowledge of drug users - contributed to this dismal development together with the ongoing crisis of prescription pain killer misuse.

The U.S. experienced 105,000 overdose deaths in 2023, down from 2022 after a severe uptick during the coronavirus pandemic.

The most likely cause of death in the U.S. continues to be heart disease with lifetime odds of 1 in 6, followed by cancer and stroke.

Covid-19 lifetime odds were similar to those of stroke in previous years, but are no longer reported by the source.

Despite being a common fear, the chances of dying due to gun assault stand at only one in 238, but are still greater than drowning or choking to death, which have odds of around one in 1,000 and one in 2,500, respectively.

Dying in a dog attack remains highly unlikely with the chances of that happening at one in 44,499.

Dying in a hurricane or tornado or any other storm event is actually more likely at one in 39,192.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 07:20

Russia Gears Up For New Nuclear Missile Test

Authored by RFE/RL Staff via OilPrice.com,

• Significant activity on Russia's Novaya Zemlya archipelago indicates an impending test of the nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile, known as Skyfall by NATO.

• The Burevestnik, a complex system designed to carry a nuclear warhead and evade missile defenses, has a history of development failures, including a deadly explosion in 2019.

• The timing of the potential test, along with high-level Russian military and nuclear official visits, suggests the missile is nearing operational deployment, driven by Russia's desire for prestige and defense against US missile shields.

It's been a busy few weeks up on the windswept Russian archipelago of Novaya Zemlya: people, earthmoving trucks, shipping containers, temporary housing, heavy-lift aircraft, helicopters, cargo ships.

The activity shows up in satellite imagery, aircraft hazard notifications, ship transponder trackers, and open-source intelligence reporting at a time when long Arctic days and good weather mean favorable conditions for building projects at the Pankovo test range and nearby air base.

The betting money for close watchers of Russian weapons development is on another test of a trouble-plagued, nuclear-powered cruise missile called the Burevestnik.

"The operational sites for this system are almost complete. This is going to be an operational system pretty soon here," said Decker Eveleth, a researcher at the suburban Washington-based Center for Naval Analyses, who examined satellite imagery of the sites in July and August. "This may have been the final check before operational testing and evaluation."

"They're clearly pretty far long," he said.

"I wouldn't be surprised if the test has already happened," said Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based arms control researcher and expert on Russia's nuclear forces.

The missile, dubbed Skyfall by NATO, has been under development for more than a decade now. It's one of several new systems Russian designers have focused on as the Kremlin pours money into weapons development as part of a not fully recognized arms race -- mainly against the United States.

Others include the Sarmat international continental ballistic missile, a nuclear-powered, nuclear-tipped torpedo called Poseidon, and a hypersonic missile called Avangard.

Russian President Vladimir Putin talked up many of the weapons elaborate public ceremonies in 2018 and 2019. Two of the new weapons, the Kinzhal and Tsirkon missiles, have been used in Ukraine. The Sarmat has also been tested, though last year it suffered a major mishap.

The Burevestnik has drawn particular attention from arms control and intelligence experts, partly because of the technology but also its past failures.

The missile is powered essentially by a small nuclear reactor built into the engine, theoretically enabling it to stay aloft for days.

It "would carry a nuclear warhead; circle the globe at low altitude, avoid missile defenses, and dodge terrain; and drop the warhead at a difficult-to-predict location," according to a 2019 report by the Washington-based Nuclear Threat Initiative.

U.S. intelligence reports say the missile has been tested at least a dozen times, including in 2017 and 2019.

Death At Nyonoksa

Among the places Russia has tested the Burevestnik is the White Sea, west of the city of Arkhangelsk, near the port of Severodvinsk.

In August 2019, while trying to raise a Burevestnik from the seabed near the town of Nyonoksa, an explosion occurred that spewed radiation over a wide area, including Severodvinsk. The blast also killed at least five Russian nuclear specialists from the state-owned nuclear company Rosatom, which is believed to have spearheaded the Burevestnik's development.

The explosion, US officials later concluded, "was the result of a nuclear reaction that occurred during the recovery of a Russian nuclear-powered cruise missile."

Two years earlier, another missile, also believed to be a Burevestnik, crashed somewhere in the Barents Sea, west of Novaya Zemlya, according to US intelligence officials.

"They've been developing this system for well over a decade. And it hasn't really gone very well for a long time," Eveleth said. "People died…and they didn't give up. They kept going for it…. They kept going for it for 15 years. And they are really dedicated to it."

Constant Phoenix, Nuke Sniffing

The activity at Pankovo in late July was highlighted in part by Eveleth and Jeffrey Lewis of Middlebury's Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California. Burevestnik testing was moved out of the White Sea following the Nyonoksa accident and resumed in 2021 on Novaya Zemlya, which is more remote.

In early August, Russian authorities also released a NOTAM, according to the Barents Observer newspaper, which first reported the advisory. NOTAMs are internally recognized advisories for aircraft -- a warning for pilots and ship captains, in this case, to avoid a wide area west of Novaya Zemlya.

Meanwhile, an unusually large number of fighter jets, cargo jets, and helicopters appeared parked at the Rogachevo air base on the southwestern coast of Novaya Zemlya. The aircraft appeared to include an A-50, an airborne radar and warning system experts say is rarely seen so far north; and Il-76 SKIPs, jets designed to gather electronic signals and missile telemetry data.

Open-source aircraft trackers also noted a US Air Force WC-135 jet in the airspace north of the Kola Peninsula and west of Novaya Zemlya. Known as Constant Phoenix, the jet is designed to gather samples of airborne particles to detect specific radioactive isotopes released from nuclear weapons tests.

The most recent satellite imagery, Eveleth said, suggests Russian workers have now packed up equipment on Novaya Zemlya, indicating, he said, that a test had been conducted.

'Why Is This Such a Big Deal?'

The timing for a test was also auspicious from the point of view of Russian messaging, Lewis said in a podcast released August 20, coming around the time that Putin met US President Donald Trump for a summit in Alaska.

Another bit of evidence came on August 22 when Putin traveled to the central city of Sarov. Formerly a closed city known as Arzamas-16, Sarov has for decades been the heart of the Soviet and Russian nuclear programs: "the equivalent of Los Alamos," Podvig said, referring to the home of the US atomic weapons program.

Among the dignitaries greeting Putin on the tarmac at Sarov was the chairman of Russia's General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, as well as Sergei Kiriyenko, who headed Rosatom until 2016, when he took a top post in the Kremlin.

"The combination of all these things -- the test activity, the apparent preparation for deployment, and this visit -- again this would be a good occasion for Putin, for the Sarov [engineers] to demonstrate that this is what we've done, we've fulfilled the assignment," Podvig said.

"Why is this such a big deal for them?" Eveleth said. "First, the sophistication and prestige of the Russian nuclear arsenal is very important" to Putin and his government.

"Second, they're worried about [US] missile defenses, they want to hedge against an effective missile shield and this system is technically capable of evading certain systems," he said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 06:40

My end of Summer, welcome to September, Labor Day morning reads:

• Is summer getting longer where you live? In recent decades, sweat-inducing temperatures have been arriving earlier and ending later in the year. An analysis of U.S. weather data shows which places are experiencing notably longer summer seasons than they were three decades ago. Temperatures are spiking to levels typically seen in June earlier than expected and lingering longer at the end of the season. (Washington Post)

• US Trading Partners ‘Dazed and Confused’ After Tariff Court Loss: A federal appeals court ruled that President Trump’s global tariffs were issued illegally under an emergency law, upholding a May ruling by the Court of International Trade. The ruling applies to Trump’s “Liberation Day” global tariffs and affects the extra levies on Mexico, China, and Canada, with a final ruling against the tariffs potentially upending Trump’s trade deals. gift article (Bloomberg) see also Bessent on Tariffs, Deficits and Embracing Trump’s Economic Plan: The US Treasury secretary has the ear of an impulsive president—and nervous investors worldwide hope it stays that way. An exclusive interview. (Bloomberg)

• Scrolling instead of working? YouTuber Hank Green’s new app wants to help: Can a smiley cartoon bean help you stay focused? Hank Green, one of the earliest and most influential online creators, hopes so. The app, called Focus Friend, features a smiling cartoon bean that encourages users to boost their productivity. (NBC News)

• AI ‘deadbots’ are persuasive — and researchers say they’re primed for monetization: AI avatars of deceased people — or “deadbots” — are showing up in new and unexpected contexts, including ones where they have the power to persuade. (NPR)

• Inside Bridgehampton, the Most Expensive Place to Buy a Home in New York: The Hamptons enclave draws well-to-do buyers to its sandy beaches, small-town charm and diverse housing stock. (Wall Street Journal) see also Can’t Afford a House? Try Baltic Avenue. It’s getting harder to become a homeowner. But in Monopoly, The Game of Life and The Sims, the rules are simple: Play your cards right, and you’ll get a house.(New York Times)

• The Glorious Future of the Book: It’s still the best data center of them all.  (The Honest Broker)

• Scientists can make an enormous difference in the world. Counting lives saved is difficult, but it can show us the great difference some people have made. (Our World In Data)

• One Universal Antiviral to Rule Them All? Taking inspiration from a rare mutation that makes people impervious to viral diseases, a Columbia researcher is developing a therapy that could bestow this superpower on the rest of us. (Columbia / Irving Medical Center) see also What Does It Take to Get Men to See a Doctor? Men in the United States live around five years less than women. One clinic is trying to persuade men that getting checked out could save their life. (New York Times)

• What brain surgery taught me about the fragile gift of consciousness: After the trauma of a high-risk medical procedure, Eric Markowitz discovered a kind of consciousness that lives not in thought — but in presence. (Big Think)

• The Cracks in America’s Rule of Law Are Getting Deeper: Court battles over the administration’s sweeping use of executive power are exposing limits on how much judges can constrain the presidency. (Bloomberg)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody’s Corp. Dr. Zandi is a cofounder of Economy.com, which Moody’s purchased in 2005. He currently hosts the “Inside Economics” podcast.

 

Existing homes are now more expensive than new ones… That’s not normal.

Source: Sherwood

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Labor Day Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

These Are The Countries With The Largest Christian Populations

There are 2.2 billion Christians in the world, which means one out of every four people is a Christian.

The visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Pallavi Rao, compares the 25 countries with the largest Christian populations, revealing how demographic trends, migration, and conversion have shaped Christianity’s current global footprint.

The data for this ranking comes from the CIA World Factbook, Pew Research and UN World Population Prospects.

Estimated religious shares between 2020–2024 from the first two sources are applied to 2025 population figures to arrive at an estimated for number of Christians in each country.

The Americas Are Christianity Central

With more than 219 million Christians, the U.S. remains the single largest Christian nation.

Although its Christian share has fallen for decades, the overall population continues to grow, keeping the country firmly at the top of the list.

Note: Includes all denominations.

Brazil (169 million) and Mexico (118 million) rank second and third.

Both countries have historically been Catholic strongholds, though Brazil has witnessed a rapid rise in evangelical denominations over the past generation.

Together, the three giants account for nearly a quarter of all Christians worldwide.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s is Reshaping the Christian Faith

Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, and Kenya illustrate Christianity’s fast-growing presence south of the Sahara.

Nigeria alone has about 109 million Christians, almost equal to the entire population of the Philippines.

High fertility rates and youthful demographics mean Africa’s share of global Christians will keep rising well past 2050.

Most of these African nations also have large non-Christian populations.

Nigeria is almost evenly split between Christians and Muslims, while Ethiopia’s Christian majority coexists with a sizable Muslim minority.

Minority Christian Communities in Population Giants

China and India appear in the ranking despite Christians making up only 5% and 2% of their populations, respectively.

Sheer population size—over 1.4 billion people each—translates into tens of millions of believers even when Christianity is a small minority.

The presence of 72 million Chinese and 34 million Indian Christians underscores how religious minorities can still represent significant global communities.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Ranked: Countries With the Largest Muslim Populations on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 06:00

Conservatives Rage After UK Court Of Appeal Rules With Govt To Keep Migrant Hotel Open

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The British government has won its legal fight against a local council that sought to shut down a migrant hotel in Essex.

The Court of Appeal ruled on Friday that a temporary injunction obtained by Epping Forest District Council against the continued use of the Bell Hotel to house asylum seekers should be overturned.

During the hearing, Home Office lawyers argued that the human rights of asylum seekers outweighed the council’s decision to close the hotel. The council had insisted that Somani Hotels, which owns the Bell Hotel, was in breach of planning law by changing its use to accommodate migrants. But the judges found that the lower court, which granted the injunction, had made errors that “undermine his decision.”

The ruling lifts the interim injunction and scraps a Sept. 12 deadline for asylum seekers to be relocated. A final appeal hearing will take place later this year.

The hotel has been at the center of controversy in recent months after anti-immigration protests erupted in the town, following the arrest of one of its occupants on suspicion of sexually assaulting a 14-year-old schoolgirl.

The Court of Appeal’s decision has sparked anger among opposition lawmakers, who accused Labour of prioritizing the rights of illegal immigrants over the safety of local communities.

Robert Jenrick, the Conservatives’ shadow justice secretary, posted: “Starmer’s government has shown itself to be on the side of illegal migrants who have broken into our country.”

Rupert Lowe, an MP and leader of Restore Britain, wrote: “A Government against its own people. No more appeals, court cases, or debates. We must deport the illegal migrants. Not some of them. Not most of them. All of them.” He later called for the Home Office to be abolished.

Abolish the Home Office and start again.

A new department, staffed with British patriots who believe in secure borders and mass deportations.

— Rupert Lowe MP (@RupertLowe10) August 29, 2025

Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservative Party, said the ruling was a setback but vowed to keep fighting: “Local communities should not pay the price for Labour’s total failure on illegal immigration. This ruling is a setback, but it is not the end. I say to Conservative councils seeking similar injunctions against asylum hotels – keep going! Every case has different circumstances, and I know good Conservative councils will keep fighting for residents, so we will keep working with them every step of the way.”

My statement on the Epping migrant hotel injunction decision. pic.twitter.com/FjWYvLgHcO

— Kemi Badenoch (@KemiBadenoch) August 29, 2025

Ben Habib, leader of Advance UK, echoed the anger: “He says he wants to shut illegal migrant hotels, but Keir Starmer fights tooth and nail to keep them open. Against the wishes of local residents and the local authority, the Epping hotel will now stay open. So much for democracy and the security of British citizens.”

Kelvin MacKenzie, former editor of The Sun, went further, alleging judicial bias: “No surprise Lord Justice Bean, a Labour Party member for 28 years, has in his Appeal Court judgment, stopped the 128 migrants being kicked out of the Bell Hotel in Epping. The law and Labour are in lockstep. A migrant has more rights than a British citizen. A serious moment.”

No surprise Lord Justice Bean, a Labour Party member for 28 years, has in his Appeal Court judgment, stopped the 128 migrants being kicked out of the Bell Hotel in Epping.
The law and Labour are in lockstep. A migrant has more rights than a British citizen. A serious moment.

— Kelvin MacKenzie (@kelvmackenzie) August 29, 2025

A full trial to determine the future of the hotel will take place in October.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 05:20

How The European Central Bank Engineered The French Debt-Crisis... And The Next

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The French debt crisis reminds us that gradualism never works, that statism always ends in ruin and that those countries that bet on more government and higher taxes always end in stagnation, risk of default and social unrest.

France’s government debt-to-GDP exceeds 114%. However, unfunded committed pension liabilities reach 400% of GDP, according to Eurostat. The fiscal deficit announced for this year is 5.4%, but market consensus maintains an expectation of 5.8%. The five-year credit default risk has risen by 20% in twelve months. The yield on French two-year debt exceeds that of Spain, Italy, and Greece, and its risk premium to Germany has reached 80 basis points—20 above that of Spain.

The problem in the euro area is that all the mainstream claps when a government inflates GDP with massive government spending and public sector jobs as well as immigration, disguising persistent fiscal imbalances and declining productivity growth. Furthermore, Keynesian analysts ignore the crowding out of the private sector and the harmful impact of high taxes on long-term public accounts’ sustainability.

I am old enough to remember when the mainstream media hailed Greece as the engine of growth in the eurozone when it was bloating GDP with massive government spending and public sector jobs. Greece was hailed as “safeguarding high economic growth” and “leading the euro area recovery” in 2005 and 2006 by the IMF and the European Commission publications. Headlines and policy reports widely acknowledged Greece’s economic achievements as an example of strong leadership within the euro area. We all know what happened in 2008.

We cannot forget that the European Central Bank has been instrumental in creating the perverse incentives for politicians to maintain and increase elevated spending and fiscal imbalances.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has, over the past decade, deployed a policy toolkit of unprecedented scale—including repeated rate cuts, negative nominal rates, the controversial anti-fragmentation tool, and de facto debt monetisation—designed to safeguard the eurozone’s stability. Yet, for all the rhetoric of stability and independence, these measures have created powerful incentives for fiscal recklessness, eroding the very foundations of European monetary credibility and planting the seeds of today’s sovereign debt crises, including the current French debt debacle.

ECB policy rates, once anchored to discipline both sovereign and private borrowing, have plummeted from above 4% in 2008 to negative territory and have remained in negative real territory for years. Furthermore, the ECB’s asset purchase programmes, expanded during crises under initiatives like the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) and the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT), have saturated bond markets with central bank money and generated an enormous crowding-out effect that penalises credit to families and businesses and disguises solvency issues of public sector issuers.

The anti-fragmentation tool, designed to contain the “spread” between the core and periphery country bonds, takes this issue further: by promising open-ended intervention, the ECB reassures markets that it will backstop sovereign debt at virtually any price, diluting the discipline that risk premia once imposed on profligate governments. In fact, it could be considered a pro-squandering tool, as it benefits those countries with poor fiscal compliance and penalises those who reign in debt and deficits.

While these interventions immediately calm markets, they foster a mindset of indifference in governments, leading them to consistently increase their spending. Thus, many governments, like Spain’s, brag about the low interest rates and spread of their debt despite rising imbalances and worsening public accounts. The anti-fragmentation tool and negative nominal rates destroy the market mechanism that should serve as an essential warning for reckless fiscal policy. Member states, assured of cheap funding and endless ECB support, have little incentive to reform bloated budgets or contain deficits, especially when electorally costly. The persistent threat warned by German policymakers, that ECB actions are subsidising “fiscal freeloading” in high-debt member states, is becoming a reality.

The most dramatic case is France. The French government’s debt has soared above 114% of GDP in 2025, driven in part by persistent large deficits covered cheaply under the ECB’s umbrella. Attempts at fiscal consolidation have always been timid and thus have failed to achieve lasting discipline, with ECB support always in the background as a failsafe. The result is a mounting sovereign risk premium: French bonds, for the first time in modern euro history, now yield more than comparably rated Spanish, Greek, or Italian bonds, signalling the market’s discomfort with France’s debt trajectory even in the age of ECB backstops. The fact that this rise in spreads happens in the middle of a large stimulus plan (Next Generation EU) and rate cuts is even more alarming.

The so-called anti-fragmentation instrument, meant as a crisis containment tool, is inherently a mechanism of “joint liability without joint control”. It binds prudent euro members to the fiscal choices of their less disciplined partners, socialising risk but nationalising rewards. With this facility, markets can no longer efficiently discriminate; anxiety about debt sustainability that once spurred necessary reforms is suppressed rather than solved. Furthermore, it is like debt mutualisation with no real obligations.

The “whatever it takes” philosophy, so lauded by ECB leaders, is now a double-edged sword: it has replaced accountability with dependency and emboldened fiscal laxity.

Central bank purchases and the suppression of yields to nominal negative territory are, by definition, the worst case of debt monetisation. The ECB is a loss-making entity because it purchases bonds even when they are exceedingly expensive. The ECB’s accumulated unrealised paper losses on its asset purchase programmes are estimated at €800 billion, vastly exceeding its capital, according to IERF.

These policies are disguising solvency problems even if dressed in the language of emergency support. This removes the ultimate deterrent to government overspending: the cost of money itself. The long-term result is an environment in which euro area governments, aware that refinancing is guaranteed at low cost even during difficult times, accumulate increasingly larger debts—making the bloc vulnerable to even minor shocks in confidence, inflation, or governance. This situation could likely harm the euro in the future if Germany falls into the same trap as France, a scenario that seems probable given the latest policy announcements.

If you read newspapers in France, this perverse incentive is very evident. Instead of talking about the unsustainable spending path, many demand more central bank purchases and stimulus. Furthermore, some demand the acceleration of the digital euro to implement even more aggressive monetary measures.

The unfolding French debt crisis is a direct byproduct of these policies. France’s spending has persistently outstripped growth, yet the promise of perennial ECB support delayed any reckoning. Now, as risk premia rise and markets test the ECB’s resolve, the eurozone faces the bitter consequences of a policy era marked by moral hazard and eroded fiscal discipline.

While ECB activism may buy temporary stability, its long-term cost is clear: higher debts, private sector weakening, currency debasement, and the erosion of incentives for responsible policymaking. Unless Europe rethinks its reliance on central bank eternal stimuli and restores mechanisms for market discipline, today’s French crisis may be only one of many fiscal storms ahead. The success of the euro as a reserve currency was based on the pillar of fiscal prudence and responsibility. Lack of fiscal discipline always means a risk for the currency.

Central banks cannot print solvency, and the lack of structural reforms and excessive easing policies can end up destroying the euro.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 04:40

Hungary Unleashes Major Drug-Prevention Task-Force To Safeguard 'The Fabric Of Society'

Via Remix News,

Major General Sándor Töreki, Hungary’s deputy chief of police for criminal matters, has revealed that the Delta action program launched this year has led to a large-scale, offensive professional action to detect drug-related crimes, reports Mandiner. He highlighted that thousands of procedures have been initiated, significant quantities of drugs have been seized, and significant financial assets and assets have been seized from the perpetrators of the crimes. 

The program has been running for six months, and according to Sándor Töreki, professional evaluations are currently underway, and the results will be presented in the near future. 

Prevention, noted the general, is also playing an important role, for which a professional program has been developed. 

“Not only does the school year start on September 1st, but so does drug prevention.”

At a drug prevention press conference this morning, he noted how drug use and drug distribution destroy the fabric of society, that drugs tear apart human communities, and destroy the security of society as a whole. 

Mass consumption of designer drugs has appeared in medium-sized and small settlements across Hungary.

According to the general, the police want to be the driving force behind drug prevention activities. The program will also call upon civilians, as they also need to carry out drug prevention in schools. So far, 3,049 police officers are participating in the REDP program, which school guards are also joining.

With more than 200 million forints available for prevention, Sándor Töreki said that the target audience of the program is students, teachers and parents. They will participate in professional workshops, where the harmful effects of drug use will be presented. Any work done in educational institutions will be constantly monitored and measured via questionnaires. 

There will also be joint programs with prisons, and authorities are continuously investigating what drug prevention programs exist in neighboring countries to learn from them as well. 

According to László Horváth, the government commissioner responsible for the eradication of drug trafficking, strict action is essential, and strict legislation is needed. The goal is to “protect children and ensure their development,” he said. 

According to the politician, drugs now pose a direct threat to all youth, and dealers have also targeted areas around schools. He said that the domestic drug situation has changed recently and a new program is needed, as he highlighted: “The key is to act quickly.” 

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 04:00

The Harsh Truth About Life In Canada Today

Authored by Mikkel Thorup via InternationalMan.com,

Canada is often portrayed as a land of freedom, opportunity, and prosperity. Reality, however, tells a different story...

Statist policies, crushing taxes, bloated bureaucracy, and a society overtaken by woke ideology have shattered Canada. This is a cautionary tale for those looking at Canada as an ideal living space. If you are asking yourself what living in Canada is like, let me explain: Canada is not a land of fulfilled dreams but of enduring harsh conditions and barely getting by.

As if economic hardships aren’t enough, Canadians are also oppressed by the Orwellian newspeak that woke culture is creating. If you speak your mind, you’re labeled a fascist. If you question social policies, you’re accused of microaggressions.

There are no best places to live in Canada anymore. As a Canadian, I see little chance of Canada becoming livable again. Since I founded Expat Money in 2017, I have been helping expats build their Plan-Bs to protect their wealth and freedom and leave countries like this one.

Let’s look at the unfortunate condition that Canada has fallen into.

The Restrictions Imposed During Covid

The strict quarantine measures and harsh government interventions implemented in Canada during the COVID-19 hysteria were shameful. The government expanded police and administrative powers to smash public backlash against its COVID policies.

A significant protest movement called The Freedom Convoy began in early 2022. Truckers and citizens held large demonstrations in Ottawa against vaccination mandates, harsh pandemic restrictions, and the government’s authoritarian tendencies.

Former Prime Minister Trudeau used extraordinary powers to freeze the bank accounts of protesters and crack down on activists. Individual and property rights were arbitrarily violated.

The Canadian government imposed mandatory vaccinations on federal employees, healthcare workers, and those in the transportation sector, turning personal health decisions into state mandates. Those who were not vaccinated were suspended from their jobs, their travel rights were restricted, and they were ostracized from society. Even the private sector was coerced to impose vaccinations under government pressure.

Moreover, harsh lockdowns and restricted entry into the country forced businesses into bankruptcy. Massive numbers of people lost their jobs, and the government’s financial structure was severely damaged.

Woke Culture And The End Of Free Speech

The problems aren’t limited to elections. In recent years, woke ideology has overtaken Canada’s politics, education system, and workplace. This “progressive” ideology has replaced individual freedoms and meritocracy with the so-called principle of inclusivity and equity. As a result, freedom of speech has been destroyed, social engineering has increased, and social polarization has deepened.

In Canada, laws enacted under the guise of “combatting hate speech” have imposed mandatory language use by the government, determining how individuals should speak.

Now, we have another Bill C-11 to update the Broadcasting Act. The government’s media watchdog, the CRTC, will now be able to monitor online platforms such as YouTube, TikTok, and Spotify. Bill C-11 is a censorship tool to kill free speech in Canada. The government may have sugar-coated the law by saying, “We support Canadian content,” but at its core, it’s an attempt to take control of the internet. The government deciding what content is “sufficiently Canadian” will soon become a matter of deciding what content is appropriate, approved, and safe.

What about Bill C-18? This is another example of an intervention that legislates internet censorship under the pretext of “protecting the independent press.” Bill C-18 requires internet platforms (especially companies like Google and Meta) to pay media outlets for news content. The government is turning content sharing into an economic penalty to extract money from big tech companies.

Because of this law, platforms like Google and Meta have decided to remove news content completely. In other words, the government’s move to “access information” has actually restricted access to information.

Similarly, due to cancel culture, academics, business people, and members of the media are censored, fired, and subject to social lynching when they voice different views. Diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies, especially in business and academic institutions, cause decisions to be made based on identity rather than merit. Canadian universities have been degraded from institutions that encourage intellectual freedom into ideological centres where a singular type of thinking is imposed. Companies must prioritize political correctness over efficiency and productivity in business life. Canada has shifted from a society based on individual freedom and voluntary cooperation to a system governed by the ideological impositions of the government.

Assisted Suicide And Moral Decline

Indicators of Canada’s political and economic collapse can also be traced to the individual level. The rapid increase in Medical Assistance in Dying (MAiD) applications in Canada has led to deep debate on personal freedoms, ethical values, ​​and the role of the state in the country.

Canada has the fastest-growing assisted suicide program in the world. When MAiD was legalized in 2016, it only included individuals with terminal illnesses. However, over time, the criteria were relaxed and expanded to include psychological disorders or illnesses that do not have a natural death period. In 2021, approximately 10,000 people ended their lives under MAiD. This number constitutes 3.3% of all deaths. Even people who were experiencing financial difficulties or housing problems resorted to euthanasia, causing heated arguments in the public domain.

In the face of all the challenges, assuming Canada has a functioning social welfare state would be unwise. Canada’s health system is seriously unreliable because of long waiting times, overburdened hospitals, and staff shortages.

Before moving to Canada, be mindful that you can wait months to years for doctor’s appointments and surgeries. The shortage of doctors and nurses severely disrupts health services. Excessive bureaucracy and limited private health services make the health system even more inefficient.

Federal Government Overreach

The federal government’s drama is not Canada’s only political issue. The political conflict between the federal and provincial governments is becoming a serious problem.

There are several main disagreements between the federal and provincial governments:

• First, the federal government’s carbon tax has drawn fierce criticism from energy-independent provinces such as Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Ontario.

• Second, the federal government demands that the provinces spend more on healthcare financing, while the provinces say they are underfunded and subject to excessive federal intervention.

• Third, immigration has exacerbated the housing crisis and the burden on public services in large provinces such as Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia. The provinces demand more funding, saying they shoulder much of the cost burden, but funding is unavailable.

• Fourth, the federal government’s policies restricting fossil fuel use continue to economically harm provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan, which depend on oil and gas.

It’s no surprise that many people in Alberta and the Prairie provinces responded positively to Trump’s annexation proposal. It reflects a deep and long-standing frustration with federal control over energy policy. At the same time, a grassroots “Make Alberta Great Again” movement is gaining real traction. Pro-separation initiatives are picking up momentum, with growing calls for a referendum on Alberta’s independence.

Even Bill 54, passed in May 2025, lowered the threshold required to trigger a referendum on the province’s sovereignty. Now it’s easier for separatist groups to push for a vote.

I was in Alberta last year and met with several people involved in the movement in person. We spoke at length about the political landscape, their frustrations, and their hopes for Alberta’s future. Many of them told me that, while they believe strongly in the cause, they also know how easily their involvement could make them political targets. That’s why they’re working on their Plan-B strategies to protect themselves and their families if things take a turn for the worse.

Over-Regulation And High Taxes

Strict government regulations and high tax rates in Canada negatively impact economic growth and entrepreneurship by increasing the financial burden on individuals and businesses.

Let me give you an example. Ontario’s total income tax payment can be as high as 53.5%. These high tax rates reduce the disposable income of individuals and businesses and restrict economic mobility. Under the guise of “Tax the rich” and “Pay your fair share,” the Canadian government began taxing capital gains over $250,000 CAD at up to 66.6% starting in 2024. Being an entrepreneur or creating economic productivity in Canada is one of the government’s favourite activities to punish.

High Cost Of Living

Rising real estate prices, the cost of essential consumer goods, and transportation have greatly increased the economic burden on individuals. Real estate prices have reached astronomical levels in cities like Vancouver and Toronto. This fact makes home ownership nearly impossible for the middle class. The lack of affordable housing options is threatening life in Canada.

With average home prices pushing $730,000 CAD ($536,000 USD), double-digit inflation on food and energy, and yet another round of carbon taxes, everyday life in Canada has become flat-out unaffordable. More and more people are waking up to the reality that they can live better, in places like Latin America, for a fraction of the cost and without being punished for simply trying to get ahead.

Most people seeking to migrate to Canada think about living in Toronto. The average rent for a one-bedroom apartment in Toronto is around $ 2,500 CAD ($1,700 USD). If your job is in Vancouver, the average rent for a one-bedroom apartment is around $2,700 CAD ($1,900 USD).

Living expenses in Toronto and Vancouver are sky-high, and if you’re hoping Montreal offers a more affordable alternative, you’ll be disappointed—it’s just as costly. Factor in additional expenses for your family, and Canada quickly becomes an impractical place to invest in or build your future. It is difficult to see the benefits of living there.

The rapid growth of Canada’s immigrant population has also become another socio-economic issue. Canada does not have a dynamic market economy that can absorb all immigrants without lowering the standard of living of other citizens. Therefore, economic difficulties have not only caused immigrants to become targets but also a threat to social peace.

Elections In Canada

Do you recall the political debate that flared up after Trudeau’s resignation, revealing Canada’s polarized politics? Canadian politics was left in confusion about which way to turn after U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at annexing Canada as the 51st state.

What an absolutely painful circus to watch unfold. After being thoroughly humiliated by Trump and losing whatever political capital he had left, Trudeau stepped down, hoping to give the Liberals one last shot at survival in the next election.

The Liberals wasted no time in installing Mark Carney, a globalist even more elitist than Trudeau, as Prime Minister. As a career technocrat, Carney’s credentials read like a who’s who of globalist power centres—Goldman Sachs, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, and the World Economic Forum.

When I saw that the so-called conservative Pierre Poilievre was positioned to run against Carney in the snap elections on April 28, 2025, it became obvious that the entire contest was pure theatre. Poilievre played his part well, talking tough, staying on script, and never crossing the lines he wasn’t supposed to. In an election where the outcome was never in doubt, Carney picked up where Trudeau left off.

What’s truly hilarious is that Canadians rallied behind Carney, thinking he was the tough guy who could stand up to Trump, as if a globalist banker could salvage national pride. They saw him as the unifier for the challenges ahead, not realizing he was just the next polished face of the same worn-out agenda. They did not hesitate to choose a copy of the same man as their hope, as if they had forgotten why they had withdrawn their support for Trudeau.

Watching these painful realities from a distance, I feel compelled to speak the truth. Liberals and conservatives are inflicting irreparable wounds on social cohesion without knowing that the system itself is rigged. Political scandals, unfulfilled campaign promises, and a lack of transparency continue to fuel growing skepticism toward Canadian leaders. My only hope is that more people begin to realize there are far better places to live and truly thrive outside of Canada.

Canada is no longer worth the debate. Broken systems, high taxes, lost freedoms, there’s nothing left to fix. The smart ones aren’t waiting. They’re departing.

Conclusion

It’s time to stop calculating the pros and cons of living in Canada. There are no advantages at all. Canada is a country stuck under high taxes, failing public services, ideological impositions, and an increasingly authoritarian government. Buying a house has become a dream, healthcare a lottery, and freedom of expression a luxury.

Even worse, despite all these problems, there is no will to fix Canada’s future. Canada has become divided by ideological wars between ever-growing state control and failed economic policies. Simply put, the best place to live in Canada doesn’t exist.

The answer for those looking to secure their future is to look beyond Canada. If you don’t want to be penalized for your success, crushed by high taxes, and deprived of your fundamental rights, now is the time to explore alternative countries that genuinely value freedom and opportunity.

*  *  *

The truth is, Canada’s decline is just one piece of a much bigger global pattern. The warning signs are everywhere: collapsing economies, overreaching governments, and shrinking personal freedoms. You don’t have to wait until it’s too late—or stay trapped in a system that’s stacked against you. There’s a better way forward, and the time to act is now. That’s why we’re urging you to join Doug Casey’s urgent online video event, where he’ll reveal his proven strategy to survive and thrive during the coming collapse. You’ll learn exactly how to secure a real Plan B with second passports, offshore banking, and the kind of freedom insurance that governments can’t take away from you. Reserve your spot here before it’s too late.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/31/2025 - 23:20

Mueller Announces Parkinson's Diagnosis, Will Not Testify In Epstein Investigation

Former FBI Director and Trump special counsel Robert Mueller claims he has Parkinson's disease, and "cannot comply with a request to testify this week before a congressional committee investigating the government's handling of the Jeffrey Epstein investigations," the NY Times originally reported Sunday evening before stealth-editing their article to lead with the committee having withdrawn their request. 

It's a little unclear how it went down since the Times never issued a correction.

Anyway, this sudden Parkinsons' diagnosis came shortly after the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee said it would subpoena Mueller to testify on Tuesday over the FBI's handling of Jeffrey Epstein while he was director of the FBI. 

Of note, committee chair James Comer (R-KY) wrote in a letter to Mueller; Because you were F.B.I. director during the time when Mr. Epstein was under investigation by the F.B.I., the committee believes that you possess knowledge and information relevant to its investigation."

In 2008, the U.S. attorney in Miami, Alexander Acosta, negotiated a so-called nonprosecution agreement with Mr. Epstein’s lawyers. Under the deal, federal prosecutors declined to charge Mr. Epstein but he pleaded guilty to a lesser state charge of soliciting a minor for prostitution. As part of that agreement, Mr. Epstein served 13 months at a local prison, where he was allowed to leave custody and work out of his office six days a week.

After federal prosecutors indicted Mr. Epstein in 2019, the deal reached in 2008 was widely criticized, as it was seen as far too favorable to Mr. Epstein, who, according to court documents, continued to abuse underage girls in the years that followed. It is not clear how much involvement Mr. Mueller had in the Epstein investigation. -NYT

The Times then spends a considerable portion of the article 'selling' the notion that Mueller's too sick to testify over Jeffrey Epstein - with people such as former AG Bill Barr (also linked to Epstein) having noted Mueller's relatively recent frailty in his memoir. 

During a key meeting to discuss the findings of Mr. Mueller’s investigation in 2019, Mr. Mueller’s hands “were trembling” and his voice was “tremulous,” Mr. Barr wrote in a memoir published in 2022.

“I knew he wasn’t nervous, and I wondered if he might have an illness,” Mr. Barr wrote.

Mr. Barr wrote that after the meeting, he and the deputy attorney general at the time, Mr. Rosenstein, discussed Mr. Mueller’s condition.

“Wow,” Mr. Barr said he said to Mr. Rosenstein. “Bob has lost a step.”

Indeed. 

Others in Comer's crosshairs include; James Comey, the former F.B.I. director; Hillary and Bill Clinton; and Eric H. Holder Jr., Merrick B. Garland, Alberto R. Gonzales, Jeff Sessions and Mr. Barr, all former attorneys general.

Did you catch that Bill Clinton's been seen walking around with a defibrillator? 

Poor guy might not be able to testify either! These things happen. 

* * *

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/31/2025 - 22:45

She Couldn't Read Her Own Diploma: Why Public Schools Pass Students but Fail Society

Authored by Hannah Frankman Hood via the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER),

A nineteen-year-old college student is suing her former high school for negligence because she graduated despite being unable to read or write.

The student, Aleysha Ortiz, graduated from Hartford Public Schools in the spring of 2024 with honors.

She earned a scholarship to attend the University of Connecticut, where she’s studying public policy. But while she was in high school, she had to use speech-to-text apps to help her read and write essays, and despite years of advocating for support for her literacy struggles, her school never addressed them.

Her story is shocking, but unfortunately, it isn’t isolated. At 24 Illinois public schools, not a single student can read at grade level. Nationwide, 54 percent of the American adult population reads at or below a sixth grade level. Put a different way: only 46 percent of American adults gained even a middle-school level mastery of literacy—let alone high school or collegiate levels.

In a first-world country where we spend nearly $16,000 per student per year to educate our children, that’s a horrifying statistic.

Literacy is supposed to be the bedrock of a free and liberally educated society. As the Washington Post’s motto so aptly reminds us, “democracy dies in darkness.”

Illiteracy is a form of darkness, and an illiterate populace is not one equipped to handle the demands of a world filled with forms and papers and words, let alone be the voting citizens of a democratic society.

What Do Literacy Stats Actually Mean?

Officially, the United States reports a basic literacy rate of 99 percent (which should perhaps be called into question, if students like Aleysha Ortiz can graduate with honors and still be illiterate).

But “basic literacy” is a bit of a sales pitch. It sounds impressive, but in practice, “basic literacy skills” means a K-3 grade level of reading—things like Hop on Pop and Amelia Bedelia.

“Functional literacy” is what actually matters: the ability to read and understand things like forms, instructions, job applications, and other forms of text you’ll encounter in your day-to-day life. It measures both technical reading skill and comprehension—your ability to decipher the words, and your ability to discern their meaning.

An estimated 21 percent of American adults (~43 million Americans) are functionally illiterate, meaning they have difficulty reading and comprehending instructions and filling out forms. A functionally illiterate American adult is unable to complete tasks like reading job descriptions or filling out paperwork for Social Security and Medicaid.

Perhaps worse still is the statistic that 54 percent of the American adult population reads at or below a sixth-grade level. Most of us don’t think about reading in terms of grade level, so this statistic feels intuitively bad but practically meaningless. What is a sixth-grade level?

Books written at the sixth-grade level are intended (in both literacy and comprehension skills) for eleven- and twelve-year-olds. Think of books like A Wrinkle in Time, Percy Jackson and The Olympians, and The Giver.

They’re good stories, but they don’t require the same vocabulary and mental acuity as making sense of a tax form. This is an excerpt from The Giver:

Garbriel’s breathing was even and deep. Jonas liked having him there, though he felt guilty about the secret. Each night he gave memories to Gabriel: memories of boat rides and picnics in the sun; memories of soft rainfall against windowpanes; memories of dancing barefoot on a damp lawn.

More complex than Dick and Jane or Hop on Pop, obviously. But this isn’t an adult level of comprehension. If your reading abilities cap out here, you’re going to encounter a lot of text in your day-to-day life that’s difficult to decipher—often things that are important for you to be able to comprehend, like the terms of a lease agreement or the instructions on a medication.

Has It Always Been Like This?

Our public education system has been plagued by literacy struggles for decades. But American literacy was not always in such poor condition. Famous American historical texts are particularly interesting to study as an example.

Second only to the Bible, the most popular work of the Colonial Era was John Bunyon’s Pilgrim’s Progress. It sold millions of copies, and Benjamin Franklin described it as being found in nearly every colonial home. As Harriet Beecher Stowe later wrote, “no book, save the Bible, has been more read by the common people.”

Its language is not watered down for the literarily meek:

“Mr. Worldly-Wiseman is not an ancient relic of the past. He is everywhere today, disguising his heresy and error by proclaiming the gospel of contentment and peace achieved by self-satisfaction and works. If he mentions Christ, it is not as the Savior who took our place, but as a good example of an exemplary life. Do we need a good example to rescue us, or do we need a Savior?”

This is, again, well above a sixth-grade level. Today, “heresy” is considered to be a college-level word. “Exemplary” is eleventh grade.

Pilgrim’s Progress was used for both spiritual and literacy instruction, and Protestant early America (especially in New England) valued a literate population, one where every man could read his own Bible.

Today, over half the American population cannot read and understand that passage. So what happened?

America’s Literacy Woes: A Brief History

Alas, our literacy crisis has existed for nearly as long as our public education system. In the 1950s, mere decades after the public school system entrenched itself as part of American life, Rudolf Flesch wrote a scathing book titled Why Johnny Can’t Read, in which he pulled no punches about our already staggering literacy failings.

At the time, official reports were that around 95 percent of American adults were literate. But Flesch, and other critics like him, were raising growing concerns about functional literacy and reading comprehension. Not “can Johnny see the words on the page and know what each one says,” but “can Johnny understand what he’s reading?”

Flesch argued that the answer, in many cases, was no.

We trundled on. In the 1980s, Reagan’s administration published the landmark paper titled A Nation at Risk, in which Americans were warned about our falling academic test scores—including our literacy—and that if the trend wasn’t corrected, it would lead to a national crisis.

Fifty years later, the trend has not been corrected, and we are a nation in risky waters, especially considering the financial lengths we’ve gone to trying to improve it. As a nation, we spend nearly $16,000 per student per year on our public K-12 education. Nationwide, we spend $857.2 billion per year on public K-12 schools.

If that isn’t buying literacy for all, then what exactly is it paying for?

The issue, in part, is the approach. In the Sold a Story documentary podcast series published in 2022, Emily Hanford started a controversy by pulling back the curtain on how reading instruction is done in America. For decades, schools have been instructed to teach children to read using the whole-word method (or the look-say method), not phonics, despite the clear empirical evidence that whole-word methods do not create literacy.

Phonics is the cheat code that allows readers to decode language: memorize 26 letters and their corresponding 44 sounds, and unlock the lifelong ability to sound out nearly any word you will ever encounter in every language using the Roman alphabet (about 3,000 languages, making it the most widely-used alphabet in the world).

Children learn to read first by learning the alphabet and memorizing each letter’s sounds, then slowly stringing those sounds together into words: h-o-p o-n p-o-p. Over time, they build the muscle to decode longer and longer words, building their comprehension skills along the way.

The whole-word method, on the other hand, bypasses phonics altogether.

Children are taught to read by recognizing words, not by sounding them out, in what one critic calls ‘a psycho-linguistic guessing game.’ If they don’t recognize a word, they’re encouraged to guess its meaning by context clues—in the early years, by looking at the pictures in a picture book; in later years, by gleaning the context from the words around them. If you experienced Dick and Jane readers, you were exposed to early whole-word education. This approach to reading is mere word memorization, not true literacy mastery. The concept of phonics—prerequisite to meaning-making and accurate decoding—is never even introduced in many school systems.

Once we learn to read, we often use the whole-word method as a shortcut—you’re likely reading this sentence by recognizing the words, not by sounding them out. But if you bypass the ability to sound out words you don’t know (and to phonetically write words you don’t know how to spell), you break the foundation of actual literacy. This is what many public school classrooms have been doing for decades—teaching from a long-disproven method we know puts students at risk of illiteracy.

But even this is only part of the problem. The methods for tracking student progress and understanding their level of mastery are also broken. Some kids are fully conscious of their struggles to read, like Aleysha Ortiz. But other students come home with glowing report cards, and no one, students or parents alike, realizes that anything is wrong. This is why ACT scores are falling while high school GPAs are rising. Grade inflation has rendered report cards meaningless as a measure of overall academic performance.

Some of the problem is nuanced—GPAs include things like diligence in homework and class participation as well as test results, while ACT scores measure only rote academic performance—but teachers are also often pressured to keep their pass rates high. Funding and policy are often tied to student performance and graduation rates, so schools are incentivized to keep students passing and moving through the system, even when they’re not learning.

To many, it may be inconceivable that teachers would continue to teach in a way they know doesn’t work, bowing to political pressure over the needs of students. But to those familiar with the incentive structures of public education, it’s no surprise. Teachers unions and public district officials fiercely oppose accountability and merit-based evaluation for both students and teachers. Teachers’ unions consistently fight against alternatives that would give students in struggling districts more educational options. In attempts to improve ‘equity,’ some districts have ordered teachers to stop giving grades, taking attendance, or even offering instruction altogether.

Grade inflation, social promotion, and a general disinterest in individual outcomes keep kids shuffling along the conveyor belt. Aleysha Ortiz used speech-to-text apps to help her write her high school essays, which were strong enough for her to graduate from Hartford Public School with honors. Like Ortiz, students keep getting passed through the system, passing tests and advancing from grade to grade without ever actually learning the core skills they need to survive in the world.

Which is how we’ve ended up with a population where 54 percent of American adults don’t have the literacy skills to read this article, and with a country that will, very quickly, drop behind the world in its overall ability if we don’t turn things around.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/31/2025 - 22:10

DHS's New Election Integrity Czar Has Receipts On Pennsylvania's 2020 Fraud

Authored by Ben Sellers via Headline USA,

Left-wing media outlets pounced this week to attack President Donald Trump’s new appointee for the Department of Homeland Security’s election-integrity czar.

Outlets including the Associated Press and ProPublica accused Heather Honey of being an “election denier” for the doubts she has cast over the 2020 election outcome.

However, Honey’s supporters pointed to the fact that she has the receipts to back up her skepticism—including evidence that Pennsylvania, a hotbed for vote fraud by many accounts, finished with 121,240 more votes than voters.

With all counties reporting, PA ended its 2020 election with 121,240 MORE votes than voters. Certifying an election this way is illegal.

Heather Honey’s work has never been refuted. She’s uncovered enough evidence to overturn the fraudulent 2020 election in multiple states. https://t.co/3udeFIlgC3 pic.twitter.com/bAB71Rdwce

— Liz Harrington (@realLizUSA) August 27, 2025

“Heather Honey’s work has never been refuted,” wrote Liz Harrington, Trump’s former campaign spokesperson. “She’s uncovered enough evidence to overturn the fraudulent 2020 election in multiple states.”

Trump could have clinched the election with Pennsylvania and Georgia—another hotly contested battleground state where questions over rampant fraud have yet to be fully resolved.

Left-wing activists, including Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, waged several lawfare attacks on Trump and his allies to ensure that previous efforts to investigate were punished.

Trump adviser Rudy Giuliani was sued for raising questions about the after-hours ballot counting at the Atlanta county’s State Farm Arena following video evidence suggesting that an election official had pulled cases of hidden ballots from beneath a table and scanned them multiple times.

Honey—who worked closely with Trump’s campaign lawyers such as Public Interest Legal Foundation chair Cleta Mitchell—played significant roles in the efforts to challenge Georgia’s final ballot count and the forensic audit of Arizona’s election, which uncovered widespread irregularities.

According to Mitchell, she confirmed more votes than voters in Michigan, as well.

“Her expertise is the study of systems to identify vulnerabilities that could be exploited by potential fraudsters and she was struck by what she saw in 2020 and started applying her expertise to research on election systems,” Mitchell wrote in a post defending Honey following the media smear attack.

Let’s review why the leftist media hate Heather Honey’s appointment as Deputy Asst Secretary at DHS for Election Integrity (thank you @Sec_Noem !)

Heather is a professional open source investigator who had never researched elections before 2020. Her expertise is the study of…

— Cleta Mitchell (@CletaMitchell) August 27, 2025

The decision for media outlets to target Honey reportedly came directly from Democracy Docket, the anti-integrity activist group founded by notorious election lawyer Marc Elias after he was forced out of the Perkins Coie lawfirm during John Durham’s investigation of the Steele Dossier scandal.

SCOOP: Heather Honey, an election conspiracy theorist tied to Cleta Mitchell, was appointed to a new “election integrity” position at DHS. Honey boasts a long history of promoting election conspiracies and has questioned the 2020 election results. https://t.co/PnKRX3h4I4

— Democracy Docket (@DemocracyDocket) August 25, 2025

Leftists may be justifiably worried about the Trump administration’s efforts to close many of the voting loopholes they have long exploited to pad the voter tallies with dubious or outright illegitimate ballots.

In addition to red-state redistricting to counter Democrats’ longstanding gerrymandering efforts, Trump and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem have floated the possibility of stationing ICE agents outside of polling precincts to deter illegal voting in blue states.

“Democrats are cheaters and hate nothing more than an honest and well-informed leader who is ON to them – leaders like Heather Honey,” Mitchell wrote in her post.

“Having Heather inside the Dept of Homeland Security is an enormous step toward fixing our broken election systems,” she added.

“That’s why the leftist media is howling and having public meltdowns over Heather’s appointment.”

While the shock of the brazen ballot manipulation—much of it the result of unprecedented mail-in voting during the COVID era—may have marked a low point in America’s history, some have since pointed out that the loss had a silver lining.

The four years of Biden allowed Trump and his allies time to regroup, while Democrats continued to lay traps that cost them political capital and set precedents for how Trump could proceed to hold them accountable.

It also allowed him to identify who the true loyalists were to ensure that he could hit the ground running with his ambitious agenda.

“Sometimes it feels like the 2020 election being rigged against Trump was a blessing in disguise, because otherwise … the same elites who wrecked everything would be back in charge now,” conservative influencer Hans Mahncke wrote on Friday.

Sometimes it feels like the 2020 election being rigged against Trump was a blessing in disguise, because otherwise Pence would have spent the second term sabotaging Trump from within and the same elites who wrecked everything would be back in charge now. https://t.co/pgIKRhEC3S

— Hans Mahncke (@HansMahncke) August 30, 2025

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/31/2025 - 21:35

The Pentagon Cracks Down On Big Tech's Coziness With China

Authored by Paul Bradford via American Greatness,

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced last week that the military would cease using a Microsoft program that relied on Chinese engineers. This obviously presented a major security issue, which Hegseth noted.

“If you’re thinking ‘America first’ and common sense, this doesn’t pass either of those tests,” Hegseth said of the program.

“The use of Chinese nationals to service Department of Defense cloud environments? It’s over.”

He also declared that the DOD had delivered a formal letter to Microsoft, chiding the tech giant for breaching the trust of its government and for allowing such a problem to arise. The Pentagon promises to do more audits of its Microsoft-provided programs and other tech initiatives for China connections.

Microsoft is one of the worst offenders in this CCP connection.

Its co-founder, Bill Gates, always finds an opportunity to praise China. In March, Gates gushed over the communist state’s tech advances and warned that any American attempts to counter Chinese growth would stifle global innovation.

The tech giant has a large presence in the country, generating fears that this would allow the CCP access to our national security operations.

The “digital escorts” program that the DOD just revoked, confirmed these fears.

Microsoft’s Chinese engineers handle some of the most sensitive material the Pentagon processes.

As ProPublica reported in July:

Microsoft uses the escort system to handle the government’s most sensitive information that falls below “classified.” According to the government, this “high impact level” category includes “data that involves the protection of life and financial ruin.” The “loss of confidentiality, integrity, or availability” of this information “could be expected to have a severe or catastrophic adverse effect” on operations, assets, and individuals, the government has said. In the Defense Department, the data is categorized as “Impact Level” 4 and 5 and includes materials that directly support military operations.

Former CIA senior executive Harry Coker told the outlet, “If I were an operative, I would look at that as an avenue for extremely valuable access. We need to be very concerned about that.”

The ChiComs may even inspire some of Microsoft’s domestic operations. The tech giant played a critical role in setting up the censorship industrial complex that has been weaponized against conservatives in the U.S. and elsewhere. The CCP would be proud of such an endeavor.

Microsoft cultivates close ties with China because its dominance of the market makes its executives think it’s too big to punish. It’s only the operator who can serve the government’s national security needs in certain areas. Any concerns about communist subversion are ignored when it’s the only option available.

These practices likely run afoul of antitrust law, making Microsoft a prime target for a Federal Trade Commission investigation. FTC Chairman Andrew Ferguson has made it a priority to crack down on Big Tech malfeasance in the market. Microsoft’s actions don’t just violate free market principles—they also put our national security at risk.

The FTC announced a probe into Microsoft’s bundling practices last December. The tech company allegedly uses this strategy to make itself seem the best option for government contracting while unfairly cutting out the competition. This lack of serious competition cements Microsoft’s cavalier attitude towards China and its reluctance to change that behavior. If no other company can challenge Microsoft’s stranglehold, there’s little motivation to correct the tech giant’s errors.

The administration wants to mandate a simple standard for companies it does business with: put America first. Microsoft and other tech giants fail this basic criterion. Previous administrations allowed them to skate by due to their monopolies. It’s time to change that for the sake of the national interest. We can’t allow China to further undermine our defense capabilities because we’re afraid of upsetting Bill Gates.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/31/2025 - 21:00

These Are The 20 Most Densely Populated Countries And Territories In The World

From compact city-states to island nations, many of the world’s most densely populated jurisdictions share one thing in common: limited land area.

While population growth plays a role, land mass area is often the stronger driver of population density.

In fact, 13 of the 20 most densely populated nations and territories are islands.

This infographic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, visualizes the jurisdictions with the highest population density in 2025, based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Macau Has the Highest Population Density Worldwide

Below, we show jurisdictions by population density in 2025, measured in people per square kilometer.

Macau tops the global list with a staggering 23,167 people per square kilometer.

This semi-autonomous region of China is densely packed due to its popularity as a gambling hub and its limited land mass. Over the past 25 years, the population has increased by 185,000 residents across an area stretching just 33 km².

Monaco follows with 16,024/km², reflecting its luxury economy, tax benefits, and constrained geography. As a result, Monaco is home to one of the most expensive real estate markets globally.

Meanwhile, Singapore and Hong Kong also rank highly, demonstrating how city-states or city-like regions dominate this metric.

As we can see, many of the most densely populated places are island nations or small territories. Notably, Sint Maarten, Malta, and Bermuda each have over 1,300 people per square kilometer.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out this map on population density in North America on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/31/2025 - 19:15

Trump Says He Will Issue Executive Order To Require Voter ID

Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he has decided to issue an executive order to request that federal elections require the presentation of voter ID in order to cast a ballot.

“Voter I.D. Must Be Part of Every Single Vote. No exceptions!” Trump wrote on a post on Truth Social.

“I Will Be Doing An Executive Order To That End!!!”

The president did not give a timeline for his order.

The midterm elections will be held on Nov. 3, 2026.

States have authority over how to hold their elections as long as they comply with federal prohibitions.

The president also repeated his opposition to the widespread adoption of mail-in ballots and the use of electronic voting systems, although this time he didn’t say they would be the subject of any executive action.

“Also, No Mail-In Voting, Except For Those That Are Very Ill, And The Far Away Military. Use paper ballots only!!!” he said.

Earlier this month, Trump had pledged to issue an executive order ahead of the 2026 midterm elections to end the use of mail-in ballots and return to the use of paper ballots instead of voting machines.

In March, Trump issued an executive order to require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for registering to vote in federal elections. The order was to enforce that states meet the citizenship requirement for federal elections in requiring government-issued ID in their voter registration forms.

The order also sought to overhaul election rules related to other aspects of election law enforcement such as voting deadlines, electronic voting machine security, and foreign interference in U.S. elections.

The president said the changes were intended to safeguard the vote against what he describes as “fraud, errors, or suspicion.”

Legal groups filed suit, claiming that the order exceeded presidential authority, and a federal judge agreed in part with the plaintiffs, blocking implementation of much of the executive order, while allowing a directive to tighten mail-in ballot deadlines around the country to remain in force.

After the Supreme Court issued a judgement in late June in an unrelated case limiting the judicial branch from granting nationwide injunctions, the federal judge in the elections case amended her injunction in mid-July in the case to apply only to the 19 Democratic-led states that filed the complaint.

The Trump administration has appealed the ruling with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit, arguing that the enforcement sought in the executive order doesn’t alter existing federal statutes or violate the Constitution.

“The Executive has interpreted the law for centuries—this is nothing new, and certainly nothing constitutionally objectionable. But, in any event, the President’s interpretation of those laws accords with their text, purpose, and history, and he has the authority to interpret for the Executive Branch what they require,” government lawyers argued.

Trump also pushed for the passage of the SAVE Act, a major overhaul of federal election law that was passed by the House but floundered in the Senate, where it would have required support from Democratic lawmakers to pass.

At the state level, Texas Republicans, at Trump’s urging, recently passed legislation to redraw their state’s congressional maps to increase Republicans’ hold on the U.S. House delegation by five seats. Gov. Greg Abbott signed the bill into law on Aug. 29. California lawmakers have responded with a push to increase Democrats’ hold over California’s U.S. House delegation.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/31/2025 - 18:40

'We Have Many Options': US Warships Pass Through Panama Canal Toward Southern Caribbean

U.S. warships were seen entering the Panama Canal while navigating east toward the Atlantic, according to photos taken on Aug. 30.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Aug. 19 that President Donald Trump was “prepared to use every element of American power to stop drugs from flooding into [the United States] and to bring those responsible to justice.”

“Many Caribbean nations and many nations in the region have applauded the administration’s counterdrug operations and efforts,” Leavitt added.

As Jacob Burg reports below, the previous day, a White House official told The Epoch Times that U.S. naval and air assets would deploy to the southern Caribbean Sea amid a heightened counternarcotics effort.

That deployment puts U.S. warships a short distance off Venezuela’s northern coastline, following years of strained relations between the United States and Venezuela.

In 2017, Trump told reporters, “We have many options for Venezuela, including a possible military option, if necessary.”

Trump rejected the 2018 snap presidential election, in which Nicolás Maduro was declared the winner. He also backed then-Venezuelan National Assembly President Juan Guaidó’s efforts to declare himself the rightful head of state of Venezuela until new elections commenced.

In 2019, Guaidó led a short-lived attempted uprising against Maduro. A year later, the U.S. Department of Justice declared that Maduro was linked to both drug and weapons trafficking and offered $15 million for information leading to the regime leader’s arrest.

When Maduro claimed he had won Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election, the Biden administration rejected the results, and accusations mounted that the outcome was rigged for Maduro.

Now, the Justice Department is offering $50 million for information leading to Maduro’s arrest.

Maduro denounced the news that U.S. warships were traveling to the Southern Caribbean this week.

On Aug. 28, Venezuela criticized the U.S. naval buildup to United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres and accused Washington of breaking the founding U.N. Charter.

“It’s a massive propaganda operation to justify what the experts call kinetic action—meaning military intervention in a country which is a sovereign and independent country and is no threat to anyone,” Venezuelan U.N. Ambassador Samuel Moncada told reporters after meeting with Guterres.

In February, the Trump administration designated several transnational gangs, including Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel and Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua, as global terrorist organizations.

In response to the U.S. actions, Maduro said, “Our diplomacy isn’t the diplomacy of cannons, of threats, because the world cannot be the world of 100 years ago.”

Maduro’s regime said last week that it would send 15,000 troops to states along its western border with Colombia to combat drug trafficking rings. He has also directed civil defense groups to train every Friday and Saturday.

The Venezuelan regime often accused both domestic opposition and foreigners of conspiring with U.S. entities, including the CIA, to hurt Venezuela, which the opposition and the United States have denied. The regime refers to U.S. sanctions as “economic war.”

On Aug. 24, Venezuela released a group of 13 political prisoners after the Trump administration ramped up pressure on the regime.

The move came after news first broke that the United States was sending military assets to the waters off the coast of Venezuela.

Henrique Capriles, a prominent member of Venezuela’s opposition and two-time presidential candidate, said eight prisoners were freed outright and five others were transferred to house arrest.

“Today, several families are reunited with their loved ones. We know that many remain, and we do not forget them; we continue fighting for all,” Capriles, who narrowly lost to Maduro in the highly disputed 2013 presidential election, said on X.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/31/2025 - 18:05

Trump Admin Moves To Cut 500+ Positions At Taxpayer-Funded Propaganda Network, Voice Of America

Kari Lake, acting CEO of the U.S. Agency for Global Media, an independent federal agency that oversees America's international broadcasting operations, including Voice of America, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and other government-funded outlets, announced late Friday a "reduction in force" that will eliminate hundreds of jobs across the U.S. government's international broadcasting network. This broadcasting network that reaches hundreds of millions worldwide has long been criticized as a taxpayer-funded megaphone for Democrats and their globalist pals.

"Tonight, the U.S. Agency for Global Media initiated what is known as a reduction in force, or RIF, of a large number of its full-time federal employees. We are conducting this RIF at the President's direction to help reduce the federal bureaucracy, improve agency service, and save the American people more of their hard-earned money," Lake wrote on X on Friday night. 

She continued, "USAGM will continue to fulfill its statutory mission after this RIF— and will likely improve its ability to function and provide the truth to people across the world who live under murderous Communist governments and other tyrannical regimes. I look forward to taking additional steps in the coming months to improve the functioning of a very broken agency and make sure America's voice is heard abroad where it matters most."

ANNOUNCEMENT—
U.S. Agency for Global Media Eliminates 532 Government Positions
Washington, D.C. - Tonight, the U.S. Agency for Global Media initiated what is known as a reduction in force, or RIF, of a large number of its full-time federal employees. We are conducting this RIF at… pic.twitter.com/LWeO9w0RNQ

— Kari Lake (@KariLake) August 30, 2025

The problem with VOA during the Biden-Harris years was that it failed to broadcast America's beacon of freedom and hope in a neutral manner. Instead, it became a taxpayer-funded, weaponized megaphone echoing Democrats' globalist priorities, targeting President Donald Trump, and vilifying MAGA voters. Regular programming glorified nation-killing progressive policies, such as open borders.

One day before Lake's RIF announcement, U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth ruled that Michael Abramowitz, a former Washington Post editor and now VOA director, could not be removed without the approval of the majority of the International Broadcasting Advisory Board. 

Firing Abramowitz would be "plainly contrary to law," according to Lamberth, who was appointed to the bench by former President Ronald Reagan.

In June, VOA sent layoff notices to more than 600 employees of the agency. Abramowitz was placed on administrative leave and informed that he would be fired, effective August 31. 

Lake's vision in the eyes of the Trump administration is to make VOA fairer, sharper, and more recognizably American, rather than serving Democrats and their globalist billionaire allies. 

Related: 

• Deep Throat For The Deep State

. . .

 

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/31/2025 - 16:55

How The US Will Force Yields Lower Across The Curve

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Forcing Yields Lower Across the Curve

We were already set to get a lot of economic data, especially on the labor front, compressed into a short week, and now we have to digest a court ruling on tariffs.

A federal appeals court ruled against (many/some/all?) tariffs imposed using an emergency law.

• The tariffs will remain in place while the case proceeds.

• It may go back to the lower court for another round, while also being pursued up to the Supreme Court. Nothing is “final” yet.

• We discussed a couple of weeks ago that tariff rebate claims were trading at 25 cents on the dollar. Presumably, those are trading moderately higher after this ruling, but to a large degree, this news, which hit after the close on a long weekend, should be at least partially priced in.

Given that, we won’t dwell on this issue, for now, and will try and have some fun with the almost universal view that U.S. yield curves will steepen and the long end is very vulnerable to a spike higher in yields.

It is worth highlighting that the equity narratives highlighted in last weekend’s No Lonesome Doves continued to work this week.

The Consensus on Rates and the Fed

There is a lot of debate over whether Fed independence will be compromised or not?

That goes hand in hand with whether or not we will have “unnecessary” or “politicized” rate cuts?

For anyone answering “yes” to both questions, the natural conclusion is that we get rate cuts, but yield curves steepen and long end yields likely rise, possibly by a lot (yes, we mentioned that once already, but it seemed worth mentioning again).

As discussed on Bloomberg TV this week, we think that might be too simplistic. That people aren’t thinking “out of the box” enough and may well be underestimating this admin on their plans for yields.

Everyone Knows What Happened Last September

Since the risk that this pattern repeats itself is so obvious, it seems obvious (at least to the T-Report) that someone in D.C. is trying to figure out a strategy so that it doesn’t happen again.

Largely Playing Devil’s Advocate

For this report we can have some “fun.” We can think out of the box and suggest things that we would/might do if we were trying to implement policy that would help yields across the curve. Some of the things suggested are not things we would do or advocate for someone to do, but that isn’t the point. The point is to think about things that could be done, that would really hurt the consensus trade.

What could or will the administration do to Force Yields Lower Across the Curve (and hurt the consensus view)?

Guided By Bessent

There have been all sorts of statements (maybe even outrageous statements) on where monetary policy should be.

Bessent in a Bloomberg TV interview a couple of weeks ago said that Fed Funds were 100 bps too high. There was some wiggle room around his answer, but I think we can assume that Bessent sees 100 bps as the right range of cuts in the (very) near term.

Bessent has also spoken about 3, 3, 3. That was linked to 3% budget deficits, 3% GDP growth, and 3 million barrels of oil per day.

While I don’t think Bessent has given a specific target on 10s, he has been quite vocal about focusing on longer-term yields, not just the front end. Additionally, the administration has been very concerned about mortgage rates – a function of yields and spreads.

Maybe it is a stretch to assume something in the low 3% range would be a target for this admin on 10s, but that is the working thesis for this exercise.

Politicized Cut?

It is easy to turn this into a debate about whether a cut is politicized or not. But that might be missing the point.

• The July meeting had 2 people dissent about the decision not to cut rates.

  • That was before the June jobs data was revised down sharply.

• Powell came across very dovish at Jackson Hole, leading many (or at least us) to conclude that while “only” two dissented, the debate to cut or not may have been even more vigorous than he made it seem during the press conference or in the Fed minutes.

• This is an “art” not a science. There have been plenty of people with a wealth of experience in economics and markets calling for rate cuts to have already started. Yes, there are people on both sides of the argument, but that is the point – there is no “right” answer. Having low quality data doesn’t make finding an answer any easier.

For purposes of this report (which is in line with our analysis and concerns on the labor front), 50 bps in September would be in the realm of justifiable.

Yes, many will disagree, and that is fair, but unless the jobs data across the board (ADP and the JOLTS Quit Rate are important to me) shows a robust improvement, I’d go with 50 bps and don’t consider that political.

Let’s just reflect on this for a moment.

If 50 bps is actually justified, why would the long end get hurt?

What many seem to consider a “politicized” cut, which sounds exciting to discuss, may not be, which means the alarm bells people expect to see in the market are less likely to materialize.

Independent versus Collaborative

Yeah, we are heading down a slippery slope here, but an “Independent” Fed doesn’t mean it has to (or should) “go it alone.”

Monetary policy, when implemented in conjunction with the Treasury Department (for example), may be the most powerful way to implement policy and get the desired results.

Whether it was during the GFC or COVID, we have seen the Fed work with other areas of the government to achieve their goals. That doesn’t mean the Fed isn’t independent, it just means that it is part of an overall strategy to achieve goals that it is in line with.

The Limitation of Fed Funds

Fed Funds as a policy tool seems weak at best. The “long and variable” time it takes for monetary policy to take effect when conducted through changes in the front end of the yield curve is almost comical.

• In the months it takes for moves at the front end of the yield curve to work through the system, any number of other things can happen (trade wars, actual wars, technological improvements, etc.). It is difficult, even after the fact, to judge what some cuts or hikes actually did in the real world.

• While ZIRP was a few years ago, many corporations, individuals, and municipal bond issuers locked in low rates, and are not that impacted by changes in front end yield. Whatever effectiveness conducting monetary policy via front end yields had has diminished since so many (other than the U.S. government itself) took advantage of lower for longer to protect themselves against changes in interest rates.

We’ve thought out of the box before, why not again?

Favorite Example

This was one of the “scariest” charts as COVID wreaked havoc on bond markets.

VCSH is an ETF that tracked 1 to 5 year corporate bonds. A 1% move in a short time is a relatively big deal. It fell around 12% in a matter of days. The discount to NAV was exploding. The ETF Spiral™ was in full effect (the arbitrage of selling bonds and buying the ETF, in times of stress, tends to accelerate and amplify the stress). Then the government announced a plan where the Fed (with money from the Treasury Department if I remember correctly) would buy ETFs.

The problem was literally fixed overnight.

Despite the fact that the mechanism to get the funding wasn’t set up. The ability to buy equities (which is what the ETFs are) had not been established. Again, I think it took weeks (if not longer) before any purchases of ETFs were made, but just the announcement fixed the problem.

Incredibly powerful and nothing that any amount of Fed Fund cuts was going to fix as effectively or quickly as this plan did.

One and Done?

We will start with this one, because timing wise, it might be easiest.

I’m not sure if this will work or not, but it deserves some consideration.

• If the Fed goes 25 or even 50 in September, the market will immediately move to speculate on the timing and sizes of the next cuts. Especially those who characterize any cut as being politically pressured. There will be just as much uncertainty about the path and intentions of the Fed after the cut, as before the cut. Realistically, no one thinks we will get one cut of 25 bps and be done, so the speculation about Fed independence etc., will still attract a lot of attention and possibly push yields higher.

• What about going 100 bps (which is where Bessent is and not far off from our 3 to 4 cuts this year), but committing to leave rates alone for several quarters unless the data changes dramatically one way or the other? Would people “trust the commitment”? That might be a stretch (even I’d be skeptical and I kind of like the concept).

  • 100 bps would take Fed Funds to 3.33% (I like the 3s).

  • The 1 month versus 10 year yield spread is currently -9 bps. It would have to steepen by almost 80 bps for 10s to stay above 4%. A 100 bp cut would require a LOT of steepening, maybe more than the vigilantes can deliver to keep 10s above 4%?

Not my favorite idea, but something to think about. I do like “ripping the band-aid off” on cuts and getting to the endpoint (or potential endpoint) quickly rather than dragging it out (which is the “normal” procedure).

Attack Rent Inflation

Shelter is one of the biggest components of CPI.

“We” (and I use that term loosely) continue to use Owners’ Equivalent Rent as part of the calculation. If anyone can tell you succinctly and simply why Owners’ Equivalent Rent is still the right metric, I’d be shocked. It is a “calculation,” maybe even an “awkward” calculation. It is designed to have lags built in. Those lags presumably were to slow inflation from hitting the benchmarks in real time (by and large shelter costs go up). We were screaming at the top of our lungs during “transitory” that the shelter inflation in CPI was understating the real world rent inflation. Now “shockingly” it is working in reverse. The shelter component is artificially raising inflation benchmarks.

What I find interesting is that the Cleveland Fed has created their own metric, which seems to work well (I could only find a year-on-year version and it is a long weekend so didn’t spend too much time looking for a month-on-month version).

What little I know about charting this stuff is:

• We are back to a pretty normal level of inflation for rents.

• If the annual line is continuing to decline, the recent monthly numbers are lower still.

The Cleveland metric is below the almost 4% change in shelter inflation in CPI. Now, we wouldn’t normally quibble over a 1% or so difference in the course of a year, but since shelter is such a large component it is keeping inflation both stubbornly and inaccurately high.

If you want to attack inflation fears, start by attacking the data itself and highlighting this large component which virtually everyone agrees it is being overstated.

If you can combat some of the inflation fears, it should reduce the power of the bond vigilantes and the arguments of those who say it is a “political” decision to cut with inflation high.

Shift the Balance Sheets

This gets to the heart of the problem. These are our current calculations of the Fed holdings of Treasuries by maturity (ignoring T-Bills, floaters, and TIPS).

The Fed balance sheet is skewed to the shorter maturities.

The Fed owns $2 trillion of bonds maturing in less than 7 years versus “only” $1 trillion of bonds maturing 15 years or more.

Let’s “imagine” that the Fed starts an “aggressive” Operation Twist. Selling bonds that mature in 3 years or less (most anchored by Fed Funds) would create about $1.2 trillion of purchasing power.

If they only bought bonds 20 years or longer, that would almost triple their portfolio size. Interestingly, “only” $2 trillion of bonds maturing 20 years or longer are outside of Fed control, so that would be 50% of the float! When you start thinking about what percentage of that is locked up in not available for sale accounts, it would be IMMENSE buying power.

That is extreme, but we start to get a sense of what can be done.

T-bills will be “anchored” by Fed Funds. So, the Treasury Department, if it doesn’t like where yields are (even with Operation Twist), could scale back issuance of longer-dated bonds even further, creating favorable supply and demand dynamics.

Don’t Fight the Fed.

Why would the Fed do Operation Twist? 

Why wouldn’t they? They’ve done similar actions before. If they believe (and some do) that rates are too high, why would they be content to “only” set the front end of the yield curve? Why not, once again, interfere in the longer end of the bond market?

Heck, while I’m at it, why not shift out of some Treasuries and into mortgages? That might help the “spread” component of mortgages come down.

Also, there are $3.6 trillion of bonds maturing 10 years or longer, with prices below 90 cents on the dollar. That may create some interesting “accounting games” as selling bonds at par to buy bonds below par could be pitched as some sort of a gain? In the real world, it is far more complex than that, but possibly in an accrual accounting world, something can be done with these bonds to make it seem “even better” from either a deficit or overall debt standpoint. Bit of a stretch, but I’ve always been a fan of buying bonds at a discount.

YCC

That looks like the 3 letter code for a Canadian airport, but it is Yield Curve Control. 

The U.S. hasn’t gotten into yield curve control in my lifetime, but it seems like each crisis brings new “unconventional” tools, which take us a step closer.

Japan had it recently. 

This is an administration that is comfortable “setting the prices” on things like tariffs, so setting the price of yields seems well within the scope of what they might do.

If this was the 1990s and I said yield curve control, I’d expect people (including myself) to be aghast at the idea. But seriously, we have been on this slippery slope since at least the GFC, if not LTCM (Long Term Capital Management for those of you who didn’t have to deal with that mess).

Stablecoin Demand for Treasuries

We’ve written in the past that Bessent expects $3 trillion to come into USD stablecoins (he really does seem to like the number 3).

That, if it materializes, would create demand for T-bills and short dated bonds.

Maybe we could issue more T-bills and fewer longer-dated bonds to satisfy that demand? Maybe we could sell bonds maturing in less than a year, to buy bonds maturing in 20+ years, to satisfy that demand?

I am excited for the opportunities in the stablecoin space given recent laws and regulations, but it might take more time to generate those sorts of inflows (new inflows into the USD forcing T-bill buying, rather than flows that cannibalize money from funds that also bought T-bills).

In any case, as this demand grows, it fits very well with things like Operation Twist, or a different maturity profile from the Treasury.

Any new net demand is good demand.

Gold Revaluation

According to AI, the U.S. has 8,133.46 metric tons of gold. I get confused between a tonne, a metric ton, and a ton, but it is a LOT of gold!

The book value is $6.2 billion (which is based on a price of gold of $42.222 per troy ounce that was established in 1973).
With spot gold almost $3,450 per ounce, the “market value” of the gold would be more than 80 times that amount – or about $506 billion.

Just “marking to market” gold would generate $500 billion of accounting revenue.

That is fraught with other issues. Annually, presumably, we’d have to adjust the value based on the price of gold. If the market thought the repricing was a sign that the U.S. would sell a lot of gold, the price would likely drop.

Since I presume the U.S. would sell some gold to fund some of its “Sovereign Wealth Fund” aspirations or make some deals, then the gains would be less, but still nothing to dismiss.

If you wanted to cause a distraction – announcing that you are revaluing gold and planning to sell it to invest in companies (or maybe even crypto currencies) might make everyone forget that the yield curve is meant to steepen!
Since I don’t understand why we hold so much gold as it is (I’m not in the barbaric relic camp, but am probably closer to that than the “sound/hard” money camp) I cannot see why we wouldn’t do some of this.

Would it lower the dollar? Probably, but for an administration trying to revert trade flow, a weaker dollar is a feature not a bug, even if they can’t say that out loud.

Tariffs

For now, despite the recent court ruling, it is worth resending our Tariff Revenue Charts which highlight the revenue that has come in so far (though subject to legal challenge) along with our rationale of why tariffs will take a long time to truly impact inflation.

Not the strongest argument right now after the court ruling, but some version of this argument remains relevant.

Bottom Line

It’s a long weekend and I could have written the umpteenth piece on the risks to the Fed and to the shape of the yield curve.

But, I thought it would be more fun to try to play devil’s advocate and create some discussion around tools and steps that could be taken to not just reduce the risk, but also potentially reverse the risk as the trade seems quite one-sided at this point and seems to not give the administration enough credit for trying to force things that we hadn’t thought could be forced.

It is too early to pound the table on flatteners, but that is the opportunity I’m looking for.

Nothing we’ve written or suggested today, if used, is helpful for the dollar, but, again, not sure that anyone involved in the U.S. efforts to import less and export more cares.

Enjoy your Labor Day weekend and get ready for all the labor data next week, all of which will be taken with a grain of salt given the recent adjustments.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/31/2025 - 16:20

Fecal Fiasco: Labor Day Letdown As East Coast Beaches Close Due To Contamination

Some of the East Coast’s most popular beaches, stretching from Long Island all the way down to Florida, will be off-limits to swimmers this Labor Day weekend thanks to sky-high levels of fecal contamination, officials warned.

Photo: Elizabeth Halliday, © Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

On Long Island, Benjamin’s Beach in Bay Shore, a favorite summer spot along the Great South Bay, was slapped with a swimming ban earlier this week after Suffolk County officials found bacteria levels above acceptable safety limits.

Health officials warned that swimming in poo water can result in gastrointestinal illness, rashes and infections of the eyes, ears, nose and throat, and urged residents to stay out of the water until testing shows it’s safe.

Meanwhile, beaches from Crystal River, Fla., to Cape Cod, Mass., and Ogunquit, Maine, have also been slapped with advisories tied to bacteria linked to fecal matter, threatening to spoil swimmers’ holiday fun.

The culprit? A nasty mix of urban runoff, sewage overflows and factory farm waste that’s been pushing dangerous pathogens straight into America’s waters, according to the nonprofit Environment America, the Daily News reports.

The group’s latest report paints a disturbing picture: more than 60% of all U.S. beaches, and 54% along the East Coast, had potentially unsafe contamination levels last year.

“In 2024, 1,930 of 3,187 beaches tested nationwide (61%) experienced at least one day when indicators of fecal contamination hit potentially unsafe levels — exceeding the EPA’s most protective standards,” the report warned.

Via Environment America

And if that wasn’t gross enough, Suffolk County officials are also telling locals to stay far away from Prestons Pond near Manorville, where a fresh bloom of toxic blue-green algae has made the water hazardous.

Contact with the slime can cause rashes, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and even trouble breathing, according to the New York State Department of Health.

*  *  *

Meanwhile check this shit out.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/31/2025 - 15:45

Meme Markets: Investing Vs Entertainment

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Financial markets have transformed; today, trading and speculation have merged into performance art. The “Meme Market” culture now permeates mainstream finance. There was once a time when CEOs reigned as icons leading powerful companies, but today, some executives who once managed companies now lead cults.

For example, Palantir, driven by “Palantarians,” rallied more than 100% this year. Its fans call CEO Alex Karp “Daddy Karp.” Simultaneously, they ignore fundamentals, such as a 520x P/E ratio, a 12.9 PEG ratio, and a 108x price-to-sales. Yes, the company can certainly grow into some of that overvaluation, but most likely not all of it..

Another group remains unyielding to Michael Saylor, who heads up the one flailing company of MicroStrategy, which has been rebranded to just “Strategy,” to signify its new course of converting the company into a leveraged play on bitcoin. He regularly encourages his base with memes to further promote his leverage strategy. His followers congregate on Reddit and X under tags like “Irresponsibly Long $MSTR,” which tells you these investors have also disregarded fundamentals, like a 210x price-to-sales ratio, in favor of a “story.”

These are not investment conversations; they are fandom rituals.

Speculation rides on leverage. As we showed recently, margin debt has exploded over the last two months to the highest level on record, exceeding $1 trillion.

Furthermore, options volumes at meme‑linked names are at records, with short-dated, zero-day-to-expiration (0DTE) contracts now accounting for more than 61 percent of daily S&P 500 option volume. Retail “meme market” investors are responsible for half to 60 percent of that. That sensation feels more like gambling than investing.

The term, coined by Howard Lindzon, “degenerate economy,” captures this shift.

“A ‘degenerate economy,’ or ‘degen economy,’ refers to a speculative and high-risk financial environment where the lines between investing, trading, and gambling are blurred, often accelerated by mobile technology and social media.”

Specifically, in a degenerate economy, financial activities like trading meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, and betting are treated as entertainment rather than a disciplined investment strategy. The thrill of the
“meme market” and the dreams of fast profits are difficult to resist. Howard Lindzon’s index catalogs companies thriving on speculative excess. It includes Robinhood, CME, and Bitcoin-linked stocks. That basket has advanced roughly 23 percent this year versus the S&P 500’s near 10 percent rise.

The “meme market” concept has gone viral. As demand for risk has surged, product providers (aka Wall Street) have been happy to oblige. From a return of SPACs to IPOs, a slew of new ETFs, extreme options, and even event betting. For example, the CME teamed with FanDuel to offer event betting, as Coinbase offers 10× leveraged perpetual futures. In other words, the retail markets now mirror casinos. With all that, it is unsurprising that retail trading volume has reached an all-time high as a percentage of total volume.

The question is, what could go wrong?

What Could Go Wrong With A “Meme Market?”

Entertainment-first markets distort the decision-making process. Investors respond to narrative instead of earnings, speculation instead of valuation. Leverage amplifies outcomes, and options magnify risk. In a ‘Meme Market,” bubbles can expand quickly and reversals can be severe. As we noted in last week’s #BullBearReport, valuations are a terrible timing metric as they are a function of investor sentiment in the short term. However, historically, high valuations have always been linked to a form of “Meme Market,” whether it was the 1920s “Golden Age,” the 1960s “Nifty Fifty,” or the 1990s “Dot.com” boom.

“Valuation is the capstone of proximate causes for a market top, and the one most indicative of the potential magnitude of any subsequent selloff. It’s well known that valuations are high for the US market, but I thought I’d update my aggregate indicator, which combines the main measures of long-term stock-market worth. It previously peaked in April, but has just made a new all-time high this month. Not a welcome sign if you’re a long-term bull.” – Simon White, Bloomberg

Investors have always been drawn to memes throughout the last century. The latest “memes” of cryptocurrency and Artificial Intelligence will eventually meet the same outcomes as reality. While fantastic, those fundamental realities will likely fall short of outrageous expectations. When that happens, the adrenaline-fueled chase will likely result in a “panic-driven” reversal. The psychology of the meme-market and options trading addiction is real, and there have been numerous reports that liken options trading to “crack‑cocaine” for individuals.

“A new type of addict is showing up at Gamblers Anonymous meetings across the country: investors hooked on the market’s riskiest trades. At Gamblers Anonymous in the Murray Hill neighborhood of Manhattan, one man called options “the crack cocaine” of the stock market. Another said he faced hundreds of thousands of dollars in trading losses after borrowing from a loan shark to double down on stocks.  And one young man brought his mom and girlfriend to celebrate one year since his last bet.” – WSJ

There are certainly many similarities between cocaine addiction and options trading.

When trading is driven by “sentiment” rather than fundamentals, problems tend to manifest. Such is particularly the case today when “social media sentiment” now leads price action. Algorithms trained on Reddit posts can outperform buy-and-hold in bull markets. How much better? About 70% better in 2023 and 84% in 2021. However, they underperformed during the subsequent market declines, but the influence is material.

“Meme Markets” is structured on entertainment psychology and can defy fundamentals for sustained periods. Retail-driven rallies lift meme-linked equities, and fans hold fast through volatility. The S&P 500 index, as discussed in “Buy Every Dip,” stays buoyed by passive flows that fuel the top-10 stocks in the index regardless of earnings growth.

“While passive flows now dominate the tape, investors are not making decisions. Michael Green noted that “the market has become a giant mindless robot” in describing the enormous, passive capital flows that automatically push stock prices higher. This metaphor refers to the mechanical, non-discretionary purchasing by index funds and other passive investment vehicles that dominate today’s market. The problem is that these flows are “valuation insensitive.” We made such a point in Jesse Livermore’s Approach to Speculation.” To wit:

Passive funds track indexes weighted by market capitalization. As stock prices rise, these funds buy more of the same names, regardless of valuation or fundamentals. This mechanical process has inflated the market value of the largest companies. The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now account for more than 38% of the index. That level of passive index concentration has not been seen since the peak of the dot-com bubble. While such concentration may be worrisome, as it elicits memories of the “Dot.com crash,” in the short term, this handful of companies’ performance determines the entire market’s direction.”

Investors mustn’t mistake recent market performance for stability. Meme-market rallies often concentrate within speculative corners. Therefore, the unwinding can intensify swiftly when the narrative shifts, whether triggered by macro shocks, monetary policy surprises, or regulatory whispers. Notably, institutional investors still apply fundamentals. That anchors the broad market to earnings, dividends, and macro data. High forward valuations, rising margin debt levels, and elevated short interest in meme stocks are all textbook signals warning of fragile structure.

An eventual reckoning will arrive. When it does, it will likely be swift and severe. Meme names will tumble, leverage will unwind, and volatility will spike. Like we saw in 2022, the broader market may dip modestly, but speculative components will suffer extensive damage. For long-term capital, the key will be to avoid the blowups while staying invested in fundamentals. And when entertainment fades, only those anchored in valuation, diversification, and discipline will hold through the storm.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/31/2025 - 15:10