Individual Economists

UBS: "French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu Might Not Make It Until Year-End"

Zero Hedge -

UBS: "French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu Might Not Make It Until Year-End"

The French blue-chip stock index CAC 40 is higher in Paris afternoon trading, reaching levels not seen since May 2024 and well above those of last week’s political crisis. Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s defeat of no-confidence votes in the French government late last week has certainly cooled the turmoil. However, one UBS analyst tracking the headlines from France believes that Lecornu “might not make it until year-end,” as a highly polarized parliament could make passing a budget nearly impossible.

UBS analyst Simon Penn briefed clients that Lecornu’s ability to pass a budget may suggest the political storm is far from over:

French PM Lecornu Might Not Make It Until Year-End

Political advisory group Forefront isn’t convinced French Prime Minister Lecornu will remain in office until the end of the year.

His basic problem is the same one that each of his predecessors has faced — he is going to struggle to pass a budget.

The Socialists were clear last week: they were willing to lend their support to get Lecornu through confidence votes, but that didn’t mean they supported his budget proposals. Forefront noted that the first thing Lecornu will need to do is enact the suspension of pension reform. He might be able to get that through the National Assembly, but the right-leaning Senate is opposed. If it fails in the Senate, it will go to a joint committee, and since that has a center-right bias, a decision to suspend pension reform will likely hinge on a raft of other requirements. This brings it full circle — the National Assembly is unlikely to accept those.

The latest data from the cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket shows that Lecornu’s odds of being ousted are 4% between now and the end of October, but rise to 38% by year-end.

Ignoring S&P Global’s cut of France’s credit rating last Friday due to political instability and the eurozone’s second-biggest economy’s inability to get its finances under control, the CAC 40 index has pushed higher, exceeding recent political turmoil levels and reaching highs not seen since May 2024.

“With the current downgrade, France falls below AA- from two of the three rating agencies, and it should result in forced selling from a number of institutional investors who are sensitive to ratings,” Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist for Europe at Jefferies, told clients.

Lecornu plans to reduce the budget deficit to 4.7% of GDP next year from 5.4% in 2025. This is the first step toward bringing it below the EU’s 3% ceiling and putting the country on a sustainable path. But the fractured parliament might make getting a budget passed near impossible. And back to UBS’s note above: Lecornu is likely on borrowed time.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 08:55

LA Ports: Imports and Exports Down YoY in September

Calculated Risk -

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.
The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

The first graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

LA Area Port TrafficClick on graph for larger image.

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.  
Imports were down 7% YoY in September, and exports were down 2% YoY.    
To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the second graph shows the rolling 12-month average.

LA Area Port TrafficOn a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic decreased 0.6% in September compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.   
Outbound traffic decreased 0.1% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.
This is the 10th consecutive month with exports down YoY.

Philly Fed Services Signals Slowdown In Jobs, Orders Continues

Zero Hedge -

Philly Fed Services Signals Slowdown In Jobs, Orders Continues

Desperate for any information amid the government shutdown-invoked vacuum of macro data, this morning we get a glimpse of more 'soft' survey data, showing that Non-Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed region softened overall,

Additionally, the indexes for general activity at the firm level, new orders, and sales/revenues fell, with the latter two turning negative.

The firms reported an overall decrease in full-time employment.

Worse still, firms expected no change for growth over the next six months at the firm level and a decline in activity for the region. The diffusion index for future activity at the firm level fell 12 points to 0.2, its lowest reading since April

On the potentially bright side, Prices Paid and Received indices both fell last month (but remain positive, suggesting expectations for higher prices)...

Finally, since the shutdown began, what little hard data we have seen is basically flat while soft survey data has deteriorated significantly...

Of course, the big one will come on Friday when CPI is due to be released, and vol markets are aware of it...

Dip-buyers may want to reflect on that.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 08:46

Global Stock Rally Pauses As Gold, Silver Slide From Record High

Zero Hedge -

Global Stock Rally Pauses As Gold, Silver Slide From Record High

US equity futures are flat, reversing a small overnight loss, with small caps seeing some underperformance in what looks more like profit-taking than material de-risking. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are unchanged after the S&P 500 notched its best two-day gain since June and the Nasdaq closed at a record high; premarket Mag7 / Semis are mixed but are net weaker with cyclicals underperforming as commodity names are underperforming due to a sharp overnight sell-off in precious metals, among the most notable moves today. Gold -2% and Silver -5% which appears to be de-risking in a low liquidity environment with both metals among the top YTD performing asset classes; gold set a new ATH yesterday. The rest of the commodity complex is seeing muted moves. Bond yields are flat to lower by 1bp as the USD sees a bid. The macro data focus is on Philly Fed. Coca-Cola, General Electric, Halliburton, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX and 3M are expected to report results before the market open. Steady subscriber gains and rising average revenue per member should keep Netflix which reports after the close, on track for 17.3% sales growth in 3Q.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Meta +0.5%, Amazon +0.3%, Microsoft 0.1%, Apple -0.2%, Nvidia little changed, Alphabet -0.1%, Tesla -0.3%)

  • Gold and silver companies are tumbling as the precious metals slipped from their latest records as global trade tensions ease.
  • Coca-Cola Co. (KO) climbs 2% after posting third-quarter sales growth that beat Wall Street expectations — a sign that consumers are snapping up the company’s beverages despite higher prices.
  • Core Scientific Inc. (CORZ) is up 2% after a key proxy adviser said a takeover bid by CoreWeave Inc. undervalues the data center company.
  • Crown Holdings (CCK) gains 8% after the packaging products company boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year, beating the average analyst estimate.
  • Elevance (ELV) gains 4% after the health insurer posted third-quarter profit that was ahead of expectations. The company also reaffirmed its adjusted earnings-per-share forecast for the full year, slightly above the average analyst estimate.
  • Fluor (FLR) rises 5% after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Starboard Value has amassed a nearly 5% stake in the engineering and construction company, citing people familiar with the matter.
  • General Electric Co. (GE) inches 1% higher after the company raised its full-year outlook for a second consecutive quarter as the jet-engine manufacturer cashes in on strong air-travel demand.
  • General Motors Co. (GM) climbs 8% after raising its full-year outlook and posting third-quarter results that topped Wall Street estimates on better—than-expected pickup truck sales and fresh relief from the Trump administration’s tariffs on auto parts.
  • Halliburton (HAL) rises 3% after the energy service company reported third-quarter revenue that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • NuScale Power Corp. (SMR) falls 4% after two analysts downgraded the nuclear small modular reactor company over concerns about its ENTRA1 deal.
  • Philip Morris (PM), maker of oral pouch product Zyn, rises 3% after narrowing its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year.
  • RTX Corp. (RTX) rises 5% after the company boosted its full-year profit outlook and reported third-quarter earnings that topped Wall Street expectations as sales and profit rose across its commercial aerospace and military hardware businesses.
  • Zions (ZION) gains 1% after saying its profit topped estimates despite a $50 million loss from an alleged fraud, helping reassure investors who’d feared the credit markets might be harboring some deeper pain.

In corporate news, Amazon Web Services resolved the issues that plagued its services for about 15 hours on Monday, an episode that highlighted how much of the internet is dependent on a single company. Goldman is building out its wealth-management division in Saudi Arabia, while PayPal is said to be taking over a stake in German digital commerce company Shopware from a Carlyle fund.

The S&P 500 logged its biggest two-day gain since June as the third-quarter earnings season gets into full swing, with about 85% of US firms beating profit estimates so far. While the US government shutdown has caused an economic data vacuum, creating uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s policy path, drawdowns have been short-lived, as investors see them as opportunities to add risk to their portfolios.

“Another day, another dearth of US data, as the government shutdown continues, with no end in sight,” said Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “To my mind, the path of least resistance continues to lead to the upside, and dips remain buying opportunities.”

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release September’s consumer price index on Friday, after a delay due to the government shutdown. The data, originally slated for Oct. 15, will give Fed officials a key reading on inflation ahead of their Oct. 30 policy meeting.  The data may take on greater importance due to the government shutdown-driven data drought, said Rick Gardner at RGA Investments. He still sees a Fed cut in October and noted that a key test will be Big Tech earnings, with investors looking for clarity on how spending on artificial intelligence is leading to profitability. 

“While earnings will remain in focus, particularly any updates on demand trends, international exposure post-tariffs, and their impact on profitability and capex, I think this week’s key events will be the inflation releases in the UK and US,” said Susana Cruz, a strategist at Panmure Liberum, “Both are still running hot and expected to rise further. Any upside surprises there could easily derail the rally.”

Everything is weird,” said Bobby Molavi, head of EMEA execution services at Goldman. All-time highs are everywhere and classic asset class correlations are breaking down as stocks continue to climb every “wall of worry,” he wrote. It’s ‘the rally no one trusts,’ according to Bloomberg’s Markets Live blog.

As we have explained time and time again, buy-the-dip behavior from retail traders and faith in the AI narrative are a key reason why this market just keeps grinding higher; throw in a constant relentless short squeeze and you get daily record highs.

The next big test for the tech-fueled rally comes as a deluge of companies - accounting for almost 15% of the S&P 500’s total market value - report this week. Netflix, General Motors, Coca-Cola and Texas Instruments are among today’s highlights. Of the 60 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, nearly 85% have beaten estimates.

Earnings aside, signs of easing trade tensions between the US and China continue to offer equities further support. Gold, a classic haven, dipped from its latest record ahead of the two sides returning to the negotiating table. Before those talks resume, Trump signed a landmark pact with Australian PM Anthony Albanese to boost America’s access to rare earths and other critical minerals, an effort to counter China’s tight grip on the sector. In other tariff news, small businesses challenging many of Trump’s global levies urged the Supreme Court to affirm lower court rulings that the import levies amount to a massive illegal tax.

Gold slumps, with spot prices falling by $94 to $4,262/oz, though recent precious metals volatility means it’s only hit the lowest since Monday. Silver prices are also slumping and on track for their biggest drop since April.

The selloff reversed in Europe too, with the Stoxx 600 erasing an earlier loss as real estate and utilities shares outperformed, while chemicals and mining shares lagged after prices of gold and silver slumped due to the stronger dollar. Among individual movers in Europe, Eurofins Scientific SE dropped 9% after third-quarter results. Edenred SE jumped as much as 15%, the most on record, after the digital platform for services and payments reported better revenue growth for the third quarter. Assa Abloy AB gained as much as 3.4% after the Swedish lock and entrance systems group reported reassuring results. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

  • Edenred shares rise as much as 15%, the biggest intraday spike on record, after the digital platform for services and payments reported better 3Q revenue growth than anticipated
  • Bper Banca jumped as much as 8% to the highest in 18 years after the Italian lender signed derivative contracts for a synthetic exposure to its own shares equal to 9.99% of its share capital, according to a statement
  • Getinge shares rise as much as 6.8%, to the highest in more than a year, after the Swedish health-care equipment firm reported better-than-expected earnings and sales for the third quarter
  • Assa Abloy gains as much as 3.6% to a fresh high, after the Swedish lock and entrance systems group reported solid and reassuring results
  • Segro shares rise as much as 3.9%, after the property investment and development company said occupier sentiment has improved, leading to the strongest quarter of pre-letting activity since early 202
  • Var Energi shares jump as much as 4.6% after the oil and gas company delivered cashflow and adjusted earnings ahead of expectations, tempered by a miss at the bottom-line
  • Eurofins Scientific shares fall as much as 10%, the most in a year, on continued softness of the French firm’s biopharma division
  • Nordnet falls as much as 8.9%, the most since June 2023 after the Swedish retail trading platform and bank’s third-quarter report missed expectations and revealed a SEK18 million one-time cost related to an administrative error
  • Tele2 shares fall as much as 6.7% after the Swedish telecom operator reported 3Q Ebitda that missed estimates, causing traders to take profits following a strong rally this year
  • OVH Groupe shares slide as much as 19%, the biggest drop in 18 months, after the IT services firm issued growth guidance for fiscal year 2026 that analysts found underwhelming

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks hovered near record-high levels, led by an extended rally in Chinese equities on optimism over a trade deal with the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed after rising about 1% earlier. Alibaba and BHP Group were among the biggest boosts. The CSI 300 Index for mainland shares gained more than 1%.  Japanese stocks were volatile and the yen dropped 0.5% after Sanae Takaichi won a parliamentary vote to become prime minister, opening the way for more fiscal spending. The benchmark Nikkei 225 had nearly hit 50,000 earlier Tuesday, Pictet Asset Management Japan Ltd. head of investment strategy Jumpei Tanaka said, adding that “some profit-taking likely emerged as a reaction to that earlier rally.” Chinese stocks extended their recent rally as anticipation grew over a potential deal ahead of President Donald Trump’s meeting with his counterpart Xi Jinping next week. Trump said said he expects the US to have a “really fair and really great trade deal” with China. Meanwhile, the Fourth Plenum underway in Beijing is being monitored for potential policy boosts. “I think investors feel good about the upcoming US-China trade resolution, against a backdrop of falling rates and structural AI demand growth,” said Vey-Sern Ling, senior equity adviser for Asia technology at Union Bancaire Privee. “There’s a lot to feel comfortable about and not many visible dark clouds on the horizon.”

In FX, the dollar is stronger and gaining against all G-10 peers. The yen is among the underperformers following the appointment of Japan’s new prime minister. The Swiss franc is not far from a decade-high versus the euro on haven flows.

In rates, treasuries are little changed, keeping yields within 1bp of Monday’s closing levels, amid similar price action in European bonds and recently active French-German spreads. The US curve is slightly flatter on the day. US stock index futures are little changed, holding Monday’s 1% advance following constituents’ quarterly results. US 10-year is near 3.97% after dipping as low as 3.96% overnight, underperforming.  There’s small and mixed moves across European bond markets, with bund yields lower at the long-end and little changed at the short. Gilts are rallying at the long-end despite an overshoot on borrowing.

In commodities, oil prices fluctuate, with Brent sitting around $61/barrel. Gold slumps, with spot prices falling by $94 to $4,262/oz, though recent precious metals volatility means it’s only hit the lowest since Monday. Silver prices are also slumping and on track for their biggest drop since April.

The US economic calendar calendar includes October Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity at 8:30am (-22.2, down from -12.3). Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the Oct. 29 Fed policy decision began Saturday

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini unch
  • Nasdaq 100 mini -0.1%
  • Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
  • DAX -0.1%
  • CAC 40 little changed
  • 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 3.97%
  • VIX +0.5 points at 18.72
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1211.97
  • euro -0.2% at $1.1622
  • WTI crude little changed at $57.57/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • USTR Jamieson Greer warned China not to retaliate against foreign companies helping the US to develop critical industries after Beijing sanctioned the American units of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean. BBG
  • BoJ officials see no urgency to hike the benchmark rate next week. The officials believe conditions are coming together for a rate hike as soon as December, but there is no conclusive factor to raise the rate on Oct. 30. BBG
  • US Director of Federal Housing Pulte said the Trump administration is opportunistically evaluating an offering for Freddie and Fannie, which could occur as early as the end of 2025.
  • US Senate Democrats are launching an effort to repeal a portion of Republicans' budget law that exempts certain "orphan drugs" from Medicare price negotiations: Axios
  • Japan’s benchmark Nikkei Stock Average neared the 50,000 mark on Tuesday, as foreign investors bet on the expansionary policies of Sanae Takaichi, who received parliamentary approval the same day to become the country’s first female PM. Nikkei
  • The longest-duration Japanese bonds are attracting relative-value hunters, suggesting there’ll be more flattening of the JGB curve, according to MLIV. BBG
  • Small businesses urged the Supreme Court to affirm lower court rulings that Trump’s global tariffs amount to an illegal tax on American companies to the tune of $3 trillion. BBG
  • The BOE has begun reaching out to financial institutions about conducting stress tests on the private credit market, people familiar said. BBG
  • Republican leaders on Capitol Hill are quietly ramping up talks within their senior ranks and with White House officials over how to structure and advance a potential extension of key Affordable Care Act insurance subsidies before the end of the year. Politico
  • The US Army asked Apollo, Carlyle, KKR and other PE firms to pitch financing models to help fund a $150 billion infrastructure overhaul. FT
  • ZION Q3 earnings report: Core PPNR beat driven by slightly higher NII, while expenses came in below. Credit performance outside of the two identified credits was solid noting that ex these charge off NCOs would have been 4bps. Despite the elevated credit losses in the quarter, ZION noted it anticipates the credit losses are an isolated incident, with further review of the portfolio not showing any incremental credit issues. (H/T GS Fins Trading)

Trade/Tariffs

  • US Trade Representative Greer said they will take action over Nicaragua's labour rights policies and he proposed additional duties of up to 100% on Nicaragua following the conclusion of a Section 301 investigation, while he proposed to suspend all of Nicaragua's benefits under the Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement, either immediately or phased in over 12 months.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks took their cues from the rally on Wall Street as the focus remained on US-China trade with some optimism following US President Trump's comments in which he stated that China has been respectful of them and although he continued to tout a November 1st deadline for additional tariffs, he also reaffirmed that he will be meeting with Chinese President Xi and thinks they will reach a 'fantastic deal'. ASX 200 climbed to a fresh record high with the advances led by the mining and resources sectors after Australia and the US signed a critical minerals agreement, and with mining giant BHP gaining following its quarterly production update. Nikkei 225 rallied and briefly approached to near the 50k level before fading some of the gains, while attention was on the PM vote in parliament where Abe-protege Takaichi was elected to become Japan's first female PM, and which is seen to potentially delay or slow the BoJ hiking rates. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were higher amid the hopes for an improvement in US-China trade relations and with the ongoing plenum where China is to map out its next five-year plan.

Top Asian News

  • Japanese PM Takaichi to speak at 14:00BST.
  • Japanese LDP leader Takaichi won the lower house vote (237 votes out of 465-seats) to become Japan's first female PM, as expected. It was separately reported that Takaichi is to appoint Satsuki Katayama as Finance Minister and Kimi Onoda as Economic Security Minister, while she will appoint Ryosei Akazawa as Trade Minister and Shinjiro Koizumi as Defence Minister, according to FNN.
  • Japan incoming Finance Minister Katayama says it is desirable for FX to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals; no comments at this moment when asked about BoJ hikes.
  • Japan's Finance Minister Katayama says he will continue with efforts to pass on prices and was asked to push forward tax credits with handouts.
  • BoJ is said to be closer to rate hike, but with little need to rush and is said to see no urgency to hike rates next week, according to Bloomberg

European equities (STOXX 600 +0.2%) are mixed and have traded choppy throughout the European morning. A lack of fresh catalysts and quiet stock-specific newsflow has led to indecisive trade so far. European sectors are split down the middle, with no clear out/underperformer today. Real Estate benefits from the relatively lower yield environment, joined closely by Utilities whilst Chemicals lags a touch.

Top European News

  • ECB's Lane says monetary policy transmission is progressing smoothly; makes sense to maintain a meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent approach to assessing the strength of monetary transmission at any given point in time.
  • UK reportedly explores private credit stress tests as risk worries grow, according to Bloomberg.

FX

  • A firm day for the broader Dollar and index, with some suggesting the ease of credit market concerns, and reinforcement by solid Zions Bancorp earnings excluding the fraud losses. Newsflow has been relatively quiet today, whilst on the trade front there is little to update on since Monday, although US President Trump kept a conciliatory tone whilst maintaining the November 1st threat of 100% additional tariffs on China. DXY resides in a 98.50-98.89 range with clean air seen until the 99 psychological level.
  • Subdued trade for the EUR in quiet newsflow with little action seen from ECB commentary as the clock ticks down to next week's ECB confab, with pricing firmly at a hold (98.4% chance). That being said, analysts at ING posit "not all the Governing Council may be entirely comfortable with an even stronger euro, even if direct comments on FX have been rather rare of late." EUR/USD falls further under its 100 DMA (1.1653) and trades in a current 1.1614-1.1655 parameter.
  • USD/JPY holds a firmer bias and moved back to the 151.00 territory amid the fresh record highs in Tokyo stocks, with focus on the parliamentary vote in which LDP leader Takaichi won to become Japan's first female Prime Minister; source reports that the BoJ have no urgency to hike next week will also be weighing on the JPY. Japan's incoming Finance Minister Katayama echoed the outgoing Finance Minister Kato, and said it is desirable for FX to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals; no comments at this moment when asked about BoJ hikes. USD/JPY resides in and at the upper end of a 150.47-151.77 range with the next upside level at the 151.87 mark.
  • Cable marginally softened and breached the 1.3400 level to the downside in the absence of any UK-specific catalysts. Though, action has seemingly been influenced by broader action in the USD in recent trade. The latest PSNB metrics printed shy of expectations, but above the OBR's own view from March; While elevated yields continued to push the borrowing figure higher, that narrative has improved from a Treasury perspective since October 10th. GBP/USD resides in a 1.3372-1.3416 range, with clean air seen until the Oct 15th low at 1.3315.
  • CAD is softer amid USD strength at the time of writing, although Loonie traders look ahead to CPI from the country. The headline is seen unchanged M/M (prev. -0.1%), while the annual rate is seen rising to 2.3% Y/Y from 1.9%. This is the last inflation report before the October BoC meeting.
  • Antipodeans are the G10 laggards amid the cautious risk tone after failing to benefit from the positive risk appetite overnight. NZD/USD is the laggard after slightly softer exports and credit card spending data overnight.

Fixed Income

  • USTs are firmer, moving directionally in-fitting with peers as outlined above. Thus far, to a 113-24 peak but with upside of just a handful of ticks at most. Ahead, the US docket is focused on several pertinent earnings releases and comments from Fed’s Waller; however, the blackout period is in force ahead of the October policy decision.
  • A contained start to the day, with Bunds initially firmer but only by a handful of ticks in a quiet early morning where newsflow was dominated by stock specifics and events in Japan. Since, benchmarks generally but initially OATs derived a bid from a Bloomberg article that BlackRock (BLK) and State Street (STT) have recently stopped using indexes with AA rating criteria as the benchmark, according to sources. Meaning that the firms will continue to be able to hold French debt even after the downgrade by S&P on Friday. This lifted OATs to a 123.29 peak for the season with gains of 17 ticks at most. No reaction to remarks from ECB’s Lane this morning. A speech/text that had some interesting points, but ultimately stuck to familiar lines on EZ monetary policy. Ahead, Lagarde and Nagel are scheduled with a text expected from the President.
  • Gilts are firmer today. The morning’s PSNB data showed a slightly lower borrowing figure than expected, though a touch above the OBR’s view from March, while the prior was subject to a revision lower. For the FY to September 2025, borrowing stood at GBP 99.8bln vs the GBP 92.6bln forecast by the OBR in March. Modest outperformance in Gilts this morning, seemingly a function of the slightly better than expected borrowing view. To a 92.92 peak with gains of 25 ticks at most. If the move continues, resistance from last week factors at 93.02 and 93.17. Ahead, BoE’s Bailey and Breeden appear before the House of Lords; however, as they are discussing reform since 2008, it remains to be seen whether the remarks will factor into the discussion around current policy.
  • JGBs are stronger overnight as markets awaited the parliamentary votes on the next Japanese PM and also acknowledged stronger demand at the latest climate-related auction.
  • Orders for Italy's new 7 year BTP Valore bond reach EUR 6bln since the start of the offer.
  • BlackRock (BLK) and State Street (STT) have recently stopped using indexes with AA rating criteria as the benchmark, via Bloomberg citing sources; this will allow exposure to French debt to be maintained.
  • UK sells GBP 1.5bln 1.5% 2053 Green Gilt: b/c 3.17x (prev. 3.2x), average yield 5.294% (prev. 5.169%), tail 0.8bps (prev. 0.8bps).
  • Germany sells EUR 0.733bln vs exp. EUR 0.75bln 1.30% 2027 Green Bobl and EUR 0.718bln vs exp. EUR 0.75bln 2.50% 2035 Green Bund.

Commodities

  • Crude is currently trading around the unchanged mark, and very much off worst levels, after a recent (albeit fleeting) pick-up in prices. Nothing really driving things at the moment for the complex, as Middle Eastern geopols take a backseat. More focus on Russia-Ukraine, after it was reported that President Trump's plans for a quick meeting with Russian President Putin may be stalled. Brent Dec'25 currently trading towards the upper end of a USD 60.58-61.20/bbl range.
  • Precious metals have been falling as the European session got underway, with spot XAU easing from USD 4,375/oz to a trough of USD 4,244/oz after the yellow metal formed a new ATH late in Monday’s session. XAG has slipped back below USD 50/oz as the precious metal space comes under pressure, but is currently off worst levels.
  • Base metals are slowly falling lower despite a lack of newsflow as markets await the meeting between US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. 3M LME Copper peaked at USD 10.73k/t before falling through Monday’s range and forming a low at USD 10.63k/t.
  • UBS expects oil prices to stabilise around current levels, though prices may come under some pressure should trade tensions escalate further.
  • MMG (1208 HK) says Las Bambas is now expected to achieve copper production of 400k tonnes in 2025 (vs prior guidance of 360k-400k tonnes)

Geopolitics

  • US President Trump's hopes for a quick meeting with Russian President Putin may be stalled, while the anticipated meeting between US Secretary of State Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has been put on hold, according to according to CNN citing a White House official.
  • Russian Foreign Ministry, on the meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rubio being postponed, says you cannot postpone what was never agreed upon, says the meeting requires preparation.
  • Russia's Kremlin says neither US President Trump or Russian President Putin named exact date on the Putin-Trump summit timing. Says they cannot postpone what wasn't scheduled. Both the USA and Russia said that careful preparation was needed which requires time. Peace with Ukraine is not easy.
  • Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov has agreed with US Secretary of State Rubio to continue with phone contact, Russia hasn't change its position since Anchorage, a halt at current frontline means to forget war causes.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am Philly Fed non-mfg Activity
  • Fed’s External Communications Blackout (October 18 - October 30)

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets got the week off to a strong start yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+1.07%) closing within 0.3% of its all-time high, whilst 30yr Treasury yields (-3.6bps) hit a 6-month low of 4.57%. The main catalyst was positive news on the trade side, coupled with signals that the US government shutdown might come to an end soon. Moreover, Brent crude oil prices (-0.46%) hit a 5-month low of $61.01/bbl, which helped to ease concerns about inflation too. So collectively, all those forces served to boost investor optimism, and managed to outweigh any lingering concerns about the regional banks.

In terms of the trade story, we’re now just over 10 days away from President Trump’s deadline to put additional 100% tariffs on China from November 1. But there were increasingly positive headlines that have led investors to expect that the higher tariffs will be avoided. Indeed, President Trump himself said to reporters in the Oval Office that “I think when we finish our meetings in South Korea, China and I will have a really fair and really great trade deal together.” And earlier in the day, NEC Director Kevin Hasset said on CNBC that “Our expectation is that Secretary Bessent is going to land this plane”, when it comes to the China trade negotiations. So that’s led markets to anticipate that some kind of truce will remain in place, and trade-sensitive stocks have continued to recover. Indeed, the Philadelphia semiconductor index (+1.58%) hit a new record yesterday. And if we look at Polymarket, it currently points to just a 10% likelihood that the 100% China tariffs will come into effect by November 1.

Meanwhile on the shutdown, there were also growing hopes for an earlier resolution. That was caused by comments from Kevin Hasset that the shutdown was “likely to end sometime this week”, and there was a clear shift in the Polymarket odds after those comments. For example, when we went to press yesterday, it still suggested there was a 45% likelihood that the shutdown would last beyond November 16, but those have since fallen to 29%. And overall, there is a 49% cumulative likelihood priced in that there will be a resolution by November 3rd. So, there’s been a clear shift in that probability distribution towards an earlier end to the shutdown, which has added to hopes that the regular flow of US data might resume soon. Bear in mind that today is day 21 of the shutdown, which now makes this the joint second-longest along with the 1995-96 shutdown, only behind the most recent 35-day shutdown in 2018-19.

Another positive catalyst came from the regional banks, as Zions Bancorp reported its earnings after the US close last night. Remember that its share price had fallen -13.1% last Thursday after it said it was exposed to alleged fraud, so there’d been a lot of jitters. But altogether, the results were largely positive, and its profits beat estimates despite a $56mn write-down of bad loans in Q3, including $50mn in alleged fraud tied to a CRE investor group. Since Thursday, its share price has recovered +10.7% in the last two sessions (+4.65% yesterday), and its share price rose roughly +3% in after-market trading as well following the results. Remember that we’ve got Western Alliance Bancorp reporting earnings after today’s close as well, but its shares also got a boost after-hours thanks to the positive sentiment from the Zion earnings call.

Ahead of that result, equities had already put in a strong performance on both sides of the Atlantic. The S&P 500 (+1.07%) continued its recovery, with the Magnificent 7 (+1.44%) leading the way, including a very strong performance for Apple (+3.94%) as it hit a new record. The S&P finished just off the highs of the day, and just less than -0.3% beneath its all-time high. Bank stocks also continued to pare back their losses from last Thursday, with the KBW Bank Index (+2.19%) and the KBW Regional Banking Index (+2.27%) both advancing. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+1.03%) closed less than half a percent beneath its own record a couple of weeks ago, with very strong gains for the DAX (+1.80%) and the FTSE MIB (+1.52%). So it was a strong day all round, and futures this morning remain positive, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.05%) and the DAX (+0.19%) both advancing.

Whilst equities saw consistent gains, the picture for sovereign bonds was far more mixed. The US Treasury curve flattened, with a muted move on the front-end. So 2yr yields (-0.2bps) closed very marginally lower at 3.46%, while longer-dated yields fell back further, with the 10yr yield (-2.9bps) falling back beneath 4% to 3.98%, whilst the 30yr yield (-3.6bps) hit a 6-month low of 4.57%. Meanwhile in Europe, French OATs initially underperformed as they reacted to the S&P credit rating downgrade on Friday, with their 10yr yields up +3.5bps in early trading before rallying though the day to ultimately close nearly unchanged (+0.2bps). This was just worse than the -0.3bps drop in German 10yr bund yields. So the Franco-German 10yr spread was ultimately little changed at 78bps as well.

Overnight in Asia, that equity advance has continued, supported by growing investor optimism on US-China trade. Indeed, both Japan’s Nikkei (+0.71%) and South Korea’s KOSPI (+0.19%) are at record highs this morning. And in mainland China, both the CSI 300 (+1.53%) and the Shanghai Comp (+1.20%) have posted even bigger gains this morning.

Lastly, gold prices (+2.46%) closed at another record high yesterday of $4,356/oz, leaving its YTD gains at +66%. So it remains on track for its strongest annual gain since 1979, when it rose +127% as inflation surged after the oil crisis that year. Indeed, the strongest year in the interim was a +31% gain in 2007, and it’s already risen by more than double that this year. Meanwhile, silver prices (+1.02%) closed at $52.45/oz, just shy of last week’s levels, taking its own YTD gains to +81%, the strongest since an +83% annual increase in 2010.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the UK public finances for September, and Canada’s CPI for September. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Lane, Escriva, Kocher and Nagel. Lastly, today’s earnings releases include Western Alliance Bancorp, Netflix, General Electric, Coca-Cola and General Motors.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 08:42

Vance Leads Newsom In Head-To-Head 2028 Matchup: Poll

Zero Hedge -

Vance Leads Newsom In Head-To-Head 2028 Matchup: Poll

Although the 2028 U.S. presidential race is just over three years away, betting markets are already sizing up candidates’ odds, including ineligible candidates like current U.S. President Donald Trump and Elon Musk.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, shows the current implied probabilities for the candidates of the 2028 U.S. Presidential election based on Polymarket data as of October 14, 2025.

2028 U.S. President Front-Runners: J.D. Vance vs. Gavin Newsom

Current U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance currently has the highest odds of being elected 2028 U.S. President at 28%, followed by Governor of California Gavin Newsom at 23%.

The data table below shows each candidate’s odds of winning according to Polymarket’s trading data, as of October 14, 2025. Not every candidate below 3% odds is included in the data table and visualization:

Following the two front-runners is congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with 7% odds, with the politician with the next-highest odds being current U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 3.5%.

An unexpected outsider with higher odds than Marco Rubio is Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson with 4.3% odds, who showcases the United States’ fascination with celebrity outsiders in politics.

Outliers and Ineligible Candidates

Along with unexpected outliers like ‘The Rock’, there are other candidates betting markets are considering who are currently ineligible.

Donald Trump, already serving two Presidential terms by 2028, still garners 3.3% odds—a reflection of his enduring influence over Republican voters.

Two of Donald Trump’s children, Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump, are among the eligible candidates who have slim chances at 1.3% and 1.9% respectively.

Elon Musk also appears with 1.1% odds despite being foreign-born and thus barred from the U.S. presidency.

To learn more about U.S. politics, check out this graphic showing the age of every U.S. Democratic senator on Voronoi, the new app by Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 07:45

Rare Earths Stocks Soar After Mega US-Australia Minerals Deal To Slash Dependence On China

Zero Hedge -

Rare Earths Stocks Soar After Mega US-Australia Minerals Deal To Slash Dependence On China

President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed a minerals deal on Monday at the White House to expand America's rare earth supply and diversify away from China's dominance in critical minerals used in EVs, semiconductors, and defense weapons. Beijing's weaponization of rare earth shipments (read Goldman's latest brief) to gain leverage over President Trump in trade negotiations underscores the urgency of diversification.

"In about a year from now, we'll have so much critical minerals and rare earths that you won't know what to do with them," President Trump said at the White House on Monday with PM Albanese. 

PM Albanese told the press that the U.S. and Australia will each invest over $1 billion within six months, targeting an $8.5 billion pipeline of joint mining and processing projects. 

He noted that Australia has an $8.5 billion "pipeline that we have ready to go.

The new minerals deal aims to diversify away from China, which has tightened export controls on rare earths and metals like gallium, germanium, and antimony

Following the signing of the deal:

  • Arafura Rare Earths Ltd. jumped up to 29% after the U.S. Export-Import Bank considered $300 million in financing for its Nolans project, alongside $100 million in conditional Australian government funding.

  • The Ex-Im Bank also issued letters of interest totaling $2.2 billion to six other miners, including VHM Ltd. (+30%) and Northern Minerals Ltd. (+19%).

  • Alcoa Corp. gained as much as 9.6% after its gallium joint venture with Sojitz received up to $200 million in equity funding.

  • Lynas Rare Earths Ltd., not yet a beneficiary, rose briefly 4.7%, while Iluka Resources Ltd. gained 9.1%.

"This is the most significant bilateral minerals cooperation we have seen between two major Western countries," Gracelin Baskaran, director of the Critical Minerals Security Program for CSIS, told Bloomberg by phone, adding, "Today's announcement really shows the U.S. isn't trying to address critical minerals alone. It's looking to find the right partners."

Analysts at Canaccord Genuity said the minerals deal "includes the use of economic policy tools and investment to support the supply of raw and processed critical minerals/rare earths, and accelerate the development of diversified, liquid, and fair markets.

President Trump is leading the effort - a national security one - to diversify away from China because these critical minerals are used in defense weapons.

In the U.S., we've been focused on popular rare earth stocks like USA Rare Earths (USAR) and MP Materials (MP), as the Pentagon quietly ramps up its billion-dollar mineral stockpiling spree. 

Recall that on July 11th, we wrote "The Coming Rare Earth Revolution And How to Profit" for our premium subscribers.

Eighteen months ago, we wrote in a note titled "Next Big Mineral Trade Revealed by Morgan Stanley" that MP Materials is the "one company that stands to benefit" from restoring America's rare earth supply chain. 

Rebuilding America's supply chains and diversifying away from China will ensure the U.S. is prepared for not just the 2030s but also the world fracturing into a bipolar state. Remember, the whole posturing now is called "Hemispheric Defense".

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 07:20

Severe Mpox Virus Strain Possibly Spreading In LA County, Officials Warn

Zero Hedge -

Severe Mpox Virus Strain Possibly Spreading In LA County, Officials Warn

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Health officials said that three cases of a rare strain of mpox, or monkeypox, were confirmed in California and that they are investigating whether the virus is spreading locally.

The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health said in a statement on Oct. 17 that it is “investigating the possibility of a local spread of Clade I mpox cases after confirming its second case in an adult with no recent travel to regions where this virus is typically found,” adding that the person was hospitalized and is now at home and recovering.

Los Angeles County Health Officer Dr. Muntu Davis said in a statement that officials have “concerns about possible local spread in Los Angeles County” after the three cases were confirmed.

We’re working closely with our partners to identify potential sources and understand how this potentially more serious type of the mpox virus may be spreading,” Davis said.

The cases of Clade I mpox confirmed in Los Angeles County are the first in the United States to be diagnosed without any known prior travel exposure. The strain, which is considered more deadly, has been spreading in the Democratic Republic of Congo and other African countries over the past few years.

Three days before the statement from Los Angeles County, the City of Long Beach said in a statement that it confirmed one case of Clade I mpox in a Long Beach resident who had no prior travel history. Long Beach is located in Los Angeles County but has its own health agency.

“While the overall risk of mpox clade I exposure to the public remains low, we are taking this very seriously and ensuring our community and health care partners remain vigilant so we can prevent any more cases,” Long Beach Mayor Rex Richardson said in the statement. “This underscores the importance of continued surveillance, early response, and vaccination.”

The risk to the public is low, said officials.

The first Clade I detection was also in California, occurring last November, according to the state health department.

Mpox is a rare disease caused by infection with a virus that is in the same family as the one that causes smallpox. It is endemic in parts of Africa.

Milder symptoms can include fever, chills, and body aches. In more serious cases, people can develop lesions on the face, hands, chest, and genitals.

One version of the virus, called Clade II, was the source of an international health crisis in 2022 as infections escalated in dozens of countries, mostly among males who have sex with other males. At one point, the United States was averaging close to 500 cases per day.

Long Beach health officials noted that Clade I may be more severe than the other variant and said that vaccines for mpox are available.

The California Department of Public Health issued a warning on Oct. 17 that the disease may be spreading in the state and is “primarily impacting communities of gay and bisexual men.”

As we continue to monitor the situation, it is crucial for Californians to stay informed and take preventive measures, especially persons who are more likely to be exposed to mpox,” Assistant State Public Health Officer Rita Nguyen said in a statement.

“Clade I mpox cases can be severe. Risk of severe disease and hospitalization are highest for people with weakened immune systems, so it’s critical to protect yourself by getting both doses of the mpox vaccine if you or your sex partner(s) may be at risk for mpox.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 06:30

64% Of Rwanda Politicians Are Women; Just 4% In Nigeria

Zero Hedge -

64% Of Rwanda Politicians Are Women; Just 4% In Nigeria

Data from the Inter-Parliamentary Union shows the extent to which differences in gender equality in parliament exist between countries, with only four nations currently representing an even or almost even 50:50 split of men to women in their lower house of parliament. These are Andorra, Mexico, Bolivia and the United Arab Emirates.

Meanwhile, as Statista's Anna Fleck details belowthere are only three countries worldwide with a higher ratio of women to men. These are Rwanda (63.8 percent share of women), Cuba (55.7 percent) and Nicaragua (55.0 percent).

 Who’s Leading the Race Towards Parliamentary Gender Parity? | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

A look at selected countries shows that gender parity in parliaments is lagging behind in European nations as well as in the United States, where only around 29 percent of House members where women most recently.

In Europe, Scandinavian nations lead, like Sweden at 45 percent, Finland at 45.5 percent and Iceland at 46 percent. Spain follows suit with 44.3 percent.

Lowlights in Europe include Hungary at 15.2 percent, Bosnia and Herzegovina at 19.1 percent and Bulgaria at 21.3 percent.

However, Germany is not far ahead at 32.4 percent.

Globally, Nigeria was among the countries with the lowest female participation in parliament at 4.2 percent.

Sri Lanka, Syria, Iran and Algeria all stayed below 10 percent. 

India reached 13.8 percent. The country is scheduled to up representation to 33 percent after its next census towards the end of the decade.

Japan stood at a slightly improved 15.7 percent, but still towards the bottom of the ranking.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 05:45

Sweden Tells Citizens To Prepare For "War Mode"

Zero Hedge -

Sweden Tells Citizens To Prepare For "War Mode"

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson said that NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) members should prepare their citizens for “war mode.” 

Jonson said that the possibility of a war with Russia is still on the table.

Jonson told RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND), as reported by RT, in an interview published on Sunday.

“To preserve peace, we must prepare ourselves both mentally and militarily for the possibility of war,” the official said. 

“A change in mentality is necessary: We must switch to war mode to resolutely deter, defend, and preserve the peace.”

Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson, Warsaw, Poland, April 3, 2025. © Foto Olimpik / NurPhoto via Getty Images

Moscow has long viewed the Ukraine conflict as a NATO proxy war aimed at undermining Russia’s security following decades of expansion.

Sweden is the bloc’s newest member, while Ukraine was 'promised' accession sometime in the future.

RT reports that The European Commission last week unveiled a roadmap outlining its plans to expand joint arms procurement to at least 40% by 2027.

The document emphasized the need to “invest more, invest together, and invest European,” citing global strategic shifts to other regions among “traditional allies.”

The push for greater defense spending aligns with calls from US President Trump, who has demanded that European members buy more American weapons – including for Ukrainian use.

Jonson justified such purchases, saying that Europe “simply doesn’t have or cannot yet produce” the necessary systems.

“Ukraine needs these assets fast,” he said.

“If Europe lacks them, it’s logical to procure them from the US.”

Recently, several American officials told the Wall Street Journal, according to a report by Yahoo News that Trump is putting much more pressure on the Ukrainian ruler Volodymyr Zelensky than he is on Russia.

Officials say that they have observed Trump’s “hesitation to push Putin, who has shown little interest in concessions needed for a deal.”

One Wall Street Journal source noted that “the White House has put more pressure on Kiev than on Moscow.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 05:00

EU Energy Ministers Want To Finish Ditching Russian Gas In Two Years

Zero Hedge -

EU Energy Ministers Want To Finish Ditching Russian Gas In Two Years

European Union energy ministers think they'll be able to phase out the import of Russian gas by 2028, and have backed a proposal that would begin the process by phasing out the contracts themselves for both pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) by Jan. 1, 2026. 

Gas pipelines at the Atamanskaya compressor station facility of Gazprom's Power Of Siberia project outside the far eastern town of Svobodny, in Amur region, Russia, on Nov. 29, 2019. Maxim Shemetov/Reuters

Current agreements may continue until June 17, 2026, while long-term contracts may would be cut off on Jan. 1, 2028.

That said, landlocked members states (Hungary, Slovakia) which have limited alternatives to Russia would be afforded some flexibility. 

If the proposed regulations are backed by the European Parliament, it would require member states to submit plans for how they will diversify their energy supplies if they're currently receiving (directly or indirectly) gas from Russia. 

Composed of national ministers from each member state, the Council of the EU said in a press release, "The same requirement to submit a national diversification plan will apply to those member states that are still importing Russian oil, with a view to discontinuing those imports by 1 January 2028."

Danish minister for climate, energy and utilities, Lars Aagaard, said "An energy independent Europe is a stronger and more secure Europe. Although we have worked hard and pushed to get Russian gas and oil out of Europe in recent years, we are not there yet," adding that it's critical for Denmark - which currently holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, secures "overwhelming support from Europe’s energy ministers for the legislation that will definitively ban Russian gas from coming into the EU."

The Council presidency will begin negotiations with European Parliament (720 lawmakers) before agreeing on the final text of the regulations.

In other words - two years will have come and gone by the time they're done talking...

That said, Europe has already significantly cut back on Russian gas;

Between Q1 2021 and Q2 2025, the EU-27 reduced Russian oil imports by more than 90 percent, cutting the share of Russian oil in total extra-EU imports from 29 percent to less than 2 percent. During the same period, Russia’s share of the EU’s natural gas imports dropped from 39 to 13 percent, driven mainly by a 52-percent reduction of natural gas imports in gaseous state. The value of liquefied natural gas imports from Russia actually almost tripled between Q1 2021 and Q2 2025 but still accounted for a smaller share of the EU’s total LNG imports in the most recent quarter. This is due to total LNG imports more than quadrupling during this period, as the EU replaced Russian pipeline gas with LNG from suppliers like the United States, Qatar and Norway. -Staista

As the Epoch Times notes further, when it comes to Hungary and Slovakia:

Following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the EU has sought to reduce its dependence on energy from Russia. According to an explainer on the European Council’s website, “Russia’s share of EU imports of pipeline gas dropped from over 40 percent in 2021 to about 11 percent in 2024.”

In 2024, Russia accounted for less than 19 percent of the EU’s imported gas and LNG combined.

While much of Europe has moved away from Russian energy and Brussels has imposed extensive sanctions on most Russian oil imports, Slovakia and Hungary still receive Russian supplies via the Druzhba oil pipeline.

Bratislava and Budapest maintain closer ties with Moscow than the rest of the bloc and have defended their continued purchase of Russian oil, saying alternatives are too expensive.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has repeatedly called for the EU to drop its plan to stop Russian energy from being imported, and his environment minister, Aniko Raisz, echoed those sentiments on Sept. 18.

“I think you know our position. We are one of the few landlocked countries in the region. So, our position has always been guided by the energy security for Hungary,” Raisz told reporters in Brussels.

“We know that we have important, important tasks ahead of us, but let’s not daydream.”

Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico (R) signs a mutual memorandum of cooperation with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (L) in the Mirror Hall of the Slovak Governmental Office in Bratislava, Slovakia, on April 28, 2025. Zuzana Gogova/Getty Images

Last month, Slovakia pushed back on U.S. President Donald Trump’s calls for Europe to curb Russian oil imports.

“We don’t have any other options which could be sustainable and also for the price to be reasonable,” Slovak Foreign Minister Juraj Blanar told Reuters during an interview on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly on Sept. 24.

It takes time to diversify this. So that’s why we are calling for some kind of empathy.”

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Sept. 24 that the country will not stop buying Russian oil.

“We are a landlocked country,” Szijjarto told ATV television in an interview in New York City, where he was also attending the U.N. General Assembly. “It would be great if we had access to the sea; we could build an oil refinery or an LNG terminal on the coast and cover the entire world market. But that’s not the case.”

Guy Birchall and Owen Evans contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 04:15

He Co-Founded Wikipedia, Now He Says The Site Needs A Radical Change

Zero Hedge -

He Co-Founded Wikipedia, Now He Says The Site Needs A Radical Change

Authored by Jan Jekielek and Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times,

Wikipedia, a popular online encyclopedia millions of people treat as an authoritative source of information, is systemically biased against conservative, religious, and other points of view, according to the site’s co-founder, Larry Sanger.

Larry Sanger, co-founder of Wikipedia and former philosophy professor, among stacks of reference books at a library in Columbus, Ohio, on March 26, 2007. Kiichiro Sato/AP Photo

Sanger, 57, who now heads the Knowledge Standards Foundation, believes Wikipedia can be salvaged either by a renewed emphasis on free speech within the organization or by a grassroots campaign to make diverse viewpoints heard.

Failing that, Sanger said, government intervention may be required to pierce the shell of anonymity that now protects Wikipedia’s editors from defamation lawsuits by public figures who believe the site portrays them unfairly.

In an Oct. 9 interview with Jan Jekielek, host of EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders,” Sanger discussed Wikipedia’s derailing and what could get the site back on track.

Systemic Bias

Wikipedia, launched in 2001, was co-opted by a globalist, academic, secular progressive worldview in the early 2000s, Sanger said. He added that the viewpoint monopoly accelerated following the 2016 U.S. presidential election, when many media outlets began to abandon the notion of impartiality.

Though the site is overseen by the nonprofit Wikimedia Foundation, Wikipedia describes itself as a self-governing project and states “its policies and guidelines are intended to reflect the consensus of the community.”

Sanger said that eventually, the site’s original neutrality rules, which he authored, were rewritten to instead forbid “false balance.”

“Basically, it’s required now, even for the sake of neutrality, that they take a side when [they believe] one side is clearly wrong,” Sanger said. “Pretensions of objectivity are out the window.”

One way this is enforced is through a color-coded rating system that favors or bans certain sources, Sanger said.

“You simply may not cite as sources of Wikipedia articles anything that has been branded as right wing,” he said. “I don’t think that The Epoch Times, for example, is particularly right wing, but it is colored red on this list.”

Information from some “green” sources is taken as fact and repeated without attribution, Sanger said.

Sanger, who has long campaigned for a restoration of free speech and accountability on the platform, said many people continue to think of Wikipedia as neutral and accurate.

“Even now, people are still sort of waking up to the reality that Wikipedia does, on many pages … act as essentially propaganda,” he said.

As evidence, Sanger listed a host of public figures, including novelist Philip Roth, journalist John Seigenthaler Sr., and filmmaker Robby Starbuck, who complained to him that they were misrepresented on Wikipedia.

In 2022, Wikipedia deleted its page on U.S. Senate candidate Kathy Barnette, a Republican, saying she was not a notable person. The page was later restored.

Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Republican candidate Kathy Barnette speaks during a Republican leadership forum at Newtown Athletic Club in Newtown, Pa., on May 11, 2022. In 2022, Wikipedia deleted its page on Barnette, saying she was not a notable person. The page was later restored. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

The same year, editors deleted an entry for Hunter Biden’s investment company, Rosemont Seneca Partners, saying it was not notable. An editor said keeping the page online could turn it into “a magnet for conspiracy theories about Hunter Biden.” That editor didn’t elaborate or provide any evidence.

Sanger likens the intellectual takeover of Wikipedia’s content to the “long march through the institutions,” a communist tactic of taking over a society by gaining control of essential institutions, including media, education, and government.

“Wikipedia is one of the institutions that the left marched through,” Sanger said.

Wikipedia did not respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment.

Lack of Transparency, Accountability

The way Wikipedia is organized creates a self-perpetuating cycle that Sanger described as an “irrational bureaucracy.”

He said the application of Wikipedia’s editorial rules has become a way to enforce ideological conformity and that some rules need to be revived and others abolished.

One problem is the platform’s policy of preferring secondary sources over primary or original sources. This is contrary to the approach of journalists and higher education institutions, who favor original sources, such as direct quotes from public figures, documents written by historical figures, and original research.

Wikipedia, by contrast, favors sources that have already interpreted original sources, such as magazines and newspapers.

“As a former academic, I find that to be absurd,” Sanger said.

He recalled an incident in which Roth told Sanger he asked Wikipedia to correct its page mentioning the origin story of a character in his book “The Human Stain.”

Though Roth told Wikipedia directly how he created the character, the site’s editors refused to update the page, preferring to rely on a speculative account published in The New York Times. Roth then wrote an article about the matter in The New Yorker, Sanger said, giving Wikipedia a secondary source for what the author had told them directly.

“There’s something really ridiculous about that,” Sanger said.

Novelist Philip Roth in 1967. Roth is among a list of public figures that Sanger mentioned who have complained to him that they have been misrepresented on Wikipedia. Bernard Gotfryd/Public Domain

The anonymity of the majority of Wikipedia’s 62 most influential editors perpetuates the problem, Sanger said, noting it creates a situation in which no one is held responsible for the potential harm the site’s content may cause.

“Eighty-five percent of them are anonymous. So you can’t sue them,” Sanger said.

Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act of 1996 shields companies from lawsuits related to user-generated content, meaning the Wikimedia Foundation cannot be sued either.

Ideas for Reform

On his website, Sanger outlines a series of ideas for returning Wikipedia to its original stance on fairness and free speech. A handful of his ideas center on increasing transparency into site management, such as revealing who Wikipedia’s leaders are, allowing the public to rate articles, ending decision-making by consensus, and adopting a legislative process for determining editorial policy.

Wikipedia’s current policies effectively make Wikipedia insular and ideologically exclusive, according to Sanger, who believes determining policies in an open forum could expose the site to other viewpoints.

Sanger’s other suggestions focus on free speech, such as enabling competing articles on the same subject, abolishing source blacklists, reviving the original neutrality policy, and ending the indefinite blocking of some editors.

Sanger also calls on the site to repeal the “ignore all rules” policy, which he created in Wikipedia’s early days. The rule was intended to encourage editors who were nervous about amending articles to simply focus on the task at hand.

“That was since made into a rule that is used by insiders to exert control over the newbies. So it’s, again, entirely inverted,” Sanger said.

A computer screen shows Larry Sanger’s website on Oct. 16, 2025. Sanger said the way Wikipedia is organized creates a self-perpetuating cycle that he described as an “irrational bureaucracy.” Oleksii Pydsosonnii/The Epoch Times

How Change Could Arise

More broadly, Sanger said change could come in one of three ways.

First, the Wikimedia Foundation could voluntarily end the ideological monopoly.

“Centrists and libertarians and Republicans and conservatives, religious people, religious Hindus and Jews and Christians, Falun Gong, they should all be able to participate,” Sanger said.

Failing that, Sanger said a public campaign seeking fairness might move the site to change.

“I’m going to set up a letter of protest,” Sanger said. “I’m going to try to circulate this to a lot of prominent people who have been wronged in various ways by Wikipedia.”

He invites others to contact the Wikimedia Foundation directly to make their feelings known.

As a last resort, Sanger said Congress could intervene by creating an exception to Section 230 that would enable a site to be taken down if it published defamatory material. A precedent exists, according to Sanger, who cited a 2018 law that created a similar exception for websites used to organize human trafficking.

“Even if the people who run the website aren’t doing the human trafficking, if it’s being organized on the website, they can still be sued,” Sanger said.

“Wikipedia really does need some reform,” Sanger said.

Though he’s hopeful the site may adopt his proposals, he acknowledged it may not happen.

“They might find ways that are more palatable to them,” he added. “[If so,] I’d be all in favor of that.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 22:35

For The First Time, More Schoolchildren Worldwide Are Obese Than Underweight

Zero Hedge -

For The First Time, More Schoolchildren Worldwide Are Obese Than Underweight

For the first time ever, more children and adolescents aged 5 to 19 worldwide are obese than underweight.

As Statista's Calentina Fourreau details below, according to UNICEF, around 188 million schoolchildren and adolescents worldwide are obese, while only around 180 million are underweight. In total, more than 420 million children of all ages are overweight. At the same time, an estimated 370 million children globally are underweight, almost half of them under the age of five and suffering from stunting or wasting due to food shortages and poor nutrition.

 For the First Time, More Schoolchildren Worldwide Are Obese Than Underweight | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

This year's UNICEF report on child nutrition sheds light on the reasons behind this long-standing reversal.

According to the report, ultra-processed, sugary and energy-dense food has been replacing fruits, vegetables and protein in children's diets, leading to potentially long-lasting health issues.

The UN sees this as directly linked to aggressive marketing by food companies, which, according to the report, countries around the world should counter with legislative changes, clear labelling, as well as targeted taxes.

In countries in the Global South in particular, growing prosperity has been accompanied for years by an increase in the consumption of unhealthy foods and thus the spread of obesity.

In the 5- to 9-year-old age group, there have been more obese than severely underweight children since 2019.

This change is predicted for older children and adolescents in 2028 and 2029, respectively.

While 60 per cent of adolescents between the ages of 15 and 19 worldwide consume more than one sweet drink or food item per day, the proportion in Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, and East Asia already exceeds this average.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 22:10

Who's Most Affected By Federal Cuts To DEI And EBT

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Who's Most Affected By Federal Cuts To DEI And EBT

The inherent threat of socialist programs rests in the fact that they can be used by a political party or a politician as a means to bribe voters from certain demographics to support destructive policies in exchange for handouts.  The Democratic Party understood this well when they introduced "The Great Society" welfare programs under President  Lyndon B Johnson in the 1960s. 

The idea?  Primarily to secure the votes of minorities and people under the poverty line in the US for the Democrats for generations by offering taxpayer funded subsidies that would eventually make these groups dependent on the government for their very survival.  Specifically, the welfare system lured in black women and single mothers, offering increasing incentives per child as long as there was no father in the picture. 

This encouraged black women to have multiple children out of wedlock and increased their divorce rate from 17% in 1960 to 48% in 2024.  Single mother households in the black community skyrocketed from 20% in 1960 to 65% in 2024.  Compare this to the white community in the US, which has an 18% single mother rate. 

Economist Thomas Sowell cites the Great Society programs and endless welfare as more destructive to black Americans than any other factor in US history, including the legacy of slavery that progressive activists often rant about.

In the past decade, welfare privilege took a backseat to Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) efforts.  Black women received overwhelming special treatment in college admissions (until 2023 when the Supreme Court stepped in) as well as job applications.  Schools and corporations were given access to government subsidies in exchange for increasing their minority quotas.    

DEI also gave black women preferential access to the jobs market through a multitude of subsidies offered to corporations.  These included tax cuts through the Work Opportunity Tax Credit and Affirmative Action.  Government programs, largely created by Democrats, funded a 103% jump in black female employment in white collar jobs from 2010 to 2024.    

The problem is, many of these women did not get those jobs based on ability, they got those jobs simply because of racial identity.  What happens when the government stops pumping cash into special privileges?  The result is a mass exodus of DEI workers because they no longer have any value for the companies that hired them.  It's a catastrophe for women that relied on handouts for so long. 

When Uncle Sam is no longer your sugar daddy, what do you do?

Over 300,000 black women have reportedly lost their jobs since February and the ending of DEI initiatives is cited as the most likely cause.  The black female unemployment rate has spiked to nearly 7%. 

Black women (and single mothers in general) have also been hit hardest by cuts to SNAP benefits (EBT). 

The percentage of black households on SNAP benefits in 2024 was around 25% (compared to 8% of white households).  Approximately 1.3 million of these families are slated to lose benefits this quarter.  Many more will lose benefits if the government shutdown continues into November and the programs run out of money.

The change has caused a panic among recipients who complain that they are required to apply for or hold a job in order to get the benefits back.

Critics of DEI argue that the disruption of subsidies is a reckoning for black women and single mothers after at least 15 years of life on easy mode.  Democrats argue that DEI is similar to "reparations"; a transfer of wealth to make up for slavery and segregation.  Regardless of the supposed effects of historic "inequality", a society cannot function based on "fairness", because fairness is largely subjective. 

Only merit keeps the world running smoothly, and it would appear that the black female community is learning quickly that merit matters far more than skin color.

*  *  *

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 21:20

Japan Eyes Letting Banks Hold And Trade Bitcoin As Crypto Adoption Grows

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Japan Eyes Letting Banks Hold And Trade Bitcoin As Crypto Adoption Grows

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is reportedly considering reforms that would allow domestic banks to acquire and hold digital assets, including Bitcoin, for investment purposes. 

This would be a drastic move away from the conservative stance established in 2020, when local banks were barred from holding crypto due to concerns over volatility and financial stability.

Under the proposed framework, banks could trade digital assets similarly to stocks and government bonds, with specific safeguards designed to ensure their financial soundness. The FSA plans to develop risk management protocols to mitigate the potential impact of sudden price swings on banks’ balance sheets.

The reforms are expected to be discussed soon at a working group meeting of the Financial System Council, an advisory body to the Prime Minister. 

Officials are reportedly examining mechanisms that would allow banking groups to register as licensed cryptocurrency exchange operators. 

Back in 2020, Japan enforced strict crypto rules through amendments to the Payment Services Act (PSA) and the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (FIEA). These laws established a comprehensive framework governing crypto asset service providers, custodial businesses, and derivatives trading. 

Japan as a safe crypto environment

By involving established banks, regulators hope to create a safer environment for crypto investment while expanding access to digital assets across Japan.

The timing of the proposed reforms comes as Japan faces significant economic challenges.

The country carries a debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 240%, among the highest in the world, which has prompted policymakers to explore tools to manage financial pressures, including low interest rates and targeted regulation.

In this context, digital assets may offer investors alternative avenues for returns outside traditional financial systems, potentially boosting adoption.

Japan’s crypto market has grown rapidly in recent years. As of February 2025, over 12 million cryptocurrency accounts were registered in the country, representing a roughly 3.5-fold increase from five years prior. 

Major Japanese banks have already signaled their interest in expanding crypto services. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., and Mizuho Bank have collaborated to issue stablecoins pegged to both the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar.

A great example of Japan’s booming crypto market comes from Metaplanet. Metaplanet has acquired and held Bitcoin as a treasury reserve while launching Bitcoin-backed financial products to generate income in Japan’s low-yield market. 

The company raises capital through equity and preferred shares, similar to Strategy, to fund its Bitcoin purchases. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 20:55

One Third Of Americans Have More Credit Card Debt Than Savings

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One Third Of Americans Have More Credit Card Debt Than Savings

One in three Americans now have more credit card debt than emergency savings, according to the latest survey by financial services company Bankrate.

As Statista's Anna Flecks shows in the chart belowthis is up ten percentage points from 2011, when the company first started polling the question.

Meanwhile, around 53 percent of respondents said that their savings were currently exceeding their credit card debt.

This is down two percentage points from the same time last year, but slightly up from 2011.

Around one in ten Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck in 2025, not making any debt or saving up money.

 One Third of Americans Have More Credit Card Debt Than Savings | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Millennials were the most likely to say that they had tapped into their emergency savings over the past 12 months.

The most common uses for emergency savings among all groups were unplanned emergency expenses, such as car repairs or medical bills, followed by monthly bills, including rent and mortgages, followed by day-to-day expenses such as food.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 20:30

New Generation Of Industries Emerges In Texas As Rare Earths Race Ignites

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New Generation Of Industries Emerges In Texas As Rare Earths Race Ignites

Authored by Dylan Baddour via Inside Climate News (emphasis ours),

Major oil companies are drilling in East Texas again, but not for oil. This time, they're after lithium for batteries and other rare elements.

Chevron and Halliburton announced East Texas projects this summer. Exxon has acreage across the border in Arkansas. Smackover Lithium, a joint venture of a Norwegian oil giant and a Canadian miner, announced in late September the discovery of the most lithium-rich fluids ever reported in North America, measured deep beneath its Texas claims in a massive brine deposit called the Smackover Formation.

"It's ripe for development," said Jamie Liang, a former Wall Street banker and founder of Houston-based lithium startup TerraVolta, which is developing a lithium refinery on the Smackover with federal support. "There's tremendous growth potential."

Lithium mining is one of several mineral industries emerging in Texas as part of broad federal efforts to urgently establish American production of the materials required for advanced manufacturing, from batteries and solar cells to wind turbines, microchips and cruise missiles. 

Competition with China looms over this effort. For much of this year, the world's two largest economies have been locked in trade tensions— and much of the ire is linked to minerals used in technology. This month, China announced new export controls on critical mineral products, including lithium battery components. President Trump, in social media posts, described China as "very hostile" and threatened to impose export controls on critical software and add 100 percent tariffs to Chinese imports. 

Near Texarkana, the chase for lithium is backed with robust federal support. Liang's TerraVolta received $225 million from the U.S. Department of Energy in 2024 for its lithium refinery complex. This year the project was selected for fast-tracked permit review. 

It will pump up the naturally metallic super-salty fluids from the Smackover, extract lithium and other minerals and then inject the leftover liquids back underground. At least two other lithium refineries are planned in the area and companies have leased tens of thousands of acres for drilling. More will likely follow as long as lithium prices stay strong. 

"There's going to be a very large-scale infrastructure buildout," Liang said. "You're going to be drilling wells. You're going to need those service companies. You'll need pipelines."

Elsewhere in Texas, a mine is planned near El Paso for the rare metals used in magnets for electric motors. On the rural Gulf Coast, the Department of Defense has invested almost $300 million in a project that would process rare metals like samarium, used in jet engines, guided munitions and stealth technology. From Houston's petrochemical complex to the Permian Basin, a flurry of startups, oil majors and mining giants intend to recover minerals from industrial waste like coal ash, discarded electronics, mine tailings and oilfield wastewater in hopes of accelerating U.S. mineral supplies. 

Presently, the United States produces a dribble of the raw materials. China broadly owns the global production lines, following decades of investment and securing a dominance that has raised national security concerns as well as financial risk. 

The United States has just one operating lithium mine, in Nevada, where a second mine with government backing expects to begin production in 2027. Only one lithium refinery operates in the country, on the Gulf Coast of Texas. 

"Our exposure to China is unacceptable," said Douglas Wicks, a former program director at the Advanced Research Projects Agency of the Energy Department. It raises threats that the outbreak of conflict could leave the United States cut off from essential supply chains.

That's the biggest reason why federal agencies are pushing so hard to play catch-up and boost American mining, Wicks said. As geopolitical tensions squeeze the flow of globalized commerce, Washington hopes to challenge Beijing's monopolies in a battle of extraction.

"I think American industry can outproduce them," said Wicks, who retired this year. The United States has "the deposits to do this."

However, the United States has to contend with China's gargantuan economy where the state owns key industries and provides subsidies, preferential finance schemes and other market support. Still, Wicks said, the United States knows how to move quickly. Just consider the recent evolution of American oil and gas. Technical innovations and loosened environmental standards in the shale revolution turned the United States from the world's largest importers of oil and gas to a major exporter in barely over a decade. Wicks believes the United States can transform again.

In 2023, under the Biden administration, the Pentagon was ordered to establish mineral supply chains independent of China. Since then, billions of dollars have flowed to mining and processing projects across the country, spurring a rush of prospectors and entrepreneurs hoping to cash in on federal grants. 

Wisk said, "Now there's a big push in Texas to ask: 'Is there something else under the ground other than oil and gas?" 

Tiny Concentrations, Big Mines

In the desert of far-west Texas, a company called Texas Mineral Resources Corp. (TMRC) had plans to dig for rare earth elements at a 950-acre Round Top Mountain site. The company won its first Defense Department contract in 2015. In January it reported a "breakthrough," producing a sample of high-purity dysprosium, which is used in semiconductors and electric vehicle motors. .

These rare elements aren't actually hard to find. They're all over the world, but they exist in tiny concentrations that require a tremendous amount of effort to extract in significant volumes. The process also generates large waste streams.

TMRC had said it would crush up 20,000 tons of rock a day. The material then would soak for a month in pools of diluted acid and undergo a series of electromagnetic processes to separate and cull the much-desired minerals. According to TMRC, the rocks hold 15 rare earth elements and other metals including lithium, gallium, hafnium, zirconium and beryllium.

Some processed byproducts "are expected to show hazardous waste characteristics," and "the waste may contain naturally occurring radioactive material," according to a 2019 economic assessment by TMRC. It noted "potential impacts to water quality resulting from mine operations and the storage of mine waste." The operations are located in Hudspeth County, home to about 3,400 people, according to the latest census. 

However, financial analysts have warned about TMRC's viability, amid reports of a growing deficit and lack of revenue. In July, according to analyst reports, TMRC had a "severe liquidity crisis." 

The Round Top site is not an anomaly and, as TMRC struggles, other miners could step in, according to Brent Elliot, a geologist with the Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas at Austin, the state's official geological survey. There are "many Round Top-like igneous rocks in west Texas to explore," he said, noting that a recent survey of the area "has shown some hot targets that I'll go out and investigate." 

Holiday O'Bryan, a 22-year-old PhD student at the University of Texas, plans a career in mining. At a recent conference in Austin on mineral industries, she pointed out that most mining related to new technologies occurs in faraway countries, which often have lower environmental standards and enforcement. America's surging investment in extraction should be seen in context of the clean innovations it will support. Mining operations will change the landscape—particularly as the Trump administration cuts backs on regulations of federal land—and no one should be surprised by the compromises that the race for rare earths will demand, she said. 

"You have to have extraction for these technologies to work," she said. "In the age of the green energy transition that doesn't fly very well for someone who is trying to protect the environment."

U.S. Mining Losses

Before 1990 the United States dominated the world's mineral markets. But domestic production dropped that decade, in part, because of rising environmental protections at home and enticing low-cost foreign production possibilities. New industries and products emerging in the mid-2010s—smartphones and Tesla cars among them—prompted a re-think of the American economy and future needs. Mining had become a lost opportunity. 

"People started looking at what you actually need to be able to build things like electric vehicles," said Michelle Michot Foss, fellow in energy, minerals and materials at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy. "We started realizing, oh my gosh, we don't produce any of this stuff."

In recent years, it became clear that China had invested in and developed a strategic market, she said. The first Trump administration, within its first year, assessed mineral production as a national security matter. 

A federal mandate was laid out in a 2017 Trump executive order, "A Federal Strategy To Ensure Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals." In 2018, 35 minerals were designated "critical" for vulnerable supply chains and essential economic functions.

Federal funding for mineral industries expanded at pace during the Biden administration. The 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill and the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act injected billions of dollars into projects around the country. Notably, the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act ordered the military to remove and replace Chinese-processed minerals from its processes within four years, sparking a race to rebuild complex supply chains.

Amid escalating trade tensions in 2024, China banned exports of several key minerals to the United States.

The second Trump Administration so far has allocated billions more dollars toward mineral industries, opened federal lands to mining exploration, ordered expedited permitting for certain projects and imposed tariffs on imports from more than 90 countries. China responded with export controls on 17 minerals used in military manufacturing. 

The Modern War Institute at West Point military academy has called that, "a shot across the bow of the U.S. defense industrial base." 

Can America fill the gap? It won't be easy, said Foss of Rice University. As the U.S. mining sector faded, so did its talent, expertise and a workforce pipeline. 

"Nobody knows anything about this," Foss said. "Not even in the agencies themselves are there good metallurgists anymore… except for down in the bowels of USGS."

The United States will have to develop more than mines to secure a position in global mineral markets. It needs midstream and downstream industries to process extractions—or the raw material will have to be shipped to China, which has a proficient processing capacity. 

Rare earth elements are critical components of the advanced magnets used in electrical motors and generators. For every megawatt of generating capacity, a wind turbine requires 180 kilograms of neodymium, 17 kg of dysprosium and 7 kg of terbium, according to a 2023 report from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at the Energy Department. 

Notably, the first large-scale lithium refinery in the United States is owned by Tesla, the electric car manufacturer, and located near Corpus Christi, Texas. 

Launched in December, Tesla's plant imports ore from Canada's only lithium mine for processing into battery-grade material. It will eventually use eight million gallons of water per day. That might be difficult given the water shortages there.

About 70 miles north of Tesla's refinery, another rare earths processing plant, a joint project between an Australian miner, Lynas, and the Defense Department, is also planned. 

The Defense Department has invested $288 million since 2021 into Lynas Rare Earths Limited's plans for a processor near the tiny town of Seadrift, on the shore of San Antonio Bay. If completed, the mining company would oversee the country's first processor for elements such as samarium, used in ultra-high-temperature magnets for spacecraft, satellites, missile guidance systems, stealth aircraft and electronic warfare technologies. 

But there's a hitch, again, tied to water issues. Lynas aims to discharge wastewater through an existing treatment system at a nearby Dow Chemical plant, according to a draft environmental impact statement dated November 2023. That same month, Texas' environmental regulators issued a draft wastewater permit amendment for Dow, which would increase daily discharge limits at one of its outfalls from 17 million to 42 million gallons. 

The draft permit amendment did not mention Lynas or the reason for the sudden rise in daily discharges.. 

Diane Wilson, a 78-year-old environmental activist in Seadrift who has battled Dow for decades, filed a challenge to the permit amendment, questioning Dow's need. Dow's existing permit allows for about 80 harmful chemicals and metals in the wastewater.

To her surprise, Dow withdrew its application in February this year, shortly after state regulators recommended hearing Wilson's request. 

"They obviously did not want us going to a hearing," Wilson said about Dow and the mining company. "There is a real secret element here."

Two months later, Lynas announced its project faced rising costs due to "wastewater challenges," according to industry news reports. In August, its annual results statement noted "there is significant uncertainty as to whether the construction of the heavy rare earth processing facility at Seadrift, Texas will proceed and, if so, in what form." 

That's when Wilson said she surmised the Lynas mining project was behind the permit request. 

Lynas and Dow did not respond to a request for comment. 

Minerals from Waste 

In the heart of Houston's industrial complex, another Australian company, Metallium, announced in August that it had leased a fully permitted site for a first-of-a-kind facility to recover minerals from industrial and electronic waste. 

Many critical minerals mined or refined in China ultimately end up in American landfills as discarded consumer electronics. Metallium aims to use flash heating technology developed at Rice University to haul in the abandoned material and extract an array of elements. The facility plans operations in 2026. 

Other companies are exploring extraction of critical minerals from old industrial waste including coal ash, mine tailing and the red mud residues buried over decades at alumina processing sites along the coast. One pilot project in San Antonio is extracting the mineral graphite from methane gas.

A small landscape of startups has also cropped up around the tremendous volumes of mineral-rich–and toxic–wastewater that comes up from oil wells.

"We can basically turn an oil well into a mini-mine," said Jesse Evans, co-founder of a San Antonio-based startup, Maverick Metals. 

This year, Maverick began producing a proprietary chemical that is pumped at high pressure into new oil wells during fracking to dissolve metal-bearing rocks that rise to the surface in the brown frothy brine known as "produced water." 

Maverick has processes, equipment and chemicals to extract metals from that wastewater. Most startups in this space focus on lithium, Evans said. But oilfield wastewater also contains trace amounts of other metals like platinum, palladium and gold that are profitable business, he said.

"What makes the lithium space really difficult is competing with China," he said. 

Some Chinese companies are vertically integrated from mine to factory, including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, the world's largest battery manufacturer. Chinese companies also face looser environmental restrictions, lower labor costs and little media scrutiny. Critically, China's state-run economy can swiftly orchestrate production surges to lower prices and crush competition—and its state-backed companies can operate at a loss for months if not years. 

"We play by the rules of capitalism but a different set of rules applies to them," said Marek Locmelis, an associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin who organizes an annual conference on critical minerals.

Lithium Hopes

Beyond the need for vast water supplies, the lithium pursuit also faces environmental and technical challenges. In Texas, the methods that companies plan to mine lithium haven't yet been used commercially at scale anywhere in the world. 

While traditional hardrock mines require stone crushing and grinding, the Smackover Formation contains a metal-rich brine that allows for quicker extraction. 

"If you extract directly from a brine you basically skip the mineral processing step that is energy intensive," Locmelis said.

Existing lithium brine operations—including Silver Peak in Nevada, the country's only operating lithium mine—let fluids evaporate in ponds over 18 months to concentrate the minerals. But projects in Texas plan to use new methods that extract metals in several days. 

These methods require much less freshwater than hardrock or evaporation mines but will still draw significant volumes from shallow aquifers. While water in East Texas may seem abundant, the area affected by lithium production lacks groundwater conservation districts to manage or track withdrawals, said Vanessa Puig-Williams, Texas water program director at the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund. 

"There is no entity that is managing the production of the fresh groundwater," she said. "That's worrisome because there is no oversight."

One Austin-based lithium startup, EnergyX, plans to use a process of "proprietary lithium-selective adsorbents, membranes, and extractants" which "enables faster, cleaner, and cost-efficient lithium extraction," said founder Teague Egan.

The process uses about 6,600 gallons of freshwater per ton of lithium produced, Egan said, just a fraction of traditional evaporation methods.

In September, EnergyX announced a site in Texarkana for its demonstration plant, which it plans to operate early next year. The company, backed by automaker General Motors, owns 330 adjacent acres where it plans a commercial-scale refinery. Four units would come online by 2030 to achieve 50,000 tons per year of production. 

"Texas—and specifically the Smackover Region—is quickly emerging as one of the central hubs for the U.S. lithium sector," Egan said. "In 10 years, we believe the Smackover Region will be the largest source of domestically produced lithium." 

His vision hinges on high hopes for strong lithium prices although there is some uncertainty about that. 

A trade war with China could crush the American sector. Technical advancements are making smaller batteries with less lithium and could dampen demand. Rapid evolution of recycling technologies could also reduce the need for lithium production. Scientists are developing new designs for energy storage that could eventually see lithium batteries join CD players and USB sticks in the land of obsolescence. 

Egan is not dissuaded. He is betting on Northeast Texas "evolving into a full-fledged lithium hub, with upstream brine production integrated directly into downstream refining."

"The region has the potential to become a global benchmark," he said. "Just as the oil and gas industry shaped the region's past, lithium can help define its future." 

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 20:05

Forget Harvard & Stanford, The University Of Chicago Has The Highest Tuition Costs Among Elite US Colleges

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Forget Harvard & Stanford, The University Of Chicago Has The Highest Tuition Costs Among Elite US Colleges

The cost of attending America’s most prestigious universities continues to soar.

For the 2024–25 academic year, the total annual cost of the top 10 national universities now ranges from $77,500 to $98,300, according to data compiled from U.S. News & World Report and College Board.

In the graphic below, Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti compares tuition costs for the top 10 U.S. universities with national averages for both private and public four-year colleges.

Elite Education Comes at a Premium

The University of Chicago tops the list, with tuition reaching $71,300. Other elite schools like Duke, Yale, and Stanford also hover near the $70,000 mark. Even Harvard, despite having one of the largest endowments in the world, lists tuition at $59,300.

The Gap Between Elite and Average Colleges

Tuition at the top 10 U.S. universities ranges from $59,000 to $71,000 per year, averaging about 50% higher than the $43,400 charged by the typical private nonprofit four-year college. By comparison, public out-of-state universities average around $29,200, while in-state students pay just $11,600.

In fact, the average college tuition costs have climbed a remarkable 748% since 1963, after adjusting for inflation. This steady rise reflects expanding facilities, faculty salaries, and student services, but it also deepens accessibility challenges.

Fleeing Tuition Hikes

Facing soaring tuition costs, more American students are looking overseas for affordable alternatives.

According to the Institute of International Education’s Open Doors report, the number of Americans earning degrees abroad rose from about 50,000 in 2019 to over 90,000 in 2024.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The Extra Earnings of a Bachelor’s Degree by State on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 19:40

The Crisis And Revolution Hidden In Plain Sight

Zero Hedge -

The Crisis And Revolution Hidden In Plain Sight

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

While we focus on AI and finance, society is crumbling beneath our feet.

According to both the mainstream media and social media, the forces that will shape the future are:

1) AI (i.e. technology's impact on jobs and growth),

2) geopolitical competition for AI dominance, energy, resources, trade, military and financial power,

3) finance, which includes cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), federal deficits, hyperinflation / currency devaluation and precious metals --all of which boil down to "what can I do to ensure that my wealth will remain intact whatever happens."

The key issues are technology, finance and market forces--the core drivers of the global economy. Society isn't on the menu other than as a quickly dismissed source of dutiful hand-wringing.

While all these will be influential, no one seems to see the domestic crisis hidden in plain sight or the revolution it makes inevitable. In my analysis, these will be the dominant forces shaping the coming decade.

As I have documented in recent posts-- If We Measured the Economy by Quality-of-Life Instead of GDP, We'd Be In a DepressionFor Many, This Recession Will Feel Like a Depression and Crunch Time for Cities, Counties and States--the system has reached its limits and is coming apart.

What is the crisis? There are three self-reinforcing dynamics in play.

The first is the imbalance of the economy and society: The economy now dominates society, and historically this leads to disorder. Everyone looking at technology and finance as the solutions has it backwards: technology and finance are the problems, not the solutions, as they are the primary drivers of the imbalance between society and the economy.

As I explain in my new book's Introduction (free), society and the market forces that drive the economy have different timelines, tasks and priorities.

Market forces are focused on expanding new markets, heedless of consequences beyond profit and market share; the future consequences fall on society, which must take the long view and absorb the impacts on the workforce, social stability and the nation's commons, i.e. the environment.

The second is that inequality--of wealth, income, opportunity and power--has reached extremes that can be visualized as a pendulum: pushed to an extreme, the pendulum will swing to the opposite extreme.

It's not just inequality that's reached an extreme--so has exploitation, artifice and moral decay.

The average income of the bottom 60% households is $38,000 annually, while to qualify as a top 10% household requires about $250,000 annually.

As I have documented here, insecurity can't be measured solely by income--the other dynamic is precarity: the income of many households is variable, and unexpected expenses such as auto repairs or health emergencies (both of which have reached insane heights) can throw the household into a financial hole.

Those ignoring society to focus on the economy assume the bottom 60% of Americans--200 million people, 80 million households who own so little of the nation's financial wealth that their share is a rounding error--will just uncomplainingly accept their accelerating impoverishment as prices for essential soar and wages don't keep pace.

The problem with this assumption is this cohort is making too little money (even with increases in minimum wages) to afford the essentials of shelter, food, healthcare, childcare and transport.

Inflation is not dead; it's already changed the landscape permanently. Lower-cost alternatives have dried up: even old cars and apartments in seedy neighborhoods cost a fortune now.

Those between the bottom 60% and the top 10%--the 30% who self-identify as "middle class"-- may feel immune to precarity, but much of their financial stability rests on sands that will collapse in a recession / asset-bubble pop.

Their financial stability is fragile because it now rests on three fragile economic structures:

1) credit-asset bubbles that have increased "wealth" without increasing use-value;

2) the transfer of risk from corporations and the government to households,

3) the "trickledown economy" where the wealthiest 10% now collect virtually all the non-wage income from income-producing assets and account for 50% of all spending--wealth and income that's supposed to "trickle down" to the bottom 90%.

Once the asset bubbles pop and even the top 10% start experiencing job losses and declining income, the layoffs in the bottom 90% will cascade as spending dries up and stock portfolios and home values return to Earth.

Only those 62 and older were in the workforce in a "real recession," i.e. one that can't be reversed by the Federal Reserve lowering short-term interest rates and the federal government borrowing and spending more to "spend our way out of recession." The last real recession was 43 years ago, 1981-82.

There is also a demographic dynamic in play globally: Gen Z is no longer accepting that massive inequality between generations is "the way it has to be."

The second dynamic is the buffers that enabled people to hang on through recessions have all thinned: where debt was a modest percentage of GDP in the 1970s and 1980s recessions, now it's at historic highs. Households have already tapped credit cards and so borrowing more money to get by is not an option.

So when push comes to shove--when hours are cut or a job is lost--the only choice is what not to pay: student loan, car payment, rent, as food and utilities take precedence.

The buffers are already thinned and we haven't even slipped into recession yet.

The third dynamic is the least recognized: the moral decay that has pushed exploitation, profiteering and artifice to extremes, undermining the foundations of the economy and society.

Though it's unseen, the economy and society both rest on moral foundations. As moral decay consumes those foundations, the consequences are social and economic decay.

The authentic market--defined by transparency and competition--has been replaced by monopolies and cartels that generate outsized profits not by increasing value but by reducing the value of products and services.

Profits flow not from improving durability and quality but by reducing them. There are words that describe our economy: exploitation, profiteering, predation, extraction.

Since political influence is now an open auction in which corporations place the winning bids, there is zero political interest or will to address the inequality divide. The current administration's core economic policies are unchanged from 2008-09: cut taxes paid by the 10% (because they pay most of the income taxes), push interest rates down to goose borrowing, and inflate asset bubbles to create "the wealth effect." That these only increase wealth and income inequality--who cares? Not the political class of either party.

We've succumbed to normalization: all this is "the way it is."

But this is artifice: normalizing extremes doesn't make them stable. The system has reached its limits and the social order is crumbling.

*  *  *

My new book Investing In Revolution describes the inevitable result: a social revolution, not a political one that replaces one ruling elite with another. This will be a revolution that changes values and restores social norms. We will all have the opportunity to invest in revolution.

To me, this is all in plain sight, but since nobody else sees it, it's hidden in plain sight. The Introduction (free) summarizes the many dynamics in play.

I tend to think this might be my most important book, as I sincerely doubt the next decade will be a simple extension of the last decade. Just as the Ming Empire crumbled when it reached its limits, our system has reached its limits; while we focus on AI and finance, society is crumbling beneath our feet.

I'm offering the book at a 20% discount ($16 for the paperback, $20 for the hardcover and $7.95 for the Kindle edition) through Wednesday October 22, 6 pm EST.

Check out my updated Books and Films.

Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com

Subscribe to my Substack for free

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 19:15

Tuesday: Mortgage Rates Near 3-Year Lows

Calculated Risk -

Mortgage Rates From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Another Boring Day With Mortgage Rates Near 3-Year Lows
[W]e're hanging out near 3 year lows with minimal volatility. In order to see sharper, more sustained momentum, we'd likely need the government shutdown to end. That would allow the most consequential economic reports (like the jobs report) to be released. It would also allow data collection to resume for future jobs reports.

Between now and then, there is other data to guide the rate market, but it's just not as heavy hitting. This week is particularly light in that regard, but there's one exception. The BLS received an exception to compile September's CPI inflation data, to be released this Friday. It's not quite on par with the jobs report, but it can certainly get rates moving (for better or worse, depending on the details). [30 year fixed 6.22%]
emphasis added
Tuesday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

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