Individual Economists

Tuesday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales

Calculated Risk -

Weekend:
Schedule for Week of August 31, 2025

Tuesday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.6, up from 48.0 in July.

• At 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for July. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in construction spending.

• All Day, Light vehicle sales for August.
The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 16.1 million SAAR in July, down from 16.4 million in June (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $64.61 per barrel and Brent at $68.15 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $77, and Brent was at $82 - so WTI oil prices are down about 16% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.15 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.28 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.13 year-over-year.

The Progressive Pantheon Of Pathetic Heroes

Zero Hedge -

The Progressive Pantheon Of Pathetic Heroes

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

American left-wing heroes are proving to be a creepy bunch.

So what do some of the most renowned “resistance” left-wing heroes have in common other than shared hatred of conservative America?

They are either criminals, pathological liars, or self-described performance-art victims.

Take Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the current face of progressive resistance to the enforcement of federal immigration law.

No one questions that Garcia had previously received deportation orders before he was re-arrested by ICE.

No one argues that his current wife, Vasquez Sura, had in the past successfully petitioned for at least two protective restraining orders against Abrego Garcia—to stop his violent beatings and his manic destruction of household items.

In the old Democratic Party, the worst allegation possible was to be cast as a beater of women.

No one contests that in 2022, Garcia was pulled over in Tennessee for speeding and recklessly veering out of his lane.

He was then found to have an invalid driver’s license. He was accompanied by eight illegal aliens without IDs. And his vehicle was registered to an imprisoned and likely human trafficker. Garcia had been variously recognized in deportation hearings as a member of the violent and lethal MS-13 gang.

Yet when ICE began to deport him, the left went ballistic and constructed him as some sort of civil rights saint.

Senators tossed drinks with the illegal alien.

A few politicos trekked on a holy hejira to El Salvador to demand from the autonomous El Salvadorian government the release of a Salvadorian citizen held in jail on Salvadorian soil—as if they were 19th-century Yanqui imperialists dictating to an elected Central American government that the United States had more rights of jurisdiction over an illegal alien than did the government of El Salvador over one of their own citizens on their own soil.

Feminists said little about his brutal propensity to strike women. Anti-gang activists went mostly mum about his MS-13 affiliations. Those decrying human trafficking were quiet about his transportation of illegal aliens.

Instead, all that was needed of this useful illegal alien pawn was the Democrat meme that Abrego Garcia was a victimized person of color and a target of Trump’s supposedly racist, restrictionist, and xenophobic border policies. His crimes in comparison were immaterial if not advantageous to the cause. No one bothered to remember the legions of innocent women killed and raped by violent illegal aliens.

Mahmoud Khalil was a different, far smoother sort of leftist icon. The pro-Hamas Algerian “student” came to the US supposedly for the chance at an Ivy League education. He soon stayed on a green card, becoming the poster boy of anti-Israel protests at Columbia.

To counter sometimes violent campus and urban pro-Hamas demonstrations and endemic anti-Semitism in elite higher education, the Trump administration decided that it no longer wished to import student force multipliers of widespread anti-American and anti-Semitic boilerplate.

In other words, the Trump administration ordered Khalil deported on the grounds that he was admitted as a guest student, not a perennial campus gadfly organizer spouting support for the terrorists of Hamas.

Note the U.S. is the host, Khalil the guest. And hosts need no reasons to disinvite unruly or obnoxious guests, who abuse the privileges (that most American citizens lack) of attending an Ivy League school.

Yet in the Democratic binary of oppressed/oppressors, Khalil fit the bill.

He was a “lite” Hamas supporter and a clever anti-Israel activist who oversaw demonstrations that were overtly anti-Semitic in his host country. The only lingering question is why do pro-Hamas, anti-American Palestinians so often demand to visit and study in the hated U.S. when there are universities receptive and conducive to Islamists and Hamas enablers closer to home?

The left seemed mostly uninterested in any of the 1,200 slaughtered on October 7 in a time of peace, only in those who championed the cause of that murderous rampage.

The left also went gaga over the wealthy, aristocratic, and supposedly charming young Luigi Mangione, the assassin of UnitedHealth CEO Brian Thompson. Not since the terrorist and mass murderer Dzhokhar Tsarnaev adorned the cover of Rolling Stone has the left so romanticized a stone-cold psychopath.

Mangione quickly became a supposed counter-culture freedom fighter, with his good looks battling the corporate insects who supposedly feed on hoi polloi.

In reality, Thompson was an up-from-the-bootstraps Midwesterner who, by merit, not birth, climbed to the top of the corporate world, murdered by Mangione, a spoiled, rich wannabe pseudo-intellectual who cowardly hid in wait to blow apart Thompson for the supposed crime of running the company that made a profit selling needed health insurance to willing buyers.

But for the left, the death throes of Thompson were out of mind and out of sight, while Mangione was interviewed and lauded on social media as a righteous revenger and the arm of the exploited.

Do we even now remember the faker Jussie Smollett?

He was the multiracial actor who was worried that he was a fading star in a soon-to-be-cancelled TV show.

So he staged a violent crime in which he hired two burly assailants with red MAGA-like hats to 1) ambush him in the early morning hours, 2) be warded off by the feisty, heroic, cell-phone- and sandwich-holding diminutive Smollett, and 3) manage nonetheless to “whiten” Smollett with bleach (defying the laws of chemistry by not freezing when thrown on Smollett in the arctic winter Chicago night temperature) as they tossed a “noose” over his neck, shouting MAGA slurs about his black-cast Empire television series.

Smollett’s rent-a-thugs were taped buying the tools of the ambush. They had cashed Smollett’s checks as proof of his hire and confessed both to the crime and its practice run.

Yet, Smollett became the immediate heroic victim and thus proof, according to the likes of Nancy Pelosi and Kamala Harris, of endemic racism.

What a horrific America when brilliant and brave black stars had to fight off red-hatted, noose-carrying, bleach-bringing, Empire-hating, 2-AM-lurking, white-male, MAGA racist bullies, prowling randomly in sub-zero temperatures for targets in a liberal, mostly black neighborhood, and on the lookout for innocent, brilliant, brave, young, black, movie stars so often wandering in the deep night.

The left not only fell for that skit but for days ran with Jussie as proof of what black men have to put up with from the white establishment in Chicago.

There are lots of criminals who could be added to the leftist pantheon.

The now iconic George Floyd, despite the tragedy of his detention and death, was resisting arrest while stopped under the influence of drugs, while likely trying to pass counterfeit money, while an eight-times convicted felon, and while a former four-year convict who previously had staged a home invasion and robbery and aimed a gun at the abdomen of a female occupant.

No wonder he soon appeared memorialized on murals with wings and a halo.

Michael Brown, of the lie “hands up, don’t shoot” that went viral, was supposedly gunned down in the back as he vainly tried to flee a white racist cop looking for prey in Ferguson, Missouri.

No matter that in truth, Brown was a thief who had just strong-armed a store clerk and was confronted by a policeman while brazenly walking down the center of the street.

Brown then attacked the cop and sought in vain to grab his weapon. After their struggle, he ran away, then turned and charged the officer until he was shot.

For the left, he was another instant, noble victim of racist white police.

So naturally, weeks of protests followed, sometimes violent, as liberal elected officials visited Ferguson to show solidarity against “the militarization of the police” and to honor Michael Brown. White, entitled CNN anchors paraded in their newsrooms while holding their hands up, chanting the lie “hands up, don’t shoot.”

Octogenarian Native American activist Leonard Peltier was recently granted limited parole. He was successfully convicted a half-century earlier of murdering two FBI agents—allegedly executing two defenseless young officers with coup de gras shots to their heads as they lay wounded.

For decades, he posed as a “political prisoner” of a racist, white-rigged system. And despite an earlier failed prison break and serially refused pardons, nonetheless, in the fleeting hours of the autopen Biden administration, Peltier was finally released home under supervision—a defiant leftist resistance hero and unrepentant murderer to the end.

Both these violent and suave heroes were canonized by the left because of their perceived opposition to corporate America, or law enforcement, or a conservative administration, or white people, and, in particular, more recently, to the hated Trump.

Given its cosmic morality, the left never really cared that Jussie Smollett not just lied but that his lies could not possibly in a Newtonian world be true, or that assassin Mangione showed all the mercilessness of a professional Mafia hit man, or that it proved impossible for the guest “student” Khalil ever to voice disapproval of the mass murdering act of Hamas on October 7, or that America in 2025 did not need to import more wife beaters, human traffickers, and gang members.

Why does the left make martyrs out of monsters?

One, in postmodern America, there are too many victims for too few victimizers. So to distinguish the one from the many requires all the more psychodramas and grammar-school dramatics. Violence and claims of racism add to the hero’s mystique.

Two, the heroes are mere pawns in a larger game of “social justice” in which both useful idiots and ruthless criminals alike can advance the cause.

Morality, then, is never defined by the means but only by the eventual ends. Facts don’t matter; only the noble lies for the cause.

Three, the worshipers are, for the most part, affluent and safe; the worshiped are not so tame.

So it became easy to immortalize a Garcia—as long as he does not live next door.

It is virtuous to praise publicly a Mangione—unless he is armed and hiding in wait for your parents.

Smollett is a noble victim, at least when you’re not a cop at 3 AM trying to sort out all the preposterous lies of Jussie’s noose, bleach, and “bruises.”

“Hands up, don’t shoot” is a catchy civil-rights call to arms—at least when Michael Brown is not strong-arming you in a store or he is not charging you head down.

You can play-act Gandhi—when you’re not Garcia’s battered girlfriend, or you do not answer the door at night when George Floyd barges in with a pointed gun, or you’re not wounded and begging for your life when Leonard Peltier pulls the trigger.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 17:20

Update: Lumber Prices Up 11% YoY

Calculated Risk -

This is something to watch again. Here is another update on lumber prices.
SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.
This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).
On August 29, 2025, LBR was at $548.50 per 1,000 board feet, up 11% from a year ago.
Lumber PricesClick on graph for larger image.

There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.
The pickup in early 2018 was due to the Trump lumber tariffs in 2017.  There were huge increases during the pandemic due to a combination of supply constraints and a pickup in housing starts.  

Illinois Gov Launches Historic LGBTQ Hotline For 'Persecuted' Rainbow People

Zero Hedge -

Illinois Gov Launches Historic LGBTQ Hotline For 'Persecuted' Rainbow People

Authored by Benjamin Bartee via PJMedia.com,

Because Illinois apparently doesn’t have any more pressing matters of governance to attend to, such as rampant gun crime in the city of Chicago, Governor JB Pritzker recently announced a historic, “first of its kind” “legal hotline that expands access to legal information and support for LGBTQIA+ individuals across Illinois.”

 

Via Illinois Department of Human Services (emphasis added):

 

Governor JB Pritzker announced yesterday the launch of IL Pride Connect, a new statewide resource hub and first of its kind legal hotline that expands access to legal information and support for LGBTQIA+ individuals across Illinois. The Illinois Department of Human Services (IDHS), in collaboration with community partners, will lead the initiative. Governor Pritzker made the announcement at an event Thursday evening hosted by the Legal Council for Health Justice.

“In Illinois, we are fighting ignorance with information and cruelty with compassion, said Governor JB Pritzker. “Thanks to our state, philanthropic, and community partners, IL Pride Connect will inform individuals of their rights and connect them to health and social services support – making us the only state in the nation to provide free legal advice and advocacy tools to protect the LGBTQ community.”

The press release — I counted — is 1,056 words long. I read through all of it, looking for mention of any specific right that the transgenders are allegedly being denied.

There is nothing; the whole document is a word salad of subcultural jargon and lofty-sounding rhetoric about “the unique challenges LGBTQIA+ people face in today's environment.”

Continuing:

LGBTQIA+ communities are facing an unprecedented wave of legal and policy attacks from the current federal administration. These changes are not only harmful – they are cruel and dehumanizing, stripping individuals of their rights, dignity, and access to essential services like healthcare and education. IL Pride Connect was created to meet this moment….

IL Pride Connect includes a digital resource hub with legal FAQs, know-your-rights information, referrals to affirming legal and community services, and advocacy tools. It also includes a first of its kind legal hotline that operates Monday through Thursday, 9 a.m. to 4 p.m., and provides real-time information and referrals, including on name and gender marker changes, housing and education rights, and access to healthcare and public benefits*

Access to up-to-date, vetted information and resources that address the unique challenges LGBTQIA+ people face in today's environment is critical and lifesaving work,” said Gillian Knight, Program Manager of Learning & Evaluation, Healthy Communities Foundation.

*All of these rights — equity in housing, public benefits, etc. irrespective of so-called gender identity — are already enshrined in Illinois state law.

Via Illinois Department of Human Rights (emphasis added):

All individuals in Illinois have a right to be free from discrimination on the basis of their gender identity. Contrary to recent federal attempts to roll back civil and human rights, the Illinois Human Rights Act (Act) continues to provide broad civil rights protections for transgender, nonbinary, and gender nonconforming people in the areas of employment, real estate transactions (housing), financial credit, and places of public accommodation (including healthcare and schools).

The Illinois Department of Human Rights (IDHR) enforces the Act to protect persons of all gender identities from discrimination, harassment, and retaliation.  Violations of the Act are investigated by IDHR and may be adjudicated by the Illinois Human Rights Commission (IHRC) or by the courts. A person may file a charge (complaint) with IDHR if they believe they have been discriminated against or harassed based on their gender identity.  Under the Act, a person is also protected from retaliation for activities such as reporting discrimination or filing a charge.

But let’s not let facts get in the way of virtue-signaling in the culture war as a way to score cheap political points with the blue-hairs.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 11:45

Key Events This Week: Jobs, Jolts, ISM, And Fed Speakers Galore

Zero Hedge -

Key Events This Week: Jobs, Jolts, ISM, And Fed Speakers Galore

After a strong August, DB's Peter Sidorov writes that risk assets are starting September on a more tentative footing as Friday’s tech-led sell off on Wall Street has continued across most of Asia this morning although it has since stabilized. With rising Fed rate cut pricing supporting markets of late, investors will be keenly watching whether this is validated by the upcoming US payrolls release on Friday and subsquent negative revisions on Sept 9. The bar to derail a Fed rate cut on September 17 is extremely high (the real question is whether the cut is 25bps or 50), but with fed funds futures now pricing over 140bps of easing by the end of 2026, markets are expecting an amount of easing that since the 1980s has only occurred around recessions.

Before we preview payrolls and the Fed in more detail, the major story of the weekend came as late on Friday a US federal appeals court ruled that tariffs introduced under International Economist Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) were illegal, upholding an earlier ruling by the Court of International Trade. However, in its 7-4 ruling the court left the tariffs in place until October 14 giving the administration time to appeal the case to the Supreme Court. And while a majority of judges in the appeals court ruling were nominated by Democrat Presidents, there is a 6-3 Republican-appointed majority on the Supreme Court, and Trump's tariffs are most likely to remain. Were IEEPA tariffs to be stuck down, this would invalidate most levies introduced this year, including the “reciprocal” country rates and the “fentanyl” tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, though the administration could look to implement more levies via other statutes.

Turning to the US payrolls print on Friday, DB's economists expect a modest pick up in both headline (DBe +100k vs. 73k previously) and private (+100k vs. 83k) payrolls. They see the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%, with a risk that it rounds down to 4.1%. With Powell leaning towards a near-term rate cut at Jackson Hole and markets now pricing an 87% chance of a September cut, it would likely take a huge payrolls outperformance to dissuade a September cut. However, a stable unemployment rate could alleviate fears of a material downshift in the labor market, keeping the Fed cautious on further rate cuts.

The payrolls release will be preceded by the JOLTS survey on Wednesday and the ADP report on Thursday, two labor market indicators that have been namechecked by Governor Waller, who last week suggested that a weak payrolls print could bring a 50bp September cut in plnoteay. Other Fed officials have been less dovish but have also noted labor market risks. We will see a few Fed speakers before the blackout window starts next weekend, including St. Louis Fed President Musalem (Wednesday), NY Fed President Williams (Thursday) and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (Thursday).

Beyond the Fedspeak, markets will be glued to the latest newsflow around President Trump’s attempted removal of Fed Governor Cook. Friday’s court hearing on the injunction to block Trump from firing her yielded no decision with further filings expected this Tuesday. In a note last week DB discussed the possible implications if Governor Cook were to be removed and Trump were to achieve a majority on the Federal Reserve Board. This Thursday, the Senate Banking Committee will also hold a hearing on Stephen Miran’s confirmation for the vacant Fed Board seat as the White House looks to have him confirmed in time for the September FOMC.

While US markets will be closed today for Labor Day, other US data highlights this week will include ISM manufacturing (Tuesday) and services (Thu) prints, with the employment components of the two series, which have slipped over the past couple of months, likely to draw attention. In Europe, the main data release will be the euro area flash August CPI print tomorrow. Following the major country prints on Friday, our European economists see headline inflation rising marginally to +2.06% YoY (vs 2.0% prev.) with core falling to +2.22% (vs 2.3% prev.).

The political situation in France will remain in focus ahead of the confidence vote scheduled on September 8. Prime Minister Bayrou’s minority government looks likely to lose this with major opposition parties repeating their intent to vote against the government over the weekend. In a note published on Friday (link), DB's European economists outline the next key steps and likely paths forward and discuss the ECB’s likely reaction function to the situation in France.

Staying with geopolitics, the focus yesterday and today is on China hosting the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. Yesterday China’s Xi Jinping met with India’s Narendra Modi, with the two sides pledging to “remain partners rather than rivals”. The summit has received extra attention amid Trump’s tariff pressure on Asian countries, and Modi will also meet with Russia’s Vladimir Putin today, shortly after the US raised tariffs on India to 50% last week in response to its purchases of Russian oil.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday September 1

  • Data: UK July net consumer credit, M4, Japan Q2 MoF survey, Italy August budget balance, manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, July unemployment rate, Eurozone July unemployment rate
  • Other: US Labor Day holiday

Tuesday September 2

  • Data: US August ISM index, July construction spending, Japan August monetary base, France July budget balance, Italy July PPI, Eurozone August CPI, Canada August manufacturing PMI
  • Central banks: BoJ's Himino speaks
  • Earnings: Partners Group, Nio, Zscaler

Wednesday September 3

  • Data: US July JOLTS report, factory orders, August total vehicle sales, UK August official reserves changes, Italy August services PMI, Eurozone July PPI, Canada Q2 labor productivity, Australia Q2 GDP
  • Central banks: Fed's Beige Book, Fed's Musalem speaks, ECB's Lagarde speaks, BoE's Bailey, Lombardelli, Taylor, Greene and Breeden speak
  • Earnings: Salesforce, HPE, Figma, Gitlab, Dollar Tree, C3.ai

Thursday September 4

  • Data: US August ADP report, ISM services, July trade balance, initial jobless claims, UK August new car registrations, construction PMI, Germany August construction PMI, Eurozone July retail sales, Canada July international merchandise trade, Switzerland and Sweden August CPIs
  • Central banks: Fed's Williams speaks, ECB's Cipollone speaks, BoE's DMP survey
  • Earnings: Broadcom, Lululemon

Friday September 5

  • Data: US August jobs report, UK July retail sales, Japan July labor cash earnings, household spending, leading index, coincident index, Germany July factory orders, France July trade balance, current account balance, Italy July retail sales, Canada August jobs report
  • Central banks: Fed's Goolsbee speaks

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the ISM manufacturing index on Tuesday, the JOLTS job openings report on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including an event with New York Fed President Williams on Thursday. 

Monday, September 1 

  • Labor Day holiday. There are no major economic data releases scheduled. NYSE will be closed. SIFMA recommends that bond markets also close.

Tuesday, September 2 

  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, August final (consensus 53.3, last 53.3)
  • 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, August (GS 50.0, consensus 49.0, last 48.0): We estimate the ISM manufacturing index rebounded 2.0pt to 50.0 in August, reflecting improvement in our manufacturing survey tracker (+1.2pt to 51.9) and a tailwind from residual seasonality.
  • 10:00 AM Construction spending, July (GS flat, consensus -0.1%, last -0.4%)

Wednesday, September 3 

  • 09:00 AM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak at the Peterson Institute on the subject of the economy and monetary policy. Q&A is expected. On August 14, Musalem said that he expects “most of the impact of tariffs on inflation to fade in 6 to 9 months, but it could be more persistent.” He also noted that the “economy is around full employment,” and that “if the Fed were to weigh the labor market side more and reduce rates aggressively, that could lead to higher inflation expectations and be counterproductive.”
  • 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, July (GS 7,450k, consensus 7,373k, last 7,437k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings were roughly unchanged at 7.45mn in July based on the signal from online job postings.
  • 10:00 AM Factory orders, July (GS -1.2%, consensus -1.4%, last -4.8%); Durable goods orders, July final (GS -2.8%, consensus -2.8%, last -2.8%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, July final (consensus +1.1%, last +1.1%); Core capital goods orders, July final (last +1.1%); Core capital goods shipments, July final (last +0.7%)
  • 02:00 PM Fed Releases Beige Book, September meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the July FOMC meeting period noted that five districts had reported modest increases in activity, five districts reported flat activity, and the remaining two districts reported modest declines in activity, representing an improvement over the previous report, and that uncertainty remained elevated, contributing to ongoing caution by businesses. In this month’s Beige Book, we look for anecdotes related to the evolution of labor demand and firms’ expectations of activity growth for the remainder of the year.
  • 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, August (GS 16.0mn, consensus 16.1mn, last 16.4mn)

Thursday, September 4 

  • 08:15 AM ADP employment change, August (GS +100k, consensus +80k, last +104k)
  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q2 final (GS +3.1%, consensus +2.7%, last +2.4%): Unit labor costs, Q2 final (GS +0.9%, consensus +1.4%, last +1.6%)
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended August 30 (GS 230k, consensus 230k, last 229k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended August 23 (consensus 1,960k, last 1,954k)
  • 08:30 AM Trade balance, July (GS -$76.0bn, consensus -$78.0bn, last -$60.2bn): We forecast that trade balance widened by $15.8bn to $76.0bn in July, reflecting an increase in goods imports that more than offsets an increase in exports of travel services.
  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, August final (consensus 55.3, last 55.4)
  • 10:00 AM ISM services index, August (GS 51.5, consensus 50.9, last 50.1): We estimate that the ISM services index rebounded 1.4pt to 51.5 in August, reflecting sequential improvement in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (+0.9pt to 54.2) and a tailwind from residual seasonality.
  • 11:30 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed president John Williams will speak at the Economic Club of New York on the economic outlook, monetary policy, and how to navigate a changing environment and uncertainty. On August 27, Williams said that “if [the real] neutral [rate] is 1% or a bit below, [the current monetary policy stance] is restrictive,” and that “at some point, it will be appropriate to move rates down.” He also noted that GDP growth has slowed and he expects the slowdown to continue.
  • 05:00 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated Q&A at the mHub’s Industry Disruptor Series. On August 15, Goolsbee said, “We put a note of unease in the last CPI and PPI, with inflation picking up in categories that are not obviously transitory.” He also noted, “If we can assure ourselves or get a hint that for this meeting, or the meetings this fall, that we aren't on an inflationary spiral that looks to be persistent, I still think it makes sense given the strength of the economy to move rates more back to where we think they're going to settle."

Friday, September 5 

  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, August (GS +60k, consensus +75k, last +73k); Private payroll employment, August (GS +80k, consensus +75k, last +83k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), August (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, : last +0.3%); Unemployment rate, August (GS 4.3%, consensus 4.3%, last 4.2%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 60k in August. On the positive side, big data indicators indicated a sequentially firmer—albeit still soft—pace of private sector job growth. On the negative side, we expect unchanged government payrolls, reflecting a 20k decline in federal government payrolls and unchanged state and local government payrolls. Additionally, August payrolls have exhibited a consistent negative bias in initial prints over the last decade. We estimate that the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% on a rounded basis (a low bar from an unrounded 4.248% in July), reflecting sequential easing in other measures of labor market slack, though see potential payback from a partial reversal of the spike in new entrant employment that boosted the unemployment rate in July. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.3% (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting slightly positive calendar effects.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 11:25

Man Found Dead At Burning Man Sparks Homicide Investigation

Zero Hedge -

Man Found Dead At Burning Man Sparks Homicide Investigation

Tens of thousands of people descended on a dry lakebed in Nevada over the past week, ending this weekend with the burning of a massive wooden sculpture shaped like a man. It was at that point, on Saturday night, that a man was found dead in a pool of blood, with authorities investigating it as a homicide. This is believed to be the first suspected homicide since Burning Man moved to the Black Rock Desert in 1990.

"The Pershing County Sheriff's Office is investigating the death of a single white adult male that occurred the night of Saturday, August 30 in Black Rock City," Burning Man officials wrote in a press release on its website. 

Sheriff Jerry Allen of the Pershing County Sheriff's Office said deputies at Burning Man arrived at the scene around 9:14 pm local time Saturday and "found a single white adult male lying on the ground, obviously deceased." 

AP News cited local officials who said the man was found "dead in a pool of blood and is being investigated as a homicide."

The Pershing County Sheriff's Office noted that the homicide investigation appears to be a singular case but warned everyone at the festival to be vigilant of their surroundings and acquaintances. 

There have been several fatalities over the years, including accidents, medical emergencies, and even suicides. However, the incident this past weekend, occurring just as the large wooden effigy of a man began to burn, appears to be the first homicide at the festival.

In other festival news, Orgy Dome at Burning Man was pounded by a windstorm...

. . . 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 10:55

The Greatest Challenge Facing Mankind

The Big Picture -

The Greatest Challenge Facing Mankind:
Remarks to the Commonwealth Club
by Michael Crichton
San Francisco, September 15, 2003

 

 

I have been asked to talk about what I consider the most important challenge facing mankind, and I have a fundamental answer. The greatest challenge facing mankind is the challenge of distinguishing reality from fantasy, truth from propaganda. Perceiving the truth has always been a challenge to mankind, but in the information age (or as I think of it, the disinformation age) it takes on a special urgency and importance.

We must daily decide whether the threats we face are real, whether the solutions we are offered will do any good, whether the problems we’re told exist are in fact real problems, or non-problems. Every one of us has a sense of the world, and we all know that this sense is in part given to us by what other people and society tell us; in part generated by our emotional state, which we project outward; and in part by our genuine perceptions of reality. In short, our struggle to determine what is true is the struggle to decide which of our perceptions are genuine, and which are false because they are handed down, or sold to us, or generated by our own hopes and fears.

As an example of this challenge, I want to talk today about environmentalism. And in order not to be misunderstood, I want it perfectly clear that I believe it is incumbent on us to conduct our lives in a way that takes into account all the consequences of our actions, including the consequences to other people, and the consequences to the environment. I believe it is important to act in ways that are sympathetic to the environment, and I believe this will always be a need, carrying into the future. I believe the world has genuine problems and I believe it can and should be improved. But I also think that deciding what constitutes responsible action is immensely difficult, and the consequences of our actions are often difficult to know in advance. I think our past record of environmental action is discouraging, to put it mildly, because even our best intended efforts often go awry. But I think we do not recognize our past failures, and face them squarely. And I think I know why.

I studied anthropology in college, and one of the things I learned was that certain human social structures always reappear. They can’t be eliminated from society. One of those structures is religion. Today it is said we live in a secular society in which many people—the best people, the most enlightened people—do not believe in any religion. But I think that you cannot eliminate religion from the psyche of mankind. If you suppress it in one form, it merely re-emerges in another form. You can not believe in God, but you still have to believe in something that gives meaning to your life, and shapes your sense of the world. Such a belief is religious.

Today, one of the most powerful religions in the Western World is environmentalism. Environmentalism seems to be the religion of choice for urban atheists. Why do I say it’s a religion? Well, just look at the beliefs. If you look carefully, you see that environmentalism is in fact a perfect 21st century remapping of traditional Judeo-Christian beliefs and myths.

There’s an initial Eden, a paradise, a state of grace and unity with nature, there’s a fall from grace into a state of pollution as a result of eating from the tree of knowledge, and as a result of our actions there is a judgment day coming for us all. We are all energy sinners, doomed to die, unless we seek salvation, which is now called sustainability. Sustainability is salvation in the church of the environment. Just as organic food is its communion, that pesticide-free wafer that the right people with the right beliefs, imbibe.

Eden, the fall of man, the loss of grace, the coming doomsday—these are deeply held mythic structures. They are profoundly conservative beliefs. They may even be hard-wired in the brain, for all I know. I certainly don’t want to talk anybody out of them, as I don’t want to talk anybody out of a belief that Jesus Christ is the son of God who rose from the dead. But the reason I don’t want to talk anybody out of these beliefs is that I know that I can’t talk anybody out of them. These are not facts that can be argued. These are issues of faith.

And so it is, sadly, with environmentalism. Increasingly it seems facts aren’t necessary, because the tenets of environmentalism are all about belief. It’s about whether you are going to be a sinner, or saved. Whether you are going to be one of the people on the side of salvation, or on the side of doom. Whether you are going to be one of us, or one of them.

Am I exaggerating to make a point? I am afraid not. Because we know a lot more about the world than we did forty or fifty years ago. And what we know now is not so supportive of certain core environmental myths, yet the myths do not die. Let’s examine some of those beliefs.

There is no Eden. There never was. What was that Eden of the wonderful mythic past? Is it the time when infant mortality was 80%, when four children in five died of disease before the age of five? When one woman in six died in childbirth? When the average lifespan was 40, as it was in America a century ago. When plagues swept across the planet, killing millions in a stroke. Was it when millions starved to death? Is that when it was Eden?

And what about indigenous peoples, living in a state of harmony with the Eden-like environment? Well, they never did. On this continent, the newly arrived people who crossed the land bridge almost immediately set about wiping out hundreds of species of large animals, and they did this several thousand years before the white man showed up, to accelerate the process. And what was the condition of life? Loving, peaceful, harmonious? Hardly: the early peoples of the New World lived in a state of constant warfare. Generations of hatred, tribal hatreds, constant battles. The warlike tribes of this continent are famous: the Comanche, Sioux, Apache, Mohawk, Aztecs, Toltec, Incas. Some of them practiced infanticide, and human sacrifice. And those tribes that were not fiercely warlike were exterminated, or learned to build their villages high in the cliffs to attain some measure of safety.

How about the human condition in the rest of the world? The Maori of New Zealand committed massacres regularly. The dyaks of Borneo were headhunters. The Polynesians, living in an environment as close to paradise as one can imagine, fought constantly, and created a society so hideously restrictive that you could lose your life if you stepped in the footprint of a chief. It was the Polynesians who gave us the very concept of taboo, as well as the word itself. The noble savage is a fantasy, and it was never true. That anyone still believes it, 200 years after Rousseau, shows the tenacity of religious myths, their ability to hang on in the face of centuries of factual contradiction.

There was even an academic movement, during the latter 20th century, that claimed that cannibalism was a white man’s invention to demonize the indigenous peoples. (Only academics could fight such a battle.) It was some thirty years before professors finally agreed that yes, cannibalism does inbdeed occur among human beings. Meanwhile, all during this time New Guinea highlanders in the 20th century continued to eat the brains of their enemies until they were finally made to understand that they risked kuru, a fatal neurological disease, when they did so.

More recently still the gentle Tasaday of the Philippines turned out to be a publicity stunt, a nonexistent tribe. And African pygmies have one of the highest murder rates on the planet.

In short, the romantic view of the natural world as a blissful Eden is only held by people who have no actual experience of nature. People who live in nature are not romantic about it at all. They may hold spiritual beliefs about the world around them, they may have a sense of the unity of nature or the aliveness of all things, but they still kill the animals and uproot the plants in order to eat, to live. If they don’t, they will die.

And if you, even now, put yourself in nature even for a matter of days, you will quickly be disabused of all your romantic fantasies. Take a trek through the jungles of Borneo, and in short order you will have festering sores on your skin, you’ll have bugs all over your body, biting in your hair, crawling up your nose and into your ears, you’ll have infections and sickness and if you’re not with somebody who knows what they’re doing, you’ll quickly starve to death. But chances are that even in the jungles of Borneo you won’t experience nature so directly, because you will have covered your entire body with DEET and you will be doing everything you can to keep those bugs off you.

The truth is, almost nobody wants to experience real nature. What people want is to spend a week or two in a cabin in the woods, with screens on the windows. They want a simplified life for a while, without all their stuff. Or a nice river rafting trip for a few days, with somebody else doing the cooking. Nobody wants to go back to nature in any real way, and nobody does. It’s all talk-and as the years go on, and the world population grows increasingly urban, it’s uninformed talk. Farmers know what they’re talking about. City people don’t. It’s all fantasy.

One way to measure the prevalence of fantasy is to note the number of people who die because they haven’t the least knowledge of how nature really is. They stand beside wild animals, like buffalo, for a picture and get trampled to death; they climb a mountain in dicey weather without proper gear, and freeze to death. They drown in the surf on holiday because they can’t conceive the real power of what we blithely call “the force of nature.” They have seen the ocean. But they haven’t been in it.

The television generation expects nature to act the way they want it to be. They think all life experiences can be tivo-ed. The notion that the natural world obeys its own rules and doesn’t give a damn about your expectations comes as a massive shock. Well-to-do, educated people in an urban environment experience the ability to fashion their daily lives as they wish. They buy clothes that suit their taste, and decorate their apartments as they wish. Within limits, they can contrive a daily urban world that pleases them.

But the natural world is not so malleable. On the contrary, it will demand that you adapt to it-and if you don’t, you die. It is a harsh, powerful, and unforgiving world, that most urban westerners have never experienced.

Many years ago I was trekking in the Karakorum mountains of northern Pakistan, when my group came to a river that we had to cross. It was a glacial river, freezing cold, and it was running very fast, but it wasn’t deep—maybe three feet at most. My guide set out ropes for people to hold as they crossed the river, and everybody proceeded, one at a time, with extreme care. I asked the guide what was the big deal about crossing a three-foot river. He said, well, supposing you fell and suffered a compound fracture. We were now four days trek from the last big town, where there was a radio. Even if the guide went back double time to get help, it’d still be at least three days before he could return with a helicopter. If a helicopter were available at all. And in three days, I’d probably be dead from my injuries. So that was why everybody was crossing carefully. Because out in nature a little slip could be deadly.

But let’s return to religion. If Eden is a fantasy that never existed, and mankind wasn’t ever noble and kind and loving, if we didn’t fall from grace, then what about the rest of the religious tenets? What about salvation, sustainability, and judgment day? What about the coming environmental doom from fossil fuels and global warming, if we all don’t get down on our knees and conserve every day?

Well, it’s interesting. You may have noticed that something has been left off the doomsday list, lately. Although the preachers of environmentalism have been yelling about population for fifty years, over the last decade world population seems to be taking an unexpected turn. Fertility rates are falling almost everywhere. As a result, over the course of my lifetime the thoughtful predictions for total world population have gone from a high of 20 billion, to 15 billion, to 11 billion (which was the UN estimate around 1990) to now 9 billion, and soon, perhaps less. There are some who think that world population will peak in 2050 and then start to decline. There are some who predict we will have fewer people in 2100 than we do today. Is this a reason to rejoice, to say halleluiah? Certainly not. Without a pause, we now hear about the coming crisis of world economy from a shrinking population. We hear about the impending crisis of an aging population. Nobody anywhere will say that the core fears expressed for most of my life have turned out not to be true. As we have moved into the future, these doomsday visions vanished, like a mirage in the desert. They were never there—though they still appear, in the future. As mirages do.

Okay, so, the preachers made a mistake. They got one prediction wrong; they’re human. So what. Unfortunately, it’s not just one prediction. It’s a whole slew of them. We are running out of oil. We are running out of all natural resources. Paul Ehrlich: 60 million Americans will die of starvation in the 1980s. Forty thousand species become extinct every year. Half of all species on the planet will be extinct by 2000. And on and on and on.

With so many past failures, you might think that environmental predictions would become more cautious. But not if it’s a religion. Remember, the nut on the sidewalk carrying the placard that predicts the end of the world doesn’t quit when the world doesn’t end on the day he expects. He just changes his placard, sets a new doomsday date, and goes back to walking the streets. One of the defining features of religion is that your beliefs are not troubled by facts, because they have nothing to do with facts.

So I can tell you some facts. I know you haven’t read any of what I am about to tell you in the newspaper, because newspapers literally don’t report them. I can tell you that DDT is not a carcinogen and did not cause birds to die and should never have been banned. I can tell you that the people who banned it knew that it wasn’t carcinogenic and banned it anyway. I can tell you that the DDT ban has caused the deaths of tens of millions of poor people, mostly children, whose deaths are directly attributable to a callous, technologically advanced western society that promoted the new cause of environmentalism by pushing a fantasy about a pesticide, and thus irrevocably harmed the third world. Banning DDT is one of the most disgraceful episodes in the twentieth century history of America. We knew better, and we did it anyway, and we let people around the world die and didn’t give a damn.

I can tell you that second hand smoke is not a health hazard to anyone and never was, and the EPA has always known it. I can tell you that the evidence for global warming is far weaker than its proponents would ever admit. I can tell you the percentage the US land area that is taken by urbanization, including cities and roads, is 5%. I can tell you that the Sahara desert is shrinking, and the total ice of Antarctica is increasing. I can tell you that a blue-ribbon panel in Science magazine concluded that there is no known technology that will enable us to halt the rise of carbon dioxide in the 21st century. Not wind, not solar, not even nuclear. The panel concluded a totally new technology-like nuclear fusion-was necessary, otherwise nothing could be done and in the meantime all efforts would be a waste of time. They said that when the UN IPCC reports stated alternative technologies existed that could control greenhouse gases, the UN was wrong.

I can, with a lot of time, give you the factual basis for these views, and I can cite the appropriate journal articles not in whacko magazines, but in the most prestigeous science journals, such as Science and Nature. But such references probably won’t impact more than a handful of you, because the beliefs of a religion are not dependant on facts, but rather are matters of faith. Unshakeable belief.

Most of us have had some experience interacting with religious fundamentalists, and we understand that one of the problems with fundamentalists is that they have no perspective on themselves. They never recognize that their way of thinking is just one of many other possible ways of thinking, which may be equally useful or good. On the contrary, they believe their way is the right way, everyone else is wrong; they are in the business of salvation, and they want to help you to see things the right way. They want to help you be saved. They are totally rigid and totally uninterested in opposing points of view. In our modern complex world, fundamentalism is dangerous because of its rigidity and its imperviousness to other ideas.

I want to argue that it is now time for us to make a major shift in our thinking about the environment, similar to the shift that occurred around the first Earth Day in 1970, when this awareness was first heightened. But this time around, we need to get environmentalism out of the sphere of religion. We need to stop the mythic fantasies, and we need to stop the doomsday predictions. We need to start doing hard science instead.

There are two reasons why I think we all need to get rid of the religion of environmentalism.

First, we need an environmental movement, and such a movement is not very effective if it is conducted as a religion. We know from history that religions tend to kill people, and environmentalism has already killed somewhere between 10-30 million people since the 1970s. It’s not a good record. Environmentalism needs to be absolutely based in objective and verifiable science, it needs to be rational, and it needs to be flexible. And it needs to be apolitical. To mix environmental concerns with the frantic fantasies that people have about one political party or another is to miss the cold truth—that there is very little difference between the parties, except a difference in pandering rhetoric. The effort to promote effective legislation for the environment is not helped by thinking that the Democrats will save us and the Republicans won’t. Political history is more complicated than that. Never forget which president started the EPA: Richard Nixon. And never forget which president sold federal oil leases, allowing oil drilling in Santa Barbara: Lyndon Johnson. So get politics out of your thinking about the environment.

The second reason to abandon environmental religion is more pressing. Religions think they know it all, but the unhappy truth of the environment is that we are dealing with incredibly complex, evolving systems, and we usually are not certain how best to proceed. Those who are certain are demonstrating their personality type, or their belief system, not the state of their knowledge. Our record in the past, for example managing national parks, is humiliating. Our fifty-year effort at forest-fire suppression is a well-intentioned disaster from which our forests will never recover. We need to be humble, deeply humble, in the face of what we are trying to accomplish. We need to be trying various methods of accomplishing things. We need to be open-minded about assessing results of our efforts, and we need to be flexible about balancing needs. Religions are good at none of these things.

How will we manage to get environmentalism out of the clutches of religion, and back to a scientific discipline? There’s a simple answer: we must institute far more stringent requirements for what constitutes knowledge in the environmental realm. I am thoroughly sick of politicized so-called facts that simply aren’t true. It isn’t that these “facts” are exaggerations of an underlying truth. Nor is it that certain organizations are spinning their case to present it in the strongest way. Not at all—what more and more groups are doing is putting out is lies, pure and simple. Falsehoods that they know to be false.

This trend began with the DDT campaign, and it persists to this day. At this moment, the EPA is hopelessly politicized. In the wake of Carol Browner, it is probably better to shut it down and start over. What we need is a new organization much closer to the FDA. We need an organization that will be ruthless about acquiring verifiable results, that will fund identical research projects to more than one group, and that will make everybody in this field get honest fast.

Because in the end, science offers us the only way out of politics. And if we allow science to become politicized, then we are lost. We will enter the Internet version of the dark ages, an era of shifting fears and wild prejudices, transmitted to people who don’t know any better. That’s not a good future for the human race. That’s our past. So it’s time to abandon the religion of environmentalism, and return to the science of environmentalism, and base our public policy decisions firmly on that.

Thank you very much.

The post The Greatest Challenge Facing Mankind appeared first on The Big Picture.

Futures Flat As Silver Soars To 11 Year High

Zero Hedge -

Futures Flat As Silver Soars To 11 Year High

US equity futures are flat, with cash markets of course closed for Labor Day holiday, stabilizing after Friday's selloff in tech stocks amid renewed Nvidia jitters, and setting a steadier tone at the start of a month that could bring plenty of tests to markets trading near record highs. S&P futures were unchanged with Nasdaq futures rising 0.1% to start a traditionally brutal month for markets. 

The stock rally to all-time highs faces a crucial stretch, with jobs numbers, inflation data and the Fed’s rate call all landing within the next three weeks, while September is notorious for hosting some of the worst market selloffs. The flurry of events will help determine whether stocks can extend gains or lose momentum.

Tariff tensions and questions over the Fed’s independence are compounding the risks.

“The bar to derail a Fed Rate cut on Sept. 17 appears high,” Deutsche Bank AG economist Peter Sidorov wrote. “But with Fed funds futures now pricing over 140 basis points of easing by the end of 2026, markets are expecting an amount of easing that since the 1980s has only occurred around recessions.”

Europe’s Stoxx 600 edged 0.1% higher with BAE Systems and Rheinmetall AG leading the advances in defense shares after the Financial Times reported that Europe is working on detailed plans for potential post-conflict deployments in Ukraine. Novo Nordisk lead a rally in health care shares after positive results from a real-world cardiovascular study for Wegovy. A regional gauge for tech stocks eked out a small gain. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

  • Rolls Royce shares climb as much as 2.4% amid reports it has held exploratory talks with advisers over funding options for its small-scale nuclear reactor unit.
  • European defense stocks, including BAE Systems and Rheinmetall, gained after the Financial Times reported that European capitals are working on “pretty precise plans” for potential military deployments to Ukraine as part of post-conflict security guarantees, citing an interview with Ursula von der Leyen.
  • Novo Nordisk shares rise as much as 3.6% after the Danish drugmaker said a real-world study of people with overweight or obesity and established cardiovascular disease showed Wegovy cut the risk of heart attack, stroke or death by 57% compared with Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide.
  • Konecranes shares rise as much as 6.3% after the Finnish company was upgraded to buy by Goldman Sachs, which cites US port upgrades and a potential increase in shareholder returns as catalysts for the stock.
  • European precious metal miners, including Hochschild Mining and Fresnillo, rise as silver surges above $40 an ounce for the first time since 2011 and gold closes in on an all-time high.
  • TeamViewer gains as much as 11% following a double-upgrade to buy from underperform at BofA, which takes a more constructive stance on the German software company based on its “differentiated offering.”
  • SocGen gains as much as 1.9% on Monday as Deutsche Bank upgrades the lender to buy from hold, saying that impact from the ongoing political volatility in France “should be contained.”
  • Kainos shares soar as much as 20% after the IT services company said it expects annual revenue to be at the upper-end of expectations. Shore Capital said the update has revived sentiment by offering a more constructive tone and signs of momentum.
  • BioArctic shares rise as much as 5.6% to the highest since September 2023 after Eisai and Biogen received US regulatory approval for a new self-injected form of their Alzheimer’s drug Leqembi.

A stronger economic outlook is set to help European equities escape their narrow trading range, according to top Wall Street strategists. Goldman expects the Stoxx 600 to climb about 2% to 560 by year-end, supported by improving growth prospects, light positioning, and relatively attractive valuations. JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka sees the recent loss of momentum as a “healthy” development.

Asian equities were mixed, with a 19% surge in Alibaba Group contrasting with a slump in chipmaking shares. Elsewhere, Indonesian stocks tumbled the most in nearly five months as political risks flared, with President Prabowo Subianto canceling a China trip after deadly unrest over living costs and inequality. Stress also was evident in the bond market, with yields on the nation’s 10-year government note rising to the highest in almost three weeks. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1%. The Swedish krona and Norwegian krone lead gains against the greenback, rising 0.6% each.

In rates, US cash bond markets are closed, while European bonds weakened broadly, with a week to go before a confidence vote that could topple France’s government. The French-German 10-year spread, a key measure of risk, was little changed at 78 basis points. The gauge closed at 82 on Aug. 27, the highest since January.

In commodities, silver rose above $40 an ounce for the first time since 2011...

... while gold inched closer to an all-time high after last week's breakout, as optimism grew for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month.

WTI crude futures rise 1% to near $64.70 a barrel.

There is nothing on the US macro calendar because the US is closed for Labor Day holiday.

DB's Peter Sidorov concludes the overnight wrap

As it’s the start of the month, Henry will shortly be releasing our monthly asset performance review. August began with a risk-off tone after the underwhelming July US jobs report, but markets soon recovered and the S&P 500 hit fresh records, in part thanks to a dovish pivot by Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole. Nevertheless, there were several headwinds, including concerns about the Fed’s independence that led to higher inflation expectations and steeper yield curves. Meanwhile in France, the upcoming confidence vote saw the country’s 10yr yields move closer to Italy’s than at any time since 2003. See the full report in your inboxes shortly, while a rundown of last week’s moves is at the end of this text as usual.

After a strong August, risk assets are starting September on a more tentative footing as Friday’s tech-led sell off on Wall Street has continued across most of Asia this morning. With rising Fed rate cut pricing supporting markets of late, investors will be keenly watching whether this is validated by the upcoming US payrolls release on Friday. The bar to derail a Fed rate cut on September 17 appears high, but with fed funds futures now pricing over 140bps of easing by the end of 2026, markets are expecting an amount of easing that since the 1980s has only occurred around recessions.

Before we preview payrolls and the Fed in more detail, the major story of the weekend came as late on Friday a US federal appeals court ruled that tariffs introduced under International Economist Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) were illegal, upholding an earlier ruling by the Court of International Trade. However, in its 7-4 ruling the court left the tariffs in place until October 14 giving the administration time to appeal the case to the Supreme Court. And while a majority of judges in the appeals court ruling were nominated by Democrat Presidents, there is a 6-3 Republican-appointed majority on the Supreme Court. Were IEEPA tariffs to be stuck down, this would invalidate most levies introduced this year, including the “reciprocal” country rates and the “fentanyl” tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, though the administration could look to implement more levies via other statutes.

Turning to the US payrolls print on Friday, our US economists expect a modest pick up in both headline (DBe +100k vs. 73k previously) and private (+100k vs. 83k) payrolls. They see the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%, with a risk that it rounds down to 4.1%. With Powell leaning towards a near-term rate cut at Jackson Hole and markets now pricing an 87% chance of a September cut, it would likely take a huge payrolls outperformance to dissuade a September cut. However, a stable unemployment rate could alleviate fears of a material downshift in the labor market, keeping the Fed cautious on further rate cuts.

The payrolls release will be preceded by the JOLTS survey on Wednesday and the ADP report on Thursday, two labour market indicators that have been namechecked by Governor Waller, who last week suggested that a weak payrolls print could bring a 50bp September cut in play. Other Fed officials have been less dovish but have also noted labour market risks. We will see a few Fed speakers before the blackout window starts next weekend, including St. Louis Fed President Musalem (Wednesday), NY Fed President Williams (Thursday) and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (Thursday).

Beyond the Fedspeak, markets will be glued to the latest newsflow around President Trump’s attempted removal of Fed Governor Cook. Friday’s court hearing on the injunction to block Trump from firing her yielded no decision with further filings expected this Tuesday. In a note last week (see here Fed Notes: What the announcement of Cook’s removal means for the Fed) our US economists discussed the possible implications if Governor Cook were to be removed and Trump were to achieve a majority on the Federal Reserve Board. This Thursday, the Senate Banking Committee will also hold a hearing on Stephen Miran’s confirmation for the vacant Fed Board seat as the White House looks to have him confirmed in time for the September FOMC.

While US markets will be closed today for Labor Day, other US data highlights this week will include ISM manufacturing (Tuesday) and services (Thu) prints, with the employment components of the two series, which have slipped over the past couple of months, likely to draw attention. In Europe, the main data release will be the euro area flash August CPI print tomorrow. Following the major country prints on Friday, our European economists see headline inflation rising marginally to +2.06% YoY (vs 2.0% prev.) with core falling to +2.22% (vs 2.3% prev.).

The political situation in France will remain in focus ahead of the confidence vote scheduled on September 8. Prime Minister Bayrou’s minority government looks likely to lose this with major opposition parties repeating their intent to vote against the government over the weekend. In a note published on Friday (see here), our European economists outline the next key steps and likely paths forward and discuss the ECB’s likely reaction function to the situation in France.
Staying with geopolitics, the focus yesterday and today is on China hosting the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. Yesterday China’s Xi Jinping met with India’s Narendra Modi, with the two sides pledging to “remain partners rather than rivals”. The summit has received extra attention amid Trump’s tariff pressure on Asian countries, and Modi will also meet with Russia’s Vladimir Putin today, shortly after the US raised tariffs on India to 50% last week in response to its purchases of Russian oil.

Most Asian equity markets have started the new month on a weaker footing overnight following on Friday’s tech sell-off on Wall Street. The Nikkei (-1.60%) is leading the declines across the region, with tech stocks coming under pressure, including a -4.99% decline for Softbank. The KOSPI (-1.36%) is also struggling following US government's decision on Friday to revoke waivers on shipping chipmaking equipment to China for Samsung Electronics (-2.58%) and SK Hynix (-4.93%), with the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.53%) also lower. Meanwhile, US equity futures on both the S&P 500 (-0.09%) and the NASDAQ (-0.19%) are slightly lower after initially opening higher this morning.

However, Chinese stocks are defying the trend, with the Hang Seng (+1.77%) powering ahead as Alibaba Group’s stock surged by +17% after reporting a substantial triple-digit percentage increase in AI-related product revenue in its results on Friday. The CSI (+0.11%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.42%) are inching higher as the RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI rose to a 5-month high of 50.5 in August (49.8 expected) from 49.5 in July. This comes in contrast to the official PMI figures on Sunday, which saw the manufacturing PMI (49.4 vs 49.5 exp, 49.3 prev) stay below 50. That said, China’s official non-manufacturing PMI rose from 50.1 to 50.3 (50.2 expected).

Recapping last week, the S&P 500 reached new all-time highs on Wednesday and Thursday but ended the week -0.10% lower after a -0.64% decline on Friday, which was its biggest since August 1. Tech stocks led the decline, with the NASDAQ and Mag-7 down by -1.15% and -1.38% respectively on Friday. Nvidia (-3.32% on Friday) was a major driver of this softness, losing ground after Marvell Technology’s outlook raised doubts over demand for data-centre equipment and as China’s Alibaba unveiled a new AI Chip. Last Wednesday Nvidia’s results had delivered a modest quarterly beat but saw slowing revenue growth for the data centre division, in part due to a pause in sales of AI chips to China.

Earlier in the week, markets had been buoyed by solid US data, including an upwardly revised Q2 GDP print (3.3% vs. 3.0% flash) and solid July durable goods orders. Friday saw a more mixed set of US releases. Core PCE inflation for August came largely in line with expectations at +0.27% MoM and +2.9% YoY, while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment saw an unexpected decline in the final August reading, with median 5-10 year inflation expectations also seeing a downward revision from 3.9% to 3.5%.

This data reinforced rising expectations of Fed rate cuts that were also boosted by Trump’s move against Fed Governor Cook. Fed funds futures ended the week pricing 109bps of easing by next June (+2.6bps on the week), with the 2yr Treasury yield falling -7.9bps to 3.62% (-1.3bps Friday), its lowest weekly close since September 2024. At the same time, concerns about Fed independence led to a sizable steepening in the yield curve, with the 10yr yield down a modest -2.5bps to 4.23% (+2.5bps Friday) but the 30yr yield up +5.2bps to 4.93%, leaving the 2s30s slope at its steepest since November 2021.

In Europe, French assets saw significant losses after PM Bayrou’s call for a confidence vote. The CAC 40 was down -3.34% (-0.76% Friday), while the Stoxx 600 fell -1.99% (-0.64% Friday) with all major European indices declining. 10yr OAT yields rose +9.1bps, as the Franco-German 10yr spread ended the week at 79bps after hitting a 7-month high of 82bps on Wednesday. Other government bonds saw more muted moves, with 10yr bund yields +0.3bps higher (+3.0bps Friday), while BTP yields rose +6.1bps (+4.9bps Friday) suffering some contagion from the France story.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 10:20

Afghanistan Border-Town Rattled: 800+ Killed In Powerful Earthquake

Zero Hedge -

Afghanistan Border-Town Rattled: 800+ Killed In Powerful Earthquake

A powerful 6.0-magnitude earthquake struck near the mountainous areas of the Afghan-Pakistan border overnight, resulting in the death of at least 800 people and 2,500 injuries. The death toll is expected to rise, The New York Times reported, citing local Afghan officials.

The epicenter of the quake was centered near the city of Jalalabad, home to 200,000 people. Most of the destruction was situated in the province of Kunar, north of Jalalabad, where landslides were reported and mud and brick houses were destroyed. 

Source: Wall Street Journal

Footage of the destruction:

Notable quake-disaster highlights from the Wall Street Journal:

Casualties and Injuries

  • More than 800 dead, with the toll expected to rise as many remain buried under debris.

  • Over 2,500 injured, according to Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid.

  • Many victims were women and children, asleep when the quake hit.

Rescue and Relief Challenges

  • Remote terrain and landslides have destroyed roads, slowing rescue operations. The 200-bed provincial hospital is overwhelmed, with the injured lying outside in open areas. 

Emergency Response

  • The Taliban government has deployed rescue teams and arranged special flights to transport casualties.

  • UN agencies and WHO are providing emergency aid.

  • Hundreds of Afghan youth are donating blood at Nangarhar Regional Hospital.

  • India and Pakistan expressed condolences and offered assistance.

  • Pakistan reported no casualties or major damage on its side of the border.

The quake comes as no surprise, given that Afghanistan sits on fault lines between the Arabian, Eurasian, and Indian plates.

In October 2023, two major quakes killed 2,400 people. The Taliban will be tested by their response effort, perhaps even putting those U.S. helicopters to good use.

. . .

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 09:45

U.S. Freezes Visas For Palestinian Passport Holders Amid Mounting National Security Threats 

Zero Hedge -

U.S. Freezes Visas For Palestinian Passport Holders Amid Mounting National Security Threats 

Weeks after the Trump administration paused approvals of visitor visas for people of Gaza, the New York Times now reports that the administration has broadened the suspension to cover nearly all categories of visitor visas for Palestinian passport holders. 

NYT cited an August 18 State Department cable, sent to U.S. embassies and consulates abroad, detailing new sweeping measures that would bar many Palestinians from entering the U.S. on various types of non-immigrant visas. The cable was obtained by the media outlet and confirmed by four anonymous U.S. officials.

Impacted Palestinian visas include medical treatment, university studies, visits to friends or relatives, and business travel. 

U.S. consular officers have been instructed to invoke Section 221(g) of the Immigration Nationality Act (INA), a legal provision that allows them to refuse visa applications from Palestinian passport holders temporarily.

"Effective immediately, consular officers are instructed to refuse under 221(g) of the Immigration Nationality Act all otherwise eligible Palestinian Authority passport holders using that passport to apply for a non-immigrant visa," the State Department cable said.

NYT spoke with Kerry Doyle, the former lead attorney for Immigration and Customs Enforcement under the Biden-Harris regime, who said the Trump administration should be open about its decision-making:

"If it's a true ban, then it's concerning to me in that they should be transparent about it and then make their arguments for the basis of such a ban." 

Last month, the State Department halted visitor visas for the roughly two million Palestinians from Gaza. This came shortly after Laura Loomer called incoming flights a "national security threat ..." 

The national security threat Loomer could be describing appears to come from one of her X posts: "We have been totally infiltrated by Islamic jihadists. The Palestinian movement is a terrorist movement."

Perhaps the scrutiny is centered on the Samidoun Palestinian Prisoner Solidarity Network, or 'Samidoun,' a dark-money-funded non-profit that acts as an international fundraising arm for the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) terrorist organization, which has been active in North America and linked to efforts ranging from disrupting critical infrastructure to organizing campus protests and riots

PFLP states in their manifesto about their weird obsession with Marxism and their dream of destroying capitalism across the West.

Late last month, Senator Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) sounded the alarm about a separate rogue non-profit, Palestinian Youth Movement (PYM), a leftist activist group closely aligned with Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP), accusing it of working across university campuses to incite anti-Israel protests and campus chaos.

"PYM's support of Hamas and ties to terror groups should prevent it from receiving tax-exempt donations. I'm asking the IRS to investigate and remedy this situation," Cotton wrote on X last month

We suspect that the Trump administration views the potential influx of Palestinians as a national security threat, given the Marxist revolutionary activities of Samidoun, the PFLP, and other affiliated groups already underway on the Homeland.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 08:35

Housing September 1st Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.1% Week-over-week; Down 10.3% from 2019 Levels

Calculated Risk -

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.1% week-over-week.
Inventory is now up 37.8% from the seasonal bottom in January.   Usually, inventory is up about 21.5% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 saw a larger than normal increase in inventory.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Altos Year-over-year Home InventoryClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 22.4% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 22.2%), and down 10.3% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 9.4%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed more than half of that gap, and it appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels at the end of 2025.
Altos Home InventoryThis second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of August 29th, inventory was at 861 thousand (7-day average), compared to 861 thousand the prior week. 
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

Bitcoin No Longer Plays Gold's Game

Zero Hedge -

Bitcoin No Longer Plays Gold's Game

Authored by Armando Aguilar via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin was treated as a purely inert asset for years: a decentralized vault, economically passive despite its fixed issuance schedule. Yet more than $7 billion worth of Bitcoin already earns native, onchain yield via major protocols — that premise is breaking down. 

Gold’s ~$23-trillion market cap mostly sits idle. Bitcoin, by contrast, now earns onchain, while holders keep custody.

As new layers unlock returns, Bitcoin crosses a structural threshold: from merely passive to productively scarce.

That change is quietly redefining how capital prices risk, how institutions allocate reserves and how portfolio theory accounts for safety. Scarcity may explain price stability. Still, productivity explains why miners, treasuries and funds are now parking assets in BTC rather than just building around it.

A vault asset that earns yield isn’t digital gold anymore — it’s productive capital.

Scarcity matters, but productivity rules

Bitcoin’s economic DNA hasn’t changed: The supply remains capped at 21 million, the issuance schedule is transparent, and no central authority can inflate or censor it. Scarcity, auditability and resistance to manipulation always set Bitcoin apart, but in 2025, these differentiating and unique factors started to mean something more.

As the issuance rate is locked, even as new protocol layers allow BTC to generate onchain returns, Bitcoin is now gaining traction for what it will enable. A new set of tools gives holders the ability to earn real yield without giving up custody, relying on centralized platforms and altering the base protocol. It leaves Bitcoin’s core mechanics untouched but changes how capital engages with the asset.

We’re already seeing that effect in practice. Bitcoin is the only crypto asset officially held in sovereign reserves: El Salvador continues to allocate BTC in its national treasury, and a 2025 US executive order recognized Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for critical infrastructure. Meanwhile, spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) now hold over 1.26 million BTC — more than 6% of the total supply. 

Also on the mining side, public miners are no longer rushing to sell. Instead, a growing share allocates BTC into staking and synthetic yield strategies to improve long-term returns.

It’s becoming evident that the original value proposition has evolved subtly in design but profoundly in effect. What once made Bitcoin trustworthy now also makes it powerful — a once passive asset is becoming a yield-producing asset. This lays the foundation for what comes next: a native yield curve that forms around Bitcoin itself, not to mention Bitcoin‑linked assets.

Bitcoin earns without giving up control

Until recently, the idea of earning a return on crypto seemed out of reach. In Bitcoin’s case, it was hard to find non-custodial yield, at least without compromising its base-layer neutrality. But that assumption no longer holds. Today, new protocol layers let holders put BTC to work in ways once limited to centralized platforms.

Some platforms let long-term holders stake native BTC to help secure the network while earning yield, without wrapping the asset or moving it across chains. In turn, others allow users to use their Bitcoin in decentralized finance apps, earning fees from swaps and lending without giving up ownership. And the catch is that none of these systems require handing over keys to a third party, and none rely on the kind of opaque yield games that caused problems in the past.

At this point, it’s clear that this is no longer pilot-scale. In addition, miner-aligned strategies are quietly gaining traction among firms looking to boost treasury efficiency without leaving the Bitcoin ecosystem. As a result, a yield curve native to Bitcoin and grounded in transparency is starting to take shape.

Once Bitcoin yield becomes accessible and self-custodied, another problem emerges: How do you measure it? If protocols are becoming available and accessible, then clarity is missing. Because without a standard to describe what productive BTC earns, investors, treasuries and miners are left making decisions in the dark.

Time to benchmark Bitcoin yield

If Bitcoin can earn a return, then the next logical step is a straightforward way to measure it.

Right now, there’s no standard. Some investors see BTC as hedge capital; others put it to work and collect yield. However, there are inconsistencies in what the actual benchmark to measure Bitcoin should be, as there are no real comparable assets. For example, a treasury team might lock coins for a week but doesn’t have a simple way to explain the risk, or a miner might route rewards into a yield strategy but still treat it as treasury diversification. 

Consider a mid-sized decentralized autonomous organization with 1,200 BTC and six months of payroll ahead. It puts half into a 30-day vault on a Bitcoin-secured protocol and earns yield. But without a baseline, the team can’t say whether that’s a cautious move or a risky one. The same choice might be praised as clever treasury work or criticized as yield-chasing, depending on who analyzes the approach.

What Bitcoin needs is a benchmark. Not a “risk‑free rate” in the bond market sense, but a baseline: repeatable, self-custodied and onchain yield that can be generated natively on Bitcoin, net of fees, grouped by term lengths — seven days, 30, 90. Just enough structure to turn yield from guesswork into something that can be referenced and used as a benchmark.

Once that exists, treasury policies, disclosures and strategies can be built around it, and everything above that baseline can be priced for what it is: risk worth taking or not.

That’s where the metaphor with gold breaks down. Gold doesn’t pay you — productive Bitcoin does. The longer treasuries treat BTC like a vault trinket with no return, the easier it is to see who’s managing capital — and who’s simply storing it.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 08:00

Opioids More Likely To Kill Than Car Crashes Or Suicide

Zero Hedge -

Opioids More Likely To Kill Than Car Crashes Or Suicide

The National Safety Council reports that Americans are more likely to die from an opioid overdose than a car crash or suicide.

As Statista';s Katharina Buchholz shows in the following chart, the likelihood of dying from opioid use in the U.S. increased from lifetime odds of one in 96 in 2017 to one in 57 in 2023 (down from one in 55 in 2022).

The same year, someone living in the U.S. only had one in 87 odds of dying of suicide and a one in 95 chance of dying in a car crash.

 Opioids More Likely to Kill Than Car Crashes or Suicide | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Potent and deadly synthetic opioid fentanyl - which is often mixed with heroin without the knowledge of drug users - contributed to this dismal development together with the ongoing crisis of prescription pain killer misuse.

The U.S. experienced 105,000 overdose deaths in 2023, down from 2022 after a severe uptick during the coronavirus pandemic.

The most likely cause of death in the U.S. continues to be heart disease with lifetime odds of 1 in 6, followed by cancer and stroke.

Covid-19 lifetime odds were similar to those of stroke in previous years, but are no longer reported by the source.

Despite being a common fear, the chances of dying due to gun assault stand at only one in 238, but are still greater than drowning or choking to death, which have odds of around one in 1,000 and one in 2,500, respectively.

Dying in a dog attack remains highly unlikely with the chances of that happening at one in 44,499.

Dying in a hurricane or tornado or any other storm event is actually more likely at one in 39,192.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 07:20

Russia Gears Up For New Nuclear Missile Test

Zero Hedge -

Russia Gears Up For New Nuclear Missile Test

Authored by RFE/RL Staff via OilPrice.com,

  • Significant activity on Russia's Novaya Zemlya archipelago indicates an impending test of the nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile, known as Skyfall by NATO.

  • The Burevestnik, a complex system designed to carry a nuclear warhead and evade missile defenses, has a history of development failures, including a deadly explosion in 2019.

  • The timing of the potential test, along with high-level Russian military and nuclear official visits, suggests the missile is nearing operational deployment, driven by Russia's desire for prestige and defense against US missile shields.

It's been a busy few weeks up on the windswept Russian archipelago of Novaya Zemlya: people, earthmoving trucks, shipping containers, temporary housing, heavy-lift aircraft, helicopters, cargo ships.

The activity shows up in satellite imagery, aircraft hazard notifications, ship transponder trackers, and open-source intelligence reporting at a time when long Arctic days and good weather mean favorable conditions for building projects at the Pankovo test range and nearby air base.

The betting money for close watchers of Russian weapons development is on another test of a trouble-plagued, nuclear-powered cruise missile called the Burevestnik.

"The operational sites for this system are almost complete. This is going to be an operational system pretty soon here," said Decker Eveleth, a researcher at the suburban Washington-based Center for Naval Analyses, who examined satellite imagery of the sites in July and August. "This may have been the final check before operational testing and evaluation."

"They're clearly pretty far long," he said.

"I wouldn't be surprised if the test has already happened," said Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based arms control researcher and expert on Russia's nuclear forces.

The missile, dubbed Skyfall by NATO, has been under development for more than a decade now. It's one of several new systems Russian designers have focused on as the Kremlin pours money into weapons development as part of a not fully recognized arms race -- mainly against the United States.

Others include the Sarmat international continental ballistic missile, a nuclear-powered, nuclear-tipped torpedo called Poseidon, and a hypersonic missile called Avangard.

Russian President Vladimir Putin talked up many of the weapons elaborate public ceremonies in 2018 and 2019. Two of the new weapons, the Kinzhal and Tsirkon missiles, have been used in Ukraine. The Sarmat has also been tested, though last year it suffered a major mishap.

The Burevestnik has drawn particular attention from arms control and intelligence experts, partly because of the technology but also its past failures.

The missile is powered essentially by a small nuclear reactor built into the engine, theoretically enabling it to stay aloft for days.

It "would carry a nuclear warhead; circle the globe at low altitude, avoid missile defenses, and dodge terrain; and drop the warhead at a difficult-to-predict location," according to a 2019 report by the Washington-based Nuclear Threat Initiative.

U.S. intelligence reports say the missile has been tested at least a dozen times, including in 2017 and 2019.

Death At Nyonoksa

Among the places Russia has tested the Burevestnik is the White Sea, west of the city of Arkhangelsk, near the port of Severodvinsk.

In August 2019, while trying to raise a Burevestnik from the seabed near the town of Nyonoksa, an explosion occurred that spewed radiation over a wide area, including Severodvinsk. The blast also killed at least five Russian nuclear specialists from the state-owned nuclear company Rosatom, which is believed to have spearheaded the Burevestnik's development.

The explosion, US officials later concluded, "was the result of a nuclear reaction that occurred during the recovery of a Russian nuclear-powered cruise missile."

Two years earlier, another missile, also believed to be a Burevestnik, crashed somewhere in the Barents Sea, west of Novaya Zemlya, according to US intelligence officials.

"They've been developing this system for well over a decade. And it hasn't really gone very well for a long time," Eveleth said. "People died…and they didn't give up. They kept going for it…. They kept going for it for 15 years. And they are really dedicated to it."

Constant Phoenix, Nuke Sniffing

The activity at Pankovo in late July was highlighted in part by Eveleth and Jeffrey Lewis of Middlebury's Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California. Burevestnik testing was moved out of the White Sea following the Nyonoksa accident and resumed in 2021 on Novaya Zemlya, which is more remote.

In early August, Russian authorities also released a NOTAM, according to the Barents Observer newspaper, which first reported the advisory. NOTAMs are internally recognized advisories for aircraft -- a warning for pilots and ship captains, in this case, to avoid a wide area west of Novaya Zemlya.

Meanwhile, an unusually large number of fighter jets, cargo jets, and helicopters appeared parked at the Rogachevo air base on the southwestern coast of Novaya Zemlya. The aircraft appeared to include an A-50, an airborne radar and warning system experts say is rarely seen so far north; and Il-76 SKIPs, jets designed to gather electronic signals and missile telemetry data.

Open-source aircraft trackers also noted a US Air Force WC-135 jet in the airspace north of the Kola Peninsula and west of Novaya Zemlya. Known as Constant Phoenix, the jet is designed to gather samples of airborne particles to detect specific radioactive isotopes released from nuclear weapons tests.

The most recent satellite imagery, Eveleth said, suggests Russian workers have now packed up equipment on Novaya Zemlya, indicating, he said, that a test had been conducted.

'Why Is This Such a Big Deal?'

The timing for a test was also auspicious from the point of view of Russian messaging, Lewis said in a podcast released August 20, coming around the time that Putin met US President Donald Trump for a summit in Alaska.

Another bit of evidence came on August 22 when Putin traveled to the central city of Sarov. Formerly a closed city known as Arzamas-16, Sarov has for decades been the heart of the Soviet and Russian nuclear programs: "the equivalent of Los Alamos," Podvig said, referring to the home of the US atomic weapons program.

Among the dignitaries greeting Putin on the tarmac at Sarov was the chairman of Russia's General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, as well as Sergei Kiriyenko, who headed Rosatom until 2016, when he took a top post in the Kremlin.

"The combination of all these things -- the test activity, the apparent preparation for deployment, and this visit -- again this would be a good occasion for Putin, for the Sarov [engineers] to demonstrate that this is what we've done, we've fulfilled the assignment," Podvig said.

"Why is this such a big deal for them?" Eveleth said. "First, the sophistication and prestige of the Russian nuclear arsenal is very important" to Putin and his government.

"Second, they're worried about [US] missile defenses, they want to hedge against an effective missile shield and this system is technically capable of evading certain systems," he said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 06:40

10 Labor Day Reads

The Big Picture -

My end of Summer, welcome to September, Labor Day morning reads:

Is summer getting longer where you live? In recent decades, sweat-inducing temperatures have been arriving earlier and ending later in the year. An analysis of U.S. weather data shows which places are experiencing notably longer summer seasons than they were three decades ago. Temperatures are spiking to levels typically seen in June earlier than expected and lingering longer at the end of the season. (Washington Post)

US Trading Partners ‘Dazed and Confused’ After Tariff Court Loss: A federal appeals court ruled that President Trump’s global tariffs were issued illegally under an emergency law, upholding a May ruling by the Court of International Trade. The ruling applies to Trump’s “Liberation Day” global tariffs and affects the extra levies on Mexico, China, and Canada, with a final ruling against the tariffs potentially upending Trump’s trade deals. gift article (Bloomberg) see also Bessent on Tariffs, Deficits and Embracing Trump’s Economic Plan: The US Treasury secretary has the ear of an impulsive president—and nervous investors worldwide hope it stays that way. An exclusive interview. (Bloomberg)

Scrolling instead of working? YouTuber Hank Green’s new app wants to help: Can a smiley cartoon bean help you stay focused? Hank Green, one of the earliest and most influential online creators, hopes so. The app, called Focus Friend, features a smiling cartoon bean that encourages users to boost their productivity. (NBC News)

AI ‘deadbots’ are persuasive — and researchers say they’re primed for monetization: AI avatars of deceased people — or “deadbots” — are showing up in new and unexpected contexts, including ones where they have the power to persuade. (NPR)

Inside Bridgehampton, the Most Expensive Place to Buy a Home in New York: The Hamptons enclave draws well-to-do buyers to its sandy beaches, small-town charm and diverse housing stock. (Wall Street Journal) see also Can’t Afford a House? Try Baltic Avenue. It’s getting harder to become a homeowner. But in Monopoly, The Game of Life and The Sims, the rules are simple: Play your cards right, and you’ll get a house.(New York Times)

The Glorious Future of the Book: It’s still the best data center of them all.  (The Honest Broker)

• Scientists can make an enormous difference in the world. Counting lives saved is difficult, but it can show us the great difference some people have made. (Our World In Data)

One Universal Antiviral to Rule Them All? Taking inspiration from a rare mutation that makes people impervious to viral diseases, a Columbia researcher is developing a therapy that could bestow this superpower on the rest of us. (Columbia / Irving Medical Center) see also What Does It Take to Get Men to See a Doctor? Men in the United States live around five years less than women. One clinic is trying to persuade men that getting checked out could save their life. (New York Times)

What brain surgery taught me about the fragile gift of consciousness: After the trauma of a high-risk medical procedure, Eric Markowitz discovered a kind of consciousness that lives not in thought — but in presence. (Big Think)

The Cracks in America’s Rule of Law Are Getting Deeper: Court battles over the administration’s sweeping use of executive power are exposing limits on how much judges can constrain the presidency. (Bloomberg)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody’s Corp. Dr. Zandi is a cofounder of Economy.com, which Moody’s purchased in 2005. He currently hosts the “Inside Economics” podcast.

 

Existing homes are now more expensive than new ones… That’s not normal.

Source: Sherwood

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Labor Day Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

These Are The Countries With The Largest Christian Populations

Zero Hedge -

These Are The Countries With The Largest Christian Populations

There are 2.2 billion Christians in the world, which means one out of every four people is a Christian.

The visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Pallavi Rao, compares the 25 countries with the largest Christian populations, revealing how demographic trends, migration, and conversion have shaped Christianity’s current global footprint.

The data for this ranking comes from the CIA World FactbookPew Research and UN World Population Prospects.

Estimated religious shares between 2020–2024 from the first two sources are applied to 2025 population figures to arrive at an estimated for number of Christians in each country.

The Americas Are Christianity Central

With more than 219 million Christians, the U.S. remains the single largest Christian nation.

Although its Christian share has fallen for decades, the overall population continues to grow, keeping the country firmly at the top of the list.

Note: Includes all denominations.

Brazil (169 million) and Mexico (118 million) rank second and third.

Both countries have historically been Catholic strongholds, though Brazil has witnessed a rapid rise in evangelical denominations over the past generation.

Together, the three giants account for nearly a quarter of all Christians worldwide.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s is Reshaping the Christian Faith

Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, and Kenya illustrate Christianity’s fast-growing presence south of the Sahara.

Nigeria alone has about 109 million Christians, almost equal to the entire population of the Philippines.

High fertility rates and youthful demographics mean Africa’s share of global Christians will keep rising well past 2050.

Most of these African nations also have large non-Christian populations.

Nigeria is almost evenly split between Christians and Muslims, while Ethiopia’s Christian majority coexists with a sizable Muslim minority.

Minority Christian Communities in Population Giants

China and India appear in the ranking despite Christians making up only 5% and 2% of their populations, respectively.

Sheer population size—over 1.4 billion people each—translates into tens of millions of believers even when Christianity is a small minority.

The presence of 72 million Chinese and 34 million Indian Christians underscores how religious minorities can still represent significant global communities.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Ranked: Countries With the Largest Muslim Populations on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 06:00

Conservatives Rage After UK Court Of Appeal Rules With Govt To Keep Migrant Hotel Open

Zero Hedge -

Conservatives Rage After UK Court Of Appeal Rules With Govt To Keep Migrant Hotel Open

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The British government has won its legal fight against a local council that sought to shut down a migrant hotel in Essex.

The Court of Appeal ruled on Friday that a temporary injunction obtained by Epping Forest District Council against the continued use of the Bell Hotel to house asylum seekers should be overturned.

During the hearing, Home Office lawyers argued that the human rights of asylum seekers outweighed the council’s decision to close the hotel. The council had insisted that Somani Hotels, which owns the Bell Hotel, was in breach of planning law by changing its use to accommodate migrants. But the judges found that the lower court, which granted the injunction, had made errors that “undermine his decision.”

The ruling lifts the interim injunction and scraps a Sept. 12 deadline for asylum seekers to be relocated. A final appeal hearing will take place later this year.

The hotel has been at the center of controversy in recent months after anti-immigration protests erupted in the town, following the arrest of one of its occupants on suspicion of sexually assaulting a 14-year-old schoolgirl.

The Court of Appeal’s decision has sparked anger among opposition lawmakers, who accused Labour of prioritizing the rights of illegal immigrants over the safety of local communities.

Robert Jenrick, the Conservatives’ shadow justice secretary, posted: “Starmer’s government has shown itself to be on the side of illegal migrants who have broken into our country.”

Rupert Lowe, an MP and leader of Restore Britain, wrote: “A Government against its own people. No more appeals, court cases, or debates. We must deport the illegal migrants. Not some of them. Not most of them. All of them.” He later called for the Home Office to be abolished.

Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservative Party, said the ruling was a setback but vowed to keep fighting: “Local communities should not pay the price for Labour’s total failure on illegal immigration. This ruling is a setback, but it is not the end. I say to Conservative councils seeking similar injunctions against asylum hotels – keep going! Every case has different circumstances, and I know good Conservative councils will keep fighting for residents, so we will keep working with them every step of the way.”

Ben Habib, leader of Advance UK, echoed the anger: “He says he wants to shut illegal migrant hotels, but Keir Starmer fights tooth and nail to keep them open. Against the wishes of local residents and the local authority, the Epping hotel will now stay open. So much for democracy and the security of British citizens.”

Kelvin MacKenzie, former editor of The Sun, went further, alleging judicial bias: “No surprise Lord Justice Bean, a Labour Party member for 28 years, has in his Appeal Court judgment, stopped the 128 migrants being kicked out of the Bell Hotel in Epping. The law and Labour are in lockstep. A migrant has more rights than a British citizen. A serious moment.”

A full trial to determine the future of the hotel will take place in October.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 05:20

How The European Central Bank Engineered The French Debt-Crisis... And The Next

Zero Hedge -

How The European Central Bank Engineered The French Debt-Crisis... And The Next

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The French debt crisis reminds us that gradualism never works, that statism always ends in ruin and that those countries that bet on more government and higher taxes always end in stagnation, risk of default and social unrest.

France’s government debt-to-GDP exceeds 114%. However, unfunded committed pension liabilities reach 400% of GDP, according to Eurostat. The fiscal deficit announced for this year is 5.4%, but market consensus maintains an expectation of 5.8%. The five-year credit default risk has risen by 20% in twelve months. The yield on French two-year debt exceeds that of Spain, Italy, and Greece, and its risk premium to Germany has reached 80 basis points—20 above that of Spain.

The problem in the euro area is that all the mainstream claps when a government inflates GDP with massive government spending and public sector jobs as well as immigration, disguising persistent fiscal imbalances and declining productivity growth. Furthermore, Keynesian analysts ignore the crowding out of the private sector and the harmful impact of high taxes on long-term public accounts’ sustainability.

I am old enough to remember when the mainstream media hailed Greece as the engine of growth in the eurozone when it was bloating GDP with massive government spending and public sector jobs. Greece was hailed as “safeguarding high economic growth” and “leading the euro area recovery” in 2005 and 2006 by the IMF and the European Commission publications. Headlines and policy reports widely acknowledged Greece’s economic achievements as an example of strong leadership within the euro area. We all know what happened in 2008.

We cannot forget that the European Central Bank has been instrumental in creating the perverse incentives for politicians to maintain and increase elevated spending and fiscal imbalances.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has, over the past decade, deployed a policy toolkit of unprecedented scale—including repeated rate cuts, negative nominal rates, the controversial anti-fragmentation tool, and de facto debt monetisation—designed to safeguard the eurozone’s stability. Yet, for all the rhetoric of stability and independence, these measures have created powerful incentives for fiscal recklessness, eroding the very foundations of European monetary credibility and planting the seeds of today’s sovereign debt crises, including the current French debt debacle.

ECB policy rates, once anchored to discipline both sovereign and private borrowing, have plummeted from above 4% in 2008 to negative territory and have remained in negative real territory for years. Furthermore, the ECB’s asset purchase programmes, expanded during crises under initiatives like the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) and the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT), have saturated bond markets with central bank money and generated an enormous crowding-out effect that penalises credit to families and businesses and disguises solvency issues of public sector issuers.

The anti-fragmentation tool, designed to contain the “spread” between the core and periphery country bonds, takes this issue further: by promising open-ended intervention, the ECB reassures markets that it will backstop sovereign debt at virtually any price, diluting the discipline that risk premia once imposed on profligate governments. In fact, it could be considered a pro-squandering tool, as it benefits those countries with poor fiscal compliance and penalises those who reign in debt and deficits.

While these interventions immediately calm markets, they foster a mindset of indifference in governments, leading them to consistently increase their spending. Thus, many governments, like Spain’s, brag about the low interest rates and spread of their debt despite rising imbalances and worsening public accounts. The anti-fragmentation tool and negative nominal rates destroy the market mechanism that should serve as an essential warning for reckless fiscal policy. Member states, assured of cheap funding and endless ECB support, have little incentive to reform bloated budgets or contain deficits, especially when electorally costly. The persistent threat warned by German policymakers, that ECB actions are subsidising “fiscal freeloading” in high-debt member states, is becoming a reality.

The most dramatic case is France. The French government’s debt has soared above 114% of GDP in 2025, driven in part by persistent large deficits covered cheaply under the ECB’s umbrella. Attempts at fiscal consolidation have always been timid and thus have failed to achieve lasting discipline, with ECB support always in the background as a failsafe. The result is a mounting sovereign risk premium: French bonds, for the first time in modern euro history, now yield more than comparably rated Spanish, Greek, or Italian bonds, signalling the market’s discomfort with France’s debt trajectory even in the age of ECB backstops. The fact that this rise in spreads happens in the middle of a large stimulus plan (Next Generation EU) and rate cuts is even more alarming.

The so-called anti-fragmentation instrument, meant as a crisis containment tool, is inherently a mechanism of “joint liability without joint control”. It binds prudent euro members to the fiscal choices of their less disciplined partners, socialising risk but nationalising rewards. With this facility, markets can no longer efficiently discriminate; anxiety about debt sustainability that once spurred necessary reforms is suppressed rather than solved. Furthermore, it is like debt mutualisation with no real obligations.

The “whatever it takes” philosophy, so lauded by ECB leaders, is now a double-edged sword: it has replaced accountability with dependency and emboldened fiscal laxity.

Central bank purchases and the suppression of yields to nominal negative territory are, by definition, the worst case of debt monetisation. The ECB is a loss-making entity because it purchases bonds even when they are exceedingly expensive. The ECB’s accumulated unrealised paper losses on its asset purchase programmes are estimated at €800 billion, vastly exceeding its capital, according to IERF.

These policies are disguising solvency problems even if dressed in the language of emergency support. This removes the ultimate deterrent to government overspending: the cost of money itself. The long-term result is an environment in which euro area governments, aware that refinancing is guaranteed at low cost even during difficult times, accumulate increasingly larger debts—making the bloc vulnerable to even minor shocks in confidence, inflation, or governance. This situation could likely harm the euro in the future if Germany falls into the same trap as France, a scenario that seems probable given the latest policy announcements.

If you read newspapers in France, this perverse incentive is very evident. Instead of talking about the unsustainable spending path, many demand more central bank purchases and stimulus. Furthermore, some demand the acceleration of the digital euro to implement even more aggressive monetary measures.

The unfolding French debt crisis is a direct byproduct of these policies. France’s spending has persistently outstripped growth, yet the promise of perennial ECB support delayed any reckoning. Now, as risk premia rise and markets test the ECB’s resolve, the eurozone faces the bitter consequences of a policy era marked by moral hazard and eroded fiscal discipline.

While ECB activism may buy temporary stability, its long-term cost is clear: higher debts, private sector weakening, currency debasement, and the erosion of incentives for responsible policymaking. Unless Europe rethinks its reliance on central bank eternal stimuli and restores mechanisms for market discipline, today’s French crisis may be only one of many fiscal storms ahead. The success of the euro as a reserve currency was based on the pillar of fiscal prudence and responsibility. Lack of fiscal discipline always means a risk for the currency.

Central banks cannot print solvency, and the lack of structural reforms and excessive easing policies can end up destroying the euro.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 04:40

Hungary Unleashes Major Drug-Prevention Task-Force To Safeguard 'The Fabric Of Society'

Zero Hedge -

Hungary Unleashes Major Drug-Prevention Task-Force To Safeguard 'The Fabric Of Society'

Via Remix News,

Major General Sándor Töreki, Hungary’s deputy chief of police for criminal matters, has revealed that the Delta action program launched this year has led to a large-scale, offensive professional action to detect drug-related crimes, reports Mandiner. He highlighted that thousands of procedures have been initiated, significant quantities of drugs have been seized, and significant financial assets and assets have been seized from the perpetrators of the crimes. 

The program has been running for six months, and according to Sándor Töreki, professional evaluations are currently underway, and the results will be presented in the near future. 

Prevention, noted the general, is also playing an important role, for which a professional program has been developed. 

“Not only does the school year start on September 1st, but so does drug prevention.”

At a drug prevention press conference this morning, he noted how drug use and drug distribution destroy the fabric of society, that drugs tear apart human communities, and destroy the security of society as a whole. 

Mass consumption of designer drugs has appeared in medium-sized and small settlements across Hungary.

According to the general, the police want to be the driving force behind drug prevention activities. The program will also call upon civilians, as they also need to carry out drug prevention in schools. So far, 3,049 police officers are participating in the REDP program, which school guards are also joining.

With more than 200 million forints available for prevention, Sándor Töreki said that the target audience of the program is students, teachers and parents. They will participate in professional workshops, where the harmful effects of drug use will be presented. Any work done in educational institutions will be constantly monitored and measured via questionnaires. 

There will also be joint programs with prisons, and authorities are continuously investigating what drug prevention programs exist in neighboring countries to learn from them as well. 

According to László Horváth, the government commissioner responsible for the eradication of drug trafficking, strict action is essential, and strict legislation is needed. The goal is to “protect children and ensure their development,” he said. 

According to the politician, drugs now pose a direct threat to all youth, and dealers have also targeted areas around schools. He said that the domestic drug situation has changed recently and a new program is needed, as he highlighted: “The key is to act quickly.” 

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 04:00

The Harsh Truth About Life In Canada Today

Zero Hedge -

The Harsh Truth About Life In Canada Today

Authored by Mikkel Thorup via InternationalMan.com,

Canada is often portrayed as a land of freedom, opportunity, and prosperity. Reality, however, tells a different story...

Statist policies, crushing taxes, bloated bureaucracy, and a society overtaken by woke ideology have shattered Canada. This is a cautionary tale for those looking at Canada as an ideal living space. If you are asking yourself what living in Canada is like, let me explain: Canada is not a land of fulfilled dreams but of enduring harsh conditions and barely getting by.

As if economic hardships aren’t enough, Canadians are also oppressed by the Orwellian newspeak that woke culture is creating. If you speak your mind, you’re labeled a fascist. If you question social policies, you’re accused of microaggressions.

There are no best places to live in Canada anymore. As a Canadian, I see little chance of Canada becoming livable again. Since I founded Expat Money in 2017, I have been helping expats build their Plan-Bs to protect their wealth and freedom and leave countries like this one.

Let’s look at the unfortunate condition that Canada has fallen into.

The Restrictions Imposed During Covid

The strict quarantine measures and harsh government interventions implemented in Canada during the COVID-19 hysteria were shameful. The government expanded police and administrative powers to smash public backlash against its COVID policies.

A significant protest movement called The Freedom Convoy began in early 2022. Truckers and citizens held large demonstrations in Ottawa against vaccination mandates, harsh pandemic restrictions, and the government’s authoritarian tendencies.

Former Prime Minister Trudeau used extraordinary powers to freeze the bank accounts of protesters and crack down on activists. Individual and property rights were arbitrarily violated.

The Canadian government imposed mandatory vaccinations on federal employees, healthcare workers, and those in the transportation sector, turning personal health decisions into state mandates. Those who were not vaccinated were suspended from their jobs, their travel rights were restricted, and they were ostracized from society. Even the private sector was coerced to impose vaccinations under government pressure.

Moreover, harsh lockdowns and restricted entry into the country forced businesses into bankruptcy. Massive numbers of people lost their jobs, and the government’s financial structure was severely damaged.

Woke Culture And The End Of Free Speech

The problems aren’t limited to elections. In recent years, woke ideology has overtaken Canada’s politics, education system, and workplace. This “progressive” ideology has replaced individual freedoms and meritocracy with the so-called principle of inclusivity and equity. As a result, freedom of speech has been destroyed, social engineering has increased, and social polarization has deepened.

In Canada, laws enacted under the guise of “combatting hate speech” have imposed mandatory language use by the government, determining how individuals should speak.

Now, we have another Bill C-11 to update the Broadcasting Act. The government’s media watchdog, the CRTC, will now be able to monitor online platforms such as YouTube, TikTok, and Spotify. Bill C-11 is a censorship tool to kill free speech in Canada. The government may have sugar-coated the law by saying, “We support Canadian content,” but at its core, it’s an attempt to take control of the internet. The government deciding what content is “sufficiently Canadian” will soon become a matter of deciding what content is appropriate, approved, and safe.

What about Bill C-18? This is another example of an intervention that legislates internet censorship under the pretext of “protecting the independent press.” Bill C-18 requires internet platforms (especially companies like Google and Meta) to pay media outlets for news content. The government is turning content sharing into an economic penalty to extract money from big tech companies.

Because of this law, platforms like Google and Meta have decided to remove news content completely. In other words, the government’s move to “access information” has actually restricted access to information.

Similarly, due to cancel culture, academics, business people, and members of the media are censored, fired, and subject to social lynching when they voice different views. Diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies, especially in business and academic institutions, cause decisions to be made based on identity rather than merit. Canadian universities have been degraded from institutions that encourage intellectual freedom into ideological centres where a singular type of thinking is imposed. Companies must prioritize political correctness over efficiency and productivity in business life. Canada has shifted from a society based on individual freedom and voluntary cooperation to a system governed by the ideological impositions of the government.

Assisted Suicide And Moral Decline

Indicators of Canada’s political and economic collapse can also be traced to the individual level. The rapid increase in Medical Assistance in Dying (MAiD) applications in Canada has led to deep debate on personal freedoms, ethical values, ​​and the role of the state in the country.

Canada has the fastest-growing assisted suicide program in the world. When MAiD was legalized in 2016, it only included individuals with terminal illnesses. However, over time, the criteria were relaxed and expanded to include psychological disorders or illnesses that do not have a natural death period. In 2021, approximately 10,000 people ended their lives under MAiD. This number constitutes 3.3% of all deaths. Even people who were experiencing financial difficulties or housing problems resorted to euthanasia, causing heated arguments in the public domain.

In the face of all the challenges, assuming Canada has a functioning social welfare state would be unwise. Canada’s health system is seriously unreliable because of long waiting times, overburdened hospitals, and staff shortages.

Before moving to Canada, be mindful that you can wait months to years for doctor’s appointments and surgeries. The shortage of doctors and nurses severely disrupts health services. Excessive bureaucracy and limited private health services make the health system even more inefficient.

Federal Government Overreach

The federal government’s drama is not Canada’s only political issue. The political conflict between the federal and provincial governments is becoming a serious problem.

There are several main disagreements between the federal and provincial governments:

  • First, the federal government’s carbon tax has drawn fierce criticism from energy-independent provinces such as Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Ontario.

  • Second, the federal government demands that the provinces spend more on healthcare financing, while the provinces say they are underfunded and subject to excessive federal intervention.

  • Third, immigration has exacerbated the housing crisis and the burden on public services in large provinces such as Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia. The provinces demand more funding, saying they shoulder much of the cost burden, but funding is unavailable.

  • Fourth, the federal government’s policies restricting fossil fuel use continue to economically harm provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan, which depend on oil and gas.

It’s no surprise that many people in Alberta and the Prairie provinces responded positively to Trump’s annexation proposal. It reflects a deep and long-standing frustration with federal control over energy policy. At the same time, a grassroots “Make Alberta Great Again” movement is gaining real traction. Pro-separation initiatives are picking up momentum, with growing calls for a referendum on Alberta’s independence.

Even Bill 54, passed in May 2025, lowered the threshold required to trigger a referendum on the province’s sovereignty. Now it’s easier for separatist groups to push for a vote.

I was in Alberta last year and met with several people involved in the movement in person. We spoke at length about the political landscape, their frustrations, and their hopes for Alberta’s future. Many of them told me that, while they believe strongly in the cause, they also know how easily their involvement could make them political targets. That’s why they’re working on their Plan-B strategies to protect themselves and their families if things take a turn for the worse.

Over-Regulation And High Taxes

Strict government regulations and high tax rates in Canada negatively impact economic growth and entrepreneurship by increasing the financial burden on individuals and businesses.

Let me give you an example. Ontario’s total income tax payment can be as high as 53.5%. These high tax rates reduce the disposable income of individuals and businesses and restrict economic mobility. Under the guise of “Tax the rich” and “Pay your fair share,” the Canadian government began taxing capital gains over $250,000 CAD at up to 66.6% starting in 2024. Being an entrepreneur or creating economic productivity in Canada is one of the government’s favourite activities to punish.

High Cost Of Living

Rising real estate prices, the cost of essential consumer goods, and transportation have greatly increased the economic burden on individuals. Real estate prices have reached astronomical levels in cities like Vancouver and Toronto. This fact makes home ownership nearly impossible for the middle class. The lack of affordable housing options is threatening life in Canada.

With average home prices pushing $730,000 CAD ($536,000 USD), double-digit inflation on food and energy, and yet another round of carbon taxes, everyday life in Canada has become flat-out unaffordable. More and more people are waking up to the reality that they can live better, in places like Latin America, for a fraction of the cost and without being punished for simply trying to get ahead.

Most people seeking to migrate to Canada think about living in Toronto. The average rent for a one-bedroom apartment in Toronto is around $ 2,500 CAD ($1,700 USD). If your job is in Vancouver, the average rent for a one-bedroom apartment is around $2,700 CAD ($1,900 USD).

Living expenses in Toronto and Vancouver are sky-high, and if you’re hoping Montreal offers a more affordable alternative, you’ll be disappointed—it’s just as costly. Factor in additional expenses for your family, and Canada quickly becomes an impractical place to invest in or build your future. It is difficult to see the benefits of living there.

The rapid growth of Canada’s immigrant population has also become another socio-economic issue. Canada does not have a dynamic market economy that can absorb all immigrants without lowering the standard of living of other citizens. Therefore, economic difficulties have not only caused immigrants to become targets but also a threat to social peace.

Elections In Canada

Do you recall the political debate that flared up after Trudeau’s resignation, revealing Canada’s polarized politics? Canadian politics was left in confusion about which way to turn after U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at annexing Canada as the 51st state.

What an absolutely painful circus to watch unfold. After being thoroughly humiliated by Trump and losing whatever political capital he had left, Trudeau stepped down, hoping to give the Liberals one last shot at survival in the next election.

The Liberals wasted no time in installing Mark Carney, a globalist even more elitist than Trudeau, as Prime Minister. As a career technocrat, Carney’s credentials read like a who’s who of globalist power centres—Goldman Sachs, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, and the World Economic Forum.

When I saw that the so-called conservative Pierre Poilievre was positioned to run against Carney in the snap elections on April 28, 2025, it became obvious that the entire contest was pure theatre. Poilievre played his part well, talking tough, staying on script, and never crossing the lines he wasn’t supposed to. In an election where the outcome was never in doubt, Carney picked up where Trudeau left off.

What’s truly hilarious is that Canadians rallied behind Carney, thinking he was the tough guy who could stand up to Trump, as if a globalist banker could salvage national pride. They saw him as the unifier for the challenges ahead, not realizing he was just the next polished face of the same worn-out agenda. They did not hesitate to choose a copy of the same man as their hope, as if they had forgotten why they had withdrawn their support for Trudeau.

Watching these painful realities from a distance, I feel compelled to speak the truth. Liberals and conservatives are inflicting irreparable wounds on social cohesion without knowing that the system itself is rigged. Political scandals, unfulfilled campaign promises, and a lack of transparency continue to fuel growing skepticism toward Canadian leaders. My only hope is that more people begin to realize there are far better places to live and truly thrive outside of Canada.

Canada is no longer worth the debate. Broken systems, high taxes, lost freedoms, there’s nothing left to fix. The smart ones aren’t waiting. They’re departing.

Conclusion

It’s time to stop calculating the pros and cons of living in Canada. There are no advantages at all. Canada is a country stuck under high taxes, failing public services, ideological impositions, and an increasingly authoritarian government. Buying a house has become a dream, healthcare a lottery, and freedom of expression a luxury.

Even worse, despite all these problems, there is no will to fix Canada’s future. Canada has become divided by ideological wars between ever-growing state control and failed economic policies. Simply put, the best place to live in Canada doesn’t exist.

The answer for those looking to secure their future is to look beyond Canada. If you don’t want to be penalized for your success, crushed by high taxes, and deprived of your fundamental rights, now is the time to explore alternative countries that genuinely value freedom and opportunity.

*  *  *

The truth is, Canada’s decline is just one piece of a much bigger global pattern. The warning signs are everywhere: collapsing economies, overreaching governments, and shrinking personal freedoms. You don’t have to wait until it’s too late—or stay trapped in a system that’s stacked against you. There’s a better way forward, and the time to act is now. That’s why we’re urging you to join Doug Casey’s urgent online video event, where he’ll reveal his proven strategy to survive and thrive during the coming collapse. You’ll learn exactly how to secure a real Plan B with second passports, offshore banking, and the kind of freedom insurance that governments can’t take away from you. Reserve your spot here before it’s too late.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/31/2025 - 23:20

Pages