Individual Economists

"Polar Vortex" Is Upon Us: Arctic Outbreaks To Round Out December

Zero Hedge -

"Polar Vortex" Is Upon Us: Arctic Outbreaks To Round Out December

It's almost that time of year when a polar vortex split occurs, displacing cold Arctic air from the Earth's North Pole into Canada and spilling into the Lower 48. 

Data from Bloomberg shows that mentions of "polar vortex" in corporate media typically begin to surge in late December or the first half of January, signaling that the countdown has begun. 

On Wednesday, private weather forecaster BAMWX pushed out new weather models on X, showing confidence is growing for a polar vortex split to occur for the Lower 48. 

"The stage is set for Arctic outbreaks to round out December and kick start the new year!" BAMWX wrote on X. 

BAMWX said, "More favorable trends for stronger cold fronts in week 2. I don't see any signs of a consistent torch in the eastern US. Ensembles cannot resolve the +TNH & +PNA pattern right now making them consistently too warm late week 2." 

Michael Clark, chief meteorologist for BAMWX, was confident about the incoming polar vortex.

Clark also sees a more active precipitation pattern for the eastern half of the US. 

"The persistence in the PNA and the TPV (500mb tropospheric polar vortex location is the reason we believe the storms can easily pull down the Arctic air behind them," BAMWX said. 

The eastern half of the US appears to be setting up for a cold Christmas

And possibly a white one...

"Both GFS and ECMWF AI model data hinting at a bigger storm threat ~22nd of Dec," BAMWX wrote in a forecast.

Here's more from Clark in a video titled "Stage set for ARCTIC OUTBREAKS to start 2025" ... 

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 18:50

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 23.5% YoY

Calculated Risk -

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 26.2% YoY, but still down 21.5% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 
 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 23.5% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Dec. 7, 2024
Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 23.5% above year-ago levels

For the 57th consecutive week, the number of homes for sale has increased compared with the same time last year. However, this week’s growth was the slowest since March 2024. As the mortgage rates remain close to 7%, the combination of sluggish listing activity and muted buyer demand has led to a slowdown in inventory growth. The pace of growth suggests a more cautious environment where sellers are holding back, and buyers are taking their time—creating a more balanced but tentative housing landscape.

New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—increased 16.5% post-Thanksgiving, and adjusted to 2.6% after accounting for holiday timing

The number of newly listed homes has returned to its pre-Thanksgiving level, resulting in a large year-over-year growth as Thanksgiving falls later in 2024 compared with 2023. After adjusting for the holiday timing factor, the year-over-year increase in new listings is 2.6%.
Realtor YoY Active ListingsHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 57th consecutive week.  
However, inventory is still historically low.
New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

Russia Dodged A Bullet By Wisely Choosing Not To Ally With The Now-Defeated Resistance Axis

Zero Hedge -

Russia Dodged A Bullet By Wisely Choosing Not To Ally With The Now-Defeated Resistance Axis

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

Putin made the right choice, which was always driven by his rational calculation of what was in Russia’s objective interests as a state, not due to “Zionist influence” like some in the Alt-Media Community now ridiculously claim to defame him after being mad that he didn’t lift a finger to save the Resistance.

The Iranian-led Resistance Axis has been defeated by Israel. Hamas’ terrorist attack on 7 October 2023 prompted Israel’s collective punishment of the Palestinians in Gaza, which set into motion a series of conflicts that expanded to Lebanon and Syria. Israel has also bombed Yemen and Iran. Hamas’ and Hezbollah’s leaderships were destroyed, leading to a ceasefire in Lebanon, while the Assad government was just overthrown by a Turkish-backed terrorist blitz that severed Iran’s military logistics to Hezbollah.

These outcomes were already surprising enough for those who believed the late Nasrallah’s claim that “Israel is weaker than a spider web”, but many were shocked that they occurred without Russia lifting a finger to save the Resistance, with whom they thought that it had allied against Israel long ago. That second-mentioned false notion will go down in infamy as one of the most successful psy-ops ever conducted against the Alt-Media Community (AMC), and ironically enough, by its own top influencers.

It was explained in early October “Why False Perceptions About Russian Policy Towards Israel Continue To Proliferate”, which readers should review for more detail, but which can be summarized as top AMC influencers telling their audience what they thought they wanted to hear for self-interested reasons. These include generating clout, pushing their ideology, and/or soliciting donations from well-intentioned but naïve members of their audience depending on the personality involved.

The preceding analysis also lists five related ones about Russian policy towards Israel since the start of the West Asian Wars, including this one “Clarifying Lavrov’s Comparison Of The Latest Israeli-Hamas War To Russia’s Special Operation”, which itself links to several dozen others. All of them also reference this May 2018 report about “President Putin On Israel: Quotes From The Kremlin Website (2000-2018)”. All of these materials rely on official and authoritative Russian sources to arrive at their conclusions.

They prove that Putin is a proud lifelong philo-Semite who never shared the Resistance’s unifying anti-Zionist ideology, instead always expressing very deep respect for Jews and the State of Israel. Accordingly, as the final decisionmaker on Russian foreign policy, he tasked his diplomats with balancing between Israel and the Resistance. To that end, Russia never took either’s side and always remained neutral in their disputes, including the West Asian Wars.

The most that he ever personally did was condemn Israel’s collective punishment of the Palestinians, but always in the same breath as condemning Hamas’ infamous terrorist attack on 7 October 2023. As for Russia, the most that it ever did was repeat the same rhetoric and occasionally condemn Israel’s strikes against the IRGC and Hezbollah in Syria, which Russia never interfered with. Not once did it try to deter or intercept them, retaliate afterwards, or give Syria the capabilities and authorization to do so either.

This was due to the deconfliction mechanism that Putin and Bibi agreed to in late September 2015 shortly before the Syrian operation. It was never confirmed for obvious diplomatic reasons, but these actions (or rather lack thereof) suggested that Putin believed that Iran’s anti-Israeli activities Syria posed a legitimate threat to Israel. For that reason, Russia always stood aside whenever Israel bombed Iran there, but Russia still sometimes complained due to Israel’s attacks formally violating international law.

It’s an objectively existing and easily verifiable fact that Russia’s opposition to Israel’s regional activities, be they in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, or Iran, always remained strictly confined to the political realm of official statements. Not once did Russia ever threaten to unilaterally sanction Israel, let alone even remotely hint at military action against it as punishment. Russia won’t even symbolically designate Israel as an “unfriendly state”, though that’s because it doesn’t abide by US sanctions and won’t arm Ukraine.

Therein lies another fact that most in the AMC were either unaware of or in denial about and it’s that Israel isn’t the US’ puppet otherwise it would have already done those two things long ago. It’s beyond the scope of the present piece to explain this, as well as why the Biden Administration has tried to destabilize and overthrow Bibi, but this analysis here dives into the details and cites related articles. The point is that Russian-Israeli ties remain cordial and these two are far from the foes that some thought.

It therefore never made sense to imagine that Putin, who considers himself to be the consummate pragmatist, would burn the bridge that he personally invested nearly a quarter-century of his time building with Bibi between their two nations. After all, Putin boasted in 2019 that “Russians and Israelis have ties of family and friendship. This is a true common family; I can say this without exaggeration. Almost 2 million Russian speakers live in Israel. We consider Israel a Russian-speaking country.”

He was speaking before the Keren Heyesod Foundation, one of the world’s oldest Zionist lobbying organizations, during its annual conference in Moscow that year. Whenever members of the AMC were confronted with these “politically inconvenient” facts from official and authoritative sources such as the Kremlin’s own website, they spun a “5D chess master plan” conspiracy theory alleging that he was just “psyching out the Zionists”. Top influencers also aggressively “canceled” anyone who brought this up.

The end result was that these false perceptions of Russian-Israeli relations as well as Putin’s own views towards this subject continued to proliferate unchallenged through the AMC, thus leading to the impression that they were secretly allied with Iran due to their allegedly shared anti-Zionist ideals. This notion became a matter of dogma for many in the AMC and correspondingly turned into an axiom of International Relations for them. Anyone who claimed otherwise was smeared as a “Zionist”.

It's now known after Russia didn’t lift a finger to save the Resistance that they were never actually allies. Some of those that still can’t accept that they’ve been lied to by trusted AMC influencers who duped them for self-interested reasons (clout, ideology, and/or soliciting donations) now speculate that Russia “betrayed” the Resistance and “sold out to the Zionists” even though Russia was never on either’s side. If they don’t soon shake off their cognitive dissonance, they’ll detach themselves further from reality.

In retrospect, Russia dodged a bullet by wisely choosing not to ally with the now-defeated Resistance Axis since it would have needlessly ruined its relations with Israel, the undisputable victor of the West Asian Wars.

Putin made the right choice, which was always driven by his rational calculation of what was in Russia’s objective interests as a state, not due to “Zionist influence” like some in the AMC now ridiculously claim to defame him after being mad that he didn’t lift a finger to save the Resistance.

The takeaways from this are several: 1) Putin and his representatives don’t play “5D chess”, they always say what they truly mean; 2) Russia isn’t anti-Israel nor anti-Zionist, but it also isn’t anti-Iran nor anti-Resistance either; 3) the AMC is full of charlatans who, for self-interested reasons, tell their audience whatever they think they want to hear; 4) their audience should thus hold them to account for lying about Russian-Israeli and Russian-Resistance relations; 5) and the AMC requires urgent reform.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 17:00

South Korean Defense Chief Sent Drones To Pyongyang To Spark Retaliation, Justify Martial Law: Lawmakers

Zero Hedge -

South Korean Defense Chief Sent Drones To Pyongyang To Spark Retaliation, Justify Martial Law: Lawmakers

Former South Korean former defense chief Kim Yong-hyun ordered a swarm of drones to North Korea's capital with hopes of provoking an attack that could be used to justify a declaration of martial law by President Yoon Suk Yeol, South Korean legislators have alleged. Meanwhile, ahead of an expected weekend impeachment vote, Yoon used an address to the nation to promise that he would fight "until the very last minute" against being removed from power.  

Kim was arrested on Tuesday for his alleged role in aiding Yoon's attempt to impose military rule, suspend civil liberties and remove checks and balances -- and attempted suicide shortly after midnight on Wednesday. Previous reports pointed to Kim's deployment of troops to prevent lawmakers from convening after Yoon's shocking Dec. 3 declaration of martial law. If true, the sensational new allegation from Park Beom-kye of the opposition Democratic Party suggests an entirely different layer of dangerous complicity.     

Former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun has been accused of sending drones to North Korea's capital to provoke a response that could be used to justify a martial law declaration

“The Defense Counterintelligence Command, where former commander Yeo In-hyung – a junior to Kim at the same high school – was posted, appears to have planned [the drone deployment]," said Park in remarks in the parliament on Monday, according to The Telegraph. Citing a "credible military source," he later told reporters that the "drone operation appears to have been part of a larger plan, potentially tied to preparations for the martial law decree.”

In October, the North Korean government said it had detected multiple South Korean drones that were sent to Pyongyang to shower the capital city with propaganda leaflets. North Korea published a photo of what appears to be a drone that had crashed into a group of trees. At that time and again this week, the South Korean government declined to confirm or deny the accusation. 

This October photo of a crashed drone was released by the North Korean government, which said it was sent from South Korea 

Park's suggestion that Kim and Yoon may have conspired to provoke a North Korean military response -- with an accompanying risk of the loss of South Korean lives -- adds an explosive new dimension to the country's ongoing political crisis that followed the declaration of martial law.  

In April, Yoon's People Power Party (PPP) was routed in elections that saw the Democratic Party take over the country's assembly by a significant margin. In the ensuing months, mounting tensions took various forms, including an impasse over the 2025 budget and Democrats' attempt to impeach top prosecutors.  On Dec. 3, Yoon stunned South Korea and the international community with a late-night declaration of martial law. In his announcement, Yoon railed against “shameless pro-North-Korean anti-state forces who are plundering the freedom and happiness of our citizens...I will eliminate anti-state forces as quickly as possible and normalize the country.”

Soldiers and police immediately surrounded the National Assembly, but 190 of the 300 members of parliament managed to unanimously vote to annul the martial law declaration. Yoon retracted it and apologized, but the repercussions have continued to unfold since then. Defense chief Kim resigned upon being charged, was taken into custody on Tuesday and attempted to kill himself hours later. The country's top two law enforcement officers have also been arrested, and police have made multiple attempts to search Yoon's office.  

Protesters at South Korea's National Assembly demand Yoon's resignation (Han Myung-Gu/EPA via Al-Jazeera)

An impeachment vote last weekend failed in the face of a boycott by the ruling People Power Party (PPP), but the Democratic Party has announced it will move for impeachment again on Saturday, and some PPP members are now voicing their support

On Thursday, Yoon returned to the kind of fiery rhetoric he used in his martial law announcement, calling the Democratic Party "a monster" composed of  "anti-state forces."

“I will fight to the end to prevent the forces and criminal groups that have been responsible for paralyzing the country’s government and disrupting the nation’s constitutional order from threatening the future of the Republic of Korea...The opposition is now doing a sword dance of chaos, claiming that the declaration of martial law constitutes to an act of rebellion. But was it really?”

Yoon portrayed his martial law move as a legitimate use of government authority which should be exempt from the investigations that have been directed at it. He also claimed soldiers and police were sent to the parliament to keep order, not to thwart legislators.  

According to Associated Press, opposition parties control 192 of the National Assembly's 300 seats. With impeachment requiring a two-thirds majority, that means pro-impeachment forces will need to win over eight members of Yoon's PPP. Significantly, PPP chairman Han Dong-hun has called for members to send Yoon packing. Yoon's fiery Thursday speech has helped stir discord in his party. When Han told a party meeeting that Yoon's remarks "a confession of rebellion," he received angry jeers from Yoon backers, who told him to be quiet.   

Polymarket speculators are convinced Yoon will leave office within the next few months. The "yes" contract on a departure before April 1 is going for 80¢. Bettors are less convinced that he'll be out by year-end, with the "yes" on that version priced at only 12¢.  

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 16:40

Chicago Mayor Proposes 11 Tax- And Fee-Hikes As Part Of 2025 Budget

Zero Hedge -

Chicago Mayor Proposes 11 Tax- And Fee-Hikes As Part Of 2025 Budget

By Dylan Sharkey of Illinois Policy

Chicago is on the verge of adding $233.9 million in new tax hikes as part of the city’s $17.3 billion budget for 2025, if aldermen pass Mayor Brandon Johnson’s proposals.

Johnson’s tax increases include hikes in property taxes, personal property leases, the city shopping bag tax and the tax on streaming services. Hikes are hitting vehicles with more speed cameras, parking taxes and rideshare fees.

These have already passed the City Council Finance Committee, meaning it could pass the full council by the end of the week. The bulk of the tax hikes will come from:

  • $68.5 million: Property tax hike, down from Johnson’s original $300 million ask which was met with a unanimous “no” vote by the city council.
  • $128.1 million: Hiking personal property lease tax, including on cloud computing, to 11% from 9%.
  • $12.9 million: Increasing the amusement tax on streaming and tickets to live events to 10.25% from 9%.
  • $11.4 million: Increase number of speed cameras in the city.
  • $5.1 million: Raising paper and plastic, single-use shopping bag tax by 3 cents to 10 cents total.
  • $7.9 million: Other fees and taxes, including on parking and rideshares.

Find your city council member and tell them Chicago taxes are already too high. The new budget is due by the end of the year, so they could vote on the hikes in a matter of days.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 16:20

Al Sharpton Pocketed $1M In Bonuses From Nonprofit Tied To Kamala Scandal

Zero Hedge -

Al Sharpton Pocketed $1M In Bonuses From Nonprofit Tied To Kamala Scandal

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

MSNBC host Rev. Al Sharpton is yet again facing new criticism amid a report that revealed he awarded himself nearly $1 million in bonuses through his tax-exempt nonprofit, the National Action Network (NAN). 

According to Fox News, Sharpton reported several compensation bonuses within his nonprofit that at times exceeded his base salary as evident in the non-profit’s tax filings. 

In 2016, he paid himself $437,355 for “bonus & incentive compensation,” far more than his annual salary of $250,000. This practice seemingly began in 2014 when he granted himself $64,000. 

In 2018, Sharpton received a bonus of $159,596, in addition to his $324,000 salary for that year. He also listed $563,352 in “other reportable compensation” that same year. 

In 2021, he awarded himself a $278,503 bonus on top of his $348,174 salary, which amounted to 80 percent of his base pay. Over just seven years, Sharpton pocketed $940,053 in so-called compensation and bonuses. 

It is not immediately clear whether such bonus practices are typical in other nonprofits. It is also unclear how often the IRS scrutinizes these generous bonuses. 

Sharpton did not immediately respond to requests for comments from Fox News. However, this is not the first time Sharpton’s financial affairs have come under scrutiny.

In November, Sharpton came under fire after his non-profit accepted a $500,000 donation from Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign ahead of a soft interview he conducted with her. 

These donations, which came in the form of two $250,000 donations, were made in September and October and only became public after Harris lost the 2024 election to President-elect Donald Trump. 

The Washington Free Beacon reported that the Harris donation to Sharpton’s non-profits blindsided MSNBC. “MSNBC was unaware of the donations made to the National Action Network,” a spokesperson told the Free Beacon. 

An unnamed current MSNBC employee rebuked Sharpton’s acceptance of the donations, calling the affairs “another level of nonsense” and straight up “weird.” 

“Harris could have given Al Sharpton an interview, and it would have gone the same way. But what are you paying for? … There’s no way that this can’t seem weird,” the employee added. “Everybody knows who Al Sharpton is … but this feels like a bridge too far. A big bridge too far … This is not landing well. This has a bit of a dirty feel to it … These things happen and they don’t bounce around MSNBC all that much. Like people just don’t care.” 

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 15:45

Canadian Dollar Tumbles After Turdeau (sic) Reportedly Weighs Export Tax On Uranium, Oil

Zero Hedge -

Canadian Dollar Tumbles After Turdeau (sic) Reportedly Weighs Export Tax On Uranium, Oil

In a cute show of strength, Canada has flexed its tiny muscles for a second day in a row and in what it believes is an attempt to intimidate the Trump admin, has threatened to cut off its biggest customer from the one thing that keeps Canada's economy running (hint: it's not illegal aliens or illicit Chinese real estate funs): exports.

According to Bloomberg, Canada is examining the use of export taxes on major commodities it exports to its largest trading partner - the United States - including uranium, oil and potash, to retaliate if incoming president Trump carries out his threat to impose broad tariffs.

Today's threat comes one day after Ontario premier Doug Ford (brother to infamous, and now deceased, Toronto mayor Rob Ford) also flexed what little muscles he has under that copious shell, and suggested that the province would cut off electricity exports to the US over Trump’s tariff threat (which amounts to some 14 million MWh, or enough to power to large data centers).

Citing officials familiar with the discussions inside Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government, Bloomberg reports that export levies would be a last resort for Canada. Retaliatory tariffs against US-made goods, and export controls on certain Canadian products, would be more likely to come first.

But commodity export taxes, which would drive up costs for US consumers, farmers and businesses, would be a real option if Trump decides to start a full-scale trade war, said the Bloomberg sources.

The government of Turdeau, who recently hobnobbed with Trump at Mar-A-Lago exuding a self-indulgent smarminess found only among fanatical supporters of Fidel Castro, may also propose giving itself expanded powers over export controls as part of a scheduled update on the country’s fiscal and economic situation to be released on Monday. But since Turdeau's government is already socialist, will anyone know the difference.

Even though the US is essentially self-sufficient, Canada remains the largest external supplier of oil to the US as some refineries depend on buying cheaper Canadian heavy crude and have few alternatives to it (all that would be required to make Canadian oil imports redundant, is a few billion in refinery capex spending). As a result, the US Midwest may be hit by higher costs. Fuel makers in the region rely on Canada for almost half of the crude they turn into gasoline and diesel. Of course, if Canada doesn't export its oil, its economy which is far less diversified, will be hit far harder if it were to voluntarily exclude its largest trading partner.

Canadian uranium is also the biggest foreign source of fuel for US nuclear power plants, and potash from the country’s western provinces is a huge source of fertilizer for American farms. Meanwhile, the US Department of Defense has prudently been investing in Canadian projects to secure sources of cobalt and graphite and reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains.

For those reasons, analysts have said they expect Trump will exempt commodities from his threat to place 25% levies on goods from Mexico and Canada, and focus instead on using tariffs against their manufacturing industries. In Canada’s case, that includes the auto manufacturing, aerospace and aluminum sectors, which are centered in Ontario and Quebec, where about 60% of Canadians live.

It's unclear if that would change things: Turdeau’s government (sic) would have no choice but to respond if Trump simply exempted energy while hitting all other Canadian products, said Bloomberg sources, adding that’s a scenario that could prompt the use of export taxes by Canada.

But for the prime minister, going down this path would cause serious political divisions within Canada. Oil, uranium and potash production are concentrated in the western provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Those provinces are the strongest voter base for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, and their provincial governments are staunch right-wing opponents of Trudeau.

In short, while Turdeau may retaliate in a Trump trade war, such an action will likely be his last.

“It’s a terrible idea,” Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said when asked about the possible use of export taxes.

“I don’t support tariffs on Canadian goods and I don’t support tariffs on US goods because all it does is make life more expensive,” Smith said. “Instead, we’re taking a diplomatic approach and we’re meeting with our allies in the US.”

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe said export taxes “are the wrong approach and Saskatchewan will vehemently oppose the federal government imposing export taxes on our potash, uranium or oil.”

The market, however, does not have patience to see how all this plays out, and sent the loonie to a two year low, with the USDCAD surging to 1.420, the highest since the April 2020 depths of the covid crash.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 15:23

Understanding The Anger Over Healthcare In One Picture

Zero Hedge -

Understanding The Anger Over Healthcare In One Picture

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Healthcare costs have soared. Obamacare failed to live up to its promises. And my lead image dramatically understates the problems with costs...

Data from the BLS, chart by Mish

Changes Since 1983
  • CPI: 208 percent
  • Medical Care Services: 505 percent
  • Hospital Services: 975 percent
  • Medical Care Commodities: 308 Percent
Changes Since Obamacare Started
  • CPI: 41.28 percent
  • Medical Care Services: 77.98 percent
  • Hospital Services: 77.98 percent
  • Medical Care Commodities: 29.94 percent
Understanding BLS Calculations

The numbers look bad but they are much worse than they look because of the way the BLS calculates the CPI.

On all CPI calculations, the BLS only counts costs directly paid by consumers.

To the extent corporations and Medicare are obscuring more of the costs, the CPI numbers are understated.

Health Insurance Coverage 2023
  • Employment-based insurance: 54.5% of the population
  • Medicare and Medicaid: 18.8% of the population
  • Direct-purchase coverage: 9.9% of the population
  • TRICARE (Active Military Service): 2.4% of the population
  • VA and CHAMPVA coverage: 1.0% of the population 

The above is an AI-generated response. It totals 86.6 percent.

Census. Gov says that in 2022, 92.1 percent of people, or 304.0 million, had health insurance at some point in the year.

Those in various Medicare plans have seen smaller increases than those buying insurance for themselves.

And the cost of direct pay is outrageous. Large corporations can get better deals than smaller ones.

The BLS averages this all in to arrive at the numbers posted in the chart. Heaven help anyone paying for their own insurance who gets cancer or other serious needs.

Rolling the Dice

Obamacare penalizes young and healthy for the benefit of those older and with conditions.

Young adults not working for a company that provides health care benefits frequently opt out. No one can blame them.

ObamaCare Con

The Wall Street Journal discusses the ObamaCare Con

Progressives are at last acknowledging that ObamaCare is a failure. They aren’t doing so explicitly, of course, but their social-media screeds against insurers, triggered by last week’s murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, suggest as much. “We’ve gotten to a point where healthcare is so inaccessible and unaffordable, people are justified in their frustrations,” CBS News medical contributor Céline Gounder said during a Friday segment on the roasting of health insurers.

Remember Barack Obama’s promise that if you like your health plan and doctor, you could keep them? Sorry. How about his claim that people with pre-existing conditions would be protected? Also not true. The biggest howler, however, was that healthcare would become more affordable.

Grant Democrats this: The law has advanced their political goal of expanding government control over insurers, in return for lavishing Americans with subsidies to buy overpriced, lousy products. (One might observe that Democrats are driving a similar Faustian bargain to induce automakers to produce more electric vehicles.)

One problem is that simply having insurance doesn’t change people’s behavior. It does, however, cause them to use more care. This is a particular problem in Medicaid, since beneficiaries often rush to the emergency room for nonemergencies because they don’t have deductibles or co-pays.

Another problem: The nearly 100 million Americans on Medicaid or tightly regulated and generously subsidized exchange plans struggle to find doctors to treat them. Physician access for Medicaid patients has long been limited owing to the program’s low reimbursement rates.

It has gotten worse since ObamaCare expanded eligibility, as states have tried to hold down Medicaid costs by reducing reimbursements. A 2019 study found that patients were only half as likely to get an appointment with a doctor compared with privately insured patients before the law passed. Post-ObamaCare, they were less than one-third as likely. Medicaid is insurance in name only.

Patients with exchange plans hardly fare better. Affordable Care Act plan networks include on average only 40% of local physicians and 21% of those employed by hospitals. Patients must pay significantly more out of pocket to see out-of-network doctors. If you find a doctor in network, there’s no guarantee he’ll continue to be. Insurers are narrowing coverage to keep down costs.

They are also hiking deductibles, which this year averaged $5,241 for a typical plan. That’s up from $2,425 in 2014. Although subsidies reduce how much people with ObamaCare plans pay toward their premiums, they are stuck paying out of pocket until they hit their deductible.

Most healthy young people never do. That means their insurance is worthless except in the event of a catastrophic emergency, which was the gist of recent rants against insurers. Perhaps they should take up their grievances with Mr. Obama, since his law’s mandates and regulations are to blame.

ObamaCare requires plans to cover myriad government-determined “essential benefits” regardless of whether people need them. It also prohibits insurers from charging higher premiums based on a patient’s health-risk factors and limits their ability to do so for older people. The young and healthy are thus required to subsidize their elders, while taxpayers are required to subsidize everyone on the exchanges.

The WSJ noted “states have tried to hold down Medicaid costs by reducing reimbursements.”

Everyone else pays more because if it. Wait times and the struggle to find a doctor who takes Medicaid are not factored into the CPI at all.

‘This Is A Warning’: Warren, Sanders Address Sympathy For UnitedHealthcare CEO Killing

The Huffington Post reports ‘This Is A Warning’: Warren, Sanders Address Sympathy For UnitedHealthcare CEO Killing

Two of the biggest critics of the U.S. health care system condemned the assassination of UnitedHealthcare’s CEO Brian Thompson while calling out “vile” insurance company practices aimed at maximizing profits.

“The visceral response from people across this country who feel cheated, ripped off, and threatened by the vile practices of their insurance companies should be a warning to everyone in the health care system,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) told HuffPost in an interview on Tuesday when asked about the cold response to Thompson’s death, which included celebratory posts on social media.

“Violence is never the answer, but people can be pushed only so far,” Warren added. “This is a warning that if you push people hard enough, they lose faith in the ability of their government to make change, lose faith in the ability of the people who are providing the health care to make change, and start to take matters into their own hands in ways that will ultimately be a threat to everyone.”

After drawing some criticism for her remarks, Warren clarified her comments in a statement provided to HuffPost on Wednesday.

“Violence is never the answer. Period,” the senator said. “I should have been much clearer that there is never a justification for murder.”

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) called Thompson’s killing “outrageous” and “unacceptable” before similarly criticizing insurance company practices.

“I think what the outpouring of anger at the health care industry tells us is that millions of people understand that health care is a human right and that you cannot have people in the insurance industry rejecting needed health care for people while they make billions of dollars in profit,” Sanders said.

Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) also criticized “vile” social media posts for celebrating an “assh*le that’s going to die in prison.”

“If you gun someone down that you don’t happen to agree with their views or the business that they’re in, hey, you know, I’m next, they’re next,” he added. “And people want to celebrate it. It’s twisted.”

It’s Twisted

Government meddling is one of the reasons healthcare is so expensive.

Obamacare failed across the board. And it did so by creating big pools of those who overpay and underpay.

Let’s not mince words. People who smoke ought to pay more for healthcare because they are a higher risk. Those who are grossly overweight ought to pay more as well.

Medicaid encourages emergency visits by paying primary care doctors so little that the doctors refuse new patients.

To avoid lawsuits, doctors perform more tests than necessary. Fraud is rampant. Paperwork is excessive.

“Medicare for All” would enhance problems in all of the above.

No Skin in the Game

Customers who have already reached their max out of pocket deductibles have no skin in the game. And that’s a huge problem.

According to Medicare.Gov “No Medicare drug plan may have a deductible more than $505 in 2023. Some Medicare drug plans don’t have a deductible. In some plans that do have a deductible, drugs on some tiers are covered before the deductible.

Once deductibles are reached, sometimes in one month, consumers have no incentive to shop around.

Other customers, unaware of cost differentials, fill prescriptions on the basis of convenience, that being the nearest pharmacy.

Denver Health at “Critical Point” as 8,000 Migrants Make 20,000 Emergency Visits

January 24, 2024: Denver Health at “Critical Point” as 8,000 Migrants Make 20,000 Emergency Visits

The Denver hospital system is turning away local residents because it is flooded with migrant visits.

Medicaid Expansion Was Supposed to Pay for Itself, Instead Hospitals Are Closing

March 9, 2024: Medicaid Expansion Was Supposed to Pay for Itself, Instead Hospitals Are Closing

10 states did not fall for the Medicaid expansion trap under Obamacare. The rest are suffering. Private payers (you, one way or another) make up the loss.

Medicaid does not pay enough to cover hospitals’ costs, meaning hospitals need to make up for the shortfall by charging private payers more.

This was one of the easiest “I Told You So” advance predictions in history.

Best of all, we have a decade of data to prove it thanks to ten states that resisted the trap.

Hospitals Turn to Pay In Advance, In Full

May 9, 2024: Hospitals Turn to Pay In Advance, In Full

If you are in the hospital emergency room, and that’s where most people without insurance go, then you get treated. Otherwise, many hospitals are turning to pay in advance for services.

Nonpayment a Huge Problem

It’s interesting to note that hospitals want payment in advance for births. Most illegals just walk in and never pay for anything.

Nonpayment is one of the reasons costs are soaring for everyone who does pay.

Obama claimed Medicaid expansion would pay for itself.

Whenever you hear that claim please run. Free government handouts are never free and most often backfire completely.

As long as we are going to have Medicare, and no politician will ever get rid of it, It would behoove Medicare and insurers to require the cheapest cost alternative on all drugs. That would force competition and eliminate fraudulent collusion.

US consumers are subsidizing the rest of the world. I would put an end to that by allowing drug imports.

The Right to Die

It’s an uncomfortable topic, where demagoguery about “death squads” abounds, but we need to have a talk about the right to die and how much money we spend prolonging a terminal patient’s life, in massive pain, for a few weeks or months.

I have made my wishes known. I do not want to be kept alive by heroic means if the quality of my life is expected to be grim. That’s a personal decision.

At the national level, we must face this very uncomfortable question: Should we spend hundreds of thousands of dollars keeping someone alive whose life expectancy is 3 months? 6 months? a year?

I say no to all for those without insurance, and no for me personally, regardless.

Also, hospitals should be free to turn away those without insurance. We need tort reform to cut down legal expenses.

When consumers have no skin in the game or not enough skin in the game, no one other than the insurers are interested in reducing costs.

That is the fundamental problem with US healthcare. Senators Warren and Sanders proposals would make everything worse.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 15:05

Yields Spike To Session High After Ugly, Tailing 30Y Auction

Zero Hedge -

Yields Spike To Session High After Ugly, Tailing 30Y Auction

After a solid 3Y auction on Tuesday and a stellar 10Y yesterday, moments ago the Treasury concluded the week's coupon issuance with a decidedly soggy 30Y auction, one which pushed yields to session highs.

Today's sale was a $22BN reopening of 30Y paper in the form of 29Y-11M cusip UE6, which priced at a high yield of 4.535%, down modestly from 4.608% last month but stopping through the When Issued 4.523% by 1.2bps, the first tail since September and follows two solid stop throughs.

The Bid to Cover was also disappointed: unlike yesterday's blowout 10Y high, today's BTC was just 2.39x, down from 2.64x and the lowest since September; it was also below the six auction average of 2.43x.

The internals were soggy at best: Indirects were awarded 66.5%, up from 62.7% but below the recent average of 67.7%. And with Directs taking down 19.1%, down from 27.1% in November, Dealers were left holding 14.4%, the highest since September.

Overall, this was a C-rated auction at best, and the market reacted accordingly, sending 10Y yields up 2bps from 4.29% at auction time to 4.31%, and since drifting another basis point to session highs above 4.32%.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 14:02

Ryan Routh's Lawyer Indicates Possible Insanity Defense In Trump Assassination Attempt Case

Zero Hedge -

Ryan Routh's Lawyer Indicates Possible Insanity Defense In Trump Assassination Attempt Case

Authored by Jacob Burg and Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

FORT PIERCE, Fla.—An attorney for Ryan Routh, the man suspected of attempting to assassinate then-presidential candidate Donald Trump earlier this year, indicated in court on Dec. 11 that he was showing signs of mental illness.

Ryan Wesley Routh participates in a rally in central Kyiv, Ukraine, on April 30, 2022. Efrem Lukatsky/ AP Photo

During a status conference with Judge Aileen Cannon, defense attorney Kristy Militello said that witnesses had described Routh as hallucinating and delusional. Militello said it could take months to interview experts to evaluate Routh’s mental health.

Cannon seemed skeptical and concerned that the court needed a more concrete or specific timeline for getting expert input. The defense also said it sought access to Routh’s childhood school records in an apparent attempt to capture his mental health history.

Assistant U.S. Attorney John Shipley Jr. criticized the idea that the defense would need to go through decades-old school records.

Insanity is at the moment of the crime,” Shipley said, emphasizing Routh’s ability to distinguish between right and wrong at the time of the criminal offense.

Pretrial considerations of Routh’s mental fitness could add to potential delays in the case, which Cannon scheduled for a trial in February. Earlier this week, the defense expressed concern about the breadth of material in pretrial discovery and requested that Cannon delay the trial until at least December 2025.

The prosecution said it was open to delay but that a delay that long was unwarranted.

In a filing on Dec. 10, Shipley told Cannon that while discovery was “indeed substantial,” much of the discovery involved content from Routh’s personal devices. Of the 18 cellphones the defense highlighted in their motion to delay, 17 belonged to the defendant, Shipley said.

“And while defense counsel may not be personally familiar with these devices, the lion’s share of their contents likely has little relevance to any serious defense,” his filing read.

During the Dec. 11 status conference, Militello, the defense attorney, said Routh may have forgotten some of the contents, which could also include information the defense attorneys were unaware of.

During the hearing, the prosecution expressed concern about Routh potentially tainting the jury pool with public statements defending himself. In both Shipley’s file and at the hearing, the prosecution referenced a recorded phone call Routh made from jail.

“In a recorded October 15, 2024 call from FDC-Miami, for example, Routh told a family member that he seeks publicity to aid his case at trial and to put out the word to jurors that he is, in his view, an honorable person,” Shipley’s filing read.

Cannon asked Shipley on Dec. 11 whether he could provide the recording for the court, and Shipley said he could. After the hearing, the court docket showed a filing in which the U.S. attorney’s office notified the court of its filing of a DVD with the recording to the court’s clerk.

“With any delay comes the increased risk that Routh, through his deliberate pre-trial publicity campaign, will impermissibly influence the jury poll, which at minimum will make it harder for this Court to seat an impartial jury,” Shipley said in his filing on Dec. 10.

He suggested during the status conference that the trial, with jury selection, could take longer than two weeks.

So far, the discovery has included electronic data downloaded from 18 phones, expert analyses, electronic data from multiple tablets and laptops, video surveillance, financial records, about 3,000 photographs, travel records, and other items.

Reading thousands of pages of materials, watching untold hours of video, and analyzing tens of thousands of digital pages of information will require many months,” the defense’s filing read.

The prosecution said it was trying to line up multiple experts, including a ballistics expert who could speak to the range available to Routh.

The dispute over trial delay follows a separate pretrial dispute over Cannon’s impartiality. Routh moved for Cannon to recuse herself after she was randomly assigned to his case in September.

Cannon has overseen two cases involving Trump, including his classified documents case, which she dismissed in July over the legality of special counsel Jack Smith’s appointment.

Cannon denied Routh’s recusal motion, stating on Oct. 29, “I have never spoken to or met former President Trump except in connection with his required presence at an official judicial proceeding, through counsel.”

Routh, 58, has been charged with attempted assassination, along with other counts such as assaulting a Secret Service agent.

He faces potential life imprisonment, the Department of Justice said in a statement.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 13:40

KOSPI Rises After South Korea's Opposition Files Second Impeachment Motion Against President

Zero Hedge -

KOSPI Rises After South Korea's Opposition Files Second Impeachment Motion Against President

South Korea's main opposition Democratic Party (DP) filed a second impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk Yeol on Thursday, with a vote scheduled for Saturday. 

DP spokeswoman Gang Yu-jeong said, "We have decided to reintroduce the impeachment motion today. It will be reported to the National Assembly on the 12th, and the vote will take place at 5 p.m. on Saturday."

Bloomberg reports that the odds of this impeachment motion passing are much higher than before, as ruling party, People Power Party, members are expected to support it.

"I strongly urge members of the ruling People Power Party to avoid being on the wrong side of history and to join the vote for passing the impeachment," DP lawmaker Kim Yong-min told reporters. 

Bloomberg noted, "The opposition needs to secure 200 votes in parliament to pass the motion. An attempt to impeach Yoon last Saturday failed to reach that threshold after his party boycotted the vote," adding, "The opposition requires at least eight ruling party votes to pass the motion. So far, seven members have hinted that they would support moves to impeach Yoon." 

Also on Thursday, PPP, which initially refused to back last week's impeachment while hoping Yoon would resign, shifted its stance after making no progress in convincing the president to step aside.

"We tried to find a better way than impeachment, but that other way is invalid," PPP leader Dong-hoon said, adding, "Suspending the president from his duties through impeachment is the only way for now, to defend democracy and the republic."

Yoon has been banned from traveling overseas and faces mounting calls to step down after he declared emergency martial law on Dec. 3, accusing the opposition party of conducting "anti-state activities." This marked the largest flare-up in political turmoil in South Korea since full-scale martial law was declared in the spring of 1980.

Goldman's Goohoon Kwon and Andrew Tilton provided clients on Monday with several transition scenarios for Yoon: 

In markets, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) moved higher by about 1.6% on the second round of impeachment news after sliding last week.    

"Some market watchers have been saying that his ouster will ease political uncertainty and help stabilize sentiment," Bloomberg said. 

Graham Ambrose, managing director of Goldman Sachs' equity franchise sales team in London, told clients last week that there could be "buying opportunities in Seoul in coming days."

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 13:20

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

A brief excerpt:
During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined.
...
Months of SupplyHere is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1 (sometimes called the Flow of Funds report) released today. In the mid ‘00s, there was a large increase in mortgage debt associated with the housing bubble.

In Q3 2024, mortgage debt increased $105 billion, up from $99 billion in Q2, and down from the cycle peak of $467 billion in Q2 2021. Note the almost 7 years of declining mortgage debt as distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) wiped out a significant amount of debt.

However, some of this debt is being used to increase the housing stock (purchase new homes), so this isn’t all Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW).

Trump Invites China's Xi To Attend Inauguration In 'Signal To The Planet'

Zero Hedge -

Trump Invites China's Xi To Attend Inauguration In 'Signal To The Planet'

In a huge and unprecedented overture, President-elect Donald Trump has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration on January 20, a move which some have already called a 'signal to the planet'. A Chinese president attending a US presidential inauguration would be a first in history.

Transition spokesperson Karoline Leavitt confirmed to CBS News on Thursday that Trump invited Xi and that it's an example of Trump "creating an open dialogue with  leaders of countries that are not just our allies but our adversaries and our competitors too."

Via EFE

There are plans to also invite other foreign leaders and dignitaries, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. The Hungarian leader's office says he is "still considering" whether to attend.

"World leaders are lining up to meet with President Trump because they know he will soon return to power and restore peace through American strength around the globe," Leavitt further said.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has been among the first Republican pundits and strategists to weigh in on the global "signal." It's as yet not clear what Xi's answer will be.

"Look, I think Trump believes in constant offense, constant momentum, keeping things going forward," Gingrich told Fox. "I think he gets up every day and tries to figure out, you know, ‘Let’s go to McDonald’s or let’s go to the garbage truck,’ whatever it takes but he wants to be on offense," he continued.

"I suspect he woke up, looked around and thought, ‘Yeah, I think my good friend Xi Jinping, we haven’t been together in a long time, why don’t I…?’"

And below is Bloomberg's reaction:

Donald Trump invited Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration, CBS reported. Xi’s attendance would be unprecedented and may signal an effort by Trump to court him amidst threats of fresh tariffs against China. 

And a note from Goldman:

Xi invited to the inauguration… a bit of an olive branch and maybe enough to help some support to China related sentiment overnight. "Chinese shares related to consumption surged Thursday amid expectations for more concrete measures from a key economic policy meeting to boost domestic demand." (BBG) Still awaiting clarity from CEWC.

This does seem to be Trump saying 'we don't have to be enemies' and 'we could choose diplomacy and avoid conflict' - a track he appears also ready to take with Russia, in order to end the war in Ukraine.

But he's of course also threatened to impose new tariffs on China, a threat that's extended to Canada and Mexico as well, on his first day in office. In China's case the tariff will be 10% on all goods, on top of existing tariffs. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 12:40

Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $4.8 Trillion in Q3

Calculated Risk -

The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States.
The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $168.8 trillion during the third quarter of 2024. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $3.8 trillion and the value of real estate decreased $0.2 trillion..
...
Household debt increased 3 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter of 2024. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 2.5 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 3.1 percent.
Household Net Worth as Percent of GDP Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP.  
Net worth increased $4.8 trillion in Q3 to an all-time high.  As a percent of GDP, net worth increased in Q3 but is below the peak in 2021.
This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc.) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations.

Household Percent EquityThe second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952.

Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008.

In Q3 2024, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 74.7% - down from 75.0% in Q2, 2024. This is close to the highest percent equity since the 1960s.

Note: This includes households with no mortgage debt.

Household Real Estate Assets Percent GDP The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.  

Mortgage debt increased by $105 billion in Q3.

Mortgage debt is up $2.58 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 45.2% - down from Q2 - and down from a peak of 73.3% of GDP during the housing bust.

The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, decreased in Q3 and is below the peak in Q2 2022, but is well above the median of the last 30 years.

"That's Journalism": ProPublica Pats Itself On Back After Hegseth Hitpiece Humiliation

Zero Hedge -

"That's Journalism": ProPublica Pats Itself On Back After Hegseth Hitpiece Humiliation

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Leftist attack dog ProPublica seemed unfazed by the widespread ridicule it faced on social media after its botched attempt at a smear campaign against Pete Hegseth backfired.

The publication had plotted to accuse Hegseth of falsely claiming he was accepted into West Point. In response, Hegseth got ahead of the publication and shared his acceptance letter confirming that he had been accepted into the military academy—though he declined the offer.

In a now-viral tweet, Hegseth wrote, “We understand that ProPublica (the Left Wing hack group) is planning to publish a knowingly false report that I was not accepted to West Point in 1999.”

Hegseth also shared his letter of acceptance signed by Army Lieutenant General and then-West Point Superintendent Daniel Christman. 

As criticism mounted against ProPublica, its editor, Jesse Eisinger, attempted to defend the outlet but inadvertently made the situation worse. He claimed West Point had falsely informed the publication that Hegseth was never admitted to the military academy. 

“We asked West Pt public affairs, which told us twice on the record that he hadn’t even applied there,” Eisinger wrote on X. “We reached out. Hegseth’s spox gave us his acceptance letter. We didn’t publish a story. That’s journalism.” 

Despite Eisinger’s attempt to save face, Hegseth’s defenders said the real story ProPublica should have published was that West Point had incorrectly discredited Hegseth. 

Initially, ProPublica quoted West Point as stating, “According to the admissions office – Hegseth had not applied for admission to the U.S. Military Academy.”  

After being pressed for clarification, West Point admitted: “A review of our records indicates that Mr. Peter Hegseth was offered admission to West Point in 1999 but did not attend West Point.” 

West Point confirmed Hegseth had been offered admission for the class of 2023, issuing a statement to correct the record. 

“An incorrect statement involving Mr. Hegseth’s admission to the United States Military Academy was released by an employee on December 10, 2024,” the academy said. “Upon further review of an achieved [sic] database, employees realized this statement was in error.”

The academy added it was taking “this situation very seriously” and issued an apology “for this administrative error.” 

ProPublica’s failed attempt to smear Hegseth appeared to be part of a broader campaign aimed at thwarting his nomination as the next secretary of the Department of Defense. 

Trump announced his decision to nominate Hegseth following his landslide victory in the 2024 presidential election. Despite relentless media attacks on Hegseth’s personal life, the president-elect has stood by his side. 

“He will be a fantastic, high energy, Secretary of Defense,” Trump wrote on Truth Social earlier this month, later adding: “Pete is a WINNER, and there is nothing that can be done to change that!!!” 

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 12:20

What If A Nuke Detonated In Los Angeles?

Zero Hedge -

What If A Nuke Detonated In Los Angeles?

Submitted by Angel Studios,

As the Deep State continues its desperate push to cause as much chaos as possible before Trump takes office with the overthrow of Assad in Syria and deeper strikes into Russia causing Putin to loosen his nuclear weapons doctrine, Newsweek recently published a harrowing analysis showing the effect of a R-36M2 missile impact in major U.S. cities.

Screenshot from movie Homestead. © Angel Studios

Also know as SS-18 "Satan", the nuclear-grade missile is a cornerstone of the Russian arsenal since the Soviet Union with a range of up to 10,000 miles and yield of 20 megatons (over 1,000x Hiroshima). Just one impact in any major U.S. city would dwarf America's WWII losses in minutes, to wit:

  • Washington, D.C.: Approximately 6.1 million people would be within the total blast range, with fatalities reaching 1.64 million. Capitol Hill would fall within the fireball radius being melted.

  • New York City: With an average of 16.3 million people present, fatalities could exceed 5.46 million. The destruction would extend to surrounding areas like New Brunswick and Stamford.

  • Chicago: Fatalities might approach 2 million, with Lake Michigan absorbing much of the fallout.

  • Houston: In this city, over 1.2 million deaths and 2 million injuries are estimated.

  • Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, and Dallas: Each city would suffer extensive casualties and injuries, with death tolls ranging from nearly 1 million in Phoenix to 1.6 million in Philadelphia.

Behind NYC, the most devastating metropolitan blast would occur in Los Angeles. Per Newsweek:

“Some 2,758,790 would die and 4,369,390 would be injured. In any given 24-hour period, there are on average 12,092,715 people in the full blast range (all four circles) of the simulated detonation. Thermal radiation would hit Santa Monica, Calabasas, Long Beach and parts of Pomona.”

A map showing the impact of an attack on Los Angeles. Newsweek used maps produced by Alex Wellerstein to assess what the impact would be if Moscow attacked with its R-36M2 (also known as the SS-18 Satan).

In the above image, the “fireball radius” (small inner yellow circle) is the zone in which everything would be vaporized by intense heat rising to millions of degrees Fahrenheit. This would reach around 15.1 square miles of surface area. The more moderate blast damage radius (inner gray circle) covers 442 square miles of the blast and would destroy residential buildings, causing widespread fires.

Anyone within 2,360 square miles of the explosion (the thermal radiation radius: wider orange circle) would be at risk of suffering third-degree skin burns, "often painless because they destroy the pain nerves," which can cause severe scarring, disablement and require amputation.

Within the light blast damage radius (wider gray circle), 3,490 square miles from the blast, glass windows should be expected to break.

Thank you Victoria Nuland…

An LA-based nuclear blast is also the core plot of the new upcoming movie Homestead by Angel Studios. In 2023, Angel released Sounds of Freedom, which grossed $250 million against a $14.5 million budget. It has become one of the most successful independent films in history and exposed the horrors of child trafficking. Now they've returned with a not-so-cheery Christmas movie:

<br />

Showtimes are selling out across the country. To support a Christian film studio that is taking on the Hollywood monopoly, preorder tickets with this link within the next 3 days for a chance to win a tiny-home (valued at $139k), a bitcoin, and tons of other prepper gear. More info here:

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 11:40

Trump Considers a16z's Crypto Policy Head For CFTC Chair; Report

Zero Hedge -

Trump Considers a16z's Crypto Policy Head For CFTC Chair; Report

Authored by Josh O'Sullivan via CoinTelegraph.com,

Brian Quintenz, a former United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) commissioner, has reportedly emerged as the top contender for the CFTC chair position under the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump.

According to a Bloomberg report, people familiar with the matter said that Quintenz had been interviewed for the position.

Currently the head of policy at Andreessen Horowitz’s crypto division, a16z, Quintenz’s background includes overseeing key policy initiatives at the CFTC between 2017 and 2021.

The appointment of the former CFTC commissioner may shift the scales in the long-debated jurisdictional lack of clarity over cryptocurrencies between the CFTC and the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

Looking for a guy in finance?

Quintenz previously served as a Republican-appointed commissioner at the CFTC, advocating for financial innovation of the digital asset industry and currently pushes for regulatory clarity as head of policy at a16z.

During his tenure at the CFTC, he supported the integration of digital asset derivatives and event contracts into the federal agency’s regular framework, focusing on improving innovation while maintaining market integrity. 

At a16z, Quintenz advocates for regulations that balance scrutiny with flexibility in crypto, using his dual experience in traditional finance (TradFi) and crypto regulation to bridge the two playing fields.

Quintenz’s criticism of the SEC

In March, the former CFTC commissioner criticized the SEC for how it handled Ether’s status as a security, arguing that the regulator already “explicitly acknowledged” that Ether ETH$3,960.53 is a non-security asset as of October 2023 when it approved Ether futures exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Quintenz stated that “if the SEC had any doubt about the regulatory treatment of ETH [...] it wouldn’t have approved the ETF,” adding that if it were a security, the CFTC-listed future contracts “would be illegal.” 

Since then, spot Ether ETFs have not only been approved, but they have flourished, recording their biggest single day of inflows with an aggregate of $431.5 million pouring in on Dec. 5.

Crypto under the Trump administration

The venture capital firm a16z has expressed its opinion on the upcoming Trump administration, stating that it expects “greater flexibility to experiment” in the crypto regulatory shakeup.

The crypto company said it is “very optimistic” about the next government due to its promised pro-crypto political stance — something crypto firms and communities consider lacking under the previous administration.

A16z has been one of the largest investors in the crypto industry, funding hundreds of startup firms, including Maker, Solana, Avalanche, Aptos, EigenLayer, Lido, Nansen, OpenSea, Coinbase and more.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 11:40

Ukraine Sent Drones & Operators To HTS Before Offensive That Ousted Assad, WaPo Confirms

Zero Hedge -

Ukraine Sent Drones & Operators To HTS Before Offensive That Ousted Assad, WaPo Confirms

While it had been reported in independent as well as Russian media previously, this week The Washington Post offered further confirmation that Ukrainian intelligence had provided Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) with direct drone support in the weeks leading up to the shock offensive which led to the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

"Ukrainian intelligence sent about 20 experienced drone operators and about 150 first-person-view drones to the rebel headquarters in Idlib, Syria, four to five weeks ago," wrote Washington Post columnist David Ignatius this week.

Via Ukrinform

Ukrainian officials had previously openly boasted that they would assist in hitting Russian assets and bases in Syria, in order to bog its forces down there and distract the top Russian command from the Ukrainian front lines.

Small drone warfare has been said by many analysts to be a key component further demoralizing Syrian Army positions after Assad's military and state institutions had been essentially hollowed out after years of grinding war and crippling Western sanctions.

The Washington Post wrote:

The aid from Kyiv played only a modest role in overthrowing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Western intelligence sources believe. But it was notable as part of a broader Ukrainian effort to strike covertly at Russian operations in the Middle East, Africa and inside Russia itself.

Ukraine’s covert assistance program in Syria has been an open secret, though senior Biden administration officials said repeatedly in answer to my questions that they weren’t aware of it. Ukraine’s motivation is obvious: Facing a Russian onslaught inside their country, Ukrainian intelligence has looked for other fronts where it can bloody Russia’s nose and undermine its clients.

Russia has acknowledged and vehemently condemned this, after Assad fled to Moscow where he and his family were given asylum.

"Ukrainian military instructors from the GUR are present… training HTS fighters for combat operations," Russian Ambassador to the UN Vassily Nebenzia told a UN audience soon after the HTS offensive started and took Aleppo.

And more from WaPo on Ukraine entering a 'dirty war' in Syria:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had made a similar claim in September about "Ukrainian intelligence emissaries" in Idlib. He claimed they were conducting “dirty operations,” according to the Syrian newspaper Al-Watan, which asserted that Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of the GUR, had been in touch personally with HTS.

Not only does this mean the Zelensky government was directly supporting a US-designated terror organization, but clearly such a clandestine operation would have involved some degree of NATO coordination

While it's very clear NATO member Turkey has been propping up both HTS and the "Syrian National Army" (SNA), the latter primarily in Aleppo and north of it, it's a bit of an open question the degree to which Western intelligence was directly guiding the HTS offensive. Certainly HTS has had NATO assistance in the recent past, at the very least. For example a Western intelligence staffed 'operations room' in southern Turkey helped the Islamist coalition take Idlib from Assad forces in the first place, in 2015.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 11:20

Biden Announces Largest One-Day Act Of Clemency In History: Pardons 39, Commutes 1,500 Sentences

Zero Hedge -

Biden Announces Largest One-Day Act Of Clemency In History: Pardons 39, Commutes 1,500 Sentences

By Zachary Stieber of Epoch Times

President Joe Biden on Dec. 12 announced he was pardoning 39 people and commuting the sentences of nearly 1,500 others, in the largest single-day act of clemency in history.

The pardons are going to individuals who were convicted of nonviolent crimes such as drug offenses, the White House said. Those who are having their sentences commuted were placed in home confinement during the COVID-19 pandemic and “have successfully reintegrated into their families and communities,” according to the White House.

“America was built on the promise of possibility and second chances,” Biden said in a statement. “As President, I have the great privilege of extending mercy to people who have demonstrated remorse and rehabilitation, restoring opportunity for Americans to participate in daily life and contribute to their communities, and taking steps to remove sentencing disparities for non-violent offenders, especially those convicted of drug offenses.”

Officials did not release the names of any of the individuals being granted relief.

They said the people include a nurse who helped spearhead COVID-19 vaccination efforts, an addiction counselor who volunteers to help young people, and a military veteran who assists frail, fellow church members.

Biden made the move after pardoning his son, Hunter Biden, who was convicted of illegal possession of a firearm and pleaded guilty to intentionally not paying taxes.

Biden is set to leave office on Jan. 20, 2025, after he bowed out of his bid for reelection. President-elect Donald Trump beat Vice President Kamala Harris in the November race.

At this point in his presidency, Biden has already commuted more sentences than his recent predecessors, including Trump. He has also issued categorical pardons to people convicted of using or possessing marijuana, and former military members convicted of consensual sodomy.

The White House said that before Biden leaves office he “will take additional steps to provide meaningful second chances and continue to review additional pardons and commutations.” The White House added that “there is more to come.”

Lawmakers had not yet reacted to the new pardons and commutations by the time of publication.

Biden has received criticism for pardoning his son, especially because jurors cast a verdict in one of the cases.

The White House has defended the move, which took place after the president and the White House said a pardon for Hunter Biden would not happen.

 

Biden has also been reportedly considering pre-pardons for certain individuals whom a second Trump administration may investigate. Former President Bill Clinton said this week that he hoped Biden does not issue pre-pardons.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 11:00

'USA' Chants Roar As Trump Rings NYSE Bell After Being Named TIME 'Person Of The Year'

Zero Hedge -

'USA' Chants Roar As Trump Rings NYSE Bell After Being Named TIME 'Person Of The Year'

Donald Trump has been crowned TIME magazine's Person of the Year after reclaiming the presidency, marking him as only the second U.S. president in history to serve non-consecutive terms. The announcement came on Thursday, placing Trump at the pinnacle of a contentious list of global influencers.

"Trump's political rebirth is unparalleled in American history," TIME wrote in an announcement, after speaking with the President-elect ahead of the announcement.

Trump dubbed his campaign "72 Days of Fury" after a term that Trump himself coined. This win sets Trump apart as a political figure of singular historical significance, having first held the title in 2016 when he initially seized the presidency from Hillary Clinton.

Trump’s political rebirth is unparalleled in American history. His first term ended in disgrace, with his attempts to overturn the 2020 election results culminating in the attack on the U.S. Capitol. He was shunned by most party officials when he announced his candidacy in late 2022 amid multiple criminal investigations. Little more than a year later, Trump cleared the Republican field, clinching one of the fastest contested presidential primaries in history. -TIME

The competition for this year's title was fierce, with Trump edging out other high-profile names such as Vice President Kamala Harris, his tech mogul supporter Elon Musk, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Catherine, Princess of Wales. Notably, Musk was the magazine’s pick back in 2021.

Reflecting on his tumultuous path to victory, Trump's year included overcoming significant challenges: a stark clearing of the GOP field, a conviction in a New York courtroom, and surviving not one, but two assassination attempts.

The campaign saw surprising alliances, including consolidations of support from unexpected quarters such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Elon Musk, alongside a dramatic shift in the Democratic nomination.

According to TIME, Trump's win gave him the "political capital to address the sources of American discontent at home and abroad" Trump himself suggested a bold agenda, including plans to pardon Jan. 6 political prisoners.

"It's going to start in the first hour ... maybe the first nine minutes," Trump told the outlet.

The Person of the Year title, a tradition since 1927, is not necessarily a mark of honor but rather a recognition of influence. TIME has historically selected presidents during their election victories, with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris jointly receiving the nod in 2020, and other repeat honorees including Barack Obama and George W. Bush.

Trump’s victory lap included ringing the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan, where chants of "USA' broke out...

Trump is the first president to ring the bell since Ronald Reagan.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 11:00

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