Azerbaijan's "Multi-Vector Alignment" Poses A Serious Challenge To Russia

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” is poised to become a military-logistics corridor for expanding NATO influence along Russia’s southern periphery and could thus force Putin into the zero-sum dilemma of accepting this or authorizing military action in an attempt to preempt it.

Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev recently published an insightful piece asking whether former Soviet Republics are moving “Towards Genuine Multi-Vector Alignment?” This is described as “systematic efforts to create and maintain, insofar as possible, balanced and mutually beneficial relations with different global centres of power and regional actors, without obvious orientation towards any single bloc, and relying on tactical maneuvering to ensure security and achieve core development goals.”

He claims that “The fact that this habit began to take shape (among the post-Soviet states) through opposition to traditional Russian influence could be regarded as an ‘inevitable evil’ which, in essence, could not inflict truly fundamental damage on Russia…Today, however, the management of multi-vector alignment may confront Russia’s neighbours—and, one step further, Russia itself—with new challenges.” These include US coercion and “a readiness to significantly enhance one’s status in regional affairs.”

Bordachev didn’t name any of the post-Soviet states other than Russia in his article, but the argument can be made that his concerns are most relevant with respect to Azerbaijan.

Its decision to replace Russian mediation with Armenia with American mediation, agree last August to the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) which replaces Russia’s envisaged regional corridor and role therein, and the outcome of Vance’s recent trip there collectively pose a serious challenge to Russia.

All of these moves are framed by Azerbaijan as part of what Bordachev describes as the “multi-vector alignment” policy, which is factually correct. It’s also true what he wrote about how “signalling one’s own foreign-policy autonomy and the capacity to make decisions based on national interests as shaped by domestic political development” is “by no means objectionable”. The problem therefore rests in this policy’s practical implementation by Azerbaijan in the current geostrategic context of the New Cold War.

Trump 2.0 is tightening the West’s encirclement of Russia in an attempt to coerce Putin into concessions in Ukraine that would leave unfulfilled the maximalist national security goals of the special operation. That was the purpose of Vance’s trip to the South Caucasus as was explained here. Azerbaijan now functions as a launchpad for expanding US economic, political, and inevitably, military influence across the South Caucasus, the Caspian Sea, and Central Asia, which is Russia’s entire southern periphery.

Nearby Kazakhstan, which announced in December that it plans to produce NATO-standard shells, might soon be emboldened to more openly defy Russia in Azerbaijani-inspired ways that challenge its security interests even more seriously under the pretext of implementing its own “multi-vector alignment” policy. This risks replicating the NATO-Russian security dilemma that ultimately led to the special operation when it became unmanageable, except this time along two southern fronts at once, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

Azerbaijan’s “multi-vector alignment” policy and consequent “readiness to significantly enhance [its] status in regional affairs”, albeit at the expense of Russia’s security interests, is responsible for setting this scenario into motion. TRIPP is poised to become a military-logistics corridor for expanding NATO influence along Russia’s entire southern periphery so Putin might therefore soon be forced into the zero-sum dilemma of accepting this encirclement or authorizing military action in an attempt to preempt it.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/08/2026 - 08:10

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

• The Worst Acquisition in History, Again: Scott Galloway on whichever deal just earned this dubious distinction. After six months and eight failed bids, the Ellisons made the Warner Bros. Discovery board an offer they couldn’t refuse. The potential Netflix acquisition would’ve been akin to fusing LVMH and Walmart — HBO’s prestige TV and Warner’s iconic IP, plus Netflix’s scale. Paramount Skydance buying WBD is the fusion of a dog and a car bumper traveling 80 miles an hour. Spoiler alert: It’s not going to end well. The Prof G postmortem is always more entertaining than the deal itself. (No Mercy / No Malice)

• As bitcoin mining economics “have gone from bad to worse,” companies pivot and sell to survive: Core Scientific is just the latest miner offloading its bitcoin, as other miners turn their compute power to AI. (Sherwood) see also Bitcoin’s Plunge Should End the Hype That It Is Digital Gold: Bitcoin fell while gold rallied. Again. At some point, the “store of value” crowd has to reckon with the fact that it trades like a risk asset in every downturn. (The Hill)

• Gambling in the modern age. Sports betting is being marketed to young Americans as an investment. America’s next epidemic. More than 10% of college students are pathological gamblers. That’s 5x the national average, by some estimates. (Bettor Off)

• Books and screens: Your inability to focus isn’t a failing. It’s a design problem, and the answer isn’t getting rid of our screen time. (Aeon)

• Kash Patel’s Latest Firings Ousted Agents with Expertise in Iran: You’d think that during a war with Iran, you’d want to keep the people who know the most about Iran. You would be wrong. (MSNBC) see also Intel report warns large-scale war ‘unlikely’ to oust Iran’s regime: A classified U.S. report doubts that Iran’s opposition would take power following either a short or extended U.S. military campaign. (Washington Post)

• The Return of Measles Is Bad. A Polio Comeback Would Be So, So Much Worse: If you think measles outbreaks are scary, wait until you remember what polio actually does. (Techdirt)

• Pardon Industry Offers Rich Offenders a Path to Trump: One inmate paid lobbyists and lawyers with ties to the president’s team and walked free. Others are following his blueprint, but it is not always clear who can deliver. A cottage industry of lobbyists and fixers is selling access to presidential clemency. The NYT maps the network and the price list. (New York Times) see also Documents Reveal a Web of Financial Ties Between Trump Officials and the Industries They Help Regulate: ProPublica digs into the financial disclosures and finds exactly what you’d expect: Financial disclosures paint a damning picture of foxes guarding henhouses across every corner of the administration — the regulators are invested in the industries they oversee. Corruption hiding in plain sight on government forms. (ProPublica)

• Ted Cruz Asks Treasury to Approve $200 Billion Tax Cut Without Congress: Who needs the legislative branch when you can just ask the Treasury Department to unilaterally slash capital gains taxes? (Washington Post)

• I Was a Broke Millennial. I Tried to Trade My Way to Financial Freedom: A cautionary tale of a generation that grew up on Robinhood and learned the hard way that markets don’t care about your student loans. (Wall Street Journal) see also Record Numbers of Workers Are Raiding Their 401(k) Savings: Hardship withdrawals are at all-time highs. So much for the ownership society. (Wall Street Journal)

• Russia Is Providing Iran Intelligence to Target U.S. Forces, Officials Say: Moscow is feeding targeting data to Tehran. The war in the Middle East is becoming a proxy conflict with Russia in ways that weren’t part of the original pitch to the American public. The targeting information has included the locations of American warships and aircraft in the Middle East, the officials said.  (Washington Post)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this weekend with Ed Perks, president of Franklin Advisers and chief investment officer of Franklin Income Investors. He serves as lead portfolio manager of Franklin Income Fund, as well as Franklin Managed Income Fund. He is a member of the Franklin Templeton executive committee, a small group of the company’s top leaders responsible for shaping the firm’s overall strategy.

 

Anecdotal evidence AI is replacing young workers’ jobs showing up in the data across a wide range of countries.

Source: Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank

 

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To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Is Putin About To Deal His Long-Awaited Deathblow To The EU Economy

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

He just ordered that some of Russia’s LNG exports to the EU be redirected to Asia, and if the EU doesn’t coerce Zelensky into giving him giving him more of what he wants in Ukraine, then there’d be no reason for him to not cut off Russia’s exports to them entirely for catalyzing a full-blown crisis.

The EU agreed late last year to end Russian LNG imports by 31 December 2026 and pipeline gas imports by 30 September 2027, with the possibility of extending the deadline till 31 October 2027 in case storage levels are below their required filling levels. This was done because “The US Weaponized Russophobic Paranoia & Energy Geopolitics To Capture Control Of Europe”, ergo why it encouraged this decision so as to then monopolize the bloc’s energy market in tandem with its Qatari ally, another LNG superpower.

Everything changed with the Third Gulf War, which began with joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran and has since seen Iran retaliate against all of the Gulf Kingdoms on the basis that the US infrastructure on their territories is being used in attacks against the Islamic Republic. The Strait of Hormuz is now effectively closed and the Gulf Kingdoms are scaling back energy production due to nearly reaching their storage capacity. Importantly, Qatar is also shutting down its gas liquefication, which will take weeks to restart.

It’s for these reasons that an energy crisis is expected which might surpass the one during COVID and even the 1973 Arab oil embargo in terms of its global disruption. With Gulf oil and gas pretty much out of the picture for now, the only realistic recourse for stabilizing the market is to return Russian resources thereto, which contextualizes why the US just temporarily waived sanctions on India’s purchase of Russian oil. The EU might also ramp up its gas imports from Russia ahead of its self-imposed deadlines.

With the impending global energy crisis in mind, Putin announced last week that he ordered his government to look into the possibility of redirecting European energy exports to Asia since they’re more profitable and won’t soon stop importing Russian energy completely like the EU will. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak then confirmed shortly thereafter that the decision was just made to redirect some (keyword) LNG exports from Europe to friendly countries such as India and China.

The scenario of Russia cutting off gas exports to the EU before the EU cuts off its gas imports from Russia is still on the table, but Putin seems more interested in leveraging this possibility in furtherance of his strategic goals than eschewing such an opportunity just to punish his Western adversaries. To that end, Novak’s confirmation that he decided to redirect some LNG exports from Europe to Asia can be seen as proof of Putin’s intent, but he’s also signaling interest in reconsidering if certain conditions are met.

These are the fulfilment of his goals in Ukraine: Russia’s control over the entirety of the disputed regions, Ukraine’s demilitarization and denazification, the restoration of its constitutional neutrality, and no foreign troops there after the conflict ends. He also wants to begin negotiations on reforming the European security architecture so that it’s less threatening to Russia and is suspected of wanting Zelensky not to run in Ukraine’s next elections. Not all might be achieved, but some likely will, though.

It’s at this moment when the EU is facing an economic crisis caused by the Third Gulf War taking the region’s energy exports offline that the bloc must decide whether it will coerce Zelensky to give Putin at least some of what he wants in exchange for him not redirecting LNG exports from them to Asia. The US might help them with this too so as to maintain the purchasing power of one of its largest markets. If they fail to do so, however, then Putin might finally deal a long-awaited deathblow to the EU economy.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/07/2026 - 23:35

US Intelligence Community Assessed That Massive US Attack 'Unlikely' To Oust Iranian Regime: WaPo

Even a massive military assault on Iran is unlikely to topple the Islamic Republic of Iran and its state system, according to a classified assessment produced by the US intelligence community shortly before the US and Israel launched their current 'shock and awe-style' military campaign on Tehran. The Washington Post first reported it, perhaps based on some kind of leak or briefing by an anonymous intelligence official, and calls it—

a sobering assessment as the Trump administration raises the specter of an extended military campaign that officials say has "only just begun."

File image: Tulsi Gabbard is the United States Director of National Intelligence

The report, compiled by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) roughly a week before the war began, concluded that Iran's political system is structured to survive even major leadership losses, The Washington Post reports. However, this should really come as no surprise to anyone awake and observant throughout the past two plus decades of America's 'nation building' efforts in the Middle East, from Afghanistan to Iraq to Libya. 

Already, Israel and the US have touted that 'all' of Iran's top leadership has been decimated, and yet clearly the governing system and its military - led specially by the elite IRGC - is not only in control but is still fighting back.

According to the assessment, Tehran has long prepared for such contingencies - and likely there's an emergency plan now in place in the wake of Ayatollah's Khamenei's death.

Intelligence officials say Iran long ago established clear succession protocols designed to maintain continuity of power even if senior leaders are killed. In other words, the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would likely trigger an internal transition process rather than cause the system to collapse - again, something which should be the obvious scenario. 

The intelligence report also poured cold water on the idea that Iran's opposition could quickly fill any power vacuum. US intelligence analysts assessed that the country's fragmented opposition movements remain too divided to seize control, regardless of whether Washington pursued limited strikes against leadership targets or a broader assault on state institutions.

Equally unlikely, according to current and former US officials familiar with the analysis, is the prospect of a spontaneous nationwide uprising. We could speculate that this possibility may have had a chance of some degree of success within the opening one or two days of the mass US-Israel bombing campaign, but it clearly didn't materialize.

Welcome to U.S. elite foreign policy discourse, where you have to stroke your chin and muse thoughtfully about whether it's a good thing to trigger state collapse and civil war in a nation of 90 million that didn't pose an imminent threat. https://t.co/EWCLpZrIwF

— Marcus Stanley (@MarcusMStanley) March 7, 2026

On this prospect WaPo quotes Brookings:

“There’s no other force within Iran that can confront the remaining power that the regime has,” Suzanne Maloney, an Iran scholar and vice president of the Brookings Institution, told The Post. “Even if they’re not able to project that power very effectively against their neighbors, they can certainly dominate inside the country.”

The National Intelligence Council synthesizes the analytical work of all 18 US intelligence agencies, and produces classified estimates meant to guide policymakers on major geopolitical risks.

Much of the American public, raised on Hollywood movies, tends to have an overblown and inaccurate understanding of US intelligence agencies like the CIA. While the CIA certainly has a very powerful and secretive covert, operations side (and an even tinier Ground Branch)  - the bulk of its personnel and overseers/top officials are analysts. So there is an overt side and a covert side, with the analyst side tasked with providing the IC and White House with a 'realistic' picture of the world, ideally devoid of policy or ideology. Their job is also often to 'game out' all worst possible scenarios, given a certain course of action.

The report says the prospect of Iran’s fragmented opposition taking control of the country is “unlikely,” raising doubts about Trump’s declared plan to “clean out” Iran’s leadership structure and install a ruler of his choosing pic.twitter.com/YaHwgoWB9d

— John Hudson (@John_Hudson) March 7, 2026

Meanwhile, the White House has not said whether Trump was briefed on the assessment before approving the operation. But likely such an assessment would have made it into the CIA's daily briefing for the president, also given reports from last week that the Pentagon also tried to inject some realism in terms of the 'unknowns' once Tehran is attacked.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/07/2026 - 23:00

Explosion Hits US Embassy In Oslo

An explosion struck the US Embassy in Oslo, Norway Sunday morning, causing minor damage to the facility and no reported injuries.

The blast, which struck around 1:00 a.m. local time, occurred at the entry to the consular section, according to police spokesperson Mikael Dellemyr in a statement to public broadcaster NRK. 

"We've determined that an explosion ​hit the American embassy," he said. 

BREAKING: Officials say explosion was at the consular entrance to the U.S. Embassy in Oslo, Norway. - NRK pic.twitter.com/BmUfmefCYA

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 8, 2026

Police separately said that they don't have any idea what caused the blast or who was involved.

"The police are in a dialogue with the embassy and there ​are no ​reports of ⁠any injured persons," they said in a statement. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/07/2026 - 22:25

China Sidesteps Solar Targets In New Five-Year Plan

China’s latest five-year plan avoids setting ambitious solar targets, signaling rising challenges for the sector after years of explosive growth, according to Bloomberg.

Released during the annual National People’s Congress, the plan does not include a goal for solar installations by 2030. That omission contrasts with clearer commitments elsewhere in the energy mix, including plans to double offshore wind capacity and expand nuclear and pumped-hydro power. Solar receives relatively little attention overall, while policymakers instead emphasize broader transition initiatives such as zero-carbon industrial parks.

The shift follows a record surge in solar development. China’s solar power generation surpassed wind for the first time last year, driven by a flood of inexpensive panels that helped make solar one of the country’s most competitive energy sources.

Yet the rapid expansion is beginning to strain the power system. As solar’s share of the electricity mix rises, grid pressure has increased, leading to more curtailment and weaker returns for developers.

Bloomberg writes that China now faces a different set of challenges for both its power network and industrial economy.

“As renewables reach higher shares in the power mix, the focus naturally shifts toward system integration,” said Muyi Yang, a senior energy analyst at Ember. That means more attention on grid expansion, system flexibility, energy storage and other ways to balance intermittent power, including pumped hydro. Expanding clean power across industry also demands deeper structural changes, since existing systems were largely built around fossil fuels. “That’s where you start to see more explicit policy attention and new initiatives emerging like the zero-carbon industrial park initiative,” Yang said.

Meanwhile, market conditions in the solar supply chain remain weak. According to the China Silicon Industry Association, polysilicon prices in China dropped between 6.2% and 12.9% in the week through Wednesday as demand stayed soft after the Lunar New Year holiday and inventories remained elevated. Wafer prices also slipped between 2.5% and 2.9%, while module prices held steady at 0.71–0.75 yuan per watt and cell prices remained unchanged at 0.41–0.45 yuan per watt.

Grid utilization data also points to mounting strain. Solar power use edged down to 94.3% in January from 94.4% a year earlier and 94.6% in December, according to the National New Energy Consumption Monitoring and Early Warning Center.

At the same time, policymakers are beginning to address the sector’s next phase of development. China plans to strengthen its capacity to recycle aging solar modules, setting a target to process 250,000 tons by 2027 as large volumes of older equipment approach retirement. At the National People’s Congress, Zhong Baoshen, chairman and president of LONGi Green Energy Technology, also proposed creating a financing supervision system for the solar industry and restricting funding for companies that fail to meet regulatory requirements.

Forecasts referenced by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association suggest the sector’s breakneck expansion may slow by 2026 as grid constraints and weaker economics begin to bite.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/07/2026 - 21:50

Israeli Finance Minister's Son Wounded In Hezbollah Rocket Attack

Via The Cradle

At least eight Israeli soldiers were injured by Hezbollah rockets near the border with southern Lebanon on Friday, including the son of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, according to Israeli media. The Lebanese resistance targeted Israeli troop gatherings on Friday. A rocket struck a group of soldiers, wounding eight, five of whom are in serious condition, according to Israel’s military.

The Givati Brigade soldiers were transported to the hospital for treatment. Smotrich’s office released a statement saying his son was among the wounded troops. The attack comes a day after Smotrich vowed that Israel would make Beirut "look like Khan Yunis."

AFP/Getty Images

Hezbollah drone and rocket attacks on Israeli positions have been ongoing, including soldiers inside Lebanon and forces across the border. 

"The Mujahideen of the Islamic Resistance targeted a position where soldiers of the Israeli enemy army were entrenched in the Blat al-Mustaqbal area in southern Lebanon with a guided missile… and achieved a direct hit," Hezbollah announced early Friday evening. 

It also announced drone attacks on Kiryat Shmona, a rocket attack on a base in Safad, and around a dozen other operations. 

Israel has started a ground invasion of Lebanon after the pro-Tehran resistance reopened the front, following the beginning of the war of aggression against Iran.

Occupation troops have crossed the border into the country, while other forces are positioned in locations that the Israeli army occupied inside Lebanon after the ceasefire deal in 2024. 

Since the ground war began, Hebrew media have reported several "difficult security incidents" which are under heavy censorship. 

An Israeli army officer was wounded by Hezbollah resistance fighters on March 5, the Israeli military announced in an official statement. 

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's son was sent off to the northern front with Hezbollah and a day after was wounded:

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's son lasted one day in Lebanon before getting injured, according to Israeli media. pic.twitter.com/mifpnHiLiu

— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) March 6, 2026

The battles coincided with continued indiscriminate bombing by Israel across south Lebanon, the east, and the capital, Beirut. Over 200 Lebanese have been killed by Israel since March 2.

According to a report by Al Jadeed TV, France has proposed an initiative for an end to the war in Lebanon in exchange for "a full surrender of Hezbollah."

Hezbollah is "rejecting that any party negotiates on its behalf over ending the war, stressing that when the negotiations course matures, it will be the first negotiator, seeing as it considers the previous agreement to be unideal."

The Israeli army has attacked southern Lebanon almost every day since the November 2024 so-called ceasefire, killing hundreds of people. Hezbollah or possibly other groups began to launch sporadic missiles into northern Israel soon after the start of the Iran war this week.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/07/2026 - 21:15

New York Millionaire's Club Says They're Happy Paying Higher Taxes Under Mamdani

Sigh. It's all so exhausting. Not all of New York’s wealthiest residents are sounding alarms over Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s plan to raise taxes on high earners. In fact, a small group of millionaires says the backlash is a bit over the top, according to Bloomberg.

Members of the Patriotic Millionaires — including filmmaker Abigail Disney, granddaughter of Roy O. Disney of The Walt Disney Company — argue the rich can easily afford to contribute more if it helps fund things like schools, transit and child care.

“I’ve gotten tax cut after tax cut after tax cut. And I never needed any of them,” Disney said, backing Mamdani’s proposed 2-percentage-point income-tax surcharge on millionaires. “All these things have fallen out from under the middle class — an education system that works, public transportation, infrastructure, health care.”

Bloomberg writes that the mayor has floated several ways to boost city revenue, including higher income taxes for people earning more than $1 million and an increase in the top corporate tax rate. Critics, including hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman, say the approach risks driving wealthy residents and companies to lower-tax states like Florida or Texas — a concern echoed by Kathy Hochul and business groups.

Supporters counter that the idea of a billionaire stampede out of Manhattan is exaggerated. “I’m certainly not going to move because of higher taxes. That’s ridiculous,” said Morris Pearl, a former executive at BlackRock. “I live where I want to live, and so do most rich people.”

New York isn’t short on potential taxpayers. Nearly 35,000 city residents earned at least $1 million in 2023, and the top 1% already generate roughly two-fifths of the city’s income-tax revenue, according to the New York City Independent Budget Office. For some wealthy advocates, that just proves the point: the people with the deepest pockets can afford to keep the city running.

Pearl also notes how easily the ultra-wealthy can sidestep income taxes altogether. “When you’re already rich, you don’t need income,” he said. “If you don’t have income, you don’t pay income taxes.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/07/2026 - 20:45

Turkey Mulls F-16 Deployment To Turkish-Occupied Cyprus Amid Iran War Tensions

As the Iran war unfolds and has shown signs of becoming a regional conflict, one interesting question is what Turkey's role will be - given it is both a NATO member possessing a large military and an avowed regional enemy and rival to Israel for influence. 

A Turkish defense ministry source has been cited in national media to say the country is mulling deployment of F-16 fighter jets to the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).

Occupied northern Cyprus, Shutterstock/Middle East Forum

Earlier this week a British military base hosted in EU member Cyprus (on the southern side of the island) came under attack by Iranian-made drones. 

This has resulted in some European military assets being moved to Cyprus, including additional British forces. But now it appears Turkey wants to make a show of doing the name for Turkish-claimed Cypriot territory.

Turkey's Daily Sabah points out, however, that "TRNC has been incensed by Greek Cypriot's growing military cooperation with its Western partners after the United Kingdom has allowed the U.S. to use its military base in the south of the divided island.

Citing the military source, the same Turkish outlet said, "The TRNC leadership has held a series of security meetings in response to the crisis, he added, focusing on crisis management, coordination with Türkiye and the preparedness of civil defense mechanisms."

As for Turkey's long occupation of northern Cyprus, no one else in the world recognizes its legitimacy except for Ankara. Cyprus receives backing from its EU partners, but this doesn't go much beyond verbal censure of Turkey.

The Turkish armed forces has for years had at least 30,000 soldiers stationed on Cyprus and growing, the northern part of which it has illegally occupied since 1974.

It remains something that Greek Cypriots cannot forgive or forget, and it continues to shape a deep and lasting distrust of Britain. https://t.co/Id30iJpP4V

— elena antoniou (@elenaantoniou3) March 7, 2026

At the moment, President Erdogan has reportedly reached out to the UK's Starmer, urging for Britain to do more diplomacy to immediately bring the Iran-US-Israel war to halt.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/07/2026 - 19:45

PJM Market Monitor Opposes Maryland Coal Plant Sale To Data Center Company

By Ethan Howland of UtilityDive

The PJM Interconnection’s market monitor on Wednesday urged federal regulators to reject an application from GenOn to sell a 216-MW power plant in Maryland to TeraWulf over concerns the data center developer would remove the resource from PJM’s market.

Taking the four Morgantown generating units out of the PJM market would run counter to “principles” issued by the National Energy Dominance Council and the PJM governors that call for new data centers to provide new generation, Monitoring Analytics, the market monitor, said in a filing with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

The proposed deal between TeraWulf and GenOn would also shift risks and costs to PJM customers and would be inconsistent with the public interest, according to Monitoring Analytics.

Boats are docked at the Aqualand Marina as emissions spew out of a stack at the Morgantown Generating Station on June 29, 2015, in Newburg, Md. The PJM Interconnection’s market monitor on March 4, 2026, urged federal regulators to reject an application from GenOn to sell the power plant to TeraWulf. Mark Wilson via Getty Images

The Trump administration and others have been pressing for data center companies to pay for their own power supply and energy infrastructure needs. President Donald Trump on Wednesday issued a “ratepayer pledge” — signed by Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle and xAI — that states that the companies will acquire new generation to meet their data center needs.

“Where possible, these companies will also add more capacity that serves the broader public by increasing supply,” the pledge states.

In its filing at FERC, Monitoring Analytics said the Morgantown power plant is in a constrained zone in PJM that needs existing generation to be retained and new generation to be built.

FERC should reject the proposed deal and require GenOn to refile its application to clarify that the Morgantown units would continue supplying the PJM market, according to the market monitor.

“TeraWulf should be required to commit to not removing the Morgantown Units from the PJM market to serve data center load,” Monitoring Analytics said.

TeraWulf, however, plans to be a net generator for Maryland, according to company officials.

TeraWulf intends to build its project in two phases, each with about 500 MW of gas-fired generation, 250 MW of battery storage and 500 MW of data center load, Paul Prager, TeraWulf chairman and CEO, said during a Feb. 26 earnings call.

“The site is being engineered to operate as a net generator to the state,” Prager said. “We are not just consuming capacity. We are adding it in constrained markets.”

TeraWulf intends to use the planned battery storage at the Morgantown site to shave peak load in a benefit to the PJM grid, Nazar Khan, TeraWulf chief technology officer, said.

Potentially, the project’s first phase could come online in late 2028, according to Prager.

The Morgantown power plant site includes four generating units totaling about 1,260 MW that were shuttered in 2022.

TeraWulf posted a $661.4 million loss in 2025, up from a $72.4 million loss the year before while its revenue increased to $168.5 million from $140.1 million in the same period, according to its annual report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Since 2022, TeraWulf has mainly funded its operations by selling bitcoin and issuing debt and equity, the company said.

Besides the Morgantown project, TeraWulf has data center projects in Kentucky, New York and Texas, according to a Feb. 26 investor presentation. 

Other parties protesting the Morgantown deal at FERC include Public Citizen and area residents. FERC should direct TeraWulf to describe its plans for the Morgantown site, including how it intends to remediate coal-related pollution there, according to Public Citizen.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/07/2026 - 19:15

Venezuela's Gas Potential Could Overshadow Its Famous Oil Reserves

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

• While attention is often on Venezuela's vast oil reserves, many experts believe that exploiting its natural gas fields, which were previously neglected, presents a more immediate opportunity for economic success.

• Developing Venezuela's gas industry will likely require an energy partnership with neighboring Trinidad and Tobago, as the island nation possesses the necessary infrastructure for processing and exporting the fuel that Venezuela lacks.

• Major international companies like Shell and BP are pursuing key Venezuelan gas projects, such as the Dragon and Cocuina fields, a move facilitated by greater leniency on U.S. sanctions.

Following the United States intervention in Venezuela on 3rd January, which brought an end to President Nicolás Maduro’s 13-year dictatorship, all eyes have been on the South American country’s oil industry. Once one of the world’s biggest oil producers, output has waned in recent years. However, with U.S. President Trump setting his sights on Venezuelan crude, many are speculating just how quickly its resources can be tapped. While the focus is on Venezuela’s potential as an oil power, others think that more immediate success may be seen in the exploitation of its gas fields. 

Venezuela is home to the largest oil reserves in the world, with an estimated 300 billion barrels. However, years of underinvestment and mismanagement have led to a significant reduction in output. The recent U.S. intervention in the South American country has drawn new investor interest in its energy market, as President Trump vows to rapidly redevelop Venezuela’s long-neglected oil resources.

On 13th February, the White House published a press release that stated, “The Trump Administration is rapidly implementing President Trump’s vision to reopen and develop Venezuela’s oil industry for the shared benefit of the American and Venezuelan people. Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, the United States has already issued several general licenses at record speed for oil and gas companies?to make unprecedented investments in Venezuela’s energy infrastructure.”

The statement went on to say, “Venezuela holds tremendous economic potential, but years of instability, corruption, and economic mismanagement have limited the nation’s growth and prosperity. These general licenses invite American and other aligned companies to?play a constructive role in supporting economic recovery?and responsible investment.”

While the world eyes Venezuela’s untapped oil, some believe that there may be greater mid-term potential in exploiting its natural gas reserves. Most of Venezuela’s gas is trapped deep beneath the seafloor. While these reserves were first discovered several decades ago, ago, off the country’s eastern coast, along the border with Trinidad and Tobago, the Venezuelan government left them largely untouched as it focused its attention on oil production. 

Several oil majors, such as Shell, have previously approached Venezuela for a stake in its gas business, even when interest in the country’s oil industry was waning due to geopolitical instability and U.S. sanctions. For years, U.S. sanctions on Venezuela’s government and its state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, have restricted the development of its gas industry. In addition, developing its natural gas industry would require cooperation with neighbouring Trinidad and Tobago. 

Trinidad and Tobago already has the necessary infrastructure to transport fuel onshore and export it, which Venezuela does not. If the two countries established an energy partnership, Trinidad’s pre-existing infrastructure could help Venezuela to develop its gas industry more rapidly. However, the two powers, which are separated by language (Spanish and English), have had a strained relationship in recent years. Trinidad and Tobago has generally sided with the United States when it comes to Maduro’s presidency and the decision to impose sanctions on Venezuelan energy. 

Venezuela’s biggest natural gas prospect is the giant Dragon oil field, as it is the closest to being developed. The Venezuelan government previously conducted exploration activities in the field but was unable to retrieve the gas buried there due to a lack of funding to continue exploration. These efforts were further undermined by the sinking of an exploration rig in 2010.

In 2023, the Venezuelan government made a deal with Shell, allowing the foreign firm to explore the Dragon field. The plan was to construct a short pipeline between Dragon and Shell’s existing infrastructure on the island of Trinidad, rather than to start from scratch in Venezuela. 

If Shell develops Dragon, the field is expected to generate around $500 million a year in revenue, based on current natural gas prices, of which at least 45 percent is expected to go to Venezuela in the form of taxes and royalties. “These are opportunities that could potentially be activated within months, with potentially a few billion dollars of investments and production in the next couple of years,” Shell’s CEO, Wael Sawan, told CNBC.

U.S. Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, said that developing a regional natural gas collaboration could be “a real potential win-win for Trinidad and Tobago, a win for the global L.N.G. market, a win for Venezuela.”

Meanwhile, BP is pursuing another Venezuelan gas project, a field known as Cocuina, which greater leniency on U.S. sanctions may make possible. In late February, the U.S. Treasury Department appeared to give oil and gas firms greater leeway to negotiate with Venezuela and operate in the South American country. “They are splicing together an environment that allows the existing players to operate,” said Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Centre for a New American Security.

While President Trump is eyeing long-term oil industry development in Venezuela, some international oil majors may be more interested in the South American country’s natural gas potential. Developing the resource will likely require collaboration with neighbouring Trinidad and Tobago, and could lead to the development of a new regional Latin America-Caribbean energy hub. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/07/2026 - 18:15

Kalshi, Polymarket Eye $20B Valuations In Potential Fundraising: WSJ

Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com,

Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly exploring new fundraising rounds that could value the companies at around $20 billion each, roughly double their most recent valuations.

Both platforms have held preliminary discussions with potential investors about raising fresh capital at the elevated valuation, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. The report noted that the negotiations remain at an early stage and may not result in deals or secure the targeted valuation.

Kalshi currently operates in the United States and offers markets allowing users to wager on outcomes tied to sports, politics, the economy and cultural events. The company was last valued at about $11 billion in December when it raised $1 billion from investors including Paradigm and Sequoia Capital.

Founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi received approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2020 to operate as a regulated exchange for event-based markets. The platform has since expanded rapidly and recently surpassed a $1 billion revenue run rate, with some estimates placing the figure closer to $1.5 billion.

Polymarket plans US launch later this year

Polymarket, launched in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, remains inaccessible to US users without a virtual private network but plans to introduce a regulated domestic version of its platform later this year. The company was valued at roughly $9 billion in October after Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed to invest up to $2 billion.

Both platforms have drawn attention from lawmakers and regulators. As Cointelegraph reported, US Democratic lawmakers are drafting legislation to regulate prediction markets after suspiciously timed bets on the timing of US and Israeli strikes on Iran raised insider-trading concerns.

Senator Chris Murphy alleged that individuals close to the White House may have used advance knowledge of the attack to place bets, noting that several Polymarket accounts reportedly made about $1 million by wagering just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran.

Polymarket faces insider trading suspicions

Polymarket has faced multiple insider trading allegations after several traders placed unusually well-timed bets on major events. A small group of crypto wallets recently made more than $1.2 million betting on a market tied to an onchain investigation into DeFi platform Axiom shortly before blockchain investigator ZachXBT published claims about insider trading linked to the project.

In a separate incident last month, another Polymarket account reportedly earned about $400,000 after placing a large wager on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro shortly before the news became public, further raising questions about whether some traders had advance information.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/07/2026 - 17:15

GLP-1 Feud Ends: NOVO, HIMS Join Forces (Again) To Sell Obesity Drugs

The epic, months-long GLP-1 feud between Novo Nordisk and telehealth firm Hims & Hers Health appears to be coming to a surprising end, with both companies reportedly set to announce, as soon as Monday, a new partnership that would allow the Danish drugmaker to sell Wegovy through HIMS' platform.

Bloomberg published the report late Friday, stating:

Novo Nordisk A/S plans to sell its weight-loss drugs on Hims & Hers Health Inc.'s platform, according to a person familiar with the matter...

...

Novo and Hims plan to announce a new partnership as soon as Monday, according to the person, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The two companies had a similar agreement last year, but Novo abruptly scrapped it after Hims refused to stop marketing and selling copycat medications.

The move is very surprising because NOVO sued HIMS just last month over a copycat Wegovy pill and patent infringement tied to Ozempic and Wegovy. Even the head of the FDA recently stated that telehealth firms were put on notice about copycat GLP-1s.

"There is no other way to describe the Hims news as both a surprise and an unabashed positive for Hims' stock," Leerink Partners analyst Michael Cherny wrote in a note to clients.

NOVO ADRs rose 2% in after-hours trading on Friday following the report, while HIMS shares surged nearly 40%. The new partnership would effectively end the GLP-1 feud between the two companies.

"We get the rationale for Novo here," Cherny added. "The company has been looking to add as many partners as it can to drive market reach, including other digital pharmacies and CVS."

The rationale for why the feud ended will likely be explained by NOVO executives and/or HIMS executives on Monday morning, if the Bloomberg report is correct. It's clear that the feud's end was likely tied to the terrible year-to-date performance of both companies (data below as of close on Friday).

NOVO's willingness to partner with HIMS (again) comes as its new GLP-1 pill has yet to help it gain the momentum to acquire enough new market share to reverse the stock plunge amid a highly competitive obesity space. Additionally, the new CEO is under pressure from investors to reverse the multi-year stock plunge and to offer hope amid a recently dismal outlook for the year.

Also this week, Novo's biggest bull, Goldman analyst James Quigley, downgraded the stock from "Buy" to "Hold." Quigley's full note can be viewed here and is available to pro subs. How long until Quigley reverses this call?

With the feud now apparently over, here is our past reporting:

• "Big Miss": Wall Street Disappointed After Dismal Novo Nordisk GLP-1 Sales Outlook, Shares Plunge

• GLP-1 Feud: HIMS Fires Back At Novo Nordisk, Slams Lawsuit As "Blatant Attack" By Big Pharma

• "Worst-Case Scenario": Novo Nordisk Plunges After Next-Gen Obesity Drug Falls Short Of Lilly Rival

• Novo Nordisk Extends Slide After Announcing Price-Cuts For Blockbuster Obesity Drugs

• Novo Nordisk Finally Catches Bid After FDA Warns Telehealth Companies

We noted on X:

And Round trip

Novo and Hims End Feud, Will Sell Obesity Drugs Together

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 7, 2026

It's worth noting that HIMS' float is 39.65% short, or 81 million shares.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/07/2026 - 16:45

Trump Announces Military Coalition With Latin American Leaders To Eradicate Cartels

Authored by Emel Akan and T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

U.S. President Donald Trump on March 7 welcomed his Latin American allies to Florida for a summit focused on addressing regional issues and announced a new military coalition to combat drug cartels in the Western Hemisphere.

“On this historic day, we come together to announce a brand new military coalition to eradicate the criminal cartels plaguing our region,” Trump said as he began his remarks at the summit.

He said that the new partnership, called the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition, will leverage military resources, including the possible use of missiles, to combat the cartels.

The heads of state of Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, and Trinidad and Tobago attended today’s summit, the White House said.

The event, called the Shield of the Americas Summit, is taking place at Trump National Doral Club in Miami and is the first such regional meeting to bring together, as the State Department described, “like-minded allies” in the Western Hemisphere.

“We’re going to be doing some incredible things together,” Trump told the leaders.

All countries in attendance are governed by right-wing or center-right parties, while left-leaning governments such as Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico did not participate in the summit.

On March 5, Trump announced that outgoing Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem will lead the effort as special envoy for the Shield of the Americas.

During his remarks, Trump criticized previous U.S. administrations for abandoning the Western Hemisphere.

“They went so far away. They went to these faraway places where they weren’t even wanted,” Trump said.

The Donroe Doctrine

In its national security strategy released in November 2025, the Trump administration made the Western Hemisphere its top priority, stating that it was a “great American strategic mistake of recent decades” to allow “non-Hemispheric competitors” to take hold in the region.

The Trump administration compared its new policy to the Monroe Doctrine of 1823, a U.S. policy that told European powers to stay out of the Americas.

After that, some media outlets began calling it the “Donroe Doctrine,” and the Trump administration adopted the term.

“It is a doctrine we will not allow hostile foreign influence to gain a foothold in this hemisphere that includes the Panama Canal,” Trump said without citing China during his speech.

Over the last two decades, China has become a dominant force in Latin America and the Caribbean, with trade surpassing $500 billion in 2024. In countries such as Brazil and Peru, China has replaced the United States as a key trading partner.

In recent years, more than 20 Latin American and Caribbean countries have joined Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative. As a result, China has secured hundreds of infrastructure projects, gaining control of assets, including ports, throughout the region.

In January, U.S. forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, effectively ending Venezuela’s relationship with China. Last week, Trump suggested that Cuba might be next.

“Cuba’s at the end of the line,” Trump said at the event, adding that the regime in Havana is negotiating with him and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

“But, our focus right now is on Iran,” Trump said.

The summit comes amid a tense geopolitical backdrop, with the conflict in Iran entering its second week.

On Feb. 28, Iran’s Islamic leader, Ali Khamenei, and dozens of top leadership figures were killed in the U.S.–Israeli joint military operation. Since then, Tehran has launched a series of retaliatory attacks across the region.

The Hezbollah terrorist group, an Iran proxy, has networks in Latin America and, for years, used the Western Hemisphere for money laundering, fundraising, and terrorism.

US Offers Military Training

During the event, Trump signed a proclamation formally launching the new military coalition.

“Every leader here today is united in the conviction that we cannot and will not tolerate the lawlessness in our hemisphere any longer,” Trump said.

“You have some great police, but they threaten your police, they scare your police,” Trump added, referring to drug cartels.

“You’re going to use your military. In many cases, our forces have already been working closely with yours, and the United States looks forward to deepening and expanding that cooperation in the months ahead.”

U.S. Southern Command announced recently that Ecuadorian and U.S. military forces conducted joint operations against “designated terrorist organizations” in Ecuador as part of the U.S. effort to fight narco-terrorism.

The proclamation states that the United States will train and mobilize the militaries of partner nations to help dismantle cartels.

According to the proclamation, the United States and its allies should prevent external threats, including malign foreign influences from outside the Western Hemisphere.

Seventeen countries are signatories to this partnership.

The leaders attending the Miami summit are Javier Milei, president of Argentina; Rodrigo Paz Pereira, president of Bolivia; Jose Antonio Kast, president-elect of Chile; Rodrigo Chaves Robles, president of Costa Rica; Luis Rodolfo Abinader Corona, president of the Dominican Republic; Daniel Roy Gilchrist Noboa Azín, president of Ecuador; Nayib Bukele, president of El Salvador; Mohamed Irfaan Ali, president of Guyana; Nasry “Tito” Asfura, president of Honduras; José Raúl Mulino Quintero, president of Panama; Santiago Peña, president of Paraguay; and Kamla Persad-Bissessar, prime minister of Trinidad and Tobago.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/07/2026 - 16:15

Stablecoins And The Rebasement Of The Dollar

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The “fiat is dying” argument has become a catchphrase narrative among digital asset bulls, gold bugs, and cryptocurrency advocates. That narrative’s core is that central banks have printed vast amounts of money. The “money printing” has led to currency debasement and rendered the U.S. dollar obsolete. We discussed this “debasement” narrative previously.

The narrative is seductive: inflation is out of control, the government is printing money, and the dollar is on its last legs. But while there are real risks to watch, most headlines sell fear rather than fact. It’s striking, and those selling gold, silver, or other doomsday assets often use it to scare individuals into taking action. One of their favorite charts used to make the “debasement” case is the classic graph showing that the U.S. dollar has lost 90% of its purchasing power since 1966.”

But here’s the thing: that chart doesn’t show debasement. It only reflects inflation, a well-understood and largely expected outcome in a growing economy. Prices rise over time because demand increases due to population growth, rising incomes, and growing consumption. This is especially true in a post-industrial, service-driven economy that incentivizes credit expansion and capital investment. In other words, it’s not the dollar losing value; it’s the economy expanding.

What those promoting the “debasement” argument misunderstand is how economics and modern inflation work. What the chart shows, in today’s economy, is only the loss of purchasing power of idle, or uninvested, dollars. Dollars that sit uninvested lose value relative to inflation over time. That is not a collapse of fiat currency. It is a signal to put capital to work. While the “gold bugs” argue that gold protects against debasement (i.e., inflation), which is true, so do 3-month T-bills and US Treasury bonds on a real, inflation-adjusted, total return basis. However, that same $1 invested in the S&P 500 index was by far the best protector of the purchasing power of the U.S. Dollar

Most importantly, the term “debasement” does not refer to the collapse of currency. It is only a “reflection of inflation on uninvested dollars.” Inflation erodes purchasing power if income and returns do not keep pace. A $100 bill in your pocket today buys less than it did in 2010, only because the general price level of goods and services purchased in an expanding economy rises over time. That effect is real, but it is a natural consequence of economic activity and monetary policy interacting with growth, not a structural collapse of confidence.

In reality, the dollar remains dominant. As we discussed in depth in “The Dollar’s Death Is Greatly Exaggerated:”

• Roughly 80 percent of global transactions use the U.S. dollar as the unit of account or settlement.

• The U.S. dollar still accounts for nearly 60 percent of global foreign-exchange reserves held by central banks.

• There is no alternative currency or asset with the depth, liquidity, and institutional trust of the U.S. dollar.

These facts contradict the idea that the world is abandoning fiat currencies or the U.S. dollar. The narrative that the dollar is dying ignores the overwhelming evidence of continued international demand and use, which is why foreign buying of US Treasuries has surged to a record.

The Illusion of Escape

Individuals who argue that investors are buying gold or Bitcoin by clinging to the “debasement” narrative are either intentionally trying to deceive others or are ignorant of how the monetary system, and the fundamental unit of pricing, exchange, and settlement, works in the modern economy.

We absolutely agree that investors should invest their “idle” dollars into “risk assets” like bonds, gold, stocks, or Bitcoin to protect their savings from inflation over time. However, the gains in those assets that rise in nominal terms only reflect shifts in relative valuation, not an abandonment of the dollar itself. Furthermore, while those buying into “debasement” fears, mostly due to headlines rather than the facts, seek so‑called “safe havens,” by buying Bitcoin or gold, thinking they are abandoning “fiat” money.

However, such is not the case as these assets are still priced and settled in dollars. Bitcoin trades in USD pairs, and gold’s global market price is quoted in dollars. When holders want to spend or transact outside the digital asset context, they must convert back into the dollar system. The belief that one can truly escape fiat is a philosophical idea. In practical terms, value transfer and utility still revolve around dollars. As shown above, the absolute best way to protect your purchasing power from “debasement” has been the US stock market.

While the “debasement” narrative often claims that US Treasuries are undesirable relics of a failing system, the reality is the opposite. US Treasuries remain the most liquid, trusted financial instruments on the planet. They are central to global interest rate benchmarks, risk‑free rate calculations, collateral markets, and international reserves.

Furthermore, a new development in today’s economy is about to make the US Dollar even more dominant: USD Stable Coins.

USD Stablecoins and Why They are Needed

As explained, the US Dollar is, and will remain, the backbone of global finance. That won’t change in the near or distant future, primarily because there are no realistic alternatives. However, the rise of USD stablecoins will likely cement that dominance even further.

Currently, nearly 99 percent of fiat‑backed stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, as the US dollar dominates global foreign exchange reserves. The dollar’s share of global reserves continues to outweigh other major currencies combined, demonstrating that sovereign confidence in USD persists even amid inflation concerns. More notably, USD Stable Coins reflect the dollar’s strength, not its demise.

So, what are USD Stablecoins? They are digital tokens designed to maintain a 1:1 peg to the US dollar. Unlike volatile cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin or Ether, which can swing wildly in price, stablecoins offer price stability by holding reserves of high‑quality liquid assets. The largest examples are Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC, which together account for over 90 percent of the USD stablecoin market. For context, as of late 2025, Tether (the issuer of the USDT stablecoin) held over $135 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, ranking it 17th globally among holders of U.S. sovereign debt. Tether’s holdings exceed those of South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Germany, and the UAE.

Here is why this is critical to the “death of the dollar” narrative.

USD Stablecoins operate on blockchain networks, enabling real‑time settlement and global transfer of digital dollars without traditional banking intermediaries. This capability is especially valuable for cross-border transactions, remittances, and markets with less developed banking infrastructure. The International Monetary Fund notes that while most current stablecoin turnover is tied to crypto trading, cross‑border flows are rapidly growing, suggesting future use in broader financial systems. As noted by Chainstack:

“Stablecoins have moved into mainstream finance, linking bank systems with digital asset networks. Dollar-pegged tokens already move volumes on par with major payment networks, with transactions rivaling those of ACH, Visa, and PayPal. In mid-2025, the supply of stablecoins crossed $250B, reflecting demand for quicker, always-on payments.”

While transaction volume still remains very small (about 1% of the current global cross-border payment volume, a $2 quadrillion annual market, there are several reasons why many expect the USD Stable Coin market to grow substantially in the future.

These use cases appeal to global finance as it modernizes payment systems. If USD Stable Coins realize broader adoption, they could become core infrastructure for digital money flows, making US Treasuries even more important to the global financial system.

How USD Stablecoins Could Make US Treasuries Even More Important

The presence of these assets in USD Stablecoin reserves underscores that the digital dollar infrastructure is intertwined with US sovereign debt markets rather than outside them. As the USD Stable Coin market grows, its relationship with US Treasuries could become more significant as issuers must hold liquid, low‑risk assets to maintain dollar pegs and meet regulatory and market expectations. Because short‑term Treasuries are widely accepted collateral and deeply liquid, they are a natural choice.

Regulatory developments, such as the GENIUS Act, passed in 2025, require stablecoin issuers to back their tokens with high‑quality liquid assets, such as USD or short‑dated Treasury instruments, increasing the likelihood that reserves remain closely tied to US sovereign debt. Furthermore, if and when the STABLE Act passes, it would impose additional requirements on stablecoin issuers to maintain safe, highly liquid assets as backing.

As such, Industry projections suggest the USD Stablecoin market could reach $2–$3 trillion by 2030, driven by clearer regulation and broader financial adoption. In that scenario, stablecoin reserve demand for Treasuries could become a meaningful incremental buyer in money markets, potentially supplementing traditional Treasury demand. Reuters reported that up to 80 percent of the existing stablecoin market’s reserves are in Treasury bills and repos, indicating that current reserve practices already lean heavily toward Treasuries.

Lastly, academic research suggests USD Stablecoin demand has already been large enough to influence short‑term yields. For example, one study found stablecoin purchases of Treasury bills correlated with measurable downward pressure on one‑month yields, highlighting how digital dollar reserve demand can affect real markets.

However, any discussion of USD Stablecoins must recognize the risks. Most importantly, this thesis assumes that USD stablecoins will become a broader global transaction utility. That is a “possible” future, not a certain one. Currently, high usage of USD stablecoins is concentrated in crypto trading and settlement, not in mainstream commerce or sovereign payments. Adoption depends on regulatory frameworks, institutional engagement, and global trust.

Custodial risk remains a valid concern. S&P Global Ratings recently downgraded Tether’s stability assessment, noting that only 64% of its reserves were held in short‑term US Treasuries and that transparency issues persist. This underscores the importance of clearer reporting, stronger governance, and more regulated custody solutions if stablecoins are to scale safely.

“Bitcoin represents 5.6% of USDT in circulation, exceeding the 3.9% overcollateralization margin associated with a collateralization ratio of 103.9%. A decline in the price of bitcoin or the value of other higher-risk assets could therefore reduce collateral coverage.” – S&P Global

There is also competition from central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Governments might choose their own digital money rails, which could reduce the appeal of private USD Stable Coins in certain use cases; however, even if CBDCs gain substantial traction, they will likely also be backed by US Treasuries for the reasons listed herein.

Another risk is that as demand for Treasuries rises, yields will fall. However, while issuers of USD Stable Coins would likely shift reserve composition, the underlying assets remain dollar‑linked securities. This distinction is critical, as whether stablecoin issuers hold T‑bills, repos, or other short‑term dollar assets, the peg to the dollar persists. The system will continue to operate within the dollar monetary framework, not in an alternate monetary universe.

Finally, there is ALWAYS a risk that none of this materializes at the expected scale. Regulatory setbacks, technological barriers, or shifts in macroeconomic conditions could stall growth. While the future is never certain, the framework of USD Stable Coins and the current trajectory of technological developments suggest that how we currently transact business globally will change in the near future, and, most importantly, the US dollar will be at the center of it.

Conclusion and Investment Thesis

The narrative that “fiat is dying” is not supported by the data or reality. Inflation, while real, is not debasement in the historical sense. It’s the erosion of purchasing power on uninvested dollars in an expanding economy. The U.S. dollar remains the foundation of global finance, dominating in trade, reserves, and settlement. No alternative currency, asset, or system currently matches its liquidity, institutional trust, or market depth.

The illusion that one can escape fiat by moving into gold or Bitcoin misunderstands how the monetary system works. While those assets protect savings against inflation, they are not independent of the fiat currency system, as they are priced, settled, and used in U.S. dollars. Any claim of “escape” is more ideological than practical.

What’s emerging now is not the death of the dollar, but its “rebasement,” through the transformation of how it circulates, settles, and functions through digital infrastructure. USD Stable Coins are not a threat to the U.S. monetary system; rather, they are an extension of it. By facilitating real-time digital payments on blockchain networks while holding reserves in U.S. Treasuries and cash equivalents, USD stablecoins reinforce the dollar’s central role.

If USD stablecoins mature into a mainstream transaction utility, something that remains a forward-looking assumption, the demand for U.S. Treasuries could increase significantly. With a projected market size of $2–$3 trillion by 2030, stablecoin issuers could become significant buyers of US Treasuries. Such would deepen liquidity, support lower yields, and embed Treasury instruments even further into the plumbing of global finance.

But investors must recognize the risks. Stablecoin adoption is not a guarantee. Regulatory frameworks could stall. Custodial risks remain, particularly with non-transparent issuers. Central bank digital currencies may create competition. And if USD Stable Coins fail to expand beyond trading use cases, their impact will remain limited.

Still, the investment thesis is compelling:

• US Treasuries remain critical. Continued and diversified demand, from both traditional buyers and digital dollar issuers, supports their role as a core asset.

• USD stablecoin infrastructure offers opportunities for firms that provide custody, liquidity, and regulatory-compliant digital payment rails. (CRCL, COIN, PYPL, FI, V, and MA)

• Banks and fintechs positioned at the intersection of blockchain settlement and fiat compliance may become integral to the rebasement architecture. (JPM, BK, C, SQ, and Stripe)

The dollar is not dying. It’s evolving. Notably, USD Stable Coins may serve as the bridge connecting the analog financial world to its digital future. The regulatory and technological framework is evolving. And the future of USD Stablecoins has the full weight of U.S. sovereign credit behind it. For investors willing to bet on that evolution, the opportunity lies in understanding the future of the dollar.

It’s not its destruction, but the digitization of dollar dominance.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/07/2026 - 15:15

Companies Report Raging Inflation, Except In Wages & Rents

Authored by Wolf Richter via Wolf Street,

Manufacturers reported that the costs of health insurance for employees shot up by 14.2% on average; service firms reported an average increase of 12.9%, according to a report by the New York Fed based on a survey of companies in the New York-Northern New Jersey region.

These are averages, but “some firms reported increases of between 25% and 50% when they renewed their coverage,” the report said.

Manufacturers and service firms both reported that the costs of utilities jumped by about 8.5% on average. About one-fifth of the companies reported increases of 20% or more. “Indeed, sharply rising utilities costs in some areas have been tied to the explosive growth of AI-related data centers,” the report said.

For service firms, the third worst cost increases were in business insurance, which jumped by 6.8%. This includes liability, property, auto, and workers’ compensation insurance.

For manufacturers, business insurance increases were the fourth-worst, with an average increase of 7.4%.

Nearly one in ten of these companies reported massive spikes of 20% or more in business insurance costs.

For manufacturers, the third-worst increases were goods and material inputs, which jumped by 8.0%. They reported substantial increases in the costs of tariffed inputs, such as aluminum, steel, equipment, electrical supplies, auto parts, coffee, and cocoa, etc.

For service firms, cost increases of goods and material inputs averaged 5.5%.

“A greater exposure to tariffs may be part of the reason manufacturing firms faced a sharper increase in goods and materials costs” than service firms, the report said.

These are very serious cost increases.

The Producer Price Index (PPI), which track prices paid by companies, has also shown sharply accelerating cost increases across a wide range of industries, with big price increases for both services (which dominate the PPI) and goods. The price increases in goods were driven by companies shuffling the costs of the tariffs around to each other, but they’re having trouble passing them on to consumer-facing companies, which are having trouble passing them on to consumers without losing sales.

But wages increased by only 3.4% at both service firms and manufacturers, amid indications that soaring employee health insurance costs – average annual premium for employer-sponsored family health insurance rose to about $27,000, according to the NY Fed – were putting downward pressure on wage growth.

“Businesses providing insurance to their workers indicated that absent these cost increases, they would have raised wages by roughly an additional percentage point, on average, (so an overage by 4.4%), suggesting that rising health insurance costs resulted in a drag on wage growth for workers at these firms,” the report said.

But increases of rent & lease payments were relatively modest at 2.2% for service firms and 1.8% for manufacturers – thanks to the depression in Commercial Real Estate.

This chart shows the cost increases by category for service firms. Note, business insurance in third position (+6.8%):

This chart shows the cost increases by category for manufacturers. Note, goods & material inputs in third position (+8.0%), and business insurance in fourth position:

The report also pointed out that service firms and manufacturers were impacted differently by these cost increases:

“For example, utilities and materials inputs would represent a larger share of costs for manufacturers compared to, say, a consulting firm, where labor costs would have more of an impact. Thus, cost increases for any category could have more of an effect on some firms than others.”

Costs overall for service firms jumped by 7% in 2025, an acceleration from the 5% increase a year earlier.

Costs overall for manufacturers jumped by 8.5%, a hot acceleration from the 5% increase a year earlier.

These are just indications based on companies in the New York and Northern New Jersey region, and not national indications. Firms in other parts of the US may experience cost factors that are somewhat different, such as the average increase in the costs of utilities, which are the newest hot button in many places.

So inflation is raging beneath the consumer-level surface again. It has also shown up in the GDP inflation adjustments: The Price Index for Gross Domestic Purchases, which reflects inflation adjustments in GDP except for imports – so a measure of overall domestic inflation for consumers, businesses, and governments – jumped by 3.7% in Q4, the worst in three years.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/07/2026 - 13:15

 

 

This week, I speak with Ed Perks, president of Franklin Advisers, Inc. and chief investment officer of Franklin Income Investors. We discuss income based investment compared to equities, along with overall portfolio strategy. We also discuss the evolving pitch for private credit.

Ed explains how he became interested in finance when he took his first investment class with the legendary David Swensen of Yale’s endowment.

A list of his current reading is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Monday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (video), YouTube (audio), and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

 

 

 

Current Reading/Favorite Books

 

 

Books Barry Mentioned

 

 

 

The post MiB: Ed Perks, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Income Investors / President, Franklin Advisers appeared first on The Big Picture.

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U.S. Military-Industrial Complex Agrees To Quadruple Bomb Production As Operation Epic Fury Rages On

U.S. Central Command said late Friday on X that U.S. forces struck 3,000 IRGC targets with air-delivered munitions during the first week of Operation Epic Fury, signaling that the campaign is only intensifying as it moves into next week.

U.S. forces have struck over 3,000 targets in the first week of Operation Epic Fury, and we are not slowing down. pic.twitter.com/Nqn30feTQA

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 7, 2026

President Trump wrote on Truth Social Friday that he would not accept a negotiated end to the war with Iran, suggesting the conflict could drag on for some time. "There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!" he said.

We have reported that U.S. inventories of some critical munitions are running low, with U.S. forces scrambling for supplies of key air-defense interceptors as IRGC missiles and drones continue to target American and allied bases across Gulf states.

Dwindling supplies of critical munitions are being amplified by Ukraine's continued need for interceptors amid relentless Russian missile and drone barrages, a major problem that likely prompted President Trump to host top U.S. defense manufacturers to discuss accelerating missile and bomb production.

"We just concluded a very good meeting with the largest U.S. Defense Manufacturing Companies where we discussed Production and Production Schedules," Trump said on Truth Social late Friday afternoon.

Trump said the CEOs of BAE Systems, Boeing, Honeywell Aerospace, L3Harris Missile Solutions, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Raytheon were all in attendance and "agreed to quadruple" weapons production.

"They have agreed to quadruple Production of the 'Exquisite Class' Weaponry in that we want to reach, as rapidly as possible, the highest levels of quantity. Expansion began three months prior to the meeting, and the plants and Production of many of these Weapons are already underway," the President said.

"We have agreed to quadruple critical munitions production," LMT wrote on X shortly after the meeting.

We have agreed to quadruple critical munitions production. As a result of President @realDonaldTrump's leadership, we began this work months ago with @SecWar Hegseth and Deputy Secretary Feinberg. https://t.co/TPypJRQhEq

— Lockheed Martin (@LockheedMartin) March 6, 2026

As the conflict is set to drag on for weeks and weapons production ramps up, the Goldman Sachs index for U.S. defense firms is primed for a breakout. One reason the breakout could occur is USCENTCOM's X post, which reads "We Are Not Slowing Down."

Our defense pick since May 24, 2025, has been L3Harris, another defense firm that attended the meeting. Nearly a year ago, we outlined that L3Harris was a play on the "U.S. Hemispheric Defense Theme." Since then, the stock is up more than 50%.

What is clear to traders is that the moment Trump signals Iran is prepared to surrender, defense stocks and crude are likely to plunge as war risk premiums implode.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/07/2026 - 11:05

British Lawmaker's Husband Arrested On Suspicion Of Spying For China

Weeks after China's mega-embassy opened in London (the one that's right next to all of their tappable communications cables), the husband of Labour Party whip Joani Reid was arrested over Chinese espionage concerns, prompting the lawmaker to step aside amid ongoing probes.

A member of the Metropolitan Police patrols the Oxford Street retail district in London on Oct. 2, 2025. Leon Neal/Getty Images

Reid's membership in the party is now under suspension while she remains an elected lawmaker, as her husband, 39-year-old David Taylor, was one of three men arrested on Wednesday under the National Security Act. The men allegedly assisted a Chinese intelligence agency. 

In addition to Taylor, former Labour Party press officer Matthew Aplin and former Welsh government special advisor Steve Jones were identified as the other two who were arrested.  

As the Epoch Times notes further, Reid stressed that she’s not under investigation and that neither she nor her children are involved in her husband’s business activities.

“I have done nothing wrong. I ⁠love ​my country,” she said in a statement, noting she has not seen anything to make her suspect her husband has “broken any law.”

She described the suspension as voluntary.

“This week ​has been ​the worst ⁠of my life,” she said.

Chinese espionage concerns have grown in the country recently, with domestic intelligence agency MI5 warning the country’s politicians that they are targets of Chinese agents. On the same day of the trio’s arrests, two other men—a Hong Kong police superintendent and a UK border official—went on trial on charges of spying on the Hong Kong diaspora in the country.

The constituency offices of Joani Reid, the Scottish Labor MP for East Kilbride and Strathaven, in East Kilbride, Scotland, on March 4, 2026. Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Authorities on March 4 also raided the house of a veteran British journalist over the latest spying case.

The journalist, Martin Shipton, described loud banging that woke him up early in the morning.

In a piece for Nation.Cymru, a Welsh news service, Shipton recalled going on an all-expense-paid trip with Taylor to Hong Kong at Taylor’s invitation. The trip happened about three years ago and lasted around a week, funded by a Chinese think tank that advised the top Chinese leader on international relations, he said. He emphasized that he was not under arrest and that he voluntarily gave a statement to the police about the trip.

At the House of Commons chamber, UK Minister of State for Security Dan Jarvis expressed alarm over “an increasing pattern of covert activity from Chinese state-linked actors targeting UK democracy,” whether it be gathering intelligence on policymaking or active interference in governance.

British officials have raised strong concerns with their Chinese counterparts in both London and Beijing, he said.

Multiple local lawmakers took the occasion to highlight security risks they saw with plans of a new, expanded Chinese embassy that their government greenlit in January.

“The Chinese only represent strength, and for them everything is transactional,” Conservative lawmaker Edward Leigh said.

He called on the UK authorities to summon the Chinese ambassador over the “intolerable” actions.

“You cannot build this mega-embassy in just about the most sensitive site in London while you behave like this,” he said.

In the United States, Chairman of the House Select Committee on the CCP Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) echoed the view.

He noted another Chinese spy trial in London last fall, which collapsed before it began because the government failed to provide evidence that China represents a national security threat.

“The British government’s failure to properly prosecute alleged spies last fall, coupled with its approval of China’s mega embassy, only emboldens the CCP’s espionage activities in the UK,” Moolenaar said.

He urged the UK to rescind the Chinese mega embassy approval and prosecute the cases thoroughly.

“As one of our closest security partners with access to American intelligence on China, the UK’s commitment to protecting sensitive information must be beyond doubt,” he said.

Reid’s office didn’t respond to a query from The Epoch Times by publication time.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/07/2026 - 10:30