Individual Economists

Oklahoma Requests Soda, Candy Be Excluded From Food Stamp Purchases

Zero Hedge -

Oklahoma Requests Soda, Candy Be Excluded From Food Stamp Purchases

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

Oklahoma has become the latest state to request federal permission to exclude soft drinks and candy from the list of items that can be purchased through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), commonly known as food stamps, Gov. Kevin Stitt announced on June 26.

Stitt made the announcement during an event at the state Capitol, alongside Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., as part of his “Make Oklahoma Healthy Again” (MOHA) campaign.

According to Stitt’s office, the campaign is a state-level extension of the national Make America Healthy Again movement championed by President Donald Trump and Kennedy.

“For far too long, we have settled for food that has made us sicker as a nation,” said Stitt. “In Oklahoma, we’re choosing common sense, medical freedom, and personal responsibility.”

Stitt said Oklahoma formally submitted the federal waiver to the Department of Agriculture amid growing bipartisan concern about the link between processed food consumption and chronic illnesses.

The move means Oklahoma joins a growing list of states seeking to remove the sugary items from the federal program that helps more than 42 million low-income Americans pay for food each month.

The governors of Arkansas and Indiana each submitted waivers on April 15, citing efforts to reduce chronic disease and ensure taxpayer funds in federal food assistance programs are used to help low-income Americans afford nutritious food.

Iowa and Nebraska have also submitted similar requests, while West Virginia and Utah have begun the process of pursuing similar changes to their SNAP program.

The American Beverage Association, a trade group whose members include producers and bottlers of soft drinks such as The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, and Keurig Dr Pepper, has consistently opposed the move, writing in an April statement that such waivers “won’t make an ounce of difference on health.”

The group pointed to data showing that obesity has skyrocketed in the past two decades while beverage calories per serving have dropped by 42 percent.

Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that approximately one in five American children and adolescents are obese, while 40 percent of school-age children and adolescents have at least one chronic health condition.

A 2016 report from the USDA showed that soft drinks were the number one food commodity by expenditure in the SNAP program.

The waivers come after Trump signed an executive order in February establishing the “Make America Healthy Again” commission as part of wider efforts to tackle America’s escalating health crisis.

The commission, which is chaired by Kennedy, is tasked with investigating and addressing the “root causes” of the crisis, with an initial focus on childhood chronic diseases. It must also produce a strategy, based on the findings of its assessment, to improve the health of America’s children.

According to the order, America’s health care system is largely focused on treating chronic illnesses instead of preventing them, which has led to a growing health crisis with serious economic and national security consequences.

As a result, Americans are becoming sicker and plagued by illnesses that the country’s medical system isn’t addressing effectively, the order says.

Speaking at the Oklahoma state Capitol, Kennedy said that if Americans want to drink a bottled soda, “you should be able to have that right,” however, he added that the federal government “should not be paying for it with taxpayer money.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 15:05

Q2 GDP Tracking: Moving Down, Still Wide Range

Calculated Risk -

There will be additional trade related distortions in Q2 boosting GDP.

From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down one-tenth to +2.5% q/q saar. [June 27th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.9% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales estimate stands at 0%. [June 27th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.9 percent on June 27, down from 3.4 percent on June 18. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, an increase in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth from 2.07 percentage points to 3.49 percentage points was more than offset by a decrease in the nowcasted GDP growth contribution of inventory investment from -0.42 percentage points to -2.22 percentage points. [June 27th estimate]

Newsom Files $787M Lawsuit Against Fox News Alleging It Lied About His Call With Trump

Zero Hedge -

Newsom Files $787M Lawsuit Against Fox News Alleging It Lied About His Call With Trump

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has filed a $787 million lawsuit against Fox News claiming the company defamed him through its coverage of a phone call between the governor and President Donald Trump.

“No more lies,” Newsom wrote on social media platform X on June 27, confirming news of the lawsuit. “I’m suing Fox News for $787 million.”

The governor seeks damages for what he claims were lies about a phone call with the president. He has also asked the court for an order to stop Fox News from broadcasting or posting segments that say Newsom lied about the call.

Newsom also sent a letter to Fox News, demanding that it issue a retraction and that host Jesse Walters issue an on-air apology about the call.

If the news company and Walters meet those conditions, Newsom will drop the lawsuit.

Newsom’s latest legal action against Trump was done in a personal capacity, one of his official spokespersons, Brandon Richards, told The Epoch Times.

Rumors of a possible presidential run for Newsom have swirled in recent years, though he has denied any intention of entering the 2028 race. However, the governor hinted at the possibility in an interview with the Wall Street Journal for a profile published on June 10.

“I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path that I could see unfold,” he said.

Fox News reported earlier this month that Newsom had lied when he claimed he did not get a call from Trump.

Trump shared with Fox News an alleged screenshot of a call the president said he had with the governor about the Los Angeles riots, dated 1:23 a.m. on June 7, that lasted 16 minutes.

“There was no call. Not even a voicemail,” Newson wrote in a June 10 post on X.

Fox News did not immediately return a request for comment.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 14:25

Nestle To Stop Using Artificial Dyes By Mid-2026

Zero Hedge -

Nestle To Stop Using Artificial Dyes By Mid-2026

It's another resounding success for the MAHA movement that has left us thinking why on Earth were these steps not taken any sooner. And of course, we know the answer: the food lobby that RFK and his administration has been hell bent on not taking their cues from. 

Nestlé announced Wednesday it will remove artificial colors from its U.S. food and beverage products by mid-2026, according to CBS.

“We are always looking for different ways to offer great tasting, compelling choices for our consumers. As their diverse dietary preferences and nutritional needs evolve, we evolve with them,” said Nestlé U.S. CEO Marty Thompson. “Serving and delighting people is at the heart of everything we do and every decision that we make,” he added.

The company said it has gradually eliminated synthetic dyes over the past decade, with 90% of its U.S. portfolio already dye-free. However, some products like Nesquik Banana Strawberry milk still contain Red 3.

Nestlé previously pledged to remove artificial dyes in 2015 but did not fully follow through.

CBS writes that other major food companies are making similar moves. Kraft Heinz and General Mills both announced plans last week to eliminate artificial dyes from U.S. products by 2027. General Mills also aims to remove them from cereals and all K–12 school foods by mid-2026.

Public and regulatory pressure is growing. A recent AP-NORC poll shows about two-thirds of Americans support removing dyes and added sugars from processed foods. California and West Virginia have banned artificial dyes in school meals, and Texas will require a new warning label starting in 2027 for foods with ingredients "not recommended for human consumption" in Australia, Canada, the EU, or the U.K.

Federal oversight is increasing as well. In January, just before President Trump took office, Red 3 was banned from food due to cancer concerns. In April, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said the agency would seek to phase out synthetic dyes by the end of 2026, relying largely on voluntary action from the food industry.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 14:05

Loonie Tumbles As Trump Suddenly 'Terminates' All Trade Talks With Canada

Zero Hedge -

Loonie Tumbles As Trump Suddenly 'Terminates' All Trade Talks With Canada

US stocks and the Canadian dollar are sliding after President Trump announces on TruthSocial that the US is terminating all trade discussions with his northern neighbor due to Carney putting a tax on US tech firms (like Europe):

"We have just been informed that Canada, a very difficult Country to TRADE with, including the fact that they have charged our Farmers as much as 400% Tariffs, for years, on Dairy Products, has just announced that they are putting a Digital Services Tax on our American Technology Companies, which is a direct and blatant attack on our Country.

They are obviously copying the European Union, which has done the same thing, and is currently under discussion with us, also.

Based on this egregious Tax, we are hereby terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada, effective immediately.

We will let Canada know the Tariff that they will be paying to do business with the United States of America within the next seven day period. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"

The reaction was swift and saw the loonie dumped...

...and US stocks rolled over...

The Canadian digital services tax, which is similar to one implemented by some other countries including the UK, is equal to 3% of the digital services revenue that a firm makes from Canadian users above C$20 million ($14.6 million) in a year.

It would apply to companies including Meta Platforms and Alphabet.

However, Canadian Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne suggested to reporters last week that the digital tax may be renegotiated as part of US-Canada trade discussions.

“Obviously, all of that is something that we’re considering as part of broader discussions that you may have,” he said.

Seems a little short-sighted given the Canadian trade flow...

The Business Council of Canada has come out and said that Carney should drop the Digital Tax... we wonder why...

Well the negotiation is on now!

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 13:57

Iran Missile Attack On US Base Marked 'Largest Patriot Missile Engagement In US History'

Zero Hedge -

Iran Missile Attack On US Base Marked 'Largest Patriot Missile Engagement In US History'

Via The Libertarian Institute

Even after Tehran informed Washington that Iran would execute a symbolic retaliatory strike on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the US military had to engage in its largest battle using Patriot missiles to date to repel the attack

On Monday, Iran fired 19 ballistic missiles at America’s largest Middle East air base. Most of the missiles were shot down by air defenses. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine told reporters, "We believe that this is the largest single Patriot engagement in US military history, and we were joined in this engagement by the Qatari Patriot crews."

Image: US Department of Defense

While Gen Caine did not disclose how many interceptors were fired, it was likely an expensive operation as each PAC-3 Patriot missile costs $4 million. Additionally, the supply of air defense is becoming increasingly limited due to the ongoing war in the Middle East and Ukraine. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Senate in May, "The Ukrainians asked for air defense systems — Patriot systems, which, frankly, we don’t have."

After Israel launched its aggressive war against Iran, Tel Aviv’s supply of interceptors quickly dwindled. Within five days of the start of the war, multiple outlets reported Tel Aviv was nearly out of Arrow-3 interceptors and only had supplies to run the Iron Dome air defense system for less than two weeks. 

By the end of the short war, Israel was forced to ration its deployment of interceptors, leaving some areas vulnerable to Iranian strikes. After the war, President Donald Trump noted that "Iran hit Israel hard."

Throughout the 12-day conflict, the US aided Israel in shooting down incoming Iranian missiles. The assistance put a strain on the Navy’s supply of interceptors.

Adm. James Kilby, the acting chief of naval operations, said while the US had enough SM-3 interceptors, they were being used “at an alarming rate” to defend Israel. 

The SM-3 can cost between $10 million and $30 million for a single missile.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 13:45

Spain Could Ruin The EU-US Trade Negotiations

Zero Hedge -

Spain Could Ruin The EU-US Trade Negotiations

By Philip Marey, Senior US strategist at Rabobank

Yesterday, the US dollar was under pressure - with EUR/USD peaking at 1.1744 - as speculation about Fed rate cuts increased after comments by Trump and reports in the media that he is considering nominating the next Fed Chair in the coming months. An early nomination could make the nominee the “de facto shadow chair” as his comments (only men are reported to be on the shortlist) would carry a lot of weight in the markets regarding monetary policy beyond May 2026 when Powell’s term expires. For more details on Powell’s succession and the concept of a shadow chair, see our article in International Banker from a few months ago. Meanwhile, there was more pushback against a July rate cut by several Fed speakers yesterday, specifically Daly, Collins, Barkin and Goolsbee.

One day after the NATO summit in The Hague, European leaders met in Brussels again. Now that President Trump has made a clear connection between NATO policy and trade negotiations, European leaders think they have earned trade concessions from the US for their increased contributions to NATO. A major problem is Spain which is not willing to help defend Europe by spending 5% of GDP, but it expects the EU to protect it from US tariffs. Whether other EU countries are happy with this double free riding remains to be seen. They just assigned a lot of money appeasing President Trump (and defending Europe from Russia) but Spain could ruin the EU-US trade negotiations. Yesterday, European leaders discussed trade concessions to the US, including lowering tariffs, reducing non-tariff barriers, buying more US products including LNG, and cooperating with the US to tackle its economic concerns with China.

In other trade news, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that a trade “deal” with China had been signed two days ago, although this appears to be essentially the truce reached last month in Geneva. He added that there are imminent plans to reach agreements with 10 major trading partners.

Meanwhile, the spinning of the Fordow attack is in full force on both sides. While the White House maintains that the nuclear facility was obliterated, Iran is downplaying the impact and both sides claim victory. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine gave a joint press conference providing more details about the air strike, but they offered no new evidence about the effectiveness of the attack.

Yesterday, the Senate Committee on Finance issued a statement that the proposed introduction of Section 899 to the Internal Revenue Code would be removed from the One Big Beautiful Bill because of a forthcoming international tax agreement announced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Section 899 would have introduced retaliatory taxes on foreign companies from countries that impose “unfair taxes” on US companies, such as undertaxed profits rules, digital services taxes, and diverted profits taxes.

“We applaud President Trump and his team for protecting the interests of American workers and businesses after years of congressional Republicans sounding the alarm on the Biden Administration’s unilateral global tax surrender under Pillar 2.  Reaching a joint understanding with the G7 means the U.S. can reclaim tens of billions of dollars that had been ceded from our tax base by Democrats’ America-Last policy. At the request of Secretary Bessent and in light of this joint understanding to preserve U.S. tax sovereignty and allow U.S. tax laws to co-exist with the Pillar 2 regime, we will remove proposed tax code Section 899 from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and we look forward to active engagement with Treasury on these important issues. We are committed to restoring Americans’ confidence in our representative government by putting America first.  Congressional Republicans stand ready to take immediate action if the other parties walk away from this deal or slow walk its implementation.”

The last sentence of the statement can be seen as a threat to foreign governments that the US Congress could still adopt Section 899 if the new international tax agreement is violated.

Meanwhile, progress of the One Big Beautiful Bill in the Senate was dealt a blow by the Senate parliamentarian. The Senate’s rules arbiter decided that several spending cuts proposed in the bill did not qualify for the reconciliation process that allows the bill to be passed with a simple majority. Republicans hope to remedy this by changing the wording and are still sticking to their self-imposed July 4 deadline to get the bill to President Trump’s desk. However, if the Senate parliamentarian is not going to be convinced, they may have to drop these spending cuts which would make it harder to reach their budget targets and meet the Independence Day deadline.

Day Ahead

In politics, the US Senate intended to start voting today on the One Big Beautiful Bill. However, this could be delayed by the procedural clash with the Senate parliamentarian. Over a month ago, the House of Representatives passed its version with a narrow 215-214 vote. When it comes to a vote, the margins in the Senate are also small. There are 53 Republican senators, but libertarian Rand Paul is expected to vote no because of the debt limit increase included in the bill. Other fiscal hawks, in particular Ron Johnson, Rick Scott, and Mike Lee are demanding more savings in the bill, such as bigger spending cuts and a faster expiration of clean-energy tax credits. However, this is a difficult balancing act for Senate Majority Leader John Thune because at the other end of the Republican spectrum, the “Medicaid moderates”, in particular Thom Tillis, Josh Hawley and Susan Collins think the bill’s Medicaid cuts are too deep. Lisa Murkowski, Jerry Moran and Jim Justice are also considered to be part of this group. Meanwhile, there is disagreement about the increase in the cap (to $40,000) on how much taxpayers can deduct from the amount they owe in federal taxes state and local taxes (SALT). This was negotiated by House Republicans from high tax states, such as California, New Jersey and New York. However, many Republican senators want to keep this at the level of the TCJA ($10,000).

Once the Senate has passed its version, the House could accept the adjusted version early next week and send the bill to President Trump who can then sign it into law by July 4, or reject it. However, the self-imposed Independence Day deadline is symbolic and there is no X-date until August at the earliest and the fiscal cliff from the income tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is at end of the year. So a modest delay would have no major consequences other than ruining Trump’s good mood after getting the royal treatment at the NATO summit in The Hague.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 13:05

SoftBank's Masayoshi Son "Ready To Hand Over Reins" As He Goes "All-In" On AI Superintelligence

Zero Hedge -

SoftBank's Masayoshi Son "Ready To Hand Over Reins" As He Goes "All-In" On AI Superintelligence

Masayoshi Son is positioning SoftBank to become the "world's top platformer" for Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), aiming to control the core architecture, compute infrastructure, and strategic partnerships that will enable ASI. Yet even as Son charts SoftBank's course for the 2030s, the 67-year-old says he's preparing to hand over the reins—though he won't name a successor until the last minute.

Bloomberg reports SoftBank's Son is preparing to step aside and will hand over leadership to an internal successor...

"I'm mentally prepared for anything, and am ready to hand over the reins at any time," Son told shareholders at a meeting in Tokyo earlier today. He added that he won't name the individual until the last minute to avoid fostering arrogance. "It's a delicate balance."

He revealed that SoftBank now controls key AI chip architecture and plans to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI. The group also recently acquired Graphcore and is in talks to buy Ampere Computing.

Son emphasized the importance of controlling AI infrastructure in a "winner-take-all" era, anchored by SoftBank's stake in chip designer Arm. He discussed plans to 'Make America Great Again' by establishing an Arizona hub modeled after China's Shenzhen, potentially in partnership with TSMC, which is investing heavily in the U.S.

"We want to become the world's top platformer for ASI," he said, adding, "I'm all in." 

Son didn't disclose a specific reason or timeline for stepping down, but with SoftBank's ability to fund bold AI bets by heavily relying on Japanese retail investors, installing younger leadership ahead of the 2030s may be a strategic move to strengthen confidence and align with a new generation of investors. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 12:45

RFK Jr. Axes All Funding For Bill Gates' Global 'Vaccine Alliance'

Zero Hedge -

RFK Jr. Axes All Funding For Bill Gates' Global 'Vaccine Alliance'

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The United States will not provide money to a global vaccine organization called Gavi until the group changes the way it responds to vaccine safety issues, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told a fundraiser for the organization on June 25.

“There’s much that I admire about Gavi, especially its commitment to making medicine affordable to all the world’s people. Gavi has done that part of its job very well,” Kennedy said in recorded remarks played at the summit.

“Unfortunately, in its zeal to promote universal vaccination, it has neglected the key issue of vaccine safety.”

The United States has provided $8 billion to Gavi since 2001. The United States is one of the organization’s largest funding sources.

That investment must be justified, according to Kennedy.

“I’ll tell you how to start taking vaccine safety seriously: Consider the best science available, even when the science contradicts established paradigms. Until that happens, the United States won’t contribute more to Gavi,” he said.

Gavi said in a statement that the group “fully concurs with the Secretary for Health and Human Services on the need to consider all available science, and remains committed to continuing an evidence-based and scientific approach to its work and investment decisions, as it always has done.”

Gavi says on its website that it helps vaccinate more than 50 percent of the children in the world against various diseases.

It said in a separate statement that it is enacting reforms, including restructuring to reduce costs.

The organization’s pledging summit took place Wednesday in Brussels. It was co-hosted by the European Union and the Gates Foundation.

The Gates Foundation said in a statement this week that it will give $1.6 billion to Gavi over the next five years, calling the alliance “one of the most effective mechanisms for delivering lifesaving vaccines to children and preventing disease in the world’s most vulnerable communities.”

The United States committed $300 million to Gavi in the funding bill for fiscal year 2025, but the Trump administration’s budget request for fiscal year 2026 does not include funding for the group.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), the top minority member on the Senate Health Committee, lamented Kennedy’s announcement during a hearing in Washington on Wednesday. He asked Susan Monarez, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, about the development.

“I believe the global health security preparedness is a critical and vital activity for the United States,” she said.

“I think vaccines save lives. I think that we need to continue to support the promotion and utilization of vaccines,” she added later, promising Sanders that if she receives confirmation, she will look into the matter.

A vaccine advisory panel whose members were all chosen by Kennedy was also meeting on Wednesday. The panel announced it would be examining the effects of the CDC’s childhood immunization schedule as well as vaccines that have not been reviewed for seven years and consider whether to change the current recommendations for Hepatitis B vaccines.

Trump previously ordered officials to withdraw from several other international groups, including the World Health Organization (WHO), over concerns about their goals.

Kennedy said after meeting with Argentinian officials in May that the United States and Argentina—both of which withdrew from WHO earlier this year—are focused on “the creation of an alternative international health system based on gold-standard science and free from totalitarian impulses, corruption, and political control.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 12:25

Heat Dome Breaks: Mid-Atlantic & Northeast See Short-Lived Relief

Zero Hedge -

Heat Dome Breaks: Mid-Atlantic & Northeast See Short-Lived Relief

After a stretch of scorching heat across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, including Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York City, much-needed relief in the form of cooler weather has descended into the area on Friday morning. Daytime highs are expected to hover near 75°F from the nation's capital up through New York City—well below the triple-digit temperatures earlier this week that sent power grids across the eastern half of the U.S. into emergencies. 

This temporary cooldown will offer relief today before temperatures climb back into the 85°F to 90°F range for the Washington metro area through the weekend. 

This week, power grids across the eastern U.S. were pushed to the brink as millions cranked up their air conditioners to survive the heat:

What was the one thing missing from this week's extreme heat dome? The usual barrage of "climate crisis" headlines from far left-leaning legacy corporate media outlets like ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, and MSNBC.

Bloomberg data show a sharp decline in climate-crisis story counts. No spike this week??

The reason may be simple: these headlines only spike when the Democratic Party is ramming through 'green' climate bills that benefit their rogue NGO industry. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 12:05

6 Americans Detained In South Korea For Trying To Send Rice, Bibles, Dollars To North

Zero Hedge -

6 Americans Detained In South Korea For Trying To Send Rice, Bibles, Dollars To North

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

Six Americans were detained in South Korea on June 27 for allegedly attempting to send thousands of plastic bottles filled with rice, U.S. dollars, and Bibles to North Korea by sea, according to police.

The group had allegedly been trying to dispatch 1,300 bottles into the sea at a border island west of the South Korean capital, Seoul, toward North Korea when they were discovered by a military official patrolling the area, a police official at the Incheon Ganghwa Police Station said.

The U.S. citizens are suspected of violating the country’s disaster and safety law in an area that was recently designated a risk zone, meaning activities deemed harmful to residents are banned, the official said.

No charges have been announced against the individuals.

“We’re investigating them through an interpreter and will decide after 48 hours whether to release them or not,” the official said.

Ganghwa Island, where the group attempted to float the bottles, has been restricted to the public since it was designated a danger zone in November 2024, according to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency.

An administrative order banning launches of anti-North Korea leaflets is also in effect in the area, the news agency reported.

Korean defectors and activists in South Korea have previously sent inflatables across the border containing leaflets critical of the communist North and leader Kim Jong Un, along with food, medicine, money, and USB sticks loaded with K-pop music videos and other content.

Legislation passed in 2020 by South Korea’s previous government, which had pushed for closer engagement with Pyongyang, made it a criminal act for civilians to send leaflets and other items to the North.

The law made leafleting a crime punishable by up to three years in prison or a fine of 30 million won (about $22,000).

In 2023, South Korea’s Constitutional Court struck down the legislation, ruling it was an excessive restriction on free speech, but said the government still had the power to keep activists in check, including through police monitoring and intervention.

The latest arrests come as South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has sought to bolster relations with neighboring North Korea since taking office earlier in June, suspending loudspeaker broadcasts that had been directed at the North in response to its alleged weapons development.

Lee has also asked activists in the South to stop launching helium balloons containing leaflets and other materials critical of Pyongyang and its leader.

Last year, North Korea said it sent balloons full of trash and manure across the border, calling them “gifts of sincerity.”

As tensions flared between the two neighbors last year, the North Korean leader said his nation should “completely eliminate“ any notion of reunification or reconciliation with the South, which he called the ”primary enemy” of his country.

He also proposed rewriting the North’s constitution to state that it could pursue “occupying, subjugating and reclaiming South Korea” in the event of a war on the Korean Peninsula.

In response, then-South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol vowed to continue to maintain firm defense readiness while warning that the North Korean regime would be severely punished if it provoked South Korea.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 11:45

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May and a Look Ahead to June Sales

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May and a Look Ahead to June Sales

A brief excerpt:
After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in May.

There were several key stories for May:

• Sales NSA are down year-over-year (YoY) through May, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995! The YoY comparisons will be easier the next several months, so sales in 2025 might be close to the level in 2024.

• Sales SA were down YoY for the 4th consecutive month and 41 of the last 45 months.

• Months-of-supply is at the highest level since 2016 (tying one month near the start of the pandemic).

• The median price is barely up YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see more price declines.

Sales at 4.03 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were above the consensus estimate; however, housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate was right on (usually very close).

Sales averaged close to 5.44 million SAAR for the month of May in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 26% below pre-pandemic levels.
...
Local Markets Closed Existing Home SalesIn May, sales in these markets were down 3.8% YoY. Last month, in April, these same markets were also down 3.8% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales in May were down 4.0% YoY NSA, so this sample is close.

Important: There were fewer working days in May 2025 (21) as in May 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was higher than for the NSA data. According to the NAR, seasonally adjusted sales were only down 0.7% YoY in May.
...
More local data coming in July for activity in June!
There is much more in the article.

NYC Mayor Eric Adams To Run For Reelection Against Rival Mamdani

Zero Hedge -

NYC Mayor Eric Adams To Run For Reelection Against Rival Mamdani

Authored by Arjun Singh via The Epoch Times,

Mayor Eric Adams launched his campaign for the November general election during a June 26 press conference on the steps of City Hall, days after state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani presumptively won the Democratic primary.

Adams, 64, was elected in 2021 as a Democrat but chose not to run in the Democratic primary amid his unpopularity among progressive voters stemming from a now-withdrawn federal indictment on bribery charges and his concurrent decision to permit U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to detain foreign nationals at the city’s Rikers Island jail.

In the primary, Mamdani, 33, an Indian-Ugandan American state assemblyman from Queens, defeated former Gov. Andrew Cuomo on a progressive platform, making him Adams’s principal opponent in the general election. The city’s progressive lean makes the GOP a nonfactor in the race.

The Adams Campaign

Adams addressed Mamdani’s victory and explained his reelection platform, which he presented as a continuation of work underway during his first term. He highlighted his actions during the COVID-19 pandemic, which was still underway when his term began.

“People were debating should our children be in school or not, but as a leader that was unwavering ... I stood strong and firm against the naysayers and said, ‘We’re going to open our schools and protect our children,’” said Adams.

He added: “Crime was moving at a higher rate. Businesses were fleeing this city. There was a lot of uncertainty. Black and brown unemployment was high. ... With my leadership, [I said] we must forge ahead a pattern and a pathway.”

Adams’s approval rating has significantly declined during his term. In March, it was 20 percent, the lowest in the 30-year-old poll’s recorded history. Additionally, 56 percent of voters wanted Adams to resign before his term concluded.

Adams stated that his term achieved several accomplishments in key areas, particularly in public safety and affordability, which are the top issues for voters.

“We took 20,000 guns off our streets ... and we prevented the loss of life of black and brown people. ... Gun arrests are at a record high, removals of guns are record high.

“Tech is booming, tourism is back, Broadway had the best 12 months in recorded history, construction is growing, and yes, Times Square is alive again,” said Adams. “We’re turning unused buildings into homes and streamlining permitting,” he said, addressing the housing crisis.

During his remarks, Adams also praised former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire owner of Bloomberg LP, who served as the city’s mayor for three terms from 2002 to 2013, and who remains popular in the city. Bloomberg, the city’s last Republican mayor who has since become a Democrat, endorsed Cuomo during the primary.

“I saw [leadership] when Mayor Bloomberg came into office. ... He turned around this city with real leadership and focus, and I knew I had to have that same leadership, and determination, and focus,” said Adams. “That’s why we’re here today ... asking for four more years,” he added, with the crowd breaking into a chant of “four more years.”

Adams said that if reelected, he would focus on reducing crime, launch a citywide mental health initiative, advance workforce development, expand housing, and clean streets.

Adams on Mamdani

Adams criticized Mamdani for having few political achievements. Adams previously served as the Borough president of Brooklyn, a New York state senator, and for 22 years in the New York City Police Department (NYPD), reaching the rank of captain.

“They have a record of tweets. I have a record on these streets,” Adams said. “They talk about problems; I fix them. ... You don’t lead this city from a soapbox.” He said Mamdani was “an assemblymember who did not pass a bill” and was promising a “fantasy state.”

Three bills sponsored by Mamdani have been signed into law during his tenure at the Legislature. Additionally, several provisions of bills that he introduced in the Assembly have been included in other legislation that eventually passed the body and were enacted.

Criticizing Mamdani’s Democratic Socialist politics, Adams said New York is “not a city of handouts” but “a city of ‘hands up.’”

“This is a city, not a socialism. ... There is no dignity in someone giving you everything for free. There’s dignity in giving you a job, so you can provide for your family,” Adams said.

“You are going to see a movement that you have never witnessed before. I told all of you, in the beginning, this was going to be the most interesting political campaign in the history of the city. It didn’t stop on June 24, it started on June 24,” he said. “I’m ready to be your mayor for another four years.”

Some protesters were constantly heckling during Adams’s remarks.

“You can call me all the names you want, but I’m only going to answer to one: Mayor Adams,” the mayor said.

Mamdani’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 11:05

Graham Breaks With Trump Over Iran Strike Effectiveness: 'I Don't Know Where The Enriched Uranium Is'

Zero Hedge -

Graham Breaks With Trump Over Iran Strike Effectiveness: 'I Don't Know Where The Enriched Uranium Is'

President Trump is not going to like this. After getting out of a classified Senate briefing on Thursday, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham's first words to the press and to the American people were that he "didn’t want people to think the problem is over, because it’s not" - in reference to the Trump-ordered B-2 bomber strikes on Iran's main nuclear and enrichment facilities.

"The real question is, have we obliterated their desire to have a nuclear weapon," Graham questioned. "I don't want people to think that the site wasn't severely damaged or obliterated. It was. But having said that, I don't want people to think the problem is over, because it's not." 

"I don’t know where the 900 pounds of enriched uranium exists, but it wasn't part of the target set for several years," Graham was quoted in the NY Times as saying.

He did try to voice acknowledgement of the official White House position, perhaps trying to keep the peace with Trump, saying "They are obliterated today but they can reconstitute."

The NY Times summarizes of where things stand, "There is confusion also about where the stockpile was originally. Mr. Trump has suggested it was at Fordo. Others have said some was at Natanz."

And further the Times writes, "The International Atomic Energy Agency has said the majority of the stockpile was at Isfahan, where Iran had reactors and other nuclear facilities that used the uranium. And some experts have suggested Iran has dispersed the stockpile."

Meanwhile, we recall President Trump's words given to our White House correspondent just one week ago...

"People have to be very careful with what they say, because their mouth can get them into a lot of trouble," he responded when asked about Graham and Pompeo being on the ground in Ukraine possibly sabotaging efforts at peace.

A number of Democratic Senators after their classified Iran briefing also had similar reactions to Graham.

"I walk away from that briefing still under the belief that we have not obliterated the program," Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut told reporters. "The president was deliberately misleading the public when he said the program was obliterated. It is certain that there is still significant capability, significant equipment that remain." 

"You cannot bomb knowledge out of existence — no matter how many scientists you kill," Murphy added. "There are still people in Iran who how to work centrifuges. And if they still have enriched uranium and they still have the ability to use centrifuges, then you're not setting back the program by years. You're setting back the program by months." 

Israel claims to have assassinated at least 14 Iranian nuclear scientists during the nearly two-weeks of bombing and sabotage operations against the Islamic Republic.

Top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, said following the intel briefing, "Listen, I hope that is the final assessment. But if not, does that end up providing a false sense of comfort to the American people?" 

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer had this to say: "What was clear is that there was no coherent strategy, no end game, no plan, no specific, no detailed plan on how Iran does not attain a nuclear weapon."

Again, Trump isn't going to be happy to see Graham siding with the Democrats on this one. But Fox too has been very skeptical, as have other conservative as well as independent outlets.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 10:45

MiB: Velina Peneva, Swiss Re Chief Investment Officer

The Big Picture -

 

 

This week, I speak with Velina Peneva, group chief investment officer at insurance giant Swiss Re. We discuss the business of reinsurance, managing risk, her career path and more.

Peneva started her career at Bain & Company in 1998 and later became Partner in 2011. While she was there, she worked with fund managers and investors, became a leader in the private equity practice in Zurich and became a member of the firm’s global investment committee. Peneva joined Swiss Re in 2017, becoming co-head of client solutions & analytics, before being named Group Chief Investment Office and member of the Group Executive Comittee in 2023.

She explains the importance of matching your assets to your future liabilities, and why liquidity and quality are so important.

A list of her current reading is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Kate Moore, Chief Investment Officer of Citi Wealth; responsible for overseeing investments, portfolio strategy and asset allocation for the trillion dollars Citi Wealth manages. Previously, she was Head of Thematic Strategy and PM for the Global Allocation Fund at BlackRock.

 

 

Favorite Books

 

 

 

 

The post MiB: Velina Peneva, Swiss Re Chief Investment Officer appeared first on The Big Picture.

The Fed's "Transitory" Mistake Is Affecting Its Outlook

Zero Hedge -

The Fed's "Transitory" Mistake Is Affecting Its Outlook

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

In 2023 and 2024, the Fed was under intense public and media scrutiny for calling the post-pandemic surge in inflation “transitory.” Critics argued that the Fed’s failure to anticipate the persistence and severity of rising prices undermined its credibility. Yet, with the benefit of hindsight and historical context, the Fed’s position wasn’t entirely misguided. Inflation proved temporary in a broader economic sense, and by 2025, the data confirmed a significant cooling of price pressures.

However, the Fed’s mistake wasn’t the “transitory” label—it was the Fed’s late response to raising interest rates and halting quantitative easing. As shown, the combined impact of the massive surge in the Government’s deficit spending (stimulus checks and infrastructure bills) and the Fed’s $120 billion monthly “quantitative easing” campaign caused a massive jump in economic growth and inflation. However, instead of cutting back on stimulus when the economy rebounded, the Fed’s mistake was keeping its “foot on the gas” for too long. These delays allowed the inflationary fire to burn hotter and longer than necessary, exacerbated by an overlooked driver: excessive government spending.

Despite the elevated levels of total economic stimulus, inflation and economic growth have subsided as the economy continues normalizing. However, to understand the Fed’s current policy risks, particularly in light of its recent warnings about tariffs, it’s essential to look back at past inflation spikes

Historical Inflation Spikes and Their Resolution

U.S. economic history offers several instructive examples of inflationary episodes and how they eventually resolved.

  • Post-WWII Inflation (1946–1948): After World War II, inflation surged to nearly 20% as price controls ended and pent-up consumer demand met constrained supply. But this spike was short-lived. As production normalized and demand stabilized, inflation quickly receded. The Fed did not need any drastic monetary tightening.

  • The 1970s Stagflation: The most notorious inflation era came during the 1970s, driven by oil shocks, wage-price spirals, and loose monetary policy. Inflation remained high for nearly a decade. It wasn’t until Paul Volcker’s aggressive interest rate hikes in the early 1980s, pushing the federal funds rate above 15%, that inflation fell, though at the cost of a deep recession.

  • Greenspan’s “Inflation Boogyman:” In the late 90s, Alan Greenspan worried that an inflation surge was coming and aggressively began to hike rates into that anticipation. The further tightening of money policy contributed to the blowup of numerous “dot.com” companies that were heavily leveraged with no revenues. Instead of rising, inflation collapsed as the “Dot.com” crash devastated the economy.

  • Post-GFC Disinflation: After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, many feared stimulus and Fed intervention would trigger inflation. Instead, the opposite occurred. Inflation remained stubbornly low for over a decade, highlighting how debt overhangs and weak demand can suppress prices even amid central bank easing.

Compared to these episodes, the COVID-driven inflation surge stands out for its rapid onset and similarly swift decline. Prices surged due to supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and historic stimulus. But by 2025, inflation is back to near-target levels. The duration of elevated inflation, from early 2021 through late 2023, was short by historical standards, and it faded as supply chains normalized and stimulus effects waned.

The historical shortcomings of the Fed’s actions, repeated policy mistakes, and flawed outlooks are clearly evident. The Fed hikes rates, creates an economic or credit-related event, and then cuts rates to fix it.

As such, investors should ask themselves why they are confident in the Fed’s current assessment of tariff-induced inflation risks.

The Fed’s Tariff Fears: Misreading the Present Through the Lens of the Past?

At the June 18, 2025, press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed concern that rising tariffs could reignite inflation. With trade policy becoming increasingly protectionist, particularly toward China and Mexico, the Fed is wary that tariffs could push up import prices and thus overall inflation. However, there’s an important distinction: inflation data from the last four months has shown no measurable impact from recent tariff actions. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has remained stable or declined, while core inflation has softened. Meanwhile, job growth has slowed, and wage gains have moderated. All classic signs of a cooling economy.

This link between the economy and inflation is evident from the Economic Composite Index, which comprises nearly 100 hard and soft data points. Following the spike in economic activity post-pandemic, economic growth continues to decline. Given that inflation is solely a function of economic supply and demand, it is unsurprising that it continues to cool.

This raises a critical policy question: Is the Fed now over-compensating on the cautious side because of its past missteps with “transitory” inflation?

If so, the risk is that the Fed may once again make another policy mistake, as has repeatedly been the case in the past. After keeping rates too low for too long post-pandemic, policymakers might be too hesitant to cut rates, fearing another inflation flare-up that may never materialize. This fear-based approach risks undermining an already slowing economy.

The Risk of Being Wrong Again: What If Tariff Inflation Never Arrives

Tariffs are designed to make foreign goods more expensive. However, supply chains and pricing are far more flexible in today’s globalized economy. If importers can shift production to tariff-free countries, renegotiate supplier contracts, or absorb costs to maintain market share, the inflationary effects of tariffs can be muted or even nonexistent. They are already doing this, as noted recently by CNN.

“The bonded warehouse route takes the opposite approach. Rather than mess with a good’s contents or move production elsewhere, businesses can import products from across the world without paying any tariffs when they enter the US — as long as they remain locked up in a special customs-regulated warehouse. Businesses can keep goods in these warehouses for up to five years without paying a tariff. They only pay the current tariff rate when they take goods out of storage. It’s a bet that tariff rates will go down in the short or medium term.”

Furthermore, companies are “reclassifying and redesigning” products to get lower tariff treatments.

“In other words, companies try to say their article or their good is something that gets low tariff treatment relative to what it might be, in essence. For example, Marvel successfully argued in court in 2003 that X-Men action figures are non-human toys (despite the premise of the franchise) rather than dolls, nearly halving their tax rate.” – NPR

Lastly, as discussed in “Tariff Risk Isn’t Inflation,” economists always forget the importance of consumer choice. The only payee of tariffs is the producers. Consumers can purchase less, delay, or exclude certain products from their consumption. To wit:

“Today, globalization and technology give consumers vast choices in the products they buy. While instituting a tariff on a set of products from China may indeed raise the prices of those specific products, consumers have easy choices for substitution. A recent survey by Civic Science showed an excellent example of why tariffs won’t increase prices (always a function of supply and demand).”

Of course, if demand drops for products with tariffs, prices will fall, reducing inflationary pressures.

Recent economic data suggests exactly that. Despite new levies on Chinese electric vehicles and Mexican steel, consumer durables and core goods prices have not moved materially higher. Businesses appear to be adapting quickly, with many shifting sourcing to Vietnam, India, or reshoring certain elements of production.

This raises the danger of a policy mismatch: If the Fed waits for inflation that doesn’t arrive, it may keep real interest rates excessively high for too long, just as it kept them too low following the pandemic. The consequences could be severe:

  • Slower Economic Growth: Elevated rates in a disinflationary environment slow investment and consumption, slowing GDP growth.

  • Labor Market Weakness: As rate-sensitive sectors (like housing and manufacturing) continue to weaken, layoffs may rise, further pressuring employment.

  • Financial Instability: Prolonged tight monetary policy increases the risk of credit defaults, especially among small businesses and lower-income households with floating-rate debt.

If the Fed is fighting a phantom threat, as Alan Greenspan did in the late 90s, and tariff-driven inflation never arrives, it could inadvertently engineer a downturn. And much like in 2021 and 2022, this would be a policy failure driven not by bad data, but by misjudging the economic environment.,

Conclusion: Learning the Right Lesson from “Transitory”

The Fed’s credibility rests not on never being wrong, but on being adaptive and forward-looking. Inflation has cooled, wage growth has moderated, and economic momentum is slowing. Now is the time for the Fed to focus not on headline fears, but on real-time data.

If tariffs have not yet translated into price increases, and employment indicators suggest slack is growing, the Fed should not delay necessary rate cuts to defend its credibility. Doing so risks repeating the mistake it made during the pandemic: ignoring the lagging effects of previous decisions.

Cutting rates too late would be just as damaging as hiking them too slowly.

The media mocked the Fed’s “transitory” narrative, but inflation was short-lived in the grand scheme. What mattered more was how long the Fed waited to act. With tariffs yet to trigger a real inflationary response and the economy showing signs of deceleration, the greater risk may be inaction, not inflation.

Investors should be alert to the Fed’s tendency to overcorrect past mistakes. Just as policy stayed too loose after COVID, it may now stay too tight for too long in 2025. Recognizing that monetary policy must adapt, not just react, will be key for policymakers and market participants navigating the road ahead.

For more in-depth analysis and actionable investment strategies, visit RealInvestmentAdvice.com. Stay ahead of the markets with expert insights tailored to help you achieve your financial goals.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 10:30

Supreme Court Slaps Down Activist Judges In Birthright Citizenship, LGBTQ Schoolbook Cases

Zero Hedge -

Supreme Court Slaps Down Activist Judges In Birthright Citizenship, LGBTQ Schoolbook Cases

Update (1057ET): The hits keep on coming out of the Supreme Court, as a second Friday opinion just backed religious parents opposed to LGBTQ+ schoolbooks, also in a 6-3 vote along ideological lines...

The case, Mahmoud v. Taylor, challenged Montgomery County Public Schools’ refusal to notify parents or allow exemptions when LGBTQ+ content was included in early-grade curricula. The decision overturns lower court rulings and is expected to have significant implications for how public schools nationwide handle religious objections to inclusive educational materials.

The case, Mahmoud v. Taylor, raised the question of whether Montgomery County Public Schools (MCPS) infringed upon the parents’ right under the First Amendment to exercise their religion when it included storybooks with LGBTQ+ characters in its curriculum without allowing families to opt out based on religious beliefs. The high court’s opinion will directly impact MCPS policies and is likely to have far-reaching effects on public schools nationwide. -Bethesda Magazine 

Justice Alito wrote in the ruling: "Parents challenging the Board’s introduction of the “LGBTQ+-inclusive” storybooks, along with its decision to withhold opt outs, are entitled to a preliminary injunction...Without an injunction, the parents will continue to suffer an unconstitutional burden on their religious exercise, and such a burden unquestionably constitutes irreparable injury." (via Curits Houck). 

Earlier, the Court blocked the ability for activist judges to unilaterally block a president's executive orders - narrowing down injunctive relief to those who filed the lawsuit, not the entire nation. 

Bad day so far for the left...

*  *  *

The Supreme Court on Friday allowed President Trump's executive order restricting birthright citizenship to go into effect in some areas of the country - blocking judges' ability to halt the president's policies nationwide.

The order, signed Trump's first day in office, curbs birthright citizenship for children born on US soil if they don't have at least one parent with permanent legal status - which quickly became a legal question surrounding the 14th Amendment's Citizenship Clause. 

The 6-3 ruling along ideological lines found that three federal district judges went too far in issuing nationwide injunctions against Trump's order. The decision hobbles a key tool used by venue-shopping Democrats and the activist judges that have been blocking Trump's path since January - with every court having found the legality of Trump's EO 'likely' unconstitutional. 

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson was specifically called out for being retarded...

That said, it doesn't definitively resolve whether Trump's restrictions on birthright citizenship are constitutional - a question which could end up in front of the Supremes down the road. It does, howeever, narrow the lower court rulings to only block Trump's order as applied to the 22 Democratic-led states, expectant mothers and immigration organizations that are suing. 

Furthermore, Justices Alito and Thomas note that the Supreme Court 'completely punted on the issue of third-party class certifications, which will be the gimmick now used to get around the universal injunction ban," according to The Federalist's Sean Davis.

The cases will now return to lower courts where they will play out as Trump's order partially goes into effect. Once the appeals courts issue their final rulings, the parties could bring the case back to the SCOTUS. 

Read the ruling below:

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 10:16

UMich Confidence Jumps As Inflation Fears Plunge Most Since 2001

Zero Hedge -

UMich Confidence Jumps As Inflation Fears Plunge Most Since 2001

Following this morning's very modest rise in Core PCE (coming just a couple of weeks after CPI disappointed the Trump Tariff infation fear-mongers once again) and a month since the UMich survey found that "Women, Democrats, & Low-Income Americans Are Out Of Their TDS-Addled Minds", and one week after Goldman finally called out the idiocy of the UMich survey, slamming its "partisanship" and the "sample design break starting from June 2024"...

... not to mention that it has been chronically wrong, warning that "Michigan inflation expectations have already risen even more than in 2022 and this time long-term expectations have risen sharply too, all before tariffs have even meaningfully boosted consumer prices" while "technicalities have exaggerated the increase in the Michigan [inflation] survey, as other survey measures and market-implied inflation compensation have not risen much at horizons beyond the next year", moments ago the final UMich survey for the month of June saw some notable revisions to the prelim prints, to wit:

The final June sentiment index increased to 60.7 from 52.2 a month earlier, according to the University of Michigan.

The 8.5-point increase was the largest since the start of 2024. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for no change from the preliminary reading of 60.5.

“The improvement was broad-based across numerous facets of the economy,’’ Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

“With the recent moderation in both tariff levels and trade policy volatility, consumers now appear to believe that their worst fears may not come to pass and have moderated their expectations accordingly.”

More notably, consumers expect prices to rise 5% over the next year, data released Friday showed. That is down slightly from the preliminary reading. It's also far better than the 6.6% registered in May - the biggest monthly improvement since 2001.

They saw costs rising at an annual rate of 4% over the next five to 10 years, also lower than a month earlier.

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, it was Democrats that eased back (very modestly) on their inflation fears (over the short term)...

Source: Bloomberg

...and over the medium term (but independents seem to have caught the 'tariff derangement syndrome)...

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, its the Democratic-run states that are seeing the highest level of inflation, so perhaps they're on to something...

Source: Bloomberg

The latest data suggest sluggish household demand, especially for services, extended into May after the weakest quarter for consumer spending since the onset of the pandemic.

“Consumer views are still broadly consistent with an economic slowdown and an increase in inflation to come,” Hsu said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 10:10

ICE, ICE Baby: Denver City Council Ends Car Theft Tracking System To Protect Illegal Immigrants

Zero Hedge -

ICE, ICE Baby: Denver City Council Ends Car Theft Tracking System To Protect Illegal Immigrants

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The Denver City Council has voted unanimously to shutter a highly successful anti-theft auto license plate tracking system. The system was not closed due to concerns about privacy or finances. It was shut down because Democratic members believed that ICE could use the data to deport illegals.

In May, the council refused to renew the $666,000 contract with Flock for camera monitors around 70 Denver intersections to screen for car theft.

That system resulted in the recovery of 170 stolen cars and 300 arrests. It is also credited with key evidence in the investigation of hit-and-run and murder cases.

However, it could also be used to assist ICE, and that is all that matters. Councilman Kevin Flynn explained it is all about Trump’s election:

“We know that it can help solve crime. But I think since maybe Jan. 20 of this year, those concerns are greatly heightened and have a new reality about them.”

Council member Sarah Parady added:

“We’re living in an era where just this last week, actually, an executive order came out instructing the Department of Justice and the FBI to look for reasons to prosecute local elected officials and activists who they believe are, quote, unquote, obstructing ICE enforcement. This kind of surveillance technology is a gift if you have that kind of ill intent, and the federal government has that ill intent right now.

Mayor Mike Johnston also stated that they need to halt these arrests because “today’s environment is much different than when the pilot began in early 2024, and there are new community concerns surrounding this technology.”

The police are obviously not happy but car thieves are thrilled.

If this seems utterly insane, keep in mind that this was a unanimous vote of the city council.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 09:45

GOP Kills 'Revenge Tax' In Trump's Megabill, Wall Street Breathes Easy

Zero Hedge -

GOP Kills 'Revenge Tax' In Trump's Megabill, Wall Street Breathes Easy

Wall Street analysts are breathing a major sigh of relief this morning following overnight news that President Trump's 'One, Big, Beautiful Bill' will not include the controversial Section 899 "revenge tax" proposal. The announcement came after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted on X, noting that productive discussions with international trade partners have helped "defend American interests."

Trump's support for Section 899 stems from his economic nationalism agenda and desire to penalize foreign countries that discriminate against U.S. companies through digital services taxes and other taxes. This was primarily aimed at countering the taxation of U.S. firms by several European countries, as well as Canada and Australia.

"Based on this progress and understanding, I have asked the Senate and House to remove the Section 899 protective measure from consideration in the One, Big, Beautiful Bill. This understanding with our G7 partners provides greater certainty and stability for the global economy and will enhance growth and investment in the United States and beyond," Bessent wrote in a series of X posts. 

He continued, "By reversing the Biden Administration's unwise commitments, we are now protecting our Nation's authority to enact tax policies that serve the interests of American businesses and workers," adding, "We are also preserving our tax base, preventing the loss of over $100 billion in American taxpayer dollars according to Treasury estimates and the non-partisan Joint Committee on Taxation."

"The Trump Administration remains vigilant against all discriminatory and extraterritorial foreign taxes applied against Americans. We will defend our tax sovereignty and resist efforts to create an unlevel playing field for our citizens and companies," Bessent noted. 

Shortly after Bessent's comments, Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-Missouri) issued statements on Section 899 and the OECD Pillar 2 / global minimum tax project:

"At the request of Secretary Bessent and in light of this joint understanding to preserve U.S. tax sovereignty and allow U.S. tax laws to co-exist with the Pillar 2 regime, we will remove proposed tax code Section 899 from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and we look forward to active engagement with Treasury on these important issues." 

Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities, penned a first take note earlier to clients, calling the move by Bessent a "sigh of relief." 

"Removing Section 899 from the budget negotiations would potentially allow investors to breathe a sigh of relief," Goldberg said, adding, "That said, it's difficult to know if the market seriously expected this statute to make it into the final law."

Deutsche's global head of macro research, Jim Reid, told clients:

"We are also waiting to see if the U.S. administration will pass its budget megabill as they hope by the July 4th holiday. Senate Republicans have been aiming to vote on the bill this week but that timing looks uncertain, with the latest issue being a technical hurdle that some of the proposed Medicaid changes do not meet the strict rules of the reconciliation process that allows to approve budget policies with a simple majority in the Senate. So that could force meaningful last minute changes. One to monitor going into the weekend. There is good news that late last night we found out that the U.S. Treasury Department has asked the Senate and the House to remove Section 899 (aka the "revenge tax") from the bill after a deal was struck with G7 leaders to exempt U.S. companies from some taxes. Given how much email traffic there's been in my inbox on this topic, it's fair to say global investors will breathe a sigh of relief on this news." 

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius noted that "the Senate looks likely to pass the fiscal package by this weekend, though several unresolved issues could delay passage until early July." 

Hatzius provided clients with five key points surrounding the new developments:

  1. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Crapo and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Smith announced that they would remove the provision to increase taxes on foreign investors, businesses, and governments known as Section 899.

  2. This follows an announcement from Treasury Secretary Bessent that the U.S. has reached an understanding with other G7 countries to exclude U.S. companies from the tax, and that the U.S. would work to implement this agreement in the OECD framework in coming weeks and months. While Sec. Bessent did not elaborate on what the understanding includes, it seems likely to involve a deal with other countries to grandfather the existing U.S. tax on global intangible low-tax income (GILTI) as a qualified tax under the OECD rules, which would have the effect of reducing foreign taxes on U.S. companies.

  3. The Senate's version of Sec. 899 had already been scaled back from the House's provision, but would have raised an estimated $52bn/10yrs. While removing the provision will add to the estimated cost of the bill, the international tax agreement could offset some or all of this, as it would likely result in U.S. multinationals paying a greater share of their tax liabilities to the U.S. and a smaller share to other jurisdictions.

  4. While it now looks unlikely that Congress will pass Sec. 899 or something like it this year, we note that the president currently has authority under another longstanding section of law (Sec. 891) to double the tax on foreign individuals and corporations in response to discriminatory or extraterritorial taxes on U.S. entities. In light of the announced agreement, there is little reason to expect this authority to come into play, though it could become relevant if other countries do not follow through with the understanding that Sec. Bessent has announced.

  5. The Senate looks likely to pass the fiscal package by this weekend, though several unresolved issues could delay passage until early July. The odds of enactment into law by early July have risen, though we still see a fair chance this could slip to later in July or early August, depending on how long the Senate takes to pass the bill and the extent of disagreements between the House- and Senate-passed versions of the bill.

The big takeaway is that some of Wall Street's top analysts are relieved after the Trump administration dropped the controversial Section 899 from its massive fiscal bill.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 09:30

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