Individual Economists

Trump Threatens 'Unprecedented Military Consequences' As Iran Reportedly Starts Mining The Strait Of Hormuz

Zero Hedge -

Trump Threatens 'Unprecedented Military Consequences' As Iran Reportedly Starts Mining The Strait Of Hormuz

Summary:

  • CNN says the IRGC had already begun laying explosive mines in the vital Strait of Hormuz.

  • Reuters: AS MANY AS 150 US TROOPS WOUNDED SO FAR IN IRAN WAR

  • CBS says US intelligence has begun to see indications Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in Strait of Hormuz shipping lane

  • Divergent signals flying between Tehran and Washington: Witkoff says Trump "always willing to talk" to Iran, the question is whether or not it is worth it. Trump-Putin spoke Monday, and Putin-Pezeshkian spoke Tuesday. Meanwhile Tehran defiant: no ceasefire, vows maximum pain.

  • Operation 'mostly achieved goals' - Trump says as WSJ reports officials seeking plans for offramp. Biggest airstrikes of the war.

  • Tehran vows ‘eye for an eye’ if US-Israel hit infrastructure. Iran leaders on various levels sounding hawkish and not backing down.

  • Oil/Energy: Iraq has shut down some oil wells, while Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia taking similar steps to curtail production. Qatar too: halted operations at several gas wells and shut down the liquefaction "trains" used to process natural gas for export.

  • Qatar urges halt to attacks, quick return to diplomacy - Foreign Ministry: "Reaching the negotiating table quickly and halting attacks would serve the interests of the peoples of the region as well as international peace and security, in addition to strengthening global economic stability."

  • Pentagon claims "winning": After ten days into Operation Epic Fury, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth lists objectives that include destroying Iran's missile infrastructure, defense industry, navy, and ensuring Tehran is "permanently" denied nuclear weapons.

  • Trump's mixed messaging as war could end 'soon' while saying Iran's military is crippled, but also warns Tehran would be hit "20 times harder" if it disrupts oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Signs of Washington officials looking for an offramp. A mere few days ago Trump stressed the US would stop at nothing short of Iran's "unconditional surrender" - but that continues to look dubious.

  • Iran rejects U.S. narrative: The IRGC says its missile program remains intact and claims it is firing larger salvos with heavier warheads, while officials insist Iran, not Washington, will decide when the war ends.

  • Regional escalation especially in Lebanon: Heavy IDF fighting continues with Hezbollah in Lebanon, while Gulf states intercept missiles and drones, and all the while Iranian leaders say US and Israeli regime-change efforts have failed and vow to prepare for a "long war" - even involving those who host American bases in region.

* * *

Update(1555ET): A fresh Tuesday CNN report says that Iran has already begun laying mines in the vital oil transit Strait of Hormuz waterway: 

Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint that carries about one-fifth of all crude oil, according to two people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue.

The mining is not extensive yet, with a few dozen having been laid in recent days, the sources said. But Iran still retains upward of 80% to 90% of its small boats and mine layers, one of the sources said, so its forces could feasibly lay hundreds of mines in the waterway.

The report further says that after IRGC threats have already de facto closed the strait to nearly all international traffic (apparently unless they signal they are Chinese vessels) amid the ongoing drone and missile threat, it maintains the capability to deploy a "gauntlet" of dispersed mine-laying craft, continues CNN, including explosive-laden boats and shore-based missile batteries.

TRUMP RESPONDS to the reports, warns the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before.

Trump revised his tweet quickly, adding the following:

"Additionally, we are using the same Technology and Missile capabilities deployed against Drug Traffickers to permanently eliminate any boat or ship attempting to mine the Hormuz Strait.

They will be dealt with quickly and violently.

BEWARE!"

He also followed with saying that the US already destroyed ten inactive mine laying boats.

CENTCOM meanwhile quickly counter-signals that it stands ready to fight back:

* * *

Update(1458ET): In an afternoon WH press briefing, Karoline Leavitt was pressured by reporters on the scope of the Iran operations, as well as whether Trump will allow the new supreme leader to rule, as well as questions on what Trump meant when days ago he laid out that the US will not stop operations until Iran's "unconditional surrender". She struggled on some of these, but offered little new or substantive. One new and very alarming development, however, also mentioned in the WH briefing room - and not denied by Leavitt - was the following fresh Reuters report:

As many ‌as 150 ‌U.S. ⁠troops ⁠have been wounded so far ​in the war with ​Iran, two people familiar ⁠with ⁠the matter ⁠told Reuters ​on Tuesday.

The figure ​has ⁠not been previously reported ⁠and is far higher than the Pentagon's ⁠publicly disclosed figure of 8 seriously wounded U.S. forces.

And another big afternoon development: CBS'  Jim LaPorta reports that US intelligence assets have begun to see indications Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in Strait of Hormuz shipping lane.

LaPorta added that Iran is reportedly using smaller crafts that can carry 2 to 3 mines each. While Iran’s mine stock isn’t publicly known, estimates over the years have ranged from roughly 2,000 to 6,000 naval mines of Iranian, Chinese and Russian-made variants.

* * *

Ten days of Operation Epic Fury have passed, and War Secretary Pete Hegseth asserted that the United States is "winning" against the "barbarian" Iranians, and that Tehran has been "racing" toward a nuclear bomb.

He listed in a Pentagon press briefing Tuesday morning that war objectives are to destroy missiles and the defense industrial base, to destroy Iran's navy, and to ensure Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon. He stressed that the goal includes to "permanently deny Iran nuclear weapons forever."

He added: "We will not relent until the enemy is totally and entirely defeated." This comes the day after President Trump said that he believes the war could end soon, even as Iranian officials signal they are preparing for a prolonged conflict.

AFP/Getty Images

"I think the war is very complete, pretty much," Trump told CBS News. "They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force." Hours later in afternoon remarks from Florida, Trump warned that Iran would face massive retaliation if it tried to disrupt global oil flows, saying the United States would strike Tehran "20 times harder" if it attempted to block tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Pentagon's Tuesday morning briefing really emphasized steady destruction of Iranian missile sites - even underground ballistic launch bunkers - with heavy bunker busters. However, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has rejected Washington claims that its missile program has been destroyed, saying it is launching larger volleys of missiles with warheads weighing more than one ton.

Iran has continued retaliatory strikes on Israel and Gulf allies, including in Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. One person was killed in Manama and two others were killed in central Israel Monday into Tuesday.

While Israel's military has heavily censored potential damage on the ground and the rate of Iran's missile and drone attacks, unverified but widespread online accounts suggest it continues to get hit hard on a nightly basis.

Tehran meanwhile has experienced some of the heaviest bombardment of the war overnight, with at least 40 people reported killed near Risalat Square. Since the start of the war, at least 460 people have been killed and 4,309 wounded in Tehran alone, according to the figures of Mehr Soroush, deputy head of the Tehran Emergency Health Department. The Iranian capital is densely packed with a size and population comparable to New York City.

Across Iran, more than 1,200 people have been killed and over 10,000 injured. Even the newly named Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, may have been injured - reportedly before he was declared head of the country, state media has suggested.

Mohammad Jamalian, a member of Iran’s parliamentary health committee, has said nine hospitals are no longer operational due to the ongoing bombardment. Pharmaceutical stockpiles remain sufficient for about six months, he has described according to Al Jazeera, while non-elective surgeries have been suspended to free hospital capacity for emergency cases.

The conflict continues to expand regionally, with the Bahrain military saying it has intercepted and destroyed 105 missiles and 176 drones since Iran began attacks on countries hosting American forces. There remains a big open question on whether Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will send their militaries to formally enter Operation Epic Freedom. Hawkish Senator Lindsey Graham has certainly been calling for it, saying the Gulf should do much more in its own defense.

Israel's northern front also remains active, with Israeli strikes in Lebanon having pushed the death toll there to at least 486 people as Israel and Hezbollah continue exchanging fire.

"Rally round the flag" effect in the wake of Trump's 'shock and awe-style' bombs on Tehran and elsewhere...

Israeli officials are also signaling that the war is far from over, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying in a visit to IDF troops, "Our aspiration is to bring the Iranian people to cast off the yoke of tyranny; ultimately, it depends on them. But there is no doubt that with the actions taken so far, we are breaking their bones – and we are not done yet."

As for the narrative from Tehran, leaders remain defiant - also as there's some degree of evidence of a "rally around the flag" effect, meaning Iranians have been filmed out in the street pledging allegiance to the nation and the new Supreme Leader. Iranian officials are loudly and boldly declaring Washington and Tel Aviv failed in their initial war objectives.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei has proven that regime change efforts have collapsed. "They thought that, in a matter of two or three days, they can go for a regime change, they can go for a rapid, clean victory, but they failed… they failed to achieve their goals at the beginning, and now, after 10 days, I think they are aimless," Foreign Minister Araghchi told PBS News Hour.

Araghchi also rejected claims that Iran is responsible for rising oil prices and disruptions to global shipping, describing that "This is not our plan" and that "The oil production, the transportation of oil has been slowed down or stopped not because of us, because of the attacks and aggression made by Israelis and Americans against us."

Iran says it is still prepared for a "long war" and to fight to the end. On the question of closing Hormuz, the Iranian top diplomat claimed, "We have not closed that strait. We are not preventing them to navigate in that strait. But this is the result of the aggression by Israelis and Americans, which has made the whole region insecure, unstable." Additionally the IRGC has said that Iran, not the United States, will determine when the war ends.

Pressed on Iranian strikes targeting oil facilities in the region, Araghchi insisted Tehran is acting in self-defense. "We are facing an act of aggression, which is absolutely illegal. And what we are doing is the act of self-defense, which is legal and legitimate."

"Well, we have already warned everybody in the region that, if the US attacks us, since we cannot reach the American soil, we have to attack their bases in the region, their facilities, their installations, their assets."

Iran's foreign ministry has also taken the opportunity to fire back at European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen after she said the Iranian people "deserve freedom, dignity, and the right to decide their own future."

"Please spare the hypocrisy," foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei wrote on X. "You’ve made a career out of standing on the wrong side of history — green-lighting occupation, genocide, and atrocities, and now laundering U.S./Israeli crime of aggression and war crimes against Iranians."

"Where was your voice when more than 165 innocent IRANIAN little angels were massacred in the city of Minab?" he questioned. "Why don’t you say anything when hospitals, historical sites, oil facilities, diplomatic police headquarter, firefighting stations and residential neighborhoods are wickedly targeted?" He concluded that it's been: "Silence in the face of lawlessness and atrocity is nothing less than complicity."

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 15:55

IEA Delivers No SPR Action After Extraordinary Meeting As Crude Jawboning Mania Enters Day Two

Zero Hedge -

IEA Delivers No SPR Action After Extraordinary Meeting As Crude Jawboning Mania Enters Day Two

Update (1514ET): 

For a second straight day, G-7 leaders attempted to push crude prices lower with headlines about an "emergency meeting" to discuss a possible Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release aimed at containing Brent and WTI crude prices. However, by late afternoon in New York, the Financial Times reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) had concluded the meeting without reaching a decision on a coordinated release of crude stockpiles.

Today's slide in Brent and WTI was initially sparked by IEA chief Fatih Birol, who said the G-7 energy ministers and the IEA would hold an "extraordinary meeting" to discuss energy market conditions. Hours later, the group of G-7 leaders reached no decision on an SPR dump.

Why? Because there is no reason, when jawboning markets with headlines crushed WTI prices from $90/bbl to $76/bbl.

However, the most notable headline event in attempts to talk crude prices down was Energy Secretary Chris Wright's now-deleted tweet, which falsely claimed that a U.S. military-escorted tanker had transited the Hormuz chokepoint. Shortly thereafter, headlines hit that Iran was taking steps to mine the Strait of Hormuz, causing WTI to spike from around $76 to nearly $86 per barrel within a short time.

The crude market news flow today was pure circus chaos:

Even with WTI briefly rising to nearly $120/bbl on Monday, G-7 ministers still could not agree on an SPR release plan. At some point, the market may begin treating these emergency meeting headlines as pure bullshit.

 

*   *   * 

With oil reversing much of the overnight losses as we neared the start of US cash open trading, futures slumped and it felt like we were back to square one. 

That's when the jawboning out of the G7 members - many of whom are already at their breaking point in terms of soaring input costs - decided to double down on the jawboning rhetoric from yesterday - and hinted strongly that an SPR release could be imminent. 

The narrative peaked just around 10:20am ET, when the head of the IEA, Fatih Birol, said that after the IEA hosted a G7 Energy Ministers Meeting, chaired by Minister Roland Lescure of France, on the current oil & gas market situation, tonight there would be an "extraordinary meeting of IEA Member governments later today to assess market conditions."

Birol also attached the following peak jawboning statement:

In oil markets, conditions have deteriorated in recent days. In addition to the challenges of transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a substantial amount of oil production has been curtailed. This is creating significant and growing risks for the market. We discussed all the available options, including making IEA emergency oil stocks available to the market. IEA Member countries currently hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks, with a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks held under government obligation.

Given conditions in oil markets, I have convened an extraordinary meeting of IEA Member governments, which will take place later today to assess the current security of supply and market conditions to inform a subsequent decision on whether to make emergency stocks of IEA countries available to the market.

As well as IEA Members, I am also in close contact about the situation with energy ministers from key energy producers and consumers around the world.

And in a mirror image of a similar verbal intervention from yesterday (see "G-7 Leaders Reject SPR Release Plan, But 'Stand Ready' After Initial Jawbone Efforts Fade"), oil immediately tumbled erasing all gains, and sliding to overnight lows, on expectations that this time the IEA/G7's jawboning will lead to something more than just promises.

And as oil falls, stocks rise...

Which is all as one would expect.

However, as Bloomberg's Ye Xie notes, despite the slump of crude oil prices and the calming of Brent crude spreads this morning, WTI option traders still see risks skewed toward higher prices. Investors are paying the highest premium in years for call options for WTI futures over puts...

That shows investors remain concerned about a prolonged oil and gas disruption as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut. As Jordan Rochester at Mizuho noted, the amount of production shut down in the Middle East is set to double over the next week or so, taking daily supply of about 8 million barrels out of the market. That isn’t particularly encouraging news for investors - even as the jawboning from G-7 energy ministers continues.

The bigger problem is what happens if - like yesterday - a few European countries who SPRs are already at dangerously low levels, kill the idea. After all, all an SPR release would do is buy a few weeks of artificially depressed oil prices while further draining global emergency stocks. So while oil is already frontrunning the drop, expect oil to surge should the IEA/G7 disappoint again and fail to move from mere jawboning to action. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 15:14

Ugly 3Y Auction Tails Most Since Liberation Day, Bit to Cover Slides

Zero Hedge -

Ugly 3Y Auction Tails Most Since Liberation Day, Bit to Cover Slides

Not that anyone will care much in light of the Iran-related news barrage hitting every second, but moments ago the US sold $58BN in 3Y paper in what was a rather ugly auction. Let's take a quick look.

In the week's first coupon auction, the US sold $58BN in 3Y notes, at a high yield of 3.579%, up from 3.518% last month but in line with auctions since last August. The problem is that the auction tailed the When Issued 3.58% by 1.1bps, the first tail since August and the biggest tail since Liberation Day. 

The bid to cover was 2.546, down from 2.624 and the lowest since August. 

The internals were also mediocre at best: Indirects were awarded 59.8% as foreign demand was still there but at a subdued pace: the six auction average if 64.3%. And with Directs taking 20.7%, or on the low end of the recent average of 25.3%, Dealers were left holding a sizable 19.5%, the highest since April. 

Overall, this was a subpar, disappointing auction which however could be attributed to the melt up in stocks. However, if this weakness persists in the week's upcoming coupon auctions, that could be a problem. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 14:10

Ugly 3Y Auction Tails Most Since Liberation Day, Bit to Cover Slides

Zero Hedge -

Ugly 3Y Auction Tails Most Since Liberation Day, Bit to Cover Slides

Not that anyone will care much in light of the Iran-related news barrage hitting every second, but moments ago the US sold $58BN in 3Y paper in what was a rather ugly auction. Let's take a quick look.

In the week's first coupon auction, the US sold $58BN in 3Y notes, at a high yield of 3.579%, up from 3.518% last month but in line with auctions since last August. The problem is that the auction tailed the When Issued 3.58% by 1.1bps, the first tail since August and the biggest tail since Liberation Day. 

The bid to cover was 2.546, down from 2.624 and the lowest since August. 

The internals were also mediocre at best: Indirects were awarded 59.8% as foreign demand was still there but at a subdued pace: the six auction average if 64.3%. And with Directs taking 20.7%, or on the low end of the recent average of 25.3%, Dealers were left holding a sizable 19.5%, the highest since April. 

Overall, this was a subpar, disappointing auction which however could be attributed to the melt up in stocks. However, if this weakness persists in the week's upcoming coupon auctions, that could be a problem. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 14:10

Bitcoin Vs Gold: ETF Flows Point To Early Capital Rotations Signs

Zero Hedge -

Bitcoin Vs Gold: ETF Flows Point To Early Capital Rotations Signs

Authored by Biraajmaan Tamuly via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows have turned net positive over the past 30 days, while gold ETF demand has started to slow down after nine straight months of inflows. The shift comes even as gold prices remain elevated and sentiment around Bitcoin continues to cool.

With these contrasting trends in ETF flows and the historical pattern of Bitcoin-to-gold performance cycles, analysts are now examining data that may signal a gradual shift in investor demand between the two assets. 

Are ETF flows beginning to rotate?

According to the Kobeissi Letter, the largest US gold-backed ETF, GLD, recorded a $3 billion outflow on Wednesday, the largest daily withdrawal in more than two years. The move followed a 4.4% decline in gold prices, the sharpest drop since the Jan. 30 sell-off.

Gold ETFs had attracted $18.7 billion in January and another $5.3 billion in February, marking the strongest two-month start to a year on record and extending a nine-month inflow streak. The latest outflow points to investors taking profits after gold’s massive rally in 2025.

Bitcoin ETF flows moved in the opposite direction over the past month. The 30-day net flow shifted to a $273 million inflow on March 6 from a $1.9 billion outflow on Feb. 6

Bitcoin and gold net ETF inflows over the past 30-days. Source: bold.report

The holdings data measured in native units show the divergence more clearly. Bitcoin ETF balances moved to a net increase of 4,021 BTC on March 6 from −42,275 BTC on Feb. 6. Gold ETF holdings declined from 1.4 million ounces to 621,100 ounces during the same period.

The native units represent the actual underlying asset held by funds rather than the dollar value of those holdings. Tracking BTC or ounces isolates real accumulation or distribution without the distortion created by the price movements.

Head of growth at Horizon, Joe Consorti, summarized the current trend and said,   

“Gold is stalling out while bitcoin is soaring. BTC is set to overtake gold's % growth over the last month as the U.S. economy accelerates and risk sentiment improves. The anticipated risk-off → risk-on rotation could be underway.”
Gold rallies precede Bitcoin recoveries

In a “2026 Look Ahead” report released at the end of December 2025, Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper noted that gold’s 65% return in 2025 was the fourth-largest annual gain since the end of the gold standard. With respect to past rallies, Kuiper noted that gold is potentially near the late stages of its leadership cycle between the two assets. Kuiper said, 

“Historically, gold and bitcoin have taken turns outperforming. With gold shining in 2025, it would not be surprising if bitcoin takes the lead next.”

However, the rotation may take some time to unfold in the market. 

Bitcoin-to-gold ratio analysis. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As illustrated in the chart, BTC needed roughly 147 days or 21 weeks to establish a sustained trend outperforming gold after Bitcoin’s 2022 bottom. The period marked a consolidation phase before the ratio began trending higher.

The BTC-to-gold ratio currently trades near the same consolidation zone seen during the earlier rotation phases in 2022-2023.

Kuiper also added that both assets can benefit from the persistent fiscal deficits, trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainty as investors seek neutral stores of value outside traditional monetary systems.

The ongoing US-Israel and Iran war has reinforced demand for traditional safe-haven assets, which previously supported gold rallies during periods of geopolitical stress.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic strategist Lyn Alden expects Bitcoin to outperform gold over the next two to three years following gold’s recent rally in the past few months.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 14:00

Bitcoin Vs Gold: ETF Flows Point To Early Capital Rotations Signs

Zero Hedge -

Bitcoin Vs Gold: ETF Flows Point To Early Capital Rotations Signs

Authored by Biraajmaan Tamuly via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows have turned net positive over the past 30 days, while gold ETF demand has started to slow down after nine straight months of inflows. The shift comes even as gold prices remain elevated and sentiment around Bitcoin continues to cool.

With these contrasting trends in ETF flows and the historical pattern of Bitcoin-to-gold performance cycles, analysts are now examining data that may signal a gradual shift in investor demand between the two assets. 

Are ETF flows beginning to rotate?

According to the Kobeissi Letter, the largest US gold-backed ETF, GLD, recorded a $3 billion outflow on Wednesday, the largest daily withdrawal in more than two years. The move followed a 4.4% decline in gold prices, the sharpest drop since the Jan. 30 sell-off.

Gold ETFs had attracted $18.7 billion in January and another $5.3 billion in February, marking the strongest two-month start to a year on record and extending a nine-month inflow streak. The latest outflow points to investors taking profits after gold’s massive rally in 2025.

Bitcoin ETF flows moved in the opposite direction over the past month. The 30-day net flow shifted to a $273 million inflow on March 6 from a $1.9 billion outflow on Feb. 6

Bitcoin and gold net ETF inflows over the past 30-days. Source: bold.report

The holdings data measured in native units show the divergence more clearly. Bitcoin ETF balances moved to a net increase of 4,021 BTC on March 6 from −42,275 BTC on Feb. 6. Gold ETF holdings declined from 1.4 million ounces to 621,100 ounces during the same period.

The native units represent the actual underlying asset held by funds rather than the dollar value of those holdings. Tracking BTC or ounces isolates real accumulation or distribution without the distortion created by the price movements.

Head of growth at Horizon, Joe Consorti, summarized the current trend and said,   

“Gold is stalling out while bitcoin is soaring. BTC is set to overtake gold's % growth over the last month as the U.S. economy accelerates and risk sentiment improves. The anticipated risk-off → risk-on rotation could be underway.”
Gold rallies precede Bitcoin recoveries

In a “2026 Look Ahead” report released at the end of December 2025, Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper noted that gold’s 65% return in 2025 was the fourth-largest annual gain since the end of the gold standard. With respect to past rallies, Kuiper noted that gold is potentially near the late stages of its leadership cycle between the two assets. Kuiper said, 

“Historically, gold and bitcoin have taken turns outperforming. With gold shining in 2025, it would not be surprising if bitcoin takes the lead next.”

However, the rotation may take some time to unfold in the market. 

Bitcoin-to-gold ratio analysis. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As illustrated in the chart, BTC needed roughly 147 days or 21 weeks to establish a sustained trend outperforming gold after Bitcoin’s 2022 bottom. The period marked a consolidation phase before the ratio began trending higher.

The BTC-to-gold ratio currently trades near the same consolidation zone seen during the earlier rotation phases in 2022-2023.

Kuiper also added that both assets can benefit from the persistent fiscal deficits, trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainty as investors seek neutral stores of value outside traditional monetary systems.

The ongoing US-Israel and Iran war has reinforced demand for traditional safe-haven assets, which previously supported gold rallies during periods of geopolitical stress.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic strategist Lyn Alden expects Bitcoin to outperform gold over the next two to three years following gold’s recent rally in the past few months.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 14:00

ASP Isotopes Jump On "Material Progress Toward Commercial Uranium Enrichment"

Zero Hedge -

ASP Isotopes Jump On "Material Progress Toward Commercial Uranium Enrichment"

Just days after we covered the story on Quantum Leap Energy’s non-binding MOU with a major U.S. nuclear utility, Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas reiterated his buy rating on the beaten down ASP Isotopes, with an $11 price target citing “material progress” toward commercial uranium enrichment on two continents.

On February 23, QLE inked a Pre-Implementation Services Contract with South Africa’s Necsa to site, design, build, and operate an enrichment facility at the Pelindaba complex. The deal gives QLE access to existing nuclear infrastructure, utilities, and a joint oversight committee. Gianarikas says it’s the clearest signal yet that licensed HALEU production in South Africa is moving from lab to market readiness.

The March 6 MOU we highlighted last week adds the U.S. piece: the unnamed utility will potentially help stand up domestic HALEU and LEU+ enrichment, conversion, and deconversion capacity while discussing offtake and financing. That’s critical ahead of the 2028 Russian uranium import ban we’ve repeatedly flagged as the biggest catalyst for non-adversarial supply chains.

The report also spotlights accelerating LEU+ adoption by conventional fleets. Westinghouse loaded the first ~6% LEU+ test assemblies at Southern Company’s Vogtle Unit 2 last April. Urenco secured NRC approval to enrich to 10% and produced its first commercial batch in December. Framatome is upgrading its Richland plant and just filed for an 8% enrichment limit. Partners include Constellation (23% of U.S. nuclear output), Duke, Entergy, and Vistra.

As we first detailed after the Silicon-28 mega-contract and US radiopharmacy buy, then again when Trump Jr. and Eric Trump-backed funds poured in and when Renergen cleared regulatory hurdles, Canaccord is framing ASPI is one of the few names positioned across HALEU, medical isotopes, and quantum materials: a veritable cornucopia of next gen energy buzzwords. The South Africa and U.S. milestones now de-risk the commercial ramp in exactly the way we’ve been tracking.

Canaccord flags the usual risks including regulatory approvals, South African political noise, and balance-sheet needs, but ASPI is attempting to fill the HALEU gap that TerraPower, Oklo, and the entire advanced-reactor wave need. With the 2028 ban looming and AI data centers screaming for carbon-free baseload, the window for first-mover domestic enrichment is closing fast.

ASPI stock has been beaten down in recent months, although as its story continues to spread, expect more sellside coverage. As of today, just three banks (Canaccord, Cantor, and Lucid) cover the stock with a $13 average price target.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 12:40

ASP Isotopes Jump On "Material Progress Toward Commercial Uranium Enrichment"

Zero Hedge -

ASP Isotopes Jump On "Material Progress Toward Commercial Uranium Enrichment"

Just days after we covered the story on Quantum Leap Energy’s non-binding MOU with a major U.S. nuclear utility, Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas reiterated his buy rating on the beaten down ASP Isotopes, with an $11 price target citing “material progress” toward commercial uranium enrichment on two continents.

On February 23, QLE inked a Pre-Implementation Services Contract with South Africa’s Necsa to site, design, build, and operate an enrichment facility at the Pelindaba complex. The deal gives QLE access to existing nuclear infrastructure, utilities, and a joint oversight committee. Gianarikas says it’s the clearest signal yet that licensed HALEU production in South Africa is moving from lab to market readiness.

The March 6 MOU we highlighted last week adds the U.S. piece: the unnamed utility will potentially help stand up domestic HALEU and LEU+ enrichment, conversion, and deconversion capacity while discussing offtake and financing. That’s critical ahead of the 2028 Russian uranium import ban we’ve repeatedly flagged as the biggest catalyst for non-adversarial supply chains.

The report also spotlights accelerating LEU+ adoption by conventional fleets. Westinghouse loaded the first ~6% LEU+ test assemblies at Southern Company’s Vogtle Unit 2 last April. Urenco secured NRC approval to enrich to 10% and produced its first commercial batch in December. Framatome is upgrading its Richland plant and just filed for an 8% enrichment limit. Partners include Constellation (23% of U.S. nuclear output), Duke, Entergy, and Vistra.

As we first detailed after the Silicon-28 mega-contract and US radiopharmacy buy, then again when Trump Jr. and Eric Trump-backed funds poured in and when Renergen cleared regulatory hurdles, Canaccord is framing ASPI is one of the few names positioned across HALEU, medical isotopes, and quantum materials: a veritable cornucopia of next gen energy buzzwords. The South Africa and U.S. milestones now de-risk the commercial ramp in exactly the way we’ve been tracking.

Canaccord flags the usual risks including regulatory approvals, South African political noise, and balance-sheet needs, but ASPI is attempting to fill the HALEU gap that TerraPower, Oklo, and the entire advanced-reactor wave need. With the 2028 ban looming and AI data centers screaming for carbon-free baseload, the window for first-mover domestic enrichment is closing fast.

ASPI stock has been beaten down in recent months, although as its story continues to spread, expect more sellside coverage. As of today, just three banks (Canaccord, Cantor, and Lucid) cover the stock with a $13 average price target.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 12:40

House Of Horrors: Cops Search Epstein's Zorro Ranch For Strangled Girls, 'Human Experimentation'

Zero Hedge -

House Of Horrors: Cops Search Epstein's Zorro Ranch For Strangled Girls, 'Human Experimentation'

Weeks after New Mexico officials launched an investigation into Jeffrey Epstein's Zorro Ranch in New Mexico - which has since been purchased to turn into a Christian retreat, the FBI and local law enforcement descended on the 7,500 acre property in search of dark secrets, including the possible graves of trafficked girls who may have been strangled to death during violent sex sessions on the property. 

For years the rumors have swirled around the isolated estate near the tiny town of Stanley (about 30 miles south of Santa Fe), however the identities of the alleged victims - and whether their bodies are on the property - has remained a mystery. 

The search - conducted on Monday and into Tuesday, is part of a planned state “truth commission” established by New Mexico lawmakers last month to investigate allegations surrounding Epstein’s activities at the ranch because the feds have dropped the ball. 

The operation began just a day after hundreds of protesters gathered outside the ranch on International Women’s Day to show support for victims of sexual abuse, the Daily Mail reports.

Danny Wilson, the brother of Epstein victim Virginia Giuffre, spoke at the protest held outside Zorro Ranch on Sunday, International Women's Day

“We have heard years of allegations and rumors about Epstein’s activities in New Mexico, but unfortunately, federal investigations have failed to put together an official record,” said New Mexico state Rep. Andrea Romero, who pushed to create the commission.

“With this truth commission, we can finally fill in the gaps by investigating the failures that led to the horrific allegations of abuse and crime at Zorro Ranch, so we can learn from them and prevent such atrocities from taking place in our state going forward,” Romero said.

One Epstein Files email references a woman who claimed Epstein offered her money to 'birth babies for black market use.'

Via @blueapples

In another Epstein file, a former staff member at Zorro allegedly claimed that "somewhere in the hills outside Zorro, two foreign girls were buried on orders of Jeffrey and Madam G" - referring to Ghislaine Maxwell. 

According to the Daily Mail, witnesses have begun claiming that Epstein may have also used the secluded ranch for disturbing medical procedures tied to his reported interest in eugenics.

“We have people coming forward saying they were drugged, had sex organs and sperm harvested from their bodies, and woke up around medical equipment not knowing where they were or what happened to them,” Romero told the Daily Mail.

New Mexico state Representative Andrea Romero is one of several lawmakers now calling for a sweeping investigation into what really happened at Zorro Ranch, following a recent influx of tips 

In addition to the allegedly strangled women, one of the most disturbing threads surrounding Jeffrey Epstein’s New Mexico estate involves allegations that the ranch may have been tied to his unusual fascination with human experimentation - particularly eugenics and genetic engineering, ideas he reportedly discussed with scientists and wealthy associates. According to accounts cited by various outlets, Epstein spoke openly about a plan to use the remote property as a kind of “baby ranch,” where women would be impregnated with his sperm in order to create a genetically “superior” bloodline.

Investigators and journalists say Epstein had a long-standing interest in transhumanism and eugenics - the controversial belief that the human race can be improved through selective breeding - and he surrounded himself with scientists and academics for frequent discussions. 

In another document from the Epstein dump, a victim writes a coded diary where she describes being a 'human incubator' who was forced to give birth to a child that was taken from her.

Eft a 02731361 by Zerohedge Janitor

Romero acknowledged that the allegations sound unusual but said investigators must examine the claims.

“It’s so dark and perplexing, and I know that if you mention this to someone, it sounds very conspiratorial,” Romero said. “But we need to get down to the truth of what really happened here in our own backyard.”

The property was bought by Epstein in 1993 from former New Mexico governor Bruce King. It spans roughly 13 square miles of high desert and includes a massive luxury hacienda, guest lodges, staff dwellings, horse stables, a private airstrip, hangar and helipad. Epstein owned the ranch until his death (or escape) in (from) a New York federal jail cell in 2019 while awaiting trial on federal sex-trafficking charges. After his death (or escape), the ranch was listed for sale for $27.5 million in 2021 before the price was reduced to $18 million. The property was eventually sold in 2023 to a limited liability corporation that renamed it San Rafael Ranch.

New Mexico DOJ spokesman Lauren Rodriguez said the current owners - the family of Texas real-estate developer Don Huffines - granted investigators access to search the property and nearby public land.

Epstein’s ranch has long been alleged to have served as one of several locations where the financier trafficked and abused young women, alongside properties in New York, Florida and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Civil filings have claimed that prominent guests visited the compound, including Britain’s (former) Prince Andrew, who was accused by Epstein accuser Virginia Giuffre of being one of the men she was trafficked to. Andrew has denied wrongdoing. There have also been unverified claims by contractors and journalists that former President Bill Clinton and other prominent figures spent time at the ranch, although Clinton denied being there during a deposition before Congress.

Accuser Maria Farmer has said she and her younger sister Annie were brought to Zorro Ranch in 1996 under the pretense of working on an art project. Maria has alleged that she was sexually assaulted by Epstein and his associate Ghislaine Maxwell, who was convicted in 2021 of child sex trafficking and is currently serving a 20-year federal prison sentence. Annie Farmer has said she was 15 when she was flown to the ranch and directed by Epstein and Maxwell “to take off all her clothes and get on a massage table.”

Since plans for the Truth Commission were announced, Romero said lawmakers have received between 25 and 30 tips from people claiming to have information about activities at the ranch.

“We have this massive international story in New Mexico and all these potential conspiracies, horrible things that have happened there,” she said. “We don't know what's fact from fiction, but owe it to the people of our state to sort through these threads of information and get answers.”

Republican state Rep. Andrea Reeb, a former prosecutor who plans to sit on the commission, said the state has not done enough to examine what happened at the ranch.

“Zorro Ranch has given New Mexico a black eye. We as a state haven't been aggressive enough on figuring out what happened there,” Reeb said.

“My main interest is to see if we can bring justice to some of the victims.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 12:20

House Of Horrors: Cops Search Epstein's Zorro Ranch For Strangled Girls, 'Human Experimentation'

Zero Hedge -

House Of Horrors: Cops Search Epstein's Zorro Ranch For Strangled Girls, 'Human Experimentation'

Weeks after New Mexico officials launched an investigation into Jeffrey Epstein's Zorro Ranch in New Mexico - which has since been purchased to turn into a Christian retreat, the FBI and local law enforcement descended on the 7,500 acre property in search of dark secrets, including the possible graves of trafficked girls who may have been strangled to death during violent sex sessions on the property. 

For years the rumors have swirled around the isolated estate near the tiny town of Stanley (about 30 miles south of Santa Fe), however the identities of the alleged victims - and whether their bodies are on the property - has remained a mystery. 

The search - conducted on Monday and into Tuesday, is part of a planned state “truth commission” established by New Mexico lawmakers last month to investigate allegations surrounding Epstein’s activities at the ranch because the feds have dropped the ball. 

The operation began just a day after hundreds of protesters gathered outside the ranch on International Women’s Day to show support for victims of sexual abuse, the Daily Mail reports.

Danny Wilson, the brother of Epstein victim Virginia Giuffre, spoke at the protest held outside Zorro Ranch on Sunday, International Women's Day

“We have heard years of allegations and rumors about Epstein’s activities in New Mexico, but unfortunately, federal investigations have failed to put together an official record,” said New Mexico state Rep. Andrea Romero, who pushed to create the commission.

“With this truth commission, we can finally fill in the gaps by investigating the failures that led to the horrific allegations of abuse and crime at Zorro Ranch, so we can learn from them and prevent such atrocities from taking place in our state going forward,” Romero said.

One Epstein Files email references a woman who claimed Epstein offered her money to 'birth babies for black market use.'

Via @blueapples

In another Epstein file, a former staff member at Zorro allegedly claimed that "somewhere in the hills outside Zorro, two foreign girls were buried on orders of Jeffrey and Madam G" - referring to Ghislaine Maxwell. 

According to the Daily Mail, witnesses have begun claiming that Epstein may have also used the secluded ranch for disturbing medical procedures tied to his reported interest in eugenics.

“We have people coming forward saying they were drugged, had sex organs and sperm harvested from their bodies, and woke up around medical equipment not knowing where they were or what happened to them,” Romero told the Daily Mail.

New Mexico state Representative Andrea Romero is one of several lawmakers now calling for a sweeping investigation into what really happened at Zorro Ranch, following a recent influx of tips 

In addition to the allegedly strangled women, one of the most disturbing threads surrounding Jeffrey Epstein’s New Mexico estate involves allegations that the ranch may have been tied to his unusual fascination with human experimentation - particularly eugenics and genetic engineering, ideas he reportedly discussed with scientists and wealthy associates. According to accounts cited by various outlets, Epstein spoke openly about a plan to use the remote property as a kind of “baby ranch,” where women would be impregnated with his sperm in order to create a genetically “superior” bloodline.

Investigators and journalists say Epstein had a long-standing interest in transhumanism and eugenics - the controversial belief that the human race can be improved through selective breeding - and he surrounded himself with scientists and academics for frequent discussions. 

In another document from the Epstein dump, a victim writes a coded diary where she describes being a 'human incubator' who was forced to give birth to a child that was taken from her.

Eft a 02731361 by Zerohedge Janitor

Romero acknowledged that the allegations sound unusual but said investigators must examine the claims.

“It’s so dark and perplexing, and I know that if you mention this to someone, it sounds very conspiratorial,” Romero said. “But we need to get down to the truth of what really happened here in our own backyard.”

The property was bought by Epstein in 1993 from former New Mexico governor Bruce King. It spans roughly 13 square miles of high desert and includes a massive luxury hacienda, guest lodges, staff dwellings, horse stables, a private airstrip, hangar and helipad. Epstein owned the ranch until his death (or escape) in (from) a New York federal jail cell in 2019 while awaiting trial on federal sex-trafficking charges. After his death (or escape), the ranch was listed for sale for $27.5 million in 2021 before the price was reduced to $18 million. The property was eventually sold in 2023 to a limited liability corporation that renamed it San Rafael Ranch.

New Mexico DOJ spokesman Lauren Rodriguez said the current owners - the family of Texas real-estate developer Don Huffines - granted investigators access to search the property and nearby public land.

Epstein’s ranch has long been alleged to have served as one of several locations where the financier trafficked and abused young women, alongside properties in New York, Florida and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Civil filings have claimed that prominent guests visited the compound, including Britain’s (former) Prince Andrew, who was accused by Epstein accuser Virginia Giuffre of being one of the men she was trafficked to. Andrew has denied wrongdoing. There have also been unverified claims by contractors and journalists that former President Bill Clinton and other prominent figures spent time at the ranch, although Clinton denied being there during a deposition before Congress.

Accuser Maria Farmer has said she and her younger sister Annie were brought to Zorro Ranch in 1996 under the pretense of working on an art project. Maria has alleged that she was sexually assaulted by Epstein and his associate Ghislaine Maxwell, who was convicted in 2021 of child sex trafficking and is currently serving a 20-year federal prison sentence. Annie Farmer has said she was 15 when she was flown to the ranch and directed by Epstein and Maxwell “to take off all her clothes and get on a massage table.”

Since plans for the Truth Commission were announced, Romero said lawmakers have received between 25 and 30 tips from people claiming to have information about activities at the ranch.

“We have this massive international story in New Mexico and all these potential conspiracies, horrible things that have happened there,” she said. “We don't know what's fact from fiction, but owe it to the people of our state to sort through these threads of information and get answers.”

Republican state Rep. Andrea Reeb, a former prosecutor who plans to sit on the commission, said the state has not done enough to examine what happened at the ranch.

“Zorro Ranch has given New Mexico a black eye. We as a state haven't been aggressive enough on figuring out what happened there,” Reeb said.

“My main interest is to see if we can bring justice to some of the victims.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 12:20

First Deutsche Bank, Now UBS Warns U.S. Airlines "Nearly 100% Unhedged" Against Energy Shock

Zero Hedge -

First Deutsche Bank, Now UBS Warns U.S. Airlines "Nearly 100% Unhedged" Against Energy Shock

Building on Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Linenberg’s warning last week that surging jet fuel prices pose an "existential threat" to airlines, analysts at UBS offered their own take on the unfolding energy shock set to unleash turbulence across the industry, noting that U.S. airlines are "nearly 100% unhedged" against jet fuel costs above $4 per gallon.

"US airlines are nearly 100% unhedged, with only DAL's refinery providing it a partial hedge against jet crack spreads. As such, the earnings degradation at $4+ fuel is likely to be significant and widespread," analyst Atul Maheswari wrote in a note on Monday.

Maheswari said Delta, United, and Southwest could still deliver a "meager profit" with Jet A fuel prices over $4, but "none of the other airlines will make money if fuel remains at these levels, with some airlines likely to be deep in the red."

The hit to airlines' first-quarter results will be noticeable but somewhat muted because the energy shock is coming late in the quarter, and airlines typically carry two weeks of inventory.

Maheswari said the real deterioration will come in the second quarter:

We note the impact on 1Q, while material, is cushioned by the fact the fuel spike happened late in 1Q and that airlines tend to carry 2 weeks of inventory. The impact on 2Q, though, could be significant. We continue to believe that DAL, UAL, and LUV are relatively better positioned to navigate higher fuel. AAL and several smaller airlines are more vulnerable.

Based on our math, fuel sustaining at these levels through 2Q could push DAL's 2Q EPS to $1.13, down 55% versus our current $2.49 estimate. For LUV, our 2Q EPS would go to $0.57 vs. $1.81 currently. UAL's 2Q EPS has potential to move lower to $0.96, down 80% vs. our $4.78 estimate. AAL would turn to a 2Q loss of -$0.31 vs. our current forecast of +$1.39. ALK would have a modest 2Q loss, while JBLU, ALGT, and ULCC are likely to generate a significant 2Q loss.

We assumed current fuel price (Gulf Coast $3.82/gallon) and added an incremental spread for distribution and other items based on the average historical spread reported by each for 2025. We also assumed 200 bps higher RASM relative to our published current estimate for 2Q in our analysis.

In an unlikely scenario where jet fuel stays at these levels in 2H'26 as well, it would imply about $3 in FY'26 EPS for DAL (vs. UBSe $7.17). LUV's EPS could be about $1.60 (vs. UBSe $5.05), and UAL's $2.35 (vs. UBSe $13.56). This is after assuming 200 bps higher RASM relative to our current estimates. AAL, ALK, and other smaller airlines would witness losses for FY'26 in this scenario. Full details on the impact for each airline by quarter are in figure 1.

The result of the energy shock will be "earnings degradation" that will force airlines to "quickly move to cut capacity," the analyst said. This warning echoes DB's Linenberg warning last Friday that the "financially weakest carriers could halt operations." Read the note here.

UBS Chartbook on airlines:

EPS drag from higher fuel - US Airlines

Gulf Coast Fuel Prices

FY'25 Fuel as a Percentage of Sales - by Airlines

Feb-April of 2022 - Airline stock analysis during the fuel hike of 2022

The S&P 500 Airlines Index has erased much of the November-to-February gains.

This is incredibly bad news for U.S. travelers, as capacity cuts by the weakest airlines will only lead to higher ticket prices.

Professional subscribers can read the UBS note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 12:00

First Deutsche Bank, Now UBS Warns U.S. Airlines "Nearly 100% Unhedged" Against Energy Shock

Zero Hedge -

First Deutsche Bank, Now UBS Warns U.S. Airlines "Nearly 100% Unhedged" Against Energy Shock

Building on Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Linenberg’s warning last week that surging jet fuel prices pose an "existential threat" to airlines, analysts at UBS offered their own take on the unfolding energy shock set to unleash turbulence across the industry, noting that U.S. airlines are "nearly 100% unhedged" against jet fuel costs above $4 per gallon.

"US airlines are nearly 100% unhedged, with only DAL's refinery providing it a partial hedge against jet crack spreads. As such, the earnings degradation at $4+ fuel is likely to be significant and widespread," analyst Atul Maheswari wrote in a note on Monday.

Maheswari said Delta, United, and Southwest could still deliver a "meager profit" with Jet A fuel prices over $4, but "none of the other airlines will make money if fuel remains at these levels, with some airlines likely to be deep in the red."

The hit to airlines' first-quarter results will be noticeable but somewhat muted because the energy shock is coming late in the quarter, and airlines typically carry two weeks of inventory.

Maheswari said the real deterioration will come in the second quarter:

We note the impact on 1Q, while material, is cushioned by the fact the fuel spike happened late in 1Q and that airlines tend to carry 2 weeks of inventory. The impact on 2Q, though, could be significant. We continue to believe that DAL, UAL, and LUV are relatively better positioned to navigate higher fuel. AAL and several smaller airlines are more vulnerable.

Based on our math, fuel sustaining at these levels through 2Q could push DAL's 2Q EPS to $1.13, down 55% versus our current $2.49 estimate. For LUV, our 2Q EPS would go to $0.57 vs. $1.81 currently. UAL's 2Q EPS has potential to move lower to $0.96, down 80% vs. our $4.78 estimate. AAL would turn to a 2Q loss of -$0.31 vs. our current forecast of +$1.39. ALK would have a modest 2Q loss, while JBLU, ALGT, and ULCC are likely to generate a significant 2Q loss.

We assumed current fuel price (Gulf Coast $3.82/gallon) and added an incremental spread for distribution and other items based on the average historical spread reported by each for 2025. We also assumed 200 bps higher RASM relative to our published current estimate for 2Q in our analysis.

In an unlikely scenario where jet fuel stays at these levels in 2H'26 as well, it would imply about $3 in FY'26 EPS for DAL (vs. UBSe $7.17). LUV's EPS could be about $1.60 (vs. UBSe $5.05), and UAL's $2.35 (vs. UBSe $13.56). This is after assuming 200 bps higher RASM relative to our current estimates. AAL, ALK, and other smaller airlines would witness losses for FY'26 in this scenario. Full details on the impact for each airline by quarter are in figure 1.

The result of the energy shock will be "earnings degradation" that will force airlines to "quickly move to cut capacity," the analyst said. This warning echoes DB's Linenberg warning last Friday that the "financially weakest carriers could halt operations." Read the note here.

UBS Chartbook on airlines:

EPS drag from higher fuel - US Airlines

Gulf Coast Fuel Prices

FY'25 Fuel as a Percentage of Sales - by Airlines

Feb-April of 2022 - Airline stock analysis during the fuel hike of 2022

The S&P 500 Airlines Index has erased much of the November-to-February gains.

This is incredibly bad news for U.S. travelers, as capacity cuts by the weakest airlines will only lead to higher ticket prices.

Professional subscribers can read the UBS note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 12:00

Shots Fired At U.S. Consulate In Toronto As Iran War Fuels Terror Fears

Zero Hedge -

Shots Fired At U.S. Consulate In Toronto As Iran War Fuels Terror Fears

Submitted by The Bureau's Sam Cooper,

Police responded at 5:29 a.m. Tuesday to reports that someone fired shots at the American Consulate at University Avenue and Queen Street West in the heart of Toronto, in an incident that comes as Western security agencies confront growing fears that the Iran war is triggering retaliatory violence far beyond the Middle East.

In a public statement posted by Toronto Police Operations, police said they had located evidence of a firearm discharge, that no injuries were reported, and that officers remained on scene investigating. CityNews reported damage to a consulate door and about 10 shell casings outside the building.

On Monday, ABC News reported that a federal alert sent to law enforcement agencies said the United States had intercepted encrypted communications believed to have originated in Iran that may serve as “an operational trigger” for “sleeper assets” outside the country. According to ABC, the alert cited “preliminary signals analysis” of a transmission “likely of Iranian origin” relayed across multiple countries shortly after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the Feb. 28 U.S.-Israeli strike. ABC further reported that the encoded transmission appeared intended for “clandestine recipients” holding the proper encryption key, potentially to convey instructions to “covert operatives or sleeper assets” without using internet or cellular networks.

That warning aligns with a Department of Homeland Security threat assessment reviewed by Reuters, which said Iran and its proxies “probably” pose a persistent threat of targeted attacks in the Homeland, even though a large-scale physical attack is considered unlikely.

In Toronto, the consulate incident follows a string of shootings that has deepened fears of ideologically driven or conflict-linked violence.

The city has seen multiple Jewish institutions struck by gunfire in recent days, alongside a separate shooting at a boxing gym reportedly tied to an Iranian-Canadian critic of Tehran. Authorities have not publicly connected those incidents to the consulate shooting, but the pattern has heightened concern across the city.

Reflecting that alarm, Canadian newspaper columnist Brian Lilley wrote on X: “This is in the heart of Toronto. I know people who work in that [Consulate] building. Many of them are non-partisan civil servants who may not agree with this war. Political violence in Toronto has been normalized.”

The pattern is not confined to Canada. In Oslo, Reuters reported that a loud explosion struck the U.S. embassy early Sunday, causing minor damage but no injuries, in what Norwegian police said may have been a deliberate attack linked to the crisis in the Middle East. Reuters quoted Oslo police saying one hypothesis was terrorism, while other possibilities were also being explored. Investigators said they were searching for one or several perpetrators.

*   *   * 

Reminding readers that Jared Cohen, President of Global Affairs and Co-Head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute, warned investors on the GS Weekend Macro Call, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains cells across multiple emerging market countries and could begin activating them.

"What I am looking for next is that they have meaningful cells in the Tri-Border Area of Latin America, West Africa, and elsewhere. They could hit an embassy, they could hit a consulate, or they could hit a cultural center in any one of the twelve countries they have already attacked," Cohen explained. 

Read the report here. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 11:40

Shots Fired At U.S. Consulate In Toronto As Iran War Fuels Terror Fears

Zero Hedge -

Shots Fired At U.S. Consulate In Toronto As Iran War Fuels Terror Fears

Submitted by The Bureau's Sam Cooper,

Police responded at 5:29 a.m. Tuesday to reports that someone fired shots at the American Consulate at University Avenue and Queen Street West in the heart of Toronto, in an incident that comes as Western security agencies confront growing fears that the Iran war is triggering retaliatory violence far beyond the Middle East.

In a public statement posted by Toronto Police Operations, police said they had located evidence of a firearm discharge, that no injuries were reported, and that officers remained on scene investigating. CityNews reported damage to a consulate door and about 10 shell casings outside the building.

On Monday, ABC News reported that a federal alert sent to law enforcement agencies said the United States had intercepted encrypted communications believed to have originated in Iran that may serve as “an operational trigger” for “sleeper assets” outside the country. According to ABC, the alert cited “preliminary signals analysis” of a transmission “likely of Iranian origin” relayed across multiple countries shortly after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the Feb. 28 U.S.-Israeli strike. ABC further reported that the encoded transmission appeared intended for “clandestine recipients” holding the proper encryption key, potentially to convey instructions to “covert operatives or sleeper assets” without using internet or cellular networks.

That warning aligns with a Department of Homeland Security threat assessment reviewed by Reuters, which said Iran and its proxies “probably” pose a persistent threat of targeted attacks in the Homeland, even though a large-scale physical attack is considered unlikely.

In Toronto, the consulate incident follows a string of shootings that has deepened fears of ideologically driven or conflict-linked violence.

The city has seen multiple Jewish institutions struck by gunfire in recent days, alongside a separate shooting at a boxing gym reportedly tied to an Iranian-Canadian critic of Tehran. Authorities have not publicly connected those incidents to the consulate shooting, but the pattern has heightened concern across the city.

Reflecting that alarm, Canadian newspaper columnist Brian Lilley wrote on X: “This is in the heart of Toronto. I know people who work in that [Consulate] building. Many of them are non-partisan civil servants who may not agree with this war. Political violence in Toronto has been normalized.”

The pattern is not confined to Canada. In Oslo, Reuters reported that a loud explosion struck the U.S. embassy early Sunday, causing minor damage but no injuries, in what Norwegian police said may have been a deliberate attack linked to the crisis in the Middle East. Reuters quoted Oslo police saying one hypothesis was terrorism, while other possibilities were also being explored. Investigators said they were searching for one or several perpetrators.

*   *   * 

Reminding readers that Jared Cohen, President of Global Affairs and Co-Head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute, warned investors on the GS Weekend Macro Call, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains cells across multiple emerging market countries and could begin activating them.

"What I am looking for next is that they have meaningful cells in the Tri-Border Area of Latin America, West Africa, and elsewhere. They could hit an embassy, they could hit a consulate, or they could hit a cultural center in any one of the twelve countries they have already attacked," Cohen explained. 

Read the report here. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 11:40

Boeing Slides After Wiring Flaw Discovery Set To Delay Some 737 Max Deliveries

Zero Hedge -

Boeing Slides After Wiring Flaw Discovery Set To Delay Some 737 Max Deliveries

Boeing shares fell a little more than 3% in late-morning trading in New York after a new report from The Wall Street Journal stated that deliveries of some narrow-body 737 MAX jets would be delayed following the discovery of scratched wiring on newly built aircraft.

Boeing told the WSJ that each affected jet can be fixed within days and that the wiring flaw will not derail its target of delivering about 500 737 MAX jets this year, though March deliveries could be slowed.

The wiring issue is yet another manufacturing setback as Boeing tries to demonstrate to FAA regulators that it has improved quality control following the January 2024 midair door-plug blowout, the two 737 MAX crashes, and other quality-related issues related to the narrow-body jet.

Boeing shares fell 3.3% following the report, leaving the stock roughly flat on the year." 

Last week, a Bloomberg report cited people familiar with the talks as saying that the planemaker and China could agree to a 500-plane order for 737 MAX jets at the Trump-Xi summit later this month.

Goldman analysts led by Noah Poponak recently shared an aircraft delivery tracker with clients showing Boeing deliveries tracking at around 52 for February, including 43 737 MAX jets and 3 787s.

The WSJ report made no reference to which systems the flawed wiring affected. Hopefully, it was not critical flight systems.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 11:21

Boeing Slides After Wiring Flaw Discovery Set To Delay Some 737 Max Deliveries

Zero Hedge -

Boeing Slides After Wiring Flaw Discovery Set To Delay Some 737 Max Deliveries

Boeing shares fell a little more than 3% in late-morning trading in New York after a new report from The Wall Street Journal stated that deliveries of some narrow-body 737 MAX jets would be delayed following the discovery of scratched wiring on newly built aircraft.

Boeing told the WSJ that each affected jet can be fixed within days and that the wiring flaw will not derail its target of delivering about 500 737 MAX jets this year, though March deliveries could be slowed.

The wiring issue is yet another manufacturing setback as Boeing tries to demonstrate to FAA regulators that it has improved quality control following the January 2024 midair door-plug blowout, the two 737 MAX crashes, and other quality-related issues related to the narrow-body jet.

Boeing shares fell 3.3% following the report, leaving the stock roughly flat on the year." 

Last week, a Bloomberg report cited people familiar with the talks as saying that the planemaker and China could agree to a 500-plane order for 737 MAX jets at the Trump-Xi summit later this month.

Goldman analysts led by Noah Poponak recently shared an aircraft delivery tracker with clients showing Boeing deliveries tracking at around 52 for February, including 43 737 MAX jets and 3 787s.

The WSJ report made no reference to which systems the flawed wiring affected. Hopefully, it was not critical flight systems.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 11:21

World's Biggest Hedge Funds Crushed By Oil Price Surge

Zero Hedge -

World's Biggest Hedge Funds Crushed By Oil Price Surge

We knew something was off when Bloomberg reported yesterday that Balyasny's chief commodities strategist, Damien Courvalin, whom the multi-strat hedge fund poached from Goldman in 2023 after a 16-year span at the bank where he led the bank’s oil research and become one of the most prominent oil analysts on Wall Street, had left the hedge fund where he oversaw the fimr's central commodities intelligence effort, including implementation in cross-commodity portfolios, after the rollercoaster moves in oil.

We are just guessing, but Courvalin may have been just a bit bearish on oil: after all, he led Goldman’s research when the bank predicted, correctly, a price plunge in early 2020, just before oil prices fell below zero. He also covered gold, agriculture, natural gas and commodity asset allocation through his tenure at the bank.

There is another reason why Courvalin was likely bearish: according to Bloomberg, his (now former) employer Balyasny Asset Management declined by 3.5% last week after a 0.4% increase in the two months through February.

It wasn't just Balysani: according to Bloomberg, some of the world’s biggest hedge funds suffered hundreds of millions of dollars in losses last week after the war against Iran sent oil prices surging and triggered wild market moves, suggesting that short oil was among the most consensus trades within the hedge fund world, something we warned about in late 2025.

According to the report, Citadel’s main Wellington hedge fund lost 2% last week, with its macro business suffering declines. The fund was up 2.9% through February. ExodusPoint’s multistrategy hedge fund last week gave away all the gains it had notched up for the year; it had been up 2.6% in the first two months.

Other multi-strats also got crushed: Izzy Englander's Millennium Management, which manages  $86.7 billion, lost about $1.5 billion in the week through March 6, leaving it up just 0.75% this year through March 6. It had advanced 2% in the first two months. At Steve Cohen's Point72, the 1.1% decline during the week cut its advance this year through March 6 to 3.4%. Marshall Wace’s flagship Eureka hedge fund was down 3.7% last week, paring gains for the year to 2.4%, according to another person.

The Iran war sparked general market mayhem, as stocks, bonds and other asset classes saw a broad selloff since the US and Israel launched a series of strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, targeting the country’s leadership and strategic sites. Crude oil touched almost $120 a barrel earlier this week on concerns of output cuts as the conflict escalated before declining on Trump’s assurance that the war would resolve “very soon.” A weak jobs report out of the US and renewed anxiety about the private-credit industry also weighed on investor sentiment.

Hedge funds also suffered a blow from their bets on the UK rates market as well, as the strife in the Middle East forced a dramatic reassessment of Bank of England policy expectations and led to the worst week in more than three years. The policy-sensitive two-year gilt yield rocketed about 35 basis points in the five days through March 6 and continued to soar further on Monday.

As extreme market volatility continues, expect to see more bad news for funds who are not prepared for this kind of trading environment. The question is whether the degrossing associated with adapting to a surge in the vix will also lead to a reduction in the huge basis trade which has long been the biggest driver of profit for the multi-strat community, and whose blow up in March 2020 forced the Fed to step in with massive bailouts. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 11:20

World's Biggest Hedge Funds Crushed By Oil Price Surge

Zero Hedge -

World's Biggest Hedge Funds Crushed By Oil Price Surge

We knew something was off when Bloomberg reported yesterday that Balyasny's chief commodities strategist, Damien Courvalin, whom the multi-strat hedge fund poached from Goldman in 2023 after a 16-year span at the bank where he led the bank’s oil research and become one of the most prominent oil analysts on Wall Street, had left the hedge fund where he oversaw the fimr's central commodities intelligence effort, including implementation in cross-commodity portfolios, after the rollercoaster moves in oil.

We are just guessing, but Courvalin may have been just a bit bearish on oil: after all, he led Goldman’s research when the bank predicted, correctly, a price plunge in early 2020, just before oil prices fell below zero. He also covered gold, agriculture, natural gas and commodity asset allocation through his tenure at the bank.

There is another reason why Courvalin was likely bearish: according to Bloomberg, his (now former) employer Balyasny Asset Management declined by 3.5% last week after a 0.4% increase in the two months through February.

It wasn't just Balysani: according to Bloomberg, some of the world’s biggest hedge funds suffered hundreds of millions of dollars in losses last week after the war against Iran sent oil prices surging and triggered wild market moves, suggesting that short oil was among the most consensus trades within the hedge fund world, something we warned about in late 2025.

According to the report, Citadel’s main Wellington hedge fund lost 2% last week, with its macro business suffering declines. The fund was up 2.9% through February. ExodusPoint’s multistrategy hedge fund last week gave away all the gains it had notched up for the year; it had been up 2.6% in the first two months.

Other multi-strats also got crushed: Izzy Englander's Millennium Management, which manages  $86.7 billion, lost about $1.5 billion in the week through March 6, leaving it up just 0.75% this year through March 6. It had advanced 2% in the first two months. At Steve Cohen's Point72, the 1.1% decline during the week cut its advance this year through March 6 to 3.4%. Marshall Wace’s flagship Eureka hedge fund was down 3.7% last week, paring gains for the year to 2.4%, according to another person.

The Iran war sparked general market mayhem, as stocks, bonds and other asset classes saw a broad selloff since the US and Israel launched a series of strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, targeting the country’s leadership and strategic sites. Crude oil touched almost $120 a barrel earlier this week on concerns of output cuts as the conflict escalated before declining on Trump’s assurance that the war would resolve “very soon.” A weak jobs report out of the US and renewed anxiety about the private-credit industry also weighed on investor sentiment.

Hedge funds also suffered a blow from their bets on the UK rates market as well, as the strife in the Middle East forced a dramatic reassessment of Bank of England policy expectations and led to the worst week in more than three years. The policy-sensitive two-year gilt yield rocketed about 35 basis points in the five days through March 6 and continued to soar further on Monday.

As extreme market volatility continues, expect to see more bad news for funds who are not prepared for this kind of trading environment. The question is whether the degrossing associated with adapting to a surge in the vix will also lead to a reduction in the huge basis trade which has long been the biggest driver of profit for the multi-strat community, and whose blow up in March 2020 forced the Fed to step in with massive bailouts. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 11:20

Archer Accuses Flying Taxi Rival Joby Of Depending On Chinese Suppliers

Zero Hedge -

Archer Accuses Flying Taxi Rival Joby Of Depending On Chinese Suppliers

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

Flying taxi maker Archer Aviation has alleged that its rival Joby Aviation has been misleading regulators and investors for years by hiding its connections to China.

In a March 9 filing in federal court in California, Archer accused Joby of running a manufacturing unit in Shenzhen, China, for more than a decade that received government grants intended to spur technological development and of carrying out fraudulent business practices that gave it an improper competitive edge.

“Joby has falsely presented itself as a domestically rooted, American-made, fully vertically integrated aviation company while covertly relying on its Chinese manufacturing subsidiary,” Archer alleged in the filing.

The lawsuit alleges that the company later hid aerospace components shipped from that facility by falsely labeling thousands of pounds of imported components as mundane consumer goods such as hair clips, napkins, socks, and similar products.

This approach, the suit alleges, allowed Joby to “evade U.S. tariffs, distort competition, improperly secure government contracts and strategic partnerships, and circumvent national-security oversight.”

Archer’s counterclaim, filed in a lawsuit initiated by Joby, further argues that Joby secured at least $131 million in U.S. Air Force contracts while marketing its aircraft as committed to American innovation, raising national security concerns in areas in which Chinese supply chain dependencies were not fully disclosed.

Alex Spiro, an attorney for Joby, said in a statement to The Epoch Times that the company “doesn’t respond to nonsense.”

“Archer’s constant legal issues and flailing business operations have left it no choice but to resort to invented nonsensical theories,” Spiro said in a statement. “We will see them in court.”

The latest legal development is part of a counterclaim to Joby’s November 2025 lawsuit against Archer.

Joby accused its competitor of using stolen information from a former employee to secure a partnership deal with a real estate development company.

The air taxi maker called it “corporate espionage, planned, and premeditated.”

This is not the first time that Archer has been involved in a legal dispute.

A Joby Aviation air taxi outside of the New York Stock Exchange ahead of its listing in the Manhattan borough of New York City, on Aug. 11, 2021. Andrew Kelly/Reuters

In August 2023, Archer settled a case against Boeing-owned Wisk Aero over alleged trade-secret theft.

In February, Archer filed suit in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas, alleging that rival Vertical Aerospace recently redesigned its air taxi concept in a manner that infringes upon Archer’s patents.

Although the stocks of both Archer (ACHR) and Joby (JOBY) had a terrific 2025, they have struggled this year, with share prices falling by nearly 30 percent.

An Industry Taking Off

Flying taxis—also called electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft—have become a major industry worldwide, including in the United States and China.

The current market is valued at about $6.3 billion and is forecast to reach nearly $76 billion by 2035, according to Precedence Research analysts.

Although they are viewed as modes of transportation for wealthy clients, experts said they believe that they could eventually become a tool for individuals traveling to and from work.

“Flying taxis will be the fastest mode of transportation with lower traffic conjunctions and it gives a hassle-free experience to the consumers,” the analysts said in a Jan. 6 research note.

In summer 2025, President Donald Trump signed executive orders to “create a pilot program testing flying cars,” including air taxis.

Archer said on March 9 that the Department of Transportation and Federal Aviation Administration selected its partners in Florida, New York, and Texas to participate in the White House’s pilot program to bring electric air taxis to market.

Similar to nationwide robotaxi pilot initiatives, this initiative will allow Archer to collaborate with federal and state regulators and communities to “build trust and establish the playbook for safely scaling electric air taxis across the country.”

Joby said in February that it is partnering with Uber to launch a battery-powered aircraft ride-hailing service in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, this year.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 11:00

Archer Accuses Flying Taxi Rival Joby Of Depending On Chinese Suppliers

Zero Hedge -

Archer Accuses Flying Taxi Rival Joby Of Depending On Chinese Suppliers

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

Flying taxi maker Archer Aviation has alleged that its rival Joby Aviation has been misleading regulators and investors for years by hiding its connections to China.

In a March 9 filing in federal court in California, Archer accused Joby of running a manufacturing unit in Shenzhen, China, for more than a decade that received government grants intended to spur technological development and of carrying out fraudulent business practices that gave it an improper competitive edge.

“Joby has falsely presented itself as a domestically rooted, American-made, fully vertically integrated aviation company while covertly relying on its Chinese manufacturing subsidiary,” Archer alleged in the filing.

The lawsuit alleges that the company later hid aerospace components shipped from that facility by falsely labeling thousands of pounds of imported components as mundane consumer goods such as hair clips, napkins, socks, and similar products.

This approach, the suit alleges, allowed Joby to “evade U.S. tariffs, distort competition, improperly secure government contracts and strategic partnerships, and circumvent national-security oversight.”

Archer’s counterclaim, filed in a lawsuit initiated by Joby, further argues that Joby secured at least $131 million in U.S. Air Force contracts while marketing its aircraft as committed to American innovation, raising national security concerns in areas in which Chinese supply chain dependencies were not fully disclosed.

Alex Spiro, an attorney for Joby, said in a statement to The Epoch Times that the company “doesn’t respond to nonsense.”

“Archer’s constant legal issues and flailing business operations have left it no choice but to resort to invented nonsensical theories,” Spiro said in a statement. “We will see them in court.”

The latest legal development is part of a counterclaim to Joby’s November 2025 lawsuit against Archer.

Joby accused its competitor of using stolen information from a former employee to secure a partnership deal with a real estate development company.

The air taxi maker called it “corporate espionage, planned, and premeditated.”

This is not the first time that Archer has been involved in a legal dispute.

A Joby Aviation air taxi outside of the New York Stock Exchange ahead of its listing in the Manhattan borough of New York City, on Aug. 11, 2021. Andrew Kelly/Reuters

In August 2023, Archer settled a case against Boeing-owned Wisk Aero over alleged trade-secret theft.

In February, Archer filed suit in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas, alleging that rival Vertical Aerospace recently redesigned its air taxi concept in a manner that infringes upon Archer’s patents.

Although the stocks of both Archer (ACHR) and Joby (JOBY) had a terrific 2025, they have struggled this year, with share prices falling by nearly 30 percent.

An Industry Taking Off

Flying taxis—also called electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft—have become a major industry worldwide, including in the United States and China.

The current market is valued at about $6.3 billion and is forecast to reach nearly $76 billion by 2035, according to Precedence Research analysts.

Although they are viewed as modes of transportation for wealthy clients, experts said they believe that they could eventually become a tool for individuals traveling to and from work.

“Flying taxis will be the fastest mode of transportation with lower traffic conjunctions and it gives a hassle-free experience to the consumers,” the analysts said in a Jan. 6 research note.

In summer 2025, President Donald Trump signed executive orders to “create a pilot program testing flying cars,” including air taxis.

Archer said on March 9 that the Department of Transportation and Federal Aviation Administration selected its partners in Florida, New York, and Texas to participate in the White House’s pilot program to bring electric air taxis to market.

Similar to nationwide robotaxi pilot initiatives, this initiative will allow Archer to collaborate with federal and state regulators and communities to “build trust and establish the playbook for safely scaling electric air taxis across the country.”

Joby said in February that it is partnering with Uber to launch a battery-powered aircraft ride-hailing service in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, this year.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 11:00

Pages