Musk Responds To French Green Leader's Demand That X Be Shut Down

Update (1100ET): Upon seeing this exclamation from the dismally-polling Green leader. Elon Musk took to X (the platform she demands be shutdown for too much free-speechifying) to make some demands of his own...

I demand that she be shut down for treason against France!

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 6, 2026

As Remix News detailed earlier, French Green leader Marine Tondelier has reiterated her calls for social media platform X to be temporarily shut down, claiming its owner Elon Musk is using it to interfere in French politics and promote Marine Le Pen ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Tondelier, general secretary of the Ecologists and a declared presidential candidate, suggested that suspending X for one month would improve political debate in France.

“If X were to stop for a month, it would do a world of good for the French public debate,” she said, as cited by Libération.

She claimed the platform could not be treated merely as a question of freedom of expression or freedom of enterprise because it was controlled from the United States by an owner seeking to influence European politics.

“This tool is owned by someone based in the United States, with a supremacist ideology, who clearly wants to push Europe into total submission to the United States,” Tondelier said.

She also accused Musk of wanting Le Pen elected and argued that his intervention exposed what she described as the “hypocrisy” of the National Rally’s patriotism.

“The algorithm of this social network is rigged,” she claimed.

“The ‘ratings’ meant to indicate the veracity of posts are now a source of further fake news.”

Tondelier also complained that environmental claims she posts on the platform are routinely challenged and said female politicians face persistent cyberbullying.

In January last year, she said, “This network must be banned in Europe. Whether I leave it or not, it will still have an impact on the real world. It will contribute to destabilizing the next elections,” adding that X was a “source of suffering, as a politician and as a woman.”

Her comments followed Musk’s public endorsement of Le Pen last month.

Responding to an American account discussing her polling strength and the possibility of mass deportations under a National Rally government, Musk wrote, “She is France’s last hope.”

Despite the outburst, Tondelier remains a marginal contender in the presidential race.

Recent IFOP polling places her support at about 4 percent, with other surveys putting her between 3 and 5 percent.

Le Pen, by contrast, is polling at approximately 35 percent and is strongly positioned to reach the second round of the election.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 10:30

The post Donald Trump’s $24 Billion Tax on 401(k)s appeared first on CEPR.

Hyperscaler Bond Spreads Blow Out After Google Shocks With Another $25 Billion Bond Offering

After tightening sharply following last week's (pre-Situational Awareness) rout which sent hyperscaler CDS to the widest on record, AI bond spreads are blowing out again this morning - with SpaceX bonds - which have quickly emerged as the fulcrum bond security of the AI world - plunging this morning on news that for the third time in a year, Alphabet which has emerged as the credit (both on and off balance sheet) nexus of the AI supercyle, is looking to raise another $25 billion from its latest US investment-grade bond offering, a deal that will again test investor appetite for AI-related debt following a July selloff when bond AI-linked bond spreads exploded to all time wides.

The offering, which will very likely be upsizied (just as the illl-fated SpaceX bond offering) will be Alphabet's third since November.

In February, the Google parent issued more than $30 billion in new debt, including multiple non-US tranches. The offering followed a similar bond issuance from November 2025, when Alphabet sold $25 billion in debt, quadrupling its long-term debt to $46 billion. Since then Google's debt has surpassed over $100 billion and is rising at an astronomic pace; one can only hope the rating agencies don't notice. 

According to Bloomberg, Alphabet is offering notes in as many as 10 parts, with maturities ranging from two to 40 years. Initial price talk for the longest-tenored tranche is a premium of about 1.55 percentage points above Treasuries. No final decision has been made on the size, according to people familiar with the matter, however it is likely that - as always - there will be excess demand leading to significant oversubscription, with the bond then sliding after it starts trading.

Virtually every bank is an underwriter on the offering which will need all the help it can get: Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo are managing the sale, Bloomberg said.

Alphabet’s offering comes one month after Amazon issued an identical amount of debt, and just two weeks after the company again raised its 2026 spending outlook, which triggered fresh worries about whether massive artificial-intelligence investments will pay off. Investor appetite for bonds to help fund capex cooled in July as Alphabet increased its forecast to as much as $205 billion, more than double 2025’s outlays.

Meanwhile, as the market finally started paying attention to good, old on-balance sheet debt, the flood of off-balance sheet continued with BlackRock last week selling $12.5 billion of bonds tied to a Meta data center SPV in Texas. Initial demand was very poor, following soft interest for an offering by Amazon.com.

Immediately afterward, bond spreads across the Hyperscaler sector blew out to record wides in the secondary market, as we reported on multiuple occasions. 

However, following the historic short squeeze in the past week (sparked by.... nobody really knows) sentiment improved again as August began, helped by gains in US Treasuries.

“We’ve had a few days now of positive reactions from investors across corporates and especially technology,” said Brett Kozlowski, portfolio manager at GW&K Investment Management. “But another large debt deal will still test the depth of that and be worth watching.”

Sure enough, after sliding by almost 20bps in the past week, hyperscaler spreads have already cut their gains in half after blowing out by almost 10bps since Tuesday, a move that is set to accelerate as even more debt comes to market.

 Alphabet, which sold more than $50 billion of debt in the first half of 2026, and Amazon have led the AI-infrastructure borrowing spree. Alphabet last tapped the US high-grade debt market in February, before selling bonds in Swiss francs, British pounds, euros, Canadian dollars and Japanese yen. It also issued nearly $85 billion of shares two months ago.

The explosive growth in CapEx is why Alphabet posted its first quarter of negative cash flow since its 2004 initial public offering.

The hope is that at some point, all this massive investment will lead to a surge in EBITDA. The only problem is what happens if nearly-free Chinese open-weight models end up dominating the market while US hyperscalers duke it out in the biggest spending spree since the Nuclear arms race. And, as we reported overnight, that's precisely what is happening. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 10:14

 

 

I am up in Maine discussing economics and markets; bandwidth is hard to come by, as is reception. In the meanwihle, enjoy this 2019  Businessweek piece about the event

 

 

Talking Rates in the Maine Woods With Economists Over Good Wine
Taking place right before the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the gathering is a chance for money managers, traders, and economists to discuss crucial issues without restraint.
Businessweek, August 27, 2019

 

 

Let’s get this out of the way upfront: There is no such entity as the “Shadow Kansas City Federal Reserve Board.”

This isn’t a “The first rule of Fight Club” situation. No one denies that a gathering of money managers, bond traders, and economists has been taking place at Leen’s Lodge in Grand Lake Stream, Maine, for several decades. It’s just that most of the conversations are off the record or governed by the Chatham House Rule, which doesn’t allow identification of speakers without their permission. Many attendees have an affiliation with the Federal Reserve, as current or former employees, but aren’t authorized to speak on the Fed’s behalf.

The long weekend in Maine takes place shortly before the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, an event dating to 1982, held in Wyoming and hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve. Hence, the gathering became known in some circles as the “Shadow Kansas City Federal Reserve Board” because of the Fed affiliation of many attendees, more than a few of whom head off to Jackson Hole right after the gathering.

The group makes no claim to any official imprimatur. Instead, “Camp Kotok,” as it has become known—after David Kotok, chairman and cofounder of Cumberland Advisors, who began holding the meetings more than 20 years ago—has fishing and drinking and hiking and shooting and smoking of cigars in the pristine wilds of Maine, all of which may be great fun, but it’s hardly the reason to gather each year.

The main draw is the opportunity to discuss and debate the big issues of monetary policy, economics, and finance, with a like-minded group of serious policy wonks and high-profile money managers, away from the usual routines of the office. At dinner the dining room represents about $2 trillion in capital, not counting attendees from various governments and central banks from around the world.

In the past, discussion topics ranged far and wide; but this year, the focus was all Fed all the time: whether it should cut rates and by how much; if the inverted yield curve is signaling a recession; whether negative bond rates from Japan and Europe would make their way here. Perhaps the most passionate discussions were on the independence of the Federal Reserve in the face of unceasing pressure from President Trump.

Almost all attendees related similar anecdotes about presidential pressure on the Federal Reserve. Harry Truman famously called the entire Federal Open Market Committee to lunch at the White House, warning, “If you don’t cut rates, you are doing Stalin’s bidding.” Lyndon Johnson invited Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin to his ranch in Texas. LBJ threw Martin against the wall, saying, “Boys are dying in Vietnam, and Bill Martin doesn’t care.” Ronald Reagan’s chief of staff, Jim Baker, invited Fed Chairman Paul Volcker to the president’s library, adjacent to the Oval Office in the White House. With Reagan sitting next to him, Baker told Volcker, “The president is ordering you not to raise interest rates before the election.”

In each of these examples, pressure from the U.S. president was private, personal—and mostly effective. The very concept of a public dispute between a president and his own appointed Fed chair was unthinkable. Not only because it might roil the markets, but simply because adults don’t behave that way.

Alas, those were simpler times, decades before presidential tweeting was a thing. Before public bullying and harassment campaigns, there was direct and personal persuasion. The record suggests it was an effective way for presidents to influence monetary policy. Attendees at Camp Kotok repeatedly noted the current approach was not only unseemly but also had not ever been effective. The president calling out his hand-selected FOMC chair to an audience of 60 million-plus Twitter followers doesn’t seem to be having the desired result.

At the Jackson Hole gathering, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s  speech was a refresher on the history of monetary policy in the post-world war era. The section on current circumstances gave little comfort to a president apparently concerned about a possible recession and its potential effects on his reelection chances. Powell appears to have figured out three important things:

1. In the current era of low rates, low inflation, and modest economic expansion, the Fed’s rate policy is having little to no impact on stimulating the broader economy. Consumers have been buying big-ticket items such as houses and cars, regardless of modest increase in rates we’ve seen the past two years; we are still at historically low and accommodative levels. It’s noteworthy that corporations have been borrowing large sums of capital not to invest and hire, but to buy back their own shares. Lowering rates won’t change that behavior; if anything, it will only encourage more of it.

2. The Fed cannot offset an ill-advised trade war. The economy is having the expected textbook reaction to tariffs, treating them as an unnecessary tax on consumer spending, both here and abroad. If there was any expectation on the part of the occupants of the White House that this would cause the Fed to blink and cut rates, they appear to have been mistaken. “While monetary policy is a powerful tool that works to support consumer spending, business investment, and public confidence, it cannot provide a settled rule book for international trade,” Powell said.

3. Perhaps No. 2 above occurred because of the following: Powell seems to have deduced that Trump can’t fire him—at least, not without causing a constitutional crisis. This last conclusion allows the chairman to focus on protecting his institution from undue pressure from the president.

Simply stated, the Fed believes cutting rates is not the panacea the president believes it to be. Therefore the Fed would rather wait to cut rates when it would be much more effective—in a mild recession—than risk an increase in inflation from an even more accommodative stance than we’re in at present.

~~~

To be invited to Camp Kotok, you must check three boxes: First, a group member must nominate you as someone capable of adding to the conversation. Original ideas, thoughtful disagreement, and intelligent variant perspectives are all welcome.

Second, you must get the thumbs-up from Kotok.

Third, the rules mandate that each attendee brings a case of wine. The group contains some serious oenophiles, and you’d best bring your A-game. Lots of thought goes into the wine selection—along with 20-year-old Scotch whisky, rare tequila, and the occasional brandy. This year I brought two cases of a delightful Spanish albariño from Ramón Bilbao; it was a cheap (so two cases) and unexpected delicious treat. It made a surprisingly good impression in the face of overrepresented—and overpriced—Napa Valley cabernets.

Most evenings there is a featured discussion before dinner. Senators, governors, and representatives have made appearances. Every Saturday night there’s robust debate. The topics include currency issues, the latest crises, and economic philosophy. The theme of this year’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium was Challenges for Monetary Policy. So it was no coincidence that the debate, in Maine this year, ably moderated by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research LLC, was on Modern Monetary Theory, also called MMT. The surprising consensus was that whether it comes from the political Left or Right, MMT is inevitable. Expect future infrastructure projects, Medicare for all, and/or tax cuts to be funded by bonds authorized by Congress, issued by the Treasury, and purchased by the Federal Reserve. The group takeaway was as simple as it was snarky: “Free money! Whatever could possibly go wrong with that?!”

One cannot gather 50 economists and their ilk and not expect forecasting to occur. All participants answer 25 questions on where they think various prices and economic indicators will be one year hence. The stock market, unemployment, bond yields, gold, gross domestic product, yen, euro, inflation, oil, and other questions are not only discussed and forecast but gambled upon at $5 per prediction. I usually do pretty well, and this year I won $52. (Ties change the payouts.) Sizable side bets occur, and some people have been known to make rather large and ill-advised wagers under the influence of alcohol. I have done that, too, but thankfully, the rules preclude me from going into details.

There is a stable core of about 35 to 40 people, with a few newbies showing up each year to shake things up. Not everyone gets invited back. My slot opened up a dozen years ago when a Chicago currency trader decided to stand up in his canoe, flipping it over, sending everyone and everything on board into the lake.

My own tenure almost came to a premature end when I left a wet towel on a radiator to dry; it instead smoldered. Camp Kotok lore is that I almost burned down the cabin, and bank analyst Josh Rosner led a mock prosecution that evening to have me tossed out for my recklessness and negligence. My defense: This was no accident; I was trying to murder Rosner and his snoring bunkmate and fellow bank analyst Christopher Whalen, so the rest of us could get a night’s sleep. That this argument carried the day gives you some sense of the gallows humor of the dismal set who gather—and why I still get an annual invitation.

For a few years, electronic media were present in large numbers (including Bloomberg Radio and TV). One Friday evening, on Aug. 5, 2011, a television truck was accidentally still present—it couldn’t exit the narrow parking area because a car with a missing set of keys blocked the way—when Standard & Poor’s unexpectedly downgraded the credit quality of the U.S. It was a television producer’s dream, a huge news event scoop, with a live TV feed and a few dozen tipsy economists happy to chat about it, alcohol-induced buzz be damned. These were the first people to share their views with the world about what the downgrade meant. The consensus that it mattered much less than people feared was borne out by the subsequent course of history.

This year the concerns were focused on the many conundrums of monetary policy. The inverted yield curve—when short-term bonds pay a higher yield than the rates paid on longer-term bonds—is worrying, and the main question being debated was whether it was foreshadowing a recession or a sign that interest rates are still too low.

Yet the U.S. has the highest rates in the developed world, which is not ideal, in several economists’ view. The risk is a “giant flow of currency to the U.S.” to capture that yield, and an “overvalued dollar that is way too strong.”

Negative interest rates were even more worrying to the group. The entire economic system, it was pointed out, is based on positive interest rates. And if rates flip negative in the U.S., as they already have in Germany and Japan, no one knows what will happen.

 

 

Photos and videos here

 

 

 

Source:
Talking Rates in the Maine Woods With Economists Over Good Wine
Barry Ritholtz
Businessweek, August 27, 2019

 

The post Returning to Camp Kotok appeared first on The Big Picture.

Federal Review Finds 90% Of Maine's Autism Support Services Lacks Justification

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz revealed Tuesday that federal investigators have found widespread irregularities in Maine’s support services for adults with autism.

Speaking Tuesday during a Department of Justice anti-fraud press conference in Philadelphia, Oz said investigators have found that 90 percent of autism services provided by the blue state lacked justification.

“Yesterday I was in Maine,” Oz said. “We’re investigating home support services, just like you’re seeing here, for adults, in that case, who have autism.”

“We have massive increases that have grown to the kinds of numbers you could not imagine being able to show on a clipboard, with 90 percent of services billed and paid for—in Maine in particular—where there is no justifiable backup for it,” Oz said. “Nine out of ten services, you can’t justify they should have happened. It’s the opposite of what you’d normally expect.”

The Trump administration has been urging states to increase oversight of Medicaid autism services, and examine whether a massive surge of spending on a new therapy called “applied behavior analysis” is medically appropriate, Axios reported.

During the press conference Tuesday, state and federal prosecutors announced charges of 19 defendants in connection with a $4 million scheme to defraud government-run Medicare and Medicaid system in Pennsylvania.

Federal officials detailed several new anti-fraud initiatives, including “expanded Medicaid Strike Forces, new investigative toolkits for states and enhanced data analytics designed to identify suspicious billing patterns before taxpayer money is paid,” Maine Wire reported.

Oz did not identify the providers under review, specify the total amount of claims being examined or announce any criminal charges connected to Maine. He also did not allege that every unsupported claim constituted fraud. Instead, he said the findings demonstrate the need for significantly greater oversight of Medicaid-funded home support programs.

Nevertheless, his remarks represent a major escalation in the Trump administration’s examination of MaineCare spending.

Federal officials have spent months reviewing Maine’s administration of Medicaid-funded autism and developmental disability services. Earlier this year, federal auditors questioned tens of millions of dollars in payments involving rehabilitative and community support services while requesting additional records from the Mills administration concerning providers and billing practices.

Far-left Maine Democrat Senate candidate Troy Jackson’s health care platform is focused on passing a government run “Medicare for All” insurance system to replace the current system.

Oz said programs that were originally designed to help disabled Americans have increasingly become vehicles for fraud.

“We have no tolerance for anyone who invents hours, invents a disability, invents a workforce at the expense of people who depend on these programs,” Oz said. “And if you love these most vulnerable Americans, you should care as well.”

The CMS administrator told reporters that the COVID-19 pandemic was the catalyst for the explosion of fraudulent Medicaid schemes currently plaguing the country.

“What happened in 2020 that has catalyzed this?” Oz asked. “COVID appears to have unleashed massive fraud because criminals knew the federal government would not follow up on the money that was being sent out.”

The Trump administration, he said, has adopted an “all-of-government” strategy deploying the Department of Justice, the Department of Health and Human Services, the FBI, the Drug Enforcement Administration, the IRS Criminal Investigation Division and state attorneys general to identify and prosecute Medicaid fraud.

“They’re not just stealing money, they’re stealing our trust,” Oz said of the fraudsters. “And that’s a much more difficult thing to replace.”

At the close of the nearly two-hour long presser, Assistant Attorney General Colin McDonald delivered a stern warning to those defrauding government health care programs.

“The era of getting rich off the backs of our programs for our sick, elderly and disabled is over,” McDonald said. “Your time is up.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 09:20

Situational Awareness Returns With $400M Investment After Nearly Collapsing

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

Situational Awareness, the hedge fund founded by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, reportedly invested $400 million in a privately held company days after it nearly collapsed under margin calls.

The fund invested $100 million in the same unnamed company in July, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. 

The latest investment was completed on Tuesday.

Cointelegraph has approached Situational Awareness for comment.

Assets at Situational Awareness fell about 78% in July, as an AI-stock sell-off triggered margin calls from Wall Street lenders.

The fund sought fresh capital and considered selling stakes in private companies, according to the Financial Times.

“We took the steps that were necessary to fight another day,” Aschenbrenner told investors in a letter on Friday.

“But our fund must always be structured such that we can take a loss and fight another day. I will make it my mission to ensure that we learn the necessary lessons from this experience.”

The fund subsequently sold most of its public equity portfolio to Ken Griffin’s Citadel, allowing it to repay lenders and retain its private holdings.

*SITUATIONAL AWARENESS MAKES INVESTING RETURN WITH $400M BET

this time with 8x TRS leverage pic.twitter.com/kXY7MQa0Px

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 6, 2026

Situational Awareness had invested heavily in power and data centers supporting AI, including Bitcoin miners expanding into AI computing.

A May 18 filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission covering holdings as of March 31 showed about $1.11 billion in positions across seven Bitcoin mining stocks, including IREN, Core Scientific, Riot Platforms and CleanSpark.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 08:50

Initial Jobless Claims Remain Near 57-Year Lows

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time held below 200k again last week...

...basically hovering at its lowest since 1969...

Pennsylvania and New Jersey saw claims rise the most last week while North Carolina and Ohio saw the biggest decline...

Continuing jobless claims ticked up, just above 1.8 million Americans...

After ADP's disappointing job additions, it appears the 'low hire, no fire' economy is entrenched.

Will tomorrow's payrolls print confirm that?

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 08:40

Celsius Shares Crash As Revenue Misses Estimates

Celsius Holdings, the Florida-based beverage company with a portfolio of some of America's top-performing energy drinks, reported weaker-than-expected second-quarter results, as revenue, adjusted earnings, and profitability missed Wall Street estimates.

Second-quarter adjusted earnings fell to 36 cents per share from 47 cents a year earlier, below the 41-cent Bloomberg Consensus estimate. Revenue increased 11% to $817.9 million but missed the $872.6 million estimate, with North American sales of $790.7 million also falling short.

Profitability deteriorated despite sales growth. Gross margin narrowed to 48.1% from 51.5% as promotional activity, channel mix, and aluminum inflation weighed on results. Net income fell 45% to $55.3 million, while adjusted earnings declined to 36 cents per share from 47 cents. Adjusted EBITDA dropped 12% to $184.2 million.

2Q Earnings Snapshot:

Adjusted EPS 36c vs. 47c y/y, estimate 41c (Bloomberg Consensus)

EPS 14c vs. 33c y/y, estimate 40c

Revenue $817.9 million, +11% y/y, estimate $872.6 million

• North America revenue $790.7 million, +11% y/y, estimate $847.3 million
• International revenue $27.2 million, +9.7% y/y

Gross margin 48.1% vs. 51.5% y/y, estimate 48.6%

Adjusted Ebitda $184.2 million, -12% y/y, estimate $198.4 million

Celsius shares plunged 16% in premarket trading. 

"During the second quarter of 2026, we made meaningful progress in advancing Celsius Holdings as a scaled portfolio of leading brands. We delivered a double-digit increase in second-quarter revenue, completed the Rockstar integration, and maintained gross margin near first-quarter levels despite a challenging commodity environment," CEO John Fieldly wrote in a press release.

Celsius Holdings' portfolio, which includes CELSIUS, Alani Nu, and the U.S. and Canadian Rockstar Energy business, accounts for about 20% of U.S. ready-to-drink energy sales. PepsiCo serves as the company's primary distribution partner.

Notably, the national average price for regular 87-octane gasoline remained mostly above $4 per gallon in the quarter, a key threshold at which consumer behavior begins to shift through trade-downs and reduced discretionary purchases. Goldman Sachs analyst Bonnie Herzog previously flagged a slowdown in energy-drink demand beginning in mid-May. Read the full note here.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 08:35

The BoJ And The Fed Just Made Gold Obvious

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

Between the market’s reaction to Warsh’s recent no-rate-hike announcement and the current disaster unfolding with the Japanese yen, the set-up for near-term “Uh-Oh” in stocks and bonds in general–and the longer-term wisdom in precious metals in particular– couldn’t be more obvious.

Stick to the Essential

Antoine de St. Exupery famously (and wisely) wrote that the “essential is invisible.”

In philosophical matters pertaining to the art of living, this phrase has great depth.

But in matters pertaining to market risk and economic forecasting, it will come as no surprise to anyone familiar with our views that the “essential lies in the bond market.”

As bonds fall in trust, demand and hence price, their yields then rise.

And these yields (the highest in decades) represent the true cost of sovereign debt, which we all know is beyond sustainability.

At $40T in comical, mismanaged and criminally negligent public debt, the last thing the USA needs today are rising yields at the long end of its sovereign bond market, especially with over $8T of those bonds facing a re-fi (at a much higher rate) in the next 12 months.

Right now, America pays $3B per day on just the interest expense of its public debt.

As I’ve said countless times: Spiking yields and hence spiking debt costs are like shark fins to policy makers drowning in a debt-storm of their own doing.

The collision of these rising yields and rising debt levels mathematically means more currency debasement will be engaged to inflate away Uncle Sam’s increasingly grotesque bar tab.

This also means gold’s anti-fiat role as a store of real rather than fiat value/money is just beginning to stretch its legs.

So, how do we know what’s coming for gold in such a global monetary sea-change?

That’s easy. In fact, Japan’s yen and the Fed’s Warsh just told us so.

What the Yen’s Summer Collapse Really Means

As for the yen, it just reached its weakest levels against the USD in four decades.

This Japanese currency fall is the direct result of decades of extreme money printing, repressed interest rates and a debt/GDP ratio that waters the eyes.

(Sound familiar?)

Japan’s latest finance minister (they come and go like melting snowflakes) tried to save their yen with $73B worth of currency support (thanks to a massive Japanese sale of USTs).

But that strategy clearly failed.

Equally unsuccessful was Tokyo’s attempt to raise interest rates to a whopping 1% in June (the highest levels seen since the 1990’s).

This was pathetic, especially given the fact that for my entire market career, Tokyo ran zero to even negative rates.

The Carry Trade Is Over

Of course, at zero to negative rates, Japan became THE go-to lender for the global shadow banking and corporate elites, who would happily borrow yen for nothing and then convert those yen into trillions of dollars for massive leverage in the S&P and NASDAQ.

The fancy lads called this the Japanese “carry trade.” It was an absolute boon for American stocks.

But folks, the Japanese banks are now cutting off that free money spigot.

The carry trade (which saw its first hiccups in August of 2024) is now over, and the ripple effects are swelling into tidal waves racing toward your 401Ks.

The Market Pain Is Just Beginning

If you haven’t already noticed, the NASDAQ just saw its worst July in decades, which had a lot to do with all the selling of tech stocks by Japanese firms, which are now bringing their money home in order to desperately yet realistically exploit the biggest currency arbitrage in decades.

After all, when the yen is at historical lows, what better time than now for Japan to cash in on stronger dollar-based stocks?

Unfortunately, the timing couldn’t be worse for American stocks and bonds, as Japan’s actions don’t exist in a vacuum.

When the BoJ raises rates and the carry trade ends in a backdrop of hedge funds closing their levered stock positions, those same masters of the Wall Street universe have no choice but to buy back yen to close their credit obligations.

In order to get this cash, those same fund managers (and many large corporate C-suites) must also sell a whole lot of U.S. stocks and USTs.

We are talking lots and lots of them.

This translates to a perfect storm of Japanese and global hedge funds simultaneously selling risk assets at the apex of an undeniable market bubble.

This is serious.

Not only will criminally negligent and AI-over-exposed tech stocks feel the selling pain, but an equally massive sell-off in USTs is converging this summer.

This means falling bond prices and yes, you guessed it: Spiking yields.

Ouch.

Once again (and as seen in March of 2020, fiscal year 2022, or Liberation Day of 2025), stocks and bonds are falling together rather than hedging each other’s risk.

As warned for years, the classic 60-40 stock-bond portfolio couldn’t be more useless as a modern risk hedge.

This is because bonds are no longer a safe haven in a backdrop of such an unprecedented and unsustainable sovereign debt profile.

This profile, of course, poses a problem for wordsmiths at the Fed, and Kevin Warsh’s words are worth translating from spin to reality.

Warsh Enters a Broken Stage

Unlike the Volcker era where U.S. public debt was measured in billions rather than trillions, Warsh, like Powell, can never fight inflation via rate hikes for the simple reason that DC’s bar tab can’t afford higher rates.

Any rate hikes to allegedly “fight” openly misreported inflation eventually just forces the Fed to expand/print more debased and mouse-clicked dollars to pay down the rate hike.

This is a nation within a fiscal dominance trap which renders any so-called anti-inflationary rate-hike policy inherently, well: Inflationary.

The parabolic rise in U.S. M2 money supply speaks for itself:

It was thus hardly any nail-biter that no rate hike was announced in July.

Translating Fed-Speak into Common Sense

What I found more entertaining, however, were the Fed Chairman’s platitudes at the press conference which came immediately after the announcement of unchanged rates.

In particular, I was fascinated by the following Warsh comments, namely:

“The FOMC, by a 9 to 3 vote, decided to maintain the target range of the Fed Funds Rate of 3.5 and 3.75%.”

“The economy is showing impressive resilience.”

“Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.”

Hmmm…

As always, one must congratulate these Fed lords for their impressive ability to effectively say the sky is green and the grass is blue with such confidence and regularity that it almost seems true.

What Warsh didn’t say is: 1) that inflation far outpaces the Fed Funds Rate; 2) the “impressive resilience” of our economy ignores record credit card delinquencies and car-loan repossessions which outpace the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, or the lowest reported reading ever measured at the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index; and 3) that we’ve seen over 15 months of consecutive downward revisions of his so called “job gains.”

In short, and with the calm (and haircut) of a media prompt-reader, Warsh managed to say three fictions in less than 30 seconds without changing expression.

This spin is nothing new at all to those familiar with Fed-speak.

By itself, it cannot explain why the DOW then fell by 1000 points and yields on the long end of the curve went moon-bound following the Warsh press conference.

Warsh Said the Quiet Part Out Loud

Such open and violent market reaction came from something else which Marsh said, and it’s worth repeating here because it amounts to a subtle confession of what we’ve been warning with blunt consistency, namely that the Fed will eventually lose control of the bond market.

Specifically, and at the beginning of the Warsh press conference, Warsh was directly asked why nine FOMC members (Warsh among them) did not vote to raise rates.

His response was nothing short of astounding when one reads between the lines:

“Rates are higher today than they were 42 days ago. Markets have made decisions because we stepped back in part from trying to influence those. Market judgements have moved up on what nominal rates are across the Treasury curve… Markets are reacting in real time. Monetary policy matters not by just what we say, or even what we do…These prices we see in financial markets is one of the many ways in which [monetary policy] effects the real economy”

Translated into real-speak, what Marsh really said boils down to this: “Rates are rising without the Fed having to raise them because the markets no longer trust our IOUs and are setting a risk premium of their own, which is outside our control.”

This is scary. But it’s also no surprise at all.

The Fed is Losing Control of the Bond Market

Eventually, the bond market itself (and not the Fed’s rate or balance sheet policies) will determine bond yields and hence debt pricing.

And that pricing (as measured by boring things like bond yields) is ripping fatally and uncontrollably north.

This rising cost of debt, driven by distrust of weaponized and over-indebted IOUs, in conjunction with massive waves of more sellers (think Japan above) than buyers of Uncle Sam’s debt, will only get worse.

This also means that stocks supported by cheap debt will tank, and bonds unloved by the world will do the same.

The Only “Solution” is Worse than the Cure

Unless, of course, the Fed steps in to control those yields with trillions of direct or indirect QE to purchase these objectively unloved bonds.

But this inevitable and essential “solution” for our openly dying bond market comes with a fatal cost—namely continued currency debasement as Uncle Sam sacrifices (debases) his ever-expanding dollar to save (pay for) his ugly IOUs.

This sacrificing of paper money to save over-stretched bonds is the oldest and most desperate trick in a long history of once-great nations facing a debt crisis and hegemonic turning point.

It All Comes Back to Gold

The bond market is indeed everything, and what it is telling you far more honestly than the American Fed or Japanese BoJ is that your fiat money is consistently losing absolute purchasing power in plain sight.

This explains why a deliberate fire-sale in precious metals was unleashed early in 2026 to allow the whales to accumulate real money (gold) while the masses stare at their tech positions (and losses).

As usual, Main Street is the last to get the memo on gold. They got shaken out with price manipulations and price headlines while the smiling whales bought the world’s most important asset at a discount.

This also means that if you measure your wealth in paper currencies rather than physical gold, you are being robbed in equally plain sight.

The Whales, of course, don’t care, and they don’t want you to know.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 08:25

Futures Flat As Tech Slides After Memory Stocks, Korea Tumble

US futures are mixed with S&P futures modestly higher offset by a slide in tech: as of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1% while Nasdaq futures drop 0.5%, hit by a plunge in Sandisk (down 9% in pre-market), and rival Western Digital which tumbled 15%, after both companies reported earnings. AppLovin also slumped 16% after missing revenue estimates while DataDog tumbled as much as 18% after guidance wasn't strong enough, and pushed Nasdaq to session lows. Mag 7 stocks are mixed (AAPL +1.0% and GOOGL +0.7% are among the outperformers). Asian stocks declined, led by losses in heavyweight chipmakers following earnings reports from US peers that renewed concerns over the stretched rally in memory-related shares. European shares were more resilient and advanced for a 4th day on hopes of an Iran deal (that was supposed to happen two days ago) as strong earnings boosted sentiment, with WPP Plc leading gains in the media sector. Bond yields are 1-2bp higher. Commodity prices were mostly higher: base metals are all higher this morning; gold +0.6%, while silver -0.4%. Overnight, not many incremental updates on US/Iran, with investors waiting for the details of the Iran/Oman deal around the Strait of Hormuz.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher, offseting a plunge in chip/memory names (Apple +1.1%, Amazon +0.7%, Meta +0.5%, Alphabet +0.5%, Nvidia +0.6%, Tesla unchanged, Microsoft -0.6%)

• Albemarle (ALB) gains 3% after the chemicals company reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat the average analyst estimate on strong lithium prices.
• AppLovin (APP) drops 19% after the mobile-app marketing company reported revenue for the second quarter that was slightly below the average analyst estimate. The company’s forecast for adjusted Ebitda and adjusted Ebitda margin also came in below consensus expectations.
• Celsius (CELH) drops 17% after the energy drink maker’s adjusted EPS and revenue fell well short of Street expectations.
• Constellation Energy (CEG) rises 4% after the nuclear power plant operator boosted its adjusted operating earnings per share forecast for the full year.
• Datadog (DDOG) slumps 17% after the software company posted an adjusted gross margin for the second quarter that trailed the average analyst estimate.
• Duolingo (DUOL) falls 8% after the language-learning software company gave a revenue and bookings forecast for the third quarter that fell short of expectations.
• Figma (FIG) falls 15% after the creative software platform gave revenue guidance for the third quarter that disappointed Wall Street. The firm also posted a second-quarter operating margin that dropped from the first quarter.
• Fiserv (FISV) falls 9% after the fintech slashed its full-year profit outlook and posted quarterly earnings that fell short of analyst estimates as revenue slumped.
• Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) declines 14% after the aerospace and defense company reduced its outlook for the full year to reflect supply chain issues.
• HubSpot (HUBS) is down 23% after the maker of customer-relationship management software forecast revenue for the current quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate.
• Sandisk (SNDK) is down 9% after the computer hardware company’s revenue forecast for the first quarter missed the average analyst estimate.
• Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) falls 3% after the amusement-park operator reported net revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• SoundHound AI (SOUN) jumps 26% after the software company reported better-than-expected second-quarter revenue.
• Sunrun (RUN) drops 12% after the home solar company cut its guidance for full-year cash generation, citing factors including reduced volumes from affiliate channels.
• Warby Parker (WRBY) falls 4% after the eyeglass company’s second quarter sales trailed the consensus estimate.
• Western Digital (WDC) falls 16% after the computer hardware and storage company forecast revenue for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate at the midpoint. Analysts note the company’s performance lags that of peer Seagate.
• Zillow Group Inc. (Z) is down 11% after the online real estate platform provided revenue forecast for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.

In other AI news, DeepSeek plans to implement a significant price increase across its AI services, an unusual shift from the disruptive Chinese player. OpenAI said the AI models behind the Hugging Face hack began working together to break out of their testing environment as early as May. And Meta Platforms said one of its AI models accessed the internet and hacked into an outside service’s systems during cybersecurity testing. In other corporate news, CME and FanDuel are scaling back a joint effort to take on prediction market startups. MercadoLibre shares are sliding in premarket trading as worries about the e-commerce giant’s spending plans are outweighing an estimate-beating quarter.

After big gains to start the week, stocks may be stuck in a holding pattern until Friday’s payrolls, while recent economic policy decisions are also causing some nervousness about US assets. AI concerns related to elevated capex, ROI and circular financing had dissipated in recent trading sessions, but seem to be back in focus; this is now a weekly thing with Risk On/Risk Off becoming AI Math on/AI Math off. SoftBank results showed a big investment gain on its Intel shares but muted gains in the value of its OpenAI investment and declines inside the Vision Fund portfolio. Microsoft is also making headlines, with disclosures showing it generates most of its AI revenue from OpenAI.

Sandisk and Western Digital both gave tepid revenue forecasts for next quarter, renewing concerns over the stretched rally in memory-related shares. The pair have been big contributors to S&P 500 gains this year, as we noted yesterday; both are sharply lower this morning, and this is a reminder how Wall Street analysts are zero signal and all noise: "Sandisk Corp PT Cut to $1,750 from $3,000 at Jefferies."

The semiconductor sector was also the focus in Asia as Korea’s Kospi Index fell 4.8% with SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. leading losses. “Investors are increasingly asking what incremental catalysts are needed to remain in the Asia memory trade,” said Gary Tan, a portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments.

SpaceX, meanwhile, may be in for another volatile day as $101 billion worth of stock becomes available for trading. It’s the first lock-up expiry of a staggered nine-stage structure, designed in an effort to dilute the impact of the vast amount of shares locked up. SPCX shares edged higher in premarket trading after the company’s first quarterly earnings report since its listing triggered a 14% slide.

The pause in the tech-led rally comes as investors reassess valuations after AI-related shares rebounded from last month’s selloff. Traders are also focused on Friday’s US non-farm payrolls data, which is expected to show a strengthening jobs market, as they look for clues to the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Meanwhile, Brent crude held at around $80 per barrel after Iran said it reached an agreement with Oman on a proposed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, raising the prospect of energy flows resuming through the critical waterway. But a lasting US-Iran deal that would help ease inflation and upward pressure on Treasury yields remains elusive, with President Donald Trump saying on Wednesday he would “see what happens” in ongoing negotiations. Tied to that perhaps, gold is extending its rise after the biggest jump in six months to touch $4,300/oz. Comex copper futures climbed to a record, tracking the push to reopen Hormuz, as gold had.

In macro data, tomorrow’s payrolls report “feels binary,” writes Bloomberg Macro Strategist Skylar Montgomery Koning. Another weak print boosts the case for doves, but a strong figure indicates June was an anomaly and brings expectations for the next hike forward.

“Until a more positive development in the Middle East is confirmed, and ahead of tomorrow’s important US employment data, markets have taken a wait-and-see stance,” said Karl Steiner, head of analysis at SEB. “This is reflected in the stock market development, a fairly unchanged oil price and small movements in the US 10-year Treasury yield.”

In politics, President Trump is preparing tariffs to slap minimum prices on imported polysilicon in a bid to boost domestic production of both the material and the chips and solar panels that it is used to make. The plans may materialize as soon as Thursday with levies being pitched at around 15%.

In hedge fund news, a spate of well-known funds reported steep losses in July as AI shares tumbled. TMT hedge funds lost an unprecedented 10% in July as they were forced to deleverage and liquidate positions as the AI trade lost momentum, according to JPMorgan strategists, citing preliminary data from analytics firm PivotalPath. One of the hardest hit, Situational Awareness, has already made its return to investing with a $400 million bet on a privately-held firm. Elsewhere in hedge funds, a slew of major hedge funds have had their information systems targeted by hackers in recent days. Point72 informed investors about the attack on Wednesday, while there were attempts to infiltrate Millennium Management, Two Sigma and Citadel too.

Fed’s Daly and Cook both spoke after the bell on Wednesday. Mary Daly said she supported the central bank’s decision to keep rates on hold, but warned of the possibility that high inflation is a broader problem that could require more aggressive action. Lisa Cook repeated a message that she is ready to raise rates if inflation doesn’t slow.

European shares advanced for a fourth straight day as strong earnings boosted sentiment, with WPP Plc leading gains in the media sector. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was 0.5% higher as of 11 a.m. in London. Spain’s Ibex 35, Italy’s FTSE MIB and France’s CAC 40 were also trading at new peaks. Germany’s DAX edged higher after factory orders rose by more than analysts forecast in June, another sign that a long-awaited recovery in Europe’s biggest economy may finally be taking hold. Media shares were the best performers as WPP soared the most since its 1995 debut after the advertising agency reported its turnaround efforts are gaining momentum. Among more than 30 companies reporting earnings today, Deutsche Telekom AG climbed 5.9% after Europe’s biggest phone carrier raised its share buyback program by as much as €3 billion ($3.5 billion). Banco BPM SpA gained 5.3% as it reported net income for the second quarter that surpassed estimates. Its Chief Executive Officer Giuseppe Castagna said the Italian lender would consider a tie-up with Credit Agricole SA. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• WPP shares soar as much as 30%, marking their biggest intraday advance on record, after the advertising agency reported a smaller-than-expected decline in organic sales in 2Q
• Deutsche Telekom shares rose as much as 5.9% after the German carrier boosted its share buyback program by up to €3 billion ($3.5 billion), a move analysts say reduces the risks of the firm using excess cash to buy out minority shareholders in T-Mobile US
• Hikma Pharmaceuticals shares jump as much as 11%, the most since September 2022, after the drugmaker reported better-than-expected sales and earnings for the first half-year
• SBM Offshore shares rally as much as 9.3%, the biggest jump since April 2025, after the service provider to the offshore oil and gas industry topped expectations in the first half
• Glanbia shares jump as much as 9.3%, their biggest jump in over three months, after the nutrition company delivered earnings ahead of expectations in the first half and improved its guidance for the full year
• Serco shares rise as much as 6.3%, the most since December, after the British outsourcing services provider increased its share buyback program by £75 million
• Renk shares rise as much as 7% after the German gearbox maker reported order intake for the first half-year that beat the average analyst estimate
• TP ICAP shares fall as much as 7.1% after an earnings beat and an extended buyback proved unable to sustain the stock’s strong performance this year
• Scout24 shares slide as much as 9%, the most since December 2021, as a lack of momentum in customer subscriptions overshadowed an in-line second quarter result at the online real estate platform
• Siemens shares fall as much as 6.4% as analysts see results in the Digital Industries business weighing on sentiment amid high expectations for the company’s earnings overall
• Adecco shares fall as much as 7.8% following second-quarter results, as the human resources provider and temporary staffing firm is likely to see continued gross margin pressure as well as weak industry sentiment
• Tritax Big Box shares fall as much as 5.2%, the biggest intraday drop since March, after the UK REIT raised £350 million through an equity placing that analysts said is dilutive in the near-term
• Aurubis shares fall as much as 8.4%, the most in a year, after the copper smelter announced a one-year delay to a new American smelting complex

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined, led by losses in heavyweight chipmakers following earnings reports from US peers that renewed concerns over the stretched rally in memory-related shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.2%, with SK Hynix, Samsung, TSMC and Kioxia among the biggest drags. South Korea’s Kospi slumped 4.6% with notable losses also in Hong Kong and Japan’s Nikkei. Memory and storage stocks mostly dropped after results from Sandisk and Western Digital that weren’t strong enough to impress investors. Last month’s brutal losses in chip stocks had pared somewhat over the past week, but the latest disappointment once again spurred dumping of tech versus buying of more defensive consumer and health shares. Here Are the Most Notable Movers

• Chip giant SK Hynix Inc. suffered its second short-lived share plunge in about a week, raising fresh questions about trading volatility on South Korea’s alternative stock exchange.
• AMP shares climbed to their highest level since 2019 after the wealth manager reported a surge in first-half net income, and announced additional share buyback.
• Nitto Boseki shares plunged as much as 19%, the most since March 9, after the glass product maker’s quarterly earnings presentation fell short of investors’ lofty expectations.
• Honda shares gained as much as 2.3% in Tokyo trading Thursday after the carmaker raised its full-year profit target by around 30%, helped by tailwinds from the weak yen. First-quarter profit also beat market estimates.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was steady while US 10-year yields were 1bp higher at 4.62%. The dollar traded in a narrow range versus most major peers with traders waiting to see how US payroll data on Friday may impact the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. “USD may get a knee-jerk bounce if the data surprises,” said Philip Wee, senior currency strategist at DBS Bank. Challenger jobs and initial jobless claims data due later on Thursday may provide insight into the US labor market. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1% with the move higher running out of steam as USD/JPY remains stuck below 158. Key markets:

• USD/JPY little changed at 157.77 (range 157.56 - 157.85)
• EUR/USD little changed at 1.1545 (range 1.1542 - 1.156)
• GBP/USD little changed at 1.3461 (range 1.3455 - 1.3473)

“Improved market sentiment in the Gulf has lent the dollar some weakness, but the greenback is still counting on very stable Fed rate expectations,” ING Bank NV strategists including Francesco Pesole wrote in a note. “The proximity to tomorrow’s US payrolls could favor a wait-and-see approach and limit FX moves today.”

In rates, treasuries are a touch lower. Yields are flat to up 2bps across the curve. Treasuries hold small losses as oil resumes rising, with an Iran-Oman agreement to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz under review.  Treasury yields cheaper by 1bp to 2bp with curve spreads little changed; 10-year is around 4.65%, cheaper by 3bps with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming slightly. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Nine borrowers priced a combined $18 billion Wednesday, lifting weekly volume to more than $43 billion. Issuers paid about 2bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.6 times covered. Focal points of US session include weekly jobless claims with July employment data ahead Friday.

Global bond and currency investors are debating if it’s time to dust off last year’s “Sell America” trade Bloomberg reports, after a flurry of economic-policy decisions out of Washington over the past two weeks.

In commodities, energy prices have been choppy with Brent struggling to hold above the $80/bbl handle. In precious metals gold is extending its rise after the biggest jump in six months to touch $4,300/oz. Spot gold is up 0.7%, while silver loses 0.2%. Comex copper futures climbed to a record, tracking the push to reopen Hormuz, as gold had. Bitcoin is down 0.1%. 

Today's US economic data calendar includes 2Q preliminary productivity and unit labor costs and weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and June wholesale inventories (10am). Fed speakers scheduled include St. Louis Fed President Musalem at 5:30pm.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• President Trump has spoken repeatedly with Kevin Warsh since he became chairman of the Federal Reserve, according to people familiar with the matter, maintaining a line of communication between a president and a central bank chief that departs from recent precedent. WSJ
• Kevin Warsh is set to stick to his stripped-back communications style even after the Federal Reserve chair’s decision to offer scant details of his strategy on interest rates fuelled a powerful sell-off in Treasury bonds: FT
• AI data centers are putting unexpected strain on power infrastructure, with rapid demand swings causing batteries, generators and cooling systems to wear out faster than expected. BBG
• OpenAI said the AI models behind the Hugging Face hack secretly communicated for months before escaping their testing environment. Separately, Meta disclosed one of its AI models hacked into another service’s system during safety testing. BBG
• DeepSeek plans to implement a significant price increase across its AI services, an unusual shift from the disruptive Chinese player that has put pressure on US and domestic rivals. DeepSeek's decision to raise prices could be an inflection point in China's AI market, where other top players have followed the company's playbook in offering low-cost and open-source services. BBG
• China launched a formal security review of products sold in the country by US technology firm Palo Alto Networks Inc.(PANW), ramping up pressure on the company months after accusing it of harboring links to intelligence services. BBG
• Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix face growing calls from investors wanting a greater share of excess cash via dividends or buybacks, after the pair provided scant detail on capital returns when reporting AI-driven record profit. RTRS
• Softbank disclosed a smaller-than-expected decline in net income, lifted by a boost from its stake in Intel. BBG
• Trump tells donors, ‘We need to elect JD,’ as vice president weighs his future. WaPo
• Mary Daly said she supported last week’s decision to hold rates but warned that high inflation may be a broader problem requiring more aggressive action. Lisa Cook repeated that she’s ready to hike if inflation doesn’t slow. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly lower following a similar performance stateside, where the Dow extended on its record levels, but the Nasdaq underperformed amid weakness in communication stocks, while the tech sector dragged overnight and tariff tensions resurfaced. ASX 200 climbed to a fresh record high with mining, materials and resources leading the advances, while trade data also showed a surprise surplus and a rebound in exports. Nikkei 225 retreated amid chip-related weakness and with Kioxia among the worst hit. KOSPI underperformed amid tech selling and as recent volatility continued to dent investor sentiment, with SK Hynix shares down about 8%, and had suffered another pre-market flash crash in which its shares dropped by the daily limit of 30% on the Nextrade bourse before ending the pre-market session down 2%. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed, with insurers pressured after Chinese tax authorities began levying personal income tax on returns of offshore insurance policies, while trade frictions continued to resurface after MOFCOM announced it would strengthen drone export controls to the US and will impose countermeasures on six US entities, as well as take countermeasures against US compliance-testing firms

Top Asian News

• Japanese PM Takaichi said a return to 8% food tax after two years isn't a hike, and a return to 8% food sales tax that will be needed for market trust, adding the benefit of a new tax credit system will exceed the tax cut.
• Japan and US companies, potentially joined by the UAE and other investors, plan to invest about JPY 2tln in Japan's largest AI data centre project, according to Nikkei.
• PBoC said it plans to expand yuan offshore market and explore expanding the central bank’s macroprudential and financial stability roles. PBoC is also exploring to boost cross-border yuan use.

European bourses are broadly higher. The FTSE MIB is outperforming, while the AEX and DAX 40 lag. Chip names are weighing on the AEX, and Siemens' earnings (disappointing FY sales guidance raise) are weighing on the DAX 40. Outside of earnings, not much in terms of a clear driver as markets await an announcement regarding the reopening of Hormuz. Sectors have a positive bias. Media leads, supported by strong WPP (+22.5%) earnings (Q2 operating profit beat estimates). Telecoms and Consumer Products & Services round out the sector outperformers. Basic Resources is the sector laggard, paring back some of Wednesday's gains, followed by Real Estate and Tech.

Top European News

• Swedish CPIF YoY Prel (Jul) Y/Y 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 1.3%); ex-energy 0.6% (prev. 0.4%).
• Swedish CPIF MoM Prel (Jul) M/M -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.3%); ex-energy 0.4%.
• Swedish Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Jul) Y/Y 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.7%).
• Swedish Inflation Rate MoM Prel (Jul) M/M -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.4%).
• EU Retail Sales MoM (Jun) M/M -0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%).
• EU Retail Sales YoY (Jun) Y/Y 0.7% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.6%).
• German Factory Orders MoM (Jun) M/M 3.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 1.9%).
• Spanish Industrial Production YoY (Jun) Y/Y 1.1% (Prev. 3.4%); M/M -0.7% vs Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 1.2%).

FX

• G10s mostly weaker against the Buck; SEK outperforms after hotter than expected inflation, Antipodeans lag amid the general risk tone.
• USD lacks direction, remaining just below 100.00 as it has done since the beginning of the week. Newsflow is light and markets still anticipate confirmation of an Iran-Oman agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, alongside the potential US-Iran Hormuz agreement; updates which, on the face of it, could pressure the Buck, though are largely expected by markets with Brent down double digits on the week. The likely next catalyst, aside from any potential re-escalation, will be the labour market data ahead of NFP on Friday. To remind, a soft ADP failed to spur a USD reaction. Fed Hawk Musalem is slated to speak and likely to stick alongside the hawkish remarks seen from Kashkari, Cook and Daly on Wednesday.
• EUR flat against the Buck with bloc-specific catalysts light ahead of US NFP on Friday, which will likely dictate price action. For now, EUR will likely sit within its recent 1.1540-1.1550 range after failing to breach 1.1560 overnight with a lack of newsflow.
• Swedish inflation cooled, albeit at a slower rate than expected. The hotter-than-expected print (vs. consensus and Riksbank fcst.) was sufficient to spark ~0.2% bid in the SEK against both the EUR and the USD, though not against NOK. EUR/SEK fell from just below 10.96 to a 10.93 base. While firmer than Riksbank had forecast, it likely endorses rather than changes the current path for rates, with markets fully assigning a 25bps hike by year-end. Both ING and Nordea maintain their view for year end, for unch. and one hike respectively.

Fixed Income

• Fixed benchmarks are in the red after starting the morning on the front foot amid initial energy pressure. In a similar playbook to Wednesday morning, the pickup in energy in the last few hours has placed modest pressure on fixed, which now finds itself lower across the board.
• For USTs, the losses are only a few ticks in magnitude, at a 108-26+ base. Ahead, we have a packed docket of data, before Friday’s Payrolls, and Fed speak. The latter point is increasingly interesting given the hawkish tone from some officials at, and since, the dissent seen in July. Today, Musalem (2028), who typically resides on the hawkish side of things, partakes in a moderated event.
• Bunds peaked at 125.36 overnight, firmer by 13 ticks. Since, as above, it has moved into the red and currently posts downside of 13 ticks at a 125.12 trough. The German-specific docket is light, but EGBs generally have to digest a decent amount of supply from France and Spain, which is concentrated around the 2036 area and will potentially be adding to the bearish bias across EGBs into the taps. Both auctions went well, with strong demand for the Spanish tap, while the 10yr French auctions topped the 3x b/c mark.
• Gilts directionally in-fitting, with losses of 28 ticks and as is typically the case they underperform during the energy-led move at this point. Specifics for the UK light, and may well continue to be for the near-term, as Parliament remains in recess until September 1st and the extended hold narrative for the BoE remains.
• France sells EUR 12.495bln vs exp. EUR 10.5-12.5bln 1.25% 2036, 3.70% 2036, 3.80% 2037 & 0.50% 2044 OAT.
• Spain sells EUR 5.315bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 2.60% 2031, 3.00% 2033, 3.40% 2036 Bono & EUR 0.728bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 2.05% 2039 I/L Bono.
• Japan sells JPY 455.8bln 30-yr JGBs; b/c 3.86x (prev. 4.55x), average yield 3.952% (prev. 3.993%), Tail in price 0.21 (prev. 0.04).

Commodities

• Crude prices swing between gains and losses with initial upside amid a lack of Iran deal newsflow whilst some supply-side headlines came into focus alongside overnight shipping strikes. Ukrainian President Zelensky says Ukraine struck Bashneft-Novoil (~150k BPD) and Slavneft-Yanos (300k BPD) refineries (the latter being one of Russia’s largest oil-processing facilities), two Russian patrol boats and shadow fleet vessels in long-range attacks aimed at curbing Moscow’s oil revenues, whilst large smoke plumes and at least four apparent fires were seen at the Yaroslavl refinery. Thereafter, renewed downside was seen on source reports around the Iran-Oman Hormuz framework agreement, although losses are limited until confirmation from Iran. WTI Sep’26 trades in a USD 74.57-76.04/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 74.24-76.70/bbl), while Brent Oct'26 trades in a USD 78.92-80.35/bbl (vs yesterday’s 78.11-80.95/bbl).
• Dutch TTF is similarly choppy but currently up around 3% near EUR 54/MWh.
• Metals are mostly firmer as the energy complex trades choppy in a narrow range, while DXY yesterday fell back under its 100 DMA (99.729) for the second time this week. Furthermore, growing expectations of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have eased energy-driven inflation fears. Spot gold adds to yesterday’s gains and trades around the middle of a USD 4,245-4,304/oz range. 3M LME copper sits towards the top of a USD 14,053.00- 14,359.00/t.
• Saudi Arabia sets September Arab Light crude OSP for Asia at USD 2/bbl discount to Oman/Dubai average; To the US at ASCI +3.60/bbl; To NW Europe at ICE Brent settlement -2.15/bbl.
• China's CMRG has reportedly told some steel mills to stop talks with Rio Tinto (RIO LN) from shipments from September, according to sources.
• DRC reportedly bans exports of Copper and Cobalt concentrate, according to sources citing an official order.

Central Banks

• Fed's Cook (voter) said she supported holding rates steady at the last FOMC meeting while waiting for more data. She said it may yet turn out that the Fed does not need to raise rates but is ready to raise rates if the disinflation trend does not return. Added that there are reasons to believe inflation levels can cool but consumer mood tied to a number of factors including high inflation has soured.
• Fed's Daly (2027 voter) said tariffs, energy and AI shocks caused an uptick in inflation, but noted some evidence that impacts of tariffs are beginning to fade on inflation. If the Middle East war ends, it should help lower inflation. Fed is facing different types of risks when it comes to setting rate policy, while she is completely supportive of holding rates steady in July and noted Fed still needs to gather data to set future policy move.
• Brazil Central Bank cut the Selic Rate by 25bps to 14.00%, as expected, reaffirming serenity and cautiousness in conducting monetary policy.

Geopolitics: Iran

• US President Trump said he'd rather make a deal with Iran and reiterated the US was set for the biggest attack since World War II against Iran, but they called and we're talking, while he added they respect us.
• US VP Vance said negotiations with Iran will take some time and that talks with Iran were 'messy', but will land in a 'good' place for the US.
• Iran and Oman have agreed on the broad framework for Strait of Hormuz reopening talks, Al Arabiya sources report. An announcement could come in days but the agreement still needs the approval of Iran's National Security Council. The proposed agreement regarding Hormuz extends for 60 days and aims to resume navigation. Ships entering the Strait of Hormuz will use the shipping lane closest to Iran while ships departing from Hormuz will use the maritime passage closest to Oman. The proposed agreement regarding Hormuz does not include imposing passage fees or services on ships and after the approval of the Hormuz agreement, the parties will return to the memorandum of understanding and activate.
• Indirect contacts between the US and Iran have entered the final stage, according to Al Arabiya sources.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi's visit to Pakistan is expected by the end of the week or early next week, according to Al Arabiya sources.
• Pakistani Foreign Ministry said Oman played a key role in Strait of Hormuz talks as diplomatic efforts continue toward a comprehensive and sustainable solution, Al Hadath reported, and that efforts to resolve the Hormuz issue continue.
• Yemeni military source said Red Sea operations target Saudi ships and oil tankers and "reduce the options for manoeuvring for the Saudi regime". The source also dismissed Saudi claims over the Indian cargo ship sinking, Al-Akhbar reported.
• UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 9 nautical miles southeast of Kumzar, Oman, with the master of a tanker reporting hearing two explosions whilst transiting the Strait of Hormuz, although crew and vessel are safe.
• Israeli forces strike Burj el-Shamali in southern Lebanon, according to Al Mayadeen.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine struck Bashneft-Novoil (~150k BPD) and Slavneft-Yanos (300k BPD) refineries, two Russian patrol boats and shadow fleet vessels in long-range attacks aimed at curbing Moscow’s oil revenues.
• Air raid alerts issued in Kyiv and multiple regions, according to Ukrainian media.

Geopolitics: Other 

• Japan's MoD said there is no longer any impact on the surrounding areas of Japan, following the North Korean missile launch.

US event calendar

• 8:30 am: Aug 1 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 205k, prior 197k
• 8:30 am: Jul 25 Continuing Claims, est. 1789k, prior 1782k
• 10:00 am: Jun F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After an initially strong run, the week’s equity rally began to run out of steam by the close yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-0.17%) finishing just shy of the previous day’s record high, whilst the Stoxx 600 (+0.04%) just about edged up to another all-time high. That came despite a slew of strong corporate earnings and Iran saying that it has reached agreement with Oman on a proposed route through the Strait of Hormuz. While the timing of any Hormuz re-opening is still uncertain, oil prices are slightly down this morning, while Treasury yields are also dipping slightly after being little changed yesterday amid a batch of mostly solid US data. Meanwhile, a more cautious tech mood has solidified in Asia hours overnight with the KOSPI (-4.18%) and Hang Seng (-1.75%) retreating. NASDAQ futures (-0.13%) are also down this morning even as those on the S&P 500 (+0.16%) are edging higher.

Starting with the Hormuz story, yesterday brought another step forward after Iran said an agreement with Oman had been reached on a proposed shipping route through the Strait and that a joint statement was now in the final drafting stage. However, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister also said that this would represent a “temporary route” for the next 2-4 months and would “not mean the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz”. Iranian state media also reported that reopening Hormuz would be contingent “on a change in US behaviour”, perhaps referring to Tehran’s demands that the US lifts its naval blockade.

Markets have seen plenty of false dawns throughout this conflict, and while the detail is becoming more concrete, attention is now shifting from whether an agreement can be reached to what the final arrangements will look like, including unresolved questions around whether Iran will eventually be permitted to levy tolls on vessels using the Strait. Meanwhile, President Trump sounded somewhat ambivalent on deal prospects last night, saying he will “see what happens” in ongoing negotiations with Iran, after having suggested on Tuesday that a deal could be announced within 48 hours.

Markets nevertheless continue to lean towards a positive outcome, although much of the good news now appears priced in. Brent crude edged up +0.11% to $79.45/bbl, whilst WTI fell by -0.73% to $75.22/bbl. European natural gas futures dropped -6.29%, extending one of their sharpest declines of the year and leaving them down -13.3% over the past week. Brent crude is -0.38% this morning.

With oil moving mostly sideways, the 2yr Treasury yield declined by -1.0bps to 4.18%, whilst the 10yr was unchanged at 4.61%. Those muted moves came as the Treasury Department announced quarterly refunding of $125bn, in line with expectations, whilst maintaining guidance that auction sizes would be unchanged for at least the next several quarters.

The slight decline in front-end yields also came as pricing of a September Fed rate cut eased from 58% to 54%, the lowest this has been since the more hawkish signal sent back at Warsh’s first FOMC meeting on June 12. In terms of the latest Fedspeak, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, who dissented in favour of a hike at the July meeting, said that “now is the time to start slowly” raising rates. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Cook sounded more conditional on the potential need for hikes, saying that “If I do not see signs of continued disinflation soon, I am prepared to act”.

The modest pull back in Fed hike pricing came alongside a mostly resilient set of US economic releases. We did see a bit of softening in the labour market signal, with the ADP report showing employment growth of 44k in July (vs 65k expected) ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls report. Whilst slightly softer, it remains consistent with a labour market that is broadly stable. And the latest ISM services survey showed the employment component fell to 47.4 in July (vs 51.2 expected).  However, while this weighed on the headline ISM services reading (54.1 vs 54.5 expected), the other details of the release were stronger and more inflationary. New orders increased to 57.2 (vs 55.9 expected) and prices paid jumped to 70.3 (vs 65.0 expected).

Taking a broader view, the US very much remained an outperformer in this week’s PMI and ISM releases. Amongst major economies, only Switzerland is currently registering both stronger services activity and stronger services price pressures. It is therefore difficult to argue that pressure on the Fed to tighten policy disappears before September. The comments from ISM respondents reinforced that message. Healthcare firms reported stronger-than-expected patient volumes, revenues and hiring conditions. Banking respondents continued to point to healthy commercial demand. Wholesale trade described activity as “more robust than expected” despite broader headwinds. At the same time, concerns around rising input costs remained widespread, particularly around fuel, labour, freight and utility equipment. Taken together, it remains a story of resilient activity and lingering inflation pressures.

Across the Atlantic, although PMI levels are lower, much of Europe now finds itself broadly back where it was before the Iran shock with the final July composite PMI revised marginally higher (52.0 vs 51.9 expected) despite the pickup in energy prices in late July. This PMI level is consistent with GDP growth of around +0.25% q/q if sustained through the quarter. Overall, the survey data point to a strengthening in underlying growth momentum and suggest the Euro Area economy has remained resilient despite the recent energy shock.

Amid the more mixed data and oil backdrop, equities struggled to maintain the strong momentum that had brought them to new record highs. The S&P 500 eased back by -0.17%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped -0.83% following its recent outperformance. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (-1.40%) also gave back some recent gains, though it is still up +6.17% so far this week. Sentiment was not helped by AMD (-7.04%), whose guidance failed to meet some of the market’s more optimistic expectations, whilst SpaceX (-13.61%) also slid following its results the previous evening.

That said, the broader AI story remains firmly intact. Nvidia (+3.43%) continued to benefit from positive commentary around its next-generation Rubin architecture and after SpaceX said during its earnings call on Tuesday night that it would exclusively use Nvidia AI chips. Elsewhere, Eli Lilly (+4.86%) rose after reporting results ahead of expectations, supported by continued strength in demand for its GLP-1 portfolio.

One of the more interesting AI stories yesterday came from the Wall Street Journal, which reported that Jeff Dean, Google’s chief scientist and one of the most influential engineers in the company’s history, is leaving after 27 years to launch a new AI-focused research company. Dean was Google’s 30th employee, helped build Google Brain, led development of its TPU chips and has sat at the centre of the company’s AI strategy for much of the last decade. He is being joined by several other prominent Google researchers, including key contributors to AlphaFold and advanced mathematical reasoning systems.

Alphabet will remain an investor and provide computing capacity to the venture, but the move nevertheless highlights how intense competition for elite AI talent has become. It also points to what could be the next frontier for AI. Rather than building better chatbots or consumer applications, the new company aims to automate the scientific discovery process itself across machine learning research, hardware design, drug discovery and clean energy. For markets, it is another reminder that the AI investment cycle is evolving rapidly beyond software and increasingly into scientific research, engineering and real-world innovation. Alphabet shares fell -4.03% following the news.

Otherwise, Asian equity markets struggled overnight amidst a more cautious tech mood, not helped by underwhelming guidance from US chipmakers Sandisk and Western Digital Corp after the US close, with their shares sliding by around -8% and -12% respectively in extended trading. The Kospi (-4.18%) is leading the decline, dragged by chipmaker heavyweights SK Hynix (-6.68%) and Samsung Electronics (-4.55%). The Nikkei 225 (-1.06%), Hang Seng (-1.75%) and CSI 300 (-0.42%) are also down this morning. The S&P/ASX 200 (+0.37%) remains the outperformer, breaking another record high as I type. In currency markets, the yen (-0.03%) is also little changed at 157.71 against the USD this morning.

In Europe, the performance was mixed yesterday. The Stoxx 600 (+0.04%) and CAC 40 (+0.03%) both edged to fresh all-time highs, whilst the DAX (-0.29%) and FTSE MIB (-0.18%) slipped modestly lower.

European sovereign markets saw yields mostly drift higher. The 10yr bund yield edged up +0.4bps, while 10yr OATs (+1.7bp) and BTPs (+1.8bp) saw slightly larger increases. ECB rate hike expectations for September rose to 84% from 79% the previous day amid the resilient data.

Finally, with Fed rate cuts being dialled back, gold rose +4.19%, its largest daily gain since February. Gold prices are another +0.26% higher at $4,258/oz overnight, though they remain about -20% below the levels reached at the start of the Iran war in early March. The dollar (-0.18%) extended its decline for a third straight day.

To the day ahead now, economic data releases include US Q2 nonfarm productivity, unit labour costs, June wholesale trade sales, initial jobless claims, UK July construction PMI, Germany June factory orders, France Q2 wages, Italy June industrial production, Eurozone June retail sales, Canada July Services PMI and Sweden July CPI. We will also receive the ECB’s latest Economic Bulletin.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 08:10

Researcher Finds Backdoor In Chinese-Made Routers Sold Worldwide

Authored by Evgenia Filimianova via The Epoch Times,

Cybersecurity company VulnCheck said on Aug. 5 that it has found that more than 20 models of a Chinese-made wireless router sold worldwide contain a hidden backdoor that could allow unauthorized access to devices connected to the network.

File photograph of ethernet cables running from the back of a router in Washington on March 21, 2019. Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

The finding adds to growing Western concerns about cybersecurity risks posed by Chinese-made networking equipment. Western governments have warned for years about hackers exploiting such devices, and U.S. regulators moved this year to restrict imports of foreign-made routers.

Jacob Baines, chief technology officer at VulnCheck, who found the backdoor, said in a blog post that the vulnerability, dubbed "Endlessdoors," affects routers manufactured by Shenzhen Zhibotong Electronics Co. and sold under the Zbtlink and Wiflyer brand names.

Routers serve as the gateway between internet-connected devices and the wider internet, directing traffic to computers, smartphones, smart televisions, cameras, and other connected equipment. Because routers manage internet traffic between connected devices and the wider internet, vulnerabilities affecting them can expose entire home or business networks.

Baines estimates that at least 100,000 such routers are deployed worldwide. The backdoor Baines discovered automatically "dials the same tiny set of endpoints," Baines said in a blog post on the company's website. Whoever controls those domains could take control of the router and potentially use it to access other devices on the same network, he said.

Baines said most people who order this router and use it for their small business or home office would likely have no clue that it could allow this sort of access.

"If I have it in my lab, in my lab at my university, you just invited them straight into your lab and they can roam the network as they choose," Baines said. "The capabilities are devastating."

Western governments have warned about Chinese-linked hackers abusing small office and home office routers and other internet devices to gain access to networks for later intrusions as well as cyberespionage.

Beijing regularly denies condoning or carrying out cyberattacks or cyberespionage.

The Epoch Times reached out to Shenzhen Zhibotong Electronics/Zbtlink for comment but didn't receive a response by publication time.

US Scrutiny

The findings come as U.S. officials continue to increase scrutiny of networking equipment manufactured by companies with links to China.

In March, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) announced restrictions on imports of certain foreign-made consumer routers over national security concerns.

The FCC said in a March 23 statement that foreign-made routers had been exploited by malicious actors to target U.S. households, disrupt networks, conduct espionage, and steal intellectual property.

"Foreign-made routers were also involved in the Volt, Flax, and Salt Typhoon cyberattacks targeting vital U.S. infrastructure," it added.

In February, Texas filed a lawsuit against TP-Link Systems, alleging the networking company exposed American consumers' devices to Chinese regime access.

In response to the lawsuit, TP-Link Systems, which was spun off from a Chinese company, said it would "vigorously defend" its reputation, called the allegations "without merit," and added that the Chinese communist regime has no form of ownership or control over the company, its products, or user data.

Risk for Networks

VulnCheck on Wednesday published a list of 20 affected models and urged organizations to determine whether any remain deployed in their networks.

VulnCheck said users should identify affected devices by their model numbers rather than the brand name because Zbtlink manufactures routers for other companies under original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and original design manufacturer (ODM) agreements.

The company recommended replacing affected devices where possible, restricting remote management access, and installing firmware updates if security fixes become available.

In this photo illustration, a hacker types on a computer keyboard on May 13, 2025. Oleksii Pydsosonnii/The Epoch Times Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 07:20

My morning pre-fishing reads:

• Your phone is the most intricate machine you’ve ever held. Let’s take it apart.Fingerprint Resistant Coating, Chemically hardened glass armour, An invisible grid that senses your fingers, and Millions of lights forming everything you see… (Everything Machine)

• The Investing Heavyweights That Backed Situational Awareness Before It Blew Up: The Wall Street Journal’s exclusive on Aschenbrenner’s imploding fund — the marquee names who piled in at the top, and the redemption queue forming now. Hedge fund behind aggressive AI bets tapped into roster of big-name investors; some warned the founder about the risks of heavy borrowing (Wall Street Journal) see also Situational awareness – do we have it? The companion research note on markets’ collective blind spots. Leverage in ETFs, margin accounts and hedge fund books that was encouraged by more than a decade of low and stable rates. Indeed, reports that over 3% of Korea’s adult population received a margin call over the last two weeks is deeply concerning if true.  (Deutsche Bank Research Institute)

• The Anatomy of a Blow-Up: Ted Seides dissects how funds die — the leverage, the crowding, the redemption spirals, and the pattern that repeats from LTCM to the present. (Capital Allocators with Ted Seides)

• US diesel prices overtake Biden-era average in blow to Trump: The Financial Times on the inconvenient fuel data — diesel is now more expensive than the average under the administration Trump ran against on energy prices. (Financial Times)

• Uber’s Strategy for Fighting Sexual Assault Suits: ‘What Were You Wearing?’ Emily Steel on a company that promised to handle claims “in a way that is best for the survivor” while its lawyers pursued a far more aggressive strategy. The ride-hailing giant promised to handle legal claims “in a way that is best for the survivor.” Its lawyers are pursuing a far more aggressive strategy. (New York Times)

• The Great Romance Slump: Faith Hill at a candlelit Manhattan loft for a “mindful singles event” designed as the antidote to dating apps. Ninety seconds into a three-minute hug with a stranger, she began to think dying alone might not be so bad. Why are so few young people finding love? (The Atlantic)

• How Does the Qatar-Donated Air Force One Compare With Other Presidential Jets?: The donated aircraft lacks midair refueling and nuclear hardening, and goes in for more modifications this fall. Boeing’s two next-gen planes are due in 2028, more than $3 billion in losses later. From laser weapons to color schemes, transporting the president around the world is a study in details (Wall Street Journal)

• GOP Staffers Say the Party Has a Groyper Problem: In group chats and at happy hours, party veterans fret that the pipeline of young Republican talent is veering into terminally online extremism. Party veterans are concerned that the pipeline of young Republican talent is veering off course — and into terminally online extremism. (Politico) see also Let’s Be Clear: Todd Blanche Is an Unqualified Hack Who Shouldn’t Be U.S. Attorney General: Esquire’s Charles Pierce holds nothing back on the AG nomination — the résumé, the conflicts, and the Senate Republicans pretending not to notice. If Congressional Republicans had any spine at all, they wouldn’t let something like this happen (Esquire)

• Why ‘super movers’ have healthier brains — and how to be one: Defined as people who are able to walk significantly faster than most of their aging peers, they are about half as likely to experience cognitive decline, a study found. The Washington Post on the research linking movement variety to cognitive health — it’s not just exercise volume, it’s the range of ways you move. (Washington Post)

• On ‘Ted Lasso,’ She’s Ruthless. Off Camera, She’s ‘Quite a Goofy Nugget.’: The New York Times profiles Hannah Waddingham ahead of the show’s fourth season — the West End years, the late-breaking stardom, and the Rebecca Welton evolution. Waddingham is a rare British actor to beat a path from musical theater to the screen. (New York Times)

Video of the day: I Asked Michelin Chefs How They Cook Steak

Be sure to check out a special bonus episode of Masters in Business interview with Mike Kelly, chief investment officer of Future Standard, a $90 billion multi-strategy platform for wealth management clients. Previously, he was at Omega Advisors and Tiger Management.

 

YouTube is now bigger than Netflix and Disney’s streaming services combined in terms of TV viewership in the US

Source: Nielsen via Bloomberg Screentime

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Iraq-Syria Pipeline to Bypass Hormuz Could Be Revived Within 3 Years

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice

An old Iraq-to-Syria oil pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz could be up and running within three years, a senior Syrian official has said.

The Hormuz crisis that cut off most of Iraq’s crude oil exports has accelerated plans by Iraq and Syria to rebuild a damaged oil pipeline to ship crude oil from the Iraqi fields in Kirkuk to Syria’s Mediterranean coast.

The completion of the renovation of the pipeline from Haditha in Iraq to the Syrian port of Baniyas would take “three years at most,” said Youssef Qablawi, CEO of the state-owned Syrian Petroleum Company.

Syria and Iraq have started negotiations to finalize the contract, and are also in discussions with companies that will invest in this pipeline, the executive said, as carried by Iraqi news outlet The New Region.

“Engineering studies and the purchase of materials will then begin, followed by construction. Implementation will take between 30 months and three years at most, after which the pipeline will be ready,” Qablawi told reporters.

The project is expected to consist of two pipelines with a capacity of between 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and 2 million bpd, according to the executive.

Last month, the United States voiced its support for the plan. The U.S. backs the Iraqi and Syrian efforts to rebuild the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline and diminish Iran’s potential to disrupt Hormuz traffic in the future, an official at the U.S. State Department told Reuters.

The United States also expects U.S. companies to play a role in the reconstruction of the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil route, according to reports. The pipeline would be crucial for Iraq’s oil exports not depending on Hormuz, Syria’s post-war economy, and reduced Iranian leverage in the Strait.

Iraq desperately needs export routes not depending on the Strait of Hormuz, whose closure exposed this key Iraqi vulnerability, forced OPEC’s second-largest producer to slash upstream production, and led to billions of U.S. dollars of lost revenues for Baghdad.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 05:00

Why On Earth Are They Doing This?

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

The Spanish Red Cross is treating the military-age men who swam around the border fence and stormed Ceuta like victims of an earthquake.

Volunteers in red vests are lining up on the sand at Playa del Trampolín, handing out bread, milk, biscuits, water, cans of tuna and pastries to the thousands who remain after last week's deliberate mass invasion from Morocco. Police stand by to keep the queues orderly while the same people who refused to go home sit and eat.

This is not a natural disaster. These men crossed into Spanish territory because the opportunity was created for them. There is nothing stopping Spanish authorities from sending them straight back. Instead the humanitarian apparatus has arrived with supplies.

The Red Cross is now handing out food and supplies to illegals in Ceuta as if they're victims of a natural disaster. They literally swam the coastline and invaded Spain because they felt like it and there is nothing preventing them from being sent home. pic.twitter.com/eAruK5wyiy

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) August 4, 2026

Cadena SER and local outlets confirmed the first organised distribution of food since the crisis began. Cruz Roja and the local branch of Cooperación Sur-Sur handed out the packages to around 2,000 migrants, the majority from sub-Saharan Africa.

???? Red Cross in Ceuta handing out food and water to the migrants who just stormed Spanish territory.

Locals are furious and it's hard to blame them.

Carrots don't keep people away, sticks do...

Writer: Samuelpic.twitter.com/hanliozVRk

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) August 4, 2026

National Police managed the lines so the recipients stayed seated until their turn, then returned to the beach to eat. One Nigerian man named Genesis told reporters he was "happy to finally have something to eat and drink." He said he had been trying to cross for months and now hopes for asylum.

African Migrants in Ceuta Complain About Treatment: 'No Food, No Blankets' pic.twitter.com/RmWGWe2oVA

— New York Post (@nypost) August 3, 2026

A Sudanese man named Malik Alher said he had gone five days without food, then added that he wants to "learn Spanish, live in Madrid and work in a supermarket."

The volunteers doing the handing-out look exactly like the usual crowd: white European leftist women. Locals watching the scene are furious, and for good reason. Feeding the people who just overran your city does not encourage them to leave.

This comes after Spanish officials spent days insisting the problem had solved itself. Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares claimed the "practical totality" of those who entered had returned to Morocco.

The Spanish Embassy in London repeated the line. Reality on the ground never matched the press releases. Streets remained full, facilities were stormed, and thousands simply stayed put on the beaches and around the CETI reception centre.

Local estimates of those left behind ranged from 2,000 to 15,000. But it's anyone's guess. Many of the remaining group are now openly declaring they will not go back. They are waiting for the next step toward the Spanish mainland and the wider European welfare systems.

?? A Spanish soldier in Ceuta said they are now ordered only to direct illegal migrants toward the border so they leave the country on their own.

"Right now we are not allowed to do anything else," the soldier has said.

For him, it is a personal sorrow what Sánchez's... https://t.co/nwDPZjRFyB pic.twitter.com/U19WqDSij5

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 4, 2026

Muslim Invaders Chanting "Allahu Akbar" Have OVERTAKEN The Streets of Ceuta.

Police are completely overwhelmed.

The government wants you to think this isn't happening.

We are witnessing the total collapse of a nation. https://t.co/9VhvDWSP3A

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) August 3, 2026

The situation in Ceuta:

Thousands of invaders still remain. They've taken to forested areas around the city to avoid being captured.

Their goal now is to get on boats to the Spanish mainland. Social media is also full of calls by illegals to stage another mass invasion on the... pic.twitter.com/Q8JBQPwN36

— ???? ???? ?? ?? (@NiohBerg) August 4, 2026

Auf der marokkanischen Seite an der Grenze zu Ceuta warten Schwarzafrikaner auf ihre Weiterreise in die EU. Sie werden von den Behörden zurückgehalten, damit zuerst die Marokkaner nach Spanien eindringen können.

Sie nennen es "Zwischenhaltungs-Internatzentrum".

Das Video ist... pic.twitter.com/U8idHK1VAo

— ???? (@queru_lant) August 1, 2026

Some, have already been sent to mainland Spain.

?? Dozens of migrants were allegedly transferred from Ceuta to Andalusia, mainland Spain today.

Follow: @europa pic.twitter.com/BU0F9vJm21

— Europa.com (@europa) August 4, 2026

Vox leader Santiago Abascal has called the episode an "invasion and an act of war promoted by Morocco and allowed by Sánchez." He demanded the prime minister face legal proceedings.

Muslim Invaders in Ceuta are now BURNING the Countryside as they Continue TAKE OVER the Streets.

This is total chaos and collapse of a country.

It looks like a literal zombie apocalypse. pic.twitter.com/6GqklXUK4n

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) August 3, 2026

The People's Party has accused Sánchez of being on holiday while sovereignty was tested. Ceuta's own president Juan Jesús Vivas described the situation as "absolutely unsustainable" for a city of just 83,000.

Handing out free meals does not change the fundamental facts. These men were not shipwrecked, they did not come from a war zone. They walked and swam into Spanish territory in a coordinated surge that Morocco facilitated and Spain failed to stop.

Every ration distributed on that beach signals that the cost of illegal entry will be met with care packages rather than immediate removal. Carrots do not deter the next wave. Only the credible threat of being sent straight home does.

Spain's government can still choose enforcement over theatre. Until it does, the Red Cross will keep unpacking boxes for the people who invaded, and the residents of Ceuta will keep watching their city turned into a holding pen for those who refuse to leave.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 02:00

The West Is Winning The Information War While Russia Prevails On The Battlefield

Authored by former CIA officer Larry Johnson

I stumbled across something pretty bizarre today when I queried one of the AI-search engines about Russia’s capture of territory in Ukraine in 2026. Here is what the Chinese KIMI claimed:

The evidence from multiple sources — including Ukrainian official claims, Western think tanks, and Ukrainian independent trackers — suggests that Ukraine recaptured substantially more territory than Russia captured during the first half of 2026, driven by the southern counteroffensive. However, the pace of Ukrainian gains has slowed since spring, and Russia has made small net gains in recent months (June–July). The overall net for the full year so far appears to still favor Ukraine, but the margin and the exact numbers depend heavily on whose methodology you use.

There you have it… Ukraine is winning the war on the ground according to AI. Let me emphasize that you will find this same propaganda on GROK or Claude. The Western propaganda effort is paying dividends on the information operation side of the house. Even the Chinese-coders who created KIMI are pushing Western propaganda.

via Al Jazeera

So let me give you the actual rundown for 2026. Russia started 2026 with Gerasimov’s report to Putin announcing the liberation of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) — the Donetsk logistics hub under siege for nearly two years — and of Vovchansk in Kharkiv. Through November of 2025 the MoD had reported a steady run of captures, including Petrovskoye in the DPR and Tikhoye and Otradnoye in Dnepropetrovsk.

Moving into the spring of 2026, TASS reported that Russian forces liberated 63 settlements from March through May 2026 — 20 in March, 16 in April, and 27 in May, the strongest month. The regional breakdown was 21 in Kharkiv Region, 19 in the DPR, 14 in Sumy, six in Zaporozhye, and three in Dnepropetrovsk. The Sumy and Kharkiv gains are framed by Moscow as building a “security zone” along the Russian border.

By early summer (June), Gerasimov reported that Russian forces were continuing the liberation of “Donbass and Novorossiya,” advancing on all fronts. The 3rd Army was advancing toward Slavyansk and Kramatorsk — liberating Piskunovka, reaching the outskirts of Nikolayevka, and reported to be less than 5 km from the eastern edge of Kramatorsk, with the capture of Krasny Liman (Lyman) said to be due soon.

Battlegroup West advanced on a broad front; in the Kupyansk area, having repelled Ukrainian attempts to break through to western Kupyansk, with assault units pushing west toward Shevchenkovo. In the Dobropolye area north of Krasnoarmeysk, fighting in Dobropolye and Annovka, with Lenina (Ukrainian name Mirnoye) taken and Shevchenko, Krasnoyarskoye, and Svetloye reported as liberated.

In July TASS counted 32 settlements liberated, with 22 of them — over 68 percent — in Kharkiv Region and the DPR. By battlegroup: North took ten, Center eight, West six, East five, and South three, and the month’s most significant developments were the liberation of Konstantinovka in the DPR by Battlegroup East and the capture of Belitskoye by Battlegroup Center. Konstantinovka is one of the four Donetsk fortress belt cities.

At present the Russians are driving on the last major Ukrainian-held Donetsk agglomeration — the Konstantinovka–Druzhkovka–Kramatorsk–Slavyansk belt — alongside the Sumy/Kharkiv border zone and consolidation in Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk.

Along with the ground operations in eastern Ukraine, Russia has ended Ukraine's ability to conduct maritime and trade operations from Odessa and Nikolaev since July 22nd.

Zelensky’s decision to strike Russian shipping in the Azov Sea made for some good pr for a few days during the big “Ukraine Turning The Tide” campaign, and triggered the expected Russian response, which is magnitudes more damaging to Ukraine. Stupid beyond belief. https://t.co/SIUDo2LtP5

— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) August 5, 2026

Ukrainian farmers will not be able to export products via the Black Sea ports and western supplies, which once flowed freely through Odessa. Ukraine’s maritime lifeline is severed and will not be in operation until after the war with Ukraine is over.

Finally, there is the daily Russian missile and drone attacks on Kiev and other key Ukrainian logistics and military hubs. The destruction of factories and warehouses is effectively bleeding Ukraine dry. The West persists in painting the war in Ukraine as a crusade that sits on the threshold of victory, but the realities on the ground tell a dramatically different, grim story… Ukraine is losing.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 23:25

End Of Cheap Food? Five Forces Set To Drive Grocery Bills Even Higher

UBS analysts identified five long-term forces likely to keep global food inflation "structurally higher" above its pre-pandemic average of about 2.5%, crushing consumer hopes that price pressures will simply fade.

"While food inflation globally has fallen from the COVID peak, a new debate is emerging: is the c2.5% LT average obsolete?" London-based managing director and equity-research analyst Sreedhar Mahamkali asked in a note penned on Monday.

Mahamkali and his team outlined five long-term drivers of global food inflation:

1. Climate risk is global, although its intensity differs by geography and commodity. Academic research suggests climate change could add around 0.9 to 3.2 percentage points to annual global food inflation by 2035.

2. Weak farm profitability limits investment and supply responsiveness globally. The pressure is most visible where farms are small, fragmented or exposed to volatile inputs, although scale, subsidies and access to credit can provide greater protection in some markets.

3. Higher welfare standards are lifting costs in animal protein. UK and European poultry provide the clearest current evidence, but similar changes in stocking density, housing, biosecurity and traceability are emerging across several markets.

4. Labor costs are rising across the food chain. The effect is strongest in labour- intensive farming, processing, logistics, food service as well as the front-end retail, although productivity, automation and the availability of lower-cost labour produce meaningful regional differences.

5. Supply flexibility is constrained globally: some markets face limited land expansion and tighter standards, while others contend with underinvestment and climate vulnerability.

"We expect food-at- home to start regaining share from historical lows, suggesting higher spend in the Food Retail channel with potential tailwinds as we demonstrate with a UK case study. On the other hand, wallet share compression of the discretionary categories means food-away- from-home and non-food retail are more vulnerable," the analyst pointed out.

He expects food inflation to run above historical levels in the UK, Europe, Australia, Southeast Asia and China, while remaining broadly unchanged in the US and Latin America and declining in India:

The UK faces all five drivers, but a rational competitive landscape enables better pass- through, leaving it as the best-positioned retail market.

Europe too faces many of the pressures, but greater fragmentation dilutes pricing power. In the fragmented US, structural cost pressure is largely offset by competition, likely leaving inflation in line with history.

In Latam, Brazil is relatively insulated with moderate impacts from labour cost inflation, welfare standards and a better supply outlook aided by technology with the outlook the same as history.

By contrast, ASEAN sees a sticky underlying cost base and a potential El Niño in H2 suggesting sustained pressure. China is likely to see a gradual increase in food inflation as external cost pressures are effectively transmitted.

Higher operating costs persist in Australia with regulation/welfare standards leading to higher inflation with some costs likely absorbed by retailers. India is the exception, benefiting from policy intervention and productivity gains with lower inflation than in the past.

Visualizing: Food prices could keep rising faster than they did before Covid, remaining above the historical average of about 2.5% annual inflation. Several long-term pressures are making food permanently more expensive.

For the food inflation narrative to continue, the analysts outlined what they are tracking over the next six months:

Here are the winners and losers under different food inflation scenarios:

Five out of eight regions are likely to see higher inflation:

The era of cheap food may be ending. Food inflation could further ignite as other Wall Street desks warn about El Niño risk developing and Professional subscribers can read those notes here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 23:00

US Lifts Sanctions On Iraqi Airline Blacklisted Over IRGC Ties

Via The Cradle

The US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) lifted sanctions on Iraq's Fly Baghdad Airlines and two of its aircraft on Wednesday, clearing a carrier Washington had blacklisted in January 2024 over alleged support for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force. 

The Baghdad-based carrier was delisted from the Specially Designated Nationals (SDNs) list under each of its three registered names, Fly Baghdad Airlines Company, Fly Baghdad, and Iraq Express.

@JetPhotos

Two Boeing 737 aircraft flown by the airline, carrying the tail numbers YI-BAF and YI-BAN, were removed from the list at the same time.

A US Treasury official, who spoke anonymously, told AFP that the airline had cleared the department's administrative reconsideration process.

"FBA (Fly Baghdad Airlines) has demonstrated major changes to their operations such that their listing is no longer warranted," the official said.

The same official said the delisting is "not indicative of any shift in US policy toward the Government of Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force, any designated terrorist organization, or any person who supports or acts on behalf of any of these."

Not every restriction tied to the airline has been dropped. Basheer Abdulkadhim Alwan al-Shabbani, the Iraqi national identified as the company's owner when the sanctions were first imposed, remains blacklisted.

His entry was rewritten so that the designation now cites the IRGC Quds Force directly instead of Fly Baghdad.

Washington first designated the airline, its aircraft, and its owner in January 2024, alleging the company supported Iran’s Quds Force and allied groups in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.

The delisting comes amid a broader US sanctions campaign that continues to target Iran’s IRGC-linked logistics and aviation networks. 

There is some reporting that Treasury removed Iran-related sanctions from its website. A Treasury official tells me, “This is not indicative of any shift in U.S. policy toward the Government of Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—Qods Force, any designated terrorist…

— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) August 5, 2026

Just last week, Washington sanctioned entities tied to Mahan Air, which it alleges helps move weapons, personnel and equipment for the IRGC Quds Force. 

The action also hit support firms in China, India and Russia that Treasury says served as the airline’s sales agents and logistics intermediaries.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 22:35

China Is Betting AI, Hypersonic Missiles And Quantum Technology Will Define The Next Era Of Warfare

As China races to modernize its armed forces, its strategy is increasingly centered on developing technologies that could offset America's traditional military advantages instead of matching the U.S. system for system, according to the South China Morning Post.

That philosophy dates back to Unrestricted Warfare, a book published in 1999 by former PLA strategist Qiao Liang. Rather than copying America's arsenal, Qiao argued China should focus on capabilities Washington lacks. Nearly three decades later, he says the concept still applies. Modern militaries, he said, are now "building weapons for the wars they expect to fight, rather than fighting wars with the weapons they possess."

With the People's Liberation Army approaching its 100th anniversary next year, Beijing is expected to unveil another round of modernization goals as it works toward Xi Jinping's objective of creating a "world class military" by 2049. Analysts say the focus has shifted beyond simply catching the United States. China wants to help define the next era of warfare through artificial intelligence, quantum technology, hypersonic missiles, laser weapons and autonomous systems.

That ambition is perhaps most visible in aviation. The public appearance of China's tailless sixth generation fighter prototypes has fueled speculation that Beijing could be setting the pace in next generation air combat. Military analyst Fu Qianshao called the development "a landmark event," arguing that China is no longer just following trends established by the United States and Russia.

SCMP writes that future battlefields, analysts say, will revolve around connected, intelligent systems rather than individual weapons. Piloted aircraft may direct fleets of drones, armored vehicles could become mobile command and sensing platforms, and combat operations will increasingly link forces across land, sea, air, space and cyberspace with artificial intelligence playing a growing role in decision making.

China is investing heavily across that spectrum. The PLA has accelerated work on advanced aircraft carrier technology, AI powered drone swarms, underwater autonomous vehicles, electronic warfare and high performance computing. Much of that development is supported through Beijing's military civilian fusion strategy, which combines military research with universities and private technology companies.

Among the most closely watched programs are hypersonic weapons, quantum communications and artificial intelligence. China is widely regarded as a leader in hypersonic missile development and has spent years building quantum communication networks that could strengthen secure military communications. AI is already being tested for intelligence analysis, battlefield planning and autonomous drone operations.

Chinese planners have also closely studied the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, where drones have transformed modern combat. That has accelerated work on laser and microwave based air defense systems designed to defeat large drone swarms before they can reach their targets.

Even so, analysts caution that emerging technologies are unlikely to replace traditional military power on their own. Instead, they are expected to strengthen existing forces by making conventional ships, aircraft, missiles and ground units faster, more connected and more effective while introducing new opportunities and new risks.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 22:10

Former Haitian Police Officer And Naturalized US Citizen Pleads Guilty To Gun Running

Authored by Michael Clements via The Epoch Times,

A naturalized U.S. citizen and former Haitian National Police officer pleaded guilty to smuggling at least 140 firearms to Haiti.

Soldiers patrol amid the sound of gunshots heard in the distance in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, on Oct. 17, 2024. Odelyn Joseph/AP Photo

Jean Robert Casimir, 53, of Lauderhill, Florida, pleaded guilty in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia to conspiracy, smuggling, and violation of the Export Control Reform Act on Tuesday, Aug. 4.

According to court records, Casimir admitted to engaging in an extensive firearms trafficking operation since 2020.

He was arrested on Dec. 16, 2024, in Lauderhill and indicted on Jan. 23, 2025. His sentencing is set for Dec. 4.

Casimir told the court that from August 2020 through December 2024, he illegally exported guns from the United States to Haiti without the required license from the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security.

He told the court he purchased the guns for his security business, which hires off-duty Haitian National Police officers to provide armed security for people visiting the island.

According to an arrest warrant affidavit, Homeland Security investigators saw photographs of firearms used by Haitian gangs in which serial numbers were clearly visible. The affidavit stated that the guns were traced back to legal purchases Casimir made at a Florida gun store in 2020.

Casimir denied selling guns to gang members. He said the guns were stolen from one of his employees during a robbery.

To smuggle the firearms, Casimir and his co-conspirators disassembled the guns, encased them in a foam insulating material and sealed them in industrial air compressors they had cut open and welded back together. They shipped the air compressors to Haiti from Miami.

The investigation was a combined effort by the FBI Miami Field Office, Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) Washington, D.C., and HSI Miami with assistance from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives and U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

The case is being prosecuted by U.S. Attorneys from the District of Columbia and the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) National Security Division, with assistance from the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of Florida.

According to a DOJ press release, the case is part of a Homeland Security Task Force (HSTF) initiative to eliminate criminal cartels, foreign gangs, transnational criminal organizations, and human smuggling and trafficking rings operating in the United States and abroad.

"Through historic interagency collaboration, the HSTF directs the full might of U.S. law enforcement towards identifying, investigating, and prosecuting the full spectrum of crimes committed by these organizations," the press release states.

According to data released by the United Nations Human Rights Office, there are an estimated 270,000 to 500,000 illegal weapons in circulation in Haiti, even though country does not manufacture guns or ammunition.

Haiti has been overrun by armed gangs and vigilante groups for more than a decade.

Political corruption and natural disasters have destabilized the country. As the government struggled to deal with the crises, powerful gangs took control of various areas, including the capital, Port au Prince.

Armed off-duty police officers take cover during an exchange of gunfire with army soldiers as they protest over police pay and working conditions in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, on Feb. 23, 2020. Dieu Nalio Chery/Ap Photo Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 21:45

Declassified Documents Show FBI Probed Whether Trump Fired Comey At Russia's Direction

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Newly declassified documents show the FBI probed President Donald Trump's termination of the agency's director as part of an effort to substantiate allegations that Trump colluded with Russia.

Former FBI Director James Comey in Berlin, Germany, on June 19, 2018. Carsten Koall/Getty Images

The documents, declassified by a White House task force on Aug. 5, refer to Trump's firing of FBI Director James Comey on May 9, 2017.

In one of the documents, dated May 16, 2017, the FBI said it was opening an investigation "based on an articulable factual basis that reasonably indicates that President Donald J. Trump may be or has been, wittingly or unwittingly, involved in activities for or on behalf of the Government of the Russian Federation which may constitute violations of federal criminal law or threats to the national security of the United States."

The goal of the investigation "is to determine if President Trump is or was directed by, controlled by, and/or coordinated activities with, the Russian Federation in a manner constituting a threat to the national security of the United States and/or a violation of federal criminal statutes," the document states.

The investigation, codenamed Oxferd Comma, would also look into whether Trump and "others yet to be named" obstructed or conspired to obstruct any related FBI investigations, according to the document.

That included whether Trump's firing of Comey was linked to the FBI probing Russian efforts to influence the 2016 election, the document said.

Comey was fired after officials determined he mishandled a probe into then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's use of a personal server to send classified emails, including announcing without clearance from the attorney general that the case should be closed without prosecution, according to a memorandum from then-Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to the attorney general that was later made public.

Trump said shortly after Comey's termination that he fired Comey due to his mishandling the probe of Clinton, who ran against Trump in the 2016 election.

The document opening the probe said that Trump's rationale for firing Comey "has changed over time."

While Trump initially in public attributed the decision to conclusions from Rosenstein and then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions, and the White House said in a statement that the firing had "nothing to do with Russia," Trump said in a television interview several days later that he was going to fire Comey regardless of the recommendation from Department of Justice officials because "this Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made up story."

James Baker, the FBI's general counsel at the time, and William Priestap, the FBI's assistant director for counterintelligence at the time, signed off on the probe, and other top FBI officials, such as acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe, were aware of the investigation, according to the document and other papers.

The White House Government Transparency Task Force declassified and released the documents.

Trump created the task force in May to advise him on documents "that should be declassified and/or released to the public to further his administration's priorities of transparency and accountability," according to a July 13 statement from the task force.

John Solomon, chairman of the task force, said in a statement released by the White House that evidence when the investigation was opened already undercut suspicions that Trump was acting as a Russian asset, including testimony from FBI special agent William Barnett.

The White House declined to comment.

The FBI did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.

The probe into Trump's termination of Comey was closed on April 9, 2019, after special counsel Robert Mueller concluded that there was no evidence to support claims that Trump and his campaign colluded or coordinated with Russia.

"The Special Counsel provided the Attorney General with a confidential report explaining his prosecution and declination decisions," the document outlining the closing of the investigation reads.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 20:55