Individual Economists

Conference Board Survey Signals Ugly Job Market, Weakest 'Present Situation' In Over 5 Years

Zero Hedge -

Conference Board Survey Signals Ugly Job Market, Weakest 'Present Situation' In Over 5 Years

The Conference Board's measure of Americans' Consumer Confidence fell more than expected in July, from an upwardly revised 92.2 to 90.8 (well below the 92.4 expectation)...

The Present Situation index fell to 114.9 (below 117.5 exp) -  its weakest since Feb 2021 while Expectations were unchanged at 74.7 (very slightly better than the 74.4 exp).

“Consumer confidence moderated slightly in July, continuing a general downward sloping trajectory since late 2021,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

“The Present Situation Index was less positive for a third consecutive month while the Expectations Index remained in negative territory. Consumer appraisals of current business conditions and, to a lesser extent, perceptions of the current labor market both softened.

Looking ahead, consumers anticipate little improvement in business conditions over the next six months, but expectations for the labor market were slightly less negative. Expectations for household incomes moderated but remained optimistic overall.”

On a six-month moving average basis, by age, confidence for consumers under 35 remained the highest, while confidence among those aged 35-54 showed the greatest improvement.

By income, confidence was mixed, but generally higher-income groups were more optimistic.

By generation, confidence for Gen Z and Millennials remained the highest, while confidence fell the most for the Silent Generation on a six-month moving average basis.

By political affiliation, confidence among Independents and Democrats softened while Republicans were somewhat more positive.

And while jobless claims dropped to their lowest level since 1969 last week, perceptions of current employment conditions declined, with the labor market differential - the share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” minus the share saying jobs are “hard to get” - dipping by 0.7 ppts to +3.1%. This downshift was driven by fewer consumers reporting that jobs are “plentiful”, while the those saying jobs are “hard to get” dipped slightly over the month.

Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations were less elevated in July. Most consumers—61.3%, unchanged from June—still expected higher interest rates over the next 12 months. Notwithstanding recent volatility in the equity markets, consumers still expected higher stock prices a year from now. 

Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to be mostly pessimistic in July.

References to prices and oil and gas eased in frequency but remain elevated. Comments about food and grocery prices increased.

Mentions of war, geopolitics, and conflict eased during the sample period. However, as the fighting has reaccelerated quite recently there could be an increase in these mentions in the revised data for July.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 10:10

J&J's Proposed $5.5 Billion Talc Settlement May "Lift Remaining Overhang" On Shares, Says Guggenheim

Zero Hedge -

J&J's Proposed $5.5 Billion Talc Settlement May "Lift Remaining Overhang" On Shares, Says Guggenheim

Johnson & Johnson announced late Monday that it had reached an agreement to commit $5.5 billion to resolve most lawsuits alleging its talc products caused ovarian cancer. The settlement could end 15 years of litigation and "lift the remaining overhang" on J&J shares, according to one institutional trading desk.

The "comprehensive resolution," as described by J&J, requires participation from law firms representing at least 95% of pending state and federal claims. The company faces roughly 76,000 lawsuits, though some Wall Street analysts expect that number could soon top 90,000.

J&J maintains that its talc products are safe and never contained asbestos. It stopped selling talc-based baby powder in the US in 2020 and globally in 2023 after repeated attempts to resolve the claims through bankruptcy court failed.

"Studies show talc is safe, does not contain asbestos, and does not cause cancer," J&J wrote in the press release.

"After decades of litigation and full vetting of the science in an extensive hearing, plaintiffs effectively conceded their inability to prove specific causation by withdrawing their experts on the topic in two bellwether cases," said Erik Haas, Worldwide Vice President of Litigation, Johnson & Johnson.

Haas continued, "In a watershed moment, the Court thereafter ordered plaintiffs to show why the remaining claims should not be dismissed, confirming what we have maintained for years: that these claims lack scientific merit and were sustained only by unreliable expert opinions that could not survive rigorous judicial review."

Guggenheim Securities senior biopharmaceutical equity research analyst Vamil Divan wrote in a note that a "Potential Talc Settlement Could Lift Remaining Overhang on JNJ Shares," adding, "It's Not Over' Til It's Over, but This Time It May Actually Be Over."

Divan added more color:

JNJ has announced an update on their ongoing talc litigation, with the company reaching a proposed settlement that would lead to them paying a minimum of $5.5Bn to resolve the outstanding claims related to the product potentially causing ovarian cancer.

We have lost count on the number of times the company has seemingly come close to resolving this issue but not being successful, but this time appears potentially different with law firms representing the MDL and state leadership supporting the resolution and apparently poised to recommend it to their clients, per the company.

JNJ also clarified to us that the minimum $5.5Bn commitment would be paid out on a claim-by-claim basis based on a grid that assigns a value to each claim based on numerous criteria, starting with $3Bn next year.

We would note that our investor discussions on talc have declined markedly over the past year as the company has delivered significant positive progress both commercially and with their pipeline, particularly in Innovative Medicine.

As a result, it is not clear to us how much of an overhang this talc litigation actually is on JNJ shares anymore. However, we believe expectations were still in the ~$10Bn range for what JNJ may need to pay to settle all of the outstanding ovarian cancer claims, so if this can be resolved for ~$5.5Bn then we think that should be received positively by the Street.

Analysts from Citi offered their take on the J&J development:

Another Proposed Resolution for Ovarian Talc, Hopefully the Last

Management has proposed another resolution of its ovarian talc litigation, potentially tying off 15 years of litigation. The resolution follows a July 22 court ordering that plaintiffs exhibit why the remaining talc claims should not be dismissed for inability to prove specific causation – “The order followed plaintiffs’ withdrawal of their specific causation experts in two bellwether cases, after a hearing that demonstrated their opinions were not based upon reliable scientific methodologies.” The resolution requires participation of at least 95% of the remaining claimants, with total payments of $5.5B including the first payment of no more than $3B in 2027, and no additional payments before 2028. While management has been at this threshold previously, with the inability of the plaintiffs to provide specific causation in these pivotal cases, it appears that this proposed resolution will be the final, successful one. We rate JNJ Buy.

J&J shares rose about 2% in premarket trading. The stock had gained nearly 29% for the year through Monday's close.

Wall Street remains firmly bullish. Among analysts tracked by Bloomberg, 71.4% rate J&J a "Buy," while the remaining 28.6% recommend "Hold." None carries a "Sell" rating.

The average 12-month price target stands at $276.24.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 09:40

Max'd Out Again: FAA Proposes Inspections For Hundreds Of Boeing 737 Planes Over Seat Installations

Zero Hedge -

Max'd Out Again: FAA Proposes Inspections For Hundreds Of Boeing 737 Planes Over Seat Installations

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is proposing an inspection of hundreds of seats installed in Boeing 737 Max aircraft due to safety concerns.

The FAA proposed adopting a new airworthiness directive for three 737 Max models—737-8, 737-9, and 737-8200, the agency said in a notice published in the Federal Register on July 27.

An airworthiness directive is a legally enforceable regulation issued by the FAA to correct what it deems to be an unsafe condition in a product. The proposed directive “would require a detailed inspection of the seat track fittings of each left and right side track-mounted passenger seat assembly for correct installation and applicable on-condition actions,” the FAA said in a notice.

According to the agency, it has received a report suggesting that certain track-mounted passenger seats were not properly installed in the models’ seat tracks. Incorrect installations can result in seats disengaging from seat tracks during turbulence, increased load, or emergency landing.

If not addressed, the situation could result in passengers and crew members getting injured during an emergency situation and the aisle becoming blocked, which can slow down an evacuation process, the FAA warned.

The FAA decided to issue the notice after determining that the unsafe conditions are “likely to exist or develop on other products of the same type design,” the agency said.

The issue is estimated to affect 453 airplanes. With an estimated 69 track-mounted passenger seat assemblies per airplane, aircraft operators may need to shell out more than $2.65 million to inspect all the affected seats, according to the FAA.

A Boeing spokesperson said the planemaker issued guidance to ​operators about the issue in December 2025.

“We support the FAA making that guidance mandatory,” the spokesperson said.

The FAA recently determined that Boeing can resume issuing airworthiness certifications for these models. An airworthiness certificate is issued at the last stage of an aircraft’s production process and confirms that the plane is safe to operate.

The FAA prohibited Boeing from issuing these certificates for newly built 737 planes in 2019 following two accidents.

In the first incident, a Lion Air Flight 610 crashed over Indonesia in October 2018. A few months later, in March 2019, Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 crashed in Ethiopia. Combined, the accidents resulted in the deaths of 346 passengers and crew members.

In 2022, the FAA also stopped Boeing from issuing airworthiness certificates for 787 planes due to production quality issues.

In September 2025, the FAA allowed Boeing to start issuing these certificates for some of the 787 and 737 Max planes. The agency and Boeing issued certificates on alternating weeks.

The FAA said earlier this month that over the past eight months, it has observed that the airworthiness certificates issued by the agency and Boeing had “comparable production quality findings.”

The agency decided that Boeing can now handle this responsibility. The FAA will continue inspecting, monitoring, and auditing Boeing’s production system. The oversight will involve “closely observing and assessing” the company’s safety culture and Safety Management System, the agency said.

“The decision follows months of thorough data and safety review demonstrating consistent production quality and reflects the FAA’s confidence in Boeing’s ability to issue airworthiness certificates under FAA oversight,” the FAA said in a July 17 statement.

737 Deliveries, Orders

Boeing generated better-than-expected cash flow in the second quarter on continued strong demand for its aircraft, extending the US manufacturer’s turnaround efforts after years of crises.

The company reported free cash flow of $631 million thanks to higher payments for new aircraft, solidly beating analyst estimates of a $331 million outflow.

Revenue rose 8% to $24.6 billion, and Boeing said it still aims to generate $1 billion to $3 billion in free cash this year.

The planemaker is now building 47 of its 737 Max aircraft each month in the Seattle area, with plans to increase that rate eventually to 63.

Ramping up production is key to repairing its balance sheet and cashing in on an order book worth $715 billion that gained a boost from a slate of commitments at last week’s Farnborough International Airshow.

Boeing announced over 170 firm and preliminary orders at the show and the company’s management said demand remained strong for its aircraft. 

“While we’re making progress on our development programs, you’re never done until you’re done,” Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg told employees in a memo alongside the earnings.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 09:22

US Home Prices Unexpectedly Jumped In May; Chicago Leading, Vegas Lagging

Zero Hedge -

US Home Prices Unexpectedly Jumped In May; Chicago Leading, Vegas Lagging

Having declined for three straight months, US home prices in America's 20 largest cities was expected to rise very marginally (+0.1% MoM) in May (according to the latest data from S&P Cotality Case-Shiller).

Instead, home prices accelerated 0.3% MoM (better than expected), lifting the annual appreciation to +1.63% YoY - the fastest annual price gain since July 2025...

“Monthly price appreciation continues to reflect the seasonal strength often associated with the spring homebuying season,” Rebecca Kaufman, Associate Director of Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indice observed.

“On a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis, the National Index rose 0.6% in May from April, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites each advanced 0.9%."

After adjusting for seasonality, the National Index declined 0.05% month over month, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted modest gains of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.

"The gap between the NSA and seasonally adjusted results underscores the extent to which seasonal factors are supporting headline price growth," added Kaufman.

"Even where prices increased on a seasonally adjusted basis, gains remained modest and were negative in real terms.

The geographic dispersion of home price trends continues to persist.

Kaufman noted that while major metropolitan areas in the Northeast and Midwest recorded year-over-year gains exceeding the national average, many metropolitan areas in the West and Sunbelt regions remain under pressure.

For the third consecutive month, Chicago led all metros with a 6.9% annual increase in May, followed by New York (4.2%) and Cleveland (3.1%).

In contrast, Las Vegas posted the largest decline, falling 1.9% year over year, with Seattle (-1.8%), Denver (-1.8%), and Tampa (-1.6%) also registering notable losses."

Given the lag in Case-Shiller data, mortgage rates could argue that prices should be starting to rise here...

“Affordability remains a significant headwind for the housing market,” Kaufman concluded.

“Thirty-year mortgage rates increased to 6.5% in May, leaving the ultra-low 3% borrowing costs a distant memory. At the same time, stubbornly high inflation rates are keeping both the cost of home financing and the cost of living high for prospective buyers.

“Against this backdrop, housing demand remains constrained, elevated borrowing costs continue to discourage potential homebuyers, and housing values decline in real terms for existing homeowners.”

But the oddly tight coupling with Fed Reserves suggests the path is lower...

Interestingly, for the 12th consecutive month, inflation outpaced national home price appreciation, with CPI running well above the 1.6% annual gain, extending the streak of negative real home price returns.

Is this Trump's 'affordability' plan kicking in? Or just lagged rates finally impacting reality.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 09:13

This Is The Chart That Jensen Huang Does Not Want You To See

Zero Hedge -

This Is The Chart That Jensen Huang Does Not Want You To See

In October 2025, while the world and his pet rabbit was buying anything-AI with both hands and feet, we were the first to warn that "AI Is Now A Debt Bubble Too, Quietly Surpassing All Banks To Become The Largest Sector In The Market"...

...as the world began to wake up to the negative free cash flow implications of the unprecedented CapEx spend required to achieve AI-Utopia... and therefore the need to fund that via debt (and equity)...

The poster-child at the time was Oracle, which had seen its stock explode higher on the back of the latest circular-financing deal involving OpenAI and NVDA, "The dissonance between ORCL equity dreamers and credit realists is dramatic to say the least."

With the interconnected web of reacharound deals growing more and more complex... to keep the dream alive.

Following our exposé, several in the mainstream media started picking up on this - including CNBC's David Faber - but as AI stocks reaccelerated off the Iran-ceasefire-dip lows, momentum-chasers dominated any fundamental (real world economics) threat.

But, that reality was still there, getting worse, growing larger, and being recognized by more and more credit market professionals as "an issue", and we continued to document...

And most recently, just this week: "Goldman's One-Delta Desk Weighs 'High Degree Of Policy Reflexivity' Versus Hyperscaler Debt Doubts"

And now even Fitch Ratings is realizing, just 10 months after us, that the real bubble is in AI Debt.

Simply put, as Goldman's Rich Privorotsky noted this week: the cracks around hyperscaler financing continue to widen as the market struggles to find the appropriate clearing price for companies that have historically run under levered balance sheets but now have enormous capital ambitions

The last week or so has seen questions about hyperscalers' ability to fund the massive CapEx required to keep the AI dream alive with the explosion in hyperscaler credit risk finally starting to weigh on the stocks of those companies (GOOGL didn't help with no credible visibility on ROI to ease those fears)...

The cost of protecting against default is rising across all the hyperscalers (with ORCL and CRWV most worrisome)...

All of which brings us to Nvidia...

But, it is NVDA's credit risk that has surged by the most on record after reports of the chipmaker being in conversations on hundreds of billions of artificial intelligence infrastructure deals stoked fears about the company’s obligations.

July 24: Nvidia announced a $500 billion partnership with SK Group, the parent company of South Korean chipmaking giant SK Hynix

July 24: Nvidia announced a $1 billion investment in Naver as part of a partnership to help build South Korea's sovereign AI infrastructure.

July 26: The WSJ reported that Nvidia is helping back roughly $250 billion in financing for OpenAI's planned 10-gigawatt AI data center in Ohio

July 26: The WSJ also reported that Nvidia is discussing up to $350 billion in financing to help OpenAI purchase its AI chips

July 27: Nvidia deepened its partnership with Safe Superintelligence, the AI startup founded by former OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever

The increasingly interconnected web of dependencies between technology manufacturers and AI startups continues to stir unease. The risk of these “circular” deals was highlighted last year here, and although markets forgot all about it, they are now once again freaking out.

For JonesTrading chief strategist Mike O’Rourke, investors can “talk about the compute storage all they want and the fundamental demand, but it is clear that a significant portion of Nvidia’s sales come from an ecosystem that Nvidia is artificially creating.”

The result is that the “only certainty one can have is the high degree of uncertainty in the AI environment,” he said. 

All of which snapped NVDA's 5Y CDS spread up to 82bps (intraday) - almost double what it was a week ago...

The level of borrowing across the AI infrastructure likely requires investment-grade ratings, which are difficult for the likes of OpenAI and Anthropic PBC to currently support given they are rapidly burning cash to grow their businesses.

So, backing from big (better-rated) firms can help debt that funds AI infrastructure spending win high-grade ratings.

“The amount of capex needed to build out the AI infrastructure is massive, and debt markets are being inundated with supply,” said Sal Naro, chief investment officer of Coherence Credit Strategies.

“There’s a fear of financial alchemy driven by opaqueness, off-balance-sheet transactions and intercompany relationships, which could result in credit rating downgrades.”

Credit-market signals are a more relevant short term gauge than EPS valuations for hyperscalers, notes Manish Kabra at Societe Generale.

When there is a peak in CDS spreads, it should signal the market beginning to price in an improvement in hyperscalers’ free cash flow and an end to a derating.

But an inflection in FCF is not expected until the second half of 2027, Kabra adds.

And, like everything, there is a limit to what the market will take before those 'better-rated' companies face the same leverage test that the startups do.

All of which brings us to the chart that we are sure Jensen Huang would not want to see emblazened across trading desks.

One of these things is not like the other.

From the inception of NVDA CDS last November until the end of March (ceasefire lows), the two markets were well-synced, as you would expect...

But since then, the divergence has been dramatic (and NVDA's share price is starting to show it)...

While NVDA's stock is 'off the highs' NVDA's credit risk is signaling something considerably worse and there are big tests ahead this week for Nvidia and the broader AI trade.

Hyperscalers Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are set to report earnings across a two-day period. Investors will be closely watching their CapEx guidance, having proven sensitive to heavy spending in recent months. (Just ask Alphabet how their capex forecast was received last week.)

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 08:45

Incompatible With Western Society...?

Zero Hedge -

Incompatible With Western Society...?

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

The comment section under Al Jazeera's Facebook coverage of the Berlin Pride attack has laid bare a reality Western elites still refuse to face.

Hundreds of users with Arab and Muslim names flooded the post with open celebration of the Islamist vehicle-ramming that killed one woman and injured 29 others.

Laughing emojis made up roughly a third of the reactions. Comments praising the attacker with "Alhamdulillah," "Jihad," and "Thank God" stacked up without shame.

The Al Jazeera English Facebook post in question is this one:

There is also an earlier "BREAKING" post about the parade being called off that drew similar reactions:

Laughing emojis made up a conspicuous portion of the reaction totals. These were not isolated trolls. They formed a consistent chorus of approval for the deliberate targeting of people at a Pride event.

The responses also include:

  • "Alhamdu lillah"
  • "Jihad"
  • "Thank God"
  • "Good news indeed"
  • "god is great"
  • "that's good news"
  • "why only one?"
  • "14 idiots injured"
  • "I hope the driver is ok"
  • "please make a gofundme for that driver's future"
  • "The driver deserves a medal ?"
  • "Not all heroes wear capes"
  • "9ice work" / "nice work"
  • "Salute"

These comments sat in plain view under an official Al Jazeera English post, making the ideological incompatibility impossible for anyone still paying attention to ignore.

This is the predictable product of importing large numbers of people whose core religious and cultural worldview treats homosexuality as an abomination worthy of death.

The same ideology that drove 21-year-old Abdul Ballout - German-born of Lebanese origin - to plow a white van into a crowd near Berlin's Christopher Street Day celebrations on Saturday night, then continue the assault with a blade.

Ballout's history is insane. He had already tried to join Islamic State in 2025, traveling to Lebanon to make contact with the group. He was arrested there, served a short sentence, and was flown back to Germany.

In May 2026 a Berlin juvenile court convicted him of preparing a serious act of violence endangering the state and of publishing Islamic State propaganda. He received a suspended sentence, was ordered into deradicalization counseling he barely attended, and walked free. By the weekend he was driving a rental van into Pride revelers in Tiergarten park.

Police tracked him down the following evening in a Spandau garden allotment. When he charged officers with a sharp instrument they shot him dead. The manhunt was over. The policy failure was not.

Ballout's record was no secret. He had prior convictions for assault and robbery. Prosecutors had sought a longer non-suspended sentence. The justice system released him anyway under the soft logic of juvenile law and "deradicalization."

Germany's police officers' association head Dirk Peglow later called the approach too lax: "With people who pose such a threat, the end of their time in detention must not be the end of state supervision."

While the blood was still fresh, Berlin Pride organizers issued a statement warning against using the attack "for political ends."

"People are trying to divide our society and set some people against others. As the CSD in Berlin, we will not allow this," they said. A speaker at a related vigil went further, admitting the first thought after hearing of the car attack was "Hopefully it's not a Kanake... hopefully it's a Christian white person." When it turned out otherwise, the response was more intersectionality.

An Islamist with a documented terrorism history is released, attacks a Pride event, and the institutional left pivots immediately to protect the ideology and the migration system that enabled him.

The same voices that lecture endlessly about "queer safety" suddenly discover that naming the ideology is the real danger. "Queers for Palestine" marched in solidarity with the very ideology that produces these attackers, only for leftists to blame conservatives, GB News, or "whiteness" once the van hit the crowd.

The Al Jazeera comment section simply removed the filter. When the attacker is one of their own, celebration replaces condemnation.

Western societies have spent decades pretending that mass migration from cultures that explicitly reject core liberal freedoms - especially sexual freedom - can be managed with counseling sessions and rainbow flags. The body count and the Facebook reactions say otherwise.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz called the attack "abhorrent" and an assault on openness and freedom. Berlin Mayor Kai Wegner described it as "an attack on our way of life and coexistence." Fine words. They do not change the fact that Ballout was known, convicted, released, and free to act. Nor do they erase the public cheering that followed.

Europe continues to import populations whose stated beliefs and demonstrated behavior are incompatible with the societies that host them.

The results are written in blood on the streets of Berlin and in the laughing emojis under an Al Jazeera post. The refusal to confront that incompatibility is no longer a policy disagreement. It is a death wish.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 08:05

Korea Barbeque'd: Kospi Crashes As Chip Stocks Tank, AI Token Index Spirals Lower

Zero Hedge -

Korea Barbeque'd: Kospi Crashes As Chip Stocks Tank, AI Token Index Spirals Lower

South Korean stocks plunged on Tuesday as concerns over circular AI financing and China's expanding DUV lithography capabilities (read here) were top of mind among investors. Adding to the pressure, chipmakers may not have found a floor just yet because Silicon Data's LLM Token Expenditure Index continues to slide, suggesting that companies are shifting toward cheaper models, particularly open-source alternatives from China.

The Kospi tumbled nearly 11%, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dropping more than 13% each, prompting the Korea Exchange to temporarily halt both cash and program trading for 20 minutes.

South Korea's main equity index has now lost nearly 34% from its peak one month ago, reversing a rally into a vicious bear market. Concerns over AI profitability, Chinese semiconductor competition, forced deleveraging and evaporating liquidity have accelerated the selloff.

Notably, eight of the Kospi's 14 circuit-breaker halts since the Dot-Com era have occurred this year.

Beyond circular AI financing and China potentially catching up in the chip race, weakening AI demand indicators via Silicon Data's LLM Token Expenditure Index only suggest a bottom for chip stocks has yet to materialize.

London-based UBS analyst Joe Dickinson commented on the chip stock selloff, saying it "drives sharp risk-off moves across global markets."

Dickinson added more color:

The KOSPI is down 11% following a weak US handover, dragging the MSCI APAC down 3%, led largely by semiconductors and supply chain proxies. The move was catalyzed by weakness in ASML following reports that China has begun domestic DUV tool production.

Ha SeokKeun, chief investment officer at Eugene Asset Management, said, "Sentiment toward Korean semiconductor stocks is extremely weak. Broad risk-off sentiment, forced deleveraging, widening hyperscaler CDS spreads, and deteriorating retail investor sentiment are all adding to the selling pressure."

The selloff is also driven by doubts about whether hyperscalers can justify their massive Capex plans, and the token index continuing to slump lower may only suggest a sustained migration toward lower-cost models (read here) could undermine forecasted demand for computing and threaten the investment boom cycle that fueled gains in Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC and other chipmakers.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 07:45

"Good Things Could Happen"

Zero Hedge -

"Good Things Could Happen"

By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset strategist at Rabobank

President Trump spoke with reporters yesterday aboard Air Force One, saying that the US is “meeting with Iran” and that “good things could happen”—with the “could” doing some heavy lifting. What the “good things” are, or when they “could happen,” is still TBD. The other alternative is that “if they don’t work out, [the US] will go back to very strong military action.” That, of course, is dependent on whether or not these talks are actually happening (or at least happening with the people who matter) which Iran currently denies.

We heard announcements over the weekend that Trump was “pausing” strikes on Iran. But that doesn’t mean that Iran has paused strikes against its neighbors. Indeed, Jordanian and Israeli military forces both claimed to have intercepted drones in Jordanian airspace early yesterday morning, while sources from Saudi Arabia said that they intercepted drones launched by Iran-backed militias operating in Iraqi territory.

Markets, however, were seemingly unmoved. Brent crude oil futures traded sideways around $90/bbl after gapping lower on the open, while US rates were similarly sluggish. However, the US yield curve continues to flatten, now at 22bp down from recent heights of 73bp, seemingly poised to flatten further as short-term inflation and Fed hike expectations rise. Re-escalated tensions last week led to a sharp spike in 2-year breakeven yields, up more than 21bp from July 23, back to 2.16%. Meanwhile, the US OIS curve signals investor expectations of a hike by the September FOMC meeting, and more than two full Fed hikes by March of next year.

Trump is not taking a note from Warsh with regard to his philosophy on limiting communication on monetary policy, also making his stance on interest rates and the Fed very clear yesterday. Predictably, Trump re-emphasized that he thinks “rates should be lowered,” but qualified that “you need a consensus from people,” highlighting that “Warsh is great, but he has a board.” The tone came across as softer than that he used when speaking of Warsh’s predecessor (perhaps giving Warsh some wiggle room to hold rates (or hike?)), but the bar for softer rhetoric in this instance is on the floor.

In his recently published FOMC preview, Talking about hikes, Rabobank’s Philip Marey writes that hikes are not part of his own Fed forecasts. Still, he expects plenty of chatter around them, both in markets and within the FOMC itself. He points to Kevin Warsh’s desire for a “good family fight” and the possibility of dissents in favor of hikes at the upcoming decision.

While Kevin Warsh does technically need a consensus to come to an interest rate decision, the current composition of the FOMC still appears to favor the doves. A look at where members generally sit on Bloomberg’s Hawk-Dove spectrum suggests an even five-to-five split, with the remaining Board members clustered closer to the middle. However, that headline balance overstates the hawks’ practical position. Warsh sits firmly on the dovish side and, as Fed Chair, has additional influence in shaping the policy discussion and building consensus. More importantly, the voting arithmetic is tilted in the same direction: five of the dovish members are voters, while only two of the more hawkish members currently have a vote, with the others either non-voters or alternates. So, unless the hawks can bring centrists with them, the balance of votes is likely to remain firmly with the doves, raising the bar for hikes even further.

That said, hikes are not entirely off the table. While energy prices have fallen by around $10/bbl from last week, a full-scale re-escalation and persistent disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, could fuel inflationary pressures in the US. Marey writes that “if inflation expectations become unanchored…we may have to pencil in a hike later this year and push the rate cuts further into the future.”

On the other side of the Atlantic, Brussels is still grappling with the prospect that “cold shoulders” and civil discourse are not always the most effective strategies, not only when dealing with an adversary like Russia, but also when trying to wrangle EU members to make any decision. The EU’s proposed sanctions package against Russia failed to pass last week after Greece refused to sign off unless a carve-out was made to allow Greece to continue to transport Russian LNG.

EU officials were furious. According to the Financial Times, one EU official said that “this approach does not work any more” while another lamented that they “don’t want to hear anyone talk about ‘solidarity’ any more.” Still, as Trump put it, “good things could happen.”

Perhaps that means Greece eventually signs off on the sanctions package; perhaps it means a more durable de-escalation further down the line.

For now, though, markets are left trading the gap between what could happen and what has actually happened.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 07:28

Futures Slide As Tech Rout Continues, Kospi Halted As It Crashes 10%

Zero Hedge -

Futures Slide As Tech Rout Continues, Kospi Halted As It Crashes 10%

Futures extend Monday's losses as the Tech tape continues to unravel; global Semis were hit yesterday and again overnight (despite the best attempts of Goldman and JPM to force retail to buy the falling knives) with Asian stocks and especially Korea (-10%) bearing the brunt with fears of Chinese competition accelerating the sell-off and then spilling back over into the US. As of 7:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2% with tech slammed pushing the Nasdaq 0.9% lower and leaving the index set for a five-day run of losses for only the second time this year. Semis are again lower pre-market led by weakness in Nvidia, Intel and Micron, while Mag7 names are mostly bid and outperforming. While Defensives are leading Cyclicals, there are bids to Discretionary and Financials as both sectors look to outperform. As JPM writes in its Market Intel post this morning (available to pro subs), the market is swept in a risk-off tone (where all the news continues to be sold) that is continuing both the broadening in the US and a rotation ex-US where EU may continue to outperform as investors tilt towards Value; the $64 trillion question remains when do Semis / AI find a bottom. There is some good news as expectations (because they certainly are not taking place) of US, Iran negotiations are reducing commodity prices. As such yields are down 3bps, the USD is flat, and commodities are weaker led by Energy and Precious with Base and Softs the outperformers. Today’s macro data focus is on the weekly ADP print, Housing price indices, Consumer Confidence, Import / Export data, Inventories, and regional Fed activity indicators. 

In premarket trading, chip producers and other AI-related firms are extending their selloff as worries about China’s progress in advanced chipmaking weighs down sentiment. This is also exasperating concerns over the sustainability of the AI spending boom that has propelled the sector in recent years.

  • Tesla and Nvidia are underperforming Magnificent 7 stocks during the selloff in chipmakers and AI-linked firms:
  • Microsoft +1.1%, Apple +0.6%, Meta Platforms +0.4%, Alphabet +0.1%, Amazon +0.1%, Nvidia -1%, Tesla (TSLA) -1.4%.
  • Applied Digital (APLD) gains 2.9% after the digital infrastructure designer reported fourth-quarter revenue to $258.7 million, a 407% increase from a year ago.
  • Cadence Design Systems Inc. (CDNS) is up 2.5% after the electronic design automation software company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.
  • Carrier Global (CARR) jumps 5.1% after the HVAC company boosted its sales forecast for the full year.
  • United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) is up 2.7% after boosting guidance for the year, suggesting the courier is benefiting from strong pricing as it works to shift volume from low-margin e-commerce shipments to more-profitable packages.

In other corporate news Johnson & Johnson agreed to a $5.5 billion commitment to resolve litigation related to claims that its talc products caused ovarian cancer. KKR is said to be exploring options for LS Automotive India including a sale. In deals, Curium is said to be in advanced talks to acquire radiopharma company Lantheus Holdings in a transaction that could value Lantheus at up to $8 billion, including contingent value rights. Stellantis agreed to sell its car-sharing business Free2move to a German private equity firm, part of a plan by the maker of Fiat and Peugeot cars to exit unprofitable businesses and refocus investments on core brands and regions.

While the weeks-long volatility in chipmakers is rumbling on amid fresh concerns over massive debt issuance, debt-funded AI capex spending and rising competition from China, traders are rotating into consumer stocks and other sectors that tend to generate relatively stable revenues regardless of the economic cycle. Lower crude prices also eased inflationary angst, with Brent dropping 3% to below $86 a barrel. The global benchmark is falling for a third straight day as the US and Iran extended their pause in hostilities. Focus will now turn to talks between Tehran and Oman over restarting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

“It’s perfectly legitimate for investors to dilute their positions in semiconductors. It’s a good time indeed to take some profits and diversify,” said Vincent Juvyns at ING Groep NV. “That being said, I advise clients to stay invested as visibility is pretty good for the sector.”

There’s more than earnings to consider over the coming days, of course. Citadel Securities’ Frank Flight, the firm’s head of macro strategy, expects the Fed to raise interest rates this week. “The market may once again be underestimating the extent of the hawkish shift at the Fed,” Flight wrote in a note. A hike “would emphatically end the forward guidance era” while underscoring the Fed’s independence, he said.

Meanwhile, the increasingly interconnected web of dependencies between technology manufacturers and AI startups continues to stir unease. The risk of these “circular” deals was highlighted last year here, and although markets forgot all about it, they are now once again freaking out. For JonesTrading chief strategist Mike O’Rourke, investors can “talk about the compute storage all they want and the fundamental demand, but it is clear that a significant portion of Nvidia’s sales come from an ecosystem that Nvidia is artificially creating.” The result is that the “only certainty one can have is the high degree of uncertainty in the AI environment,” he said. 

Credit-market signals are a more relevant short term gauge than EPS valuations for hyperscalers, notes Manish Kabra at Societe Generale. When there is a peak in CDS spreads, it should signal the market begining to price in an improvement in hyperscalers’ free cash flow and an end to a derating. But an inflection in FCF is not expected until the second half of 2027, Kabra adds. 

The gap between single-stock and index volatility is off its highs, but remains close to historical extremes, consistent with very low implied correlation. The combined effect of dispersion and sector rotation beneath the surface have caused individual stock moves to cancel each other out at the index level within the S&P 500.

Elsewhere in markets, corn futures in Chicago rose as government data pointed to the sharpest drop in US crop conditions in three years, potentially reducing supply. The biggest US power grid, PJM Interconnection, is warning that data centers may face involuntary outages under a plan to avert widespread blackouts and protect residential ratepayers from electricity price spikes.

Asia bore the brunt of Tuesday’s selling. The regional benchmark headed for a correction after SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics Co. tumbled more than 13% in Seoul.  The KOSPI tumbled 10%, closing at session lows following another 20 minute marketwide halt, on concern about circular AI financing and new DUV capability from China which may increase memory supply. The macro spillover is continuing. As KOSPI is down over 30% from the peak, Goldman estimates the retail wealth effect to reduce by ~15bp of GDP. Drop in equities also eases financing pressure from leveraged ETF, especially as govt continues to step up control on the product. 

Tech stocks are also slipping in Europe, but that’s being offset by strength in consumer goods and autos stocks, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.4%. European chip giant ASML extended losses for the week to 10% following the emergence of a possible Chinese state-backed rival. Still, advancing stocks in the Stoxx 600 outnumbered decliners by more than two to one even as earnings from Barclays Plc, LVMH and Unilever Plc drew a mixed reaction. The Stoxx 600 benchmark rose 0.4%. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1% as investors await the Fed’s decision due later this week.    Interest-rate futures imply roughly a 38% chance of a quarter-point increase on Wednesday. The Fed is likely to leave rates unchanged but renewed tensions in the Middle East and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s decision to hold a press conference “have made it a closer call than anyone would have thought a couple of weeks ago,” wrote Erik Weisman, chief economist and portfolio manager at MFS Investment Management

  • JPY retreats slightly against the USD given the recent modest strength in the DXY; USD/JPY remains under the 23rd July peak at 162.42.
  • EUR is modestly softer against the USD amid the lack of fresh catalysts. EUR/USD reside towards the bottom end of a 1.1354-1.1380 range at the time of writing.
  • GBP has dipped under 1.33 (vs high 1.3305) amid the aforementioned DXY upside with limited UK-specific drivers in the session.

In rates, 10Y TSY yields are down 3bps to 4.62%, down 10bps since July 23 when Brent traded up to $100, with UK gilts slightly outperforming as investors trim their Bank of England rate-hike bets ahead of this week’s meeting. 

In commodities, oil prices slide for a second day, with Brent sitting around $86 having touched $100 last week. That’s buoying bond markets, with yields falling across the US, Europe and the UK.  Gold prices are down, though holding above $4,000/oz, and Bitcoin slipped below $64,000.

Looking the day ahead now, economic data includes US June advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, July Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Dallas Fed Services activity, May FHFA house price Index, and France July consumer confidence. We’ll also be getting a large batch of earnings including Visa, Coca-Cola, Boeing, NXP Semiconductors, Teradyne and Ford.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

  • The Kospi index follows a weak US session lower, falling as much as 10.7%. Asia’s semiconductor related stocks come under intense selling pressure dragging the MSCI AC Asia Pacific index down over 3%
  • The Kospi slumped as much as 10.7%, heading for the worst session since early March as both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix slid more than 12%. Korea Exchange triggered a circuit breaker for the benchmark, marking its eighth such halt this year
  • German officials are working behind the scenes to identify Chinese economic vulnerabilities that they could exploit if the European Union finds itself in a trade war with the world’s second-largest economy
  • Australia’s central bank chief said there are signs the economy is cooling as anticipated, though it’s still unclear if this year’s interest-rate hikes are enough to return inflation to target or whether additional tightening will be needed
  • China set a ceiling on new US tariffs and warned Washington against sanctioning Chinese artificial intelligence companies, drawing boundaries weeks before the next meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping
  • A selloff in semiconductor stocks deepened Tuesday, as signs of China’s progress in advanced chipmaking weighed on global rivals and concern mounted over the sustainability of the artificial intelligence spending boom
  • President Donald Trump said the US and Iran were engaged in diplomatic talks to end the Middle East conflict, but warned the two sides would return to fighting if negotiations didn’t yield a deal
  • A nearly $600 billion rout in just a little over a month has flipped SK Hynix Inc. from one of the world’s hottest AI trades to one of the biggest portfolio question marks
  • Oil extended a steep decline after President Donald Trump said that the US and Iran were engaged in talks to try to end the Middle East conflict, with the two sides continuing to hold off on attacks
  • US Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said the tsunami threat from the Japan earthquake has now passed, with no tsunami threat remaining for Japan's coast.
  • Shots fired at US consulate in Toronto for the second time this year, according to the New York Post. 
  • US Senate votes to advance Trump nominee Clayton for Director of National Intelligence role.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly negative amid a tech bloodbath and competition concerns following reports that China had started mass production of domestically developed DUV lithography equipment, which had pressured ASML shares and the Nasdaq yesterday. ASX 200 bucked the trend as strength in telecoms and the consumer sectors offset the weakness in miners, materials and resources. Nikkei 225 briefly fell beneath the 62,000 level amid the tech-related losses, with Kioxia heavily pressured. KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker with double-digit declines seen in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lower but with downside limited in Hong Kong amid the mixed performance among the local tech bluechips, while the mainland was subdued as trade frictions lingered with the US reportedly probing Chinese factories in Vietnam.

Top Asian News

  • Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said must communicate with JGB market in run-up to budget compilation, and we hadn't done that. said:. Believes the government's relationship with the BoJ has been smooth. Very good that final version of the Economic Blueprint has won market understanding. Not currently considering JGB buybacks. Global bond markets have been affected by various factors such as US monetary policy, Ukraine and Middle East situations. Weak yen can have both merits and demerits. Won't comment on specific FX levels and won't comment on potential intervention. No change in stance that we're ready to respond on Forex as needed.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said taking price relief measures one after another, also noted that foreign banks' participation in projects under Japan's US investment scheme wipes out concerns about dollar funding.
  • 5.0 magnitude earthquake in Qinghai, China, CENC reported. 
  • Japan's Nuclear Regulation authority said there are no irregularities at nearby nuclear power plants after earthquake. Includes Ikata, Genkai, Sendai plants.
  • Earthquake of prelim 7.1 magnitude hits Japan's Kyushu, NIED reported; issues tsunami warning of 1 metre, NHK reported.

European bourses began the session firmer despite sharp losses in APAC, particularly the KOSPI (-10%). At the time of writing, the Euro Stoxx 50 sees gains capped as ASML continued to weigh following reports China started DUV tool production, with the stock extending losses after Monday’s -8.5% decline. Sectors are mostly in the green, with Optimised Personal Care leading and Energy lagging, the former weighed on by LVMH post earnings. Broader sentiment is supported by optimism around US–Iran talks (see commodities for further details), which weighs on crude and underpins equities. Movers: ASML extends losses (-1.5%) on China DUV concerns. In earnings, LVMH (-1%) reported a revenue beat but softer Fashion & Leather Goods sales, Unilever (+6%) beat and raised guidance, while Mercedes-Benz (+3%) cut revenue guidance but maintained margins. In APAC, SK Hynix and Samsung fell ~12% amid memory concerns linked to CXMT’s listing.

Top European News

  • US diplomats walked out of a UN Security Council meeting after France publicly criticised the Trump administration's human rights record.

FX

  • DXY was directionless for most of the European morning before picking up in recent trade despite a lack of US-specific catalysts, with markets increasingly viewing the upcoming Fed meeting as potentially “live”. Tightening bets remained around a 30% probability of a 25bps hike, though softer crude limited further upside in the Buck. DXY has been edging higher in recent trade after topping the 1st July peak (101.60) and aims for the 25th June high at 101.75.
  • JPY retreats slightly against the USD given the recent modest strength in the DXY; USD/JPY remains under the 23rd July peak at 162.42.
  • EUR is modestly softer against the USD amid the lack of fresh catalysts. EUR/USD reside towards the bottom end of a 1.1354-1.1380 range at the time of writing.
  • GBP has dipped under 1.33 (vs high 1.3305) amid the aforementioned DXY upside with limited UK-specific drivers in the session.
  • Antipodeans underperform, led by AUD, which drifted lower to a 0.6963 base following remarks from RBA Governor Bullock that were viewed as lacking strong forward guidance. NOK also lagged as oil prices declined, with the cross nearing parity (1.001).
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7928 vs exp. 6.7730 (prev. 6.7911).

Fixed Income

  • UST are firmer, gaining around five ticks at best to a 108-24+ peak, just above Monday’s 108-22 high but still shy of last week’s 109-00 and 109-08+ peaks. The move was driven by the pullback in energy amid US–Iran diplomacy, with focus turning to incoming data and a 7yr auction.
  • Bunds trade in line with USTs but with slightly greater magnitude, holding around 10 ticks below the 125.21 peak while still posting gains of a similar amount. The upside is supported by softer energy prices, with some caution ahead of the Fed given the ~30% implied probability of a July hike.
  • Gilts opened on the front foot and outperform, gapping higher by around 10 ticks before extending to a 87.48 peak, taking out last week’s high. The benchmark then looks towards prior resistance levels at 87.60, 87.72 and 87.82.
  • Italy sell EUR 2.5bln vs exp. EUR 2-2.5bln 2.20% 2028 and 0.50% 2028 BTP and EUR 3bln vs exp. EUR 2.5-3bln 2.00% 2037 BTPei. 2.20% 2028: b/c 1.79x (prev. 1.51x) & average yield 2.89% (prev. 2.74%). 0.50% 2028: b/c 1.90x & average yield 2.92%.2.00% 2037 BTPei: b/c 1.4x & real yield 2.04%.
  • UK DMO sold GBP 750mln of 0.125% Jan 2028 Gilts via tender: average yield 4.090% (prev. 3.989%); b/c 5.35x (prev. 4.97x).
  • Netherlands sold EUR 2.99bln (exp. 2.0-3.0bln) 2.75% 2036 DSL: average yield 3.206% (prev. 3.209%).
  • Japan sold JPY 649bln in 10yr, 20yr and 30yr JGBs in enhanced liquidity auction; b/c 2.68 vs. Prev. 2.92. Highest accepted spread +0.004% vs. Prev. +0.020%. Allotment of bids at highest spread 87.6152% vs. Prev. 98.6666%. Australia sold AUD 800mln 4.25% October 2036 bonds, avg. yield 5.0345%, b/c 4.70.

Commodities

  • Crude futures are lower as US–Iran diplomacy (at face value) continue to improve sentiment, with Oman’s Hormuz proposal and reports of Iranian “flexibility” weighing on prices. Brent Oct’26 trades towards the bottom of a USD 83.58–85.60/bbl range, while WTI Sep’26 sits near the lower end of USD 80.36–82.43/bbl. Dutch TTF was also softer by almost 2%, finding support around EUR 56/MWh.
  • Precious metals are subdued despite lower oil, as geopolitical risk premium unwinds and caution emerges ahead of the FOMC.
  • Spot gold trades within a narrow USD 4,034–4,081/oz range, inside Friday’s USD 4,022–4,082/oz band.
  • Base metals are on a softer footing, though losses were contained by constructive geopolitics. The complex is weighed on by weak APAC tech sentiment, with 3M LME copper trading within a USD 13,620.00–13,739.83/t range.
  • Libya's NOC said it halted production at the El Feel oil field (80-90k BPD) and a partial halt to the Wafa field (20-30k BPD), according to Sky News Arabia & Al Hadath; due to protest action.
  • Saudi Aramco is mulling new oil pricing to reflect higher freight costs for cargoes loading from Egypt's Sidi Kerir to Asia.
  • QatarEnergy has extended LNG force majeure for European customers.

Trade/Tariffs

  • Germany said to be working on mapping China's weaknesses in preparation for potential future trade war, Bloomberg
  • reported.
  • China said it never deliberately pursues a trade surplus and vows to strengthen industry through global coordination, according to Xinhua.
  • US probes Chinese factories in Vietnam, stoking new levy fears.
  • US Trade Representative Greer said in Fox News interview new Section 301 tariffs shouldn't cause economic effects we're not already facing, adds tariff rates are comparable to previous tariffs and talks with Mexico are focused on ensuring balanced trade

Central Banks

  • Citadel Securities said Fed chair Kevin Warsh could surprise with a rate hike this week, which would bolster his credibility in the inflation fight.
  • RBA Governor Bullock said board is ready to hike cash rate further if needed, while key question is if tightening already delivered is enough to slow inflation. said:. Policy works with a lag, meaning the full impact of this year's rate increases has yet to emerge. The strongest contribution monetary policy can make is to preserve low and stable inflation. Further slowing in demand growth will likely be needed to bring inflation lower. Some additional easing in labour market conditions will probably be required. The economy has adjusted gradually and broadly in line with expectations. Monetary policy cannot solve Australia's weak productivity growth. Underlying inflation has developed as expected but remains too high. Businesses continue to report increasing non-labour cost pressures. The housing market has softened more than anticipated. Demand growth is moderating broadly in line with the May baseline forecasts. It remains too early to judge the full economic impact of the recent oil shock. Don't know what the board will decide at next meeting, will depend on whether board thinks policy is restrictive. Will have some difficult decisions to make if board thinks inflation is not coming down.
  • Philippine Central Bank Governor said large inflation impact seen in 2027 and 2028, adds peso decline could also cause increase in inflation, also sees small chance for aggressive tightening. said:When the dollar is strong, we limit intervention to maintain order.

Russia-Ukraine

  • Russia's Tyumen oil refinery halted operations on July 25 after a drone attack, sources say.
  • Finland temporarily closes airspace near Russia amid potential stray drone.
  • EU hesitates to target an Irish alumina plant accused of supplying Russia's war industry, amid fear of cutting off supplies critical for European industry, according to FT.
  • US President Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky at 09:30EDT/14:30BST and will meet with Israeli PM
  • Netanyahu at 11:30EDT/16:30BST on Tuesday.
  • US Senate is expected to start voting on Russia sanctions bill as soon as Tuesday during Ukrainian President Zelensky's visit.

Middle East

  • A military source from Sanaa, Yemen reportedly stated that the recent Yemeni operation showed that Saudi Arabia's oil facilities are now on the list of legitimate targets available to Yemen, Tasnim reported.
  • Iran has lost c. 230mln/CM of gas production capacity during the US-Iran conflict, JRTV reported.
  • Iran demonstrating 'flexibility' over Hormuz Strait operations, sources tell Al Jazeera.
  • Oman is said to have presented to Iran a proposal for a joint regional mechanism to manage the Strait of Hormuz with
  • "voluntary fees", according to Reuters sources. The source said Iran would not exercise sole control of the Strait.
  • Iran's Foreign Minister is said to have held phone called on Strait of Hormuz security with Saudi and Oman officials.
  • US-led talks between Israel and Lebanon will take place in Rome on August 4-6, according to a State Department official.
  • US official noted significant momentum in Israel-Lebanon peace track. Talks are to focus on redeployment and border issues in Lebanon.
  • US officials say that sanctions may damage Iran more than bombing and Trump administration said to focus on economic pressure to force Iran deal, according to Axios.
  • Oman's Foreign Minister held called with counterparts from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Egypt to discuss efforts to reduce tensions, according to Iran International. Talks focused on pursuing practical, fair and sustainable understandings through political and diplomatic channels, ensuring safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and restoring the uninterrupted flow of trade and global supply chains.
  • Iran will maintain special regime for passage of Russian vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, according to TASS.
  • Israel conducts artillery attack on eastern Gaza City, according to SNN.
  • Hamas delegations is carrying positive positions on the roadmap presented by Gaza representative Mladenov and the
  • mediators, provided Israel agrees, Al Jazeera reported citing sources
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu reportedly struggled to get on US President Trump's schedule for today, Axios reported, suggesting the Israeli PM's influence is waning.
  • Satellite images show that recent Iranian strikes hit Amazon (AMZN) data centres.
  • Reports of an Israeli drone airstrike in southern Lebanon, Al Jazeera reported.
  • Iranian, Omani, and Saudi Foreign Ministers held a phone call yesterday; notable details light.
  • Occurrences of explosions in Saudi Arabia and Jordan, ISNA reported citing sources; six explosions occurred near oil and gas facilities in the Al-Sharqiyah region of Saudi Arabia.
  • Reports of widespread drone attacks on eastern Jordan’s desert, Press TV reported.
  • Jordanian army said that they shot down a drone that violated Jordanian airspace in the eastern desert.
  • Iraqi sources report attack on separatist group's weapons depot in Sulaymaniya, Iraq.
  • Report noted that drone and rocket attack in Erbil was near the US consulate.
  • More than seven explosions heard in Erbil, northern Iraq with the headquarters of separatists rocked, while US Consulate in Erbil was also reportedly targeted, according to IRIB.
  • Explosions reported in Erbil, northern Iraq, with the Khor Mor Gas Field attacked, according to Tasnim and SNN.

US Event Calendar

To the day ahead now, economic data includes US June advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, July Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Dallas Fed Services activity, and May FHFA house price Index. We’ll also be getting a large batch of earnings including Visa, Coca-Cola, Boeing, NXP Semiconductors, Teradyne and Ford.

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Tech concerns have been the dominant driver in Asia this morning as renewed worries over AI investment spending, and competition from cheaper Chinese companies, have triggered another selloff in global semiconductor stocks. The KOSPI (-10.11%) is the worst-performing index, heading for its steepest decline since early March during the onset of the US-Iran conflict with the sharp drop also prompting circuit-breaker measures earlier in the session. The benchmark is being weighed down by major chipmakers, with SK Hynix falling as much as -13% and Samsung Electronics declining around -12%. Additionally, the Nikkei (-4.10%) is also seeing sharp losses, falling to its weakest level since May 22 with Kioxia Holdings down another -18% and now roughly -60% lower from its peak in late June, around the time we discussed its remarkable story in the WOW! pack given it had gone from nowhere to become the largest company in Japan in a few months. A really remarkable story.

This sums up the past 24 hours as markets have been caught between a new sell-off in chipmakers and the positive news that the US-Iran pause from over the weekend would continue as both sides negotiate in talks. This meant that the S&P 500 (+0.02%) and Nasdaq (-0.16%) were little changed yesterday after an initial rally, whilst the Philly Semi Stock Exchange Index (-2.23%) fell further. The equity performance also wasn’t helped by new highs in real yields, though nominal 10yr Treasury yields (-2.8bps) came down as Brent crude fell -8.70% yesterday, in its largest decline since April. It is an additional -2.0% lower this morning, trading at $86.59/bbl, after being at $101 on Friday morning. S&P 500 (-0.22%) and Nasdaq (-0.74%) futures are lower this morning. 

Elsewhere overnight, the CSI 300 (-2.12%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.90%) are also lower but we have seen CXMT Corp.’s blockbuster debut in Shanghai over the last 24 hours. Their shares surged a stunning +466% after the IPO yesterday. The listing has reinforced investor confidence in Beijing’s drive for semiconductor self-sufficiency and has propelled the company to become China’s most valuable firm. It has also helped send shockwaves around the semis world. 

Turning to the Middle East, Trump said in an interview with Axios yesterday that he had paused strikes on Iran whilst negotiations are taking place, although if the talks fail, the US would “go back to very strong military action.” He also suggested in comments to reporters that “there’s a good chance” of a deal, saying repeatedly that talks were progressing. And while Iran’s Foreign Ministry suggested that no formal negotiations were taking place with the US, we saw continued reporting of talks between Iran and Oman on re-opening the Strait of Hormuz. There was also some more concerning news, not least with Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities over the weekend. But overall, the focus on talks sent front-month Brent crude -8.70% lower, while 6-month Brent futures were down -3.29% to $79.67/bbl.

The fall in oil prices meant that near-term inflation expectations also declined, with the US 1yr inflation swap down -10.5bps to 1.93%, while the Euro 1yr inflation swap (-18.0bps to 2.42%) fell even more. The decline in breakevens was partially offset by a rise in real yields, with the 2yr real Treasury yield up +7.7bps, while the 10yr real yield rose +1.5bps to 2.45%, its highest since October 2023. Put together, this left nominal yields a few basis points lower on the day, including for 10yr Treasuries (-2.8bps), bunds (-3.8bps), OATs (-4.5bps), and gilts (-2.6bps). 

The Treasury rally was more marginal at the front-end, with pricing of a Fed rate hike as soon as tomorrow stable at 38% yesterday. Staying with the Fed, in a separate interview onboard Air Force One Trump reiterated that interest rates in the US should be lower and that “Warsh’ll do the right thing,” saying “I know what he wants.” Meanwhile for the ECB, we did see a bit more of a pullback in hike expectations, with pricing of further hikes by the December meeting down -1.6bps to 42bps.

After rallying at the open on the retreat in oil prices, US equities whipsawed lower after chip stocks sold off. The catalyst was chip-equipment manufacturer ASML (-8.41%), whose shares fell after the Information reported that a Chinese company had successfully started mass production of deep ultraviolet lithography machines needed to create advanced semiconductors. The news led to a decline across other chip-equipment peers, with the Philly Semi Stock Exchange Index down -2.23% yesterday.  Nvidia (-4.99%) shares also fell after it was revealed that the company was working on AI deals worth more than $750bn, renewing investor worries on circular AI financing.

The broader equity mood music was better, however, with nearly two-thirds of the S&P 500 higher on the day and the small cap Russell 2000 up +0.62%. And in Europe, indices including the DAX (+1.04%), CAC 40 (+0.40%) and FTSE 100 (+0.42%) saw decent gains, although the Stoxx 600 (+0.02%) was dragged down by ASML and other semi companies.

Economic data was light yesterday but we did get Germany’s July IFO business climate release (86.6 vs 86.0) surprise to the upside, driven by the expectations component (86.7 vs 84.8 est), which may reflect the federal government’s recently adopted reform measures.

Finally, the Swiss Franc weakened after Bloomberg reported that the SNB expects to keep its interest rates at 0% until the end of 2027. The Swiss franc fell by about a quarter of a percent against the euro following the story, though its daily decline was a more modest -0.09%. 

To the day ahead now, economic data includes US June advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, July Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Dallas Fed Services activity, May FHFA house price Index, and France July consumer confidence. We’ll also be getting a large batch of earnings including Visa, Coca-Cola, Boeing, NXP Semiconductors, Teradyne and Ford.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 07:25

Tether's XAUt Gold Token Receives Shariah Certification To Expand Islamic Finance Access

Zero Hedge -

Tether's XAUt Gold Token Receives Shariah Certification To Expand Islamic Finance Access

Authored by Nate Kostar via CoinTelegraph.com,

Tether’s gold-backed token XAUt has received Shariah certification from Amanah Advisors, a move that could expand access to the token among Islamic financial institutions and investors seeking Shariah-compliant exposure to physical gold.

The certification found XAUt’s structure complies with key Islamic finance principles, including full backing by physical gold, the absence of interest and leverage, and transparent reserves.

Each XAUt token represents one troy ounce of physical gold stored in Swiss vaults, according to Tether.

The designation gives Tether a clearer pathway to market XAUt to Islamic financial institutions and investors that require Shariah-compliant investment products.

Tether said it expects the certification to support adoption across markets where Islamic finance is widely used, including the Gulf Cooperation Council, South Asia and parts of Africa.

XAUt is one of the largest tokenized gold products in the crypto market. Tether’s latest reserves report showed the token was backed by more than 707,000 troy ounces of physical gold worth over $3.3 billion as of March 31.

According to RWA.xyz data, the token’s onchain asset value has climbed from about $700 million in July 2025 to roughly $2.5 billion.

Tether tokenized gold. Source: RWA.xyz

Shariah-compliant crypto products gain traction

Cryptocurrencies have long divided Islamic scholars, with debates centering on whether digital assets comply with Shariah principles that prohibit excessive uncertainty, speculation and interest. As companies seek to address those concerns, Shariah-compliant digital assets have begun to emerge.

One early example came in 2025, when Bahrain-based AlAbraaj Restaurants Group adopted a Bitcoin (BTC) treasury strategy and said it planned to develop Shariah-compliant financial instruments to broaden access to Bitcoin across the Islamic world.

More recently, in April, Palm Azgar Finance expanded its Shariah-compliant PUSD stablecoin to ADI Chain, targeting the more than $3 trillion Islamic finance market. PUSD became the second stablecoin available on the network, allowing institutions to settle transactions using either a dollar-linked asset or a dirham-denominated token on the same infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Dubai has emerged as a leading crypto hub in the Middle East, continuing to expand its regulated digital asset market. Earlier this month, the emirate’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) issued its 50th virtual asset service provider license, surpassing the number of licensed crypto firms in Hong Kong and Singapore.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 07:20

Powerful Quake Rocks Southern Japan

Zero Hedge -

Powerful Quake Rocks Southern Japan

A powerful 6.8-magnitude earthquake rocked southern Japan on Tuesday afternoon, injuring dozens, sparking fires, and damaging buildings.

The Japan Meteorological Agency has since called off a tsunami alert for the coasts of the Ariake Sea and the Yatsushiro Sea. The quake struck Kyushu Island, in Kumamoto Prefecture, shortly before 4:30 p.m. local time.

NHK footage showed severe damage to the Kyushu Expressway, smoke rising from homes, and a partially collapsed wall at Kumamoto Castle.

There were no reported abnormalities at the nearby Sendai Nuclear Power Plant, Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara told reporters.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 06:55

10 Tuesday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My morning reads:

• What 125 Years of Data Really Tell Us: Behind the Balance Sheet’s deep dive into 125 years of market returns — what the data actually shows vs. what people think it shows. The survivorship bias in historical return data is larger than most investors realize. The most valuable lessons from a great investment database. (Behind the Balance Sheet)

• Big Companies Are Starting to Hire Again, Defying Predictions of AI Wipeout: The AI job apocalypse hasn’t materialized — at least not yet. Major companies are adding headcount, not cutting it. The hiring data contradicts the doom narrative. After a year of holding back on new hires, companies from tech and transportation to defense now say they need more people to work alongside AI (Wall Street Journal) see also What is really happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality. AI’s effects on overall employment is likely small, though a tough job market for new graduates may be partly due to AI. AI’s impact on worker productivity is mixed but generally positive. Firm adoption has accelerated but unevenly across the economy. Early evidence is hardly the last word on the future of work in an AI world. Stanford’s policy brief on the actual — not projected, not feared, but measured — impact of AI on employment. The reality is more nuanced and less dramatic than either side claims. (Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research)

• Compass Employees Made Their Own Report That Says Their Private Listings Sell For More: Housing Notes catches Compass producing self-serving research to justify its controversial private listing strategy. The methodology doesn’t hold up to scrutiny. (Housing Notes)

• How Meta Got Everything It Wanted in a Secret Louisiana Data Center Deal: The Times investigates a data center deal that gave Meta enormous tax breaks, cheap power, and minimal oversight — all negotiated behind closed doors. A Times examination details how the Silicon Valley giant used private talks with local officials to start a project big enough to cover nearly six square miles. (New York Times)

AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making. I strongly believe there are entire companies right now under heavy AI psychosis and it’s impossible to have rational conversations with them about it. I can’t name any specific people because they include personal friends I deeply respect, but I worry about how this plays out. (Two versions of the same argument — the rush to deploy AI in critical systems is producing worse decisions, not better ones. The hype is outrunning the capability). (Ludicity)

Inside the growing vigilante movement to knock out Flock surveillance cameras: An underground network of privacy activists is disabling or destroying the ubiquitous surveillance devices sprouting up across the US. (The Guardian)

The Bone Rush: Dinosaurs have become an asset class for billionaires. And the market is about as orderly and genteel as a starving T. rex. (Bloomberg free)

Stop Saying Kids Can’t Read: Everyone is talking about the reading crisis. But inside the “Mississippi Miracle,” it’s all about comprehension. (Wired)

Greenland shark genome reveals clues to 400-year lifespan: In 2026, scientists assembled the Greenland shark’s 5.9-billion-letter genome and examined retinas from animals more than a century old, finding intact vision, expanded DNA-repair pathways and unusual chromatin machinery inside a vertebrate believed capable of surviving for nearly four centuries. (Make Tech Easier)

• The predictable disgrace of the White House Correspondents Dinner: And why I reject every specious argument that encourages the media to keep normalizing Trump. Margaret Sullivan on why the annual celebration of press-power coziness was even worse than usual this year — and what it says about journalism’s inability to adapt to an authoritarian moment.And why I reject every specious argument that encourages the media to keep normalizing Trump (American Crisis)

Video of the day: Best ever, hilarious letters of complaint

Be sure to check out our latest Masters in Business interview with Lori Heinel, Global Chief Investment Officer of State Street Investment Management, the money management arm of investing giant State Street. She oversees over $5.7 trillion in assets (as of year-end 2025), which includes everything from index funds and ETFs to active strategies, multi-asset solutions, and alternatives. She was named to Forbes’ 2025 “50 Over 50” list.

 

The top 1% now hold as much wealth as the entire bottom 90% of Americans combined — about 32% each

Source: @SteveRattner

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Tuesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

New British Defense Secretary Says Europe "Shaken Out Of Complacency" By Trump

Zero Hedge -

New British Defense Secretary Says Europe "Shaken Out Of Complacency" By Trump

Authored by Guy Birchall via The Epoch Times,

Newly appointed British Defence Secretary Wes Streeting said on July 26 that Europe will one day thank U.S. President Donald Trump for “shaking us out of our complacency” on defense spending.

Speaking to British broadcaster Sky News, Streeting said that he genuinely believes “when this period of history is written, Europe will thank President Trump for shaking us out of our complacency and forcing us to stand on our own two feet and end the period of overreliance on the United States for defense.”

Former Health Secretary Streeting was appointed to the defense role on July 20 by the new British Prime Minister Andy Burnham after he reshuffled the Cabinet following the resignation of his predecessor Keir Starmer.

“What he’s said about Europe isn’t unique to President Trump, the MAGA movement or the Republican Party. This has been a long-standing grain of U.S. frustration with Europe under Democratic and Republican presidents,” Streeting said, adding that “in the world we live in, it is right that we can act to secure ourselves.”

Trump has repeatedly called on the UK and other European countries to spend more on ​defense and become less reliant on the United States for the continent’s security.

The push for NATO allies to do more to secure their own defenses came as the United States reoriented its defense and security priorities.

Asked if he trusts Trump, Streeting said, “I don’t know him, but I do trust the United States,” adding that in his first week in the role he has had “a unique insight into just how close and integral that relationship [between the UK and the United States] is when it comes to defense and security.”

Discussing his conversation with U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Streeting said he was “clear that we’ve not supported offensive action in Iran and we won’t support offensive action [in] Iran,” but added that there are “plenty of things that we can and should do together when it comes to securing the Strait of Hormuz.”

Streeting’s predecessor but one, John Healey, who now has the role of chancellor of the exchequer, the UK’s equivalent to treasury secretary, resigned his post last month in protest over the previous government’s reluctance to adequately fund defense spending, in a move that contributed to Starmer’s eventual downfall.

Healey announced his resignation in a highly critical public letter posted on X, in which he accused Starmer and the Treasury of being “unable” and “unwilling” to “commit the resources that the nation needs to defend the country at this time of rising threats.”

Burnham, in one of his first interviews since becoming prime minister, told the BBC he was “absolutely committed” to what was promised to NATO partners.

The UK has pledged to spend 3.5 percent of GDP on defense by 2035, in line with a new NATO target.

Burnham said that when he appointed Healey to be chancellor he was “very aware of what he had said about the critical importance of defense spending and the position that he had taken about that.”

“The first challenge facing us both is to ensure that the defense investment plan is fully funded and that’s the thing that’s right in front of us and we need to work that through as we go towards the budget later this year.”

Burnham also stated that he would be prepared to publicly disagree with Trump if British and American interests didn’t align but added that he had had a good first exchange with the president, finding him to be “really warm.”

Trump, discussing his phone call with Burnham in a July 20 post on Truth Social, said he had a “very good conversation” with the new British prime minister.

“We discussed many subjects, including the outstanding relationship we have had with the UK. We will be meeting in the not too distant future for topics of mutual interest,” Trump said, adding that Burnham “has got a big job ahead of him, but he will be able to do it and, of course, the U.S.A. will be there to help!”

He added that they discussed “North Sea Oil, Trade, the Military Alliance, Demining of the Hormuz Strait, and many other topics,” and said the call “went very well.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 06:30

Russia Says Fuel Crisis Is Easing As Refineries Restart

Zero Hedge -

Russia Says Fuel Crisis Is Easing As Refineries Restart

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

The fuel crisis in Russia has started to ease in recent days as some refineries have restarted operations, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Sunday.

“The situation is gradually stabilizing, a number of oil refineries became operational again. The balance is better now, and the situation at fuel filling stations has considerably improved, including when it comes to supplying agricultural producers,” Russian news agency Interfax quoted the official as saying.

“The situation remains quite tense in some regions, especially in some regions in Siberia. We are effectively resolving issues of fuel supply manually at the federal headquarters with regions and companies,” said Novak, who added that the crisis “situation is temporary.”

Amid peak demand season, Russia has been suffering from gasoline and diesel shortages for more than two months now, as Ukraine’s drone campaign to strike Russian refineries forced many large processing sites offline in the spring and early summer.

Early this month, Russia banned diesel exports to protect its domestic supply, creating a ripple effect on the already tight global diesel market.

Since the spring, Ukraine has been expanding its offensive to cripple supply in Russia by targeting fuel supply routes and vessels, alongside a persistent campaign to hit Russian refineries and force them out of operation.

In recent weeks, Ukrainian attacks turned their focus on targeting Russia-linked vessels in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, with more than a hundred vessels hit by drones, per the Ukrainian military.

The Russian oil export terminals on the Black Sea have also gone offline in recent days, following Ukrainian attacks.

Russia's largest Black Sea oil export terminal, Sheskharis terminal at Novorossiysk, effectively went offline last week, just days after drone attacks shut down the neighboring Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, tightening another artery that moves crude onto the global market.

The suspension of the CPC terminal loadings led to Kazakhstan cutting oil production, with output at Chevron’s giant Tengiz field reportedly falling by more than half as storage filled and producers were forced to reduce pipeline flows.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 05:00

Guess Who? First Foreign Leader Visits Burnham, UK's New Prime Minister

Zero Hedge -

Guess Who? First Foreign Leader Visits Burnham, UK's New Prime Minister

Guess who?... None other than Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has touched down in the UK for his meeting with new UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

"Volodymyr, you are the first head of state or government I have congratulated since taking office as Prime Minister. And that is no coincidence. It is intended to send a very clear message: We stand 100% with Ukraine," said Burnham.

The PM only took office last week, and Zelensky marks Burnham's very first international visitor. For Zelensky, Burnham is the fifth British prime minister since the Ukraine war started.

Naturally the first thing Burnham did on the foreign policy front was to pledge his "unwavering support" to Ukraine, "both through the war and beyond."

This is yet more affirmation of Burnham's intent to carry on with and expand on Britain's hawkish policies related to Russia and the Ukraine war which have persisted going back to Boris Johnson at the opening of the February 2022 conflict.

The UK was the earliest out the gate among Western powers to ship heavy weaponry to Kiev, and its support has only grown since.

Burnham while hosting Zelensky announced the UK is sharing the intellectual property of its "Stone Cloak" electronic jammers, which aim to interfere with Russian air defense systems, allowing drones and missiles to better penetrate Russian positions.

"Stone Cloak is the best of homegrown British innovation and proven on the frontline, and it will be vital to protecting our security in both our countries," Burnham said. According to more from the visit:

Burnham said the visit of the Ukrainian president was designed to "send a very clear message" about the UK's continued support.

"To put it simply, Volodymyr, I want you to know that we've got your back, you can count on me and you can count on us. You can count on the UK for as long as it takes," he said at a naval base in Portsmouth on Monday.

Zelensky, meanwhile, said Ukraine's relationship with the UK was "stronger than ever".

Addressing Zelensky, Burnham said: "I am personally with you 100%, Mr President, and I will honour every commitment this country has made to Ukraine in full."

Burnham added that he intended to visit Ukraine "soon" following the "very warm meeting" between the pair.

The prime minister also warned Moscow "should be in no doubt of our resolve" and that the UK would "not backdown until we achieve long lasting and just peace for Ukraine."

Zelensky was hosted for the meeting aboard the aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth docked at Portsmouth on England's south coast. After the Monday events in the UK, Zelensky is headed to Washington to meet with President Trump.

Burnham said the leaders had "talked at length" about Ukraine's need for more interceptors to shoot down inbound Russian missiles, "particularly in terms of Ukraine protecting critical national infrastructure during the winters."

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 04:15

Erdogan's Ottoman Gambit: Turkey Prepares For New Regional Order

Zero Hedge -

Erdogan's Ottoman Gambit: Turkey Prepares For New Regional Order

Authored by Chris Macintosh via InternationalMan.com,

Turkey is simultaneously dumping US Treasuries, deepening Russia’s energy embrace, rolling out a tax regime to poach capital fleeing the Gulf… and squaring off against an Israeli political class that now speaks openly of Turkey as an enemy. It’s strategic.

Turkey sold nearly all of its US Treasury holdings in March — cutting them from $16 billion to just $1.8 billion in a single month. The official narrative frames this as emergency reserve management amid a weakening lira and inflation running above 32%. But the mechanics of financial stress don’t explain the direction of travel. Nations don’t systematically dump the debt of their allies.

President Erdogan has been explicit.

In a recent address he cast Turkey as “one of the shining stars of the new era,” invoking the restoration of Ottoman-era influence across the region. Turkey vehemently opposes Israel’s operations in Gaza, and in Ankara’s strategic calculus, Washington and Tel Aviv are increasingly viewed as a single entity. The Treasury sell-off is as much a political signal as a liquidity operation. The Turkish government has smelt blood in the streets and wants to capitalise on the situation.

The energy relationship with Russia tells the same story. Rosatom’s Akkuyu nuclear plant — a build-own-operate project in which Russia retains ownership for decades — just received a further $9 billion in Russian financing, with $4–5 billion deploying in 2026 alone. Turkey has loudly advertised its renewable credentials and a 2053 net-zero target, but Akkuyu sits outside that narrative entirely. When it comes online it will supply roughly 10% of Turkey’s electricity and lock in a structural strategic dependency on Moscow that no solar panel cancels out. Turkey talks diversification; it acts with ruthless pragmatism.

The Iran conflict has handed Erdogan an unexpected opportunity on the capital side.

The disruption to Gulf Cooperation Council financial hubs — Dubai chief among them — has put mobile, internationally structured wealth back in play. Investors who relocated to the UAE for zero-tax treatment are now reassessing. Into that gap, Turkey’s parliament on recently passed Erdogan’s flagship fiscal incentive package — nine permanent structural reforms that together represent one of the most aggressive capital attraction plays of the decade:

  1. 0% income tax on foreign earnings for 20 years

  2. 1% inheritance tax on all wealth

  3. Full citizenship from $400,000

  4. 2% one-off tax to repatriate overseas assets, no questions asked

  5. 9% corporate tax — permanent

  6. 0% tax on trading through Turkey

  7. Business registration in one day via AI-assisted process

  8. Machinery and equipment imports: duty-free, 0% VAT

  9. Mortgage overhaul: 10% down payment, terms up to 25 years

The last item deserves particular attention. The mortgage reform isn’t just a financing tweak — it unlocks millions of first-time Turkish buyers who were previously priced out of the market.

That domestic demand surge lands at precisely the moment foreign capital begins flowing in under the new tax regime. Turkey’s residential real estate market was already undersupplied. The combination of newly bankable local buyers and inbound international capital chasing a low-tax domicile points to a meaningful price cycle ahead — at minimum in Istanbul and the coastal cities where foreign demand concentrates.

The architect of Istanbul’s financial hub ambitions goes back to at least 2009, when former Deputy PM Nazim Ekren was championing Atasehir as the anchor of Eurasia’s financial capital. Aran Hawker, who provided trading infrastructure to Istanbul’s exchanges in 2011, expects wealth repositioned not only from the GCC but from North America, Europe, and the UK — from people “not happy with political situations in those respective countries.” Istanbul Finance Centre transit trade income is now fully exempt from corporate tax through 2047.

The Greater Israel Shadow

Beneath the fiscal and energy calculations runs a darker strategic undercurrent — one that Ankara is acutely aware of and Western analysts largely ignore.

The expansion of Israeli strategic ambition across the region, accelerated by the Gaza operation and the broader Zionist maximalist project, now has Turkey explicitly in its crosshairs.

The Bosphorus — the narrow strait connecting the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, through which a significant share of global energy and grain trade passes — is not simply a Turkish asset. It is one of the most strategically significant chokepoints on earth. Control of it, or the ability to influence who controls it, is a prize that serious regional powers do not ignore.

Israeli political figures have begun to speak with unusual candour about Turkey as a threat rather than a competitor. Israeli Minister of Culture and Sports Miki Zohar stated plainly:

“We must begin to treat Turkey as an enemy state.”

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett went further, framing Turkey in the same breath as Iran:

“A new Turkish threat is emerging. We must act in different ways, but simultaneously against the threat from Tehran and against the hostility from Ankara.”

These are not fringe voices. When a sitting minister and a former head of government use the language of simultaneous threat management for both Iran and Turkey, they are signalling a strategic posture — one that has obvious implications for NATO cohesion, for the future of the Bosphorus as a neutral passage, and for the stability of the broader region.

Erdogan reads this clearly. The deepening of Russian energy ties, the rejection of US debt, the cultivation of Ottoman-sphere influence — these are not reactions to Gaza alone. They are pre-positioning against a regional order that Turkey now judges to be hostile to its existence as a sovereign power.

The Greater Israel project, in its maximalist form, envisions territorial and political influence stretching from the Nile to the Euphrates. Turkey sits at the northern edge of that strategic horizon. Control or destabilisation of the Bosphorus would fundamentally alter the balance of naval power in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea — a prize of the highest order for any power seeking regional hegemony. Whether or not one assigns full credibility to the maximalist reading, the signals from Israeli political leadership are sufficient for Ankara to treat the threat as real and plan accordingly.

A NATO member that sells US debt, builds Russian nuclear plants, courts capital fleeing Western disorder, and now faces explicit identification as an enemy state by Israeli leadership is not drifting. Rather, it’s repositioning on every front simultaneously.

The picture that emerges is coherent and accelerating….

Turkey controls the Bosphorus. It borders the Middle East, maintains NATO’s second-largest military, and imports the energy that geopolitical conflict makes more expensive — hence the inflation, the rate pressure, and the reserve burn. But Erdogan’s response is not to seek Western reassurance. It is to deepen the Russian energy anchor, signal alignment with the Global South’s reading of the Gaza conflict, position Istanbul as the beneficiary of Gulf instability and Western political dysfunction, and quietly fortify against a regional order that now names Turkey an adversary. The Treasury dump is one data point in a larger sequence. The Ottoman ambition is the frame. And the clock is moving faster than most investors realise.

*  *  *

Turkey’s repositioning is part of a much larger shift now reshaping the global economic and political order. In our special report, Clash of the Systems: Thoughts on Investing at a Unique Point in Time, a contrarian money manager explains the forces driving this transition, the risks they pose to your wealth and personal freedom, and how you can position yourself to stay one step ahead. Get instant access to the special report here.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 03:30

Kazakhstan Restarts CPC Oil Exports After Week-Long Black Sea Shutdown

Zero Hedge -

Kazakhstan Restarts CPC Oil Exports After Week-Long Black Sea Shutdown

Kazakhstan has resumed crude exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) on Monday after the operator reopened its Black Sea marine terminal and resumed accepting crude from producers following a week-long suspension triggered by drone attacks, Kazakhstan’s Astana Times reported. 

Two tankers were loading crude from the Chevron-led Tengizchevroil project at the Novorossiysk terminal, while producers resumed delivering oil into the CPC pipeline system, Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said according to OilPrice.com. The ministry added that export operations would continue subject to ongoing security assessments.

The reopening follows last week’s suspension of crude intake and tanker loadings at the terminal after repeated drone attacks on vessels operating at or near the facility. Kazakhstan subsequently ordered producers to curb output to prevent storage facilities from filling after access to the export system was cut off.

Industry data cited by Reuters showed Kazakhstan’s oil and gas condensate production fell to 133,200 metric tons, or about 1 million barrels per day, on Sunday, down from an average 2.16 million bpd in June.

CPC separately confirmed pipeline operations resumed at 12:28 p.m. Moscow time. The ministry did not indicate how quickly production would return to normal levels.

The 1,500-kilometer CPC pipeline transports crude from Kazakhstan’s giant Tengiz oilfield across southern Russia to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and carries more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports. International producers including Chevron and ExxonMobil rely on the route to move Tengiz production to global markets.

The Chevron-chartered Suezmax tanker Asia was also positioned at the terminal on Monday, according to LSEG vessel-tracking data cited by Reuters. Chevron said it continues to monitor the situation at CPC but declined to comment further, the company told Reuters directly. 

The disruption briefly removed more than 1 million bpd of Kazakh production from the market, adding another supply risk as global oil flows remain under pressure from disruptions affecting both the Black Sea and Middle East shipping routes.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 02:45

The 'Southern Front' Of The Ukrainian Conflict Is Heating Up

Zero Hedge -

The 'Southern Front' Of The Ukrainian Conflict Is Heating Up

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The most recent phase of the Ukrainian Conflict has been characterized by the “war of attrition” that the US has been waging against Russia through Ukraine after Trump decided to “escalate to de-escalate”.

This has thus far taken the form of drone strikes against energy infrastructure, online retailers, and maritime shipping in the Black, Azov, and now even the Caspian Seas.

It’s this last-mentioned aspect that forms the basis of the present analysis following Ukraine’s weekend strikes on targets in the Caspian.

According to Ukrainian sources, their forces struck an offshore oil extraction platform, a cargo ship and cargo vessel that were sanctioned for their alleged role in the Russian-Iranian arms trade, and a missile boat. If confirmed, then this represents the most eastward expansion yet of Ukraine’s campaign against Russia’s maritime shipping after attacking its Black Sea Fleet over the years and recently causing enough chaos to suspend shipping in the Sea of Azov, which is linked to the Caspian by the Volga-Don Canal.

Of relevance, some of the oil that Russia produces there is shipped across that canal en route to Crimea and the global market, so targeting Caspian oil extraction platforms and suspending shipping in the Sea of Azov are part of a larger strategy. The plan appears to be to slash the Kremlin’s revenue, cause domestic fuel shortages with a view towards provoking political unrest, and exacerbate the attempted drone-enforced “blockade” of Crimea. This broad “southern front” is therefore very significant.

Casual observers from the West might thus be under the impression that the Ukrainian Conflict’s overall dynamics have shifted in Kiev’s favor as a result of the above-mentioned developments, but they’d do well to know that Russia has drastically ramped up its strikes against Ukraine’s Black Sea infrastructure.

This recently resulted in Ukraine suspending shipping across that naval corridor for the first time since 2023 in the most important achievement thus far of Russia’s new “systematic strike” campaign.

While Odessa remains out of Moscow’s reach, and there was never any attempt to capture it since the special operation began, the recent attacks against its infrastructure are clearly meant to demilitarize it (at least for now). After all, it’s from Odessa that Ukraine launches its naval drones against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, and it’s also where Ukraine receives some of its maritime arms imports. It’s therefore arguably long overdue for Russia to take its port out of operation as well as all of Ukraine’s other Black Sea ones.

The radical intensification of the southern front could lead to one of three outcomes:

  1. the situation continues to worsen;

  2. a partial ceasefire is reached for ending attacks against ships and maritime infrastructure (though it’s unclear whether it would apply to Crimea);

  3. or NATO gets involved.

As regards the last-mentioned, it’s the least likely but still can’t be ruled out after Turkiye committed to providing maritime security guarantees for Ukraine, which could hypothetically take the form of “escort missions”.

The larger trend is that US-backed Ukraine’s newfound focus on targeting Russia’s “soft underbelly” in this new “war of attrition” has resulted in its own “soft underbelly” being targeted as well as a form of (arguably long-overdue) reciprocal retaliation that’s making the broader Black Sea region a “no-go zone”.

The heightened stakes associated with this latest phase of the conflict suggest that an even greater escalation might be inevitable, but it’s still possible that this could be delayed, if not outright averted.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 02:00

How Total Surveillance Conquered The Last Sanctuary Of Human Privacy

Zero Hedge -

How Total Surveillance Conquered The Last Sanctuary Of Human Privacy

Authored by Milan Adams via Preppgroup,

The following investigation contains verified facts, classified document references, and eyewitness testimony that some readers may find deeply disturbing. We have cross-referenced all statistical claims with official government disclosures, Freedom of Information Act releases, and whistleblower documentation. However, certain programs referenced operate under classifications beyond public scrutiny, and specific capabilities described remain officially denied by the agencies named. The author has chosen to present this material without the sanitizing filter of institutional caution. Reader discretion is advised—not for graphic content, but for the psychological impact of recognizing one’s own position within the architecture described. What follows is not conspiracy theory. It is Tuesday. It is your morning commute. It is the air you breathe.

Your bedroom has been listening for years. Not metaphorically—quite literally. While you slept, while you loved, while you whispered secrets to partners in the dark, the devices you invited inside for “convenience” were recording, analyzing, transmitting. That smart speaker on your nightstand heard you breathe. Your WiFi router mapped your movements through walls. The phone charging beside your pillow tracked your REM cycles, your midnight tossing, your 3 AM anxieties. All of it flowed through fiber optic veins into climate-controlled bunkers where analysts sift through domestic lives like archaeologists studying extinct species—except you’re very much alive, still walking, still paying monthly subscriptions for the privilege of being monitored.

This is the unvarnished reality of existence in 2026: privacy didn’t merely erode—it was systematically dismantled, commodified, and fed into machine learning systems that predict your behavior before you conceive the thought.

Eight billion souls now exist beneath an invisible dome of perpetual observation, each breath monitored, each heartbeat catalogued, each flicker of dissent intercepted before consciousness fully forms it.

Let’s examine the architecture of this prison with clear eyes:

  •  4.9 million CCTV cameras surveil the United Kingdom alone - one mechanical eye for every eleven humans

  •  300+ times the average Londoner is captured on camera during a routine commute

  •  160 million license plate reads logged annually in the United States, creating travel histories precise enough to reconstruct infidelity, political meetings, religious observance, medical visits

  •  0 - the number of ways to effectively opt out

Numbness serves the system.

These figures are designed to anaesthetize, to render horror mundane through sheer scale. So consider instead the texture of living under permanent scrutiny.

Morning breaks pre-monitored. Smart mattresses—marketed innocuously for “sleep optimization”—have already transmitted heart rate variability, respiratory patterns, sexual activity frequency, and parasympathetic nervous system indicators to cloud servers before your feet touch the floor. Bathroom scales identify you by weight distribution patterns as unique as genetic codes. Toothbrushes log duration and technique. Coffee makers timestamp your caffeine consumption. Refrigerators track caloric intake and dietary restrictions. Each data point seems trivial in isolation. Combined, they construct behavioral predictions accurate enough to anticipate your mood, your destination, your risk level before you’ve consciously decided to leave the house.

By 8:47 AM, probability calculations assess your psychological state. Predictive models anticipate where you’ll travel. Risk scores fluctuate based on deviations from your statistical norms—sleeping longer suggesting depression markers, skipping breakfast indicating financial stress, checking news before social media revealing political engagement levels.

Step outside and the grid tightens. Modern vehicles contain fifty to one hundred microprocessors, three hundred-plus sensors, and mandatory cellular connectivity that transforms automobiles into mobile surveillance platforms. Event Data Recorders capture speed, braking force, seatbelt usage, steering angle, and G-forces thirty seconds preceding any “incident”—though incident remains deliberately undefined, and data retrieval requires neither warrant nor notification in most jurisdictions. Drive through a toll booth, pass a traffic camera, park in a monitored lot, and you’ve added coordinates to a permanent travel log reconstructing your movements across years.

Public transit offers no refuge. Facial recognition payment systems in Moscow, Shenzhen, and expanding “democratic” pilot programs process biometric identities faster than card swipes, logging timestamps and travel patterns into permanent archives. London’s Oyster cards create movement histories retrievable by law enforcement without judicial oversight. WiFi tracking in subway stations identifies phones despite WiFi appearing “disabled”—devices emit probe requests every forty to one hundred milliseconds, broadcasting unique MAC addresses that create location trails accurate to meters.

Arrive at work and enter the observation laboratory. Keycard entry logs timestamps and precise locations. Computer systems record keystroke dynamics—typing rhythms as identifying as handwritten signatures. Corporate networks proxy all traffic through monitoring systems capturing URL visits, message content, download activity, duration metrics. Video analytics perform gait analysis, identifying individuals by walking patterns even when faces remain obscured. Elevator weight sensors combined with camera footage determine occupancy and identity.

Lunch breaks generate surveillance gold. Mobile payment apps—Venmo, Cash App, Apple Pay—create financial surveillance networks exceeding any tax authority’s historical capabilities, documenting transactions, social networks, relationship intimacy levels. Location data harvested from apps with “background refresh” capabilities reveals restaurant choices, duration of stays, table companions, subsequent destinations. Pharmacy visits trigger health condition flags. Political rally attendance generates risk score adjustments.

Return home to observation posts you installed voluntarily. Smart doorbells—Ring, Nest, Arlo—record four hundred million video clips monthly, creating neighborhood surveillance networks accessible to 2,014 police departments through “partnership” agreements requiring neither warrant nor homeowner consent. Amazon’s Neighbors app encourages residents to flag “suspicious” individuals—often coded language for racial profiling—feeding machine learning systems training data on human suspicion patterns.

Domestic spaces have transformed into comprehensive sensor networks. Smart speakers record ambient audio during “wake word” activation, with documented cases of accidental activation and human contractor review of private conversations including intimate moments and medical discussions. Smart thermostats track occupancy patterns, energy usage revealing daily schedules. Smart locks record entry and exit patterns shared with “authorized partners” including law enforcement. Smart appliances monitor usage patterns and “anomalous behavior.”

Television watches back. Samsung, LG, and Vizio models collect viewing habits, search queries, voice commands, and in documented cases transmit screenshots of displayed content every second. Streaming services build psychological profiles from consumption patterns—depression indicators from binge-watching metrics, political orientation from documentary selections, cognitive patterns from pause and rewind behaviors.

Even sleep provides no darkness. Trackers monitor REM cycles, apnea episodes, restlessness. Smart home systems adjust temperatures based on detected occupancy. Security systems log movement patterns. And in classified facilities processing daily harvests, quantum computers decrypt yesterday’s “secure” communications, correlate metadata patterns, construct association maps linking you to contacts of contacts, predict behaviors not yet conceived.

The smartphone remains surveillance engineering’s crowning achievement. Sixty-three percent of humanity carries tracking beacons exceeding anything totalitarian regimes of previous centuries imagined. GPS provides location within three meters. Accelerometers reveal physical activity, health status, emotional state through movement patterns. Gyroscopes map spatial orientation. Barometers calculate altitude changes identifying building floors. Microphones activate remotely without indicator lights—Snowden’s disclosures confirmed this capability. Cameras prove similarly accessible. Bluetooth scans identify nearby devices creating social network maps. WiFi mapping enables indoor positioning accurate to one to two meters.

Apps transform these sensors into comprehensive surveillance tools. Weather apps sell location permissions to data brokers. Flashlight apps access cameras and microphones as documented malware vectors. Social media harvests contact lists, message content, photo metadata. Navigation apps log every destination, route, duration, speed. Dating apps reveal intimate preferences, location patterns, communication content. Fitness apps transmit health data to insurance providers and employers. Banking apps create financial surveillance networks. Every “free” service monetizes behavioral prediction.

Encryption offers theater, not protection. PRISM and upstream collection programs—XKEYSCORE, TEMPORA, MUSCULAR—operate at infrastructure levels tapping fiber optic cables, compelling corporate cooperation through National Security Letters (gag-ordered demands preventing disclosure), and storing encrypted communications for future decryption when quantum computing renders current standards obsolete. Utah’s NSA Data Center processes yottabytes—storage capacity so vast it could contain all human communication for millennia.

“Incidental collection”—the euphemism for capturing domestic communications during foreign surveillance—creates permanent records subject to “minimization procedures” requiring neither deletion nor notification. FBI “backdoor searches” of Section 702 collection data numbered 3.4 million queries in 2021 alone—warrantless searches of content collected without warrant.

Stingray devices—cell site simulators deployed by law enforcement nationwide—mimic cellular towers forcing all phones within range to connect and reveal International Mobile Subscriber Identity numbers, location data, communication metadata. Baltimore police admitted using Stingrays 4,300 times without warrants. The FBI requires agencies signing nondisclosure agreements before receiving devices—secrecy prioritized over constitutional protections.

Predictive policing algorithms—PredPol, HunchLab—claim to forecast crime locations. In practice, feedback loops emerge: policing data from over-policed neighborhoods trains algorithms predicting crime in those same neighborhoods, justifying continued over-policing. Risk assessment scores determine bail, sentencing, parole—algorithmic calculations of “dangerousness” based on demographic correlations rather than individual behavior, encoding systemic bias into mathematical objectivity.

Social media operates as voluntary confession on industrial scale. Facebook’s 2012 “emotional contagion” experiment manipulated 689,003 users’ news feeds to study mood alteration. Twitter creates influence maps identifying “disruptors.” Instagram’s image recognition catalogs objects, locations, relationships. TikTok’s data collection—including keystroke patterns and clipboard content—raises national security concerns while demonstrating surveillance capitalism’s global reach.

The “Internet of Things” completes domestic colonization. Smart mattresses, toilets, mirrors, windows—all feeding data streams into centralized processing. DNA testing services—23andMe, AncestryDNA, GEDmatch—have provided law enforcement access to genetic profiles of millions who never consented to law enforcement use. Familial searching creates genetic surveillance networks implicating entire family lines. China’s compulsory DNA collection from Uyghur populations represents ethnic surveillance at the genomic level.

Financial surveillance operates through Suspicious Activity Reports requiring banks to report transactions exceeding $10,000 and increasingly patterns below thresholds. The Bank Secrecy Act and PATRIOT Act created financial tracking infrastructure monitoring every significant transaction. Cryptocurrency exchanges now require identity verification linking blockchain to real identities. The “war on cash” promotes digital payments creating comprehensive spending records.

Biometric databases expand relentlessly. India’s Aadhaar contains 1.3 billion citizens’ fingerprints, iris scans, facial photographs. China’s national biometric database integrates facial recognition, DNA, voiceprints, gait analysis. The FBI’s Next Generation Identification contains 117 million fingerprints, 52 million facial images.

Historical “conspiracy theories” proved insufficiently paranoid. Documents confirm: MKULTRA’s mind control experiments (1953-1973) involving unwitting subjects. COINTELPRO’s surveillance and disruption of political organizations (1956-1971). Operation CHAOS’s CIA monitoring of domestic anti-war activists. The FBI’s blackmail of Martin Luther King Jr. The NSA’s LOVEINT—analysts using surveillance to stalk romantic interests.

Neuroweapons research explores “remote influencing”—microwave auditory effects (the “Frey effect”), electromagnetic field manipulation, directed energy systems. Whether deployed or merely researched, such capabilities blur boundaries between physical and psychological warfare.

Corporate-state fusion creates totalitarian infrastructure without totalitarian intent. Data brokers—Acxiom, Experian, LexisNexis, Palantir—compile thousands of data points per individual, selling comprehensive profiles to government agencies, employers, insurers, political campaigns.

Opting out proves functionally impossible. Living without identification excludes participation in financial systems, housing, employment, healthcare. “Dumb” phones still connect to cellular networks providing location tracking. Cash transactions face increasing restrictions.

Psychological impacts manifest regardless of awareness. Self-censorship becomes automatic when surveillance is assumed. Creativity requires risk, experimentation, deviation—precisely behaviors flagged by predictive algorithms. Intimacy requires privacy; privacy requires confidence in unobserved space.

Legal protections lag technology by decades. The Third Party Doctrine holds that information conveyed to third parties receives no Fourth Amendment protection. Geofence warrants request location data for all devices in specified areas. Keyword warrants identify users who searched specific terms.

International frameworks offer no protection. The Five Eyes alliance shares intelligence while circumventing domestic restrictions. The 14 Eyes expands this network. Bilateral agreements create global surveillance networks.

Resistance strategies—encryption, anonymity networks, secure systems, Faraday cages, cash, offline communication—provide partial mitigation but fail against comprehensive surveillance. Metadata defeats content encryption. Device compromise defeats endpoint security.

Trajectory points toward total integration: central bank digital currencies enabling complete transaction monitoring; biometric ID requirements for internet access; AI-powered pre-crime prediction; social credit scoring integrating financial, social, political metrics; brain-computer interfaces creating direct neural monitoring.

What remains? Perhaps only recognition that surveillance stalking represents not aberration but essence—the logical culmination of technologies enabling observation, bureaucracies requiring information, power’s eternal expansion. Horror lies not in the watching but in the watched trading privacy for convenience, security, connection, entertainment. The panopticon’s genius was never the tower’s visibility but prisoners’ internalization of surveillance.

Somewhere in data centers humming with cooling fans and quantum processors, your profile grows more detailed, your predictions more precise, your autonomy more illusory. The cage was built while you slept. You woke inside it. You may never leave.

AND NOW… YOU ARE MARKED. PERMANENTLY.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 23:25

Awkward: Trump Hails 'Tremendous' Ally Turkey, Knocks Israel Before Hosting Netanyahu

Zero Hedge -

Awkward: Trump Hails 'Tremendous' Ally Turkey, Knocks Israel Before Hosting Netanyahu

Less than 24 hours before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet with the US President at the White House Tuesday, and Trump not-so-subtly put the Israeli leader in his place while fielding questions from reporters aboard Air Force One.

Trump was asked about Netanyahu's very public and long-stated opposition to Washington selling F-35s to Turkey. Trump responded by firmly stating, "Nobody tells me what we should be selling or not. Turkey has been a tremendous ally."

He added in the remarks, "Turkey’s not a big fan of Israel, not a great fan of Bibi. But they’ve been great for me." He also repeatedly praised Turkey as a great ally of the United States.

It comes after Trump strongly hinted while at the annual NATO summit in Ankara earlier this month that he would approve the F-35 sale, though it would likely invite serious Congressional pushback.

This is not going to be a welcome development for Netanyahu, especially given that with the full context of the comments, Trump was highly praising Turkey while seeming to put down Israel:

"And frankly, we're being very nice to a lot of countries that would not survive without us. You know who wouldn't survive without us? Israel...

...Turkey has been a great ally, for me. Nobody tells me what we should be selling. Turkey is not a big fan of Israel, you know that, right? And not a big fan of Bibi."

Interestingly in the same thought he admitted Turkey is a bitter enemy of Israel, but still chose to praise Turkey while quipping that Israel wouldn't be able to stand on its own without support from Washington.

Trump did say that the US and Israel align on Iran policy, mostly at least. "We have a little difference but [are] pretty close," Trump told reporters.

On the Iranians, Trump said: "They want to meet, and we’re meeting. There’s a chance we can make a deal. But without what we did, they wouldn’t even be talking to us." Of course, it's long been known that the Israelis are not in favor of talks, given the possibility it could end without the total dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program.

"Bibi is coming here, he'll tell ya..."

Trump had earlier this month after a July 4th call with Netanyahu said of 'Bibi': "We get along very good. [Netanyahu] knows who the boss is," he told Axios. All the while, Turkey's Erdogan has been locked in a war of words and steadily ratcheting exchange of threats with Israeli officials. That Trump should so openly embrace Turkey and Erdogan has been felt as a slap in the face for Israeli leadership.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 23:00

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