"Gone In 60 Seconds": Feds Uncover DC-Area International Car Theft Ring

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

Federal authorities in the Washington area have uncovered an alleged international vehicle theft ring involving six people suspected of stealing cars and shipping them to Africa, where they are sold for top dollar.

Six people were charged on April 22 in connection with their roles in the alleged scheme.

A 15-count federal indictment was unsealed in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, charging the defendants with conspiracy to steal at least 20 vehicles in the Washington metropolitan area and Pennsylvania.

The cars are transported over state lines and sold to buyers in the United States and the African nation of Ghana, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Washington.

The indictment follows a year-long investigation into an alleged auto-theft ring in the District of Columbia area that involved vehicles stolen using electronic devices that allowed thieves to reprogram cars to accept blank key fobs, prosecutors said.

“They don’t need keys, and they don’t need hot wiring—no smashed windows, no drama—just a sleek electronic device called an ‘Autel’ and under a minute the car’s brain is rewritten,” U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro said during a press conference on April 22.

“The car is gone in 60 seconds.”

An Autel device can be used to erase a vehicle’s records and reprogram its keys. Law enforcement is continuing to investigate the case, Pirro said.

The auto theft ring could involve more than 100 vehicles in the District of Columbia and more than 30 vehicles in Prince George’s County, Maryland.

Police officers working on the case executed a search warrant on April 21 at an automobile storage facility in Decatur, Georgia, locating several of the missing vehicles, prosecutors said.

The suspects are Jacob Hernandez, 29, of Los Angeles; Dustin Wetzel, 23, of Woodbridge, Virginia; James Young, 23, of Hyattsville, Maryland; Khobe David, 24, of Upper Marlboro, Maryland; and Chance Clark, 25, of Waldorf, Maryland.

Another defendant remains at large and is considered a fugitive. Prosecutors did not release the name of that defendant, whose indictment remained sealed.

According to the indictment, the stolen vehicles—mostly newer Honda Civics and CRVs, and Acura TLXs and RDXs—were first taken to be “cooled off” in storage locations in southeast Washington. Theeves allegedly disguised the cars by swapping license plates and obscuring the vehicle identification numbers (VINs), according to prosecutors.

Before shipping the stolen cars, the conspirators allegedly disabled the GPS and Bluetooth systems to deter detection.

A car transporter in Maryland was loaded with several of the recovered vehicles from an alleged international auto-theft ring that federal authorities say was connected to six people in the Washington metropolitan area. U.S. DOJ

“This isn’t joyriding,” Pirro said. “These are high-end vehicles loaded on transport carriers headed to ports in Savannah [Georgia] and Baltimore, Maryland.”

The stolen cars were then loaded onto shipping containers labeled as furniture to avoid more scrutiny and sent to Africa, where they were able to get “top dollar,” Pirro said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 15:20

Beyond Cookies - How To Stop The Invisible Browser Fingerprint That Tracks You Everywhere

For years, the privacy advice was simple: clear your cookies, use incognito mode, or click "Reject All" on those annoying consent banners. That advice is now outdated.

A groundbreaking study published last year has delivered the first peer-reviewed proof that the $600 billion online advertising industry has moved on from cookies. The new tracking method is called browser fingerprinting, and it works even if you never log in, never accept cookies, and have legally opted out under privacy laws.

Researchers from Texas A&M University and Johns Hopkins University built a tool named FPTrace to measure exactly how this works in the wild. They simulated real user sessions, systematically altered browser fingerprints, and watched what happened to the ads being served and the bids advertisers placed in real time. The results were clear: when the fingerprint changed, the price advertisers were willing to pay to target that "user" changed with it. Tracking signals dropped. The system was actively using the fingerprint to follow people across sessions and sites.

And crucially, this happened even in tests where cookies were fully deleted and users were in "opt-out" mode under GDPR and CCPA rules. The law’s exit door for cookies does not cover fingerprinting.

How Browser Fingerprinting Works (No Permission Required)

Every time your browser loads a page, it leaks dozens of tiny, seemingly harmless signals:

• Screen resolution and color depth
• Installed fonts
• GPU model and graphics capabilities
• Audio processing signatures
• Browser version, plugins, and language settings
• Time zone
• Canvas rendering differences (how it draws hidden shapes)
• Whether you run an ad blocker
• Even battery level in some cases

Alone, each detail is common. Combined, they create a unique "fingerprint" that can identify your device with startling precision. No cookies. No login. No pop-up asking for consent. Just loading the page is enough.

Studies have long shown how pervasive this is. Princeton’s Web Transparency Project and related research have repeatedly found fingerprinting scripts running on a significant share of popular websites.

Princeton researchers tested the top 10,000 websites.

Fingerprinting scripts on 88% of them.

The EFF tested browsers directly.
83% had a fingerprint unique enough to track with no cookies at all.

You do not have to visit a shady site.
You just have to open a browser.

— AI Highlight (@AIHighlight) April 21, 2026

The Electronic Frontier Foundation’s long-running Cover Your Tracks test (formerly Panopticlick) has demonstrated that a large majority of browsers produce fingerprints unique enough to track users without any cookies at all—historically around 83% or higher in large samples.

Why This Matters Now

Cookies are dying. Google has been phasing out third-party cookies in Chrome, and Apple has aggressively blocked them in Safari for years. Advertisers needed a replacement that users cannot easily clear, block, or reset. Browser fingerprinting is that replacement: it is invisible, persistent, and rebuilds itself if your setup changes slightly.

The result? Targeted ads that follow you across devices and sessions, even when you think you’ve gone "private." And because it operates below the surface of most privacy laws, the protections many people rely on simply don’t apply.

What Actually Works to Protect Yourself

Most people get privacy wrong by making their setup more unique (rare browsers + 30 extensions = the most identifiable fingerprint on the internet). True anonymity comes from uniformity, not obscurity.

Here are the proven defenses, ranked by effectiveness:

1. Choose the right browser (the single biggest decision)

• Tor Browser – The gold standard. It forces every user to share the exact same fingerprint. Anonymity through uniformity.
• Brave – Excellent middle ground for everyday use. It randomizes canvas, WebGL, audio, and other fingerprintable surfaces every session.
• Firefox (with strict settings) – Strong out of the box and highly customizable. Avoid Chrome for privacy-sensitive activity; it offers no native fingerprint resistance.

2. Add the right extensions (Firefox or Brave only)

• uBlock Origin – Blocks fingerprinting scripts before they can run. (Note: Chrome’s Manifest V3 severely limited the full version; Firefox is required for maximum protection.)
• CanvasBlocker – Randomizes your canvas output whenever a site tries to read it.

3. Flip one powerful Firefox setting Type about:config in the address bar → search for privacy.resistFingerprinting → set it to true. This standardizes canvas, timezone, fonts, and other outputs so you blend in with everyone else. Takes 30 seconds and makes a measurable difference.

Bottom line: Clearing cookies no longer protects you. The advertising industry has quietly built a more resilient tracking system that operates in the shadows of your browser. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 15:00

39 Going On 40 (Trillion)

Authored by Robert Aro via The Mises Institute,

A little over two weeks ago, on April 7th, the U.S. national debt crossed $39 trillion. Since then, another $150 billion has already been added to the ledger. While major news outlets missed the milestone, every trillion is worthy of mention.

House Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) put the figure in perspective:

America is now $39,000,000,000,000 in debt—yes, $39 trillion. It took roughly 200 years to accumulate the first $1 trillion. Now we add that in a matter of months… Compounding the problem, we now spend more than $1 trillion a year just on interest to service our debt—more than the entire defense budget.

Almost three years ago, I wrote about the U.S. debt crossing the $32 trillion and $33 trillion marks. If there’s one economic projection to stand by, it’s this: within the next several months, the $40 trillion debt level will be breached.

Looking back at the last 200 years, or even the last three, it becomes clear that debt growth is not linear; the curve is moving up exponentially.

While the future is always uncertain, the trajectory is unmistakable.

One reason stands above the rest: the interest on the debt itself.

For context, net interest outlays were equivalent to 22.1% of total revenues through Q1 of FY 2026. Even if the national debt were frozen at $39 trillion today, the interest payments alone would be staggering. With the 10-year Treasury yield hovering between 4% and 4.5% at the time of writing, and annual interest surpassing $1 trillion, solvency should be a real concern.

Naturally, one might argue that with a Federal Reserve, solvency is not a concern. However, that’s the crux of the matter. America technically won’t become insolvent thanks to the Fed’s ability to create money (literally) out of thin air, and so, the final outcome is certain. Expanding debt and the accompanying expansion of the money supply are features of the system. History shows that monetary inflation, currency debasement, and the eventual crack-up boom are the recurring final outcomes.

Couple the interest problem with global conflict and the endless crisis response cycle of political outlays, and it’s fair to say that Congress has as much appetite for cutting spending as they do for ending the Federal Reserve

39 going on $40 trillion is an achievement only in the sense that many once thought we’d never see numbers this large. Over forty years ago, during the Reagan administration, the debt tripled from $1 trillion to $3 trillion, and life went on. Applying that same logic today and accounting for exponential growth, we are talking about $40 trillion becoming $120 trillion in our lifetime.

The idea of $50 trillion, $60 trillion, or even $80 trillion seems absurd, but history gives us no reason to assume a ceiling exists.

I still wouldn’t bet against America; the U.S. dollar persists largely because liberty and freedom still mean something in the USA, and the greenback remains the cleanest shirt in the dirty pile. But that doesn’t change the fact that life could be better for almost everyone. That is everyone except those who continue to steer society down a path Austrians have warned about for generations.

The debt clock keeps ticking. The numbers keep rising. And while life will go on, we must ask: what kind of life will it be? And for whom?

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 14:40

MSFT Plans First Voluntary Buyout In 51-Year History; Gates Foundation To Slash 20% Of Staff Summary: 

• First CNBC reports MSFT's first-ever Voluntary Buyout in 51-Year Company History,

• Then a report by BBG on Meta planning 10% Workforce Cut, All Within Hours

• To note: Reuters First reported Meta's 10% cut late last week (report)  

Meta Layoffs 

First, Microsoft unveiled a voluntary buyout program, a move that could incentivize thousands of employees to leave.

Now, Meta Platforms has reportedly followed with plans to cut 10% of its workforce. Taken together, today's back-to-back announcements suggest that as Big Tech continues to spend aggressively on AI infrastructure and data center buildouts, management teams are trimming excess fat to reallocate capital toward the AI race.

Bloomberg reports that Meta plans to reduce its workforce by 10%, or roughly 8,000 employees, and leave 6,000 open roles unfilled. The layoffs are expected to occur on May 20.

Meta had nearly 79,000 employees at the end of last year, according to Bloomberg data.

The outlet cited an internal memo written by Janelle Gale, chief people officer, in which she said, "We're doing this as part of our continued effort to run the company more efficiently and to allow us to offset other investments we're making."

Meta shares are flat on the year but in-line in seasonal trends. 

"I know this is unwelcome news, and confirming it puts everyone in an uneasy state, but we feel this is the best path forward, given the circumstances," Gale wrote.

Reuters first reported last week that Meta planned to cut 10% of its workforce (read here). 

MSFT Plans First Voluntary Buyout In 51-Year History; Gates Foundation To Slash 20% Of Staff

Until early April, Microsoft shares were on track for their worst start to a year in Bloomberg data going back to 1997.

Then, in late March, The Information reported that the tech giant had imposed a hiring freeze across parts of its cloud and sales divisions.

Now, in yet another sign of belt-tightening, Microsoft is preparing its first voluntary employee buyout program in the company's 51-year history.

CNBC cites a new internal memo detailing a one-time retirement program for senior director-level employees and below whose combined years of employment and age total 70 or more.

While CNBC notes that voluntary buyouts are expected to involve a "small percentage of its workforce," a separate Bloomberg report states that the new voluntary retirement program could affect about 7% of its U.S. workforce.

Microsoft's latest annual report says it had about 126,000 employees in the U.S. The voluntary retirement program could allow the tech giant to cut upward of 9,000 employees. It reported 228,000 employees worldwide in 2025.

The adjustments to its workforce come as the hyperscaler is spending massive amounts of capital on data centers during the AI boom and heavy data-center spending cycle.

At the same time, Microsoft is changing how it rewards employees by separating stock awards from cash bonuses, giving managers more flexibility to reward top performers. It is also simplifying manager review choices, reducing compensation options from nine to five.

"Our hope is that this program gives those eligible the choice to take that next step on their own terms, with generous company support," Amy Coleman, Microsoft's executive vice president and chief people officer, wrote in a memo.

Separately but still related, The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this week that the Gates Foundation is slashing up to 500 jobs, or about 20% of its staff, as the left-wing NGO has come under fire for funding questionable protests and for Gates' ties to Epstein.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 14:20

Yet Another Dead NASA Scientist: Nuclear Propulsion Expert Was Found Charred Inside Crashed Tesla

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The case of yet another top NASA nuclear engineer turning up dead in a fiery crash has hit the headlines, adding to the dark and mysterious pattern of experts tied to advanced propulsion and space secrets apparently being targeted.

Joshua LeBlanc, 29, a team lead on NASA’s most cutting-edge nuclear thermal propulsion projects, was found charred beyond recognition inside his burned Tesla after vanishing from his Huntsville, Alabama home. His family immediately feared abduction. He left his phone and wallet behind—an act they called completely uncharacteristic.

Tesla Sentry Mode data later showed the vehicle sat motionless at Huntsville International Airport for four hours the morning of July 22, 2025. The car was discovered that afternoon after colliding with a guardrail, slamming into trees, and erupting in flames. Authorities confirmed his identity days later through forensic examination.

A NASA nuclear scientist was found deceased in his Tesla after colliding with a guardrail, leaving his body so burned that he was completely unrecognizable, according to a new report from Fox News.

29-year-old Joshua LeBlanc, who worked on nuclear propulsion projects, died in a… https://t.co/C793en0aeU pic.twitter.com/8YIhgG7fE3

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) April 22, 2026

LeBlanc had worked at NASA for over five years, first as team lead for the Space Nuclear Propulsion (SNP) Instrumentation and Control Maturation project, then leading NASA’s Demonstration Rocket for Agile Cislunar Operation (DRACO)—a nuclear thermal propulsion engine designed to slash travel times to Mars and beyond.

His family told local outlets the trip west was never part of his plans for the day, and he had been in regular contact right up until he vanished. “They feared he had been abducted,” reports confirmed.

NASA nuclear engineer found dead in burned Tesla after vanishing from his Alabama home last year https://t.co/gmqYCtfcvS pic.twitter.com/cQxPNevggj

— New York Post (@nypost) April 23, 2026

This case fits squarely into the disturbing wave of deaths and disappearances among scientists working on nuclear, propulsion, and space technologies—now totaling at least thirteen cases since 2022. LeBlanc’s death comes as President Trump has repeatedly signaled his intent to rip open the government’s UFO files.

The Huntsville airport connection is particularly intriguing. LeBlanc’s Tesla lingered there for hours before the fatal crash—just miles from NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, a hub for exactly the kind of classified nuclear propulsion work he led.

As we highlighted yesterday, NASA payload specialist James “Tony” Moffatt and his entire family, also from Huntsville, Alabama, were killed last week in a plane crash.

This mirrors patterns highlighted in our earlier reporting on the scientist death mystery now explicitly linked to NASA.

The FBI has now confirmed it is spearheading a probe with the Departments of Energy and Defense into potential connections among the missing and deceased scientists. Trump himself addressed the issue last week: “I hope it’s random, but we’re going to know in the next week and a half. I just left a meeting on that subject.”

Independent researcher Jesse Michaels has laid out the broader pattern in stark terms just days before LeBlanc’s case resurfaced publicly. In his April 21 episode, Michaels documented how scientists at the frontier of fusion, exotic propulsion, advanced metallurgy, and space surveillance are being silenced.

He highlighted the February 2026 disappearance of retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Neil McCasland—former commander of the Air Force Research Laboratory at Wright-Patterson AFB, the alleged repository of Roswell materials—who vanished from his Albuquerque home eight days after Trump ordered the Pentagon to begin releasing UFO files. McCasland left his phone, glasses, and smartwatch behind. Despite massive searches, no trace.

Michaels connected this to the June 2025 disappearance of NASA material scientist Monica Reza, co-inventor of a breakthrough nickel-based superalloy for next-gen rocket engines developed under the very lab McCasland once oversaw. She vanished mid-hike, 30 feet behind her group.

He also detailed the December 2025 assassination of MIT fusion physicist Nuno Loureiro—shot in his own doorway—and the February 2026 murder of Caltech astronomer Carl Grillmair, who was working on the powerful Vera Rubin Observatory capable of spotting anomalous objects in Earth orbit.

Clearly these aren’t random tragedies. The expertise clusters around technologies that could upend energy cartels and expose long-hidden propulsion breakthroughs—exactly the kind of work LeBlanc was advancing at NASA.

The pattern is no longer deniable. While authorities insist there is “no evidence” of coordination, the sheer concentration of losses in these hyper-specific fields—nuclear propulsion, plasma physics, advanced materials—defies coincidence. Tesla’s own data in LeBlanc’s case raises further questions about remote access possibilities in modern vehicles, a capability long acknowledged in intelligence circles.

President Trump’s America First push for transparency on UAPs and government records is clearly rattling cages. These experts held the keys to technologies that could secure American dominance in space and energy independence. Their sudden, suspicious exits just as disclosure momentum builds scream for full, public investigation—not another quiet federal handwave.

Many believe that Trump’s commitment to releasing the files is the only path forward to protect innovation, expose the gatekeepers, and reclaim technological sovereignty for a free republic. Anything less leaves the best minds in America vulnerable to the very forces working against national strength.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 14:00

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei Surrounded By 24/7 Medical Team In Hideout As Generals Run Iran: NYT

The NY Times in a new deep dive of what governing structures now look like inside Iran says what's already long been obvious to many in the wake of longtime Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death: "When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled Iran as the supreme leader, he exerted absolute power over all decisions about war, peace and negotiations with the United States. His son and successor does not play the same role."

The publication says it was able to interview at least half-a-dozen Iranian insiders, including IRGC officials, and individuals who know the younger Khamenei "well". The NY Times describes of Mojtaba Khamenei: "His father, wife and son were all killed. Access to him is extremely difficult and limited now. He is surrounded mostly by a team of doctors and medical staff who are treating the injuries he sustained in the airstrikes."

ISNA/AFP/Getty Images

Apparently even top 'trusted' generals and IRGC commanders do visit him for fear of being surveilled and tracked to his location by Israel and the United States.

Per the sources cited in the Times, "Though Mr. Khamenei was gravely wounded, he is mentally sharp and engaged, according to four senior Iranian officials familiar with his health."

And more: "One leg was operated on three times, and he is awaiting a prosthetic. He had surgery on one hand and is slowly regaining function. His face and lips have been burned severely, making it difficult for him to speak, the officials said, adding that, eventually, he will need plastic surgery."

All of this provides an explanation as to why he has never been seen or heard from in public since Trump's Operation Epic Fury began on February 28. He has not so much as been photographed, and when state media has issued a few prior statements, it does so via text or what appears to be AI-configured audio over state media airwaves.

This fact has unleashed an avalanche of speculation as to his fate over the course of the war, and who is "really in charge". And yet it's also well-known that Iran is able to function militarily based on autonomy and dispersion of command among units, with the IRGC given more independence to act.

The White House has alleged there are essentially two factions vying for power and direction over the war - the civilian leadership and the IRGC command sides. 

"Mojtaba is not yet in full command or control," Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa for Chatham House, claimed in the NYT report. But as expected the situation is nuanced: "There is, perhaps, deference to him," he continued. "He signs off or he is part of the decision-making structure in a formal way. But he is presented with fait accompli presentations right now."

As we and other have pointed out, in public at least the de facto day-to-day leader of the country remains speaker of the Iranian Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. He has taken point as lead negotiator with the United States in Pakistan, and has been the public face of updating his country and the world on both the status of the war and the now stalled negotiations.

One other interesting detail in the Times report is seen in the following:

Messages to him are handwritten, sealed in envelopes and relayed via a human chain from one trusted courier to the next, who travel on highways and back roads, in cars and on motorcycles until they reach his hide-out. His guidance on issues snakes back the same way.

Some pundits have correctly pointed out that skepticism is warranted, also given the NYT's often deeply inaccurate reporting on Bush's Iraq war invasion, and other Mideast conflict zones including Syria:

With all due respect, remain skeptical about the credibility of the The New York Times report.

- If leaks of this magnitude were truly that easy, it would have been just as easy for Mossad to obtain precise information on Mojtaba Khamenei’s whereabouts, with obvious… https://t.co/g36ONAQUpd

— Babak Vahdad (@BabakVahdad) April 23, 2026

The NY Times alleged findings has it to the conclusion that even big decisions are currently under control of the generals and IRGC apparatus: "The combination of concern for his safety, his injuries and the sheer challenge of reaching him has resulted in Mr. Khamenei's delegating decision making to the generals, at least for now," the report concludes.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 13:40

Republicans Open New Front In Growing Battle Against "Climate Lawfare"

Republicans in Congress are taking action to shield U.S. energy producers from “Climate lawfare,” the relentless barrage of frivolous lawsuits orchestrated by radical environmental activists.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) introduced S.4340, a bill that would bar frivolous lawsuits from green activist groups seeking damages, injunctions, or other relief for harms allegedly caused by the end use of energy products. Senators Ted Budd (R- NC), Tom Cotton (R-AR), and Mike Lee (R-UT) are cosponsoring the legislation. The House companion bill, H.R. 8330, was introduced yesterday by Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-WY). The bill would also void any energy penalty law and preempts any states’ attempts to regulate interstate and global emissions.

RELEASE: Sens. Cruz, Cotton, Budd, Lee Introduce Bill to Combat Climate Lawfare and Defend American Energy https://t.co/XN4KgDIhE4 pic.twitter.com/Q3jWNb7J7m

— Senator Ted Cruz (@SenTedCruz) April 20, 2026

“Radical environmental groups have waged a coordinated campaign to weaponize our judicial system against American energy producers, including many in Texas,” Cruz said in a statement. “They’re using meritless lawsuits to bankrupt our energy industry, kill good paying jobs, and drive up the cost of electricity and gasoline for hardworking families. I am proud to lead this bill to stop that abuse to protect American jobs, lower energy costs, and defend American energy dominance.”

“Energy security is national security, and we will not self-sabotage our critical industries with a cascade of costly lawsuits and extreme penalties that jeopardize American drilling. America’s energy producers should be protected from the dangerous legal precedent that would be set by the retroactive punishment of lawful activity,” Hageman said.

The bill has already won applause by energy groups aligned with President Donald Trump’s pro-growth agenda.

“Green left activists have always gone to extraordinary lengths to impose their anti-energy agenda on Americans. Filing sweeping lawsuits against oil and gas companies in an attempt to force policy outcomes they have failed to achieve in the legislative and administrative arenas is some of their most egregious work yet,” American Energy Alliance president Tom Pyle said. "This kind of politically motivated litigation threatens not only energy stability, security, and affordability but also the integrity of our legal system.”

The legislation arrives as California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont have taken landmark legal action aimed at holding fossil fuel companies accountable for misrepresenting to the public about their products’ role in climate change.

On Friday, the Supreme Court delivered a unanimous procedural victory for sanity, ruling that certain environmental damage lawsuits, including one against Chevron for alleged destruction of coastal wetlands in Louisiana, can be removed from hostile state courts to more neutral federal forums.

“Chevron’s case fits comfortably within the ordinary meaning of a suit ‘relating to’ the performance of federal duties,” said Justice Clarence Thomas. “Chevron has plausibly alleged a close relationship between its challenged conduct and the performance of its federal duties —not a tenuous, remote, or peripheral one.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 13:00

RFK Jr. Tells Senate Glyphosate Causes Cancer

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told senators on April 21 that glyphosate, a key ingredient in herbicides like Roundup, causes cancer and that human consumption of the chemical should be minimized.

His comments came amid growing political and legal controversy over the chemical, which is widely used in agriculture. During a Senate Budget Committee hearing, Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) asked Kennedy whether the chemical caused cancer.

Without hesitation, Kennedy replied, “Yes.” Schatz also asked if the chemical was safe for human use.

“I mean, safe, or does it kill weeds? It kills weeds,” Kennedy said. “I would say it’s important to minimize consumption of glyphosate as much as possible.”

Schatz told Kennedy he was being “uncharacteristically diplomatic about glyphosate,” which Kennedy, a standard-bearer for the Make America Healthy Again movement, denied.

Kennedy helped secure a $289 million award from Monsanto in 2018 while representing a client who alleged Roundup caused him to develop non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Now, Kennedy is the leading health official for an administration that is defending Monsanto in a Supreme Court case set for oral argument just days after the health secretary’s testimony.

That case, known as Monsanto v. Durnell, similarly involves a man alleging that Monsanto’s Roundup caused him to develop non-Hodgkins lymphoma. The Justice Department didn’t argue as much on glyphosate’s alleged health hazards as it did that the lower-court verdict against Monsanto was legally flawed.

President Donald Trump addressed the issue in February, signing an executive order that said glyphosate-based herbicides were critical to the nation’s economy and national security.

“Any major restrictions in access to glyphosate-based herbicides would result in economic losses for growers and make it untenable for them to meet growing food and feed demands,” his order reads.

“Ensuring an adequate supply of elemental phosphorus and glyphosate-based herbicides is thus crucial to the national security and defense, including food-supply security, which is essential to protecting the health and safety of Americans.”

Schatz told Kennedy he had many friends in Hawaii who supported the health secretary, but they were shocked when Kennedy put out a February statement in support of Trump’s executive order on glyphosate, which would also give immunity to manufacturers if Congress were to pass it into law.

“Pesticides and herbicides are toxic by design,” Kennedy wrote in a post on X. “Unfortunately, our agricultural system depends heavily on these chemicals.”

The executive order, and Kennedy’s reaction, led to pushback among Make America Healthy Again, or MAHA, supporters, who denounced Trump’s characterization of glyphosate as critical to national security.

“I was very clear with the president about my own displeasure with the executive order,” Kennedy told Schatz. “The president felt it was necessary for national security reasons.”

The health secretary said the idea for the executive order came from the Pentagon, and the administration regards the issue as one that Trump inherited—not created.

The overwhelming majority of American agriculture relies on glyphosate-based herbicides, and “100 percent of that is coming from China,” Kennedy said.

“You have an adversary that could literally shut down the American food supply overnight,” he testified. “[Trump’s] executive order does not increase the use of glyphosate. All it says is, as long as we’re dependent on it, we’re going to make it here.”

In Kennedy’s X post, he stated that cross-agency steps are being taken to shift away from harmful agricultural practices. The health secretary reaffirmed this goal to lawmakers at the April 21 hearing.

Monsanto has denied Roundup causes cancer and has argued no cancer warning is necessary because the Environmental Protection Agency has historically considered Roundup and glyphosate safe to use.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 12:40

Twitter Users Statistics – Key Data for 2026 Twitter Marketing

 

 

For the past 30 years, I have been sharing my ideas on investing, markets, the economy, policy, and related topics. Online, in public, no hold barred; writing for a broad audience invites comments, criticism, and general interaction.

So it was no surprise that when Twitter came along, I jumped in (Thanks, Howard!). It was an amazing technology that gave you access to awesome people you otherwise would not have met; it enabled cool interactions with readers. It became a community of like-minded individuals across a variety of topics. For me, this included everything from markets and investing, economic analysis, and behavioral finance to cosmology and collectible cars. Before Chart Kid Matt, many of the most-liked charts seen on The Big Picture were originally found on Twitter.

I hadn’t noticed the slow bleed on the site until I was hacked in July 2023. Someone took control of the account until Bloomberg helped me get it back 3 months later. The site had changed so radically that I didn’t recognize it.1 My partner Josh, always ahead of the curve, saw the writing on the wall and tapped out in 2020.

Trying to scale and monetize the site only led to a change for the worse; new ownership accelerated the collapse. Today, there is very little engagement, too many bots, and endless trolls;2  constant fake versions of myself and impersonations3 of my colleagues have revealed how little the site cares about the security and safety of its users.4  What could have been a global town square morphed into something far more insidious. 5

And so it is with a heavy heart that I belatedly say farewell to X.

I’ll still allow the blog to auto-post; I’ll lurk on my favorite lists, and occasionally retweet others. But that’s it. You can find me here and on LinkedIn.

 

 

 

 

 

__________

1. Recently, a number of my favorite follows have headed for the exits. (FEE was just the latest).

2. Social media fraud channels contributed to 56% of all crypto scam cases in 2025, led by Telegram, X, and Instagram; AI-generated deepfake scams rose roughly 700%; fake endorsements impersonating Musk accounted for 32% of social media scam attempts. CoinLaw Silent Push documented a May 2025 campaign exploiting an X display-URL spoofing loophole to promote a fake “Apple iToken” with an ad that appeared to originate from CNN.com Silent Push — the kind of infrastructure-level exploit that suggests the ad-review layer isn’t catching obvious impersonation. For the financial-commentary side of the platform, the most visible pattern is the stock-pick scam chain: a low-follower bot posts a reply with replies disabled, tags a “financial expert” account using a stock photo and a generic handle ending in a number, and that account pushes penny-stock picks Medium — you’ve almost certainly seen these under your own posts. (via Claude)

3. New ownership made everything worse: Paid verification inverted the old signal: a blue check now correlates positively, not negatively, with scam risk, and the algorithmic boost for paying accounts means scam replies surface above legitimate ones. (via Claude)

4. AI has lowered the cost of producing convincing content and increased variability across a botnet, making pattern-based takedowns harder, while “reply-and-block” tactics let bots register engagement and then suppress the original poster’s ranking. (via Claude)

5. It’ll be interesting to see the Harvard Business School case study of how to light $38 billion on fire.

 

 

The post Farewell, Twitter appeared first on The Big Picture.

Goldman: Fast Food's 'Bang For The Buck' Gains As Casual Dining Appeal Craters

Goldman analyst Christine Cho has published her latest quarterly survey of 2,000 consumers for 1Q26, pointing to a softer restaurant environment. Muted demand backdrop suggests that the K-shaped economy continues to fester, with working-poor consumers still facing the greatest downward pressure.

Respondents expect their visits to limited-service restaurants (LSRs), restaurants where customers generally order and pay at a counter, kiosk, drive-thru, or app, such as McDonald's, Burger King, Wendy's, Chipotle, CAVA, Sweetgreen, Panera, and others, to hold steady for the next three months, while casual dining still has some room for visit growth, though at a slower pace than in prior quarters. 

The respondents under most pressure to spend on food away from home were among lower-income households, with roughly half of consumers earning under $70,000 saying they plan to dine out less.

Another key takeaway is the growing divide in perceptions of value. Fast food's "bang for the buck" has improved since 3Q25, while casual dining's value perception has deteriorated to the lowest level in Goldman's dataset.

Cho attributes the improvement in fast food partly to value menus, meal deals, and marketing tie-ins, which are boosting scores for value, quality, and willingness to pay more.

"Consumers still see grocery as better value," Cho noted.

Intention to spend was flat. 

GS Brand Scores — Major fast food brands showing sequential improvement with stepped-up value focus

Exhibit 11: Summary of GS Restaurant Survey Scores - % change vs. 3Q25 Summary

Exhibit 12: Summary of GS Restaurant Survey Scores - YoY % change Summary

Cho then covered which restaurant stocks looked the strongest or weakest in the survey:

Stock callouts. QSR was a standout in the monthly dashboard, showing trends consistent with higher brand scores vs. 3Q25 for Burger King (+6.5%), Popeyes (+3.6%), and Tim Hortons (+1.7%) in our survey. DRI remains a casual dining outlier as accelerating NPS trends align with positive transaction growth and an increase in Olive Garden brand score vs. 3Q25. MCD and YUM are successfully pivoting toward value-led growth, contrasting deterioration in conversion and quality scores at SG and BLMN.

The S&P 500 Restaurants Sub-Industry Index has largely traded sideways since early 2025. 

Our takeaway is that fast food's aggressive marketing of meal deals and other value offerings has clearly resonated with budget-conscious consumers amid K-shaped economy woes. 

Professional subscribers can read "Deep-dive into 1Q26 restaurant survey" at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 12:20

Andurand's "Hedge" Fund Lost 52% In First Two Weeks Of April On Levered Oil Bets

Three weeks ago, when Bloomberg pointed out that Andurand was the best performing hedge fund in March thanks to its notorious levered long oil positioning (and really nothing else), we said they may want to refresh his exposure after the April 7 oil crash.

May want to F5 on Andurand after today's near record oil crash https://t.co/tlkgz3dXJa

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 8, 2026

Three weeks later, they did: according to a report published this morning, Pierre Andurand’s largest "hedge fund" (and when it comes to Andurand, the word "hedging" is a catastrophic misnomer), plunged about 52% in the first half of April, wiping out all of its first quarter gains and then some made on bullish oil bets at the start of the Iran war. 

His fund slumped this month through April 17 and is now down almost 37% for the year despite oil being substantially higher YTD. It comes after the Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced fund delivered a 31% gain in March even as other hedge funds were caught off guard by the huge swings in commodities prices and inflation expectations unleashed by the war. Perhaps in the parallel universe inhabited by the ultra liberal trader, oil can somehow magically rise to infinity without demand destruction. Well... no.

Andurand trying to lever up his oil bets to 100x.

The fund - which is basically a 5x levered bet on oil, and which refuses to ever consider the possibility its manager is wrong - has no set risk limits and regularly delivers both double digit gains and losses... though in fairness it has been more losses than gains. 

Oil prices posted a record monthly rally in March, driving the firm’s gains, as war between the US and Iran throttled exports from the Persian Gulf and triggered the most severe supply disruption in history. Brent futures, an international benchmark, climbed to almost $120 a barrel on March 9. Yet instead of taking profits on the way down, Andurand appears to have doubled and tripled down. And that's how he wiped out more than half of his fund's AUM in 2 weeks.

It begs the question: which foolish prime broker generously gave Andurand the insane leverage to lose such a staggering amount of money in just two weeks?

Unlike Andurand, the Iranian chaos has been lucrative for oil trading houses that buy and sell physical cargoes of crude, driving outsize profits at firms including Vitol Group, Trafigura Group and Gunvor Group.

For Andurand, the setback in March was a reminder of how volatile commodity markets can be. The fund lost about 40% last year after making a 50% gain the previous year. Yet with the 37% drop in 2026, it is pretty clear that not a single investor in Andurand's hedge fund is even remotely close to ever breaking even on their catastrophic investment. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 12:15

Kalshi Bans 3 US Politicians For Betting On Their Own Election Races

Authored by Stephen Katte via CoinTelegraph.com,

Two US congressional candidates and one sitting lawmaker have received fines and bans from Kalshi after they were found betting on the outcomes of their election races, as prediction market platforms crack down on insider trading.

Matt Klein, a sitting member of the Minnesota State Senate, was fined $539 for betting on his primary race in his bid for the US House of Representatives, which is set to take place in August. Ezekiel Enriquez, who ran for a US House seat in March, received a $784 penalty, according to Kalshi's notice of settlement.

Another case involved Mark Moran, a candidate in Virginia's US Senate race, who received a $6,229 penalty and was ordered to return any profits from his trades after allegedly refusing to cooperate with Kalshi to resolve the issue. All three were banned from the platform for five years.

Prediction markets, which let users trade contracts on the outcomes of future events, have faced growing scrutiny over insider trading and possible violations of gambling laws. Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest platforms, have pledged to introduce stricter controls and crack down on unlawful activity.

Lawmakers offer reasons for insider trades

Moran said in a statement on X that he placed his wager to test Kalshi's procedures and see how the platform would respond to insider trading.

“YES, I did bet ~$100 on myself on Kalshi because I wanted to get caught,” he said, adding that he “wanted to see (1) if Kalshi would come after me and (2) what their path would be.”

Source: Mark Moran

Klein said in a statement that he placed the wager out of curiosity about how prediction markets worked, but later learned it violated platform rules.

“In compliance with their request, I paid a penalty and agreed to be suspended from the platform. That was the only wager I have ever made on a predictions market,” he added.

Klein is a co-sponsor of a bill in the Minnesota Legislature that aims to ban wagers on the outcomes of real-world events such as elections or policy decisions.

Cointelegraph was unable to reach Ezekiel Enriquez for comment.

Kalshi’s ongoing insider trading crackdown

Bobby DeNault, Kalshi's head of enforcement, said Tuesday these cases violated Kalshi's exchange rules but didn't warrant referral to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission or the Department of Justice for further investigation and prosecution.

“Regardless of the size of a trade, political candidates who can influence a market based on whether they stay in or out of a race violate our rules. No matter how small the size of the trade, any trade that is found to have violated our exchange rules will be punished,” he added.

The platform issued a $2,000 fine and a five-year ban in February to a former California gubernatorial contender for betting on his own candidacy last year.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 12:00

Air Force Advances Microreactor Deployments at Three Bases

The Department of the Air Force (DAF) has moved forward with its Advanced Nuclear Power for Installations (ANPI) initiative, announcing specific company pairings to develop microreactors at three installations. 

Radiant Industries will partner with Buckley Space Force Base in Colorado. Radiant is developing Kaleidos, a portable 1 MW helium gas-cooled microreactor using TRISO fuel. Factory-built and transportable by truck or aircraft, the unit requires no on-site water, relying instead on air cooling with fans and passive natural convection. It targets military installations among other resilient power needs. Radiant plans its first demonstration at Idaho National Laboratory's DOME test bed, with criticality planned before July 4th.

Westinghouse will deploy at Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana. Westinghouse brings decades of nuclear expertise and its eVinci microreactor. This heat-pipe cooled design produces about 5 MW, offering eight-plus years of fuel life with minimal maintenance. Fully factory-assembled and transportable in shipping containers, the unit operates without water cooling and supports remote or edge-of-grid applications while pairing well with renewables.

Antares Nuclear will build at Joint Base San Antonio in Texas. Antares is focused on its R1 microreactor, a sodium heat-pipe cooled system delivering 100 kWe to 1 MWe with over six years between refueling. The modular design emphasizes reliability for defense-critical assets and incorporates high-temperature heat pipes and automated controls. We recently covered Antares and their first of a kind approval from the DOE for their Mark-0 test reactor at Idaho National Lab. 

ANPI’s goal is operating at least one advanced nuclear reactor on a DAF installation by 2030 or sooner.

We reported on the ANPI program's launch and the Defense Innovation Unit's selection of eight companies in April 2025, part of a larger Pentagon push for resilient, emissions-free power at military sites. The effort aligns with the Army's related Janus program targeting operational microreactors by 2028. 

The initiative remains separate from the standalone microreactor pilot at Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska. With next steps now underway, the DAF is positioning itself to deliver reliable power where it matters most.
 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 11:40

Tether Freezes $344 Million USDT Stablecoins Flagged For Illicit Activity

Tether froze more than $344 million in USDT across two Tron addresses on Thursday, in coordination with the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), marking one of the stablecoin issuer's largest compliance actions on record.

While Tether did not name the network of the frozen funds, blockchain security firm PeckShield identified the blacklisted addresses as TNiq9...QZH81 and TTiDL...pjSr9, holding approximately $213 million and $131 million respectively.

The action comes weeks after the $285 million Drift Protocol exploit; an incident that put the entire stablecoin industry under public scrutiny and drove hard questions about issuer’s crisis responses. Tether addressed the incident by proposing a $127.5 million recovery contribution. 

“USDT is not a safe haven for illicit activity,” said Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, in a statement. “When credible links to sanctioned entities or criminal networks are identified, we act immediately and decisively. Recent events have shown what happens when platforms fail to move quickly, enforcement breaks down, users are exposed, and trust erodes.”

“Our approach is different,” he continued. “We combine blockchain transparency with real-time monitoring and direct coordination with law enforcement to stop funds before they can move. That’s a responsibility we take seriously as one of the largest issuers in the market.”

As Decrypt notes, the freeze underscores Tether's expanding compliance infrastructure, which now encompasses partnerships with more than 340 law enforcement agencies across 65 countries. The stablecoin issuer said it has supported over 2,300 cases globally and frozen more than $4.4 billion in assets overall—including $2.1 billion tied specifically to U.S. authorities.

Thursday's action follows a pattern of large-scale Tether freezes coordinated with US authorities. In November 2023, the company froze about $225 million in USDT linked to a Southeast Asia human-trafficking and pig butchering scam investigation. In January 2026, Tether froze roughly $182 million across five Tron wallets in another action.

To date Tether has supported more than 2,000 cases globally, including over 1,050 tied to U.S. law enforcement, and has led to the freezing of more than $4 billion in assets, including over $1.9 billion connected to U.S. authorities. This latest action adds to a series of high-profile enforcement efforts in which Tether has supported U.S. and international authorities in tracing, freezing, and seizing funds tied to fraud, terrorism financing, and sanctions evasion.

These freezes typically involve the Office of Foreign Assets Control, the U.S. Treasury Department agency that administers and enforces economic and trade sanctions. The increasing frequency and scale of such actions reflect both the growing use of stablecoins in illicit finance and Tether's efforts to maintain regulatory compliance.

Tether’s latest action follows a pair of high-profile crypto project hacks that have been linked by investigators to North Korean hackers: the $285 million Drift Protocol attack, and $292 million Kelp DAO exploit. Tether's biggest competitor, USDC stablecoin issuer Circle, faced criticism following the Drift Protocol hack for not taking action to freeze funds linked to the attack. The firm defended its inaction, saying that it can only freeze funds when identified by law enforcement or required through court orders.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 11:35

Minecraft, Warcraft, Statecraft

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

While mediators are pushing to get Iran and the US back into negotiations on Friday, the US still says it wants to see unified response from Iran which hands over its enriched uranium. But what will change between now and Friday? Two things, perhaps, and both pointing towards an expected escalation before any deal.

• First, Axios quotes US officials that there is an unofficial 3-5 day window for Iran to get the correct unified proposal together before bombing restarts; the Israelis report Sunday is the real deadline.
• Second, despite the ‘ceasefire’, there is lots of firing and no cessation in blockading in Hormuz and further afield. Within the Strait, Iran fired on ships and outright seized two, while there are suspicions it used speedboats to mine the key waterway more extensively. Outside Hormuz, CENTCOM denied reports that its blockade is leaking and intercepted three Iranian oil tankers near India, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka, as US Senator Graham warned the Iran oil blockade “could become global soon.” Against that backdrop, the US Navy Secretary is leaving his post and Navy Undersecretary Hung Cao, a notably MAGA figure, will for now replace him.

In the broader Middle East, the US is now using Ukrainian counter-drone tech and support teams, underlining how rapidly things can change when tech and war get together. Certainties, production methods, and tactics and strategies can all flip faster than those at the top of large organisations realise. 

Lebanon is said to be seeking a one-month truce extension of its current ceasefire with Israel as Hezbollah again targeted IDF troops with drones, drawing fire back, with casualties. The US embassy in Beirut is urging its citizens to leave the country amid security risks.

The US has suspended dollar shipments to Iraq and frozen security cooperation programs with its military to try to force Baghdad to act against Iranian militias active in the country. On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Bessent claims several Gulf and Asian allies, not just the UAE, have requested dollar swap lines. That’s further extends the list of potential recipients outside the cloistered ‘economic policy era’ circle of the UK, Europe, and Japan, etc., as part of a new US ‘economic statecraft era’ aimed at anchoring the global role of the US dollar on US, not global, terms. Indeed, while FX markets still look at EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY as benchmarks, they are arguably far less important in the emerging physical economy of a new world order based on resources, industrial production, and AI.

Finally, a Trump envoy is seeking to replace Iran with Italy in the looming 2026 FIFA World Cup, which isn’t likely to shift Tehran from its strategy of playing for extra time and winning on penalties.

The ‘Minecraft’ story above is crucial to note. The marine drones now being employed are relatively untested compared to older minesweeping techniques, but estimates using previous benchmarks run from weeks to months to clear Hormuz, depending on how many mines are present. That could add to an energy normalization timeline which already risks seeping into Q4. (See our latest analysis from Joe Delaura and Florence Schmit here, but note that it says in red, bold font: “Futures markets are still materially under-pricing the real supply risk facing both crude oil and natural gas.”)

The Iran war is also driving up Panama Canal lane prices to a record high of up to five times the pre-war level, mainly as Asian LNG importers bid for access. 

Indeed, showing warcraft doesn’t only appear in the energy (then food) components of CPI, the World of Warcraft online platform just increased its UK 12-month subscription rate by 7%, its Georgian by 19.1%, its Kazakh by 37.5%, and made Turkish subscribers pay in euro. At the same time, the US monthly rate for an annual contract has remained unchanged at $12.99 since 2004. Ironically, that captures the Great Game being played out globally better than the market analysts uncomfortably talking about wars do.

EU-Turkey relations have separately nosedived following impolitic comments just before an EU summit today in… Cyprus. Its key itinerary covers plans for the energy crisis, “defensive autonomy”, and strategic links between Europe, the Middle East, and India. 

• Brussels reportedly has a plan for what it now (correctly) calls the “world’s biggest energy crisis”, but the focus is apparently on “coordination”: in doing what? 
• Cyprus wants an EU collective defense plan after being attacked by an Iranian drone. That’s defence autonomy; but it would imply the bloc getting dragged into a war it insists is not its. Then again, what use is collective defence if there is a ‘Yes, but not this war’ opt-out? 
• Re: strategic links, the key plan is the IMEC corridor linking India to Europe via the Middle East (as Saudi Arabia talks of building a railway to Europe through Syria and Turkey). However, that involves not just ending the Iran war but defeating Tehran, which has blocked IMEC. Europe’s stand-off approach therefore gives it no voice on the emerging geopolitical architecture.   

In terms of that defense autonomy, Trump is reportedly considering a tiered system for NATO to reward allies who rearm and are willing to fight, and punish those who don’t and won’t (and won’t allow the US to use the bases they have built on their territory). It might imply a shift of US forces, and focus, from west to east Europe, and perhaps from Spain to Morocco.

The USTR is also pushing allies to pay more for critical minerals to decouple from China’s monopoly, which, as long argued, will also require tariffs and subsidies. Obviously, that’s inflationary. Yet the only alternative is accepting Chinese dominance in the sector. Reportedly, many US allies seem to prefer that option… which points to a US trade split with those allies.

Meanwhile, the US is reportedly demanding concessions from Canada before USMCA trade talks start as a form of “entry fee.” These include opening dairy markets beyond USMCA commitments, eliminating the digital services tax that affects US tech giants, and accepting expanded US border enforcement jurisdiction on Canadian soil. Such US demands reduce the negotiation from one of equals to a realpolitik reflecting the economic weight each has, as well as treading on direct issues of sovereignty. Indeed, one wonders if/when the US will raise the issue of a common external tariff for the USMCA, de facto set by the US, which seems the logical economic statecraft move. For Canadians, this is all shocking and unprecedented. 

Yet the same realpolitik and sovereignty dynamics were evident in UK–EU negotiations during Brexit and are again now as the UK flirts with a European realignment. Canada can reject these US demands or even risk walking away from the USMCA. As with the UK, it would then have to work out where it fits in globally instead. Ottawa is already looking for alternative options for the 75% of its goods that go to deeply integrated US supply chains. However, while the world likes its raw materials (if the infrastructure to deliver them can be built), industrial goods providing good jobs in Canada may prove a trickier question. Notably, US auto tariffs are already threatening the kind of downturn which that key Canadian industry last saw post-GFC. In short, the outcome of this US economic statecraft exercise remains unclear – but the potential economic impact is not.

Minecraft; Warcraft; Statecraft. You’ll notice I couldn’t craft any “rate cuts?” in either. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 10:40

UBS Warns Drought Shock Unfolding Across Breadbasket Of America

It's not just us sounding the alarm about severe drought conditions hitting America's breadbasket as spring plantings ramp up, or warning about the second- and third-order effects that could push food prices higher later this year.

UBS analysts, led by Jonathan Pingle, told clients on Thursday morning that drought conditions across the US agricultural belt rank among the worst in more than 130 years:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Palmer Drought Severity Index hit its highest level for March since records started in 1895, and March was the third driest month recorded, regardless of time of year, behind only the famed 1930s Dust Bowl": July and August 1934. Water levels on the Mississippi look fine, the seasonal lows are typically in the fall, but river levels in Memphis sit 24 feet below this time last year.

The primary effect of drought conditions on farmland is a direct hit to production: reduced soil moisture, weaker germination, lower yields, poorer crop quality, reduced pasture and forage, and greater stress on the nation's cattle herd (already seen with soaring beef prices).

USDA says drought can slash planted or harvested acreage, reduce livestock productivity, and raise feed and irrigation costs; it can also reduce crop yields and quality, with some perennial crops taking years to recover.

Then the third-order effects emerge: lower farm output and higher production costs (diesel and fertilizer), which can be transmitted through food supply chains into higher retail food prices, tighter supplies for processors, and pressure on food security.

Pingle continued: 

Drought severity sees much of the country; April very warm The USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Report highlights the unusual warmth during the April employment report survey reference period, which should be on net supportive of the data this month, and potentially postpone pull forward from March until May or June. The pay period including the 12th of the month is the payroll survey point and the week including the 12th of the month is the survey reference for the household survey, where the unemployment rate is estimated. In figure 4 below we show the deviation from normal temperature, and the populated east saw very warm weather highs in Concordia, KS (91°F), and Lincoln, NE (90°F). Warmth covered much of the Midwest on April 14, when daily-record highs soared to 88°F in Des Moines, IA, and Cape Girardeau, MO. By mid-week, some of the earliest 90-degree heat on record affected the middle Atlantic States. With a high of 90°F on April 15, Georgetown, DE, set a record for its earliest-ever high of 90°F or greater (previously, 94°F on April 17, 2002). Wilmington, DE (90°F on April 15), experienced its second-earliest 90-degree reading, behind only April 10, 2013. Similarly, Atlantic City, NJ (90°F on April 15) tied 1967 for its second-earliest 90-degree temperature, behind April 7, 2010," said the report.

"However, extremely dry conditions persisted Plains, with cascading impacts on rangeland, pastures, and winter wheat. Notably, jointing wheat in eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and southwestern Nebraska that has been greatly stressed by persistent dryness and periods of record-setting warmth experienced another setback at week's end, when hard freezes occurred. Drought also continued to worsen in much of the South, particularly across the southern Atlantic States," said the report.

Worth watching, the drought could lead to supply pressure and price pressure from the agricultural sector, on top of other pressures of concern at the moment. Last week, the USDA wrote in the Weekly Weather and Crop Report "Most immediately, portions of the South had little moisture for pastures, winter grains, and the germination and establishment of spring-sown crops. Despite patchy precipitation on the Plains, a significant portion of the winter wheat crop continued to exhibit drought stress, with the crop heading ahead of schedule as far north as Oklahoma. By April 12, roughly one-half of the winter wheat was rated in very poor to poor condition in Texas (54 percent), Oklahoma (48 percent), Nebraska (47 percent), and Colorado (44 percent)."

Our reporting:

• Drought Engulfs 60% Of U.S. As Farmers Begin Spring Planting

• Wheat Spread Blows Out As Drought Chaos Plagues America's Breadbasket

Chart of the day:

Let's not forget that with fertilizer and diesel prices elevated, this only suggests the FAO Global Food Index is set to move higher later this year.

Pingle warned, "All eyes have been focused on the Middle East but another supply shock may be unfolding in US agricultural production."

Professional subscribers can read the full UBS drought note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 10:20

US Business Confidence Soared In April Amid "Panic, Emergency" Buying Ahead Of Price Spike

Despite the recent slide in 'hard' macro data, analysts expected an incremental improvement in the preliminary April S&P Global PMI data this morning.

Consensus was right as both Services and Manufacturing surveys signaled an uptick in April

US business activity growth recovered slightly in April having slowed to near-stagnation in March following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. However, the overall pace of expansion remained subdued, most notably in the services economy where demand faltered.

• Flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 51.3 (March: 49.8). 2-month high.

• Flash US Manufacturing PMI: 54.0 (March: 52.3). 47-month high.

Source: Bloomberg

“A rebound in business output growth in April is good news after the near-stagnation seen in March," but, warns Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

"...over the past three months we have seen the weakest expansion of output recorded since the start of 2024 with the war in the Middle East squarely to blame."

The April PMI is broadly consistent with the economy struggling to manage annualized growth in excess of 1%, with the vast service sector acting as the principal drag.

"Orders for services ranging from travel and tourism to financial products barely rose as the war caused hesitancy for spending among both household and business customers, with surging prices and the prospect of higher borrowing costs acting as a further deterrent."

There was better news from manufacturing:

"here an expansion of output and orders could be partly traced to the building of safety stocks, with survey respondents reporting “panic” and “emergency” buying ahead of price hikes and supply shortages in echoes of the problems seen during the pandemic.

While there is no prices paid (nor other subcomponents) released in the flash PMI, the market is looking for signs of inflation and margin pressures in the press release.

Prices paid have already picked up in the March ISM, although less so far in the PMI surveys.

And, as Williamson notes, not surprisingly, prices are already spiking higher in this environment, and not just for energy but for a wide variety of goods and services.

"The overall inflation picture is now the most worrying for almost four years."

Balancing the risks of inflation lifting sharply higher against the underlying weakness of economic growth presents policymakers at the Fed with a growing dilemma.

However, as Williamson concludes, it will likely be increasingly hard to make a case for rate cuts if inflation follows the path signalled by the PMI while the economy continues to eke out only modest growth.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 09:53

Tanker Seizures By Iran Don't Breach Ceasefire: White House

Not only did President Trump this week unilaterally extend the Iran ceasefire by at least three to five days (upon initial announcement), but he has refrained from ordering new attacks against the Islamic Republic even as the IRGC navy continued intercepting foreign tankers.

By Tuesday, he had extended the ceasefire indefinitely, writing on Truth Social: "Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal."

Iranian state media

On Wednesday, Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) had targeted two cargo vessels - the MSC Francesca and the Epaminondas, a Greek-owned ship, and forced them to Iran's coast, effectively seizing them.

Iran's interceptions of 'unauthorized' vessels as it tries to maintain its side of the blockade has not abated, but has only intensified, and yet there's no bombs away from the US or Israel.

This has left pundits wondering why the act of brazen tanker seizures by Iran does not constitute a ceasefire violation in Washington's eyes. Both the US President and his Press Secretary have responded and explained:

President Trump told Fox News on Wednesday that there was "no time pressure" on holding a new round of talks or on the cease-fire, and "no timeline" for ending the war. Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, told Fox separately that Mr. Trump did not view Iran’s reported ship seizures as a violation of the cease-fire.

The reported seizures happened after the U.S. Navy prevented dozens of ships from leaving or accessing Iranian ports as part of a blockade ordered by Mr. Trump.

"These were not US or Israeli ships, these were two international vessels," Leavitt had sought to clarify in her comments to Fox News, explaining that the naval blockade the US has imposed "continues to be incredibly effective."

Despite that on the US side of the blockade - which aims to halt any vessel going in or out that visited or plans to visit Iranian ports (or which is under sanctions) - it remains that shipping companies are mostly keeping vessels away from the strait due to the lingering immense risk. Thus far, at least a couple dozen of acceptable and US 'approved' ships have made it out based on CENTCOM permission

.@PressSec: "Iran has gone from having the most lethal navy in the Middle East to now acting like a bunch of pirates. They don’t have control over the Strait—this is piracy that we are seeing on display, and the naval blockade that the United States has imposed continues to be… pic.twitter.com/yCnQGfIe2c

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 22, 2026

All of this also comes after Wednesday reports that Iran had fired on a third ship, after already interdicting at least two, amid threats to continue to keep up the pressure and inflict pain on the global economy.

Some pundits have highlighted that it is the White House side that keeps backing off its threats to bomb Iran, while moving the goalposts of what constitutes a breach of the ceasefire. Perhaps US officials are increasingly aware they are on the brink of entering an intractable quagmire, but perhaps it's already too late.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 09:40

Pot Stocks Soar As DoJ Reclassifies Medical Marijuana As Less Dangerous Drug

Pot stocks are moving higher in premarket trading in New York after the Justice Department and DEA announced that FDA-approved marijuana-based drugs and state-licensed medical marijuana products will be moved immediately from Schedule I to Schedule III. This is a major shift in how the federal government classifies these types of cannabis products.

*DOJ RECLASSIFIES MEDICAL MARIJUANA AS A LESS-DANGEROUS DRUG: AP

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 23, 2026

The classification is designed to expand access to approved therapies, support state-regulated medical marijuana programs, and make research easier, while still keeping federal controls in place against black market operators.

The reclassification legitimizes medical marijuana programs already operating in 40 states. It also creates a faster DEA registration path for state-licensed medical marijuana operators and protects researchers using state-licensed cannabis products.

"The Department of Justice is delivering on President Trump’s promise to expand Americans’ access to medical treatment options," Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche stated in a press release.

Blanche continued, “This rescheduling action allows for research on the safety and efficacy of this substance, ultimately providing patients with better care and doctors with more reliable information.”

It appears the Trump administration is taking a two-track approach: immediate relief and policy clarity for medical marijuana and researchers, while also setting up a faster legal roadmap toward broader federal reclassification later.

The news sent marijuana stocks soaring in premarket trading:

• Canopy Growth (CGC): $1.48, up about 7%

• Tilray Brands (TLRY): $8.50, up about 8%

• Aurora Cannabis (ACB): $4.01, up about 5.5%

• Cronos Group (CRON): $3, up about 7%

• Organigram Global (OGI): $1.67, up about 5%

• SNDL (SNDL): $1.77, up about 6.6%

• Village Farms (VFF): $3.31, up about 7%

Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ), which holds several of the major cannabis names listed above, is up nearly 6% in premarket trading. MJ remains flat year-to-date but has rallied 33% over the past month.

Related: 

• Half Of Americans Live In States Where Weed Is Legal

Late last year:

• "People Begging Me To Do This": Trump Signs Executive Order Reclassifying Cannabis

Trump is on a roll: 

• Psychedelic Stocks Soar After Trump Order; RBC Says Commercialization Path Could Accelerate

DoJ noted, "Today’s order is reflective of the Department of Justice’s continued dedication to common-sense policies and the prioritization of the safety and well-being of all Americans."

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 09:20

9th Circuit Kills California's ICE Unmasking Law

The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals handed the Trump administration a significant legal victory Wednesday, issuing a formal injunction blocking California's No Vigilantes Act from being enforced against federal law enforcement officers. The court ruled that the state law - which required non-uniformed federal agents to visibly display identification while performing their duties - likely violates the Supremacy Clause of the U.S. Constitution.

Carlin Stiehl/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

The No Vigilantes Act, part of a two-bill package signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom in September, was California's legislative response to immigration enforcement operations in Los Angeles. 

The Trump administration had filed suit in November, contending the law created real and immediate dangers for ICE officers already facing what it described as harassment, doxing, and threats of physical violence. The Department of Justice argued that federal agents must retain discretion over their own safety protocols. "Denying federal agencies and officers that choice would chill federal law enforcement and deter applicants for law enforcement positions," the Justice Department wrote in its lawsuit.

The law's companion piece, the No Secret Police Act, had previously been blocked by a federal district court in February on the grounds that it discriminated against federal interests by applying the mask ban exclusively to federal officers. 

 "The No Vigilantes Act responds to troubling immigration enforcement activities in which masked agents have seized people off the street without showing an agency name, personal identification, or badge number, alongside a rise in law enforcement impersonation cases and efforts in other states to recruit bounty hunters for immigration enforcement," State Sen. Sasha Renée Pérez (D-Pasadena), who authored the legislation said back in September, adding that the measure would "help rebuild the community's trust."

The court clearly didn’t see it that way. 

The 9th Circuit's three-judge panel found that “The United States is likely to succeed on the merits of its claim that § 10 of the No Vigilantes Act violates the Supremacy Clause because § 10 attempts to directly regulate the United States in its performance of governmental functions.”

The court further determined that all other preliminary injunction factors favored the federal government, clearing the way for the injunction to take effect pending further court order.

BREAKING: The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals has issued an injunction blocking enforcement of California’s new law that requires ICE agents to unmask and wear visible ID, arguing it violates the Supremacy Clause because it “attempts to directly regulate the United States in its… pic.twitter.com/jedIEO0z2N

— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) April 22, 2026

The outcome was not unexpected. During oral arguments in early March, 9th Circuit judges were openly skeptical of California’s position that the identification requirement was analogous to generally applicable laws such as speed limits. The state argued the law treated all law enforcement equally, but the panel clearly didn’t buy the argument that such framing could justify states directly regulating federal operations.

Bill Essayli, First Assistant U.S. Attorney for the Central District of California, did not understate what the ruling meant in a post on X. "Huge legal victory this morning in the Ninth Circuit, where the court permanently enjoined California's unconstitutional mask law targeting federal agents," he wrote. 

The use of "permanently" may be premature — the injunction technically remains pending further court order — but the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution is quite clear, and there’s little reason to believe the No Vigilantes Act will survive.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 09:05