Individual Economists

Confirmed Deaths In Ebola Outbreak Eclipse 1,000

Zero Hedge -

Confirmed Deaths In Ebola Outbreak Eclipse 1,000

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Ebola outbreak spreading in Africa has killed more than 1,000 people, authorities said on July 23.

A doctor provides care to a patient with Ebola virus disease at an Ebola treatment center in Bunia, Congo, on July 13, 2026. Benediction Murhabazi /AFP via Getty Images

The number of confirmed deaths from Ebola in Congo in recent months hit 1,033, Congolese authorities said.

Forty percent of the confirmed 2,536 patients have died.

Another 506 people have recovered, and 738 are currently in isolation or being treated in hospitals, according to officials in the central African country.

"Health teams are pursuing surveillance operations, case management, and contact tracing to contain the spread of the disease," Congo's Ministry of Communications said.

Teams have been able to track the contacts of 77 percent of patients in a bid to control the outbreak, much lower than the 90 percent threshold suggested as ideal by the World Health Organization.

The only other deaths confirmed in the outbreak are two in Uganda, which has not recorded any new cases in several weeks.

The outbreak was detected in Congo in mid-May, although it is believed to have started weeks or even months earlier. It is caused by the Bundibugyo virus, a rare type of ebolavirus for which there are no approved treatments or vaccines.

"These are people dying. They are dying because we don't have vaccines, we don't have medicine, we don't have funding," Dr. Jean Kaseya, director-general of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said during a summit in Ghana on Wednesday.

The Africa CDC and other entities have been seeking and have received tens of millions in funding from the United States and other countries to combat the outbreak, but say they need more funds and resources.

World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters earlier in July that the outbreak was "continuing to outpace the response" and that the response plan needed more than $400 million in additional funds.

Ebola was first identified in 1976 after an outbreak in modern-day Congo. The deadliest Ebola outbreak on record ran for two years starting in 2014 in West Africa, causing 28,610 cases and killing 11,308 people.

That outbreak was caused by the Zaire ebolavirus.

The current outbreak is growing at a much faster rate than that outbreak did, according to Kaseya.

U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention scientists said in modeling projections released in June that absent "large-scale and sustained public health interventions," the outbreak centered in Congo could become as large as the 2014-2016 outbreak.

"Rapid identification of cases, contact tracing, isolation and treatment of persons with [Ebola], community engagement, and use of safe and dignified burial for persons who die from [Ebola] are necessary to control the outbreak," they said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 17:00

LA Is Finally Cleaning Up Its Infamous "Graffiti Towers" Before The Olympics Arrives

Zero Hedge -

LA Is Finally Cleaning Up Its Infamous "Graffiti Towers" Before The Olympics Arrives

For years, the unfinished Oceanwide Plaza towers have stood as one of downtown Los Angeles' most notorious landmarks. Not because of their architecture, but because of what they became. After construction stalled, the empty high-rises were transformed into a massive canvas for graffiti artists, attracting vandals, urban explorers and thrill-seekers who repeatedly scaled the abandoned buildings.

Covered in colorful tags and visible across the city's skyline, the so-called "graffiti towers" have come to symbolize both the project's collapse and the city's struggle to deal with one of its most recognizable eyesores. But now Los Angeles' infamous graffiti-covered Oceanwide Plaza towers are expected to be cleaned within the next 90 days under a commitment from the project's proposed new owner, according to Mayor Karen Bass' office, according to NBC Los Angeles

NBC reports that with the 2028 Olympics approaching, KPC Development Co. has agreed to remove the graffiti from the unfinished skyscrapers, allowing the city to withdraw its objection to the project's revised bankruptcy plan so cleanup can begin before construction resumes.

If the bankruptcy court approves the sale, KPC plans to complete the long-stalled development, which is slated to include apartments, a hotel, restaurants and retail space. The company will pay for the graffiti removal, city officials said.

Residents who have long complained about the vandalized towers welcomed the announcement, saying the cleanup is an important step toward improving downtown Los Angeles before the Olympics.

And hey...cleaning up the towers is a start. Now the city just has to get around to cleaning up the rest of Los Angeles before the world arrives for the Olympics.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 16:40

"I'm Not Racist": Musk Slams Snooty Leftist Interviewer, Says "I Support The Normal People"

Zero Hedge -

"I'm Not Racist": Musk Slams Snooty Leftist Interviewer, Says "I Support The Normal People"

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

During a terse exchange, Elon Musk told the virulently leftist editor-in-chief of The Economist that civil war in Britain is inevitable on current trends - driven by rapid migration of people whose beliefs clash with Western civilisation.

In response, Zanny Minton Beddoes accused Musk of supporting the "far right," and amplifying racists.

Musk called the coming confrontation a "reckoning," rejected the racist smear, and turned the tables on an interviewer determined to paint secure borders and opposition to rape and murder as fringe extremism.

When the interviewer insisted she lived in Britain and called the claim "nonsense," he shot back: "You live a very closeted existence!"

He expanded:

"If you have a large and growing, rapidly growing, group of people whose beliefs are antithetical to western beliefs, at some point there will be a reckoning."

Musk described the prospect as inevitable and called it a "crying shame" that mainstream outlets refuse to recognise the threat to Western civilisation.

Pressed on whether he was racist or anti-Muslim, Musk answered directly:

"My partner is half-Indian and I have four children with her. One of them was named after a famous Indian physicist. So I would say I'm not racist."

He continued:

"If people are coming to a country with antithetical views, I am against that. I'm against rape and murder, I'm against the imposition of rules and laws that are contrary to what we've come to accept in the West."

The interviewer's line of attack was clear.

She framed Musk's support for parties defending borders and cultural continuity as backing for the "far right" and even "very fringe parties."

Musk refused the frame.

"No, I support the NORMAL people," he said. "What you call the far right FALSELY."

He pointed out that the same positions - secure borders, safe cities, sensible spending - were mainstream only 10 or 15 years ago.

Speeches by Obama or Hillary Clinton on these subjects would today be denounced as Trumpian extremism by the "lunatic left."

When Beddoes claimed people "loathe" him, Musk was unmoved, firing back "I don't care, but the fact that, as you pointed out, a quarter billion people follow me is that I think a lot more people actually like me than don't. And I think a lot more people hate you and the media more than you realize."

OOF. Feel the burn.

The pattern is familiar. Positions once held by centre-left politicians are now labelled extreme so that any defence of Western norms can be pathologised. Musk called it out without apology.

The full interview, spanning AI, Europe, politics and the rest, is available here (for now):

Musk's warning with regards to Britain is not abstract theorising. It lands against a backdrop of UK government moves that look like quiet preparation for internal fracture.

Last year Professor David Betz of King's College London warned that official talk of a Russian invasion threat was a convenient cover for hardening infrastructure and building a citizen's militia against domestic conflict.

Low trust, political factionalism and demographic change, he argued, are pushing Britain toward civil strife.

Just days ago the UK government urged households to stockpile long-life food, water, medicines and wind-up radios while announcing the largest home-defence wargame in decades - Operation Albiston Shadow - again framed around hybrid Russian threats. Betz's analysis remains the same: the real concern is internal, not external.

Musk's latest comments connect those dots in plain language.

The UK has seen repeated outbreaks of disorder linked to migration failures - Southport, Southampton and beyond. Official responses have often appeared two-tier. At the same time, the state is stockpiling resilience messaging and running large-scale domestic defence exercises while insisting the danger is primarily Russian.

The academic critique from Betz and others is that this is politically safer language for a deeper problem: a society whose cohesion has been eroded by rapid demographic change and elite refusal to confront incompatible values.

Musk is simply saying the quiet part out loud. Large-scale importation of populations that reject core Western principles - equality under the law, free speech, protection of women and girls - creates friction that does not magically resolve. When media and political classes treat any discussion of that friction as "far right," the pressure only builds.

Britain's leadership can keep pretending the only threats come from Moscow or from citizens who notice the transformation of their own towns. Musk is not pretending. Neither should anyone else who values the civilisation that still, for now, allows such interviews to happen.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 16:30

"The Polycrisis Of 2026 Whirls Like A Demon-Infested Storm Overcoming This Human Project..."

Zero Hedge -

"The Polycrisis Of 2026 Whirls Like A Demon-Infested Storm Overcoming This Human Project..."

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Struggle session

“. . .there is no saving the Left. There is only saving America from them.” — Sasha Stone

The polycrisis of 2026 whirls like a demon-infested storm overcoming this human project of ours like a medieval panorama of the world’s end. Everything is fraught, tilting toward hazard, menace, ruin. Even under a summer sun, the mind sees only darkness everywhere it looks.

Apocalypse now, it seems like.

You almost can’t blame the doomers, the black pill-ers, lost in their transports of dread.

But I tell you, we will get through this.

Is it a surprise that the IRGC has a death wish for its host, Iran? They’ve been advertising it loudly for half a century, yearning for martyrdom, the bliss of paradise, marriage to multiple perfumed virgins, all the pomegranates you could ever want, and perpetual dreamtime beside a gently burbling fountain in the palace of eternity. Trouble is, to get there you must have your head blown off.

That’s exactly what the IRGC is asking for, though the millions of ordinary Iranians probably have their doubts about the ask. They are hostages of the IRGC regime, which refuses to just stop being a problem for the world. Mr. Trump’s proffer for Iran still abides: become a normal nation, sovereign and all, only without atom bombs. Let ships sail through Hormuz unmolested. Sell your oil, make some money, trade with the other fellas across the Persian Gulf, have a nice civilized life with all the refinements of age-old Persian culture, even with its Islamic overlay. Be happy!

The USA does not seek to occupy Iran, steal its resources, subjugate its people, force them to buy Minnie Mouse plush toys, play baseball, eat Jimmy Dean sausage for breakfast, strum banjoes, or wear cowboy hats. Just stop projecting violence and discord all over the Middle East.

You can’t make us, the IRGC says. Yes, we will, the USA replies. And so it goes. Next up: bridges and power plants. Plus, every ship you damage, we’ll deduct the cost of repair from your frozen assets held in our banks. This is where things stand after the thirteenth night of strategic bombing against the IRGC’s launch sites, drone factories, missile storage caverns, and shoreline military installations. Iran prepared assiduously for this death-scene for decades, building hidey-holes here, there, and everywhere. But every time they launch something now, our satellites mark the coordinates, and boom, now there’s one less hidey-hole.

Iran’s currency, the rial, has an exchange rate against the US dollar of about 1,900,000 to one dollar. There is hardly a functioning economy left. The people are flat broke. Everyday life must be hell now. Could be the IRGC was getting tons of munitions and material for free from China, but days ago we blew up the railroad bridge at Aq Tekeh-Khan that was China’s main connection to Iran, so that’s over with.

You must doubt that Russia is capable of sending arms to Iran at this point. Russia needs every drone and missile it can fabricate now that Ukraine is sending drones clear into Moscow and St. Petersburg on a regular basis. Of course, that war is being stoked by NATO, which perforce includes the USA. A bill (H.R. 2913 — the Ukraine Support Act) that would furnish $1.3-1.8 billion in direct security, military, and reconstruction assistance for Ukraine plus $8 billion in loans was passed by the House in June, but languishes in the Senate. President Trump has threatened to veto it, as running counter to the administration’s preference for negotiations with Russia to end the Ukraine War rather than extend it.

These two conflicts must seem intractable for now, but the mojo driving them has clear and present limits.

If the USA does not underwrite Ukraine’s war effort, then that leaves the EU nations, who are increasingly broke, and for all their idle talk are really incapable of mounting a major arms production campaign.

The UK especially is skating on thin ice these days as Mr. Trump methodically cancels its long-running command and control of global finance through the City of London (as its “Wall Street” is called). In fact, it looks as if the floundering UK — with dopey Andy Burnham rolling in as Britain’s seventh Prime Minister in a decade — has passed the ball of globalist leadership to its forward striker (and all-purpose fixer) Mark Carney the Prime Minister of Canada.

Carney, who was previously chief of the Bank of England, has played a series of losing games against President Trump the past year, while Mr. Carney is busy wrecking the Canadian economy for the sake of the globalist “green” flimflam, a sustained high volume of third world immigration, and outlandish DEI activism that includes giving vast tracts of real estate back to Canada’s First Nations people, their Indians. Carney has also very actively played footsie with the CCP to a degree that is seriously pissing off Mr. Trump. Among all the other shocks and surprises upcoming, you might imagine him having to send the 82nd Airborne up to Ottawa to inform PM Carney that there will be no globalist seat of operations in North America.

Yes, things are getting that strange. And then, continuing the clean-up operation south of our border, there is Cuba to straighten out. Cuba is obviously next. Our patience with that failing state’s communist export project is particularly thin, now that the Democratic Party here is entertaining Marxist-Leninist dreams of glory.

On top of all that, we have serious concerns with the financial markets and the widening income inequality that drives the younger generations’ yen for “socialism” (free rent, free medicine, free stuff).

Financialization concentrates and compounds wealth while the salary-mule class stagnates, suffers, goes broke, and nurses its grievances.

We’re pushing into the season of financial train wrecks. AI has cornered all the free capital in the land — for something that appears to be an existential menace as much as any potential economic benefit — and it is wildly perverting the equity market. The bond market groans under the debt burden and the impossibility of fiscal prudence. Capitalism that can’t self-correct invites financial and political violence.

It’s probably a greater threat to us than the faraway wars, bad as they are. Mr. Trump, Secretary Bessent, and others in charge surely know this — that the American ownership class has become tiny, and that the cure for that is getting the vast dis-owned, forsaken middle-class back into businesses that they will own, in an economy based on production of real goods, not on playing games with money.

There is so much to be done and we can get it done if we screw our heads back on.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 16:20

Financial Repression: How The US Government Will Quietly Confiscate Your Wealth

Zero Hedge -

Financial Repression: How The US Government Will Quietly Confiscate Your Wealth

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

When I first heard the term “financial repression,” I thought it had to be a joke.

Why would governments and central banks use a term with such a negative connotation? Even people who are financially illiterate can understand that financial repression is a bad thing.

Simply put, financial repression is a strategy governments use to reduce their debt burden by manipulating interest rates below inflation.

It allows them to borrow in dollars and repay in dimes.

Here’s how the IMF describes it, emphasis mine:

“Financial repression includes directed lending to government by captive domestic audiences (such as pension funds), explicit or implicit caps on interest rates, regulations of cross-border capital movements, and (generally) a tighter connection between government and banks.”

More from the IMF:

“High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring.

But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or below-market real interest rates.

After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion.

Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation.”

For example, if inflation is 9% and governments fix interest rates at 4%, there is an ongoing 5% wealth transfer from the lender to the borrower. And that transfer compounds over time.

I think financial repression is how the US government will try to manage its otherwise impossible debt situation.

Consider this.

Among the biggest expenditures for the US government are so-called entitlements like Social Security and Medicare.

It’s unlikely any politician will cut entitlements. On the contrary, I expect them to continue growing.

That’s because tens of millions of Baby Boomers—about 22% of the population—will enter retirement in the coming years. Cutting Social Security and Medicare is a sure way to lose an election.

With the most precarious geopolitical situation since World War 2, National Defense—another large expenditure—is unlikely to be cut. Instead, defense spending is all but certain to increase. President Trump has proposed increasing it from $917 billion to $1.5 trillion. The ongoing war with Iran guarantees military spending has nowhere to go but up, way up.

Different types of welfare programs also make up a considerable part of the federal budget and are unlikely to be cut.

In short, efforts to reduce expenditures will be meaningless unless it becomes politically acceptable to make chainsaw-like cuts to entitlements, national defense, and welfare, while also reducing the national debt enough to lower interest costs.

In other words, the US would need a leader who—at a minimum—returns the federal government to a limited Constitutional Republic, closes the 800 military bases abroad, ends entitlements, kills the welfare state, and repays a large portion of the national debt.

However, that is a completely unrealistic fantasy.

It would be foolish to bet on it happening.

In any case, don’t count on increased tax revenue to offset these increases in federal expenditures.

Even if tax rates went to 100%, it still wouldn’t be enough to stop the debt from growing.

According to Forbes, there are around 902 billionaires in the US with a combined net worth of about $6.8 trillion.

The US federal government spent around $7 trillion in FY 2025, and will almost certainly spend a lot more in FY 2026 and beyond.

Even if the US government confiscated 100% of billionaire assets through a wealth tax, it wouldn’t cover even a single year of current federal spending.

And even after confiscating all billionaire wealth, the US government would still have to borrow more than $200 billion to cover FY 2025 spending.

Here’s the bottom line: increasing taxes, even to extreme levels, isn’t going to change the trajectory of this unstoppable trend—even slightly.

The truth is, no matter what happens, the deficits will not stop growing, nor will the debt needed to finance them.

In short, it’s politically impossible to even slow the federal spending growth rate, let alone cut it.

That means issuing ever-increasing amounts of debt is the only way to finance continuously expanding budget deficits.

The ever-growing interest expense on the ever-growing federal debt compounds the problem. It adds to the deficit, which must be financed with even more debt, which creates even more interest expense.

So what options does the US government have to deal with this impossible situation?

In my view, the US government has no choice but to implement financial repression.

The idea is to stealthily confiscate wealth from bondholders without causing too much alarm.

Financial Repression

There are many flavors of financial repression.

Capital controls. Mandates forcing banks, pension funds, and insurance companies to buy government bonds. Regulations that make government debt appear “safe” or “risk-free” on institutional balance sheets. Yield curve control. Interest rate caps. Restrictions on moving money abroad.

And countless other policies designed to trap capital inside the system and push it toward government debt.

For example, many countries have forced private retirement funds into unwanted government debt. I have no doubt the US government would do the same under pressure.

They could try to sell it to a scared and financially ignorant public as a safety measure—a way to help people protect their retirement savings by moving them into “safe” Treasuries amid a stock market collapse.

They could sell it with patriotic lies and push War Bonds, as they have done in the past.

They could mandate that a certain amount—say, 25%—of all new contributions to private retirement accounts must consist of Treasuries. For your own good, of course.

They could even forcibly convert existing assets held in retirement accounts into government bonds.

No matter the method, the result is the same.

The government needs to borrow enormous amounts of money at artificially low interest rates.

So it creates rules, incentives, and restrictions that force or pressure savers and institutions to finance government deficits on terms they would never voluntarily accept in a free market.

That is the essence of financial repression.

It’s no wonder financial repression is so attractive to politicians.

It allows them to reduce the real value of the debt without admitting they defaulted, without officially raising taxes, and without making the politically impossible spending cuts that would otherwise be required.

And they can do it while perhaps not even 1 in 100 people truly understand what is happening.

Financial repression will not arrive with a public announcement. It will come through policies that appear reasonable, temporary, and even protective—while quietly eroding the value of your savings and limiting your financial freedom.

This is only one part of a much larger crisis now taking shapeRead our free report to understand the forces driving it, the risks they pose to your wealth and personal freedom, and the three strategies you can use right now to prepare.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 15:40

US Bombing Campaign Effectiveness In Doubt As Iranians Rebuild At Rapid Pace

Zero Hedge -

US Bombing Campaign Effectiveness In Doubt As Iranians Rebuild At Rapid Pace

Neocon war hawks thought that Iran's defense capabilities could be obliterated through shock and awe style heavy bombing raids, such as during the opening days and weeks of Operation Epic Fury, but just like pretty much every other assumption about how things would go in the little Iran "excursion" - they are once again proven wrong.

Several fresh reports from both American and Israeli sources say that Iran is rebuilding damaged and destroyed facilities at much faster-than-expected pace. This is despite the well over 20,000 US-Israeli strikes carried out at the height of the war.

Analyzing the latest satellite imagery assessing the damage, The Wall Street Journal writes that the Islamic Republic has "quickly rebuilt infrastructure damaged during the U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign over recent months, from missile bases nestled deep inside mountains to bridges, ports and production facilities, according to Israeli and Western officials and a review of satellite imagery."

Handout satellite image courtesy of Vantor shows tunnel entrances at a missile complex in Isfahan, in central Iran. via Vantor/AFP

The publication says that this is a significant factor in explaining how the Iranians have managed to maintain their grip on the Strait of Hormuz and thus serious economic and political leverage.

Everything from roads to bridges to tunnel entrances have also be restored at surprising speeds, which also suggests the US bombings have had a rallying effect among civic workers and the broader population in support of the nation and the government.

WSJ offers but one example as follows: "Near Kangavar, in western Iran, satellite imagery from Planet Labs in March showed two tunnel entrances and an access road damaged by airstrikes aimed at blocking access to an Iranian missile base. Within weeks, imagery from Airbus revealed a neatly paved road leading to freshly excavated entrances."

Israeli media too has listed out the following further examples:

Kangavar Missile Base: Attacked in early March; satellite images show an access road was destroyed, but a newly paved road was built weeks later to bypass the damage.

Bandar Anzali Port: Despite Israel claiming significant damage in March to the IRGC-linked port, command center, and shipyard - early July images show active reconstruction underway.

Tehran Missile Plant: Recent imagery documents active rebuilding efforts at a missile production facility near the capital.

This is causing US and Israeli officials to revisit strategy concerning potential future major bombing campaigns over Iran.

It was in April that the US and Israel began ramping up attacks on bridges and rail lines to cripple Iran's national transport network. Israel especially adopted attacks against key civilian infrastructure as a battle tactic, in hopes that eventually there would be a groundswell of anti-Tehran anger domestically, leading to government overthrow. Of course, regime change has never happened, and is proving an illusive Neocon fantasy. 

President Trump himself had also at the time repeatedly threatening to bomb bridges, power plants, and other infrastructure to send Iran "back to the Stone Age."

Iranian officials say multiple damaged rail lines and bridges have been restored in record time - sometimes within 40 to 96 hours - using domestic engineering teams. The ceasefire which was declared on April 8, but which is now defunct, was used as a time of rapid rebuilding - something which even US officials have acknowledged

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 15:20

'Caution Is Warranted': Ed Dowd Warns Wall Street's AI CapEx Party Is Ending

Zero Hedge -

'Caution Is Warranted': Ed Dowd Warns Wall Street's AI CapEx Party Is Ending

Authored by Ed Dowd via 'Beyond The Narrative' substack,

The signs are piling up faster than the hype can spin them. AI capex has been the rocket fuel for markets, but the second derivative is turning. Factors ending the party:

  • Private credit stalled — flows reversing, redemptions surging, industry effectively paused.

  • Enterprise demand cracking — ROI skepticism, token costs biting, data/alpha extraction backlash.

  • Power constraints hitting hard — the grid can’t scale without massive, long lead time builds or dystopian reallocation.

  • Open-source pressure — Chinese based DeepSeek and now the new open-source frontier model Kimi K3 are rivaling OpenAI and Anthropic frontiers labs at fraction of the price, commoditizing the economics.

Credit markets always end the party. We’re watching it live.

Private Credit: The Silent Pause Button on AI Capex

This is where financing reality bites. Morgan Stanley estimated private credit could fund up to 50% of the external financing needs for the massive AI data center buildout. That channel is now under serious stress.

Flows in private credit are going the wrong way. The industry is effectively paused. Redemption requests are surging, funds are gating, and high-profile bankruptcies plus underwriting scrutiny are flashing warnings. Private credit has become the new junk bond market…except it lacks transparency, liquidity, and is now being stress-tested in real time.

With outflows accelerating, near-term funding from Private credit for AI data center buildouts looks less likely. NVIDIA and others keep popping up in private credit loan books. What happens to repossessed GPUs in a stressed environment?

Continued capex relies on credit markets keeping the spigot open. When that spigot slows or gets expensive, the capex math breaks. Financing could turn prohibitively costly, pausing or dramatically slowing the cycle that has supported the S&P 500 index with roughly 45% of the market cap being AI or AI-adjacent.

Additionally AI infrastructure inflation itself is credit driven. This reflexive credit driven surge in demand has caused cost inflation for chips and data center construction making the past cost projections moot. These inflated costs make ROI hurdles even harder. Current creditors are reassessing their exposure as the Goldman Sachs credit desk has recently highlighted.

Enterprise Demand Is Cracking

The people who are supposed to use this stuff are slowing down. Companies that rushed AI tools into workers’ hands are now reining them in because costs at scale are biting. That’s not theory…it’s the second derivative showing up in real budgets. They are stepping back and trying to assess the ROI from this investment as their AI budgets come in above initial cost projections.

Alex Karp of Palantir laid it out bluntly. Enterprises are livid. They’re paying for tokens that create no reliable value. They’re watching their own workflows, customer data, and competitive alpha get extracted and potentially sold back to competitors. Token pricing itself is the confession…if these models delivered durable, defensible productivity gains at scale, the labs would price on value or take equity cuts, not meter compute.

Open-source pressure

DeepSeek and other cheaper open-source models were already pressuring token pricing for those users who didn’t need the frontier models. To make matters worse, recent newcomer Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 is a Chinese open-weight model rivaling top US frontier leaders OpenAI and Anthropic at a fraction of the cost. It’s putting direct pressure on closed-source pricing and exposing how over-hyped the token economics have become. Why pay premium rates when open-source alternatives deliver competitive performance? Competitive pricing hurts revenue growth for the two US frontier leaders which is likely to push their IPOs into next year (if at all) and raises the cost of their debt capital. The downstream effect is an eventual capex slowdown for the pick-and-shovel crowd (semiconductors etc.). Simple as that.

Power Constraints: The Physical Wall Nobody Wants to Talk About

Even if the money were flowing freely, the electricity isn’t. AI compute requires tremendous amounts of energy and water. Currently installed electrical capacity can’t handle the aggressive projections without massive new builds, which take years of capital, permitting, and construction or drastic reallocation of existing power away from other uses.

One path is slow and practical: add real capacity. The other gets dystopian fast: reduce human usage or rolling blackouts to free up juice. The reality will be somewhere in between and will play out politically. Local opposition to data centers is already rising over electricity rates, water use, and land. Towns are pushing back. This isn’t abstract futurism…it’s a hard physical constraint on timelines and costs.

Power adds another multiplier to the capex problem. Data centers need gigawatts. Hyperscalers are already forecasting enormous spending just to keep up. When private credit tightens and power infrastructure lags, the combined effect is a slower, more expensive buildout than the bull-case spreadsheets assume. The second derivative doesn’t just slow…it can stall.

Market Concentration and Cyclical Reality

Semiconductor stock valuations have hit record levels recently around 19-20% of the entire S&P 500. That’s not healthy diversification; it’s concentration in a notoriously cyclical industry whose recent boom has been funded by debt to business models that remain unproven at scale.

The biggest AI capex spenders have seen their stocks pull back meaningfully from highs even as broader indices hover near records. ROI concerns are finally showing up in price action. Even the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has been more sober: ‘AI has boosted confidence via productivity expectations, but it’s also raising job fears, supply bottlenecks, and the risk of overinvestment boom-bust cycles we’ve seen before.’ Power and credit constraints make that overinvestment risk even more acute.

Bottom Line

We’ve seen this movie before. Credit questions profitability first. Physical limits and cheaper open-source alternatives (hello Kimi) force the timeline and pricing reckoning. Circular deals, negative free cash flow, sky-high chip prices, and now power realities all point in the same direction.

The party isn’t over tomorrow but closing time signals are everywhere: semis at peak gross margins, enterprises pausing, private credit tightening, power wall rising, open-source commoditization accelerating. Stock market AI concentration at extremes.

Skepticism isn’t denial of eventual AI value. It’s calling the current valuation and frenzy for what it is…priced for perfection that customers, credit markets, the electrical grid, and open-source competition aren’t delivering.

Watch the flows. Watch power builds. Watch Kimi-style pricing pressure. Watch the second derivative across money, megawatts, and model costs. The unwind in these concentrated, debt-fueled, physically constrained narratives tends to be swift once the marginal equity buyer and/or lender steps away.

Caution is warranted…the bright bar lights are about to be turned on. The distance to a real repricing is shrinking fast. Protect capital. The math doesn’t lie.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 15:00

SpaceX Reportedly Turns Away Falcon Customers As Starship Gamble Comes Into Focus

Zero Hedge -

SpaceX Reportedly Turns Away Falcon Customers As Starship Gamble Comes Into Focus

Yet another corporate media report based on anonymous sources is likely to draw an immediate response from Elon Musk. He has repeatedly used X this year to challenge reporting on Tesla and SpaceX.

Bloomberg reports that SpaceX has begun turning away satellite operators seeking dedicated Falcon 9 launches after 2028 and is no longer accepting future reservations. The report was based on people familiar with the matter, and the company has not confirmed it.

The report continued:

Engineers at Musk's rocket, satellite and artificial intelligence juggernaut have halted building some non-reusable components for the Falcon family, such as the rocket's massive upper stage, said one of the people.

. . .

SpaceX's plans could change for a number of reasons, including development setbacks with the futuristic Starship vehicle, the people said. The company is likely to still use the Falcon 9 for launches for the Department of Defense and NASA, some of the people said.

If Starship isn't operational by the end of 2028 and Falcon production isn't extended, satellite operators could face a shortage of heavy-lift launch capacity. That means a lot is riding on the mega-rocket Starship getting through the testing phase and achieving commercial viability.

Starship's execution risks weighed on SpaceX shares this week after last week's test-launch delay. Over the past several weeks, more than $1 trillion in market capitalization has been wiped out.

Shares have fallen about 16% below the $135 IPO price in recent days.

The CIO of Tigress Financial Partners noted that the latest Starship launch abort "underscores ongoing execution risk around ramping Starship to high-cadence, reusable operations, and reinforces that repeated delays could push out revenue and margin trajectories."

Starship's Thursday launch attempt was postponed due to adverse weather conditions, with another attempt scheduled for later this evening. Check back for updates.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 14:45

A Quantum Roadmap Would Push Bitcoin Much Higher

Zero Hedge -

A Quantum Roadmap Would Push Bitcoin Much Higher

Authored by Ciaran Lyons via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin developers need to swallow their pride and outline a clear plan to harden the blockchain against quantum computing attacks, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards. He says the day they finally bite the bullet, the price will respond very quickly.

“If the Bitcoin core team says in two or three months: ‘this is our roadmap, we’re gonna solve it in the next two years, these are the rough steps we’ll take,’ that would be amazing news,” Edwards tells Cointelegraph on Trade Secrets. 

“I think that would discount a lot of the risk pretty much overnight,” Edwards says.

The question of whether Bitcoin developers should modify the network to make its cryptography quantum-resistant has sparked heated debate within the Bitcoin community, with some arguing that major changes could conflict with Bitcoin’s core ethos. Others claim quantum computers are many years away, and a rushed cure could be worse than the disease.

Charles Edwards says a clear roadmap could push price up “very quickly”

Edwards often highlights the risk of quantum computing to Bitcoin to his 132,800 X followers. The fear is that, one day, powerful enough quantum computers could break the cryptography that protects the Bitcoin network and potentially compromise Bitcoin wallets.

The uncertainty has impacted investor sentiment, and some analysts say it has contributed to the downfall in Bitcoin’s price. The world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock recently pointed to quantum computing as a potential long-term risk in materials for spot Bitcoin ETF investors. 

However, Edwards says if Bitcoin developers outline a clear roadmap to address the quantum threat, as some other chains have already done, it could send Bitcoin’s price higher “very quickly.” 

Source: Charles Edwards

“Double digits probably,” Edwards predicts.

He adds the quantum issue is “somewhat counterintuitively an upside catalyst potential,” because it is currently on the back burner and the Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs) to date are “not really” a genuine solution.

Edwards is no stranger to making high-conviction calls on Bitcoin. Based in Melbourne, Australia, he founded Capriole Investments in 2019, a hedge fund focused on Bitcoin and digital assets. The firm uses a combination of quantitative models, AI, and macroeconomic analysis to guide its investment strategy across crypto markets.

Charles Edwards says Bitcoin is 40% below its fair value

A growing number of observers worry the risk could become more serious if Bitcoin developers fail to make the necessary changes to the network before 2030. Ethereum is due to complete it’s post quantum overhaul by 2029, which will shine a spotlight on Bitcoin’s own preparations.

Bitcoin is trading at $65,270 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap

Edwards estimates that Bitcoin is currently around 40% below what he considers its fair value based on energy value, while arguing that quantum risk accounts for roughly a 30% discount. “That means it’s more than priced in,” Edwards said. Bitcoin is trading at $65,270 at the time of publication, roughly 49% below its October all-time highs of $126,100.

Edwards clarifies that Bitcoin’s current price reflects the quantum risk based on the information available today, rather than any unknown future developments that could accelerate the threat and tank the price further. 

His estimate is based on the timelines outlined by leading quantum computing companies and researchers for when “Q Day” could arrive, the point at which quantum computers become powerful enough to reverse engineer private keys from public keys. 

“That sits in that four to five year range, give or take, a few years,” Edwards says.

Edwards says he also factors in the time Bitcoin would need to develop and implement a solution, which BIP-360 author Ethan Heilman estimates could take years.

“If we’re gonna get into maths, it’s pretty simple; it is just an aggregation of those expert opinions. So it’s based on that, and based on the fact that there’s currently no solution for Bitcoin.”

“That risk again falls significantly if there’s a solution or if there’s a roadmap to a solution. But it also could grow if tomorrow we find out that Google is, you know, twice as far ahead on their roadmap to Q Day or some other major company,” he said.

“It’s priced in today, but it’s not to say that it can’t get worse or better. It’s just I think it’s skewed more probabilistically to the upside from here,” Edwards says.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 14:20

Nine Potential Commodity Wildcards As "Once-A-Decade" Shocks Become New Normal

Zero Hedge -

Nine Potential Commodity Wildcards As "Once-A-Decade" Shocks Become New Normal

A growing number of institutional desks sounded alarms over physical commodity markets this week as maritime chokepoint disruptions intensified across the Gulf.

Goldman Sachs, RBC Capital Markets, JPMorgan, and others warned that a tightening physical market could keep Brent firmly in triple-digit territory and drive prices sharply higher if the disruptions persist.

Joining the conversation was Citigroup Senior Commodities Strategist Eric Lee, who warned Thursday that commodity markets have entered an era of near-constant disruption, with geopolitical, climate, and technological shocks increasingly overwhelming traditional supply-and-demand analysis.

Lee warned:

Commodities markets are in an era where geopolitical, climate and technological shocks routinely overwhelm traditional supply-demand analysis. Rather than only what is most likely, investors need to consider what is plausible, and what markets are least prepared for.

The frequency of major commodities market disruptions appears to be rising. Events once considered "once -a-decade" now seem to emerge every year, or even every six months.

Since the early 2000s, markets have navigated the Global Financial Crisis, the Arab Spring, the US shale revolution, OPEC's strategic policy shifts; since 2020, wildcards include COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, trade wars, gold-positive macro concerns, weather-driven agricultural disruptions, and repeated Middle East conflicts.

Timeline showing notable wildcards and shocks impacting commodities, 2000-2026

List of notable wildcards and shocks impacting commodities:

Lee outlined nine high-impact commodity-market wildcards for the second half of 2026 and beyond, warning that the scenarios are not base-case forecasts but risks with consequences too large for investors to ignore:

  1. US-Iran conflict goes from temporary shock to multi-year disruption of Gulf oil production capacity, driving crude oil to $150+, wholesale refined products to $200+, US retail gasoline to $6/gal sustained.

  2. Russia-Ukraine escalation drives renewed oil and gas export restrictions: this could be even more bullish for global gas than for oil.

  3. Critical minerals hoarding goes into overdrive: drives copper to $20k/t and more.

  4. Gold falls another 15–20% near-term before doubling.

  5. Hyper El Niño and other extreme weather: drives ag price spikes, e.g. cocoa back to >$10k/t.

  6. AI boom and bust: buffet electricity, natural gas, uranium, and power-infrastructure metals like copper and aluminium one way, and gold the other way.

  7. Trade war hits US farmers again: US-China trade war resumes, hitting US ag exports, which could push corn below $4.2/bu and soybeans below $10/bu.

  8. 2030 LNG glut worsens on Russian Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline to China: driving global LNG prices like JKM down to $5–6/MMBtu.

  9. Monroe Doctrine extreme: US blockades all Americas oil exports, driving global oil prices to well above $100/bbl, while US benchmarks might be discounted by over $30/bbl.

A look at the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), a widely tracked commodity-futures benchmark, shows the broader complex, spanning energy, agriculture, metals, and livestock, continuing to climb from its Covid-era lows.

Professional subscribers can access deeper commodity analysis at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 12:40

Tariffs, Yet Again

The Big Picture -

 

 

Overnight, the Trump Administration announced a new, massive set of tariffs, claiming authorization by Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. The full list of the 60 countries tariffs were levied on is at The Independant.

These are as likely unlawful as the IEEPA tariffs were, but for different and more technical reasons. Congress did give the Executive branch limited authority to impose these sorts of tariffs, but with a very specific set of guidelines and procedures to follow.

The documents filed claim these were followed properly, but their own language makes it clear this is unlikely.

The new strategy is to use the complexity of Section 301 to provide SCOTUS cover to allow what is plainly a usurpation of Congressional authority.1   It was impossible for any credible court to have supported the IEEPA tariffs, as they were so clearly unconstitutional.2 

This time, the tactic was slightly cleverer, and enumerated by the WSJ’s Greg Ip:

“To Trump, though, court rulings are road maps, not roadblocks. February’s court ruling simply rerouted him to tools the court hadn’t explicitly prohibited. And fortunately for Trump, Congress has over the years scattered many such tools through the law books, many largely forgotten or unused.”

When the WSJ accuses the White House of abusing rules to accomplish their agenda, regardless — well, that’s really something.

Note that the document filed at 12:01 am last night was the USTR’s final “Notice of Action.” It references the evidentiary findings in a separate June 2, 2026 document titled “Acts, Policies, and Practices…” (See sources below)

On March 12, 2026, the USTR initiated, on its own, 60 simultaneous investigations. This is not the comprehensive document it appears to be at first glance. About 360 of the 431 pages (page 73 on) are the tariff schedule.

Rigorous, they are not.

All 60 country-specific “Determinations of Action” are identical boilerplate. Each is a single paragraph, and the template is word-for-word the same — only the country name, the rate (10% or 12.5%), and the cross-references change. No country-specific evidence, no discussion of any particular economy’s laws, enforcement record, or forced-labor exposure appears. Somehow, every major trading partner qualifies for tariffs — which is the reveal that this is not specific to any one nation’s behaviors.

Technically busy, analytically thin boilerplate is no way to manage trade policy…

Sorry, but nobody really believes that this administration performed 60 investigations, created a comprehensive report, analyzed 1,600 comments, and held a hearing, all in ~4 months, with seven weeks from proposed action to final tariffs that was anything more than just going through the motions. None of the 60 economies received individualized analysis or consideration in that window as required by statute.

A West Coast friend who alerted me to this late last night had already done the deep dive into the Federal Register and the 431-page United States Trade Representative document. His conclusion?

“The most recent research shows US economy paid 95% of the tariffs cost, and while more than half of that was initially borne by companies in lower profits, by this spring it was mostly consumers paying. His voters are innumerate, as is he… It basically concedes there were no USTR investigations, DJT picked the countries, and picked the rates.”

A document whose superficiality confesses that none of the applicable laws or procedures were followed should not withstand court scrutiny. No true analysis of various countries (only 1/2 page each); no calibration of tariffs in response to specific illegality; most important of all, no analysis of how the behavior in question negatively impacted US companies as required by section 301.

To actually determine what countries are using forced labor and its economic impact on US companies would take a lot more time, personnel, and intellectual firepower than the 4-month attempt applied here.

This was simply a response to the IEEPA loss at the Supreme Court. And if SCOTUS acts as it has since 2024, by the time they get around to striking this down in 2028, the damage will have already been done.

~~~

You would be wrong to think of these critiques against tariffs as merely a leftist tirade or partisan attack. The conservative Reason Foundation, a libertarian organization, observed: Trump Imposes Massively Harmful and Illegal Section 301 Tariffs, stating, “The new policy is based on sham investigations, and runs afoul of the major questions and nondelegation doctrine.”

Of course, these tariffs should be struck down, but if SCOTUS takes another year (again), there will be real economic and reputational harm done.3

 

 

 

Previously:
Winners & Losers of SCOTUS Decision Striking Down Tariffs (February 20, 2026)

Part II: IEEPA Tariff Ruling’s Losers (February 23, 2026)

Tariffs archive

 

See also:
Trump’s Trade Wars Are Back—Despite the Supreme Court
By Greg Ip
WSJ, July 23, 2026

 

Sources:
Report in Section 301 Investigations Acts, Policies, and Practices of Various Economies Related to the Failure to Impose and Effectively Enforce a Prohibition on the Importation of Goods Produced with Forced Labor
USTR, June 02, 2026

USTR Makes Findings and Proposes Action in 60 Section 301 Investigations Relating to Failures to Take Action on Trade in Forced Labor Goods.
Press Release
USTR, June 02, 2026

Notice of Actions in Section 301 Investigations of Acts, Policies, and Practices of Various Economies Related to the Failure of Each Economy to Impose and Effectively Enforce a Prohibition on the Importation of Goods Produced with Forced Lab
OFFICE OF THE UNITED STATES TRADE REPRESENTATIVE, July 24, 2026
Docket Nos. USTR–2026–0265, USTR–2026–0266

 

 

 

__________

1. t is very difficult to predict what a renegade, corrupt, partisan court will do.

2. And yet it still attracted three votes in favor: Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Brett Kavanaugh ignored the plain text of the Constitution.

3. There is a real chance SCOTUS allows this to slide, 5-4.

 

The post Tariffs, Yet Again appeared first on The Big Picture.

10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My end-of-week morning reads:

The Credit Market Lens: Rich Spreads, Cheap Treasuries, and an Incomplete Explanation: The evolution of credit spreads remains driven primarily by credit fundamentals, investor risk appetite, flows, and broader market technicals rather than relative value between Treasuries and swaps. (PIMCO)

• Meet All The Middle Aged Women Who Don’t Exist: They’re all gorgeous. They’re all “57.” And they’re all selling you NMN. AI-generated wellness influencers targeting women over 40 — fake people selling real supplements with fabricated testimonials. The grift is sophisticated and growing fast. (Charlotte’s Book) see also The Fake Influencers Selling Wellness on Your Feed: The New York Times video investigation of the same phenomenon. (New York Times)

Palantir’s greatest enemy: Not competition or regulation. The thing most likely to undo Palantir is its relationship with the U.S. government. Barrett Brown has spent 15 years investigating Peter Thiel. Now he lives in exile in Mexico. But he’s plotting his comeback (Dispatch)

How Wall Street’s Bots Are Cashing In on Trump’s Truth Social Posts: Traders who already monitor the president’s pronouncements with automated systems can pay for an ultrafast feed. At least five firms have signed up. (Wall Street Journal) but see also The ‘decayed’ impact of Trump’s Truth Social bombs: Markets are gradually learning to ignore the president. (Financial Times free)

Forever chemicals are hidden in farm soil. Scientists found a new way to remove them: Existing methods of PFAS cleanup are expensive. A new approach is an order of magnitude cheaper—and could also help fight climate change. (Fast Company)

The breakthrough changing how Americans donate organs: A growing form of donation is expanding the organ supply in the US — and testing how medicine protects dying patients. (Vox)

‘Ideological Emigration’: The Most Optimistic Israeli in Jerusalem Is Leaving the Country: Former brain researcher Hagai Agmon-Snir is behind a raft of initiatives to promote tolerance between Israelis and Palestinians, but he now has a one-way ticket to Italy. For him, Israel has become hopeless. A Haaretz profile of an Israeli who spent years arguing that things would get better — and finally gave up. The piece says as much about the state of Israel as it does about the man. (Haaretz) See also A Growing Number of Americans Are Seeking Residency and Citizenship Abroad—Here’s Where They’re Going: The emigration wave continues. Condé Nast Traveler maps where Americans are going — Portugal, Mexico, New Zealand, Ireland — and what’s pushing them out. It’s part of a global trend of travelers building so-called “sovereign portfolios,” a new report shows. (Conde Nast Traveler)

‘See the whole world in lichens,’ the marvels that grow anywhere: You might think that in the kingdom of green that is our Northwest, the mighty Douglas fir is supreme, or perhaps the red cedar. Ah, but consider the humble, the ancient, the ultimate in Northwest non-fussy, the enduring, inspiring signature of our regional character. That companion to Washington landscapes, whether east side or west, that thrives on just about any surface — dry, wet, bright, dark, hard, soft, natural, manufactured, whatever. Consider lichens. (Seattle Times)

The history of stadium design in 15 buildings. From Ancient Greece Colosseum to SoFi Stadium to the modern Gulf States, the stadium’s evolution over millennia has relied on numerous innovations, many of them first tested at the buildings on this list. How the places where we watch sports have evolved, and what they reveal about the cultures that built them. (De Zeen)

The Biggest Hygiene Mistakes People Make in the Pool: We asked infectious disease doctors and water-quality experts which hygiene mistakes they see most. Here’s what you’re probably getting wrong—and what to do instead. (Time)

Video of the day: Jamie Dimon: Why I Won’t Buy Bonds, AI’s Future & Leadership Lessons

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Lori Heinel, Global Chief Investment Officer of State Street Investment Management, the money management arm of investing giant State Street. She oversees over $5.7 trillion in assets (as of year-end 2025), which includes everything from index funds and ETFs to active strategies, multi-asset solutions, and alternatives. She was named to Forbes’ 2025 “50 Over 50” list.

IPOs Have Been a Losing Bet Since 2019

Source:
Apollo

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

India's Fuel Exports Set To Soar In July As Refining Margins Jump

Zero Hedge -

India's Fuel Exports Set To Soar In July As Refining Margins Jump

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com,

India is on track to export the highest volume of refined petroleum products in months as refining margins have jumped with the re-escalation of the Middle East conflict.

India is estimated to ship as many as 1.55 million barrels per day (bpd) of light and middle distillates in July, per data by commodity analysts Kpler cited by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell.

The July volumes would be nearly double the fuel export volumes of just 866,000 bpd in May, when the Strait of Hormuz crisis hit crude supplies to India and the rest of Asia. In May, India saw its lowest fuel exports in four years.

The tightening fuel markets in Asia and the rest of the world added to a renewed rally in refining margins after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapsed two weeks ago. This has encouraged Indian refiners to ramp up refined petroleum exports.

The expected volumes in July would be the second-highest level in Kpler’s data series dating back to 2017.

Earlier this month, Kpler estimated that India’s refined petroleum exports would hit in July the highest level since September 2025 as refiners race to capture soaring margins amid tight Asian fuel markets.

India’s high export levels in July could ease some of the pressure on the Asian fuel market, but not all of it, as crude supplies from the Middle East are once again at high risk of delay.

Asian refiners that had bet on a flood of crude supply from the Middle East in August are now faced with potential delays in deliveries amid the re-escalation of hostilities, which could thwart their plans to ramp up crude processing rates in the coming weeks.

Refiners in the U.S. and Europe are operating at near capacity, but those in Asia may not see the expected increase in throughput now that the July and August loadings and delivery schedules have been upended by the re-escalation of the Middle East conflict.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 06:30

Deaths Now Outnumber Births In 17 US States

Zero Hedge -

Deaths Now Outnumber Births In 17 US States

Natural population growth is slowing across much of America.

According to the latest U.S. Census Bureau estimates, 17 states recorded more deaths than births between July 2024 and July 2025, up from only four states during much of the 2010s.

Using U.S. Census Bureau data, Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld created this map showing natural population change in every state.

Because the measure excludes domestic and international migration, it highlights where population growth increasingly depends on people moving in.

Natural Population Change by State

The table below ranks every state by natural population change between July 2024 and July 2025, highlighting where births continued to outpace deaths—and where they no longer did.

State Natural Population Change
Jul 2024–Jul 2025 Pennsylvania -10,708 West Virginia -7,887 Maine -5,019 Michigan -4,998 Oregon -3,764 Mississippi -2,607 Alabama -2,188 New Hampshire -2,167 New Mexico -1,885 Vermont -1,769 Florida -1,333 Arkansas -1,224 Ohio -729 Delaware -554 Rhode Island -304 Montana -90 Kentucky -83 Missouri 177 Wyoming 295 South Carolina 564 Wisconsin 1,161 Hawaii 2,024 Connecticut 2,283 District of Columbia 2,516 Oklahoma 2,559 South Dakota 2,605 North Dakota 2,630 Louisiana 2,774 Iowa 2,949 Nevada 3,051 Alaska 3,308 Tennessee 3,597 Kansas 4,951 Nebraska 6,136 Idaho 6,900 Massachusetts 8,419 Indiana 8,561 Illinois 10,903 Maryland 11,444 Minnesota 12,071 Virginia 13,817 North Carolina 15,129 Washington 17,230 Colorado 20,608 Utah 24,961 New Jersey 26,023 Georgia 28,631 Arizona 20,914 New York 42,815 California 109,715 Texas 157,711

Pennsylvania recorded the nation’s largest natural decline (-10.7K), followed by West Virginia, Maine, and Michigan. Most states with natural decreases were concentrated in the Northeast and Appalachia, regions that include several states with some of the country’s oldest populations.

Florida also recorded more deaths than births, yet remained one of America’s fastest-growing states because of migration.

The South remained the engine of natural population growth. Texas (+158K), Georgia (+29K), and North Carolina (+15K) posted strong gains. California (+110K) and New York (+43K) also recorded far more births than deaths despite slower overall population growth.

America’s Population Is Increasingly Shaped by Migration

Natural population change tells only part of the story.

Several states with more deaths than births, including Florida, Maine, and Pennsylvania, can still grow overall when migration offsets their natural decline. Others continue losing population even after attracting newcomers.

Meanwhile, states such as Texas, North Carolina, and Arizona benefit from both natural population growth and migration, helping drive some of the country’s fastest population gains.

As America’s population ages and birth rates remain historically low, natural population growth is becoming less common. For a growing number of states, migration—not births—is now the primary driver of population growth, making migration trends increasingly important to their long-term demographic outlook.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on immigration’s role in U.S. population growth by state.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 05:45

The Multipolaristas' Are China-Maxxing

Zero Hedge -

The Multipolaristas' Are China-Maxxing

Authored by Iain Davis via Off-Guardian.org,

Let’s consider the arguments of those who advocate global governance, the people whom Hrvoje Morić identifies as the Multipolaristas. They are often engaged in China-maxxing and are, whether they know it or not, essentially serving as propagandists for the global oligarchy.

Research conducted by analysts working for the South China Morning Post (SCMP)—an English-speaking, Western-aligned Chinese news outlet—suggests that, between 2015 and 2025, a notable shift occurred in the way China and its government were portrayed by the leading Western media organisations.

Chief analyst Jianlu Bi, who is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Policy Studies and a research fellow at the Charhar Institute in Beijing, wrote:

[N]early 70 per cent of stories covering China’s economy, technology or environment in 2019 had a negative tone [but] by 2025, the share of negative stories dropped to around 40 per cent, along with an increase in neutral coverage across all categories and positive coverage of the [Chinese] economy.

This notable Western media narrative shift is part of a wider trend that can be described as “China-maxxing.” With outlets like The Economist, the Financial Times, and The New York Times—all previously known for their staunch anti-China propagandanow quite regularly extolling the virtues of China and, most notably, its economy, “China-maxxing” is an identifiable phenomenon.

The Western mainstream media is gradually shifting to sell the Chinese government to us as the “good guys.”

Recently, Elon Musk has engaged in some China-maxxing of his own. Musk is part of the gaggle of oligarchs eager to roll out AI data centers wherever they can. Musk was keen to point out that the only national government that has, in his view, adopted the right approach is China’s:

The availability of energy is the issue. If you look at electrical output outside of China, it’s more or less flat. Very slight increase, but pretty much flat. [. . .] If you’re putting data centers anywhere except China, where are you going to get your electricity? Especially as you scale, how are you going to turn the chips on? Magical power sources? Magical electricity fairies?

The previous blanket Western media vilification of China was always absurd state propaganda. China has been framed as the comic-book villain to encourage Western populations to accept further suppressions of their rights by their own governments and to claim justification for increased public spending on the Western military-intelligence complex.

Meanwhile, the multinational corporations that benefit from the government contracts, supposedly awarded to protect Western populations from the fabricated Chinese threat, such as Musk’s SpaceX, are led by oligarchs who genuinely pose a threat to everyone.

Though he didn’t use the term himself, in trying to explain China-maxxing, Mr. Jianlu offered a list of potential reasons for it. These included the Western media’s recognition of China’s technological and economic progress, the Chinese government’s apparent commitment to tackling climate change, its drive for efficiency, and so on. Jianlu argued that all of this has combined to force Western media outlets to reevaluate how they cover China and China-related matters.

Nation-states and national governments are set to be replaced by a global Technocracy. At some point, therefore, the conversation about moving away from the extant governance system to which people are accustomed to the new one has to commence.

Returning to Jianlu’s analysis, he is a leading Western policy think tank representative, and the media outlets he discussed primarily serve as propagandists for Western policy. Buried in the analysis, there is a brief statement that indicates what the real purpose of China-maxxing is:

Unlike the US, where policy shifts can abruptly occur due to political changes and short-term economic pressures, [. . .] China’s long-term strategic planning and consistent policy implementation have yielded results.

Dark Enlightenment-enthused oligarchs like Peter Thiel want to “escape from politics in all its forms,” and beyond dictatorship, there is no political mechanism of any kind in the Technocracy advocated by oligarchs like Elon Musk.

The oligarchy intends to make itself the feudal lords (founders) of private smart city-states similar to those currently being developed in China. The UN desires the same transformation. China-maxxing suits their shared agenda perfectly.

China-maxxing is yet more Western media propaganda, this time intended to convince Westerners that the model of government they are accustomed to no longer works. The Chinese development of Technocracy is better because it “yields[s] results.” Irrespective of the fact that no Westphalian-model Western government has ever operated as a democracy, China-maxxing has arrived to persuade Westerners that the so-called “representative democracies” that they have been misled to believe are democracies are now surplus to requirements.

Multipolaristas, specifically those working in the independent media, perhaps unwittingly argue that the dictatorial state control of human beings’ access to resources is acceptable because the accompanying surveillance state seemingly “yields[s] results.” Some say it reduces crime or that the gleaming towers of the new city-states are so beautifully clean and convenient. Others that China’s infrastructure investment strategy shows the world a clear alternative to austerity.

China is nation-building while Western nations decline and collapse. Chinese Technocracy “yields[s] results” that failing Western nations cannot match. Unless, logically, they too adopt Technocracy.

To an extent, the Multipolaristas make reasonable points. Who wouldn’t want to live in safe, clean cities? Who wants austerity when the state could invest in much-needed infrastructure instead? Who wouldn’t want the employment opportunities and the economic benefits that result? But all of the Multipolarista’s ostensibly reasonable observations and commentaries are based upon fatal omissions that result in them essentially spreading Western propaganda, intentionally or otherwise.

No state needs to impose a centralised technological population surveillance system in order to improve public safety, clean the environment or the streets, or invest in public infrastructure and its own economy. By effectively promoting global governance and Technocracy, the Multipolaristas’ foolhardy suggestion is that functional oligarchies are benevolent and that we should trust them.

Oligarchs are constructing their digital kill chains, and oligarchs like Musk are also promoters of China’s blossoming Technate. This is not a coincidence.

There are no historical examples of a state ever successfully imposing the full gamut of despotic behavioural control systems on a large population. But with its Greater Bay Area initiative, linking China’s numerous smart city projects together, China is reaching that point. Now Western mainstream and independent media outlets are showcasing China’s development to sell all the alleged benefits of Technocracy to Western populations.

Neither fascism nor communism even comes close to the behavioural dictatorship Technocracy is designed to inflict. Ignoring this aspect of China’s undoubtedly impressive modernisation is an epistemological error so profound it renders the rest of the Multipolaristas’ arguments practically irrelevant.

If the objective was not to enslave us, no state and no oligarch would construct Technates. The sole purpose of Technocracy is systematic human bondage.

From humanity’s perspective, there is nothing good about living in a Technocracy. No matter what incentives we are given, irrespective of the claimed benefits offered to entice us, giving our consent to those who wish to foist Technocracy upon us is an act of generational suicide.

There is, of course, no reason why we should agree to any of it.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 02:00

The Odyssey And The Tiresome Woke War Against White Culture

Zero Hedge -

The Odyssey And The Tiresome Woke War Against White Culture

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

We’ve all heard the argument for most of our lives: “White culture doesn’t exist.” It’s perhaps the most common racial refrain because it’s the most socially acceptable to repeat. If someone said “Black culture doesn’t exist because black people all herald from different tribes…” that person would be browbeaten as a bigot by the woke mob. When it comes to white culture, such claims are applauded.

The question is, why is it okay to diminish or denigrate white culture while worshiping every other culture? Furthermore, if white culture doesn’t exist, why are woke minority groups constantly trying to hijack white history and accomplishments?

I want to explore this issue a little more deeply, mostly because of the endless targeting of western civilization through the leftist deconstruction of our most popular figures and mythologies. This time, the Hollywood elites have chosen Homer’s The Odyssey, an ancient Greek classic deeply rooted in western history (white history), as their victim.

Hollywood has pulled out ALL the stops for this movie and I suspect it’s because they are desperate. They are desperate for a woke win. They’ve had hundreds of failures both in film and television in the past few years and it’s starting to look like “Get Woke, Go Broke” is becoming the dominant force in popular discourse. The leftists can’t stand it.

In response, Hollywood has stacked the deck – They brought in Christopher Nolan, one of the only directors left in the industry who still has a built-in audience of simps who will go see his movies regardless of their quality. The distributors have focused on IMAX ticket sales for a wealthier clientele, artificially inflating the overall box office take.

The media has been running non-stop interference, promoting the movie heavily months in advance. Evidence also suggests that Rotten Tomatoes is once again rigging the audience score for this film by rejecting most negative reviews (they have done this with multiple woke tent pole movies over the years).

Hilariously, journalists are already declaring The Odyssey “proof” that “Get Woke, Go Broke” is a fallacy. As I write this, the movie hasn’t made a dime in profit yet. What I find most interesting, however, is that these activist journalists are actually using the phrase “Get Woke, Go Broke” in their vernacular. It’s an indirect admission of their agenda.

They are specifically citing our movement as their enemy and declaring us “defeated” because The Odyssey is projected to make money. By default, they are admitting that we are a threat to them, and that The Odyssey is a woke project designed to “silence us.” But why does this matter?

It’s important to understand that leftists think like children. They believe that having a “majority” is the same as being right; having a majority to them is the same as having power. If the Odyssey is a box office success, they think this proves that they are the dominant political movement.

They don’t care if their supposed majority is actually astroturf; if they can fool the public into thinking the political left has a social mandate, this will win them control over the culture. In other words, they’re trying to manufacture a consensus.

The Odyssey film is a clear salvo aimed directly at conservatives and western history. It is a multicultural travesty, a joke of a movie filled with historical inaccuracies and based on a deconstructionist translation written by a feminist academic from Oxford (Emily Wilson). The movie explicitly undermines the heroism of the story and makes Odysseus a broken man, suffering from “trauma” and PTSD over his regrets of the war and his “colonist” behavior.

But the spurious additions to the mythology are less interesting to me than the reasons they were included.

The deconstruction of Odysseus reminds me of what Kathleen Kennedy and friends at Disney did to Luke Skywalker in “The Last Jedi”. They took a brilliant, courageous and moral man and turned him into a shattered, crusty and nihilistic little bitch – completely the opposite of his original character. This was not a mistake, this was quite deliberate.

White people are not allowed to have bold, wise and confident heroes. We’re supposed to regret our history and our accomplishments. We’re not supposed to celebrate such things, because that might inspire us to be bold, wise and confident today.

The race swapped cast of The Odyssey featuring black actors, Hispanics, Asians, and other people (including a transgender Ellen Page playing a male Greek warrior) who would never have populated Homer’s era is the common angle of attack for woke Hollywood, but it’s not the only attack. If a main protagonist is white, as is the case in Nolan’s film, he must be torn down and made weak. He must be portrayed as shamed and desperate for redemption, which, of course, he will only receive by embracing progressive ideals.

The last thing Hollywood wants is to portray a white hero who is unapologetic for his actions and values.

This is the underlying woke messaging that really poisons the well when it comes to The Odyssey. The minority actors are primarily a shield from criticism. If anyone complains about African or Hispanic or Asian actors in a Greek epic, the media can pull the “racism” card and dismiss the issue outright. They assert that we merely hate seeing minorities in movies.

But it’s not minorities in movies that we have a problem with; it’s the injection of woke propaganda. This is the real crime. If Christopher Nolan made a film based on the African “Epic of Liyongo” from the 9th Century and he replaced the Swahili characters with white actors in a bid to hijack African history, the left wing would lose their collective minds and scream “cultural appropriation.”  The double standard is obvious.

Will Odyssey make a profit? Possibly. The movie had a big first weekend, but adjusted for inflation it didn’t even crack the top fifty on the list of opening weekend box office winners. The film has to make around $700 million in order to break even, not counting the 20% of the gross receipts that go to Christopher Nolan according to his contract.

I am doubtful that the studio will make much money on this flick, but Hollywood will declare it a victory all the same. Firstly, because no woke movie has had similar momentum in years. And secondly, because the political left is dying and they need a very public win in order to justify their habit of doubling down on failure.

Any sane and intelligent person would point out that one “successful” movie does not make up for the cemetery filled with woke box office disasters. This doesn’t matter to the activist mob. They think that one win will erase all their previous losses.

Furthermore, The Odyssey is intended to act as a continuation of the long Marxist march towards a multicultural west and the end of white history as we know it.

Homer’s epic poem was composed around 2800 years ago and is one of the oldest surviving works of literature in human history. It stands as a testament to the incredible accomplishments of the western world; part of the wellspring from which the modern west poured forth.

At the time The Odyssey was created, the Mediterranean was overwhelmingly Caucasian according to genetic records. This includes North Africa, which was majority Caucasian and largely “white” by modern standards. It should be noted that Sub-Saharan Africans did not exist in any notable quantity in North Africa or the Mediterranean until many centuries later because travel across the deserts of central Africa prevented their migration north for thousands of years.

Arabs were also limited and did not occupy the region in great numbers until the invasion of the Muslim hordes long after Homer lived.

Numerous images from the ancient Greeks and Macedonians, including pottery, murals and other surviving art, depict people of fair skin, often with blue eyes, and in some cases blonde hair, etc. In other words, they were white – Varying shades of white, but still white.

Simply pointing out this historical and scientific fact will immediately trigger the woke mob and their academic allies. You will be inundated with a flurry of exceptions and some tiresome mental gymnastics about why the people of these early civilizations were not really “white”. Remember, “white culture doesn’t exist”, only other cultures exist.

Far too many critics and historical conspiracy nuts actually think the demographics of North Africa and the Mediterranean in the time of Homer were the same as the demographics of North Africa and the Mediterranean today. They don’t know anything about the great migration shifts of the Middle Ages or the invasion of the Muslims. No meaningful discussion can be had with these people because their point of reference is built on pure ignorance.

Beyond that, there is another subset of dishonest people (woke leftists) who see it as their duty to undermine white history and rewrite as if it never existed. They often cater to the inferiority complexes of minority groups by asserting that white history is actually THEIR history. White people just “stole” accomplishments from other civilizations and replaced them over time.

This is part of the narrative that motivates the discourse over Christopher Nolan’s dismal film version of The Odyssey. It is a woke treatise, a magic talisman designed to brown-wash and feminize yet another piece of western heritage. It’s part of a greater agenda to make white people forget who we are, or at the very least, make us ashamed of who we are.

The end game? Like I said, it’s about the multicultural takeover of the western world. Everything stems from this scheme. Hollywood’s woke reboots are rooted in it. The mass immigration policies of leftist governments drive the agenda forward. The deconstruction of our history in public schools and colleges is designed to indoctrinate children so they never learn the truth.

Until one day, we look around, and everything that makes us who we are is gone, from meritocracy to republicanism, from Christianity to critical thinking, from innovation to entrepreneurship, from individual liberty to free markets, from property to responsibility, and yes, colonialism (the act of improving third world hellholes where people are incapable of improving their own surroundings so they don’t turn into pillagers trying to invade our countries).

All of it replaced with a socialist purgatory in which everyone is equally pathetic, hopeless and useless.

The whole conspiracy has become quite transparent and grimly boring. Luckily, one garbage movie isn’t going to change the overwhelming trend, which is the slow but steady decline of left-wing insanity. Nothing they are doing is hidden from us. We see it all, and in the long run, they’re going to lose. It’s inevitable.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 23:25

China Plans Planetary Defense Test By Slamming Mach 26 Spacecraft Into Asteroid

Zero Hedge -

China Plans Planetary Defense Test By Slamming Mach 26 Spacecraft Into Asteroid

A new paper under peer review by the Chinese-language Journal of Deep Space Exploration lays out an ambitious plan to crash a spacecraft at Mach 26, or 20,000 mph, into a near-Earth asteroid to test new planetary defenses.

The South China Morning Post reports that a team led by Li Mingtao, chief scientist for planetary defense at the China National Space Administration, is planning a mission even more ambitious than NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART).

That mission would slam a spacecraft into 2015 XF261, an asteroid estimated to be about 30 meters wide, in either 2029 or 2030.

"Dart was the first to demonstrate asteroid deflection by kinetic impact in space, but it did not directly change an asteroid's orbit around the sun relative to Earth, making it different from a real planetary-defense scenario," the researchers wrote in the report.

The planned impact would be nearly 50% faster than NASA’s 2022 DART, which hit the asteroid Dimorphos at 6.1 kilometers per second, or about Mach 18.

According to the paper, the mission calls for two spacecraft: one interceptor and one observation spacecraft, which would use a Venus gravity assist before rendezvousing with the target. It would deploy a small probe to monitor the collision and measure changes to the asteroid's orbit, shape, surface, and internal structure.

"Focusing on China's first asteroid-defense demonstration and verification mission, planned for implementation before 2030, this paper systematically reviews the frontier scientific questions in kinetic-impact asteroid defense to support mission design, implementation, and preliminary scientific research," the researchers said.

If successful, the test would become China's first end-to-end demonstration of an operational planetary-defense system. It will help scientists better understand how – and when – a kinetic impactor spacecraft could be used to deflect an Earth-bound asteroid.

Meanwhile, SpaceX will launch the NEO Surveyor asteroid-detection telescope no earlier than September 2027, which will discover and monitor most of the potentially hazardous asteroids and comets that come within 30 million miles of Earth's orbit.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 23:00

Will The Supreme Court Legalize Home Distilling?

Zero Hedge -

Will The Supreme Court Legalize Home Distilling?

Authored by Andrew M. Grossman & Robert Alt via RealClearPolicy,

Ohioan John Ream is an accomplished aerospace engineer and brewery owner. He would like to try his hand at making Bourbon. However, federal law prohibits distilling spirited beverages at home. On Monday, he filed a petition in the Supreme Court of the United States asking it to hear his case, which raises important questions about the limits of federal power.

Home distilling is, of course, as American as apple pie, and certainly a lot older. George Washington's Mount Vernon estate featured a distillery that, by 1799, was producing more than 10,000 gallons of whiskey per year. Nonetheless, Congress barred distilling inside any "dwelling house" or "shed, yard, or inclosure connected with a dwelling house" in what was, by all indications, a sop to the temperance movement. Later, Prohibition killed off what remained of craft spirits production.

The home-distilling ban ultimately survived both Prohibition and repeal, along with the distilled-spirits tax. Under the law, distilling, or even owning a set-up still, in a prohibited location like a home is punishable by fines, property forfeiture, and imprisonment. Given the draconian penalties, it's little surprise that hobby distilling has floundered while craft brewing and small-batch winemaking, both of which the law allows, have flourished.

Mr. Ream filed a lawsuit in federal court challenging whether that disparity has any lawful basis. The federal government, after all, possesses only the limited powers specified in the constitutional text. States, meanwhile, retain broad authority to legislate for the public good. This vertical separation of powers between the federal government and the states promotes accountability, responsiveness, and ultimately individual freedom.

Or it would, if the Court hadn't refashioned the Constitution's Commerce Clause, which authorizes Congress to "regulate Commerce...among the several States," and had long been understood to reach only interstate trade and the channels of such trade. But in the 1942 Wickard v. Filburn ruling, the Supreme Court eviscerated such limitations. At issue was a Soviet-inspired law capping wheat production to "rationalize" the agricultural sector and, by limiting its volume, drive up prices. Roscoe Filburn was an Ohio farmer who exceeded the imposed cap and grew enough wheat to feed both his family and the animals on his farm. The Court held that Congress may regulate any activity that, in aggregate, has a substantial effect on interstate commerce. Because widespread home-production of wheat would prevent Congress from regulating interstate prices, Congress could therefore restrict home production as part of its price-regulation scheme.

For the six decades following Wickard, the Court demurred in enforcing the Commerce Clause's limits. But by the mid-1990s, the Court appeared ready to chart a new course. First, it struck down the Gun-Free School Zones Act in a 1995 decision, United States v. Lopez, reasoning that merely carrying a gun near a school was too attenuated from interstate commerce to substantially affect it. Then the Court doubled down in United States v. Morrison (2000), which held unconstitutional a federal statute authorizing lawsuits by victims of gender-motivated violence. Morrison pared back Wickard's aggregation principle, suggesting that it applies only to inherently economic activities, and refused to defer to Congress's view on whether local activities substantially affect interstate commerce. Legal observers proclaimed a nascent "federalism revolution."

It didn't last. The promise of Lopez and Morrison was cut short by a 2005 decision, Gonzales v. Raich, upholding the Controlled Substances Act's prohibition on the home cultivation and consumption of marijuana subject to state regulation. Going well beyond Wickard, Raich applied its aggregation principle to noncommercial activity and adopted the maximally deferential "rational basis" standard for assessing Congress's need to regulate non-interstate activities. Taken on its own terms, Raich all but declares that anything goes with regard to regulation under the Commerce Clause.

One doubts that is the view of the current Court. Justice Thomas is the sole holdover from Raich, from which he dissented. His opinion explained how, if the Raich majority were right, then "the Federal Government is no longer one of limited and enumerated powers." Chief Justice Roberts wielded that same logic in his opinion holding that Obamacare's "individual mandate" to purchase health insurance was not authorized by the Commerce Clause, and the dissent joined by Justices Thomas and Samuel Alito reasoned similarly. Although the justices appointed by President Trump have not been afforded the occasion to opine on the Commerce Clause's limits, all three take seriously the Constitution's original meaning, its structural features, and the enumeration of powers as a constraint on federal power. Expect them to be more skeptical of assertions of federal authority than was the Raich majority.

John Ream's current challenge to the home-distilling ban takes aim at the excesses of Raich, and would be a meaningful first step toward rekindling the federalism revolution.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit upheld the home-distilling prohibition, ruling that the ban, while not a tax, "is a necessary and proper means of collecting the federal excise tax on spirits," because stills could be hidden within homes in order to evade taxation.

The more defensible view on this same matter was expressed in a U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit decision by Judge Edith Jones issued eleven days earlier. Far from furthering collection of the tax, the ban serves to "reduce revenue by preventing individuals from making distilled spirits" otherwise subject to taxation. It would be improper to allow Congress to "criminalize nearly any at-home conduct only because it has the possibility of concealing taxable activity."

The split between the Fifth and Sixth Circuits on the home-distilling ban's constitutionality is reason enough for the Supreme Court to take Ream's case, resolve this conflict, and provide national uniformity in the law. But there's also a need for further clarity on the Commerce Clause and Raich's continued viability. Given the massive growth of the federal government and its intrusion into every facet of modern life, there are few issues more important or pressing for the Court's consideration.

Andrew M. Grossman and Robert Alt represent John Ream in his litigation and also the plaintiffs who prevailed before the Fifth Circuit. Mr. Alt is President and CEO of The Buckeye Institute, where Mr. Grossman is a Senior Legal Fellow.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 22:35

Mapping Americans' Per Capita Health Care Spending By State

Zero Hedge -

Mapping Americans' Per Capita Health Care Spending By State

Health care represents a major share of consumer spending in America, but the amount spent per resident varies considerably by location.

New data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis highlights the differences in per-capita health care spending across the country in 2024.

The map below, via Visual Capitalist's Srijaa Chatterjee, ranks every state using the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures by State data from the BEA. Figures are reported in current dollars and allocated according to residents’ state of residence.

Which States Spend the Most on Health Care?

Below is a ranking of states based on per-person health care spending:

Rank State Per-Capita Health Care Spending 1 Alaska $14,044 2 District of Columbia $13,865 3 South Dakota $12,451 4 New York $12,221 5 West Virginia $12,055 6 Delaware $11,987 7 Massachusetts $11,985 8 North Dakota $11,667 9 Vermont $11,493 10 Indiana $11,071 11 California $11,054 12 Maine $10,913 13 New Hampshire $10,682 14 Connecticut $10,639 15 Minnesota $10,567 16 New Jersey $10,468 17 Pennsylvania $10,262 18 Ohio $10,202 19 Nebraska $10,192 20 Louisiana $10,148 21 Wisconsin $10,079 22 Missouri $10,036 23 Kentucky $9,964 24 Oregon $9,931 25 Illinois $9,895 26 Rhode Island $9,864 27 Hawaii $9,808 28 Montana $9,747 29 Washington $9,693 30 Wyoming $9,640 31 Florida $9,545 32 Maryland $9,456 33 Virginia $9,123 34 Kansas $9,066 35 Oklahoma $9,052 36 Michigan $9,023 37 Colorado $8,871 38 Tennessee $8,761 39 North Carolina $8,744 40 Georgia $8,680 41 Iowa $8,660 42 Arkansas $8,562 43 Arizona $8,556 44 New Mexico $8,469 45 Mississippi $8,135 46 Idaho $8,078 47 Alabama $7,980 48 Texas $7,807 49 South Carolina $7,741 50 Nevada $7,536 51 Utah $7,233

Alaska spent nearly twice as much per resident on health care as Utah in 2024.

Several Northeastern states, along with South Dakota and Washington, D.C., also ranked near the top. Meanwhile, much of the Mountain West and South recorded below-average spending.

Why Do Some States Spend More Than Others?

Higher spending does not necessarily mean residents receive more medical care.

Numerous studies have found that differences in prices, especially for hospital and physician services, explain much more of the variation in U.S. health spending than differences in how often people use care. Administrative costs, provider wages, and regional labor markets also play major roles.

State-specific factors matter as well. Alaska’s remote geography and limited provider network make delivering care significantly more expensive, while states with older populations often spend more because seniors tend to use more medical services.

Broader insurance coverage can also increase the share of care captured in personal consumption expenditures.

Health Care Spending Continues to Climb

Nationally, health care expenditures continue to rise.

CMS projects U.S. health spending will approach $9 trillion annually by 2034, driven by increased enrollment in Medicare and Medicaid, along with continued growth in health care prices. Despite already spending more per person than any comparable high-income country, the U.S. is expected to devote an even larger share of its economy to health care over the next decade.

International comparisons show the U.S. spends substantially more on health care than other high-income countries, largely because medical services cost more rather than because Americans use dramatically more care.

As national spending continues to rise, the nearly twofold gap between states highlights how geography remains a major factor in what Americans ultimately spend on health care.

If you enjoyed this visualization, check out Americans Pay More for Healthcare, Yet Have Shorter Life Expectancy on the Voronoi app, where you can discover thousands of data-driven charts from trusted sources covering health, economics, markets, and more.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 22:10

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