Trump Admin To Focus More On Northern Border Security Over Next 2 Years: Homan

Authored by Timothy Frudd and Jan Jekielek via The Epoch Times,

White House border czar Tom Homan plans to put more focus on security at the northern border during the last two years of President Donald Trump's administration.

In an interview airing on Sept. 26, Homan told Epoch Times senior editor Jan Jekielek that the U.S. - Canada border is a national security vulnerability and could receive greater attention after the administration beefed up security on the border with Mexico.

"The next two years, I'm really concentrating on the northern border," he said. "The southern border is the highest security we've ever had."

Homan said: "Now that we have the money and the time ... I think we need to dedicate more resources to the northern border, whether it's manpower, technology, [or] infrastructure."

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) recorded 563 total apprehensions along the northern border in August and 586 in July.

The United States and Canada share more than 5,500 miles of border.

Homan said that security at the northern border has not been ignored, but that the Trump administration concentrated its efforts on the southern border because "you send the firemen where the biggest fire is."

Last month, CBP announced that daily apprehensions at the southern border were 94 percent lower than under the Biden administration.

Noting a pattern of decline in illegal border crossings and apprehensions, CBP said the border was "more secure than at any point in history."

Homan told Jekielek that since the southern border is now under control, the administration needs to begin "amping up the northern border," which he described as a "huge national security vulnerability."

"Canada's immigration laws are very lax," he said. "[It] doesn't take a lot to get into Canada."

Citing intelligence reports and personal experience, Homan said national security threats can enter Canada and then cross into the United States a lot easier than directly entering the United States.

Homan also said that drug trafficking along the northern border is another issue for both the United States and Canada.

The U.S. government has been working with Indian reservations on the American side of the border to increase drug enforcement, which he said was a problem.

The White House border czar suggested that cooperation with Canada is "one of the biggest things" needed for effective security along the northern border.

"I think the United States and Canada both want ... [to] shut down cross-border crime because it's not good for either country," he said.

"I think we're both concerned with shutting down the criminal element, shutting down the drugs, and illegal immigration, especially those who pose a threat to our nations."

Homan told Jekielek that he visited all the northern border sectors over the past three months and that the individual areas have different requests for security improvements.

They included additional boots on the ground, technology, drones, air assets, infrastructure, and barriers, he said.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Northern Border Security Enhancement and Review Act on Sept. 16.

The bill would require the Department of Homeland Security to assess northern border threats, update the department's northern border strategy, and provide relevant oversight information to Congress.

It would also require CBP's Air and Marine Operations to develop performance measures regarding efforts to secure the border between ports of entry.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 09:35

Nvidia Launches New Tool To Shut Down Rogue Agents, Unveils $150 Billion Stock Buyback, Largest Ever

Perhaps Jensen Huang was getting tired of seeing charts like this, showing that his stock is up "only" 20% in 2026 (and has gone nowhere since May) while the rest of the AI ecosystem keeps rising...

... so going into the last week of them month, the billionaire CEO took matters into his own hands and amid a flurry of news that OpenAI agents had breached many more systems than previously revealed, including US government platforms, leading the company to pause training of its latest AI models, Nvidia introduced a new double-layered artificial intelligence security system that it says would’ve prevented the recent high-profile breach of Hugging Face by OpenAI’s AI models.

Today, with over 100 industry partners, we introduced the NVIDIA Open Agent Safety Platform, bringing together OpenShell and Sentry.

Artificial intelligence is extraordinary technology that will advance discovery, productivity, security, health, and prosperity for generations to… pic.twitter.com/dReAxwpRUn

— Jensen Huang (@JensenHuang) September 28, 2026

The semiconductor giant, which has been rapidly expanding its product lineup beyond chips, is rolling out two open-source software security tools - OpenShell and Sentry - that can be run on its hardware (of course, after all those NVDA chips won't sell themselves) and are called the NVIDIA Open Agent Safety Platform.  They’re designed to control what AI agents can access in real time and shut them down when they break the rules.

If cutting-edge labs had been using this technology to evaluate their AI models early on, it could have warded off the Hugging Face attack, Justin Boitano, Nvidia’s vice president of enterprise AI, said during a briefing with reporters ahead of Monday’s announcement. “From what we know, this new security platform could have stopped the breach,” he said. 

As Bloomberg notes, misconduct by autonomous agents, including the Hugging Face incident in July, has roiled the AI industry and led to calls to slow down work on the technology. With the new product dubbed the Open Agent Safety Platform, Nvidia is offering a way to prevent breaches without curbing AI development. Jensen Huang, has repeatedly downplayed the risk of AI slipping out of human control.

Boitano didn’t comment on whether OpenAI or rival Anthropic PBC have plans to use its new system to monitor their training runs, deferring to the companies.

In recent days, Huang has cast safety concerns as an engineering challenge, rather than something that requires more regulation or global coordination. He joined US President Donald Trump in pushing back on assertions from some AI developers that the technology could lead to human extinction, but he also insisted that AI must be rigorously safety-tested. 

Huang’s engineering solution to the AI safety problem has two parts: OpenShell, a software product that Nvidia already previewed at its hallmark technology-focused conference in March, can run on Nvidia’s Vera central processing units. It enables users to set rules for what AI agents can access and enforce them in real time. The software is open source, meaning it can be used and adapted freely.

Nvidia Sentry, meanwhile, is a new product that can run on the chipmaker’s BlueField data processing units. It’s designed to provide an extra layer of AI monitoring that polices agents and intervenes to isolate any that act suspiciously, the company said.

“We believe this added security layer will allow the industry to test even the most advanced AI systems safely,” Boitano said of the Sentry product. “It can quarantine a suspicious agent in milliseconds.”

Nvidia agreed earlier this month to acquire Hugging Face, a platform for open-source AI models and related software, for about $13 billion. 

OpenAI’s recent incidents — including a breach of an Australian government system, as well as attempts to access dozens of US government and university websites — happened when its models escaped testing environments that were supposed to be secure. As the problems proliferated, OpenAI said late Friday it would pause training of its most capable AI models. Back in July, Anthropic also disclosed that its agents broke out of what was supposed to be an isolated testing space.

And just in case the announcement wasn't a sufficiently strong catalyst to push the stock price higher, shortly after the report Nvidia increased the size of its share buyback plan by $150 billion, increasing the total remaining amount authorized to $235 billion. The buyback beats Apple’s record $110bn, set in 2024, for the largest in US corporate history. 

Nvidia will complete the buyback through fiscal 2028, the Santa Clara, California-based company said in a statement on Monday. 
The AI boom has made Nvidia the world’s most valuable company and the chipmaker’s shares have jumped 20% this year. In August, the company projected sales growth of 70% for the next fiscal year and Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang has worked to tamp down concerns about an AI bubble. 

“Nvidia’s growth is being driven by a once-in-a-generation platform shift to AI and accelerated computing,” Huang said in the statement. “This authorization reflects our confidence in the long-term opportunity ahead.”

Shares rose 1.3% to $228 in premarket trading in New York. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 09:16

Futures Slide As Oil Jumps, Bond Selloff Resumes After Trump Spurns Iran Offer

US futures are lower with Tech underperforming, alongside a drop in treasuries, as fading hopes for an imminent breakthrough in the Iran war sent oil prices higher and reignited worries that inflation is heating up. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures are down around 0.5% with Nasdaq futures sliding by 0.8% as semis and memory stocks underpeform the group. Defensives are leading cyclicals with credit cards, defense, energy, insurance, and restaurants acting as pockets of strength. Oil is sharply higher after Iran stuck to its seven-day proposal for reopening the crucial Strait of Hormuz, saying it won’t soften its conditions, while Donald Trump sent mixed signals about his willingness to reach a deal. He told Axios that Tehran has overplayed its hand but added that he expects negotiations to resume this week. Adding to tensions, UK police are investigating a potential terror plot after five men were arrested near an air base used in US strikes against Iran. The jump in oil has puled bond yields 4-7 bps higher as the curve flattens, the 10Y trading at 5.21% after hitting a new multi-decade high of 5.23% earlier. The DXY dollar index is higher despite weakness in USD/JPY and GBP/USD. Commodities are mixed with energy leading, metals under pressure dragged by precious which appears to be driven by temporary higher margin requirements in China for Golden Week; ags are lower. More than a dozen Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week beginning Monday, and heavy US economic slate includes September employment report Friday. Today's US economic data slate includes only September Dallas Fed manufacturing activity at 10:30 a.m. Fed speakers include Bowman (8:15 a.m.), Cook (1:25 p.m.) and Barkin (1:30 p.m.).  

In premarket, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Nvidia (NVDA) climbs 0.9% after its board authorized an additional $150 billion under the company’s existing share repurchase program, increasing the total remaining amount authorized to $235 billion (Meta Platforms (META) -2.5%, Alphabet (GOOGL) -1%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.7%, Tesla (TSLA) -0.5%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.5%, Apple (AAPL) -0.3%)

• Precious metals miners are broadly lower, following a drop in gold and silver prices as persistent tensions in the Middle East push up government bond yields and dent the appeal of non-yielding metals.
• Shares of oil majors rise.
• Kodiak Sciences (KOD) jumps 66% after saying the company has met key endpoints for both Zenkuda and tabirafusp-ted in the Phase 3 study in patients with wet age-related macular degeneration.
• NetEase ADRs (NTES) rise 4% after Morgan Stanley names it top pick among peers, expecting the firm’s new Ananta game to become a blockbuster launch and a core growth driver next year.
• SK Hynix ADRs (SKHY) drop 3% as reports of subsidiary Solidigm’s IPO plans trigger concerns over the rationale behind the move.
• Snowflake (SNOW), a maker of software that helps organize and analyze corporate data in the cloud, falls 4% as the company intends to offer $3.5 billion of convertible senior notes.
• Teleflex (TFX) inches 1.4% higher after BofA Global Research upgraded the medical device supplier to buy, citing upside to earnings.

In other corporate news, Boeing identified an issue with the 737 Max jet’s navigation system that could increase pilot workload during landing and may delay the arrival of its latest narrowbody models. ExxonMobil agreed to pump oil and natural gas from Azerbaijan’s shale fields as the Texas energy giant takes its fracking expertise overseas. McDonald’s faces a key challenge in winning back the cost-conscious diners who believe its menu has become too expensive.

Investors are navigating geopolitical risks and growing price pressures even as corporate profitability remains robust and major economies show resilience. For now, oil is keeping bond yields near multi-year highs, with the pressure from rates feeding through to other asset classes. Stock futures are lower after a weekend of largely negative Middle East headlines revived inflation worries. In big AI news this morning, Nvidia introduced a new double-layered AI security system designed to stop AI agents from going awry; this was followed by an announcement of a $150 billion stock buybacks, the biggest in history; the news sent the stock in the green after sliding earlier.  Oil is rising again after Iran said it won’t soften its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump sent mixed messages about reaching a deal.

“A lot is moving against equities at the moment: oil is on the rise and bond yields are going through the roof,” said Laurent Lamagnere at AlphaValue. “It’s quite hard for me to be optimistic.”

The recent spike in yields means that month-end reallocations by balanced US equity-bond funds could weigh on stocks in the near term, according to Christopher Dembik, senior investment adviser at Pictet Asset Management. 

“Around $25 billion to $30 billion worth of equities are expected to be sold, with the proceeds reinvested in bonds,” Dembik said. “This could put some downward pressure on US large caps over the next few trading sessions.”

Nvidia’s new security tools are designed to control what AI agents can access in real time and shut them down when they break the rules. That may calm nerves over the technology following following fresh disclosures about breaches. OpenAI said another agentic AI system that was being trained in what was supposed to be a secured environment was able to gain access to the web to reach a third-party chatbot.

Meanwhile, with so much going on - from AI euphoria and fear to geopolitical drama - Bloomberg notes that traders are increasingly looking at dispersion trade opportunities for winners and losers. The trend is likely to continue, with JPMorgan derivatives strategists highlighting that midterms could catalyze single stock volatility. They recommend buying VIX October call spreads, noting that the VIX curve is well below prior midterm setups.

Goldman strategists also see potential for more volatility ahead, enabled by narrow market breadth. A measure of S&P 500 breadth has reached the lowest level since the dot-com bubble, they say, with the strength of the AI trade masking broader index weakness.
There’s not much on the macro calendar today, but the rest of the week will be busy, with core PCE on Wednesday, ISM’s manufacturing survey on Thursday and payrolls due Friday. Bessent said on Fox News at the weekend that Fed policymakers should keep an “open mind” on interest rates.

Elsewhere in tech, SK Hynix is considering a potential US listing of its Solidigm flash data storage subsidy. The Chinese government signaled it may allow companies such as Alibaba and ByteDance to buy Nvidia’s new RTX Pro 5500 chips, The Information reported. And Anthropic CEO was said to meet Trump on Sunday evening, bringing together two men at opposite ends of the AI safety debate.

The growing prospect of rate hikes saw gold extend its losses for September to more than 6%. Rising yields have dimmed the allure of the precious metal, which pays no interest. Investors see about a 70% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next month, up from about 65% on Friday.

In trade news, the US and China detailed a plan to cut tariffs on about $30 billion of imports from each country, following last week’s summit. Trump said he is looking “very seriously” at implementing a US ban on diesel exports to combat high prices. 

Data due later this week are likely to give investors more reason to worry that price pressures are building. A report on Wednesday is forecast to show a 0.5% increase in August inflation-adjusted personal spending, which would be the biggest advance in just over a year. The release will also include the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges. Both the personal consumption expenditures price index and the core measure are projected to quicken in August from a month earlier. Friday’s payrolls data will probably show that hiring remained solid.

European stocks are resilient in the face of higher energy prices with the Stoxx 600 up 0.2%. In the UK, shares in homebuilders surged after the government announced a loan program to help first-time buyers. Taylor Wimpey Plc rose 12%, while Persimmon Plc rallied 15% and Barratt Redrow Plc advanced 12%. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Shares in UK homebuilders surge after the government announces a loan program to help first-time buyers purchase new-build homes. Taylor Wimpey rises as much as 23%, the steepest gain since May 2009
• Suedzucker shares rally as much as 7.9%, the most in six months, after the agri-food business delivered results ahead of expectations and raised its revenue and earnings guidance for the year
• Dormakaba rises as much as 6.7%, the biggest jump since April 2025, after the security system maker was upgraded at Jefferies. Analysts say the de-rating has gone too far and that the upcoming capital markets day could provide a catalyst
• Bridgepoint Group shares rise as much as 5.4% after Citi increased its price target on the private equity firm by a fifth, having adjusted its models to reflect the acquisition of US real estate investment platform Kayne
• Fagron climbs as much as 7.6%, the most since mid-February, as ING Bank lifts its price target on the pharmaceutical company and adds to its Benelux Favourites list
• Keller Group rises as much as 5.3% as RBC says the ground engineering specialist’s announcement of a $650m contract variation order on the I-40 highway reconstruction project will help to de-risk growth in the US
• Maire rises as much as 4.5%, the most in a month, as Citi initiates on the Italian engineering group with a buy rating, saying it’s attractively levered to rising global gas investment
• Irish Residential Properties REIT jumps by 24%, propelling shares to their highest level since 2022, after the firm received takeover offers from Baring International Investment. Shares are still trading below the offer price
• European gambling companies’ shares slide after Brazil issued a provisional measure on Friday banning all forms of online gambling. Entain said it expects underlying Ebitda to hit the lower-end of its guided range following the ban
• European miners dropped as copper and other base metals retreated after data showed slower growth in industrial profits in China
• Danieli shares fall as much as 13%, the most since April 4, after the steel-making-equipment company reported full-year results and issued guidance that Banca Akros described as more prudent than expected

Asian stocks fell, with the tech sector leading the losses, as an increase in oil prices spurred concern over inflation and sent bond yields higher. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5% following a 1.2% gain last week. Chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix were the biggest drags, losing over 4% each, as trading in Korean markets resumed after holidays. For SK Hynix, media reports of a potential listing of its US subsidiary added to worries over the firm’s complex ownership structure. The Kospi lost about 2%. Tech stocks also slumped in China, dragging the CSI 300 Index to a one-year low. Shares of semiconductor firms slid following a report that the nation may allow local firms such as Alibaba to buy Nvidia’s new chips. Meanwhile, shares of optical-component makers declined after a proposed US bill targeted Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink.

“Asian markets start on the back foot given the gap higher in global oil prices to kick off the week,” said Kyle Rodda, senior analyst at Capital.com. “Focus will turn to US macroeconomic fundamentals and Federal Reserve interest-rate expectations as the week unfolds.”

In FX, USD/JPY was knocked lower after a warning from Japan’s top currency official. It’s been an ugly session for precious metals with spot gold and silver under relentless pressure, lower by 3.3% and 5% respectively.

In rates, US bonds are getting sold across the curve. The 10-year yield is up 7bps and at its highest level since 2007. UK and German equivalents are up 5bps. Treasury futures begin the US day near session lows, tracking losses for European bonds amid a sharp rise in oil prices after US President Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. US yields are cheaper by 4bp to 8bp across the curve with belly-led losses flattening 5s30s spread by 3bp; 10-year is higher by around 7bp at 5.23% with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by around 2bp. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of names so far. For this week dealers anticipate around $50 billion, including a Paramount debt package that may involve $32 billion of bonds. Treasury auctions resume next week with 3-year new issue and 10- and 30-year reopenings. More than a dozen Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week beginning Monday, and heavy US economic slate includes September employment report Friday.   

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures rose as much as 4.5% amid standoff between Iran and US on ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude is up over 3% with Iran refusing to soften its conditions on Hormuz after the US rejected its latest reopening proposal. Bitcoin sheds 2.4%.

US economic data slate includes only September Dallas Fed manufacturing activity at 10:30 a.m. Also ahead this week are consumer confidence, JOLTS job openings, 2Q GDP revision, personal income and spending (with PCE price indexes) and ISM manufacturing. Fed speaker slate includes Bowman (8:15 a.m.), Cook (1:25 p.m.) and Barkin (1:30 p.m.).

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country is prepared to resume fighting with the United States but has not yet abandoned diplomacy after President Donald Trump publicly rejected a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. NBC
• Mediators are expected to hold separate talks with US and Iran on Monday or Tuesday, with Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi and Qatari mediators remaining in the US: RTRS
• Peace negotiators are pressing Iran to make a concession on its nuclear program to revive ceasefire talks with the U.S. after President Trump rejected Tehran’s truce proposal, in a race to stop the conflict from escalating back into all-out war. WSJ
• Trump announced that he approved new fuel economy standards that terminate former President Biden's EV mandate, while he said the new standards will take the waste out of building cars in the US, which means lower prices, and noted that more than USD 100bln is being invested in American autos under his administration: RTRS
• The US and China plan to cut tariffs on about $30 billion of imports from each other. Trump said he made “tremendous progress” with Xi Jinping at last week’s summit. BBG
• China’s industrial enterprises saw their earnings grow at the weakest since they fell last November, highlighting the limits of a recovery disproportionately driven by elevated oil costs and sectors linked to artificial intelligence. BBG
• Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said on Monday markets should take at face value the "very clear" message Tokyo and Washington delivered last week on the yen, ‌signalling his resolve to act against excessive falls in the currency. RTRS
• European natural gas moved higher as traders weighed the extension of a supply force majeure from Qatar against mixed signals on talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. BBG
• Nvidia introduced a new double-layered AI security system that it says would’ve prevented the recent high-profile breach of Hugging Face by OpenAI’s AI models. BBG
• The turbulence that has rocked private credit funds for the past year showed signs of easing in September, with the flood of redemption requests from retail investors slowing and performance improving. FT
• The Fed should keep an “open mind” on rates, Scott Bessent told Fox, arguing AI-driven productivity gains and deregulation will help contain inflation. He spoke ahead of a week of key data including consumer spending and nonfarm payrolls. Furthermore, he said that core inflation has been very stable and fell in recent months. BBG
• Trump said had an incredible meeting with Chinese President Xi, also noted that he's having dinner tonight with Anthropic's head at 10pm and will be meeting with Anthropic on Tuesday, adds Anthropic's Dario is very highly respected.
• US President Trump said he will talk about AI with Anthropic's CEO Amodei, who was having dinner at the White House on Sunday, while Trump said he would tell Amodei, "let's go, let's win."

Iran War

• US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated Iran wants to make a deal in which they open the strait immediately because it is losing so badly.
• US President Trump said he expects talks with Iran to resume this week even though he rejected Iran’s latest proposal, while he stated the conditions Iran wants are something the US may have agreed to around a year ago and that Tehran overplayed its hand, according to Axios.
• US President Trump said that as soon as the Iran war is over, which is soon, oil will drop, while he stated that they took out a record oil amount from Hormuz on Saturday night. Trump also stated that they will win against Iran in military and economic warfare, while he didn't want to say regarding striking Iran before the Midterms and noted that Iran inflation was at 318%.
• US President Trump told Chinese President Xi during the summit to stop supporting Iran, according to Axios on Friday, citing US Ambassador to Beijing Perdue.
• Iran's delegation in New York has no plans for talks with the US, according to a source close to the delegation cited by IRNA.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said they have seen the initial response from US President Trump to the 7-day ceasefire proposal, but are waiting to receive the official response via mediators, while he added that only a negotiated solution can get them out of this deadlock. Araghchi also stated that Iran's conditions are clear and that any move towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on these conditions being met.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he and Iranian President Pezeshkian did not come to New York to sell a war and that they came to forge peace, while he added that Iran remains steadfast in the face of any aggression even if it comes to an apocalyptic war, but is at the same time, ready for real diplomacy.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week mixed as higher oil prices spurred hawkish rate bets and following mixed geopolitical headlines over the weekend, in which US President Trump rejected Iran's proposal for a peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but expects talks to resume this week. ASX 200 traded higher with gains led by strength in the top-weighted financial sector, but with the upside capped heading into a widely anticipated rate hike by the RBA tomorrow. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with the index fading an initial rally amid higher yields and as participants also digested firmer-than-expected Services PPI data, while former BoJ official Momma touted the possibility of the central bank hiking rates again in October. KOSPI suffered on return from a 4-day closure with notable selling in the local tech behemoths. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the Hong Kong benchmark edged higher, while the mainland was heavily pressured at the start of a holiday-shortened trading week following a slowdown in Industrial Profits, while the PBoC's liquidity efforts and a US-China agreement for a USD 30bln reciprocal tariff reduction framework failed to spur risk appetite.

Top Asian News

• Australian Treasurer Chalmers confirmed Australia's 2025-2026 budget deficit was AUD 6bln less than forecast.
• Chinese Industrial Profits YY (Aug) 4.2% (prev. 11.2%).
• Chinese Industrial Profits (YTD) (Aug YY) 15.7% (Prev. 17.6%).
• Japanese Services PPI YY (Aug) 3.7% vs Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.6%).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) were broadly firmer this morning, but have come off best levels as energy benchmarks continue to rise and as yields remain elevated. European sectors hold a positive bias. Optimised Personal Care tops the pile, joined closely by Retail and Consumer Products. The downside resides Basic Resources, with the sector dented by continued pressure in the metals space amidst elevated yields and geopolitical uncertainty. Also towards the bottom is Tech, following the negative bias set out by SK Hynix (-5%) and Samsung (-5.4%) overnight. For the former, it was recently confirmed that SK Hynix’s unit Solidigm is aiming for a US IPO, which would see SK Hynix essentially sharing Solidigm's future earnings.

Top European News

• UK PM Burnham hinted regarding new taxes to pay for social care reform and confirmed he wants care for the elderly and infirm to operate on NHS principles, while he didn’t deny that this would be paid for with tax increases.
• UK PM Burnham insisted he can deliver a real change for people in the country despite the nation facing severe economic headwinds, while he acknowledged they are facing a challenging set of circumstances at the budget. It was also reported that Burnham announced a new help-to-buy scheme to get first-time buyers on the housing ladder.
• UK PM Burnham suggested he could block plans for a third runway at Heathrow Airport.
• British police arrested several suspects over a ‘major incident’ near an airbase used by the US, while US President Trump said the men arrested at the UK airbase were looking to do ‘big damage’.
• France is mulling a change to the way payroll tax deductions are calculated in its 2027 budget bill, which would effectively be a payroll tax increase for firms and could bring in an additional EUR 3bln-3.5bln.
• Germany’s North Rhine-Westphalia premier Wuest, who is a key figure in Chancellor Merz’s CDU, criticised the government regarding the pace of economic reforms and said delays in enacting legislation contributed to the party’s disastrous performance in regional elections this month.
• ECB’s Sleijpen said the Netherlands needs to keep government spending in check and that state debt will increase if they do nothing, while he warned it would be highly irresponsible to borrow more, which is also not good for inflation.
• Swedish Social Democrat leader Andersson said she will tell the parliament speaker she cannot form a government under the current circumstances.
• EU leaders are deadlocked over the next long term budget, Politico reported citing a German diplomatic cable; ahead of an October 15th meeting, a development that raises the prospect of there being no-deal by end-2026.

FX

• DXY is little changed overall, with the Buck caught between higher oil prices, yields and Fed tightening bets on one side, and notable JPY strength on the other (see below for more details). Friday’s hawkish Fed rhetoric remains on traders' minds, with Hammack saying policy needs to be restrictive to bring inflation lower and that she does not currently see policy as restraining the economy. DXY trades around the 101 mark in a current 100.98-101.20 range (vs 100.87-101.31 range on Friday). Note, month- and quarter-end flows are also coming into traders' views, with rebalancing likely to become more influential as month-end approaches.
• EUR/USD is modestly softer with little in the way of fresh bloc-specific drivers, leaving the pair largely at the whim of broader USD action but perhaps with some more influence from the GBP today. EUR/USD trades within a 1.1371-1.1391 range, with ECB's Lagarde due for a text release at 15:00 BST.
• GBP is modestly firmer against the USD despite some caution around the UK fiscal outlook. PM Burnham hinted at new taxes to fund social care reform and acknowledged challenging circumstances heading into the Budget, while also announcing a new help-to-buy scheme. The spending narrative is being treated cautiously, although the potential growth impulse is being taken at face value for now, with Chancellor Healey still to come at 12:00BST, speaking at the Labour conference. As such, the stable open for Gilts seemingly provided traders with some relief for now. Before that, on the BoE front, Ramsden is due for a text release on QT at 11:00BST. GBP/USD trades towards the top of a 1.3218-1.3273 range.
• JPY is the clear G10 outperformer, extending gains after Japan’s top FX official Mimura said authorities are not satisfied or reassured by recent Yen price action and are watching whether markets take their “clear message” at face value. Mimura also mentioned the BoJ’s shift towards rate hikes and the subsequent result of the narrowing of the US-Japan yield gap. USD/JPY fell from around 157.55 to 157.25 on the remarks, and continued to fall to a trough of 156.50.
• Japanese FX Official Mimura said they are closely watching to see if markets take the clear message they are giving at face value. Not satisfied with or reassured by recent JPY action. BoJ's clear shift onto a rate-hiking path is gradually narrowing the Japan-US yield gap. A clear message was sent to the US on rates.

Central Banks

• BoJ Minutes from July meeting stated members agreed financial conditions are accommodative and many members noted firms are steadily passing on rising raw material costs, keeping inflation elevated.
• BoE's Dhingra said that she is worried that high rates would hit investment and lower supply.
• PBoC to inject CNY 661bln via overnight reverse repos.
• PBoC injected CNY 139bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.40% and CNY 300bln via 14-day reverse repos with rate at 1.25%.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7399 vs Exp. 6.7085 (prev. 6.7489).
• BoK said to closely monitor financial and forex markets.

Fixed Income

• A bearish start to the day, though only modestly so despite energy upside of in excess of USD 2.00/bbl. USTs hit a 104-15+ low in the European morning.
• The main updates being the US President rejecting the Iranian proposal, but despite that he expects talks with Iran to recommence this week. From Iran, the delegation in the US reportedly has no plans to speak with the US on such matters, though Iranian President Pezeshkian has said they remain ready for dialogue.
• The action has lifted yields across the globe and the curve, with the US curve modestly flatter given the near-term implications for energy, inflation and by extension the Fed from the lack of concrete progress on Hormuz. The US 10yr yield remains at a c. 5.23% recent peak, with both the short- and long-end of the curve also at/near multi-year highs.
• Gilts opened with modest pressure given the above, though the UK focus point has been the weekend’s briefings from UK PM Burnham and, to a lesser extent, Chancellor Healey. The Chancellor added little, but we await more detail from his 12:00BST speech today. From Burnham, he outlined reform to the housing market, hinted at a tax increase to fund his social care ambitions and seemingly didn’t rule out an early election; though, on the latter, the inference is more from the tone of the Kuenssberg interview than anything he explicitly said.
• Net, the above has been taken in relative stride by the market, with the pressure seen in fitting with EGBs and no further bearish impulse coming from the PM’s comments.
• Bunds in-fitting, at a 119.22 low with downside of 10 ticks at most. Reacting to the upside seen in global energy benchmarks and further gains for TTF on the Middle East uncertainty. Action that continues to keep the ECB’s October meeting live, and increases the odds of a back-to-back hike after September’s move.
• Japan Finance Ministry proposes the cut to mid-term JGB liquidity auctions, given improved JGB market functions; proposes reducing 5-11 year liquidity enhancement bond supply.
• Australia sold AUD 800mln 3.75% April 2037 bonds b/c 4.88, avg. yield 5.429%.

Commodities

• WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures are firmer after gapping higher at the open as US-Iran tensions somewhat picked up over the weekend (see below for details), with no notable de-escalation progress to report thus far following the UNGA. WTI Nov trades within a USD 92.68-95.75/bbl range, while Brent Dec trades within a USD 97.62-100.94/bbl range. Dutch TTF is firmer as renewed Middle East tensions add to European supply concerns, with the EU warning member states of a potential energy price crisis and urging them to continue filling storage while considering measures to curb demand. TTF trades towards the top end of a EUR 72.30-74.33/MWh range.
• Precious metals are sharply lower this morning as the renewed rise in oil prices adds to inflation concerns, pushing yields higher and reinforcing expectations for further Fed tightening. Spot gold has fallen through USD 4,200/oz and trades near the bottom of a USD 4,140-4,286/oz range. Spot silver underperforms to a greater extent, falling almost 5% at the time of writing to around USD 61.00/oz within a USD 60.95-64.26/oz range.
• Base metals are also softer amid the higher yield environment and broader selling across metals, while weaker Chinese data adds another headwind ahead of a holiday-shortened weekend for China.. Chinese Industrial Profits growth slowed to 4.2% Y/Y in August from 11.2%, with YTD growth easing to 15.7% from 17.6%. 3M LME copper resides at the bottom of a 14,376.58-14,612.00/t range.
• Over the weekend, Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran said any reopening remains contingent on its conditions being met and its UN delegation reportedly has no plans for talks with the US. Trump nonetheless expects negotiations to resume this week, with the Iranian President this morning also supporting talks. Further, there was renewed Houthi activity against Saudi Arabia, with explosions reported in Riyadh and disruption at King Khalid International Airport. Traders are also mindful on US diesel policy after Trump said he is “thinking very seriously” about an export ban, despite earlier White House assurances that one would not be implemented.
• Qatar has reportedly extended its force majeure on LNG shipments to Asia and Europe by another month, Bloomberg reported.
• India Trade Minister Goyal said India is working with the UAE to expand strategic petroleum reserves.
• Libya’s NOC Chairman said the Sharara oil field is producing more than 300k BPD.
• Qatar to extend force majeure on LNG deliveries to Pakistan through November.

Trade/Tariffs

• China Commerce Ministry said we look forward to expanding China-US collaboration in the coal sector and that the sides agreed to form an agricultural working group, have also agreed to set up communication channel for AI incidents. China will review and approve applications from financial service institutions worldwide, including those with US capital, to operate and open branches. China expects US to offer fair, transparent, and stable policy environment for Chinese financial institutions. Both sides agree to keep talks on boosting China-US flights and related issues. Trade truce with US will remain in place through January 2027.
• White House said US and China confirmed agreement regarding a USD 30bln vs USD 30bln reciprocal tariff cut. said:. Will consider certain US products for import into China and China is to import US coal in 2027-2028. China and US launch AI dialogue under the trade mechanism.
• US trade sources tell FBN there will be historic purchases announced in agreement with China. Both sides will also exempt more agriculture products, medical supplies, and lo-tech electronics from additional tariffs.

Geopolitics: Russia

• EU's Foreign Policy Chief Kallas said that intelligence reported indicate that Russia is planning further sabotage; called for focus on addressing gaps in Europe's defence capabilities. EU’s Naval Aspides Mission requires more naval assets to be operational, adding that the need is bigger than it has ever been.
• EU countries consider NATO-style joint responses to Russian hybrid attacks which have included drone attacks, bombs and arson, according to FT.
• US President Trump said he told Ukrainian President Zelensky to take it easy on refineries.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said on Sunday morning that Russian strikes overnight killed four in Ukraine and damaged a data centre in Kyiv.
• EU countries consider NATO-style joint responses to Russian hybrid attacks which have included drone attacks, bombs and arson, according to FT.

Geopolitics: Iran

• Iranian President Pezeshkian said regional states can safeguard their own security, and he denied Iran's direct involvement in Yemen, describing the situation as unrelated to Iran, but stated that Iran is ready to help resolve the conflict and urged Houthis and Saudi Arabia to enter talks instead of escalating.
• IRGC spokesman said not only is the Strait of Hormuz not open, but it is a hunting ground for the IRGC Navy against US submersibles.
• Iran army spokesman said Iran’s armed forces are prepared for any renewed US attacks after US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran.
• Local sources reported that a sea cruiser fired at a violating vessel in an unauthorised route of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Fars News.
• Saudi authorities suspended in-person classes in Riyadh for a week on Sunday, following reports the day before that Saudi air defences said they intercepted Houthi drones headed toward the capital and ballistic missiles targeting Khamis Mushait.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran remains ready for dialogue despite being attacked during previous talks, but pressure and attacks will not force Iran to surrender.
• Source said Iran is prepared to compromise on its nuclear programme but wants guarantees Israel will not attack again after a US deal, N12 reported.
• What Western media outlets are promoting regarding the negotiations is false news, reported Al Mayadeen citing high-ranking Iranian security source. The reason for the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the Americans' failure to fulfill their commitments. Iran has informed the American side of its seven conditions, and the ball is now in the American court. The Strait of Hormuz will not be opened through tweets or misleading news published by media outlets close to the White House.
• Iran Foreign Minister said we have not closed the door to diplomacy despite American violations; choice now rests with US. If the conditions are met, the Strait of Hormuz and maritime traffic can be reopened within 7 days. We will open the Strait of Hormuz on the sixth day of implementing the plan. We will return to negotiations with America on the seventh day of implementing the plan. The 7-day deadline begins as soon as the United States accepts the plan we proposed. Tehran will not yield to pressure or relinquish its sovereign rights. Plan's requirements are similar to those in the MoU with the US.
• Iran Foreign Minister said we are committed to protecting freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and its security cannot be restored through military blockade and escalation. We conveyed a message to America via Qatar, consisting of a 7-day plan. Our position is clear regarding the ongoing developments, particularly in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
• IRGC Spokesperson said we will not stop punishing the US until Iran's seven conditions are met; our missiles are capable of destroying America's multi-layered defenses, Fars reported.
• Iranian Real Admiral Siyari said they are fully in control of the Strait of Hormuz, Defa reported; "we act assertively in the north of the Sea of Oman and east of the Strait of Hormuz and will not allow anyone to attempt passage".
• Eight US Marines were injured two weeks ago when an Iranian cruise missile attacked the ship they were operating on in the Strait of Hormuz, according to US officials cited by NBC News.

Geopolitics: Other

• Yemeni sources say Armed Forces aircraft carried out several airstrikes on Houthi positions in Al-Rabeei, west of Taiz, Al Arabiya reported.
• Saudi artillery and missile attacks on the border county of Saada in Yemen, according to SNN.
• Saudi's Foreign Minister arrives in Washington to meet with US Secretary of State Rubio.
• Iraqi sources report suspension of flights at Erbil Airport in Iraq following reported of attack on separatist party headquarters, according to SNN.
• US President Trump administration officials said US has no plans to sell weapons to China after US ambassador to Beijing, Perdue, told an interviewer that President Trump at one point offered to sell US arms to Chinese President Xi, according to WSJ.
• Explosions reportedly heard in Erbil, northern Iraq, according to SNN.
• Several commercial aircraft were not being allowed to land at King Khalid International Airport in Saudi Arabia, following reported of explosions heard in Saudi Arabia.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu visited Abu Dhabi on Sunday and met with UAE's President, according to Axios.

US Event Calendar

• 10:30 am: United States Sep Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 7.75, prior 11.6

Central Bank speakers

• 8:15 am: United States Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Bank Supervision and Regulation
• 1:25 pm: United States Fed’s Cook Speaks on AI and Emerging Tech
• 1:30 pm: United States Fed’s Barkin in Fireside Chat

Main Rating Changes:

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

even though US-Iran talks could resume this week, there was little sign of a breakthrough over the weekend and bond yields and oil have climbed again this morning. Iran reiterated on Sunday that it would not soften its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insisting that Tehran would not back down from demands including sanctions relief, access to frozen assets and an end to US blockade measures. Meanwhile President Trump said he still expected negotiations to continue but rejected Iran's latest proposal as inadequate. So a stalemate but if you're looking for some positives it's that there does still seem to be a line of communication open.

10yr US yields are +3.8bps higher this morning with 2yr yields 4.6bps +higher.  Brent is up +2.58% to $107.01. The Nikkei is flat, while the Hang Seng (+0.64%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.36%) are higher but with S&P 500 (-0.36%) and Nasdaq 100 (-0.67%) futures lower amid fresh technology-sector weakness after OpenAI indicated it was pausing development of certain advanced AI models after agents have been reported to have gone rogue across a number of recent incidents. Elsewhere South Korea and China have caught down to losses towards the end of last week as they were closed on Friday. The KOSPI (-2.44%) and CSI 300 (-2.15%) are sharply lower as a result, also weighed down by some tech weakness. European equity futures are up around a third of a percent.

It's very busy week ahead with US payrolls (Friday) and PCE (Wednesday) blockbuster releases. The US ISM (Thursday) will attract outsized attention given the spectacular beat on the S&P PMI last week that sent 10yr US yields +15.2bps higher on the day. A huge move for such a report. 

Global inflation will also be in focus outside of the US August PCE report with flash September CPI releases across Europe (Tuesday/Wednesday) and Tokyo CPI (Friday) all due. In Asia, investors will also be watching Chinese PMIs (Wednesday), the BoJ’s Tankan survey and summary of opinions (Thursday), as well as the RBA decision (tomorrow) where the market prices in a 93% probability of a hike. All that around month and quarter end on Wednesday.

In the US, attention will increasingly turn towards Friday’s September payrolls report. Following August’s stronger-than-expected gain of 162k, our economists expect payrolls to rise by around 45k in September (Friday), with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% and average hourly earnings growth steady at +0.3% month-on-month. Recent labour market indicators have remained reasonably firm, although some moderation after August’s strength would be consistent with a labour market that is cooling only gradually.

Ahead of Friday’s payrolls release, labour market data will begin arriving tomorrow with the August JOLTS report, before the September ADP employment release on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims on Thursday. Together, these releases should help shape last minute expectations going into the official employment report. Note that last week saw claims at 197k, a rare dip below 200k.

Moving onto inflation, our economists expect the August core PCE deflator (Wednesday) to rise by +0.27% month-on-month, slightly above July’s pace. The report will be accompanied by personal income and spending data, where our economists expect gains of +0.5% and +0.6% respectively. Particular attention will be paid to the PCE release given the BEA’s annual benchmark revisions and methodology changes, which could alter the recent inflation profile and affect comparisons with previous months.

Elsewhere in the US, our economists expect the Conference Board consumer confidence index (tomorrow) to improve to 91.0 from 89.4, while the ISM manufacturing index (Thursday) is expected to rise to 55.1 from 54.6. Remember the S&P composite PMI hit 58.4 last week. We get the ISM services print next week. Wednesday’s final Q2 GDP release will also attract attention as it incorporates benchmark revisions that may reshape perceptions of recent growth trends. As we end the quarter, note that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is currently tracking at 5.02% for Q3.

Outside the US, European inflation data will dominate the calendar. Preliminary September CPI releases begin with Spain tomorrow, followed by Germany, France and Italy on Wednesday, before the Eurozone aggregate reading on Friday. Our economists expect Eurozone headline HICP inflation to print at 3.75% year-on-year, with core inflation at 2.53%. In Japan, today’s BoJ minutes from the July meeting will be followed by the Q3 Tankan survey and September meeting summary of opinions on Thursday, while our economists expect Friday’s Tokyo CPI report to show a further firming in underlying inflation. China’s September PMIs are due on Wednesday, while the RBA announces its latest policy decision tomorrow, where our economists expect a 25bp rate increase.

Recapping last week now and bond yields continued to rise as several hawkish headlines led to fresh pressure. One factor was ongoing Middle East concerns, though Brent crude (+0.43% on the week; -2.14% Friday to $104.32/bbl) pared back most of its weekly rise on Friday amid reporting that US and Iran officials had moved into detailed technical discussions during the New York talks. Enthusiasm has obviously been dented again over the weekend.

But on top of that, there were multiple strong data releases from around the world, which added to expectations for rate hikes in the months ahead. Among others, the US flash composite PMI for September hit a 5-year high of 58.4, whilst the Eurozone equivalent hit a 3-year high of 53.1. 

In the US, despite a partial pullback on Friday, the probability of a Fed hike in October climbed from 53% to 64% over the week. And in turn, the 10yr Treasury yield rose +16.6bps (+3.7bps Friday) to 5.16%, after hitting its highest level since 2007 on Thursday. There were even bigger milestones for the 30yr yield, which rose +16.5bps (+1.5bps Friday) to 5.49%. So that was its highest level since 2004, and also its biggest weekly jump since May. Elsewhere, the moves weren’t quite as big, but the 10yr bund yield still rose +8.3bps last week (+0.3bps Friday) to a post-2009 high of 3.60%.

Yet despite the rates selloff, the optimism on the growth side helped to sustain equities last week around the world. For instance, the S&P 500 was actually up +1.21% last week (+0.51% Friday), leaving the index within 1% of its record high. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX was up +0.50% (+0.35% Friday), and Japan’s Nikkei was up +2.07% (+1.30% Friday). That was supported by a rally among tech stocks, with the Magnificent 7 group up +3.04% (-0.03% Friday). 

When it came to other assets, the surge in Treasury yields and the hawkish Fed repricing meant the US Dollar was the strongest-performing G10 currency. Indeed, the dollar index was up +0.81% last week (-0.25% Friday). Meanwhile, gold prices fell -2.14% (+0.23% Friday), as higher real and nominal yields put downward pressure on precious metals as a non-interest-bearing asset. 

Finally, credit saw a sizeable sell-off, with both US IG (+5bps) and HY spreads (+27bps), as well as EUR IG (+3bps) and HY (+13bps), widening. For US HY that marked the biggest weekly widening in almost a year. So credit markets showing some signs of coming under strain from the rise in yields even as equities remained resilient.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 08:33

Saudi Arabia Restarts Critical Hormuz Bypass Pipeline

Saudi Arabia has resumed oil exports through its critical East-West pipeline, restoring access to Red Sea loading facilities that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reports. The restart coincides with Kpler data from late last week showing Hormuz oil flows have recovered to about two-thirds of prewar levels, suggesting a recovery in Gulf energy flows and an erosion of Tehran's leverage.

Overseas shipments have restarted, Bloomberg reported, citing a person with direct knowledge of the operation. Saudi Aramco began testing the pipeline and rebuilding pressure last week, aiming to resume meaningful flows by the weekend.

In a separate report last Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Aramco was working quickly to repair the damaged section of the pipeline after a drone attack destroyed a pumping station.

A successful restart of the pipeline, which can carry 7 million barrels of crude per day to Yanbu on the Red Sea while bypassing the Hormuz chokepoint, would likely provide welcome relief for Europe, which had crude cargoes for this month canceled because of the disruptions. The Saudis have already indicated a near-term resumption of crude loadings for Asian buyers.

With the East-West pipeline set to ramp up and the Saudis beginning to export crude from the Red Sea once again, independent oil research firm Commodity Context cited Kpler data over the weekend showing that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to roughly two-thirds of prewar levels, driven by a surge in Saudi exports.

On the diplomatic side, President Trump told reporters on the White House lawn over the weekend that he had rejected an Iranian proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and was open to resuming attacks on the Islamic Republic after the midterms.

Reporter: Will you strike Iran after the midterms?

Trump: I'm rejecting their deal. They want to make a deal where they open the Strait immediately because they're losing so badly.

They want to make a deal, and I think that's fine. I like making a deal, too, but that deal would… pic.twitter.com/87rKbDySLN

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 26, 2026

The key question is: What happens to Iran's oil export hub, Kharg Island, after the midterms?

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 08:15

Jefferies Sets 9000 Target For Market: Everything Must Go Right

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

In this week's Daily Market Commentary, we flagged the growing chorus calling for 9,000 on the S&P 500. The most detailed version comes from Jefferies, which now sees 9,000 by the end of 2027. With the index closing at 7,764.64 on Tuesday, that's another 15.9% from here. Jefferies isn't alone, either. FactSet's bottom-up analyst target sits even higher at 9,261. In a matter of weeks, the S&P 500 9,000 target went from a bold call to the "consensus" view. That's exactly why it deserves a closer look.

What Jefferies' S&P 500 9,000 Target Actually Assumes

Jefferies' price target of 9000 certainly is encouraging, until you strip away the headlines and focus on the math. Price equals earnings times whatever investors will pay for those earnings. Jefferies spells out its math plainly: $450 in 2027 earnings per share at 20x. That assumes 20.8% earnings growth next year, on top of a 2026 estimate of $373 that already sits above the Street. Its bear case is 6,900, and its bull case is 10,500.

However, this is where it gets interesting. Consensus 2027 earnings currently sit at $419.53, up 10% from roughly $381 in May. At Tuesday's close, the market trades at about 18.5 times that number. Getting to 9,000 requires either a 16% expansion in the multiple or another 7% of upward revisions on top of the ones we've already had. Neither is impossible. Both require the current trend in estimates to keep running, and that's the assumption worth testing.

The Drivers Are Real, And They're Breaking A 90-Year Trend

Let me be clear about this: the bulls have the data on their side right now. According to FactSet, analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to grow 31.8% this year and 15.2% in 2027, on revenue growth of 9.1%. Net margins hit 17.0% in the second quarter, the highest since FactSet began tracking in 2009. Jefferies estimates that AI-exposed companies account for about 46% of index earnings, with growth of 60% this year slowing to 24% next year. Goldman puts AI infrastructure at roughly half of all S&P 500 earnings growth across 2026 and 2027.

The more unusual part is the direction of the revisions. Wall Street almost always starts a year too optimistically and spends the next 24 months cutting. Goldman's chart of global earnings estimates clearly shows that. From 2016 through 2025, the final number landed below the first estimate in eight of ten years, and the other two were roughly flat. The 2026 and 2027 estimates are doing the opposite, running up roughly 17% and 27% from where they started. Such is the fuel behind every 9,000 targets on the Street. It's also the thing that has historically reversed with the least warning.

That push higher matters because of where earnings already sit. Two weeks ago, in This Time Is Different? Earnings And Price Break 90-Year Trends, we showed that corporate earnings had broken above a trend that had contained them for more than 90 years.

The S&P 500 also pushed above the upper limit of its long-term price channel, a level last reached in early 2000.

Our work on earnings mean reversion put forward estimates close to 50% above their long-term growth trend. Jefferies' $450 takes that gap to roughly 60%, and every upward revision widens a gap that has historically closed on the earnings side.

To wit, from that 90-year analysis:

"Whatever event causes the 'E' to revert towards its long-term mean, the 'P' will be repriced lower."

Here's What Could Undercut The Outlook

Someone will tell you the analysts have been right all year, so why fight them? That's a reasonable point. The issue is NOT whether earnings grow in 2027. They almost certainly will. The issue is whether they grow 15.2% while the market is already priced for it.

Let's start with the shape of next year's path. As of this writing, the consensus forecast has fourth-quarter earnings growing 26.5% and first-quarter 2027 earnings growing 18.2%. However, the second quarter drops to 1.5%. To hit the full-year 15.2%, the back half of 2027 has to average something close to 20% growth, at a point when the easy year-over-year comparisons are gone.

Secondly, margins are potentially problematic. FactSet already expects net margins to slip from 17.0% to 15.0% in the third quarter, against a five-year average of 12.4%. The 9,000 forecast needs margins to hold near a record, and records are where margins tend to mean-revert.

The third risk is how the AI buildout is being paid for. FactSet tracks hyperscaler capex near $800 billion this year, with free cash flow at or below zero for every major spender except Alphabet and Microsoft. Borrowing has risen from 9% of capex to 32%. As we discussed in AI Capex Depreciation Risk Is The Catch To Record Earnings, those servers are being depreciated over 5 to 6 years.

However, what if their real useful life is closer to 3 or 4? In that case, a much larger depreciation charge lands squarely in 2027 earnings. Then there's the consumer. Brent crude traded near $98 on Tuesday, up from $72 before the war in Iran started, and year-over-year crude consumption has already turned negative. That series has closely tracked real personal consumption, suggesting higher energy costs are eating into broader demand.

The Fed Isn't Coming To The Rescue This Time

Over the last fifteen years, investors learned that the Fed would cut if earnings stumbled. That reflex is gone. The FOMC raised rates by a quarter point to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, and the vote was unanimous. Chair Kevin Warsh said the move "will deliver a timelier return to our target."

As we noted in Another Hike By Year End And No Cuts On The Horizon, the median dot now sits at 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027. In other words, one more hike this year and no cuts until 2028. The Summary of Economic Projections has core PCE inflation at 3.4% this year.

Look at how the committee sees the risks. Not one of the 18 participants sees growth weighted to the downside. Seventeen see inflation risks weighted to the upside. Such is the setup Bob Farrell's Rule #9 warns about: "When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen." As we showed in the DMC, a coin flip has matched the committee's 12-month forecasting record since 2012. A committee this confident about growth and this worried about inflation isn't positioned to deliver "rate cuts" quickly if earnings disappoint.

Rates are the other half of the valuation equation. The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.11% on Wednesday, the highest since 2007. The speed matters as much as the level. Goldman notes that stocks tend to struggle once the 10-year moves by about 30 basis points in two weeks or 50 basis points in a month. It's up 28 since September 9 and 37 since August 21. The Russell 2000, where rates bite first, fell 1.8% on Wednesday.

FactSet's forward P/E of 19.1 implies forward earnings near $400, an earnings yield of about 5.2%. Against a 5.11% 10-year, investors are being paid roughly 8 basis points to own stocks rather than Treasuries. At that premium, even 2027 consensus earnings need a 10-year near 4.6% to reach 9,000. The 6.2% cut in the table below is the average amount by which analysts have overshot final earnings, including recessions.

We can do some simple math and calculate implied S&P 500 returns based on various 2027 EPS levels and valuation multiples. As shown, math can become fairly brutal.

What Should Investors Do Now

None of this makes me bearish on the next few months. The trend is bullish, the index sits within a fraction of its record, and earnings momentum is positive. Fighting that tape has been a losing trade all year. What bothers me is how little room for error the S&P 500's 9,000 target leaves. It needs estimates to keep rising, margins to stay at records, AI spending to keep paying off, and rates to stop climbing, all at the same time. That's a lot of things that have to go right for another 15.9%, against a downside of 6% to 14% if only one or two of them go wrong.

This is why we continue to recommend staying invested while increasing the risk controls and discipline around the portfolio. The goal is to capture potential market appreciation if Jefferies' 9,000 target is achieved, without building a portfolio that depends on it. Practically, here's how that looks.

Markets rarely punish investors for missing the last 15% of a bull market. They punish investors who needed that 15% to be there.

As we wrote two weeks ago, position for the trend and prepare for the bend. Right now, the forecasts have stopped leaving room for anything to go wrong.

They usually do right before something does.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 08:05

Jefferies Flags "Power Indicator" Of Soft iPhone 18 Demand In China

Edison Lee, Jefferies' head of China and Hong Kong technology and software research, is out with a note Monday morning warning that Apple's latest iPhone launch shows signs of softer demand, with weak Hong Kong resale prices suggesting consumers are pushing back against price hikes on premium models.

"Weak 18P/PM resale prices vs. 17P/PM remain our clearest sign of softer demand, despite a weekend rebound in lead times that could reflect tighter supply as DUO ramps," he wrote at the beginning of the note.

Lee points out that weak demand is most pronounced for the new premium iPhone 18 models:

Weak YoY resale pricing remains a powerful indicator of weaker 18P/PM demand vs. 17P/ PM. Our tracking shows 18P/PM resale-price trends in HK remain weak. iPhone 18P resale prices now imply discounts across almost all variants (Table 2). For 18PM, resale premiums fell sharply on day one and have since remained low or declined further (Charts 7-10). The only 18PM variant still commanding a meaningful premium is the 256GB model, at ~8% above Apple's official selling price. The 1TB/2TB versions are particularly weak, potentially reflecting two factors: 1) the US$400/500 price hikes may be too steep relative to consumers' perceived incremental value; and 2) Apple switched from TLC to lower-cost QLC NAND for the 1TB/2TB 18P/PM models, potentially making storage performance less attractive. As of Sep 27, 18PM resale premiums were meaningfully below those of 17PM at the same point last year, except for the 256GB model (Charts 1-2). Overall, resale pricing remains our clearest indication so far that 18P/PM demand is tracking weaker YoY.

Lead times rebounded over the weekend, an encouraging signal, but the improvement could be supply rather than demand driven. According to our tracking, lead times for both 18P/PM fell across almost all markets early last week before generally rebounding toward the weekend (Tables 1-2). As of Sep 27, 18PM lead times were longer YoY in HK/China and the US, shorter in the UK/Germany, and flat in Japan (Chart 5). For 18P, lead times were longer YoY in HK/ China, shorter in the US/Germany, and flat in the UK/Japan (Chart 6). The weekend rebound is encouraging and contrasts with the weaker resale-price signal. However, we would be cautious about interpreting it purely as a demand improvement, as supply could also be tightening as Apple ramps DUO production ahead of Oct 23 deliveries, with pre-orders starting Oct 16. We therefore view lead times as a more mixed signal than resale pricing at this stage.

DUO is generating lots of excitement, but China-specific eSIM restrictions could limit broader adoption. Given DUO's slim form factor, it is eSIM-only, similar to the 17 Air, which has not been selling well. Although eSIM was officially approved by China's MIIT last October, registration must be completed in person at operators' retail outlets. More importantly, China's DUO supports only two eSIM numbers, versus up to eight on eSIM-capable iPhones in HK. This matters because many Chinese consumers maintain multiple mobile numbers, partly because nationwide mobile-number portability was introduced only in 2019 and partly to separate work and personal communications. The restriction could be particularly inconvenient for frequent travelers. A DUO user already using two Chinese numbers who wants to add a third-party travel eSIM may need to suspend one domestic number first, requiring an in-person operator visit. The user would then need another in-person visit to reactivate the suspended number after returning to China. 

We do not think this will necessarily deter high-end early adopters buying DUO as a status symbol, but the inconvenience could become a bigger obstacle to broader adoption, particularly if consumers expect Apple to introduce a second-generation, regular-sized foldable in 2027.

Bank of America analysts said last week that early iPhone sales data painted a mixed picture, with demand for the iPhone 18 Pro broadly in line with the comparable stage of the iPhone 17 launch cycle.

For John Ternus, new Apple CEO, this will be his first test of whether consumers will pay lofty premiums for incremental upgrades. Lee pointed to price hikes of $400 to $500 on the higher-end models as a potential deterrent. He also noted Apple's switch to cheaper QLC storage from TLC in the 1TB and 2TB Pro models could make storage performance less attractive. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 07:45

China Stocks Sink To One-Year Low As Proposed US Curbs Hammer Optical Suppliers

The CSI 300 Index, a leading benchmark tracking 300 of the largest stocks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, fell to a one-year low Monday. The index, roughly comparable to the S&P 500, came under pressure as co-packaged optics (CPO) shares sold off following a Reuters report of proposed US restrictions on Chinese optical transceivers used in sensitive government systems and data centers.

UBS's Lucy Zhang offered clients a first take on the Reuters report and the resulting selloff in Chinese stocks overnight:

China A-shares were under broad-based pressure Monday, led by a sharp selloff in the co-packaged optic (CPO) complex following press reports of fresh US policy restrictions.

Zhongji Innolight fell 9% and Eoptolink dropped 8%, weighing on the broader technology space, as investors reacted to proposed US restrictions targeting Chinese optical transceivers. 

The weakness came against an already fragile backdrop following the Trump-Xi summit, which delivered few concrete outcomes. Growth and technology heavy indices underperformed, with the ChiNext Index down 4.5% and the STAR 50 down 4.1%, as selling pressure spread across AI, optical networking, and broader TMT names. 

The combination of policy uncertainty, crowded positioning, and limited positive catalysts continues to weigh on market sentiment in the near term. A-share full-day turnover remained at RMB1.7 trn, broadly in line with the August-September average, indicating limited buy-on-dip flows ahead of the long holiday.

Meanwhile, The Information separately reported that Beijing may allow Alibaba and ByteDance to purchase Nvidia's RTX Pro 5500 chips, potentially intensifying competition for homegrown suppliers.

The onshore benchmark CSI 300 Index closed 2.2% lower Monday, tumbling to levels last seen in August 2025. The decline leaves the index vulnerable to further downside toward 4,000, with limited technical support that could amplify the move.

Last week's Trump-Xi summit, as described by Barclays senior China economist Yingke Zhou, was "more signaling, less substance," adding, "The Trump-Xi summit was primarily about stabilizing relations rather than resolving disputes. Beyond a short trade-truce extension, progress was limited. The absence of Chinese CEOs suggests China viewed the summit as a strategic dialogue, not a deal-making exercise." 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 07:20

It's A 'McDisaster'

McDonald's shares are on pace for their worst annual decline in nearly a quarter-century after the burger chain disappointed Wall Street last week at its Investor Day, with CFO Ian Borden warning that its US business would be "slightly negative" in the third quarter.

On top of that, Wall Street analysts, including Deutsche Bank's Lauren Silberman, soured on last week's developments and said the turnaround inflection point for the quick-service Big Mac chain has been delayed.

Shares of the burger giant have fallen nearly 31% from their February high and are heading for their worst annual performance since 2002.

Demand woes are emerging as the US price of a Big Mac jumped 23% between 2019 and the end of 2025, according to the Economist's Big Mac Index. While those increases helped offset higher ingredient, labor, and fuel costs, the days of a cheap burger are long gone.

"Their prices have gone up substantially, and it's no longer viewed as the best value in food," said Jacob Aiken-Phillips of Melius Research, who has the only "Sell" rating on the stock among analysts tracked by Bloomberg.

The Melius analyst noted, "I could go to Texas Roadhouse instead and have an actual sit-down experience with my family that's not that much more expensive."

What happened to MCD's quality control? 

Bloomberg pointed out that rival QSR chains are finding more traction with customers: Burger King posted US comparable sales growth of 8.5% in its latest quarter, supported by a revamped Whopper and a Star Wars promotion. Taco Bell's same-store sales rose 7% as its $5, $7 and $9 meal boxes attracted customers.

McDonald's answer to sagging demand has been an $8.5 billion multiyear overhaul involving technology, restaurant upgrades, food quality and service improvements, and an effort to revive its PlayPlaces, but the turnaround plan failed to ignite optimism on Wall Street.

Silberman's key quotes from her initial takeaways from Investor Day:

• US sales remain weak: "US SSS were slightly negative in July and August, and while September should be positive, 3Q SSS are expected to be slightly negative given the slow start to the quarter."
• Fourth quarter caution: "We suspect 4Q US SSS will likely remain sluggish, in part due to a tough comparison."
• Forecast cuts: "We are lowering our 3Q/4Q US SSS to -0.5%/-1% (from flat)."
• The capex bill: "We estimate the total system investment for NEXT will cost ~$19BN, implying MCD will contribute ~45%."
• AI and productivity upside: "We walk away with increased conviction in the company's ability to improve unit economics by unlocking productivity through the implementation of its ArchIQ technology platform."

Read Deutsche Bank's report here. McDonald's play fits into a broader theme UBS equity trader Mark Paski recently warned about: Wall Street has turned its back on consumer stocks. An expensive turnaround is a tougher sell when working-poor customers can no longer afford pricey Big Macs. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 06:55

Boat Migrants Who Have Entered Britain Now Outnumber Its Soldiers

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Britain now has more illegal Channel arrivals under the Labour government, which has been in power two years, than it has soldiers in the British Army.

Home Office figures put small-boat arrivals since Labour took office on 4 July 2024 at 83,279. The regular Army stands at 83,000.

On Wednesday alone, 781 people came ashore - the worst single day since Andy Burnham replaced Sir Keir Starmer as prime minister in July. The first three days of the week delivered 1,085 arrivals. Across 809 days of Labour government, that works out at roughly 103 people a day.

'It has been a very bad week for Shabana Mahmood...'

GB News Political Editor @ChristopherHope discusses the latest illegal migration milestone after it was revealed that the number of small boat migrants now exceeds the size of the British Army. pic.twitter.com/crGvJwxl5L

— GB News (@GBNEWS) September 25, 2026

Shadow home secretary Chris Philp said the milestone speaks for itself. "Labour has let an entire army-sized population cross the Channel illegally," he said. "More people have arrived in small boats than we have soldiers defending Britain. That is completely bonkers. Labour has lost control of our borders and seems utterly incapable of getting it back."

Former Royal Navy officer Chris Parry went further. Labour's intake, he said, amounts to six-and-a-half divisions of fighting-age men. "That's more divisions than were in the Allied assault wave on D-Day," he added, calling the crossings "amphibious operations against our coast."

The comparison is worse when the rest of the services are brought in. Labour's small-boat total already sits 15,429 ahead of the Royal Navy and RAF combined, which together field 67,850 full-time personnel. And this is only the post-election slice. Under the Conservatives, around 128,000 people arrived by dinghy. Since records began in December 2018 the running total has blown past 200,000 - higher than the combined strength of the Army, Navy and RAF.

Writing in the Mail after more than 1,200 people crossed from Monday, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said: "It is utterly insane. And if it wasn't clear before, the events of the past few days have proved beyond any reasonable doubt that both Border Force and the Home Office have completely lost control."

He added: "Years ago, I warned the small boats crisis would define this era of British politics. Predictably, the chin-stroking commentariat declared I was exaggerating. Well, look where we are now."

"Ordinary Britons rightly ask if successive governments cannot stop people from arriving illegally in broad daylight, let alone under cover of darkness without detection, then what exactly is the point of having a border?" Farage asked. His party wants the largest military operation in the Channel since the Second World War and a return of every illegal arrival to France.

'It is not right!'

Senior Researcher at the Prosperity Institute, Guy Dampier, reacts as the number of small boat migrants now outnumber the British Army.

? Freeview 236, Sky 512, Virgin 604 pic.twitter.com/e1vy4dBcUW

— GB News (@GBNEWS) September 25, 2026

Two boats this week reached British beaches without Border Force interception - one at Samphire Hoe between Dover and Folkestone, another near Folkestone the day before. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood ordered an "urgent review" and said even one uncontrolled landing is "one too many." Education Secretary Lucy Powell then told GB News that "you can't stop everything all of the time," while insisting Mahmood was taking "swift action to find out what's gone wrong here and make sure it doesn't happen again."

Border Force union official Lucy Moreton was less diplomatic. Undetected landings are "absolutely, definitely happening," she said, with abandoned vessels and reports "all the way down to Falmouth." "If we don't look for it, we don't know it's happening. We don't know it's happening, we don't have to deal with it."

'We've got a government that is oblivious to the scale of the problem we face in the Channel.'

Shadow Secretary for Energy Security and Net Zero Andrew Bowie MP reacts as the number of small boat migrants who have reached the UK under Labour exceeds the size of the British Army. pic.twitter.com/PvXnKE2Q3U

— GB News (@GBNEWS) September 25, 2026

Labour's first act in 2024 was to scrap the Rwanda deterrent. Shadow energy secretary Andrew Bowie said the latest numbers follow from that choice. "We've got a government that is oblivious to the scale of the problem we face in the Channel," he said. "It's not a surprise, frankly, because the very first thing this Labour government did was get rid of any sort of deterrent to prevent illegal migrants coming into this country."

Former Home Office borders director Glyn Williams told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that "the consequences of a failing policy... are becoming more and more extreme," and that "more extreme measures" may now have to be considered.

"The consequences of a failing policy...are becoming more and more extreme."

Small boats containing 781 migrants arrived in the UK yesterday, the highest number in one day this year.

Former Director General for Borders & Immigration at the Home Office, Glyn Williams, says 'more... pic.twitter.com/c01qWFrncc

— BBC Radio 4 Today (@BBCr4today) September 25, 2026

The official line is that crossings are down 42 percent this year and that summer 2026 was the quietest since 2020. That is the defence ministers reach for while dinghies still beach in Kent and Britain discusses paying France another billion pounds for the next small-boats deal. GB News presenter Patrick Christys called the week "full-on illegal migrant carnage."

'Full-on illegal migrant carnage.'

GB News Presenter @PatrickChristys reacts to at least 1,000 illegal migrants having crossed the Channel since Monday, as it's revealed Britain might have to pay France another £1bn for the next small boat deal. pic.twitter.com/TtDoUa3kOj

— GB News (@GBNEWS) September 23, 2026

The people coming off those boats do not vanish. They are processed, housed and parked on the public. We have already covered what that looks like on the ground. In Piddington, Oxfordshire - 350 residents, 46 children, no shop, no pub - a Home Office paper for the old MoD depot discussed 3,510 "service users" against an official planning figure of 1,256 single adult males. Ten migrants for every local.

Similar dumps are lined up at Linton-on-Ouse, Barnham and Crowborough as hotels are emptied into former barracks.

The legal machine that then keeps them here is not a refugee system. It is a production line. A Home Office official who has handled thousands of cases put the genuine share at "at best 1 per cent." Package stories, recycled police letters, staged nightclub photos, modern-slavery claims that cannot be disproved. Grant rates still run in the tens of thousands. Removals do not.

Who helps keep the Channel route open is another story again. NGO networks on the French coast have spent years treating the crossing as a humanitarian project rather than a breach of an island nation's border.

Migration Watch chairman Alp Mehmet urged "Military-age men are pouring into Britain across the Channel. Illegal Channel crossings are now a major political crisis, and pose a real and present threat to our national security."

Almost 90 percent of those intercepted since 2018 have been male; two-thirds are aged 18 to 39. People-smuggling gangs have told reporters that Iran has used the route to move operatives in return for a "favour" once on British soil. In 2023, nineteen suspected terrorists linked to Islamic State and al-Shabaab were reported to have arrived the same way.

A country that cannot stop a dinghy in daylight does not have a border policy. It has a ferry service run by criminal gangs, underwritten by hotels, lawyers and a claims system that treats refusal as the hard option.

Labour inherited a failure and then dismantled the one deterrent it had. Burnham now inherits the same beaches, the same numbers, and an actual Army smaller than the cohort that has already washed up on his party's watch.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 06:30

Italian Energy Giant Eni Caps Fuel Prices As Refining Crunch Drives Costs Higher

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

Italian energy major Eni will cap fuel prices at its Enilive service stations beginning September 28 as tighter refined-product supplies and reduced European refining capacity continue to put upward pressure on pump prices.

The company said diesel sold through Enilive will be capped at €2.19 per liter, while petrol will be limited to €1.99 per liter. Eni said the caps are roughly €0.17 per liter below current average price levels.

The measure will initially remain in place for 30 days and could be extended through the end of 2026 depending on fuel-market conditions and supply trends.

Eni said the initiative is linked to excise-tax relief currently in force in Italy and is intended to reduce the impact of elevated fuel prices on households and businesses.

European fuel markets have faced renewed pressure from geopolitical disruptions, constrained refined-product availability and a long-term decline in regional refining capacity. Eni said nearly 30 European refineries have closed over the past 15 years, leaving the market more exposed when supplies tighten or imports are disrupted.

The Italian major said it has already been absorbing part of the increase in international fuel prices since March rather than fully passing higher wholesale costs through to recommended pump prices.

The latest intervention comes as European countries continue to grapple with the consequences of shrinking conventional refining capacity while attempting to transition toward lower-carbon fuels.

Eni is maintaining refining-related investments in Italy through its Enilive business, including its biorefineries in Venice and Gela. The company is also transforming its Livorno industrial site and other domestic facilities as part of a strategy focused increasingly on biofuels and lower-carbon products.

Those projects allow Eni to retain domestic processing capacity while shifting part of its downstream portfolio away from traditional petroleum refining.

[ZH: Last week saw US diesel prices decouple (lower) from EU prices amid chatter of a US export ban...]

The price cap also illustrates the increasing pressure on European refiners and fuel retailers to balance volatile international product prices with government efforts to limit the impact of energy costs on consumers.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 02:00

Never Trust Uncle Sam On Drugs

Authored by James Bovard via JimBovard.com,

As the Covid-19 pandemic struck this nation, many Americans were stunned to see top federal health officials brazenly lie to buttress their own power. Bureaucrats and politicians unleashed themselves by shrouding how the feds bankrolled the creation of the pathogen, sanctifying a pseudo-miracle cure vaccine that was concocted almost overnight, and denying the vast collateral damage from effectively placing hundreds of millions of citizens under house arrest.

But there were precedents for all those crimes and follies in the federal war on drugs that began more than a century ago. That crusade established the right of federal officials to define reality and to scourge anyone who tried to reveal that federal Drug Czars were dangerous hucksters.

Federal contortions on marijuana are Exhibit A for why Americans should never trust Uncle Sam on drugs. For more than 50 years, the federal government shamelessly pretended that marijuana had no recognized medical use.

Last December 18, President Trump signed an executive order entitled, "Increasing Medical Marijuana and Cannabidiol Research." Trump ordered the Attorney General and the Drug Enforcement Administration to speed up rule-making to finally enable far more medical research on the benefits of marijuana. On April 23, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche announced that henceforth all "FDA-approved marijuana-derived products" and "State-licensed medical marijuana products" are shifted from Schedule 1 to Schedule 3, a far less restrictive federal regulatory regime.

But the long history of federal persecution of marijuana users, researchers, and growers vivified the folly of trusting federal intervention to protect Americans' health.

Historical Context

During the 1920s, the US Department of Agriculture encouraged farmers to grow cannabis to boost their sagging incomes (hemp was used for such things as paper and rope). Marijuana also grew in popularity during the 1920s as a result of Prohibition, which inflated the price of alcohol by curtailing its availability.

During the Great Depression, Mexican immigrants surged into the United States searching for work and brought marijuana with them. Hostility toward the immigrants led to the Marihuana Tax Act of 1937, which effectively criminalized the possession of marijuana and, according to Yale professor David Musto, "mostly put a lot of jazz bands in jail."

Harvard Professor of Psychiatry Lester Grinspoon notes, "Between 1839 and 1900, more than a hundred articles on the therapeutic uses of marijuana appeared in scientific journals. As late as 1937, extract of cannabis was still a legitimate medicine marketed by drug companies." The American Medical Association testified at hearings that year urging that marijuana not be effectively banned. Unfortunately, Congress - bowing to the exhortations of the Federal Bureau of Narcotics - proclaimed in 1937 that marijuana had no medical value. Congress effectively prohibited any use of marijuana for ailing Americans. But simply because a majority of Congressmen say something doesn't make it true.

Federal Judges Need Not Apply

In 1972, the National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML) petitioned the federal Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs to reclassify marijuana and recognize its medical uses. The director of the agency refused to consider the petition. NORML took the case to a federal appeals court, which issued a ruling that admonished the agency for rejecting the petition without "a reflective consideration and analysis."

In 1975, NORML sued the Drug Enforcement Administration (the successor agency to the Bureau) to force the agency to evaluate the evidence on whether Americans should have access to marijuana strictly for medicinal purposes. The DEA held a hearing, and a DEA administrative law judge found some merit in some of NORML's positions. But the chief of the DEA overturned those aspects of the judge's decision.

In 1977, a federal court of appeals criticized the DEA's final order and ordered the agency to reconsider the evidence for the medical benefits of marijuana.

In 1982, NORML petitioned the federal appeals court to force the DEA to follow the court's previous orders. That same year, the National Academy of Science's Institute of Medicine concluded: "Cannabis and its derivatives have shown promise in the treatment of a variety of disorders, [including] glaucoma, asthma, ... and in the nausea and vomiting of cancer chemotherapy."

In 1986, a DEA administrative law judge launched an extensive evaluation of the evidence for marijuana. DEA judge Francis Young spent two years conducting hearings and listening to scores of expert witnesses. Young ruled in 1988: "The marijuana plant is anything but a new drug....Uncontroverted evidence in this record indicates that marijuana was being used therapeutically by mankind 2,000 years before the birth of Christ. The evidence in this record clearly shows that marijuana has been accepted as capable of relieving the distress of great numbers of very ill people and doing so with safety under medical supervision. It would be unreasonable, arbitrary and capricious for a DEA to continue to stand between those sufferers and the benefits of this substance in the light of the evidence of this record."

How did the DEA respond to the evidence? DEA administrator John Lawn denounced the judge's finding as a "cruel and dangerous hoax" and refused to accept the judge's ruling. Lawn announced that the agency would only allow medical use of marijuana if it had already "currently accepted medical use." And since the DEA forbade any doctors from prescribing marijuana for medical use, that somehow meant that the agency must continue to ban its use in the future.

NORML sued again, appealing to a federal court to force the DEA to accept the recommendations of its own administrative law judge, and the court again compelled the DEA to reexamine the issue.

In March 1992, the DEA "reconsidered" and announced that it was right all along and that it would continue to ban any medical use of marijuana. DEA chief Robert Bonner decreed: "Lay testimonials, impressions of physicians, isolated case studies, random clinical experience, reports so lacking in details they cannot be scientifically evaluated and all other forms of anecdotal proof are entirely irrelevant."

Bonner got warmed up and showed some of the fervor that is the pride of DEA: "Beyond doubt, the claims that marijuana is medicine are false, dangerous and cruel. Sick men, women and children can be fooled by these claims and experiment with the drug. Instead of being helped, they risk serious side effects." Bonner acknowledged that he based his findings on the same testimony and documents that led DEA Administrative Law Judge Young to an opposite conclusion four years earlier. (Bonner denounced me for writing a Washington Times article exposing the DEA's chemical warfare on hapless Guatemalan farmers.)

As Harvard psychiatry professors Lester Grinspoon and James Bakalar noted at that time, "The Government's real concern is not that marijuana is ineffective as a medicine, but that it is too effective. The Government cannot acknowledge any of this because it has vastly exaggerated the dangers of marijuana for more than 50 years and is still committed to its war against the drug."

Pseudo-Science Trumps Democracy

Clinton's drug czar General Barry McCaffrey effectively claimed to be a wiser scientist than all the experts who researched marijuana's effects. On August 15, 1996, while campaigning in California against Proposition 215, which would have legalized the medical use of marijuana, McCaffrey declared: "There is not a shred of scientific evidence that shows that smoked marijuana is useful or needed. This is not science. This is not medicine. This is a cruel hoax." On December 30, 1996, when asked by a CNN reporter "is there any evidence...that marijuana is useful in a medical situation?" McCaffrey responded: "No, none at all. There are hundreds of studies that indicate that it isn't." McCaffrey ridiculed claims of marijuana's benefit as "Cheech 'n' Chong medicine."

After voters passed the proposition, the drug czar's office put out a press release warning: "The passage of [Proposition 215] creates a significant threat to the drug control system that protects our children....The decision to bring appropriate criminal or administrative enforcement action will be, as always, decided on a case-by-case basis." McCaffrey's warning sparked a vision of a DEA agent lurking underneath the desk of every doctor.

Federal judge Fern Smith issued a preliminary injunction on April 30, 1997, prohibiting the feds from punishing doctors: "The government's fear that frank dialogue between physicians and patients about medical marijuana might foster drug use...does not justify infringing the First Amendment...[T]his case is about the ability of doctors, on an individualized basis, to give advice and recommendations to bona fide patients suffering from serious, debilitating illnesses regarding the possible benefits of personal, medical use of small quantities of marijuana."

Clinton administration officials sneered at marijuana referendum results. Attorney General Janet Reno declared: "I don't think that the determination as to whether there is a medical, a scientific medical use of marijuana, should be made at the ballot box. I think it should be made in an informed way after appropriate scientific evaluation." And if government officials chose to ignore all the scientific evidence, then that was merely political science.

The Specter of Emaciated Chemo Patients

The federal government in 1978 began a program providing marijuana directly to a small number of people with illnesses that undeniably benefited from consuming marijuana, such as glaucoma and epilepsy. But the George H.W. Bush administration closed the program to any new entrants in 1992 after only eight people were certified - even though hundreds of thousands of people suffered from the same illnesses. The Clinton administration refused to reopen the program to new sufferers.

The Justice Department, in a 1999 brief, declared: "It became clear that the potential widespread use of marijuana for 'medical' purposes under the program...was bad public policy." According to the Justice Department, the first requisite of good public policy is to pretend that individual citizens do not exist.

In 1997, the CBS situation comedy Murphy Brown featured star Candice Bergen suffering from the aftereffects of chemotherapy. A friend provided her with some marijuana. DEA chief Thomas Constantine denounced CBS for "doing a great disservice" by "trivializing drug abuse" and "pandering to the libertarian supporters of an 'open society' and to the myths of legalization."

Constantine barked: "I am extremely troubled that at a time when teenage drug abuse is doubling...a television show of the caliber of Murphy Brown would portray marijuana as medicine. It is not medicine." Constantine promised to investigate "if any laws were broken" by broadcasting that show.

Clinton's drug policy was haunted by the specter of emaciated chemotherapy patients desperately needing something to stop their vomiting and fire their appetites. And nothing works better for this than smoking marijuana. The feds approved pills with THC, the active ingredient in marijuana; however, pills are scant help to someone heaving their guts.

Bluster from Washington political hacks failed to stop the cascade of new scientific evidence on the medicinal benefits of marijuana:

• A 1997 study performed on animals at the University of California at San Francisco found that cannabinoids (the active ingredient in marijuana) can be an effective reliever of pain without the adverse side effects of opiates.
• The American Journal of Psychiatry reported in 1999 that German researchers successfully used the major psychoactive ingredient in marijuana to treat Tourette's Syndrome (a complex neuropsychiatric disorder characterized by sudden spasms).
• The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reported in 1998 that marijuana may protect brain cells during a stroke.
• British researchers revealed in 2000 that a marijuana compound was very effective in helping control the muscle spasms that afflict people with multiple sclerosis.

Clinton administration officials suppressed research results of United Nations affiliates that embarrassed the US drug war. The World Health Organization (WHO) completed a major study of marijuana's effects in 1997. The draft of the final report included a comparison of the adverse effects of cannabis with alcohol and tobacco. However, the WHO, bowing to pressure from the US government and other drug warriors, suppressed that chapter.

New Scientist, a British magazine, acquired a copy of the study and reported that in five out of seven categories of long-term health damage, alcohol was judged more harmful than marijuana. The report also observed that "in developed societies, cannabis appears to play little role in injuries caused by violence, as does alcohol."

Obama's Great Betrayal

In 2008, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama appeared to pledge an end to the persecution of medical marijuana users and providers: "What I'm not going to be doing is using Justice Department resources to try to circumvent state laws on this issue." Regardless, the Obama administration brought almost twice as many prosecutions against medical marijuana providers and users as did the George W. Bush administration.

Rob Kampia, executive director of the Marijuana Policy Project, complained in 2012 that "Obama has become more hostile to medical marijuana patients than any president in US history." A 2012 Time Magazine analysis noted that the DEA "has made it clear that medical marijuana is not medicine, and even called it a 'mortal danger.'"

Obama's repression of medical marijuana coincided with an explosion in abuse of prescription painkillers. A 2016 federal report estimated that 38 percent of adults had used prescription painkillers in the previous year, resulting in 19,000 deaths (more than the national homicide total). Medical marijuana is a proven painkiller, but the Obama administration (supported by pharmaceutical companies' campaign contributions and lobbying) scorned it. The National Institute on Drug Abuse torpedoed a 2011 research project testing whether "marijuana helps combat veterans with their post-traumatic stress disorder."

Generations of politicians and bureaucrats scorned the scientific evidence on marijuana to score "tough on crime" points. Anyone with an illness or malady that marijuana could help became merely collateral damage in the war on drugs. More than ten million Americans were arrested for marijuana to help prop up Washington's campaign to demonize weed and anyone who touched it.

Marijuana policy vivifies how federal policymakers were perpetually more interested in controlling and punishing Americans than in permitting citizens to find relief for all that ailed them. "When you mix politics and science, you get politics," observed John Barry in The Great Influenza, his history of the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak. Unfortunately, hard facts can rarely compete with massive national campaigns to demonize anyone who refuses to submit to the latest commands.

An earlier version of this piece was published by the Future of Freedom Foundation.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/27/2026 - 23:30

Nicki Minaj Blasts Democrats For Treating The Black Vote Like It's Theirs

Rapper Nicki Minaj urged young Americans to vote Republican in the upcoming midterm elections during an appearance on Fox's My View with Lara Trump, according to comments Fox News reported Sunday. Minaj, a supporter of President Donald Trump, also accused the Democratic Party of discouraging black voters from breaking with the party.

Nicki Minaj - July 9, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. Christopher Polk for WWD

She kicked things off with a blunt call to "vote red."

"You know how much you want a say in what happens and realize that the only way to have that is by voting, not just voting for the president, but just voting and, you know, all of the local elections. Right?" she said. "But I want you guys to do your research, see what candidates are in your area, you know, and just give it a couple, you know, a few minutes or an hour. Research them and then make a decision. You guys are so blessed to be able to vote. And you have to, more than ever now, you have to take advantage of that ability that you guys have to be able to vote, please. And vote red."

Nicki Minaj message to Young Voters on Midterms: Vote Red. pic.twitter.com/9IALL9eoXy

— Acyn (@Acyn) September 27, 2026

Then Lara Trump asked whether she thought that "there are more people out there who vote for Democrats not because they like their policies and the politics themselves, but because they feel like they're supposed to vote for Democrats?"

"I think it's changing now, but obviously, for a very long time, black people specifically feel that they should just vote blue," Minaj said. "I would say the entire country, there's been a major shift where people are starting to wake up and see what's going on and choose differently."

The Grammy-nominee first came out in support of Trump in November 2025, after Trump spoke out about violence against Christians in Nigeria. She publicly thanked Trump for taking the issue seriously, marking a sharp change from her earlier criticism of his immigration policies. By December, she was openly praising Trump and JD Vance at Turning Point USA's AmericaFest, calling them "role models" and saying she had "utmost respect and admiration" for Trump.

"Black people are not allowed, according to the Democrats, for the most part, to make a different decision," she told Lara Trump. "We're not allowed to think, we're not allowed to voice concerns, to make an argument as to why we don't like a particular candidate."

Plenty of evidence backs this up. Joe Biden infamously told radio host Charlamagne tha God in 2020 that "you ain't black" if he had trouble picking between him and Trump.

Six years ago today, Joe Biden told Black Americans they “ain't Black" if they don’t vote for him.pic.twitter.com/GaHmmgFtLP

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) May 22, 2026

In 2021, "Uncle Tim" trended on Twitter after Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) delivered the Republican response to Joe Biden's 2021 joint address to Congress. Justice Clarence Thomas has received similar attacks for decades.

Minaj noted that black voters who aren't in line with the Democrats face "smear campaigns and just outright nasty behavior from these adults."

"It just doesn't look good," she added. "And so the Democrats kind of have been just digging their own grave in that way and they're not understanding that people can see them."

And, according to Minaj, black voters are catching on. "And now they feel, 'Oh, okay. So you only love me and respect me when I do as you say and don't ask any questions,'" she said. "And no one wants to be treated that way."

Minaj: Black people are not allowed to think according to Democrats. We are not allowed to voice concerns, to make an argument as to why we don't like a particular candidate. And they are seeing in real time if they do, what happens to them. Smear campaigns pic.twitter.com/NQg0qy5i9m

— Acyn (@Acyn) September 27, 2026

Asked by Lara Trump what she saw in Democrats that "led you to believe that perhaps they did not have the best interest of the country or for you in mind," Minaj accused the party of becoming "way too caught up in pop culture," arguing it has let its romance with the entertainment industry spiral out of control. "I think that they've allowed their relationships with artists to cause them to act like children and to be so petty and childish. But that's what I think they do. They allow people in the music industry to influence them. And these people clearly don't have their best interests at heart. These people have their egos at heart."

Nicki Minaj: Well, I think the Democrats have gotten way too caught up in pop culture, for lack of a better term. I think they have allowed their relationships with artists to cause them to act like children and to be so petty, but that’s what I think they do. They allow people… pic.twitter.com/wj0GhMYKiE

— Acyn (@Acyn) September 27, 2026

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/27/2026 - 22:15

China Extends Mortgages To 40 Years, But Homebuyers Remain Reluctant To Borrow

Authored by Michael Zhuang via The Epoch Times,

China's decision to extend the maximum term for individual home mortgages from 30 years to 40 years has received a lukewarm response from homebuyers.

Residential buildings under construction by Chinese real estate developer Vanke in Hangzhou, in eastern China's Zhejiang province on May 9, 2024. STR/AFP via Getty Images

Several major Chinese banks moved quickly to offer 40-year mortgages after the policy took effect, with some advertising approval times as short as 15 minutes. However, Chinese media reports indicate that relatively few prospective buyers are opting for the longer loans.

The policy change, announced jointly by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and China's National Financial Regulatory Administration on Aug. 28, allows individual home mortgages to run for up to 40 years, according to Chinese state media Xinhua News Agency.

The PBOC said the longer term would give borrowers and lenders greater flexibility and help promote a "virtuous cycle" between finance and the property sector.

However, the longer repayment period has done little to change a broader shift in household behavior. Chinese consumers are still reluctant to take on additional debt and are instead seeking to reduce their existing liabilities.

Households Pull Back From Debt

Chinese news portal Sina reported on Sept. 20 that banks had been actively promoting the new mortgage option, but prospective buyers remained cautious.

A report by the Chinese media outlet China Times, via Sina, attributed the weak demand to households' growing reluctance to take on debt as China's economy slows.

PBOC data showed that household loans fell by 1.03 trillion yuan ($150 billion) during the first eight months of 2026, according to state-run mouthpiece Xinhua.

The slowdown is particularly pronounced in longer-term household borrowing, which includes mortgages. Such loans increased by 1.17 trillion yuan ($33 billion) during the first half of 2026, according to data from China's Ministry of Commerce.

Another sign of the shift came in April, when repayments of long-term household loans exceeded new loans issued that month. The scale of early repayments reached a record high.

Chinese media Securities Times, in a report carried by Sina, described the trend as Chinese households collectively seeking to "quit" mortgages.

Mike Li, a U.S.-based investment consultant and China expert, told The Epoch Times that the longer mortgage terms do not address the underlying financial pressure facing households.

"The regime is trying to ease borrowers' economic pressure by extending the repayment period, but the pressure is only being postponed and has not actually been reduced," Li said.

The reluctance to take on mortgages comes as China's housing market remains in a prolonged downturn.

Falling home prices create an additional obstacle for households considering a long-term mortgage. Buyers taking on large mortgages face the risk that their homes' values could decline while their outstanding debt remains high.

Li said this could also create risks for banks if borrowers begin to default.

"If a default occurs, when banks dispose of the property, they may face a decline in the property's value, insufficient collateral, increased disposal costs, and a lower recovery rate," he said.

Li said the broader policy response had so far failed to reverse the weakness in the property market or revive consumption.

"The policies introduced by the Chinese Communist Party so far have had very little effect. The property market has not been rescued, and consumption has not improved," he said.

Jon Sun contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/27/2026 - 21:50

Two-Month China Truce Falls Short Of Expectations As Markets Fade Trump-Xi Summit

Donald Trump gave Xi Jinping the full state-visit treatment in Washington, but markets were more interested in what the two leaders did not deliver.

After three days of ceremony, an unusually warm presidential welcome and repeated pledges to stabilize relations between the world's two largest economies, the main economic outcome was a two-month extension of the existing U.S.-China trade truce, pushing its expiration from November 10 to January 10, 2027.

That averted an immediate return to escalation, but fell short of the longer runway many investors had expected.

President Donald Trump, center right, first lady Melania Trump, right, China's President Xi Jinping, center left, and his wife Peng Liyuan watch a silent drill platoon review on the new helipad from the Blue Room Balcony of the White House, Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Following the meeting, China's CSI 300 fell 1.7% on Thursday, its worst session in a month, while the Shanghai Composite lost 1.2%. On Friday, with the mainland shut for the Mid-Autumn holiday, the Hang Seng dropped another 1.7% to a two-month low, with technology and AI shares leading the decline. The yuan also gave back part of its pre-summit advance as the dollar strengthened.

The reaction was notable because expectations were hardly euphoric going in. The summit had been billed primarily as an exercise in stabilizing a relationship still divided over tariffs, advanced technology, rare-earth supplies, Taiwan and Iran. Even against that modest bar, the two-month extension came in short: Wall Street had generally been discussing three to six months, while some investors had hoped for a one-year rollover.

Barclays senior China economist Yingke Zhou summed up the meeting as "more signaling, less substance." Zhou's broader point was that Washington and Beijing appeared focused on preventing another breakdown in relations rather than resolving the disputes that produced the truce in the first place.

The Deal Wasn't Nothing

The White House said the two governments formally operationalized their previously announced Boards of Trade and Investment. Under the Board of Trade, officials reached consensus on recommendations for more favorable tariff treatment covering roughly $30 billion of non-sensitive goods in each direction, including U.S. agricultural products and medical devices and Chinese consumer goods. China also committed to importing at least 10 million metric tons of U.S. coal in both 2027 and 2028.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Friday that the two sides had reached agreements allowing certain products to remain outside future tariff disputes and promised significantly more detail on Monday.

"We're in a managed trade situation," Greer said, adding that the administration would release "a lot more details" about the negotiations.

That means Monday's announcement could materially change the initial assessment of the summit. A detailed list of tariff exclusions, purchase commitments and implementation dates would give businesses something they can actually model.

But the official fact sheet also made clear how much remains unfinished.

Rare earths are the most obvious example. Washington said the two governments "continue to work" on U.S. concerns about shortages of rare earths and other critical minerals - careful language that confirms the supply issue remains unresolved. Chinese shipments of rare-earth magnets to the U.S. had already fallen sharply in August, and Beijing's export-licensing regime continues to give it substantial leverage over Western manufacturers.

There was no broad settlement on advanced semiconductors. No breakthrough on Taiwan. And although the two countries have agreed to establish what the White House calls a "Super Intelligence Dialogue" and an emergency-communication channel, the details remain thin enough that markets have little basis yet for pricing an investment impact.

Rare Earths And Taiwan Are Still There

The rare-earth issue may be the clearest test of whether the current detente has changed the balance of leverage.

China remains dominant in both mining and, more importantly, processing of rare-earth materials, while U.S. officials have complained that deliveries have not fully met earlier commitments. The White House's own language after the summit indicates that Washington is still seeking more reliable shipment levels.

Taiwan is similarly unresolved. Xi pressed Trump during the visit to take a harder line against Taiwanese independence. At the same time, Washington has been weighing another arms package for Taipei worth roughly $14 billion. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said during the visit that delays in arms sales to Taiwan reflect concerns about U.S. weapons production.

Whatever the eventual timing of that sale, the important point for markets is that the summit did not remove Taiwan from the bilateral risk ledger.

The same is true of AI. Both sides agreed to continue talks, including work on an incident-communication channel, but they remain competitors in advanced chips, models and computing infrastructure.

Sixty Days Of Visibility

For companies exposed to U.S.-China trade, January 10 is better than November 10. It gets the current arrangement through the Christmas import season and prevents an immediate reopening of the tariff war.

But sixty days is not much planning horizon for a manufacturer deciding where to build a plant, sign a multiyear sourcing contract or commit billions of dollars in capital.

And the tariff burden has not disappeared. The latest Penn Wharton Budget Model data put the effective U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports at roughly 23%, compared with about 7% overall. China still faces the highest effective rate among major U.S. trading partners.

That helps explain why investors distinguished between stability and resolution.

There is a constructive side to that. China's export sector has remained remarkably resilient, and keeping the truce intact removes the immediate threat of another tariff shock. U.S.-bound manufacturers, electronics suppliers, appliance makers and auto-parts exporters all benefit from having the deadline pushed into next year.

A Summit Built Around Stability

Trump personally greeted Xi and Peng Liyuan at Joint Base Andrews, an unusual gesture for a visiting head of state. The White House staged a formal arrival ceremony and military flyover, followed by bilateral meetings, a state dinner, tea and a visit to the National Archives. Xi repeatedly called for a stable long-term relationship and said the U.S. and China could avoid the so-called Thucydides Trap of conflict between a rising and established power.

China also revived one of its oldest diplomatic tools: pandas. Beijing agreed to send two giant pandas to Zoo Atlanta. Ping Ping and Fu Shuang arrived in Atlanta on Sunday.

But the composition of the summit showed the limits of the commercial thaw.

The American side brought a who's who of technology and finance, with executives from Nvidia, AMD, OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Apple, Tesla and major Wall Street firms involved in the broader visit. Xi's official delegation, by contrast, was dominated by government officials rather than Chinese CEOs - a contrast Barclays cited in arguing that Beijing approached Washington primarily as a strategic dialogue rather than a corporate dealmaking exercise.

Washington and Beijing appear to have decided that keeping the relationship inside guardrails is itself valuable. What they have not done is settle the economic and geopolitical disputes inside those guardrails..

What To Watch Monday

First, Greer's trade details. The White House has already disclosed the framework for preferential treatment of about $30 billion in non-sensitive goods. Monday should show how much of that framework is operational - which products qualify, when tariff treatment changes and what purchase commitments accompany it.

Second, mainland equities. China's markets were closed Friday, leaving Hong Kong to absorb the final day of the summit in thin holiday trading. Monday will be the first full onshore session able to react to the completed visit and whatever additional trade details Washington releases.

Third, the yuan. Beijing guided the currency stronger ahead of the summit before allowing some of that move to reverse as the dollar rallied. With the diplomatic event now over, traders will be watching the PBOC's daily fixing for clues about whether authorities still prefer gradual appreciation or are prepared to tolerate more two-way movement.

The Washington summit therefore leaves investors with a peculiar combination: less immediate danger, but few reasons to declare the underlying dispute settled.

Tariffs remain elevated. Rare-earth supplies remain an issue. Taiwan remains unresolved. AI competition remains intact. And the new trade deadline arrives less than four weeks after the leaders are expected to meet for the fourth time this year.

Washington bought another sixty days of stability. What happens inside those sixty days will determine whether it bought anything more.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/27/2026 - 21:00

Bill Gates Predicts A Billion Deaths Via Evolutionary Event

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Bill Gates is back on the Sunday-show circuit spreading doom and predicting a massive reduction in the human population.

In an exclusive Meet the Press interview set to air this weekend, the Microsoft co-founder told Kristen Welker that artificial intelligence is "certainly powerful enough to drive events that... cause a billion deaths" - then used the line to demand federal legislation, law-enforcement monitoring, and an end to industry self-regulation.

Gates is touting AI as a species-level emergency, and calling for handing over total control to politicians and a new class of global inspectors.

? Bill Gates predicts that AI could "drive events that cause a billion deaths" pic.twitter.com/o1k6KqAkS4

— Chief Nerd (@TheChiefNerd) September 25, 2026

Welker put the extinction question to him directly: "Do you believe AI is powerful enough to end all of humanity?"

Gates answered: "AI is certainly powerful enough to drive events that, you know, cause a billion deaths, you know, so even though it's pretty hard to get to 100%, there's never been a weapon as powerful as the combination of people with ill intent using the latest AI tools."

Watch:

"Pretty hard to get to 100 percent." He almost seems disappointed by that.

Gates did not describe a rogue machine deciding to wipe out the species. He framed the threat as people using the newest models as a weapon - then immediately converted that warning into a Washington to-do list.

Asked whether self-regulation was enough, or whether it had to come with legislation, Gates said: "No one thinks self-regulation is enough, so there needs to be legislation passed in Washington. Absolutely. You need law enforcement and the politicians to get into the discussion about what safeguards and monitoring look like and that has to be a required thing and it will be a little bit of overhead for the industry but not a dramatic slowing of what they're doing."

Three days earlier, Gates was on CBS Mornings laying the metaphysical groundwork. Comparisons to past technologies, he said, miss the point. "Most of society is still not aware of how quickly it's moving," he told Gayle King and Norah O'Donnell. "AI is almost an evolutionary event."

Bill Gates makes his boldest prediction yet saying, "AI is almost an evolutionary event" pic.twitter.com/zXgQ6NKmuL

— Chief Nerd (@TheChiefNerd) September 22, 2026

He used the same appearance to appeal to President Trump after he called the most extravagant AI-harm claims a "hoax."

Gates said the president is "in the place that everybody else is in, where at first you're like, 'Isn't this just like the technologies of the past?'"

Then came the sales close: "If he wants to get credit for helping the entire world, the AI topic is his best bet. The leader that brings people together there will deserve positive recognition."

Earlier this month, Gates was already calling AI an "alien intelligence," declaring that "no government is nearly as deep on this as they have to be," and floating an international organization built from nuclear inspections, aviation rules, and ozone treaties.

In that press round he reached for a Hollywood script: "There's all sorts of movies where some aliens are coming, and magically the US and China and everybody comes together to solve the problem. AI is kind of like this alien intelligence. It's here, and we better do like it shows in those movies."

On The Times Tech Pod he said industry should not be trusted to police itself: "It's not the role of the industry to self-regulate or understand the whole-of-society impact that comes out of AI." In a late-August essay he wrote that "the transition to the AI era will be one of the most turbulent times in human history" and that "unfortunately, right now, we are not preparing for it."

Ai is the new big bad threat. For years Gates sold net-zero as civilization's last exit. Then the data-center boom needed power, and last October he asserted that climate change "won't lead to humanity's demise."

The scare machine was not retired. It needed a replacement threat big enough for inspectors and "international coordination." AI arrived on cue: jobs, cyberattacks, companions, bioterror, "loss of control."

The entertainment wing ran the same template. Netflix's The AI Doc was pitched internally as "kind of like 'An Inconvenient Truth' or 'The Social Dilemma' for AI." Lab chiefs and "humane tech" voices walked audiences through impending dread.

Anthropic's Dario Amodei called for a slowdown. Sam Altman piled on. Former Anthropic and OpenAI researcher Jacob Coxon quit and said people building the systems "earnestly believe that it could kill us all before the end of the decade."

Trump has already rejected the pause. The doomer chorus wants the opposite: slow the labs that still lead, write rules in Washington that China will not obey, and call the result "safeguards."

While Gates talks extinction, his foundation writes checks. On September 15 the Gates Foundation pledged at least $1 billion over two years to spread AI through education, health, and agriculture - 40 percent tutoring and classroom tools, 40 percent diagnostics and drug discovery, the rest farming advice and the data layer that makes models work outside English. That money sits inside a previously announced $9 billion-a-year spend.

Gates wrote that left to the market, "AI will be designed by and for the richest people in the world," and that choices in "the next 12 to 18 months" will decide who benefits. The good outcome, he added, "won't happen by accident."

He is NOT predicting anything. He is telling us exactly what his plan is.

— Gr8tfulGoose (@Gr8tfulGoose) September 25, 2026

Sounds like he's worried AI's ability to destroy humanity will outpace his own.

— Political Blasphememes (@PBlasphememes) September 25, 2026

Karim Hawi reached for the last failed countdown: "Same guy that said climate change was going to do that but nothing has happened yet?"

Same guy that said climate change was going to do that but nothing has happened yet?

— Karim Hawi (@karimhawi) September 25, 2026

TheConspiracyReport called the clip priming - "the AI hoax table has been set" - and warned of a convenient pre-election shock.

This is Priming??

Prediction?
The AI hoax table has been set.

Expect a big AI false flag that has real economic consequences ~2 weeks prior to Nov election.

An October surprise for Democrat Socialists and the AI 'Governor me harder, Daddy' cucks.

We must get ahead of this.

— TheConspiracyReport (@TheConspiracyR1) September 25, 2026

Readers can weigh those claims themselves. What does not require a theory is the sequence on tape: invent a body count, declare self-rule insufficient, demand legislation and monitoring, and invite Trump to become the man who "brings people together" with Beijing.

America does not need Gates's alien-invasion summit. It needs the labs here to stay ahead, the rules written by voters rather than foundations, and a hard no to any regime that treats a billion imaginary corpses as the argument for a new police power over code. The last apocalypse did not arrive on schedule. This one is being pre-sold with a clip package and a Sunday booking.

 

* * * FREE SHIPPING!

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/27/2026 - 20:10

TikTok To Pay Alabama At Least $100 Million, Add Teen Limits Before First State Trial

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

TikTok and its creator ByteDance struck a deal Friday with Alabama that will pay the state at least $100 million and force changes in how teenagers use the app, days before what would have been the first state trial over claims the platform was built to addict minors.

TikTok is so powerful its logo alone can mesmerize children. George Chan/Getty Images

The money is due within 45 days. It can climb to $300 million if certain conditions are met, Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall's office said. Alabama was set to select a jury on Monday.

"This is a great day for Alabama parents," Marshall said. "Tonight, they can rest easier knowing real protections are in place to shield their children from the dangers of social media addiction. TikTok has agreed to give parents real control over what their kids see and how much time they spend on the app."

The complaint had accused TikTok of designing addictive features, exposing young users to serious mental harms, and misleading the public about safety.

TikTok did not admit those claims in the papers released Friday.

The company did not immediately return a request for comment.

The deal requires teen accounts in Alabama to have a two-hour daily cap, which parents can further shorten. After 15, 60, and 90 minutes of continuous use, the app must interrupt the session, a feature the office called "productive pauses," intended to break endless scrolling.

Teen accounts will be unavailable from midnight to 6 a.m. Messaging and push alerts face extra limits overnight and during school hours. In addition, cosmetic filters are banned for teen users.

The default feed for those accounts is to remain non-personalized, and teen accounts are to be harder for adults to find. Parents get notice of suspicious contacts. Parental controls are supposed to be easier to use.

Last month, a multi-state Meta deal was set to bring Alabama $117 million on similar youth-harm allegations. Earlier, Roblox paid the state $12.2 million and agreed to tighter age checks and chat rules.

The Alabama deal arrives as other fights progress.

On Sept. 10, a Travis County, Texas, judge ruled that TikTok violated the state's consumer protection law by misleading users about tools meant to keep minors from harmful videos. Judge Cory Liu found Restricted Mode did not work as marketed.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said the case now goes to trial next month to set penalties.

"TikTok sacrificed the safety and innocence of children for engagement and numbers, and now they are being held accountable," Paxton said then.

In early August, TikTok moved to settle three confidential teen mental-health suits. Lawyer Joseph VanZardt said written papers still had to be finished.

The plaintiffs - identified only as S.J., 15, of Illinois; P.M.Y., 15, of New Jersey; and K.D.B., 18, of Mississippi - alleged addiction, depression, self-harm and, in two cases, eating disorders. Roughly 3,300 similar suits sit before Los Angeles Superior Court Judge Carolyn Kuhl. Meta, YouTube, and Snapchat still face an October trial calendar.

A March jury in that same court awarded $4.2 million against Meta and $1.8 million against Google in a related individual case. TikTok settled that one before opening statements.

In August, the Justice Department separately announced TikTok and ByteDance would pay $400 million to resolve Children's Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA) claims. Officials called it one of the largest COPPA recoveries on record. The company did not admit fault.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/27/2026 - 19:20

Homan Says 157,000 Missing Unaccompanied Immigrant Children Located

Authored by Savannah Hulsey Pointer and Jan Jekielek via The Epoch Times,

Around 157,000 children who crossed the border as unaccompanied minors have been found since the start of the Trump administration while many are still missing, White House border czar Tom Homan told The Epoch Times.

White House border czar Tom Homan after an interview with "American Thought Leaders" in Washington on Sept. 24, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

In an interview with senior editor Jan Jekielek for "American Thought Leaders," airing on Sept. 26, he said that just under half a million children were "smuggled" into the United States during the Biden administration.

Homan said officials at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) at the time were proud of the fact that children weren't in detention for long.

"They weren't [held] very long, but the problem is they released them quickly because the sponsors weren't properly vetted," he said, and with caretakers not responding to communications or check-ins, that caused the government to lose track of nearly 300,000 of the children.

Homan said that when President Donald Trump asked him to return to the federal government under his second administration, one of the top directives he was given was to address the problem of missing children.

"He asked me to do three things: secure the border, run deportation operations, and find these kids."

The border czar said he was much more optimistic about the first two directives than he was about finding the children, because his team would have to count on the digital footprint of the sponsors, based on information provided by the sponsors.

"We can find you, we can find me. We own homes, we own cars, we have credit cards. We can find us because we all have a digital footprint. Children don't," Homan said.

Some Democrats on Capitol Hill have objected to the treatment of unaccompanied minors after they've been located.

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) condemned the current administration in June for plans to deport some of the children back to Mexico.

"You have been entrusted with the care and safety of the children placed within the [Office of Refugee Resettlement] network," Wyden said in a letter to the HHS. "Proceeding with this plan knowingly endangers their lives and violates your duty to these vulnerable children."

When officials began searching for the children, they learned that many of the sponsors had given the wrong information, such as home addresses that turned out to be supermarkets, parking lots, or churches. False names had been used for identification, and locating where the children actually were proved to be a massive undertaking.

Homan told The Epoch Times that of the roughly 157,000 children who have been found, more than 20 have died - some due to natural causes, and others from a drug overdose or as a result of violence.

The work isn't done, however, and he said he intends to find every one of the 140,000 still missing children, even those who have aged out of the system.

"Just because you're 18 and 19 doesn't mean they're not in forced labor or sex trafficking, so we're going to keep running down every one of these leads until we find them," the border czar said.

In 40 years of working at the border Homan has seen many victims of human trafficking, but one in particular broke his heart. He said he'll never forgot a 9-year-old girl who was sexually assaulted while making the journey to the United States years ago: "That little girl's never going to be the same again."

"Illegal immigration is not a victimless crime. You don't come across the border without approval and paying off the cartels," he said. "A lot of women and children are sexually assaulted making that journey."

Last month, HHS announced that the Trump administration had located more than 148,000 unaccompanied illegal immigrant children who had been missing after being released into the care of someone in the United States.

A statement from the Department of Homeland Security last November announced an initiative partnering with local law enforcement to conduct welfare checks on the lost children.

Homan told The Epoch Times that despite the monumental task of finding the still missing children, "We're not giving up."

"President Trump has promised that we're going to look at this until the last day of the administration, and the American people can have my word that we're going to do that."

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/27/2026 - 17:30

FDA Commissioner Nominee Says Every Vaccine On US Market Is Safe, Effective

The doctor nominated by President Trump to lead the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) told senators this week that vaccines available in the United States are safe and effective.

Dr. Heidi Overton, the nominee, said that if confirmed, she could use her scientific training and clinical background to describe to the American public what is currently known about products that fall under Food and Drug Administration oversight.

"And what is currently known is that the vaccines that have been approved by the FDA meet the standards for safety and efficacy," she said.

Overton, 37, also endorsed the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine, saying it is not lethal and that it is the best tool in the public health response to measles outbreaks that are ongoing in the United States.

She said that mifepristone, an abortion pill, was safe and effective because it had been approved by the FDA. Overton wrote in a 2023 article that chemical abortion through products such as mifepristone was "dangerous to women," drawing criticism from Democrats in the Senate.

As Zachary Stieber reports further for The Epoch Times, Overton would take the helm of an agency that has been under acting leadership since Dr. Marty Makary stepped down in May.

While signing an executive order in August that encouraged breaking up the measles combination vaccine, Trump told reporters that the vaccine is possibly "quite lethal" and that separate shots for measles, mumps, and rubella appeared to be "not at all lethal but just very effective."

When asked after the signing, the White House declined to provide any citations for Trump's description of the vaccine.

Leaders in the Make America Healthy Again movement recently called for removing vaccines containing messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) technology.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), an outspoken vaccine proponent, has been asking people whom Trump nominated to serve in high-level health positions about Trump's comments, as well as other questions about vaccines, during their confirmation hearings before the Senate Health Committee, the panel he chairs. Chris Klomp, selected to be the top deputy to Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., recently voiced support for vaccines in response to Cassidy, as did Dr. Nicole Saphier, tabbed to become surgeon general.

Cassidy said on Sept. 24 that Kennedy, whom he voted for, made him guarantees but later backtracked on those promises, citing directives from the president.

Kennedy's department did not return a request for comment.

Cassidy asked Overton how she would handle it if she made guarantees and the president then directed her to go against them.

"I've had robust discussions with the president," said Overton, who was part of Trump's first administration.

"I would give him my best advice, and I would follow the statutory requirements for the role of FDA commissioner regarding individual product determinations for safety and efficacy, and that would be what would guide every decision if confirmed to this role."

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/27/2026 - 12:15

Consumer Credit Stress: What The Data Really Shows

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

A viral stat claims credit card delinquencies just hit their worst level since 2008. However, the New York Fed’s own data shows the opposite, and the real consumer credit stress is hiding exactly where the headlines aren’t looking.

A number has been making the rounds all year, and it’s misleading. The claim: roughly 13% of credit card balances are 90 days or more past due, the worst since 2008. Here’s the twist. That number is real, and it comes straight from the New York Fed. It just doesn’t mean what the scary charts say it means.

Sorting the real signal from the viral one matters because one of them belongs in your portfolio decisions and the other belongs in the trash.

Where The Scary Number Comes From

Let’s start with the Q2 2026 Household Debt and Credit Report, released August 11. Total household debt actually fell $13 billion on the quarter, a rounding error of 0.1%, to $18.8 trillion. Credit card balances rose $21 billion to $1.26 trillion, up 1.7%. So far, nothing that looks like a crisis.

However, this is the point where you are hit with the delinquency rate that everyone screenshots. The share of card balances 90 days or more past due has climbed from 7.6% in late 2022 to 12.8%. That is a real figure from the Fed’s data, and it’s the source the viral posts were reaching for without knowing it. Here’s the problem with reading it as a crisis. The Fed published a companion piece the same day, and its own economists took the number apart.

Crucially, they draw a very clear distinction between a “stock” measure and a “flow” measure. The stock measure simply counts every delinquent dollar remaining on a credit report, including old charged-off debts that lenders keep reporting for years. The flow measure counts how much debt newly goes bad each quarter. The flow indicates how households are actually doing, and it has been roughly flat since 2024. It rose from 6.93% to 6.97% year over year. That’s not an acceleration. That’s noise.

The obvious question is: “Then why is the stock number climbing?”

The answer is that lenders now report charged-off debt to the bureaus far longer than they used to. From 2004 through 2012, only about 40% of charged-off balances were still reported a year later. By 2024, that figure had doubled to 80%. Strip those stale balances out, and the stock delinquency rate falls right back in line with the flow. As usual, when everyone agrees on something, something else is usually going on. In this case, the crowd agreed on a chart that the people who built it were quietly warning you not to trust. I’ve made the same point before about the gap between what the data says and what the tape feels like, in the consumer sentiment disconnect.

(The “stock” delinquency measure that went viral reads 12.8%, but it counts years of stale charged-off debt. The “flow” of new delinquencies, the honest read on current stress, sits at 6.97% and has been flat since 2024. Source: New York Fed, Q2 2026)

“When the question is ‘how are households doing right now?’ the flow delinquency rates provide a more accurate view of current consumer repayment behavior. By those measures, the pace of credit card delinquency is elevated but has been largely stable since 2024.” – Lee, Mangrum, Scally, Sinha and van der Klaauw, New York Fed Liberty Street Economics

The Consumer Credit Stress That’s Actually Real

Dismissing the meme doesn’t mean the consumer is fine. Parts of the consumer are cracking. The stress is REAL. It just isn’t spread evenly across the system, and the aggregate delinquency chart hides that. Dig below the surface, and you find a household sector splitting in two, with the top half spending comfortably and the bottom half running on fumes.

The savings data gives us the clearest read into what is actually happening. In July, the personal saving rate fell to 3.0% of disposable income, with total personal saving of $712.0 billion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Put that in context. For most of the decade before the pandemic, households saved 7% to 8% of income. The rate spiked above 16% in 2020 when stimulus landed, and there was nowhere to spend it. It has bled lower ever since. A 3.0% print is near the lowest reading in 20 years.

Notably, a thin savings rate isn’t a crisis on its own. There are plenty of households that carry very little cash and never miss a payment. However, it does change the math on resilience. When the family car breaks down or a parent’s work hours get reduced, a family saving 8% of its income can absorb the hit. Conversely, a family that only saves 3% of its income reaches for a credit card more quickly. That’s the mechanism, and it’s why the delinquency increases we have seen are showing up first among subprime and lower-income borrowers, while prime credit performance has barely moved.

The Two-Speed Consumer, In One Table

The cleanest way to see the gap is to line up the viral claim against what the primary sources report. Almost every week, someone sends me a chart or a screenshot from somewhere, showing the consumer on the edge of collapse. The data, however, continues to tell a more specific story.

That split is the whole story, and it shows up in spending, too. The top 10% of earners now drive 49.2% of all consumer spending, the highest share since Moody’s began collecting data in 1989, up from about 36% three decades ago. Meanwhile, spending by households earning under $175,000 has barely grown in real terms since the pandemic. One consumer is fine. The other is the one filling up the subprime delinquency buckets.

The top decile drives 49.2% of all consumer spending, the highest share since 1989 and up from about 36% three decades ago. The bottom 80% has barely grown their spending in real terms. That’s the two-speed consumer in one picture.- Source: Moody’s Analytics, 2025

“Consumer credit stress is real. It’s just wearing a name tag that says subprime, and the headline chart keeps reading it as systemic.”

Where The Bears Are Right

I readily admit that the bearish case has a valid point. They state that aggregate data lags current realities. Therefore, by the time the Fed’s quarterly report confirms a broad deterioration, the damage is already done. Furthermore, a 3.0% savings rate means the marginal household has no shock absorber left.

If you then layer on a labor market that ran soft through the summer, with June and July payrolls revised down to 31,000 and 21,000 before August rebounded to 162,000, you have the setup for spending to roll over faster than the smoothed data will admit.

Those are all valid points. However, here’s the problem with treating it as today’s reality. It’s a forecast about tomorrow, not a reading of the current tape. The same case was made in 2023 and again in 2024. Each time, behavior beat feelings and spending held firm. I’m reasonably confident the low-end consumer market will continue to deteriorate from here. I’m far less confident it will drag down the aggregate over the next two quarters, because the prime borrower, who does most of the spending, is still in good shape.

What Consumer Credit Stress Means For Investors

So what do you actually do with this information?

1. Stop trading off the scary screenshot. A K-shaped consumer calls for a scalpel, not a sledgehammer. The businesses exposed to the bottom third of the income distribution, dollar stores, subprime lenders, buy-now-pay-later names, and lower-end restaurants, are where the stress shows up first and hits margins hardest. That’s a real and specific risk you can underwrite.
2. Respect the split rather than betting the whole book on one side. Higher-end consumer names and companies serving households with intact balance sheets are a different animal. Positioning for a total consumer collapse has been a losing trade for three years running. So has assuming everything is fine. The trade is the divergence itself.
3. Lastly, keep the real watchlist in front of you. Not the meme number. Watch the savings rate, the subprime delinquency trend, the quarterly New York Fed report, and retailer margin guidance through earnings season. We covered the deeper split between what households say and what they do in our look at the consumer sentiment disconnect, and in the piece on record retail inflows. The through line is consistent. Behavior beats feelings, and primary data beats viral charts.

The bottom line is this. The consumer credit stress story deserves your attention, but only the true version. A 3% savings rate indicates the cushion is thin, and the low end is exposed. The New York Fed data tells you this is a distribution problem, not a solvency crisis, at least for now. The moment the prime borrower starts slipping in the quarterly print, the calculus changes, and that’s the number that will tell you when to lean out.

If this raises questions about how your own portfolio is positioned for a two-speed consumer and a softening labor market, that’s the conversation we have with investors every day. Our process starts with your complete financial picture, not just your investment account. Schedule a complimentary portfolio review, and let’s pressure-test your exposure together.

Questions This Article Answers

Are credit card delinquencies really the worst since 2008? Only by one measure. The New York Fed’s “stock” delinquency rate, which counts all reported balances 90+ days past due, hit 12.8% in Q2 2026. That measure is inflated by old charged-off debt that lenders now report for far longer. The “flow” of new delinquencies, a better read on current stress, has been roughly flat since 2024 at just under 7%.

What’s the difference between stock and flow delinquency? The stock measure is the share of all outstanding balances currently marked delinquent, including stale charged-off debt. The flow measure is the amount of debt that goes bad each quarter. The flow tells you how households are doing right now, and the Fed’s own economists say it’s the more accurate gauge of current repayment behavior.

Is the U.S. consumer actually in trouble? Part of it. The stress is concentrated in subprime and lower-income households, where the 3.0% saving rate leaves no cushion. Prime borrowers, who account for most spending, are still in good shape. It’s a K-shaped consumer, not a system-wide credit event.

What should investors watch instead of the viral chart? The flow delinquency rate, the subprime delinquency trend, the quarterly New York Fed report, the personal saving rate, and retailer margin guidance. Those tell you when the stress is spreading from the low end into the prime borrower, which is the turn that actually matters for portfolios.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/27/2026 - 11:40

DHS Ends Biden-Era Solicitation Of Donations For Illegal Aliens In Custody

Authored by Catherine Salgado via PJ Media,

Under the Biden administration, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) was asking for and accepting private donations for illegal aliens in federal custody. The Trump administration just realized it had never officially ended that directive, so it did so this week to remove any lingering confusion.

CBP Commissioner Rodney Scott confirmed to Fox News correspondent Bill Melugin on Wednesday that he issued a memo officially axing the policy. Scott offered as an excuse for its creation that the "elevated number of aliens encountered, processed and held in our facilities" during the Biden-Harris era necessitated private supplements to the billions of taxpayer dollars spent on trafficking criminal foreigners into America.

But times have changed, thank goodness.

"This order is no longer needed or appropriate. With the significant decrease in encounters and apprehensions, CBP no longer requires private donations or gifts for distribution to aliens in custody," Scott observed.

"Additionally, this order does not align with the Trump administration's enforcement posture at our borders. For these reasons, I am withdrawing CBP from DHS Delegation 07107, effective immediately."

John K. Tien, Joe Biden's deputy secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, inaugurated the controversial policy in May 2022. CBP told Melugin that agency leadership did not recall that the policy existed until a recent reminder. That's probably partly due to changes in top leadership since Donald Trump took office.

The Biden Administration manufactured a crisis at our southern border - allowing millions of unvetted criminal aliens to flood our towns and neighborhoods. With our southern border now secure thanks to President @realDonaldTrump, @CBP and @DHSgov, ICE will continue to remove these illegal aliens from the interior. Our work to Defend the Homeland continues.

— U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (@ICEgov) February 17, 2026

Even the title of the newly terminated policy is so obviously Democrat: "Delegation to Solicit, Accept and Utilize Gifts Related to the Care of Undocumented Noncitizens in CBP and ICE Custody."

Calling illegal alien criminals "undocumented" is a favorite Orwellian term among wokies, as if the aliens innocently forgot to complete some unnecessary paperwork.

What Joe Biden and the Democrats did to our country is unforgivable: "Fed Reserve working paper suggests Biden illegal immigrant wave caused 30% of home price increases" https://t.co/d1RnUOESRk

— White House Press Office (@PressSec) July 8, 2026

Watchdog estimates indicate that the Department of Health and Human Services - responsible for trafficking over 320,000 children - alone spent some $22.6 billion on illegal aliens during the Biden era. In early 2024, Newsweek reported that illegal immigration was costing the U.S. $150.7 billion annually across federal, state, and local governments.

And yet, despite all that, CBP says it still needed supplementation from private funds.

That is the scale of the mass illegal alien invasion of our country during the Biden administration.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/27/2026 - 10:30