Statement here.

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Here are the projections.  
Since the last projections were released, economic growth, the unemployment rate and inflation all have been close to expectations.
The BEA's estimate for first half 2025 GDP showed real growth at 1.4% annualized. Most estimates for Q3 GDP are around 2%.  That would put the real growth for the first three quarters at 1.6% annualized - above the top of end of the June projections.  The FOMC revised up Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 GDP growth slightly.
GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1 Projection Date202520262027 Sept 20251.4 to 1.71.7 to 2.11.8 to 2.0Jun 20251.2 to 1.51.5 to 1.81.7 to 2.0 1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.3% in August.  The unemployment rate will likely increase further this year.  This was unrevised.
Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2 Projection Date202520262027 Sept 20254.4 to 4.54.4 to 4.54.2 to 4.4Jun 20254.4 to 4.54.3 to 4.64.2 to 4.6 2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of July 2025, PCE inflation increased 2.6% year-over-year (YoY), unchanged from 2.6% YoY in June. There will likely be some further increases in the 2nd half of 2025, and the FOMC narrowed the range.
Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1 Projection Date202520262027 Sept 20252.9 to 3.02.4-2.72.0 to 2.2Jun 20252.8 to 3.22.3-2.62.0 to 2.2
PCE core inflation increased 2.9% YoY in July, up from 2.8% YoY in June.  There will likely be further increase in core PCE inflation and the FOMC narrowed the range.
Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1 Projection Date202520262027 Sept 20253.0 to 3.22.5-2.72.0 to 2.2Jun 20252.9 to 3.42.3-2.62.0 to 2.2

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

FOMC Statement:

Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen.

In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4 to 4‑1/4 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; Jeffrey R. Schmid; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting.
emphasis added

US Regulators Investigate Tesla Door Handles After Complaints Of Entrapment

In what could be a gentle reminder to Elon Musk that President Trump is still the boss, the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has opened an investigation into Tesla’s electric door handles, focusing on 2021 Model Y vehicles, according to Bloomberg.

Regulators say they are examining whether doors become inoperative after low-voltage battery failures, leaving occupants unable to get in or out.

“This investigation will also assess the approach used by Tesla to supply power to the door locks and the reliability of the applicable power supplies,” NHTSA said. The agency noted that every Tesla sold in the US uses electrically powered doors.

Bloomberg recently reported more than 140 complaints since 2018 about Tesla doors getting stuck or failing, including cases where parents could not retrieve children from the back seat. NHTSA cited nine “failure reports,” seven of which matched Bloomberg’s findings. “Entrapment in a vehicle is particularly concerning in emergency situations, such as when children are entrapped in a hot vehicle,” the agency said.

Bloomberg writes that owners told regulators they sometimes broke windows to reach trapped passengers. “No one should have to resort to breaking the windows to get into their own car when their child or pet is trapped inside because the door handles fail to work,” said Rosemary Shahan, president of Consumers for Auto Reliability and Safety.

Tesla has not commented on the probe. Chair Robyn Denholm, asked last week about Bloomberg’s investigation, said only that the board “takes seriously” any safety incidents.

Safety advocates argue that Tesla’s manual release latches are difficult to find in emergencies. Michael Brooks of the Center for Auto Safety said: “The fact that manual release locations are noted in the owner’s manual is not sufficient to advise passengers or ride-share occupants, who do not have a chance to read the manual when a fire or other emergency circumstance is in progress.”

China and Europe have also increased scrutiny of electric and flush door-handle designs, warning they can complicate rescue efforts. NHTSA said it will “continue to monitor any reports of entrapment involving opening doors from inside of the vehicle” and will “take further action as needed.”

The door-handle probe adds to multiple US investigations into Tesla, including ongoing reviews of Autopilot and Full Self-Driving safety. There have been few, if any, updates on legacy probes of Musk's company since President Trump has been in office.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 13:40

EU Proposes Freezing Israel Trade Pact As Smotrich Declares Gaza 'Real Estate Bonanza'

On Wednesday the European Commission presented a proposal for new tariffs and sanctions aimed at pressuring Israel to quickly end its military operations in Gaza, in addition to sanctions measures on two Israeli ministers known for their fiery anti-Palestinian rhetoric.

"The horrific events taking place in Gaza on a daily basis must stop," EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said after presenting the proposal to the EU Council. "There needs to be an immediate ceasefire, unrestrained access for all humanitarian aid, and the release of all hostages held by Hamas."

The measures would if implemented constitute a major, historic blow to EU-Israel relations. The commission appears to be largely responding to the new Gaza City offensive, confirmed to be in full swing this week, and the major United Nations investigation just released which concluded that Israel is guilty of genocide.

"We're not proposing to suspend trade with Israel, we are proposing to suspend trade preferences," said a senior unnamed European official.

A decades-long deal and trade-related pillar of the Israel-EU Association Agreement is reportedly what's on the chopping block. According to Middle East Eye:

Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said on Wednesday that if a qualified majority is reached, the EU will impose 230m euros ($166m) tariffs on 37 percent of the 15.9bn euros of the EU’s imports from Israel, instead of free trade. 

Israel is the EU's largest trade partner. In 2024, EU-Israel trade reached a record 42.6bn euros, of which 37 percent is “preferential treatment”, according to the EU's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas.  

"So definitely this step will have a high cost for Israel," Kallas told Euronews on Tuesday.

The two ministers being targeted in the potential new measures are National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. They would face asset freezes and a blanket travel ban for travel within the European Union.

Smotrich's latest Wednesday comments will not at all help his case in the eyes of European officials. He has newly stated that the Gaza Strip that the Gaza Strip is a "real estate bonanza." Further he claimed to be in talks with the Americans on how to divide the enclave up once the Palestinians are kicked out.

There is "a real estate bonanza" in Gaza that "pays for itself" and he has "already started negotiations with the Americans," he said at a conference in Tel Aviv, according to local media.

"We have poured a lot of money into this war. We have to see how we are dividing up the land in percentages," Smotrich said, explaining that "the demolition, the first stage in the city’s renewal, we have already done. Now we just need to build."

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 12:40



 

 

At the Money: Filtering Noisy News (September 17, 2025)

How can investors find usable signal amidst all of the outrageous, algorithm-driven, clickbait? Noisy headlines can be a distraction from your long-term goals.

Full transcript below.

~~~

About this week’s guest:

Michael Hiltzik covers business for the Los Angeles Times, is a two-time winner of the Gerald Loeb Award and has authored numerous books on business.

For more info, see:

Professional Bio

Personal website

Twitter

~~~

Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

 

 

 

Transcript:

 

Investors face a flood of noisy news, social media, tv, radio, and more. None of it is tailored to you in particular. Much of it appears to be outrageous, algorithm-driven, clickbait. What’s an investor supposed to do to help us navigate this? Let’s bring in Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter Michael Hiltzik. He covers business for the Los Angeles Times.

He’s a two-time winner of the Gerald Loeb Award, as well as the author of numerous books on finance. So Michael, let, let’s start with this endless sea of noise. How do you navigate this? How do you prioritize what’s important and what’s not? Well, uh, you know, it used to be said that, uh, that newspaper readers know how to read their newspaper.

You know, they, they sort of, uh, you know, assess what they see there. Uh, you know, how it conforms to their own, uh, worldviews, how it conforms to what they see in, in. In the outside wide world, uh, of, of reality. And I think that’s probably more important now than it ever has been before. Um, newspaper reports, uh, uh, of data are always second-order, uh, reports.

It’s reporter who’s, uh, looked at the data or, uh, an editor has dropped a, a page or sent an email, uh, and said, you know, do something on this report from. This, that, or the other. Um, and I think, uh, you, you always have to assess the source as we, we’ve talked about. You know, if, uh, we’re talking about a trade organization, well, a trade organization is basically, uh, a PR organization and it’s going to put its own spin on whatever number is it.

It cooks up and sometimes it puts spin on numbers even before they’re cooked up. Uh, if a trade organization is citing a study. From a supposedly independent group, I want to know if they commissioned this study or who commissioned it. And, uh, uh, that, that’s a mixture part of my assessment. And, and I always ask, uh, you know, if I’m calling, uh, lobbyists and saying, you know, you just cited this, uh, you know, supposedly third-party, um, uh, analysis.

You know, is it yours? Did you commission this? And, you know, if they’re honest, they’ll. Don’t tell me. Uh, I just, just one, you know, into my email box, I think just the other day and, and I’ve asked, but haven’t gotten a reply. So, uh, so that’s, that’s very important and, and I think, uh, readers have to understand that more than ever before.

Certainly, you know, more than in my long career. Uh, re reporters are over overworked. Uh, they don’t have the time to do their homework. Uh, so they will basically take a press release from some data source and, uh. Uh, uh, regurgitate it. Um, so I think it’s, uh, important for readers to do what I do, which is to check the source and if they can go to the raw material and make a judgment for themselves, and intelligent investors should be able to do that.

So, so that raises a, an obvious question. How do you tell which sources are trustworthy? Who do you put on your all star list? Who do you eliminate? Well, there are a few sources, economic sources. Were on my All star list. You know, you and, and your folks, you know, ’cause I quote you with some, uh, frequency. Uh, there are other organizations that have shown, uh, you know, through the test of time to have been, to have integrity and how they interpret data.

Uh, and um, and then there were some where you just, um, want to factor in what you know about their ideology, their, um, their, their funders, um, uh, their history and that, uh, just, you know, those simple inquiries. We’ll tell you a lot about how you wanna assess information that, that comes at you from all these sources.

You, you mentioned reporters are pressed for time, so are investors. You’re kind of hinting at, hey, this requires some time, effort, and work in order to figure out what is a credible source of reliable news and what is a little more, let’s just call it unreliable. Well. You know, I think I, I remember, you know, reading, uh, a Andy Tobias’s book, uh, you know, probably one of its earliest, uh, incarnations where he said, you know, what, what do you do if, uh, a broker comes to you, you know, cold call or someone, uh.

 

Uh, you, you know, and pitches, uh, an investment for you and what his advice was to say, well, you know, don’t invest in that investment, but see how it does. And if it’s done well, then maybe you wanna listen to this guy, or, or, uh, cow a little bit more closely the next time. And I think that, uh, that’s sort of a good idea more generally.

 

Um. You know, some reports will be refuted or debunked fairly, uh, quickly, and some of these sources will compile a record of inaccuracy or dishonesty. Um, and some will compile a record of reliability. And, uh, it takes time, it takes attention, uh, and, uh, I think. Investors, like readers and reporters need to do their homework, and we just see that be being more and more difficult or just happening a lot less than it, than it used to.

 

I, I’ve been noticing what, at least to me, it seems like more than ever anecdotes and one-off stories and narrative tells, they just seem to be increasingly popular. How do you navigate through what is a compelling story? My, my math friends always say. N equals one. All right. So you have not a data series, but that’s one anecdote.

How do you, how do you manage that? Uh, that’s right. And sometimes the, the N one is, is oneself, so, so yeah. Well, um, look, basically, um. I, I’ve always been sort of averse to man on the street stories, um, because, you know, a man on the street or a woman on the street that’s, that is, that is an n equals one, and you really have no idea what, you can’t really always tell what questions have been asked, what this person knows.

We’ve certainly seen, you know, certainly during the inflation, uh, era, uh, under, uh, of the last few years, we saw a lot of, uh, uh, interviews with families in which they talked about how much they’re spending on this or that commodity or, uh, or, or produce and, and got it totally wrong. Um, and um, so I, I think that people can sort of.

Compare what they’re reading to their own experience and if it’s really at odds that that’s important to keep in mind. So, um, I, I think. I mean, I’ve gone, you know, I’ve been assigned to do Man on the street, uh, stories. But, um, you know, when they work, it’s because you, you have a narrow subject and you are dealing with people who are in a position to know the answers to the questions you are talking about, but sort of throwing in.

 

You know, somebody who’s standing online or, you know, I used to say, I was always suspicious of stories that quoted, um, the, uh, the driver who brought the, the reporter from the airport to the first class hotel in town. And we used to see that when I was in Africa. You know, I could tell, uh, you know, the, you know, the chauffeur, you know, sometimes, you know, was he was labeled to, to hide.

 

But, uh, yeah. So, um, you wanna make sure that you, you know, if there’s, if there are interviews with individuals or families or couples, that there’s more than one and that, uh, they seem to actually know what they’re talking about and, and they’re talking about their own experiences and that they sound plausible.

 

Uh, these are wrong. You know, the sort of tests that we have to conduct in our, uh, in our daily lives. What about social media? How do we avoid the worst aspects of algorithmic hype that seems to work its way into mainstream media as well? Uh, yeah, well certainly mainstream media stories that rely on social media, uh, um, sourcing, uh, very suspect.

 

Um, social media. Um, look, you know, I was always a fan of Twitter. Uh, I, I would, I I still do, you know, I still am a fan. I think Twitter, you know, for all its faults still has a critical mass that alternatives like, um, um, blue Sky just haven’t quite reached. Um, so, uh, you know, with, with X. As we call it, I think you can sort of wean out the, the wild nonsense.

 

Um, uh, I always liked X because I could curate my, uh, my tweet, uh. Uh, timeline, um, and rely on sources on that platform that, that I had come to know. It’s more and more difficult now and it’s harder to, uh, sort of, uh, you know, get rid of, uh, you know, some of the straws. But, um. You know, there are websites that, uh, that I go back to over and over again.

 

They’re not all economic websites. Sometimes they’re, um, uh, writers who think the way I do. So I, you know, I get reinforcement where, where I need it. Um, and then there are some that I just ignore. Um, you know, I’m, you know, I have more time to myself because I’m not paying any attention to a lot of this stuff.

 

Yeah. I found on Twitter. Curating your own lists on different topics. For me, it’s the economy, it’s data and analytics. It’s behavioral finance. There are experts out there talking about subjects that I like, and at least it, it, it’s, there’s some filtering process by creating a list. It’s not gonna stop spam and other junk stuff from coming through.

 

Um, all right, so we’re talking about social media. I guess if we’re talking about news and problems, we have to discuss ai, not just the hallucination, but the risk that that news story you’re reading is literally fake news. Just something created by AI cheaply. How do we navigate a world where AI is cranking out?

 

A lot of artificial intelligence is cranking out a lot of. News that isn’t exactly following the rules of journalism. Yeah. I should tell you that I am an AI skeptic. Yeah. I think, uh, you know, some large percentage of AI claims by, um, uh, by developers and by clients is, is marketing in the same way that, you know, dot com used to be the big marketing troop.

 

Sure. Um, 25 years ago now. Um, and so a lot of what is pitched as AI is not really ai, and none of it is intelligence. Um, I’m not sure I, I I’m of two minds about whether people are gonna become better at, uh, uh, at detecting AI creation, or, or worse, I think at the moment. Uh. There, there are giveaways that, uh, anyone can see.

 

Um, you know, in the, sometimes in the language that’s used, sometimes in the images that are created, we see this over and over again. Just, you know, cl clearly AI, hallucinations. Um, so, uh, uh, you know, right now there’s an AI craze, uh, in, in industry and including in the news industry, and I think that’s going to be, uh, a problem.

 

I think it’s going to go bad. And, uh, I, I think, you know, relying on AI is going to be something that, you know, when we look at it in the rear view mirror, we’re gonna say, what, what were we thinking? You know, why did we spend any money on this? So, to wrap up, apply common sense to your consumption of news.

 

Figure out who’s trustworthy, what sources are accurate. Put the time and effort in to identifying who’s worthy of your time and trust. Be wary of social media. Be wary of ai, and don’t be afraid to follow people, uh, who have bylines that you trust rather than just blindly paying attention to any particular media source.

 

It’s worth understanding what you’re consuming and why, and staying on the right side of accuracy. If I’m Barry Ritholtz, you are listening to Bloomberg’s at the Money.

The post At the Money: Filtering Noisy News appeared first on The Big Picture.

Goldman: Four Questions Investors Are Asking About Walmart 

At the start of September, Goldman hosted its 32nd annual Global Retailing Conference, followed by last week's technology forum. It's been a packed first half of the month for Goldman analysts, who have been busy digesting comments from corporate executives and sharing key takeaways with clients on how business leaders see the evolving world. 

On Monday, Goldman Sachs Managing Director Kate McShane penned a note for clients about the four key questions investors had following Walmart's appearances at its retail and technology conferences.

McShane noted that the mega-retailer is on track to deliver stronger-than-expected results in both the near term and the long term. She expects Walmart to sustain top-line growth of at least 4% while expanding operating income at a high-single- to low-double-digit pace.

She also highlighted that profitability in US e-commerce, which turned positive in the first quarter and doubled in the second, is being driven by lower delivery costs and growth in alternative revenue streams such as its marketplace, data ventures, media unit, and WMT+ subscription service. 

McShane maintains a "Buy" rating on the stock, with a 12-month price target of $114.

Here are the four most critical questions investors were asking about Walmart following the conferences:

1. How is Walmart's competitive positioning v. Amazon, especially when it comes to delivery?

Walmart, while acknowledging Amazon as a formidable competitor, is confident that their combination of value, its fresh and produce merchandise offering and its speed are key differentiators to their competitive position. Walmart can deliver to 94% of US households in 3 hours or less, with the company expecting that to expand to 95% by year-end. Looking at scheduled deliveries, which are a large part of Walmart's business, about one-third are fast (3 hours or less), with 25% of fast deliveries now occurring in 30 minutes. Walmart has observed that when customers utilize fast delivery, their frequency starts to increase and their basket composition often changes; while many customers start with fresh food, after using fast delivery, they may also purchase general merchandise (i.e., fashion, home goods).

2. How is Walmart's marketplace differentiated both for buyers and sellers?

A key differentiator for Walmart's marketplace versus peers is its grocery offering, given that grocery items move the fastest and Walmart is the largest grocer in the US. To further differentiate themselves from others the company is now displaying select Marketplace seller items in stores, with a QR code to order the item through the Walmart app. These codes allow customers to access digital tools, services and an extended online assortment. Walmart is bringing the extended Marketplace aisle into stores, starting with a few items on display. Customers can purchase through the Walmart app and even have their items professionally installed. And finally for sellers, they offer two services; Walmart Fulfillment System and Data Ventures. When a seller joins the Walmart Fulfillment System, it helps lift a seller's GMV 50% on average. Data ventures can provide sellers with valuable insights on their selling trends.

Per management, there is a symbiotic relationship between eCommerce and WMT's higher margin businesses (i.e., advertising, data, membership, marketplace, fulfillment); as eCommerce grows, WMT has a greater opportunity to expand these higher margin businesses, and the company can reinvest those dollars into experience and price.

3. What consumer trends are Walmart seeing?

US consumer behavior has been generally consistent. In 2Q, WMT saw ongoing share gains across key categories and all income cohorts, with upper income households contributing the largest gains. The company is seeing strong demand from middle to upper income consumers, while the middle to lower income has experienced a bit of stress, calling out a behavioral change around items with higher costs due to tariffs. That said, consumers have held up well, and WMT expects to see similar trends for the balance of the year. In terms of quarter-to-date trends, WMT started this quarter with similar strength on the top line, noting that 2Q trends are extending into 3Q.

Insights from HundredX

We supplement our work with data from HundredX, a mission-based data and insights company that takes an innovative approach to monitoring consumer perceptions and gathering consumer feedback to understand trends across 80+ industries and 3,000+ brands. HundredX analyzes collective opinions of everyday customers and evaluates how their priorities influence purchasing decisions and attitudes toward businesses and brands.

4. How is Walmart thinking about price in 2H?

In the US, inflation is in the +LSD range, following price increases in food categories for multiple years now. Looking to general merchandise, prices went up as supply chains were stretched after the pandemic, which was followed by a decline in prices. In the current tariff environment, WMT has seen a gradual increase in cost levels in general merchandise, leading to single-digit inflation. Per management, the elasticity response has been better than expected, noting that when prices go up, units go down correspondingly, but consumers move from one item or category to another as prices change. As of the end of July, about one-third of WMT's assortment would have had a price change, and by the time of 1Q26, it is expected be the full base. When tariffs became a possibility, WMT started value engineering its 3Q/4Q assortment, taking out costs and holding prices when possible. Per management, WMT's price gaps remain consistent, noting that the company made investments a few years ago to establish a position and has maintained that. Looking at the GS grocery pricing survey (ran by Leah Jordan), price gaps for WMT widened in August to -13.6%, versus an average of -11.9% for the last 12 months indicating to us that WMT is focused on providing more value through food in order to keep overall prices low for the consumer and take more share.

These questions come as Walmart shares have gained 15% year-to-date, though the stock remains below the peak reached in mid-February.

. . . 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 11:40

Dr Strangecurve

By Michael Every of Rabobank

As Christian Lawrence notes in ‘Under Pressure’, we expect a 25bps rate cut today. However, as the Wall Street Journal puts it, this is “the strangest Fed meeting in years” as “Consequential and contentious debates over the path ahead on rates are playing out under the glare of extraordinary political drama.” Indeed, to project dots, might future Fed meetings look like The Apprentice?

Or could it be the War Room from Dr Strangelove? To quote General Clemenceau as quoted in that movie, “War is too important to be left to the generals.” If so, when do we do monetary policy too? “Gentlemen, you can’t set rates in here! This is the FOMC Room!” That development would make the next Fed Chair ‘Dr Strangecurve’… which gold is of course pricing for.

Meanwhile, the Great Game continues to come into sharper focus in global War Rooms for those not staring too hard at lines on their Bloomberg screens.

The SCMP headline today is, ‘As the US retreats, can Xi Jinping’s new initiative shape the future world order?’ They add, “Analysts say the Global Governance Initiative reflects China’s ambitions to shape a multipolar world, but it needs more substance to avoid becoming an ‘empty shell’.”

That’s as ‘Greenland’s defenses are being bolstered against Russia and China, but Trump may be the real target’ (CNN) – I’m sure the Pentagon is terrified if so; the US warned Canada of potential negative consequences if it dumps F-35 fighter jets; Israel presented Syria with a proposal for a new security agreement, which it hasn’t yet replied to; and Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu have refused to sign the defense treaties with Australia it had drawn up for them.

In short, the boundaries of emergent geopolitical blocs continue to be thrashed out in real time alongside those of the matching geoeconomics.

There, the SCMP claims a Trump China trip many hinge on Boeing and soybean deals and that “significant progress” has been made. Recall the Farce One Trade Deal which was an irrelevant thing in markets nearly six years ago? It’s unlikely to play out again, even as Trump extended TikTok’s deadline as US investors seem set to take 80% control of it while the actual algorithm stays with China.

Rather, the US is beginning the review of trade deal with Canada and Mexico – expect far stronger measures to ringfence US production in some key sectors and guidance on transshipment from outside the bloc. PM Carney reportedly told Anglo American to move its HQ to Canada for the Teck deal approval, which is Anglo American in the broadest sense. The UK has paused its push for a 0% US tariff on steel, which it makes very little of, as PM Starmer prefers to lock in a “permanent” 25% rate, but the Trump state visit is going to see US tech giants pledge billions for UK AI infrastructure. Moreover, the US government will start a multibillion mining initiative for critical minerals via the IDFC and hedge fund Orion.

The EU and Indonesia are set to agree a trade deal next week, which the Financial Times claims is to “seek to reduce reliance on the US.” Except both economies want to be net exporters, so won’t import much from the other, especially against public protests and political populism, and both signed trade deals with the US which don’t allow them to export anything to it they import in volume from China. As such, an EU-Indonesia trade deal is still a step towards a US-centric trading bloc. Just don’t expect many headlines saying so from Brussels or Jakarta.

The EU will reportedly adopt new sanctions against Israel today, which could involve removing trade privileges. As the EU runs hefty trade and services surpluses with Israel, that could mean it takes the larger economic blow should things escalate, while Israel is a key source of defence tech, such as Iron Dome, that a Europe trying to rearm rapidly may have to buy from the US, which will continue to work with Israel, or duplicate domestically at higher cost, and much more slowly.

In Australia, Khapra beetle, a threat to grains industry, was just discovered in imported nappy pants. Moreover, a top cyber expert says, “China could disable or detonate Aussie EVs.” He notes, “Take off the safety features of household batteries so that they overcharge. Take off those same safety features for electric vehicles. Just turn them off from the manufacturer so that those vehicles explode,” and argues the nature of war isn’t changing, but technology is. Of course that’s just paranoia or is only for Aussie EVs… right?

In markets, the recently fired US BLS chief has just called her dismissal a “dangerous step”, claiming she wanted to modernize federal statistics but the agency “got caught in DOGE’s crosshairs.” Well, now there are lots of crosshairs to get caught in, or so it seems. How many of them are the BLS taking into account? Indeed, while timely and accurate economic data are regarded as essential, in a contested geopolitical and geoeconomic environment, will it be in the best interests of governments to share them?

For those quoting Dr Strangelove’s “Of course, the whole point of a doomsday machine is lost if you keep it a secret! Why didn’t you tell the world, eh?”, or shrieking “because markets!”, have you noticed what’s happened with some key data series in China in recent years, or in Russia since the war started? Logically, would you share targetable signs of economic weakness or strength via online data platforms that the other side can read and model as its leisure? Do you show other market players your books?

If not, what makes you sure you will see the real numbers going forwards as the West embraces more bloc-based realpolitik neo-mercantilism? More darkly, what makes you think you do now - “because markets”?

Over to you, Dr Strangecurve.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 11:20

General Mills Beats On Profit, Reaffirms Outlook Amid Sluggish Sales And At-Home Dining Trend

General Mills reported first-quarter earnings that exceeded Wall Street's expectations, driven by a divestiture gain, despite slower sales. The maker of Cheerios and Blue Buffalo reaffirmed its full-year outlook, cautioning that EPS will remain under pressure as it invests to reignite volume-driven organic net sales growth. Notably, GIS executives have warned about a continued shift toward consumers eating at home rather than spending at restaurants. This is troubling news as the back-to-school season gets underway and the holiday shopping season begins in about two and a half months.

Besides Cheerios and Blue Buffalo, GIS also controls other top brands, including Cinnamon Toast Crunch, Betty Crocker, Nature Valley, and Yoplait. It delivered better-than-expected EPS and margin despite broad sales declines, with strength in International offset by weakness in North America Retail and Pet. 

GIS Q1 Highlights (using Bloomberg Consensus data) 

Earnings: Adjusted EPS $0.86 (vs. $1.07 y/y), topping estimates of $0.82.

Margins: Adjusted gross margin 34.2% (vs. 35.4% y/y), above 33.4% consensus.

Sales: Net sales $4.52B, down 6.8% y/y, in line with estimates.

• North America Retail: $2.63B (-13% y/y, in line).

• Foodservice: $516.7M (-3.6% y/y, slightly above).

• Pet: $610M (+5.9% y/y, below est. $622.6M).

• International: $760.2M (+6% y/y, above est. $736.3M).

Organic Performance

Organic net sales down 3% (vs. -2.9% est).

• North America Retail -5% (vs. -4.8% est).

• Pet -5% (vs. -2.9% est).

• Foodservice +1% (vs. +0.2% est).

• International +4% (vs. +2.4% est)

Organic sales volume -1 pt (in line).

Organic price/mix -2 pts (vs. -1.8% est).

GIS reaffirmed its full-year outlook for adjusted EPS to decline as much as 15% and organic sales between -1% to 1%.

GIS FY26 Outlook

• Reaffirmed organic net sales guidance: -1% to +1% (vs. -1.07% consensus).

• Maintains forecast for adjusted EPS to decline 10–15% in constant currency.

• Expects adjusted operating profit down 10–15% in constant currency.

Food and beverage companies have faced lower volumes and softer demand as cash-strapped shoppers seek value.

One way consumers have tightened budgets is by buying more food for home rather than dining out. This trend began during the inflation surge under the Biden-Harris regime several years ago. Although inflation has eased during Trump's second term, some consumers continue to cook at home.

"General Mills has said a rise in cooking at home among value-conscious consumers struggling with inflation has helped boost some of its staples, including rice and beans," Bloomberg noted, adding, "Still, shoppers who are anxious about the economy have been cautious with their spending and turned to private-label options and smaller package sizes." 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 11:05

WTI Extends Gains AFter Biggest Crude Build In 3 Months

Oil prices leaked lower overnight after a three-day advance as traders assess the fallout from Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and a Federal Reserve interest rate decision later Wednesday.

WTI was trading around  $64.50 a barrel after gaining 3.2% in the previous three sessions. Ukraine attacked the Saratov refinery in its latest strike on Russian energy facilities - which have helped cut the OPEC+ member’s production to its lowest post-pandemic level, according to Goldman Sachs.

A big crude draw reported by API overnight will prompt some buying pressure if confirmed by the official EOA data.

API

• Crude -3.42mm (-1.6mm exp)

• Cushing

• Gasoline -691k

• Distillates +1.9mm

DOE

• Crude -9.285mm - biggest build since June

• Cushing -296k

• Gasoline -2.347mm

• Distillates +4.046mm

US crude stocks plunged over 9 million barrels last week (far greater than expected and the biggest draw since June). Gasoline inventories also saw a drawdown while distillates stocks rose for the 3rd straight week...

Source: Bloomberg

Even accounting for the 504k barrel addition to the SPR, total US commercial crude stocks saw their second biggest weekly decline in 15 months...

Source: Bloomberg

US crude production remains near record highs as the decline the rig count has finally stalled...

Source: Bloomberg

The recent gains haven’t been enough to push oil out of the $5 band it has been in for most of the past month-and-a-half, buffeted between geopolitical tensions and bearish fundamentals.

The accelerated return of OPEC+ supply has boosted predictions that a glut will form later in the year, while surging oil tanker earnings are offering a sign of higher output.

WTI has extended its gains from overnight weakness and is trading just in the green on the day...

Oil markets are focused on Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, as well as the wider risk of escalation following a drone incursion into Poland last week, said Emily Ashford, head of energy research at Standard Chartered Plc.

“We think a 25 basis-point Fed cut is priced in, but a 50 basis-point surprise would be further risk-on for markets,” Ashford said in reference to the imminent Fed decision.

Oil's implied volatility was subdued after it fell to the lowest in more than three weeks on Monday, as outright prices remain firmly stuck within the narrow range seen since early August.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 10:37

Bank Of Canada Resumes Rate Cuts After 6 Month Pause

The Bank of Canada cuts rates by 25bp to 2.50%, as expected. This was the 8th consecutive rate cut since the easing cycle started one year ago, and took place after the bank paused following its last rate cut in March, 6 months ago.

Governor Tiff Macklem said that while "considerable uncertainty remains", there was a "clear consensus" within the committee for the first rate cut since March, as slowing population gains and a weak labor market were a drag on consumption while the economy was weaker and there was "less upside risk to inflation." The BoC head explained that the "Governing Council judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks going forward." Additionally, he noted the upward pressure on CPI has diminished.

The BoC removed the language from the prior statement which said, "if a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward price pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate".

Some more highlights from the report: 

Trade

• Through the recent period of trade upheaval. Governing Council has been proceeding carefully, paying particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• Tariffs are having a profound effect on several key sectors, including the auto, steel and aluminum industries. Chinese tariffs on canola, pork and seafood, new US tariffs on copper, and higher US tariffs on softwood lumber will spread the direct impacts further.
• After remaining resilient to sharply higher US tariffs and ongoing uncertainty, global economic growth is showing signs of slowing.

Economy

• The Bank will continue to assess the risks, look over a shorter horizon than usual, and be ready to respond to new information.
• There were some signs of resilience: consumption was stronger than expected in the second quarter and housing activity increased.
• Canada's GDP declined by about VA% in Q2, as expected, with tariffs and trade uncertainty weighing heavily on economic activity.
• Exports fell by 27% in Q2, a sharp reversal from 01 when Cos. were rushing orders to get ahead of tariffs.
• Business investment also declined in Q2, while consumption and housing activity both grew at a healthy pace.
• In the months ahead, slow population growth and the weakness in the labour market will likely weigh on household spending.

Inflation:

• Preferred measures of core inflation have been around 3% in recent months, but on a monthly basis the upward momentum seen earlier this year has dissipated.

Ahead:

• Looking ahead, the disruptive effects of shifts in trade will continue to add costs even as they weigh on economic activity.
• Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties.
• GC will be assessing how exports evolve in the face of US tariffs and changing trade relationships.

In summary: the BoC cut rates by 25bps as expected, with Governor Macklem noting a "clear consensus" to ease policy. The accompanying statement stated that the reduction was appropriate given the weaker economy and fewer upside risks to inflation. Additionally, the board judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks. On the trade front, policymakers remain cautious over the risks stemming from US tariff actions. Moving forward. The Bank will continue to assess the risks, look over a shorter horizon than usual, and be ready to respond to new information.

In immediate kneejerk response, the USDCAD rose modestly from 1.3760 to a session high of 1.3770 before retracing some of the move with much of the decision in line with expectations. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 10:14

Lyft Shares Rise Above Multi-Year Trading Range On Waymo Nashville Partnership 

News of a new partnership in the robotaxi industry just hit the wires: Lyft and Waymo are joining forces to expand autonomous ride-hailing in Nashville starting in 2026. Lyft shares jumped in New York on the news. Waymo, a private subsidiary of Alphabet, will supply the autonomous vehicles to operate on Lyft's Flexdrive fleet management platform, which will handle maintenance, charging, depot operations, and overall vehicle optimization.

At launch, rides will be available first through the Waymo app, with integration into Lyft's app planned later this year. This new dynamic marketplace will enable Waymo vehicles to serve riders on both platforms, enhancing fleet utilization while supporting Lyft's hybrid model, which combines human-driven vehicles and robotaxis. 

"Riders will have the opportunity to hail Waymo's fully autonomous vehicles first on the Waymo app, with plans to also dispatch its fleet on Lyft's network for matched rides later in 2026," Lyft wrote in a press release. 

Lyft is expected to support the rollout by building out a dedicated AV fleet management facility in the Nashville metro area, ensuring high uptime and lower operating costs. 

Executives from both companies highlighted the partnership was a perfect fit, with Lyft CEO David Risher stating: 

"This partnership brings together best-in-class autonomous vehicles with best-in-class customer experience. Waymo has proven that its autonomous technology works at scale. When combined with Lyft's customer-obsession and world-class fleet management capabilities, it's two great tastes that go great together."

Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana stated: 

"We're delighted to partner with Lyft and launch in Nashville next year, as we continue to scale our Waymo ride-hailing service to more people in more places. Lyft's extensive fleet management capabilities through Flexdrive make them an ideal partner for expanding to Nashville. We can't wait to introduce Music City's residents and visitors to the convenient, consistent, safe, and magical Waymo experience."

Shares in New York were up over 20% at the start of the cash session, but have pulled back a little since...

...but still breaking out of a trading range that dates back to early 2022.

After months of compression, the Waymo news could be the catalyst for further upside.

Robotaxi wars in North America are underway. How will Tesla respond?

Related:

• Goldman Weighs In On Tesla Robotaxi Launch

• Robotaxis Enter Commercialization Phase In North America With Hyperscaling Next

According to Goldman...

Besides robotaxis, autonomous big rigs will be hitting the streets for commercialization momentarily - if they haven’t already.

• First Driverless Heavy Duty Trucking Service Launched On US Public Roads

. . .

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 10:00

UK, US Sign $42 Billion Tech Deal To Boost AI Partnership

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The United Kingdom and the United States struck a technology pact on Sept. 16 that would bring $42 billion in investments from U.S. tech giants into the UK’s AI infrastructure.

The deal was reached as President Donald Trump arrived in the UK for a two-day state visit, during which he is expected to meet King Charles and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Under the “Tech Prosperity Deal,” the two nations agreed to cooperate in advancing AI, quantum computing, and nuclear technology, according to a statement issued by the UK government.

Major U.S. tech companies—Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, OpenAI, and CoreWeave—will invest in the UK’s AI infrastructure, including data centers and computer chips, as part of the agreement.

The deal is expected to generate more than 5,000 jobs in the northeast of England, which the UK government said will become a new AI growth zone.

The two countries will collaborate on research schemes to further the use of AI to allow for “targeted treatments and other shared priorities like fusion energy,” according to the statement.

This could lead to “life-changing breakthroughs like developing targeted treatments for those suffering with cancer or rare and chronic diseases,” the UK government said.

“This Tech Prosperity Deal marks a generational step change in our relationship with the U.S., shaping the futures of millions of people on both sides of the Atlantic, and delivering growth, security and opportunity up and down the country,” Starmer said.

The deal includes a $30 billion investment from Microsoft over four years, its largest commitment in the UK.

The company stated in a blog post that the funding will help develop the country’s “largest supercomputer,” which will be equipped with more than 23,000 advanced AI chips.

Under the U.S.–UK tech pact, Nvidia will partner with UK companies to deploy 120,000 advanced GPU chips across the country, marking its largest rollout in Europe to date, according to the statement.

“Today marks a historic chapter in U.S. – United Kingdom technology collaboration,” Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang said.

OpenAI said it will team up with British company Nscale and Nvidia to launch a Stargate UK project to boost the UK’s sovereign computing capabilities, as part of the tech pact.

The UK and the United States signed a trade agreement in June on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada. The deal still left UK steel and aluminum subject to 25 percent tariffs, rates that the UK government is working to reduce.

Speaking to reporters before departing for the UK on Sept. 16, Trump indicated that he was willing to further negotiate trade with the UK government.

“They want to see if they can refine the trade deal a little bit. We made a deal, and it’s a great deal. And I’m into helping them,” the president told reporters.

It was Trump’s second state visit to the UK; his first was in 2019, during his first presidential term, when he was hosted by King Charles’s late mother, Queen Elizabeth II.

A fact sheet issued in May by the Office of U.S. Trade Representative noted that the UK had not fully addressed its Digital Services Tax (DST), which Washington has criticized as discriminatory toward U.S. tech companies. It is unclear whether Trump will touch on the issue during his visit.

The two governments signed a nuclear energy deal just a day before Trump arrived in Britain, which the UK said would “turbocharge the build-out of new nuclear power stations” in both countries.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 09:45

The Fuse Of History Is Lit

Authored by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker,

Earlier this month a British academic named Michael Rainsborough wrote an insightful essay on the United Kingdom’s descent towards civil war.  Once the head of the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, Rainsborough was dismissed from his post for committing a series of “thought crimes.”  His final offense came in the form of a co-authored essay entitled, “The British Road to Dirty War,” in which he and former colleague David Betz diagramed “the hollowing out of British democratic institutions” and the dangerous rule of a permanent governing class filled with authoritarian elites.

Now working in Australia, Rainsborough returns to the subject with additional wisdom that only time and distance can provide.  His verdict is as incisive as it is sobering: Britain’s institutions are irreparably damaged.  The country is headed for long-term Balkanization.  

A “dirty war” similar to those that gripped Latin America fifty years ago may usher in an era of assassinations, hostage-taking, disappearances, industrial sabotage, censorship, and general repression.  Although he acknowledges that the question of how bad things will become in Britain is still very much an open one, he doesn’t envision any set of circumstances that can entirely avert the misery to come.

Rainsborough describes a series of intentional acts engineered by governing elites to diminish democratic accountability and maintain permanent control.  

Rather than recognizing the democratic will of the people following the Brexit referendum in 2016, the ruling class responded with a “deranged mixture of denial and contempt for the electorate.”  

Even before the Brexit vote, however, leftist-globalists were engaging in a great “demographic transformation” intended “to rub the Right’s nose in diversity.”  

Today the whole British government “operates from a post-nationalist outlook, one that treats the very idea of nationhood as negotiable, even alien, to the political class.”

Making matters worse, the British Establishment has gone all-in on globalism by “outsourcing” its “sovereignty to supranational bodies” that “dilute and often override domestic consent.”  Consequently, institutional elites are driving Britain towards “self-destruction” by “clinging to an incontinent immigration system and an almost devotional attachment to international and human rights laws that disadvantage its own citizens.”

Rainsborough accuses British authorities of repurposing old tools for imperial governance into “divide and rule” instruments for manipulating domestic society.  “The aim” is “to rule by division: to fracture society into communities, reward loyal in-groups and discriminate against the majority through a two-tier system of justice, policing and social policy.”  He calls the agents of this purposeful division the “new imperialists.”

The “new imperialists” have self-important titles — “diversity coordinators, anti-racism activists, curriculum decolonisers, climate campaigners” — but their mission is identical to the agents that once helped Britain’s East India Company conquer much of the globe: to “manage society by division.”  After categorizing everyone by race, caste, and creed, today’s “woke” imperialists “elevate” favored minorities and “relegate” the majority to “second-class status.”  Just as their predecessors felt morally superior to the natives when conquering India, today’s leftist-globalists are “buoyed by moral certainty and a conviction of their right to rule.”

The natural result of this manufactured division is today’s national flag protests across the United Kingdom.  While government authorities enthusiastically support the waving of Ukrainian, Islamic, and “gay pride” flags, they are extremely angry with British citizens who proudly fly England’s Cross of St. George.  “The majority population, already disregarded on questions such as immigration, is told that its own symbols of belonging must be hidden, while the emblems of others are to be privileged and extolled.”  In effect, Britain’s elite ruling class has denied the British “people’s right to recognise themselves.

What is particularly remarkable about Rainsborough’s analysis is its applicability to other nations throughout the West.  An American, Canadian, Australian, German, or Dutch citizen reading his point-by-point rationale for why the United Kingdom is heading for civil war would logically conclude that civil war is also coming closer to home.  Is there any public policy that the British Establishment has implemented to “divide and rule” over citizens that the Establishments of other Western nations haven’t also implemented?  Support for mass illegal immigration, the demonization of patriotism as “fascism,” the criminalization of so-called “hate speech,” widespread censorship, and the systematic persecution of individuals and groups expressing dissent to the government’s official “narratives” — these hallmarks of encroaching totalitarianism flourish across the West.

Parts of France are in flames right now.  After Emmanuel Macron’s government collapsed last week, riots erupted nationwide.  Fed up with the direction of their country under Macron’s rule, French citizens across the political spectrum have temporarily coalesced into a “Block Everything” movement that has shut down major highways and turned the night sky into a medieval mixture of glowing embers and smoke.  It has been reported that the ineffective French president is so desperate to quell the growing revolt that he is considering shutting down social media platforms.

Macron might resist the despotic urge to suspend public communication after witnessing events unfold in Nepal.  The South Asian republic is also in flames right now after more than a week of total chaos.  After large public protests over government corruption could not be controlled, the Nepalese Establishment made the fateful decision to block all social media platforms.  Angry citizens promptly responded by burning down parliament, dragging politicians out of their homes, and beating officials to death.  The government attempted to reverse course and permit social media access, but protesters continue to target anyone who might be considered an “elite.”

French President Macron is acutely aware that the carnage in Nepal could soon find its way to France if he chooses to shut down social media sites.  Leftist-globalists already crossed a similar line in Canada when the government of former prime minister Justin Trudeau seized the bank accounts of “Freedom Convoy” protesters fighting back against COVID edicts and “vaccine” mandates.  Trudeau’s actions demonstrated how willing Western governments are to punish dissent by seizing private property.  Should Macron follow Canada and Nepal’s reckless examples by confiscating bank accounts and stifling public communication, French citizens will no doubt respond with even more intensity.

Perhaps that is why one of the U.K.’s top law enforcement officers, Sir Andy Cooke, is desperately trying to end the criminalization of “offensive” social media speech.  Arguing that British authorities need to “allow people to speak openly without the fear their opinion will put them on the wrong side of the law,” Cooke wants cops to stop acting as free speech “monitors.”  After years of throwing British citizens in jail for expressing opinions, this kind of public policy U-turn suggests that government authorities now regret energizing a free speech movement sweeping across the U.K.

In reaction to the assassination of Charlie Kirk in the United States, Prime Minister Keir Starmer wrote, “We must all be free to debate openly and freely without fear — there can be no justification for political violence.”  

After years of imprisoning people for their speech and regularly censoring social media accounts, Starmer’s hypocrisy set off a chain reaction of national anger in the U.K.  

On Saturday, over a million citizens took to the streets of London in support of free speech.  One Brit declared, “They just made a million Charlie Kirks.”

Could France, Britain, or the United States suffer Nepal’s fate?  Maybe.  The “new imperialists” are dangerously arrogant.  

As Rainsborough writes, “They imagine themselves clever enough — and the public credulous enough — that such policies can be pursued without provoking resistance.  But arrogance is no substitute for foresight.  Once matters tip into open conflict, escalation takes on its own momentum.  Anger is already stirring — and anger, once roused, is the fuse of history.”

If you look around the West, it is impossible to deny that the “fuse of history” is already lit.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 09:10

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.307 million Annual Rate in August

A brief excerpt:

Total housing starts in August were well below expectations, however, starts in June and July were revised up.

The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2024 (blue) and 2025 (red).

Total starts were down 6.0% in August compared to August 2024.

Year-to-date (YTD) starts are up 0.7% compared to the same period in 2024. Single family starts are down 4.9% YTD and multi-family up 17.5% YTD.

There is much more in the article.

US Housing Starts & Building Permits Plunged In August, But...

With homebuilder sentiment hovering near COVID lockdown lows (at 13-year lows), it is perhaps not surprising that this morning's Housing Starts and Building Permits data is such a shitshow.

• US Housing Starts tumbled 8.5% MoM (worse than the 4.4% MoM decline expected)

• US Building Permits plunged 3.7% MoM (worse than the 0.6% MoM rise expected)

That is the 5th straight month of MoM declines for the more forward-looking permits print.

The MoM declines dragged the SAARs down to post-COVID-lockdown lows...

Across the US, housing starts in the South, the nation’s biggest homebuilding region, fell 21% to the lowest in nearly a year.

Starts also fell in the Midwest, but they rose in the West and Northeast.

Starts & Permits plunged across the board (for both single-family and multi-family units)

Housing starts:

• Single-family 890K SAAR, down 7.0% from 957K in July and the lowest since July 2024

• Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 11% from 453K in July and the lowest since May

Housing permits:

• Single-family 856K SAAR, down 2.2% from 875K in July and the lowest since March 2023

• Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 6.7% from 432K in July and the lowest since May 2024

However, on the bright side, mortgage rates have been tumbling (near three year lows)...

...and mortgage applications soared almost 30% week-over-week.

Will the rate-cuts expected today (and for the rest of the year) provide the affordability lift that so many hope for?

Bear in mind there is still a vast gap between the current mortgage rates and the effective average rates of homeowners across the nation...

Last month, the number of single-family homes under construction extended its multi-year decline, falling to an annual pace of 611,000, the lowest since early 2021.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 08:51

Interpreting Zelensky's Shifting Goalposts For Victory

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

He finally accepts the impossibility of restoring Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders...

Zelensky recently told ABC News that “Victory, to my mind, Putin's goal is to occupy Ukraine, this is to destroy us, occupy, and did he occupy it?...He didn't occupy us, we win, and I think so, because we have our country.”

This is a far cry from the mantra that he’s chanted almost daily for the past 3,5 years since the special operation began about restoring his country’s pre-2014 borders.

Quite clearly, he’s hinting that he’ll accept an end to the conflict that doesn’t achieve that aim, thus going with the political flow.

About that, while Trump might escalate US involvement for the purpose of coercing Putin into freezing the conflict without obtaining any of his stated goals therein, he doesn’t have any illusions about Ukraine restoring its pre-2014 borders.

The same goes for if he tries to make a direct NATO intervention there, whether before or after hostilities cease and regardless of whether it precedes a no-fly zone, a fait accompli. Zelensky is aware of this and doesn’t want to risk Trump’s wrath by demanding the impossible.

Accordingly, he’s now begun the task of correcting domestic and Western perceptions of victory, ergo why he’s now shifting the goalposts by claiming that this has been achieved just by ending the conflict without Russia occupying all of Ukraine. The problem is that Russia never intended to occupy all of Ukraine. This is proven by it never even trying to take Odessa, not to mention making no moves whatsoever on Western Ukraine, with Kiev’s environs being the furthest west that Russia ever went.

To be sure, some of its supporters have fantasized that Russia’s goal is to occupy all of Ukraine up to the Polish border, but this has always been wishful thinking and never a reflection of Russia’s stated goals or even its implied ones as proven by the course of military operations. By spinning this baseless speculation as strategic fact, which inadvertently highlights the curious narrative convergence between some of Russia’s and Ukraine’s supporters, Zelensky hopes to settle for less without “losing face”.

He's motivated not only by concerns about his legacy, but also by fear of an ultra-nationalist (fascist) revolt from segments of civil society and the armed forces in the event that he accepts indefinite Russian control over Ukrainian-claimed territories as part of a peace deal. The irony is that Ukraine would have retained the parts of Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions presently under Russian control had Zelensky accepted the terms of spring 2022’s draft peace treaty that the UK and Poland conspired to sabotage.

The precedent established by the epic failure of summer 2023’s counteroffensive, which was prepared for over a year and followed the influx of tens of billions of dollars of military equipment into Ukraine that the West no longer has to spare, suggests that Zelensky won’t claw anything back no matter what . The conflict will thus end with Russia at the very least keeping the lands that it won in those two regions, if not expanding its gains (whether there and/or elsewhere) depending on how everything soon evolves.

Circling back to Zelensky shifting the goalposts for victory, the significance is therefore that he’s truly willing to freeze the conflict along the frontlines at minimum, with the possibility existing that he might even agree to withdraw from the rest of Donbass if Trump orders him to as part of a deal with Putin. That can’t be taken for granted, however, since he thus far hasn’t pressured him on anything so far. In any case, the military-political dynamics continue to favor Russia, and Zelensky has finally accepted this.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 08:40

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,307,000. This is 8.5 percent below the revised July estimate of 1,429,000 and is 6.0 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,391,000. Single-family housing starts in August were at a rate of 890,000; this is 7.0 percent below the revised July figure of 957,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 403,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 403,000 in August.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased month-over-month in August.   Multi-family starts were up 8.9% year-over-year.

Single-family starts (red) decreased in August and were down 11.7% year-over-year.

The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

Total housing starts in August were well below expectations, however, starts in June and July were revised up.

I'll have more later …

China Tech Hits Four-Year High, Fueled By "Re-accelerating AI Spend & Product Rollouts" 

In recent weeks, our market technicians at The Market Ear desk posed an important question: Are Chinese technology stocks about to blast off after years in the gutter? 

Let's take a step back to mid-August. We had already flagged for Pro Subs that China's Shanghai Composite was "on the verge of a historic breakout."

Fast forward to Wednesday, the Hang Seng Tech Index jumped 4%, the highest close since Nov 2021, led by Baidu (+16%), with Alibaba, SMIC, and JD.com also rallying.

The Hang Seng Tech Index is up 41% year-to-date, on track for its seventh straight week of gains, far outpacing regional peers. Valuations (21x forward earnings) remain cheaper than the Nasdaq 100 (27x).

Hang Seng Tech v. S&P500 ... 

Some of the key drivers fueling the China tech rally include easing Sino-US tensions, highlighted by a planned Trump-Xi call later this week and a framework for the TikTok deal. Meanwhile, AI rollouts in the world's second-largest economy have accelerated, spanning robotaxis, drones, and domestically produced chips. The DeepSeek innovation shock is also shifting sentiment more positively toward the country.

Here are details (courtesy of Bloomberg) on China tech's massive AI spending spree - and let's not forget, the chips powering that compute are increasingly shifting toward domestic ones (read here)…

China's biggest tech companies are in the middle of a spending spree on AI, as they race against one another and against US firms to conquer a market widely expected to revolutionize how people live and work.

Total capital expenditure from major Chinese internet firms such as Alibaba, Tencent Holdings Ltd., Baidu and JD.com is set to hit $32 billion in 2025, more than doubling from $13 billion in 2023, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence report. That has helped create a funding spree in equity and bond markets. Alibaba raised $3.2 billion from a blockbuster convertible bond offering last week, while Tencent turned to the dim sum bond market for 9 billion yuan ($1.27 billion) on Tuesday, its first bond sale in four years.

The latest news fueling optimism was a state television report Tuesday night that China Unicom's Sanjiangyuan data center has signed contracts to deploy AI chips from local firms including Alibaba's chip unit T-Head.

"China tech leaders are visibly re-accelerating AI spend and product rollouts — models, robotaxis, in-house chips — while also proving they can monetize AI faster than many expected," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets, who Bloomberg quoted. "With valuations lagging the U.S., investors are starting to pay attention again."

To Chanana’s point, if investors are only just waking up to the explosive rally in China tech, ZeroHedge Pro subs were already strapped in well before liftoff.

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Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 08:00

Tyler Robinson Charged In Kirk Assassination, Urged Trans Boyfriend to "Stay Silent"

Utah prosecutors filed seven charges on Tuesday against 22-year-old Tyler Robinson in the political assassination of conservative thought leader Charlie Kirk nearly one week ago. They're seeking the death penalty. 

The charges include aggravated murder, discharge of a firearm, obstruction of justice, and witness tampering. Prosecutors said Robinson's DNA was found on the rifle's trigger.

Here are the seven charges:

• Count 1: Aggravated murder (capital offense)

• Count 2: Felony reckless discharge of a firearm causing bodily injury

• Count 3: Felony obstruction of justice for hiding the firearm

• Count 4: Felony obstruction of justice for discarding the clothing he wore during the shooting

• Count 5: Witness tampering for asking roommate to DELETE incriminating messages

• Count 6: Witness tampering for demanding the trans roommate stay silent, and NOT speak to the police

• Count 7: Commission of a violent offense in the presence of a child

Utah County Attorney Jeff Gray told reporters earlier that he intends to seek the death penalty against Robinson. This means Robinson will be held without bail. 

"I do not take this decision lightly, and it is a decision I have made independently as county attorney based solely on the available evidence and circumstances and nature of the crime," Gray said.

"Robinson's mother expressed concern to her husband that the suspect shooter looked like Robinson," and Robinson's father agreed, Gray said.

DISGUSTING: ABC’s Matt Gutman says he’s not sure “if we have seen an alleged murder with such specific text messages” that were “very touching, in a way, that I think many of us didn’t expect — a very intimate portrait into this relationship between the suspect’s roommate and the… pic.twitter.com/ulPcxoOwM3

— Curtis Houck (@CurtisHouck) September 16, 2025

According to Gray, Robinson's mother told federal agents that "over the last year or so, her son had become more political and had started leaning more to the left, becoming more pro-gay and trans-rights oriented."

Robinson's mother also told police that he "began to date his roommate, a biological male who was transitioning genders," the prosecutor said.

Lance Twiggs the tranny boyfriend of terrorist Tyler Robinson. pic.twitter.com/s3Lrc5QFsc

— Ryan Dawson (@RyLiberty) September 13, 2025

Benny Johnson released the Utah County DA's full text message exchange between Robinson and his transgender boyfriend/roommate after committing the assassination: 

Earlier, federal agents expanded their investigation to include whether pro-trans online groups, "furries" with sexualized animal obsessions, and others tied to Robinson had advance knowledge of the political assassination plot. These groups include communities on the online gaming platform Steam, as well as Armed Queers Salt Lake City.

'Armed Queers' Marxist Revolutionaries Under Investigation For Possible Foreknowledge Of Kirk's Assassination Plot https://t.co/LtPeDRioPF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 16, 2025

. . . 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 07:45

Beijing Bans Alibaba, ByteDance From Buying Nvidia's Custom AI Chip

China's Cyberspace Administration (CAC) has barred Alibaba, ByteDance, and other tech firms from purchasing Nvidia's AI chips, including the RTX Pro 6000D custom-built for the Chinese market. The timing underscores the ongoing Sino-US trade spat and tech showdown, as President Trump pushes to force a sale of China-associated TikTok to a U.S. company. Later this week, Trump is expected to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping, with trade and the fate of TikTok likely on the agenda. 

The Financial Times reports that the CAC is going beyond earlier restrictions on Nvidia's H20 chip. The curbs now extend to the RTX Pro 6000D, forcing major Chinese tech firms to abandon their planned large orders.

People familiar with the situation said some tech firms had tens of thousands of the RTX6000D, designed mainly for AI inference tasks, in the order pipeline. Regulators have concluded that domestic chips achieved the same performance as that of Nvidia's model. 

On Monday, China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) ruled that Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws. While SAMR provided few details, the ruling stems from an antitrust probe that began with a preliminary investigation in 2020.

By Tuesday, the SCMP reported that the RTX6000D has so far received muted demand in China. JPMorgan told clients last month that it expected some 1.5 million RTX6000Ds to be produced in the second half of this year, while Morgan Stanley predicted in July that Nvidia would have 2 million RTX6000Ds in its pipeline. 

The RTX 6000D is based on Nvidia's latest Blackwell architecture with conventional graphics double data rate memory and a memory bandwidth of 1,398 gigabytes per second, just below the 1.4 terabyte threshold set by the U.S. in April. It was developed in part to fill a void left by the H20, which was banned from sale in April before that decision was reversed.

What's clear is that Beijing is putting pressure on Nvidia ahead of the Trump-Xi talks later this week - think of it as a form of leverage. 

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang expressed disappointment but acknowledged the geopolitical storm, noting that Nvidia can only serve markets where it's welcome.

"We can only be in service of a market if the country wants us to be," Huang told reporters in London. "I'm disappointed with what I see. But they have larger agendas to work out, between China and the U.S., and I'm understanding of that. We are patient about it."

Shares of Nvidia are down 1.5% in premarket trading in New York. On the year, shares are up 30%. The chart below shows that upside price action has stalled since mid-August. The $180 level is the current resistance.

. . . 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 07:20