EU Should Tariff China To Kick Its Rare Earths Dependency

Authored by Anders Corr via The Epoch Times,

The European Union is planning a rare-earth element stockpile, mining, and refinement strategy to be more fully revealed in mid-November.

The plan is to use import substitution to counter China’s rare-earth export controls on seven rare earths imposed in April.

However, it could take 10 to 15 years for Europe to become fully independent of China’s rare-earth supply, by which time Russia’s war may have eaten further into Europe’s eastern boundaries. Until the European Union credibly threatens tough tariffs against China—on the order of 100 percent mooted in October by U.S. President Donald Trump—Beijing is unlikely to relent. EU tariffs would provide plenty of leverage, as the European Union has had a persistent trade deficit with China of approximately 300 billion euros to 400 billion euros annually since 2022.

China’s control of rare-earth elements amounts to a global licensing system that could give Beijing a chokehold on the European Union’s artificial intelligence (AI), defense, automotive, and other high-tech sectors. Unfortunately, it’s mostly too late for the EU to stockpile rare-earth elements, as China is already restricting rare-earth exports. Some of the European Union’s past imports of rare-earth elements were 98 percent sourced from China. It could take a dozen years to fully diversify rare-earth mining and refinement away from China, according to SFA Oxford analysts.

Meanwhile, Europe’s defense and auto industries are at the mercy of Beijing, which is normalizing the notion that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has global control over such a critical input to Europe’s defense and industry—and, by extension, the sovereignty and commercial power of Europe’s many free nations.

The CCP’s rare-earth controls have, for example, tripled the cost of some rare-earth elements on global markets and rendered European sanctions on China toothless. These include sanctions for Beijing’s support of Russia’s war machine, whose strikes are already straying from Ukraine over the boundary into Poland, Estonia, and Romania. European sanctions on China’s totalitarian form of government, territorial aggression, support for dictators and terrorists around the world, and human rights abuse are also weakened to nonexistent due to Beijing’s rare-earth move.

Fighter jets, missile guidance, and drones require rare-earth elements to operate. The effect of the CCP’s controls on these European production lines is likely classified. But in June, the European Association of Automotive Suppliers, or CLEPA, warned of risks to the auto supply chain due to Beijing’s export controls on computer chips.

“Chips are essential for vehicle electronics and up to 700 other critical components,” CLEPA said in a press release at the time. “The shortage has an ongoing effect on key electronic systems such as radar sensors, which alone consume around one million chips per week.”

In September, CLEPA noted that European auto factories had stalled due to a shortage of rare-earth elements. BMW and other major automakers faced disruptions to their supply chains. While BMW is scrambling to produce rare-earth-free motors, this only works on larger electric engines. Rare-earth elements remain necessary for small electric motors that power everything from windows to wipers.

European sanctions will remain toothless until Brussels shakes its dependence on China’s rare earths, not to mention other strategic imports. The CCP found Europe’s Achilles’ heel, which will make it vulnerable to the demands of Beijing on opening European markets to China and providing key European exports to Chinese companies.

Beijing seeks semiconductor fabrication machines from the Netherlands, for example, which will surely be part of the ongoing negotiations. Beijing will be pressing Brussels for not only AI-capable chips, but the machines that make the chips.

The European Union is also impeded in its response to the Chinese regime’s growing international aggression in places like Taiwan, Japan’s Senkaku Islands, the Philippines, and India’s Himalayas. The lack of power that the EU has in negotiations with Beijing due to the rare-earth controls will buy China time to build its military and global diplomatic support for an attack on Taiwan, which could give Beijing control over the key Taiwanese semiconductor factories—also known as fabs—necessary to make the CCP even more fearless of the West’s economic sanctions. This was something that the former Soviet Union never achieved, making the CCP a greater threat than the Soviets ever were.

In 2022, the European Union announced an import substitution regime for rare-earth elements called the Critical Raw Materials Act. It seeks to replace much of the rare earths from China through domestic production by 2030, including domestic fulfillment of at least 10 percent of the EU’s extraction needs, 40 percent of its processing, and 25 percent of its recycling. Domestic EU mining and refining could be scaled up in case of an emergency. The European Union would limit dependence on any single foreign supplier to 65 percent of EU needs, which is likely still too much. Another initiative, ReSourceEU, will diversify rare-earth supply chains to Estonia, Australia, Canada, and Kazakhstan.

This is all too little, too late, and insufficient, given that the free world does not have 10 to 15 years to wait for the European Union to become independent of Beijing’s threat to throttle Europe’s rare earth supplies. Tougher measures must be considered.

Tariffing EU trade with China at 100 percent is the kind of penalty that could force Beijing to back down on its rare-earth export controls immediately. That would give Europe the time it needs to develop its own rare-earth supply, and never again to hock its sovereignty at a pawn shop in Beijing.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/13/2025 - 03:30

'Sarajevo Safari': Italy Probes Claim That Wealthy Tourists Paid To Go To Bosnia To Snipe Civilians

Various reports including in The Guardian and European outlets have detailed one of the most shocking 'war tourism' stories in a long time. The reports claim people in the 1990s paid large sums of money to travel to the Balkans, where they didn't just observe the long-running Yugoslav wars, but picked up rifles and shot people for 'sport'.

Italian prosecutors are investigating the shocking allegations that wealthy foreigners paid many tens of thousands of dollars to act as "weekend snipers" and shoot civilians during the siege of Sarajevo in the early to mid-1990s.

Via Borgen Magazine

Travelers from Italy, the United States, Russia, and other countries allegedly went to Bosnia during the war to fire on residents of the besieged city "for entertainment".

They are said to have paid money to soldiers belonging to the army of Bosnian Serb warlord Radovan Karadžić, who was decades later convicted of crimes against humanity at the Hague.

Serbian authorities have vehemently denied the sensationalist allegations related specifically to the years-running siege of Sarajevo from 1992 to 1996 which took over 11,000 lives.

Prosecutors in Milan are now working to identify the Italian citizens allegedly involved. Statements indicated they will include potential charges of "premeditated murder aggravated by cruelty and vile motives."

There's reason for skepticism, however, given some of the specifics seem hard to believe and over-the-top, and given Balkan conflicts have notoriously been clouded in wartime propaganda and enduring historical falsehoods:

The Milan complaint was filed by journalist and novelist Ezio Gavazzeni, who describes a "manhunt" by "very wealthy people" with a passion for weapons who "paid to be able to kill defenseless civilians" from Serb positions in the hills around Sarajevo.

Different rates were charged to kill men, women or children, according to some reports.

While there have long been rumors of such things taking place, the current investigation into this in northern Italy is due largely to a prominent journalist who has has sought to revive a formal probe by submitting his own 17-page report to prosecutors:

Ezio Gavazzeni, who usually writes about terrorism and the mafia, first read about the sniper tours to Sarajevo three decades ago when Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera reported the story, but without firm evidence.

He returned to the topic after seeing "Sarajevo Safari", a documentary film from 2022 by Slovenian director Miran Zupanic which alleges that those involved in the killings came from several countries, including the US and Russia as well as Italy.

Radovan Karadžić

The reality is that for the bulk of the historic siege few people could move in or out of the city's environs or outskirts, and various layers of snaking checkpoints and barriers were erected and staffed also by foreign troops at times.

For example, the BBC concludes with a lengthy case for skepticism:

However, members of the British forces who served in Sarajevo in the 1990s have told the BBC that they never heard of any so-called "sniper tourism" during the Bosnian conflict.

They indicated that any attempts to bring in people from third countries who had paid to shoot at civilians in Sarajevo would have been "logistically difficult to accomplish", due to the proliferation of checkpoints.

British forces served both inside Sarajevo and in the areas surrounding the city, where Serb forces were stationed and they saw nothing at the time to suggest that "sniper tourism" was taking place.

One soldier described the allegations that foreigners had paid to shoot at civilians as an "urban myth".

The war was tragic and brutal enough to need no exaggeration, and this could in the end be an attempt of some prosecutors, journalists, and documentary film-makers to make a name for themselves by re-presenting rumors which makes for loud and curiosity-evoking headlines.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/13/2025 - 02:45

Germany Offers Afghans Taxpayers' Cash To Abandon Resettlement Pledges

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The German government has sent letters offering Afghan nationals taxpayer-funded cash incentives to withdraw from resettlement programs and either return to Afghanistan or move to a third country, as reported by the German Press Agency (dpa).

The letters, distributed via the German Society for International Cooperation (GIZ), offer several thousand euros in compensation and logistical support, such as transport, medical assistance, and three months of psychosocial care to Afghan nationals awaiting resettlement flights in their home country and neighboring Pakistan.

The federal interior ministry, cited by Welt, said the voluntary offer is meant to “give those who cannot expect to be accepted in Germany a future.”

Recipients were told that all local admission procedures must be completed by the end of 2025 and warned that “there is no guarantee all steps can be completed on time.” The deadline to accept the offer is Nov. 17, after which re-entry into the relocation process will not be possible.

Over 2,000 Afghan nationals are currently awaiting transfer to Germany under various protection and resettlement schemes. The current CDU/CSU-SPD coalition government suspended the previous administration’s admission programs for Afghans in May, but flights have continued to arrive since the Berlin Administrative Court ruled that the government must honor its previous commitments to admit an Afghan woman and her 13 family members in a landmark case.

The court found that previously issued admission approvals were legally binding and could not be revoked, ordering the Foreign Ministry to act immediately. While the government had the opportunity to appeal the decision, it withdrew its application in August, finalizing the ruling.

The interior ministry defended the financial incentive proposal, saying it targets those whose resettlement approvals were never finalized.

The various Afghan resettlement schemes were launched in 2021 after the Taliban retook control of the country. Applicants were required to travel to Pakistan for visa processing and security screening before entering Germany.

The government argues that the suspension of admissions is necessary due to “security and procedural concerns” fuelled by newspaper reports earlier this year that only one in eight Afghans admitted under special protection programs had undergone full security vetting before arrival. The report claimed that more than 31,000 Afghans and family members entered Germany without complete background checks.

The federal police union (DPolG) urged a total suspension of flights, citing identity-verification failures and terrorism concerns. “The current procedure, in which travel documents are issued despite identities not being fully verified, is highly risky and irresponsible,” said DPolG chief Heiko Teggatz in March.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/13/2025 - 02:00

Experts Doubt China's Claims On AI, Quantum Radar

Authored by Mike Fredenburg via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Commentary

There is little doubt that China’s recent announcements on quantum radar and artificial intelligence (AI)-powered submarine detection, which collectively rip away the operational advantages of submarines and stealth aircraft, are aimed at discouraging any thought by any country to be actively involved in defending Taiwan. The announcements are also meant to demoralize Taiwan.

A U.S. Air Force fifth generation F-35A Lightning II stealth aircraft comes in to land in Lakenheath, England, on April 17, 2025. Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

However, while there is little doubt about the intent of the announcements, there is some room for doubt about their accuracy.

The first announcement involves a four-channel single-photon detector entering mass production in Anhui Province. This component is heralded as the cornerstone of quantum radar systems that will render U.S. stealth aircraft visible.

The second announcement describes a five-layer AI-enhanced ocean grid that was allegedly demonstrated during Joint Sea-2025 exercises with China and Russia. China claims this AI-enabled grid will turn the Western Pacific into a “transparent” sea where no submarine can hide.

On the face of it, these twin initiatives appear to be breakthroughs, but because of Beijing’s history of making exaggerated claims, a bit of healthy skepticism is warranted. Sure, they could be ready tomorrow or in just a few months. Still, with Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping ordering China to be prepared to invade Taiwan in 2027, we should also examine the possibility that the announcements are more about creating fear, uncertainty, and doubt in the minds of those who might be inclined to help Taiwan than they are about actual, deployable military technology. With this in mind, we’ll briefly examine the claims to assess what level of credibility they warrant.

On Oct. 14, Science and Technology Daily, the official newspaper of China’s Ministry of Science and Technology, declared that China had achieved self-sufficiency and international leadership in quantum information components with the mass production of the “single photon catcher.” This matchbox-sized device detects single photons with 90 percent efficiency at negative 184 degrees Fahrenheit, reducing noise by 90 percent and shrinking the device’s size to one-ninth of what other countries have achieved.

If it can indeed operate only at that temperature and still achieve good results, it is a significant achievement, as the United States has developed high-performing single-photon detectors, of which we are aware, that operate at negative 458 degrees Fahrenheit to negative 452 degrees Fahrenheit.

But given that there is no detailed, peer-reviewed scientific paper documenting this, we don’t really know just how good China’s single-photo sensor is. China is also making claims that its quantum radar has a range of 62 miles. If true, this is significantly better than U.S. quantum radar, which is limited to 6.2 miles.

However, a truly effective and militarily useful quantum radar should have a range of hundreds of miles, making a 62-mile range of limited practical value, given that more conventional anti-stealth radar, etc., already can detect stealth craft at 62 miles. And there is no independent verification of these major advances in physics, material science, and engineering. However, as previously noted, there is room for some healthy skepticism.

Though China does publish loads of valid research, including research on quantum technology, it also leads the world by a large margin in retractions of scientific papers, with more than 32,000 academic papers retracted, with seven out of the ten top institutions with the most retractions being Chinese.

As documented in Retraction Watch’s database, reasons for retractions include validity of data or results (more than 24,000 retractions), false/forged authorship (180) of data, dubious images (4,300), fake peer review (6,200), ethics, etc. And there have been 150, 680, 23, and 10 papers retracted involving quantum technology, AI, radar, and sensor fusion, respectively.

A case study of a retracted paper on Chinese research integrity dives into the potential reasons why China is publishing so much flawed and fraudulent research. Given all of this, it is at least possible that research papers published to support Chinese claims could be flawed.

In the United States, MIT, Raytheon, and many other research entities are working on developing quantum radars. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, is working on developing Robust Quantum Sensors. Getting ranges beyond 6.2 miles has not been possible to date, given decoherence as a key issue. No one is making any predictions about when militarily deployable quantum radar with ranges of hundreds of miles will become possible. And there are no claims to support China’s implied claim that a military-grade quantum radar can be deployed in a matter of a few years.

However, when it comes to quantum sensing—a key requirement for quantum radar—the consulting firm McKinsey and Company has suggested we could see limited commercial adoption for short-range applications by the early to mid-2030s. But these applications avoid the biggest problem with quantum radar, maintaining coherence over long range. Hence, most Western experts are highly skeptical of China’s claims.

However, China’s claims of using AI and the sensor fusion of sonar, magnetic anomaly detection, salinity sensors, etc., as reported in the South China Morning Post, to detect submarines is a horse of a different color. It is much more plausible than its quantum radar claims. Indeed, using AI in such a fashion is so obvious that, given the hundreds of billions of U.S. taxpayers’ spend on the military each year, it would be downright scandalous if the United States did not have something similar in the works.

Still, while there are no extremely difficult scientific/engineering hurdles standing in the way as there is with quantum radar, we should not just take China’s word that it now has an AI-powered submarine detection network that is fast enough and well-trained enough to allow it to detect real U.S. submarines 95 percent of the time.

Nevertheless, if China has been able to detect its own subs and Russian subs as they might have done during recent joint exercises, then with the right training data, it should provide a boost in detecting U.S. subs. But given just how dynamic and complex the underwater environment is, experts such as those cited in this Deutsche Welle piece are dubious of the 95 percent claim. So while the precise claim of 95 percent is questionable, the concept behind the technology is valid. Consequently, China’s claim in this case cannot summarily be dismissed.

There is no doubt that the timing of these two announcements is to sow fear, uncertainty, and doubt into the mind of China’s competitors and to demoralize Taiwan, but that does not mean the claims are false. However, our brief examination of the two separate claims reveals that while an AI-powered submarine detection network is very possible and cannot summarily be dismissed as mere information warfare/propaganda, China’s claim of being able to deploy a game-changing quantum radar in the next few years is highly improbable and is likely more propaganda than an immediate threat.

Bottom line, paraphrasing President Ronald Reagan, when it comes to communist China: don’t trust, and always verify.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 22:35

Trump Pens Letter Urging Full Israeli Pardon Of Netanyahu In Corruption Cases

Just as he previously strongly hinted he would do, President Donald Trump has penned an official letter asking the Israeli president to grant a full pardon to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his ongoing major corruption trial.

Trump wrote, "I hereby call on you to fully pardon Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been a formidable and decisive War Time Prime Minister, and is now leading Israel into a time of peace." 

"While I absolutely respect the independence of the Israeli Justice System, and its requirements, I believe that the ‘case’ against Bibi, who has fought alongside me for a long time, including against the very tough adversary of Israel, Iran, is a political, unjustified prosecution," Trump continued in the letter.

This is being widely viewed, especially by the domestic opponents of the Netanyahu government, as a brazen attempt to intervene in Israel's judicial system. Trump has tried a similar intervention against the ongoing prosecution of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro.

Trump said in the letter that US-Israel relations stand strong at a "historic time, as we have, together, just secured peace that has been sought for at least 3,000 years."

The Israeli president's office confirmed Wednesday, "This morning, President Isaac Herzog received the attached letter from U.S. President Donald Trump, calling on him to consider granting a pardon to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu."

Recent reports and statements out of the White House indicate Netanyahu came under unprecedented pressure from Trump to accept the historic Gaza ceasefire deal, which has held for a little over one month. Trump's lobbying for dismissal on Netanyahu's behalf could be part of quid pro quo connected with achieving the celebrated truce.

"Now that we have achieved these unprecedented successes, and are keeping Hamas in check, it is time to let Bibi unite Israel by pardoning him, and ending that lawfare once and for all," Trump wrote.

The trial began in May 2020 and has been going on-and-off throughout wars and major geopolitical shifts in the Middle East, including the conflicts with Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria. 

NEW - Trump sends a letter to President Herzog formally asking him to pardon Netanyahu, saying the case against him is "a political, unjustified prosecution." pic.twitter.com/DTZNGqI0a2

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) November 12, 2025

The trial focuses on three corruption cases - including charges of fraud and breach of trust, as well as charges of bribery. The allegations range from illegally receiving expensive gifts based on political favors, to quid pro quo agreements with some Israeli media sources for more favorable coverage, to authorizing telecom-related regulatory decisions to benefit friends and allies.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 22:10

Cloned Foods Are Coming To A Grocer Near You

Authored by Sylvain Charlebois via The Epoch Times,

Cloned-animal foods could soon enter Canada’s food supply with no labels identifying them as cloned and no warning to consumers - a move that risks eroding public trust.

According to Health Canada’s own consultation documents, Ottawa intends to remove foods derived from cloned animals from its “novel foods” list, the process that requires a pre-market safety review and public disclosure. Health Canada defines “novel foods” as products that haven’t been commonly consumed before or that use new production processes requiring extra safety checks.

From a regulatory standpoint, this looks like an efficiency measure. From a consumer-trust standpoint, it’s a miscalculation.

Health Canada argues that cloned animals and their offspring are indistinguishable from conventional ones, so they should be treated the same. The problem isn’t the science—it’s the silence. Canadians are not being told that the rules for a controversial technology are about to change. No press release, no public statement, just a quiet update on a government website most citizens will never read.

Cloning in agriculture means producing an exact genetic copy of an animal, usually for breeding purposes. The clones themselves rarely end up on dinner plates, but their offspring do, showing up in everyday products such as beef, milk, or pork. The benefits are indirect: steadier production, fewer losses from disease, or more uniform quality.

But consumers see no gain at checkout. Cloning is expensive and brings no visible improvement in taste, nutrition, or price. Shoppers could one day buy steak from the offspring of a cloned cow without any way of knowing, and still pay the same, if not more, for it.

Without labels identifying the cloned origin, potential efficiencies stay hidden upstream. When products born of new technologies are mixed in with conventional ones, consumers lose their ability to differentiate, reward innovation, or make an informed choice. In the end, the industry keeps the savings while shoppers see none.

And it isn’t only shoppers who are left in the dark. Exporters could soon pay the price too. Canada exports billions in beef and pork annually, including to the EU. If cloned-origin products enter the supply chain without labelling, Canadian exporters could face additional scrutiny or restrictions in markets where cloning is not accepted. A regulatory shortcut at home could quickly become a market barrier abroad.

This debate comes at a time when public trust in Canada’s food system is already fragile. A 2023 survey by the Canadian Centre for Food Integrity found that only 36 percent of Canadians believe the food industry is “heading in the right direction,” and fewer than half trust government regulators to be transparent. Inserting cloned foods quietly into the supply without disclosure would only deepen that skepticism.

This is exactly how Canada became trapped in the endless genetically modified organism (GMO) debate. Two decades ago, regulators and companies quietly introduced a complex technology without giving consumers the chance to understand it. By denying transparency, they also denied trust. The result was years of confusion, suspicion, and polarization that persist today.

Transparency shouldn’t be optional in a democracy that prides itself on science-based regulation. Even if the food is safe, and current evidence suggests it is, Canadians deserve to know how what they eat is produced.

The irony is that this change could have been handled responsibly. Small gestures like a brief notice, an explanatory Q&A, or a commitment to review labelling once international consensus emerges would have shown respect for the public and preserved confidence in our food system.

Instead, Ottawa risks repeating an old mistake: mistaking regulatory efficiency for good governance. At a time when consumer trust in food pricing, corporate ethics, and government oversight is already fragile, the last thing Canada needs is another quiet policy that feels like a secret.

Cloning may not change the look or taste of what’s on your plate, but how it gets there should still matter.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 21:45

Move Over Mamdani, Seattle Set To Elect Socialist Mega-Karen Mayor

Self-avowed socialist Katie Wilson is on the brink of winning Seattle's mayoral race in what is the latest sign that the Democrat Party is shifting even further to the left.

As of Tuesday, Wilson pulled ahead of incumbent Bruce Harrel by a mere 1,300 votes. Wilson overtook Harrel with the help of mail-in ballots, which have favored the socialist by wide margins, according to King County Elections.

"Kate Wilson won 61.23% of the 6,121 ballots counted today," said local political consultant Crystal Fincher. "I'm comfortable calling this race for Wilson now.”

Politico reports:

Ms. Wilson, who describes herself as a socialist, centered her campaign on housing affordability and economic inequality—themes that echo New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani's progressive platform. She proposed a capital gains tax to generate revenue, stronger tenant protections, and expanded public transit.

The message resonated in a city where median home prices have soared beyond the reach of many residents. Ms. Fincher noted a generational divide over economic concerns. "There's a disconnect between what younger people are going through in day to day life today," she said.

Despite Wilson’s all-but-certain victory, some Washington state Republicans are licking their chops over a socialist running Seattle.

Washington State Republican Chairman Jim Walsh believes Wilson "would be very bad for Seattle, but very good for the Washington state Republican Party.”

However, Wilson isn’t declaring victory just yet, telling reporters, “We’re going to wait for all of the ballots to be counted, but I think we won this race.”

Some are comparing Wilson to Zohran Mamdani, whose nine-point demolition of Andrew Cuomo in the New York mayoral race has thrust City Hall into the hands of a 34-year-old democratic socialist whose policy agenda threatens to upend the city’s fragile post-pandemic fiscal equilibrium and accelerate the exodus of capital and talent.

Mamdani's radical platform. such as fare-free transit, city-run grocery stores, rent freezes on all stabilized units, and a 2% “mansion tax” on residences above $5 million, would add at least $18 billion in annual spending, according to preliminary estimates from the Independent Budget Office.

Ahead of taking office, Mamdani is already attempting to repair his relationship with President Donald Trump, telling local media that good relations “will be critical to the success” of the city, and said that he plans to call the president soon.

“I will be proactive in the work that I do, and I think that is because the responsibility I hold to 8.5 million people being their mayor,” Mamdani said. “It is important that you are open to working with anyone, no matter what disagreements you may have. And, I’ve said this when it pertains to President Trump, that President Trump wants to speak about lowering the cost of living or delivering cheaper groceries like he ran on, I’m there to have that conversation.”

In a recent interview with Fox News Channel host Bret Baier, Trump warned that Mamdani was off to a “bad start” by targeting him repeatedly in his victory address.

“It was a very angry speech, certainly angry toward me,” Trump told Baier. “I think he should be very nice to me. You know, I’m the one that sort of has to approve a lot of things coming for him. So, he’s off to a bad start.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 21:20

The government will reopen soon, and the statistical agencies will post new schedules. It is likely that the October employment and CPI reports will never be released since the data wasn't gathered.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday (red will Not be released);
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.

• At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for October from the BLS.

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince May Provide Boost To US Nuclear Industry

Authored by Steffan Szumowski via The Nuclear Review

I recently enjoyed a conversation with an American energy industry executive who has lived and worked in Saudi Arabia for a number of years. He provided some unique insight into the US nuclear industry's potential opportunities with Saudi Arabia.

When the future King of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) visits the White House on November 18th, he will bring with him a number of major agreements and business deals. Among these may be the long-awaited US-Saudi Nuclear Energy Cooperation Agreement (referred to as a "123 Agreement", the section of the Atomic Energy Act that governs US technology transfer to international partners). That agreement, under discussion for over a decade, appears to be close to finalization and may lead to significant business for US nuclear companies.This pact would enable the transfer of US nuclear technology, materials, and expertise to Saudi Arabia, facilitating Riyadh's civil nuclear program that aims to build at least two large pressurized water reactors (PWRs) on the Arabian Gulf under a new holding company, the Duwayhin Nuclear Energy Company (DNEC).

DNEC submitted a site license application to the Saudi Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Commission (NRRC) in May 2022 for its flagship Duwaiheen Nuclear Power Plant on the Gulf coast, targeting an initial capacity of 2.8 GW. Observers note that 2.8 GW matches the output of two of KEPCO's AP-1400 reactors, the same built across the border in UAE, leading many to speculate that the Koreans have been in the lead for supplying the Saudi's nuclear plant technology.

The associated tender for the two Duwaiheen plants, launched in 2022, has faced multiple delays. Initially slated for bids in April 2024, the deadline shifted repeatedly and still remains pending. Analysts have understood it to be the Saudi's intention to delay selection until after a 123 Agreement is signed in order to enable US companies to bid on the project and to ensure that the Saudi program has a nod of approval from the US.

If President Trump and MBS complete a 123 Agreement, it could manifest in a multibillion-dollar windfall for US firms (similar to the recent nuclear investments announced by Japan and South Korea), positioning them as frontrunners for the first two DNEC large scale reactors and in the long term capture a large share of the nascent Saudi nuclear market. This would mark a major departure from the UAE's program where KEPCO was the big winner and US firms like Westinghouse and Holtec have only a fraction of the total market. If Riyadh, as likely desired by the Trump administration, is able to direct contracts preferentially to American partners, eschewing rivals like KEPCO, Russia's Rosatom or China's CNNC, key beneficiaries emerge.

Westinghouse, owned by Brookfield and Cameco, stands to dominate with its AP1000 design. With Trump administration nudging, Westinghouse could supplant KEPCO's apparent lead and flip the script from how the Emirati program developed (where KEPCO led and Westinghouse followed as a tech and services provider). In fact, Korean news agencies reported last month that US officials have pressured the Korean government for KEPCO to take a back-seat in the Saudi program and act in a supporting role for AP1000 deployment at Duwaiheen.

Another likely winner is Bechtel, the privately-held American construction giant that is closely tied to Westinghouse's AP1000 projects. Bechtel is one of the largest American players in the Saudi market, having been there since the 1940s and serving as a trusted construction partner in the Kingdom. Bechtel is the most likely winner of EPC contracts if the Saudis choose to buy American. Some characterize Bechtel's structure and leadership in Saudi Arabia as a "dream team" for the development of American nuclear projects in Saudi Arabia.

Other companies to watch include Holtec, who has done well in UAE and has developed a reputation as a reliable partner in spent fuel management. X-energy stands out among new nuclear companies, as well. Their Chairman, Kam Ghaffarian, is well respected in Saudi Arabia for the success of his space company, Axiom, who launched two Saudi astronauts into orbit in 2023, including the first woman Saudi astronaut. Ghaffarian could turn that goodwill into business for X-energy's Xe-100 SMR design and their TRISO-X fuel project.

Broader implications ripple outward: US exporters gain market share in a region eyeing 20 GW of nuclear by 2030, hedging oil volatility and exporting high-skill jobs. For Saudi, it means technology transfer, local content mandates (jobs and contracts for Saudis and Saudi companies) and further energy independence, reducing 30% of domestic oil burn and making that oil available for exports (and revenue).

Risks of the 123 Agreement not happening persist. Continued back-and-forth over Saudi enrichment and fuel cycle desires have long slowed progress. Some analysts believe those issues have been resolved or deferred. Additional risk could come from Congress that, although not required to approve a 123 Agreement, could take action to review or stall the agreement, derailing follow-on opportunities for US business. But, a November signing would signal thawed ties and increasing interest in how US nuclear companies can gain international market share via Saudi Arabia, the world's energy powerhouse.

With MBS's visit looming, stakeholders should watch closely: a deal struck could impact nuclear-related commodities and US nuclear order books.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 18:25

Leftists Seek To Sabotage Conservative-Run Communities Before They Start

It's an outcome that survival and preparedness experts have been predicting for years:  The engineered decline of US cities into lawlessness supported by progressive political relativism, leading to an exodus of conservatives (and anyone else with a brain) to rural America. 

The formation of separate conservative communities is a natural response to the political divisiveness of far-left controlled urban centers, as well as the disturbing revelations of pandemic lockdown hysteria in blue cities and states.  However, when dealing with any progressive movement it's important to remember that communists and their ideological cousins don't like it when the people they are trying to control walk away and start their own thing. 

This is not allowed.  You're supposed to stick around and act as their punching bag. 

The liberal hostility towards conservative-dominant communities is swift and consistent.  Survival communities are ridiculed as "doomsday prepper" paranoia.  Conservative and libertarian voting enclaves are attacked as "exclusionary" or "dangerous".  And Christian communities are slandered as "White Nationalist" and racist.  It's clear that it is the media machine's job, not just their pleasure, to undermine any attempt any conservative group makes to form tight knit neighborhoods or towns. 

Establishment journalists are usually careful to avoid direct libel.  Instead, they draw loose associations and connections between these communities and racist or authoritarian ideologies ("You know, Hitler was into those kinds of homogeneous communities.  Therefore, you might be Hitler...").

Rolling Stone (yes, they still exist) has perpetrated a similar hatchet job on a company called RidgeRunner which is setting out to finance and build a large Christian conservative "town and country" charter community in Jackson County, TN.  The far-left outlet makes it clear that they think these kinds of projects need to be stopped.

The magazine notes that a handful of business leaders in Jackson County are concerned about the project, describing their criticism as a rebuke to what they see as:

"RidgeRunner's exclusionary ethos, which they believe renders anyone not a white, Protestant man as a second-class citizen - or maybe not even a citizen at all..."

Of course, this is a second hand opinion summarized and interpreted by a magazine with obvious bias.  Rolling Stone admits that RidgeRunner's CEO, Josh Abbotoy, does not identify as Christian Nationalist, though they still try to connect him to the ideology through some of his customers.  But even if the accusations are accurate, why does it matter? 

Why is it wrong for Christians and conservatives to separate into their own communities with their own shared culture and values in a country that was founded on those same values?     

The criticisms hinge on a growing conspiracy theory within the activist left that the Trump Administration is part of a network of "overlapping Christian nationalist groups" trying to take total power in America.  Rolling Stone goes into detail, connecting dots between government figures like Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and House Speaker Mike Johnson to a variety of Christian nationalist associations.  Rolling Stone says:

"What separates RidgeRunner from previous religious or political enclaves is the scale of its ambition. RidgeRunner’s Jackson County developments are a model for what the company and others like it hope to export around the country. And with supporters and friends in and around the Trump administration, as well as among powerful conservative think tanks such as the Claremont Institute, where Abbotoy was a fellow in 2023, and the Heritage Foundation, RidgeRunner may be able to make its goals a reality..."  

And this is what scares them; that the company might set a new precedent for large scale conservative community, and that this idea will spread like wildfire.  What terrifies them is that such communities will be successful, put deep blue cities to shame, and create a national standard.  Leftists prefer you to believe only their way is the right way.

The incorporation of land for use in establishing exclusive communities is not a new idea and is one of the few ways in which any group of people in the US can determine who they associate with and who gets to live next to them.  Keep in mind that liberals have supported such exclusive communities for decades, as long as they are run by non-white, non-conservative and non-Christian organizations. 

For example, you won't hear much screeching from the left about the Muslim "Sharia Law" town called Epic City (name recently changed to The Meadow) in Texas which is intended to include thousands of homes on hundreds of acres.  They don't publish attack pieces against the Madinah Lakes Muslim project in Minnesota which will include 1500 family homes.  

There a numerous ethnic exclusive communities in the US, some of them using the same arguments for their separate existence as RidgeRunner.

These projects have faced extensive opposition from local populations trying to prevent the communities from being built due to ideological incompatibility, but you won't see outlets like Rolling Stone citing these projects and linking them to Islamic authoritarianism and terrorism.  If anything, activist journalists defend these communities and attack anyone who is critical.   

The question is, why the double standard?

If the political left is adept at understanding anything, it's the value of organization.  When examined up close, the woke movement is a paper tiger, a largely astroturfed color revolution funded by NGOs with maybe 25% of Democrats operating a staunch followers.  But despite their lack of true numbers, the woke movement managed to take total control of the Democratic Party and the US government for at least 4 years. 

This is the true power of organization - 100 dedicated people can wield immense influence over their environment when they work closely together towards the same goal rather than remaining scattered and disassociated. 

Progressives understand very well that the moment conservatives and populists organize, the left is done for.  Their movements will lose all relevancy and they will fade into obscurity when people can walk away and join something better.  This helps to explain the otherwise bizarre obsession the media has with casting doubts on every single conservative community effort. 

Their primary tactic is to link conservative communities and Christian nationalism with "white supremacy", but this method is not working as well for them as it used to.  The real crux of their opposition can be found in here: 

“We have free speech, and people can say what they want,” (Says RidgeRunner supporter Mickie Davis). “Until they take away basic rights from someone, they [RidgeRunner] should be able to do whatever they want.” 

But Rolling Stone takes issue with this:

"This live-and-let-live argument is popular among RidgeRunner’s backers. But the concern is if nothing is done now, once these communities are populated, it’ll be too late. In a county where commissioners typically win with 250 to 300 total votes, and town aldermen can win with little more than 100, it doesn’t take a huge influx of new voters to flex real political muscle."    

It's about maintaining power over culture, and through this, maintaining power over government.  Even on a small scale in small towns the political left cannot allow effective conservative separation based on cultural principles. Because the moment one group does it and prevails, the model will spread across the country.   

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 18:00

Trump Admin's Move To Cut CFPB Follows Massive Data Leak Scandal

Via American Greatness,

Progressives are trumpeting a report that consumers’ financial data may be less secure following Trump administration efforts to shrink the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

But in their eagerness to attack Trump, attention is refocusing on a massive scandal that plagued the “consumer watchdog” agency under Joe Biden– one that left over 250,000 people’s data exposed.

Democrat Rep. Maxine Waters—a top MAGA foe— blasted Trump’s efforts to downsize the CFPB, claiming staffing and contractor cuts put Americans’ data at risk.

In a statement, Waters said, “Over the past year, we have witnessed an unprecedented assault on the CFPB by the Trump Administration, which has systematically weakened the agency’s abilities to protect American consumers.”

Waters added that Trump administration efforts to shrink the federal workforce and expenditure of taxpayer money on high-priced government contractors “paved the way for the alarming findings in the report.”

But critics say that in blasting current Bureau chief, MAGA favorite Russ Vought, progressives like Waters are forgetting about the biggest threat to consumer data security in recent years: A massive data leak that occurred under the previous Biden administration, under the leadership of leftist favorite, former CFPB head Rohit Chopra. And by attacking Trump now, they are merely serving to highlight the leak and the huge risks of the agency having such expansive power and authority.

Around Valentine’s Day 2023, a CFPB staffer leaked the financial information of over 250,000 Americans.

While the staffer was fired, it remains unclear to this day what other action was taken to rectify the leak by Biden administration officials, including Chopra.

No prosecution of the staffer in question appears to have occurred.

Chopra, who ran the agency when the leak occurred, was not sanctioned.

Financial institutions overseen by the CFPB indicated at the time that they were asked to notify their customers whose data had been leaked of the event, instead of CFPB doing so.

Some institutions privately criticized the plan as likely to result in their being erroneously blamed for the leak, when in fact it was a CFPB problem.

One financial services industry advocate told American Greatness that over two years later, it is still unclear whether all affected consumers ever were notified that their data had been leaked.

“Reporters covering this were told they had been, but CFPB was very cagey about providing the text of letters or emails that would have been used to notify customers. No one really knows for sure, to this day,” one consultant working on CFPB regulatory issues said.

At the time, now-retired House Financial Services Chairman Patrick McHenry said that the “breach raises concerns with how the CFPB safeguards consumers’ personally identifiable information.”

McHenry pledged that Republicans would ensure that any bad actors were held accountable.

However, lobbyists working on financial regulation say that some Republicans on McHenry’s former committee still feel full answers were never provided by Chopra or the CFPB.

Progressive gloating over the current allegations of inadequate data security at CFPB may prompt Vought and relevant oversight committees to look again at the circumstances surrounding the leak, which remains one of the bigger, but less publicized scandals, of the Biden era.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 17:40

No Regrets: Sharaa Says Trump Didn't Bring Up His Al-Qaeda Past

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa said in an interview with Fox News that President Trump didn't bring up his past as an al-Qaeda fighter and commander during their meeting at the White House on Monday.

"I think this is a matter of the past now," Sharaa said through a translator when asked if Trump raised his al-Qaeda history. "We did not discuss this actively. We talked about the present and the future. We talked about the investment opportunities in the future, so that Syria is no longer looked at as a security threat, but it is now looked at as a geopolitical ally and a place where the United States can have great investments, especially extracting gas."

Via Associated Press

When asked if he had "regrets" that al-Qaeda carried out the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001, Sharaa said he wasn’t involved with the group at the time.

"I was only 19 years old, I was a very young person, and didn’t have any decision-making power at that time, and I didn’t have anything to do with it. Al-Qaeda wasn’t present then in my area, so you’re speaking to the wrong person about this subject," he said.

"We mourn for every civilian that got killed, and we know that people suffer from the war, especially civilians who paid a price, a hefty price, for the war," Sharaa added.

The US fought the "war on terror" for more than 20 years -- it's ongoing. It not only cost trillions of dollars and more than a million lives, but radically and permanently eroded core civil liberties for Americans.

Now, someone the DOJ called an Al Qaeda terrorist less than a… https://t.co/efxKy1YqJ3

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) November 11, 2025

Sharaa first joined al-Qaeda after the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 to fight US troops, and was imprisoned by the US military from 2006 to 2011. After that, he traveled to Syria, where he founded the al-Qaeda affiliate in the country, known as the al-Nusra Front.

At the time, he was allied with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the founder of ISIS. Sharaa rebranded in 2016, claiming he cut ties with al-Qaeda, and merged his jihadist group with other factions to form Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which took power in Damascus in December 2024.

Sorry but it’s very funny they’ve not deleted this https://t.co/tqzbTlSECF

— Congolesa Rice (@judeinlondon) November 11, 2025

Now, the US is working to build a military alliance with the HTS-led Syrian government. Syrian Information Minister Hamza al-Mustafa announced that Syria has joined the US-led anti-ISIS coalition, and Reuters reported last week that the US is planning to establish a military base in Damascus.

* * *

Meanwhile, the absurdity of this scene...

US President Donald Trump applied perfume to Syria’s interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, known by his nom de guerre al-Julani, and his foreign minister at the White House. pic.twitter.com/g634I8IgNe

— IRNA News Agency (@IrnaEnglish) November 12, 2025

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 17:20

 

 

This week, I speak with Kristin Olson, global head of alternatives for wealth at Goldman Sachs. We discuss the alternate investing space, allocating money long-term and making alternatives more accessible to individual investors.

The self-described GS “lifer” has been there for 26 years. She started as investment banking analyst, but soon after pivoted to wealth management, focusing on alternatives. She led GS’s alt capital markets group for 23 years, overseeing 140 employees supervises about $500 billion in alt investments annually from wealth management clients.

A list of her favorite books is here.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this weekend with Bankim “Binky” Chadha, Chief US Equity & Global Strategist and Head of Asset Allocation at Deutsche Bank Securities, a role he has held since 2004.

 

 

 

Favorite Books

 

 

 

 

 

 

The post MiB: Kristin Olson, Global Head of Alternatives for Wealth at Goldman Sachs appeared first on The Big Picture.

In California, Hate Won Again

Authored by Edward Ring via American Greatness,

“Stick it to Trump.”

That is the strategy of the Democratic Party in California, and it’s working.

For 28 years, the Democrats have controlled both houses of the state legislature, and apart from Schwarzenegger’s interlude from 2004 to 2010, there’s been a Democrat governor since 1999.

Nothing seems likely to change; this month, California’s voters approved a redistricting plan that is expected to reduce the number of Republican U.S. Congressmen to four out of 52. Democratic dominance in California’s cities and counties is equally absolute.

And yet they’re not accountable.

Democrats in California have perfected the art of persuasion with an electorate that for over two generations has been indoctrinated in public schools by teachers who themselves have been indoctrinated to hate capitalism, resent wealth, rebuke “whiteness,” and celebrate hedonism. All Democrat candidates have to say is “protect abortion,” “fight racism,” “climate emergency,” or “stop the Nazis,” and voter reaction is Pavlovian. Peak conditioning was achieved in the special election of 2025, when all they had to say was “stick it to Trump,” who they have turned into the biggest boogeyman since Hitler (someone who, just to be clear, really was a boogeyman).

So who are these Democrats?

Who are the elites that have locked down the largest state in America, and who aspire to extend their dominion over the rest of America?

The figurehead, of course, is the suddenly pugilistic Gavin Newsom, a gifted politician and a terrible governor.

His latest schtick is to throw out profanity and threats as if he’s the noirish reincarnation of a 1930s gangster. And in an intriguing twist, this phony act camouflages a genuine thug because the substance of Newsom and the machine he represents are crimes against the people of California, justified and sold with lies.

Newsom is the front man for a coalition of public sector unions, including the communist teachers union, radical environmentalists and their crony corporate backers, grifting “homeless advocates” and the politically connected and taxpayer subsidized developers who back them, a public sector bureaucracy that preys on law abiding people trying to run small businesses while deliberately ignoring an entire underground economy of illegal immigrants, trial attorneys and litigators who feed on private attorney general laws that empower them to exploit countless laws and regulations to extort money from honest people, addict enabling civil liberty extremists and the libertarian dupes who find common cause with them, tribal “nations” who extract billions from gambling addicts and exercise increasing veto power over anything anyone does anywhere in the “stolen” state, drug addicts, drug dealers, and drug cartels who control entire sections of California’s major cities and thousands of square miles of territory in California’s remote northern counties.

That’s who’s running California. That’s the coalition. It survives on synergy, and if not synergy, symbiosis. The political economy of California is not socialist; it’s fascist. Economic fascism whereby the largest corporations, the biggest unions, and powerful government agencies work in lockstep to eliminate competition, consolidate power and control, and maximize profits. Ideological fascism whereby the population is manipulated by continuous presentation of scapegoats and threats—Nazis and Nazism, racists and racism, sexists and sexism, climate deniers and the climate emergency. The list goes on, but you get the idea.

It’s too bad California’s voters don’t get out more. Take a drive down South Figueroa Boulevard in Central Los Angeles and have a look at the prostitutes who police can’t rescue from traffickers because it violates state laws. Drive through the Tenderloin in San Francisco and observe the blitzed-out fentanyl addicts and schizophrenics. Or to really experience an eye-opener, talk with members of law enforcement in Mendocino County in California’s remote north, and ask them how they intend to root out the illegal drug plantations and drug processing labs when they’ve got less than a dozen deputies to cover a county that spans 3,878 square miles. Ditto for Humboldt County and Siskiyou County.

In all of these hypothetical fact-finding drives and countless others, don’t stop. Don’t get out of your car. You are not in America anymore. You are traversing territory controlled by foreign gangs and their local affiliates, funded by hundreds of billions collected from addicts, at least those millions who are still alive, since over one million Americans have died from overdoses of illegal drugs just over the past decade. And while you’re at it, reflect on the fact that these foreign drug cartels receive logistical support from aspiring superpowers bent on destroying America.

California’s maladies ought to be patently obvious to its voters, but instead of recognizing that federal intervention is the only way we might have a hope of rooting international drug and human traffickers and foreign intelligence operatives out of our cities and sparsely populated areas, these voters hear a nonstop barrage of distracting propaganda from the coalition.

It is unrelenting and scientifically tested for effect. It sounds simple, but it works: “President Trump wants to be a dictator, and he’s throwing away the Constitution.” No. He doesn’t, and no, he isn’t. And every year we wait to try to reassert control of our state, the evil infiltration of the “coalition” proceeds deeper into its vacuous, grifting heart.

What ought to be perfectly clear to Californian voters is that we are losing our state. Where do California’s voters think all that money from trafficking, prostitution, gambling, and drug profits goes? Their wealth accumulates, and they hire armies. These armies aren’t just a small gang of goons. These armies have thousands of soldiers, including experienced mercenaries and assassins, sophisticated attorneys and accountants, chemists and engineers, police, and politicians.

Keep it up, California. Keep listening to the dangerous clowns who lead the ruling coalition. Let them destroy the oil industry until there are lines for gasoline and the price goes from $5/gallon to $10/gallon. Let them shut down natural gas and nuclear-fueled power plants at the same time as EVs and AI are rolling out, so there are brownouts and blackouts, and electricity rises from $.30/kWh to $.60/kWh. And while they laugh all the way to the bank as you pay four times the national average price for gasoline and electricity, remember it’s because of the “climate emergency.”

Keep it up, California. Keep pretending that “reparations” in the form of affirmative action, contract preferences, and hiring quotas weren’t enough, as if they did anything but harm the people they were intended to help anyway. Go ahead and accept that now taxpayers have to shell out additional billions of dollars to descendants of African slaves and indigenous “first peoples.” Keep on sitting still, silent, and obedient, while yet another coalition hack precedes a public meeting with a “stolen land acknowledgement.” When liberal, Democrat-appointed, paid-for judges uphold transfers of land and gifts of cash to self-proclaimed tribes that the federal government doesn’t even recognize, remember you allowed the precedent to be set every time one of your nitwit coalition politicians opened a public meeting with a stolen land acknowledgement.

More to the point, as the state races to set aside 30 percent of all land to either belong to “first peoples,” government wilderness reserves, or nature conservancies managed by NGOs, remember that 94 percent of California’s population lives on only five percent of the state’s land area. Remember that developers and investors are routinely denied permits to build homes, reservoirs, and roads or develop practical sources of energy, and remember that all of this is why the average home in California costs over $800,000. Who then, in this enlightened new century, is being herded onto reservations?

California’s thoroughly conditioned voters can keep up their delusions of righteousness until the entire system fails, as all systems that are built on corruption must. They can retain their smug hatred of conservative Republicans until the price of gas immobilizes millions, the state declares insolvency, and the suddenly bereft beneficiaries of free everything pour out of their state-subsidized, crime-ridden, dilapidated, and decaying “affordable housing” and loot everything in sight. Until that day, California’s progressives can indulge their anti-fascist fascist fantasies, believing in the inevitable triumph of their passions with the same fervor that animated the stormtroopers basking in Nuremberg’s Cathedrals of Light. They, too, were so sure of themselves until bombs started falling like rain.

There’s something that Californians who fervently support the state’s disenfranchising, downwardly mobile, ongoing excursion into degeneracy will have to face. Things will not get worse forever. California’s voters have rejected rational recognition of policies running amok to enrich a deceitful coalition of elites. They have instead chosen an all-consuming righteous hatred of MAGA and all the previous iterations of right-wing scapegoats for which MAGA is merely the apotheosis. For a generation, voter denial of common sense in favor of self-righteous hate has sustained an elite coalition that has nothing but contempt for the generations of hard-working Californians who built the state and even now keep it afloat.

Economic reality will dismantle this dysfunctional political consensus. The coalition could fracture explosively, with the most powerful functioning remnants also the most lawless and deadly. This is what California’s voters flirt with, as they vote for financially unsustainable, character-destroying nonsense in the name of compassion and anti-fascism. The depth of irony at work here is historic in scope. If chaos erupts in California, spreading out of the current no-go zones of the inner cities and coming down from remote mountains, armed, desperate, and ruthless, what suspension of civil liberties would then become necessary to restore order and ensure safety?

The alternative is to restore common-sense government today, if it’s not too late. But judging from the results on November 4, common sense and California’s electorate are still worlds apart.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 17:00

CIA Met With Ralph Baric In 2015 To Discuss "Coronavirus Evolution And Possible Human Adaptation": Emails

New documents released Oct. 30 by Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) offer a potential smoking gun regarding American complicity in the creation of COVID-19. 

As the Daily Caller's Emily Kopp writes: 

New documents show that intelligence risked implicating ODNI’s own bioengineering advisor — University of North Carolina professor Ralph Baric.

Baric, who engineered novel coronaviruses with the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), advised ODNI four times a year on biological threats, according to documents released Oct. 30 by Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul.

...

The professor’s ties to American intelligence may run even deeper, the documents reveal, as ODNI facilitated a meeting between the CIA and Baric about a project on coronaviruses in September 2015.

The email exchange with the subject line “Request for Your Expertise” shows an unnamed government official with a CIA-affiliated email address pitching a “possible project” to Baric relating to “[c]oronavirus evolution and possible natural human adaptation.”

The new documents add to the growing body of evidence that our own intelligence agencies knew more about the threat posed by manipulating bat COVID in a lab than they told the public.

Sen. Paul is seeking more documents from ODNI regarding potential ties between US intelligence and the Wuhan lab as part of an ongoing investigation, and will hold public hearings in the coming months. 

Of note, current DNI Tulsi Gabbard disbanded the ODNI biological threats office earlier this year following questions by the Caller regarding its suppression of COVID origins intel in August. 

In January of 2020, Baric gave a presentation to the ODNI in which he advised US intelligence that COVID-19 may have emerged from a lab, and that the Wuhan Institute of Virology had sequenced thousands of SARS-like coronaviruses - including strains that could cause an epidemic. 

Baric, who created special 'humanized mice' for the lab to test COVID on lung tissue, noted that WIV works under low biosafety levels. 

He did not tell ODNI that he had applied for a grant in 2018 to conduct research that could lead to the creation of COVID-19, 'jotting in the margins of a draft of the grant application that Americans would “freak out” if they knew about the shoddy standards.'

And in January 2021, when the State Department pushed to declassify certain US intelligence regarding the lab leak, ODNI raised concerns that it would "call out actions that we ourselves are doing."

Former ODNI National Counterproliferation and Biosecurity Center (NCBC) Director Kathryn Brinsfield, a medical doctor, also dismissed a January 2021 presentation by government officials about a plausible lab origin of COVID as “misinformation,” two sources told the DCNF. Her top aide Zach Bernstein, who possesses a master’s degree in security studies but no scientific credentials, also dismissed the presentation, according to three sources. -Daily Caller

The report notes that the precise nature of the CIA's interest in Baric's COVID work remains unknown - as the documents don't elaborate on work that the CIA and Baric may or may not have undertaken. 

Interesting, USAID funded the discovery of novel coronaviruses - and shipped samples to WIV through a 2009-2020 program called PREDICT. Kopp also notes that "USAID sometimes acted as a CIA front before Trump dismantled it earlier this year — but no evidence exists that the CIA directed PREDICT."

An unnamed FBI special agent was in communication with Baric about responding to public requests for his research and emails with the Wuhan lab through the North Carolina Freedom of Information Act, according to a 2024 congressional letter, but details about the contact between the FBI and Baric also remain uncertain.

The CIA was slow to acknowledge that a lab was the pandemic’s most likely source, an assessment that the CIA made public more than five years after the pandemic emerged and well after the FBI and the Department of Energy. -Daily Caller

Meanwhile, outlets like ZeroHedge were demonetized, censored, and treated to MSM hit pieces for suggesting that the virus came from the WIV. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 16:40

The Fed & Derivatives: How Complexity Hides Dishonesty

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

I often close public interviews with the recommendation that investors facing an increasingly complex, distorted and landmine-rich economic setting need to focus on being informed rather than emotional.

Free Power

In other words, facts, cycles and patterns matter—in everything from the history of debt cycles and the otherwise “boring” patterns of bond marketsto an ignored template of centralizationwhich always follows bankrupt financial systems.

Being informed offers clarity; being emotional creates fear.

And clarity is both powerful and free.

One does not need millions to feel more empowered in a world otherwise usurping your power with each passing day via the invisible tax of misreported inflation—i.e., open theft through the hidden yet deliberate fiat currency debasement sovereigns employ to inflate away their own criminally negligent bar tab at your expense.

The entire premise of our enterprise of preserving wealth through real money—i.e., precious metals—is built upon such informed thinking.

Trust Your Own Judgement

This does not mean, of course, that being informed means blind conformity to other informed viewpoints—ours or anyone else’s.

I, for example, enjoy debating the dollar/DXY with folks like Brent Johnson or Henrik Zeberg precisely because they are informed disagreements.

In the end, however, we all agree on gold’s penultimate role in preserving real wealth against paper wealth. As I’ve said elsewhere: Today, the case for gold is almost too obvious…

We All See the Cracks

Even more importantly, such informed opinion makes for better strategies and conversations within an economic and geopolitical backdrop which most of us (left or right, rich or poor, black or white, BTC or gold-bugging) would agree is becoming increasingly distorted, dangerous and well, just plain corrupted.

Such corruption is the direct and objective result of the deliberate mismanagement, complexity and dishonesty that underpins a global financial system racing toward a fourth turning whose massive yet not entirely known risks and consequences are playing out with each passing headline.

What Complexity? What Dishonesty?

But what do I mean by deliberate complexity and dishonesty?

As we see below, the most obvious signals can be found within the living case studies of: 1) the not-so-federal “Federal Reserve,” and 2) that other equally grotesque monster hiding in plain sight, namely the global derivatives market.

But before we touch upon these two examples, let me also warn that becoming “informed” comes with a price, typically in the form of deep disillusionment, as the informed are typically a minority crowd.

Melting Laws, Melting Ideas

I know as many lawyer jokes as the next guy, but in truth, nothing I’ve studied (from Plato to Dalio) compares to what I learned in the first year of law school.

Lawyers, after all, make it easy to laugh at, well…the law.

But the very structure and mechanics of our society can be found in the beautiful ideals of a 1L (first-year) legal curriculum.

Constitutional law, for example, grants free society an institutional framework. Criminal Law, in theory at least, lauds justice while punishing those who abuse it. To make that system work, you also need the laws of Civil Procedure. No less important to free citizens is a way to govern ideals of domain, i.e., Property Law.

Finally, and of equal importance, we need to believe and know that citizens, from the governed to the governing, from Wall Street to Main Street, will keep their agreements and honor their promises. That’s Contracts Law.

But sadly, and boy do I mean sadly, we see that these bedrock principles of our core structural and societal laws are, like our fiat dollars, melting before our very closed eyes.

How so?

Well, let’s get back to today’s two case studies: The Federal Reserve and the global derivatives markets.

First: The Fed

I’ve written ad nauseum about the Fed (here, here and elsewhere), and won’t repeat all its numerous sins.

Instead, let’s just stick to the simple crazy and see how our government broke its constitutional contract with its citizens yet paid no criminal price for its clever theft/crime.

In 1913, a cabal of private bankers convinced Woodrow Wilson to make legal a Federal Reserve, which now sits on Constitution Avenue, that is objectively neither “federal,” a “reserve” nor even remotely constitutional.

Yet almost no one understands what it does, how it works or what it destroys.

How the Fed Works…

In simple yet objective terms, the Fed is a private bank which includes 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, from Richmond to Boston.

These reserve banks, managed by a board of governors, are private corporations whose shareholders are those TBTF commercial banks, which you readers helped bail out in 2008.

As Fed shareholders, these private banks and their unelected CIO’s (Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs etc.) effectively own the Fed, and they receive a 6% dividend from the Fed every year.

Again, not very “federal”, is it?

But it gets crazier.

How the Fed Steals…

If you can actually find a dollar bill, you’ll see that it says “Federal Reserve Note” across the top of its fading paper.

By “Note,” this just means that a dollar is a promise to pay—i.e., it’s credit. An IOU, a debt instrument. It’s no longer backed by anything real—it’s just a (broken) promise to be a store of value.

In 1913, President Wilson, the leader and fiduciary for all US citizens, granted this private bank the power to create as many of those dollars as it wanted. That’s what the Fed does.

But how does the Fed earn/create those dollars?

Literally out of thin air. Money is created with a mouse click out of a computer at the Eccles Building. Yes. Really.

The Fed then lends these magical dollars to the US Treasury Department (via “open market operations”) to pay for Uncle Sam’s ever-expanding deficits.

We, the taxpayers, then pay interest (i.e., a forced profit) to the Fed for those created/lent dollars.

But here’s the rub and the question which is never taught in schools—from high school civics to Wharton MBA programs: To whom does the Fed owe money?

The answer is: To no one.

The Fed, which has the power to create unlimited dollars which it then lends out for interest payments (i.e., profit) to itself, is not beholden to anyone. It’s a private cabal which profits for free while debasing your greenback.

This literally makes its immaculate 1913 conception the greatest wealth and power transfer in the history of our now legally neutered nation, for in 1913, the US gave a private bank its once constitutionally-mandated power(Article 1, Section 8) to make and control our money.

Or to misquote Dire Straits, the Fed gets its “money for nothing and its power for free.”

Meanwhile, and since 1971, that same dollar has lost 99% of its purchasing power when measured against the very gold our now insulted Constitution once (1787) promised its dollar to protect its citizens.

That’s a legislative crime for which our criminal laws have done nothing to redress…

Second: The Global Derivative Crime

Speaking of criminal acts and broken contracts, understanding the basics of derivative (i.e. futures, forward and swap) “contracts” will make you both angry and scared.

“Derivatives” literally “derive” from an underlying asset and are little more than uber-levered paper contracts, which institutions say they use to hedge risk in theory.

In actual practice, however, they are nothing more than betting instruments of massive leverage which profit banks when liquidity and markets are smooth, yet crush economies when liquidity and markets misfire.

Again, I’ve written about the absurd math, danger and crimes of these deliberately complex instruments here and here for those seeking more color and cringe.

For now, let’s keep the complex simple.

Remember 2008?

Most of us, for example, recall the Lehman Brothers’ headlines of 2008. At that time, Lehman was telling the markets in had a clean, $600B balance sheet of matched assets and liabilities.

What Lehman did not say, however, is that it also had levered bets (i.e., derivative contracts) on mostly sub-prime mortgages with over $35T in actual (what the fancy lads call “notional”) exposure in underlying bets on pooled mortgages (assets) it never owned—but just levered/gambled on.

But hey, why worry, mortgages never default? Right?

As soon as the bet on the underlying asset went sideways, Lehman was a corpse carried off the Wall Street battlefield.

Sad?

No, tragic.

Why?

Because all the other Wall Street banks and funds were guilty counterparties to the Lehman trade, which means once one domino fell, the others—from AIG to Citi fell too.

The contagion then went global, and when the dust settled, over $25T in bailout funds (from TARP, the Fed and other global central banks) was needed to prevent a global collapse of over $60T in global (and highly complex) notional derivative exposures.

Whewwww.

No Lessons Learned…

The market must have learned a hard lesson in 2008, right?

After all, the Dodd-Frank regulations kicked in to safeguard better transparency and centralized clearing to prevent such levered timebombs from ever risking the financial system again, right?

Wrong.

Fast-forward to 2025, and the notional value of the global derivatives market has skyrocketed from $60T in 2008 to over $600T today.

Read that last line again.

That $600T exposure is 6X global GDP, and if just 5% of this levered market went sideways, the bar tab would be $30T, which is more than the 2008 crisis and far more than any bailout of central banks could afford today.

The Banking Risk No One Sees

What’s even crazier is that the very banks exposed in 2008 to that derivative madness have increased their derivative bets exponentially (by 10X), and in a concentrated manner that defies belief and screams of risk, which almost no one hears or sees.

Today, only four banks (JP Morgan, Citi, BofA & Goldman) hold 90% of the global derivative exposure. JP Morgan has a $54T notional derivative exposure against only $3.7 in total assets and an equity capital of $300B.

Citi is staring at $48T in notional derivative exposure against $2.4T in total assets and $200B in equity capital. Goldman, in turn, has $47T in notional exposure against $1.6 T in total assets and $120B in equity capital, while BofA is risking $37T of derivative bets against $3.1T in total assets and $280B in equity capital.

Folks, this is madness hiding in plain sight.

Risk Has Never Been Higher

The banks, and the economically clueless in the House of Representatives, however, believe that such “sophisticated players” know how to hedge risk with these instruments.

This is what Larry Summers told Congress years before those same players and deregulated derivatives brought the world to its knees in 2008.

What is not said today is that those very same concentrated banks are all “hedged” (i.e., gambling) on the same trades, signals and “good times.”

This means if markets–from Interest rate volatility, the $600B CMBS trade, tanking European banking shares or sovereign credit defaults to geopolitical black swans–ever go from liquid and smooth to illiquid and bumpy, the risk (inevitability) of another derivative-domino nightmare is exponentially higher today than it ever was in 2008.

By the way, each of those foregoing risks/triggers for a derivative implosion are now making ignored but terrifying moves, from post-2022 rate volatility signals and defaulting commercial loans, to Credit-Suisse-like rumblings at Deutsche Bank and sovereign credit risks from Japan and China to even the USA…

Make Your Own Justice

But where’s the justice? Where’s the criminal laws and civil procedures to punish these well-dressed gamblers masquerading as bankers?

Where’s the constitutional guidance to protect the governed from the mafia-like centralization (and usurpation) of our once free markets and free society by a neo-feudalistic minority/monopoly of corporate centralization over our once idealistic and hopeful nation?

Stated more simply: Where are the laws and ideals I knew as a 1L in law school, all lawyer jokes aside?

Gold, of course, can’t protect me or the rest of us from such dishonesty hiding behind intentional complexity. It can’t alas, do everything.

But at least when it comes to protecting us against paper money, which our governments no longer or even constitutionally respect, at least we can do what our now-ignored Constitution originally recommended by backing our fiat toilet paper with real gold.

In short, we can and must consider becoming our own central bankers, and do for ourselves what the Fed has failed to do for the nation—namely, gold-back our own wealth as Article 1, Section 8 warned centuries ago…

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 16:20

When To Expect The Key Economic Reports After The Govt Reopens

When previewing the week's events on Monday, we said that while September's jobs report will likely be published within days of the reopening (tentatively scheduled for this evening's House vote), question marks swirl around the October jobs and CPI prints, and may instead not be published at all and instead will be rolled into the the November reports due in about three weeks time.

Today, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed as much saying that the October jobs and consumer price index reports are unlikely to be released due to the government shutdown.

“The Democrats may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released,” Leavitt told reporters at a news briefing. She also expressed concern that the lack of data is “leaving our policymakers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period.” Federal Reserve officials next meet Dec. 9-10 to decide whether to lower interest rates for a third time this year.

Leavitt didn’t clarify whether she was referring to the entire jobs report or just part of it. The report is composed of two surveys, the Establishment survey of businesses, which produces the main payrolls number, and another of Households, which is responsible for the unemployment rate and a more granular take on the labor market. While many businesses retain their records and report the data themselves electronically, reaching workers over the phone and asking them to recall their employment status for a particular week in October will be more difficult to conduct retroactively.

The White House initially said late last month there would not be an October inflation report, noting it’d be the first time in history the figures would be skipped. At the time, the BLS said it would resume normal operations once funding is restored and would notify the public of any changes to its release schedule.

So far, the BLS has not released an updated schedule for which indicators will be released and when. According to Bloomberg, it’s possible the agency will choose to combine two months’ worth of data for a particular statistic into a singular release to get back on track. 

In the meantime, investors have been relying on alternative economic measures for both the labor market, which as we noted earlier this week signal that as many as 50,000 jobs may have been lost in October (per Goldman estimates) along with a surge in mass layoff notices, and for inflation where a similar analysis shows that CPI will likely print very soft largely as a result of the biggest plunge in rents in 15 years.

In any case, with the government set to reopen (before it partially closes again in January) here is JPMorgan's best estimate of when we can expect various reports over the coming weeks.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 15:40

Bessent: Major U.S. Moves Coming To Cut Coffee And Food Prices

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Americans can expect “substantial announcements” in the coming days aimed at cutting prices on imported products such as coffee, bananas, and other goods not produced in the United States. Speaking on Fox and Friends, he explained that these steps would bring prices down “very quickly” and predicted that “people would start feeling better about the economy in the first half of 2026.”

The comments followed a steep drop in U.S. coffee prices as markets reacted to reports that the government plans to reduce certain import tariffs, according to Reuters.

President Donald Trump recently told Fox News that the administration would lower tariffs on coffee imports, a position he first mentioned during his October trip to Asia. His remarks come as the White House faces voter frustration over the cost of living, which Democrats made a central theme in their recent election victories across New Jersey, New York, and Virginia. Economists have linked continuing inflation in part to the high import tariffs imposed by Trump earlier in his term.

Reuters reports that following those political setbacks, Trump has discussed giving households rebate checks funded by tariffs and has floated the idea of a 50-year mortgage. Bessent said the $2,000 rebate plan, targeted at individuals earning less than $100,000 annually, is “in discussion” but not yet approved. He did not address the long-term mortgage proposal, which has drawn criticism from some conservative lawmakers and business leaders.

When asked about potential tariff cuts for coffee suppliers such as Brazil and Vietnam, Bessent replied, “you’re going to see some specific announcements in coming days in terms of things we don’t grow here in the United States, coffee, coffee being one of them, bananas, other fruits, things like that.” The United States grows limited quantities of bananas in Hawaii and Florida, but most are imported due to cheaper labor and land abroad.

Bessent also pointed to other Trump administration policies expected to support household income, including lower taxes on overtime pay and tips, and efforts to attract foreign investment in domestic manufacturing. “Real wages are going to increase,” he said. “I would expect in the first quarter, second quarter of next year… Americans are going to start feeling better.”

He added that many families will receive larger tax refunds in 2026 thanks to new deductions for car loans and the elimination of taxes on some Social Security benefits. Parents of children born between the end of 2024 and the start of 2029 could receive a $1,000 initial deposit if they open a Trump account for their newborns.

Watch Bessent's full appearance here: 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 15:20

Trump To Strengthen Wall Street Ties With Private Dinner At White House Tonight

President Trump will host a private dinner Wednesday with top Wall Street executives as he looks to strengthen ties with the business community and encourage new investment in U.S. manufacturing, according to CBS News.

Invited guests include JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, Nasdaq’s Adena Friedman, Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman, Morgan Stanley’s Ted Pick, BlackRock’s Larry Fink, and Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon. The dinner follows a similar White House gathering in September with major tech CEOs, part of a broader effort to align corporate leaders behind Trump’s economic agenda.

CBS writes that Trump has pointed to the stock market as evidence of his success, recently telling 60 Minutes, “We’re doing really well, and everybody knows it.” JPMorgan recently pledged $1.5 trillion over the next decade to support “industries critical to national economic security and resiliency.”

His relationship with Dimon has long fluctuated. After calling him a “Highly overrated Globalist” in 2023, Trump later said he had “a lot of respect for Jamie Dimon.” Dimon has criticized Trump’s tariffs as potentially harmful but later said they had been “greatly moderated.”

Trump’s policies have occasionally unsettled business leaders, from steep tariffs and immigration fee hikes to pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Still, many on Wall Street see renewed alignment between the administration’s pro-growth stance and their own priorities. As Dimon told 60 Minutes, “People were angry at whatever they called the state – the ‘swamp.’ Ineffective government. That people wanted kind of more pro-growth and pro-business policies, that they didn't want to be lectured to on social policies continuously.”

President Trump’s relationship with Wall Street this term has been pragmatic and opportunistic. He’s brought top executives into the White House to discuss policy and announce new investments, presenting himself as a pro-business president focused on growth through deregulation, tax breaks, and manufacturing. The outreach has strengthened his ties to the financial sector and underscored his reliance on corporate support to drive economic momentum.

Still, the partnership has its tensions. Bankers and investors back Trump’s pro-growth agenda but remain uneasy about his tariffs, trade volatility, and pressure on the Federal Reserve. Market drops after tariff announcements and disagreements over monetary policy have shown how quickly Wall Street’s confidence can waver.

Even so, many in finance see Trump as a valuable ally. His administration has created a favorable environment for business and markets, and figures like Jamie Dimon and Larry Fink remain key voices in shaping his economic plans.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 14:40

US Sanctions Push Indian Refiners Away From Russian Crude

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

All but two Indian refiners have skipped placing orders for Russian crude for December after the U.S. sanctioned Russia’s top oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, sources with knowledge of the purchases told Bloomberg on Tuesday. 

India’s refiners, which have come to rely on cheap Russian crude in the past three years, have withdrawn from the December purchasing window which typically closes by November 10.   

Five large refiners, including state-owned Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL), and private firms Reliance Industries Ltd and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, have not requested any Russian crude for December. 

Combined, these five firms have imported two-thirds of all Russian crude oil into India year to date, according to Kpler data cited by Bloomberg. 

Only India’s biggest state-held refiner, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), and Nayara Energy, in which Rosneft holds 49%, have purchased crude from Russia for December, per Bloomberg’s sources. 

At the end of October, following the U.S. sanctions on Russia, IOC acquired five December-arriving cargoes of Russian crude from non-sanctioned sellers. 

IOC has bought about 3.5 million barrels of Russia’s ESPO crude at about the same price as the Dubai quotes for delivery at an eastern Indian port in December, a trade sources told Reuters, without naming the sellers of the Russian oil. 

IOC has vowed that it would fully comply with international sanctions related to crude oil imports from Russia.  

IOC is also looking to buy 24 million barrels of crude oil from the Americas in the first quarter of next year to replace lost Russian supply. 

Indian refiners are pivoting away from Russian crude and are buying additional barrels from the Middle East and the Americas to offset what is expected to be a steep decline in Russian loadings in December and January. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 14:20