First Houthi Drones Sent On Israel Since Iran Ceasefire Took Effect

In what appears to be the first Houthi attack out of Yemen since the broader Iran ceasefire came into place starting in early April, the Israel Defense Forces said a drone "launched from the east" was intercepted by the Israeli Air Force near the southernmost city of Eilat on Tuesday.

The IDF further indicated it is believed to have been launched from Yemen, although the IDF is still investigating its origin, according to Israeli media reports. Israel's Channel 12 is citing that at least two drones were sent.

EPA-EFE

However, no sirens sounded, "according to protocol," the military said further. The Iran-allied Houthi rebels had launched several missiles and drones at Israel during the war, in support of the Iranian side.

The Houthis also played a key role during the prior two-year Gaza war, during which time ballistic missiles targeted Israel on a weekly basis, and shipping and in the Red Sea was essentially halted due to the threat of Houthi attacks.

The Shia military group further has demonstrated its ability to reach and disrupt several of Israel's airports, including the key international bub of Ben Gurion airport.

Throughout Trump's Operation Epic Fury and Project Freedom the Houthis have surprisingly stayed relatively quiet and on the sidelines. But they hold a big card in alliance with Iran - the threat of again shuttering vital Red Sea shipping and seriously denting Suez Canal traffic.

In the meantime, the close cooperation between Iran and the Houthis continues to be on display when it comes to weapons manufacturing and transfers:

The Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen continue to use Iranian components in drones, according to a new report. For instance, “external support remains a key factor in the Houthis’ ability to sustain operations,” notes Conflict Armament Research (CAR), which compiled the report.

This is important as it illustrates how the Houthis continue to assemble advanced weapons. Any future conflict with them will need to take this into account. The Houthis burst onto the scene in 2015, moving from the mountains of Yemen and trying to take the port city of Aden.

Going back to the start of the war with the Saudis and Emirates over a decade ago, it was well understood by Western intelligence that the Houthis were able to achieve impressive ballistic missile capabilities due to the close relationship with Tehran.

via Al Jazeera

At various times over the years, vessels bound for Yemen were intercepted by US military ships, and found to be transferring guns, ammo, or missile parts. Iranian parts continue to be frequently found in Houthis weapons systems.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 08:45

US Consumer Prices Are Rising At Their Fastest Pace In 3 Years

Bearing in mind the one-off impact of BLS correcting for shutdown-related distortions (in rent/shelter) from last October., this morning's CPI was expected to come in hot as the impact of the Iran war starts to spread (energy, airfares, transport) and the melt-up in memory costs (unrelated to war) as the token wars continue.

As a reminder, March saw headline CPI in line (energy) while Core CPI actually printed cooler than expected. and we suspect most attention will be on the Core side again today with investors 'looking through' short-term energy-driven cost pressures.

Headline CPI rose 0.6% MoM (as expected), pulling headline up 3.8% YoY (hotter than the 3.7% expected) and the hottest since May 2023...

Source: Bloomberg

Energy and Food costs dominated the rise in headline CPI along with Core Services...

Source: Bloomberg

CPI highlights:

MoM energy rose 3.8% in April, accounting for over forty percent of the monthly all items increase. The shelter index also increased in April, rising 0.6%. The index for food increased 0.5% over the month as the index for food at home rose 0.7% and the index for food away from home increased 0.2%. YoY CPI energy index increased 17.9% for the 12 months ending April. The food index increased 3.2% over the last year.

CPI Food:

• The index for food rose 0.5% in April after being unchanged in March. The food at home index increased 0.7% over the month.
• Five of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased in April. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 1.3 percent over the month as the index for beef rose 2.7 percent.
• The fruits and vegetables index increased 1.8% in April and the nonalcoholic beverages index rose 1.1%.
• The index for dairy and related products increased 0.8% over the month and the index for cereals and bakery products rose 0.1% in April.
• In contrast, the index for other food at home fell 0.4% in April after being unchanged in March.
• The food away from home index rose 0.2% in April.
• The index for limited service meals rose 0.4% over the month and the index for full service meals rose 0.1 percent.

CPI Energy:

• The index for energy increased 3.8% in April, after rising 10.9% in March. The gasoline index increased 5.4% over the month. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices increased 11.1% in April.)
• The index for electricity rose 2.1% in April. The fuel oil index increased 5.8% over the month.
• Conversely, the index for natural gas decreased 0.1% over the same period.

New- and Used-Vehicle prices remain stable as Shelter jumped (as expected)...

On a short-term annualized basis, it's all about Energy...

But, the surge in the Energy subcomponent of CPI is perhaps peaking as oil has stabilized/eased. 

Source: Bloomberg

Core CPI rose more than expected in April (up 0.4% MoM vs +0.3% exp), pulling the YoY rise in prices up by 2.8% (also hotter than expected).

Source: Bloomberg

While that is the highest since Sept 2025, it is clear that whatever impact the war is having, it is not spreading wildly into the broad market... yet.

However, Core Services dominated the price rises (perhaps some energy cost impact pull-through)...

Closer look at Core CPI which rose 0.4% in April, after rising 0.2% in each of the 2 preceding months.

• The shelter index increased 0.6% over the month.

  • The index for owners’ equivalent rent and the index for rent both increased 0.5% in April.

  • The lodging away from home index rose 2.4% over the month.

• The index for household furnishings and operations increased 0.7% over the month, after rising 0.2% in March.

• The airline fares index rose 2.8% in April and the personal care index rose 0.7%.

• The index for apparel rose 0.6% over the month and the index for education rose 0.2% in April.

• The recreation index and the motor vehicle insurance index each increased 0.1% in April.

• The new vehicles index and the communication index each declined 0.2% in April.

• The index for used cars and trucks was unchanged over the month.

• The medical care index decreased 0.1% in April, after falling 0.2% in March.

  • The index for hospital services decreased 0.3 percent over the month.

  • Conversely, the physicians’ services index increased 0.6 percent over the month while the prescription drugs index was unchanged in April.

CPI Core rose 2.8% YoY: the shelter index increased 3.3% over the last year. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include medical care (+2.5 percent), airline fares (+20.7 percent), household furnishings and operations (+3.9 percent), and recreation (+2.3 percent).

Here's the one time CPI adjustment in shelter:

Rent Inflation +0.49% in April after 0.16% in March; biggest monthly increase since Oct 2023; 
Rent inflation +2.79% YoY, up from 2.56% in March and highest since January 2026

Shelter inflation 0.61% in April after 0.40% in March, biggest monthly increase since Jan 2024;
Shelter inflation +3.30% in April, up from 3.02% in March and highest since Oct 2025.

Perhaps most notably, Real Wages are shrinking on a YoY basis (for the first time since April 2023)...

Finally, are we really ready for a 70s-style rebound in inflation?

Bonds may be hinting but stocks certainly are not, even as consumer sentiment hits rock bottom.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 08:39

HIMS Shares Plunge As Pivot To Branded GLP-1s Weighs On Outlook

Hims & Hers shares tumbled in premarket trading in New York, the most in three months, after the company posted a first-quarter loss and revenue that missed analyst estimates tracked by Bloomberg, as costs rose amid a massive pivot from selling copycat GLP-1 drugs toward branded obesity drugs from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.

Revenue for the first quarter came in at $608 million versus the $617.5 million Bloomberg Consensus estimate, while the telehealth firm swung to a loss of 40 cents a share from a 20-cent profit a year earlier. 

HIMS recorded $33.5 million in restructuring charges, including inventory write-downs and transition costs. 

"This was an incredibly valuable transition," HIMS CEO Andrew Dudum told analysts on an earnings call. "We are seeing adoption and weight-loss near-record levels, even beyond the demand we saw following this year's New Year's and Super Bowl campaigns."

Here's a snapshot of the 1Q earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Revenue $608.1 million, +3.8% y/y, estimate $617.5 million (Bloomberg Consensus)

Loss per share 40c vs. EPS 20c y/y

Adjusted Ebitda $44.3 million, -51% y/y, estimate $46.1 million

Gross margin 65% vs. 73% y/y, estimate 71.7%

Total subscribers 2.58 million, +9.2% y/y, estimate 2.58 million

Operating expense $475.1 million, +27% y/y, estimate $446.2 million

HIMS issued a mixed outlook: It raised its full-year revenue outlook to $2.8 billion to $3 billion, while slashing adjusted Ebitda guidance to $275 million to $350 million.

2Q Forecast:

Sees revenue $680 million to $700 million, estimate $644.5 million

Sees adjusted Ebitda $35 million to $55 million, estimate $70.1 million

Full Year Forecast:

Sees adjusted Ebitda $275 million to $350 million, saw $300 million to $375 million, estimate $319.3 million

Sees revenue $2.8 billion to $3.0 billion, estimate $2.75 billion

In premarket trading, HIMS shares fell 15%, the most since early February. The stock is down about 10% on the year, as of Monday's close.

Wall Street analysts described the first quarter as messy:

Citi (neutral/high risk)

• Hims is in a transition phase as it reduces reliance on compounded GLP-1s and refocuses its business on branded products, new offerings and international expansion, says analyst Daniel Grosslight

• While that has led to impressive revenue growth, near-term profitability will likely suffer

• With gross margin under pressure and limited ability to reduce operating expenses, much of the margin uplift must come from expanding monthly GLP-1 subscribers, which introduces incremental risks to financial models

Morgan Stanley (equal-weight)

• While management has an ambitious strategy on prioritizing growth, that will require some patience on margins, says analyst Craig Hettenbach

• On a brighter note, international sales appeared strong

• For more durable gains in the stock, positive Ebitda revisions are likely needed

Keybanc Capital Markets (sector weight)

• Hims' product transitions are creating near-term noise in financials, says analyst Justin Patterson

• Annual guidance suggests that cost headwinds should moderate in 2H, creating potential for revenue re-acceleration with better margins

• Given the historical volatility in the stock, preference is to revisit the equity when new products are showing more traction and margins are starting to improve

Evercore ISI (in-line)

• "At the margin, we are more cautious," says analyst Mark Mahaney

• Suggests investors to wait for a better entry point as Hims transitions to branded GLP-1 products, or proves out either leg of the bull case: international expansion or diversification of products beyond weight loss

• "We believe the right call here on HIMS shares is to stay on the sidelines and remain patient"

HIMS' pivot from copycat GLP-1 drugs to branded therapies follows its new partnership with Novo, which ended months of legal battles between the two companies. Under the agreement, HIMS said it would prioritize FDA-approved obesity drugs.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 07:45

Jet Fuel Shortage Deepens Pressure On Global Airlines

Via City AM,

• Heathrow’s April passenger numbers fell 5% to 6.7 million, with Middle East traffic down 50%.

• Transfer traffic rose 10% as travellers rerouted through Heathrow to Asia and Oceania.

• Airlines are facing mounting pressure from jet fuel shortages and higher oil prices.

Fewer passengers were heading to Heathrow Airport in April as the war in the Middle East keeps travellers grounded.

Passenger numbers at Europe’s biggest airport fell by five per cent in April to 6.7m with the blame being attributed to the “ongoing impact of the Middle East conflict”.

For those heading to that particular region, Heathrow saw a whopping 50 per cent drop in volumes.

Still, in the year-to-date (Jan–Apr) traffic maintained modest growth at 1.2 per cent.

Transfer demand grew ten per cent in April, as travellers rerouted through Heathrow to reach Asia and Oceania, helping offset losses in direct Middle Eastern travel.

Travel to Asia remained a major growth driver, with a 5.6 per cent increase in April and a 10.6 per cent increase year-to-date.

“We know passengers want certainty when planning their hard-earned summer holidays, so we are supporting Government and airlines as they work through their plans to get passengers on their journeys,” Thomas Woldbye, Heathrow’s top boss, said. 

Jet fuel crisis ‘worse’ than Covid

Growing anxieties around the jet fuel shortage caused by the Iran war have rocked the travel industry.

Tony Fernandes, chief executive of Air Asia, said last week: “I thought I’d seen it all with Covid […] but having seen jet fuel go up almost three times — this is much worse.”

It comes after supplies for jet fuel have tumbled to their lowest level since records began, as the war blocks crucial shipping lanes for fuel.

Spirit Airlines – a US-based low-cost airline – last week collapsed under mounting pressure caused by surging oil prices. The firm had failed to secure a $500m lifeline from the Trump administration, leaving it to go out of business and cancel all flights.

Researchers at Allianz Trade warned the UK is among the most “structurally exposed” to jet fuel shortages.

Meanwhile, transport secretary Heidi Alexander has loosened “use it or lose it” rules in a bid to soften the pressures facing airlines.

Woldbye said: “While we have seen some short-term disruption linked to the Middle East conflict, demand for travel remains strong with current fuel supplies stable.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 07:20

My TACO-Tuesday morning train WFH reads:

• The Melt-Up: The Nasdaq 100 now has a higher return over the past 10 years than: Japan in the 1980s, the Dow in the Roaring 20s, the S&P in the 1950s. Still trails the 1990s tech run but it’s close Is this it? Is the melt-up here? How much crazier could it get? (Wealth of Common Sense)

• The Home Office meets the housing crisis: On the UK Home Office’s role in deepening the housing squeeze. The administrative state as housing policy by accident. (Chaminda Jayanetti)

• How AI mania is disguising big companies’ hit from Iran war — in charts: Biggest groups have gained $5.4tn in value since conflict began — but semiconductor sector accounts for most of the gains. The FT shows how AI-driven megacap returns are papering over Iran-war damage in the rest of the market. The headline index is lying to you. (Financial Times)

• The Factory Town Known as China’s Furniture Capital Is Fighting to Survive: A WSJ portrait of one Chinese export town getting flattened by tariffs and weak demand. The supply-chain map is being redrawn in real time. The U.S. lost much of its furniture industry to China years ago. Now, American tariffs and overseas competition are punishing manufacturers. (Wall Street Journal)

• The Slopification of Lunch: The fast-casual bowl as cultural artifact: cheap, beige, and aggressively undifferentiated. Esquire pokes at why lunch got worse. R.I.P. to the golden age of fast-casual dining. What the hell happened? (Esquire)

• The Emergent Self Loop: Kevin Kelly on how recursive systems develop apparent agency. A useful framework for thinking about AI, organisms, and your own habits. (KK)

• The Culture Crutch: How lazy social scientists and commentators use “culture” as a catch-all explanation to avoid the harder analytical work. How lazy social scientists and commentators use the c-word to avoid doing their jobs (Laissez-Faire, Laissez-Passer)

• New Research: Cognitive dissonance helps explain why Trump supporters remain loyal: “The researchers found a positive association between feeling bothered by the news article and expressing disbelief in the allegations. Participants who experienced higher levels of mental discomfort were more likely to claim the accusations were fabricated. This suggests that the denial is not just a calm rejection of information, but rather a direct response to the psychological distress of cognitive dissonance.” (PsyPost) see also Hundreds of Fake Pro-Trump Avatars Emerge on Social Media: The artificial-intelligence-generated fake influencers have surged on TikTok, Instagram, Facebook and YouTube in an apparent bid to hook conservative voters. In the months leading up to the midterm elections, hundreds of A.I.-generated pro-Trump influencer accounts have emerged on social media, featuring avatars posting at a rapid pace about the “radical left” and “America First.” (New York Times)

• Science Has Found Even More Ways Coffee Is Good for You: More positive nutritional findings on the world’s most-consumed psychoactive beverage. Drink up — selectively. A new study shows the mechanisms of how coffee modifies the microbiome, reduces inflammation, and influences mood. Even decaf has its perks. (Wired)

• ‘Tony’ Gives Anthony Bourdain the Anti-Biopic Treatment: The new Bourdain film aims for something stranger than hagiography. Whether it lands is another question. Blackberry director Matt Johnson’s origin-story movie cuts down on the hero factor by showing us the future icon as a Provincetown line cook with a lot to learn. (GQ)

Video of the day: Psychology of “Generation Jones”

Be sure to check out our Master’s in Business interview with Howard Lindzon, known as “The Larry David of Finance.” He is General Partner at the seed fund, Social Leverage, he was one of the first seed investors in Robinhood, which IPOd at $30B in 2021, eToro, Manscaped, and Beehiiv. Previously, he founded Wallstrip, a daily online video show acquired by CBS (2007). He also co-founded Stocktwits, which pioneered the “cashtag.” Recognized by Institutional Investor as a “Super Angel;” his podcast is Panic with Friends.

 

Trump disapproval reaches new high via WashPost-ABC-Ipsos poll

Source: Washington Post

 

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The post 10 Tuesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

UK Summons Chinese Ambassador Over Spying Allegation

Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times,

The British Foreign Ministry on May 9 stated that it had summoned the Chinese ambassador after a London court convicted two men, including a former British immigration officer, of spying for the Chinese communist regime.

Bill Yuen Chung Biu (L) and Peter Wai Chi Leung (R), both charged with assisting Hong Kong intelligence service, arrive separately ahead of their trial at the Old Bailey in central London, on March 2, 2026. Carlos Jasso/AFP via Getty Images

The Chinese ambassador, Zheng Zeguang, was called to the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office on May 8 for an official reprimand, according to a British government statement.

The UK Foreign Office stated that it had made clear that “any attempts by foreign states to intimidate, harass or harm individuals or communities” on British soil will not be tolerated and that such activities constitute “a serious breach of the UK’s sovereignty.”

“We will continue to use the full range of tools available to protect our security and hold China to account for actions which undermine our safety and democratic values,” it stated.

The British government’s move came just a day after a jury found Wai Chi-leung and Yuen Chung-biu guilty under the National Security Act 2023 of assisting a foreign intelligence service, following a weeks-long trial at the Central Criminal Court in London.

Wai was also convicted of misconduct in a public office in relation to misusing the UK Interior Ministry’s systems to track targets while working for the British Border Force at London Heathrow airport. Prosecutors said Wai used his access to the UK government’s databases to conduct unauthorized searches while off duty and improperly shared the personal information obtained.

Helen Flanagan, head of counterterrorism policing in London, which led the investigation into the high-profile case, called the pair’s activists “both sinister and chilling.”

“Our investigation found they were spying for the Hong Kong authorities, targeting UK-based pro-democracy campaigners,” Flanagan said in a May 7 statement following the conviction.

The pair—both dual Chinese and British nationals—were described by local media as the first in UK history to be convicted of spying for Beijing. They face up to 14 years in prison.

The Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office in London on July 21, 2020. Luke Dray/Getty Images

Investigators found that Yuen was in contact with individuals linked to the Hong Kong government while working at the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office (HKETO) in London. He then tasked Wai with conducting spying and surveillance of Hong Kong pro-democracy activists living in Britain.

Messages on Yuen’s phone indicated that their surveillance of Nathan Law, a former Hong Kong lawmaker and a prominent pro-democracy advocate, had begun as early as 2021, according to prosecutors.

The Chinese Embassy in the UK confirmed its ambassador met with a British Foreign Office official on May 8. According to a Chinese summary of the meeting, Zheng protested the London court’s ruling and called on the UK side to stop what he called “anti-China political manipulation.”

The case has cast a renewed spotlight on HKETO, a Hong Kong government overseas outpost that was designed to promote trade relations between the UK and the Asian financial hub. Critics have long argued that its resources and privileges were used for intelligence gathering and targeting overseas Hong Kong activists.

In response to the May 7 ruling, the London-based Hong Kong Labor Rights Monitor called on the UK government to urgently review the status and privileges granted to HKETO, including whether its current diplomatic privileges remain appropriate.

“We cannot allow the Hong Kong authorities to disguise political repression as trade promotion, nor permit authoritarian ‘long-arm repression’ to extend into free societies,” the group said in a May 7 statement.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 05:00

Media Spreads Hantavirus Hysteria In Attempt To Save Disgraced WHO

The establishment media has been drumming up fear after a recent outbreak of Hantavirus on a cruise liner traveling from Argentina to West Africa.  The Guardian has used the opportunity to assert that the US is currently ill equipped to deal with future pandemic threats, largely because of Donald Trump (of course) and the dramatic US exit from the now disgraced World Health Organization. 

Is Hantavirus a serious danger to the world, or, is it another hyped up virus like Covid being used to trigger public hysteria?  And if it is being hyped, who (or WHO) stands to benefit? 

For decades the WHO constructed its image as a global angel of benevolence; the primary line of defense against what they said was the inevitable invasion of a population rending plague.  However, when the time finally came in the form of a mutated Coronavirus (Covid), they dropped the ball, and evidence suggests they may have done it deliberately.

During the initial outbreak in China, the WHO echoed CCP propaganda suggesting that human-to-human contact was unlikely and, knowingly or unknowingly, aided China in hiding details behind the outbreak.  Details surrounding the involvement of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the largest dangerous disease lab in Asia, were actively dismissed (or suppressed).  Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus even praised China's "transparency". 

The WHO then set up a joint task force to determine the origins of Covid, only to let the Chinese dominate the investigation and lead it away from the activities at the Level 4 lab in Wuhan.  The Chinese wanted to push the theory of animal-to-animal mutation instead of the gain of function research that was ongoing at the lab (partially funded by US interests in the Obama Administration). 

Today, evidence overwhelmingly suggests that Covid originated in the Wuhan Lab.  In January 2025, the CIA assessed that a lab-related origin is more likely than natural spillover.  This determination matched with similar FBI assessments. 

In 2025, German Intelligence also reported their findings, indicating a 90% likelihood that Covid was engineered and originated at the Wuhan Lab in China.   

Of course, anyone who made this claim online during the pandemic response was called a dangerous "conspiracy theorist" and was deplatformed (much like Zero Hedge).

The WHO would go on to exaggerate the death rate of the virus, claiming an initial Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of 3.4%.  This data was based on studies which ignored mild cases as well as asymptomatic cases, thus artificially pumping up the death rate.    

Dozens of studies as early as May 2020 showed that the median Infection Fatality Rate (a more accurate number) was only 0.27% (later adjusted to 0.23%).  The WHO continued to spread disinformation and hysteria surrounding covid while ignoring the true IFR data.  That is to say, all the lockdowns, the mandates, the social media censorship, the arrests, the push for vaccine passports, etc. - all of it was over a virus that 99.8% of the population would easily survive. 

The WHO has been exposed as a perpetrator of pandemic disinformation and is no longer trusted by the public.  The US under the Trump Administration has exited the organization on these grounds, and as a result the WHO has lost at least 20% of its total funding.  It is now facing dire financial conditions.  In response, the UN and the establishment media have been running a spin campaign to present the WHO as indispensable.  

It is therefore not surprising that the WHO and the media are suddenly jumping on the cruise line Hantavirus story as if it is significant, while at the same time arguing that Trump is putting the public at risk by not participating in the WHO's antics.  They need the money badly, and so they've decided to remind the public why we should be afraid. 

For those who are unaware, Hantavirus is a common virus around the world and in the US.  Estimates show around 100,000 cases of the disease occur annually.  In 2023, there were 40 cases in the US.  The virus is most often contracted when humans are exposed to dried rodent feces and urine, floating as particulates in the air which are then inhaled into the lungs. 

The spread from human to human is rare and only occurs with the South American strain.  Contraction is difficult, with the virus passing from one person to another through "prolonged contact with bodily fluids".  It makes you wonder what kind of pleasure cruise these people were on when the most recent outbreak started?  The point is, the story is being inflated from a normal event into a crisis event.  

This is probably why the Spanish Government set up an elaborate bus transfer of supposedly highly infectious cruise passengers, only to drop off a psychiatrist with the Ministry of Health down the road without protective gear like he's going home after school. 

Las imágenes que está dejando toda la "Operación Hantavirus" son de película de Berlanga.

Contagiados quitándose la mascarilla, personal bajando de los autobuses con el EPI en la mano, otros que ni lo llevan puesto, etc.

Menudo cachondeo.pic.twitter.com/bYo01wA2RN pic.twitter.com/kiBnBAiBp0

— Elyon (@ElyonMan) May 10, 2026

The bottom line?  Hantavirus is all over the world and it's not a threat to the vast majority of people.  The artificial media panic and the opportunism of the WHO may be an effort to test the waters for another fraudulent pandemic scare, but the majority of the propaganda seems to be aimed at restoring the WHO's reputation and saving it from financial ruin.       

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 04:15

Ideological Insanity Has Gotten Way Way Worse In The UK...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A major exam board has now signed off on gender-neutral language in GCSE French, Spanish and German exams – despite the terms being completely alien to how those languages are actually spoken in their home countries.

The move, buried in new specifications for 2026 exams, hands students the green light to ditch standard masculine and feminine forms in favour of made-up “inclusive” pronouns, nouns and adjectives.

Yes, you read that right. They’re letting students make up their own parts of foreign languages in exams.

'Absurd!' British exam board allows GCSE French students to use gender-neutral language despite terms not being used in Francehttps://t.co/IjXsL9J8ZK

— GB News (@GBNEWS) May 10, 2026

Staff at Pearson Edexcel have explicitly permitted teens to use “inclusive” pronouns, nouns and adjectives in both written and oral GCSEs. Yet as the article linked above makes clear, “the French do not pander to the same bid for inclusivity, with all their grammatical concepts being strictly categorised into gendered variants.”

Adjectives must match the noun in masculine or feminine endings. Gender-neutral terms simply do not exist in grammatically correct French or Spanish.

French, by its very nature, is a gendered language. Words are denoted as being "le" or "la," depending on whether they are masculine or feminine. This is silly and culturally ignorant. https://t.co/pj2TmzTdGQ

— Alex (@Admalez) May 9, 2026

Former French education minister Jean-Michel Blanquer blasted the move as “absurd”. He stated: “French grammar has not changed in this regard. And the use of ‘iel’ does not correspond to any widespread usage among the French population.”

Some French universities and socialist councils have tried pushing “iel” and “iels” as neutral replacements for “il” and “elle”, but Blanquer made it clear this is not mainstream French. The exam board’s decision flies in the face of actual language as used by native speakers.

The new specs include a dedicated section on “gendered language”, backed by the usual LGBT activists at Stonewall. Pearson claims gendered language “can present specific challenges for trans and non-binary students”. As a result, they’ve added vocabulary for “trans” and “non-binary” to the list and vowed to “recognise students’ use of non-binary or gender-neutral pronouns when describing themselves or others” in exams.

Absolute insanity. When these people go out into the real world, only then will they discover that no one has a clue what it is they’re saying.

Students can even deploy new adjectival endings “according to their preferred way of identifying”, along with special spellings using full stops, “x’s”, asterisks and underscores. This isn’t teaching French – it’s turning language exams into an identity politics playground.

The move comes just weeks after the government’s new trans guidance for schools, a framework that openly allows primary school children – some as young as four – to socially transition at school, complete with different pronouns, as long as teachers show “caution” and consult parents.

What started with pronoun policies in the classroom has now leaked into the actual curriculum and assessment system.

Director of Advocacy at Sex Matters, Helen Joyce, nailed the bigger picture, noting “It may seem baffling how quickly schools have been captured by gender ideology in recent years.” Joyce pointed to Stonewall-linked external providers pushing a “pro-trans agenda” and warned: “The next challenge for the Department for Education will be to tackle the pernicious creep of gender ideology throughout the curriculum, and the role of external providers in driving this.”

Pearson tried to walk it back in a statement, insisting: “Gender-neutral pronouns are not required as part of Pearson Edexcel GCSE French, German, or Spanish. The specifications require students to learn and be assessed only on the standard masculine and feminine forms used in these languages.” They added that the vocabulary list reflects “everyday life, including references to men and women, him and her, boys and girls, mothers and fathers,” and claimed their Stonewall membership ended over two years ago.

The Department for Education itself sounded a note of caution, stating: “Our expectations are clear: gender identity is an area of significant debate. Schools should not endorse any particular view or teach it as fact – including the idea that all people have a gender identity.”

Yet the guidance still permits the very practices critics say undermine real education. Allowing fantasy spellings and pronouns in a French GCSE doesn’t prepare kids for the real world – it prepares them for ideological conformity. French speakers in France won’t understand “iel” any more than they’ll understand a British teen demanding to be called “they” in Paris.

 

This is the inevitable next step after the trans guidance fiasco. Once you accept that feelings trump biology in the classroom, it was only a matter of time before the same logic infected subjects like languages, history and science. Stonewall’s influence may be officially over at Pearson, but the damage lingers in the specs they helped shape.

Parents and common-sense voices have every right to be furious. Education should teach facts, grammar and reality – not indulge every passing social trend. The UK already lags behind in basic skills; turning GCSEs into optional pronoun workshops only accelerates the decline.

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Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 03:30

Merz Promises Fico A Spanking For Slovak Leader's Moscow V-Day Trip

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico was once again this year the only EU leader to visit Moscow for Russia's Victory Day commemorative WW2 celebrations on Saturday, which has drawn a predictable and fierce rebuke from Germany and European officials.

This was the second time Fico attended V-Day celebrations, after a similar controversial visit last year. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in particular chastised Fico with scolding words, as if Fico was being called to the principal's office. "We will talk with him about this day in Moscow today," he said. "We are celebrating Europe Day here in Stockholm today. And this is something completely different."

picture alliance/Getty Images

One apt and hilariously sarcastic headline said that "Merz promised Fico a spanking for a trip to Moscow on May 9."

Merz also said he "deeply regretted" Fico's trip while asserting it did not reflect the EU's "common view". Fico has not only been intensely skeptical of European aid to Ukraine, but Slovakia has also remained heavily dependent on Russian energy.

As for President Putin, he received Fico and said: "I know there were some difficulties with your trip to Moscow. But the important thing is that you're here." These 'difficulties' included several European states having refused to let let the Slovak leader's plane use their airspace on his way to Moscow.

"We welcome the gradual resumption of bilateral cooperation, which had effectively been put on hold by the previous Slovak authorities," said Putin. "We will do everything we can to meet the Slovak Republic’s energy needs."

Still, Fico didn't attend the full array of V-Day events. He met with Putin, but skipped the main military parade events at Red Square, and instead solemnly laid flowers on Friday at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, which is Russia's central memorial to millions of Soviet soldiers who died fighting against Nazi Germany.

Fico deflected ongoing EU criticism, saying his visit was "a manifestation of respect for the victims of the Second World War" and that he and Putin must necessarily discuss "fundamental questions" of bilateral relations.

"I am opposed to creating any kind of new Iron Curtain between Europe, the European Union, and the Russian Federation," Fico said. "I support normal, standard, friendly, and mutually beneficial relations."

But one irony is that Slovakia has been a member of the NATO alliance since 2004, and in President Putin's keynote V-Day speech, he again blasted NATO expansion and its role in Ukraine.

Brussels Pressure Failed, Slovakia’s PM Robert Fico Arrives To Meet Putin pic.twitter.com/7yroI79VJr

— RT_India (@RT_India_news) May 9, 2026

"The great feat of the generation of victors inspires the soldiers carrying out the goals of the special military operation today," Putin had declared. "They are confronting an aggressive force armed and supported by the entire NATO bloc. And despite this, our heroes move forward," he said. "I firmly believe that our cause is just," he later emphasized.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 02:45

Europe Fails To React To Ukrainian Drone Incidents

Authored by Lucas Leiroz de Almeida via Global Research,

Recent drone incidents in European countries, especially in the Baltic states, are generating controversy among those who support the war with Russia. Some argue that Ukraine is merely defending itself against “Russian aggression,” with these “accidental” occurrences being an inevitable side effect of hostilities. Others believe that Kiev should act more cautiously to avoid harming partner countries. Meanwhile, drones continue to crash in Europe without a definitive solution being presented for this issue.

Recently, a kamikaze drone launched by Ukraine struck a fuel storage tank in Latvia. At the time of the incident, the tank was empty, which prevented a major tragedy. Had the drone hit a full tank, the result would have been a large explosion, followed by a massive fire, generating serious economic and environmental damage – as has happened in several recent cases in Russian border regions, with drones hitting energy facilities and causing serious fires.

Obviously, the expected attitude of any country hit by a foreign drone – even from an allied country – is at least to condemn the action and demand financial compensation for the damage caused. But apparently, this is not the Latvian stance regarding Ukrainian drones falling in the country. Recently, Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds stated that Kiev should not be held responsible for these incidents. According to him, these are merely accidental collateral damages, with the real blame for the occurrence lying with Russia – which he believes “started the war”.

Spruds stated that “Ukraine has every right to defend itself,” admitting that even incidents affecting Latvian territory should be tolerated, since Kiev is only acting in “legitimate self-defense.”

In practice, he prioritized the supposed Ukrainian “right” to attack Russia over the national security of Latvian territory and people.

Not only that, the Latvian government also summoned Russian diplomats and demanded explanations about the case.

Even though the drones are known to be of Ukrainian origin, the Latvian government maintains a firm stance of holding Russia responsible for any event related to the conflict.

Furthermore, Moscow has also presented reports to the Latvian side showing that drones have crashed in the country due to failed Ukrainian attempts to attack the St. Petersburg region, but the Latvian government ignores these circumstances and simply blames Moscow.

Unfortunately, this attitude is not unique to the defense sector. Tolerance towards incidents involving Ukrainian drones is also widely endorsed by the country’s government and parliament, with most local politicians and bureaucrats being mere representatives of European elites interested in spreading Russophobia and pro-war sentiments. Commenting on the case, Latvian PM Evika Silina herself stated that, regardless of the origin of the drones that hit the country, it is always necessary to blame Russia – which she considers the “actual culprit”.

“It doesn’t matter whose drones hit the oil depot in Latvia, the main thing is to remember Russia’s responsibility for it. Russia is the aggressor,” she said.

It is important to remember that the incident at the fuel depot was just one in a recent wave of frustrated Ukrainian attacks resulting in drone crashes in Europe. Previously, on March 23, Ukrainian drones exploded near Lake Lavysas in Lithuania; two days later, in Latvia itself, drones crashed in the Kraslava region, and on the same day a similar incident occurred at the Auvere Power Plant in Estonia. On March 29, the city of Kouvola in Finland was hit by Ukrainian drones. Furthermore, several other related incidents have been reported in different countries in recent months.

In none of these cases was there an effective European response to the crimes committed by Ukraine. Justifying these occurrences with the unfounded narrative of “self-defense,” European countries are tolerating threats to their own territories and abdicating their right to demand reparations from the Ukrainian regime.

In practice, this only strengthens Ukraine’s position and gives even more freedom to the local military to act irresponsibly, launching swarms of drones indiscriminately, aware that some of them will likely fall on civilian areas of allied countries – but simply not caring, since these countries will ultimately blame Russia.

At some point, these Ukrainian drones will begin to cause more serious damage than merely destroying empty depots. If the incidents do not cease, there will inevitably be deaths in Europe in the near future. And then it will not be enough for local governments to say “it’s Russia’s fault,” because the victims’ relatives, knowing that the drones are Ukrainian, will demand more concrete answers and harsh measures against those responsible. As a result, the support given by these countries to Ukraine will become even more unpopular, generating an internal legitimacy crisis.

To prevent the worst-case scenario, the best thing Europeans can do now is to openly condemn Kiev and demand financial reparations for the damage caused.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 02:00

What Decades Of Academic Literature, Military Doctrine Says About Effectiveness Of 'Decapitation Strikes'

Authored by José Niño via The Libertarian Institute

The United States has long operated under a seductive strategic fantasy. Remove the leader of an adversary organization, whether a drug cartel, a terrorist group, or a sovereign state, and that organization will collapse, enabling American interests to fill the resulting vacuum.

However, decades of academic literature, hard empirical data from Mexico’s drug war, and the lived consequences of America’s post 9/11 targeted killing campaigns all tell a damning story many in the DC ruling class refuse to acknowledge. Decapitation strategies are, at best, tactically satisfying and strategically hollow. At worst, they escalate violence, radicalize successors, and produce precisely the instability they were designed to prevent. The ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran represents the most ambitious test of this doctrine in history. The results so far are deeply troubling.

US Navy/Reuters

The poor results should come as no surprise to anyone familiar with the academic literature on leadership targeting. The scholarly consensus against decapitation has been building for decades. Jenna Jordan’s landmark research, first published in Security Studies in 2009 and later expanded into her book Leadership Decapitation, examined 298 incidents of leadership targeting from 1945 through 2004. She concluded that “decapitation is not an effective counterterrorism strategy” and that it tends to extend the life of terrorist organizations.

Jordan identifies three structural factors that make organizations resilient to leadership decapitation: bureaucratic depth, popular support, and ideological coherence. The more institutionalized and ideologically rooted an organization is, the more it absorbs the loss of leaders. Martyrdom replaces individuals with myth.

Through analysis of over 1,000 decapitation events against 180 terrorist groups, Jordan found that decapitation “does not increase the mortality rate of terrorist groups and, in some cases, even leads to more terrorist activity,” as War on the Rocks reported. The University of Pretoria’s Emmanuel Ofuasia confirmed that "the decapitation tactic has served as a basis for escalation and proliferation of terrorist groups rather than serving as deterrence against the possibility of recurrence."

The fixation with decapitation strategies is part and parcel of the DC mindset, which puts regime change on a pedestal—consequences be damned. Alexander Downes of George Washington University, whose book Catastrophic Success surveys roughly 90 instances of foreign-imposed regime change, finds that more than 40% of states that experience foreign-imposed regime change have a civil war within the next ten years. Ben Denison of the Cato Institute concurs that “even after high-profile failures in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, some in the policy community still call for ousting illiberal regimes,” and the empirical record “clearly reveals that a regime-change operation is more likely to fail than to succeed.”

The academic literature is damning enough, but the real-world laboratory of Mexico’s drug war offers even starker evidence of decapitation’s failure. By January 2011, Mexican authorities had captured or killed 20 of their 37 priority cartel targets. Violence did not recede. More than 66,000 drug-related deaths occurred in Mexico between 2007 and 2012.

The landmark 2015 study in the Journal of Conflict Resolution—by Calderón, Robles, Díaz-Cayeros, and Magaloni—found that “captures or killings of drug cartel leaders have exacerbating effects not only on DTO-related violence, but also on homicides that affect the general population.”

The mechanisms are clear: “When drug capos are eliminated, other cartels possess incentives to fight turf wars…Moreover, as the elimination of drug capos weakens existing chains of command, criminal cells begin operating with less restraint.”

The lessons from Mexico have gone unheeded. Today, the same flawed logic drives American policy toward Iran, where prominent voices in the foreign policy establishment have begun sounding the alarm. Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies has been the most prominent institutional voice of skepticism about the Iran campaign.

In March 2026, he wrote that “Killing Iran’s top leaders may feel like a decisive blow, but history shows that decapitation rarely produces the political outcomes the United States hopes for, and often exacerbates instability.” He points to Israel’s repeated targeting of Hamas leaders since 1987 as definitive refutation. Instead of changing political direction, Hamas simply “absorbed its martyrs and lives to fight another day.”

Iran is not a hollow dictatorship held together by one man’s terror. It is an institutionalized revolutionary state that has operated under sanctions, sabotage, covert operations, and assassination campaigns for decades. Its architecture was consciously engineered for continuity under stress.

As Al Jazeera’s analysis notes, “Iran is not a single pyramid with one man at the apex. It is a heterarchical, networked state: Overlapping hubs of power around the Supreme Leader’s office, the Revolutionary Guards, intelligence organs, clerical gatekeepers, and a patronage economy. In such a system, removing one node, even the most symbolic one, does not reliably collapse the structure; redundancy and substitute chains of command are a design feature.”

The evidence is overwhelming, yet Washington refuses to learn. Decapitation strategies represent a cartoon, video game style approach to foreign policy, rooted in the fantasy that eliminating a single leader will cause an entire regime to crumble. DC desperately needs a wakeup call.

The United States cannot kill its way to a more favorable world order. America must abandon the interventionist impulse and embrace strategic retrenchment and accept the harsh realities that not all countries want to be remade in Washington’s image. Restraint, not assassination nor quixotic regime change ventures, is the foundation of a sustainable grand strategy.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 23:25

India Rejects Russian LNG Under Sanctions

India rejected Russia’s offer ​to sell it liquefied natural gas subject to US sanctions, despite a huge shortfall driven by Middle East tensions, leaving a tanker bound for India in limbo as talks continue on permitted cargoes, Reuters reports.

The stance highlights the fine balance the world’s third-biggest oil importer and consumer is seeking to strike between securing energy supplies and avoiding LNG cargoes on which the U.S. has ​placed sanctions, which are harder to disguise and carry greater compliance risk. It also underscores the limits of Moscow’s ability ​to pivot its LNG exports to new markets.

India's reluctance has left an LNG cargo from Russia's U.S.-sanctioned Portovaya ⁠plant in the Baltic Sea unable to discharge, despite indicating India as its destination in mid-April, one of the sources said. The ​vessel was tracked despite documentation suggesting the cargo was non-Russian, the source added.

Reuters had reported in mid-April, citing LSEG shipping data, that the ​138,200-cubic-metre tanker Kunpeng was heading to the Dahej LNG import terminal in western India. The vessel is now near Singaporean waters with no destination broadcast, according to LSEG.

India, the biggest buyer of Russian seaborne crude, conveyed its decision not to buy LNG that was under sanction to Russia’s Deputy Energy Minister Pavel ​Sorokin during his April 30 visit, when he met Indian officials including Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, one of ​the sources said. It was their second meeting in as many months, and Sorokin could return in June for further talks, said the source.

India’s purchases of Russian crude have meanwhile continued unabated, aided by a temporary waiver of U.S. sanctions introduced to help countries cope with an energy crisis resulting from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which began on February 28.

Arctic LNG 2 is Russia's other export plant subject to U.S. sanctions. Washington stepped ​up sanctions on the LNG ​plants in early 2025 over ⁠Russia's war on Ukraine.  

While crude oil cargoes can be hidden through ship-to-ship transfers at sea, LNG shipments are far harder to conceal from satellite tracking. 

While India is open to buying authorised ​Russian LNG, most of those volumes are committed to Europe, Reuters notes. Meanwhile, China remains ⁠a major buyer of both sanctioned and unsanctioned Russian LNG. Moscow is also seeking long-term deals to supply India with LNG and fertilizers such as potash, phosphorus and urea, the source added.

Before the Iran conflict disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, India was meeting half of its ⁠gas consumption ​through imports, about 60% of which had come through the waterway. More than ​half of its crude supplies came the same way.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday urged people to conserve fuel and foreign exchange by working from home, limiting foreign ​travel and reducing imports of gold and edible oil.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 21:45

Iran Executes Top Young Aerospace Scientist, Alleging CIA & Mossad Ties

Iran has executed 29-year-old aerospace engineer Erfan Shakourzadeh on Monday on espionage charges despite his protestations that authorities tortured him into giving a false confession, according to a prison note published before his execution, as recounted in Western press reports.

Iranian judiciary's Mizan Online website announced and confirmed the execution, describing that he was hanged after being convicted for allegedly collaborating with the CIA and Israel's Mossad intelligence service.

Various human rights organizations have rejected the validity of the charges, and have decried his execution, having for weeks raised the alarm that he was on death row.

Shakourzadeh studied electrical engineering at the University of Tabriz before graduating top of his class in the master's program in Aerospace Engineering and Satellite Technology at Iran University of Science and Technology.

He was a leading young specialist in the field and worked at a scientific organization focused on satellite technology before intelligence agents from the elite IRGC arrested him in February 2025. So the case predates the current war, but is highly significant amid the US pressure campaign.

State Mizan agency went on to allege that Shakourzadeh was "a joint CIA and Mossad spy," stating that he had been recruited "as a project and due to his expertise."

CBS has said he's the latest death in a growing list of espionage cases:

He is the fifth person to be executed on espionage charges since the beginning of the war in late February.

Authorities have also since then executed 13 men charged over January protests, one more over 2022 demonstrations and 10 accused of links to banned opposition groups, according to IHR.

President Trump had weeks ago personally highlighted that eight women protesters were also set to be executed, but that he intervened with Iranian officials and threatened more military action, effectively stopping it.

However, Trump's claims have been largely debunked. It has been confirmed that at least one among the eight is real and is likely in prison, but other details concerning the group of women have not been established or else outright disproven.

Iran executed Erfan Shakourzadeh, a 29-year-old aerospace engineering master's student at Iran University of Science and Technology who worked on satellite projects.

He was convicted of espionage for the CIA and Mossad, accused of sharing classified satellite data, employee… pic.twitter.com/q1C1kFHl0g

— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 11, 2026

But it does remain clear that Iran has been busy hunting down alleged collaborators, also after Mossad and Israeli officials have time and again openly boasted that they are working with individuals and networks on the ground inside Iran.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 19:40

Iran Executes Top Young Aerospace Scientist, Alleging CIA & Mossad Ties

Iran has executed 29-year-old aerospace engineer Erfan Shakourzadeh on Monday on espionage charges despite his protestations that authorities tortured him into giving a false confession, according to a prison note published before his execution, as recounted in Western press reports.

Iranian judiciary's Mizan Online website announced and confirmed the execution, describing that he was hanged after being convicted for allegedly collaborating with the CIA and Israel's Mossad intelligence service.

Various human rights organizations have rejected the validity of the charges, and have decried his execution, having for weeks raised the alarm that he was on death row.

Shakourzadeh studied electrical engineering at the University of Tabriz before graduating top of his class in the master's program in Aerospace Engineering and Satellite Technology at Iran University of Science and Technology.

He was a leading young specialist in the field and worked at a scientific organization focused on satellite technology before intelligence agents from the elite IRGC arrested him in February 2025. So the case predates the current war, but is highly significant amid the US pressure campaign.

State Mizan agency went on to allege that Shakourzadeh was "a joint CIA and Mossad spy," stating that he had been recruited "as a project and due to his expertise."

CBS has said he's the latest death in a growing list of espionage cases:

He is the fifth person to be executed on espionage charges since the beginning of the war in late February.

Authorities have also since then executed 13 men charged over January protests, one more over 2022 demonstrations and 10 accused of links to banned opposition groups, according to IHR.

President Trump had weeks ago personally highlighted that eight women protesters were also set to be executed, but that he intervened with Iranian officials and threatened more military action, effectively stopping it.

However, Trump's claims have been largely debunked. It has been confirmed that at least one among the eight is real and is likely in prison, but other details concerning the group of women have not been established or else outright disproven.

Iran executed Erfan Shakourzadeh, a 29-year-old aerospace engineering master's student at Iran University of Science and Technology who worked on satellite projects.

He was convicted of espionage for the CIA and Mossad, accused of sharing classified satellite data, employee… pic.twitter.com/q1C1kFHl0g

— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 11, 2026

But it does remain clear that Iran has been busy hunting down alleged collaborators, also after Mossad and Israeli officials have time and again openly boasted that they are working with individuals and networks on the ground inside Iran.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 19:40

China's Car Sales Slump As Gasoline Demand Craters

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

Chinese car sales in China fell by 21.5% in April, driven by lower demand for gasoline-powered vehicles amid higher fuel prices. EV demand failed to offset the drop in internal combustion engine vehicle sales, as well.

According to Bloomberg data, total car sales in China last month hit 1.4 million. This was the lowest since 2022, when China was still in the grip of Covid lockdowns. Internal combustion engine car sales suffered a decline of over 30%, while EV and hybrid car sales fell by a more modest 6.8%. EV sales suffered as a result of a rollback of subsidies and the reintroduction of a tax on what China calls new energy vehicles.

As a result of the slump in gasoline car sales, new energy vehicles came to account for 60% of new car sales last month. This is the highest monthly portion of EVs and hybrids of total new car sales.

In addition to the fuel prices, subsidy removal, and the return of taxes on EVs, China’s car sales declined as a result of weaker purchasing power - another consequence of the war in the Middle East.

The energy crisis has slowed down China’s economic growth, prompting job cuts and lower wages, which have in turn affected consumers’ spending appetite, Bloomberg noted in its report.

China has the world’s largest crude oil stockpiles, estimated at between 1 billion barrels and up to 1.3 billion barrels. This provides the country with quite solid insulation against supply shocks - even though it has not prevented retail fuel prices from moving higher.

Thanks to this reserve cushion and its diversification policies, despite being the top crude importer in the world, China is less exposed to the Hormuz crisis than many other buyers in Asia, including India and the developed economies of Japan and South Korea. India relies on the Middle East for about 60% of its crude supply, while Japan’s dependence is a massive 90%.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 19:15

China's Car Sales Slump As Gasoline Demand Craters

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

Chinese car sales in China fell by 21.5% in April, driven by lower demand for gasoline-powered vehicles amid higher fuel prices. EV demand failed to offset the drop in internal combustion engine vehicle sales, as well.

According to Bloomberg data, total car sales in China last month hit 1.4 million. This was the lowest since 2022, when China was still in the grip of Covid lockdowns. Internal combustion engine car sales suffered a decline of over 30%, while EV and hybrid car sales fell by a more modest 6.8%. EV sales suffered as a result of a rollback of subsidies and the reintroduction of a tax on what China calls new energy vehicles.

As a result of the slump in gasoline car sales, new energy vehicles came to account for 60% of new car sales last month. This is the highest monthly portion of EVs and hybrids of total new car sales.

In addition to the fuel prices, subsidy removal, and the return of taxes on EVs, China’s car sales declined as a result of weaker purchasing power - another consequence of the war in the Middle East.

The energy crisis has slowed down China’s economic growth, prompting job cuts and lower wages, which have in turn affected consumers’ spending appetite, Bloomberg noted in its report.

China has the world’s largest crude oil stockpiles, estimated at between 1 billion barrels and up to 1.3 billion barrels. This provides the country with quite solid insulation against supply shocks - even though it has not prevented retail fuel prices from moving higher.

Thanks to this reserve cushion and its diversification policies, despite being the top crude importer in the world, China is less exposed to the Hormuz crisis than many other buyers in Asia, including India and the developed economies of Japan and South Korea. India relies on the Middle East for about 60% of its crude supply, while Japan’s dependence is a massive 90%.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 19:15

Trump Floats Making Venezuela The 51st State

First Canada, then Greenland… and now Venezuela?

President Donald Trump said Monday he is seriously considering annexing the South American nation as the 51st U.S. state, citing the country’s vast oil reserves and what he described as strong local support for his leadership.

In a telephone interview with Fox News anchor John Roberts, Trump mused that he is weighing the move for a nation that holds an estimated $40 trillion in oil resources.

NEW: President Trump tells @FoxNews colleague @johnrobertsFox in a phone call just now that he is “seriously considering making Venezuela the 51st US state”, adding that there is $40 trillion in oil there and “Venezuela loves Trump”.

— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) May 11, 2026

“Venezuela loves Trump,” the president told the reporter.

The suggestion comes months after U.S. forces conducted a military operation in Venezuela in January that resulted in the capture of longtime President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The couple was extradited to the U.S. to face narco-terrorism and weapons charges, effectively ending more than a decade of socialist rule that had transformed one of Latin America’s richest economies into an economic disaster marked by hyperinflation, mass emigration and the breakdown of public services.

Rather than installing opposition figure María Corina Machado, a Nobel Peace Prize recipient, as the new leader, the Trump administration supported the installation of Delcy Rodríguez—Maduro’s former vice president—as interim president. Trump has described the arrangement as “spectacular” and predicted a rapid economic turnaround.

Rodríguez’s government has moved swiftly on economic reforms. Within weeks of taking power, it enacted legislation opening the oil sector to privatization, dismantling core elements of the Chavista model that had dominated for more than two decades.

Meanwhile, commercial activity has accelerated thanks to Chevron, which signed two agreements expanding its participation in a joint venture with state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela SA in the Orinoco Oil Belt, Reuters reported at the time.

Venezuelan oil output is already rising.

PDVSA reported production of 1.095 million barrels a day last month, up 75,000 barrels a day from February, with Oil Minister Paula Henao setting a target of 1.3 million barrels a day by year-end.
Trump administration officials have been candid about the financial stakes.

A White House spokesman called the first $500 million portion of an approximately $2 billion oil-supply agreement a “historic energy deal,” CBS News reported at the time. Trump has said the U.S. would rebuild Venezuela “in a very profitable way,” adding, “We’re going to be using oil, and we’re going to be taking oil.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 18:50

Trump Floats Making Venezuela The 51st State

First Canada, then Greenland… and now Venezuela?

President Donald Trump said Monday he is seriously considering annexing the South American nation as the 51st U.S. state, citing the country’s vast oil reserves and what he described as strong local support for his leadership.

In a telephone interview with Fox News anchor John Roberts, Trump mused that he is weighing the move for a nation that holds an estimated $40 trillion in oil resources.

NEW: President Trump tells @FoxNews colleague @johnrobertsFox in a phone call just now that he is “seriously considering making Venezuela the 51st US state”, adding that there is $40 trillion in oil there and “Venezuela loves Trump”.

— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) May 11, 2026

“Venezuela loves Trump,” the president told the reporter.

The suggestion comes months after U.S. forces conducted a military operation in Venezuela in January that resulted in the capture of longtime President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The couple was extradited to the U.S. to face narco-terrorism and weapons charges, effectively ending more than a decade of socialist rule that had transformed one of Latin America’s richest economies into an economic disaster marked by hyperinflation, mass emigration and the breakdown of public services.

Rather than installing opposition figure María Corina Machado, a Nobel Peace Prize recipient, as the new leader, the Trump administration supported the installation of Delcy Rodríguez—Maduro’s former vice president—as interim president. Trump has described the arrangement as “spectacular” and predicted a rapid economic turnaround.

Rodríguez’s government has moved swiftly on economic reforms. Within weeks of taking power, it enacted legislation opening the oil sector to privatization, dismantling core elements of the Chavista model that had dominated for more than two decades.

Meanwhile, commercial activity has accelerated thanks to Chevron, which signed two agreements expanding its participation in a joint venture with state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela SA in the Orinoco Oil Belt, Reuters reported at the time.

Venezuelan oil output is already rising.

PDVSA reported production of 1.095 million barrels a day last month, up 75,000 barrels a day from February, with Oil Minister Paula Henao setting a target of 1.3 million barrels a day by year-end.
Trump administration officials have been candid about the financial stakes.

A White House spokesman called the first $500 million portion of an approximately $2 billion oil-supply agreement a “historic energy deal,” CBS News reported at the time. Trump has said the U.S. would rebuild Venezuela “in a very profitable way,” adding, “We’re going to be using oil, and we’re going to be taking oil.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 18:50

'Mediator' Pakistan Hosted Iranian Military Aircraft To Insulate Them From US Attacks, Graham Fumes At Islamabad Summary

• CBS reports Pakistan sheltered Iranian military planes, Sen. Graham outraged, calls for 'reevaluation'.

• US President blasts 'piece of garbage' Iran response, says ceasefire on 'life support', reportedly mulls renewed military action; US Treasury imposes yet more sanctions.

• Trump mulls restarting Project Freedom in Hormuz and says forcibly retrieving 'nuclear dust' is still on the table, oil jumps on headline.

• Iran Foreign Ministry: "Everything we proposed in the text was reasonable and generous." However, US officials insist on their "unreasonable demands."

• Saudi Arabia condemns Iran for its latest drone attacks targeting the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait on Sunday.

• Qatari LNG tanker abruptly U-Turns In Hormuz chokepoint after earlier in weekend an initial one made it through - an unprecedented first for a Qatari tanker of the war.

//--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 40% · No 61%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Pakistan Hosted Iranian Military Planes To Insulate Them From US Attacks

There's been some outrage in D.C. and among the pundit class over a late in the day Monday CBS News report alleging that US-ally Pakistan allowed Iran to park military aircraft at its airfields, and thus outside the US-Israeli strike zone during Operation Epic Fury:

As Pakistan positioned itself as a diplomatic conduit between Tehran and Washington, it quietly allowed Iranian military aircraft to park on its airfields, potentially shielding them from American airstrikes, according to U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter. 

Iran also sent civilian aircraft to park in neighboring Afghanistan. It was not clear if military aircraft were among those flights, two of the officials told CBS News. 

President Trump and admin officials have repeatedly declared the utter and total destruction of Iran's air force and navy, but apparently some planes were missed. According to more from CBS: 

Together, the movements reflected an apparent effort to insulate some of Iran's remaining military and aviation assets from the expanding conflict, even as officials publicly served as brokers for de-escalation. 

The U.S. officials, who all spoke only under condition of anonymity to discuss national security issues, told CBS News that days after President Trump announced the ceasefire with Iran in early April, Tehran sent multiple aircraft to Pakistan Air Force Base Nur Khan, a strategically important military installation located just outside the Pakistani garrison city of Rawalpindi. 

Among the first to very angrily vent outrage is you know who from South Carolina...

If this reporting is accurate, it would require a complete reevaluation of the role Pakistan is playing as mediator between Iran, the United States and other parties.

Given some of the prior statements by Pakistani defense officials towards Israel, I would not be shocked if… https://t.co/OqJ1cdVLFX

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) May 11, 2026

US Rolls Out Yet More Sanctions, & Connected to China

Per Reuters on Monday afternoon: "The U.S. government on Monday announced sanctions against three people and nine companies, including four based ​in Hong Kong and four in the ‌United Arab Emirates, for aiding Iran's shipment of oil to China. The ninth company is based in Oman."

"The Treasury move follows ​sanctions announced on Friday on individuals and companies aiding Iranian ​purchases of weapons and components used to make ⁠drones and ballistic missiles," the report adds. These new measures target some Iran-linked entities in Hong Kong/China.

As there's not a whole lot to still sanction inside Iran, it looks like the US Treasury is focused on taking aim on external entities, though this is sure to increase Washington tensions with Beijing...

As Iran’s military desperately tries to regroup, Economic Fury will continue to deprive the regime of funding for its weapons programs, terrorist proxies, and nuclear ambitions. Treasury will continue to cut the Iranian regime off from the financial networks it uses to carry out… https://t.co/nenSlWtW8T

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) May 11, 2026

Trump Mulls Military Action As Ceasefire On "Life Support"

President Trump is meeting with his national security team Monday to discuss the way forward in the Iran war, including possibly resuming military action, after negotiations with the country deadlocked on Sunday, three U.S. officials told Axios.

U.S. officials say Trump wants a deal to end the war, but Iran's rejection of many of his demands and refusal to make meaningful concessions on its nuclear program puts the military option back on the table.

This sent oil prices back to the highs of the day...

President Trump also told Fox, that he sees a 1% chance of an Iran deal materializing and succeeding, as even the ceasefire is one of "the weakest, on life support":

President Donald Trump called out the "piece of garbage" peace proposal from Iran on Monday from the Oval Office, saying only "stupid people" in Iran are questioning his resolve in guaranteeing Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.

The latest Iranian proposal reneged on a past vow to give up enriched uranium.

None of this bodes well for the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz opening up anytime soon. Oil prices have reflected general pessimism at the start of this week.

Trump Might Fully Restart Project Freedom

Fox News is reporting that President Trump is considering renewing Project Freedom, pushing oil up. According to the developing story:

President Donald Trump has stated in an interview with Fox News that he is considering renewing Project Freedom, a military operation originally launched to secure the passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. This operation, involving significant U.S. naval assets, had been paused amid diplomatic efforts with Iran. The initial pause was influenced by diplomatic progress mediated by Pakistan, although recent developments suggest a potential escalation.

However, the reality is that the de facto US naval blockade has remained in place. The Iranians last week fired on US warships which were escorting foreign vessels through the strait. Since then there's been an uneasy calm amid stalled negotiations. There's really no movement on either side. Trump indicated in the fresh comments that all of this could be part of a larger operation, and strangely a bit of a contradictory stance: he said of Iran's "hardline leaders" that "they are going to fold" and that "I will deal with them until they make a deal". Of course, the very label of 'hardline' would suggest the opposite. 

The same Fox correspondent was told by Trump that forcibly retrieving Iran's 'nuclear dust' is still on the table:

.@realDonaldTrump Also told me that Iranian negotiators told him the US will have to retrieve the "nuclear dust" at Iran's destroyed facilities as Iran does not have the technology to do it. pic.twitter.com/2GgLVdQQoL

— John Roberts (@johnrobertsFox) May 11, 2026

'Unreasonable Demands'

It is clear there remains a huge gap between the positions of Washington and Tehran, after the past days saw proposal and counterproposal submitted via Pakistan, with the White House issuing its final response over the weekend, as President Trump called it 'unacceptable'.

According to new Monday words from Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, "Everything we proposed in the text was reasonable and generous." However, US officials continue to insist on their "unreasonable demands," Baghaei stressed. He described that Iran’s demands for the war to stop, for the US to lift its blockade, and the release Iran’s frozen assets, remain legitimate. Further, Tehran is demanding safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, along with establishing security in the region and in Lebanon.

Senior Iranian military official Mohsen Rezaee to Tasnim: There Is No Clear Prospect for a Political Agreement With the United States

"Unfortunately, the US continues to insist on its one-sided view," Baghaei added of the "reasonable, generous offer" built around Iran’s national interests. Iran has strongly suggested that the US is actually too influenced by driving Israeli interests, not American priorities. 

But per WSJ, Washington's focus remains on the nuclear issue, which Iran considers a non-starter in negotiations: "The president on Sunday said a multipage response that Iran sent to the U.S. proposal to end the war, which didn’t include commitments about Tehran’s nuclear program, was unacceptable," the publication writes.

Iran's FM Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei:

Iran has proven to be a responsible power in the region, and at the same time, we are not bullies — rather, we are anti-bullies. Just look at our conduct.

Were we the ones who launched a military campaign against America thousands of miles… pic.twitter.com/q6fz3fi75A

— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 11, 2026

KSA Condemns Sunday Drone Attacks

Saudi Arabia has condemned and blasted Iran for its latest drone attacks targeting the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait on Sunday, according to a new Foreign Ministry statement. The UAE had intercepted two drones coming from Iran, while Qatar said a drone attack hit a cargo ‌ship coming from Abu Dhabi in its waters. Kuwait in turn also said its air defenses had engaged hostile drones that entered its airspace. Kuwait, which borders Iran, has become a kind of front line for Iranian attacks and drone activity.

The Saudi Foreign Ministry reiterated its support and backing of all measures taken by Gulf states to protect their security and stability, saying, "The Kingdom demands an immediate halt to the blatant attacks on the territories and territorial waters of Gulf states, and to any attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz or disrupt international waterways."

"It emphasizes the importance of adhering to the protection of international maritime routes in accordance with relevant international laws," the ministry added.

Qatari LNG Tanker Abruptly U-Turns In Hormuz Chokepoint After Weekend Transit Breakthrough

Sunday's response by Trump to Iran's counterproposal pushed WTI crude futures nearly 3% higher to $98 a barrel as traders raised the war-risk premium tied to a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s counterproposal dominated attention over the weekend, but shipping activity in the region also drew focus after Bloomberg reporter Stephen Stapczynski cited vessel-tracking data showing that an LNG tanker successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz without incident.

The shipment marked the first time Qatar exported LNG through the strait since the war began ten weeks earlier. The tanker later docked in Pakistan. By Monday morning, Stapczynski reported that another fully loaded LNG tanker, “Mihzem,” was approaching the waterway. "Another Qatar LNG shipment is nearing the Strait of Hormuz, bound for Pakistan," Stapczynski wrote on X. He added, "Pakistan is dealing with a gas shortage, and has negotiated with Iran for several LNG shipments. If successful, this would be the second LNG cargo to transit Hormuz for Pakistan in a few days." 

Stapczynski's X post and report about the second Qatar LNG tanker attempting to transit the maritime chokepoint came early Monday. By 0700 ET, new ship-tracking data showed that the Mihzem abruptly reversed course roughly 20 miles before reaching Hormuz Island.

Tanker Leaking

There is a large oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz spotted leaking a trail of oil, after a potential hostile strike. The incident, picked up by satellite monitoring, comes also amid reports of a large oil slick near Kharg Island; however, the Iranians have denied that the Kharg incident is a large-scale leak or oil slick.

Here's what Tanker Trackers has commented on the below open sources satellite data and imagery (first struck on May 4):

The VLCC supertanker you see in the video below is BARAKAH (9902615). She is owned by UAE’s Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC); the country’s state-owned oil & gas producer. BARAKAH was struck by Iranian drones on 2026-05-04, which is when we found her in this state on satellite imagery for clients. She’s empty of oil cargo following a secret transfer she had to conduct east of UAE to another tanker. She was struck once heading back west to fetch more oil. ADNOC condemned the attacks.

Satellite imagery appears to show a large oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz leaking a trail of oil following a possible strike. Intense small speedboat activity can also be seen nearby.

Explore and Compare: https://t.co/BFXDgfBrjK#StraitofHormuz #Iran #MiddleEast pic.twitter.com/UDizD4Lejn

— Soar (@SoarAtlas) May 11, 2026

Netanyahu Holds Security Meeting, Amid Lebanon Escalation

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is convening a high level security meeting in his office in Jerusalem on Monday, according to The Times of Israel. The meeting comes after President Trump rejected Iran’s response to his ceasefire proposal, and ahead of direct Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington later this week. The Lebanon front has intensified, and IDF warplanes have heavily bombed not only southern Lebanon but the Beirut suburbs over the last days. Hezbollah drone attacks have become increasingly deadly in the meantime, with many serious injuries but also this latest:

An IDF reservist was killed in a Hezbollah drone attack in northern Israel, the Israel Defense Forces said on Monday. The slain soldier was named as Warrant Officer (res.) Alexander Glovanyov, 47, a driver in the Transport Center’s 6924th Battalion, from Petah Tikva.

The attack took place around 4 p.m. on Sunday, when several explosive-laden drones launched by Hezbollah struck in Israeli territory near Manara, close to the border with Lebanon. One of the drones killed Glovanyov, according to an IDF probe.

Iran Still Wants Comprehensive Deal to Include Lebanon

Responsible Statecraft writes, "No new developments on the Lebanese front give reason for optimism that this round will yield an agreement that two prior rounds did not. The Trump administration, however, has an incentive to push for an agreement because of President Trump’s need to extract himself and the United States from the impasse involving the Strait of Hormuz."

"The fighting on the Lebanese front since then has been as one-sided in the resulting death and destruction as Israeli combat with Palestinians," the publication observes. "The Israeli assault has killed 2,700 people in Lebanon, while Israeli fatalities have been 18 military personnel and two civilians. At the height of the offensive, more than a million people — about a fifth of Lebanon’s population — were displaced, and most remain so. Israeli forces have destroyed entire villages in southern Lebanon."

⚡️Hezbollah drone strike on Israel soldiers near southern Lebanon pic.twitter.com/OD8dZndMry

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) May 10, 2026

Iran continues to insist that any broader Iran war truce must encompass Lebanon as the conflict there flows out of the one in the Persian Gulf region. Al Jazeera meanwhile reports of the latest Monday: "Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon continues as Hezbollah claims more attacks on Israeli troops. The Lebanese Health Ministry says Israeli attacks in the past 24 hours have killed 51 people, including two medical workers."

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 18:45

'Mediator' Pakistan Hosted Iranian Military Aircraft To Insulate Them From US Attacks, Graham Fumes At Islamabad Summary

• CBS reports Pakistan sheltered Iranian military planes, Sen. Graham outraged, calls for 'reevaluation'.

• US President blasts 'piece of garbage' Iran response, says ceasefire on 'life support', reportedly mulls renewed military action; US Treasury imposes yet more sanctions.

• Trump mulls restarting Project Freedom in Hormuz and says forcibly retrieving 'nuclear dust' is still on the table, oil jumps on headline.

• Iran Foreign Ministry: "Everything we proposed in the text was reasonable and generous." However, US officials insist on their "unreasonable demands."

• Saudi Arabia condemns Iran for its latest drone attacks targeting the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait on Sunday.

• Qatari LNG tanker abruptly U-Turns In Hormuz chokepoint after earlier in weekend an initial one made it through - an unprecedented first for a Qatari tanker of the war.

//--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 40% · No 61%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Pakistan Hosted Iranian Military Planes To Insulate Them From US Attacks

There's been some outrage in D.C. and among the pundit class over a late in the day Monday CBS News report alleging that US-ally Pakistan allowed Iran to park military aircraft at its airfields, and thus outside the US-Israeli strike zone during Operation Epic Fury:

As Pakistan positioned itself as a diplomatic conduit between Tehran and Washington, it quietly allowed Iranian military aircraft to park on its airfields, potentially shielding them from American airstrikes, according to U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter. 

Iran also sent civilian aircraft to park in neighboring Afghanistan. It was not clear if military aircraft were among those flights, two of the officials told CBS News. 

President Trump and admin officials have repeatedly declared the utter and total destruction of Iran's air force and navy, but apparently some planes were missed. According to more from CBS: 

Together, the movements reflected an apparent effort to insulate some of Iran's remaining military and aviation assets from the expanding conflict, even as officials publicly served as brokers for de-escalation. 

The U.S. officials, who all spoke only under condition of anonymity to discuss national security issues, told CBS News that days after President Trump announced the ceasefire with Iran in early April, Tehran sent multiple aircraft to Pakistan Air Force Base Nur Khan, a strategically important military installation located just outside the Pakistani garrison city of Rawalpindi. 

Among the first to very angrily vent outrage is you know who from South Carolina...

If this reporting is accurate, it would require a complete reevaluation of the role Pakistan is playing as mediator between Iran, the United States and other parties.

Given some of the prior statements by Pakistani defense officials towards Israel, I would not be shocked if… https://t.co/OqJ1cdVLFX

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) May 11, 2026

US Rolls Out Yet More Sanctions, & Connected to China

Per Reuters on Monday afternoon: "The U.S. government on Monday announced sanctions against three people and nine companies, including four based ​in Hong Kong and four in the ‌United Arab Emirates, for aiding Iran's shipment of oil to China. The ninth company is based in Oman."

"The Treasury move follows ​sanctions announced on Friday on individuals and companies aiding Iranian ​purchases of weapons and components used to make ⁠drones and ballistic missiles," the report adds. These new measures target some Iran-linked entities in Hong Kong/China.

As there's not a whole lot to still sanction inside Iran, it looks like the US Treasury is focused on taking aim on external entities, though this is sure to increase Washington tensions with Beijing...

As Iran’s military desperately tries to regroup, Economic Fury will continue to deprive the regime of funding for its weapons programs, terrorist proxies, and nuclear ambitions. Treasury will continue to cut the Iranian regime off from the financial networks it uses to carry out… https://t.co/nenSlWtW8T

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) May 11, 2026

Trump Mulls Military Action As Ceasefire On "Life Support"

President Trump is meeting with his national security team Monday to discuss the way forward in the Iran war, including possibly resuming military action, after negotiations with the country deadlocked on Sunday, three U.S. officials told Axios.

U.S. officials say Trump wants a deal to end the war, but Iran's rejection of many of his demands and refusal to make meaningful concessions on its nuclear program puts the military option back on the table.

This sent oil prices back to the highs of the day...

President Trump also told Fox, that he sees a 1% chance of an Iran deal materializing and succeeding, as even the ceasefire is one of "the weakest, on life support":

President Donald Trump called out the "piece of garbage" peace proposal from Iran on Monday from the Oval Office, saying only "stupid people" in Iran are questioning his resolve in guaranteeing Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.

The latest Iranian proposal reneged on a past vow to give up enriched uranium.

None of this bodes well for the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz opening up anytime soon. Oil prices have reflected general pessimism at the start of this week.

Trump Might Fully Restart Project Freedom

Fox News is reporting that President Trump is considering renewing Project Freedom, pushing oil up. According to the developing story:

President Donald Trump has stated in an interview with Fox News that he is considering renewing Project Freedom, a military operation originally launched to secure the passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. This operation, involving significant U.S. naval assets, had been paused amid diplomatic efforts with Iran. The initial pause was influenced by diplomatic progress mediated by Pakistan, although recent developments suggest a potential escalation.

However, the reality is that the de facto US naval blockade has remained in place. The Iranians last week fired on US warships which were escorting foreign vessels through the strait. Since then there's been an uneasy calm amid stalled negotiations. There's really no movement on either side. Trump indicated in the fresh comments that all of this could be part of a larger operation, and strangely a bit of a contradictory stance: he said of Iran's "hardline leaders" that "they are going to fold" and that "I will deal with them until they make a deal". Of course, the very label of 'hardline' would suggest the opposite. 

The same Fox correspondent was told by Trump that forcibly retrieving Iran's 'nuclear dust' is still on the table:

.@realDonaldTrump Also told me that Iranian negotiators told him the US will have to retrieve the "nuclear dust" at Iran's destroyed facilities as Iran does not have the technology to do it. pic.twitter.com/2GgLVdQQoL

— John Roberts (@johnrobertsFox) May 11, 2026

'Unreasonable Demands'

It is clear there remains a huge gap between the positions of Washington and Tehran, after the past days saw proposal and counterproposal submitted via Pakistan, with the White House issuing its final response over the weekend, as President Trump called it 'unacceptable'.

According to new Monday words from Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, "Everything we proposed in the text was reasonable and generous." However, US officials continue to insist on their "unreasonable demands," Baghaei stressed. He described that Iran’s demands for the war to stop, for the US to lift its blockade, and the release Iran’s frozen assets, remain legitimate. Further, Tehran is demanding safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, along with establishing security in the region and in Lebanon.

Senior Iranian military official Mohsen Rezaee to Tasnim: There Is No Clear Prospect for a Political Agreement With the United States

"Unfortunately, the US continues to insist on its one-sided view," Baghaei added of the "reasonable, generous offer" built around Iran’s national interests. Iran has strongly suggested that the US is actually too influenced by driving Israeli interests, not American priorities. 

But per WSJ, Washington's focus remains on the nuclear issue, which Iran considers a non-starter in negotiations: "The president on Sunday said a multipage response that Iran sent to the U.S. proposal to end the war, which didn’t include commitments about Tehran’s nuclear program, was unacceptable," the publication writes.

Iran's FM Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei:

Iran has proven to be a responsible power in the region, and at the same time, we are not bullies — rather, we are anti-bullies. Just look at our conduct.

Were we the ones who launched a military campaign against America thousands of miles… pic.twitter.com/q6fz3fi75A

— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 11, 2026

KSA Condemns Sunday Drone Attacks

Saudi Arabia has condemned and blasted Iran for its latest drone attacks targeting the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait on Sunday, according to a new Foreign Ministry statement. The UAE had intercepted two drones coming from Iran, while Qatar said a drone attack hit a cargo ‌ship coming from Abu Dhabi in its waters. Kuwait in turn also said its air defenses had engaged hostile drones that entered its airspace. Kuwait, which borders Iran, has become a kind of front line for Iranian attacks and drone activity.

The Saudi Foreign Ministry reiterated its support and backing of all measures taken by Gulf states to protect their security and stability, saying, "The Kingdom demands an immediate halt to the blatant attacks on the territories and territorial waters of Gulf states, and to any attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz or disrupt international waterways."

"It emphasizes the importance of adhering to the protection of international maritime routes in accordance with relevant international laws," the ministry added.

Qatari LNG Tanker Abruptly U-Turns In Hormuz Chokepoint After Weekend Transit Breakthrough

Sunday's response by Trump to Iran's counterproposal pushed WTI crude futures nearly 3% higher to $98 a barrel as traders raised the war-risk premium tied to a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s counterproposal dominated attention over the weekend, but shipping activity in the region also drew focus after Bloomberg reporter Stephen Stapczynski cited vessel-tracking data showing that an LNG tanker successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz without incident.

The shipment marked the first time Qatar exported LNG through the strait since the war began ten weeks earlier. The tanker later docked in Pakistan. By Monday morning, Stapczynski reported that another fully loaded LNG tanker, “Mihzem,” was approaching the waterway. "Another Qatar LNG shipment is nearing the Strait of Hormuz, bound for Pakistan," Stapczynski wrote on X. He added, "Pakistan is dealing with a gas shortage, and has negotiated with Iran for several LNG shipments. If successful, this would be the second LNG cargo to transit Hormuz for Pakistan in a few days." 

Stapczynski's X post and report about the second Qatar LNG tanker attempting to transit the maritime chokepoint came early Monday. By 0700 ET, new ship-tracking data showed that the Mihzem abruptly reversed course roughly 20 miles before reaching Hormuz Island.

Tanker Leaking

There is a large oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz spotted leaking a trail of oil, after a potential hostile strike. The incident, picked up by satellite monitoring, comes also amid reports of a large oil slick near Kharg Island; however, the Iranians have denied that the Kharg incident is a large-scale leak or oil slick.

Here's what Tanker Trackers has commented on the below open sources satellite data and imagery (first struck on May 4):

The VLCC supertanker you see in the video below is BARAKAH (9902615). She is owned by UAE’s Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC); the country’s state-owned oil & gas producer. BARAKAH was struck by Iranian drones on 2026-05-04, which is when we found her in this state on satellite imagery for clients. She’s empty of oil cargo following a secret transfer she had to conduct east of UAE to another tanker. She was struck once heading back west to fetch more oil. ADNOC condemned the attacks.

Satellite imagery appears to show a large oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz leaking a trail of oil following a possible strike. Intense small speedboat activity can also be seen nearby.

Explore and Compare: https://t.co/BFXDgfBrjK#StraitofHormuz #Iran #MiddleEast pic.twitter.com/UDizD4Lejn

— Soar (@SoarAtlas) May 11, 2026

Netanyahu Holds Security Meeting, Amid Lebanon Escalation

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is convening a high level security meeting in his office in Jerusalem on Monday, according to The Times of Israel. The meeting comes after President Trump rejected Iran’s response to his ceasefire proposal, and ahead of direct Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington later this week. The Lebanon front has intensified, and IDF warplanes have heavily bombed not only southern Lebanon but the Beirut suburbs over the last days. Hezbollah drone attacks have become increasingly deadly in the meantime, with many serious injuries but also this latest:

An IDF reservist was killed in a Hezbollah drone attack in northern Israel, the Israel Defense Forces said on Monday. The slain soldier was named as Warrant Officer (res.) Alexander Glovanyov, 47, a driver in the Transport Center’s 6924th Battalion, from Petah Tikva.

The attack took place around 4 p.m. on Sunday, when several explosive-laden drones launched by Hezbollah struck in Israeli territory near Manara, close to the border with Lebanon. One of the drones killed Glovanyov, according to an IDF probe.

Iran Still Wants Comprehensive Deal to Include Lebanon

Responsible Statecraft writes, "No new developments on the Lebanese front give reason for optimism that this round will yield an agreement that two prior rounds did not. The Trump administration, however, has an incentive to push for an agreement because of President Trump’s need to extract himself and the United States from the impasse involving the Strait of Hormuz."

"The fighting on the Lebanese front since then has been as one-sided in the resulting death and destruction as Israeli combat with Palestinians," the publication observes. "The Israeli assault has killed 2,700 people in Lebanon, while Israeli fatalities have been 18 military personnel and two civilians. At the height of the offensive, more than a million people — about a fifth of Lebanon’s population — were displaced, and most remain so. Israeli forces have destroyed entire villages in southern Lebanon."

⚡️Hezbollah drone strike on Israel soldiers near southern Lebanon pic.twitter.com/OD8dZndMry

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) May 10, 2026

Iran continues to insist that any broader Iran war truce must encompass Lebanon as the conflict there flows out of the one in the Persian Gulf region. Al Jazeera meanwhile reports of the latest Monday: "Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon continues as Hezbollah claims more attacks on Israeli troops. The Lebanese Health Ministry says Israeli attacks in the past 24 hours have killed 51 people, including two medical workers."

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 18:45