We Have The Tools/Tolls To Do It

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Markets were delighted by US CPI data. Against a backdrop of oil up nearly double digits they instead got a number closer to a future trimmed mean measure without that nasty volatility, even if it was a fall in gasoline prices that resulted in the -0.4% m-o-m headline and 0.0% core prints.

Warsh modelled the New Model Army he wants to see central bankers being: he refused to say ‘mission accomplished’ on inflation: “We have the tools to do it” is perhaps being the new “Whatever it takes.” However, he didn’t want to talk about what he thought on rates: markets had to do that themselves, and they took CPI to mean less Fed tightening.

The Middle East’s new models of arms will get a big say on that. In Hormuz, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports is now back in effect, with enforcement of sanctions, and the two sides are trading blows across the strait, if not the deadliest they are capable of. Yet President Trump is again threatening to hit Iranian power plants and bridges next week if no deal is reached; Axios reports that Trump just held a Situation Room meeting on massive new strikes that are wide enough in scope to force Tehran to back off in Hormuz; the Houthis might threaten the Red Sea after announcing Saudi airspace is not safe for overflight; and Israeli PM Netanyahu warned Iran if his country is attacked, the response will be a “decisive blow.”

There are more positive signs too. Israel-Lebanon talks continue in Rome, along with a surprise Trump press conference call for Israel to withdraw from Lebanon and Syria that is unlikely to mean much on the ground. Trump also just hosted Iraq’s PM for talks on a final US troop withdrawal set for end-September, Iran, and oil - where the US is supporting efforts to revive an Iraq-Syria crude oil pipeline as another Hormuz workaround.

Trump also dropped his 20% Hormuz toll in favor of GCC FDI pledges into the US. Take Trump seriously (the US is not going to fight for free) not literally (the toll was impractical short of a full state-press vs the private sector); and will those who fight alongside the US see their FDI contribution commensurately lower? A more obvious carrot and stick is the Wall Street Journal underlining the UAE was rewarded with coveted US AI chips for supporting the war.

At a more meta level than the Financial Times -- opining Trump has no clear path to victory vs. Iran -- sees, stop to Hor-muse over this idea for a moment too:

1. The US national security strategy openly calls for control of maritime chokepoints.
2. That must include Hormuz and its energy flows.
3. That’s very expensive --and hard-- to achieve and maintain.
4. Yet someone else controlling Hormuz is even more expensive, geostrategically.
5. So, if the US starts a war to control Hormuz but can’t, even if it gains during fighting as an LNG and helium exporter, why not then ensure the strait is not a chokepoint?
6. How better to achieve that than to ensure Hormuz remains in on-off chaos long enough that friends’ pipelines and new oil supply eventually reduce it to more of a sideshow?
7. Seen that way, though the US went into this war wanting ‘Venezuela 2.0’, within limits, it has rolling optionality on other outcomes that suit its geostrategy - and it “has the tolls to do it.”

Brent is still stable at $85-86, in line with our energy analyst Joe Delaura’s expectations, following the aggressive short squeeze just seen. For more from him, and Florence Schmit on LNG, see here.

There is also more recognition of the incredible success of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s Sea of Azov fleet, which Moscow is calling terrorism. Imagine that transplanted elsewhere…

Meanwhile, President Macron used Bastille Day to showcase Europe's defense ambitions and will allow Ukraine to build French defense systems there; but the head of Germany’s Luftwaffe warned Europe has “no time” to counter Putin without US weapons. Somebody who should know thinks that Europe doesn’t have the tools to do it.

US Under Secretary of War Colby had a blunt social media message in a related regard, not just for Europe, but for Australia and Canada, among others: “There is a great deal of hubbub about a collective “middle powers” strategy these days. At the Department of War, we are not concerned that this is a serious possibility. Rather, we are more concerned that a few allies and partners will *think it is* and waste valuable time, money, and political capital on a distraction.”

Just before that, UK Chancellor Reeves gave an annual Mansion House speech which sounded like an interview to keep her job under PM Burnham by focusing on devolution, postcodes, “economic security is national security,” “securonomics,” and “industrial strategy.” Yet she didn’t mention tariffs as the tools to do it when statecraft logic, which she implies is being embraced, says this cannot happen without them. Then again, Reeves also sounded like she would like to rejoin the EU if possible, so that tariff decision hypothetically wouldn’t be any UK government’s to make anyway.

For its part, Europe will look at yesterday’s China-EU trade data, with the Chinese surplus surging yet again, and the report that China is targeting strategic sectors in the Netherlands as Dutch technology and companies offer Beijing outsize influence over value chains, and thinking about what it needs to do re: trade come October.

Likewise, Chinese Q2 GDP today was 4.3% y-o-y, lower than the 4.5% consensus, but 0.9% q-o-q expectations, and the y-o-y year-to-date (YTD) figure was 4.7% vs. 4.8%. Within that, retail sales for June were 1.0% y-o-y and 1.3% y-o-y YTD, while industrial production was 5.3% y-o-y vs. 4.6% consensus and 5.4% y-o-y YTD. Fixed asset investment was -5.7% y-o-y YTD, worse than -5.0% expected. In short, consumers are spending little, investment is declining (with property investment -18% y-o-y YTD and new house prices -0.3% m-o-m), yet industry is booming: that either means stockpiles are building or exports are flooding the world.

It’s the latter, clearly, as China’s economic statecraft has the tools to do it: for example, it now not only makes the tools Germany used to, but the tool-making machines it used to. Now let’s all say “securonomics” or “strategic autonomy” again and see what happens next.

Aside from tools and tolls, markets can also note that China just increased its holdings of US Treasuries, as Japan’s Finance Ministry is floating JGBs in tax-free accounts amid a GPIF portfolio review to incentivise its vast funds to keep more cash at home not abroad. What if (or when) other major economies follow suit to try to deal with the vast bills looming for a true “securonomics”?

In the meantime, enjoy headlines such as ‘Wall Street Traders Seize on Fervour and Fear to Set Records’ and ‘IBM Acting Like a Penny Stock Is a Sign of Times’ on your Bloomberg screen.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/15/2026 - 10:00

The post Blocking the Paramount-Warner Merger: Keeping the Trumpers from Owning Everything appeared first on CEPR.

Why Central Banks Love A Gold Sell-Off

Via SchiffSovereign.com,

On July 7, Bloomberg published an article with the headline: “Gold’s Bull Market Has Ended and Now All Eyes Are on Bears,” explaining how many retail investors have headed for the exits.

That same day, the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, reported its largest monthly gold purchase since 2023.

Of course, June marked its twentieth consecutive month of adding gold to its reserves. Central banks are relatively price insensitive. They buy gold as a long term hedge to preserve value, not to trade back for more paper.

But they aren’t stupid either, and this shows they are buying the dip.

Gold peaked at $5,589 per ounce on January 28 and trades around $4,000 today, roughly 28% below the high. The second quarter was gold’s worst since 2013. Investors have pulled about $18 billion out of gold ETFs since the peak, much of it late money that piled in during last year’s frenzy and bolted the moment momentum broke.

But the price is not the story. The story is what central banks are doing.

Central banks have been the dominant force in gold since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the US froze $300 billion of Russia’s central bank reserves, and every finance ministry on earth learned that dollar assets were not the safe havens they’d believed.

In 2024, central banks bought 1,090 tons of gold, close to an all-time record.

That massive demand made gold expensive. The price nearly doubled from its 2025 low, and central bank buying slowed to 863 tons. That was still higher than historical averages, but down 21% from the year before.

The slowdown was not fading interest; it was price discipline. Central banks are not traders chasing momentum. They are savers accumulating a reserve asset, and like any sensible saver, they buy less when the thing they are saving in gets expensive.

And they speed back up when it goes on sale. In the first quarter of this year central banks bought 244 tons, more than the previous quarter and above the five-year average. China alone has added about 40 tons in the first six months of 2026, compared to just 27 tons in all of 2025. The People’s Bank of China bought more gold last month, with the price down nearly 30% from its high, than in any single month of the entire run-up.

The reason is simple: nothing has changed about why they buy.

The World Gold Council, the industry group that tracks official gold demand, surveyed 76 central banks this year. Seventy-four percent said they expect the dollar’s share of global reserves to be lower five years from now.

These are the institutions that actually hold the world’s reserves, and they are telling you, on the record, that they plan to keep moving away from the dollar.

None of their reasons went away when the price fell. The US national debt keeps growing by trillions, Congress has no plan beyond borrowing more, and Washington keeps proving it will continue to weaponize the dollar.

A central bank holding dollars is holding the liability of a government that is both overextended and unpredictable. Gold sitting in its own vault carries neither risk.

That calculus was true at $5,589, and it is just as true at $4,000.

A trader who is down 28% has a problem if they are trying to quickly turn a profit, and accumulate more paper dollars.

But a saver who plans to accumulate gold for the next decade just got a better price. That is why the sell-off did not scare away the biggest buyers in the market.

It may be exactly what they were waiting for.

We made this argument to our subscribers of our investment research newsletter, Strategic Assets, in January.

With gold near its all-time high, we said that this was no longer the early stage of a bull market, that a major drawdown was a real possibility, and that it was time to take some profits.

In fact, subscribers who took action on our research locked in gains of more than 950% on a small silver producer and 540% on a gold and silver producer, both in under a year.

Now the sell-off has come for the miners too. Even solid, debt-free producers are trading as much as 50% below their highs from earlier this year.

But again, as nothing had changed about the long term gold thesis, little has changed about the profitability of these companies. They are still wildly profitable at $4,000 gold, which is far above projections they had planned for.

Some of these companies are still pulling gold out of the ground at a cost of just $1,000 an ounce, which is an amazing margin.

So we are starting to buy again.

It is the same discipline the central banks just demonstrated: slow down when the asset is expensive, step up when it gets cheap, and never confuse a price correction with a change in the story.

Nobody knows where gold trades next month. But the biggest buyers on earth just showed you what they do when gold gets cheaper. They buy more.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/15/2026 - 09:20

Man Fleeing ICE Agents Struck, Killed By Semi-Truck In Florida

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

A 28-year-old man died early on July 14 after he ran into the path of a tractor-trailer on State Road 16 in St. Augustine, Florida, moments after running from federal immigration agents at a nearby gas station.

Florida Highway Patrol Master Sgt. Dylan Bryan said the sequence of events started in the parking lot of a convenience store just before 7 a.m.

Homeland Security Investigations and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents were at the scene when four people ran off.

One of them ran across the road straight into oncoming traffic when he was hit by a semi-truck.

He was pronounced dead at the scene. The truck driver was uninjured.

State troopers are handling the investigation. The man’s name hasn’t been released.

Authorities have not shared much information about the four people who tried to flee on Tuesday morning or exactly why agents contacted them in the first place.

ICE and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

It was the third death in a week during ICE incidents, following fatal shootings in Texas and Maine.

In Texas, an ICE officer fatally shot an illegal immigrant from Mexico during a targeted enforcement operation in Houston after the man used his vehicle to try to run over an agent.

In Maine, an illegal immigrant with a final order of removal was fatally shot by an ICE officer in Biddeford after he attempted to flee in his vehicle during a traffic stop.

A day later, border czar Tom Homan told Fox News on Tuesday that ICE is temporarily suspending most vehicle stops nationwide.

“It’s not a policy change. It’s a temporary pause,” Homan said.

“ICE leadership along with DHS believes they want to look at these last couple incidents and look: Is there something that could have been done better? Is there any training that can be improved? Or is it simply ICE doing a job, and bad things happen when people don’t comply with law enforcement officers?”

Homan stressed that the pause on most vehicle stops will not reduce the frequency of arrests ICE agents make of illegal immigrants. Officers can still apprehend individuals as they exit their homes before getting into a vehicle, or after they arrive at their destination, the border czar said. He cited a surge in vehicle assaults on federal agents since President Donald Trump returned to the White House as the reason for the change.

“If we can arrest that alien outside that vehicle and take that two-ton weapon away from them, that’s good in some instances,” Homan said. “Other instances, we’re still going to need to do vehicle stops for a significant criminal.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/15/2026 - 08:45

July Rate-Hike Off The Table After Producer Price Inflation Drops Most Since COVID

Following yesterday's much cooler than expected, Goldman's Rich Privorotsky notes that today’s PPI print matters more for the core PCE read-through (Fed's favorite inflation indicator), particularly healthcare and financial services.

While May's headline PPI print was hot, core was cooler than expected, and June's data release today was expected to show no change in headline producer prices.

In fact, like with CPI, headline Producer prices actually saw deflation (-0.3% MoM), equaling the biggest monthly decline since April 2020. The annual pace of producer price gains slowed to 5.5% (well below the 6.2% expected) and May's big jump was revised notably lower also...

While Services remain with modest inflation, Goods are in significant deflation now...

Core PPI (ex Food and Energy) printed +0.2% MoM, cooler than the +0.3% MoM expected, and May's rise was revised notably lower leaving Core prices up 4.7% YoY (vs +54.1% YoY exp)...

Energy was the biggest driver of the headline deflation, but Food and Transportation also saw MoM price declines...

PPI MoM dropped -0.3%, below est of 0.0%, and down from a 0.6% increase in May (revised from +1.1%). PPI rose 5.5% for the 12 months ended in June. Core PPI rose 0.1% MoM in June, a drop from the 0.8% in May; On a YoY basis, core PPI rose 5.5%, a drop from 6.0% in May.

The June PPI decline can be attributed to prices for final demand goods, which fell 1.4%. In contrast, the index for final demand services moved up 0.2%.

Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods moved down 1.4%R in June, the largest decrease since falling 1.9% in July 2022. Leading the decline in June, prices for final demand energy dropped 6.4 percent. The index for final demand foods moved down 0.6 percent. Conversely, prices for final demand goods less foods and energy increased 0.2 percent.

• Product detail: Nearly two-thirds of the June decline in the index for final demand goods can be traced to prices for gasoline, which dropped 12.0 percent. The indexes for diesel fuel, jet fuel, fresh vegetables (except potatoes), crude petroleum, and thermoplastic resins and materials also fell. In contrast, prices for plastic products advanced 1.6 percent. The indexes for residential electric power and for potatoes also increased.

Final demand services: The index for final demand services rose 0.2% in June after falling 0.1% in May. Over 60 percent of the advance can be attributed to margins for final demand trade services, which moved up 0.4 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing increased 0.1%. Conversely, the index for final demand transportation and warehousing services declined 0.1%.

• Product detail: Half of the June increase in the index for final demand services can be traced to margins for fuels and lubricants retailing, which jumped 13.0 percent. The indexes for securities brokerage, dealing, and investment advice; furniture retailing; apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing; loan services (partial); and inpatient care also rose. In contrast, margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling declined 8.4 percent. The indexes for food and alcohol wholesaling and for deposit services (partial) also fell.

And it appears, like with CPI, that Energy's impact on inflation has peaked with prices...

Services did pick up from May's deflation...

Additionally, according to the data, Memory prices also dipped...

Following this print's confirmation of easing inflation angst, July is effectively off the table (technically 9% chance still priced), while September remains live (45%)...

Unless core inflation reaccelerates, Goldman's Privorotsky says rate pricing should remain close to current levels.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/15/2026 - 08:38

My mid-week morning train WFH reads:

•  Developers Are In On The Joke: Apologize Later: Jonathan Miller on developers who build first and beg forgiveness after. The oldest play in real estate. NYC Development Legend Harry Macklowe’s Midnight Demolitions (Housing Notes)

• Why recruiters can’t find workers and new grads can’t find jobs (it’s not AI): The Post digs into why recruiters can’t find workers while new grads can’t find jobs — and no, it’s not AI. A hiring market full of broken signals. Experts say a major labor shortage looms because of population shifts and a mismatch between new graduates’ skills and employers’ needs. (Washington Post) But See Remote Work Leaves Younger Workers Sidelined. Youth unemployment has risen dramatically since the pandemic—as has the prevalence of remote work.The New York Fed’s research shows early-career workers are being disproportionately harmed by remote arrangements — less mentoring, fewer network connections, slower skill development. Analysis suggests that these trends are related, with remote work making it more difficult for managers to train and mentor new employees The people who need the office most are the ones least likely to be in it. (Liberty Street Economics)

• You should be glad your boss is so well paid: Because it probably means you’re being paid well too.  (FT Alphaville free)

• What Are the Chances of Your Prediction Being Right? I have a question for you. If you take all of the hearts from a standard deck of 52 playing cards, and then lay them out one by one, in how many different orders can the 13 cards be dealt? Joe Wiggins on the odds your market prediction is actually right — and why the honest answer should keep forecasters humble. (Behavioural Investment)

• Why the Bipartisan Housing Bill Can Still Become Law – Despite Trump’s Refusal to Sign: The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which passed easily through both chambers of Congress in a rare display of bipartisanship, would ban large institutional investors from purchasing additional single-family homes. US News on why the bipartisan housing bill can still become law despite Trump’s refusal to sign. Procedural arcana, meet housing crisis. (US News)

• One of sci-fi’s most difficult questions about AI is becoming real: The rapid spread of chatbots and AI agents is intensifying a debate over who should be held responsible when something goes wrong. (Washington Post)

• How Putin Turned Japan Into a Den of Spies: Operating out of a Tokyo high-rise, a military intelligence unit finds the high-tech equipment that Russia needs to wage war. How Putin turned Japan into a den of spies: Russian intelligence quietly mining Japanese tech and industry for the war effort. (New York Times) see also Japan Is Building a New Intelligence Agency With Help From the West: Facing threats from Russia and China, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is breaking with World War II-era limits on security. Japan is standing up a real intelligence agency with Western help — a big deal for a country that’s been allergic to spycraft since 1945. (New York Times)

• Aspiring to Regional Domination, Iran Is Ready to Escalate Over Hormuz: New outbreak of fighting over the strait comes as Tehran sees itself as a winner in the war that would establish a new Pax Iranica in the Middle East. Iran isn’t bluffing on the Strait. The Wall Street Journal reports on Tehran’s military posture and its willingness to escalate — with global energy markets as collateral. = (Wall Street Journal)

• The 35-year-old powering Paul McCartney and the Rolling Stones: Andrew Watt listened obsessively to rock as a teenager. Now, he considers all of his heroes — from Elton John to Mick Jagger — to be friends. Meet Andrew Watt, the 35-year-old producer powering late-career McCartney and the Stones. The Post profiles rock’s favorite whisperer. Andrew Watt listened obsessively to rock as a teenager. Now, he considers all of his heroes — from Elton John to Mick Jagger — to be friends. (Washington Post)

• Norway turn World Cup heartbreak into celebration as huge crowds pack Oslo: Norway loses the World Cup final and Oslo throws a party anyway. Huge crowds, zero bitterness — imagine that. More than 100,000 fans flooded the streets of Oslo, Norway’s capital, to give their team a warm welcome, turning the heartbreak of their World Cup exit into ⁠a massive national celebration. (The Guardian) see also Why is tiny Norway so good at sports? It’s more than Erling Haaland.  A youth system built on joy and participation instead of early specialization. One answer is that, from the youngest ages, Norway thinks about sports in a radically different way. In Norway, teams do not keep score before children turn 11, and the players cannot be separated into ranks until they are 12 or 13. Sports begin not as a race to the top, but as a constitutionally guaranteed social benefit for all, a place to learn, grow, and – perhaps most importantly – have fun. (Christian Science Monitor)

Video of the day: Why Tesla Sales are Falling Short in the U.S.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with McKeel Hagerty, CEO and Chairman of Hagerty. We discuss how he transformed the family boat insurance business into a “sexy” driver-forward business. We also discuss our love of collectable cars and his love of his first car, a Porsche, that he bought at the age of 13.

 

How many Americans are using AI — and how?

Source: USA Facts

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Wednesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Can Britain's Next Prime Minister Escape The Net-Zero Trap?

Authored by Diana Furchtgott-Roth via Civitas Outlook,

Andy Burnham has a chance to restore sanity to British politics by choosing domestic production over Chinese renewables.

Britain is suffering from disruptions in both weather and politics as a heat wave grips a country where only four percent of homes have air conditioning. Sir Keir Starmer has resigned as Labour Prime Minister, and former Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, elected earlier this month as MP from Makerfield, is slated to replace him.

Since former Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May signed Britain up to the amended Climate Change Act in 2019, a binding law requiring a 100 percent reduction in emissions by 2050 compared to 1990 levels, Britain has had five Prime Ministers. This outpaces Italy, which has had three, long the byword for political instability in the Western world.

After Mrs. May herself, Britain cycled through Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, and now Sir Keir—none of them popular, none of them successful, all of them departing under economic pressure and in failure. This general dissatisfaction is not a coincidence, but linked to higher energy prices, which reduce growth and employment.

But today’s disruptions could be useful if Sir Keir’s resignation opened a window for Britain to reset its energy policy. Mr. Burnham, dubbed the King of the North, has already signaled that he wants affordable power and British jobs, especially in Britain’s north.

In his victory speech after winning his return to Parliament, Mr. Burnham declared:

“We do need to bring down water bills, energy bills, rail fares, just as we brought down bus fares in Greater Manchester, to make life more affordable for people.”

If he means it, energy is the place to start.

Britain pays 42 cents per kilowatt-hour for electricity. Germany, Europe’s other great champion of the green transition, pays 43 cents. The United States, which has no national Net Zero law, pays 20 cents, less than half. Almost every EU country with binding emissions targets pays above 30 cents.

European policy choices have mandated expensive generation, loaded green levies onto bills, and prematurely wound down reliable conventional power. The Brits are paying a Net Zero surcharge on every unit of electricity they consume, every single day, with no measurable effect on global temperatures in 2100. And Britain’s wind and solar dependency funnels money to Chinese state-subsidized manufacturers and workers rather than British ones.

This means slower UK growth. Since the end of 2019, before the pandemic, the United States has recorded total GDP growth of 15.1 percent, compared to just 6 percent for the UK. Forecasts offer little comfort: the OECD projects UK growth of just 0.8 percent in 2026, against 2.3 percent for the United States. Countries with the highest electricity prices are growing the slowest.

And it’s not like Britain is getting top value for its money. Two weeks ago, temperatures above 25 degrees Celsius (77 degrees Fahrenheit) reduced the efficiency of UK solar panels, and a lack of wind stalled the wind turbines. With electricity demand running at about 36 gigawatts, Britain had to import 20 percent of its electricity from the European Union.

The good news is that Mr. Burnham, with his flexible views, can take a different path.

Britain is not a resource-poor nation forced to depend on foreign suppliers, but a resource-rich nation that has chosen dependency through planning rules, regulatory obstruction, and a Net Zero framework that treats domestic oil and gas production as a moral failing rather than a strategic necessity.

In the short run, Britain could produce more North Sea oil and gas and approve stalled domestic natural gas projects. In the long run, Britain could speed up permitting for nuclear power plants, including new technologies such as floating nuclear reactors in harbors, as proposed by the British company Core Power.

Britain now imports oil and gas from Norway rather than allowing British workers to be well paid to extract them from the same North Sea—and pay taxes on the earnings. While Britain sits on the sidelines, Norway’s Equinor is raising output projections for the Norwegian continental shelf due to technological improvements and rising demand.

Mr. Burnham can move forward with offshore projects in the North Sea and North Atlantic totaling between 157,000 and 162,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with combined lifetime recoverable reserves ranging from 560 million to 920 million barrels of oil equivalent. Ithaca Energy’s Cambo project and Adura’s Rosebank and Jackdaw fields are all currently awaiting approval.

Adura estimates that Rosebank and Jackdaw will generate almost $38 billion in gross value added over their lifespans, generate almost $2 billion in tax revenues before the end of the current Parliament in 2029, and support 3,500 jobs.

In addition, the Gainsborough Trough, a major sedimentary basin between Lincolnshire and South Yorkshire, holds about 16 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas, equivalent to 2,750 million barrels of oil. With hydrofracturing, it could power Britain for ten years and create a quarter of a million jobs. Egdon Resources has long wanted to develop it, and no government funds would be needed.

Using these domestic resources would create well-paying jobs in northern communities that have seen manufacturing and mining decline over decades—precisely the area that Mr. Burnham wants to win from Reform.

To achieve Mr. Burnham’s desired growth, the government must remove the planning restrictions, the moratorium on hydraulic fracturing, and the regulatory framework that makes hydrocarbon investment impossible. Mr. Burnham needs to say plainly that Britain’s growth matters more than the approval of green lobbying groups.

The question is whether Mr. Burnham will move Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero Ed Miliband to the coveted position of Chancellor of the Exchequer. Miliband has been the defining force in Sir Keir’s Cabinet against developing a realistic energy policy.

Mr. Miliband now presides over the planning regime that blocks hydrocarbon development, and it is his ideology, the belief that Britain can lead the world to Net Zero by making itself dependent on foreign energy while foreigners burn their own, that keeps British electricity rates among the highest in the world.

If Mr. Miliband were promoted to Chancellor of the Exchequer, he would oversee balancing the budget, or at least minimizing the deficit, and he might see energy production in an entirely different light. As current Chancellor Rachel Reeves has discovered, raising taxes and taking away senior citizens’ winter fuel credits are unpopular options (and may cost her her position).

Unfortunately, Mr. Burnham has floated the idea of nationalizing energy companies and other public infrastructure, even though money would have to be borrowed, taxed, or diverted from other priorities. Public ownership of expensive infrastructure would not achieve Mr. Burnham’s objective of lowering prices. The history of state-owned enterprises in Britain, reversed by former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, is a history of inefficiency, underinvestment, and costs ultimately borne by taxpayers. What Mr. Burnham needs is private investment in cheap domestic production.

Energy is foundational to economic growth and to the costs of manufacturing, transportation, heating, and food production and storage. When governments require shifts from cheaper to more expensive energy options (such as from fossil fuels to more expensive renewables), they raise energy costs across the entire economy. Higher energy costs result in higher prices for goods and services, squeezing household budgets and eroding real wages.

Businesses facing higher power bills invest less, hire fewer workers, and, in some cases, relocate to cheaper jurisdictions abroad. The result is an economy that grows more slowly than it should, generates fewer job opportunities than it could, and delivers lower living standards than voters expect. People pay more for electricity and gas, groceries, and gasoline. And they take it out on whoever is leading the country. In Britain, this is the Prime Minister.

For years, Britain has turned its back on its own hydrocarbon wealth in pursuit of wind and solar targets that have driven up bills, exported jobs, and left the country dependent on imported LNG priced by global markets. The paradox is glaring: Britain sits atop significant untapped gas reserves yet pays premium prices for fuel shipped from abroad.

The economics are straightforward. North Sea drilling and domestic gas development are cheaper than the combined cost of offshore wind, grid expansion, and the battery storage needed to cover the days the wind doesn’t blow. Every pound spent on domestic production is a pound that stays in Britain, is taxed in Britain, and is employed in Britain rather than enriching foreign exporters.

Burnham says he wants to be the voice of the North. Here is his chance to prove it. An energy policy built around private investment in domestic production, lower bills, and British jobs recognizes that the transition must work for working people, not just for the investment banks financing wind farms.

Reform is siphoning off votes from both Labour and the Conservatives because it speaks to the cost of living in terms voters recognize. Mr. Burnham can occupy that ground without abandoning Labour’s broader commitments, simply by insisting that British energy for British homes comes before imported energy at any price.

Partly due to the costs of its Net Zero laws, Britain has burned through five Prime Ministers and is paying some of the highest electricity prices in the world. The King of the North has a chance to change that if he chooses a different path.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/15/2026 - 06:30

"Deport Criminals Who Steal Or Kill": Spanish Model Blasts Barcelona's Immigration Crisis

Via Remix News,

Influencer and model Jessica Goicoechea has posted a video on her social media channels in which she openly criticizes the insecurity she believes plagues Barcelona and details the personal measures she has taken to protect herself. In the clip, Goicoechea displays several security items she recently bought in Andorra, including 4 bottles of pepper sprays and a taser gun, which she describes as her "new essentials."

The video ends with a direct message: "Now, I can go calmly through Barcelona."

??? JUST IN: Spanish model Jessica Goicoechea shows off her 4 bottles of pepper spray and a Taser gun while speaking out against immigration.

"Now, I can go calmly through Barcelona," she said.

Following the video's viral spread, Goicoechea wrote a statement explaining that... pic.twitter.com/ATZYvfkOaX

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) July 13, 2026

The publication quickly sparked intense debate across social platforms. While some users criticized her for publicly showcasing self-defense weapons, many others - particularly women - expressed support and inquired about where similar products could be purchased. In response, Goicoechea stated that she is receiving "infinite messages" from women seeking ways to protect themselves. She defended her actions by saying that, given the current situation, she believes "if you don't protect yourself, no one will."

Following the video's viral spread, Goicoechea followed up with a written statement. She explained that she had never wanted to enter debates about safety or immigration but felt compelled to speak out because conditions have deteriorated.

"I'm never going to shut up again," she declared. The model described living in fear while walking the streets of Barcelona and highlighted what she called a daily increase in stabbings and shootings that she becomes aware of almost constantly.

In the same statement, Goicoechea emphasized that her concerns are not aimed at immigration in general but specifically at individuals who commit crimes. She pointed to recidivism, impunity, and insufficient controls on people with serious criminal records as the core issues.

"The problem is not where someone comes from, but how they behave," she maintained.

Addressing comments under her video, Goicoechea responded to one follower who linked Barcelona's rising crime to immigration by saying she "100% agrees."

?? "They started hitting me in the stomach and in the face."

A Polish model, attacked by a group of migrants in Milan, spoke to Polish media about her experience.

The attack only ended abruptly thanks to the heroics of an Italian man who intervened.

The report links the attack... pic.twitter.com/ln1Rds6mTN

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) June 9, 2026

"It all stems from political mistakes, regardless of the party's political color, due to poor immigration planning," read the comment she agreed with.

She later clarified that this agreement applied only to those who engage in criminal activity. She argued that "if you come to steal or kill, I prefer you be deported."

Goicoechea reiterated that her goal is to call for improved street safety and a firmer response to crime. "I believe that demanding safe streets and firm laws against those who come to commit crimes is essential and common sense," she concluded in the statement shared on her profiles.

????Poland is much safer than the US, says Polish-American supermodel Joanna Krupa.

She directly refers to the murder of Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska, who was killed by a career criminal with 14 convictions.

"I certainly feel more secure in Poland than in the States."... pic.twitter.com/eCGIieS5nG

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) September 23, 2025

Her comments arrive amid a series of violent incidents recorded across Catalonia in recent weeks, including approximately thirty firearms-related events, many concentrated in the Barcelona metropolitan area. These have been accompanied by frequent robberies and assaults that continue to affect both local residents and tourists, often generating significant public attention.

Other European models have delivered similar messages about crime concerns in the past, including Polish-American supermodel Joanna Krupa.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/15/2026 - 02:00

Iran War 3.0: Where Did This All Go Wrong?

Authored by Alastair Crooke

When the US Navy, in co-ordination with Qatar and Oman, tried to slip a convoy of four vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, via Omani waters, last Tuesday night – rather than pass via Iran’s officially approved route – Trump may have imagined (or been told) that with the massive funeral for the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei under way, that Iran would not react as the US Navy attempted to force open an American corridor. Trump however, misread the Iranian jibe – Hormuz is its “atomic weapon.” Iran will not relinquish it.

Trump insists – in clear contradiction to the terms set out in paragraph five of the MoU – that Iran has no right to interfere with any ship trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iran nonetheless is acting within the terms of the agreed de-escalation framework, and has warned repeatedly that it would strike any vessel circumventing the Iranian control mechanism.

Iran responded directly to Trump’s challenge to Iranian control of the Strait by striking two vessels with missiles and a third with an armed drone. A forth Qatari-owned tanker, laden with liquefied natural gas, was set ablaze, forcing its crew to abandon the stricken vessel.

These Iranian ripostes provoked Trump to order American air strikes against Iranian targets; to reimpose sanctions on the Islamic Republic’s oil exports; and to revoke the MoU framework he had signed with what he called the “Iranian scum” – thus ending the ceasefire. “We hit them hard last night,” Trump said at the NATO summit in Ankara. “We will probably hit them hard again tonight.”

Trump did hit Iran again Wednesday night – even though Iran had not attacked another vessel seeking to by-pass the Iranian corridor. In response, Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones at US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE and Muwaffaq Al-Salti airbase in Jordan.

Vice-President Vance is saying to Iran, “If you try to close the Strait of Hormuz, the American military will respond. It’s that simple” – i.e. Iran either keeps the Strait fully open to all, or the US will keep hitting it, as it did on Tuesday night.

Iran insists that it is the US that has violated the MoU and (via the spokesman for Iran’s Parliamentary National Security Committee) warns that further attacks by the US on Iran will be met by a comprehensive all-out surprise offensive by Iran – and potentially by other options too, such as an Iranian withdrawal from the NPT, changing the country’s nuclear doctrine, and closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait alongside the Strait of Hormuz.

So, Vice-President Vance is saying if Iran restricts Hormuz (i.e. it stays open to friendly states’ vessels) the US will escalate. And Iran is responding to this threat by warning that it will escalate militarily – two strikes for every one American strike – and that they may also turn to new doctrines of warfare.

Essentially, Trump has plunged into an escalatory trap, seemingly in part out of pique at his collapsing polls at home. He did, however, directly put himself in this situation by trying to “act cute” during the Khamenei funeral pre-occupations in order to try to gain a “quick win.”

How long will this escalatory episode last? Certainly, it will not lead to the opening of the Strait; nor bring a return of the status quo ante that preceded the war. As long as Iran maintains its ability to exert control over Hormuz, there is no basis to assume that the situation will return to what it was.

On the contrary, and more likely, the crisis will accelerate the onset of looming global economic crisis that could last until the economic pain becomes acute, as the drawdown on sour crude continues – and as the effects on the real economy in the West become visible.

With shortages of munitions and the drawdown on air assets from the Middle East already beginning, Trump probably lacks the wherewithal to go full “Iran War 3.0.”

The timeline to this new bout of low-intensity tit-for-tat therefore, is likely dictated by refinery inventories in the US; but also by the extent of the “hurt” being experienced by Trump back home in the context of his fading political prospects, but also by his dislike for any personal humiliation.

Where did this all go wrong? Possibly the crux of it derives from the moment that Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Sayyed Mojtaba, issued his statement that he had held a different view on the MoU to that of the negotiating team, but had agreed to proceed with it after receiving an assurance from the Iranian President that he would ensure and take into account Iran’s overarching principles in respect to relations with the US.

The Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei’s statement put on notice both the US – and the Iranian negotiators – that Iran’s approval of the MoU was no open mandate, but rather closely tied to the 10 principles originally enunciated by the new Supreme Leader.

At some point, the Iranian leadership seemingly came to the conclusion that Iran was being played by the US; that the MoU was a deception –

…and that the entirety of events since the announcement of the MoU reflected a US strategy based on the view that in the previous round of the war against Iran – [that the US and Israel] failed to achieve their objectives – necessitating a halt to the confrontation, albeit temporarily, in order to regroup and prepare “more thoroughly” for a new round when the right conditions arise.

This led to the Iranian reassessment that the Hormuz and Lebanon components constituted the vital leverage to engage in a new war as the West ramps up pressure as a holding strategy – whilst the US and Israel prepare for the next round of war.

The interim US strategy is no change to US-Israeli objectives, but rather an adjustment to their operational mechanisms to provide for certain compromises that Washington considers necessary (i.e. closer working with Turkey and via Erdogan to engage Syria’s Jolani) to reshuffle the Lebanon deck, and then to “assess how the cards lie,” as Vance outlined.

It is not certain that this new US policy will work. The world is changing rapidly. Their expected triumph of Israel over the Middle East has resulted in failure. Trump’s MoU ploy to open Hormuz likely will fail, too.

The connected war on Russia and the siege of China are faltering too – and Israel’s (until now unassailable) hold over the US is in question too. A senior US democrat, Rahm Emanuel, and potential 2028 US Democratic presidential candidate, spoke in Israel yesterday; he warned in no uncertain terms that Israel “has lost the world’s support, become a ‘regional pariah,’ [and that its] alliance with the US is ‘at a crossroads’.”

And finally, a “black swan” now can be observed swimming in increasingly sunlit waters – Eric Katz writing in Notus writes that, “a draft report inside the US Treasury Department is set to warn of the risks posed by the artificial intelligence market, likening key aspects of it to the dotcom bubble that upended the US economy when it burst in the early 2000s.”

Treasury analysts wrote –

Career Treasury analysts found that AI firms are more deeply entrenched in the US economy than their dotcom predecessors and pose significant risk to the entire system if financial conditions change, productivity goals are missed or various choke points stymie growth.

A downturn in the AI market would send shockwaves throughout the entire economic ecosystem.

A market downturn in the US – exacerbated by an energy crisis – could spell disaster for Trump’s midterm hopes.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/14/2026 - 23:25

China's Mass Production Of Dual-Use Drone Engines Fuels A Global Proliferation Crisis

China's greatest military advantage may be its ability to convert its massive civilian manufacturing base into wartime production of low-cost, one-way attack drones modeled after Iran's Shahed-136.

This is especially alarming because the U.S. defense industrial base is only beginning (read here) to prepare for a transition to wartime output, even as a global drone procurement race accelerates. Nation-states are set to stockpile millions of autonomous, low-cost weapons in the years ahead.

We have already shown readers how Chinese firms appear to be ramping up production of Shahed-style drones, with open-source footage from social media increasingly pointing to expanding production capacity.

Some scary stats on China's militaro-industrail complex's capacity:
- China casts more metal products than the next nine countries combined and >5× the US.
- Its shipbuilding capacity is ~200× the US (a total-capacity figure, not per-ship speed).
- It makes ~90% of the world's… pic.twitter.com/RcxKN4SDZZ

— Léo (@LeoKharon) July 13, 2026

The latest finding centers on the drone's powerplant: the Iranian MADO MD-550 engine, which is used throughout the Shahed family and in Russia's Geran-2 variant. MD550-type engines are also being mass produced in China and widely advertised on Chinese e-commerce platforms, including Alibaba.

The problem is not that China manufactures small aviation engines; it is that commercially available, dual-use engines can be incorporated into Shahed-style drones with limited visibility into the final buyer or end use.

The United Nations has identified the Iranian MADO-550 as the engine used in the Shahed drone family, while the U.S. Treasury has said the sanctioned Oje Parvaz Mado Nafar Company (commonly known as Mado company). 

Chinese vendors on Alibaba advertise MD550-type UAV engines in large quantities, although the listings alone do not show any connection to a Chinese state weapons program.

More importantly, the Alibaba listings are evidence of commercial availability, not proof that Beijing is deliberately supplying one-way attack drone programs. However, the listings only highlight the erosion of the boundary between civilian manufacturing and weapons production.

The real threat is that long-range strike drones can increasingly be assembled from commercially produced parts at a scale traditional export-control systems were never designed to contain. This means Shahed-style systems are likely to proliferate far beyond nation-states, spreading to proxies, criminal networks, and other threat actors.

Like this: 

• Fiber-Optic Kamikaze Drone Found In Mexico Signals New Drone Threat South Of Border

Latest evidence:

• Why Is China Advertising Insane War Drones On Facebook

The question is no longer whether these drones will reach the West, but when.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/14/2026 - 23:00

Open Borders Are A Death Sentence To Western Nations

Authored by J.B.Shurk via AmericanThinker.com,

As simmering conflicts between Western citizens and Western governments boil over the next few years, we must never forget how we got to this point: Elected officials and irremovable bureaucrats occupying permanent administrative roles have refused to respect the wishes of the citizens whom they ostensibly represent and serve.

From the United States to the United Kingdom, citizens have demanded that their governments secure national borders and end the steady flow of illegal aliens into their communities.  From France, the Netherlands, and Germany to Australia and New Zealand, citizens have demanded that their governments arrest and remove Islamic immigrants who are guilty of rape, murder, or other violent crimes.  With the exception of President Trump’s efforts to enforce immigration law and deport illegal alien criminals (despite formidable resistance from the courts, leftist NGOs, and Establishment politicians from both the Democrat and Republican Parties) in the United States, no Western official has done anything to remedy the scourge of unlawful mass invasion in a deliberate, meaningful, and effective way.  Instead, Western governments hide from their citizens the true number of illegal immigrants living among them.  Western governments hide from their citizens a full accounting of the crimes committed by foreign nationals who should never have been permitted entry in the first place.

Mass illegal immigration is not a new problem.  In the United States, President Ronald Reagan signed the Immigration Reform and Control Act into law in 1986.  Defended by both political parties as a way of combating illegal immigration while providing long-term lawbreakers legal status, it effectively awarded millions of foreign nationals amnesty.  Politicians convinced the American people to support this trade-off: In return for citizens’ reluctantly permitting the government to reward the unlawful behavior of foreign immigrants who had no right to reside in the United States, the government would protect citizens by cracking down on future illegal immigration and punishing businesses that hired illegal immigrant workers.  The U.S. government never lived up to its side of the bargain.

Instead, U.S. officials have lied to their citizens for forty additional years.  Until President Trump entered office, U.S. borders were not secured.  Businesses were rarely punished for hiring illegal aliens.  Unbeknownst to most American citizens, State and federal welfare programs continued to add illegal aliens to their taxpayer-funded dole rolls.  School districts in both cities and small towns continued to enroll illegal alien children.  Hospital emergency rooms continued to overflow with illegal alien patients seeking “free” medical care.  American jobs — especially blue-collar jobs — continued to go to illegal aliens because employers could pay foreigners less, avoid state and federal taxes, and use the threat of deportation as exploitative leverage over their workforces.  Illegal alien workers continued to place downward pressure on hourly wages.  Illegal aliens continued to place upward pressure on the costs of housing, energy, and household necessities.  

Sometime in the ‘90s, American politicians and government bureaucrats began admitting to Americans that there were roughly eleven million illegal aliens inside the United States.  For the next thirty years, politicians and bureaucrats repeated the same “eleven million” figure as if no net-increase in immigration had occurred.  Anybody living in small-town America knew this to be a demonstrable lie.  In the nineties, local school classrooms were made up almost entirely of American kids who grew up speaking English in households whose families had been living in the United States for generations.  As each year passed, those same classrooms were increasingly filled with kids whose parents had come from all over the world, and even small school districts were forced to hire staff who could attend to the needs of an increasingly foreign student body unfamiliar with basic English.  

Former Border Patrol Commander Greg Bovino has said repeatedly that there are more than one hundred million illegal aliens residing in the United States.  In other words, roughly one out of every three people living inside the borders of the U.S. is a foreign national unlawfully here.  If those foreign nationals are employed, then they are likely guilty of identity fraud and committing a number of additional state and federal crimes.  Of those committing identity fraud, many are using social security numbers stolen from American citizens.  Illegal aliens who steal Americans’ identities adversely affect citizens’ credit scores, tax obligations with the IRS, and background checks.  Illegal aliens who fraudulently vote by claiming to be American citizens steal votes from actual American citizens.  Foreign nationals who illegally vote in American elections deny American citizens legitimate representation and undermine Americans’ constitutional form of self-government.

In 1986, lawmakers from both parties promised an end to illegal immigration.  Instead, tens of millions of new illegal aliens have continued to arrive.  In return for grudgingly acceding to the government’s desire to provide a one-time gift of amnesty to those foreigners whose first act in the country was to break our immigration laws, Americans continued to lose jobs, pay more for everything, and be defrauded by identity theft.  Even worse, they were forced to watch as foreign cultures transformed their schools and towns.  They were forced to watch as foreigners successfully ran for political office and pushed foreign policies and beliefs upon American citizens.  

New York City has a Muslim mayor from Uganda who has been a naturalized U.S. citizen for only eight years.  Minneapolis has a Muslim member of Congress from Somalia who became a naturalized U.S. citizen at the age of seventeen.  Roughly 4% of Congress are foreign-born naturalized citizens, while 15% of Congress have at least one immigrant parent.  A third of the judges occupying prestigious and powerful positions on the D.C. District Courts were born in foreign nations.  

These numbers are going in one direction — up!

When President Barack Obama spoke enthusiastically about “fundamentally transforming” the United States, this is what he had in mind.  If you invite third-world communists to break into your country, pretty soon your government will be filled with third-world communists, too.  Americans were never consulted about this “fundamental transformation.”  Politicians and bureaucrats steamrolled American citizens with tall tales of foreign immigrants fleeing violence in their home countries and seeking safety in the United States.  Nobody tried to explain why all the foreigners fleeing persecution in their home countries still wave their national flags in American neighborhoods and at American sporting events.  Nobody tried to explain why foreigners from all over the world couldn’t obtain asylum in countries closer to home.  Nobody tried to explain why so many foreigners claiming asylum in the United States continue to visit their friends and families in their native countries. 

No American ever voted for this radical transformation.  No politician or government bureaucrat respected American citizens enough to seek their consent.  Nevertheless, politicians and bureaucrats continue to lie to the American people by pretending that foreign nationals are not taking over their society.  Because they despise American citizens, government officials tell obvious lies without shame.

Where is all this shameless and callous disregard for the will of American citizens headed?  It is headed toward the same dead end already appearing in other Western nations such as the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, and France: Increasingly, Western peoples are electing political representatives who promise to end divisive and deadly mass immigration policies.  The more that government officials undermine their citizens’ electoral will, the more that citizens are turning to the streets to be heard.  

Peaceful forms of civil disobedience are evolving into violent altercations with police. 

Instead of listening to their citizens, Western governments call them racists and censor their online speech.  At some point, citizens will conclude that their governments have become threats to their security and way of life.  Governments will lose their legitimacy.  Western countries will become battlefields.  Open borders guarantee that Western nations will die.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/14/2026 - 22:35

Fast Food Giant Under Investigation Over Explosive Diarrhea Outbreak: Report

Federal and state health officials are reportedly zeroing in on Taco Bell restaurants as a possible culprit in one of the biggest parasite outbreaks to slam the U.S. in years, a nasty bug that turns your guts into a nonstop disaster zone of explosive diarrhea and misery.

More than 4,000 people have already been sickened, the vast majority of them in Michigan, where victims are enduring days of gut-wrenching, bathroom-racing hell that has hospitalized at least 80 people so far.

The Washington Post reports that officials are probing whether contaminated fresh produce at the fast-food chain helped spread the Cyclospora parasite, which hitches a ride in feces-tainted veggies. No smoking gun has nailed Taco Bell or any single supplier yet, but the chain has yanked lettuce, cilantro, onions, pico de gallo, and guacamole from some Detroit-area locations after a nationwide recall notice surfaced last week.

Taco Bell insists it is playing it safe and putting customers first.

"The health and safety of our guests is our top priority," the company said in a statement obtained by the Post. "Public health officials have not confirmed a link to Taco Bell or any specific ingredient, so we have voluntarily pulled some items at select spots as a precaution while authorities continue their review."

Michigan is ground zero for the outbreak and is getting absolutely hammered, with a staggering 3,300-plus cases and hundreds more piling up daily as state health officials repeatedly flag leafy lettuce and salad greens as the leading suspect after interviewing more than 1,000 sick patients.

"Current results point to lettuce or salad greens as a potential source," Michigan's health department warned Monday. Meanwhile, federal officials at the CDC and FDA are being far more cautious, insisting there is no confirmed single multistate outbreak and that the numbers are not yet definitively unusual even as they log 145 cases across 17 states outside Michigan, along with 20 hospitalizations.

As we previously noted, Cyclospora cayetanensis is a microscopic parasite that loves hitching rides on fresh produce. Once it gets inside you it unleashes watery diarrhea, vicious cramps, vomiting, nausea, exhaustion, and fever that can drag on for days or even weeks if left untreated.

One victim, Cristy Cooper, recently spoke from her hospital bed to the New York Post about the nightmare that started June 25.

"This is worse than any flu I have ever gotten. It is just so miserable," she said. "I am worn out from it. I really am."

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/14/2026 - 22:10

New Women's Athletics Guidelines Crack Down On 'Sexualizing' Camera Angles

Authored by Calum Patterson via Dexerto,

New broadcasting guidelines have been introduced in Europe to prevent women athletes from being sexualized through camera angles and slow-motion replays.

The European Broadcasting Union partnered with European Athletics to release new guidance for women's athletics coverage, with broadcasters urged to focus on performance and technical ability.

The guidelines warn against lingering shots of athletes' bodies, low camera angles that capture revealing views, and slow-motion replays that offer little technical or storytelling value.

"The sexualization of women athletes through selective camera angles and editing choices continues to be a significant concern across many sports broadcasts," said Glen Killane, Executive Director of EBU Sports.

"Lingering shots on bodies, low-angle cameras that capture revealing views, and excessive slow-motion replays that serve no technical or storytelling purpose are among the issues observed in the media coverage of women's athletics competitions today."

Broadcasters urged to avoid 'compromising' shots

The 23-page Raising the Bar document uses examples from real broadcasts to highlight potentially "compromising" shots across high jump, pole vault, long jump, and running events.

Broadcasters are advised to avoid tight shots from behind athletes, low cameras underneath competitors, and certain slow-motion replays. Instead, wider angles showing run-ups, take-offs, and technique are encouraged.

British Olympic pole vaulter Holly Bradshaw said some athletes have even become distracted by camera positions during competitions.

"Many athletes, myself included have been in competitive scenarios where they are more focused on the cameras instead of their own performance," she said.

Bradshaw also revealed she has received social media abuse and seen "inappropriate videos" of herself and fellow athletes created from slow-motion competition footage.

The guidelines are now available to broadcasters covering women's athletics, with the EBU saying coverage should focus on athletes' "technical ability and compelling storytelling."

Never forget. https://t.co/q5Fzz1gp6G pic.twitter.com/CPthfFWxBx

— Oilfield Rando (@Oilfield_Rando) July 14, 2026

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/14/2026 - 21:45

Israeli Officials Try To Push US Refueling Tankers Out Of Ben Gurion Airport Amid Disruptions

Immense controversy has remained centered on Ben Gurion International Airport as dozens of giant US Air Force refueling tankers have essentially taken over the main Israeli flight hub for many months, since the start of Trump's Operation Epic Fury. Reports also say it has cost the airport hundreds of millions of dollars at this point.

The Israeli government itself seems to be divided, and there's been outrage among the general public as the presence of the American tankers has blocked and slowed regular commercial flights, leading to the recent cancelations of many passengers' tickets, but with an expected tens of thousands more cancelations to come.

On Tuesday the simmering controversy erupted again, and has even raised the possibility of introducing fresh tensions with Washington, after Israeli Transportation Minister Miri Regev announced that the government will not allow more than 20 US refueling tankers to be parked at Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport at any given time.

Regev specifically addressed the domestic public's concerns over air travel. "Hundreds of thousands of plane tickets were bought by Israelis to fly and enjoy their summer vacation," the official said. "We promised that we will enable commercial flights and we will not cancel a single ticket because of American refueling planes."

Haaretz had already by June tallied that "Some 75 U.S. refueling planes occupy more than half of Ben-Gurion Airport's parking spots and fill up takeoff and landing slots" and cites airport officials who warn: "For lack of a solution, 1.5 million passengers may have their flights canceled this summer."

Anadolu Agency

"Therefore I have given instructions that we will not allow any US refueling tankers to land at Ben Gurion Airport beyond the agreed number of 20 planes and the remaining planes will land at Air Force bases," Regev adds.

Israeli media notes that the crisis has been building:

The directive comes after the Israel Airports Authority warned that unless more US aircraft are removed from the country’s main international air gateway, as many as 50,000 flight tickets could be at risk of cancellation in the coming weeks.

The monthslong presence of US military aircraft at Ben Gurion Airport amid the Iran war has been preventing a full return to normal commercial flight operations, while also driving up operational costs for local airlines.

It's a deep irony that Israelis are increasingly complaining the United States military has effectively taken over Israel's international travel hub.

Media reports have been going so far as to call Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport a "US military base" - as the prominent local newspaper Haaretz does:

The US refueling aircraft and other military assets, which have been stationed at Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport for months, are causing congestion and may result in flight cancellations, Israeli officials and media reports have said, calling the facility a "US military base."

That prior report complained that "U.S. Air Force refueling aircraft have been stationed at Ben Gurion International Airport for three months, occupying parking spots, taking up takeoff and landing slots and worsening congestion at Israel's main international gateway since the war with Iran erupted in late February, officials say."

Again, a central irony here is that it has largely been US military assets protecting Israel the whole time, going all the way back from last year's June war, from Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks.

The U.S. has reportedly paused the withdrawal of its aerial refueling aircraft from Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport as tensions with Iran continue to escalate.

The Times of Israel, citing the Israel Airports Authority, reports that the tankers continue to occupy parking space… pic.twitter.com/ag8FY7ETET

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) July 14, 2026

The Netanyahu government is perceived by many to be a prime reason the US and Iran are at war in the first place, and so the Pentagon might argue that it's only fair that Israel host its large fleet of military planes and refueling aircraft.

Iran's large retaliatory strikes on US airbases in the Gulf region during the opening weeks of the conflict essentially forced the Pentagon to move its expensive, large aerial assets much further back from the front lines of the war. Previously several parked tankers at Gulf facilities were destroyed or damaged.

It still remains unclear whether the Transportation Minister's directive is approved by Netanyahu's office. Likely all it will take is one angry phone call from President Trump and the order could be reversed.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/14/2026 - 21:20

The Lockdown Disaster Must Not Be Forgiven

Authored by Ian Miller via The Brownstone Institute,

Six years since “15 Days to Slow the Spread", data shows why our policies didn't work...

That policy has to have been one of the most disastrous in world history, created by “experts” who took all established pre-pandemic planning documents and tossed them out the window at the first opportunity.

It was a policy based on inaccurate reports out of China, which claimed that their lockdowns effectively stamped out transmission of Covid-19 within a matter of days.

It was a policy that ignored solid research – from established epidemiologists like Dr. Jay Bhattacharya – which found that the coronavirus had already spread much more widely than previously realized.

It must be noted forever that lockdowns and the associated mask mandates, vaccine passports, and school closures continued in some places for several years. The ramifications of those wretched policies will be quite literally endless. It’s not an exaggeration to say that lockdowns, our policies, and responses have quite literally changed the course of world history.

One would think that there would definitely be a concerted effort to understand whether such policies were effective or not. Whether approaching respiratory viruses with authoritarian crackdowns on businesses and schools was necessary to save lives.

Yet six years later, there’s unfortunately very little interest in examining those questions. And when you understand the data from Sweden, you will see exactly why.

Study on Swedish Approach to Covid Shows Lockdowns Didn’t Work

A study published in PubMed examined the Swedish approach to Covid policy, relative to its European counterparts, primarily because Sweden did not rely on lockdowns in response to the pandemic, but instead used “voluntary and sustainable mitigation recommendations,” the study says.

Despite a “majority of Swedes” supporting those policies, “this approach faced rapid and continuous criticism.”

That criticism came primarily from public health figures such as, surprise, surprise, Dr. Anthony Fauci, who criticized Sweden repeatedly for going against the herd.

“You’ve compared us to Sweden, and there are a lot of differences,” he said during a Senate Committee hearing in September 2020. “But compare Sweden’s death rate to other comparable Scandinavian countries. It’s worse. So I don’t think it’s appropriate to compare Sweden with us.”

“If you look at Sweden, they are in some trouble,” Fauci claimed on Good Morning America in late 2020. “They are starting to see that their death rate is much higher than the surrounding countries of Norway, Denmark, and Finland…They’re starting to see now that they’re having to rethink some of the things they did.”

This was, of course, not true. They did not “rethink” their strategy of light touch recommendations over lockdowns. And comparing Sweden exclusively to its neighbors is an absurd misdirection that no other country was subjected to. But Fauci, obviously never one for honesty or intellectual integrity, represented many public health figures who were anxious to see Sweden fail.

Yet as this research shows, reality was precisely the opposite.

The study explains that Sweden received criticism for “not legally enforcing mask-wearing in public spaces,” as well as keeping schools open and “being too permissive” with its policies. All the things that we were told were necessary to stop Covid and save lives. The researchers tested these statements using excess mortality data and stringency indices to compare Sweden across the whole of Europe, not just its neighbors.

They chose excess mortality because, unlike Covid specific measurements, it’s less subject to bias, differences in testing, and counting, and individual definitions of Covid-caused outcomes. It also accounts for deaths that “could potentially be indirectly attributed to the negative effects of strict lockdown measures and the overall strain on healthcare systems, leading to reduced access to healthcare for other diseases, among other factors.”

Turns out that what they discovered was that Sweden vastly outperformed the rest of Europe from 2020-2022, with outcomes that were remarkably similar to the other Nordic countries.

“Among 42 European countries, the cumulative excess all-cause mortality from January 2020 to December 2022 ranged from 46 (Luxembourg) to 1,080 (Bulgaria) deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, with a median of 351/100,000,” they write. “In Sweden, the excess mortality rate of 158/100,000 was among the lowest, ranked 37th among 42 countries, and not very different from other Nordic countries: Norway (129), Denmark (97), and Finland (228).”

So why did Sweden underperform in 2020 relative to their neighbors? Likely due, as the study explains, to “mortality displacement due to low all-cause mortality in 2019,” as well as “poorly organized older adult care structures.”

What does this mean? Essentially, there were significantly fewer deaths from all causes in Sweden in 2019, meaning there were more extremely elderly people alive in 2020 that were susceptible to severe outcomes from Covid. This is reflected in the massive age gradient with Covid-associated deaths. In Sweden, “~40% of the COVID-19-associated deaths were among patients in nursing homes,” the study says, “and 67% of all COVID-19 deaths were among individuals above 80 years of age, representing 10% of all deaths in that age group.”

For younger age groups, Covid was mostly a non-issue. “COVID-19 deaths below 50 years of age represented only 1.2% of all COVID deaths, including 21 individuals below 20 years of age, mostly with underlying co-morbidities, representing 1% of all deaths in that age group.”

Effectively, Covid ravaged extremely elderly people, while those under 50, despite the lack of mask mandates and lockdowns, saw very limited impact.

Sweden’s Lack of Lockdowns Led to Better Outcomes

Equally important, they examined the “stringency index” for countries across Europe, then made a data table comparing that stringency to excess mortality from 2020-2022. Effectively, how strict were a country’s policies, and how much did that matter to reducing excess mortality?

Turns out, there’s a definitive, resounding answer which this chart demonstrates perfectly. Countries are plotted based on their stringency index, the x-axis, and excess mortality, the y-axis. The line demonstrates the trend in mortality rates, and there’s virtually no relationship between the severity of policy and preventing excess mortality.

The R-squared, effectively the relationship between stringency index and excess mortality, is just 0.14. The closer to 1, the more related stringency is to outcomes. This is 0.14.

Countries like Italy and Spain were some of the strictest when it came to lockdowns and mandates, yet ranked near the top in excess mortality rates. The UK, Portugal, the Netherlands and others were significantly more stringent and also had demonstrably worse outcomes. Denmark was the second least strict country and had the best outcomes, at least in this examination.

What does this tell us? Well, put simply, Fauci was wrong. Sweden did not underperform relative to its neighbors. It did significantly better than the rest of Europe, and of course, the United States. Lockdowns and stringency were not related, whatsoever, to reducing excess mortality. They never mandated masks, one of his chief policy recommendations, and outperformed other countries like Germany which imposed N95-level mandates for months on end.

This is a clear repudiation of the lockdown model. Which is precisely why Sweden’s example is deliberately being ignored today.

Because learning the actual results of these historically bad policies requires humility, accountability, and honesty, all qualities that many in public health are truly incapable of possessing.

Republished from the author’s Substack

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/14/2026 - 20:55

New York's Millionaire Exodus Is Costing Billions In Lost Revenue

Mayor Zohran Mamdani stood outside Ken Griffin's $238 million Manhattan penthouse in April and declared victory. "When I ran for mayor, I said I was going to tax the rich. Well, today we're taxing the rich," he said in a social media video marking the debut of New York City's first pied-à-terre tax, an annual fee on luxury properties worth more than $5 million whose owners do not live in the city full time. He promised the tax would raise "at least $500 million directly for the city," money he said would fund free child care, cleaner streets, and safer neighborhoods. "This is a fundamentally unfair system that hurts working New Yorkers," Mamdani said. "Now it's coming to an end."

BREAKING: Mamdani announces new tax on all property worth over $5 million if the owner doesn’t live in NYC full time pic.twitter.com/qN7pU3xEDg

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) April 15, 2026

Three months later, a new study suggests the mayor picked an odd moment to celebrate.

The Citizen Budget Commission published an analysis Monday, finding that New York's shrinking share of the nation's millionaires cost the state an estimated $10.7 billion in lost personal income tax revenue in 2022 alone. New York's share of the country's millionaires fell from 12.7 percent in 2010 to 8.7 percent in 2022, the steepest decline of any state over that period. Had New York simply held its 2010 share, the Commission concluded, the state would have collected roughly $10.7 billion more in personal income tax that year.

So Mamdani, who took office in January, had inherited a tax base already showing signs of flight. His pied-à-terre push targets exactly the kind of high earners the CBC says have been leaving in growing numbers, and critics view the timing as more provocation than plan. Gov. Kathy Hochul, who is running for reelection in November, has stopped short of backing an outright tax increase on wealthy New Yorkers this year, though she supports the pied-à-terre concept for luxury second homes in the city.

"In New York, the top 1% of earners pay about 45% of all state income taxes in any given year, so New York's revenue is very reliant on high earners to stay in New York, and that has been a challenge in recent years," said Jared Walczak, an economist and senior fellow at the Tax Foundation think tank, told the New York Post.

Walczak said city-level measures like Mamdani's cannot fix the underlying problem, since any meaningful tax change requires action in Albany. He also warned that continued hikes combined with more competitive alternatives elsewhere could accelerate departures.

Abir Mandel, senior state policy analyst at the Tax Foundation, said New York currently ranks last in the nation for tax competitiveness. She pointed to Elon Musk relocating his companies from California to Texas as the kind of decision New York risks inviting without reform, cautioning that the state will otherwise struggle to attract both population and business. Of Wall Street's outsized role in propping up state revenue, Mandel offered a blunt assessment. "Wall Street is the golden goose," she said. "But for how long?"

The CBC report traces the stagnation back well before Mamdani ever took office. Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo raised income taxes on high earners during the COVID pandemic, and Hochul now oversees Medicaid spending, which is on pace to reach $58 billion by the end of the decade. Ken Girardin, a research fellow at the Manhattan Institute, pointed to the state's 2019 rent-control overhaul and its green-energy mandate as a one-two punch that reduced housing supply and raised energy costs. "Albany is directly responsible for the stagnation," he said.

New York has lost more residents to every other state than it has gained from any of them, with Florida and Texas among the top destinations for departing New Yorkers, and that's a huge problem.

Justin Wilcox, executive director of Upstate United, called the study's findings hard to ignore. "It's difficult to not be alarmed by this data," he said. "With this CBC tool, Upstate New Yorkers can see for themselves the devastating impacts of Albany's policies - businesses failing to grow, population decline, and the loss of revenue. NYS needs to course correct now before it's too late and we become permanently entrenched in a cycle of fewer people."

Asked about the study on Monday during an unrelated event, Mamdani dismissed concerns that higher earners will flee the city, arguing that New York gained millionaires after past tax increases by Albany. He defended his broader philosophy without addressing the CBC's specific findings. "I've been very clear about the fact that we live in the wealthiest city in the wealthiest country in the history of the world, and it's unacceptable that one in four New Yorkers are living in poverty, and I believe that the wealthiest can do a little bit more to ensure that everyone can afford to live here," he said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/14/2026 - 18:00

Offload Risks Onto The Bottom 90% And Immiseration Follows

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The underlying story of the past 50 years has been the offloading of risk onto workers and consumers.

On my map of how the world works, we start with structures of control that distribute the good stuff--resources, assets, income and power--and the bad stuff: costs, losses and risks. As I explained in The US Economy In a Nutshell: Privatize the Gains, Socialize the Costs, the current arrangement distributes the gains to the top 10% and the costs and risks to the bottom 90% via privatizing the gains and socializing--i.e. dumping them onto the biosphere and the public--the costs and losses.

This follows a power-law distribution: the few at the top reap most of the gains, and the leftovers, scraps and crumbs are distributed in descending order, with most of what's left going to the top 9.5% and a diminishing dribble is scattered over the lower 90%, so that by the time we get to the bottom half of households, 170 million people own a grand total of 2.5% of the nation's financial assets, while the top 0.1% own 16.6%--6.6X the bottom 50%.

A key mechanism in this wildly asymmetric distribution of gains and costs is the system favors capital over wages. As the charts below illustrate, the financial gains go to the owners of capital, and since ownership of capital is highly concentrated, these few owners siphon up the vast majority of the gains.

One way to understand how the current arrangement favors capital over wages is to reverse the tax liabilities of capital and wages. Employers and employees pay 15.3% of every dollar of wages in Social Security / Medicare taxes, plus income taxes that quickly rise to 22%, for a total tax rate of 37.3% on wages. (Note self-employed people like myself pay the full 15.3% ourselves, as we're both employer and employee.)

Capital gains are taxed at 20%, but only when the asset is sold, so the wealthy borrow against their unrealized gains and live off this borrowed money to avoid selling and having to pay tax on capital gains. And since the system depends on debt to survive, the interest on debt is deductible, giving the wealthy borrowers a tax deduction for avoiding capital gains.

Now imagine all capital gains, realized or unrealized, were taxed at 37% and the first $80,000 of wages were tax-free. The median wage is around $80,000, hence my picking that number. As for the hue and cry about unrealized capital gains being taxed, that's easily addressed: unrealized gains in primary-residence owner-occupied homes and retirement accounts would be exempted. Every other gain made playing in the casino would be taxed.

Reversing the asymmetry of tax liabilities would dramatically alter the distribution of gains and costs. Wages have lost ground for 50+ years, and the favoring of capital is a key driver of this decline in the share of the economy that's distributed to wage earners.

Half the nation's households--170 million people own a grand total of 2.5% of the nation's financial assets:

The winner-take-most arrangement favoring capital:

Another key driver is the offloading of risk from owners to consumers and workers, a perverse process that has been obscured by incremental degradation. Risk is a strange phenomenon that defies easy definition. Risk isn't a direct loss or cost; it's the probability of losses and costs arising in what appears on the surface to be a stable arrangement.

Consider the stunning decline in the quality of durable goods such as appliances, and global industry adopting a laughably valueless one-year warranty across the board. Appliances that routinely lasted 30 years before "Progress" took the reins now routinely fail in 3+ years.

In the good old days before "Progress" took the reins, manufacturers absorbed the risk of premature failure of the goods they produced. Now this risk has been offloaded onto consumers, who are now forced to buy "extended warranties" as the only means of mitigating the risk they now carry of premature failure.

This is in effect a form of extortion: "nice refrigerator you got there, too bad it's at risk of breaking." Well, if current manufacturers had the same standards as previous generations, we wouldn't need "extended warranties." Welcome to the Mafia Economy: low quality goods and services force "upgrades," i.e. extortion.

Consider the offloading of risk onto workers. Employment other than casual labor once included healthcare insurance and other basic benefits. In the "gig economy" of contract employment and gigs, the worker is now responsible for paying their Social Security / Medicare taxes, healthcare insurance and retirement contributions.

The decline of hourly wages is another offloading of risk onto the worker. The percentage of workers paid by the hour has declined in favor of salaried positions with open-ended demands on workers: where hourly workers get paid for hours on the job, salaried workers are now on the hook for work beyond a conventional 8-hour work shift.

Then there's the immense mass of risk and labor that's been offloaded onto consumers and workers as shadow work, often the result of having to fix failures in goods and services that were once the responsibility of the provider or employer and have been dumped on consumers and workers. This is a topic I've often addressed.

This Is Why You're Drowning in Busywork: We have been told that A.I. will take people's jobs. What no one mentions is that many of those jobs are landing on us. The A.I. revolution involves a huge transfer of labor-- not from worker to machine but from worker to consumer. (nytimes.com, paywalled)

Another source of risk is the dependence on debt to fund the lifestyles we deserve: as the purchasing power of wages has declined, the easy "solution" is to fill the gap between what earnings can buy and what we want / need / expect / deserve with borrowed money.

As we all know, debt comes with risk, as falling behind greases the slide to default, bankruptcy and ruin. 27% interest rates on credit cards steepen the slide into a cliff: one missed payment can trigger a cascade of events that cannot be reversed. This is why I often observe that fewer bad things can happen if you have no debt.

Last but far from least, is the current arrangement's dependence on serial credit-asset bubbles as the sole driver of "growth", a dependence that has led to a casino economy in which wage earners lose ground and in desperation turn to gambling as their last-ditch hope of gaining ground.

But despite 24/7 assurances that "this isn't a bubble," all bubbles pop with devastating consequences for those who believed the assurances of those operating the casino.

The underlying story of the past 50 years has been the offloading of risk onto workers and consumers, with the inevitable consequences being higher costs and losses leading to impoverishment and immiseration. We're frogs in water that's getting measurably hotter, and it's getting harder to muster the means to jump out of the simmering pot.

*  *  *

My book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free). Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/14/2026 - 16:20

Venezuela's Oil Revival Faces A Critical Services Bottleneck

Authored by Rystad Energy via OilPrice.com,

• Venezuela could increase crude production by about 194,000 bpd by late 2028, with most growth coming from existing producing fields rather than new discoveries.

• International oil companies led by Chevron are expected to deliver nearly two-thirds of the forecast production increase through brownfield investments.

• The biggest obstacles are operational, including drilling rigs, diluent supplies, infrastructure upgrades, and a competitive fiscal regime capable of attracting long-term investment.

Venezuela's upstream industry has entered a new phase. Following sweeping hydrocarbon reforms and broader geopolitical developments in early 2026, the conversation has shifted from whether the country can reopen its oil sector to whether it can successfully execute a meaningful production recovery. The country's resource potential has never been in doubt. The greater challenge now lies in converting policy momentum into sustained operational growth.

Rystad Energy estimates Venezuela's crude production could increase by approximately 17%, or around 194,000 barrels per day (bpd), between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the fourth quarter of 2028. Importantly, this growth is expected to come primarily from existing producing assets rather than large-scale new discoveries, highlighting that operational execution, not resource availability, will determine the pace of recovery.

Near-term production growth will be dominated by heavier crude grades. Around three-quarters of Venezuela's output through 2028 is expected to come from heavy, extra-heavy crude and bitumen, with the Orinoco Oil Belt accounting for roughly 60% of total production. This makes access to diluents, workover activity, infill drilling, and mature field management considerably more important than reserve additions over the next several years.

Venezuela upstream figure 1

International operators are driving the recovery

International oil companies (IOCs) are expected to contribute nearly two-thirds of Venezuela's forecast production increase through 2028. Chevron remains the largest contributor, followed by Repsol, Eni, Maha Energy and Maurel & Prom. Most of this growth is expected to come from expanding production at existing joint ventures, reflecting renewed investment following regulatory changes and sanctions relief rather than greenfield developments.

Chevron continues to occupy a particularly strategic position. Recent portfolio adjustments have strengthened its exposure to the Orinoco Oil Belt, while future production growth is expected to rely on brownfield optimization, infill drilling and the phased development of Ayacucho 8. Beyond Chevron, companies such as Eni and Repsol continue to play a dual role in both Venezuela's crude and natural gas sectors through assets including the Cardón IV block and the giant Perla gas field.

However, international participation remains highly selective. Companies continue to balance the opportunity presented by Venezuela's vast resource base against fiscal uncertainty, operational complexity and long-term investment risk.

Execution, not geology, remains the key constraint

While policy reforms have improved the investment outlook, they do not eliminate the operational bottlenecks that have constrained production for years.

Sustained production growth will require continuous access to diluents, higher drilling activity, extensive workover campaigns, improved infrastructure and significantly greater rig availability. These operational requirements represent the critical link between resource potential and realized production.

Fiscal competitiveness also remains an important consideration. International operators have indicated that future capital commitments will depend on further improvements to Venezuela's fiscal framework, particularly around royalty rates and taxation. Lower project breakeven costs through more competitive fiscal terms could materially improve investment economics and encourage broader participation across the sector.

Oilfield services could become the industry's defining bottleneck

Perhaps the greatest challenge facing Venezuela's recovery lies beyond the upstream operators themselves. The Venezuelan Oil Ministry has identified a requirement for 93 active drilling rigs by 2028, a significant increase from current activity levels. Achieving this target would require a phased expansion involving reactivating domestic rigs, refurbishing idle equipment, and eventually importing additional rigs from international markets.

This creates substantial opportunities for drilling contractors and oilfield service providers but also highlights the scale of the execution challenge. Companies must balance equipment mobilization costs, contract duration requirements, and country risk before committing capital.

Local contractors have begun reactivating existing fleets, while international service providers remain more cautious, waiting for greater evidence that recent policy reforms will translate into a stable, commercially attractive operating environment. As a result, rebuilding operational capacity may ultimately prove just as important as attracting upstream investment.

Venezuela upstream figure 2

The next phase depends on implementation

The 2026 Hydrocarbons Law represents one of the most significant structural reforms to Venezuela's upstream sector in decades. By expanding opportunities for private participation and introducing greater fiscal flexibility, the legislation has created a more attractive framework for future investment.

Yet legislation alone cannot restore production. The speed of implementation, the stability of fiscal policy, continued sanctions relief, and the industry's ability to rebuild operational capacity will ultimately determine whether Venezuela can translate ambition into sustained output growth.

For investors and operators alike, the opportunity is considerable. But the country's upstream revival will depend less on the size of its resource base than on its ability to consistently execute across drilling, infrastructure, services, and investment policy. That execution gap, not geology, is likely to define Venezuela's production trajectory over the remainder of the decade.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/14/2026 - 15:45

Lucid Calls Bankruptcy Report "Completely False" As Shares Stage V-Shaped Recovery

Summary: 

• Lucid Exec Calls Bankruptcy Report 'Fake News' 
• Lucid Reponds, Denies AlixPartners Has Recommended Bankruptcy Route  
• Lucid Crashes On Report It's Weighing A Take-Private Or Bankruptcy

Lucid PR Head Calls Report "Completely False" 

Nick Twork, Lucid's chief communications officer, took to X in late-afternoon trading to deny Electric-Vehicles.com's report about a potential bankruptcy, stating that the "company has sufficient liquidity to carry its operations well into next year, as recently published in its last quarterly filings, and it has not formed any special board committee to explore the scenarios reported today."

Twork stated:

The rumors are completely false. The company has sufficient liquidity to carry its operations well into next year, as recently published in its last quarterly filings, and it has not formed any special Board committee to explore the scenarios reported today.  Our focus is on improving execution, strengthening operations, and positioning Lucid to realize the full potential of its technology, products, and innovation. AlixPartners is assisting us in that and nothing else and has not recommended bankruptcy to management or the Board. We

$LCID The rumors are completely false. The company has sufficient liquidity to carry its operations well into next year, as recently published in its last quarterly filings, and it has not formed any special Board committee to explore the scenarios reported today. Our focus is…

— Nick Twork (@ntwork) July 14, 2026

Shares crashed nearly 50% at one point today and, in the final hour of trading, staged a V-shaped recovery. 

Bloomberg data show Lucid is heavily shorted, with 37.22% short, or about 63.6 million shares.

One can only assume that short sellers used the crash to cover some of their bearish positions.

Lucid Denies Report 

Lucid responded to Electric-Vehicles.com's report, stating that restructuring adviser AlixPartners has not recommended bankruptcy.

Bloomberg headline:

• LUCID SAYS ALIXPARTNERS HAS NOT RECOMMENDED BANKRUPTCY

Electric-Vehicles.com's report did mention that another strategic option would be a take-private transaction.

Here are Lucid's top shareholders:

Lucid Crashes On Report It's Weighing A Take-Private Or Bankruptcy

Shares of struggling EV maker Lucid plunged as much as 49% after auto-industry news website Electric-Vehicles.com reported that the company is working with restructuring adviser AlixPartners to evaluate strategic options, including a potential take-private transaction or a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.

Lucid (LCID) considering going private or chapter 11, according to https://t.co/lDDwzdDPdL

LUCID DOWN 45%

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 14, 2026

Lucid EV

Here's more from the report:

According to the sources who spoke on condition of anonymity because the review is strictly confidential, AlixPartners is urging the board to run one more round of restructuring in the United States and Europe, and to narrow the company's focus onto its Gravity SUV.

. . .

One person close to the matter told EV that the two starker questions, whether Lucid should be taken private or seek Chapter 11 protection, are among the scenarios the adviser has been asked to weigh.

Neither, the person stressed, is a decision the board has taken.

Shares were halved in late-afternoon trading in New York... Multiple trading halts were seen. 

How long until Lucid denies the report?

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/14/2026 - 15:41

IRGC Vows 'Not A Drop Of Oil & Gas Will Be Exported' From Region Amid Sustained Cross-Gulf Fighting Summary:

• Iran-US fighting is sustained but in tit-for-tat pace, with new reported strikes across the Gulf.
• Trump declares FULL blockade on Iranian ports, while IRGC asserts 'wartime control' of Hormuz.
• Trump drops 20% transit fee plan; oil prices ease.
• Multiple tanker attacks over past day again disrupt shipping & cause casualties.
• Regional conflict expands with reported Houthi missiles on Saudi Arabia.

//--> //--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Yes 12% · No 89%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

IRGC: Iran to 'Control Entire Strait in Wartime'

Amid ongoing cross-Gulf attacks today between Iranian and US forces, the IRGC says they targeted enemy weapons and parts storages in Bahrain and Kuwait. This after the US appeared to attack some critical Iranian infrastructure on coastal islands.

The IRGC has issued a fresh statement via state media on Tuesday, saying that "as long as the US evil stays in the region, not a drop of oil and gas will be exported from the region." It said further, per the press release:

• US aggression will have no result other than delaying the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Targeted drone ramp in Kuwait's Ali Al Salem air base; today's attacks in response to US attacks on Iran.

ABC is meanwhile reporting during the mid-afternoon (US time) that American airstrikes on Iran have been underway for the last couple of course. And yet still, Iran's IRIB has said that the Islamic Republic "must control the entire Hormuz Strait in wartime". The region is being plunged back into full-fledged war, also as fighting between the Saudis and Houthis in Yemen appears to be breaking out.

Footage of a coalition Patriot surface-to-air interceptor self-destructing over Bahrain this evening during an Iranian missile attack. pic.twitter.com/Mo7Sx66Rxn

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 14, 2026

Morning warnings from Tehran late Tuesday: Iran's deputy foreign minister says if the US thinks its military attacks and blockade will force them to request negotiations, it's making a mistake.

Trump Backs Off 20% Fee Plan For Hormuz, Asserts 'FULL Blockade' 

It's the return of another TACO Tuesday as President Trump in a lengthy Truth Social missive appears to have reversed his plan to collect a 20% of cargo fee for international vessels wishing to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

"Oil is flowing like never before," he began (except it's not...), before writing, "Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States. Those Investments will be MASSIVE but, at the same time, extraordinarily good for them, and their future." He echoed the same in follow-up with reporters at the White House:

Trump on Strait of Hormuz fees:

I was called by different people, different countries — kings, emirs, and all of the people that we all know.

They said we'd love to do it a different way. We'd love to invest in the United States — billions and billions of dollars. And continue… pic.twitter.com/MHFmQfhxVy

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 14, 2026

So Gulf allies, and likely officials within his own cabinet, have talked Trump out of the 20% collection scheme idea, which would have likely in the end just shifted leverage back over to Iran, given its own much cheaper passage protocol scheme.

US OIL PARES GAINS, WTI TRADES NEAR $78/BBL

Oil prices decline on the stated reversal in plans:

...amid emerging reports of fresh Iranian attacks on Kuwait:

Smoke columns can be seen in Kuwait near the Iraqi border. https://t.co/FyMw2W4qBD pic.twitter.com/hx2lR04kN4

— Tabz (@TabzLIVE) July 14, 2026

The battle for Hormuz has ramped up after the United States has undertaken three consecutive nights of major bombing raids against Iranian targets.

All the while President Trump is said to be "very serious" about his plan to impose a 20% toll on cargo transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, a Semafor report says, citing a White House official who says the president has desired such a plan for months. Both warring sides are insisting that it is their side alone which will be 'guardian' over the strait.

AFP/Getty Images Iran FM Trolls Trump Toll Scheme

Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi took some jabs at the proposed US plan soon after Trump unveiled it on Truth Social.

"POTUS is absolutely right. Whoever provides secure and safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated for this service," Araghchi wrote on X. "20% is of course too much. We will be fair," he added.

Below: ongoing reports that the Houthis are entering the war after Monday missile attacks on the kingdom:

Media: Abha Airport in Saudi Arabia is out of service after being completely destroyed by Houthi shelling. pic.twitter.com/uYp1AsWCx0

— Rojava Network (@RojavaNetwork) July 13, 2026

The same day, a clip of Secretary of State Marco Rubio from late June insisting that "no country" can extract tolls went viral. "That's the law. It's an international waterway. No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway," Rubio said.

"That's existing international law. That's the way it is in international waterways all over the world and that's the way we'll expect it'll be here." He added: "I think all the countries in this region would agree."

Meanwhile Iranian sources continue to warn the West, also with dramatic images of tankers exploding:

This ship was given clearance to pass the strait of Hormuz by The U.S. without even coordinating with the IRGC.

It is now in the bottom of the sea after catching fire.

For a safe passage through the strait, only The IRGC can give you clearance. pic.twitter.com/V4N3Aj5390

— Daily Iran News (@DailyIranNews) July 14, 2026

Gulf Air Defenses Active Night & Morning

German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd says also agrees that charging fees for what is in reality international waters and thus under the control of no single nation "would be fundamentally wrong".

Even amid a relentless bombing campaign, Iranian forces have not shown signs of backing off their enforcement of their navigation protocol.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has on Tuesday newly "targeted and disabled" two supertankers for switching off navigation systems which involved "ignoring warnings and endangering navigation," according to Tasnim.

Al Jazeera reports early Tuesday, "It's been an active night and morning for air defense systems in several countries in this region because of missiles and projectiles fired from Iran."

"This has affected the ship traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, we saw the lowest number of ships passing in five weeks," it continues, adding: "There were only six ships. The day before that, there were 14."

Multiple Tankers Attacked Over Past Day, Casualties

At least three tankers have been struck overnight into Tuesday, with among them:

The tanker Stolt Magnesium has caught ⁠fire after the “explosion of an unidentified external device” as it was ⁠sailing in the Arabian Sea off Oman, its ⁠manager, Stolt Tankers, says.

The incident occurred at 12:40am (20:40 GMT on Monday) and caused a fire in the ‌vessel’s engine room, the company said in a statement.

The UAE and Gulf allies have strongly condemned the 'brazen' attacks on international shipping.

Source: CNN

There are growing deaths among seafarers in what's obviously the world's most dangerous and volatile energy transit water way. India has formally summoned Iran's deputy ambassador after an Indian sailor was killed.

According to the UAE defense ministry, the casualty occurred when two Iranian cruise missiles targeted two UAE vessels in the crucial shipping lane, leaving one Indian national dead and eight others wounded.

Chaos erupts in the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian forces struck three commercial vessels overnight, including two tankers hit by cruise missiles, as a U.S. blockade is set to take effect. pic.twitter.com/yJWuzthTLV

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) July 14, 2026

More latest developments

via Newsquawk...

• US President Trump reiterated that Iran has no air force, no navy and no military, while he said they will hit Iran very hard on Monday night and on Tuesday. Trump said they had a deal yesterday and that Iran breaks deals, as well as commented that the MoU was built to test Iran and that Iran didn't honour it. Trump also stated that they will hit 'Pickaxe Mountain' pretty soon and have their eyes on the site all the time, which is a good potential target
• US Central Command announced that it conducted and completed a third consecutive night of strikes against Iran, with US strikes reported in Bushehr, Bandar Abbas and Bandar Kangan, while explosions were also reported in Iran's Qeshm Island and Kish Island. More recently, there have been reports of explosions have been heard near Bandar Abbas, Bushehr and Choghadak.
• Details of US President Trump’s proposed Strait of Hormuz toll plan are still being finalised, according to Semafor, saying Trump is 'very serious about the tolls.
• Iran's armed forces have begun targeting US naval vessels in the Strait of Hormuz with cruise missiles, Al Mayadeen reported.
• Iranian Army Spokesperson said the Strait of Hormuz will not be open with US aggressions and war, SNN reported.
• IRGC said it targeted weapons warehouses, satellite communications centres, and US forces' housing building at Bahrain's Juffair base. Iran's army also targeted US military facilities and equipment in Kuwait with drones, as well as targeted a 'hostile' US vessel with cruise missiles, while it was separately reported that a US military base in Jordan was hit by a missile attack and that a missile attack hit an Iranian Kurdish opposition group site east of Iraq's Erbil.
• UKMTO received a report that a tanker was hit by an unknown projectile 40NM northeast of Qalhat, Oman. UKMTO reports of an incident 13NM southeast of Lima, Oman, the tanker was reportedly hit by a missile transiting outbound on the southern route
• The UAE Defence Ministry reported that two national tankers were targeted by Iranian cruise missiles in the southern Strait of Hormuz, with the incident occurring in Omani territorial waters, although the fires on both tankers were brought under control, and it reserved the right to respond to the escalation.
• ADNOC confirmed tankers "Al Bahyah" and "Mombasa B" were hit in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Oman’s Foreign Minister said complex talks are under way to make a long-term arrangement to guarantee freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/14/2026 - 15:15