Buyers Trading In Vehicles With Negative Equity Face Record Monthly Payments: Edmunds

Authored by Rob Sabo via The Epoch Times,

The number of automobile owners trading in vehicles with negative equity continues to rise, with 29.6 percent of trade-ins in the second quarter showing more money owed on existing auto loans than the vehicles were worth, according to automotive insights platform Edmunds’s July 16 vehicle transaction report.

Negative equity also pushed average monthly payments on “underwater” trade-ins to $944 in the quarter, the highest figure on record, the report said.

That’s $167 more per month than trade-ins without negative equity considerations, and those higher loans are expected to account for an additional $16,270 in interest paid over the loan term—another record high that’s nearly $6,500 more than the average new-vehicle loan issued during the quarter.

“Consumers are incurring more debt than ever when trading in vehicles that are underwater,” said Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at Edmunds.

“Buyers who financed at 2022’s peak prices are starting to come back to trade in, and they’re bringing thousands of dollars in old debt with them. With interest rates still elevated, this is creating a costly snowball effect for consumers.”

It’s the highest number of underwater trade-ins recorded in the second quarter since 2020, Edmunds researchers noted. Trade-ins with negative equity eased slightly from the first quarter, when they tallied 30.9 percent, but they were up 3 percent from the second quarter of 2025.

The average amount of negative equity—$6,884—was a record high for the second quarter of any year, though it pulled back from the $7,183 notched in the first quarter, Edmunds researchers noted.

As buyers roll over negative equity into new auto loans, the principal amount owed on their new vehicles swells, Caldwell added. Buyers often rely on longer-term loans to lower their monthly payments, but that coping mechanism only results in a larger total interest paid over the life of the loan.

Paying down negative equity also lengthens the time it takes for automobile owners to reach positive equity in their vehicles, or the financial position where their car is worth more than the principal amount owed, the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) consumer advice portal noted.

It’s important for consumers to know their equity position in a vehicle before trading it in, the FTC added. Equally important, the FTC said, is to closely examine new automobile contracts for the amount of negative equity that may be rolled into new loans before signing documents at dealerships.

Negative equity positions have been on the rise since 2022, Edmunds said, when high used-vehicle prices caused by a global shortage of computer chips buffered consumers from rolling over debt from one vehicle to the next.

However, as vehicle prices normalized, more vehicle owners found themselves underwater on their loans as they attempted to upgrade their cars through new-vehicle purchases.

Vehicles with model years 2020 or newer showing the most negative equity include Toyota Tundra (-$8,929), GMC Sierra 1500 (-$8,566), Chevrolet Silverado 1500 (-$8,516), and Ram 1500 (-$,8347). However, Edmunds also lists a handful of sedans and sport utility vehicles with negative equity of $5,000 or more, including the Kia Sportage, Honda Accord, Toyota RAV4, Jeep Grand Cherokee, Nissan Rogue, and many others.

Often, negative equity is more about onerous financing structures than vehicle depreciation, said Ivan Drury, director of insights at Edmunds.

“Some of the biggest dollar losses we’re seeing are on trucks and sedans that traditionally hold their value better than most,” Drury said.

“When historically safe residual value bets are showing up underwater, it’s clear this is a financing problem, not always a vehicle choice problem. These examples are a harsh reminder that a great vehicle choice can still be completely undermined by a punishing loan structure.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 11:40

US Gas Prices Cross Politically Sensitive $4 Level Closely Watched By Trump

The U.S. national average for a gallon of regular 87-octane gasoline has climbed back above the politically sensitive $4 threshold as U.S. military forces and Tehran enter a ninth day of tit-for-tat strikes. This level is significant because it is where fuel costs begin to alter spending and driving behavior among working-poor households, while also weighing more broadly on consumer sentiment, making it a key pressure point closely watched by the Trump administration ahead of the midterm election cycle.

Regular unleaded gasoline climbed above $4 a gallon on Monday, according to new data from the American Automobile Association, ending roughly one month below the politically sensitive threshold after the interim peace deal that temporarily eased Gulf area tensions.

With the U.S.-Iran conflict now caught in an escalation spiral and domestic retail fuel prices rising sharply, pressure on the Trump administration to pursue a diplomatic off-ramp is likely to intensify.

Brent crude futures jumped above $90 a barrel earlier - the highest since early June - but faded in European trading. There were reports earlier that Iran targeted tankers in the Hormuz chokepoint and a Kuwaiti oil facility was attacked.

Let's not forget: last week, the writing was on the wall.

• US Gasoline Prices Could Top $4 Per Gallon Within Days

Readers may recall that we detailed extensively how consumer behavior shifted when gas prices were above $4:

• Here's What Happened Inside Gas Stations When Gas Hit $4
• Here's What Happened Inside Convenience Stores When Gas Hit $4
• Energy Drinks Become Latest Casualty As Fuel Shock Shifts Consumer Behavior

We suggest readers revisit Daan Struyven, Goldman's leading commodity expert, on why gas prices are likely to remain elevated (read the note here).

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 11:20

400+ Ukrainian Drones Launched On Moscow In One Of Biggest Attack Waves To Date

The Russian capital has been hit with a massive drone wave from Ukraine, which injured at least ten people - including three Chinese citizens - local authorities say.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin has stated that more than 400 UAVs were launched toward Moscow and its suburbs overnight in one of the largest single raids since the war's start.

Reuters: Smoke billows after Ukrainian drone attacks in Podolsk, Moscow Region.

He described that most of the inbound drones were intercepted far from the capital, and that another 85 were downed as they got closer, but emerging images suggest there were some big strikes that landed. 

Russia's RT provided the following details, noting that the biggest impact was felt in the Moscow suburbs:

Two women were injured in Podolsk, while an 11-year-old girl in the Odintsovo district was diagnosed with an acute stress reaction but did not require hospitalization.

The main consequences of the raid were recorded in Podolsk, Domodedovo, and the Odintsovo urban district, Vorobyov said. Falling drones damaged several private homes and civilian infrastructure facilities and sparked multiple fires, he added.

In Odintsovo, a car and a private home were damaged, although no injuries were reported. In Podolsk, fires broke out and several civilian infrastructure sites were damaged, along with a private home in the village of Maloye Tolbino. 

Regions bordering Ukraine also came under heavy overnight attack from Ukraine, including Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk. These oblasts have frequently been targeted throughout the years-long war. Nationwide, at least four people were killed and dozens more injured in the large-scale drone assault.

Ukraine's President Zelensky has long touted the effectiveness of the drone war on Russian oil depots and energy facilities, but by all appearances this fresh drone attack targeted civilian areas as well as general manufacturing centers. According to more from Russian media:

The same wave of strikes hit two logistics centers operated by the Russian online retailer Wildberries in Kotovsk, Tambov Region, and Elektrostal, near Moscow. The attacks killed eight people and injured dozens more, according to regional officials.

Wildberries, often called the Russian version of Amazon, is one of the country’s most popular online retailers. Kiev confirmed that it had deliberately targeted the warehouses, claiming they stored components used in drone and navigation equipment.

Crimea was also once again heavily targeted, with the Russian Defense Ministry saying it intercepted many drones over the peninsula between Sunday night and Monday.

Reuters: damage recorded in Podolsk & other areas of Moscow region...

Russian officials said air defenses repelled a drone attack on Moscow region, with 400 drones reportedly launched overnight and damage recorded in Podolsk and other areas https://t.co/dfaQPHMfFT pic.twitter.com/xmhFivKZlX

— Reuters (@Reuters) July 20, 2026

It seems this was Zelensky's 'answer' to the massive Russian ballistic missile attacks on Kiev of the last days.

While the Kremlin over the weekend boasted of new ground advances along the front lines, the war has been focused in the air of late. As for the Ukrainian capital, emergency crews have been scrambling on an almost nightly basis.

Concerning a weekend attack, "The Kyiv government said firefighters were responding to blazes in five different districts after the attack, one of the biggest in recent weeks, hit residential buildings, office and industrial sites, a dormitory and vehicles," The Independent described.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 11:00

Houthis Announce Blockade On Saudi Shipping, Threaten Drone & Missile Attacks On Kingdom

Yemen's Houthi rebels have announced they are imposing a new maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia in response for a recent attack on Sanaa Airport, and after years of the kingdom leading a blockade of Houthi-controlled Yemeni ports.

A military statement by Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree said the maritime ban on all Saudi shipping will be effective immediately in what he declared as an "equation of 'an eye for an eye.'"

via Middle East Eye

However, details of what this 'embargo' will look like, in terms of where or what chokepoints the Houthis might seek to blockade were not given.

Last week the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen attacked the Houthi-controlled Sanaa International Airport, threatening a fragile truce that has been in place since 2022. Saudi jets had prevented an Iranian passenger plane from landing there, after the US-Saudi recognized Yemeni government warned against any Iranian planes entering the divided country's airspace.

Within days of that incident, the Houthis reportedly sent missiles on Saudi Arabia - which was a first after years of relative peace. In addition to unveiling the anti-Saudi embargo, the Houthis spokesman warned that if the Saudi siege on Yemen is not lifted, then Houthi armed forces will move towards a full-scale war.

Saree declared, "if Saudi Arabia turns to all-out aggression against Yemen, all of Saudi Arabia's energy facilities and its vital facilities will be targets for missiles and drones."

He described that the blockade of Sanaa airport "is unacceptable and cannot be tolerated" - following the Iran airline incident. Saree vowed to retaliate "to the blockade with a blockade and to respond to all escalation with escalation."

July 13: Yemen's internationally recognized, Saudi-backed government says its forces targeted Sanaa Airport, under Houthi control, to prevent an Iranian aircraft from landing there...

ایرانی طیارے کی لینڈنگ روکنے کے لیے یمنی حکومت کی صنعا ہوائی اڈے پر بمباری

یمن کی بین الاقوامی طور پر تسلیم شدہ حکومت کا کہنا ہے کہ اس کی فورسز نے حوثیوں کے زیرِ کنٹرول صنعا ایئرپورٹ کو نشانہ بنایا تاکہ ایک ایرانی طیارے کو وہاں لینڈ کرنے سے روکا جا سکے۔#Yemen #Iran… pic.twitter.com/N8kugrBrn1

— Independent Urdu (@indyurdu) July 13, 2026

"The Yemeni Armed Forces affirm their complete readiness for all options and any foolish act committed by the reckless Saudi enemy," the statement continued.

"We call upon the people of our great nation to continue the general mobilization and general call to arms, and to be fully prepared for all scenarios and developments, and to support the fronts with fighters."

The "internationally recognized" Yemeni government has long been propped up by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the US, after a lengthy half-decade long UAE/Saudi/US coalition air war failed to dislodge Houthi power. The pro-Saudi government operates out of Aden in southern Yemen, after the country's president fled there a decade ago.

Earlier this month there had been an initial attempted Saudi warplane intercept of an Iranian civilian airliner, which was reportedly carrying Yemenis who had been stranded in Iran back to their home country.

BREAKING: Houthis of Yemen announce a a "maritime embargo" against Saudi Arabia, "effective immediately."

Saudi Arabia has until now exported ~4.5m b/d from Yanbu in the Red Sea, most of it heading South throughout the Bab al-Mandab Strait between Yemen and Djibouti-Eritrea pic.twitter.com/c96Apzh9As

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 20, 2026

The Houthis at the time of the prior incident said it was "breaking the Saudi-American siege on our people and expelling the occupiers."

As we featured previously, since 2015 Saudi Arabia has imposed a blockade on Yemen's land, sea, and air ports, severely restricting vital commercial and humanitarian imports, including fuel and food.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 10:25

Texas PUC Approves "Ride-Through" Rules For Data Centers

By Diana DiGangi of UtilityDive,

The Texas Public Utility Commission on Thursday unanimously approved rules that will require large computational loads, like data centers and crypto-mining facilities, within the Electric Reliability Council of Texas footprint to stay stable and connected to the grid through disruptions.

Modern computational loads, Kenteel Engineering said in a June blog, are “engineered to protect extremely sensitive and expensive equipment,” and during a voltage dip are programmed to disconnect or enter momentary cessation.

However, this presents a reliability problem, Kenteel Engineering said, as when “several hundred — or several thousand — megawatts of computational load all detect the same sag and drop simultaneously, the grid experiences a sudden, large loss of demand.”

“As LCLs increase on the ERCOT System, similar events would be expected to increase in magnitude and frequency, leading to frequency instability and other reliability problems absent frequency and voltage ride-through requirements,” the Texas PUC rules state. 

The rules don’t immediately penalize facilities that fail to ride through a qualifying event, Kenteel Engineering noted, but instead put them “on the clock” to investigate and report the root cause within 90 days of ERCOT’s request, “develop a corrective plan within 90 days of completing that investigation, and implement the approved plan within 180 days unless ERCOT grants more time.”

“Overriding all of that, if ERCOT judges that continued operation poses an imminent risk to local or system reliability, it can order the [large electric load] — and keep it disconnected — until the Customer demonstrates compliance to ERCOT’s satisfaction,” Kenteel Engineering said.

In comments, the Data Center Coalition argued that the PUC lacks the statutory authority to “impose the binding and ongoing operational requirements contained in [the rules] directly on retail customers — a category of entity that the Legislature deliberately excluded from ERCOT’s authority.” 

Texas Industrial Energy Consumers made similar comments, writing, “Unlike Market Participants who must agree to comply with and be bound by all ERCOT Protocols as a condition of participating in the wholesale market, pure retail loads have made no such commitment and have no such obligation.”

TIEC also argued that ERCOT lacks the expertise to “develop reasonable operational requirements for complex, costly manufacturing equipment. It is completely inappropriate to give ERCOT the ability to directly regulate businesses who are not participating in the wholesale market and are not otherwise regulated entities.”

In a staff memo from the PUC’s R. Floyd Walker, senior counsel with the commission’s market analysis division, Walker dismissed concerns over the PUC’s authority. Those commenters “seem to be working under the assumption that explicitly statutory authority is required,” he wrote. “Staff respectfully submits that delegated authority is sufficient.”

“There is no debate that voltage and frequency excursions on the transmission network create reliability concerns, which increase with the interconnection of each new large computational load,” Walker said. “Accordingly, if approved by the Commission, the provisions of [the rules] would be within ERCOT’s authority by virtue of that approval.”

Comments from the Texas Blockchain Council argued that proposed mitigation approaches for LCLs, such as the installation of dedicated battery storage, “are neither practical nor economical at scale.”

“While battery solutions have been suggested, we are not aware of any that have been successfully tested or deployed at the scale required for [LCLs],” the group wrote. “Even if pursued, mandating dedicated batteries for each facility would be unlikely to fully resolve the underlying technical challenges and would impose substantial costs, currently estimated at more than $1.6 million per MW, making such an approach economically prohibitive for most operations.”

ERCOT staff approved of the rules, writing in a market impact statement that they provide “necessary requirements to reduce the reliability risk posed by LCLs unexpectedly tripping or transferring to backup generation when frequency and voltage excursions within a specified range occur.”

In official comments, ERCOT wrote that LCL loss wasn’t a hypothetical, and ERCOT “has experienced 28 events involving LCL trips of at least 100 MW due to voltage and frequency excursions since the beginning of 2023. This risk will increase exponentially with the significant growth of LCLs expected in the ERCOT Region.”

Developers have requested studies for more than 438 GW of large load projects within ERCOT’s footprint, and “even if only a small fraction of these projects materialize, this will significantly increase the risk that cascading outages could occur due to LCL failures to ride through typical voltage or frequency disturbances,” ERCOT said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 10:10

"I'm Not Living In Communist America": Bill Maher Blasts Marxist DSA Democrats, Says He May Vote For JD Vance

"I'm not living in Communist America… I've read the quotes from the DSA platform, from their own mouths. Don't tell me I'm not seeing what I am seeing," Bill Maher told ABC News' Jonathan Karl in an exclusive interview that aired on Sunday.

Bill Maher: “I’m not living in Communist America… I’ve read the quotes from the DSA platform, from their own mouths. Don’t tell me I’m not seeing what I am seeing.” pic.twitter.com/grWslcyxD9

— America (@america) July 19, 2026

Karl asked Maher, "Could you see yourself voting for JD Vance?"

Maher responded: "Yes. If this is the Democratic side, yes."

Establishment Democrats are freaking out over the Democratic Socialists of America's attempted hijacking of their party because this anti-American, far-left Marxist movement, with possible ties to foreign subversion, risks dooming the party in the midterms and beyond.

The problem for Democrats is that years of letting socialists and Marxists into their DEI kingdom have only now produced dire consequences. Status quo Democrats are watching their power evaporate as DSA candidates defeat mainstream Democrats in primaries across New York, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and other states.

About two weeks ago, Mark Penn, the former Clinton adviser and White House pollster, used a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed to sound the alarm over the rise of DSA.

Penn warned: "Lawmakers, law-enforcement agencies and journalists should investigate the DSA to see if it is being funded by foreign governments and interests."

Then Jamie Metzl, who served in the Clinton White House, sounded the alarm about DSA in an X post, stating, "Every Democrat and every American should recognize that the DSA represents a fundamental threat to our party and our country."

I am a lifelong Democrat. I served on President Clinton’s National Security Council and in the State Department under Madeleine Albright. I am also a lifelong human rights and civil rights advocate.

But every Democrat and every American should recognize that the DSA represents a…

— Jamie Metzl (@JamieMetzl) July 18, 2026

Why is DSA a liability for Democrats? Well, their agenda is to destroy America:

DSA leaders promote "destroying America from within" ...

Another DSA member says she is totally fine with national socialists. National socialists are commonly known as Nazis.

White DSA Member Inadvertently Exposes Socialist Playbook: "Secret Nazis" Are Fine If They Advance Agenda https://t.co/BqzDHEYQjs

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 19, 2026

New polling indicates that Americans across the political spectrum overwhelmingly reject communism, reinforcing the view that the DSA represents a major political liability for Democrats.

The anti-American Marxist movement's growing influence also comes as the State Department intensifies efforts to identify and dismantle far-left extremist organizations seeking to undermine the country in subversion efforts.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 09:40

Tungsten Miner Soars After Billionaire Forrest Takes 17% Stake

Australian mining billionaire Andrew Forrest, founder and executive chairman of iron ore giant Fortescue, has agreed to acquire Oaktree Capital's entire 16.8% stake in the Sydney-listed tungsten producer EQ Resources.

Shares of EQ Resources in Sydney surged 34% on Monday following news of the transaction, which is valued at about 190 million AUD ($133 million) based on Friday's close. The deal covers 862.1 million shares and 35.6 million options.

Forrest's most likely reasoning for the deal is that EQ Resources controls one of the largest operating tungsten platforms outside China. Tungsten is a critical metal used in armor-piercing munitions, aerospace components, cutting tools, electronics, and semiconductor manufacturing.

Bloomberg noted that, outside of China, Australia has the world's largest tungsten reserves, accounting for about 80% of global production.

Prices of tungsten in Europe reached a new all-time high of $3,025 per ton after a year-long rally, following Beijing's decision to place certain tungsten products on its export control list. Beyond China, stockpiling has accelerated and war demand is driving a squeeze in physical markets.

George Heppel, vice president of commodity research, told Bloomberg earlier this year: "In my 12 years working across the commodity space and dealing with a lot of weird and wonderful metals, I have never seen a market as tight as tungsten is right now, aside from maybe lithium in 2021." 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 09:05

US Agencies Miss GENIUS Act Deadline, Extending Stablecoin Uncertainty

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

US regulatory agencies missed the rulemaking deadline under the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act on Saturday, which marked one year since the law was signed. 

Several US regulatory agencies published proposed rules and collected public feedback during the past year, but no final regulations were issued before the deadline.

These agencies include the Department of the Treasury, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Federal Reserve Board, which issued proposed rules but no final rules, according to rulemaking trackers by law firm Chapman and crypto investment company Paradigm.

Missing the statutory deadline does not invalidate the GENIUS Act, but the unfinished rules may result in regulatory uncertainty for stablecoin issuers. 

The GENIUS Act established the first comprehensive federal regulatory framework for stablecoins in the US. The act was signed into law by US President Donald Trump on July 18, 2025.

Regulators issued 10 rule proposals during the GENIUS Act’s first year

Federal regulators issued 10 notices of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) in the year since the GENIUS Act was signed into law, according to Paradigm.

The Treasury Department issued four proposals covering the broader implementation of the act, including standards for determining whether state stablecoin regulatory regimes are similar to the federal framework, registration requirements for foreign stablecoin issuers and guidelines for compliance with anti-money laundering measures.

Rulemaking progress after the GENIUS Act was signed into law. Source: Paradigm.

The OCC issued two NPRMs covering nationally chartered payment stablecoin issuers, approval requirements and supervisory standards.

The FDIC issued one NPRM on FDIC-supervised institutions that issue payment stablecoins, focused on supervisory expectations and operational standards such as reserve management.

The National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) proposed rules enabling federally insured credit unions to participate in stablecoin issuance.

Finally, federal banking agencies jointly proposed an interagency implementation rule to harmonize supervision across the OCC, Federal Reserve and FDIC, aiming to ensure consistent supervisory expectations across all federal regulators.

Anchorage urges lawmakers to pass CLARITY Act

Federally chartered crypto bank Anchorage Digital has urged lawmakers to pass the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY).

“On GENIUS’ one-year anniversary, we’re renewing our call for Congress to pass the CLARITY Act and extend the clear market-structure rules that worked for stablecoins to the broader digital asset economy,” Anchorage Digital wrote in a Friday report.

The CLARITY Act seeks to establish the first federal regulatory framework for digital assets in the US. It cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May, though banking industry groups argued that it would allow crypto firms to offer yields on stablecoins without facing the same requirements as traditional banks.

On July 13, state banking associations, including the American Bankers Association (ABA) and the Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA), sent a joint letter urging Senate leaders to provide more detail on the CLARITY Act’s stablecoin yield provisions and argued that new amendments need to prevent payment stablecoins from acting as deposit substitutes rather than pure transaction tools.

On June 26, Galaxy Digital cut its odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%, citing the lack of a unified Senate Banking-Agriculture text, no firm floor schedule and a narrowing legislative window before lawmakers leave Washington. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 08:45

Futures Rebound On Fresh Bout Of Iran Optimism As Hyperscaler Earnings Loom

US equity futures rebound from Friday's selling, indicating a firmer start to the week with S&P futures rising 0.5% at 8.00am ET, and Nasdaq futures up 1% after a sluggish start to the session, after Iran’s Foreign  Ministry said it had received proposals from mediators about the conflict with the US. In premarket trading, semis are higher as are Mag7 names; the AI theme is bid across sectors. Cyclicals are leading Defensives; both are higher in absolute terms, pointing to an ‘Everything Rally’ today. According to JPM, the US / Iran escalation is being faded with WTI lower pre-market and Brent off its highs. Bond yields are flat to up 1bp s the yield curve twists steeper. Commodities are mixed but net higher with US crude/natgas lower. The update from Iran has seen energy prices reverse gains with Brent now down 0.3% and on an $87/bbl handle. European stocks are now a touch higher with the Stoxx 600 up 0.1% Asian stocks were more mixed as a 4.5% plunge in the Kospi was offset by advances in China after two major state funds showed fresh purchases of domestic stocks. Bonds are still down but off session lows with Treasuries off by 3 ticks and yields up around 1bps across the US curve. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has been choppy but ultimately flat with the greenback mixed versus G10 peers. Spot gold is up 0.1%, while silver rises 1.5%. Bitcoin has been on the back foot, down 0.5%. This week is a light macro data with the next Fed mtg on July 29, today we receive the Leading Index. 

 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Nvidia  +1.1%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.3%, Tesla (TSLA) +0.8%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.01%, Apple (AAPL) -0.6%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.6%, Meta Platforms (META) -0.3%

• AMC Entertainment (AMC) gains 16% after the theater operator posted revenue for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Shares of peer Imax (IMAX) climbs 3%.
• Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) rises 7% after the restaurant chain reported second-quarter revenue that beat analyst estimates. Chief Executive Officer Russell Weiner said the company “drove meaningful order count growth” during the period.
• Fervo Energy (FRVO) rises 4% as Jefferies upgrades to buy following the stock’s recent pull-back from its IPO highs.
• Global Payments (GPN) gains 1.7% as Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight, citing constructive checks on Genius and Worldpay businesses.
• Hut 8 (HUT) rises 13% after the data center operator and Bitcoin miner announced a second 15-year lease for its Beacon Point data center campus in
• Nueces County, Texas, that’s valued at  $9.8 billion.
• Iren (IREN) climbs 8% after the owner and manager of data centers powered by renewable energy raised its year-end AI cloud annualized run-rate revenue target to more than $4 billion.
• LXP Industrial Trust (LXP) climbs 3% as Brookfield Asset Management and CPP Investments agreed to buy the company  in an all-cash deal valued at about $5.2 billion.
• Urban Outfitters (URBN) rises 4% as Goldman Sachs upgrades to buy noting upside to the stock as the UO brand recovery bolsters profitability.
• Yeti Holdings (YETI) is up 4% as Goldman Sachs upgrades to buy, saying the outdoor coolers and insulated bottle maker’s growth outlook is becoming more durable.

Futures are pointing to a positive start to cash trading as markets head into a week of contrasts: as Bloomberg notes, the economic calendar is sparse, but a deluge of earnings reports will test whether company results can match high expectations. S&P 500 futures were 0.5% higher as geopolitics once again dominated weekend news as fighting between the US and Iran escalated. Trump has remained silent so far on his next move, while average gas pump prices climbed back above $4 a gallon — a painful level for consumers. The next 2 weeks we get hyperscaler earnings, which are viewed as the next positive catalyst. As noted above, over the weekend US / Iran escalation is being faded with WTI lower pre-mkt and Brent off its highs, now below $90.

Investors “still think the US and Iran will go back to the negotiation table,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Panmure Liberum. “Only once the US is no longer willing to negotiate do we expect markets to price higher oil prices for longer... The sentiment among investors remains positively biased, despite the setbacks in the tech space last week. This bodes well for renewed market stability this week.”

Still, stock index volatility is creeping higher as it catches up to much higher single stock vol, and demand for hedging is rising, with a measure of Skew jumping to its highest level since April — threatening to pull other volatility measures higher. Meanwhile, as Goldman noted overnight, extreme stock swings are tempting funds into reverse dispersion trades. 

High volatility in AI stocks, a plunging momentum factor, and ultra-low correlations across S&P 500 stocks are reasons for renewed interest in investment themes outside AI, according to Goldman. 

Meanwhile, pressure is building for the biggest spenders on AI to justify their expenditures to traders, with earnings reports over the next two weeks to be scoured for evidence that the investments are generating bigger returns. Ever the permabulls (since Kolanovich quit), JPMorgan strategists see AI-linked stocks as unlikely to remain under pressure for long, expecting strong earnings growth and improving valuations to reignite demand, led by semiconductor companies.

Meanwhile, last week's release of Moonshoot Kimi K3 AI model late last week was followed by Alibaba’s Qwen 3.8-Max preview over the weekend — suggesting competition in advanced AI models is broadening beyond US frontier labs.

Alphabet will kick off quarterly earnings from AI hyperscalers on Wednesday. The report comes at a time when chip stocks, the S&P 500’s biggest driver of 2026, have entered a bear market over worries that the likes of Alphabet won’t sustain vast outlays on the global buildout of AI infrastructure. “This week, we wait for the hyperscalers to report and especially pay attention to their monetization efforts and their capex intentions,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. “This could calm the market.”

uropean stocks recoup initial losses with the Stoxx 600 little changed at 641.78 as Brent crude advances with the US and Iran engaged in a series of tit-for-tat attacks. Ryanair is one of the day’s biggest laggards, falling as much as 6.9% after the airline’s results were hit by rising oil prices and fare reductions. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Lagercrantz rallies as much as 5.9%, the most in two months, as the industrial conglomerate receives upgrades from SEB Equities, Pareto and Handelsbanken following its first-quarter result
• Munters advances as much as 6.3% after SEB and DNB Carneige upgraded their respective views on the Swedish industrial heating and air company to buy, while Jefferies reiterated its buy rating
• DocMorris rises as much as 5.1%, the most in nearly a week, after the stock was upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS, which cited “a more constructive view” on the online pharmacy’s margin prospects
• PolyPeptide gains as much as 5.8% to CHF44.15 after Samsung Biologics agreed to acquire the Swiss contract drugmaker in an all-cash deal, with analysts saying the deal is fairly valued overall
• Fresenius shares advance as much as 2.5%  as Deutsche Bank sees potential for an upgrade to earnings guidance when the German health-care company reports results next month
• Prysmian rises as much as 2.8% after the Italian company signed a 10-year agreement with Koch Inc.’s Molex to supply optical cables to data centers. Such a deal had been long awaited and is likely to reassure investors, analysts say
• Ryanair shares drop as much as 7.6%, the most since March, after a significant dip in first-quarter profit compared to the previous year as conflict in the Middle East lifted oil prices and impacted demand
• Nokian Renkaat falls as much as 10% after Nordea cut the tiremaker to sell from hold following its recent strong run. Analysts said the 10% year-on-year volume increase for the second quarter “cannot be maintained for long”
• Belimo shares drop as much as 9%, hitting a two-month low, after strong results from the heating and ventilation specialist were offset by its failure to explicitly reiterate its revenue guidance
• Segro shares fall as much as 1.9% to 880p each after the UK warehouse landlord rejected a third proposal from Prologis, which valued the stock at 993p, or about £13.5 billion for the whole company
• Corbion shares fall as much as 5.4% after Oddo BHF cut the food and chemicals ingredients producer to neutral. Analyst Robert Jan Vos said he sees a “real risk” of a profit warning at the July 31 earnings announcement
• Clariant shares fall as much as 5.2% after Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation on the Swiss chemicals company to underweight from equalweight, seeing continued pressure on earnings due to the Middle East conflict

Asian stocks were mixed as South Korean equities were led lower by chip stocks, while Chinese equities were bolstered after state funds revealed fresh purchases. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index swung between small gains and losses. Korea’s Kospi slid as much as 5.1% after being closed on Friday for a public holiday, with chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix the biggest contributors to its decline. Chinese shares rose following last week’s rout, after two major state funds said they made fresh purchases and as regulators are set to meet with key industry participants. Japanese markets are shut for a holiday.  Korea’s sharp swings “show that AI and semiconductor de-risking is not over,” said Charu Chanana, a chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. “China tech is offsetting some of the regional weakness, but this is not a broad Asia risk-on move.” “Cheaper and more efficient Chinese AI is raising the bar for US Big Tech ahead of earnings: talking about another increase in capex may no longer be enough.” Asian sectors to watch

• Chinese coal and oil stocks jumped as the US and Iran continued to escalate back-and-forth attacks, heightening to the need to secure energy supplies outside the Strait of Hormuz.
• Kweichow Moutai’s shares rise as much as 2.6% after the liquor maker announced price increases, a move that analysts say is intended to defend margins and spur more direct-to-consumer sales.
• Chinese optical stocks rally after several major companies delivered solid 1H preliminary earnings.
• Chinese molybdenum stocks jump after CCTV reports on surging prices, tight supply and potential growth outlook.
• Shares of Alibaba gain as much as 5.4% in Hong Kong after releasing a preview version of its flagship Qwen3.8 Max model, describing it as second only to Anthropic’s Fable 5.
• Shares linked to Chinese battery makers mostly decline after the nation said it plans to impose a consumption tax for products including lithium-ion batteries and solar cells.
• Asian energy shares follow oil higher after fresh attacks across the Middle East resulted in the US announcing the death of a third service member in the past two days.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has been choppy but ultimately flat with the greenback mixed versus G10 peers.

In commodities, news that Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it had received proposals from mediators about the conflict with the US sent energy prices lower with Brent now down 0.3% and on an $87/bbl handle. Bonds are still down but off session lows with Treasuries off by 3 ticks and yields up around 1bps across the US curve. Spot gold is up 0.1%, while silver rises 1.5%. Bitcoin has been on the back foot, down 0.5%. 

The only item on today's economic calendar is at 10:00 am when we get the June Leading Index, est. -0.09%, prior 0.1%.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• U.S. gasoline pump prices crossed the $4 a gallon mark on Monday as renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran further disrupt energy ‌flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil supplies. National average retail gasoline prices have climbed more than 30% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February. The average pump price on Monday was $4.0030 a gallon, according to AAA data. ReutersChina’s “national team” of funds stepped into the equity market and made sizeable purchases in an attempt to bolster prices following last week’s slump. FT
• Chinese officials will contemplate stimulus measures, including accelerating bond issuance, after GDP fell below the government’s target range in Q2. FT
• Iran’s currency has sunk to record low levels vs. the USD as the country’s economy comes under further strain. FT
• Iraq is using a vast fleet of trucks to carry fuel oil through Syria and reroute flows away from the Strait of Hormuz. BBG 
• Moonshot is getting ready for a Hong Kong IPO in as early as the next six months as it looks to tap capital markets after wrapping a fundraise that may value it at more than $30 billion BBG
• Hong Kong is considering extending equity trading hours to align with most global markets, including a proposal to eliminate the lunch break. BBG
• Andy Burnham was named the UK’s Prime Minister today, the country’s seventh premier in just over a decade. BBG
• TSMC is adding $100 billion to its investments in Arizona to meet strong US demand and ward off rivals, CFO Wendell Huang said, after beating profit expectations last quarter. BBG
• US President Trump posted "Wonderful news! I have just been informed that Giant Eagle, a GREAT American Grocery Company, will be lowering prices, by a lot, across more than 300 products this Summer, through Labor Day, to help hardworking American families".

Top Iran News

• US and Iran engaged in another exchange of strikes after an Iranian attack on Jordan killed two US service members on Friday, while Tehran said it was suspending its commitments under the interim peace deal as strikes ramped up.
• US President Trump said we hit Iran very hard again tonight and hit Iran in honour of probably three patriots who died, adding we are ending any chance of Iran having a nuclear weapon.
• US Central Command announced the ninth consecutive evening of strikes against Iran, in which targets included Iranian military command centres, air defence and coastal surveillance sites, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and communication networks, to further diminish Iran's ability to attack commercial vessels and civilian mariners transiting the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM also announced it redirected 6 commercial vessels and disabled 1 to ensure full compliance, as of July 19th.
• Explosions were heard in Iran's Tabriz and the city of Jask in the Hormozgan province in southern Iran, while explosions were also reported in Sirik and Khormoj, southern Iran. Furthermore, there were explosions in Delijan in the southern Markazi province and Arak in western Iran, while air defences were activated in Konarak city, Sistan and the Baluchestan province in southeastern Iran.
• Iran launched missiles from its Lorestan province in western Iran towards enemy targets, and blasts were reported at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, while explosions were also reported in the UAE's Ras Al-Khaimah.
• US is said to be planning for a wider war, according to a US official familiar with internal administration discussions, cited by The Washington Post.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said the US remains open to a diplomatic resolution regarding Iran, while Rubio also stated that his meeting with the Lebanese President was very positive.
• Iran’s nuclear agency condemned a US attack on the site of the nuclear power plant under construction in Darkhovin, which it said violated international law, according to Mehr News Agency, although it didn’t mention when the strike took place.
• Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said the US strike on the under-construction power plant was a dangerous attack on Iran's peaceful infrastructure, and the US must bear full responsibility for any escalation and the resulting insecurity and instability.
• IRGC said it destroyed 20 warehouses used by US forces in the Azraq region of Jordan, resulting in the deaths of dozens of soldiers, according to Al Jazeera Mubasher.
• IRGC said two ships were involved in an “accident” after attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz via an unsafe route, and that two other vessels abandoned the route, while it warned that vessels influenced by the US and entering unsafe routes will certainly face accidents. It was later reported that IRGC said two oil tankers were blown up after attempting to transit the southern route in the Strait of Hormuz.
• UKMTO said it has received a report of the incident eight nautical miles northwest of Oman's Khumsar, with a vessel on fire, but the cause has not been verified yet.
• Tehran Times noted reports of an unprecedented rise in opposition to the war within various ranks of the US military, while it noted that refusals by US personnel to carry out orders from superiors are increasing at an unprecedented rate, citing multiple intelligence sources.
• Kuwait's Defence Ministry said Iran conducted sustained strikes against civil and critical infrastructure on Kuwaiti territory, which caused multiple fires and severe damage.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said negotiations with the US could be pursued based on national interests and that intermediaries have shared messages with Tehran in recent days. Mediators are continuing their efforts to prevent escalation, and we have received proposals from them, but we will not go into details now. He added that they will not abandon talks with the US but Iran's sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz are non-negotiable.
• Al Jazeera source in Pakistan's Interior Ministry said the Iranian Interior Minister arrived in Pakistan's capital Islamabad today. Iran and Pakistan will hold extensive consultations on border management, cross-border security and the implementation of the Islamabad MoU, alongside other issues of mutual concern, Journalist Mallick reported.
• The Yemeni Armed Forces said an announcement of an important position to be released at 3pm Sana'a time (13:00BST).
• Explosions were sounded in Isfahan, however reports state they were caused by controlled explosions. Additionally, Iran's Bushehr Governor said Bushehr was targeted twice by the American enemy.
• Unofficial reports indicate that one drone struck the grounds of Kuwait's main power plant, Tasnim reported

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed following the US-Iran escalation over the weekend, in which the sides ramped up their strikes after two US service members were killed during an Iranian strike on Jordan, while key participants were away owing to the holiday closure in Japan for Marine Day. ASX 200 was rangebound with light pertinent catalyst and a lack of data releases overnight. KOSPI underperformed as the tech-related losses late last week caught up with the index on return from a 3-day weekend, while South Korea had temporarily banned new listings of single-stock leveraged ETFs tied to tech companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to curb extreme market volatility. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp rallied with strength seen in energy and tech-related stocks amid higher oil prices and reports that launched a preview of its flagship Qwen3.8 Max model, which is said to be comparable to leading frontier AI models. Furthermore, the PBoC maintained its benchmark LPRs for the 14th consecutive month, while China’s leaders are expected to decide on additional stimulus measures at the Politburo meeting this month.

Top Asian News

• HKEX is reportedly mulling longer stock trading hours, and scraps lunch break.
• China’s top leaders are expected to decide on additional stimulus measures this month following a sharp slowdown in Q2 GDP, with leaders expected to focus on speeding up bond issuance at their next Politburo meeting, expected to take place during the final week of July, according to FT.

European equity futures are mixed, following on from a similar theme seen across APAC indices. Early morning action saw indices broadly subdued, reacting to the latest round of US-Iran strikes, where Iran officially suspended its cooperation in the Islamabad MoU. However, the Iranian Foreign Minister lifted sentiment after he stated that negotiations with the US could be pursued, based on national interests; he added that intermediaries shared messages with Tehran in recent days. This spurred some mild upticks across European indices. European sectors hold a very slight negative bias. Energy unsurprisingly takes the top spot, given the aforementioned geopolitical developments. Tech and Media complete the top three. The tech strength comes in contrast to the underperformance seen in APAC trade, whereby the likes of Samsung (-4.3%) and SK Hynix (-4.2%) both extended lower. No particular driver for the strength seen across European tech names, but potentially some positioning into a busy tech-earnings slate this week. To the downside, Travel & Leisure has been dragged down by a) elevated energy prices, b) Ryanair earnings. On the latter point, Ryanair extends lower by c. 5.9%, after reporting a miss on its headline metrics and sees lower summer fares citing waning demand. It also suggested that it has no visibility for H2, amidst the ongoing Iran uncertainty.

Top European news

• UK’s Andy Burnham is to drop plans for a digital ID in a ‘reset of priorities’ and will focus on cost-of-living policies, when he becomes PM on Monday.

FX

• 2G10s are mixed, but mostly firmer against the Buck with FX-specific catalysts light, and geopolitics not giving much of a bias. Antipodeans lead after reports of potential Chinese stimulus, GBP performs well into Burnham's appointment as PM.
• USD continues to be driven by geopolitics, with the Greenback reversing earlier gains in tandem with energy benchmarks after Iran’s Foreign Ministry noted the nation is open to returning to talks. Aside from this, fresh drivers are light with last week’s inflation (PPI/CPI) in focus ahead of PCE, with the data slate light in the remainder of this week. DXY saw a modest bid at the Sunday re-open to a 100.80 peak, though reversed as mentioned, to a 100.65 trough.
• Burnham is set to become UK PM after midday today. The main focus for GBP is whether he confirms Mahmood as Chancellor, after UK press widely reported last week that she would take the job, alongside any remarks around public control in the water/energy sector, and how this would be funded. Sterling is one of the best G10 performers today, sitting around 0.85 in the EUR cross and below 1.35 in Cable. The UK calendar today is light; the week sees LFS and Inflation data.
• Antipodeans are the best performers alongside a broad bid in Chinese assets, where its leaders are expected to decide on additional stimulus measures at the Politburo meeting this month. AUD/USD, NZD/USD +0.3%.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed income benchmarks are softer across the board, but are off their worst levels following recent remarks by the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei, who noted that negotiations with the US could be pursued based on national interests, that intermediaries have shared messages with Tehran in recent days and that Iran will not abandon talks with the US. This constructive rhetoric by the spokesman comes amid a ninth straight day of strikes between the US and Iran. Iran killed two service members in Jordan and one in Iraq over the weekend, while the US continued to target Iranian military capabilities.
• Gilts (-16 ticks) are in focus today as Labour leader Burnham is set to become PM. He is to meet the King around noon to accept his appointment and then give his first speech between 12:30-13:00BST in front of 10 Downing Street. Although this will be widely watched, the key will be on who he appoints as the Chancellor. It has been widely touted that the current Home Secretary, Mahmood, will be given the role of Chancellor. Analysts see the 2s-30s curve flattening if Burnham's choice of chancellor aligns with market expectations, given Mahmood is seen as fiscally prudent.
• Bunds (-8 ticks) follow the broader space higher, given the recent fall in energy prices. This week's focus will be on the ECB policy announcement on Thursday, in which the Bank is expected to keep rates steady at 2.25%, with only a 16% chance of a hike in July. However, analysts continue to see further hikes in 2026, with 22bps priced in for a hike in September.
• USTs (-3 ticks) have returned to their opening price, trading at the upper end of their 109-00+ to 109-06 range. Not much on the docket this week, given Fed officials are on blackout ahead of their policy meeting.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent Front-month futures are off their best levels after opening higher overnight in reaction to the military escalation, before waning in early European hours on continued efforts for diplomacy. To recap, the US and Iran ramped up their exchange of strikes following the death of a couple of US service members due to Iran attacking Jordan on Friday, while CENTCOM announced the 9th consecutive night of strikes against Iran, and Iran continued to retaliate against US interests and allies. Thereafter, initial weakness this morning emanated from reports that Pakistan's Interior Ministry says the Iranian Interior Minister arrives in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, today. The downside was further exacerbated by commentary from Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei, who said negotiations with the US could be pursued based on national interests; Intermediaries have shared messages with Tehran in recent days. Further, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said it will not abandon talks with the US, but Iran's sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz are non-negotiable.
• Price action this morning has largely followed headlines. Brent Sep’26 hit an overnight peak of USD 91.42/bbl before moving back to lows of USD 87.72/bbl. Similarly, WTI Sep’26 notched a current high at 84.60/bbl before falling to a USD 81.11/bbl trough at the time of writing. Ahead, there could be some risk around 13:00BST as the Yemeni Armed Forces said “an announcement of an important position” will be made at that time.
• Precious metals remain in a narrow range but have lifted off worst levels in tandem with the Dollar easing in lockstep with oil. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,982-USD 4,030/oz range. Spot silver has picked up momentum in recent trade, back on a USD 57/oz handle vs lows of USD 55.50/oz.
• Base metals are mixed and continue with similar price action seen during APAC hours. Copper futures eke out mild gains alongside the outperformance in red metal's largest buyer overnight.
• Iraq's SOMO is reportedly looking to buy Aug-Sep gasoil deliveries, according to documents.
• Syria has emerged as a regional hub for Iraqi fuel oil exports, with more than a quarter of Middle East fuel oil shipments transiting Syrian Mediterranean ports, according to the Syrian state news agency.
• Oil loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s terminal on the Black Sea coast were suspended following a drone attack.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said maybe Canada should pay some damages for wildfires, and that he spoke with Canada's PM Carney regarding the fires, while Trump added that they have a good relationship with Canada and have no tension with anybody regarding trade.
• UK trade negotiators made last-minute concessions to India that could undermine Tata Steel UK’s Llanwern plant in Newport, to secure a much-lauded trade deal, according to some industry insiders cited by FT.

Geopolitics

• Russia and Ukraine exchanged fresh strikes on warehouses and ports over the weekend.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said that they struck three oil depots in Russia’s Stravpol region, while Foreign Minister Sybiha said Russia conducted its largest ballistic missile barrage against Kyiv since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, involving around four dozen ballistic missiles.
• Moscow's Mayor reported overnight drone incidents, and TASS estimated that the attempted drone attack on Moscow is one of the largest in several years, while Russian authorities said that 400 marches were launched towards Moscow although most were neutralised.
• Russia's Salavat refinery has reportedly restored some of its damaged capacities following a drone strike.
• EU is facing a collapse in support for new economic sanctions against Russia, with members refusing to back measures that could damage their corporate champions, according to FT citing diplomats.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00 am: Jun Leading Index, est. -0.09%, prior 0.1%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

From the World Cup to "Mapping the World’s Prices 2026", released last week and already attracting extensive global coverage along with more than 30,000 downloads. The standout theme from this year’s edition is just how inexpensive Japan has become, although the report is packed with data across 69 financially important cities worldwide. You can find the report here at the Deutsche Bank Research Institute. 

Just as you thought it was safe to relax into the summer, last week brought a reminder that there remain some big unresolved themes that could become an issue in thin summer liquidity. Brent saw its largest weekly increase (+15.9%) since April as the US and Iran continued to exchange blows, with European natural gas seeing its highest close since March.  

Over the weekend, the conflict has intensified markedly, with a fresh wave of tit-for-tat attacks underscoring how quickly the situation is deteriorating. Three US service members were killed in separate incidents in Jordan and Iraq, while US strikes hit targets including Qeshm Island and multiple locations in southern Iran. At the same time, Iran broadened its retaliation beyond military sites, targeting critical infrastructure across the Gulf, including power and desalination facilities in Kuwait, as well as launching drone and missile attacks towards US bases and regional allies. And prospects for any diplomatic breakthrough remained dim, with Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi suggesting that some nuclear issues may “remain unresolvable”.

Tensions also escalated further in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran signalling a far more assertive stance over shipping flows and claiming to have intercepted vessels attempting to transit the waterway. 

In response, this morning Brent is up +2.45% to $90.26/bbl after a ninth consecutive night of US strikes against Iran. Given the escalation US futures are performing relatively well with S&P (+0.15%) and Nasdaq (+0.47%) contracts higher. In Asia markets are generally higher but the KOSPI (-3.22%) continues its wild ride, though has improved from being down -5% as I’ve been writing this.

Chinese related equities are strong, with the Hang Seng (+2.04%), CSI 300 (+1.55%) and Shanghai Composite (+1.18%) all higher. Elsewhere the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.17%) is edging higher, and Japanese markets are closed today for the Marine Day holiday. This means no cash US Treasury trading but bond futures are down on the higher oil prices. 

Staying in Asia, concerns continued to mount over the competitive progress of China’s AI ecosystem last week. We’ve been tracking the rapid climb of Chinese models and token use in various CoTDs with data updated in the WOW! pack (link here) showing the intelligence vs cost comparison of US and Chinese models. Chinese labs are seemingly catching up fast.

The micro implications are as important as some Chinese models are being priced at levels broadly comparable to mid-tier US models (e.g. Anthropic Sonnet), despite performance that approaches higher-end systems, implying a materially lower cost-to-intelligence ratio. That challenges the economics of the current US-led AI stack, where frontier capability has been associated with very high compute and capital intensity. A key differentiator is approach: Chinese models are increasingly released as open-weight systems, allowing developers and enterprises to download, modify and run them locally, whereas US leaders have largely pursued closed, proprietary models delivered via APIs. This open approach accelerates adoption, innovation and cost competition, as it decentralises development and reduces reliance on a small number of providers, but also undermines pricing power and control. The immediate market reaction—pressure on AI and semiconductor names—reflects a reassessment of whether the industry’s current capex trajectory is sustainable if similar performance can be delivered more cheaply. More broadly, successive Chinese releases are eroding the scarcity premium embedded in proprietary models, accelerating a shift toward commoditisation, tighter margins and faster global diffusion as open-weight systems lower barriers to entry.

At the macro level, this could encourage faster, wider and cheaper adoption of AI which will be more positive for productivity. However, it also raises the risk of a capex overcycle in the US if returns on AI infrastructure come under pressure, while also intensifying geopolitical fragmentation as competing technology stacks evolve. So an absolutely fascinating development to watch. It’s hard to underestimate its importance. 

Back to the more mundane, and for the week ahead, the ECB decision on Thursday and the global flash PMIs on Friday will be the main macro highlights. Alongside this, a new Prime Minister in the UK today, and a heavy run of global earnings will keep markets busy, with key reports from Alphabet, Tesla, Intel, SK Hynix and SAP, among others, offering an important read on tech as we see a major wobble in the sector. 

In the US, the calendar is comparatively quiet, with Fed officials in blackout ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting next week. Thursday brings initial jobless claims, which we expect to continue signalling a stable labour market, consistent with the recent downward trend in both initial and continuing claims. This week’s release coincides with survey week for payrolls, which gives it slightly more importance. On Friday, the July flash PMIs will be the main focus. 

The week begins today with the UK seeing a change in leadership as Andy Burnham takes office as Prime Minister, with ministers beginning to be appointed, and policy plans starting to take shape. Tomorrow, UK labour market data will be released, followed by Wednesday’s June inflation report, where our UK economist expects headline CPI to ease to 2.70% year-on-year, core CPI to 2.55%, and services inflation to moderate to 3.45%. The UK week concludes on Friday with retail sales, the GfK consumer confidence index, and the Bank of England’s DMP survey, all of which will provide further colour on the consumer backdrop. Elsewhere in Europe, tomorrow sees the release of the German and Eurozone ZEW surveys, while Thursday’s ECB decision is the key focal point. Markets are currently pricing a hold, which aligns with our European economists’ expectations, with a further rate increase more likely in September. The ECB will also publish its bank lending survey tomorrow and its consumer expectations survey on Friday, offering additional insight into credit conditions and inflation expectations.

In Asia, the main focus will be on Japan, where Wednesday’s trade balance will provide an update on external dynamics, followed by Friday’s national CPI. Our Japan economist expects core CPI to rise to 1.7% year-on-year, with core-core inflation edging up to 1.9%, pointing to a gradual firming in underlying price pressures. Elsewhere, Australia’s labour force survey on Thursday will be the key regional release.

Finally, the Q2 earnings season accelerates significantly over the week. Momentum gets going tomorrow with a broad set of financials and industrials reporting including Novartis, Charles Schwab and General Motors. Wednesday is one of the busiest days, with major technology names such as Alphabet and Tesla reporting alongside IBM, ServiceNow and Texas Instruments, as well as a range of European corporates including Banco Santander and Deutsche Boerse. Thursday continues the heavy flow with Intel, SK Hynix and SAP among the highlights, alongside a wide range of US and European names including Roche, Nestlé, Lockheed Martin and BNP Paribas. The week concludes on Friday with results from American Express, NextEra Energy and Verizon, among others.

Recapping last week now, geopolitics remained top of the agenda for markets, with a sharp rise in oil prices as the strikes between the US and Iran showed no sign of easing. Indeed, Brent crude oil prices ended the week up +15.91% (+4.59% Friday) at $88.10/bbl, marking their biggest weekly jump since April. So that revived fears about a more persistent inflation shock, particularly with European natural gas prices also rising, and the front-end future rose +19.95% last week (+5.79% Friday) to its highest level since March at €58.01/MWh.

Geopolitical fears also interacted with fresh concerns around the AI trade, which meant that equities took a hit around the world. That was particularly clear for chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index down -9.97% last week (-1.63% Friday), marking its biggest weekly decline since the week of the Liberation Day tariff announcements last year. Moreover, that meant the index moved into a bear market, having now shed -20.23% since its closing peak back on June 22. In turn, that coincided with other equity declines, with the S&P 500 down -1.55% (-1.01% Friday), and Japan’s Nikkei also had its biggest decline since the week of Liberation Day, falling -6.44%. However, European equities were relatively resilient, with the STOXX 600 up +0.07% over the week (-0.34% Friday).

As all that was going on, US Treasuries rallied last week thanks to a softer than expected US CPI print. So that meant investors priced out the chance of a July rate hike, which fell from 34% to 14% over the course of the week. Meanwhile, the 2yr Treasury yield fell -2.9bps (+3.8bps Friday) to 4.18%, and the 10yr Treasury yield fell -1.3bps (-0.5bps Friday) to 4.55%. But whilst inflation fears fell back in the US, they returned strongly in Europe thanks to the rise in energy prices, with the 1yr Euro inflation swap up +46.9bps last week to 2.50%. So sovereign bond yields moved higher across the continent, with the 10yr bund yield up +6.0bps (-0.8bps Friday) to 3.12%. 

Finally, the dollar index weakened -0.19% last week, as investors dialled back the prospect of an imminent Fed rate hike, while gold fell below $4,000 for the first time this year before ending the week at $4,017/oz (-2.49% on the week). Otherwise, credit spreads mostly widened, with US IG (+1bps) and HY (+2bps) spreads rising marginally, along with Euro IG (+1bps) and HY (+3bps).

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 08:33

Breaking Down The $655 Million World Cup Prize Money

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is awarding $655 million in performance prize money, making it the richest tournament in the competition’s history. Every stage of the tournament came with a larger financial reward, giving teams another incentive to advance as far as possible. Performance prize money has increased nearly 50% since 2022, when FIFA awarded $440 million.

This Markets in a Minute graphic, created by Visual Capitalist's Julia Wnedling, in partnership with Terzo, breaks down how the $655 million performance prize pool is distributed across every stage of the tournament. From group stage participants to the eventual champion, it shows the earnings of every qualifying country.

Spain Takes Home the World Cup

Spain captured the 2026 FIFA World Cup title and the tournament’s top prize of $50 million, while runner-up Argentina earned $33 million. It marks Spain’s second World Cup championship after previously lifting the trophy in 2010, capping off an impressive tournament run that also included victories over Belgium and France in the knockout stage.

The final remained scoreless through 90 minutes, despite Spain controlling much of the play and Argentina finishing regulation with 10 men. The deadlock finally broke in the 106th minute, when Ferran Torres scored just after the start of the second period of extra time.

Raising the World Cup Stakes

England ultimately earned $29 million by defeating France 6–4 in the third-place playoff. Bukayo Saka scored a hat trick as England survived a four-goal French comeback. France collected $27 million, while Kylian Mbappé scored twice and finished the match as the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer.

The four quarterfinal exits each earned $19 million. Morocco lost to France. Belgium fell after Mikel Merino scored Spain’s winner in the 88th minute. Norway led England through Andreas Schjelderup, but two Jude Bellingham goals completed a comeback. Switzerland pushed Argentina into extra time before falling.

Reaching the Last Eight Pays Off

Advancing deep into the World Cup delivers meaningful financial rewards. Teams eliminated in the Round of 16 received $15 million. Reaching the Round of 32 was worth $11 million, compared with $9 million for a group stage exit.

The expanded 48-team format means more nations share in FIFA’s record prize pool. Still, every knockout victory unlocks a larger payout, making each match increasingly valuable.

Every Win Counts

World Cup prize money has never been higher, reflecting the tournament’s growing commercial success. But for national federations and organizations alike, maximizing value isn’t just about generating more revenue. It’s also about making the most of every dollar that’s earned.

That’s true in business as well. While companies focus on growing the top line, improving profitability often starts with controlling the costs hidden in everyday contracts.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 08:25

Largest Reactor Fleet Owner Backs Shipyard Prefab Model With Gas-To-Nuclear Plan

Constellation Energy already runs the largest nuclear fleet in the United States and has spent the last couple of years signing big power deals with data center operators and retailers to restart reactors and keep existing plants online longer. 

With Microsoft taking the restarted Three Mile Island unit and Meta locking up output from Clinton, Constellation is now looking for developers to help them bring new capacity online faster.

Their most recent move is a strategic equity investment in Blue Energy through Constellation Technology Ventures (CTV). This targets Blue Energy's shipyard-based prefabrication and project financing model for small modular reactors. 

As we reported earlier on the GE Vernova collaboration, Blue Energy is advancing a phased gas-to-nuclear approach at a planned Texas site. Two GE Vernova gas turbines would deliver roughly 1 GW starting around 2030, with the steam supply later shifting to GE Vernova Hitachi BWRX-300 reactors targeting up to 1.5 GW of nuclear capacity. Early site works could begin this year ahead of a final investment decision in 2027. 

The CTV check marks the first investment by that unit in an American nuclear developer focused on SMRs. Terms remain undisclosed, but based on CTV’s deal size across prior energy tech investments ($4 million in SWTCH), this one likely lands in the single-digit millions.

The real value sits in the partnership signal rather than the capital itself. Constellation runs 21 reactors across multiple sites with capacity factors above 90%. An operator with that track record lending credibility to a new deployment model carries more weight than another venture check.

Blue Energy's approach attacks the construction and financing bottlenecks that have plagued new nuclear for decades. Large modules get fabricated in existing shipyards using robotic methods borrowed from offshore oil, gas, and LNG projects, then barged to site. The design keeps a clean split between the nuclear island supplied by the vendor and the balance-of-plant work done under fixed-price commercial contracts. 

That structure, paired with the NRC-approved licensing topical report, is meant to unlock project financing on a meaningful chunk of capex for the first time on a nuclear project. 

The goal remains power in 48 months or less via the gas bridge instead of the conventional decade-plus timeline.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 07:45

The DSA & The Myth Of Scandinavian Socialism

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

This week, Darializa Avila Chevalier was asked if there has ever been a “successful model of socialism anywhere in the world outside the United States in terms of both human rights and widespread economic justice.”

The member of the Democratic Socialists of America responded by citing Sweden and Norway.

It is a common false claim made by socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders and others.

I address the claim head-on in Rage and the Republic. 

DSA figures have been claiming that the socialist measures that they are pushing are proven successes in other countries. They often raise the Scandinavian myth. Here is an excerpt from Rage and the Republic:

‘Leaders such as Senator Bernie Sanders have heralded the alleged success of “democratic socialism” in Europe, a pitch that is obviously taking hold with many younger Americans. Sanders and others often refer to the prosperity of Scandinavian socialism, including Sweden and Norway. It is a dangerous myth that is promulgated by many in the media. The question is not whether Scandinavian socialism can work in the United States (it cannot) but whether Scandinavian socialism can work in Scandinavia. Sweden is a particularly curious choice as a model for democratic socialism. In reality, Sweden shows not only the success of capitalism but also the limits of socialism even in a relatively small nation. Sweden turned away from the type of socialist theories increasingly in vogue in the United States.

…

The Scandinavian countries also differ from the United States in other key ways. For example, Norway has largely sustained large public welfare systems through oil revenues. The country imposes a corporate income tax rate of 78 percent on extractive activities to fund its public welfare programs…

Countries like Denmark and Sweden are strong adherents to capitalist principles and are listed among the most capitalist nations on Earth. Indeed, leaders often express surprise by American references to their socialist principles. In 2015, the Danish Prime Minister Lars Rasmussen observed, “I know that some people in the U.S. associate the Nordic model with some sort of socialism. Therefore, I would like to make one thing clear. Denmark is far from a socialist planned economy. Denmark is a market economy.” Likewise, Social Democratic Minister of Finance Kjell‐Olof Feldt stated “That whole thing with democratic socialism was absolutely impossible. It just didn’t work.”

As I discuss, these countries are not only committed to capitalism but also ranked among the most free-market economies in the world. These countries are also very different from the United States:

“When socialism was tried in larger nations in Europe, such as France under François Mitterrand, it failed, and capitalist measures had to be restored. In 2025, the populations of Denmark, Sweden, and Norway are approximately 5.9 million, 10.6 million, and 5.6 million—smaller than many American states.”

The DSA and the American left, including many in the media, continue to sell the public a bill of goods on the success of Scandinavian socialism. Ironically, it is the type of disinformation that the left often cites to justify greater censorship.  Despite denials from these very countries, socialists in the United States continue to spread this false claim that there is a socialist paradise over the ocean where collectivists labor in picturesque Nordic fishing villages.

The promulgation of such myths is a central feature of Marxism.

Lenin stressed that “we must not confine ourselves exclusively to propaganda in the narrow sense of the word.” Stalin likewise warned that “If our Party propaganda for some reason or other goes lame…then our entire state and Party work must inevitably languish.”

The fact is that socialism has repeatedly failed throughout history.

The only way to get a people to embrace it is to rewrite that history. That is precisely what we see not only in the United States, but in the recent claims of incoming British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who condemned the privatization policies of Margaret Thatcher: “The country surrendered control of the essentials — housing, water, energy, transport — and left people exposed to higher costs.” What he does not mention is that she followed the collapse of socialist policies under Labour Prime Minister James Callaghan in 1977–78 during the so-called “winter of discontent,” which I also discuss in the book.

Chevalier is a true believer who has praised Marxism and the concept of “seizing the means of production.” She won her primary despite comments bragging about her using the American flag to wipe her hands and criticizing the dating of white women as Black and Arab men “Fetishizing ugly colonizer women.”

Given that history, the adoption of the Scandinavian socialism myth is par for the course. Like Zohran Mamdani, she is rallying young, disillusioned, college-educated voters who are told that their struggles stem from the failures of the free market. Instead, they are offered free stuff and the illusion of an economic nirvana where lattes and Pilates are virtually costless.

Indeed, the Scandinavian socialism myth is so enticing that I expect Scandinavians must wonder where they can also find it.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the New York Times best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 07:20

Iran Says Two Tankers Exploded In Hormuz Chokepoint As Ship Traffic Near Standstill

Visible maritime traffic through the Hormuz chokepoint remained subdued into the new week after Iranian forces allgedly targeted tankers attempting to transit the narrow waterway, including routes close to Oman. This comes as the US and Iran have been locked in a dangerous tit-for-tat escalation that has entered its ninth day.

UK maritime authorities reported an unverified vessel fire near Oman late Sunday. Reuters reports that Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed two crude oil tankers exploded and were immobilized while using what Tehran called an unsafe southern route in the Hormuz.

Bloomberg ship-tracking data shows that vessels crossing the Hormuz chokepoint have come to a near standstill as Gulf escalation has surged for the ninth day, with Iran targeting not just the maritime chokepoint but also US military assets at Jordan's Aqaba airport with ballistic missiles, as well as US assets at Kuwait's Al-Adiri camp and Ali Al Salem Air Base, and in Syria. Iran also hit civilian infrastructure, notably power generation and water desalination plants in Kuwait.

There is a power struggle for control over the critical strait. The US launched a series of airstrikes along the waterway to degrade Iran's offensive capabilities.

US Central Command said overnight that it had begun "a new wave of strikes" aimed at "degrading" Iran's ability to attack ships in the strait.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was quoted overnight by the outlet as saying that US forces would continue targeting Iran while it attacks global shipping lanes in the strait.

"The Strait of Hormuz are international waterways, and they continue to launch against the ships in that international waterway," Rubio said.

He continued, "As long as Iran insists on controlling an international waterway, we're gonna have to respond to that. The United States always remains open to a diplomatic solution."

In markets, Brent crude futures are flat this morning around 06:30 ET. Brent trades around $88 a barrel, while WTI futures are around $82.

Brent briefly traded above the $90 handle for the first time since early June in the overnight hours but has since reversed the move.

"A near-term escalation in the Mideast now appears to be the key left tail risk which could tip the index lower. Broader infrastructure strikes or a Houthi-led Red Sea disruption likely sees Brent over $100 again," UBS analyst Justinus Steinhorst noted, adding, "The desk's preferred hedges are long Mideast Resilient {UBXEMERR} and E&Ps {UBXEXPO}."

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 06:55

My early Monday morning reads:

• 2% of What? Redefining inflation is not the way to achieve price stability. Warsh confirmed that 2% is the target level, but he did not, and has not, confirmed that PCE prices are the yardstick. Aside from reading out results from the FOMC projections that he chose not to participate in, Warsh has not referred to PCE prices once during his confirmation hearing, first press conference, a central banker panel in Sintra, or two days of congressional testimony. PCE inflation is the yardstick at the Fed. That’s a glaring omission for a Fed Chair, and for a person who likes catchphrases, it’s unlikely to be an oversight.  (Stay-At-Home Macro)

• SpaceX Slump Set to Wipe Out $1 Trillion in Value as Shares Slide: SpaceX shares tumbled on Friday, erasing more than $1 trillion in market value from the rocket and artificial intelligence giant’s all-time high. The stock fell 5.4% to $123.99 per share, giving the company a market value of $1.63 trillion. The value stood at $2.64 trillion at the close on June 16, its third day of trading.(Bloomberg).see also SpaceX Bonds Are Trading Like Junk Bonds. What Does That Mean for Investors? (The Globe and Mail)

• Nondiversifiable Risks in Investment Portfolios: The risks you can’t diversify away — geopolitical, systemic, regulatory — and why pretending they don’t exist is the most common failure in portfolio construction. (CFA Institute)

• Can Netflix Become (More Like) YouTube? Faster Than… YouTube is poised to unify the streaming championship belts… (Spyglass)

• How Trump’s Policies Cost US Travel Industry $40 Billion:  Tariffs, toughened borders, and visa policies have pushed the US into a tourism trough. (Bloomberg)

• The Americans Striking It Rich in the Data-Center Buildout: One family sold its struggling farmland for $22 million, joining a new class of multimillionaires who are cashing in on the AI data-center boom.  “Their 89-acre farm in this rural town of 4,000 might be worth more than $20 million. To Marilee and David Kiliti, that ridiculously high price sounded like a bunch of deer bologna.” 96 families in Salem Township, Pa., sold about 1,700 acres to data-center developer QTS for $586 million. (Wall Street Journal)

• Disaster Rehearsal: Faking death at O’Hare’s triennial airplane crash simulation. Morley Musick’s essay in n+1 on the strange ritual of preparing for catastrophes — the drills, the kits, the mental models — and what it reveals about how we process anxiety in an era of compounding crises. (n+1)

• Punctuation: A Generational Divide: Judith Shulevitz on commas, periods, and what texting has done to them. Can parents ever learn to text like their kids? Should they even try? (The Atlantic)

• Could That Museum Visit Help You Live Longer?: The data on arts engagement and longevity is surprisingly robust. Regular museum visits correlate with longer life — even after controlling for income, education, and health. A psychiatrist says engaging with the arts not only helps biologically. It can also make you feel more alive. (Wall Street Journal)

• This World Cup sealed it: Messi is the best male athlete of all time: Messi is the best player at the World Cup, and the best male athlete of all time. Ryan O’Hanlon makes the data-driven case (ESPN)

Video of the day: Why AI Can’t Take Your Job

Be sure to check out the latest Masters in Business with Jason Wenk, founder and CEO of Altruist, a modern custodian built as a clean sheet from the ground up, fully integrated with artificial intelligence. He began his career at Morgan Stanley before launching Retirement Wealth Advisors, and then FormulaFolios. The through-line of his career has been creating lower-cost, tech-enabled, financial advice.

 

Source: BIS

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

The Next Phase Of Shrinkflation: Rolling Blackouts

Via SchiffSovereign,

The lights went on at approximately 3pm on September 4, 1882 in New York City.

Thomas Edison (with major funding from JP Morgan) had spent roughly two years building the first-ever commercial power plant, located in Manhattan’s financial district. Its total capacity was about 600 kilowatts… barely enough to power a single rack of GPUs today.

But at the time it was nothing short of miraculous.

Edison’s coal-fired DC power plant initially served just 82 customers, and electricity was nothing more than a luxury flex by the ultra-wealthy.

But over time– especially after Westinghouse and Tesla’s alternating current became the gold standard– electrification rates in the United States skyrocketed.

At the turn of the 20th century, hardly anyone had electricity in their homes. By 1920, it was about 35%. By the time the Great Depression hit in 1929, roughly 70% of US homes were electrified, and urban areas were nearly 85%.

The systems were surprisingly reliable given the rudimentary technology of the day.

Blackouts were not infrequent, but they were generally short and localized, often just affecting a few streets or houses.

And typically the biggest reason for a short, localized blackout was simply because electrical demand was increasing more rapidly than the grid could create new supply. More and more homes were being electrified, and, after World War II, consumer appliances like refrigerators and air conditioners began consuming more power. We’ll come back to that.

In response, the industry began looking for efficiencies to be able to scale more quickly. They built larger, beefier power plants and connected their independent grids to be able to share reserves and load balance.

In short, they planned for speed and scale. Not resilience. And the end result was an incredibly complex network that was highly vulnerable to systemic failure.

That failure first came at 5:16pm on November 9, 1965: a minor maintenance issue near Niagara Falls triggered a chain reaction across the entire grid. 30 million people went without power– most until the next morning, some for a few days.

It was a wake-up call… and the first catastrophic grid failure of many more to come. So naturally the government stepped in to “fix” it.

With the electrical grid’s vulnerabilities laid bare, Congress held inquiries and hearings. New rules and regulations were passed. And, before long, the US electrical industry became a confusing alphabet soup of state, local, and federal authorities– ISOs and RTOs, FERC, PJM, MISO, CAISO, SPP, and so many more.

Layers and layers of bureaucratic agencies didn’t fix anything. But technology was quite fortunately on America’s side, and over the past few decades, advances (like LED bulbs) made consumer appliances more energy efficient. Power plants also became more productive.

In fact, today the US consumes less electricity per capita than it did in 1995. And the grid produces much more power.

But this balance is starting to change rapidly.

We all know the story of data centers and their insatiable appetites for energy. Electricity is such a critical input, in fact, that data centers are typically described by their power consumption.

For example, Softbank recently announced 5GW of new data centers in France. The famous StarGate project in the US is targeting 10GW. Facebook is building a 5GW data center in Louisiana.

And various plans over the next few years go in to several hundred gigawatts.

This trend is similar to the 1950s– utility companies struggled to keep up with surging demand from US consumers who were plugging in air conditioners and refrigerators for the first time.

But supply and demand in the electricity market is a funny thing. Demand can surge very quickly… just like we’ve seen over the past year or so. But electrical supply grows more slowly.

New power plants take years to build. Thanks to the aforementioned alphabet soup, the regulatory burden alone is a minefield.

And most electrical producers aren’t willing to go through the effort, risk, and capital expenditure unless they’re sure the new power plant will be profitable. And profitability depends on the price of electricity.

That’s where politicians and the regulators have stepped in to screw it all up.

Naturally, with demand soaring and supply constrained, electricity prices are rising. You’d think that politicians would respond by making it easier for utilities to build new power plants, i.e. reduce the regulatory and permitting process to increase electricity supply.

But no. Instead, they’re capping prices.

Last year, a whole lot of state officials and federal regulators got together to set a ceiling for certain wholesale electricity prices to roughly $333 per megawatt-day.

Clearly, they’re responding to voters’ demands to rein in inflation and reduce the cost of living.

Unfortunately, $333/MW-day isn’t high enough to justify investment in new power plants.

Existing power plants are old. Sometimes extremely old. They already own their land, and their construction loans are all paid off. So $333/MW-day is sufficient for them to pay for fuel, conduct maintenance, and turn a small profit.

But $333 isn’t enough to build a new plant– to cover the additional costs of construction, land purchases, permitting, etc.

In fact, the regulators themselves estimate that electricity prices need to be about $500/MW-day (i.e. 50% higher) to justify investment in new power plants.

This means there won’t be enough new commercial power plants built to sufficiently supply the grid. In fact the northeast grid (known as PJM) is already in a 6.5 GW deficit against its own reserve requirement for the first time ever, increasing the chance of failure next summer.

This is essentially a form of shrinkflation. i.e. paying the same amount of money but getting less for it. We’ve all seen it at grocery stores and restaurants– same price, smaller portions.

In this case, electricity prices are supposedly remaining flat. But you’re getting less for it– potential grid failure.

All because the maze of political and regulatory authorities won’t do the obvious thing and make it easy for new power plants to be built.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 06:30

Western Nuclear Industry Bounces Back With Progress Across Small And Large Designs

After last month's report from Goldman Sachs on the ongoing global nuclear renaissance listed only a couple headlines for the western nuclear industry, June saw a significant bounce back as the industry saw progress across the microreactor landscape and the larger SMR and national grid-scale designs.

The Micro Reactor Industry saw a huge achievement with the exceeding of the goals set by President Trump in the 2025 Executive Orders, with four microreactor designs obtaining criticality by July 4th.

The AP1000 reactor, which is emerging as America's flagship grid-scale design, also saw significant multi-billion-dollar support from the Department of Energy when the Office of Energy Dominance Financing put up a potential $17.5 billion in funding for long-lead components and other pieces/parts of the reactor supply chain.

Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Lee reviews headlines across the nuclear industry for June. 

New reactor progress and announcements North America

6/2/26 - United States - The New York Power Authority has launched a solicitation to develop at least 1 GW of advanced nuclear capacity in Upstate New York, seeking proposals for both large reactors and SMRs, while also committing $40 million to nuclear workforce development.
 
6/8/2026 - United States - FERC approved Constellation’s request to transfer 760 MW of interconnection rights to the Crane Clean Energy Center, helping support the planned restart of the former Three Mile Island Unit 1 and improving its ability to deliver power to the grid ahead of major transmission upgrades. 

6/9/2026 - Canada - Bruce Power’s refurbished Bruce 3 reactor has returned to service in Canada, more than seven months ahead of schedule, following a major component replacement project that extends the unit’s operating life by over 30 years.
 
6/16/2026 - United States - The US NRC has approved an 80‑year operating life for the two reactors at Georgia Power’s Edwin I. Hatch nuclear plant, extending operations into the mid‑2050s. The licence renewal follows a review completed in under 12 months and supports the continued operation of one of Georgia’s key nuclear generating assets. 

6/23/2026 - Canada - Canada has unveiled a national strategy that positions nuclear energy as a key part of its future energy mix, supporting the deployment of new large-scale reactors, SMRs, and an expanded domestic nuclear supply chain. 

6/24/2026 - Canada - AtkinsRéalis has formally begun the US licensing process for its CANDU reactor technology, submitting a Notice of Intent to the NRC and marking the start of pre‑application engagement. The move supports potential deployment of the 700+ MW Enhanced CANDU 6 reactor in the US. 

6/24/2026 - United States - The US DOE has conditionally committed up to $17.5bn in loans to support procurement of long‑lead components for up to 10 Westinghouse AP1000 reactors, aiming to accelerate reactor deployment and strengthen the domestic nuclear supply chain. 

Europe

6/16/2026 - Sweden - Nordic Baseload Power has applied for Swedish state support to build two large-scale reactors (~2.5 GW) at the former Barsebäck nuclear site, marking the fourth application under Sweden’s new nuclear support programme. 

6/29/2026 - Germany - A group of former German nuclear plant managers and experts has urged the government to restart Germany’s nuclear power plants, arguing that reactivation is technically feasible and could improve energy security and electricity affordability. 

6/30/2026 - Slovakia - Fuel loading has begun at Slovakia’s Mochovce 4 reactor, marking the start of active commissioning for the country’s fourth nuclear unit. The unit has now entered the testing and startup phase ahead of commercial operation. 

7/8/2026 - Czech - The Czech Ministry of Industry and Trade said the Dukovany new‑build project remains on schedule one year after contracts were signed with KHNP, with geotechnical surveys completed, the first conceptual design submitted, and key Czech suppliers selected. The project is currently focused on licensing, permitting, and infrastructure work ahead of a targeted 2029 construction start. 

7/9/2026 - UK - The UK government and EDF have agreed terms to extend the operating life of the Sizewell B nuclear plant by 20 years to 2055, with EDF committing £800 million of refurbishment investments to support long‑term operation.

Asia and other

6/5/2026 - Japan - Japan has proposed replacing aging nuclear reactors to maintain its nuclear generation capacity, with the government targeting the replacement of up to 14 reactors by the 2050s as older units retire. 

6/10/2026 - Russia - Russia is targeting a 2027 construction start for the BN‑1200 fast reactor at Beloyarsk, with site preparation under way and licensing expected in 2027. The project is currently targeted for completion in 2034.

6/19/2026 - India - India’s Tarapur Units 1 and 2, the world’s oldest operating nuclear reactors, have returned to the grid following extensive modernization and refurbishment. The two units, which had been offline since 2020, received major safety upgrades and regulatory approval to resume operation. 

7/6/2026 - China - Taipingling Unit 2 has been connected to China’s grid for the first time, marking a key commissioning milestone for the 1,116 MWe Hualong One reactor. The unit is the second of six planned reactors at the Guangdong site and is expected to enter commercial operation in 2H26. 

7/13/2026 - China - Changjiang Unit 3 has achieved first criticality, marking the startup of the 1,100 MWe Hualong One reactor at the Changjiang nuclear plant in China’s Hainan province. The unit has now entered the commissioning phase ahead of grid connection and commercial operation.

SMR announcement tracker

6/3/2026 - UK - X‑energy has submitted its Xe‑100 high‑temperature gas‑cooled reactor for the UK’s GDA process, marking the start of formal regulatory review. The submission supports X‑energy and Centrica’s plans to develop up to 6 GW of new nuclear capacity in the country.

6/4/2026 - United States - US SMR developers announced a series of partnerships to advance reactor deployment, including Day & Zimmermann supporting pre‑construction and above‑ground construction for Deep Fission’s Gravity reactor, while Sciaky will manufacture components for NX Atomics’ SMR platform using additive manufacturing technology. 

6/5/2026 - Sweden - Blykalla has applied for Swedish government financing for its planned six‑reactor SEALER SMR plant in Norrsundet, the first advanced nuclear project submitted under Sweden’s new nuclear support framework. The proposed plant would have up to 330 MWe of capacity and could enter operation in the early 2030s, subject to approvals and investment decisions. 

6/5/2026 - Uzbekistan - Uzbekistan has marked the start of construction of its first SMR, with a ceremony for first concrete at the Jizzakh nuclear project. The project features Russia’s RITM‑200N reactor technology and represents a key milestone in Uzbekistan’s nuclear power programme. 

6/5/2026 - United States - Antares Nuclear’s Mark‑0 microreactor has achieved first criticality at Idaho National Laboratory, becoming the first reactor to reach this milestone under the US DOE’s Reactor Pilot Program. The demonstration validates the company’s microreactor technology and marks an important step toward future advanced reactor deployment. 

6/9/2026 - Romania - DP World has launched a feasibility study into deploying SMRs at Romania’s Port of Constanța, evaluating whether nuclear power could support the port’s long‑term energy needs, growth, and decarbonisation goals. 

6/11/2026 - United States - DOE has approved the PDSA for Oklo’s Aurora reactor at Idaho National Laboratory, a key regulatory milestone under the DOE’s Reactor Pilot Program. The approval advances the project toward deployment by validating the reactor’s preliminary safety basis. 

6/12/2026 - Sweden - Studsvik has applied for Swedish state support to develop up to 1.4 GW of SMR capacity in southern Sweden, with potential projects at Nyköping and Valdemarsvik based on light‑water reactor technology. The company is targeting first operation in the second half of the 2030s. 

6/15/2026 - Sweden - Videberg Kraft has selected Rolls‑Royce SMR technology for its planned nuclear project on Sweden’s Värö Peninsula, with plans to deploy three SMRs. The project would be Sweden’s first new nuclear power plant in more than 40 years, with the first unit targeted for the mid‑2030s. 

6/17/2026 - UK - Core Power has launched a feasibility study to assess BWXT’s mPower SMR for use in floating nuclear power plants, evaluating the technical, regulatory, and commercial viability of deploying the 195 MWe reactor in shipyard-built floating power platforms. 

6/17/2026 - UK - TerraPower’s Natrium reactor has entered the UK’s GDA process, marking the start of formal regulatory review for the 345 MWe sodium‑cooled fast reactor. The move advances TerraPower’s plans for potential deployment in the UK and follows the company’s submission to the UK regulators earlier this year. 

6/19/2026 - United States - Elementl Power has selected GE Vernova Hitachi’s BWRX‑300 SMR technology for a proposed 1.5GW nuclear project in Ohio, with plans for up to five reactors at a site. The company has already filed for grid interconnection and is targeting construction in 2030 and completion of the first unit in 2034. 

6/22/2026 - United States - Valar Atomics’ Ward 250 microreactor has achieved criticality under the US DOE’s Reactor Pilot Program, becoming the second reactor to meet the programme’s July 2026 target. The 5 MW TRISO‑fuelled, helium‑cooled reactor completed a zero‑power criticality demonstration at the Utah San Rafael Energy Lab. 

6/24/2026 - UK - Holtec and EDF have submitted a proposal to deploy up to four SMR‑300 reactors at the former Cottam power station site in the UK. The companies have also agreed to form a joint venture to advance the project, which would repurpose the former coal plant site for new nuclear generation. 

6/29/2026 - Sweden - Blykalla and Hitachi Energy have signed an MoU to support deployment of Blykalla’s lead‑cooled SEALER SMRs, combining reactor technology with Hitachi’s expertise in electrification, grid integration, and digital energy systems. 

6/30/2026 - Poland - Orlen Synthos Green Energy has applied for a Contract for Difference to support the construction of 14 BWRX‑300 SMRs across three sites in Poland, marking a key financing milestone for its SMR programme. 

7/2/2026 - UK - SGE and a consortium including Samsung C&T, Laing O’Rourke, Aecon and Google Cloud have proposed deploying 14 GE Hitachi BWRX‑300 SMRs across three UK sites, representing 4.2 GW of capacity. The privately financed project targets first commercial operation in 2034, with the initial site planned to host six reactors and two additional sites hosting four reactors each. 

7/2/2026 - United States - Deployable Energy’s Unity demonstration reactor has achieved initial criticality at Idaho National Laboratory, becoming the third US microreactor to reach the milestone ahead of the DOE’s 4 July target. 

7/3/2026 - Finland - Finland’s nuclear regulator has completed an international safety review of Steady Energy’s LDR‑50 SMR design, with regulators from the Czech Republic, Poland, Sweden, and Ukraine participating in the assessment. The review found no fundamental obstacles to further development of the reactor concept, while providing feedback to support future licensing work. 

7/7/2026 - UK - Chiltern Vital Group and Cambridge Atomworks have signed a LoI to explore building the prototype Odin microreactor at the Berkeley Green Science and Technology Park in England. The project would support testing and regulatory development of the molten‑salt‑cooled microreactor, with Cambridge Atomworks targeting an operational prototype by 2030. 

7/7/2026 - United States - Aalo Atomics’ Critical Test Reactor achieved initial criticality at Idaho National Laboratory, becoming the fourth US microreactor to reach the milestone by the DOE’s 4 July 2026 target. 

7/8/2026 - United States - Deep Fission has received its prototype reactor canister at its Kansas pilot site, marking a key milestone for development of its Gravity reactor, which is designed to place a nuclear reactor in a borehole about a mile underground. The canister will be used in the company’s proof‑of‑concept program to validate installation, infrastructure, and deployment processes ahead of a future commercial demonstration. 

7/8/2026 - USA, Japan & South Korea - The US, Japan, and South Korea have signed a trilateral agreement to accelerate SMR deployment in third countries, initially focusing on the Indo‑Pacific region. The framework aims to coordinate financing, supply chains, licensing, and industry partnerships to support fleet‑scale SMR deployment and expand access to nuclear energy. 

7/10/2026 - United States - Argentina has announced plans for a privately financed 300 MWe ACR‑300 SMR at the Atucha site, with US‑based Meitner Energy planning to invest $1.2bn in the project. The reactor would be the first commercial ACR‑300 and the first nuclear reactor in Argentina financed entirely with private capital, marking a major investment in the country’s nuclear sector. 

Global reactor critical updates

In the month of June, there have been few changes to new reactor construction starts, grid connections, shutdowns, or restarts.

Global reactor construction tracker

Fuel announcements

6/1/2026 - United States - Cameco and Orano have agreed to acquire TEPCO’s remaining 5% stake in the Cigar Lake uranium mine, giving the two companies full ownership of the project. Following the transaction, Cameco’s stake will increase to 57.4% and Orano’s to 42.6%, further consolidating ownership of one of the world’s highest‑grade uranium mines.

6/2/2026 - United States - Urenco has announced a multi‑billion‑dollar investment to build a new uranium enrichment plant at its New Mexico site, adding 2.1 million SWU of capacity and increasing output by nearly 50%. Construction is planned to begin in 2029, with first production targeted for 2032, supporting US nuclear fuel supply as reactor deployment grows. 

6/8/2026 - Mongolia - Orano has started construction of the Zuuvch Ovoo uranium project in Mongolia, following a 2025 investment agreement with the Mongolian government. The project is expected to produce ~2,500 tonnes of uranium per year over a 30‑year mine life. 

6/9/2026 - India - Fuel for the initial loading of Kudankulam Unit 4 has been manufactured and accepted by NPCIL, marking a key milestone toward commissioning of the VVER‑1000 reactor. 

6/9/2026 - Australia - Ampera will use thorium sourced from Australia to fuel its advanced microreactor systems, supporting its strategy to vertically integrate fuel supply and in‑house TRISO fuel production. 

6/12/2026 - Canada - Denison Mines has marked the start of site preparation and early construction at the Phoenix ISR uranium project in Saskatchewan, following final regulatory approvals and a positive investment decision. The project is targeting first uranium production in mid‑2028. 

6/17/2026 - UK - The UK will guarantee a £210 million loan to support Urenco’s supply of enriched uranium to Energoatom, helping secure fuel for Ukraine’s nuclear fleet over the next two years. 

6/17/2026 - Sweden - Sweden’s parliament has approved amendments to nuclear legislation that streamline permitting for uranium mining and open up more coastal locations for potential nuclear projects, further supporting the country’s plans to expand nuclear power and domestic fuel supply. 

6/18/2026 - United States - Shine and Newcleo have agreed to collaborate on recycling used nuclear fuel, linking Shine’s fuel‑reprocessing technology with Newcleo’s reactors and MOX fuel capabilities to support a closed nuclear fuel cycle. 

6/19/2026 - United States - Centrus has agreed to supply HALEU to Oklo for up to five Aurora reactors, with deliveries expected to begin in 2029 from its Ohio enrichment facility. The agreement strengthens fuel supply certainty for Oklo’s planned reactor deployments and is among the first large‑scale commercial HALEU supply agreements in the US. 

6/24/2026 - Russia - Rosatom is studying the construction of a high‑capacity nuclear fuel reprocessing plant with an initial capacity of 400 tonnes per year, with investment and site selection decisions expected by the end of 2026. 

6/25/2026 - United States - Lightbridge has removed the first batch of its irradiated fuel samples from Idaho National Laboratory’s Advanced Test Reactor, marking a key milestone in the testing of its advanced nuclear fuel technology. The samples will now undergo post‑irradiation examination to support fuel performance validation and future regulatory licensing efforts. 

6/26/2026 - Italy - Italy’s Sogin has begun re‑encapsulating 64 uranium‑thorium fuel elements at the Rotondella site for long‑term dry storage, marking a key decommissioning milestone for the facility. 

6/26/2026 - United States - US uranium production more than doubled in 2025 to 1.39mn lbs U3O8, the highest level in nine years, according to the EIA, also uranium exploration and development drilling reached their highest levels since 2013. 

6/30/2026 - United States - Urenco USA has brought a fifth new enrichment cascade online at its New Mexico facility, as part of a program to add 700,000 SWU of capacity by early 2027. The expansion is progressing ahead of schedule and on budget.

7/1/2026 - United States - The US NRC has renewed the source materials licence for enCore Energy’s Dewey Burdock uranium project for another 20 years, completing the federal permitting process for the South Dakota ISR project. The company is now pursuing final state permits ahead of construction and future production.

7/3/2026 - United States - Radiant has delivered the first TRISO fuel shipment for testing of its Kaleidos microreactor at Idaho National Laboratory, enabling full‑power, full‑temperature testing this summer. The testing programme will support performance validation and help advance the reactor’s commercial licensing pathway.

7/9/2026 - India - Australia and India have finalized the arrangements needed to enable Australian uranium exports to India for peaceful civilian use under their long‑standing nuclear cooperation agreement. The deal opens a new uranium supply source for India and supports its plans to expand nuclear power generation. 

7/9/2026 - Finland - Framatome has signed an eight‑year fuel supply agreement with TVO for Finland’s Olkiluoto 3 (OL3) reactor, strengthening long‑term fuel security for the plant. The deal also includes an option to adopt Framatome’s GAIA fuel design and supports longer operating cycles of up to two years at OL3. 

Uranium pricing and volume trackers

Spot pricing remained broadly range-bound. Spot U3O8 prices softened through early June, easing from ~$86/lb to the mid‑$84s before recovering into the mid‑$85s through the middle of the month. Prices drifted modestly lower again toward month‑end, finishing June around ~$85/lb and remaining largely unchanged through early July. Market activity was subdued throughout the period, with trading volumes concentrated in a limited number of transactions and overall price movements remaining relatively narrow.

Term pricing firm. Term pricing strengthened through June, with the long‑term price increasing to $94/lb by end of June from $93/lb at the start of the month, reinforcing the view that longer term pricing remains well supported despite softer spot market activity. Market engagement continued across the term market, with utilities evaluating mid‑ and long‑term supply requirements and several new contracting opportunities emerging. Overall, longer‑dated price indicators remained resilient, with forward prices continuing to reflect supportive long‑term market fundamentals.

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 05:45

Europe's Heatwave Is Becoming An Energy Crisis

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

• Europe's heatwave is disrupting energy and transport, with low river levels restricting barge traffic on the Rhine and driving up shipping costs for fuel, coal, and other goods.

• High river temperatures have forced France to cut nuclear power generation, reducing electricity output as reactors face cooling constraints.

• The extreme weather is adding to Europe's energy challenges, increasing inflationary pressures and threatening economic growth alongside ongoing disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

The intense early summer heatwave in Europe is warming the biggest rivers and drying up their water levels, disrupting energy deliveries, power generation, and key supply chain routes.

The heatwaves in Europe started as early as June, with record-breaking temperatures for weeks on end in Europe’s biggest economies, Germany and France.

As a result, rainfall was severely limited, and key inland transportation river routes were affected by navigation restrictions, with curbs on the freight volumes a barge can ship. This, in turn, has raised shipping costs and added additional strains to the economies at a time when the protracted Strait of Hormuz crisis is already hiking Europe’s energy costs and inflation.

On top of economic and inflationary effects in Germany, the heatwave actually curbed electricity supply in France.

Early this week, France’s nuclear power generation was slashed by 6.4 gigawatts (GW), or about 14% of the country’s total power demand for the day, amid the heatwave that hiked river temperatures and limited the ability of the nuclear power plants to use the water to cool reactors.

This is not the first time France has had to curb output at reactors and limit nuclear power production due to high summer temperatures. 

France still exported electricity to its neighbors despite reduced nuclear power output, but these events appear to be becoming more frequent as heatwaves last longer with more extreme temperatures.

The same goes for disruption to shipping on the 800-mile-long Rhine River, the biggest inland shipping corridor in Europe, which is critically important for Germany’s and central Europe’s supply of coal, diesel, and goods.

The Rhine handles an enormous amount of supplies for Europe, including fuel and coal, adding to supply chain issues that the Hormuz crisis has created for sea routes.

The Rhine River, which runs northwest from Switzerland through Germany, France, and the Netherlands into the North Sea, is a major petroleum product transportation corridor in Europe. Due to the heatwaves and drought, the levels on the river are low and have now become too shallow for many barges shipping petroleum products to pass. Barges are not being fully loaded to keep them lighter on the water, which lifts shipping costs and delays shipments of coal, fuels, and other goods.

The Kaub gauge, on the Middle Rhine between Koblenz and Mainz, sits at the shallowest chokepoint on the river. It sets the maximum draft and, therefore, the laden weight for every barge moving between the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp ARA seaports and the industrial hinterland of the Rhine valley, shared by Germany, France, and Switzerland.

The previous major crisis with low Rhine water levels was in 2022, and in 2018 before that.

The 2022 critically low Rhine levels occurred when the first energy crisis hit Europe and its economy after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

This summer, the low Rhine level due to scarce rainfall and intense heatwaves coincides with the Middle East crisis to mount additional pressure on industry, energy supply and prices, transportation costs, and ultimately, inflation.

Water level at the Kaub chokepoint is now at its lowest level in decades for mid-July, which has hiked the freight cost to ship diesel from Rotterdam to southern Germany by more than 50% in the past week.

The early heatwaves and low river levels could pressure Germany’s industry and economy, which has just managed to shake off the initial shock from the Middle East crisis.

Back in 2018, the low Rhine levels in November 2018 led to a 1.5% decline in Germany’s industrial production, which in turn lowered Germany’s GDP by 0.4%, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

This year, the end-June heatwave cost the German economy more than $6.8 billion, or 6 billion euros, an exclusive analysis by economic research firm Prognos for German business daily Handelsblatt showed this week.

In the future, Germany could see three or four intense heatwaves each summer with temperatures exceeding 35 C, or 95 F. Prognos has estimated that Germany could lose 1 billion euros, or $1.14 billion, on each day in which temperatures exceed 35 C. Thus, the annual damage to the German economy could top 20 billion euros, or $23 billion.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 03:30

China Is Building A System To Track Asteroids That Could Potentially Smash Into Earth

China is expanding its planetary defense efforts with a new asteroid detection network aimed at spotting dangerous space rocks long before they become a threat to Earth, according to the South China Morning Post.

SCMP writes that the planned system will pair a network of powerful ground-based telescopes with satellites in orbit, giving scientists the ability to monitor the sky around the clock. Space-based sensors can also detect asteroids approaching from the sun's direction—objects that are especially difficult for Earth-based observatories to see.

Li Mingtao, the chief scientist overseeing the project, said there are currently no known asteroids expected to strike Earth. Even so, he cautioned that many medium-sized objects capable of causing widespread regional destruction have yet to be discovered.

According to Li, astronomers have already identified more than 95% of near-Earth asteroids larger than one kilometer in diameter, which are large enough to trigger global consequences. But the search is far less complete for smaller bodies. Scientists estimate they've located only about 45% of asteroids roughly 140 meters across—large enough to wipe out a city or devastate an entire region.

Li said these missing asteroids represent the biggest concern because they are difficult to detect until they are relatively close, and some can approach from blind spots created by the sun's glare.

If the system identifies a potentially hazardous object, it will analyze the asteroid's orbit, estimate the odds of an impact, and notify authorities if the risk reaches a dangerous level.

China has also stepped up research into planetary defense in recent years, hiring specialists and refining software used to predict collision risks. Officials believe the most effective defense remains a kinetic impact mission—crashing a spacecraft into an asteroid to slightly alter its course before it reaches Earth. Other proposed methods, such as lasers, particle beams, or using a spacecraft's gravity to tug an asteroid off course, remain largely theoretical and would generally require much longer to work.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 02:45

How Long Will Burnham Last?

Authored by Mark Littlewood via DailySceptic.org,

Over the past decade our political system has chewed through and spat out Prime Ministers at a faster rate than Premier League football teams burn through managers. As Andy Burnham enters 10 Downing Street, why would we think there is any reason he will do much better – in terms of longevity – than his immediate predecessors? I’m keeping my eyes peeled for a bookmaker offering odds on Burnham being removed from office before the next election rather than at it.

As the Labour Party slowly coalesced around a consensus that Starmer simply had to go there was an oft repeated refrain of, ‘We have to get this right first time if we are going to do it, we only have one chance.’

The theory here seems to be that ditching a leader – however unpopular – and finding a fresh one is not the sort of thing that the electorate approve of. They have passed their judgement at the ballot box and are usually unimpressed when the powers-that-be decide to second guess that decision.

More generally, ditching an incumbent leader against their will gives the impression of chaos and instability. It gives such an impression precisely because chaos and instability are typically what have brought about the decision to make a change.

The circumstances around removing a Prime Minister are always different but can be broadly batched into three categories – they are based on aesthetics, ideology or health. The last two are easier to explain to the public than the first. Margaret Thatcher was removed for ideological reasons – she was unwilling to retreat on the hugely unpopular poll tax and was also pursuing a European policy that a large chunk of her party disapproved of. On the basis of needing to wholly reset our approach to the EU, David Cameron jumped and Theresa May was pushed.

These sorts of switches of leader seem to have a fair chance of working. Indeed, each of Thatcher’s, Cameron’s and May’s successors went on to retain office at a General Election.

But changing Prime Minister just on the basis that the outgoing leader wasn’t very good and without a clear and explicit shift in an area of policy seems fraught with electoral danger. Callaghan and Brown went on to lose elections having entered office mid-term. Both had different approaches to their predecessor but there wasn’t a single, specific and explicable change in policy.

Similarly, the switch from Johnson to Truss and then swiftly onto Sunak didn’t appear to improve the standing of the Conservatives amongst the electorate. In fact, it probably worsened it.

Burnham finds himself in the same vague, messy scenario. He didn’t launch a coup against Starmer because he fundamentally disagrees with him on, say, the war in Iran or Net Zero or membership of the ECHR. Instead, it’s simply based on Labour’s abysmal poll ratings, Starmer’s catastrophic approval ratings and the hope that a fresh approach to ‘comms’ can somehow revive the party’s fortunes.

It’s early days (indeed, we are not yet even in the early days of a new administration as I write these words), but the evidence of recent polls suggests little or no Burnham bounce for Labour.

The governing party remains stubbornly stuck on only around 20% in the polls. If there was a wave of national enthusiasm – or even a noticeable trickle – about Burnham entering Downing Street, one would have expected some sort of uplift in the polls in anticipation of it happening. So far, nothing.

Burnham’s supporters will insist – or at least hope – that once we see their man in action as our actual PM the electorate will warm to him. He is certainly a more charismatic politician and a better communicator than Starmer, but I’m sceptical that this will meaningfully move the dial of public opinion.

If our new Prime Minister has a markedly different economic strategy to that of the last two years, I’ve yet to hear it (or at least I’m yet to understand what the various vague analyses and prescriptions put forward actually amount to).

He lamented a “series of wrong turns in the 1980s” – his teenage years – which, he believes, sent the country on the path to ruin.

“Political power was centralised and economic power was privatised,” he said in his coronation speech as Labour leader on Friday.

“The country surrendered control of the essentials, housing, water, energy, transport and left people exposed to higher costs.”

He lumps the Thatcher years and everything that followed, Tory or Labour, as “four decades of the neoliberalism that began in the 1980s [which] have not been kind to the places that built our party”.

His solution is “control” – more state ownership, more diktats from politicians.

All of this suggests to me that we are likely to continue on the pathway of taxes being dialled up, growth being low, debt increasing and public spending ballooning (particularly welfare spending). I suspect if there is any Burnham honeymoon at all, it will be very brief.

If this is so, what happens if in a year or so the Labour Parliamentary party is still staring down the barrel of electoral oblivion? Having decided to twist rather than stick when it came to Starmer, might the same apply to Burnham? In such a scenario, it will likely be too late to change policy direction in any dramatic fashion – the party will be locked in as a government that seeks to tax and spend to the maximum. However, desperate folk in politics are prone to throw the dice. Having set the precedent of throwing the captain overboard because the polling numbers look bleak it can easily become habit-forming. Historically, the Conservatives have had a much greater propensity for regicide than Labour, but there’s no persuasive reason why the latter couldn’t adopt the same psychopathy.

This is why I’m looking forward to a book opening on Andy Burnham’s departure date, even if it seems a bit mean-spirited to do so right at the start of his reign.

If I can find 3/1 or longer that he will be out by the end of 2028, I will certainly be snapping up those odds.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 02:00

'Convergence': Secret Labs Already Deployed Lifelike Female Androids While Public Watches Optimus Toy Demos

Authored by Madge Waggy,

Technology has an unusual habit of revealing itself twice.

The first version appears quietly, almost unnoticed, inside research papers, patent filings, laboratory demonstrations and corporate presentations that attract little attention beyond specialists.

The second version arrives years later, polished into a consumer product that suddenly convinces everyone the breakthrough happened overnight. History repeatedly favors this illusion. By the time society begins discussing a technological revolution, thousands of engineers have already spent years solving problems the public never realized existed.

That gap between discovery and public awareness has become one of the defining characteristics of the twenty-first century, and nowhere is it more apparent than in the race to build machines that no longer resemble machines at all.

During the last three years alone, humanoid robotics has advanced at a pace few analysts considered realistic even a decade ago. Tesla continues developing Optimus as a general-purpose humanoid assistant, Figure AI has demonstrated robots capable of performing increasingly complex industrial tasks while collaborating with advanced language models, Boston Dynamics has introduced an entirely electric generation of Atlas after retiring one of the most recognizable research robots ever built, and companies such as Sanctuary AI, Agility Robotics and Apptronik are openly competing to place human-shaped machines inside factories, warehouses and commercial environments. Simultaneously, breakthroughs in computer vision, reinforcement learning, synthetic materials and multimodal artificial intelligence have dramatically reduced the distance between experimental prototypes and practical deployment. None of these developments belong to science fiction anymore. They are unfolding in plain sight, documented through academic publications, investor briefings and live demonstrations watched by millions around the world.

Yet an uncomfortable pattern has begun emerging alongside this extraordinary progress. Every major technological leap seems to generate a parallel conversation taking place far from universities and conference halls, unfolding instead across anonymous forums, encrypted chat groups and obscure corners of the internet where speculation often grows faster than evidence. Some theories disappear within hours because they collapse under the weight of obvious contradictions. Others survive for years despite the complete absence of proof, not because they successfully explain reality but because they ask questions that remain surprisingly difficult to dismiss. One recurring idea has become particularly persistent: if companies publicly demonstrate machines capable of walking, reasoning and manipulating objects with human-like dexterity today, what might exist inside research facilities whose work will not become public until five or even ten years from now?

No credible evidence has ever answered that question.

The absence of evidence, however, has never prevented the internet from trying.

Among the countless stories that circulate through speculative technology communities, one in particular continues resurfacing despite never being independently verified. It describes an invitation-only exhibition allegedly organized inside an anonymous research complex where visitors were shown humanoid entities unlike anything previously demonstrated in public. According to archived discussions that periodically reappear online, the event itself was almost deliberately ordinary. There were no theatrical presentations, no dramatic product launches and no executives standing beneath oversized screens announcing the future of artificial intelligence. The building resembled a research facility more than a convention center, its corridors illuminated with clinical precision and stripped of nearly every identifying feature that could reveal who financed or operated the installation. Whatever attracted attention that day was not the architecture. It was what stood behind the glass.

The descriptions vary in countless small details while remaining strangely consistent about the central image. Long rows of transparent containment chambers reportedly filled an immense exhibition hall, each enclosing a female humanoid whose appearance challenged the very definition of robotics. Visitors allegedly expected exposed actuators, composite frames or polished metallic joints similar to those displayed by contemporary engineering prototypes. Instead, they found figures possessing skin that reflected light with subtle biological imperfections, naturally distributed hair, nearly imperceptible facial asymmetry and eyes that appeared disturbingly capable of maintaining silent attention. Some accounts insisted they were sophisticated androids. Others argued they were advanced synthetic organisms. A few dismissed the entire story as an elaborate digital art project designed to exploit growing public fascination with artificial intelligence. None of these interpretations has ever been supported by verifiable evidence, yet none has managed to erase the story either.

Perhaps that persistence says less about the photographs than it does about the era in which they allegedly appeared.

Only a few years ago, generating a convincing human face required painstaking digital artistry. Today, artificial intelligence routinely produces images, voices and video sequences capable of deceiving experienced observers under ordinary viewing conditions. Simultaneously, roboticists are steadily solving challenges once considered decades away from practical implementation. Artificial muscle systems continue improving. Synthetic skin capable of sensing pressure and temperature is advancing through laboratories across Europe, Asia and North America. Neural networks increasingly interpret visual information with remarkable precision, while large language models have transformed natural conversation into something machines perform with astonishing fluency. Each breakthrough, taken individually, appears understandable. Together they create an unsettling possibility that public imagination often races ahead to explore long before reality catches up.

The modern conspiracy landscape thrives inside precisely that narrow space between demonstrated capability and undocumented possibility. It rarely invents technology from nothing. Instead, it observes genuine scientific progress, extends every trend several years into the future and asks whether society is already witnessing carefully selected fragments of a much larger picture. Throughout history, classified aviation projects, cryptographic systems and surveillance technologies have all existed years before their official acknowledgment. That historical precedent fuels endless speculation whenever another rapidly advancing field begins transforming the world. Humanoid robotics, perhaps more than any emerging technology today, naturally invites the same questions—not because hidden laboratories have been proven to exist, but because technological acceleration has repeatedly surprised even the experts attempting to measure it.

THE EXHIBIT THAT ARRIVED BEFORE THE FUTURE

Technology rarely introduces itself with a dramatic announcement. More often, it arrives disguised as another research paper, another patent application, another demonstration watched by a few thousand engineers before disappearing beneath the next day's headlines. Looking backward, every technological revolution appears inevitable. Looking forward, it almost always resembles coincidence. That contradiction has become increasingly difficult to ignore over the past several years as artificial intelligence and humanoid robotics have advanced at a pace that even optimistic forecasts struggled to anticipate. What seemed extraordinary in 2020 became commercially viable by 2024, and by 2025 discussions that once belonged exclusively to science fiction had quietly entered boardrooms, government agencies, and manufacturing plants around the world.

Unlike previous waves of automation, today's race is no longer centered around machines built exclusively for factories. The objective has shifted toward creating systems capable of operating naturally inside environments originally designed for people. That distinction changes everything. Companies such as Tesla continue refining Optimus, Figure AI has demonstrated humanoid robots performing industrial tasks alongside advanced language models, Boston Dynamics has transitioned to an entirely electric version of Atlas, while Sanctuary AI, Apptronik, and Agility Robotics are openly competing to deploy human-shaped machines into warehouses, logistics centers, hospitals, and commercial environments. None of these developments are hidden behind classified documents. They are documented through public demonstrations, engineering conferences, investor presentations, and peer-reviewed research. The world is not waiting for humanoid robots to arrive. They have already arrived; the only remaining question concerns how quickly they become ordinary.

 

What makes this timeline remarkable is not any single breakthrough, but the compression between them. Technologies that previously evolved over decades are now progressing within months. Computing power continues expanding, neural networks become more efficient with every iteration, synthetic materials increasingly mimic biological tissue, and robotic dexterity improves through reinforcement learning systems trained inside simulated environments before ever touching the physical world. Several research groups are now experimenting with electronic skin capable of detecting pressure, temperature and texture, while others are developing artificial muscle fibers designed to reproduce the flexibility of biological movement. Independently, each achievement appears incremental. Viewed together, they begin resembling pieces of a much larger puzzle whose final image remains frustratingly incomplete.

Throughout history, transformative technologies have almost always existed in limited forms before becoming public knowledge. Stealth aircraft remained classified long before their official acknowledgment. Modern cryptographic systems evolved inside government programs years before entering consumer electronics. Satellite reconnaissance, advanced computing and even the internet itself all followed similar trajectories, transitioning gradually from restricted environments into everyday life. None of this proves that humanoid robotics follows the same path, yet it explains why discussions surrounding undisclosed research facilities continue appearing wherever technological acceleration outpaces public understanding.

Among the countless stories circulating across futurist forums, one recurring narrative refuses to disappear despite the complete absence of verifiable evidence. According to these accounts, anonymous images allegedly depicting a private exhibition began surfacing shortly after several major robotics announcements captured international attention. The photographs themselves were unremarkable at first glance. There were no dramatic explosions of light, no cinematic laboratories filled with exposed machinery and certainly no science-fiction aesthetic designed to impress an audience. Instead, they portrayed an environment whose greatest source of discomfort came from its overwhelming normality. Clean architectural lines, carefully controlled lighting, visitors quietly observing transparent containment chambers, and inside those chambers, female humanoids whose appearance blurred the distinction between biological life and engineered design so effectively that many viewers struggled to identify where one ended and the other supposedly began.

What fascinated online communities was not the imagery itself but the possibility it represented. If the photographs were fabricated, they reflected an extraordinary understanding of contemporary robotics and human anatomy. If they depicted an elaborate artistic installation, the creators had achieved precisely the emotional response they intended. Yet if—purely as a matter of speculation—they represented a glimpse into technology more advanced than anything publicly demonstrated, they suggested something profoundly unsettling about the pace at which artificial intelligence and embodied robotics might already be evolving beyond public awareness.

WHEN MACHINES STOP LOOKING LIKE MACHINES

Perhaps the most significant shift occurring today has little to do with processing power or mechanical engineering. It concerns perception. Early industrial robots never attempted to resemble humans because efficiency mattered more than familiarity. Modern humanoid research pursues the opposite objective. Engineers increasingly recognize that machines designed to work alongside people benefit from recognizable gestures, natural movement and intuitive communication. Artificial intelligence no longer exists solely inside software; it is gradually acquiring a physical presence capable of navigating environments originally built for biological life. That transition introduces questions extending far beyond engineering specifications. It touches psychology, ethics, economics and identity itself.

Researchers studying the uncanny valley have documented for decades that human beings respond differently to machines once they become almost—but not entirely—indistinguishable from living people. Small imperfections that might otherwise pass unnoticed suddenly become psychologically significant. A smile held a fraction too long. Eyes that maintain uninterrupted focus without natural micro-adjustments. Facial muscles moving with perfect synchronization rather than subtle asymmetry. These details rarely appear frightening in isolation, yet together they produce an instinctive discomfort difficult to explain rationally. As synthetic materials improve and artificial intelligence becomes increasingly sophisticated, the boundary responsible for that sensation continues narrowing.

Whether humanity ultimately embraces lifelike humanoids or resists them remains impossible to predict. What can be stated with confidence is that the underlying technology continues advancing regardless of public opinion. Investment in embodied AI has accelerated dramatically, governments have begun drafting regulatory frameworks for autonomous systems, and major technology companies increasingly describe robotics as one of the next defining industries of the coming decade. Against that backdrop, it becomes easier to understand why fictional stories about hidden laboratories, invitation-only exhibitions and technologies existing several years ahead of public demonstrations continue capturing the imagination of millions. 

BEYOND THE GLASS

Whether the exhibition ever existed eventually became the least interesting question.

The discussions that followed took on a life of their own, gradually shifting away from anonymous photographs and toward something far more unsettling. Engineers began debating theoretical manufacturing limits. Neuroscientists questioned whether synthetic cognition would eventually require emotions rather than simply simulating them. Military analysts speculated about autonomous decision-making systems, while ethicists found themselves asking an entirely different question: if a machine could imitate every observable characteristic of human behavior, what objective measurement would still separate the creator from the creation?

Within the universe surrounding the alleged exhibition, researchers supposedly referred to the project using an unusual expression that later appeared across several archived discussion boards: "Convergence." The name carried no technical explanation, only a philosophical one. According to the mythology that slowly developed online, the objective had never been to construct machines capable of replacing human labor. That milestone had already become commercially achievable through ordinary automation. The real ambition was allegedly something considerably more difficult—to construct artificial beings capable of existing inside society without ever being recognized as artificial in the first place.

The concept itself had already escaped.

The documents discussed by online communities described laboratories unlike conventional research facilities. Engineers supposedly worked alongside psychologists, behavioral scientists, linguists, neurologists and artists, each responsible for solving a different aspect of the same impossible equation. Mechanical movement alone could never convince an observer they were looking at genuine life. Human beings unconsciously detect thousands of microscopic behavioral patterns every hour without realizing it. Eye contact lasts for predictable intervals. Facial muscles contract unevenly. Breathing changes with emotion. Tiny pauses interrupt ordinary conversation. Even silence possesses rhythm. 

An anonymous character allegedly summarized the problem in a single sentence that became strangely popular among the hidden communities based on these controversial topics:

"People don't recognize humanity because of perfection. They recognize it because perfection never survives long enough to become human."

THE FINAL PROTOTYPE WAS NEVER A MACHINE

As years passed, technological progress accelerated alongside real industry developments. Every genuine breakthrough in artificial intelligence strengthened public conviction regarding the rapid pace of innovation. Public demonstrations showed humanoid robots becoming smoother, quieter, and more capable each year. Language models learned to hold increasingly natural conversations. Synthetic voices lost their unmistakable mechanical cadence. Artificial vision systems improved beyond what many experts believed possible only a few years earlier. Observers interpreted every public announcement as confirmation that society was witnessing technologies whose foundational frameworks had already been quietly developed over the preceding years.

That progression reflected a psychological phenomenon repeatedly observed throughout technological history. Human imagination rarely invents futures from nothing. Instead, it extends visible trends until they become predictable realities. Steam engines became locomotives before becoming intercontinental railways. Primitive computers became smartphones through thousands of incremental improvements rather than one miraculous discovery. In much the same way, the Convergence Program mapped a future assembled not through impossible inventions, but through the gradual integration of disciplines already advancing today.

According to unpublished data, the exhibition itself was never intended to impress investors or government officials. It served another purpose entirely. Visitors unknowingly became participants in a behavioral experiment. Cameras hidden throughout the exhibition allegedly measured eye movement, hesitation, emotional response, interpersonal distance and unconscious reactions as guests walked past each observation chamber.

Every moment of curiosity became data. Every expression of uncertainty refined the next generation of synthetic behavior.

The humanoids behind the glass were not being evaluated.

The observers were.

That single twist transformed the entire legend from an ordinary tale into something psychologically far more disturbing. It suggested that humanity had misunderstood the experiment from the beginning. 

This ongoing focus on rapid technological evolution reflects a broader recognition that modern civilization is crossing a significant historical threshold with profound long-term implications. Artificial intelligence is actively transforming key sectors, including education, medicine, finance, manufacturing, and scientific research. Concurrently, humanoid robotics continues to advance at an accelerated pace, while brain-computer interfaces are successfully progressing through human clinical trials. Furthermore, synthetic materials are increasingly replicating the functional properties of biological tissue. While each of these advancements represents an isolated milestone, their combined integration shapes a highly complex and rapidly changing socio-technological landscape.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 23:20