Bessent Unloads On Iran Leadership 'Rats,' Lists 5 Pressure Points As US Blockade Means Clock Is Ticking Summary

• US Treasury goes after Hormuz payment fees, sanctioning  three Iranian foreign currency exchange houses. Bessent issues pressure points against Iranian 'rats'.

• White House officials argue the current absence of fighting between Iranian & US forces means the 60-day timeline for Congressional approval (or US forces must leave) doesn't apply due to the ceasefire.

• Trump on Friday rejects Iran's latest revised proposal to Pakistan mediators. Nuclear issue not included: a non-starter, and focus is on ending the war. Israeli officials balk.

• Iran economically squeezed, signs of divided response among leadership, but surviving: "Weeks of conflict have aggravated Iran's dire economic problems, risking calamity after the war, but the Islamic Republic looks able to survive a standoff in the Gulf for now." (Rtrs)

• Alternative routes emerge: "Iran cannot be besieged; We have different ways to export and import," Iranian official says.

//--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 37% · No 64%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Trump Rejects Latest Iran Proposal

In fresh Friday words to reporters, President Trump says he is not satisfied with the latest proposal from Iran. He further stated that these negotiations "are not getting there right now." His main points via Newsquawk:

• Iran wants a deal, but i am not satisfied.
• Iran has no military left.
• Talks with Iran are by phone.
• Made strides in talks with Iran.
• Not sure we are going to get to a deal.
• Not happy with Italy or Spain on Iran.
• Iran leaders do not get along with each other.

Bessent Lists 5 Pressures Iranian 'Rats' Facing

US Treasury Secretary Bessent takes to X on Friday to again call Iranian leaders "rats" - which won't bode well for restarting stalled negotiations. He's busy boasting on the economic damage unleashed by the ongoing US naval blockade, writing: "It is very difficult for rats in a sewer pipe to know what's going on in the outside world. Some color for the Iranian Leadership as they literally sit in the dark." He then lists out the following:

1. The United States has complete control of the Strait of Hormuz.

2. There is a hard currency, i.e. U.S. dollar, shortage.

3. Food and gasoline rationing are in place.

4. The entire international community has turned against you.

5. The BLOCKADE will continue, until there is pre-February 27 Freedom of Navigation.

He also shared a WSJ article proclaiming that the Iranians have 'failed' to roll back the US military blockade, and that supposedly the clock is ticking on the government's ability to rule...

It is very difficult for rats in a sewer pipe to know what’s going on in the outside world. Some color for the Iranian Leadership as they literally sit in the dark:

1. The United States has complete control of the Strait of Hormuz.

2. There is a hard currency, i.e. U.S. dollar,… https://t.co/oNHVEvdNE4

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) May 1, 2026

Israel To Renew Bombing if Nuclear Issue Not Dealt With

The Netanyahu government is signaling that it will restart the bombing campaign if the nuclear issue is not resolved. It should also not be forgotten that 'denuclearizing' Iran by force has been a multi-decade priority of Prime Minister Netanyahu and the hardliners of Israel. These are the latest warnings out of the Israeli military establishment on Friday:

An Israeli military official says that if Iran's stockpile of more than 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% is not removed from the Islamic Republic, the entire latest war will be considered “one big failure.”

Israeli officials have said that this stockpile is sufficient for 11 nuclear bombs.

And the Times of Israel underscores further, "The senior officer says that if, as part of negotiations between the United States and Iran, no agreement is reached to remove the uranium stockpile and halt enrichment in the country, the achievements in the 40 days of fighting will have been for nothing." So this means that "If the nuclear objective is not achieved, then everything we did in Iran will be one big failure. The evil Iranian regime can pounce on the nuclear program," the official emphasized. And then the threat...

The officer adds that "if the uranium is removed from Iran through diplomatic means, we have done our part." However, if that does not happen, Israel would need to launch another operation in Iran to achieve the objective, they say.

Already Israel has demonstrated its immense influence over the decision to go to war in the first place.

US Treasury Hits Back Against Hormuz Tolls

The OFAC notice on ­Hormuz payment sanctions: Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is designating three Iranian foreign currency exchange houses and their associated front companies as part of Economic Fury and Treasury’s ongoing efforts to disrupt the Iranian regime’s financial lifelines that sustain its war effort.  Collectively, Iranian exchange houses facilitate billions of dollars in foreign currency transactions each year.  Because Iran primarily settles its oil sales in Chinese yuan, these exchange houses play a critical role in converting oil revenues into currencies that are more readily useable by the Iranian military and its partners and proxies. 

"Iran is the head of the snake for global terrorism, and under President Trump’s leadership, Treasury is moving aggressively, through Economic Fury, to sever the Iranian military’s financial lifelines," said Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent. "We will relentlessly target the regime’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds, and pursue anyone enabling Tehran’s attempts to evade sanctions."

War Powers: 60 Days

There's common agreement that today: Friday, May 1st, constitutes the 60-day mark on Operation Epic Fury. But President Trump and his administration are trying to sidestep the 1973 law which requires a president to withdraw troops within 60 days of notifying Congress of their deployment unless lawmakers formally authorize the military action as a declaration of war. Of course, thus far there's been no Congressional authorization, amid some six failed attempts to push through War Powers resolutions.

The administration is now arguing that the extended ceasefire itself, reached three weeks ago and then recently unilaterally extended by Trump, buys more time and allows the White House to avoid Congressional approval. Admin officials argue the absence in exchanges of fire between Iranian and US forces means the 60-day timeline doesn't apply.

"For War Powers Resolution purposes, the hostilities that began on Saturday, February ​28, have terminated," a Trump official has been cited broadly in US media as saying. The same perspective had first been put forward by Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth during his hearing before the House Armed Services Committee on Thursday:

Answering questions from senators on Thursday, Hegseth said: "We are in a ceasefire right now, which our understanding means the 60-day clock pauses or stops in a ceasefire."

The questioner, Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, responded: "I do not believe the statute would support that. I think the 60 days runs maybe tomorrow, and it's going to pose a really important legal question for the administration there."

The debate over mainstream airwaves is also about to grow fiercer as the war slides with no clear articulated grand US strategy...

Wow Scott Jennings blows up at Adam Mockler: “Get your fucking hand out of my face”

Mockler: We all know that Scott Jennings is more than happy to defend a war with a country that starts with letters Ira that we are currently failing that is going to put us trillions and… pic.twitter.com/NjYu6Ij5z1

— Acyn (@Acyn) May 1, 2026

Talks Back at Square One

Iran has reportedly submitted its latest revised proposal to Pakistan mediators as of Thursday night. It is a response to the latest US amendments to end the war, per Axios. So the conflict is two-months deep, talks are completely stalled, global energy transit through the Hormuz Strait is at a bare trickle to non-existent as the US naval blockade is enforced and while international vessels are still under looming threat of attack by Iran, and there's still no sign of an offramp coming anytime soon.

To review, and as we wrote previously, next fall's midterms staring Congressional Republicans in the face, there this increasingly uncomfortable trend: "The average price of one gallon (3.8 litres) of gasoline in the United States has reached $4.30, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), up from less than $3 before the February 28 start of the US-Israel war on Iran." President Trump's response to this in fielding questions in the Oval Office on Thursday was to tell reporters that ​gas ​prices would "drop like ⁠a rock" ​as soon ​as the Iran war ended. He said: "The [price of] gasoline and the oil will go down rapidly once the war’s over," and at one point emphasized prices would go down "like a rock."

Important development via Al Jazeera confirming that nuclear issue is a non-starter for Iran:

Proposals resurface: Tehran presented a new proposal to the Pakistani mediator yesterday, a diplomatic source told me. He added that nuclear negotiations will not succeed under these circumstances and that the focus will likely shift to ending the war.

Fresh activity on X:

Iran Squeezed But Surviving

We've been reporting on the collapsing Iranian rial and US officials' hopes that the engineered crisis and economic warfare would force Iranians into the streets to overthrow their own government - which is a plan that already failed to produce enough momentum previously, and even under heavy US-Israeli bombs.

Reuters on Friday describes, "Weeks of conflict have aggravated Iran's dire economic problems, risking calamity after the war, but the Islamic Republic looks able to survive a standoff in the Gulf for now, despite a U.S. blockade that has cut off energy exports." It's an enduring stalemate, with the Iran war and Hormuz closure now being a game of geopolitical chicken, where each side believes it can inflict more pain on the other while being the one to outlast.

There's been talk of Pakistan having opened up its border, as well as increased use of Caspian trade routes - especially for vital goods like food, medicines, and factory or other parts. But WSJ freshly explains that "Alternative trade routes won’t be sufficient. Iran has been working to send some of its oil by rail to China and to import foodstuff by road from the Caucasus and Pakistan. Only 40% of Iran’s trade can be redirected away from blockaded ports, the Iranian Shipping Association said Thursday via the Fars news agency, which is affiliated with Iran’s security services."

The U.S. Air Force logistics bridge into the Middle East continues at a steady pace with at least 11 C-17A "Globemaster IIIs" active this morning. pic.twitter.com/x0ffxvqHpT

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) May 1, 2026

The report then speculates on what's going on internally in Iran's government and leadership, and calculations on how much economic pain Iranian society can take as renewed fighting looms, also as Israel is said to be preparing for more rounds of attack:

The risk of a spiraling crisis has split Iran’s political system between moderates such as President Masoud Pezeshkian and hard-liners including Saeed Jalili, a former presidential candidate who leads Iran’s most conservative faction.

The moderates believe in holding fire and negotiating a favorable deal with President Trump, whom they view as eager to get out of the messy war as soon as possible. They worry Iranians are growing tired of the conflict after an initial nationalist uptick.

“The regime has to do something to break this deadlock,” Saeid Golkar, who studies Iran at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. “Moderates want a deal because they think more destruction is political suicide,” he said.

While some Iranian officials have touted the country has more of its air force left than what the Pentagon asserts, it remains that Tehran doesn't appear capable of inflicting serious damage on the significant US naval blockade, other than through asymmetric or drone warfare.

Caspian Sea alternative...

⭕️ Iran Focuses on Caspian Sea Transit Amid Hormuz Blockade

Iran’s Food Industry Associations Union says there is currently no food security crisis in the country, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed — with only four vessels passing through yesterday, according to a… pic.twitter.com/teYL8iuMGm

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) April 27, 2026

More Latest Developments

via Newsquawk

• US President Trump is expected to make a decision on the path forward [on Iran] in the coming days, NBC reported citing a US official.
• US President Trump said would not have approved enriched Uranium for Iran; needs guarantees Iran will not have a nuclear weapon ever. Hormuz blockade is 100% effective.
• A senior Trump administration official said that for War Power Resolution purposes, hostilities that began on February 28th have been terminated.
• Iranian Judiciary head said Iran does not accept negotiation based on imposition; adds Iran has never left the negotiating table, Iranian press reported.
• Iranian National Security Commission member Rezei said "we are currently in the second phase of the war with the enemy..the naval blockade is a continuation of the war.. we are not in a ceasefire situation now", Mehr reported.
• Full post: "Iran cannot be besieged; We have different ways to export and import. In a conversation with Mehr, Ebrahim Rezaei said: "The enemy has turned to our naval blockade after failing in the military war and direct confrontation, and we are currently in the second phase of the war with the enemy." In other words, the naval blockade is a continuation of the war that the Americans have started against us. So, we are not in a ceasefire situation now. A member of the National Security Commission of the Majlis, stating that the Americans do not have the operational capacity to blockade Iran by sea, said: "Our only access route for transit is not through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.".
• US CENTCOM Commander Cooper briefed President Trump for 45 minutes on new operational plans for potential strikes against Iran, Axios' Ravid reported citing sources.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said that it is not responsible to expect a quick conclusion of the negotiations and that the other party has not used the opportunity provided by Iran's proposal, must be ready for any eventuality. The US and Israeli regime are famous for breaking their promises and the biggest guarantee for not repeating the war is the power of Iran.
• Drone attack hits Iranian Kurdish opposition camp east of Iraq's Erbil, according to Reuters, citing security sources. via vv.
• The defense sound heard over Tehran is related to countering micro-birds and reconnaissance drones, via Tasnim.
• Air defence sounds are being heard in some areas of Tehran but reasons are unclear, Mehr News reported.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 12:25

Beijing Bad: Chinese Nationals Charged Building Meth Super Factory

Two Chinese citizens were indicted on by the DOJ on charges of conspiring to flood the United States with methamphetamine through a sophisticated, factory-style production operation, federal prosecutors announced this week.

Wenfeng Cui, 41, also known as “Vincen,” (no "t') and Fan Pang, 26, also known as “Jerry,” both nationals of the People’s Republic of China, were arrested in New York City on February 2, 2026, after allegedly meeting with undercover sources and providing detailed instructions on the chemical synthesis of methamphetamine and the operation of custom-built industrial machinery designed to mass-produce the drug.

The unsealed indictment, announced by U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton and DEA Special Agent in Charge Cindy Marx of the Special Operations Division, charges the pair with one count of conspiracy to distribute methamphetamine (maximum penalty: life in prison), one count of conspiracy to import methamphetamine precursor chemicals with intent to manufacture narcotics (maximum 20 years), and one count of importation of methamphetamine precursor chemicals (maximum 20 years).

"Terrifying in its ambition"

According to the indictment and related court filings, over roughly eight months the defendants worked with chemists and engineers to research, design, and fabricate a technologically advanced methamphetamine production facility. Prosecutors allege the operation was capable of producing 400 kilograms of methamphetamine per day - or as much as 800 kilograms per production cycle - using automated industrial equipment.

“As alleged, the defendants worked with chemists and engineers to develop and deploy a sophisticated technology for the industrial production of methamphetamine capable of producing 400 kilograms of ‘meth’ every day,” Clayton said. “Their goal was terrifying in its ambition. The potential harm of this scale of methamphetamine on our streets should give all New Yorkers and all Americans pause. This Office will find and prosecute not only the dealers distributing poison to New Yorkers, but also the people behind those operations. Working with our international law enforcement partners, we will bring narcotics traffickers to justice — no matter where they are in the world, and no matter whether they commit their crimes in laboratories or on street corners.”

DEA Special Agent in Charge Cindy Marx added: “This indictment underscores the evolving threat posed by the synthetic drug market, in particular the increase we are seeing in methamphetamine. The level of technical expertise, industrial-scale machinery, and international reach revealed in this case is a stark reminder that today’s illicit drug trade is driven by innovation and relentless adaptation. The cartels are adapting, and so are we.”

Detailed blueprints and a “complete set of automated equipment”

Court documents describe an elaborate scheme in which confidential sources, acting at the direction of the DEA and posing as narcotics traffickers, communicated regularly with Cui and Pang to broker chemical and equipment deals.

In recorded conversations and meetings in June 2025, Cui claimed he could manufacture customized machinery within several months and produce refined versions in as little as 30 days. He offered training in assembly, installation, and operation, plus ongoing technical support on-site in Central America. Pang stated that a completed machine could be ready by July 2025 and would yield up to 800 kilograms of methamphetamine per cycle. The defendants also offered to sell approximately 40 kilograms of methylamine hydrochloride — a key List I precursor chemical — for $4,000, to be shipped from China to New York.

Cui later provided the sources with extensive technical materials, including:

• A spreadsheet listing dozens of industrial components (stainless-steel reactors, condensers, storage tanks, explosion-proof pumps, refrigeration and hydrogenation systems, centrifuges, and compressors);
• A nearly 5,000-word instruction manual specifying chemical proportions, pressure levels, and temperature controls;
• Production flowcharts and laboratory renderings.

By December 2025 the full-scale factory had been fabricated in China. Freight records show the equipment - weighing more than 21,120 kilograms and occupying nearly 200 cubic meters - was packed into multiple shipping containers and dispatched from a port in Shanghai. Cui sent sources photographs of workers loading the machinery, with one worker boasting that the “complete set of automated equipment” represented “the future of the global chemical industry.”

In January 2026, Cui forwarded additional photos and videos of the machinery nearing completion. The containers were later seized by law enforcement in a European country. The seizure was conducted with the assistance of the Polish Provincial Police of Wrocław, the Lower Silesian Branch of the National Prosecutors Office, and the German Zentrale Kriminalinspektion (ZKI) Osnabrück.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 12:20

 

 

No, not that regime change.

Swapping out Kevin Walsh for Jerome Powell will not matter much — to either inflation narrowly or the economy more broadly.

This is because the dominant theme in government policies – the one driving the overall economy – is less susceptible to FOMC action in this regime than in the last. The entire post-financial crisis era (aka the 2010s) was driven by monetary policy. The era during and after the pandemic was characterized primarily by fiscal policy.

This is why the Fed was unable to get inflation up to 2% in the 2010s; it’s also why the Fed has had such difficulty getting inflation down to 2% in the 2020s.

What made the GFC unique was the over-reliance on monetary policy. Following the credit-driven collapse of the financial crisis, the biggest risk to the economy was DE-Flation, that gravitational pull toward zero. Between ZIRP (2008 to 2015) and $3.6 trillion in quantitative easing (QE),1 Disinflation was the driver. PCE stayed under 2%, as soft job creation and wage gains kept consumer spending modest and inflation expectations anchored.

Congress abandoned its usual playbook and let the FOMC do all the heavy lifting. The post-GFC era was notable for a lack of fiscal stimulus – along with (not coincidentally) weak job and wage numbers.

QE and ZIRP primarily benefited capital, not labor; stock and bond holders did well; real estate owners saw a recovery, followed by price gains. Creditworthy individuals and healthy companies each refinanced their outstanding debt at low cost.

Credit was cheap, and Capital was practically free.

That changed during the pandemic era and beyond (2020–Present) as the opposite regime took hold. As Jerome Powell put it last August at Jackson Hole, “As it turned out, the idea of an intentional, moderate inflation overshoot had proved irrelevant.”

The foolish GFC fiscal austerity – including sequester and debt ceiling fights – was replaced with the largest peacetime fiscal expansion in U.S. history. This, combined with Powell’s “intentional overshoot,” helped to drive inflation up to 9%. Congress failed to engage on the fiscal side following the GFC; they wildly overcompensated for this error during the pandemic).2

The chart above is from Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid – he points out that  the change from lower inflation was inevitable:

“Whilst many thought we were in a permanent period of lower inflation, the post-pandemic era has shattered many of those assumptions. We had already passed peak globalisation and the point of most supportive demographics by the mid to late 2010s, foreshadowing future inflationary pressures. But then the record peacetime stimulus of the Covid period, combined with significant supply chain disruptions, accelerated this trend. Then a war-related energy spike in 2022 further cemented inflation, and in 2026 we’re faced with another energy shock from the Iran conflict.”

Forget Warsh for Powell; swapping Fiscal for Monetary policy is the regime change that matters.

 

 

 

Previously:
2% Inflation Target is Silly (July 26, 2023)

The Fed is Finished* * (…Raising Rates) (November 1, 2023)

Inflation Comes Down Despite the Fed (January 12, 2023)

Why Is the Fed Always Late to the Party? (October 7, 2022)

Five Ways the Fed’s Deflation Playbook Could Be Improved (Businessweek, August 18, 2023)

Who Is to Blame for Inflation, 1-15 (June 28, 2022)

 

 

__________

1. To say nothing of Operation Twist, and the use of forward guidance as a policy tool…

2. Raise your hand if you think you know why!

 

 

 

__________

1. To say nothing of Operation Twist, and the use of forward guidance as a policy tool…

2. Raise your hand if you think you know why!

 

The post Regime Change at the FOMC appeared first on The Big Picture.

Trump Escalates Tariffs On EU Vehicles To 25%, Accusing Bloc Of Trade Deal Violations

President Donald Trump announced Friday that the United States will raise tariffs on cars and trucks imported from the European Union to 25% starting next week, citing the EU’s failure to comply with a 2025 bilateral trade framework.

"I am pleased to announce that, based on the fact the European Union is not complying with our fully agreed to Trade Deal, next week I will be increasing Tariffs charged to the European Union for Cars and Trucks coming into the United States. The Tariff will be increased to 25%. It is fully understood and agreed that, if they produce Cars and Trucks in U.S.A. Plants, there will be NO TARIFF.”

Trump highlighted over $100 billion in ongoing U.S. auto manufacturing investments - a record, he said - and praised American workers staffing new plants set to open soon.

This sent Emini S&P futures cascading lower:

The move reverses a temporary reduction under the July 2025 U.S.-EU Framework Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade. That deal, reached after Trump initially imposed broad 25% Section 232 national-security tariffs on automobiles and parts in March 2025, lowered the rate on most EU vehicles and parts to 15% (retroactive to August 1, 2025) in exchange for EU commitments. These included cutting tariffs on U.S. industrial and agricultural goods, purchasing hundreds of billions in American energy, and increasing investment in the U.S.

EU implementation has lagged. The European Parliament conditionally approved enabling legislation in late March 2026 with multiple “safeguard” clauses - including a “sunrise” provision tying EU concessions to verified U.S. compliance, a suspension mechanism for new U.S. tariffs, and a sunset date in 2028. Tensions have simmered over non-tariff issues as well. In April 2026, U.S. automakers (GM, Ford, and Stellantis) warned that proposed EU safety and emissions standards could effectively block large U.S.-built pickup trucks and vans from the European market, a step they called inconsistent with the deal’s spirit of mutual recognition.

Ferrari also RACE'd lower on the news, one day after Vanguard added to their position.

The original 2025 auto tariffs were justified on national-security grounds and aimed at spurring domestic production; the administration has repeatedly offered exemptions or lower rates to allies that negotiate deals or shift manufacturing stateside. Trump’s post explicitly ties the new 25% levy to onshoring: EU brands that build in the United States face zero additional tariff.

The announcement comes amid broader Trump administration tariff actions that have reshaped global auto supply chains since January of last year. European manufacturers such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and Stellantis have already faced pressure from the earlier duties, prompting some to accelerate U.S. investment plans or adjust pricing. Industry analysts warn that a return to 25% could raise costs for consumers, disrupt transatlantic supply chains, and invite EU retaliation.

Developing...

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 12:00

Chevron, ConocoPhillips Warn About "Critical Shortages" Of Oil, Soaring Prices And Demand Destruction

This morning, most of the world's energy giants including Exxon and Chevron, reported stellar earnings as surging oil prices more than offset curtailed output. They also issued several loud warnings about the ongoing Hormuz blockage which is no closer to resolution. 

ConocoPhillips was first, warning of imminent “critical shortages” of oil for some nations as the Iran war that has crippled global energy flows enters its third month. 

The supply crunch that already pushed Brent prices up more than 50% in just nine weeks and just 2 days ago hit a multi-year high, appears likely to significantly worsen as soon as June, Chief Financial Officer Andy O’Brien told analysts during a conference call Thursday.

“The biggest challenge we’re about to face is that the markets sort of had a bit of a grace period initially when the tankers that left the Persian Gulf in late February were still on the water; now all of those have reached their destination,” O’Brien said, touching on a topic we discussed at the start of April.

“We are going to start to see some import-dependent countries potentially start to face critical shortages as we get into the June-July time frame” at which point the dreaded "demand destruction" kicks in. 

Oil refiners around the world have responded to the Iran war-driven drop Gulf oil shipments by curbing daily processing rates by roughly 8 million barrels, roughly the amount that has been blockaded by Iran, O’Brien noted. The knock-on effects of those cuts and the wider market disruption have included skyrocketing prices for everything from jet fuel and gasoline to fertilizer. 

The ConocoPhillips executive’s comments represented some of the starkest yet from a US oil producer with a global footprint that stretches from Alaska to Australia.  As for ConocoPhillips, the conflict that began with US-Israeli attacks on the Islamic Republic in late February prompted the company to reduce its full-year output forecast to the equivalent of 2.3 million barrels a day of oil, according to a statement. That figure, the midpoint of a forecast that includes a cut in supplies from Qatar, would be the lowest since the company’s 2024 takeover of Marathon Oil Corp. The energy giant on Thursday also raised spending guidance for the year by about 2% to $12.3 billion, based on the midpoint of the range, reflecting increased activity in the US Permian Basin, the most prolific oilfield in North America.

A second oil major to voice a warning this morning was Chevron, which echoed Conoco's concerns and said it is worried that global oil supplies are running dry as the US-Israel war with Iran enters its third month.

“That’s certainly the scenario we’re concerned about,” Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth said Friday in an interview on CNBC. “If we don’t get supply reestablished, demand will have to come down across different sectors of the economy. That’s the big concern that everybody has as we try to avoid a scenario where that becomes extreme.” And by demand destruction he, of course, means soaring prices, something which JPM also warned about - again - last night. 

The conflict has already eroded oil demand, and crude traders have warned of a bigger hit to come. There’s no get-around with the effective closure of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas typically flows, Wirth added.

“The global energy system continues to be under extreme stress,” he said, and it will only get worse as the ongoing drain of global inventories pushes them to operational stress levels, and then, hit the operational floor.

Source: JPMorgan

Wirth, who added that his company is speaking with the Trump administration on an “almost constant basis,” most recently this week when the White House spoke to the largest US companies about a prolonged blockade of Hormuz, was the latest US oil executive to share concerns that the world’s extra supply of oil stored on land and at sea could be running out if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 11:40

Oracle Joins Growing List Of AI Firms Supporting Pentagon National Security Work

Summary:

• Oracle Joins the growing list 

• OpenAI, Google, SpaceX/xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Reflection AI to deploy AI tools in "classified settings" at the Department of War

Oracle Added 

Department of War CTO posted on X that Oracle has officially joined the list of AI companies deploying AI tools to America's warfighters. 

BREAKING:

Following this morning’s announcement, the @DeptofWar is announcing that Oracle has officially agreed to join the list of AI companies deploying frontier capabilities on the Department’s classified networks. https://t.co/99nfrwXCzg pic.twitter.com/WwoA2aLJui

— Department of War CTO (@DoWCTO) May 1, 2026

The list now includes: Oracle, OpenAI, Google, SpaceX/xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Reflection AI.

Shares of Oracle are up 6.5% and are at new highs on the DoW announcement.

List Revealed 

The Department of War has finalized agreements with OpenAI, Google, SpaceX/xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Reflection AI to deploy AI tools in "classified settings." This means these tools will operate within secure government networks where sensitive or secret national security information is handled, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Anthropic's Claude had previously been one of the few AI tools available on Palantir's Maven platform. However, after the DoW labeled Anthropic a supply chain risk, the department pushed to broaden access to AI tools for top-secret work.

The deal with the seven AI companies to unleash these models for secret national-security work, such as intelligence reports, satellite imagery, drone feeds, signals data, battlefield updates, logistics data, or classified planning documents, merely reflects that Silicon Valley is coming around in supporting the DoD after years of rejecting work with the department.

Emil Michael, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering, told the outlet, "We are equipping the warfighter with a suite of AI tools to maintain an unfair advantage and achieve absolute decision superiority."

A Reflection spokeswoman told the outlet, "This shared understanding with the Pentagon is a first step in supporting U.S. national security, and sets a precedent for how AI labs could work across the U.S. government, from supporting our servicemembers to our scientists."

The first indication that at least one Big Tech company had reached a deal with the DoW came on Thursday afternoon, when NBC News reported that Google had agreed to deploy its powerful Gemini AI systems on classified networks.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has made AI a top priority for the armed forces, vowing to transform the military into "an AI-first warfighting force."

"We are proud to be part of a broad consortium of leading AI labs and technology and cloud companies providing AI services and infrastructure in support of national security," Google spokesperson Kate Dreyer said in an email to NBC News.

Hegseth on Thursday defended the DoW's use of AI tools in classified military operations, telling Congress that "humans make decisions" and that "AI is not making lethal decisions."

Hegseth called Anthropic's CEO an "ideological lunatic," which only shows the rift between the left-leaning AI startup and the military is widening. 

*HEGSETH SAYS ANTHROPIC IS RUN BY `AN IDEOLOGICAL LUNATIC'

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 30, 2026

According to Tech Crunch, Anthropic is in the process of closing another fundraising round, asking investors to submit applications over the next two days as the startup seeks $50 billion at a $900 billion valuation. The previous valuation of $380 billion was in February. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 11:28

US Mortgage Debt Hits $13.2 Trillion, Average Household Owes Nearly $109,000

Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times,

America’s mortgage debt continues to escalate, hitting the $13.2 trillion mark, according to an April 30 WalletHub report.

The personal finance website and app indicated that the average U.S. household owes nearly $109,000 in outstanding mortgage balances and that mortgage debt has remained on an upward trend over the past few years.

“Mortgage rates are the highest they’ve been in around a decade, and home prices have seen a meteoric rise in recent years as well,” WalletHub analyst John Kiernan said in the report.

“Even small increases in home prices can lead to thousands of dollars in extra mortgage interest costs for homeowners, so it’s important to choose wisely when deciding where and when to buy a house.”

Comparing the 50 states based on proprietary data from the third quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter, WalletHub found that the northernmost state, Alaska, added the most mortgage debt during that time frame, in percentage terms. The average balance there rose by 2.52 percent to $248,013.

Meanwhile, Alaska residents still carry significant mortgage balances in general, with average monthly payments of $2,078. Homeowners in Alaska are also saddled with relatively high property taxes. According to Redfin, the current median list price in Alaska is $465,000.

Delaware ranked second for the most added mortgage debt during the same period, showing a 2.51 percent increase to $210,542 for the average balance. A typical homeowner in Delaware spends nearly $1,689 per month in mortgage costs. Redfin lists the median home price in the state at $460,000.

The third-highest state for added mortgage debt goes to Maine, with average balances rising by 1.98 percent to an outstanding balance of $209,936. Average homeowners there pay about $1,723 each month toward their mortgage. Maine’s median home price stands at $390,300, as per Redfin.

Nevada and California complete the top five states with the highest mortgage debt increases. South Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Texas round out the top 10.

On the opposite side, the report indicates that  mortgage debt decreased in 19 states during the fourth quarter of 2025. Vermont ranked the lowest in the nation for mortgage debt, followed by North Dakota, West Virginia, New Mexico, and Kansas.

Earlier this year, WalletHub reported America’s total household debt, including mortgage payments, car loans, credit card debt, and other expenses, at $18.78 trillion, with an average debt per household at $155,594.

Kiernan noted that since mortgage rates have recently become a bit more favorable, those currently paying higher rates could consider refinancing as a way of lowering monthly costs. As of April 23, Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.23 percent.

Other money-saving tips include making extra mortgage payments when possible to reduce total interest costs or switching to biweekly payments.

“This results in 26 half-payments per year instead of the usual 12,” Kiernan noted. “Over time, this can shave years off your mortgage term and save you money on interest.”

Finally, homeowners could consider putting unexpected windfalls such as tax refunds or work bonuses toward the mortgage payment, shortening the overall repayment period.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 11:20

Memory Stick Prices Refuse To Come Back To Earth

Apple CEO Tim Cook's warning during Thursday evening's earnings call about the deepening global memory shortage sent us back to review memory stick prices.

Let's review what Cook said…

"We believe memory costs will drive an increasing impact on our business," Cook told analysts, while also warning about "supply constraints." He added, "We'll continue to evaluate this."

It wasn't just Cook warning about memory prices this week. Meta and Microsoft also noted in their earnings results that higher prices contributed to their elevated capital expenditures.

Memory makers Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix have all been racing to add new capacity as AI data centers absorb an ever-larger share of memory sticks, which are typically used in PCs and smartphones.

Comments from Cook and other Big Tech firms this week about the dire situation prompted us to check the latest prices amid the memory crunch.

Goldman analyst Kenta Kinuhata provided the most recent cost breakdown of memory prices.

Biggest changes:

• DRAM: 2026 price increase estimate jumped from about 150% to 250% to 280%. Supply tightness now extends into late 2026 and early 2027.

• NAND: 2026 price increase estimate jumped from about 100% to 200% to 250%. Like DRAM, supply is now expected to stay tighter for longer.

Pricing

Amazon price-tracking website CamelCamelCamel shows that pricing for the "G.SKILL Trident Z5 RGB Series DDR5 RAM" was around $869 at the end of April. This is up from $149 in early September.

The big question is when does all this new memory capacity finally hit the market and relieve the supply crunch enough to make building trading desktops affordable again?

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 11:00

Three Fed Officials Explain Why They Dissented, Blasting Fed's "Easing Bias"

This morning, three Fed officials said they dissented over this week’s policy statement because it was no longer appropriate to signal the Fed’s next move was still likely to be an interest-rate cut.

“I believe the FOMC should offer a policy outlook that signals that the next rate change could be either a cut or a hike, depending on how the economy evolves,” Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said in an essay released on Friday morning. “This could tighten financial conditions somewhat today, pushing back against a high-inflation scenario that could require an even stronger monetary policy response in the future.”

This week’s move marked the fifth dissent for Kashkari, formerly a vocal dove, who is currently one of the longest serving reserve bank president among the 12 regional leaders. His last vote against the majority of the committee was in 2020, when he opposed statement language that he saw as leaning too much toward rate hikes. In 2017, he dissented against each of the three interest rate increases that year.

In his essay, Kashkari laid out two scenarios in which the Middle East conflict could play out. If the Straight of Hormuz were to reopen fairly quickly, underlying inflation would likely be around 3% for a third straight year, pressuring consumers and perhaps the labor market as well. That would likely require the Fed to stay on hold for an extended period before lowering rates gradually, he said. If the conflict were to drag on, though, it would drive up both inflation and unemployment in the US. Given that inflation has been above the Fed’s target for five years, that could unmoor long-term inflation expectations and lead the Fed to raise interest rates in a bid to reverse that, he said. “Rate increases, potentially a series of them, could be warranted, even at the risk of further weakness to the labor market,” Kashkari said of that scenario.

Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack also released a statement in which she said the economy has been resilient so far this year and rising oil prices add to broad-based inflationary pressures.

“Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased in 2026 and makes the future path for monetary policy more uncertain, as well,” she said adding that "inflation pressures continue to be broad based, and rising oil prices present an additional source of inflationary pressure. Uncertainty around the economic outlook is elevated, with upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth and employment."

As a result she sees "did not believe it was appropriate to include an easing bias around the future path for monetary policy. The current FOMC statement references language around “additional adjustments.” This forward guidance was put into the statement to signal a pause rather than an end to the easing cycle. I see this clear easing bias as no longer appropriate given the outlook."

Hammack, who has been vocal about inflationary risks, dissented in December 2024 to oppose a quarter-point rate reduction.

Completing the trio of dissenters, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, former head of the NY Fed's markets team (also known as the PPT) said in her statement she’s increasingly concerned over how long it will take to return inflation to the Fed’s 2% target. She also said the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy guidance should reflect that the risks of the next move being a rate cut or a hike are evenly balanced. 

“The conflict in the Middle East raises the prospect of prolonged or repeated supply disruptions that could create further inflationary pressures,” Logan said in a statement released Friday. “It could plausibly be appropriate for the FOMC’s next rate change to be either an increase or a cut.”

It was the first dissent for Logan, who became the Dallas Fed president in 2022. Like Kashkari, she also pointed to the role of the Fed’s forward guidance in financial conditions and the economy, noting that the guidance itself is an important policy tool.

On Wednesday, Hammack, Kashkari and Logan - who have in the past expressed reservations about White House policy - supported the decision to hold interest rates steady, but opposed language in the statement that signaled the Fed was leaning toward resuming interest rate cuts.

The disagreement centered around a phrase in the statement referring to “the extent and timing of additional adjustments” to rates. Officials have kept their benchmark rate unchanged this year at a target range of 3.5% to 3.75% after three quarter-point rate reductions at the end of 2025. The language, which was left unchanged Wednesday, suggests the central bank's "bias" is to eventually resume cutting rates.

As Bloomberg notes, since January a growing number of officials have been urging their colleagues to tweak the statement to make it clear the Fed’s next policy move could possibly be a rate hike. Elevated fuel costs spurred higher by the war with Iran have raised worries that price pressures could spread and worsen already elevated inflation. 

Wednesday's FOMC 8-4 vote marked the first time since 1992 that four officials dissented against a Federal Open Market Committee action. Fed Governor Stephen Miran dissented in the opposite direction, preferring to lower rates by a quarter point. 

Kashkari, Logan and Hammack have all said since March that the conflict in the Middle East has added uncertainty to the economic outlook.   

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 10:40

Manufacturing ISM Misses As Prices Surge Most Since April 2022, Employment Slides To Worst Print Of 2026

Amid the fog of war and fading 'hard' data, the final April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI printed 54.5, a small gain from the flash 54.0 print, and higher than the 52.3 February final print, although it came with a warning from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

“The surge in manufacturing activity in April is not the cause for cheer that at first glance it suggests. A key driving force behind the upturn is the need for companies to get ahead of further feared price rises and supply shortages, providing a short-term boost that could fade in the coming months as headwinds to the economy continue to build... employment has fallen as firms grow increasingly worried over the need to reduce cost overheads amid an environment of rising raw material prices, while selling prices have jumped higher as producers seek to protect their margins.

There was some good news: “More encouragingly, business expectations for output in the year ahead have improved, partly reflecting hopes that the US will be less affected by the war than previously feared, and less than other economies, as well as reduced concerns over the impact of tariffs given the recent Supreme Court ruling. However, some of these improved expectations of future production gains reflected a reaction to better than anticipated order book inflows in April, which may prove to be a chimera as the stock building boost fades.”

Shortly after, the ISM Manufacturing PMI published its April number which remained unchanged at 52.7, matching the highest since August 2022, and missing estimates of an increase to 53.2

However, a look under the hood reveals that like last month, there was continued deterioration in the core components: Under the hood, Prices Paid continued to rise dramatically while New Orders and Employment dipped again - another indication that stagflation remains the biggest risk for the economy.

• New Orders 54.1, missing expectations of 54.5
• Prices Paid 84.6, higher than expectations of 80.3
• Employment 46.4, missing expectations of48.8

As shown below, the New Orders Index expanded for the fourth straight month after four straight readings in contraction, registering 54.1 percent, up 0.6 percentage point compared to March’s figure of 53.5 percent. The April reading of the Production Index (53.4 percent) is 1.7 percentage points lower than March’s reading of 55.1 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 84.6 percent, a 6.3-percentage point jump from March’s reading of 78.3 percent. In the last three months, the Prices Index has increased 25.6 percentage points to reach its highest level since April 2022 (84.6 percent). The Backlog of Orders Index registered 51.4 percent, down 3 percentage points compared to the 54.4 percent recorded in March. The Employment Index registered 46.4 percent, down 2.3 percentage points from March’s figure of 48.7 percent.

Some more details:

“In April, U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory, growing at the same pace as the month before. Of the five subindexes that make up the PMI®, the New Orders and Supplier Deliveries indexes indicated faster growth compared to the previous month, the Production Index grew at a slower rate, and the Employment and Inventories indexes remained in contraction.

“Two of four demand indicators (the New Orders and Backlog of Orders indexes) remain in expansion, although the Backlog of Orders Index dropped 3 percentage points compared to March. The New Export Orders Index remained in contraction with a 2-percentage point decrease, and the Customers’ Inventories Index remains in ‘too low’ territory, contracting at a slightly faster rate. A ‘too low’ status for the Customers’ Inventories Index is usually considered positive for future production.

“Regarding output, the Production Index is in expansion for the sixth month in a row (although it lost ground compared to March), and the Employment Index decreased by 2.3 percentage points and remains in contraction. Among panelists, 60 percent indicated that managing head counts remains the norm at their companies as opposed to hiring, and of those managing head counts, 34 percent are using layoffs and 43 percent using attrition or not backfilling positions.

“Finally, inputs (defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices, and imports) had another month of mixed results. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated increasingly slowing deliveries, the Inventories Index contracted at a slower rate, and the Prices Index vaulted again — up another 6.3 percentage points to 84.6 percent, from 78.3 percent in March, and the highest reading from April 2022, when it was also at 84.6 percent. The Imports Index lost 2.3 percentage points for a reading of 50.3 percent, compared to 52.6 percent in March.

“Looking at the manufacturing economy, 19 percent of the sector’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in April, compared to 16 percent in March, and the percentage of manufacturing GDP in strong contraction (defined as a composite PMI® of 45 percent or lower) decreased to 2 percent, compared to 4 percent in March. The share of sector GDP with a PMI® at or below 45 percent is a good metric to gauge overall manufacturing weakness. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, four (Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products) expanded in April,” says Spence.

According to the report, “In April, U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory, growing at the same pace as the month before. Of the five subindexes that make up the PMI, the New Orders and Supplier Deliveries indexes indicated faster growth compared to the previous month, the Production Index grew at a slower rate, and the Employment and Inventories indexes remained in contraction."

Yet for all the rhetoric, what matters is that  prices continued to rise, surging to 84.6, the highest since April 2022 and approaching their 2021 record high, while employment shrank further into contraction, down to 46.4, the lowest print of 2026.

Furthermore, as expected the Iran war remains: “In this second month of the Iran War (at the time of data collection), 31 percent of the comments were positive and 69 percent negative, with a positive to negative sentiment ratio of 1 to 2.2. Among comments, the war was mentioned in 47 percent and tariffs in 18 percent. As was the case last month, some panelists referenced both topics within a single comment or in mixed sentiment."

Obviously, if the war persists and price pressures and supply delays accelerate, demand, employment and production capabilities will inevitably start to be even more adversely affected until the broader economy finally cracks. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 10:22

Final Warnings

By Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy at Rabobank

Some headlines write themselves. Tokyo has already delivered one – and likely acted on it. Tehran may be waiting for its turn. The bond market, meanwhile, could have issued another warning to the Fed. As for the long-held consensus that 2026 would bring smooth disinflation, gentle policy easing, and AI-driven multiple expansion, that narrative has been under strain for some time. Yesterday’s European inflation – and to a lesser extent growth – data did little to support it. Both US and Eurozone Q1 GDP undershot expectations even as inflation pressures persist. To be sure, central banks held their fire, but no one can say they haven’t been warned.

Start with the yen, because that's where yesterday's most audible bang came from. After Finance Minister Katayama and top FX diplomat Mimura took turns at the microphone delivering what Mimura himself called Japan's "final evacuation warning" to markets, USD/JPY collapsed from above 160 to under 156 – the largest one-day move in the dollar against the yen since December 2022.

The MOF, predictably, won't confirm. But when a currency moves three big figures in a few hours with no other catalyst, traders who've sat through previous interventions tend to recognize the fingerprints. While writing this Daily, the USD/JPY pair is coming down sharply again.

Atsushi Mimura

The bigger issue, however, is whether intervention can do more than briefly stabilize markets. Japan faces structural pressures: it is a major energy importer amid elevated oil prices, and its central bank is cautiously pursuing policy normalisation after years of ultra-loose settings. Recent spikes in government bond yields – touching multi-decade highs – highlight the risks. Authorities can resist market forces for a time, but they cannot fundamentally change them.

Speaking of which: oil. Brent traded above $125 yesterday in early European trading on yet more reporting that Washington is preparing for an extended blockade of Iran's ports and may be considering renewed military action, before being abruptly knocked lower in heavy volume – possibly, some sources suggested, by official Japanese selling alongside the yen operation. So have we arrived at the point where finance ministries are actively managing crude on the side?

What is more interesting is that they smashed oil (-$6 in seconds) first https://t.co/PHpElFAZAb pic.twitter.com/Ax00iGlLXl

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 1, 2026

In any case, oil appears to be holding on to its decline despite rising geopolitical tensions. The UAE has urged its citizens in Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq to leave “immediately,” citing deteriorating regional conditions. At the same time, sources suggest the US is completing final pre-strike preparations, including intelligence gathering on Iranian oil infrastructure. In response, Iran is reportedly planning a “dual response”: missile strikes on Gulf energy assets and US-linked bases, alongside a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz using mines and missiles. Senior US military officials have briefed President Trump on updated options for possible action against Iran. In short, multiple warnings have been issued, and the situation remains highly fluid – meaning the landscape could shift markedly over the coming days. Warnings are out.

In the Eurozone, April’s flash HICP rose to 3.0% y/y – the highest since September 2023 – driven largely by a 10.9% surge in energy prices, with inflation accelerating across Germany, France, Spain, and Italy. While the headline print was slightly below our forecast, this mainly reflected easing in core inflation, particularly services, which slowed from 3.2% to 3.0% y/y. This distinction is important. The headline signals renewed pressure, but core dynamics suggest inflation has not yet broadened into a wage‑price spiral that would warrant aggressive monetary tightening beyond limited “warning shots.” We expect Eurozone inflation to average around 3.1% in 2026, easing to 2.5% in 2027. While still above pre-war expectations – by roughly 1.7 percentage points cumulatively – this profile does not justify tightening policy into a slowing growth backdrop.

Indeed, Eurozone GDP data sharpened the inflation–growth trade-off. Q1 growth came in at just 0.1% q/q, below the 0.2%–0.3% consensus. France stagnated, Italy slowed, Germany surprised modestly to the upside at 0.3%, and Spain remained the standout at 0.6%. Importantly, most of the quarter predates the peak of the Iran-related energy shock, meaning the weakness reflects an economy already losing momentum rather than the direct impact of recent geopolitical developments (see our more in-depth take here). This suggests Q2 is likely to be similarly weak – or weaker in underlying terms – and implies that the ECB’s prior growth projections were already too optimistic before the latest shock. Our forecasts see Eurozone growth slowing from 1.5% in 2025 to 0.6% this year, followed by a modest recovery to 0.9% in 2027.

Against this backdrop, the ECB left rates unchanged at 2%, as widely expected. The decision itself was uneventful; the message was not. The Governing Council acknowledged that “upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have intensified,” with President Lagarde describing the outcome as “an informed decision on the basis of yet-insufficient information.” That phrasing suggests the decision was finely balanced, with some policymakers inclined to move – a message that also came through via ‘sources’ shortly after the press conference had ended.

Our ECB watcher Bas van Geffen characterises this as a “June or never” moment – and the uncertainty embedded in that phrase is key. Hawks still have a window to push for tightening, but it is narrowing. Earlier in the month, markets had priced in multiple hikes, driven by inflation concerns, yet that urgency has since faded. Financial conditions have remained orderly: spreads are contained, equities resilient, and no disorderly market reaction has emerged to compel ECB action. In that environment, the burden of proof shifts to those advocating a hike. 

Our base case remains a 25bp increase in June, taking the deposit rate to 2.25%. June offers fresh staff projections and another month of data, making it the natural decision point. However, if the ECB does not act then, the case for tightening weakens materially. By July, energy pass-through should be near its peak, and evidence of second-round effects – if present – should be clearer. Absent such evidence, the argument for higher rates loses traction. A key condition for a June pause, however, would be a meaningful easing in energy prices, implying improvement in Middle East tensions – something not evident at present. The ECB, for its part, cannot be accused of failing to signal these risks.

Across the Channel, the Bank of England struck an “Alert but careful” tone, also holding rates steady. Governor Bailey described the stance as an “active hold,” balancing persistent inflation risks against growing concerns over employment and activity. While the BoE reiterated that it stands “ready to act as necessary,” both the minutes and Bailey’s remarks suggested reluctance to move prematurely. An overload of scenarios and caveats provided limited forward guidance. That said, we expect more Monetary Policy Committee members to lean toward tightening in June. Ultimately, how far that shift goes will depend heavily on developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the extent to which higher energy costs feed through into broader inflation.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 10:10

Medicaid Withholds Additional $91 Million In Funding For Minnesota

Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,

In his latest action targeting Minnesota fraud, Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, said his agency would delay paying $91 million in Medicaid claims to the state.

“This is about protecting patients and respecting taxpayers,” Oz said in a video posted April 30 on X, announcing the decision.

The money being withheld includes “$76 million tied to 14 service categories highly vulnerable to fraud,” Oz wrote on X. The remaining deferred payments—$14 million—could potentially have been directed “towards illegal immigrants who weren’t supposed to be getting this coverage,” he stated in the video.

The most recent amounts are on top of an initial $259 million the agency halted in February amid the North Star State’s ongoing fraud scandals.

Minnesota sued Oz’s agency and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services over that decision, but earlier this month a federal court refused to unfreeze the funds as the litigation continues.

Oz said he notified Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and other state officials before going public with his most recent decision. The Epoch Times sought comment from Walz but received no reply prior to publication.

Minnesota’s fraud scandals drew widespread attention in late 2025. Since then, President Donald Trump has ratcheted up fraud investigations across the nation. Trump appointed Vice President JD Vance to head an anti-fraud task force and the Justice Department formed a National Fraud Enforcement Division.

Oz’s new Minnesota funding freeze comes two days after agents raided 22 Minnesota sites in connection with fraud investigations.

The state’s issues with the defrauding of its public programs follow “a pattern we can’t ignore,” Oz said.

“Minnesota’s Medicaid program has shown serious vulnerabilities to fraud,” Oz wrote. “These are not isolated breakdowns—they point to systemic issues that must be addressed.”

The federal government funds roughly half of Medicaid, he wrote, which gives his agency “the authority and the responsibility to ensure those dollars are spent legally and appropriately.”

Medicaid will refuse to pay “bad bills,” he said, adding that Minnesota is therefore being asked to provide more documentation to justify payment of the requested funds. “When something doesn’t look right, we investigate; it’s our job.”

Oz said his agency is providing “as much support as we can” to help Walz “turn this around.”

Earlier this year, following months of nationwide attention on Minnesota’s fraud-plagued programs, Walz asked state lawmakers to enact what he called “a comprehensive anti-fraud package.”

In an April 17 newsletter, Minnesota Rep. Kristin Robbins, who chairs the state’s anti-fraud legislative committee, said she remains concerned that officials with two key state agencies have continued to testify that “they don’t think anyone who fails to do their job will be fired.”

“Instead, they talked about how they will provide additional training and support,” Robbins said.

Robbins is running as a Republican gubernatorial candidate to replace Walz, who withdrew his reelection bid amid the scandals. She wrote that she supports a few of Walz’s fraud-prevention ideas, including upgrading computer systems that are used to verify eligibility for government benefits. She also agrees with Walz that the time limits for prosecuting fraud crimes should be extended beyond the current six years. Walz proposed a one-year extension, Robbins said, but she proposed a bill calling for an additional four years so that prosecutors could move forward with charges a decade after the alleged offenses.

“The most important element in preventing fraud is creating a no fraud, no excuses culture,” Robbins wrote.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 09:30

Roblox Shares Crash As Engagement Headwinds Blindside Wall Street

Online gaming platform Roblox crashed the most in four years in premarket trading to the tune of 24%, after the company reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter user metrics and slashed its full-year bookings outlook.

One of the major problems plaguing Roblox has been that new child-safety features, including age-verification requirements and limits on platform communication, have slowed user growth.

Daily active users came in at 132 million, missing the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of 143.8 million, while hours engaged also missed estimates.

Here's a snapshot of first-quarter results (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Daily active users 132 million, estimate 143.8 million (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Bookings $1.7 billion, estimate $1.73 billion

• Hours engaged 31 billion, estimate 33.68 billion

• Revenue $1.4 billion, estimate $1.42 billion

• Loss per share 35c vs. loss/shr 32c y/y, estimate loss/shr 40c * Free cash flow $596 million, estimate $564.5 million

Despite the user and bookings misses, free cash flow exceeded Bloomberg Consensus estimates, coming in at $596 million versus expectations of $564.5 million.

Second-quarter forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Sees bookings $1.55 billion to $1.61 billion, estimate $1.88 billion

• Sees revenue $1.39 billion to $1.45 billion, estimate $1.45 billion

• Sees consolidated net loss $242 million to $257 million, estimate loss $253 million

And full-year forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Sees bookings $7.33 billion to $7.60 billion, saw $8.28 billion to $8.55 billion, estimate $8.38 billion

• Sees revenue $5.87 billion to $6.14 billion, saw $6.02 billion to $6.29 billion, estimate $6.6 billion

• Sees consolidated net loss $1.04 billion to $1.18 billion, saw loss $1.14 billion to loss $1.30 billion, estimate loss $1.15 billion

Goldman analyst Eric Sheridan offered clients his first take on the earnings:

In its Q1 '26 earnings report, Roblox (RBLX) management framed a few key themes: 1) the rollout of age verification resulted in larger than expected engagement headwinds during the quarter – with management framing decreased communication (in-game chat) within experiences as having a likely impact on App Store ratings (and driving headwinds to organic user acquisition); 2) on the back of engagement headwinds, paired with the exit from Russia, Q1 DAUs underperformed relative to GS/Street expectations – and is now expected to continue to decline on a sequential basis during Q2'26; 3) positive commentary surrounding US O18 DAUs – with the cohort growing 40%+ YoY (vs. overall UCAN DAU growth of 17% YoY during Q1); & 4) an emphasis on scaling out novel experiences – with mgmt. supporting the rollout of novel game creation through an increase in targeted DevEx rates, & the announcement of several creator programs (incl. Roblox Jumpstart & Incubator).

In total, Roblox management initiated and implemented a series of long-term structural changes (which should be positive for long-term platform health and growth), including a lowered 2026 guidance for bookings & Adj. EBITDA, but by doing so, the company must now rebuild investor confidence in the building blocks toward its long-term goals of scaling to 10%+ market share in the US/global gaming content market while also navigating increased regulatory scrutiny on user safety.

Over the coming quarters, we believe that further visibility into user growth (acquisition & retention), and engagement heading into 2H will likely be needed for investors to gain confidence around the long-term growth algorithm of RBLX. To be more pointed, this is unlikely to be a one quarter recovery story – we think additional visibility into the navigation past tougher comps in 2H 2026 and the trajectory of 2027+ operating margins will be critical for forward operating estimates and a truer measure of valuation multiples aligned with growth outcomes. That said, at current share price levels, the valuation skew on the shares leaves us constructive on the stock.

While this reset in expectations is difficult, we view Roblox mgmt as reiterating its long-term goals surrounding: 1) compounded forward bookings growth of 20%+; 2) the potential for increased user monetization on the back of a number of initiatives (optimized and dynamic pricing in emerging markets, scaling of Novel games, etc.); & 3) a scaling Adj. EBITDA margin in 2027+ on the back of fixed cost leverage – even when including DevEx increases.

We reiterate our Buy rating on the shares and update our forward operating estimate for this set of earnings results & mgmt commentary and adjust our 12-month price target from $125 to $65.

Q1'26 Positives & Negatives:

Positives: a) Positive commentary surrounding the O18 user opportunity with the US cohort growing 40%+, with mgmt also highlighting that the cohort monetizes at a 50%+ higher rate than U18 US DAUs; b) continued expansion of offerings to native advertisers & adoption by creators, with more than 60 out of the top 100 creators using RBLX’s native ads manager – and mgmt. reiterating confidence surrounding the long-term growth potential of the business initiative; & c) mgmt reiterated their commitment toward driving an expansion in Novel game offerings – with the announcement of targeted DevEx rate increases (beginning on June 8th) & the launch of several programs to support creators (incl. Roblox Jumpstart & Incubator).

Negatives: a) Q2 & 2026 bookings/Adj. EBITDA guidance came in well below GS/Street (and prior FY26 guidance) estimates, as the company reflects ongoing headwinds from safety initiatives, continued investments into long-term strategic priorities, paired with lower fixed cost leverage (due to lower bookings growth assumptions); b) Q1 DAUs were below GSe/Street expectations due to greater-than-expected headwinds from the rollout of age-checks and the platform ban in Russia – with mgmt. also expecting DAUs to continue to decline on a sequential basis during Q2; c) on the back of age verification checks (which were a headwind to communication on the platform during Q1), RBLX App Store ratings declined, resulting in a reduction to organic signups that have traditionally been derived from the app store; & d) mgmt noted that additional algorithm & home page layout experimentation (which are expected to continue in Q2) could result in near-term headwinds to bookings & engagement.

Additional institutional commentary (courtsey of Bloomberg):

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Nathan Naidu

• "Roblox's push to have users complete age verification or face limits on platform communication is expected to extend a near-term slowdown in engagement and bookings but should support longer-term growth by addressing child-safety scrutiny and heavy sales concentration in a few major games"

Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Cost (overweight, PT $62)

• Roblox's age verification system is creating headwinds

• "That said, this system is fully within RBLX's control and fixes are on the way, as strength beneath the surface could create greater room for revisions ahead."

Jefferies analyst James Heaney (hold, PT $46 from $60)

• Against what were already low expectations, Roblox's updated FY26 bookings forecast "will continue fueling the bear case for the stock."

• "Primary issues were unexpectedly negative impacts from age check rollout and discovery algo changes, both of which could be multi-quarter headwinds."

Market reaction to the dismal earnings report sent Roblox shares crashing in premarket trading, down 24%, and if losses persist through the cash session, this would be the largest intraday decline since the 26% plunge on February 16, 2022.

Boom/bust...

The broader takeaway is that parents may be becoming more aware of the risks of their children spending hours in online gaming ecosystems, particularly on platforms with social chat features and monetized engagement loops. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 09:10

Futures Rise, Oil Slides On Iran Ceasefire Optimism After Best Month For Stocks Since 2020

US equity futures are higher, set for a new all time high, as the rally that’s pushed Wall Street to record highs on strong megacap tech earnings continues, after the S&P posted its best monthly increase since November 2020. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.3% (spiking moments ago on a report that Iran submitted its latest response to US amendments on the ceasefire agreement), while Nasdaq futures are modestly in the red and the Russell underperforms. Pre-market, AAPL is up 3% on healthy guidance and earnings beat even as it warned that memory-chip costs will increase and that shortages of Mac computers will persist for “several months.” NVDA and MSFT are 40bp higher, while AMZN is down 60bp. Headlines since yesterday’s close have been largely quiet, especially given the market holidays across most European and Asian markets. Bond yields dropped 1-2bp, and oil slipped after news that Iran had delivered its response to the latest US ceasefire amendment via Pakistani sources; the news pushed Brent down by about $1 to $110 and WTI dropped to session lows around $103; precious metals and aluminum are lower. The dollar was little changed having wrapped up its worst month since June, after a second intervention to by the BOJ/MOF in Japan pushed the yen sharply higher (although it has again given up most of its gains). Gold traded around $4,600 an ounce. Today's economic data calendar slate includes April manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and ISM manufacturing (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Miran at 8am

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Apple is up 3.8% after giving a surprisingly strong revenue forecast for the third quarter, even as it warned that memory-chip costs will increase and that shortages of Mac computers will persist for “several months” (Nvidia +0.4%, Microsoft +0.4%, Meta +0.3%, Tesla -0.2%, Alphabet -0.2%, Amazon -0.7%). 

• Amgen (AMGN) is down 1.6% after the drugmaker reported underwhelming sales of some of its newer products for the first quarter, with Baird calling the results a “mixed bag.”
• Cohu (COHU) falls 1.1% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported adjusted earnings per share that missed the average analyst estimate. However, analysts remain positive on its long-term growth prospects.
• Moderna Inc. (MRNA) jumps 6.7% after first-quarter sales beat expectations, as the struggling vaccine maker that’s faced resistance from the Trump administration has found new growth outside the US.
• Roblox (RBLX) tumbles 24% after the video-game company reported daily active users for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. The company also lowered its forecast for full-year bookings, a key measure of sales, after implementing safety features restricting how kids, who make up a majority of its audience, can use the platform.
• Sandisk (SNDK) is down 6.2% after the computer hardware and storage company reported third-quarter results that were much stronger than expected and gave an outlook that was well above the consensus. Despite the upside in the report and forecast, analysts said the report may not have been strong enough to meet high investor expectations.
• Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) is down 21% after the biotech firm said it plans to continue the study of its experimental cancer drug, following a review by an independent committee. Barclays analysts say the optics of the new guidance pressured shares.
• Sunbelt Rentals (SUNB) is down 2.6% after JPMorgan cut the recommendation on the equipment rental company to underweight from neutral, citing an “increase in industry-wide freight rates and fuel costs and the expected outperformance of Specialty (which is lower margin vs. General Tool).”
• Twilio Inc. (TWLO) jumps 18% after the software company reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. The company also raised its revenue growth forecast for the year.
• Veeva Systems (VEEV) rises 9.7% as the cloud-based software company is set to replace Coterra Energy in the S&P 500.
• Zeta Global (ZETA) is up 6.5% after the software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast. Analysts are especially positive on the company’s Athena AI operating system.

In other corporate news, Tesla generated more than half a billion dollars in revenue last year from selling products to two of Elon Musk’s other companies, the carmaker disclosed in an amended annual filing. Western Digital shares fell in extended trading despite reporting better than expected results across key metrics. Expectations were high, with shares up more than 60% in April. Novo Nordisk’s obesity shot Wegovy helped people with alcoholism reduce their drinking in a controlled study of patients who sought help with their addiction. 

Stocks are set to start the month of May in the green after closing a volatile April at record highs, with the S&P 500 logging its strongest monthly gain since 2020. Apple, the fifth Mag 7 megacap to report in two days, delivered a surprisingly strong revenue forecast for its third quarter, even as it warned that memory-chip costs will increase and that shortages of Mac computers will persist for “several months.”

Apple aside, it's all about AI: according to Bloomberg, S&P 500 margin expansion is being entirely driven by AI stocks, and without those companies, margins would have contracted.  And AI stocks are cheap relative to history alongside much stronger fundamentals, with AI stocks expected to deliver 33.7% EPS growth from 2Q to 4Q 2026 — roughly 2.5x that of non-AI peers, writes Bloomberg analyst Nathaniel T Welnhofer. 

Alphabet’s 10% gain on Thursday added $421 billion to its market value, the second-biggest one-day jump in market cap add for any stock ever. OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar, rebutting concerns about missing internal targets, said the company is meeting objectives and sees “a vertical wall of demand” for its products. Elsewhere in AI, debt investors are showing signs of fatigue after $300 billion of deals that have spanned every corner of the credit market, with bankers having to work harder to sell deals by offering more incentives and higher compensation. 

“The latest US earnings season has been robust, which has helped prevent global markets from suffering big losses despite the impact of the Iran conflict,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

Meanwhile, Goldman traders note that May is likely to see moderate tailwinds from corporate buybacks, while systematic strategies are more likely to become sellers of global stocks after a heavy re-leveraging.  S&P Dow Jones Indices has launched a consultation that could eventually speed up the entry of mega cap companies seeking to IPO into its indexes, including the S&P 500.

Fitch Ratings warned the US’s credit grade faces challenges due to a widening deficit that leaves its debt burden “far above” other nations that share its AA score. 

Oil held its second weekly gain as US President Donald Trump said he was sticking with a naval blockade of Iranian ports, elevating concerns the vital Strait of Hormuz would not reopen anytime soon. Brent for July rose above $111 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was above $105 — up 12% this week.

“Oil prices remaining above $110 per barrel though are a reminder of the stakes for the global economy and the fact that there looks no path to the Strait of Hormuz reopening in the near term,” AJ Bell’s Mould said.

Most European markets are closed for a public holiday; UK stocks dropped in thin holiday trading, led lower by NatWest on disappointing earnings and AstraZeneca on a regulatory setback. Meanwhile, water utilities fell after Citi downgraded United Utilities and Severn Trent on “limited absolute valuation upside.” Diageo rose on tariff relief hopes.  The FTSE 100 fell 0.5%, while Denmark’s OMX Copenhagen 25 Index was little changed, amid holidays for many other European markets. Here are the key stock movements this morning

• Diageo gained 1.6% after US President Donald Trump said he would be removing some Scotch tariffs following a visit from King Charles III.
• NatWest dropped as much as 4.2%, hitting a one-month low, as analysts looked past forecast-beating results to note that the UK lender’s adjusted profit had undershot expectations, while the improved income target had already been anticipated. Net interest income came in slightly below expectations.
• AstraZeneca slipped as much as 2.2% after the US Food and Drug Administration’s Oncology Drugs Advisory Committee voted against the drugmaker’s breast cancer medicine, known as camizestrant. Morgan Stanley noted the vote creates a “regulatory overhang and a dent to investor sentiment,” though the commercial impact is “relatively modest.”
• UK water utility stocks slide following a steep rally on Thursday as Citi downgrades United Utilities and Severn Trent due to “limited absolute valuation upside” on a 12-month view.

Asian stocks rose, poised to cap a fourth-straight weekly gain, buoyed by tech earnings as traders awaited more catalysts. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up about 0.3% Friday, with key gauges in Japan, Australia and New Zealand closing in the green. All of the region’s other key markets were closed for holidays. The regional benchmark was on track for a weekly advance of 0.7%. Japan’s tech-heavy Nikkei 225 tracked gains in US peers after results from major tech firms. Chip-equipment Tokyo Electron was among the biggest boosts to the regional gauge after a better-than-expected forecast. Next week’s highlights include rate decisions in Australia and Malaysia. Companies including HSBC, Toyota, Nintendo and Westpac will report results.

In FX, USD/JPY is little changed near 156.50 although that underplays another volatile session. The pair rose in Asia but fell abruptly during European morning hours, shedding ~150 pips in just a few minutes before recovering after a 2nd Japanese FX intervention. The swings are not as large as those observed on Thursday where Japan likely spent around $34.5 billion Thursday to prop up the yen, according to a Bloomberg analysis of central bank accounts.

In rates, treasuries are steady over Asia, early London session with yields trading marginally cheaper on the day, as oil is set to hold a second weekly gain after President Trump said he was sticking with Iran naval blockade. US yields dropped by 1-2bps across the curve following news that Iran delivered its latest response to US amendments on the agreement to end the war through Pakistani mediators. US 10-year yields trade around 4.36%. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Gilts fall, with declines more pronounced at the short-end. UK two-year yields rise 3 bps to 4.48%.  Twelve names priced $38.3 billion Thursday, paying about 4.5 basis points in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.7 times oversubscribed. Weekly volumes past $62 billion so far exceed dealer forecasts of near $50 billion. Friday is expected to be quiet.

In commodities, oil remains key driver for Treasuries price action. July Brent traded near $112 a barrel, heading for a weekly gain of more than 6%, while West Texas Intermediate was near $106 — up more than 12% for the period. Precious metals fall. Bitcoin rises 1%.

US economic data calendar slate includes April manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and ISM manufacturing (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Miran at 8am.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.1%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%
• FTSE 100 -0.7%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.38%
• VIX +0.2 points at 17.1
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1192.06
• euro little changed at $1.1738
• WTI crude +0.6% at $105.75/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Iran delivered its latest response to US amendments on the agreement to end the war through Pakistani mediators: Al Jazeera
• Weeks of conflict have aggravated Iran's dire economic problems, risking calamity after the war, but the Islamic Republic looks able to survive a standoff in the Gulf for now, despite a U.S. blockade that has cut off energy exports. With major fighting paused by an April 8 truce, Iran is locked in a stalemate with the U.S. and Israel, with talks for a lasting ceasefire stalled while Tehran keeps the Strait of Hormuz shut and Washington blockades Iranian Gulf ports. RTRS
• A U.S.-Iran ceasefire that began in early April has "terminated" hostilities between the two sides for the purposes of an approaching congressional war powers deadline, a senior official of President Donald Trump's ‌administration said on Thursday. RTRS
• The US credit rating is under pressure from a widening deficit, with debt “far above” other AA peers, Fitch warned. It expects further fiscal deterioration, driven by tax cuts. BBG
• Huawei is set to capture the largest share of China’s AI chip market this year, with sales jumping by at least 60 per cent amid strong demand from Chinese companies seeking domestic alternatives to Nvidia. FT
• OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar said the company sees a “vertical wall of demand,” after a WSJ report about missed internal goals weighed on AI-linked stocks earlier this week. She said growth may be constrained by limited computing capacity. BBG
• A growing camp of hard-liners believe Iran has to take the military initiative and start a shooting war again to send oil prices soaring higher and increase the pressure on Trump. They argue that the blockade goes beyond the sanctions Iran has faced down in the past and amounts to an act of war that must have a military response. WSJ
• S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC has launched a consultation that could speed up the entry of mega cap companies into its indexes, including the S&P 500. The proposed rule change would shorten the time a company needs to be public before being eligible to six months versus the current minimum of 12 months. If approved, the changes would apply to indexes including the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600, with any changes to be adopted prior to the market open on June 8.  BBG
• Chevron and Exxon beat estimates, offsetting supply and production losses from the Iran war. Shares of both firms rose premarket (CVX+1%, XOM +60 bps). BBG
• Anthropic is racing to close another fundraising round, asking investors to submit applications within the next 48 hours as the company looks to take in ~$50B at a valuation of ~$900B+ (Anthropic closed its last round in Feb at a ~$380B valuation). Tech Crunch
• US President Trump has signed the DHS funding bill.

Iran News

• US President Trump is expected to make a decision on the path forward [on Iran] in the coming days, NBC reported citing a US official.
• US President Trump said would not have approved enriched Uranium for Iran; needs guarantees Iran will not have a nuclear weapon ever. Hormuz blockade is 100% effective.
• A senior Trump administration official said that for War Power Resolution purposes, hostilities that began on February 28th have been terminated.
• Iranian Judiciary head said Iran does not accept negotiation based on imposition; adds Iran has never left the negotiating table, Iranian press reported.
• Iranian National Security Commission member Rezei said "we are currently in the second phase of the war with the enemy..the naval blockade is a continuation of the war.. we are not in a ceasefire situation now", Mehr reported. Full post:"Iran cannot be besieged; We have different ways to export and import In a conversation with Mehr, Ebrahim Rezaei said: "The enemy has turned to our naval blockade after failing in the military war and direct confrontation, and we are currently in the second phase of the war with the enemy." In other words, the naval blockade is a continuation of the war that the Americans have started against us. So, we are not in a ceasefire situation now. A member of the National Security Commission of the Majlis, stating that the Americans do not have the operational capacity to blockade Iran by sea, said: "Our only access route for transit is not through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.".
• US CENTCOM Commander Cooper briefed President Trump for 45 minutes on new operational plans for potential strikes against Iran, Axios' Ravid reported citing sources.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said that it is not responsible to expect a quick conclusion of the negotiations and that the other party has not used the opportunity provided by Iran's proposal, must be ready for any eventuality. The US and Israeli regime are famous for breaking their promises and the biggest guarantee for not repeating the war is the power of Iran.
• Drone attack hits Iranian Kurdish opposition camp east of Iraq's Erbil, according to Reuters, citing security sources. via vv.
• The defense sound heard over Tehran is related to countering micro-birds and reconnaissance drones, via Tasnim.
• Air defence sounds are being heard in some areas of Tehran but reasons are unclear, Mehr News reported.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded with decent gains, helped by the positivity seen stateside. The majority of markets are closed today for Labour Day. ASX 200 rebounded after 8 straight days of losses. Miners led gains while Energy underperformed following Thursday’s drop in oil prices. ANZ reported cash profit that beat estimates; however shares have slipped lower after it raised its coverage ratio by 4bps due to the heightened geopolitical risk. Nikkei 225 posted decent gains, despite the sudden JPY strength amid intervention talk. Tokyo Electron benefited following its positive Q4 results, in which net profit beat estimates.

Top Asian News

• Japan's Top Diplomat Mimura said will not comment on FX.

Eurozone cash and derivatives are closed today in observance of Labour Day. FTSE 100 (-0.6%) is lower this morning, dragged lower by the likes of NatWest (-4.2%), AstraZeneca (-2%) and pressure across the mining names. Delving into the UK bank in a bit more detail, the Co. reported strong headline metrics and lifted its income guidance for the year, whilst reaffirming other components. Despite the upbeat Q1, shares find themselves in the red; some will point towards the 1.4% decline in interest income. As for AstraZeneca, shares have dropped after the US FDA voted against the co’s breast cancer drug.

Top European News

• UK M4 Money Supply MoM (Mar) M/M 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.6%).
• UK Net Lending to Individuals MoM (Mar) M/M 8B vs. Exp. 5.9B (Prev. 6.8B).
• UK BoE Consumer Credit (Mar) 1.895B (Prev. 1.935B).
• UK Mortgage Approvals (Mar) 63.53K vs. Exp. 60K (Prev. 62.58K).
• UK Mortgage Lending (Mar) 6.15B (Prev. 4.84B).
• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Apr) 53.7 vs. Exp. 53.6 (Prev. 51.0).
• UK Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (Apr) Y/Y 3.0% (Prev. 2.2%).
• UK Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (Apr) M/M 0.4% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 0.9%).

Trade/Tariffs

• Japanese PM Takaichi said she will be visiting Vietnam and Australia. "Moreover, through these visits to both countries, taking into account the current situation in the Middle East, I will confirm cooperation on strengthening supply chain resilience, including stable energy supply and critical minerals within the Asian region. I believe such initiatives are also important for procuring critical supplies such as crude oil and petroleum products in Japan.".
• USTR Greer said he suggested a US-China Board of Trade in his meeting with Chinese VP He Lifeng.
• USTR Greer said the US will extend preferential treatment to other UK goods.

FX

• USD/JPY took another leg lower this morning, surpassing Thursday’s low of 155.55 to mark a session trough of 155.48.
• Thursday saw strong verbal intervention from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, then later comments from top FX official Mimura, which pushed the pair lower in excess of 2%. Later in the session on Thursday, Nikkei sources said a Japanese government official confirmed the intervention to Nikkei, but we are still awaiting official confirmation, with Mimura declining to comment on intervention speculation, and figures showing potential FX intervention due late May. Some desks noted the remarks/potential intervention on Thursday may have had a follow-through to the downside in Brent prices as Mimura's "looking at markets on all fronts" could have been viewed as having cross-asset implications. However, there was no move in the Brent Jul'26 contract this morning.
• Though it is impossible to say whether intervention occurred in this morning’s 150pip+ move, 7:45 am BST (3:45 pm JST) marks the low-liquidity period and the final hour of the Tokyo trading session, a European holiday, and also month-end. Factors which provide a relatively low liquidity environment, which boost the effectiveness of intervention.
• In terms of the move this morning, USD/JPY fell 156 pips from 157.05 to a low of 155.48, half of the move has now been pared as participants continue to price the still low real rates in Japan, and the potential for energy prices to remain high, which MUFG says will see USD/JPY rebound quickly.
• DXY was resilient to JPY moves, with the index falling briefly below the 98.00 mark, then paring most of the move. DXY will likely attempt to return to 100 and 200 DMAs either side of 98.50, which it has mostly respected throughout the week.
• BoJ data for April 30th shows FX intervention of some JPY 5.4tln.

Fixed Income

• Fixed benchmarks are flat amid mass market closures with liquidity thin and the docket sparse.
• USTs in a narrow 110-17+ to 110-22+ range, awaiting Final Manufacturing PMI and then the ISM Manufacturing figure thereafter. Today's docket also has Fed's Miran; reminder, as Powell has indicated he will remain at the Fed once he is no longer Chair, Miran will likely vacate his spot for Warsh.
• Gilts gapped lower by 15 ticks and then slipped to an 86.36 low, though comfortably above Thursday's 85.90 contract base. No move to the Final Manufacturing PMI, which unsurprisingly points to marked price pressures and frontloading of purchase activity.
• Ahead, BoE Chief Economist Pill is due; Pill was the sole hawkish dissenter in April, and sees the risk of second round effects as being to the upside vs the three scenarios, calling for a "prompt but modest hike" to "help mitigate upside risks to price stability".
• Japan sold JPY 250bln 10-year I/L JGBs: b/c 3.40x, Yield at the Lowest Accepted Price 0.578%.
• Australia sold AUD 1.0bln 4.50% 2033 bond: b/c 3.56x, average yield 4.8608%.

Commodities

• In geopolitics, the Trump administration is framing hostilities with Iran as “terminated” under the War Powers Resolution due to a ceasefire, allowing it to bypass the 60-day congressional approval requirement despite ongoing tensions and historically weak enforcement of the law. Trump’s stance remains inconsistent—he alternates between suggesting a deal with Iran may or may not be necessary while firmly maintaining that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons—and he has indicated that Iran’s military capabilities are significantly degraded, though the ceasefire’s durability is uncertain. Meanwhile, CENTCOM has already presented detailed strike options, with a decision on next steps expected within days. Diplomatically, talks are stalled: Iran signals slow progress, internal disagreements are emerging within its leadership over negotiation strategy, and external actors like Israel anticipate a collapse in talks, potentially triggering escalation, including possible strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Iran, for its part, is preparing for “any eventuality,” adopting a defiant posture, reinforcing defences, and continuing limited military responses.
• Crude prices remain elevated with WTI Jun between USD 104.13-106.65/bbl and Brent July towards the middle of a USD 110.33-112.45/bbl range at the time of writing. Price action this morning has been fairly muted amid broad market closures in APAC and Europe, due to the Labour Day holiday. Unlike Thursday, oil was unreactive this morning to JPY strength. (See FX for details)
• Spot gold and silver are softer as higher crude prices keep the precious metals space pressured, with little action seen from a slide in the DXY amid a sudden surge in the JPY around 0745BST. Spot gold resides within yesterday’s USD 4,539-4,647.05/oz.
• Base metals are mixed with 3M LME copper flat within a narrow USD 13,008.53-13,121.88/t range amid little impetus as Chinese markets were closed overnight and a large part of Europe is away.
• US President Trump's mineral reserve reportedly plans to purchase rare earths from China.
• White House said presidential permit authorizes bridger pipeline expansion to construct, connect, operate, and maintain pipeline facilities at boundary at Phillips County, Montana, between US and Canada. Permitee granted permission to transport between the United States and Canada crude oil and petroleum products.

US Event Calendar

• 9:45 am: United States Apr F S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 54, prior 54
• 10:00 am: United States Apr ISM Manufacturing, est. 53.2, prior 52.7
• 10:00 am: United States Apr ISM Prices Paid, est. 80.3, prior 78.3

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It should be quiet today, with many countries around the world on holiday, particularly in Europe. The UK is off on Monday so it should be a couple of days of low volume even as the war uncertainty drags on.

As it’s the start of the month, Henry will shortly release our regular performance review for April. It was another eventful month, as mounting fears about stagflation pushed many government bond yields to multi-year highs. However, equities had a much stronger time after their March slump, with the S&P 500 (+10.5% in total return terms) posting its best monthly performance since November 2020 when the vaccine news was released, ending the month at a new record high. And most notably, the Philly Semiconductor index (+38.4% total return) had its best month since February 2000, the month before the dot com bubble began to burst. For all the negativity around Europe of late, the Stoxx 600 (+5.6%) managed its best month since January 2025 while the MSCI EM index (+14.7%) had its best month since November 2022. Oil had a U-shaped performance, ending not far from where it started, but with Brent crude up over 25% from the mid-month lows. So a fascinating month. See the full review in your inboxes shortly.

Oil prices have continued to creep higher overnight, with no sign that the US and Iran are moving closer to a deal. Given the month-end, there’s been a contract roll, but if we stick with the July 2026 contract for consistency, Brent crude is up +1.07% this morning to $111.58/bbl. Moreover, Trump showed no sign of backing down, saying “Their economy is crashing, the blockade is incredible”, and “we’ll see how long they hold out.” Meanwhile, there’s been no sign of comprise from the Iranian side, with new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issuing a statement that Iran would maintain its missile and nuclear capabilities and suggesting that Iran would implement “new legal frameworks” over the Strait of Hormuz.

This morning in Asia, the yen has weakened -0.36%, after surging +2.44% against the US Dollar yesterday. There was no official word on whether an intervention had taken place, but Nikkei reported later in the day that the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan conducted a yen-buying operation. And Bloomberg also reported overnight that an intervention had taken place. Those moves accelerated after Japan’s currency chief Atsushi Mimura said he was giving a “final warning” before taking action on FX. So if there was intervention, that final warning didn't last very long. In turn, that pushed the yen to 156.59 per dollar by the close, strengthening from its level of 160.41 on Wednesday, when it hit its weakest closing level since July 2024.

Otherwise overnight, the risk-on tone has generally continued as May begins, although many indices are closed for a holiday. However, those that are open have generally risen, with the Nikkei (+0.60%) and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (+0.98%) both higher this morning, whilst futures on the S&P 500 (+0.23%) are pointing to further gains as well.

Markets also ended April on a stronger note yesterday, as a sharp intraday pullback for oil helped to ease fears about stagflation. In fact, Brent crude fell from an intraday high for this conflict of $126.41/bbl, all the way down to $114.01/bbl by the close. These moves may have been distorted by the impending end-of-month benchmark shift, but even for WTI we saw prices rise to a post-ceasefire high of $110.93/bbl intra-day before easing to $105.07/bbl by the close (-1.69% on the day). So relative to 24 hours ago, concerns about inflation have eased considerably, with markets pricing in a slightly more dovish path for central banks as well.

Those oil moves came as central banks sounded less hawkish in their decisions than many feared yesterday, which led to a decent sovereign bond rally on both sides of the Atlantic. For instance, the ECB held rates as expected, keeping their deposit rate at 2%. President Lagarde did give several hints towards a June hike, saying “directionally, I know where we are heading” and acknowledging that rate hikes had been discussed yesterday. But she also offered some dovish counterarguments and didn’t paint a June hike as a fully done deal. This led markets to dial back their expectations for imminent tightening, with the number of hikes priced by year-end falling -10.6bps to 73bps. Our European economists’ main takeaway is that the data and events now need to disprove the case for a hike in June, but they see this leading to a “measured” tightening cycle rather than a “forceful or persistent” one. 

That backdrop meant that European bond yields fell back from their recent highs. So 10yr bund yields (-7.3bps) fell to 3.03%, down from their post-2011 high on Wednesday, and yields on 10yr OATs (-8.4bps) and BTPs (-9.8bps) also fell back. Moreover, that was particularly clear at the front end, with 2yr yields seeing even sharper declines in Germany (-10.0bps), France (-9.3bps) and Italy (-11.7bps). Otherwise, European equities made a decent recovery too, with the STOXX 600 (+1.38%) recovering after four consecutive declines.

For the Bank of England, it was a similar story yesterday, as they also held rates at 3.75% as expected, but didn’t sound in a rush to hike rates. The decision was an 8-1 vote, with chief economist Huw Pill dissenting for a 25bp rate hike. But otherwise, Governor Bailey said that they weren’t “giving some slightly clandestine message that interest rates are going to go up”. So yields fell back after the decision, with the 2yr gilt yield (-10.5bps) coming down to 4.45%, whilst the 10yr gilt yield (-5.9bps) fell back to 5.01%. And as with the ECB, given markets had already priced material tightening for the rest of year, the reaction went in a more dovish direction, with the probability of a hike at the next meeting in June falling from 85% to 61%. So there was some contrast with the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday, which had been more hawkish than expected as three regional presidents dissented against the easing bias. Obviously the unfolding oil narrative of the day helped cement the moves as well.

This backdrop also meant equities put in a decent performance on both sides of the Atlantic. So the S&P 500 (+1.02%) rebounded after the last two days of losses, albeit with some weakness among tech stocks, with the Mag-7 (-0.41%) slipping as losses for Meta (-8.55%) and Microsoft (-3.93%) outweighed Alphabet’s (+9.96%) rally after their results the previous evening. After the close, we also had Apple’s results, whose shares rose around +2% after-hours after projecting stronger-than-expected sales growth for the current quarter (+14-17% vs +9% expected).

That equity recovery was supported by the latest batch of US data, which added to the theme of economic resiliency. For example, the weekly initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since 1969, coming in at just 189k in the week ending April 25 (vs. 212k expected). Separately, we also had the Q1 GDP print, which came in at an annualised rate of +2.0% (vs. +2.3% expected). But the so-called “core GDP” measure of real final sales to private domestic purchasers was slightly stronger at +2.5%.

Otherwise, we also had the PCE inflation data for March, which showed headline PCE at a monthly pace of +0.7%, with the year-on-year print moving up to +3.5%. The print was as expected, but significantly, it means that PCE inflation has now been above the Fed’s 2% target for five full years, which is something I looked at in my chart of the day yesterday (link here). Many thought we were in a permanent period of lower inflation back in the 2010s, but the last five years have seen US inflation consistently above target. As I show in the note, regimes have tended to last for long periods of time. Are we in the early stages of an above-target regime now? Or will we ultimately trend back to target in a reasonable period? My bias is for the former.

However yesterday was a day of relief and Treasury yields also fell back, with the 2yr yield (-7.8bps) falling to 3.87%, whilst the 10yr yield (-5.9bps) fell to 4.37%. In large part that was helped by easing concerns around inflation as oil prices fell back. But we also saw Fed pricing shift in a slightly dovish direction as well, with futures for the December meeting going from 3bps of hikes on Wednesday to 3bps of cuts by yesterday’s close.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the ISM manufacturing for April, along with UK mortgage approvals for March. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the BoE’s Pill. Finally, earnings releases include Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 08:41

US Pledges $100 Million To Repair Chornobyl Nuclear Plant

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of State intends to offer up to $100 million in foreign assistance toward a G7 initiative to repair the Chornobyl nuclear plant’s protective structure that was damaged in Russian strikes.

A visitor touring the former Chernobyl nuclear power plant takes a photo through a window looking toward facilities that house reactors 1 and 2 near Chernobyl, Ukraine, on Sept. 29, 2015. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

The plant, located in Ukraine, was the site of a major disaster in 1986 when Reactor No. 4 exploded, releasing radioactive material across Europe. This prompted one of the biggest emergency responses in history, including building protective structures around the plant. While the final reactor at Chornobyl was shut down in 2000, the site continues to remain highly sensitive.

“For three decades, the United States and G7 partners have led efforts to secure nuclear material at the Chornobyl plant, with the United States providing more than $365 million in total funding towards the New Safe Confinement (NSC) arch that secures the main reactor areas,” the State Department said in an April 29 statement.

“Initially built with a 100-year lifespan, the NSC was damaged last year in a drone strike during the senseless ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. Without repairs, the NSC can no longer provide adequate protection, creating the specter of a dangerous leak of highly radioactive material in Europe.”

According to a report from campaign network Greenpeace, Soviet authorities constructed what was called the Shelter Object over the destroyed Reactor 4 in the aftermath of the 1986 accident.

The Shelter Object aimed to reduce radiation levels at the site, minimize the release of radionuclides into the atmosphere, and prevent water contamination. It was never intended to be permanent and had a design life of around 20 years.

Between 1998 and 2016, the NSC structure was designed and constructed, covering the Shelter Object. NSC was formally commissioned in 2019.

“The NSC was designed to provide a 100-year safe and secure environment for the dismantlement of the Shelter Object and the control of highly radioactive materials inside the building - nuclear fuel, lava-like melted fuel, radioactive dust, and all structural debris,” the report said.

“The design and functioning of the NSC was intended to prevent the release of radioactive materials during the many decades required to conduct this work.”

In February 2025, the NSC was struck by what Ukraine identified as a Russian long-range drone. Moscow denied the claim, saying it does not target nuclear infrastructure and accused Ukraine of staging the incident.

The strike on NSC’s north-west side created an opening of roughly 15 square meters, according to the Greenpeace report. While emergency repairs were initiated on the exterior of the NSC, they could not fully restore the confinement function of the structure.

“This increases the risk of radioactivity release in the environment especially in the case of a collapse of the Shelter Object. The dismantlement of the vulnerable Shelter Object is not possible without repairs to the NSC,” the report said.

“A collapse of the Shelter Object would have significant consequences, including for radiation issues inside the NSC, additional financial costs and in terms of the total collective radiation dose to workers.”

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has initiated a funding program to restore NSC’s functionality, setting 2030 as the deadline to complete the repairs.

The bank warned that without repairs, the structure faces irreversible corrosion within four years.

In its statement, the State Department said it was “proactively committing 20 percent, or $100 million, of the G7’s estimated $500 million cost to rehabilitate the NSC arch and ensure continued safety and security of the Chornobyl reactors and nuclear material.”

“We call upon our G7 and European partners to follow suit and make substantial financial commitments to share the burden of these essential repairs.”

Greenpeace said in an April 14 statement that the ongoing war conditions in the Chornobyl region, including the threat of Russian missiles and drones, make it “near impossible” to kick off major engineering work at the site to repair the NSC.

Eric Schmieman, an engineer who wrote the report and was involved in the design and construction of NSC, said that it’s almost impossible for people to understand the magnitude of lethal conditions inside the Shelter Object.

“Tons of highly radioactive nuclear fuel, dust and debris. My colleagues and I spent years investigating inside the ruins of Chornobyl reactor 4. We designed and built the New Safe Confinement to protect the environment and people of Ukraine and Europe,” Schmieman said.

“It is urgent that all measures are taken to find a way to restore as much of the critical functions of the facility as possible.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 08:10

Nearly 70% Inflation, Mass Layoffs, And A Strangled Economy: Iran's Brutal Test Of Endurance

Iran’s economy is undergoing one of the most brutal stress tests in its modern history. Official annual inflation has surged to 50% according to central bank figures released shortly after the ceasefire, while the year-on-year rate reached as high as 67% through mid-April, according to the Wall Street Journal. The rial has crashed to a record low of 1.8 million to the dollar, roughly two million workers have lost their jobs, and the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to throttle the country’s oil exports and critical imports. Reconstruction costs from bombed infrastructure are estimated near $270 billion - alarmingly close to the country’s entire annual GDP of roughly $341 billion last year. What was already a sanctions-battered, mismanaged economy now confronts a grinding “no war, no peace” stalemate. Tehran is wagering that it can hunker down and endure a protracted war - allowing it to outlast American pressure. The early data and on-the-ground reality suggest that wager is being tested to its limits.

The human impact is immediate and visible in everyday Tehran life. A 56-year-old housewife described to Najmeh Bozorgmehr of the Financial Times how a simple block of cheese rose from 5.2 million rials to 6.7 million rials (about $5.09) in a single week. Comparable jumps have struck rice, eggs, chicken, red meat, and other staples. A popular Peugeot 207 has climbed from 18 billion rials to 25 billion since the conflict began, while officials are preparing to authorize a 40 percent increase in government-mandated cement prices.

The cost of living has soared, with the annual inflation rate reaching 67% in the month through mid-April from the same period a year earlier, according to Iran’s central bank. The subsidized price of red meat, which was mostly imported through sea routes, has gone up to the equivalent of around $3.60 a pound, beyond the reach of most in a country where the minimum wage is around $130 a month. -WSJ

Business consultant Siamak Ghassemi publicly advised Iranians that anything short of a near-doubling of wages would fail to offset the cost-of-living explosion. One small petrochemical-dependent factory outside the capital has already dismissed nearly a third of its workforce. A clothing business owner reported recent costs running 150 percent above sales, bluntly concluding, “This is not sustainable.”

A street vendor on the Tehran Metro last week. Unemployment stood at 7.6% before the US-Israeli war with Iran © Vahid Salemi/AP va FT

Macro indicators reveal the depth of the damage. The Journal’s reporting, informed by Iranian officials and international analysts, estimates around one million direct job losses and another million indirect - equivalent to roughly 8 percent of the pre-war employed population of 25 million. War-related unemployment benefit applications have already reached 191,000. Steel output has dropped by up to 30 percent, while damaged petrochemical, gas, and steel complexes - major employers - grapple with raw-material shortages and physical destruction. Oil exports, which averaged 1.85 million barrels per day as recently as March, have been reduced to a near standstill, with shipping analysts at Kpler finding no confirmed evidence of cargoes successfully breaching the US blockade to reach buyers in China or elsewhere.

At the strategic core of the crisis lies the Strait of Hormuz. Iran initially tried to use the waterway as leverage by disrupting traffic; the US responded with a naval blockade that has effectively severed the Islamic Republic’s economic lifeline. Before the war, the strait carried the vast majority of Iran’s oil revenue and imports ranging from food and medicine to industrial components. In response, Tehran has activated emergency bypass routes: rail and road connections through Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, Caspian Sea ports supplied by Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, and new transit corridors via Pakistan. It has drawn heavily on strategic food reserves, raised the minimum wage, increased government salaries, issued monthly food coupons worth around $7 per person, and appealed to citizens to conserve energy and reduce driving.

Yet these measures are widely viewed as temporary holding operations rather than solutions. Virginia Tech economist Djavad Salehi-Isfahani told the Journal that Iranian leaders recognize ending the war is merely the prelude to an even harder challenge: managing a disillusioned and impoverished population without the rapid return of oil income. Middle East Institute fellow Alex Vatanka points out that while the regime can still portray endurance as a badge of national pride, prolonged revenue collapse increases the risk of renewed street mobilization. Vienna-based economist Mahdi Ghodsi offered a stark assessment: “Living is not affordable anymore. Iran is at its weakest point.”

One medium-sized steel entrepreneur told FT that his firm has so far avoided layoffs by shifting entirely to overland routes, but he expressed deep concern about how long this uncertain limbo can continue. Pre-war protests, already triggered by economic distress and crushed with lethal force earlier this year, provide a sobering precedent. The regime retains a formidable toolkit - subsidies, repression, parallel trade networks, and a narrative of resistance - but whether these tools can withstand another year of 50-percent-plus inflation, double-digit unemployment, and eroding living standards is the central question. This is not a sudden collapse, but a brutal, extended test of endurance whose outcome will shape not only Iran’s economy but the broader regional balance of power.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 07:50

AfD Vows To Drain 'NGO Swamp' After Berlin Café That Bans White People Received Taxpayer Cash

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) has vowed to cut off taxpayer money for left-wing activist groups after a Berlin organization that runs a coworking café that reportedly excludes White people received more than €662,000 in public funding.

The controversy centers on BIWOC Rising, a nonprofit group in Berlin-Kreuzberg that operates a coworking space and café marketed as a protected venue for Black, Indigenous, and women of color, as well as transgender, intersex, and nonbinary people of color.

Critics say the model amounts to a publicly subsidized space that excludes white people while presenting itself as a project for tolerance, diversity, and democracy.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel said the case showed why the party wants to overhaul Germany’s taxpayer-funded activist sector.

“A Berlin café that bans white people from entering was funded with €662,450 in taxpayer money — from the federal program ‘Democracy in Action!’ Pure racism! The AfD will drain the NGO swamp and end the waste of taxpayer money on left-wing ideology,” she wrote on X.

Ein Berliner Café, das Weißen den Zutritt verbietet, wurde mit 662.450 Euro Steuergeld gefördert - aus dem Bundesprogramm „Demokratie leben!“. Rassismus pur! Die AfD wird den NGO-Sumpf austrocknen & die Steuergeldverschwendung für linke Ideologie beenden.https://t.co/Ky6H66dbll

— Alice Weidel (@Alice_Weidel) April 29, 2026

According to German media reports citing funding lists from the Federal Ministry for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth, BIWOC Rising received €662,450 from the federal “Live Democracy!” program between 2021 and 2024. Other calculations place the figure closer to €800,000 when related funding is included, according to reporting from Tichys Einblick.

The program was created to support democracy, counter extremism, and prevent radicalization, but critics say the BIWOC Rising case exposes how public money has been channeled into highly ideological projects.

The group’s official charitable purposes reportedly include education, the promotion of tolerance, and support for people persecuted on political, racial, or religious grounds. However, questions have been raised over how those aims can be reconciled with a venue that restricts access according to racial and identity categories.

The organization is believed not to have responded to media inquiries about the allegations.

It’s not the first time allegations of White racism have been made within German institutions. In August 2023, a German museum of industrial heritage in Dortmund was scolded for only allowing “Black, Indigenous, and People of Color” to enter the museum on Saturdays between 10:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m. for the “That’s Colonial” exhibition. The Zollern Colliery museum argued it was creating a “safer space” intended to protect people of color from “further discrimination.”

The exclusive access was “an offer for BIPoC and black people to be able to withdraw and exchange ideas openly,” according to the museum. “For BIPoC, such safe spaces are rarely found in everyday life or in museum rooms.”

In May 2025, the German Evangelical Church (EKD) was accused of racism after banning White children from attending a workshop on being “courageous and strong” during its Church Congress in Hanover.

The “Become Courage and Strong” workshop was, again, only open to Black, indigenous, and children of color. However, while ethnic Germans and ethnic Europeans are indigenous to Germany and Europe, the designation did not apply to them, only indigenous people from other continents.

“This offer is aimed exclusively at Black, Indigenous, and children of color,” read the program website.

In January of this year, the German taxpayer-funded NGO “Black Sheep,” Schwarze Schafe in German, was offering a six-month intensive seminar designed specifically for White individuals to examine their “alleged privileges,” which is modeled after the concept of “Critical Whiteness.”

The organization, which identifies as a “post-migrant education initiative,” has received significant taxpayer funding from Germans and operates a reporting center for anti-Muslim racism.

White participants were expected to pay up to €2,290 for the course that runs from March to September.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 07:30

The post Five Big Takeaways from the First Quarter GDP Report appeared first on CEPR.

Bombshell Sexual-Harassment Suit Against JPM's Lorna Hajdini Called "Complete Fabrication"

The British tabloid newspaper Daily Mail first broke the story earlier this week about a former JPMorgan staffer who claimed that an executive director on JPM's leveraged finance team turned him into a "sex slave" by drugging him with Rohypnol and Viagra, according to a bombshell lawsuit. However, it now appears that the sexual harassment suit was "fabricated," according to a new report.

The New York Post reported late Thursday that Chirayu Rana, now a principal at Bregal Sagemount, filed the suit under the pseudonym "John Doe," alleging that Lorna Hajdini drugged him, forced him to have sex, and threatened his bonus.

"Rana has been accused of making fabricated sexual-harassment claims against a high-ranking executive at the bank after an internal investigation found no evidence of wrongdoing," the NYPost said, citing sources.

Hajdini's lawyers issued this statement to NYPost:

"Lorna categorically denies the allegations. She never engaged in any inappropriate conduct with this individual of any kind and has never even been to the location where the alleged sexual assault supposedly took place."

Rana apparently filed an internal complaint in May 2025 with JPM, alleging race- and gender-based harassment and abuse of power before his exit. During this time, he allegedly tried to negotiate a payoff that ran into the "millions," sources said. He also accused JPM of retaliation and of failing to investigate properly.

A JPM spokesperson told the outlet that its HR and legal teams reviewed phone records and emails, and interviewed employees, but found no merit to the claims. The bank said Rana refused to participate in the investigation or provide key facts.

"Following an investigation, we don't believe there's any merit to these claims," the spokesperson said. "While numerous employees cooperated with the investigation, the complainant refused to participate and declined to provide facts that would be central to supporting his allegations."

Notably, the outlet said, "Rana did not report to Hajdini. The two were simply colleagues on the leveraged finance team, which works on large corporate acquisitions, mergers, and buyouts."

JPM colleagues told the outlet that Hajdini is viewed internally as "a top performer," and that Rana "has tarnished her with a complete fabrication" after the suit, which was reported by the Daily Mail and subsequently by Indian media outlets. Most Western media outlets stayed away from the story, but X meme accounts had a field day.

Hajdini's Bloomberg profile saw a surge in activity on Thursday.

"That sucks, she got dragged through the news cycle because of this loser. On the plus side, she sort of looks like a legend now, especially now that they claim its fabricated, now she has this power lore around her of being a boss bitch," X user Autism Capital opined.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 07:10

Exxon & Chevron Shares Jump After Big Q1 Earnings Beat

The impact of the war in Iran is on full display this morning in the earnings of two oil giants - Chevron and Exxon Mobil - as both smashed earnings expectations (despite production pressures).

Ahead of the results, Exxon and Chevron had both flagged major reductions in 1Q earnings due to “timing effects,” or paper losses on derivatives tied to cargoes that had not yet reached their destinations before the end of the quarter.

These accounting charges are expected to fully unwind and turn a profit over the coming quarters but will contribute to messy numbers this morning. 

Exxon will take a hit of about $3.7 billion while Chevron’s will be about $3.2 billion, the companies guided earlier this month. 

Chevron exceeded profit expectations as higher oil and natural gas prices, as well as supplies from the acquisition of Hess Corp., outweighed production outages from the Iran war. As Bloomberg's Kevin Crowley highlighted: Adjusted first-quarter net income of $1.41 a share was 51 cents higher than the average estimate from analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

Surging prices for crude and gas, combined with growth from Chevron’s new stake in a giant Guyanese field, helped cushion the blow from a 5% sequential drop in overall output.

Chevron already had warned that significant accounting losses on derivatives tied to cargoes that had yet to reach their destinations. Notoriously difficult to model, that guidance prompted some analysts to slash estimates, a factor that may have played into the magnitude of Friday’s beat.

Chevron’s outsized earnings owed much to swelling prices for real-world oil from places such as Kazakhstan, as well as fat margins from processing the company’s own crude through refineries, Chief Financial Officer Eimear Bonner said in an interview.

“Bottom line, execution exceeded expectations,” she said.

Exxon Mobil outperformed expectations after oil-production increases from Guyana and the Permian Basin helped offset supply losses due to the Middle East war. Bloomberg's Kevin Crowley highlighted: Adjusted first-quarter net income of $1.16 a share was 20 cents higher than the average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

Although profit dropped to a five-year low of $4.9 billion, that figure included the impact of temporary accounting charges tied to derivative contracts that the company expects to fully unwind over the coming months.

Even so, Exxon may revise guidance that forecast full-year daily output equivalent to 4.9 million barrels as the Iran war chokes Middle East energy flows and prevents the Texas oil giant from selling crude and liquefied natural gas from the region.

“Part of the challenge with giving guidance is, as you would imagine, we really don’t know how long the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed,” Chief Financial Officer Neil Hansen said in an interview.

Higher energy prices added $1.7 billion to earnings during the quarter, outweighing a $400 million blow from war-related production outages, according to company figures. Roughly 15% of Exxon’s worldwide output remains offline, Hansen said.

Exxon Mobil shares are up almost 2% in the pre-market...

And Chevron shares are also up around 2%...

Today's results follow big beats by European supermajors...

BP, the first supermajor to report first-quarter results, posted a big beat Tuesday. Earnings more than doubled from a year earlier to $3.2 billion, boosted by its trading and refining businesses.

French supermajor TotalEnergies raised share buybacks and dividends when reporting results Wednesday, on the back of soaring oil and gas prices as well as strong trading performance.

Italian major Eni also boosted share buybacks this quarter thanks to stronger cash-flow expectations.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 06:49