Individual Economists

Housing April 21st Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.4% Week-over-week, Up 33.4% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk -

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.4% week-over-week.
Inventory is now up 15.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.  
Usually, inventory is up about 6% or 7% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup in inventory.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Altos Year-over-year Home InventoryClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 32.6% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 33.4%), and down 16.7% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 17.5%). 
Inventory will pass 2020 levels in the next two weeks, and it now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025.
Altos Home InventoryThis second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of April 18th, inventory was at 719 thousand (7-day average), compared to 702 thousand the prior week. 
Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube

Knives Out For Hegseth: New Allegations Of OPSEC Failures, Pentagon Mismanagement

Zero Hedge -

Knives Out For Hegseth: New Allegations Of OPSEC Failures, Pentagon Mismanagement

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is taking heavy fire once again. In what looks like a coordinated attack, Sunday brought a sensational new allegation of Hegseth violating operational security (OPSEC) ahead of the March 15 US strikes on Yemen, and an op-ed from a former Hegseth advocate calling for his removal over "total chaos at the Pentagon." While it's hard to discern motives in DC's House of Cards intrigue, the renewed assault comes after Hegseth reportedly helped dissuade President Trump from launching Israel's long-pursued US war on Iran

Last month, Hegseth found himself in the middle of a media and political firestorm after he unwittingly shared detailed information about pending US strikes on Yemen with Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg -- who was errantly added to a Signal group chat for top officials by national security advisor Mike Waltz . Hegseth didn't do himself any favors by downplaying the report and attempting to obfuscate the facts of the scandal -- for example, using wordplay to claim "nobody was texting war plans," but rather minute-by-minute details of the attack. Goldberg's inclusion aside, the use of a common smartphone app to discuss such sensitive details was controversial by itself, raising concerns not only about OPSEC, but also records retention. 

Did civilian Jennifer Hegseth have a need to know the 1st strike package of F-18s would launch at 12:15 ET on March 15, and that "THE FIRST BOMBS WILL DEFINITELY DROP" AT 1415, as Hegseth texted her and his brother? 

Fast-forward to Sunday, when a double-tap attack on Hegseth started with a New York Times report that Hegseth shared substantially identical, advance details about the March 15 strikes with a second Signal chat group, whose 13 members included his wife Jennifer, brother Phil and personal lawyer Tim Parlatore. Citing four sources familiar with this group chat and its contents, the Times reported that this group -- labelled "Defense/Team Huddle" -- was created by Hegseth himself, who accessed it with his private phone, not his government one.  

While his personal lawyer and brother have DOD jobs, neither seemingly had a "need to know" about the attacks. Hegseth appointed Parlatore as a Navy Reserve JAG Commander, with a focus on improving the training of JAG officers. Phil Hegseth is a DOD liaison with the Department of Homeland Security -- a post that hardly suggests a need to know about the imminent strike, much less a timeline detailing that F-18s, MQ-9 Reaper drones and Tomahawk cruise missiles would be used. 

In other words, this scenario seems to indicate a Secretary of Defense excitedly and unjustifiably sharing inside info with his wife and confidants. Validating his confirmation-opponents' attacks on his lack of experience, the decision seems consistent with a SecDef whose own top military rank was Major in the National Guard. Meanwhile, the Signal chat about Yemen isn't the first time Jennifer Hegseth's involvement in her husband's job has raised eyebrows. Questions have also been raised over why Jennifer -- a former Fox News producer with no DOD job -- has participated in multiple meetings that covered sensitive topics, including one with the head of UK's military to discuss terminating the sharing of intelligence with Ukraine. 

John Ullyot -- who publicly advocated for Hegseth's confirmation -- now says Trump should dump him over Pentagon "dysfunction"

The second half of the weekend blitz against Hegseth came in the form of a Politico op-ed written by John Ullyot, a former champion of Hegseth who resigned from a Department of Defense public affairs role last month. He described the last month as "total chaos at the Pentagon," saying that, given President Trump's "strong record of holding his top officials to account...it’s hard to see Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth remaining in his role for much longer." 

In addition to the poor OPSEC of "Signalgate" and Hegseth's attempt to use a "vague, Clinton-esque non-denial denial" of the scandal, Hegseth focused on last week's firing of three top Pentagon staffers: senior adviser Dan Caldwell, deputy chief of staff Darin Selnick and chief of staff Colin Carroll. Ullyot wrote that Hegseth loyalists "tried to smear the aides anonymously," dishonestly accusing them of leaking sensitive information. "Hegseth’s team has developed a habit of spreading flat-out, easily debunked falsehoods anonymously about their colleagues on their way out the door," wrote Ullyot. The "strange and baffling purge" is causing "disarray," wrote Ullyot, who also called out the odd inclusion of Hegseth's wife in sensitive meetings. 

"The president deserves better than the current mishegoss at the Pentagon," concluded Ullyot. "Given his record of holding prior Cabinet leaders accountable, many in the secretary’s own inner circle will applaud quietly if Trump [fires Hegseth]." 

No matter how much credence you attach to substance of these attacks on Hegseth, it's smart to consider the possible motives of those who are participating in them: the four people volunteering details about the newly-revealed Signal group chat, Hegseth cheerleader-turned-assailant John Ullyot, the New York Times, and especially Politico -- an outlet with a record of advancing the Deep State agenda. (Never forget the Oct 19 2020 Politico headline: "Hunter Biden Story is Russian Disinfo, Dozens of Former Intel Officials Say.")   

On one front, Hegseth is going all-out on behalf of the national security apparatus, joining Trump in a campaign to throw perhaps every dollar of DOGE savings into a Pentagon rathole in a bid to push the DOD budget beyond $1 trillion:

However, Hegseth may be an intolerable Deep State disappointment on a far more important front -- failing to deliver the US war on Iran that's been a decades-long ambition of the State of Israel and its American collaborators. Last week, the Times reported that Trump killed an Israeli proposal for a US-facilitated, week-long IDF bombing campaign on Iranian nuclear facilities in May, attributing the decision to key naysayers that included Hegseth, Vice President JD Vance, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles. Contemplating the specter of such an attack sparking an all-out war, Trump opted to give diplomacy a chance. 

That's the last thing many Deep State power brokers want.  

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 08:00

How Might Washington's Relations With Ukraine & Russia Change If It Abandons Its Peace Efforts?

Zero Hedge -

How Might Washington's Relations With Ukraine & Russia Change If It Abandons Its Peace Efforts?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

The US might cut off military aid to Ukraine while suspending its strategic resource talks with Russia...

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday that the US might stop mediating an end to the Ukrainian Conflict if it concludes within “a matter of days” that no peace deal is doable.

That coincided with the Wall Street Journal reporting that Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff told them that “Putin had been fixated on Ukrainian land in their discussions. He said that Russia might get some of the regions, but not all.”

This analysis here explained why it’s so important for Russia to obtain full control over the disputed lands.

If no breakthrough is achieved, such as the US coercing Ukraine into withdrawing from those regions or Russia agreeing to freeze this dimension of the conflict, then the US might indeed abandon its peace efforts. The question therefore arises of how that could change its relations with Ukraine and Russia. Beginning with the first, Trump and his team’s explicitly expressed exhaustion with this conflict bodes ill for the scenario of the US continuing military support for Ukraine, which would please Russia.

The Europeans would try to replace some of this lost aid in order to keep the conflict going in alignment with Zelensky’s vision, but they’d be unable to replace all of it and he might ultimately be forced into agreeing to worse terms than the US’ if Russia successfully expands its ground offensive. At the same time, however, the US might also suspend its talks with Russia on the strategic resource deals that were supposed to serve as the centerpiece of their planned “New Détente” as long as the conflict continues

This balanced approach would be predicated on pressuring Ukraine and Russia into committing to compromises aimed at restoring the US-led peace talks since the first doesn’t want to lose territory in other regions while the second is interested in shaping the post-conflict era in partnership with the US. These evidently aren’t their top priorities, however, otherwise the land issue would have already been resolved one way or another and there wouldn’t be any talk of the US abandoning its peace efforts.

Other than the unlikely scenario of the US “escalating to de-escalate” on better terms for Ukraine, another comparatively more probable one exists but which is still less likely than the aforesaid, and that’s the US discontinuing military support for Ukraine but continuing resource talks with Russia. These negotiations are connected to Ukraine since the US is seeking privileged terms from Russia in exchange for coercing Kiev into Moscow’s demanded concessions but can still proceed even if that doesn’t occur.

The reason why this scenario is considered less likely than the balanced one described above is because some of the US’ sanctions that impede the clinching of resource deals with Russia can’t easily be lifted without first bringing about an end to the Ukrainian Conflict. Moreover, sanctions relief and the prospect of jointly shaping the post-conflict era are the only carrots that the US can dangle for incentivizing Russia to compromise on ending the conflict, which Trump wants it to do for solidifying his global legacy.

He’s therefore expected to at least temporarily suspend such talks with Russia for that reason in that scenario but might resume them if the conflict remains protracted with no clear diplomatic or military solution. That would make the most sense since he wouldn’t prematurely give up the only means that the US has for incentivizing Russia to compromise for peace but he also wouldn’t lose the objective economic and strategic benefits that a resource deal would bring.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 07:30

Pope Francis Dead At 88

Zero Hedge -

Pope Francis Dead At 88

Vatican News reports that Pope Francis died at the age of 88 at 7:35 a.m. local time (1:35 a.m. EST). Earlier this year, he experienced a severe health crisis that resulted in over a month of hospitalization due to double pneumonia.

Cardinal Kevin Farrell, Camerlengo of the Apostolic Chamber, announced the death of the 266th pope via this statement:

"Dearest brothers and sisters, with deep sorrow I must announce the death of our Holy Father Francis. At 7:35 this morning, the Bishop of Rome, Francis, returned to the house of the Father. His entire life was dedicated to the service of the Lord and of His Church. He taught us to live the values of the Gospel with fidelity, courage, and universal love, especially in favor of the poorest and most marginalized. With immense gratitude for his example as a true disciple of the Lord Jesus, we commend the soul of Pope Francis to the infinite merciful love of the One and Triune God."

Vatican News provided more color on the Pope's deteriorating health leading up to his death on Easter Monday:

  • The Pope was admitted to the Agostino Gemelli Polyclinic Hospital on Friday, February 14, 2025, after suffering from a bout of bronchitis for several days.

  • Pope Francis' clinical situation gradually worsened, and his doctors diagnosed bilateral pneumonia on Tuesday, February 18.

  • After 38 days in hospital, the late Pope returned to his Vatican residence at the Casa Santa Marta to continue his recovery.

To his 1.3 billion followers, Francis signaled a more inclusive stance toward LGBTQ+ Catholics and advocated for open borders in the United States.

Francis was the first pope from Latin America, the first Jesuit to become the head of the Catholic Church, and the first to take the name Francis, inspired by St. Francis of Assisi, who gave up his vast amounts of wealth to live in poverty.

Throughout his tenure (March 13, 2013 to April 21, 2025), Francis also spoke about multiple recurring themes, including compassion, humility, and advocacy. He told followers, "My people are poor, and I am one of them." 

On Sunday, U.S. Vice President JD Vance met with Francis to exchange Easter greetings. 

"I know you have not been feeling great, but it's good to see you in better health," Vance told the Pope, adding, "Thank you for seeing me."

The White House on Monday morning issued condolences on X: 

The death of Francis sets in motion a chain of centuries-old procedures to secure a new pope. Cardinal Kevin Farrell, the Vatican camerlengo, will act as the head of the Vatican in the meantime.

The question is whether the cardinals who choose Francis' successor will read the latest cultural shifts across the West and pick a more traditional pope or continue down the path of progressive inclusiveness.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 06:55

Dollar Crashes On Powell Removal Speculation, Gold Soars To All Time High And Bitcoin Suddenly Spikes

Zero Hedge -

Dollar Crashes On Powell Removal Speculation, Gold Soars To All Time High And Bitcoin Suddenly Spikes

What was a miserable shortened week for the USD has gone from bad to worse in early Asia trading, when the Dollar index suddenly collapsed to a fresh 3 year low

While there is no specific catalyst for the suddenly collapse in the illiquid early Asian session, which sees many countries on extended Easter holiday, Bloomberg quotes traders that hedge funds are selling the dollar against virtually any currencies after National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Friday that President Donald Trump is still exploring ways to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, according to traders.

“The president and his team will continue to study that,” National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Friday when asked by a reporter if removing Powell was an option.

Hassett then suggested, accurately, that the Fed under Powell, who was appointed by Trump during his first term, had acted politically to benefit Democrats.

“The policy of this Federal Reserve was to raise rates the minute President Trump was elected last time, to say that the supply-side tax cuts that were going to be inflationary,” Hassett said, adding that Fed officials opted not to go “on TV and at IMF meetings and warn about the terrible inflation from the obvious runaway spending from Joe Biden, and the obvious runaway spending from Joe Biden was textbook inflationary,” Hassett continued. “And then they cut rates right ahead of the election.”

Hassett, is of course, correct, as we first pointed out two weeks ago...

... as Bank of America's Michael Hartnett pointed out on Friday...

Fed cut 50bps in Sept when stock market at record high, Atlanta Fed was forecasting +3% US GDP growth; Fed now determined not to cut rates after 20% market plunge, Atlanta Fed forecasting -3% GDP growth

... and as former NY Fed president Bill Dudley made crystal clear all the way back in 2019.

But since the market is terrified of the truth, especially if it means that Trump could take monetary policy actions into his own hands, the result has been a wholesale liquidation of all main currency pairs, with the EUR jumping to 3 year highs, even though Europe's economy remains an unmitigated disaster (Germany's upcoming debt spending spree notwithstanding), and even though the surge in the euro will make Europe's modest recession into a brutal one..

... the Yen surging 11% from its January lows, and at just over 141, the highest it has been against the dollar since the summer of 2023...

... and, of course, gold which is storming to new record highs this evening, spiking above $3,373, its dip last week now a distant memory.

Yet none of these moves are surprising to anyone who read - as we repeatedly urged - the Miran Mar-A-Lago paper: yes, the plunge in the dollar is just what the admin quietly wants (they have repeatedly stated they want a strong dollar "in the long term", but certainly not in the short, when the collapse in the greenback will boost US exports). 

Ironically, if Powell will not cut rates to ease financial conditions, Trump's repeated browbeating of the Fed chair and threats to fire him will crash the dollar low enough to where Trump will get his financial easing one way or another.

Still, there was one notable outlier in tonight's Dollar selloff: bitcoin. While previously any plunge in the dollar (and by extension surge in the yen) would batter what was little is left of the carry trade, hammering tech stocks and cryptos, tonight we finally saw a regime shift, and after flatlining initially, a burst of buying pushed bitcoin almost $2000 higher, above $87000, and its biggest one day move since Liberation Day...

... and the result is that while bitcoin had generally tracked the DXY Dollar index lower for much of 2025, the last few weeks - and certainly Sunday night - have seen a very tangible snap in this relationship.

This breach in the right correlation between the two, suggests that with gold approaching ridiculous prices, the next flight to safety away from the collapsing dollar will be bitcoin - after all, it's only a matter of time before all other central banks unleash a money printing frenzy to hammer their own currencies.

And since all bitcoin needs is a little unexpected upside to spark a huge short squeeze and to get the momentum trades piling on, should today's phase reversal sustain for a few days, we may see new all time highs in bitcoin in a very short time.

But wait... because the real fun for non-fiat assets will start once other central banks - such as the BOJ and ECB - can no longer just sit and watch as the dollar disintegrates, pushing their own currencies into the stratosphere and killing their economies... and they retaliate by restarting the next round of global fiat debasement first by slashing rates and then by restarting the money printer.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 06:33

10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My flying home from California reads:

America’s Biggest Export Could Use a Massive Rebrand. One market stands above all else in this regard and that is the market for US Treasuries, which currently totals about $30 trillion and dwarfs pretty much every other thing out there. (Bloomberg)

Trump and Powell on Collision Course Without Easy Escape: The president wants interest rates cut, but his trade war has the Fed chair boxed in. (Wall Street Journal) but see Amazon Is Better Prepared for the Trade War Than Investors Think: The company’s size and global reach give it muscles to flex even in a sour economy (Wall Street Journal)

Bonds Are a Good Bet Again. Where to Find Yields of 6% or More. From junk bonds to munis to mortgage securities, yields are elevated and prices depressed. Ten funds to consider. (Barron’s)

•  What is the Optimal Portfolio Rebalancing Strategy? This white paper arms financial advisors and planners with insights about how different rebalancing strategies, in combination with bullish or bearish market conditions, can affect portfolio performance and risk. (Y Charts)

Nvidia: The AI chip giant caught between US and China. The California-based company will require licenses to export its H20 AI chip to China, a move which the US Commerce Department said was designed to safeguard “national and economic security”. Nvidia said federal officials had told them the requirement will be in force for the “indefinite future”. But why is the company so pivotal in the race for AI supremacy between the US and China? (BBC)

US houses are shrinking as inflation pushes ‘McMansions’ out of reach: Even in Texas, the American dream of home ownership is being downsized because of an affordability crisis. (Financial Times) see also Stubbornly High Mortgage Rates Thwart the Crucial Home-Selling Season: Mortgage rates stayed flat while stock-market volatility and recession fears threaten the housing market (Wall Street Journal)

What Recourse Does the Supreme Court Actually Have? As the Trump administration talks itself into refusing to comply with judicial orders, federal judges are moving closer to deploying the most powerful tool they have: contempt of court. (The Atlantic)

An Advance in Brain Research That Was Once Considered Impossible: Scientists achieved “a milestone” by charting the activity and structure of 200,000 cells in a mouse brain and their 523 million connections. (New York Times)

Former Pentagon official warns department’s dysfunction could topple Hegseth: “The last month has been a full-blown meltdown at the Pentagon,” John Ullyot, the former top Defense Department spokesperson. (Politico)

Richard Kind Is Still Waiting for His Big Break: Amazingly prolific and beloved by Hollywood royalty, the actor has a self-image that belies his status and achievements. “I just work,” he said. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Martin Escobari of, General Atlantic, where he is Chairman, and head of the Global Growth Equity Investment Committee, and Managing Director. Before joining General Atlantic in 2012, Martín was Co-Founder and CFO of Submarino.com, a leading Brazilian online retailer that went public on the Bovespa and was sold to Lojas Americanas in 2006. He was recently appointed to the Harvard Management Company Board.

 

European travellers cancel US visits as Trump’s policies threaten tourism

Source: Financial Times

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

The Failure Of The Expert Class... Again

Zero Hedge -

The Failure Of The Expert Class... Again

Authored by Stephen Soukup via American Greatness,

This past week, The Atlantic ran an excellent, helpful, and important piece by David Zweig, excerpted from his forthcoming book An Abundance of Caution, which is, at least superficially, about the coronavirus pandemic and the school closures it prompted. Zweig denies that it is about the pandemic specifically, saying that it is, rather, about “the failure of the expert class.” Whatever the case, Zweig is unsparing in his criticism:

Without sufficient acknowledgment of the harms of school closures or adequate planning for unwinding this intervention, officials showed that their decisions to close were simply reactive rather than carefully considered. The decision makers set a radical project in motion with no plan on how to stop it. In effect, officials steered a car off the road, threw a cinder block on the accelerator, then jumped out of the vehicle with passengers still in the back. No one was in the front or even knew how to unstick the pedal.

The main point of Zweig’s case is that the so-called expert class was not particularly expert in this instance, which is to say that the damage it did was predictable and therefore preventable. Those in charge, whom we were all urged constantly to “trust,” were either ignorant of existing literature warning of the consequences of the actions they were taking or arrogant enough to think that they could produce outcomes different from those previously forecast. 

In the end, the “experts” failed the nation and especially its children, who suffered disproportionately from their arrogance.

Zweig is right, almost inarguably, and I look forward to reading his book. Nevertheless, I would take his case even a step further, suggesting that the problem is bigger than an arrogant and out-of-touch expert class. The problem, rather, is the largely unique American tradition that insists that expertise and politics must be distinct from one another, and that when they clash, the narrowness of expertise must take precedence over the girth and depth of the democratic crowd.

The COVID pandemic is not the first time that the American people have been let down and dragged down a dark road by their purportedly brilliant experts. Indeed, the defining event of the Baby Boom generation is, perhaps, the greatest (though hardly the only) example of previous “failures of the expert class.”

Americans’ faith in experts and the expert class likely hit its zenith in the 1950s, a decade in which almost anything seemed possible. America had defeated the Nazis and Imperial Japanese. It had rescued Europe from its war and the post-war destruction. It was strong and tough and, of course, it possessed the brightest scientists and the mightiest weapons in all of human history.

On his best-known solo album, The Nightfly, Steely Dan co-founder Donald Fagen reminisced about those days and the promise they held. For example, in “I.G.Y.,” he muses:

Standing tough under stars and stripes
We can tell
This dream’s in sight
You’ve got to admit it
At this point in time that it’s clear
The future looks bright
On that train all graphite and glitter
Undersea by rail
Ninety minutes from New York to Paris
Well by seventy-six we’ll be A. O. K….

A just machine to make big decisions
Programmed by fellows with compassion and vision
We’ll be clean when their work is done
We’ll be eternally free yes and eternally young….

The I, the G, and the Y in the title of Fagen’s song refer to the “International Geophysical Year,” which was an 18-month-long scientific exchange celebration that ran from July 1957 to December 1958. The project was meant to take advantage of a reprieve in Cold War tensions to demonstrate to the world how science could produce lasting peace and harmony. The Soviets spoiled the peace and harmony bit by launching Sputnik three months later, sooner than the Americans could launch their satellite propelled by the rockets of Project Vanguard. In a fitting twist to the utopian agitprop of the IGY project, in response to Sputnik and to Vanguard’s failures, the United States turned, at last, to one of its greatest “experts” on rocket design, the erstwhile Nazi Wernher von Braun.

Of course, most Americans didn’t know about Braun, and so their illusions about the “experts” remained unshattered. In 1960, they elected a man and an administration that would come to epitomize the hope and the faith they placed in their experts. David Halberstam put it as follows in his classic The Best and the Brightest:

We seemed about to enter an Olympian age in this country, brains and intellect harnessed to great force, the better to define a common good… It seems long ago now, that excitement which swept through the country, or at least the intellectual reaches of it, that feeling that America was going to change, that the government had been handed down from the tired, flabby chamber-of-commerce mentality of the Eisenhower years to the best and brightest of a generation.

As the Fates and Nemesis would have it, however, it was the best and brightest who, in their arrogance and insularity, eventually shattered the expertise illusion with their debacle in Vietnam. Again, Halberstam wrote:

There is no small irony here: An administration which flaunted its intellectual superiority and its superior academic credentials made the most critical of decisions with virtually no input from anyone who had any expertise on the recent history of that part of the world, and it in no way factored in the entire experience of the French Indochina War. Part of the reason for this were the upheavals of the McCarthy period, but in part it was also the arrogance of men of the Atlantic; it was as if these men did not need to know about such a distant and somewhat less worthy part of the world. Lesser parts of the world attracted lesser men; years later I came upon a story which illustrated this theory perfectly. Jack Langguth, a writer and college classmate of mine, mentioned to a member of that Administration that he was thinking of going on to study Latin American history. The man had turned to him, his contempt barely concealed, and said, “Second-rate parts of the world for second-rate minds.”

The battle between the “rule of experts” and the rule of the people dates, like most of the dreadful battles in our society, to the dawn of the Progressive Era and the musings of Richard Ely and Woodrow Wilson. The expert class they envisioned proved to be a disaster, just as the Best and the Brightest did—and just as the health and education experts did during COVID.

As I say, the problem here isn’t expertise per se. Expertise is invaluable, obviously. Rather, the problem is the belief that expertise conveys both infallibility and moral superiority and, therefore, should—always and everywhere—be considered superior to the will of the people. Again, this is an artifact of Progressivism, and as important and insightful as books like David Zweig’s may be, they will not alter the dysfunctional operation of our system until we address this original sin.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 06:20

Tesla To Offer "Company Update" With Tuesday's Earnings Report: What To Watch

Zero Hedge -

Tesla To Offer "Company Update" With Tuesday's Earnings Report: What To Watch

Tesla has set its Q1 2025 earnings call for Tuesday, April 22, at 4:30 p.m. CT / 5:30 p.m. ET. As usual, the event will be livestreamed, with a recording available later on Tesla’s website. The Q1 Update Letter will be released after markets close that same day.

This quarter, as multiple Tesla blogs like Teslarati have pointed out, Tesla is also adding a new element: a “Company Update.”

For the first time, the term appeared in both its vehicle delivery report and on the company’s official X account.

“In addition to posting first quarter results, Tesla management will hold a live company update and question and answer webcast that day,” the company stated.

Speculation is growing that Tesla may use the update to reveal more about its upcoming projects, particularly the affordable EVs teased in its Q4 2024 report: “Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025...”

Tesla’s Q1 2025 earnings are expected to show a 4.4% decline in profit to $0.43 per share, with revenue holding steady at $21.45 billion, according to FactSet.

Analyst estimates range from $0.30 to $0.51 per share, but consensus has dropped over 40% since late 2024. Piper Sandler warned the results will “likely underwhelm,” with margins “probably trending near multiyear lows.”

There's five things in particular investors will be looking for in this upcoming report and/or update, IBD noted this weekend.

Investor focus is shifting to Tesla’s promised robotaxi rollout. Musk has said paid rides would begin in Austin this June, but his past claims about autonomy have repeatedly fallen short. The latest FSD update shows modest progress, but it's still far from viable as a robotaxi platform.

The Cybercab—unveiled last year as a two-seater without a steering wheel—is supposed to launch before 2027 at under $30,000.

However, Reuters recently reported that Trump’s 145% tariff on Chinese goods has halted key parts shipments, possibly delaying both the Cybercab and Semi. The Cybercab’s cost-saving “unboxed” manufacturing method also remains unproven.

Tesla’s long-teased affordable EV. Reports suggest the first lower-cost option may just be a simplified Model Y, possibly arriving in 2025 or 2026. 

Vehicle sales for Q1 fell 13% year-over-year to 336,681. Growth is expected to stagnate this year, with consensus forecasting a modest 3% increase in deliveries, though some analysts now expect fewer sales than in 2024.

China sales rose slightly but remain low-margin, while U.S. and European demand has been hit by Musk’s controversial public profile.

While Tesla’s exposure to Trump’s tariffs is limited compared to other automakers, it still relies on Chinese suppliers for battery components, including CATL and BYD. Investors will be watching for updates on how Tesla plans to respond to trade tensions and cost pressures.

Musk’s political involvement is also on watch. He has been rumored to be finishing his work with DOGE by May and people are watching for a potential full-time return to Tesla.

IBD adds that a March YouGov/Yahoo News poll found 67% of U.S. adults wouldn’t consider a Tesla, with 37% citing Musk as the reason. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, a longtime bull, cut his Tesla price target by 40%, calling the situation a “perfect storm” and estimating Tesla has lost at least 10% of its future customer base—potentially more than 20% in Europe.

Demonstrations at dealerships and reports of vandalism continue. Musk is reportedly planning to leave his White House role, but no timeline has been confirmed. Investors will be listening for any update on his level of involvement moving forward.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 05:45

The UK Is Doubling Down On Wind Energy

Zero Hedge -

The UK Is Doubling Down On Wind Energy

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

  • The UK is expanding its wind energy capacity, particularly offshore, with the approval of the Rampion 2 project.

  • The Rampion 2 expansion will add 1.2 GW of capacity, enough to power around 1 million UK homes.

  • The UK government aims to quadruple its offshore wind capacity by 2030 as part of its net-zero carbon goals.

The U.K. is already a world leader in wind energy, having rapidly expanded both its onshore and offshore wind capacity over the last decade. Now, under the new Labour government, the U.K. hopes to expand its wind power sector even further through the massive expansion of the Rampion offshore wind farm. This is expected to help the government progress towards achieving its net-zero carbon ambitions. 

In 2023, 46.4 percent of the UK’s electricity was generated using renewable energy sources, of which wind energy contributed 61 percent. Around 39.7 percent of the U.K.’s wind energy is generated onshore and the remaining 60.3 offshore. The U.K. constructed its first commercial onshore wind farm in 1991, generating 1 GW of wind capacity. In 2024, the U.K.’s wind energy capacity increased to 30GW, double that of 2017. The U.K. has 11,906 turbines, with 9,141 onshore and 2,765 offshore, consisting of 10 floating and 2,755 fixed turbines. 

Approximately 32,000 people are employed in the U.K.’s offshore wind industry, a figure that is expected to increase to over 120,000 by 2030. The government also hopes to achieve 60 GW of wind capacity by the end of the decade, which could add as much as $58.5 billion to the economy. By the beginning of 2025, the U.K. had grown its offshore wind energy capacity to become the largest in Europe and second only to China, at 14 GW. 

In early April, the government approved plans to develop Rampion 2, an offshore wind farm with enough energy to power around 1 million U.K. homes. The expansion of the Rampion offshore wind farm, off England’s south coast, would include the addition of 90 turbines to add 1.2 GW of capacity. The project is expected to create 4,000 jobs during the construction phase, which is scheduled to commence in 2026. The government decision on the expansion was expected to be delivered in February but it has been delayed while more information is collected from the project’s developer. 

The wind farm is being developed by RWE as the majority shareholder (50.1 percent), a Macquarie-led consortium (25 percent), and Enbridge (24.9 percent). The electricity produced at Rampion will be transported to land via subsea cables. An underground cable will then deliver the power inland to a new substation at Oakendene near Cowfold before connecting it to the national grid at Bolney in Sussex. The wind farm is expected to be operational by the late 2020s. 

Danielle Lane, the director of offshore wind development U.K. and Ireland at RWE, stated, “We are delighted to receive the development consent order for the proposed Rampion 2 offshore wind farm. This is a key milestone in the development of the project, as Rampion 2 can play an important role in helping secure the U.K.’s energy supplies from our abundant wind resource and play a key role in supporting the U.K. government’s clean power ambitions.”

Since coming into power last July, the Labour government has gone full throttle on the deployment of green energy, with plans to double the U.K.’s onshore wind, triple its solar power, and quadruple its offshore wind power capacity by 2030. It has also announced plans to reduce the contribution of natural gas to the country’s electricity generation to just 5 percent by the end of the decade. Thanks to the development of a more friendly investment environment, in an event in October some of the world’s largest green energy companies pledged to invest almost $31.39 billion across the U.K., demonstrating that greater public investment in the sector is attracting higher levels of private financing. 

U.K. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said, “The U.K. has a boundless supply of wind that cannot be turned on and off at the whims of dictators and petrostates. It’s time to get off the fossil fuel rollercoaster, roll out clean power, protect our energy security and bring down bills for good.” He added, “This project puts us within reach of our clean power offshore wind target,” Miliband said. “Through our plan for change, we’re getting on with delivering the clean energy and jobs Britain needs.”

Last year was a record year for wind energy production, with onshore and offshore projects producing 83 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity across Great Britain, an increase from almost 79 TWh in 2023. In around 10 days in December alone, over 50 percent of Britain's electricity production came from wind. 

However, there are also less windy periods, where energy production is lower. This suggests the need for greater investment in battery storage technology to make the renewable energy source more reliable and help reduce the U.K.’s reliance on fossil fuels during low-production times.

The U.K. is already a major onshore and offshore producer of wind energy, having developed several projects over the last three decades. 

The approval of the new Rampion 2 project is expected to put the country on track to achieve its end-of-decade climate goals, by decarbonising its transmission network. 

This is one of many clean energy projects the Labour government has announced over the last eight months, with the ambitious green transition agenda expected to attract high levels of private funding in the sector.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 05:10

China Is In Economic Dire Straits And They're No Longer Able To Hide It

Zero Hedge -

China Is In Economic Dire Straits And They're No Longer Able To Hide It

Official economic data from any government is always treated with suspicion by anyone with common sense.  The US, for example, witnessed some of the most egregious statistical tinkering imaginable under the Biden Administration, not to mention outright lies and propaganda from the establishment media on the health of the economy.  To this day no one has been fired (or tarred and feathered) for hiding the reality of the stagflation crisis.  Any government or corporate economist that called the threat "transitory" should be stripped of their financial prestige and banished to a cash register at Arby's.

And let's not forget Biden's misrepresentation of the labor market, portraying millions of new jobs for illegal migrants and visa holders as if they were jobs benefiting American citizens.  In the US and across the western world, lying about the economy is generally seen by politicians as a temporary solution to secure reelection.  However, in China, lying about the economy is treated as a national security imperative.  If there's anything in the world that gives communists a feeling of existential dread, it's the fear that their ideological enemies will discover proof that communism doesn't work.

The Trump Administration's tariffs on China are not the initiator of the nation's troubles, they are more a bookend to a process of decline that has been ongoing for years. 

Overall tariffs on Chinese goods currently sit at 124%, but some goods will be taxed as high as 245%.  Trump has given a 1 month exemption on electronic parts and devices, perhaps to offer manufacturers like Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft time to arrange sourcing from alternative vendors.  The problem for Chinese manufacturers is not just the tariffs but the uncertainty of timing and sudden changes to policy.  They say no one is willing to make a big move on production or shipments until the trade landscape becomes more predictable.  This means most Chinese factories are frozen in stasis.

Trump's tariff actions are widely criticized by the media as erratic or poorly planned, but what they don't understand is that uncertainty is the real leverage, not the tariffs.  What seems like a spur of the moment decision or a sudden capitulation on Trump's part can be highly effective at throwing foreign governments and corporations off balance.  Globalism requires a perpetual status quo, change of any kind is like holy water to a vampire.

Chinese shipments are on standby and orders are frozen.  Nothing is moving.

At bottom, China will not be able to survive tariffs on the current scale for long (a single year of 124% tariffs would crush China's economy beyond repair).  The US is 15% of China's export market, which may not sound substantial but their next largest trading partner (outside of Hong Kong) is Vietnam at 4% of exports.  In terms of domestic buying, China is 11% of the global consumer market which is not too shabby, but compared to the US with its 30%-35% global consumer market share there is no chance that the Chinese will be able to fill the void domestically and stay afloat.

But the situation is far worse than most people know...

China has been suffering from a deflationary crisis since 2023.  An uptick in exports during the pandemic was offset by the CCP's draconian lockdowns.  This was, essentially, fiscal suicide on the part of the government and China has been struggling ever since.  Their property market has imploded, partially due to overbuilding through government subsidized infrastructure programs that flooded the market with poorly constructed homes and buildings that were then left to rot.  Corporate defaults have run rampant and left investors with nothing.

There was some optimism that the government’s measures to end the crisis had been working to reinvigorate the market, but on Mar 31st, government-linked developer Vanke reported a record 49.5 billion yuan (S$9.1 billion) annual loss for 2024.  It’s the company’s first full-year loss since its initial public offering in 1991, reigniting concerns about the sector and showing just how deep the problem runs.

When these projects do finally see some progress it is often due to dangerously poor construction standards and subpar workmanship; what many now refer to as "Tofu Dreg" buildings.

The deflationary spiral has been eating away at employment and has also resulted in numerous factories refusing to pay their workers on time (or at all).  Unpaid wages are leading to frequent protests and a disturbing trend of factory fires.  The government is limited in how it can respond to the problem.  Stimulus is an option, but China's overall non-financial debt is well over 300% of GDP already. 

China's attempts to hide the decay from the outside world are becoming less and less effective.  With Chinese citizens able to access the internet beyond the "Great Firewall", more and more videos are being leaked by people within the country who are tired of the misinformation.  Again, the CCP views negative economic data as a national security threat and any citizen caught leaking this info could be subject to harsh punishment.  Chinese citizens have taken substantial risks to get the truth out there.  

It cannot be stressed enough that the global economy is largely a farce, but China is closest to the edge of the cliff in terms of consequences and crisis.  The interdependency of globalism has left many nations without the ability to weather a trade dispute and China's survival is almost entirely based on steady exports to the west and the US in particular. 

Don't let high paid TikTok and YouTube influencers fool you with videos of Chinese skyscrapers caked with LED lights or lavish parties with dancing robots.  This is not the true China.  Underneath the facade is a nation on the brink of disaster.   

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 04:35

Minerals In Hand, Africa's Trade Envoys Head For The US

Zero Hedge -

Minerals In Hand, Africa's Trade Envoys Head For The US

Authored by Darren Taylor via The Epoch Times,

Mcebisi Jonas doesn’t usually suffer from nerves. If he did, he wouldn’t have survived a brutal guerrilla campaign against South Africa’s apartheid foot-soldiers in the 1970s and 1980s.

“As a cadre for the ANC [then-banned African National Congress], I was fighting for freedom from racism, for black people’s right to vote, for human rights,” he told The Epoch Times.

“Now, I am about to fight another, very different battle. I am a bit nervous, but I am ready to talk with any and all representatives of the U.S. president, and I trust we will treat one another with respect,” said Pretoria’s eloquent former minister of finance and now successful businessman.

Jonas is part of a recently created exclusive club of special envoys appointed by most of Africa’s 54 countries to negotiate better export terms they hope will allow them to sell their goods for “reasonable profit” in the world’s most lucrative market.

This followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s April 2 announcement of tariffs on goods exported to the United States by its economic partners. Trump has said the duties would correct trade imbalances he said are unfair to America.

A week later, Trump paused his reciprocal tariffs for 90 days—except for those on China—indicating that many countries had reached out and that the United States was open to negotiations.

If nothing were to change after the 90-day pause, some of the highest tariffs—between 30 and 50 percent—would be for products imported from Africa.

Africa’s envoys are now rushing to meet the deadline in July when the raised duties are scheduled to come into effect.

A man melts pure gold fragments coming from different mines in the region, at a gold market in Geita, Tanzania, on May 28, 2022. Luis Tato/AFP via Getty Images

“Most African countries export much more to the United States than they import from the United States, so the Trump administration calculated that trade between the regions is unfairly weighted towards Africa and that the United States is losing out,” explained Morné Malan, deputy head of policy at South Africa’s Free Market Foundation.

Besides trade deficits, Trump also looked for other signs of trade barriers as criteria for imposing tariffs.

Kenya, with which the United States enjoyed a trade surplus, is an example.

According to the United States Trade Representative, East Africa’s largest economy exported goods—mainly textiles, coffee, tea, and fruit—to the value of $737.3 million to the United States in 2024.

That year, Kenya imported goods worth $782.5 million from the United States, primarily petroleum products, aircraft and related parts, machinery, and pharmaceuticals, giving the United States a trade surplus of $45.2 million.

Despite this, President William Ruto’s government had anticipated that Trump would hit Kenya with a higher tariff, as Nairobi charges a 10 percent tax on American imports.

So, said Trade and Industry cabinet secretary, Lee Kinyanjui, the country went into “damage control mode,” dispatching a team of negotiators to the White House a day before Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement.

Although the Kenyan government’s main objective of securing duty-free or “very favourable duty access” for its goods into the U.S. market is still the subject of talks, Trump levied a reciprocal tariff of only 10 percent on Nairobi.

“We believe it helped us a lot to speak to Trump’s people ahead of his announcement, and directly afterwards,” Kinyanjui told The Epoch Times.

“We are considering a free trade agreement with the United States, and that will mean the scrapping of the tariff on American goods entering Kenya, and we will hopefully still export duty-free to the United States. That is reciprocity.”

Steven Gruzd of the South African Institute of International Affairs described Kenya as a “bit of an anomaly.”

“I am no fan of the African governments that steal their countries’ resources and keep their people poor, but I must also agree that it’s a bit of a stretch to expect nations with low GDPs and tiny budgets and huge debts and low manufacturing bases to import at large scale expensive goods, products and services from the wealthiest economy in the world,” he told The Epoch Times.

It is in this context that the African envoys will visit the White House.

“He’s about to enter a lion’s den,” Malan said of Jonas, the South African diplomat.

Artisanal miners collect gravel from the Lukushi river searching for cassiterite in Manono, Democratic Republic of Congo, on Feb. 17, 2022 Junior Kannah/AFP via Getty Images

The United States’ 31 percent tariffs on South Africa—which was included in a list of 60 nations Trump said had traded with his country unfairly during his announcement on April 2—is just the president’s latest salvo against the continent’s largest, most industrialized economy.

The country featured prominently in the series of executive orders Trump has signed since re-entering the White House on Jan. 20.

In one of his first executive orders, the U.S. leader accused Pretoria of implementing racist laws aimed at discriminating and encouraging violence against white Afrikaners.

Trump subsequently withdrew $440 million in annual funding to South Africa, resulting in a slowdown of the country’s HIV treatment and prevention program.

He said South Africa is a threat to U.S. national security as its ANC government has military and economic alliances with some of Washington’s primary geopolitical foes, including China, Iran, and Russia.

Trump also criticized Pretoria for launching a case of genocide in the Gaza war against Israel at the International Court of Justice. The war was triggered by terrorist group Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel.

Then, Secretary of State Marco Rubio expelled South Africa’s ambassador to Washington, the ANC’s Ebrahim Rasool, after the diplomat described Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement and his administration as “supremacist.”

Jonas grimaced and said, “Yes, recent history between South Africa and the United States is not good.

“But I am convinced we can cooperate going forward and we can come to a mutually beneficial agreement that will foster the flow of American goods into our country, and vice versa.”

Steven Gruzd of the South African Institute of International Affairs said that, in communications within the Trump administration, “it has become clear that they consider Pretoria to be the enemy, giving the [President Cyril] Ramaphosa government the same status as Beijing and Moscow and Tehran.”

Like many in Africa, said Gruzd, Pretoria has “good cards to deal” to convince the U.S. president. Its cards are beaming the allure of the continent’s vast resources, which include precious metals like gold and platinum, and critical minerals essential to energy security and defense, as they’re major components of weapons and military equipment.

In a paper analyzing Africa’s potential responses to the U.S. tariffs, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington said 24 of Africa’s 54 countries are dependent on mining and minerals for income.

Africa holds a third of the world’s critical minerals, according to a study by U.S. think-tank The Atlantic Council.

South Africa already supplies almost all of America’s chromium and provides a quarter of its manganese requirements.

Manganese is a diverse mineral, used to produce steel and rechargeable batteries.

Chromium features prominently in weapons manufacturing, including missile systems and fighter jets.

Other minerals produced at a large scale by African countries include lithium, used in electric car batteries, and coltan, used in communications equipment like cell phones and computers.

Although Trump has exempted critical minerals from tariffs, Gruzd said South Africa’s mineral wealth still has a role in possibly lowering the U.S. levies on South Africa, considering the Trump administration’s wish to reduce U.S. dependency on Chinese supplies.

“China dominates Africa’s minerals sector, and it has mines all over the place, from DRC [Democratic Republic of Congo] to Zambia to Guinea,” Gruzd said.

“Beijing’s harvesting of the continent’s minerals and metals and processing them has placed the United States at an immense disadvantage in terms of making sure it has a reliable supply of these critical items well into the future.

Gruzd said if the United States and South Africa can strike a deal on critical minerals, “that would be a big win, politically and economically, for the Trump administration.”

“If Trump is offered mining rights in certain African countries, this would go a long way in persuading him to lower tariffs and perhaps even drop them because it would give the United States a big foothold in global supply chains,” he said.

The CSIS said that Trump should revoke tariffs on African countries and that the African Union and African leaders “should seek to demonstrate that preferential trade with the continent, in fact, overall serves U.S. national interests.”

“Just like Canada and Mexico were exempt from the reciprocal tariffs due to the United States’ national interest, a similar case can be made for Africa in terms of market access and critical minerals supply chain security,” wrote economic development experts Hannah Ryder, Trevor Lwere, and Ovigwe Eguegu.

“As tariffs are set to hit U.S. firms in the automotive, aerospace, and chemical sectors, which are heavily dependent on critical minerals, the bulk of which Africa has, it is not in the U.S. interest to impose tariffs on African goods.”

Ryder, Lwere, and Eguegu highlighted that one of the Trump administration’s aims is to gain greater market access for American firms and products abroad.

“This requires the existence of purchasing power amongst foreign consumers. By imposing tariffs on African exports to the United States, however, the United States makes it difficult for Africa to obtain the purchasing power necessary to demand U.S. products,” they said.

The experts said the United States should support preferential access for African goods to the American market as a market-building strategy.

This is critical, they wrote, especially considering that Africa has the youngest population and will be home to over 25 percent of the global population in the next few decades.

Bamidele Ayemibo, lead trade policy consultant at Nigeria’s 3T Impex Consulting Limited, said African governments’ response to Trump’s tariffs should be to sign preferential trade agreements with the United States—and with other partners.

“The last thing they should do is retaliate with higher tariffs on U.S. products; they do not have the economic power to do so and they will only hurt themselves,” he told The Epoch Times.

“Now, more than ever, it is time for talk and for bargaining.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 04:00

Defund The Cartels: A Smarter Plan For The Border

Zero Hedge -

Defund The Cartels: A Smarter Plan For The Border

Authored by Mollie Engelhart via The Epoch Times,

I don’t fit neatly into a political box, especially when it comes to immigration. I’m a wife to a man who came here illegally at 16. I’ve taken legal guardianship of an unaccompanied minor and folded him into my family. I work in both hospitality and agriculture—industries that rely heavily on immigrant labor. My views on the border don’t align with any party line, and I’m aware that people on both sides of the aisle might find something in this article to disagree with. But that doesn’t make the conversation less necessary. It makes it more urgent.

America needs labor. That’s not up for debate. We’ve raised a few generations of kids who are not equipped for hard, uncomfortable work—especially those who came of age during the pandemic. I’ve had over 350 employees at any one time in my businesses, and I’ve watched the workforce shift dramatically in just 10 years.

At the same time, I believe a border wall is not racist.

A wall, like a fence or a locked front door, doesn’t carry moral weight. Strong borders make good neighbors. But let’s be honest: the southern border is already secured—just not by us. It’s secured by the Mexican cartels. 

Every person crossing is paying $10,000 to $13,000 to make that journey—not including the pre-planned robbery that happens to nearly every person along the way, and sometimes additional financial extortion afterward. 

We’re not just turning a blind eye to this—we’re funding it. 

Our labor shortage—our need for labor—is creating a massive revenue source for the cartels.

Many commentators scream, “Come legally!”—but the reality is, there are almost no viable legal pathways for Mexicans to do so.

Unlike people from other countries, Mexicans cannot easily claim asylum. Citizens of many Central and South American nations can claim asylum and stay in the United States while they await trial—a process that often takes five to 10 years. Even if their claim is denied, most never leave. Mexicans do not have this option. We are effectively prioritizing other nations over our immediate neighbor, and it makes no sense. We should be prioritizing Mexico first, and then Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras.

The humanitarian crisis is not what the media portrays. The real crisis is what happens before these people arrive - the women and children abused, trafficked, and disappeared in cartel territory.

It’s the man who hasn’t seen his mother in 20 years, or the woman who has children on both sides of the border and cannot return to see her children or grandchildren. She may never see her children here again. These are real stories. I live with them in my family and in my community. My husband didn’t see his mother for 12 years prior to marrying me and becoming an American citizen.

Yes, America is a melting pot. Yes, we welcome the tired and the poor. But no, we cannot take everyone. It’s not sustainable. And pretending otherwise only perpetuates suffering.

Let’s create a 10-year low-skill work visa. It would cost $10,000 - money that currently goes to cartels. Workers would be permitted to come and go, visit family, and live with dignity. Employment would be mandatory; workers could not remain unemployed longer than three months. Applicants must have no criminal history. This visa would never lead to citizenship, even through marriage. The best case would be a green card, but not a vote. Workers would pay taxes and contribute $10 per paycheck to Social Security, which they would never draw from. After 10 years, the visa could be renewed once—or the worker could return home.

We would prioritize Mexico, and then Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras—because a strong neighbor is national security. If your neighbor’s house is burning down, your own home is at risk. 

A strong, thriving Mexico makes for a safer America. 

A healthy economy and stable society in the countries closest to us reduces pressure on our border and increases mutual prosperity.

This plan would dismantle the cartels’ business model, reunite families, end the incentive to bring children as props for border entry, and redirect billions of dollars from crime syndicates to the U.S. government. Migrants could fly directly into cities where jobs await—no more treacherous desert crossings or predatory smugglers.

One side of the aisle screams that we don’t want them—but still enjoys the literal fruits of their labor. The other side screams “humanitarian crisis” and “racism”—but takes no meaningful action, even when in power.

In closing, I believe there’s a solution that supports integrity for our border, for our businesses, for our families, and for our neighbors. 

But both sides of the aisle have not been interested in real solutions for a long time—and that begs the question: why? 

What is the benefit of the gray? What is the benefit of a system that is clearly broken and leads to drugs, rape, murder, and chaos?

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/20/2025 - 23:20

Japan Posts Record Population Drop, Shrinking For 14th Year, As Demographic Crisis Deepens

Zero Hedge -

Japan Posts Record Population Drop, Shrinking For 14th Year, As Demographic Crisis Deepens

Japan's already collapsing population just posted its biggest annual drop on record, falling by 898,000 people as of last October compared to a year earlier, Kyodo News reported.

This marked the 14th consecutive year of population decline in the country, according to a government estimate. The previous record drop was 861,000, reported in July 2024.

This was the largest demographic drop since 1968.

Some more details: according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan’s total population was 123,802,000, as of October 1, 2024, down by 550,000 or a 0.44% year-on-year decrease.

The population of only Japanese citizens was 120,296,000, plunging by 898,000, or a 0.74% YoY drop.

The IMF projects that the total population will shrink by a further 3.5 million by the end of the decade.

The natural population decline, calculated by subtracting births from deaths, reached a record high of 890,000, rising for the eighteenth year running. This decline was 437,000 for women and 453,000 for men. 

The silver lining: for the third straight year, there was a net increase in immigration, with 340,000 more people entering than leaving Japan. Which is good news for globalists: if they are so worried where to put all those African and Middle Eastern refugees who have swept across Europe sparking unprecedented blowback against establishment politics, there is always Japan... assuming the locals accept the flood of foreigners.

The data underscore the country's unprecedented demographic crisis amid a rapidly aging society and collapsing birthrate.

Japan's total fertility rate -- the average number of children a woman bears in her lifetime -- fell to its lowest level in 2023 since records began in 1947, while the death/birth ratio at over 2.2, is the highest on record.

The figures, released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, show that only Tokyo and neighboring Saitama prefecture registered population increases.

By age group, the working population, consisting of people aged 15 to 64, stood at 73,728,000, a year-on-year decrease of 224,000, while the population aged 65 or older (red and orange in the figure below) increased by 17,000 to 36,243,000. Those 75 or older (red) increased by 700,000, to 20,777,000, and this age bracket now accounts for 57.3% of those aged 65 or older.

In response to the demographic crisis, the Japanese parliament passed a law in June 2024 aimed at reversing the falling birthrate. Measures under the law include expanded child allowances and enhanced parental leave benefits.

And beginning this month, the city government of Tokyo started offering its employees a four-day workweek, hoping to increase the population and create a healthier work-life balance in a country notorious for long hours at the office.

Officials have warned that the period leading up to 2030 represents a critical window to address the trend. Late marriages, financial insecurity, and limited support for working parents are commonly cited as contributing factors.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/20/2025 - 22:45

Visualizing America's $19 Trillion Consumer Economy In One Chart

Zero Hedge -

Visualizing America's $19 Trillion Consumer Economy In One Chart

To no one’s surprise, the world’s largest economy is also the world’s largest consumer economy.

But how much do Americans collectively spend on the goods and services they need? And what items draw the largest share? 

Visual Capitalist's Pallavi Rao visualizes data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for further analysis.

Where Americans Spend Their Money

America’s consumer class spent nearly $19 trillion on goods and services in 2023.

For context, this was about 68% of the U.S. GDP that year. It was also larger than China’s overall GDP that year as well ($17.8T).

Housing and utilities ($3.3T) and health care ($3.1T) were the top household expenditure categories overall.

Meanwhile, Americans spent the most money on groceries ($1.4T) in the goods category.

In case these numbers seem too big to comprehend, we’ve also broken down household expenditure by year and by month.

Comparative figures may vary as insurance expenditure can sometimes be included within a broader category (housing, transportation), or spun-off on its own.

In a similar vein, another graphic from eight years ago provides some other useful insights: how the share of each category’s expenditure has changed since the 1940s.

While the data isn’t as recent, other trends are visible: health care and housing expenditure have been trending up, clothing and food have been coming down.

The Pros and Cons of the Service Economy

Tellingly, services account for nearly 70% of America’s personal consumption expenditure.

This is matched by the supply side as well: nearly 80% of America’s jobs are in the service sector.

America’s transition away from manufacturing into services—both as producer and consumer—is a story with many episodes and arcs. While it has driven the growth of high-value technology and financial companies, it has also resulted in the loss of blue-collar jobs in America.

This context is particularly relevant in the Trump administration’s second-term.

Broad-based tariffs on imported goods have been declared to reduce trade deficits and to incentivize companies to move their manufacturing back into the country. However, modern manufacturing is built off global supply chains and just-in-time shipping, and economists worry that the disruption will only raise prices for Americans.

Wondering what China’s economy looks like broken down by sector? Check out: China’s $18.6 Trillion Economy in One Chart for a quick overview.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/20/2025 - 21:35

US Housing Market May Finally See Relief As Foreign Buyers, Illegals And Airbnbs Disappear

Zero Hedge -

US Housing Market May Finally See Relief As Foreign Buyers, Illegals And Airbnbs Disappear

One of the most detrimental consequences of the stagflationary surge in the US since 2020 was the meteoric rise in housing prices, from rentals to purchases to mortgages, across all markets.  At present the cost of housing stands at around 30% of the average American's income, with home prices and rentals seeing at least a 60% increase in only 5 years.  In high traffic markets the prices have jumped far higher. 

Inflation in fixed expenses like housing, utilities, gasoline, food, etc. directly reduce disposable income which forces consumers to cut back on retail and recreational purchases.  Higher prices in retail goods can be weathered through savings and spending adaptation, higher prices in fixed expenses is much more difficult to deal with and the results are hard to miss.

There may, however, be a light at the end of the tunnel with new developments suggesting a decline in housing costs is on the way. 

The US Existing Home Inventory is back on the rise after hitting rock bottom in 2022, with a considerable jump occurring in the year (February numbers indicate a 17% jump since 2024).  This is partially because incredibly high prices driving down purchases, but recent events indicate that the inventory trend is going to accelerate in 2025.

Foreign Buyers Exiting The US Market

One of the first actions of the Biden Administration in the face of the housing crisis should have been to enact a moratorium on foreign purchases of US properties.  This didn't happen, of course, but the tides may be shifting in favor of US buyers in the near term/ 

Canadian real estate investors and "Snow Birds" using secondary properties in the US as vacation homes are now reportedly selling off their holdings in light of the Trump Administration's tariff blitz.  America's socialist neighbors to the north are apparently cashing out at record pace.  Oddly, Canadian property owners say they're "afraid of anti-Canadian sentiment" in the US as the reason for dumping their second homes.  The US and foreign media have these people terrified that there's a wave of "Canadian hate" rolling through the American heartland.

This isn't happening, but on the bright side this frees up a considerable number of homes for the US market and will ultimately help to lower prices.  Canadians are the largest foreign property buyers, taking up at least 13% of all home purchases in the US in 2024.  

It's not just Canadians exiting, though. Chinese and European buyers are backing off with some states moving to block property purchases by foreign interests and hysteria over America-first nationalism frightening prospective investors.  Ultimately, this is a net positive for Americans desperate for some relief in a home market that the vast majority of citizens cannot afford.  

Deportations And Falling Rental Prices

It may be true that most illegal aliens don't buy houses, but they certainly take a massive bite out of available rentals.  With an estimate 17 million to 20 million illegals in the US at the time Joe Biden left the White House and a shortage of at least 11 million houses as of 2024, the obvious solution would be to kick out as many migrants as possible to free up the rental market.  

This may have already begun.  Trump border restrictions and changes to immigration policy have been wildly successful in cutting illegal border crossing.  In March, Border Patrol reported a 95% drop in encounters on the southern border, an epic decline from the Biden Administration.  ICE also reports that they have deported at least 100,000 and arrested 13,000 others since Trump took office.  Some skeptics might argue that this is nowhere near enough, but it does not account for the millions of migrants that are self deporting.       

At least 900,000 migrants that entered the US under Biden's CBP One App have been ordered to self deport are or be arrested in the coming months.  US rental prices have been cooling for the past year, but much too slowly.  The drop in housing demand by illegals is expected to create a larger availability pool by the end of 2025, though some leftist media outlets assert that the loss of illegals will cause a decline in home construction and hurt the market instead.

Airbnb Bonanza Fizzles And Opens The Market To 2 million Homes

The Airbnb craze has been dying for at least the past two years.  High property taxes, declining revenues, skyrocketing insurance rates and a drop in tourism means the potential for profits is getting slimmer by the month.  With over 2.4 million homes listed as Airbnb rentals in the US right now, there's a good chance these properties will end up for sale or as long term rentals by the end of 2025. 

The overall trend is deflationary, which is likely to scare a lot of people, but without this is necessary for any return to affordability in housing. Supply must increase in order to offset demand. Unless there are some dramatic changes soon, millions of Americans may be priced out of a home entirely. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/20/2025 - 20:25

ACLU Sues Trump Admin Over Revocation Of International Student Visas

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ACLU Sues Trump Admin Over Revocation Of International Student Visas

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

Four American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) affiliates filed a lawsuit on April 18 asking a federal court to reinstate the legal status of international students who have had their visas revoked.

Multiple ACLU affiliates and the law firm Shaheen & Gordon filed a federal class action lawsuit representing more than 100 foreign students in New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Maine, Rhode Island, and Puerto Rico who they say had their F-1 student immigration status “unlawfully and abruptly terminated with no specified reason as to why.”

The students include several at Brown University and the Rhode Island School of Design, who had their student status revoked in recent weeks. The lawsuit asks the court to reinstate their F-1 student status, which would allow them to continue their studies.

“International students are a vital community in our state’s universities, and no administration should be allowed to circumvent the law to unilaterally strip students of status, disrupt their studies, and put them at risk of deportation,” Gilles Bissonnette, legal director of the ACLU of New Hampshire, said in a statement.

Several students have already sued, arguing they were denied due process. In New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Montana, federal judges have granted temporary restraining orders to shield the students from deportation.

According to the April 18 lawsuit, which was filed in New Hampshire federal court, the affected students said they were not notified before their F-1 student statuses were canceled, opening them up to deportation and preventing them from finishing their studies.

The complaint states that one of the students, Manikanta Pasula of India, was close to finishing his master’s in computer science at New Hampshire’s Rivier University and was working to apply for an international student work program that would allow him to stay in the United States.

Another student, Hangrui Zhang of China, was in a Ph.D. program in electronic and computer science at Worcester Polytechnic Institute in Massachusetts, and says he now can no longer work as a research assistant, his only income source, the complaint said.

The lawyers representing the students said the government did not give the required advance notice, informing the foreign students that their legal status would be terminated.

On March 27, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the State Department may have revoked more than 300 visas so far.

“Every time I find one of these lunatics, I take away their visa,” Rubio said. 

He said the reason is ”because you want to participate in movements that are involved in doing things like vandalizing universities, harassing students, taking over buildings, creating a ruckus, we’re not going to give you a visa.”

Rubio said he is canceling visas for those who were acting in opposition to national interests, such as those who had protested Israel and its military action in Gaza or others facing criminal charges.

One high-profile case included former Columbia University graduate student and activist Mahmoud Khalil, who was slated for deportation after leading several pro-Palestinian protests on campus.

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Inflation Risk Is Subsiding Rapidly

Zero Hedge -

Inflation Risk Is Subsiding Rapidly

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Inflation risk has been a significant topic of discussion in the mainstream media for the last few years. Such is unsurprising given that inflation spiked following the pandemic in 2020 as consumer spending (demand) was shot into overdrive from stimulus payments and production (supply) was shuttered. To understand why that occurred, we need to revisit “Economics 101.”

“In economics, inflation is a general increase in the prices of goods and services. Changes in inflation are a function of fluctuations in actual demand for goods and services (also known as demand shocks, including changes in fiscal or monetary policy or recession), changes in available supplies such as during energy crises (also known as supply shocks), or changes in inflation expectations, which may be self-fulfilling. Note that supply and demand are key facets of the inflation equation.

Basic economics states prices will be set at a level where the supply of goods or services meets consumer demand.”

The economic illustration shows this basic principle taught in every “Econ 101” class. As noted, in 2020, inflation was the consequence of restricting supply and massively increasing demand.

That massive surge in stimulus sent directly to households resulted in an unprecedented spike in “savings,” creating artificial demand. As shown, the “pig in the python” effect is evident. Over the next two years, that “bulge” of excess liquidity has reverted to the previous growth trend. Given that economic growth lags behind the reversion in savings by about 12 months, we should continue to see economic growth slow into 2025. Notably, the “lag effect” is critical to the “inflation risk” thesis.

Understanding that inflation is solely a function of supply and demand, the ongoing reversal of monetary liquidity is continuing to erode economic activity. Notably, what caused the inflation spike post-2020 was not an increase in the debt or the Federal Reserve but rather the temporary increase in the money supply caused by sending checks to households. Therefore, the inflation risk will continue to subside unless the government passes a new infrastructure spending bill of massive proportions or sends another stimulus to households.

“But Lance, tariffs are inflationary.”

They aren’t for two reasons, and it all starts with consumer confidence.

Consumer Is The Key To Inflation Risk

I understand the basic assumption that if you impose a tax on a product, good, or service, then the “cost” of that product, good, or service will increase, hence the inflation risk. While that is perfectly logical, it excludes two crucial factors: 1) Only producers pay the “tax” from tariffs, and 2) we measure inflation (in terms of CPI) from the consumer side of the equation.

In “Tariffs Aren’t An Inflation Risk,” we discussed tariffs’ impact on the production side of the equation.

“Post-pandemic demand surges, supply chain disruptions, and massive fiscal and monetary interventions supported those elevated margins. As evidenced by the chart below, the correlation between economic growth rates and corporate profits is high. Note that outliers of the correlation are historically related to events such as the “Financial Crisis” and post-recession economic recoveries.”

Corporations react to cost increases in their business (i.e., wages, benefits, commodities, utilities, etc.), which must be factored into the selling price to maintain profitability. Crucially, corporations can only pass on higher input costs to consumers if demand remains higher than the available supply of those goods or services. In 2020 and 2021, corporations could pass on most of the inflationary increase to consumers as they were willing to spend the Government’s money. However, as excess savings run out, inflation declines as consumers decrease spending; corporate profits weaken as the ability to pass on higher input costs to customers fades. As shown, as inflation declines, the rate of change in corporate profits also weakens.”

Read that bolded sentence again.

When discussing inflation risk, consumer activity drives inflationary pulses in the economy. If we use a two-year average of corporate profits minus inflation, we can visualize that impact. As shown, inflationary increases, like tariffs, are only inflationary in the economy if they can be passed onto the consumer. Inflation surged in 2020 as corporations could pass on the bulk of the cost increases to consumers flush with cash. Today, to consumers. Today, inflation is declining due to declining demand. As such, the percentage of cost increases corporations must absorb is increasing, which reduces corporate profitability but shows up in the economy as slowing inflation.

Here is the crucial point:

“Corporations don’t create inflation. They merely react to changes in demand and adjust pricing and supply to maintain profitability. When the consumer slows down, corporations cut prices to reduce supply.”

As we should expect, consumer actions, which is how we measure inflation through the consumer price index (CPI), drive inflation risk. Consumer confidence is the key to understanding whether inflation risk is present in the economy.

Consumers Lack Confidence

Despite all the commentary about tariff-related inflation risk, inflation is hard to achieve if consumers are unwilling or, more importantly, unable to pay higher prices. As noted in this past week’s commentary, “Consumers Are Tapping Out,” consumers show signs of deep financial stress.

“At the heart of the problem is the collapse of household balance sheets in the lower-income and middle-income brackets. These groups have depleted the excess savings accumulated during the pandemic and are turning to high-interest borrowing to bridge the gap. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that the share of active credit card accounts making only minimum payments surged to 10.75% in Q3 2024—a record high. This statistic isn’t just a warning about credit health; it points to widespread cash flow stress.

Furthermore, consumer confidence in finding employment continues to erode as the economy slows. Given that employment creates income for consumption, it is difficult to expand consumption (demand) if consumers do not have a job, fear losing their jobs, or wage growth stagnates.

We can investigate this further by examining Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which comprise nearly 70% of the economic equation. Historically, when consumer confidence is declining, consumption also slows.

As such, it is unsurprising that inflation is tied to consumer confidence. As consumer confidence declines, the demand for goods and services also declines. The reduction in economic activity shows up in the current inflation risks.

Conclusion

Lastly, Consumer stress isn’t limited to anecdotal indicators—it shows up in corporate earnings and executive commentary. During the company’s earnings call, Doug McMillon, CEO of Walmart, stated that many customers are under “budget pressure.” They also exhibit “stressed behaviors,” including spending reductions across general merchandise. Specifically, he warned that “For many customers, the money runs out before the month does.”

Similarly, Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos painted an equally concerning picture. He described his customers as “struggling more than ever before. Todd added that some are now forgoing non-discretionary itemslike medication or hygiene productsto afford groceries and fuel. He said, “These customers are making trade-offs we haven’t seen in years.” Concurring with that warning was Jane Fraser, CEO of Citigroup. She observed that consumers are “becoming more cautious” and focusing spending on smaller, lower-cost purchases. While this signals a growing defensive posture, often associated with recessionary conditions, they are also deflationary. When consumer behavior shifts en masse from aspirational to survival-based, the ripple effects are inevitable.

The bottom line is that inflation risks are extremely muted given the rapidly slowing economic backdrop and disruption in the stock and bond markets, which also impact consumer confidence. Could that change? Yes, but such a change would require a reinstatement of stimulus checks, a surge in Government spending, and the Federal Reserve increasing monetary policy. For now, none of those are available.

The most significant risk to the economy is not the return of inflation risks but rather the collapse in consumer confidence that leads to a recession.

We may have that data showing up sooner than later.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/20/2025 - 18:40

Sunday Night Futures

Calculated Risk -

Weekend:
Schedule for Week of April 20, 2025

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 20 and DOW futures are down 128 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $64.68 per barrel and Brent at $67.96 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $84, and Brent was at $88 - so WTI oil prices are down about 23% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.12 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.66 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.54 year-over-year.

China Tests Novel Non-Nuclear Hydrogen Bomb - Generates Intense Fireball

Zero Hedge -

China Tests Novel Non-Nuclear Hydrogen Bomb - Generates Intense Fireball

Chinese scientists successfully detonated a powerful and innovative non-nuclear hydrogen-based bomb that produced an enduring, intensely-hot fireball, the South China Morning Post reported on Sunday, citing a research paper describing the experiment. 

The new technology centers on the use of magnesium hydride (MgH2), a white or silvery crystalline powder that's capable of storing an outsize amount of hydrogen. The material and its extraordinary solid-state storage potential originally piqued scientists' interest for a peaceful purpose: transporting hydrogen to off-grid locations for use generating clean energy and heat by way of fuel cells. Magnesium hydride's storage capacity is far superior to pressurized tanks, SCMP explains. The material is also of interest to scientists in the field of spacecraft propulsion

Naturally, scientists recognized that densely-packed hydrogen offers extraordinary explosive potential, and set out to build explosive devices to measure the destructive force. China's pioneering evaluation started small, with a test bomb weighing just 4.4 pounds (2kg). The resulting fireball impressed researchers, producing heat exceeding 1,832 degrees Fahrenheit (1,000 Celsius). More importantly, the fireball lasted more than two seconds, which is 15 times longer than a comparably-scaled TNT explosion. No nuclear materials were involved.  

A Chinese magnesium hydride test-bomb awaits detonation (705 Research Institute via South China Morning Post)

The test bomb was produced by the the 705 Research Institute, a subsidiary operation of the China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC). Among its many scientific endeavors, the 705 Research Institute is a leading force in China's development of underwater weapon systems. However, the bomb test was conducted on land and SCMP's summary of the paper didn't address any naval-kinetic-warfare implications; however, magnesium hydride is being eyed for possible use in submarine fuel cells. The peer-reviewed paper on the innovative bomb appeared in the Chinese-language Journal of Projectiles, Rockets, Missiles and Guidance. 

“Hydrogen gas explosions ignite with minimal ignition energy, have a broad explosion range, and unleash flames that race outward rapidly while spreading widely,” the research team in a peer-reviewed paper published by the Chinese-language Journal of Projectiles, Rockets, Missiles and Guidance. “This combination allows precise control over blast intensity, easily achieving uniform destruction of targets across vast areas.” In addition to that use, the 705 Research Institute's scientists also evaluated the bomb's potential use in confined attacks on high-value targets.  

The fireball from China's new magnesium hydride bomb endured 15 times longer than a comparable TNT explosion, researchers say (705 Research Institute via South China Morning Post)

Producing magnesium hydride is no easy feat, as the process of binding of hydrogen and magnesium necessitates high pressures and high temperatures. If air manages to infiltrate the production chamber, the facility and its workers could be incinerated in the blink of an eye. Given the demands, it can take a laboratory a full day just to generate a few grams. 

Now, however, China is shifting magnesium hydride production from the micro-scale of laboratories to the industrial scale of a factory in the Shaanxi province in the country's northwest. Aiming to pump out a jaw-dropping 150 tons per year, the plant is the work of the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics. It completed its one-year pilot phase on January 10. 

China's new plant in Shaanxi province aims to produce 150 tons of magnesium hydride per year (CUI Yajun and CAO Hujun via Chinese Academy of Sciences)

For our more science-oriented ZeroHedge readers, here are more details on China's magnesium hydride bomb test: 

Under constrained detonation, peak overpressure reached 428.43 kilopascals at two metres (6ft 7in) from the bomb – about 40 per cent of TNT’s blast force, but with a far greater heat projection range... 

The chain reaction begins when detonation shock waves fracture magnesium hydride into micron-scale particles, exposing fresh surfaces, according to the study. Thermal decomposition rapidly releases hydrogen gas, which mixes with ambient air. Upon reaching the lower explosive limit, the mixture ignites, triggering exothermic combustion.This liberated heat further propagates magnesium hydride decomposition, creating a self-sustaining loop until fuel exhaustion – a synergistic cascading of mechanical fracturing, hydrogen release, and thermal feedback -- SCMP

How long until our military-industrial complex is pointing to the Chinese magnesium-hydride menace to help justify Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth's fever dreams of a trillion-dollar military budget?

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Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back. Tyler Durden Sun, 04/20/2025 - 18:05

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