Individual Economists

Trump To Buy Tiny 1 Million Barrels For SPR As China Unleashes Record Oil Stockpiling Spree

Zero Hedge -

Trump To Buy Tiny 1 Million Barrels For SPR As China Unleashes Record Oil Stockpiling Spree

Badly beating down oil jumped, if only briefly, on a Bloomberg report that the Trump administration plans to buy 1 million barrels for the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, taking advantage of low oil prices to begin filing the depleted stockpile.

The Energy Department intends to announce Tuesday that it’s seeking oil for delivery in December and January, using a portion of the $171 million from President Donald Trump’s signature tax and spending law that provided for crude purchases, according to an agency official.

West Texas Intermediate, which is down about 30% since its peak in mid-January and traded at about $58 a barrel on Tuesday, near the lowest since 2021, staged a modest bounce, only to sink after the kneejerk reaction was processed. 

Trump has vowed to refill the oil reserve, which has a maximum capacity of about 700 million barrels. It currently has about 408 million barrels, but the administration has limited funds to buy more. Unfortunately just 1 million here and there won't do anything in the grand scheme of things; meanwhile China has been aggressively adding millions of barrels every month to its SPR, and according to many analysts has been the main reason preventing far lower oil prices. Here is Reuters on the topic:

China is building oil reserve sites at a rapid clip as part of a campaign to boost crude stockpiles that increased in urgency after Russia's Ukraine invasion upended global energy flows and has accelerated this year, according to public data, traders and industry experts.

State oil companies including Sinopec and CNOOC will add at least 169 million barrels of storage across 11 sites during 2025 and 2026, according to public sources including domestic news reports, government reports and company websites.

Of that, 37 million barrels of capacity has been built, the sources show. Once completed, the new sites will be able to store two weeks of China's net crude imports, according to Reuters calculations based on Chinese trade data, a significant volume as China is by far the world's biggest oil importer.

Beijing's reserve-building - S&P Global Commodity Insight last month estimated China had stockpiled an average of 530,000 barrels per day thus far in 2025 - is soaking up surplus global supply and supporting prices under pressure as the OPEC+ producers group winds down production cuts. Traders and consultancies say they expect the stockpiling, fuelled by prices recently below $70 per barrel, to continue at least through the first quarter of 2026.

The reserve’s levels were sharply reduced under President Autopen, when gasoline prices spiked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The drawdown of some 180 million barrels in 2022 cost about $280 million and delayed maintenance, according to the Energy Department.

Bids for the Energy Department’s 1 million barrel solicitation for delivery to the Bayou Choctaw site are due no later than 11:00 a.m. CT on Oct. 28, the official said. The purchases will be through a spot-price-indexed contract.

*  *  * Grab a SOLAR GENERATOR (comparable to Jackery Explorer 1000 Pro / Yeti 1000X)

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 13:11

Stocks Dumped On Trump China Comments

Zero Hedge -

Stocks Dumped On Trump China Comments

With stocks back near record highs (having recovered quickly from their last Trump-driven plunge), it appears the hubris of market strength rubbed off again on the President as he dropped the following tape-bombs once again raising the rhetoric on any possible trade deal with China:

  • *TRUMP: MAYBE MEETING WON'T HAPPEN WITH XI

  • *TRUMP: I WANT XI TO HAVE A GOOD DEAL FOR CHINA

  • *TRUMP: EXPECT TO MAKE GOOD DEAL WITH XI

  • *TRUMP: WE BUILT CHINA'S MILITARY WITH ALL MONEY WE LOST

Sending stocks tumbling, sending Nasdaq into the red...

Interestingly, the comments came just as Nasdaq reached back to unchanged since the President's last tweet-driven plunge...

Gold rallied a little while bitcoin fell on the news...

What kind of drawdown will we need this time to pressure the TACO trade move to come back?

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 12:57

Europe, Ukraine Discussing 12-Point Plan To End War; Trump-Putin Meeting 'Not Imminent'

Zero Hedge -

Europe, Ukraine Discussing 12-Point Plan To End War; Trump-Putin Meeting 'Not Imminent'

Update (1232ET): Europe and the UK are discussing a 12-point plan to end the Russia-Ukraine warBloomberg reports. 

  • The war would end along current battle lines
  • Trump administration 'Peace Board' would oversee
  • Ukraine would receive security guarantees and reconstruction funds
  • Sanctions on Russia would be gradually lifted
  • Russia has to contribute to Ukraine reconstruction funds
  • 'No clear date' set for meeting between Trump and Putin 

The plan would end the war along current battle lines - a counter to Vladimir Putin's demand that Kiev surrender more territory in return for a peace deal. 

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska in August.Photographer: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

If adopted, the Trump administration would oversee implementation of the proposed plan, according to people familiar with the discussions. Assuming the ceasefire holds and both sides commit to halting further advances, there would be a prisoner exchange, as well as 'all deported children' (what?), while Ukraine would receive security guarantees and reconstruction funds, along with a pathway to rapidly join the European Union

In exchange, sanctions on Russia would be gradually lifted, and around $300 billion in frozen central bank reserves would be returned to Moscow - if the Kremlin agrees to contribute to Ukraine's post-war reconstruction.

Meanwhile, as noted below the Kremlin pushed back against CNN claims that a Trump-Putin meeting had been postponed, but acknowledged that no date has been set.

"We cannot postpone what has not been agreed upon," said Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov in a statement to TASS state news early Tuesday, adding "Everything is in progress, internal work is ongoing. As new information becomes available, we will keep you informed." 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov echoed Ryabkov regarding the Trump-Putin summit in Budapest, saying "You can’t postpone something that hasn’t been agreed upon." 

Developing...

*  *  *

The Kremlin on Tuesday has said that while its stance since Presidents Putin and Trump met in Alaska in August has remain unchanged, European countries are busy seeking to thwart peace efforts.

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at a briefing that the European allies are actively encouraging Kiev to keep pursuing a solution militarily. "Right now, Europeans are not really focused on peace and are doing little to achieve it," he said.

Via Associated Press

Peskov also cited reports from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service that European NATO members are "continuing extensive preparations for a potential armed conflict with Russia," according to TASS.

In parallel statements Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia's special military operation "is fulfilling its goals" and that "there is no doubt that it will conclude successfully."

He then batted down President Zelensky's current push to freeze the conflict before peace talks can be held. Moscow has long said it is not willing to do a temporary truce, seeing in this a Ukrainian ploy to regroup and rearm before a comprehensive settlement can be achieved.

"An immediate ceasefire, the talk of which has suddenly reappeared, would mean only that a large part of Ukraine remains under the Nazi regime’s control, while the need is to resolve the issue at its core and address its underlying causes," Lavrov stressed.

Zelensky came off his Friday White House meeting with Trump saying that the US President is in agreement with him on this point.

But Lavrov has countered, "I would like to officially stress that Russia has not altered its stance compared to the understandings reached during the Putin-Trump extended talks in Alaska."

He too laid much blame on the Europeans for seeking to sabotage talks, as a meeting is under preparation to be hosted in Budapest between Trump and Putin. Lavrov continued:

The desire of the Kiev regime’s "European patrons" to insist on a ceasefire in exchange for a comprehensive settlement of the Ukrainian conflict runs counter to the agreements reached in Alaska: "This approach contradicts what Presidents Trump and Putin agreed upon in Anchorage, which was to focus on the root causes."

At the moment, President Trump is being widely accused in mainstream media of essentially selling out the Ukrainians and siding with Putin related to potential future terms of a peace settlement:

Behind the scenes, Trump had pushed Zelenskyy to give up swaths of territory to Russia, two people briefed on the discussion told Reuters. “Let it be cut the way it is,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday. “It’s cut up right now,” he said, adding that you can “leave it the way it is right now”.

“They can negotiate something later on down the line,” he said. But for now, both sides of the conflict should “stop at the battle line – go home, stop fighting, stop killing people”.

This would indeed give Russia effective control of some 20% or a little more of Ukraine, and the idea is that the battlelines would be 'frozen' as a more comprehensive deal is hammered out.

Meanwhile MSM is piling on too, with several negative reports on efforts to get Putin and Trump at the table again in Budapest:

"It was also not immediately clear what impact the tabling of the pre-meeting between Lavrov and Rubio would ultimately have on the anticipated Trump-Putin summit in Budapest, Hungary." —CNN

It could be that Trump is finally getting realistic about the conflict - the Russians are not going to pack up and leave the battle lines, and territorial concessions are what will end the war, whether Kiev likes it or not.

Russia seems to be trying to be careful to play nice with Trump and not offend him at this sensitive juncture of Moscow-Washington bilateral talks, while laying all the blame for any stall in negotiations on the more hawkish Europeans.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 12:33

Embarrassment Of Riches, Poverty Of Takes

Zero Hedge -

Embarrassment Of Riches, Poverty Of Takes

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Today has an embarrassment of riches in news; and a poverty of takes of how it all links together.

Bloomberg claims the ‘’Widow-Maker’ Trade Becomes World Beater as Japanese Bonds Sink’. The 2025 trend in JGB yields, if now off recent highs, shows a generational shift taking place, which could accelerate following the emergence of Takaichi as PM.

  • Similar worries remain from the US to “Où sont my crown jewels?” France to EM, even if yields moved lower yesterday on safe-haven bids as the global internet wobbled.

After Trump told President Zelenskyy to make a peace deal or be “destroyed” by Russia, which is close to calling up another 2m men to fight, Zelenskyy tried to paint their meeting as “positive.” The EU is still seeking to secure the use of Russian assets for Ukraine and more sanctions on Moscow: yet the White House is stalling a G7 plan for the former and the Senate just paused its Russia Sanctions Bill.

  • Again, the US is aiming for a Noxin (reverse Nixon) deal or a war freeze: Europe wants more, but doesn’t seem willing to pay up, and just agreed to phase out Russian oil purchases by January 2028, meaning it will fund attacks on Ukraine for another two years.

Politico also notes ‘Here comes the EU’s first anti-far-right European Council’, arguing “Housing, social media regulation, migration, and defence spending are all being used by the political mainstream to curb the march of populism” - but doesn’t that all sound populist? The same press also says ‘New EU members could join without full voting rights’: really?

  • Europe’s internal flux matches its immediate external environment – it’s not business as usual.

In the Middle East, Iran's Khamenei rejected a Trump offer of talks, again, and denied that the US had destroyed Iranian nuclear capabilities. Is that playing with fire on top of a lot of oil? Trump also floated a renewal of Gaza fighting, but said Hams still has chance to “behave”, as and VP Vance heads to Israel today as part of efforts to shore up the ceasefire.

  • Overall, momentum continues to build towards a new Middle East where oil stays firmly priced in US dollars.

In LatAm, Argentina’s peso weakened despite the US officially agreeing a $20bn swapline as the Wall Street Journal reported ‘US Banks Are Hunting for Collateral to Back $20bn Argentina Bailout’ (WSJ) such as “assets or guarantees from the US that would back a private-sector loan to support Argentine President Javier Milei” – recall Argentine elections are this Sunday; Bolivia elected centrist Rodrigo Paz as president, ending decades of socialist rule, and restarting relations with the US after 20 years; ‘Trump doubles down on Colombia crackdown, calls Petro ‘lunatic,’ vows to end all US payments over drugs’, as Fox news put it, with a new, higher US tariff rate on Colombia due imminently; and another Venezuelan narco-boat was hit by the Pentagon.

  • In short, there’s more Monroe than in ‘Some Like it Hot’ – and things could get hot as the US reasserts its role in the Western hemisphere while pushing Chinese, Russia, and Iranian influence out.

In the Asia-Pacific, Trump backed the AUKUS defence deal and will push to expedite nuclear sub deliveries. The US Navy Secretary wants to clear up some of the “ambiguity”, so AUKUS is a “win-win for everybody.” In parallel, ‘‘We’ll have so much’: Trump taunts China with Albanese rare earths deal’ (AFR), as the White House struck a supply deal and claimed Australia will invest $1 trillion in the US by 2035 via its superfunds.

  • Is there any need for discussion on whose side Oz has chosen, geopolitically? However, one wonders if this will soon involve it spending 5% of GDP on defence, and/or necessitate a Fed swapline, as South Korea has floated?

Trump expects to discuss Taiwan when he meets Xi, and while he predicts a trade deal, he made clear the extra 100% China tariff will hit if Beijing won’t buy US soybeans and sell it rare earths… exports of which just slumped in data released yesterday. USTR Greer also stated China is trying to pressure foreign firms from investing in the US to disrupt supply chains, mentioning shipbuilding in particular, but “Intimidation won’t stop us from rebuilding.” Indeed, as the US Supreme Court was told ‘Trump tariffs are an illegal $3 trillion tax’, the New York Times notes ‘Hundreds of Korean Workers Were Detained by ICE. Hyundai is Not Deterred’, and that new factories really are springing up, while the White House said the $100,000 H-1B visa fee will be paid by applicants living abroad.

  • Is this “because markets” messaging that screams ‘trade deal’?

The Financial Times meanwhile takes a strong editorial stance today (‘The boardroom bet on Trump’s industrial policy’) and argues “CEOs would be wise to avoid staking too much on the US president’s pet projects” because Biden’s IRA was reversed and China is seeing deflation due to too much production – as if that’s a current US problem!

On the other hand, China’s key fourth plenum continues. The Xinhua media release note: "Standing at a new historical starting point, let us unite more closely around the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, comprehensively implement Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, inspire a spirit of striving for every minute and never slacking off, and gather the tremendous strength of unity and courage to forge ahead. We will work towards a blueprint that will be followed through to the end, generation after generation..."

  • Is this “because markets” messaging that screams ‘trade deal’?

Also of note after yesterday’s Chinese GDP data, the South China Morning Post yesterday asked: “As China drafts its next 5-year plan, is GDP still the magic number?” where “With the fourth plenum set to outline China’s long-term plans, analysts consider more benchmarks than GDP for ‘high-quality development’ era”. When even China is starting to ask, ‘What is GDP *for*?’ rather than just “4.9% or 5%?”, it underlines how out-of-the-loop most “because markets” Western thinking and analysis still is.

Relatedly, the SCMP also says ‘China’s AI plan offers citizens ‘infinite hope’ with robot companions and kids by 2035’ - “But a Chinese expert warns it could lead to mass unemployment, polarisation, reduction in marriage rates and ‘erosion of family ethics’”. The West doesn’t seem to be offering its citizens much hope in some eyes, let alone ‘infinite’, and it can’t even agree on how to use AI and industrial robots in its factories yet, let alone in relationships.

  • Who does this suggest is ahead, and behind. in this critical geoeconomic area? And beyond ‘buy all the things!’ aiming for an embarrassment of riches, is this disruptive trend inflationary or deflationary, or both – and what do we do about changes to society on this scale at this kind of speed? We have an absolute poverty of takes on this in particular.
Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 12:25

Lawler: Early Read on September Existing Home Sales, and Update on MBS Yields and Spreads

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on September Existing Home Sales, and Update on MBS Yields and Spreads

A brief excerpt:
From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million in September, unchanged from August’s preliminary pace (which looked too high relative to state and local realtor data) and up 2.6% last September’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a larger YOY % increase, reflecting this September’s higher business day count relative to last September’s.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 2.2% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release September Existing Home sales on Thursday, October 23rd at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for the NAR to report sales of 4.06 million SAAR. Last year, the NAR reported sales in September 2024 at 3.90 million SAAR.
There is also an update on MBS Yields and Spreads in the article.

Amazon's Reputation At Risk After 15 Hours Of Disruptions; May Spark Customer Demand For 'Cloud Diversification'

Zero Hedge -

Amazon's Reputation At Risk After 15 Hours Of Disruptions; May Spark Customer Demand For 'Cloud Diversification'

What many Americans discovered early Monday morning is that nothing online is guaranteed, not even the biggest websites, apps, or messaging services, after a massive outage in Amazon Web Services' (AWS) U.S. East 1 region in Northern Virginia triggered 15 hours of internet chaos. The disruption has reignited fears about overreliance on a single cloud provider and is expected to push major companies toward spreading their infrastructure risk across multiple clouds rather than relying on just one.

Bloomberg reports that yesterday's AWS outage in the U.S. East 1 region was one of the company's worst disruptions since 2021. The incident could prompt companies to diversify their cloud infrastructure risk, potentially slowing AWS' growth while intensifying competition from Microsoft and Google.

"The outage will likely fuel customers wanting to spread their infrastructure between multiple clouds, which could be a positive for smaller vendors like Google," Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Anurag Rana wrote in a note, adding that it's unlikely to result in any meaningful market share loss for Amazon due to the difficulty of shifting workloads between clouds and industrywide capacity constraints.

The breakdown originated in AWS's Northern Virginia region, its largest data center cluster, when a malfunction in a digital directory for a core database service triggered cascading failures across other subsystems, resulting in online disruptions for highly-trafficked platforms such as Venmo, Robinhood, Zoom, Salesforce, Snowflake, and even Amazon's own Alexa, Prime, and Ring services. There were even reports of Amazon delivery disruptions (read here).

AWS engineers managed to restore data center operations in the Northern Virginia region to "normal" status by late Monday evening, about 15 hours after the problem first emerged. This outage echoes a 2021 incident that disrupted Netflix, Disney, and other global platforms.

If the AWS outage left you frustrated, imagine the chaos when China moves on Taiwan or disrupts critical infrastructure amid the ongoing Salt Typhoon and/or unleashes its full cyber arsenal against the U.S. Let's hope the trade war is resolved soon, because a nation suffering from "TikTok brain rot" might not survive a week without its social media.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 12:05

NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased in October, Negative territory for 18 consecutive months

Calculated Risk -

Catching up ...
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 37, up from 32 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Amid Market Challenges, Builder Expectations Rise in October
Even as builders continue to grapple with market and macroeconomic uncertainty, sentiment levels posted a solid gain in October as future sales expectations surpassed the 50-point breakeven mark for the first time since last January.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 37 in October, up five points from September and the highest reading since April, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.

“While recent declines for mortgage rates are an encouraging sign for affordability conditions, the market remains challenging,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from Lexington, N.C. “The housing market has some areas with firm demand, including smaller builders shifting to remodeling and ongoing solid conditions for the luxury market. However, most home buyers are still on the sidelines, waiting for mortgage rates to move lower.”

“The HMI gain in October is a positive signal for 2026 as our forecast is for single-family housing starts to gain ground next year,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell from just above 6.5% at the start of September to 6.3% in early October. Combined with anticipated further easing by the Fed, builders expect a slightly improving sales environment, albeit one in which persistent supply-side cost factors remain a challenge.”

With the government shutdown continuing and an expectation of no Census housing construction data for September being published this week, Dietz noted the following: “Based on modeling of historical data, the October increase for the HMI suggests an approximate 3% increase for the September single-family permit data on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis. Our model suggests a 2% to 4% range for the increase based on the statistical relationship.”

In a sign of ongoing challenges for the housing market, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 38% of builders reported cutting prices in October. This share has alternated between 37% and 39% since June. Meanwhile, the average price reduction rose to 6% in October after averaging 5% for several months previously. The last time builders reduced prices by 6% was a year ago in October 2024. The use of sales incentives was 65% in October, unchanged from September.
...
All the HMI subindices rose in October. The component measuring current sales conditions increased four points to 38, the index gauging future sales jumped nine points to 54 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a four-point gain to 25.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose two points to 46, the Midwest was unchanged at 42, the South increased two points to 31 and the West gained two points to 28.
emphasis added
NAHB HMI Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

The index has been below 50 for eighteen consecutive months.

Reddit Army Squeezes Beyond Meat A Week After Debt-Swap Dilution Deal

Zero Hedge -

Reddit Army Squeezes Beyond Meat A Week After Debt-Swap Dilution Deal

Fake food company Beyond Meat, once endlessly promoted by globalist corporate media trying to convince the nation that cow farts are bad and fake meat is good, has been locked in a near five-year bear market. It seems that Redditors and the company's press release are squeezing shares higher. However, a recent debt swap for equity will substantially dilute shareholders. We've seen this story before, and it never ends well.

News this morning that Beyond Meat plans to expand its fake food products to over 2,000 Walmart stores nationwide sent shares up 60% in premarket trading. The surge is likely due to a combination of the Reddit army of day traders catching on that hedge funds have been heavily shorting the stock.

Beyond Meat's latest short interest data show that 54% of the company's publicly available shares are short, or about 39.59 million shares. Based on the average daily volume of around 9 million shares traded per day, it would take 4.44 days for shorts to cover.

Meanwhile, day traders on Reddit's WallStreetBets page are all about BYND...

Hmm.

Caveat emptor:

The surge comes one week after nearly all creditors agreed to a debt-swap deal that massively dilutes equity shareholders

BYND wrote in a recent press release (read report) that 96.92% of holders of its 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 agreed to participate in the debt-equity swap offer, clearing the 85% threshold required for the deal to proceed. 

Under the terms, BYND will issue up to $202.5 million of new 7% Convertible Senior Secured Second Lien PIK Toggle Notes due 2030 and up to 326.2 million new shares of common stock. The exchange aims to reduce leverage and extend debt maturities. 

And now you understand why there's a squeeze and pump. 

Liquidity is needed. Reddit kids are that liquidity. Never ends well. 

*  *  * Don't Drink Carcinogens

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 10:35

Eos Energy Shares Surge After Announcing New $75 Million Facility In Pennsylvania

Zero Hedge -

Eos Energy Shares Surge After Announcing New $75 Million Facility In Pennsylvania

Shares of Eos Energy Enterprises surged more than 20% this morning (before pulling back into the cash equity open) after the company announced a $75 million battery manufacturing facility in Pennsylvania to supply Talen Energy Corp. and help meet the state’s fast-growing data center power demand.

The new plant, slated to open in mid-2026, will produce two gigawatt-hours of batteries, effectively doubling Eos’s production capacity in the Pittsburgh region, according to Bloomberg

“The energy to be generated is enough to power about 1.5 million homes for an hour,” said CEO Joe Mastrangelo, who added that the expansion positions Eos to scale up to as much as eight gigawatt-hours in the future.

Bloomberg writes that the batteries will help Talen optimize output from its existing assets — including the Susquehanna nuclear plant and nearby fossil-fuel generators — which partially supply an Amazon data center in the state. Pennsylvania is supporting the project with a $24 million incentive package to promote local clean-energy manufacturing.

Mastrangelo emphasized that Eos’s zinc-based batteries will play a vital role in stabilizing the grid as renewable energy generation becomes more variable, enabling a steadier and more reliable power supply for the region’s growing data infrastructure.

A key player behind that expansion is Tetra Technologies (TTI), one of Eos’s largest suppliers and strategic partners. Tetra provides high-purity zinc-bromide electrolyte, a critical component of Eos’s zinc-based energy storage systems, and is contracted to supply at least 75% of Eos’s total electrolyte demand for its Eos Z3 energy storage cube.

“TETRA is a proven global fluid solution provider… as we scale, we need supply chain partners that can help us achieve growth, reduce cost, and improve overall performance of our battery,” Mastrangelo said when the partnership was extended in early 2024. The collaboration also strengthens a domestic U.S. supply chain for Eos’s American-made product.

Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc., founded in 2008 and based in Edison, New Jersey, designs and manufactures zinc-based energy storage systems— including its Znyth and Z3 battery technologies—offering utilities, power producers, and commercial customers a lithium-free alternative for 3- to 12-hour applications, supported by battery management, project services, and long-term maintenance solutions.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 09:40

GM Spikes 11% After Raising Outlook On Trump Tariff Relief, Strong Truck Demand

Zero Hedge -

GM Spikes 11% After Raising Outlook On Trump Tariff Relief, Strong Truck Demand

GM shares are trading up about 11% this morning after the automaker delivered stronger-than-expected third-quarter results and raised its 2025 outlook. The company reported adjusted EPS of $2.80 versus $2.31 expected and revenue of $48.59 billion versus $45.27 billion.

CEO Mary Barra said: “Thanks to the collective efforts of our team, and our compelling vehicle portfolio, GM delivered another very good quarter of earnings and free cash flow… we are raising our full-year guidance, underscoring our confidence in the company’s trajectory.”

GM now expects $12–$13 billion in adjusted EBIT and $9.75–$10.50 in adjusted EPS for the year, both above prior forecasts. The company also lowered its expected tariff impact to between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion, down from $4–$5 billion previously.

Barra thanked President Trump for “the important tariff updates” announced last week, which included new levies on imported trucks and parts as well as an offset for U.S.-made vehicles.

Despite EV-related headwinds—only about 40% of GM’s electric models are profitable on a production basis—CFO Paul Jacobson reaffirmed the company’s long-term commitment to electrification, saying, “We continue to believe there is a strong future for electric vehicles.” Gains in China, international markets, and GM Financial helped offset weaker North American margins, as GM focuses on restoring its regional profitability to the 8–10% range.

GM’s stronger outlook also reflects booming demand for its high-margin pickups and SUVs, which delivered the company’s best year-to-date truck and Escalade sales since 2018 and 2007, respectively, and record results for the GMC brand, according to Bloomberg. CEO Mary Barra highlighted that GM is “very well positioned as we invest to increase our already significant domestic sourcing and manufacturing footprint,” thanking President Trump for extending tariff discounts through 2030.

Despite near-term EV challenges, GM’s traditional lineup continues to drive profits, aided by modest price increases in North America and improved performance abroad. The company’s China operations returned to profitability, earning $80 million in the quarter after losses last year. CFO Paul Jacobson said GM’s long-term focus remains on cost reduction and efficiency in its EV business while acknowledging that U.S. demand may soften as federal tax credits expire.

"As we have demonstrated, GM’s commitment to building great vehicles, delivering exceptional customer experiences, and creating lasting value is unchanged. Looking forward, we believe our investments in advanced technologies, manufacturing, and talent will build on our solid foundation, and make GM even more innovative, resilient and capable of leading through change," Mary Barra said in her shareholder letter

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 09:10

Transcript: Henry Ward, Carta Chief Executive Officer

The Big Picture -

 

 

The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Henry Ward, Carta Chief Executive Officer, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

 

~~~

00:00:02 [Speaker Changed] Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News. This is Masters in business with Barry Riol on Bloomberg Radio this

00:00:15 [Speaker Changed] Week on the podcast. Yet another extra special guest, Henry Ward, is CEO and co-founder of Carta. They’re the company that keeps track of cap tables, compensation, valuation, liquidity for over 50,000 private companies. They work with 8,500 investment firms and over two and a half million equity holders to track all of this crucial information. It’s kind kind of hard to imagine that they were doing this manually with stock certificates before Carta came along and digitized everything and put it all on the cloud. Fascinating company. Fascinating guy. I thought this was really a great conversation. With no further ado, the CEO and co-founder of Carta Henry Ward, welcome to Bloomberg.

00:01:03 [Speaker Changed] Thanks for having me.

00:01:04 [Speaker Changed] Well, thanks so much for doing this. It’s been a crazy week with the UN and everything, so I’m glad you, you guys fought your way over. But I wanna start talking a little bit about your education and background. A bachelor’s in mathematics and computer science from University of Michigan, go Blue and MSC in market finance from E-D-H-E-C. I am less familiar with Ed Heck than I am with Ish. What was the original career plan?

00:01:35 [Speaker Changed] You know, I went to University of Michigan originally to be a math major. Technically, my, my degree on my transcripts has a bachelor’s of general studies. ’cause at that time to get a math degree, you were in the literature of Science and Arts College and you had to take two years of a foreign language. And I failed Japanese three times, tried Spanish, failed that twice. And my counselor was, and at the time I was supposed to go in the Marines and they said, look, I said to my counselor, you, I just need to graduate. And they said, well, look, if you switch to a general studies degree, you can, you can graduate. ’cause you have enough credits. It’s kind of a generalist degree. ’cause you took a bunch of math, computer science and linguistics and you can graduate next year. And, and I said, let’s do that. So it was me and 13 football players that graduated with a general studies degree that year. But, but the, my passion had always been math. I thought I’d be a mathematician. My roommate was a computer scientist. He got me into computers and, and then I went into software engineering.

00:02:35 [Speaker Changed] So two questions. First, did you end up in the Marines?

00:02:39 [Speaker Changed] I joined the Marines out of high school as an enlisted man. I, I went to Paris Island and then I later went into what’s called Platoon Leaders course, which is like the Marine Corps version of rotc. I did that. But when I finally graduated, and sometimes I, I regret this, you know, you kind of look back at old decisions and at the time, four years, four more years and the Marines seemed like an eternity. Right now it seems like nothing book of an eye

00:03:04 [Speaker Changed] Would be, it would be gone, right?

00:03:05 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. I ended up deciding to pay back my, my GI bill because this was 2000. I graduated in 1999. My signing bonus paid off my entire college debt at the time, and I decided to go that route. So I, I never

00:03:20 [Speaker Changed] Where was the signing bonus? Where’d you go?

00:03:22 [Speaker Changed] I went to a company called Trilogy out Austin, Texas. And it was an incredibly formative experience for me. I it was a very smart company. They, they were gonna be the Google of the South for a variety of reasons. It didn’t quite work out for them. They, the CEO is still there though, running Trilogy and it’s a great private privately held company. But yeah, that’s what took me into, into Texas.

00:03:43 [Speaker Changed] So I, I hear you saying you didn’t do well with languages with Japanese, with Spanish, but am I reading this correctly? Did you get your masters, your MSC in France?

00:03:52 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I did because the, the business schools in France are mostly taught in English. Huh. And English is hard enough for me. So I had to, I had to stick with, with an English business school. The plan was never to go to business school. I, I wanted to ride my bicycle in southern France. It was a big tour to France. Watch here. I loved riding my bike. My fiance now, ex ex-wife was like, well, hey, if we’re gonna go, I convinced her to come with me. We’re gonna be productive. Let’s go to business school while you train for the Iron Man and do all those things. And,

00:04:23 [Speaker Changed] And you did all of that?

00:04:24 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. So we, we, but it was a French business school, so there wasn’t a lot of work. There was a lot of riding, a lot of, a lot of eating bread. It was, it was a great couple years.

00:04:33 [Speaker Changed] So that’s a kind of fascinating mix of technical, financial, financial training, Marines and overseas study. How did that experience shape the way you think about building companies?

00:04:47 [Speaker Changed] You know, I, I realized pretty quickly, I, I, I’m not good at the military. My father was an army officer for a long time, and he used to tell me, you know, and the difference between military life and civilian life is in military life, you’re, you’re judged on the, the worst thing you do in civilian life, or certainly in startups. You’re judged on the best thing you do. And, and I’m very much, I do one or two things really well versus I do many things, you know, not wrong. And so I quickly realized the military was not not the right place for me. Investment banking was not the right place for me. I, I went to an investment bank after grad school, and then I discovered entrepreneurship sort of accidentally. And I, I realized this is what I was meant to do. Successful or unsuccessful. This is what I was meant to do.

00:05:32 [Speaker Changed] So, so let’s talk about the predecessor firm to Carta second site, a portfolio optimization platform. You launched that not long after grad school. How did that experience influence how you approached the next venture? How did it affect what your plans were for scaling Carta?

00:05:52 [Speaker Changed] So, I, the idea for second site was, it was like a wealth front or a betterment, one of these robo-advisors. But you know, Andy and Josh did a, a much better job than I I did, my company failed. And what I, what kind of rose outta the ashes of that was, and I got through the tr of depression after closing. It was, I couldn’t imagine doing anything else as a completely failed founder. I just wanted to do it again. And Carta came out of that experience. And it, it was one of these interesting things where the conventional wisdom for founders is you fall in love with a problem and entrepreneurship is a vehicle with which to that solve that problem. I was different. I fell in love with entrepreneurship. I fell in love with building a startup, and I just needed a problem. The problem was a vehicle with which to be a, a founder.

00:06:41 And that really shapes how Carta is today. We’re a heat seeking missile going after any problem we can find to solve to keep the business moving forward. And, and I, I talk a lot to early stage founders about this, is which one are you, are you in love with the being a founder? Are you in love with the problem? And both come with strengths and weaknesses. If you’re in love with being the, in the problem, you know, you’re passionate about the problem, you’ll grind through the, the bad stages of being a founder to solve this problem. The, the downside is if the problem isn’t actually that valuable, you kind of get stuck entrenched in this problem, right? And many founders burn and crash in that. The other side for me is, you know, because I’m not, I’ll do, I’ll work on any problem to, to move the company forward. There’s often not a coherent strategy. It’s like, I’ll grab a problem over here, I’ll grab a problem over there. And, and you can see it in the kind of diversity for, for a $500 million business, we have a, a large number of SKUs and business lines. And it’s because we shoot at a lot of different targets.

00:07:37 [Speaker Changed] So, so let’s talk about the initial target. How did you come up with the idea, hey, these cap tables, all the data around comp and valuation and VC investing. No one is really tracking this in a consistent, intelligent way. Like, what was that aha moment?

00:07:56 [Speaker Changed] I was working with Manu Kumar over at Canine Ventures on the, my previous company. And when we shut that down and, and we were talking about what am I gonna do next? He pointed out this cap table problem and, and was like, Hey, this is a real problem. I think you should solve it. Really? Yeah. Yeah. That’s fascinating. I’ll, I’ll invest in it. And, and he, he gave me this, this problem set to go after. And I, I spent a few months working on it and learning about it. What was really interesting was the first version of it was not cap table. So that’s what everybody knows us for. The first version actually was PayPal for equity. It was, instead of, back then you used to mail a paper stock certificate, just like we used to do with the railroads, right? And it cost $50 in FedEx fees and a hundred bucks for the paralegal to print it.

00:08:40 And, and somebody had to file it in a cabinet. And we were like, we said, Hey, why are we email or, you know, FedExing paper stock certificates, let’s just email it. And, and that was the initial idea. And we realized companies didn’t care that much. We thought the competition was FedEx. They didn’t care that much about it, but they said, well, hey, if you’re, you’re emailing all this stuff, can you just put all of it into a table and show it to me? And we’re like, yeah, we can do that. That sounds pretty good. And that was the thing that had product market fit, was just showing them everything we issued. And then once you had the cap table of the company, my, my heat seeking missile instincts were like, well, what else could we do? And then we launched four nine A and stock option expense accounting and employee management and cart total compensation and QSBS. And suddenly you could do so many things around this core system of record called the Cap Table. Huh.

00:09:29 [Speaker Changed] So fascinating. What was it like scaling that? What sort of technology issues did you run into? How much of the data you were finding? Was it all hand assembled or was there any mass amount of data that made it easy to navigate? What, what were the next few steps like, you

00:09:47 [Speaker Changed] Know, I often tell earlier stage founders, you know, being a, you know, we’re about 2000 employees now. The problems I deal with are no different than the early stage. They’re just bigger, faster, harder. But they’re the same, same set of problems. I I do the same thing every day than an early stage founder does. And it’s really simple. It’s talk to customers, figure out their problems, solve the product, build the product to solve their problems and make them happy. And that’s just it. It is just rinse and repeat. Everything else is just, you know, overhead to building a, a a, building a company. And so these days, you know, I’m in New York for, for a few days, half my meetings are our customer meetings.

00:10:28 [Speaker Changed] So this isn’t just obviously public companies. This is public and private companies. How do they differ? My assumption is it’s easier to track and access public companies data. What do you do on the private side?

00:10:44 [Speaker Changed] So public company data and, you know, Bloomberg’s a a great, you know, example of this is, is so ubiquitous and it’s how do we manage this incredible set of data across massive ecosystems and networks in the public markets. Private markets is very different. It’s, it’s private there, there’s no central place to access all this data. We have a lot of the data on what’s happening in the private markets, particularly around venture capital and private equity. But because it’s private, we can’t share it. And that is the very unique interesting thing about what we do is we track all the much of the same data that like a Bloomberg would track, but we can’t share it with anybody. And that’s the, that’s, many people have asked me, Hey, how come you haven’t done blockchain? You know, blockchain seems like an obvious thing for a cap table to be put on. And the reason is our, our customers pay us to fix things when they’re broken. And don’t tell anybody about, tell, don’t tell anybody about it. And blockchain is immutable and public. And that’s, that’s the big difference between private and public.

00:11:48 [Speaker Changed] Really. Interesting. What was the hardest problem in assembling a private market set of data and cap tables across the whole technology ecosystem?

00:12:00 [Speaker Changed] The, the big issue we had early was what I’ll call the dematerialization of, of private stock. So the, the model that we think we look at is when Nixon pulled us off the gold standard, he dematerialized cash. You know, now the Federal Reserve could just create cash because cash was now put into the cloud. They could create money, they could do what, they could move money around without actually moving physical inventory. They dematerialized cash and gold and put it in the cloud. And this was in the seventies. We think of us as doing the same thing. Was everything in private markets until Carta was, was cash, it was paper equity, it was contracts, it was PDFs, it was documents. And we dematerialize that. We put it all in the cloud. So now everything could be moved around seamlessly. Getting the ecosystem of venture capital to believe in the dematerialization of private, private equity and private capital was the hardest part. ’cause it sounds crazy today, but in 2012 and 13, lawyers were like, no, but you, you have to have a, a green stock certificate with an embroider around it. Like that’s what we’ve been doing literally for 200 years. I, I would like, who are you to change this? I,

00:13:14 [Speaker Changed] I would’ve thought if anybody would be amenable to let’s go from physical paper to digital, it would be Silicon Valley venture capitalists. They were pushing back or their lawyers were pushing back. The

00:13:25 [Speaker Changed] Lawyers are pushing back. But, but even the venture capitalists, ’cause the, the venture capitalists are, they’re very interesting because they are stewards of what the future will be and prognosticators of it, but they’re not users of it. And it’s one of these things I I say a lot about AI is everybody thinks AI will change everybody’s job except their own. And, and venture is the same. Like, oh, you know, all the companies should be using technology, but, but we don’t because we’re

00:13:54 [Speaker Changed] Just, we’re the professionals. We don’t need it. Exactly. We’re smarter than everybody else. Exactly. What was the aha moment where that ecosystem that was kind of pushing back said, oh, this is really useful and helpful. Yes, let’s dematerialize, let’s go digital.

00:14:10 [Speaker Changed] It was the grassroots, the the way we got it going was the grassroots efforts of startups saying, Hey, they, they didn’t understand that they were buying into a dematerialization model, but what they understood was, Hey, I can track my cap table cheaper, faster, better on Carta than anything else. And so they just came, came to us. That was the wedge, the net, the kind of the golden phrase is, you know, come, come for the tool, stay for the network. So the tool, the wedge was just better cap table management for one 10th of the cost. And then the network is, once everybody started converging on the cap tables, it became the new standard. So now it’s a weird world, just like, it’s a weird, weird, weird world to say that, you know, know we had paper stocks there to give it and that was the right way to do it. It is now a, a, a weird world to say, oh well why wouldn’t we put it in the database on the cloud?

00:14:58 [Speaker Changed] And that becomes a self-reinforcing flywheel. You get a critical mass and then you could go out in, in all sorts of directions from from there.

00:15:06 [Speaker Changed] That’s right. And nobody knows that better than, than Bloomberg and Mr. Bloomberg. ’cause that’s exactly what Bloomberg did.

00:15:11 [Speaker Changed] That That’s exactly right. Started with the data coming up. We continue our conversation with Henry Ward, CEO and co-founder of Carta, talking about how a simple cap table management became an essential part of the startup world. I’m Barry Ritholtz, you’re listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

00:15:44 I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra special guest today is Henry Ward. He is the CEO and co-founder of Carta. They help manage cap tables and so much more when it comes to both public and private corporate data. So let’s talk a little bit about this. You start with a simple capital table management kind of unglamorous, but sounds important, essential. Hey, I need to know how many shareholders I have, who owns what, what VCs, what, what employees own, how much stock, like I would’ve thought that was around for 30, 40 years. How has nobody been doing that for, you know, you could practically go back to, you know, the launch of Intel 40 years ago. How has this not been a thing?

00:16:37 [Speaker Changed] The one of the most common questions I got when I was raising money in the early days for this idea was, hey, this sounds kind of obvious. Why has nobody done this before? Right. And I, I, my answer was somewhat cheeky. And I, I always would say, how, how would I know I’m doing it? And you know, I’m the last person in the world that would know the answer to this. You should ask the SE 6.9 billion other people in the world that haven’t done it. Who chose not to, right. Who chose not to. And I’m, I’m a least qualified person. I, I think it’s just one of these inner innovator dilemma problems that the people that should have solved this should have been the investment banks. That should have been the ne the stock VCs. Stock exchanges vc, sure. Maybe even the VCs. Yeah. Somebody, somebody should have solved it, but you know, who’s going to do paper stock certificates? Like it just, it’s so somebody

00:17:29 [Speaker Changed] Had a clerk had to have a clerk or a junior researcher putting this together somewhere and had to realize there was some value to both the firm and various outside startups for, it’s kind of shocking

00:17:44 [Speaker Changed] For, for sure. But, but the, your, your point so well made, Barry is the kind of person that would be filing paper stock certificates would never come up with the idea of replacing them. And so you, you need this, this is the magic of a, a founder, a visionary founder is, is you need that connection of they, they know enough about technology to, to know what technology can do, but they don’t know enough about the current process that they think it’s unchangeable. And that’s the, you, you know, there’s certain level of intelligence and a certain level of stupidity that you need to get that, that chemical quotient. Right.

00:18:18 [Speaker Changed] So, so how did you convince investors that, hey, this is worthwhile, this should exist. It doesn’t, please invest in this. It’s worth building.

00:18:27 [Speaker Changed] Most investors said, Hey, the, the even I believe you can build a cap table product and make some money and sell it, but it, the, the market size is too small. How many cap tables can you actually sell? And the, the pitch was, well, hey, this is, this is a two-part story. Part one is win the cap tables. Part two is if you win the cap tables, then we can go build at the time what we called the NASDAQ for private markets. The, the stock exchange to trade the, these, these shares. And our thesis then was the reason why there were many stock market companies before us, but none of them had actually owned the settlement. They hadn’t owned the cap table itself. And so they had to connect, match, and settle these things offline. And by owning the cap table, we could digitize the entire settlement process for these companies. But we, you had to do the hard work of winning the cap table business first. We were wrong. It turned out the cap table business was way bigger than we and investors thought. Today it’s a $350 million business. Wow. But the, the stock market that everybody thought was gonna be, you know, a billion dollar business is zero for us.

00:19:37 [Speaker Changed] That, that’s unbelievable. Yeah. The, you know, VCs love to toss around tam, total addressable market. Again, kind of shocking that people right in the middle of this surrounded by tens of thousands of companies in California and Silicon Valley completely underestimated the total addressable market. Yeah. That, that’s just shocking to me. Let’s talk about the, the income stream you set up in the beginning. This was a fee per stock certificate business. You guys changed this to a subscription model. Tell us about the factors that drove those changes and how it affected the steadiness of your income stream.

00:20:19 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, so we, we thought we were competing against FedEx. And so instead of paying $60 to FedEx to FedEx a stock certific, you’ll pay us $20 to email it. It worked. People would pay for it. What was really hard about it though is it’s a transactional business. It’s very hard to, to manage the transactional business. And it was very volatile. And we also quickly realized that we wanted to move to a subscription based business. ’cause we needed to bundle other things that were, were more subscription based, like 4 0 9 a valuations and expense accounting and other services we were doing. But we were, we were two years in and, you know, at the time I think we had maybe 2000 customers that were all paying us 20 bucks. And we realized this was like a, a crucible moment for us. If we didn’t change the business model, we wouldn’t, we wouldn’t survive.

00:21:06 And we emailed all of our customers from me. I emailed all 2000 customers and I said, Hey, I made a mistake. I I priced this wrong for you and I I need to change from the $20 per certificate to, you know, X dollars per year. And, and everybody had a, a price that they, we custom already set up for them. So we didn’t even ask ’em, we just said, we’re moving you starting next month to the subscription model. And it was a very scary, scary thing to do. ’cause you don’t know what your customers are gonna do. Right? You, you literally changed the agreement in the mid-flight. And I, I explained in this long email, I said, I, I made a mistake. If I keep charging you this way, I’m gonna go outta business and I need to move you over to this. And I’m very sorry I made this mistake. I hope I understand if you decide to leave us, but I hope, I hope you won’t. And it was remarkable. We lost almost no customers. Wow. And I, I have some of these saved and framed where customers came back and said, you know, we’re so glad you did this ’cause we were wondering if you were gonna run out of business. Like we thought, you know, this pricing was wrong. It didn’t make any sense making,

00:22:19 [Speaker Changed] So the subscription model allows them to just keep doing repeat business and no one has to track, oh, we did these six companies and it’s however much it is. No, here’s our monthly fee and we can do as many companies as we have to work

00:22:33 [Speaker Changed] With. They, they have a monthly ex annual fee for most of them. They pay annually, they, they renew and based on the size of the cap table at that renewal, they, they just get a renewal notice. And, and it’s interesting, you know, eight years ago we were 10 x cheaper than the lawyers. Now we’re still eight x cheaper than the lawyers. But now it’s, it’s just a different, different world. People are used to software now. And it’s, it’s that, that, you know, 10 years ago is a, is a weird thing for these companies to pay a subscription fee for legal software. And today it’s super, super common. Do

00:23:06 [Speaker Changed] You really think about this as legal software? It, I mean it obviously has ramifications in law, but it really seems more like it’s a combination of hey, it, it’s business, it’s investing, it’s accounting. How, how do you contextualize what space you’re actually in

00:23:26 [Speaker Changed] It? It’s a great question. I I think we started as legal software and people thought of us as legal software. I think over the first five years we transitioned the concept of cap table from a legal solution to a financial solution. So we sort of categorize ourselves in the FinTech world. I think today, when you look at cap tables, our fund administration and fund accounting business, our LP business and all the, the, the software that we sell as a platform into private, private equity, private credit venture capital. I, I think of us now as a, as a software infrastructure business, you know, we, we, we sell, we’re we’re more similar to a NetSuite or even a Google suite than we are to a legal tech company or a

00:24:12 [Speaker Changed] Makes a lot of sense and save on legal fees. So, so back, let’s call it about eight years ago you were called e shares, which kind of intuitively makes a lot of sense. What was behind the rebranding? Why did you go from eShares to Carta in 2017?

00:24:31 [Speaker Changed] The, we liked eShares because it, it was an electronic share, you know, instead of paper. And it made a ton of sense. In 2017, we kind of realized we wanted to do way more than electronic shares. So we knew we needed a new name. We were also pushed on it because we didn’t own eshares.com. We owned eShares inc.com and there was a domain squatter on eshares.com.

00:24:55 [Speaker Changed] What did they want for it?

00:24:57 [Speaker Changed] They wanted, initially I think it was a million bucks when we had, we had $2 million raised total. And then as soon as we raised more money, it became $10 million. Oh really? And so it was just every single time we were trying to get more and we just couldn’t, couldn’t do business. And so we decided we needed to change the name and we came up with Carta and we were able to buy it for I think 75,000 bucks. And it was great.

00:25:21 [Speaker Changed] Wow. That’s fantastic. Did, did eShares ever get sold?

00:25:25 [Speaker Changed] I don’t think so. It is a great question. I don’t know if it’s still, I haven’t been there in a long time. It

00:25:30 [Speaker Changed] Just goes to show you, you know, you have to leave a little bit on money on the table if you try and squeeze every last penny end up with nothing. Exactly. So you guys, I mentioned in the original introduction, Carta serves 50,000 companies, 8,500 firms, millions and millions of equity holders. Starting out with that first $2 million raise, it appears that you’ve scaled from a, a little niche solution to a giant platform for private companies. What was the biggest growth pains in in that scaling that up?

00:26:04 [Speaker Changed] It’s all of them. We scaling a company, I, I think I, I love Jensen at Nvidia and I got to see ’em speak and you know, someone was asked him about would he do it again? And, and you know, he’s one of the most successful entrepreneurs of our generation. And he goes, if I knew what it would take, I wouldn’t have done it again. Really. And yeah, and you know, it’s, I think Mark Andreessen calls it, it’s, it’s eating glass until you, you enjoy the taste of your own blood. So it, it’s, you know, ev every day I, there’s sort of this funny thing where people are like, well what was it like to scale? And I’m like, I’m still doing it. Like, like we’re, you know, and, and it’s, you know, getting in at, you know, 10 o’clock last night from a 4:00 AM start. It’s, you know, talking to customers, it’s hiring, firing, you know, uncomfortable conversations, you know, board mechanics. It’s, it’s all the same. It’s just more harder, faster.

00:26:59 [Speaker Changed] Is andreessen’s quote eating glass till you like the taste of your own blood? Is that accurate? Or is it a little hyperbolic?

00:27:06 [Speaker Changed] You know, I think, so I talk a lot to founders about this, where the, the founders that want to be founders for the money, we all know that the expected value of being an entrepreneur is, is below pursuing a career far, far below the better business bureau

00:27:22 [Speaker Changed] Actually well sold such a large percentage fail Exactly at the gate. So that’s exactly, we all the survivorship bias of, we see the ones that have succeeded. That’s just the top of the iceberg. You don’t see everything below the waterline. A

00:27:33 [Speaker Changed] Hundred percent. And then when you see the ones that succeeded, sort of by definition the ones that succeeded, made it look easy, right? Because it’s like we’re on podcasts doing, doing all of these things. They

00:27:44 [Speaker Changed] Found the right niche, they pivoted appropriately. They built what was needed and the market rewarded

00:27:49 [Speaker Changed] That. That’s exactly right. How hard could it be? That’s exactly right. And and when I look at my history, I know how lucky I got. Like there’s so many forks in the road that, boy, if I had flipped heads instead of tails, I would not be here. And I had, I had to flip, you know, I had to flip tails 32 times in a row to get to, to where I am.

00:28:08 [Speaker Changed] I’m gonna, let me interrupt you a second ’cause I just have to share this. So I’ve done oh 550, 600 of these and I have heard that exact thing over and over again. And the first couple of times I heard it, especially from billionaires, I’m like, yeah, yeah, false humility. But then when I start hearing it from more people, from guys like you who are in the trenches chewing on glass, it’s like, and my own experience as an entrepreneur, you really smart and hard work is just table stakes. You really have to get lucky. And people don’t understand how the role of serendipity in, in how things work out.

00:28:46 [Speaker Changed] One, one of my favorite other quotes is Bo bo Durham, the comedians said, you know, don’t take advice from successful people. ’cause it’s, it’s like listening to Taylor Swift say, follow your dreams. You know, or, or the lottery winner goes, you know what you should do, sell everything you own and buy lottery tickets. That’s right. And

00:29:04 [Speaker Changed] That’s an XKCD. They told me I would never win, but I kept at it. That’s right. And here I am today. Exactly. No, it’s, it’s a hundred percent true. Listen, there’s so much more signal in the failures than there are in the successes. ’cause success. Maybe it was skill, maybe it was luck. We don’t know.

00:29:20 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. And I, what I try to coach like in my angel investments is it, I call it, you know, the love of the game. And so, you know, you see founders that I wanna be successful, I wanna be a successful founder. I wanna make the money. You know, and, and what I always tell ’em is like, hey, the, the problem with money doing this for the money is most of your journey, if not all, you’re poor, right? You’re seed stage, early stage, you’re just poor. And so if you’re doing it for the money, you, you kind of quickly lose motivation. ’cause you’re poor for years, right? And then let’s say you’re one of the lucky for you to get successful. Well, well now you’re rich. And so if you do it for the money now, now you just, you have no reason to do it anymore. ’cause you’ve got the money and the, the, the people that that, that are successful over time in this business, do it for the love of the game. Like I, you know, I do it because I love chewing glass.

00:30:09 [Speaker Changed] My, you know, my wife and I were having a conversation the other day about when we were poor and I mean really poor. And the really challenging thing is when you’re in the thick of it, you don’t know that it’s gonna work out. You have no idea, Hey, am I gonna get that lucky break? Is the right client, partner, customer gonna come along and and give me that critical mass to go to the next level? So not only are you poor, but the outcome is wholly unknown. And so if you don’t love it, then what are you, what are you doing?

00:30:42 [Speaker Changed] That’s right. You’re poor and you’re, it’s an you’re living in constant uncertainty.

00:30:46 [Speaker Changed] Uncertainty. Absolutely.

00:30:47 [Speaker Changed] And I think what people forget is, you know, I, I’m not poor anymore, but I still live in uncertainty and, you know, I don’t know what’s gonna happen. You know, I’m trying to build a bigger business, you know, and, and the water watermark keeps going up. And so like, if, if in three years the watermark isn’t higher, I I will feel like I failed the last three years. And I, I think that’s the, you know, that’s the essence of being entrepreneur is the watermark keeps going up and you keep going up.

00:31:11 [Speaker Changed] Huh. Really quite, quite fascinating. I want to dive into the world of, of private companies and alts, but before we do that, I just had to ask you a data question. My, my assumption is accessing reliable and clean data has to be the lifeblood of what you’re doing. How challenging is that? How many different inputs do you guys have to track at Carta?

00:31:37 [Speaker Changed] I have a perspective on, on software and data businesses that might be a bit provocative, which is, I’ll make this statement that software businesses cannot be data businesses. And the reason is, if a software business has customer data, they get that customer data by selling software and and service to this customer. And if they monetize that data on the other side, if their left hand is, we will keep, keep your data confidential and as part of our software service to you. But then with the right hand they’re selling that data, it cannibalizes their software business. ’cause the customers won’t trust them now ’cause they’re now giving ’em their data. Which is why Carta does not have a data product. We have tons of data. We do not have a monetizable data product. Huh, interesting. We only sell workflow or business operation software. The, the, it’s hard to think of a business that sells actual software and also sells data. I I can’t think of any, even Bloomberg started really as a data data business. The, the non-existent, non-existence of something is not proof that it cannot exist. But my my best example of why my theory that software businesses and data businesses cannot coexist in one company is Salesforce. If anybody would launch a data product,

00:32:55 [Speaker Changed] So funny. That’s who exactly it would be

00:32:56 [Speaker Changed] Salesforce was thinking of. And in 30 years they have not. And I don’t think they ever will. And I think the day Salesforce launches a successful data business, I I will be eating my words and I will be wrong, but I don’t think software businesses can become data businesses. I

00:33:11 [Speaker Changed] I would imagine that, so we use, in my shop, we use Salesforce as our CRM very customizable. And they have specific industries that they, they market towards and and customize. But the moment it feels like your data is being reused, every single one of their competitors would say, we keep your data safe. We don’t monetize the data. Give ’em up on them. Come to us where we respect privacy. I mean, I think the moment anybody tries that their competition is all over that.

00:33:43 [Speaker Changed] And, and you would agree because suddenly you’re now on every list of every vendor trying to sell software to bury and they know everything about you. ’cause Salesforce gave them your data.

00:33:52 [Speaker Changed] Not only that, but it’s not quite hipaa. But the SEC has privacy requirements. Things you’re not allowed to share when you, you’re supposed to know your client. You have all this data. And if one of your vendors is reusing that, repurposing that data for their own ends, like, wait, not only are you violating our privacy agreement, you’re putting me underwater with the SEC, they may come yell at me. I I don’t need that. Totally. I’m I’m gonna go to your competition. Kind of interesting. So, so let’s, let’s pivot towards the private markets. ’cause it’s so interesting. You’ve testified before Congress that’s startups and growth companies backed by private capital. That’s where most of the new job growth comes in the United States. Explain.

00:34:37 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. You know, public markets is, is actually a shrinking industry. You know, there’s fewer public companies today than there were 10 years ago by, by quite a big margin. But the number of private companies is growing astronomically and be, that’s largely fueled by there’s a lot more private capital than there used to be to fund these businesses. And there’s less reasons to, to, to go public now. So I think, I think that will continue to be true. I think it’s structurally true. When I go to the, to the hill and, and talk to our legislators, the, the common response is, well, we just have to push more companies to go public. I, I think it’s like what the, their, their belief is the public markets is a great product for everyday Americans to access growth equity. And I think they’re right. It, it is a good product for it. The problem is it’s not the, it’s a shrinking product and most of the growth is being hap is happening in the private markets. And there are attempts to get these companies to go public so that there can be retail access to them is isn’t working. It’s a little bit like, you know, the river’s coming and you’ve got like one tiny little dam trying to hold the water back. Let,

00:35:46 [Speaker Changed] Let me share a data point that I bet a lot of listeners are not familiar with the US is something like four to 5% of the global population where something like 24, 20 5% of the global economy, global market cap we’re over half. I mean, we are wildly disproportionate in our public markets. How much bigger does Congress wanna make that? I mean, what you’re describing makes a lot of sense. The public markets are enormous. Let’s let the private markets grow and see where they go.

00:36:16 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. And that’s certainly the, the, the message that that, that we’re pushing, we still have to solve the problem of, of retail access because as the number of public companies is, is shrinking. That’s less, less and less options for your everyday American to invest their money in their retirement. I don’t think the answer is to try to push more companies to go public. I think the answer is to create safe access for everyday Americans into private capital. And that’s what we spend a lot of time lobbying for in Congress.

00:36:45 [Speaker Changed] Huh. Really quite, quite fascinating coming up. We continue our conversation with Henry Ward, CEO and co-founder of Carter, talking about the rise of private company investing. I’m Barry Riol, you’re listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

00:37:16 I am Barry Reho. You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra special guest this week is Henry Ward. He’s the CEO and co-founder of Carta. They help manage the cap tables for tens of thousands of private companies, thousands of investment firms and millions of equity holders. They do a number of other things in terms of tracking, compensation, valuation, liquidity, all these really fascinating issues. So there are a number of companies that bring liquidity to private companies. Sometimes it’s it’s private equity or, or some form of a private fund. Other times it’s individuals who wanna participate in companies before they go public. What are your thoughts on the future of secondary liquidity, both for the investors and employees of startups and for the rest of the investing public that wants to participate in these privates?

00:38:13 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, so I am, I think I’m one of the maybe top five people in the world that have worked on private market liquidity. I, I spent the, the last 10 years working on the, on the problem. And I, I’m of the view now that that at least venture startup liquidity will, will never happen. And, and at least a, a secondary exchange in the, in the sense that we think of public market exchanges, the private markets are so different from public, it’s really kind of the upside down world. You know, in, in public markets, the the price is set by the last buyer, not the first in private markets. It’s set by the first and not the last. And public markets, it’s easier to sell one share than a hundred million dollars worth of shares in private markets. Easier to sell a hundred million dollar block than it is to sell one one share. You know, in public markets the distribution outcomes is mostly Gaussian normally distributed in private markets. It’s it’s power law. So all the math that exists to, in modern portfolio finance theory in public markets doesn’t work in private. So it, it is just, it’s a very different market infrastructure. I I think all the attempts they try to create liquidity in the, in the venture world are, are, will be failed attempts. But I hope I’m wrong, I hope I’m just old. I

00:39:27 [Speaker Changed] Mean, equity Zen seems to have figured this out a while ago. They seem to have put together a way to do secondaries for creating some liquidity for, for insiders or employees at companies. But it’s not like they’re a trillion dollar platform. It’s, it’s a little bit of a niche specific focused. And there are other companies like that. I just happen to be thinking of them recently. But really what you’re saying is there’s a gulf between trillions and trillions of dollars in public equity and private stock and, and never the twain shall meet. So

00:40:05 [Speaker Changed] In, in public markets liquidity begets liquidity. And so it centralizes on two exchanges in the US and most regions it centralizes on one in, in private markets. What’s happened is there’s equities and there’s many others. There’s many, many small niche businesses doing secondaries. It does happen, but liquidity does not. But beget liquidity, the, as soon as one of these companies starts to scale, all the competitors come around and they devolve back down to a niche business. And and that’s just the, the, the market structure is that any company that actually starts to scale in their private markets, it actually the it degenerates there. The, we’ve seen so many examples of com of private market liquidity providers, you know, come in hot, get really a quick start and then, and then once they hit scale it falls down. And so you see so many of these small businesses that will always stay small businesses. I don’t think there’s an opportunity for someone to consolidate the market.

00:41:03 [Speaker Changed] There’s been so much focus on privates and alternatives. D does this intensity of interest, does this surprise you at all or you’ve been up to your chin in this for, for a decade and what took everybody so long?

00:41:17 [Speaker Changed] We, we’ve been in this up to up to up to my chin as you say, for for a decade plus. So it’s, it’s not surprising. What I think is really, we’re in a moment of time in the speed that it’s happening, especially with the current administration. We’re liberalizing a lot of the rules for private market access. You know, there’s a lot of work being done around can retail investors access private equity firms? Private credit firms. I think that will continue to happen and I think that’s a big tailwind for, for Carta. And I think the, the, the US economy and and GDP because so much of this capital is being now deployed in, in useful ways. I think that will continue to be true in the next administration. Hopefully they will continue that legislative policy. I think it will, it will be weird in 20 or 30 years, it will be weird that we locked out 99% of Americans out of private capital.

00:42:14 [Speaker Changed] So when I look at who’s being aggressive in terms of moving from, how do we get more people onto the alternatives and private side, it’s everyone from Blackstone to BlackRock, Carlisle, Apollo, Goldman Sachs go down the list. I’m assuming you’re working with some or most of these companies.

00:42:33 [Speaker Changed] We we know them all and we’re we’re huge fans. I I was lucky enough to spend an hour with Rob Goldstein, the, the COO over at BlackRock and, and he was telling me kind of the vision of, of BlackRock and their, their perspective on private markets and you know, he, he made this very salient point, which was, you know, when they talk to their customers, they, they might look at a customer and they, they spend, you know, $25 million a year on public market infrastructure and technology for their public market asset allocation software. And they might spend, you know, 300, you know, $350,000 on their private market stuff. A fraction, a fraction, right? With BlackRock. But they might spend a million dollars total. So 350 k is with BlackRock and 700 K is with a bunch of other vendors. And his team is like, oh, we should go after that 700 k and we’ll win the whole, you know, million dollars that they send in alts. And he goes, no, no, no, no. What we need to do is figure out how to get that million dollars a year they spend in alts to be $25 million a year. Right. And then we’ll capture half of that. And, and that was the, the mental mind shift that I think BlackRock is so smart at, which is we’re trying to grow the market, not not our percentage of the market. Right.

00:43:50 [Speaker Changed] That makes, that makes a whole lot of sense. So they’re looking at an adjacent market to their public market dominance. They’re the biggest investment firm in the world at around $12 trillion. How do you decide what adjacent markets are attractive? And you might wanna enter them if you started with cap tables, you’re doing all sorts of other data analytics. How do you figure out what’s adjacent?

00:44:15 [Speaker Changed] We, we have a really strict framework on it because we spend a lot of our time thinking about where we can expand. And we have really two, two criteria. So one is do we have a a right to win? So what gives us competitive edge that we can do that nobody else can do? And second is, can we, can we win that market quickly? Because we’re very much a software business. Like if, if you can win a market, but it takes a long time. We’re a growth growth company, so it’s gotta be fast. So you have to have a very aggressive customer acquisition model that, that creates a flywheel. That the more customers you get, the more customers you get. And so if those two things are true, we’ll we’ll go after it. And it it, it leads you to really funny things where you wouldn’t actually attack adjacent markets that are obvious adja that have obvious adjacencies. So the example I love is cap tables and four nine A cap tables was a legal service when we entered it done by lawyers. Four nine a valuations was a valuation service done by valuation providers. Nobody thought of them as similar. What we realized is by having the cap table, we could do valuations faster, cheaper, smarter. And so we just started doing valuations. Well,

00:45:21 [Speaker Changed] Well, you know, the tomba number of shareholders, you know what the last transaction or funding was. It sounds pretty basic math, right?

00:45:27 [Speaker Changed] Totally. It’s just math on the cap table. But they’re a completely different industry. So if you think about from a market perspective, they’re different. But you think about it from where we have competitive edge, they’re the same and the same with fund accounting, fund administration, fund accounting software. Very different industry than cap table management. But we’re able to connect the cap tables to the funds and that gave us unique competitive advantage that nobody else could do. And so now we’re in the fund admin business and that’s, that’s our our second biggest business line.

00:45:54 [Speaker Changed] You, you guys also do compensation analytics. How did you find your way into that space?

00:45:58 [Speaker Changed] We realized we’re the only ones that could do benchmarking for both salary and equity for startups. Oh, of course. Nobody else can do it. And so Right.

00:46:06 [Speaker Changed] Without the equity, the salary may not be that significant.

00:46:09 [Speaker Changed] That’s right. But to, to have start at a priority and go, we’re gonna do cap tables and that’s gonna lead us into compensation didn’t make a ton of sense. And that’s the, we have a a a a flywheel of this is how we entered these industries.

00:46:21 [Speaker Changed] You are the perfect person to ask this question. I’m gonna go off script. So I spoke at an event in June in Silicon Valley. It was a kind of funky hotel that was turned into this really interesting space right on the edge of trying to remember exactly where it was about 45 minutes outside of San Francisco. But anyway, it was an employee benefits conference with all sorts of people. And I was there to talk about my book at the time. And I heard over and over again from all these people who, the 401k people, they’re employee compensation consultants, they’re health benefit consultants, all these people who were telling me that there’s this sort of misalignment amongst Silicon Valley employees who were more interested in the dollars than they are in the equity. Which just completely sounds upside down to me. Am I just looking at a weird corner of the world or is that a thing that, hey, you can’t pay your rent with equity. I have to at least make x What do you see out there in terms of how startup employees are thinking about equity versus cash payments for comp? Yeah,

00:47:40 [Speaker Changed] We, we’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this and I’ll, I’ll I’ll frame it. As you know, wealth management financial advice is a well established industry in the public world and the, I’ll call it the liquid world, right? You pay, you know, 1% or half a percent of a UM to your financial advisor and they, they help you manage your assets. There is no equivalent in the private world. Like if I’m a employee and I make, you know, $150,000 a year in cash, but I’m sitting on a million or $2 million of equity, illiquid equity, how, how do I think about that? How, how do I work on it? And there is no industry for that. The financial advisors don’t know how to work with that in part ’cause they don’t understand the, the private market, you know, illiquid asset piece. But also they don’t have, they don’t have any way to monetize $2 million worth of private stock.

00:48:29 You can’t, you know, you can’t charge one basis point or a percent of a UM on it. And so, so we’ve wrestled with this question of if an industry were to be created, not wealth managed but but wealth management for illiquid people for high net worth, but illiquid asset holders, what would that industry look like? And so we’ve been thinking a lot about that problem. And, and we, we recently launched a partnership with Morgan Stanley where we’re last year we posed this problem to them and we said, Hey, we think it’s worth solving wealth management for illiquid holders. How would we do that? And they’re, you know, the largest wealth management firm in the country. They do this extremely well. And now we’re creating a motion to basically help these employees who are like, I would just want the cash ’cause I don’t know what to do with this equity. I don’t know, I don’t understand it. I I don’t know when it’s gonna be liquid. And can you create a financial advisory industry to help those people?

00:49:26 [Speaker Changed] Hmm. That, that’s really fascinating. I was genuinely shocked. Maybe because I’m, I’m more risk seeking than risk averse and the thought of equity is so, you know, attractive to me. But I guess when you’re in the thick of it and you’re grinding a hundred hour weeks, hey, I’m working my butt off and I still have to worry about paying my rent. I I don’t wanna go that way. That was the only explanation I could come up with. But it was, it was really quite fascinating. I only have you for a limited amount of time. Why don’t we jump to some of our favorite questions that we ask all of our guests starting with, and you’re a good person to ask this. Tell us about your mentors who helped shape your career.

00:50:08 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I, I don’t think I’ve had just one. I I think I pulled together a lot of people that have that helped me with little different things. And so, you know, everything from my boxing coach in high school and college that, that, you know, boxing’s an interesting sport ’cause it’s one of the very few sports that if you’re tired and you’re in pain and you have to let off the gas a little bit, it hurts more, not less. And

00:50:33 [Speaker Changed] You gotta dig

00:50:33 [Speaker Changed] Deep. That’s right. And you know, there’s, it’s literally in the corner and you know, from, from perseverance from him, from the marines, from, you know, mark Andreessen who helped me figure out, you know, NetSuite, what we call ERP for private capital at a breakfast to, you know, John Waldron, who I had to got to have a lunch with him, who’s the president at, at Goldman, who explained to me why bankers make more money than I do. And it’s ’cause of the regulatory defensibility. And so you just pick up these nuggets from these very smart people and, and you, you hold ’em as a treasure trove.

00:51:11 [Speaker Changed] Let’s talk about books. What are some of your favorites? Are you reading anything currently?

00:51:15 [Speaker Changed] We just read Amp It Up as a, as a leadership team. So we, last month we, we took 60 of our top leaders at Carta and, and on an offsite. And every time we do an offsite at Carta, we pick a book to read and everybody has to read it. And we do a discussion group. And it was very timely for us. We’re, we’re in very much an acceleration mo motion and so, so everybody at, at Carta right now is, is reading Amp It up and, and talking about it.

00:51:41 [Speaker Changed] Hmm. Really interesting. What about streaming? What are you listening to in terms of podcasts or watching on Netflix or Amazon? I kind of get the sense you’re not a big couch potato kind of guy.

00:51:51 [Speaker Changed] I’m not, I I don’t really watch TV except I have an 11-year-old boy and I recently got him into Arrested Development, which is a classic, classic. I absolutely mean it’s some of the best comedy ever done. And, and we’re watching it together and we’re loving it. And now he, he hits me with the lines and you know, dad, I, I’ve made a huge mistake and we’re having a great time with it

00:52:14 [Speaker Changed] Narrator. It wasn’t, yeah, right. That’s, I mean, that’s where that comes from. People use it all the time, but it all goes right back to, I, I like his podcast, smartless is always kind of fun. Our final two questions. What sort of advice would you give to a recent college grad who is interested in a career in fill in the blank entrepreneurship, startups, private companies?

00:52:41 [Speaker Changed] You know, I, I just did a talk at Waterloo yesterday to a bunch of soon to be grads there and, and I, I said, you know, they were computer science grads and, and I said, you know, there’s, you know, they know of this algorithm called the Hill climbing algorithm, which is basically, if you’re trying to find a global maximum versus a local maximum. What I mean by that, the analogy I use is, let’s say you’re an a French, you know, you’re climbing in the French Alps as a mountain climber and you’re trying to find the tallest mountain in the French Alps, but there’s cloud cover. You can’t see, you can’t see the tops of these. How would you find the, the highest mountain? And you would, you would do it by picking a mountain, climbing to the top, recording how high you are, and then randomly jumping to another mountain and climbing and recording that.

00:53:22 And there’s all this math around, you know, how many random jumps to mountains do. You have to have to have a 90% probability of finding the global, the global maximum. And I, I say it’s a great analogy for a metaphor for, for early careers, which is most of us unfortunately are taught. You go through kindergarten to high school to college, you pick a career at 19 or a specialty, you then become a, a finance analyst, an associate, then you become a senior associate, then you become a man and you just, you kind of walk this track and you, you never ask the question, am I on a local opt hill or a global optimal hill? And I encourage people early to, to jump mountains to figure out which, which mountain they want to be on. And I think one of the reasons many people my age are very unhappy in their careers is they look back and they realize, oh, I got to the top of the mountain, but it was the wrong mountain. And I encourage young people to, to mountain jump.

00:54:17 [Speaker Changed] I, I, I love that metaphor. Mountain jump is a great, great line. What do you know about the world of entrepreneurship, startups, et cetera today might have been useful 20 or so years ago when you were first starting out?

00:54:31 [Speaker Changed] Idea matters. It matters a lot. ’cause I’ve had a lot of great ideas that did not work and I worked hard, hard at it. I also think there’s this counterintuitive, I guess, thesis that’s happening right now, which is the more entrepreneurs there are, the harder entrepreneurship gets. But people think the opposite, right? Oh, so many’s do, so many people are doing it. I can do too. The number Michael

00:54:58 [Speaker Changed] MOBAs not calls that the paradox of skill, the more skillful players there are in sports, the more luck matters because everybody’s playing at such a high level.

00:55:08 [Speaker Changed] A hundred percent. And I think it’s one of these funny things where like, not many people, you know, dream or move to Atlanta to be a hundred meter, you know, sprinter. ’cause I, you know, I think I can be the greatest a hundred meter sprinter in the world. And it’s because there’s not a lot of luck. I mean, there’s luck around, you don’t get injured and all of those things, but like, we pretty quickly can tell who’s good and who’s not good. That’s

00:55:32 [Speaker Changed] Your skill outcome.

00:55:33 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. And, and the, it’s a little bit like acting like so much of it is luck that because so much of it is luck. People think anybody can do it and it, it’s actually worse. You actually have to be a super skilled, you know, a hundred meter sprinter and you have to be lucky to do one of these startups. And I think a lot of people are like, oh, you know, a lot of it’s luck. So if it’s luck, anybody can do it. It’s, it’s, you gotta have both. It makes it actually harder, not easier.

00:55:59 [Speaker Changed] I love the expression, table stakes. Smart, hardworking, that’s just to enter the arena. Then you gotta luck. Get lucky on top of it. That’s right. Un unbelievable. Henry, this has been absolutely fascinating. We have been speaking with Henry Ward. He is the CEO and co-founder of Carta, helping to manage much more than just the cap table for tens of thousands of companies, investment funds and investors. If you enjoy this conversation, well check out any of the 565 we’ve done over the past 11 years. You can find those at Bloomberg, iTunes, Spotify, YouTube, wherever you get your favorite podcast. And be sure to check out my new book, how Not to invest the ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth and how to avoid them. How not to invest at your favorite bookstore.

~~~

 

 

The post Transcript: Henry Ward, Carta Chief Executive Officer appeared first on The Big Picture.

UBS: "French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu Might Not Make It Until Year-End"

Zero Hedge -

UBS: "French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu Might Not Make It Until Year-End"

The French blue-chip stock index CAC 40 is higher in Paris afternoon trading, reaching levels not seen since May 2024 and well above those of last week’s political crisis. Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s defeat of no-confidence votes in the French government late last week has certainly cooled the turmoil. However, one UBS analyst tracking the headlines from France believes that Lecornu “might not make it until year-end,” as a highly polarized parliament could make passing a budget nearly impossible.

UBS analyst Simon Penn briefed clients that Lecornu’s ability to pass a budget may suggest the political storm is far from over:

French PM Lecornu Might Not Make It Until Year-End

Political advisory group Forefront isn’t convinced French Prime Minister Lecornu will remain in office until the end of the year.

His basic problem is the same one that each of his predecessors has faced — he is going to struggle to pass a budget.

The Socialists were clear last week: they were willing to lend their support to get Lecornu through confidence votes, but that didn’t mean they supported his budget proposals. Forefront noted that the first thing Lecornu will need to do is enact the suspension of pension reform. He might be able to get that through the National Assembly, but the right-leaning Senate is opposed. If it fails in the Senate, it will go to a joint committee, and since that has a center-right bias, a decision to suspend pension reform will likely hinge on a raft of other requirements. This brings it full circle — the National Assembly is unlikely to accept those.

The latest data from the cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket shows that Lecornu’s odds of being ousted are 4% between now and the end of October, but rise to 38% by year-end.

Ignoring S&P Global’s cut of France’s credit rating last Friday due to political instability and the eurozone’s second-biggest economy’s inability to get its finances under control, the CAC 40 index has pushed higher, exceeding recent political turmoil levels and reaching highs not seen since May 2024.

“With the current downgrade, France falls below AA- from two of the three rating agencies, and it should result in forced selling from a number of institutional investors who are sensitive to ratings,” Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist for Europe at Jefferies, told clients.

Lecornu plans to reduce the budget deficit to 4.7% of GDP next year from 5.4% in 2025. This is the first step toward bringing it below the EU’s 3% ceiling and putting the country on a sustainable path. But the fractured parliament might make getting a budget passed near impossible. And back to UBS’s note above: Lecornu is likely on borrowed time.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 08:55

LA Ports: Imports and Exports Down YoY in September

Calculated Risk -

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.
The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

The first graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

LA Area Port TrafficClick on graph for larger image.

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.  
Imports were down 7% YoY in September, and exports were down 2% YoY.    
To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the second graph shows the rolling 12-month average.

LA Area Port TrafficOn a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic decreased 0.6% in September compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.   
Outbound traffic decreased 0.1% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.
This is the 10th consecutive month with exports down YoY.

Philly Fed Services Signals Slowdown In Jobs, Orders Continues

Zero Hedge -

Philly Fed Services Signals Slowdown In Jobs, Orders Continues

Desperate for any information amid the government shutdown-invoked vacuum of macro data, this morning we get a glimpse of more 'soft' survey data, showing that Non-Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed region softened overall,

Additionally, the indexes for general activity at the firm level, new orders, and sales/revenues fell, with the latter two turning negative.

The firms reported an overall decrease in full-time employment.

Worse still, firms expected no change for growth over the next six months at the firm level and a decline in activity for the region. The diffusion index for future activity at the firm level fell 12 points to 0.2, its lowest reading since April

On the potentially bright side, Prices Paid and Received indices both fell last month (but remain positive, suggesting expectations for higher prices)...

Finally, since the shutdown began, what little hard data we have seen is basically flat while soft survey data has deteriorated significantly...

Of course, the big one will come on Friday when CPI is due to be released, and vol markets are aware of it...

Dip-buyers may want to reflect on that.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 08:46

Global Stock Rally Pauses As Gold, Silver Slide From Record High

Zero Hedge -

Global Stock Rally Pauses As Gold, Silver Slide From Record High

US equity futures are flat, reversing a small overnight loss, with small caps seeing some underperformance in what looks more like profit-taking than material de-risking. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are unchanged after the S&P 500 notched its best two-day gain since June and the Nasdaq closed at a record high; premarket Mag7 / Semis are mixed but are net weaker with cyclicals underperforming as commodity names are underperforming due to a sharp overnight sell-off in precious metals, among the most notable moves today. Gold -2% and Silver -5% which appears to be de-risking in a low liquidity environment with both metals among the top YTD performing asset classes; gold set a new ATH yesterday. The rest of the commodity complex is seeing muted moves. Bond yields are flat to lower by 1bp as the USD sees a bid. The macro data focus is on Philly Fed. Coca-Cola, General Electric, Halliburton, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX and 3M are expected to report results before the market open. Steady subscriber gains and rising average revenue per member should keep Netflix which reports after the close, on track for 17.3% sales growth in 3Q.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Meta +0.5%, Amazon +0.3%, Microsoft 0.1%, Apple -0.2%, Nvidia little changed, Alphabet -0.1%, Tesla -0.3%)

  • Gold and silver companies are tumbling as the precious metals slipped from their latest records as global trade tensions ease.
  • Coca-Cola Co. (KO) climbs 2% after posting third-quarter sales growth that beat Wall Street expectations — a sign that consumers are snapping up the company’s beverages despite higher prices.
  • Core Scientific Inc. (CORZ) is up 2% after a key proxy adviser said a takeover bid by CoreWeave Inc. undervalues the data center company.
  • Crown Holdings (CCK) gains 8% after the packaging products company boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year, beating the average analyst estimate.
  • Elevance (ELV) gains 4% after the health insurer posted third-quarter profit that was ahead of expectations. The company also reaffirmed its adjusted earnings-per-share forecast for the full year, slightly above the average analyst estimate.
  • Fluor (FLR) rises 5% after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Starboard Value has amassed a nearly 5% stake in the engineering and construction company, citing people familiar with the matter.
  • General Electric Co. (GE) inches 1% higher after the company raised its full-year outlook for a second consecutive quarter as the jet-engine manufacturer cashes in on strong air-travel demand.
  • General Motors Co. (GM) climbs 8% after raising its full-year outlook and posting third-quarter results that topped Wall Street estimates on better—than-expected pickup truck sales and fresh relief from the Trump administration’s tariffs on auto parts.
  • Halliburton (HAL) rises 3% after the energy service company reported third-quarter revenue that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • NuScale Power Corp. (SMR) falls 4% after two analysts downgraded the nuclear small modular reactor company over concerns about its ENTRA1 deal.
  • Philip Morris (PM), maker of oral pouch product Zyn, rises 3% after narrowing its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year.
  • RTX Corp. (RTX) rises 5% after the company boosted its full-year profit outlook and reported third-quarter earnings that topped Wall Street expectations as sales and profit rose across its commercial aerospace and military hardware businesses.
  • Zions (ZION) gains 1% after saying its profit topped estimates despite a $50 million loss from an alleged fraud, helping reassure investors who’d feared the credit markets might be harboring some deeper pain.

In corporate news, Amazon Web Services resolved the issues that plagued its services for about 15 hours on Monday, an episode that highlighted how much of the internet is dependent on a single company. Goldman is building out its wealth-management division in Saudi Arabia, while PayPal is said to be taking over a stake in German digital commerce company Shopware from a Carlyle fund.

The S&P 500 logged its biggest two-day gain since June as the third-quarter earnings season gets into full swing, with about 85% of US firms beating profit estimates so far. While the US government shutdown has caused an economic data vacuum, creating uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s policy path, drawdowns have been short-lived, as investors see them as opportunities to add risk to their portfolios.

“Another day, another dearth of US data, as the government shutdown continues, with no end in sight,” said Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “To my mind, the path of least resistance continues to lead to the upside, and dips remain buying opportunities.”

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release September’s consumer price index on Friday, after a delay due to the government shutdown. The data, originally slated for Oct. 15, will give Fed officials a key reading on inflation ahead of their Oct. 30 policy meeting.  The data may take on greater importance due to the government shutdown-driven data drought, said Rick Gardner at RGA Investments. He still sees a Fed cut in October and noted that a key test will be Big Tech earnings, with investors looking for clarity on how spending on artificial intelligence is leading to profitability. 

“While earnings will remain in focus, particularly any updates on demand trends, international exposure post-tariffs, and their impact on profitability and capex, I think this week’s key events will be the inflation releases in the UK and US,” said Susana Cruz, a strategist at Panmure Liberum, “Both are still running hot and expected to rise further. Any upside surprises there could easily derail the rally.”

Everything is weird,” said Bobby Molavi, head of EMEA execution services at Goldman. All-time highs are everywhere and classic asset class correlations are breaking down as stocks continue to climb every “wall of worry,” he wrote. It’s ‘the rally no one trusts,’ according to Bloomberg’s Markets Live blog.

As we have explained time and time again, buy-the-dip behavior from retail traders and faith in the AI narrative are a key reason why this market just keeps grinding higher; throw in a constant relentless short squeeze and you get daily record highs.

The next big test for the tech-fueled rally comes as a deluge of companies - accounting for almost 15% of the S&P 500’s total market value - report this week. Netflix, General Motors, Coca-Cola and Texas Instruments are among today’s highlights. Of the 60 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, nearly 85% have beaten estimates.

Earnings aside, signs of easing trade tensions between the US and China continue to offer equities further support. Gold, a classic haven, dipped from its latest record ahead of the two sides returning to the negotiating table. Before those talks resume, Trump signed a landmark pact with Australian PM Anthony Albanese to boost America’s access to rare earths and other critical minerals, an effort to counter China’s tight grip on the sector. In other tariff news, small businesses challenging many of Trump’s global levies urged the Supreme Court to affirm lower court rulings that the import levies amount to a massive illegal tax.

Gold slumps, with spot prices falling by $94 to $4,262/oz, though recent precious metals volatility means it’s only hit the lowest since Monday. Silver prices are also slumping and on track for their biggest drop since April.

The selloff reversed in Europe too, with the Stoxx 600 erasing an earlier loss as real estate and utilities shares outperformed, while chemicals and mining shares lagged after prices of gold and silver slumped due to the stronger dollar. Among individual movers in Europe, Eurofins Scientific SE dropped 9% after third-quarter results. Edenred SE jumped as much as 15%, the most on record, after the digital platform for services and payments reported better revenue growth for the third quarter. Assa Abloy AB gained as much as 3.4% after the Swedish lock and entrance systems group reported reassuring results. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

  • Edenred shares rise as much as 15%, the biggest intraday spike on record, after the digital platform for services and payments reported better 3Q revenue growth than anticipated
  • Bper Banca jumped as much as 8% to the highest in 18 years after the Italian lender signed derivative contracts for a synthetic exposure to its own shares equal to 9.99% of its share capital, according to a statement
  • Getinge shares rise as much as 6.8%, to the highest in more than a year, after the Swedish health-care equipment firm reported better-than-expected earnings and sales for the third quarter
  • Assa Abloy gains as much as 3.6% to a fresh high, after the Swedish lock and entrance systems group reported solid and reassuring results
  • Segro shares rise as much as 3.9%, after the property investment and development company said occupier sentiment has improved, leading to the strongest quarter of pre-letting activity since early 202
  • Var Energi shares jump as much as 4.6% after the oil and gas company delivered cashflow and adjusted earnings ahead of expectations, tempered by a miss at the bottom-line
  • Eurofins Scientific shares fall as much as 10%, the most in a year, on continued softness of the French firm’s biopharma division
  • Nordnet falls as much as 8.9%, the most since June 2023 after the Swedish retail trading platform and bank’s third-quarter report missed expectations and revealed a SEK18 million one-time cost related to an administrative error
  • Tele2 shares fall as much as 6.7% after the Swedish telecom operator reported 3Q Ebitda that missed estimates, causing traders to take profits following a strong rally this year
  • OVH Groupe shares slide as much as 19%, the biggest drop in 18 months, after the IT services firm issued growth guidance for fiscal year 2026 that analysts found underwhelming

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks hovered near record-high levels, led by an extended rally in Chinese equities on optimism over a trade deal with the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed after rising about 1% earlier. Alibaba and BHP Group were among the biggest boosts. The CSI 300 Index for mainland shares gained more than 1%.  Japanese stocks were volatile and the yen dropped 0.5% after Sanae Takaichi won a parliamentary vote to become prime minister, opening the way for more fiscal spending. The benchmark Nikkei 225 had nearly hit 50,000 earlier Tuesday, Pictet Asset Management Japan Ltd. head of investment strategy Jumpei Tanaka said, adding that “some profit-taking likely emerged as a reaction to that earlier rally.” Chinese stocks extended their recent rally as anticipation grew over a potential deal ahead of President Donald Trump’s meeting with his counterpart Xi Jinping next week. Trump said said he expects the US to have a “really fair and really great trade deal” with China. Meanwhile, the Fourth Plenum underway in Beijing is being monitored for potential policy boosts. “I think investors feel good about the upcoming US-China trade resolution, against a backdrop of falling rates and structural AI demand growth,” said Vey-Sern Ling, senior equity adviser for Asia technology at Union Bancaire Privee. “There’s a lot to feel comfortable about and not many visible dark clouds on the horizon.”

In FX, the dollar is stronger and gaining against all G-10 peers. The yen is among the underperformers following the appointment of Japan’s new prime minister. The Swiss franc is not far from a decade-high versus the euro on haven flows.

In rates, treasuries are little changed, keeping yields within 1bp of Monday’s closing levels, amid similar price action in European bonds and recently active French-German spreads. The US curve is slightly flatter on the day. US stock index futures are little changed, holding Monday’s 1% advance following constituents’ quarterly results. US 10-year is near 3.97% after dipping as low as 3.96% overnight, underperforming.  There’s small and mixed moves across European bond markets, with bund yields lower at the long-end and little changed at the short. Gilts are rallying at the long-end despite an overshoot on borrowing.

In commodities, oil prices fluctuate, with Brent sitting around $61/barrel. Gold slumps, with spot prices falling by $94 to $4,262/oz, though recent precious metals volatility means it’s only hit the lowest since Monday. Silver prices are also slumping and on track for their biggest drop since April.

The US economic calendar calendar includes October Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity at 8:30am (-22.2, down from -12.3). Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the Oct. 29 Fed policy decision began Saturday

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini unch
  • Nasdaq 100 mini -0.1%
  • Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
  • DAX -0.1%
  • CAC 40 little changed
  • 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 3.97%
  • VIX +0.5 points at 18.72
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1211.97
  • euro -0.2% at $1.1622
  • WTI crude little changed at $57.57/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • USTR Jamieson Greer warned China not to retaliate against foreign companies helping the US to develop critical industries after Beijing sanctioned the American units of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean. BBG
  • BoJ officials see no urgency to hike the benchmark rate next week. The officials believe conditions are coming together for a rate hike as soon as December, but there is no conclusive factor to raise the rate on Oct. 30. BBG
  • US Director of Federal Housing Pulte said the Trump administration is opportunistically evaluating an offering for Freddie and Fannie, which could occur as early as the end of 2025.
  • US Senate Democrats are launching an effort to repeal a portion of Republicans' budget law that exempts certain "orphan drugs" from Medicare price negotiations: Axios
  • Japan’s benchmark Nikkei Stock Average neared the 50,000 mark on Tuesday, as foreign investors bet on the expansionary policies of Sanae Takaichi, who received parliamentary approval the same day to become the country’s first female PM. Nikkei
  • The longest-duration Japanese bonds are attracting relative-value hunters, suggesting there’ll be more flattening of the JGB curve, according to MLIV. BBG
  • Small businesses urged the Supreme Court to affirm lower court rulings that Trump’s global tariffs amount to an illegal tax on American companies to the tune of $3 trillion. BBG
  • The BOE has begun reaching out to financial institutions about conducting stress tests on the private credit market, people familiar said. BBG
  • Republican leaders on Capitol Hill are quietly ramping up talks within their senior ranks and with White House officials over how to structure and advance a potential extension of key Affordable Care Act insurance subsidies before the end of the year. Politico
  • The US Army asked Apollo, Carlyle, KKR and other PE firms to pitch financing models to help fund a $150 billion infrastructure overhaul. FT
  • ZION Q3 earnings report: Core PPNR beat driven by slightly higher NII, while expenses came in below. Credit performance outside of the two identified credits was solid noting that ex these charge off NCOs would have been 4bps. Despite the elevated credit losses in the quarter, ZION noted it anticipates the credit losses are an isolated incident, with further review of the portfolio not showing any incremental credit issues. (H/T GS Fins Trading)

Trade/Tariffs

  • US Trade Representative Greer said they will take action over Nicaragua's labour rights policies and he proposed additional duties of up to 100% on Nicaragua following the conclusion of a Section 301 investigation, while he proposed to suspend all of Nicaragua's benefits under the Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement, either immediately or phased in over 12 months.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks took their cues from the rally on Wall Street as the focus remained on US-China trade with some optimism following US President Trump's comments in which he stated that China has been respectful of them and although he continued to tout a November 1st deadline for additional tariffs, he also reaffirmed that he will be meeting with Chinese President Xi and thinks they will reach a 'fantastic deal'. ASX 200 climbed to a fresh record high with the advances led by the mining and resources sectors after Australia and the US signed a critical minerals agreement, and with mining giant BHP gaining following its quarterly production update. Nikkei 225 rallied and briefly approached to near the 50k level before fading some of the gains, while attention was on the PM vote in parliament where Abe-protege Takaichi was elected to become Japan's first female PM, and which is seen to potentially delay or slow the BoJ hiking rates. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were higher amid the hopes for an improvement in US-China trade relations and with the ongoing plenum where China is to map out its next five-year plan.

Top Asian News

  • Japanese PM Takaichi to speak at 14:00BST.
  • Japanese LDP leader Takaichi won the lower house vote (237 votes out of 465-seats) to become Japan's first female PM, as expected. It was separately reported that Takaichi is to appoint Satsuki Katayama as Finance Minister and Kimi Onoda as Economic Security Minister, while she will appoint Ryosei Akazawa as Trade Minister and Shinjiro Koizumi as Defence Minister, according to FNN.
  • Japan incoming Finance Minister Katayama says it is desirable for FX to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals; no comments at this moment when asked about BoJ hikes.
  • Japan's Finance Minister Katayama says he will continue with efforts to pass on prices and was asked to push forward tax credits with handouts.
  • BoJ is said to be closer to rate hike, but with little need to rush and is said to see no urgency to hike rates next week, according to Bloomberg

European equities (STOXX 600 +0.2%) are mixed and have traded choppy throughout the European morning. A lack of fresh catalysts and quiet stock-specific newsflow has led to indecisive trade so far. European sectors are split down the middle, with no clear out/underperformer today. Real Estate benefits from the relatively lower yield environment, joined closely by Utilities whilst Chemicals lags a touch.

Top European News

  • ECB's Lane says monetary policy transmission is progressing smoothly; makes sense to maintain a meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent approach to assessing the strength of monetary transmission at any given point in time.
  • UK reportedly explores private credit stress tests as risk worries grow, according to Bloomberg.

FX

  • A firm day for the broader Dollar and index, with some suggesting the ease of credit market concerns, and reinforcement by solid Zions Bancorp earnings excluding the fraud losses. Newsflow has been relatively quiet today, whilst on the trade front there is little to update on since Monday, although US President Trump kept a conciliatory tone whilst maintaining the November 1st threat of 100% additional tariffs on China. DXY resides in a 98.50-98.89 range with clean air seen until the 99 psychological level.
  • Subdued trade for the EUR in quiet newsflow with little action seen from ECB commentary as the clock ticks down to next week's ECB confab, with pricing firmly at a hold (98.4% chance). That being said, analysts at ING posit "not all the Governing Council may be entirely comfortable with an even stronger euro, even if direct comments on FX have been rather rare of late." EUR/USD falls further under its 100 DMA (1.1653) and trades in a current 1.1614-1.1655 parameter.
  • USD/JPY holds a firmer bias and moved back to the 151.00 territory amid the fresh record highs in Tokyo stocks, with focus on the parliamentary vote in which LDP leader Takaichi won to become Japan's first female Prime Minister; source reports that the BoJ have no urgency to hike next week will also be weighing on the JPY. Japan's incoming Finance Minister Katayama echoed the outgoing Finance Minister Kato, and said it is desirable for FX to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals; no comments at this moment when asked about BoJ hikes. USD/JPY resides in and at the upper end of a 150.47-151.77 range with the next upside level at the 151.87 mark.
  • Cable marginally softened and breached the 1.3400 level to the downside in the absence of any UK-specific catalysts. Though, action has seemingly been influenced by broader action in the USD in recent trade. The latest PSNB metrics printed shy of expectations, but above the OBR's own view from March; While elevated yields continued to push the borrowing figure higher, that narrative has improved from a Treasury perspective since October 10th. GBP/USD resides in a 1.3372-1.3416 range, with clean air seen until the Oct 15th low at 1.3315.
  • CAD is softer amid USD strength at the time of writing, although Loonie traders look ahead to CPI from the country. The headline is seen unchanged M/M (prev. -0.1%), while the annual rate is seen rising to 2.3% Y/Y from 1.9%. This is the last inflation report before the October BoC meeting.
  • Antipodeans are the G10 laggards amid the cautious risk tone after failing to benefit from the positive risk appetite overnight. NZD/USD is the laggard after slightly softer exports and credit card spending data overnight.

Fixed Income

  • USTs are firmer, moving directionally in-fitting with peers as outlined above. Thus far, to a 113-24 peak but with upside of just a handful of ticks at most. Ahead, the US docket is focused on several pertinent earnings releases and comments from Fed’s Waller; however, the blackout period is in force ahead of the October policy decision.
  • A contained start to the day, with Bunds initially firmer but only by a handful of ticks in a quiet early morning where newsflow was dominated by stock specifics and events in Japan. Since, benchmarks generally but initially OATs derived a bid from a Bloomberg article that BlackRock (BLK) and State Street (STT) have recently stopped using indexes with AA rating criteria as the benchmark, according to sources. Meaning that the firms will continue to be able to hold French debt even after the downgrade by S&P on Friday. This lifted OATs to a 123.29 peak for the season with gains of 17 ticks at most. No reaction to remarks from ECB’s Lane this morning. A speech/text that had some interesting points, but ultimately stuck to familiar lines on EZ monetary policy. Ahead, Lagarde and Nagel are scheduled with a text expected from the President.
  • Gilts are firmer today. The morning’s PSNB data showed a slightly lower borrowing figure than expected, though a touch above the OBR’s view from March, while the prior was subject to a revision lower. For the FY to September 2025, borrowing stood at GBP 99.8bln vs the GBP 92.6bln forecast by the OBR in March. Modest outperformance in Gilts this morning, seemingly a function of the slightly better than expected borrowing view. To a 92.92 peak with gains of 25 ticks at most. If the move continues, resistance from last week factors at 93.02 and 93.17. Ahead, BoE’s Bailey and Breeden appear before the House of Lords; however, as they are discussing reform since 2008, it remains to be seen whether the remarks will factor into the discussion around current policy.
  • JGBs are stronger overnight as markets awaited the parliamentary votes on the next Japanese PM and also acknowledged stronger demand at the latest climate-related auction.
  • Orders for Italy's new 7 year BTP Valore bond reach EUR 6bln since the start of the offer.
  • BlackRock (BLK) and State Street (STT) have recently stopped using indexes with AA rating criteria as the benchmark, via Bloomberg citing sources; this will allow exposure to French debt to be maintained.
  • UK sells GBP 1.5bln 1.5% 2053 Green Gilt: b/c 3.17x (prev. 3.2x), average yield 5.294% (prev. 5.169%), tail 0.8bps (prev. 0.8bps).
  • Germany sells EUR 0.733bln vs exp. EUR 0.75bln 1.30% 2027 Green Bobl and EUR 0.718bln vs exp. EUR 0.75bln 2.50% 2035 Green Bund.

Commodities

  • Crude is currently trading around the unchanged mark, and very much off worst levels, after a recent (albeit fleeting) pick-up in prices. Nothing really driving things at the moment for the complex, as Middle Eastern geopols take a backseat. More focus on Russia-Ukraine, after it was reported that President Trump's plans for a quick meeting with Russian President Putin may be stalled. Brent Dec'25 currently trading towards the upper end of a USD 60.58-61.20/bbl range.
  • Precious metals have been falling as the European session got underway, with spot XAU easing from USD 4,375/oz to a trough of USD 4,244/oz after the yellow metal formed a new ATH late in Monday’s session. XAG has slipped back below USD 50/oz as the precious metal space comes under pressure, but is currently off worst levels.
  • Base metals are slowly falling lower despite a lack of newsflow as markets await the meeting between US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. 3M LME Copper peaked at USD 10.73k/t before falling through Monday’s range and forming a low at USD 10.63k/t.
  • UBS expects oil prices to stabilise around current levels, though prices may come under some pressure should trade tensions escalate further.
  • MMG (1208 HK) says Las Bambas is now expected to achieve copper production of 400k tonnes in 2025 (vs prior guidance of 360k-400k tonnes)

Geopolitics

  • US President Trump's hopes for a quick meeting with Russian President Putin may be stalled, while the anticipated meeting between US Secretary of State Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has been put on hold, according to according to CNN citing a White House official.
  • Russian Foreign Ministry, on the meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rubio being postponed, says you cannot postpone what was never agreed upon, says the meeting requires preparation.
  • Russia's Kremlin says neither US President Trump or Russian President Putin named exact date on the Putin-Trump summit timing. Says they cannot postpone what wasn't scheduled. Both the USA and Russia said that careful preparation was needed which requires time. Peace with Ukraine is not easy.
  • Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov has agreed with US Secretary of State Rubio to continue with phone contact, Russia hasn't change its position since Anchorage, a halt at current frontline means to forget war causes.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am Philly Fed non-mfg Activity
  • Fed’s External Communications Blackout (October 18 - October 30)

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets got the week off to a strong start yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+1.07%) closing within 0.3% of its all-time high, whilst 30yr Treasury yields (-3.6bps) hit a 6-month low of 4.57%. The main catalyst was positive news on the trade side, coupled with signals that the US government shutdown might come to an end soon. Moreover, Brent crude oil prices (-0.46%) hit a 5-month low of $61.01/bbl, which helped to ease concerns about inflation too. So collectively, all those forces served to boost investor optimism, and managed to outweigh any lingering concerns about the regional banks.

In terms of the trade story, we’re now just over 10 days away from President Trump’s deadline to put additional 100% tariffs on China from November 1. But there were increasingly positive headlines that have led investors to expect that the higher tariffs will be avoided. Indeed, President Trump himself said to reporters in the Oval Office that “I think when we finish our meetings in South Korea, China and I will have a really fair and really great trade deal together.” And earlier in the day, NEC Director Kevin Hasset said on CNBC that “Our expectation is that Secretary Bessent is going to land this plane”, when it comes to the China trade negotiations. So that’s led markets to anticipate that some kind of truce will remain in place, and trade-sensitive stocks have continued to recover. Indeed, the Philadelphia semiconductor index (+1.58%) hit a new record yesterday. And if we look at Polymarket, it currently points to just a 10% likelihood that the 100% China tariffs will come into effect by November 1.

Meanwhile on the shutdown, there were also growing hopes for an earlier resolution. That was caused by comments from Kevin Hasset that the shutdown was “likely to end sometime this week”, and there was a clear shift in the Polymarket odds after those comments. For example, when we went to press yesterday, it still suggested there was a 45% likelihood that the shutdown would last beyond November 16, but those have since fallen to 29%. And overall, there is a 49% cumulative likelihood priced in that there will be a resolution by November 3rd. So, there’s been a clear shift in that probability distribution towards an earlier end to the shutdown, which has added to hopes that the regular flow of US data might resume soon. Bear in mind that today is day 21 of the shutdown, which now makes this the joint second-longest along with the 1995-96 shutdown, only behind the most recent 35-day shutdown in 2018-19.

Another positive catalyst came from the regional banks, as Zions Bancorp reported its earnings after the US close last night. Remember that its share price had fallen -13.1% last Thursday after it said it was exposed to alleged fraud, so there’d been a lot of jitters. But altogether, the results were largely positive, and its profits beat estimates despite a $56mn write-down of bad loans in Q3, including $50mn in alleged fraud tied to a CRE investor group. Since Thursday, its share price has recovered +10.7% in the last two sessions (+4.65% yesterday), and its share price rose roughly +3% in after-market trading as well following the results. Remember that we’ve got Western Alliance Bancorp reporting earnings after today’s close as well, but its shares also got a boost after-hours thanks to the positive sentiment from the Zion earnings call.

Ahead of that result, equities had already put in a strong performance on both sides of the Atlantic. The S&P 500 (+1.07%) continued its recovery, with the Magnificent 7 (+1.44%) leading the way, including a very strong performance for Apple (+3.94%) as it hit a new record. The S&P finished just off the highs of the day, and just less than -0.3% beneath its all-time high. Bank stocks also continued to pare back their losses from last Thursday, with the KBW Bank Index (+2.19%) and the KBW Regional Banking Index (+2.27%) both advancing. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+1.03%) closed less than half a percent beneath its own record a couple of weeks ago, with very strong gains for the DAX (+1.80%) and the FTSE MIB (+1.52%). So it was a strong day all round, and futures this morning remain positive, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.05%) and the DAX (+0.19%) both advancing.

Whilst equities saw consistent gains, the picture for sovereign bonds was far more mixed. The US Treasury curve flattened, with a muted move on the front-end. So 2yr yields (-0.2bps) closed very marginally lower at 3.46%, while longer-dated yields fell back further, with the 10yr yield (-2.9bps) falling back beneath 4% to 3.98%, whilst the 30yr yield (-3.6bps) hit a 6-month low of 4.57%. Meanwhile in Europe, French OATs initially underperformed as they reacted to the S&P credit rating downgrade on Friday, with their 10yr yields up +3.5bps in early trading before rallying though the day to ultimately close nearly unchanged (+0.2bps). This was just worse than the -0.3bps drop in German 10yr bund yields. So the Franco-German 10yr spread was ultimately little changed at 78bps as well.

Overnight in Asia, that equity advance has continued, supported by growing investor optimism on US-China trade. Indeed, both Japan’s Nikkei (+0.71%) and South Korea’s KOSPI (+0.19%) are at record highs this morning. And in mainland China, both the CSI 300 (+1.53%) and the Shanghai Comp (+1.20%) have posted even bigger gains this morning.

Lastly, gold prices (+2.46%) closed at another record high yesterday of $4,356/oz, leaving its YTD gains at +66%. So it remains on track for its strongest annual gain since 1979, when it rose +127% as inflation surged after the oil crisis that year. Indeed, the strongest year in the interim was a +31% gain in 2007, and it’s already risen by more than double that this year. Meanwhile, silver prices (+1.02%) closed at $52.45/oz, just shy of last week’s levels, taking its own YTD gains to +81%, the strongest since an +83% annual increase in 2010.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the UK public finances for September, and Canada’s CPI for September. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Lane, Escriva, Kocher and Nagel. Lastly, today’s earnings releases include Western Alliance Bancorp, Netflix, General Electric, Coca-Cola and General Motors.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 08:42

Vance Leads Newsom In Head-To-Head 2028 Matchup: Poll

Zero Hedge -

Vance Leads Newsom In Head-To-Head 2028 Matchup: Poll

Although the 2028 U.S. presidential race is just over three years away, betting markets are already sizing up candidates’ odds, including ineligible candidates like current U.S. President Donald Trump and Elon Musk.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, shows the current implied probabilities for the candidates of the 2028 U.S. Presidential election based on Polymarket data as of October 14, 2025.

2028 U.S. President Front-Runners: J.D. Vance vs. Gavin Newsom

Current U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance currently has the highest odds of being elected 2028 U.S. President at 28%, followed by Governor of California Gavin Newsom at 23%.

The data table below shows each candidate’s odds of winning according to Polymarket’s trading data, as of October 14, 2025. Not every candidate below 3% odds is included in the data table and visualization:

Following the two front-runners is congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with 7% odds, with the politician with the next-highest odds being current U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 3.5%.

An unexpected outsider with higher odds than Marco Rubio is Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson with 4.3% odds, who showcases the United States’ fascination with celebrity outsiders in politics.

Outliers and Ineligible Candidates

Along with unexpected outliers like ‘The Rock’, there are other candidates betting markets are considering who are currently ineligible.

Donald Trump, already serving two Presidential terms by 2028, still garners 3.3% odds—a reflection of his enduring influence over Republican voters.

Two of Donald Trump’s children, Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump, are among the eligible candidates who have slim chances at 1.3% and 1.9% respectively.

Elon Musk also appears with 1.1% odds despite being foreign-born and thus barred from the U.S. presidency.

To learn more about U.S. politics, check out this graphic showing the age of every U.S. Democratic senator on Voronoi, the new app by Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 07:45

Rare Earths Stocks Soar After Mega US-Australia Minerals Deal To Slash Dependence On China

Zero Hedge -

Rare Earths Stocks Soar After Mega US-Australia Minerals Deal To Slash Dependence On China

President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed a minerals deal on Monday at the White House to expand America's rare earth supply and diversify away from China's dominance in critical minerals used in EVs, semiconductors, and defense weapons. Beijing's weaponization of rare earth shipments (read Goldman's latest brief) to gain leverage over President Trump in trade negotiations underscores the urgency of diversification.

"In about a year from now, we'll have so much critical minerals and rare earths that you won't know what to do with them," President Trump said at the White House on Monday with PM Albanese. 

PM Albanese told the press that the U.S. and Australia will each invest over $1 billion within six months, targeting an $8.5 billion pipeline of joint mining and processing projects. 

He noted that Australia has an $8.5 billion "pipeline that we have ready to go.

The new minerals deal aims to diversify away from China, which has tightened export controls on rare earths and metals like gallium, germanium, and antimony

Following the signing of the deal:

  • Arafura Rare Earths Ltd. jumped up to 29% after the U.S. Export-Import Bank considered $300 million in financing for its Nolans project, alongside $100 million in conditional Australian government funding.

  • The Ex-Im Bank also issued letters of interest totaling $2.2 billion to six other miners, including VHM Ltd. (+30%) and Northern Minerals Ltd. (+19%).

  • Alcoa Corp. gained as much as 9.6% after its gallium joint venture with Sojitz received up to $200 million in equity funding.

  • Lynas Rare Earths Ltd., not yet a beneficiary, rose briefly 4.7%, while Iluka Resources Ltd. gained 9.1%.

"This is the most significant bilateral minerals cooperation we have seen between two major Western countries," Gracelin Baskaran, director of the Critical Minerals Security Program for CSIS, told Bloomberg by phone, adding, "Today's announcement really shows the U.S. isn't trying to address critical minerals alone. It's looking to find the right partners."

Analysts at Canaccord Genuity said the minerals deal "includes the use of economic policy tools and investment to support the supply of raw and processed critical minerals/rare earths, and accelerate the development of diversified, liquid, and fair markets.

President Trump is leading the effort - a national security one - to diversify away from China because these critical minerals are used in defense weapons.

In the U.S., we've been focused on popular rare earth stocks like USA Rare Earths (USAR) and MP Materials (MP), as the Pentagon quietly ramps up its billion-dollar mineral stockpiling spree. 

Recall that on July 11th, we wrote "The Coming Rare Earth Revolution And How to Profit" for our premium subscribers.

Eighteen months ago, we wrote in a note titled "Next Big Mineral Trade Revealed by Morgan Stanley" that MP Materials is the "one company that stands to benefit" from restoring America's rare earth supply chain. 

Rebuilding America's supply chains and diversifying away from China will ensure the U.S. is prepared for not just the 2030s but also the world fracturing into a bipolar state. Remember, the whole posturing now is called "Hemispheric Defense".

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 07:20

Severe Mpox Virus Strain Possibly Spreading In LA County, Officials Warn

Zero Hedge -

Severe Mpox Virus Strain Possibly Spreading In LA County, Officials Warn

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Health officials said that three cases of a rare strain of mpox, or monkeypox, were confirmed in California and that they are investigating whether the virus is spreading locally.

The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health said in a statement on Oct. 17 that it is “investigating the possibility of a local spread of Clade I mpox cases after confirming its second case in an adult with no recent travel to regions where this virus is typically found,” adding that the person was hospitalized and is now at home and recovering.

Los Angeles County Health Officer Dr. Muntu Davis said in a statement that officials have “concerns about possible local spread in Los Angeles County” after the three cases were confirmed.

We’re working closely with our partners to identify potential sources and understand how this potentially more serious type of the mpox virus may be spreading,” Davis said.

The cases of Clade I mpox confirmed in Los Angeles County are the first in the United States to be diagnosed without any known prior travel exposure. The strain, which is considered more deadly, has been spreading in the Democratic Republic of Congo and other African countries over the past few years.

Three days before the statement from Los Angeles County, the City of Long Beach said in a statement that it confirmed one case of Clade I mpox in a Long Beach resident who had no prior travel history. Long Beach is located in Los Angeles County but has its own health agency.

“While the overall risk of mpox clade I exposure to the public remains low, we are taking this very seriously and ensuring our community and health care partners remain vigilant so we can prevent any more cases,” Long Beach Mayor Rex Richardson said in the statement. “This underscores the importance of continued surveillance, early response, and vaccination.”

The risk to the public is low, said officials.

The first Clade I detection was also in California, occurring last November, according to the state health department.

Mpox is a rare disease caused by infection with a virus that is in the same family as the one that causes smallpox. It is endemic in parts of Africa.

Milder symptoms can include fever, chills, and body aches. In more serious cases, people can develop lesions on the face, hands, chest, and genitals.

One version of the virus, called Clade II, was the source of an international health crisis in 2022 as infections escalated in dozens of countries, mostly among males who have sex with other males. At one point, the United States was averaging close to 500 cases per day.

Long Beach health officials noted that Clade I may be more severe than the other variant and said that vaccines for mpox are available.

The California Department of Public Health issued a warning on Oct. 17 that the disease may be spreading in the state and is “primarily impacting communities of gay and bisexual men.”

As we continue to monitor the situation, it is crucial for Californians to stay informed and take preventive measures, especially persons who are more likely to be exposed to mpox,” Assistant State Public Health Officer Rita Nguyen said in a statement.

“Clade I mpox cases can be severe. Risk of severe disease and hospitalization are highest for people with weakened immune systems, so it’s critical to protect yourself by getting both doses of the mpox vaccine if you or your sex partner(s) may be at risk for mpox.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 06:30

64% Of Rwanda Politicians Are Women; Just 4% In Nigeria

Zero Hedge -

64% Of Rwanda Politicians Are Women; Just 4% In Nigeria

Data from the Inter-Parliamentary Union shows the extent to which differences in gender equality in parliament exist between countries, with only four nations currently representing an even or almost even 50:50 split of men to women in their lower house of parliament. These are Andorra, Mexico, Bolivia and the United Arab Emirates.

Meanwhile, as Statista's Anna Fleck details belowthere are only three countries worldwide with a higher ratio of women to men. These are Rwanda (63.8 percent share of women), Cuba (55.7 percent) and Nicaragua (55.0 percent).

 Who’s Leading the Race Towards Parliamentary Gender Parity? | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

A look at selected countries shows that gender parity in parliaments is lagging behind in European nations as well as in the United States, where only around 29 percent of House members where women most recently.

In Europe, Scandinavian nations lead, like Sweden at 45 percent, Finland at 45.5 percent and Iceland at 46 percent. Spain follows suit with 44.3 percent.

Lowlights in Europe include Hungary at 15.2 percent, Bosnia and Herzegovina at 19.1 percent and Bulgaria at 21.3 percent.

However, Germany is not far ahead at 32.4 percent.

Globally, Nigeria was among the countries with the lowest female participation in parliament at 4.2 percent.

Sri Lanka, Syria, Iran and Algeria all stayed below 10 percent. 

India reached 13.8 percent. The country is scheduled to up representation to 33 percent after its next census towards the end of the decade.

Japan stood at a slightly improved 15.7 percent, but still towards the bottom of the ranking.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 05:45

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