NATO Jets Scrambled Over Lithuania After Russian Aircraft Breach Airspace

NATO member Lithuania on Thursday alleged that a pair of Russian jets violated its sovereign airspace, in what the government quickly condemned as a breach the country's territorial integrity.

"This evening, Russian military planes violated Lithuanian air space. This is a blatant breach of international law and territorial integrity of Lithuania," the country's President Gitanas Nauseda said in a statement.

Illustrative file image via AP

Alluding to recent EU plans to create a joint aerial defense and drone shield to protect European airspace from Russian incursions, he added: "Once again, it confirms the importance of strengthening European air defense readiness."

Nauseda further announced that his foreign ministry will be summoning Russian diplomatic representatives, to lodge formal protest against the "reckless and dangerous behavior".

Lithuania's military said it scrambled jets in response to the brief incursion. It said:

Today, Russian military aircraft briefly entered Lithuanian airspace. Our forces acted quickly with NATO jets on patrol. Lithuania remains strong and ready. Every inch of our country is protected.

Initial reports say that two Russian military planes violated the airspace for a mere 18-seconds.

Baltic and Eastern European countries, including Poland, have for several weeks been complaining of Russian aerial incursions. This month Denmark hosted a summit where a 'drone wall' was the focus:

Fortified by intense security measures after a wave of drone incursions above airports and sensitive sites, two high-stakes summits in the Danish capital offered a mounting sense of collective clarity — and a possible solution that sounds like science fiction: a “drone wall.”

“There is only one country that are willing to threaten us, and it is Russia,” Danish President Mette Frederiksen told reporters on Wednesday, adding that Europe was in the middle of a “hybrid war.”

“I think we are in the most difficult and dangerous situation since the end of the Second World War,” she added. “I want us to rearm. I want us to buy more capabilities. I want us to innovate more.”

Likely Thursday's event happened off Lithuania's coast over the Baltic Sea, where Russian and NATO planes frequently patrol.

Via BBC

The biggest recent incidents involved many drones entering Poland, followed by a late September incident over Estonia which saw three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets allegedly entered Estonian skies "without permission and remained there for a total of 12 minutes," according to a government statement at the time.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/23/2025 - 14:25

Insane Mafia-Linked NBA Gambling Scandal Erupts; Terry Rozier, Chauncey Billups Arrested Among Dozens Of Alleged Riggers

What we know:

• Terry Rozier, Chauncey Billups and Damon Jones have been arrested 

• The years-long investigation spanning 11 states has resulted in over 30 arrests

• The Bonnano, Gambino and Genovese organized crime families were allegedly involved as enforcers, taking a cut of the winnings

• There was an alleged robbery at gunpoint to obtain a rigged shuffling machine, along with extortions

• Defendants laundered their proceeds through cash exchanges, multiple shell companies, and cryptocurrency transfers

• Rozier allegedly manipulated betting results by leaving a game early

Terry Rozier (photo: Reggie Hildred, Imagn Images)

Over 30 people have been indicted after an FBI investigation uncovered an explosive gambling scandal rocking the NBA. 

Legendary Portland Trail Blazers coach Chauncey Billups, Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier and former NBA player Damon Jones were all arrested as part of the investigation into illegal gambling operations that included x-ray tables that read cards, special contact lenses, rigged shuffling machines and more - swindling people out of 'tens of millions of dollars.'

Billups was charged in connection with an illegal poker operation tied to 'la costa nostra,' according to the FBI, while Rozier allegedly manipulated his performance during an NBA game to sway betting results. 

New York FBI Assistant Director Christopher Raia says that Trail Blazers head coach and NBA Hall of Famer Chauncey Billups was used by the Italian mafia to attract poker players who would then play rigged games with x-ray technology. pic.twitter.com/YQzZMQ6MoD

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) October 23, 2025

According to the NY Post:

Rozier is one of the six defendants in the NBA-related investigation, each of whom was charged with conspiracy to commit wire fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering, per Nocella.

His specific allegations tie back to a March 23, 2023 contest against the Pelicans when Rozier exited after playing the first 9:36 and did not return due to a foot issue in what would be his final tilt of the season.

He tallied five points, four rebounds, two assists and one steal in that time, and one X user posted at the time how they allegedly had been tipped off that Rozier would exit early.

That knowledge would affect prop betting, where gamblers bet on a player’s statistics for a game.

An “unexpected” amount of bets came in on Rozier’s Under for that game, per ESPN, which resulted in some sportsbooks preventing further wagers on his prop lines.

The NBA investigated the issue and did not punish Rozier.

In a Thursday statement, the NBA announced that Rozier and Billups were being place on immediate leave.

"We are in the process of reviewing the federal indictments announced today.  Terry Rozier and Chauncey Billups are being placed on immediate leave from their teams, and we will continue to cooperate with the relevant authorities.  We take these allegations with the utmost seriousness, and the integrity of our game remains our top priority."

Riggers And The Mafia

According to US Attorney Joseph Nocella, Jr., the scheme had deep mafia ties involving Billups going back to 2019, with defendants being accused of using wireless cheating technology in their rigged games in places including the Hamptons, Miami, Las Vegas and Manhattan. Members of the Bonnano, Gambino and Genevese organized crime families have been fingered in the indictment - taking a cut of the rigged games and enforcing the collection of debts. 

Trail Blazers coach Chauncey Billups during the team’s first game on Wednesday. AP

Victims were promised the chance to gamble alongside NBA greats - with the former pro athletes known as 'face cards' while the victims were referred to as 'fish,' according to Nocella. 

"What the victims, the fish, didn’t know, is that everybody else at the poker game, from the dealer to the players – including the face cards – were in on the scam," said Nocella. "Once the game was underway, the defendants fleeced the victims out of tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars per game."

How they pulled it off

According to the FBI, the alleged fraud included self-shuffling machines that had "been secretly altered in order to read the cards on the deck, predict which player on the table had the best poker hand, and relay the information to an offsite operator," said Nocella, adding "The offsite operator sent the information via cell phone back to a co-conspirator at the table and that person at the table was known as the 'quarterback.' The 'quarterback' then signaled secretly the information he had received to others at the table and together they used that information in order to win their games and to cheat the victims."

The scheme also allegedly used poker chip tray analyzers, special contact lenses or glasses that can read pre-marked cards, and an X-ray table that can read face down cards on the table. 

"The fraud is mind-boggling. … We’re talking about tens of millions of dollars in fraud and theft and robbery across a multi-years investigation," said FBI Director Kash Patel, while Nocella called the case involving Rozier "one of the most brazen sports corruption schemes since online sports betting became widely legalized in the United States. This scheme is an insider sports betting conspiracy that exploited confidential information about National Basketball Association athletes and teams."

Nocella said the indictment that led to the arrest of Billups, Jones and more than 30 people overall involved "a nationwide scheme to rig illegal poker games. These defendants ... used high-tech cheating technology to steal millions of dollars from victims in underground poker games that were secretly fixed.”

Billups was arrested in Oregon on Thursday morning, one day after a season-opening loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Rozier was also arrested Thursday morning at a hotel in Orlando, Florida, where the Heat lost their season opener to the Magic. Rozier did not play in the game due to a coach's decision. Billups, Rozier and Jones are expected to make a court appearance later Thursday, according to a Justice Department spokesperson. -USA Today

Meanwhile, the Post reports that former Pistons guard Malik Beasley came under investigation by a US District Attorney's Office regarding allegations regarding gambling on games and prop betting, while a source told the outlet in August that he's still a subject in a federal probe. 

*  *  * Please stop buying creatine, we have like 30 jars left

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/23/2025 - 13:20

GLD Loses Its Shine: What's Next After This Volatility Trap

Submitted by SpotGamma

It seemed like gold just could not lose in 2025. GLD – the largest gold ETF – had surged over 30% in just two months as traders flocked in, driven by inflation concerns and tariff headlines. Spot gold found itself well beyond the $4,000/oz milestone for the first time ever during this rally, fueled by both institutional and retail interest.

Beneath the shiny surface, the options market sounded a more ominous note: volatility was exploding. Traders bid up calls to capitalize on the momentum, while they also bought up puts to hedge against downside. This psychology is as old as markets: fear of missing out collides with fear of loss.

For GLD, these dynamics created a volatility trap where both call and put options had become absurdly expensive.

When the correction finally arrived, it came fast: GLD crashed 6.4% in a single session on Tuesday, October 21. This marked the largest single-day price decline since April 2013.

Free Webinar: Save Your Spot Now

Normally, significant drops cause volatility to spike. Yet as GLD sold off, volatility dropped hard — especially for downside puts.

The morning of October 21, SpotGamma Founder laid out this exact scenario - ahead of the drop: “This is clearly a ‘stock up, vol up’ paradigm… vol is likely to contract if/when gold prices contract.”

What makes this a volatility trap? Extremely expensive option prices force traders to make a difficult choice, should they choose to play the game: either pay heavily for premium, or risk being short options by betting against volatility.

If a trader bought puts during the frothy GLD rally, they could actually see their position lose value despite a major drop in the underlying asset.

Using SpotGamma’s new Options Calculator, you now can visualize this exact phenomena in action to see how volatility can make or break a successful trade:

This calculator combines the impact of volatility, time, and price to model your PnL through expiration, so you can see the forces impacting your positions.

As Monday’s market action revealed, even gold can lose its shine when facing a volatility trap. And as a trader, you need to stay aware of how vol shifts can take a bite out of your position. Because if you trade options, you are trading volatility.

GLD is just one example of volatility dynamics at play, and as a trader you need to pay attention to the hidden forces that affect your PnL.

To understand how volatility drives your PnL, SpotGamma is hosting Hidden Forces Unmasked on October 28. Sign up now for this FREE live event and get access to multiple deep dive sessions plus exclusive access to five new SpotGamma tools.

Save my spot

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/23/2025 - 13:05

Tonight: Debt Debate - Addressing The $38 Trillion Elephant In The Room

Tonight at 7 pm ET, ZeroHedge and George Gammon (of the Rebel Capitalist show) are hosting a debate over America’s mounting public debt - which now sits at over $38 trillion - and what to do about it.

Our debaters bring two sharply opposing solutions, while Gammon, a self-described anti-government capitalist, moderates this high-stakes debate over how (or whether) the U.S. can navigate its way through record public debt. 

Michael Green (Simplify Asset Management): The Keynesian-Growth Case

Green argues that persistent fiscal deficits aren’t a threat but a catalyst. In his view, government spending fuels innovation, productivity, and human progress - allowing growth to outpace obligations.

By extending credit today, America can build the wealth and technology that make tomorrow’s debt affordable. 

Key question: Can the nation truly grow its way out of debt, or is that faith misplaced in a slowing world?

Listen to Green explain the virtue of delayed economic pain (about 30 seconds from the marked timestamp):

Patrick Newman (Mises Institute): The case for Default

Newman takes the opposite view: sovereign debt isn’t just risky - it’s immoral. He contends that borrowing today to pay with future taxes amounts to coercion and corruption, a system of privilege that rewards insiders while punishing citizens. His solution is radical honesty - repudiate the debt and dismantle the leviathan state.

Newman’s book Cronyism: Liberty versus Power in Early America takes aim at how even the Founding Fathers helped entrench this exploitative model.

When & Where:

Date: Tonight
Time: 7 pm ET
Platform: Live on the ZeroHedge homepage, X, YouTube & Rumble

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/23/2025 - 12:45

Trump Hopes For 'Deal On Everything' In China Talks

Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump expressed optimism on Wednesday about securing deals with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on issues ranging from soybeans to rare earths and limiting nuclear weapons during scheduled talks next week in South Korea.

“I think we‘ll make a deal,” Trump told reporters gathered in the Oval Office for a visit by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

“We’ll make a deal on, I think, everything.”

“We'll have a pretty long meeting scheduled,” Trump said.

“We can work out a lot of our questions and our doubts and our tremendous assets together. So we look forward to that.”

Trump said he believes Xi now wants to end the war in Ukraine, and that the Chinese leader would be receptive to such a discussion.

“Because of Biden and Obama, they got forced together,” Trump said of China and Russia.

“They should never have been forced together but by nature, they can’t be friendly. I hope they are friendly frankly but they can’t be.

“Biden did that and Obama did that. They forced them together because of energy, because of oil,” Trump said, noting that was one of the issues he planned to discuss with Xi.

“I think I‘ll probably be talking about it. What I’ll really be talking to him about is how do we end the war with Russia and Ukraine, whether it’s through oil or energy or anything else. And I think he’s going to be very receptive.”

The U.S. president also said he expected to discuss with Beijing many other issues, from China resuming U.S. soybean purchases to including China on talks with Russia to limit nuclear weapons.

He noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin had raised the prospect of a bilateral de-escalation of nuclear weapons, and China could be added to that effort.

On rare earths, Trump said he wasn’t too concerned about China’s recent announcement of export controls on nearly all rare earth, calling it “a disturbance” to which he responded with additional tariffs of 100 percent.

Those are not due to take effect until Nov. 1 if an agreement can’t be reached.

Trump has sent conflicting messages about the Xi meeting in recent days, telling reporters on Tuesday that it might not happen. This comes amid reports of a power struggle between Xi and other factions within the Chinese Communist Party leadership structure and the Chinese military.

Asia Tour

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer traveled ahead of Trump on Wednesday, with their first stop in Malaysia to meet with Chinese officials over tensions regarding the rare earth export bans. Earlier in the month, Trump also responded with threats to bar “critical software“ exports to China.

“This is China versus the globe. It’s not just on the U.S.,” Bessent told Fox Business Network’s “Kudlow” program. “This licensing regime that they’ve proposed is unworkable and unacceptable,” he said of China’s rare earth threats.

He said the United States and its Western allies were contemplating how to respond if they were unable to negotiate a pause in Beijing’s plans or some other relief, but gave no details.

“I’m hoping that we can get this ironed out this weekend so that the leaders can enter their talks on a more positive note,” he said.

Trump is scheduled to travel to Kuala Lumpur for a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that begins on Sunday, before making a stop in Japan to meet with their new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi.

He will then travel to South Korea ahead of a leaders’ summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum that is being held Oct. 31-Nov. 1 in Gyeongju.

Greer and Bessent have both stressed they do not want to decouple from China or escalate the situation, but insist the United States needs to rebalance trade with China after decades of very limited access to Chinese markets.

Greer told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that China still has unfulfilled obligations to buy U.S. agricultural and manufactured goods under a trade deal signed during Trump’s first term as president.

“The U.S. has always been quite open to the Chinese, and it’s really been driven by Chinese policies that exclude U.S. companies and drive overcapacity and overproduction in China. None of that works for the United States,” he said. “We can’t live that way anymore, so we need an alternative path.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/23/2025 - 12:25

Markets Are Trading As If Every Escalation Automatically De-Escalates

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Everything until now has been a warm-up

As we head deeper into Q4 there is a natural tendency to think about the end of an exhausting year. However, there is a very high probability that the whirlwind of crazy headlines so far in 2025 have just been a warm-up for what is yet to come. After all, the Trump admin is still laying the foundations for a new US and global economy; the reactions to it are at the same stage; the nth order effects haven’t even begun to be felt. However, some of the first pillars are going up.

The Wall Street Journal reports the US has lifted a key restriction on Ukraine’s use of European long-range Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia, a major red line for Moscow. Trump immediately called the story “FAKE NEWS”, yet the story says, “The unannounced US move to enable Kyiv to use the missile in Russia comes after authority for supporting such attacks was recently transferred from Defence Secretary Hegseth to the top US general in Europe, General Grynkewich." Either the journalists’ chain of comms is wrong or the one between the White House and the Pentagon is - of as vast significance as an attack on Russia using Storm Shadows.

In tandem, the US sanctioned Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil for the first time, a major economic statecraft escalation that has seen oil prices move around 4% higher in response. That’s as a third European refinery that handles Russian oil, in Bratislava, Slovakia, went up in flames days after ones in Romania and Hungary. That cannot be a coincidence.

Against this backdrop, Putin just oversaw a readiness test of Russia's nuclear forces. Europe and the UK may be working on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire option to offer to Trump and Putin, but the real muscles are being flexed elsewhere (or inside Europe by others).

Trump also threatened Spain again for refusing to spend 5% of GDP on defence.

In the Middle East, a new US plan is to split Gaza into two zones, one controlled by Israel and the other by Hamas until it can be disarmed. The former zone will get rapid reconstruction and financial aid from the Saudis and UAE - though PM Netanyahu made clear no Turkish troops will be allowed. Market threats from the region have receded, though Iranian attempts to restart their nuclear plans still linger on. Broader US-backed opportunities may soon arise.

In LatAm, ‘Trump beats the drums of war for direct action in Venezuela’, says the Washington Post, as “some see the ultimate goal as toppling President Maduro.” The US just widened its campaign against alleged drug boats with a strike on the Pacific side of the continent; and if Russian energy is going to be throttled, Venezuela’s looks even more attractive. Meanwhile, the FT says investors are betting on Argentine peso devaluation after this weekend’s elections, with forward contracts indicating a 12% drop despite the $40bn US support package.

The US is considering broad software curbs on China. That would escalate their trade dispute, which becomes a war 1 November when tariffs hit 155%. Markets are trading as if every escalation automatically de-escalates. There is logic to that, but it isn’t a natural law.

Indeed, the South China Morning Post notes ‘As China’s leaders chart the next 5-year plan, they hear echoes from long ago’, where “Growing geopolitical challenges of today resemble those faced in the 1950s as Beijing seeks to navigate a complex new security landscape.” If you think the 1950s was an era in which China de-escalated ‘because markets’, then you really don’t know anything about the place at all.

The same paper notes ‘US fuels brain drain to China with Trump’s anti-science ‘Cultural Revolution’’ as “Chinese-American researchers are finding similarities with chaotic period under Mao Zedong that targeted intellectuals in China’. That’s as Harvard slashes its Ph.D. admission slots rather than firing huge numbers of its own recently hired and highly-paid non-academic admin staff.

With rumors that a US-India trade deal will be struck by end-month, where US tariffs will fall to 15% from 50% and India buy more energy and non-GMO agri, we have an official indication today that Delhi may buy more oil: we have to wait and see about the rest, which would be extremely significant in many contexts.

The US is talking to South Korea about the $350bn investment it pledged with its trade deal. Rather than offering it a dollar swapline, which Seoul had suggested might be needed, the focus is instead on getting the right mix of FDI, loans, and guarantees. This will be the template for Japan (where new PM Takaichi is saying she will buy more US pick-ups, soybeans, and LNG), the Middle East, and Europe. For Australia it’s easier: superfunds are going to invest $1 trillion Stateside by 2035, putting a vast chunk of non-property retirement cash in US hands and ensuring Down Under understands what’s going down, geopolitically.

In Europe, an apt snapshot of France in 2025 is that the Louvre’s surveillance cameras apparently pointed the wrong way, allowing the French crown jewels to be stolen. Equally, the museum’s director offered to resign but Macron refused to accept it: Carry On France. And in Germany, VW is stopping production of some product lines next week and reportedly being short up to €11bn due to Chinese competition, as Airbus opens a new assembly line… in China. Meanwhile, Von der Leyen gave another Gaullist speech about green tech, pledging:

• To introduce a “made in Europe” criteria for public procurement worth 14% of EU GDP: that’s a huge non-tariff barrier.
• To ensure new FDI is “truly in Europe's interest”, not for others or elsewhere: but what about outbound FDI?
• Stepped up support for some strategic sectors to say “You are critical to Europe's future. And your future will be made in Europe. That is critical for us.”: but does this mean tariffs and subsidies?

That was as the EU was forced to plan immediate changes to its sustainability law requiring firms operating there to address human rights and environmental issues in their supply chains or face fines of 5% of global turnover following the US and Qatar making clear their vital LNG exports to Europe would be at risk under that legislation. “Strategic autonomy” anyone?

Meanwhile, after the last surprising set of budget data, US Treasury analysis finds the country is on course to narrow its fiscal deficit ahead - though that projection clashes with IMF estimates.

That possibility, plus the picture of higher geopolitical tensions on multiple fronts, upside risks to energy prices, worries over a US-China trade war choking off dollar flows to it with a lag, massive inward investment into the US from multiple sources, bubble warnings from key figures, and the looming change at the helm in the Fed all point to markets primed for significant volatility ahead – and not necessarily on the easy-to-follow path seen in 2025 so far. Indeed, even gold was down for a third day yesterday, though it held the key $4,000 level.

Like I said, in a great many respects we are just getting warmed up.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/23/2025 - 11:45

"War On Crypto Is Over": Trump Pardons Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao

Two weeks ago we reported on rumors that The White House was considering pardoning Changpeng Zhao, the former CEO of Binance better known as 'CZ'.

And today, The Wall Street Journal reports, according to people familiar with the matter, that Trump has indeed pardoned CZ following months of efforts by Zhao to boost the Trump family’s own crypto company.

The company has spent nearly a year pursuing a pardon for Zhao, who left prison in September 2024 after serving a four-month sentence for related charges.

Earlier this year, the company hired lobbyist Ches McDowell to help pursue a pardon, the Journal previously reported.

Zhao, once among the most influential figures in the digital asset world, served time following a plea deal with the U.S. Department of Justice in 2023 that included a money-laundering conviction and $4.3 billion in fines for Binance. 

Zhao’s 2023 conviction marked one of the most high-profile cases in the government’s campaign against major exchanges. 

U.S. prosecutors accused Binance of allowing illicit transactions with sanctioned entities and failing to implement proper anti-money-laundering controls. CZ pleaded guilty, stepped down as CEO, and paid a personal fine of $50 million.

Zhao served a four-month prison sentence. He was sentenced in April 2024 and released in September 2024, after spending time in a low-security federal prison in California and then a halfway house.

Despite this, even critics of Binance have questioned whether the criminal charges were proportionate. Trump’s team reportedly sees Zhao’s situation as an opportunity to demonstrate a “new era” of crypto policy — one that favors innovation over punishment.

But according to several sources familiar with the matter, many within Trump’s inner circle viewed the case as politically motivated - a hallmark of what they describe as the Biden administration’s broader crackdown on crypto.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that Trump had “exercised his constitutional authority by issuing a pardon for Mr. Zhao, who was prosecuted by the Biden Administration in their war on cryptocurrency.”

She added:

“The Biden Administration’s war on crypto is over.”

The Wall Street Journal makes a point of highlighting the fact that Since Trump’s election, Binance has also been a key supporter of his family’s World Liberty Financial crypto venture, a business that has driven a huge leap in the president’s personal wealth.

Zhao remains Binance’s largest individual shareholder, and the pardon could clear the way for his formal return to the exchange, which he founded in 2017 and grew into the world’s largest Bitcoin and crypto trading platform.

A Trump pardon for CZ marks not only a personal vindication for Zhao, but could also be somewhat of a political statement: Trump signaling that the world’s most powerful government is truly open for Bitcoin business.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/23/2025 - 11:30

Trump Now 'Fully On Warpath With Russia' With Oil Sanctions, Medvedev Says

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev and close Putin-ally has blasted President Donald Trump's new sanctions against Russia's oil giants as an "act of war" which puts the United States on the direct warpath with Russia.

"The US is our enemy, and their talkative 'peacemaker' has now fully embarked on the warpath with Russia," Medvedev, who serves as a top Russian national security official, said. "The decisions taken are an act of war against Russia. And now Trump has fully aligned himself with loony Europe," he emphasized in the statement.

Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia's two biggest oil companies, were slapped with US Treasury sanctions along with dozens of their subsidiaries, resulting in global oil prices to rise by 3% on Thursday. Further repercussions have included India, the largest importer of Russian oil, but mull cutting its purchases.

Trump has frequently said the "war should have never started" and that it's Joe Biden's fault, but Medvedev took the Republican president to task on this also, per Russian state media:

He argued that Trump had likely been pressured by both domestic and international hawks into taking a hardline stance, rather than acting out of ideological conviction as was the case with his predecessor, Joe Biden. “But now it’s his conflict,” Medvedev concluded, adding that Russia must focus on achieving its objectives militarily rather than through negotiations.

"Of course they'll say he couldn't do otherwise, that he was pressured in Congress, etc.," Medvedev did concede in the statement. 

Still, it remains there's no clear evidence that the Trump administration has ever brought real pressure to bear on its ally Zelensky to make key territorial concessions and to permanently reject the idea of ever joining NATO.

Instead, Trump has allowed long-range attacks inside Russia, and has even authorized intelligence help for the Ukrainians to attack energy sites deep into Russia.

With these escalations under the Trump White House, Medvedev is arguing that Trump now 'owns' the grinding conflict, also after the White House made clear the Budapest summit with Putin is not going to happen.

That’s another example of how detached from the reality they are :

New sanctions will force Russia to come to the negotiating table – Rutte

The NATO Secretary General is confident that new US sanctions against Russian companies will help force Putin to meet with Zelensky.

"A… pic.twitter.com/bkMaB9LbU5

— Dagny Taggart (@DagnyTaggart963) October 23, 2025

"I don’t want to have a wasted meeting," Trump had said earlier this week. "I don’t want to have a waste of time, so we’ll see what happens." The Kremlin had also said, "preparation is needed, serious preparation" before a meeting comes to fruition.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/23/2025 - 11:20

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.06 million SAAR in September

Excerpt:

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Sales were up 4.1% year-over-year compared to September 2024. This was the easiest year-over-year comparison.
...
On an NSA basis for the month of September, this was 11% above the low for housing bust for the month of September that happened in September 2010. Year-to-date, sales are down 0.2% NSA.

There is much more in the article.

Democrats Exhibit Amnesia About Biden-Era Lawfare

Authored by Kenin M. Spivak via RealClearPolitics,

Democrats who denounce federal indictments of former FBI Director James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James as unprecedented weaponization of the Justice Department exhibit amnesia about the norm-eviscerating, undemocratic lawfare they launched during the Biden administration.

A federal grand jury in Virginia indicted Comey last month for lying to Congress and obstructing a congressional proceeding by “willfully and knowingly” lying to the Senate Judiciary Committee when he testified that he had not “authorized someone else at the FBI to be an anonymous source in news reports” concerning the FBI’s 2016 investigation of Hillary Clinton’s use of private email for confidential information.

A 2018 inspector general report suggests that the main factual dispute may be whether Comey authorized, or was merely informed of, the leaks.

Documents published by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, CIA director John Ratcliffe, and Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley show that while serving as Barak Obama’s FBI director and then Trump’s first FBI director, Comey used the Steele dossier, which he knew to be unsubstantiated Clinton campaign disinformation, to obtain warrants to spy on the Trump campaign, doctor an intelligence assessment to falsely claim the purpose of Russian interference in the 2016 election was to benefit Trump, and entrap Trump National Security Advisor Michael Flynn.

Grassley also issued reports establishing that Comey gave Clinton special treatment during the investigation of her emails and intended to exonerate her even before her FBI interview.

This month, Letitia James was indicted for filing a fraudulent mortgage application that described an investment property she was purchasing in Norfolk, Virginia, as her second home. By doing so, she allegedly reduced her interest and fees by $18,933 over the life of the loan.

James ran for Attorney General in New York on the promise that she would “get Trump.” When she was unable to find grounds to pursue criminal charges, she made unprecedented use of a consumer fraud law to pursue Trump for allegedly defrauding Deutsche Bank by overstating the value of Mar-a-Lago. Judge Arthur Engoron implausibly found that Mar-a-Lago’s $18 million tax assessment was its true value. Though Deutsche Bank officials testified they were not defrauded, lost no money, and would happily again work with Trump, Engoron banned the Trump family from doing business in New York, and imposed a penalty that, with interest, topped $500 million.

James vigorously sought to execute the judgement and foreclose on Trump’s properties. An appellate court stepped in, reducing Trump’s appeal bond to $175 million, and later throwing out the financial penalty.

Both indictments were secured by former Trump lawyer Lindsey Halligan, appointed to serve as interim U.S. attorney in Virginia when experienced prosecutor Erik Seibert declined to pursue the cases, and came just days after Trump posted a caustic text on Truth Social directing Attorney General Pam Bondi to prosecute Comey and James.

Democrats have been more muted about last week’s indictment in Maryland of former Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton for mishandling classified information.

I previously wrote about Democrats’ hypocrisy in objecting to investigations of their colleagues who engaged in lawfare against Trump and his supporters, though I cautioned the administration against prosecutions based on laws that are not traditionally enforced.

The facts suggest the three cases are indeed retribution. That does not void the indictments. Every lawyer is taught that the purpose of criminal justice is rehabilitation, retribution, and deterrence. Rather, the issue is whether these are selective prosecutions of laws that are not enforced against others. That is difficult to establish, particularly for these laws and by officials who hold a public trust.

The Biden administration prosecuted former White House aides Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro for refusing to testify before Congress, former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen for lying to Congress, and numerous Trump aides and supporters for lying to the FBI. Pre-Biden prosecutions for lying to Congress include Reagan National Security Advisor John Poindexter, Nixon chief of staff H.R. Haldeman, and baseball player Roger Clemens, among others.

James correctly observed that “Everyday Americans cannot lie to a bank to get a mortgage, and if they did, our government would throw the book at them.” Her alleged crime is regularly prosecuted, albeit usually when it involves larger amounts. Conversely, there are reports that James may have a history of mortgage abuse.

Mishandling of classified information is routinely prosecuted.

By pre-Biden standards, these types of prosecutions were often not seen as a good use of Justice Department resources. But the Biden administration’s use and support of novel legal theories to aggressively pursue Trump, his lawyers, and supporters have significantly lowered the bar for prosecuting those who hold public office.

I make no prediction about the outcome of these cases. For example, Comey's defenders claim Halligan’s appointment may be invalid. If so, the time has expired to re-indict Comey. Nonetheless, insincere Democrats should learn the lesson of Matthew 26:52: “… for all they that take the sword shall perish with the sword.” Amen.

Kenin M. Spivak is founder and chairman of SMI Group LLC, an international consulting firm and investment bank. He is the author of fiction and non-fiction books and a frequent speaker and contributor to media, including RealClearPolitics, The American Mind, National Review, television, radio, and podcasts.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/23/2025 - 11:00

The post Treasury’s $2 Trillion Payment to Trump, It’s Very MAGA! appeared first on CEPR.

EU Targets Russian LNG, Crypto, & Banking In Sweeping 19th Sanctions Package

"We waited for this. God bless, it will work. And this is very important," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in Brussels, as EU countries announced the bloc's latest round of large-scale anti-Moscow sanctions Thursday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had encouraged allies to "join in" as the US hit Russia's two largest oil giants with sweeping sanctions on Wednesday, and the EU quickly did with its 19th package of sanctions. The EU's newest action includes banning Russian liquefied natural gas imports for the bloc.

Zelensky has further hailed the "resolute and well-targeted decision," calling the Trump-ordered sanctions a "clear signal that prolonging the war and spreading terror come at a cost." He urged other global leaders to do the same as "it is a strong and much-needed message that aggression will not go unanswered."

To translate all of this: Zelensky almost always gets what he wants in this slow but steady escalation ladder between Russia and the West. "This has been the constant pattern of the conflict from day one," concludes Alex Christoforou of The Duran podcast.

What Zelensky demands from the US he always gets. It doesn't matter if it is Biden, Trump or whoever follows Trump. This has been the constant pattern of the conflict from day one.
US-EU coordinated their sanctions packages. Next up, long range missiles. Tomahawks, Taurus...… pic.twitter.com/ElFiuEdUI8

— Alex Christoforou (@AXChristoforou) October 23, 2025

The fresh EU sanctions take aim at Russia's energy, finance sectors, and the military industrial complex. Measures to strengthen control over the movement of Russian diplomats across the EU have also been put in place.

Russia's recently established state-supported stablecoin and crypto exchanges have also been significantly targeted in the EU sanctions.

Already Brussels is promising more down the road, with Kaja Kallas, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and chair of the Foreign Affairs Council, issuing the following statement:

We have just adopted our 19th package of sanctions. It targets Russian energy, banks, crypto exchanges, and entities in China, among others. The EU is also regulating the movements of Russian diplomats to counter attempts at destabilisation. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Putin to finance his war. Every euro we deny Russia is one it cannot spend on war. The 19th package will not be the last.

Below is a look at what energy companies and exports are targeted, as well as banking sector and crypto, based on the European Council's detailed press release. 

Energy

• Today’s package introduces a ban on imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) into the EU, starting January 2027 for long-term contracts, and within six months for short-term contracts, and tightens the existing transaction ban on two major Russian state-owned oil producers (Rosneft and Gazprom Neft). The EU is also listing a Tatarstani conglomerate active in the Russian oil sector. In parallel, the EU is taking measures against important third country operators enabling Russia’s revenue streams. This involves sanctioning Chinese entities - two refineries and an oil trader - that are significant buyers of Russian crude oil.

• Furthermore, the EU is imposing additional sanctions across the shadow fleet value chain. Specifically, the 19th package includes the listing of Litasco Middle East DMCC, Lukoil’s prominent shadow fleet enabler based in the United Arab Emirates. Other listings include maritime registries providing false flags to shadow fleet vessels, allowing their continued operation by creating a fraudulent impression of compliance with certification requirements. Today’s measures also target the largest port container operator in the Russian Far East, and a leading shipbuilder for Sovcomflot.

• An additional 117 vessels have been made subject to a port access ban and a ban on the provision of a broad range of services related to maritime transport, bringing the total number of designated vessels to 557. These measures target non-EU tankers that are part of the shadow fleet circumventing the oil price cap mechanism, which otherwise support Russia’s energy sector, or transport military equipment for Russia or stolen Ukrainian grain.

• The 19th package also introduces a ban on reinsuring vessels belonging to the shadow fleet, further constraining their ability to operate.

Financial measures

• Recent activity has evidenced Russia’s increasing use of crypto in circumventing sanctions. In this context, the stablecoin A7A5 – created with Russian state support – has emerged as a prominent tool for financing activities supporting the war of aggression. Therefore, today’s package introduces sanctions on the developer of A7A5, the Kyrgyz issuer of that coin, and the operator of a platform where significant volumes of A7A5 is traded. Transactions involving this stablecoin have also been prohibited across the EU.

• As of today, eight banks and oil traders from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, the UAE and Hong Kong that circumvent EU sanctions are subject to a transaction ban. Five additional Russian banks – Istina, Zemsky Bank, Commercial Bank Absolut Bank, MTS Bank, and Alfa-Bank – are targeted using the same measure. Four banks from Belarus and Kazakhstan are also put under a transaction ban, due to their connections to Russian financial messaging and payment systems.

• Additionally, the EU is prohibiting its operators from engaging with the Russian National Payment Card System (‘Mir’) or the Fast Payments System (‘SBP’). Significant restrictions are also imposed on maintaining economic relationships with entities active in nine Russian special economic zones. These zones are central to Russia’s industrial and technological capacity, hosting enterprises engaged in the production or development of goods contributing to the Russian war effort.

The full list can be accessed here.

Via Shutterstock 

The Kremlin's initial reaction has been to say that EU sanctions against Russia are backfiring on Brussels, and the possibilities for their expansion "are largely exhausted" - according to TASS.

Brussels has "already tried almost all options" for trying to bring Russia to its knees, Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Thursday. She condemned futile EU efforts to inflict "a strategic defeat on Russia, damaging the Russian economy, and defense capabilities." Further, she warned against targeting Russian assets which "will provoke a guaranteed, painful response."

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/23/2025 - 10:40

Existing Home Sales Rise Off Record Lows As Mortgage Rates Drop

With mortgage rates tumbling, housing market participants were disappointed this week by the lack of enthusiasm by homebuyers to apply for mortgages (though there was a decent bounce in refi activity). This morning's existing home sales data (admittedly for September) will give us a further glimpse into the reality oh home-buying vs home-selling as the gap between current mortgage rates and the average existing mortgage rates remains vast...

Source: Bloomberg

Analysts (rightfully, given the shift in rates) expected a bounce, albeit small (+1.5%), in existing home sales in September and they nailed it (which is a very modest bounce to say the least). On the bright side, existing home sales are up 4.2% YoY - the fastest pace since Dec 2024

Source: Bloomberg

Total Existing Home Sales SAAR moved modestly off the near-record-low levels...

Source: Bloomberg

Last month’s improved sales built on the flicker of momentum that started across both the existing- and new-home markets in August.

Mortgage rates started falling then and continued to decline in September.

Source: Bloomberg

The latest drop may bode well for sales in the coming months as homes typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

“As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

“Home prices continue to rise in most parts of the country, further contributing to overall household wealth.”

“Demand is beginning to stir” as homes get slightly more affordable and buyers and sellers on the margin come back into the market, according to a blog post earlier this month from Odeta Kushi, an economist at title insurance giant First American Financial Corp.

However, any rebound is expected to be slow. Despite their recent dip, rates remain almost double what they were at the end of 2021.

The median sales price climbed 2.1% from a year ago to $415,200, continuing a run of annual price gains stretching back to mid-2023.

Year-over-year price growth averaged well over 4% in 2024.

Last month, individual investors or second-home buyers bought 15% of homes, compared with 21% a month earlier.

That “volatility” could be because investors are anticipating a downshift in rental prices going forward, Yun said on a call with reporters.

One positive sign, especially for buyers, has been the increase in homes on the market.

Last month, the supply of previously owned homes for sale surged 14% from a year ago to 1.55 million, one of the highest levels since before the pandemic.

First-time homebuyers accounted for 30% of closings, compared with 28% in the prior month as the affordability crunch may be slowly easing.

Two-thirds of the US’s most populous metropolitan areas were buyer’s markets last month, meaning sellers outnumber buyers by at least 10%, according to research from online housing marketplace Redfin.
 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/23/2025 - 10:12

From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.5% Increase in September

Month-over-month

• 1.5% increase in existing-home sales – seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in September

• 1.3% increase in unsold inventory – 1.55 million units equal to 4.6 months' supply

Year-over-year

• 4.1% increase in existing-home sales

• 2.1% increase in median existing-home sales price to $415,200
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in September (4.06 million SAAR) were up 1.5% from the previous month and were up 4.1% compared to the September 2024 sales rate.  
The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.55 million in September from 1.53 million the previous month.
Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 14.0% year-over-year (blue) in September compared to September 2024.

Months of supply (red) was unchanged at 4.6 months in September from 4.6 months the previous month.

I'll have more later. 

Five Reasons Why Trump Is Once Again Escalating Against Russia

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

It was earlier assessed that “The Next Putin-Trump Meeting Might Lead To Something Tangible This Time Around” due to newfound mutual interests in reaching a deal, but then Trump canceled the Budapest Summit on the grounds that he didn’t think it’d be worth his time.

He also imposed new energy sanctions on Russia and might be lying about not having approved Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles.

Trump’s latest flip-flop surprised many but can be attributable in hindsight to the following five reasons:

1. He’s Driving A Hard Bargain To Coerce Putin Into Maximum Concessions

Russia’s minimum goal is to obtain full control over Donbass, without which Putin can’t hypothetically freeze (let alone end) the war without “losing face”. Trump refuses to coerce Zelensky into withdrawing from there, instead believing that he can coerce Putin into freezing the conflict without first controlling Donbass, thus amounting to maximum concessions. That’s still unacceptable for Putin and might always be, but Trump seems to be taking his refusal personally, perhaps seeing it as a challenge to his authority.

2. The Warmongers Appear To Have Once Again Made Him Change His Mind

Trump’s announcement was made during a meeting with NATO chief Mark Rutte, thus suggesting that warmongers like him, Zelensky, Lindsey Graham, and others still have his ear. He’s infamously capricious, with many having noticed that he tends to be influenced by the last person who talked to him. This idiosyncrasy makes him comparatively easier to manipulate than most, which has enormous implications in terms of how certain lobbies and foreign forces could influence US policy throughout his second term.

3. Trump Seems To Truly Believe That The Any Escalation Will Remain Manageable

Trump wouldn’t try to drive a hard bargain and end up giving in to the warmongers unless he truly believed that any Russian-US escalation would remain manageable. His calculation presupposes that there won’t be any overwhelming response from Putin that would then push them towards climbing the escalation ladder all the way to the top. It’s predicated on the assumption that Russia is weaker than the US and will therefore back down if significantly pressured. That’s a gamble to take.

4. He’s Also Not Abandoning His Stratagem Of Dividing-And-Ruling Eurasia

Senior refinery executives told NDTV that “Flows of Russian oil to major Indian processors are expected to fall to near zero” after the latest sanctions, which could divide the newly solidified Russia-India-China (RIC) triangle if true. Trump might also expect that China will do the same to get him to curtail the additional 100% tariffs that he threatened to impose on it next month. He could still be proven wrong on both counts, but in any case, his latest escalation shows that he’s still trying to divide-and-rule Eurasia.

5. Trump Might Be Betting On Chinese Non-Compliance With The Latest Sanctions

China isn’t expected to comply with the US’ latest sanctions since it’ll gain by purchasing at a steep discount whatever oil Russia might soon be unable to sell to India. The interim Sino-US trade deal might then collapse if Trump imposes his threatened tariffs on China and makes their curtailing conditional on it dumping Russian oil. He might even want this predictable sequence of events to unfold, however, so as to justify accelerating his planned “Pivot (back) to (East) Asia” for more muscularly containing China.

Trump’s reason for once again escalating against Russia is primarily due to his belief (however possibly mistaken) that Putin won’t risk tensions spiraling out of control in response even if he never agrees to the maximum concessions being demanded of him.

The US might have also concluded, whether rightly or wrong, that India is the weak link in RIC which can be coerced into breaking up BRICS.

To be clear, these explanations don’t equate to endorsements, but they cogently account for what Trump just did.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/23/2025 - 09:20

US Commerce Dept Says "Not Currently Negotiating" With Any Quantum Computing Firms

Update (0850ET): Reuters reports that a U.S. Commerce Department official them in an email that the department is "not currently negotiating with any of the companies".

This prompted a small dip in the main Quantum names (e.g. QBTS below) but that has since seen dip-buyers move back in as the massive short positions await the cash market open to decide whether to cover or brave it out...

*  *  *

A few days ago, when we were looking at the rapidly growing list of companies that Uncle Sam is "buying", we thought to ourselves: these are all the companies that value investors had long ago left for dead, and which had seen a dramatic buildup in shorts... who were summarily nuked when the White House, very much like Reddit's Wall Street Apes, decided to spark a meltup frenzy to keep the high-beta junk names soaring in what has been a tidal, rolling short squeeze from one sector to another and back again. 

Indeed, as Bank of America shows, in just the past few weeks the US government had taken equity stakes in tech, pharma, rare earths and metals (as an side, the US government investing in stocks is not a new phenomenon, but has been more prevalent for bailouts than strategic investments in recent decade).

So, when looking at the above chart, we said to ourselves that if there was one sector that was ripe for White House "investment", it would be the quantum names: with short interest in the 20% range, these names - some of which may even not be frauds in the long run and end up successful in a decade or two - were long ago left for dead by "serious investors", and were just begging for a spark to trigger a massive meltup. 

If only we had put our money where our mouth was... we would have a whole lot more money because late on Wednesday, the WSJ reported that the Trump's Commerce Department was in talks with several quantum-computing companies to buy equity stakes in exchange for federal funding, a signal that the Trump administration is expanding its interventions in what it sees as critical segments of the economy. 

The deals with the quantum companies haven’t been completed and might change. A Commerce document soliciting funding applications says the deals might include warrants, licenses to intellectual property, royalties or revenue sharing in addition to equity stakes.

Companies including IonQ, Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum - among the most shorted companies in the world - are discussing the government becoming a shareholder as part of agreements to get funding earmarked for promising technology companies, according to people familiar with the matter. Other companies such as Quantum Computing and Atom Computing are considering similar arrangements.

Yet while in theory such an arrangement might make sense, in principle one wonders if Trump isn't really fucking with the short and hoping to spark sequential squeezes across all high beta segments of the market and to keep stocks afloat that way. We say that, because unlike some previous sizable investments, in this case the companies are discussing minimum funding awards from Washington of $10 million each. And just to make sure that all shorts are burned, the WSJ added that "other technology companies are also expected to vie for the funding."

The discussions are the latest example of the Trump Industrial Policy, the pinnacle of which manifests in the administration's moves to become a shareholder in some companies. Trump and Howard Lutnick have said the government should share in a company’s upside since taxpayer money provides financial support and a stamp of approval. Even if the upside is based on a tiny $10 million sliver. 

As correctly predicted on this site first...

The Pentagon took a stake in US rare earth miner MP Materials... when will it do the same with Intel

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 7, 2025

... in August, the government agreed to take a nearly 10% stake in chip company Intel in exchange for converting almost $9 billion in previously awarded grants to equity. The arrangement would make the government Intel’s largest shareholder and followed a similar deal with one of the few US producers of rare-earth materials. The Energy Department received warrants giving it the right to buy shares of a lithium startup at a set price in exchange for a government loan.

The funding for quantum companies would be one of the first significant signs of support for what is viewed  as a critical technology sector from Washington. Quantum computers are seen as a critical next-generation technology because they can not only quickly perform computations that would take today’s computers eons, but are key to hacking sophisticated 256 bit and higher encryption schemes. That sort of advance could make it easier to find new drugs, materials and chemicals while making every segment of the economy more efficient; of course by the time it is more efficient, there will be no workers as they will all be replacted with AI chatbots. 

Ironically, shares of companies in the space have surged this year in what was a huge short squeeze, crushing the shorts, though they have plunged in recent days, wiping out the longs.

Now it's the shorts' turn again to be steamrolled courtesy of record short interest in the quantum sector. 

The US government's presence here is hardly surprising: companies from IBM to Microsoft are investing in quantum computing, as is China. Earlier today, Google said that it showed a quantum computer can run 13,000 times faster than classic supercomputers and potentially speed drug discovery and materials science.

Deputy Commerce Secretary Paul Dabbar, a former quantum-computing executive and Energy Department official, is leading the funding discussions with companies in the industry, the people said. Bohr Quantum Technology, the company Dabbar co-founded and led as chief executive for four years, isn’t a candidate to receive funding, a Commerce Department official said.

Deputy Commerce Secretary Paul Dabbar is leading the funding discussions with companies in the quantum-computing industry

Quantum Computing CEO Yuping Huang said the government’s potential equity stakes in companies in the industry are exciting. A Rigetti spokeswoman said the company is continuously engaging with the government on funding opportunities. Allison Schwartz, head of government relations for D-Wave, said the company wants to sell systems that can solve the government’s hard problems and get a return on investment. Atom Computing and IonQ declined to comment. 

The funding the companies are seeking comes from the Chips Research and Development Office, which Lutnick has reorganized under his overhaul of how the agency manages 2022 Chips Act funding. He recently clawed back several billion dollars from a tech research initiative funded by the Biden administration.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/23/2025 - 08:55

Futures Flat As Oil Surges

US equity futures are flat and European stocks headed for a record high as third-quarter earnings continued to flow in.  As of 8:20am, S&P and Nasdaq futures are little changed. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly flat except for a -3% selloff in TSLA given the underwhelming earnings release last night which saw profits tumble despite record revenues (pulled forward due to expiration of tax credits) on sharply higher costs. Quantum-computing stocks rallied on a WSJ report the US Is mulling buying stakes (Rigetti Computing (RGTI US) +9.1%, IonQ (IONQ US) +8.7%). Overnight, the most important headline was US’s sanction on the two largest oil company in Russia which sent WTI crude surging 5.5% higher this morning. As a result, bond yields are 1-5bp higher led by 30y, and the 10Y trading just below 4.00%. The USD is higher. Commodities are mostly higher led by oil and precious metals (silver +1.1%). US-China trade talk is set for Friday in Malaysia. Today's economic calendar calendar includes September existing home sales (10am) and October Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am); weekly jobless claims data have been suspended by the shutdown.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Tesla (TSLA) falls 3.5% after profit plunged despite a record quarter of vehicle sales (Alphabet +0.4%, Amazon +0.3%, Microsoft +0.2%, Apple -0.06%, Nvidia -0.2%, Meta -0.1%)

• Quantum-Computing Stocks Rally on Report US Is Mulling Stakes (Rigetti Computing (RGTI US) +9.1%
  IonQ (IONQ US) +8.7%, D-Wave Quantum (QBTS US) +12.5%)
• Dow Inc. (DOW) rises 6% after the chemicals company reported third-quarter operating Ebitda that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Honeywell (HON) gains 4% after the industrial company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share that surpassed analysts’ expectations. 
• International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) is down 7% after it reported disappointing revenue in two key software categories, including its closely watched Red Hat unit.
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS) rises 5% after the casino operator reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• LendingClub (LC) soars 11% after the online lender provided a guidance range for new 4Q originations with a midpoint above estimates. JPMorgan upgraded the stock to overweight.
• Moderna (MRNA) is down 4% after the company said its vaccine to prevent cytomegalovirus, a common cause of birth defects, failed to meet its goal in a late-stage trial.
• Molina Healthcare (MOH) is down 18% after the health insurer cut its adjusted profit guidance for the full year, citing higher medical cost trends in all its businesses.
• T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) falls 1% after posting third quarter results.
• Tractor Supply (TSCO) falls 3% after the retailer narrowed its full-year guidance range for net sales, with the midpoint toward the lower end of the previous range.
• Ribbon Communications (RBBN) falls 14% after the developer of software for large phone companies posted third quarter profit that disappointed. Guidance for fourth quarter revenue also missed expectations.
• Ventyx Biosciences (VTYX) surges 105% after the drug developer said mid-stage clinical trial results showed significant reductions in cardiovascular risk factors in patients with obesity.

In corporate news, the Wall Street bonus pool is expected to break records this year as big banks reap profits from soaring stocks and a return to more dealmaking after a long drought. Musk, meanwhile, spent the end of Tesla’s earnings call pleading with investors to ratify his upcoming $1 trillion pay package. Polymarket is said to be holding early conversations with investors and looking to raise money at a valuation between $12 billion and $15 billion.

Oil prices jumped after the Trump administration sanctioned Russian state-owned group Lukoil and Rosneft, ramping up the pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. Brent has jumped by 5% to start testing $66/barrel. The oil price spike may accelerate a shift in equities to value from growth sectors.

While valuations on the S&P 500 appear stretched, drawdowns in recent weeks have been brief as investors look for better entry points. The “artificial intelligence ecosystem” and banks have shown strong earnings, according to Arun Sai, a senior multi-asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management. “We’re seeing froth skimmed off the top, which so far I think is a healthy correction,” Sai said. “You still don’t have evidence to suggest there is anything fundamentally wrong with the US economy or with markets” given strong earnings and the lack of US government data, he said.

While the market remains very steady at the index level, big rotations are going on below the surface, with momentum trades like AI losing steam, as earnings misses pile up in the tech sector and geopolitical tensions simmer. Oil jumped after the US announced sanctions on Russia’s biggest producers. Tesla shares are lower premarket after quarterly profit plunged, while Elon Musk’s vision of an AI-focused future failed to convince. IBM also disappointed, adding to a slate of poor tech earnings this week including SAP, Netflix and Texas Instruments. Intel is due to report after the close.

The meme stock mania of the past few days may also be passing, with Beyond Meat and Krispy Kreme both lower in premarket trading. A four-day surge that sent Beyond Meat shares up more than 1,300% pushed short sellers’ paper losses to more than $120 million from last week’s record low close, according to data from S3 Partners. Some shorts have been scrambling to exit, while others have doubled down on bets against the plant-based protein producer.

Trade tensions are also never far away. China said Vice Premier He Lifeng plans to meet with US officials in Kuala Lumpur from Oct. 24 to 27 for the next round of talks. The Trump administration is weighing export restrictions against China that would bar the purchase of a wide swath of critical software, a White House official said Wednesday.

“Because of the trade tensions, there was a narrative of caution going into third-quarter season and that has now abated, given the stronger numbers,” said Nina Stanojevic, an investment specialist at St James Place. “People were looking to this earnings season to see if there was any flow-through from the trade tariffs but it seems that the market has taken it in its stride so far.”

The markets are jittery about the US-China tensions, and “though it could probably be just another TACO situation, and even though everyone knows that’s how it goes, there are still people who have to react until things settle down,” said Ryuta Otsuka, a strategist at Toyo Securities.

Looking at Q3 reporting season, earnings so far have been broadly positive, helping to support equities as a mix of macro fears injected a note of nervousness into global markets. The Trump administration said it’s considering curbs on software exports to China, risking another escalation of the trade dispute. Traders are also pinning their hopes on another Federal Reserve interest-rate cut later this month, even as they await delayed September inflation data due to be released on Friday.

European equities rose on Thursday, with energy shares leading gains as oil rallied after the US imposed sanctions on Russian producers. Travel and technology shares are the biggest laggards. Stoxx 600 rises 0.2% to 573.25 with 277 members down, 313 up, and 10 little changed. Here are the biggest movers: 

• Energy is the best-performing sector in Europe on Thursday as oil rallies after the US announced sanctions on Russia’s biggest producers, with President Donald Trump ramping up pressure to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine
• LSE Group shares rise as much as 9%, after the data company and stock exchange operator reported third-quarter results that analysts described as strong and raised its guidance for 2025 adjusted Ebitda margin to the top end of the prior range
• Nokia shares surge as much 13%, the most since April 2021, as analysts cheer a strong report from the Finnish digital infrastructure firm in which net sales beat expectations; Jefferies sees strong momentum building in the quarter
• DSV gains as much as 7.6%, the most since April, after the Danish logistics group’s third-quarter report showed positive impacts from cost control as well as an earlier-than-expected boost from the recent Schenker acquisition, according to analysts
• Kering shares rise as much as 10%, hitting the highest level since April 2024, after the luxury-goods maker reported better-than-expected third-quarter revenue
• Dassault Systemes shares drop as much as 17%, the most since 2002, after the software firm lowered its revenue forecast for the year. The shares are trading at the lowest since April 2020
• RELX falls as much as 2.7% after the UK information and analytics firm reported results in line with analysts’ estimates. Underlying trends indicate the company is on track to meet FY expectations
• Evolution shares drop as much as 13% to the lowest intraday level in almost five years. The Swedish gambling operator’s revenue and earnings missed estimates in the third quarter, with Asia a particular source of weakness
• Carrefour shares drop as much as 5.9%, the most since June, after the grocer reported 3Q LFL sales excluding fuel and calendar effects that missed analyst estimates
• Roche shares drop as much as 3.4%, the most since May 12, after the Swiss drugmaker reported weaker-than-expected sales for the third quarter. Vontobel called the upgraded earnings guidance for the full year an “unconventional move”

Asian stocks declined, in risk-off trading after news that the White House is considering curbs against China that would bar the purchase of a wide swath of critical software. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.7% before paring losses. TSMC and SoftBank were among the biggest drags, tracking a continued selloff in global AI shares, while tech stocks also slid in Hong Kong. Japan and South Korea led losses among regional benchmarks. The US is considering curbs similar to those implemented against Russia if China doesn’t back down from its threat to restrict rare-earth exports, Reuters reported earlier. While it’s not clear how serious the effort is, it caused fresh anxiety for traders ahead of trade talks planned for next week between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. China announced in the afternoon that Vice Premier He Lifeng plans to meet with US officials in Kuala Lumpur from Oct. 24 to 27 for the next round of trade talks. Chinese equities staged a rebound later in the day, with the onshore benchmark CSI 300 Index ending the day 0.3% higher, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.8%. A pivotal political gathering on the nation’s development plan for the next five years was also in focus, with authorities expected to deliver fresh policy measures to support growth. Elsewhere, Indonesia’s stock benchmark climbed more than 1%, leading gainers around the region. Here are the most notable Asian movers

• Japanese shipbuilders including Namura Shipbuilding and Sumitomo Heavy Industries surged after the Nikkei reported that an industry group will soon announce a ¥350 billion capital investment plan. Meanwhile, Tesla supplier stocks including Renesas Electronics and TDK fell after the EV maker reported worse-than-expected profit.
• Sands China shares gain as much as 4.6% in Hong Kong after the casino operator’s parent reported an adjusted EBITDA for its Macau operation in the third quarter that beat estimates.
• Pop Mart International Group Ltd. shares plunged on Thursday, reflecting renewed concerns about the toy maker’s long-term sales outlook despite a strong third-quarter performance.
• LS Electric shares surge as much as 13% to a record high as NH Investment & Securities and other brokerages raise their price targets for the South Korean energy equipment maker following a 19% on-year jump in quarterly sales.
• Giant Biogene shares rise as much as 14% in Hong Kong, the most since March 2023, after the co.’s controlling shareholder increased stake in the firm.

Chinese officials conclude their Fourth Plenum gathering in Beijing, with a readout expected later in the day. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to huddle with his Chinese counterparts over the weekend ahead of the Trump-Xi talks.

In FX, an earlier gain in the dollar eases, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index little changed and Japanese yen underperforming. The US currency was supported by its 0.5% gain versus the yen to 152.66; the Japanese currency was pressured by expectations of fiscal expansion under the country’s new prime minister and fading prospects for interest rate hikes

In rates, Treasuries hold losses accumulated during London morning as oil prices surged after the US announced sanctions on Russia’s biggest producers, with yields higher by 2bp-5bp and curve steeper. Treasuries lead losses for most bond markets globally. The US 10-year yield is near 3.99% after touching 3.936% Wednesday, with 2s10s and 5s30s curves wider by about 1.5bp near 52bp and 99bp respectively. The US session includes 5-year TIPS auction, following strong demand for Wednesday’s 20-year bond sale. Yields are higher across Europe.

In commodities, WTI crude futures remain more than 5% higher on the day after climbing as much as 5.8% after the Trump administration sanctioned Russian state-owned group Lukoil and Rosneft, ramping up the pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. Brent has jumped by 5% to start testing $66/barrel. Gold turned positive after two days of steep declines as the Trump administration’s latest trade threats introduced fresh tension into US-China relations. 

Today's economic calendar calendar includes September existing home sales (10am) and October Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am); weekly jobless claims data have been suspended by the shutdown

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini little changed
• Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
• Russell 2000 mini +0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
• DAX -0.4%
• CAC 40 +0.3%
• 10-year Treasury yield +4 basis points at 3.99%
• VIX +0.3 points at 18.91
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1213.5
• euro little changed at $1.16
• WTI crude +5.2% at $61.52/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Republican Senators are said to consider a bill to keep SNAP program benefits flowing during the government shutdown, according to POLITICO.
• Bessent said they might see CPI coming down next month and the month after, while he thinks housing prices are a lagging indicator, and they are going to see substantial tax refunds for Americans.
• President Trump has announced substantial new sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil companies as frustration in Washington grows over the war in Ukraine. The new sanctions target Lukoil and Rosneft as well as nearly three dozen of their subsidiaries. WSJ
• U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he expected to reach agreements with Chinese President Xi Jinping when they meet in South Korea next week that could range from resumed soybean purchases by Beijing to limits on nuclear weapons. Trump also plans to discuss China’s purchases of Russian oil an dhow to stop Russia’s war in Ukraine. RTRS
• A Treasury analysis has found the Trump administrations economic policies have put the US on track to narrow its yawning deficit using a mix of spending cuts and tariff revenue to improve the fiscal outlook. FT
• China said Vice Premier He Lifeng plans to meet with US officials (Bessent, Greer) in Kuala Lumpur from Oct. 24 to 27 for the next round of trade talks, aimed at defusing a standoff between the world’s two largest economies. BBG
• Trump's administration is in talks to take equity stakes in quantum computing firms: WSJ.
• President Trump said interest rates are down, while he criticized the Fed chair, and noted that he will be doing something very quickly to get beef prices down. 
• The new junior party in Japan's ruling coalition is likely to give Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi the green light she needs for a big spending package, but will stop short of supporting a revival of Abenomics-style fiscal and monetary policies. RTRS
•  
• BOJ watchers pushed back their forecast for the next interest-rate hike after Sanae Takaichi took over as PM. Only 10% of economists now predict a rate hike on Oct. 30, down from 36% in the previous survey. BBG
• Indian refiners are poised to sharply curtail imports of Russian oil to comply with new U.S. sanctions on two top Russian producers, industry sources said on Thursday, potentially removing a major hurdle to a trade deal with the United States. The change comes as India faces punishing 50% tariffs on its exports to the US and tries to negotiate a trade deal. RTRS
• Canada aims to double its non-US exports by 2035, PM Mark Carney said in a rare prime-time televised speech. He also plans to introduce an immigration strategy to lure talent that might’ve otherwise gone to the US. BBG
• Retail traders are cementing themselves as a force in markets. One proxy for their involvement is stock trades at off-exchange venues, which are poised to make up 50% of total volume this year for the first time. BBG
• Investors are more bullish than before according to the latest Barron’s money manager survey – 47% anticipate higher stock prices over the next 12 months vs. just 28% in the spring (although 57% believe stocks are overvalued). Barron’s

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump’s administration is considering a plan to restrict globally produced exports to China made with or containing US software, while the new export controls under consideration by the US could curb exports on a wide range of goods to China, and the plan would retaliate against China's rare earth export restrictions if adopted, according to Reuters sources. However, the sources said that the measure, details of which are being reported for the first time, may not move forward, and administration officials could announce the measure to put pressure on China but stop short of implementing it, while narrower policy proposals are also being discussed.
• US President Trump said a long meeting is scheduled with Chinese President Xi in South Korea, and he thinks something will work out, while he thinks he will make a deal with Chinese President Xi and could make a deal on soybeans. Trump added that they could even make a deal on nuclear and thinks he will talk to Xi about Russian oil, as well as ending the war in Ukraine. Trump also commented that tariffs are vital and that they might go to the Supreme Court for the tariffs case.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he was leaving on Wednesday for Malaysia to meet with Chinese officials and is hoping they can iron things out, while he will have two days of fulsome talks with Chinese officials in Malaysia. Bessent said it would be a shame to waste the first meeting of Trump and China's Xi during Trump's second term, as well as noted that he is contemplating the US and allies' next move if China talks fail.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said any export controls regarding China will be in coordination with G7 allies.
• Taiwan US envoy said they are close to reaching a trade agreement with the US.
• China Commerce Ministry says Vice Premier Lifeng will hold talks with the USA regarding trade in Malaysia within 24-27 October.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the negative handover from Wall St, where sentiment was weighed on by US-China frictions. ASX 200 traded rangebound as participants digested quarterly updates, and with gains in energy and utilities offsetting the weakness in tech and mining. Nikkei 225 underperformed after gapping lower at the open to beneath the 49,000 level despite a weaker currency. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were negative with the mainland pressured amid US-China tensions after reports that the Trump admin considers restricting globally-produced exports to China made with or containing US software.

Top Asian News

• BoK kept the base rate unchanged at 2.50%, as expected, with the decision not unanimous as board member Shin Sung-Hwan dissented and said a rate cut is needed to support growth. BoK said it will maintain the rate cut stance to mitigate downside risk to economic growth, and will adjust the timing and pace of any further base rate cuts, while it will closely monitor changes in domestic and external policy conditions, as well as examine the impact on inflation and financial stability. BoK Governor Rhee revealed that four board members said the door for rate cuts should be open for the near future, while two board members said current rates should be maintained. Rhee also said that a rate cut at the meeting could have accelerated the upswing in property prices and that it was too early to tell if the rate-cut stance could continue through next year. Furthermore, he said there is greater focus on financial stability among board members, and noted that the chip cycle and US-China trade talks should be watched as the board prepares for the November forecast revision.
• Japan's RENGO says it will be seeking wage hikes of 5% or more in 2026 shunto negotiations
• China publishes fourth plenum communique, via Xinhua; approves draft of next five-year plan as plenum ends, aims to boost trade innovation, further open markets and extend bilateral investment opportunities. Plans measures to stabilise the job market. Will strengthen public opinion guidance to effectively prevent ideological risks. To enhance social security controls to legally combat crime. Promotes long-term prosperity and stability in Hong Kong and Macau. Will persevere in advancing comprehensive and strict governance over the Communist party. Aiming for a 'big increase' in the level of tech self-reliance. To comprehensively enhance independent innovation capabilities.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) are mostly firmer but with some slight underperformance in the DAX 40, which is being pressured by post-earning losses in SAP (-2.4%). European sectors are mixed. Energy takes the top spot, joined closely by Consumer Products; the latter boosted by upside in Kering (+9%) after the Co. reported strong Q3 metrics. To the downside, Evolution (7%) weighs on the Travel & Leisure sector.

Top European News

• SNB Minutes (Sep): discussed diverging interest rate developments in the US and EZ with experts. Board concluded that the current implementation of monetary policy was appropriate under various scenarios.
• German Council of Tax Experts expect EUR 33.6bln more in total tax revenue in 2025-2029 vs May; German Finance Minister says more positive economic outlook is reflected in rising tax rev.; Gov. is bearing most of growth booster expenses

FX

• USD is slightly firmer/flat and trades within a very narrow 98.92-99.10 range; lack of data releases and Fed speak (due to blackout) has led to quiet trade for the Dollar. However, this should all pick-up on Friday, with the BLS set to release US CPI, despite the government shutdown. There have been some important trade-related newsflow recently; Reuters reported that the Trump administration is mulling a plan to restrict globally produced exports to China made with or containing US software. Though the piece suggested that the US may not go forward with the plan, and may only be used to apply pressure on China amid trade negotiations. On that, Treasury Secretary Bessent is set to meet with China’s VP in Malaysia over the weekend; Bessent said he hopes “to iron things out”.
• EUR is flat/incrementally lower vs USD. EUR/USD is currently trading in a 1.1591-1.1614 range, which is towards the mid-point of Wednesday’s bounds. Overnight, ECB’s Kazaks said “it may well be the case that the next rate move could as easily be a hike as a cut” – comments which are in contrast to Villeroy (cut more likely than hike) and Kocher (sees equal chance).
• JPY is right at the foot of the G10 pile, alongside haven peer CHF; nothing really driving the “risk-on” sentiment seen in the FX-space today, but perhaps some focus on US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s meeting with China VP this weekend – it is worth caveating that other trade-related reporting has been broadly negative (discussed above). Newsflow out of Japan has been very light, with USD/JPY largely moving at the whim of the Dollar; currently trades at the upper end of a 151.82-152.66 range, a peak which marks a WTD best. Further upside could see a breach back above 153.00 and then to the 10th October high at 152.27.
• GBP is flat, taking a breather following the prior day’s subdued trade in the aftermath of a softer-than-expected inflation report. Newsflow since has been incredibly light, and this has been reflected in Cable, which currently trades in a narrow 1.3329-1.3362 range; at the mid-point of Wednesday’s confines.
• Antipodeans are at the top of the G10 pile, but little fresh behind the strength; though upside which seemingly coincided with an early-morning uptick in copper prices.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0918 vs exp. 7.1205 (Prev. 7.0954)

Fixed Income

• USTs were softer by a tick or two in APAC trade and have continued to dip into and throughout the European morning. Pressure a function of the pockets of improvement in the risk tone as the US-China situation isn't perhaps as bad as first thought, a point added to by the fact the US’ Bessent and China’s He are still set to meet in Malaysia from tomorrow.
• Thus far, down to a 113-16+ trough with downside of nine ticks at most and approaching the 113-10 WTD base. Ahead, Fed's Barr and Bowman are scheduled, but the blackout means this will be a non-event. Data-wise, the shutdown continues to limit, but any comments from the KC survey on inflation are of note ahead of Friday's CPI.
• EGBs followed suit to the above. Bunds below the 130.00 mark, matching the 129.24 low from Tuesday, but yet to test 129.76 from Monday. EGBs hit by the better tone around trade as outlined above. Further pressure for fixed income also stemming from the continued advances in energy prices, biasing yields higher.
• Gilts, unsurprisingly, saw a softer start after closing with gains of nearly 60 ticks on Wednesday. Gilts opened lower by a handful of ticks and despite a brief move into the green have since conformed to the bearish bias and trade lower by 15 ticks, an amount comparable to Bunds.
• UK sells GBP 4.75bln 4.125% 2035 Gilt: b/c 2.83, average yield 4.00%, tail 0.7bps

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are strong today as the US placed new sanctions on Russian oil companies. After an initial c. USD 1.30/bbl move late on Wednesday, WTI and Brent trended higher during APAC trade from USD 59.72/bbl and USD 63.86/bbl respectively to peak at USD 60.90/bbl and USD 65.04/bbl. Currently, benchmarks are continuing to trade higher to new session highs at USD 61.79/bbl and USD 65.96/bbl respectively. To recap, late in Wednesday’s session, the US placed sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil because of “Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process”.
• Spot XAU is a little firmer and is currently oscillating in a tight USD 4066-4137/oz band as the metal consolidates following Tuesday’s selloff from record highs.
• Base metals traded rangebound during the APAC session but broke out of recent ranges following Antofagasta copper production and confirmation of a China-US meeting in Malaysia. 3M LME Copper oscillated in a tight c. USD 50/t range during APAC trade before trending higher and is currently making fresh session highs at USD 10.82k/t.
• Reliance, India will be halting Russian oil imports as part of the term-deal with Rosneft due to the latest US sanctions, via Reuters citing sources
• Russian oil supply to India is set to fall to near zero, according to sources cited by Bloomberg.
• Indian state refiners reviewing bills of lading for Russian oil cargoes arriving post-November 21st to ensure no supply comes directly from US-sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, according to a source cited by Reuters

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US Secretary of State Rubio said the Israeli Knesset's moves on West Bank annexation threaten the Gaza peace deal.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US President Trump said it didn't feel right to have a meeting with Russian President Putin, so he cancelled it and felt it was time for Russian sanctions but hopes sanctions won't be on for long. Trump also stated that whenever he speaks with Russian President Putin, they are good conversations, but they don't go anywhere, while he added that sanctions will hopefully make Russian President Putin reasonable.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said they would still like to meet with the Russians and are always going to be interested in engaging with Russia if there's an opportunity to achieve peace.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said a substantial pick up in Russia sanctions was expected to be announced on Wednesday or Thursday. Bessent separately commented that Russian President Putin has not come to the table in an honest manner and President Trump is disappointed with where we are in talks to end the war, while he said the incoming Russia sanctions will be among the largest and the US is urging European and G7 allies, plus Canada and Australia, to join the sanctions push.
• US Treasury Department announced it is imposing sanctions on Russia related to oil and is targeting Russia's Rosneft and Lukoil in the latest batch of sanctions, while it added that OFAC is designating a number of Russia-based Rosneft and Lukoil subsidiaries. Furthermore, it stated that all entities owned 50% or more, directly or indirectly, by Rosneft and Lukoil are blocked, even if not designated by OFAC and it called on Russia to immediately agree to a ceasefire.
• Ukraine President Zelensky says a ceasefire is a possibility. More pressure on Russia is needed. Will not agree to territorial concessions.
• Russia's Deputy Security Council Chair Medvedev states that the US is a Russian opponent and that US President Trump is on a warpath, his actions are like an act of war.

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korea said its missile test on Wednesday was successful and was for self-defence, while it added that the missiles tested were hypersonic projectiles, according to KCNA.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Oct 18 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225k
• 8:30 am: Oct 11 Continuing Claims, est. 1932k
• 10:00 am: Sep Existing Home Sales, est. 4.06m, prior 4m
• 10:00 am: Sep Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 1.5%, prior -0.2%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets struggled for momentum yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-0.53%) falling back after 3 consecutive gains. The main drivers were fears around the US-China trade situation, weaker earnings announcements, as well as growing concerns about a protracted US government shutdown. So that meant sentiment took a hit, with investors becoming a bit less confident in the near-term outlook. Indeed, there was little respite in any direction, as gold fell another -0.65% after Wednesday’s -5.30% slump. However, one asset that did jump were oil prices, with Brent Crude back above $64/bbl this morning after the US announced new sanctions against Russian oil.

Those trade concerns were one of the biggest market catalysts yesterday, and Reuters reported that the Trump administration were considering a plan to restrict exports to China on items that contain US software or were produced using US software. The article said the plan wasn’t the only option on the table, but was designed to retaliate against China’s restrictions on rare earth exports.  That left a sense of both sides engaging in hard bargaining ahead of the possible Trump-Xi meeting and trade-sensitive indices took a particular hit yesterday, including the Philadelphia Semiconductor index (-2.36%). That said, we did see hear some constructive-sounding comments later on, with Trump suggesting that he and China's Xi would "make a deal on, I think, everything".

The tech mood didn’t improve much after the close, as Tesla was the first of the Mag-7 to report earnings this season. While its revenue beat expectations, they posted a larger-than-expected decline in profits with earnings per share down 31% year-over-year ($0.50 vs $0.54 estimate) weighed down by a surge in operating expenses. So that left Tesla’s shares down -3.95% in after-hours trading, following on a -0.82% decline in yesterday’s regular session. However, it hasn’t caused too big a hit to overall sentiment, with futures on the S&P 500 (+0.11%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+0.17%) both pointing higher this morning.

Before the Tesla results, the S&P 500 (-0.53%) had already lost ground yesterday. While chip stocks led the underperformance, the Mag-7 saw a similar -0.53% decline. The more cyclical industrials (-1.31%) and consumer discretionary (-1.00%) sectors struggled in particular, while the small cap Russell 2000 (-1.45%) saw one of the biggest losses. Meanwhile, Netflix (-10.07%) was the second worst performer in the S&P 500 after their earnings were beneath analysts’ estimates the previous evening. And it was a tough day in Europe too, as the STOXX 600 (-0.18%) also lost ground, with the DAX (-0.74%) and the CAC 40 (-0.63%) posting even bigger declines.

Matters haven’t been helped by the ongoing US government shutdown, which is now on day 23. So, it’s now the second-longest shutdown, only ranking behind the most recent 35-day shutdown in 2018-19, and there’s still no sign of a compromise between Republicans and Democrats that would bring it to an end. Indeed, the Polymarket probabilities currently suggest there’s a 75% chance that this will be the longest shutdown in history, so it could be some time before the regular flow of US economic data resumes. That backdrop was supportive for Treasuries however, as the risk-off move and a strong 20yr auction supported demand. So the 10yr yield (-1.3bps) fell to a fresh one-year low of 3.95%, and the 30yr yield (-1.2bps) was down to its lowest since the Liberation Day turmoil in April, at 4.53%.

Overnight, the biggest market move has come from oil prices, after the US Treasury announced sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies, citing "Russia's lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine". These are the first material US sanctions against Russia introduced since Trump re-entered the White House in January and mark a sharp shift in tone compared to a week ago, when the two sides had talked about a possible meeting in Budapest between Trump and Putin. And with increased risks of oil supply disruption, Brent crude is +3.10% higher overnight at $64.53/bbl, extending a +2.07% gain yesterday, which if sustained would be its biggest 2-day jump since July.

Despite the risk-off move globally yesterday, here in the UK there was a decent market rally after the latest CPI print showed a clear downside surprise. So headline CPI remained at +3.8% (vs. +4.0% expected), and core CPI unexpectedly fell to +3.5% (vs. +3.7% expected). That meant investors dialled up their expectations for another BoE rate cut this year, with the probability of a cut by the December meeting up from 42% to 72% by the close yesterday. In turn, that led to a huge rally for gilts, with the 2yr gilt yield (-8.8bps) down to its lowest since August 2024, whilst the 10yr gilt yield also fell -6.0bps. So that’s also positive from a fiscal standpoint ahead of the government’s budget next month, and UK equities saw a decent rally too. That meant the FTSE 100 was up +0.93%, whilst the more domestically-focused FTSE 250 (+1.47%) posted its strongest gain in over 6 months to close at its highest level since February 2022.
Elsewhere in Europe, bond yields picked up after their recent declines, with yields on 10yr bunds (+1.1bps), OATs (+1.2bps) and BTPs (+0.5bps) all moving higher. In part, that was driven by a pickup for inflation expectations, which came as oil prices moved higher even before the new US sanctions story broke.

Overnight in Asia, the more negative theme has continued this morning, with the major equity indices falling back as they react to the prospect of a further escalation in the US-China trade war. That’s been led by Japan’s Nikkei (-1.43%), but there’ve also been losses in China for the CSI 300 (-0.58%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.66%). Meanwhile in South Korea, the KOSPI (-0.88%) has also fallen, which comes as the Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged at 2.5%, in line with expectations. And in the FX space, the Japanese yen has weakened against the US dollar for a 5th consecutive session and is now trading at 152.45 per dollar.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include US existing home sales for September, the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index for October, and the Euro Area’s preliminary consumer confidence measure for October. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the BoE’s Dhingra.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/23/2025 - 08:53

The Bezzel: Is It 1925 All Over Again?

Authored by Christopher Whalen via DailyReckoning.com,

During a conference call with investors last week, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon made a memorable response to a question from Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo about the collapse of a subprime auto lender called Tricolor that cost the bank $170 million. Tricolor went bankrupt due to allegations of fraud, including double-pledging of collateral, which led lenders to halt financing.

“Mike, you should assume that whenever something like that happens, we scour all process, all procedures, all underwriting, all everything, and we think we’re okay in other stuff,” said Dimon.

“But I – my antenna goes up when things like that happen. And I probably shouldn’t say this, but when you see one cockroach, there are probably more.”

Dimon’s instinct about there being more big credit problems lurking beneath the surface of the US economy is correct, but even he may not fully appreciate the scale of the threat. The collapse of auto parts maker First Brands has revealed an enormous fraud at the center of the $2 trillion market for leveraged loans. Based on losses reported so far and the numerous acts of fraud emerging, half of the leverage loan market may end up being lost to investors.

There are a growing number of examples of malinvestment in the US economy, but much of it springs from excessive liquidity supplied by the Federal Open Market Committee. Since 2008 and particularly since COVID in 2020, the Fed did too much. While classical economic theory states that reserves at the central bank do not impact prices, in fact we can see that the “ample reserve” policy first adopted by the Fed under Chairman Ben Bernanke fueled a massive increase in fraudulent activity and inflation.

In a speech to the National Association of Business Economists, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell admitted that the Fed added too much liquidity to the economy after 2020. “With the clarity of hindsight, we could have—and perhaps should have—stopped asset purchases sooner,” said Powell. “Our real-time decisions were intended to serve as insurance against downside risks.” But the downside risk created by the FOMC is that mortgage delinquency may rise dramatically even as interest rates fall into 2026.

Even as the Trump Administration looks for ways to boost housing, this by again lowering interest rates, there are troubling signs of both inflation and deflation in the residential sector. In blue states, home prices continue to rise because of a dearth of new home construction. In red states that are more attractive for home builders, however, over supply is starting to force prices down from Florida to Texas. Lower interest rates may slow the home price correction, but we anticipate a significant drop in home values by 2028.

But beyond the housing market, the low-interest rate environment created by the FOMC has spawned an epidemic of fraud throughout the public and private credit markets. When we say private credit, we don’t refer only to the subprime assets being peddled to retail investors by the major Wall Street firms, but Main Street kind of fraud. The vast waves of liquidity provided by the Fed provided a ready environment for all types of commonplace swindles to proliferate.

“Gerald Marcil, a Los Angeles landlord and Republican donor, is among investors accused by Zions Bancorporation and Western Alliance Bancorporation of manipulating loan structures, leading to nearly $160 million in alleged losses for the banks,”reports The Real Deal, an invaluable publication that covers the national real estate market.

Space does not permit us to tell you the full story of this all too typical California saga of bait and switch in commercial real estate.

Meanwhile, the CEO of Jefferies & Co, lead banker for First Brands, said that his bank likewise had been the victim of deception. Chief executive Rich Handler insists that the unravelling of First Brands, which could involve tens of billions in losses to investors, had not inflicted significant damage on the bank’s core business. Jefferies sold most of the debt raised for First Brands to investors. These victims of fraud will now look to the investment house for reparations.

The tales of woe regarding the Fed-fueled credit boom in commercial real estate and private credit will continue to grow in number, but it is important to point out that the relatively high-interest rates that prevailed in the US since 2022 have not prevented massive stock bubbles in technology stocks involved in “artificial intelligence” or AI, the latest marketing scam concocted by Wall Street to drive commissions.

Most of the private ventures formed around creating large language models to implement AI, for example, will never be profitable. An August 2025 MIT study found that 95% of AI projects within companies fail to deliver a positive return on investment or significant profit gains. The investment bankers will profit, however, proving yet again that the pages of the calendar may change, but human nature does not.

In the classic book, The Great Crash 1929, John Kenneth Galbraith argued that the crash revealed widespread financial misconduct, including embezzlement and other forms of bad behavior that had gone unnoticed during the preceding boom. The Roaring Twenties was an era characterized by rampant speculation in stocks and Florida real estate, which created an environment where it was difficult to distinguish between legitimate and fraudulent activity.

The Florida land boom crashed in 1926, primarily due to a combination of over-speculation, a credit crunch, and devastating hurricanes that year and in 1928. Even Charles Ponzi, whose eponymous scheme collapsed in 1920, later was involved in the Florida land business and was one of many swindlers whose scams were exposed. Florida real estate prices did not recover from the Great Depression until the 1970s. And here we are a century later, with Florida real estate prices starting to weaken.

Significantly Galbraith also described a form of fraud he called “the bezzle,” where fraud and theft are hidden, with the discovery of the crime only occurring after the passage of time.

Galbraith explained that the speculative excess of the era created an illusion of wealth that made it difficult to distinguish between genuine and dishonest activity. In a 1929 article titled “Everybody Ought to Be Rich,” businessman John J. Raskob promoted the idea that anyone who invested a small amount each month could become wealthy.

As the US moves into 2026, you can be pretty sure that reports of losses to banks and nonbanks will multiply as the Roaring Twenties of the 21st Century grind to a close.

Major Wall Street firms from JPMorgan to Goldman Sachs to Jefferies have already reported lapses in credit management and due diligence, the result of an era where bankers feel entitled to a certain level of wealth and are not particularly bothered about how they get it.

But how big is the bezzel in the 21st Century?

*  *  *

Learn more about Christopher Whalen at his website. Also be sure to check out his latest book, Inflated: Money, Debt, and the American Dream.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/23/2025 - 08:25

Congress Should Miss Their Paychecks Too

Authored by Tiffany Smiley via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

This week marks the third week of the government shutdown – and there continues to be no end in sight. This week, millions of federal workers officially missed their first paycheck. These workers are staring down the barrel of piling bills; many are unable to put gas in the car or food on the table for their families.

The consequences of a prolonged shutdown are stacking up fast. Federal services are grinding to a halt. Veterans’ career counseling and regional offices have gone dark. Flight delays and travel disruptions are wreaking havoc across the country. And for every week this drags on, the U.S. economy takes a $15 billion hit. A month-long shutdown means 43,000 more Americans are thrown out of work.

And yet, there’s one group that hasn’t missed a single paycheck: members of Congress. While working-class families are about to miss paychecks their livelihoods depend on, fat-cat politicians in Washington continue to get paid. It’s time for Congress to feel the pain they’re inflicting on millions of Americans.

Congress should miss their paychecks.

Arizona Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego displayed the hypocrisy out loud as the shutdown began. In an interview with NBC News, he defended his refusal to forgo his salary during the shutdown, saying, “I’m not wealthy, and I have three kids. I would basically be missing, you know, mortgage payments, rent payments, child support.”

Exactly, Senator. That’s precisely what millions of everyday Americans are facing right now.

Ask yourself – would this shutdown even happen in the first place if members of Congress couldn’t make their own mortgage payments or pay their own rent? If they were scrambling to fill up their gas tanks or stay on their feet? Not a chance.

My heart breaks for the families who are beginning to feel this impact while their members of Congress treat this like a political game. I’ve lived this struggle myself. In 2005, my husband Scotty was blinded by an IED suicide bomb while serving our country in Iraq. While he lay in a coma at Walter Reed, I was forced to navigate a system that offered no real support – not for him, and certainly not for me. I had resigned from my job to be by his side, while facing student loan debt and mounting care expenses. There were no safety nets, no clear guidance – just bureaucracy and silence.

That was 20 years ago. Shamefully, not much has changed. While I’m thrilled and thankful to see President Trump ensure that members of our military get paid, law enforcement, air traffic controllers, and millions of moms and dads are still missing paychecks.

I know firsthand what it’s like to take on the government with no help, no roadmap, and no reward. If we’re serious about solving these systemic failures, then we must start by holding Congress accountable – not just for writing policy, but for standing behind the people they claim to serve.

Meanwhile, our Democratic politicians continue to prolong the government shutdown – voting six times to keep the government shuttered. While Democrats vote for a continued shutdown, President Trump and congressional Republicans are fighting for a clean-funding extension that will immediately open our government. Passing this stopgap funding measure gives Congress time to pass its funding bills through regular order and continue this historically bipartisan process.

I’ll be blunt: Enough is enough. If the American people have to feel the pain of a government shutdown, members of Congress should be in the foxhole with them.

They should be the ones holding the empty bank account. Imagine the urgency if every member of Congress faced foreclosure notices. Some members, both Republicans and Democrats, have already pledged to forgo their pay; others, like Gallego, should join them and stand with the people they claim to represent. Withhold congressional salaries until the government is funded. And watch how fast the government gets funded.

This shutdown isn't about policy – it’s about power. Democrats are gambling with American families’ paychecks to score political points. Senate Democrats need to pass the clean funding extension or face the consequences of their own making.

Let’s end this farce and stop paying Congress. And reopen the government today.

Tiffany Smiley is a former U.S. Senate candidate from Washington State and founder of Endeavor PAC.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/23/2025 - 08:05

Nexperia-Linked Chip Shortages Ripple Through Global Auto Supply Chain, From Germany To Japan

One day after German tabloid newspaper Bild reported that Volkswagen had suspended production of the Golf at its Wolfsburg factory due to a worsening semiconductor shortage caused by a supply stoppage of Nexperia chips, the Dutch chipmaker, recently seized by the Netherlands government, warned Japanese automakers on Thursday that it may no longer be able to guarantee chip supply. The chip crisis spreading from Europe to Japan has set off alarm bells across the industry.

Bloomberg reports that the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA) has confirmed that its members, Toyota, Nissan, and Honda, have received warnings from Nexperia about chip supply woes and are working with customers to mitigate disruptions. 

JAMA cautioned that chip shortages could have a "serious impact" on global auto production and urged governments to reach a "prompt and practical solution."

"The chips manufactured by the affected manufacturers are important parts used in electronic control units, etc., and we recognize that this incident will have a serious impact on the global production of our member companies," JAMA wrote in a statement, adding, "We hope that the countries involved will come to a prompt and practical solution."

Earlier this month, the Dutch government escalated tensions with Beijing by seizing Nexperia under a 1952 law aimed at securing domestic control over semiconductor supply, following U.S. pressure to curb Chinese ownership ties. Nexperia's Chinese parent, Wingtech Technology, and its China unit have publicly disputed the seizure. 

The move escalates frictions between Western countries and China over access to high-end technology such as advanced semiconductors and critical raw materials. China has hit back by restricting rare earth mineral exports to the U.S. as these troubling developments appear to be unfolding before President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet at the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia between Oct. 26 and 28. Think of it as leverage before both sides sit down at the negotiating table. 

The first signs of Nexperia-related chip disruptions impacting global auto supply chains emerged from Germany on Wednesday following a report from Bild. 

The local paper said Volkswagen suspended its Golf production lines at its Wolfsburg factory yesterday. 

Production line stoppages will likely impact tens of thousands of employees in Europe's largest economy. Other automakers like BMW, Mercedes, and Daimler are monitoring the situation, though their production continues, according to Bild. 

The latest developments in the Nexperia turmoil that's now rippling through the global auto sector:

• Dutch Govt Suddenly Seizes Control Of China-Owned Chip Maker

• Chipmaker Nexperia's China Arm Tells Staff To Ignore Dutch HQ, Deepening Semiconductor Split

• VW Halts Golf Production In Wolfsburg As Chip Shortage Worsens

With the week winding down, the world's attention turns to Trump-Xi (and also Trump-Modi) meetings to see whether the two global superpowers can ease trade tensions and move toward a potential deal. Naturally, traders will be watching every word closely.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/23/2025 - 07:45