Rubio Announces Sweeping Reorganization Of State Department

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a plan on Tuesday to significantly restructure the Department of State to reduce “decades of bloat.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio during a final press conference at the meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Ministers of Foreign Affairs in Brussels on April 4, 2025. Jacquelyn Martin/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

“In its current form, the (State) Department is bloated, bureaucratic, and unable to perform its essential diplomatic mission in this new era of great power competition,” Rubio said in a statement. “Over the past 15 years, the Department’s footprint has had unprecedented growth and costs have soared ... but far from seeing a return on investment.”

An organizational chart shows Rubio’s plan on how to restructure the agency and eliminate several departments.

Rubio released a longer, separate post on Substack that singled out the Under Secretary for Civilian Security, Human Rights, and Democracy, which oversees the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor and the Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration, among others.

That umbrella group, which is sometimes called “J Family,” will be put under the new Coordinator for Foreign Assistance and Humanitarian Affairs, Rubio said.

“The Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor became a platform for left-wing activists to wage vendettas against ‘anti-woke’ leaders in nations such as Poland, Hungary, and Brazil, and to transform their hatred of Israel into concrete policies such as arms embargoes,” the statement said.

The Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration, he said, “funneled millions of taxpayer dollars to international organizations and NGOs that facilitated mass migration around the world, including the invasion on our southern border.”

Rubio also provided an update on the U.S. Agency for International Development, or USAID, and the work carried out by the Elon Musk-run Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) by saying that transferring USAID’s duties to the aforementioned offices within the State Department would effectively undo DOGE’s work.

Earlier this year, the Trump administration moved to shut down USAID’s headquarters, lay off most of its staff, and replace its director. Although lawsuits have been filed against the administration, an appeals court last month ruled that DOGE can continue to downsize the agency.

More broadly, across the State Department, “redundant offices will also be removed, and non-statutory programs misaligned with America’s core national interests will cease to exist,” he said. “All non-security foreign assistance will be consolidated in regional bureaus charged with implementing U.S. foreign policy in specific geographic areas.”

Rubio also provided another example of what he said was a State Department office that allegedly operated in a rogue manner. The former Global Engagement Center, which was closed down this past week, had allegedly “engaged with media outlets and platforms to censor speech it disagreed with, including that of the President of the United States,” Rubio said, adding that the agency also attempted to circumvent efforts by Congress to close it.

Rubio reposted an excerpt of a Free Press article shared by its editor Bari Weiss on Tuesday that provided more details about the plan. It said, in part, that 132 offices within the department will be shut down, including ones designed to counter extremism, promote “democracy overseas,” and “prevent war crimes.”

Undersecretaries in the State Department were told to provide a plan within 30 days on how to reduce staffing within their departments by 15 percent, the Rubio-endorsed post said.

The Epoch Times contacted the State Department for comment on Tuesday.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/23/2025 - 08:45

Futures Surge After Trump Tones Down Rhetoric On China, Powell

US futures jumped and the dollar stabilized after president Trump said he has no intention of firing Powell, easing some fears on the Fed’s independence, while he also plans to be “very nice” to China in trade talks and sees China tariff coming down substantially which hinted a potential pivot in trade policy. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 2.3%, with Nasdaq futures surging 2.7%. Pre-market, Mag 7 names are all higher led by TSLA (+6.4%, after Musk said that his time on DOGE will significantly drop next month), NVDA (+4.9%), AMZN (+4.1%) and META (+3.7%). Intel rose 3% on reports it will cut more than 20% of its staff, a move aimed at eliminating bureaucracy. 10y TSY yields are down 10bps to 4.30% as longer-dated Treasuries rally, recovering from selling on concerns about the Fed’s continued independence; the USD reversed earlier gains. Commodities are mostly higher led by oil (+1.6%) and base metals; gold is 1.3% lower.

In premarket trading, Tesla led the Mag 7 stocks higher as CEO Elon Musk pledged to pull back from his work with the US government to concentrate on the electric-vehicle company (Tesla +7.4%, Alphabet +2.4%, Nvidia +5.7%, Amazon +5%, Apple +3.3%, Microsoft +2.6%, Meta +4.7%). Chip, cryptocurrency-linked stocks and US-listed Chinese companies rally after Trump said China tariffs will drop if the two countries can reach a deal. The president also said he had no intention of firing Powell. Semiconductors gained (SMCI +6.7%, Nvidia +5.7%, Dell +5.5%) as did Apple suppliers: (Qualcomm +2.6%, Broadcom +4.6%, Cirrus Logic +4.3%). Crypto-linked stocks jumped after bitcoin surged above $94,000 (Robinhood +8.1%, Coinbase +4.2%, MicroStrategy +3.4%). Here are some other notable movers:

• AT&T gains 4% after adding 324,000 mobile-phone customers in the first quarter, beating Wall Street projections for 254,000.
• Boston Scientific rises 6% after the medical device firm boosted its net sales and adjusted profit forecast for the full year.
• Bristol-Myers Squibb falls 4.7% after the company’s treatment for schizophrenia failed in a study designed to expand its use, denting the company’s ambitions to turn it into a blockbuster.
• Enphase Energy drops 11% after the solar equipment maker’s revenue forecast missed analyst estimates at the midpoint. Morgan Stanley downgrades the stock to underweight from equal-weight.
• Intel rises 4% as the company is poised to announce plans this week to cut more than 20% of its staff, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.
• Packaging drops 4.5% after the containerboard producer p gave a second-quarter earnings per share forecast that was below the average analyst estimate.
• Pegasystems soars 26% after the customer relationship management software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations.
• Philip Morris climbs 3% after the tobacco company boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year; the guidance beat the average analyst estimate.
• Sportradar slips 3.6% after shareholders including an affiliate of the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, an affiliate of Technology Crossover Ventures, and Sportradar CEO Carsten Koerl offered 23 million class A shares via Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan.
• Vertiv Holdings advances 18% after the company boosted its net sales guidance for the full year.
• XPeng ADRs jumps 8% after the Chinese electric vehicle maker unveiled a fast-charging variant of its P7+ sedan model at the 2025 Shanghai auto show.

Wall Street is set to build on the biggest equity gains in two weeks, with S&P 500 futures climbing 2.3% after Trump allayed fears that he plans to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Optimism of easing US-China trade tensions added to the risk-on mood. Treasuries also rallied as worries about threats to Powell’s position faded: 10-year yields dropped ten basis points to 4.30%. A gauge of dollar strength steadied after rallying from a 16-month low. Bitcoin stormed above $90,000 for the first time since early March. Gold fell as demand for havens cooled. Oil extended its rebound.

Trump said Tuesday he had no intention of firing Powell, despite his frustration with the Fed not moving more quickly to lower borrowing costs. The president posted on social media last week that the Fed chair’s “termination cannot come fast enough!” His rebuke of the Fed and comments from officials that Trump was studying whether he could replace its chief had sent the dollar to the lowest level since December 2023.

Trump’s comments on the Fed chief late Tuesday are a walk-back from opinions expressed in the past week that sparked concerns about the US central bank’s independence. On the trade front, Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that a standoff with China can be de-escalated. On trade, Trump said he plans to be “very nice” to China in any talks and that tariffs will drop if the two countries can reach a deal. The US president also said that final tariffs on China wouldn’t be “anywhere near” the 145% level set.

Still, gains come with a warning from some on Wall Street of possible “head fakes,” given Trump’s unpredictability. Stock trading volumes were light on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 remains down about 7% since Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. Some money managers, like Janus Henderson, are looking to cut exposure to the US. 

“I took the view that the actual probability of Powell getting sacked was close to zero, but the tuning down of the rhetoric on China is clearly a relief,” said Francois Rimeu, a strategist at La Francaise AM in Paris.

“It’s really hard to see the endgame on trade,” said Rimeu at La Francaise AM. “Investors need to prepare in the event that say, in three months, we land with US tariffs that are manageable for the global economy.”

“If one is optimistic, one can take the view that Trump is slowly backing down on trade and on firing Powell,” said Gillles Guibout, head of European equities at AXA IM. “But he has a structural tendency to create uncertainty and now there’s a real defiance among international investors, and that’s palpable in the dollar.”

It’s also a busy day for earnings, with Boeing rising in premarket after first-quarter sales topped estimates. AT&T climbed after a strong first-quarter report. Philip Morris gained as its earnings forecast beat estimates. SAP soared the most in six years after profit at Europe’s most valuable company exceeded expectations. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 1.8%, led by gains in mining and technology shares. SAP soared as much as 11% after the German software firm reported profit and free cash flow that topped estimates; Reckitt Benckiser was the biggest laggard. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• SAP shares surge as much as 11% after the German software company reported a 29% growth in current cloud backlog on constant-currency terms, indicating resilient demand for its cloud-based software
• BE Semiconductor soars as much as 10% after the Dutch firm said two leading memory chipmakers placed orders for its hybrid bonders, a chip-packaging technology used to connect chips and enhance their performance
• Croda shares rise as much as 10%, their best one-day gain in 14 years, after the chemicals maker reported earnings and analysts pointed to a strong performance across divisions
• Valmet shares rise as much as 9.6% after the supplier of tech and services to the pulp and paper industries reported higher order numbers than anticipated and reiterated its annual outlook
• Babcock International shares rise as much as 6%, in sixth straight day of gains and hitting the highest level since July 2018, after the support services company released a pre-close update
• Randstad shares rise as much as 6.2% after the Dutch staffing firm’s earnings beat estimates with a smaller-than-expected contraction in first-quarter organic revenue, with analysts pointing to stable trends
• Akzo Nobel shares rise as much as 8.2% after the specialty chemicals firm posted first-quarter Ebitda that was ahead of consensus and reaffirmed its adjusted Ebitda forecast for the full year
• Reckitt Benckiser shares drop as much as 4.7% after the personal care and homecare product maker delivered like-for-like growth below expectations following a miss in North America and Europe
• European defense shares fall, with traders pointing to a Financial Times report that said Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered to halt his country’s invasion of Ukraine across the current front line
• Temenos shares drop as much as 8.3%, the most since October, after reporting results that reflect a difficult start to the year and add risk to the company’s reiterated full-year forecasts
• Hochschild Mining shares plunge as much as 17%, the most in over three months, after first-quarter production fell short of expectations. Analysts point to poor weather and challenges at the Mara Rosa mine
• OVH Groupe slides as much as 11%, following two sessions of strong gains, after Morgan Stanley downgraded to underweight and said the cloud computing company’s valuation appears stretched

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rallied after President Donald Trump’s administration indicated softer stances on trade with China and Jerome Powell’s tenure as Federal Reserve chair. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.9%, with TSMC and Alibaba among the biggest contributors. Benchmarks in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Japan led gains in the region. One by one, equity benchmarks in Asia are recouping losses suffered since Trump’s announcement of inceased tariffs on April 2. India, which has emerged as a relative safe haven amid the tariff war, was the first major global market to wipe out such declines last week. South Korea and Australia stock gauges did so on Wednesday, after Indonesia on Tuesday.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.1%, wiping out an earlier 0.6% gain; the US currency fell versus all G-10 currencies bar the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc; the higher-risk Australian dollar rose, gained amid hopes of easing trade tensions between China and the US. The Swiss franc falls 0.2% and to the bottom of the G-10 FX pile while the yen weakens 0.1% against the greenback.

In rates, treasuries rose with 30-year yield falling nearly 15bp to week’s low 4.73%; 10-year yields declined 10bp to 4.30% while short-end tenors were little changed, leaving curve spreads dramatically flatter. US session includes 5-year note auction and several Fed speakers. German bonds drop, led by short-term debt, despite downbeat euro-area PMI data. The UK gilt curve flattens as long-end bonds rally following the DMO’s shift in bond sales further away from long maturities, narrowing the 2s30s spread by 12bps. while 2-year yields was little changed, leaving 2s10s and 5s30s curves nearly 10bp flatter on the day. Treasury auction cycle continues with $70 billion 5-year notes sale at 1pm New York time; Tuesday’s 2-year tailed by 0.6bp. WI 5-year yield near 3.955% is about 14.5bp richer than last month’s auction, which tailed by 0.5bp. This week’s cycle concludes Thursday with $44 billion 7-year note sale

In commodities, spot gold tumbles $47 to $3,334/oz as haven demand ebbs. Oil prices advance, with WTI rising 1.6% to $64.70 a barrel. Bitcoin jumps over 3% and above $94,000.

Today's econ calendar includes April S&P Global manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and March new home sales (10am). Fed releases latest Beige book at 2pm. Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee (9am), Musalem (9:30am, 2:35pm), Waller (9:35am) and Hammack (6:30pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +2.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +2.5%
• Russell 2000 mini +2.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +1.8%
• DAX +2.9%, CAC 40 +2.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield -6 basis points at 4.34%
• VIX -2.3 points at 28.31
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1221.89
• euro -0.2% at $1.14
• WTI crude +1.8% at $64.8/barrel

Top Overnight News

• President Trump said he is not planning to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell prompting some relief from investors who had been spooked by the White House’s commentary towards the Fed in recent weeks. WSJ
• Trump suggested tariffs on China may be “substantially” cut if a deal is reached. China said the door was “wide open” for talks. BBG
• Tesla shares climbed (+6% premkt) premarket despite an earnings miss after Elon Musk said he’ll pull back “significantly” from DOGE in May. BBG
• JD Vance said the US has issued a “very explicit proposal” to Russia and Ukraine on a path forward to a peace deal and that territory concessions are needed.
• Fed's Kugler (voter) said tariff increases are significantly larger than previously expected and economic effects of tariffs and uncertainty will likely be larger than anticipated. Kugler added that Fed policy is well-positioned for macroeconomic changes and she supports holding the policy rate steady as long as upside risks to inflation continue, whilst economic activity and employment remain stable.
• Trade war is starting to slam Europe's economy. The euro-area’s flash composite PMI gauge fell more than expected this month to 50.1, as both the German and French measures missed. The UK gauge also fell more than estimated. BBG
• Talks between the U.S., Ukraine and European officials to discuss ending Russia's war in Ukraine faltered on Wednesday as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio abruptly cancelled his trip to London and negotiations were downgraded. Rubio's no show prompted a broader meeting of foreign ministers from Ukraine, Britain, France and Germany to be cancelled, although talks continued at a lower level. RTRS
• UK government borrowing exceeded official forecasts made just last month. The budget deficit in the full fiscal year through March was £151.9 billion, above the OBR’s £137.3 billion projection. BBG
• The US wants the UK to lower levies and other non-tariff barriers on a variety of US goods, including a reduction in its automotive tariff from 10% to 2.5%, the WSJ reported. Chancellor Rachel Reeves will meet Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week. BBG

Tariffs/Trade

• "China: Door wide open for trade talks with US", according to Sky News Arabia
• US President Trump said they are doing fine with China and are going to be very nice with China, while he added that they have to make a deal and if they don't, the US will set a deal. Trump also stated the tariff on China will not be as high as 145% and will not be anywhere near that level but it won't be zero.
• US is preparing negotiating terms for UK trade talks and will aim for the UK to reduce its automotive tariff from 10% to 2.5%, while the US will also push the UK to relax rules on agricultural imports from the US, including beef and revise rules of origin for goods from each nation, according to Wall Street Journal citing sources.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks rallied amid tailwinds from the US owing to trade deal hopes and after US President Trump softened his rhetoric on Fed Chair Powell in which he stated he has no intention of firing the Fed chair. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in energy and tech with the former supported by a rebound in oil prices and after a quarterly production update from Woodside Energy, while gold miners suffered after the precious metal dropped as the risk-on mood sapped haven demand. Nikkei 225 benefitted from initial currency weakness and briefly surged to above the 35,000 level shortly after the open before fading some of its advances. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied as the Hong Kong benchmark joined in on the broad rally and the mainland was contained despite the encouraging comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent who noted the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and expects the situation to de-escalate, while President Trump said they are going to be very nice with China and that the tariff on China will not be anywhere near the 145% level.

Top Asian News

• Chinese Foreign Ministry said the US cannot say that it wishes to reach an agreement whilst on the other hand maintaining extreme pressure; this is not the correct way to deal with China.
• BoJ Financial System Report said Japan's financial system has been maintaining stability as a whole; Considering that Japanese banks have a certain amount of market risk associated with stockholdings, developments in asset prices warrant attention Since the beginning of April, financial markets at home and abroad have fluctuated significantly. Financial institutions need to be vigilant against materialization of various risks.
• China's Commerce Ministry said China received the EU side's appeal request on intellectual property rights case and will handle it in accordance with relevant rules, while China will work with other multi-party interim arbitration arrangement participants to firmly uphold the rules-based multilateral trading system.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +1.8%) are entirely in the green and with clear outperformance in the DAX 40, which benefits from upside in SAP (+9%) after its Q1 results. A slew of EZ PMIs and the latest ECB Wage Tracker had little impact on the complex. Sentiment in Europe has been lifted in continuation of the upside on Wall Street, in the prior session. The strength follows some positive trade related updates, including; a) US Treasury Secretary Bessent expecting the tariff standoff with China to de-escalate, b) US President Trump saying he has no intention to fire Fed Chair Powell. European sectors hold a clear cyclical bias, in-fitting with the risk tone. Tech is the clear outperformer, with the industry lifted by post-earning strength in SAP. Optimised Personal Care and Utilities, two defensive sectors, find themselves at the foot of the pile.

Top European News

• UBS lowers its 2025 global GDP growth forecast to 2.5% (prev. forecast 2.9%)

FX

• USD is up vs. most peers (ex-Antipodeans) with markets encouraged by two primary inputs. 1) optimism around the trade war following more upbeat comments from US President Trump overnight, reporting yesterday suggesting that Treasury Secretary Bessent sees the current levels of tariff on China as unsustainable and comms from the White House that it is nearing deals with China and India. 2) comments by US President Trump overnight that whilst we wishes for the Fed to lower rates, he is not looking to fire Powell. For today's docket, focus will be on US PMI data and Fed speak from Goolsbee, Musalem, Waller, Hammack. DXY sits towards the top end of Tuesday's 98.01-99.65 range.
• EUR is on the backfoot vs. the USD on account of the current trade optimism with the EUR suffering as its viewed as a liquid alternative to the USD. PMI metrics this morning from France, Germany and the Eurozone have all conformed to the same picture of beats on manufacturing, services and composite missed. EUR/USD has delved as low as 1.1309 before recovering to levels closer to 1.14.
• JPY is a touch softer vs. the USD but notably less so than seen during APAC hours where the pair hit a peak at 143.21 overnight as markets reacted to the positivity on the trade front and comments by US President Trump on Fed Chair Powell. On the trade front, it remains the case that Japan is front of the queue at the White House and comms suggest that a trade agreement to stave off large US tariffs is nearing. USD/JPY is currently holding above the top end of Tuesday's 139.88-141.67 range.
• GBP is on the backfoot vs. the USD with losses briefly exacerbated by a soft outturn for UK PMI metrics which saw the services print unexpectedly slip into contractionary territory, dragging the composite reading with it. Elsewhere, on the trade front, reports state that the US is preparing negotiating terms for UK trade talks and will aim for the UK to reduce its automotive tariff from 10% to 2.5%, while the US will also push the UK to relax rules on agricultural imports from the US. Cable delved as low as 1.3235 overnight before recovering to levels just above the 1.33 mark.
• Antipodeans are the G10 outperformers vs the Dollar, benefiting from the broader risk tone. AUD/USD is yet to reapproach Tuesday's YTD peak at 0.6439. If breached, the 200DMA sits at 0.6470. Similar price action for NZD/USD which sits below yesterday's YTD high at 0.6029.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2116 vs exp. 7.3466 (Prev. 7.1980).

Fixed Income

• USTs are bid with markets encouraged by two primary inputs. 1) optimism around the trade war following more upbeat comments from US President Trump overnight, reporting on Tuesday suggesting that Treasury Secretary Bessent sees the current levels of tariff on China as unsustainable and comms from the White House that it is nearing deals with China and India. 2) comments by US President Trump overnight that whilst we wishes for the Fed to lower rates, he is not looking to fire Powell. Focus now turns to US PMI, a slew of Fed speakers and 2yr FRN and 5yr auctions - as a reminder, Tuesday's 2yr outing was soft. Jun'25 contract has ventured as high as 111.00+ with the next resistance point coming from the 21st April peak at 111.09.
• Bunds are diverging from their US peers on account of the more encouraging risk tone and increased positivity on the trade front. From a data perspective, PMI metrics this morning from France, Germany and the Eurozone have all conformed to the same picture of beats on manufacturing, services and composite missed. A couple of ECB speakers are on the docket, with focus also on a 2035 Bund auction. Jun'25 Bunds briefly slipped below Tuesday's low at 131.46 before stabilising above the 131.50 mark.
• Gilts are diverging from European peers following the latest update from the DMO which saw it cut GBP 10.4bln from its planned sales of long-dated Gilts and increase sales of short Gilts by GBP 5.6bln. Upside was briefly extended following a soft outturn for UK PMI metrics which saw the services print unexpectedly slip into contractionary territory, dragging the composite reading with it. Jun'25 Gilts have been as high as 92.85 with little in the way of resistance until 93.00. From a yield perspective, the 10yr has bottomed out at 4.515%, failing to test 4.50% to the downside.
• UK DMO revises its 2024/25 Gilt remit to GBP 299.1bln (prev. 299.2bln); cuts GBP 10.4bln from planned sales of long-dated Gilts, increases sales of short gilts by 5.6bln; increases unallocated portion of Gilt issuance remit by GBP 4.7bln Increases net T-bill issuance to GBP +10bln (prev. +5bln).

Commodities

• Firmer trade across the crude complex with optimism was facilitated by the more sanguine language from the US regarding China, whilst US President Trump also dialled down his tone regarding the dismissal of Fed Chair Powell, which, in turn, boosted risk sentiment. WTI currently resides in a USD 63.76-64.84/bbl range while its Brent counterpart trades in a USD 67.68-68.63/bbl parameter.
• Mixed trade across precious metals, with spot silver outperforming following yesterday's underperformance. Investors are unwinding some risk premium from gold following the more sanguine language from the US regarding China, whilst US President Trump also dialled down his tone regarding the dismissal of Fed Chair Powell, in turn boosting risk sentiment. Spot gold trades in a USD 3,291.73-3,386.77/oz range.
• Firmer trade across base metals amid the constructive risk tone, although gains overnight were limited by the unambitious performance in Chinese equities. 3M LME copper currently resides in a USD 9,380.60-9,483.73/t range.
• IEA Executive Director Birol said oil prices may see further downward pressure, via Bloomberg TV; expects oil demand to slow down.
• Shanghai Futures Exchange to adjust the transaction fees for Gold's June future contract.
• Azerbaijan said average oil price seen at USD 70bbl in 2025 (prev. forecast USD 77bbl).
• Norway's Prelim March oil production 1.757mln BPD (prev. 1.723mln BPD); Gas production 10.9bcm (prev. 9.9bcm).
• Iran set May Iranian light crude price to Asia at Oman/Dubai plus USD 1.65/bbl.
• Peru's Antamina copper mine reported the death of an operations manager in an incident at the mining camp, while Antamina launched a total shutdown for security as it investigates the accident.
• Corporation National del Cobre de Chile market intelligence and strategy specialist Eric Medel said the upside potential of copper has been reduced and copper prices are likely to remain bearish in the short term amid trade war risks.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli army said it monitored the launch of a missile from Yemen towards Israeli territory and air defence systems were activated, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said the new US energy sanctions contradict Washington's claims of dialogue with Tehran.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• UK government said Ukraine peace talks with international foreign ministers have been postponed, via AFP.
• Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said the Chinese ambassador was summoned and told of 'serious concern' over Chinese involvement on Russia's side in the war.
• US President Trump's "final offer" for peace requires Ukraine to accept Russian occupation, according to Axios. It was also reported that the US proposed recognising Crimea as Russian as peace talks ramp up and proposals include eventually lifting sanctions against Russia under a future accord, according to WaPo.
• UK Foreign Secretary Lammy said the UK is working with the US, Ukraine and Europe for peace and to put an end to Russian President Putin's illegal invasion, while he added that talks continue at a pace and officials will meet in London today.
• Russian President Putin reportedly offered to halt the invasion of Ukraine across the current front line as part of efforts to reach a peace deal with US President Trump, according to FT.
• Russia launched a large drone attack on east, south and central Ukraine, which damaged civilian infrastructure, according to regional officials.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Apr 18 MBA Mortgage Applications -12.7%, prior -8.5%
• 9:45 am: Apr P S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 49, prior 50.2
• 9:45 am: Apr P S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, est. 52.6, prior 54.4
• 9:45 am: Apr P S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, est. 52, prior 53.5
• 10:00 am: Mar New Home Sales, est. 685k, prior 676k
• 10:00 am: Mar New Home Sales MoM, est. 1.33%, prior 1.8%

Central Banks (All Times ET):

• 9:00 am: Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Opening Remarks
• 9:30 am: Fed’s Musalem Gives Opening Remarks
• 9:35 am: Fed’s Waller Gives Opening Remarks
• 2:35 pm: Fed’s Musalem Gives Informal Closing Remarks
• 6:30 pm: Fed’s Hammack Speaks on Balance Sheet

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It was my first day back yesterday after a 2 week break that in some ways was a one week break after Liberation Day impinged on much of the first week. The highlight was speaking on a conference call whilst on a chairlift. We had a good week and a bit on the slopes in glorious sunshine though, followed by a few days at home where I won a big golf competition (although not quite as big as Rory McIlroy's which I loved), and I caddied for my twins in a national under 8 tournament. My identical twins have totally different golf swings which is strange. Talking of identical twins, the most remarkable story yesterday was a global viral video of two Australian female twins reliving their horrific carjacking ordeal. If you haven't seen it search "in sync twins" online and be prepared to be dazzled. My identical twins don't stop fighting long enough to be able to do what these twins can do.

Markets have started to sync up much more positively over the last 24 hours after Easter Monday's fraught US session (S&P 500 -2.36%) when fears of Powell being replaced by Trump dominated. Yesterday was already seeing most of those losses erased before markets powered past them just after Europe went home as Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested at a private event that the stand-off with China was unsustainable and that he expects de-escalation. The S&P 500 closed +2.51% higher with the strongest performance since the 90-day tariff extension was announced on April 9th. Elsewhere the Dollar index (+0.65%), US HY (-15bps) and 30yr USTs (-2.5bps) also rallied.

Nevertheless, markets remain skittish from day to day, and with the VIX (-3.25pts) still above 30 (30.57 close) we're certainly not out of the woods. But for now, the mood has turned more positive, also helped by other constructive headlines around trade talks yesterday, for instance Politico reporting that the US is nearing framework agreements with Japan and India. Gold did take a rare pause for breath after hitting a fresh record high earlier in the day to close -1.27% at $3,381/oz. But note it's up +9.25% since Liberation Day and +28.81% YTD.

The headlines kept coming after the US close though. Firstly, Tesla’s Q1 results saw sizeable misses on both revenue ($19.34bn vs $21.37bn expected) and operating income ($399m vs $1.13bn exp.), with the company saying it would “revisit” the 2025 revenue guidance in its Q2 update. Nonetheless, the company’s shares gained around +5% in after-hours trading as CEO Elon Musk touted the prospects for the company’s autonomous vehicle and robot businesses and said that he would “significantly” pull back from his government work and devote “far more of my time to Tesla” starting next month. The stock had risen +4.60% in yesterday’s regular session, though this still left it -41.07% YTD.

An even bigger story for markets after the close was Trump’s comments that he has “no intention of firing” Fed Chair Powell, which has helped the rally continue. Equity futures on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are trading +1.43% and +1.65% higher as I type. The 10yr Treasury yield is -5.3bps lower at 4.35% after a modest -0.9bp move on Tuesday, while the dollar index is another +0.40% higher. The Hang Seng (+2.40%) is leading gains in Asia, stretching its gains to a third consecutive session with the Nikkei (+2.04%), the KOSPI (+1.56%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.48%) also among the top performers. Meanwhile, mainland Chinese stocks are far more muted with the CSI (+0.24%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.05%) only just above flat.

This morning we’ve also started to get some of the April flash PMIs from around the world. These will be intensely watched, as they are one of the first indicators we have for how the global economy has reacted to the tariff announcements at the start of the month. Ahead of the European PMIs this morning, yesterday saw a concerning signal from the euro area flash consumer confidence print, which posted its largest monthly decline since the 2022 energy shock, falling to its lowest level since November 2023.

Overnight Japan's factory activity shrank for the tenth consecutive month in April, coming in at 48.5, a touch above the 48.4 reading in March as new orders declined at the steepest rate in over a year amid US tariff concerns. Conversely, Japan's service sector experienced a robust rebound, with the au Jibun Bank services PMI climbing to 52.2. Meanwhile, the overall composite PMI expanded to 51.1 in April from 48.9 in March, after its first decline in five months in the previous month.

Elsewhere, Australia’s private sector's business activity slightly slowed as the flash services PMI dropped to 51.4 in April from a reading of 51.6 in March. At the same time, the manufacturing PMI edged down to 51.7 in April, compared to 52.1 in March. The composite PMI fell from 51.6 to 51.4.

Back to markets yesterday and the US saw a very broad-based advance, with every S&P 500 industry group rising on the day, along with 494 companies. Indeed, that matched the number of gainers that we saw in the S&P’s +9.52% surge on April 9, making it the joint broadest advance in the last two years on this metric. The move was also helped by the Magnificent 7 (+3.02%), which managed to snap a run of 5 consecutive daily declines, with all of the Mag-7 advancing by at least 2%.

US Treasuries were another asset that unwound the previous day’s move, with a notable curve flattening as investors grew a bit more optimistic on the US outlook and took out some of the risk premium they’d been assigning to long-end Treasuries over recent days. The 30yr yield (-2.5bps) fell back to 4.88%, moving off from its 3-month high on Monday, with the 30yr real yield down by a larger -4.8bps to 2.63%. By contrast, the 2yr yield (+5.5bps) moved up to 3.82% following the risk-on tone as well as a soft 2yr auction.

Back in Europe, the performance was much more muted given markets were closed on Monday, so we didn’t see the big rebound that took place in the US but we didn't see it respond to the fall on Monday either. Nevertheless, it was still a decent session, with the STOXX 600 (+0.25%) posting a modest gain, alongside a larger advance for the DAX (+0.41%), the CAC 40 (+0.56%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.64%). Sovereign bonds also rallied, with yields on 10yr bunds (-2.7bps), OATs (-2.7bps) and BTPs (-3.6bps) all falling back. French OATs had earlier spiked by a couple of basis points following a Bloomberg report that President Macron had consulted his inner circle about whether to hold snap elections as soon as the autumn. That meant investors got a fresh reminder of French political risk, but the reaction unwound by the close and the current spread to bunds (77bps) is still some way beneath its recent peak of 88bps in early December, shortly before PM Michel Barnier was defeated in a no confidence vote.

In other news, yesterday saw the IMF slash their global growth forecasts relative to January, with widespread downgrades after the US tariff announcements. The global forecast for 2025 was cut half a point to 2.8%, and next year’s was also reduced by three-tenths to 3.0%. Those negative revisions happened across every region, although the US saw a particularly sharp downgrade of nine-tenths to 1.8%. Otherwise, Mexico saw an even larger 1.7pp downgrade, and is now projected to have a to -0.3% contraction. Europe wasn’t affected quite as much, although Germany was downgraded three-tenths this year to show zero growth, following on from two annual contractions in 2023 and 2024.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the flash PMIs for April from the US and Europe. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Goolsbee, Musalem, Waller and Hammack, the ECB’s Knot, Villeroy and Lane, and the BoE’s Pill and Breeden. Finally, today’s earnings releases include IBM, AT&T and Boeing.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/23/2025 - 08:26

Intel Reportedly Slashing Workforce To 2007 Levels

Intel's new turnaround strategy aims to prepare it for the 2030s. This includes a potential partnership with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to bolster 'America First' advanced chip production and a deal with Silver Lake Management to offload its programmable chip unit, Altera. But the overhaul doesn't stop there—Intel is also expected to continue addressing its bloated workforce with another round of cuts sometime this week.

If Intel wants to compete effectively in the 2030s, it must "streamline management and rebuild an engineering-driven culture," according to a new Bloomberg report that cited sources who say a massive 20% workforce reduction will be announced imminently. 

Data from Bloomberg shows that Intel went on a hiring spree during Covid but has since been trimming its workforce. Last August, the chipmaker laid off 15,000 employees, and as of Q4 2024, had about 109,000 employees on its payroll.

The incoming cuts will bring total workforce levels back to a range seen right before the GFC (2007 level: 86k workforce) —or about 18 years ago. 

Intel has been struggling for a while, and in recent quarters, management has been attempting to right the sinking ship with a turnaround plan:

• Intel, TSMC Tentatively Agree On Chipmaking JV In 'America First' Era

• Intel To Sell 51% Of Altera To Silver Lake In $8.75 Billion Deal As Turnaround Accelerates

In February, Robert W. Baird analysts wrote in a note to clients that the Trump administration was working to broker a JV between Intel and TSMC, one which would focus on something we said last August has excess value at the Intel enterprise, namely its fabs... 

Intel has 15 fabs; the fabs alone are worth $10bn/each in liquidation value.

The value created by management is negative $50 billion. https://t.co/HkqUQJ4A6J

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 2, 2024

Last week, Reuters reported that new CEO Lip-Bu Tan flattened the leadership team to trim workforce numbers to remove bureaucracy.

Intel shares are up about 5% in premarket trading around the $20 handle. Shares trade at 2010 lows.  

The turnaround won't be easy and will take time. A question for the management team is whether the transformation will be completed before the 2030s. And why is that? Well ... read here.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/23/2025 - 08:05

EU Hits Apple, Meta With €700 Million Fines For Violating Digital Markets Act

European Union regulators fined Apple €500 million ($570 million) and Meta €200 million ($230 million) for violating the Digital Markets Act (DMA). These are the first non-compliance penalties against Silicon Valley tech under the DMA.

The European Commission announced that Apple breached its anti-steering obligation by restricting app developers from directing users to alternative payment offers outside the App Store. As a result, developers and consumers were denied access to cheaper, non-App Store options. Apple must now remove these restrictions and refrain from engaging in similar practices in the future.

"As part of today's decision, the Commission has ordered Apple to remove the technical and commercial restrictions on steering and to refrain from perpetuating the non-compliant conduct in the future, which includes adopting conduct with an equivalent object or effect," the Commission wrote in a statement. 

The Commission noted that it has closed the investigation into Apple's user choice obligations, thanks to proactive engagement by Apple on a compliance resolution.

Meta's fines totaled €200 million for violating the DMA by forcing a "Consent or Pay" model on Facebook and Instagram users to choose between personalized ads (via data sharing) or a paid ad-free experience.

Here's more about Meta's non-DMA compliance:

The Commission found that this model is not compliant with the DMA, as it did not give users the required specific choice to opt for a service that uses less of their personal data but is otherwise equivalent to the 'personalised ads' service. Meta's model also did not allow users to exercise their right to freely consent to the combination of their personal data.

In November 2024, after numerous exchanges with the Commission, Meta introduced another version of the free personalised ads model, offering a new option that allegedly uses less personal data to display advertisements. The Commission is currently assessing this new option and continues its dialogue with Meta, requesting the company to provide evidence of the impact that this new ads model has in practice.

Without prejudice to this ongoing assessment, today's decision finding non-compliance concerns the time period during which end users in the EU were only offered the binary 'Consent or Pay' option between March 2024, when the DMA obligations became legally binding, and November 2024, when Meta's new ads model was introduced.

The Commission outlined that Apple and Meta have two months to comply with DMA compliance - or be faced with another round of fines.

"Today's decisions send a strong and clear message. The Digital Markets Act is a crucial instrument to unlock potential, choice and growth by ensuring digital players can operate in contestable and fair markets. It protects European consumers and levels the playing field," EU antitrust chief Teresa Ribera wrote in a statement. 

Ribera continued: "Apple and Meta have fallen short of compliance with the DMA by implementing measures that reinforce the dependence of business users and consumers on their platforms.

"As a result, we have taken firm but balanced enforcement action against both companies, based on clear and predictable rules. All companies operating in the EU must follow our laws and respect European values," she concluded. 

Threats of retaliation from the Trump administration loom over these tech investigations by European regulators who think they're 'regulators of the world'... Google faces potential fines for business practices relating to its Google Pay app, store, and search engine, which may have violated DMA. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/23/2025 - 07:45

'Building 7 Controlled Demolition?': Republican Senator Plans Shock 9/11 Hearings, Says 'My Eyes Have Been Opened'

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is raising eyebrows after revealing on Benny Johnson’s conservative podcast that he’s pushing for a congressional hearing to examine the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the Twin Towers.

Johnson, who serves on the the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, raised questions about the World Trade Center Building 7’s collapse, saying the documentary film, Calling Out Bravo 7 has sparked “an awful lot of questions.”

Senator Ron Johnson drops BOMBSHELL:

Tells us that 9/11 Hearings are being planned, Building 7 was potentially a "Controlled Demolition"

“Structural Engineers say that thing didn't come down in any other way than controlled demolition. Molten steel. Destruction of evidence. We… pic.twitter.com/aBQzCakll7

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) April 21, 2025

“Well, start with Building 7,” Sen. Johnson told Johnson. “Again, I don’t know if you can find structural engineers other than the ones that have the corrupt investigations like NIST that would say that that thing didn’t come down in any other way than a controlled demolition.”

WTC Building 7:

- Minor office fire

- Not hit by a plane

- Building leaseholder Larry Silverstein says “Pull it”

- Collapsed at free fall speed into its own footprint (2.5 seconds)

No other building has ever collapsed at free fall speed due to fire. Controlled demolitions do pic.twitter.com/0MrBNCKbjm

— LΞIGH (@LeighStewy) September 11, 2024

“Who ordered the removal and the destruction of all that evidence? Totally contrary to any other firefighting investigation procedures. I mean, who ordered that? Who is in charge? I think there’s some basic information. Where’s all the documentation from the NIST investigation?” the Wisconsin lawmaker continued.

“Now, there are a host of questions that I want and I will be asking, quite honestly, now that my eyes have been opened up,” he added.

BUILDING #7 FLASHES AT THE TIME OF COLLAPSE — CONTROLLED DEMOLITION ?
pic.twitter.com/NU0Na0eOVs

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) September 11, 2023

Johnson said he plans to work with former Rep. Curt Weldon (R-PA), who recently appeared on Tucker Carlson’s podcast to discuss 9/11, “to expose what he’s willing to expose.”

Rep. Curt Weldon Tried to Prevent 9-11, and The U.S. Government Shut Him Down pic.twitter.com/5vAzCT4lQJ

— Tucker Carlson Network (@TCNetwork) April 15, 2025

The senator’s comments prompted Johnson to ask: “So we may actually see hearings about this?”

“I think so,” the senator replied while referencing previous efforts to obtain unredacted FBI files on behalf of 9/11 families.

“We want to get those answers, those documents for the families,” the lawmaker replied. “Hopefully, now with this administration, we can find out what is being covered up.”

Sen. Johnson expressed optimism that the Trump administration will authorize the release of 9/11-related documents, despite prior unsuccessful efforts to declassify them.

“We want those made available in terms of what happened. What did the FBI know that happened? So we had engaged with that. It was on a bipartisan basis. We wanted to get those answers, those documents for the families,” Sen. Johnson said. “Again, we didn’t get squat from the FBI. So hopefully now with this administration, I think President Trump should have some interests being a New Yorker himself.”

“What actually happened in 9/11? What do we know? What is being covered up? My guess is there’s an awful lot being covered up in terms of what the American government knows about 9/11,” he added.

Very interesting to say the least...

FDNY announced they were told “it would be taken down” on this news clip. pic.twitter.com/r57PvWUz6S

— Josh’s News, Memes, Photography, & Stuff (@joshbottweet) April 22, 2025

 

*  *  *

Top products at ZeroHedge Store:

- ZeroHedge Waxed Canvas Hat

- ZeroHedge Shirt

- IQ Biologix Astaxanthin (extremely potent anti-inflammatory)

- ZeroHedge Multitool

- Anza SWAT Micarta Blued (made in the USA)

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/23/2025 - 07:11

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Overall mortgage application activity declined last week, as rates increased to their highest level in two months. The 30-year fixed rate rose for the second straight week to 6.9 percent, an almost 30-basis-point increase over two weeks,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “These higher rates drove a 20 percent drop in refinance applications, especially for higher balance loans, with the average loan size falling substantially. The refinance share of applications at 37.3 percent was the lowest since January. Similar to the previous week, economic uncertainty and rate volatility impacted prospective homebuyers as we saw a 7 percent decline in purchase applications. Both conventional and government purchase activity fell relative to the week before, but the overall level of purchase applications was still 6 percent higher than a year ago.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.90 percent from 6.81 percent, with points increasing to 0.66 from 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 6% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is up about 22% from the lows in late October 2023 and is 2% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index decreased.

Judge Slams Trump VOA Shutdown As 'Arbitrary,' Orders Reinstatement

A federal judge delivered a stinging rebuke to the Trump administration on Tuesday, halting its attempt to shutter Voice of America (VOA) and its sister networks, calling the move likely unlawful and "hard to fathom."

U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth, a Reagan appointee, indefinitely blocked efforts to wind down the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM) - VOA’s parent agency, and ordered the full restoration of its operations and workforce.

Lamberth didn’t mince words, writing in his ruling that the administration “silenced VOA, canceled funds to affiliate Networks, and shut down all transmitters at foreign service stations abroad,” with no discernible legal process.

"It is hard to fathom a more straightforward display of arbitrary and capricious actions than the Defendants’ actions here," Lamberth continued.

“In short, the defendants had no method or approach towards shutting down USAGM that this Court can discern,” the judge declared. “They took immediate and drastic action… without regard to the harm inflicted on employees, contractors, journalists, and media consumers around the world.”

The judge also ordered USAGM to return employees who were placed on leave and prohibited further staff reductions while the lawsuit proceeds. He further directed continued funding for the agency’s international broadcasting efforts, emphasizing that the silencing of USAGM undermines both journalistic integrity and U.S. strategic interests.

The court battle began after former President Donald Trump issued an executive order disbanding the agency. In a controversial appointment, Trump tapped Kari Lake, a former news anchor turned political firebrand and Arizona gubernatorial candidate, to lead the agency. Lake justified the shutdown by citing “waste, fraud and abuse,” echoing broader administration efforts to slash the federal workforce.

But critics saw the move as a thinly veiled assault on press freedom.

“They can use a scalpel or a sledgehammer; either way it’s viewpoint discrimination,” said attorney Andrew Celli, representing a coalition of VOA journalists, unions, and the free press watchdog Reporters Without Borders, who filed suit last month.

Celli argued the administration targeted the network’s coverage of issues ranging from Hamas to transgender rights, topics that reportedly drew the ire of Trump allies.

Lamberth’s ruling stopped short of reinstating all operations. While VOA and its major affiliates, Radio Free Asia and Middle Eastern Broadcast Network, were covered by the injunction, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and the Open Technology Fund were left out due to related ongoing litigation.

The decision delivers a major blow to the administration’s effort to rein in the global media outlet. Lamberth warned that financial harm posed by the shutdown wasn’t just a budgetary issue, it threatened the “very existence” of the network and the safety of its journalists.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/23/2025 - 06:55

Archeologist's Comment On Human Sacrifice Exposes Inanity Of 'Oppression Studies' Mindset

Authored by Dave Huber via The College Fix,

Making the rounds this past week were comments by a Mexican archeologist regarding the discovery of a Mayan altar at which child sacrifices were performed.

As reported by CBS News, the altar, found in Tikal National Park, showed “the remains of three children not older than 4 years,” according to the scholar who led the discovery team.

The savagery of how such sacrifices were performed, however, is not brought up. Instead, we merely read how Tikal was “a cosmopolitan center,” a “center of cultural convergence,” and how the altar had a “figure representing the Storm Goddess.”

CBS also managed to get a comment from an archeologist not affiliated with the findings at Tikal. How come? Probably because María Belén Méndez of the National Autonomous University of Mexico said the child sacrifices were merely “a practice.”

“It’s not that [its practitioners] were violent,” Belén Méndez said, just that sacrifices were “their way of connecting with the celestial bodies.”

As Reason Senior Editor (and former College Fix contributor) Robby Soave put it, “mostly peaceful child sacrifice”?

Now, imagine CBS News finding some deep-woods gentleman in, say, Middle-Of-Nowhere Arkansas. He’s holding several individuals captive on his property and forcing them to work for him and tend to his land:

Professor Antoinette Whitebread told CBS News it’s not that this man was practicing slavery. It was just his way of connecting with the Bible. After all, in Leviticus and Joshua we read “Moses tells the Israelites on the way to the Promised Land how they should acquire and keep slaves,” and that “some of you shall always be slaves.”

In the the New Testament, Ephesians notes that Paul said “Slaves, obey your earthly masters with fear and trembling.”

We have to imagine this as of course CBS would never run such a segment — because it’s ridiculous. The West long ago rejected such justifications (if they ever really existed in the first place), and there’s no way CBS or other news outlets would treat this hypothetical without referencing the inherent barbarity.

Oppression studies dictates that Western values, culture, and even science aren’t any better than others’, and since they’ve been the (positive) focus for so long, the focus must now shift elsewhere — but only with favorable narratives.

New Zealand, for example, tells us “indigenous ways of knowing” are on par with modern Western science methods. The University of Massachusetts Amherst got a $30 million federal grant in 2023 to “braid” indigenous knowledge into science. And a required nursing class at the University of Alberta teaches about “indigenous ways” of understanding “health … and being one with nature.”

In the meantime, high school and college students are taught that the West’s history of “settler-colonialism” is responsible for just about any conceivable ill. Courses and workshops on “whiteness,” “white supremacy,” “white fragility,” etc. cover all that and then some.

The irony of the CBS story is that 1) the Maya/Teotihuacan never encountered Europeans (their eventual successors, the Aztec, wouldn’t meet Cortez and Co. until 700 years later), and 2) the Maya actually were quite advanced mathematically and scientifically. 

Thus, even on an oppression studies basis, there’s no reason to sugarcoat their heinous practice of human sacrifice.

But whoever said oppression studies and its adherents make any sense?

*  *  *

Top products at ZeroHedge Store:

- ZeroHedge Waxed Canvas Hat

- ZeroHedge Shirt

- IQ Biologix Astaxanthin (extremely potent anti-inflammatory)

- ZeroHedge Multitool

- Anza SWAT Micarta Blued (made in the USA)

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/23/2025 - 06:30

Breaking Down Copper Trade In Charts Amid Noisy Trade War, IMF Downgrade

The ongoing trade war is poised to deliver a negative shock to US growth, prompting the International Monetary Fund to slash its 2025 forecast earlier Tuesday. This gloomier outlook has sharpened our focus on the once high-flying industrial metals market—now showing signs of weakness—particularly the copper market.

Goldman analyst Adam Gillard provided clients with a snapshot of current conditions in the copper market, highlighting tight physical supply in China and continued strength in domestic demand.

However, Gillard cautioned that ongoing global industrial production weakness and declining Chinese exports—driven by the deepening trade war—could tip the market into surplus.

The analyst outlined four micro data points on the copper markets for clients to better gauge sentiment:

1. US cathode imports: YTD imports from BL data 408k MT implying an "over-import" of ~100k MT vs market expectations of ~300k MT (by June). If this run rate continues LME should tighten despite the likely tariff related demand shock.

Source: Goldman Sachs Research

2. Scrap: US scrap spreads remain under pressure as rising discounts erode the CME premium (US scrap is priced off CMX). March exports unchanged sequentially despite ARB strength; we don't have April export data yet but this will be key given lower US exports (FY production ~542k MT contained) were key to the bull thesis.

3. Chinese demand: Ostensibly strong; YTD demand +10% due to production strength (from increased smelter capacity), seasonally adjusted stock draws (in part due to tariff related tolling exports) and strong net imports (despite deeply negative SHFE / LME import arb). Think this figure inflated by SMM production numbers (base affect) but a strong number nonetheless.

4. Positioning: Although our CTA model is running close to max short LME net spec at 28k is above the Aug24 low of 16k, and China appear to be still be running long on Shanghai (due to strong domestic demand).

Source: Goldman Sachs Research

The question remains whether copper bulls like Kostas Bintas, Trafigura Group's former co-head of metals and now with Mercuria Energy Group, and/or Carlyle Group's Jeff Currie (former Goldman boss of commodities) are still bullish on the industrial metal—or if the trade war has delayed their thesis of much higher prices. 

LME Copper...

. . . 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/23/2025 - 05:45

Iran Offers More Nuclear Transparency In Exchange For Lifting Sanctions

Iran says that ready to make its nuclear program more transparent at a moment it is preparing to send representatives for a third round of talks with the United States, set for April 26.

Iranian government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said Tuesday that Tehran in return for this greater transparency wants US-led sanctions lifted.

"We will try to create more transparency and more trust [in the nuclear program] in exchange for lifting sanctions. In other words, in exchange for lifting sanctions — I emphasize, in a way that is effective and has a [positive] effect on people's lives — Iran is ready to create more trust in its nuclear program and more transparency," Mohajerani told reporters.

Mohajerani made clear that Tehran is ready to reach "good agreement" with the United States on nuclear issue. "We are confident that reaching a good agreement in a short time while respecting our national interests is realistic," she said, calling the prior two rounds "good" amid a "constructive" atmosphere.

The day prior to these optimistic remarks, Iran’s Foreign Ministry warned that Israel was seeking to "undermine" the ongoing nuclear talks with Washington, amid reports in Israeli media that leaders are mulling a 'limited' attack on the Islamic Republic.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Monday that a "kind of coalition is forming… to undermine and disrupt the diplomatic process" and that the "Zionist regime is at the center of this effort."

Alluding to reports from last week of an internal US administration split on Iran, Baghaei further warned that hawks in the US are also involved in the effort to sabotage the talks. "Alongside it are a series of warmongering currents in the United States and figures from different factions," he said.

President Trump has reportedly told the Israelis that no, he will not support preemptive strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and that he prefers to negotiate a solution. Below is what the US side said after last weekend's second round of talks in Rome: 

"Today, in Rome, over four hours in our second round of talks, we made very good progress in our direct and indirect discussions," the official said Saturday. "We agreed to meet again next week and are grateful to our Omani partners for facilitating these talks and to our Italian partners for hosting us today."

Russia too, as an original signatory to the defunct 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, is getting more deeply involved - reportedly at the invitation of the Trump administration.

The leader of Oman, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said, visited Moscow on Tuesday where he met with President Vladimir Putin to discuss what's next.

"Oman has been mediating between Iran and the United States as President Donald Trump seeks an agreement that would curb Iran's nuclear program, which Washington believes is aimed at developing a nuclear weapon," writes Reuters.

Fiery exchange between Israeli spox and editor-and-chief of Russia's RT...

A fiery back-and-forth after we asked Israeli foreign ministry spokesperson if Israel will give up its nuclear weapons if Iran's nuclear program is dismantled.

"Israel is not a threat to anyone. We don't have any ambitions in any other country. Iran has ambition in the entire… pic.twitter.com/LlSH3Y3OYD

— Margarita Simonyan (@M_Simonyan) April 22, 2025

"We discussed the progress of negotiations between Iranian and American representatives," a Kremlin statement said. Moscow and Tehran have been increasingly close, given their recent cooperation on defense, and in places like Ukraine - where Russian forces are heavily reliant on Iran-produced suicide drones.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/23/2025 - 04:15

Estonia Might Become Europe's Next Trouble Spot

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The latest socio-political and security developments suggest that it relishes being a frontline state...

Estonia catapulted back into international news after it recently seized an alleged vessel from Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet”, to which Russia had a restrained reaction for the pragmatic reasons explained here, but it’s also been stirring up trouble with Russia in other ways too. The aforementioned provocation coincides with the passing of a law allowing Estonia to sink foreign vessels that it deems to pose a national security threat. It’s possible that this could be the next planned regional escalation.

On the security front, Estonia also reportedly wants to deploy some of its troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping mission jointly led by France and the UK. Moreover, there’s always the chance that the UK decides to transform its rotational ~1,000-troop military presence in Estonia into a permanent fixture. That would make it the third NATO member to do so in the region after the US (in Poland and Romania) and Germany (in Lithuania). This could be sold as a hedge against the US withdrawing some of its troops.

Estonia’s internal situation is also becoming increasingly tense as a result of three interconnected developments.

The first concerns the latest law denying local voting rights to foreigners, which includes some of those 22.5% of Russians living in the country who don’t meet the post-independence criteria for citizenship and are thus legally classified as “stateless persons”.

For background, Estonia considers them to be the descendants of “Soviet occupiers”, which is the basis upon which it’s restricted their rights.

Expanding upon the last point about historical perception, Estonia is also ramping up its long-running campaign of dismantling Soviet-era World War II monuments, which the state regards symbols of Soviet occupation. 

Russia, however, believes that this move amounts to historical revisionism. In connection with that, readers should be aware that Russia has consistently accused Estonia of glorifying Nazi collaborators, with the most blatant example thereof being the annual marches in honor of the SS.

As if these moves weren’t provocative enough, Estonia just passed a law requiring the Estonian Chrisitan Orthodox Church to sever its canonical ties with the Russian Orthodox Church. 

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharov reacted to this by denouncing “the systematic destruction of fundamental human rights and freedoms continues under the guise of far-fetched, so-called democratic slogans. Once again, a blow has been dealt to one of the most sensitive areas – religious rights and freedoms.”

Estonia is able to threaten Russia’s direct and indirect interests, correspondingly relating to its national security and the rights of its co-ethnics in that country, with impunity due to its NATO membership. The only realistic scenarios in which Russia might countenance using military force are if Estonia participates in blockading the Gulf of Finland, uses force against Russian vessels (whether a warship or Russian-flagged civilian ship), or attacks across the “Baltic Defence Line” that it’s building along their border.

So long as Estonia keeps its provocations below these thresholds, then the risk of a major war breaking out should remain low, but bilateral tensions will worsen as will those between Russia and the European members of NATO. That could turn Estonia into Europe’s next trouble spot, thus accelerating the militarization of the Baltic Sea and the nearby Arctic region, likely including the Russian-Finnish border. Russian-EU tensions would then persist indefinitely even if Russian-US relations improve in the future.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/23/2025 - 03:30

Zelensky Wants To Meet Trump In Rome At Pope's Funeral

The last time Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky was in the same room with US President Donald Trump, it didn't go so well. That was scene of the February 28 fireworks in Oval Office (see below), also involving Vice President JD Vance. Since then, US-Ukraine relations have been very strained, and Trump had even briefly halted the flow of weapons to Ukrainian forces.

Zelensky would like to try again, at a moment he's not happy the US and Russia are engaged in ongoing bilateral talks with the purpose of diplomatic normalization and achieving resolution to the Ukraine war. Zelensky on Tuesday made clear that he would like to meet Trump in the Vatican on Saturday where global leaders will attend the funeral of Pope Francis, who died in the early hours of Monday.

St. Peter's Square, file image

"Yes, I would like to, I am ready. We are always ready to meet with our partners from the United States," Zelensky said in answering a journalist's question on whether he hopes to meet Trump and the funeral ceremonies.

And a Vatican statement has indicated the two leaders are likely to sit near each other, up at the front of the proceedings.

"We expect the world leaders coming for the papal funeral, including U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, will be seated in the front row or towards the front of the funeral in St. Peter's Square on Saturday morning. We might see some images of the world leaders greeting each other. The ceremony will be solemn," it stated.

Trump just before this last weekend warned he's ready to walk away from efforts to forge a peace deal if progress is not quickly made, and that's when Putin unveiled his 30-hour Easter truce.

This week much discussion has reportedly focused on Crimea, with the US being open to giving formal recognition of Russia's hold over the peninsula. But this has been another source of tension, as Zelensky has already rejected this.

If Trump and Zelensky do meet, it could be just brief and informal, or else they could set up a meeting on the sidelines while in Rome. According to more details of funeral preparations:

Francis's coffin -- which he previously ordered should be of wood and zinc -- will then be taken inside the church and from there to Rome's papal basilica of Santa Maria Maggiore for burial. 

The funeral date was set by cardinals meeting in a so-called "general congregation", the first of a series of meetings which will culminate in a conclave within three weeks, where a new pope will be elected.

Francis died in the Casa Santa Marta, the Vatican residence where he lived during his 12-year papacy, and his body was laid out in its chapel on Monday evening.

The Pope during his pontificate frequently called for peace in Ukraine, but he also at times lashed out at the West and the arms industry for fueling the bloodshed.

Not very long ago, in late February, this scene played out at the White House...

Wow.

Vance and Trump went in on Zelensky and it was deserved. pic.twitter.com/dnAsRDIqWf

— Wendy O (@CryptoWendyO) February 28, 2025

At the moment, at least 99.5% of Kursk territory is back in Russia's control. Russia's military also still continues to advance in remaining parts of Donetsk still held by Ukraine, but slowly and village by village.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/23/2025 - 02:45

Austria Sees Sharp Drop In Asylum Applications, March Hits Lowest Level Since 2020

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The number of asylum applications in Austria dropped sharply in the first quarter of 2025, marking a significant decline of 33 percent compared to the same period last year.

From January through March, a total of 4,644 applications were submitted. With 1,329 applications, March saw the fewest monthly asylum requests since July 2020.

As reported by Heute, only around one in three asylum requests are new, with the remainder typically involving requests for an upgrade in status, such as moving from subsidiary protection to full asylum, as well as applications for children born in Austria or those related to family reunification.

This pattern is particularly evident among Afghan nationals. Of the 504 Afghan applications submitted in the first quarter, just 93 were first-time filings. One contributing factor is the continuing effect of a European Court of Justice decision, which states that Afghan women do not require individual hearings in certain cases. As a result, individuals previously granted subsidiary protection are increasingly applying for full asylum status.

Syrians show a similar trend, with 268 follow-up applications compared to only 58 new ones. The Austrian government continues to accept asylum applications from Syrians, but generally does not process them while the political future of Syria remains uncertain following the Islamist coup in Damascus and the fall of the deposed former president Bashar al-Assad.

As of now, there are 12,918 pending asylum cases involving Syrians, followed by 4,112 involving Afghans. In total, Austria is handling just under 15,300 asylum cases a year. During the first quarter, asylum status was granted in 2,120 cases, while subsidiary protection was approved 451 times and humanitarian residence in 299 cases.

Afghans were the most likely group to receive asylum or residence, with almost 1,500 individuals granted asylum titles alone. In contrast, only 77 Syrians were granted asylum during the same period.

The new coalition government in Vienna is expected to introduce new legislation to suspend family reunification for at least a year, which is expected to further halt the flow of asylum applications in the country.

Austria's new government announced it will “temporarily” suspend family reunification for migrants.

The right-wing FPÖ says it's all smoke and mirrors.

"The quota is supposed to be zero for only half a year, then more people will be reunited." said FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl. pic.twitter.com/7n807KB4vm

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) March 13, 2025

A poll published last month found that more than 80 percent of respondents in Austria back tighter asylum regulations.

A general decline in asylum applications was also observed across the wider European Union, with 210,641 applications filed by the end of March, representing a 19 percent drop. However, some countries, including Poland, Croatia, Luxembourg, and Belgium, have seen increases in applications.

When population is taken into account, Austria now ranks tenth among European countries in terms of asylum application rates.

Despite the drop in new applications, Austria’s basic support infrastructure remains under pressure. As of early April, more than 65,000 individuals were receiving basic care services, although this number has decreased by nearly 3,000 since the beginning of the year.

These services were particularly affected by the influx of Ukrainian refugees over the past few years, with 55 percent of those receiving support coming from the war-torn country.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/23/2025 - 02:00

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 680 thousand SAAR, up from 676 thousand in February.

• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for March (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

Andrew Cuomo Referred To DOJ For Criminal Prosecution

Authored by Ken Silva via Headline USA,

Last October, the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic has sent a criminal referral to the Justice Department, recommending former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo be charged with making false statements to Congress.

Unsurprisingly, the DOJ ignored the referral. Some six months later, House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., has asked Trump’s Justice Department to take a look at the matter again.

“To our knowledge, the Biden Administration ignored this referral despite clear facts and evidence. Accordingly, we request you review this referral and take appropriate action,” Comer said Monday in a letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi.

Andrew Cuomo LIED to Congress about his deadly nursing home scandal.

That’s why Chairman Comer (@RepJamesComer) is re-upping his referral to the DOJ (@TheJusticeDept / @AGPamBondi) for criminal charges.

Seniors in New York DIED under Cuomo’s must-admit nursing home order. pic.twitter.com/FIZxp0ujgk

— Oversight Committee (@GOPoversight) April 21, 2025

According to last year’s coronavirus subcommittee report, Cuomo had reviewed, edited, and even drafted portions of a purportedly independent and peer-reviewed New York State Department of Health report, which was used to support his deadly pandemic-era nursing home policies.

However, Cuomo told the subcommittee in his June transcribed interview that he had nothing to do with that report. Cuomo’s lie is why the House GOP wants him criminally charged.

“Andrew Cuomo is a man with a history of corruption and deceit, now caught red-handed lying to Congress during the Select Subcommittee’s investigation into the COVID-19 nursing home tragedy in New York,” Comer said Monday.

“This wasn’t a slip-up—it was a calculated cover-up by a man seeking to shield himself from responsibility for the devastating loss of life in New York’s nursing homes.”

The Cuomo administration came under significant scrutiny for a policy that at first required nursing homes to readmit recovering COVID-19 patients in an effort to avoid hospitals from becoming overwhelmed. That was on top of state fatality figures that significantly undercounted the deaths.

In June, an investigation into New York’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic found former Gov. Cuomo’s “top down” approach of dictating public health policy through his office—rather than coordinating with state and local agencies—sewed confusion during the crisis.

In the state’s nursing homes, where some 15,000 people died, the administration’s lack of communication with agencies and facilities resulted in wasted resources and mistrust — not to mention anxiety for residents’ loved ones, according to the independent probe commissioned by current Gov. Kathy Hochul in 2022.

Cuomo resigned from office in August 2021, amid sexual harassment allegations, which he denies. Hochul, a fellow Democrat who had been Cuomo’s lieutenant, inherited the job and was reelected the follow year.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/22/2025 - 17:40

Democrat County Attorney Lets Anti-Tesla Terrorist Off the Hook

Authored by Matt Margolis via PJ Media,

So an unhinged leftist goes through downtown Minneapolis, casually walking his dog and keying Teslas as if it’s a hobby. Not just one or two vehicles, but six Teslas, to be exact, with damage totaling more than $20,000. Caught red-handed on video, arrested by police, and unequivocally identified as 33-year-old Dylan Adams, a state employee no less. 

AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin

Seems like a slam-dunk criminal case, right? Wrong. Instead of holding him accountable, Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty decided to give him a pass.

Yes, you read that right. The man caused tens of thousands of dollars in damage, but rather than face criminal charges, Adams gets the warm embrace of “diversion.” According to Moriarty’s office, its priority is ensuring that he “keeps his job” and has the opportunity to pay restitution. Really? Is this what justice looks like now under liberal leadership—a coddling of the perpetrator while his victims are left wondering if their property even matters? This isn’t prosecutorial discretion; it’s left-wing activism.

Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty

As a Democrat affiliated with Minnesota’s DFL Party, Moriarity has consistently championed leftist criminal justice reforms, including claims of racial disparities in marijuana stings and traffic stops, advocating for reduced incarceration, and emphasizing rehabilitation for juvenile offenders. Her tenure as Hennepin County Public Defender has been marked by clashes with establishment figures over her vocal stance on systemic racism. She also publicly identified as queer during her campaign, aligning herself with broader social justice movements.

This is a case study in everything wrong with progressive governance. Minneapolis police did their job. They identified a suspect, arrested him, and presented the case to the Hennepin County Attorney’s Office. But instead of enforcing the law, Moriarty turned it into a joke. The perpetrator is a state employee, a data analyst for the Department of Human Services. If that sounds familiar, it’s because bureaucrats like him are protected at all costs under leftist policies, and that protection comes at our expense. 

Who benefits from this? It’s certainly not the victims, who now have to fight tooth and nail for restitution they may never see. And it’s certainly not law-abiding citizens who are left wondering if criminals face any real consequences anymore. This isn’t just a failure at the local level; it’s emblematic of a broader liberal obsession with excusing bad behavior. In their worldview, the criminal is somehow the real victim, and property crimes are treated as minor inconveniences instead of serious offenses.  

But this wasn’t a random outburst of poor judgment. Adams systematically keyed cars targeting automotive “villains” like Tesla because Elon Musk has the audacity to want to root out wasteful spending from the government. 

NEW: Minneapolis Police Department rips far-left DA Mary Moriarty for declining to charge a Minnesota government employee who caused $20,000 in damages to Teslas.

No wonder why Minneapolis is turning into a sh*t hole.

Police provided evidence of 33-year-old Dylan Bryan Adams… pic.twitter.com/g7h7lnjnks

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) April 22, 2025

Even more infuriating, Moriarty’s office tried to spin this decision as a win for fairness and justice. “Our main priorities are to secure restitution for the victims and hold Mr. Adams accountable,” a spokesperson claimed. 

Really? Because it seems like the only person with guaranteed benefits here is the guy who broke the law. The attorney’s office also claimed this diversion program would reduce the likelihood of repeat offenses. How? By letting him off with a slap on the wrist? Forgive us if we're skeptical of that logic.

This entire fiasco exposes the moral bankruptcy at the core of leftist ideology. These are the same people who excused the chaos and destruction of the BLM riots, who now clamor for the return of a deported MS-13 gang member, and who remain conveniently silent as Teslas are vandalized simply because the company’s CEO is aligned with Donald Trump. Time and again, Democrats show us exactly who they are: the party that coddles criminals and vilifies law-abiding Americans. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/22/2025 - 16:55

Tesla Misses Across The Board; Slams "Uncertainty" In Automotive Market, But Affirms Affordable Model "Remains On Track" For H1 2025

With everyone's attention turning to Mag7 heavyweight Tesla after hours (full preview here), focus will be on whether outlook is reduced after weaker Q1 sales; other key focus points will be i) robotaxi launch, ii) FSD adoptions in China and Europe and iii) updates on lower priced vehicles/new launches. TSLA stock is down -53% from it’s December highs (-40% YTD) and given all the negative press of late (including ‘code red’ headlines yesterday) leave Goldman thinking that positioning and expectations are very low at this point.

To that point, Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Securities, thinks Tesla’s investment case has little to do with how the company performs this year. Rather, investors are looking to 2026 and beyond and Tesla’s autonomy opportunity. “I expect $TSLA to be ugly tonight (11-12% auto gross margins ex credits, down from 13.6% in December) — and it probably doesn’t matter,” Munster said in a post on X ahead of the results.

Also as widely documented recently, amid backlash against Musk, some Tesla owners are opting to trade their vehicles in. While used vehicles are increasing in price by about 1% on average, Tesla models are seeing price drops of about 10%, according to iSeeCars.com, which may be a discussion point on the earnings call.

So with that in mind, Tesla shares close the day up 4.6%, with straddles pricing in a +/-10% move after earnings. Here is what the company just reported for Q1 moments ago. As Munster predicted, it was ugly.

• Revenues $19.34BN, big miss to estimates of $21.37BN
• EPS 27c, missing estimates of 43c
• Gross margin 16.3% (down from 17.4% y/y), and beating estimates of 16.1%
• Automotive gross margin ex reg credits 12.5%, beating estimates of 11.9%
• Operating income $399 million, -66% y/y, missing estimates of $1.13 billion
• Free cash flow $664 million (vs. negative $2.53 billion y/y) missing  estimate $1.08 billion
• Capital expenditure $1.49 billion (down -46% vs $2.77Bn y/y and down 47% vs $2.78BN Q/Q), missing estimates of $2.49 billion

And visually:

Of note, Tesla eked out positive free cash flow number by slashing capex almost in half compared with the prior quarter and a year ago. Absent that, it would have burned cash. Below we summarize commentary and context from the investor letter (more details below)

• Will Revisit Our 2025 Guidance in Our Q2 Update
• Leaves Out Return to Growth Forecast From Earnings Report
• Rate of Growth Will Depend on A Variety of Factors
• Tariff Landscape to Have A Larger Impact on Energy Unit
• Says Difficult to Measure Impacts of Global Trade Policy
• Actions to Stabilize in Medium to Long-Term
• Sufficient Liquidity to Fund Our Product Roadmap
• Plans for New Vehicles on Track for Start Prod in 1H '25
• Uncertainty Could Impact Demand in Near Term
• Sees More Affordable Models Lead to Less Cost Reduction
• Despite Tariffs, Sees Increasing Need for Energy Storage
• Tariffs to Impact Energy More Than Automotive

The company's Q1 investor letter was far more downbeat than investors had come to expect. Here is what Musk had to say about the company's highlights:

Uncertainty in the automotive and energy markets continues to increase as rapidly evolving trade policy adversely impacts the global supply chain and cost structure of Tesla and our peers. This dynamic, along with changing political sentiment, could have a meaningful impact on demand for our products in the near-term. We remain committed to expanding our business model to include delivering autonomous robots across multiple form factors and use cases – powered by our real-world AI expertise – to our customers and for use in our factories, as we navigate these headwinds.

The warnings continued, with an emphasis on the company's energy business:

AI is a major pillar of growth for Tesla and the broader economy and key to our pursuit of sustainable abundance. Furthermore, AI infrastructure is driving rapid load growth, which, along with traditional utility customer applications, is creating an outsized opportunity for our Energy storage products to stabilize the grid, shift energy when it is needed most and provide additional power capacity. While the current tariff landscape will have a relatively larger impact on our Energy business compared to automotive, we are taking actions to stabilize the business in the medium to long-term and focus on maintaining its health.

As Bloomberg expands on the bolded text, that must be because Tesla’s Megapack product, the massive batteries that store energy, uses LFP cells, which are largely imported from China. It’s also helpful to remember that North America only made up 5% of global lithium-ion battery production capacity in 2024, according to Wood Mackenzie. China, meanwhile, made up 84%. While the US is ramping up its domestic battery manufacturing capacity, that will take time. 

More to this point, Tesla acknowledged it still has a little ways to go for onshoring its own lithium supply: “Our lithium refining and cathode production plants are on track to start production in 2025, onshoring production of critical battery materials to the US.”

But most troubling was the following segment, announcing that the company will only discuss 2025 guidance in the Q2 update next quarter:

It is difficult to measure the impacts of shifting global trade policy on the automotive and energy supply chains, our cost structure and demand for durable goods and related services. While we are making prudent investments that will set up both our vehicle and energy businesses for growth, the rate of growth this year will depend on a variety of factors, including the rate of acceleration of our autonomy efforts, production ramp at our factories and the broader macroeconomic environment. We will revisit our 2025 guidance in our Q2 update.

And then there was this ominous headline from Bloomberg:

• *TESLA LEAVES OUT RETURN TO GROWTH FORECAST FROM EARNINGS REPORT

Investors will certainly be interested in seeing what Elon has to say about his close relationship with Donald Trump; here Bloomberg notes that the deck doesn’t mention Musk. But it does acknowledge “changing political sentiment” which “could have a meaningful impact on demand for our products in the near-term." It will be interesting if that’s the case in more than one region. There were many concerned that the Chinese consumer would champion domestic names due to Musk’s association with the Trump administration and its tariff policy.

While this barrage of warnings and negative news would have been enough to send the stock plunging after hours, the following section from the earnings report is what some are clinging to to explain why the stock is modestly higher after hours:

Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025. These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle lineup.

Tesla elaborates that "this approach will result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected but enables us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times. This should help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 60% growth over 2024 production before investing in new manufacturing lines."

As for the company's Robotaxi product, the  Cybercab, Tesla said it is scheduled for volume production starting in 2026.

One wonders how long the initial upside momentum in the stock price will persist once investors dig into this latest attempt to manage expectations.

For now, it is working and after swinging after hours, TSLA stock has tabilize modestly in the green, trading just around $238. Dave Mazza, CEO at Roundhill Financial, had this to say post results: “A lot of negative seems to be priced in if the Tesla numbers were that bad and the stock isn’t tanking.”

Full investor presentation below (full pdf here):

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/22/2025 - 16:33

Defy, Deny, Defund, Deport, Destroy

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

I must have dreamed a thousand dreams
Been haunted by a million screams
But I can hear the marching feet
They’re moving into the street

Now, did you read the news today?
They say the danger has gone away
But I can see the fire’s still alight
They’re burning into the night

There’s too many men, too many people
Making too many problems
And there’s not much love to go around
Can’t you see this is the land of confusion?

Genesis – Land of Confusion

I think “Land of Confusion” is an accurate description of the world in 2025, even if the song was written in 1986 during the Reagan presidency. The three-month-old Trump presidency has been a whirlwind of executive orders, high profile deportations, mass firings of stay-at-home government drones who pretend to work, daily revelations from DOGE about massive waste, fraud, and corruption within the Federal government, defunding the democrat slush fund – USAID, release of JFK files showing the CIA was involved, defunding the Ukraine debacle, negotiating with Putin to end the war while the EU attempts to undermine those negotiations to start WW3, and now waging a global tariff war against China and every country who have taken advantage of our penchant for consuming while going into massive debt to do so.

The Wall Street cabal and foreign owners of our trillions in Treasury debt have attempted to derail Trump’s tariff war by throwing a hissy fit like they did after their $700 billion TARP bailout was initially voted down in 2008. They drove the stock market down 17% and drove the 10-Year Treasury up 50 basis points in a matter of days, before Trump yelled uncle, delayed most tariffs for 90 days and has been busy granting exceptions to favored industries who have his ear.

Despite running on a platform of ending the Ukraine war and the Israel Gaza conflict within weeks of taking office, the Ukraine war is not close to being resolved, and Trump has done nothing but pour gasoline on the Middle East fire. He has increased military aid to Israel so they can continue to bomb the rubble that is Gaza. He is spending billions bombing the Houthis, while risking our carrier groups, when we have no real strategic interest in doing so, other than doing Netanyahu’s bidding.

One day he threatens Iran with obliteration, and the next day he sends a negotiator to talk things over. Threaten and back-off seems to be Trump’s standard operating procedure. Xi knows this is Trump’s method of winning negotiations, so his response has been to match Trump’s threats with his own threats. Waiting for someone to blink.

Trump continues to de-fund and penalize the largest universities in the U.S. because a few thousand of their students protested on their campuses about Israel’s genocide of Palestinians in Gaza. In my book, free speech means free speech, whether I like it or not. The antisemitism narrative being pushed by the Trump administration and their MSM cheerleaders at Fox seems excessive and overblown. Miriam Adleson’s $100 million campaign contribution seems to be paying off.

When you impartially step back and observe how Trump treats Netanyahu and how the vast majority in congress do whatever Israel instructs them to do, it’s undeniable our government is broadly controlled by another country that does not have our best interests at heart. AIPAC uses bribes and threats to keep our politicians in line. This fact is clearly revealed by how they treat Thomas Massie, the most principled freedom-loving person in congress. He has been declared Israel Enemy #1 by AIPAC and their Israel handlers for not kissing their ring.

Confusion reigns because the world is lost in a blizzard of lies and paralyzed in a boundless morass of uncertainty. The ability of corporations, small business owners, and average Americans to make decisions, based upon a reasonable understanding of the rules of the game and what the near-term future holds, has been obliterated because the rules change on a daily basis. I know Trump’s tariff bonanza is designed as a negotiating tactic to force foreign countries to lower their trade barriers and give American exporters a level playing field. As a negotiating tactic, it is a bold roll of the dice. If it works, as the biggest importer in the world, Americans will benefit from lower prices. China is the wildcard.

If Trump cannot negotiate a reasonable agreement with China and tariff increases remain in effect, an inflationary global recession will ensue. The debt saturated American economy cannot endure higher interest rates, higher inflation, higher deficits, rising unemployment, and interest on the national debt soaring above $1 trillion. It most certainly cannot fight simultaneous wars in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and the Far East.

We know when politicians, and even dictators, feel intolerable pressure because their economies are imploding and the natives are growing restless, angrier, and hungrier, they always follow the same playbook – distract the masses by giving them an foreign enemy, other than themselves. If these tariff wars do not de-intensify, global wars will begin and intensify until clear winners and losers are determined. That’s how it rolls in a Fourth Turning.

At the three month point of his presidency, Trump has purposefully created chaos as a tool to try and reverse decades of corruption, treason, and destruction. He has signed 130 executive orders, as the legislative branch of government has become inconsequential and toothless. Presidents now attempt to rule by dictate, bypassing Congress, unless forced to seek their permission. The left calls Trump a dictator, but they didn’t call Biden a dictator when he signed 160 executive orders, or Obama with 277 executive orders, or Clinton with 364 executive orders.

It’s the way the game is played, so every time the other party takes over, they reverse the executive orders of the previous administration. That is no way to run a country, but it is a way to run a banana republic circling the drain. While the bozos in congress are enriched for doing whatever they are instructed to do by whichever billionaires installed them, the judicial branch has now seized the most power of the three branches, under the guise of a legal system which no longer has a basis in the U.S. Constitution or Bill of Rights.

Treasonous judges (Boasberg) have been positioned by the Deep State and their billionaire puppet masters (Soros, Gates) to wage a lawfare war against anyone who defies the lucrative and corrupt status quo or attempts to reverse illegal actions taken by previous politician puppets (Biden, Obama) using executive orders and disregarding the Constitution. An entire establishment of corrupt district attorneys, judges, law firms, and fake NGOs are tasked with stopping everything Trump and his cabinet attempt to do which would benefit the average American, make the country safer, root out corruption, and enhance the financial condition of a country drowning in debt.

Judges blocking deportation of illegals, the firing of useless government drones, the defunding of left wing organizations within the government (USAID, NPR, PBS) pretending to be impartial, cutting off federal funds for the largest far left universities where 95% of the faculty vote Democrat, and essentially anything Trump was elected to do by the majority of Americans, must be defied and destroyed if necessary. Arrest the judges and let them rot in the putrid dungeon cells in D.C. without due process, like they inflicted upon grandmothers and other innocent J6 protestors.

“The more corrupt the state, the more numerous the laws.” ― Tacitus, The Annals of Imperial Rome

The American empire now exceeds the Roman empire when it comes to state corruption. And we all know how that ended. We started as a republic, decayed into a democracy, and we now live in a dystopian, delusional, debt fueled totalitarian oligarchy, being ushered into a techno-gulag while staring at our gadgets, addicted to toxic foodstuff, and oblivious to the propaganda and indoctrination being employed to control us. Pretending we can vote our way out of this is a fool’s game. They control all the levers (financial, political, legal, social, military, media). They have the money. They have the power. They have control.

They will not relinquish their wealth, power and control willingly, or non-violently. That’s a fact. I know there are varied opinions on whether Trump is actually playing a part in herding his followers into the techno-gulag, or whether he truly believes he can usher in a new golden age by defeating the deeply rooted Deep State quislings. I’m living through it, but I am treating it like I’m watching a TV drama, waiting to see how the next episode plays out.

Anyone with an ounce of critical thinking skills can discern all is not right in this world. The anger, vitriol, hate and violence being exhibited by the globalist loving left, fueled by Soros/Gates funding, is a precursor of the vicious conflicts which will mark the last five or so years of this Fourth Turning. To me, this Fourth Turning has delved into a battle between the globalist, totalitarian minded, new world order faction and a rag tag assemblage of libertarian minded, freedom loving, rational, decent, family oriented, frustrated, and heavily armed anarchists, who are being pushed towards their boiling point.

The pressure builds. The anger is welling up from the depths. Normal people, who just want to be left alone to live their lives, have been taxed into poverty at the point of a gun, raped by the relentless inflation purposely created by the oligarch banking cabal, forced to accept deviancy in public schools as normal, coerced into having a toxic gene therapy injected into their bodies in order to keep their jobs, and convinced by the media and their billionaire oligarch owners to become debt slaves in order to live the American dream.

The question is what action, event, or person will trigger the violent response, destined to occur in the foreseeable future. Two-hundred-and-fifty years ago this past week the British attempting to confiscate weapons from farmer patriots resulted in the battles of Lexington & Concord, triggering the American Revolution. One hundred and sixty-four years ago this past week Fort Sumter was attacked, triggering the Civil War. Eighty-six years ago, Hitler was preparing to invade Poland, triggering WW2.

The number of potential triggers domestically and internationally are vast. Internationally, Israel attacking Iran, the globalist tyrants in France, UK, and Germany provoking an expansion of the Ukraine war into WW3, or China responding to Trump’s tariff war by invading Taiwan, are all potential triggers for bloody conflict.

Domestically, there are also a myriad of potential triggers which could unleash a torrent of blood across the land. I know most normies and those ignorant of history believe that level of violence is impossible in this “age of reason and civility”. Assassination, firebombing, and swatting are now perfectly acceptable forms of “protest’ by the demented fiends constituting the left. If Trump was to be assassinated, that would most certainly trigger a violent response by his MAGA army of heavily armed adherents.

Trump’s frustration with the never ending lawfare tactics being used by his enemies and their captured politicized judges, is bound to boil over and lead him in the direction of martial law and the arrest of these judges and their puppet masters.

With the Supreme Court occupied by three moronic women with IQs below room temperature, and two supposed right leaning judges who clearly have been compromised by the Surveillance State, the courts can no longer be expected to make rulings in accordance with the Constitution. Therefore, a real Constitutional crisis is a certainty. When the rule of law has been annihilated and exiled to the annals of history, good men are forced to do bad things in order for future generations to stand a chance.

When the USD loses 11% of its value versus the DXY, and 39% versus gold over the course of 3 months, and the stock market plunges by 1,000 points on a regular basis, down 17% from its recent high, something is amiss. When gold goes up by 30% in four and a half months ($760 an ounce), it is a huge warning sign the system is coming unglued. Panic is setting in. The foreign countries Trump has been threatening are selling the USD.

Attempting to bully the world when you are the biggest debtor nation in history may not be a well thought out strategy. We are truly in a land of confusion. Is the Wall Street cabal tanking the markets to force Trump to back off on the tariffs? As average working stiffs see their 401ks vaporize for the third time this century, deal with the relentless inflation on the things they need to live (homes, rent, food, insurance, property taxes, medical), and observe no one being arrested for corruption, treason or being on Epstein’s list, their frustration, anger and impatience grows to the point where they are likely to blow.

I picture the opening scene of Falling Down, with Bill Foster, the average working schmuck, sweating, frustrated, and swinging wildly trying to kill a fly while trapped in a traffic jam. He snaps. Everyone has a breaking point. And I believe millions of normal peace-loving people will SOON reach their breaking point, pushed too far by their government, the media, bankers, and the billionaire globalist oligarchs pulling the strings. It will be up to people like you and me to make things right again. There will be no Superman or White Knight coming to save the day. We will see if we are up to the challenge.

Oh, Superman, where are you now?
When every thing’s gone wrong somehow?
Men of steel, these men of power
I’m losing control by the hour

I won’t be coming home tonight
My generation will put it right
We’re not just making promises
That we know we’ll never keep

Genesis – Land of Confusion

There are no guarantees this Fourth Turning has a happily ever after ending. Empires always fall.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/22/2025 - 16:20

The 8 Narrative Fallacies That Drive American Politics

Authored by Allan Feifer via AmericanThinker.com,

We live in a world rife with narrative fallacies intended to herd Americans and other Westerners towards Marxism. 

Here’s a list of just a few of the fallacious narratives that drive politics to the left:

Poverty. 

The claim is that poverty has never been worse. The truth is that poverty is at its lowest level of all time. Global poverty has seen significant declines over the past two centuries, particularly in terms of extreme poverty. Most of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty two hundred years ago, but today, that figure has dropped to about one in ten people. This progress is largely attributed to economic growth and development in many regions, particularly due to American dynamism.

The Courts’ Role In Controlling Policy. 

Weaponized use of the legal system is now de rigueur today for Democrats. Republicans are all criminals, we’re told. In this way, what Democrats can’t win at the ballot box may now be effectively undone by the courts.

In a delicious irony, Letitia James (“No one is above the law”), the New York Attorney General, is facing allegations of mortgage fraud for falsifying records to secure home loans for a property in Virginia, which she claimed as her principal residence while still serving in New York. This juxtaposes against claims she made that Trump had overinflated the values of many of his properties in a first-of-its-kind civil fraud trial that ended with a $454 million judgment now on appeal.

Climate Change. 

Is it about science or control? One has only to look at Europe today, where believers in climate change are reducing farming, restricting choice in how people travel, and trying to electrify everything with scarce “Green” energy that does not contribute to base load capacity, all while trying to get rid of your pets in the name of saving the planet.

American Colonialism. 

Is America a slave nation and colonizer, or quite the opposite? Little is ever said about the massive internal struggle we had in righting the wrong of slavery, ending with what remains America’s costliest war, with perhaps 750,000 dead, 2% of our entire population at the time. That would be the equivalent of 7 million dead today. Don’t you think we’ve already paid a high enough price for our mistakes?

Income Inequality. 

America has the highest number of billionaires in the world; is that a good or bad thing? If you care about your own personal economy, it is best not to look at too many billionaires as a bad thing. Progressives don’t want you to know it, but the top 10% of taxpayers pay 76% of all income taxes, and the bottom half, less than 2%.

Universal (aka Socialized) Healthcare. 

Will people live longer, better lives with universal healthcare, or maybe not? America already has universal healthcare. It’s called Medicaid, and it has 79 million beneficiaries. However, on average, people of means live 14 years longer than Medicaid recipients. Could factors like lifestyle choices, environmental conditions, and prioritizing healthy living be more critical than government spending? The facts tell a revealing story of misplaced priorities.

Education. 

Is there a correlation between spending money on education and creating thinking and functioning citizens? The US ranks in the bottom half on educational attainment among the most developed nations while spending the most per pupil. Frighteningly, the trend line is flat to declining, the opposite of improving. Johnny can’t read, write, or do math anymore in a world dominated by those who can!

America as a Citizen of the World. 

Does the world need America to lead or step back and let the world run itself? This is the key question we may be most divided on today.

Globalism has been a cancer that benefits government and big business. However, isolationism is effectively the opposite of globalism, and it would see America isolated and cut off from markets. Receding from leadership would automatically cede control to the strongest nation willing to step up and replace us. Unquestionably, that nation would be China. This would be the perfect setup for our economic destruction or, more likely, confrontation leading to WWIII. Rational minds must find the right balance between globalism and isolation.

Most popular progressive narratives ultimately attack the central premise that is a prerequisite for prosperity: economic growth and development by profit-seeking capitalists. Progressives largely eschew our history of success in favor of an ever-larger government that effectively decides what kind of growth and development there is to be through laws, regulations, financial incentives, and/or coercion, i.e., a Command Economy.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/22/2025 - 15:40

Stocks Reverse Bessent Gains On Report "It May Take Months To Hammer Out Final Trade Deals"

Update (1315ET): Shortly after the Bessent headlines moved stocks higher, Politco reports, while The White House is closing in on general agreements with Japan and India to stave off massive U.S. tariffs, it “may take months to hammer out the final deals,” said one of the people, conceding, “these things are complicated.”

Worse still, the optimism on the initial Bessent headlines has been erased as his actual comments were far less hopeful:

• BESSENT: REBALANCING OF CHINA ECONOMY TOWARDS CONSUMPTION AND U.S. ECONOMY TOWARDS MANUFACTURING IN TWO TO THREE YEARS WOULD BE A 'HUGE WIN' - RTRS

• BESSENT SAYS CHINA NEGOTIATIONS WILL BE A 'SLOG', DESCRIBES CURRENT BILATERAL TRADE SITUATION AS AN EMBARGO -PERSON WHO HEARD JP MORGAN SESSION

And just like that all the gains are gone...

*  *  *

US equity markets were already ramping higher, as yesterday's massive short pile up reversed and transformed into a squeeze (and force out of underexposed systematic funds), when an 11:58am ET headlines from Bloomberg, suggesting...  well... the obvious, namely that the trade war with China is unsustainable in the long run according to Bessent...

• *BESSENT SEES DE-ESCALATION WITH CHINA, SITUATION UNSUSTAINABLE

... sent the US equities to session highs, up 3%...

...and reversing all of yesterday losses...

Started with a major short-squeeze...

The broad risk on move has sent the dollar higher, hitting the yen and euro, and pushing the USDJPY well above 141 (after sliding below 140 overnight) and the EURUSD has pushed to session lows, down 0.5%, while the US 10y yield is near its richest levels of the day, down 3bp. Gold is also sliding and was below $3400 after hitting a record high $3500 just a few hours earlier.

While gold is sliding, bitcoin topped $91,000...

Today's rally is already shaping up as the biggest since Trump’s tariff pivot on April 9. According to UBS S&T, money is flowing back into High Momentum {UBQQHMTM}, up 3.5%, with groups like M&A Banks {UBXXMABK}, up 2.8%, and AI Power {UBXXVOLT}, up 3.4%, benefitting. Some more notable flows:

• A risk-on rotation is visible in Volatility {UBPTVOL}, up +2.5%, versus Quality {UBPTQLTY}, down 1.4%. Lower quality pockets are bouncing back most forcefully with De-SPACs {UBXXDSPC} up 3.5%, and Low Quality Credit {UBXXCRED} up 3%.

• Tariff Losers {UBXXTTL}, up 2.8% stabilise, note the basket outperformed meaningfully during Monday's selloff in a sign of washed out positioning.

• Defence Primes {UBXXPRME} are down 3%, though note about two-thirds of the move is driven by Northrop after disappointing earnings.

Another reason for today's meltup is the reversal of yesterday's meltdown, as panicked systematic funds scramble to buy. According to Goldman's Cullen Morgan, the systematic macro rebalance has effectively been completed, with global equity length going from approximately an 8 out of 10 during the YTD/February highs to a 1 out of 10 currently, of $53bn and representing a short position from CTA/trend followers and 1-yr low lengths from risk parity style + VA vol-control products. 

As a result, Goldman now has CTAs as modeled buyers in every scenario over the next week and month.

 

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/22/2025 - 14:45