The Coming AI Debt Deluge

Authord by MBI Deep Dives

One of the core differences of the current AI revolution from the earlier bubble periods was that almost all of the funding so far has come from operating cash flow (OCF) of some of the most profitable companies on earth. Despite massive capex increases in recent years, all the major public companies (except Oracle) participating in this investment cycle has healthy Free Cash Flow (FCF) so far. Meta, for example, generated ~$50 Billion FCF in the last 12 months although one-third of it was just SBC. But cash is cash…if you need hundreds of billions over multiple periods to get to the promised land, there is still a healthy difference between OCF and Capex of some of these big tech. Investments funded by internally generated cash can go on for a long time as long as market remains receptive to such investments.

However, we are starting to see some changes in funding mix as debt has gradually come to the scene. One thing about debt entering the conversation is debt itself can be a great forcing function to manage the potential overinvestment cycle as interest payment obligations and balance sheet leverage can put some hard constraints to keep you disciplined.

Big tech understands this and hence are resorting to some “helping hands” in their investment journey. For example, last week Meta entered in a Joint Venture (JV) with Blue Owl Capital for their $27-Billion Hyperion Data Center campus, of which Meta will own 20% and the rest will be owned by funds managed by Blue Owl Capital. Meta is signing an “operating lease” with an initial term of only four years. They have the option to extend the lease every four years, but they are not obligated to.

To persuade the JV to accept the short four-year leases, Meta provided a “Residual Value Guarantee” (RVG) covering the first 16 years of operations. If Meta decides to leave (by not renewing or terminating the lease) within the first 16 years, they guarantee the campus will still be worth a certain amount of money (undisclosed). This payment is “capped” i.e. there is a pre-agreed maximum limit to how much Meta would have to pay. Again, we don’t know the exact capped limit in this deal.

The structure of this deal, featuring short 4-year leases combined with a long-term RVG on a highly specialized asset, closely resembles a financial tool known as a Synthetic Lease.

In a synthetic lease, the tenant (Meta) gains the flexibility of short commitments and favorable accounting treatment (keeping the debt off their balance sheet). However, to convince investors (Blue Owl Capital) to fund the construction, the tenant must assume the majority of the financial risks of ownership. The RVG achieves this risk transfer. To secure financing for such a massive, specialized asset, this cap must be set very high. While we don’t know the exact number, my guess is it’s likely somewhere between 80% to 90%. If we assume it to be 85%, for the $27 Billion Hyperion campus, Meta’s maximum possible exposure is $22.95 Billion.

If Meta decides to terminate the lease within the 16-year RVG period, the payout is determined by the following calculation:

Guaranteed Value at time of exit - Actual Market Value = Shortfall

Meta pays the shortfall, but only up to the agreed-upon cap (estimated at $22.95B). The guaranteed value is likely just a a pre-agreed schedule that decreases over the 16 years, representing the value the investors expect the asset to hold as they recoup their investment through Meta’s lease payments. Of course, actual market value (AMV) is the real variable here. If the specialized technology becomes obsolete or the market softens, the AMV could plummet.

Given Meta’s backing, the bonds issued to fund this investment received investment grade credit rating. However, the bonds were issued at 6.58% yield which is closer to junk bond yield.

Why is the yield so high? If the value of the data center catastrophically collapses due to obsolescence or for some other reasons, Meta’s RVG covers most of the loss, but the investors bear the portion exceeding the cap. Moreover, the debt belongs to the project entity, it is “structurally subordinated” to Meta’s own corporate debt. Investors demand a higher yield to compensate for this “tail risk”.

More importantly, the underlying collateral is a hyper-specialized AI data center. If Meta leaves, it’s likely that the facility cannot be easily repurposed. While the RVG mitigates the financial loss, the specialized nature of the underlying asset still influences the perceived risk and pushes the yield higher.

My guess is Meta (and other big tech) will do more of these deals going forward. In fact, just yesterday, Oracle appears to be raising debt even larger than Hyperion deal: $38 Billion for building data centers in Texas and Wisconsin. If the deal goes through, it would be the largest debt deal so far in AI infrastructure.

I am very curious to see what the yields will be for debts issued by Oracle, especially given their cash position and balance sheet leverage is considerably inferior than Meta’s. Moreover, if these companies keep doing these deals, the yield may only go higher as the risk for later debt deals will gradually increase for the bondholders. Perhaps AI infrastructure spree can cool a lot when the debt yields get close to double digit yield. Indeed, while debt funded infrastructure investments will certainly raise the risk profile of these companies, having some debt into the system can make everyone all on a sudden a lot more disciplined in their AI infrastructure investments.

There are, however, compelling reasons for companies such as Meta to deploy less cash from their own balance sheet and get as much helping hand as they can get as long as the market remains receptive to such deals.

While Meta is confident that the demand for compute will continue to grow massively, they are likely less certain about what kind of compute infrastructure will be optimal in five or ten years. A data center is typically a 20-30 year asset. If Meta built and owned Hyperion, they would be committed to the physical footprint, power delivery, and cooling design made in 2025.

I do want to note that in a separate blog post, Meta indicated that their infrastructure is built in a way to accommodate flexibility for their 1 GW data center project in El Paso, Texas:

AI, and its inference and training needs, is still evolving, so our design needs to balance what we know today with what we might know in the future. Different AI configurations will require different approaches to hardware and network systems designs, so our new data centers are built to accommodate flexibility. For example, we’ve designed the El Paso data center to have systems that can support both the traditional servers of today and future generations of AI-enabled hardware

If they can build such flexible design, why is the obsolescence concern still valid? My guess is “flexible design” often means that a future retrofit is possible, not that it is easy or cheap. At some point, the cost of retrofitting an old “flexible” design exceeds the cost of simply moving into a new facility optimized for the new technology. In any case, such flexibility likely only addresses the known unknowns and may not able to cater to unknown unknowns 5-10 years from now. The flexibility Meta is buying with the Hyperion lease structure is “strategic flexibility”. While design flexibility lets you adapt the asset, strategic flexibility affords you the ability to exit the asset, but of course, at a price!

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 14:20

Goldman Spots Four Big Takeaways From Last Week's U.S. Auto, Industrial Tech Earnings

Goldman analysts highlighted several critical themes, including AI, autonomy, and robotics, alongside solid US auto demand, after last week's earnings from Tesla (TSLA), General Motors (GM), Ford (F), Visteon (VC), Gentex (GNTX), QuantumScape (QS), Mobileye (MBLY), Amphenol (APH), and Vertiv (VRT).

Analyst Mark Delaney found that datacenter capex remains robust, as indicated by earnings reports from Amphenol and Vertiv. He said General Motors and Ford had solid earnings, suggesting that healthy consumer credit performance is tied to prime borrowers. However, he warned that the Nexperia-related mess in the chip industry could disrupt auto supply chains worldwide (read here). 

Delaney outlined four key observations after last week's earnings reports:

1. Datacenter capex trends are robust per Amphenol and Vertiv;

2. Auto demand is solid in the US, per GM and Ford;

3. The export restriction on Nexperia (the former NXP standards product business) could lead to auto production disruptions in the coming weeks if there isn't a resolution among governments very soon;

4. Ford and GM are both seeing healthy trends in their financial services businesses (which are mostly tied to prime borrowers). We detail these topics in more depth later in this note.

Here are the top questions Delaney's team received from investors last week, centered on the stocks covered in this note:

1. The attainability of AV targets (e.g. can Tesla can take the safety monitor out of its robotaxis in Texas in 2025 as it plans);

2. The timing for humanoids including Optimus to ramp;

3. What can happen to auto EBIT in 2026 at Ford and GM as emissions rules change and given the Novelis fire that will limit truck supply and potentially support market pricing;

4. The sustainability of datacenter capex in 2026/2027 and beyond (and how good it needs to be for stocks like VRT to outperform).

An expanded view of the key themes from last week's earnings:

Demand trends:

• Datacenter: Both Amphenol and Vertiv reported robust datacenter related demand. Amphenol's total orders grew 38% yoy and 11% sequentially, and Vertiv's orders increased organically by about 60% yoy and 20% sequentially. Amphenol's IT datacom segment sales were up 128% yoy organically, and Amphenol guided 4Q IT datacom segments sales to be up slightly sequentially. Both companies expect datacenter strength to continue. Importantly, Amphenol commented it expects to have a strong position on future AI platforms, which is consistent with our takeaways from a recent call with an industry expert.

• Auto demand remains solid. GM and Ford both had strong 3Q results, and both companies expect the US light vehicle SAAR to be more than 16 mn this year. GM and Ford also both expect industry pricing to rise slightly in 2025 (GM expects up 0.5% to 1% in North America, and Ford expects up about 0.5% in the US).

• US EV demand was strong in 3Q aided by the expiration of the IRA purchase credit at the end of the quarter. Tesla stated its North America EV deliveries were up 28% qoq (and we believe up >10% yoy in the US in 3Q), GM's US EV sales were up 107% yoy and Ford's EV sales in the US grew 30%. Several companies have suggested EV demand will slow for at least a period of time post the IRA EV purchase credit expiration, with GM saying it has seen slower EV demand in October, and Ford commented that EV mix could decline to ~5% in the near term (note that EV mix for the US market has been high single digits in the US YTD and was a low double digit share of the market in 3Q per Motor Intelligence). Similarly, per media reports, Rivian is laying off >600 workers (or about 4.5% of its workforce) reflecting the changing industry backdrop.

• GM and Ford are both still investing in EV and battery technology. GM is working on LMR battery technology. In addition, GM announced plans last week to bring new technology to market in 2028 on the Cadillac Escalade IQ EV, including eyes-off driving capability and centralized compute. Ford commented it remains on track for its Universal EV platform to be out in 2027 with sourcing 95% complete, and that its Marshall plant is on track to start LFP production later in 2025.

• Growth over market a focus for auto tier 1s - Visteon undergrew its customer weighted production by 5% in 2Q driven by customer exposure/mix factors, but the company expects low single digit growth over market in 2025, and Visteon expects to return to outgrowth in the China market next year. Gentex's implied growth under market in its primary markets for 3Q was 8%. Gentex highlighted certain decontenting and mix headwinds, particularly in Europe as drivers of its growth under market for 3Q.

Supply Chain Risks

• Per comments from GM, Ford, Visteon, and Gentex - the auto industry could face disruptions from the Nexperia chip disruption if the government export control that began on 10/4 isn't lifted very soon. Companies spoke to typical inventory buffers being ~3-4 weeks. Several companies commented they are already working on alternative sources of supply, but there may be limits in the short-term to finding pin for pin compatible chips for everything Nexperia (the former NXP standard products business) provides.

• On the impact from the Novelis aluminum plant fire, Ford expects a $1.5-$2.0 bn EBIT impact in 2025 (reflecting lost volume of 90-100k vehicles), but believes it will make up $1 bn+ in 2026 by increasing F-Series production by 50K+ units in 2026. Novelis posted an update, stating it now expects the hot mill to come back online by the end of 2025 (compared to its prior expectation of this occurring in 1Q26). GM commented it was not materially effected by this event.

Policy - tariffs and emissions

• Emissions rules: Both GM and Ford expect new emissions rules in the US to allow them to purchase fewer emissions credits and be able to better optimize mix next year. Conversely, Tesla expects reduced sales of regulatory credits going forward, but Tesla did enter into new contracts, and we expect international markets especially Europe to remain a source of regulatory credit revenue for the company.

• Tariffs: The updated US auto tariff policy announced on 10/17 allowed both GM and Ford to reduce their assumption for tariff exposure in 2025 guidance (Ford now assumes a net headwind of $1 bn and GM a net headwind of about $2.6 bn). This updated policy not only extended the up to 3.75% MSRP tariff offset to be for five years (through April 2030), but allows credits to be used for a wider pool of parts and will also give credits for US made engines. Ford's guidance assumes tariffs in 4Q will be a net tailwind (we think as it can now recognize more credits including some for costs incurred in 2Q/3Q). While the exact treatment of the updated tariff order is not finalized, we see the potential for GM's tariff exposure to trend toward the lower end of its new guidance especially if a reduced Korea rate is finalized. Importantly, both Ford and GM believe tariffs in 2026 could be similar to the costs in 2025. Separately, the executive order from 10/17 also implemented tariffs on medium and heavy-duty vehicles, effective November 1st. Recall that Ford currently assembles all of its medium and heavy-duty vehicles in the US, and GM stated that it expects a minimal impact from this tariff (GM assembles heavy-duty trucks in Michigan).

• However, per media reports, the Canadian government is cutting the amount of American-assembled vehicles GM can import tariff-free by 24% and reducing the amount for Stellantis by 50%, effective immediately. Based on vehicle sales and manufacturing data from Wards and IHS, we estimate that GM imported ~75-125K vehicles into Canada in 2024 from the US. While the media report does not cite a change in policy for Ford, for context, we estimate that Ford imported 200-225K vehicles into Canada in 2024.

Auto Finance

• Auto finance has been topical post insolvency issues at First Brands and Tricolor. Both GM and Ford shared that their financial services businesses remain healthy (the financing businesses of both companies are mostly exposed to prime borrowers), and EBT in 3Q for both companies at their financial companies was up yoy. Ford noted that high risk borrowers are only 3% of its portfolio, and its FICO scores are >750. Ford Credit posted its 3Q25 results presentation, and characterized the business as strong and exhibiting typical seasonality. GM similarly stated that while its subprime book is very small, even in this part of its portfolio performance has been pretty consistent.

• We consider the reports from GM and Ford as directionally consistent with our recent deep dive on auto finance trends. Recall we found delinquencies had risen but this was driven mostly by subprime borrowers and in the used market. Prime delinquencies have risen somewhat for the industry but to a much lesser extent than subprime. The majority of lending for the new vehicle market is to prime borrowers. And we found by reviewing >1K ABS filings that delinquencies/repossessions were well within typical ranges and low at both GM and Ford, and residual values of vehicles coming off lease remained positive. We appreciate that lending trends can quickly change, and we still believe this topic merits monitoring. However, we continue to view the new vehicle market as solid in the US.

AI, AVs and robotics topical on earnings calls and industry podcasts Autonomy and Robotaxis

• Tesla reiterated its plan to take the safety monitor out of its AVs in Austin by year end, and also commented that it believes its new v14 series of FSD should be capable of reaching eyes-off functionality and allowing users to perform tasks such as texting. Mobileye commented it remains on track to start driver-out deployments of its Drive robotaxi solution in 2026 (Mobileye plans for its AV tech to be a part of both the Uber and Lyft networks).

• Separately, GM announced it plans to bring eyes-off/hands-off driving to the market in 2028 with the Escalade IQ, and its management team emphasized in a podcast (with CEO Mary Barra and Chief Product Officer Sterling Anderson) its focus on safety and track record with its L2 product Super Cruise. GM also intends to bring Gemini conversational AI into its vehicles starting in 2026, and plans to move away from Apple CarPlay and Android Auto in future vehicle launches. Separately, Andrej Karpathy, the former Senior Director of AI at Tesla (he departed Tesla in 2022) and a founding member of OpenAI, was on a podcast that was published on 10/17, and commented that AGI may be about 10 years away, but also that this technology is achievable. He added that truly solving self driving is nowhere near done in his opinion. Using the 'March of Nines' framework (i.e. the AVs needs to reach well over 99% accuracy to be deployed due to safety issues), he described getting the tech 90% right as only the first nine, and each nine can take as long as the last, and there are several more nines still left. He highlighted that there were very good AV demos as far back as 1986, and that an actual product is very different from a demo.

Robotics

• Tesla commented that it expects to unveil Optimus V3 in 1Q26 with production potentially beginning towards the end of 2026. Recall the company had commented on its 2Q call that it expected to have a prototype late this year and scale production next year. Separately, recall that management has previously noted that it believes it can get to >1 mn annual units per year for Optimus by the end of the decade.

• GM's CEO and CPO commented on a podcast that GM has roughly 30K robots deployed in 11 sites where it has about 97K production workers, including AMRs and cobots, with development led by its Advanced Robotics Center (with labs in Warren, MI and Mountain View, CA).

• We hosted Jabil for a virtual meeting on robotics and automation on 10/24. Rafael Renno (SVP, Global Business units) and Adam Berry (SVP, IR and Corporate Communications) joined for the webinar. Jabil believes that humanoids have promise (both for its own operations and to manufacture for customers), but thinks it could be 2-3+ years before humanoids are a meaningful part of its own operations due to safety, technology, and cost dynamics. The company also commented that there are other robots/cobots/robotic arms that work well today and not every robot needs to be bipedal.

• Separately, per a New York Times article, Amazon has a goal to automate 75% of its warehouse operations.

Top and bottom 5 weekly performers in the GS coverage

ZeroHedge Pro Subs can read the full note in the usual place. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 14:00

David Stockman On How The Fed's Money Printing Broke American Industry... And What Comes Next

Authored by David Stockman via InternationalMan.com,

You can bet the 12 purported geniuses on the FOMC have never looked at the graph below.

It shows that for all their wild-ass money printing in recent years, the US index of manufacturing output stands at 101.39, which is nearly 5% below the level reached on the eve of the financial crisis in December 2007.

That’s right. The US manufacturing economy has been shrinking in real physical terms for the past 18 years, notwithstanding the fact that during that interval the Fed has printed nearly $6 trillion in brand, spanking new money that it snatched from thin air.

So something big and bad happened after the Fed went all in on money-printing in response to the stock market meltdown in the fall of 2008. After all, during the 28 years between 1972 and 2000 the very opposite occurred. Manufacturing output in the US rose by nearly 150%, which translates to a 3.3% growth rate per annum.

Yet there is no mystery as to why manufacturing output abruptly went flatter than a board after the Financial Crisis. To wit, the mad money-printers in the Eccles Building simply inflated the bejesus out of the US economy at a time when what was urgently needed was a stern deflation of an already inflation-bloated industrial sector.

Here’s the thing: the price of a Pilates studio session or dentist visit is mainly driven by supply and demand balances in local markets, but with today’s shipping and communications technology, the manufacture of durable goods is subject to ferocious global competition.

Indeed, when you look at the current fully loaded (for fringes and benefits) wage rates among major foreign suppliers, it is no wonder that the output of US-manufactured goods has flatlined.

Average Fully Loaded Manufacturing Wages Per Hour in 2024:

• Vietnam: $3.50

• India: $4.50

• Mexico: $5.00

• China: $6.00

• S. Korea: $20.50

• Canada: $22.00

• Japan: $28.00

• UK: $30.00

• EU-27: $32.50

• USA: $44.25

Well, for crying out loud! What’s the mystery?

The USA has priced itself out of the global manufacturing market, which is exactly why America has been running chronic and massive trade deficits that reached the staggering annual level of $1.2 trillion in 2024. Indeed, the collapse of America’s trade balance has been relentless over the last 30 years, with the deficit rising by 10X, from $10 billion to $100 billion. Per month!

And, no, POTUS, foreign trading partners did not suddenly turn into ever-worsening unfair trade cheats in the last three decades. The cause of the plunging line below is domiciled on the banks of the Potomac, not in foreign capitals.

The vast gap between US manufacturing wages and those of our major trading partners has been building relentlessly since the early 1990s, when Greenspan put the Fed in the monetary central planning business. Back then, the fully loaded US manufacturing wage was about $18.50 per hour, meaning that it has risen in nominal terms by 2.4X since then.

However, owing to the Fed’s relentless pro-inflation policies, the CPI index has risen by 124%, meaning that in 2024 dollars, the 1992 fully loaded manufacturing wage was $41.10 per hour.

Accordingly, workers who managed to keep their jobs gained barely 7% over one-third of a century from all of the Fed’s pro-inflation money printing, even as the ever-rising level of nominal US wages made blue-collar workers a sitting duck in global markets.

Again, for want of doubt, see the gaping fully loaded international manufacturing wage levels in US dollars shown above.

Of course, the Fed’s fanboys on Wall Street say not to worry—productivity gains will offset the nominal wage gains. That was partially true for a few years during the technology-driven productivity boom of the 1990s, but no more. Since 2007 unit labor costs in US manufacturing have soared by +53%, which exactly coincides with the deep plunge in the US trade deficit in goods after the turn of the century.

In short, what America really needed from the early 1990s onward, as the China export machine and its worldwide supply chain came to life, was zero inflation at worst and ideally a spell of price, wage, and cost deflation to offset the vast ballooning of US production costs after Tricky Dick Nixon severed the dollar’s link to gold in August 1971.

Between that date and mid-1992, the general price level in the US rose by 250%, and now stands at 700% above its June 1971 level. Is there any wonder, then, that the US has priced itself out of the global manufacturing market?

Of course, this sheer monetary insanity is justified by the Fed on the grounds that inflation is good for prosperity, at least to the extent of 2.00% annually, year in and year out.

Except there is not a shred of historical evidence or sound economic logic to justify the Fed’s sacred 2.00% target. It’s just a handy excuse for running the printing presses at rates which please the gamblers on Wall Street and the Spenders in Washington.

Industrial production is the heart of the modern economy and the main source of sustainable gains in real output and living standards. Even a half-assed assessment of the world in 1990 would have told any honest and capable monetary central planner that wringing out some of the 250% increase in the domestic cost and price level that had accumulated since Camp David was imperative if the US was to remain competitive in global markets.

Alas, the Keynesian fools who took over the nation’s central bank under Greenspan’s leadership cooked up a closed bathtub style model of the US economy, and conferred upon themselves the Keynesian mission of keeping “aggregate demand” full to the brim via low interest rates and massive injections of fiat credits into the nation’s financial markets.

That was a drastic error from the get-go, but the money-printing gospel is of such convenience to both ends of the Acela Corridor that this cardinal pro-inflation error rolls forward unquestioned by both wings of the UniParty.

Accordingly, with inflation stalled at more than 3.0%, when it should be zero or negative, the Fed has again sung the Einstein Chorus. That is to say, these “insane” apparatchiks seem to believe that doing the same thing over and over again—even after 700% inflation—will finally generate a positive outcome.

*  *  *

As David Stockman makes clear, the Fed’s reckless monetary experiment has left America’s industrial core hollowed out and investors dangerously exposed to the next great reckoning. But every crisis creates its own opportunity—and those who understand the forces at work can still come out ahead. That’s why legendary investor Doug Casey has just released a special video revealing what the mainstream media won’t tell you about gold—and why it may be the single most important move you can make before the next phase of this monetary storm hits. Watch Doug Casey’s urgent briefing here—while it’s still available.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 13:40

Stellar 5Y Auction Stops Through, As Foreign Demand Jumps

90 minutes after the day's first auction, which saw foreign demand for $69Bn in 2Y paper slide, moments ago the Treasury concluded its second coupon auction of the day, and this one was far stronger. 

Pricing at a high yield of 3.625%, not only was this the lowest high yield since Sept 24, but also stopped through the 3.626% When Issued by 0.1bps, the first stop through for the 5Y tenor since May, in many ways a mirror image of what we said in today's earlier auction.

The bid to cover - which has traded in an extremely narrow range in the past year between 2.30 and 2.50 - rose from 2.34 to 2.38, the highest since May, and above the 2.36 recent average. 

The internals were more impressive, with Indirects jumping from 59.42 last month to 66.84, the highest since May and above the 64.2% recent average: this sharp increase in foreign demand was also a mirror image to the slide in Indirects in today's earlier 2Y auction. And with Directs awarded 23.9%, or down from 28.6% and the lowest since May (a far cry from the near record Directs in today's 2Y auction, if above the recent average of 22.1%), Dealers were left with a modest 9.3% of the 5Y auction, below the recent average of 10.7%.

Overall, this was a much more solid auction than the earlier 2Y sale, and yields reflected this with 10Y yields dipping below 4.00% having risen as high as 4.04% earlier.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 13:32

Between A Dock & A Hard Place: Record Short Oil Positions Squeezed By Sanctions Despite Record Crude Glut On-Water

There are some extreme dichotomies in the crude complex currently that are worth a quick look...

Amid what Eric Nuttall coined as "the most anticipated oil supply glut in history"...

Why "we remain bullish" on natural gas and a quick update on "the most anticipated oil supply glut in history"™️: pic.twitter.com/C5QK50nMVz

— Eric Nuttall (@ericnuttall) October 24, 2025

... crude prices had fallen to 5-month lows just over a week ago. Then Washington unleashed sanctions on two of Russia's oil giants, Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC (and India and China suggested it would cut back on Russian oil purchases, implying demand for alternatives), prices for oil surged back higher...

OilPrice reports that India imported 19.93 million tons of crude oil last month, a 1.7% increase from August, the Economic Times reported, citing government data. The total is equal to roughly 4.87 million barrels daily.

The annual increase in imports for September was more pronounced, at 6.1%, the data also showed.

In oil products, the government’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell reported imports of 4.40 million tons, which was a 20.9% increase on September 2024. Product exports, on the other hand, fell by 4.8% to 6.18 million tons.

But, the publication also reported that Russian exports of crude oil to India declined by 8.4% over the three months to September amid shrinking discounts and tighter availability of barrels. The decline is expected to become sharper in the coming weeks, following the latest U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, targeting two of the largest exporters—Rosneft and Lukoil.

India needs more local discoveries of oil and gas in order to be able to meet future energy demand, the secretary of petroleum and natural gas at the Indian energy ministry said.

“One day, we will be looking at a situation where alternative forms of energy will increasingly matter more for incremental demand satisfaction than fossil fuels,” Pankaj Jain said, as quoted by PTI.

Additionally, supertanker freight futures surged on Thursday and Friday after the U.S. sanctions against Russia’s biggest oil firms created a rush to replace Russian barrels. 

The front-month supertanker contracts on the route Middle East to China, the benchmark route, jumped by 16% on Thursday, to the highest level in nearly two years, according to data from the Baltic Exchange data cited by Bloomberg.

“We anticipate the rush for replacement crudes will be larger and more sustained because of the exhaustive list of Russian producers under OFAC sanctions,” Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage, told Bloomberg. 

Supertanker rates were already rising earlier this month due to the latest tit-for-tat fees on port callings in the U.S.-China trade spat.

The port fees threaten to create additional vortexes in global oil flows. 

Ahead of the rally, money managers boosted bearish positions on the global benchmark by 40,233 lots to 197,868 in the week ended Oct. 21, according to ICE Futures Europe. That's the most on record... providing a lot of ammunition for a sizable short squeeze...

...as traders worldwide bet on mounting evidence that a long-anticipated supply surplus is finally underway with a flotilla of crude oil on the world’s oceans expanded to a fresh high as producer nations keep adding barrels and the tankers sail further for deliveries...

Production is rising from members of the OPEC+ group of nations, which are unwinding earlier output cuts - as well as countries outside the group, predominantly in the Americas, where Guyana recently started pumping from a new offshore field and US output hit a new high.

The build-up comes at a time when demand growth is slowing, with forecasters predicting a surplus that could rise to as much as 4 million barrels a day in the early months of next year.

However, as Eric Nuttall reminds, inventory on land is much lower than expected...

"...onshore inventories have FALLEN by 39MM Bbls in the first 20 days of October, and are actually the tightest to the 5 year average in ~ 4 months. It wasn't supposed to be like this!"

...and much of the oil-on-water is already headed to specific processing units.

Finally, remember China is stockpiling 500k barrels-a-day for its own Strategic Petroleum Reserve, so there's plenty of demand (for bulls to squeeze on), but any progress toward peace, such as reviving Budapest meeting plans, may undermine the rally as will chatter that OPEC+ is currently expected to focus on reviving another modest sliver of oil production in December as a base case when key members meet this weekend, according to two delegates.

Domestic demand is booming too, as Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes, US oil consumption is heading toward a 18-year high of 20.59 million b/d in 2025. And further increases are likely.

That's a lot of supply, demand, and positioning extremes to consider.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 13:25

Wrecking Ball Politics: Swalwell Calls for Destructive Pledge from Democratic Presidential Candidates

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., did the impossible last week: he reached a new low in American politics.

Previously, Swalwell mocked a female senator after she complained about being threatened by leftists.

However, even on the Swalwell scale, it is hard to measure the depths of a member who calls for potential presidents to pledge to demolish the Trump ballroom as a litmus test for office.

Consider that for a second.

According to Swalwell, Democrats will only consider politicians who promise to destroy a $300 million building to appease the lowest common denominator of their party.

Swalwell went on X to declare:

“Don’t even think of seeking the Democratic nomination for president unless you pledge to take a wrecking ball to the Trump Ballroom on DAY ONE.”

That is Eric Swalwell’s measure of a president: the willingness to destroy hundreds of millions of dollars in construction in an anti-Trump fit.

One can object to the unilateral decision to tear down the East Wing, but Trump likely has the authority to do so.

Past presidents have ordered substantial alterations to the building. What is also clear is that the White House has long needed a ballroom. Trump is right that it is embarrassing to have guests at state dinners sit outside in a tent, since we are among the few major countries without such a space.

Even the Washington Post has come out in favor of the ballroom and said that future presidents will value the addition. However, Swalwell wants the next president to commit to destroying it as a political statement.

The rhetoric continued to ratchet up over the ballroom last week. It is clear that Swalwell was not getting through, as people piled onto social media to denounce the move. He then came up with something that no sane person would demand.

What is interesting is that he is right about one thing. Such a pledge would be useful for voters. Anyone taking the Swalwell pledge would instantly disqualify themselves from the office in the minds of most Americans.

While it certainly worked to get Swalwell back in the news, it was for all the wrong reasons. While Miley Cyrus may have ridden a wrecking ball to fame, Swalwell is unlikely to ride the wave of rage to relevancy in American politics.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 13:05

Treasury Secretary Warns US Won't Be Able To Pay Military By Nov. 15

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that active military service members will miss their paychecks by Nov. 15 if the government shutdown persists, while suggesting that it’s not certain that all of them will be paid at the start of November.

“I think we'll be able to pay them beginning in November, but by Nov. 15 our troops and service members who are willing to risk their lives aren’t going to be able to get paid,” Bessent said during CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday morning.

The shutdown, which was initiated on Oct. 1, has furloughed around 750,000 federal employees and left others working without pay. Troops, however, have been paid by the Trump administration during the funding lapse after money was shifted money.

A private donor also sent the government a $130 million check to help cover the paychecks of around 1.3 million active service members, confirmed President Donald Trump last week. The individual who made the donation doesn’t want to be named, he said.

“He called us the other day and he said, ‘I’d like to contribute any shortfall you have because of the Democrat shutdown. I’d like to contribute, personally, contribute any shortfall you have with the military, because I love the military and I love the country, and any shortfall, if there’s a shortfall, I’ll contribute it,’” Trump said in a a roundtable meeting with his Cabinet members.

The funding lapse that sparked the shutdown came about after members of Congress could not—and still are unable to—agree on funding the government.

Democrats insist that a measure to reopen the government include a permanent extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year. They also demand the reversal of provisions from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which was signed into law in July, that exclude asylum seekers, refugees, and those on certain visas from qualifying for Affordable Care Act coverage starting in 2027. Republicans have said that Democrats’ demands are akin to a hostage situation and said these issues should be debated separately, rather than as a condition for reopening the government.

On Sunday, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told CBS that there is an urgent need to reopen the government.

“Which is why we continue to demand that Republicans sit at the negotiating table so we can enact a spending agreement that’s bipartisan in nature,” Jeffries stated.

“That’s what we’ve called for from the very beginning.”

He added that Democrats’ ongoing intransigence over voting for a GOP-backed plan to reopen the government would effectively be them supporting a “spending bill that continues to gut the healthcare of the American people, in an environment where Republicans have already enacted the largest cut to Medicaid in American history.”

When Bessent was asked about the possibility of congressional Democrats having a meeting with Trump, the Treasury secretary said, “I don’t know what good it does.”

“This is a Democratic-led boycott, and I’m just not sure what they’re doing,” Bessent also said, urging moderate Democrats to “be heroes” and join Republicans in voting to reopen the government without conditions.

Other than military pay, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and states have warned that the shutdown could imperil the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program food stamps program starting Nov. 1.

“Bottom line, the well has run dry,” the USDA recently said in a post on its website while chastising Democrats for refusing to vote to reopen the government.

“They can continue to hold out for healthcare for illegal aliens and gender mutilation procedures or reopen the government so mothers, babies, and the most vulnerable among us can receive critical nutrition assistance.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 12:25

Watch: Schwarzenegger Terminates Jake Tapper's Entire Argument Over Gerrymandering

Former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger gave CNN's Jake Tapper a sharp rebuke after the anchor suggested that gerrymandering is primarily a Republican issue. 

Via Emily Brooks

"No, Jake. There has been gerrymandering going on for 200 years," Schwarzenegger hit back, noting that both Massachusetts and New Mexico are prime examples of it.

"In a state like Massachusetts, it has like 40% of the people voting for Trump, they have zero representatives," he said. "The Republican Party has zero representatives sent to the House. Think about that."

In New Mexico, "45% of the people voted for Trump and vote Republican, and zero is sent to the House, zero representatives from the Republican Party," he continued. 

NEW: Arnold Schwarzenegger claps back at CNN's Jake Tapper, calls out "extreme gerrymandering" in blue states.

Tapper: "Do you believe that the Republican Party is starting this?"

Schwarzenegger: "No, Jake. There has been gerrymandering going on for 200 years."

"There is such… pic.twitter.com/ovxGJ6ll8p

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 26, 2025

"I think when he - when they say this is temporary, there is no such thing. I mean, the longest programs are government programs that are temporary. Okay, just remember that if this is a tax program or if it is the redistricting program, anything that is temporary with government is permanent," Schwarzenegger told Tapper. 

The former governor stepped back into the political arena in August to crusade against partisan redistricting, joining former GOP Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), donor Charlie Munger Jr., and state GOP legislators - in opposing a plan by California Governor Gavin Newsom to stage a special election this fall to bypass the Golden State's independent redistricting commission so they can gerrymander mid-decade. 

The California plan would effectively nullify Republican redistricting in Texas.

"In the year 2032 when the independent redistricting commission is supposed to come back, they‘re going to say, ‘Wait a minute. There‘s still gerrymandering going on in Texas. There‘s still gerrymandering going on in Ohio. There‘s still gerrymandering going on in Florida. We have to continue with gerrymandering.’ This is what‘s going to happen. They will find an excuse. So therefore I don‘t think it is temporary. So that‘s total fantasy," Schwarzenegger said. 

And of course, Tapper brought up that Arnold's dad was a Nazi.

While discussing Senate Democrat hopeful Graham Platner's Nazi tattoo and the leaked Young Republicans group chat, Tapper said: "The reason I bring [these controversies] up is because you have spoken so movingly in the past about your father‘s membership in the Nazi Party—denouncing it. What is your message to anybody in politics today embracing or praising Nazis or Hitler in any way?"

After a pause Schwarzenegger admitted that he didn't "know anything" about the scandals, but said "I can just tell you one thing... Anyone that idolizes Nazis, it‘s bad news. Because we have been there before, and we have seen the outcome."

"There are no winners, okay? It‘s that simple. And I think that‘s not the direction we want to go."

Schwarzenegger's father Gustav was a member of the Nazi party until he was wounded in the Battle of Leningrad in 1943. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 12:05

2Y Auction Tails As Foreign Buyers Balk Ahead Of Rate Cut But Directs Soar To 2nd Highest Ever

Thanks to this week's accelerate bond auction schedule, the result of Wednesday's FOMC decision, moments ago we got the first of two coupon auctions scheduled for today when the Treasury sold $69 billion in 2Y notes in what was an ok auction.

The offering priced at a high yield of 3.504%, down from 3.571% in September and the lowest since August 2022. The bond also tailed the 3.503% When Issued by 0.1bps, the first tail for the tenor since April.

The bid to cover rose modestly from 2.513 in September to 2.590 which was just above the 2.581 six-auction average. 

The internals were interesting: while Indirects dropped to just 53.7% from 57.8% in September, the lowest since March 2023 (when banks were blowing up left and right), it was Directs that stole the show by taking down a whopping 34.8%, the second highest on record.

The left 11.6% for Dealers, right on top of the recent average of 11.5%.

Overall, this was a mixed auction, with the tail and drop in foreign demand negatives, but offset by the relentless demand for paper by domestic Direct bidders (i.e. everyone who is not a primary dealer), suggesting that demand remains solid if hardly stellar, especially with the Fed set to cut rates in 2 days. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 11:59

Army To Bring Nuclear Microreactors To Its Bases By 2028

By Eric Tegler of TWZ.com,

Army installations within the lower 48 states will have operating nuclear microreactors starting in the fall of 2028 if the Army’s Janus program moves forward on schedule.

The addition of nuclear power will diversify the energy sources available on military bases and provide a critical enhancement to their resiliency, the Army says. 

“What resilience means to us is that we have power, no matter what, 24/7,” Dr. Jeff Waksman, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Installations, Energy and Environment, said during a media roundtable attended by TWZ at last week’s Association of the U.S. Army’s (AUSA) main annual conference.

Waksman’s comments followed a briefing earlier in the day at which Army Secretary Daniel P. Driscoll and Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Christopher Wright jointly announced the launch of the Janus Program. 

This morning, I joined @SecretaryWright and @ASArmyIEE Assistant Secretary Dr. Jeff Waksman to launch Janus Program, a major leap forward in bringing safe, mobile nuclear energy to the @USArmy.

In partnership with @Energy and top U.S. innovators, we’re building the future of… pic.twitter.com/lbHop10piT

— Secretary of the Army (@SecArmy) October 14, 2025

“The U.S. Army is leading the way on fielding innovative and disruptive technology,” Driscoll said. “We are shredding red tape and incubating next-generation capabilities in a variety of critical sectors, including nuclear power.”

Janus is the Army’s plan to realize President Donald Trump’s Executive Order 14299, titled “Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security,” which directs the Department of War to commence operation of an Army-regulated nuclear reactor at a domestic military installation no later than September 30, 2028.

Some time in the next few weeks, barring a long extension of the government shutdown, the Army will release an Area of Interest (AOI) solicitation with a draft request for proposals (RFP) attached, according to Waksman. An industry day event thereafter will give the Army feedback on potential microreactor approaches and contact with interested companies and startups. 

A competition will follow, after which the Army expects to select multiple companies to build and deliver microreactor prototypes to an initial batch of base/installation sites (likely nine sites) yet to be determined. The companies selected will each be given one Army site to deliver their prototypes to, and each firm will be required to build two reactors.   

“They will build one, and then in a staggered fashion, build a second,” Waksman explained. “The reason why we’re doing that is because you have to get to Nth-of-a-kind to have a commercial product. [By Nth-of-a-kind Waksman means multiple units of a product or, in this case, reactor.] We want to see that these companies have a path to get from their first prototype to the second one and beyond to the Nth-of-a-kind.”

The program is named for Janus, an ancient Roman god of beginnings, gates, and transitions. Accordingly, its approach is about transitioning from one-off prototypes to multiple-unit commercial systems, Waksman added. 

It dovetails with an initiative announced by the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) last April called Advanced Nuclear Power for Installations (ANPI). It also seeks to field nuclear microreactors that can supplement energy sources at DoW installations, whose power is typically drawn from commercial grids.

DIU is a partner in Janus and will contribute funding to the program. It will also act as the contracting officer, and Janus will use its contracting authorities. However, the Army will conduct program management. Waksman says Janus will have different technical requirements than ANPI and reflect changes in the nuclear power market, including new entrants that have emerged since last spring. 

Hovering in the background is yet another nuclear project called Pele, which emerged from the DoD’s Strategic Capabilities Office (SCO) in 2022. The stated intent there was to “design, build, and demonstrate a prototype mobile nuclear reactor within five years.” 

Pele was envisioned as potentially transportable operational nuclear energy, and the project continues with integrator BWXT, which is in the process of manufacturing and delivering the first advanced microreactor. The transportable nuclear reactors developed for Pele are designed to be transported within four 20-foot shipping containers, allowing them to be potentially moved to areas where the military or government may need to stand up power generation infrastructure to support military or other operations. 

While Pele is developmentally interesting, Waksman said, “We do not at this time see nuclear power as a tactical application.” This is largely because tactical reactor development drives up cost, and there is currently no need for megawatt power at the combat edge, Waksman explained.

As such, Janus microreactors will go to domestic installations to bolster energy supply, and some certainly have unique needs for power beyond redundancy. For example, remote Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska relies on a 70-year-old coal-fired power plant on the base for its primary energy needs. Since 2021, the Air Force has been working to at least demonstrate a small nuclear reactor at Eielson for exactly this reason.

A next step beyond could see the deployment of small nuclear reactors to strategic support areas, which could range from the Indo-Pacific periphery, from Hawaii to Pacific islands, for instance, as well as other locales. However, Waksman stresses the need to complete the first phase before further extending the program. 

Energy resilience is the core of Janus. Waksman observed that on Army installations and other service installations, power resiliency is currently 100 percent provided by fossil fuels. Renewable power generation exists on some installations, but is not considered highly resilient, nor a primary source of energy. He added that every grid globally is reliant on a base-load power source – fossil fuel, geothermal, hydropower, or nuclear. 

“Unless you’re in one of the few places in the world where geothermal is viable or you have a dam nearby, your only choices are nuclear or fossil fuel at this time…There’s just no ability to have a grid that works solely on solar and wind and batteries at this point.”

The production platform for BWXT’s Pele prototype core reactor assembly. 

“Anyone who’s seen big solar arrays on military installations knows that the moment that you have a Black Start exercise and the grid goes down, those are immediately cut off. They do not provide power, so the resiliency is fossil fuels. You have a certain number of backup power days, but that is a huge vulnerability…”

Black Start is a congressionally mandated requirement for DoW installations, testing their ability to operate without grid power in an emergency.

The microreactors that Janus will seek to deploy will be what commercial industry refers to as Generation IV or so-called “Passive Reactors” which, by design, cannot melt down. Utilizing low-enriched uranium (to about 5 percent), they will generally not be higher than 20 megawatt plants. Even so, they’ll likely offer surplus power, which could potentially provide energy resiliency to local communities. 

“If everything goes black outside the fence, that’s where most soldiers live, where their families live and where a lot of critical infrastructure is,” Waksman said. “I’ve been to a lot of hardened [military] sites. I’ve yet to see one that is resilient to everything going down outside the fence line. Selling some of this [power] outside the fence line is something that we’re actively interested in doing.”  

A cutaway image of BWXT’s mobile microreactor for Project Pele.

Such a scheme is in a legal gray area, Waksman noted, but there is precedent — a military-based reactor sold energy to an adjacent community in the early 1980s. However, the Army believes it could offer excess power commercially with some limitations. Waksman said that the Department of the Army is currently negotiating with Congress on this issue and is seeing bipartisan support. 

Thanks to the low-enrichment nature of the small reactors, the Army does not expect a requirement for extra force protection at nuclear-powered installations. 

The United States’ existing fleet of reactors runs on uranium fuel that is enriched up to 5 percent with uranium-235, called Low-enriched uranium (LEU). U-235 — the main fissile isotope that produces energy during a chain reaction — is considered safe for use in commercial nuclear reactors.

The ubiquity of LEU makes integration of small reactors on military installations more affordable, Waksman noted. Affordability is a major consideration within Janus. How much the military is willing to pay for resiliency is a hard question, Waksman admits. He offered that the Army doesn’t think nuclear power cost needs to be equivalent with fossil fuels, but just reasonably close. He cites the roughly 40 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh) that consumers pay in Hawaii and Alaska, rather than the 10 to 12 cents per kWh paid in the continental U.S. to illustrate the point. At the 40 cents per kWh level, the Army expects there will be a significant commercial market over and above military nuclear power generation demand.  

Hawaii and Alaska also illustrate the kind of environments, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, where there is current energy scarcity. Such scarcity makes moving a missile defense system, directed energy systems, large radars, or artificial intelligence data centers to an island or a remote Arctic site problematic. 

The strain on available local energy infrastructure imparted by these kinds of systems means they are often limited by ad hoc diesel power generation or other arrangements, Waksman explained. Installing advanced microreactors could potentially transform such locales from energy-scarce environments to a state of energy abundance, which could support defense and other infrastructure. This could be critical to U.S. success in the Pacific. 

There may be political challenges to placing microreactors on Pacific islands, other foreign territories, or even within the United States, Waksman acknowledged. But he opined that many places don’t necessarily oppose nuclear power. They oppose not being consulted about it. He says there will be pre-engagement discussion with any proposed local community. If they object, the Army won’t go there. 

“We’re not here to impose nuclear power on any local communities,” he added. Foreign placements would fall under Status of Forces Agreements. Waksman points to the fact that the Navy has successfully concluded these throughout the Pacific, “so it can be done”. 

Critical installations, especially those where energy supplies are more scarce and vulnerable, are eyed as especially well-suited for microreactors. Pearl Harbor, seen above, could be one such facility

Janus could also bring second and third-order benefits with it. Introducing advanced microreactors to military installations could kick-start the U.S. commercial nuclear power market and attract new blood to replenish the current critical shortage of nuclear engineers in America, Waksman said. 

The model being used for the Janus competition, he explained, is the NASA COTS (Commercial Orbital Transportation System) model, which was the catalyst for the creation of SpaceX. Elon Musk’s company made space engineering cool again, inspiring students to go into the rocketry/space field, Waksman says.  

“There’s a feeling [that] nuclear needs a SpaceX. There are innovative, exciting startups, so we’re hoping to cultivate them in the same way that NASA cultivated SpaceX and make nuclear sexy again and encourage more top young engineering talent to go into the field.”

Trump’s Executive Order has put the Army on a tight timeline to make Janus a reality. 

“We will do everything in our power to successfully meet the Executive Order,” Waksman affirmed. 

Brandon Cockrell, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Energy and Sustainability, also attended the roundtable and concluded the meeting by asserting that there is already significant competition among states and municipalities to get advanced microreactors at local bases.

“There are some states across the U.S. that are already leaning forward heavily with tax deferments and resources… This is a whole concerted effort to get the nuclear industry to the next phase in the nation.”  

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 11:45

Business "Very Slow, No Uptick In Sight": Dallas Fed Respondents Turn Even More Apocalyptic-er

As we detailed in late September, President Trump's plans to bring down oil prices was hammering sentiment in the Dallas Fed region (among manufacturers) with apocalyptic comments from respondents...

"I may have to close the company. Orders have stopped coming in, and we do not know why. "

And while today we see October's raw headline sentiment (General Business Activity) number improve very marginally (from -8.7 to -5.0 - still negative), under the hood it was not pretty with production flat, capacity utilization down notable, new orders still shrinking, shipments down, and hours worked and capex tumbling.

Worse still, forward-looking expectations are a shitshow...

The one silver lining in the report was the both input and output prices are falling...

However, it's the comments from respondents that most noteworthy in that they just got more apocalyptic.

Suffice it to say that the locals are hardly delighted with either tariffs, high interest rates, falling demand or general economic malaise, which is to be expected from a regional Fed that is largely dependent on the US energy industry (read Texas shale) which in turn has been crippled by Trump's demands to keep oil prices as low as possible if not lower, and has hammered the US oil E&P industry. 

Beverage and tobacco product manufacturing

Overall uncertainty about the strength of the economy is our largest concern. We believe the risk of a recession has increased, although it is hard to quantify. Lower economic opportunities, especially for younger people, is putting downward pressure on our future sales.

Computer and electronic product manufacturing

We are considering closing our company at the end of the year and filing for bankruptcy. We have had a huge drop in sales, and I think it's due to the loss of government funding. I don't think I can recover the company from it.

Fabricated metal product manufacturing

Our sales outlook is slightly down for 2026.

Customers are delaying projects to 2026, and requests for quotes have decreased.

Our customers want to buy, but they lack cash on hand. Multiple competitor closures are funneling demand, but our customers lack liquidity to fund required deposits and interim payments.

Furniture and related product manufacturing

There’s a slowdown of commercial construction bid requests.

Machinery manufacturing

Sales have been strong and steady over the past few months. We hope this trend continues.

The free market is prevailing despite the central planners' well-intentioned but misguided tariff policies.

Up and down, back and forth. We are thankful for the work, but the waves continue.

We expect some gain as well as some loss going forward in 2026 and through the remainder of the current year. We do believe the good will outweigh the bad overall. The DFW area continues to thrive, Texas remains a good place to do business, and the U.S. remains favorable for business as opposed to many world markets. We're thankful we are where we are─geographically and economically.

Miscellaneous manufacturing

Tariffs. We manufacture in the U.S., but input materials come from China. We don't have $600 million to get relief from tariffs like some companies do.

Paper manufacturing

Business is steady at very slow; no uptick in sight at this time.

Primary metal manufacturing

We suspect other countries, including Mexico, Vietnam and Cambodia are cheating and not paying full Section 232 tariffs on aluminum-extruded products coming into the U.S.  This has been reported to the Commerce Department. They are producing two invoices, one for the raw aluminum and another for the other portions of their prices resulting in not paying the full Section 232. If this is allowed to continue our industry will lose jobs and shutter equipment. Most of the foreign countries are subsidizing exports to the U.S. to the detriment of our industry.

Printing and related support activities

We have gotten very slow and we worry about the general state of our industry. We have a few large jobs that are keeping people busy in the plant, but soon if things don't change there will need to be some significant reduction in hours worked on the plant floor. There is just not much going on right now, and we believe it’s all tied to the chaos and uncertainty coming from Washington. We are hearing about significant price increases on materials coming soon due to the effect of tariffs.

Tariff costs (a tax) are having an impact of slowing down economic activity in all sectors. It’s all to do with economic uncertainty.

Textile product mills

We are very unsure of how the holiday season will play out. Input prices continue to increase as duties and tariffs take effect and remain in place. We are unsure of demand, and we will also need to increase our prices due to rising costs.

Transportation equipment manufacturing

The interest rate reduction is positive. There’s a need to improve the government shutdown and trade turmoil, and the outlook would be very promising.

Continued volatility with import tariffs and interest rates continue to stifle the trucking market. Trucking companies continue to struggle, and there is a regular cadence of bankruptcies being reported.

Business is up, yet we are also affected by the government shutdown in our ability to work with regulators to approve next steps.

Source: Dallas Fed

So, with President Trump doing everything in his powers to bring down the price of oil (and therefore gas), it appears the locals can't take it anymore.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 11:30

Questions Surface After Zohran Mamdani Paints Muslims As Real Victims Of 9/11

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani brought himself to tears on Friday while talking about how Muslims supposedly suffered after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. 

Mamdani raised the issue at a press conference meant to rebut attacks from opponents Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa over his past comments about global jihad and his faith.  

He invoked his late aunt, who he said felt targeted after 9/11, and recounted his own childhood experiences following the attacks to make his point. 

“I want to use this moment to speak to the Muslims of New York City,” Mamdani said, through tears.

“I want to speak to the memory of my aunt who stopped taking the subway after September 11th because she did not feel safe in her hijab.” 

He then brought up his childhood, claiming that “growing up in the shadow of 9/11, I have known what it means to live with an undercurrent of suspicion in the city.” 

Mamdani continued: “I will always remember the disdain that I faced. The way that my name could immediately become ‘Mohammed’ and how I could return to my city only to be asked in a double-mirrored room in the airport, if I had any plan of attacking it.”

In the speech, he made no mention of the nearly 3,000 people who died on 9/11.

Zohran through tears: “My aunt stopped taking the subway after 9/11 because she did not feel safe in her hijab.”

Yes, she was the real victim of 9/11
pic.twitter.com/aILr4JtVvF

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) October 24, 2025

Mamdani’s comments come on the heels of his opponents warning about his radicalism in the race for New York City mayor. 

For instance, the self-described democratic socialist has refused to condemn calls to “globalize the intifada,” a slogan historically used to urge violence against Jewish communities. 

[ZH: Finally, Senator Ted Cruz has some questions...]

Um, wut? https://t.co/v75hQG2Iz1

— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) October 27, 2025

[ZH: So does Elon Musk...]

Zohran is the future of the Democratic Party https://t.co/qwkBimPBby

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 27, 2025

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 11:15

Qualcomm Debuts AI Data-Center Chips, Stock Rockets 20% In Biggest Surge Since 2019

Qualcomm shares jumped the most in years on Monday morning in New York following the major unveiling of next-generation data center chips aimed at challenging Nvidia's control of the AI data center chip market.

Qualcomm introduced two new chips, the AI200 (launching in 2026) and the AI250 (launching in 2027), both designed to scale into full, liquid-cooled server rack systems. This move marks its expansion beyond traditional mobile and wireless chip business and into high-performance data center AI.

Details on the new chips:

• AI200 is designed for efficient large-scale inference for large language models and multimodal models. It features 768 GB of LPDDR memory per accelerator card, supporting high memory capacity at a lower cost.

• AI250 builds on that foundation with a new near-memory computing architecture that delivers more than 10 times the effective memory bandwidth while using significantly less power. This enables disaggregated inference, letting data centers allocate compute more flexibly while maintaining performance efficiency.

Both chips are supported by Qualcomm's hyperscaler-grade software stack, offering easy deployment (including Hugging Face integration), compatibility with leading AI frameworks, and tools for secure, scalable generative AI.

Qualcomm's shift into the data center chip market is mostly because management is following the money: AI data center spending is projected to reach about $6.7 trillion by 2030, and Nvidia currently controls more than 90% of today's AI accelerator market. Meanwhile, OpenAI and major cloud providers such as Google, Amazon, and Microsoft have been searching for new alternatives to Nvidia by developing or sourcing competing chips.

"With Qualcomm AI200 and AI250, we're redefining what's possible for rack-scale AI inference," said Durga Malladi, SVP & GM of Technology Planning, Edge Solutions & Data Center at Qualcomm. "These new AI infrastructure solutions enable generative AI at unprecedented TCO while maintaining the flexibility and security modern data centers require."

Malladi added that Qualcomm's software ecosystem is designed for easy integration, management, and scaling of already trained AI models across businesses and cloud environments.

Qualcomm shares surged nearly 20%, the largest gain since April 16, 2019...

... and reached the highest level since April 2024. Meanwhile, Nvidia shares were also up 2%..

Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider recently told clients that peak data center build-out demand now appears likely to extend well into 2026 before gradually easing in 2027 (read here).

Follow the money.

Qualcomm also announced that Saudi Arabia's AI startup Humain will be the first customer, targeting 200 megawatts of compute capacity based on the new chips beginning next year.

Earlier, Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon spoke at the Fortune Global Forum in Riyadh, in which he said it's too early to identify clear winners in the AI race, comparing the current boom to the early days of the internet.

"It's hard right now to declare who the winners are," Amon told the audience. "The opportunity is probably bigger than people think, but it's going to become a competitive environment very soon."

"Who we expected to be the winners in the early days ... it changed. It happened at different places in different industries, but it was much bigger than people thought in 1990, and I feel it this way about AI," he said. "When you think about AI in the long term, it is going to be massive, and it's probably underestimated."

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 10:55

'Not Playing Games': Trump Responds To Putin Testing 'Invincible' Nuclear Cruise Missile

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday touted a successful test of his military's new "invincible" nuclear-capable cruise missile, which means a next step of actually deploying the doomsday weapon as part of Russia's strategic arsenal.

Putin oversaw the test in a video released by the Kremlin while dressed in military fatigues, which included him ordering his top general to start preparing the Burevestnik missile for integration into active forces. "We need to determine the possible uses and begin preparing the infrastructure for deploying these weapons to our armed forces," Putin sated.

President Donald Trump has reacted to the announcement in an early Monday statement, saying it is "not appropriate" amid ratcheting tensions between Moscow and Washington and as peace talks have stalled.

Trump described that Putin should focus on ending the war with Ukraine rather than testing missiles. He was pressed on the issue by reporters on Air Force One regarding the nuclear test.

"They know we have a nuclear submarine, the greatest in the world, right off their shores," Trump posited in response. "We don’t need to go 8,000 miles. Putin ought to end the war — a war that should’ve taken one week is now in its fourth year," he continued. "That's what he ought to do instead of testing missiles."

But he also noted of the US military, "We test missiles all the time." He said this to perhaps downplay the seriousness of the event in the exchange with reporters:

"They are not playing games with us. We are not playing games with them either. We test missiles all the time," he said.

While Russia first disclosed the test on Sunday, it actually took place on October 21 according to the Kremlin announcement.

Russia conducts test of new 'invincible' nuclear-capable cruise missile https://t.co/dcM93yJGBG pic.twitter.com/zuW95DETGk

— New York Post (@nypost) October 26, 2025

Citing Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, Russian media describes:

The missile completed a multi-hour flight that covered 14,000km, though he stressed that this is not the range limit for the Burevestnik.

“The technical characteristics of the Burevestnik missile make it capable of striking highly protected targets at any distance with guaranteed accuracy,” Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov stated.

“During the test flight, the missile successfully performed all designated vertical and horizontal maneuvers, demonstrating its strong ability to evade anti-missile and air defense systems.”

Below: audio of the Trump exchange with reporters...

Reporter asks Trump about Russia testing a missile with 8,000-mile range.

Trump:

They know we have a nuclear submarine, the greatest in the world, right off their shores. We don’t need to go 8,000 miles.

Putin ought to end the war — a war that should’ve taken one week is now… pic.twitter.com/Yp14K4i1f8

— Clash Report (@clashreport) October 27, 2025

Gen. Gerasimov additionally described that no other nation in the world has such a 'unique' weapon which is practically invincible. "It is undetectable by conventional radar and can only be tracked by specialized spacecraft during the launch and acceleration phases," Russian media has additionally claimed.

The Burevestnik project was first publicly disclosed during initial development by President Putin in 2018, when he said that a one-of-a-kind weapon with unlimited range and extreme maneuverability was being worked on.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 10:45

Melissa Set To Become Jamaica's First-Ever Cat. 5 Landfall In Records Going Back To 1850

Hurricane Melissa explosively intensified into a catastrophic Category 5 storm, and the latest spaghetti models indicate a direct hit on Jamaica.

As of early Monday, Melissa was churning about 130 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, according to the latest update from the U.S. National Hurricane Center. Winds are registering at the highest on the Saffir-Simpson scale with sustained winds exceeding 157 mph. 

NHC records dating back to 1850 show that Jamaica has never recorded a direct landfall from a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. However, four Category 3 storms have made direct landfall: in 1903, 1912, 1951, and 1988.

"Although interaction with Jamaica will lead to some weakening, Melissa is expected to reach southeastern Cuba as a major hurricane, and will also move across the southeastern Bahamas and be near Bermuda as a hurricane," NHC wrote in the latest update. 

Various computer model predictions agree that Melissa's track will curve out into the Atlantic Ocean after making landfall across several Caribbean island nations. 

Hurricane season in the Atlantic ends on November 30. 

It has been a relatively quiet year for the continental U.S. What happened to the climate change cult's impending global doom?

Related:

• Where Are All The Hurricanes?

Just wait ... their propaganda news cycle will restart when Democrats need to pass climate bills to rip off American taxpayers.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 09:45

Trump: "Bad Fuel" Suspected in Two U.S. Military Aircraft Crashes In South China Sea

Earlier, President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One while en route to Japan, part of his Asia tour ahead of trade talks with China later this week, that he does not suspect foul play in the crash of two separate U.S. military aircraft in the South China Sea on Sunday.

A Sikorsky SH-60 Seahawk helicopter and a Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighter jet crashed about 30 minutes apart on Sunday while operating from the carrier USS Nimitz in the South China Sea. All personnel survived.

Trump told reporters, "They think it might be bad fuel."

Meanwhile the Global Times' @HuXijin_GT account couldn't help themselves.

Two planes crashed into the sea in 30 minutes. With such combat readiness, can the US aircraft carrier engage in high-intensity confrontation with the Chinese PLA in the South China Sea? To be honest, I highly doubt it.

— Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) October 27, 2025

The incidents occurred as the carrier strike group was nearing the end of its deployment. China criticized the U.S. presence in the region as trade talks between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set for Thursday.

Ahead of the trade talks, Trump signed a series of trade deals with Southeast Asian countries on Sunday, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed a "successful framework" after his meeting with top Chinese trade officials. All indications so far suggest the Trump-Xi meeting may produce a deal.

Odds on the cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket show a 51% chance that the U.S. and China will agree on a trade deal this month.

Back to the Seahawk and Super Hornet crashes: at least there is no indication of anything suspicious, especially at a moment when a US-China trade deal appears to be within reach.

*  *  *

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 09:00

IMF Outlook: Not Great

Authored by Jake Scott via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The IMF’s October 2025 update to its World Economic Outlook delivers a modest upward revision, but lurking behind this seemingly optimistic shift are deeper currents shifting global growth and capital flows.

Custom image by FEE

The Fund, originally forecasting in July that global growth would sit at 3 percent in 2025, now projects 3.2 percent for 2025, and 3.1 percent in 2026. A small upgrade on the face of it, yet it is worth remembering that the global economy exceeds $100 trillion, meaning even a fraction of a percent represents significant value.

More importantly, the slight upgrade in percentage reflects two contrasting forces: the flip side of higher trade tensions under President Trump’s tariff policy, and a (perhaps temporary) surge in private-sector investment around artificial intelligence.

The U.S. tariff escalation, promised by Donald Trump in the 2024 election campaign and delivered since, has been more muted than many feared. The IMF notes that stronger-than-expected supply-chain resilience, rerouted trade flows, and the absence of widespread retaliation have cushioned the blow. Though adjustments to global trade flows have been blunted by the tariffs, in many ways this has left the United States playing catch-up rather than leading global economic changes.

In particular, the Fund emphasizes that resisting retaliatory tariffs provided an upside of roughly 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to global output compared with earlier forecasts. Meanwhile, AI-related investment is acting as a near-term growth driver—especially in the U.S.—though the Fund warns this may be a speculative boom more than a long-term productivity surge. As FEE has pointed out elsewhere, the resource-intensive AI industry ballooning now might burst before it achieves maturity.

Yet, even with the improved forecast, the IMF stresses that the world economy remains on a lower-growth path than in prior decades. The muted impact of tariffs so far carries two lessons: businesses are adapting more swiftly by front-loading imports and shifting sourcing; and the costs of protectionism may arrive with a lag.

The IMF cautions that the full effect “has yet to materialise.” Inflation pressures remain uneven. It also warns of “rising odds of disorderly correction” in financial markets, given stretched valuations, elevated debt, and the links between regulated and non-bank financial institutions.

Beyond these cyclical risks, the deeper story is geographical. As North American and European growth stagnates, emerging economies (particularly across Southeast Asia) are becoming increasingly attractive to investors seeking higher returns and lower tariff exposure. The fact that $100 billion has been invested in the region is testament to this. India, for example, is projected to expand by 6.6 percent in 2025, making it one of the few major economies with consistent momentum despite global headwinds.

The current IMF scenario reinforces that trend. With tariffs proving less disruptive than anticipated, companies and investors are accelerating their pivot from the old Western axis toward the new Asian one.

Multinationals are shifting procurement and manufacturing hubs toward ASEAN economies such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia, where supply-chain risk and tariff exposure are relatively lower. Investors, meanwhile, are seeking equity and infrastructure opportunities that capture regional growth and demographic advantages. As growth expectations cool in the U.S. and Europe, Asia’s relative resilience stands out.

The AI investment boom, too, is increasingly transnational. South-East Asian economies are positioning themselves as regional nodes within the AI ecosystem, offering a combination of talent, low-cost infrastructure, and pro-innovation policy.

This means that as Europe and North America grapple with tariffs, inflation, and slower expansion, Asia absorbs a growing share of the upside. The result is not simply cyclical strength but a gradual structural shift in the geography of growth—one that recasts Southeast Asia from peripheral to pivotal in global capital markets.

The IMF’s numbers hardly suggest a world economy in full recovery. Yet the very fact that forecasts have been revised up, rather than down, reveals a more adaptive global system. Trade is diversifying, technology is investing in itself, and capital is finding new routes around old bottlenecks. As the IMF’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva remarked, the world has “shown more resilience than expected.” The center of gravity is shifting, and Southeast Asia continues to emerge as the clearest beneficiary of that global rebalancing.

From the Foundation for Economic Education (FEE)

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 08:45

Futures Soar To New Record High On US-China Deal Optimism

US equity futures are higher after progress was made by US and Chinese trade negotiators, with a framework in place ahead to provide a basis for the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting on Thursday. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures rise 0.9% to a new all time high, having closed last week at a record, with Nasdaq and Russell outperforming as the framework deal is boosting Semis / Mag7 while rare earth plays are under pressure. AMD, AVGO, and NVDA are +2% with all Mag7 higher. Cyclicals are outpacing Defensives with parts of Staples in the red. Bond yields are up 2bp across the curve, pushing the 10Y to 4.02%. The dollar weakened against all major peers except the Swiss franc. Commodities are mixed as both energy and precious metals slide, though base metals are higher and Ags are mostly higher. Copper, a bellwether for global growth, neared an all-time high. Earnings and the Fed are the focus this week with ~44% of SPX market cap reporting this week and the Fed likely to cut by 25bps and potentially to halt QT. 

In premarket trading, Magnificent 7 stocks are all higher (Nvidia +2.4%, Amazon +1.8%, Alphabet +2%, Tesla +1.3%, Meta +1.3%, Microsoft +1.2%, Apple +0.8%)

• US stocks with significant exposure to Argentina are rallying after President Javier Milei posted a strong showing in legislative elections, soothing worries that his economic plans would stall.
• US-listed rare earth stocks fell after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that he believed China would delay its rare earth curbs for a year. Rare earth export restrictions were expected to impact supply.
• Avidity Biosciences (RNA) soars 43% after Novartis agreed to buy the biotechnology company in a deal valued at $12 billion. Shares in peer Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) jump 36%.
• BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) climbs 10% after reporting positive topline results from its Phase 3 pivotal study of BBP-418 in individuals living with limb-girdle muscular dystrophy type 2I/R9.
• Cadence Bank (CADE) rises 2% after agreeing to be bought by Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN) in an all-stock transaction that values Cadence at $7.4 billion. Shares of Huntington are down 4%.
• Essential Utilities Inc. (WTRG) climbs 1.9% after American Water Works Co. agreed to buy the company in an all-stock deal valued at about $12 billion
• GameStop (GME) rises 7% after the White House’s Rapid Response 47 account reposted a statement from the company on X that declared the so-called “console wars” over.
• Grindr (GRND) is up 2% and set to extend Friday’s 19% rally after the dating app confirmed the special committee of its board received a non-binding, unsolicited take-private proposal from large shareholders Ray Zage and James Lu for $18 per share in cash.
• Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) gains 6% after raising its full-year net sales outlook, as focus turns to its acquisition of JDE Peet’s NV.
• Zenas Biopharma (ZBIO) soars 56% after the drug developer said a mid-stage trial of its investigative therapy for multiple sclerosis met its primary endpoint.

In corporate news, Novartis agreed to buy Avidity Biosciences in a $12 billion deal. Boeing factory workers in St. Louis narrowly rejected a new five-year contract that would boost wages by an average of 24%, extending a nearly three-month strike. Newmont is set to extend Friday’s losses after the company is said to be is studying a potential deal to gain control of Canadian rival Barrick Mining’s prized Nevada gold assets.

S&P 500 futures traded in fresh record territory after US and Chinese negotiators said they’d reached agreements on issues spanning tariffs, shipping fees, fentanyl and export controls ahead of a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping later this week. Bloomberg Economics’ Chief Asia Economist Chang Shu expects leaders to approve the deal, but whether it will bring lasting relief to markets is less clear — “the new reality for US-China ties appears to be one of frequent ruptures and short-term fixes.” 

“The shift of attention to the negotiations with China is causing the markets to open higher, but only a positive outcome will be sustainable,” said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at asset manager MPPM. “This week could be crucial for the course of the rest of the year, with the greatest focus on the Federal Reserve’s wording regarding monetary policy.”

Easing trade tensions between the world’s largest economies are giving investors fresh confidence to extend equities’ rally from April lows, when markets slumped as Trump moved to rewrite global trade rules. That advance faces key tests this week, with the Fed expected to cut interest rates and earnings from AI-heavyweights set to offer clues on profit durability.

“This looks like a win on optics for both sides — the US tempers inflation and supply-chain risks tied to rare earths and electronics, while China avoids sweeping tariffs and keeps its export channels open,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore. “But until the leaders’ summit signs off, it’s a truce extension, not a breakthrough.”

Elsewhere, Trump announced an additional 10% in tariffs on Canada in response to an advertisement by the province of Ontario that’s critical of the levies. Trump also hailed a “big win” for Javier Milei after his party’s comeback victory in Argentina’s midterm elections, which came after a series of unorthodox steps by the US aimed at stabilizing Argentine assets.

“Fears around the Trump–Xi summit are dissipating, with the tone turning more conciliatory and Bessent suggesting a 100% tariff scenario is practically off the table,” said Susana Cruz, strategist at Panmure Liberum. “Cyclical sectors are likely to benefit the most.”

Besides key trade events, we also have a huge week of tech earnings on deck, including results from Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Amazon.com and Apple. Investors will be seeking color on AI spending plans — and when companies will see returns on their huge investments. Out of the 145 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 84% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 14% have missed. 

Also on the radar is a slew of central bank policy meetings this week. The Fed is widely expected to deliver a second straight rate cut — though eyes will be on deepening divisions between policymakers. Meanwhile, Trump said he expects to make a decision on the next Fed Chair by the end of the year as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the names of five finalists to succeed Powell.

Equity analysts are expected to broaden their earnings revisions to more stocks toward the end of the year and into 2026, according to Morgan Stanley. The third-quarter earnings season has proved stronger than expected so far and could deliver results beyond what analysts expected prior to the tariff turmoil in April, Deutsche Bank strategists said. If beats continue at current rates, y/y earnings growth for the S&P 500 is on track to pick up to 13.2% in 3Q from 9.3% in 2Q, they said.

The US market euphoria hasn’t quite translated for European stocks, with the Stoxx 600 only rising 0.1% on a drag from France and the UK, and a slide in Switzerland. Denmark’s Sydbank surges on a surprise tie-up with two local rivals, and Porsche rises after it reported earnings on Friday after market close. Goodwin shares jump after it said it expects annual trading profit before tax to double. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Sydbank gains as much as 7.4%, the most since June, after the Danish lender announced it would buy and merge two of its rivals, Arbejdernes Landsbank and Vestjysk Bank
• Porsche shares rise as much as 4.4% to their highest intraday level since May after posting its latest earnings after market close on Friday. Analysts said the release was consistent with the September profit warning
• Goodwin shares jumped as much as 33%, climbing to a record high, after the engineering company said it expects annual trading profit before tax to double from the prior year and announced a special interim dividend
• Beijer Alma gains as much as 5.3%, extending Friday’s 8.5% earnings-triggered gains, after Handelsbanken upgraded its view on the Swedish industrial components group to buy, saying the company is making “significant” progress
• Galp Energia shares rise as much as 3%, hitting a nine-month high, after the oil and gas firm reported adjusted net income that blew past estimates. Management said the company is well positioned to surpass its current guidance
• Sika falls as much as 1.9% after Bank of America resumed coverage of the chemicals group with an underperform rating after the company’s disappointing 3Q earnings on Friday. Meanwhile, Oddo BHF downgraded its view to neutral

Earlier in the session, Asian stock benchmarks climbed to a fresh record after the US and China came to terms on a range of contentious points, setting the table for a finalized trade deal. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.5%, with TSMC and Tencent among the biggest boosts. South Korea’s Kospi jumped more than 2.5% to a new all-time high, helped by chipmaker shares, while Japan’s Topix reached record levels amid strong public support for newly appointed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and mainland China rose about 1% each, as trade tensions between the world’s largest economies that rattled investors appeared set to ease. Trade egotiators announced Sunday that they’d struck agreements on issues from tariffs to shipping fees, fentanyl and export controls, ahead of Thursday’s planned meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Thailand’s main equity gauge rose nearly 1.5% after the nation reached an agreement with Cambodia to manage a border dispute. Stocks declined in Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

In FX, Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.1%, with Aussie dollar outperforming on a combination of trade optimism and hawkish comments from RBA Governor Bullock.

In rates, treasury futures hold small losses after gapping lower at the Asian open as prospect of a US-China trade agreement stokes risk appetite, lifting stock futures. Rates market also faces pressure from two- and five-year note auctions slated for Monday, an accelerated schedule enabling supply cycle to conclude before Fed rate decision Wednesday. US yields are 2bp-3bp cheaper across the curve with 10-year around 4.03%, lagging bunds and gilts in the sector by about 1bp and 2bp respectively; curve spreads are little changed. German business confidence hit the highest since 2022, while French markets are digesting Moody’s turning negative on its debt. Monday’s auctions include $69 billion 2-year at 11:30am and $70 billion 5-year at 1pm; cycle ends Tuesday with $44 billion 7-year sale. WI 2-year yield near 3.50% is ~7bp richer than last month’s, which stopped through by 0.1bp; WI 5-year near 3.64% is also ~7bp richer than previous

In commodities, oil reverses an earlier rise and Brent slides well below $66/barrel. Copper rising but short of a record high. Gold falling, down by $73 to $4,040/oz.

The US economic calendar calendar includes October Dallas Fed manufacturing activity at 10:30am; September durable goods orders slated for 8:30am face postponement due to government shutdown.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.8%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +1.1%
• Russell 2000 mini +1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX little changed
• CAC 40 -0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.02%
• VIX -0.6 points at 15.74
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1211.98
• euro little changed at $1.1634
• WTI crude -1% at $60.91/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Chinese and US trade negotiators struck a slew of agreements on issues spanning tariffs and shipping fees to fentanyl and export controls. Donald Trump said he’ll have a great talk with Xi Jinping later this week as his visit to Asia continued. BBG
• Argentine President Milei’s libertarian party has won a big victory in midterm legislative elections, giving his free-market reform drive fresh impetus after a financial market crisis threatened to derail it. Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party garnered 40.7% against 31.7% for the Peronist opposition alliance with 98% of the vote counted. FT
• President Donald Trump said a decision on the next Federal Reserve chair might be made by the end of the year. The pool of candidates has been narrowed to five, including Trump's aide Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder. RTRS
• American employers are increasingly making the calculation that they can keep the size of their teams flat—or shrink through layoffs—without harming their businesses. Part of that thinking is the belief that artificial intelligence will be used to pick up some of the slack and automate more processes. WSJ
• Mark Carney said Canada is ready to resume talks, but Trump ruled out meeting him for a while. Brazil’s Lula da Silva said he had a “surprisingly good” meeting with the US president, and predicted a “definitive solution” within days. BBG
• Apartment rents nationally are advancing at their slowest pace in years, thanks to the glut of new units that has taken longer than expected to absorb. More recently, job concerns among young people are posing a new threat to the rental market. The U.S. unemployment rate for people aged 20 to 24 was 9.2% in August, more than double the overall rate. WSJ
• China’s industrial profits rose sharply in September, extending momentum from a stronger-than-expected increase in August. Industrial profits rose 21.6% from a year earlier in September, following a 20.4% rise in August that ended a three-month run of declines. WSJ
• South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung warned its property market is a bubble that’s about to burst as he backed the central bank decision to hold rates.BBG
• French lawmakers didn’t vote on a Socialist proposal for a wealth tax Saturday, delaying a possible compromise in a budget debate. French assets wavered after Moody’s cut the country’s credit outlook to negative. BBG
• After 2 straight weeks of selling, HFs reversed course and net bought US equities this week, driven by short covers in Macro Products and to a lesser extent long buys in Single Stocks – nearly all of the ETF shorts raised last week (+6.1%) were covered this week (-5.9%). GS PB
• Fed proposed changes to boost bank stress test transparency on Friday, with the Fed to disclose and solicit feedback on stress test models and scenarios for the first time under the new proposal. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman said the changes would improve bank capital planning, while Fed's Barr objected to the proposed changes and warned that it would weaken the test and lower bank capital.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said he expects a very fair meeting with Chinese President Xi and he is optimistic about a China deal, while he said he will do some good business with Chinese President Xi and that he has a lot to talk about with Xi.
• US President Trump said they might sign a final deal on TikTok on Thursday; received provision approval from Chinese President Xi.
• Bessent said overall inflation has come down since President Trump took office and he is confident that inflation will fall further towards the Fed’s 2% target, while Bessent also said that the government shutdown is starting to eat into the muscle of the US economy.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said China is ready to make a trade deal and that they have a framework for Trump-Xi talks, while he added that US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will make the final decisions. Bessent separately commented that the tariffs increase on China was averted and that China agreed to delay a new rare earths export licensing regime for a year. Bessent also stated that he expects the Chinese to be making substantial purchases of US soybeans again soon and that US soybean farmers will feel good about coming soybean seasons for several years when the Trump-Xi trade deal is announced, as well as noted that the details of the TikTok deal are ironed out with Trump and Xi able to consummate that transaction in South Korea on Thursday.
• Transportation Secretary Duffy warned that travellers will face more flight delays and cancellations in the coming weeks amid the continuing shutdown: Bloomberg.
• China’s top trade negotiator Li said they reached a consensus with the US and talked about tariffs and export controls, while he added they will enhance communication with the US and talked about 301 port fees, trade expansion and fentanyl.
• Chinese Vice Premier He said they should jointly implement the consensus reached with the US, while he added that China and the US should find ways to properly address each other’s concerns through equal dialogue and consultation.
• USTR said on Friday that they initiated a trade investigation of China's implementation of the Phase One agreement with the US. It was also reported that China’s embassy to the US said regarding the USTR investigation that China opposes false accusations related to investigation measures and that US actions have done serious damage to US-China ties as well as economic and trade relations, while it urged the US to promptly correct wrong practices.
• Chinese Premier Li met with European Council President Costa and said China is willing to work with the EU to keep bilateral relations on the right track, according to Xinhua. It was separately reported that Costa said he shared a strong concern with Li about expanding export controls on critical raw materials, and urged Li to restore as soon as possible fluid, reliable and predictable supply chains. Furthermore, he expressed expectations that China helps to put an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine and stressed the need to make concrete progress as a follow-up to the EU-China summit.
• US President Trump says they will come away with a deal with China.
• US President Trump announced the US is to immediately raise tariffs on Canada by another 10% because of the fraudulent ad misrepresenting Ronald Reagan’s view on tariffs. Trump said Canada has been ripping the US off for a long time, and they're not going to do it anymore.
• Canadian PM Carney says that Canada is ready to sit down with the US, hasn't had contact with US President Trump since Thursday.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher amid trade-related optimism after the US and China reached a framework for Trump-Xi talks this week, with the US tariff increase on China averted, while China was said to have agreed to delay a new rare earth exports licensing regime for a year. ASX 200 gained as strength in tech, financials and industrials led the upside seen in most sectors, while defensives lagged. Nikkei 225 rallied to above the 50k level for the first time ahead of US President Trump's visit to Japan, where the sides are expected to ink a tech-cooperation MOU covering areas, including bio, quantum, nuclear fusion energy and space. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp benefitted amid hopes of improving US-China ties, with the sides said to reach a consensus ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting on Thursday, while Industrial Profits data from China showed the fastest growth in two years.

Top Asian News

• PBoC Governor says they will resume government bond purchases and selling in the open market; will continue to maintain supportive monetary policy stance; to implement properly loose monetary policy.
• Almost two dozen world leaders are visiting the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur for the 47th ASEAN summit, which takes place from Sunday to Tuesday.
• US President Trump posted "Just leaving Malaysia, a great and very vibrant Country. Signed major Trade and Rare Earth Deals, and yesterday, most importantly, signed the Peace Treaty between Thailand and Cambodia. NO WAR! Millions of lives saved. Such an honor to have gotten this done. Now, off to Japan!!!"
• RBA's Bullock says that reducing inflation while maintaining employment levels is very satisfying; unemployment rate could come down once again in the next month. Board is cautious about policy, with rates still a bit restrictive. US tariffs could potentially be deflationary for Australia. Labour supply growth is not as fast as it was but will not fall off a cliff. Prepared to adjust policy if proven wrong on the labour market.

European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) opened firmer across the board, with sentiment boosted by the constructive US-China trade talks over the weekend, whereby the two countries reached a framework for Trump-Xi talks. However, some indices did pare off best levels as the morning progressed, albeit still remain mostly firmer in Europe. European sectors opened with a strong positive bias, but are now mixed. Basic Resources leads, followed closely by Tech; the pair boosted by the aforementioned trade optimism. To the bottom of the pile resides Chemicals and Consumer Products.

Top European News

• French lawmakers refrained from voting on a Socialist proposal for a wealth tax on Saturday, delaying a possible compromise in a budget debate which risks collapsing the fragile minority government, according to Bloomberg.
• ECB’s Escriva said the ECB is communicating in its statements after each meeting that inflation is truly at the target of 2% and they think it is a good time to look ahead and consider the current level of interest rates appropriate.
• Moody’s maintained France’s rating at Aa3, but revised the outlook to negative from stable.
• EU nations could be called upon to raise 10s of billions of Euros worth of joint debt as part of a backup plan to support Ukraine, via Politico citing sources.
• ECB Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises: Inflation expectations remained unchanged across horizons. Firms continue to report upside risks to their long-term inflation outlook, broadly unchanged compared with the previous round. Firms reported a small net tightening in bank loan interest rates as well as in other loan conditions related to both price and non-price factors. Financing needs, bank loan availability and the financing gap were broadly unchanged.

FX

• DXY is flat and trades in a 98.77 to 98.99 range. Ultimately, very little action despite the US reaching a consensus with China ahead of Trump-Xi talks on Thursday and inking several trade agreements with South East Asian partners during President Trump's visit to the region including a rare earths deal with Malaysia, while Trump now heads to Japan where he is set to meet the Emperor later today before meeting PM Takaichi on Tuesday. Dollar traders may ultimately be focusing on the looming key risk events this week, which includes; the Fed, BoC, BoJ and ECB policy announcements, and then the Trump-Xi meeting on Thursday. On the theme of trade, the US raised tariffs on Canada by another 10% following the recent ad-saga; USD/CAD currently a little higher today, trading at the upper end of a 1.3974 to 1.4010 range.
• EUR is essentially flat/slightly firmer vs USD. The Single-currency was little moved on the latest German Ifo data which was ultimately mixed; Business Climate rose a touch above expectations, Current Conditions was a little short of the consensus, whilst Expectations surpassed the top-end of the forecast range. The Ifo head said, "Expectations are increasing in all sectors", and the German economy has not yet lost hope for a recovery. Elsewhere, the latest ECB SAFE release highlighted that inflation expectations remained unchanged across horizons. Overnight, ECB's Escriva suggested that current interest rates are appropriate. Elsewhere, late on Friday, Moody’s maintained France’s rating at Aa3, but revised the outlook to negative from stable. The agency cited heightened risks associated with political fragmentation which could limit France's ability to reduce its deficit. EUR/USD currently sits in a 1.1618-1.1647 range.
• JPY is slightly firmer vs the Dollar and trades within a 152.66 to 153.25 confine. Overnight, USD/JPY hovered around 153.00. Initial price action saw some pressure in the JPY, given the risk tone, though this was offset by firmer-than-expected Services PPI data from Japan. Yen traders will be mindful of Trump's meeting with the Japanese Emperor later today, and then more pertinently his meeting with PM Takaichi. On that, reports in recent weeks have suggested the Japanese PM is willing to purchase US pickups, soybeans and gas but may avoid Trump's new defence spending targets. She has recently been on the wires, where she said she is looking forward to having a positive discussion with the POTUS.
• GBP is on a mildly firmer footing with the high-beta currency propped up by the overall risk appetite across the markets. Comments from UK Chancellor Reeves, speaking in Riyadh, had little effect on Sterling, with less than a month to go till the Autumn Budget. On trade, the Chancellor suggested taking US President Trump seriously was key in the UK-US trade deal, whilst the UK had really good meetings around a UK-GCC trade deal in Riyadh, and she's confident that she can get the deal over the line. GBP/USD trades within Friday's 1.3287-1.3364 range, in a current 1.3311-1.3339 parameter.
• Antipodeans outperform due to their high-beta statuses and China exposure amid the US-China trade optimism, while the PBoC also set the strongest USD/CNY reference rate setting in just over a year. AUD is propped up by a surge in base metals amid the aforementioned optimism, with RBA Governor Bullock saying little to move the Aussie this morning. AUD/USD in a 0.6528-0.6555 range, with the 100 DMA at 0.6536 and the 50 DMA at 0.6552. NZD/USD sees shallower gains amid the AUD/NZD cross' rise above 1.1350.
• Barclays' proprietary month-end rebalancing model indicates weak USD selling against all majors at the end of October. October saw heightened policy uncertainty and mixed markets, driven by the US government shutdown, limited data releases, and global political shifts, though sentiment improved late in the month as US-China tensions eased.

Fixed Income

• USTs are firmer today, with upside facilitated by the latest US-China trade optimism. In brief, the US and China have come to a framework for Thursday’s leader-level talks, a US tariff increase on China has been averted which, in-turn, resulted in a one year delay to China’s new rare earth licensing regime being agreed. Updates that sent USTs to a 113-04 base, taking out last week’s 113-09 trough. Since, as the risk tone eases marginally from best, the complex has lifted off lows taking USTs to a 113-09 high, but still very much in the red. For today, the docket is light and the discussed trade points are likely to remain in focus into/after a frontloaded supply slate on account of the Fed with USD 139bln due across 2yr and 5yr notes. Elsewhere, the PBoC has announced that they will be resuming bond activity in the open market. As a reminder, the PBoC suspended such activity at the start of 2025 after beginning it in 2024 as a policy tool for liquidity management purposes. A resumption that comes after growing speculation over the last few weeks that the PBoC could recommence such activity, potentially in Q4-2025.
• Bunds in the red throughout the early morning, down to a 129.26 trough with losses of 20 ticks at most, hit by the risk tone following the trade progress (see USTs) and also potentially weighed on by talk of joint issuance. Since, as the risk tone deteriorates from best, benchmarks generally have climbed off worst and for Bunds this has been sufficient to bring them to highs of 129.45 and near the unchanged mark. Even if the benchmark moves into the green, there is some way to go before the best levels from last week’s sessions are tested, between 130.02 and 130.38. On the joint issuance report, Politico writes that EU nations could be called upon to raise 10s of billions of Euros of joint debt to support Ukraine. A backup plan following the use of frozen Russian assets being blocked by Belgium due to legal concerns.
• Gilts opened lower by 22 ticks before falling a little further to a 92.15 low, acknowledging the pressure seen in peers given the trade tone. Since, the benchmark has lifted off that low and holds around the 93.30 mark, just off a 93.36 peak. If the move continues and Gilts manage to get into the green then resistance lies at 93.60, 93.80 and 93.93 from last week. For the UK, specifics a little light after last week’s packaged data agenda. As such, the benchmark is following the direction set out by USTs/EGBs thus far. Weekend press reports remain focussed on the approaching budget. The Times outlined that Chancellor Reeves is set to increase the National & Real Living Wages, adjustments that have unsurprisingly drawn critique from some.
• OATs are outperforming post-Moody's. On Friday, France narrowly avoided losing its final AA rating. Moody’s kept France at Aa3, but cut the outlook to negative (prev. stable). Commentary in the review was similar to the last assessment, but also highlighted the fresh concern around the postponement of pension reform until the next presidential cycle. Amidst all this, OATs trade a little better than their German peer, benefitting from Moody’s and an extra day of talks on wealth tax adjustments. As such, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread is a little narrower down to just below the 80bps mark after climbing incrementally over it last week.

Commodities

• Crude is currently lower after spending most of the overnight session on a firmer footing. Nothing really behind the recent dip in prices, but does come as market sentiment wanes a touch - perhaps as focus turns back to oversupply concerns. WTI and Brent trade in a USD 60.98-62.17/bbl and USD 65.37-66.64/bbl range. In geopols, US President Trump said he won’t meet with Russian President Putin until he thinks they have a peace plan.
• Spot gold is on the backfoot today, with haven assets generally shunned as traders focus on the latest trade optimism. On that, US and China agree on a framework of a trade deal ahead on the Trump-Xi meeting on Thursday. The US Trade Sec described it as a "positive framework". XAU has gradually dipped throughout the session, and currently resides at the lower end of a USD 4,039.11-4,109.08/oz range.
• Base metals are mixed, but with some clear strength in copper prices today, as traders cheer the latest US-China trade developments. 3M LME currently trading in a USD 11,005.75-11,096/t range.
• Iraqi oil minister says there are talks to adjust Iraq's quota within the available production capacity; says Iraq's current production capacity is 5.5mln BPD but they are committed to the OPEC quota of 4.4mln. BPD Crude oil exports from Kurdistan region at around 195k BPD. Total oil exports at 3.6mln BPD. Fire in Iraq's Zubair oilfield has not affected exports.
• At least 5 workers were seriously injured in an oil pipeline fire in Iraq’s Zubair oilfield, while the fire has not affected production from the oilfield, which stands at 400k bpd.
• US Energy Secretary Wright said the US is to double natural gas exports in the next five years, and could double it again in another five to ten years if demand is there.
• TotalEnergies (TTE FP) is ready to restart the USD 20bln Mozambique LNG project four years after it was halted due to a terrorist attack, according to FT.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel’s military said it conducted a targeted strike in central Gaza.
• US President Trump said on Saturday that Hamas must start returning the bodies of hostages and that they will be closely watching over the next 48 hours.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said the US team is working on a possible UN resolution or international agreement to authorise a multinational force in Gaza.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US President Trump said he won’t meet with Russian President Putin until he thinks they have a peace plan.
• Kremlin said Russian armed forces will respond harshly in the event of strikes deep inside of Russia. It also stated that it is wrong to talk about the cancellation of the Putin-Trump summit and there is an understanding between Russia and the US that it would not be good to delay the meeting, according to RIA.
• Russian President Putin said Russian forces conducted training live launches of all three components of the strategic nuclear forces drill, while the strategic nuclear forces drill confirmed the reliability of Russia’s nuclear shield.
• Russia’s General Staff of the Armed Forces head Gerasimov said Russian forces are advancing in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, while he also stated that a successful test of the Burevestnik missile with a nuclear power unit was conducted on October 21st, according to Interfax.
• Russian President Putin's special envoy Dmitriev said on Friday that Russia-US dialogue is vital for the world and must continue with full understanding of Russia's position and respect for its national interests. Dmitriev said dialogue between Russia and the US is continuing despite recent 'unfriendly steps' from Washington, and such dialogue is only possible if Russia's interests are treated with respect, while he added that various forces, mainly the UK and Europeans, are trying to derail direct dialogue between Putin and Trump.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky called for sanctions on all Russian oil companies, the shadow fleet and oil terminals on Friday.
• UK PM Starmer said on Friday that the coalition of the willing is determined to go further than ever to ratchet up pressure on Russian President Putin, while he stated the meeting was clear that work on using frozen Russian assets needs to come to fruition quickly.
• Russia's Kremlin says Russia is guided by its own national interest in relation to US President Trump's comment. On the Burevestnik missile test, the Kremlin adds that there is nothing there to strain relations with the US and are only ensuring Russia's national security and thereby are just developing new weapons. Russia must do everything to ensure its security amid the militarist mood in Europe.

Geopolitics: Other

• US President Trump responded that they will see, when asked about strikes in Venezuela. Trump also commented that he has a lot of respect for Taiwan, while he is not sure if he will meet with North Korean leader Kim during his Asia trip, but added that he likes Kim personally. It was separately reported that North Korea may possibly be preparing for a Trump-Kim meeting, although a South Korean presidential adviser said that they don't see a meeting between US President Trump and North Korea leader Kim likely to happen.
• US President Trump said he would like to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, if the North Korean leader would like to meet; would extend his trip if it was possible to meet with the North Korean leader
• North Korea’s Foreign Minister is to visit Russia on October 26th-28th.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said Taiwan should not be concerned about US-China talks, while he added the US is not going to walk away from Taiwan in return for trade benefits with China.
• Thailand and Cambodia signed a peace deal on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, according to Nikkei.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Sep P Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.2%
• 8:30 am: Sep P Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.2%
• 8:30 am: Sep P Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.3%
• 8:30 am: Sep P Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
• 10:30 am: Oct Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -7.8, prior -8.7

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Investors face a busy week ahead that includes rates decisions by four of the G7 central banks, with the Fed and BoC on Wednesday followed by the BoJ and ECB on Thursday. A packed earnings calendar will see reports from five of the Mag-7 (Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple and Amazon), together representing a quarter of the S&P 500 market cap. But ahead of all that, markets are in a buoyant mood this morning as US and China officials indicated that they have largely aligned a deal to ease trade tensions ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting this Thursday.

Starting with the US-China news, China’s Ministry of Commerce said that the sides reached an initial consensus on a range of issues including an extension of the tariff truce, fentanyl, agricultural trade, export controls and shipping levies. In turn, US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested that China would defer its new rare-earth export controls for one year and make “substantial” purchases of US soybeans, while the US threat of 100% tariffs on China was “effectively off the table”. Bessent signalled that the agreed “framework” should allow Presidents Trump and Xi to have “a very productive meeting” when they meet on Thursday on the sidelines of the APEC summit. The details from that meeting should give a clearer sense whether this represents a genuine stabilisation in US-China trade relations or only a return to the uneasy trade truce in place before the rhetoric escalated earlier this month. Any reduction of the 20% fentanyl tariffs by the US will be one key barometer to watch.

Asian markets are surging amid the US-China optimism this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei (+2.17%) and Korea’s KOSPI (+2.00%) on course for new record highs. Chinese stocks are showing significant, if slightly smaller, gains, with the CSI, the Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng all about +1% higher. US equity futures are also advancing strongly from Friday’s record close (see last week’s recap at the end), with S&P 500 and NASDAQ futures +0.75% and +0.97% higher respectively. The risk-on mood is also boosting copper (+1.54%) and oil (+0.26%), but weighing on 10yr USTs (+3.2bps) and gold (-1.06%).

In other weekend trade news, Trump signed trade framework pacts with Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia. The countries will allow preferential access for US goods in return for tariff exemptions on some of their exports to the US, though many of exact details are still to be finalised. By contrast, Trump announced a 10% additional tariff on Canada amid a spat over an anti-tariff ad released by the government of Ontario. It’s not clear whether USMCA-compliant goods would remain exempt from the extra 10% levy, which would mitigate much of its impact, but it’s a reminder that tariffs remain a go-to policy tool for the US administration even if peak trade uncertainty is behind us.

Looking to the week ahead, a second consecutive 25bps Fed cut looks locked in for Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, with markets pricing 49bps of cuts across the next two meetings. With a dearth of data and a still-divided FOMC, our US economists think Chair Powell is unlikely to provide clear signals on the policy path ahead, focusing more on topics including balance sheet policy and financial stability. Indeed, their baseline is that the Fed will this week announce an end to QT in response to the recent tightening in funding markets. See our US economists’ overall Fed preview here and our strategists’ note on what to expect on the balance sheet here.

In Europe, the ECB is widely expected to keep the deposit rate steady at 2% for a third consecutive meeting. Our economists think ECB President Lagarde will again describe policy as “in a good place” and will be watching whether she maintains the net hawkish tone that she struck in July and September. The Bank of Japan (Thursday) is expected to maintain its current policy stance, while the Bank of Canada is likely to deliver its own 25bp rate cut on Wednesday.

The Q3 earnings season will reach its apex this week with key reports due from Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta on Wednesday as well as Apple and Amazon on Thursday. The five biggest companies in the world after Nvidia now make up $15tn in total market capitalisation or 25% of the S&P 500. The full list of key reports is in the week ahead calendar at the end as usual.

On the data front, in the US the Conference Board’s October consumer confidence readings (Tuesday) are likely to be the main indicator of note amid the government shutdown. In the euro area, Germany’s ifo survey today will receive extra attention after last Friday’s jump in the PMIs, the ECB’s quarterly Bank Lending Survey (Tuesday) will precede its rates decision, and we’ll get the October inflation readings for Germany and Spain on Thursday, followed by France, Italy and the Eurozone on Friday. In Asia, we have the October PMIs in China (Friday) as well as September retail sales, industrial production and the Tokyo CPI for October in Japan (Thursday).

In data out of Asia this morning, China’s industrial profits have risen by +21.6% year-on-year in September, representing the largest increase since November 2023. This follows a +20.4% surge in August and brings the YTD increase to +3.2% in the first nine months of the year.

In other overnight news, Argentina’s mid-term elections saw an unexpected clear victory for President Javier Milei's party, with 41% of the vote according to provisional results. That should allow Milei to protect his veto power and pursue aggressive reform policies, with local assets expected to rally this morning. Political developments will also be in focus in Europe this week, with the ongoing 2026 budget deliberations in France and the snap general election in the Netherlands (Wednesday).

Now recapping last week, a risk-on mood dominated after some volatility, helped by reduced US-China fears and Friday’s soft US CPI print. This saw lower-than-expected headline (+0.31% m/m vs +0.4% expected) and core CPI (+0.23% vs. +0.3% expected), mostly driven by softness in owner equivalent rents (+0.13% m/m) which saw their slowest monthly rise since the Covid pandemic. The trimmed mean and median CPI measures were also on the softer side at +0.2% m/m, but there some concerning price increases for tariff-affected goods categories. You can see our US economists’ full CPI take here.

Friday’s softer CPI cemented expectations of 25bp rate cuts for the next two Fed meetings and helped the S&P 500 rise +0.79% (+1.92% over the week) to a new record high. A strong start to the Q3 earnings season and confirmation of the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting drove tech outperformance, with the NASDAQ (+2.31%, +1.15% Friday) and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+2.94%, +1.89% Friday) also reaching new all-time highs. And bank stocks continued to pare back earlier losses, with the KBW Bank Index up +3.62% as credit quality fears eased. This meant that US IG and HY credit spreads tightened by -3bps and -12bps respectively over the week, while European IG and HY spreads were -4bps and -15 bps tighter.

Global equities also posted new highs. That included the Stoxx 600 (+1.68% Friday, +0.23% Friday) and the FTSE 100 (+3.11%, +0.70% Friday) in Europe. And in Japan, with Sanae Takaichi becoming the new PM after winning a parliamentary vote, the Nikkei was up +3.61% (+1.35% Friday) to a record high of its own.

Bonds saw a more mixed performance. Treasuries initially rallied in response to Friday’s CPI print but were little changed by the close as markets digested the signal that tariff effects still had some way to play out. The 2yr yield was up +2.5bps over the week (-0.9bps Friday) to 3.48%, while 10yr yields ended the week -0.7bps lower at 4.00% (+0.1bps Friday) after touching a 12-month low of 3.95% on Wednesday. In Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (+4.5bps), OATs (+7.2bps) and BTPs (+3.7bps) all moved higher. Most of that rise came on Friday as the Euro area composite PMI rose to a 17-month high of 52.2 and Germany’s composite PMI to a 2-year high of 53.8.

Lastly, some of the biggest market moves last week came in commodities, with both oil and precious metals seeing sharp volatility. Brent crude oil rose +7.59% to $65.94/bbl after the US announced sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies. For gold, a sudden -5.20% slump last Tuesday – its biggest daily drop in 5 years – left the precious metal -3.26% lower on the week.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 08:36

These Are Forecast To Be America's Fastest-Growing States Over The Next 25 Years

Over the next 25 years, Texas is projected to gain 8.6 million residents, the highest absolute increase across states.

Like Texas, Florida and California are projected to lead nationally in population gains, adding 5.2 million and 3.1 million people, respectively. In comparison, 18 states are projected to shrink.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows America’s fastest-growing states by 2050, based on forecasts from the University of Virginia.

The Data Behind the Fastest-Growing States

Between now and 2050, the U.S. is projected to grow 9%, adding nearly 32 million people to its population.

However, growth across states is forecast to vary widely. Utah, for instance, is set to grow nearly four times faster than the national average, at 35%. Meanwhile, West Virginia’s population is set to contract 15%.

Notably, North Dakota, Idaho, and Washington D.C. are all projected to see 30% growth over the period.

At the same time, nine states are expected to grow their populations by over 1 million residents, including Georgia and North Carolina. When it comes to New York, the population is set to grow just 4%, adding around 820,000 people—far lower than other populous states.

On the other hand, Illinois is set to see the sharpest absolute decline, losing 1.1 million residents.

With migration slowing and fertility levels declining as the population ages, America’s growth is projected to slow over the coming decades. In fact, 25% of Maine and Florida’s populations are projected to be 65 years or older by 2050.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the world’s fastest-shrinking countries.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 07:45

Germany's Industrial Core Is Collapsing As PwC Warns Of "Decisive Year"

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Germany’s Minister of Economic Affairs, Katherina Reiche (CDU), hopes her new debt package will trigger an economic turnaround. But new data from consulting firm PwC shows the downward spiral in the industrial heart of Germany - its machinery sector - is accelerating.

The path back from economic depression keeps getting longer. PwC’s latest industry analysis shows conditions in machinery manufacturing continued to worsen over the course of the year. For 2024, a sales decline of 5.6 percent is now expected.

No Light at the End of the Tunnel 

This brings the total production slump since pre-Covid times to over 22 percent. Average capacity utilization has fallen to 80.8 percent - its lowest level in five years. Rising energy-related cost pressures, suffocating regulation, and weakening demand in major export markets such as China and the U.S., also a result of Washington’s tariff policy are pushing output into the basement.

PwC’s industry expert Bernd Jung says: “2025 will be a decisive year for machinery and plant engineering. After the government collapses in France and Germany, alongside geopolitical conflicts, fears are growing about the viability of the sector’s business model.”

This assessment is reinforced by a surge in insolvencies reported by industry association VDMA and Creditreform. Compared to last year, bankruptcies increased by 22 percent. Since January, around 12,000 jobs have been lost in machinery manufacturing. PwC warns another 20,000 could disappear by year’s end if the expected recovery fails to materialize.

A Rabbit in Front of the Snake 

Where should the turnaround come from? The federal government remains a monolithic obstacle. Its reaction to this dramatic situation exposes a political class unable to diagnose problems or correct them.

Coalition parties are tangled up in internal disputes and tax-hike fantasies. The only consensus? Defending Brussels’ eco-socialist agenda at any cost. Climate targets—and their catastrophic downstream effects on German industry—are non-negotiable.

The sole measure actually enacted to ease industry pressure is a 30 percent degressive depreciation allowance introduced on July 1. But where little or no investment happens, tax write-offs are meaningless.

A tiny tax cut of €11 billion annually from 2027 for four years is an even smaller band-aid.

To recap: Germany is now the most expensive business location in the OECD—and with a regulatory cost burden of €60 billion, hardly an investor’s paradise.

Investors Are Fleeing Germany 

PwC’s report confirms the trend: companies relocate wherever possible. Automakers like BMW and Audi now invest heavily in Hungary—BMW’s expansion in Debrecen being one prime example.

Berlin hopes to counter this trend with a capped industrial electricity price. If adopted into law, about 1,200 energy-intensive firms in chemicals, metals and glass could apply for subsidies capping wholesale power costs at five cents per kWh for up to half their consumption.

The €4 billion relief package is another drop in the ocean—and predictably tied to “climate-friendly production.”

One can’t shake the impression that policymakers have consciously turned against traditional German industry to impose their ideological experiment.

The Myth of Growth 

PwC offers a clear view of the near- and mid-term economic outlook—and it’s bleak. While the government celebrates its debt package with fairy tales of an imminent boom, Germany digs itself deeper into economic depression.

Machinery manufacturing is the industrial seismograph: once it shakes, the entire economic engine rattles. These companies are the first to feel when corporate investment is slashed.

The sector is also burdened by the collapse of the German auto industry. What politicians and powerful climate NGOs—such as German Environmental Aid, long suspected of serving foreign interests—call “transformation” was in truth a direct assault on the core of national prosperity.

China, meanwhile, plays a major role in financing anti-industry climate activism in the EU and U.S.

While Beijing showers its automakers with support, Berlin has pulled the rug out from under its own flagship sector—triggering cascading damage throughout the industrial value chain.

Cascading Decline 

A cumulative production decline of 22 percent since the 2018 peak is a glaring alarm signal—proof of an economic depression that not only cripples industry but threatens social insurance funds with a debt spiral.

This crisis is triggering a massive social shock, driven by an eco-socialist crash policy that imposes ideology regardless of economic reality. It carries the potential for explosive societal upheaval.

A social crisis of historic scale will erupt the moment the state can no longer reliably provide pensions, ensure basic living standards, or maintain adequate healthcare. Germany has overextended itself—trying to run the world’s social welfare office and a centrally planned green economy at the same time. That “green miracle” now stands revealed for what it always was: a utopian illusion detached from reality.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 07:20