Jobles Claims Explode Higher In First Week Of December

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time jumped significantly last week (from 225k to 242k - well above expectations of 220k) - the highest since the first week of October.

On an un-adjusted basis, claims exploded higher (highest since January)...

Source: Bloomberg

Oh, and in case you need someone to blame for this utter farce - it's California of course. Just look at the last four weeks of unadjusted claims - exploding higher and crashing lower like a penny stock? Must be all those sanctuary-seeking illegals?

Continuing jobless claims remains below the 1.9mm Maginot Line (1.886mm) - hovering near the highest levels since Nov 2021...

Source: Bloomberg

The seasonals in the initial claims data is just the 'excuse' The Fed needs to feed the beast with another rate-cut next week... and then 'revise' the print lower once again.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 08:45

ECB Cuts Rates As Expected, Euro Tumbles After Reference To "Restrictive Policy" Is Dropped

As expected, the ECB cut rates by the bare minimum 25bps, avoiding a 50bps cut which some had penciled in and said is required at a time when Europe's economy is in freefall even though inflation remains sticky. The ECB's fourth rate cut of this easing cycle pushed the Deposit rate to 3.0% from 3.25%, and also trimmed the Refi Rate and Lending Facility rate to 3.15% and 3.40% respectively.

While the decision was inline, there were some big changes to the ECB’s policy language. Gone are the references to restrictive policy settings and inflation returning to the target. Reading between the lines here, the ECB judges it’s basically there.

NEW LANGUAGE:

The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

OLD LANGUAGE

The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. It will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim. The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction.

The biggest highlight is that the ECB dropped the term "it will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim". That reflects the fact that at 3.0%, even for the most hawkish members of the committee, the policy rate is considered to be neutral rather than restrictive. According to UBS, "this isn't in itself a dovish signal, rather it's a statement of fact. Policy isn't considered to be restrictive so the reference has to go."

Most important message from ECB in the decision statement:

The hawkish bias of policy restrictiveness is removed. There is no cues about a potential jumbo cut or where they land (terminal rate), but importantly, the hawkish bias is removed

btw, it was a 25bp rate cut

— Piet Haines Christiansen (@pietphc) December 12, 2024

The ECB also downgraded the inflation section, which now has the line: "The disinflation process is well on track." However, that's tempered by the fact the inflation forecasts are still sending the same signal. Inflation averages above target in 2025 and is well above target on core, at 2.3% (which is unchanged from September's forecast).

The ECB maintained in the statement the warning on wage growth: "[Inflation] remains high, mostly because wages and prices in certain sectors are still adjusting to the past inflation surge with a substantial delay."

Some more details from the report:

STANCE:

• Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
• Will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
• Monetary policy remains restrictive

ECONOMY:

• Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections
• The gradually fading effects of restrictive monetary policy should support a pick-up in domestic demand

The ECB also downgrade its economic forecasts:

HICP INFLATION:

• 2024: 2.4% (prev. 2.5%),
• 2025: 2.1% (prev. 2.2%).
• 2026: 1.9% (prev. 1.9%),
• 2027: 2.1%

HICP CORE INFLATION (EX-ENERGY & FOOD):

• 2024: 2.9% (prev. 2.9%),
• 2025: 2.3% (prev. 2.3%),
• 2026: 1.9% (prev. 2.0%), 2027: 1.9%.

GDP:

• 2024: 0.7% (prev. 0.8%),
• 2025: 1.1% (prev. 1.3%),
• 2026: 1.4% (prev. 1.5%), 2027: 1.3%

According to UBS, the ECB's commentary was "disappointing" with the refusal to acknowledge the economic challenges in the Eurozone or give any indication the markets are pricing correctly. The ECB said it was not pre-committing to any particular rate path. It said it was determined that inflation should stabilise sustainably at the 2% target. It said inflation had slowed, but remains high overall.

Commenting on the rate cut, DB's European chief economist Mark Wall said that “this ECB easing cycle has further to go. The ECB delivered the fourth quarter-point rate cut of this easing cycle at the December meeting and the second back-to-back cut. More importantly, the door has been opened more clearly to further cuts. The ECB continued to describe current financing conditions as tight but dropped the reference to needing to keep policy sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary. This combination signals an easing bias. For a market that has been pricing the chances of a sub-neutral terminal rate in 2025 today’s ECB decision will feel like an endorsement."

The euro fell to a fresh day low of $1.0470 and it’s down to the ECB dropping the ‘restrictive policy’ part from its statement. That doesn’t mean however that policy language is outright dovish. Moves in euro area bonds are muted.

There was also a  relatively choppy reaction in EGBs with Bund Mar‘25 slipping from 135.76 to 135.64 before paring and then lifting to 135.84 over the course of three minutes. Here is the latest ECB Pricing expectations:

• Jan‘25 -27bps
• Mar'25-63bps
• End-2025-125bps

And now we turn attention to Lagarde's presser.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 08:36

Futures Drop, Yields Rise Ahead Of Fourth ECB Rate Cut

US equity futures and European bourses trade lower as bond yields rise 2-3bps across the curve as Treasury yields rose ahead of the Fed's policy meeting next week and ahead of today's ECB rate cut (preview here). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2% and Nasdaq futures slide 0.4% after disappointing guidance by Adobe sent the stock tumbling, even though pre-mkt, Mag7 names are mostly higher led by GOOG/TSLA, but Tech overall is lagging after the Nasdaq set a new ATH yesterday. Both indexes made strong gains on Wednesday, when an in-line US inflation print cemented swap markets’ expectations of a a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s Dec. 17-18 meeting. The USD is weaker and commodities are mostly bid led by energy, Ags, and base metals. Banks are weaker despite positive reports at an industry conference. Today’s macro focus is on PPI (Core exp. 0.2% MoM, 3.2% YoY) and Jobless Claims (exp. 220K).

In premarket trading, Adobe tumbled 11% after giving a disappointing annual sales outlook, underscoring anxieties that the software company may lose business to emerging artificial intelligence-based startups.

• Gambling.com Group (GAMB) climbs 5% as the company is in advanced negotiations to buy OddsJam, an online service that helps sports bettors find the best odds, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Keros Therapeutics (KROS) plunges 71% after halting higher dosing in a part of the drug developer’s trial of an experimental therapy for patients with a lung disease, citing side effects.
• Kroger (KR), whose planned merger with fellow grocery giant Albertsons was scuttled this week, climbs 2% after announcing a $7.5 billion share buyback program.
• Lovesac (LOVE) tumbles 19% after the furniture retailer cut its net sales guidance for the full year.

Next up we get the European Central Bank, which is expected to lower policy rates by a quarter-point, following on from the Swiss National Bank’s surprising 50 basis-point reduction earlier in the day. With an ECB cut, its fourth this year, already baked in, traders will wait for clues from rate-setters on the extent of loosening needed in this cycle.

“We anticipate a dovish 25-basis-point rate cut, alongside signals of flexibility on future adjustments,” said Mohamad Al-Saraf, an FX and rates analyst at Danske Bank. “Post-decision communication will be pivotal, given divisions within the Governing Council.” Ahead of the ECB, the euro firmed as much as 0.7% against the Swiss franc, while Switzerland’s stocks and bonds climbed immediately after the rate cut, which aims to prevent further franc gains and stop an inflation undershoot.

The ECB cut will be the latest of this week’s moves towards more policy easing by major central banks. Prior to the Swiss rate cut, Canada lowered its policy rates by a half point, Australia hinted it’s moving toward cuts and China vowed to deliver rate cuts. Japan, however, signaled it’s in no hurry to hike rates.

Traders are also waiting for US producer inflation numbers due later Thursday, alongside the weekly jobless claims print for further clues on prices and the health of the economy. Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman noted that still-elevated price pressures “argue for a shallow Fed easing cycle.”

Among individual stock movers, software firm Adobe Inc. dropped more than 10% in US premarket trading after a weaker-than-expected full-year forecast, while Uber Technologies Inc. was lifted by upbeat management comments at an industry conference.

European stocks are little changed as losses in retail and health care shares are offset by gains in autos and energy. Luxury goods firm Brunello Cucinelli SpA rallied after an increased revenue growth forecast. Luxury stocks were broadly firmer alongside other China-exposed sectors such as miners, after the country’s commerce ministry said it’s open to trade talks with the US. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Lonza shares jump as much as 7.7%, the most since July, after the health care group announced that it would divest from its capsule business at an appropriate time
• Diageo shares rise as much as 3.9% after the alcoholic beverage maker was upgraded by analysts at UBS in a note published on Wednesday. They believe the earnings downgrade cycle is approaching its end and see upside potential to its US business
• Grifols shares gained as much as 9.2% after the Spanish drugmaker raised €1.3 billion in a private debt placement and its long-term rating was upgraded by S&P to B+ from B
• Temenos shares gain as much as 7.9% to a one-month high after it received an upgrade to buy from hold at Jefferies, which sees the Swiss banking software firm’s new CEO and strategy as providing a “welcome kick-start”
• Brunello Cucinelli shares rise as much as 7.1% to a eight-month high after the luxury goods maker increased its revenue growth forecast. Analysts said that this shows the Italian firm’s resilience and the benefits of its exposure to the US market and wealthy clients
• Watches of Switzerland shares gain 4.1% after Kepler Cheuvreux lifts to buy on its exposure to high-end watches and the US market
• Inditex shares drop as much as 3.3%, after RBC downgraded the Zara owner to underperform from sector perform. RBC notes the valuation remains quite full, even with the sharp decline after Wednesday’s nine-month earning
• Sopra Steria shares fall as much as 6.9%, the most since July, after some analysts found the IT services provider’s new Ebit margin outlook disappointing. The firm’s management will explain its strategy at its capital markets day this morning
• Nemetschek drops as much as 4.8%, the most in 14 weeks, after JPMorgan starts coverage of the German real estate software firm at underweight and says earnings-growth trajectory is being overestimated by consensus
• SThree shares plummet as much as 36%, a record drop that has sent the stock to a four-year low, after the recruitment company significantly downgraded its profit expectations for FY25

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, driven by gains in tech shares after benign US inflation backed the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped as much as 1.1%, the most in a week. Major contributors to the gauge’s rise included TSMC, Tencent and Samsung Electronics. A sub-gauge of information technology shares gained as much as 1.8%. The advance tracks a rally on Wall Street, where the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index jumped 1.9% to a record high. Also of focus in the region is whether China will release details on the outcome of a key economic meeting that’s expected to conclude Thursday. Benchmarks in Hong Kong rose more than 1% on bets for stronger stimulus. Japanese equities closed higher for a fourth consecutive day, supported by the yen’s recent weakness. Bloomberg News reported that Bank of Japan officials see little cost to waiting before raising interest rates. Shares in South Korea jumped on expectations that President Yoon Suk Yeol may get impeached in a parliament vote this weekend for his failed martial law bid. Some market watchers have been saying that his ouster will ease political uncertainty and help stabilize sentiment.

“We are yet to be convinced to go overweight in Chinese equities, largely because we have not really seen a meaningful pick up in domestic demand,” Dayeon Hong, a multi-asset portfolio manager at Shinhan Asset Management Co. in Seoul, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. She added that China may see more upside potential in growth next year if boosted by “moderately loose” monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy.

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index steadied as China set a stronger yuan fixing, a day after the currency weakened following a Reuters report that a depreciation was being considered. The euro adds a few pips ahead of the ECB decision where a 25-bp interest rate cut is widely expected. Most economists also saw the Swiss National Bank delivering a quarter-point reduction but policymakers opted for a larger 50-bp move, sending the franc to the bottom of the G-10 FX leader board with 0.2% fall against the dollar. The Aussie dollar is still the best performer, rising 0.8% after solid jobs data prompted traders to pare their rate cut bets.

In rates, treasury futures are near session lows in early US dealing as concession continues to build for $22 billion 30-year bond auction at 1pm New York time. Treasuries fell for a fourth day, pushing US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.30%. European government bonds also decline, led by Italy. Other factors include crude oil extending its weekly climb and a curve-steepening selloff in gilts. ECB rate decision at 8:15am is expected to be a quarter-point rate cut, following a surprise 50bp cut by the SNB. US yields are 2.5bp to 3bp higher across maturities, with the 10-year around 4.3%, outperforming gilts by roughly 1bp in the sector; US curve spreads are little changed on the day. Week’s Treasury auction cycle concludes with the 30-year bond reopening; demand was strong for Wednesday’s 10-year note sale , which stopped through by 1.7bp.

In commodities, oil prices are off the highs after the IEA said markets still face a glut next year despite the recent OPEC+ decision. WTI rises 0.2% to $70.40. Spot gold falls $5. Bitcoin rises back above $100,000.

Today's US economic data calendar includes November PPI and weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and 3Q household change in net worth (12pm).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 6,082.00
• STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 519.44
• MXAP up 0.7% to 187.53
• MXAPJ up 0.6% to 589.57
• Nikkei up 1.2% to 39,849.14
• Topix up 0.9% to 2,773.03
• Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 20,397.05
• Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,461.50
• Sensex down 0.4% to 81,228.48
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 8,330.26
• Kospi up 1.6% to 2,482.12
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.16%
• Euro up 0.2% to $1.0513
• Brent Futures up 0.4% to $73.83/bbl
• Brent Futures up 0.4% to $73.84/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.1% to $2,716.44
• US Dollar Index down 0.16% to 106.54

Top Overnight News

• Donald Trump invited Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration, CBS reported. Xi’s attendance would be unprecedented and may signal an effort by Trump to court him amidst threats of fresh tariffs against China. BBG
• The Bank of Japan is leaning toward keeping interest rates steady next week as policymakers prefer to spend more time scrutinizing overseas risks and clues on next year's wage outlook. Any such decision will heighten the chance of an interest rate hike at the central bank's subsequent meeting in January or March. RTRS
• The Japanese parliament’s lower house passed a ¥13.9 trillion extra budget to help finance PM Shigeru Ishiba’s economic stimulus package. BBG
• South Korea’s opposition filed a second impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk Yeol as more ruling party members indicated they’ll support it. BBG
• The Swiss franc fell after the SNB delivered a bigger-than-expected half-point cut to its key rate to 0.5%. Another reduction will probably come in March, taking the rate to 0.25%, citing pressure from the easing of other central banks. BBG
• Mike Waltz, Trump’s national security advisor, warned that Iran will see a significant increase in sanctions and pressure once the new administration takes office. BBG
• Hamas has yielded to two of Israel’s key demands for a cease-fire deal in Gaza, raising hopes of an agreement that could release some hostages within days despite the repeated collapse of previous negotiations. WSJ
• Oil markets globally will see plentiful supply in 2025 even if the OPEC+ production cuts aren’t unwound according to the IEA (oil supply is on track to increase 630K B/D this year and 1.9M in 2025 even in the absence of OPEC+ unwinding). IEA
• The US plans a new loophole-closing rule aimed at curbing Chinese firms’ sourcing of AI chips from unrestricted third-party countries, the SCMP reported. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks eventually mimicked the sentiment on Wall Street and traded mostly higher following a slow start to the session and despite a lack of macro news flow. ASX 200 saw its earlier gains hampered after a strong Aussie jobs report which followed the dovish RBA yesterday, in which Governor Bullock said the Board will be watching all data including employment. Nikkei 225 reclaimed the 40,000 level for the first time since mid-October with gains driven by the Industrial and IT sectors, although at one point, the upside was capped by the firmer JPY. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat lethargic at the start, but momentum picked up, although there was little  notable reaction seen on reports that US President-elect Trump invited Chinese President Xi to attend his inauguration next month, whilst it was not clear whether Xi has accepted the invitation. Participants now await the outcome of the Central Economic Work Conference.

Top Asian News

• South Korean opposition files a second motion to impeach President Yoon, via Bloomberg
• China's Commerce Ministry say China is open to contact and communication with the Trump administration's economic and trade team
• US President-elect Trump has invited Chinese President Xi to attend his inauguration next month, multiple sources told CBS News; it was not clear whether Xi has accepted the invitation.
• BoJ is reportedly leaning toward keeping rates steady next week, according to Reuters sources; there is no consensus within the bank on the final decision, some believe conditions have been met for a December hike; BoJ could hike if FOMC decision triggers JPY selloff. Many policymakers appear in no rush to pull the trigger with little risk of inflation overshooting, sources added.
• Japanese companies are reportedly worried about tariff hikes and US-China relations, according to a Reuters survey; Nearly three-quarters of Japanese companies expect Trump's next term to have a negative impact on the business environment.
• South Korean Finance Minister said they will closely monitor financial markets and respond to boost investor sentiment if needed, according to Reuters.
• South Korean President Yoon said he will fight until the last moment, according to Reuters.

European bourses began the session entirely in the green, albeit modestly so. As the morning progressed, some indices slipped into negative territory to display a slightly more mixed picture in Europe. European sectors began the session with a strong positive bias, but in a turn of fortunes now display a mostly negative picture. Autos lead, followed by Energy/Basic Resources; the pair lifted by gains in the underlying. Retail is the clear underperformer, continuing the pressure seen in the prior session. US equity futures are very modestly on the backfoot, with the NQ paring back some of the hefty gains seen in the prior session.

Top European News

• UK RICS Housing Survey (Nov) 25.0 vs. Exp. 19.0 (Prev. 16.0); highest since September 2022.
• India-UK Free Trade Agreement talks to commence at the end of January, according to an Indian government source cited by Reuters.
• Swiss SNB Policy Rate (Q4) 0.50% vs. Exp. 0.75% (Prev. 1.00%); "also remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary". SNB's Schlegel says development of CHF is still the important factor. Remains willing to intervene as necessary. Rate cuts remain the main policy instrument if further easing is required. Uncertainty on future inflation path is high, inflationary pressure has decreased markedly over the medium term. SNB still has room for further interest rate moves. Main instrument is policy rate, with that can influence the economy and exchange rate. This step us intended to stabilise inflation between 0 and 2%. Can tolerate weakening of inflation below 0-2% target range, as long as it is temporary. SNB Chair Schlegel says the SNB does not like negative interest rates; the likelihood of negative interest rates has become small.
• German Economy expected to stagnated in 2025 (prev. forecast 0.5%); German GDP expected to expand by 0.9% in 2026.
• Ifo institute forecasts Germany's growth between 0.4 - 1.1% in 2025. If German economy fails to overcome structural challenges, only 0.4% growth compared to the 1.1% if the right economic policy course is set. Expects 2.3% inflation in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, in both scenarios

FX

• USD is steady after an early bout of weakness that didn't appear to be driven by any particularly obvious catalyst. Looking ahead, focus remains on price data following yesterday's CPI report with PPI metrics due on deck. DXY remains within yesterday's 106.26-80 range.
• EUR/USD is just about holding above the 1.05 mark in the run-up to today's ECB rate decision. Consensus looks for the ECB to deliver a 25bps rate cut with just an 18% chance of a deeper 50bps cut. EUR/USD currently sits within yesterday's 1.0480-1.0539 range.
• USD/JPY is a touch higher after a choppy APAC session which saw initial JPY strength fade following source reporting via Reuters that the BoJ is leaning towards keeping rates steady next week, albeit, there is no consensus within the bank on the final decision. Currently sits towards the top end of yesterday's 151.00-152.86 range.
• GBP is relatively contained vs. the USD as UK-specific drivers remain light. Tomorrow's monthly GDP print unlikely to be a gamechanger for the BoE. Cable briefly eclipsed yesterday's best, printing a session peak at 1.2787 before settling into yesterday's 1.2714-1.2782 range.
• AUD is at the top of the G10 leaderboard following the Aussie jobs report which saw Employment Change topping forecasts (driven by full-time employment) whilst the Unemployment Rate surprisingly fell to 3.9% despite forecasts of an uptick to 4.2% from 4.1%, although the Participation Rate surprisingly dipped. AUD/USD saw a boost nonetheless and moved back onto a 0.64 handle.
• CHF is on the backfoot after the SNB surprised markets by pulling the trigger on a deeper 50bps cut vs. expectations of a smaller 25bps move. The decision was accompanied by a reiteration that the Bank remains willing to intervene in the FX market as necessary whilst 2024 and 2025 inflation forecasts were lowered.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1854 vs exp. 7.2438 (prev. 7.1843)

Brazil Central Bank

• Brazilian Selic Interest Rate 12.25% vs. Exp. 12.0% (Prev. 11.25%); decision unanimous; in light of more adverse inflation scenario, the committee sees hikes of the same magnitude at the next two meetings.
• Brazilian Finance Minister Haddad said BCB decision was a surprise but pricing pointed to a move like that; and added there is no decision about changing the fiscal package, according to Reuters.
• Banxico financial stability report: Mexico's financial system has a resilient and solid position; stress tests confirmed that the banking system as a whole has the capacity to absorb significant shocks.

Fixed Income

• USTs are in the red, but only modestly so. Action which came after a selloff emerged at the end of Wednesday’s US session into settlement, no specific driver behind this at the time. Currently at a low of 110-16 and continuing to slip from an initial 110-24 high print.
• Bunds are a little softer in-fitting with peers but ultimately awaiting the ECB later. Macro drivers otherwise have been somewhat light aside from the SNB which delivered a 50bps move. An announcement which sparked some modest EGB upside. As it stands, Bunds are at a 135.56 base having faded from an SNB-driven peak of 135.85, downside which was marginally added to by SNB’s Schlegel remarking that they do not like negative rates and the likelihood of a return to NIRP is small.
• OATs are a little softer with President Macron expected to announce his new PM today. As it stands, it is unclear who Macron will propose with the likes of former Justice Minister Bayrou and current Defense Minister Lecornu among those touted.
• Gilts are in-fitting with peers. Lost the 95.00 mark early doors and has since slipped to a 94.89 base.
• Italy sells EUR 8.5bln vs exp. EUR 6.75-8.5bln 2.70% 2027, 3.15% 2031, 3.35% 2035, 4.30% 2054 BTP:

Commodities

• WTI and Brent are incrementally firmer on the session, though only modestly so in comparison to the action seen on Wednesday. Nonetheless, benchmarks continue to advance on the USD 70/bbl and USD 73/bbl handles respectively; in recent trade, prices have almost entirely pared overnight strength. Downside was seen following the IEA OMR, where it cut its 2024 world oil demand growth forecast.
• Gold is essentially unchanged at the USD 2715/oz level. Unable to gain any traction amid ongoing USD strength and yield advances, though the metal has avoided a move into the red seemingly on the back of the tepid/mixed European risk tone.
• Base metals generally hold a positive bias; copper is a little more contained, with 3M LME just above the USD 9.2k mark.
• Saudi crude supply to China is to rise to around 46mln barrels in January, via Reuters citing sources (around 36.5mln in Dec., around 46mln in Nov).
• IEA Monthly Oil Market Report: cuts 2024 world oil demand growth forecast to 840k BPD (prev. 920k BPD); raises 2025 forecast to 1.1mln BPD (prev. 990k BPD), citing Chinese stimulus measures. World oil market looks comfortably supplied next year. Current balances suggest a 950k BPD overhand in 2025 if OPEC+ begins unwinding voluntary cuts as of the end of March 2025.
• India is reportedly to decide soon on whether to impose curbs on the imports of steelmaking raw materials, via Reuters citing sources.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli troops have entered Syria buffer zone on a temporary basis, according to Bloomberg
• "Hamas agreed to the presence of Israeli forces in Gaza after a ceasefire goes into effect", according to Kann News.
• "Israeli army announces the withdrawal from the tents area in southern Lebanon in accordance with the ceasefire agreement ", according to Al Arabiya.

Geopolitics: Other

• China's President Xi says China is willing to strengthen strategic alignment with Russia, and tap into the intrinsic driving force of bilateral cooperation, via state media.
• Russia's Navy Chief says that NATO has increased its military activity in the arctic region, via Ria; naval grouping of Russian nuclear forces has been completely renewed, via Tass.
• US President-elect Trump is reportedly considering ex-intelligence chief Richard Grenell as Special Envoy for Iran, according to Reuters sources; the article suggests consideration of a key ally for the position sends a signal that Trump may be open to talks.
• US House of Representatives passed USD 895bln defence policy bill, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Dec. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,000, prior 224,00008:30: Nov. PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 2.6%, prior
  • Nov. Continuing Claims, est. 1.88m, prior 1.87m
• 08:30: Nov. PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
  • Nov. PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
  • Nov. PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.4%
  • Nov. PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3.2%, prior 3.1% 
• 12:00: 3Q US Household Change in Net Worth, prior $2.76t

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets put in a decent performance yesterday, as the US CPI report came in broadly as expected, which was seen as giving the all-clear for the Fed to cut rates next week. That meant futures dialled up the likelihood of a 25bp rate cut to 99% by the close. And on top of that, the S&P 500 (+0.82%) ended the session just a whisker beneath its all-time high, with the Magnificent 7 (+3.08%) powering forward to a new record.

In terms of the details of that CPI print, the monthly headline and core CPI readings were both at +0.31% in November. So that was basically in line with the +0.3% print the consensus was expecting. So even though inflation was still running a bit too fast for the Fed to be comfortable, markets were relieved that it wasn’t an even higher number that would prevent the Fed cutting rates next week. After all, core CPI has now been running at +0.3% for four consecutive months, and the 3-month annualised rate for core CPI ticked up to +3.7%, so this isn’t just a case of one strong print. And in turn, that’s led to growing concern that inflation is becoming sticky above target, even if we’re not seeing the really high numbers of a couple of years ago. For the year-on-year numbers, the latest release meant headline CPI ticked up to +2.7%, whilst the core CPI print was steady at 3.3%, where it’s been for the last three months now.

Admittedly, one piece of good news was that shelter and services inflation moderated, and those are fairly sticky categories, even if this decline was offset by stronger goods prices. But even though Treasury yields fell by several basis points after the CPI print, lingering inflation concerns saw this move reverse later on. For instance, 10yr yields closed near the session highs (+4.5bps to 4.27%), rising for a third consecutive day despite a solid 10yr auction.

Nevertheless, when it comes to the Fed, the CPI print left little doubt among investors that another rate cut will happen next week. Indeed, futures moved up the likelihood of a cut from 86% right before the CPI came out to 99% by the close. It’s true that inflation is still too fast for their liking, but last week’s jobs report also saw a fresh rise in the unemployment rate, so our US economists think that will still enable them to cut next week.

Looking forward, central banks will stay in the spotlight today, as the ECB are announcing their latest policy decision at 13:15 London time. They’re widely expected to cut their deposit rate by another 25bps, taking it down to 3%, and that would bring their total rate cuts to 100bps since they began in June. Our European economists are also looking for a 25bp cut today, and they expect the doves and hawks to compromise on a mildly dovish evolution in communications. For next year, they then see the ECB continuing to cut by 25bps per meeting in H1, followed by quarterly 25bp cuts in H2, leaving the deposit rate at 1.5% by end-2025. See their full preview here for more details.

Ahead of the ECB, European assets put in a strong performance yesterday. At the front-end, bond yields fell across the continent, with French, Italian and Spanish 2yr yields falling to their lowest levels since 2022. And while 10yr bund yields inched up (+0.7bps), both the Italian and Spanish 10yr spreads over bunds reached their tightest level in three years yesterday, at 106bps and 63bps, respectively. Equities put in a decent performance too, with the STOXX 600 (+0.28%) clawing back some of the previous day’s losses as the DAX (+0.34%), CAC 40 (+0.39%) and FTSE 100 (+0.26%) all advanced.

For US equities, it was another day of the tech mega caps dominating. Four of the Magnificent 7 posted new record highs, namely Alphabet (+5.52%), Amazon (+2.32%), Meta (+2.16%) and Tesla (+5.93%). And Broadcom (+6.63%) surged after a report that it was working on an AI chip with Apple. That saw the S&P 500 (+0.82%) close less than 0.1% beneath its all-time high, even though the equal-weighted version of the index is still over -2% beneath its record.

Elsewhere yesterday, the Bank of Canada delivered a 50bp rate cut that took their policy rate down to 3.25%. That’s the second 50bp cut in a row they’ve delivered, but they sounded more cautious about future cuts, saying in their statement that “we will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time.” That saw the 10yr Canadian yield move +6.7bps higher to 3.08%.

Meanwhile in Germany, the election process started to get under way yesterday, as Chancellor Scholz requested a confidence vote next Monday in the Bundestag. It follows the collapse of the federal coalition last month, when Scholz sacked the finance minister Christian Lindner, who leads the FDP. Once the government loses the vote of no confidence, Scholz can then request an election from the President, which is planned for February 23.

Overnight in Asia, those strong gains on Wall Street have continued across the board, with global markets hopeful about another Fed rate cut. Most of the major indices have posted a decent gain, including the Nikkei (+1.28%), the Hang Seng (+1.31%), the CSI 300 (+0.59%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.50%) and the KOSPI (+1.22%). The only notable exception to that is Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (-0.28%), which follows a very strong employment report for November that’s led markets to dial back the likelihood of rate cuts from the RBA. It showed the unemployment rate unexpectedly falling to 3.9% (vs. 4.2% expected), and Australia’s government bond yield is up +8.0bps overnight in response, and the Australian Dollar has strengthened by +0.73% against the US Dollar. Looking forward, US equity futures are pointing a bit lower this morning, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.13%, whilst the 10yr Treasury (+1.2bps) is up to 4.28% overnight.

Separately in the FX space, yesterday saw the Japanese yen weaken after Bloomberg reported that Bank of Japan officials saw little cost of waiting to hike rates. The report suggested that even if they waited until January or longer, they only saw a low risk of inflation overshooting. Following the report, investors further dialled back the likelihood of a December rate hike, and the Japanese Yen ended the session -0.32% weaker against the US Dollar, where it remains unchanged this morning. In the meantime, China’s offshore yuan weakened -0.29% yesterday, which followed a Reuters report that policymakers were considering allowing the currency to depreciate as a response to any trade war with the US.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the ECB’s latest policy decision, along with President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. In terms of data, we’ll also get the US PPI for November and the weekly initial jobless claims.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 08:13

Goldman Finds Walmart Maintains Lead In Value Pricing War

Analysts at Goldman analyzed prices across 38 grocery items in the dairy, frozen goods, dry grocery, HPC, and produce categories at Kroger, Albertsons (Randalls banner), Walmart, Sprouts Farmers Market, Whole Foods, and Dollar General to determine which retailers provide the best value for consumers. 

Goldman analysts led by Leah Jordan found that Walmart continued to offer the best all-around grocery deals for cash-strapped consumers.

"WMT had the lowest prices at -11.2% vs. the group average (narrowed from -12.7% last month), followed by DG at -5.6% (vs -3.8% last month). ACI had the highest prices in the group at +9.7%, followed by WFM at +7.3%. KR had the highest SKU availability for the products surveyed at 38, followed by WMT at 37," Jordan said. 

... and the lowest prices in most categories: 

"WMT had the lowest prices in dairy products (-10.3%), frozen foods (-14.2%), dry grocery (-11.7%), and produce (-18.2%), while DG had the lowest prices in HPC (-14.3%). On the other hand, ACI had the highest prices in dairy products (+4.9%), HPC (+5.3%), and produce (+15.7%), while DG had the highest prices in frozen foods (+14.6%). Additionally, SFM had the highest prices in dry grocery (+8.7%), although we note a limited SKU count." 

The analysts noted that since the last price check in November, the "basket was relatively stable m/m as increases in produce and dairy were largely offset by decreases in HPC and frozen foods," adding, "By retailer, we observed the most sequential increases from KR and ACI with 3 out of 5 categories and the most sequential decreases from KR, ACI, and WMT with 2 out of 5 categories." 

For much of the year, Walmart and Dollar General lead all other retailers versus the group average in offering the best deals. 

Here are all 38 SKUs analyzed by the analysts. 

Grocery Pricing Survey

Grocery Pricing Survey - Variance vs. Group Average

Walmart reigns supreme nationwide in offering cash-strapped consumers the best deals (read here & here) amid persistent inflation and high interest rates, which continue to financially strain working-poor households.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 07:45

ECB Preview And Cheat Sheet: How To Trade The 4th Rate Cut

Submitted by Newsquawk

• ECB policy announcement due Thursday December 12th; rate decision at 13:15GMT/08:15EST, press conference from 13:45GMT/08:45EST
• Expectations are for the ECB to cut the Deposit Rate by 25bps to 3.00%
• The backdrop of the meeting comes amid a highly uncertain growth outlook for the Eurozone

OVERVIEW: The ECB is expected to follow up the October rate cut with another 25bps reduction, its 4th rate cut in a row, disappointing some of those looking for a deeper cut of 50bps on account of ongoing growth concerns. The ECB will most likely maintain a gradual approach to rate cuts with accompanying macro projections potentially set to not fully reflect recent negative events in the Eurozone. If the GC surprises markets by going for 50bps it will be a highly pre-emptive move and a step away from data-dependency. In order to get a consensus for such a move, the doves will need to convince the hawks that this is not a precursor for a move into sub-neutral territory.

PRIOR MEETING: As expected, the ECB opted to cut the Deposit Rate by 25bps. Despite the bank seemingly positioning itself for an unchanged rate in the wake of the September meeting, soft outturns for inflation and survey data forced the hand of the Bank into easing policy. Accordingly, the ECB reaffirmed its data-dependent credentials and reiterated that it will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary. The only minor tweak in the policy statement was that the Bank now sees inflation at 2% in the course of 2025 vs. previous guidance of H2 2025. At the follow-up press conference, Lagarde noted that there will be a lot more data available before the December 12th meeting, which suggests that there is not a preset expectation on the GC over what happens at the final meeting of the year. Furthermore, Lagarde stated that she has not opened the door to another rate reduction in December. That being said, she noted that there is no question that policy is currently restrictive. With regards to the decision, the President noted that it was a unanimous one on the GC.

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS: On the inflation front, headline Y/Y CPI rose in November to 2.3% from 2.0%, which was largely expected on account of base effects. Core inflation remained at a stubborn level of 2.7% whilst services inflation ticked marginally lower to 3.9% from 4.0%. The ECB's Consumer Expectations Survey saw the 12-month inflation forecast rise to 2.5% from 2.4% with the 3yr forecast holding steady at 2.1%. The 5y5y inflation forward has pulled back to 2.00% from the 2.14% seen at the time of the last meeting. On the growth front, Q3 GDP came in at 0.4% Q/Q, whilst the November Eurozone Composite PMI slipped to 48.1 from 50.0 amid heavy pessimism surrounding the French economy. The accompanying release noted "the eurozone's manufacturing sector is sinking deeper into recession, and now the services sector is starting to struggle after two months of marginal growth." In the labor market, the unemployment rate remains at a historic low of 6.3%.

RECENT COMMUNICATIONS: Since the prior meeting, President Lagarde has noted that the medium-term economic outlook is uncertain and therefore the Bank is not pre-committing to a particular rate path. Chief Economist Lane said while inflation had fallen close to the ECB’s target of 2%, there is a little bit of distance to go. He added that while data dependence falls down in priority, the new challenge would be assessing the incoming risks on a meeting-by-meeting basis, via FT. The influential Schnabel of Germany has stated that she sees only limited room for additional cuts, adding that the ECB should take a gradual approach and not go to an accommodative stance. In the hawkish camp, Austria's Holzmann has said that a 25bps rate cut is conceivable in December but not more. Interestingly, the typically centrist Villeroy of France said interest rates should clearly go to the neutral rate and would not exclude going below the neutral rate in the future. He added that negative rates should remain in the ECB’s toolkit. Elsewhere, Italy’s Panetta has said that the ECB should move to a neutral monetary stance, or expansionary if necessary, adding that the ECB is still a long way away from neutral.

RATES/ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS: Expectations are for the ECB to cut the deposit rate by 25bps to 3.0% with markets assigning a circa 82% chance of such an outcome (with an 18% probability for a 50bps rate cut). Despite the weak growth outlook for the Eurozone, which is also complicated by Trump’s return to the White House, developments on the inflation front suggest there is still more work done to return inflation to target. In recent weeks, policymakers have also stressed the need for the Bank to step away from recent data dependency and focus on forward-looking expectations. On which, the accompanying macro projections are likely to be viewed as stale given that the cut-off date did not encapsulate the latest French political woes, whilst as highlighted by ING, “the ECB normally also applies a ‘no policy change’ assumption to its forecasting". ING expects projections to be little changed vs. September (other than a slight downward revision for growth and inflation in 2025). As such, those on the GC looking for a 50bps cut are unlikely to be supported by the latest forecasts. If the GC surprises markets by going for 50bps it will be a highly pre-emptive move and a step away from data- dependency. In order to get a consensus for such a move, the doves will need to convince the hawks that this is not a precursor for a move into sub-neutral territory. Looking beyond the upcoming meeting, assuming the ECB cuts by 25bps, an additional 125bps of loosening is seen by the end of 2025.

Current forecasts:

• HICP INFLATION: 2024: 2.5%, 2025: 2.2%. 2026: 1.9%
• HICP CORE INFLATION (EX-ENERGY & FOOD): 2024: 2 9%, 2025: 2.3%, 2026: 2.0%
• GDP: 2024: 0.8%, 2025: 1.3%, 2026: 1.5%

* * *

How to trade today's ECB rate cut?

Here is Bloomberg's Vassilis Karamanis explaining why "Euro Traders Brace For Risk In Lagarde Guidance"

Options traders see the euro moving by the most since May 2023 on the day of a European Central Bank meeting, even amid market consensus on the policy decision. It’s mostly about forward-guidance expectations and a new FX volatility environment that’s been shaping up since the US elections.

Euro-dollar overnight volatility rises to 16.56%, the fifth highest reading in the past 19 months, pointing to a potentially game-changing moment for investors. Money markets fully price a quarter-point interest rate cut by the ECB later Thursday, assigning next to zero chances of a larger cut.

The updated inflation and growth projections are one part of the uncertainty surrounding the decision. The biggest surprise would of course come from a jumbo rate cut, but it’s mostly down to what President Christine Lagarde will offer to the market in terms of verbal projections.

Questions include whether the central bank sticks to restrictive-rates language and delivers a modest hawkish surprise, or if officials are comfortable in communicating that a move below neutral levels is on the cards by the summer of 2025. Traders may be also looking for clear guidance on what the ECB has in store in case of a global trade war or should political risks in the euro area’s largest economies spill over to spreads.

Lagarde has been careful in maintaining full flexibility during the press conferences that follow a policy decision, sporadically offering only subtle messaging on the Governing Council’s thinking for the next move. While options pricing points to chances that today’s messaging could be more revealing, high euro hedging costs also reflect the shaping up of expectations for higher volatility next year.

Chances of a global trade war, lingering geopolitical risks and diverging inflation paths for the world’s largest economies — and in turn monetary policy, make the case for long-volatility exposure in the currency space which is seen once again as a strong alpha-generating asset class. Interbank traders say that positioning is now much lighter in the euro, as many desks have trimmed exposure ahead of year-end, and that leaves room for a wide move, even if it all goes according to consensus.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 07:35

Albertsons Says It Is Ending Merger Agreement With Kroger

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Albertsons said on Dec. 11 it is ending its merger agreement with Kroger.

Albertsons said that Kroger breached the agreement the companies had reached, including by not cooperating with Albertsons.

Shoppers walk outside an Albertsons grocery store, in a file photograph. Ethan Miller/Getty Images

“Rather than fulfill its contractual obligations to ensure that the merger succeeded, Kroger acted in its own financial self-interest, repeatedly providing insufficient divestiture proposals that ignored regulators’ concerns,” Tom Moriarty, Albertsons’ general counsel, said in a statement.

A Kroger spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email, “Albertsons’ claims are baseless and without merit.”

Albertsons filed a lawsuit under seal with the Delaware Chancery Court outlining its allegations against Kroger.

The proposed merger had been blocked on Tuesday by multiple judges, which found that if the merger went through, it would have anti-competitive effects.

“On balance, the Court finds that both qualitative and quantitative evidence shows that defendants engage in substantial head-to-head competition and the proposed merger would remove that competition,” Oregon District Judge Adrienne Nelson, one of the judges, said in an order. “As a result, the proposed merger is likely to lead to unilateral competitive effects and is presumptively unlawful.”

Kroger’s faults included providing insufficient documents outlining divestiture plans that ignored regulators’ concerns, according to Moriarty.

“We are disappointed that the opportunity to realize the significant benefits of the merger has been lost on account of Kroger’s willfully deficient approach to securing regulatory clearance,” he said.

The Kroger spokesperson said the allegations are not true.

“This is clearly an attempt to deflect responsibility following Kroger’s written notification of Albertsons’ multiple breaches of the agreement, and to seek payment of the merger’s break fee, to which they are not entitled,” the spokesperson said.

“Kroger looks forward to responding to these baseless claims in court. We went to extraordinary lengths to uphold the merger agreement throughout the entirety of the regulatory process and the facts will make that abundantly clear.”

Albertsons operates more than 2,200 stores across 34 states, with banners including Safeway and Acme. Kroger operates 2,750 grocery stores under various banners such as Ralphs and Harris Teeter.

Kroger reported $150 billion in revenue in 2023, while Albertsons reported $79.2 billion.

Sam Dorman contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 07:20

Mark Zuckerberg's Meta Gives Eye-Popping $1 Million To Trump's Inaugural Fund

The Wall Street Journal reports that Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, donated $1 million to President-elect Donald Trump's inaugural fund - something neither Meta nor Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg did for Trump's inaugural fund in 2017 or President Biden's in 2021.

The million-dollar donation comes two weeks after Zuckerberg dined with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago club in South Florida, bringing the Facebook founder and the former president closer in what was once a fraught relationship.

One person familiar with the donation said Zuckerberg's team spoke with the inaugural fund before the Mar-a-Lago club dinner, adding that the social media billionaire has told business leaders that he is optimistic about a Trump presidency. 

At last month's dinner, Stephen Miller, appointed deputy chief of staff for Trump's second term, told Fox News that Zuckerberg had "made clear that he wants to support the national renewal of America under Trump's leadership."

Trump's choice of Brendan Carr to lead the Federal Communications Commission has frightened the federal government for their collusion with Big Tech, partisan' fact checkers,' and an aptly named 'advertising cartel' to censor, de-monetize, and otherwise silence divergent opinions - particularly those which shed light on things like government malfeasance, bullshit wars, Covid origins, and cronyism.

In August, Zuckerberg sent a letter to Congress claiming that the Biden administration in 2021 "repeatedly pressured our teams for months to censor certain Covid content, including humor and satire."

This was around the time Trump warned Zuckerberg and anyone else who illegally interfered in the election would be jailed for life if he won the presidency. 

As for Zuckerberg, he's now 40, and his change of politics must come with age... 

Winston Churchill is often credited with saying that if "you're not a liberal when you're 25, you have no heart. If you're not a conservative by the time you're 35, you have no brain."

Welcome to 40, Zuck. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 06:55

India Preparing For A CBDC-Driven Economy, Central Bank Governor Says

Authored by Arijit Sarkar via CoinTelegraph.com,

On his last day as the governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Shaktikanta Das shared his vision to transform India’s economy with a home-grown central bank digital currency (CBDC), the digital rupee.

During the farewell speech on Dec. 10, Das highlighted his six-year-long effort to capitalize on new technologies, including setting up the RBI Innovation Hub in Bengaluru and a regulatory sandbox for fintech innovation.

Speaking about India’s progress in CBDC development, Das noted that many central banks worldwide are stuck in initial discussions and experimentation.

On the other hand, he said, “RBI, among the central banks, is a pioneer,” as it is one of the few central banks to launch a pilot CBDC project.

Press conference by Shaktikanta Das, governor of the Reserve Bank of India. Source: Reserve Bank of India

Indian CBDC could permanently replace the paper-based economy

Das expressed optimism about the future of CBDCs in the Indian economy as he left office:

“As I see it, CBDC has a huge potential in the coming years, in the future. In fact, it is the future of currency.”

Source: Shaktikanta Das

In November, the RBI sought to add new trading partners in Asia and the Middle East to expand its cross-border payments platform for instant settlements. 

India should not rush to implement a CBDC

A related Bloomberg report suggested that India was exploring the use of CBDCs as its primary settlement mechanism for the payments platform, which is currently operational in Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Nepal. 

Previously, Das had advised against implementing a “system-wide CBDC” rollout without understanding the technology’s potential impact on users and India’s monetary policy.

“Such understanding would emerge from the generation of user data in pilots. The actual introduction of CBDC can be phased in gradually,” Das said. 

Still, he had expressed confidence in CBDC’s potential to “underpin the payment systems of the future,” both for domestic and cross-border payments.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 06:30

Wind Power Has Hit Its Limits In Europe

Europe is starting to reach its limit when it comes to wind power.

Countries like Denmark and Sweden, once leaders in expanding offshore wind capacity, are now hitting obstacles as power prices and incentives fall too low to support new projects, according to Bloomberg.

A recent Danish auction for offshore wind saw no bids, highlighting the issue. This slowdown in wind development risks prolonging reliance on fossil fuels, as rising costs challenge the sector's earlier success in driving down prices.

Denmark, which generated a world-leading 58% of its electricity from wind last year, saw no bids in its largest-ever offshore wind tender. Companies like state-owned Ørsted A/S cited unattractive investment conditions, with low electricity prices driven by an oversupply of wind power.

The Bloomberg report says that Sweden faces similar challenges, as years of rapid wind expansion have depressed returns, discouraging new projects. Delays and cancellations of green industrial projects in the north further cloud future demand.

The UK’s goal to phase out fossil fuels by 2030 will require a major shift in power consumption to align with renewable energy's fluctuating supply, says the grid operator. Currently, record amounts of wind power are wasted due to grid limitations.

Unlike coal and gas plants, wind farms operate whenever conditions allow, often resulting in excess supply and even negative power prices.

While solar faces similar issues, falling panel costs have lessened the impact. The wind sector, however, is grappling with rising costs for materials like steel and labor. Encouraging consumers to adjust demand—especially with electrification of transport, heating, and industry—could stabilize prices and drive investment in clean energy.

Brian Vad Mathiesen, a professor at Aalborg University in Denmark, commented: “We cannot have an electricity system that’s based solely on wind and solar. There are stark technical and economic limits to how much we can integrate into the grid.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 04:15

MP Calls For UK Government To Embrace Muslim Culture Of Inbreeding

Third-world immigration has led to some unsettling culture shocks over the last decade for Europeans and the population of the UK.  The rise in violent crime and rape incidents due to migrants is well documented in Europe.  The cultural "sharing" has been running rampant and finally the truth is starting to come out. 

In Germany, statistics show that in 2023 41% of all crime was linked to foreign suspects (migrants), while 75% of all victims were native German citizens.  In 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron admitted that around half of all crime in Paris was committed by foreigners. His claim was backed by data from the police headquarters and the ministerial statistical service for internal security, which showed that 70% of violent robberies and 75% of thefts in Paris in 2022 were committed by foreigners. 

Sweden's massive spike in violent crime runs exactly parallel to their open borders policy and the rise in migrants from the third world.  Over 20% of the nation's population is now made up of foreigners.  Migrant gangs spread across Sweden and in 2022 Primer Minister Magdalena Andersson admitted that "integration had failed". 

The list goes on and on.  In the UK, such data is generally suppressed and the government refuses to acknowledge the relationship between increasing migration from certain cultures and the spike in criminal violence.  So much so that British officials are ordering the arrest of anyone who complains about the issue on social media. 

It's not just the rise in crime that's the problem; there's also the imposition of disturbing cultural habits that the western world widely abandoned decades ago.  Inbreeding is just one of these habits - It was made predominantly illegal in the western world once genetic factors were understood, but it might make a comeback as mass immigration changes the demographic landscape.   

UK MP Iqbal Mohamed argued this week that the government needs to stop legislation banning cousin marriages because they are common in Muslim culture and because a ban would be "stigmatizing":

“Instead of stigmatising those in cousin marriages or those inclined to be, a much more positive approach would be to facilitate advanced genetic test screening for prospective married couples, as is the case in all Arab countries in the Persian Gulf, and more generally to run health education programmes targeting those communities where the practice is most common."

“I would therefore urge the House to vote against this motion and find a more positive approach to addressing the issues that are caused by first-cousin marriages, including the health risks and the consequences of modern conflicts and displacement of population around the world.”

  

The MP did acknowledge that the practice leads to a litany of health problems and recommended a "screening process", but he did not specify what problems are commonly associated with consanguineous marriage.  Inbreeding is a plague within Muslim populations, with some Muslim nations containing genetic anomalies in the majority of their people.  In Pakistan, for example, over 70% of marriages involved genetically related partners (usually between first or second cousins). 

Inbreeding, especially over the course of multiple generations, causes a number of genetic mutations including  the HTR2B Q20 mutation.  This mutation has been linked to loss of impulse control, extreme violence and psychopathy.  In other words, cultures that practice inbreeding as a norm are far more inclined to violent behaviors the west often associates with the worst kinds of criminals.    

Keeping it "in the family" is preferred in Muslin society as a means to maintain generational wealth, but also as a form of suppression for women.  In Sweden the practice is about to be banned due to health concerns, but also due to arranged marriages (forced marriages) and the use of women as bartering property.  UK legislators have been working for years to make cousin marriages illegal, but consistently face opposition.

The UK government is perhaps the most blatant villain today when it comes to the forced multiculturalism agenda.  Their open hostility towards the native western public is becoming legendary.  Their policies require adaptation on the part of native residents rather than integration on the part of migrants.  In other words, the UK argues that it is up to the native public to embrace the ideologies and habits of incoming migrants, and if they don't, they could be accused of bigotry (which can now lead to fines and prison time). 

But isn't it correct to admonish cultural practices that lead to destructive behaviors?  Maybe some cultures are simply wrong.  Maybe some traditions should not be welcomed.  Maybe western culture is in many ways superior, and perhaps it's time for the third world to adapt to western values rather the west taking a step backwards into the dark ages?  Or. maybe the two cultures should stay away from each other?  The multicultural experiment has obviously failed - Why continue pretending like it has inherent value?

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 02:45

Germany Is An Economic Model For What Not To Do

Authored by Rainer Zitelmann via RealClearMarkets.com.,

Many Germans liked to see their country as a global leader in the fight against climate change. Despite Germany being responsible for only 1.5 percent of man-made CO2 emissions worldwide, advocates for climate action argued that Germany could serve as a role model for other nations. These self-appointed “saviors of the world” believed that if Germany led the way, others would soon follow.

But it would now seem that Germany has become more of an anti-role model than a role model. Germany’s economic situation is getting worse every month. Growth is lower than in almost any other OECD country.

BASF, once the largest chemical company in the world, is cutting thousands of jobs in Germany and redirecting several billion euros of investment to China. Germany's largest steel manufacturer, ThyssenKrupp, last week announced plans to cut 11,000 jobs. The company had received two billion euros in subsidies on condition that it transition to producing “green steel” using hydrogen, which is totally uneconomical. BASF and ThyssenKrupp both cited Germany’s exorbitant energy prices and gargantuan bureaucracy as reasons for their decisions.

There has been a significant increase in the number of companies filing for insolvency. The current rate is 66 percent higher than the average for the month of October in the years 2016 to 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to a study conducted by EY, fewer and fewer foreign companies want to invest in Germany. The number of foreign direct investment (FDI) greenfield and expansion projects in Germany has decreased by 12 percent compared to the previous year. This marks the sixth consecutive decline and the lowest level of investment activity since 2013.

EY identified Germany’s energy policy as a major deterrent for industrial investors. The combination of a recessionary environment, high energy prices, and uncertainties surrounding energy supply are all highlighted as key factors, along with high labor costs and bureaucratic complexities, all of which serve to further discourage foreign investors.

Estimates of the total costs of the German climate transition vary between 1.8 trillion euros (ifo Institute) and 6 trillion euros (McKinsey). But the indirect costs are even higher. A key component of German and European climate policy is the “mobility transition,” which entails a mandated shift towards e-mobility. The EU has banned the registration of cars with combustion engines from 2035. Consequently, the German automotive industry has been plunged into a severe crisis. Volkswagen has announced plans to lay off tens of thousands of employees and close multiple plants in Germany. Major automotive suppliers such as ZF, Continental, and Bosch have also announced tens of thousands of redundancies.

The German automotive industry, once a global leader that the whole world looked up to with admiration, has become a basket case. The heart of the German economy is stuttering.

Housing construction in Germany has also slumped dramatically. On the one hand, the number of immigrants arriving in Germany keeps on rising, while on the other, less and less new housing is being built. There are 20,000 building regulations and countless rules that have made building more ‘climate-friendly’ and far too expensive.

The origins of Germany’s current economic woes can be traced back to the administration of Angela Merkel, rather than Olaf Scholz’s recently collapsed government. The economic situation in Germany was good not because of, but in spite of her policies. She benefited from the market reforms and tax cuts implemented by her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder. Merkel not only failed to introduce any new reforms during her time in office, she instead exacerbated existing problems, particularly in the realm of energy policy. As was noted here five years ago, Germany’s energy policy is the dumbest energy policy in the world.

The battle against climate change is often cited as the number one objective of our day and age, the one paramount issue that should guide all political decision-making. However, Germany’s decision to shut down its nuclear power plants has led the country to rely on imported nuclear power and electricity from coal-fired power plants overseas. And, despite banning fracking domestically, Germany continues to import LNG gas produced through fracking from the United States. An irrational policy riddled with contradictions.

Is Germany at least the world champion in climate protection? No, Germany holds a respectable third place in the Environmental Performance Index, but in the category of climate protection, of all things, it only comes in seventh place (Great Britain is in fifth place).

Germany wanted to be world champion not only in climate policy, but also in migration and social policy. But the combination of generous social benefits and open borders has not worked.

Today, 64 percent of those on welfare, known as Bürgergeld (“citizen’s income”) have a migration background. The social system is overloaded, crime is rising sharply.

Instead of being a role model for the rest of the world in climate policy and migration policy, as many German politicians had hoped, Germany has now become a cautionary tale. Once again, the model of a planned economy has failed: In a market economy, it is the companies, and ultimately the consumers, who decide what is produced. In contrast, in a planned economy, decisions are made by politicians who believe they know better than millions of entrepreneurs and consumers. In this respect, the rest of the world can learn something from Germany, namely a lesson in what not to do.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/12/2024 - 02:00

When Rights Become Privileges: Is The Constitution Becoming Optional?

Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

“Rights aren’t rights if someone can take them away. They’re privileges. That’s all we’ve ever had in this country is a ‘Bill of Temporary Privileges.’ And if you read the news, even badly, you know that the list gets shorter and shorter.”

- George Carlin

Disguising its power grabs in the self-righteous fervor of national security, the Deep State has mastered the art of the bait-and-switch.

It works like this: first, the government foments fear about some crisis or threat to national security, then they capitalize on it by seizing greater power and using those powers against the American people.

We’ve seen this play out over and over again.

The government used its so-called War on Terror to transform itself into a police state.

Then the police state used its War on COVID-19 to claim lockdown powers.

All indications are that the government’s promised War on Illegal Immigration will be yet another sleight of hand that allows the powers-that-be to engage in greater power grabs while weakening the Constitution.

Therein lies the danger of the government’s growing addiction to power.

Whatever dangerous practices you allow the government to carry out now—whether it’s in the name of national security or protecting America’s borders or making America healthy again—inevitably, these same practices can and will be used against you when the government decides to set its sights on you.

The slippery slope that starts with illegal immigration has all the makings of a thinly veiled plot to empower the government to become the arbiter of who is deserving of rights and who isn’t.

That quickly, we could find ourselves navigating a world in which the rights enshrined in the Constitution for all persons living in the United States are transformed into privileges enjoyed only by those whom the government chooses to recognize as legitimate.

By persuading the public that non-citizens, particularly illegal immigrants, do not enjoy the same inalienable rights as law-abiding citizens (a fact refuted by the Constitution and every credible legal scholar in the country), the Deep State is leading us down a road in which all rights are transitory.

This is how you establish a hierarchy of rights, contingent on whether you belong to a favored political class.

Be warned.

At such a time as the government is emboldened to flip that switch and appoint itself the ultimate authority on which protected class of individuals gets to enjoy the rights enshrined within the Constitution, the dividing line will not be between legal citizens and illegal immigrants.

It will not even be between Republicans and Democrats.

Rather, the purpose of that line of demarcation will be to distinguish the compliant, obedient, subservient vassal of the American police state (the so-called Loyalists) from everyone else.

We’re almost at that point now.

This is how tyranny rises and freedom falls.

Here are some of the inherent dangers in allowing the government to become the arbiter of who is deserving of rights:

It leads to the erosion of universal rights. The Bill of Rights was designed to protect the fundamental rights of all persons within the United States, regardless of their citizenship status, race, religion, or any other factor. When the government starts making distinctions about who is entitled to these rights, it undermines the universality that makes them so powerful. This creates a slippery slope where rights become privileges, subject to the whims of those in power.

It gives rise to authoritarianism. History is replete with examples of governments that consolidated power by first stripping away the rights of marginalized groups. Once the principle of universal rights is breached, it becomes easier to target other groups deemed “undesirable” or “unworthy.” This paves the way for authoritarianism, where the government dictates who enjoys freedom and who does not.

It creates a two-tiered society. A hierarchy of rights inevitably leads to a two-tiered society, where some individuals enjoy full protection under the law while others are relegated to second-class status. This fosters resentment, division, and social unrest. It also creates a vulnerable population that can be easily exploited and abused.

It undermines the rule of law. The rule of law is a fundamental principle of a just society. It means that everyone is subject to the same laws and that no one is above the law. When the government selectively applies the law based on arbitrary criteria, it undermines the rule of law and erodes trust in the legal system.

It chills free speech and dissent, i.e., the right to criticize the government. When people fear that their rights are contingent on their political views or social status, they are less likely to speak out against injustice or challenge the government. This chilling effect on dissent stifles free speech and creates a climate of fear and conformity.

It contributes to the loss of moral authority. A nation that claims to champion liberty and justice for all loses its moral authority when it denies those principles to certain groups within its borders. This undermines its standing in the world and diminishes its ability to promote human rights abroad.

Remember, the erosion of inalienable rights often starts subtly, with the government chipping away at the edges of those rights for specific groups.

The pattern is subtle at first, with government officials exploiting fear and prejudice in order to target groups that are already marginalized or perceived as “outsiders.” Incrementally, the net is cast wider and wider, so that by the time the injustice is widespread enough to inspire outrage in the greater populace, it’s too late to resist.

Historic examples abound of how the government has manufactured a blatantly unjust hierarchy of rights in order to diminish certain segments of society. These run the gamut from slavery and the persecution of Native Americans to the Japanese internment camps and segregation.

More recently, we’ve seen this tactic deployed in order to justify policies that run afoul of the Constitution, ranging from immigration policies and mass surveillance programs to SWAT team raids, voting rights, and the erosion of due process.

Clearly, Martin Niemöller’s warning about the widening net that ensnares us all, a warning issued in response to the threat posed by Nazi Germany’s fascist regime, still applies.

“First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a trade unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.”

This is how the slippery slope to all-out persecution starts.

It doesn’t help that growing numbers of American citizens barely know their rights. Consider that only 5% of the U.S. adults surveyed could correctly name all five rights in the First Amendment, 20% could not correctly name any, and less than one in 10 Americans know they have a right to petition the government.

Such civic illiteracy lays the groundwork for all manner of tyrannies to follow. After all, how can you defend your rights if you don’t know what those rights are?

Then again, civic illiteracy among government officials, who are entrusted with upholding and protecting the Constitution, doesn’t appear to be much better.

It was ten years ago on December 15, National Bill of Rights Day, that the U.S. Supreme Court in its 8-1 ruling in Heien v. State of North Carolina gave police in America one more ready excuse to routinely violate the laws of the land, this time under the guise of ignorance.

The Heien case, which started with an improper traffic stop based on a police officer’s ignorance of the law and ended with an unlawful search, seizure and arrest, was supposed to ensure that ignorance of the law did not become a ready excuse for government officials to routinely violate the law.

It failed to do so.

In failing to enforce the Constitution, the Court gave police the go-ahead to justify a laundry list of misconduct, from police shootings of unarmed citizens to SWAT team raids, roadside strip searches, and the tasering of vulnerable individuals with paltry excuses such as “they looked suspicious” and “she wouldn’t obey our orders.”

Ignorance of the law has become an all-too-convenient cover for all manner of abuses by government officials who should know better.

I’m not sure which is worse: government officials who know nothing about the laws they have sworn to uphold, support and defend, or a constitutionally illiterate citizenry so clueless about their rights that they don’t even know when those rights are being violated.

This much I do know, however: for anyone to advocate terminating or suspending the Constitution is tantamount to a declaration of war against the founding principles of our representative government and the rule of law.

If there is one point on which there should be no political parsing, no legal jockeying, and no disagreement, it is this.

Then again, as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, one could well make the case that the Constitution has already been terminated after years on life support, given the extent to which the safeguards enshrined in the Bill of Rights—adopted 233 years ago as a means of protecting the people against government overreach and abuse—have been steadily chipped away at, undermined, eroded, whittled down, and generally discarded with the support of Congress, the White House, and the courts.

History provides chilling examples of how quickly rights can vanish, even in a nation such as ours founded on the principles of freedom. As George Carlin astutely observed:

“If you think you do have rights, next time you’re at the computer, get on the internet, go to Wikipedia. When you get to Wikipedia, in the search field for Wikipedia, I want you to type in ‘Japanese Americans 1942’ and you’ll find out all about your precious … rights. In 1942, there were 110,000 Japanese American citizens in good standing, law-abiding people, who were thrown into internment camps simply because their parents were born in the wrong country. That’s all they did wrong. They had no right to a lawyer, no right to a fair trial, no right to a jury of their peers, no right to due process of any kind. The only right they had: ‘right this way’ into the internment camps. Just when these American citizens needed their rights the most, their government took them away. And rights aren’t rights if someone can take them away.”

Remember you were warned, folks.

At the point that rights become privileges, then the Constitution and the government’s adherence to the rule of law will become optional.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/11/2024 - 23:25

Damascus Airport To Open In 'Next Few Days' But Israel Still Controls Skies

The government of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Damascus on Wednesday said that it expects Damascus International Airport to reopen within days, which would be a surprising and unexpected development.

It had been closed since the dramatic events of HTS-led forces entering the capital, and Assad and his top officials fleeing the country. The airport's director Anis Fallouh said it will reopen "in the next few days" - according to the AFP.

Via AFP

"God willing, the airport will reopen as quickly as possible because we are going to work flat out," Fallouh said. "We can quickly resume flights through Syrian airspace."

For now, however, it seems unrealistic that any flights will land or take off from the airport given that Israeli warplanes have been bombing the country non-stop for at least 72 hours. This has included the targeting of at least 350 Syrian Army sites, as well as facilities for the production of chemical weapons.

With Israeli warplanes roaming the skies, commercial flight travel over Syria remains highly dangerous. There's also the fact that the various al-Qaeda factions now in control of Syria have gained access to at least some of Syria's remnant anti-aircraft missile arsenal, such as MANPADS.

There have also long-been NATO-supplied shoulder-fired missiles all around Syria, supplied to the 'rebels'. Below appears to be evidence of this...

NATO bonanza!https://t.co/p5ScKQOFel

— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) December 10, 2024

Only Cham Wings, a private Syrian airline and Syrian Air, the country's national airline, had been continuing to operate up to the dramatic events of the last ten days. 

But Al Jazeera has noted of the status of these defunct airlines, "Aircraft maintenance official Samer Radi said there were currently 12 aircraft on the ground, one of which had been stripped of its equipment by looters during the takeover by opposition forces."

It's unclear whether these carriers will be reestablished, or a timeline for potential operations. At this moment the country and population are also starved of fuel, after days ago an Iranian tanker en route to Syria turned around as it became clear the Assad government was in collapse.

Before the war, British Airways and Emirates had frequent flights to and from Damascus. But immense hurdles remain in what is still basically a war zone and questions over the fact that a US-designated terror organization is now running the show in Damascus.

The HTS jihadists who seized control of Aleppo International #Airport have reportedly destroyed all whiskey and alcohol bottles in its duty-free zone. It seems that the enforcement of Sharia law has already begun in #Aleppo. pic.twitter.com/81lxrz0b1O

— Greco-Levantines World Wide (@GrecoLevantines) December 2, 2024

"So far, the operations of Syrian Air have been extremely restricted," explained one industry analyst. "Everybody would want to reopen flights into Damascus, which obviously is a significant destination for the Gulf."

"Airlines will have to individually go and do a damage assessment, a liability assessment and a review of what's happened, what's workable, what's permissible, as well as what's functioning and what is not," the analyst continued.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/11/2024 - 23:00

What's (State-Funded) Russian Media Saying About Syria's Regime Change?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

Publicly financed Russian media’s reaction to Syria’s regime change is a lot different than most could have expected after they earlier warned that this could lead to an unprecedented terrorist crisis.

Those concerns were warranted since Turkish-backed Harat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is designated as a terrorist group and was originally part of Al Qaeda. Nevertheless, these outlets’ reactions have been surprisingly calm, thus suggesting a desire to play everything by ear for the sake of retaining Russian influence there.

RT published two very thought-provoking op-eds since the Syrian Arab Army’s (SAA) epic collapse and Assad’s cowardly flight from Damascus that are worth reviewing in this context. The first is by Murad Sadygzade, who’s President of the Middle East Studies Center and Visiting Lecturer at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, and answers the question of “Why did Syria fall so fast and what happens next?” He began by drawing attention to foreign meddling but then dove into domestic details.

This approach is noteworthy since it had hitherto been very rare for publicly financed Russian media to talk about the Assad Government’s many shortcomings, but Sadygzade candidly addressed them:

“A key turning point came when Assad lost the support of even those who had stood by him for years. Economic hardships, sanctions, and a growing sense of hopelessness led many to believe that change was inevitable, even if it came at the cost of destruction. The strategic mistake of the ruling elite – betting on a military solution to the conflict while ignoring political dialogue, both domestically and internationally – ultimately left Assad vulnerable to determined and well-organized adversaries.”

The second RT op-ed is a republication of an article by Gazeta.ru political analyst Vitaly Ryumshin under the title “Assad’s collapse was coming – everyone just looked away”. Here are the highlights:

“Assad’s Syria had been rotting from within for years. The country was locked in a perpetual humanitarian and economic crisis, with 90% of Syrians living in poverty and widespread malnutrition. Desperate families took out loans just to buy food but couldn’t pay them back. Power outages crippled even Damascus, sometimes leaving the capital dark for 20 hours a day. Electricity prices soared by up to 585% in the spring of 2024 alone, pushing an already destitute population deeper into despair.

The Assad government offered no solutions – only mounting repression. Under crushing sanctions, Damascus couldn’t secure foreign loans, and with its oil fields under US-Kurdish control, there was nothing left to trade. Even Syria’s illicit drug trade, once a lifeline, couldn’t plug the gaping holes in state finances. Profits disappeared into the pockets of warlords and traffickers, not the state treasury.

Meanwhile, Assad’s underpaid, demoralized army, bled dry by years of civil war, continued to disintegrate. For a time, Iranian proxies like Hezbollah propped up his forces, but by 2024, they’d shifted their attention to fighting Israel. Attempts to draw Russia further into Syria’s quagmire fell flat. Moscow, busy elsewhere, had no interest in bailing Assad out.”

Ryumshin also twice referred to the Assad Government as a “regime” in back-to-back sentences, writing that “In the south and southeast, dormant rebel cells rose up, striking a final blow against Assad’s hollowed-out regime. On Sunday, opposition forces stormed Damascus from several directions. Bashar al-Assad, whose regime withstood over a decade of civil war, finally fell from power.” It’s a stunning change in RT’s editorial policy that they didn’t replace that previously taboo word before republishing.

Perhaps they listened to what their senior correspondent and veteran Syrian War journalist Murad Gazdiev told them in an interview, where he concluded that “Assad’s govt fell due to corruption, lack of organization, and motivation”. He has a decade worth of experience covering this conflict so his post-mortem on Assad’s Government should be taken very seriously. Publicly financed TASS also editorialized the word “regime” into a headline about Syria on Tuesday in a related visible change of policy.

The day prior, they described HTS’ chief as an “armed opposition leader” without referencing the US’ $10 million bounty on his head for terrorist-related crimes or even his connection to such groups. TASS also reported how “Syrian Embassy operating as usual under new flag”, which implies Moscow’s tacit (key qualifier) acceptance of this regime change in the sense of continuing to recognize those Syrian diplomats as official representatives of the new ruling arrangement who are allowed to keep working.

Their press review of Vedomosti’s article about the future of Russia’s military bases in Syria adds context to why that tacit acceptance appears to have been made. Ibragim Ibragimov, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told them that “I don’t exclude that a new format of military-technical cooperation will appear soon and that Russian military instructors will play a role in establishing a new Syrian army.” That would be an intriguing turn of events.

It might not be as far-fetched as some think provided that there’s political will and the right conditions to make it work, the latter of which would require the non-terrorist anti-government opposition (NTAGO) to separate itself from terrorist-designated groups and figures. Moreover, such groups and figures would have to prove that they’ve changed their ways, just like the Taliban have sought to do since returning to power in mid-2021 to regain Russia’s trust and try to have restrictions on cooperation with them lifted.

To that end, meaningful progress on implementing UNSC Resolution 2254 from December 2015 would go a long way, which Assad refused to do for reasons beyond the scope of this analysis. The Russian-written draft constitution that was unveiled during the first Astana Summit in January 2017 could also be revived to serve as a model for the constitutional reform that this resolution obligates Syria to undertake. Assad had unofficially rubbished it due to the concessions that he was asked to make.

Judging by what the head of the Syrian armed opposition delegation to the Astana talks told Sputnik and the president of the Syrian Negotiation Commission told RT, these two internationally recognized NTAGO platforms want to retain positive relations with Russia. That could explain why the leader of the new interim Syrian government, Mohammed al-Bashir, was described by TASS as someone who “joined anti-government armed units supported by foreign funding” instead of the previously typical foreign proxy.

Reflecting on publicly financed Russian media’s reports about Syria’s regime change, it therefore appears as though the Kremlin signaled to those outlets within its “sphere of influence” to withhold publishing worst-case scenario forecasts for now while their country’s diplomats try to avert an even worse crisis. The worst might still be yet to come, but it hasn’t yet unfolded and might still be prevented, hence the importance of them remaining calm and reciprocating the new ruling arrangement’s positive messages.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/11/2024 - 21:45

Eric Trump: My Father Wants To Make U.S. The World's 'Crypto Capital'

Eric Trump, Executive Vice President of the Trump Organization, discussed President-elect Donald Trump's plans for the crypto industry, emphasizing his father's vision for the U.S. to become the “crypto capital of the world” during an interview with CNBC. 

ERIC TRUMP: I've been in crypto for a long time and so is my father, and I think he realizes that every country in the world is embracing it. People are running—look at where we are right now in Abu Dhabi. They're putting billions of dollars into crypto, into digital technologies. If we don't do it as America, we're going to be left behind. He wants to make America the crypto capital of the world. He's been very, very clear with that, and I applaud that.

Listen, right now, if you live in America and want to get a home loan, it takes you 90 days. How the hell does it take 90 days to get a home loan? By then, the house is already sold. Your dream is gone. There’s zero chance you’re getting it. There is nothing on blockchain that can't be done better, faster, and substantially cheaper—not pushing paper. The banking system we have around the world, the modern banking system, is antiquated. It's antiquated, and it's just a matter of time before crypto not only catches up but really leaps ahead.

We’re incredibly excited on a lot of fronts, and I think America will be the crypto capital of the world. I fully support it, my father fully supports it, and our family fully embraces it. We believe in DeFi.  We believe that's the way of the future. America better lead the way; otherwise, we're going to leave a lot behind.

DAN MURPHY: All of this also comes back to regulation as well, and one thing your father has spoken about is incorporating new legislation, even deregulation, in the crypto space to really accelerate and move this forward. What does that look like?

ERIC TRUMP: It's transparent, that's what it is. The people in the crypto industry are frustrated that no one's ever put together a sensible plan as to how to regulate an industry. They're fine with regulation, but they just want guidelines, and they've said that. The problem is, you see so many companies have been so unfairly treated—so many lawsuits, hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars, people attacked, companies attacked—and they're just saying, "Just give us the rules of the road, and we'll obey them."

And by the way, if you give us the rules of the road, chances are the rest of the world will follow. So I think sensible regulation makes a lot of sense. A lot of people think the crypto industry doesn't want regulation, but that's actually not true. They just want sensible regulation—regulation that they can follow, regulation that's crystal clear, that's black and white.

They don't want to see people like Gensler, who was absolutely a disaster for crypto. He did everything he could to try and stifle innovation. He would do so, and those people have all been cleared out. I think they will put together good regulation. I think we will have a clear roadmap, and hopefully, the rest of the world follows that. Hopefully, we can lead by example because that's what we should do as Americans. Hopefully, we truly are the crypto superpower of the world.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/11/2024 - 21:20

The Lithium Glut Could Persist Until 2027

Authored by Tsvetana Parskova via OilPrice.com,

• Lithium prices have dropped sharply, prompting production curtailments in Australia and China but not in Africa, where Chinese-owned mines maintain output.

• The global lithium market remains oversupplied, with UBS forecasting imbalances until at least 2027 despite recent production cuts.

• China's strategic focus on EVs and low-cost lithium ensures continued mining, while a potential restocking phase could eventually boost prices.

This year’s plunge in lithium prices has forced curtailments in production in China and Western Australia as lithium miners look to limit losses and reduce the oversupply hanging over the market and prices. 

However, the lithium glut has not gone away and the market could remain oversupplied until 2027, analysts say. 

One of the reasons for a persistent glut could be the fact that while producers in Australia and, to some extent, in China, are curtailing output and delaying project ramp-ups, lithium mines in Africa owned by Chinese battery makers are not reducing supply. 

The mines, especially those in Zimbabwe, continue to operate as Chinese battery makers continue mining operations to have low-cost lithium supply and maintain market share, industry insiders and analysts have told Reuters. 

As a result, the market will continue to be oversupplied for the next two years, and not find balance until 2027, according to UBS. 

The bank still expects lithium supply to have increased by 25% this year and to rise by 15% next year, according to its estimates cited by Reuters.

The supply boost is expected despite the recent curtailments at lithium mines in Australia.

Global lithium miners have moved to curtail production and shrink their workforce—at least until market conditions improve.

Last month, Australian miner Mineral Resources said it was shutting down its Bald Hill lithium mine amid a crash in lithium prices in another project curtailment in the industry.

The low lithium prices have hit other producers and projects, too.

Australia’s Liontown Resources said it would reduce production from its Kathleen Valley lithium project, “to prioritise higher margin ore at reduced costs to adapt to the low-price lithium environment.”

Pilbara Minerals has also announced a suspension of a lithium processing plant in Western Australia.

The world’s largest lithium producer, North Carolina-based Albemarle, booked a net loss of $1.1 billion for the third quarter amid lower pricing in the lithium value chain.

As part of measures to reduce costs and operations, Albemarle will be reducing its global workforce by an expected 6-7% and is slashing its 2025 capital expenditures by around 50% versus 2024 to an anticipated range of $800 million to $900 million.

The reduction in some Chinese lithium supply is being replaced by output in Africa, which is serving the growing Chinese market, Albemarle’s chief commercial officer, Eric Norris, said on the company’s Q3 earnings call last month.

“It is a fragmented market. It is a market with significant Chinese presence today. And it's a market where you have a lot of young companies whose sole reason for existing is to raise a lithium project,” Norris said, commenting on why more supply hasn’t been curtailed.

It could take longer for this market to rebalance, he added. 

Many mines supplying Chinese battery makers wouldn’t close amid the price plunge because they are integrated into downstream supply chains, analysts told Reuters.  

EV manufacturing and sales is a strategic priority for China’s government, which would like to have cheap lithium supply flowing.  

And China’s electric vehicle sales are surging. November marked the fifth consecutive month in which battery electric vehicles and plug-in vehicles outsold gasoline passenger cars.

China’s most recent rebound in demand has pushed local lithium prices higher. But the fundamentals of the global lithium market haven’t changed much—supply continues to outpace demand, setting the stage for at least another year of oversupply and depressed prices, analysts say.

However, an expected phase of restocking of processed lithium for batteries could rebalance the market faster, according to Will Adams, head of base metals research at Fastmarkets, a commodity price reporting agency.

“We’re probably going to be stepping in and out of deficits for a while, but as the deficits get closer, look out for the restocking phase as that can really give prices a boost,” Adams said on a recent webinar on the global outlook for the battery raw materials market in 2025. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/11/2024 - 20:55

Russians Urged To Avoid US Travel On Fears Of Arrest Or Being 'Lured' By CIA

In yet another diplomatic tit-for-tat move as relations with Washington spiral, Russia has warned its citizens to avoid all travel to the United States, saying they could face arrest.

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova laid out in a briefing Wednesday that "Traveling to the United States privately or on official business is fraught with serious risks."

Via Associated Press

While it at first sounds like Moscow is doing a bit of trolling here, the Kremlin seems genuinely concerned over individual Russians being contacted or "lured" by US intelligence operatives.

Zakharova continued, "In this regard, we urge [Russians] to avoid non-emergency travel to the U.S. and its allied satellite states, including primarily Canada and, with a few exceptions, EU countries, for these upcoming holidays and in the future."

While the message raised the possibility of potential prosecution from US authorities, she also emphasized the following:

"Our compatriots have long been hunted in the direct sense of the word by U.S. intelligence services," she said.

And more:

Russians already in the U.S. should avoid situations where they could become "victims of provocations" and face arrest under the pretext of violating local laws. 

“If the attention shown to Russian citizens by Americans is becoming suspicious and intrusive, it may make sense to cut off these contacts and reconsider travel plans,” she said.

Interestingly, orchestrating 'provocations' is precisely what the State Department has long accused Russia of doing with Americans traveling in Russia, with the most famous recent case being the imprisonment of Brittney Griner (later released in a prison swap with Victor Bout).

The US Embassy in Moscow has in turned warned all US citizens that arbitrary detention could come if they travel through Russia. This has tensions have sourced between the two countries since the Feb. 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/11/2024 - 20:30

DHS Announces New Rule To Allow Noncitizen Workers To Keep Jobs Longer While Awaiting Renewals

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Homeland Security this week announced a new rule making it easier and more reliable for certain noncitizen workers to keep their jobs while waiting for their work permit renewals to be processed.

Starting Jan. 13, eligible applicants who file for their employment authorization documents (EADs) on time will automatically have their work authorization extended for up to 540 days, nearly three times longer than the previous 180-day maximum.

The change will retroactively apply to applications filed on or after May 4, 2022, the agency said.

DHS said the need for the rule change is “clear” as the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), the agency in charge of processing these requests, “received and processed a record number of EAD applications this year.”

This permanent change is expected to help workers avoid forced job breaks caused by processing delays and give employers more certainty when planning their staffing needs, DHS said in announcing the changes on Dec. 10.

Federal officials say this decision is a direct response to business communities that have called for more efficient ways to keep valued employees on the job.

“Increasing the automatic extension period for certain employment authorization documents will help eliminate red tape that burdens employers, ensure hundreds of thousands of individuals eligible for employment can continue to contribute to our communities, and further strengthen our nation’s robust economy,” Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas said in a statement.

For many applicants, navigating the work permit renewal process can be challenging, DHS said.

Lengthy waits sometimes force employers to temporarily lose trained staff while applications wind through the system. USCIS has taken steps to reduce wait times to address this, the announcement said.

“USCIS is committed to reducing unnecessary barriers and burdens in the immigration system to support our nation’s economy,” said USCIS Director Ur M. Jaddou.

“This final rule will help U.S. employers better retain their workers and help prevent workers with timely-filed EAD renewal applications from experiencing lapses in their employment authorization and employment authorization documentation through no fault of their own.”

DHS said the new rule will ensure a more stable employment environment for everyone involved.

The move is part of a broader push to streamline the immigration system and bolster the nation’s economy, DHS said.

Other efforts to cut processing times include extending validity periods from two to five years in some cases, improving how refugee permits are handled, and offering easier online filing options, the agency said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/11/2024 - 20:05

Exxon Plans Large Nat Gas Plants To Supply Electricity To Data Centers

It isn't just nuclear projects getting in on the "selling power to data centers" trend - now oil supermajor Exxon is joining the trend. 

In fact, Exxon is planning a large natural gas-powered plant to supply electricity directly to data centers, incorporating technology to capture over 90% of its carbon emissions, according to the New York Times.

This would be Exxon’s first power plant not dedicated to its own operations. Carbon capture systems remain rare and costly, despite federal subsidies, limiting their broader adoption.

CEO Darren Woods said this week: “There are very few opportunities in the short term to power those data centers and do it in a way that at the same time minimizes, if not completely eliminates, the emissions."

Exxon exec Dan Ammann added: “We’re being driven by the market demand here. It’s low carbon, it’s available on an accelerated timeline and it avoids all the grid interconnection challenges.”

Tech giants are increasingly willing to pay extra for reliable clean energy, including nuclear power. Here are Zero Hedge we spent most of 2024 documenting numerous tech giants like Google, Meta and Microsoft all inking deals with nuclear power generators to secure data center power in the future.

The New York Times adds that Exxon, having secured land and engaged potential customers, plans to launch its gas-powered plant within five years—faster than building new nuclear reactors.

Uniquely, the plant would operate off-grid, avoiding lengthy grid connection delays. This move highlights how the growth of data centers and AI is transforming the energy sector, pushing Exxon into a business it once avoided.

Chevron could be next, too. Its CEO Mike Wirth predicts off-grid power projects will become more common, and Exxon is exploring similar ventures, aiming to launch a gas-powered plant with carbon capture technology.

Exxon plans to spend $30 billion over six years on emission reduction and alternative energy while expanding oil and gas production. The company sees growing electricity demand from data centers as an opportunity to enter the power business, leveraging its expertise in carbon management and pipeline networks.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/11/2024 - 19:40

The Wild World Of Democratic Ethics: Defeated Representative Accused Of Gaetz Leak

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

“You must be wary of those seeking to use their influence and their expertise to wrongful ends.”

Those words were spoken at the George Washington Law School commencement ceremony two years ago by the recently defeated Rep. Susan Wild (D., Pa.).

This week, the words took on a new meaning after Wild was accused of leaking information from the House Ethics Committee. Wild embodies a party that is in an ethical and political free fall this month.

 If news reports are accurate, Wild appears to have given our students a curious ethical lesson in how not to be a lawyer or legislator.

Wild was fighting to release the report of the investigation into former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R., Fla.).

When Gaetz decided to withdraw from Congress, the report was not released. That is when details from the committee were leaked to the media, and the press reported that “two sources said Wild ultimately acknowledged to the panel that she had leaked information.”

Keep in mind that this is the House Ethics Committee, and she is a member. She is also a member of Congress who took an oath as part of the panel’s rules that “I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will not disclose, to any person or entity outside the Committee on Ethics, any information received in the course of my service with the Committee, except as authorized by the Committee or in accordance with its rules.”

Wild herself has not publicly confirmed or denied the alleged leaking of the information.

If the reports are true, Wild knowingly violated an oath that she took not to release information from the Ethics Committee because she was unhappy with losing votes on the release of information.

Her office seems to have shrugged off media inquiries.

As in the past controversy, Wild has avoided public comment on the report that she was the leaker.

This controversy speaks to more than one unethical former representative. This month, we have seen Democrats line up to support one of the most unethical and abusive uses of presidential pardon power in history. President Biden not only pardoned his son but pardoned him for any crimes over a decade, including some that many felt implicated President Biden himself.

The President issued the pardon after repeatedly lying to the public when he was a candidate that he would never do so. In the previous election, Biden lied to the public about not having met Hunter Biden’s clients or having knowledge of his dealings in the influence-peddling scandal.

Biden’s lack of ethics surprised no one. However, even today, the support that he received from Democratic leaders over the pardon has been shocking. Sen. Dick Durbin (D., Ill.), chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee and Senate majority whip, even called it a “labor of love.”

Indeed, much of the corruption in Washington is a labor of love, from nepotism to influence peddling to corrupt pardons. Indeed, faced with overwhelming opposition of the public to the Biden pardon, Democratic members look like the comical choreography of “Prisoners of Love” from the movie The Producers. (“Oh, you can lock us up and lose the key; But hearts in love are always free!”).

The distorted view of ethics in the Democratic Party was vividly on display during an embarrassing moment recently at the White House when Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre claimed that a poll showed “64% of the American people agree with the pardon — 64% of the American people. So, we get a sense of where the American people are on this.”

That poll actually showed the majority of Americans opposed the pardon.

Yet, it was 64 percent of Democrats who favored a president giving his own son a pardon.

It is all about the ends rather than the means in today’s politics of rage.

The 2022 words of Wild were particularly poignant because they were used as part of a false attack made by Wild at my own school. In a speech to the law students on living an ethical life as a lawyer, Wild accused me of testifying falsely in the Trump impeachment that only criminal acts are impeachable after saying the opposite in my testimony in the Clinton impeachment.

The only problem is that Wild’s statement was demonstrably and undeniably false. I testified in both the Clinton and Trump impeachments that an impeachable offense need not be an actual crime.  Ironically, Wild’s own Democratic colleagues and later the House managers in the Senate Trump trial repeatedly cited my testimony on that very point.

None of this matters in the Wild world of Democratic ethics. It is very simple. Whatever Democrats are attempting cannot be “wrongful ends.” More importantly, it is the ends, not the means, that are the measure of ethics. Since they are only fighting for what is right, the ends justify the means from cleansing ballots of Republicans (including Trump) to supporting a massive censorship system to ignoring court decisions to count invalid votes.

It is the same sense of ethics that led someone at the Supreme Court to leak a draft of the Dobbs decision.

Even though the leak shattered court ethical rules and traditions, the leaker was lionized by many on the left.

For years, the “by any means necessary” wing has dominated the Democratic Party. Ironically, the collapsing of the party’s credibility with the public has left little to show beyond a litany of unethical means used to achieve unrealized ends.

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University. He is the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/11/2024 - 19:15