US Allies Loudly Reject Trump's Scheme To Blockade Hormuz: 'Not Getting Dragged In'

The United Kingdom and several other countries rejected Washington's plan to impose a blockade on Iranian ports and target ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which has gone into effect Monday.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer made clear his stance that "we are not supporting the blockade" in a fresh interview with BBC Radio. He emphasized that the UK is not "getting dragged in" to the US-Israeli war against Iran, but still stated that it's "vital that we get the strait open and fully open."

US Navy file image

As fully expected Spain's government also condemned the US move, with the country's Defense Minister Margarita Robles having said, "It's just another episode in this downward spiral we've slipped into," adding that Trump and Netanyahu "want to impose rules on the international community, which is illogical."

Earlier we reported that France is working with the UK on a conference to organize a "strictly defensive" and "peaceful" mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

President Emmanuel Macron said, "As regards the Strait of Hormuz, in the coming days, together with the UK, we will organize a conference with those countries prepared to contribute alongside us to a peaceful multinational mission aimed at restoring freedom of navigation in the strait." He added, "This strictly defensive mission, separate from the warring parties to the conflict, is intended to be deployed as soon as circumstances permit."

Still, Paris has rejected a US request to join a military coalition to forcibly reopen the strait, essentially paralleling Britain's position.

At the same time Germany has not weighed in strongly one way or the other. A German government statement has said that "The US military's announcement did not mention a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but rather a blockade of Iranian ports – that is a different approach."

Meanwhile, Turkey has strongly opposed the blockade and called for renewed diplomacy, while China too is warning against escalation and urged stability.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced it would begin a blockade "of all maritime traffic entering and exiting" Iranian ports starting at 10:00am Eastern Time on Monday.

//--> //--> //--> Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Yes 9% · No 92%
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It added, "The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports."

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 10:45

Key Events This Week: PPI, Industrial Production, Q1 Earnings, Iran War

When it comes to the week ahead, clearly the Iran conflict will be the main focus, but there are a few other things to look out on the calendar.

First, the Q1 earnings season will start to kick off, with this week’s releases including several US financials. DB's equity strategists have a full preview, and they argue that the bottom up-analyst consensus for S&P 500 earnings growth accelerating into the mid-teens (16%) is justified by a favorable macro environment (full preview here). They expect growth to come in even stronger at 19%, with growth broadening across sectors, albeit clearly led by megacap growth and tech, along with the financials. In terms of this week’s releases, we’ll hear from Goldman Sachs today, BlackRock, JPMorgan and Citigroup on Tuesday, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday, and Netflix on Thursday.

Otherwise, we have a few more data releases this week that will give us a fuller picture of how the global economy performed in Q1.

In the US, this week’s highlights include the PPI inflation reading, and economists expect there to be strong gains, echoing the uptick in the CPI last Friday. So for headline PPI, DB is looking for a monthly print of +1.0%, which would be the strongest since March 2022. And as ever, the focus will be on those components of the PPI that feed into core PCE, which is closely followed by the Fed.

A key highlight will be China’s Q1 GDP growth, with DB’s economists expecting that to come in at +4.6% on a year-on-year basis. 

On the policy side, the focus will be on Washington DC, as the Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank are taking place over this week. So we’ll be hearing from a lot of officials around those events, including ECB President Lagarde and BoE Governor Bailey. Moreover, we’ll also get the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook tomorrow, and this week will be the last chance to hear from Federal Reserve officials, as their blackout period ahead of the April meeting begins on Saturday.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday April 13

• Data: US March existing home sales, Canada February building permits
• Central banks: Fed’s Miran speaks, ECB’s Guindos speaks, BoJ’s Ueda speaks
• Earnings: Goldman Sachs
• Other: The Spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank, through April 18

Tuesday April 14

• Data: US March PPI, NFIB small business optimism, China March trade balance, Japan February capacity utilisation
• Central banks: Fed's Goolsbee, Barr, Paulson, Collins and Barkin speak, ECB’s Lagarde, Lane and Makhlouf speak, BoE's Bailey, Mann and Greene speak
• Earnings: JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Blackrock
• Other: IMF’s World Economic Outlook

Wednesday April 15

• Data: US April Empire manufacturing index, NAHB housing market index, March import price index, export price index, February total net TIC flows, Japan February core machine orders, Italy February general government debt, Canada February manufacturing sales
• Central banks: Fed’s Beige Book, Fed's Bowman and Barr speak, ECB's Escriva, Schnabel and Villeroy speak, BoE's Bailey speaks
• Earnings: ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley

Thursday April 16

• Data: US April New York Fed services business activity, Philadelphia Fed business outlook, March industrial production, capacity utilisation, initial jobless claims, China Q1 GDP, March retail sales, industrial production, home prices, investment, UK February monthly GDP, Canada March existing home sales, Australia March labour force survey
• Central banks: ECB’s account of the March meeting, Fed's Williams and Miran speak, ECB's Schnabel, Kazaks, Rehn, Kocher, Radev, Villeroy and Lane speaks, BoE's Taylor speaks
• Earnings: TSMC, Netflix, PepsiCo, Abbott Laboratories, Charles Schwab, Bank of New York Mellon, Tesco

Friday April 17

• Data: Italy February trade balance, current account balance, ECB February current account, Eurozone February trade balance, Canada March housing starts, February international securities transactions
• Central banks: Fed’s Barkin and Waller speak
• Earnings: Ericsson

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the PPI on Tuesday and the industrial production report on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including events with Governor Miran on Monday, Governor Barr on Tuesday, New York Fed President Williams on Thursday, and Governor Waller on Friday. 

Monday, April 13 

• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, March (GS -1.5%, consensus -0.8%, last +1.7%)
• 06:20 PM Fed Governor Miran speaks: Fed Governor Stephen Miran will participate in a moderated conversation at the Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century in Washington DC. Q&A is expected. On March 30, Miran said, "I think that [the funds rate] could be about a point easier, gradually done over the course of a year."

Tuesday, April 14 

• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, March (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.1%, last +0.7%); PPI ex-food and energy, March (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.5%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, March (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%):
• 12:15 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak at the Semafor World Economy Summit in Washington DC. Q&A is expected. On April 3, Goolsbee said, “Before the war, before we got the oil shock, I'd been on the optimistic side on rates. I believed rates could come down even multiple times in 2026, [but the energy shock] complicates that picture for me. If we're truly not going to see any improvement in inflation, to me that starts pushing these decisions off to 2027 at the earliest.”
• 12:45 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak on rural economic development at the Strengthening America's Economy through Rural Investment forum in Washington DC. Speech text is expected. On March 26, Barr said, “Given the considerable uncertainty about the potential effects of developments in the Middle East on our economy, as well as the other factors I mentioned, it makes sense to take some time to assess conditions.” He added, “Our current policy stance puts us in a good place to hold steady while we evaluate incoming data, the evolving forecast, and the balance of risks.”
• 01:00 PM Fed Governor Barr, Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter), Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC non-voter), and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (FOMC voter) speak: Fed Governor Michael Barr will moderate a fireside chat on strengthening America's economy through rural investment with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson in Washington DC. On March 27, Barkin said, “With risks to both the labor market and inflation, and the outlook foggy, it felt prudent to hold rates and await more clarity on how we should be leaning to best support the economy going forward.” On the same day, Paulson said, “If inflation were at the 2% target, I would feel more comfortable being patient, keeping monetary policy on ‌hold and waiting to see if a hypothetical growth surge puts upward pressure on inflation. But if inflation is above 2 percent and has been for some time, I would be more cautious… I would be inclined to weight the possibility of overheating more heavily in determining appropriate policy.”

Wednesday, April 15 

• 08:30 AM Import price index, March (consensus +2.2%, last +1.3%): Export price index, March (consensus 1.7%, last +1.5%)
• 08:30 AM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will participate in a conversation on consumer compliance supervision and regulation at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition Just Economy Conference in Washington DC.
• 01:45 PM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will participate in a conversation on banking regulation at the Institute of International Finance Global Outlook Forum in Washington DC.
• 02:00 PM Fed releases Beige book, April meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the March FOMC meeting period noted that overall economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace in seven of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, with two Districts reporting no change and three reporting a modest decline. In this month’s Beige Book, we will look for anecdotes related to how firms are responding to the conflict in the Middle East, the evolution of labor demand, and firms’ expectations of activity growth for the remainder of the year.

Thursday, April 16 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 11 (GS 215k, consensus 214k, last 219k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 4 (consensus 1,805k, last 1,794k)
• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, April (GS 10.0, consensus 10.0, last 18.1): 08:35 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will give keynote remarks at the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On March 30, Williams said, “The conflict in the Middle East could result in a large supply shock with pronounced effects that simultaneously raises inflation.” He added, “This is an unusual set of circumstances, but the current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to balance the risks to our maximum employment and price stability goals.”
• 09:15 AM Industrial production, March (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last +0.2%): Manufacturing production, March (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last +0.2%); Capacity utilization, March (GS 76.3%, consensus 76.3%, last 76.3%): We estimate industrial production was unchanged in March, reflecting strong natural gas production but weak auto production. We estimate capacity utilization was unchanged at 76.3%.
• 10:35 AM Fed Governor Miran speaks: Fed Governor Stephen Miran will participate in a conversation on global macroeconomics at the Washington Economic Festival in Washington DC.

Friday, April 17 

• There are no major data releases scheduled. 
• 12:15 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will speak on the economic outlook at the Citadel Directors Institute in Charleston, SC. Q&A is expected.
• 02:00 PM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will deliver the David Kaserman Memorial Lecture on the economic outlook at Auburn University. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On March 20, Waller said, “If things go reasonably well and the labor market continues to be weak, I would start advocating again for cutting the policy rate later this year.”

Soruce: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 10:35

Master And Commander-In-Chief

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

April – 2026. The IRGC is master of the Strait of Hormuz. Only the American fleet stands before them. Oceans are now battlefields.

Financial markets are back in a risk-off mood today following news over the weekend that US-Iran peace talks ended without agreement and a statement by CENTCOM that the United States will be initiating its own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz from today. President Trump took to Truth Social to say that he has instructed US forces to “interdict” every vessel in international waters that had paid a toll to Iran, while also threatening that any Iranian who fires upon US or peaceful vessels will be “blown to hell”.

10-year bond yields in Australia and New Zealand have leapt 6-7bps in early trade, Asian equities have opened mostly lower, US equity futures are pointing toward losses of around 1%, and front-month Brent crude futures are up by almost 8% to $102.69/bbl. Brent crude for immediate delivery closed down almost $6 at $125.88/bbl on Friday, but is sure to jump today as the market contemplates the loss of Iranian export volumes and a potential re-start of the war.

The US Dollar spot index is trading firmer this morning and both the CAD and NOK are holding up comparatively well as markets again countenance higher-for-longer energy prices. The Euro is 0.32% lower early in the Asian session despite news over the weekend that Peter Magyar’s comparatively pro-EU Tisza party has comprehensively defeated incumbent Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party – securing a two-thirds majority in the 199 seat parliament.

While moves on the Bloomberg screen this morning are not particularly suggestive of massive dislocations underway, the implications of the weekend’s events are potentially much more serious than the price action is letting on.

RaboResearch’s Global Strategist Michael Every writes:

When Trump first threatened Greenland, we argued Europe’s inability to resist such a US advance underlined its decline since 1956’s Suez Crisis, at US hands, first revealed that European powers were no longer ‘Great’. The Greenland episode made the EU look like the Egypt of 1956.

When this Iran War loomed, we asked if the US was still the same Power as in 1956 or had also slid to become like then UK/France, with markets (or countries) able to force it into retreat. We underlined repeatedly that this outcome, which some wrongly saw as a market-friendly TACO, would open a Pandora’s Box for western assets as the foundation of US hegemony on which they are built crumbles.

For that reason, we argued the US would continue to escalate to try to deescalate on its terms, especially as the recent ceasefire had left Iran in control of its enriched uranium and control of the Strait of Hormuz – an intolerable situation. Indeed, we also made clear that things would get worse, geopolitically, before they got better – which naturally risked that we just went ‘off the cliff’ instead.

On Saturday, the collapse in peace talks over the nuclear, Hormuz, and Iran proxy issues revealed that the gulf between the parties to negotiation is as wide as the Persian Gulf through which very little energy, fertiliser, sulphur, or helium is currently flowing.

In response, and in addition to the 50% tariff announced last week against states arming Iran, Trump announced renewed sanctions vs Iranian oil at sea and against any country paying a toll to Iran to get energy. He also played his ‘trump’ card of a US naval blockade of Hormuz to take effect from 10am EST today. Having sent two Arleigh Burke destroyers through the Strait over the weekend, the US will now begin actions to clear any marine mines, thereby removing a key obstacle to the resumption of commercial shipping that Iran claims it has no capacity to remove itself.

The US blockade isn’t aimed at stopping GCC energy and goods flowing, which they aren’t anyway, but will stop Iran exporting energy, or importing food, industrial parts, or weaponry by sea. The economic impact will be enormous, and in around 13 days, Iranian oil storage will be full, forcing well shut-ins and risking permanent supply-side damage. The political goal is clear: force the Iranian regime faction negotiating with the US to destroy those which oppose the US peace deal; and/or incentivise the Iranian population to rise up against the regime again.

Yet the loss of another 2m Iranian barrels of oil a day is a huge blow to the world economy. In that, the US geopolitical goals are: (1) to get reluctant allies to step up and help reopen Hormuz by force; and (2) to force China to step in and help lean on Tehran to submit. (Recall our 2026 financial markets outlook in October 2025, ‘Who has the cards?’, argued the US ace in this realpolitik poker was to use its global military reach to disrupt upstream commodity supply chains heading to rivals and take control of energy – a hand it already played early in 2026 in Venezuela.)

On one hand, US escalation might work. Yet unless Iran were to crumble quickly, the prospect is of an even deeper global energy crisis ahead first. Indeed, de-mining Hormuz, to say nothing of dealing with drone and missile attacks, could take many weeks (faster with allies like Japan, for instance) when the energy damage being done already risks becoming exponential daily.

Yet Iran can also escalate. If they force a ship through the blockade or fire at the US, the current ceasefire breaks down and war is back. Moreover, despite reticence to act so far, the Iran-proxy Houthis could block the key Bab-el-Mandeb chokepoint and perhaps the entire Red Sea. That would risk stripping out another 7m barrels a day of Saudi oil flows, making everything exponentially worse.

Moreover, other parties can escalate. US allies could walk away from Trump at an even higher economic and geopolitical price (on the latter, the US approach is clearly, ‘To the winner the spoils, to the spoilers, no wins). China could use economic coercion on US supply chains; or send an oil tanker through Hormuz, thereby risking blowing up US-China relations or forcing the US to ‘blink’ on the blockade; and some sources allege, it is sending military aid, which USTR Greer has said would make the upcoming Xi-Trump talks aimed at trade detente more difficult.

As such, the US Hormuz blockade is short term bullish for energy prices, bearish for world growth and, at worst, risks questions moving from ‘1956?’ to ‘1962?’, which is when we saw the US-USSR Cuban Missile Crisis. Again any TACO from there would merely take us back to 1956, which is not anywhere a rules-based order in reality underpinned by US military power arguably needs to be. Our base case Hormuz scenario (an end to hostilities by mid April and slow re-opening of the Strait thereafter) is hanging on by its finger nails for now, but may soon need to be revised in a more bearish direction.

Ironically, in the weekend’s Hungarian election result Brussels and EU capitals may see parallels to 1956’s Hungarian Uprising. Magyar’s defeat of Orban potentially removes a major internal obstacle to EU efforts to deal with the conflux of geopolitical and geoeconomic crises plaguing it. That said, Magyar is hardly a Eurocrat. Like Orban, he too is socially conservative, anti-immigration, and sceptical of Ukraine. Further EU-Budapest tensions may yet lie ahead, while Czechia and Slovakia are still Orban-esque in their own right.

Prior to jetting off to Islamabad for the Iran negotiations, US Vice President Vance had been in Hungary to support Orban’s campaign for re-election. The election outcome also shows – once again – that a muscular ‘America First’ message doesn’t sell well outside of the US. That doesn’t mean the policy stops: it just risks more global fragmentation. Allies are already souring on US links and – in some cases (Canada and Spain, for example) – contemplating deeper engagement with the US main strategic rival: China.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 10:20

Existing US Home Sales Plunged In March, Despite Falling Mortgage Rates

Affordability-aiding lower mortgage rates battled a sentiment-sapping surge in geopolitical panic in March, with analysts expecting the latter to outweigh the former with a modest 0.7% MoM decline (after January's plunged - weather? - and February's modest rebound).

The analysts under-estimated the fear from war-mongering as existing home sales plunged 3.6% MoM (down bigly from an upwardly revised 2.7% MoM jump in Feb). That is the second biggest drop in existing home sales since Nov 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

That dragged Existing Home Sale SAAR back below 4 million homes (3.98m to be exact), near the lowest level since Lehman...

Source: Bloomberg

The NAR report showed the median selling price rose 1.4% from a year earlier in March, to $408,800.

Source: Bloomberg

Pushing Existing (Used) House prices back above New House Prices...

The inventory of previously owned homes edged up to a four-month high but remains historically depressed.

Source: Bloomberg

Contract signings declined across all  regions, according to the NAR.

Sales in the Northeast slid to the lowest on record in data going back to 1999, while those in the Midwest matched the weakest pace since 2011.

The NAR also slashed its 2026 existing-home sales forecast to 4%, from 14% previously.

“Mortgage rates have been rising, and that has led us to trim our home sales outlook for the year,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

It appears home sales front-ran the rise in mortgage rates since the war began.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 10:09

Congress Returns From Recess - Here's What's On Its To-Do List

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

Lawmakers will return to Capitol Hill this week with a long to-do list as the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) remains in a partial shutdown.

Ending that shutdown—which as of April 13 reached its 58th day—will be a top priority for lawmakers, even as they remain divided along party lines on how to move forward with the funding.

Lawmakers will also work on reauthorizing Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), a controversial surveillance law that includes the collection of American citizens’ personal data which is set to expire on April 20.

They'll also consider a budget request from the White House raising the Pentagon’s budget to $1.5 trillion—by far the largest military budget ever requested.

Here’s what to know.

DHS Funding

Congress’s No. 1 priority will be to find a way forward as DHS remains shut down—though at present, a compromise still seems distant as the two chambers remain at odds on how to move forward.

Democrats have demanded significant reforms to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and parts of Customs and Border Patrol (CBP)—both subsidiaries of DHS—in exchange for supporting new funding for the department. They have tied these demands to the fatal shootings of Alex Pretti and Nicole Renée Good in Minneapolis during altercations with immigration enforcement agents.

Republicans have rejected parts of these demands, particularly a proposed prohibition on agents wearing masks while in the field, citing the need to protect officers from being doxed by activists.

Some House Republicans have also pushed for the passage of the Safeguarding American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, a voting bill, as a condition of any reforms to ICE and CBP. However, Senate Democrats have consistently opposed the bill, which doesn’t seem to have a clear path forward in Congress.

Before leaving for the spring recess, the Senate passed a bill that would have fully funded DHS with the exception of ICE and CBP, whose immigration enforcement operations have already been funded through September 2029 by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) rejected this deal as a “joke.” Instead, the House passed a 60-day stopgap that would have fully funded DHS. That bill has been rejected by Senate Democrats for its lack of reforms.

Ahead of Congress’s recess, President Donald Trump signed an executive order granting full pay to agents of the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), whose increasing employee absences had led to record-breaking security queues at airports across the country.

FISA Section 702

Another top priority for lawmakers will be passing a reauthorization of Section 702 of FISA, a surveillance law that’s due to expire on April 20.

On March 25, Trump—a former critic of Section 702—requested that Congress pass a “clean” reauthorization of the law.

“I have called for a clean 18-month extension,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.

Section 702 targets intelligence from foreign nationals thought to be outside the United States. Yet, it also enables intelligence agencies to gather “incidental” information from Americans who are in contact with targeted non-U.S. persons—all without a warrant.

Although intelligence officials must obtain a warrant to access Americans’ data directly, Section 702 has long caused bipartisan discomfort on Capitol Hill and beyond.

Previously, Congress had approved a two-year extension of the program with 56 major reforms designed primarily to prevent misuse of Americans’ data by agents with access to Section 702 data. It was signed into law by former President Joe Biden in April 2024.

Trump acknowledged his previous opposition to—and run-ins with—Section 702.

Nevertheless, Trump said, “When used properly, FISA is an effective tool to keep Americans safe.”

Trump’s $1.5 Billion Pentagon Budget Request

Another top issue for lawmakers this week will be Trump’s request for a $1.5 trillion military budget—the largest increase in military spending since World War 2.

In the April 3 budget proposal, the White House formally requested the historic Pentagon budget increase, though the amount had been floated by Trump for weeks.

The proposal suggests that this amount could be passed through a two-track process.

The bulk of the funding, $1.1 trillion, would be passed through the normal appropriations process. This amount could likely pass easily, as it’s aligned with the gradual increases seen over recent years.

The second track in the White House proposal would come through a $350 billion reconciliation package—allowing Republicans to bypass a filibuster from Senate Democrats entirely.

It would fund this in part, the proposal states, through a $73 billion reduction in non-defense spending,

White House Office of Management and the Budget Director Russ Vought is scheduled to testify before the House Budget Committee on April 15, and to testify before its Senate counterpart on April 16.

Iran War

While the U.S. and Iran are currently in a ceasefire, signs of its fragility are already becoming clear—meaning that the issue will be a key focus for lawmakers this week.

On Friday, peace talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan, fell apart after Iran refused U.S. demands to dismantle its nuclear program. The United States demanded as well that Iran turn over its supply of enriched uranium.

After the peace talks failed, Trump stated that, beginning at 10 a.m. ET on Monday, the U.S. will set up a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, as U.S. ships have already begun sweeping the area for Iranian mines.

Meanwhile, Democrats—with the support of some Republicans—have vowed to take action under the War Powers Resolution of 1973, which curbs a president’s power to wage war without explicit congressional approval.

Before the break, a bid by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to take action under the War Powers Resolution via unanimous consent was blocked by Republicans. However, Jeffries has vowed to force another vote on the issue this week.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has also stated that Senate Democrats will attempt to force a vote on the matter this week.

“Congress must reassert its authority” over war-making powers, Schumer said at a news conference on April 8.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) have consistently backed action under the War Powers Resolution related to the Iran conflict, citing Congress’s constitutional role in declaring wars.

Meanwhile, a contingent of Republican lawmakers in both chambers—including Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah)—have stated that they will throw their support behind such a measure if hostilities continue after the statutory 60-day window laid out in the War Powers Resolution.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 09:35

Goldman Stock Slides After FICC Unexpectedly Misses Despite Highest Overall Profit In 5 Years

Goldman Sachs reported its highest quarterly profit in five years, as the bank's equities traders beat their own previous all-time quarterly high revenue by more than $1 billion thanks to a surge in market volatility due to the war in Iran; however this stellar performance in equities was offset by an unexpected drop in FICC revenues. Here are Goldman's Q1 results in a nutshell:

• EPS $17.55, exp. $16.41
• Net revenue $17.23 billion, +14% y/y, exp. $16.95 billion
  • Equities sales & trading revenue $5.33 billion, estimate $4.9 billion
  • FICC sales & trading revenue $4.01 billion, estimate $4.87 billion
  • Net interest income $3.56 billion, +23% y/y, estimate $3.52 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
  • Global Banking & Markets net revenues $12.74 billion, +19% y/y, estimate $12.5 billion
  • Investment banking revenue $2.84 billion
  • Advisory revenue $1.49 billion, +89% y/y, estimate $1.27 billion
  • Equity underwriting rev. $535 million, +45% y/y, estimate $478.4 million
  • Debt underwriting rev. $811 million, +7.8% y/y, estimate $771.7 million
• Total deposits $561 billion, +12% q/q
• Provision for credit losses $315 million, +9.8% y/y
• Total operating expenses $10.43 billion, +14% y/y, estimate $10.35 billion
  • Compensation expenses $5.41 billion, +11% y/y, estimate $5.51 billion

The Wall Street bank reported first-quarter net income of $5.6bn, up 19% from a year ago and better than the $5.3BN median analyst consensus. 

Goldman’s chief executive David Solomon said the “geopolitical landscape remains very complex”.

Goldman’s equities traders delivered revenues of $5.33BN, up 27% YoY, and ahead of the $4.9BN expected; This was the highest three-month haul by any bank in history, and was also more than $1 billion higher than the $4.31 billion record set in the fourth quarter of last year as Goldman benefited from wild market swings triggered by a string of geopolitical shocks. The equities boom was also driven by a surge in equities financing, which includes lending to large hedge fund clients and other speculative investors. It also came despite the abrupt departure of one of its co-heads, Erdit Hoxha, to hedge fund Millennium Management.

New regulation in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis pushed banks such as Goldman to eliminate their prop trading operations and focus more on facilitating and financing trades for other investors. These businesses benefit when markets are volatile, such as in the first quarter when there was frantic trading around the US military  operation in Venezuela and the conflict in the Middle East, which triggered a sharp increase in oil prices. 

On the other hand, FICC (Fixed-income, currency and commodities) traders badly missed expectations, posting $4.01 billion in revenue, a 10% drop YoY, and more than $800 million below the consensus of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Goldman blamed "significantly lower net revenues in interest rate products and mortgages and lower net revenue in credit profuts" for the decline. It said this was partially offset by commodities and currencies trading.

Investment bankers’ advisory fees were $1.5 billion, 89% higher than the same period last year, beating expectations across the board and reflecting a rebound in merger activity. Total Investment Banking fees for the unit hit $2.84 billion in the quarter. Goldman said that the increase in investment banking fees “primarily due to significantly higher net revenues in Advisory, reflecting a significant increase in completed mergers and acquisitions volumes.” The bank also warned investors that its backlog of fees decreased slightly compared to the previous quarter. 

Even with the decline in revenues in its fixed-income unit, it was the third-best quarter for Goldman’s trading business in its history. 

The bank also said revenues at its asset and wealth management division increased 10 per cent to $4.1bn. These money management businesses are central to Goldman’s efforts to make earnings less reliant on the cyclical businesses of investment banking and trading. 

In the asset-management division, the company said assets under supervision rose to $3.7 trillion and net revenue increased compared to the same period last year. Earlier in April, Goldman said one of its private credit funds narrowly escaped a broader exodus of investors.

The bank’s own former chief executive officer, Lloyd Blankfein, warned earlier this year that private markets — on which Goldman has staked much of its future growth strategy — face a “fire” risk from possible excessive valuations. 

Goldman, which was first of the top investment banks to report results this week, has one of the largest markets divisions on Wall Street. Such businesses benefit from a surge in volatility, which has been driven by the war in Iran, as well as concerns around artificial intelligence and private credit.

While Goldman's total geadcount was essentially unchanged compared with the end of 2025, in the first quarter, Goldman promoted seven more partners to its top management committee and hiked pay for its most senior executives, while also announcing the departure of its top lawyer due to her relationship with Jeffrey Epstein.

Despite the blowout overall results, the unexpected drop and miss in FICC was enough to spook investors, and send the stock more than 4% lower in premarket trading.

Goldman's Q1 earnings presentation is below (pdf link)

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 09:18