Zero Hedge

All High Earners Need To Know About The Mega Backdoor Roth

All High Earners Need To Know About The Mega Backdoor Roth

Authored by Javier Simon via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

If done the right way, a mega backdoor Roth can allow investors to save in a workplace retirement plan such as a 401(k) beyond the typical contribution limits.

High earners can use a mega backdoor Roth to save beyond normal retirement contribution limits. Vyaseleva Elena/Shutterstock

It also can allow investors to save in a Roth account when they otherwise would not have been able to do so because of certain restrictions.

So let’s take a closer look at this complex, but potentially beneficial strategy for high earners.

What Is a Mega Backdoor Roth?

The mega backdoor Roth is a strategy that involves making after-tax contributions to a 401(k) and then making a conversion of those contributions into either a Roth IRA or Roth 401(k).

Many people take the mega backdoor Roth approach because they can’t contribute to a Roth IRA due to income limits, or they’ve already maxed out their traditional 401(k) via salary deferrals and want to make additional contributions.

In 2026, you can’t contribute to a Roth IRA at all if your modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) is $168,000 as a single filer or $252,000 if married and filing jointly.

How Does a Mega Backdoor Roth Work?

If your plan administrator allows it, you can make after-tax contributions to your traditional 401(k) and then convert those contributions to a Roth IRA via an in-service distribution. Or, if the plan allows it, you can convert those after-tax contributions into a Roth 401(k) portion of the plan.

The key here is after-tax contributions.

After-tax 401(k) contributions are different from Roth 401(k) contributions and pretax contributions, which are associated with traditional 401(k)s.

But after-tax contributions may allow you to contribute to a workplace retirement plan like a 401(k) beyond the annual contribution limits for pretax and Roth contributions.

So let’s take a close look at these contribution limits for 2026.

You can contribute up to $24,500 in pretax and/or Roth contributions to your 401(k) if you’re under the age of 50.

Because of catch-up contributions, those aged 50 or older can contribute up to $32,500.

If your plan allows for super catch-up contributions, those between the ages of 60 and 63 can contribute up to $35,750.

But by factoring in after-tax contributions, those below age 50 may be able to save up to $72,000. Those between the ages of 50 to 59 or 64-plus can save up to $80,000. And those between the ages of 60 to 63 can save up to $83,250 if the plan allows super catch-up contributions.

But any employer contributions would count toward these limits.

Drawbacks to the Mega Backdoor Roth

Taking the mega backdoor Roth route can leave you with a hefty tax bill. This is because when you make qualified withdrawals in retirement, any investment earnings would be taxed as ordinary income.

And the earnings portion of the conversion into a Roth IRA would be subject to taxation at the time of the conversion.

In addition, your capacity to make after-tax contributions could be restricted by IRS nondiscrimination rules that affect highly compensated employees. These rules may limit how much highly compensated employees can contribute compared to non-highly compensated employees.

For 2026, you’re a highly-compensated employee if you made $160,000 or more in 2025 compensation, or if you owned more than 5 percent of the company at any time during the current or previous year.

And some plans don’t allow after-tax contributions to be eligible for employer matches.

And that brings us to one of the biggest downsides. Your plan administrator simply may not allow you to engage in the mega backdoor Roth strategy. Some employers won’t let you move money from the 401(k) and into a Roth IRA while you’re still employed by them. Or they may not allow you to transfer money from the after-tax portion of your plan into a Roth 401(k) part of the plan.

So you need to contact your plan administrator or human resources department to learn what their rules are.

The Bottom Line

Many high earners face some barriers when it comes to contributing to a Roth account. But this is when the mega backdoor Roth can come into play. This is a strategy involving making after-tax contributions to a traditional 401(k) and converting those contributions into a Roth IRA or a Roth 401(k) within the plan. But there are a few obstacles; not all companies let you take these steps within their 401(k) or other type of workplace retirement plan. There also may be some important tax implications, and the overall process could be highly complex. That’s why you need to be interested enough to brush up on your plan’s rules and take the backdoor route approach the right way. So it’s highly recommended you engage in this strategy with the guidance of a qualified tax professional.

The Epoch Times copyright © 2026. The views and opinions expressed are those of the authors. They are meant for general informational purposes only and should not be construed or interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation. The Epoch Times does not provide investment, tax, legal, financial planning, estate planning, or any other personal finance advice. The Epoch Times holds no liability for the accuracy or timeliness of the information provided.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/12/2026 - 18:40

Oil Jumps, Stocks Dump As Peace Talks Fail, Hormuz Blockade Looms

Oil Jumps, Stocks Dump As Peace Talks Fail, Hormuz Blockade Looms

Before the 'official' futures markets opened, the risk-off tone (due to the failed peace talks and Trump's threat to blockade Iranian vessels) was very evident in FX and crypto markets.

Even given the usual caveats about thin liquidity, AUD/USD is down around 1%, a classic growth-sensitive barometer flashing warning signs, while EUR/USD is weaker by roughly 0.5%.

The moves point to a softer tone for risk assets and sure enough bitcoin is down notably, but still up from pre-ceasefire levels...

All eyes are of course on the oil markets where hyperliquid perps were signaling a major jump higher as traders react to peace talks falling apart over the weekend, and the US moving to blockade the Strait of Hormuz in response.

WTI opened up over 8% surging back above $100 (topping $105)...

European gas futures also surged more than 10% as the trading day for the product expanded to 21 hours, from 10 hours, on Monday.

The timeline for the start of efforts to unwind the extreme supply shocks created by the war looks to be getting longer and longer. 

And of course, as goes oil, so goes stocks etc...

Since the war started, markets have increasingly taken their cues from crude prices given their far-reaching consequences. Surging energy costs have driven both the pullback in risk appetite as an immediate reaction to the conflict, as well as investors’ longer-term anticipation for a pickup in inflation and slowdown in consumption. 

The extent of the divergence (between oil and stocks) has now surpassed levels seen in 2022. 

But, even as the bond-stock-oil correlations started to creak on Friday...

...they are back in sync on this thin Sunday evening with S&P futures down over 1% for now...

Treasury futures prices are down notably (implying around a 5bps jump in 10Y Yields)...

The stronger dollar has pushed gold back down below $4700...

Obviously, investors will continue to monitor Middle East tensions in the coming week, while monthly reports from OPEC and the IEA will add some insight into how the Iran war is affecting the oil market.

Several major US banks are due to report earnings, where any commentary on the impact from the conflict will also be closely watched.

US data releases include producer prices, industrial production and existing home sales, while the Fed’s Beige Book will offer additional color on the health of the economy.

China is also due to report first-quarter GDP plus retail sales and industrial production data for March.

As Morgan Stanley' Michael Wilson warned: The final phase of a correction is rarely easy and could require another re-test for markets, particularly if rates or bond volatility push higher again.

It may be about to get more difficult again.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/12/2026 - 18:00

"Create A Crisis": American Association Of University Professors Sponsors Anti-ICE Campaign

"Create A Crisis": American Association Of University Professors Sponsors Anti-ICE Campaign

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

“Create a crisis.”

That call is made in a new campaign sponsored by the American Association of University Professors to force “colleges to drop their contracts with ICE’s key corporate enablers.”

Despite years of criticism over the purging of faculty ranks of conservatives and libertarians, university professors continue to double down on far-left ideology that is now an orthodoxy in higher education.

I previously wrote about the AAUP’s ideological shift in my book, The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage. After that book, the AAUP then selected Todd Wolfson, a far-left activist, as its new president.

Wolfson ran on the pledge to make AAUP a “fighting organization” for social change.

After his selection, Wolfson has called Trump supporters “fascists” and demanded boycotts of Israel.

Given that history, it was little surprise to see the AAUP’s sponsorship of this campaign, as reported by the College Fix.

The campaign is also funded by  Coefficient Giving, associated with liberal billionaire Dustin Moskovitz and his wife Cari Tuna. They have been criticized for reportedly funding groups pushing defund police and other radical agendas.

AAUP joined this campaign with Young Democratic Socialists of America, Sunrise Movement, and the Workplace Justice Lab at Rutgers University. It includes a toolkit instructing students to “create a crisis for university admin through an escalating campaign.”

The campaign seeks to organize to combat the “Trump regime” and its “terrorism”: “When students and workers join together in action, we can force our schools to stop funding and normalizing ICE collaborators and take down the whole regime.”

They are targeting companies such as Enterprise, Flock, ICE Air Carriers, Hilton, and Target.

The campaign states further that “ICE, and the Trump regime generally, cannot function without the consent and collaboration of the business world. Breaking companies from ICE is the central axis for generating enough leverage to stop the regime’s terrorization campaign.”

So university professors are funding a campaign that actively seeks to create a crisis on campuses. It takes a position as an organization that immigration enforcement is a form of terrorism. The silence among faculty is deafening. Rather than objecting that the AAUP should focus on issues related to academic freedom and protections for its members, there have been virtually no objections to the organization’s ideological agenda.

It is evidence of the new orthodoxy in higher education and the refusal of administrators and faculty to make any meaningful change in their intolerance for opposing views.

Many departments no longer have a single Republican faculty member in this academic echo chamber.

A Georgetown study found that only 9% of law school professors at the top 50 law schools identify as conservative — almost identical to the percentage of Trump voters in the new poll.

There is little evidence that faculty members are interested in changing this culture or creating greater diversity at schools.  In places like North Carolina State University, a study found that Democrats outnumbered Republicans 20 to 1.

Yale University has finally achieved the academic version of Nirvana, a state of perfect peace and enlightenment. A recent study found that the faculty had finally purged every Republican donor from its ranks.

According to a recent report from the Buckley Institute, there is now not a single Republican found across 27 of 43 departments at Yale University. In a nation roughly evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats (with a slight advantage to the GOP), only 3 percent are Republicans across all Yale departments.

The hostility to opposing views is impacting our students. A new study offers additional data on this problem, showing that almost 90% of students misrepresent their views in class and on assignments to satisfy faculty by adopting more liberal views.

In the meantime, the small number of dissenting faculty have no real voice, particularly among legal academics. I have previously written about the similar liberal agenda of the American Bar Association despite plunging membership among lawyers. The ABA now represents just 17 percent of the bar.

The AAUP currently has only 44,000 to 45,00 members. There are an estimated 1.5 million university and college professors in the United States. Both the ABA and AAUP have become captive to the most ideological elements of their membership. That agenda has overwhelmed the original apolitical mission of these groups.

This orthodoxy will continue until donors refuse to support universities that do not take meaningful action to restore diversity in the faculty ranks. The AAUP’s radical agenda is only the latest example of how higher education remains a hardened ideological silo. These faculty members have shown again and again that they are unwilling to change this culture.

Only donors can force reform by cutting off their contributions or directing them to schools with a proven commitment to intellectual diversity.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/12/2026 - 17:30

Decades-Long Study Blows Up Narrative That 'Gender Reassignment' Prevents Suicide

Decades-Long Study Blows Up Narrative That 'Gender Reassignment' Prevents Suicide

Authored by Tim O'Brien via PJ Media,

One of the most common talking points from the left is that if you don’t rush confused kids into the gender reassignment pipeline, they will kill themselves. The left tells us that “transgenderism” is not a mental health problem, while at the same time telling us that people, especially minors, will kill themselves at greater rates if steps aren’t quickly taken to get those kids on puberty blockers, and on track to have their bodies permanently mutilated to change their sex. 

AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin

More to the point, the narrative goes like this: “Trans kids” are at higher risk of suicide if they don’t receive greater acceptance, supportive environments, and “access” to “gender-affirming care.” 

Did it ever occur to the left that the suicide in these cases may be connected to the increased likelihood that gender-confused children have severe mental health instability? Did it ever occur to the left that a pre-existing mental health issue, not the gender issue, is what may contribute to the risk of suicide? 

I’ve looked at a bunch of studies the left uses to justify this narrative, and one thing goes overlooked, which is the difference between correlation and causation. In other words, if someone doesn’t call a teenager by her trans name, is that the cause of her later suicide? Or was it something else, and the "misgendering" was just a convenient scapegoat? 

And so, when researchers studied the relationship "between chosen name use, as a proxy for youths' gender affirmation in various contexts, and mental health among transgender youth," did they just assume that the trigger for later “health risks” was due to how they were addressed by name, or were all possible causes considered? 

Kids who are confused about their gender are likely confused about a lot of things, and it could be that it’s this state of confusion and a general struggle with reality that is the more fundamental problem. But if researchers only key in on how those boys and girls are addressed, they can come to any conclusions that suit them.

Destroying a common myth

Don’t take my word for it. Researchers in Finland published a groundbreaking study in the peer-reviewed pediatric journal Acta Paediatrica, which pretty much destroyed the notion that “gender reassignment” surgeries and treatments help gender-confused kids. 

According to the study, the surgeries and treatments may, in fact, be making things worse. 

“In some individuals, medical GR [gender reassignment] appears to be linked to deterioration in mental health,” the study found. “Subsequent to medical GR, psychiatric treatment needs appear to increase.” 

In other words, the surgeries and puberty blockers may be hurting the children they purport to help, and even then, the kids’ needs for psychiatric treatment for mental health problems only increase. 

Let’s dig deeper: “Among adolescents who underwent medical gender reassignment, psychiatric morbidity increased markedly during follow-up,” the study found. If that euphemism is sufficiently confusing to you, “psychiatric morbidity” in this context is suicide, eating disorders, depression, and other serious mental health problems.  

The title of the study is “Psychiatric Morbidity Among Adolescents and Young Adults Who Contacted Specialised Gender Identity Services in Finland in 1996–2019,” which itself emphasizes that this is an analysis of real-world data, not just some carefully constructed sample to study. And the time period for the study spanned 25 years. You would think that if you take a deep dive into 25 years of real-world data, you might get a clear picture of the issues at play and what’s really happening. 

During that period, the percentage of males wanting to become female jumped from 9.8% in 1996 to 60.7% in 2019. This stat alone kills the “born this way” assumption. As Finland’s culture has shifted aggressively leftward, more boys want to be girls. This suggests that the “trans kids” dynamic is a social contagion. 

On the female side, the number of girls wanting to become boys from 1996 to 2019 jumped from 21.6% to 54.5%. 

Here’s a look under the hood of the data. The study authors analyzed data from “a total of 2,083 individuals under the age of 23, who received ‘specialized gender identity services’” at hospitals over time. 

Finland has a nationalized, centralized health care system, which means that this data is pretty comprehensive and a reflection of what is actually happening in that country.  

The big news coming out of this research is that adolescents who were referred to specialist transgender services “showed significantly higher psychiatric morbidity than controls,” with 45.7% having mental health issues before referral, compared to 15.0% among the control population. This means the mental health problems were a pre-existing condition. 

Two years or more after referral to the system for “gender affirmation,” 61.7% of the gender dysphoric population had mental health issues, compared to only 14.6% of the control population.

At the same time, the data revealed that the proportion of teenagers with mental health problems also rose by 35% after receiving a referral to specialist transgender services. If I’m reading this right, it would seem that any kid in Finland who turned to the healthcare community for help with gender dysphoria issues likely found that his or her mental health problems got worse as a result. 

Here’s the kicker. Because not every kid who entered the system went through with the whole program, the researchers were able to measure how many kids who opted out of puberty blockers and sex change surgeries fared psychologically as a result.  

The study found that teens who decided not to receive hormonal or surgical treatments enjoyed better mental health outcomes. The rate of mental health challenges increased by a much lesser amount. That puts the kibosh on the whole rationale for transing the kids. 

If a kid is confused over his or her gender, and you don’t give them puberty blockers, and you don’t push surgeries on them, you’re more likely to have a kid with better mental health in the end.  

But if you do put them on the hormonal treatment track and the surgery track, the chances of the child having compounded mental health problems increase. 

Common sense wins

The bottom line is that common sense wins every time. Tragically, there are still hospitals, mental health professionals, school counselors, and parents who want to irreversibly change a child’s mental and physical make-up to solve what amounts to a very treatable mental health problem at a key stage of their adolescent growth and maturation process. 

The left likes to lecture the right to “follow the science,” but this science will be buried if the left has anything to do with it. The left wants gender-confused children. The left wants to "trans kids."

Speaking of “trans kids,” how did that even become a thing? How does a child know he or she is, in fact, the opposite sex in the wrong body? That can only come as part of a very sophisticated, manipulative process that certain segments of society are foisting on the kids to corrupt them. 

It’s time to put an end to this. The more irrefutable data we have that cannot be suppressed, the more likely we’ll be able to look after the most vulnerable among us and protect them from “gender affirming” destruction. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/12/2026 - 15:10

President Trump Faces Renewed Backlash As Trump-Linked Tokens Crash

President Trump Faces Renewed Backlash As Trump-Linked Tokens Crash

Authored by Vince Quill via CoinTelegraph.com,

United States President Donald Trump is facing renewed scrutiny as crypto tokens and projects touted by the US president crash to all-time lows or sit near record low levels.

The Official Trump token (TRUMP), a memecoin pushed by Trump, hit an all-time low of about $2.73 in March 2026 and is currently trading at about $2.86, according to data from CoinGecko.

The TRUMP memecoin has plummeted in price since launching in January 2025. Source: CoinGecko

The governance token issued by World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform co-founded by Trump’s sons, sunked to an all-time low of just $0.07 on Saturday.

WLFI is down by nearly 75% from its all-time high of about $0.31 reached in September 2025, while the TRUMP memecoin is down by about 90% since its all-time high of over $73 reached in January 2025. 

The WLFI token has crashed by nearly 75% since the all-time high reached in September 2025. Source: CoinMarketCap

“We thought Sam Bankman-Fried or Gary Gensler were the worst things to happen to the crypto industry, and they were horrible,” Professor Tonya Evans said in response to the plummeting token prices. Evans, a board member at Grayscale parent DCG, added:

“But, turns out, it was the guy who surrounds himself with sycophants, siphons every bit of value he can for himself, and then expeditiously bankrupts companies and casinos without consequence.”

President Trump also announced another gala for token holders, scheduled to take place on April 25, fueling renewed scrutiny from US Democratic lawmakers, who have accused Trump of influence peddling by giving token holders access to him.

US lawmakers send letter to Trump memecoin creator

Senators Elizabeth Warren, Richard Blumenthal and Adam Schiff have asked Bill Zanker, the individual who launched the Trump memecoin, for details on the purpose of the planned Trump memecoin gala in April.

The organizers of the event are “dangling access” to Trump, the lawmakers said, according to Politico, which obtained a copy of the letter. 

Trump and his family members stand to benefit from increased sales of the Trump memecoin; attendees are required to hold TRUMP tokens to gain access to the event, the Senators said.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/12/2026 - 14:00

FAA Greenlights Laser Sentry Guns To Combat Attack Drones In U.S. Airspace

FAA Greenlights Laser Sentry Guns To Combat Attack Drones In U.S. Airspace

The Federal Aviation Administration has given the green light for the U.S. military to deploy high-energy counter-drone laser weapons in U.S. airspace, adding a new, low-cost layer of protection against the rising threat from kamikaze drones. The decision follows a two-month interagency standoff over whether the systems posed a risk to general aviation and commercial aircraft, as well as incidents in Texas earlier this year that briefly led to an airspace closure.

FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford was quoted by The New York Times as saying the new laser weapon systems had completed a safety assessment that "determined that these systems do not present an increased risk to the flying public."

The decision paves the way for broader use of these 20- to 35+-kilowatt-class laser weapon systems along the southern border to combat drug cartel drones and one-way attack drones. These threats have caused alarm at the highest levels in Washington, especially following the use of drones by Iran in the Gulf area to target data centers, civilian infrastructure, and U.S. military bases.

The NYTimes provided more color on the FAA's decision: 

The statement did not address whether the agency had determined that the high-energy lasers posed no physical risk to aircraft, or whether the safety determination was based on how the lasers were being deployed. But the F.A.A. determined that the risk would be minimal even if the laser came into contact with an airplane, according to an agency official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.

The controversy surrounding these laser weapons stems from the February 10 incident when the FAA briefly closed airspace over El Paso after Border Patrol fired the weapon at an object that turned out to be a metallic balloon. With the interagency standoff over, the U.S. military has considered deploying these lasers in Washington, D.C., to combat low-cost, one-way attack drones.

The core vulnerability across U.S. airspace is that a cheap, layered counter-drone system still does not exist, nor is one widely deployed around critical civilian infrastructure such as data centers, power plants, transmission substations, and other critical nodes across the modern economy, where even limited disruption could trigger localized or regional turmoil. The race to close that gap with low-cost systems is underway. We laid out this threat assessment one month before the US-Iran conflict. Now it's time for solutions.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/12/2026 - 13:25

More Than Just Iran

More Than Just Iran

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Without a doubt, trading at the start of the week will hinge on developments in the ongoing ceasefire negotiations.

As Spider, Bret, and I discussed on Friday’s podcast the range of possible outcomes has not narrowed significantly. Anything from a serious deal, to walking away and restarting the attacks seems plausible. Spider “guffawed” at the comparison of Regime Change to Welcome Back Kotter – well, the names have all changed…

You know we live in a weird world, where in less than a week, the President posting on Truth Social that a “civilization will die tonight” barely registers as something to talk about.

Academy will continue to stay in front of you this weekend and next week as the situation develops, but the podcast (and much of our writing from this week) remains relevant until we get a clear direction on the talks. So far it has been compared to two sides repeating their list of demands to each other, but at least they are communicating.

More Than an Easter Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine?

With all the attention focused on Iran, there are stories circulating that Russia and Ukraine could be heading towards something more lasting (while at the same time, there are concerns that even the limited Easter ceasefire won’t hold). Easter (for those following the Julian calendar) is this weekend, while for those following the Gregorian calendar, it was last weekend.

Why could this war finally be headed towards a deal?

Ukraine.

  • Depending on the U.S. for big support has already seemed like a weak strategy. With the U.S. un-sanctioning Russian oil, it seems even more dangerous to tie your hopes to U.S. aid (also, the U.S. has been using up missiles in the fight in Iran, so will be less likely to want to ship military equipment elsewhere, until our stockpiles are replenished).

  • Relying on Europe has always been difficult at best. The EU has not been prepared for war, and the framework of the EU makes it difficult to do anything major, quickly. For me, when Brussels vetoed the taking of Russia’s frozen reserves, I largely gave up on the EU.

Russia. Given the two previous paragraphs, it would seem that Russia should be foaming at the mouth to increase attacks and not even be thinking about peace. But…

  • From a “carrot” perspective, this might be the easiest time for Russia to “ease back” into the global economy. With sanctions already lifted, it might make sense to do a deal now and have those sanctions permanently lifted (politicians have an easier time maintaining the status quo, than changing it).

  • Ukraine has a factory in the UK. Ukraine is working with some countries in the Gulf. We have already seen what asymmetric warfare can do against even the biggest, best, most well-prepared military in the world – and that is not what the Russian military is. If you are Russia, you may have to worry that Ukraine is getting better at drones. Also, while Russia and Ukraine largely kept away from infrastructure targets, those seem more likely to be on the table as attacks (and threats of attacks) on those targets moved the needle 

It would be a pleasant surprise to see some progress on this front. While it still seems unlikely, maybe we have finally reached the point where conditions on both sides warrant some sort of a deal.

On Any Other Weekend This Would Be the Main Focus

Stocks averages did so well this week that weakness in an important sector has been largely ignored.

This ETF is comprised of some of the biggest, best “software” brands in the world. Yet, while everything else was rallying this week, this ETF had its lowest close since 2023. The recent selling, at least in part, coincided with a new AI model, which also triggered an “emergency” banking meeting in D.C.

What was interesting, and in direct contrast to the Barron’s article linked above, is that the CIBR (a cybersecurity-focused ETF) also did poorly (ending the week barely above its post Liberation Day lows).

SOXX, a semiconductor ETF, had a great week.

I continue to believe that as we near an end to the conflict in Iran, ProSec will once again take center stage, with domestic energy, electricity, and chip manufacturing as the focus.

Having said that, the carnage in software seems like it should have broader implications for the market. Maybe it will once we have fewer “headlines” about the Middle East.

CONsumer CONfidence

If the CON CON didn’t give it away (again), I am not a big fan of this data series. But two things struck me as interesting.

Inflation expectations for 5 to 10 years out remained “anchored” coming in at 3.4%. Up a bit from recent prints of 3.2%, and well above the Fed’s target, but well below readings throughout most of 2025. If the Fed was willing to cut rates with much higher long-run expectations (and they did), then this should help rate cut probabilities inch higher. It isn’t great data, but could have been worse, which is all that a Fed run by Warsh is likely to need.

On the flip side, while I’m not a huge fan of the number, “all-time” records deserve at least some attention

The deterioration has been dramatic and cannot be “just” linked to Iran. Does that mean affordability (and the “working poor”) thesis is about to get some attention again?

The caveat to this is that CONsumer CONfidence is very “political.” Not sure why it is that political, but it is – just look at the chart, and how confidence switched after the election. Long before the President was even sworn into office, the sentiment of Republicans and Democrats did a 180 (the same thing happened, but in reverse, when Biden beat Trump).

I will ignore the Democrats for now, and focus on Republicans and Independents. Both were slightly better than their lowest levels since the election. That mitigates some of the sting of the headline number but it is something to keep a close eye on.

I do hate that I dedicated so much space to a data series that I don’t put a lot of faith in, but this was too big to ignore.

Bottom Line

Sunday night and Monday morning will be heavily dependent on the messaging out of Pakistan (I did a double take as I wrote that, but it seems to be the case).

There is nothing bigger for the global economy than how this conflict is resolved or proceeds. Given the trading over the last two days (where every “negative” headline was met with minimal selling, and every “positive” headline was met with robust buying) a lot of good news is priced in. We will still rally on positive outcomes, but some form of a “deal” seems to be increasingly priced into markets.

Let’s hope that markets are right and we are near the end.

Then for better or worse, we can return to our “normal” programming and figure out what to make of the AI story, the software story, the K-shaped (or working poor) story, the affordability problem (which will be alleviated with a good outcome in the Middle East, but not solved), the jobs story, etc.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/12/2026 - 12:50

Saudi Arabia's Most Critical Pipeline Restored After Drone Attack

Saudi Arabia's Most Critical Pipeline Restored After Drone Attack

A key Saudi oil pipeline to the Red Sea was restored on Sunday and is now pumping at full capacity after an Iranian drone attack last week damaged a pumping station.

The East-West pipeline is back at full capacity, moving about 7 million barrels per day and restoring critical energy flows from Saudi's Persian Gulf oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz.

Bloomberg quoted the Saudi energy ministry as saying that Saudi Aramco's offshore Manifa field has been restored, while repairs continue at the Khurais onshore complex. Last week, attacks on Manifa and Khurais each knocked out about 300,000 bpd.

"This quick recovery reflects the high operational resilience and crisis management efficiency of Saudi Aramco and the kingdom's energy ecosystem as a whole, thereby enhancing the reliability and continuity of supplies to local and global markets," the energy ministry said.

The Iranian attack on the pipeline last week came on the same day the U.S. and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire. By Sunday, after a marathon round of talks in Islamabad between Vice President JD Vance, U.S. negotiators, and Iranian negotiators, no peace deal was reached, but the door was left open for future diplomacy.

"We leave here with a very simple proposal: a method of understanding that is our final and best offer," Vance told reporters earlier. "We'll see if the Iranians accept it."

On Saturday, the U.S. Department of War confirmed that two U.S. warships transited the Hormuz chokepoint to begin marine mine-clearing operations. Only a handful of ships have transited the critical waterway, as traffic remained muted late into the weekend.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/12/2026 - 08:45

India's Nuclear Bet Is Starting To Pay Off

India's Nuclear Bet Is Starting To Pay Off

Authored by Haley Zaremba via OilPrice.com,

  • India's fast breeder reactor in Tamil Nadu achieved criticality earlier this month, making it self-sustaining and only the second commercial plant of its kind in the world.

  • The 500-megawatt plant advances India's goal of reaching 100 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2047, up from roughly 9 gigawatts today.

  • While the milestone is significant, experts warn India's 'all of the above' energy strategy may need to become more targeted as demand grows.

India has reached a milestone in its nuclear energy program through its state-of-the-art fast breeder reactor, signalling a major step forward for the clean energy transition in the world’s most populous country. The country’s most advanced nuclear reactor reached criticality earlier this month, meaning that the nuclear chain reaction powering the plant is self-sustaining. This breakthrough will ultimately allow India to import far less uranium to power its nuclear program, and can be adapted to use domestic thorium reserves for fuel in a win-win for the subcontinent’s energy security and autonomy. 

When the plant comes online fully, it will be only the second commercial breeder plant of its kind in the world. The other is in Russia. These plants could change the nuclear landscape completely, as they are capable of producing more fissile material (in essence, nuclear fuel) than they consume. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed the achievement as “a proud moment for India” and “a defining step” in advancing India’s nuclear program.

“This advanced reactor, capable of producing more fuel than it consumes, reflects the depth of our scientific capability and the strength of our engineering enterprise. It is a decisive step towards harnessing our vast thorium reserves in the third stage of the programme,” Modi said in a post on X on Monday.

This achievement is a long time in the making. The plant, based in the Southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, has been in development since 2000. It’s not yet clear when the plant will come online, but it is expected to generate 500 megawatts of carbon-free electricity. This will represent a major step toward India’s aim to achieve 100 gigawatts of capacity by 2047, a significant boost from today’s level of approximately 9 gigawatts.

At present, nuclear power accounts for just 2% of India’s energy mix, but the carbon-free form of energy production will be a critical part of India’s decarbonization strategy. India is currently between a rock and a hard place when it comes to balancing energy security and sustainability with the nation’s humans and economic development goals. 

Despite considerable economic development in recent decades, India remains one of the poorest countries in the world, and increasing energy access is a central platform of India’s continued climb out of poverty. “Tackling the energy access gap is a critical step in meeting the country’s economic and social development ambitions, and it has been a top priority for successive Indian governments,” says a Guardian report from September of last year. 

Meeting the energy needs of all 1.47 billion people in India without majorly derailing global climate goals will require enormous investments in a wide array of traditional and innovative energy alternatives. India is already the third-largest energy consumer in the world after the United States and China, and its needs will only continue to grow. Nuclear, and next-gen nuclear such as breeder reactors, will be just one component of a diverse energy portfolio. 

While the fast breeder reactor marks a major step forward for Indian energy innovation, it likely won’t provide a silver-bullet solution to the subcontinent’s energy challenges. Many other nations have pursued the development of such models, including the United States, China, France, and South Korea, but most have abandoned the pursuit in favor of other next-gen nuclear models that they see as more promising, such as small modular reactors. However, even if this form of reactor doesn’t become the new normal for India, it will still serve the country’s overall energy ambitions, which include a diverse energy playing field. But, going forward, a more streamlined approach may be necessary. 

“India’s energy transition goals have always been an ‘all of the above’ approach, to increase capacity from fossil and non-fossil sources as part of its broader economic growth aspirations – and in response to growing demand,” Ashwini Swain, an energy transition expert at the Delhi-based Sustainable Futures Collaborative, told The Guardian. “So far the approach has mostly been ad hoc and supply-centric rather than targeted to end users, because it comes from a scarcity mindset,” Swain went on to say. “This has worked out so far, but India has reached a stage where we need a much more strategic whole systems approach to energy transition.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/12/2026 - 08:10

Add Pakistan To Growing List Of Countries Preparing To Stockpile Shahed-Style Attack Drones

Add Pakistan To Growing List Of Countries Preparing To Stockpile Shahed-Style Attack Drones

The Pakistan-based drone company Sysverve Aerospace can now be added to the rapidly expanding list of defense firms worldwide racing to develop, manufacture, stockpile, and potentially deploy low-cost, one-way attack drones on the modern battlefield. The proliferation of these drones across two major battlefields in Eurasia is set to permanently reshape warfare.

Pakistani-American artificial intelligence investor Amir Husain posted on X about an exhibit featuring Sysverve’s latest "Shahed-like loitering munition."

When asked on X by one user where the exhibit was being featured, Husain stated it was at the World Defense Show, held in February in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Sysverve’s website describes the company as a leader of unmanned air target systems in Pakistan and states it also develops surveillance and combat UAVs. Its contact page lists the company in Rawalpindi, Pakistan.

Last week, we revealed that India has adopted the Iranian-style drone playbook, with startup HoverIt showcasing its DIVYASTRA MK2, an advanced long-range strike drone.

In the six-week U.S.-Iran conflict, Shahed drones launched by Iran proved extraordinarily effective, knocking out data centers in surrounding Gulf states and even successfully striking U.S. bases in the region.

The U.S. announced during the conflict that it had deployed its own Iranian-style kamikaze drones.

We recently published a fascinating piece titled "Ukraine Becomes World’s AI Weapons Laboratory," which delves into Ukraine’s drone industry and offers more insight into interceptor technology.

On Friday, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukrainian forces stationed in the Gulf had successfully used Ukrainian interceptor drones against Iranian Shahed drones.

The emergence of these low-cost drones on the modern battlefield began with the war between Ukraine and Russia over the past four years. There are even reports that Russia was preparing to send a massive drone shipment to Iran:

The UAE recently announced that it has developed a jet-powered, Shahed-style drone capable of speeds exceeding 650 mph.

Let’s not forget that China is producing these drones at scale to the highest bidder:

The development of these low-cost drones will be accelerated by more advanced power plants, as well as AI-enabled targeting, which could make the kill chain truly autonomous. There are already reports suggesting that AI kill chains have arrived.

It is safe to assume militaries worldwide will stockpile one-way attack drones by the millions in the years ahead. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/12/2026 - 07:35

London Mayor Sadiq Khan Calls For A Government Social Media 'Disinformation' Unit

London Mayor Sadiq Khan Calls For A Government Social Media 'Disinformation' Unit

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Sadiq Khan is pushing hard for a new state-backed disinformation unit to silence online criticism of London. The Mayor claims a “dark blizzard of disinformation” is undermining the city, linking it directly to offline harm, and wants government tools to force Big Tech to act – or else.

In a post on X (replies closed of course), Khan declared: “We can’t ignore the link between online disinformation and offline harm. At the Cambridge Disinformation Summit, I spoke about how the ‘outrage economy’ is eating away at the basic bonds of trust that hold our societies together – and why we need urgent action.”

He doubled down in remarks to the media, insisting: “We’re right to expect big tech to do better, but we should not rely on it. If platforms fail to act, the state must have the tools to make them. That’s why I’ll continue lobbying the government publicly and privately to take a much tougher approach.”

Khan called for “a new central body with the agility and authority to protect our democracy from disinformation, and deal with the scale and speed of this crisis. And we need more aggressive enforcement of the rules we already have. Because unless regulators like Ofcom have the power to hit companies where it hurts, they’ll keep on getting away with it.”

He added: “The outrage economy is eating away at the basic bonds of trust that hold our societies together. It isn’t just a challenge for progressives like me. It’s a challenge for anyone who believes in democracy – wherever they are.”

Khan further suggested that “The same people attacking the capital have already started targeting other cities around the world. And, in a few years’ time, I think we’ll look back on London as the canary in the coal mine. But I hope we’ll also see it as the place where the fightback began.”

Civil liberties group Big Brother Watch sounded the alarm on X:

As we recently highlighted, Khan is running a campaign to dismiss the chaotic reality on London’s streets as foreign propaganda or American disinformation:

While Khan obsesses over online narratives, the actual data from his own city tells a different story.

Every hour in London a rape is reported, and every half hour or thereabouts knife crime is reported. Yet Sadiq khan claims it is the safest city in the world and everything negative you hear is “disinformation.”

Big Brother Watch’s warning is spot on. When officials label uncomfortable truths about crime, migration and failing multiculturalism as “disinformation,” the real agenda becomes clear: protect the narrative, not the public.

This is classic surveillance-state creep dressed up as protecting democracy. Instead of fixing the streets, Khan wants to police the tweets. Free speech isn’t the problem – unchecked crime and open-borders policies that imported it are.

The fightback isn’t a new government censorship body. It’s citizens refusing to be gaslit while their city crumbles. Londoners deserve safe streets, not speech police.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/12/2026 - 07:00

Pages