Zero Hedge

Shooters And Motives Revealed In San Diego Mosque Shooting That Killed Three

Shooters And Motives Revealed In San Diego Mosque Shooting That Killed Three

The two young alleged gunmen who descended upon a San Diego Islamic facility on Monday -- killing three men and themselves -- have been identified, along with early indications of their motives. Police sources have told multiple outlets that 17-year-old Cain Clark and 18-year-old Caleb Velasquez -- driven by hate -- scrawled racist themes on their weapons and carried a gas can emblazoned with a Nazi SS sticker. One of them left a suicide note emphasizing "racial pride." 

While school-wrestler Cain Clark's appearance has left some wondering, there's been no reporting of any non-standard gender identity

The attack was carried out on the Islamic Center of San Diego, which is roughly eight miles north of downtown and is home to the county's largest mosque, and Bright Horizon Academy, a K-12 Islamic school. While the shooting began around 11:40 am, one of the shooter's mothers contacted police at 9:42 am. She told them her son was missing, that he was suicidal, and that her firearms and her car were gone. She also reported that he was with a companion, both of them dressed in camouflage clothing. Police tried to track them down using license plate readers, at one point responding to a possible matching plate near a shopping mall. Other officers were dispatched to a high school that one of the alleged shooters attended. 

Police say that, after leaving the Islamic center, the alleged young murderers fired shots at a landscaper two blocks away, with one of the rounds grazing his helmet. He wasn't wounded. Soon after, the two were found dead inside a white BMW another block away from the Islamic center, having apparently died of self-inflicted gunshots. Inside the vehicle, investigators found some type of anti-Islamic writing. In addition, the BMW contained a gasoline can that had a Nazi SS sticker on it, and police say unspecified "hate speech" was written on their firearms. They haven't described the weapons yet.  

The body of one of the shooters lies to the left of the BMW, and a gas can adorned with a Nazi SS symbol sits nearby.  

Clark wrestled for Madison High School, which is only a mile from the Islamic center, but never attended there in person, instead enrolling in the San Diego Unified School District's iHigh Virtual Academy.  He was set to graduate this month. Outside their home, Clark's grandparents told CNN that he had been "a good kid," with the incident leaving them shocked. "We're trying to process this," they said, adding that they were "very sorry for what happened." No biographical details about Velasquez have emerged yet; nor have any photos of him been shared by reliable sources. 

Police have thus far refused to share specifics about the hate speech associated with the slogans on the weapons, the writing in the car and the suicide note. "There was definitely hate rhetoric that was involved," Wah said at a press conference, suggesting that more information may be revealed later. "There was generalized hate rhetoric and speech," but no specific threat to "any facility or any place." 

Police haven't identified the shooters' weapons, but maybe our ZeroHedge commenters can crowd-source a partial answer from this image (Anadolu via Getty Images)

One of three dead men was security guard Amin Abdullah, who's being credited with curtailing the carnage. "I think it’s fair to say his actions were heroic," San Diego Police Chief Scott Wahl told reporters. "Undoubtedly, he saved lives today." He was a father of eight children. An online fundraiser rapidly raised more than $1.2 million and counting. 

Security guard Amin Abdullah was killed, but police credited him with minimizing the casualties (via LaunchGood)

"My community is mourning," said Taha Hassane, the director an imam of the Islamic center. "The religious intolerance and the hate that unfortunately exists in our nation is unprecedented."

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 08:15

Futures Fall As Momentum Cracks Grow With Yields And Oil Higher

Futures Fall As Momentum Cracks Grow With Yields And Oil Higher

US equity futures are lower, set for a 3rd drop in a row, as traders waited for futile signs of progress toward a peace deal in the Middle East. and as tech and small cap stocks reacted adversely to higher bond yields around the globe, but nowhere more so than in Japan, where many tenors are trading at record lows, as the wheels have fully come off the clown bus, aka the Bank of Japan. As of 7:30am ET, Nasdaq 100 futures slid 0.8% as a retreat in tech shares pulled stocks lower in the US and Asia; S&P futures were down 0.4%, putting the benchmark on course for its longest losing streak since March. In premarket trading, semis/memory names remain under pressure; GOOGL and MSFT outperformed their Mag 7 peers, with Nvidia’s earnings looming as the next major test for the AI trade. Sandisk slipped again as the selloff in memory stocks continued. Financials and Staples are two of the bright spots despite Defensives generally leading Cyclicals. South Korea’s Kospi - ground zero of the global memory momentum bubble - led losses in Asia as  the momentum trade cracks (with foreign investors pulling money for a 9th straight day). Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.7% as media and financial services outperformed: the continent's outperformance may be the market expressing the view that the next rotation is underway. The USD traded near session highs, reversing a modest drop earlier, which helped send 10Y yields to session highs around 4.62%. Oil reversed overnight losses to trade at session highs while. Commodities are mixed after Trump said he is delaying Iranian attacks due to GCC requests to find a deal. Today’s macro data focus is on weekly ADP and Pending Home Sales. Given bond yields, the Goldilocks zone for ADP has narrowed: too high and inflation concerns flare and too low and the narrative shifts to stagflation.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower as Alphabet and Microsoft outperformed their Mag 7 peers, with Nvidia’s earnings looming as the next major test for the AI trade. Sandisk Corp. slipped as the selloff in memory stocks continued. (Alphabet +0.5, Microsoft +1, Meta -0.3, Amazon -0.7%, Apple -0.6%, Nvidia -0.7%, Tesla -1%).

  • Agilysys (AGYS) is up 15% after the hospitality software company reported its fourth-quarter results.
  • Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) rises 12% as the Securities and Exchange Commission is said to ready plans for trading crypto versions of stocks.
  • XP (XP) falls 5.9% after the Brazilian asset management company reported first-quarter earnings that missed estimates. Revenues from fixed-income products sold to retail clients were especially weak, analysts said, weighed down by elevated interest rates.
  • Agilysys (AGYS) rises 20% after the hospitality software company posted quarterly results that topped estimates.
  • Amer Sports (AS) rises 4% after it raised full-year guidance and first-quarter results beat estimates, buoyed by demand for Salomon shoes.
  • Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) rises 12% as the Securities and Exchange Commission is said to ready plans for trading crypto versions of stocks.
  • Relay Therapeutics (RLAY) rises 14% after the drug developer gave initial clinical data from a mid-stage trial to treat vascular anomalies. TD Cowen calls the data “best case scenario.”
  • Stubhub (STUB) rises 4% as Guggenheim Securities upgrades to buy from neutral citing upside to 2026 numbers.
  • XP (XP) falls 4% after the Brazilian asset management company reported first-quarter earnings that missed estimates. Revenues from fixed-income products sold to retail clients were especially weak, analysts said, weighed down by elevated interest rates.

In other corporate news, Clear Street is cutting jobs and replacing its CEO, as the Wall Street brokerage firm pivots after abandoning a plan to go public earlier this year. Google agreed to create an AI cloud business with Blackstone, aiming to compete with companies like CoreWeave in a burgeoning market. A jury rejected Elon Musk’s claims that OpenAI betrayed its mission to benefit the public by morphing into a for-profit business, finding that he waited too long to sue the company. Meanwhile, the “Muskonomy” imminently gets a second stock with the SpaceX IPO and that could create problems for Tesla, as explored in the latest Tech Watch column. 

The AI/momentum rally is faltering after powering global equities to record highs in the face of rising bond yields and elevated crude prices. As noted last night, the two-day drop in high beta momentum was the biggest since 2022.

The recent boom in pockets of the market such as semiconductors and non-profitable tech has traders wondering if the next move is buy the dip or sustained rotation into other places. At the same time, lagging sectors such as healthcare are catching up after underperforming over the past few weeks. 

Meanwhile, asset allocators increased their equity exposure to stocks by the most on record to a net 50% overweight from 13% last month, and are now most overweight stocks since January 2022, Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey shows. The most crowded trade, referenced by 73% of respondents, is long semiconductors, followed by long Mag-7 (14%) and long oil (6%). 

JPMorgan Market Intelligence desk expects any pullback to be short-lived, dips will likely be bought on the strength in macro and micro, the return of retail investors, the perceived restart of corporate buybacks, and a generally positive take on impending market catalysts.

“The performance of the semis has been parabolic, so it’s not surprising there’s some profit-taking,” said Roger Lee, head of equity strategy at Cavendish. “Maybe there is also an element of the returning doubts over the monetization of AI.”

Hedging costs appear to be picking up, with normalized skews on the major indexes increasing from last week’s trough, which saw Nasdaq 100 sentiment the most bullish in more than a year.

Speaking of AI, so far the only tangible benefit is scapegoating it for mass layoffs: the recent trend of job cuts on the back of "AI efficiencies" continues to make headlines. Meta is reassigning 7,000 workers to new jobs related to AI, according to an internal memo, part of a broad corporate restructuring that includes planned staff reductions later this week. Standard Chartered said it would cut corporate functions roles by more than 15% by 2030 and scale practical uses of AI to streamline processes.

And then there is the war in iran. “Investors are desperate for the Middle East conflict to end as that should, in theory, help to bring down oil prices, dampen talk of rate hikes, and switch the conversation back to economic growth,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell. “For now, the conflict rumbles on and investors remain slightly cautious.”

After oil-driven inflation drove bond yields steadily higher since the start of the war in the Middle East, traders are now zeroing in on 5.5% as the next key level for 30-year Treasuries, according to Citigroup Inc. strategist Jim McCormick.

“I see markets underpricing the risk of a Fed rate hike starting this year,” he said. Swap traders are currently leaning toward a 25 basis point increase in December, with a move fully priced for March next year.

Nicolas Bickel, group head of investment for private banking at Edmond de Rothschild, told Bloomberg TV he wouldn’t be surprised to see 10-year US yields at 5%. The rate rose three basis points to 4.62% on Tuesday. “If we have higher inflation and growth stays steady, it will not be an issue,” he said.

In political news, Trump announced his administration is adding more than 600 generic medications to its direct-to-consumer drug sales website TrumpRx alongside billionaire Mark Cuban. The SEC is poised to roll out a plan for trading digital versions of securities that could reshape the landscape of the American stock market as it continues to loosen the rules for free-wheeling crypto markets. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is thus far avoiding declines and is up by 0.7%, led by media, financial services and retail stocks. Most sectors advance, with the basic resources subindex the only significant decliner. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

  • Evolution gains as much as 13%, the most since Oct. 2024, after the Swedish online gambling company approved a €2 billion share buyback program. Analysts say the size of the buyback program is a welcome signal of confidence
  • IG Group shares rise as much as 9.8% to a new high after first-quarter revenue beat analysts’ forecasts and the online trading company lifted its full-year guidance
  • Intrum gains as much as 18% after UBS upgraded the Swedish credit services group to buy from neutral, saying the announcement of a fully-underwritten capital increase is a “clear inflection point for the equity story”
  • Lagercrantz gains as much as 8.5% to a record high after the Swedish industrial group reported earnings ahead of estimates. DNB Carnegie describes the update as very solid, citing a high pace of acquisitions during the year
  • Currys shares gain as much as 12% after a trading update and are now in positive territory for the year. Analysts welcomed a third consecutive upgrade to pretax profit guidance
  • Hansa Biopharma gains as much as 30% after the company sold the exclusive development and commercialization rights to Idefirix in the EU, UK, Switzerland, Norway, Liechtenstein, Iceland and the Middle East and North Africa regions
  • Vallourec falls as much as 11%, the most since July 2024, after ArcelorMittal sold shares in the French tubular solutions company at a discount. Morgan Stanley calls the news a surprise
  • Grieg Seafood falls as much as 8.1%, the most in a month, after the Norwegian fisheries firm posted weak results and trimmed full-year forecasts, which analysts expect will cause consensus estimates to be slashed
  • Boxer declined as much as 5.8% after Pick n Pay Stores raised 4.7 billion rand by selling 57.3 million ordinary shares of the retailer — representing 12.5% of Boxer’s total issued shares — through an accelerated bookbuild offering
  • Forterra shares slip as much as 7.9% to the lowest since November 2023 after the UK brickmaker reported soft trading and gave cautious commentary for FY26
  • Nanobiotix shares drop as much as 9.5%, falling for a third day after hitting a record last week. That trimmed the French biotechnology company’s rally since the FDA accepted a streamlined trial design in early May for its experimental cancer drug

Asian stocks dropped for a third session as a lack of clarity over an Iran peace deal and elevated global bond yields weighed on risk sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.9%, heading for its longest losing streak since March. South Korea’s Kospi Index was one of the worst performers, tumbling more than 3% as rising bond yields dulled the appeal of growth stocks like chipmakers. Risk appetite remained muted even after President Donald Trump said he was holding off on fresh strikes on Iran, as investors focused on elevated oil prices that have fanned inflation concerns. Those worries are keeping bond yields higher for longer, offsetting optimism over the benefits of the artificial intelligence boom. “Global bond yields moving higher are sending a clear reality check: sustained high energy prices could bring tighter monetary conditions sooner rather than later,” according to Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. 

Over the past five years, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index has fallen in 16 of the 19 weeks when the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 20 basis points or more, losing an average 1.6%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Last week fit that pattern. Indonesian shares were on track for a sixth session of declines as speculation mounted that the government will centralize commodity exports to control capital flows and shore up a plunging currency. Meanwhile, benchmarks in mainland China, Hong Kong and Australia rose. Chipmakers Samsung Electronics Co., SK Hynix Inc. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. were among the biggest drags on the regional gauge.  In Japan, the broader benchmark Topix index rebounded, led by banks after stronger-than-expected GDP data fueled speculation the central bank could raise interest rates again.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.3%, while the Aussie is the underperformer after RBA minutes.

In rates, Treasuries are weaker with 10-year yields up two basis points following similar price action in bunds while gilts outperform after lower-than-forecast UK April jobs figures.  US 10-year yield near 4.61% (vs session high 4.62%) underperforms UK counterpart by almost 5bp; US 30-year near 5.15% is also about 1bp off day’s high. US yields are 2bp-3bp cheaper across a slightly flatter curve; Fed-OIS contracts price in around 16 basis points of tightening by year-end and fully price in a hike by the March policy meeting. UK bonds are outperforming in Europe after soft labour market data. Ten-year gilt yields are down four basis points and bets on Bank of England rate hikes have been pulled back. G dollar issuance slate includes five deals already; Monday saw Merck’s $6 billion bond sale lead eight borrowers pricing a combined $12.2 billion of new debt. Kennametal, Mobility Global and Xylem are candidates for Tuesday after holding market exercises Monday. Treasury auctions this week include $16 billion 20-year bonds (Wednesday) and $19 billion 10-year TIPS reopening (Thursday). Focal points of US session include comments by Fed Governor Waller at 8am New York time and potential for another large corporate new-issue calendar. 

In commodities, oil prices have reversed overnight losses with Brent sitting a little above $110 after Trump said he’d called off a strike on Iran following an appeal by Persian Gulf allies

Economic data slate includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15am) and April pending home sales (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Waller (8am) and Paulson (7pm).

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini -0.3%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini -0.6%
  • Russell 2000 mini -0.4%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.8%
  • DAX +1.3%
  • CAC 40 +0.9%
  • 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.61%
  • VIX +0.3 points at 18.15
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.3% at 1203.27
  • euro -0.3% at $1.1616
  • WTI crude -1.1% at $107.5/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • President Trump said he would hold off on a planned U.S. attack on Iran at the request of Gulf leaders to make room for negotiations with Tehran over a prospective deal to end the war. The White House didn’t provide additional details about the planned attack. Several Gulf officials from some of the countries Trump mentioned said they were not aware of the imminent plan to attack Iran he described. WSJ
  • Trump said 'hopefully, maybe forever' regarding the decision to delay the Iran attack, while he added that they will probably be satisfied if they can make a deal where Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon. Trump also stated that countries requested to put off the attack on Iran briefly and asked if an attack on Iran could be delayed 2-3 days: Truth Social
  • US officials told the NYT that Iran has taken advantage of the ceasefire to re-expose dozens of bombed ballistic missile sites, move mobile missile launchers, and adjust its tactics in anticipation of a possible resumption of attacks, according to Amichai Stein.
  • Vladimir Putin arrives in Beijing for talks with Xi Jinping as the Iran war offers Russia an opportunity to deepen energy links with China. Putin and Xi are due to meet tomorrow. BBG
  • Soaring borrowing costs could trigger a “correction” in the stock market, highlighting a growing disconnect between exuberant equities and bonds battered by worries over high inflation. FT
  • Financial market turbulence could force the Bank of Japan to go slow on the unwinding of its massive debt holdings, giving anxious bond investors some relief as surging yields lay bare worsening fiscal strains and inflation pressures. RTRS
  • Japan’s economy grew much faster than expected at the start of the year, supporting the case for further Bank of Japan interest-rate hikes, though the outlook remains highly uncertain due to the Middle East conflict. Japan's economy grew 2.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, exceeding economists' forecast for a 1.7% increase. BBG
  • Ukraine’s military has wrestled Russia’s much-larger army almost to a halt in recent months, having gained a tactical and technological edge. WSJ
  • The SEC is set to roll out a plan for trading tokenized versions of stocks on crypto platforms, people familiar said. The framework has raised concerns about market fragmentation and investor protection. BBG
  • Meta is reassigning 7,000 workers to new AI-related roles as part of a broader restructuring that includes planned staff cuts later this week. The company is also pursuing a $200 billion data center in rural Louisiana. BBG
  • Google and Blackstone will form an AI cloud JV, backed by an initial $5 billion equity commitment from the PE firm. BBG
  • US President Trump announced that the number of drugs available on TrumpRx is to be increased by nearly 7 times and that over 600 generics are to be added to TrumpRx.

Iran Headlines

  • US President Trump posted on Truth that he instructed Secretary of War Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Caine and the US military to hold off on the Iran attack that was initially planned for Tuesday after Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar requested him to do so, as serious talks are now taking place. Trump added that in their opinion, a deal will be made that is very acceptable to the US and the Middle East, while a deal will include no nuclear weapons for Iran, but he also instructed the US to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran on a moment's notice, in the event an acceptable deal is not reached.
  • US President Trump said 'hopefully, maybe forever' regarding the decision to delay the Iran attack, while he added that they will probably be satisfied if they can make a deal where Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon. Trump also stated that countries requested to put off the attack on Iran briefly and asked if an attack on Iran could be delayed 2-3 days.
  • US President Trump told The Post on Monday that he is “not open” to any concessions for Tehran after receiving the latest disappointing Iranian response on peace deal talks, while he said Iran knows “what’s going to be happening soon.”
  • US State Department spokesperson said President Trump prefers the diplomatic path and has kept this door open from the start, according to Al Jazeera.
  • Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and US forces exiting areas close to Iran are also included in the proposal.
  • Iranian Parliament spokesperson said Tehran is working on a legal framework for managing the Strait of Hormuz, Al Araby reported.
  • US officials told the NYT that Iran has taken advantage of the ceasefire to re-expose dozens of bombed ballistic missile sites, move mobile missile launchers, and adjust its tactics in anticipation of a possible resumption of attacks, according to Amichai Stein.
  • Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters commander warned the US and its allies against strategic mistakes, while he said Iran's forces have become ready and will respond quickly and firmly to any new aggression from the enemies.
  • Iranian Supreme Leader's military advisor Rezaei said the iron fist of Iran's armed forces and nation will force America to retreat and surrender.
  • Israeli media said the main reason US President Trump postponed attacks on Iran is the Pentagon's warning that Iran is strengthening its air defences, while senior Pentagon officials warned that Iran is enhancing its warplane detection capabilities and bolstering its air defences, according to Al Mayadeen. It was also reported that air defences were activated in Isfahan, according to Mehr News.
  • Unknown explosions last night in Bab al-Mandeb Strait halted vessel traffic for two hours, Far News reported. Sources cited note of "unusual silence" from global maritime and insurance authorities.
  • Israeli drone strike was reported in Al-Qarara, Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip. It was separately reported that Hezbollah announced it attacked Israeli soldiers in the town of Rashaf, southern Lebanon with drones, while the Israeli army issued an evacuation warning for a building in the city of Tyre, southern Lebanon.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Japanese Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kiuchi sees strong momentum in this year's wage negotiations and improvements in job conditions. Further said that effect of government steps slightly to underpin moderate economic recovery and must be vigilant to the impacts on the economy from the Middle East conflict. Japan’s government plans to postpone its summer power-saving request, according to Kyodo. New Zealand's Finance Minister said the government is to overhaul public service and target savings of NZD 2.4bln over the next four years, and will aim to lower government jobs to 55,000 by mid-2029 from 65,000 in 2023.

Top Asian News

  • Japanese Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kiuchi sees strong momentum in this year's wage negotiations and improvements in job conditions. Further said that effect of government steps slightly to underpin moderate economic recovery and must be vigilant to the impacts on the economy from the Middle East conflict.
  • Japan’s government plans to postpone its summer power-saving request, according to Kyodo.
  • New Zealand's Finance Minister said the government is to overhaul public service and target savings of NZD 2.4bln over the next four years, and will aim to lower government jobs to 55,000 by mid-2029 from 65,000 in 2023.
  • Japanese GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel (Q1) Q/Q 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.3%, Low. 0.1%, High. 0.7%).
  • Japanese GDP Growth Annualised Prel (Q1) 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 1.3%, Low. 0.4%, High. 2.9%).
  • Japanese Industrial Production MoM Final (Mar) M/M -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. -2.0%).
  • Japanese Industrial Production YoY Final (Mar) Y/Y 2.4% (Prev. 0.4%).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.7%) start Tuesday’s trade on the front foot, seemingly benefiting from Trump’s de-escalatory post. Trump announced that the US military is to hold off on the Iran attack that was initially planned for Tuesday after Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar requested him to do so, as serious talks are now taking place. However, he stated that they will be prepared to strike on a moment’s notice. The DAX 40 (+1.5%) is the clear outperformer, while the FTSE MIB (+0.2%) lags. European sectors highlight the positive bias. Media tops the sector pile, seemingly benefiting from continued upside in Publicis. Financial Services and Industrial Goods & Services round out the top 3 sectors. At the bottom of the pile lies Basic Resources (as precious metals pare Monday’s gains) and Chemicals. US equity futures print modest declines, ES -0.5%. Despite today's modest fixed bid, yields remain elevated and continue to weigh on the tech-heavy NQ (-0.8%). Despite the relative underperformance vs Europe, analysts see this as short-term due to Europe’s lack of IT sector, which has held the region back compared to South Korea and the US

Top European News

  • UK Unemployment Rate (Mar) 5% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 4.9%, Low. 4.7%, High. 5.1%). ONS: "Latest figures suggest the labour market remains soft, with vacancies at their lowest level in five years and unemployment higher than a year ago. The number of payroll employees continued to fall in the three months to March, while regular wage growth slowed further."
  • UK Employment Change (Mar) 148K vs. Exp. 107K (Prev. 25K, Low. 40K, High. 240K).
  • UK Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Mar) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.6%, Low. 3.4%, High. 3.7%).

FX

  • USD benefits from underperformance in peers, despite crude benchmarks being lower and the yield environment being more constructive. DXY is higher by three-tenths after bouncing off its 50DMA at 99.00. The session ahead is light, and sees remarks from Fed doves Waller and Paulson, alongside ADP weekly payrolls.
  • GBP is a little lower against the Buck and Euro as technical-driven outperformance on Monday is reversed. Focus recently has been on politics (Manchester Mayor Burnham said that changing the Fiscal rules was not an option), and on a downbeat UK jobs report. Cable currently resides at the bottom end of a 1.3387 to 1.3437 range.
  • USD/JPY topped Monday’s high (159.08), bringing intervention fears back in focus. USD/JPY has been edging higher throughout the last ten sessions amid reports of a supplementary budget and oil remaining high, with Japan a net importer.
  • AUD is the G10 laggard, seemingly looking to price in the weak Chinese data on Monday as Monday’s risk-induced rally pares. Alongside the fading of the risk environment, RBA minutes overnight indicated a wait-and-see approach among members that voted for a hike, reinforcing market pricing of just c. 5bps of tightening for June 16th’s meeting. AUD/USD resumes its slide from 0.7200 on Friday, looks now to 0.7100, around 10-15 pips below.

Fixed Income

  • USTs are firmer by around 6 ticks and currently trade at the mid-point of a 109-03 to 109-11+ range. Action ultimately dictated by Trump’s decision to delay strikes on Iran, after several Gulf countries suggested that serious talks were taking place. Nonetheless, risks remain, as Trump suggested that the US is prepared to launch a full-scale assault on Iran at a moment’s notice if an acceptable deal is not reached. Geopolitics aside, focus will be on the weekly ADP Employment Change metrics and Pending Home Sales; Fed speak via Waller is also due.
  • From a yield perspective, US yields have eased a touch from the prior day’s peaks; the 10yr now holds around 4.60% (vs Monday’s peak at 4.63%). Nonetheless, the yield still resides beyond the key 4.50% mark, where some analysts have speculated a decisive breach above this point could see the yield begin to spiral.
  • Gilts are outperforming vs peers, and are currently firmer by c. 80 ticks, trading with an 86.14 to 86.40 range. A trifecta of factors driving the action today: a) lower energy prices, b) Manchester Mayor Burnham (touted to challenge for PM) saying that changing fiscal rules would not be an option and c) a downbeat UK jobs report.
  • Bunds are firmer by around 15 ticks, and hold within a 124.18 to 124.41 range. EU-specific newsflow has been light this morning, with the German benchmark ultimately moving alongside peers. Focus later will be on some ECB speak, but perhaps more pertinently, attention will be on the EU’s meeting related to US tariffs. The main sticking point is Trump. Officials are working on developing clauses to protect the EU, through “Trump Proofing”: a) expires once Trump’s presidential term ends, b) deal suspends if Greenland is threatened, c) allows the EU to restore tariffs if there are significant domestic market disruptions. Should officials reach an agreement, documents will be sent for a full vote in the European Parliament by June.
  • Citi strategists says 5.5% may be the next key level for 30yr US Treasury yields after they rose to the highest since 2007.
  • Germany sells EUR 3.844bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.50% 2031 Bobl: b/c 1.32x (prev. 1.04x), average yield 2.85% (prev. 2.74%), retention 23.12% (prev. 20.9%).

Commodities

  • The main update was US President Trump delaying the planned Iran attack after requests from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, as serious talks are taking place. However, they remain ready to strike if an acceptable deal is not reached. Sources continue to outline that some form of military action remains likely, while explosions have been heard in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, with transit halted overnight. See the 08:29BST update for more.
  • WTI and Brent futures are softer intraday amid the pullback seen after US President Trump called off an attack on Iran that was planned for Tuesday following the request by Gulf nations. WTI Jul resides in a USD 102.12-104/bbl range, and Brent Jul in a USD 109.01-110.77/bbl range – both off worst levels. Dutch TTF trimmed earlier downside and trades firmer by ~1% at the time of writing, north of EUR 50/MWh. Analysts at ING, on US-Iran, said “One might think the oil market would become increasingly numb to these headlines. However, the scale of supply disruptions is significant and growing more concerning each day that oil flows remain halted.”
  • In terms of metals, spot gold and silver post losses as the DXY remains underpinned by inflation concerns emanating from elevated oil prices. Spot gold trades closer to the bottom of a USD 4,531-4,589.58/oz range after briefly topping yesterday’s USD 4,584.37/oz peak. Spot silver resides in a USD 75.72-78.89/bbl. Base metals are on a softer footing amid the inflationary concerns from elevated energy prices. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 13,485.98- 13,646.68/t range at the time of writing.
  • Australian PM Albanese said Australia secured over 600k barrels of jet fuel and that three cargoes of jet fuel from China are expected to arrive from early June.
  • Angola reportedly to cut July crude exports to 889k bpd.
  • The EU is set to unveil an action plan to bolster fertiliser supplies and mitigate food price inflation, the FT reported citing draft proposals.

Central Banks

  • RBA Minutes from the May meeting stated the board judged financial conditions would be somewhat restrictive after the May hike and that a hike would provide space to see how the Gulf conflict develops, as well as the response of households and businesses. Board considered whether to hike by 25bps or to keep rates at 4.1%, while it was stated that for future decisions, the board agreed monetary policy could not alter the near-term trajectory of inflation, and also agreed Australian economic growth is likely to be below potential for some time. Furthermore, the board will do what is considered necessary to meet inflation and employment mandates, while the majority emphasised that core inflation was projected above target for an extended period.
  • RBA Assistant Governor Hunter said risk of inflation expectations drifting higher is elevated, and the Middle East conflict is a clear external shock, adding that the recent rise in oil prices is particularly challenging to navigate.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:00 am: United States Fed’s Waller in Moderated Discussion
  • 7:00 pm: United States Fed’s Paulson Speaks on Economic Outlook

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

My mini world tour continues, and it's another rare ocean view. This time in Lisbon where I'm passing through for a conference. It really is a beautiful city. Well the parts that I've seen on my travels.  

As I watch the early morning waves crash gently into the harbor, markets have had a mixed 24 hours, with Trump’s post that he called off planned new strikes against Iran helping the S&P 500 (-0.07%) erase most of its intra-day decline towards the end of the session, while 10yr Treasury yields stabilised after touching their highest level in over a year at 4.63%. Brent crude also retreated from two-week highs but is still trading close to $110/bbl this morning and little changed from the end of last week. And the broader market mood is on the cautious side this morning, with US equity futures and most Asian markets losing ground.

We are now exactly six weeks into the combined truce and ceasefire, following 5.5 weeks of strikes and attacks. While my base case is that the absence of kinetic activity would not have persisted this long without US intent to secure a deal, the lack of an agreement—despite several false dawns— remains a source of nervousness.

In terms of the latest from the Middle East, the last major swing came late in yesterday’s US session as Trump claimed that he had called off an attack against Iran that has been scheduled for today after an appeal by leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. The news helped remove some of the risk premium that had built up over the course of yesterday, even though in the same post Trump also said that he ordered the US military to be ready for “a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached”. Later on, Trump said that he was asked to put off new strikes “for two or three days” as Gulf allies thought “they are getting very close to making a deal”, while he also stressed the aim of “no nuclear weapon going into the hands of Iran”.

Following Trump’s comments, Brent crude is trading -2.03% lower this morning at $109.84/bbl as I type. Shortly before Trump’s post it had traded as high as $112.72, the highest intra-day level in almost two weeks. Oil prices whipsawed earlier yesterday alongside conflicting headlines around the prospects for further strikes. First, came a positive reaction after Iran’s Tasnim news agency said the US had proposed a temporary waiver on oil sanctions. So that led Brent to fall below $107/bbl as investors latched onto signs of progress in the US-Iran discussions. But more negative headlines then began to come through before Trump’s post. For instance, Tasnim also reported a source who said that Tehran felt the US had “excessive demands and unrealistic positions”. And on the US side, Axios cited a senior US official who said the White House didn’t think Iran’s updated proposal was sufficient for a deal.

In Asia this morning, markets are on the softer side, with tech stocks not helping the mood. As I check my screens, the KOSPI (-4.12%) stands out as the largest underperformer, having fallen as much as -5.0% earlier in the session. Other moves are more more muted with the Nikkei (-0.42%) and the CSI (-0.49%) only slightly lower and with the Shanghai Composite flat. In contrast, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.93%) is defying the regional trend, alongside the Hang Seng (+0.39%). S&P 500 (-0.26%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.46%) futures are giving back some of the late recovery from last night.

The S&P 500 (-0.07%) ended the day with a marginal decline, with Trump’s post helping it recover from -0.75% down an hour before the close. After its sharp decline last Friday, the S&P still posted its worst two-day performance since March, albeit only down -1.31% in that period from Thursday’s record high. Tech stocks took a larger hit, with the Magnificent 7 (-0.64%) and the NASDAQ (-0.51%) seeing a more material pullback. But the broader mood was more positive, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 rising by +0.58%.

US Treasuries also saw a varied performance, with 2yr (-2.6bps to 4.05%) and 10yr yields (-0.6bps to 4.59%) erasing their intra-day increases, but 30yr yields (+0.7bps) inching up to a new post-2007 high of 5.12%. Aside from oil, a rise in yields had been supported by positive data yesterday, which suggested the US economy had continued its resilience into May. Indeed, the NY Fed’s services business activity hit a 16-month high of -5.8, whilst the NAHB’s housing market index was up to 37 (vs. 34 expected). 10yr Treasury yields are around +1.4bps higher again overnight trading at 4.60%.

Over in Europe however, markets put in a relatively stronger performance, with bonds and equities both rebounding. So 10yr bund yields (-1.9bps) came down to 3.15%, after closing at a post-2011 high on Friday, whilst OATs (-4.0bps) and BTPs (-4.2bps) fell back as well. On top of that, investors dialled back their expectations for ECB rate hikes, with 73bps priced by the December meeting, down -2.1bps on the previous day. And in turn, the prospect of fewer rate cuts helped to support equities as well, with the STOXX 600 (+0.54%) paring back its slump on Friday.

Here in the UK, gilts outperformed their European counterparts, which came as a spokeperson for Greater Manchester Andy Burnham ruled out changing the government’s fiscal rules if he gained power. Moreover, the spokesperson also ruled out exempting defence spending from the rules, which is something Burnham had previously floated. So that reassured investors who’d been worried that Burnham might lead to higher gilt issuance, particularly after his comments last year about being “in hock” to the bond markets. In turn, that led to a clear rally, with 10yr gilt yields (-7.4bps) closing at 5.10%, down from their post-2008 high on Friday. Moreover, other UK assets outperformed, with the FTSE 100 (+1.26%) advancing, whilst the pound strengthened +0.81% against the US Dollar. Nevertheless, incumbent PM Starmer continued to reject suggestions he’d stand down if Burnham won the by-election, reiterating to broadcasters that “I’m not going to walk away”.

Early morning data has showed that Japan's economy expanded at an annualised rate of 2.1% in the first quarter of 2026 (compared to the +1.7% anticipated), driven by enhanced consumption and robust exports, thereby bolstering the argument for additional interest rate hikes by the BOJ. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The report indicates that the economy gained momentum during the January-March period, prior to the full effects of the war in Iran becoming apparent.

Despite the bullish growth figures, the Japanese yen has weakened slightly against the dollar following the announcement. Overnight BoJ swaps remain relatively stable, indicating around a 77% probability that the central bank will increase rates in June. Yields on 10-year JGBs have risen by +4.5bps, trading at 2.76%, marking a fresh multi-decade high as we go to print.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include UK unemployment for March, Canada’s CPI for April, and US pending home sales for April. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Waller and Paulson, the ECB’s Villeroy, Lane and Makhlouf, and the BoE’s Breeden.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 07:58

Standard Chartered To Replace "Lower-Value Human Capital" With AI As Meta Layoff D-Day Nears

Standard Chartered To Replace "Lower-Value Human Capital" With AI As Meta Layoff D-Day Nears

The white-collar job-loss apocalypse, accelerated by AI, is increasingly concentrated in repetitive, data-intensive, and digitally native roles, with tech firms announcing layoffs one after another.

While 'D-Day' for Meta layoffs is Wednesday morning, the London-headquartered international bank Standard Chartered announced on Tuesday plans to cut 15% of its corporate roles (or about 7800 jobs) by 2030 as part of a broader efficiency push amid the adoption of AI.

STAN also raised its profitability targets, aiming for a 15% return on tangible equity by 2028 and roughly 18% by 2030.

"Drive productivity improvements to raise income per employee by ~20 percent by 2028, aided by a reduction in corporate functions roles of >15 percent by 2030," STAN wrote in a press release.

STAN CEO Bill Winters stated in the release, "We are investing in the capabilities that will compound our competitive advantages and drive sustainable growth and higher quality returns over time, with clear targets in place."

To achieve this, Winters explained: "We are scaling practical uses of automation, advanced analytics and artificial intelligence to streamline processes, improve decision-making and enhance both client service and internal efficiency."

During the earnings call, Winters provided more color on these plans, insisting, "It's not cost-cutting, it's replacing low-value human capital with financial and investment capital." The substitution of workers in favor of machines "will accelerate as we go forward into AI."

Here is Goldman analyst Gaelle Jarrousse's first take on STAN's move to reduce headcount to improve higher income per employee and returns:

Let's start with STANDARD CHARTERED CMD where the key punch line is Bill Winters mentioning that 'I can tell you in 2030, if we're generating 18%, I'm not going to be doing high fives with the team. I don't think that that's the potential of this bank.

But I'm not allowed to say that because the slide says 18% by around 18% by 2030.' It highlights the level of conservatism baked in the targets esp in the 57% Cost Income ratio.

The >15% ROTE target for 2028 (assuming 5-7% top line growth vs consensus at 5% and high teens EPS growth vs consensus at 18%) won't lead to earnings upgrades given consensus is at 15%.

However the 18% ROTE target for 2030 gives enough sustained growth and validates the thesis of a lasting growth story. There are not many banks offering c.20% EPS growth until 2030 with a clear narrative (and there not many banks giving you access to the Asian wealth story) and the multiple of STAN does not reflect that – REMEMBER the chart of EPS growth vs PE of last Friday, STAN screened very well on that, ie more re-rating is needed given the growth offered and the right type of growth, ie wealth deserving a higher multiple. STAY LONG.

Beyond STAN, 'D-Day' for Meta layoffs is tomorrow morning, and the Facebook and Instagram owner is expected to slash 10% of its global headcount, or about 8,000 employees, in the initial round as it swaps headcount for GPUs.

Take a look at Bloomberg story count data for "ChatGPT" and "layoffs" ...

Layoffs.fyi, a website tracking tech job cuts worldwide, reported that 73,212 employees have lost their jobs so far this year. For all of 2024, the figure was 153,000.

Labor-market disruption for white-collar workers has arrived with the rise of AI adoption. Goldman laid out in 2023 just how many jobs AI will take. That number is absolutely alarming for white-collar America, where many are saddled with student and credit card debt.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 07:45

BBC's Former News Director Says Trans-Bias & 'Progressive Madness' Drove Her Out

BBC's Former News Director Says Trans-Bias & 'Progressive Madness' Drove Her Out

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The BBC’s grip on impartiality continues to slip as one of its former top news executives publicly confirmed what critics have long argued: activist capture from within has turned the state broadcaster into a vehicle for narrow ideological agendas.

Fran Unsworth, director of BBC News from 2018 to 2022, has broken her silence, claiming she was effectively driven out by trans activists and the “progressive madness” dominating the corporation.

In a candid interview, she described an environment of bullying where editors avoided critical reporting on trans issues for fear of attacks from their own colleagues.

“Just dealing with the progressive editorial issues and the bullying around them all. It was incredibly difficult,” Unsworth said. She added that the atmosphere extended beyond trans topics, with staff no-platforming dissenting views and pushing “safe spaces” over open debate.

Unsworth’s remarks paint a picture of a newsroom where challenging the prevailing narrative on ‘culture war’ issues carried professional risks. Programme editors reportedly steered clear of stories that questioned aspects of the trans agenda, wary of backlash from activist-aligned staff.

This self-censorship contributed to what a leaked internal memo later described as “effective censorship” on the topic.

Her departure was hastened by the constant pressure. “I would actually say it drove me out,” she stated, highlighting how the bullying around “progressive editorial issues” made her position untenable.

This echoes earlier revelations about the BBC’s hiring practices. In 2024, the broadcaster made clear it would not hire candidates dismissive of diversity and inclusion policies, effectively screening out those skeptical of the dominant ideology.

Recruiters were instructed to reject anyone showing a lack of enthusiasm for these topics, ensuring ideological conformity from the outset.

Unsworth’s admission also lands amid ongoing scandals over the BBC’s handling of gender issues, including accusations of harming children through biased children’s programming.

In late 2025, over 650 families accused the BBC of harming children via a “constant drip-feed” of pro-trans material in shows and dramas. Parents detailed examples like Hey Duggee using “they/them” pronouns for a character aimed at five-year-olds, episodes of Doctors and Casualty promoting child transition narratives, and documentaries criticized for downplaying detransition regrets.

One parent group spokesman warned: “The constant stream of propaganda about gender and trans activism the BBC has transmitted has played a significant role in creating a dangerous culture for children.” They pointed to narratives linking gender questioning directly to suicide, which they said pressured families and ignored safeguarding concerns.

The BBC has defended its output by citing updates to style guides and efforts to reflect developments like court rulings on biological sex, but trust continues to erode.

The BBC’s obsession with identity politics has also produced content disconnected from everyday reality. A 2025 DEI training video on “microaggressions” went viral for its over-the-top portrayals of white colleagues as bumbling racists, complete with awkward accents and forced celebrations. Critics noted that no one in the real world behaves this way, highlighting the corporation’s bubble of performative wokeness.

Such materials reinforce the sense that the BBC operates in an alternate universe, more focused on enforcing sensitivity hierarchies than delivering impartial news or entertainment.

Unsworth’s exit and the surrounding controversies arrive as the BBC faces broader challenges, including declining audiences, falling trust, and questions over its future under new leadership. Leaked documents and parental complaints have repeatedly shown how activist influence skewed coverage, sidelining biological reality and dissenting voices in favor of Stonewall-aligned perspectives.

The pattern is clear: a public broadcaster funded by taxpayers has allowed internal cliques to dictate editorial direction, from hiring litmus tests to children’s shows pushing contested ideologies. This not only undermines impartiality but risks real-world harm by shaping public discourse—and young minds—around contested claims rather than evidence and balance.

It all underscores a pattern of institutional bias that prioritizes activist demands over journalistic balance and public trust.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 07:20

NY MTA, LIRR Unions Reach 'Fair Deal' To End Strike After Commuter Chaos Grips NYC

NY MTA, LIRR Unions Reach 'Fair Deal' To End Strike After Commuter Chaos Grips NYC

New York's MTA reached a tentative labor deal with five Long Island Rail Road unions, ending the first LIRR strike in more than 30 years. Roughly 3,500 workers walked off the job Saturday, sparking commuter chaos for several hundred thousand people who heavily rely on the train service.

"Tonight, the @MTA reached a fair deal with the five LIRR unions that delivers raises for workers while protecting riders and taxpayers," Governor Kathy Hochul wrote on X late Monday.

The good news is that LIRR service will resume at noon today. However, for the 300,000 people who rely on the service to get to work this morning, the disruption still appears to be ongoing.

LIRR confirmed that service will remain disrupted this morning because there is not enough time to get crews into position to run trains.

The lefty union behind the commuter chaos is the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen, which stated on X overnight, "The coalition of five labor unions, including BLET, today ended their 3-day strike at Long Island Rail Road after coming to terms on a tentative contract."

Related coverage:

Bloomberg noted, "The unions were seeking a 5% boost, or close to it, while the MTA offered close to 4.5% along with ways to find savings to help pay for the higher raise."

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 06:55

International Energy Agency Is Wrong To Forecast Coal's Demise

International Energy Agency Is Wrong To Forecast Coal's Demise

Authored by Tom Harris via The Epoch Times,

Activists would have us believe that coal is a dying energy source. But, thankfully for American coal states such as West Virginia and the Canadian provinces of Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia—all of which use millions of tonnes of coal every year to generate electricity—that is not even remotely true.

However, the world is burning more coal now than ever, reaching a record 8.85 billion metric tonnes annual consumption by the end of 2025. Since 2020, annual coal consumption has increased by 1.40 billion tonnes.

Most of this has come from China, of course, which makes up about 55 percent of global coal consumption (the United States makes up about 5 percent of global consumption). Although the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a decline in demand over the next five years, The Kobeissi Letter more realistically predicts that demand will continue to rise, and points out that “past forecasts of peak coal demand have repeatedly proven wrong.”

A graph on the IEA’s website that illustrates coal consumption (in metric tonnes, Mt) from 2000 to 2022, shows estimates for 2024 to 2026 that seem improbable.

Regardless, the IEA writes that increased demand for renewables is the primary cause for the estimated decline in coal consumption, and that “Global coal demand is expected to effectively plateau over the coming years, showing a very gradual decline through to 2030.” However, they also write that coal use is expected to increase in India by about 3 percent per year and in Southeast Asia by about 4 percent per year up to 2030.

In reality, we can’t expect China to slow its coal production anytime soon. Currently consuming about 3 billion tonnes annually, they will clearly dominate global trends in coal consumption in the years to come. Although the IEA also expects a slow decline in coal consumption in China over the next five years, with the gradual but marked decline of climate change alarmism worldwide and China’s ambition to expand its economy, this prediction doesn’t seem to hold much credibility either.

As The Kobeissi Letter states, coal remains in high demand, and the pipe dream of climate activists to kill coal doesn’t account for the security and convenience that this energy supply affords us. Like nuclear electricity—another power source that is vital to providing electricity for large portions of the world—the fuel for coal-fired power generation can be stored right on a power plant’s site for long periods of time, providing stable energy for society. We especially need coal during deep freezes because natural gas can falter in extreme cold due to “just-in-time” pipeline delivery. Gas flows can slow or freeze entirely, as seen in winter storms Uri (2021) and Elliott (2022), leaving grids vulnerable. And, not surprisingly, in each of these storms, wind and solar delivered very little, and sometimes no power at all, causing millions to lose electricity and causing hundreds of deaths from the cold.

CO2 Coalition energy expert Dick Storm says that “coal is indispensable” and that it is “the lowest cost proven source of primary energy for electricity generation ever in history.” The Canadian province of Ontario, where I live, proved this case well. In 2002, coal provided about 25 percent of the province’s power, and we enjoyed very low electricity rates. But in 2005, then-Premier Dalton McGuinty held a news conference and, pointing to the pile of coal beside him, said it was “old technology” and that, to save the climate and protect the air, Ontario would phase out all coal-fired electricity generation. This made no sense in light of the facts:

1. Coal is not a technology. It is a resource, and the degree to which it causes pollution when burned depends on the technology used to burn it. Reducing carbon dioxide emissions from a coal plant is unquestionably costly, difficult, and of course, unnecessary. Reducing real pollution is often well worth the price and far easier to accomplish with a coal station by using the latest pollution control technology.

2. Seen in a global context, Ontario’s emissions are trivial—one-quarter of Canada’s 1.6 percent of global emissions. So, no matter what one believes about the causes of climate change, McGuinty’s announcement and the province’s painful reduction to 0 percent coal-fired power were merely virtue signalling and showmanship. It had no impact on climate whatsoever.

It did, however, have a huge impact on consumer electricity rates, which, depending on the year, doubled or even tripled as coal was replaced with more expensive power, including a massive expansion of industrial wind turbines. Of course, soaring power rates are politically problematic, so the government decided to hide the increase in the tax base, and today’s rates are merely 50 percent higher than those in 2002. But we all eventually pay for this massive increase, just not directly on our power bill.

Renewable energy has only been able to survive thus far because it is heavily subsidized by tax dollars. These subsidies have, unfortunately, caused coal-fired power stations to be less profitable to operate, by comparison, compounded by the fact that regulations have crippled the industry. It is important to increase our expansion of coal plants, Storm tells us. 800,000 megawatts of new power generation, the equivalent of 80 New York cities, will be needed in the United States in the next 25 years to keep up with demand. This is simply not possible with renewable energy, and although nuclear and other conventional power will be significant players in this, coal will remain a steady, reliable power source to provide us with these vast amounts of power.

Rather than phase out coal, Saskatchewan should build more plants. Since Alberta phased out this important energy source, it will soon come knocking again begging for more power from Saskatchewan’s black gold.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 06:30

"Answering The Call": Ford Motor Eyes WWII-Style Production Push For Trump's War Economy

"Answering The Call": Ford Motor Eyes WWII-Style Production Push For Trump's War Economy

One month after we reported that the Trump administration was in talks with U.S. manufacturers about converting idle civilian industrial capacity into weapons production, as conflicts across Eurasia deplete critical weapons stockpiles, Ford Motor signaled Monday morning that it is prepared to support a Western defense-industrial mobilization.

Much like during World War II, Ford said it is exploring how its commercial vehicles and related technologies could help governments in North America and Europe quickly build up their defense in the most cost-effective way. 

"Traditional, purpose-built military hardware takes years to develop and costs billions. By using commercial, off-the-shelf solutions from Ford, governments can access world-class technology at a fraction of the time and cost," Ford wrote in a press release.

Ford said its trucks, such as the F-Series and Ranger, along with technologies like Pro Power Onboard, could support military mobility, transport, and field operations.

"We have always partnered with government customers in times of peace, crisis, and conflict to serve society. During World War II, Ford's assembly lines produced hundreds of thousands of aircraft, trucks, and engines for the Allied effort," Ford pointed out.

Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that not only Ford, but also GM, Aerospace, and Oshkosh were in talks with the Trump administration to convert civilian industrial capacity into weapons production.

The effort to boost the war economy is part of what Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has described as putting the defense industrial base on a "wartime footing."

Evidence of converting underused civilian industrial capacity has already been seen with the German automaker Volkswagen, which will soon transform its Lower Saxony factory from producing T-Roc Cabriolets to manufacturing parts for the Iron Dome missile interceptor system.

One major vulnerability is labor disruption. Far-left unions could weaponize strikes and other work stoppages to slow or derail America's defense-industrial buildup at a moment when conflicts across Eurasia, from Ukraine to Iran, are already drawing down critical weapons stockpiles.

We suspect other major U.S. manufacturers will soon issue statements similar to Ford's amid Trump's push for a booming war economy.

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 05:45

"The Political Shift Is Inevitable": AfD Leader Weidel Heralds New Polling High For Party

"The Political Shift Is Inevitable": AfD Leader Weidel Heralds New Polling High For Party

Via Remix News,

The latest Insa Sunday poll has given the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party a new record high for voter support. At 29 percent, up 1 point, the AfD has an even greater lead over the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), which fell 1 point to 22 percent.

A YouGov poll just last week showed AfD at 28 percent and the CDU/CSU at 22 percent.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel took to X to celebrate the news, pointing out that Germany’s current ruling coalition stands now at just 34 percent.

“The political shift is inevitable—we will put the interests of our country and our citizens back at the forefront!” she wrote.

This continues the downward trend for the CDU/CSU alliance, currently governing Germany in coalition with the SPD. Back in February 2025, the CDU/CSU and SPD together received almost 45 percent of the second-round votes. In mid-April, points out Junge Freiheit, they were still polling at 25 percent according to Insa, while the AfD reached 26 percent. Just a month earlier, the CDU and CSU were slightly ahead of the AfD.

Meanwhile, the Social Democrats (SPD) continue to weaken, dropping one point to 12 percent, behind the Greens, who gained 1.5 points to reach 14 percent. The Left Party now stands at 10 percent, down 1 point, and the FDP and BSW, at 3 percent each, would not even enter parliament. 

Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) has been under increasing pressure due to the ongoing economic stagnation, layoffs, bankruptcies, and energy crisis. There have even been calls for new elections, particularly from its coalition partner, the SPD.

As Remix News reported earlier this month, the SPD is upset over proposed cuts to social programs, backed by the CDU, to address Germany’s increasing budget deficit.

The SPD, however, is not Merz’s only problem, as a significant right-leaning faction of the CDU is increasingly unhappy with his performance and what they feel is the CDU’s inability to pass laws and reforms with the far-left SPD as its partner.

CDU MP Christian von Stetten, for example, reportedly told a business event recently that the coalition would “definitely not” last the full four years of its term.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 05:00

UBS Reactivates Supply-Chain Stress Watch After Detecting Alarmingly Rapid Deterioration

UBS Reactivates Supply-Chain Stress Watch After Detecting Alarmingly Rapid Deterioration

One week after Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc warned CNBC of a "new wake-up call" for global trade amid the ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and a deepening energy crisis that could intensify further in June, UBS analysts are out with a new note telling clients they have "reactivated" their Global Supply Chain Stress Index in response to increasingly alarming signals emerging across global logistics networks.

"Supply chain stress is rising at its fastest pace since the early pandemic," UBS analyst Pierre Lafourcade wrote in a note on Sunday.

Lafourcade explained that global supply chain stress is emerging quickly, with the index rising by 1.2 standard deviations in March and April, the second-largest two-month jump since July 2020.

"We are now reactivating it to assess disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict," he said, noting that the last time the index was published was in February 2023, or the period in which Covid snarled supply chains.

The Global Supply Chain Stress Index is surging again.

PMI delivery times are increasing again.

The full note can be read by Professional subscribers here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Related:

JPMorgan analysts warned that the world is spiraling toward a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of crude oil if the maritime chokepoint remains blocked for another four weeks.

With that said, June is only a few weeks away, and early indications suggest that continued disruption of the maritime chokepoint could begin to materially affect global trade next month, with risks extending well beyond that if the chokepoint remains shuttered.

Separately, with Brent back in triple-digit territory, UBS analyst Dimitrios Laloudakis pointed to surging yields worldwide:

US yields join G10 peers in estimating rate hikes for 2026. 2y yields comfortably above moving averages. Cross asset implications should drag equities lower, vol higher, and duration to selloff.

It appears something has to give if Hormuz remains choked by the end of the month.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 04:15

Pakistan Deploys Thousands Of Troops, Jet Fighter Squadron To Saudi Arabia

Pakistan Deploys Thousands Of Troops, Jet Fighter Squadron To Saudi Arabia

Via The Cradle

Pakistan has deployed 8,000 troops, a ​squadron of fighter jets, and an air defense system to Saudi Arabia under a mutual defense pact, Reuters reported on Monday, citing security and government officials.

The officials described the Pakistani deployment as a "substantial, combat-capable force intended to support Saudi Arabia's military if the kingdom comes under further attack," Reuters wrote.

Illustrative via Pakistan air force

Pakistan's military cooperation with ‌the Saudi kingdom is expanding amid threats by the US and Israel to renew military operations against Iran, which ceased following the announcement of a ceasefire on April 8.

During the war, Iran carried out attacks against US military bases and energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia in response to the kingdom's support for the US and Israeli aggression.

Saudi Arabia responded by launching numerous unpublicized strikes on Iran. However, Riyadh has sought in recent weeks to de-escalate the conflict, while Islamabad has served as a mediator in talks between Washington and Tehran.

The defense agreement signed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan reportedly requires both Islamic countries ⁠to come to each other's defense in the event of an attack.

Reuters noted that Saudi Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has previously suggested the agreement offers Saudi Arabia protection ​under Pakistan's nuclear umbrella.

According to the sources speaking with the news agency, Pakistan has deployed a full squadron of around 16 warplanes, including JF-17 fighters made jointly with China, two squadrons of drones, and around 8,000 troops. Pakistan has pledged to send additional troops if needed, as well as a Chinese HQ-9 air defense system.

Both countries benefit from the alliance, as Pakistan has a large military due to its decades-long conflict with India, while Saudi Arabia provides badly needed foreign currency to Pakistan's heavily indebted government.

Talks are reportedly underway to bring both Turkiye and Qatar into the Saudi–Pakistani alliance. 

Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif revealed during an interview with Hum News on 11 May that a deal to bring Turkiye and Qatar into the mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia is being “finalized.”

“If Qatar and Turkiye also join the existing agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, it would create significant cooperation in both the economic and defense spheres in our region and reduce external dependence,” Asif told Pakistan-based Hum News, adding that their inclusion would be “a welcome development.”

Last week, the Financial Times (FT) reported that Saudi Arabia has “floated” the possibility of reaching a “non-aggression pact” between Iran and neighboring states modeled on the 1975 Helsinki Accords, which eased tensions during the Cold War in Europe.

The Saudi-proposed pact for the day after the US-Israeli war on Iran ends reportedly has support from several European capitals, which view it as “the best way to avoid future conflict” and have urged Arab states to support it.

The British daily cites an unnamed Arab diplomat who says that such a pact would be welcomed “by most Arab and Muslim states, as well as by Iran,” although concerns remain about Israel's continued threats to reignite the war regardless of any deal.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 03:30

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