Charts Show Middle East Shockwave Rippling Through Energy, Air Travel, And Freight Networks

The Middle East conflict has triggered what the International Energy Agency earlier described as the largest oil supply disruption in global oil market history, as Iran continues to strike energy infrastructure across the Gulf. Against that deteriorating backdrop, Goldman analysts laid out how the shock is rippling through the global economy, disrupting oil flows, air travel, and freight markets.

Analysts led by Patrick Creuset said oil and transport markets have taken the hardest hit from the near-freeze in crude tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption has also spilled into air travel, with a sharp decline in flights across the Gulf, though the fallout has so far remained largely contained to the region. Air cargo between Asia and Europe, however, has been hit the hardest, given the large role Middle Eastern airlines play in global freight.

Impact summary:

Oil

Crude tanker transits across the Strait of Hormuz have largely stopped over the past week (9 March, Exhibit 1). Saudi Aramco commented with their earnings release (10 March) they would be ramping their East-West pipeline to Yanbu (Red Sea export terminal) to full capacity; our oil team assume 3mb/d of extra pipeline flows/capacity vs. 20-21mbd of pre conflict exports via Hormuz. Direct (cost) and indirect (potential demand destruction) effects of disruption to energy flows remain the main impacts to watch across our transport coverage. The price of very low sulfur marine fuel (VLSFO) for instance has roughly doubled vs. the Jan/Feb average Exhibit 5, while NWE jet fuel cracks hit record highs also roughly doubling jetfuel prices Exhibit 3. Europe holds commercial jetfuel stocks equivalent to a couple of weeks worth of consumption, on our estimates, with the majority of imports coming from refineries in the Gulf and India Exhibit 4.

Air travel

The main impact on air travel thus far has been a significant reduction in flights to and from the Gulf, with about half of the initial decline in volumes recovered in recent days Exhibit 6. This has translated into a low single digit impact at major European hubs in the days following the start of the conflict, which seems to have been at least partially recovered as of yesterday Exhibit 10. Overall we see a slight reduction in overall air travel volumes in Europe Exhibit 8 and US Exhibit 7, but no sign of a broader impact on travel sentiment so far. North Atlantic activity levels for example continue to look normal Exhibit 9. On fares, our trackers point to increases recently, with high single digit % sequential increases on the main routes across our covered airlines for Easter and May travel Exhibit 12; all else equal and assuming no hedging in place we estimate unit revenues would need to increase by mid to high teens % vs. 2025 levels to cover current jetfuel prices, with higher % increases required for the LCCs vs. flags.

Freight

Given the Middle East airlines account for a mid-teens % of global cargo volumes, air cargo capacity between Asia and Europe has been significantly reduced since the start of the conflict, in line with our first take last week. The initial impact on volumes flown is negative, given the roughly ~50% reduction in Middle East flights over the last week Exhibit 6; however with the end of the Chinese NY holidays last week underlying demand is likely to increase from a seasonal perspective, driving rates higher Exhibit 14. Manufactured and perishable goods trade is clearly most disrupted in the Gulf, with some albeit limited capacity to re-route container flows via terminals in the Gulf of Oman/ east of Hormuz, as well as multimodal solutions (overland, air). In container shipping, while there is some regional disruption/port congestion plus c.1% of the global fleet trapped in the Gulf, the impact on the capacity side from a global level is much more limited than e.g. covid or the Red Sea crisis. From a demand point of view, the Middle East accounts for about 4% of global container imports, and many services have been suspended. For affected cargo in transit carriers have added emergency surcharges, and the industry is also implementing fuel surcharges more broadly across the network in order to pass on the significant increase bunker costs (liners don't hedge but tend to have 4-6 weeks in the tank); while this is driving freight rates higher (futures, not actual rates as of yesterday Exhibit 17), the net impact of this conflict on container lines looks mixed overall and will depend on how global demand is affected, and how the conflict is resolved (given the impact this could have on also potentially reopening the Suez).

Creuset's note includes 80 charts around the world showing disruptions. Here, we'll focus on just a few, but Professional subscribers can view the full chartbook on our Marketdesk.ai portal.

VLCC rates on offer above covid highs

NWE jet fuel cracks hit record highs

Gulf air travel implodes

Air cargo volumes slide 

Tanker traffic on Hormuz chokepoint 

Certainly, the Middle East conflict has unleashed an energy shock that is now rippling across some transportation networks, while raising new concerns about stagflation. The key question is how insulated the U.S. economy will remain. As we noted on Wednesday, one growing risk is that fertilizer disruptions could evolve into a broader global food price shock.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 16:50

Nearly One-Third Of People Living In North America Believe That World Will End During Their Lifetimes

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

We live at a time when millions upon millions of us feel deeply unsettled. The news is filled with constant headlines about war, political chaos, economic problems and major natural disasters. A lot of people feel like humanity’s story is building up to some sort of a crescendo, and they are not optimistic about what that will mean.

In fact, a new study conducted by researchers at the University of British Columbia has discovered that nearly one-third of the people living in the United States and Canada actually believe that the world will end within their lifetimes…

Almost a third of people living in the USA and Canada believe that the world will end within their lifetime. According to new research, this could affect how they view the challenges facing society, though this very much depends on what kind of apocalypse the individual is envisioning.

I was quite surprised to learn that so many people believe that the end of the world is rapidly approaching, and so were the researchers…

“Belief in the end of the world is surprisingly common across North America, and it’s significantly influencing how people interpret and respond to the most pressing threats facing humanity,” said Dr. Matthew I. Billet, the study’s lead author who conducted the research as a PhD candidate in UBC’s psychology department. He is now a postdoctoral scholar at the University of California, Irvine.

The research draws on surveys of more than 3,400 people in the U.S. and Canada. In the U.S. national sample of 1,409 respondents, nearly one‑third said they believe the world will end within their lifetime.

Of course the world is not going to end any time soon.

But as global events spiral out of control, it will certainly feel like “the world is ending” to much of the population.

At this moment, the chaotic war that has erupted in the Middle East is causing emotions to run very high.

It is difficult for me to imagine how freaked out everyone will be if this war escalates even more.

Already, Iran has chosen to escalate matters quite dramatically by regularly using cluster munitions…

Hezbollah and Iran launched a coordinated strike strategy Tuesday, a national security expert claimed, as reports emerged that deadly cluster munitions were hitting Israel in synchronized attacks.

The developments unfolded on day 11 of Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign targeting Iran, marking a potential escalation in the widening regional conflict.

“Hezbollah has fully joined the war, and it looks like they are now very well coordinated with Iran,” Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute, told Fox News Digital while speaking from his bomb shelter near Tel Aviv.

Over and over again, we have seen cluster munitions rain down in Israeli territory.

The reason why cluster munitions have been banned by more than 120 countries is because they are specifically designed to cause large scale civilian casualties over a large area…

Fox News correspondent Nate Foy also said despite Israel’s strong air defense, half of the missiles are hard to defend against because half of the missiles are cluster munitions.

“The Iranian use of cluster missiles and the idea that they deliberately target civilians and civil facilities must be considered as a use of non-conventional weapons, and the American-Israeli response must be appropriate,” Michael urged.

Banned by more than 120 nations under the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions, the weapons are widely condemned for their broad-area, indiscriminate effects that often result in catastrophic civilian harm.

The Iranians have also chosen to escalate matters by deploying naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz…

Iran has deployed about a dozen naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported Wednesday citing two sources familiar with the matter.

One source said the locations of most of the mines were known but declined to say how the United States planned to address them. CNN first reported the mining of the strait on Tuesday.

Even if a way can be found to remove those mines, the Iranians will just continue hitting ships with drones.

In fact, earlier today I discussed the fact that the Iranians just hit three more cargo vessels in a 24 hour period.

Of course the U.S. and Israel have been escalating things too.

Just hours ago, U.S. Central Command issued a warning urging Iranian civilians to stay away from ports along the Strait of Hormuz because the U.S. military is about to start bombing them…

On March 11, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) is issuing a warning to civilians that the Iranian regime is using civilian ports along the Strait of Hormuz to conduct military operations that threaten international shipping.

This dangerous action risks the lives of innocent people. Civilian ports used for military purposes lose protected status and become legitimate military targets under international law.

CENTCOM urges civilians in Iran to immediately avoid all port facilities where Iranian naval forces are operating. Iranian dockworkers, administrative personnel, and commercial vessel crews should avoid Iranian naval vessels and military equipment.

The regime in Iran is going to be really upset when they begin losing their most important ports.

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In addition, there are unconfirmed reports that are claiming that the U.S. has just used the “Mother of All Bombs” against an underground missile storage facility…

As the widening war in West Asia continues to intensify, unconfirmed reports from local Iranian journalists suggest that the United States may have launched one of its most powerful conventional weapons against an underground military facility in central Iran.

The US Air Force aircraft, as reports suggest, hit underground installations near the city of Qods using the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, also called the “Mother of All Bombs” (MOAB). The purported strike allegedly targeted an underground missile storage complex, which is believed to be associated with Iran’s military infrastructure.

The Iranians have been claiming that they have been holding back their most powerful weapons for later use.

Instead of waiting for Iran to use them, it appears that the U.S. just tried to blow them up…

It is important to understand why the MOAB (Mother of All Bombs) may have seen its second operational use in history:

Iran was planning to manufacture around 200 missiles per month, with ambitions to ramp up production to 500. Within three years, such a facility could have produced over 10,000 missiles.

Imagine the devastating potential to terrorize Gulf states, Israel, and parts of Europe—especially as Iran developed longer-range missiles capable of reaching the mainland United States. Now, that key facility has been destroyed (“caput”).

I don’t think that this war is going to end any time soon.

The regime in Iran is still in power, they are still able to hit targets all over the Middle East with missiles and drones, and they are still able to paralyze traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

And the Iranians have absolutely no intention of giving up, because they intend to impose a very high level of pain on the United States and Israel before this is all over…

Iran believes there can be no end to the conflict until it believes Trump has been shown the economic, political and military cost is so high that it is not worth repeating.

As for Israel, it appears that regime change is still the ultimate goal.

In fact, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just told the people of Iran that once conditions are right, they will have a “once in a lifetime opportunity to remove the Ayatollah regime and gain your freedom”…

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wrote a message on his office’s official X account on Tuesday night local time, where he addressed the people of Iran, urging them to seize what he calls a “once in a lifetime opportunity to remove the Ayatollah regime and gain your freedom”.

“The Ayatollah [Ali Khamenei] is no more, and I know you don’t want him replaced with another tyrant,” Netanyahu posted.

“So you must act. We are creating the conditions for you to do so. When the time is right, and that time is fast approaching, we will pass the torch to you. Be ready to seize the moment!”

The signal has not been given yet.

But it is coming.

Personally, I am skeptical that unarmed protesters will be able to topple the regime.

I guess that we will see.

And I think that the Iranians still have quite a few surprises up their sleeves, and that could even potentially include attacks on U.S. soil.

According to ABC News, the FBI has warned that Iran “could retaliate for American attacks by launching drones at the West Coast”…

The FBI warned police departments in California in recent days that Iran could retaliate for American attacks by launching drones at the West Coast, according to an alert reviewed by ABC News.

“We recently acquired information that as of early February 2026, Iran allegedly aspired to conduct a surprise attack using unmanned aerial vehicles from an unidentified vessel off the coast of the United State Homeland, specifically against unspecified targets in California, in the event that the US conducted strikes against Iran,” according to the alert distributed at the end of February. “We have no additional information on the timing, method, target, or perpetrators of this alleged attack.”

The warning came just as the Trump administration launched its ongoing assault against the Islamic Republic. Iran has been retaliating with drone strikes against targets throughout the Mideast.

Can you imagine the panic that we would witness if Iranian drones started slamming into tall buildings in California?

It would be madness.

In the end, I do not believe that Iran will win this war.

But I do believe that the Iranians are fully capable of creating a tremendous amount of chaos.

We really are living in apocalyptic times, and much more mayhem is in our future.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 16:25

Judge Halts Construction Of ICE Detention Center In Maryland

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Federal authorities must stop construction of an immigration detention center in Maryland, a judge said on March 11.

Maryland Attorney General Anthony Brown, left, speaks as Gov. Wes Moore listens during a news conference in Baltimore, MD., on Sept. 24, 2024. Stephanie Scarbrough/AP Photo

U.S. District Judge Brendan Hurson imposed a temporary restraining order halting construction of the center near Williamsport in Washington County.

Maryland officials recently sued the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) over the facility, alleging authorities did not perform required steps under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), such as an environmental review.

“The State has shown that Defendants likely failed to comply with their obligations under NEPA,” Hurson said. “Defendants do not appear to have taken a ‘hard look’ at the potential environmental consequences of their plans for the Williamsport Warehouse.”

Hurson said that there is no evidence that authorities completed an environmental impact statement or environmental assessment, as is generally required under federal law. He said that the “slight inconvenience of a delay in construction” was outweighed by “ongoing and possible future irreparable harms” that the state faced absent a restraining order.

DHS did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.

The temporary restraining order is in place for two weeks.

Such orders can be rescinded by judges, allowed to expire, or upgraded to preliminary injunctions or blocks that remain in place as litigation proceeds.

DHS purchased a 54-acre warehouse in Williamsport for $102 million in January and was set to begin converting it into an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facility on March 6 as the government ramps up efforts on immigration enforcement, including deportations.

Planned work included installing perimeter fencing, installing exterior lighting, and modifying the sanitation system, according to a government notice.

The conversion was described in a complaint from Maryland Attorney General Anthony Brown as likely to harm Maryland’s natural resources and environment, including local waterways and endangered species.

He also said that authorities did not conduct an environmental review before carrying out construction and had provided little information about their plans to the state.

DHS has not yet filed any documents in the case.

“Today a federal court handed Maryland a critical victory, stopping construction that threatened our waterways, endangered species, and communities before irreversible harm could be done,” Brown said in a March 11 statement.

“Though temporary, this ruling stops the construction of this massive immigration detention center while our lawsuit continues to play out in court. We will not let DHS and ICE rush through the proper legal process in their haste to ramp up deportations. We will keep fighting to make sure the law is followed and Marylanders are protected.”

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Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 15:20

Musk Whips Out 'Macrohard' In Disruptive Tesla-xAI Bid To Shaft Software Companies

Elon Musk on Wednesday announced a joint project between Tesla and his AI startup xAI, which he dubbed "Macrohard" or "Digital Optimus" that can 'basically automate entire companies' by observing and intelligently simulating their functions. 

The way it works, per a Wednesday post on X: 

"Grok is the master conductor/navigator with deep understanding of the world to direct digital Optimus, which is processing and actioning the past 5 secs of real-time computer screen video and keyboard/mouse actions. Grok is like a much more advanced and sophisticated version of turn-by-turn navigation software."

So Digital Optimus is the 'instinct' while Grok is the 'thinking part of the mind' according to Musk. 

The setup will run "very competitively on the super low cost Tesla AI4 ($650) paired with relatively frugal use of the much more expensive xAI Nvidia hardware," and "will be the only real-time smart AI system." 

"In principle, it is capable of emulating the function of entire companies. That is why the program is called MACROHARD, a funny reference to Microsoft." -Elon Musk

Macrohard >> Microsoft

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 25, 2021

It gets even more wild; Musk says it works "in all AI4-equipped cars, so your car can do office work for you when not driving," and he will deploy millions of dedicated Digital Optimus units at Supercharger stations.

Oh and it works in all AI4-equipped cars, so your car can do office work for you when not driving.

We’re also deploying millions of dedicated Digital Optimus units in the field at Superchargers where we have ~7 gigawatts of available power.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 12, 2026

Grok itself suggested 10 use cases;

1. Auto data entry from invoices/docs. 
2. Real-time code fix from error messages. 
3. Deal hunting while shopping online. 
4. Contextual email response generation. 
5. Seamless enterprise software ops. 
6. Auto video edits from timeline. 
7. Live stock trade execution. 
8. Tutorial step automation. 
9. Instant security threat spotting. 
10. Entire company workflow emulation. 

According to Musk, Digital Optimus will be ready to rock in 6 months. 

xAI was acquired by SpaceX last month in an all-stock deal that valued the rocket maker at $1 trillion and xAI at $250 billion, which comes ahead of a potential SpaceX IPO later this year. 

h/t Capital.news

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 15:00

US Knows Location Of Most Iranian Sleeper Cells Inside America, Trump Says

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump said on March 11 that his administration knows the location of most Iranian sleeper cells in the United States.

President Donald Trump waves as he boards Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews, Md., on March 11, 2026. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Joint U.S.–Israeli strikes killed many top leaders in Iran, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and denigrated the country’s military, prompting concerns that Iranian undercover terrorist cells, or sleeper cells, may act inside the United States.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Sen. Ted Cruz have both publicly warned of a heightened risk of terrorism in recent days.

When asked about reports of an internal government bulletin warning of an Iranian cell in California and a question regarding how many sleeper cells are in the United States at the moment, Trump said, “We know where most of them are; we’ve got our eye on all of them,” adding that “a lot of people came in” through the border policies of the previous administration.

Earlier this month, Abbott warned of potential sleeper cells in Texas after a Senegalese man fatally shot three people and injured more than a dozen people at a bar in Austin, Texas. A law enforcement official told The Associated Press that the man, Ndiaga Diagne, was wearing clothing featuring an Iranian flag and the words, “Property of Allah.”

Earlier this week, Cruz told a reporter that the “risk of terrorism right now is quite high” as he made note of the Austin shooting and another alleged terrorist attack in New York City over the past weekend.

In the New York incident, two people were arrested following the attack in which improvised explosive devices were thrown.

On March 12, Iran’s new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, issued his first statement on the conflict in the Middle East, saying that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should be used as leverage, and that attacks on Iran’s Gulf Arab neighbors will continue. Mojtaba Khamenei, who is the son of Ali Khamenei, has not yet made a public appearance.

The statement from Mojtaba Khamenei, according to Iran’s state-run PressTV, said that the “will of the people is to continue effective defense, and their presence on the scene must be maintained.” He added that the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for oil and natural gas transport, “must remain closed.”

A banner depicting the Iranian regime's new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, in Tehran, Iran, on March 11, 2026. Khoshiran/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

Khamenei said he will “will not abandon the pursuit of justice for the blood of our martyrs,” according to PressTV. “The revenge we seek is not limited to the martyrdom of the great leader of the revolution but extends to every member of the nation who is killed by the enemy,” he added.

Earlier on March 11, Trump said the war with Iran is “not finished yet.” He said that Tehran’s air force and navy have been destroyed, adding there will be “more of the same” coming to the country.

“Right now, they’ve lost their navy. They’ve lost their air force. They have no anti-aircraft apparatus at all,” he said. “They have no radar. Their leaders are gone, and we could do a lot worse.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 14:40

Apparent Vehicle-Ramming Attack And Active Shooter Situation Unfolds At Michigan Synagogue

FBI Director Kash Patel says agents are at the scene of what appears to be a vehicle-ramming attack and an active shooter situation at Temple Israel Synagogue in West Bloomfield Township, Michigan.

FBI personnel are on the scene with partners in Michigan and responding to the apparent vehicle ramming and active shooter situation out of Temple Israel Synagogue in West Bloomfield Township, Michigan. @FBIDetroit

— FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) March 12, 2026

Local media outlet WXYZ reports that the incident at Temple Israel Synagogue occurred around 12:30 p.m. local time. The synagogue is located off Walnut Lake Road near Drake Road in West Bloomfield.

BREAKING: Car crashes into Temple Israel in West Bloomfield, Michigan, in what police are calling an "active situation."

According to local reports, a vehicle crashed into the Jewish synagogue before shots were fired.

Oakland County deputies say an individual purposely drove… pic.twitter.com/ys3RvVRnkP

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) March 12, 2026

The Jewish Federation of Detroit said it is aware of a "security incident" at Temple Israel.

Here's the statement:

"We are aware of a security incident at Temple Israel. We are advising all Jewish organizations to go into lockout protocol - nobody in or out of your building. More information to follow."

Statement from Michigan State Police:

"We are asking community members to stay away from the area to allow for a police response. Troopers are also increasing patrols at other places of worship in the district."

The attack comes as U.S. terrorism fears run high amid 12 days of U.S.-Israeli bombing in Iran.

*Developing...

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 14:00

Social Security Payment Adjustment Predicted To Be 2.8 Percent In 2027, Group Says

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A seniors group said it is forecasting the cost-of-living adjustment for next year’s Social Security payments to remain steady at 2.8 percent as U.S. officials released the latest consumer inflation data on Wednesday.

Blank Social Security checks are run through a printer at the U.S. Treasury printing facility in Philadelphia, Pa., on Feb. 11, 2005. William Thomas Cain/Getty Images

The Senior Citizens League on Wednesday released its forecast adjustment for 2027’s Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments.

“That would be the exact same as last year’s COLA of 2.8 percent, a far cry from the 8.7 percent COLA issued in 2023 to help benefits keep pace with pandemic-related inflation, which seniors continue to see as a top issue,” the group said, according to a news release.

Government inflation data for the months of July, August, and September compiled by the Social Security Administration (SSA) is used by the agency to produce the COLA for the next year’s payments. The SSA usually announces the COLA in October following the release of September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Last month, the group also predicted a 2.8 percent COLA for next year’s payments, which would be the same as the COLA that went into effect for 2026.  

The seniors league said that with “lagging COLAs and Social Security’s funding creeping into dangerous territory,” it has found that many seniors have “lost faith in Congress” to act on the program. It also said it found that three in four seniors don’t believe Congress will be able to act on reports saying that Social Security will go insolvent by the early 2030s.

“Even before potential benefit cuts, most seniors think their benefits are falling behind inflation,” the league said Wednesday, citing its own research. Some 58 percent of seniors think inflation will increase their spending and deplete their retirement savings early.

Previously, the group has called for the SSA to stop relying on the Consumer Price Index for Americans who are aged 62 and older, known as the CPI-E. The SSA uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, to calculate the payment adjustment.

“Years of lackluster COLAs and a looming Social Security insolvency crisis, with its 24 percent automatic benefits cuts, puts a double squeeze on seniors,“ said Senior Citizens League Executive Director Shannon Benton in a statement Wednesday. ”Older Americans already feel like their benefits don’t keep up with inflation, so this risks putting them further and further behind, pushing many into poverty.”

Earlier in the day, the CPI report from the Labor Department rose 0.3 percent last month after gaining 0.2 percent in January. In the 12 months through February, the index advanced 2.4 percent, matching January’s increase, and reflecting last ​year’s high readings dropping out of the calculation. The increase in the CPI was in line with economists’ expectations.

The inflation data released Wednesday covered a period before the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, prompting the country to fire missiles and drones at its oil-producing neighbors and threatening to cut off the crucial Strait of Hormuz. The attacks, which were launched on Feb. 28, have boosted oil and gas prices.

Data from AAA show that the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline increased to $3.58 on Wednesday, or an increase of around 4 cents from Tuesday. The price is up around 35 cents from a week ago and more than 60 cents from a month ago.

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Solid 30Y Auction Stops Through Despite Drop In Foreign Demand

After two mixed coupon auctions this week, including a subpar 3Y and a strong 10Y, moments ago the Treasury concluded the week's coupon issuance when it sold $22BN in 30Y bonds in another solid auction. 

The paper priced at a high yield of 4.871%, above the 4.750% in February and the highest since last July's 4.889%. It also stopped through the When Issued 4.878% by 0.7bps, the 4th consecutive stop through in a row.

The bid to cover was 2.452, down from 2.662 but above the recent average of 2.452.

The internals were a tad weaker, with Indirects buying 63.4% of the auction, down from 69.9% in February and below the six-auction average of 66.6%. Directs took down 27.2%, higher than the average 23.0%, and Dealers were left with 9.36%, up from last month's record low 5.88% but below the recent average 10.4%.

Overall, this was a solid if not stellar 30Y auction, which considering the mauling the long-end has been subjected to - note the 10Y is now trading at 4.24%, up sharply from 3.97% two weeks ago - it was a very respectable result.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 13:21

Bitcoin Has A Golden Opportunity With AI Agents, It's Time To Build

Authored by Matt Carallo via BitcoinMagazine.com,

For all of bitcoin’s life, it has been fighting an uphill battle against fiat currencies that mostly do the job of being money. Obviously, fiat has plenty of issues, but when it comes to impacts immediately visible to everyday people in much of the world, bitcoin isn’t 10x better. Some may even conclude that they would prefer a system based on neutral money to government-rigged ones, but entrenched fiat systems work well enough that few want to deal with the hassle of constant conversion. With the rapid growth in agents’ capabilities, a huge gap has opened that bitcoin has a shot at filling. Instead of competing with entrenched interests as you would with fiat, in the agentic payments field, everyone is starting from zero.

In a recent post on Spiral’s Substack, I pointed out that all of the payment standards being developed for AI agents haven’t yet gotten off the ground. Credit cards won’t work in a world where automated tooling is making purchases. The web is filled with captchas and heavy investments in blocking bots, rather than enabling their use for commerce. Even if they offered payment methods that agents could use, few merchants today have websites that agents can reasonably navigate. No matter what payment method agents ultimately use, it will require every merchant to adapt to a new world.

With no one company owning both the agent and merchant sides of the marketplace, this leaves a wide-open opportunity where it’s still anyone’s game. Better yet, with the popularity of open-source agents today, no company owns much of the purchasing side at all! If the bitcoin community plays its cards right, there’s a good shot at a large part of the future of commerce flowing over open rails not controlled by any single company.

There’s still a lot to build, however, and nearly every payments industry player is trying to position itself to take the crown. Visa is working on an “Intelligent Commerce” product, OpenAI and Stripe announced the Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP), Google announced AP2 and Coinbase announced an extension of it for crypto – x402. The bitcoin community’s lack of central planning makes responding with their own options more chaotic and harder to follow, but that’s also its strength: lots of people trying lots of different approaches to achieve the same goal are more likely to succeed than a single, focused approach that might be wrong.

With Lightning surpassing a billion dollars in monthly transactions and Square enabling Lightning for its in-person merchants, it seems the technology is finally here that will let bitcoin cross the chasm and become everyday money. Some ideological merchants have been accepting bitcoin for years, and as we continue to integrate bitcoin wallets into agents, we’ll create yet more reasons for every merchant that wants to sell things to join in. But for that to work, bitcoiners have to step up and use the tools at their disposal. If people aren’t trying to buy things with bitcoin, merchants won’t care.

Luckily, these days, you don’t need code to build tools that find merchants accepting bitcoin payments. You don’t even have to sell your stack to buy things with bitcoin. Install an agent, give it a wallet, give it some bitcoin, and tell it to go buy your monthly beef tallow subscription. Tell it to email merchants it wants to buy from and ask them to support bitcoin. Point it to the Bitcoin Merchant Community and have it explain to any merchant it comes across that it wants to pay them without Visa taking a cut but wasn’t able to.

Thanks to extensive existing work, bitcoin is already one of the best ways to enable automated online commerce. Instead of merchants having to fill their sites with captchas to prevent bots from using stolen credit cards and dealing with chargebacks, many bitcoin payment processors can provide merchants with local currency within a day. Instead of being exposed to the risk that an operator’s single private key could seize their stablecoins, merchants can choose from many payment processors, whether foreign or domestic. This competition drives down fees and means we’re not building new payment rails on a platform that will inevitably seek higher rents once its dominance is cemented.

These issues aren’t top of mind for most, but we must get the new rails right. Stablecoins look great at first glance, but moving to a world where one company (Coinbase) owns both the platform (Base) and earns all the interest on the currency’s float (USDC) where payments are made is not a recipe for long-term success. Once everyone is locked into using one payment method, switching away as the operator increases fees won’t be practical. It doesn’t matter whether the protocol agents use to communicate with merchants is based on some “open standard.” If the vast majority of agents have funds on only one platform and the vast majority of merchants accept funds on only one platform, switching will be impossible.

While bitcoin has come a long way on its journey to becoming a reserve asset, it is only beginning its path towards everyday money. Bitcoin reaching escape velocity on the first does not imply that the second is guaranteed; in fact, far from it. With so much competition from every payments industry player, not to mention stablecoins, there’s a lot of outreach and work to be done to build payment momentum. Still, we can’t let this opportunity pass us by. If you believe commerce should happen on neutral money rather than corporate gatekeepers, it’s time to get to work.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 13:00

Foreign Hacker Cracked Into FBI's Epstein Files In 2023, Was 'Disgusted' At Child Sexual Abuse

A foreign hacker broke into a server at the FBI's New York Field Office and 'compromised files relating to the FBI's investigation of the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein' in 2023, Reuters reports. 

U.S. Attorney Geoffrey Berman announces charges against Jeffery Epstein in 2019. Photo: Stephanie Keith/Getty Images

According to the FBI, the intrusion was an "isolated" cyber incident - though not to be confused with a different cybersecurity oncident involving a sensitive internal network used to manage wiretaps and FISA warrants. 

"The FBI restricted access to the malicious actor and rectified the network. The investigation remains ongoing, so we do not have further comments to provide at this time," the agency said in a statement. 

Reuters' source claimed that the intrusion 'appeared' to be carried out by an individual cybercriminal as opposed to a foreign government (source: trust us bro, we're here to help). 

The New Hack

The official story: The hack occurred after a server at the Child Exploitation Forensic Lab in the FBI's NY Field Office was inadvertently left vulnerable by Special Agent Aaron Spivack - who was attempting to figure out how to handle digital evidence within the bureau's system. 

A timeline written by Spivack and included in the large cache of Epstein documents released earlier this year said the break-in happened ​on February 12, 2023. It was discovered the following day when Spivack turned on his computer and discovered a text file warning him that his network had been compromised, according to that document.

Further investigation turned up traces ‌of unusual activity ⁠on the server, the document said, adding that the activity "included combing through certain files pertaining to the Epstein investigation.” -Reuters

The report does not say which specific files were accessed, whether the hacker actually downloaded anything, or who the hacker was, nor could Reuters determine what overlap, if any, the affected files had with the recent DOJ Epstein file drops.

The hacker expressed 'disgust at the presence of child abuse images on the device and left a message threatening to turn its owner over to the FBI,' not realizing that they had accessed the actual FBI. They eventually convinced the hacker, who joined a video chat where they flashed their law enforcement credentials in front of a web camera. 

Spivak says he's being made "a scapegoat for the intrusion," and that conflicting FBI policies and poor guidance around informational technology were to blame.  

Interestingly, Spivak was mentioned in an Epstein files email from after the financier's death, which was sent to multiple recipients. In, someone says:

Hi team,

Aaron Spivak from the FBI (cc'd) has a new file for the Maxwell case that he needs to send to us. Would one of you please coordinate with him to get it via USAfx, then let me know when we have it?

Thanks so much,

EFTA00154980

The FBI breach was first reported by CNN and Reuters on February 17, however the Epstein connection was made by the French magazine Marianne. 

Epstein, who was recording his many 'guests' according to photos and testimony, pleaded guilty in 2008 to soliciting sex from an underage girl, and was later found dead in his jail cell in 2019 after his prison guard googled him shortly before he was found, after depositing so much cash in her bank account that the bank filed suspicious activity reports. Then there was that mysterious 4chan post 38 minutes before Epstein's death had been officially announced - not only announcing the death, but suggesting that Epstein was 'switched out.' 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 12:40

Deutsche Bank Dumps After Flagging $30 Billion Exposure To Private Credit

Yet another canary in the ever growing coalmine that is private credit appeared this morning as Deustche Bank's annual report flagged a significant €26 billion ($30 billion) exposure to private credit, an asset class that’s grappling with fund redemptions, scrutiny of underwriting standards and the impact of AI on some borrowers such as software makers.

As the slow-motion train-wreck gathers steam (most recently with Morgan Stanley, Cliffwater, and BlackRock gating investors in their private credit funds), investors are searching various financial entities balance sheets for exposures with the giant German lender itself warning:

"Failures of a select number of sub-prime lenders in the U.S. increased investor focus on risks associated with private credit and raised wider concerns around underwriting standards and fraud risk."

The report showed the private credit portfolio increased to €25.9 billion of loans at amortized cost, from €24.5 billion in 2024. Its loan exposure to the technology sector, including software, accounts for €15.8 billion at amortized cost, up from €11.7 billion.

Bloomberg reports that the lender said it is not exposed to "significant risks" related to non-bank financial institutions, but that it could face potential indirect risks through interconnected portfolios and counterparties. While identifying private credit as a "key risk", the report did not mention any losses or provisions tied to the private credit exposure, which represents about 5% of its loan book. 

Bloomberg reports that, according to people familiar with the matter, the German firm is part of a group of lenders who, since last month, have been unable to sell about $1.2 billion of loans backing the acquisition of a software provider in a rare hung deal.

Deutsche Bank shares are down 8% on the day (the biggest drop since Liberation Day , last April) to their lowest since July 2025...

Finally, to really comprehend the scale of this crisis - which, for now, is being forced off the proverbial front-pages of market coverage by the impact of Trump's Iran War - everything you wanted to know but were afraid to ask is here... and remember, we've seen this pattern before...

pic.twitter.com/eeH6fPjt6A

— @Yield Curve Ghost (@yieldcurveghost) March 12, 2026

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Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 12:00