Michigan And New York Drive Jump In Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims Near 2-Year-Lows

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time rose to 209k last week, rebounding off the lowest levels since 1969...

Michigan and New York saw the largest surge in initial jobless claims last week, while Puerto Rico and Ohio saw the biggest weekly declines...

Continuing jobless claims, however, dipped back below 1.8 million Americans, clearly trending lower again...

Combined with Friday's disappointing payrolls print, the labor market appears to remain in the 'no hire, no fire' regime.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 09:07

The post July CPI Comes in on Target: A Quick Note on Wages and Prices appeared first on CEPR.

SpaceX Surges Following First Lockup Expiry After Musk Taunts Shorts

SpaceX shares have jumped 35% over five sessions and 22% since Elon Musk responded to our X post on the "massive SPCX shorting," which cited S3 data. He said, "I try to warn them, but they just double down ..."

The post-earnings squeeze has pushed SPCX well above its $135 initial public offering price, easing concerns that future lockup expirations could overwhelm demand, which was certainly the talk of the town across institutional desks and on CNBC.

About 911.5 million shares became eligible for sale on Aug. 6, more than the number issued in SpaceX's record $86 billion IPO in June.

Ahead of Aug. 6, Peter Singlehurst, head of Baillie Gifford's private companies team, commented on the first round of lockup expirations, saying, "We've never seen anything like it. We've never seen anything of this scale, and we've never seen a lockup phased in this way," adding, "We're in uncharted waters."

SpaceX staggered its lockup expirations across nine dates to mitigate potential market impact. As many as 319 million additional shares will be released Aug. 20, followed by similarly sized blocks over the coming months. Musk's 6.4 billion shares remain restricted until June 2027.

Related:

• Mapping SpaceX's Lockup Expirations: HSBC Calculates When The Shares Could Hit The Market

HSBC's Lockup Timeline

via HSBC

"Once investors realized after that first day that it's not going to go into free fall, then they realized they could kind of go back and reassess what happened in the quarter and realize that things are moving along," said Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, which holds SpaceX shares.

The stock had tumbled before last week's first expiration, though traders attributed much of that decline to higher-than-expected artificial intelligence spending disclosed in SpaceX's first earnings report as a publicly traded company. Better-than-expected revenue and a smaller loss helped shares recover once fears of insider selling.

Musk told investors that AI/rocket company could reach an annual revenue run rate exceeding $100 billion by year-end and generate $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, or possibly 2029.

"The earnings release was pretty surprising to the upside, and I think that's the antidote to shares coming on the market," said Andrew Plum, managing partner and investment committee head at Loxahatchee Capital, which holds SpaceX shares. 

Plum noted, "You can have very good financial news coming from the company that's going to attract new buyers at these levels, which will allow those shares to exit at a reasonable price and not to put too much pressure on the stock."

Here's how Wall Street currently views the stock:

Looking ahead, UBS analyst Gavin Parsons provided color on the next Starship launch, slated for late August: 

While SpaceX has not yet officially scheduled test Flight 14, an FCC permit application sets 8/28/26 as a target launch date - aligned with earnings call commentary targeting late August for the flight. Per Elon Musk, Flight 14 will target orbit, deploy operational Starlink V3 satellites, and attempt an upper stage/Ship catch. We do not expect a booster catch attempt but see this possible with Flight 15 - a milestone critical to achieving full and rapid reusability. As SpaceX achieves Starship milestones, it enables the ramp-ups in both Connectivity and AI, the primary drivers of growth. Watch the launch via SpaceX stream, read up on our Buy thesis in our Initiation Report, read our Flight 13 recap, and see below for more Flight 14 detail.

Primary test objectives are likely to include the successful launch, achieving orbit, deploying operational Starlink V3 satellites, and catching the upper stage Ship.

• Date: The FCC permit application for Flight 13 originally targeted 5/29, and the flight occurred 7/24, so this is just one indicator that a launch could occur in August. Flights slip for many reasons, but the cadence is generally accelerating, as late August would be a five week turnaround. Elon suggested daily Starship flights is possible within 2027; this would be upside to our more conservative estimate of 32 flights in 2027.
• Curiously the FCC application states "The 1st stage booster will return to the launch site" and does not reference the 2nd stage, which the Flight 13 application did.
• The heat shield problem is solved per Elon (in regard to full and rapid reusability), which he suggested is the single biggest problem to achieving that capability. We expect iterative improvement to continue but the intact tiles on Ship 40 are clearly visible on the vehicle.
• Starlink V3 operational deployment: unclear exactly how many satellites will be deployed, but we think somewhere greater than the 20 on Flight 13 but below the 60 we estimate Starship will eventually have the capability to carry. Elon indicated 1,000 operational V3 satellites is possible within 1H27 - as with our more conservative launch assumption (which is the bottleneck) - this would be upside to our 540 estimate if achieved.

Status of the equipment

The test flight stack will likely be comprised of Booster 21 (Super Heavy booster) and Ship 41 (Starship upper stage).

• Booster 21 is awaiting engine installation in Mega Bay 1. Stacking was completed in late June and cryogenic proof testing was completed on July 20th. We do not.

Professional subscribers can read more on SPCX here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 08:15

Futures Rise, Just Under Record High Ahead Of PPI Report

Futures are higher again, although trading in a narrow range for the past week just below all time highs, with Tech flat following disappointing earnings from CSCO. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures add 0.2% while Nasdaq futures are unchanged as Cisco shares dropped 6.4% in premarket trading after earnings failed to impress. Elsewhere, Semis are flat, Memory is lower, with Mag7 / Software trading up. Cyclicals and Defensives are trading higher with weakness in Energy / Materials; AI theme remains bid. Price action in Asia was upbeat and again characterized by bubbly tech enthusiasm just days after the last Korean bubble popped, with benchmarks in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan all advancing, and the Kospi re-entering a bull market, up 20% from its late July lows. European stocks are grinding higher with the Stoxx 600 up 0.2%. Brent crude is down 1.7%, pausing its recent rally. Newsflow remains light and the impasse over the Strait of Hormuz is dragging on. Weaker energy prices are dragging US yields lower across the curve with more price data due today via PPI metrics. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat as the low vol environment in FX markets continues. USD/JPY is steady following a report that the government is supportive of a faster BOJ hike. Spot gold is down 0.6% and back on a $4300/oz handle. JPM says to keep an eye on the Retail investor as the bank's flows data show an uptick from 4%-ile to 64%-ile but with a shift away from Tech to macro themes, eg, gold. Today's US economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims and July PPI (8:30am). Fed speakers scheduled include Cleveland Fed’s Hammack (8:15am) and Richmond Fed’s Barkin (8:40am)

In premarket trading

 

In other corporate news, Anthropic is in talks to buy the artificial intelligence startup Decart AI for about $6 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. Kenneth Dart’s Candle Lake launched a mandatory cash takeover offer for Evolution valuing the Swedish betting company at about 132 billion kronor ($13.8 billion). 

Futures rise as a benign, inline CPI print kept the path clear for equities, while a powerful rally in Asian chip stocks - South Korea’s Kospi has now surged roughly 22% from its July low - has handed US tech a strong lead-in. The question for the session is how broadly that strength holds up once US trading gets underway: Cisco is sliding pre-market after its first full-year AI revenue forecast underwhelmed investors given the scale of its order book, while Cerebras is getting smashed despite raising its annual sales outlook, as traders questioned how quickly the AI infrastructure boom will translate into revenue. 

As Bloomberg notes, investors are increasingly discerning between companies already turning the data-center boom into revenue and those where they are still being asked to look further out. The reaction to Cisco and Cerebras suggests the next batch of AI earnings may face a higher bar. Headline orders and exposure to the capex boom may no longer be enough on their own, with investors likely to focus more closely on how quickly demand converts into revenue, what it does to margins and whether earnings can keep pace.

Spending remains huge and demand remains real. But if that dispersion keeps widening, the next leg of the AI trade will be driven by companies that can actually explicitly deliver on it.

Attention later in the day will turn to producer price data, which can serve as a leading indication of consumer inflation. Traders will also be watching the results of a 30-year Treasury auction, with the $25 billion offering tipped to price at the highest interest rate in 25 years.

Headline PPI likely grew 0.2% in July, but Bloomberg Economics expects details in the report to show pockets of easing inflationary pressure. 

“Things are going to get much more expensive, and that’s going to be a challenge for central banks going forward,” said Michael Hewson, a senior market analyst at iForex. 

In politics, Iran reorganized its military to be more aggressive abroad as talks on ending the war with the US remain mired in stalemate, a sign that Tehran is preparing for a protracted era of regional conflict.  Brent crude slipped to about $87 a barrel on Thursday. It’s still far from erasing a 12% surge in the previous six days as a deal between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains out of reach.

Citigroup strategists raised their full-year earnings forecast for S&P 500 firms, and said revenue trends at the AI capex spenders “should help provide a floor for the AI-influenced portion of the index.” The team led by Scott Chronert boosts EPS target by ~4% to $365. Yet while strong second-quarter earnings were supercharged by “paper gains” in AI investments, this poses risk that losses in those same investments may weigh on quarters ahead, especially for mega-cap tech stocks, according to Ned Davis Research.

European stocks are grinding higher with the Stoxx 600 up 0.2%, boosted by strong corporate earnings and as an easing of Federal Reserve rate hike bets added to positive sentiment.  Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Adyen shares rose as much as 14%, the most since April 2025 and after the stock lost more than a third of its value from the end of last year to Wednesday’s close
• Mandatum climbed as much as 11%, the most since Feb. 2025, following the investment management firm’s second-quarter results
• Autostore shares rose as much as 27% after the maker of automated storage and retrieval systems delivered a strong beat across the board in the second quarter and outlined revenue guidance for the year that surpassed estimates
• Maersk shares rose as much as 8.7%, hitting their highest level since August 2022, after the shipping giant significantly beat estimates in the second quarter and hiked its earnings guidance for the year
• TKMS gained as much as 12% to a new record high, adding to the stock’s strength after Wednesday’s results, as Bernstein raises its rating on the naval shipbuilder to outperform from market-perform
• Intrum shares rose as much as 15% after analysts at DNB Carnegie reinstated coverage of the Swedish credit management service provider with a buy rating following its recent rights issue
• Pandora rose as much as 6%, the most since early May, as the Danish jewelry maker exceeds expectations in the second quarter
• Swissquote dropped as much as 12%, the most since May 2022, after the Swiss online broker lowers its full-year outlook due to weak crypto income
• Antofagasta shares fell as much as 6.2%, the most in nearly a month, after the copper miner reduced its production guidance citing weather disruption at its Los Pelambres mine in Chile
• Orsted shares fell as much as 3.5% after the Danish offshore wind developer’s second-quarter results
• HelloFresh shares fell as much as 3.4% after the meal kit provider reported another decline in orders in the second quarter and said full-year revenue growth was likely to come in at the lower end of the guided range

Price action in Asia was upbeat and again characterized by tech enthusiasm, with benchmarks in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan all advancing. Asian stocks advanced, led by chipmakers, after US inflation came in line with expectations and eased concerns of an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate hike.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.1% to the highest since July 6, led by South Korea’s SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. The nation’s Kospi Index rose as much as 4.8%, pushing the gauge into a technical bull market. Major indexes in Japan, Taiwan and China also advanced. South Korean and Japanese technology stocks “are benefiting in part from this positive movement” after the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 gained, said Hiroshi Namioka, chief strategist at T&D Asset Management, adding sentiment is improving after the US CPI data. The renewed buying in tech and chip shares comes as US tech earnings are making investors more upbeat that the momentum in AI-rally will continue after the selloff in the past few months. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat as the low vol environment in FX markets continues. USD/JPY is steady following a report that Japan’s government is supportive of a near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan, with the next move likely either in September or October, according to people familiar with the matter.

• USD/JPY steadied at 159.42; Japan’s government is said to support faster BOJ rate hikes
• EUR/NOK rose as much as 0.4% to 10.9856; Norway’s central bank kept borrowing costs steady for a second meeting
• NZD/USD falls as much as 0.6% to 0.5821, leading G-10 losses against the dollar, after a drop in New Zealand’s two-year inflation expectations
• GBP/USD dropped as much as 0.2% to 1.3474; The UK economy unexpectedly expanded in June

In rates, treasuries are near session highs in early US trading with oil prices down about 2%. This week’s curve-steepening move extends as long-end tenors lag ahead of $25 billion 30-year new-issue bond auction at 1pm New York time. Treasury yields richer by up to 3.5bp across belly of the curve, which outperforms, steepening 5s30s by around 1bp vs. Wednesday’s close; spread is widest since May 20 ahead of the 30-year bond auction, providing additional concession that may help the sale. US 10-year yield near 4.67% is about 3bp lower on the day, outperforming bunds and gilts in the sector by 0.5bp and 2.5bp. This week’s Treasury auctions conclude with $25 billion 30-year new issue set to draw the highest yield for the tenor since 2001; Wednesday’s solid 10-year note sale tailed by just 0.1bp. IG credit new-issue slate is empty so far; Wells Fargo led a five-item, $6.1 billion docket on Wednesday following the busiest two-day stretch since January. Wednesday’s issuers paid about 5bp on offerings that were 3.9 times covered. Thursday’s economic data slate includes weekly jobless claims and July PPI, and scheduled Fed speakers include Hammack and Barkin.  

In commodities, Brent crude is down 1.7%, pausing its recent rally. News flow remains light and the impasse over the Strait of Hormuz is dragging on. WTI crude oil futures are approaching $81/bbl vs session high near $83, supporting Treasuries. Weaker energy prices are dragging US yields lower across the curve with more price data due today via PPI metrics. Spot gold is down 0.6% and back on a $4300/oz handle.

Today's US economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims and July PPI (8:30am). Fed speakers scheduled include Cleveland Fed’s Hammack (8:15am) and Richmond Fed’s Barkin (8:40am)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• SpaceX has surged 35% after its first lockup expired, adding about $500 billion in market value. BBG
• Prices for Japan’s corporate goods continued to rise at an elevated pace in July, keeping high cost pressure on companies, as central bank officials continue to consider whether to proceed with additional interest rate hikes to contain inflation. BBG
• Anthropic investors expect the AI start-up to float at a valuation of $2tn or more in October, a figure that would eclipse SpaceX and make the AI lab’s debut the largest ever initial public offering. FT
• Japan’s government supports a near-term BOJ rate hike, probably in September or October, people familiar said. Traders took note, raising the odds of a 25-basis-point move next month to about 75% and briefly lifting the yen. BBG
• The US is set to sell $25 billion of 30-year bonds at the highest borrowing cost since 2001. Lofty financing costs are feeding through to the broader economy, adding to pressure on Donald Trump ahead of the midterms.
• South Korean retail investors must now complete a week-long course before they can start trading in single-stock funds, as regulators tighten restrictions on products blamed for exacerbating wild swings in one of the world’s most volatile stock markets. FT
• Global food supplies come under threat as Russia ramps attacks on Ukraine ports and ships in the Black Sea. RTRS
• The UK economy unexpectedly expanded 0.3% in June boosted by sunny weather and World Cup football. Over the whole of the second quarter, it grew 0.4%. BBG
• Colombia’s government asked the US to join its fight against drug gangs, authorizing joint military operations against so-called “narco-terrorism,” Pete Hegseth said. BBG
• The Mexican government is pushing the U.S. to lower tariffs on North American automobiles as part of conversations over reworking the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, according to people familiar with the matter. The move is a counterproposal to the Trump administration after its push to require more American-made parts in vehicles. WSJ
• US President Trump signed a memorandum authorizing US law enforcement to use cyber tools to target criminal organizations operating in foreign jurisdictions, according to The White House.
• The US race to compete with China on lithium runs into water battles, with Trump-backed plans to build production of critical elements undercut by community resistance: FT.
• BofA Total Card Spending (w/e Aug 8th) +6.2% Y/Y (prev. 4.7%); the rebound in spending over the past 3 weeks is consistent that the mid-July slump was a blip

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as the region took its cue from the mild positive handover from Wall Street, where equities were underpinned by earnings, and September rate hike bets were unwound after in-line CPI data. ASX 200 bucked the trend amid various earnings releases, while RBA Assistant Governor Kent stuck to the hawkish-leaning script in which he noted the possibility of rates increasing further if risks materialise, but acknowledged evidence suggests that monetary policy in Australia is somewhat restrictive, and that the tightening earlier this year is working. Nikkei 225 rallied amid the tech momentum and following softer-than-expected PPI data for Japan. KOSPI outperformed as renewed semiconductor strength lifted the index into a technical bull market. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp diverged, with sentiment initially dampened in Hong Kong as participants reflected on earnings, including mixed results from Tencent, while gains in the mainland were contained after the PBoC reiterated its support pledges in its quarterly implementation report, but refrained from 7-day reverse repo operations for the third consecutive day.

Top Asian News

• RBNZ plans a paper on modernising New Zealand's payment system, including potential changes to the current framework

European bourses are firmer across the board, outside of the FTSE 100 given that 19% of the index is trading ex-divs. The positiveness follows on from the constructive tone overnight in Asia. Despite choppiness in China, Lenovo surged some 22% after the Co. reported a 43% increase in revenue to USD 26.94bln, beating expectations of USD 22.33bln. Post-earnings, the CEO said they are to achieve the USD 100bln annual revenue goal ahead of schedule and announced that they are working with Nvidia (NVDA) to launch an AI PC powered by the RTX chip later this year. Sectors point to a more mixed picture. Banks top the sector pile, followed by Consumer Products & Services and Food, Beverages & Tobacco. Basic Resources is the clear sector laggard, with Chemicals and Energy printing modest losses.

Top European News

• UK GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q2 QQ) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%).
• UK GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q2 YY) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 0.9%).
• UK GDP (Jun MM) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.0%).
• UK GDP (Jun YY) 1.1% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 1.2%).

FX

• USD stabilises just below 100.00 after gains on Wednesday despite US CPI triggering a small dovish repricing. ING opines the USD strength seen after the data is likely a function of traders rebuilding longs as the set of July data comes to a close ahead of PPI today. Another potential factor could be this week's quiet markets, which could have triggered some carry demand, especially as the recent data do not imply a clear Fed policy direction. Today, DXY is flat within a narrow 99.91-100.08 range after facing resistance at 100.05.
• JPY saw some strength after Bloomberg sources indicated the Takaichi government is said to support a faster BoJ rate hike. A report which has convinced markets, with interest rate futures now implying a 75% probability of BoJ tightening in September. This could be added to should these remarks come from Takaichi herself. USD/JPY fell c. 30 pips to a 159.18 base, before paring some of the move, now sitting around 159.40.
• NOK saw some weakness as while the Norges Bank left rates unchanged and keeping the door open to further tightening, it signalled inflation progress in the statement. If this progress is reflected in September's statement, it could imply a removal of the tightening bias and as such has led to the trimming of NOK longs. Despite this, the bank remains slated to hike in September, a view held by Nordea and SEB. EUR/NOK was choppy on the announcement, initially falling 0.2% to a 10.90 base, before reversing the move to a peak just above 10.97.
• NZD is the G10 laggard after soft one year and two year inflation expectations. Kiwi saw pressure throughout the APAC session, rebounding slightly now after surpassing the 100 and 200 DMAs in NZD/USD, reaching a 0.5820 trough.

Fixed Income

• Once again, a contained start for fixed income. Major macro updates relatively light, and nothing that changes the narrative for the complex. Today, the focus is on US PPI for July, which will inform/update the calls ahead of PCE after Wednesday's CPI; as a reminder, the series sparked a modest dovish reaction in near-term Fed pricing.
• USTs flat in 108-15 to 108-23 parameters, looking to PPI as mentioned before Fed's Barkin (2027) and Hammack (2026), and while both have spoken recently and updated view post-CPI will be pertinent.
• Bunds in-fitting with the above, newsflow for the bloc has been and is scheduled to remain light. Currently a few ticks firmer in 124.65-83 parameters.
• A similar picture for Gilts, with no lasting reaction at the open to the morning's GDP series which, in short, was stronger-than-expected for the GDP components aside from an in-line Q2 Q/Q print. However, the series is caveated by a weaker-than-expected breakdown for June and downward revisions to the May GDP series.

Commodities

• WTI Sep and Brent Oct futures are subdued amid a lack of notable US-Iran-related updates. On diplomacy, Pakistan's key mediator has held a second meeting with Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi and is seeking to extend the 60-day truce, according to an informed source cited by Al Arabiya. On the flip side, the Strait of Hormuz authority rejected US claims and said the waterway remains blocked until Iran's conditions are met, according to Press TV.
• WTI currently resides in a USD 81.64-83.30/bbl range, with prices now under yesterday’s USD 82.40-84.35/bbl. Brent resides in a USD 87.30-89.07/bbl range vs yesterday’s 88.10-90.07/bbl range. Dutch TTF is similarly subdued and back under EUR 60/MWh, with focus in Europe on no storage replenishing ahead of winter, and against the backdrop of Middle Eastern issues.
• Precious metals consolidate amid a lack of macro updates ahead of US PPI. Spot gold trades on either side of its 100 DMA (USD 4,387/oz) in a current USD 4,364-4,450/oz range. Spot silver similarly gives back yesterday’s gains (and more), with the precious metal under USD 64.50/oz vs yesterday’s 66.80/oz high.
• Base metals are also lower across the board amid the summer lull. Elsewhere, Antofagasta lowered its full-year 2026 copper production guidance to 625–655kmetric tons (vs prior from 650–700ktons) following a precautionary weather-related shutdown at its Los Pelambres mine in Chile. 3M LME copper hovers around the USD 14k/t mark in a current USD 13,949.58-14,133.43/t range at the time of writing.
• Romania's Nuclearelectrica has begun to to disconnect the final nuclear reactor, due to the continued low Danube level.

Trade/Tariffs

• Mexico is pressing the US to reduce tariffs on North American autos as part of discussions over reworking the USMCA, according to people familiar with the matter cited by WSJ.
• Indian Trade Ministry said they are actively in talks with the US on pending trade issues.

Central Banks

• Japanese PM Takaichi's government is said to support a faster BoJ rate hike, while market sources say the BoJ could raise rates in September or October, according to Bloomberg.
• Norges Bank maintained its rate at 4.25%, as expected; may still become necessary to raise the policy rate. On inflation, the statement said that slower inflation is welcome news, but inflation is still too high, and it is too early to conclude that the inflation outlook has changed materially. The Committee judges that a restrictive monetary policy stance is still needed to bring inflation down to target within a reasonable time horizon.
• RBA's Kent said the Board sets the level of the Cash Rate it judges will achieve low and stable inflation and full employment, while he added that borrowing costs have increased, mortgage payments have risen and conditions in the established housing market have turned down. Kent stated evidence suggests that monetary policy in Australia is somewhat restrictive, and that the tightening earlier this year is working, but also noted the possibility of rates increasing further if risks materialise.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• A White House official said US sanctions and a naval blockade have left Iran completely bankrupt, and that President Trump has many tools to pressure Tehran in the coming months, according to Al Jazeera citing media reports.
• The Strait of Hormuz authority rejected the US' claims and said the waterway remains blocked until Iran's conditions are met, according to Press TV.
• Iran’s Paramilitary Head Basij said the Strait of Hormuz is “under Iran’s control and management”, Fars News reported.
• Pakistan's Defence Minister met with Iran's ambassador to Islamabad and called for strengthening bilateral cooperation with Iran, according to IRNA.
• Yemeni Armed Forces announced strikes on Saudi ships and military sites, according to Press TV.
• US President Trump's administration criticised Israeli Defence Minister Katz's remarks about maintaining Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon, stressing the comments contradict commitments Israel made under framework agreement with the US and Lebanon, according to Axios.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia hit Ukraine's Izmail port, with port infrastructure is on fire following the Russian attack, according to local authorities.
• Ukraine's military said they hit Russia's oil refinery in Bashkortostan, some 1,300km from the border.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Aug 8 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 202k, prior 199k
• 8:30 am: United States Aug 1 Continuing Claims, est. 1794k, prior 1801k
• 8:30 am: United States Jul PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.3%
• 8:30 am: United States Jul PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: United States Jul PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 4.9%, prior 5.5%
• 8:30 am: United States Jul PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 4.1%, prior 4.7%

Central Bank Speakers

• 8:15 am: United States Fed’s Hammack Speaks in Moderated Discussion
• 8:40 am: United States Barkin Speaks on Economic Outlook

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

For Sale: One pair of eclipse glasses. One careful owner. Used exactly once. Given yesterday’s scramble to get hold of a pair, these could prove to be a superb long-term investment for the next equivalent event to yesterday. The date? Well, the next solar eclipse visible from the UK that’s bigger than yesterday’s arrives on 3 September 2081. If you’re prepared to hold for even longer, the next total solar eclipse over the UK is on 23 September 2090.

Rewinding 64 years, for the last 24 hours, the broad market story has been a modest eclipse of Fed-hike fears, even as the Middle East backdrop has darkened again. US inflation came in broadly as expected in July, which was enough after Friday’s weak employment report to reduce the urgency for another rate increase. The result was a modest rally in front end Treasuries, while another strong performance from semiconductor stocks left the broader S&P 500 (+0.26%) within touching distance of a record high. In fact, in Asia this morning, chip stocks have also continued to boost the KOSPI’s (+4.46%) performance, with the index now up around +22% in the last 10 days.  However, long-dated yields barely moved, oil remained close to $90/bbl, European gas jumped and gold climbed as hopes for a rapid US-Iran agreement continued to fade.

The main event was the US CPI report, where headline prices rose by +0.1% month-on-month in July and +3.4% year-on-year. Core CPI increased by +0.2% on the month and +2.5% on the year, with the latter matching its slowest pace since March 2021. It was all in-line with consensus but that still makes it two consecutive relatively encouraging core inflation reports and, when combined with last week’s weaker employment data, leaves less pressure on the Fed to act immediately in September.

There were some reassuring details beneath the headline. Energy and gasoline prices fell for a second consecutive month, grocery prices (-0.1%) declined for the first time since March and supercore inflation rose by a modest +0.2% mom. However, it wasn’t an entirely clean disinflationary report. Core goods prices (+0.2%) saw their largest monthly increase since last September as computer software and accessories prices rose +21.2% year-on-year, their largest increase on record. With memory chips increasingly being diverted towards data-centre demand, it is an interesting reminder that the AI investment boom is not only supporting growth and equities but may also be creating inflation in parts of the consumer technology supply chain. 

For the most part, markets focused on the benign headline of the CPI print. Pricing of a September Fed hike fell from 48% to 40%, the lowest it has been since the June Fed meeting shifted the market perspective on hikes. But the overall repricing was modest, with the amount of hikes priced by year-end falling by -1.9bps to 27bps. So less a decisive all-clear on inflation than potential permission for the Fed to remain patient. Our US economists maintain their call for a Fed rate hike in September, though the CPI print together with last Friday’s mixed jobs report reduce the urgency for imminent action.

That distinction showed up clearly in the Treasury curve. The 2yr yield fell -1.4bps to 4.20%, but the 10yr yield inched up +0.5bps to 4.69%, closing about +3bps above its pre-CPI levels. And at the very long end, the 30yr yield rose +1.7bps to 5.26%, closing less than 2bps from the post -2007 high it reached on July 31.

So the CPI report eased concerns about the next Fed move without doing much to resolve the longer-term concerns around deficits, supply, and term premium. That will remain relevant as the Treasury sells $25bn of new 30yr bonds today, with the auction expected to produce the highest yield for a new 30yr issue since August 2001. Yesterday’s 10yr sale had seen $42bn of bonds issued at the highest yield since 2007 at 4.68%. Ahead of that 30yr auction, Treasury yields are a little lower overnight, with the 10yr down -2.4bps.

One reason for continued caution in rates markets is the situation in the Middle East as Iran and the US appear to harden their positions. A Revolutionary Guard general said yesterday that Iran has reorganised parts of its military as part of an “offensive doctrine”. By contrast, US President Trump posted on social media around the European close that the US has “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz as he also talked up the US naval blockade and called Iran “all talk and no action”. In another sign that talks between the US as currently deadlocked, Pakistan’s foreign ministry suggested that the larger peace process has stalled.

While there is little sign of agreement over control of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief or the terms under which maritime traffic might normalize, oil flows through Hormuz have improved a bit from the worst point of the disruption, in part as shuttle transfers have played an increasing role. So that’s helped limit the extent of the upward pressure on oil prices, with both Brent crude (+0.08% to $88.98/bbl) and WTI (+0.08% to $83.27/bbl) little changed yesterday. And they are trading slightly lower this morning, though that still leaves them +6% higher so far this week.

European natural gas was the larger energy mover yesterday, surging +3.89% to €61.02/MWh and taking its gain for the week to +9.86%. In other inflationary news, wheat prices rose +3.57% after a key Russian grain export port on the Black Sea was damaged by Ukrainian drone strikes. With this backdrop, the 1yr euro inflation swap (+1.5bps) rose to a two-week high of 2.43%, even as its US counterpart fell -7.3bps to 1.90% following the CPI print. That said, European sovereign bonds saw muted moves, with yields on 10yr bunds (+0.2bps), OATs (+0.1bps) and gilts (+0.7bps) inching higher, while BTPs (-0.8bps) edged lower.

Meanwhile, US equities were the clearer beneficiaries as concerns over imminent Fed hikes eased. The S&P 500 (+0.26%) closed just -0.12% below its record high from August 7, while its equal-weighted equivalent (+0.16%) reached a new high of its own. Both the Nasdaq (+0.54%) and the Russell 2000 (+0.61%) saw larger gains, while the Mag-7 (-1.05%) lost ground. With a CPI risk event being avoided, there was also a sense of an August lull taking hold, as the VIX volatility index fell to its lowest level since January (-0.73pts to 14.55pts).
The main equity excitement remained in semiconductors, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up +2.49%. That leaves the index up +75.1% year-to-date and +18.7% from its low on July 29 though still -15.3% beneath its June record. The latest gains have been led by stocks benefitting directly from AI spending, underpinned by another strong set of AI-infrastructure results. CoreWeave (+19.28%) and Super Micro (+19.02%) both soared yesterday following their upbeat outlooks on Tuesday evening. Nebius (+34.14%) then added to the positive mood before yesterday’s US open, reporting a +454% year-on-year rise in revenue to $582m, alongside stronger-than-expected margins. Demand for AI computing remains exceptionally strong, even if the escalating cost of supplying it continues to grow just as quickly.
Tencent’s results after the Hong Kong close also offered a positive revenue message out of China, with +11% sales growth, though its shares are down -3.81% this morning as profits were weaker-than-expected as the company stepped up AI capex spending. As a result, the Hang Seng (+0.05%) is broadly flat.

Looking at the broader market moves in Asia this morning, the subdued US CPI release and continued tech-rally are also propelling indices forward. South Korea’s KOSPI (+4.46%) has now recovered from its late July lows, putting the index into a technical bull market. Elsewhere, the Nikkei 225 (+1.75%) CSI 300 (+0.49%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.42%) are also advancing. Only the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.39%) has pulled back this morning. 

European stock markets were softer yesterday. The Stoxx 600 fell -0.16%, ending a run of 7 consecutive gains. The CAC 40 lost -0.46%, with the DAX (-0.23%) and FTSE 100 (-0.10%) also slipping. Nevertheless, the major European indices remain very close to recent records, with all four indices within 1% of their highs.

In other asset classes, gold continued its recent rebound, rising +0.87% to $4,408/oz. Gold is now up +8.95% since the end of July, though remarkably it is still up only +2.06% year-to-date. 

Turning ahead to today, the main attention will be on the US PPI release for July after yesterday’s CPI print. As a reminder, our US economists expect headline (+0.2% vs. -0.3%) and core (+0.3% vs. +0.2%) to come in close to their CPI counterparts. But as ever, the focus will be on categories like health care services, airfares, and portfolio management which feed into core PCE, because the Fed officially target the PCE measure of inflation. So with pricing for the next Fed meeting still in the balance, all these prints are likely to get a lot of attention. 

In terms of the rest of the day ahead, outside of US July PPI, we'll see initial jobless claims, UK Q2 GDP, EU industrial production. Central bank events include the Norges Bank decision, while the Fed’s Hammack and Barkin will speak. Applied Materials will be reporting its earnings today.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 08:00

Treasury Proposes Tax-Free Employer Contributions To Trump Accounts

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The Department of the Treasury on Aug. 11 issued guidance on employer contributions to Trump Accounts, proposing rules for how companies can run a valid contribution program for their employees.

President Donald Trump speaks during the Trump Accounts summit at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium in Washington on Jan. 28, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

A Trump Account is a savings and investing account designed to help children get a kickstart to reaching financial wellness and can be opened in the name of any individual younger than 18 with a valid Social Security number.

American children born between 2025 and 2028 get a one-time deposit of $1,000 to start off. The account functions much like a nondeductible individual retirement account (IRA) and is invested in index funds. After the child reaches age 18, the account works much like a traditional IRA.

Employers can contribute up to $2,500 tax-free per year to an employee's Trump Account. The latest guidance proposes allowing businesses to set up a Trump Account employer contribution program if they maintain a separate written plan document for such an initiative, the Treasury said in a statement.

The plan must clarify which classes of employees are eligible to participate in the program, according to an IRS proposal published in the Federal Register on Aug. 11. It must specify the rules governing employer contributions, including the amount of contributions that can be made.

An employee can exclude contributions from an employer in a taxable year when filing returns if contributions are within a certain limit. For 2026 and 2027, the limit is set at $2,500. The threshold will be adjusted for taxable years after 2027, according to the notice.

The notice also proposes allowing employees to make pre-tax contributions to Trump Accounts of their dependents through a salary deduction.

According to the notice, a Trump Account contribution program set up by an employer will only be considered valid if it strictly follows the terms of the written plan.

When enrolling employees in the contribution program, employers can rely on certain self-certifications provided by workers. The employee certification should be in writing. It must state the account beneficiary and their date of birth.

Employers must not "rely solely on an employee certification to establish that the recipient account is a valid Trump account," the notice said. The employer should use a "reasonably designed" method to verify that the contribution they make goes to a valid Trump Account.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks at Rustico restaurant during a stop on the “Trump Accounts Tour” in Westlake Village, Calif., on May 29, 2026. Mario Tama/Getty Images

The notice outlined rules regarding the selection of trustees by the employers. Trustees are institutions that manage Trump Accounts on behalf of the beneficiaries.

In its latest statement, the Treasury said that more than 50 companies have so far committed to making Trump Account contributions for their employees. Trump Accounts offer businesses a way to help retain and attract employees and aid in their wealth-building efforts, the Treasury said.

Maria Black, the president of human resources company ADP, said in the statement that they welcome the release of the Treasury guidance.

"As the leading provider of payroll and HR solutions that pays 1 in 6 American workers, we have seen first-hand the critical impact financial wellness solutions can have on long-term wealth creation for workers and their families," Black said.

How Do Trump Accounts Work?

Trump accounts work similarly to nondeductible traditional IRAs. This means you can't deduct contributions made to these accounts. Earnings grow tax-deferred until the child reaches age 18.

When the child reaches age 18, they can make withdrawals. At that point, the account essentially becomes a traditional IRA and follows contribution rules for IRAs.

The accounts are essentially designed to give children a head start in retirement savings.

Trump Account Growth

There are concerns that employer contributions to Trump accounts could exacerbate wealth inequality, according to Brendan McDermott, an analyst in public finance at the Congressional Research Service.

This is because higher-earning parents or guardians of Trump Account beneficiaries may have greater access to employee contributions than other workers, McDermott said.

Children look on as President Donald Trump speaks at the launch of Trump investment accounts in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on July 6, 2026. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

McDermott highlighted that last year, 83 percent of workers in the highest-earning 10 percent had access to an employer-sponsored retirement plan. In contrast, only 36 percent of the lowest-earning 10th of workers had similar access.

According to the Trump Account website, a deposit of $1,000 at the birth of a child and no contributions thereafter can give the person an estimated $6,000 at age 18.

If $250 is contributed yearly, the estimated fund can grow to $19,000. A maximum $5,000 per annum contribution can result in an account value of $271,000 at 18 years of age.

"It's a pro-family initiative that will help millions of Americans harness the strength of our economy to lift up the next generation," President Donald Trump said during a June 9 White House event.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 07:20

"BlackDiamonds Are Forever": How To Profit From The China-Driven Germanium Squeeze

Piper Sandler initiated coverage of LightPath Technologies with an "Overweight" rating and a 12-month price target of $15, citing the defense supplier's proprietary BlackDiamond infrared glass, which completely "circumvents" the need for Germanium amid "significant cost increases and scarcity stemming from recent Chinese export controls."

Clarke Jeffries, vice president and senior equity research analyst at Piper Sandler, specializes in industrial software and defense technology. In a note titled "BlackDiamonds Are Forever," Jeffries outlined the core value proposition underpinning LightPath's investment thesis:

Central to LightPath's value proposition is the exclusive license to BlackDiamond, a synthetic glass that circumvents significant cost increases & scarcity from recent Chinese export controls on germanium.

With an exclusive license, and now competing at cost parity (or below) to Germanium, we believe LightPath is poised to capture meaningful share in of IR and Multi-Spectral optics market as the technical advantages of the BlackDiamond technology scale to large diameter optics and have the opportunity to be designed into large upcoming defense programs.

The urgent need for the US to seek alternatives to Germanium, whether through BlackDiamond or new supply lines, comes after China curbed exports of the rare earth metal, sending prices soaring to 14-year highs. This has unleashed a germanium squeeze, given that China accounts for about 91% of primary germanium production and controls more than 90% of global refining capacity, according to S&P Global data. 

Beijing introduced export-licensing requirements in August 2023 before banning shipments to the U.S. in late 2024. Although China suspended that blanket ban through November 2026, exporters still require government licenses, while restrictions on sales to U.S. military users and for military applications remain in place.

With BlackDiamond, LightPath can produce optics and infrared camera systems critical for large defense programs without supply disruptions or margin compression caused by soaring germanium prices.

LightPath shifts supply chains to the West.

Key products

What is BlackDiamond?

Customers

BlackDiamond and beyond

The key point here is that BlackDiamond infrared glass, which circumvents reliance on Chinese-controlled Germanium, fits within the broader strategic push to reshore manufacturing and secure critical domestic supply chains against future disruptions.

One private equity firm we spoke with said its investment strategy centers on identifying US companies capable of scaling domestic production if China moves against Taiwan and severs key supply chains. The Covid pandemic served as a warning and early stress test, exposing how quickly complex overseas supply chains can break down in just a matter of weeks. A Taiwan conflict would represent the same vulnerability on a far larger and more consequential scale because of the island's importance to global chip production.

Professional subscribers can read more on rare earths and defense here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 06:55

My morning reads:

• Corporate America Has Suddenly Decided to Stop Blowing Money on AI: Companies big and small are mixing models and it’s changing the economics and power players of the industry. Model costs have collapsed and the spending discipline has arrived all at once. (Wall Street Journal)

• Women are making more money. Why are they still doing everything else? What happens when women’s economic role changes faster than anyone’s expectations do? Your Brain on Money on the second-shift persistence — earnings equality is advancing faster than domestic equality, and the mental load math hasn’t moved. (Your Brain on Money) see also Taylor Swift Bought Her Way Out of Biometric Surveillance. Kylie Jenner Wants to Sell It. In the age of facial recognition, privacy is a status symbol. Steffi Cao on facial recognition as ambient infrastructure — your phone, the TSA gate, the grocery store — and the one thing money can still buy its way out of. (Slate)

• For Family Offices, AI Is Both an Investment Theme and an Operational Test: Adoption of artificial intelligence tools and investments are rising across family offices. Chief Investment Officer on the double exposure — family offices allocating to AI while struggling to deploy it internally. (Chief Investment Officer)

• The Rolex Report 2026: The same leader, a different market: A Chrono24’s annual state of the secondary market — Rolex still dominates, but the price dynamics underneath have shifted meaningfully from the 2022 peak era. The analysis of completed transactions from 2018 to Q2 2026 shows Rolex’s pandemic premium has fully unwound. The brand stays in front, but its lead has narrowed across every segment and younger buyers are spreading their money more widely.  (Chrono24)

• Paramount Has Spent 100 Years in Hollywood. David Ellison Loved That. Until He Didn’t: The Hollywood Reporter on Ellison’s pivot from studio romantic to cost-cutter — the century-old lot, the layoffs, and the streaming math that changed his mind. The mogul says he’s considering moving his studio out of California. Not long ago, he was talking a big game about how a merger with Warner Bros. Discovery would boost the state. (Hollywood Reporter)

• Waymo Is Growing Faster Than Ever. So Are Its Glitches: The New York Times on the scaling paradox — the expansion is working, the safety record holds, and the edge cases multiply anyway. As Waymo deploys more driverless cars to 15 U.S. cities and counting, its vehicles keep encountering new and unexpected situations that they have no script to handle. (New York Times)

• The Rise of the Unstoppable American Tourist: A strong dollar, accumulated savings and no apparent price sensitivity. Europe has noticed. A supercharged U.S. economy has helped transform a nation of homebodies into zealous international travelers; ‘Travel isn’t optional’ (Wall Street Journal)

• Google Search Is Dying. What Comes Next Is Worse: The Walrus on the post-search internet — AI answers replacing links, the traffic collapse downstream, and the information ecosystem nobody chose. As AI eats the web, the internet’s collective memory is disappearing (The Walrus)

• Dogs Can Tell When You’re Happy, Sad or Frustrated, Study Shows: Kathleen Felton on researchers scanning awake, unrestrained dogs to test how deep the emotional read actually goes. Anyone with a dog suspected as much; the brain imaging is the new part. (Washington Post) see also Can Florida’s ‘coastal corridor’ project safeguard wildlife and boost economy? Conservationists have created a ‘coastal corridor’ of ocean-based projects designed to preserve and nourish vulnerable marine life. Richard Luscombe on disappearing manatees, bleached reefs, gender-changing turtles and hurricane-wrecked oyster beds — and an attempt to borrow a conservation playbook that already worked on land.  (The Guardian).

• The 2026 song of the summer: The Washington Post’s interactive on the summer-song race — the data, the contenders, and how the category itself has fragmented — a dreamy, data-driven quest to find the summer soundtrack of 2026. (Washington Post)

Video of the day: This Is The Most Effective Home Wind Turbine In The World. Why Don’t We Use It?

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Dr. Ankur Crawford, EVP and Portfolio Manager at Alger. She heads the firm’s flagship Alger Capital Appreciation strategies. She was an Engineer at Intel, won the Intel Ph.D. Fellowship, and was awarded fellowship Natl Academy of Sciences, Engineering & Medicine, and holds several U.S. patents.  She was recognized as a “Top Women in Asset Management” in 2020 and serves on the board of The Knowledge House, a Bronx-based charity teaching technology skills to underserved communities.

 

Artificial intelligence has never been more important to the US economy than it is right now

Source: Derek Thompson

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

'Safe Space': New Taxpayer-Funded Berlin Pool For 'Blacks Only' On Fridays

Via Remix News,

A temporary open-air pool erected outside Berlin’s iconic theater was supposed to represent the ultimate low-barrier urban oasis. Instead, a plan to allow only Black people to attend on Fridays has sparked outrage and accusations of racism.

Conceived as a free, non-commercial refuge requiring no identity checks — though reliant on a competitive online reservation system — the €300,000 project was introduced to the public as a shared summer meeting point. However, the organizers have implemented a protocol that excludes anyone non-Black one day a week, a clearly discriminatory practice.

Tensions arose over a specific event slated for Friday, Aug. 14. According to the official program, “During this period, the public bath is exclusively open to Black communities.”

Between 12:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m., general admission is suspended. According to Berliner Zeitung, the venue’s operators added a note asking that “this collective self-designation and the associated spaces be respected.”

The event is organized in partnership with “EOTO” (Each One Teach One), a publicly funded non-governmental organization dedicated to social and cultural programming for Black individuals. Because the NGO receives financial backing from both the German federal government and the state of Berlin, the decision to restrict access during those six hours — effectively excluding white visitors —has drawn criticism from those who feel it contradicts the venue’s core mission.

When the venue was launched, organizers praised it as a communal stand against urban commercialization, describing the initiative as a open “summer invitation.” Critics now argue that reserving public infrastructure for specific demographic groups breaks that initial promise.

Notably, advocates for the Black-only policy claim racism against White people must be implemented to provide a “safe space” for communities facing systemic racism.

The pop-up installation serves as the inaugural project for incoming artistic director Matthias Lilienthal. The pool has been pushed as a practical solution to the city’s seasonal pool shortages. Nothing is said of the fact that Berlin’s population has exploded, mostly due to mass immigration, leaving many outdoor pool areas overcrowded and sometimes even violent.

Lilienthal noted to news outlet ZDF: “Half of the indoor and outdoor swimming pools are closed, so we thought we were helping the Governing Mayor Kai Wegner.”

The venue operates on a substantial budget, benefiting from over €20 million in annual public taxpayer subsidies. The pool itself, measuring 25 meters in length and 1.30 meters in depth, can host a maximum capacity of 46 swimmers simultaneously, with the total budget designed to accommodate an estimated 20,000 visitors over the course of the swimming season.

Racism against Whites is funded by the taxpayer in Germany

This is the hardly the only controversy involving race in Germany, with a number of government programs excluding White people or funding organizations that exclude White people.

Just this year, the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) vowed to cut off taxpayer money for left-wing activist groups after a Berlin organization that runs a coworking café that reportedly excludes White people received more than €662,000 in public funding.

The pattern has been seen across Germany. In August 2023, a German museum of industrial heritage in Dortmund was scolded for only allowing “Black, Indigenous, and People of Color” to enter the museum on Saturdays between 10:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m. for the “That’s Colonial” exhibition. The Zollern Colliery museum argued it was creating a “safer space” intended to protect people of color from “further discrimination.”

The exclusive access was “an offer for BIPoC and black people to be able to withdraw and exchange ideas openly,” according to the museum. “For BIPoC, such safe spaces are rarely found in everyday life or in museum rooms.”

In May 2025, the German Evangelical Church (EKD) was accused of racism after banning White children from attending a workshop on being “courageous and strong” during its Church Congress in Hanover.

The “Become Courage and Strong” workshop was, again, only open to Black, indigenous, and children of color. However, while ethnic Germans and ethnic Europeans are indigenous to Germany and Europe, the designation did not apply to them, only indigenous people from other continents.

“This offer is aimed exclusively at Black, Indigenous, and children of color,” read the program website.

In January of this year, the German taxpayer-funded NGO “Black Sheep,” Schwarze Schafe in German, was offering a six-month intensive seminar designed specifically for White individuals to examine their “alleged privileges,” which is modeled after the concept of “Critical Whiteness.”

The organization, which identifies as a “post-migrant education initiative,” has received significant taxpayer funding from Germans and operates a reporting center for anti-Muslim racism.

White participants were expected to pay up to €2,290 for the course that runs from March to September.

What is clear is that anti-White racism is a massive and lucrative industry in Europe, with funding amounting to tens of millions of euros, and possibly more, for tax-payer projects and NGOs targeting Whites for exclusion, ridicule, and discrimination.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 06:30

Wall Street Zeroes In On This "Pure-Play" US Attack Drone Company

Wall Street analysts are finally waking up to Unusual Machines as a pure-play in the effort to anchor America's sovereign drone supply chain. One-way attack drones and autonomous systems have forever changed modern warfare, forcing the Department of War to quickly fire up a massive procurement supercycle to stockpile these drones. 

We identified UMAC (read report) in mid-July as an NDAA-compliant drone-component manufacturer positioned to reap the rewards as the US government races to stockpile everything from one-way attack drones to interceptor drones.

Piper Sandler analyst Clarke Jeffries is the latest to identify UMAC with an "Overweight" rating and a $38 price target, citing the company's potential in becoming a top domestic drone supplier for the military. 

"UMAC is a pure-play drone beneficiary focused on creating an NDAA-compliant source of domestic drone components to fill the multi-billion dollar void in the defense (& commercial) market created by DoW & FCC restrictions against drones and components coming from China," Jeffries said. 

He continued, "While UMAC has made real headway in capturing the potential opportunity with the majority of down-selected Drone Dominance competitors as customers and ~100,000 sq. ft. of domestic manufacturing online by EOY, the company undoubtedly remains very early in their journey (headcount of only 240 today. ) While large scaling risks remain, ultimately the company's hyper focus on the domestic market and early traction with vendors nets an attractive opportunity in our view. Initiating at OW. 

Jefferies outlined UMAC's key opportunities:

Opportunity #1 

De facto supplier for the post-NDAA drone market. The acute near-term opportunity for UMAC is capturing the S-curve for domestically built drone components as small UAS products comply with new NDAA & FCC regulations on domestic material requirements. UAS components including motors, batteries, and drone imaging systems are predominantly manufactured in the China even for existing U.S.-based defense contractors. UMAC's status as a U.S.-based supplier, especially in base components like motors, creates a privileged position for future UAS production contracts including "Drone Dominance" as the Pentagon mandates supply- chain compliance for future drone programs.

Opportunity #2

What about Commercial? Filling the void left behind by DJI. As the U.S. government moves to cultivate a domestic supply chain for the defense sector, the commercial sector has been swept up in similar protectionist policies to ultimately encourage broader commercial dual-use. To that end, in late 2025 the FCC added DJI (& similar Chinese companies) to the FCC's 'Covered List', that being a register of technology that poses national security risk and therefore is banned from receiving new FCC authorization. While previously approved products remain on sale, this will create a multi-billion dollar market vacuum in the commercial market over the coming years. It remains too early to determine who the heir apparent to DJI is, but we know motors will be needed by whoever becomes the next dominant U.S. commercial drone vendor.

Next-generation opportunities: Counter-UAS & BVLOS.

Longer-term but promising opportunities include: a.) drone interceptors (using drones for defensive applications rather than strike or ISR) which will leverage the same components and b.) BVLOS: FAA currently restricts drones operating 'beyond visual line-of-sight' but changes to this rule are currently being debated. If successful it would significantly loosen requirements and enable new air traffic networks, opening the market for 'Drones-as-a-Service': e- commerce, food delivery, etc

Bull/Bear Scenarios

2030 Growth Thesis for UMAC

UMAC Is in the Early Innings of Becoming a Major Player in the US Drone Market

UMAC's Focus Is on Producing Group 1 and Group 2 Drones

Product Portfolio

Scaling Timeline

Drone Market Problem: China Controls 70%

Another Problem: Approximately 90% of Finished UAS Components Are Still Manufactured in China

Nine Years of Legislation Systematically Eliminating Chinese Content From the US Drone Supply Chain

Department of War Target: 200,000 Drones

Competition

Bloomberg data show that all analysts covering UMAC rate the stock a "Buy," with an average price target of $39.57.

Latest coverage on UMAC from mid-July:

• This American Drone-Motor Company Is Positioned For "Massive Procurement Tailwind"

Wall Street is finally figuring out how to profit from the reshoring of America's drone supply chain and identifying the industry's top players.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 05:45

GOA Members Make History With First Suppressor Transfers Without NFA Registration Since 1934

via Gun Owners of America,

Gun Owners of America (GOA), along with lead plaintiff Silencer Shop, made history tonight as GOA members Brandon Herrera and Wes Virdell lawfully acquired suppressors without complying with the currently enjoined registration requirements of the National Firearms Act of 1934.

The transfers took place at Silencer Shop's new storefront in Leander, Texas immediately after midnight on August 13th. Representative Andrew Clyde (GA-09) and GOA Senior Vice President Erich Pratt were also in attendance.

Remember: GOA and our allies are proceeding with this transfer after consulting legal counsel and making an informed decision.

If you plan to do the same, consult your own attorney first to ensure you’re complying with all other applicable laws. https://t.co/GiCLcC2PgO

— Gun Owners of America (@GunOwners) August 12, 2026

GOA spearheaded the repeal of a 1934 law regulating suppressors and short-barreled firearms in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. That milestone would not have been possible without Congressman Clyde's tireless efforts to dismantle the NFA and President Trump's signature. The passage of this GOA-backed provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act paved the way for GOA's One Big Beautiful Lawsuit which has now culminated in a federal court order currently enjoining ATF enforcement of NFA registration requirements for suppressors and short-barreled firearms, and "any other weapons."

Previously, GOA, Silencer Shop, Herrera, and Virdell formally notified the Department of Justice and Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives of their intent to complete the transfers without NFA registration. Because the ATF did not object, Silencer Shop transferred the unregistered suppressors to Herrera and Virdell in accordance with all other applicable federal and state laws.

This marks the first time since the NFA was enacted on June 26, 1934, that Americans can lawfully acquire suppressors without complying with the federal registration scheme. Our victory went into effect at 12:01 A.M. CT and we notified ATF and DOJ that we intended to conduct the first unregistered suppressor transfer in 92 years.

Erich Pratt, Senior Vice President of Gun Owners of America, issued the following statement:

"GOA fought to crush the NFA's unconstitutional restrictions through the One Big Beautiful Bill, but we didn't stop there. We promised to keep fighting until these restrictions were gone, and now our members are putting the historic victory into action. The era of federal registration for constitutionally protected arms must end."

Brandon Herrera, Candidate for Texas Congressional District 23, issued the following statement:

"I'm happy to once again be working with Gun Owners of America to help be the tip of the spear fighting for gun owners, constitutional rights, and civil rights of not only Texans, but all Americans."

Dave Matheny, Founder and CEO of Silencer Shop, issued the following statement:

"We couldn't be more excited for our customers, dealers, and the future of the Second Amendment. This is a huge victory, but we still have a long way to go; and Silencer Shop will continue to lead the way along-side GOA, FRAC, ASA, Silencer Shop Foundation, and the many other groups who are working to unwind the NFA. We're truly humbled to be part of such a monumental event."

Lauren Spivey, CEO of Silencer Shop Foundation, issued the following statement:

"This win belongs to the people and customers who made it possible. The Silencer Shop Foundation is funded entirely by supporters who believe law-abiding Americans deserve to exercise their Second Amendment rights, and their support let us take this fight to the ATF and win a strong ruling from the court. We're proud of what we've done together, and we'll keep working to ensure all lawful Americans are protected under this ruling."

Jamin McCallum, Founder and CEO of Palmetto State Armory, issued the following statement:

"Today marks more than the first NFA-free suppressor transfer under this injunction, it marks the moment years of fighting became real for the American people. We're proud to have stood alongside Gun Owners of America and others who made this victory possible, and we'll continue fighting to expand freedom and defend the rights of everyday Americans."

Wes Virdell, Member of the Texas House of Representatives, representing District 53, issued the following statement:

"It's hard to believe we have moved the needle so far. What was once considered unachievable is now a reality, because of Gun Owners of America and Silencer Shop. GOA never gave up the fight to get here. I am grateful to be a part of this history happening right before our very eyes."

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 01:05

The Cultural Revolution Is In Full Swing

Authored by Larry Sand via American Greatness,

It’s no secret that socialism is advancing in the U.S. The latest development in this ominous trend occurred on August 4, when Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive backed by democratic socialists, defeated the establishment-backed congresswoman Haley Stevens in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary.

At the same time, our culture is under constant attack by radicals seeking to transform our national ethos. Despite some claims to the contrary, the cultural upheaval known as “Wokism” is very much alive and well. As John Murawski writes in RealClearInvestigations, the movement in recent years, “from slavery reparations and polyamory to transgender advocacy and anti-colonialism, reveals that this dogma is still percolating through the culture, with some new outbreak almost every week.”

A case in point is a video released by Accuracy in Media from the just-completed American Psychological Association conference, which shows speakers advocating that psychologists use therapeutic approaches to become better “white allies” and advance “antiracist” objectives in their practices, rather than helping patients overcome mental health challenges.

There are myriad examples of woke’s staying power in our nation’s schools, where far-left ethnic studies programs still prevail. In California, the adopted curriculum includes lessons on settler colonialism and the Third World Liberation Front and even uses Black Panther Party newspapers as primary sources. California law encourages districts to develop their own ethnic studies curricula, and many have gone beyond the state model. Some have incorporated materials on the “Land Back” movement, which rejects widely accepted notions of borders and citizenship. These are not fringe supplements, and this content is already in many classrooms.

The teachers’ unions are at the forefront of this fanatical trend. On May Day, the National Education Association issued a toolkit that is essentially an updated version of Marx and Engels’ Communist Manifesto.

As reported by Defending Education, the NEA toolkit contains typical leftist claptrap, including a laundry list of demands for a day of action that stresses “building the Society we ALL deserve.” The union’s agenda includes “stopping the billionaire takeover and rampant corruption within the Trump administration, taxing the rich, and eliminating ICE,” among other measures.

May Day is just one example of students being used as pawns by radicals. Defending Education maintains a “K-12 Student Walkout and Protest Tracker” that documents K-12 student walkouts and protests from 2022 to the present, all orchestrated by left-wing educators.

The group tracks 48 states and Washington, D.C., and found that between 2022 and 2025, 169 school districts experienced teacher-led student walkouts. But this year, there have already been a whopping 402 instances.

Not surprisingly, U.S. colleges are also major purveyors of indoctrination.

“The binary definition of sex in biology is a recent invention,” writes Princeton University anthropologist Agustín Fuentes in his book, Sex Is a Spectrum: The Biological Limits of the Binary.

In a phone interview with John Murawski, Fuentes claimed that the biological sciences have been undergoing a paradigm shift for several decades and that “many scholars reject the sexual binary model that says females are defined solely by large gametes (eggs) and males by small gametes (sperm).”

Fuentes relies on “Queer Theory” in his work and maintains that it is an important part of contemporary biological thought. He believes that perceived differences in strength and speed between males and females in sports “are to a considerable extent products of culture, not biology.” He adds that if “society held the same expectations and invested equally in male and female sports, the performance gap between the sexes would narrow significantly.”

Then there is the University of Minnesota, which is developing “therapeutic” transgender dolls for children. The project is set to launch this year.

The MyGender Dolls website states that the dolls are “grounded in gender-affirming clinical practices” and will serve as a “therapeutic” resource for clinicians and educators working with children ages 4 to 10.

In addition to interchangeable genitals, the dolls also come with a wide array of customizable accessories, including outfits and hairstyles, to accommodate a diversity of gender presentations. They come in a wide range of skin tones. The dolls are also deliberately given names that could belong to either gender, such as “Sam.”

Scarily, medical schools are not exempt from the woke movement. As I wrote a year ago, the nation’s leading medical schools are controlled by Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion extremists who impose wokist nonsense, including “weight inclusivity,” racial justice, and gender ideology on their staff and students through policies, statements, and curricular mandates.

While some argue that DEI is abating, The Daily Caller reports that there has been absolutely no change to this abysmal set of circumstances. Sometimes the names of efforts have simply been altered. For example, the University of Iowa announced in March 2025 that it was shutting down its Division of Access, Opportunity, and Diversity following a directive from the Iowa Board of Regents. However, Do No Harm, which represents physicians, nurses, medical students, patients, and policymakers focused on keeping identity politics out of medical education, research, and clinical practice, found that the DEI office was “still fully up and running,” but under a different name, which amounts to putting lipstick on the proverbial pig.

While U.S. schools were once our country’s most trusted institutions, that era has passed. Rick Hess, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, notes that in 1973, 61 percent of Republicans and 60 percent of Democrats expressed “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in America’s public schools. But 50 years later, those figures have fallen to 43 percent among Democrats and to a mere 14 percent among Republicans.

In higher education, the decline has been even more rapid and dramatic.

In 2010, 75 percent of Americans said college was “very important,” but by 2025, only 35 percent did so.

Ultimately, parents should homeschool if possible; if not, they should send their children to a private school that educates without indoctrinating. Then, instead of sending their teenagers to college, parents should have them attend a good technical school where they can learn a trade, become successful adults, and avoid becoming woke robots.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 23:25

Ann Arbor Is The 'Most Educated' City In America

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, ranks the most educated U.S. cities in 2026, highlighting metropolitan areas with high levels of educational attainment and strong local education systems.

The data for this visualization comes from WalletHub. Cities were ranked using a weighted composite score based on educational attainment (80%) and education quality and equality (20%).

College Towns Continue to Lead

Ann Arbor, Michigan, ranks first with an overall score of 94.48, driven by exceptionally high educational attainment.

Rank Most Educated Cities State Total Score (0-100) 1 Ann Arbor MI 94.48 2 Durham NC 85.00 3 San Jose CA 82.67 4 Washington DC 81.93 5 Madison WI 79.62 6 San Francisco CA 78.92 7 Raleigh NC 77.88 8 Boston MA 77.78 9 Austin TX 76.46 10 Seattle WA 75.21 11 Portland ME 71.85 12 Denver CO 71.37 13 Colorado Springs CO 69.94 14 Bridgeport CT 69.71 15 Provo UT 69.55 16 Portland OR 67.83 17 Huntsville AL 67.69 18 Minneapolis MN 66.72 19 Baltimore MD 66.56 20 Albany NY 66.49 21 Trenton NJ 66.02 22 San Diego CA 65.78 23 Tallahassee FL 65.75 24 Lexington KY 65.44 25 Asheville NC 64.45 26 Atlanta GA 64.03 27 Charleston SC 63.52 28 New Haven CT 62.75 29 Hartford CT 62.63 30 New York NY 62.48

More than 96% of adults in Ann Arbor have earned at least a high school diploma. The presence of the University of Michigan also contributes to the area’s highly educated population.

Durham, North Carolina, ranks second, reflecting the influence of Duke University and the broader Research Triangle.

Madison, Wisconsin, also earns a top-five finish, supported by the University of Wisconsin and a workforce anchored by government, health care, and research.

Technology Hubs Also Rank Highly

Several of the country’s leading technology centers rank among its most educated cities.

San Jose places third, followed by San Francisco in sixth and Seattle in 10th, reflecting the concentration of highly skilled workers in Silicon Valley and the Pacific Northwest.

Austin ranks ninth as its growing technology sector continues to attract graduates and professionals from across the country.

Washington, D.C., places fourth, supported by a highly educated workforce across government, consulting, law, and policy organizations.

The East Coast Has a Strong Presence

Nearly half of the top 30 cities are located on the East Coast, reflecting the region’s dense network of universities, research institutions, and knowledge-based industries.

Boston, Bridgeport, New Haven, Hartford, Albany, Trenton, Baltimore, and New York all make the list.

Many of these metropolitan areas benefit from long-term investment in higher education and proximity to major employers in finance, health care, biotechnology, and government.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Which U.S. States Depend Most on Manufacturing? on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 22:10

Common Blood Pressure Drug Recalled Nationwide, FDA Says

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation recalled some heart failure and high blood pressure medication due to potency issues, according to the Food and Drug Administration's website.

Hottie pharmacist at a Florida pharmacy, in this file photo. Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images. Would. 

The recall affects one lot of Diovan, Novartis' valsartan brand, according to a report issued last week. The lot includes 160-milligram tablets in 90-count bottles, with the lot number AV5913C, and an expiration date of June 2027.

The drug is prescription-only and manufactured by North Carolina-based Patheon Manufacturing Services LLC and distributed by Novartis, a multinational pharmaceutical company that is one of the largest in the world.

According to the FDA notice, the reason for the recall is due to "failed dissolution specifications," meaning that the pills may not dissolve correctly in the body when ingested.

The recall was initiated on Aug. 4, while the FDA later classified the recall as Class II, which it describes as "a situation in which use of or exposure to a violative product may cause temporary or medically reversible adverse health consequences or where the probability of serious adverse health consequences is remote."

The notice did not say how many bottles of the medication were impacted but added that it is a nationwide recall.

The Mayo Clinic says that valsartan is a type of angiotensin II receptor blocker, which stops "a substance in the body that causes blood vessels to tighten."

It can be used by itself or together with other medicines to treat high blood pressure, heart failure, and left ventricular failure following a heart attack.

Valsartan is commonly prescribed, according to drug database ClinCalc, with around 10.9 million patients taking the medication in 2024.

In 2018, in a separate instance, global health agencies and the FDA launched significant recalls of valsartan after it was linked to contamination produced by Zhejiang Huahai Pharmaceuticals, located in Linhai, China. The medications were discovered to have high levels of N-nitrosodimethylamine, which can be carcinogenic.

Other Heart Drug Recalls

Earlier this month, India-based drug manufacturer Alkem Laboratories Ltd. said it was recalling more than 5,600 packages of a heart and blood-thinning medication, dabigatran etexilate, according to an FDA notice.

The recall was due to "failed impurity/degradation specification" in a tested batch of the drug, according to the notice.

Amlodipine and olmesartan medoxomil tablets - in 10 mg and 20 mg doses, respectively - are being recalled nationwide, according to a separate FDA notice in July.

The product was manufactured by Alkem Laboratories Ltd. and distributed by New Jersey-based Ascend Laboratories LLC, according to the report, which added that 6,192 bottles are affected by the action.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 21:45

Experts Question Why Polls Were So Wrong In The Wisconsin Primary

Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong entered primary day as the prohibitive favorite to become the Democratic Party’s nominee for Wisconsin governor.

Yet, she wound up narrowly losing to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley instead.

Crowley beat Hong by 0.4 percentage points, a margin of about 3,000 votes, in a race that polling had shown Hong leading by about 20 points for weeks.

Despite the slim margin, Hong ultimately conceded the race, and now Crowley will face Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany in November.

The gap between expectation and outcome sent pollsters, analysts, and commentators searching for an explanation, and their answers vary.

Marquette Law School polled the race twice, catching it at two different stages of collapse. The first, taken July 8-16 while Crowley sat out, had Hong at 26%, Barnes at 15%, and Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez at 11%. Rodriguez dropped out the next day. Crowley climbed back in July 18, and by the time Marquette polled again July 22-27, Hong had jumped to 38%, Barnes had ticked up to 16%, and Crowley had 7%. Barnes quit three days after that.

Both polls had small samples, margins of error above four points, and undecided voters in the 30s and 40s. Neither one could have caught what came next. Hong's 2021 posts calling for canceling Thanksgiving resurfaced in early August. She defended the posts on CNN, then reversed course on Politico, calling Thanksgiving her favorite holiday. The reversal revived old criticism of her past comments on her own "proximity to whiteness."

By August 3-6, when State Navigate polled a settled field, Hong still led, 44% to Crowley's 22%, with Sen. Kelda Roys at 11%. Kalshi had her as a 95.5% favorite as late as the Monday before the primary. By Tuesday afternoon, that number had fallen to 58%. Hong finished at 39.4%, close to what the late polls predicted. Crowley was the miss. The polls undercounted him by a wide margin. Roys took 7.5%, and former state official Joel Brennan took 4.7%, enough combined that their absence could have changed who won.

Pollster Nate Silver posted his confusion Tuesday night on X. 

"Hong might come back, but wtf is up with these primary polls?" he wrote.

Silver followed up, noting that many modern polls function as statistical models rather than raw snapshots, writing that "primaries are very hard to model from first principles, whereas general elections are relatively easy given very high partisanship and usually predictable demographic relationships."

Political scientist Larry Sabato pointed to a similar failure in Michigan days earlier, where Democratic Socialist Abdul El-Sayed defeated Rep. Haley Stevens in the Senate primary. Sabato wrote, "What amazes me is that just a few days ago, the same polling train wreck happened in Michigan. Few learned anything."

Pollster Frank Luntz said he agreed with Sabato's assessment.

CNN's Harry Enten suggested pollsters oversampled young progressive voters, inflating apparent support for socialist-aligned candidates in both states. 

“When you kind of look at the polling, you go, ‘Hey, wait a minute, maybe these polls had too many younger folks in them.’ And I think that speaks to something larger potentially, which is all these pollings, which are sewing progressivism on the left, the far left rising, seeing Democratic socialism, especially in the case of Wisconsin, rising, you got to look at these results and say, ‘Hey, wait a minute. Maybe, Johnny, maybe these polls are overestimating how much that Democratic socialism is rising within the Democratic Party,’ because in two key statewide races in a row, what we've seen is the lefties being vastly overestimated. And in the case of Wisconsin, the Democratic socialists being vastly overestimated by 20 points.”

The polls may have given Francesca Hong a coronation, but Wisconsin voters had other plans.

David Crowley’s comeback underscores the cost of allowing fashionable ideology, activist energy, and faulty assumptions to replace a serious reading of the electorate, and once again, the polling industry has egg on its face.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 21:20

Shocked! ICE To Equip Officers With Gloves That Can Deliver Electric Zaps

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) plans to spend up to $20 million on gloves that can deliver electric shocks for its agents, according to a notice published by the Department of Homeland Security on Aug. 10.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents walk outside the Ventura County Government Center in Ventura, Calif., on July 27, 2026. Blake Fagan/AFP via Getty Images

The devices, known as CTG-5 G.L.O.V.E, or Generated Low Output Voltage Emitter, are expected to be delivered by March 31, 2027, according to the notice.

The notice refers to the gloves as "conductive distraction and de-escalation" devices, which ICE seeks to buy for Homeland Security Investigations and Enforcement Removal Operations officers and agents.

The device manufacturer, Compliant Technologies, states on its website that the devices were designed "to supplement existing tools for law enforcement, corrections, security, EMS [Emergency Medical Services] and the military."

The devices must be applied directly to someone's skin and are ineffective through clothing or hair, according to the user manual. No more than two gloves should be used at a time, with each application lasting not more than 15 seconds, it states.

Compliant Technologies said the gloves should not be used to respond to "verbal defiance or belligerence," as punishment or for torture. The company also warned against using them on children, elderly people, pregnant women, or people with disabilities.

The manual also recommends that the gloves be deployed as necessary to "accomplish lawful objectives within the scope of the agency's policies" when a suspect becomes violent to the point of endangering the officer or the public.

Officers must be trained and certified to use the gloves, with recertification required every two years, according to the manual.

The Epoch Times reached out to both the Department of Homeland Security and Compliant Technologies for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Jenn Rolnick Borchetta, deputy project director for policing at the American Civil Liberties Union, expressed doubt that ICE officers would use the devices appropriately and questioned why the devices would be necessary for civil immigration enforcement.

"ICE spent the last year showing this country they are too quick to use force. Now they will be able to deploy electric shocks with the slight push of a button that maybe nobody else can see them do," she said. "Introducing gloves that can so easily be used to deliver terrible pain in encounters is a recipe for harm to the public."

Meanwhile, acting ICE Director David Venturella announced on Aug. 8 that federal agents will be equipped with body-worn cameras by the end of the month in a move to increase "transparency and accountability."

The cameras are a key measure that congressional Democrats demanded during a months-long funding dispute earlier this year over the funding for the Department of Homeland Security.

Democratic lawmakers in Congress have demanded that ICE be reformed following the fatal shooting of two U.S. citizens by federal agents during operations in Minnesota earlier this year.

Troy Myers and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 20:55

Mamdani's Socialist Utopia Collides With Reality As Manhattan Rents Hit Record

Socialist NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani built his political campaign by relentlessly attacking America and, most importantly, portraying capitalism as the root cause of nearly every social problem, from affordability pressures to soaring rents.

Voters were sold the idea that his administration could deliver an instant utopian transformation built on free bus rides, government-run grocery stores, and cheap housing.

However, like every Marxist before him, Mamdani's vision of utopia is not grounded in economic reality. The dream pitched to millions across the metropolitan area is now colliding with market reality: a continuing nightmare for renters. Even with Mamdani's rent freeze and threat of a pied-à-terre tax, rents are still rising.

Delving into the granular data, a report from the New York Post, citing data from Corcoran Sunshine Marketing Group, shows that Manhattan's average monthly rent jumped to a record $6,655 in July, up 10% from a year earlier.

The median rent reached $5,295, a 6% increase from the same month one year ago, according to the data. Average rents rose across every apartment category, including 8% for studios to $4,088, 7% for one-bedroom apartments to $5,486 and 13% for two-bedroom apartments to $8,054. Three-bedroom apartments averaged $12,228, up 12%.

NYC's rental vacancy rate has fallen to 1.49%, the lowest since 1968 and well below the 5% threshold typically associated with a landlord's market. Separately, state data show that roughly 57,000 rent-stabilized apartments sat vacant in 2025

A severe housing shortage, elevated mortgage rates, and new rental regulations have intensified competition for available apartments. Let's not forget that a recent Center for Migration Studies report showed that more than 500,000 illegal aliens live in NYC.

Via Pew Research 

Yet the socialists in City Hall have no interest in deporting illegal aliens - that because that's their imported voter bloc. These illegals add pressure to the housing supply and force rental prices higher. Even the Dallas Federal Reserve recently confirmed that the illegal alien invasion under the Biden-Harris regime led to pressure on rents and housing prices on a national level. 

To begin the week, a New York judge temporarily halted Mamdani's socialist tax experiment on second homes. The far-left in City Hall also published a controversial list doxing more than 900,000 homeowners, exposing them to targeting by radical activists, including Luigi-worshipping far-left activists. Maybe the socialists' game is not affordability but more about seizing private property.

President Trump commented on Truth Social yesterday about Mamdani's dangerous tax "experiment" before it "destroys what was once a great City and State." He said the federal government is looking for ways to challenge the tax scheme. 

Related:

• Rich-Kid Mamdani Ally Wants To "Abolish Rent"; Could Hawley Reform Bill Stop College Indoctrination?

Beyond tax schemes, doxing wealthy, and attempted rent freezes, Mamdani and the radical left are trying to build more housing, but that takes time, something they do not have if they hope to prove that their utopian vision works. These policies may work in the short run if implemented, but over the long term, such fundamentally flawed policies have repeatedly failed around the world. 

Meanwhile...

Reality Bites: Socialist NYC Mayor Mamdani Turns To Capitalist Bankers For Help https://t.co/C18ePozoCI

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 7, 2026

Read: South America Just Rejected Socialism. So Why Is North America Buying It?

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 20:30

The Return Of Economic Gaslighting

Authored by Connor O'Keefe via The Mises Institute,

Around two and a half years ago, as the Biden administration was entering what we now know was its final year, the then-president’s re-election campaign was growing frustrated.

According to nearly all the big economic indicators and aggregates, the economy was doing quite well, especially considering the historic shutdown governments had forced on the global economy a few years before.

However, at the same time, the American public as a whole felt very negatively about that same economy. And that negativity was persistent.

That diversion appeared to genuinely baffle some media figures and political strategists who seemed to believe everything you could ever need to know about the health of the economy could be gleaned entirely from GDP and the unemployment rate. But, more urgently, it forced the president’s team to make a decision.

On one hand, they could find some politically useful scapegoat for the public’s economic discomfort and run a campaign on addressing it. That would allow them to meet voters where they were, but it would force them to tone down their aggressive celebrations of all the nominally strong economic data drops.

On the other hand, they could continue to celebrate the “strong” economy and give themselves credit for rescuing the country from the dark days of covid with “daring” legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Acts.

Clearly, the team of presumably seasoned political strategists on Biden and later Harris’ campaign chose to pursue the latter. It went terribly.

In one of the most unsurprising developments in modern American politics, it turned out that people who were struggling to navigate the aftermath of the government’s destructive economic shutdowns and keep up with rising prices did not like being told by establishment-approved economic “experts” that they were essentially stupid if they didn’t understand how excellent the economy actually was.

And the establishment really did try. The media loudly credited Biden and the big spending bills he helped move through Congress whenever a good jobs report came out and then all but ignored the later revisions that revealed virtually all that job growth wasn’t real. Establishment-friendly economists kept the public laser-focused on GDP as the one and only indicator of the economy’s strength while leaving out how much government spending was propping the number up. And an effort was made to falsely frame all negative economic sentiment as a dishonest ploy by Biden’s political opponents to tank the president’s re-election bid.

None of it worked. The majority of the American public, including a sufficient number of independent voters, could tell that something was deeply wrong with the American economy. And that, worse than merely doing nothing about it, the people in power were trying to gaslight them into thinking everything was fine.

Trump won, in large part, because he focused on confronting this mounting “affordability crisis” as it was quickly coming to be called. But now, as the midterms approach and he and his party are the ones in charge, the Republicans are faced with the exact same choice the Democrats had been faced with before 2024. And, notably, they have decided to adopt the same strategy that helped torpedo the Democrats last time around.

That was made very clear on social media last week after an X post about the price of burritos ignited a firestorm on the right. Trump-aligned figures lambasted the younger generations especially for continuing to espouse the very sentiment that helped propel Trump back to the White House. Again, the disaffected public was told to shut up, accept what the president was saying about how this was the strongest economy ever, continue to vote Republican, and scrounge together cheaper food if they didn’t like how much burritos cost nowadays.

The figures and specific talking points may differ, but the formula remains the same.

First, voters can tell that the economy is not only weaker than the official metrics are letting on, but that, somehow, it is rigged against them.

They then vote for the party or candidates who are closest to echoing this sentiment and who promise to make sweeping changes in the name of addressing this economic pain.

Then, when that sense that something in the economy is off persists after those politicians get into office, anyone who points that out is called either a liar, lazy, or bad at managing their money by the very people who they had once voted for and supported.

This kind of cyclical economic gaslighting is infuriating. But it isn’t surprising.

The cause of this so-called affordability crisis is not a mystery. It is, primarily, the result of the government inflating the money supply. When the Federal Reserve creates new money out of thin air to buy financial assets, the purchasing power of all dollars goes down—something we all experience as a general rise in prices. But it does not happen instantaneously across the whole economy. The people who get their hands on the new dollars first get to use that new money to buy things at old prices. And, on the other side of the spectrum, the people who get the new money last have to first pay higher prices before they ever get access to the new money that helped bid those prices up.

This is called the Cantillon effect, and it is, in every way, a forced wealth transfer from the bulk of the population to the small, typically well-connected group who gets the money first. However, what makes this form of redistribution especially damaging is that, even though economic theory is very clear that it is inevitable with the kinds of monetary operations the Fed is doing, it is not easy to identify. There is evidence if you know where to look and what to look for. But for most everyday people, this institutionalized theft is only ever experienced as this vague sense that things are getting less affordable.

That difficulty in detecting the true cause of this impoverishing policy gives the monetary authorities and all the people in government and well-connected industries who benefit from it a lot more room to operate than they typically get with more visible measures of taking our wealth, like taxes and government borrowing.

So money printing has become one of the primary ways the political class both transfers our wealth to themselves and, because the Fed also loans many of the dollars it creates directly to the Treasury Department, funds their extremely expensive government programs. That’s been true for decades. But the levels of theft through money printing hit historic levels during the pandemic. The Fed printed trillions of new dollars and injected most of them straight into the economy.

That is the reason we’re dealing with this so-called “affordability crisis” and, further, why there is such a visceral sense among the public that something is deeply wrong with the economy. That, somehow, they’re being ripped off. And they are right.

However, this isn’t ever talked about in the establishment media or genuinely taken on by politicians in either party because solving the problems caused by the Fed’s money printing is not in the interest of those in power. What is in their interest is using the money spigot for their own ends while obfuscating the issue in public and redirecting people’s righteous anger towards some useful scapegoat.

The Trump administration is facing no pressure to address the true cause of this problem and—with the expensive war they launched and their complete disinterest in doing anything but increasing federal spending—every reason to keep it going.

That puts them in a hard electoral position, but the truth is, with the massive increase in social spending most democrats are calling for, the other party will—once again—be in the same boat once they win back some power.

In other words, unless and until people wake up to the political class’s scheme or, at least, grow used to the jump in prices caused by the government’s historic monetary expansion during covid, the gaslighting will continue.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 20:05

Nearly Half Of NYC Homeless Deaths Due To Drugs Or Alcohol: Study

Nearly half of all deaths among New York City's homeless population in the most recent fiscal year were connected to drug use or alcohol abuse, according to a new city report.

A homeless man sits in the cold in Manhattan on Dec. 27. Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Of the 634 people experiencing homelessness who died between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025, 285 lost their lives to drug addiction, overdoses, or alcoholism. The figures come from the annual mortality report jointly issued by the city's Department of Health and Mental Hygiene and the Department of Social Services/Homeless Services.

Drug-related causes alone accounted for 251 deaths, or 40 percent of the total - still the leading cause of death among this population. Alcohol misuse or dependence contributed another 34 deaths (5 percent). Together, substance-related deaths made up roughly 45 percent of the total, the NY Post reports.

The report covers deaths that occurred in temporary shelters, on the streets, in the subway system, in abandoned buildings, and in other locations. Fifty-two percent of those who died were classified as unsheltered; 48 percent were living in a homeless facility at the time of death. Most (58 percent) died in a hospital. Among unsheltered individuals, 22 percent died outdoors.

Other leading causes of death included heart disease (78 deaths, 12 percent), accidents excluding drug overdoses (60 deaths, 9 percent), and cancer (23 deaths, 4 percent). Additional figures included 18 suicides, 15 deaths from hypothermia or cold exposure, 15 subway-related accidents, 14 motor-vehicle accidents, and 11 homicides. A small number of deaths involved toxic substances, heat exposure, or falls. In ten cases, the manner of death could not be determined.

The overall number of deaths declined nearly 18 percent from the previous year, when 770 people experiencing homelessness died. Drug-related deaths specifically fell 28 percent, from 348 in fiscal year 2024 to 251 in fiscal year 2025. Despite the drop, substance use remained the dominant cause of mortality, consistent with both citywide and national patterns.

City officials noted that the true toll is likely higher. Thousands of migrants housed in temporary facilities operated by other agencies during the border crisis were not fully included in the data-matching process, meaning some deaths may have gone uncounted as homeless fatalities.

The report is the 20th in the annual series required by law. Authors said the data help identify pressing health risks for a highly vulnerable population that faces elevated rates of poorly controlled physical and mental health conditions, compounded by poverty, housing instability, and other social stressors.

As of early August 2026, the city's shelter system housed roughly 83,200 people - down from a peak above 100,000 during the height of the migrant influx. The city has extended a $1.86 billion contract to continue using commercial hotels as emergency shelter for the next three years.

A man rests against a wall appearing to be under the influence of drugs on a street in the South Bronx on June 7 in New York City. Spencer Platt / Getty Images file Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 19:40

White House Ends TikTok Ban On Government Devices

Authored by Jackson Richman via The Epoch Times,

The White House has allowed Executive Branch employees to use TikTok on their government devices.

The Office of Management and Budget on Aug. 10 issued a memorandum to heads of executive departments and agencies, stating that “TikTok may be used on government devices.”

The Epoch Times has reached out to TikTok for comment.

This comes after the Department of Justice issued a memorandum on July 17 that said federal employees can again use TikTok on their government devices.

The app was banned in 2022 over national security concerns surrounding TikTok’s Chinese parent company, ByteDance.

The U.S. version of the app is operated by the TikTok U.S. Data Security Joint Venture, whose majority ownership consists of American investors.

It has changed the algorithm and cybersecurity measures that were created by the firm.

The joint venture’s managing investors are Oracle, MGX, and Silver Lake, owning a total of 45 percent of its shares.

“Employees of Executive Branch agencies may download TikTok onto their official devices, subject to the agency’s discretion and consistent with all applicable workplace policies,” the DOJ said in its memorandum.

According to the DOJ, the TikTok U.S. Data Security Joint Venture uses third-party cybersecurity experts to monitor and certify privacy while detecting any vulnerabilities.

“These safeguards would appear to make TikTok USDS just as data-secure as any other social networking service, if not more so,” the DOJ said.

“We conclude that, as a matter of statutory interpretation, the version of TikTok currently available for download in the United States [no longer falls] within that prohibited category of applications.”

The DOJ said federal agencies can independently decide whether to ban TikTok from government devices.

The memo noted that the federal government-TikTok relationship has been strained since at least 2020.

In 2022, Congress passed the No TikTok on Government Devices Act, instructing the Office of Management and Budget to provide guidelines for agencies to delete TikTok or any other app developed by ByteDance from government devices.

In 2024, Congress passed the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, making it illegal for any entity to distribute, maintain, or update any foreign-adversary-controlled application.

During his first day in office, President Donald Trump postponed the implementation of the ban. He has since again delayed it.

Following the DOJ memo, the Treasury, Transportation, and Health and Human Services Departments set up TikTok accounts. Last year, the White House created a TikTok account.

TikTok is banned on congressional devices in the House and Senate.

It’s also prohibited on state government devices in states such as Texas and Virginia.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 19:15

New Orleans Becomes First Major U.S. City To Let AI Answer 911

New Orleans is testing just how much Americans are willing to trust artificial intelligence when the stakes are considerably higher than writing an email or ordering dinner, according to the New York Post.

The city has begun allowing an AI system to field certain 911 calls, apparently making it the first major U.S. municipality to put a bot directly between emergency callers and human operators.

The idea is largely about volume. New Orleans' emergency communications center receives more than 1,000 calls on a typical day, and officials believe automation can clear some of the clutter while dispatchers concentrate on genuine emergencies.

The technology isn't supposed to take over the entire 911 operation. Instead, it can deal with situations that appear redundant or relatively routine when human operators are tied up. A flood of calls about the same already-reported car accident, for example, could potentially be filtered through the automated system rather than occupying multiple dispatchers.

The Post writes that city officials insist humans remain at the center of the operation. But skeptics say emergency calls are precisely the kind of messy, unpredictable interactions computers may struggle to interpret.

People dialing 911 aren't reading from scripts. They may be terrified, whispering, intoxicated, injured, confused or speaking through heavy background noise. In some situations, callers intentionally conceal what's happening because another person is nearby.

One online critic who identified himself as a former 911 dispatcher called the experiment “the worst idea you could possibly think of,” arguing that experienced operators routinely listen for clues beyond the caller's literal words.

That concern becomes more significant given the continuing reliability problems surrounding conversational AI. Voice models can confidently produce incorrect information, while cybersecurity researchers have shown that specially constructed audio can sometimes manipulate AI systems into behaving in unintended ways.

New Orleans isn't alone in bringing algorithms into emergency services. Atlanta uses AI technology to assist operators in locating callers, while Seattle has used automated tools to help sort medical calls by urgency. The distinction is that New Orleans appears to be going further by allowing AI to actually interact with some people dialing 911.

Officials believe safeguards, human supervision and strict limits on when the system is activated can make the technology useful without handing emergency response over to a machine.

It's an ambitious experiment, although perhaps an uncomfortable one: the next time somebody calls 911 in New Orleans, the first voice answering may not belong to a person at all.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 18:50