Individual Economists

NYPD Told To Stop Ejecting Homeless From NYC Subways Due To Freezing Temperatures

Zero Hedge -

NYPD Told To Stop Ejecting Homeless From NYC Subways Due To Freezing Temperatures

NYPD officers were ordered to stand down on enforcement in the subway system during last weekend’s deep freeze, halting removals and holding off on cracking down as windchills dropped below zero, according to ABC.

"We put a complete stop to all ejections, even people who could potentially be causing problems in the subway system," said Alex Crohn, NYPD Deputy Commissioner of Strategic Initiatives.

That decision emerged during a City Council oversight hearing examining how the Mamdani administration managed more than two weeks of snow and dangerous cold. Eighteen people died outside during that stretch, at least 15 of them believed to be from hypothermia.

Council members pressed officials on why more people weren’t compelled to seek shelter.

"How can a person refusing to come indoors in freezing weather where they are obviously at great risk of potentially dying, not be assessed to be a danger to themselves?" asked City Council Speaker Julie Menin.

Department of Social Services Commissioner Molly Wasow Park said the legal threshold is specific and was followed, adding that 52 people were taken indoors against their will.

"Are they exhibiting signs of mental illness and are they a danger to themselves or others? Right. So, if an individual is completely lucid, they are dry, they are wearing enough layers of clothing and they do not want to come inside. They have the right not to come inside," Park said.

She also told lawmakers the cold intensified quickly over a weekend, leaving many caught off guard.

"We had this very dangerous situation happening very quickly on a weekend and I think it caught people by surprise," Park said.

Advocates acknowledged some of the city’s efforts but highlighted breakdowns, including a case described by Coalition for the Homeless leader David Giffen.

"We saw one individual who was discharged from a city hospital out to the streets. And that person a few hours later was found dead," Giffen said. "That never should have happened. Hospitals should not be releasing people or discharging them if they're inpatients, out to the streets."

City officials testified that about 600 outreach workers are assigned to engage people living outside, though 10 to 20 deaths linked to extreme weather still occur each year. Several council members suggested that boosting staffing levels could reduce that toll.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 17:20

Midterm Palpitations

Zero Hedge -

Midterm Palpitations

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Recent regional special elections have seen Democratic candidates win a number of special election races.

Now energized left-wing politicos remind the nation daily that every incumbent president, except three over the last century, has suffered substantial midterm losses in Congress.

Polls show Trump suffering an average 11-point negative unfavorability rating.

So Democrats promise to soon stop all new legislation and end Trump and his counterrevolution itself.

But the left will never offer any alternative agenda on the economy, the border, crime, or foreign policy.

Instead, the new Democrat-Socialist Party views the Biden disaster of 2021-2024 not as a result of his puppeteers’ toxic policies of open borders, 21 percent aggregate inflation, dead-end green energy subsidies, DEI mandates, trans fixations, and an appeasing foreign policy that led to wars abroad and emboldened China.

Instead, they now blame those catastrophic years on Biden’s own enfeebled state—as if he were merely a hapless, debilitated messenger for their otherwise superb radical message.

So absent a positive agenda, Democrats will simply run all their state and federal campaigns as if Trump, their Satanic monster, is on every ballot.

Their Trump obsessions result in three now well-worn strategies.

The first, of course, is still more chaos.

The left believes that the unending 2020 riots cost Trump the election.

Ever since, they have sought to concoct a nihilist replay—whether the Tesla hysterias, the perpetual threats of government shutdowns, tough-guy talk of open insurrection against the federal government, or the current, performative-art, anti-ICE violence in Minneapolis.

They concede most Americans still support Trump’s closed borders and legal-only immigration, but hope they want a return to “normalcy” even more.

The more violence, Nazi-invective, and sheer craziness the left can instill—storming church services, ramming ICE vehicles, taking over the streets, or boasting of armed resistance—the more they believe that voters will blame not them, the instigators, but Trump, the target of their insurrectionary madness.

In Democrats’ blinkered reckoning, voters supposedly would prefer 10,000 illegal aliens methodically and daily swarming the border instead of seeing Minneapolis in utter neo-Confederate revolt.

Second, Democrats seize on every Trump art-of-the-deal excess or coarse putdown.

They scream that narcissistic Trump’s new ballroom has wrecked the White House. Or madman Trump was on the verge of fighting our NATO brethren in Greenland. Or cruel Trump wrecked our relationship with the lovable and blameless Canadians.

Democrats grant that voters sincerely like Trump’s secure border, the new trade agreements that correct past asymmetries, a rearming NATO, a defanged Iran, and the end to Maduro’s communist thugocracy—but not Trump’s messy art-of-the-deal means to achieve those desirable ends.

They scream that Trump talked crazily of making Canada a 51st state, not that it was finally shocked into promising to pay what it owed back in NATO contributions, securing its side of the border, and addressing its massive trade surpluses with the US.

So, Trump needs to avoid the very melodramas the left wants to exploit, which detract from his own undeniable accomplishments and the Democrats’ previous disastrous record.

Third, Democrats still rely on their ossified partnerships with the media, academia, and popular culture to mouth the old talking points.

So we are told ad nauseam that Trump caused the “affordability” crisis.

Or Trump is still Putin’s puppet.

Or Trump was an Epstein groupie.

Or Trump’s trade war crashed the economy.

Behind this stale Democrat boilerplate lies a deep fear that the Nietzschean Trump, just as he beat all their lawfare ambushes, will also do the impossible and avoid losing the Congress in November.

And they should fear.

Trump’s catalysts for a booming 2026 economy are already in place.

No one can now stop massive deregulation, new tax cuts and incentives, recalibrated tariffs, unprecedented foreign investment, record energy development, and the new emerging technologies.

All that is needed before the midterms is not controversial new initiatives, but more focus on the current boom in GDP, lower inflation, and increased purchasing power—all in contrast to Biden’s inflation disaster.

Voters still support closed borders and deportations of criminals and the millions who swarmed in under Biden.

But the best way to remind them of a secure border is to concentrate on partnering with red and purple state and local law enforcement for the next few months.

Each week, the thousands of systematically deported criminals in these jurisdictions will contrast with the thousands of violent offenders who are sanctuaried and protected in failed blue states.

And without the smokescreen of the ICE psychodramas, there are a lot of Democrat fears—like the vast Somali fraud in Minnesota, the even greater welfare scandals emerging in California, and the antics and verbiage of the hard left, like Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, and the herky-jerky Gavin Newsom, who turned California’s natural paradise into a manmade purgatory.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 17:00

You Can Buy Love... (But It's Never Been More Expensive)

Zero Hedge -

You Can Buy Love... (But It's Never Been More Expensive)

U.S. adults will spend a record $29.1 billion on Valentine’s Day this year, according to estimates published by the National Retail Federation.

 Cupid's Arrow Hits Wallets Harder Than Ever in 2026 | Statista You will find more infographics at Statista">As Statista's (ironically named) Valentine Fourreau reports, this is up from last year’s $27.5 billion, with U.S. shoppers planning to spend $200 on average per person, up from $189 in 2025.

 Cupid's Arrow Hits Wallets Harder Than Ever in 2026 | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

According to the NRF, Valentine’s Day was one of the annual events that shoppers tended to splash out the most on last year.

Where the average per person expected spend for the date was $188.81, it was slightly higher for Easter ($189.26), and lower for graduation ($119.54), Halloween ($114.45), Independence Day ($92.44), the Super Bowl ($91.58) and St. Patrick’s Day ($43.64).

A lot of Americans are expected to celebrate the day.

This year, 55 percent of U.S. adults are forecast to mark Valentine’s Day. This is based on a survey of 7,800 U.S. adults conducted between January 2 and January 8, 2026.

The most common gifts consumers plan to give this year are candy (cited by 56 percent of respondents), followed by greeting cards and flowers (both 41 percent).

Outside of significant others, 58 percent of respondents plan on purchasing gifts for other family members such as kids, parents or siblings this year, while 35 percent will be buying gifts for their pets.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 16:40

"An Astonishing Sign Of Cultural Decay..."

Zero Hedge -

"An Astonishing Sign Of Cultural Decay..."

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Sure, Take That Time-Out

“Crisis is when brittleness meets shock. “

- Yuri Bezmenov’s Ghost on X

By shutting down the government for a minimum of ten days supposedly over funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Wile E. Coyote Democratic Party is about to blow up another Acme bomb in its mangy muzzle.

I will tell you why.

First, this DHS business is just a stupid prank to bamboozle the public.

It will not shut down ICE operations, as Chuck Schumer pretends. ICE was already funded with $75-billion in last year’s Big Beautiful Bill. The shutdown will only defund the Coast Guard and airport security. (Does that sound smart?)

Second, senators will be leaving the DC swamp and going home to their states where, it turns out, polls show that voters of both parties combined overwhelmingly favor election reform by 84-percent.

The House has passed the SAVE Act onto the Senate for action, up or down. For at least ten days of the shutdown, the senators will have to explain why proving that you are a citizen to vote is a bad idea — or conversely, why allowing non-citizens to vote is a good idea. So, thanks, Democrats, for sending the senators home to face their voters.

Eventually, senators will have to return to the US Capitol and take up the SAVE Act.

The act will require proof of citizenship to register, photo ID to vote in person and for requesting an absentee ballot. The bill would prohibit universal mail-in voting, require absentee ballots be received by election day, impose a five-year prison sentence for helping anyone to register without correct documents, and provisions to clean up the states’ voter rolls.

Additional legislation still in the House, introduced by Rep. Bryan Steil (R-WI), would provide for Election Day only in-person voting by paper ballots, and yet other bills awaiting action would eliminate electronic vote-tallying machines. All the provisions above are common in most other civilized nations (and even a few that are not, such as Afghanistan). The Democratic Party is against all of it because they can only win national elections by deceit and chicanery.

When Senators return to DC, they will have to overcome the filibuster in its current mode, which is the silent or so-called “zombie” filibuster. You see, in the old days, before 1972, if senators wanted to filibuster, they had to actually hold the Senate floor and keep talking — bringing all Senate business to a complete halt until either they gave up or the majority could gather enough votes for cloture (ending debate). It was physically very hard on the senators, an ordeal, and to get through the hours of mindless blather, they would read the phone book, or the World Almanac, or a Sunday newspaper from page one to the obituaries, which subjected them to ridicule.

After 1972, the Senate introduced what they called “the two-track” system, which allowed the body to move on to other business under a filibuster, without requiring a member to stand and speak. All that was needed was for a senator to inform the leadership that he intended to block a vote, with the backing of 40 other senators. This led to a dramatic increase in the use of filibusters — transforming them from a rare, physically demanding gambit into a routine procedural threat.

Now, the catch is that this change in procedure was never formally voted on. Going from “talking” filibusters to “silent” filibusters didn’t happen through a deliberate decision by the full Senate to change the rules — it emerged in 1972 from a procedural workaround that then Majority Leader Mike Mansfield introduced.

It’s just a custom masquerading as a rule, and one that now Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) could declare null and void.

Doing so would bring back the old talking filibuster. Opponents of a given bill, such as the SAVE Act, would have to step into the well of Senate and offer arguments against election reform, or they could read through the Chicago phone book.

In either case, they’d expose themselves to ridicule. Perhaps those ten days at home during the present government shutdown will lead to an attitude change.

If that doesn’t do it, consider that sometime in the weeks and months ahead, you will be seeing some results from the seizure of the Fulton County, GA, 2020 voting records that took place in January. Since the FBI went in there on a warrant — meaning a judge saw probable cause of voter fraud — the country will likely be exposed to real evidence, for the first time, that one crucial swing state ran a corrupt election operation, and it will no longer be possible for the Democrats to yell that such claims are “baseless” or “debunked.”

It’s an astonishing sign of cultural decay that we are even arguing over election reform at this point.

The measures introduced during the dastardly COVID-19 trip - unlimited mail-in balloting, organized “ballot harvesting,” counting ballots for weeks after Election Day, doing so with Dominion / Smartmatic machines connectable to the Internet, and ignoring chain-of-custody requirements - were patently and obviously dishonest.

That’s what got you four years of “Joe Biden,” a walking-talking lie.

Is there anything that the Democratic Party doesn’t lie about? I’ll wait for your answer.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 16:20

Somali Fallout: US Treasury Will Pay Snitches Up To 30% On Fraud, Money Laundering Prosecutions

Zero Hedge -

Somali Fallout: US Treasury Will Pay Snitches Up To 30% On Fraud, Money Laundering Prosecutions

On the heels of all that Somali fraud in Minnesota, the US Treasury Department on Friday launched a new portal where people can report suspected fraud, money laundering and sanctions violations. 

Snitchin' Bubbles from The Wire

According to officials, tips should be submitted with supporting documents. "FinCEN’s Office of the Whistleblower is accepting tips involving violations and conspiracies related to the Bank Secrecy Act, U.S. sanctions programs, and several other laws critical to safeguarding the U.S. financial system and national security. "

Individuals who voluntarily provide information about such violations or conspiracies to commit violations may be eligible for awards if the information they provide leads to a successful enforcement action by the Department of the Treasury (Treasury) or the Department of Justice (DOJ) that results in monetary penalties exceeding $1,000,000, and the requirements in 31 U.S.C. § 5323 and its implementing regulation are otherwise met. A copy of the statute is available here. -FINCEN

How much are we talking about? Between 10-30% "of what has been collected of the monetary sanctions imposed in the action or related actions," and it's got to be north of $1 million. 

Scott Bessent speaks as he testifies during a Senate Committee on Finance confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., January 16, 2025. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File photo

"President Trump has been clear that Americans have a right to know that their tax dollars are not being diverted to fund acts of global terror or to fund luxury cars for fraudsters," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, adding that whistleblowers may receive financial rewards

"At Treasury, we follow the money. We did it with the mafia, we have done it with the cartels, and we’re doing it with the Somali fraudsters," he added. "We are going to offer whistleblower payments to anyone who wants to tell us the who, what, when, where, and how this fraud and money laundering has occurred."

Bessent told CNBC's "Squawk Box" "It's going to be a great way to ferret out waste, fraud and abuse," adding "We're setting up a website and we will be giving rewards up to 10% to 30% of the fines that we levy."

Minnesota has seen a series of large-scale fraud schemes targeting state-administered federal programs, including child nutrition (Feeding Our Future), housing stabilization services, autism/early intervention (EIDBI), and other Medicaid-funded services. The largest single case, Feeding Our Future, involved a $250 million COVID-era scam where largely Somalian defendants submitted fake meal claims and invoices for nonexistent food distribution, with proceeds funding luxury purchases, real estate, and overseas transfers.

Wider probes into 14 high-risk Medicaid programs (totaling ~$18 billion spent since 2018) estimate that half or more may be fraudulent, pushing overall losses potentially into the billions; additional schemes in personal care assistance, home/community-based services, and substance-use programs have added hundreds of millions more. Many operations involved Somali-run nonprofits, providers, or shell companies that billed for undelivered or fabricated services, though the Feeding Our Future "mastermind" (Aimee Bock) was not Somali. Suspected fraud has extended to child-care/daycare centers (sparked by a late-2025 viral video alleging $30–100 million in overbilling) and other providers, prompting active FBI/DOJ investigations into dozens of centers.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has focused on Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and his state, including its Somali community of up to 80,000 - alleging fraud dating to 2020 by some nonprofit groups which were backed by federal programs administering the state's childcare and other social services programs. 

The IRS is also launching a dedicated fraud task force focused on targeting the misuse of funding by 501(c)(3) tax-exempt entities, Reuters reports.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 15:40

Brazil Proposes National Bitcoin Reserve, Targets 1 Million BTC Over Five Years

Zero Hedge -

Brazil Proposes National Bitcoin Reserve, Targets 1 Million BTC Over Five Years

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Brazilian lawmakers have reintroduced a bill to create a national Strategic Sovereign Bitcoin Reserve, known as RESBit, proposing the gradual acquisition of one million bitcoins over five years. 

The bill, presented by Federal Deputy Luiz Gastão (PSD/CE), outlines a comprehensive framework to integrate Bitcoin into the country’s financial strategy and diversify national reserves.

The proposed legislation establishes several guidelines for RESBit.

First, the plan calls for a gradual accumulation of at least 1,000,000 BTC over five years.

It prohibits the sale of bitcoins seized by Brazilian judicial authorities, ensuring that these assets remain within public control. 

The bill also allows for the collection of Brazil’s federal taxes in Bitcoin and offers incentives for public companies to engage in Bitcoin mining and storage.

Transparency is a central feature of the proposal. The bill mandates public disclosure of RESBit’s bitcoin holdings through internet-based platforms, enabling auditing by the public.

It emphasizes secure storage of digital assets using technologies such as cold wallets, multisignature wallets, and other internationally recognized mechanisms.

In addition, the legislation permits temporary holdings of spot ETFs backed by bitcoin in the reserve portfolio, subject to urgent and limited circumstances.

If approved, Brazil could join a small group of countries actively holding Bitcoin at a national level, potentially surpassing major holders like the United States and China. 

Other countries like Brazil exploring Bitcoin reserves 

Quite famously, El Salvador holds the mantle as the ‘world’s first country’ with a strategic Bitcoin reserve, reporting over 7,560 Bitcoin under President Nayib Bukele’s program.

Despite scaling back mandatory Bitcoin acceptance under IMF agreements, the government has maintained regular purchases, citing long-term financial sovereignty and reserve diversification. The National Bitcoin Office now splits holdings across multiple addresses to bolster security and transparency.

The Central American nation’s approach has inspired policymakers worldwide. In the United States, the BITCOIN Act of 2025 proposed somewhat of a federal strategic Bitcoin reserve, while several states, including New Hampshire and Arizona, have passed or proposed laws allowing portions of public funds to be invested in digital assets.

President Trump’s March 2025 executive order further directed federal agencies to explore Bitcoin accumulation from seized assets without new taxpayer costs.

In Europe, the Czech National Bank has a similar allocation in bitcoin, while Switzerland sees a citizen-led initiative proposing a constitutional mandate for Bitcoin holdings. 

Hong Kong, Ukraine, and Pakistan are also exploring frameworks to hold Bitcoin at the national level, with Pakistan pledging never to sell its future reserves.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 15:20

Trump Plans Venezuela Trip, First U.S. President Visit Since Bill Clinton

Zero Hedge -

Trump Plans Venezuela Trip, First U.S. President Visit Since Bill Clinton

President Donald Trump told reporters outside the White House on Friday afternoon that he plans to visit Venezuela, but offered no details or timeline. If it happens, it would be a historic trip, coming as Venezuelan oil flows accelerate under tighter U.S. oversight.

"I'm going to make a visit to Venezuela... We haven't decided [when]," Trump told reporters, adding that he also had a "good meeting" with Venezuela's neighbor, Colombia.

Reuters said that Trump praised Venezuela's acting president, Delcy Rodriguez.

"We have a very good relationship with the president of Venezuela," Trump said, noting that the U.S. is "working together very closely" with Rodriguez on access to oil.

Asked by Reuters if he will recognize Rodriguez as the official government, Trump responded, "Yeah, we have done that. We are dealing with them, and really, right now they have done a great job."

On Thursday, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told NBC News that Venezuelan oil revenue is no longer being deposited into a Qatari account.

"An account was set up in Qatar, controlled by the U.S. government the whole time, to land that money in and then send the money from there down to Venezuela," Wright said.

The energy secretary continued, "Now we have an account at the U.S. Treasury. The money won’t go to Qatar anymore."

Wright also said that revenue from Venezuelan oil sales now tops $1 billion.

The last sitting US president to visit Venezuela was in 1997, when Bill Clinton traveled to Caracas and met with Rafael Caldera.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 14:40

Leftist Vandals Again Hit Chicago Mural Of Murdered Ukrainian Iryna

Zero Hedge -

Leftist Vandals Again Hit Chicago Mural Of Murdered Ukrainian Iryna

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The Chicago mural honoring Iryna Zarutska, the innocent Ukrainian refugee stabbed to death in cold blood on a Charlotte light rail train, has been vandalized again—just two weeks after its unveiling.

This latest defacement underscores how deranged leftists will go to any lengths to suppress reminders of the deadly fallout from their soft-on-crime policies, even when the victim is a refugee who fled war.

The mural, painted on a three-story brick building at West Montrose and North Western avenues in Chicago’s North Center neighborhood, depicts Zarutska’s face gazing solemnly, a stark memorial to her senseless murder last August by repeat offender Decarlos Brown Jr.

The artwork was defaced for the second time in just 14 days. Video footage shows the vandalism, highlighting the graffiti scrawled across the tribute.

This incident follows a pattern of attacks on similar murals nationwide, as we previously reported.

In Brooklyn’s Bushwick, a massive mural was tagged with “F-ck Trump” shortly after completion, while Manhattan’s Lower East Side version was hit with “Please vandalize this” spray-painted over Zarutska’s face.

Florida’s Pensacola mural faced repeated assaults, defaced at least three times with mockery of her death.

Zarutska, 23, escaped the horrors of Russia’s war in Ukraine, seeking safety in the U.S. as a refugee. Her killer, Brown, had been arrested and released 14 times prior, a direct result of Democrat-run cities prioritizing criminals over public safety.

Surveillance footage captured the brutal attack, with Brown reportedly boasting, “I got that white girl,” as bystanders tried to save her. The racial angle was downplayed by corporate media, in stark contrast to their amplification of other cases.

President Trump highlighted Zarutska’s murder in speeches, vowing to crack down on “savage bloodthirsty criminals” unleashed by leftist agendas. 

The mural campaign, backed by over $1 million from Elon Musk and others, aims to keep her memory alive and spotlight these policy failures.

But leftists can’t tolerate it. Outlets like The Guardian have smeared the effort as “weaponizing her memory” through “sterile” art, ignoring the real hypocrisy: Zarutska embodies the very refugees they claim to champion, yet her story is erased because it bolsters Trump’s push for law and order.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 14:20

The Bigger Problem That The Tim Walz NGO Scandal Has Exposed

Zero Hedge -

The Bigger Problem That The Tim Walz NGO Scandal Has Exposed

Authored by Edward Woodson via American Greatness,

The Minnesota nonprofit fraud scandal, now expected to cost taxpayers more than $9 billion, is being dismissed by many as an isolated failure. However, this is far from the case, and writing it off as such would be a colossal mistake.

What it actually revealed is a broader problem in the Swamp—that institutions claiming to represent others often operate with little accountability and then quietly drift away from the very people who are footing the bill.

In Minnesota, nonprofit organizations became the perfect vehicle for abuse—shielded from scrutiny, politically protected, and flush with public money. However, in Washington, trade associations operate in largely the same way. They collect millions in dues from American businesses while increasingly choosing to serve their own leadership’s personal and political interests instead of those of their dues-paying members.

Their members only care about being able to deliver good-paying jobs to their employees and securing a more favorable regulatory climate so they can deliver lower-priced goods for the American people; however, you’d never know that if you looked at the public policy priorities of their association leadership officials, who seem more interested in fitting in at woke radical leftist cocktail parties.

Jay Timmons, president and CEO of the National Association of Manufacturers, has repeatedly broken with Republicans by sharply criticizing Donald Trump, including after January 6, when he called Trump’s actions “mob rule,” urged Vice President Mike Pence to invoke the 25th Amendment, and faulted the administration’s handling of COVID-19. Despite that record, Timmons later congratulated Trump on his November 2024 victory and suggested they should “work together like we did before.” At the same time, Timmons praised and partnered with Joe Biden, backing the administration’s COVID-19 vaccine campaign and publicly supporting the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the CHIPS and Science Act. In 2022, he also donated to Adam Kinzinger’s leadership PAC just days after Kinzinger was censured by the Republican Party.

If a presidency was truly so dangerous five years ago that it was deemed incompatible with democracy itself, it is fair to ask how the same association leadership can now claim alignment and cooperation without any explanation, accountability, or evident change in approach.

That kind of abrupt pivot invites skepticism from dues-paying manufacturers who expect their trade groups to be guided by member interests, not political positioning or reputational hedging.

The problem is compounded by a reliance on press releases in place of real relationships. Press releases don’t move policy—relationships do. Manufacturers don’t pay dues for moral posturing, elite signaling, or ceremonial access; they pay for results. When leadership spends years attacking an administration only to reverse course once the election is settled—substituting optics for engagement—it raises a fundamental question about who the organization is really serving.

Then there’s the Investment Company Institute, which represents asset managers navigating an intensely regulated environment. Its CEO, Eric Pan, earns roughly $3 million a year while publicly aligning himself with progressive causes and donating to Democratic candidates—even those running against Republican senators who oversee key committees affecting pensions and financial markets.

Under Pan’s control, the ICI went head over heels for Biden’s climate change agenda, endorsing a proposed rule by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that would push to mandate climate-impact disclosures. Critics warned the proposals blurred the line between securities regulation and social policymaking, forcing companies to engage in politically charged “compelled speech” untethered from core financial risk.  They cautioned that the rules would impose significant compliance costs, expose firms to heightened litigation risk, and overwhelm investors with data of dubious relevance. This makes sense from the standpoint that Pan brags about teaching his students at Columbia Law a “rich, progressive curriculum.” This kind of political posturing is putting the organization’s member companies at odds with the very policymakers who shape their regulatory futures.

Even the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, long seen as the flagship advocate for free enterprise, lost credibility with many small businesses during the Biden years. While its executives collected multi-million-dollar compensation packages, the Chamber backed COVID mandates, massive spending bills, and climate policies that drove up costs for employers and workers alike.

When small businesses were struggling to stay afloat, the Chamber’s Washington insiders were doing just fine. The CEO, Suzanne Clark, earned $6.6 million, and the Chief Policy Officer, Neil Bradley, earned nearly $2 million.

For small businesses writing checks every year, what are those association dues actually buying? Better free-market conservative policies? Measurable regulatory relief? Or just access, prestige, and fat salaries for executives whose priorities no longer align with the firms they represent?

Trade associations should exist to fight relentlessly for free enterprise—predictable rules, property rights, competition, and growth. When they become tollbooths to Washington rather than shields against it, they fail in their mission.

The Minnesota NGO scandal should serve as a textbook warning of how institutions that operate without accountability eventually stop serving their stated purpose. Businesses, especially small businesses, should demand better.

Any group, whether in Minnesota or in DC, that claims to represent the American people should be able to answer three basic questions:

  • Who do you actually speak for?

  • What concrete wins have you delivered in the last 12 months for the people you serve?

  • Whose interests come first—your members or your executives?

Right now, too many are not able to answer these basic questions.

Ronald Reagan once said, “We must be willing to pay for excellence in government or risk a government run only by people of wealth or by those beholden to special interests.”

If we don’t demand the same for the groups that represent us at the government negotiating table, then those same negative consequences will arise. And that’s in no one’s interest.

It’s time we demand better.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 13:40

Two Philadelphia Men Admit To AI-Assisted $3.5M Housing Aid Scam In Minnesota

Zero Hedge -

Two Philadelphia Men Admit To AI-Assisted $3.5M Housing Aid Scam In Minnesota

This will be the first of many AI scams of its kind, we predict...

Two men from Pennsylvania admitted to repeatedly flying from Philadelphia to Minneapolis to exploit Minnesota’s Housing Stabilization Services (HSS) program, stealing about $3.5 million, according to prosecutors. Authorities say they used artificial intelligence to forge records and falsely bill for services, according to Fox News.

Anthony Waddell Jefferson, 37, and Lester Brown, 53, registered businesses as HSS providers, claiming they offered housing support and transition services. In reality, officials say much of the work never happened.

Launched in 2020, HSS helps people with disabilities, seniors, and those struggling with mental health or addiction secure housing. The Justice Department has noted the program had “low barriers to entry and minimal records requirements.”

Attorney General Pam Bondi said, “Criminal fraud not only robs taxpayers — it shatters trust in our institutions… Our prosecutors will work tirelessly to unravel criminal fraud schemes.”

Fox News writes that prosecutors allege the pair billed Medicaid for services supposedly provided to about 230 clients. Both men pleaded guilty to wire fraud and face up to 20 years in prison.

Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche stated, “Minnesota will no longer be a haven for fraud under our watch,” adding that dozens of convictions have already been secured in the state.

Investigators say Jefferson and Brown promoted themselves as “The Housing Guys” at shelters and Section 8 housing sites to recruit clients. Jefferson allegedly hired relatives and associates to produce fake service notes, sometimes using invented employee names. Brown reportedly failed to keep required records. Authorities also say the men fabricated emails and used ChatGPT to generate false documentation.

Assistant Attorney General A. Tysen Duva said, “They traveled across the country for one purpose: to prey upon and steal millions in taxpayer dollars,” emphasizing that such schemes threaten federally funded programs nationwide.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 13:20

Financial Nihilism & The Trap Young Investors Are Walking Into

Zero Hedge -

Financial Nihilism & The Trap Young Investors Are Walking Into

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The article from the Wall Street Journal titled “Why My Generation Is Turning to Financial Nihilism” by Kyla Scanlon argues that Gen Z is embracing high-risk financial behavior out of despair and detachment. Of course, it is essential to recognize that Kyla, although well-intentioned, is a young twenty-something influencer with limited real-life experience, and sees things for “her generation” through a very narrow lens of “recency bias.”

Let’s start with understanding that “Financial Nihilism” is a term used to describe an attitude where people believe financial decisions are meaningless because the system is rigged, the future is hopeless, or traditional paths to wealth are broken. The term “Financial Nihilism” was first coined in 2020 by Demetri Kofinas, a podcaster, who used it to describe his belief that speculative assets lack intrinsic value, driven by a loss of faith in traditional economic systems.

However, while this phrase has gained popularity in recent years, particularly following the GameStop short squeeze, crypto mania, and the rise of meme trading, it disappeared when all of that collapsed in 2022. However, after three years of unprecedented market gains in every asset class, from stocks to cryptocurrencies to precious metals, “Financial Nihilism” has resurfaced to rationalize “speculative excess” and justify abandoning long-term investment strategies that have withstood the “sands of time.”

While Kyla produced a bombastic article to gain social media exposure by suggesting that Gen Z and Millennials no longer believe in saving, investing, or following traditional financial paths, the data shows something very different.

  • Over half of Gen Z holds investments in traditional financial products, according to FINRA and the CFA Institute.
  • A 2023 Vanguard report showed Gen Z participants in retirement plans were increasing contributions, not fleeing traditional investing.
  • Charles Schwab’s Modern Investor Study found Gen Z prefers low-cost ETFs and index funds, strategies built around long-term returns.
  • Pew Research data shows that Gen Z and Millennials are investing at earlier ages than previous generations.

None of these behaviors is nihilistic. They are practical and reflect economic constraints, not philosophical despair.

Yes, there is undoubtedly a pool of young investors throwing “caution to the wind” and aggressively investing in speculative assets to “get rich quick.” But even my children, at the ripe old age of 22, think they are unique and different and that no one understands their challenges. We parents, of course, have “no idea” about their situation. Of course, this is the problem with our youth who have no real-world experience or a sense of history. We, the “old people,” were the ones speculating on Dot.com investments in the late 90s, just before it all went bust. As I wrote in“Retail Investors Flood The Market,”

“Is it 1999 or 2007? Retail investors flood the market as speculation grows rampant with a palpable exuberance and belief of no downside risk. What could go wrong?

Do you remember this commercial?

That commercial aired just 2 months shy of the beginning of the “Dot.com” bust. We “youngsters” at the time thought Warren Buffett was an idiot for avoiding technology stocks because “he didn’t get it.”

Turns out he was right.

But that wasn’t the first time that we youngsters had to learn the risks of chasing “hot investments,” and why “this time is NEVER different.” The following E*Trade commercial aired during Super Bowl XLI in 2007. The following year, the financial crisis set in, markets plunged, and once again, investors lost 50% or more of their wealth by refusing to listen to the warnings.

Why this trip down memory lane? (Other than the fact that the commercials are hilarious to watch.) Because what is happening today is NOT “Financial Nihilism,” it is the typical outcome of exuberance seen during strongly trending bull market cycles.

While young people, like Kyla, may think that “this time is different,” they lack the historical experience to support such a conclusion. Ask anyone who has lived through two “real” bear markets, and the imagery of people trying to  “daytrade” their way to riches is all too familiar. The recent surge in speculative excess, leverage, and greed is not a new phenomenon.

With that said, let’s examine the issues with Kyla’s article and why “Financial Nihilism” is a myth.

“Meme Stocks and Crypto Aren’t Jokes Anymore. They’re Cries for Help.”

I loved this line from her diatribe as it suggests that Gen Z uses risky financial products as an emotional outlet. She implies that young people are not seeking returns but rather relief from feelings of hopelessness. While that framing sells well, it doesn’t hold up under scrutiny. While speculative assets like cryptocurrency and meme stocks attract younger buyers, that’s not proof of despair. Instead, it reflects broader exposure to digital markets, higher risk tolerance, easy access to trading (via platforms like Robinhood), leverage, and the rise of a gambling mentality.

But this is a newer development.

“Historically, access to capital markets was highly mediated, available only to institutions or individuals who had the time, money and resources to manage their assets with the help of brokers and financial advisors. Today, market data is readily accessible online and new technologies have significantly reduced the cost of trading and other barriers to entry. This means that more people can trade, at any time, from anywhere.” – World Economic Forum

Since 2016, the volume recorded at platforms that match orders from brokerages, a proxy for retail activity, has posted its third consecutive annual increase, rising by 15%. Meanwhile, the average daily volume of US-listed stocks has been ~12.0 billion shares since 2019, which is ~75% above the levels seen over the prior six years. Most notably, just over the last 12 months, daily volume has averaged a massive 16.7 billion shares.

Yes, retail investors are piling into the market. But why wouldn’t they after watching 15 years of market returns that are 50% above historical norms, and seeming “no risk” for speculative activities?

However, there is a difference between risk appetite and recklessness. As noted above, the data indicate that Gen Z is starting to engage with investing at a younger age than previous generations, and many hold investments for the long term while utilizing digital tools to experiment with their investments. That may include crypto or options, but it’s not a binary between discipline and nihilism.

Emotional narratives about “cries for help” obfuscate the data. Investors in their 20s often take more risk because they have longer time horizons. But where they are going wrong is through the amount of speculative risk and gambling behaviors they have adopted without financial guidance and education.

As noted above, “youngsters” gambling with investments is not new. Every generation throughout history has speculated on risk assets through every bull market cycle. But, unfortunately, regardless of age, speculative bubbles all ended the same way.

Gen Z didn’t “reinvent” the market; they are just entering a market that incentivizes risk-taking. Until it doesn’t.

“People My Age Don’t Think the System Works, So Why Follow Its Rules?”

Scanlon asserts that Gen Z has lost faith in traditional finance and institutions, and assumes systemic distrust is translating into a rejection of personal responsibility.

That isn’t an argument. It’s an excuse for “victimization.”In other words, my personal financial situation is not a result of my personal behaviors, spending habits, work ethic, or savings process, but it’s the “system’s fault.” Yet there is vast data to the contrary, showing that successful young individuals who follow the tried-and-true process of financial pathways succeed. Do they have as much wealth as their parents? Of course, they don’t, because they haven’t had the time to accumulate it. However, they are early on the path to success, which will likely outpace their peers.

Furthermore, this argument falsely equates skepticism with nihilism. Many young investors distrust centralized finance due to real-world events, including the 2008 crash, rising debt burdens, and stagnant wages. But rejecting blind trust in institutions is not the same as rejecting financial logic. Despite disillusionment, Gen Z invests at higher rates than Millennials did at the same age, according to Pew and the WEF. They also save a larger share of their income, using digital apps and platforms to automate their financial behavior.

Yes, Gen Z tends to distrust the government and financial media, but do you blame them, given the garbage that is produced daily on social media and YouTube by people with an agenda to promote? While skepticism fuels caution, it is not chaos. Gen Z is more likely to question fees, demand transparency, and seek passive investment tools, and that’s a smart move. Traditional rules of finance, such as saving consistently, spending less than you earn, and investing for the long term, are still followed; they just don’t generate “media-grabbing headlines.”

Calling this behavior “Financial Nihilism” misses the point. Gen Z is engaging with markets on its own terms, and while not all methods are necessarily healthy, it represents adaptation, not rejection.

“If the Future Feels Doomed, Why Not YOLO Trade Into It?”

Lastly, Kyla suggests that existential dread leads young people to treat the market like a casino. The idea is that if nothing matters, risk doesn’t either. This is the article’s weakest argument. While social and economic pressures are real, they are not driving widespread self-destruction. They are driving innovation in how people build and manage their wealth.

The idea behind this line is that young people, facing what feels like a bleak financial future, are throwing caution to the wind to gamble on crypto, options, and meme stocks to build wealth fast, rather than creating “lasting wealth.” This is where the term “YOLO trading” comes in, making aggressive bets with the mindset that there’s nothing to lose. However, as noted above, there is certain logic to that mindset, given that over the last 15 years, every market downturn has been met by either fiscal or monetary interventions. Repeated bailouts of bad investment decisions have created a “moral hazard” in the marketplace.

There’s truth here, but only part of it.

Yes, a subset of young investors is engaging in reckless speculation. They take on excessive risk, invest in volatile assets, and often trade on hype rather than fundamentals. Many borrow money to do it. This group exists, and their outcomes won’t be good. Some will lose money, and likely most will wipe themselves out entirely. The market is unforgiving when paired with leverage, inexperience, and emotional trading.

Here is a great example of the “YOLO” trading fallacy. Since the end of the “Meme Stock” craze in 2021, retail investors on Robinhood have made no money, even after accounting for the $4-5 billion wipeout in the January rout. That’s 5 years of their investing time horizon gone, whereas just investing in the S&P 500 index would have produced far superior results.

But this behavior doesn’t define the generation. It represents the tail end of the distribution—the loudest, not the largest.

What’s left out of Kyla’s article is what happens after the eventual realization that “trading” is a losing exercise over the long term. Early losses are the price of financial education, and, hopefully, if they survive financially, they will change their approach and revert to more traditional principles that have endured over the decades. In other words, they grow up and learn from the experience just as every great investor in history has.

The future is not doomed. But it is fragile for those who ignore risk. Financial outcomes depend on staying in the game long enough to benefit from compounding. If you blow yourself up in your 20s, you lose that opportunity.

The lesson is simple. Speculation is fun while you are winning, but that is not “Financial Nihilism.” It is simply greed masquerading as investing. However, the people who win in the long term are not gamblers. They’re grinders. They keep costs low, automate savings, and make decisions that allow them to survive market cycles. That’s not as flashy as YOLO trading, but that is how wealth is built.

What Gen Z Should Do: Build Survivability, Not Sensation

Despite the bad headlines, most young people are serious about their money. But seriousness alone doesn’t build wealth. The key is survivability, the ability to stay in the game long enough to benefit from compounding returns.

Do yourself and your financial future a favor: turn off bombastic, emotionally charged headlines and focus on what matters for building long-term wealth. Crucially, whether you agree with the current financial and economic system or not, learn to take advantage of it.

The only thing YOU can change is YOUR future. So stop worrying about things you can not control.

To get there, start here.

  • Turn off the social media, influencers, and other financial goblins and focus on your goals and behaviors.

  • Keep fixed expenses low

  • Build cash reserves that cover 6 months of spending

  • Use retirement accounts like Roth IRAs early

  • Allocate most of their portfolio to index funds or ETFs

  • Limit risky bets to no more than 5% of their total assets

  • Learn through action, not theory, and track everything

  • Avoid the leverage period.

The goal is not to outperform every year or get rich quickly. The goal is to stay solvent long enough for your savings to generate a return.

Financial nihilism is a myth. What’s real is volatility, income pressure, and distrust. The response shouldn’t be disengagement, but rather financial discipline. Long-run wealth isn’t about hope; it’s about repeatable behaviors that work consistently through market cycles.

The biggest problem for most young investors is the lack of research on the stocks they buy. They are only buying them “because they were going up.” 

However, when the “season does change,” the “fundamentals” will matter, and they matter a lot.

Such is something most won’t learn from “social media” influencers.

As Ray Dalio once quipped:

“The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist. They assume that something that was a good investment in the recent past is still a good investment. Typically, high past returns simply imply that an asset has become more expensive and is a poorer, not better, investment.”

Investing is a game of “risk.” 

It is often stated that the more “risk” you take, the more money you can make. However, the actual definition of risk is “how much you will lose when something goes wrong.” 

Following the “Dot.com crash,” many individuals learned the perils of “risk” and “leverage.”  

Unfortunately, for Gen-Z’ers, such is a lesson that is still waiting to be learned.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 13:00

EU Weighs Deploying Training Sites In Ukraine As Kremlin Warns: 'Legitimate Targets'

Zero Hedge -

EU Weighs Deploying Training Sites In Ukraine As Kremlin Warns: 'Legitimate Targets'

The European Union is weighing plans to set up two military bases inside Ukraine to train fresh troops - a move Moscow has already warned could make them targets of military strikes.

"We have been discussing the training of the Ukrainian soldiers, also on the soil of Ukraine," EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Wednesday. "We have identified two training centers that could be used for that purpose."

The Kremlin made clear just a month ago: "The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs warns that the deployment of military units, military facilities, warehouses, and other infrastructure of Western countries on Ukrainian territory will be classified as foreign intervention, posing a direct threat to the security of not only Russia but also other European countries," according to the warning of spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.

Western governments have already trained tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops over the course of the four-year grinding war with Russia - but this has been concentrated in countries like Britain, Denmark, and Poland.

The Western training of Ukraine forces was happening long before the current war: Below is a Spanish military instructor (right) training a group of Ukrainian soldiers at the army base of Toledo, on December 2, 2022 - according to El Pais...

AFP/Elpais

On Thursday, Colonel General Andrey Serdyukov accused Europe of accelerating preparations for direct confrontation. "The militarization of Europe is continuing at an accelerated pace, openly aimed at preparing for a military confrontation with Russia," he said.

He added that "The territories are being rapidly fortified, and the relevant infrastructure is being improved."

The alleged 'NATOization' of Ukraine was a prime reason Moscow listed for going to war in the first place. Since Putin's 'special military operation' next door, the opposite trend has happened: NATO is firmly ensconced in Kiev, in terms of the billions in weapons, equipment, and funds already poured in.

Meanwhile, the EU has just this week approved a fresh $100 billion loan package for Ukraine.

As for proposed 'EU bases' - it's hard to see this as in reality less than a full NATO established outpost in Ukraine. Russian leadership will see it as a recipe from taking the proxy war toward a full blown conflict directly with NATO.

The minute an 'EU base' comes under Russian aerial attack, the gloves would  be off, and NATO would likely seize the opportunity to enter the conflict directly against a nuclear-armed superpower.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 12:40

Watch: Sen. Johnson Unloads On MN AG Ellison Over Anti-ICE Agitator Deaths

Zero Hedge -

Watch: Sen. Johnson Unloads On MN AG Ellison Over Anti-ICE Agitator Deaths

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Viral footage from a Senate hearing captures Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson tearing into Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison for allegedly exploiting and encouraging anti-ICE agitators whose actions led to deadly clashes with federal agents.

This raw exchange highlights the escalating tensions over leftist obstruction of Trump’s deportation efforts, putting law enforcement in the crosshairs while shielding criminal illegal aliens.

The clips stem from a Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing, focused on oversight of immigration enforcement amid recent fatal incidents in Minneapolis.

In one segment, Johnson accuses Ellison of fueling the chaos that resulted in the deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti.

“A tragedy was going to happen and YOU ENCOURAGED IT! You ought to feel DAMN GUILTY about it!” Johnson shouts.

He continues: “two people are DEAD because you encouraged them to put themselves in harm’s way. And now you EXPLOIT those 2 people. It never should’ve happened!”

Johnson paints a vivid picture of the dangers faced by ICE agents: “I can’t imagine being a law enforcement official where I know my colleagues have been shot at, their vehicles rammed, that there are trained activists deployed.”

“And by the way, we know at least one of those activists had a semi-automatic pistol with extra clips!” Johnson adds.

“So now you’re an ICE officer. You’re doing enforcement action. You’ve got a team behind you trying to protect you,” he continues, urging “You’ve got all these trained activists behind you. Is it any wonder they’re at hair-trigger alert? A tragedy was going to happen and you encouraged it!”

In another clip from the same hearing, Johnson presses Ellison on his awareness of organized Signal chats and trainings used by agitators to interfere with ICE operations.

“I’d think as chief law enforcement officer you’d be CONCERNED about it! Were you not concerned people who support you put themselves into harm’s way!” Johnson demands.

Ellison responds: “Sir, that never happened! We said protest peacefully and safely!”

Johnson retorts: “You were seeing the scuffles. Minneapolis police couldn’t even protect ICE agents!”

This hearing comes amid broader congressional scrutiny over ICE tactics following the shootings of U.S. citizens during enforcement actions.

The accusations against Ellison tie into a pattern of Democrat-led resistance to federal immigration laws, endangering agents and communities alike.

As we covered recently, AOC announced training to teach agitators how to block ICE agents and doxx feds.

 

The New York Democrat is pushing “teach-ins” with Hands Off NYC to legally observe, film, and note ICE activities, praising rapid responses that halt deportations amid surging threats to agents.

Investigative journalist Michael Shellenberger has warned that the left is getting people killed at this point, citing delusions like disbelief in real bullets and radicalization that leads protesters, including those with children, into dangerous clashes.

Scott Jennings destroyed Democrats for refusing to condemn a DA’s vow to ‘hunt down Nazi’ ICE agents, labeling it outrageous rhetoric that divides against officers enforcing federal law, including promises of “reign of terror” against ICE workers.

Meanwhile, leftist foundations and foreign donors are bankrolling anti-ICE sabotage networks. Leaked Signal chats revealed donor ties to Soros, Ford, and MacArthur, supporting harassment zones and patrols to thwart federal raids.

Minnesota Dems were caught facilitating paid insurrection networks to sabotage ICE, with encrypted groups tied to Gov. Tim Walz’s administration dividing cities for agent tracking and using state resources for 24/7 disruptions.

A CCP-linked billionaire is also suspected to have funded anti-ICE riots as Minnesota saboteurs scatter.

Americans overwhelmingly demand deporting illegals and full cooperation with ICE, with 73% viewing illegal entry as law-breaking, and 67% calling for local-federal collaboration against criminal aliens.

As congressional probes intensify, these hearings demand accountability from Democrats whose rhetoric and networks fuel violence against those securing America’s borders.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 11:00

Alibaba Stock Nosedives, Then Rebounds, After Pentagon Designates Company As "Military Linked", Before Inexplicably Deleting

Zero Hedge -

Alibaba Stock Nosedives, Then Rebounds, After Pentagon Designates Company As "Military Linked", Before Inexplicably Deleting

The Trump administration on Friday added some of China's biggest companies, including Alibaba and Baidu, ‌to a list of firms allegedly aiding China's military - however, strangely the listing was pulled within mere minutes with no explanation initially issued. A Bloomberg newswire Friday morning indicated:

US PULLS DOCUMENT THAT LISTED FIRMS LINKED TO CHINA MILITARY

This was quickly followed by a correction: US removes document that listed firms linked to China's military and then the clarification that US Agency requested withdrawal of documentper the Federal Register. All of this was enough to cause Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) stock to fall 5% and Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) to drop 2% Friday immediately on the reports, followed by a swift rebound on word of the sudden delisting.

The initial, and now withdrawn listing comes amid allegations from US officials that Alibaba is Chinese military-linked company, part of the Trump strategy of ratcheting up pressure ‌on Beijing ahead of an expected meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The much anticipated summit is currently set for the first week of April, ahead of which Washington has taken a series of measures, seen as typical Washington leverage-building with Beijing. But as Reuters has observed, the White House seems to be treading very carefully, not wanting to go too far in provoking the ire of Beijing, which could derail the key visit before it even kicks off:

The Trump administration has shelved a number of key tech security measures aimed at Beijing ahead of an April meeting between the two countries' presidents. The measures include a ban on China Telecom's U.S. operations and restrictions on sales of Chinese equipment for U.S. data centers, sources said.

The U.S. has also put on hold proposed bans on domestic sales of routers made by TP-Link and the U.S. internet business of China Unicom and China Mobile along with another measure that would bar sales of Chinese electric trucks and buses in the U.S., four people said, declining to be named.

Did some mid-level Pentagon officer not get the memo?

Perhaps the 'mistake' was realized post-haste in view of the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit, and that Alibaba 'military-linked' sanctions would only poison the waterOr... a risky Trump 'tactic' in the lead-in to April?

No immediately clarifying information on just what is going on has been forthcoming. 

This of course isn't the first time the Pentagon has played its hand regarding its well-known view of Alibaba's alleged Chinese PLA ties, but this brief Friday morning episode certainly escalates things from Beijing's point of view, even if it was quickly 'taken back'. But the proverbial cat is out of the bag.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 10:40

US Core CPI Tumbles To Slowest In 4 Years; Real Wage Growth Surges

Zero Hedge -

US Core CPI Tumbles To Slowest In 4 Years; Real Wage Growth Surges

Rate-cut expectations have surged (dovishly) higher this week (along with tumbling Treasury yields) amid a mixed macro picture (Labor market 'good', Retail sales bad, Housing ugly).

Today could change all that as CPI for January prints with risk skewed to the upside. January brings annual resets and they tend to surprise on the high side.

Despite the 'hot' whisper numbers (and 4 previous Januarys in a row of upside surprises), headline consumer price inflation came in cooler than expected in January (+0.2% MoM vs +0.3% expected). That pulled the headline CPI down dramatically from +2.7% to +2.4% - near the lowest in 4 years...

Source: Bloomberg

Food cost inflation is slowing, Energy is deflating...

Core CPI printed +0.3% MoM (in line with expectations), lowering the YoY change in core prices to +2.5% - the lowest since March 2021...

Source: Bloomberg

Goods inflation is clearly lacking (despite UMich respondents being sure we'd by hyperinflating by now)...

The much-watched SuperCore CPI (Services Ex-Shelter) rose notably (+0.6% MoM) but the YoY figure remains at its lowest since Sept 2021...

Driven by a big jump in Transportation and Education costs...

CPI Highlights:
  • The Shelter index rose 0.2% in January and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.2% over the month as did the food at home index, while the food away from home index rose 0.1 percent. These increases were partially offset by the index for energy, which fell 1.5% in January.

  • The core CPI index rose 0.3% in January. Indexes that increased over the month include airline fares, personal care, recreation, medical care, and communication. The indexes for used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, and motor vehicle insurance were among the major indexes that decreased in January

On a YoY basis, the all items index rose 2.4% for the 12 months ending January, after rising 2.7% for the 12 months ending December. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.5% over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 0.1% for the 12 months ending January. The food index increased 2.9% over the last year.

  • The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.5 percent over the past 12 months. The shelter index increased 3.0 percent over the last year. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include medical care (+3.2 percent), household furnishings and operations (+3.9 percent), recreation (+2.5 percent), and personal care (+5.4 percent).

CPI Details:
  • The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in January.

    • The shelter index increased 0.2 percent over the month.

    • The index for owners’ equivalent rent also rose 0.2 percent in January as did the index for rent.

    • The lodging away from home index fell 0.1 percent over the month.

  • The index for airline fares increased 6.5 percent over the month.

  • The personal care index rose 1.2 percent in January and the recreation index rose 0.5 percent.

  • The index for communication rose 0.5 percent over the month and the index for apparel increased 0.3 percent.

  • The new vehicles index rose 0.1 percent in January. The medical care index increased 0.3 percent in January.

    • The used cars and trucks index declined 1.8 percent in January

  • The index for hospital services increased 0.9 percent over the month and the index for physicians’ services rose 0.3 percent.

  • The prescription drugs index was unchanged in January

  • The household furnishings and operations index decreased 0.1 percent over the month.

  • The index for motor vehicle insurance decreased 0.4 in January.

Electricity costs have never been higher...

Digging deeper into the CPI report, motor fuel was the single biggest change in what negatively influenced the headline number.

As Bloomberg's Simon White shows in the chart above, motor fuel contributed +0.03% points to December’s year-on-year CPI, but negative 0.21% points in January, for a change in contribution of negative 0.24% points, notably larger than any other component. Gas prices bottomed in mid-January and are up almost 5% since then.

On a shorter-term basis, inflation is slowing - plain and simple...

For now, we seem to be avoiding a 1970s redux in Fed policy error helping to re-ignite an inflationary rebound...

Source: Bloomberg

...but time will tell ('run it hot').

On the other side of the ledger, January saw real average weekly earnings rise 1.9% YoY - its highest since March 2021...

Finally, according to JPM's CPI market reaction matrix (based on what the core CPI MoM prints), we should expect a solid up day for stocks:

  • Core MoM prints above 0.45%. SPX loses 1.25% - 2.5%: odds 5.0%

  • Core MoM prints between 0.40% - 0.45%. SPX gains 0.25% to loses 75bps; odds 25.0%

  • Core MoM prints between 0.35% - 0.40%. SPX gains 0.25% to 0.75%; odds 42.5%

  • Core MoM prints between 0.30% - 0.35%. SPX gains 1% - 1.5%; odds 22.5%

  • Core MoM prints below 0.30%. SPX gains 1.25% - 1.75%; odds 5.0%

 

For now, what we do know is that the mnainstream media's constant fearmongering over Trump Tariff-flation was yet another canard crushing the PhDs' credibility even further.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 10:38

NATO Allies Pledge More Than A Billion To Supply Ukraine With US-Made Weapons

Zero Hedge -

NATO Allies Pledge More Than A Billion To Supply Ukraine With US-Made Weapons

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

NATO member nations on Feb. 12 announced new financial support to purchase U.S. military hardware for Ukraine, reaffirming their commitment to ending the war this year.

“We want to make 2026 the year this war ends—the year we secure peace,” UK Secretary of Defense John Healey said after a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels.

This month marks four years since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when Russian forces launched an assault in the early morning hours of Feb. 24, 2022.

The UK approved $680 million in an emergency allocation for new air defense missiles and systems, Healey announced.

“We all welcome progress made by the U.S. to broker peace. For now, the war continues,” he said.

At the meeting, Norway, the Netherlands, and Germany announced they would fund a new $500 million package to purchase air defense equipment, ammunition, and other items from the United States.

Johann Wadephul, Germany’s foreign minister, said the country would also contribute to Ukraine’s anti-drone dome project designed to counter Russia’s drone swarms.

The homegrown dome system, formed by former businessman and television producer Pavlo Yelizarov, is designed to protect critical infrastructure and cities by destroying Russia’s incoming Iranian-designed suicide attack drones, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced in January.

The dome is made up of small, mobile teams using cheap 3D-printed interceptor drones that scramble to destroy the incoming attacks. Deployment of the dome is scheduled for later this year.

Germany also plans to deliver five interceptor missiles if other supporting countries donate 30, Wadephul added. The country has also given five of its 12 Patriot interceptor missile surface-to-air systems.

“We all know it’s about saving lives,” Wadephul said. “It’s a matter of days, not months.”

On Feb. 3, Sweden and Denmark also approved aid to bolster Ukrainian air defenses with Swedish-made Tridon Mk2 systems, which are highly mobile and designed to counter drones and cruise missiles.

A firefighter douses a building hit by a Russian drone in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Jan. 12, 2026. Thomas Peter/Reuters

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte thanked the allied nations for continuing to contribute to Ukraine’s defenses while a peace deal is negotiated.

“Ukraine needs our support now more than ever,” Rutte said. “I’m urging all nations to step up their support and to share that burden. There are also many hard at work to ensure that the bloodshed stops and there is a lasting end to this war. We are committed to keeping this support as strong as possible now and into the future.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 10:20

DP World Boss Resigns As "Epstein Disruption" Spreads Across Corporate World

Zero Hedge -

DP World Boss Resigns As "Epstein Disruption" Spreads Across Corporate World

The "Epstein Disruption" continued to rock corporate America and the world overnight.

First, Kathryn Ruemmler, Goldman Sachs' chief legal officer and general counsel, announced her resignation Thursday night amid scrutiny over ties to Jeffrey Epstein.

Ruemmler told the Financial Times that she will exit Goldman on June 30, and said, "I made the determination that the media attention on me, relating to my prior work as a defense attorney, was becoming a distraction.

Ruemmler previously served as the White House Counsel during the Obama administration. She told Axios that it was her "responsibility…to put Goldman Sachs' interests first"...

Following Ruemmler's decision to resign, the next corporate fallout tied to the trove of Epstein documents released by the U.S. Department of Justice hit DP World, where the head of the Dubai-based logistics group stepped down.

DP World announced earlier that its CEO, Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, will step down, following renewed scrutiny of his relationship with Epstein this week.

FT reports that the Dubai government announced that Essa Kazim will be named chair of its board and Yuvraj Narayan will be named CEO of DP World.

Revelations about Sulayem's relationship with Epstein in the latest tranche of DoJ files prompted two government-linked investment funds, La Caisse and British International Investment, some of DP World's top partners, to warn they would pause future deals unless "required actions" were taken.

By the end of the week, Sulayem stepped down.

Sulayem and Epstein cooking together... 

BII said that it would "not be making any new investments with DP World until the required actions have been taken by the company".

FT noted that "people close to the company said losing business partners from one of their flagship state-backed international ventures had probably forced the ruling family to act."

Sulayem played a pivotal role in building DP World into a global operator spanning 83 countries, operating the Middle East's largest port at Jebel Ali, the London Gateway in the United Kingdom, logistics sites across the U.S., and facilities throughout Africa.

Which corporate executive is next? Better yet, which government official?

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 10:00

Watch: Unhinged Woman Tries To Burn Down Rumored ICE Building

Zero Hedge -

Watch: Unhinged Woman Tries To Burn Down Rumored ICE Building

The dramatic rise in left-wing chaos has been remarkable over the past year.

From radical left militant groups firebombing Tesla showrooms, to the protest-industrial complex funded by activist nonprofits unleashing chaos on city streets, to the rise of militant transtifa - even the deep-state publication The Atlantic had to acknowledge the "rise of left-wing terrorism."

This week, a video showing what appears to be an unhinged white liberal attempting to burn what she believed was an ICE warehouse went viral on X on Thursday.

"A woman tried to set a fire at a South Kansas City warehouse that had been rumored to be a possible ICE detention center. Earlier today, the company that owns the property confirmed it is no longer moving forward with a sale to the U.S. government," Kansas City KMBC News wrote on X late Thursday.

KMBC provided further details on the Kansas City warehouse, reporting that the property's owner, Platform Ventures, announced it will not move forward with the sale to the U.S. government.

In recent weeks, there have been reports that ICE is buying warehouses nationwide to boost deportation operations for criminal illegal aliens.

Related:

Returning to the individual who tried to burn down a building: we suspect the corporate media would describe the incident as a "mostly peaceful protest."

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 09:25

2nd US Aircraft Carrier Rerouted From Caribbean To Mideast As Iran In Crosshairs

Zero Hedge -

2nd US Aircraft Carrier Rerouted From Caribbean To Mideast As Iran In Crosshairs

Soon on the heels of Netanyahu's meeting with President Trump at the White House this week, the US has quietly ordered its USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, to depart the Caribbean Sea and head to the Middle East, at a moment the White House is weighing possible military action against Iran, NY Times and others are reporting.

The redeployment will give Washington two carrier strike groups in the region, stacking additional warships alongside the already-deployed USS Abraham Lincoln as Trump turns up the pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program as well as ballistic missile arsenal. It's expected to take at least two weeks or more for the Ford to reach its destination off Iran.

USS Gerald R. Ford, via US Navy

Trump had openly discussed the idea of sending a second carrier strike group to the region earlier this week, a clear escalation as indirect US-Iran talks in Oman sputter with no breakthrough, but he's all the while expressed hope that he wouldn't have to use them.

"The ship’s crew was informed of the decision on Thursday, according to four U.S. officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the decision," NY Times reports.

Previously, the Ford had been operating in the Caribbean after its abrupt redeployment from the Mediterranean, as part of the earlier show of force tied to Venezuelan operations - making its rapid retasking toward Iran a stark reversal of routine scheduling for one of America's 11 total carriers available globally.

On this, the NY Time details

The Ford’s warplanes participated in the Jan. 3 attack on Caracas that captured President Nicolás Maduro. The strike group’s current deployment has already been extended once, and its sailors were expecting to come home in early March.

The new delay will further jeopardize the Ford’s scheduled dry dock period in Virginia, where major upgrades and repairs have been planned.

Trump has warned Tehran that failure to cut a deal would be "very traumatic" even as US diplomacy clings to the possibility of a quick agreement.

Trump took the opportunity to repeat a US ultimatum to Tehran early this week: "Either we will make a deal or we will have to do something very tough like last time," he told Axios to kick off the week. The Iranians will no doubt have this ringing in their ears headed into a planned second round of talks next week.

The USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group currently there, just south of Iran, involves dozens of fighter jets, Tomahawk missiles, along with several support warships. 

Trump has still claimed that Iran "wants to make a deal very badly" and is engaging much more seriously than in the past. There are signs that this is accurate, given the latest offer to dilute its enriched uranium in exchange for the lifting of all sanctions.

The US president days ago articulated his view that the June war taught the Iranians a huge lesson: "Last time they didn't believe I would do it," Trump said. "They overplayed their hand."

Meanwhile, two observations from The Economist's Gregg Carlstrom:

1) The lesson from last summer's failed effort at diplomacy is to watch what Trump does, not what he says; his vaguely optimistic statements about negotiations do not reflect reality (and that goes double for Witkoff's).

2) No matter how much Trump beefs up the American military presence in the Middle East, he still lacks the sort of military option he prefers (a quick, decisive "win").

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 08:55

Futures Fall On Friday The 13th As CPI Looms

Zero Hedge -

Futures Fall On Friday The 13th As CPI Looms

US equity futures are lower in a scary start this Friday the 13th, having given up modest overnight gains, as Investors - already on high alert for any further signs of the "AI scare trade" - braced for Friday’s inflation reading and any clues it holds on what happens next for interest rates.  As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down by 0.2%, having flipped between gains and losses after a three-day S&P 500 losing streak and especially Thursday's brutal 1.6% cash-market slump, which DB's Jim Reid described as "Friday 13th coming a day early for risk assets yesterday." In pre-market trading, Mag-7 all names are weaker ahead of the long weekend, but there are some bright spots within Energy / Mats / Fins but, so far, pre-mkt trading does not point to another significant de-risking. Bond yields climb 1-2bps across the curve with the belly underperforming and USD rallying. Commodities are retracing some of yesterday’s losses led by precious metals. Crude oil futures fell on a report that some OPEC+ nations see scope for output hikes. Today’s macro focus is on CPI and if any new AI "Obsolescence" trades emerge. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower (Alphabet -0.7%, Amazon -1.0%, Apple -0.4%, Nvidia -0.3%, Meta -0.8%, Microsoft -0.6%, Tesla -0.8%).

  • Airbnb (ABNB) is up around 4.8% after the travel-booking platform’s first-quarter revenue forecast exceeded the average analyst estimate.
  • Applied Materials (AMAT) is up 11% after the semiconductor capital equipment company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook for adjusted earnings that is above the analyst consensus.
  • DraftKings (DKNG) slides 15% after the sports betting company’s revenue forecast for 2026 missed the average analyst estimate.
  • Dutch Bros (BROS) jumps 13% after the coffee chain reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that surpassed Wall Street estimates.
  • Pinterest (PINS) is down around 20% after the social media company’s first-quarter forecast was weaker than expected.
  • Tri Pointe Homes (TPH) rose 27% after Sumitomo Forestry says it will acquire the company for around $4.28 billion.

In corporate news, Goldman Sachs’ top lawyer, Kathy Ruemmler, is leaving the firm following a cache of Department of Justice documents showing her links with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

The sharp swings this week have highlighted how quickly shifts in sentiment around AI can reverberate far beyond the technology sector. The so-called AI scare trade has seen knee-jerk selloffs in sectors from logistics to software providers amid fear the technology will hurt their businesses.  Meanwhile, investors are watching Friday’s January inflation print to see if it reinforces strong jobs numbers earlier in the week, which prompted traders to curb bets on interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The median forecast predicts a year-over-year increase of 2.5% for the core consumer price index.

“What could help the market is if inflation comes in softer than expected,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Panmure Liberum. “The strong labor market data earlier this week has reduced hopes for rate cuts by the Fed, yet if inflation continues to cool off, we think the Fed might be willing to add more rate cuts in the mix.”

Punishment has turned “brutal” for any stocks perceived to be at risk from AI disruption, according to Joel Kulina, managing director for TMT trading at Wedbush Securities.The worries over AI-fueled disruption underscore a sea change in market sentiment. Enthusiasm for the technology drove the lion’s share of stock market gains over the last few years.  That’s been replaced by concerns that the newest tools released by Google, closely held AI developer Anthropic and a slew of lesser-known startups are already good enough to threaten a wide array of companies, many far outside the umbrella of technology.

“The number one issue for the market: AI has now become a net negative, pressuring equities,” Kulina says. “‘Sell first, ask questions later’ has been the mentality on a day-to-day basis this month. Megacaps remain capital intense, likely leading to less free cash flow and buybacks on one hand, while decimating legacy industries due to fears of severe disruption on the other.” In the latest such episode, Algorhythm Holdings, a former karaoke company turned AI developer with a stock-market value of only $6 million, announced a logistics platform that triggered a 6.6% slide in the Russell 3000 Trucking Index on Thursday.

Volatility, already stirring, may flare up further as traders square off positions to cut risk before the Presidents’ Day holiday on Monday and Lunar New Year holidays in China and several other Asian markets next week. After Wednesday’s surprisingly strong jobs report prompted traders to pare bets on rate cuts by the Fed, inflation data numbers due at 8:30 a.m. ET have added significance. “The CPI tends to run hot in January as businesses often hike prices in the beginning of the year, a phenomenon that statistical adjustments can’t completely strip out,” according to Bloomberg Economics chief economist Anna Wong. She expects headline consumer prices to rise 0.20% month-on-month, slower than the 0.31% increase in December. Remove volatile food and energy prices, and core consumer prices are predicted to rise 0.31% in January, up from 0.24% the previous month.

European stocks extend declines from the prior session. Stoxx 600 down 0.5% technology stocks outperform as a selloff in sectors deemed at risk from artificial intelligence eases, while basic resources lag on reports the Trump administration is planning to scale back some tariffs on steel and aluminum goods. FTSE 100 and the DAX slightly outperforming.Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday: 

  • Safran shares rise as much as 8% to a record high, after the French engine manufacturer improved its guidance for 2026 and lifted its outlook for 2028, expecting a strong civil engines aftermarket and momentum on defense.
  • RELX shares rise as much as 5.9%, the most since April, after BofA Securities said the information and analytics provider is one of its top stocks for this year and that this week’s results shows the recent de-rating is overdone.
  • DataWalk shares surge as much as 7.2%, bucking a broader selloff on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, after the Polish data processing company’s accelerated book-building saw shares priced above Thursday’s closing level.
  • Kalmar shares gain as much as 8.2%, hitting a record high, after releasing its fourth-quarter results and announcing a “major order” from Maher Terminals for 30 hybrid straddle carriers.
  • NatWest shares swing between gains and losses on Friday after the UK lender posted a strong profit beat, currently trading 1.5% down as Shore Capital analysts flag its outlook is yet to take the recently announced deal to buy Evelyn into account.
  • L’Oréal shares drop as much as 7%, the most since October, after the beauty company reported like-for-like sales for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
  • Tomra shares drop as much as 9.3%, the most since October, after the recycler reported fourth quarter revenues below consensus and DNB Carnegie said it sees “muted” collections.
  • SSAB shares slide as much as 8.9%, leading a drop in European miners after the Financial Times reported the Trump administration is planning to scale back some tariffs on steel and aluminum goods, which would ease market disruptions.
  • Norsk Hydro shares fall as much 6.6%, the most since 2023, as analysts called the company’s guidance weak, due to soft pricing and pressure in the aluminum extrusions business.
  • Elkem shares fall as much as 13% in Oslo, the most since July, after the company agreed to sell the majority of its silicones division to Bluestar — a deal in which “many investors might have thought there would be a sale for cash,” Morgan Stanley analysts write.
  • Huhtamaki shares decline as much as 5.5% following the Finnish consumer packaging firm’s fourth-quarter results, which DNB Carnegie noted showed organic sales continuing to decline.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, as the region’s AI-driven rally took a breather after US tech shares tumbled overnight. Shares in Hong Kong led losses ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.5%, snapping five days of gains. Still, the gauge is on track for its best week since September 2024, after hitting fresh records every day this week through Thursday. Equity benchmarks in Japan, South Korea and mainland China also fell. Despite the near-term pullback, Asian stocks have demonstrated resilience against the broad selloff driven by Wall Street’s fears of business disruption caused by artificial intelligence. The region is seeing more foreign demand as investors rotate away from crowded US trades and seek exposure in Asia’s AI supply chain. Equity markets in mainland China and Taiwan will remain shut all of next week, while Hong Kong is closed for three of the days. 

Citigroup is raising the pay of CEO Jane Fraser to $42 million for 2025, making her among the best compensated US banking heads. Clear Street, a Wall Street broker built on cloud computing technology, postponed its IPO after cutting the target by nearly two thirds. And Coinbase Global showed how quickly a cooling crypto market can pressure even one of the industry’s most diversified exchanges. Revenue in the fourth quarter tumbled a more-than-estimated 20% to $1.8 billion as falling token prices drained trading activity across digital assets.

“Today’s pullback looks like a healthy pause within a broader upward trend,” said Tareck Horchani, head of sales trading, prime brokerage at Maybank Securities in Singapore. “Near term, I expect choppier price action driven by global tech sentiment and positioning flows, but the underlying earnings trajectory, especially in semiconductors, and sustained foreign inflows should continue to provide support once liquidity normalizes.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.2%, with yen and the Aussie dollar underperforming. Russia’s central bank cut rates by 50bps versus expectation for a hold.

In rates, treasuries are little changed in early US session, holding most of Thursday’s curve-flattening gains as focus shifts to January US CPI report at 8:30am New York time. Yields remain within 1bp of Thursday’s closing levels, the 10-year near 4.11%, lagging bunds and gilts in the sector by 2bp-3bp. 2s10s spread is near 65bp, about 6bp flatter on the week.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures fell on a report that some OPEC+ nations see scope for output hikes. Gold is steadying short of $5,000/oz.

Friday's US economic calendar slate includes January CPI at 8:30am. No Fed speakers are scheduled

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini -0.2%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
  • Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
  • DAX +0.1%
  • CAC 40 -0.2%
  • 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.12%
  • VIX -0.4 points at 20.47
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1183.57
  • euro -0.1% at $1.1857
  • WTI crude +0.2% at $62.99/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • The US and Taiwan signed a trade deal to cut tariffs and boost access for American products in Asia, including a pledge by Taipei to buy more than $44 billion worth of LNG and crude. BBG
  • Ukraine and Russia peace talks process remain stuck, primarily over territorial concessions and security guarantees. Politico
  • OpenAI told US lawmakers that DeepSeek used unfair methods to extract results from leading rival models to train its next-gen chatbot. BBG
  • The Central Intelligence Agency released a new video on Thursday seeking to capitalize on upheaval at the top of China’s armed forces to recruit potential spies. WSJ
  • Trump is planning to scale back some tariffs on steel and aluminum goods as he battles an affordability crisis that has sapped his approval ratings ahead of November’s midterm elections. FT
  • Bank of Japan policy board member Naoki Tamura floated the possibility that the bank could soon declare that its price target has been achieved, as the nation’s inflation is becoming stickier. WSJ
  • The Pentagon is sending the Navy’s largest and most advanced aircraft carrier to the Middle East, as the U.S. steps up plans for a potential attack on Iran, two U.S. officials said. WSJ
  • Tech and banking trade groups are among others that are urging the Trump administration to not change the federal framework they have been using to safely deploy AI: Axios 

Trade/Tariffs 

  • China and the US held an anti-drug intelligence exchange meeting on February 10th-12th, Xinhua reported; both sides agreed to promote healthy and practical anti-drug cooperation.
  • China's Ministry of Commerce holds a roundtable with German firms; hopes that German companies can increase investment in China.
  • US President Trump plans to roll back tariffs on metal and aluminium goods, according to FT.
  • Japan's Trade Minister Akazawa engaged with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick on US-bound investment initiatives and confirmed progress on talks to launch the USD 550bln investment.
  • Taiwan President Lai said trade deal with US marks a pivotal moment for Taiwan's economy and industries, adds we secured significant benefits for Taiwan's industries and overall economy, and we solidified the Taiwan-US high-tech strategic partnership.
  • US Department of Commerce increases duties on Chinese battery-grade graphite to 160% related to Novonix (NVX).
  • US and Taiwan sign a reciprocal trade agreement with Taiwan to eliminate or reduce 99% of tariff barriers on US goods, while US confirms 15% tariff rate on Taiwanese goods.
  • US and North Macedonia agreed to a trade framework with the US to impose 15% tariff on North Macedonian goods, while North Macedonia is to eliminate all tariffs on US goods.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower as the region took its cue from the losses stateside, where tech underperformed as AI-disruption concerns re-emerged, and logistics/industrials stocks were also pressured after Algorhythm Holdings (RIME) released its AI freight scaling tool. ASX 200 was dragged lower by losses in tech stocks, and as participants also digested earnings releases. Nikkei 225 retreated at the open after recent currency strength and with focus also on earnings reports, including from SoftBank, which returned to profit in Q3 but missed expectations, while its shares were also not helped by its AI exposure. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp suffered alongside the broad downbeat mood in the region, and despite reports that President Trump paused some China tech bans ahead of his summit with Xi in April, while it is also the last trading day in the mainland before the Lunar New Year and Spring Festival holiday closures.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese New Yuan Loans (Jan) 4710B vs. Exp. 5000B (Prev. 910B).
  • Chinese M2 Money Supply YoY (Jan) Y/Y 9% vs. Exp. 8.4% (Prev. 8.5%).
  • Chinese Total Social Financing (Jan) 7220B vs. Exp. 7050B (Prev. 2210B).
  • Chinese Outstanding Loan Growth YoY (Jan) Y/Y 6.1% vs. Exp. 6.2% (Prev. 6.4%).
  • Chinese House Price Index MM (Jan) Y/Y -0.4% (Prev. -0.4%).
  • Chinese House Price Index YoY (Jan) Y/Y -3.1% (Prev. -2.7%).

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) are trading mixed as the end of the week nears. SMI (+0.6%) leads its European peers, closely followed by the AEX (+0.5%). On the other hand, the CAC 40 (-0.2%) is the slight laggard following a mixed bag of earnings coming out of France. European sectors are mixed. Technology (+1.3%) sits comfortably at the top of the pile, followed by Insurance (+0.6%) and Industrial Goods  and Services (+0.5%). Upside in Tech follows on from the earnings by Applied Materials, which posted positive earnings and Q2 forecasts. Sitting at the bottom lies Basic Resources (-1.3%), as miners react to the selloff in metals prices. Consumer Products and Services (-0.7%) is weighed on by L'Oreal (-3.5%) post-earnings.

Top European News

  • UK PM Starmer is set to call for multinational defence initiative to cut costs of rearmament, according to FT

FX

  • DXY is currently trading with very mild gains and trades at the midpoint of a 96.89-97.15 range. Really not much driving things for the index this morning, with traders awaiting the US CPI report later. On that, the headline is expected to rise +0.3% M/M (prev. 0.3%), and core rising at a rate of 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.2%). UBS said easing inflation should keep the Fed on track for rate cuts despite strong jobs data, forecasting two 25bps reductions in June and September, while FOMC projections indicate one additional cut this year. In terms of recent price action, ING notes that there has been a strong inclination to sell USD rallies this week, as such, analysts “struggle to see the dollar recover substantially from here”.
  • G10s are mixed against the USD, with the NZD and CAD holding around the unchanged mark, whilst the CHF, AUD and JPY hold towards the foot of the pile, with the latter the clear underperformer. EUR was little moved by the EZ GDP 2nd estimates and Employment change, which printed more-or-less in-line with expectations.
  • Really not much driving things for the JPY this morning, with the weakness potentially a slight paring of a four-day winning streak seen following PM Takaichi’s landslide victory. Focus has been on Takaichi’s remarks that she will adhere to fiscal responsibility, with attention also on comments via FinMin Katayama, who noted that the foodstuff tax cut could be funded by foreign reserves. On the monetary policy side of things, markets now see the chance of faster BoJ normalisation; on that, BoJ’s Tamura (Hawk) suggested inflation is becoming “sticky”, and flagged the chance of a rate hike “this spring”. On the neutral rate, he suggested that the policy rate is “very distant” from the neutral rate. USD/JPY was little moved by his comments, and currently trades at the upper end of a 152.63-153.66 range.
  • CHF is slightly lower this morning, in the aftermath of the region’s inflation data; the Y/Y metric printed in-line with the consensus, whilst the M/M metric was a touch below the prior and surprisingly fell into negative territory. The CHF initially weakened on the report, before scaling back much of the pressure thereafter. It is worth reminding that SNB’s Schlegel suggested that the Bank is willing “look through negative months of inflation”, adding that the bar to negative rates is high.

Central Banks

  • Fed's Miran (voter) said some of the concern he has on labour markets is a little less than he had before, adds a range of policies are pushing out the supply of the economy and will increase economic growth in a non-inflationary way. said:. Fed is one of the biggest risks to growth. Monetary policy has passively tightened. We may be underestimating how restrictive monetary policy actually is.
  • BoJ's Tamura said he feels Japan's recent inflation is becoming sticky and reiterates will keep raising rates if outlook is met, adds we may be able to judge that BoJ's price goal has been achieved as early as this spring. Added that even if the BoJ raises the policy rate further, monetary conditions will remain accommodative.
  • Japan's PM Takaichi is to meet with BoJ Governor Ueda on February 16th at 17:00JST / 08:00GMT.
  • Japanese PM Takaichi's advisor Honda suggests the BoJ may consider raising interest rates later this year, but noted the unlikelihood of a hike in March.
  • ECB's Kazaks said the ECB has yet to see full impact of EUR appreciation; he worries strong EUR reflects dollar weakness; said now is not the time for ECB to move interest rates; said ECB officials are on monitoring mode on EUR strength.
  • PBoC's new emphasis on overnight money market rate has reportedly sparked speculation it could become the main policy target.
  • Riksbank's Jansson said January inflation confirmed the picture of downside risks to inflation. Figures for GDP and consumption have been a little weaker recently.
  • Russian Federation Interest Rate Decision 15.50% vs. Exp. 16% (Prev. 16.00%).

Fixed Income

  • Another contained start for fixed income into US CPI and before Monday's US holiday, which coincides with the Chinese New Year holiday period.
  • USTs on the backfoot, but only marginally, going into US CPI to round off a packed week of data. Currently, at the low-end of a 112-21 to 112-28 band, and while in the red as it stands, the upper-end of that band is a new marginal WTD peak.
  • Bunds are also contained, though the benchmark finds itself firmer by a handful of ticks, but off best in 128.93 to 129.12 confines. The firmer APAC bias came from gains towards the end of the European day after German Chancellor Merz said he is not in favour of joint eurobonds, in addition to the read-across from a strong US 30yr auction.
  • Gilts opened higher by nine ticks, catching up to the strength seen on that US auction. Since, the benchmark has retreated into the red with losses of c. five ticks in 91.34 to 91.51 parameters. Ahead of US CPI today but, more pertinently for the UK, next week's packed data docket that will likely determine if the BoE cuts in April as markets currently forecast, or if March comes into consideration.
  • JGBs came under pressure to a 131.52 low after BoJ's Tamura said even if they tighten, monetary conditions will remain accommodative.
  • Japan sold JPY 649.5bln in 10yr, 20yr and 30yr JGBs in enhanced liquidity auction; b/c 2.95 vs. Prev. 2.58. Highest accepted spread -0.014% vs. Prev. +0.018%. Allotment of bids at highest spread 2.5490% vs. Prev. 86.2119%.
  • PBoC is to issue CNY 30bln in 3-month and 1-year bills in Hong Kong.
  • Australia sold AUD 1bln 2.50% May 2034 bonds, b/c 3.44, avg. yield 4.2898%.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks are trading relatively flat following yesterday’s slump after dollar strength and weak risk sentiment, sparked by AI disruption woes. Adding to further downside pressure were comments from US President Trump yesterday evening that the US must make a deal with Iran and that they could reach a deal over the next month. Not much in terms of fresh catalysts thus far in the European session, as traders await US CPI. WTI and Brent are trading at the lower end range of USD 62.54-63.17/bbl and USD 67.22-67.89/bbl, respectively.
  • Precious metals are rebounding after yesterday’s decline, which was driven by a stronger US dollar following strong jobs data surpassing market expectation. There is no fresh catalyst behind today’s recovery, though some analysts attribute the move to dip-buying after the recent sell-off. Spot gold is currently trading near the upper end of USD 4,885.89–4,997.53/oz range, while silver is holding at the upper range of USD 73.745–79.085/oz.
  • Copper trades slightly lower triggered by downbeat sentiment in Wall Street and APAC, although Europe fares somewhat better. The red metal trades at the lower end range of 12,800-13,021/t. Other relevant news in the metal space includes the Shanghai Weekly updating their Warehouse changes before the Chinese holiday: Copper +9.47%, Nickel +2.29%, Aluminium +21.3%.
  • Indonesia's Mining Minister said we are studying a plan to ban exports on a number of raw materials next year, which includes tin.
  • India's Reliance has reportedly been awarded general authorisation from the US to buy Venezuelan Oil.
  • Three people reportedly burnt at Exxon's (XOM) Beaumont facility.
  • Shanghai Weekly Warehouse Changes: Copper +9.47%, Nickel +2.29%, Aluminium +21.3%.
  • ANZ revises gold price forecast, now sees gold hitting USD 5,800/oz in Q2 vs. previous forecast of USD 5,400/oz.
  • Qatar hikes April term price for Al Shaheen oil to USD 0.87/bbl over Dubai quotes, according sources.
  • Shenzhen financial regulator issues public notice to further standardise gold market operations.

Trade/Tariffs

  • China and the US held an anti-drug intelligence exchange meeting on February 10th-12th, Xinhua reported; both sides agreed to promote healthy and practical anti-drug cooperation.
  • China's Ministry of Commerce holds a roundtable with German firms; hopes that German companies can increase investment in China.
  • US President Trump plans to roll back tariffs on metal and aluminium goods, according to FT.
  • Japan's Trade Minister Akazawa engaged with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick on US-bound investment initiatives and confirmed progress on talks to launch the USD 550bln investment.
  • Taiwan President Lai said trade deal with US marks a pivotal moment for Taiwan's economy and industries, adds we secured significant benefits for Taiwan's industries and overall economy, and we solidified the Taiwan-US high-tech strategic partnership.
  • US Department of Commerce increases duties on Chinese battery-grade graphite to 160% related to Novonix (NVX).
  • US and Taiwan sign a reciprocal trade agreement with Taiwan to eliminate or reduce 99% of tariff barriers on US goods, while US confirms 15% tariff rate on Taiwanese goods.
  • US and North Macedonia agreed to a trade framework with the US to impose 15% tariff on North Macedonian goods, while North Macedonia is to eliminate all tariffs on US goods.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Russia's Kremlin said that new round of peace talks with Ukraine will take place next week; adds that its unlikely that discussions will move beyond talks before the conflict in Ukraine is settled.
  • US, Russia and Ukraine are planning to meet again next week, possibly in Miami or Abu Dhabi, POLITICO reported.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • US aircraft carrier U.S.S Gerald R. Ford will be sent to the Middle East from Venezuela, according to officials cited by NYT.

Geopolitics: Other

  • Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said Russia will provide Cuba with material assistance, TASS reported.
  • Russia's Kremlin said they did not decide to stop using the dollar but that the US imposed restrictions, dollar will have to compete with other currencies if the US lifts restrictions.
  • Japan seizes a Chinese fishing boat off the Nagasaki coast, according to Japanese press.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30 am: United States Jan CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30 am: United States Jan Core CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30 am: United States Jan CPI YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.7%
  • 8:30 am: United States Jan Core CPI YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.6%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Friday 13th came a day early for risk assets yesterday and although the sell-off is continuing this morning in Asia, US futures are more stable as I type. It’s perhaps indicative of the state of markets at the moment that a $6 million market cap company that until recently specialised in Karaoke helped wipe tens of billions off logistics stocks to add to the weakness. I've seen some shocking Karaoke performances in my time but this perhaps tops them all. Overall the S&P 500 (-1.57%) slid to a third consecutive decline. Once again, software stocks in the index were one of the worst hit, falling -1.49%, but it was a rough day for tech in general, with the Magnificent 7 (-2.24%) and the NASDAQ (-2.03%) both losing significant ground. Matters weren’t helped by some weaker US data, which added to the risk-off tone, leading to clear signs of financial stress across several asset classes. Indeed, Bitcoin (-2.92%) fell for a 4th consecutive session, credit spreads widened on both sides of the Atlantic, and silver (-10.67%) posted another sharp decline.

Tech stocks were in the driving seat of yesterday’s selloff, although unlike some sessions recently, the move was a broad-based one as investors reckoned with the AI-led disruption of various industries. In terms of the movers, Cisco Systems (-12.32%) was one of the worst performers, posting its worst daily performance since 2022 as investors reacted to its latest earnings. On some days, that would make the worst performer in the entire S&P, but there were 7 companies that saw a double-digit decline yesterday, which just shows the adjustment taking place. One of those double-digit declines was CH Robinson Worldwide (-14.54%), as global logistic companies were the latest industry to see artificial intelligence concerns as a very small AI logistics company called Algorhythm Holdings (formerly a Karaoke company) said its SemiCab platform helped customers scale freight volumes by 300% to 400% without a corresponding increase in headcount. The Russell 3000 trucking index fell -6.64% as companies of all size reacted to the news.

Old fears were rekindled within commercial real estate as well as CBRE (-8.84%), a commercial real estate company, saw large losses for a second day following comments from their CEO saying “If there are less office workers in the long run as a result of AI, there will be less demand for office space. That would be a long-term trend to unfold.” So, the market continues to price in further AI disruption across industries, sometimes in the most abstract way.

S&P Financials (-1.99%) also saw a sharp decline, as the KBW Bank Index (-3.21%) posted its worst performance since October. And there were signs of the selloff broadening out, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 (-1.31%) falling back from its record high the previous day, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.49%) also fell back from Wednesday’s record. European credit markets were relatively steady as EUR IG was unchanged at 75bps, while EUR HY spreads were just 1bp wider to 264bps. USD IG spreads were 2bps wider to 77bps and USD HY spreads moved 12bps wider to 275bps.

Looking forward, attention will today turn to the US CPI print for January, which is a couple of days later than expected because of the partial government shutdown. This is an important one, because markets are still expecting further rate cuts under a new Fed Chair, but stronger data like the jobs report on Wednesday has led to a bit more doubt as to whether that’s still possible. So another hawkish print today would further push in that direction, particularly given this quarter is already seeing a decent fiscal impulse from the Trump tax cuts.
In terms of what to expect, our US economists forecast that monthly headline CPI would be at +0.26% in January, down from +0.31% in December. And if realised, that would take the year-on-year CPI rate down to +2.5%. However, they think that headline inflation would be weighed down by a -2.4% decline in motor fuel prices, meaning that core CPI should be relatively strong at +0.35% on the month.

Otherwise, they’re keeping an eye on tariff-related strength in core goods, as they expect a continued impact in categories like household furnishings and supplies, as well as apparel. For more details, click here for their preview and to register for their subsequent webinar.  
Ahead of that release, Treasury yields fell across the curve, driven by the wider risk-off move as well as some weaker US data. For instance, the weekly initial jobless claims were a bit higher than expected, coming in at 227k in the week ending February 7 (vs. 223k expected). Meanwhile, existing home sales were down to an annualised rate of 3.91m in January (vs. 4.15m expected). So that further dampened sentiment, and expectations for Fed rate cuts this year moved back up again. For instance, the amount of cuts priced in by the December meeting was up +5.3bps on the day to 53bps. And in turn, yields on 2yr Treasuries (-5.4bps) fell back to 3.456%, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (-7.4bps) fell to 4.098%. Yields have moved back up +1 to +1.5bps across the curve this morning.

Oil prices had already been moving lower along with other risk assets, but the selloff gained momentum amid a bevy of headlines that pointed to greater supply. Brent crude futures closed -2.71% lower on the day, finishing at $67.52/bbl. First, there were comments from US Energy Secretary Wright that China had bought crude from the US that was previously purchased from Venezuela. This was followed by comments later in the day from Interior Secretary Burgum, who said during an event in Washington that the US would be selling Venezuelan oil to China at global market price levels. Bloomberg reported that Venezuelan officials are set to grant more oil permits to Chevron and Repsol, adding credence to the potential for further supply in the medium term. Staying with the US, President Trump reiterated his preference to “reach a deal” with Iran and said that it could come together “over the next month, something like that.” Additionally, there was reporting from Bloomberg that showed Russia had included returning to the dollar settlement system as part of a greater re-framing of the US-Russia economic relationship.

Staying in commodities, gold saw a sharp sell-off of their own despite its traditional haven status. The story of Russia returning to the dollar payment system probably contributed. Gold prices fell -3.19% to $4922/oz, while silver (-10.67%) and copper (-3.02%) also saw outsized moves. As noted above there was more crypto weakness as bitcoin fell -2.92% and is under 5% away from last week’s lows, which was the lowest level since October 2024.

Earlier in Europe, the main highlight yesterday was the EU leaders summit in Belgium. At the summit, EU leaders sought to move forward with reforms to bolster Europe’s economy and improve regional coordination. There were many proposals with various champions. French President Macron pushed a “Buy European” agenda, which remains on the table as European Council president Costa said, “ I feel that there is a broad agreement on the need to use (European preference) in the selected strategic sectors, in the proportional and targeted way.” German Chancellor Merz and Italian PM Meloni called for greater deregulation, with PM Meloni saying that the EU “ cannot continue to hyperregulate…there's no time to lose.” On the matter of greater joint debt,  most leaders were calling for greater stimulus, however Merz seemed unmoved saying, “We have taken on European debt in exceptional situations -- but those were exceptional situations…We have to make do with the money we have."

Across the Channel, UK gilts outperformed after the latest UK GDP print came in softer than expected. It showed Q4 GDP up by +0.1% (vs. +0.2% expected), which left annual GDP growth for 2025 at +1.3%. So with the downside surprise in the Q4 number, investors priced in more rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, and the 2yr gilt yield (-2.1bps) fell to just 3.60%, its lowest level since August 2024, whilst the 10yr gilt yield (-2.4bps) fell to 4.45%. And elsewhere in Europe, there was a smaller decline that left yields on 10yr bunds (-1.3bps), OATs (-1.5bps) and BTPs (-1.3bps) lower as well.

In Asia, the AI related sell-off continues, albeit after a strong week in the region. The Hang Seng (-2.10%) stands out as the largest underperformer, with the CSI (-0.92%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.85%) also lower. The Nikkei (-1.22%) is also weak but its gains so far this week are close to +5.5% post the election results. Elsewhere the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.37%) is also lower after a firmer week with the KOSPI (-0.23%) outperforming.  S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are down jus over a tenth of a percent with European ones back up a similar amount. As we go to print the FT is reporting that the US is planning to roll back some steel and aluminium tariffs that nods to our view that the tariffs headlines this year, whilst very noisy, will likely lean in a dovish direction ahead of mid-terms where the cost of living issue is likely to be decisive.

Early morning data revealed that China’s new home prices continued their decline in January, reflecting weak demand that is likely to further burden the country’s financially constrained developers. Prices decreased by -0.4% month-on-month, matching the decline observed in the previous month.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the US CPI print for January, and the second estimate of Euro Area GDP for Q4. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the BoE’s Pill.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 08:29

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