Trump Considers Privatizing US Postal Service That Lost $9.5 Billion In FY2024

Donald Trump is fired up about finally giving the money-losing US Postal Service its long-overdue shove into the private sector, according to three sources who talked to the Washington Post. 

Trump is said to have discussed the idea with Howard Lutnick, who's co-chairing his transition team and who's been tapped to serve as Commerce secretary in the new administration. He also held a meeting with various transition officials to exchange thoughts on privatization of the huge organization. Separately, the Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, has held its own discussions about drastic action. 

After watching generation after generation pour taxpayer dollars into the rolling dumpster fire that is the USPS, Trump wants to finally make it someone else's problem (KJAS.com via Beech Grove Fire Department)

Last month, USPS disclosed that it posted a net loss of $9.5 billion for the 2024 fiscal year -- a loss that was 46% worse than the service's $6.5 billion deficit in 2023. The plunge came alongside a slight uptick in revenue enabled by the latest annual increase in postage rates, pursuant to the 2021 Delivering for America plan. That program was supposed to help the perennially-profitless behemoth "achieve financial sustainability and service excellence." The service also has a crummy balance sheet, with nearly $80 billion in liabilities. 

The USPS "profit" in 2022 was a mirage resulting from the repeal of a requirement to prepay future retiree health benefits, and the cancellation of past-due prefunding obligations (chart via Washington Post)

After reviewing the numbers, Trump stated his opinion that the Postal Service shouldn't be subsidized by the government, the Post's sources said. Casey Mulligan, a University of Chicago economics professor who served on Trump's Council of Economic Advisers, tells the Post it's time for a major change:  

“The government is slow, slow, slow — decades slow on adopting new ways of doing things, and there’s a lot of [other] carrier services that became legal in the ’70s that are doing things so much better with increased volumes and reduced costs. We didn’t finish the job in the first term, but we should finish it now.”

USPS recorded a 40.7% year-over-year decline in priority mail volume during the third quarter of the 2024 fiscal year

The Postal Service is politically powerful -- starting with its raw headcount: While you may not guess it given the long lines that typify a visit to a post office, USPS has a staggering 650,000 employees, who become  very active whenever privatization gains momentum. It's also popular among Americans -- 72% view it favorably, compared just 21% who view it unfavorably, according to a 2024 Pew Research poll. 

Meanwhile, though a belief in small government is supposedly a GOP cornerstone, the postal service is particularly valued by people living in rural, Republican districts. Earlier this month, Missouri Republican Sen. Josh Hawley angrily confronted Postmaster General Louis DeJoy over a plan to save costs by slowing delivery for some mail, something that would affect rural areas more than urban ones. "I hate this plan and I’m going to do everything I can to kill it,” said Hawley in a Senate hearing.   

USPS workers held a preemptive Pittsburgh protest in 2018 to ward off a potential privatization move by Trump's first administration (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

In addition to having GOP control of the Senate and the House in the next legislature, Trump is positioned to fill three vacancies on the Postal Service's 11-member board. (Biden has submitted nominees, but you can expect the Senate to ignore them through Jan 20.) Of the incumbents, three are Republicans, with two of them appointed by Trump in his first term. 

Even if privatization doesn't happen, Trump's mere threat of pursuing it could help drive changes to the organization. As the Lexington Institute's Paul Steilder tells the Post... 

“At the end of the day, the Postal Service is going to need money, it’s going to need assistance, or it’s going to have to come up with some radical, draconian measures to break even in the near term. That gives both the White House and Congress an awful lot of power and an awful lot of leeway here.”

Sound good on paper...but, as evidenced by the "profit"-and-loss chart above, Congress has long shown a lack of urgency about seeing the USPS "break even in the near term." Even with a president who's fired about it -- for now -- we're not convinced it will be any different this time. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 20:25

This Week's Fed Meeting Is Barely On The Radar Screen

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

It is unusual to say that I don’t really care that much about the FOMC meeting, but I don’t. Everything seems incredibly well telegraphed coming into this meeting.

• Markets are pricing in a 93% chance of a 25 bp cut. We will get it.
• Markets are pricing in an 87% chance of no cut in January. We won’t get a cut.

The Fed tends not to deviate that much from market expectations, and the next two meetings appear pretty cut and dry right now, without some unforeseen large data (or geopolitical) surprises.

The hawkish sentiment expected is appropriate:

• The only real weakness in the jobs data recently has been in the often (and rightfully) maligned Household Survey. The margin for error in the Establishment Survey is big enough to drive a truck through it, and the Household Survey margin for error would let you drive a tanker ship (while blindfolded in rough seas) through it. The two surveys often deviate, significantly and over extended periods of time, but if we get any “normalization” we should see unemployment rates decrease in the coming months.
• Inflation is proving to be sticky. As companies purchase inventory ahead of potential tariffs, we will see inflation remain sticky. Many investors and business owners are seeing the surge in NFIB Small Business Optimism (as one concrete example) and we are likely to see people prepare for that growth, which should keep prices elevated.
• Seasonality. We have argued that the seasonal adjustments have been off for two main reasons:
  • Shifting demographics. Basically, any upward adjustment for construction in the winter to account for Northeast slowdowns is erroneous now that the bulk of construction has shifted away from that region.
  • Including COVID-era data. The timing of COVID lockdowns and re-openings has been included in the data and tends to create adjustments that overstate the strength of the economy in the winter and understate it in the summer.
• So seasonal adjustments should contribute to (artificially) higher inflation and jobs data in the coming months. It won’t be as impactful as last year, or the year before, but it will be a factor and will “manufacture” or “create” data that keeps the Fed on the sidelines.

Even the Neutral Rate seems to have settled into around 3.75% towards the end of 2025, which is hard to argue with (I think it should be 4%, but that would be quibbling since we had the move from 2.875% over the past few months). Nothing the Fed says at this presser is likely to move the needle on the neutral rate, since I think they had every intention of getting the market to price it higher, and they have been successful.

Drones are the 1st Thing I Search For (mostly on X and news sources, not the skies)

Drones, especially the ones that have been over New Jersey for weeks (but are apparently being seen elsewhere), have become fascinating. Even President-elect Trump tweeted about them (though I’d be shocked if he hasn’t been briefed, or at least had the opportunity to be briefed).

It is fascinating and makes me think a lot about Twilight Zone episodes (just in time for hopefully some Twilight Zone marathons during the holidays).

Academy’s Geopolitical Intelligence Group has been discussing them, but so far, nothing conclusive is emerging, which again adds to the “Twilight Zone nature” of this drone phenomenon.

As we get info that can be shared (and we have a high degree of faith in its accuracy), I’m sure we will send out a SITREP, but in the meantime, everyone is left speculating. However, while the rough consensus is that these are almost certainly ours, we aren’t really sure why the details aren’t being released (especially when there is so much curiosity).

Some Trump 1.5 Pleasant “Surprises”

Two things struck me as very interesting in the past week. I would say “out of character,” but they aren’t really out of character once you think about them.

Inviting Xi to the inauguration. Given all the rhetoric about China, unfair practices, tariffs, etc., it was easy to be surprised by this invitation. But that’s only because “we” forgot to account for how much Trump believes he can influence people in personal meetings. It is very interesting, though in the back of my mind, this time seems “different.” According to a few of our GIG members, he feels strongly that Xi failed to live up to promises on the purchases of certain agricultural products.

Getting rid of Daylight-Saving Time. I don’t think it was a campaign promise, but who doesn’t agree with the idea of keeping it lighter later in the day? Let’s remember not to forget that Trump wants people to like him, so why wouldn’t he embrace something that very few people would seem to disagree with (and I really can’t think of the reasons to disagree with this).
In the meantime, while President Biden is still the president and making headlines of his own, it is pretty clear that wherever possible, people have moved on to positioning themselves for the new Trump administration. Hence our use of the term – “Trump 1.5.”

I still expect some “chaos” as Trump thrives (or believes he thrives) in chaotic environments and things seem to be a little too complacent right now.

How High Can Yields Go?

While I don’t care that much about this week’s FOMC, I do care a lot about where longer dated yields are headed.

• I haven’t liked how the moves to higher yields have generally been unidirectional (if that is a word). Despite all the positive messaging from DOGE, there is renewed concern about the path of the deficit.
• I did enjoy Treasury Secretary Yellen expressing “regret” that they didn’t do more to contain the deficit, since it wasn’t very apparent that any time was spent on trying to control the deficit. Until the voters make it clear that the deficit scares them (and I don’t really think that was part of the message that voters sent at this election), both sides will continue to spend, because it generally helps them.
• If we are correct on inflation, jobs, and seasonal effects, there are some more problems out there for the rates market. We thought 4.4% and higher in the aftermath of the election was overdone and highly susceptible to a short squeeze. I don’t see that right now (and we haven’t seen it since it was at 4.2%). If anything, while we have been steadfast that the risk of a gap higher of 50 bps is far more likely than a similar gap to lower yields, we must take our range up to the 4.4% to 4.6% area on 10s.

Bearish the longer end of the yield curve (10s through 30s), though we will see how the market responds here to what seems like resistance.

Refine Baby Refine

While guest hosting on Bloomberg TV Tuesday morning (link), I was able to ask Ellen Wald (an energy expert) about not just “drill baby drill,” but also about refining (starts at the 36:25 mark).

Her response fit perfectly into a couple of our themes:

• We need to not just focus on the extraction of commodities, but also on the processing!
  • She did say that “Refine Baby Refine” would be a more important goal for the U.S. (citing that under 20% of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve can be refined in the United States).
• Challenging NIMBY (not in my backyard) and reviewing regulations that were put in place when we were the sole superpower (economically and militarily) and the world seemed to be on course for further globalization, rather than deglobalization with a series of hot wars!

I think that betting on infrastructure and anything critical that we are required to extract from the earth (and process), especially in areas of importance to the nation’s ability to be independent of foreign suppliers, will do very well in the coming year. Yes, the stock market is all about a handful of stocks again, but we think that this thesis will be our biggest recommendation to start the new year.

Crypto

We spent time on this in last weekend’s The Genius of Mariah Carey, but I think I have underestimated how much higher this can all go.

• The donations were so big and so one-sided that they definitely contributed significantly to the win. That is unlikely to be ignored. The wealth being created in the crypto space allows for even bigger donations going forward. I had thought about that, but was convinced by one of our advisory board members that I was heavily underestimating the power that this donation base currently provides to the administration. It does seem a bit like a Twilight Zone episode, but it is a convincing argument (and the administration is filled with crypto advocates).
• Trump can control it. We’ve argued that Trump likes things that he can “control” and if his goal is to have it go higher (and that appears to be his goal) then he certainly can do a lot to make it go higher. He can probably do a lot more to move the price of Bitcoin significantly (in a direction of his choosing) than he can with the dollar! While I think over time he won’t have that connection, I’m probably wrong that the timing is any time soon.

Not sure I can make myself buy up here. Virtually every historical use case has failed, except that now the “limited supply” theme seems to be helping it rise. I have to admit, the “digital gold” rebranding is also interesting as advocates beg big governments to adopt it as a reserve asset.

Maybe I can convince myself to add some ETH to the portfolio? Logically I struggle with the value proposition, but this market has always been about flow and adoption, and it seems to be on their side right now.

Bottom Line

The FOMC will be boring, but that won’t stop 10-year yields from rising further.

Stocks have had almost no breadth, we’ve seen some valuations hit extreme levels, and we just had the Nasdaq 100 rebalancing announced, etc., but it is difficult to fight especially when a major player in the chip industry can still surprise the market to the point that it had a record setting rise (for them) which was big enough to drag that entire sector of the market higher. As a contrarian, it is difficult to judge sentiment and positioning when so many people seem checked out, so keep looking for some trading ranges, and wait for a real “consensus” type of trade as we near the new year. I think (officially) the Santa rally starts this week.

I will “refine” the “refine baby refine” viewpoint as I do think that could be the best risk/reward theme out there, if we can identify it properly.

Credit, boring. I cannot say that I like it here and now, but spreads still seem unlikely to do much. I will stick to my argument that I do NOT like credit on an all-in yield basis, and investors should still be reducing their yield exposure, while corporations should take advantage of the ongoing window to issue more!

Crypto, feels like another pump and dump, but this pump seems like it could have a lot more legs to it.

Have a great week, and we can only hope that we find out what all these drones are up to sooner rather than later as, to quote Rod Serling: “So, if you’re ever feeling like you’ve entered a strange new world, just remember, you might have crossed into….the Twilight Zone.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 19:50

Bird Or Drone? Mystery Behind What Struck AAL Flight 1722 During Departure From NYC

An American Airlines flight departing from LaGuardia and bound for Charlotte, North Carolina, was forced to make an emergency landing at John F. Kennedy International Airport on Thursday night after what authorities described as a "bird strike" that caused an engine fire. However, given the ongoing mystery of drone sightings in the New Jersey-New York City airspace, one can't help but wonder...

American Airlines flight AAL1722 departed LaGuardia on Thursday night en route to Charlotte and suffered what authorities said was a bird strike on departure. A spokesperson for the airline said none of the 190 passengers or six crew members were hurt during the incident. 

According to NBC New York, the plane landed without incident at JFK minutes later. 

A verified video of the incident from a passenger's smartphone shows the moment an object was sucked into one of the plane's jet engines. 

NBC New York cited a statement from the Federal Aviation Administration that explained the object was, in fact, a "bird." 

However, not everyone was convinced. 

REPORT: COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT HITS DRONE?
American Airlines Flight 1722 From LaGuardia, New York Thursdat Night To Charlotte Reportedly Suffered A "Bird Strike" Causing Emgine Damage.
The Flight Made Emergency Landing.
Freeze Frames Appear To Show A POSSIBLE DRONE, Not A Bird. pic.twitter.com/ukKBchfFNW

— John Basham (@JohnBasham) December 14, 2024

Meteorologist John Basham wrote on X, "Freeze Frames Appear To Show A POSSIBLE DRONE, Not A Bird." 

Hmm.

Yep!

— John Basham (@JohnBasham) December 14, 2024

"Looks Too Big To Be A Bird. I'd Love For @AmericanAir To Post Images Of The Damage To The Engine. If There Was A Bird Strike, I'd Expect To See Biological Remnants," Basham pointed out.

Looks Too Big To Be A Bird.
I'd Love For @AmericanAir To Post Images Of The Damage To The Engine.
If There Was A Bird Strike, I'd Expect To See Biological Remnants.

— John Basham (@JohnBasham) December 14, 2024

Thursday night's incident comes amid exploding mass hysteria surrounding drone sightings in the area. Some speculate the drones may be part of the government's nuclear drone sniffer taskforce, while others suggest it could be a psyop.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 19:15

Abu Mohammad al-Julani: Putting Lipstick On A Pig

Via The Cradle

Just in time for the Al-Qaeda offshoot Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) lightning conquest of Syria, a western PR campaign was launched to rebrand the terror group’s leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani. 

The BBC assured their readers that Julani, now commonly referred to as Ahmed al-Sharaa – which is his real name – had "reinvented himself," while the Telegraph insisted that the former deputy to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is now "diversity friendly."

On December 6, just days before entering the capital Damascus, Julani sat down with CNN journalist Jomana Karadsheh for an exclusive interview to explain his past.

"Julani says he has gone through episodes of transformation through the years," CNN wrote, after he assured Karadsheh "no one has the right to eliminate” Syria’s Alawites, Christians, and Druze."

But why was Julani so eager to convince the American public that he had no plans to exterminate Syria’s religious minorities? This question looms larger when recalling the massacre of 190 Alawites in Latakia on August 4, 2013, and the taking of hundreds more as captives. 

Back then, militants from HTS (then the Nusra Front), ISIS, and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) attacked 10 villages, slaughtering civilians in ways documented by Human Rights Watch: gunshot wounds, stabbings, decapitations, and charred remains. "Some corpses were found in a state of complete charring, and others had their feet tied," the report stated.

Another useful US asset 

Fast forward to recent years, and Julani’s “transformation” seems less about repentance and more about utility. Despite HTS remaining on the US terror list – and an American bounty of $10 million reserved for Julani himself – former US special envoy to Syria, James Jeffrey, described the group as a strategic “asset” for US operations in Syria. 

Under the guise of countering extremism, Washington pursued a dual strategy: enforcing crushing economic sanctions on Syria – of the sort that killed 500,000 Iraqi children in the 1990s –  while ensuring its wheat-abundant and oil-rich regions remain under US control. 

Ambassador Jeffrey admitted to PBS in March 2021 that Julani’s HTS was the “least bad option of the various options on Idlib, and Idlib is one of the most important places in Syria, which is one of the most important places right now in the Middle East.”

But how did Julani ascend to power in Idlib? His Nusra Front spearheaded the 2015 conquest under the banner of Jaish al-Fatah (the Army of Conquest), a coalition that combined Nusra suicide bombers with Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters equipped with CIA-supplied TOW missiles. Foreign Policy hailed the campaign’s swift progress, crediting this synergy of jihadists and western arms.

Years later, US official Brett McGurk would label Idlib “the largest Al-Qaeda safe haven since 9/11.” Yet, the crucial role of US weapons and strategic aid in this outcome went unmentioned. 

Assistance from Tel Aviv and Brussels too 

This assistance extended beyond arms: the Financial Times (FT) reported that in response, EU foreign ministers “lifted an oil embargo against Syria to allow rebels to sell crude to fund their operation.” 

While the FSA claimed control of the oil fields, activists openly acknowledged that the Nusra Front was the true beneficiary, trucking barrels to Turkiye for refining or export to Europe. The arrangement netted Nusra millions before ISIS seized the fields a year later.

Academic and Syria expert Joshua Landis noted the importance of controlling the oil fields, explaining that “Whoever gets their hands on the oil, water, and agriculture holds Sunni Syria by the throat” and that “the logical conclusion from this craziness is that Europe will be funding Al-Qaeda.”

Behind the scenes, western and regional powers facilitated Julani’s ascent. Israeli airstrikes supported Nusra during clashes with Syrian forces, while outgoing Israeli Army Chief Gadi Eisenkot admitted to supplying “light weapons” to rebel groups – essentially acknowledging what the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) had been reporting for years to “discredit the rebels as stooges of the Zionists.”

Previous reports in the Wall Street Journal showed that Israel had for years provided humanitarian and medical aid to “rebels” in southern Syria, including by bringing Nusra fighters across the border into Israel for treatment. 

In an interview with The American Conservative in border village Beit Jinn, militants revealed that Israel had been paying salaries – to the tune of $200,000 per month – for the entire year before HTS troops were expelled from the area by the SAA and fled to Idlib.

Meanwhile, the US oversaw a “cataract of weaponry” to Syria’s opposition, as described by the New York Times. Though publicly earmarked for the FSA, these arms frequently ended up in Nusra’s hands.

Julani’s meteoric rise began years earlier, seeded by his ties to Al-Qaeda in Iraq and its Jordanian leader, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. The latter, whose activities conveniently justified the US invasion of Iraq, operated with tacit US acknowledgment. 

pic.twitter.com/HePk8igzKa

— Narragonia4 (@Laellenkoenig) December 11, 2024

Julani followed a similar trajectory, emerging as a key player in the Nusra Front, which conducted bombings in Damascus and other cities in 2011 and 2012, with attacks initially misattributed to the Syrian government.

A salafist principality

Why did the EU choose to “fund Al-Qaeda” by dropping oil sanctions? Why did the US provide a “cataract of weaponry” to Nusra?

An August 2012 Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report revealed that the US and its regional allies supported the establishment of a “Salafist principality” in eastern Syria and western Iraq as part of the effort to depose president Bashar al-Assad and divide the country.

The DIA report said a radical religious mini-state exactly of the sort later established by ISIS as its “caliphate” was the US goal, even while admitting that the so-called Syrian revolution seeking to topple Assad’s government was being driven by “Salafists, the Muslim Brotherhood, and al-Qaeda.”

The seeds of the Salafist principality were planted when late ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi dispatched Julani to Syria in August 2011 – at that time, Baghdadi’s group was known as the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI).

Prominent Lebanese journalist Radwan Mortada, who was embedded with Al-Qaeda fighters from Lebanon in Syria, met Julani in the central Syrian city of Homs at this time. Mortada informs The Cradle that Julani was being hosted by the Farouq Brigades, an FSA faction based in the city.

Contrary to media reports, Farouq commanders insisted the group was not comprised of defectors from the Syrian army. Instead, they said Farouq was a sectarian Salafist group that included fighters who had fought for Zarqawi’s Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) after the 2003 US invasion. 

A few months later, Julani and his fighters secretly entered the war against the Syrian government by carrying out multiple terror attacks. In Damascus on December 23, 2011, Julani sent suicide bombers to target the General Security Directorate in Damascus, killing 44, including civilians and security personnel.

Two weeks later, on 6 January 2012, Julani sent another suicide bomber to detonate explosives near a bus in the Midan district of Damascus, killing some 26 people.

The establishment of the “Support Front for the People of the Levant,” or the Nusra Front, was revealed after a videotape was provided to journalist Mortada showing Julani and other masked men announcing the group’s existence and claiming responsibility for the attacks, which opposition activists had blamed on the Syrian government itself.

The great prison release

Julani’s rise, however, was facilitated years earlier. In what has been dubbed the “Great Prison Release of 2009,” the US military freed 5,700 high-security detainees from Bucca Prison in Iraq. Among these was Julani, alongside future ISIS leaders like Baghdadi. Craig Whiteside of the US Naval War College described Camp Bucca as “America’s Jihadi University,” emphasizing the role of these releases in revitalizing the Islamic State of Iraq – which had been nearly defeated by Sunni tribal uprisings.

“The United States is often unjustly blamed for many things that are wrong in this world, but the revitalization of ISIL [ISIS] and its incubation in our own Camp Bucca is something that Americans truly own,” Whiteside wrote. 

“The Iraqi government has many enemies, and the United States helped put many of them out on the street in 2009. Why?” Whiteside wondered, not realizing they would be sent to Syria as part of the US’s covert war to topple Bashar al-Assad.

More alarming today is the prospect of HTS releasing thousands of ISIS fighters from US–Kurdish prisons in Syria's north to expand their ranks. It wouldn't be the first time. This past July, American-backed Kurds released around 1,500 ISIS prisoners from detention camps, which the US military describes as an ISIS “army in waiting.”

The question of who Abu Mohammad al-Julani is – his motivations, ideologies, and transformations – is ultimately less important than what he represents. Over the past two decades, one fact remains consistent: Julani is a tool of US and Israeli strategy.

From his early days in Iraq to his rise as the leader of the Nusra Front and later HTS, Julani has played a pivotal role in advancing the geopolitical interests of his benefactors. Whether branded a terrorist or a “blazer-wearing” moderate, his actions have consistently served as a means to destabilize Syria and the wider West Asian region. 

Julani’s "reinvention" is no more than a veneer designed to mask the enduring reality of his role: a strategic asset in a game where ideology is secondary to power.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 18:40

Jordan Peterson Flees "Totalitarian Hellhole" Canada For U.S. Due To Censorship, Taxes

There were a number of celebrities claiming they'd move to Canada if President Trump was re-elected, but now there's one Canadian who's doing the opposite.

World famous psychologist Jordan Peterson has said Canada is turning into a “totalitarian hellhole” by suppressing free speech and has fled Canada as a result, according to the New York Post.

In a recent episode of his daughter's podcast, Peterson revealed he moved to the U.S. due to Canada’s contentious Bill C-63 and his dispute with the College of Psychologists of Ontario.

Bill C-63, the Online Harms Act, seeks to curb hate speech by holding social media platforms accountable for reducing harmful content.

Peterson said: “The issue with the College of Psychologists is very annoying, to say the least, and the new legislation that the liberals are attempting to push through, Bill C-63, we’d all be living in a totalitarian hellhole if it passes.”

The New York Post writes that the British Columbia Civil Liberties Association warned the bill could lead to wrongful convictions, while others criticized it for allowing complaints based on mere “fear” of a hate crime. In response, the Canadian government recently decided to split the bill into two parts, separating free speech concerns from child protection measures.

Meanwhile, Jordan Peterson, facing criticism for his views on transgenderism, racism, and COVID-19, remains at odds with the College of Psychologists of Ontario. The college threatened to revoke his license unless he completes social media re-education training—a decision upheld by Canada’s Supreme Court in August after Peterson's appeal was dismissed.

Peterson also cited Canada’s high cost of living under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as a factor in his decision to leave.

“The tax situation is out of hand,” he concluded. “The government in Canada at the federal level is incompetent beyond belief, and it’s become uncomfortable for me in my neighborhood in Toronto.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 18:05

Israel To Deploy Remote Automated Weapons In West Bank For First Time

Via Middle East Eye

The Israeli military is preparing to deploy remotely controlled automated weapons across occupied West Bank checkpoints to target Palestinians, according to a report by the Israeli Army Radio on Sunday.

The system, named "Roeh-Yoreh" ("See-Fires"), is an advanced weaponry structure developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems. It includes a tower with sophisticated surveillance equipment and a remote-controlled lethal fire mechanism. 

AFP: Israeli soldier looks out from a watch tower at the Qalandia checkpoint between the occupied West Bank and Jerusalem.

Since its introduction into the Israeli military arsenal in 2008, the system has been exclusively used in Gaza, where it was deployed along the security fence to target Palestinians approaching the barrier. 

According to Army Radio, the move to use the system in the West Bank comes despite its limited effectiveness in repelling the Hamas-led October 7 attacks out of Gaza. 

In the early hours of the assault, Hamas used drones to hit the tower-mounted weapons, disabling them with ease and allowing fighters to cross the boundary into Israel. 

The Israeli military plans to deploy dozens of Roeh-Yoreh systems in strategic locations across the West Bank, including settlement entrances and key control points, according to the report.

The goal, it added, was to prevent armed attacks and infiltrations into illegal Israeli settlements. The manufacturing of these systems for the West Bank has already begun. 

Initially, they will be installed at high-risk locations by the Israeli military, with plans to expand deployment to additional sites.

According to the report, the 636 Reconnaissance Unit of the West Bank Division will operate the systems, amid rising Israeli concerns about growing security threats in the territory. 

Around 700,000 Israeli settlers live in roughly 300 illegal settlements in the West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem, which have been constructed since they were captured by Israel in the 1967 war. Under international law, settlement construction in an occupied territory is illegal.

Remote weapons system at Gaza fence. Some of these reportedly failed during the Oct.7 terror attack by Hamas.

Since Israel launched its war on Gaza in October last year, violence by the army and settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank has skyrocketed. 

At least 800 Palestinians from the West Bank have been killed by Israeli fire since the war began, with around 6,500 more wounded, according to Palestinian health officials. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 17:30

Police In China Test Indestructible Ball Shaped Robot That Can "Identify And Chase Suspects"

Move over, BB-8: police in China are now testing a ball-shaped robot that "can identify and chase suspects" for the first time. 

The spherical police robot in Wenzhou, China, features cameras, flashing lights, and a self-stabilizing design, according to the South China Morning Post. Equipped with tools like tear gas, it supports law enforcement and "cannot be smashed".

Authorities say it is also "resilient in hostile environments."

Developed by Zhejiang University's College of Control Science and Engineering, the 125kg spherical robot addresses challenges faced by wheeled and legged robots. According to Associate Professor Wang You, it can reach a top speed of 35km/h in just 2.5 seconds, Wenzhou Daily reported.

Wang You said: “This robot can cope with dangers such as falling or being beaten, and can perform tactical actions such as enemy identification, tracking and capture after modular modification.”

“Because it can complete tasks in hostile environments, it can make up for the deficiencies of [Wenzhou police] drones and robot dogs," Wang added. 

The SCMP writes that the spherical robot remains functional even under attack, navigating crowds and harsh environments with ease. Equipped with speakers, net guns, and tear-gas sprayers, it enhances patrol efficiency and crisis response.

The robot is part of China's push for hi-tech innovation in policing. In March, the Ministries of Public Security and Industry issued a call for robot applications in areas like patrols, border defense, and evidence collection.

Examples of robot use will be showcased later for promotion in future initiatives. This week, Chengdu police deployed robots in commercial areas to prevent mob violence. In a simulated fight, a robot flashed lights, announced, “Win the fight, go to jail; lose the fight, go to the hospital,” and alerted nearby officers via text.

What could go wrong?

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 16:55

US In 'Direct Contact' With Designated Terror Group HTS, Blinken Admits

The US has made "direct contact" with the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) under Abu Mohammad al-Jolani which now holds Damascus and most major Syrian cities in the wake of Assad's fall.

"We’ve been in contact with HTS and with other parties," US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said following talks with Arab diplomats in Aqaba, Jordan.

This is the first official acknowledgement that the Biden administration is interacting with HTS, which has long been an officially US-designated terror organization, as it originated as Syrian al-Qaeda. Jolani also was once the personal envoy of ISIS terror leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

NBC News has underscored, "The U.S. designates HTS a terrorist organization, making it legally impossible to work with the group, but contact underscores ongoing efforts to change that designation as the U.S. and its allies look to support Syria's transition from Assad rule."

A statement from Blinken's meetings in Aqaba and signed by representatives of the US, EU, Turkey and several Arab countries called for a "a more hopeful, secure and peaceful future". It urged the protection of women and all ethnic and religious minorities, and for the preventing of "the reemergence of all terrorist groups."

Also, Jordan's foreign minister stressed that regional powers don't want to see post-Assad Syria "descend into chaos". Given that it remains formally listed as a terror group, HTS was not represented in the Jordan meeting.

The EU has also listed HTS as a terror group. Jolani still has a $10 million bounty on his head. Ironically he has been seen openly at well-known areas of Damascus, and the US could target him if it wanted to - but is clearly not.

"As we see Syria move in that direction and, in a Syrian-led and Syrian-owned process, take these steps, we in turn will look at various sanctions and other measures that we’ve taken and respond in kind," Blinken said from Aqaba.

Blinken affirmed the US position on Syria has been "communicated" to the new HTS leaders. Ironically, this comes after years of the US refusing to engage diplomatically with Bashar al-Assad, who was a secular ruler.

The US had shuttered its embassy and severed relations going all the way back to 2012. Since then there have been minimal back-channel efforts to communicate with Assad officials.

Is Jolani’s beard becoming shorter every week or is it me pic.twitter.com/KbdI4apbVC

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) December 14, 2024

Meanwhile, there have been reports that the Biden White House, with a mere weeks to go until Trump enters office, could actually remove HTS' terror designation. This despite its long documented links to both Al Qaeda and Islamic State in the not too distant past.

Washington has since 2011 pursued regime change against Assad, and though Syria emerged victorious by the early 2020s, the Army and country appeared demoralized after years of US-imposed strangling sanctions, and with US troops occupying the country's oil and gas fields in the northeast.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 12:15

20 (Or So) Obvious Questions About January 6

Authored by Jack Cashill via American Thinker,

Even before Donald Trump ascends to the presidency on January 20, his appointees should ask themselves the questions that follow — all of them simple and straightforward.  With Christopher Wray stepping down from the FBI directorship, they will have a much better chance of getting straight answers quickly.

Trump’s team should then share those answers widely.  This information will make President Trump’s pardon of more than 1,500 Americans much more comprehensible to the American public and much less controversial.

–Although now the FBI admits to having 26 confidential human sources in the crowd on January 6, how many total “assets” did the FBI and other entities plant, and what roles did they play?

–Was Ray Epps working for an entity? And if so, under what terms?

–Who planted the pipe bombs outside the DNC and near the RNC headquarters?

–Who instructed Kamala Harris to conceal the fact that she was at the DNC when the bomb was found and why?

–Why did Harris allow hundreds of J6ers to be prosecuted for threatening her designated space at the Capitol when she wasn’t at the Capitol?

–Who were the “two law enforcement officials” who told the New York Times that “pro-Trump rioters” fatally struck Capitol Police officer Brian Sicknick with a fire extinguisher, inflicting “a bloody gash in his head”?

–Who orchestrated the 100-day-plus suppression of Sicknick’s autopsy report?

–If Sicknick was not murdered, as the DOJ finally conceded, why did a federal judge give Julian Khater an 80-month prison sentence for spritzing Sicknick with an over-the-counter pepper spray?

–Has there been an official inquiry into the subsequent suicide deaths of four USCP officers, and if not, why has the DOJ routinely blamed the J6ers for causing those deaths?

–Why was there no crime scene investigation in the likely homicide of Rosanne Boyland?

–Who chose to ignore the obvious video evidence of Boyland being suffocated as a result of a police action and to falsely blame her death on an amphetamine overdose?

–Who suppressed the Boyland autopsy report for 90 days and stonewalled her family at every turn?

–Why was Lila Morris, the Metropolitan P.D. officer caught on video repeatedly bashing the unconscious Boyland over the head with a tree branch, not even disciplined?

–Why was Metropolitan P.D. lieutenant Jason Bagshaw promoted despite having been caught on video bashing the defenseless Victoria White bloody?

–Why did the DOJ not interview the eyewitnesses to the shooting death of Ashli Babbitt?

–Why did the USCP coddle and promote Babbitt’s killer, Michael Byrd, despite a shooting that, according to use-of-force expert Stan Kephart, “violated not only the law but his oath”?

–Who ordered the “shock and awe” raids on the homes of hundreds of non-violent protesters and why?

–Why has the so-called “Scaffold Commander” not been arrested despite multiple clear images of his face?

–Why has the man who constructed the mock gallows on the Capitol grounds not been arrested despite multiple clear images of his face?

–Why did the USCP allow the gallows to stand unmolested on Capitol grounds for more than four hours before the crowds gathered?

–Why was Emanuel Jackson quickly set free despite having been caught on video swinging a baseball bat at police officers over a two-hour period?

–If there was no insurrection, as the DOJ conceded, why were the sentences given to the J6ers so much more severe than the $30–50 fines given to the protesters who physically obstructed the Kavanaugh hearings?

These are the simple questions, the ones off the top.  I am sure readers will think of others I may have overlooked.  To be sure, more probing questions need to be asked about the January 6 Select Committee report as well as the charging documents for the J6ers.

Having read through much of this material, I am impressed by how casually — and routinely — our elected officials and federal jurists distort the facts to protect the party line.  In short, they lie, and some have done so under oath.

I am impressed, too, by the shamelessness of a DOJ that can boast of its success rate in securing convictions, knowing that the accused were allowed no change of venue and faced juries pulled from a pool 95 percent anti-Trump.  This needs to change.

More questions need to be asked as well about the security failures at all levels on January 6.  In his otherwise worthy book, Government Gangsters, Kash Patel more or less exonerates the Pentagon.  He should not have.  Incompetence explains much of what went wrong on January 6, but so does treason.

Nearly 1,600 American citizens were arrested for exercising their First Amendment rights on January 6, and roughly half of them have been incarcerated.  Save for the insurrectionists among them — if there were any — the rest deserve not just commutation of their sentences, but a full pardon.  Many may deserve compensation.  And all deserve the truth.

To learn more, see Jack Cashill’s newest book, Ashli: The Untold Story of the Women of January 6.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 11:40

Russian Forces Destroy More US Patriot Launchers & Advance Closer To Pokrovsk

Amid the continued rapid advance of Russian forces in Ukraine's east, and with the Donetsk villages of Vesely Gai and Pushkino (15km south of Pokrovsk) having been captured, Russia is also going after US-made Patriot batteries.

"Russian forces have destroyed four Patriot anti-aircraft missile launchers provided to Ukraine by Western nations," the Defense Ministry announced Saturday.

Ministerie van Defensie/Moscow Times

The statement said that air force jets along with with drones and artillery groups, "destroyed a combat control vehicle, an AN/MPQ-65 radar station and four launchers of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system made in the US."

Zelensky has pleaded with the West to hand Ukraine at least 25 Patriot batteries, and some European countries have recently donated theirs to Ukrainian forces.

This isn't the first time that Russia has taken out Patriots. Back in October the defense ministry said its forces struck "two Patriot launcher stations made in the US" along with a control station and radar set part of the Patriot defensive network.

At that time a Ukrainian member of parliament had revealed that at least one Patriot battery was damaged in the October attack, but Kiev typically doesn't comment on the extent of damage to its Western-supplied weapons systems.

Early last summer the Biden administration took the drastic step of pausing all Patriot deliveries to allies, instead announcing that they would be redirected to Ukraine.

"We’re going to reprioritize the deliveries of these exports so that those missiles rolling off the production line will now be provided to Ukraine," Biden said at the time, with these first shipments having rolled out by late summer and into fall.

Patriot missile batteries have also been sent to to Ukraine from US bases of operations in neighboring Poland. All of this has been controversial as it impacts Europe's home defense.

In almost a month we have not seen a single North Korea fighter in Russia or Ukraine. Dead or alive. Daily Mail even had to fake one. You think maybe the whole thing was just propaganda designed to justify more NATO escalation? https://t.co/Geet6TL5q7

— Daniel McAdams (@DanielLMcAdams) December 11, 2024

President Biden at the start of that prior initiative had announced that "everything we have is going to go to Ukraine until their needs are met" amid the broader push to get more European countries to donate weapons.

Meanwhile there are more indicators that Ukraine's front lines are crumbling:

Ukraine's military leadership has replaced the commander overseeing defenses in the eastern Donetsk region where Russian forces are making swift advances, a military official said on Saturday.

General Oleksandr Tarnavskiy, 54, was appointed to head the operational and tactical group Donetsk, replacing General Oleksandr Lutsenko, the official at the General Staff told Reuters.

The weekend report further said, "Lutsenko was criticized by Ukrainian military bloggers and some lawmakers for failing to stop Russian troops' relentless push toward the strategic Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk."

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 11:05

New Theory: NJ Drone Sightings May Be "Nuclear Sniffers" Following Elevated NYC Radiation Levels

The founder of an aerospace company specializing in military-grade drones published a video on the Chinese social media platform TikTok, sharing his thoughts on the mystery drone sightings in New Jersey. His expert opinion is alarming, leaving many wishing that Paul Krugman's theory about an alien invasion was true instead.

Source: Fox News

"I spoke to a gentleman a few months ago, who was trying to raise the alarm to the highest levels of our government ... about this one particular nuclear warhead that he physically put his hands on ... that was left over from Ukraine ... and he knew this thing was headed towards the United States," Saxon Aerospace's John Ferguson stated in the video.

He continued: "Everyone knows that this administration is pushing to get into war with Russia."

"Let's back up a few years ... remember when those drones were mysteriously flying across I-70 from Colorado to Nebraska to Kansas and then to Missouri? Well, it was believed that those drones were looking for radioactive material that came up missing in the US," Ferguson noted. 

Ferguson then explained the various payloads drones can support, such as laser sensors and optics, and he added, "Drones have no reason to fly at night... Because they don't see shit. Unless you have thermal optics - drones really don't see stuff at night - mapping must be done during the day." 

Ferguson then segued into the purported drone sightings in New Jersey, noting, "These drones are not nefarious in intent ... but if they're drones - the only reason they would be flying - and flying that low at night - is because they're trying to smell something on the ground." 

"My belief is that these drones are trying to smell something on the ground - if that's gas leaks or radioactive material - or whatever." 

John Ferguson, the CEOof Saxon Aerospace, a manufacturer of manned drones, gives his assessment of all the mysterious drones plaguing New Jersey and other places in America right now. pic.twitter.com/vx299AimAj

— Mila Joy (@MilaLovesJoe) December 14, 2024

Ferguson's theory was also shared with X user JerseyFutures (account now deleted), a self-proclaimed RF engineer, who speculated, "What you're seeing is American-made HPGe nuclear detector drones..." 

pic.twitter.com/a8NHe1HIJa

— Bob's News (@dyversityhire) December 14, 2024

Simultaneously, the website Geiger Counter World Map shows counts per minute between 222 and 278 in New York City. 

Radiation Exposure Scale... 

Google searches for "real-time radiation map" have erupted.

Searches for "dirty bombs" have also erupted. 

Meanwhile, these purported drone sightings are happening around Congressional action on counter-drone authorities and expansion... We explained this on Saturday:

NJ Drone 'Invasion' Just In Time For Congress To Reauthorize Orwellian Law https://t.co/6tLkbDAP8u

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 14, 2024

The mass hysteria surrounding drone sightings appears to have been exaggerated by MSM (Covid-style propaganda) and some on social media for multiple reasons: 

• Perhaps as a cover for drones with nuclear sniffer sensors seeking to find a potential threat. 

• Or, could this be a deliberate attempt to scare the nation with a drone psyop in order to push through H.R.8610, the Counter-UAS Authority Security, Safety, and Reauthorization Act of 2024?

On Saturday, NJ State Senator Jon Bramnick told NewsNation, "There must be something going on that they can't tell us because they're so fearful of what the public is going to do when they hear what the drones are doing."

JUST IN: NJ State Senator suggests the federal gov. is hiding something so massive involving the drones that they are forced to cover it up in fear of all-out panic from the public.

The comments were made by State Sen. Jon Bramnick on NewsNation.

"There must be something going… pic.twitter.com/77hfXnEkWp

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) December 14, 2024

Bramnick emphasized: "The Department of Defense has to come clean with the American public." 

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 10:30

Is Copper Still The 'New Oil'?

In 2021, Goldman Sachs declared copper "the new oil", highlighting its essential role in clean energy technologies.

Two years later, the IMF forecasted that copper demand will rise by over 66% from 2020 to 2040 as the world transitions away from oil.

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu illustrates how copper demand is projected to increase over the coming decades, while oil consumption is expected to decrease.

The data was compiled by the International Monetary Fund as of October 2024.

Rising Copper Demand

Copper is critical for a wide range of applications, including the electrical grid, electric vehicles (EVs), and renewable energy technologies.

Beyond clean energy, copper is also extensively used in industries such as construction, infrastructure, and defense due to its unique properties.

As a result, global copper demand is projected to grow from 25.9 million tonnes in 2023 to 39.1 million tonnes by 2040 under a net-zero emissions scenario that limits average temperature increases to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

 

Much of this growth is expected to come from the EV industry.

Many components of battery electric vehicles rely on copper. On average, a standard EV contains 60-83 kg of copper, four times more than an internal combustion engine vehicle, which typically uses 15-20 kg of copper per car.

Meanwhile, oil consumption is projected to decrease, dropping from 101.9 million barrels per day in 2023 to 66 million barrels per day by 2040.

The decline in oil use is driven by global efforts to reduce carbon emissions and the growing adoption of renewable energy. Additionally, improvements in energy efficiency and policy regulations are further curbing oil demand.

If you want to learn more about this topic, check out this graphic showing the top 12 countries by fossil fuel consumption in 2023.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 08:45

These Are The Countries With The Highest Food Inflation In 2024

Rising food inflation impacts global food security and disproportionately affects vulnerable populations.

But from South America to Africa and the Middle East, which countries are the hardest hit by increasing food prices in 2024?

This bar chart, via Visual Capitalist's Selin Oğuz, sponsored by Brazil Potash, uses the latest data from Trading Economics to show which countries have the highest food inflation.

Food Inflation Trends by Country and Region

Leading all countries, Argentina is grappling with a 183% year-over-year increase in food prices. The country also has the highest forecasted food inflation in the world, at 120%, for next year’s second quarter.

Argentina’s high food inflation stems from a mix of its currency devaluation, severe droughts, reliance on exports, economic instability, and political unrest.

Palestine is the runner-up for the highest food inflation with 115%. However, it is forecasted to lower dramatically to 12% halfway through 2025.

Meanwhile, six of the next eight countries are all in Africa. The African countries with the highest food inflation are Zimbabwe at 105% and South Sudan at 96%.

At the same time, other African nations, like Malawi, Nigeria, and Angola, face rates between 34% and 44%, highlighting the broader food inflation trend across the continent.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 07:35

Peace In Ukraine

Authored by Tumoas Malinen via substack,

The conflict in Ukraine, having passed the 1000-day mark, is approaching a very unpleasant stalemate, for all. Russian forces are pushing through the lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), which in some places seem to be in almost chaotic retreat. The situation calls for rapid actions to stop the conflict from spiraling out of control and escalating into World War III.

The war in Ukraine has also become highly emotionalized, due to the relentless war propaganda spewed especially by the European mainstream media. This has created something of an emotional blockade among politicians, making it difficult for them to engage in negotiations that would require both sides to compromise. The dominant narrative is that Ukraine must win, leaving little room for exploring other solutions to the conflict.

Regardless, the path to peace lies in return to realpolitik in Europe, that is, a return to political principles based on practical, not value-based or ideological, considerations. 

Essentially, there are six facts successful peace negotiations in Ukraine need to be based on:

1. In all non-nuclear military scenarios Russia will emerge as the victor in the Ukraine conflict.

2. Russia is unlikely to seek occupation of all of Ukraine.

3. Negotiations will have to fulfil (almost) all of Kremlin’s publicly declared goals, i.e. neutrality, limited military, territorial loss, non-membership in NATO but perhaps membership of the EU.

4. A credible force must be assigned to establish and monitor the line of ceasefire.

5. Due to a lack of mutual trust, all parties must commit to pre-agreement acts of de-escalation.

6. Post-war collapse of Ukraine must be prevented to avoid widespread and well-armed terrorism/banditry in the surrounding areas. Collapse will commence unless all parties commit to support Ukraine pre-agreement.

Pre-conditions for negotiations Russia in Ukraine

There’s no denying that Russia is obliterating not just the AFU, but also Ukrainian society. Russian troops are advancing rapidly, and the air raids over the weekend of 16-17th of November 2024, implied that the Kremlin is ready to push Ukraine into darkness. Moreover, Russia struck the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with new hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) “Oreshnik” carrying a non-nuclear payload on early morning of 21st November. These entail that there is only one (non-nuclear) endgame in Ukraine: capitulation of the AFU, either through negotiated peace or surrender.

For these reasons, the path to peace needs to be sought from the original aims of Kremlin. The publicly stated aims of the Special Military Operation (SMO), which commenced on February 24, 2022, were four:

1. Defending the people of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics under the Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.

2. To clear “neo-Nazis” from Ukrainian leadership.

3. To stop the nuclear weapons program of Ukraine.

4. To stop and remove the NATO infrastructure being build, threatening Russia, from Ukraine.

In simplified terms, and as is widely known, the aim was a “demilitarization and denazification” of Ukraine. The term denazification is very elusive and it was probably used to draw sympathy from Russian citizens, by linking the SMO into the Great Patriotic War. It is quite unclear, whether there was a nuclear weapons program in Ukraine. This claim was likely aimed at Russian populace to provide further justification for the war. So, #1 and #4 can be considered as the actual aims of the Kremlin. There is where the path to peace lies.

It can also be assumed that the full collapse and occupation of Ukraine is not something the Kremlin is seeking either. The costs of the annexation of Crimea in early 2014 to Russia’s fiscal balance were staggering. The economic foundations, including tourism and private businesses, on the Peninsula collapsed and Russia emptied her Sovereign Reserve Fund to pay for the costs of annexation. The second military phase of the conflict has close to halved the size of the National Wealth Fund, with its value falling by $79 billion since February 2022, despite rising energy prices. The Kremlin simply cannot first destroy most of Ukraine in a war and then hold and rebuild it, because this would collapse Russian state finances.

Goals of Kreml and the line of ceasefire

The stated aims of the SMO listed above imply that Russia is seeking for the neutrality of Ukraine (from NATO), its limited military capacity and territorial annexation of Eastern Ukraine, more specifically Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblast, mostly inhabited by ethnic Russians. Russia unilaterally declared an annexation of these areas, but did not set their exact boundaries, which would be “defined later”, on September 30, 2022. This implies that the area-concession were not carved in stone and would most likely depend on a set of other factors, including how strong the Kremlin sees the commitment of the U.S. to the neutrality of Ukraine to be.

Because Russia is dominating the developments on the battlefield, peace needs to be made on the terms of Kremlin. If this is not accepted, Kreml can push the AFU to unconditional surrender effectively leading to the same end-result, but with more dire implications for the West.

The stability of the cease-fire and establishing the buffer-zone between the AFU and Russian forces is paramount. The OSCE (Organization for Security and Co-operation) mission to eastern Ukraine, between March 2014 and March 2022, was a failure with the mission failing to objectively report on developments on the ground and to stop the war from escalating. Both the current Russian and the forthcoming U.S. administration have had serious reservations towards the United Nations. Yet, mostly due to this, it’s likely to be the only entity in the world that can effectively establish and control the buffer-zone and ceasefire. This is because under the U.N. neither side, the U.S./NATO or Russia, would have any direct control on the mission, which would report to the Security Council, where all major nuclear nations would monitor the ceasefire and creation of the buffer-zone. This would be the best shot for establishing an objective oversight of the line of ceasefire.

Rebuilding trust through pre-agreement acts of de-escalation

The Russo-Ukrainian war sowed division within Europe and between Russia and NATO/U.S. The war propaganda in Europe created hostilities towards Russia and Russians. In the propaganda of the Kremlin, this was used to justify the aggression towards Ukraine and question the motives of the West.

The deepening involvement of NATO in Ukraine has been a driving force of escalation. It was a generally held view, prior the Russo-Ukrainian war, that no country involved to an armed conflict could be taken as a member of NATO. Yet, with Ukraine something changed, with the NATO leadership effectively “annexing” Ukraine. On February 24, 2024, the former Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, even stated that “Ukraine will join NATO. It is not a question of if, but of when”. The new Secretary General, Mark Rutte, has continued on the same line of argumentation.

The strikes of the AFU on Russian early-warning systems (over-the-horizon radars) operating in Krasnodar Krai near Ukraine, and in Orenburg region near Orsk some 1500 km from Ukraine, during this year, were extremely sinister actions of escalation. The radars had no role in the conflict of Ukraine, with the radar in Orsk not even looking in the direction of Ukraine. The strikes of the AFU were conventional strikes on nuclear forces and command and control systems, which Russia listed as one of the conditions for nuclear weapons usage. Fortunately, Kreml did not react.

The fact also is that the war in Ukraine should have stopped in late spring of 2022. At that point the Kremlin had reached most of its stated goals of the SMO. Peace negotiations held in Istanbul, Turkey, in March/April 2022 were reported to have reached an agreement of truce before the U.S. and the U.K. allegedly stepped in and effectively stopped the peace process. During the summer of 2024, Ukraine and the West were also signaling willingness for a peaceful resolution, which were cautiously welcomed by the Kremlin. Then, in August 2024, the AFU invaded the Kursk region in Russia. Moreover, the Minsk agreements, signed in September 2014 and February 2015 officially aimed at ending the conflict in Ukraine, were actually used just to buy time to arm Ukraine against Russia.

For these reasons, trust between the parties needs to be re-built. Pre-agreement acts of de-escalation should include:

1. Russia limiting her military presence to ceded areas and evacuates attack systems to sufficient distance from borders (established line of ceasefire) of the remaining Ukraine. Russia also commits to avoid further use of arms in Europe, to participate in the rebuilding of Ukraine and declares willingness to renewed trade if sanctions are lifted.

2. The EU and the US stop all deliveries of weapons and volunteers to Ukraine immediately and declare willingness to deactivate economic sanctions.

3. The U.S. and Russia announce their commitment on the independence and neutrality of (remaining) Ukraine.

4. The EU and the U.S. agree on an emergency economic support package for the (remaining) Ukraine.

5. The U.S. informs that the current leadership of NATO will be changed, and that NATO will go through a rigorous audit concerning its actions and policies.

Prevention of post-war collapse of Ukraine

The economy and society of Ukraine has become severely damaged. The war has eaten through whole age cohorts, while the infrastructure of Ukraine has taken a serious hit (which is worsening by the day). As a result, living standards will be low for an extended time and powerful weapons will be easily available for the inhabitants. If the Ukrainian economy and society would be allowed to collapse, Europe would see another wave of migration, with many of the refugees carrying deadly weapons. For this reason, both the U.S. but especially the EU needs to commit to economic support and rebuilding.

Most importantly, also for the peace process, the situation in post-war Ukraine must be prevented from becoming chaotic (causing severe problems in the surrounding areas). The keys to this would be:

1. The US and the EU need to undertake food, shelter and healthcare provisions in any needed quantities immediately on conclusion of the hostilities. A foreign run police or a paramilitary force needs to be established to keep order and collect unregistered arms.

2. The US and the EU take responsibility for repairing and rebuilding Ukraine housing and infrastructure. During the peace negotiations plans should be drawn up on the timing and distribution of work. Russia naturally takes care of rebuilding the parts of Ukraine it annexed, but could take a part in the re-building of western Ukraine as a sign of good-will.

3. Ukraine itself needs to establish new, neutral/accepted authorities as well as routines and policies for the new government. General elections need to be held as soon as possible.

4. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank need to agree on long-term structural loans and restructuring of the current debt load of the federal government of Ukraine.

Conclusions

Conflict in Ukraine has been very destructive to Ukraine, but also to the European security structure. European leaders should have been able to stop the escalation already in 2013 and 2014, but they failed. The ‘void’ of European leadership became epitomized in the peace negotiations during the March and April 2022 torpedoed, reportedly, by the U.S. and U.K. War should have ended during the Spring of 2022, but it was let to continue and even escalate on reasons mostly unclear. Due to the failures of our leaders, we are at the brink of yet another continental war.

Peace in Ukraine and strengthening the European security structure can be achieved without pushing our continent into a cycle a re-armament, which has always presided a continental war. Realities on the ground need to be acknowledged alongside meeting the demands of Kremlin. Peace in Ukraine will not be easy, but we need it now more than ever.

*  *  *

Tuomas Malinen on Geopolitics and the Economy is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 07:00

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

• It’s Time to Break Up Big Medicine: UnitedHealth Group is not an insurer, it’s a platform. And it’s in the crosshairs as Elizabeth Warren and Josh Hawley propose breaking it apart, severing its pharmacy arm from the rest of the business. (BIG by Matt Stoller)

• Taxpayers spend 22% more per patient to support Medicare Advantage – the private alternative to Medicare that promised to cost less: Medicare Advantage was supposed to find efficiencies, but instead is costing taxpayers an extra $83 billion a year. (The Conversation)  see also Fraud and Fakery at the Country’s Largest Chain of Methadone Clinics: Acadia Healthcare falsifies records at its methadone clinics and enrolls patients who aren’t addicted to opioids, a Times investigation found.. (New York Times)

• No Place for Violence: Reflecting on the Tragic Death of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson: No matter how deep our grievances or how righteous our anger may feel, violence has no place in our society. The murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson is a tragedy that demands our collective condemnation. What happened in New York City was not an act of justice; it was a killing that has left a family. (Health Care Un-Covered)

• The Fraudulence of “Waste, Fraud and Abuse” History repeats itself, the first time as farce, the second as clown show. (Krugman Wonks Out)

• He Investigates the Internet’s Most Vicious Hackers—From a Secret Location: In the increasingly dangerous world of cybercrime, Brian Krebs faces threats, manipulation and the odd chess challenge. (Wall Street Journal)

• The Climate Risk to the Mortgage System: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which backstop most U.S. mortgages, know floods and fires are a growing problem. But little action has been taken. (New York Times)

• How billionaire Charles Koch’s network won a 40-year war to curb regulation: A seismic Supreme Court ruling has ushered in a new era of diminished federal power. The next Trump administration hopes to capitalize on it. (Washington Post)

• January 6th Was a Success: Trump managed to turn his presidency’s darkest day into a political springboard. And now, he’ll seek retribution. (The Bulwark).

• The Billionaire Bully Who Wants to Turn Texas Into a Christian Theocracy: The state’s most powerful figure, Tim Dunn, isn’t an elected official. But behind the scenes, the West Texas oilman is lavishly financing what he regards as a holy war against public education, renewable energy, and non-Christians. (Texas Monthly)

• Pushed to Play: College Football Coaches Routinely Violate Rules Meant to Protect Players: Coaches routinely violate rules meant to protect injured athletes at football powerhouses. (Businessweek)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Tony Kim, Head of Technology Investing, Fundamental Active Equity at Blackrock. He is manager of the firm’s Technology Opportunities Fund (BGSAX), which has trounced the Nasdaq 100 and the MSCI World Net benchmarks since its inception in June 2000; his new AI-focused fund, the iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF, just began trading.

America’s Housing Problem in One Chart

Source: Washington Post

 

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The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Online Shopping: Charting The Holiday Surge

In the fourth quarter of 2023, online shopping was a record-breaking 17% of all retail sales. Put another way, one out of every six dollars was spent online.

This graphic from Visual Capitalist's Jenna Ross, in partnership with BGO, highlights the spike in ecommerce that occurs every year during the holiday season.

The Growing Popularity of Online Shopping

Over the last 15 years, the percentage of money consumers are spending online has more than tripled. The most online shopping always occurs in the fourth quarter due to Black Friday and holiday spending.

In the table below, we show online shopping as a percentage of total retail sales over time.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Data accessed November 19, 2024.

With people stretched for time during the busy holiday season, many opt for quick online orders and home deliveries. 

Beyond convenience, deals also draw people to their screens. For instance, Amazon’s October Prime Day and Cyber Monday both offer deals catered to online shoppers. In 2024, Cyber Monday drew over 64 million U.S. shoppers—nearly three times higher than the 23 million people who shopped in stores.

To handle the increase in online shopping orders, U.S. retailers will need to have a plan for storing their products and transporting them to customers.

The Logistics of Online Orders

Free and fast shipping are top priorities for online shoppers. Nearly 40% would abandon a retailer with high shipping costs, while 32% would stop buying because of late deliveries. These high expectations, and the increase in ecommerce, is driving demand for real estate that can process online orders.

BGO’s industrial warehouse and logistics properties are strategically located to help reduce expenses and transport goods to consumers more quickly. During the busy holiday period, these properties run at full efficiency to meet the surging demand.

Learn what’s moving markets in BGO’s The Chief Economist newsletter.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/14/2024 - 22:45

Possible Foreign Policy Shifts In The New Administration

Authored by Christian Milord via The Epoch Times,

With an incoming administration that will be installed on Jan. 20, 2025, will there be shifts in America’s foreign policies for the next four years that could affect the security of California and the other states?

It’s likely that some of the positions in the Biden administration will be maintained, but President-elect Donald Trump’s stamp on future policies could reflect stances taken during his first term. How will Trump, 47th president, compare with Trump, 45th president?

Trump, similar to Teddy Roosevelt, will likely often speak softly and carry a big stick. He will get along with our adversaries to gain leverage but will also inform authoritarian leaders in no uncertain terms that aggressions against America and its global partners will not stand.

During Trump’s first term, China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia were limited to routine saber-rattling on the world stage. However, during President Joe Biden’s tenure, China’s bullying became more overt, Iran greenlighted the invasion of Israel, Russia invaded Ukraine for the second time, and North Korea launched more test missiles than ever and sent troops to Ukraine. These brazen activities will be difficult to halt, but Trump has indicated he will strive to mitigate them.

First, Trump will enhance border security to a much greater degree than the prior administration. He might have to cut off funding to sanctuary cities and states that oppose his deportation plan for criminals. In addition, it shouldn’t take the threat of tariffs against Canada and Mexico for those two nations to carry out the legwork to secure their sides of the border with the United States.

Trump will also likely persuade Panama to shutter the Darien Gap, a lawless migration hub. The Department of Homeland Security also urgently needs more Border Patrol agents, and the border wall with Mexico must be completed to maintain an orderly immigration process. Moreover, additional immigration judges will be required to expedite the process of immigration for genuine asylum cases and legal immigration cases.

Border security is a critical part of the overall national security strategy in order to vet immigrants and prevent criminal gangs and terrorists from entering the country. Many of these criminals are involved in arms, drugs, and human trafficking that are devastating to vulnerable minors, while our social services are stretched to the breaking point.

Unlawful immigrants who seek to game the system and take advantage of tax-funded social services should be turned back at the border. If an immigrant breaks the initial law of entering the country illegally, what is to stop them from circumventing other laws in an attempt to take shortcuts to permanent residency?

Next, Trump will continue to support Israel and Ukraine in their fight against tyranny to a certain extent, but he will also work to bring the hostile parties together to negotiate for cease-fires or a cessation of conflict. Moscow promised Kyiv in the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 that if Ukraine’s nuclear weapons were turned over to Russia, there would be no invasion. Ukraine complied, but Vladimir Putin broke the pact and invaded twice. That is why any treaties with Russia must be assessed with a trust-but-verify posture.

Trump will likely sign off on greater sanctions against Iranian and Russian assets in order to wind down the wars and curtail the flow of weapons to nefarious actors within reach of the combat zones. He will concur with Benjamin Netanyahu that Hamas must never again govern in the Gaza Strip. Trump might also apply leverage to North Korea’s Kim Jong Un to persuade him to withdraw his troops from the Russian battle-space adjacent to Ukraine.

Third, America’s national security could be enhanced if Trump shores up our freedom-loving global partners and also reaches out to developing nations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

This cultural and commercial outreach can provide a counterweight to China’s malign activities in those continents. The European Union could also contribute to Europe’s’ security and stability abroad.

Fourth, Trump will likely adopt foreign policy that utilizes both the carrot and stick of diplomacy and military power.

Building a strong military force can actually mitigate the need to apply armed power as it projects peace through strength, according to President Ronald Reagan. It is highly critical that our armed forces stay ahead of the curve vis a vis our adversaries in the spheres of training and weapons platforms.

Fifth, hopefully Trump will allow Congress to appropriate adequate resources to the armed forces in order to maintain capability, capacity, and readiness to deter China’s potential blockade or invasion of Taiwan. It would take an entire book to catalog the atrocities carried out by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on a daily basis as it conducts unrestricted warfare against its own people and the West. Trump ought to approach the CCP and its predatory practices from the perspective of cold, hard reality.

Any trade with China should involve reciprocity, and if China doubles down on trade barriers, tariffs can be imposed. If Beijing wants to enter foreign markets, buy land, and set up shop, then it should allow Western companies to do the same in China. Moreover, the United States ought to decouple from any Chinese goods or services that adversely affect national security.

Finally, Trump will pursue an America First agenda in foreign policy by using both arm-twisting and horse-trading. He will place the interests of the U.S. above the demands of other nations in order to advance free markets, liberty, peace, and an accepted rules-based order.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/14/2024 - 22:10

American Citizen Flown Out Of Syria By US Military 

An American man has been flown out of Syria by the US military from an undisclosed location, after he was handed over by Syria's new governing authorities, HTS.

The US citizen has been identified as Travis Timmerman, who had been held in a Syrian prison since his arrest under the Assad government seven months ago. Several international reports said he had walked into Syria from Lebanon, presumably with no visa and not utilizing a customs or proper border checkpoint. 

Via NBC

AP and Reuters confirmed Friday Timmerman was handed over to "the American side" and flown out of Syria. Timmerman is from Missouri, but was last seen in Hungary but his family hadn't heard from him since. 

He said he had entered Syria on a spiritual "pilgrimage" and it appears his arrest resulted from entering Syria by illegal means and without an issued visa. Americans and Westerners have frequently traveled in Syria, even over the last few years, but they have gotten valid visas typically from the Syrian Embassy in Beirut, or at the border of entry.

He has described in Western media interviews that he was treated well in prison, and he is in good health. BBC describes of the past days:

On Monday, a day after rebels took control of Damascus and toppled Assad, Mr Timmerman said two men armed with a hammer broke open his prison door. It was "busted down, it woke me up", he said.

"I thought the guards were still there, so I thought the warfare could have been more active than it ended up being… Once we got out, there was no resistance, there was no real fighting."

The 30-year-old said he left prison with a large group of people and had been attempting to make his way to Jordan.

Since Assad's fall people have clamored to break open prison doors and set all prisoners free. Currently there's a search for American journalist Austin Tice, who disappeared in Syria in 2012 after embedding with anti-Assad militants.

Exclusive: The American citizen found near the Syrian capital Damascus is named Travis Timmerman, and is not missing US journalist Austin Tice. He tells Al Arabiya he was in prison for 7 months but was treated well. pic.twitter.com/UKLimmKGuh

— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) December 12, 2024

Despite his being in an area with al-Qaeda jihadists and armed gangs at the time, the US government has always blamed the Assad side for his disappearance, which Damascus always vehemently denied. The search across the country is still on for any clues of what might have happened to him.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/14/2024 - 21:35

ADHD Or Something Else? One In 4 Adults Are Self-Diagnosing

Authored by Amy Denny via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Imagine being the school band director and waking up at 1 a.m. on the day of a big parade to realize that you never booked the school bus to transport your students.

PeopleImages.com - Yuri A/Shutterstock

For Lisa Burden, this experience was more than a nightmare. It was a wake-up call to her own shortcomings. While exceptionally bright and creative, she also had to contend with another side of herself. She’d struggled since childhood with challenges like being able to keep track of things and being told she talked too much.

“There were responsibilities that I would just forget to do. It wasn’t like I didn’t want to do them,” she told The Epoch Times. “I came to a point when I had to admit I could not keep it all in my head. I’ll have a thought, and then I don’t know when I’ll have that thought again.”

While attention-deficit-hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a condition that can undermine a person’s ability to navigate our modern age, in some ways, it is more helpful to think of it as a mismatch of mental abilities. ADHD involves symptoms of inattentiveness, impulsiveness, and hyperactivity, among others.

People with ADHD have brains that think differently in a world that’s become more sedentary and rigid. Experts say seeing ADHD through a new lens can help adults strengthen their thinking, improve their relationships, and accentuate their strengths.

Maybe It Is ADHD

About 15.5 million—or 6 percent—of American adults have been diagnosed with ADHD. About half were diagnosed as adults, with one-third of those diagnosed receiving treatment, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

To be diagnosed with ADHD as a child, one needs to have six symptoms involving inattentiveness, hyperactivity, or impulsivity. An adult diagnosis requires five.

Those symptoms include the following:

• Trouble paying attention or being easily distracted
• Being disorganized
• Procrastinating
• Inability to plan or organize
• Difficulty recalling daily tasks
• Losing things frequently
• Being extremely talkative or frequently interrupting
• Trouble multitasking or focusing on larger projects
• Finding it hard to follow instructions or finish projects
• Inability to sit still for lengthy periods
• Fidgeting
• The need to be constantly moving
• Prioritizing immediate rewards over future rewards

There are a few other criteria, too, including symptoms that have been around since before age 12, with clear evidence that they are severe, frequent, and persistent enough to cause problems in at least two areas of life, such as at work, school, church, or home.

Finally, hormonal and mental disorders, such as depression, anxiety, or a psychotic disorder, must be ruled out. However, there is no definitive diagnostic tool, such as bloodwork or brain scans, for ADHD.

Beyond Stereotypes

Experts understand ADHD better than they did two decades ago. The stigma is lifting, and awareness is growing, according to Marcy M. Caldwell, a licensed clinical psychologist who specializes in the treatment and assessment of adult ADHD.

She told The Epoch Times that social media has given voice to people who are describing their experiences with ADHD and raising it as a possibility for many people who might not have considered it previously.

For a number of years, ADHD was stereotypically considered a disorder associated with young boys. That, particularly, left a lot of girls undiagnosed in childhood who went on to be diagnosed as adults.

However, professionals are beginning to better understand that symptoms can vary depending on race, sex, and age, Caldwell said. They are also noting that children often don’t outgrow ADHD, as was previously believed in most cases. Rather, she said symptoms relapse and remit throughout life depending on other circumstances.

“In that waxing and waning, the symptoms can come up again around major life events,” Caldwell said. “In normal life, the major events come up at different times. But in 2020, we were all hit with a major life event, so there was a big upsurge in diagnosis that happened after COVID as everyone was adjusting to very new circumstances.”

Pillars of Brain Health

Caldwell described the ADHD brain as working as an off-on light switch, whereas a neurotypical brain can adjust lighting with a dimmer switch. That is, for those with ADHD, the light switch is either on—hyperfocusing, usually with enjoyable tasks—or off for tasks that aren’t as pleasurable.

It takes far more energy, she said, for someone with ADHD to use their brain like a dimmer switch, though it can be done. That energy can come from the following foundational health pillars:

• Sleep
• Exercise
• Nutrition
• Medication
• Meditation
• Connection

“Those are six really hard things, and there’s a lot involved with them. You don’t have to do all of them,” she said.

However, on a day when you don’t get much sleep, you can try one of the others to boost your brain energy, typically exercise, according to Caldwell.

IQ Biologix supplements and a ketogenic diet will also go a long way... Movement as Fuel

Any exercise is great for boosting energy, though specific exercises may be more tolerable to different brain states, said Caldwell. Rowing, running, and walking are helpful for those who are inattentive. Meanwhile, sports like soccer or karate—during which you must respond to a constantly changing environment—are good for those struggling with hyperactivity and impulsivity.

The problem, Caldwell added, is that most people try to change how their brains work so they can function in the world rather than changing the world for how their brains work. That means if you need to move more, as many with ADHD do, consider using a standing or treadmill desk, take frequent breaks, and exercise before work to build up energy stores.

“A lot of people start out with more ability to regulate their tasks and attention, and as the day goes on, they have less capacity to do that,” she said. “Save things that aren’t as taxing for later in the day.”

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/14/2024 - 21:00

Assad's Fall Is A Major Blow To Russia

Authored by Andrew Latham via RealClearWorld,

Russia’s 2015 military intervention in Syria was a bold assertion of its great power ambitions, rescuing Bashar al-Assad's regime and projecting influence in the Middle East. However, recent rebel advances and Assad’s sudden deposal threaten to isolate Russia’s Khmeimim airbase and Tartus naval facility, undermining both the practical and symbolic foundations of Moscow’s global power status.

The fall of Assad promises to be a major blow to Russia, which is already bogged down in Ukraine. Its ramifications are likely to be felt across Moscow’s foreign policy, which could soon face some stark and unenviable choices.

The Russian presence in Syria is central to the Kremlin’s broader strategy of force projection. Its Mediterranean bases allow Moscow to sustain military operations in the Levant, North Africa, and beyond, countering U.S. influence. With the key city of Homs having fallen to the rebels, supply routes to Khmeimim and Tartus have been severed, forcing reliance on vulnerable air and sea routes. This will weaken Russia’s operational readiness and its ability to influence events in neighboring theaters, including Africa.

Khmeimim also serves as a logistical hub for Russian private military contractors (PMCs) like the Wagner Group, active in Libya, Mali, and the Central African Republic. These contractors are central to Moscow’s efforts to expand its influence in Africa, providing security and securing lucrative economic deals. With Khmeimim isolated, sustaining these operations would become costly and inefficient, reducing Moscow’s ability to achieve its geopolitical objectives on the continent.

The isolation of Khmeimim and Tartus will severely constrain Russia’s ability to sustain military operations in Syria and beyond, undermining its ability to conduct airstrikes, reconnaissance, and rapid-response missions. PMCs, reliant on robust logistics, will face disruptions, emboldening opposition forces and exposing the fragility of Russia’s African partnerships. These setbacks will ripple through Moscow’s strategic calculations, undercutting its influence and economic goals.

The symbolic consequences of a rebel victory will be even more damaging. Moscow has portrayed its intervention in Syria as a demonstration of its reliability as an ally and its ability to uphold the sovereignty of client states. The loss in Syria will puncture this narrative, exposing the limits of Russian power and credibility. Regional actors, including Iran, Turkey, and the Gulf states, will recalibrate their perceptions of Moscow’s influence, while African partners might pivot toward more reliable alternatives such as China or the West.

Domestically, the repercussions of a diminished role in Syria will be significant. President Vladimir Putin has marketed the Syrian intervention as a triumph of Russian statecraft, portraying it as a cornerstone of Russia’s resurgence on the global stage. While critics of Russia’s foreign interventions have questioned their costs for years, the fall of Assad could amplify these doubts in ways the prolonged conflict in Ukraine has not. Syria's collapse would symbolize a failure of Russia's ability to safeguard allied regimes, striking at the narrative of strategic competence that Putin has worked to project. Public perceptions of Russian strength, carefully curated through state-controlled media, could falter, creating broader political vulnerabilities. Moreover, Syria has served as a testing ground for Russian weapons systems, and reduced visibility in the region would weaken their appeal to buyers, further diminishing Russia’s geopolitical leverage and economic gains from arms exports. The rebel victory in Syria will resonate globally. For the United States and its allies, it will validate strategies to contain Russian influence and embolden further countermeasures. NATO could leverage Russia’s difficulties to underscore the limitations of its global reach, while China might accelerate efforts to dominate regions like Central Asia and Africa, further sidelining Moscow in regions where it traditionally competes.

Russia now faces a stark choice: escalate its military commitment to protect its strategic interests, such as its naval facility in Tartus and airbase in Khmeimim, or accept a diminished role in the region. Escalation would aim to preserve these assets and reassert influence but risks clashes with other regional powers and would strain resources already stretched by commitments in Ukraine and Africa. Retrenchment, however, would signal a devastating blow to Russia's credibility as a reliable guarantor of allied regimes worldwide, sending a clear message to its partners in Africa, the Middle East, and beyond that Moscow cannot be counted on to defend its allies in times of crisis. This erosion of trust would undermine Russia’s broader global strategy and invite further challenges to its influence elsewhere.

Already there is evidence Russian warships have left Tartus, raising questions about Russia’s commitment to its Syrian bases. As Russia navigates this crisis, it must confront the limits of its resources and the fragility of its aspirations. Great power status requires not just military might but strategic resilience. The outcome of the Syrian conflict will shape the future of Russia’s role in the evolving international order. For Moscow, the stakes could not be higher.

Andrew Latham is Professor of Political Science at Macalester College and a Non-Resident Fellow at Defense Priorities.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/14/2024 - 20:15