Individual Economists

What Is Democratic 'Legality'?

Zero Hedge -

What Is Democratic 'Legality'?

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Since 2021, the left has waged a veritable war against the American legal system in a variety of ways.

One serial target of Democrats and the Left has been the Supreme Court.

In 2020, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) spoke to an angry throng of pro-abortion protestors assembled at the very doors of the court chambers.

He threatened two of the justices, Kavanaugh and Gorsuch, by name. Schumer yelled to the volatile crowd that the justices’ views would make them “reap the whirlwind,” and the two would not know what “hit” them.

In the ensuing months, protestors mobbed some of the conservative justices’ homes—likely committing felonies. The sympathetic Biden Justice Department chose not to follow the law, and so did nothing—although eventually a would-be assassin turned up.

Joe Biden himself bragged that he would try to ignore the Supreme Court ruling banning his arbitrary cancellation of billions of dollars in student loans. Indeed, he boasted, “The Supreme Court blocked it, but that didn’t stop me.”

In response, no one on the left ever complained about endangering the “rule of law” or Biden as “a dictator.”

For three years, four local, state, and federal prosecutors warped the law to neuter Donald Trump. Most of the charges had never been brought against other political figures in similar circumstances.

The vast majority of the 93 weaponized indictments backfired on the liberal prosecutors, who had contorted the legal system for political purposes and now face their own ethical or legal quagmires.

The federal prosecutor Jack Smith belatedly reported accepting $140,000 in free legal services.

Georgia prosecutor Fani Willis was removed from the Trump case and fined, and is now under further investigation.

New York prosecutor Letitia James is now facing allegations of falsification of documents and loan fraud.

Federal immigration law prohibits the illegal entry into and residence within the United States. Yet the Biden administration deliberately violated the law by allowing somewhere between 10-12 million illegal aliens to cross the border. Thousands had criminal records.

No one on the left decried any of these various affronts to the legal system.

In polls, by overwhelming majorities—above 70 percent—the public wants the Trump administration to close the border, begin deportations, and start with criminals or those with violent histories and gang ties.

The recent deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, an illegal alien from El Salvador, to the vast majority of Americans seems to fit that profile.

Garcia entered the U.S. illegally and was later found consorting with members of M-13—a State Department-designated terrorist organization—who were selling drugs. Informants reported that he was a gang member. His own tattoos likely confirm those accusations.

Two prior immigration judges found such evidence sufficient to allow deportation proceedings. In 2019, a third judge allowed Garcia to stay temporarily, but only on the grounds that hostile gangs might harm him should he return to El Salvador.

Garcia was pulled over for speeding without a driver’s license—but with eight illegal aliens who reportedly all lived at the Garcia residence. The officer released him, despite suspicions that Garcia was engaged in human trafficking.

Garcia’s live-in girlfriend, now wife, was physically assaulted by Garcia on two occasions, suffered injuries, and initially sought restraining orders against him.

The left claims Garcia is a “Maryland man” without an arrest record.

But he is not a U.S. citizen or a legal resident of Maryland. Instead, Garcia is in legal limbo and remains what he always was—a citizen of El Salvador with gang ties and formerly residing illegally in the U.S.

Garcia is now back home on El Salvadorian soil and was mistakenly sent to a high-security prison. But his own government in El Salvador will ultimately decide how involved Garcia is or was with M-13 gangs. And then, as a sovereign nation, it will act according to its own policies about its own citizens’ associations with that terrorist organization.

The left has demanded that Garcia be returned to the U.S. He has become a cause célèbre as a purported victim of the supposedly fascist Trump. Returning Garcia is seen by leftists as a performance art-act to derail the Trump agenda, which otherwise they have neither the power nor public support to thwart.

The left also ignores its own hypocrisies and ironies.

Those who weaponized the court system and destroyed the border now rail that Trump is acting unlawfully by not returning an illegal alien, an M-13 member, and a domestic abuser with a propensity to ignore our laws.

How ironic that those who rail about colonialism now sound like 19th-century Yankee imperialists.

Democrats do not own El Salvador - although they act like it when dictating to its government that El Salvador cannot detain one of its own citizens on its own soil for its own reasons.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 16:40

Alphabet Surges After Easily Beating Estimates, New $70 Billion Stock Buyback

Zero Hedge -

Alphabet Surges After Easily Beating Estimates, New $70 Billion Stock Buyback

In our preview of Alphabet's Q1 earnings, we said the company was "Cheap, Room For Error, And Optimism Worst Is Over", and sure enough, the company is surging after hours after the company reported earnings that largely beat expectations across the board, including capex (with the exception of cloud which came in light on revenue but more than made up for it on profit).

Here is what the company just reported for Q1:

  • EPS $2.81 vs. $1.89 y/y, smashed estimate $2.01 (Bloomberg Consensus)
  • Revenue ex-TAC $76.49 billion, +13% y/y, beat estimate $75.4 billion
    • Total TAC $13.75 billion, +6.2% y/y, higher than estimated $13.66 billion
  • Revenue $90.23 billion, +12% y/y, beat estimate $89.1 billion
    • Google Services revenue $77.26 billion, +9.8% y/y, beat estimate $76.31 billion
    • Google advertising revenue $66.89 billion, +8.5% y/y, beat estimate $66.39 billion
    • Google Search & Other Revenue $50.70 billion, -6.2% q/q, beat estimate $50.3 billion
    • YouTube ads revenue $8.93 billion, +10% y/y, missed estimate $8.94 billion
    • Google Network Revenue $7.26 billion, -8.8% q/q, beat estimate $7.13 billion
    • Google Subscriptions, Platforms and Devices Revenue $10.38 billion, -11% q/q, beat estimate $9.91 billion
    • Google Cloud revenue $12.26 billion, +28% y/y, missed estimate $12.32 billion
    • Other Bets revenue $450 million, -9.1% y/y, missed estimate $473.9 million

  • Operating income $30.61 billion, +20% y/y, beat estimate $28.86 billion
    • Google Services operating income $32.68 billion, +17% y/y, estimate $30.42 billion
    • Google Cloud operating income $2.18 billion vs. $900 million y/y, estimate $1.94 billion
    • Other Bets operating loss $1.23 billion, +20% y/y, estimate loss $1.12 billion
  • Operating margin 34% vs. 32% y/y, beat estimate 32.3%

Number of employees 185,719, +2.7% y/y, estimate 183,718

Notably, in a time when many are expecting capex to be slashed, Alphabet's capital expenditures came in hotter than expected, at $17.2BN, up 43% YoY, and just above the median estimate of $17.1BN.

Commenting on the quarter, Sundar Pichai, CEO, said: “We’re pleased with our strong Q1 results, which reflect healthy growth and momentum across the business. Underpinning this growth is our unique full stack approach to AI. This quarter was super exciting as we rolled out Gemini 2.5, our most intelligent AI model, which is achieving breakthroughs in performance and is an extraordinary foundation for our future innovation. Search saw continued strong growth, boosted by the engagement we’re seeing with features like AI Overviews, which now has 1.5 billion users per month. Driven by YouTube and Google One, we surpassed 270 million paid subscriptions. And Cloud grew rapidly with significant demand for our solutions.”

That said, Alphabet needs to ensure momentum in its search advertising and cloud businesses in order to justify its heightened investment in the artificial intelligence race. Competition is prompting the company and its rivals to spend heavily on infrastructure, research and talent, and as noted above, While Google benefits from AI startups spending on its cloud and business tools, it’s also racing to present an answer to popular conversational AI chatbots, which consumers are beginning to think of as an alternative to using Google Search.

Google’s beginning of the answer to that threat: its “AI Overviews” and “AI Mode” in search, in which summarized responses are drafted by generative AI and highlighted ahead of Google’s web links, have seen mixed success. Meanwhile, Google’s AI changes to search have decimated traffic to independent websites across the open web. 

Tough for them, as for Alphabet, just to make sure the stock would not slump despite the solid beat, the company also announced a new $70 billion stock buyback authorization. Then again, with $75BN in LTM FCF and soaring capex, one wonders if GOOGL will soon need debt to meet all its funding needs.

GOOGL stock jumped as much as 5% after hours, precisely what the straddle implied move said it would do, rising just above $169 - the highest price since mid-March and well above its Liberation Day levels - before fading some of the gains.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 16:29

Gabbard Asks DOJ To Prosecute 2 Alleged Leakers

Zero Hedge -

Gabbard Asks DOJ To Prosecute 2 Alleged Leakers

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Two alleged intelligence community leakers have been referred to the Department of Justice (DOJ) for prosecution, according to Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard.

Gabbard said in an April 23 post on the social media platform X that besides the two already referred for prosecution, a third referral is on its way.

Gabbard wrote that “politicization of our intelligence and leaking classified information puts our nation’s security at risk and must end” and that “those who leak classified information will be found and held accountable to the fullest extent of the law.”

“These deep-state criminals leaked classified information for partisan political purposes to undermine POTUS’ agenda. I look forward to working with [the Justice Department and FBI] to investigate, terminate and prosecute these criminals,” she said.

Gabbard’s office did not respond to a request for more information, and the DOJ did not return an inquiry.

Gabbard said that the unidentified officials leaked information to The Washington Post, which had reported recently on a classified assessment of the Tren de Aragua gang that allegedly found Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is not directing the invasion of the United States.

President Donald Trump in March invoked the Alien Enemies Act, finding that Tren de Aragua, at the direction of the Venezuelan government, was invading the United States.

“The weaponization of intelligence to undermine the President’s agenda is an assault on democracy. Those behind this illegal leak of classified intelligence, twisted and manipulated to convey the exact opposite finding, will be held accountable under the full force of the law,” Gabbard said on April 21.

She said that her office “fully supports the assessment that the foreign terrorist organization, Tren De Aragua, is acting with the support of the Maduro Regime, and thus subject to arrest, detention and removal as alien enemies of the United States.”

Gabbard also said that “rooting out this politicization of intelligence is exactly what President Trump campaigned on and what Americans overwhelmingly voted for.”

Federal law states that a person who communicates, furnishes, transmits, or otherwise makes available classified information to an unauthorized person can be sentenced to up to 10 years in prison if convicted.

The DOJ announced in March that it was probing the disclosure of other intelligence concerning Tren de Aragua.

“The Justice Department is opening a criminal investigation relating to the selective leak of inaccurate, but nevertheless classified, information from the Intelligence Community relating to Tren de Aragua,” Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche said at the time.

“We will not tolerate politically motivated efforts by the Deep State to undercut President Trump’s agenda by leaking false information onto the pages of their allies at The New York Times.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 15:45

12 Signs That U.S. Consumers Are Experiencing Far More Financial Stress Than Most People Realize

Zero Hedge -

12 Signs That U.S. Consumers Are Experiencing Far More Financial Stress Than Most People Realize

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Consumer sentiment is plummeting, delinquency rates are rising, and nearly three-quarters of all U.S. consumers admit that they are “financially stressed”.  If U.S. consumers are experiencing this much pain now, what will things look like six months from today if there are empty shelves and widespread shortages

 We witnessed a brief period of severe financial stress during the early days of the last pandemic, but we would have to go all the way back to the Great Recession to find a time that is truly comparable to what we are enduring now.  U.S consumers have been getting hammered for years, and now it appears that our problems are about to go to an entirely new level.  The following are 12 signs that U.S. consumers are experiencing far more financial stress than most people realize…

#1 According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment in the United States has fallen to the second-lowest reading ever recorded

Americans are rarely this pessimistic about the economy.

Consumer sentiment plunged 11% this month to a preliminary reading of 50.8, the University of Michigan said in its latest survey released Friday, the second-lowest reading on records going back to 1952.

#2 According to a new CNBC/SurveyMonkey poll, a whopping 73 percent of U.S. consumers admit that they are “financially stressed”…

Americans are growing increasingly uneasy about the state of the U.S. economy and their own personal financial situation in the face of stubborn inflation and tariff wars.

To that point, 73% of respondents said they are “financially stressed,” with 66% of that group pointing to the tariff wars as a main source, according to a new CNBC/SurveyMonkey online poll.

The survey of 4,200 U.S. adults was conducted April 3 to 7.

#3 Approximately two-thirds of U.S. adults feel like they are “behind on their savings goals”, and half of U.S. adults believe that they will never reach their savings goals at all…

67% of Americans feel behind on their savings goals, with nearly half (47%) believing they’ll never reach their targets

#4 More than 60 percent of U.S. adults that currently have savings accounts have taken money out of them since the start of this year

63% of people with savings accounts have withdrawn money since the beginning of 2025, primarily for unexpected expenses (48%) and everyday necessities (36%)

#5 The percentage of U.S. credit card accounts that are at least 90 days past due has reached the highest level in 12 years

The percentage of credit card accounts that were at least 90 days past due hit a 12-year high in the fourth quarter of 2024.

According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, 0.90% of accounts were delinquent, the most since the Fed bank began its report.

#6 5 million student loan borrowers in the United States have not made a single payment in the last year, and 4 million other student loan borrowers will soon reach that status…

Of the more than 42.7 million student loan borrowers in the U.S., who owe a collective $1.6 trillion, the department says that more than 5 million have not made a payment in the past year. That number is expected to grow as an additional 4 million borrowers are approaching default status.

#7 For the first time in about 5 years, the Department of Eduction “will resume collections of its defaulted federal student loan portfolio”.  This is going to put additional financial stress on millions of U.S. households

The U.S. Department of Education today announced its Office of Federal Student Aid (FSA) will resume collections of its defaulted federal student loan portfolio on Monday, May 5th. The Department has not collected on defaulted loans since March 2020. Resuming collections protects taxpayers from shouldering the cost of federal student loans that borrowers willingly undertook to finance their postsecondary education. This initiative will be paired with a comprehensive communications and outreach campaign to ensure borrowers understand how to return to repayment or get out of default.

#8 The average credit score in the United States just dropped at the fastest pace since the Great Recession

America’s credit score just took its biggest hit since the 2008 crash.

The average FICO score in the US has dropped to 715 from 717 — the largest one-year drop since the Great Recession, according to new data from the credit-rating giant FICO.

#9 U.S. consumers are eating out less, and as a result restaurant chains all over the country are in financial distress

Once rapidly growing commercial marvels, casual dining chains — sit-down restaurants where middle-class families can walk in without a reservation, order from another human and share a meal — have been in decline for most of the 21st century. Last year, TGI Fridays and Red Lobster both filed for bankruptcy. Outback and Applebee’s have closed dozens of locations. Pizza Hut locations with actual dining rooms are vanishingly rare, with hundreds closing since 2019.

According to a February survey by the market research firm Datassential, 24 percent of Americans say they are having dinner at casual restaurants less often, and 29 percent are dining out less with groups of friends and family.

#10 U.S. consumers are visiting shopping malls a lot less than they once did, and as a result many mall retailers are going belly up

Merry Go Round, Bon-Ton, Lord & Taylor, The Limited, Loehmann’s, Bonwit Teller, Chess King, and Anchor Blue are just a few once-successful clothing retailers that no longer exist.

Now, a once-trendy fashion/clothing retailer finds itself having to make massive cuts and shut down 100s of stores in a fight to avoid bankruptcy.

#11 U.S. consumers are not spending as much money at hair salons, and Bloomberg is telling us that this is an indicator that a recession is coming

Stylists from Manhattan to rural New Hampshire are seeing regular clients start to skip cuts and blowouts. In from the Maine town of Brewer, hairstylist Alyssa Dow said customers are choosing cheaper, “more low-maintenance” looks—and tipping less. In affluent Longmeadow, Massachusetts, where “people don’t like to walk around with roots” showing, clients who previously got color every two or three weeks are stretching it to four or five, citing the “political situation” and implying they’ve lost money in the stock market, said Michelle LaValley. “They’re cutting back in other areas as well, so it’s not just us,” said the salon owner, who has 28 years in the business. The wider pullback in spending seems to go beyond the general grumpiness that accompanied the so-called vibecession that started years ago when inflation rose, interest rates spiked and yet the US kept growing.

#12 According to the Fed, U.S. consumers are becoming more concerned about inflation and unemployment…

The central bank’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that respondents saw inflation a year from now at 3.6%, an increase of half a percentage point from February and the highest reading since October 2023.

Along with concerns over a higher cost of living came a surge in worries over the labor market: The probability that the unemployment rate would be higher a year from now surged to 44%, a move up of 4.6 percentage points and the highest level going back to the early Covid pandemic days of April 2020.

Right now, economists all over the country are arguing about whether a recession is ahead of us or not.

But to millions of hard working Americans, it feels like a recession has already begun.

If you are currently experiencing financial stress, I want you to know that you aren’t alone.

Countless others are in the exact same boat, and the outlook for the months ahead is not promising at all.

*  *  *

Michael’s new  book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 14:45

North Korean Missile Used In Deadly Russian Attack On Kiev, Ukraine Claims

Zero Hedge -

North Korean Missile Used In Deadly Russian Attack On Kiev, Ukraine Claims

A Ukrainian official speaking to Reuters Thursday has claimed that the missile that killed at least nine people in a major Russian aerial attack on Kiev overnight was a North Korean KN-23 (KN-23A) ballistic missile.

A residential building, factory, and cars were set on fire in the wake of the attack, which included a number of missiles and drones. Emergency crews were digging through rubble looking for victims throughout Thursday. At least one building was simply obliterated, suffering a direct hit by a powerful warhead. 

Anton Gerashchenko, a former adviser to Ukraine's minister of internal affairs, offered as 'proof' footage which shows a fast-moving, large missile falling on the city. However, it remains anything but clear from the video precisely what kind of missile it was, much less who produced it.

"The weapon that killed at least eight people in a major Russian aerial attack on Kyiv overnight was a North Korean KN-23 (KN-23A) ballistic missile, a Ukrainian military source told Reuters on Thursday," Reuters cited.

"The missile struck a residential building in the Sviatoshynskyi district west of Kyiv's center," the unnamed source described. While it's anything but clear from mere video or photographic evidence what kind of missiles were use on Kiev overnight, Russia and North Korea's deepening defense relations have been on full display since last summer.

Not only has Pyongyang sent some 10,000 of its troops to help liberate Kursk region, but huge amounts of artillery ammo has reportedly been shipped, based on a 2024 treaty.

And last year the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) produced a report which said, "Analysis confirms that Russia used ballistic missiles produced in North Korea in its war against Ukraine. North Korean missile debris was found throughout Ukraine, according to an unclassified report released today by the Defense Intelligence Agency."

"Through careful analysis of open-source imagery, DIA analysts confirms the debris found in Kharkiv on Jan. 2, 2024 is missile debris from a DPRK short-range missile," the DIA continued in May of 2024. "The report provides a comparative analysis of publicly available images of North Korean missile debris and known North Korean missiles. The report shows that the missile debris in Ukraine is almost certainly of a North Korean ballistic missile."

BBC has picked up on the allegations that a North Korean missile was used to attack a European capital:

So US intelligence has strongly suggested that it is indeed possible Russia is using North Korean-made ballistic missiles on the Ukrainian capital. Zelensky has meanwhile used this information to say that there is an 'axis' of hostile forces and enemies of the West warring against Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 14:25

Institutions Break Up With Ethereum But Keep ETH On The Hook

Zero Hedge -

Institutions Break Up With Ethereum But Keep ETH On The Hook

Authored by Yohan Yun via CoinTelegraph.com,

Ethereum is entering one of its most precarious periods since its inception. Usage on the base layer is plummeting, core metrics are nearing multi-year lows, and even co-founder Vitalik Buterin is proposing a radical architectural overhaul. 

Institutions aren’t waiting to see how it plays out. Blockchain data shows that long-time supporters such as Galaxy Digital and Paradigm have been slashing their Ether holdings in recent weeks. 

So far in April, Ethereum’s base-layer activity has continued to collapse. Ethereum’s network fees are dropping, and inflation has been rising. Though layer-2 networks continue to develop, they’re cannibalizing the base layer’s value capture.

But the story isn’t entirely about Ethereum’s collapse. Some whales are treating this downturn as a rare buying opportunity. Even those who are selling Ether can’t fully let it go.

Ethereum gets dumped by institutions, but for how long?

Institutions are dumping Ethereum, but it’s the ex they keep checking on. It’s not entirely out of the picture — just benched while they explore options like Solana.

In recent weeks, blockchain analysts on the lookout for large crypto movements spotted several institutions moving ETH out of their tagged wallets, likely to sell. Lookonchain reported that Galaxy Digital deposited 65,600 ETH ($105.5 million) to Binance. The investment firm’s Ether exposure rose to as high as around 98,000 coins in February, but that has dropped to almost 68,000 ETH at the time of writing, Arkham data shows.

Galaxy dumps Ether, but not all of it. Source: Arkham

Galaxy’s holdings may have declined in recent weeks, but they’re still higher compared to the start of the year. Its Ether holdings reflect a broader trend seen in Ethereum-based investment products. According to CoinShares, ETH funds saw $26.7 million in outflows over the past week, bringing total outflows to $772 million over eight weeks. However, year-to-date flows remain positive, with $215 million in net inflows. 

As Galaxy trimmed its Ether holdings, it also withdrew 752,240 SOL ($98.37 million), Lookonchain reported. Ethereum lost considerable momentum to Solana, which became the chain of choice during the memecoin casino frenzy that dominated much of 2024 and early 2025. While that eventually cooled amid rampant scams, bots and low-quality tokens, it also served as a technical showcase for Solana — proving its ability to process massive transaction volumes without major fee spikes or outages.

Paradigm is another investor that has cut back on Ether. On April 21, it moved 5,500 ETH ($8.66 million) to Anchorage Digital. Paradigm transferred around 97,000 ETH (around $301.57 million) to Anchorage from January 2024, which was then moved to centralized exchanges, as onchain analyst EmberCN pointed out.

Paradigm Capital held about 236,000 ETH in 2019 but holds 2,873 ETH on April 23. Source: Arkham

“While institutional investors initially bought into the ‘ultra-sound money’ narrative, they’re now facing a reality where decreasing protocol revenue and weakening tokenomics create legitimate concerns,” Jayendra Jog, co-founder of Sei Labs, told Cointelegraph.

Ethereum returns to net inflationary state

Ether deflation has been an attractive selling point to Ethereum investors. It was integrated into the network through two major upgrades. First, the London hard fork of August 2021 introduced Ethereum Improvement Proposal 1559, which partially burns transaction fees. Then in the Merge upgrade of September 2022, Ethereum became a proof-of-stake network and drastically cut new token issuance.

Ether’s supply consistently decreased following the Merge until April 2024, when Ether’s inflation began to accelerate. By early February 2025, the total ETH supply had surpassed its Merge level.

Ether’s total supply is approximately 186,705 ETH higher than it was at the time of the Merge. Source: Ultra Sound Money

Part of Ether’s inflation has been due to dropping fees, which results in less Ether burned. According to data from IntoTheBlock, Ethereum collected 1,873.52 ETH in fees from April 14 to April 21. That’s slightly higher than the 1,697.61 ETH in fees from the week starting on March 17, which was the lowest amount of fees collected (measured in ETH) since July 31, 2017.

Ethereum base layer’s fees drop to 2017 levels. Source: IntoTheBlock

Buterin’s radical RISC-V proposal for Ethereum

On April 20, Buterin proposed the RISC-V instruction set to substitute the current Ethereum Virtual Machine contract language, aiming to improve the speed and efficiency of the network’s execution layer. Some view the proposal as a white flag on the existing architecture.

Source: Rooter

“Vitalik’s RISC-V proposal is essentially an acknowledgment that the EVM’s fundamental architecture has reached its limits. When Ethereum’s founder proposes replacing the core VM that underpins the entire ecosystem, it signals not evolution but recognition of a design limitation that can’t be incrementally improved,” Jog said.

Cointelegraph has reached out to the Ethereum Foundation and will update this article when it answers.

The proposal follows a leadership shuffling in the Ethereum Foundation following rising complaints on the project’s direction. 

Could Ethereum be the one that got away?

Part of Ethereum’s struggles has been attributed to its rollup-centric approach to scaling its network. The idea was to build layer-2 scaling networks that would offload the transactions from the base chain but still utilize its security. That has alleviated congestion issues during times of high network demand but has also created new problems of its own, such as dropping Ether burns and fragmentation of the Ethereum ecosystem.

But there is an increased focus on layer-1 scaling, according to Tomasz Stańczak, the new co-executive director of the Ethereum Foundation. Stańczak said on X that the Ethereum Foundation will shift its focus to near-term goals, such as layer-1 scaling and layer-2 scaling support.

Source: Tomasz Stańczak

Some whales have taken advantage of Ethereum’s cheaper price tag. On April 23, Lookonchain identified two wallets accumulating millions of dollars worth of ETH. The blockchain monitor identified another wallet on April 22 that has accumulated over $100 million in ETH since Feb. 15. Ether is currently down from the plus-$4,000 it reached in December but rose over 10% on April 23 to over $1,800

In a recent client letter, Standard Chartered Bank slashed its 2025 price estimate for Ether from $10,000. However, for whales accumulating at current levels, upside potential remains, as the bank still predicts a year-end target of $4,000.

Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital assets research, attributed the more cautious outlook to Ethereum’s structural decline, noting that the layer-2 networks designed to improve scalability are now extracting much of the fee revenue once captured by the base layer.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 14:05

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 8.1% Year-over-year due to Easter Timing

Calculated Risk -

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 19 April
As expected due to the Easter and Passover holidays, the U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 19 April. ...

13-19 April 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

Occupancy: 61.4% (-8.1%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$158.00 (-1.3%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$97.06 (-9.3%)
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Hotel Occupancy RateClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking below both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will mostly move sideways until the summer travel season.  We will likely see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

Ugly, Tailing 7Y Auction Sees Lowest Foreign Demand In Over 3 Years

Zero Hedge -

Ugly, Tailing 7Y Auction Sees Lowest Foreign Demand In Over 3 Years

The week's last coupon auction is in the books, and perhaps because people are just tired of dealing with the non stop headline ping pong, it was also the ugliest.

The sale of $44BN in 7Y paper priced at a high yield of 4.123%, down 11bps from March and tailing the When Issued 4.121% by 0.2bps; this was the second straight tail and follows 6 consecutive stop throughs.

The bid to cover was largely unchanged from last month, printing at 2.55, up from 2.53 in March but below the six-auction average of 2.67.

But it was the internals where once again all the action was: While Directs were a high 25.44%, but not abnormally high, and in fact the number was down from 26.1% last month, it was once again Indirects that was the weakest link: foreign buyers took down just 59.3% of the full allotment, down from 61.2% in March and the lowest since December 2021. Dealers were left holding 15.3%, which actually was the highest going back all the way to May 2024.

Overall, this was a rather weak auction, not just the tail but more ominously, the continued decline in foreign demand. The flip side, of course, is that if Indirects really collapse the Fed will have no choice but to step in and start monetizing coupons. All it will need is an excuse, and at a time when Powell is feuding with Trump why the Fed should not step in, the outcome will likely be quite hilarious.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 13:28

Judge Halts Order Demanding Details On Efforts To Return Abrego Garcia To US

Zero Hedge -

Judge Halts Order Demanding Details On Efforts To Return Abrego Garcia To US

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The federal judge overseeing the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, an immigrant deported to his home country despite a court order, has paused her order demanding details on the U.S. government’s efforts to facilitate his return to the United States.

U.S. District Judge Paula Xinis on April 23 paused her order for one week. She did not detail the rationale behind the pause but wrote that it was entered “with the agreement of the parties.”

Lawyers for Abrego Garcia, an immigrant from El Salvador, and the government did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Xinis previously ordered the government to facilitate the return of Abrego Garcia to the United States. When the government declined to provide details, she ordered officials to file daily updates with the court on its efforts.

The judge had also granted the plaintiff’s request for expedited discovery on the matter, including the terms of the agreement the United States reached with the Salvadoran government to house immigrants deported from America.

Xinis on Tuesday said that the U.S. government needed to address outstanding discovery requests, finding that the Trump administration has shown a “willful and bad faith refusal to comply with discovery obligations.”

“For weeks, Defendants have sought refuge behind vague and unsubstantiated assertions of privilege, using them as a shield to obstruct discovery and evade compliance with this Court’s orders,” she wrote in an order.

The government then filed a motion to stay that ruling. It was filed under seal, meaning it is not available to the public.

Lawyers for Abrego Garcia filed a sealed response to the motion.

Xinis referenced both sealed filings while entering the pause.

Garcia, who illegally entered the United States in 2011, was arrested in 2019. An immigration judge concluded that evidence showed he was a member of the MS-13 gang. A different immigration judge ordered Garcia deported but also issued a withholding of removal, which prevented the U.S. government from deporting him to his home country.

Garcia continued living in the United States until he was taken into custody by immigration agents on March 12. He was soon deported to El Salvador.

U.S. officials have said that the deportation there was a mistake because the withholding order was not listed on the flight manifest. They have more recently said the deportation was allowed because MS-13 was designated a terrorist group by President Donald Trump. Lawyers for Abrego Garcia say he should not have been deported to El Salvador and that he should be brought back to the United States to be with his wife, a U.S. citizen, and children.

In their last publicly available status report, dated April 21, U.S. officials said that the Salvadoran government told them that day that Abrego Garcia is being held at the Centro Industrial penitentiary facility in Santa Ana and is “in good conditions and in an excellent state of health.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 12:40

Stocks Extend Gains After Trump Says "They" Are Having Meetings With China

Zero Hedge -

Stocks Extend Gains After Trump Says "They" Are Having Meetings With China

US equities extended their gains after President Trump told reporters that US was having daily ongoing talks with China.

"Well, they had a meeting this morning... we may reveal it later, but they had meetings this morning, and we've been meeting with China."

Trump added, when asked for more details:

"...it doesn't really matter who 'they' are."

This lifted Nasdaq to a 2.5% gain on the day...

The S&P is at a key technical resistance level once again...

...and has rallied above the first CTA buy trigger:

  • Short term: 5595

  • Med term: 5775

  • Long term: 5479

If it closes here, we could start seeing cascade of chasing higher.

How long until China denies... again?

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 12:38

Trump To Go After Democrat Fundraising Juggernaut ActBlue In Presidential Memorandum: Report

Zero Hedge -

Trump To Go After Democrat Fundraising Juggernaut ActBlue In Presidential Memorandum: Report

President Trump is expected to sign a presidential memorandum on Thursday targeting major Democrat online donation platform, ActBlue - specifically cracking down on foreign contributions in American elections, Politico reports, citing a person Trump admin leaker familiar with the policy.

Photo: Alexander Grey/Unsplash; ActBlue

The crackdown is expected to involve Attorney General Pam Bondi's office.

Related:

According to Elon Musk, "ActBlue is currently under investigation for allowing foreign and illegal donations in criminal violation of campaign finance regulations. This week, 7 ActBlue senior officials resigned, including the associate general counsel."

For starters, ActBlue did not require a card verification value (CVV) for donations, according to Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), chairman of the House Administration Committee, who sent letters and information collected over the past year to Texas, Virginia, Arkansas, Florida, and Missouri for further investigation into ActBlue.

“The final analysis produced a set of anomalous donor profiles, ranked by the severity of the inconsistencies. In reviewing this analysis, it became clear there is suspicious activity occurring that warrants further review,” the letter stated. 

In December 2023, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton opened an investigation into ActBlue alleging the platform "may enable fraud," and that "straw donations" were systematically being made using false identities through untraceable payment methods.

Paxton said in an Aug. 8 statement ActBlue has cooperated with the Texas investigation and will now require CVV codes for credit card contributions.

ActBlue targets small-dollar donations, the Hill first reported, and has been an integral part of the Democratic fundraising structure, collecting an estimated $1.5 billion from about 7 million donors.

While that influx of cash was split among nearly 19,000 campaigns, an excessive amount has gone to the highest profile races. In just the first few days of the Harris campaign, for example, donors gave her $200 million through the platform, per ActBlue’s account on the social platform X, the Hill reported. -Fox News

In his letter to attorneys general, Steil said whistleblowers reported “anomalies” in Federal Election Commission donor records.

That prompted a data analysis of records spanning 14 years, which looked for suspicious trends by comparing donation patterns to open-source consumer data, voter rolls, and political profiling databases.

The ensuing investigation included consultations with the election commission, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, and the Office of Foreign Assets Control, according to Steil’s letter.

Findings included donations that were significantly disproportionate to a person’s net worth or previous giving history; uncharacteristic donations from party-affiliated registered voters that suddenly contributed to candidates of the opposing party; and unusually frequent donations from the elderly and first-time donors.

Similar concerns were raised in March 2023 by O'Keefe Media Group, which reported that some senior citizens in Maryland and elsewhere denied making the donations attributed to them in Federal Election Commission records.

Donors contacted by O'Keefe Media Group said they made political contributions to ActBlue but had no knowledge of making what amounted to thousands of donations—with some totaling more than $200,000—in a few years.

In December, Steil announced that documents turned over by ActBlue showed that the company had implemented new policies to "automatically reject donations that use foreign prepaid/gift cards, domestic gift cards, are from high-risk/sanctioned countries, and have the highest level of risk as determined," but said there "is still more work to be done."

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 12:20

Trump Says Could Meet Putin 'Shortly After' Upcoming Middle East Trip

Zero Hedge -

Trump Says Could Meet Putin 'Shortly After' Upcoming Middle East Trip

President Donald Trump has said he could meet with Russia's Vladimir Putin shortly after his upcoming trip to the Middle East in May, where's he expected to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

The Gulf tour, set for May 13 through the 16th, will be the first such Mideast trip of Trump's second term. TASS reported this week, "In March, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov told TASS that Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin could meet in Saudi Arabia at some point."

Via Reuters

While there are no clear, concrete plans for this, Trump was asked by reporters Wednesday about the possibility of talks with Putin while in Saudi Arabia. 

That's when Trump responded, "It’s possible, but most likely not. I think we’ll meet with him shortly thereafter." But he didn't offer any details of when or where this could happen.

US special envoy Steven Witkoff has also recently suggested Saudi Arabia as a venue for a potential future Trump-Putin meeting.

The Kremlin has welcomed Trump administration suggestions that Ukraine finally give up claims to Crimea. Trump addressed Zelensky in a Wednesday social media statement and said "Crimea was lost years ago" and that he should face reality and give it up for the sake of peace.

Putin's office responded by saying, "This fully corresponds with our understanding and with what we have been saying for a long time."

But Trump had some strong words for Moscow on Thursday, following a deadly overnight Russian ballistic missile and drone attack on Kiev, which killed at least ten people.

"I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV," Trump posted on Truth Social. "Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP! 5000 soldiers a week are dying. Lets get the Peace Deal DONE!"

The Kremlin has laid out that it is willing to stop the finding, and that peace can be achieved if Ukrainian forces exit the four annexed territories of the East. 

Zelensky has shown no signs that he's willing to do this, also as he's citing the national constitution to say that not even Crimea can legally be given up. At this point, any earlier progression toward peace appears stalled. Can a Putin-Trump face to face meeting lead to a breakthrough?

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 11:40

Fake It Till Trump Makes It

Zero Hedge -

Fake It Till Trump Makes It

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Fake it till Trump makes it

Markets were thrilled this week as Bloomberg reported US Treasury Secretary Bessent saying 145% US tariffs on China were “unsustainable” and a trade deal would be done soon; yet people *in the room* say that didn’t capture his real message - that China would see *it* needed to move first. Markets were just as excited by President Trump saying those tariffs would come down “substantially” but missed the context that this was *after a deal*, not as a unilateral US step.    

The Wall Street Journal caused another market surge in reporting ‘White House Considers Slashing China Tariffs to De-Escalate Trade War: Levies could be cut by more than half in some cases although Trump hasn’t yet made final decision’. Within hours, one of the authors tweeted: “UPDATE: Admin official said Trump wouldn’t act unilaterally and would need to see action from China. People close to admin said Trump has plenty of room to cut tariffs without changing overall picture. “It would be kind of a pressure valve release without actually doing anything.”” The original headline was still up at time of writing over 12 hours later.

The Financial Times claims Trump’s “latest retreat” is on auto tariffs. An hour later, the president denied it. Again, the story was still up unchanged at time of writing.

Bloomberg this morning has the top headline “New Rate – Trump: China May Get New Tariff Rate Soon.” If you listen to what he said, he’s negotiating with 90 countries, and those that strike deals in the next 2-3 weeks will get a lower rate, while those that don’t will get one imposed… and China could be in either camp, the implication being it depends on what *it* does.

Moreover, not being reported prominently at all in the financial press, Bessent gave a speech at the IIF yesterday in which he stated, “Everywhere we look across the international system today, we see imbalance… My goal… is to outline a blueprint to restore equilibrium to the global financial system and the institutions designed to uphold it.” While he stressed, “America First does not mean America alone”, he made clear the US seeks “expanded leadership in international institutions like the IMF and the World Bank… to restore fairness to the international economic system [which faces] the stark reality of large and persistent US deficits as a result of an unfair trading system,” a status quo which is, “not sustainable for the US, and ultimately,… not sustainable for other economies.” 

He said the US is eager to work with the IMF and World Bank, “so long as they can stay true to their missions. And under the status quo, they are falling short… We must make the IMF the IMF again[It] must be a brutal truth-teller and not just to some members. Today, the IMF has been whistling past the graveyard. Its 2024 external sector report was entitled, “Imbalances Receding.” This Pollyannaish outlook is symptomatic of an institution more dedicated to preserving the status quo than answering the hard questions. Here in the US, we know we need to get our fiscal house in order… but we will not abide the IMF failing to critique the countries that most need it, principally surplus countries… the IMF needs to call out countries like China that have pursued globally distorted policies and opaque currency practices for many decades.” 

Bessent also said the World Bank “should no longer expect blank cheques for vapid, buzzword-centric marketing accompanied by half-hearted commitments to reform… Treating China, the second-largest economy in the world, as a developing country is absurd.”

In Q&A, he underlined the US wants to work with China to help it shift to consumption as it moves back to manufacturing: but if China won’t … join, or decouple, the dots. He welcomed European defence spending but laughed at the Euro being a global reserve currency, wishing them well with the consequences that would come with it on top of the appreciation just seen. He also stressed, “I think Wall Street can continue doing well. But I think it’s Main Street’s turn to share in the prosperity,” implying he wants more lending by smaller banks to make the latter happen.

Elsewhere, Secretary of State Rubio was singing the same tune, the Defence Secretary from his, as the US Trade Representative has just done too, hammering home the US point from all sides.

In short, as central bank “Think of the asset prices!” control of markets is replaced by economic statecraft “Think of the national security!” control of the economy, we are seeing normative financial journalism determined to fake-it-till-Trump-makes-it what they want it to be - “because markets again.” 

Yes, the White House worries about markets. If things get ugly enough, they offer a verbal carrot. No, Trump is not faking it, and he did not just fold. The US grand macro strategy is not changing. As wiser heads at the Wall Street Journal note, ‘Markets Think They Hold All the Cards Over Trump’, before adding, “The plunge in stocks, bonds, and the dollar matter to Trump. But there’s no assurance that he will be ruled by them.”

Yet with a de facto US-China trade embargo in place, the US economy could see shortages on shelves within weeks and/or of price rises; and even if there is a tariff U-turn, logistics would then be overwhelmed, true even if the Fed’s Beige Book overnight was typically beige in capturing those emergent risks. That’s as fake-it-till-Trump-makes-it MAGA thinking that a stronger US dollar would provide offset to any tariffs falls far short of reality. That might see some movement.

However, even a 60% tariff for China would mean the maximalist US position previously seen as unthinkable would be celebrated with relief. Moreover, those sneering at US assets as ‘uninvestable’ don’t see that these scarring experiences also mean real economy firms are scrambling to set up new supply chains in the US or outside China and will continue to do so even if tariffs go to 60% - when markets will be rallying while missing the longer-term big picture. Nobody in manufacturing assumes this goes away via a debunked Bloomberg, WSJ, or Financial Times headline. Where supply chains sit 3 to 5 years from now is open to question. Wheeling and dealing is thus underway:

  • 12 US states have sued Trump, saying tariffs have "brought chaos to the American economy.” They may bring chaos to a US constitution that only exists due to unity over the need for tariffs.
  • As allegations of China’s support for Russia emerge, the European Parliament is in the ‘final stages’ of talks with China to remove sanctions on it: apparently “free trade” trumps all for some. Good luck with that, as Bessent would likely say with a smile.
  • The US has made a final peace offer to Ukraine --which gets security guarantees from Europe only, and the potential ability to join the EU, not NATO-- and to Russia --which gets to keep most of what it’s taken for sanctions relief and US energy cooperation-- or it will walk away. Ukraine, supposedly to sign a minerals deal today again, has perhaps has already rejected it.
  • The US is reportedly telling Iran it will process nuclear fuel for it under a new deal, again bringing it in from the cold on sanctions. If it doesn’t agree, does the US opt for JCPOA 2.0, and then expanded Abraham Accords and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, or war?
  • In response to a terror attack in Kashmir, India has cancelled visas for all Pakistanis; closed the border crossing; suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, which Pakistan has in the past stated could amount to an act of war; and rumours fly of possible Indian military action.
  • The ex-head of the WEF allegedly fiddled with the organisation’s Global Competitiveness Index ratings -- the data were faked by Schwab while the WEF were making it -- as well as engaging in financial and moral impropriety; and
  • The UK has decided to approve attempts to dim the sun to control climate change within weeks: it’s called British summer. Really – on both fronts. 

What a year 2025 is proving to be.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 11:20

Why Macro Forecasting Is So Hard Impossible

The Big Picture -

 

 

Let us stop for a moment to consider all that is going on with the new administration’s new economic trade policies at ~100 days.

There is a new tariff policy that is (by design) threatening the pre-existing global trade order. This has led to what looks like the early stages of capital flight, as both the dollar and US Treasuries have been sold off. The implications of this are significant. That is before we get to other issues with economic long-term ramifications.1

I have no idea how these policies will play out. My current (wishful) thinking is that this will not be worse than COVID-19 or the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), but less fun than 2023 and 2024 SPX gains of 25%. Maybe that idea will be proven wrong.

Let’s get more granular:

Most of the time, we have a fairly good understanding of the basic building blocks of our world. We all have a routine we go through, getting up each day, getting dressed, going to work or school or whatever, occupies the vast majority of our time. We assume a high probability that today will look like yesterday or tomorrow.

Sometimes, a minor curveball gets thrown our way. You’re driving to an appointment and a road is closed because a storm knocked a tree over or a water main pipe burst. It takes our brains a moment or two to contextualize the disruption, calculate an alternative route, and head on our way. That’s an easy problem to recognize and fix. It is also relatively simple. There are (usually) multiple routes between any two random points, and the map in your brain can easily manage it.

Most problems are like that. Where we run into problems is when there is either only one possible solution, or so many variables as to the potential solutions are nearly infinite.

Centre Island is a lovely neighborhood 6 minutes drive from my house. It has literally one road in and out. Sure, you can swim, paddle board or jetski to and from, but not with the entire fam. If that road is out, you are going to have major issues.

At the other end of the spectrum are things like global trade — large complex interrelated economies, driven by everything from policy to consumer sentiment, geography, innovation, employment, inflation, natural resources, etc. This is why I keep discussing why forecasting market prices or macroeconomic data is so challenging: There are simply too many variables, each dependent and reflective of even more variables, to pretend we truly know what comes next.

Forecasting the NCAA college basket playoffs is much easier than trying to accurately predict the global economy. It did take a decade, but someone kinda won Warren Buffett’s $1 million NCAA Tournament bracket challenge.2 To be fair, they “only” picked 31 of the 32 first-round games correctly. The odds of predicting a perfect bracket are mind boggling:

 

With the NCAA, there are only 64 teams you need to track. There are 195 Countries, 3450 publicly traded U.S. companies, over 50,000 non-U.S. publicly traded firms, millions of CEOs/CFOs, tens of millions of private companies, billions of consumers — all making independent, yet highly interrelated decisions every single day.

Project that out 365 days — what are the odds of getting that correct?

I always try to remember this, especially when I see a pundit telling me what is going to happen next…

You have to be able to pull yourself out of the day-to-day noise and remember why you are putting capital at risk in the markets. The daily news flow, upgrades and downgrades, corporate guidance, and back and forth is not the reason.

Or as John C. Bogle liked to say, “The stock market is a giant distraction from the business of investing.”

 

 

 

 

Previously:
What Are the Best & Worst-Case Tariff Scenarios? (April 15, 2025)

The Consequences of Chaos (April 7, 2025)

7 Increasing Probabilities of Error (February 24, 2025)

Tune Out the Noise (February 20, 2025)

 

 

 

__________

1. e.g., Executive orders on deportation, fighting Universities, threatening law firms, due process, Greenland, and the one that matters a great deal to the financial markets, who is the Federal Reserve Chairman….

2. “In 2014, he launched a $1 billion challenge to any Berkshire Hathaway employee who could correctly predict every single game in the NCAA Tournament. The odds of that are … extremely long. No one was able to claim the prize. Over time, the contest rules shifted. In 2016, the challenge was reportedly amended, offering $1 million to any employee who could predict the first 48 games correctly. Still, no one managed to claim the grand prize. The rules relaxed even further in 2025, as employees had to correctly predict 30 of the first 32 games in order to take home the grand prize, according to the Wall Street Journal.”

 

The post Why Macro Forecasting Is <strike>So Hard</strike> Impossible appeared first on The Big Picture.

Peace Will Be Achieved When Ukraine Withdraws From 4 Annexed Territories: Peskov

Zero Hedge -

Peace Will Be Achieved When Ukraine Withdraws From 4 Annexed Territories: Peskov

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has filled in a little bit more of the details in the wake of a Financial Times report issued Tuesday which said President Putin is offering to freeze the current battle lines for the sake of a peace deal.

The significant concession came as a surprise to many, who asked what's the catch. Peskov in Wednesday comments filled in the missing information, stressing that peace can be achieved if Ukrainian forces fully withdraw from territory in the four oblasts Moscow annexed in 2022.

Via AFP

Financial Times wrote that "The proposal is the first formal indication Putin has given since the war’s early months three years ago that Russia could step back from its maximalist demands to end the invasion."

Peskov in the fresh statement emphasized that Russia's claim to the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia remain enshrined in its constitution.

He was asked directly whether a Ukrainian withdrawal would end the war, to which he responded, "If Ukraine withdraws its troops from these four regions, then yes."

"According to the results of the referendums, these territories have entered the administrative borders of Russia. From our point of view, this is a de jure and de facto situation," Peskov said.

But so far Zelensky hasn't even been willing to cede Crimea, despite the Russian-speaking population of the strategic peninsula long being firmly in Russian hands, also with its naval Black Sea fleet being stationed there since Soviet Times and throughout recent history.

President Trump said Wednesday that Ukraine "lost" Crimea years ago, and so it is "not even a point of discussion". But Washington's demands that Ukraine finally compromise on the issue has been rejected by Zelensky.

Peskov commented on this too, expressing total agreement with Trump. "This completely corresponds with our understanding, which we have been saying for a long time," he said.

Via DW

If the Ukrainian government did finally accede to Russia's demands, it would lose 20% of its total territory, given this is about how much Russian forces currently occupy.

The US is also said to currently be offering Ukrainian neutrality vis-a-vis NATO, alongside international recognition of Crimea as Russian territory. But talks have still not gotten off the ground, and the Trump admin is ramping up the pressure on Zelensky especially.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 11:00

Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY

Excerpt:
Sales in March (4.02 million SAAR) were down 5.9% from the previous month and were 2.4% below the February 2024 sales rate. This was the 2nd consecutive month with a year-over-year decline, following four consecutive months with a year-over-year increases in sales.
...
Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

Existing Home Sales Year-over-yearThe fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Sales decreased 2.4% year-over-year compared to March 2024.
There is much more in the article.

New Poll Data Confirms The Democrats' Worst Fears

Zero Hedge -

New Poll Data Confirms The Democrats' Worst Fears

Authored by Matt Margolis via PJMedia.com,

Can you believe it? The Democrats, once the supposed champions of the working class, have exposed themselves as nothing more than elitist snobs who couldn't care less about real Americans. Recent polling has confirmed what conservatives have known all along: the Democratic Party is now the domain of overeducated, snobby, wealthy liberals who look down on anyone who doesn't share their "enlightened" worldview.

Remember when Democrats at least pretended to care about the working class? Those days are long gone, replaced by a woke agenda that caters to the most unhinged elements of society. Now, they're more interested in slobbering over MS-13 gangbangers than addressing the real concerns of everyday Americans.

Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik didn’t sugarcoat the situation during a conversation with Mark Halperin on 2WAY. The latest poll numbers, he explained, confirm what many on the Left have feared for months: the Democratic Party is in serious trouble. In a blunt, unflinching analysis, Sosnik laid out a series of hard truths that paint a grim picture of the party’s standing with American voters and underscore just how deep the erosion has become.

First, Sosnik pointed to the seismic shift in party affiliation. 

“The electorate in 2024 was 6% less Democratic than compared to four years ago,” Halperin noted, asking if that level of movement was historically significant. Sosnik didn’t mince words: “The shift is significant, but more importantly… I can’t remember the last time that people who voted on Election Day — the majority, uh, plurality of them — were Democrats.” He continued, “It shows a real erosion for the Democratic Party,” noting that many of the Democrats who backed Biden in 2020 simply didn’t show up this time around.

That drop-off was made even more glaring when coupled with the latest favorability ratings.

“Lowest net favorable rating since the ’90s,” Halperin remarked, prompting Sosnik to outline a trifecta of disasters driving the collapse in support: inflation, immigration, and cultural arrogance.

On the economic front, Sosnik admitted, “We had the worst inflation in America since the early 1980s.” 

He added that by the time Election Day arrived, “everything… was on average 20% higher than when Biden took office.” That kind of economic pain, Sosnik argued, doesn’t just dent a party; it shatters its credibility.

But the damage didn’t stop there. 

Immigration, Sosnik said, became both a practical problem and a symbol.

“There’s a concern that people, uh, for their own personal… safety and security… the immigration issue was sort of both a real problem for Democrats, but also… a proxy for just a general sense that there was a lawlessness with a Democratic administration.” That perception of disorder extended into the cities, where “these big cities around America that were largely… governed by Democrats” seemed unable — or unwilling — to maintain control."

Then came the cultural disconnect, the sense that Democrats had abandoned everyday Americans in favor of elite ideologies.

“A lot of people in America in the middle of the country thought Democrats were looking down on them,” Sosnik said bluntly. He attributed part of that disconnect to “how they talked, issues they cared about, all the DEI programs.” The result? A broadening sense among voters that Democrats “weren’t competent to govern.”

Taken together, the conversation was less a diagnosis than an autopsy. The Democrats aren’t just facing a messaging problem; they’re grappling with a wholesale rejection from swaths of the electorate they once considered safe. The warnings have been mounting for years. Now, with favorability cratering and voters fleeing, the party is watching those warnings come to life.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 10:40

PepsiCo Prints "Rare" Earnings Miss As Volatility & Uncertainty Mount

Zero Hedge -

PepsiCo Prints "Rare" Earnings Miss As Volatility & Uncertainty Mount

It's rare for PepsiCo to miss Bloomberg Consensus earnings estimates. Still, the soda and snack giant has stumbled amid growing uncertainty surrounding the trade war and waning consumer sentiment—factors that ultimately prompted the company to lower its full-year earnings outlook.

The maker of Pepsi beverages and Frito-Lay snacks missed the consensus estimate, with Barclays analyst Lauren Lieberman calling the miss "exceedingly rare to see PEP results fall short of consensus expectations and while the miss was just 1c, we think it exemplifies just how challenging things are at the company today given in the past decade​-​plus, there's always been a way to deliver the bottom line." 

Here's a snapshot of Pepsi's 1Q25 earnings:

  • Core EPS: $1.48 (vs. $1.61 YoY), slightly below Bloomberg Consensus expectations of $1.49

  • Reported EPS: $1.33 (vs. $1.48 YoY), missed the estimate of $1.48

  • Operating Profit: $2.58B, down 4.9% YoY, missed $2.78B estimate

  • Revenue: $17.92B, down 1.8% YoY, beat $17.77B estimate

  • Organic Revenue Growth: +1.2% (vs. +2.7% YoY), above +0.53% estimate

  • Capex: $603M, below $657M estimate

  • Convenient Foods Volume: -3%

Regional Breakdown:

  • Foods North America: $6.21B

  • Latin America Foods: $1.66B

  • EMEA: $2.39B

  • International Beverages: $759M

  • PepsiCo Beverages North America: $5.88B (vs. $5.87B YoY, beat $5.83B estimate)

"As we look ahead, we expect more volatility and uncertainty, particularly related to global trade developments," CEO Ramon Laguarta stated. 

The common theme among US companies has been a reduction in or complete withdrawal of guidance (see AA) due to tariff uncertainty. Pepsi slashed its EPS outlook for the year due to mounting macroeconomic headwinds but maintained its organic revenue growth forecast and shareholder return targets.

Here's more color on the changing outlook:

  • Core EPS: Now expected to decline 3% YoY (previously expected a low-single-digit increase)

  • Core EPS (constant currency): Now flat YoY (previously expected mid-single-digit growth)

  • Organic Revenue: Still expects a low-single-digit increase

  • Tax Rate: Core annual effective tax rate expected at ~20%

  • Shareholder Returns: Still targeting ~$8.6 billion in total cash returns for the year

Goldman analysts Bonnie Herzog and Ethan Huntley, along with others, provided clients with their initial summary of the mixed earnings report, indicating a "Q1 topline beat but a slight EPS miss - FY25 EPS guide lowered given tariffs & macro pressures.

Here's more color on their take:

Investor expectations heading into PEP's Q1 print were quite low, dragged largely by ongoing concerns over the health of the consumer which have pressured consumption trends - as seen in recent scanner data trends, particularly for FLNA. And as expected, PEP's Q1 results were soft with +1.2% organic revenue growth (vs our/cons ests of +0.9%/+0.6%), though the planned timing and phasing of certain productivity initiatives weighed on core operating margins - leading to a slight EPS miss at $1.48 (vs our/FactSet cons ests of $1.50/$1.49). Further, given expected higher supply chain costs related to tariffs, elevated macroeconomic volatility, and a subdued consumer backdrop, PEP lowered its FY25 f/x neutral EPS growth to ~flat y/y (vs +MSD growth prior) but maintained its organic sales guidance of +LSD% (vs our/Visible Alpha cons ests of +2.5%/+2.3% ahead of the print). Surprisingly given the weaker dollar, PEP continues to expect a ~3pt headwind from f/x to impact reported net revenue and EPS growth and therefore expects core EPS growth of -~3% implying FY25 EPS of ~$7.92 (vs $8.16 last year, and vs our/FactSet cons est of $8.29/$8.26 into the print). Furthermore, PEP restated its financial segments this morning making it difficult to analyze their new segmented results vs expectations. However, PEP's PBNA segment delivered 1% organic sales (vs our/cons ests of +0.5%/-0.1%) and 14% operating profit growth and PEP's new PepsiCo Foods North America (PFNA, comprised of the former FLNA and QFNA) delivered -2% organic sales and -7% f/x neutral operating profit growth. While optically concerning, we think today's results could serve as a clearing event - helping to reset investor expectations at a much more realistic level. However, we expect the stock to underperform today.

Taking a step back, Q1 organic sales growth was up +1.2% (vs our/cons ests of +0.9%/+0.6%) - despite the benefits of an easier y/y compare (1Q24 organic sales growth of +2.7%, with vols -2%) - driven by healthy price/mix and relative strength internationally. As expected, the top-line growth continued to be driven by net price realization (+3% vs our +1.8% est), reflecting mgmt's continued efforts to offset inflationary cost pressures with strong revenue management actions. That said, organic volumes were under pressure, as expected, down -2% (vs our/cons ests of -0.9%/-1.5%) - and were sequentially weaker than Q4 (-1%).

By segment, PEP's PBNA segment delivered 1% organic sales (vs our/cons ests of +0.5%/-0.1%), with price mix of +2% and volumes down -1%. PFNA organic topline growth was down -2%, with price mix of +1% and volumes down -3%. Internationally, PEP's new International Beverages Franchise (IB Franchise) organic topline growth was up +7%, with healthy +5% volume growth and price mix of +2%. EMEA organic topline growth was up a solid +8%, driven by price mix of +16% with volumes -8%. Elsewhere, Latin America Foods (LatAm Foods) organic topline growth was up +3%, driven by price mix of +3% with volumes down -0.5%. Lastly, Asia Pacific Foods organic topline growth was down -1%, driven by healthy volumes of +3.5%, albeit offset by price mix (-4%). Moving down the line, gross margins were broadly flat y/y at 55.7% (vs our/cons ests of 55.8%/55.5%), while Op margins were down ~50bps y/y to 15.6% (vs our/cons ests of 15.7%/15.8%), as SG&A expenses as a % of sales were up ~60bps y/y to 40.1%. As a result, PEP delivered Q1 core f/x neutral EPS growth that was down -4% to $1.48 (vs our/cons ests of $1.50/$1.49).

Bottom Line - We maintain our Buy rating on PEP as we believe it remains well positioned given its strong brand portfolio (esp. Frito Lay) and long-term growth opportunities in Beverages, particularly given its impressive revenue growth management capabilities, its owned distribution network and superior supply chain, which ensures the right (& affordable) products are available when & where needed. Overall, we continue to believe PEP should be able to deliver sustainable average annual +MSD% organic sales growth in the next decade - despite some potential near-term headwinds.

Here's more commentary from other Wall Street desks (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Barclays (equal-weight), Lauren Lieberman

  • "It is exceedingly rare to see PEP results fall short of consensus expectations and while the miss was just 1c, we think it exemplifies just how challenging things are at the company today given in the past decade​-​plus, there's always been a way to deliver the bottom line," Lieberman writes

  • PEP's reduced annual EPS guidance reflects higher supply chain costs (tariffs); in prepared remarks, PEP also discussed upping commercial investments

  • PEP mentioned two new areas of focus for cost savings within the new Pepsi Foods North America division: "optimizing and right​-​sizing" the supply chain and the "go​-​to​-​market footprint"; increasing efficiencies in transportation & logistics

  • Both of these are "critical points" given its outsized investment in Frito over the past five years, which has generated a "disappointing ROI," according to Lieberman

JPMorgan (neutral), Andrea Teixeira

  • Expects negative stock reaction to the "sizeable net tariff impact" and macro/consumption volatility

  • It's the first time PEP misses EPS estimates in "many years"

  • Core EPS guidance lowered by a "very high magnitude" despite the company's plan to take mitigating actions

  • North America savory snacks volumes were down 4% in 1Q, worse than Teixeira's -3.5% estimate, and will likely "remain the key concern for investors as far as calling for a potential inflection given the several headwinds (low-income consumer under pressure, GLP-1, etc)"

Bloomberg Intelligence, Kenneth Shea

  • Higher-than-expected supply-chain costs related to global trade volatility were the "key factor" to 8% drop in 1Q adjusted EPS

  • Shea blames the "lingering weakness" in the PepsiCo Foods North America segment as the main reason for the EPS guidance cut

Piper Sandler (overweight), Michael Lavery

  • NA Food segment remains challenged, while organic revenue growth in international business continues to be healthy, growing 5% in the quarter, driven by beverages

  • Lavery said she expects to hear more about productivity savings progress and promotional outlook for the salty snack category on the company's earnings call

  • Also hopes to better understand what tariff assumptions are included in PEP's updated guidance

Additional headlines from the Pepsi CEO:

  • PEPSI CEO: WORKING ON 'RIGHT-SIZING' COST OF FRITO LAY PRODUCTS

  • PEPSI CEO: CONSUMERS IN CHINA, MEXICO 'HURTING A BIT'

  • PEPSI CEO ON DYE BANS: SHIFTING ENTIRE PORTFOLIO NATURAL COLORS

  • PEPSI CEO: TRANSITION TO NATURAL COLORS IN NEXT FEW YEARS

  • PEPSI CEO: EXPECTING LIMITED IMPACT IN US SNAP PROGRAM CHANGES

  • PEPSI CEO: DEVELOPING PROTEIN PRODUCTS, KEY FOR GLP-1 USERS

Proteins for GLP-1 users??

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 10:20

US Existing Home Sales Weakest March Since Great Financial Crisis

Zero Hedge -

US Existing Home Sales Weakest March Since Great Financial Crisis

Following an unexpectedly large jump in February (biggest in a year), existing home sales were expected to drop significantly in March, and they did. Existing home sales fell 5.9% MoM (considerably worse than the 3.1% MoM drop expected) reversing the upwardly revised 4.4% MoM rise in February, dragging sales down 2.4% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

This is the weakest March sales pace since 2009... and biggest MoM drop since Nov 2022.

Source: Bloomberg

The drop in sales aligns perfectly with the lagged rebound in mortgage rates, which suggests the next two months will see an improvement before weakness resumes...

Source: Bloomberg

The median sales price increased 2.7% from a year ago to $403,700, a record for the month of March and extending a run of year-over-year price gains dating back to mid-2023.

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, new and existing (median) home prices are once again identical...

Source: Bloomberg

The gain in prices largely reflected more sales activity for homes priced above $1 million, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said on a call with reporters. However, he also noted that the size of the increase was relatively mild compared to wage growth.

Prices are rising even as more inventory comes onto the market from depressed levels. The supply of previously owned homes jumped 19.8% from a year ago to 1.33 million, the most for any March since 2020.

Sales declined in all four regions from the prior month, with the biggest drops occurring in the West and South.

Sales of existing single-family homes retreated 6.4%, while sales of existing condominiums were unchanged.

Properties remained on the market for 36 days on average last month, compared with 42 days in February

Finally, while home prices are at record highs, on a 'real' inflation adjusted basis (relative to gold, we mean), they are at 12 year lows...

If you had 129 ounces of gold right now, would you swap them for a 'used' house?

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 10:11

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY

Calculated Risk -

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Receded 5.9% in March
Existing-home sales descended in March, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales slid in all four major U.S. regions. Year-over-year, sales dropped in the Midwest and South, increased in the West and were unchanged in the Northeast.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 5.9% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million in March. Year-over-year, sales drew back 2.4% (down from 4.12 million in March 2024).
...
Total housing inventory registered at the end of March was 1.33 million units, up 8.1% from February and 19.8% from one year ago (1.11 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.0-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.5 months in February and 3.2 months in March 2024.
emphasis added
Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in March (4.02 million SAAR) were down 5.9% from the previous month and were 2.4% below the February 2024 sales rate.  This was the 2nd consecutive month with a year--over-year decline, following four consecutive months with a year-over-year increases in sales. 
The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home InventoryAccording to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.33 million in March from 1.23 million the previous month.
Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory was up 19.8% year-over-year (blue) in March compared to March 2024.

Months of supply (red) increased to 4.0 months in March from 3.5 months the previous month.

As expected, the sales rate was below the consensus forecast.  I'll have more later. 

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