Final Warnings

By Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy at Rabobank

Some headlines write themselves. Tokyo has already delivered one – and likely acted on it. Tehran may be waiting for its turn. The bond market, meanwhile, could have issued another warning to the Fed. As for the long-held consensus that 2026 would bring smooth disinflation, gentle policy easing, and AI-driven multiple expansion, that narrative has been under strain for some time. Yesterday’s European inflation – and to a lesser extent growth – data did little to support it. Both US and Eurozone Q1 GDP undershot expectations even as inflation pressures persist. To be sure, central banks held their fire, but no one can say they haven’t been warned.

Start with the yen, because that's where yesterday's most audible bang came from. After Finance Minister Katayama and top FX diplomat Mimura took turns at the microphone delivering what Mimura himself called Japan's "final evacuation warning" to markets, USD/JPY collapsed from above 160 to under 156 – the largest one-day move in the dollar against the yen since December 2022.

The MOF, predictably, won't confirm. But when a currency moves three big figures in a few hours with no other catalyst, traders who've sat through previous interventions tend to recognize the fingerprints. While writing this Daily, the USD/JPY pair is coming down sharply again.

Atsushi Mimura

The bigger issue, however, is whether intervention can do more than briefly stabilize markets. Japan faces structural pressures: it is a major energy importer amid elevated oil prices, and its central bank is cautiously pursuing policy normalisation after years of ultra-loose settings. Recent spikes in government bond yields – touching multi-decade highs – highlight the risks. Authorities can resist market forces for a time, but they cannot fundamentally change them.

Speaking of which: oil. Brent traded above $125 yesterday in early European trading on yet more reporting that Washington is preparing for an extended blockade of Iran's ports and may be considering renewed military action, before being abruptly knocked lower in heavy volume – possibly, some sources suggested, by official Japanese selling alongside the yen operation. So have we arrived at the point where finance ministries are actively managing crude on the side?

What is more interesting is that they smashed oil (-$6 in seconds) first https://t.co/PHpElFAZAb pic.twitter.com/Ax00iGlLXl

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 1, 2026

In any case, oil appears to be holding on to its decline despite rising geopolitical tensions. The UAE has urged its citizens in Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq to leave “immediately,” citing deteriorating regional conditions. At the same time, sources suggest the US is completing final pre-strike preparations, including intelligence gathering on Iranian oil infrastructure. In response, Iran is reportedly planning a “dual response”: missile strikes on Gulf energy assets and US-linked bases, alongside a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz using mines and missiles. Senior US military officials have briefed President Trump on updated options for possible action against Iran. In short, multiple warnings have been issued, and the situation remains highly fluid – meaning the landscape could shift markedly over the coming days. Warnings are out.

In the Eurozone, April’s flash HICP rose to 3.0% y/y – the highest since September 2023 – driven largely by a 10.9% surge in energy prices, with inflation accelerating across Germany, France, Spain, and Italy. While the headline print was slightly below our forecast, this mainly reflected easing in core inflation, particularly services, which slowed from 3.2% to 3.0% y/y. This distinction is important. The headline signals renewed pressure, but core dynamics suggest inflation has not yet broadened into a wage‑price spiral that would warrant aggressive monetary tightening beyond limited “warning shots.” We expect Eurozone inflation to average around 3.1% in 2026, easing to 2.5% in 2027. While still above pre-war expectations – by roughly 1.7 percentage points cumulatively – this profile does not justify tightening policy into a slowing growth backdrop.

Indeed, Eurozone GDP data sharpened the inflation–growth trade-off. Q1 growth came in at just 0.1% q/q, below the 0.2%–0.3% consensus. France stagnated, Italy slowed, Germany surprised modestly to the upside at 0.3%, and Spain remained the standout at 0.6%. Importantly, most of the quarter predates the peak of the Iran-related energy shock, meaning the weakness reflects an economy already losing momentum rather than the direct impact of recent geopolitical developments (see our more in-depth take here). This suggests Q2 is likely to be similarly weak – or weaker in underlying terms – and implies that the ECB’s prior growth projections were already too optimistic before the latest shock. Our forecasts see Eurozone growth slowing from 1.5% in 2025 to 0.6% this year, followed by a modest recovery to 0.9% in 2027.

Against this backdrop, the ECB left rates unchanged at 2%, as widely expected. The decision itself was uneventful; the message was not. The Governing Council acknowledged that “upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have intensified,” with President Lagarde describing the outcome as “an informed decision on the basis of yet-insufficient information.” That phrasing suggests the decision was finely balanced, with some policymakers inclined to move – a message that also came through via ‘sources’ shortly after the press conference had ended.

Our ECB watcher Bas van Geffen characterises this as a “June or never” moment – and the uncertainty embedded in that phrase is key. Hawks still have a window to push for tightening, but it is narrowing. Earlier in the month, markets had priced in multiple hikes, driven by inflation concerns, yet that urgency has since faded. Financial conditions have remained orderly: spreads are contained, equities resilient, and no disorderly market reaction has emerged to compel ECB action. In that environment, the burden of proof shifts to those advocating a hike. 

Our base case remains a 25bp increase in June, taking the deposit rate to 2.25%. June offers fresh staff projections and another month of data, making it the natural decision point. However, if the ECB does not act then, the case for tightening weakens materially. By July, energy pass-through should be near its peak, and evidence of second-round effects – if present – should be clearer. Absent such evidence, the argument for higher rates loses traction. A key condition for a June pause, however, would be a meaningful easing in energy prices, implying improvement in Middle East tensions – something not evident at present. The ECB, for its part, cannot be accused of failing to signal these risks.

Across the Channel, the Bank of England struck an “Alert but careful” tone, also holding rates steady. Governor Bailey described the stance as an “active hold,” balancing persistent inflation risks against growing concerns over employment and activity. While the BoE reiterated that it stands “ready to act as necessary,” both the minutes and Bailey’s remarks suggested reluctance to move prematurely. An overload of scenarios and caveats provided limited forward guidance. That said, we expect more Monetary Policy Committee members to lean toward tightening in June. Ultimately, how far that shift goes will depend heavily on developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the extent to which higher energy costs feed through into broader inflation.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 10:10

Medicaid Withholds Additional $91 Million In Funding For Minnesota

Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,

In his latest action targeting Minnesota fraud, Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, said his agency would delay paying $91 million in Medicaid claims to the state.

“This is about protecting patients and respecting taxpayers,” Oz said in a video posted April 30 on X, announcing the decision.

The money being withheld includes “$76 million tied to 14 service categories highly vulnerable to fraud,” Oz wrote on X. The remaining deferred payments—$14 million—could potentially have been directed “towards illegal immigrants who weren’t supposed to be getting this coverage,” he stated in the video.

The most recent amounts are on top of an initial $259 million the agency halted in February amid the North Star State’s ongoing fraud scandals.

Minnesota sued Oz’s agency and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services over that decision, but earlier this month a federal court refused to unfreeze the funds as the litigation continues.

Oz said he notified Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and other state officials before going public with his most recent decision. The Epoch Times sought comment from Walz but received no reply prior to publication.

Minnesota’s fraud scandals drew widespread attention in late 2025. Since then, President Donald Trump has ratcheted up fraud investigations across the nation. Trump appointed Vice President JD Vance to head an anti-fraud task force and the Justice Department formed a National Fraud Enforcement Division.

Oz’s new Minnesota funding freeze comes two days after agents raided 22 Minnesota sites in connection with fraud investigations.

The state’s issues with the defrauding of its public programs follow “a pattern we can’t ignore,” Oz said.

“Minnesota’s Medicaid program has shown serious vulnerabilities to fraud,” Oz wrote. “These are not isolated breakdowns—they point to systemic issues that must be addressed.”

The federal government funds roughly half of Medicaid, he wrote, which gives his agency “the authority and the responsibility to ensure those dollars are spent legally and appropriately.”

Medicaid will refuse to pay “bad bills,” he said, adding that Minnesota is therefore being asked to provide more documentation to justify payment of the requested funds. “When something doesn’t look right, we investigate; it’s our job.”

Oz said his agency is providing “as much support as we can” to help Walz “turn this around.”

Earlier this year, following months of nationwide attention on Minnesota’s fraud-plagued programs, Walz asked state lawmakers to enact what he called “a comprehensive anti-fraud package.”

In an April 17 newsletter, Minnesota Rep. Kristin Robbins, who chairs the state’s anti-fraud legislative committee, said she remains concerned that officials with two key state agencies have continued to testify that “they don’t think anyone who fails to do their job will be fired.”

“Instead, they talked about how they will provide additional training and support,” Robbins said.

Robbins is running as a Republican gubernatorial candidate to replace Walz, who withdrew his reelection bid amid the scandals. She wrote that she supports a few of Walz’s fraud-prevention ideas, including upgrading computer systems that are used to verify eligibility for government benefits. She also agrees with Walz that the time limits for prosecuting fraud crimes should be extended beyond the current six years. Walz proposed a one-year extension, Robbins said, but she proposed a bill calling for an additional four years so that prosecutors could move forward with charges a decade after the alleged offenses.

“The most important element in preventing fraud is creating a no fraud, no excuses culture,” Robbins wrote.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 09:30

Roblox Shares Crash As Engagement Headwinds Blindside Wall Street

Online gaming platform Roblox crashed the most in four years in premarket trading to the tune of 24%, after the company reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter user metrics and slashed its full-year bookings outlook.

One of the major problems plaguing Roblox has been that new child-safety features, including age-verification requirements and limits on platform communication, have slowed user growth.

Daily active users came in at 132 million, missing the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of 143.8 million, while hours engaged also missed estimates.

Here's a snapshot of first-quarter results (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Daily active users 132 million, estimate 143.8 million (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Bookings $1.7 billion, estimate $1.73 billion

• Hours engaged 31 billion, estimate 33.68 billion

• Revenue $1.4 billion, estimate $1.42 billion

• Loss per share 35c vs. loss/shr 32c y/y, estimate loss/shr 40c * Free cash flow $596 million, estimate $564.5 million

Despite the user and bookings misses, free cash flow exceeded Bloomberg Consensus estimates, coming in at $596 million versus expectations of $564.5 million.

Second-quarter forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Sees bookings $1.55 billion to $1.61 billion, estimate $1.88 billion

• Sees revenue $1.39 billion to $1.45 billion, estimate $1.45 billion

• Sees consolidated net loss $242 million to $257 million, estimate loss $253 million

And full-year forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Sees bookings $7.33 billion to $7.60 billion, saw $8.28 billion to $8.55 billion, estimate $8.38 billion

• Sees revenue $5.87 billion to $6.14 billion, saw $6.02 billion to $6.29 billion, estimate $6.6 billion

• Sees consolidated net loss $1.04 billion to $1.18 billion, saw loss $1.14 billion to loss $1.30 billion, estimate loss $1.15 billion

Goldman analyst Eric Sheridan offered clients his first take on the earnings:

In its Q1 '26 earnings report, Roblox (RBLX) management framed a few key themes: 1) the rollout of age verification resulted in larger than expected engagement headwinds during the quarter – with management framing decreased communication (in-game chat) within experiences as having a likely impact on App Store ratings (and driving headwinds to organic user acquisition); 2) on the back of engagement headwinds, paired with the exit from Russia, Q1 DAUs underperformed relative to GS/Street expectations – and is now expected to continue to decline on a sequential basis during Q2'26; 3) positive commentary surrounding US O18 DAUs – with the cohort growing 40%+ YoY (vs. overall UCAN DAU growth of 17% YoY during Q1); & 4) an emphasis on scaling out novel experiences – with mgmt. supporting the rollout of novel game creation through an increase in targeted DevEx rates, & the announcement of several creator programs (incl. Roblox Jumpstart & Incubator).

In total, Roblox management initiated and implemented a series of long-term structural changes (which should be positive for long-term platform health and growth), including a lowered 2026 guidance for bookings & Adj. EBITDA, but by doing so, the company must now rebuild investor confidence in the building blocks toward its long-term goals of scaling to 10%+ market share in the US/global gaming content market while also navigating increased regulatory scrutiny on user safety.

Over the coming quarters, we believe that further visibility into user growth (acquisition & retention), and engagement heading into 2H will likely be needed for investors to gain confidence around the long-term growth algorithm of RBLX. To be more pointed, this is unlikely to be a one quarter recovery story – we think additional visibility into the navigation past tougher comps in 2H 2026 and the trajectory of 2027+ operating margins will be critical for forward operating estimates and a truer measure of valuation multiples aligned with growth outcomes. That said, at current share price levels, the valuation skew on the shares leaves us constructive on the stock.

While this reset in expectations is difficult, we view Roblox mgmt as reiterating its long-term goals surrounding: 1) compounded forward bookings growth of 20%+; 2) the potential for increased user monetization on the back of a number of initiatives (optimized and dynamic pricing in emerging markets, scaling of Novel games, etc.); & 3) a scaling Adj. EBITDA margin in 2027+ on the back of fixed cost leverage – even when including DevEx increases.

We reiterate our Buy rating on the shares and update our forward operating estimate for this set of earnings results & mgmt commentary and adjust our 12-month price target from $125 to $65.

Q1'26 Positives & Negatives:

Positives: a) Positive commentary surrounding the O18 user opportunity with the US cohort growing 40%+, with mgmt also highlighting that the cohort monetizes at a 50%+ higher rate than U18 US DAUs; b) continued expansion of offerings to native advertisers & adoption by creators, with more than 60 out of the top 100 creators using RBLX’s native ads manager – and mgmt. reiterating confidence surrounding the long-term growth potential of the business initiative; & c) mgmt reiterated their commitment toward driving an expansion in Novel game offerings – with the announcement of targeted DevEx rate increases (beginning on June 8th) & the launch of several programs to support creators (incl. Roblox Jumpstart & Incubator).

Negatives: a) Q2 & 2026 bookings/Adj. EBITDA guidance came in well below GS/Street (and prior FY26 guidance) estimates, as the company reflects ongoing headwinds from safety initiatives, continued investments into long-term strategic priorities, paired with lower fixed cost leverage (due to lower bookings growth assumptions); b) Q1 DAUs were below GSe/Street expectations due to greater-than-expected headwinds from the rollout of age-checks and the platform ban in Russia – with mgmt. also expecting DAUs to continue to decline on a sequential basis during Q2; c) on the back of age verification checks (which were a headwind to communication on the platform during Q1), RBLX App Store ratings declined, resulting in a reduction to organic signups that have traditionally been derived from the app store; & d) mgmt noted that additional algorithm & home page layout experimentation (which are expected to continue in Q2) could result in near-term headwinds to bookings & engagement.

Additional institutional commentary (courtsey of Bloomberg):

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Nathan Naidu

• "Roblox's push to have users complete age verification or face limits on platform communication is expected to extend a near-term slowdown in engagement and bookings but should support longer-term growth by addressing child-safety scrutiny and heavy sales concentration in a few major games"

Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Cost (overweight, PT $62)

• Roblox's age verification system is creating headwinds

• "That said, this system is fully within RBLX's control and fixes are on the way, as strength beneath the surface could create greater room for revisions ahead."

Jefferies analyst James Heaney (hold, PT $46 from $60)

• Against what were already low expectations, Roblox's updated FY26 bookings forecast "will continue fueling the bear case for the stock."

• "Primary issues were unexpectedly negative impacts from age check rollout and discovery algo changes, both of which could be multi-quarter headwinds."

Market reaction to the dismal earnings report sent Roblox shares crashing in premarket trading, down 24%, and if losses persist through the cash session, this would be the largest intraday decline since the 26% plunge on February 16, 2022.

Boom/bust...

The broader takeaway is that parents may be becoming more aware of the risks of their children spending hours in online gaming ecosystems, particularly on platforms with social chat features and monetized engagement loops. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 09:10

Futures Rise, Oil Slides On Iran Ceasefire Optimism After Best Month For Stocks Since 2020

US equity futures are higher, set for a new all time high, as the rally that’s pushed Wall Street to record highs on strong megacap tech earnings continues, after the S&P posted its best monthly increase since November 2020. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.3% (spiking moments ago on a report that Iran submitted its latest response to US amendments on the ceasefire agreement), while Nasdaq futures are modestly in the red and the Russell underperforms. Pre-market, AAPL is up 3% on healthy guidance and earnings beat even as it warned that memory-chip costs will increase and that shortages of Mac computers will persist for “several months.” NVDA and MSFT are 40bp higher, while AMZN is down 60bp. Headlines since yesterday’s close have been largely quiet, especially given the market holidays across most European and Asian markets. Bond yields dropped 1-2bp, and oil slipped after news that Iran had delivered its response to the latest US ceasefire amendment via Pakistani sources; the news pushed Brent down by about $1 to $110 and WTI dropped to session lows around $103; precious metals and aluminum are lower. The dollar was little changed having wrapped up its worst month since June, after a second intervention to by the BOJ/MOF in Japan pushed the yen sharply higher (although it has again given up most of its gains). Gold traded around $4,600 an ounce. Today's economic data calendar slate includes April manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and ISM manufacturing (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Miran at 8am

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Apple is up 3.8% after giving a surprisingly strong revenue forecast for the third quarter, even as it warned that memory-chip costs will increase and that shortages of Mac computers will persist for “several months” (Nvidia +0.4%, Microsoft +0.4%, Meta +0.3%, Tesla -0.2%, Alphabet -0.2%, Amazon -0.7%). 

• Amgen (AMGN) is down 1.6% after the drugmaker reported underwhelming sales of some of its newer products for the first quarter, with Baird calling the results a “mixed bag.”
• Cohu (COHU) falls 1.1% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported adjusted earnings per share that missed the average analyst estimate. However, analysts remain positive on its long-term growth prospects.
• Moderna Inc. (MRNA) jumps 6.7% after first-quarter sales beat expectations, as the struggling vaccine maker that’s faced resistance from the Trump administration has found new growth outside the US.
• Roblox (RBLX) tumbles 24% after the video-game company reported daily active users for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. The company also lowered its forecast for full-year bookings, a key measure of sales, after implementing safety features restricting how kids, who make up a majority of its audience, can use the platform.
• Sandisk (SNDK) is down 6.2% after the computer hardware and storage company reported third-quarter results that were much stronger than expected and gave an outlook that was well above the consensus. Despite the upside in the report and forecast, analysts said the report may not have been strong enough to meet high investor expectations.
• Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) is down 21% after the biotech firm said it plans to continue the study of its experimental cancer drug, following a review by an independent committee. Barclays analysts say the optics of the new guidance pressured shares.
• Sunbelt Rentals (SUNB) is down 2.6% after JPMorgan cut the recommendation on the equipment rental company to underweight from neutral, citing an “increase in industry-wide freight rates and fuel costs and the expected outperformance of Specialty (which is lower margin vs. General Tool).”
• Twilio Inc. (TWLO) jumps 18% after the software company reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. The company also raised its revenue growth forecast for the year.
• Veeva Systems (VEEV) rises 9.7% as the cloud-based software company is set to replace Coterra Energy in the S&P 500.
• Zeta Global (ZETA) is up 6.5% after the software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast. Analysts are especially positive on the company’s Athena AI operating system.

In other corporate news, Tesla generated more than half a billion dollars in revenue last year from selling products to two of Elon Musk’s other companies, the carmaker disclosed in an amended annual filing. Western Digital shares fell in extended trading despite reporting better than expected results across key metrics. Expectations were high, with shares up more than 60% in April. Novo Nordisk’s obesity shot Wegovy helped people with alcoholism reduce their drinking in a controlled study of patients who sought help with their addiction. 

Stocks are set to start the month of May in the green after closing a volatile April at record highs, with the S&P 500 logging its strongest monthly gain since 2020. Apple, the fifth Mag 7 megacap to report in two days, delivered a surprisingly strong revenue forecast for its third quarter, even as it warned that memory-chip costs will increase and that shortages of Mac computers will persist for “several months.”

Apple aside, it's all about AI: according to Bloomberg, S&P 500 margin expansion is being entirely driven by AI stocks, and without those companies, margins would have contracted.  And AI stocks are cheap relative to history alongside much stronger fundamentals, with AI stocks expected to deliver 33.7% EPS growth from 2Q to 4Q 2026 — roughly 2.5x that of non-AI peers, writes Bloomberg analyst Nathaniel T Welnhofer. 

Alphabet’s 10% gain on Thursday added $421 billion to its market value, the second-biggest one-day jump in market cap add for any stock ever. OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar, rebutting concerns about missing internal targets, said the company is meeting objectives and sees “a vertical wall of demand” for its products. Elsewhere in AI, debt investors are showing signs of fatigue after $300 billion of deals that have spanned every corner of the credit market, with bankers having to work harder to sell deals by offering more incentives and higher compensation. 

“The latest US earnings season has been robust, which has helped prevent global markets from suffering big losses despite the impact of the Iran conflict,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

Meanwhile, Goldman traders note that May is likely to see moderate tailwinds from corporate buybacks, while systematic strategies are more likely to become sellers of global stocks after a heavy re-leveraging.  S&P Dow Jones Indices has launched a consultation that could eventually speed up the entry of mega cap companies seeking to IPO into its indexes, including the S&P 500.

Fitch Ratings warned the US’s credit grade faces challenges due to a widening deficit that leaves its debt burden “far above” other nations that share its AA score. 

Oil held its second weekly gain as US President Donald Trump said he was sticking with a naval blockade of Iranian ports, elevating concerns the vital Strait of Hormuz would not reopen anytime soon. Brent for July rose above $111 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was above $105 — up 12% this week.

“Oil prices remaining above $110 per barrel though are a reminder of the stakes for the global economy and the fact that there looks no path to the Strait of Hormuz reopening in the near term,” AJ Bell’s Mould said.

Most European markets are closed for a public holiday; UK stocks dropped in thin holiday trading, led lower by NatWest on disappointing earnings and AstraZeneca on a regulatory setback. Meanwhile, water utilities fell after Citi downgraded United Utilities and Severn Trent on “limited absolute valuation upside.” Diageo rose on tariff relief hopes.  The FTSE 100 fell 0.5%, while Denmark’s OMX Copenhagen 25 Index was little changed, amid holidays for many other European markets. Here are the key stock movements this morning

• Diageo gained 1.6% after US President Donald Trump said he would be removing some Scotch tariffs following a visit from King Charles III.
• NatWest dropped as much as 4.2%, hitting a one-month low, as analysts looked past forecast-beating results to note that the UK lender’s adjusted profit had undershot expectations, while the improved income target had already been anticipated. Net interest income came in slightly below expectations.
• AstraZeneca slipped as much as 2.2% after the US Food and Drug Administration’s Oncology Drugs Advisory Committee voted against the drugmaker’s breast cancer medicine, known as camizestrant. Morgan Stanley noted the vote creates a “regulatory overhang and a dent to investor sentiment,” though the commercial impact is “relatively modest.”
• UK water utility stocks slide following a steep rally on Thursday as Citi downgrades United Utilities and Severn Trent due to “limited absolute valuation upside” on a 12-month view.

Asian stocks rose, poised to cap a fourth-straight weekly gain, buoyed by tech earnings as traders awaited more catalysts. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up about 0.3% Friday, with key gauges in Japan, Australia and New Zealand closing in the green. All of the region’s other key markets were closed for holidays. The regional benchmark was on track for a weekly advance of 0.7%. Japan’s tech-heavy Nikkei 225 tracked gains in US peers after results from major tech firms. Chip-equipment Tokyo Electron was among the biggest boosts to the regional gauge after a better-than-expected forecast. Next week’s highlights include rate decisions in Australia and Malaysia. Companies including HSBC, Toyota, Nintendo and Westpac will report results.

In FX, USD/JPY is little changed near 156.50 although that underplays another volatile session. The pair rose in Asia but fell abruptly during European morning hours, shedding ~150 pips in just a few minutes before recovering after a 2nd Japanese FX intervention. The swings are not as large as those observed on Thursday where Japan likely spent around $34.5 billion Thursday to prop up the yen, according to a Bloomberg analysis of central bank accounts.

In rates, treasuries are steady over Asia, early London session with yields trading marginally cheaper on the day, as oil is set to hold a second weekly gain after President Trump said he was sticking with Iran naval blockade. US yields dropped by 1-2bps across the curve following news that Iran delivered its latest response to US amendments on the agreement to end the war through Pakistani mediators. US 10-year yields trade around 4.36%. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Gilts fall, with declines more pronounced at the short-end. UK two-year yields rise 3 bps to 4.48%.  Twelve names priced $38.3 billion Thursday, paying about 4.5 basis points in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.7 times oversubscribed. Weekly volumes past $62 billion so far exceed dealer forecasts of near $50 billion. Friday is expected to be quiet.

In commodities, oil remains key driver for Treasuries price action. July Brent traded near $112 a barrel, heading for a weekly gain of more than 6%, while West Texas Intermediate was near $106 — up more than 12% for the period. Precious metals fall. Bitcoin rises 1%.

US economic data calendar slate includes April manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and ISM manufacturing (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Miran at 8am.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.1%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%
• FTSE 100 -0.7%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.38%
• VIX +0.2 points at 17.1
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1192.06
• euro little changed at $1.1738
• WTI crude +0.6% at $105.75/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Iran delivered its latest response to US amendments on the agreement to end the war through Pakistani mediators: Al Jazeera
• Weeks of conflict have aggravated Iran's dire economic problems, risking calamity after the war, but the Islamic Republic looks able to survive a standoff in the Gulf for now, despite a U.S. blockade that has cut off energy exports. With major fighting paused by an April 8 truce, Iran is locked in a stalemate with the U.S. and Israel, with talks for a lasting ceasefire stalled while Tehran keeps the Strait of Hormuz shut and Washington blockades Iranian Gulf ports. RTRS
• A U.S.-Iran ceasefire that began in early April has "terminated" hostilities between the two sides for the purposes of an approaching congressional war powers deadline, a senior official of President Donald Trump's ‌administration said on Thursday. RTRS
• The US credit rating is under pressure from a widening deficit, with debt “far above” other AA peers, Fitch warned. It expects further fiscal deterioration, driven by tax cuts. BBG
• Huawei is set to capture the largest share of China’s AI chip market this year, with sales jumping by at least 60 per cent amid strong demand from Chinese companies seeking domestic alternatives to Nvidia. FT
• OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar said the company sees a “vertical wall of demand,” after a WSJ report about missed internal goals weighed on AI-linked stocks earlier this week. She said growth may be constrained by limited computing capacity. BBG
• A growing camp of hard-liners believe Iran has to take the military initiative and start a shooting war again to send oil prices soaring higher and increase the pressure on Trump. They argue that the blockade goes beyond the sanctions Iran has faced down in the past and amounts to an act of war that must have a military response. WSJ
• S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC has launched a consultation that could speed up the entry of mega cap companies into its indexes, including the S&P 500. The proposed rule change would shorten the time a company needs to be public before being eligible to six months versus the current minimum of 12 months. If approved, the changes would apply to indexes including the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600, with any changes to be adopted prior to the market open on June 8.  BBG
• Chevron and Exxon beat estimates, offsetting supply and production losses from the Iran war. Shares of both firms rose premarket (CVX+1%, XOM +60 bps). BBG
• Anthropic is racing to close another fundraising round, asking investors to submit applications within the next 48 hours as the company looks to take in ~$50B at a valuation of ~$900B+ (Anthropic closed its last round in Feb at a ~$380B valuation). Tech Crunch
• US President Trump has signed the DHS funding bill.

Iran News

• US President Trump is expected to make a decision on the path forward [on Iran] in the coming days, NBC reported citing a US official.
• US President Trump said would not have approved enriched Uranium for Iran; needs guarantees Iran will not have a nuclear weapon ever. Hormuz blockade is 100% effective.
• A senior Trump administration official said that for War Power Resolution purposes, hostilities that began on February 28th have been terminated.
• Iranian Judiciary head said Iran does not accept negotiation based on imposition; adds Iran has never left the negotiating table, Iranian press reported.
• Iranian National Security Commission member Rezei said "we are currently in the second phase of the war with the enemy..the naval blockade is a continuation of the war.. we are not in a ceasefire situation now", Mehr reported. Full post:"Iran cannot be besieged; We have different ways to export and import In a conversation with Mehr, Ebrahim Rezaei said: "The enemy has turned to our naval blockade after failing in the military war and direct confrontation, and we are currently in the second phase of the war with the enemy." In other words, the naval blockade is a continuation of the war that the Americans have started against us. So, we are not in a ceasefire situation now. A member of the National Security Commission of the Majlis, stating that the Americans do not have the operational capacity to blockade Iran by sea, said: "Our only access route for transit is not through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.".
• US CENTCOM Commander Cooper briefed President Trump for 45 minutes on new operational plans for potential strikes against Iran, Axios' Ravid reported citing sources.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said that it is not responsible to expect a quick conclusion of the negotiations and that the other party has not used the opportunity provided by Iran's proposal, must be ready for any eventuality. The US and Israeli regime are famous for breaking their promises and the biggest guarantee for not repeating the war is the power of Iran.
• Drone attack hits Iranian Kurdish opposition camp east of Iraq's Erbil, according to Reuters, citing security sources. via vv.
• The defense sound heard over Tehran is related to countering micro-birds and reconnaissance drones, via Tasnim.
• Air defence sounds are being heard in some areas of Tehran but reasons are unclear, Mehr News reported.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded with decent gains, helped by the positivity seen stateside. The majority of markets are closed today for Labour Day. ASX 200 rebounded after 8 straight days of losses. Miners led gains while Energy underperformed following Thursday’s drop in oil prices. ANZ reported cash profit that beat estimates; however shares have slipped lower after it raised its coverage ratio by 4bps due to the heightened geopolitical risk. Nikkei 225 posted decent gains, despite the sudden JPY strength amid intervention talk. Tokyo Electron benefited following its positive Q4 results, in which net profit beat estimates.

Top Asian News

• Japan's Top Diplomat Mimura said will not comment on FX.

Eurozone cash and derivatives are closed today in observance of Labour Day. FTSE 100 (-0.6%) is lower this morning, dragged lower by the likes of NatWest (-4.2%), AstraZeneca (-2%) and pressure across the mining names. Delving into the UK bank in a bit more detail, the Co. reported strong headline metrics and lifted its income guidance for the year, whilst reaffirming other components. Despite the upbeat Q1, shares find themselves in the red; some will point towards the 1.4% decline in interest income. As for AstraZeneca, shares have dropped after the US FDA voted against the co’s breast cancer drug.

Top European News

• UK M4 Money Supply MoM (Mar) M/M 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.6%).
• UK Net Lending to Individuals MoM (Mar) M/M 8B vs. Exp. 5.9B (Prev. 6.8B).
• UK BoE Consumer Credit (Mar) 1.895B (Prev. 1.935B).
• UK Mortgage Approvals (Mar) 63.53K vs. Exp. 60K (Prev. 62.58K).
• UK Mortgage Lending (Mar) 6.15B (Prev. 4.84B).
• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Apr) 53.7 vs. Exp. 53.6 (Prev. 51.0).
• UK Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (Apr) Y/Y 3.0% (Prev. 2.2%).
• UK Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (Apr) M/M 0.4% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 0.9%).

Trade/Tariffs

• Japanese PM Takaichi said she will be visiting Vietnam and Australia. "Moreover, through these visits to both countries, taking into account the current situation in the Middle East, I will confirm cooperation on strengthening supply chain resilience, including stable energy supply and critical minerals within the Asian region. I believe such initiatives are also important for procuring critical supplies such as crude oil and petroleum products in Japan.".
• USTR Greer said he suggested a US-China Board of Trade in his meeting with Chinese VP He Lifeng.
• USTR Greer said the US will extend preferential treatment to other UK goods.

FX

• USD/JPY took another leg lower this morning, surpassing Thursday’s low of 155.55 to mark a session trough of 155.48.
• Thursday saw strong verbal intervention from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, then later comments from top FX official Mimura, which pushed the pair lower in excess of 2%. Later in the session on Thursday, Nikkei sources said a Japanese government official confirmed the intervention to Nikkei, but we are still awaiting official confirmation, with Mimura declining to comment on intervention speculation, and figures showing potential FX intervention due late May. Some desks noted the remarks/potential intervention on Thursday may have had a follow-through to the downside in Brent prices as Mimura's "looking at markets on all fronts" could have been viewed as having cross-asset implications. However, there was no move in the Brent Jul'26 contract this morning.
• Though it is impossible to say whether intervention occurred in this morning’s 150pip+ move, 7:45 am BST (3:45 pm JST) marks the low-liquidity period and the final hour of the Tokyo trading session, a European holiday, and also month-end. Factors which provide a relatively low liquidity environment, which boost the effectiveness of intervention.
• In terms of the move this morning, USD/JPY fell 156 pips from 157.05 to a low of 155.48, half of the move has now been pared as participants continue to price the still low real rates in Japan, and the potential for energy prices to remain high, which MUFG says will see USD/JPY rebound quickly.
• DXY was resilient to JPY moves, with the index falling briefly below the 98.00 mark, then paring most of the move. DXY will likely attempt to return to 100 and 200 DMAs either side of 98.50, which it has mostly respected throughout the week.
• BoJ data for April 30th shows FX intervention of some JPY 5.4tln.

Fixed Income

• Fixed benchmarks are flat amid mass market closures with liquidity thin and the docket sparse.
• USTs in a narrow 110-17+ to 110-22+ range, awaiting Final Manufacturing PMI and then the ISM Manufacturing figure thereafter. Today's docket also has Fed's Miran; reminder, as Powell has indicated he will remain at the Fed once he is no longer Chair, Miran will likely vacate his spot for Warsh.
• Gilts gapped lower by 15 ticks and then slipped to an 86.36 low, though comfortably above Thursday's 85.90 contract base. No move to the Final Manufacturing PMI, which unsurprisingly points to marked price pressures and frontloading of purchase activity.
• Ahead, BoE Chief Economist Pill is due; Pill was the sole hawkish dissenter in April, and sees the risk of second round effects as being to the upside vs the three scenarios, calling for a "prompt but modest hike" to "help mitigate upside risks to price stability".
• Japan sold JPY 250bln 10-year I/L JGBs: b/c 3.40x, Yield at the Lowest Accepted Price 0.578%.
• Australia sold AUD 1.0bln 4.50% 2033 bond: b/c 3.56x, average yield 4.8608%.

Commodities

• In geopolitics, the Trump administration is framing hostilities with Iran as “terminated” under the War Powers Resolution due to a ceasefire, allowing it to bypass the 60-day congressional approval requirement despite ongoing tensions and historically weak enforcement of the law. Trump’s stance remains inconsistent—he alternates between suggesting a deal with Iran may or may not be necessary while firmly maintaining that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons—and he has indicated that Iran’s military capabilities are significantly degraded, though the ceasefire’s durability is uncertain. Meanwhile, CENTCOM has already presented detailed strike options, with a decision on next steps expected within days. Diplomatically, talks are stalled: Iran signals slow progress, internal disagreements are emerging within its leadership over negotiation strategy, and external actors like Israel anticipate a collapse in talks, potentially triggering escalation, including possible strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Iran, for its part, is preparing for “any eventuality,” adopting a defiant posture, reinforcing defences, and continuing limited military responses.
• Crude prices remain elevated with WTI Jun between USD 104.13-106.65/bbl and Brent July towards the middle of a USD 110.33-112.45/bbl range at the time of writing. Price action this morning has been fairly muted amid broad market closures in APAC and Europe, due to the Labour Day holiday. Unlike Thursday, oil was unreactive this morning to JPY strength. (See FX for details)
• Spot gold and silver are softer as higher crude prices keep the precious metals space pressured, with little action seen from a slide in the DXY amid a sudden surge in the JPY around 0745BST. Spot gold resides within yesterday’s USD 4,539-4,647.05/oz.
• Base metals are mixed with 3M LME copper flat within a narrow USD 13,008.53-13,121.88/t range amid little impetus as Chinese markets were closed overnight and a large part of Europe is away.
• US President Trump's mineral reserve reportedly plans to purchase rare earths from China.
• White House said presidential permit authorizes bridger pipeline expansion to construct, connect, operate, and maintain pipeline facilities at boundary at Phillips County, Montana, between US and Canada. Permitee granted permission to transport between the United States and Canada crude oil and petroleum products.

US Event Calendar

• 9:45 am: United States Apr F S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 54, prior 54
• 10:00 am: United States Apr ISM Manufacturing, est. 53.2, prior 52.7
• 10:00 am: United States Apr ISM Prices Paid, est. 80.3, prior 78.3

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It should be quiet today, with many countries around the world on holiday, particularly in Europe. The UK is off on Monday so it should be a couple of days of low volume even as the war uncertainty drags on.

As it’s the start of the month, Henry will shortly release our regular performance review for April. It was another eventful month, as mounting fears about stagflation pushed many government bond yields to multi-year highs. However, equities had a much stronger time after their March slump, with the S&P 500 (+10.5% in total return terms) posting its best monthly performance since November 2020 when the vaccine news was released, ending the month at a new record high. And most notably, the Philly Semiconductor index (+38.4% total return) had its best month since February 2000, the month before the dot com bubble began to burst. For all the negativity around Europe of late, the Stoxx 600 (+5.6%) managed its best month since January 2025 while the MSCI EM index (+14.7%) had its best month since November 2022. Oil had a U-shaped performance, ending not far from where it started, but with Brent crude up over 25% from the mid-month lows. So a fascinating month. See the full review in your inboxes shortly.

Oil prices have continued to creep higher overnight, with no sign that the US and Iran are moving closer to a deal. Given the month-end, there’s been a contract roll, but if we stick with the July 2026 contract for consistency, Brent crude is up +1.07% this morning to $111.58/bbl. Moreover, Trump showed no sign of backing down, saying “Their economy is crashing, the blockade is incredible”, and “we’ll see how long they hold out.” Meanwhile, there’s been no sign of comprise from the Iranian side, with new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issuing a statement that Iran would maintain its missile and nuclear capabilities and suggesting that Iran would implement “new legal frameworks” over the Strait of Hormuz.

This morning in Asia, the yen has weakened -0.36%, after surging +2.44% against the US Dollar yesterday. There was no official word on whether an intervention had taken place, but Nikkei reported later in the day that the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan conducted a yen-buying operation. And Bloomberg also reported overnight that an intervention had taken place. Those moves accelerated after Japan’s currency chief Atsushi Mimura said he was giving a “final warning” before taking action on FX. So if there was intervention, that final warning didn't last very long. In turn, that pushed the yen to 156.59 per dollar by the close, strengthening from its level of 160.41 on Wednesday, when it hit its weakest closing level since July 2024.

Otherwise overnight, the risk-on tone has generally continued as May begins, although many indices are closed for a holiday. However, those that are open have generally risen, with the Nikkei (+0.60%) and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (+0.98%) both higher this morning, whilst futures on the S&P 500 (+0.23%) are pointing to further gains as well.

Markets also ended April on a stronger note yesterday, as a sharp intraday pullback for oil helped to ease fears about stagflation. In fact, Brent crude fell from an intraday high for this conflict of $126.41/bbl, all the way down to $114.01/bbl by the close. These moves may have been distorted by the impending end-of-month benchmark shift, but even for WTI we saw prices rise to a post-ceasefire high of $110.93/bbl intra-day before easing to $105.07/bbl by the close (-1.69% on the day). So relative to 24 hours ago, concerns about inflation have eased considerably, with markets pricing in a slightly more dovish path for central banks as well.

Those oil moves came as central banks sounded less hawkish in their decisions than many feared yesterday, which led to a decent sovereign bond rally on both sides of the Atlantic. For instance, the ECB held rates as expected, keeping their deposit rate at 2%. President Lagarde did give several hints towards a June hike, saying “directionally, I know where we are heading” and acknowledging that rate hikes had been discussed yesterday. But she also offered some dovish counterarguments and didn’t paint a June hike as a fully done deal. This led markets to dial back their expectations for imminent tightening, with the number of hikes priced by year-end falling -10.6bps to 73bps. Our European economists’ main takeaway is that the data and events now need to disprove the case for a hike in June, but they see this leading to a “measured” tightening cycle rather than a “forceful or persistent” one. 

That backdrop meant that European bond yields fell back from their recent highs. So 10yr bund yields (-7.3bps) fell to 3.03%, down from their post-2011 high on Wednesday, and yields on 10yr OATs (-8.4bps) and BTPs (-9.8bps) also fell back. Moreover, that was particularly clear at the front end, with 2yr yields seeing even sharper declines in Germany (-10.0bps), France (-9.3bps) and Italy (-11.7bps). Otherwise, European equities made a decent recovery too, with the STOXX 600 (+1.38%) recovering after four consecutive declines.

For the Bank of England, it was a similar story yesterday, as they also held rates at 3.75% as expected, but didn’t sound in a rush to hike rates. The decision was an 8-1 vote, with chief economist Huw Pill dissenting for a 25bp rate hike. But otherwise, Governor Bailey said that they weren’t “giving some slightly clandestine message that interest rates are going to go up”. So yields fell back after the decision, with the 2yr gilt yield (-10.5bps) coming down to 4.45%, whilst the 10yr gilt yield (-5.9bps) fell back to 5.01%. And as with the ECB, given markets had already priced material tightening for the rest of year, the reaction went in a more dovish direction, with the probability of a hike at the next meeting in June falling from 85% to 61%. So there was some contrast with the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday, which had been more hawkish than expected as three regional presidents dissented against the easing bias. Obviously the unfolding oil narrative of the day helped cement the moves as well.

This backdrop also meant equities put in a decent performance on both sides of the Atlantic. So the S&P 500 (+1.02%) rebounded after the last two days of losses, albeit with some weakness among tech stocks, with the Mag-7 (-0.41%) slipping as losses for Meta (-8.55%) and Microsoft (-3.93%) outweighed Alphabet’s (+9.96%) rally after their results the previous evening. After the close, we also had Apple’s results, whose shares rose around +2% after-hours after projecting stronger-than-expected sales growth for the current quarter (+14-17% vs +9% expected).

That equity recovery was supported by the latest batch of US data, which added to the theme of economic resiliency. For example, the weekly initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since 1969, coming in at just 189k in the week ending April 25 (vs. 212k expected). Separately, we also had the Q1 GDP print, which came in at an annualised rate of +2.0% (vs. +2.3% expected). But the so-called “core GDP” measure of real final sales to private domestic purchasers was slightly stronger at +2.5%.

Otherwise, we also had the PCE inflation data for March, which showed headline PCE at a monthly pace of +0.7%, with the year-on-year print moving up to +3.5%. The print was as expected, but significantly, it means that PCE inflation has now been above the Fed’s 2% target for five full years, which is something I looked at in my chart of the day yesterday (link here). Many thought we were in a permanent period of lower inflation back in the 2010s, but the last five years have seen US inflation consistently above target. As I show in the note, regimes have tended to last for long periods of time. Are we in the early stages of an above-target regime now? Or will we ultimately trend back to target in a reasonable period? My bias is for the former.

However yesterday was a day of relief and Treasury yields also fell back, with the 2yr yield (-7.8bps) falling to 3.87%, whilst the 10yr yield (-5.9bps) fell to 4.37%. In large part that was helped by easing concerns around inflation as oil prices fell back. But we also saw Fed pricing shift in a slightly dovish direction as well, with futures for the December meeting going from 3bps of hikes on Wednesday to 3bps of cuts by yesterday’s close.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the ISM manufacturing for April, along with UK mortgage approvals for March. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the BoE’s Pill. Finally, earnings releases include Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 08:41

US Pledges $100 Million To Repair Chornobyl Nuclear Plant

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of State intends to offer up to $100 million in foreign assistance toward a G7 initiative to repair the Chornobyl nuclear plant’s protective structure that was damaged in Russian strikes.

A visitor touring the former Chernobyl nuclear power plant takes a photo through a window looking toward facilities that house reactors 1 and 2 near Chernobyl, Ukraine, on Sept. 29, 2015. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

The plant, located in Ukraine, was the site of a major disaster in 1986 when Reactor No. 4 exploded, releasing radioactive material across Europe. This prompted one of the biggest emergency responses in history, including building protective structures around the plant. While the final reactor at Chornobyl was shut down in 2000, the site continues to remain highly sensitive.

“For three decades, the United States and G7 partners have led efforts to secure nuclear material at the Chornobyl plant, with the United States providing more than $365 million in total funding towards the New Safe Confinement (NSC) arch that secures the main reactor areas,” the State Department said in an April 29 statement.

“Initially built with a 100-year lifespan, the NSC was damaged last year in a drone strike during the senseless ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. Without repairs, the NSC can no longer provide adequate protection, creating the specter of a dangerous leak of highly radioactive material in Europe.”

According to a report from campaign network Greenpeace, Soviet authorities constructed what was called the Shelter Object over the destroyed Reactor 4 in the aftermath of the 1986 accident.

The Shelter Object aimed to reduce radiation levels at the site, minimize the release of radionuclides into the atmosphere, and prevent water contamination. It was never intended to be permanent and had a design life of around 20 years.

Between 1998 and 2016, the NSC structure was designed and constructed, covering the Shelter Object. NSC was formally commissioned in 2019.

“The NSC was designed to provide a 100-year safe and secure environment for the dismantlement of the Shelter Object and the control of highly radioactive materials inside the building - nuclear fuel, lava-like melted fuel, radioactive dust, and all structural debris,” the report said.

“The design and functioning of the NSC was intended to prevent the release of radioactive materials during the many decades required to conduct this work.”

In February 2025, the NSC was struck by what Ukraine identified as a Russian long-range drone. Moscow denied the claim, saying it does not target nuclear infrastructure and accused Ukraine of staging the incident.

The strike on NSC’s north-west side created an opening of roughly 15 square meters, according to the Greenpeace report. While emergency repairs were initiated on the exterior of the NSC, they could not fully restore the confinement function of the structure.

“This increases the risk of radioactivity release in the environment especially in the case of a collapse of the Shelter Object. The dismantlement of the vulnerable Shelter Object is not possible without repairs to the NSC,” the report said.

“A collapse of the Shelter Object would have significant consequences, including for radiation issues inside the NSC, additional financial costs and in terms of the total collective radiation dose to workers.”

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has initiated a funding program to restore NSC’s functionality, setting 2030 as the deadline to complete the repairs.

The bank warned that without repairs, the structure faces irreversible corrosion within four years.

In its statement, the State Department said it was “proactively committing 20 percent, or $100 million, of the G7’s estimated $500 million cost to rehabilitate the NSC arch and ensure continued safety and security of the Chornobyl reactors and nuclear material.”

“We call upon our G7 and European partners to follow suit and make substantial financial commitments to share the burden of these essential repairs.”

Greenpeace said in an April 14 statement that the ongoing war conditions in the Chornobyl region, including the threat of Russian missiles and drones, make it “near impossible” to kick off major engineering work at the site to repair the NSC.

Eric Schmieman, an engineer who wrote the report and was involved in the design and construction of NSC, said that it’s almost impossible for people to understand the magnitude of lethal conditions inside the Shelter Object.

“Tons of highly radioactive nuclear fuel, dust and debris. My colleagues and I spent years investigating inside the ruins of Chornobyl reactor 4. We designed and built the New Safe Confinement to protect the environment and people of Ukraine and Europe,” Schmieman said.

“It is urgent that all measures are taken to find a way to restore as much of the critical functions of the facility as possible.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 08:10

Nearly 70% Inflation, Mass Layoffs, And A Strangled Economy: Iran's Brutal Test Of Endurance

Iran’s economy is undergoing one of the most brutal stress tests in its modern history. Official annual inflation has surged to 50% according to central bank figures released shortly after the ceasefire, while the year-on-year rate reached as high as 67% through mid-April, according to the Wall Street Journal. The rial has crashed to a record low of 1.8 million to the dollar, roughly two million workers have lost their jobs, and the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to throttle the country’s oil exports and critical imports. Reconstruction costs from bombed infrastructure are estimated near $270 billion - alarmingly close to the country’s entire annual GDP of roughly $341 billion last year. What was already a sanctions-battered, mismanaged economy now confronts a grinding “no war, no peace” stalemate. Tehran is wagering that it can hunker down and endure a protracted war - allowing it to outlast American pressure. The early data and on-the-ground reality suggest that wager is being tested to its limits.

The human impact is immediate and visible in everyday Tehran life. A 56-year-old housewife described to Najmeh Bozorgmehr of the Financial Times how a simple block of cheese rose from 5.2 million rials to 6.7 million rials (about $5.09) in a single week. Comparable jumps have struck rice, eggs, chicken, red meat, and other staples. A popular Peugeot 207 has climbed from 18 billion rials to 25 billion since the conflict began, while officials are preparing to authorize a 40 percent increase in government-mandated cement prices.

The cost of living has soared, with the annual inflation rate reaching 67% in the month through mid-April from the same period a year earlier, according to Iran’s central bank. The subsidized price of red meat, which was mostly imported through sea routes, has gone up to the equivalent of around $3.60 a pound, beyond the reach of most in a country where the minimum wage is around $130 a month. -WSJ

Business consultant Siamak Ghassemi publicly advised Iranians that anything short of a near-doubling of wages would fail to offset the cost-of-living explosion. One small petrochemical-dependent factory outside the capital has already dismissed nearly a third of its workforce. A clothing business owner reported recent costs running 150 percent above sales, bluntly concluding, “This is not sustainable.”

A street vendor on the Tehran Metro last week. Unemployment stood at 7.6% before the US-Israeli war with Iran © Vahid Salemi/AP va FT

Macro indicators reveal the depth of the damage. The Journal’s reporting, informed by Iranian officials and international analysts, estimates around one million direct job losses and another million indirect - equivalent to roughly 8 percent of the pre-war employed population of 25 million. War-related unemployment benefit applications have already reached 191,000. Steel output has dropped by up to 30 percent, while damaged petrochemical, gas, and steel complexes - major employers - grapple with raw-material shortages and physical destruction. Oil exports, which averaged 1.85 million barrels per day as recently as March, have been reduced to a near standstill, with shipping analysts at Kpler finding no confirmed evidence of cargoes successfully breaching the US blockade to reach buyers in China or elsewhere.

At the strategic core of the crisis lies the Strait of Hormuz. Iran initially tried to use the waterway as leverage by disrupting traffic; the US responded with a naval blockade that has effectively severed the Islamic Republic’s economic lifeline. Before the war, the strait carried the vast majority of Iran’s oil revenue and imports ranging from food and medicine to industrial components. In response, Tehran has activated emergency bypass routes: rail and road connections through Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, Caspian Sea ports supplied by Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, and new transit corridors via Pakistan. It has drawn heavily on strategic food reserves, raised the minimum wage, increased government salaries, issued monthly food coupons worth around $7 per person, and appealed to citizens to conserve energy and reduce driving.

Yet these measures are widely viewed as temporary holding operations rather than solutions. Virginia Tech economist Djavad Salehi-Isfahani told the Journal that Iranian leaders recognize ending the war is merely the prelude to an even harder challenge: managing a disillusioned and impoverished population without the rapid return of oil income. Middle East Institute fellow Alex Vatanka points out that while the regime can still portray endurance as a badge of national pride, prolonged revenue collapse increases the risk of renewed street mobilization. Vienna-based economist Mahdi Ghodsi offered a stark assessment: “Living is not affordable anymore. Iran is at its weakest point.”

One medium-sized steel entrepreneur told FT that his firm has so far avoided layoffs by shifting entirely to overland routes, but he expressed deep concern about how long this uncertain limbo can continue. Pre-war protests, already triggered by economic distress and crushed with lethal force earlier this year, provide a sobering precedent. The regime retains a formidable toolkit - subsidies, repression, parallel trade networks, and a narrative of resistance - but whether these tools can withstand another year of 50-percent-plus inflation, double-digit unemployment, and eroding living standards is the central question. This is not a sudden collapse, but a brutal, extended test of endurance whose outcome will shape not only Iran’s economy but the broader regional balance of power.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 07:50

AfD Vows To Drain 'NGO Swamp' After Berlin Café That Bans White People Received Taxpayer Cash

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) has vowed to cut off taxpayer money for left-wing activist groups after a Berlin organization that runs a coworking café that reportedly excludes White people received more than €662,000 in public funding.

The controversy centers on BIWOC Rising, a nonprofit group in Berlin-Kreuzberg that operates a coworking space and café marketed as a protected venue for Black, Indigenous, and women of color, as well as transgender, intersex, and nonbinary people of color.

Critics say the model amounts to a publicly subsidized space that excludes white people while presenting itself as a project for tolerance, diversity, and democracy.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel said the case showed why the party wants to overhaul Germany’s taxpayer-funded activist sector.

“A Berlin café that bans white people from entering was funded with €662,450 in taxpayer money — from the federal program ‘Democracy in Action!’ Pure racism! The AfD will drain the NGO swamp and end the waste of taxpayer money on left-wing ideology,” she wrote on X.

Ein Berliner Café, das Weißen den Zutritt verbietet, wurde mit 662.450 Euro Steuergeld gefördert - aus dem Bundesprogramm „Demokratie leben!“. Rassismus pur! Die AfD wird den NGO-Sumpf austrocknen & die Steuergeldverschwendung für linke Ideologie beenden.https://t.co/Ky6H66dbll

— Alice Weidel (@Alice_Weidel) April 29, 2026

According to German media reports citing funding lists from the Federal Ministry for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth, BIWOC Rising received €662,450 from the federal “Live Democracy!” program between 2021 and 2024. Other calculations place the figure closer to €800,000 when related funding is included, according to reporting from Tichys Einblick.

The program was created to support democracy, counter extremism, and prevent radicalization, but critics say the BIWOC Rising case exposes how public money has been channeled into highly ideological projects.

The group’s official charitable purposes reportedly include education, the promotion of tolerance, and support for people persecuted on political, racial, or religious grounds. However, questions have been raised over how those aims can be reconciled with a venue that restricts access according to racial and identity categories.

The organization is believed not to have responded to media inquiries about the allegations.

It’s not the first time allegations of White racism have been made within German institutions. In August 2023, a German museum of industrial heritage in Dortmund was scolded for only allowing “Black, Indigenous, and People of Color” to enter the museum on Saturdays between 10:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m. for the “That’s Colonial” exhibition. The Zollern Colliery museum argued it was creating a “safer space” intended to protect people of color from “further discrimination.”

The exclusive access was “an offer for BIPoC and black people to be able to withdraw and exchange ideas openly,” according to the museum. “For BIPoC, such safe spaces are rarely found in everyday life or in museum rooms.”

In May 2025, the German Evangelical Church (EKD) was accused of racism after banning White children from attending a workshop on being “courageous and strong” during its Church Congress in Hanover.

The “Become Courage and Strong” workshop was, again, only open to Black, indigenous, and children of color. However, while ethnic Germans and ethnic Europeans are indigenous to Germany and Europe, the designation did not apply to them, only indigenous people from other continents.

“This offer is aimed exclusively at Black, Indigenous, and children of color,” read the program website.

In January of this year, the German taxpayer-funded NGO “Black Sheep,” Schwarze Schafe in German, was offering a six-month intensive seminar designed specifically for White individuals to examine their “alleged privileges,” which is modeled after the concept of “Critical Whiteness.”

The organization, which identifies as a “post-migrant education initiative,” has received significant taxpayer funding from Germans and operates a reporting center for anti-Muslim racism.

White participants were expected to pay up to €2,290 for the course that runs from March to September.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 07:30

The post Five Big Takeaways from the First Quarter GDP Report appeared first on CEPR.

Bombshell Sexual-Harassment Suit Against JPM's Lorna Hajdini Called "Complete Fabrication"

The British tabloid newspaper Daily Mail first broke the story earlier this week about a former JPMorgan staffer who claimed that an executive director on JPM's leveraged finance team turned him into a "sex slave" by drugging him with Rohypnol and Viagra, according to a bombshell lawsuit. However, it now appears that the sexual harassment suit was "fabricated," according to a new report.

The New York Post reported late Thursday that Chirayu Rana, now a principal at Bregal Sagemount, filed the suit under the pseudonym "John Doe," alleging that Lorna Hajdini drugged him, forced him to have sex, and threatened his bonus.

"Rana has been accused of making fabricated sexual-harassment claims against a high-ranking executive at the bank after an internal investigation found no evidence of wrongdoing," the NYPost said, citing sources.

Hajdini's lawyers issued this statement to NYPost:

"Lorna categorically denies the allegations. She never engaged in any inappropriate conduct with this individual of any kind and has never even been to the location where the alleged sexual assault supposedly took place."

Rana apparently filed an internal complaint in May 2025 with JPM, alleging race- and gender-based harassment and abuse of power before his exit. During this time, he allegedly tried to negotiate a payoff that ran into the "millions," sources said. He also accused JPM of retaliation and of failing to investigate properly.

A JPM spokesperson told the outlet that its HR and legal teams reviewed phone records and emails, and interviewed employees, but found no merit to the claims. The bank said Rana refused to participate in the investigation or provide key facts.

"Following an investigation, we don't believe there's any merit to these claims," the spokesperson said. "While numerous employees cooperated with the investigation, the complainant refused to participate and declined to provide facts that would be central to supporting his allegations."

Notably, the outlet said, "Rana did not report to Hajdini. The two were simply colleagues on the leveraged finance team, which works on large corporate acquisitions, mergers, and buyouts."

JPM colleagues told the outlet that Hajdini is viewed internally as "a top performer," and that Rana "has tarnished her with a complete fabrication" after the suit, which was reported by the Daily Mail and subsequently by Indian media outlets. Most Western media outlets stayed away from the story, but X meme accounts had a field day.

Hajdini's Bloomberg profile saw a surge in activity on Thursday.

"That sucks, she got dragged through the news cycle because of this loser. On the plus side, she sort of looks like a legend now, especially now that they claim its fabricated, now she has this power lore around her of being a boss bitch," X user Autism Capital opined.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 07:10

Exxon & Chevron Shares Jump After Big Q1 Earnings Beat

The impact of the war in Iran is on full display this morning in the earnings of two oil giants - Chevron and Exxon Mobil - as both smashed earnings expectations (despite production pressures).

Ahead of the results, Exxon and Chevron had both flagged major reductions in 1Q earnings due to “timing effects,” or paper losses on derivatives tied to cargoes that had not yet reached their destinations before the end of the quarter.

These accounting charges are expected to fully unwind and turn a profit over the coming quarters but will contribute to messy numbers this morning. 

Exxon will take a hit of about $3.7 billion while Chevron’s will be about $3.2 billion, the companies guided earlier this month. 

Chevron exceeded profit expectations as higher oil and natural gas prices, as well as supplies from the acquisition of Hess Corp., outweighed production outages from the Iran war. As Bloomberg's Kevin Crowley highlighted: Adjusted first-quarter net income of $1.41 a share was 51 cents higher than the average estimate from analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

Surging prices for crude and gas, combined with growth from Chevron’s new stake in a giant Guyanese field, helped cushion the blow from a 5% sequential drop in overall output.

Chevron already had warned that significant accounting losses on derivatives tied to cargoes that had yet to reach their destinations. Notoriously difficult to model, that guidance prompted some analysts to slash estimates, a factor that may have played into the magnitude of Friday’s beat.

Chevron’s outsized earnings owed much to swelling prices for real-world oil from places such as Kazakhstan, as well as fat margins from processing the company’s own crude through refineries, Chief Financial Officer Eimear Bonner said in an interview.

“Bottom line, execution exceeded expectations,” she said.

Exxon Mobil outperformed expectations after oil-production increases from Guyana and the Permian Basin helped offset supply losses due to the Middle East war. Bloomberg's Kevin Crowley highlighted: Adjusted first-quarter net income of $1.16 a share was 20 cents higher than the average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

Although profit dropped to a five-year low of $4.9 billion, that figure included the impact of temporary accounting charges tied to derivative contracts that the company expects to fully unwind over the coming months.

Even so, Exxon may revise guidance that forecast full-year daily output equivalent to 4.9 million barrels as the Iran war chokes Middle East energy flows and prevents the Texas oil giant from selling crude and liquefied natural gas from the region.

“Part of the challenge with giving guidance is, as you would imagine, we really don’t know how long the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed,” Chief Financial Officer Neil Hansen said in an interview.

Higher energy prices added $1.7 billion to earnings during the quarter, outweighing a $400 million blow from war-related production outages, according to company figures. Roughly 15% of Exxon’s worldwide output remains offline, Hansen said.

Exxon Mobil shares are up almost 2% in the pre-market...

And Chevron shares are also up around 2%...

Today's results follow big beats by European supermajors...

BP, the first supermajor to report first-quarter results, posted a big beat Tuesday. Earnings more than doubled from a year earlier to $3.2 billion, boosted by its trading and refining businesses.

French supermajor TotalEnergies raised share buybacks and dividends when reporting results Wednesday, on the back of soaring oil and gas prices as well as strong trading performance.

Italian major Eni also boosted share buybacks this quarter thanks to stronger cash-flow expectations.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 06:49

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

• ‘Thoughts and prayers’: The minefield that awaits Kevin Warsh at the Fed: Jerome Powell likely presided over his final rate-setting meeting as chair on Wednesday, ending a turbulent period as central bank chief. (Politico)

• More than half of all Polymarket “long shot” bets on military action pay off: High rate of winning wagers likely to add to concerns that sensitive information can leak on prediction markets. (Financial Times) see also Most Prediction Market Traders Are Losing Money While Bots Rack Up Gains: An analysis of how retail traders fare against algorithmic players on prediction markets. (Bloomberg)

• Bitcoin 2026 opens to empty seats, protests, awkward moments: Bitcoin (BTC) was worth $110,000 at last year’s big Las Vegas conference but by the time Bitcoin 2026 kicked off this week, it had fallen to less than $79,000. Unfortunately, that was just the start of the disappointment. The conference opened yesterday at The Venetian in Las Vegas with two senior US officials addressing a mostly empty main stage. (Protos)

• Two NJ Malls Separated by Just Four Miles — and Very Different Fates: The Livingston Mall is all but dead. The Mall at Short Hills is thriving. It’s a lesson in the cruel economics of consumerism. (Bloomberg)

• The Rise of the High-Range, Less Expensive E.V. Even as the electric vehicle market has slumped, there are more long-range E.V.s under $40,000 than ever before. (New York Times)

• The problem with shopping at Costco? It’s ‘Mad Max’ with shopping carts: The internet calls the condition that afflicts some Costco shoppers “cart tunnel vision,” meaning they lose all situational and spatial awareness. On Reddit, one person coined the term “meanderthals” because “you can’t tell where they’re going and neither can they.” (USA Today)

• A.I. Bots Told Scientists How to Make Biological Weapons: Scientists shared transcripts with The Times in which chatbots described how to assemble deadly pathogens and unleash them in public spaces. Researchers jailbroke frontier models into producing detailed bioweapons synthesis routes. The ‘we’ll fix the guardrails later’ approach gets harder to defend each quarter. (New York Times)

• Two New Drugs Offer Hope for Pancreatic Cancer: Pancreatic cancer is one of the most challenging diseases to treat, and while survival rates have improved since the 1970s, they have plateaued in recent years. But two promising drugs in the pipeline each seem to double survival. (Time)

• In Backlash Against Tech in Schools, Parents Are Winning Rollbacks: From Salt Lake City to New York City, parents are demanding more sway over the digital tools that schools give children. After a decade of evangelism, parents are pulling Chromebooks out of classrooms and putting paper back in. The ed-tech bubble’s slow deflation continues. (New York Times)

• The Slugger Who Only Walks, Strikes Out—or Hits Monster Home Runs: Japan’s Munetaka Murakami has struck out, walked or homered in 61 of his plate appearances, for the Chicago White Sox this season. He has also been one MLB’s most productive hitters. (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this weekend with Lawrence Calcano, CEO and Chairman of iCapital, The firm is a fintech platform built to be the OS for alternative investments and complex products for financial advisors, wealth managers, and banks. The firm has over $1.2 trillion in active global assets on platform,  across 2,455 funds used by 123,ooo financial professionals.

 

Almost a quarter of jobs worldwide could be “exposed” to AI

Source: BofA Global Economics Team

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

EU Parliament Pushes Funding Cuts To Orbán-Founded Patriots Group As Witch-Hunt Continues

Via Remix News,

The European Parliament will vote today on suspending EU funding for the right-wing Patriots for Europe faction, founded by outgoing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

At stake is the alleged mismanagement of €4.3 million of EU funds by Philip Claeys, the former secretary general of the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group, who now holds the same post for the Patriots for Europe grouping.

One vocal critic of the lack of action by Brussels in the case, according to Euractiv, has been Nick Aiossa, director of Transparency International.

To remind readers, Soros-backed Transparency International has long attacked Hungary for various alleged violations. Last February, it notoriously ranked the CEE country at the same level as Burkina Faso and South Africa in its 2024 corruption index.

“Considering the seriousness and scale of the irregularities identified, and given that the expenditures in question were authorised and validated under the authority of Mr Claeys, the initiation of a complementary investigation by OLAF appears both necessary and proportionate,” Transparency International stated.

The funds are implicated in various accusations of misuse, including “fictitious service contracts, improper procurement procedures and donations to non-parliamentary groups with ties to far-right figureheads, such as France’s Marine Le Pen,” notes Euractiv.

Le Pen was a major target of Brussels as well, with her rising popularity seen as a threat ahead of critical presidential elections in France next year. Her party, National Rally, also joined the Patriots for Europe group. She was, however, banned from running for office in France after being convicted for misappropriating over €4 million in European Parliament funds, a charge she continues to deny and blames on a witch hunt against anti-migration, conservative voices.

Le Pen has appealed the ruling.

Transparency International’s Aiossa has called for Claeys to be stripped of his power as well. Claeys has denied any wrongdoing, telling Le Monde, “All payments made in the last five years have been duly invoiced, justified and controlled.”

This vote today is critical, as it will allow Brussels to continue going after Orbán by cutting funds for the group his Fidesz party belongs to and which still holds close to 12 percent of the seats in the 2024–2029 European Parliament. It is well known that the outgoing Hungarian leader, highly unpopular among Brussels elites for his sovereignty-focused, nationalist movement, is planning to renew and rebuild his brand inside his country, in Europe, and beyond.

Curbing any resurgence of Orbán will be a high priority for the EU leadership. On the other hand, they are also wrangling with getting funding as soon as possible to Hungary’s new leader, and their darling, Péter Magyar. However, this time, unlike when the right-wing conservatives were ousted from Poland, Brussels is playing hardball, insisting that certain hurdles be overcome before money is released.

Numerous mechanisms were used over the years to go after Orbán’s successive governments, with billions in EU funds ultimately frozen, specifically, €10 billion in post-Covid recovery funds and some €7 billion in cohesion funds.

Hungary has, in fact, already met 17 out of 27 conditions demanded by Brussels, for the former, but now, Magyar has only until August to deliver on judicial independence, anti-corruption safeguards and other reforms, notes Euractiv.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 06:30

British Police Raid Islamic Group Accused Of Sex Trafficking And Slavery

At least nine members of a Cheshire Islamic group have been arrested in a raid of 500 British police officers as part of an investigation into sexual offenses, slavery and forced marriage. 

Officers received reports of human trafficking, rape, and other crimes involving members of a group known as the Ahmadi Religion of Peace and Light, based in Crewe.  Seven men and three women were taken into custody, according to a statement from the Cheshire Police, who said the investigation was initiated because of allegations made by a woman who was previously part of the group in 2023.

Chief Superintendent Gareth Wrigley, of Cheshire Constabulary, said: 

"Today’s operation is the outcome of a detailed and robust investigation into reports of serious sexual offenses, forced marriage and modern slavery involving members of a religious group called Ahmadi Religion of Peace and Light in Crewe. 

While those arrested are members of the group, I want to make clear that this is not an investigation into the religion, this is an investigation into the serious allegations which have been reported to us..."

The AROPL's is a religious movement founded in 2015 by Abdullah Hashem Aba Al-Sadiq (Egyptian-American raised Sunni Muslim). It draws heavily from Shia Islamic traditions.  The group self-identifies with Islamic roots, uses Islamic terminology (referring to their leader as the Qaim/Mahdi appointed in relation to Prophet Muhammad), and maintains many Islamic practices.

British authorities in the UK have been quick to disconnect the sect from the wider Islamic migrant community.  The reasons for this are obvious - The British government is under considerable pressure to stop hiding migrant crime and Islamic crime, but their political agendas are deeply intertwined with third-world immigration.  Islamic groups consistently deny that the actions of grooming gangs have any connection to Muslim culture.     

Islamic fundamentalism justifies the abuse and exploitation of "non-believers", using the "Doctrine of Abrogation" and a series of passages from the Quran specifically allowing for the humiliation or enslavement of foreigners and non-believers as a means to force them into religious submission.  The Islamic slave trade operated throughout Africa and the Middle East until it was disrupted by the British Empire from 1833 to 1937.    

The surprising level of transparency of the latest raid may be part of a British government effort to clean up their image after it was revealed in 2025 that pro-multicultural authorities had spent the past decade covering up numerous reports of Islamic "grooming gangs" kidnapping and assaulting young British girls.  The government had been aware of this criminal activity as early as 2015 and did nothing.  

It should be noted that many British activists have been threatened by law enforcement, attacked by the establishment media and even jailed over the years simply for exposing this ongoing problem common among third world migrants.  The grooming gangs were ignored because their activities were inconvenient to the liberal open borders narrative dominating social politics in Europe since 2014.

Today, however, polling shows that both the left wing Labour Party and the Conservatives Party (which is also left wing) are facing political obliteration in the next general election (held in 2029) due to their mishandling of the immigration problem as well as the UK economy.  Unless they offer substantial changes to their policies, they stand to be swept out of Parliament.

The multiculturalists may very well be removed from government regardless.      

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 05:45

Canada's Culture Minister: Regulating Online Content A Duty Of Federal Government

Authored by Olivia Gomm via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Culture Minister Marc Miller says the federal government has the role of regulating content on the internet and that Canada is years behind other countries when it comes to regulating “online harms.”

Minister of Canadian Identity and Culture Marc Miller rises during Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, on Feb. 25, 2026. The Canadian Press/Spencer Colby

Miller told reporters on Parliament Hill April 29 that when it comes to the regulation of online content and social media, that role is “assumed by the federal government, whether we’re talking about moratoriums or the proper regulation of egregious online harms.”

“That’s stuff that we’re, frankly, a couple years behind in regulating, as we see other jurisdictions like Australia, like Britain, like France taking action,” Miller said, as was first covered by Blacklock’s Reporter. “We need to take action as well.”

Asked to comment on when the government plans on tabling a new online harms bill, Miller said “we’re working on it” and declined to share a timeline.

Miller told reporters earlier this month that a new online harms legislation is in the works and the government is “seriously” thinking about adding a social media ban for children to the bill, but did not provide a status or timeline for the introduction of the legislation then either.

The upcoming legislation will be the government’s third attempt to legislate on “online harms,” following previous proposals in 2021 and 2024, neither of which passed before Parliament was dissolved. Conservatives and civil liberties advocates had criticized both bills as posing a risk to freedom of expression.

In March, the federal government reconvened the same group of experts first formed in 2022 that made recommendations to the government on how to address online content deemed to be harmful, which led to Bill C-63.

The department of industry said in a recent report to the Senate social affairs committee that Ottawa is examining a “future online safety regime” meant to reduce content deemed as being harmful, such as hateful content and cyberbullying on large platforms.

“To advise on this proposal, the government has recently reconvened the Expert Advisory Group on Online Safety whose members previously contributed to the development of online harms legislation, to engage on new and emerging issues related to online harms,” the department said.

“Any future legislative proposal would be subject to parliamentary scrutiny, and details will be made public at the appropriate time.”

In 2021, Bill C-36 proposed a regulatory framework for harmful online content, but faced criticism from the opposition over its scope, including concerns about definitions of harmful speech and the extent of proposed oversight powers.

In 2024, Bill C-63 placed a stronger focus on protecting children and addressing specific categories of harmful content, and proposed the creation of new regulatory bodies such as a digital safety commissioner and ombudsperson. It also included amendments to the Criminal Code and human rights law, with stricter penalties for certain hate-related offences.

After pushback on the 2024 bill, the government said it was open to splitting the bill in two to facilitate the passage of measures protecting children, but the bill lapsed after Parliament was prorogued in January of last year.

Justice Minister Sean Fraser said last November that new legislation regulating online content would be different from the government’s previous proposals. Meanwhile, former Heritage Minister Steven Guilbeault said a few months earlier that upcoming online harms legislation would be similar to the versions tabled in 2024 and 2021.

The Liberals’ election platform last spring promised to “introduce legislation to protect children from horrific crimes including online sexploitation and extortion and give law enforcement and prosecutors the tools to stop these crimes and bring perpetrators to justice.”

The Liberals also pledged to “make it a criminal offence to distribute non-consensual sexual deepfakes” and to “increase penalties for the distribution of intimate images without consent.”

Jennifer Cowan, Noé Charter, and Paul Rowan Brian contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 05:00

China Reopens Fuel Export Spigot, Offering Relief To Asian Buyers

Beijing is reversing its curbs on refined fuel exports after halting shipments in the opening days of the U.S.-Iran conflict. This move suggests that Chinese domestic inventories are now at comfortable levels, allowing state refiners to reopen the export spigot, even as much of Asia remains gripped by a fuel shock caused by disrupted Gulf energy flows through the Hormuz chokepoint.

There was chatter earlier this week that China's state-owned refiners were applying for government permits to resume fuel exports in May. These include China Petrochemical (Sinopec Group) and China National Petroleum Corporation.

By late in the week, Bloomberg reported that state-owned refiners had received government approval to export 500,000 tons of fuel next month.

People familiar with the upcoming shipments said the one-off quota would allow gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to be sent to neighboring Asian countries, providing relief amid a worsening fuel crunch.

They said these shipments will be loaded onto tankers and are likely destined for Vietnam, Laos, and other nearby nations.

China's U-turn on export curbs comes weeks after the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and International Energy Agency urged countries to avoid panic hoarding of energy supplies, as JPMorgan analysts warned that Asia would face the most immediate impact from the Gulf energy shock.

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 03:30

Trump Threatens To Pull Some US Troops Out Of Germany While Lambasting 'Ineffective' Merz

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has been a bit on the defensive since his earlier in the week swipe at President Trump over launching the war against Iran. The German leader had told students in a talk that the US is being "humiliated" by Iranian leaders. He had also asserted, "If I had known that it would continue like this for five or six weeks and get progressively worse, I would have told ​him even more emphatically."

As we covered earlier Thursday, Merz has tried to soften the spat, after Trump responded on Truth Social earlier, "From my perspective, my personal relationship with the ​US President remains good," he told reporters. "I simply had doubts from the ⁠start about what was begun with the war in Iran. That is ​why I have made that clear."

But that hasn't quieted Trump, who again hit back again in a fresh Thursday morning Truth Social post, which emphasized that the German Chancellor should focus more on problems like the Russia-Ukraine war, where "he has been totally ineffective" - Trump said. 

The US President once again reiterated that Germany is "broken" - and that this especially true on immigration and energy. He also reiterated that his Operation Epic Fury is making "the World, including German, a safer place!"

However, Merz earlier sought to place some of Germany's economic woes precisely on the war raging in the Middle East, and ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure. His initial April 29 remarks had included the following: "In Germany and Europe we are ​suffering from the consequences, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” he had said.

Wednesday night saw Trump issue a new, important threat, which he has been teasing as a possibility for day:

"The United States is studying and reviewing the possible reduction of Troops in Germany, with a determination to be made over the next short period of time," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Responsible Statecraft's Trita Parsi is also a deep Iran war critic, but says that EU leaders are full of hypocrisy on the Iran issue, and that it needs to be called out. Parsi writes:

Merz isn't wrong in saying he's "disillusioned" with the US & Israel over Iran because they "claimed at the beginning that they could solve this problem within days. Now I must recognize: It is not solved." But he is in no position to complain. He applauded the war and as a result, owns the outcome. This is typical of some EU leaders who support and help facilitate the US's worst instincts, and then pretend they are innocent when the foreign policy adventure predictably goes wrong.

The comments underscore several European leaders’ reassessment of their relations with Trump. A tendency to smooth ties by currying favor has given way to a more sober perspective of a U.S. president who has repeatedly called into question NATO, bolstered European far-right forces and threatened to seize Greenland, a territory of Denmark.

Meanwhile Merz holds a presser in military fatigues, hilariously enough...

German Chancellor Merz demands:

Iran must come to the negotiating table.

It must stop playing for time.

It must not continue to take the entire region — and ultimately the whole world — hostage.

The military nuclear program in Iran must be ended.

There must be no more… pic.twitter.com/xkaf6Eh7wh

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 30, 2026

Regardless, the fresh critique by a leading EU head of state is certainly going to add fuel to the fire of Trump's ratcheting anti-EU and anti-NATO rhetoric, given their absence in helping the US get the Strait of Hormuz back open and the return to normal functioning of global energy transit once again.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 02:45

Top Russian & Indian Think Tanks Devised A Plan For Rebalancing Economic Relations

Authored by Andrew Korbybko via Substack,

Sanctions, bureaucracy, and logistics are the primary obstacles to “diversifying economic ties and correcting the existing imbalance”, but these can be surmounted through SMEs playing a greater role, more localization and procedure simplifications, and optimizing their trade corridors.

The Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and Gateway House, which are among their country’s top think tanks, published a joint report in late March about moving “Toward More Balanced Russia–India Economic Relations” for the second Russia-India International Conference. It’s over 40 pages long so this piece will highlight the top takeaways and then briefly analyze them. The report began by acknowledging the challenges posed by US sanctions for reaching their goal of $100 billion in bilateral trade by 2030.

The solution that was presented, especially for the oil and financial industries, is having Indian SMEs play a much greater role due to their much less exposure (if any at all) to the US’ secondary sanctions. China’s “tea pot” model of small refineries is mentioned as an example for India’s oil industry to follow. The authors also proposed bilateral cooperation in building similar such facilities in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Kenya, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka, for example. India would thus help Russia meet their smaller demand.

Their suggestion for expanding critical minerals cooperation is for their state-owned companies to form joint R&D initiatives to strengthen their technological self-sufficiency. As for doing the same in the broad health-related field (biotech, pharmaceuticals, etc.), it’s recommended that Indian manufacturers localize production, IP rights, etc., in Russia to better overcome bureaucratic hurdles. Russian research capabilities could also pair with Indian manufacturing capacity to expand market share in third countries.

The bureaucratic hurdles mentioned above also impede cooperation on food and textile industries, but simplifying procedures could help, especially through the creation of unified digital platforms. More industrial cooperation is possible, especially in the automotive, aviation, and railway industries, but localization is likely the prerequisite. Improving logistics across the North-South Transport Corridor and the Vladivostok-Chennai Maritime Corridor can reduce costs and thus raise incentives for scaling trade.

More technological cooperation is difficult for the multiple reasons that were enumerated in the report, not least of which is global competition, so this might prove disappointing in the future. Each’s SMEs might have better chances, but overall, this might not expand associated cooperation all that much. What’s much more promising is labor cooperation, which is already a work in progress that readers can learn more about here, basically amounting to Russia replacing Central Asian labor with Indian.

To review, sanctions, bureaucracy, and logistics are the primary obstacles to “diversifying economic ties and correcting the existing imbalance”, but these can be surmounted through SMEs playing a greater role, more localization and procedure simplifications, and optimizing their trade corridors. Although the prospects for more technological cooperation are dim, efforts nevertheless shouldn’t be abandoned due to the strategic importance of this industry, especially its AI component.

The authors conclude that Russia and India’s $100 billion trade goal by 2030 is realistic, but this requires urgently implementing the aforementioned proposals to increase 2025’s estimated $60 billion in trade by another $40 billion in the next four years, which will be very difficult to achieve and then maintain. The Third Gulf War has caused radical changes to the global energy market, Eurasian logistics, and the financial industry, however, so it’s premature to predict the odds of success till the dust finally settles.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 02:00

Congress Passes 45-Day Extension Of FISA Section 702, Sending It To Trump's Desk

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump on Thursday signed a bill to extend a spying authority of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) for 45 days as congressional debate on the controversial measure continues.

The U.S. Capitol building on April 29, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

Both chambers of Congress raced to pass the short-term measure earlier Thursday after the Senate declined to take up a House-passed bill to extend the deadline until 2029.

The House passed the “clean” extension, without reforms, which punts the deadline from April 30 to June 12, in a 261–111 vote. It was passed under a suspension of the rules, meaning it relied on Democratic support to pass. However, opposition to the measure was also bipartisan, with 26 Republicans joining 85 Democrats in casting a “No” vote.

The measure’s passage and signature into law came just hours before the critical—but contentious—power was due to expire.

The 45-day extension was proposed and passed by the Senate earlier on Thursday after it became clear that a three-year extension passed by the House the night before couldn’t pass the Senate before the midnight deadline.

Section 702 allows U.S. intelligence agencies to collect emails, phone calls, texts, and other communications of foreign nationals located outside the United States for national security purposes, such as tracking terrorism, espionage, or weapons proliferation, without obtaining an individualized warrant.

However, the data of Americans who communicate with these foreign targets can be incidentally gathered and is available to U.S. intelligence without a warrant—a “backdoor search” loophole that has come under criticism by privacy advocates.

Trump, despite his current support for a clean reauthorization of the power, has acknowledged his experience with the law in the past.

In a post on Truth Social, he described it as “the worst and most illegal abuse of FISA in [U.S.] History,” referencing disclosures that revealed that the FBI had used Section 702 of FISA to spy on Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign as part of the Crossfire Hurricane operation.

Nevertheless, Trump has praised the intelligence utility of the authority when used appropriately.

However, some lawmakers in both chambers are disinclined to agree: Bipartisan concerns about Section 702’s effects on American civil liberties, particularly Fourth Amendment protections, are as old as the legislation itself.

Despite Trump’s calls for a clean reauthorization—calls that have won the support of House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio)—many of those congressional skeptics are among Trump’s closest allies, including lawmakers like Reps. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.).

On Wednesday, the lower chamber also authorized a bill that would extend Section 702 of FISA for three years, but that measure included provisions that have been opposed by Senate Democrats.

Namely, the three-year extension bill would prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing digital currency, an asset class known as central bank digital currency.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has long warned that such a measure would struggle in the upper chamber, and urged the House against attaching it to the reauthorization measure.

Jackson Richman contributed to this report.  

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 23:30

Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund To Stop Funding LIV Golf After 2026 Season

LIV Golf is preparing to inform players and staff that its main financial backer, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, will stop funding the league after the 2026 season, according to Golfweek. The announcement—expected midweek—would open the door for CEO Scott O'Neil to pursue new investment to keep the tour running.

Since launching in 2022 as a challenger to the PGA Tour, the circuit has reportedly burned through more than $5 billion while failing to gain meaningful U.S. viewership. Broadcast deals with The CW Network and later Fox did little to improve ratings.

Uncertainty around funding has been building. In April, O’Neil acknowledged the league is only financed through this season, saying future survival depends on securing new backers—even as he publicly maintained LIV is in its best position yet.

Golfweek writes that the timing aligns with a broader shift by PIF, led by Yasir Al-Rumayyan, toward prioritizing domestic projects over global spending.

LIV did manage to lure big names like Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, and Jon Rahm with lucrative deals. Still, its team-based, no-cut format struggled to resonate broadly, despite pockets of success overseas and moments like Anthony Kim’s brief resurgence.

Efforts to align with the PGA Tour—including a 2023 framework agreement that followed LIV’s antitrust lawsuit—ultimately stalled, even with involvement from Donald Trump.

Recent player movement has added to the uncertainty, with figures such as Brooks Koepka and Patrick Reed stepping away from LIV competition.

With only a handful of events remaining this season, LIV Golf now faces mounting pressure to secure fresh funding—or risk folding after 2026.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 23:00

1 In 5 Americans Are Still Working From Home

The COVID-19 pandemic marked a dramatic shift in workplace dynamics, as working from home suddenly became the norm for millions of workers in the United States and across the globe.

As Statista's Felix Richter notes, this transformation offered employees newfound flexibility, enabling them to manage their time more effectively, eliminate commutes, facilitate childcare and often achieve a better work-life balance. Remote work also allowed for a customized work environment, fostering comfort and productivity for many.

However, traditional office settings continue to hold unique advantages, which is why, six years later, more and more employers have called their workers back to the office for most days of the week. Offices facilitate in-person collaboration, spontaneous brainstorming and social interaction, all of which are challenging to replicate virtually. Additionally, the structured environment of an office can provide clearer boundaries between work and personal life, reducing distractions and helping employees switch off when at home.

According to Statista Consumer Insights, 1 in 5 American employees still worked from home regularly in 2025, while 43 percent of respondents regularly worked in a company office.

You will find more infographics at Statista

In many cases, hybrid models combining the benefits of both setups have emerged, catering to diverse employee preferences and living situations and striking a balance between the benefits and disadvantages of both working from home and in the office.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 22:30