US Service Members Targeted Via Commercial Location Data, Pentagon Tells Senators

Adversaries have used commercially-available location data to attack individual US service members in war zones, according to a report furnished by the Department of Defense to Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden, and first reported by Reuters. Wyden is a Democratic member of the Senate intelligence committee. 

Responding to four questions Wyden had posed about this potential avenue of vulnerability for service members deployed to the Middle East, the Pentagon said that US Central Command "has received multiple threat reports concerning adversary exploitation of commercial location data to target or surveil US personnel in theater. The Threat Fusion Cell identified, tracked, and disseminated these threats through the USCENTCOM Threat Working Group and to component force protection personnel." 

A US Army soldier takes an iPhone selfie at a base in Qayyara, Iraq in 2016 (Reuters - Alaa Al-Marjani)

Elaborating on the nature of the threat, the Pentagon noted that: 

"Commercial location data can be used to identify where U.S. troops congregate and their pattern of life, which can be exploited by adversaries ​to target attacks such as missiles, drones, and roadside bombs, as well as for counterintelligence purposes." 

The Pentagon's brief set of responses did not provide details on any specific incidents. Early in the US-Israeli war on Iran, two DOD officials were wounded in an Iranian drone strike on a Crowne Plaza hotel in Bahrain. After the strike, a senior Iranian official told Drop Site that Iran had built a "target bank" of both American and Israeli personnel.  “The fact that they’ve now pinpointed the residences/locations of some of these forces has really caught the Americans and Israelis off guard," the official said, without detailing Iran's methodology. He did say the building of the target bank began after the 2025 12-Day War.   

⭕️ NEW: Iranian Hotel Strike in Bahrain Injured U.S. Defense Personnel, Diplomatic Cable Comfirms

U.S. lawmakers and mainstream media have described Iranian strikes on Gulf hotels as indiscriminate attacks on civilian targets. But The Washington Post reports that two U.S.… https://t.co/ch17xmxHdb pic.twitter.com/A18A4jd7BK

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) March 2, 2026

The Pentagon response to Wyden was dated April 14. On Thursday, Wyden and a bipartisan group of 13 other senators sent a letter to the Defense department's chief information officer, expressing "serious concern that the [DOD] has not taken basic steps to protect U.S. military personnel from the serious counterintelligence and force protection threat posed by the collection and sale of personal information, including cell phone location data, by data brokers."

This vulnerability was identified at least 10 years ago, when tech contractor Mike Yeagley briefed the Joint Special Operations Command on how enemies could exploit commercially available phone location data to create "pattern of life" profiles of individual service members. The contractor, who first publicized the nature of his 2016 briefing in a 2024 Wired article, showed JSOC's senior officers how he'd tracked phones from US bases that house special ops soldiers to an abandoned cement factory in Syria, which they were using as a forward operating base near an ISIS stronghold in Kobane. The rattled JSOC officers immediately relocated the briefing to a better-secured room. 

For that same article, Wired journalists teamed up with German investigative reporters to acquire a free sample of 3.6 billion coordinates -- some separated by mere milliseconds -- on upwards of 11 million mobile advertising IDs in Germany, covering a two-month period. "Our analysis revealed granular location data from up to 12,313 devices that appeared to spend time at or near at least 11 military and intelligence sites, potentially exposing crucial details like entry points, security practices, and guard schedules," the journalists reported.  

Journalists used commercial data to pinpoint location signals from 800 devices at the US Army's European headquarters at Lucius D. Clay Kaserne (Wired)

In their letter sent Thursday, the Democratic and Republican senators scolded the Pentagon for leaving troops vulnerable:

"DoD officials have not treated this counterintelligence and force protection threat as a five-alarm fire... DoD has known about this threat for over a decade, yet have failed to take meaningful steps to protect our men and women in uniform. That is simply unacceptable."

They urged the Defense Department to take several specific actions, including the disabling of advertising ID on all DOD-issued smartphones, and ordering service members to disable the advertising ID on personal phones taken onto military installations or on overseas deployments. They also called for the Pentagon to remove browsers  "designed to facilitate data collection by Google and other advertising companies, such as Google Chrome, from DOD unclassified computers and smartphones." They concluded their letter by posing five follow-up questions, with a due date of June 26. 

At least 13 American service members have been killed in the undeclared war on Iran, and approximately 400 have been wounded in action. It will likely take further probing by Wyden and others to determine whether it's likely that commercially-available data was used to pinpoint any of their locations. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 19:40

The Loophole That Put Drunk Truckers Back On The Road

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

A federal database built to flag and remove drunk and drugged truckers from U.S. highways used the equivalent of an "honor system" as its last line of defense between a family in a minivan and a substance addict steering an 80,000-pound mass of steel.

Trucks fuel up at the Love's Truck Stop in Springville, Utah, on Dec. 1, 2021. George Frey/AFP via Getty Images

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) launched its Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse in early 2020 to improve road safety by providing employers, law enforcement, and state agencies with real-time information on substance-use violations by commercial drivers.

Truckers caught driving while under the influence, or violating the Transportation Department's alcohol and substance regulations, are flagged in the system with a "prohibited" status and must complete a return-to-duty process to reinstate their commercial driver's licenses.

But what if a current alcoholic or drug addict could immediately get back behind the wheel by paying a third party to simply check off a box inside the database, rather than complete and pass follow-up drug or alcohol testing?

That's how Brandon Blackburn, 34, was able to get back on the road, he told The Epoch Times. Blackburn was arrested last year on charges of driving while impaired in a construction zone with cocaine in his possession, according to the Prentiss County Sheriff's Department.

Blackburn said his "prohibited" status was cleared by another man who simultaneously runs a trucking company and advertises his "substance abuse professional" services across a network of trucking-related Facebook groups.

According to Blackburn and evidence reviewed by The Epoch Times, Blackburn and others appear to operate within a network of actors who have been exploiting loopholes in federal rules to illegitimately clear "prohibited" commercial drivers in the federal Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse.

This was revealed by evidence presented in a multiseries investigation by Rob Carpenter of FreightWaves, a news outlet focused on the global supply chain. The Epoch Times reviewed the evidence collected by FreightWaves, independently verified each facet of the story, and interviewed Blackburn, who confirmed that the scheme worked for him and others.

Blackburn admitted to The Epoch Times that he cleared drivers who had been flagged with drug or alcohol violations even though he didn't have the necessary certification to do so. He claimed some of the people he helped had their licenses incorrectly flagged in the system, and said he was trying to help truckers and veterans in need.

Blackburn describes himself as a small player across a network of actors that operates like a multilevel marketing scheme. He claimed that several others are much more prolific and are still operating.

"We've never seen anything like this before. It sent shockwaves through our industry," Jo McGuire, executive director of the National Drug and Alcohol Screening Association, told The Epoch Times.

The implications are not just grave for road safety, but also for employers who rely on the clearinghouse to avoid hiring drivers who may be at a higher risk of bringing on a multimillion-dollar court settlement in the event of a serious highway accident.

This is how the scheme proliferated in plain sight, and why, despite new and upcoming rule changes to the certification process in the clearinghouse, employers may be unaware they're hiring a potentially dangerous driver.

The Scheme Explained

Once a driver is caught driving under the influence, or is flagged after testing positive for drugs or alcohol, his or her license receives a "prohibited" status from the clearinghouse.

Examples of drug and alcohol violations include having a blood alcohol level of 0.04 or greater while on duty for "safety-sensitive" operations and using any prohibited drugs.

Even driving with sealed alcohol containers in the cab, as long as they are not part of the driver's shipment, counts as an alcohol violation.

In late 2024, the FMCSA updated the clearinghouse to immediately downgrade a commercial driver's license once the driver received a "prohibited" flag, forcing him to start the return-to-duty process to get back on the road.

As part of the return-to-duty process, a driver typically works with his employer to select a substance abuse professional who provides an initial assessment and offers education and treatment recommendations. The process involves six steps, with the driver needing to pass a drug or alcohol test on step five before completing a follow-up testing plan in step six.

The way the federal agency designed the database was critical for how the scheme unfolded. Step five only requires a testing date, rather than a copy of a negative drug or alcohol test. The driver's employer is responsible for verifying the results and entering the date of the negative test.

However, drivers without current or prospective employers may register accounts in the clearinghouse as owner-operators and can designate third-party administrators to complete that part of the process.

This is how the scheme proliferated, based on the evidence reviewed by The Epoch Times. Employers, substance abuse professionals, and third-party administrators were only required to self-certify in the clearinghouse database. No identity verification was involved in the process.

By law, a substance abuse professional must be a licensed physician, social worker, psychologist, certified employee assistance professional, certified drug and alcohol counselor, or state-licensed or certified marriage and family therapist.

But since the clearinghouse allowed users to self-certify, anyone could check the box without having the credentials. The same was true for third-party administrators.

Based on evidence reviewed by The Epoch Times, Blackburn and others appear to have been operating in the clearinghouse with multirole accounts, including as substance abuse professionals, third-party administrators, and employers.

Some Facebook users who publicly advertised Blackburn's services mentioned being out of work when they began the return-to-duty process, meaning they would have had to use a third-party administrator to verify and submit the date for a negative test result.

Several online databases exist for legitimate substance abuse professionals who work with the Transportation Department, including NAADAC's directory and SAPList.com. Blackburn could not be found on either database.

Blackburn said it's easy to circumvent the prescribed clearinghouse process from a basic Google search. He told The Epoch Times that he got involved after seeing the scheme persist from the moment the clearinghouse was launched.

It operates like a multilevel marketing, or "pyramid," scheme, Blackburn said. If you see a user in one of several related Facebook groups advertise helping drivers with the return-to-duty process, and they mention a particular person they worked with, that person is taking a cut.

Multiple users advertising return-to-duty services mentioned Blackburn and others based on hundreds of public Facebook comments that were reviewed for this story.

Blackburn insists he has stopped, but claims the others have not. He said he was struggling with a drug problem, relapsed last year, and that was the reason for his arrest.

Scale

Blackburn said he charged around $100 for his services and never more than $150. The entire return-to-duty program with a legitimate substance abuse professional can cost between $1,000 and $3,000 when evaluations, education, treatment, and tests are included.

A total of 368,984 violations have been reported to the Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse since its launch, according to its most recent monthly summary report.

That tally includes 360,107 drug violations and 8,877 alcohol violations. The drug violations include the use of marijuana (206,394), cocaine (57,075), methamphetamine (29,017), and a long list of synthetic opioids.

As of Jan. 2, 328,431 drivers had been reported to the database with at least one drug or alcohol violation. Of those, 202,345 remain in "prohibited" status with their licenses still downgraded.

Trucks drive away from the Port of Long Beach, Calif., on May 15, 2026. Under the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse, truckers flagged as “prohibited” after impaired driving must complete a return-to-duty process to regain their commercial licenses, but some can reportedly get back behind the wheel by paying a third party to check a box in the database. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 19:15

662 Billion Reasons To Worry: Moody's Raises AI Data-Center Funding Fears As Apollo Shops Huge Anthropic Debt Deal

Unless you have lived under a rock for the last year (or month), you will know that the explosive growth of artificial intelligence is fueling a massive infrastructure buildout.

In a chart book published nearly simultaneously with Moody’s report, Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok worked to put the enormity of data center spending into perspective.

With total capital expenditure on data centers estimated at roughly $646 billion, or about 2% of U.S. GDP, Slok noted that is roughly equivalent to the GDP for Singapore, Sweden, and Argentina. Defense spending in 2025, meanwhile, was around $917 billion.

However, as Moody's warned this week, the aggressive financing structures supporting this explosive growth are creating significant systemic risks that could ripple across global credit markets and the broader economy.

The most recent example of this buildout - and its coincident debt-funding - is the $36 billion debt financing package currently being shopped by Apollo Global Management and Blackstone to enable Anthropic’s large-scale acquisition of Google’s custom TPU chips.

As Bloomberg reports, this complex, high-leverage deal - partially backed by Broadcom - underscores how private equity and specialized financiers are channeling enormous capital into AI hardware and data centers through layered debt instruments.

The move would mark one of the largest-ever private credit deals and also the biggest chip-financing debt transaction.

It aims to tap Broadcom’s credit quality to provide computing-power access to Anthropic, which just eclipsed rival OpenAI in valuation (and its ecosystem has been dramatically outperforming)...

While such deals accelerate AI capacity, they also concentrate risk.

More concerning is the scale of hidden liabilities across the industry.

According to Moody’s Ratings, the five major U.S. hyperscalers (Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Oracle) have accumulated approximately $662 billion in future data center lease commitments that have not yet commenced.

Combined with other commitments, the total undiscounted future lease exposure reaches $969 billion.

To put the scale of this hidden obligation into perspective, Moody’s accounting analysts David Gonzales and Alastair Drake calculated that the unrecorded $662 billion is equivalent to 113% of these five hyperscalers’ most recent adjusted debt.

These obligations remain entirely off-balance-sheet under current accounting rules, despite representing binding long-term liabilities.

But as Gonzales told Fortune in a statement that it’s “not as if [these hyperscalers] have have avoided a liability through structuring,” characterizing the $662 billion at issue as “yet to be on the balance sheet,” rather than missing.

“More accurately,” he added, “they have not yet received the services to trigger this liability as of this time, but they will.”

This accounting deferral masks the true leverage in the system.

As these leases activate over the next decade, they will migrate onto balance sheets, potentially weakening credit profiles, elevating leverage ratios, and increasing refinancing pressures.

While the AI infrastructure boom promises transformative productivity gains, Moody's is basically highlighting that the current funding model - reliant on massive off-balance-sheet debt and complex private financing - builds hidden vulnerabilities into the financial system.

Regulators, investors, and policymakers should closely monitor these exposures.

Heightened Systemic Concerns

• Contagion Risk: Heavy interdependence among hyperscalers, private credit funds, and infrastructure investors means distress at a few large players could rapidly spread through debt markets and counterparty exposures.

• Concentration & Interconnectedness: A small group of tech giants and a limited pool of specialized financiers dominate this financing. Any material setback in AI monetization or power availability could create correlated losses across the sector.

• Broader Market Impact: The $662 billion in off-balance-sheet exposure represents a delayed but massive claim on capital markets. In an economic downturn, forced deleveraging or asset fire sales could amplify volatility, tighten credit conditions, and affect investor confidence well beyond technology.

• External Amplifiers: Power grid constraints, regulatory hurdles, and geopolitical supply chain risks further compound the fragility of these highly leveraged bets.

In a stressed scenario - such as slower-than-expected AI revenue growth (the end of tokenmaxxing), rising energy costs, or higher interest rates - the simultaneous activation of these liabilities could trigger widespread credit rating downgrades and liquidity strains.

Specifically, Moody’s warned that these opaque accounting practices mask the true economic risk facing the tech industry. While leasing reduces upfront capital investments, carrying such massive future commitments severely limits a company’s financial and operating flexibility, especially if AI industry conditions change rapidly.

Because these liabilities are hidden, Moody’s concluded, in its own jargony way, that it is considering new ways to look at this issue.

“The accounting liability is unlikely to reflect certain plausible future scenarios … With this in mind, we will continue to assess cash exposures and debt-like adjustments as time progresses and the dates of new leases draw nearer. We may make a nonstandard adjustment to Moody’s adjusted debt based on our expectation of likely cash outflows.”

Without greater transparency and more resilient capital structures, the race for AI supremacy risks generating systemic stress that could undermine broader economic stability.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 18:50

Japan Crude Imports Fall 66% To Record Low

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Amid the supply disruption in the Middle East, Japan’s crude oil imports crashed by 66% in April from the same month last year, dropping to an all time low, official Japanese data showed on Friday.

Japan imported 4.07 million kilolitres, or about 850,000 barrels per day (bpd), of crude oil last month, down by 65.7% from the April 2025 levels, the monthly petroleum statistics of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) showed.

Crude imports from the Middle East region, which delivered more than 90% of Japan’s total crude imports before the war, plunged by 68% in April from a year earlier.

Japan’s imports from Saudi Arabia crashed by nearly 58%, and supply from the United Arab Emirate (UAE) to Japan plunged by 69.4%, the Japanese government data showed. Of the total severely reduced crude supply, the Middle East continued to account for more than 90% of Japanese crude imports, at 93.7% in April.

Japan in April imported the lowest volume of crude oil from the Middle East on record dating back to 1979 as the Iran war and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz choked supply from the region.

Japan’s crude imports from the Middle East plummeted by 67.2% in April compared to the same month of 2025, provisional trade data from Japan’s Finance Ministry showed last week. The April 2026 volume, estimated in Japan at 3.843 million kiloliters of crude oil, was the lowest since data collection began in 1979.

Japan has just welcomed the first shipment of Middle East crude via the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran war began on February 28.

Japan is also releasing crude from its strategic reserves as part of an IEA-coordinated global effort to release 400 million barrels of crude and oil products.

The ongoing oil stocks release, which is Japan’s biggest ever, is helping Japanese refiners increase throughput. So is alternative supply from producers outside the Middle East, including rare cargoes from Azerbaijan and Latin America.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 18:25

Anti-Trump Entertainers Bolt From Freedom 250 Celebration

Several entertainers abruptly backed out of President Donald Trump-linked Freedom 250 concerts this week after learning more details about the patriotic celebration planned for the National Mall.

As American Greatness reports, the cancellations add to the long-running tensions between Americans and the politically progressive entertainment industry.

Young MC, Morris Day, the Commodores, Bret Michaels, and country singer Martina McBride were among the performers who announced they would no longer appear at “The Great American State Fair,” a series of concerts and events scheduled for June 25 through July 10 in Washington, D.C.

The event is being organized by Freedom 250, a group launched by Trump late last year that describes itself as a “national, non-partisan organization leading the celebration of our Nation’s 250th birthday.”

Trump selected former State Department official Keith Krach to serve as the organization’s CEO.

The cancellations came just one day after organizers unveiled the first wave of performers.

McBride said on social media that she initially agreed to participate because she believed the event would remain politically neutral.

“Yesterday things started changing and what we were told is, in fact, not what is happening,” she wrote Thursday.

Young MC similarly suggested he was uncomfortable with the event’s political ties.

“The artists were never told about any political involvement with the event,” he wrote on Instagram, adding that he hoped to “perform in D.C. in the near future at an event that is not so politically charged.”

Morris Day also confirmed his departure in a brief Instagram statement.

“Contrary to rumor, Morris Day & The Time will not be performing at the ‘GREAT AMERICAN STATE FAIR,’” he posted.

C& C Music Factory issued a confusing statement, distancing themselves from the event:

"As the Creator of C&C MUSIC FACTORY, I can state that we stand for love of all people and races globally and neutrality in all beliefs, in freedom and justice for all humanity"

The greatest lip-syncers ever - Milli Vanilli - are also out:

"The original/real vocalists of Milli Vanilli, Jodie Rocco, Linda Rocco. Brad Howell, John Davis, and Charles Shaw will NOT be performing their hits live at The Great American State Fair. Others using the name 'Milli Vanilli' that appear on the advertisement should be considered a tribute band with no association vocally or musically to our sound or songs."

At least one “I Love the 90s” act will be there: Vanilla Ice.

“He is proud to help celebrate America’s 250th Anniversary!” a representative for the “Ice Ice Baby” rapper wrote in an email to the AP.

“Everyone is welcome to attend and celebrate USA’s Birthday and our Freedom!”

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 18:00

Obama-Nominated Judge Orders Trump's Name Removed From Kennedy Center Building

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

A federal district judge on May 29 ordered that President Donald Trump’s name be removed from the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts and blocked officials from shuttering the venue for two years for renovations.

Obama-nominated, Washington-based Judge Christopher R. Cooper issued an order temporarily halting the closure and preventing the name change.

“Congress gave the Kennedy Center its name, and only Congress can change it,” the judge said.

The new ruling came in response to litigation initiated in December 2025 by Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) who sued Trump and the Kennedy Center board of trustees over its renaming as the Donald J. Trump and John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts. Beatty is an ex officio member of the center’s board of trustees.

Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) (C) and Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.) (C) arrive for an event on Capitol Hill in Washington on Sept. 3, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

“Representative Beatty is entitled to summary judgment on the renaming issue,” Cooper wrote Friday.

“The Kennedy Center’s organic statute makes crystal clear that the Center is to be named for President [John] Kennedy, and it cannot bear any other formal name or public memorial based on the Board’s unilateral say-so,” the judge wrote.

Cooper also ordered that Beatty have her voting rights restored as an ex officio trustee.

“The Center’s organic statute makes no distinction between the powers of general and ex officio trustees,” Cooper wrote.

“Nothing in the statute permits the Board to discriminate categorically between the two as to fundamental trustee rights,” the judge wrote.

“And stripping ex officio trustees of their voting rights runs afoul of common-law trust principles incorporated into the statute, principles which presumptively place trustees on equal footing when it comes to participating in the trust’s administration.”

Days before, the Kennedy Center board had unanimously voted to rename the institution the Trump-Kennedy Center.

That same day, new lettering was installed on the outside of the building along with digital rebranding.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 17:40

Japan Prepares To End Quantitative Tightening Amid Bond Market Turmoil

With Japanese bond yields recently hitting record highs and bond market volatility soaring, overnight Reuters floated a trial balloon that Japan's central bank may pause the unwinding of its massive debt holdings next fiscal ​year, which would give Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi some relief amid growing investor concerns about her growing spending plans.

A pause would mark a turning point in the Bank ‌of Japan's quantitative tightening plan - started in 2024 as part of Governor Kazuo Ueda's efforts to unwind a decade-long, massive stimulus which everyone said would result in failure. Well, there it is. The next step, of course, is more QE.

According to Reuters, which is well known for being the mouthpiece of BOJ insiders, at its June 15-16 meeting, the Japanese central bank will review its bond taper plan running through March next year and lay out a new plan for fiscal 2027. With no change expected to the existing taper plan, markets are focusing on whether the BOJ would keep reducing its monthly bond purchases in fiscal 2027 or maintain the current pace.

While ​there is no consensus yet within the BOJ on the final decision, a pause in taper is increasingly seen as the preferred option with uncertainty over the Iran war keeping ​bond markets jittery, said two sources familiar with the deliberations.

"Markets remain volatile, so there's no need to rush," one of them said on the BOJ's ⁠taper, adding that many market players appeared to favor maintaining the current pace of buying. Ironically, the market volatility is precisely the reason to rush. 

Political considerations may also push the BOJ to pause as rising bond yields threaten to confine Takaichi's spending plans. "What the ​administration wants to avoid most is rises in bond yields," said one of the sources. Of course, if the intention is to avoid bond yields from surging, it's far too late.

Japan's 20Y bond yield rises as high as 3.511%, highest since 1996 as global interest rates go vertical pic.twitter.com/Rc1gKjfGyo

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 13, 2026

Confirming the end of the QT is effectively a done deal, some investors are now calling on the BOJ to pause its bond taper plan, a central bank survey ​earlier this month showed, highlighting the challenge it faces in reducing its massive Japanese government bonds (JGB) holdings. 

Even before the Reuters report, there had already been some indications the BOJ might consider slowing its taper plan amid market uncertainty. A clearer signal on the BOJ's taper plan will come next week, when the central bank releases minutes of its meeting with bond market participants held on May 21-22.

"We've seen a pretty fast rise in bond yields, which makes it hard for investors to buy ​bonds. The finance ministry may be getting worried too," said former BOJ official Nobuyasu Atago. "Given the political headwinds, I see no reason for the BOJ to keep tapering next fiscal year," he said.

Concerns ​over Japan's worsening finances and rising inflation pushed up the 10-year JGB yield to a 30-year high of 2.8% last week, nearing the 3% estimate the finance ministry set in compiling its fiscal 2026 budget. A rise ‌above 3% ⁠would boost debt servicing costs and reduce scope for other spending.

The BOJ's rate-hike decision may also affect its taper plan with an increase in short-term rates to 1% from 0.75% seen as a strong possibility at the June meeting. While the central bank has said its taper program has no monetary policy implications, the case for slowing QT becomes stronger if it pushes through a hike, something it has been woefully unable to do so far despite a collapsing yen. 

"With the bond market so unstable, it would be natural for the BOJ to play it safe and avoid causing undue market turbulence," said Mari Iwashita, executive rates strategist at Nomura Securities, who projects a taper pause ​in fiscal 2027.

"A combination of a taper pause ​and rate hike would be a good ⁠one," as the former will ease upward pressure on yields, while the latter would alleviate concern the BOJ is behind the curve in addressing inflationary risks, she said.

It's not just Japan: rising debt and volatile yields have heightened challenges for central banks unwinding their balance sheets that ballooned from years of heavy asset ​purchases to reflate their economies. In the US, analysts doubt whether new Fed chief Kevin Warsh can push through his calls for a smaller balance ​sheet as U.S. Treasuries lose ⁠their luster.

The BOJ has also been cautious in its QT program which started in 2024, and under which the central bank gradually reduced purchases and currently trims monthly buying by 200 billion yen each quarter. 

Political hurdles for the BOJ's QT have heightened under Takaichi, who has vowed to cut tax and boost spending by issuing even more debt in the world's most indebted economy. 

Taper or not, a reduction in the BOJ's holdings, currently at around 500 trillion yen, will proceed steadily due ⁠to the runoff ​of maturing JGBs that already shaved 20% off its balance sheet from a peak in late 2023.

That's all the more ​reason for the BOJ to maintain the current pace of buying, said former BOJ executive Akira Otani, currently at Goldman Sachs Japan.

"When inflationary risks from the Middle East conflict and the government's proactive fiscal policy are putting upward pressure ​on bond yields, proceeding with further tapering could cause political friction by pushing up yields," he said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 17:20

This Is The Deep State On Parade Like A Naked Emperor

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

In the annals of Deep State WTF-ery, is there a stranger case than CIA officer David Rush turning up with $40-million in 303 one-kilogram gold bars, plus $2-million in cash, plus a stash of 30 mostly Rolex watches?

Well, yeah, the stranger story is how the guy got hired by the CIA in the first place.

Rush was arrested on Monday, May 18, by an FBI SWAT team at his home in Loudoun County, VA. Agents searched the house all day long and found the stash. Rush is currently charged with theft of public money and allegedly falsifying his military and academic credentials to obtain federal employment benefits, including roughly $77,000 in improper military leave pay. He’s scheduled to make a federal court appearance in Alexandria today.

Rush first applied for a job at the CIA in March 2006. He claimed to have a bachelor’s degree in math from Clemson University and a master’s from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI). He was rejected. He reapplied later that same year. Bumped again. He reapplied again in 2009, adding a new credential: that he’d been a US Navy test pilot and flight trainer. This time, he was hired.

Rush’s college credentials were found to be false, but it is unclear when that was discovered. Since he included them in his two earlier 2006 failed applications, why were they not flagged in his successful 2009 application? His claim of being a US Navy pilot was also found to be false (he was an information systems tech in his Navy service). The FBI affidavit unsealed recently details the pattern of lies across all applications.

Understand that CIA vetting procedures are supposed to be exceedingly rigorous. The process is stressful and invasive — many candidates drop out or are weeded out. The background check involves interviews with practically everybody who knows the applicant going back decades, his criminal history, work, financial history, education, military service. The applicant gets a polygraph exam. Even after getting hired, monitoring continues.

Rush was hired at the very start of the Obama admin; Leon Panetta was the newly appointed CIA Director. Wouldn’t you like to hear him ‘splain how David Rush managed to get hired? Was somebody smoothing his way in? Rush rose to become a senior executive service (SES) officer with a top-secret (TS/SCI) security clearance. His exact duties, the division he worked for, his day-to-day responsibilities have not been disclosed.

Rush allegedly requested the gold and foreign currency from the CIA for “work-related expenses” between November 2025 and March 2026. The agency later could not account for the assets or locate records explaining their official purpose. A search of a storage locker at CIA connected to Rush turned up only a small amount of the requisitioned cash.

“There is a whole process that we go through to get that money. I don’t just walk into the logistics office and say ‘Excuse me, I need $100,000 tomorrow.’ There is a form I have to fill out. It’s not a bank vault you walk into. It doesn’t work like that.” — Tracy Walder, 46, a former FBI special agent and CIA officer, quoted in The New York Post.

Wouldn’t you assume that some higher-up CIA officer would have to sign off on such a colossal requisition of gold and money? (And where does the CIA get so much gold on-demand?) Perhaps the very Director of the CIA approved it — which would be John Ratcliffe through 2025 up to right now. Doesn’t he have some ‘splainin’ to do? (Was Rush set-up? Was this a sting?)

Assuming Rush spent some period of time as an entry-level CIA employee, when did his rise to SES level happen? John Brennan became CIA Director in early 2013 (the start of Barack Obama’s second term). What were David Rush’s relations with John Brennan? Was Brennan his mentor? Does the gold stash have any connection with the current legal problems of John Brennan and other former high officials involved in the long-running “grand conspiracy” case about the attempted overthrow of a president?

You might imagine that Rush’s phone and computers were seized in the May 18th raid on his house — though it’s unlikely he used such conventional channels for black ops chatter. It’s conceivable, though, that any alt-communications of his were captured by the vast national security surveillance apparatus, and that DNI Tulsi Gabbard might have come across them this past year. How else might Director Ratcliffe have been tipped off?

This story is not going away. The scale of the grift is spectacular and vivid — 303 gold bars! — like a Hollywood movie. Rush’s explanation of “work-related expenses” sounds preposterous. If the requisitions were made serially, over several months, as appears, then the agency had more than one opportunity to review and question them.

Rush faked his entire back-story. How incompetent (or corrupt) are the agency’s past managers that he got away with it for so long? How many other gross fakers, rogues, grifters, and tools are embedded in the agency, and who are they really working for? The institutional embarrassment is monumental. Trust in the so-called Intel Community is at an all-time low.

Indictments and trials are coming.

This is the Deep State on parade like a naked emperor.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 17:00

One In Three American Men No Longer Working

Via American Greatness,

The number of American men participating in the workforce has fallen to one of its lowest levels in nearly two decades, according to new federal labor statistics.

Just 66 percent of men age 20 and older were employed or actively seeking work as of April, according to data released earlier this month by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. That figure has dropped sharply from 73 percent in 2006 and now sits near levels last seen during the fallout from the 2008 financial crisis.

The numbers mean roughly one in three American men are no longer in the workforce.

The only modern period with lower participation rates came during the economic devastation caused by the 2020 pandemic, when male workforce participation collapsed to 59 percent.

While employment rates gradually recovered during the years following the Great Recession, those gains were wiped out during the pandemic downturn. Participation rebounded somewhat within two years before beginning another steady decline that has continued into 2026.

The downward trend appears ongoing. Male workforce participation fell another full percentage point in April compared with the same period in 2025, according to Labor Department data.

Several economic shifts are contributing to the decline.

Industries that have traditionally employed large numbers of men including transportation, manufacturing and other labor-intensive sectors, have shed jobs over the past year, according to the Washington Post.

At the same time, growing numbers of retirees and male students have reduced the share of men participating in the labor market.

The labor picture for women has followed a different trajectory.

Female workforce participation also declined during the past two decades, though the swings have been less dramatic. Women saw only a 2-point decline during the 2008 recession, compared with a 5-point drop for men.

Women’s labor force participation has also remained more stable since the pandemic recovery, never falling below 56 percent since 2022.

The economy increasingly appears to favor sectors dominated by female workers. Healthcare and education jobs have grown over the past year, helping women capture nearly all recent job gains.

Of the 369,000 jobs added to the US economy since 2025, 96 perent went to women while just 4 percent went to men, according to the Washington Post.

Despite the shrinking share of men participating in the labor force, male unemployment has remained relatively low, hovering between 3 percent and 4 percent since 2021.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 16:20

Trump Refiles Lawsuit Over Wall Street Journal Article Linking Him To Epstein Letter

Authored by Jackson Richman via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump has refiled his $10 billion defamation lawsuit against Dow Jones & Company, publisher of The Wall Street Journal, over an article that alleged he signed a birthday letter sent to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Trump’s legal team submitted the revised complaint exactly on the May 27 deadline set by U.S. District Judge Darrin Gayles. In April, Gayles dismissed the original lawsuit, ruling that Trump had failed to show that The Wall Street Journal acted with “actual malice,” the legal standard required in defamation cases involving public figures.

The updated complaint, which is seven pages longer than the original filing, again argues that Trump suffered significant financial and reputational damage from what his attorneys describe as a “false, defamatory, and malicious” article.

Trump has repeatedly denied authoring the 2003 letter.

In the new filing, Trump’s attorneys argue that only two surviving individuals could confirm whether the letter existed. According to the complaint, Trump “vehemently denied” writing it, while Epstein associate Ghislaine Maxwell allegedly told federal officials she had no knowledge of the document.

The complaint further accuses reporters Khadeeja Safdar and Joe Palazzolo, along with Dow Jones and News Corp., of either knowingly publishing false information or intentionally avoiding evidence that contradicted the story.

The original Wall Street Journal report said that Trump denied both writing the letter and drawing the image.

However, Trump’s legal team states “the Defendants falsely, maliciously, and defamatorily state as fact that regardless of how the alleged letter was prepared, it nonetheless contains President Trump’s authentic signature.”

Responding to requests for comment, publisher Dow Jones declined to discuss the refiled lawsuit but reiterated a previous statement issued in July 2025.

“We have full confidence in the rigor and accuracy of our reporting, and will vigorously defend against any lawsuit,” a company spokesperson said.

In dismissing the original case, Gayles explained that proving actual malice requires evidence that a publisher knowingly reported false information or acted with reckless disregard for the truth. He wrote that Trump’s earlier complaint “comes nowhere close to this standard.”

Gayles also noted that The Wall Street Journal sought comment from Trump, the Justice Department, and the FBI before publication. Trump denied writing the letter, the Justice Department did not respond, and the FBI declined to comment.

The judge further stated that claims the newspaper ignored contradictory evidence were weakened by the article itself, which included Trump’s denial. Allegations of ill intent alone, he wrote, were insufficient to establish actual malice without supporting factual evidence.

Attorneys representing the newspaper have argued that the article’s claims are true and therefore not defamatory. However, Gayles declined to decide those factual disputes at this stage of the proceedings. He said questions regarding whether Trump authored the letter or maintained a personal relationship with Epstein remain unresolved.

To proceed with the lawsuit, Gayles wrote, Trump must provide clear evidence that The Wall Street Journal knowingly published false information or acted with reckless disregard for the truth.

The judge characterized the original complaint as relying on “formulaic” accusations that failed to meet the high legal threshold required for public figures pursuing defamation claims.

Following the dismissal, Trump addressed the case on Truth Social, saying his legal team would submit a revised complaint before the court’s deadline.

“It is not a termination, it is a suggested re-filing,” Trump wrote.

Trump originally filed the lawsuit in July 2025 after The Wall Street Journal published an article about the sexually suggestive letter allegedly bearing his signature in a birthday album created for Epstein’s 50th birthday in 2003.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 15:40

"Closing The Nuclear Fuel Cycle" - Newcleo's $780M War Chest And Oklo Partnership Fuel $2.4B SPAC Debut

It's open season in the nuclear industry for going public, and this week's episode features newcleo, a European lead-cooled reactor developer. 

The Paris-based developer of lead-cooled fast reactors (LFRs) and closed-cycle MOX fuel announced it will merge with NewHold Investment Corp III (ticker NHIC) in a deal valuing the company at roughly $2.4 billion. 

A $220 million oversubscribed PIPE at $10 per share plus up to $209 million from the SPAC trust should deliver as much as $429 million in gross proceeds before redemptions and fees. The combined entity expects to list on Nasdaq under ticker NWCL in the second half of 2026.

Hopefully their transition to public markets doesn't follow the same path as microreactor developer Hadron Energy…

Founded by Stefano Buono (the man who took Advanced Accelerator Applications public on Nasdaq in 2015 and sold it to Novartis for $3.9 billion in 2018), Newcleo has already raised approximately $780 million privately across Europe. It generated roughly $80 million in revenue last year from its vertically integrated supply-chain subsidiaries while building a 900-plus employee team across seven countries and 16 offices. 

The technology: Newcleo’s 200 MW (electric) reactor uses liquid lead coolant. The company highlights that lead is cheap, high-boiling, and chemically inert with water and air. The lead is paired with proprietary MOX fuel (a mixture of uranium and plutonium) fabricated from reprocessed nuclear waste.

Their target for commercial fuel manufacturing is 2031, and they hold a pipeline of 9.2 GW of advanced commercial opportunities, including a state-backed Slovak project for up to four 200 MWe units.

As we recently covered, Oklo was selected by the Department of Energy for advanced negotiations under the Surplus Plutonium Utilization Program; one of five firms tapped to convert up to 20 metric tons of Cold War-era weapons plutonium into usable reactor fuel. Newcleo is Oklo’s fuel-cycle partner on the deal, supplying European MOX expertise and potential project capital.

The two companies already signed a strategic partnership last October that contemplates up to $2 billion in Newcleo-affiliated investment into U.S. advanced fuel fabrication infrastructure, alongside Sweden’s Blykalla.
 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 15:25

Was Amazon's Tokenmaxxing Fiasco Behind Claude's $500M Mystery Bill?

Axios reported this week that an unnamed Anthropic enterprise client managed to run up roughly $500 million in Claude charges in a single month after failing to put usage limits on employee licenses.

The company was not named, but we suspect Blue Origin might not be the only thing that blew up for Jeff Bezos this month.

Just as the Axios report landed with the $500M tidbit, Amazon was shutting down an internal AI-usage leaderboard after employees reportedly began “tokenmaxxing” - routing unnecessary work through AI tools to inflate their usage scores. The result was a perfect case study in what happens when corporate America turns AI adoption into a metric, then acts surprised when employees optimize for the metric instead of the work.

Whether or not Amazon was the mystery Claude whale, its internal AI experiment shows exactly how a runaway enterprise AI bill can happen.

The $500M Claude Mystery

The Axios item was brief, but extraordinary:;

An AI consultant tells Axios one of their clients recently spent half a billion dollars in a single month after failing to put usage limits on Claude licenses for employees. 

So, oops to every CFO who recently approved "AI adoption" as a corporate priority.

In the old software world, when true nerds roamed the land, a bad rollout usually meant paying for licenses employees barely touched. The waste was real, but at least it was mostly static. In the new agentic AI world, a bad rollout - or simply adopting AI for everything - can quickly become devastating: thousands of employees - or autonomous agents operating on their behalf - prompting, testing, summarizing, refactoring, retrying, and spinning up new tasks on usage-based pricing.

That is the heart of the current enterprise AI hangover. Companies spent the past year foisting AI on employees, often without a clean way to separate productivity from dashboard-friendly activity. And now the hangover is here. 

Microsoft has reportedly started canceling most Claude Code licenses and steering developers toward GitHub Copilot CLI. Uber reportedly burned through its entire 2026 AI coding-tools budget by April, with COO Andrew Macdonald saying it was “very hard to draw a line” between rising Claude Code usage and useful consumer-facing output. Meta killed an employee-created “Claudeonomics” dashboard after workers competed to rank among the company’s top AI token users.

Amazon’s Tokenmaxxing Fiasco

Amazon’s version of the problem was almost too on-the-nose.

Earlier this month, Financial Times reported that Amazon employees were using MeshClaw, an internal OpenClaw-style AI agent tool, to inflate AI usage metrics. MeshClaw let employees vibecode themselves agents that could interact with workplace systems, including code deployments, email triage, and Slack-style communications.

The company had also been pushing aggressive AI adoption internally. According to the FT, more than 80% of Amazon developers were expected to use AI tools weekly, and internal leaderboards tracked AI usage. Employees reportedly responded by routing non-essential tasks through AI agents in order to boost their token counts.

They even had an internal leaderboard - KiroRank - that issued nerd points (or whatever) to employees who tokenmaxxed. Apparently it didn't take long for them to realize this was a huge mistake - nuking KiroRank after it encouraged some workers to perform tasks that did not necessarily solve customer or business problems, but did help them climb the rankings. Amazon senior vice president Dave Treadwell reportedly told staff: “Please don’t use AI just for the sake of using AI.”

Amazon later emphasized that KiroRank was an informal employee-created tracker, not a formal performance system, and said it was never intended to promote AI usage for usage’s sake. The company also said it still tracks AI token usage to measure costs, but does not encourage tokenmaxxing.

Why Amazon Tops The $500M Suspect List

Start with the obvious: Amazon has one of the deepest strategic relationships with Anthropic of any company on earth.

Amazon announced in April that it would invest another $5 billion in Anthropic, with the possibility of up to $20 billion more tied to commercial milestones, on top of the $8 billion it had already invested. The same announcement said Anthropic had committed to spend more than $100 billion over ten years on AWS technologies.

That makes Amazon more than an ordinary Claude customer. It is an investor, infrastructure provider, distribution partner, and cloud beneficiary of Anthropic’s growth. 

Then there's the scale. Reuters reported in February that Amazon projected roughly $200 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, up sharply from 2025, as Big Tech raced to build out AI infrastructure. That level of spending needs demand signals. Internal AI usage is one of those signals.

Then there is the timing. Amazon’s MeshClaw usage controversy surfaced in May. KiroRank was deprecated in late May. Axios’ unnamed $500 million Claude bill appeared at the same moment the industry was waking up to the cost of tokenmaxxing.

2 weeks to kill the ROI Golden Goose pic.twitter.com/7wuDMpBNvb

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 29, 2026

So, yeah... 

Circle Jerk Intensifies?

The broader issue is not whether Amazon specifically spent $500 million on Claude in one month. The broader issue is that the AI boom is increasingly built on circular flows of money, usage, and valuation.

Hyperscalers invest billions in model companies. Model companies commit to spend billions back on hyperscaler cloud infrastructure. Enterprises push employees to use the tools. Token consumption rises. Rising usage supports higher revenue projections. Higher revenue projections support higher valuations. Higher valuations justify more infrastructure spending.

On paper, it looks like demand. In practice, some of that demand may be employees and agents burning tokens because management told them usage equals progress.

Reuters recently warned that Anthropic’s explosive growth tells only half the story, noting early signs of corporate AI fatigue even as revenue projections and valuation math move higher. The warning is simple: AI demand may be real, but not all usage is economically productive.

Which is a pretty big narrative killer...  If a developer uses Claude Code to ship a meaningful feature faster, that is adoption. If an employee routes fake busywork through an autonomous agent to climb a leaderboard, that is not adoption. It is metered theater.

The problem is that both show up as tokens.

There's an old idea in economics called Goodhart’s Law: when a measurement becomes the target, it stops being a useful measurement.

In plain English, if you tell employees they will be judged by a number, they will make the number go up - whether or not the underlying business gets any better.

That's exactly the danger with enterprise AI adoption. Token usage can be a useful internal signal. It can show whether employees are experimenting with tools, whether teams are adopting new workflows, and where demand is rising. But once token usage becomes a scoreboard, it no longer measures productivity. It measures willingness to burn tokens.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 14:05

The post Fast-Food Going Down: What We Learned in the April Consumption Data appeared first on CEPR.

Ferrari Vs Tesla: $640K Luce EV Loses Key Speed And Range Battles To Model S Plaid

Authored by Aamir Khollam via Interesting Engineering,

Ferrari's upcoming electric grand tourer, the Luce, has already sparked intense debate online. Much of that attention centers on its unconventional styling. Yet beyond the design discussion, the numbers reveal an interesting comparison against one of the EV market's most established performance sedans: the Tesla Model S Plaid.

The matchup is far from equal in price or positioning. Ferrari plans to launch the Luce at roughly $640,000, while Tesla's Model S Plaid starts near $95,000. Ferrari also intends to keep production limited, preserving the exclusivity tied to the brand. Tesla, meanwhile, sells the Plaid in far greater numbers worldwide.

Still, both vehicles target buyers seeking extreme electric performance, making the comparison difficult to ignore.

Performance Numbers Compared

On paper, Ferrari takes a narrow lead in outright power. The Luce produces 1,050 horsepower from four electric motors, while the Model S Plaid delivers 1,020 horsepower through a tri-motor setup.

Ferrari's approach goes beyond raw output. Each wheel receives its own dedicated motor, allowing advanced torque vectoring and sharper handling control. Ferrari engineers claim the setup will preserve the brand's traditional driving feel despite the shift to an electric platform.

crazy.. pic.twitter.com/DTNVAYNPZX

— Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) May 27, 2026

Tesla counters with proven straight-line performance. The Model S Plaid still launches harder, reaching 60 mph in under two seconds. Ferrari estimates the Luce will hit the same mark in roughly 2.4 seconds. Tesla also claims a higher top speed, touching 200 mph compared to Ferrari's projected 193 mph.

Battery And Charging Edge

Ferrari equips the Luce with a larger 122 kWh battery pack. Tesla's Plaid uses a battery closer to 100 kWh. The Luce also benefits from an 800-volt electrical architecture capable of supporting up to 350 kW DC fast charging.

That charging advantage could reduce downtime during long-distance travel, assuming drivers access compatible high-speed chargers. Tesla's current V3 Supercharger network peaks at around 250 kW.

Despite the smaller battery, Tesla still holds the range advantage. The Model S Plaid carries an estimated range of about 348 miles, while Ferrari targets roughly 280 miles for the Luce. The Ferrari's additional weight likely contributes to the gap. Early figures place the Luce near 4,982 pounds.

Tesla also maintains an advantage in software maturity. The Model S Plaid includes Tesla's Full Self-Driving suite, although the system still requires driver supervision. Ferrari has not introduced a comparable autonomous driving package for the Luce.

Exclusivity Versus Accessibility

The massive price difference ultimately shapes the entire comparison. Buyers could purchase several Model S Plaids for the cost of a single Ferrari Luce.

Yet Ferrari is not chasing the same customer base as Tesla. The Luce competes as much with ultra-luxury brands like Rolls-Royce and Bentley as it does with mainstream performance EVs.

The Luce also represents a major milestone for Ferrari's future. Designed with input from Jony Ive and Marc Newson, the EV signals Ferrari's full entry into the electric era.

Even so, the comparison highlights Tesla's lasting influence on the segment. Years after launch, the Model S Plaid remains the benchmark many high-performance EVs still chase.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 11:40

Clinton-Appointed Judge Temporarily Blocks Trump's $1.776 Billion Anti-Weaponization Fund

A federal judge in Virginia has temporarily blocked the Trump administration's $1.8 billion "anti-weaponization fund," freezing any transfers, claims processing, or disbursements while legal challenges proceed.

JUST IN: Clinton-appointed Judge temporarily BLOCKS the DOJ’s $1.8B “Anti-Weaponization Fund.”

— Jack (@jackunheard) May 29, 2026

The brief order from U.S. District Judge Leonie M. Brinkema of the Eastern District of Virginia...

...says the Trump administration cannot take any action "pursuant to the creation or operation of the Anti-Weaponization Fund, which includes the transferring of money to the Fund; the consideration of any claims submitted to the Fund; and the disbursing of any funds from the Fund."

"...to ensure that no funds are irreversibly disbursed"

New: A federal judge in Virginia has temporarily barred the Trump administration from acting on claims for payouts from the $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization fund” while she weighs a longer-term block; hearing set for 6/12… pic.twitter.com/70NyLtlDIv

— Zoe Tillman (@ZoeTillman) May 29, 2026

The fund, operated through the Justice Department, was created as part of a settlement involving President Trump, his family, and the Trump Organization.

Sec. Bessent on the Anti-Weaponization Fund: "President Trump is a great American who has endured more than 10 years nonstop harassment and weaponization from federal and state government actors. A bad actor at the IRS leaked more than 400,000 tax returns, including the Trump… pic.twitter.com/GQFasifJcS

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) May 28, 2026

Under the settlement framework, individuals claiming to have been victims of politically motivated prosecutions or government abuse would be able to seek compensation, including the 1,500 Jan. 6 defendants whom Trump pardoned.

Any American—Democrat, Republican, Independent or apolitical—can file claims with the Anti-Weaponization Fund, which are then reviewed by a committee of five.

The fund was established as a result of the IRS illegally leaking the tax returns of the Trump family and around 100… https://t.co/6QS6Op6Eas

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 20, 2026

Congressional Democrats have been widely opposed to the $1.776 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund because they say it will serve as a massive "slush fund" for Trump allies.

Brinkema said the order was needed to prevent money from being "irreversibly disbursed" before pending motions are resolved. The fund cannot formally begin distributing money until five commissioners are selected.

She set a hearing for June 12 to hear arguments over whether she should issue a more lasting pause.

Meanwhile, unhinged and left-wing California Gov. Gavin Newsom said his administration will impose 100% tax on any resident receiving these funds. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 11:00

"The Real Part Of This Economy Is Not Doing Well": Ed Dowd Warns 'Just Wait 'Til The AI Bubble Bursts'

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com warned at the beginning of April that the economy was already rolling over. 

He said “Private Credit Problems are Ending the Party.”  Just 10 days ago, BlackRock and other firms with so-called private credit are  locking up investors’ cash because of a wave of redemptions.  Dowd predicted this, and the sagging economy is not going to be getting any better anytime soon. 

If you thought private credit was a drag on the economy, then the Iran war is going to be a boat anchor.  Dowd says:

“The longer this situation persists, the likelihood of oil drifting higher is going to happen.

 We have two scenarios, and one is oil peaks out at $125, and this gets resolved by May.  Inflation would peak around 5%...

We are at the point now, if this does not get resolved soon, oil prices could continue to drift higher...

We have a second scenario where we get $200 to $250 a barrel oil, which was our worst-case scenario. 

If that happens, inflation will peak out at around 11% by our models...”

Martin Armstrong said two weeks ago that gasoline prices could go to $9 a gallon.  Dowd agrees with Armstrong and says you might get $10 a gallon gas in a worst-case scenario.  Dowd adds:

“I see oil going a lot higher, which will cause a tremendous amount of demand destruction and a recession that I think is coming anyway. 

It will be even deeper than we have forecasted. 

It will cause layoffs and economic growth to go into recessionary territory.  The prices of commodities will collapse as deflation sets in.  

The solution to high commodity prices is high commodity prices because it creates demand destruction.”

So, what’s the Fed going to do?  Dowd thinks,

“The Fed could raise rates to combat the headline inflation.  My best guess is they do nothing at the June FOMC meeting. 

They are certainly not going to cut until they see the economic growth slowing...

Depending on this war . . . the real part of this economy, housing, is not doing well and rolling over. 

We are just waiting on the AI bubble to finally burst . . . we are close to that topping out soon.”

Dowd is still bullish on gold and silver long term, but short term, it may get sold off to raise cash like Turkey just did. 

Silver will have stronger headwinds than gold given the deflation that is coming. 

Dowd does not see China’s economic woes getting any better.  Dowd predicted China’s economic problems months ago, and Wall Street is just now catching up on the bad news.  Dowd says,

“China had 8% negative growth in the first quarter.”

Dowd goes into a deep dive on the severe economic problems facing China. 

Dowd points out big problems in housing and says it’s cheaper to rent a house than to own one. 

Dowd also predicts the Fed will be forced to cut interest rates in early 2027 because the deflation will be so severe.

In closing, Dowd says, “This is the normal credit cycle..."

"  The credit cycle is old and aging, and we are seeing the credit cycle get chinks in the armor with the private credit situation, which is effectively frozen.  This was credit growth that happened in 2024 and 2025.”

There is much more in the 44-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with money manager and investment expert Ed Dowd as he explains why we are seeing big trouble for the US economy.   Dowd predicted this was coming in January with his report called “US Economy Outlook 2026.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 10:40

"False": Musk Denies Bloomberg Report About SpaceX IPO Valuation Drop

Summary:

• Musk says the Bloomberg report is "false" 

• SpaceX Reportedly Lowers IPO Valuation Target, as per Bloomberg

Musk Rejects Bloomberg Report 

Yet again, corporate media is pushing fake news against Elon Musk.

This time, Musk called a Bloomberg report that cited unnamed sources and claimed SpaceX had lowered its IPO valuation target "false." 

False

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 29, 2026

SpaceX Reportedly Lowers IPO Valuation Target 

SpaceX is targeting a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion in its upcoming initial public offering, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. This is below an earlier goal of more than $2 trillion.

In practice, the initial IPO valuation target is a marketing range, not a final number. Therefore, any valuation shifts ahead of the trading day would not be unusual. This suggests advisers are calibrating the deal to what investors are willing to absorb, especially given the massive proposed raise of up to $75 billion.

The target is settling lower after consultations with advisers and investors, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information isn't public.

Details of an IPO, such as size and valuation, are typically adjusted ahead of pricing based on feedback from stakeholders, the people said.

SpaceX is seeking to raise as much as $75 billion, people familiar with the matter have said, which would make it the biggest IPO of all time. -BBG

The May 21 SpaceX S-1 filing revealed that Elon Musk's space company is much more than a reusable-rocket and satellite-internet company. It now encompasses AI services, infrastructure, orbital data centers, and a claimed $28.5 trillion total addressable market.

Earlier this month, Reuters reported that the IPO is set to price on June 11, with a June 12 debut. The stock is expected to list on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas under the ticker "SPCX."

Polymarket bets show a 90% chance that SpaceX's market capitalization will be $1.8 trillion on the IPO date.

//--> //--> SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
Yes 90% · No 10%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

There was speculation earlier this week of a SpaceX-Tesla merger in 2027. Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives has those odds at 80%.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 10:07

Kicking The Can On A Ceasefire "Which Does Not Solve Anything"

Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Both Bloomberg and Axios report that the US and Iran have reached a tentative deal to extend the ceasefire by 60 days as they engage in further negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme. However, Tasnim reported that the text of the memorandum of understanding had not been finalized.

US Vice President Vance said that the two sides are still “going back and forth on a couple of language points,” which reportedly includes the wording on Iran’s nuclear capacity. But the Vice President said that Iran appears to be negotiating in good faith, paving the way for Trump’s approval of the ceasefire extension.

While negotiators are trying to dot the i’s and cross the t’s of the memorandum, President Trump has reportedly asked for a couple of days to think about the final deal.

Energy prices fell further on the news that a deal could –again– be imminent, after the US administration made similar claims last week. Brent futures are currently down about 10% on the week. That, in turn, is lifting optimism in other markets. Yields dropped, and green figures returned on stock exchanges.

Admittedly, a 60-day extension would lessen some of the near-term tail risks – although both sides have accused each other of violating the current ceasefire. Just the past day, Kuwait intercepted a missile that Iran had fired at a US base, causing the US to respond with new “defensive strikes” on Iran.

More importantly, a ceasefire does not solve anything, unless the US and Iran manage to agree on the key sticking points during that extended ceasefire.

Treasury Secretary Bessent reminded everyone that Trump’s three red lines are unchanged: Hormuz must reopen, Tehran must end its nuclear programme, and Iran must transfer its highly enriched uranium. As we noted earlier this week, a nuclear deal still seems highly unlikely at this juncture.

Likewise, Iran still believes that it can effectively control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, together with Oman, allowing it to put down toll booths along the strait. Even though this would allow paying ships to cross, that’s not a “reopening” in Trump’s view.

The US imposed sanctions on the Hormuz Strait Shipping Authority, which is supposed to collect the toll. And Bessent warned that “Oman, in particular, should know that the ⁠U.S. Treasury will aggressively target any actors involved –directly or indirectly– in ⁠facilitating tolls for the Strait.” President Trump even threatened to “blow them up” if Oman works with Iran to control shipping through Hormuz.

It still seems unlikely that the key sticking points will be resolved soon. On that basis, we have shifted our baseline for Hormuz to remain closed for up to three more months before we see a crisis resolution. Only if either the US or Iran blinks regarding the nuclear programme, could we see a quicker end to the conflict.

Meanwhile, tensions are rising in other parts of the globe too. Talks between the US and Cuba appear to have stalled, while Cuba and China discussed agricultural cooperation, food shipments, and political support. This increases the risk that the US may resort to military aggression. China, meanwhile, claims that a Dutch frigate entered their waters – which the Netherlands disputed; and a Canadian frigate transited the Taiwan Strait, defying Chinese warnings not to do so.

And, as we’ve noted before, even if the US-Iran conflict is resolved sooner, it would still take a substantial amount of time before energy flows return to some form of normalcy. So, some further inflationary pressure is inevitable.

Policymakers are also starting to realize this. The ECB’s Schnabel noted recently that “even if the war ended today, a lot of damage has already been done to energy infrastructure and global supply chains.” She adds that higher costs will probably trickle through global supply chains and into higher goods prices.

The accounts of the April ECB meeting suggest that Schnabel is not the only policymaker who’s concerned about the size and the persistence of the inflation shock. It therefore looks like a June hike is all but a done deal. According to the minutes, some policymakers said that the decision to hold or hike was already a “close call” for them in April. This group essentially indicated that they would not have opposed a rate hike last month, if this had been proposed as the path forward.

Today’s inflation data are further cementing the case for a rate hike. French HICP inflation rose to 2.8% y/y, while Spanish HICP inflation edged up to 3.6%. Meanwhile, business surveys indicate that companies expect to raise selling prices further – although selling price expectations eased a bit in May, compared to the steep increases in the two months prior.

And, worryingly, consumers’ medium-term inflation expectations have started to pick up alongside the rise in current inflation rates. As Schnabel pointed out, these shifts in consumer expectations could be a first indication that expectations are de-anchoring.

However, we still believe that the current backdrop is less conducive to broader and protracted inflationary pressures than 2021-2022. Yesterday’s business confidence survey indicated that employment expectations continue to score below the long-term average. The labor hoarding index remains above its long-term average, but businesses appear to hoard less labor than before.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 10:00

Russia Warns US Against Sending Thousands More Troops Near Its Borders: Pushing Toward 'Suicidal Conflict'

Russia is deeply alarmed about US plans to deploy thousands of additional troops to NATO's eastern flank member Poland, slamming reports out of Washington as unacceptable and portending an escalation in the Ukraine war.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said at a press briefing on Thursday that sending additional American soldiers to Poland "would result in escalation of tension across Europe" and that Moscow would be forced to take "retaliatory measures".

Getty Images

Given that some 5,000 troops are being moved there from Germany, she did acknowledge that reducing America's troop presense in Europe would overall be "rational, justified, and long-overdue" step toward stabilizing what she called an "imbalanced" security situation created by NATO and Western policies.

Weeks ago, the White House began threatening a significant and historic force reduction from Germany, following Berlin officials' repeat criticisms of the US-Israeli war against Iran. This was initially presented in media reports as part of a broader drawdown from Europe, but now it appears US forces are just being shifted around, and with 5,000 to be placed closer to Russia.

But these thousands more troops in Poland could induce Russia to respond with "military-technical measures." Zakharova in perhaps the most provocative part of her remarks warned that NATO is pushing the continent toward a "suicidal" conflict.

In total, some 10,000 US service members are stationed in Poland, on a regular rotation, and the new Washington deployment would see thousands more added to this - from among the 80,000 deployed across Europe.

Poland shares a border with Russia’s Kaliningrad Region, setting off further concerns about targeting and drone activity: 

The deployment of additional US military forces to Poland could lead to a "qualitative escalation" of tensions between Russia and the West and force Moscow to take retaliatory measures, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Thursday.

Zakharova also said that the number of drone attacks on Russian territory from the direction of Europe and Northern European states was increasing.

Moscow has expressed concern that Ukrainian drones could be using Baltic or other countries' airspace to launch attacks on targets inside Russia, an assertion rejected by Kyiv and the three Baltic countries.

Warsaw has hit back, with Foreign minister Maciej Wewiór having told the Polish news agency PAP that allied troops in Poland were "a necessary reinforcement of NATO's eastern flank" as a result of Russia's aggression in Ukraine, and given the Kremlin's "escalatory rhetoric" towards the alliance.

Wiki Commons

Wewiór additionally said the "real source of escalation and tensions in Europe" remains Moscow's "unlawful and aggressive military actions" – and not legitimate measures taken by NATO countries to defend their populations and borders.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 09:40

Futures Hit Another Record High After Pricing In Same "Iran Deal" Every Day For The Past Month

US equity futures are higher, continuing their slow motion-gamma squeeze into record territory, as traders waited to see whether America and Iran could finally get the peace deal they have already priced in every single day for the past month. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1%, and poised to rise for the ninth consecutive week, the best streak since 2023; Nasdaq futs also have modest gains. In the pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly lower with AMZN (-1.0%), TSLA (-0.7%), AAPL (-0.6%) the laggards even as evidence of relentless demand for AI-infrastructure stocks was on display as Dell jumped 37% after the legacy computer maker gave a sales outlook that far surpassed analysts’ estimates, fueled by servers designed to run AI workloads. MSCI All Country World Index on track for a second monthly gain, both European and Asian markets were higher overnight. Bond yields are flat at 4.44% and the USD remains unchanged. WTI crude fell $1.46 to $87.44, while Brent traded around $92; base metals are all higher; gold added 0.7%. Economic data slate includes April advance goods trade balance and retail and wholesale inventories (8:30am) and May MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers). Fed speaker slate includes Daly (7:45am, 12:40pm), Bowman (9:10am) and Paulson (9:15am)

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Microsoft +0.8%, Nvidia +0.5%, Tesla -0.4%, Apple -0.5%, Meta -0.5%, Amazon -0.7%, Alphabet -0.8%)

• American Eagle shares (AEO) tumbled 11% after the clothing retailer reported total comparable sales for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Autodesk’s (ADSK) falls 7% after its proposed acquisition of MaintainX has been tentatively welcomed by analysts, who see the deal as expensive but representing a strong strategic move.
• Dell Technologies shares (DELL) surge 35% after the Texas-based company raised both its full year revenue and adjusted EPS outlooks on strong demand for its AI-powering servers.
• Elastic (ESTC) is down 5.4% after the software company gave an outlook for adjusted first-quarter earnings that was weaker than expected.
• Gap (GAP) shares fell 15% after the clothing retailer reported its latest earnings with poor performance by the company’s Old Navy brand that weighed on the full-year outlook in an otherwise mixed report.
• Krispy Kreme (DNUT) is up 5% after the doughnut chain’s Director Bernardo Hees acquired $768,718 of stock, according to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
• NetApp (NTAP) rallies 19% after the data storage provider reported its latest earnings with a strong print from the company, showing strong growth.
• Nextpower Inc. shares (NXT) rise 11% after it agreed to buy Prevalon Energy, a joint venture between Mitsubishi Power Americas and EES, for up to $365 million in cash and stock.
• PagerDuty shares (PD) are up 13% after the software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast for adjusted earnings.
• SentinelOne shares (S) fall 12% after the software company gave a second-quarter revenue forecast that was weaker than expected and announced it would reduce its full-time employees by 8%.
• UiPath shares (PATH) are down 4.6% after the software company reported first-quarter results that analysts are generally positive on, although they want to see greater confirmation of durable growth in annualized recurring revenue.
• Viasat (VSAT) falls 7.2% after the wireless communications firm’s fourth-quarter earnings undershot analysts’ expectations.

In other news, space-related stocks gave back some recent gains after Elon Musk’s SpaceX cut its valuation goal to at least $1.8 trillion, according to people familiar with the matter. AST SpaceMobile Inc. fell 13%, while Rocket Lab Corp. slipped 5.3%. APfizer and Innovent Biologics signed a global agreement to develop cancer drugs, including a $650 million upfront payment and up to $9.85 billion in potential milestones. Costco reported higher-than-expected profit in the latest quarter, showing the club chain continues to gain ground among cautious US shoppers. 

A preliminary deal between Washington and Tehran to extend a ceasefire by 60 days is awaiting signoff from President Donald Trump. Vice President JD Vance told reporters Thursday that the parties are “going back and forth on a couple of language points,” including issues relating to Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

The prospect of a peace deal - the same peace deal the market has priced in every day since April - in the Middle East is easing pressure on oil prices and raising conviction that markets’ worst inflation fears wouldn’t come to pass, even as oil flows remain blocked and inventories are getting drained at a record pace. That confidence comes against a backdrop of an unprecedented artificial intelligence-led rally that has seen US-listed chipmakers surge nearly 70% since the start of April. Dell’s mic-dropping earnings print is being seen as evidence of “the latest perceived dinosaur tech to rediscover a new lease of life as an AI powerhouse, following in the footsteps of Intel, Cisco, Nokia, and Lenovo,” notes Emmanuel Valavanis of Forte Securities. 

“Brent below $90 by the end of next week seems at our reach,” wrote Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. “It would create a rather supportive environment should it happen, clearly as oil prices have been the source of most macro fears this year.”

With energy prices coming off the boil, investors have begun to dial back expectations of a stagflationary shock for the global economy. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said it’s too early to conclude that interest rates need to rise, remarks that validated a six-day run of gains in Treasuries through Thursday.

“If a deal is agreed upon, we should see another leg higher in risky assets and lower in rates,” noted Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist for Europe at Jefferies. “Positioning suggests that the rates market should see a greater reaction than equities.”

The fact that the market has no clear view on the extent of the consequences of the conflict is a reason for caution, said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at MPPM. “Due to past disappointments, euphoria remains rather subdued,” he said. “Short-term price fluctuations are not yet sufficient to provide lasting stability to oil-dependent stocks.”

Info Tech has led sector gains month-to-date on the back of the AI narrative backed by strong earnings, supportive valuations and momentum. BI quantitative strategists note that since the launch of the Bloomberg AI Index in April 2015, a monthly rebalanced portfolio of high-momentum AI names has delivered a remarkable 41.02% annualized return on 28.69% volatility, equating to a Sharpe ratio of 1.43.

“The market is looking for an excuse to trend higher,” Pooja Malik, partner at Nipun Capital, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. Still, “while the AI rally, both from a fundamental and a sentiment perspective, has a huge amount of momentum, the inflation risk is real. If that results in interest rate hikes, that itself could act as a big break on this whole AI tech positive momentum,” she added.

Tech is likely to remain in the headlines over the weekend and into next week, with Nvidia’s Jensen Huang leading a parade of AI computing leaders in Taiwan for Asia’s biggest technology showcase, Computex. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 0.6% to erase losses for the week.  Travel and leisure shares are among the biggest gainers, as Brent crude fell to $93 per barrel.  Thematically, Luxury, Ceasefire, Software and Momentum Short are among the top performing baskets. Germany Unemployment Rate printed 6.3% vs, 6.4% survey and 6.4% prior. German regional CPI released this morning were mostly softer than last month. May Tokyo CPI prints 1.4% vs. 1.6% survey vs. 1.5% prior. Here are the top movers:

• Ocado shares jump as much as 14% as the online food retailer enters a partnership with Asda to develop the supermarket’s online business across the UK with the Ocado Smart Platform
• CTS Eventim shares rise as much as 13%, the most since November 2020, after the events firm reported first-quarter sales and Ebitda that both beat consensus estimates
• Vivendi shares rise as much as 8.4% after a press report strengthened the case of minority shareholders seeking a buyout from Bollore SE, CIC CIB argues in a note
• BAM Groep shares rise as much as 17% to their highest level since 2008, after Oddo BHF double upgraded the stock to outperform on better-than-expected UK profitability and lower risks from legacy projects
• Ceres Power gains as much as 4.9% after Berenberg lifted its price target on the stock, saying the clean-energy technology developer is a beneficiary of the AI and data center boom
• Dottikon Es shares fall as much as 20%, the most on record, after results from the Swiss pharmaceutical ingredients firm that Zuercher Kantonalbank called disappointing at all levels except for cash flows
• Wickes and B&M European shares fall as much as 6.6% and 3.0% respectively as Deutsche Numis analysts cut their recommendation on both to sell on concern about the effect of hotter inflation on lower income consumers and big ticket spending

Earlier in the session, Asian equities rebounded as a tentative US-Iran deal to extend their ceasefire revived appetite for risk assets and caused oil prices to drop. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 2.1%, with most stock benchmarks in the region in the green. South Korea’s Kospi gauge led the pack with a gain of 3.6%. A rally in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix has forced some funds bound by a 10% single-stock cap rule to to reshuffle their portfolios. Meanwhile, Asian computer-related stocks advanced after Dell shares soared in extended trading on raised guidance due to strong demand for its AI-powering servers.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up by 0.1% with New Zealand dollar outperforming after central bank comments.

In rates, treasuries narrowly mixed, keeping yields within a basis point of Thursday’s closing levels, with oil at a six-week low after the US and Iran tentatively agreed to extend a ceasefire by 60 days. US 10-year yield near 4.44% as European bond yields edging lower in spite of hotter inflation readings in France, Spain and Italy, with Germany the only outlier. US curve spreads are marginally wider, also within a basis point of Thursday’s close. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Almost $7 billion was priced Thursday, taking weekly supply over $40 billion. Borrowers paid about 2bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.1 times covered. Early dealer forecasts for June US high-grade supply are in the $130 billion-$135 billion range, versus $109 billion in June 2025. Focal points of US session includes several Fed speakers and potential for buying tied to month-end index rebalancing. 

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down 1.9% on optimism the Strait of Hormuz may soon reopen. Gold prices moving higher and back above $4,500/oz.

Economic data slate includes April advance goods trade balance and retail and wholesale inventories (8:30am) and May MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers). Fed speaker slate includes Daly (7:45am, 12:40pm), Bowman (9:10am) and Paulson (9:15am)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Iran and US reach deal to extend ceasefire, pending Trump's approval: RTRS
• Bond market volatility is boosting the case for Japan's central bank to pause the unwinding of its massive debt holdings next fiscal year, which would give Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi some relief amid growing investor concerns about her spending plans. RTRS
• China is targeting billions held offshore in the biggest crackdown in decades, with ramifications for the financial advisers and funds that help manage money overseas. BBG
• Samsung Electronics Co. has begun shipping samples of the industry’s most advanced memory to customers, taking an early lead in a race to supply the essential components for AI accelerators made by the likes of Nvidia Corp. BBG
• Apollo Global Management Inc. and Blackstone Inc. are working to bring additional investors into a roughly $36 billion debt financing deal to help Anthropic PBC build out its AI infrastructure. BBG
• France’s economy unexpectedly shrank in the first quarter, with households reining in spending as consumer confidence slid. BBG
• Tokyo’s key inflation gauge cooled to the slowest pace in four years, with the consumer price index excluding fresh food rising 1.3% in May from a year earlier. BBG
• Inflation in France, Italy and Spain jumped in May, reinforcing the case for the ECB to raise interest rates in June. BBG
• Americans are saving less as the everyday cost of living rises and wages struggle to keep up. The personal savings rate — defined as the share of income Americans have after taxes and expenses — hit 2.6% in April, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on Thursday. That’s down from 3.2% in March, and 5.8% a year prior. CNBC
• Chevron chief executive Mike Wirth has warned oil prices are likely to rise over the next two months as crude inventories continue to decline due to the Iran war. FT
• US State Department designates Brazilian criminal organisations Comando Vermelho and PCC as specially designated global terrorists, effective June 5th.
• Heading into month-end, Goldman estimates $14 billion of US equities to sell from US pensions given the moves in equities and bonds. This expiry is the 12th largest non-quarterly sell estimate on record (since 2000). 

Iran War

• Many points regarding the Iranian nuclear file have been resolved; Iran has agreed to international oversight of its nuclear facilities to prevent their dismantling, Al Arabiya reported citing sources. Iran wants to transfer the enriched uranium to China with a commitment not to deliver it to America.
• Chairman of the Iranian National Security Committee of the Iranian Parliament said there are no plans to transfer enriched uranium out of the country, Asharq reported.
• Iran Deputy for Foreign Policy and International Security Ali Baqeri held separate meetings in Moscow with the Foreign Policy Advisor to Brazil's President and the Secretary General of Egypt's National Security Council.
• IRGC Commander said Iran forces are ready to act on Supreme Leader's order and enemies should not make mistakes as they will get themselves and others into trouble.
• Iran military source said US drone was intercepted near Bushehr in southern Iran, according to Al Jazeera.
• US Vice President Vance said that US President Trump is not yet ready to endorse the Iran agreement, while Vance noted that US and Iran made a lot of progress towards a ceasefire deal, according to AFP. Vance said US and Iran are at odds on uranium enrichment and stockpiles, according to SNN.
• White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy Stephen Miller stating in an interview with Fox News that US President Trump is directly involved in negotiations with Iran.
• US President Trump said we completely sank the Iranian Navy and destroyed their air force, did not target all of Iran’s military leadership so that what happened in Iraq would not be repeated.
• US military said Iran's state TV claim that Iranian forces downed a US aircraft near Bushehr is false and no US aircraft was shot down by Iran, with all US air assets are accounted for.
• US VP Vance said US and Iran are exchanging proposals regarding some drafting points including issue of enrichment, adds time is still early to know when an agreement with Iran will be reached and if it will happen at all.
• US Treasury imposes fresh sanctions targeting Iran's military oil sales, according to Reuters. IRNA reported US sanctions 25 individuals, firms and vessels over Iran oil.
• US President Trump said that US has all the cards, Iran has been defeated militarily, according to a Fox interview.
• Al Hadath posted Iranian television reported “the downing of an American fighter jet” in the vicinity of Bushehr, with no American confirmations.
• US official denies what Iranian TV announced about downing any American plane near Bushehr, according to Al Hadath.
• Israel's Channel 12, citing military sources, said "The army recommends to the political leadership intensifying the air and ground strikes in Lebanon".

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks headed into month-end on the front foot as the region took impetus from the gains stateside, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posted fresh record highs amid reports of a tentative agreement regarding an MOU for a 60-day US-Iran ceasefire extension and to launch negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme, although it still needs approval from US President Trump, while Iranian sources also pushed back and stated it was not finalised. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in the mining, materials and resources industries, while the energy and defensive sectors were at the other end of the spectrum as geopolitics and oil moves remained the main catalyst for price action. Nikkei 225 rallied back above the 66,000 level amid lower oil prices and following a slew of data, including softer Tokyo CPI, lower Unemployment, and better-than-expected industrial output & retail sales. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the mainland lagged and with headwinds from earnings, as automakers were pressured following weak results from XPeng, while sentiment was also not helped by trade frictions, with the EU set to discuss restrictions on Chinese imports.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said he is extremely concerned about speculative moves in the FX market; won't comment on FX levels and intervention. Government stance is to always take appropriate FX action.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said we'll consider cost risk balance in reference to issuing bonds and to engage in dialogue with market on bond management, while she declines comment on future bond maturities at this time. said:. It's important to have broad bond investor base. Will continue appropriate debt management policies.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said Japan can take decisive action on FX volatility, while she declined to comment on whether intervention has taken place or not.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) are firmer across the board, attempting to rebound from recent losses and as markets digest reports that the US and Iran are nearing an agreement to extend the ceasefire. (See the commodities section for details.) From an index standpoint, the CAC 40 (+1%) outperforms in Europe whilst the FTSE 100 (+0.2%) lags vs peers, given its exposure to energy names. European sectors hold a positive bias. The cyclical industries (Consumer Products / Travel & Leisure / Autos) top the sectoral list, whilst the likes of Energy and Utilities hold towards the bottom of the pile. The Energy sector, unsurprisingly, has been dragged down by losses across the underlying oil complex.

Top European News

• Communications between former UK Minister Wes Streeting (potential PM candidate) and Peter Mandelson will be published next week, The Sun reported.

FX

• G10s are mixed against the Dollar. Kiwi leads after hawkish RBNZ speak overnight after the hawkish-leaning RBNZ hold early in the week, while Sterling lags after Cable dipped below its 200DMA.
• The Greenback is a touch firmer in a rebound from hefty losses on Thursday, when the DXY closed 0.6% from highs. (See Commodities on the headline feed). In short, a deal seems near, but uncertainty remains over whether Trump will sign off on the proposal and whether Tehran will formally endorse the reported terms. Aside from US-Iran, eyes are also on tensions between NATO’s Romania and Russia after a drone hit a residential building in Romania's Galati. DXY is firmer by 0.2% within 98.95-99.19 parameters.
• French, Spanish and German state inflation imply cooler German nationwide (due 13:00 BST), and EZ (due Tuesday) prints. French GDP: Final measures softer than expected. Q1 rate was revised into contraction from flat, yearly basis was also revised a touch lower. French HICP: Softer than expected and ticks up from the prior. Spanish HICP: Ticks up a touch on a yearly basis, in line with expectations, the monthly rate falls a touch beneath expectations and previous. German CPI: Implies the nationwide rate (due at 13:00 BST) will cool at a faster rate than expected. Limited moves were seen on the metrics with EUR/USD falling around 15 pips from 08:00BST. ECB pricing for June continues to price a c.89% probability of a 25bps hike.
• Tokyo CPI softened across the board in May, with core CPI slowing to 1.3% Y/Y from 1.5%, below expectations of 1.5%. The downside was largely driven by government subsidies on utilities and education costs. The release marks a fourth consecutive month of Tokyo core inflation running below the BoJ’s 2% target and contrasts with stronger activity data elsewhere in the economy. For the BoJ, the print provides ammunition for doves arguing for patience. Markets continue to expect the bank to raise rates at the June confab, with 18bps, or 71% probability of a 25bps hike. We expect the release of data which could show intervention occurred in April, which is due around 11:00 BST. USD/JPY trades unchanged within a narrow 18-pip 159.20-159.38 range.
• Kiwi is the best G10 performer after hawkish speak from RBNZ officials overnight. Breman (Consensus voter) said she sees ongoing uncertainty around inflation and that, on balance, the OCR is likely to increase. Assistant Governor Silk (Consensus voter) said she did not think interest rates need to increase yet, though she cautioned that the bias is for rate hikes in the coming meetings. As such, following the hawkish speak from non-dissenting members, the bias for July is tightening with markets assigning a 70% probability of such action.

Central Banks

• Fed's Kashkari (voter) said it is now unclear what the future path of monetary policy will be due to the Iran war; it is premature to conclude that the Fed needs to raise rates immediately after the April PCE inflation data. Speaking on PCE data, Kashkari said it makes him pay even more attention to inflation risks.
• Former BoJ Board Member Sakurai said BoJ will likely raise rates in June, Bloomberg reported.
• ECB’s Panetta said medium-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored to target. For the June rate decision, it is crucial to assess the extent of the pass-through of higher energy prices. The forward-looking picture seems to call for a recalibration of the monetary policy stance. ECB will act in a timely and measured manner to stop the energy shock from turning into persistent inflation. Consumers’ inflation expectations are rising and firms have already started planning price increases.
• BoE Governor Bailey says have to monitor the situation in the Middle East and how it affects the UK economy and inflation very closely and adjust policy as required. Having taken expected cuts off the table for now, we have already tightened policy considerably in response to the shock relative to what had been expected by markets. Uncertainty about the strength of second-round effects means that monetary policy needs to balance the costs of leaning too little against these effects against the costs of responding too much. Tolerating temporarily above-target inflation to provide some support for the real economy is an appropriate way to approach the trade-off. But that tolerance would weaken if signs of second-round effects begin to emerge. Higher inflation expectations are not coming through in wage expectations and settlements. Hope a fall in UK bond market curve will go on but depends on events in the Middle East. Markets "obviously" see pressure on fiscal plans of government from Iran war impact.
• RBNZ Governor Breman said sees ongoing uncertainty around inflation and that on balance, the OCR is likely to increase.
• RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk said did not think interest rates need to increase yet, but inflation pressures are building in the near term, adds looking at high frequency data for July decision, bias is we're going to see rate hikes in coming meetings.
• RBNZ's Gourley said rates likely to rise sooner rather than later, but speed and size of any increase will depend on data.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8176 vs exp. 6.7685 (prev. 6.8240).
• Riksbank Financial Stability Report: The war in the Middle East entails risks to financial stability. The financial system has functioned well, but uncertainty is high. Favourable initial position for the Swedish financial system but risks remain. Maintains the CCyB at 2%.

Fixed Income

• A modestly bearish start to the day for fixed income, as we ease modestly off the post-Axios peaks on Thursday and continue to await the assessment of US President Trump on the MOU. Note, a recent dip in energy has provided some modest support.
• USTs at the lower end of a 109-31 to 110-06 band, having faded from Thursday's 110-07+ WTD peak. The docket for the US ahead is primarily waiting for Trump to comment on the MOU situation, and as such USTs may be relatively rangebound until an update occurs. That aside, we look for remarks from various Fed speakers. This morning, Kashkari (2026) said it is unclear what the future path of policy is and, in the context of April's PCE, that it would be premature to conclude they need to tighten immediately.
• Bunds are in line with the above for the most part, but have been moved about a touch by European data for May. At first, the benchmark found itself at a 126.05 trough with downside of just under 15 ticks, having also faded from Thursday's 126.47 best; note, that was a tick shy of Monday's high and the WTD peak. Thereafter, EGBs saw some modest upside on the cooler-than-expected French preliminary inflation print for May. Albeit, the move was only c. 10 ticks in Bunds and OATs, as prices lifted from the prior level. Next up was Spain, which printed as expected at a harmonised level and a touch cooler on the headline Y/Y. Note, the core figure ticked up to 2.9% (prev. 2.8%). Modest two-way action followed the data. Followed by Germany, where the state figures came in cooler than the prior level and have shifted the mainland consensus to a cooler print, vs pre-state forecasts for another 2.9% Y/Y figure. Finally, Italy was hotter than expected for all components aside from the headline Y/Y.
• We await the German nationwide figure at 13:00BST before assessing next week's EZ HICP. As it stands, Bunds are just off a 126.33 high, lifted alongside peers following a bout of energy pressure.
• Gilts started the day unchanged before experiencing some modest pressure in line with the slight overnight bias in peers, moving to an 88.48 trough. Since, BoE's Bailey spoke and his remarks perhaps have a slight dovish skew, as he noted that the BoE removing expected cuts has already "tightened policy considerably" and tolerating temporarily above target inflation to help the economy is an appropriate approach. Albeit, Bailey made clear that such tolerance would erode if "signs of second-round effects begin to emerge".
• Japan sold JPY 2.1tln 2-year JGBs b/c 3.70 (prev. 5.24), average yield 1.369% (prev. 1.407%). Lowest accepted price 100.04 (prev. 99.980). Weighted average price 100.06 (prev. 99.985). Tail in price 0.02 (prev. 0.005).
• Australia sold AUD 1bln 2.75% November 2029 bonds b/c 3.67, avg yield 4.4692%.

Commodities

• The week was marked by a sharp flare-up followed by renewed optimism around diplomacy. Following yesterday’s Axios reports regarding a 60-day MoU framework, Iran’s Tasnim reported that the text of the possible memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran had not been finalised or confirmed. Uncertainty remains over whether Trump will sign off on the proposal and whether Tehran will formally endorse the reported terms. This morning, there were mixed reports regarding the uranium file, in which Iran rebuffed reports that it wants to transfer the enriched uranium to China with a commitment not to deliver it to the US.
• Elsewhere in geopolitics, a Romanian radio station reported that a drone hit a residential building in Romania's Galati, near the border with Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Rutte affirmed "NATO’s absolute solidarity with Romania", and added that "NATO stands ready to defend every inch of Allied territory"; "will continue to enhance our readiness to deter and defend against any threat".
• The crude complex has been choppy this morning, with initial strength earlier in the session now entirely eroded; as it stands, benchmarks are towards session lows. WTI Jul currently trades towards the lower end of a USD 87.17-89.01/bbl range, while Brent Aug sits in a USD 91.28-92.95/bbl. Dutch TTF trades almost 2% firmer north of EUR 47.50/MWh.
• Spot gold continues the post-PCE rebound seen yesterday, with prices modestly firmer intraday above the USD 4,500/oz level in a USD 4,488-4,530/oz range. Spot silver, conversely, is lower with the precious metal towards the bottom of a USD 75.08-76.44/oz range.
• Base metals are mostly but modestly softer as traders look ahead to further geopolitical headlines, with price action rather contained at the time of writing. 3M LME copper trades towards the middle of a narrow USD 13,653.93- 13,748.38/t range.
• Kazakhstan Energy Minister said planned maintenance at the Kashagan oil field (400k bpd) is likely to be delayed until 2027.
• Commerzbank expects copper to rise to USD 14,250/ton by mid-2027 and Brent crude to reach USD 90/bbl by end-September before declining to USD 85/bbl by year-end.

Trade/Tariffs

• EU Commissioners will meet for a "orientation debate", which will cover the investigation of Chinese trade practices and an "overcapacity instrument", Politico reported; two probes re. chemicals are already being considered.
• China will retaliate against EU's overcapacity tool and may probe EU supply chains, according to state-linked Yu Yuantan.

Russia-Ukraine

• Romanian President said the unprecedented nature of the drone incident requires a firm, coordinated response at both the national and international levels; Romania summoned Russia's ambassador.
• European Commission President von der Leyen said the EU is preparing the 21st package of sanctions on Russia. EU will bolster security and deterrence, particularly on its eastern border, while maintaining pressure on Russia.
• Ukraine said that Russia carried out a drone strike on a Turkish vessel overnight.
• Fuel storage facilities in Russia’s Yaroslavl region were hit by drones.
• Romanian radio station reported a drone hit a residential building in Romania's Galati, close to the border with Ukraine.
• Currently no plans to have an extra NATO North Atlantic Council, Free Radio's Jozwiak reported.
• NATO Secretary General Rutte affirms "NATO’s absolute solidarity with Romania"; adds "NATO stands ready to defend every inch of Allied territory"; "will continue to enhance our readiness to deter and defend against any threat".
• EU Foreign Policy Chief Kallas said Moscow cannot be allowed to breach European airspace with impunity following the drone incident in Romania.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Apr P Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.8%, prior 1.3%
• 9:45 am: May MNI Chicago PMI, est. 50.3, prior 49.2

Central Bank Speakers

• 12:00 am: Fed’s Mary Daly Speaks at Reagan National Economic Forum
• 2:00 am: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks in Moderated Event in S. Korea
• 6:50 am: Fed’s Schmid Speaks in Reykjavik
• 7:45 am: Fed’s Daly Speaks in Fox Business Interview
• 9:10 am: Fed Supervision Vice Chair Bowman Speaks in Reykjavik
• 9:15 am: Fed’s Paulson Speaks on Economic Outlook
• 12:40 pm: Fed’s Daly Speaks at Reagan National Economic Forum

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we go to press this morning, markets have continued to rally amidst widespread reports that the US and Iran are on the verge of a 60-day ceasefire extension that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. So that’s led to mounting optimism about an end to the conflict, with Brent crude oil falling -0.62% yesterday to a one-month low of $93.71/bbl. Moreover, that momentum has continued overnight, with Brent down another -1.40% to $92.40/bbl.

With oil prices coming down, that’s meant investors have started to price out the more stagflationary outcomes for the global economy, with a clear rally across multiple asset classes. In fact, the positivity saw the S&P 500 (+0.58%) hit another record yesterday, advancing for a 6th consecutive session, with futures up another +0.05% this morning. Similarly for bonds, the 10yr Treasury yield (-3.5bps) posted a 6th consecutive decline to 4.45%, and this morning they’re down another -1.2bps as well. So even before the formal confirmation of any deal, there’s already been a strong reaction in markets.

That momentum has continued in Asia this morning, where most of the major equity indices have risen. Indeed, the Nikkei (+2.61%) and the KOSPI (+3.17%) are both on track for a new record, whilst the Hang Seng (+1.11%) has also posted a solid advance. There’s been a bit more weakness in mainland China however, where the CSI 300 (+0.06%) is only up slightly, whilst the Shanghai Comp (-0.37%) has fallen back. But generally the mood has remained positive, with a further boost from the latest data from Japan overnight. In particular, the Tokyo CPI print for May was softer than expected, with headline inflation unexpectedly slowing to +1.4% (vs. +1.6% expected), whilst core-core inflation fell to +1.6% (vs. +1.8% expected).

The initial catalyst for this latest rally was an Axios report, which said a deal had been reached on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire, with negotiations also starting over Iran’s nuclear program. According to the US officials cited in the article, they said the deal terms were “mostly agreed as of Tuesday”, but that it still needed President Trump’s approval. And the report also said the memorandum would say that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be “unrestricted”.

Later in the day, a similar message was reported by other outlets. For instance, Bloomberg reported that the US and Iran had reached a “tentative deal” on a 60-day ceasefire extension, with further talks on Iran’s nuclear program. Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance said that although they were “not there yet” on a deal, the US was “getting very close”, which further cemented the optimism. Clearly the details will be important, but US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that Trump’s three “red lines” for a deal are for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, turn over its enriched uranium and end its nuclear program. And Bessent also posted earlier in the day that the US would “not tolerate any effort to impose a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz.”

Those headlines helped to drive a sharp move lower for oil yesterday. So Brent crude pared back its earlier gains to close -0.62% lower, hitting a one-month low of $93.71/bbl, with further declines overnight to $92.40/bbl. Indeed, it also means that oil prices are down over -18% over May as a whole, which would make this the biggest monthly decline since March 2020, back when the Covid-19 pandemic began and the world moved into lockdowns. And in turn for bonds and equities, there was growing relief that oil prices were coming down and the more stagflationary scenarios would be avoided.

Whilst the geopolitical headlines provided the main boost to markets yesterday, they got further support after the latest US PCE inflation print was softer than expected, easing concern around the need for rate hikes. The release showed that headline PCE was only up +0.4% in April (vs. +0.5% expected), whilst core PCE was up +0.2% (vs. +0.3% expected). So that led investors to dial back expectations for a Fed rate hike, with the probability of a hike by December down to 59% by the close, having been at 62% the previous day. Fed officials also didn’t sound in a rush to hike either, with NY Fed President Williams saying that monetary policy “is right where we want it to be”. Admittedly, there was discussion of a hike, with St Louis Fed President Musalem acknowledging there “there is a scenario where the economy might require a rate increase”, but that was still conditional.

Ultimately, the combination of that downside inflation surprise and hopes for a US-Iran deal meant US Treasuries put in another strong performance yesterday. So the 10yr yield (-3.6bps) fell back to 4.45%, posting a 6th consecutive decline for the first time in over a year, and they’re on track for a 7th decline this morning. In addition, there was further downside pressure on yields after some of the US growth data was a bit weaker than expected. For instance, the weekly initial jobless claims rose to 215k in the week ending May 23 (vs. 211k expected). And if we look further back, the second GDP estimate for Q1 showed that growth was weaker than previously thought earlier this year, only running at an annualised +1.6% (vs. +2.0% before).

US equities also put in a solid performance, with the S&P 500 (+0.58%) at another record thanks to the geopolitical headlines and more dovish rates pricing. Moreover, the index is now up +10% YTD for the first time, and there were fresh records for the NASDAQ (+0.91%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.57%) as well. But for European equities there was a much weaker performance, with the tech outperformance unable to prevent the STOXX 600 (-0.49%) falling to a one-week low.

Otherwise in Europe, the easing inflation risk meant that sovereign bonds continued to rally. UK gilts saw the biggest outperformance, continuing their pattern of seeing the biggest moves in either direction since the Iran conflict began. So the 10yr gilt yield (-4.4bps) fell to a one-month low of 4.81% by the close. And it was a similar story across the rest of Europe, with yields on 10yr bunds (-2.5bps), OATs (-2.8bps) and BTPs (-2.4bps) falling back as well.

Those bond moves came as investors also dialled back the prospect of rapid ECB hikes this year. For example, the amount of hikes priced by the December meeting was down to 55bps, down -2.5bps on the previous day. Interestingly though, the accounts from the ECB’s last meeting in April were published yesterday, which said that “A number of members noted that the decision was a close call and that they would not have opposed raising rates at the current meeting had this been on the table.” However, it ultimately said that “all members were willing to rally behind the decision to keep policy rates unchanged”, so long as the communication stressed a commitment to ensuring “that inflation stabilised at the target in the medium term.” Looking forward, markets continue to see an ECB rate hike in June as highly likely, priced as an 89% chance as of yesterday’s close, which would be their first hike since 2023.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the flash CPI prints for May from Germany, France and Italy, along with German unemployment for May. In the US, we’ll also get the advance goods trade balance for April. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Kashkari, Schmid, Bowman, Paulson and Daly, the ECB’s Panetta, Radev and Muller, and BoE Governor Bailey.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 08:29