Individual Economists

Bitcoin, Ether Soar As ETFs Clock Second-Biggest Day Of Inflows Ever

Zero Hedge -

Bitcoin, Ether Soar As ETFs Clock Second-Biggest Day Of Inflows Ever

Bitcoin and Ether investors piled into their respective crypto-themed funds on Thursday, marking their second-largest daily inflows since their inception.

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds inflows totaled $1.17 billion, with $448 million coming from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) and $324 million from Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, according to Farside Investors. The near-record inflows came as Bitcoin topped $113,800, setting new highs and continuing to rally into Friday.

CoinTelegraph reports that the inflows come second to the $1.37 billion recorded on Nov. 7, 2024, when Donald Trump won the US presidential election.

Meanwhile, Ether spot ETFs witnessed a total net inflow of $383.1 million on Thursday, which also marks the second-highest net inflow in history for the funds.

The lion’s share of inflows came from BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA), which saw $300.9 million in net inflows — its highest daily inflow on record.

In a Friday X post, NovaDius Wealth Management president Nate Geraci said the near-record inflows occurred despite legacy financial advisers’ hesitation to offer Bitcoin or Ether spot ETFs.

“Major platforms such as Vanguard are still gatekeeping these ETFs,” Geraci added.

Bitcoin demand beating production

Both Bitcoin and Ether spot ETFs are absorbing the net issuance of their respective coins.

In the past 24 hours, ETH net issuance stood at 2,110 ETH, worth approximately $6.33 million, according to the Ethereum tracking website Ultra Sound Money. 

This far exceeds Thursday’s total net inflow into Ether spot ETFs, which stood at $383.1 million.

Meanwhile, Strategy and the US Bitcoin ETFs have collectively bought Bitcoin worth $28.22 billion in 2025, while Bitcoin miners’ net new issuance has amounted to $7.85 billion during the same period, according to Galaxy Research.

Bitcoin soared to a new record high 

Ethereum topped $3000 for the first time in 5 months...

With ETH outperforming BTC amid the Ethereum Community Conference, or EthCC, taking place...

EthCC, now in its eighth year, has tracked Ethereum’s trajectory from scrappy experiment to institutional backbone.

“That impact was unmistakable this year,” Falleur said.

“From Robinhood embracing decentralized finance infrastructure via Arbitrum to local governments like the City of Cannes exploring deeper integration with the crypto economy.”

Finally, as Bitcoin Magazine reports, $50 million worth of Bitcoin shorts were liquidated in the past hours and over $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin short positions are set to be liquidated at $120,000, according to data from Coinglass.

If Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory, a massive short squeeze could be triggered, forcing bearish traders to buy back in at higher prices and further accelerating the price action.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 08:45

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in June

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in June

A brief excerpt:
Closed sales in June were mostly for contracts signed in April and May, and mortgage rates, according to the Freddie Mac PMMS, averaged 6.73% in April and 6.82% in May (slightly higher than for closed sales in May).
...
Closed Existing Home SalesIn June, sales in these early reporting markets were up 4.5% YoY. Last month, in May, these same markets were down 4.7% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were more working days in June 2025 (20) as in June 2024 (19). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be lower than for the NSA data.
...
Many more local markets to come!
There is much more in the article.

Texas Greenlights Gold And Silver As Legal Tender

Zero Hedge -

Texas Greenlights Gold And Silver As Legal Tender

Via SchiffGold.com,

Austin, TX keeps rewriting the monetary rulebook. 

House Bill 1056, cleared by both chambers in late May, designates properly marked gold and silver “specie” as legal tender in the Lone Star State starting September 1, 2026.  A second phase—launching no later than May 1, 2027—authorizes an electronic payment rail fully backed by bullion stored in the Texas Bullion Depository. 

While Federal Reserve notes remain king for now, the measure lays fresh track for Texans who prefer metal over paper or pixel money.

Unlike commemorative coins that often carry eyebrow-raising premiums, qualifying pieces under H.B. 1056 need only display weight and purity and may carry a private refiner’s stamp—just no hints of sovereign issuance. 

The act specifies that no person or business can be forced to accept the shiny stuff, sidestepping the usual “cash-only” grumbles from merchants. 

Supporters see the voluntary approach as a constitutional workaround that respects contract freedom while widening transactional choice.

The bill also sketches out the digital future of hard money. 

The comptroller may license electronic platforms that let consumers send fractions of ounces with smartphone ease, all fully redeemable in physical metal

Fees must be “reasonable and necessary,” and pricing must reflect commercially available spot quotes at the moment of each transfer—critical guardrails in a world where a Monday rally pushed gold to $3,308 per ounce. 

Notably, vendors headquartered in Texas receive preference when bidding to build the system, signaling lawmakers’ desire to keep bullion-tech jobs on home soil.

Security provisions read like a hedge against both hackers and hostile regimes.  The comptroller must adopt rules to thwart fraud and block transactions tied to any “foreign adversary.”  That language mirrors federal export-control statutes and may placate skeptics who worry that a gold rail could become a sanctions-busting playground.  At the same time, the bill reiterates—twice—that nothing in the act restricts good old coins or Federal Reserve notes, an olive branch to critics fretting over legal-tender fragmentation.

With Washington debating digital-only central-bank currencies and inflation still nibbling at every paycheck, Texas is betting that a metal-backed alternative—both physical and electronic—will resonate with citizens eager for sturdier purchasing power.  Whether other states follow or stick with fiat and flashy crypto tokens remains to be seen, but the Lone Star signal is loud: sound money is making a comeback, one troy ounce at a time.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 08:05

Trump Admin Teases Resumption Of Anti-Houthi Airstrikes After Ship Attacks

Zero Hedge -

Trump Admin Teases Resumption Of Anti-Houthi Airstrikes After Ship Attacks

The Trump administration this week teased the possibility that it could order resumed airstrikes in Yemen following the two latest attacks by the Houthis on two commercial vessels in the Red Sea. The Houthis have repeatedly claimed the operations would cease if Israel ends its ongoing military campaign and blockade in Gaza.

“These attacks highlight the continued danger posed by Iran-backed Houthi rebels to maritime trade and regional security,” said State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce in a briefing earlier this week.

She emphasized that the US remains committed to defending commercial shipping and freedom of navigation. That's when she followed with what appeared to be a direct threat of more action.

"The United States has been clear: We will continue to take necessary action to protect freedom of navigation and commercial shipping from Houthi terrorist attacks," she said.

That didn't sway the Houthis given on Wednesday they confirmed responsibility for a Monday strike on the Eternity C, a Greek-owned cargo ship headed to Israel’s port of Eilat. Israel has also been conducting occasional major aerial operations over Yemen. 

Some 14 or 15 crew members have been taken hostage in the aftermath, with four killed. A Houthi military spokesman had described that the assault involved an unmanned boat along with six cruise and ballistic missiles. 

The vessel was totally destroyed and sank, with the Houthis proudly boasting of the operation in a detailed, slick montage and video production of the raid.

Prior to that, the attack on the Magic Seas vessel drew international criticism. "It is the first such attack against a commercial vessel in 2025, a serious escalation endangering maritime security in a vital waterway for the region and the world," the EU warned.

"These attacks directly threaten regional peace and stability, global commerce and freedom of navigation as a global public good. They can negatively impact the already dire humanitarian situation in Yemen."

Sinking of the Magic Seas

The EU also has a freedom of navigation military patrol in the region, after Washington had long urged for the bloc to step up and shoulder some of the defense responsibility to protect international shipping.

The Houthis have meanwhile announced fresh missile attacks on Israel:

The Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF) announced on 10 July that it targeted Tel Aviv with a ballistic missile, hours after releasing new footage of an attack on a commercial vessel headed to Israel’s southern port of Eilat. 

“The missile force of the Yemeni Armed Forces carried out a qualitative military operation, targeting Lod Airport in the occupied Jaffa area with a Zolfiqar ballistic missile,” the YAF said in a statement on Thursday morning. 

If the White House reverses course on its de facto ceasefire in the Red Sea, this would mark yet another major foreign policy reversal, coming off the decision to ramp up weapons shipments to Ukraine, after recently halting transfers.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 07:45

Dramatic Video: Anti-ICE Protester Fires Weapon At Federal Agents During Immigration Raid

Zero Hedge -

Dramatic Video: Anti-ICE Protester Fires Weapon At Federal Agents During Immigration Raid

Dramatic video footage from Ventura County, California, shows an anti-ICE protester discharging what appears to be a weapon at federal agents during an immigration enforcement operation in an agricultural zone. The nature of the weapon remains unconfirmed.

"A protester was seen apparently firing some kind of weapon at federal agents during the immigration raid at a farm near Camarillo on Thursday. It's unknown if anyone was injured in the chaos," local media outlet ABC7 wrote in a post on X.

ABC7 released additional details about the immigration raid and the resulting violent clash between protesters and federal agents:

The operation was taking place at a farm along Laguna Road near Camarillo. AIR7 was over the scene surrounded by fields as federal agents formed a line across the street.

At one point, a group of protesters were seen facing off with agents, some of whom threw smoke canisters towards the growing crowd.

. . .

During the chaotic moments, AIR7 captured one of the people gathered at the demonstration allegedly firing a gun towards federal agents. This happened after the agents fired smoke canisters at the crowd. There were no reports of any injuries.

The incident follows the recent arrest of ten individuals in Texas accused of orchestrating a "planned ambush" on an ICE detention facility during the Fourth of July weekend.

The back-to-back events suggest a continued escalation in coordinated anti-ICE activity nationwide. What began as low-intensity demonstrations is turning increasingly violent—especially with the recent use of firearms—and should be closely monitored.

This surge in violence coincides with inflammatory anti-ICE rhetoric from Democratic figures, including NYC mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani, who declared, "We have to stand up and fight back."

Last month, a top far-left city official in southeast Los Angeles County called for Mexican gangs to mobilize against ICE agents

Tom Homan, President Trump's border czar, stated on Fox News earlier this week: "The attack on ICE officers... is up nearly 700% now... We have Senators, we have Congresspeople that compare ICE to the Nazis... The rhetoric has to stop or it's a matter of time before one of the ICE officers goes down."

Yet Democrats have yet to denounce the violence and continue with dangerous anti-ICE rhetoric. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 07:35

Houthis Again Target Tel Aviv, As Israelis Plead For More US Raids On Yemen

Zero Hedge -

Houthis Again Target Tel Aviv, As Israelis Plead For More US Raids On Yemen

The Houthis have clearly been ramping up their attacks on Israeli interests and assets out of Yemen, and on Thursday another ballistic missile strike on Tel Aviv was attempted.

Israel's military said it intercepted a missile launched from Yemen, shortly after conducting airstrikes on Houthi targets. The Iran-aligned group later confirmed responsibility for the launch, calling it a "qualitative military operation" involving a ballistic missile.

Prior missile intercept over Tel Aviv in June, via AFP

As a result, multiple alert sirens were active across Israel during the dawn hours. All of this comes after the Houthis attacked and sank two commercial vessels bound for Israel, in complex operations which they boasted of and captured on film.

Israel is now reportedly formally asking the United States to renew its military strikes on the Iran-backed group, according to Kan public broadcaster..

Israel told the US that the attacks on shipping "can no longer remain solely an Israeli problem," and called for "more intense combined attacks against Houthi regime targets — not just [Israeli] air force fighter jet strikes, but also a renewal of American attacks and the formation of a coalition including additional countries."

"A broad coalition is needed to convey to the Houthi regime that it is in danger," an anonymous Israeli defense official told Kan.

At the moment, the Houthis are still actively targeting Tel Aviv international airport, along with any vessel in the Red Sea bound for Israel. Ben Gurion airport has been directly hit at least once during the conflict.

President Trump had in May declared a US ceasefire with the Houthis, to the chagrin of Israel, which stepped up its own aerial attacks on Yemen.

Trump, perhaps realizing the futility of the US bombing raids - amid Houthi resolve - essentially declared 'victory' and departed the war theatre. Many war analysts believe that the Houthis cannot ultimately be defeated short of a full, comprehensive ground operation.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 06:55

10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

Why Americans Can’t Buy the World’s Best Electric Car: You’ve probably heard of BYD. A middling player in the auto industry just a few years ago, the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD surpassed Tesla last year to become the world’s top-selling E.V. brand and is expected to pull even with the world’s biggest carmakers, Toyota and Volkswagen, by 2030. Yet most Americans have never even seen a BYD and probably won’t anytime soon. (New York Times)

Substack Is Having a Moment—Again. But Time Is Running Out: While star reporters continue to flock to Substack, subscription fatigue is only getting worse. (Wired) see also The Real Problem With Bluesky: The platform has more users than ever. So why does it feel so empty? (Slate)

This early-warning sign is telling the stock market that a recession is more likely: If you’re like many U.S. consumers, you’re more worried now about money. (Marketwatch)

Ready to really take on Schwab and Merrill Lynch, Vanguard quantifies ‘meaningful’ value that financial advisors deliver ‘beyond portfolio performance’ in code shift: “Our findings demonstrate that financial advice offers significant value beyond traditional portfolio construction and financial planning interventions,” the report states. “The peace of mind and time savings that clients experience should be integral measures when assessing the value of financial advice, because they can enhance clients’ quality of life,” the report concludes. (RIABiz)

Why We Think Only Others Get It Wrong: The introspection illusion is the mistaken belief that our internal reasoning is a reliable, transparent window into all the factors shaping our judgments. (The Critical Thinker)

The paradox of Trump’s tariff policy: The good news for American consumers and businesses is that potential price shocks and other disruptions from an all-out global trade war remain at bay — and Wall Street is taking this confusing landscape in stride. The bad news is it’s hardly the kind of policy landscape conducive to companies making long-term investments. (Axios)

9 Lessons from the World’s Oldest People (Blue Zone Wisdom): Average Americans are living 10-15 years less than people in other developed countries. That’s a shocking finding, but what’s driving it? (Peter H. Diamandis)

Welcome to the immigration industrial complex: Funding for ICE is about to skyrocket under Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill. (Washington Post) see also Trump loves ICE. Its Workforce Has Never Been So Miserable. A “mission impossible” deportation campaign has left many employees burned out and morally conflicted. (The Atlantic)

Did Shakespeare Write Hamlet While He Was Stoned? Sam Kelly Explores the Potential Influence of Cannabis on the Bard’s Prolific Literary Output. (Literary Hub)

They Call Him ‘Big Dumper.’ He’s Crushing Home Runs Like Babe Ruth. Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh remains on a historic tear entering a showdown in New York against the Yankees and Aaron Judge. (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Richard Bernstein, founder of RBA. The firm focuses on Macro trends, and manages (or advises on) $15.7B AUM. Previously, he was Chief Investment Strategist at Merrill Lynch from 1988-2009. Bernstein was named to Institutional Investor’s “All-America Research Team” 18X, and inducted into the Institutional Investor “Hall of Fame.”

These states are seeing the biggest housing market inventory shift

Source: Fast Company

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Sweden Cracks Down On OnlyFans - Will U.S. Follow Suit?

Zero Hedge -

Sweden Cracks Down On OnlyFans - Will U.S. Follow Suit?

Authored by Addison Graham via RealClearPolitics,

The X-rated social media platform OnlyFans is experiencing real growth, with revenue, content, and user numbers all on the rise. The site’s over 4 million “creators” sell content – including images, videos, and personalized chats – to more than 300 million subscribers, or “fans.” It’s primarily a sex site, and claims that the platform isn’t powered by porn are usually accompanied by winks and nods to the contrary.

OnlyFans keeps a 20% cut of what users pay, boasting $1.3 billion of revenue in 2023. It’s a lucrative approach to monetizing porn consumption, but the platform just hit a legal roadblock in a seemingly unlikely country.

Sweden, which in 1971 became the second country in the world to formally legalize all forms of pornography, has not been as soft on prostitution. In 1999, the country criminalized the purchase of sex, but not the sale, in efforts to protect vulnerable women from facing stiff legal consequences.

That policy will now apply to the virtual world. As of July 1, Swedes could face up to a year in prison for paying someone for personalized online sexual services, including sexting and video content. The new law also criminalizes promoting or profiting from others who perform sex acts for payment on demand, forcing OnlyFans to pull out of Sweden.

In a country known for libertines more than prudes, the law passed with broad, cross-party support. “The idea is that anyone who buys sexual acts performed remotely should be penalized in the same way as those who buy sexual acts involving physical contact,” said Gunnar Strommer, Sweden’s Justice Minister and a member of the Moderate party.

The U.S. has drawn a harder line on in-person prostitution than Sweden. Excluding certain counties in Nevada, it is illegal to both buy and sell sex in America. But OnlyFans – which exploded in the U.S. during the pandemic – remains legal in all 50 states, allowing Fenix International Limited, the London-based firm that owns OnlyFans, to profit from the sale of millions of sext messages and live video chats.

A growing number of bipartisan lawmakers are citing concerns about the role of social media in online sex trafficking. Some are calling out OnlyFans by name.

“Americans are being sexually exploited on OnlyFans,” said U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner, a Missouri Republican. “Congress and federal law enforcement must do more.”

In 2018, Wagner sponsored the FOSTA-SESTA Act, which Donald Trump signed into law. The bill gave federal and state prosecutors more authority to go after websites on which sex is sold, even holding platforms and Internet service providers responsible for user-generated ads related to sex work. But the FOSTA-SESTA Act mostly targets traffickers who use the internet as a recruitment or facilitating tool, whereas Sweden’s law prohibits the purchase of virtual prostitution (that is, paying for sex from sex workers who provide their services in the virtual space) as well as profiting from virtual prostitution.

With Trump back in office, Wagner and like-minded lawmakers appear eager to enact stricter regulations. If Sweden’s new law were replicated in the U.S., OnlyFans’ earnings would plummet. Roughly a quarter of the site’s content creators are American women, and nearly two-thirds of the platform’s revenue is generated in the U.S., according to the most recent data

Many sex workers say that criminalizing online prostitution is illogical because it will only result in women working in more dangerous in-person settings. A number of human rights organizations also argue that prostitution should be legalized because it grants sex workers greater access to legal protection and healthcare while also helping law enforcement better differentiate between the consenting and the coerced.

Some European governments agree, including Belgium, which last December granted sex workers formal labor rights, entitling them to sick leave, maternity pay, and pensions. Some are unionizing, and many more are opting to ditch the brothel scene and work from home.

As for trafficking, OnlyFans argues that they have invested in AI tools and ID verification systems to ensure that only of-age, consenting adults are participating on the site. It is true that OnlyFans has invested more into such measures than most other social media platforms or porn sites. But despite these filters, there are still reports of abuse and trafficking occurring on the site, which OnlyFans says is the result of only a few bad apples.

Many industry advocates say that lawmakers seeking to regulate the online sex trade are simply anti-porn religious zealots. But few U.S. lawmakers are signing on with Utah Senator Mike Lee, who is currently on his third attempt since 2022 to ban pornography nationwide. Rather, most speak of the issue in terms of the need to curb trafficking – mirroring the narrative of many Swedish lawmakers.

Clara Blanc

Sanna Backeskog, a Swedish politician and proponent of the recent law, insists she has no interest in being the porn police. She said, “This is about digitalized prostitution, where the boundaries between pornography and human trafficking are blurred.”

As lawmakers in the U.S. and Europe seek to clarify those blurred boundaries, some say Sweden is on the right track, that regulations will curb demand, and trafficking will go down. Others say the law will only make things worse as more prostitutes revert to doing their work in the dark.

The appetite for online sexual interactions is growing, and OnlyFans is reportedly on sale for $8 billion. The platform’s current owners hope that nations (especially the U.S.) won’t mimic Sweden’s recent law. After all, how else would OnlyFans continue to flourish in such a hot market?

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 06:30

Where Trump Wants To Send Deportees Under The Third-Country Deal

Zero Hedge -

Where Trump Wants To Send Deportees Under The Third-Country Deal

Eight men deported from the U.S. arrived in South Sudan last week after being held for weeks in Djibouti while their legal process was carried out in court. South Sudan is on the United State’s no-travel list due to “crime, kidnapping and armed conflict.” The eight had been convicted of violent crimes in the U.S. and had either completed or been near the end of finishing their sentences.

The group had initially been sent towards South Sudan in May. However, they were redirected to Djibouti when Judge Brian E. Murphy in Boston said that the men were not given “meaningful opportunity” to object that the deportation could put them in danger. According to AP, the group was flown out of the U.S. just hours after receiving notice with no chance to contact lawyers.

Last week, the supreme court overturned Judge Murphy's ruling.

The case is being compared to the UK’s highly-criticized and now abandoned Rwanda deal, as South Sudan is not the country of origin for all of the men but rather a ‘third-country’.

While one of the eight is from South Sudan, the others are from Cuba, Laos, Mexico, Myanmar and Vietnam. U.S. authorities state that most of the men’s home countries had refused to accept them.

According to reporting by The New York Times, the U.S. is intending to expand its network for third country deportations, having asked or planned to ask at least 58 countries to take in people who are not their citizens. So far, eight countries have reportedly accepted the offer: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Kosovo, Mexico, Panama, Rwanda and now South Sudan.

Nations earmarked by the Trump administration as possible additional places for deportations include Ukraine and Syria. However, as Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, the majority of the 51 nations cited by the NYT are in Africa (31 countries), including the Democratic Republic of Congo and Libya.

 Where Does Trump Want to Send Deportees? | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Many of these countries are subject to a new full or partial travel ban to the U.S. or are being considered for one.

Previous deportations of nationals to third countries have already taken place this year.

This includes the more than 130 Venezuelans sent to an El Salvador prison and an estimated 200 migrants, including 80 children, from countries including Afghanistan, Russia, China and India, sent to Costa Rica.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 05:45

EU Justice Commissioner Signals Brussels Will Continue To Blackmail Hungary In Run Up To National Elections

Zero Hedge -

EU Justice Commissioner Signals Brussels Will Continue To Blackmail Hungary In Run Up To National Elections

Via Remix news,

Using the “Poland method,” the European Union elite played a pivotal role in toppling the conservative Polish government by freezing billions in EU funds. Once Donald Tusk came to power, the money began flowing again.

Now, the same method is set to be used against Hungary in the run-up to national elections next year.

The European Commission published its 2025 Rule of Law Report on Tuesday, before which European Commissioner for Justice Michael McGrath told RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland that they are concerned about the situation in Hungary and are ready to use all means available to force Hungary to fall in line.

What does that mean in practice? Withholding billions in cohesion funds from Hungary, and possibly much more in the future.

“As far as Hungary is concerned, the Commission remains seriously concerned about the rule of law situation,” the EU justice commissioner said before the report was published, as cited by the Mandiner news portal. 

McGrath noted that various tools were at Brussels’ disposal to take action, from freezing EU funds to referring the case to the European Court of Justice. The rule of law, he said, “means justice instead of arbitrariness, and trust instead of fear.” He said he refused to allow it to be deemed some form of “abstract value.”

The EC’s report targets the Hungarian judiciary, which they say is compromised by political influence, and Hungary’s case allocation and appointment system, which they deem insufficiently transparent. They considered that progress had been made in terms of corruption, but they found the anti-corruption institutions, including the Integrity Authority, insufficiently effective. 

The EU also claims that the allocation of public funds and EU funds is not transparent.

The document makes note of the fact that Transparency International’s 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) ranks Hungary as the “most corrupt country” in the EU.

TI has long been funded in part by George Soros’ Open Society Foundation. As Remix News has reported in the past, the organization is highly partisan, and often ranks Hungary on par with corruption as war-torn African countries.

Regarding domestic media, it is claimed that “state advertising distorts the market” and that opposition media is marginalized. No mention of countries like Germany, where media outlets are raided by police, including the publisher and journalists, and then completely erased from the internet, only for courts to later say the entire action was illegal.

Moreover, the room for civil society organizations to maneuver has narrowed, it reads, and oversight of the executive branch is lacking.

In addition to the report on 2024, the document also reports on the consultation with civil society organizations in 2025. Based on the reports of the NGOs, they write about the shortcomings of the institutional system for preventing corruption and the weakening of independent institutions.

Given its findings and what it believes to be a worsening situation in Hungary, the EU will continue to withhold some €6.3 billion in cohesion funds.

“Stakeholders note that the distribution of public funding continues to be uneven, untransparent, privileging government-aligned organizations against CSOs critical of government policies, which are not able to secure public funding in Hungary. Overall, no progress has been made on the recommendation and the situation has instead further deteriorated.”

The Commission’s report was prepared based on the report of a five-member delegation, the LIBE committee, who had visited Hungary. Mandiner has called out the credibility of the report, partly due to those in the delegation. The Green Party’s Tineke Strik, whom the Center for Fundamental Rights called “a real hard-line globalist,” is one member of the delegation, alongside left-wing and liberal politicians, including Michał Wawrykiewicz from the European People’s Party, who gave a speech at a Tisza Party event and is a big supporter of opposition leader Péter Magyar.

The LIBE committee’s visit has been criticized, as the delegation met primarily with opposition media outlets and organizations and also because no video or audio recording was allowed during a meeting with Hungary’s Office for the Protection of Sovereignty. The action prevented  “Hungarian and European citizens from getting a credible and accurate picture of the conceptual procedure being conducted by Brussels against Hungary,” according to the Hungary’s Office for the Protection of Sovereignty.

In response to the report, Hungary’s Nézőpont Institute has come out with its own report, calling on Brussels to abide by the rule of law as well. It highlighted four main areas of particular concern when it comes to EU institutions: unchecked corruption, persistent conflicts of interest, opaque funding practices regarding NGOs, and the entrenched double standards applied by various EU bodies. 

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 05:00

White House Acts Surprised At Ukraine Weapons Pause

Zero Hedge -

White House Acts Surprised At Ukraine Weapons Pause

Two US officials who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity have confirmed the resumption of arms and ammo deliveries to Ukraine's military which include 155 mm artillery shells and GMLRS precision-guided rockets.

Last week's ordered pause affected a specific shipment and was reportedly initiated by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to review US weapons inventory levels amid fears of dwindling American stockpiles.

Via Lockheed Martin

The Ukrainians too appear to have confirmed receipt of the paused shipments, and have said they are 'impressed' with Trump's decision-making.

But interestingly, the White House has acted surprised that the pause was ever given:

During a meeting of his Cabinet on Tuesday, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sitting next to him, Trump said he didn't know who signed off on the weapons pause.

"I don't know. Why don't you tell me?" Trump told a reporter who asked who ordered the pause.

Trump also repeated he was "very unhappy" with Putin and said he was looking into sanctions on Russia as a consequence.

And on Wednesday the president was questioned by a reporter as follows:

"Yesterday, you said that you were not sure who ordered the munitions halted to Ukraine. Have you since been able to figure that out?" a reporter asked the president.

"Well, I haven't thought about it, because we're looking at Ukraine right now and munitions, but I have, no I have not gone into it," he said.

The reporter followed up by asking, "What does it say that such a big decision could be made inside your government without you knowing?"

"I would know if a decision was made, I will know," Trump stressed. "I'll be the first to know. In fact, most likely I'd give the order, but I haven't done that yet."

Such obfuscation could be the result of rising anger among Trump's base concerning the policy U-turn. Trump voters have wondered how keeping up the flow of massive monetary and defense aid to Ukraine is 'America first'.

This is especially as Trump had earlier swiped at Zelensky over the aid, calling him the "world's greatest salesman". But more recently Trump has expressed frustration at lack of peace negotiations between Moscow and Kiev getting off the ground.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 04:15

Erdogan Crackdown Continues With 500 Opposition Figures Arrested In 'Octopus' Probe

Zero Hedge -

Erdogan Crackdown Continues With 500 Opposition Figures Arrested In 'Octopus' Probe

Via The Cradle

Turkish authorities have detained more than 500 members and officials of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) since October 2024 in an intensifying crackdown that has exclusively targeted municipalities held by the secularist party, according to a Reuters review of legal filings and state disclosures published on Thursday.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has defended the campaign as an effort to dismantle a corrupt “octopus” network with arms stretching “to other parts of Turkiye and abroad.”

Getty Images

His office has not responded to requests for comment on accusations of political interference or selective prosecution.

The probe initially focused on Istanbul but has since spread to CHP-run cities including Izmir, Adana, Antalya, and Adiyaman – territories seized from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in last year’s municipal elections. 

More than 220 individuals have been imprisoned or placed under house arrest, with 202 detained in the past week alone.

Among those jailed is Ekrem Imamoglu, mayor of Istanbul and Erdogan’s leading political rival, who was arrested in March on corruption charges he denies. 

A 121-page police transcript reviewed by Reuters alleges that Imamoglu’s phone repeatedly connected to the same cell tower as individuals accused of bribery, to which he responded that his home was located nearby. Prosecutors have yet to issue indictments.

Lawyers and party officials say the arrests lack a legal foundation. Mehmet Pehlivan, Imamoglu’s lawyer, who was also jailed, said the probe attempts “for the first time to criminalize the right to practice law.”

Former AKP minister Ertugrul Gunay described the campaign as a “tool for political attrition,” warning it reflects panic within Erdogan’s camp over future elections. CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel called it “a coup against Ataturk’s party,” prompting a separate investigation against him for allegedly insulting the president.

Three CHP mayors – Zeydan Karalar of Adana, Muhittin Bocek of Antalya, and Abdurrahman Tutdere of Adiyaman – were arrested on 5 July in what the party described as a “political operation.” Their arrests followed the detention of over 120 individuals in Izmir.

Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas responded on X, saying, “In a system where the law is bent and twisted according to politics … no one should expect us to trust the rule of law or believe in justice.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 03:30

Russia Unveils New Tactic In Latest Drone Swarms On Ukraine

Zero Hedge -

Russia Unveils New Tactic In Latest Drone Swarms On Ukraine

It has now become the norm for hundreds of drones to be exchanged each night across borders between Russia and Ukraine. In the overnight and into Thursday morning hours, Russia once again sent some 400 drones into Ukraine. The attack also included close to 20 ballistic and cruise missiles.

CNN and others, who have correspondents on the ground, have witnessed a 'new tactic' in the war. Russia sent drones on the Ukrainian capital "flying from all directions" - in yet another effective effort at confusing and breaking past anti-air defenses.

"Russia has been intensifying its aerial attacks against Ukraine in recent weeks, but the assault on Thursday appeared to mark a change in approach from Moscow," CNN notes, before adding:

They were flying at different altitudes, and attacking from all directions — with some of the drones initially bypassing the capital before abruptly changing direction and speeding back towards the city.

Illustration of Shahed drones, Alamy Stock Photo

Still, Ukraine's military says it was able to shootdown or disable 382 of the 415 aerial weapons Russia launched overnight.

Local authorities said a 22-year-old female police officer was killed in these latest Russian attacks, along with one other person, and over a dozen more people were wounded.

"This is an obvious build-up of terror by Russia," President Zelensky said on Thursday, while issuing another plea for the United States and the Western allies to provide more air defense systems and missiles.

Clearly, the two warring sides are further away from direct peace negotiations than ever before. The US appears to have somewhat stepped back, content to let the war drag on, after President Trump has expressed deep frustration.

But Washington is still apparently working on the bilateral relationship with Moscow, as top diplomats from both sides held a "frank exchange" during talks in Malaysia on Thursday on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) foreign ministers’ summit.

Reports say US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has issued a "new idea" on resolving the war to his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov.

"It’s not a new approach. It’s a new idea or a new concept that I’ll take back to the president to discuss," Rubio said. He underscored was not something that "automatically leads to peace, but it could potentially open the door to a path."

But if it's anything less than Kiev making territorial concessions, the Kremlin is unlikely to be interested, also as it keeps making slow but steady gains in the east.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 02:45

German Immigration Officer Jailed For Accepting Cash Bribes From Migrants In Exchange For Citizenship Documents

Zero Hedge -

German Immigration Officer Jailed For Accepting Cash Bribes From Migrants In Exchange For Citizenship Documents

By Thomas Brooke of Remix News

A German court has sentenced an immigration officer to prison for accepting bribes in exchange for issuing fraudulent residence and citizenship documents.

As reported by Bild, the Lüneburg Regional Court ruled on Tuesday that the officer from the district of Lüchow-Dannenberg in Lower Saxony illegally issued permanent residence permits, settlement papers, and naturalizations to foreigners in at least 16 cases between January 2022 and July 2023, in return for cash payments.

Among those who obtained papers were individuals from Turkey, Georgia, Albania, and several Arab countries. Many had presented forged residence documents from other EU states, such as Greece, when applying for legal status in Germany. In some cases, requirements such as language proficiency certificates were waived.

The court found that the official became known for his ability to process cases “without complications,” a reputation that spread across the country, according to a district councilor. He was consequently jailed for six and a half years.

The scheme involved a co-defendant, 32-year-old Kastriot G., who knew the official from a local football club. He acted as an intermediary, arranging “customer orders” for the fraudulent documents. Kastriot G. was sentenced to nine years in prison, with his term including a previous conviction for kidnapping for ransom.

The court stated that both men had received around €154,000 from their dealings, which they are now required to repay in full. Both defendants partially admitted the charges, though they did not fully confess.

“They were only interested in the money; they wanted to split the proceeds equally,” said presiding judge Christoph Paglotke, according to the German press agency dpa.

The verdict is not yet final and can still be appealed.

Illegal immigration means big money for some, and fraudulent activity has been known to occur in several European member states.

In February, Spanish police uncovered a criminal network arranging sham marriages between Spanish women and foreign men seeking residency. Three people, including a lawyer, were arrested for their involvement in the scheme, which charged around €10,000 per client.

Continue reading on Remix news

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 02:00

6 Factors That Describe China's Current State

Zero Hedge -

6 Factors That Describe China's Current State

Authored by Alexander Liao via The Epoch Times,

As we reach the midpoint of 2025, it is evident that this year has been characterized by turbulence, uncertainty, and deepening despair for many in communist China.

Six phenomena best capture the country’s current state: decline, fierce competition, political struggles, the “run” movement, random acts of violence, and the “lying flat” movement.

They reveal the erosion of trust and a growing sense of disillusionment and unrest among the populace.

Decline

For many in China, 2025 is the most challenging year in nearly three decades, with numerous sectors of society experiencing a significant downturn. The real estate market is the most notable example.

By the end of May, average transaction floor prices for residential land had fallen by nearly 50 percent in second-tier cities and almost 40 percent in third-tier cities. These prices are calculated by dividing the total land cost by the total floor area that can legally be built, providing a measure of the land acquisition cost for developers.

Local governments, heavily dependent on land sales for revenue, saw this vital stream nearly vanish—crippling their finances.

The economic downturn is evident in the decline of consumer spending. Signs of shrinking domestic demand include price wars in the electric vehicle sector, the widespread closure of small businesses, and decreasing sales of luxury goods such as cosmetics, high-end watches, and designer handbags. Additionally, many foreign companies are either downsizing their operations or leaving the country altogether.

Salary cuts have affected employees across various sectors, including banks, securities companies, civil services, and both state-owned and private enterprises. Moreover, the unemployment rate among recent college graduates is rising, leading many individuals to anticipate joblessness after graduation.

Yet the most significant decline is not related to the economy but to the public’s confidence in the regime. Among ordinary citizens and government officials, many have lost hope in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). No amount of optimistic rhetoric or economic stimulus can reverse this situation. The erosion of trust has triggered capital flight and stock market exits, posing perhaps the greatest legitimacy crisis the CCP has ever faced.

Fierce Competition

Excessive competition within the same industry has been a longstanding issue under communist rule, leading to infighting and internal exhaustion.

This year has seen a notable increase in the closures of various businesses, including restaurants, hair salons, bubble tea shops, beauty parlors, and car dealerships. While the economic downturn is a significant factor, internal competition has also played a vital role. There are too many businesses vying for a limited demand, which has prompted them to undercut each other in increasingly unsustainable ways. As a result, many are struggling, ultimately leading to shutdowns, and the deteriorating economy has only worsened this situation.

Political Struggles and Infighting

Infighting among top CCP officials is one of the most sensitive and consequential developments this year, particularly evident in the ongoing military purge.

What began in late 2023 as a sweeping crackdown on the Rocket Force—initially targeting high-ranking officials seen as disloyal to Chinese leader Xi Jinping—took a dramatic turn in the second half of 2024. In a striking reversal, the latest purges have targeted Xi’s allies, suggesting a weakening of his grip on power.

According to credible insiders speaking to overseas Chinese dissidents, Xi’s role has now become largely ceremonial. There are growing indications that top CCP officials have reached a consensus: Xi will soon be officially removed from power.

This unexpected power shift has become the defining feature of China’s political landscape in 2025.

‘Run’ Movement

This situation describes the increasing trend of Chinese citizens attempting to leave the country by any means available.

Following the CCP’s draconian three-year COVID-19 lockdowns, a growing number of people sought to emigrate to the United States, with some even illegally crossing its southern border on foot. But with President Donald Trump’s return to the White House, that pathway is now largely closed.

In recent years, some Chinese also attempted to settle in Canada by overstaying tourist visas and applying for political asylum. However, Canada has also tightened its visa policies.

Now, Thailand and Malaysia have emerged as new destinations for middle-income Chinese hoping to join the “run” movement.

For wealthier individuals, Japan has become an increasingly attractive destination compared to many Western countries, thanks to its relatively accessible business manager visa.

This visa has no requirements for Japanese language proficiency, academic qualifications, or age limits. Instead, applicants must invest a minimum of 5 million yen (approximately $35,000) in a Japanese company, register the business, and secure a physical office space.

Additionally, the business must employ at least one full-time staff member who is either a Japanese national, a permanent resident, the spouse or child of a Japanese national or permanent resident, or a foreign national with long-term resident status. Applicants can bring their family members if their business plan is approved.

Regardless of their socioeconomic status, many Chinese are leaving the country. This trend underscores the grim reality of oppressive governance, where mounting pressures compel people to take drastic measures.

Random Acts of Violence

Another disturbing phenomenon is the rise in random assaults over the past two years.

Many Chinese, either trapped by overwhelming hardship or victimized by injustice, have no outlet for their grievances. Tragically, violence often ensues when they lash out in an attempt to express their pain. The following events could be linked to this.

On Jan. 27, in Bozhou, Anhui Province, a sedan plowed into a crowd, injuring multiple people.

Then, on March 23, a man carried out a knife attack outside a supermarket in Shaoxing, Zhejiang Province, randomly targeting passersby. Several people were reportedly injured. A netizen posted videos of the incident on social media that may be disturbing to some viewers (link).

Just days later, on March 26, in Anyang, Henan Province, a taxi drove erratically down the road, hitting pedestrians and vehicles. Some sources claimed that pedestrians and food couriers were killed. A netizen posted a video on social media that may be disturbing to some viewers (link).

Authorities quickly censored information regarding these incidents.

‘Lying Flat’

This movement, initiated by young people in China in recent years, is a response to societal burnout, where individuals withdraw from the competitive frenzy and adopt a slower, minimalist lifestyle.

A new term has emerged to describe individuals who take the concept of “lying flat” to the extreme: the “Five Nos” youth. These individuals consciously choose not to buy a house or a car, avoid making unnecessary purchases, and forgo marriage and children. Their focus is on minimizing expenses as much as possible.

As the economy continues to deteriorate, this passive withdrawal from societal expectations has become increasingly widespread. In essence, Chinese society seems to have lost its vitality.

No Hope for Recovery Under CCP Rule

These miseries are the outcome of decades of communist rule coupled with a continuously weakening economy.

The CCP had hoped to stimulate the economy by relying on an internal circulation model, encouraging people to spend their remaining savings. However, this strategy has failed because China lacks a reliable social security or welfare system. With people earning less, they are too afraid to spend. Consequently, consumption has stalled, and the economy has slipped into deeper stagnation.

As a result, all the gains from years of reform and opening up have been exhausted as of today.

Furthermore, the CCP’s governance model is detrimental to society, especially in times of crisis. Misguided attempts to cling to power—such as implementing the draconian zero-COVID policy during the pandemic, adopting wolf-warrior diplomacy, and allowing the unchecked growth of the real estate bubble—have seriously harmed Chinese society.

Worse still, the Party has eroded China’s moral compass. Dishonesty, betrayal, and opportunism have become increasingly commonplace, resulting in a pervasive atmosphere of mutual distrust in everyday life. In 2025, the consequences of this decades-long degradation have reached a breaking point.

If the CCP continues its rule, ordinary citizens will face increasingly difficult years ahead.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 23:25

US Orders "Immediate Shutdown" Of Mexican Cattle Trade After Cross-Border Parasitic Fly Threat

Zero Hedge -

US Orders "Immediate Shutdown" Of Mexican Cattle Trade After Cross-Border Parasitic Fly Threat

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has ordered the immediate suspension of all live cattle, bison, and horse imports from Mexico via the southern border. The move comes in response to a newly confirmed case of New World Screwworm in Mexico—a highly destructive parasite that poses a massive threat to U.S. livestock and the broader food supply chain.

"I have ordered an immediate shutdown of live cattle, bison, and horse trade through the southern U.S.–Mexico border," Rollins wrote on X, adding, "This decisive action comes after Mexico confirmed another case of New World Screwworm in Veracruz. As promised, @USDA remains vigilant to ensure the protection of America's livestock and food supply." 

She quoted a U.S. Department of Agriculture press release that announced the trade suspension, which signals heightened biosecurity concerns within the USDA and reflects a zero-tolerance posture toward potential cross-border parasitic threats.

Related: 

With the U.S. cattle herd at its smallest since the 1950s, meatpackers have increasingly sourced from countries like Mexico. Meanwhile, 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods could further tighten U.S. beef supplies. The latest USDA data shows retail ground beef prices have surged above $6 per pound—a new record high.

However, there is good news: the globalist meatpacking giant JBS CEO revealed weeks ago that the U.S. cattle industry is in the beginning stages of rebuilding. Read more here.

Also, Goldman is looking for a bottom in the beef cycle...

Read the note. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 23:00

OPEC Says Global Oil Consumption Will Hit 123 Million BPD By 2050

Zero Hedge -

OPEC Says Global Oil Consumption Will Hit 123 Million BPD By 2050

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

  • OPEC projects oil demand rising 19% to 123 million bpd by 2050, led by India and Africa.

  • The forecast contrasts sharply with IEA projections of demand peaking by 2030.

  • U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement seen by OPEC as supporting continued hydrocarbon demand.

“There is no peak oil demand on the horizon,” OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais wrote in the foreword of OPEC’s latest World Oil Outlook (WOO), which sees global oil demand growing by about 19% from now until 2050 to reach 123 million barrels per day (bpd).

In view of slowing Chinese demand growth, OPEC revised down its oil demand growth forecasts for all years between 2025 and 2029.

However, global economic development with growing demand for oil and an increasing global population and middle class are set to underpin demand growth in the coming decades.

OPEC reiterated its view that there is no peak oil demand in sight and the world will see continued rising consumption for decades.

India will lead global oil demand growth through 2050, boosting consumption by 8.2 million bpd between 2025 and 2020.

The Middle East and Africa will also be key demand growth drivers, according to OPEC’s view.

Moreover, oil demand will also be supported by U.S. President Donald Trump’s exit from the Paris Agreement.

“The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will impact climate change negotiations and would most likely result in higher demand for hydrocarbons in general, and oil and gas in particular,” OPEC said in the World Oil Outlook as cited by Bloomberg.

“Continued, and even marginally higher, oil demand in the US is to be expected over the medium-term period.”

OPEC’s view that there is no peak oil demand on the horizon contrasts with forecasts from the industry and the International Energy Agency (IEA). Many of the largest oil firms see demand plateauing at some point next decade, while the IEA has just doubled down on its narrative that a peak in global oil demand is still on the horizon.

Global oil demand is forecast to rise by 2.5 million bpd from 2024 to 2030, reaching a plateau around 105.5 million bpd by the end of the decade, per the IEA’s annual Oil 2025 report for the medium term. 

Annual global growth will slow from about 700,000 bpd in 2025 and 2026 “to just a trickle over the next several years, with a small decline expected in 2030, based on today’s policy settings and market trends,” the IEA said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 22:35

Measles Cases In US Climb To Highest Number In 33 Years: CDC

Zero Hedge -

Measles Cases In US Climb To Highest Number In 33 Years: CDC

Confirmed measles cases in the United States have hit the highest number since 1992, according to new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

In the United States, so far in 2025, 1,288 cases have been recorded as of July 8, the CDC said in an update on Wednesday.

That’s the highest number in one year since 1992, when 2,126 cases were logged.

Zachary Stieber reports that spokespersons for the CDC and its parent agency, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), said in emails to The Epoch Times that HHS “continues to support community efforts in dealing with the measles outbreaks” while the CDC “continues to provide technical assistance, laboratory support, and vaccines as requested.”

Officials say they’ve sent nearly 12,000 mumps, measles, rubella (MMR) vaccine doses to states since cases began appearing in January.

Measles was marked as eliminated from the United States in 2000. That designation means measles was not spreading within the country and that new cases only cropped up when individuals contracted measles in other countries and returned to the United States.

The United States is likely on the way to losing the elimination status, Dr. Monica Gandhi, professor of medicine at the University of California–San Francisco, wrote on social media platform X.

The previous annual peak of case numbers since the elimination was in 2019, when 1,274 cases were confirmed.

That number was primarily driven by an outbreak that occurred in New York.

Cases this year have been recorded in 38 states. More than half of the cases happened in Texas, where an outbreak broke out and spread among Mennonite communities, according to health officials. The source of the outbreak has not been identified.

Of the Texas patients, 5 percent had received at least one dose of the MMR vaccine. Nationwide, 8 percent of patients have a confirmed vaccination history.

The remaining patients are either unvaccinated or have unknown vaccination status.

Three patients have died in the United States in 2025. None of them had received a vaccine.

Measles has also been spreading in other countries.

Canada, which has a much smaller population, said this week that nearly 3,400 measles cases have been confirmed there this year.

“The risk of measles infection is low for the overall U.S. population, with a case rate of less than 0.4 per 100,000 people—lower than peer developed countries including Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Spain, and Italy,” the CDC and HHS spokespersons said.

Measles risk is higher in U.S. communities with low vaccination rates in areas with active measles outbreaks or with close social and/or geographic linkages to areas with active measles outbreaks. CDC continues to recommend MMR vaccines as the best way to protect against measles. The decision to vaccinate is a personal one. People should consult with their healthcare provider to understand their options to get inoculated and should be informed about the potential risks and benefits associated with vaccines.”

The Partnership to Fight Infectious Disease, a nonprofit whose advisory board members include pharmaceutical company officials, said in a statement that the measles case count “represents an alarming low in today’s fight against vaccine-preventable disease” and called on health leaders and lawmakers “to encourage people to protect themselves and others through vaccination.”

The CDC on its website recommends two doses of the measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine for all children beginning at 12 months of age. The vaccine is required for school attendance in every state.

Coverage with many childhood vaccines has decreased in recent years. For the MMR vaccine, coverage among kindergartners dropped from 95.2 percent during the school year that started in 2019 to 92.7 percent during the school year that began in 2023. Coverage is even lower in the counties with the most cases in Texas.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the head of HHS, has said that people should get a measles vaccine. He has also noted the vaccine has side effects and said that its protection wanes “very quickly.” Some studies have found a waning of MMR vaccine protection or antibodies among some recipients, including a 2007 paper from the United States and a 2023 paper.

The CDC estimates that one dose of the vaccine is 94 percent effective against measles and that two doses bring the effectiveness to 97 percent. The estimates are drawn from a 2013 paper analyzing studies that were performed more than a decade ago, a CDC spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email.

The immunity provided by the vaccine is “long-term and probably lifelong in most persons,” the agency states on its website. “Some studies indicate that waning immunity may occur after successful vaccination, but this appears to occur rarely and to play only a minor role in measles transmission and outbreaks.”

It also says that approximately 2 to 7 percent of children who receive one dose of the MMR vaccine, and less than 1 percent of kids who receive two doses, do not develop antibodies against measles.

“The secretary has been very clear, it’s his priority to stop the measles outbreak,” Susan Monarez, President Donald Trump’s nominee to head the CDC, told senators during her recent confirmation hearing. “He has been very clear that the MMR vaccine is a critical component to stopping this outbreak.”

A Senate panel on Wednesday advanced Monarez’s nomination. The full Senate has yet to take up the matter.

People exposed to measles can contract the illness, particularly unvaccinated individuals, according to the CDC. Symptoms typically start appearing seven to 14 days after infection, and include a high fever, coughing, and red eyes.

There are no medicines approved by federal regulators specifically for measles. Doctors are encouraged to provide supportive care and focus on relieving symptoms.

Some doctors administer vitamin A, as recommended by the World Health Organization. Kennedy has promoted other treatments such as steroids and cod liver oil.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 22:10

China's Big Housing Stimulus Rescue Is Wishful Thinking

Zero Hedge -

China's Big Housing Stimulus Rescue Is Wishful Thinking

By George Lei, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

Expectations of policy actions to bolster the housing sector have helped real estate stocks close the gap with the broader CSI 300 benchmark over the past few sessions. That has some market participants referencing 2015 and Beijing’s housing-rescue efforts that pulled the world’s second-largest economy out of a deflationary trap. But economic and market circumstances are vastly different now, leaving policymakers neither willing nor able to repeat what they achieved a decade ago.

Rumors are circulating that a new round of shantytown renovation — a catchphrase used a decade ago as part of the rescue package — could be in the works, according to Clocktower Group LP, an asset management and advisory firm based in Santa Monica, California. Back then, Beijing flexed its financial muscles to help a slumping real estate market, with a series of policies putting an end to falling producer prices.

The stimulus, however, resulted in double-digit home price growth in the following years, and the aftermath of that property bubble has haunted China up to this day. With the country’s population poised to keep declining in the years to come, homeowners have grown more bearish on the price outlook. The threshold for Beijing to turn things around is much higher now than a decade ago.

The expectation of renewed shantytown renovation “is likely to prove wishful thinking,” Clocktower said in a client email on Thursday. Ten years ago, PBOC’s pledged supplementary lending program enabled local authorities to redevelop land and then quickly sell to homebuilders.

The resulting land-sale revenue allowed local governments to service their PSL loans and sustain the cycle. With nationwide land-sale revenues falling last month to a decade low, market conditions are “fundamentally different” and new PSL loans could increase risks of new, hidden local debt, Clocktower cautioned.

China’s housing slump -  which has shown no signs of ending -  could emerge as a major growth drag in the rest of 2025. Investors, meanwhile, have also shifted their focus “to the domestic economy and policy” amid fading tariff concerns, Macquarie said in a research report after a series of meetings in the past few weeks.

Policymakers could act to stabilize the property sector after disappointing data, though any aid will be measured and taylored to containing risks only, according to Macquarie analysts Larry Hu and Yuxiao Zhang. Since 1H growth is set to exceed 5%, “stimulus will stay modest until exports fall, as Beijing will do just enough to hit the 5% GDP target,” the Australian bank argued.

Back in 2015, the housing boom engineered by Beijing helped absorb overcapacity in steel and cement. This time, however, it is much harder to cut capacity — and end deflation — as oversupply is more concentrated in consumer sectors such as auto, solar panels and batteries, Macquarie noted. Another housing bubble will only do more harm than good.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 21:55

Trump To Impose 35% Canadian Tariff, But USMCA Goods To Stay Exempt

Zero Hedge -

Trump To Impose 35% Canadian Tariff, But USMCA Goods To Stay Exempt

Trump issued another letter late on Thursday, saying he will levy a 35% tariff on some goods coming into the US from Canada, in a blow to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s bid to avoid punishing levies on goods sold to the US. The tariff level would take effect from August 1.

“Fentanyl is hardly the only challenge we have with Canada, which has many Tariff, Non-Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers, which cause unsustainable Trade Deficits against the United States,” Trump said in a letter to Carney posted Thursday. "Tariffs to our Dairy Farmers - up to 400% - and that is even assuming our Dairy Farmers even have access to sell their products to the people of Canada."

Trump did allow that he would “consider an adjustment to this letter” if Canada worked with him to stop the flow of fentanyl. But he criticized Canadian authorities for their existing tariffs on US dairy products and said the government had “financially retaliated against the United States.”

The announced rate will be an increase from the current 25% tariff on Canadian imports not covered by the trade deal negotiated between the US, Canada and Mexico, which do not and will not face additional tariffs. That exclusion would remain unchanged, Bloomberg reported citing an unnamed government official. Trump is also leaving in place a lower 10% tariff on energy related imports as well as his increased levies on key goods including metals, the official said.

The situation remains fluid and the legal order has not yet been drafted, they cautioned.

In order to not shake up the market, which has once again emerged as the only true barometer of Trump's actions, that formula would be a far more modest change to the trading relationship than an across-the-board 35% rate, and would preserve exceptions for closely integrated sectors like the auto industry.

While most Canadian exports were shielded from Trump’s tariffs thanks to the trade agreement, known as USMCA, the president had imposed a 25% tariff on many goods citing the threat of fentanyl. Metals, including steel and aluminum, were already subject to a 50% tariff.

Still, Bloomberg notes that the letter suggests Trump is intent on ratcheting up rather than scaling back his trade war with the US’s northern neighbor (which he has mused publicly should consider becoming the 51st state) despite furious efforts by Canadian officials to broker a deal.

Trump’s letter came after he told NBC News Thursday he is eyeing blanket tariffs of 15% to 20% on most trading partners, adding that the exact levels are being worked out now. The current blanket tariff rate is 10%.

Taken together, the moves signal no retreat from his flagship economic policy, with Trump noting to NBC the recent rise in US equity markets even as Trump plans higher tariff rates on major trading partners that would start within weeks. 

US stock futures briefly slumped, before recovering some losses when it became clear that USMCA goods would remain exempt. Almost as if Trump wants to keep imposing tariffs while watching the stock market hit record highs day after day: since the two are mutually exclusive, either Trump has to TACO on tariffs, or watch as markets tumble once more a la Liberation day. The greenback climbed against major peers in Asian trading. The Canadian dollar led losses among Group-of-10 currencies, followed by risk sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars in fear a further disruption to trade may impact global growth.

Trump’s Canada announcement came after officials in Ottawa already moved this week to denounce US plans to impose a 50% import tariff on copper.



“We are waiting for the details of this decision by the White House and by the president, but we’ll fight against it, period,” Canada Industry Minister Melanie Joly said earlier Thursday.

The talks between the US and Canada had already shown signs of stress. Last month, Trump cut off negotiations temporarily after Canada moved to impose a digital services tax, only for the Canadian government to drop the initiative just hours later.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 21:37

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