Individual Economists

Texas Woman Arrested After Facebook Post Over Unsafe Brown Drinking Water: Report

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Texas Woman Arrested After Facebook Post Over Unsafe Brown Drinking Water: Report

A woman in Trinidad, Texas, was arrested after she posted on Facebook raising concerns about the safety of the city's discolored drinking water, according to Fox 4.

Jennifer Combs posted the message on April 6 to her citizen-watchdog group page, Southern Belle Watch, urging residents who had been sickened by the city's tap water to come forward.

"We have received reports that some citizens have been hospitalized due to bacteria in the water. This is a serious public health concern that deserves immediate attention," she wrote. "If your water looks discolored, contains sediment, has a strong odor, or you have experienced related health issues, please send us a message. We are gathering information and reporting findings to the state."

In what could be seen as a brazen move against free speech, Jennifer Combs was arrested on May 8.

Trinidad Police Chief Charles Gregory scrambled to defend the arrest, claiming the case was "cut and dry" and saying her claims about hospitalizations "are simply false and have only caused unnecessary fear and confusion in our community."

Trinidad law enforcement claimed Combs had written "false information that creates fear, panic, or unnecessary emergency response within a community."

However, on April 21, a few weeks after Combs' post, the city itself issued a notice urging residents to boil their water to "avoid harmful bacteria," according to the New York Post.

"It was probably one of the most humiliating things I've ever gone through in my entire life. It was very, very bad," Combs told Fox 4 of the arrest.

Combs has filed a federal lawsuit against the city, including Chief Gregory and another member of the local police force.

CJ Grisham, a lawyer who is representing Combs in her case against the cops, branded the arrest an "abuse of power," the Post reported.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 22:10

Taiwan Defense Chief Contradicts Trump On Enormous Arms Package Moving Forward

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Taiwan Defense Chief Contradicts Trump On Enormous Arms Package Moving Forward

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Taiwanese Defense Minister Wellington Koo Li-hsiung said on Monday that he's "cautiously optimistic" that the US will advance a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan after the US Navy secretary said it was on hold due to the war with Iran.

Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao told Congress last week that the US was "doing a pause" on the massive weapons package to "make sure we have the munitions we need for Epic Fury," the code name for the US-Israeli war against Iran.

Taiwanese Defense Minister Wellington Koo Li-hsiung, via Taiwan Defense Ministry

Cao's comments appeared to contradict President Trump, who suggested the arms package could be used as a "negotiating chip" with China.

During his recent visit to Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping issued a stern warning regarding Taiwan, telling the US president that if the issue isn’t handled properly, it could lead to "clashes and conflicts" between the two superpowers.

In December, the Trump administration advanced an $11 billion weapons package for Taiwan, more than was approved for the island during the entire Biden administration.

In response, China launched major military drills around Taiwan that simulated a blockade, and Beijing is expected to do something similar if the $14 billion package moves forward.

Koo told reporters he was optimistic that the US would approve the arms sale because Taiwan had received "no notification" that its policy had changed. Cao also said that the US hadn’t discussed the issue with Taiwan.

"From the Defense Ministry’s standpoint, we continue to maintain communication with the US War Department," Koo said, according to The South China Morning Post.

"The reason we remain cautiously optimistic is because we believe that under unchanged US policy towards Taiwan, the core interest involved here is peace in the Taiwan Strait, and peace in the Taiwan Strait is a core interest of the United States."

Taiwan recently approved a $25 billion increase in military spending, intended exclusively for purchasing US weapons, though a US official said the Trump administration was "disappointed" that the amount wasn't higher.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 21:45

Oklo Lands DOE Plutonium Deal To Turn Surplus Material Into Bridge Fuel

Zero Hedge -

Oklo Lands DOE Plutonium Deal To Turn Surplus Material Into Bridge Fuel

Oklo just secured a direct path to turn Cold War-era plutonium into fuel for its advanced reactors.  

The Department of Energy selected Oklo for advanced negotiations under the Surplus Plutonium Utilization Program, one of five companies chosen to convert existing stockpiles into usable fuel under strict security and safeguards rules. The move gives Oklo a practical bridge while domestic enrichment capacity scales.  

Work with radioactive materials at a plutonium facility at the at Los Alamos National Laboratory in 1978.Credit

The Santa Clara company is partnering with European advanced reactor developer newcleo on the effort. Oklo would lead U.S. utilization of the surplus material while newcleo would supply fuel expertise and potential project capital, subject to final agreements and U.S. security approvals. 

The two firms already announced a strategic partnership last October that includes up to $2 billion in investment through a newcleo-affiliated vehicle for advanced fuel fabrication infrastructure in the United States. newcleo has since begun pre-application talks with the NRC for both a fuel facility and its lead-cooled fast reactor design.  

Fuel supply constraints are a key throttle to advanced reactor development,” Oklo CEO Jacob DeWitte said in the announcement. The program converts material previously destined for disposal into electricity-generating fuel through fission.  

This development builds directly on our prior coverage of Oklo’s plutonium work, including the announcement on the Oklo, NVIDIA, and Los Alamos collaboration exploring plutonium-powered AI applications. It also aligns with our earlier coverage on legislation that's been proposed for expanding the ability for reactor developers to deploy their technology on federal land, which also included language for repurposing additional surplus plutonium for reactor fuel purposes. 

The selection will almost certainly draw opposition from Democrats and environmental groups who have long resisted any use of plutonium in civilian power generation.

The stance grows more absurd as the same politicians push aggressive decarbonization targets. Past resistance to recycled nuclear fuel programs and surplus plutonium disposition efforts has repeatedly prioritized symbolic concerns over engineering reality, even as the material already exists and must be secured regardless. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 21:20

The Demonization Of Men (And Everyone Else Too)

Zero Hedge -

The Demonization Of Men (And Everyone Else Too)

Authored by Thomas Harrington via The Brownstone Institute,

Imagine the following message in a public space:  Caution: Area of Frequent Attempts at Reputational Destruction by Females

I have never seen a sign bearing the above message in any public space, nor do I want to.

Similarly, I have never seen a sign near a heavily African American neighborhood that says, “Caution, entering an area in which your chances of being the victim of a violent crime are statistically proven to be much higher than in other places.” 

And again, I do not want to. 

My reasons for not wanting to ever read these things are, or should be, self-evident to any reasonably thoughtful person: it is never permissible in a society that purports to be democratic to have the state apparatus cast moral aspersions upon an entire subset of the culture on the basis of that subset’s immutable characteristics. 

And yet, in many municipalities in the US and Europe there is a trend toward posting signs in public transport that, in various levels of explicitness, point toward all men as being gropers and harassers in potencia

For example, on a recent ride on the transport system of the Catalan Government I was informed, via messages on the wall of the rail car, that public entity will have “Zero tolerance with male violence” in the public areas it administers.

As I write I can already hear the objections of some readers. “Are you saying groping and male harassment does not exist on public transportation?” “Or that you have no interest in stopping it?”

I am saying nothing of the sort. 

Of course, it exists and it should not be tolerated. 

The question is whether in the attempts to eradicate the problem it is morally and legally responsible to use public monies to single out 49% of the population as constituting a lurking threat to each and every member of the other 51% of the population, with all that such signaling produces in the realm of generating widespread social distrust within the population. 

“But Tom, are you suggesting that sexual violence, however defined is not predominantly male-on-female in nature?”

Of course, not. 

No more than I am denying—as I suggested with the deliberately provocative passages of this essay—that in today’s universities, with their ever more female-dominated administrations and HR departments, reputational destruction aimed at sidelining or destroying the professional trajectories of rivals for power and privilege within the system is an overwhelmingly female-on-male form of violence, or that one’s chances of being an object of violence are clearly statistically greater in predominantly black areas of the US than in predominantly white ones. 

But as I suggested earlier no one, quite rightly, would ever think of using public monies to alert others to the dangers they might face from these two genetically determined sub-categories of human beings in these circumstances. 

However, given the tomb-like silence on the matter in our public discussions, it seems most are just fine with having the government signal citizens with the genetic trait of being male as constituting a special threat to public comity. 

As I have often said, it is never a waste of time to try and intuit the goals and methods of the small class of fabulously rich people who seem obsessed with constantly increasing the enormous level of control they already exert over the lives of the great mass of the population. 

I also know that the fact that men have greater testosterone levels, and hence much greater tendency and ability to physically challenge the forces of order deployed to protect the elite-favoring status quo and their disposition toward muscular forms of rebellion is a constant matter of concern among the ultra-powerful.

And because these ultra-powerful people also understand that the course an open social conflict can take is always unpredictable, they will, whenever possible, seek to head off such clashes by preemptive means. As the saying goes, the best battle is the one you win without ever fighting. 

So, how might you gain a preemptive victory against increasing legions of often quite justly pissed-off males? 

Easy. Use the culture-planning tools at your disposal as a member of the ultra-elite to systematically denigrate the “toxic” nature of traditional male attributes. 

And there is no better way do this than to do this than to seize upon one of the more ugly manifestations of traditional male behavior—sexual violence—and use it as a cudgel to discredit male attributes in general, including positive ones like the setting of hard limits, physical bravery in the face of hardship and unjust governance, and the desire to protect valuable social norms and traditions against the erosive forces of planned or unplanned social entropy. 

And the benefits to the super-elites of implicitly characterizing all males as potential sexual predators in the eyes of young females and many others do not end there. 

For some time now, it has been clear to anyone who has taken the time to look, that our current super-elites have an enormous disdain toward the vast majority of the human beings with whom they share the planet, seeing them mostly as obstacles to the implementation of their plans for more “efficient” (read: more favorable to them) distribution of the world’s good and services. 

For example, Curtis Yarvin, a misanthrope whose high opinion of himself far outstrips the demonstrated fruits of his intelligence and his humanity, and who has perhaps for this reason achieved that status a of “big thinker” in Silicon Valley technocratic circles, has spoken openly about the coming “dire problem” of what to do with what he calls the “mindless mass,” which is to say the excess of useless human beings that will be produced by technologically-enabled economic efficiencies. 

His solution? To house and feed them but keep them enclosed in a virtual world, supported by high quality virtual reality where they can’t gum up the wonderful plans for the marshaling of the world’s resources generated by the small and far-seeing thinking class. 

But, of course, an even better approach than this one would be to ensure that most of these useless eaters never get born in the first place. 

And we have witnessed a number of them in recent years. 

One is to run campaigns designed to convince confused and/or mentally ill teenagers that mutilating their sex organs is a lasting solution to their current unhappiness. Another is to rhetorically elevate abortion from the status it has had in all virtually healthy cultures up until now—a regrettable but perhaps occasionally necessary evil—to that of an unmitigated cultural good. 

But perhaps the simplest one of all is to convince one or the other side of the male-female dynamic that their would-be partners in procreation generally cannot be trusted to safeguard their own well-being or that of their would-be children. 

Hence, the current effort on public transport and in other public spaces to cast doubt upon the ability of the men in those places to act in a civilized and dignity-supporting manner. 

And it is working. And if you don’t believe me, take the time to speak to the 16–35-year-old cohort of women in your life, especially if they attended a “prestigious” institute of higher learning. 

Just as sure as they “know” that in every generation previous to their own queer-beating was a widely accepted and widely enjoyed sport among most straight men, they are “sure” that a happy and respectful complementarity of function in relations between men and women rarely, if ever existed in the past, and that the reason for this was that most men simply could not control their inherent need to dominate women and prevent them from becoming happy and fully developed individuals. 

Is it any wonder that births are reaching historically low levels in most Western countries? 

Yes, economics has a good deal to do with this phenomenon. But blaming it all on that obviates the fact that people have tended to reproduce through thick and thin throughout history. 

Indeed, bringing new life to the world has often been seen and practiced precisely as a key means of fighting against difficulty and oppression for the simple reason—one that elitist materialists who want to play God like Curtis Yarvin would never understand—that every new life is a miracle that contains the promise, however faint it at times might seem, of our species becoming a little more creative, a little more humane, and yes, a little more free. 

During the Covid operation, the government, working in concert with its corporate and media allies, deployed a wide variety of culture-planning techniques designed to enhance its ability to control the behavior of the population. 

Among the more important if least commented upon of these was arrogating to itself the “right” to identify as morally defective and in need of punishing remediation those who happened to disagree with the then administration’s view of bodily sovereignty. This is what took place when the formaldehyde-drenched Joe Biden was told by his handlers to say that he was “losing patience” with the 100 million or so American citizens who refused to take medically useless and, in many cases, dangerous vaccines. 

This case of the US president calling out the supposed “enemy within” on a matter that—given the vaccines’ manifest inability to prevent infection or transmission—was purely a matter of personal bodily sovereignty, should have produced widespread protest and revulsion. 

But it did not. And the designers of the Covid experiment obviously took note of this non-reaction and reasoned if they could get away with it in that case, what was to prevent them from doing the same in regard to other groups, first among them being society’s stronger, more aggressive and thus more potentially authority-resisting male cohort? 

And so here we are, with government-financed signs in public places that subtly but clearly suggest that people born male should be viewed by women not as noble protectors or carriers of wisdom or the many other positive things they often are, but as lurking vectors of violence. 

Who wins with that message? It’s certainly not most men, nor for that matter most women. 

It does work, however, for those super-elites who for reasons related to their obsessive drive to control resources as well as the comportment of their fellow human beings would like to see more social atomization, weaker families and communities, and ultimately fewer useless eaters to contend with. 

While each of us are free to come up with and live by our own privately held theories regarding the actions taken by, or in the name of, Collective X or Collective Y, it is never right for the government to do so, especially when that collective is defined by its birth characteristics. 

And if and when they do engage in this practice, know that despite what they might say, they are not doing it because they care for you or want to protect you, but because they want to sow discord or foster suspicions about a group they see as potentially standing in the way of their quest for ever more power. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 20:55

Second Chinese 'Combat' Patrol Buzzes Taiwan Within Days, On Heels Of Xi-Trump Summit

Zero Hedge -

Second Chinese 'Combat' Patrol Buzzes Taiwan Within Days, On Heels Of Xi-Trump Summit

In the wake of this month's Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, and as a 'paused' but still looming major US-approved weapons deal and transfer to Taipei is set to go forward, China is stepping up military patrols near and around the self-ruled island of Taiwan.

Taiwan's military is currently on high alert, having on Tuesday dispatched ships and fighter jets to monitor the second Chinese "joint combat readiness patrol" in a week near the island.

In a fresh post on X, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said its forces had responded to the situation after detecting 29 Chinese aircraft, including fighter jets, and seven warships operating around the island.

via Reuters

The ministry further alleged that two-dozen of the aerial sorties had crossed the median line, an unofficial maritime and aerial buffer zone dividing the Taiwan Strait, but which Beijing doesn't recognize as having any real legal bearing.

Joseph Wu, secretary-general of Taiwan’s National Security Council, issued some provocative remarks as the security situation unfolded, blasting China as being the sole source of instability in the Asia Pacific region.

"For the 2nd time in a week, shortly after the Beijing summit, the PLA conducted a 'joint combat readiness patrol' around Taiwan. We also spotted the Liaoning carrier group in the West Pacific. This is unprovoked. The PRC is the sole source of instability in the IndoPacific," he stated on X.

Ratcheting tensions stretched back through the weekend, with Reuters reporting that "On ⁠Saturday, Wu said China had deployed more than 100 ships up and down the first island chain, an area that stretches from Japan down to Taiwan and into the Philippines."

Last week we reported that China has been actively holding up a proposed visit by Elbridge Colbythe Pentagon's under-secretary of defense for policy. The move is a transparent effort to pressure President Trump over a looming $14 billion weapons package for Taiwan.

Sources familiar with the talks told the Financial Times that Beijing signaled it "cannot approve a visit until Trump decides how he will proceed with the arms package."

Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao has since revealed that the US is indeed pausing the $14BN arms sale in question, though he framed the move as due to the Trump administration's war with Iran.

He said this was to make sure there's plenty of missile supply and interceptors to execute the war, especially in the scenario that a full aerial bombing operation is renewed. 

Given the ongoing Iran crisis and Hormuz Strait standoff, and with a US military build-up in the Middle East region, if China did want to move on Taiwan there's probably nothing that Washington could do about it. However, Beijing has long maintained its stance that it wants reunification through political means.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 20:30

'Giant Turd': Progressive Dems Continue To Rage At DNC 2024 Autopsy

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'Giant Turd': Progressive Dems Continue To Rage At DNC 2024 Autopsy

Authored by Corbin Trent via Common Dreams

This past week the DNC released its autopsy of the 2024 election. DNC chair Ken Martin sat on it for months, assured us there was no smoking gun, promised he’d already been sharing the lessons, and then finally dropped the 48,000 words on a Thursday with a note on the front saying the findings don’t reflect the views of the DNC. He released the autopsy and disowned it simultaneously.

I get why he'd disown it. It's a big turd. But the whole time he buried it, Martin kept saying the lessons from this report were already being put to work. Lessons. We’re keeping the focus on the lessons, he’d say. We’ve been releasing the lessons. I read it, most of it. It’s not that there are no recommendations. There are plenty. Go heavier on digital and connected TV, lighter on broadcast. Organize earlier. Rebuild the state parties. Those are the lessons. If they’ve taken any of them, they’ve taken the wrong ones, and there’s a reason for that.

Every question in the report is a variation on the same question. How do we campaign better with what we’ve got? How do we market this thing more effectively to the people we’re trying to sell it to? Never once do they stop and ask whether the thing they’re selling is bullshit. Whether the product is any good. Whether a single promise in it would fix a single person’s life.

Every problem this autopsy was built to diagnose is still here in 2026, we've yet to solve a damn one of them.

Getty Images

It was never about governing. It was about winning for the sake of winning, with no theory of what to do with the power once they have it. The DNC still isn’t looking for a mission of its own. It tells the campaigns to build their own contrast and definition and leaves the meaning to everyone else. The party is a machine with no idea what it's for.

To the contrary, it's pretty pleased with itself. The report never once treats the Biden record as a failure. Its gripe about Bidenomics isn’t that it failed people, it’s that the message leaned on big macro statistics instead of the daily reality people were actually living. When the party lost down the ballot, the report decided strong local candidates just needed to define themselves better. They’re certain Democrats are doing a great job, and that it’s just their inability to explain how awesome they are that keeps them out of power.

What I see in this report is the Biden administration in miniature. Biden was sold to us, by the press and by his own people, as proof of what Democrats could do if they got back to their FDR roots. We got the CHIPS Act. We got the IRA. We got the bipartisan infrastructure law. We were told it was the most historic spending in generations. But the rubber never hits the road. Lives weren’t transformed. Why? Because these people refuse to admit that the systems they are funding are no longer productive.

They refuse to look at the difference between an input and an output. Effort and results. You can pour trillions into a financialized housing market and a six-trillion-dollar healthcare industry, but if you never touch the monopolies and the middlemen and the rot underneath, nothing useful comes out the other side. It’s worse than that. Pour more money into an out-of-control healthcare industry and all you’ve built is a stronger monopoly, a more powerful opponent.

It was never about governing. It was about winning for the sake of winning, with no theory of what to do with the power once they have it.

The net result of all that historic spending is a Democratic Party that seventy percent of voters can’t stand and that can’t get above water with its own base. A lot of money. A lot of effort. Nothing delivered. Same as the report.

If you doubt where the party’s head is, count the words. The report runs 48,000 of them. “Spend” shows up 350 times. “Data,” 226. “Organizing,” 211. “Fundraising,” 150. “Monopoly,” zero. “Cost of living,” zero. “Affordability,” four. “Healthcare,” twice. That’s not an analysis of a country in pain. That’s a sales team studying its own pipeline.

Then there’s the New York Times, coming to the rescue with much-needed polling and data. The paper of record put out a poll a few days ago, I assume in an effort to find out how Americans actually feel and what they want from their politics and government. Among people who plan to vote for Democrats, socialism runs favorable by twenty-seven points, 49 to 22. Those same people turn around and say, 52 to 25, that the party should move to the center to win. The Times wants you to read that as confused voters. They aren’t confused. The question is garbage. This is the paper that fancies itself the one asking the hard questions and uncovering the real America, and the hard question it managed to come up with was whether the party should move left, right, or not at all on healthcare.

What does that mean? What’s the policy? What changes in your life? They don’t say. You decide. They never asked whether you want a zero-copay, zero-cost national health plan. They never asked whether we should go back to a country where the states and the cities and the government own some of the hospitals and the clinics and the research labs. They asked left or right, defined nothing, and then acted stunned when people handed them a tangle.

They asked exactly one real policy question in the whole poll. Whether you’d rather have a candidate who lowers prices by going after corporate monopolies and price gougers, or one who lowers prices by deregulating and building more. Better than two to one, people said go after the ones with the power. The reason was sitting right there. The good sense was sitting right there. They just wouldn’t go looking for it anywhere else.

The good sense was sitting right there. They just wouldn’t go looking for it anywhere else.

They keep us trapped in left and right because it’s the frame they know how to sell. But the world isn’t left and right, and I’m not sure it ever was. It’s something they lay over the top of us, the same way they sort us into black, white, Latino, Jew, Gentile, Muslim, Quaker, the way a zoologist sorts fish into types. It might be a fine theory for eking out a marginal election here and there. It’s a useless theory for fixing a broken system. And there’s overwhelming agreement out there that the system is broken.

Every problem this autopsy was built to diagnose is still here in 2026, we’ve yet to solve a damn one of them. The NYT poll proves it. Same disgust, same broken trust, same party underwater with its own people. Nothing got fixed because nothing got understood. And they’re going to win anyway. Not because they earned it. Because the other side is handing it to them.

So they’ll win in November, call it proof the model works, and walk right back into the same wall in 2028 having learned nothing. Winning is the very thing that lets them skip getting better.

We’re in a deeply unpopular war in the Middle East. Gas is climbing. The president is corrupt as hell and everyone can see it. The headwind is so strong that, as Pelosi once put it, you could run a glass of water with a D next to its name and win in half these districts. So they’ll win in November, call it proof the model works, and walk right back into the same wall in 2028 having learned nothing. Winning is the very thing that lets them skip getting better.

So no, I don’t think we live in a left-right world anymore. We live in a world of capacity, of competency, of outcomes. That’s the whole game now, and it’s exactly where the government and the corporations have failed us, over and over, while the political class argues about a spectrum that means nothing to a family trying to buy groceries. It is not baked in. I’ve spent ten years trying to build something that takes that seriously, and I’m going again, harder, with my latest political project: A Fight Worth Having. How we do it, and why I think the people telling us to keep our hands clean have it exactly backwards, is next.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 20:05

Condo Prices Already Dropped By Up To 33% In 24 Bigger Markets

Zero Hedge -

Condo Prices Already Dropped By Up To 33% In 24 Bigger Markets

Authored by Wolf Richter via Wolf Street,

The price drops are getting relentlessly steeper: In 24 bigger markets, prices of mid-tier condos through April have dropped by 15% to 33% from their respective peaks between 2021 and 2024.

Each of the markets is shown in a chart below: 24 mindboggling charts, depicting breath-taking price explosions, especially from mid-2020 to mid-2022, exceeding 50%, 60%, or even 70% in just two years in some cities. In the 10 years to the peak, prices had soared by 180% to 350% in these markets. And these bubbles have started to deflate.

In 2 of the cities, prices of mid-tier condos dropped by over 30%. In five other markets, prices dropped by 20% to 28%. In another 3 cities, prices dropped by 19%. These are starting to be substantial declines over a multiyear period.

In several of these markets, condo prices have now dropped below their peaks of Housing Bubble 1 in 2006/2007 and are back where they'd been 20 years ago. In a few other markets, prices have dropped close to their peaks of Housing Bubble 1. Those charts are marked with a red line.

There are also many smaller markets where condo prices have dropped just as much or more, but that are not included here because they're too small.

Most of the markets here are "cities." But the line-up also includes three counties where the cities, though household names, are too small to be included individually. And it includes one metropolitan statistical area, the Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA in Florida, for the same reason.

In some densely populated cities, condos and co-ops make up a big part or the majority of home sales. In most other markets, condos are a much smaller portion of home sales.

Rank Market Since Peak Year Of Peak 1 Cape Coral, FL -33% 2022 2 Oakland, CA -31% 2022 3 St. Petersburg, FL -28% 2022 4 Austin, TX -27% 2022 5 Fort Myers, FL -26% 2023 6 Sarasota County, FL -24% 2022 7 Tampa, FL -20% 2022 8 Garland, TX -19% 2022 9 Jacksonville, FL -19% 2022 10 Detroit, MI -19% 2021 11 Collier County (Naples), FL -18% 2022 12 Denver, CO -17% 2022 13 Arlington, TX -17% 2024 14 Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA, FL -17% 2024 15 Aurora, CO -17% 2022 16 Orlando, FL -16% 2024 17 Raleigh, NC -16% 2022 18 Port Saint Lucie, FL -16% 2024 19 Hayward, CA -15% 2022 20 San Mateo County (Silicon Valley), CA -15% 2022 21 Seattle, WA -15% 2022 22 Reno, NV -15% 2022 23 Mesa, AZ -15% 2024 24 Plano, TX -15% 2022 Those That Didn't Make The 15% Cutoff

In many cities, condo prices have dropped by 14% or less, and they didn't make the 15% cutoff here. Below is a sample list of 41 bigger cities where prices have dropped by 7% to 14% from their respective peaks.

Rank Market Since Peak Year Of Peak 1 Fremont, CA -14% 2022 2 Portland, OR -14% 2022 3 Boise, ID -14% 2022 4 Clarksville, TN -14% 2022 5 Chandler, AZ -14% 2022 6 Phoenix, AZ -14% 2022 7 San Antonio, TX -13% 2024 8 Houston, TX -13% 2024 9 Scottsdale, AZ -13% 2022 10 Glendale, AZ -13% 2022 11 Huntsville, AL -13% 2022 12 Irving, TX -12% 2023 13 Sacramento, CA -12% 2022 14 Fort Lauderdale, FL -12% 2022 15 Dallas, TX -12% 2023 16 Tempe, AZ -12% 2022 17 Corpus Christi, TX -12% 2023 18 Stockton, CA -12% 2022 19 Colorado Springs, CO -12% 2022 20 San Francisco, CA -11% 2022 21 Henderson, NV -11% 2022 22 Las Vegas -11% 2022 23 New Orleans, LA -11% 2022 24 Spokane, WA -10% 2022 25 Atlanta, GA -9% 2023 26 New York City -9% 2022 27 Washington, DC -9% 2022 28 Nashville, TN -9% 2022 29 Salt Lake City, UT -9% 2022 30 Elk Grove, CA -9% 2022 31 San Jose, CA -8% 2022 32 Memphis, TN -8% 2022 33 Gilbert, AZ -8% 2022 34 Miami, FL -8% 2023 35 San Diego, CA -8% 2024 36 Marietta, GA -8% 2024 37 Oklahoma City, OK -7% 2023 38 Tucson, AZ -7% 2023 39 St. Louis, MO -8% 2023 40 Long Beach, CA -7% 2023 41 Minneapolis, MN -7% 2021

Methodology and data: These prices here are seasonally adjusted three-month averages of "mid-tier" condos and co-ops from the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is based on millions of data points in Zillow's "Database of All Homes," including from public records (tax data), MLS, brokerages, local Realtor Associations, real-estate agents, and households across the US. It includes pricing data for off-market deals and for-sale-by-owner deals. These are not median prices.

The Condo Bust By Market In 24 Charts

The tables for each market below show from left to right: price decline from the peak, change from prior month (MoM), change year-over-year (YoY), and remaining increase since January 2000.

Market From Peak MoM YoY Since 2000 Cape Coral, FL -33% -0.4% -14.2% 130% Oakland, CA -31% -0.7% -12.6% 140% St. Petersburg, FL -28% -0.5% -12.4% 181% Austin, TX -27% -0.8% -5.9% 107% Fort Myers, FL -26% -0.5% -14% 121% Sarasota County, FL -24% -0.3% -12.0% 134% Tampa, FL -20% -0.6% -10.1% 250% Garland, TX -19% -1.0% -13.1% 209% Jacksonville, FL -19% -0.6% -8.8% 144% Detroit, MI -19% -0.5% -7.2% 245% Collier County (Naples), FL -18% -0.4% -7.0% 158% Denver, CO -17% -1.0% -6.5% 130% Arlington, TX -17% -0.3% -5.8% 228% Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL -17% -0.4% -8.5% 125% Aurora, CO -16% -0.8% -7.5% 196% Orlando, FL -16% -0.7% -9.2% 150.4% Raleigh, NC -16% -0.6% -8.1% 134.0% Port Saint Lucie, FL -16% -0.1% -8.3% 229% Hayward, CA -15% -0.9% -8.9% 178% San Mateo County (Silicon Valley), CA -15% -0.4% -5.6% 194% Seattle, WA -15% -0.9% -5.2% 133% Reno, NV -15% 0.0% -4.1% 241% Mesa, AZ -15% -0.6% -4.4% 200% Plano, TX -15% -0.9% -8.6% 126%

Prices in Oakland are back to where they'd first been in mid-2005, and that was 21 years ago. Prices are down a lot, but are still very high.

Prices in Fort Myers are back where they'd first been in April 2006, exactly 20 years ago.

Prices in Sarasota County are back where they'd first been in early 2006, exactly 20 years ago.

The county forms the northern portion of Silicon Valley.

Condos As Home, Rental Property, Or Speculative Bet

Some people buy condos as a home to live in an urban center or along the shore, to enjoy the big views, nice amenities, or central location. They value the worry-free living, such as not having to mess with maintenance, repairs, and yardwork; or having staff at a desk by the front door. Some value not having to climb stairs, etc.

Others buy condos as rental properties as a way to get into the multifamily rental business, or they try their hand at short-term vacation rentals. Or they buy them as vacation homes. Others, especially nonresident foreign investors, buy condos to park some cash in the US and watch the price spiral higher from a distance. It's these investors and speculators that make condos particularly speculative.

A Reminder Of The Special Issues That Condos Confront
  • Over the long term, land appreciates, most buildings depreciate to zero and are eventually torn down. The land that big condo buildings sit on can be very valuable, but each condo owner only owns a tiny slice of it. The rest of their investment is in the building. A single-family house may sit on less valuable land, but the homeowner gets 100% of any appreciation of the land.
  • Prices that exploded over the past few years ended up being way too high, once the mania settled down.
  • Hefty special assessments, or the fear of them, for long-neglected major repairs dog some older condo buildings.
  • Big increases in HOA fees at many properties, partly driven by spiking insurance costs in natural disaster zones, add substantially to the monthly costs of condos.
  • If a condo building is on Fannie Mae's Blacklist, financing a unit in that building gets very difficult, and sales may be limited to cash buyers who'll exact their pound of flesh.
  • The Free Money has ended, and mortgage rates are roughly back to a normal range. Buyers of single-family homes face the same issue.
  • Foreign-based owners who've had it with the US and want to sell. And there are fewer foreign-based buyers.
  • Investors in condos as rental properties are facing stiff competition from a wave of newly completed higher-end apartment buildings that developers are trying to find tenants for.
Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 19:15

Hezbollah Chief Naim Qassem Targeted Twice In Recent Israeli Assassination Ops

Zero Hedge -

Hezbollah Chief Naim Qassem Targeted Twice In Recent Israeli Assassination Ops

The single biggest, and most historic development out of Lebanon in recent years was the Israeli assassination of longtime Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah on September 27, 2024, via massive bunker-busting airstrikes on his underground location in south Beirut.

Since then, Hezbollah's leadership has been greatly degraded, also given the widescale pager explosion attacks. To fill the leadership vacuum, a co-founder of Hezbollah, and its first deputy secretary-general who had long assisted Nasrallah, Naim Qassem, stepped in as new Secretary-General.

via the Long War Journal

But now, Israel is once again trying to accomplish a 'decapitation strike' - reportedly having targeted Qassem in at least two recent operations thus far.

Jerusalem Post writes Tuesday that "Israel has attempted to target Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem at least twice in recent weeks, Saudi outlet Al Hadath reported on Monday, citing an anonymous Israeli source."

"The report came shortly after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement that he had instructed the IDF to intensify attacks against the terrorist organization," JPost continues.

Crowds have especially fleeing Beirut's Dahiya district following the announcement of the escalation. Since Gaza war began, this district has been hit many times. It seems that Israel suspects he's in this area, and historic Hezbollah stronghold. 

Monday saw expanded attacks across Lebanon, including Tyre, and Bekaa Valley, and the pace of airstrikes is expected to ramp up.

Al Jazeera earlier cited the Israeli army, which indicated thatMore than 70 Hezbollah infrastructure sites across the country were hit Monday, some 10 headquarters and weapons depots in the Tyre area were struck, and an unspecified number of Hezbollah fighters on motorcycles were killed or wounded in the south. And now...

NETANYAHU SAYS ISRAELI MILITARY OPERATING WITH 'LARGE FORCES ON GROUND' IN SOUTHERN LEBANON AND TAKING CONTROL OF 'STRATEGIC AREAS'

While no new Beirut strikes were immediately forthcoming Monday into much of Tuesday, the IDF has issued evacuation orders for some southern suburbs, and people are fleeing, given past experiences of massive bombing raids:

Gong back to early March, over 3,180 Lebanese have been killed, with more than 9,000 wounded - according to Lebanese health officials. The figures do not distinguish between armed combatants or civilians.

Critics of Israel have warned that Netanyahu is trying to sabotage Trump's efforts to find a final peace deal with Iran. The Israelis have long worried that Washington could in the end settle for a 'bad deal' - or one that doesn't ensure the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear program and highly enriched uranium.

* * *

Much further south, in Gaza, the IDF has reportedly taken out the leader of Hamas' Qassam Brigades...

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 18:50

Does Demand Create Supply?

Zero Hedge -

Does Demand Create Supply?

Authored by Frank Shostak via Mises Institute,

By popular thinking, increases in demand cause economic growth. According to such thought, whenever the economy falls into a recession what is required is to strengthen demand. Since government is seen as an important part of total demand, what is then required is to increase government outlays, thereby lifting overall demand and hence increasing economic growth.

According to the popular view, it is also possible to strengthen overall demand through the inflationary increases in money supply. With more money in their possession, and for given prices, the so-called real balances will increase and this, in turn, will strengthen individuals' expenditure on goods and services. This allegedly will strengthen the economy's overall demand and will strengthen economic growth. A decline in the prices for a given money supply will also boost the real balances and thus the economic growth. But does it make sense that demand is the key driver of the economy?

In the free market economy, wealth-generators do not produce everything for their own consumption. Part of their production is used to exchange for the products of other producers. Hence, in the free market economy, production precedes consumption. This means that something is exchanged for something else. This also means that an increase in the production of goods and services sets in motion an increase in the demand for goods and services. According to David Ricardo,

No man produces but with a view to consume or sell, and he never sells but with an intention to purchase some other commodity, which may be immediately useful to him, or which may contribute to future production. By producing, then, he necessarily becomes either the consumer of his own goods, or the purchaser and consumer of the goods of some other person.

An individual's demand is constrained by his ability to produce goods demanded by others. The more goods that an individual can produce, the more goods he can demand.

Expanding Private Savings: Key To Economic Growth

Without the expansion and the enhancement of the production structure, it is difficult to increase the supply of goods and services. The expansion and enhancement of the production structure hinges on the expansion of production, private saving, and capital investment. Saving supports individuals in the various stages of production. It supports individuals that are employed in the enhancement and the expansion of the production structure. Hence, what matters for economic growth is not just tools, machinery, and labor, but saving and investment in capital goods.

Government Is Not A Wealth-Generator

Contrary to popular thinking, the government does not produce any wealth. Increases in government spending cannot grow the economy. By nature, the government must take from the private, productive economy to facilitate any of its actions. By doing this, the government weakens the wealth-generating process and undermines prospects for economic recovery during a downturn. According to Rothbard,

Since genuine demand only comes from the supply of products, and since the government is not productive, it follows that government spending cannot truly increase demand.

Likewise, an increase in money supply only sets in motion an exchange of nothing for something. This means a weakening in the process of wealth formation and leads to economic impoverishment.

An important factor that makes the fiscal and monetary stimulus appear to "work" is if the amount of private savings is large enough to support non-wealth generating activities while still permitting a growth rate in the activities of wealth generators. It also gives the appearance of wealth as new sectors are stimulated. Additionally, if funded by inflation, the benefits of inflation appear early and are only realized later.

If, however, voluntary saving is declining, then, regardless of any increase in government spending and inflation by the central bank, overall economic activity cannot be revived. In this case, the more the government spends, and the more the central bank inflates, the more will be taken from wealth-generators, thereby weakening any prospect for a recovery. Additionally, these measures will further distort the economy.

As one can see, not only does the increase in the expansionary fiscal and monetary policies not raise overall output, but, on the contrary, it leads to a weakening in the process of wealth generation in general. According to Say,

...the only real consumers are those who produce on their part, because they alone can buy the produce of others, [while]...barren consumers can buy nothing except by the means of value created by producers.

Conclusion

By popular thinking, increases in government spending and central bank inflation strengthens the economy's overall demand. This, in turn, sets in motion increases in the production of goods and services. What we have here is a claim that "demand creates supply." However, to be able to exchange something for goods and services, individuals must first have something that others want. This means that, in order to demand goods and services, individuals must produce something useful first. Hence, supply drives demand and not the other way around. Governments, by nature, must take from the private, productive sector in order to fund their activities. Increases in government spending and the money supply growth rate results in the diversion of savings from the wealth-generators to non-wealth-generators, thus undermining the wealth generating process.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 18:25

Homeowners Face Eminent Domain Bulldozers As Data Centers Demand Ever More Power

Zero Hedge -

Homeowners Face Eminent Domain Bulldozers As Data Centers Demand Ever More Power

Georgia Power isn’t negotiating anymore. The Southern Company subsidiary is seizing dozens of homes and hundreds of easements across Coweta and Fayette counties to ram through a 35-mile, 500-kilovolt transmission line that will feed at least four massive AI data centers. Project Wansley is just the latest flashpoint in a backlash that has been building for months.

QTS Data Center in Fayetteville, Georgia

At least 20 to 30 homes face outright demolition. Another 300-plus properties will get permanent easements for towers planted in backyards and next to pools.

But residents like Ansley Brown are fighting back. Her mother bought their family home in 2003 through a USDA rural development loan for single mothers. Now the utility wants the property for the corridor. Brown’s viral TikTok exposing the lowball offers (she says $70,000 to $100,000 below market) has racked up millions of views and drawn state lawmakers into the fight. 

Ansley Brown, 27, whose mother purchased the family's childhood home in 2003 through a federal USDA loan for single mothers, became the face of the resistance after a TikTok video she posted drew more than 6 million views and caught the attention of state legislators.

Georgia Power says the line is essential.

The company is racing to add roughly 10 gigawatts of new generating capacity over the next five years, with executives openly stating that  about 80% of that power will go to data centers. Meanwhile, transmission has become the bottleneck, and utilities are turning to eminent domain to clear the path.

This isn’t happening in isolation. We’ve been pounding the table on data center resistance, from Northern Virginia counties rejecting new substations to Texas communities suing over water drawdowns and power rate spikes. The pattern is the same: hyperscale demand collides with local infrastructure limits, and the costs get socialized while the profits stay private.

Electricity prices are already feeling the pressure. Utilities across the Southeast and Midwest have warned of double-digit residential rate hikes tied directly to data center load growth. Georgia Power’s own filings show residential customers absorbing a growing share of the bill for transmission and generation built primarily for big tech. 

The same dynamic is playing out with Meta’s Georgia facilities, where local reporting has highlighted water quality complaints, including muddy runoff affecting nearby residents, alongside the power demands.

We’ve seen this movie before with pipelines and wind farms. The difference now is the sheer scale of the load and the speed at which it’s arriving. Data centers don’t just want power; they want it yesterday, and they’re willing to let utilities use the state’s hammer to get it. The pushback in Georgia is a warning shot as more communities draw the same line.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 18:00

Iraq's Oil Collapse Sparks Race For New Export Routes

Zero Hedge -

Iraq's Oil Collapse Sparks Race For New Export Routes

Authored by Simon Watkins via OilPrice.com,

  • Iraq's oil production has collapsed to just 1.39 million bpd after the Strait of Hormuz blockade stranded exports.

  • Baghdad is urgently trying to revive northern export routes through Turkey, including the Kirkuk-Ceyhan system and a new Kirkuk-Nineveh pipeline.

  • China is re-emerging as a major strategic player in Iraq's energy infrastructure, with Chinese firms heavily involved in Baghdad's new north-south pipeline expansion.

April was indeed the cruellest month for decades for Iraq's crude oil production, with an average of 1.389 million barrels per day (bpd) over the period. This compares to a monthly average of 3.47 million bpd from January 2002 to the end of March this year, and an average of over 4.1 million bpd in the three months leading up to the onset of the U.S./Israel-Iran War on 28 February. The last time oil production fell to the current level in the country was in the early 2000s, during and immediately following the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. Even for a diversified economy, this would spell bad news, but for Iraq, it is existential, with over 90% of its annual budget historically coming from oil and around 95% of that black gold having to pass through the still-blockaded Strait of Hormuz before it is monetised. The effective closure of that key export route meant that Iraq's domestic oil storage tanks quickly filled to maximum capacity, and because it has extremely limited options to transport its crude elsewhere, it has been forced to shut down production wells entirely. As disastrous as it is now, even worse may be to come soon, as these shutdowns can cause permanent damage to wells through a loss of reservoir pressure, water infiltration, and corrosion, among other factors. In Iraq's case, many of its biggest mature southern fields are highly susceptible to these problems. This is why the race has been on in Baghdad to secure other export options, most notably now, pipeline options in the north, but these bring their own sets of problems with them.

Historically, moving oil from the southern part of Iraq administered by the Federal Government of Iraq (FGI) in Baghdad was a largely redundant exercise, with little demand for it from Europe that was not already being filled by oil coming from the country's semi-autonomous northern region, presided over by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Instead, the onus of the FGI's export drive was to the East, especially to China - a route involving the Strait of Hormuz. This was also a pivotal means by which sanctioned Iranian crude oil could be surreptitiously transported to the same destination, rebranded as non-sanctioned Iraqi oil, with all elements involved in this mechanism analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Aside from the ongoing conflicts with Washington that this continued practice brought with it for Baghdad, it also meant that the Federal Government could focus on measures aimed at stopping the KRG's oil exports to Europe via a pipeline running into the Turkish port of Ceyhan, thus pressuring its ability to generate financing independent of Baghdad. This was central to Baghdad's long-term objective to destroy the economic infrastructure of the Kurdistan region before rolling it into the remainder of a unified Iraq as just a regular administrative region. The idea was in line with the geopolitical ambitions of Baghdad's superpower sponsors, China and Russia, as also detailed thoroughly in my latest book. These objectives were outlined some time ago by a very senior member of the Russian administration to a senior source who works closely with Iran's Petroleum Ministry, and then exclusively relayed to OilPrice.com: "By keeping the West out of energy deals in Iraq, the end of Western hegemony in the Middle East will become the decisive chapter in the West's final demise." On the other hand, the U.S. and its allies wanted to bolster the independence of the Kurdistan region to act as leverage to extend their influence in the rest of Iraq to the south. Their objective was to have the Kurdistan region expel all Chinese, Russian, and Iranian companies from the region, and then to gradually push for the same to happen in the rest of Iraq.

The key lever Baghdad used to effect this plan to subsume the northern Kurdistan region was a deal struck in 2014, in which the FGI pledged to send the KRG money each month from Iraq's central government budget (17% at the time the deal was made) in exchange for the KRG pledging to send oil produced in its region (around 550,000 bpd at the time of the initial deal) to the FGI. The deal has never worked properly, with either Baghdad accusing Erbil of underdelivering oil (and selling it separately outside the terms of the agreement) or Erbil accusing Baghdad of underpaying from the budget - or both simultaneously. This, though, has caused a big problem for Baghdad since the outbreak of U.S./Israel-Iran War, in that the KRG had the only workable pipeline solution that would enable Baghdad to move its oil anywhere for monetisation through exports. Moreover, the supply/demand dynamics shifted so that European refiners grew desperate to secure any replacement barrels to compensate for those that had come through the Strait. To capitalise on this - but with no fully working pipeline itself, and disagreements with the KRG still simmering away - Baghdad has resorted in recent weeks to transporting oil to Turkey as and when it can through trucks overland.

Something is better than nothing, of course, but these volumes pale into insignificance when compared to those that could be achieved through a working pipeline, and it is this that Baghdad is aiming to get up and running as soon as possible. Not that long ago, the FGI had an oil pipeline that ran from the disputed, federally-controlled Kirkuk province adjacent to Iraq's Kurdistan region to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. It ran northwest from the Kirkuk K1 field through federal territory (the Salahaddin and Nineveh provinces, near Mosul) up to the border town of Fishkhabur. This "original" Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline or Iraq-Turkey Pipeline (ITP) consisted of two pipes, which theoretically had a nameplate capacity of 1.6 million bpd combined and was split into 1.1 million bpd for the 46-inch (1,168-mm) diameter pipe and 500,000 bpd for the 40-inch (1,016-mm) line. This FGI-controlled pipeline's export capacity reached between 250,000 and 400,000 bpd when running normally, but even before the Islamic State entered the picture in 2014, the pipeline was subject to repeated and ongoing attacks by various Sunni militant groups operating in the region. Given its unreliability as an export option, the KRG constructed its own single side-track pipeline, from the Taq Taq field through Khurmala, which joins the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline in the border town of Fishkhabur. This had a nameplate capacity of 700,000 bpd, which was then increased to 1 million bpd, although it has so far reached only 900,000 bpd.

With or without a peace deal between Iran and the U.S./Israel alliance, Baghdad is now pushing ahead with the Kirkuk-Nineveh pipeline as part of the Iraq-Turkey crude oil pipeline extending to Ceyhan Port on the Mediterranean Sea, which is independent of the KRG. The Kirkuk-to-Nineveh line is not a standalone project, but rather is the vital northern leg of the rehabilitated federal network, proving the physical pipe required to carry oil around the KRG's territory and deliver it directly to the Fishkhabur border terminal. The 350,000-bpd design capacity of this Kirkuk-to-Nineveh segment reflects the Oil Ministry's cautious, phased approach, as they cannot safely test the entire 1.6 million bpd nameplate capacity of the old system at once. Opening this 350,000-bpd pipeline allows Baghdad to easily handle the initial trial target of 150,000 to 250,000 bpd of Kirkuk crude next month. Moreover, once the southern Basra-to-Haditha corridor is built, it will plug into this newly opened Kirkuk-Nineveh-Fishkhabur line, creating a seamless, high-volume flow from the Persian Gulf to Turkey - at least, that is the idea.

However, just when the West thought that Iraq might be moving back into its own sphere of influence and away from China's, Beijing's hand has appeared again in this grand pipeline project. To obviate any future problems that might come in transporting oil from its massive southern fields out into the world, Baghdad is working to connect these directly to the northern network, and to achieve this, it has agreed to partner heavily with Chinese engineering firms. This will be part of the US$1.5 billion emergency infrastructure budget approved by former Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani that ties into the 2019 "Oil-for-Projects" agreement between Baghdad and Beijing, fully analysed in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Suffice it to say here that under this framework, Iraq sets aside 150,000 barrels of oil per day in an escrow account to serve as collateral for such work undertaken by Chinese entities. Indeed, Baghdad bypassed traditional open public bidding to directly invite specialised Chinese state companies to fast-track construction of the US$5 billion Basra-to-Haditha pipeline - the 700-kilometre mega-corridor designed to pump 2.5 million bpd from the south up toward the northern networks.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 17:00

Reuters Peddles Fake News After Defense Contractor Misuses Civilian Starlink Terminals

Zero Hedge -

Reuters Peddles Fake News After Defense Contractor Misuses Civilian Starlink Terminals

Reuters dropped another misleading article today - this time attempting to manufacture drama between the Pentagon and SpaceX over Starlink usage during the Iran conflict.

The story framed routine commercial contract discussions and terms-of-service enforcement as major "tensions" and growing Pentagon reliance giving Elon Musk undue leverage.

Reuters' version of events was that SpaceX used wartime urgency to raise the price of Starlink connections on U.S. drones from roughly $5,000 to $25,000 per terminal, forcing the Pentagon to pay up while exposing how dependent the military has become on Musk-controlled infrastructure.

The reality, according to Musk, is that the dispute centered on a more basic issue: a drone manufacturer or contractor allegedly used civilian Starlink terminals on military weapon systems, including drones, in violation of Starlink's commercial terms of service, when the proper government and defense product is Starshield. In other words, Reuters framed the episode as a price-gouging and leverage story, while SpaceX and the Pentagon framed it as a contract-compliance story involving the misuse of civilian satellite service for weapons applications.

Musk was clear in multiple posts that this is a longstanding policy. Commercial Starlink is not authorized for weapons applications and is shut down when discovered.

The Pentagon also pushed back on the story.

Pentagon officials have emphasized the strong partnership with SpaceX, which provides critical capabilities through its Starshield military variant. Starshield terminals are designed for secure government and defense use, connecting to both commercial and dedicated secure constellations.

The Reuters piece, of course, relied on anonymous sources and selectively presented pricing discussions while ignoring the core issue of contract compliance. Musk has consistently maintained that commercial Starlink terms prohibit weaponization, a point he has reiterated across multiple conflicts.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 16:40

Defending The Fourth Amendment To Protect Gun Owners

Zero Hedge -

Defending The Fourth Amendment To Protect Gun Owners

Authored by John Velleco via Gun Owners of America,

All gun owners fully understand the vital importance of preserving the Second Amendment. But right behind that Constitutional Amendment in importance is the need to uphold the Fourth Amendment’s protection against unreasonable searches and seizures.

After all, without robust Fourth Amendment rights, we will never have much of a Second Amendment right. For that reason, both Gun Owners of America and Gun Owners Foundation have regularly filed amicus briefs to guard against erosion of Fourth Amendment rights. We recently filed such an amicus brief in the U.S. Supreme Court, asking the High Court to ensure that law enforcement not abuse the investigative technique known as “knock and talk.”

As more and more states seek to ban more and more classes of previously legal firearms, gun confiscation has become an ever-greater threat. Historically, the Fourth Amendment’s protections have been greatest when applied to the home, which also happens to be where most guns are kept. The Supreme Court has discussed the right of a man to retreat into his own home and there be free from unreasonable governmental intrusion.

However, the courts have recognized that police have the right to “knock” on the door of your home, and “talk” to you - if you agree to speak. In Florida v. Jardines, 569 U.S. 1 (2013), the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that all visitors - including the police - have an “implicit license” to “[i] approach the home by the front path, [ii] knock promptly, [iii] wait briefly to be received, and then (absent invitation to linger longer) [iv] leave.” That rule seems entirely reasonable - but it is astonishing how police have come to abuse that “implicit license.”

In a recently decided case from North Carolina, State v. Reel, 297 N.C. App. 205 (N.C. Ct. App. 2024), the police broke every one of the rules, but the search was upheld. The officers suspected drug dealing was going on at a house, so they parked on a side street and crossed the defendant’s side yard - not the front yard. They followed a visitor to the front door, and when the defendant opened the door for the visitor, tried to force their way in behind her. The police never actually knocked. And, they never actually talked - except to demand the door be opened so they could rush in, claiming to have smelled marijuana. When the defendant refused and shut the door, another officer kicked in the door, searching for and seizing drugs. Thus, “knock and talk” was used as a pretext to conduct a warrantless search and seizure in a home. Nevertheless, North Carolina’s two highest courts approved.

GOA’s amicus brief urged the U.S. Supreme Court to impose a “bright-line” rule for law enforcement, so officers would know their limits, and judges would have a clear rule to enforce. We argue that since the “implied license” was based on the fact that any visitor - such as trick-or-treaters or girl scouts - to a house could “knock and talk,” the police could do the same. So we took that justification and suggested it be made the rule – a clear limitation on what the police could do. We proposed the rule to be:

The right of a police officer to conduct a “knock-and-talk” is no greater than a Girl Scout has to approach a house to sell cookies.

Since a Girl Scout cannot walk around your house to the back yard to the back door, neither can the police. Since a Girl Scout cannot come to your house in the middle of the night, neither can uninvited police. No peering through windows. No forcible entry. No hanging around without invitation from the occupant. No repeated trips back to harass the occupant. No surveillance devices. And, the occupant must have the right to refuse to talk, and to revoke the “implied license” for the police to remain and talk whenever he chooses.

The police have a tough enough job. Fuzzy rules of procedure not only jeopardizes the peoples’ liberties, but also law enforcement safety.

Gun owners must be especially vigilant where Fourth Amendment rights are concerned, because the threat of warrantless police sweeps to take guns from law-abiding citizens is not merely theoretical. Not long ago, Texas politician Beto O’Rourke boldly claimed: “Hell yes, we’re going to take your AR-15, your AK-47, and we’re not going to allow it to be used against your fellow Americans anymore.” And the anti-gunners seem to get far more militant every year. Thus, any weakening of the Fourth Amendment jeopardizes the Second Amendment.

GOA will always lead the fight to defend the “right to keep and bear arms,” as well as those other constitutional rights essential to protect guns, and that most definitely includes the Fourth Amendment.

John Velleco is the Executive Vice President of Gun Owners of America.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 16:20

Lavrov Warns Rubio: Get Diplomats & Americans Out Of Kiev Ahead Of 'Systematic Strikes'

Zero Hedge -

Lavrov Warns Rubio: Get Diplomats & Americans Out Of Kiev Ahead Of 'Systematic Strikes'

Russia has again warned Washington to evacuate embassy staff in Kiev as it prepares to launch "systematic strikes" against the Ukrainian capital, in apparent retribution for last week's deadly Ukrainian drone attack on a college dorm in Starobelsk, in Russian-controlled Luhansk Oblast.

It is further and more broadly warning all foreign persons to exit the Ukrainian capital, which has already been getting pounded at various intervals, stretching back days. Russia's foreign ministry slammed the college dorm attack, which killed and wounded dozens - the "last straw" and that the military will initiate "systematic strikes" on assorted targets across the Ukrainian capital from now on.

The statement condemned the Zelensky government, which "deliberately targets civilians and does not hesitate to murder children in cold blood" - and warned that serious escalation is imminent.

AFP/Getty Images

"This was the last straw. Under these circumstances, the Russian Armed Forces will be launching systematic strikes against the Ukrainian military-industrial complex in Kiev, including locations where UAVs are designed, manufactured, programmed, and prepared for use,” the ministry said.

The Russian military will no go after "decision-making centers and command posts" - the statement featured in state media continued.

In Kiev, city residents and bystanders must stay away from the "military and administrative infrastructure facilities of the Zelensky regime" - the statement additionally warned.

Most significantly, the Kremlin didn't just stop at this general public announcement, but directly notified the US State Department and Secretary of State Marco Rubio himself:

Russia said on Tuesday its government has warned U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to evacuate diplomats and American citizens from Kyiv, as Moscow plots fresh strikes on the Ukrainian capital.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov “officially informed” Washington that Russia would be launching “systematic and consistent strikes” against Ukrainian military facilities and what Moscow called “decision-making centers,” in a call with Rubio on Monday, according to the Russian government.  

...The call came after the Russian government issued a statement urging foreign citizens, diplomatic personnel, and international organizations to leave Kyiv, warning that it was preparing to target the capital, with a focus on facilities for designing, manufacturing, and programming drones.

At this moment, there's been little or nothing in the way of any official White House condemnation of the imminent new attacks on the Ukrainian capital.

The fact that Lavrov so bluntly informed his American counterpart is somewhat unprecedented, even after over four years of war. Russia seems to be stating ahead of time that if there's 'collateral damage' against foreign embassies or consulates, that it cannot be blamed. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 15:40

NYC Mayor Mamdani's Housing Plan Sparks Property-Rights Alarm Over Forced Transfers To Nonprofits

Zero Hedge -

NYC Mayor Mamdani's Housing Plan Sparks Property-Rights Alarm Over Forced Transfers To Nonprofits Mamdani Releases "Block by Block: The Housing Plan for A New Era"

NYC socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani released "Block by Block: The Housing Plan for a New Era," which presents a sweeping, deeply troubling blueprint to tackle the metro area's deepening housing crisis.

Mamdani told the crowd:

When necessary, we will take aggressive legal action to remove negligent owners and property managers. And for buildings that have suffered chronic neglect, we work to transfer ownership to responsible stewards. Stewards include community land trusts, nonprofits, or even the tenants themselves.

X user Difficult Froyo outlined what he described as the obvious playbook by the socialist mayor:

Rent control so landlords cannot raise rent to properly maintain the property. NYC takes the property and gives it to his political friends that donate to him. This is all going to be a theft scheme.

Another X user asked:

"Insane. If this isn't communism, I don't know what is. Has America really reached the point of communism?"

Mamdani's backdoor property-seizure strategy will likely spook lenders, insurers, and small landlords. That's because it caps landlord income, allows residential buildings to become distressed, then uses the city's enforcement to push properties into nonprofit, community land trust, or tenant ownership.

Via Inconigto... 

The carveout that Mamdani has to allow one-time rent hikes on certain vacant units already shows that Mamdani's team understands that a rent freeze creates financial stress for some affordable-housing owners. 

Ahead Of Speech: Mamdani To Carve Out Struggling NYC Landlords From Rent Freeze Experiment

NYC socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani is expected to announce on Tuesday that certain distressed landlords will be excluded from his proposed rent freeze, offering relief to apartment owners squeezed by debt, rising insurance costs, utilities, and repair bills in the increasingly unaffordable metro area.

Mamdani is expected to make the announcement at Powerhouse Arts in Gowanus, Brooklyn, where he will unveil a plan that would allow eligible owners of apartments financed or regulated by city housing agencies to impose a one-time rent increase on vacant units, even if a broader rent freeze is enacted later this year, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The 34-year-old socialist campaigned on the promise of free bus rides and government-run grocery stores, as well as freezing rents on the city's nearly one million rent-regulated apartments throughout his four-year term, which would offer relief to about 2.4 million residents.

The exemption could apply to roughly 300,000 apartments, about one-third of the city's rent-stabilized stock, though officials expect only hundreds of vacant units to use the rent-increase tool. The move reflects the political and financial pressure Mamdani faces after campaigning on a four-year rent freeze for roughly one million regulated apartments, a pledge that alarmed landlords already squeezed by debt, insurance, utilities, and repair costs.

This rent-freeze exemption will only apply to vacant apartments in the city that are already financed and regulated by the city's housing agencies. Rent increases will be limited by the income caps set by the city. -WSJ

WSJ noted that City Hall has also created a new $5 million loan program to help landlords cover tenants' overdue rent and avoid evictions.

The move comes just ahead of the nine-member Rent Guidelines Board, which is set to vote in June, supporting increases of 0% to 2% on one-year leases and 0% to 4% on two-year leases for rent-stabilized apartments.

The New York Times estimates the median rent-stabilized studio apartment goes for about $1,360 a month, and a two-bedroom rents for about $1,530. The median rent for a market-rate studio is north of $2,000, and for a two-bedroom it's about $2,200.

Last year, the Rent Guidelines Board approved increases of 3% for one-year leases and 4.5% for two-year leases, despite the housing affordability crisis in the metro area.

Related: 

These policies are part of Mamdani's long-awaited housing plan, which also includes new efforts to build multi-family buildings and expand tenant protections. He has laid out a goal of building 200,000 new residences.

"When communities don't build new housing, rents stay high, housing choice stays limited, and many New Yorkers are locked out of neighborhoods where their families can thrive," Mamdani's team wrote in a section of the new plan shared with POLITICO reporters ahead of the release.

Mamdani is trying to balance his pro-tenant rent-freeze campaign promise with the reality that parts of the city's affordable housing network are in financial shambles.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 15:20

Can Spencer Pratt Win?

Zero Hedge -

Can Spencer Pratt Win?

Authored by Mike McDaniel Via AmericanThinker.com,

The Los Angeles mayoral race provides illuminates Democrat party thinking.

There is non-politician, normal American Spencer Pratt running against Communist, Castro-admiring, current Mayor and black woman, Karen Bass, and Indian - the country - woman, and LA Council member, Nithya Raman.

Graphic: X Post

The only debate thus far was a self-inflicted disaster for Bass and Raman, and Bass is refusing to debate again. Asked--yes or no—whether illegal aliens should vote, Pratt answered “no,” and Bass and Raman, looking like cockroaches caught in the open when the kitchen lights came on, sputtered versions of: “well, it depends…” Pratt is the law and order, clean out the insanely violent homeless, no disease-infested discarded needles, no human feces everywhere, sane, fiscally responsible candidate. Bass and Raman are California democrats, which is to say the opposite of Pratt and sane Californians, many of whom have already fled to red states, leaving only people likely to vote for Bass, the woman who can’t imagine any need for rational anti-wildfire policies, like keeping reservoirs filled with water.

In a rational state—California is currently on fire again—Pratt should be a shoo-in.

His political ads are brilliant, influencing future ads. He’s out-fundraising Bass, but this is California.

Kurt Schlichter is a high-powered lawyer, retired army officer, and best-selling author who still lives in California. He grew up there and lived the California dream, seeing California in its glory days when anything was possible. He remains because he’s one of the well-off elite able to weather California’s current, unlivable horrors. And, most importantly, he doesn’t live in LA:  

Nope, Los Angeles is not my problem, and I’m not going to give it another moment of thought. If it wants to drown in a cesspool of hobo dung, it can dive in. Spencer Pratt is absolutely right about everything he says, from the fires to the junkies to the gross incompetence.

Moreover, everybody knows it’s true. But nobody cares. You need to understand something. This isn’t about competence.

When Karen Bass, a black communist mental defective, looks baffled at Spencer Pratt explaining how she’s helped run Los Angeles into the ground, that look of confusion is not because she’s stupid. She is, but it’s because he’s speaking a different language. She’s a literal communist. She’s gone to Cuba and taken notes. Her purpose isn’t to create prosperity and security for the people of Los Angeles. Her purpose, like that of all communists, is to secure power. The same is true of her bizarre, real competitor, some South Asian communist named Nithya Raman.

As is endemic to the Third World, they fetishize power; these Marxists want control. That’s it. It’s not about filling in potholes. It’s not about safe streets. It’s not even about keeping half the city from going up in flames. It’s about control. There is no bottom to Los Angeles. It’s not going to get so bad that people are going to generate some sort of backlash, no matter how clever Spencer Pratt’s ads are, and they are clever. Those ads are only scoring with those of us on the outside. They give us false hope that something can be done. But nothing can be done. The decline is not the point. It’s literally irrelevant to them.

Take Detroit, once also a rich and powerful city. Do you think that at some point, the leftists who control it looked at it and said, “Wow, we have become Detroit. Yikes! Should we try something else”? No. The dysfunction is the function; the squalor doesn’t matter to them. Not at all.

California has the nation’s highest unemployment and the largest illegal population. When its rampant fraud is investigated, it will surely be number one in the nation in that dubious distinction. The streets and freeways are crumbling, crime is out of control, and never-to-be-finished boondoggles like the high-speed rail to nowhere that no one wants, needs or will ride, and an animal and Monarch Butterfly(?) wildlife bridge despoil the landscape.

Schlichter goes on to explain that the remaining Californians will vote for Bass again because they’re Californians and Democrats.

They can’t help themselves:

What’s it going to take to fix Los Angeles, California, and the rest of the blue hellholes?

Gosh, you don’t want to ask that. You’re not going to like the answer.

They will never fix themselves. Never. All the normal people are gone.

You’ve got a few rich leftists and a bunch of welfare cheats, and that’s it. It’s going to take something from the outside to fix them. It would have to be imposed upon them and not gently

That’s not happening anytime soon—if ever.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 14:20

Private Equity To Be Blocked From Buying Homes?

Zero Hedge -

Private Equity To Be Blocked From Buying Homes?

Authored by Matt Stoller via BIG,

Based on a vote last week, it seems very likely Congress will ban corporate ownership of most existing single family homes. "People live in homes," said Trump in January. "Not corporations." While Trump has sometimes talked a big game on constraining Wall Street, he generally hasn't followed through. In this case, though, he did. And somehow, a very corporate-friendly legislature came through as well.

It's almost impossible to believe, but here's the relevant provision in the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act that passed the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday, by a 396-13 margin.

And here's the White House's statement supporting the bill.

As called for during the State of the Union, this legislation includes the President's signature priority: banning large institutional investor purchases of single-family homes. Section 1001 delivers a framework that addresses Wall Street's dominance in the single family housing market and protects Main Street homebuyers.

And the House followed the Senate, which in March passed an even more stringent ban, led by Senator Elizabeth Warren. There are some important caveats here, which I'll go into. But it's still a remarkable accomplishment, and a shockingly weird Warren-Trump alliance, that no one would have predicted a year ago.

So what happened?

I wrote up the full account two months ago, when the Senate acted. The short story is that voters were mad about high housing costs in 2024, and voted against the Democrats as a result. In January, Trump realized voters were now mad at him for high housing costs. And so he wanted to do something. But what could he do? He was trying to impose his will on the Federal Reserve, which could lower rates for homeowners. But that wasn't working out because he couldn't get the Supreme Court or the Senate to go along.

And beyond that, mortgage rates aren't the only driver of costs. So what hiking housing prices? There is a split in both parties over that question. One theory comes from a group of Wall Street-friendly liberals and libertarians, known as the "Abundance movement," who argue the problem is that we're not friendly enough to capital, and the solution is to remove zoning limitations. Yet despite the removal of many such limitations in states like California, there hasn't been a spurt of homebuilding.

A different theory comes from anti-monopolists, who believe that the consolidation of financing power and homebuilding capacity led to supply restrictions. That group argued that Wall Street cash was pouring into single family housing as an asset class, driving up prices for ordinary people. And those buyers, as corporate landlords, didn't serve renters particularly well. There is substantial evidence behind this theory.

Institutional ownership is regionally concentrated, with investors buying up properties in particular cities. In Atlanta, for instance, large institutional investors have dominant shares of the market…

In 2024, the Federal Trade Commission under Lina Khan found that Invitation Homes, a spinoff of Blackstone, had engaged in rampant misbehavior. The CEO told one of his subordinates to “juice this hog” and they did so by deceiving renters, unfairly evicting people, charging junk fees, and so forth…

Congressional documents showed that “renters in institutionally-owned SFR homes often experience higher rent increases, inflated fees, and diminishing quality of housing over time.” And Federal Reserve economists wrote a paper observing that such investors “raise rents at 60 percent higher rates than the average increase when first acquiring the property,” and that rents overall go up.

Big builders are now working with Wall Street to construct single family homes that never go on the market, but instead are rented out from the beginning. This "Build to Rent" sector took off, doubling in market share from 2021-2024. And it is now where institutional capital is focused. Build to Rent allows Wall Street to augment an asset class, and it enables control of housing supply to keep prices up.

Trump usually has an intuitive understanding of where voters are, even if he often chooses other priorities. And on housing, he got that the public is quite populist. Here’s the New York Times’s latest poll, showing that Democrats by a more than two to one margin blame corporate monopolies over supply restrictions for the price of homes and energy. It’s likely not that different among independents or the GOP.

Trump issued an executive order and a Truth Social post on the need to ban corporate ownership of housing. He even criticized the big homebuilders, saying they were “sitting on 2 Million empty lots, a RECORD.” And he called them similar to the oil cartel OPEC. Here’s what Trump said in his order, and honestly, it would be hard for me to write it any better.

A growing share of single-family homes, often concentrated in certain communities, have been purchased by large Wall Street investors, crowding out families seeking to buy homes. Hardworking young families cannot effectively compete for starter homes with Wall Street firms and their vast resources. Neighborhoods and communities once controlled by middle-class American families are now run by faraway corporate interests. People live in homes, not corporations. My Administration will take decisive action to stop Wall Street from treating America's neighborhoods like a trading floor and empower American families to own their homes.

This policy decision by Trump synced up with a bill that Republican Senator Tim Scott and Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren had prepared in the Banking Committee to lower housing costs back in July of last year. Their goal was to improve supply, by doing things like encouraging more manufactured housing, speeding up zoning, and providing more public money for homebuilding and cities.

When Trump chimed in with his views, Scott and Warren then included a provision to ban large institutional investors from owning single family homes, setting a limit of 350 homes per investor. They also imposed significant limits on the "Build to Rent" sector. The Scott/Warren bill passed 89-10, an overwhelming majority.

The fly in the ointment was the House of Representatives, notably the Republican Chair of the Financial Services Committee, French Hill. Private equity was pouring in money to help Hill. His goal was to force the Senate to sit down and negotiate something different, removing the institutional ownership caps.

The big question was whether the White House would be able and willing to jam Hill, and force the House to accept the Senate package. It was possible. Trump himself was not particularly focused on housing, as the Iran War, AI, the ballroom, the Federal Reserve and his lawsuit with the IRS were taking up his attention. But if the House Democrats were on board, then the White House could likely swing enough Republican votes to push the Senate bill through.

And that seemed to be doable, even likely. Private equity, especially buying housing, is politically toxic. And the House Democratic lead on the Financial Services Committee is an 87-year old Congresswoman named Maxine Waters, who has traditionally been an assertive liberal icon. So you'd think she'd be supportive, and could cap her long political career with a powerful bill making sure that the American home would be owned by American families.

But Waters, like so many of her generation, just doesn't want to give up power. She's controversial, she's not a good fundraiser, and Democrats are starting to attack the very old leaders who run committees. So instead of shepherding this bill through, she decided to go full pro-industry, and join Hill in opposing the provisions in the bill that would ban corporate ownership. The House majority leader, Hakeem Jeffries, backed her decision, as did much of the "Abundance" world of advocates. The House draft removed the homeownership provisions entirely.

Trump, Warren, and Scott continued to push, and finally they cut a deal with the House. The ban would stay for existing housing stock, but it would not apply if private equity built new housing, aka the "Build to Rent" sector. Corporations that own and rent single family homes would not be forced to sell them, and they can build new ones. But the existing stock of owner-occupied single family homes, roughly 70 million of them, effectively cannot be bought by big business.

There are still some aspects of the bill being negotiated, but in terms of the housing provisions, something akin to what passed the House is likely to be signed into law later this summer. And the legislation, imperfect as it is, will be the most significant housing legislation in decades, and will prevent the acquisition of the existing U.S. housing stock by Wall Street. It will be left to future lawmakers to find ways of letting renters buy out their Build to Rent homes, or further push back institutional capital from owning other parts of the American home. And single family housing isn't enough of a target, one in eight apartments is now owned by private equity.

Still, with this political setup, in this moment, it's a remarkable accomplishment. In some ways, this kind of legislation may have a parallel to Jimmy Carter's deregulatory zeal. Carter wanted to undo FDR's legacy, and fought hard, with a Democratic Congress, to get rid of public utility rules on airlines, banks, telecommunications providers, trucks, and railroads. Torn between the Democratic Party's allegiance to labor and his desire to break that alliance, he was deeply unpopular. But his deregulatory policies stuck. His successor, Ronald Reagan, built on Carter's approach, and it is Reagan, not Carter, who is known as the President that undid the New Deal.

Trump, like Carter, is a fish out of water. Trump's party is not populist, and mostly he has doubled down on support for Wall Street and war. But there are some indications, like this housing bill, that show it's the end for an entire way of doing business. Since Reagan, American policymakers have been aggressive in ensuring that capital can do whatever it seeks in getting the highest return, and the government has sought to turn whatever it can - our houses, our attention, our pain, sports betting - into an asset class for finance. Trump won't end that, just as Carter didn't end the New Deal. But his successor might.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 13:40

Mediocre 2Y Auction Prices At Highest Yield Since Feb 2025

Zero Hedge -

Mediocre 2Y Auction Prices At Highest Yield Since Feb 2025

With Treasury yields sliding 4 days in a row, today's 2Y auction was not seen as especially concerning (certainly not as much as a week ago, when the 10Y was knocking on 4.70%'s door, vs 4.50% where it trades today). Still, while the auction did have it strong sides, it was hardly stellar.

Starting at the top, the $69BN sale of 2Y paper priced at a high yield of 4.071%, up 26bps from 3.812% a month ago, and the highest since Feb 2025. The auction also priced on the screws with the When Issued 4.071%, following three straight tailing auctions, so a modest improvement there.

The bid to cover was 2.640, which was down modestly from 2.653 a month ago, but above the 2.62 six-auction average.

The internals were in line: Indirects (aka foreign buyers) took down 57.6%, up from 56.48% a month ago but below the 57.9% recent average; and with Directs almost flat at 30.1% (down from 31.65% in April, and above the 29.3% recent average), Dealers were left holding 12.30%, up from 11.87% a month ago and just below the 6-auction average of 12.84%.

Overall, this was a forgettable auction with mediocre stats and internals. Then again, with the market trading treasuries and oil as one asset class today (while stocks do their own thing again), and sending sharply much lower on hopes that this time the Iran deal is definitely imminent (unlike all the previous times), it's not like anyone was paying attention to bond market internals today... or frankly anything else for that matter.

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 13:27

Strait Talk

Zero Hedge -

Strait Talk

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Strait Talk

Despite many false dawns, markets remain upbeat on prospects for peace between the United States and Iran. Secretary of State Rubio indicated that the US side had thought it would have something to announce on Sunday night, or “maybe today” given that the Sunday deadline has now passed, and it is actually Tuesday. Striking a more cautionary tone, Iranian President Pezeshkian said of prospects that a deal would be made within the day that “nobody could make such a claim”, while President Trump had earlier said that he had urged his representatives not to rush negotiations.

US markets were closed yesterday, but Asian and European equities finished broadly higher with notable gains seen in Japan’s Nikkei (+2.87%), Taiwan’s TAIEX (+3.26%) and the Euro Stoxx 50 (+1.95%). The July Brent crude future tumbled 7.15% to close at $96.14/bbl while WTI traded below $90/bbl before closing the day at $90.88. Bonds were bid across the curve with moves at the short end being especially pronounced.

Al Arabiya reports that it has obtained a copy of the draft memorandum of understanding that reportedly has the support of both sides. Provision of the MOU are said to include:

  • Extension of the ceasefire for 60 days
  • ŸReopening the Strait of Hormuz to international navigation, guaranteeing free passage of commercial vessels and oil tankers without additional transit fees, with the Iranian side committing to take the necessary technical and security measures to ensure safety of navigation, including the removal of mines.
  • ŸEnabling Iran to resume sale and export of oil.
  • ŸContinuation of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program with the aim of reaching a long-term understanding.
  • ŸUS to ease restrictions on Iranian ports and grant specific sanctions waivers for Iran.
  • ŸEnding military operations on all regional fronts, including Lebanon.
  • ŸFreedom of navigation to be restored in Hormuz over a period of 30 days, with maritime traffic set to return to pre-war levels by the end of the 30 day period.
  • ŸNuclear issues to be negotiated over 60 days.
  • ŸSome Iranian frozen assets to be released during the first phase of implementation.

This looks very like an oil-for-oil agreement, but notably excludes any mention of Iran’s missile program or regional proxies, and kicks the contentious nuclear issue into the long grass to be negotiated over the next two months. Considering that Iran’s nuclear program was core to the rationale for the war in the first place, market participants might direct some thought toward what could happen if agreement cannot be reached on that elusive point.

President Trump said this morning that “The Enriched Uranium will either be immediately turned over to the United States to be brought home and destroyed or, preferably, in conjunction and coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran, destroyed in place or, at another acceptable location...” An Iranian response to this claim is not yet forthcoming.

Muddying the waters further, news broke this morning that US forces had carried out strikes against two IRGC ships. A CENTCOM spokesman said that the strikes were defensive, and in response to the ships attempting to lay mines in the Strait – which would certainly run counter to the spirit of the provision for Iran to remove mines that has supposedly been agreed. Iran retaliated by reportedly targeting US planes with surface-to-air missiles, eliciting strikes from the US on missile launchers near Bandar Abbas. Despite the tit-for-tat, US sources say that the ceasefire remains in effect.

Similarly, MOU provisions for ending regional war in Lebanon face strains as Israeli PM Netanyahu says that his armed forces will intensify strikes against Hezbollah to “deal them a crushing blow.” There is also likely to be daylight between the US and Israeli positions on Iran’s nuclear program, as the US appears to be prioritising the re-opening of Hormuz through an oil-for-oil arrangement while Israel views Iranian nuclear enrichment as an existential issue. Netanyahu has previously indicated that Israel reserves freedom to act directly against the Iranian nuclear program and has faced criticism from Opposition Leader Yair Lapid for failing to influence the Americans on this point.

For Trump’s part, peace with Iran is very much being tied to progress on the Abraham Accords that seek to normalize relations between Israel and US-aligned Arab states in the Gulf and elsewhere. Progressing the Abraham Accords would allow the US to make a geopolitical silk purse from the sow’s ear of a closed Strait of Hormuz. Already the importance of this has been demonstrated through the UAE’s (a current signatory) decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ after having been granted US dollar swaplines and Israeli military aid.

Trump took to Truth Social to say that he is “mandatorily requesting” that all countries in the region sign the Accords, calling out Saudi Arabia and Qatar specifically and saying that failure to do so would show “bad intention” and should preclude those countries from benefiting from a peace deal. Clearly things are moving very fast but, as we have been flagging for some time now, there is potential for a world on the other side of this crisis where oil flows West, priced in dollars, with its security underwritten by the US navy, and Hormuz gradually becomes less important as a maritime chokepoint.

While issues in the Gulf continue to steal headlines, there are also major developments in the Ukraine War. Russia has reportedly warned Washington to evacuate embassy staff in Kiev as it prepares to launch “systematic strikes” against the Ukrainian capital. This follows confirmation from Russia on Sunday that it had used a nuclear-capable hypersonic ballistic missile against Ukrainian targets for the third time in the war.

The Russian Ministry of Defence said that the strikes will be a response to a Ukrainian drone attack against a student dormitory building in Starobilsk that killed at least 18 people and injured dozens of others. The BBC reports comments from honorary chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy, Sergey Karaganov, who reportedly said “we need to start punishing Europe for things like this, including with strikes. Symbolic to start with. Then, perhaps, less symbolic.”

Clearly, hoped-for progress in the Strait notwithstanding, geopolitical risk is here to stay and it isn’t necessarily all ‘in the price’.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 13:00

Iran Vows 'Swift, Decisive' Revenge After Overnight US Port Attack, As Sides Seek Deal Allowing Each To 'Sell Their Narrative'

Zero Hedge -

Iran Vows 'Swift, Decisive' Revenge After Overnight US Port Attack, As Sides Seek Deal Allowing Each To 'Sell Their Narrative' Summary
  • CENTCOM denies that US Navy has officially restarted guiding ships through Hormuz Strait amid fresh tanker explosion and fuel leak incident.
  • IRGC says its military shot down an MQ-9 drone and forced an F-35 jet out of Iranian airspace.
  • Tehran formally accuses Washington of "ceasefire violation" while warning a final deal is not yet imminent, while Pentagon cites "self-defense" strikes in Hormuz overnight.
  • Ayatollah Hajj message: US will "no longer have a safe haven for mischief & the establishment of military bases in the region."
  • Teran is demanding "12 billion released now and 12 billion after MOU 30 days runs out to open Hormuz."
//--> //--> //--> Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Yes 24% · No 77%
View full market & trade on Polymarket


*  *  *

Trump Again Attacks US Media Over Iran War Coverage

In a fresh Truth Social post, Trump even bashes the Wall Street Journal, which ironically enough has by and large defended Trump and seems 'pro-' Iran war in terms of their general op-ed stance and coverage...

CENTCOM Denies WSJ Report

"Project Freedom has not resumed, and U.S. forces are not currently escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz," US Central Command says in a post on X. This comes after WSJ cited US officials to say that that the mission had restarted, but that reporting appeared premature.

Meanwhile on the negotiations front, an insightful line:

Abdulla Banndar Al-Etaibi, a professor at Qatar University, says any negotiation between Iran and the US requires concessions from both parties to secure a deal.

“This is the hard part,” he told Al Jazeera, noting that both Tehran and Washington have realised that they can’t reach their goals through war. “That’s why they’re [moving] towards more diplomacy.”

“At the moment, it’s about the language, and it’s about how both parties can come out and sell a narrative that they want,” Al-Etaibi added.

'Project Freedom' Officially Back On

While it's questionable to what degree US naval patrols of regional waters ever really stopped, US military officials say the navy has restarted escorts to ensure international vessels can safely cross through the contested Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon is already touting some successes, according to a Tuesday update in the WSJ:

The officials told The Wall Street Journal that a Greek supertanker laden with two million barrels of crude was guided by the U.S. Navy, as it crossed the waterway off the Omani coast.

The ship was stuck in the Middle East Gulf since early March and is now heading to India to deliver its cargo.

The protection is a renewed push of "Project Freedom," an earlier U.S. initiative to guide ships through the vital shipping corridor that was halted roughly 36 hours into the operation.

The officials said the Navy plans to help about a dozen vessels including supertankers and container ships to cross through the waterway over the coming days.

However, some serious security incidents involving shipping (possibly involving sea mines?) in the narrow waterway are still unfolding, also with reports of a fuel leakage incident into Gulf coastal waters:

Despite all of these developments, and rising tensions and even last night's US-Israel brief airstrike raid on Bandar Abbas port, the Trump administration is still touting that a final draft deal is just 'days' away. "I think there is strong alignment and agreement on what a preliminary draft should look like," Rubio has said in fresh comments. "It's either going to be a good deal or there isn't going to be one." Tehran has vowing retaliation for the overnight US attack incident.

Israeli leaders are meanwhile vowing they'll prevent a 'bad deal' from being finalized...

F-35 Engagement, MQ-9 Shootdown

While diplomats in Washington and Tehran exchange heavily caveated peace drafts and attempt a breakthrough, the actual conflict theater of the Persian Gulf is telling an entirely different story. The fragile reality of the current ceasefire is on full display, given that after late Monday's US-Israeli action against Iranian vessels at Bandar Abbas port, the IRGC says it opened fire on a US F-35 fighter jet and multiple unmanned aerial vehicles after they allegedly breached Iranian airspace. As part of the engagement, Iran says that it shot down a US MQ-9 drone (not for the first time of the war). The IRGC claims its air defense units successfully "shot down an MQ-9" Reaper drone during the encounter, while the remaining American "aircraft were forced to flee."

This followed immediately on the heels of the United States saying carried out "self-defense" strikes in southern Iran overnight against various targets, including boats attempting to lay mines as well as even missile launch sites. "US forces conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran today to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces," US Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesperson Capt. Tim Hawkins said.

Ceasefire Violation

Tehran has warned that the the ceasefire with the US is in jeopardy, with the Foreign Ministry on Tuesday having condemned the latest US "attacks on vessels as a ceasefire violation".

Iran's Foreign Ministry condemns "multiple instances of maritime piracy against Iranian commercial vessels" by the US in the Hormozgan region over the past 48 hours, according to statement. "Hormozgan is the Iranian province that incorporates Iranian ports and waters on the Strait of Hormuz," it said according to Bloomberg, citing state media, in reference to the province which has Bandar Abbas as its capital. Iran "will not leave any acts of wickedness unanswered and will not hesitate in the slightest to defend the sovereignty and territory of Iran," it said. 

Prior Planet Labs image of Destruction at Bandar-Abbas amid Operation Epic Fury

Some analysis of what may be behind this latest direct fire flare-up:

"Given where the strikes actually targeted – this is right next to where Iran would want to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz," Puri told Al Jazeera. "One interpretation of these strikes … is that it is actually the US military demonstrating that Iran will not be able to mass forces exactly at the Strait of Hormuz itself if they want to institutionalize a toll collection and inspection regime and other things."

"Both sides are signaling intent and capability and commitment during these negotiations, and they’re using actions as well as words. Sometimes they’re using actions in place of words," he added.

Ayatollah's New Threat Against US Bases

Following the engagement, an IRGC military spokesperson issued a blunt warning to Washington against future ceasefire violations, declaring that any new aggression against sovereign territory would be met with a "far more severe" response that would structurally extend "beyond the region."

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has been in hiding, released a fiery written address via his Telegram channel to mark the Islamic Hajj pilgrimage. In the message he put American bases scattered throughout neighboring Gulf nations on notice, declaring that the US will "no longer have a safe haven for mischief and the establishment of military bases in the region."

Khamenei warned regional Arab capitals that playing host to the Pentagon carries with it certain risks. "The nations and lands of the region will no longer be a shield for American bases," Khamenei wrote in the message, even while extending an apparent olive branch of sorts immediate neighbors: "I sincerely and purely invite all Islamic countries and governments to friendship and cooperation."

Meanwhile some latest from Rubio...

Marking the Hajj, the annual Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca, his message included as follows:

Iranian leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a message on May 26 calling for greater unity across the Muslim world against the United States and Israel, saying that the chants "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" will become the rallying slogans of Muslims and "the oppressed of the world."

Deal Status & $12 Billion Confidence-Building Measure

According to reported leaks detailing the active Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) layout, Tehran's compliance hinges on a strict, phased cash release. A source familiar with the text confirmed that Teran is demanding "12BN released now and 12BN after MOU 30 days runs out to open Hormuz." If Washington refuses to front the initial tranche, the mining operations and blockade in the Strait will remain active. The initial funds release has been described by Iranian officials as a confidence-building measure to move things along toward a final agreement.

The Islamic Republic is further seeking to remind the world that a deal is being pushed forward, but it is not imminent:

An Iranian official says that while "there is no toll" on the Strait of Hormuz, the regime is working to regulate the waterway and that ships wishing to cross will likely be required to make some form of payment.

At a press briefing in Tehran attended by the ABC, the regime issued its first direct response to statements from the United States over the weekend, suggesting a deal to end the war was close and would include opening the Strait of Hormuz. 

Iran did say a framework to end the war with the US had been reached, but warned an agreement was not imminent, and its nuclear program was not part of the negotiations. 

Lebanon Unravels

In Lebanon, the National News Agency reported at least 12 civilians were killed during a devastating overnight Israeli strike on the town of Mashghara. Concurrently, Israel’s military has issued a sweeping, forced displacement directive for Nabatieh - a city of 80,000 residents - ordering them to clear out north of the Zahrani River.

On Monday Netanyahu made clear that he had ordered a dramatic expanse of the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Evacuation orders are once again being issued for southern suburbs of Beirut, portending a return to all-out expanded war in the country, also as Hezbollah drones are being sent on northern Israel.

Status of Talks Through the Weekend

via Newsquawk...

  • Over the weekend, US President Trump posted that an agreement has largely been negotiated, subject to finalisation between the US, Iran and various Middle Eastern countries, while the final aspects and details of the deal were being discussed, and will be announced shortly.
  • He followed up by stating that negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, while he informed representatives not to rush into a deal and that time is on their side.
  • Reuters reported that the proposed framework is broken into three stages: 1) formally ending the war, 2) reopening the Strait of Hormuz and 3) opening an extendable 30-day window for broader negotiations on nuclear issues and sanctions relief.
  • Axios further reported, citing a US official, that an agreement would involve a 60-day ceasefire extension during which the Strait of Hormuz would be opened, Iran would be able to freely sell oil, and negotiations would be held on curbing Iran's nuclear programme.
  • However, a US senior official told Axios that the White House doesn’t expect an agreement to end the war with Iran on Sunday and believes it could take several days for the deal’s approval by Iran’s leadership.
  • Elsewhere, Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi travelled to Doha for talks with Qatar's PM.
Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 12:50

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