The US Must Be Confident It Has A Plan In Place To Lower Oil Prices Once It Strikes Iran

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Lots Of Xs Vs Lots Of Ys

US vs. Iran: The media today talk of a “90% chance of war” and “as soon as Saturday.” We’ve long stressed there’s a high likelihood of a fresh US-Iran conflict, recent US logistics movements said soon, and an Axios headline yesterday refocused oil markets on it. The balance of risks now tilts to a US strike after market close Friday, even if the materiel moved to the Middle East suggests any attack is likely to last weeks rather than being over by the Monday open. One caveat is Secretary of State Rubio is set to meet with PM Netanyahu in Israel on February 28, hard to achieve if missiles are flying. Yet Israel is preparing for exactly that. Indeed, expectations are Iran will retaliate across the region, potentially via terror cells in the West (including in Europe), and perhaps in Hormuz directly if the regime sees itself as at risk. The broader region is flammable too, with tensions running: Egypt vs Ethiopia vs Eritrea; Somalia vs Somaliland; Sudan vs South Sudan; Yemen vs South Yemen; and the Saudis (and Turkey and nuclear-armed Pakistan) vs the UAE (and Israel and nuclear-armed India).

To say that this could be market- and geopolitics-moving is an understatement. Oil, and presumably LNG, prices would spike. How quickly they come down would depend on exactly how this plays out. The US must be confident that it has a plan in place to mitigate these kinds of risks. It certainly did, in a much less risky environment, in Venezuela.

The Fed: The latest minutes were significantly more hawkish than expected. Indeed, the Bloomberg take, accurate or not, is that several members may be leaning towards rate hikes not rates cuts. Given we are months away from the appointment of a new Fed Chair who wants to see the latter, that sets the Eccles Building up for some serious conflict ahead. Indeed, note the colliding views on what the AI revolution means for the US economy. Warsh, based on some optimistic thinking, says it means lower rates; Barr and Daly, based on surrealistic thinking, say it means higher rates. Our US strategist is sticking with 3 cuts this year for now, starting from June (see here).

The ECB: President Lagarde is going to step down early, setting off a scramble for succession. Our ECB team do an excellent job of working through the labyrinth of Byzantine European monetary politics in this report. In a nutshell, it’s not so much about policy preference, or protecting the ECB from the pollutant of political populism, nor about the presidency per se; rather, it’s potentially perpetuating an ECB executive board seat for France. And what would any key European decision be without France trying to do that? C’est la guerre, c’est Lagarde. (And does she have a better gig lined up? The whisper had been Davos leadership, but post-Trump’s stomp on it, is that still a step up?)

The RBA vs. the government: Strong wages growth and jobs data keep the pressure on the Reserve Bank. Private sector wages were +3.4% y-o-y in Q4 and public sector +4%. Jobs growth in January was 17.8K, broadly in line with expectations, but with a surge in full-time employment of over 50K, while unemployment fell a tick to a near-historic low of 4.1%. Yes, there are questions about data quality, population growth, and AI, even if Australia is hardly at the cutting edge in that key area. But what excuses can the RBA keep finding not to be hawkish, even if that eventually sets up a collision with the housing market? There’s already one underway between former RBA Governor Lowe and the government, the former saying the latter needs to stop spending to get rates down again, the latter saying that’s just a personal vendetta.  

The BOE: Reform Party not-Shadow Chancellor Jenrick pledged to retain BOE independence and the Office for Budget Responsibility, while…. drum roll… reforming both. The BOE will be stripped of political goals and a climate mandate, with a focus purely on inflation: QE was mentioned as a bad thing. The OBR is to change its models, with competitions to see which forecaster is most accurate in calling growth and the budget deficit right (as if it’s the salary that makes forecasting hard). He also spoke of making The City a ‘crypto leader’… but is that in Bitcoin, dollar stablecoins, or Euro or sterling ones? Expect major collisions on that front both between legacy banking and crypto, and between crypto players… albeit only from 2029 onwards, barring a political shock.

France vs Germany: Aside from ECB politics, Chancellor Merz has just said that the Eurofighter project that was supposed to be built between France and Germany ‘fails to meet Germany’s needs’. That follows similar recent spats over protectionism and trade deals. More broadly, as Germany rearms, adding military muscle to its existing, if shrinking, economic heft, Franco-German tensions are only going to increase on multiple fronts, forging new intra-EU alliances to emerge.

Canada vs the US: ‘Carney offers to ‘broker a bridge’ to build giant anti-Trump trade club’ - joining the EU with the CPTPP’s Canada, Mexico, the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, and other Pacific nations. Really? Mexico is deepening trade integration with the US behind a de facto common external tariff. The UK is trying to get back in with the EU via dynamic regulatory alignment, but the benefits are likely to be low given businesses know Reform could win the next election and reverse it. Japan is all in on the US. Australia is close to an FTA with the EU, NZ has one, and both rely entirely on the US security umbrella. The smaller Asian economies are linked to China, with US trade deals not allowing transshipment. And almost all those countries want to net export to the US. With USMCA renegotiation months away, does Canada think this is leverage when the US holds the best cards?

Green vs not green: ‘US pressures global energy body to drop net zero modeling’. “US Energy Secretary Chris Wright made the call to other energy ministers at a closed-door ministerial meeting of the International Energy Agency in Paris on Wednesday, two people who were part of the discussions told POLITICO. The comments met with a muted response from other ministers, the people said…. It comes just a day after Wright publicly threatened to quit the organization unless it abandoned its focus on the energy transition… Wright said the agency should stop basing its modeling on assumptions that it's possible to cut emissions to zero, arguing such targets will never be met… Doing away with those baseline assumptions would be a significant shift for the IEA, which has made them central to forecasts that have in turn formed the basis of global political decision-making around the green transition and underpinned billions in green energy investments.”

Free speech vs hate speech: Welcome to glasnost, reverse-Gorbachev style. Reuters reports the Trump admin is to set up a website, Freedom.org, as a portal which everyone globally can use to access whatever information or apps that they want, regardless of what their own governments won’t let them see for various reasons. This would apparently operate via a permanent VPN. Obviously, this is going to cause tensions with the likes of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea… and Australia, the UK, and much of Europe. (Many readers will nod at immediately: but stop for a moment and think just how bizarre that would have read 10 years ago.)

Young vs. Old: ‘Over 65? Congratulations, You Own the Economy’. As the Wall Street Journal puts it, “The elderly are physically and financially healthier than ever. So why do their needs keep taking priority over younger generations?”

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 10:15

US Pending Home Sales Hit Record Low Despite Falling Mortgage Rates

After plunging in December (biggest drop since COVID), US Pending Home Sales disappointed once again with a modest 0.8% MoM decline in January (+2.0% MoM exp). This left sales down 1.23% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

This left the Pending Home Sales Index at a record low...

Source: Bloomberg

Mortgage rates continued to slide... so WTF is holding buyers back?

Source: Bloomberg

“Improving affordability conditions have yet to induce more buying activity,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

Yun cautioned that the mix of lower mortgage rates and a still-tight supply of houses could cause home prices to start rising quickly again, assuming the lower borrowing costs encourage more buyers.

“This will put increasing pressure on affordability, which is why it is critical to increase supply by building more homes,” Yun said.

Weather could have impacted sales as sales were weakest in the NorthEast and South - where the winter storm was most impactful.

Pending-homes sales tend to be a leading indicator for previously owned homes, as houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 10:10

PJM Board Approves $11.8BN Transmission Expansion Plan

By Ethan Howland Of UtilityDive

The PJM Interconnection’s board last week approved $11.8 billion in baseline transmission projects, with Dominion Energy’s Virginia utility landing roughly $4.8 billion in those projects.

The projects are part of PJM’s 2025 Regional Transmission Expansion Plan Window 1, which is designed to bolster grid reliability that is strained by accelerated load growth in multiple areas across its Mid-Atlantic and Midwest footprint.

The projects are also needed to handle new generation in southern Virginia, future generation in western PJM, delays to New Jersey offshore wind projects and increased regional flows toward the eastern parts of PJM’s footprint, the grid operator said Friday.

PJM will monitor load and generation in its footprint to make sure needed transmission development is progressing in a timely manner, the grid operator said in its board-approved plan.

DataBank’s IAD4 data center under construction in Ashburn, Va

“PJM also clarified that siting, routing and regulatory processes, as well as construction, take a long time, and PJM needs the plan to be ready and advanced for the forecasted conditions proactively rather than bringing needed development late, which introduces impediments to development and reliability risks to stakeholders,” the grid operator said.

Meanwhile, transmission costs are making up a growing share of the price of wholesale electricity in PJM.

In 2024, transmission contributed $17.71/MWh to the cost of wholesale power in PJM, up 23%, or 5.8% a year, from $14.40/MWh in 2022, according to reports from Monitoring Analytics, PJM’s market monitor.

Transmission costs totaled $13.9 billion, or 32% of total wholesale costs of $43.6 billion, in 2024, the last full year of Monitoring Analytics’ reporting. Energy costs made up nearly 59% of the cost of wholesale power that year and capacity accounted for 6.6% of the total.

As part of PJM’s transmission expansion plan, Dominion Energy Virginia intends to build a $2.3-billion, 525-kV underground “backbone” transmission line in Virginia. The project, set to be online by June 2032, also calls for building two high-voltage direct current converter stations at each end of the 185-mile line for about $1.5 billion.

The project is designed to deliver 3,000 MW into Loudoun County in northern Virginia, the area with the most data center capacity in the world.

Like other multi-zone projects in the RTEP, the costs of the project will be shared across PJM’s footprint.

The just-approved plan also includes a $1.7-billion transmission line across central Pennsylvania proposed by NextEra Energy Transmission and Exelon. The project was opposed by Pennsylvania’s Office of Consumer Advocate, which argued that there were less expensive alternatives to the project.

The project addresses system-wide, structural reliability needs in PJM’s northeastern region that cannot be met with incremental upgrades or “terminal-only” solutions, NextEra and Exelon said in a Jan. 29 letter to PJM’s board.

“PJM’s own analyses and the convergence of independent developer proposals, demonstrates that new high-voltage backbone infrastructure is required to maintain reliable service under plausible future conditions,” the companies said. The project is slated to be operating by June 2031.

The transmission plan includes a $1.1 billion project in central Ohio proposed by Grid Growth Ventures, a joint venture between Transource Energy — a partnership between American Electric Power and Evergy — and FirstEnergy Transmission. The project includes 300 miles of 765-kV lines.

Under the plan, PPL Electric will build transmission projects totaling about $580 million, while Exelon subsidiaries Commonwealth Edison and Potomac Electric Power Co. will build projects totaling about $276 million and $292 million, respectively.

PJM’s RTEPs for 2024 and 2023 included $5.9 billion and $6.6 billion in baseline projects.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 09:50

The post Wrecking the Economy to Destroy the Planet appeared first on CEPR.

Bill Gates Pulls Out Of High-Profile Indian AI Summit As Epstein Fallout Accelerates

The Epstein fallout continues to spread by the day, with billionaire Les Wexner saying he was "conned" by Jeffrey Epstein and insisting he "did nothing wrong" earlier this week, and with Prince Andrew (Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor) being arrested on Thursday morning over allegations that he shared confidential government trade documents with Epstein.

Now, Bill Gates has pulled out of a keynote speech at a high-profile global AI summit in India amid the accelerating Epstein fallout.

pic.twitter.com/tGJtEQS97E

— Gates Foundation India (@BMGFIndia) February 19, 2026

"After careful consideration, and to ensure the focus remains on the AI Summit's key priorities, Mr. Gates will not be delivering his keynote address. The Gates Foundation will be represented by Ankur Vora, President of Africa and India Offices, who will speak later today at the Summit," Gates Foundation India wrote on X.

The $86 billion philanthropic body's last-minute decision to yank Gates out of a keynote address follows the billionaire's involvement with Epstein for several years.

The Gates Foundation CEO recently told employees during a town hall event that the Gates-Epstein relationship had deeply tarnished the nonprofit's reputation, according to a Financial Times report.

Related:

• "I Deeply Regret": Bill Gates, Reid Hoffman Deny Epstein Malarkey, And Here's Some Weird Sh*t

• New Mexico Launches Probe Into What Happened At Epstein's 'Zorro Ranch'

• Epstein Ally Was Talking To Feds About Flip, Wanted $3 Million To Keep Quiet, Then Backed Off Deal

We asked earlier...

Hey @CERAWeek you still going with Bill Gates? https://t.co/za6L33BlOj pic.twitter.com/WsIPUddlgl

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 19, 2026

It is important to note that Gates has not been accused of involvement in Epstein's sexual abuse. However, draft emails in the Epstein files show that the billionaire allegedly tried to hide a sexually transmitted disease from his then-wife, Melinda French Gates, after a sexual encounter with "Russian girls."

• Latest Epstein Emails Reveal Bill Gates Slipped Wife Antibiotics For STD He Got From Russian Hookers

FT cited a spokesperson for Gates who has said the claims are "absolutely absurd and completely false", demonstrating only Epstein's "frustration that he did not have an ongoing relationship with Gates." The billionaire has publicly said that he "regrets ever having engaged with Epstein."

Last week:

• Goldman Sacks Ruemmler As Epstein Scandal ClaimsObama'ss Former Lawyer

And this...

Top of Bloomberg this morning, and three days later https://t.co/eADn08Kzdo pic.twitter.com/c3t4cCrWEQ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 19, 2026

Who gets caught up next in the Epstein fallout?

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 08:55

US Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Worsens As Exports Slump Again In December

For the second month in a row, US exports declined and imports rose in December, pushing the US trade balance significantly deeper into deficit.

Imports rose (+3.6% vs +0.1% MoM exp) and exports fell (-1.7% vs +0.1% MoM exp) for the second month in a row...

Source: Bloomberg

Industrial Supplies appears to have seen the biggest shift in trade...

Gold imports fell back near their lowest since 2019...

The result of all this is a second monthly decline in the trade balance (worsening deficit)...

...dramatically worse than the Trump-bragged-about October highs.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 08:51

Futures Slide As Iran War Risks Add To Growing AI Disruption Fears; Oil Surges

Equity futures and global markets are lower, ending a modest rebound in US stocks as concerns about a possible war with US and simmering angst over AI dent the fragile optimism seen on Wednesday. Oil extended its rally after its best day since 2021. Tech and small caps underperform which to JPMorgan's market intel desk "feels more like profit-taking and position squaring as US / Iran tensions spike with Trump saying a deal is preferred but that a strike may occur as soon as this weekend." As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2%, erasing an overnight gain, while Nasdaq futures drop 0.3%, with premarket weakness across all sectors ex-Energy and Aerospace/Def and tech came under renewed pressure; most Mag 7 members dropped in premarket trading. Futures dropped after the head of the UN nuclear watchdog warned that Iran’s window for diplomacy is at risk of closing. As for AI, IG’s chief market analyst Alexandre Baradez says there “seems to be no long-short strategy at play,” with hyperscaler capex and disruption to software firms both causing concern. WTI crude continues to rise and is trading at $66 after it added $2.86 /+4.6% yesterday, its strongest day since 2021. At some point Trump will have to decide if he wants war with Iran or risk soaring gas prices into the midterms. Treasuries extended their slide, pushing yields higher by 1-2bps, while the dollar was flat. Gold erased an advance above $5,000 an ounce. Today’s macro data focus is on Jobless data and the Leading Index

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Microsoft +0.3%, Amazon -0.2%, Alphabet -0.2%, Nvidia -0.2%, Apple -0.4%, Meta Platforms -0.5%, Tesla -0.6%)

• Avis Budget (CAR) falls 16% after the car-rental company forecast adjusted Ebitda for 2026 that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Carvana (CVNA) plunges 11% after rising costs at the online used-car retailer hit margins. Analysts flag weak retail gross profit per unit.
• Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) falls 5% after the restaurant chain’s comp sales during the fourth quarter came in below the average analyst estimate.
• Chewy (CHWY) rises over 3% after Raymond James upgraded to outperform, citing the attractive risk/reward created by recent stock weakness.
• Deere (DE) is up 6% after the company boosted its annual profit outlook as the farm-machinery maker anticipates the agriculture economy will get better soon.
• DoorDash (DASH) rises 9% after the food-delivery company issued a first-quarter orders growth forecast that topped estimates. Evercore ISI notes that fundamentals are improving and that the management’s commentary helped alleviate some investor concerns.
• EPAM Systems (EPAM) slumps 17% after the IT services company forecast its FY revenue growth rate below Wall Street expectations.
• Fiverr International (FVRR) slips 2% after receiving several analyst downgrades, with firms seeing a weaker outlook for the freelance-services marketplace in the wake of its results.
• Herbalife (HLF) rises 12% after the nutrition company said football star Cristiano Ronaldo had invested $7.5 million and provided sponsorship rights for a 10% equity stake in HBL Pro2col Software.
• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) rises 5% after the telehealth company agreed to acquire Eucalyptus, a digital health company, for up to $1.15 billion.
• Occidental (OXY) climbs 5% after the exploration and production company gave 2026 capital expenditure guidance that was lower than expectations.
• ProPetro (PUMP) rises 3% after the fracturing company reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat the average analyst estimate and grew its contracted power capacity.
• Remitly (RELY) climbs 22% after the international money transfer service provider reported results and issued a forecast that topped analyst expectations.
• Walmart Inc. (WMT) slips 3% after issuing a forecast for full-year earnings that missed higher expectations, flagging the unpredictable state of trade and labor market conditions.
• Wayfair (W) falls 6% after the ecommerce firm reported fourth quarter results.

In corporate news, OpenAI is said to be close to securing the first phase of funding likely to bring in more than $100 billion. Samsung is looking to price its latest AI HBM4 chip up to 30% higher than the previous generation, according to local media. The CEO of Google DeepMind warned about AI risks and called for global cooperation. 

What started off a solid overnight session promptly reversed just around the time Europe opened when futures tumbled into the red after the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog warned that Iran’s window for a diplomatic deal on its atomic program is closing. Brent rose above $71 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was near $66. The risk of conflict in the Middle East has emerged as a new worry for traders after technology stocks drove sharp swings in recent weeks.

Brent rose above $71 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was near $66. Inflation concerns are already at the forefront of investors’ minds after minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting showed several officials suggested that the central bank may need to raise rates if price growth remains stubbornly high.

Investors also remain wary of further slowing in the S&P 500’s strongest driver of the past three years, amid concerns that AI could disrupt entire sectors and that heavy capital spending wouldn’t pay off.

"What’s really interesting is that there seems to be no long-short strategy at play,” said Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG in Paris. “This will continue at least until the next earnings season when we’ll get more insight. In the meantime, all eyes will be on Nvidia’s results next week.”

Indeed, doubts about Big Tech are playing out across the market. As we first showed here yesterday, Morgan Stanley's analysis of 13F filings shows mega-cap tech stocks finished the year the most under-owned relative to their weightings in the S&P 500 in 17 years.

And Goldman Sachs data shows 57% of large-cap mutual funds outperforming their benchmarks year-to-date, the highest share since 2007, with rotation in the equity market leading to a broadening in returns.

Simmering geopolitical risks and still-elevated tech valuations could fuel further rotation out of megacaps and into defensive sectors, said Craig Cameron, a portfolio manager at Templeton Global Investments. Still, the vast amount of capital expenditure shows that exposure to technology remains vital, he said.

“These sectors that are feeding into the AI capex cycle and the electrification cycle, those are the right places to be,” he said. “As valuations move higher, the right thing to do is to move into unloved areas and reduce that overweight over time.”

Walmart and Deere are among companies expected to report results before the market opens. Walmart results face a high bar from investors, but the main focus will be guidance and the new CEO will contend with uneven consumer sentiment, fierce competition and a lackluster US labor market.  Earnings from Newmont and Copart follow later in the day.

European stocks retreated from Wednesday’s record close with the Stoxx 600 down 0.7%, after underwhelming earnings from the likes of Airbus and Renault, with investors also monitoring geopolitical risks. Nestle gained after it said sales growth would likely quicken this year. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:

• FDJ United shares rally as much as 8.8%, the most since July 2024, as the lottery provider’s full-year results meet analysts’ expectations.
• Air France-KLM shares rise as much as 16% to the highest level since September, after the airline operator reported better-than-expected earnings in the fourth quarter.
• Covivio shares advance as much as 9.1%, the most since April 2025, with analysts describing the real estate investment trust’s 2025 performance as solid.
• Azelis shares rise as much as 9.6% after the Belgian chemicals distribution firm posted results which JPMorgan said represented a smaller miss than peer IMCD reported yesterday, which had caused a sharp drop in the stock.
• Tenaris shares rise as much as 6.5% in Milan, climbing to the highest since July 2008, after the steel pipe manufacturer reported robust results.
• Orange shares rise as much as 5.6% to the highest levels since 2010 as investors cheered the telecom operator’s guidance, including a lower capital spending target.
• Nestle shares rise as much as 4.5%, the most since October, after what RBC described as a “decent” fourth-quarter print from the Swiss food giant.
• Arcadis shares plunge as much as 21%, crashing to a 2021 low, after the provider of consulting and engineering services reported earnings that were well below expectations and issued guidance that analysts at Jefferies say will significantly reduce expectations for this year.
• Aegon shares drop as much as 6.8%, the most in two months, after the Dutch insurance group reported a mixed set of earnings and failed to provide an update on its UK strategic review.
• Airbus shares fall as much as 5.9% after the French airplane company forecast commercial aircraft deliveries for 2026 of about 870 planes, lower than most previous estimates.
• Rio Tinto shares decline as much as 4.4% in London, its biggest intraday drop since August, after the miner reported net debt that analysts say missed expectations.
• Euronext drops as much as 5.1% after announcing cost guidance for 2026 that’s higher than consensus expectations, overshadowing its small fourth-quarter beats.
• Centrica shares tumble as much as 9.6%, the steepest drop since July 2024, after the British energy company did not announce a new buyback in its results

Earlier in the session. Asian stocks climbed, led by South Korea. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.6%, extending gains to a second day. Samsung Electronics and Tokyo Electron were among the biggest boosts to the gauge. South Korea’s Kospi Index advanced to a fresh record as markets reopened after a three-day holiday, while benchmarks in Japan and Singapore jumped more than 1%.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index is a touch higher after dipping in the European morning as EUR/USD and cable briefly reclaimed 1.18 and 1.35 respectively, and USD/JPY slipped below 155. Aussie dollar is near the top of the G-10 pile following following strong jobs data overnight.

In rates, treasuries were on course for their longest losing streak in a month as tensions in the Middle East fuel oil-driven inflation fears. The 10-year yield rose for a third day, up one basis point to 4.09%. Treasury hold small losses into the Thursday open, with yields 1bp to 2bp cheaper across a slightly steeper curve, partially unwinding this week’s flattening trend. Oil prices, up 1.6% near high end of range since August on growing tensions between the US and Iran, add to upside pressure on Treasury yields via increased inflation expectations. US 10-year yield is less than 1bp higher on the day near 4.095% after topping 4.10% for first time this week; German and UK counterparts see steeper increases, adding to pressure on Treasuries. Treasury plans $9 billion 30-year TIPS new issue auction at 1pm New York time. Focal points of US session include weekly jobless claims, 30-year TIPS auction and several Fed speakers. 

In commodities, oil has continued its climb with Brent making its way onto a $71/bbl handle as Iranian conflict concerns continue to support prices. Axios reported on Wednesday that a major US military operation in the Middle East could begin soon. Upside in energy is supporting global bond yields.  Spot gold has slipped below the $5,000 mark, still up 0.2% but lagging silver, up 1.3%. Bitcoin of course tumbles to LOD. 

US economic calendar slate includes December trade balance, wholesale inventories, February Philadelphia Fed business outlook and weekly jobless claims (8:30am), and December Leading index and January pending home sales (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Bostic (8:20am), Bowman (8:30am), Kashkari (9am) and Goolsbee (10:30am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.4%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.5%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.5%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.7%
• DAX -0.9%
• CAC 40 -0.9%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.09%
• VIX +1 points at 20.66
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1189.41
• euro little changed at $1.179
• WTI crude +1% at $65.81/barrel

Top Overnight News

• British Police arrest King Charles' brother Andrew over misconduct relating to Epstein
• U.S. Gathers the Most Air Power in the Mideast Since the 2003 Iraq Invasion: WSJ
• The US military build-up in the Middle East means Iran’s window to reach a diplomatic agreement over its atomic activities is at risk of closing, according to the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog. The International Atomic Energy Agency has discussed concrete proposals with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to inspect sites bombed last year by Israel and the US: BBG
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says the US, and perhaps some Europeans, are discussing a new document between NATO and Russia: BBG
• OpenAI Funding on Track to Top $100 Billion in Latest Round: BBG
• Bill Gates pulls out of India AI summit amid Epstein scrutiny: RTRS
• Epstein Waged a Years-Long Quest to Meet Putin and Talk Finance: BBG
• The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as soon as March or April, Junichi Hanzawa, chairman of the Japanese Bankers Association, says at a regular news briefing in Tokyo
• Swiss watch exports resumed their long slump in January after a brief respite the previous month triggered by the easing of US tariffs: BBG
• France’s strategy to reduce its budget deficit this year remains “very uncertain,” even after the government set less ambitious targets than initially planned, the country’s audit court said: BBG
• Walmart Sales Climb, Driven by Grocery and Online Gains: WSJ
• Walmart Cites Trade, Labor Concerns in Cautious Profit Forecast: BBG
• Top European spies sceptical US will clinch Ukraine peace deal this year: RTRS
• Top Lawyers’ Fees Have Skyrocketed. Be Prepared to Pay $3,400 an Hour: WSJ
• From Paris to New Delhi, the Push to Ban Teens From Social Media Is Going Global: WSJ
• Steve Cohen's $3.4 Billion Payday Tops Hedge Fund Ranks: BBG
• The Far-Fetched Mission to Reclaim Islands That Host a Key U.S. Military Base: WSJ

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump and his advisors have reportedly indicated that the USMCA could be scrapped, NY Times reports. Instead, the US could have bilateral deals with Canada and Mexico. US officials have been increasing pressure on Canada. Canadian officials cited add that their expectation for a full renewal of the USMCA is very low. Officials believe Trump is trying to weaken Canada economically to force it to give up some protectionist policies. The article reminds us that in 2018, the US proposed a bilateral deal with Mexico and told Canada to get on board or be left out.
• US-ASEAN Business Council said US and Indonesian companies signed trade and investment deals covering critical minerals, semiconductors, agriculture and forestry, while deals include a USD 4.89bln semiconductor joint venture involving Essence Global Group. Indonesian firms are to purchase 1mln tons of US soybeans, 1.6mln tons of corn, and 93,000 tons of cotton over an unspecified period.
• US President Trump posted that the US trade deficit has been reduced by 78% because of the tariffs being charged to other companies and countries, adds it will go into positive territory during this year for the first time in many decades.
• Canadian minister responsible for Canada-US trade LeBlanc said Canadian companies from various provinces have signed 15 commercial partnerships in Mexico.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded higher following the positive handover from the US and with South Korea outperforming amid tech strength on return from the Lunar New Year holidays. ASX 200 rallied to a fresh record high with the gains led by strength in telecoms and energy, as the former was boosted alongside Telstra, which reported a 9.3% increase in H1 net profit, while energy stocks benefitted from the rise in underlying oil prices amid geopolitical frictions. Nikkei 225 gained with sentiment underpinned by a weaker currency and stronger-than-expected Machine Tool Orders. KOSPI outperformed on return from the Lunar New Year holiday closure as tech stocks played catch-up to the rebound in their US counterparts, including index heavyweight Samsung Electronics, as its shares rallied by around 5% to a record high.

Top Asian News

• Australian Unemployment Rate (Jan) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.1%).
• Australian Employment Change (Jan) 17.8K vs. Exp. 20K (Prev. 65.2K, Low. -5K, High. 40K).
• Australian Part Time Employment Chg (Jan) -32.7K (Prev. 10.4K).
• Australian Full Time Employment Chg (Jan) 50.5K (Prev. 54.8K).
• Australian Participation Rate (Jan) 66.7% vs. Exp. 66.8% (Prev. 66.7%).
• Japanese Stock Investment by Foreigners (Feb/14) 1424.2 (Prev. 591.4, Rev. From 543.2).
• Japanese Machinery Orders YoY (Dec) Y/Y 16.8% vs. Exp. 3.9% (Prev. -6.4%, Low. -1.1%, High. 10.6%).
• Japanese Machinery Orders MoM (Dec) M/M 19.1% vs. Exp. 4.5% (Prev. -11.0%, Rev. From -11%, Low. 1%, High. 

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.7%) are entirely in the red. The FTSE MIB (-1.2%), DAX 40 (-0.9%) and CAC 40 (-0.8%) are the clear underperformers after a flurry of corporate news. European sectors are mixed, with a slight tilt to the downside. Food, Beverage and Tobacco (+0.7%) is outperforming following earnings by Nestle (+2.5%), which announced that it is in advanced negotiations to sell its remaining Froneri stake. At the bottom sits Basic Resources (-2.8%), Autos and Parts (-2.1%) and Utilities (-2.2%). The former continues to have a choppy week, this time catalysed by Rio Tinto (-4.6%) as FY profit failed to grow and a drag on its iron ore unit in China. For the latter, Italian utilities (A2A -3.7%, Enel -4.1%, Italgas -2.1%) have been hit after Italy approved a 2bp hike in its IRAP corporate tax. Renault (-5.9%) has been weighing on the Autos sector after posting a net loss worse than expected.

Top European News

• UK's ONS on ongoing data issues, reported the "Latest steps reaffirm commitment to quality over quantity".

FX

• DXY has waned from overnight highs after advancing yesterday and overnight amid better-than-expected data and as oil prices surged after sources noted the Trump administration is closer to a major war with Iran than people realise. On the US docket ahead, weekly initial jobless claims (which coincide with the traditional survey window for the BLS' February jobs data) are expected little changed at 225k (prev. 227k), while continuing claims (this week does not coincide with the BLS window) are seen unchanged at 1.87mln. Most recently, a NYT report suggested that the Trump administration indicated that the USMCA could be scrapped, in favour of bilateral deals with Canada and Mexico. DXY resides in a current 97.572-97.777 range at the time of writing.
• JPY is narrowly softer but off worst levels, with USD/JPY hovering around its 100 DMA (154.744), with some fleeting strength seen yesterday in wake of the FOMC minutes in which the Fed confirmed it did a USD/JPY rate check on behalf of the US Treasury in January. Analysts at ING highlight that "Something like this is extremely rare in foreign exchange markets and is a sign of a more activist White House when it comes to FX. The move was clearly designed to deliver maximum impact and reflects the shared desire from both Washington and Tokyo that USD/JPY does not sustain a move through 160".
• EUR trims some of yesterday's losses after briefly slipping beneath the 1.1800 level (to a 1.1782 low on Wednesday) as the buck strengthened, and with the single currency not helped by conflicting reports about ECB President Lagarde's future. Recent reports suggested ECB President Lagarde reportedly tells colleagues that she would tell them first if she were to step down, according to sources; colleagues reportedly interpreted this to mean her departure is not immediate, but the door is not closed. EUR/USD resides towards the top end of a 1.1781-1.1808 range.
• Antipodeans outperform amid recent underperformance and following positive risk appetite in APAC (before waning in European hours), with AUD/USD supported following the mixed jobs data, which showed headline employment change slightly missed expectations, although the unemployment rate printed lower than expected, and the increase in jobs was solely fuelled by full-time work.

Central Banks

• WSJ's Timiraos noted regarding the January Fed meeting minutes that it was interesting there was no date specified for when inflation gets to 2%, and instead minutes states that forecast is "slightly higher, on balance".
• Japan Bank Lobby said markets expect a BoJ hike as soon as March; Lobby Head believes there is a reasonable possibility of a hike as early as March or April.
• ECB President Lagarde reportedly tells colleagues that she would tell them first if she were to step down, according to sources; colleagues reportedly interpreted this to mean her departure is not immediate, but the door is not closed.
• RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk said the easing cycle is likely over and there are risks on either side, adds maintaining accommodative policy for a while aligns with economic conditions.
• SNB has defined a standardised and scalable process for the ELF that will enable participating banks to quickly obtain liquidity support against collateral as necessary.
• Riksbank takes measures to facilitate banks’ liquidity management.

Fixed Income

• USTs are lower by a handful of ticks this morning, and currently trade within a 112-24+ to 112-31 range. Moved lower for much of the morning, before picking up a touch as US/European equity futures dipped lower.
• The bearish bias follows on from; a) the prior day’s stronger-than-expected US data, b) rising energy prices (spurred by geopolitical tensions), c) JGB pressure overnight, following strong Machine Tool Orders and a weak 20yr JGB auction, d) a poor 20yr auction; on the latter point, desks highlight that the 20yr has historically not been the markets favoured outing. On the geopolitical narrative, there have been continued reports that the US is upping its presence in Iran, with a US Senior Official telling Axios that US-Iran talks have been a “nothing burger”, and that is why POTUS is close to deciding on the issue of going to war with Iran. As it stands, US paper appears to be pricing in the inflationary impacts (higher oil prices), but an outright attack could lead to some haven-related demand.
• Bunds are also pressured alongside global peers. Currently holds towards the lower end of a 129.05 to 129.31 range. Newsflow for German paper is lacking today, aside from ECB-related reporting. Source reports suggest that President Lagarde told her colleagues that she would tell them before she leaves; her colleagues reportedly interpreted this to mean her departure is not immediate, but the door is not closed. De Cos and Knot have been touted as potential replacements once President Lagarde leaves her role, though Rabobank cautions that the process is highly political and difficult to predict, noting markets should largely ignore speculation for now.
• Gilts are trading in-fitting with peers, and trading around the 92.00 mark within a 91.96 to 92.03 range. UK data slate has paused for today, ahead of Retail Sales/PMIs on Friday. This follows on from dovish jobs/wages and mixed inflation metrics earlier this week, which confirmed the disinflation process but Services and Core topped-expectations, leaving the more hawkish MPC members cautious. Markets are currently torn between a cut in March or April; analysts at ING see a cut in March and then another by June.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks remain elevated amid heightening geopolitical tension between the US and Iran following the Axios report on Wednesday which noted that the US President Trump’s administration is closer to a major war with Iran than people realise. Tensions continue to persist, with an overnight report from CNN that the US military is ready to strike Iran as early as this weekend and the WSJ reporting that the US has gathered the greatest amount of air power in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion. WTI and Brent are trading at the upper end prices of USD 64.84-66.27/bbl and USD 70.18-71.60/bbl, respectively, with Brent touching the USD 71/bbl, which marks the first time since August last year.
• Precious metals are firmer, benefiting from haven demand from the ongoing geopolitical tension between the US and Iran, with the yellow metal crossing the USD 5,000/oz mark. The weaker USD ahead of the FOMC minutes also spurred demand for the yellow metal. XAU and XAG are trading at the upper range of USD 4979.14-5040.21/oz and USD 76.355-79.355.
• Copper price action is moving contrary to the trend seen in precious metals. Risk sentiment in the early European session as well as subdued activity from Asia due to the Chinese holiday has seen the red metal trading lower thus far. 3M LME copper trades at the lower price range of USD 12.846-12.937k/t.
• US Energy Secretary Wright said the US could leave the IEA if the group does not change.
• Hungarian PM Orban's Chief of Staff said they would take steps in the scenario that Ukraine continues to halt Druzhba oil shipments.
• US Treasury Department issues general license authorising transactions related to oil and gas sector operations in Venezuela.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +0.6mln (prev. +13.4mln), Distillate -1.6mln (prev. -2.0mln), Gasoline -0.3mln (prev. +3.3mln), Cushing -2.4mln (prev. +1.4mln).

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he is aware that the US and Europe have been talking to Russia and we must be prepared to react to surprises.
• Russia's Kremlin on the Iran situation said they see unprecedented escalation of tensions and on Ukraine talks, said there's nothing to add following comments from the likes of Medinsky yesterday. Reiterates that no date has been set for the next Ukraine talks.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• IAEA Director Grossi said Iran discussed a potential IAEA return to bombed nuclear sites, adds there is no deal unless the IAEA was in a position to verify and there is not much time to reach an Iran nuclear deal, via Bloomberg TV. His role is to get the nations into a position to come to a deal without the need for force. IAEA has proposed a few solutions.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov warns of any new US strike on Iran.
• Israeli raid reported on areas of deployment of occupation forces east of Gaza City, according to Al Jazeera.
• Two Israeli defense officials said that significant preparations were underway for possibility of a joint strike with the US against Iran, according to NYT.
• US gathers the greatest amount of air power in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion and President Trump is being briefed on military options for striking Iran, even as aides hold talks with the Iranian regime, according to WSJ.
• Iraqi Foreign Minister said any alternative to US-Iran deal would be disastrous, and they may not be able to export their oil if war breaks out in the region.
• US military is ready to strike Iran as early as this weekend, although President Trump has yet to make the final decision, according to sources familiar with the matter cited by CNN.
• US senior official said US expects Iran to submit a written proposal on resolving standoff in the wake of Tuesday's talks.

Geopolitics: Others 

• US is pushing NATO to cut many foreign activities, including ending a key alliance mission in Iraq, according to four NATO diplomats cited by POLITICO.
• Israeli Defense Forces announced they struck Hezbollah infrastructure sites in southern Lebanon, according to Sky News Arabia.
• US Southern Command Commander Donovan met with Venezuela's interim President Rodriguez and defence officials in Caracas.
• North Korea's Kim Yo Jong said military will take measures to strengthen its vigilance on border with South Korea; she appreciates South Korean Unification Minister's official recognition of South Korea's drone provocation. Border with the enemy should be solid.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Dec Trade Balance, est. -55.5b, prior -56.8b
• 8:30 am: United States Dec P Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: United States Feb Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 7.5, prior 12.6
• 8:30 am: United States Feb 14 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225k, prior 227k
• 8:30 am: United States Feb 7 Continuing Claims, est. 1860k, prior 1862k
• 8:30 am: United States Fed’s Bowman Gives Opening Remarks at Banking Conferernce
• 9:00 am: United States Fed’s Kashkari in Fireside Chat on Economic Outlook
• 10:00 am: United States Dec Leading Index, est. -0.2%, prior -0.3%
• 10:00 am: United States Jan Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 2%, prior -9.3%
• 10:30 am: United States Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Opening Remarks

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The disruption narrative has taken a well-earned breather for much of this week, helping to steady nerves. Positive economic data and supportive tech news over the past 24 hours have built on that calm, pushing most major indices to solid gains. The S&P 500 advanced by +0.56%, the NASDAQ by +0.78%, while in Europe the STOXX 600 (+1.19%), FTSE 100 (+1.23%) and CAC (+0.81%) all reached new record highs. Overnight the KOSPI has reopened +2.81% higher after a 3-day break and the Nikkei (+0.78%) and Topix (+1.23%) are also higher. 

Part of the catalyst for the rally were pre-US market reports that Nvidia (+1.63%) had agreed to supply Meta (+0.61%) with large quantities of processors over the coming years. The news boosted both technology and semiconductor stocks, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up +0.96% and the Magnificent 7 rising by +0.77%. That said, the Magnificent 7 continues to underperform on a year to date basis (6.35%). Semiconductor sentiment was further supported by strong quarterly results and guidance from Analog Devices (+2.63%). US equity gains were also pretty broad, with almost two-thirds of the S&P 500 higher on the day, though defensive sectors including consumer staples (-0.53%) and utilities (-1.70%) underperformed.

The equity rally was reinforced by solid US economic data. January industrial production rose +0.7% m/m versus expectations of +0.4%, while factory output increased +0.6% m/m, also beating forecasts. These prints marked the biggest monthly rises in eleven months. Earlier in the morning, core capital goods shipments rose +0.9% in December (+0.3% expected), and with +0.4pp revision for the prior month. US housing starts also reached a five month high in November but that’s clearly a bit backward looking now. Next up on the data front, today’s jobless claims (215k vs. 226k) will be closely watched, given their overlap with the February employment survey period.

Treasury yields moved higher for a second day running in response to the data, with the 2yr yield up +2.7bps to 3.46% and the 10yr up +2.4bps to 4.08%. The grind higher in rates was also supported by hawkish-leaning minutes of the January FOMC meeting. Notably “the vast majority of participants judged that labor market conditions had been showing some signs of stabilization”, even though the meeting had taken place before the improved January jobs report. And “several participants indicated” support for more two-sided language on future rate moves, raising the possibility of rate hikes “if inflation remains at above-target levels”. While that’s still far from an active call to raise rates, it adds to the sense that most of the FOMC are in no rush to deliver further cuts. Overnight, US yields are up a further +1 to 1.5bps across the curve.

Elsewhere, oil rebounded sharply from Tuesday’s decline. The immediate trigger appeared to be an Axios op ed warning that the US and Iran may be moving closer to a major confrontation, though it is difficult to point to any single catalyst. More broadly, investors seem to have concluded that there has been no meaningful political breakthrough following talks earlier this week. Against that backdrop, Brent and WTI both rose by more than +4%, with Brent moving back above $70/bbl. Precious metals also recovered amid renewed geopolitical unease, with gold up +2.04% and silver jumping +5.00%. All three are edging up a little more this morning.

In Europe, front end bond yields edged higher on concerns about rising oil prices, while moves further along the curve were mixed. The 10yr bund yield was +0.1bps, while OATs (-0.6bps) and gilts (-0.2bps) edged lower. And 2yr gilts (-0.4bps) gained despite a slightly firm UK CPI print, which showed January inflation easing to +3.0% y/y from +3.4%, in line with consensus but 0.1pp above the Bank of England’s forecast. Core inflation was slightly stickier than expected at +3.1% y/y (+3.0% expected). While this does mark the lowest headline inflation in 10 months, the data could complicate the BoE’s March decision at the margin, though our UK economist still expects a cut next month given the deteriorating labour market. 

Staying with Europe, the FT reported yesterday that Christine Lagarde is considering stepping down early as ECB President (as we mentioned as the story was breaking this time yesterday), ahead of the scheduled end of her term in October 2027. This potentially links to reports earlier in the week that EU leaders are discussing a package deal to fill upcoming ECB executive board vacancies at once, with Lagarde, Lane and Schnabel all due to leave during the course of 2027. A motivating factor for a possible bundling of appointments is that it would allow current European leaders to make the decision over ECB leadership, insulating it from the influence of a possible far-right French President after the next election in April 2027, especially given the RN’s past rhetoric on redefining the ECB’s mandate. Our European economists do not expect any early change in ECB leadership to significantly change the path of ECB policy going forward, with their baseline view that the ECB will keep rates on hold until mid 2027. 

Other than what we discussed at the top about a rally this morning in Asia, the other story of note has been the Australian job numbers. Total employment increased by 17,800 in January, which was close to the consensus forecasts of around 20,000, but the unemployment rate surprisingly remained stable at 4.1%, a tenth below expectations. 3 and 10yr Aussie yields are +7.8bps and +6bps higher respectively. The ASX is +0.78% higher.

Looking ahead, today brings further US data including the February Philadelphia Fed business outlook, January pending home sales and initial jobless claims. Elsewhere, we’ll see France’s January retail sales, Italy’s December current account balance, Eurozone December construction output and February consumer confidence. Central bank events include the ECB’s economic bulletin and speeches from Fed officials Bostic, Kashkari and Goolsbee. Notable earnings include Walmart, Nestlé and Airbus, while the US will also auction $9bn of 30 year TIPS.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 08:44

Initial Jobless Claims Tumble Back Near Multi-Decade Lows

Despite the ongoing worsening trend in some labor market condition indicators - Payrolls revisions ugly, JOLTs are tumbling, Survey-based data showing jobs hard to get far worse than jobs plentiful - the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time fell to 206k (from 229k the prior week)...

Source: Bloomberg

That is back near multi-decade lows and at the lowest end of the range of the last five years.

Continuing jobless claims rose modestly (from 1.852mm to 1.869mm) but remains well below the 1.9mm Maginot Line...

So, should we just be ignoring surveys completely now?

Or are we solidly back in the 'no hire, no fire' economy?

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 08:36

US Is Rapidly Expanding Its Nuclear Supply Chain: It's Not Nearly Fast Enough

As we have repeatedly highlighted (most recently here), the much-hyped resurgence in US nuclear power is notable for one thing: the lack of actual new reactors. In fact, according to the latest Goldman Nuclear Nuggets monthly report, while China is currently building 38 new nuclear reactors - and both India and Russia have 6 reactors under construction - the US is not even on the chart.

Indeed, despite splashy announcements, like November’s agreement for Japan to fund a $80 billion plan to build as many as 10 big reactors in the US, no new commercial-scale facilities are actually under construction. Meanwhile in China, work has started on 10 new sites since the beginning of 2025 (for the full list see the February Nuclear Nuggets report).

And even if reactors were being built in the US right now (which they aren't) it’s unclear how they would be fueled.

As Bloomberg writes, almost all of the uranium going into the current US nuclear fleet is imported, and there’s only enough enrichment capacity to supply about one-third of domestic reactors.

If next-generation atomic reactors eventually get built, they’ll need a new type of more potent fuel called high-assay low-enriched uranium, or HALEU, for which there’s just a single demonstration production line in the US that makes small volumes (it belongs to Centrus Energy, one of our favorite stocks).

“The core of the issue is insufficient capacity,” says Amir Vexler, the chief executive officer of enrichment company Centrus Energy Corp. “We need a lot of everything.” 

However, efforts are under way to expand the nation’s nuclear supply chain, at all four stages of the fuel cycle.

First, several uranium miners, including Ur-Energy, are planning to boost US output. Next, when it comes to converting that uranium into gas, Solstice Advanced Materials - the only US conversion company - said last week it plans to increase capacity.

The third stage, enriching the gas, will get a boost from Centrus. It hired construction giant Fluor Corp. for a multibillion-dollar facility in Ohio, and was one of three companies that each received $900 million in January from the Department of Energy to expand US enrichment capacity. 

The fourth and final stage in the chain, fuel fabrication, is also seeing progress. X-Energy Reactor, an advanced nuclear company backed by Amazon.com, received US approval for a new plant just last week. 

It’s the first such license in more than five decades — another sign of how activity is picking up in the US nuclear sector, even if major new reactors remain years away.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 08:20

"The Plan Was To Kill Off Gold As Money..."

Authored by Alasdair Macleod via VonGreyerz.gold,

For years, bulls of gold and silver have complained about how derivatives have been used to suppress their prices. Their dreams of the practice ending could be coming true...

Introduction

If you think about it, there is a simple reason that derivatives for speculating or hedging gold is fatally flawed. It is because in nearly every nation’s common law, gold is money, and currencies are inferior credit, which is where payment risk actually lies. That the Western financial establishment is ignorant of this fact does not change the facts.

There is a good reason why this matters. Gold has lasted as legal money, and credit has been separately acknowledged to be deferred payment in money since Roman law. Since then, there have been many instances of governments denying these facts and promoting their currencies in the place of gold, which have always ended in their collapse.

In any price relationship involving a medium of exchange, there is an objective value and a subjective one. The objective value is always in the medium of exchange, and the subjective value is in the goods or services being exchanged. Put another way, the buyer and seller will both value money or its substitute the same, but the buyer values the goods or services more highly than the seller: otherwise, the exchange won’t take place. But if gold is the money, where does that leave a fiat currency?

Clearly, if the currency is not a credible gold substitute, then it should bear the subjective value relative to gold. That it is not regarded this way is partly due to government anti-gold propaganda, but mainly due to accounting in the government’s currency for tax purposes. Furthermore, while a gold standard is always defined as a currency being exchangeable for a given weight of gold, for convenience it is referred to as so many currency units per gramme or ounce. This gives the erroneous impression that gold is being priced in the subordinate currency.

This is as may be, but in the knowledge that a fiat currency always fails while gold as money never does, the recognition of this reality will eventually kill off any derivatives when fiat currencies collapse. And if some derivatives survive, it should then refer to fiat currencies in terms of gold-grammes, or better still, in a credible gold substitute instead if one exists. 

Gold derivatives should not exist in the first place, except perhaps for seasonal agricultural produce — the original function. It should be borne in mind in the context of this article.

The plan was to kill off gold as money 

Following the inflationary seventies, which almost destroyed the post-1971 dollar-based fiat currency system, there can be little doubt that the deep thinkers in the US Treasury thought long and hard as to how to drive inflation out of the economy while promoting the dollar to kill off gold as money. The solution chosen came in three distinct policies. 

• The first and most obvious was to reform the financial system so that the banks would wrest control of financial securities from the brokerage industry: this resulted in London’s big-bang, implemented by the Thatcher government in the mid-eighties at the US Treasury’s behest. A capital-starved securities industry would become turbocharged by bank finance, ensuring a perpetual bull market in financial asset values, including government debt, and ensuring everlasting demand for dollars.

• The second was to reform statistical calculation for key economic indicators, such as consumer price inflation and jobless figures, giving a measure of government control over them to create the illusion of currency stability. Not only was the indexation cost of pensions and welfare thereby contained, but interest rates were permitted to be lower than they would otherwise be. All economic statistics are produced by government agencies who control this information.

• The third was to sanction and encourage derivative markets to expand, and by doing so divert speculative demand from physical markets for gold. This was to prevent gold prices from being driven higher, threatening the status of the dollar as a medium of exchange. It was the basis of the massive expansion of gold trading on the LBMA, and of gold futures under the control of the large US banks, which would occasionally act as agents for the Exchange Stabilisation Fund.

In London, 44 million ounces were cleared daily in 1998 on the London Bullion Market, valued at approximately $13 billion at that time. Last December, 17 million ounces were cleared, but at higher prices, they were valued at $71 billion. It should be noted that outstanding forward commitments measured by their average duration in days are unrecorded multiples of daily settlement. 

The falling settlement numbers in London from 44 million to 17 million, while the value of the settlement rose 4.5 times, illustrates the problem paper markets now face. On Comex, which has the same problem, this is demonstrated by the gross and net short position of the Swaps category, which is comprised mainly of bullion bank traders:

Between 2010 and 2018, the average gross short position was $15bn, compared with $112bn today. And the net position averaged $7bn, compared with $90bn currently.

This particularly matters because physical gold is now being drained out of London and New York directly or indirectly by a combination of central bank and wider Asian demand. While London faces a developing liquidity crisis of available gold bullion, Comex has a position which is proving impossible to contain, let alone from drifting into ever higher liabilities for bullion bank traders. 

In both markets, higher prices require increasing fiat capital to sustain positions. This fact alone is bound to restrict these markets’ ability to trade in the numbers demanded of them.

Hope that demand for physical gold will diminish, allowing the bullion establishment to initiate a raid on bullish speculators, is proving to be whistling into the wind, a wind blowing with increasing strength driven by a mixture of geopolitics and increasing credit risk facing the fiat dollar. In short, gold derivative markets are drifting towards the rocks of a crisis.

This matters because gold is central to everything, more so than the illusory dollar. Gold as money in possession has no counterparty risk, while the fiat dollar with increasing counterparty risk is of uncertain future value. The central banks accumulating bullion, as well as other Asian entities and individuals, are being motivated to rid themselves of this dollar uncertainty, choosing not to encash them for other currencies which are ultimately tied to the dollar’s credibility but for gold. 

The relationship between dollars and gold has been a conundrum for many since the suspension of the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971. The western financial establishment has lost all compass as to which is money and which is credit, with most actors not even aware of gold’s central importance.

To illustrate this importance, the chart below shows average values for a range of industrial metals priced in dollars and gold, followed by a chart of oil similarly priced.

Priced in dollars, commodity and energy prices have risen multiple times and with great volatility, while they have been remarkably steady priced in gold. The point being made is that the approaching problems in paper gold contracts will almost certainly be transmitted into higher dollar prices for commodities generally, as paper hedging in the form of derivatives diminishes. And the catalyst for an implosion of commodity and energy derivatives is gold.

Just as derivatives have suppressed gold and other commodity values from the 1980s onwards, their ending is set to unleash an explosion of physical replacement demand. The contraction of outstanding commodity derivatives will not be without accidents. Banks will face enormous write-offs, and doubtless some rescues will have to be arranged by the authorities. And there’s no guarantee that other derivative markets, such as interest rate swaps and fore,x will go unscathed because of the commonality of derivative counterparties.

The rise in values for gold and commodities generally is the same thing as a decline in the value of the dollar for the purpose of dealing in commodities. Foreign holders of dollars will be acutely aware of the consequences, dumping dollars increasingly to hoard commodities.

Looking at oil and base metal values, they are already relatively cheaply priced in gold. Or put the other way, being moderately expensive gold appears to have begun to discount a wider currency crisis, while these commodities have not yet. 

Forced by global markets, as opposed to those under the control of the US authorities, the wisdom of ancient Roman lawmakers in framing the origin of all their successor nations’ common law is being reaffirmed. The error being corrected today is the accumulation of fiat currency distortions of the last fifty-five years, which looks like it is coming to a financially violent end.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 08:05

Airbus Shares Hit Turbulence After Dismal Delivery Outlook

Shares of Airbus SE plunged as much as 8% in Paris trading after the aerospace and defense group guided to 870 commercial aircraft deliveries for 2026, well below the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of 896. Airbus blamed the softer outlook on the lack of reliable engine supplies for its A320 family of jets.

UBS analyst Tricia Wright said fourth-quarter results were in line, but the 2026 guidance was at the low end of expectations, and long-term production targets were downgraded.

"While the possibility of a long-term production rate target downgrade had been discussed by investors, 2026 guidance is also below the expectations of most investors we spoke to—880 deliveries, €7.5–8 billion EBIT, and €5–5.5 billion FCF," said UBS analyst Ian Douglas-Pennant. The analyst reiterated his "buy" rating on Airbus.

The lower guidance was largely due to what CEO Guillaume Faury called a "significant" shortage of engines from Pratt & Whitney. He said this forced the planemaker into a mad dash to meet last year's delivery target, which was ultimately lowered in the final weeks of the year.

"Pratt & Whitney's failure to commit to the number of engines ordered by Airbus is negatively impacting this year's guidance and the ramp-up trajectory," Airbus wrote in a statement.

Here's a snapshot of the 2026 full-year forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Sees commercial aircraft deliveries of about 870 planes; estimate 895.74 (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Sees adjusted EBIT of about €7.5 billion; estimate €8.19 billion

• Sees adjusted free cash flow of about €4.5 billion; estimate €5.68 billion

Goldman analyst Jeremy Elster commented on bearish technicals developing for the planemaker:

AIRBUS trading down -8%, breaking 200dma and breaching lows of recent range –

Feedback: guide came in at lower end – per comment yesterday; at €200 I would argue the shares are pricing in an €~8bn ebit guide. At closer to €190 we had more fully priced >€7.5bn. Feedback is mostly arguing to defend this as yet another Airbus "clearing event", but it is clear that conviction is fragile in the currently rather volatile tape.

In the numbers: headline item is '26 guide at 870 aircraft, ebit "around 7.5bn", and cash flow "around 4.5bn". Implied consensus downgrade is m to hsd. The company cite continued "failure to commit" from Pratt as holding up engine deliveries. The ramp-up guide is tweaked to now assume rate 70-75 by the end of 2027 (previously 75) and to stabilise at rate 75 "thereafter" (consensus has rates reaching this cadence only in '29/30).

After the call – a few more reasons for optimism than is typical from Airbus. Key soundbites:

• "guidance does not reflect any concern on a per aircraft basis. the margins are healthy".

• "FCF main impact is Spirit now being worse because of late deal close leading to spill over into '26"

• Engines (the key topic) – "Pratt issues will mainly impact '26 and to some extent '27". "we continue to pursue reaching rate 75 by end of next year, but due to uncertainty on engine volumes we changed the guide to 70-75"… "as we navigate the relationship with Pratt we want to preserve the possibility to have better news at a later stage". 

Shares of Airbus in Paris tumbled as much as 8.1% following the downgraded full-year update on aircraft deliveries.

Elster noted, "Airbus looking technically fragile, despite an update that could / should have reassured…" 

Airbus deliveries in January fell to their lowest level since 2020, marking the weakest start to a year in at least a decade. By contrast, rival Boeing has continued to recover from yearslong 737 MAX crisis and recently posted its highest commercial aircraft deliveries since 2018.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 07:45

My morning train WFH reads:

• The grift economy is going mainstream Scams and grift have evolved from fringe activity into normalized economic behavior, marking a fundamental shift in how cons operate in plain sight. (Your Brain on Money)

• Detroit Automakers Take $50 Billion Hit as EV Bubble Bursts: The Big Three face massive write-downs as EV demand collapses and companies redirect investment back to gas engines. (Wall Street Journal)

• Bitcoin’s plunge should end the hype that it is digital gold: Bitcoin’s 35% decline versus gold’s 70% gain puts the lie to the “digital gold” narrative. (The Hill)

• Why voters hate Trump’s (pretty decent) economy: The data is solid. The vibes are atrocious. What gives? Despite solid economic metrics, voters remain sour on Trump’s economy because costs for essentials like housing and groceries never came down, leaving real people worse off despite the headlines. (Vox)  see also The Disappointment of Young Trump Voters: Americans under 30 swung to the right in 2024, but they’re not getting what they voted for. Young voters who backed Trump in 2024 are abandoning him at record rates, disillusioned by unmet economic promises. (The Atlantic)

• Workers Are Afraid AI Will Take Their Jobs. They’re Missing the Bigger Danger. It isn’t whether artificial intelligence is going to replace them. It’s who will control the knowledge that companies capture from their employees. The real threat isn’t job replacement—it’s that companies are capturing every keystroke and interaction you make, then using that knowledge to automate you or sell it to your competitors. (Wall Street Journal)

• Why it’s becoming so expensive to buy a car in America: Prices are at record highs. More loans are going bad. It’s not an easy time to afford a new car in America. New cars now average $50K with $800+ monthly payments, driven by SUV-heavy tastes, tech complexity, and tariffs that automakers are absorbing—pushing bad loans to levels not seen since 2008. (Washington Post)

• Apple Decouples From Nasdaq, Offering Alternative to AI-Fueled Volatility: It’s been nearly 20 years since Apple Inc. was this untethered from its tech peers, giving investors an appealing alternative to the artificial intelligence-fueled volatility that has gripped most other corners of the stock market in recent weeks. Apple’s 40-day correlation to the Nasdaq 100 Index tumbled to 0.21 last week, the lowest since 2006, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Apple’s stock becomes a haven from AI-stock whiplash, proving that sitting out the AI arms race is now a viable investment strategy. (Bloomberg)

• Why AI writing is so generic, boring, and dangerous: Semantic ablation: The AI identifies high-entropy clusters – the precise points where unique insights and “blood” reside – and systematically replaces them with the most probable, generic token sequences. What began as a jagged, precise Romanesque structure of stone is eroded into a polished, Baroque plastic shell: it looks “clean” to the casual eye, but its structural integrity – its “ciccia” – has been ablated to favor a hollow, frictionless aesthetic. When AI “refines” your writing, it’s not improving it—it’s erasing the rare, precise ideas and replacing them with statistical averages, stripping nuance and context in ways that spread misinformation. (The Register)

• The Republican Governor Getting Under Trump’s Skin: Oklahoma’s Kevin Stitt has weathered criticism from Trump ahead of a meeting of governors at the White House this week. The Republican chair of the National Governors Association, walked a tightrope defending Democratic governors’ invitation rights—and Trump wasn’t happy about it. (Wall Street Journal)

• Brooke Shields on Style, the New “Sex Sells,” and Returning to the Calvin Klein Fold: Forty years after those jeans ads, Shields is back with Calvin Klein — this time on her own terms, with thoughts on how sex in advertising has evolved. (Vanity Fair)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Hilary Allen, Professor of Law at the American University Washington College of Law. She specializes in financial regulation, banking law, securities regulation, and technology law, with a particular focus on how new financial technologies like fintech, crypto, and AI intersect with financial stability and public policy.

 

Complete History of 2s/10s Yield Curve Inversions (1976–2026)

Source: Eco3min

 

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The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

IEA Chief Warns Fracturing Global Order Is Splintering Energy Policy

By Irina Slav of OilPrice.com

A fracturing in the “global order” is threatening the harmony in energy policies, the head of the International Energy Agency has warned.

“We see a fracturing in the global political order in general, and there are, of course, reflections of that on the energy scene. Different countries are choosing different paths in terms of energy and climate change,” Birol told the Financial Times in an interview.

The warning follows the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s removal of the so-called endangerment finding, which served as the basis for climate change-focused policies passed in significant numbers during the Biden administration.

The finding stipulated that carbon dioxide, methane, and four other gases were harmful to people’s health and well-being.

This was the latest move by the Trump administration to dismantle Biden’s climate regulations and legislation as it prioritizes energy security—and energy dominance—over emission reduction.

Yet even the European Union, which consistently states emission reduction is still priority number-one, has been walking back some of its new regulations and commitments, under pressure from the business world, which has been bearing the cost of those commitments, alongside consumers.

The 2035 ban on internal combustion engine cars, for instance, has been renegotiated and is no longer a done deal, and now the authorities in Brussels are mulling over ways to reduce energy costs for industrial consumers in a bid to prevent the complete deindustrialization of the bloc.

A revision of emission permit trading is also on the agenda, with the chemicals industry calling for an urgent revamp of the system and a cancellation of the planned phaseout of free carbon permits.

Climate change was “moving down the international policy agenda,” Birol said this week, summarizing the latest trends in energy policies.

That move down the agenda has even reached China, which this year reduced subsidies for electric vehicles, which immediately affected sales, leading to a 20% monthly drop.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 06:30

Waste Piles Up In Cuba, Blackouts Worsen, As Lavrov Pleads To US For 'Brotherly Nation'

Speaking to reporters early this week, President Trump touted his tightened embargo on Cuba, pointing to moves to choke off Venezuelan oil flows and pressure Mexico to halt crude exports to the island - steps that have triggered acute fuel shortages and near total airline stoppages at Havana's main international airport.

"Cuba is right now a failed nation, and they don’t even have jet fuel for airplanes to take off, clogging up their runway," Trump said aboard Air Force One. Trash is also piling up across cities in neighborhoods, as there's literally not enough gas to power the trucks.

Trump added that his administration is engaged in discussions with Cuban officials, who are feeling the pressure. However, a recent report in Drop Site News has alleged that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is blocking those contacts while telling the president they are underway.

via Associated Press

Below is the heart of what was reported last week in Drop Site:

When it comes to Trump’s claims of those talks, it turns out he isn’t lying. Instead, sources tell Drop Site, he’s being lied to. “He’s saying that because that’s what Marco is telling him,” said a senior Trump official, referring to an internal effort by Secretary of State Marco Rubio to make Trump believe that the U.S. and Cuba are engaged in serious negotiations without ever doing so. The idea, the source said, is that in a few weeks or months, Rubio will be able to claim that the talks were futile because of Cuban intransigence. With diplomatic off-ramps being blocked, this would make Rubio’s vision of regime change the only path forward for an administration loath to reverse course on anything.

Asked about the fact that Rubio is misleading Trump about talks that aren’t going on, the State Department’s press office stood by the claim that such negotiations are indeed happening, forwarding along comment from an administration official: “As the President stated, we are talking to Cuba, whose leaders should make a deal. Cuba is a failing nation whose rulers have had a major setback with the loss of support from Venezuela and with Mexico ceasing to send them oil.” The statement offered no evidence the talks are taking place, named no officials participating, no dates of any meetings, nor did it identify a location where the supposed talks are happening.

But it's clear that Cuba is in a very tight spot, after US accomplished Maduro's overthrow nearby, and as the Pentagon's military might is now threatening Iran in similar fashion. Cuba has few allies left standing, with one big exception.

Russia is urging that the United States abandon its naval blockade on the communist-run island, stressing that more room must be given for legitimate negotiations.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told his Cuban counterpart Bruno Rodriguez on Wednesday that Cuba is "a brotherly nation" - according to Reuters.

The Cuban FM visited Moscow Wednesday. This as blackouts and severe fuel shortages have only been compounded by the US oil emargo.

"Together with most members of the international community, we call on the United States to show common sense and responsibility and refrain from plans for a naval blockade of the Island of Freedom," said Lavrov. "We categorically reject the unfounded accusations against Russia and Cuba and our cooperation, which allegedly pose a threat to the interests of the United States or anyone else."

Washington has indeed been hyping Cuba as a major threat, which going all the way back the Cold War has been brought to its knees after decades of sanctions. US officials have long warned of Russian and Chinese geostrategic and military inroads into America's backyard via Cuba. Moscow is flatly denying that this is a reality, however.

Meanwhile, the embargo of the island is unleashing another big problem for the population: "The United States-imposed fuel crisis in Cuba is also turning into a waste and health crisis, as many collection trucks have been left with empty fuel tanks, causing refuse to pile up on the streets of the capital, Havana, and other cities and towns," Al Jazeera reports.

Cuba's fuel crisis has become a waste crisis as many garbage trucks don't have enough gas to pick up rubbish which is piling up on Havana’s street corners https://t.co/AQ50L5j9KG pic.twitter.com/3BhugSOcJJ

— Reuters (@Reuters) February 16, 2026

"Only 44 of Havana’s 106 rubbish trucks have been able to keep operating due to the fuel shortages, slowing rubbish collection, as waste piles up on Havana’s street corners, the Reuters news agency reported on Monday, citing state-run news outlet Cubadebate," the outlet details.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 05:45

UK Ad Banned For Showing Black Harasser; Multiple Ads With White Harassers Were Just Fine

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In a glaring display of selective outrage, Transport for London (TfL) has yanked an advert depicting a black teenager harassing a white girl on a bus – all because of a single complaint crying “racial stereotypes.” Meanwhile, multiple past ads, all featuring white men as the aggressors, were approved, exposing the double standards that shield uncomfortable realities from public view.

The controversial ad was part of TfL’s “Act Like a Friend” campaign, aimed at encouraging bystanders to intervene in cases of sexual harassment or ‘hate crimes’ on public transport.

In the short clip, a black teenage boy verbally harasses a young white girl, with his white friend sitting nearby, effectively boxing her in. But according to the Advertising Standards Authority (ASA), this portrayal – when viewed in isolation – “reinforced a negative racial stereotype” associating black males with threatening behavior.

The local government body “Transport for London” has banned an advert showing a black man harrassing a white girl on bus for 'reinforcing negative racial stereotypes'

?? pic.twitter.com/oNQ1D6G8fH

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) February 18, 2026

The ASA’s ruling came after just one complaint, deeming the ad “irresponsible” and likely to cause “serious offence.”

They stated: “We understood there was a negative racial stereotype based on the association between black males, including teenagers, and threatening behaviour. […] The ad, when seen in isolation, had the effect of perpetuating a negative racial stereotype about black men as perpetrators of threatening behaviour.”

TfL was ordered to ensure future ads avoid such “harmful stereotypes.”

…the BBC is so terrified of it’s own shadow it shows a bus instead of an image of the ad. So here it is… pic.twitter.com/kddnOYeWUr

— Timor Maslow (@ThePGTipschimp) February 18, 2026

TfL even defended the campaign, noting it featured a diverse range of scenarios to reflect London’s population. Other cut-downs included a white male committing a hate crime against a black woman and another white male targeting a white male victim.

Ah yes, but any instance of a black person being the aggressor must be purged. That is not allowed, because clearly it NEVER happens in London and it’s racist. OK?

In Britain it is now functionally illegal to show anyone but a white man committing harassment. https://t.co/F37aZYtc6V

— Tom Jones (@93vintagejones) February 18, 2026

TFL ADVERT SHOWING BLACK MAN HARASSING A WHITE GIRL ON A BUS HAS BEEN BANNED

Transport for London have pulled the ad for reinforcing 'negative racial stereotypes'. The Facebook ad was binned after just 1 complaint.

We can't have any adverts that depict real life can we? pic.twitter.com/NmViMulQbP

— James Goddard (@JamesPGoddard90) February 18, 2026

TfL issued a an apology, with a spokeswoman remarking “Our aim is to ensure that our advertising reflects London’s diverse population and does not perpetuate any stereotypes. […] We’re sorry that this social media advert […] falls below our usual high standards when viewed in isolation.”

Of course, similar government anti-harassment ads have repeatedly cast white men as the sole perpetrators, with diverse victims – and that seems to be just fine.

In this government anti-harassment ad, all the perpetrators are White, and all the victims are diverse.

Media regularly portrays White people as the problem.

This is blatant anti-White racism, and it’s completely unacceptable. pic.twitter.com/clYytRW8gn

— Taya (@travelingflying) February 16, 2026

White villains are fair game, but anything else gets labeled a “negative racial stereotype.”

Ah, didn't they know you're only allow to show White men in negative roles in adverts? pic.twitter.com/YkjcW61K8A

— Ryan. (@Jimmy_Sprocket) February 18, 2026

They banned the most realistic commercial EVER. https://t.co/lsWMv9QWCV

— Pol Atreides (@Aliathewhite) February 18, 2026

Why are only white British people allowed to be the baddies? https://t.co/cPS29Qec1m

— Neil O'Brien (@NeilDotObrien) February 18, 2026

So you can’t use black people in an ad about harassment but you can use white people, as we’ve seen in multiple adverts by TFL.

This decision is literally racist. pic.twitter.com/0JUEFRVgCl

— Alex Armstrong (@Alexarmstrong) February 18, 2026

This episode underscores the woke stranglehold on media and advertising. In a city where harassment reports surge amid unchecked borders, honest campaigns should be encouraged, not censored. The left’s obsession with “equity” blinds them to actual threats, leaving women – especially native Brits – more vulnerable.

TfL’s quick capitulation to one complaint shows how easily truth is suppressed. If ads with white harassers face no backlash, why the uproar here? It’s a clear case of protecting narratives over people.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 05:00

Beijing Blasts Trump After US Releases New Details On Alleged 2020 Chinese Nuclear Test

Update: Despite the Lunar New Year holiday, Beijing has made it known it is not best pleased with Washington digging up Nuke blasts from the past.

Issuing a statement via state mouthpiece (@HuXijin_GT), the CCP suggested an ulterior motive for the timing of this announcement:

"Trump is eager to resume nuclear testing and needs a plausible reason, and accusing China of conducting nuclear tests is the perfect pretext.

Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Yeaw stated on Tuesday that the US is prepared to conduct low-yield nuclear tests in response to alleged secret nuclear tests by China and Russia.

The US is being far too hasty; having just fabricated rumors that China conducted an explosive nuclear test nearly six years ago, they are already announcing their own low-yield nuclear test.

Washington's motives for spreading these rumors are too clear; they can't even be bothered to feign it."

Hard to disagree with the latter point.

*  *  *

As Kimberley Hayek detailed earlier via The Epoch Times, a senior State Department official released additional evidence Tuesday in support of U.S. allegations that China conducted an underground nuclear test in June 2020, as global arms control frameworks unravel.

Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Yeaw, while speaking to a Hudson Institute meeting, discussed data from a remote seismic station in Kazakhstan that recorded a magnitude 2.75 “explosion” approximately 450 miles from China’s Lop Nur test grounds on June 22, 2020.

“I’ve looked at additional data since then. There is very little possibility I would say that it is anything but an explosion, a singular explosion,” Yeaw said, underscoring that the data were not consistent with blasts from mining.

“It’s also entirely not consistent with an earthquake,” said Yeaw, a former intelligence analyst and defense official who holds a doctorate in nuclear engineering. “It is ... what you would expect with a nuclear explosive test.”

Yeaw argued that China tried to hide the event through decoupling, detonating the device in a spacious underground cavity to diminish seismic waves.

Under Secretary of State for Arms Control Thomas DiNanno earlier this month accused China of performing such secretive nuclear arms tests and implementing measures to restrict seismic evidence.

“Today, I can reveal that the U.S. Government is aware that China has conducted nuclear explosive tests, including preparing for tests with designated yields in the hundreds of tons,” DiNanno said.

These claims back up Yeaw’s assertions of concealment tactics.

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, which monitors global explosions, noted that available data do not allow for firm conclusions.

Executive Secretary Robert Floyd said in a statement that the seismic monitoring station in Kazakhstan captured “two very small seismic events” 12 seconds apart on June 22, 2020.

The organization’s network detects events equivalent to 551 tons (500 metric tons) of TNT or more, according to Floyd.

“These two events were far below that level,” Floyd said. “As a result, with this data alone, it is not possible to assess the cause of these events with confidence.”

China, a signatory to the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty but not a ratifier, rejected the initial U.S. accusation at an international conference this month. Beijing’s last acknowledged underground test occurred in 1996.

The United States, which also signed but did not ratify the treaty, is legally bound to its terms under international norms. America’s final underground test was in 1992, with subsequent reliance on sophisticated simulations and supercomputers for warhead maintenance.

President Donald Trump recently called on China to take part in trilateral talks with Russia to support the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which ended Feb. 5.

China refused the invitation, arguing that its arsenal is far smaller than those of the United States and Russia. The Pentagon estimates China’s current operational warheads at more than 600. The stockpile is expected to exceed 1,000 by 2030.

The Federation of American Scientists, an organization working to minimize the risks of nuclear threats, tracks Russia as currently having 5,459 warheads, while the United States has 5,177.

The New START accord expiration removes caps on deployed strategic warheads and delivery vehicles, potentially accelerating buildups. Russia and the United States said they would informally observe limits.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 04:15

Chinese Journalist Who Exposed CCP’s Labor Camp Abuses Still In Custody in Beijing

Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Chinese journalist whose work exposed human rights abuses committed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been detained in Beijing for more than 100 days.

Independent journalist and photographer Du Bin in an undated photo. Song Pi-lung/The Epoch Times

Du Bin, 54, was formally arrested in November last year, according to people familiar with the matter who requested anonymity out of fear of reprisal. His case has been transferred to the procuratorate for examination and prosecution as of late January, the sources told The Epoch Times.

Du has been held at Shunyi Detention Center in Beijing since October, when he was taken by police from his residence, according to his sister and rights groups.

Authorities told his sister at the time that Du was detained under suspension for “picking quarrels and provoking trouble.” The vaguely worded charge is often used by the regime to target dissidents and human rights advocates.

Authorities are now pursuing a new charge that may “involve state leaders” after failing to find sufficient evidence to support the initial charge, according to people familiar with the matter.

Details about Du’s case, including what led to his arrest, remain unclear, with authorities citing “state secrecy” as the reason for refusing to provide information to his lawyer.

As a photographer and writer focused on uncovering the history that Beijing seeks to conceal, Du has been targeted by authorities for more than a decade, but this was the first time he had been formally arrested.

Du was taken into custody for 37 days in 2013. His friends told Amnesty International at the time that Du’s detention might have been linked to a documentary exposing the abuses women faced at Masanjia Labor Camp.

Located in the northern Chinese city of Shenyang, the detention facility is notorious for its horrific treatment of female detainees, especially those who refuse to renounce their faith in Falun Gong, also known as Falun Dafa.

The spiritual discipline—featuring meditative exercises and moral teachings centered on truthfulness, compassion, and forbearance—has faced brutal persecution since 1999, when the CCP deemed the practice’s surging popularity a threat to its authority. Torture and abuse are part of the ongoing campaign to wipe out Falun Gong, which had attracted an estimated 70 million to 100 million practitioners in China by the late 1990s.

In two books released in Hong Kong in 2014, Du detailed former inmates’ accounts of torture by Masanjia guards, including shocking female Falun Gong practitioners’ genitalia with electric batons and stripping practitioners naked and locking them up in the cells of male prisoners.

Months after his release in 2013, Du was asked in an interview why he chose to write about Falun Gong, one that he himself acknowledged as the most sensitive topic in China.

“We are all human,” he told The Epoch Times in December 2014. “Using such inhuman methods against others is something I can never accept.”

Du Bin holds a laptop showing the gate to Masanjia Labor Camp at an event in Hong Kong on April 27, 2013. Pan Zaishu/The Epoch Times

In December 2020, days before his historical book “Red Terror: Lenin’s Communist Experiment” was set to be published in Taiwan, Du was arrested by Beijing police, again for “picking quarrels and provoking trouble.” He was released after 37 days in detention.

‘Growing Intolerance’

Independent journalists and writers such as Du have endured mounting pressure in recent years as the CCP deepens its grip on society.

In 2025, Beijing once again led the world in the number of reporters imprisoned, the Committee to Protect Journalists stated in its latest annual report, released last month. It marked the third consecutive year that the regime was given the title of “the world’s worst jailer of journalists.”

On Feb. 9, a Hong Kong court handed down a 20-year prison term to Jimmy Lai, founder of a now-shuttered newspaper known for its critical coverage of the CCP, under a Beijing-imposed “national security” law. The court also gave heavy sentences to six former Apple Daily employees on national security charges.

In mainland China, authorities in Sichuan Province recently detained two investigative journalists who wrote about corruption by local Party officials, according to Reporters Without Borders.

International human rights groups have denounced the harassment campaign against Du and called for his immediate release.

“The international community must step up pressure on Beijing to secure Du’s release, along with that of all other journalists and press freedom defenders detained in China,” Antoine Bernard, director for advocacy and assistance at Reporters Without Borders, said in a December 2025 statement.

Human Rights Watch, in a statement following Du’s arrest, said the charge against Du highlighted “the growing intolerance for dissent” under Xi Jinping, the Party’s top leader.

A man holds a poster of the famous “Tank Man” facing Chinese military tanks at Tiananmen Square on June 5, 1989, during a candlelight vigil in Victoria Park in Hong Kong on June 4, 2020. Anthony/AFP via Getty Images

Du is also a photographer who once contributed to international media outlets, including The New York Times. But he was forced to stop after authorities denied him a work permit over his books.

His work includes “Tiananmen Massacre,” which compiles firsthand accounts of the night of June 3–4, 1989, when CCP leaders deployed troops and tanks to suppress unarmed pro-democracy students calling for political reform. That event remains one of the most heavily censored topics in China today.

In an interview with The Epoch Times after his second release, Du appeared calm and undeterred.

“I’m not pessimistic, nor am I afraid,” he said in January 2021, “because my work is based on actual events—all I’ve done is document them.”

Xin Ling and Gu Xiaohua contributed to this report. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 23:25

Chinese Journalist Who Exposed CCP’s Labor Camp Abuses Still In Custody in Beijing

Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Chinese journalist whose work exposed human rights abuses committed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been detained in Beijing for more than 100 days.

Independent journalist and photographer Du Bin in an undated photo. Song Pi-lung/The Epoch Times

Du Bin, 54, was formally arrested in November last year, according to people familiar with the matter who requested anonymity out of fear of reprisal. His case has been transferred to the procuratorate for examination and prosecution as of late January, the sources told The Epoch Times.

Du has been held at Shunyi Detention Center in Beijing since October, when he was taken by police from his residence, according to his sister and rights groups.

Authorities told his sister at the time that Du was detained under suspension for “picking quarrels and provoking trouble.” The vaguely worded charge is often used by the regime to target dissidents and human rights advocates.

Authorities are now pursuing a new charge that may “involve state leaders” after failing to find sufficient evidence to support the initial charge, according to people familiar with the matter.

Details about Du’s case, including what led to his arrest, remain unclear, with authorities citing “state secrecy” as the reason for refusing to provide information to his lawyer.

As a photographer and writer focused on uncovering the history that Beijing seeks to conceal, Du has been targeted by authorities for more than a decade, but this was the first time he had been formally arrested.

Du was taken into custody for 37 days in 2013. His friends told Amnesty International at the time that Du’s detention might have been linked to a documentary exposing the abuses women faced at Masanjia Labor Camp.

Located in the northern Chinese city of Shenyang, the detention facility is notorious for its horrific treatment of female detainees, especially those who refuse to renounce their faith in Falun Gong, also known as Falun Dafa.

The spiritual discipline—featuring meditative exercises and moral teachings centered on truthfulness, compassion, and forbearance—has faced brutal persecution since 1999, when the CCP deemed the practice’s surging popularity a threat to its authority. Torture and abuse are part of the ongoing campaign to wipe out Falun Gong, which had attracted an estimated 70 million to 100 million practitioners in China by the late 1990s.

In two books released in Hong Kong in 2014, Du detailed former inmates’ accounts of torture by Masanjia guards, including shocking female Falun Gong practitioners’ genitalia with electric batons and stripping practitioners naked and locking them up in the cells of male prisoners.

Months after his release in 2013, Du was asked in an interview why he chose to write about Falun Gong, one that he himself acknowledged as the most sensitive topic in China.

“We are all human,” he told The Epoch Times in December 2014. “Using such inhuman methods against others is something I can never accept.”

Du Bin holds a laptop showing the gate to Masanjia Labor Camp at an event in Hong Kong on April 27, 2013. Pan Zaishu/The Epoch Times

In December 2020, days before his historical book “Red Terror: Lenin’s Communist Experiment” was set to be published in Taiwan, Du was arrested by Beijing police, again for “picking quarrels and provoking trouble.” He was released after 37 days in detention.

‘Growing Intolerance’

Independent journalists and writers such as Du have endured mounting pressure in recent years as the CCP deepens its grip on society.

In 2025, Beijing once again led the world in the number of reporters imprisoned, the Committee to Protect Journalists stated in its latest annual report, released last month. It marked the third consecutive year that the regime was given the title of “the world’s worst jailer of journalists.”

On Feb. 9, a Hong Kong court handed down a 20-year prison term to Jimmy Lai, founder of a now-shuttered newspaper known for its critical coverage of the CCP, under a Beijing-imposed “national security” law. The court also gave heavy sentences to six former Apple Daily employees on national security charges.

In mainland China, authorities in Sichuan Province recently detained two investigative journalists who wrote about corruption by local Party officials, according to Reporters Without Borders.

International human rights groups have denounced the harassment campaign against Du and called for his immediate release.

“The international community must step up pressure on Beijing to secure Du’s release, along with that of all other journalists and press freedom defenders detained in China,” Antoine Bernard, director for advocacy and assistance at Reporters Without Borders, said in a December 2025 statement.

Human Rights Watch, in a statement following Du’s arrest, said the charge against Du highlighted “the growing intolerance for dissent” under Xi Jinping, the Party’s top leader.

A man holds a poster of the famous “Tank Man” facing Chinese military tanks at Tiananmen Square on June 5, 1989, during a candlelight vigil in Victoria Park in Hong Kong on June 4, 2020. Anthony/AFP via Getty Images

Du is also a photographer who once contributed to international media outlets, including The New York Times. But he was forced to stop after authorities denied him a work permit over his books.

His work includes “Tiananmen Massacre,” which compiles firsthand accounts of the night of June 3–4, 1989, when CCP leaders deployed troops and tanks to suppress unarmed pro-democracy students calling for political reform. That event remains one of the most heavily censored topics in China today.

In an interview with The Epoch Times after his second release, Du appeared calm and undeterred.

“I’m not pessimistic, nor am I afraid,” he said in January 2021, “because my work is based on actual events—all I’ve done is document them.”

Xin Ling and Gu Xiaohua contributed to this report. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 23:25

Wexner Says He Was 'Conned' By Epstein, Did 'Nothing Wrong'

After what must have been quite the prep session with lawyers, billionaire Les Wexner - who gave Jeffrey Epstein "about a billion dollars" in cash and assets - testified to the House Oversight Committee on Wednesday that he was "conned" by Epstein, and denied any wrongdoing.

Les Wexner denied any wrongdoing or knowledge of Jeffrey Epstein's crimes during testimony to House lawmakers.House Oversight and Government Reform Committee

In a prepared statement, the 88-year-old former L Brands (which owned Victoria's Secret) CEO said: 

Let me state from the start: I was naïve, foolish, and gullible to put any trust in Jeffrey Epstein. He was a con man. And while I was conned, I have done nothing wrong and have nothing to hide. I completely and irrevocably cut ties with Epstein nearly twenty years ago when I learned that he was an abuser, a crook, and a liar.

...

And, let me be crystal clear: I never witnessed nor had any knowledge of Epstein's criminal activity. I was never a participant nor coconspirator in any of Epstein's illegal activities. To my enormous embarrassment and regret, like many others, I was duped by a world-class con man. I cannot undo that part of my personal history even as I regret ever having met him.

350 attorneys charging $2000/hour drafted this. https://t.co/eT6TSa4PID

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 18, 2026

Yet many aren't buying it - including the FBI in 2019, which listed Wexner as a potential co-conspirator. 

Meanwhile Epstein wrote to Wexner in a draft email: "You and I had ‘gang stuff’ for over 15 years," adding "I owe a great debt to you, as frankly you owe to me" and that he had "no intention of divulging any confidence of ours."

Also strange:

Epstein’s note: “never ever did anything without informing Les [Wexner]”, “would never give him up”. Dershowitz: “don’t take deal”. Made around the time of victims’ discovery requests. Recall that Wexner began funding Epstein in ‘91, same year he founded pro-Israel “Mega Group”. https://t.co/ESzEQbck81 pic.twitter.com/wDF1Eit3Cl

— Good Pyre (@GoodPyre) February 6, 2026

After launching a business relationship in the 1980s, Wexner and Epstein formed 'a financial and personal bond that baffled longtime associates,' according to the New York Times. 

"I think we both possess the skill of seeing patterns," Wexner told Vanity Fair in 2003. "But Jeffrey sees patterns in politics and financial markets, and I see patterns in lifestyle and fashion trends." 

Wexner would go on to open doors for Epstein - who managed "many aspects of his financial life." 

By 1995, Epstein was a director of the Wexner Foundation and Wexner Heritage Foundation and president of Wexner’s N.A. Property Inc., which developed the Ohio town of New Albany, where Wexner lives. Epstein also was involved in Wexner’s superyacht, “Limitless,” attending meetings at the London studios of the firm that designed the vessel. -Bloomberg

Meanwhile, Epstein allegedly ran a 'casting couch' operation for aspiring Victoria's Secret models out of his Manhattan townhome whereby he would promise young girls jobs with the fashion company. 

Epstein "relied on ...[the] modeling business to source underage girls for sex," according to investigative reporter Conchita Sarnoff's new book "Trafficking." 

Model Elisabetta Tai

According to an account by Italian model Elisabetta Tai, Epstein tried to take advantage of the 21-year-old aspiring Victoria's Secret model in 2004 after she was promised that a meeting with a 'very important' man could land her a gig with the apparel company. 

Accuser Holds Wexner Responsible

In late 2019, a woman who says Jeffrey Epstein and his 'madam' Gislaine Maxwell sexually assaulted her holds Victoria's Secret billionaire Leslie Wexner "responsible for what happened to me," because she was staying on a property monitored by Wexner and his wife, and guarded by their security team, according to the Washington Post. 

Maria Farmer, now in her mid-50s, spoke with the Post in a series of interviews, telling the paper that she never met Leslie, and only spoke with Abigail via phone while at the property in New Albany, Ohio. 

In the summer of 1996, Farmer stayed at the country house that Wexner had deeded to Epstein four years earlier. While staying staying there, she was discouraged from going outside by Wexner's security, and that she was forced to jog inside the 10,600 square-foot house. 

"Where I stayed that summer, in that house and working in that garage, all of it was within view of the Wexner house," said Farmer. 

The house, although owned by Epstein at the time, was “effectively the guesthouse” for the main Wexner estate, and it was guarded only by Wexner personnel, according to a security officer involved with Wexner family security at the time, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he did not want to discuss clients publicly. The two homes are a half-mile apart. The grounds were monitored closely by guard dogs and their armed minders, this officer said. It was surrounded by Wexner’s land, according to property records.

“Anybody that was going to be coming on property had to be announced and allowed in by the Wexners,” added the officer. “Nobody had carte blanche to go in and off the property.”

...

Farmer, then 26, had just been invited to create two large-scale paintings for the upcoming film “As Good As It Gets,” starring Jack Nicholson. Epstein offered Farmer an unexpected location to do the work in the summer of 1996: an expansive country home in New Albany, Ohio, located amid 336 acres of land owned by Wexner and guarded in part by sheriff’s deputies employed by the longtime chief executive of Victoria’s Secret and The Limited.

It was there, Farmer said in an affidavit she submitted as part of an Epstein-related lawsuit, that she was molested by Epstein and his associate Ghislaine Maxwell. -Washington Post

"They asked me to come into a bedroom with them and then proceeded to sexually assault me against my will," said Farmer in her affidavit. 

In the affidavit, she says she “pleaded with” the security staff but was held against her wishes for 12 hours while waiting for her father to arrive. In the interview, she elaborated.

The morning of the day after the alleged assault, she said, Farmer spoke with Maxwell and Epstein. She told them she wanted to leave and hung up. Soon after, a Wexner security guard appeared at the house. “He said, ‘You aren’t leaving,’ ” Farmer recalled, “ ‘You’re not going anywhere.’ ” -Washington Post

Farmer's mother, father, sister and a friend have all separately stated that they recall a similar account from Maria in 1996. 

As the Post notes, "While Farmer’s allegations against Epstein have been widely documented, her experience in New Albany and the questions it raises about the Wexner family’s relationship with Epstein have been little explored." 

Stay tuned for updates...

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 23:22

Wexner Says He Was 'Conned' By Epstein, Did 'Nothing Wrong'

After what must have been quite the prep session with lawyers, billionaire Les Wexner - who gave Jeffrey Epstein "about a billion dollars" in cash and assets - testified to the House Oversight Committee on Wednesday that he was "conned" by Epstein, and denied any wrongdoing.

Les Wexner denied any wrongdoing or knowledge of Jeffrey Epstein's crimes during testimony to House lawmakers.House Oversight and Government Reform Committee

In a prepared statement, the 88-year-old former L Brands (which owned Victoria's Secret) CEO said: 

Let me state from the start: I was naïve, foolish, and gullible to put any trust in Jeffrey Epstein. He was a con man. And while I was conned, I have done nothing wrong and have nothing to hide. I completely and irrevocably cut ties with Epstein nearly twenty years ago when I learned that he was an abuser, a crook, and a liar.

...

And, let me be crystal clear: I never witnessed nor had any knowledge of Epstein's criminal activity. I was never a participant nor coconspirator in any of Epstein's illegal activities. To my enormous embarrassment and regret, like many others, I was duped by a world-class con man. I cannot undo that part of my personal history even as I regret ever having met him.

350 attorneys charging $2000/hour drafted this. https://t.co/eT6TSa4PID

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 18, 2026

Yet many aren't buying it - including the FBI in 2019, which listed Wexner as a potential co-conspirator. 

Meanwhile Epstein wrote to Wexner in a draft email: "You and I had ‘gang stuff’ for over 15 years," adding "I owe a great debt to you, as frankly you owe to me" and that he had "no intention of divulging any confidence of ours."

Also strange:

Epstein’s note: “never ever did anything without informing Les [Wexner]”, “would never give him up”. Dershowitz: “don’t take deal”. Made around the time of victims’ discovery requests. Recall that Wexner began funding Epstein in ‘91, same year he founded pro-Israel “Mega Group”. https://t.co/ESzEQbck81 pic.twitter.com/wDF1Eit3Cl

— Good Pyre (@GoodPyre) February 6, 2026

After launching a business relationship in the 1980s, Wexner and Epstein formed 'a financial and personal bond that baffled longtime associates,' according to the New York Times. 

"I think we both possess the skill of seeing patterns," Wexner told Vanity Fair in 2003. "But Jeffrey sees patterns in politics and financial markets, and I see patterns in lifestyle and fashion trends." 

Wexner would go on to open doors for Epstein - who managed "many aspects of his financial life." 

By 1995, Epstein was a director of the Wexner Foundation and Wexner Heritage Foundation and president of Wexner’s N.A. Property Inc., which developed the Ohio town of New Albany, where Wexner lives. Epstein also was involved in Wexner’s superyacht, “Limitless,” attending meetings at the London studios of the firm that designed the vessel. -Bloomberg

Meanwhile, Epstein allegedly ran a 'casting couch' operation for aspiring Victoria's Secret models out of his Manhattan townhome whereby he would promise young girls jobs with the fashion company. 

Epstein "relied on ...[the] modeling business to source underage girls for sex," according to investigative reporter Conchita Sarnoff's new book "Trafficking." 

Model Elisabetta Tai

According to an account by Italian model Elisabetta Tai, Epstein tried to take advantage of the 21-year-old aspiring Victoria's Secret model in 2004 after she was promised that a meeting with a 'very important' man could land her a gig with the apparel company. 

Accuser Holds Wexner Responsible

In late 2019, a woman who says Jeffrey Epstein and his 'madam' Gislaine Maxwell sexually assaulted her holds Victoria's Secret billionaire Leslie Wexner "responsible for what happened to me," because she was staying on a property monitored by Wexner and his wife, and guarded by their security team, according to the Washington Post. 

Maria Farmer, now in her mid-50s, spoke with the Post in a series of interviews, telling the paper that she never met Leslie, and only spoke with Abigail via phone while at the property in New Albany, Ohio. 

In the summer of 1996, Farmer stayed at the country house that Wexner had deeded to Epstein four years earlier. While staying staying there, she was discouraged from going outside by Wexner's security, and that she was forced to jog inside the 10,600 square-foot house. 

"Where I stayed that summer, in that house and working in that garage, all of it was within view of the Wexner house," said Farmer. 

The house, although owned by Epstein at the time, was “effectively the guesthouse” for the main Wexner estate, and it was guarded only by Wexner personnel, according to a security officer involved with Wexner family security at the time, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he did not want to discuss clients publicly. The two homes are a half-mile apart. The grounds were monitored closely by guard dogs and their armed minders, this officer said. It was surrounded by Wexner’s land, according to property records.

“Anybody that was going to be coming on property had to be announced and allowed in by the Wexners,” added the officer. “Nobody had carte blanche to go in and off the property.”

...

Farmer, then 26, had just been invited to create two large-scale paintings for the upcoming film “As Good As It Gets,” starring Jack Nicholson. Epstein offered Farmer an unexpected location to do the work in the summer of 1996: an expansive country home in New Albany, Ohio, located amid 336 acres of land owned by Wexner and guarded in part by sheriff’s deputies employed by the longtime chief executive of Victoria’s Secret and The Limited.

It was there, Farmer said in an affidavit she submitted as part of an Epstein-related lawsuit, that she was molested by Epstein and his associate Ghislaine Maxwell. -Washington Post

"They asked me to come into a bedroom with them and then proceeded to sexually assault me against my will," said Farmer in her affidavit. 

In the affidavit, she says she “pleaded with” the security staff but was held against her wishes for 12 hours while waiting for her father to arrive. In the interview, she elaborated.

The morning of the day after the alleged assault, she said, Farmer spoke with Maxwell and Epstein. She told them she wanted to leave and hung up. Soon after, a Wexner security guard appeared at the house. “He said, ‘You aren’t leaving,’ ” Farmer recalled, “ ‘You’re not going anywhere.’ ” -Washington Post

Farmer's mother, father, sister and a friend have all separately stated that they recall a similar account from Maria in 1996. 

As the Post notes, "While Farmer’s allegations against Epstein have been widely documented, her experience in New Albany and the questions it raises about the Wexner family’s relationship with Epstein have been little explored." 

Stay tuned for updates...

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 23:22