Trump Admin Launches $50 Billion Rural Health Transformation Program

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

The Trump administration plans to distribute between $147 million and $281 million to each U.S. state in 2026 through a widespread rural health program designed to provide better access to medical care in rural areas.

The effort, which is one aspect of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, earmarks $50 billion across five fiscal years, making available $10 billion annually from 2026 to 2030 to all 50 states. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Administrator Mehmet Oz revealed the plan Monday, underscoring its goal to reverse the trend of long-term declines in rural health metrics while avoiding building out costly new infrastructure.

“This is a massive effort to change the unfortunate reality that has overtaken rural healthcare in America, which is that your ZIP code has started to predict your life expectancy,” Oz told reporters. He said the money will also go toward other pilot projects across the country.

Administration officials said that half the funds will be divided evenly between the states, with the other $25 billion apportioned according to rural healthcare infrastructure, state-led reforms, and application-based proposals. Funds could be reclaimed if states fail to meet benchmarks or neglect their committed reforms.

“The purpose of this $50 billion investment in rural healthcare is not to pay off bills,” Oz said.

“The purpose of this $50 billion investment is to allow us to right-size the system and to deal with the fundamental hindrances of improvement in rural healthcare.”

The announcement comes as rural hospitals have been at the center of Medicaid overhaul discussions.

“We have an unstable market that is causing lots of potential peril to Americans who need our help the most,” Oz told reporters in June.

This rural push aligns with Trump’s fiscal 2026 “skinny budget“ for the Department of Health and Human Services, cutting discretionary spending by 33 percent to $80.4 billion and axing 20,000 jobs.

Those reforms combine multiple agencies into a new Administration for a Healthy America, which integrates rural programs and redirects any savings from the streamlining to HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s priorities, including environmental health, mental health services, and chronic disease prevention.

The administration has also highlighted $14 billion in identified Medicaid fraud, waste, and abuse through the Department of Government Efficiency, as highlighted by Oz earlier this year.

“There’s about $14 billion we’ve identified with DOGE, of folks who are duly enrolled wrongly in multiple states for Medicaid,” Oz told Fox News’s “Sunday Morning Futures” in May.

Complementary measures include agreements with nine pharmaceutical firms to cut drug costs and expanded coverage models for select weight-loss medications in a bid to help rural patients.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 13:45

"Massive Abuse": HUD Audit Flags $5B In Improper Housing Assistance During Biden's Term

A new report from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development has found that more than $5 billion in federal rental assistance during fiscal year 2024 went to potentially ineligible recipients, including nearly 30,000 deceased individuals and thousands of non-citizens, according to MSN and the NY Post.

The audit, conducted by HUD’s Office of the Chief Financial Officer, reviewed nearly $50 billion in housing aid and identified $5.8 billion — about 11% — as “questionable.” More than 200,000 tenants were flagged, including 29,715 listed as deceased, 9,472 non-citizens, and 165,393 households receiving payments above local eligibility limits, particularly in large metro areas such as New Orleans. Officials said suspicious payments appeared nationwide, with heavy concentrations in New York, California and Washington, DC.

“A massive abuse of taxpayer dollars not only occurred under President Biden’s watch, but was effectively incentivized by his administration’s failure to implement strong financial controls resulting in billions worth of potential improper payments,” HUD Secretary Scott Turner said. “HUD will continue investigating the shocking results and will take appropriate action to hold bad actors accountable.”

Marcia Fudge

The Post writes that the report faults federal directives that pushed funds out quickly “with minimal oversight,” while relying heavily on local housing authorities and contractors to verify eligibility. HUD said it is now reviewing funding for agencies involved and may suspend or revoke payments.

“HUD is implementing processes and procedures to revoke or pause funding as part of its efforts to hold bad actors accountable,” one official said. “Additionally, the Department could make criminal referrals and exercise other enforcement actions once it has confirmed fraud occurred.”

A HUD official also revealed that the department is implementing processes and procedures to revoke or pause funding as part of its accountability efforts. 

HUD disbursed just under $50 billion in federal rental assistance to non-federal entities (i.e., housing authorities, contract administrators, and landlords) during FY 2024, including more than $16 billion in Project-Based Rental Assistance (PBRA) and over $33 billion in Tenant-Based Rental Assistance (TBRA), serving more than four million households. This disbursement of funding design along with complex eligibility and program requirements, increased the risk of payment errors and highlights the necessity for more robust monitoring and verification tools for the rental assistance programs.

The directive from the Biden Administration to push funding out the door with minimal oversight and the design of HUD's rental assistance programs placed substantial trust and responsibility in these non-federal entities, such as housing authorities, contract administrators, and landlords, to accurately assess tenant eligibility for two of the most complex rental assistance programs. 

The report also accuses the Biden administration of not providing HUD “with effective tools, technology, or access to the evidence necessary to verify whether these entities were properly enforcing the intricate rules governing rental assistance.” 

The findings follow earlier warnings. A 2022 HUD Inspector General audit said the agency “needed significant improvement” in its antifraud systems and lacked clear procedures for reporting suspected fraud.

In February 2024, prosecutors charged 70 current and former New York City Housing Authority employees in what US Attorney Damian Williams called “the largest single-day bribery takedown in the history of the Justice Department,” involving millions in kickbacks and corrupt contracts. NYCHA, which receives billions in HUD funding annually, said: “NYCHA partners with law enforcement to root out the corruption that directly led to the 2024 arrests… Each of the 70 cases brought by DOI has led to a conviction.”

Former HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge and former Deputy Secretary Adrianne Todman did not respond to requests for comment.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 13:25

What Do The Top Search Trends Of 2025 Say About The Current State Of Our Society?

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

What do our Google searches tell us about ourselves?  I think that many of you will be quite surprised by what I have to share in this article.

 “Google’s Year in Search” for 2025 has been released, and it is a doozy.  The past 12 months have been so crazy, and the top search trends of 2025 certainly reflect that.

Let’s start with the top search trend.

“Charlie Kirk” is number one on the list, and his assassination completely shocked the nation.

But it certainly was not an isolated incident.

Political violence is on the rise in our society.  In fact, if President Trump had not moved his head slightly at just the right moment at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania last year, he would not be in the White House today.

Charlie Kirk was a prominent figure before his death, but after he died suddenly everyone knew who he was.

Unfortunately, I believe that we will see even more political violence in 2026.  There is just so much anger and frustration out there right now on all sides.

“KPop Demon Hunters” is number two on Google’s list, and that stunned me. According to Wikipedia, it is “a 2025 animated musical film from Sony Pictures Animation and Netflix about a K-pop girl group, HUNTR/X, who secretly fight demons while performing, facing off against a rival demon boy band called the Saja Boys”.

Needless to say, it is particularly popular among young people.

This year our society continued to be fascinated by entertainment that explores very dark themes, and that is quite alarming.

And we see this with the third item on the list as well.

According to Wikipedia, Labubu is “a popular line of collectible, mischievous-looking elf-like monster figures created by Hong Kong artist Kasing Lung, known for their large ears, sharp teeth, and scruffy appearance, sold primarily through blind boxes by the company Pop Mart, which has led to a global craze and high resale demand.”

The sharp teeth and bizarre eyes certainly make them look like monsters.

In the old days, kids would play with teddy bears and other stuffed animals.

But now kids want to play with creatures that look like they have been pulled straight out of a nightmare.

I don’t think that is a good thing.

The iPhone 17 came in at number four on the list, and that shouldn’t surprise anyone.

Most of us are so addicted to our phones, and I don’t think that is going to change any time soon.

The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” came in at number five in the list, the government shutdown came in at number eight in the list, and “tariffs” came in at number ten in the list.

I think that is quite appropriate, because this is a year when the news was so focused on political drama.

Donald Trump’s first year in office was an extremely busy one, and people all over the country were endlessly talking about it.

There are tens of millions of Americans that absolutely love Trump, and there are tens of millions of Americans that absolutely hate Trump.

Of course Donald Trump will continue to play a central role in our society for as long as he remains in the White House.

A new political star on the left made the list at number six.

New York elected a “democratic socialist” named Zohran Mamdani as their new mayor, and suddenly he has become a major national celebrity.

That is pretty remarkable considering the fact that he wasn’t even a U.S. citizen a decade ago.

“DeepSeek” came in at number seven on the list, and I was glad to see that a term associated with AI was represented.

For better or worse, AI is in the process of transforming virtually every area of our society.

Interestingly, the FIFA Club World Cup ranked number nine on the list.

I still don’t think that Chelsea deserved to win the final, but PSG just didn’t show up that day for some reason.

Personally, I was shocked that the Epstein files did not make the top ten, but it did rank number eight in “news searches”.

To me, the drama surrounding the Epstein files was perhaps the most important political story of the year.  It has dramatically shifted political opinion, and I think that much of the damage that has been done is permanent.

When they were finally released, they were so heavily redacted that they didn’t tell us much that we didn’t already know.

And now we are being told that they have discovered a million more documents that hopefully we will get to see eventually.

2025 has been so wild, and now 2026 is nearly upon us.

27 years ago, USA Today and Gallup asked Americans what they thought 2025 would be like…

In the year 1998, Bill Clinton was facing impeachment proceedings, “Titanic” was cleaning up at the Oscars and most households still had landline phones. Gallup and USA Today called up 1,055 Americans on those landlines and asked them for their best predictions about a year in the distant future: 2025.

It turns out that those that responded to the survey were quite accurate about certain things, but on other matters they were way off…

Some were surprisingly prescient. Most Americans predicted that, over the next 27 years, the country would have elected a Black president, gay marriages would be legal and commonplace and a “deadly new disease” would have emerged.

Most people in 1998 correctly doubted that space travel would be common for ordinary Americans or that alien life forms would have made contact.

Other predictions didn’t hold up as well. About two-thirds of Americans thought the country would have elected a female president by now. More than half expected a cure for cancer and 61% expected that “people will routinely live to be 100 years old.”

Wouldn’t it be nice if most people lived to be 100 years old?

Sadly, life expectancy in the U.S. has fallen to the lowest level since 1996.

The first half of this decade brought us the pandemic, several major wars, the AI revolution and an endless series of natural disasters.

But if you thought that was wild, just wait until you see what happens during the second half of this decade.

The pace of change is about to go into overdrive.

So buckle up and hold on tight, because things are about to start getting really, really crazy.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 13:05

DOJ Grants Antitrust Immunity To Nuclear Fuel Companies

The Department of Justice (DOJ) Antitrust Division recently authorized antitrust immunity to companies involved in the domestic nuclear fuel chain. 

Today the DOJ Antitrust Division helped deliver on the critical need to expand energy infrastructure to help America win the AI race.

The Division has approved a framework to encourage industry and government collaboration to strengthen our nuclear fuel supply chain pursuant to…

— Antitrust Division (@JusticeATR) December 16, 2025

Stemming from the set of nuclear industry Executive Orders (EOs) issued earlier this year on May 23rd, the Department of Energy (DoE) established the Nuclear Fuel Chain Defense Production Act (DPA) Consortium back in August to meet some of the goals directed by the EOs. The consortium has since been working “to develop plans of action to ensure that the nuclear fuel supply chain capacity for mining and milling, conversion, enrichment, deconversion, fabrication, recycling and reprocessing is available to enable the continued reliable operation of the nation’s reactors.”

After some initial hype following the consortium’s establishment, rumors kicked back up about the potential for the government building a Strategic Uranium Reserve (SUR). However, most of the interest in the consortium’s activities/goals fell off after the government shutdown delayed the first meetings of the new group.

Fast forward to last week when the DOJ completed the required justification for the US government to enter into agreements with companies involved in the nuclear fuel chain that would have otherwise been illegal under antitrust laws. The DOJ presented their findings on December 19th, stating “the purposes … of the DPA may not reasonably be achieved through a voluntary agreement having less anticompetitive effects or without any voluntary agreement. Given this finding, the proposed Voluntary Agreement may become effective”.

So, what next? Most likely, press releases will start coming out from fuel chain companies over the next few weeks as they sign agreements with the DoE for capacity expansions or offtake deals at the various stages. Here's some companies to keep an eye on:

• Uranium mining - UEC, EU, URG, and UUUU
• Uranium milling - UUUU, AEC, and UEC
• Uranium conversion - SOLS, SILXY, and UEC
• Uranium enrichment - LEU, NNE, SILXY, ASPI, and BWXT
• Fuel fabrication - CCJ, GEV, BWXT, OKLO, and ATI
• Recycling and reprocessing - OKLO, FLR, AMTM, and BWXT

There’s also a long list of Canadian- and Australian-owned uranium mining companies, large private enrichment corporations, and dozens of others that will likely be involved at the various stages, but the above tickers are the most likely publicly-traded participants.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 12:45

Ron Paul Praises Trump Taking A Step Toward Liberty

Authored by Ron Paul,

President Trump recently signed an executive order changing marijuana’s Controlled Substances Act classification from Schedule I to Schedule III.

Schedule I is supposed to include especially dangerous drugs that are likely to be abused and have no medical purpose.

Whatever one thinks of the wisdom and morality of using marijuana, the fact is it is less addictive, and quite possibly safer, than alcohol.

Many Americans who live in one of the 40 states that have legalized medicinal marijuana use it for a variety of ailments.

Reclassifying marijuana does not repeal federal laws criminalizing its use. The reclassifying does, though, facilitate research into marijuana’s medical benefits.

It also enables marijuana businesses that are legal under state laws to take ordinary deductions on their taxes. While President Trump’s executive order is a step forward, those who support advancing liberty must continue to press for repeal of all federal drug laws.

The Constitution does not give the federal government any authority to outlaw marijuana or any other “illicit” substance.

At least supporters of alcohol prohibition understood that a constitutional amendment was needed to impose a national ban on alcohol. The war on drugs has been a primary excuse for violations of liberties including unconstitutional searches and seizures, “no-knock raids,” bank reports to the federal government on those making large cash deposits, and draconian mandatory minimum sentences. The drug war has also been used to justify foreign interventions — such as President Trump’s current actions against Venezuela.

Defenders of the drug war say it is necessary because the drug trade is controlled by violent criminals — even though this is the inevitable result of outlawing a product people wish to consume. The most important reason to end the drug war is that government has no moral right to stop adults from engaging in a peaceful (even if unwise) behavior like smoking marijuana. Laws prohibiting drug use have no place in a free society. These laws are rooted in the idea that our rights are merely gifts from the government conditioned on our “good “behavior. A government that can stop people from smoking marijuana is a government that can also mandate what vaccines we receive and how our children are educated.

Of course, in a free society, an individual who uses drugs would be responsible for the consequences of his choices, and those who oppose drug use could exercise their right to try to persuade others to abstain from drug use.

When I campaigned to return to Congress in 1996, both Republicans (in the primary) and Democrats (in the general election) focused on attacking my position on drugs.

In response, I explained that the federal government has no authority to outlaw drugs and that the police state being built to stop drug use threatens all our liberty. The responsibility for combatting drug use belongs elsewhere, such as with churches and family members. I summed up my position as not pro-drug, but pro-liberty. In the end, I won that race. The people have been ahead of politicians in understanding the folly of the drug war.

All of us who value liberty must oppose the drug war. We should speak out for replacing various mandates and punishments of the drug war with increased respect for individual rights. We should also be steadfast that the end goal be a complete ending of the federal government’s drug prohibition.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 11:45

Gas Prices Drop For 5th Consecutive Week; Lowest NYE Level Since COVID

Authored by Rob Sabo via The Epoch Times,

Gas prices continued their sharp downward trend throughout December, falling by nearly 23 cents over the month to a national average of $2.75 per gallon on Dec. 29—the lowest level recorded since 2021, according to a report by fuel price comparison app GasBuddy.

The national average price of diesel fuel, meanwhile, was $3.52 per gallon, a dip of more than $0.05 from a week earlier, GasBuddy reported.

Increased domestic production, along with a late-year ramp-up in production by members of OPEC+, a coalition of oil-exporting nations, has led to increased domestic and global supply, despite ongoing sanctions against oil-rich countries such as Russia and Venezuela.

According to Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, the national average price for gasoline has declined in all but a handful of U.S. states.

“Oil prices have remained relatively low even amid the U.S. blockade on Venezuela’s oil exports,” De Haan said in a statement.

“With refineries running at seasonally high output and gasoline inventories building, most states—outside of price-cycling markets—have continued to see declines, with some stations in nearly a dozen states now dipping below the $2-per-gallon mark.”

He said the trend could continue for a while before prices ultimately bottom out, likely in January or February.

U.S. crude oil producers’ output of nearly 17 million barrels per day (bpd) for mid-December was about 12 percent higher than the 15.2 million bpd produced in late October, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported. Meanwhile, eight members of OPEC+ announced in October they would increase oil production by an additional 137,000 barrels per day beginning in December.

Global petroleum inventories rose on average by 1.8 million bpd in the second and third quarters of 2025, EIA analysts said. China accounted for about 1.1 billion barrels per day of the inventory growth.

However, the relief at the pump may be short-lived. The price of U.S. crude jumped by 2.1 percent during Dec. 29 trading to settle at just under $58 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, was up by 1.88 percent and finished the day’s session at $61.78 per barrel.

The GasBuddy report compiled data from more than 12 million price reports from more than 150,000 gas stations throughout the United States. Average gasoline prices were lowest in Oklahoma at $2.17 per gallon, followed by Colorado and Texas at $2.33 per gallon each. All three states had the lowest average prices for diesel fuel as well, at $2.92, $2.99, and $3.02, respectively.

Average prices for a gallon of gas were highest in Hawaii at $4.36 and California at $4.20. Diesel fuel was highest in both states at $5.16 and $4.88 per gallon, respectively.

Regionally, gas prices were highest across the West Coast at $3.76 per gallon for the week ending Dec. 22, EIA reported. Prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast region at $2.44.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 11:05

IRS CEO Says 94% Of Middle-Class Taxpayers Will See Tax Relief Next Year

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The CEO of the IRS said during an interview on Dec. 23 that 94 percent of middle-class Americans will see some form of tax relief next year.

The sign outside the Internal Revenue Service building in Washington. AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File

“You’re going to look at probably 94 percent-plus of middle-class Americans getting a boost, your tax rates coming down, and getting the benefit going forward,” said IRS CEO Frank Bisignano, who is also the commissioner of the Social Security Administration, during an interview with Fox Business.

He said that Social Security recipients will see “up to a $6,000 benefit as [the Trump administration is] committed to the benefits of Social Security not being taxed.”

Bisignano’s comments come after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett have both projected significant refunds in the 2026 tax year because of legislation that was signed into law over the summer by President Donald Trump.

Bisignano was named as the first CEO of the federal tax revenue agency, which is a position that the Trump administration created in October.

Trump also said in a year-end speech that many American families could save between $11,000 and $20,000 per year under the tax and spending package.

Hassett has been floated as a possible successor to current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

The Trump administration has been teasing proposals to address cost-of-living concerns, including tax refunds and dividend checks derived from tariffs. Since the elections last month, in which Democrats secured victories in several states and municipalities, Republicans have intensified their focus on the economy. During a recent speech, Trump unveiled a $1,776 bonus to U.S. troops.

Democrats, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), have been critical of the Trump administration’s economic policies, saying that the White House is out of touch.

In a Dec. 18 post on X, for example, the Democratic leader said that Trump “lives in a bubble completely disconnected from the reality everyday Americans are seeing and feeling” and that Americans “are feeling squeezed harder and harder every day.”

Meanwhile, the administration received a boost on Dec. 17 as the Labor Department released its consumer price index report for November, showing an overall drop in inflation. And the U.S. gross domestic product grew at a rapid rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025, according to a report issued on Dec. 23 by the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Next year’s tax-filing season starts Jan. 28, 2026, and ends on April 15, 2026.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 10:30

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in October

Excerpt:

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices). August closing prices include some contracts signed in June, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The National index increased 0.37% month-over-month (MoM). This is the 3rd consecutive month with a MoM increase seasonally adjusted that followed 5 consecutive months with a MoM decline.

There is much more in the article.

Jennings: "Until Somebody In Power Goes To Jail", Blue State Fraud Won't Stop

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In a heated CNN clash, conservative commentator Scott Jennings called out the lack of real accountability in Democrat-run states, demanding elected officials face consequences for enabling billion-dollar scams.

Jennings addressed the rot in blue states where massive fraud schemes have flourished under lax oversight. Facing pushback from host Abby Phillip, Jennings insisted that prosecuting small-time operators isn’t enough—real change demands jailing those at the top who allowed it all to happen.

The discussion centered on the sprawling welfare fraud in Minnesota, but Jennings expanded it to a nationwide indictment of blue state governance. When Phillip defended ongoing probes, saying, “This idea that nothing is being done, that no one is being held accountable, that this was just left to run rampant, is completely false,” Jennings countered sharply.

This was another watershed moment on CNN.

Scott Jennings used his voice to speak for the millions of Americans fed up with fraud running roughshod in blue states across the country.

Abby Phillip tried to push her narrative about the Somali fraud scheme in Minnesota…but… pic.twitter.com/MfN93LqyOt

— Overton (@overton_news) December 30, 2025

“Well, some people have been held accountable. But I think in the opinion of most Republicans, not nearly enough,” he replied.

He then delivered the core demand: “And truthfully, until somebody in a position of power, until somebody in a position in Minnesota, elected position, who was in charge of administering this or having some oversight over it, goes to jail, it’s honestly never going to stop.”

Jennings broadened the scope: “Look what’s going on in blue states across the country: 9 billion in Minnesota, 70 billion in fraud in California, cooking the crime stats in Washington, D.C.”

Driving the point home, he asked, “When is someone in a position of power going to go to jail for the rampant fraud?” and added, “You can put all the low-level people in jail you want, but until somebody in charge goes to jail, it won’t stop!”

The scandal Jennings spotlighted involves Somali-led operations in Minneapolis, where billions in federal welfare funds—intended for children and the vulnerable—were siphoned through fake daycares and shell companies.

Estimates peg the theft at $9 billion in Minnesota alone, part of a larger pattern tied to unvetted immigration and weak enforcement. The Trump administration’s DOJ is now intensifying efforts, with door-to-door probes by Homeland Security targeting suspected sites.

DHS is on the ground in Minneapolis, going DOOR TO DOOR at suspected fraud sites.

The American people deserve answers on how their taxpayer money is being used and ARRESTS when abuse is found. Under the leadership of @Sec_Noem, DHS is working to deliver results. pic.twitter.com/7XtRflv36b

— Homeland Security (@DHSgov) December 29, 2025

This surge follows viral exposures, including a video by Youtuber Nick Shirley touring dozens of Somali-run daycares implicated in the schemes.

Attorney General Pam Bondi has charged 98 individuals in Minnesota fraud cases, with over 60 convictions. More probes are underway, signaling an end to the free pass for blue state elites.

This isn’t isolated—it’s the byproduct of years of open borders flooding communities with unassimilated groups, creating ripe ground for abuse. As Jennings laid bare, without holding powerful Democrats accountable, the cycle of theft from American taxpayers continues.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 09:50

CIA Drone Carried Out First Known Land Strike On Venezuela 

The CIA is reported to have carried out a bombing operation within Venezuelan territory, CNN and The New York Times report in follow-up to President Trump touting that the US had knocked out "a big facility".

CNN while citing unnamed sources, reports that the CIA conducted a drone strike on a remote dock along Venezuela's coastline, after the US suspected the site was being used to store and transport illegal drugs, and which were supposedly bound for America.

Illustrative: MQ-9 Reaper Drone

Reports indicate the location was unoccupied at the time of the strike, which occurred earlier this month. The New York Times published a similar account based on anonymous sources, specifying that the operation took place last Wednesday.

As we detailed, President Trump had on Friday in a radio interview disclosed something which missed the attention of the US and global media. He let slip that a large land site had been knocked out by a strike from US forces in the Caribbean.

Trump may have actually assumed the attack which he disclosed publicly for the first time was already being reported on, but it had not. He was being interviewed by John Catsimatidis, the Republican billionaire who owns the WABC radio station in New York on his The Cats & Cosby Show, and the two were talking about the Venezuela campaign. 

"They have a big plant or a big facility where the ships come from," Trump said, though he did not explicitly identify the exact location or even country attacked. "Two nights ago we knocked that out."

Interestingly, the remarks generated almost no headlines for much of that weekend. But by Monday he expanded on those remarks during a press conference, saying the target was located on Venezuela's coast and that a "major explosion" occurred at a dock where boats were supposedly loaded with drugs.

"There was a major explosion in the dock area where they load the boats up with drugs," he told reporters at Mar-a-Lago, his club and residence in Florida.

"They load the boats up with drugs. So we hit all the boats, and now we hit the area. It’s the implementation area, that’s where they implement, and that is no longer around."

But even after this, neither CIA, nor White House, nor Pentagon would comment. Even more strange was that Venezuelan officials themselves have also remained silent, issuing no public statements regarding the alleged attack. It is perhaps the case they don't want the population to panic, or else don't want to give acknowledgement of a successful land strike by Washington.

Speculation has persisted an effort to identify which facility was hit and what damage was done. Some analysts have highlighted a 'mystery' explosion at an industrial zone in San Francisco municipality, Zulia state, given the timing fits (Wednesday, Dec. 24).

San Francisco Venezuela's second largest city, in the northwest corner of the country, and near the coast. However, local reports also suggest the likelihood the fire was sparked by an electrical accident.

But it is also clear the CIA is active in Venezuela, given White House authorized lethal CIA missions targeting the Latin American country in October - though these may have been occurring long before then.

Venezuela’s Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López:

‘We know that the CIA is present in Venezuela’ pic.twitter.com/mzZGs67Mvd

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) October 23, 2025

The American president has also ordered a naval blockade targeting Venezuelan oil exports, with US forces already having seized two tankers transporting Venezuelan crude in international waters, while a third ship reportedly avoided boarding and continued into the Atlantic.

The Pentagon is seeking to enforce what has been described as a "quarantine" of Venezuelan oil over the coming months to further strain the country's economy. Amid all of this, there's a likelihood of yet more land strikes to come.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 09:35

 

 

 

“The writing has “been on the wall for well over a year now” that SiriusXM wouldn’t be renewing Howard Stern’s colossal contract — and his employees have been taking advantage, “coasting” on the clock and trolling for new gigs, two current show staffers told The Post.”   –New York Post

 

Let’s delve into an example of declarative reporting predicting an upcoming event that ended up being completely, laughably wrong. You may have missed this one during the dog days of summer.

Supermarket tabloid The U.S. Sun reported on August 4th that “The iconic Howard Stern Show on SiriusXM is set to be canceled after a stunning 20-year run, [unnamed] sources exclusively told The U.S. Sun.” Four days later, The New York Post confidently reported that the Howard Stern Show’s 19-year run at SiriusXM was coming to its final and ignominious end.

Both papers, not coincidentally, are owned by the Murdoch family’s NewsCorp. Each relied on unnamed “longtime staffers” as sources. Both reported Stern’s audience had dwindled “from 20 million a day to 125,000” – if true, a 99.38% drop in listeners. Both misled their readers.

Data from Sirius (and elsewhere) puts Stern’s audience anywhere from 5x to 10x what was misreported –a substantial drop that requires no additional exaggeration. The more complete context would have explained the broader drop in all of SiriusXM audience numbers, and how its time-shifting and streaming app has affected broadcast numbers.

But the big error was simply the declaration that Sirius was finished with Stern. The satellite company just renewed his contract for another 3 years.

Instead, anonymous sources said things like: “Most of us have been coasting at work the last year,” because “we know he’s retiring, whether by choice or because he’s forced out…”

Perhaps motivated reasoning was at play at the Murdoch-owned properties: “The looming end of the once mighty radio personality comes after a sharp change in Stern’s politics.”2

I don’t know Sun/Post reported this in the manner they did; I only know they got the story wrong while engaging in poor journalistic practices.

Anonymous quotes are the stock-in-trade of gossip columnists; it would not surprise me to learn these quotes were entirely fabricated.1 Even with journalists and outlets with a sterling reputation for fairness and objectivity, you should treat any anonymous source with the utmost caution.

~~~

Besides Sirius XM’s stock price, what does Howard Stern’s contract have to do with how we view coverage of markets or the economy?

Surprisingly, a lot. The parallels are there when you see people talking about things they don’t or can’t know about specific future events. The details in Stern’s negotiations are a minor example. There were a dozenish people – lawyers, agents, managers, corporate execs, perhaps board members – involved in the Stern-Sirius contract negotiations.3

Note that a lack of accurate inside dope did not stop reporting in an authoritative voice; was it trashing a political opponent that was so attractive? Might it have ironically been the broad interest in Stern’s activities?

This is the time of year when people confidently talk about things they cannot know. Turn on the TV, browse a website, read a newspaper, magazine, or Substack, and you will see authoritative predictions about what will happen next year, based on what is either unknown or unknowable. A lack of insight or knowledge doesn’t stop the speaker or writer from discussing a topic with great authority and conviction. Expressing doubt, acknowledging multiple possible outcomes, or admitting what you don’t know is considered unacceptable.

This is true regardless of whether the expression is opinion, commentary, speculation, or even wild guesses. Human nature favors precise errors over ambiguous accuracy. This is the default standard—lots of self-assured cockiness and very little humility. History informs us that this approach is flawed when talking about the inherently unknown and unknowable future, especially when capital is at risk.

Media malpractice is everywhere, but this one was exceptionally egregious. The Stern example goes beyond proof of how little we know about what the future holds; it shows how it manifests in supposedly authoritative sources.

We put a lot at risk when we ignore our own lack of knowledge and blind spots. This is especially true when we do not know what we do not know…

 

 

Previously:
“Nobody Knows Anything,” Wall Street Strategist Edition (January 2, 2025)

Nobody Knows Anything, DeepSeek Edition (January 28, 2025)

Nobody Knows Anything, The Beatles edition (September 26, 2024)

Let’s Say It All Together: Nobody Knows Anything (May 5, 2016)

Nobody Knows Anything (Full archive)

 

 

Sources:
BYE-BYE BOOEY The Howard Stern Show ‘to be canceled’ after nearly 20 years on SiriusXM as ‘$100m’ contract is up later this year
by Jessica Finn
The Sun, August 5, 2025

Howard Stern staffers prepping for show’s demise, withholding best material as future uncertain
By Chris Harris
NY Post, Aug. 9, 2025

 

 

 

__________

1. Beginning in the 1980s a wave of fabrication scandals of sources were perpetrated under the cover of anonymity. See, e.g., Janet Cooke at The Washington Post; Jayson Blair at The New York Times; Jack Kelley at USA Today; Stephen Glass at The New Republic, and others involving fabricated and unverifiable sources.

2. From the NYPost:

“I don’t know if its wokeness that alienated some of his audience, or if he just got tamer with age, but whatever it is, its apparent no one wants to hear it anymore,” the second staffer offered.

3. Anyone who has ever been involved in a large deal knows that the fewer people who know anything, the less chance of an accidental derailment…

 

~~~

 

I extensively detail why “Nobody Knows Anything” in How Not to Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth―and how to avoid them.”

It’s on sale at Amazon for $18.01!

 

The post Nobody Knows Anything, Howard Stern Edition appeared first on The Big Picture.

Trump Says Netanyahu Pardon "On Its Way", Israeli President Says Otherwise

Authored by Travis Gilmore via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said on Dec. 29 that Israeli President Isaac Herzog told him a pardon for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was “on its way.” That assertion, however, was disputed by Herzog’s office.

“He’s a wartime prime minister who’s a hero. How do you not give a pardon?” Trump, while standing alongside Netanyahu, told reporters ahead of a meeting at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida.

“I spoke to the president ... he tells me it’s on its way.”

Trump suggested the fate of Israel would be far worse if Netanyahu had not been in charge during recent crises—including the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attacks.

“If you had the wrong prime minister right now, Israel would not exist,” Trump said.

“They were met with a force the likes of which very few countries could have handled.”

Herzog’s office, nevertheless, issued a statement that appeared to contradict Trump’s comments.

When asked about the U.S. president’s remarks, Herzog’s office said the Israeli president had not spoken with Trump since a pardon request was submitted several weeks ago.

“There has not been a conversation between President Herzog and President Trump since the pardon request was submitted,” the statement read.

“Several weeks ago, a conversation took place between President Herzog and a representative on behalf of President Trump, who inquired about the U.S. President’s letter. During that conversation, an explanation was provided regarding the stage of the process in which the request currently stands, and that any decision on the matter will be made in accordance with the established procedures.

“This was conveyed to President Trump’s representative, exactly as President Herzog stated publicly in Israel.”

Netanyahu is the first Israeli prime minister to be charged with a crime while in office. He denies the bribery, fraud, and breach-of-trust charges stemming from his 2019 indictment.

His own request for a pardon, submitted on Nov. 30, argued that frequent court hearings hamper his ability to govern and that clemency would be in the national interest. The appeal was lodged following the start of a U.S.-brokered cease-fire in Gaza.

Netanyahu’s appeal for clemency has been criticized by his opponents, who said that pardoning him mid-trial would be a breach of the rule of law, according to the Times of Israel.

As per Israeli law, the president has the authority to pardon convicts; however, there is no precedent for issuing a pardon while a trial is still ongoing.

Netanyahu’s quest for a pardon has been supported by Trump, who wrote a formal letter to Herzog in November urging him to grant clemency, calling the case against the Israeli prime minister “political, unjustified prosecution.”

During their Mar-a-Lago meeting on Dec. 29, Trump and Netanyahu discussed Gaza, Iran, Syria, and other matters.

“We had a big meeting with a lot of people, a lot of talent from Israel and from the U.S.,” Trump said after the meeting.

“And I think we came to a lot of conclusions. There’s very little difference in what we’re looking at, and where we want to be, where we want to go.”

Netanyahu expressed gratitude for a “very productive meeting.”

“I think we have a partnership ... second to none,” he said. “It’s allowed us to do tremendous things.”

Ahead of the meeting, Trump said they would begin the second phase of the peace plan in Gaza “as quickly as we can.”

“But there has to be a disarming of Hamas,” he noted.

Rebuilding the war-torn region is a priority, and sanitization efforts are underway, Trump said.

“It’s been a mess for a long time, but we’re going to straighten it out,” Trump said. “We’re helping the people of Gaza a lot, and so is Israel.”

Netanyahu thanked Trump for the opportunity to meet and for his continued support of Israel.

“We’ve never had a friend like President Trump in the White House. It’s not even close,” the prime minister said.

“I think it’s not merely Israel’s great fortune; it’s the world’s great fortune.”

After the meeting, Netanyahu said his nation would award its highest civilian honor, the Israel Prize, to Trump, who will be the first non-Israeli to receive the prize. The prize was announced formally on Monday by Israel’s minister of education.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 09:15

"Stark Reversal" From Pandemic: US Home Price Growth Slowest Since Q2 2023

Home prices in America's largest 20 cities surged 0.32% MoM in October (far higher than the +0.1% MoM move expected) but for context, this is the weakest annual home price growth since the March through July 2023 period, when the market was absorbing the initial shock of the Fed’s rapid rate hikes

Source: Bloomberg

“October’s data show the housing market settling into a much slower gear, with the National Composite Index up only about 1.4% year over year – among the weakest performances since mid-2023,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

"This broad stagnation suggests that elevated mortgage rates – still hovering around the mid-6% range in late October – are finally overwhelming the market’s earlier supply-driven resilience. Would-be buyers are facing the highest borrowing costs in decades, and that affordability squeeze has curbed demand enough to erode price momentum across most of the country."

But could be set to improve in the (lagged) months ahead...

Source: Bloomberg

Regional performance underscores a striking geographic rotation.

• Chicago now leads all major markets with a 5.8% annual price gain, followed by New York at 5.0% and Cleveland at 4.1%. These traditionally stable Midwestern and Northeastern metros have sustained solid growth even as broader conditions soften.

• By contrast, Tampa home prices are down 4.2% year over year – the steepest drop among the 20 cities, marking Tampa’s 12th consecutive month of annual declines. Other former highflyers in the Sun Belt are similarly struggling: Phoenix (-1.5%), Dallas (-1.5%), and Miami (-1.1%) all remain in negative territory.

As Godec notes, "it’s a stark reversal from the pandemic boom, as the markets that were once ‘pandemic darlings’ are now seeing the sharpest corrections while more traditional metros continue to post modest gains."

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 09:08

Meta "Joining Forces" With China-Founded Manus AI In $2 Billion Deal

Mark Zuckerberg has been aggressively repositioning Meta Platforms' focus and spending toward artificial intelligence, particularly to achieve "personal superintelligence" that enhances existing apps like Facebook and Instagram and, of course, boosts revenue. Put simply, the pivot to AI looks like a far better venture than Zuckerberg's absolutely horrendous bet on the metaverse.

A new Wall Street Journal report on Tuesday said that Meta is buying an AI startup with Chinese founders that conducts deep research called Manus. The move is a familiar strategy: if you cannot beat the competition, buy it. Zuckerberg has repeatedly taken this approach this year, including aggressively poaching AI talent across Silicon Valley.

Manus is entering the next chapter: we’re joining forces with Meta to take general agents to the next level.

Full story on our blog: https://t.co/huPrnbITCi

— Manus (@ManusAI) December 29, 2025

People familiar with the Meta-Manus deal say the acquisition will cost upwards of $2 billion. At the same time, Manus was seeking a new round of fundraising at roughly that valuation when Meta approached with an offer.

In a statement to the Financial Times, Meta said it would "operate and sell the Manus service" while integrating its technology into its own products, such as the Meta AI chatbot.

Meta noted that Manus is one of the "leading autonomous general-purpose agents," with tools capable of performing tasks including market research, coding, and data analysis. Meta could ultimately offer this new AI agent service for as little as $20 per month.

The acquisition stands out as one of the most high-profile deals to date involving a U.S. tech giant purchasing an AI product built within Asia's AI and startup ecosystem. It highlights how AI innovation is no longer confined to Silicon Valley, but is emerging across parts of Asia. The deal also highlights a strategic shift by U.S. tech giants toward acquiring proven AI products and talent overseas, rather than relying solely on in-house development, as the race for AI agents and automation intensifies following China's DeepSeek debut earlier this year.

Manus raised $75 million in a Series B funding round led by U.S. venture firm Benchmark in April. Political scrutiny surrounding the VC firm's funding round with the China-linked startup later prompted Manus to relocate its headquarters to Singapore.

WSJ reported that Manus CEO Xiao Hong will soon report to Meta COO Javier Olivan. The startup employs about 100 staff, primarily in Singapore.

Using publicly available data from the supply chain analysis firm Sayari, Manus is owned by Singapore-registered Butterfly Effect Technology (Butterfly Effect Pte. Ltd.). The founders include Xiao Hong, often called "Red," as CEO and co-founder; Yichao "Peak" Ji as chief scientist and co-founder; and Zhang Tao as co-founder and product partner.

"In this AI wave, Chinese entrepreneurs building open-source large models or AI applications have been iterating the fastest and are highly competitive," Li Chengdong, founder of the Haitun internet think tank, told the FT. He added, "An incredible company and team are being sold to the United States. If China does not value talent and entrepreneurs and does not respect the basic rules of capital, it will ultimately be very hard for the country to win the China-US tech war."

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 09:00

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Records Annual Gain in October 2025

• The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.4% annual gain for October, up from a 1.3% rise in the previous month.

• Regional divergence persists as Midwestern and Northeastern markets, led by Chicago (5.8%) and New York (5.0%), outpaced Sun Belt cities like Tampa (–4.2%) and Phoenix (–1.5%).

• Sixteen of 20 markets declined month-over-month in October, signaling broad stagnation as high mortgage rates weigh on affordability and suppress price momentum.
...
“October’s data show the housing market settling into a much slower gear, with the National Composite Index up only about 1.4% year over year – among the weakest performances since mid-2023,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “This figure is essentially unchanged from September’s 1.3% annual gain and represents less than a third of the 5.1% average home price increase recorded in 2024. National home prices also continue to lag consumer inflation, as October’s CPI is estimated around 3.1% (based on a provisional index the U.S. Treasury announced due to the federal data shutdown) – roughly 1.8 percentage points higher than the latest housing appreciation. In real terms, that gap implies a slight decline in inflation-adjusted home values over the past year.

“Regional performance underscores a striking geographic rotation. Chicago now leads all major markets with a 5.8% annual price gain, followed by New York at 5.0% and Cleveland at 4.1%. These traditionally stable Midwestern and Northeastern metros have sustained solid growth even as broader conditions soften. By contrast, Tampa home prices are down 4.2% year over year – the steepest drop among the 20 cities, marking Tampa’s 12th consecutive month of annual declines. Other former high- flyers in the Sun Belt are similarly struggling: Phoenix (-1.5%), Dallas (-1.5%), and Miami (-1.1%) all remain in negative territory. It’s a stark reversal from the pandemic boom, as the markets that were once ‘pandemic darlings’ are now seeing the sharpest corrections while more traditional metros continue to post modest gains.
...
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.4% annual gain for October, up from a 1.3% rise in the previous month. The 10- City Composite showed an annual increase of 1.9%, down from a 2.0% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 1.3%, down from a 1.4% increase in the previous month.
...
The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Indices continued to report negative month-over-month changes in October, posting a -0.3% drop for the 20- City Composite Index and -0.2% decreases for both the 10-City Composite and U.S. National Indices.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index reported a monthly increase of 0.4% and both the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices posted month-over-month gains of 0.3%. emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was up 0.3% in October (SA).  The Composite 20 index was up 0.3% (SA) in October.

The National index was up 0.4% (SA) in October.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 NSA was up 1.9% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 NSA was up 1.3% year-over-year.

The National index NSA was up 1.4% year-over-year.

Annual price changes were close to expectations.  I'll have more later.

Futures Flat, Precious Metals Rebound On Last Full Trading Session Of 2025

Stock struggled to find direction amid a year-end lack of catalysts and the traditional lull in trading in the final trading days of the year. After suffering one of the biggest one-day drops on record, silver and gold regained their footing after sliding from all-time highs. As of 8:15am, the S&P 500 was set to open flat, while Nasdaq futures fractionally in the red after back-to-back losses. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed while US silver and gold stocks are higher as the precious metals rebound from Monday’s drop with gainers including Hecla (HL) +2.4%, Coeur (CDE) +2.8% and Barrick (B) +2.4%. European stocks outperformed as rising metal prices boosted miners, while a gauge of Asian shares nudged lower. In the most notable overnight FX move, China’s onshore yuan strengthened past the key 7-per-dollar level for the first time since 2023. The greenback remained on course for its worst month since August. Treasuries fell across the curve, with the 10-year yield rising three basis points to 4.14%. Today's US economic data calendar includes the weekly ADP employment change (8:15am), the Case-Shiller home price index (9am), December MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am) and the December Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). The Fed is set to release minutes of the December FOMC meeting at 2 p.m

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks were mixed (Tesla +0.7%, Nvidia +0.1%, Alphabet little changed, Microsoft -0.2%, Amazon -0.1%, Meta Platforms -0.2%, Apple -0.2%)

• Silver and gold mining stocks are higher as the precious metals rebound, with gainers including Hecla (HL) +2.4%, Coeur (CDE) +2.8% and Barrick (B) +2.4%
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) rises 1.9% as copper headed for the longest winning run since 2017 in a December rally powered by the prospect of more stress in the supply chain.
• OceanFirst Financial (OCFC) slips less than 1% on light trading after agreeing to buy Flushing Financial.
• T1 Energy Inc. (TE) climbs 5% after the solar equipment manufacturer announced the completion of a $160 million sale of Section 45X production tax credits.

In corporate news, Citigroup expects to post a roughly $1.1 billion after-tax loss on the sale of its remaining business in Russia to Renaissance Capital. And Meta agreed to buy Singapore-based startup Manus, an AI agent that can complete general tasks including screening resumes, creating trip itineraries and analyzing stocks in response to basic instructions. The deal values Manus at more than $2 billion. Tesla published a compilation of analyst estimates for vehicle deliveries to its website, and the averages for the current quarter are more pessimistic than those gathered by Bloomberg.

Global equities are on track for a third straight annual gain in a year when European and Asian stocks trounced the S&P 500. With news flow and trading volumes generally low, investors will focus on the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting for clues about the interest-rate path for 2026. Tuesday also marks the last trading session of the year for many equity markets, including Germany, Japan and South Korea. 

“The overriding theme is that global stock indices have lost momentum into year-end,” wrote Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. “There are plenty of reasons for this, including decent returns for 2025, and investors waiting to make big trading decisions until after the Christmas break.”

Still, as Bloomberg notes, investors have reason to be optimistic heading into the new year. MSCI’s gauge for global stocks has climbed an average 1.4% in January over the last 10 years and advanced in six of those instances, Bloomberg data show.

The dollar and Treasury yields are marking time before the 2 p.m. ET release of minutes from the Fed’s December meeting, which saw a third consecutive cut. Amid signs of growing division about where policy heads next, rates may remain on hold until a new chair is in place. Trump teased that he has a preferred candidate to succeed Jerome Powell, but is in no hurry to make an announcement. Wall Street rate strategists, with several notable exceptions, anticipate stable-to-higher Treasury yields in 2026, even with the Fed expected to cut rates as many as three more times.

For another session, precious metals were in focus after trading turned volatile in the last few days. Silver rebounded 5% after tumbling 9% in the previous session. Gold was up 1.5% after losing more than 4%. Among other metals, copper headed for the longest winning streak since 2017 in a rally boosted by the prospect of more stress in the supply chain. Nickel hit the highest since March after top producer Indonesia flagged plans to cut supply.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said that he has a preferred candidate to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, but is in no hurry to make an announcement. He also mused that he might fire Jerome Powell.

In geopolitics, Trump’s campaign to end the war in Ukraine hit fresh problems on Monday when Putin said he would revise Russia’s negotiating position, claiming Ukrainian drones targeted his residence. Zelenskiy dismissed Russia’s allegation as a “new lie” and warned that Moscow could be using it as a pretext to prepare an attack on government buildings in Kyiv. Oil prices are extending Monday’s gains as traders weigh geopolitical tensions from Russia to Venezuela and Iran against concern about a glut. Crude remains on course for a steep annual drop because of worries that global production will eclipse demand after OPEC and its allies ramped up output to try to recapture market share.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.4% and on course for a record close. Mining stocks are outperforming, tracking gains across most of the metals complex. Banks also outperform. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

• Fresnillo shares climb as much as 3.7% after Citigroup Inc. analysts boosted their price target on the company while maintaining a buy rating, to take account of higher silver and gold prices.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities edged lower, snapping a seven-day winning streak, as losses in Taiwan and Japan offset gains in Hong Kong.  The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell 0.1%, with TSMC and Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. among the biggest drags. Tuesday marked the last trading day of the year for several Asian markets, including Japan, South Korea and Thailand.  The Philippines remained closed for a holiday.  Some of the region’s tech shares tracked a selloff in US peers ahead of the year-end. China’s new round of military drills around Taiwan also weighed on investor sentiment.  Meanwhile, it was a busy day for stock market listings in Hong Kong, with some of the debuts trading mostly higher. Insilico Medicine Cayman TopCo, an AI drug discovery startup, jumped as much as 48%.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed. The euro is flat with little reaction seen after Spanish harmonized CPI slowed as expected.

In rates, treasuries are trading near session lows as US trading gets under way for the year’s final full session; cash and futures markets plan early closes for Wednesday, when the Bloomberg Treasury index will rebalance at 1 p.m. New York time with a 0.06-year duration extension estimated. Yields are higher by about 2-3bp across tenors, the 10-year near 4.14%, with curve spreads little changed. Bunds are a touch lower while gilts inch higher. Treasuries are headed for a small monthly loss amid signs of US economic resilience, yet still on pace for their best annual performance since 2020 following three Fed interest-rate cuts in response to weakening labor-market conditions. Swap contracts for predicting Fed moves price in low probability of a rate cut for the next policy decision on Jan. 28 but fully price one in by mid-year and two by year-end. 

In commodities, spot silver rises 4% while gold and most base metals are also in the green. WTI crude futures climb 0.4% to $58.30 a barrel. 

US economic data calendar includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am), October FHFA house price index and S&P Cotality home price gauges (9am), December MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers) and December Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). The Fed is set to release minutes of the December FOMC meeting at 2 p.m.; the decision to cut interest rates by a quarter point drew two dissents in favor of no action and one in favor of a bigger reduction.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini little changed
• Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
• Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
• DAX +0.3%
• CAC 40 +0.3%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.12%
• VIX +0.3 points at 14.47
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1200.33
• euro little changed at $1.1774
• WTI crude +0.5% at $58.35/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump Says US Forces Struck Narcotics Loading Docks in Venezuela: BBG
• Russia says its negotiating stance on Ukraine will toughen after accusing Kyiv of attack: RTRS
• China encircles Taiwan in massive military display: RTRS
• China’s Push to Master the Arctic Opens an Alarming Shortcut to U.S: WSJ
• Emboldened Activist Investors Are Circling U.S. Banks: WSJ
• Russia shows off deployment of nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles in Belarus: RTRS
• Russia attacks Ukraine's Black Sea ports, damages civilian ship, Kyiv says: RTRS
• Facing Alawite backlash, Syria’s new leaders take controversial steps to win loyalty: RTRS
• Silver Jumps in Choppy End to Year for Metals: WSJ
• Meta Buys AI Startup Manus for More Than $2 Billion: RTRS
• AI Trade’s Next Leg Is All About Tech’s ‘Pick-and-Shovel’ Stocks: BBG
• Saudi Ultimatum Deepens Its Rift With Gulf Rival U.A.E.: WSJ
• Cancer’s Soaring Cost Wrecks Patients’ Finances in a Broken System: BBG
• Caterpillar’s Surging Stock Is Fueled by AI, Not Yellow Excavators: WSJ
• NYC Subway Says Goodbye to MetroCard, But Many Riders Already Did: BBG

US Event Calendar

• 9:00 am: Oct FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0%
• 9:00 am: Oct S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA, est. 1.1%, prior 1.36%
• 9:00 am: Oct S&P Cotality CS U.S. HPI YoY NSA, prior 1.29%
• 9:45 am: Dec MNI Chicago PMI, est. 40, prior 36.3
• 2:00 pm: Dec 10 FOMC Meeting Minutes

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 08:48

Citizen Journalist Descends On Ohio, Immediately Finds 'First Signs Of Potentially Massive Somali Fraud'

The "Nick Shirley Effect" has begun, with Muckraker founder Anthony Rubin on the ground in Columbus, Ohio, home to the second-largest Somali community in the U.S., investigating daycare centers. This development comes less than a day after Ohio attorney Mehek Cooke said federal investigators are examining allegations that elements within Ohio's Somali community defrauded millions of dollars from the state's Medicaid system.

"The first Somali-affiliated daycare facility that we knocked on after landing in Columbus, Ohio, today did not answer," Rubin wrote on X, alongside a video showing the daycare center, Great Minds Learning Academy.

Rubin continued, "A neighbor across the street told us, 'I've never seen anybody come out of the building or go into the building.'"

FIRST SIGNS OF MASSIVE POTENTIAL SOMALI FRAUD IN COLUMBUS, OHIO

The first Somali-affiliated daycare facility that we knocked after landing in Columbus, Ohio today did not answer.

A neighbor across the street told us, “I’ve never seen nobody come out the building or go in the… pic.twitter.com/zywy9lPDMw

— Muckraker.com (@realmuckraker) December 30, 2025

On Sunday, Breitbart News published an interview with Ohio attorney Mehek Cooke, who alleges that members of the Somali community in Ohio have defrauded millions of dollars from the state's Medicaid program. She said that authorities at the highest levels are investigating "what is happening in Ohio."

.@MehekCooke: Taxpayer-funded medical fraud is also widespread in Ohio.

"We really need to investigate the Medicaid system and how much it's increased since the Somalian population came." pic.twitter.com/8pJCzjK4qo

— Breitbart News (@BreitbartNews) December 28, 2025

Rubin's on-the-ground reporting comes as tech bros have pitched a grant funding program to "unlock tens of investigative journalists" to cover widespread fraud in Democratic-run states. The idea follows Shirley's investigation into Somali-linked daycare fraud in Minneapolis, which shocked the nation over the weekend with an investigative video that has garnered 125 million views.  

I trust @Cernovich instincts here. If he thinks a grant program can unlock tens of investigative journalists to uncover the breadth and scale of California’s fraud, many people will support it.

Cerno? https://t.co/yoWfLMV8Lb

— Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath) December 28, 2025

We assess that public sentiment toward DOGE could reverse after the Democratic Party's propaganda machine vilified the effort this year, even as evidence of fraud, waste, and abuse was plainly visible. As on-the-ground reporting expands in corrupt blue states, the scale of the alleged fraud is likely to broaden, increasing the likelihood of a renewed push of DOGE.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 08:45

Tesla Publishes Downbeat Wall Street Estimates For Vehicle Sales

Tesla has compiled vehicle delivery forecasts from a broad group of Wall Street firms, including Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, GS, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Jefferies, Needham, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair. The overall sell-side analyst consensus implies Q4 deliveries of roughly 422,850 vehicles, representing a 15% year-over-year decline and a 10% drop from the Bloomberg-compiled average of 445,061 vehicles.

Source: Bloomberg

The company is on track for a second consecutive annual decline in deliveries, with analysts expecting 1.6 million vehicles in 2025, down more than 8% from last year.

This follows a slow start to the year, driven by factory retooling for the redesigned Model Y, elevated interest rates, dismal demand for EVs, and the end of federal tax credits, as well as manufactured reputational damage from the Democratic Party's propaganda apparatus. This has included billionaire-funded NGOs working with activist groups to target Tesla and Elon Musk, the spread of false or misleading claims, sustained negative media narratives, and, in some cases, militant left-wing groups carrying out arson attacks on Tesla showrooms. These actions followed Elon Musk's involvement with DOGE to uncover fraud, waste, and abuse, an effort that has since gained broader public traction amid the Minneapolis Somali-linked fraud scandal that has shocked the nation.

Here is the full printout of the Tesla-compiled consensus from sell-side analysts:

Tesla shares are up 14% year to date as of Monday's close.

Investor interest has increasingly shifted toward robotics, artificial intelligence, and power grid upgrades. The convergence of these technologies under a single corporate umbrella shows the uniqueness of the Tesla brand, as no other U.S. company currently operates at a comparable scale across those domains.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 07:45

Why Did The EU Slide Into Complete Irrelevance?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Hint: It’s structural. Trump has nothing to do with it...

The Creeping Death of the Single Market

Eurointelligence discussed the EU’s Slide Towards Irrelevance

The EU has zero chance to emerge as a geopolitical power like the US or China. Strategic autonomy was only a slogan. It came with no strategy, and most importantly, with no financial commitments. The way EU countries are currently raising military spending, through debt mostly, and without common procurement, will reinforce their dependency on the US and US-dominated financial markets. At no point did the EU have an agreed end-game strategy for Ukraine – something that goes beyond wishful thinking.

But the EU has a few, sadly neglected, assets. It has a customs union, a single market and a single currency. They don’t win wars, but they matter. If the EU had not fallen behind the US in productivity growth, and if it had not given up on 21st technologies, the EU would be a formidable soft power. The threat of being banned from the world’s largest single market would have been a real choke-hold. The purpose of frugal fiscal policies is not to pay homage to a protestant work ethic, but to give financial headroom to act during emergencies.

If you accept, as everybody seems to do, that treaty change is impossible, an intelligent soft power strategy is the only thing that is left. But that would have meant a lowering of ambitions: no Green deal; no anti-tech legislation; the completion of the banking union with the goal to end the bank-sovereign nexus. In particular, it would have meant more integration.The balance between widening and deepening is way off.

For the talking heads that roam our airways and social media, it is cooler to talk about foreign policy. But for the EU it would be better if its leadership took an interest in the work of standard committees. They should not invite Zelensky to their European Council meetings, but the three economics Nobel Laureates, to give a presentation of the importance of technology to economic growth. The creeping death of the single market is the real existential crisis of the EU. It is not Trump.

If the EU wants to acquire hard power, that would have to be preceded by political reforms: treaty change to establish the EU as a federal union, with tax raising and debt issuing powers, money to fund an army, and a politically accountable military command structure. You don’t acquire hard power with people sitting around tables.

The EU’s tragedy is that it abandoned the necessary to seek the impossible.

Treaty Change Impossible

Yes, I do accept that a treaty change is impossible unless and until some currency crisis forces that outcome.

I have been writing about this for years.

The EU is governed by nannycrats with impossible goals and no way to act on them.

The Green Deal is now dead. Trump demand 5 percent military spending when budget constraints are such that 2 percent will be a struggle.

The US strives to innovate. The EU strives to regulate. It wants to regulate AI without knowing what AI is even about.

EC fines X €120 million under the Digital Services Act

Please note that on December 4, the EC fines X €120 million under the Digital Services Act

Deceptive design of X’s ‘blue checkmark’

X’s use of the ‘blue checkmark’ for ‘verified accounts’ deceives users. This violates the DSA obligation for online platforms to prohibit deceptive design practices on their services. On X, anyone can pay to obtain the ‘verified’ status without the company meaningfully verifying who is behind the account, making it difficult for users to judge the authenticity of accounts and content they engage with. This deception exposes users to scams, including impersonation frauds, as well as other forms of manipulation by malicious actors. While the DSA does not mandate user verification, it clearly prohibits online platforms from falsely claiming that users have been verified, when no such verification took place.

Lack of transparency of X’s ads repository

X’s advertisement repository fails to meet the transparency and accessibility requirements of the DSA. Accessible and searchable ad repositories are critical for researchers and civil society to detect scams, hybrid threat campaigns, coordinated information operations and fake advertisements.

X incorporates design features and access barriers, such as excessive delays in processing, which undermine the purpose of ad repositories. X’s ads repository also lacks critical information, such as the content and topic of the advertisement, as well as the legal entity paying for it. This hinders researchers and the public to independently scrutinise any potential risks in online advertising.

Nannycrat Nonsense

Seriously, doesn’t the EU have anything better to do than worry about blue checkmarks on X?

Unfortunately, this kind of nannycrat nonsense is all that the EU can do.

Q: Why?
A: Because, with few exceptions, it takes unanimous or nearly unanimous agreement to do anything.

So the EU launches commissions and studies again and again and again because commissions and studies are the only thing that can be approved.

By treaty, France has veto power over anything agricultural (every nation actually, but France and Italy are at the forefront). Global trade summits fail every year because of single-nation veto power. It useless to even invite the EU because the outcome is known from the beginning.

Germany and other Northern European countries have veto power over budget rules. That won’t change until German banks blow sky high, if then.

In the rare case the EU ever does anything, it’s usually wrong. Green energy, carbon border taxes, and the ridiculous digital services act are good examples.

Spotlight AI

The competition on AI is massive. Globally it’s the US vs China. But within the US there are four key players.

• OpenAI: OpenAI developed ChatGPT and the GPT models. It is a leader in conversational AI and foundational models.

• Anthropic: Anthropic is an AI safety and research company. It develops the “Claude” family of large language models. It is known for its constitutional AI framework.

• xAI: xAI is Elon Musk’s AI venture. It developed the Grok chatbot, with integration with Tesla and robotics.

• Perplexity AI: Perplexity AI operates an AI-powered search engine. It uses large language models and real-time web search to provide cited answers.

AI Q&A

Q: Where is the EU?
A: The EU is not in the ballpark. It’s not even close to the ballpark.

Instead, EU nannycrats are in a sand playbox 2,000 miles away trying to regulate the damn thing.

France’s big concern is not AI but to protect the family farm.

Protecting Family Farms in France:

• Combating Unfair Competition: Farmers protest against free-trade deals (like Mercosur) that they argue flood the market with cheaper products, undermining French standards and viability.
• Rural Livelihoods: Supporting family farms is seen as vital for food security, rural jobs, and maintaining the French countryside’s character. 
• Economic Support: France relies on EU subsidies, but farmers demand fairer distribution, with new rules pushing for eco-friendly practices while trying to prevent large farms from monopolizing funds.
• Legal Protections: Laws aim to shield farmers from “abusive” lawsuits by new residents over noise (like roosters) or smells, preserving traditional agricultural practices.

Mercosur Deal Update

Hooray! I am pleased to report that political agreement on Mercosur was reached in December 2024 after 25+ years of talks.

However, ratification hinges on member states.

Yet, on December 19, Politico reported EU delays Mercosur signing as 25-year curse drags on

An eleventh-hour turnaround from Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni upended a self-imposed objective of signing the agreement with the Mercosur countries on Dec. 20 — pushing the decision to mid-January instead, POLITICO first reported.

The delay shows that after two decades of negotiations and countless turn-arounds, the EU-Mercosur pact, designed to create one of the world’s largest free-trade areas between the EU, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina, continues to be a political minefield in Europe.

“Mercosur plays a central role in our trade agreements,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on her way into the leaders summit on Thursday morning, adding it was “of enormous importance we get the green light.”

Yet Meloni derailed the carefully laid plan.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said the Italian leader promised him on a call Thursday that she would support the deal as soon as she secured the backing of Italy’s farmers. Despite heaping pressure on Europeans in recent days, Lula ended up accepting the delay, the diplomats said.

Meloni’s pushback meant there was not enough backing from EU countries for von der Leyen to fly to Brazil this weekend to sign the deal as planned — despite the huge political capital invested on each side in trying to finalize it by the end before Christmas.

Even if Rome and Paris come around, the agreement’s troubles are far from over: The deal must still pass through the European Parliament, where opposition is mounting across the political spectrum.

“It seems certain that it [the Mercosur deal] will be signed in mid-January,” a senior German official told reporters.

The mid-January date is important, the official stressed, to get the agreement ratified before the Parliament has a chance to vote on a resolution to send the deal to the Court of Justice of the EU — which would risk freezing its ratification for up to two years.

Dealing With the EU

Mercosur is the perfect example of what it’s like dealing with the EU. Any country can damn near block any deal for any reason, or no reason at all.

I repeat my congratulations to the UK for escaping this madness. Of course, the UK has not made the best of Brexit, but that is the fault of UK politicians, not the Brexit vote itself.

Regulation and roadblocks are all the EU knows how to do. That’s why Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Tesla, Nvdia, and all the key AI players outside of China are in the US. The EU would regulate them to death before they ever got going.

To repeat: The US strives to innovate. The EU strives to regulate. Deals take 25 years. Knowing that, one would have to be crazy to want back in.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 07:20

The World Is Hopeful For A Better 2026

Despite ongoing conflicts, uncertainty over what Trump era 2.0 will bring next and the imminent climate catastrophe, global optimism is holding firm for 2026.

As Statista's Anna Fleck details below, according to the latest data from Ipsos, an average of 71 percent of respondents across 30 countries said they felt optimistic that their 2026 will be better than 2025.

This is the same share as last year and 16 percentage points up from 2023, which had the lowest score on record since Ipsos started running the survey.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Of course, a global average hides the differences between countries.

For instance, when looking at national breakdown, Indonesia has a high share of people feeling positive about their coming year. Out of the 30 countries polled, it comes out on top, with 90 percent of respondents feeling more optimistic about 2026. This is the same as last year.

At the more cynical end of the spectrum stand France and Japan, with only 41 percent and 44 percent of their respondents, respectively, feeling more positive about the coming year. France saw a nine percentage point drop from last 2024, following a year of political turmoil in 2025. Meanwhile, Japan’s low score is actually a six percentage point increase on its 2024 figure. South Korea and India were the two countries to see the largest gains, with a nine percentage point increase year-on-year.

Optimism has faltered slightly in the United Kingdom, down three percentage points from last year to 58 percent, while 66 percent of U.S. respondents said they felt optimistic about the coming year (-4 p.p.).

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 06:55