IMO Draws Up Hormuz Evacuation Plan For 800 Ships Trapped In Gulf

Tanker traffic through the Hormuz chokepoint remained muted as of Tuesday morning, with maritime movement still far below pre-US-Iran conflict levels. The ship backlog in the Persian Gulf has now swelled to a staggering 800 vessels, underscoring the scale of the disruption, while the International Maritime Organization is reportedly drawing up evacuation plans for stranded ships.

Bloomberg quoted the Secretary-General of the IMO, Arsenio Dominguez, who stated on the sidelines of Singapore Maritime Week earlier today that the IMO is preparing a humanitarian evacuation of 800 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf after the nearly two-month conflict.

"In order for us to do anything at all, we need to make sure that the conflict has come to an end, that there are no threats of any ships being attacked, and that the region is clear from any hazards, including mines," Dominguez said.

The proposed evacuation plan would prioritize ship departures based in part on how long crews have been stranded in the Persian Gulf, with vessels using the long-established Traffic Separation Scheme through the strait.

Dominguez said the effort is focused on evacuating seafarers, not necessarily protecting cargo values, describing it as a humanitarian corridor rather than a commercial reopening.

"This is about the seafarers. This is about the people," Dominguez said. "Because if we actually start looking into the cargo, the values, the commodities, et cetera, then this is not going to work. The decision of the council was very clear. It's a humanitarian corridor to evacuate the seafarers from the region."

The Hormuz situation has been made worse in recent days as Iran's military vowed to retaliate after the U.S. Navy fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship near the maritime chokepoint. The U.S. naval blockade of the strait is still ongoing.

Since the commencement of the blockade against ships entering or exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas, U.S. forces have directed 27 vessels to turn around or return to an Iranian port. pic.twitter.com/G8dl96wN4H

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) April 20, 2026

Since the start of the blockade, the U.S. military has directed 27 ships to turn back or return to an Iranian port, according to CENTCOM on X.

There have been five passenger ships that steamed through the strait during its temporary opening last week. There was a report from Lloyd's List that said more than two dozen Iranian-linked ships have evaded the blockade.

Meanwhile, the U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire is set to expire on Wednesday, as Vice President JD Vance and other U.S. negotiators are set to travel to Pakistan for a new round of peace talks.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 06:55

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads:

• 50 years. 50 facts. Indexing since 1976. As the golden anniversary of index fund investing approaches, the strategy is widely available across and within asset classes. Its appeal is evident: Indexing is an easy-to-understand, cost-effective strategy that can offer diversification, tax efficiency, and consistent performance relative to the results of the market. (Vanguard)

• The U.S. Is Manufacturing a Ton of Grid Batteries: Demand for energy storage is surging on the U.S. grid — and the country now has more than enough battery-making factories to meet it. Domestic energy-storage capacity is scaling fast as grid demand climbs: (Reasons To Be Cheerful) see also AI Is Using So Much Energy That Computing Firepower Is Running Out: The AI bubble has a physics problem: there aren’t enough megawatts on the grid. Compute-constrained means capex-constrained, which means the models won’t scale the way investors are pricing.  (Wall Street Journal)

• A Catechism for Robots: Kevin Kelly’s first draft FAQ dedicated to embodied AIs with persistent memories, dynamic learning, and a large dose of autonomy. (KK)

• Deals Hurt Returns. Thaler explains that auctions—especially when there are large numbers of bidders—can cause some participants to become emotional, to the point that they become undisciplined and end up bidding too much. The winners in these situations are thus “cursed” because they’re the ones who were willing to overpay the most and thus tend to be most disappointed. (HumbleDollar)

• Americans Have Always Hated Taxes. The 250-Year Battle Over Your Wallet. From the Whiskey Rebellion of the 1790s to Henry David Thoreau’s refusal to pay taxes to the 1,400 elected officials who signed an antitax pledge. Barron’s A look at the long history of American tax rebellions. (Barrons)

• How Austin’s stunning drop in rents explains housing in America: We finally have some good news about housing affordability. (Vox)

• Some of the Most Popular Graduate Degrees Don’t Pay Off Financially: New data shows the ROI on many master’s programs is worse than advertised.The report found advanced degrees in social work and psychology may have a zero to negative return, while medicine, law and pharmacy degrees show the highest return. (Washington Post)

• Why the Strait of Hormuz is a geological wonder: The continental collisions that created this narrow Mideast waterway also made it the most strategically important 21 miles on Earth. Geology is destiny, and Iran controls the choke point.  (National Geographic)

• ‘An Operational Success and a Huge Strategic Failure’ Perhaps the most apt description of Trump’s policy toward Iran is an “incoherent maze” — a phrase Pete Hegseth applied in 2016 to Barack Obama’s foreign policy. Lost in his own labyrinth, Trump granted sanctions relief to Iran even as he bombed it, and careened from threatening war crimes unless Iran opened the strait to suggesting that the strait wasn’t our concern. (NYTimes) see also The Mythology of Pete Hegseth: Garrett Graff dismantles the mythology Hegseth has built around himself as the Iran War’s cheerleader-in-chief. The alternate history he’s selling is dangerous. (Doomsday Scenario)

• NBA Playoffs: Ranking the Superstar Matchups We Want to See in the First Round: The giants who rule atop the game must go to war with one another, over and over again, until only one is left standing. There’s no room for error or quarter on the way to the pinnacle of the sport. The quality of each team still matters quite a bit but it’s the superstar matchups that will determine who will be featured on the biggest stage come the Finals…(Sports Illustrated)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Philippe Bouchaud, co‑founder, chair & head of research/chief scientist at Capital Fund Management (CFM). The $20 billion firm specializes in managed futures. He began his career in theoretical physics, was awarded the IBM Young Scientist Prize (1990) and the C.N.R.S. Silver Medal (1996), and has published over 300 scientific papers and several books in physics and finance.

The gap between Wall Street (S&P 500) and Main Street (Consumer Sentiment) has never been this wide before. Wakl St ATH, Main St ATL

Source: @charliebilello

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Tuesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

How The Iranian Regime Destroyed Its Economy... Long Before The War

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

As negotiations edge towards a ceasefire, Tehran is trying to blame the country’s economic collapse on the war and foreign pressure.

Yet the data tell a different story: Iran’s economy was already structurally broken before the war.

Years of ideological policymaking, institutionalised corruption, and the militarisation of the economy have caused Iran’s economic ruin. 

Iran has been in a state of permanent economic emergency since at least 2018. Official inflation has remained above 40% year after year, destroying the country’s middle class.

World Bank estimates show average inflation in the high 30s for most of the 2018–2025 period, with spikes of up to 60%, driven by massive currency depreciation and the constant monetisation of fiscal deficits. 

Monetary collapse and the myth of sanctions

Since 2018, the rial has lost almost 95% of its value against the dollar, including a depreciation of more than 60% just between 2024 and 2025.

This collapse stems from relentless money printing to finance uncontrolled budget deficits, a domestic loss of confidence in the currency, capital flight, and a regime that has treated the central bank as a mere financing arm of the state.

All of this has happened while the government received billions of dollars from oil exports and enormous financial support from China, Russia, and other Asian countries. 

This is a state that prints money without restraint or underlying demand

The regime insists that Western sanctions are the primary cause of hardship. This is a convenient but false excuse. 

The Iranian regime has not fallen into economic crisis because of U.S. sanctions. It has dozens of trade agreements with the world’s largest economies and generates enormous oil income from exports of more than 1.3 million barrels per day.

The problem is that practically none of this wealth reaches ordinary citizens. This is a state that prints money without restraint or underlying demand, borrows heavily from its own banking system and generates capital flights while its currency collapses. 

Financing terror and institutional corruption

The elimination of Mohammad Reza Ashrafi Kahi, head of Trade at the Oil Headquarters, exposed a multibillion-dollar structure that financed the military activities of the Revolutionary Guard, Hamas, Hezbollah, and other armed groups using revenues from crude oil sales. 

Between November 2024 and November 2025, government debt to the banking system increased by 41% and debt to the central bank by 68%, forcing the authorities to monetise the deficit.

Over the same period, commercial banks increased their borrowing from the central bank by 63%, flooding the economy with worthless local currency.

Official sources cited by the oil exporters’ association report 47 billion dollars in crude oil and gas export revenues in 2025

As a result, the money supply was growing at annual rates of more than 40%, according to official data compiled by expert Mohamad Machine Chian, with the rial plunging despite massive export revenues. 

These huge oil revenues are used to finance corruption and terror. Official sources cited by the oil exporters’ association report 47 billion dollars in crude oil and gas export revenues in 2025.

With that level of income, the economy would be growing, and inflation would be moderate if the funds were used to benefit Iranian society and its productive fabric.

Instead, reports on capital outflows describe a clear pattern: money leaves Iran faster than it comes in, which forces the regime to rely even more on the printing press and on internal fiscal plunder, according to the BTI Project. 

IRGC dominance and the destruction of the private sector

Iran has implemented all the measures that demolish an economy: legal and investor insecurity, expropriations, price controls, subsidies, and an oversized public sector that preys on a private sector now reduced to barely 15% of the economy.

When oil revenues are diverted to finance terrorist and military projects, the government tries to create an illusion of strength through monetary financing and opaque off-budget operations, accelerating inflation and currency collapse.

Over decades, the Guards have transformed themselves from a military organisation into a sprawling business empire 

At the heart of Iran’s self-inflicted economic damage lies the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Over decades, the Guards have transformed themselves from a military organisation into a sprawling business empire that now controls an estimated 45–50% of economic activity.

Through parastatal conglomerates, front companies, and privileged access to state contracts, the IRGC dominates key sectors including energy, construction, telecommunications, and transport (Iran: Institutionalized Corruption and a Collapsed Economy, Shamsi Saadati). 

The human cost and obstacles to recovery

This dominance has several destructive effects.

Crowding out productive investment. Most oil and state revenues are sent to IRGC-linked entities. A large part of resources is used to finance regional terror groups and foreign expansion adventures. 

While other oil exporters built sovereign wealth funds, invested in human capital, and diversified into services and manufacturing, Iran’s regime used oil rents to entrench political control, finance terror, and reward cronyism.

The human cost of this mismanagement created poverty and unrest. Years of high inflation have pushed most of the middle class into poverty by wiping out savings and eroding wages in real terms. 

By the time the current war began, the economy was already in deep crisis. 

The main obstacles to recovery are political rather than technical. Iran needs fiscal discipline, central bank independence, transparent budgeting, a sharp reduction in the IRGC’s economic dominance, and a credible commitment to the rule of law and property rights.

Instead, the regime has consistently chosen its survival, imposing a system of terror and sacrificing growth and prosperity to maintain political control. 

Long before the first bomb fell, the regime had already destroyed the economy and any prospect of sustainable growth and social stability.

The challenge for any future government will be to rebuild an economy that serves citizens rather than a narrow circle of officials.

Ending the war is urgent; ending the current regime’s economic model is essential.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 06:30

Data Centers Drove Half Of All Growth In US Electricity Use In 2025

Global electricity demand rose by 3% in 2025, with growth nearly triple compared to the 1.3% increase in total energy consumption, as data centers and electric vehicles continued to push power use higher, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report on Monday.

Overall global energy demand growth slowed to 1.3% in 2025, slightly below the previous decade's average of 1.4% and significantly lower than in 2024, as global economic growth slowed and cooling demand in Asia was lower than in 2024, the IEA found in its annual Global Energy Review report published today.

While total energy demand growth cooled, electricity demand continued to grow strongly, with an annual rise of 3% last year, the IEA found. 

The growth rate dropped from 4.4% in 2024, when intense heat waves in India and Southeast Asia had boosted electricity consumption. Still, the 2025 growth rate in electricity demand remained above the 2.8% annual average between 2014 and 2024 and was also well over twice the 1.3% rate of overall global energy demand growth in 2025.

The global numbers mask the important role played by China. The country’s energy intensity improvements slowed sharply from nearly 4% per year between 2010 and 2019 to just 0.6% per year from 2019 to 2024. In 2025, China’s energy intensity improvement jumped back to above 3%. Putting China aside, global energy intensity improvements would have appeared more stable in recent years. Understanding why China’s energy intensity slowed so dramatically in recent years requires further analysis. However, it appears to be in part because of adverse weather and partly due to structural changes in China’s economy after Covid-19 towards a more export- and industry-intensive model of growth.

Electricity demand in the United States grew by 2% last year, slower than the 2.8% growth seen in 2024 but more than three times as fast as the average growth rate over the previous decade, the IEA said.

The buildings sector accounted for 80% of US power demand growth in 2025, boosted in particular by rapidly-increasing data center loads. Data center power demand alone contributed around half of the entire increase in electricity consumption in the U.S. last year. A cold winter, with a nearly 10% increase in heating degree days, also supported power demand in 2025 by boosting space heating needs, according to the Paris-based agency.

Solar power met the most of the energy demand growth globally last year, followed by gas, the IEA said.

In the electricity sector, the additional 600 terawatt-hours of solar PV generation worldwide in 2025 marked the largest structural increase ever recorded in a single year for any electricity generation technology, contributing to a decline in coal-fired electricity generation globally. Battery storage was the fastest-growing power sector technology in 2025. The roughly 110 gigawatts of new battery storage capacity added during the year exceeded the largest-ever annual capacity additions for natural gas. Meanwhile over 12 gigawatts of nuclear power reactors began construction in 2025, amid renewed momentum for nuclear projects in several regions.

“Global energy demand continued to increase in 2025 against a complex economic and geopolitical backdrop, with one trend unmistakeable: the expanding electrification of economies,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

“Electricity consumption is growing much faster than overall energy demand – and one energy source is growing much faster than any other. Solar PV accounted for over a quarter of all of the world’s energy demand growth – more than any other source, for the first time – followed right after by natural gas. In today’s rapidly shifting landscape, countries that prioritise resilience and diversification will be best placed to manage volatility and deliver secure and affordable energy in the years ahead.”

Here are the reports' key findings summarized:

• All major energy fuels and technologies grew in 2025 – but at very different rates. Overall global energy demand growth slowed to 1.3%, just below the average for the previous decade. Slower economic growth and slower growth in energy-intensive industries in some regions, lower cooling demand, and faster efficiency improvements all contributed to slower demand growth.

• Solar PV, the largest single source of growth, met more than 25% of higher demand, followed by natural gas, which contributed 17%. This was the first time on record that a modern renewable source contributed the largest share of global energy demand growth. Demand for oil, natural gas and coal all grew in 2025, but at a slower rate than in 2024. Low-emissions sources combined – solar, wind, nuclear, hydropower and other renewables – contributed nearly 60% of the growth in global demand.

• Demand growth in the United States rose to its second highest level since 2000, excluding post-recession rebound years, boosted by strong electricity demand from data centers, robust industrial growth and colder temperatures. The People’s Republic of China (hereafter, “China”) accounted for the largest overall share of global energy demand growth, but at 1.7% its growth rate slowed sharply due to the rapid growth of renewables and efficiency improvements.

• Demand for electricity grew at well over twice the rate of energy demand, reaffirming that the world has entered the Age of Electricity. Growth of nearly 3% remained above the average of 2.8% over the last decade, but was slower than in 2024, largely due to one-off factors such as lower demand for cooling in India and Southeast Asia. Electricity demand growth was again driven by a wide range of end uses in buildings and industry. Although only contributing a small share of this total growth, demand from electric vehicles and data centres grew rapidly. In the United States, data centres made up half of all growth in electricity use.

• Oil demand growth slowed further in 2025, increasing by 0.65 million barrels per day (mb/d) or 0.7%, down from 2024’s already muted 0.75 mb/d of growth. The increase in both years, which was in line with IEA projections, remained well below the average annual rise between 2010 and 2019 of 1.4 mb/d. The slower increase mainly reflected weaker growth in petrochemical feedstocks, notably in China, while continued growth of electric vehicles kept oil demand for road transport in check. Electric car sales continued their rapid growth, climbing over 20% to more than 20 million units – around one quarter of new car sales in 2025.

• Gas demand growth slowed markedly in 2025, rising by around 1%, down from the 2.8% recorded in 2024, amid relatively high prices in the first half of the year. Incremental demand was largely concentrated in the United States and European Union, supported by colder winter weather, and in the Middle East, where gas use in the power sector grew quickly. By contrast, Asia Pacific demand grew at its weakest pace since the 2022 energy crisis.

• Coal demand in 2025 grew only modestly above 2024 levels, rising by around 0.4%. In the United States, gas-to-coal switching and strong growth in electricity demand supported a 10% rise in coal use, reversing the trend of recent declines. Coal demand was flat in China: strong renewables growth pushed down coal use in electricity generation, while in industry, lower coal use in steel and cement production was offset by increased use for chemicals. Coal demand for power generation decreased in India, mostly due to an early, strong and long monsoon.

• The increase in generation from renewables and nuclear power in 2025 exceeded the total growth in electricity supply. The 2025 increase in solar PV of 600 terawatt-hours (TWh) was the largest-ever electricity generation increase by any source in one year, outside of periods of post-crisis recovery. The rise in solar PV alone met around 70% of electricity generation growth. Renewables combined now virtually match total global generation from coal. In the European Union, the share of solar PV and wind reached 30% in 2025, surpassing that of fossil fuels for the first time. Electricity generation from natural gas and from nuclear power continued to grow at the global level in 2025.  

• Annual global renewable capacity additions rose to a record 800 gigawatts (GW), of which solar contributed 75%. Battery storage was the fastest growing power technology: capacity additions rose by around 40% in 2025 to reach almost 110 GW, more than the highest-ever annual capacity additions from natural gas. In addition, construction started on over 12 GW of nuclear power capacity in 2025.

• Global growth in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions slowed further in 2025, rising by around 0.4%. Emissions from China fell due to the boom in renewables, structural declines in energy-intensive industry, and overall slower demand growth. India’s energy-related CO2 emissions were flat for the first time since the 1970s, largely due to cyclical effects from a strong monsoon combined with structural growth in renewables. A cold winter and higher natural gas prices pushed up emissions in advanced economies. Due to these trends, emissions from advanced economies grew faster (+0.5%) than those from emerging market and developing economies (+0.3%) for the first time since the 1990s.

• The rollout of clean energy technologies since 2019 avoided more than 35 exajoules of annual fossil fuel demand in 2025, equivalent to around 7% of global fossil fuel use annually. Deployment of solar PV, wind, nuclear, electric cars and heat pumps since 2019 also prevents 3 billion tonnes of CO2 annually, or around 8% of global emissions. The avoided coal demand (around 800 million tonnes of coal equivalent) equates to more than the entire coal use of India in 2025. Estimated avoided gas demand (over 260 billion cubic metres) is equivalent to almost half the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market.

Full report here.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 05:45

"Use The Momentum": The EU Moves To Destroy The Last Vestiges Of National Sovereignty

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The defeat of Viktor Orban in Hungary last weekend was celebrated by many who saw the former president as establishing single-party rule in his central European nation. The irony is that this claimed victory for democracy may fuel the establishment of a global governance system that is neither democratic nor accountable to citizens.

The European Union was criticized by many for taking sides in the Hungarian election and for undermining Orban, who asserted national priorities in disputes with the EU. 

No sooner had Orban conceded defeat than a jubilant European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for the final coup de grace for national identity and sovereignty: the elimination of the ability of nations to stand against EU policies.

Orban was controversial for his ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin and his lack of support for Ukraine. He was also accused of authoritarianism and corruption. I shared in some of those criticisms.

However, the unintended consequence of this election could be the removal of a single autocrat in favor of a global bureaucracy.

Van der Leyen helped elect the pro-EU Peter Magyar in order to remove a barrier to the EU’s ultimate exercise of power. The EU had been squeezing Hungary over its defiance by holding back billions in funds. Despite his tough talk on negotiations with the EU, Magyar is expected by EU bureaucrats to be a suppliant, willing to fall into line with the EU agenda.

The EU Chief has reportedly already given Magyar a list of 27 demands he must meet before she will turn the spigot back on. She did not try to hide the agenda, announcing that the EU needed to “use the momentum now” to consolidate its power.

With Hungary out of the way, Von der Leyen is calling for the EU to finally do away with the last vestige of national sovereignty: the veto exercised by its member states.

Under the plan, member states would lose control of their policy and could be forced to adhere to the priorities and values of the EU majority.

The EU Chief celebrated the new day of global governance in the making: “Moving to qualified majority voting in foreign policy is an important way to avoid systemic blockages, as we have seen in the past.”

In “Rage and the Republic,” I discuss the dangers posed to the American republic this century by the rise of global governance systems like the EU. The book explores how globalists planned to gradually get nations to yield their authority to the EU — destroying national identity and sovereignty in favor of an EU bureaucracy in Brussels.

As the EU moves to kill off national sovereignty, EU commissioners are calling for a single European military command, completing a longstanding globalist goal.

The 250th anniversary of our republic is occurring as we face an unprecedented EU threat. Our revolution was fought against a foreign empire. It now faces an even greater threat from a global government asserting the right to compel American companies to censor Americans and comply with environmental, social and governance or ESG policies.

At the same time, American figures such as Hillary Clinton are encouraging the EU to deprive Americans of their First Amendment rights using the infamous Digital Services Act to restore speech controls to social media. Other Americans have testified before the EU, calling on it to fight the U.S. Banners are now flying in Europe declaring, “We are the Free World Now,” as the globalists attempt to supplant freedoms guaranteed by the U.S. Constitution.

If the American Republic is to survive another 250 years, it must preserve key rights that the EU has been systematically destroying in Europe — freedom of speech, division of powers and political accountability of decision-makers.

That is why, I believe, the EU is inherently unstable and likely to ultimately collapse.

The EU has worked very hard to dismantle national sovereignty and identity in its member states. Historically, such collapses have been followed by different forms of tyranny.

Whatever comes next — and I could be wrong in my pessimism about the EU — the U.S. must take seriously the threat that this global governance system poses to our own values and sovereignty.

Von der Leyen is right that there is “momentum now” for the globalists, but the momentum of history still rests with the U.S. and its unique experiment in self-governance.

We saw this threat before, and we defeated a world empire. If we are to survive and thrive in this century, we will need to return to our own creation as a republic — to dig deep down and remember who we are as citizens.

Ours was the first Enlightenment revolution that embraced natural rights originating not from government but from God. We remain a unique people, joined by an article of faith found in our own Declaration of Independence. If this republic is to survive, it will be up to each of us, in the words of Benjamin Franklin, to “keep it.”

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 05:00

Gaza Needs Over $71BN In Next Decade If Enclave Hopes To Recover: New UN Report

More than $71 billion will be required over the next decade to recover and rebuild Gaza following the brutal Israel-Hamas war, according to a new report. Hamas leadership has been largely decimated, though the group has yet to be completely disarmed, and there are still calls within the Israeli government among some hawkish officials to simply conquer and promote Jewish settlement of the whole territory.

In their final Gaza Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) which was released Monday, the European Union and the United Nations said the conflict has had a "catastrophic impact on human development" and left the enclave in urgent need of massive funding.

UNRWA image: Destruction in northern Gaza.

A massive $26.3 billion will be needed in just the first 18 months to restore essential services and rebuild infrastructure, per the report. And much more will be needed in the years to follow if Gaza is ever returned to 'normal'.

"Physical infrastructure damages are estimated at $35.2 billion, with economic and social losses amounting to $22.7 billion," a joint statement said.

Gaza official remains under a fragile ceasefire agreed in October following two years of war triggered by the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel. Gaza health officials have stated over 75,000 people died in 2+ years of heavy Israeli bombardment, as well as ground operations.

The hardest-hit sectors include "housing, health, education, commerce, and agriculture, and the war has set back human development in Gaza by 77 years - per the report, also as reviewed by Al Jazeera.

There currently doesn't really seem to be much of a serious plan or much momentum toward rebuilding, however, given there are currently two competing visions for reconstruction of Gaza: one is Trump's 'Board of Peace' and the other is an UN-backed approach.

The United Nations and the European Union have said reconstruction must be "Palestinian-led" and based on "approaches that actively support the transition of governance to the Palestinian Authority."

But part of Washington's approach is to establish a sprawling multi-national military base inside Gaza. This could include some 5,000 troops - including potentially American soldiers.

However, the Trump administration has consistently stated it doesn't plant to put 'boots on the ground' in Gaza, but that could change. Turkey has been poised to offer some troops, but this is highly controversial from the West's perspective.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 04:15

Russia's Tuapse Refinery Attacked 2nd Time In Days, While Battling Oil Spill Into Black Sea

There's been yet another major attack on Russia's major Black Sea energy hub and port of Tuapse, after just a few days prior a drone wave had unleashed a fire so big it cold be seen from space, given the over 100-mile smoke plume that had spread over the Black Sea. 

In this latest overnight Ukrainian assault reported Monday, the drone attack killed least one person and resulted in more major fires, and now emergency crews are battling their second huge blaze at the site in under a week. There's been a massive oil spill into coastal waters to boot.

Screen

Last week's fires (which began with the last Thursday strike) had only just been extinguished at the Rosneft-owned refinery.

The prior drone wave had damaged residential areas, while this fresh attack has damaged a gas pipeline, a church and two schools - according to regional reports.

"Fire crews and rescue services are currently engaged at every site," Tuapse Mayor Sergei Boyko said, confirming that several locations along the export terminal were struck.

Ukraine's military took responsibility for the attack, as well as hits on two oil depots in nearby Crimea.

As for last week's initial assault, Russian media says it resulted in a significant oil spill into the waters of the Black Sea, with TASS providing the following details:

• An oil product spill into the Black Sea waters occurred in Tuapse after the UAV attack carried out by Ukrainian forces on the night of April 16, according to the regional operational headquarters’ Telegram channel.
• On April 19, an oil slick was detected in the sea on a satellite image.
• The oil slick is located about one and a half miles from the port of Tuapse.
• The area of contamination of the Black Sea with oil products amounts to 10,000 square meters, according to the Telegram channel of the Krasnodar Region operational headquarters.
• Specialists have also contained the oil spill in the Tuapse River following the UAV attack on the night of April 16.
• A total of 750 meters of containment booms and five specialized oil recovery devices have been deployed, and an oil trap has been installed.

These daily and nightly cross-border attacks have however largely slipped from mainstream headline coverage, given their frequency - to the point of being 'routine' (a grim reality).

Rosneft’s Tuapse Oil Depot and Export Facility in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, is currently ablaze, with dozens of tanks seen burning as thick black smoke pours into the sky, following a large-scale drone attack tonight by Ukraine against oil infrastructure across Southern Russia. pic.twitter.com/ZmtlLljYiI

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 20, 2026

Often even when refineries or major infrastructure is hit in either country, the event barely gets coverage in Western media at this point. With the globe's attention focused on the Iran war and blockaded Hormuz Strait, and Russia-Ukraine negotiations having long effectively collapsed, the war in eastern Europe is expected to grind on for some time to come.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 02:45

The US Demanded That Europeans Accelerate Their Transition To 'NATO 3.0'

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

This might be the US’ final warning before it takes drastic action to punish those who continue to reject Trump’s demands.

Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby gave an important speech at mid-April’s Ukraine Defense Contact Group in which he urged the Europeans to step up their transition to something that he described earlier this year as “NATO 3.0”.

As was explained here, “The idea is that NATO should return to focusing on defending itself instead of overextending itself in the Indo-Pacific, West Asia, Eastern Europe, and elsewhere”, and the preceding hyperlinked analysis explains how it aligns with Trump 2.0’s policies.

Circling back to Colby’s speech, he demanded that “Europe must accelerate its assumption of primary responsibility for the conventional defense of the continent”, including arming Ukraine through the “Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List” (PURL) program in which the US plays the most significant role.

To that end, “The need to quickly rebuild European munitions stocks is paramount, as is the need to remove protectionist trade barriers that stifle the continent’s industrial potential.”

He added that “Developing a robust, capable, and integrated European defense industrial base cannot simply be an aspiration, but an absolute pre-requisite for credible deterrence and defense.”

Knowing how obsessed they are with Ukraine, Colby then threw in that “This will be critical to achieving an end to the war in Ukraine, on terms that support an enduring peace.”

He then called for more “deeds and a fundamental change in attitude” from them to “accelerate this transition to a ‘NATO 3.0’”.

Colby concluded that “If Europe rises to this moment – truly embracing primary responsibility for the defense of the continent in line with our vision of a rebalanced ‘NATO 3.0’ – we will all be stronger and more credible in defending our people and our national interests.”

He also ominously warned them midway through his speech that “I underline the criticality of [NATO stepping up to help secure the Strait of Hormuz per Trump’s expectation] for our relationship going forward.”

As was assessed here last month and was just implicitly reaffirmed by Colby, the US might speed up its planned military reprioritization away from Europe to the Americas and the Indo-Pacific if they reject Trump’s request by ending its significant PURL contributions before NATO can replace them. That would facilitate a full Russian victory in Ukraine, or at least spook the Europeans into fearing that this is inevitable if they don’t step up right after he cuts off arms again, thus getting them to do what he wants.

If some members of the bloc refuse to contribute while others do, then Trump might impose his reportedly considered pay-to-play model that was described here, which would remove “dissidents” from decision-making processes and withdraw the US’ Article 5 support from them. These punishments could also be imposed for refusing to spend 5% of GDP on defense. It’s very likely that Colby conveyed these punitive plans to his counterparts on the sidelines of the event even if he only hinted at them.

His urging of them to step up their transition to “NATO 3.0”, which is his brainchild, can therefore be considered the US’ final warning before it takes drastic action to punish those who continue to reject Trump’s demands.

Imposing the pay-to-play model is one form that this could take while cutting off arms to Ukraine once again could be another.

Both could also happen together.

It’s unclear what NATO as a whole will do, let alone its individual members, but it’s obvious that Trump is losing patience with them.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 02:00

Iranian Woman Arrested In LA, Charged With Helping Iranian Regime Sell Drones

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Federal officials arrested an Iranian woman at the Los Angeles International Airport on Saturday night for allegedly brokering weapons for the Iranian regime, officials said Sunday.

(Left) Shamim Mafi is arrested at Los Angeles International Airport for allegedly trafficking arms on behalf of the Iranian regime, on April 18, 2026. (Right) Shamim Mafi. U.S. Attorney’s Office of the Central District Of California

Shamim Mafi, 44, of Woodland Hills, California, is a green card holder, according to U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli in a post on X on Sunday.

Mafi was arrested at the Los Angeles airport “for trafficking arms on behalf of the government of Iran” and was charged in connection to the alleged selling “of drones, bombs, bomb fuses, and millions of rounds of ammunition manufactured by Iran and sold to Sudan,” he said.

“If convicted, she faces a statutory maximum sentence of 20 years in federal prison,” Essayli wrote. “Mafi is an Iranian national who became a lawful permanent resident of the United States in 2016.”

She is scheduled to make her first court appearance on Monday in the U.S. District Court in Los Angeles, he said.

A criminal complaint filed by federal officials in connection to the case said that Mafi allegedly facilitated a contract valued at more than 60 million Euros (around $70 million) for the sale of Iranian-made Mohajer-6 drones manufactured for the regime that were commissioned to be sold to Sudan. She also coordinated a Sudanese delegation to Iran and received around $7 million in payments.

She was also accused of brokering the sale of 55,000 bomb fuses to the Sudanese Ministry of Defense, according to prosecutors, who stated that Mafi did not attempt to obtain a license from the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control for the sales.

“During interviews with U.S. Customs and Border Control officers and the FBI, Mafi acknowledged communicating with an officer of Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security,” prosecutors said.

Mafi also allegedly told the FBI that she could provide “extensive information about the Iranian financial system and money laundering channels” that the Iranian regime uses, according to the complaint.

The arrest was made as the U.S. government increases economic pressure on Iran in the wake of a U.S.-Israeli campaign that included thousands of strikes inside the country since Feb. 28. The Trump administration, which initiated a naval blockade of Iranian ports last week, is sending a team to Pakistan Monday to hold more talks about a possible peace deal.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters at a White House briefing on April 15 that the United States plans to ramp up economic pain on Iran, and said the new moves will be the “financial equivalent” of a bombing campaign.

Bessent said the Trump administration has “told companies, we have told countries that if you are buying Iranian oil, that if Iranian money is sitting in your banks, we are now willing to apply secondary sanctions, which is a very stern measure. And the Iranians should know that this is going to be the financial equivalent of what we saw in the kinetic activities.”

That same day, the Treasury Department said it placed new sanctions on an Iranian oil smuggling network, including around two-dozen individuals, companies, and vessels that were using front companies to evade previous U.S. sanctions.

It’s not clear if Mafi has legal representation.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 23:25

China To Import Record Amount Of US Ethane As Iran War Chokes Off Naphtha, LPG Supplies

One year ago, in the immediate aftermath of Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, there was a flurry of discussion over who is more reliant on whom: the US on Chinese rare earth materials, or China on US ethane output (see "Chinese Plastics Factories Face Mass Closure As US Ethane Supply Evaporates" and "Who Blinks First? China May Exempt Tariffs On US Ethane & Other Goods"). Following the detente in the US-China trade war, that discussion was quietly relegated to the back of the line, however the time has come to bring it up again.

That's because with the Iran war choking off traditional - and crucial - supplies, China is set to import a record volume of US ethane this month as petrochemical producers desperately seek alternative feedstocks for their operations. 

Shipments of US ethane are expected to rise to an all-time high of 800,000 tons in April, according to Chinese consultant JLC, which would be around 60% higher than the monthly average. Some companies can switch to using ethane, helping them offset disruptions to the supply of naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas from the Middle East after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Ethane is a natural gas liquid primarily used to produce ethylene, a key building block for plastics, and China depends almost entirely on the US for supply. The product became a political flashpoint between Beijing and Washington last year after the US tightened export controls during a bitter trade war.

Of course, this means that if Xi plays the rare earth cards in his upcoming summit with Trump, the US president can retaliate by simply shutting down China's plastics industry. 

US ethane has become the preferred alternative for China’s ethylene makers due to stable supply and lower cost, said Shi Linlin, an analyst with JLC. Profits to produce ethylene from ethane was tenfold that of naphtha as of April 15, which has been inflated by crude-linked pricing, JLC said.

A ramp-up of downstream production capacity has also lead to a pickup in demand for the gas. A new ethane unit developed by Wanhua Chemical Group and a multi-feed cracker unit by Sinopec Ineos (Tianjin) Petrochemical Co., have both supported higher imports this year, Shi added.

The International Energy Agency said last week that “petrochemical feedstocks display the most immediate effects of the war by far,” and that supply chains to Asia have been thrown into “disarray.” Japan has been forced to scramble for naphtha, tapping a range of suppliers including from the US and Africa.

In February, just before the war started, more than 50% of China’s naphtha imports and over 40% of its LPG purchases originated from Persian Gulf nations, according to Chinese government data. That supply chain has now been cut off for as long as the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. And while China may have a massive 1.5 billion oil barrels in strategic petroleum storage, it has no naphta or ethane, meaning its plastic industry is suddenly very much exposed. 

“The disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has really highlighted how exposed Asia is to Middle Eastern naphtha,” said Amber Liu, the head of Asia Petchem Analytics at ICIS. This year, naphtha-fed crackers have accounted for about 57% of China’s ethylene capacity, compared with 16% for ethane, she said.

China’s ethane buying spree comes ahead of President Donald Trump’s planned visit to Beijing in mid‑May, and US energy is expected to be part of the agenda. It could feature prominently if the Iran war continues to drag on. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 22:59

Iraq's Ruling Pro-Iran Bloc Races To Choose PM, While US Rejects Main Candidates

Via The Cradle

The US has suspended all funding and security coordination with Iraq, and shipments of dollars the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), until a new Baghdad government acceptable to Washington is formed, Saudi state-owned Al-Hadath reported Monday.

The US is also conditioning continued security cooperation on the disclosure of those involved in the bombing of its embassy, the news channel added. 

President Trump previously with the current Prime Minister of Iraq Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani

Nevertheless, on Monday, the CBI released a statement rejecting the Al-Hadath report. Since 2003, a decision issued by Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) head Paul Bremer has required that all Iraqi oil revenues be paid into an account at the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York, giving the US the ability to control how many US dollars are returned to the CBI.

From that point until today, the Iraqi Ministry of Finance has had to submit funding requests to the US Treasury, which then approves or denies them based on its own criteria.

This monthly transfer of US dollars, flown into Baghdad in pallets of hard cash, determines Iraq's ability to pay for basic needs such as salaries, food, and medicine.

Whenever Washington believes that Iraq is not aligned with US regional goals, including enforcing economic sanctions on Iran, Baghdad's major trading partner and a source of natural gas for electricity production, these fund transfers can be delayed or reduced.

The Coordination Framework (CF), the largest parliamentary bloc of Shia parties, has not yet selected a prime minister nearly five months after securing a plurality in the latest elections.

Former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, viewed by the US as "close" to Iran, was initially chosen to replace incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.

However, while Washington wants to replace Sudani, it also opposes Maliki's return to power.

"Last time Maliki was in power, the Country descended into poverty and total chaos. That should not be allowed to happen again," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform after Maliki emerged as a candidate for prime minister in January.

"Because of his insane policies and ideologies, if elected, the United States of America will no longer help Iraq," he said. If we are not there to help, Iraq has ZERO chance of Success, Prosperity, or Freedom. MAKE IRAQ GREAT AGAIN!"

Maliki was the prime minister in 2014 when ISIS conquered large swathes of Iraq, including the country's second-largest city, Mosul.

Maliki received much of the blame for the loss of nearly one-third of the country's territory to ISIS, which enjoyed covert support from the US military and Iraqi Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani.

The CF, which won 185 of 329 seats in the last election, must nominate a prime minister by April 26.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 22:35

Data Analytics Company Palantir Publishes An Ideological Manifesto

People on the far-left and far-right of the political spectrum rarely find any issue upon which they intersect and share common ground.  However, both sides have an almost religious fear of data analytics company Palantir.  Their reasons might be different but their reactions are similar. 

On the political left, Palantir is seen as Donald Trump's data gestapo.  They hate the company because it has created tools used by DHS and ICE to track down illegal immigrants using welfare and medical subsidies information.  It has also been an active ally in producing strategic analysis for Israel for the war in Gaza and Lebanon.  Leftists argue that Palantir is a "genocidal" corporation and a technological harbinger of "fascism". 

On the other side, libertarians view Palantir as the All Seeing Eye of Sauron - A precursor to total AI surveillance of the population.  They view former CEO Peter Thiel's presence in the Trump Administration as a negative influence.  Other conservatives argue that the company's relationship to Israel and its ties to the Trump Administration are more proof that the Israelis run the world. 

Palantir has recently posted a sort of manifesto, a list of values or principles linked to CEO Alex Karp's book "The Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, And The Future Of The West".  Many of the ideas presented run more in line with libertarian or conservative principles, but they also deviate into areas that will surely ruffle feathers and elicit distrust.  At the very least, Palantir presents a platform for debate about the future and the growing influence of digital technology on politics and war.  

Because we get asked a lot.

The Technological Republic, in brief.

1. Silicon Valley owes a moral debt to the country that made its rise possible. The engineering elite of Silicon Valley has an affirmative obligation to participate in the defense of the nation.

2. We must rebel…

— Palantir (@PalantirTech) April 18, 2026

The first thing to note is that Palantir seems to be openly advocating for American exceptionalism, which, in an era of far-left multiculturalism and open borders socialism, is a positive.  One could question how far the company actually wants to take this exceptionalism?  Are we talking about America first, strong national borders and a defined cultural identity?  These things are mentioned positively by Karp in his book. 

But, there are also tinges of a dream; a dream of American empire.  Again, this is a vision that is antithetical to libertarians and leftists alike, for different reasons.  Leftists want to see America (and western culture in general) destroyed and replaced with a new multicultural world order.  Libertarians (and some conservatives) want to see the US cut itself off completely from international affairs and foreign entanglements. 

Leftists are malicious in their goals and libertarians are unrealistic in their goals, but is an American empire really the answer to disrupting and defeating the liberal cabal which is causing so much decay in the west?  Once we get past our initial distaste of the concept of hegemony, the idea deserves a fair debate.  We have already seen the true intentions of the progressive elites; so what should we do to stop them? 

By extension, Karp in his book also addresses the inherent rot of the progressive Utopian vision and rails against DEI, woke ideology and the moral relativism of the political left.  He laments the erosion of a shared American/Western identity due to multiculturalism and "deconstructionist" influences since the 1960s.

He argues, though, that the solution to this weakening of moral and cultural structures requires technological ambition and global leadership.  He calls for a purposeful, unapologetic national project centered on hard power.  This is not going to make woke leftists with notions of a worldwide communist system happy.  It's certainly not going to inspire any approval from small government activists or anarchists. 

The Lord Of The Rings comparisons and "One Ring" memes will be rampant.      

Another interesting takeaway is Palantir's call for "Universal Service" instead of a volunteer military.  This simply sounds like a return to the draft, though Karp's rationale suggests that universal service would also require universal risk.  In other words, if the elites (along with anyone from the general population) can be sent into combat, then maybe there would be far less war in the future and far more respect for the political process.  

How this would be enforced, though, is the key question.  As history shows us, the elitist class has a knack for excusing itself from the risks associated with the wars they often start.    

When examining Palantir's social and political concepts, one is actually reminded of the government depicted in Robert Heinlein's book "Starship Troopers", which is portrayed as almost "fascist" in the 1997 movie but is actually written by Heinlein as a limited representative democracy based on merit.  In other words, only the people who participate in military service and prove their merit are allowed to be citizens, to vote and to run for public office. 

This, of course, would end the idea of inherent rights.  That said, there is ample evidence that some subsections of the population simply do not deserve the right to vote, because of stupidity, suicidal empathy or sheer insanity.  This sounds like a shocking concept today, but make no mistake, this will be a very serious debate in the near future as the liberal order continues to lead the west into self destruction. 

     

Finally, Palantir assigns an almost omnipotent value to Silicon Valley, AI and software's role in the future of society.  From crime reduction to warfare to cultural preservation, Karp asserts that AI will save the west.  This is highly questionable. 

AI has proven to be a valuable tool for data analysis, but the actual industrial, social and scientific benefits have been few and far between.  The research advantages are somewhat defined, but AI's greatest strength is clearly in mass surveillance and potentially in automated weaponry.  These are prospects which almost no American is keen to applaud (we've all read 1984 and seen the "Terminator" films).          

At bottom, Karp and his associates at Palantir might be sincere in their goal of defeating the leftist agenda and preventing the collapse of the west.  But, one has to ask if the ends justify the means?  Is it really possible to wield the power of a technocratic surveillance state for good?  A meritocracy that encompasses the government along with the citizenry is a noble vision, but not if people's basic rights are erased in the process. 

The survival of the nation cannot be the only goal.  By itself, the nation is meaningless.  It must be worthy of survival, and this requires Americans to stay true to the principles that founded it.  Of course, when faced with an existential war in which the enemy operates from within to sabotage the society and destroy its principles through insurgency, bending the rules might also be necessary.                

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 22:10

World's Biggest Physical Oil Trader Warns Of Months Of Price Volatility

By Michael Kern of OilPrice.com

Seasonally lower demand ahead of the peak summer driving season and the continued turbulence in the Middle East could extend the violent oil price swings for months ahead, the top executive of oil trader Gunvor has told the Financial Times.

“It is a little bit of a more challenging, softer period that we need to be careful of,” Gary Pedersen, chairman and CEO of Gunvor Group, told FT in an interview published on Monday.

“Frankly, it could be very choppy,” commented on the oil market Pedersen, who took over the top job at one of the world’s biggest physical oil trading groups after a management buy-out in December 2025.

Before the big shake-up at the group, Gunvor was accused by the U.S. Treasury Department of being a Kremlin puppet and was denied a license to take over the international operations of Russia’s second-largest oil producer Lukoil, which the United States sanctioned last autumn.

The recent violent swings in oil futures prices were partly due to what Gunvor’s new head Pedersen attributed in the FT interview to a “masterclass” in political messaging from U.S. President Donald Trump.

Oil futures prices have sold off sharply several times in recent weeks following various comments from President Trump that a deal with Iran is imminent or the war is “very close to over”.

But oil futures markets haven’t fully priced in the major disruption to physical supply that has crashed with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the severely constrained Middle Eastern crude and fuel supply.

Physical crude supplies remain very tight as buyers across the world scramble for replacement of the oil from the Middle East, Gunvor’s Pedersen told FT.

In a sign that buyers are rushing to lock in supply, empty supertankers have left Asia en route to the U.S. via the Cape of Good Hope in one of the biggest queues of vessels ever seen at sea—ships sent to load U.S. crude.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 21:45

Canada's Prime Minister Doubles Down On Militant Anti-US Rhetoric

Well before Mark Carney was elected as Canada's Prime Minister in the wake of numerous scandals surrounding Justin Trudeau, critics noted that the candidate represented a far greater threat to Canada's freedom largely because he is far more devious than Trudeau ever was. 

Carney is a central banker and high level World Economic Forum globalist well acquainted with the liberal "Reset" agenda, and it is no mistake that he has taken control of Canada at a time when European elites are pushing for an economic and geopolitical separation from the US.  The plan is obvious - To isolate the US in an effort to stop the spread of conservative and nationalist movements throughout the west.

In other words, the globalists/leftists are trying to build a new empire in a last-ditched scramble to prevent their liberal order from fading away.  Carney pretends as if they are breaking from the old system and starting something new by "calling out" the US.  In reality, it was the US that broke from the liberal system and refused to "go along to get along". 

It was the US that refused to conform to the multicultural agenda, open borders, ESG and DEI politics, the transgender cult and the indoctrination of children with socialist and LGBT ideology, not to mention the fact that so many foreign nations have been feeding off US taxpayer dollars for decades through institutions like USAID.

Vast numbers of their own citizens are rebelling against liberal governments.  Movements to stop the multicultural agenda and mass immigration are gaining momentum. Right-wing political parties are quickly growing, inspired by conservative success against the woke cult in the US.   

The liberals are circling the wagons, and it would seem that Canada is meant to play a key role in this "new order".  Prime Minister Mark Carney has been escalating his anti-US rhetoric since he entered office while threatening to build closer economic partnerships with hostile foreign entities like the CCP in China. 

As we asked after the Liberal Convention in Montreal, are Canadians being primed for an open conflict with the US?  The rhetoric coming from the nation's liberal government is sounding increasingly aggressive, and not just in terms of economic separation.  In his latest "address to The nation", Carney doubled down on his militant position, citing the history of Canada (including the War of 1812) as an ongoing battle against a "predatory" US.

It's fascinating to see a globalist like Carney try to paint the US defense against European influences as if it this was an act of war against Canada (which did not become a country until 1867).  The war of 1812 was instigated by the British Empire after their Royal Navy interfered with US trade, stopping American merchant vessels on the high seas and kidnapping men they claimed were British subjects.  They then forced these American citizens to fight in their war against the French.

Estimates of kidnapped Americans range from 9,000–15,000 between 1793 and 1812. The 1807 Chesapeake-Leopard affair, where a British warship fired on a U.S. Navy frigate and seized sailors, nearly sparked war at the time and became a major flashpoint.  Finally, the British engaged in arming and instigating an insurgency among the native Indians in the Great Lakes region in order to terrorize US settlements. 

Canada was a controlled region of the elitist empire back then, just as it is today.

There is no US invasion of Canada today, but Carney is painting a narrative as if this is an imminent threat.  US tariffs have shaken Canada to its core.  Over 75% of the country's exports are sold in US markets.  Their trade proximity made Canada one of the wealthiest nations in the world per capita and gave them one of the richest middle class populations in 2014-2015.  However, extreme-left wing policies have ruined Canada's economic advantage. 

This was not the Trump Administration's doing, it was their own doing.  Trump's opposition to Canada is partly economic (Trump wants more trade parity), but it is also predominantly ideological.  They are, essentially, a woke/globalist enclave looming on the US border and it is clear that they intend to act as a foothold for the elites in North America. 

Carney's rhetoric only reinforces the suspicion that there is an agenda afoot to isolate the US.  The problem is that Canada is already suffering from an unprecedented economic crisis, with inflation, high taxes and housing shortages crushing their middle class.  The threat is so great that provinces like Alberta are seriously considering secession.  Furthermore, there is no trade network on Earth that can possibly replace the highly lucrative arrangement Canada has had with the US. 

The Prime Minister's efforts to stoke "national unity" among Canadians by painting the US as the "big bad wolf" is actually setting them up for disaster.   

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 21:20

Chief Justice Roberts Faces Two Strikes After New Leak Rocks The Court

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The legendary baseball player and manager Ted Williams once wrote a letter to the Angels outfielder Jay Johnstone on improving his hitting. Among his pieces of advice was that “with two strikes, you simply have to protect the plate.”

Williams’s advice on not striking out came to mind this week when another leak of confidential information rocked the Supreme Court. (The prior leak of the Dobbs decision went unsolved).

For Chief Justice John Roberts, the message is clear: it is a time like this when you have to protect the plate.

Roberts, of course, is famous for his own baseball analogies. In his confirmation, he declared that “judges are like umpires. Umpires don’t make the rules. They apply them…Nobody ever went to a ballgame to see the umpire.”

Yet, justices do make rules not only in new precedent, but in the operation of the court system. Those rules are being broken.

In the same week as the new leak, Justice Sonia Sotomayor attacked her colleague Brett Kavanaugh as essentially an out-of-touch prig who had never even met an hourly wage worker.

It was an unfair insult and a departure from the Court’s long-standing rules of civility.

(Sotomayor later apologized).

Additionally, a forthcoming book by Mollie Hemingway on Justice Samuel Alito contains an embarrassing account of how Justice Elena Kagan allegedly screamed at Justice Stephen Breyer so loudly before the Dobbs opinion that the “wall was shaking.”

(The book suggests that Kagan was upset with Breyer agreeing to spur along the dissents to get out the final opinions in light of rising threats against conservative colleagues after the leak).

For an institution that prides itself on its confidentiality and insularity, the Court is looking increasingly porous and partisan in these leaks. 

Worse yet, people are indeed coming to the Court “to see the umpires.”

The most recent leak was published by the New York Times, which was given internal memos from various Supreme Court justices on the use of what is known as the “shadow docket” to issue rulings without oral arguments.

Notably, the leaks occurred after a controversial speech by Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson at Yale Law School in which she denounced the use of the shadow docket by her conservative colleagues to release decisions that were sometimes “utterly irrational.”

The memos reveal the concern of the justices that the Environmental Protection Agency was effectively gaming the system, imposing unlawful regulatory burdens on electric utilities despite a countervailing earlier ruling in Michigan v. EPA.

Chief Justice Roberts noted that the EPA was using the ongoing litigation to force utilities to spend billions of dollars to comply with the new regulations: “In other words the absence of stay allowed the agency to effectively implement an important program we held to be contrary to law.”

The controversy over the use of the shadow docket is immaterial to this story. The most immediate concern for Roberts should be that this is strike two: another leak from within the Court that was clearly designed to wound some of its members.

Unlike the Dobbs leak (which appeared to be an effort to influence the final opinion), this is a leak about a decade-old case. It had a purely malicious purpose to embarrass or disrupt the Court.

The question, again, is the identity of the culprit. There is no reason to assume that the same person was involved in both leaks. Rather, the leaks appear to reflect a deteriorating culture at the Court.

After the Dobbs leak, Chief Justice Roberts launched a fruitless investigation through the federal marshals to find the responsible person. The use of the marshals as the lead investigators (rather than the FBI) was criticized at the time. Roberts may have been sensitive to an executive-branch agency rooting around in the highest court of a sister branch.

The result was the worst possible outcome. The culprit succeeded in both leaking the opinion and evading any accountability.

The fact is that the Court’s culture and institutional identity have always been its greatest protection of confidentiality. In a city that floats on a rolling sea of leaks, the Court was an island of integrity and civility. The “umpires” could call balls and strikes without playing the leak game.

That culture is fast becoming nothing but a relic in the wake of yet another major leak. For the future of the Court and the faith of the public, Roberts has to set his reservations aside and bring in the FBI to find the culprit. Most importantly, he has to guarantee total transparency in allowing the public to see the results wherever they may lead. In other words, with two strikes, Roberts needs to protect the plate.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 18:25

Kuwait Declares Force Majeure As US Seizure Of Iranian Ship Escalates Tensions

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

Kuwait has declared force majeure on shipments of crude oil and refined products after disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz prevented some vessels from entering the Persian Gulf.

The move comes as tensions in the Strait escalated again following the U.S. seizure of an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the waterway.

According to Reuters, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation has notified customers that it is invoking contractual clauses allowing it to withhold certain scheduled deliveries after the blockade hindered access to the Gulf. The measure is not expected to result in a complete halt to supply. 

The latest escalation follows a volatile weekend in which the Strait briefly reopened before closing again after Iran linked the reopening of the shipping lane to the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade targeting its oil exports.

Iran’s foreign ministry said it has no plans for a new round of talks following the U.S. seizure of the vessel. U.S. President Donald Trump said a delegation led by Vice President JD Vance is heading to Islamabad for talks. Pakistan has tightened security in the capital ahead of the potential negotiations.

Iran has warned that it cannot guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz if its oil exports continue to be restricted, saying that security for shipping in the waterway cannot be separated from pressure on its own crude flows.

Shipping activity in and around the Strait has been disrupted again, with vessels altering routes and operators reassessing transit risks through one of the world’s most important oil shipping lanes.

After plunging late last week, oil prices rebounded in early trading as markets reacted to the renewed disruption and the risk of further constraints on flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

The renewed pressure also comes as Iran-aligned Houthis have threatened to target the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising concerns about additional risks to alternative export routes for Middle East crude.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 17:40

DOJ Shakeup In Florida Signals Major Escalation In Russiagate Criminal Probe

The Department of Justice appears to be gaining fresh momentum in its criminal investigation into the 2016 Trump-Russia collusion narrative, with a significant overhaul of the team handling the case in southern Florida.

According to investigative journalist Julie Kelly’s reporting at Declassified.live, longtime Trump legal advisor Joe diGenova - a former U.S. Attorney and prominent commentator - will be sworn in Monday as counsel to the attorney general. He will assume leadership of the ongoing grand jury probe based in Fort Pierce, the district overseen by U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon. That same courthouse was the site of Cannon’s landmark July 2024 ruling dismissing Special Counsel Jack Smith’s classified documents case against President Trump after she found Smith’s appointment unconstitutional. The grand jury has been active in Fort Pierce since January, Kelly reports.

DiGenova’s wife, Victoria Toensing, has also served as a key Trump legal counselor for years. In a notable earlier move, the Biden Justice Department seized Toensing’s cellphone in April 2021 during a separate inquiry tied to Rudy Giuliani’s efforts to examine the Biden family’s overseas dealings.

But wait, there's more...

The addition of DiGenova isn’t the only retooling. Earlier this week, acting Attorney General Todd Blanche removed the career prosecutor previously in charge of the investigation into former CIA Director John Brennan, who played a key role in concocting the Trump-Russia collusion scheme in 2016. According to CNN, assistant U.S. Attorney Maria Medetis Long was ousted “after she resisted pressure to quickly bring charges against the former CIA director and prominent critic of President Donald Trump.” Meditis Long notified lawyers representing several individuals who have received subpoenas or interview requests related to the investigation that she was off the case, the New York Times reported on Friday. -Declassified Live

Blanche has also sent one of his senior aides, Christopher-James DeLorenz - who clerked for Judge Cannon during the documents litigation - to the Fort Pierce team.

These changes come shortly after President Trump dismissed former Attorney General Pam Bondi earlier this month, citing dissatisfaction with the pace of the Russiagate accountability effort. In a pointed press conference days later, Blanche—whom Trump immediately named acting attorney general—made clear the department’s direction. “The president has said time and time again that he wants justice,” Blanche told reporters. “If you look at what happened to him, his family, his administration, the agents who protected him, people who just happened to walk by him on a given day, they got subjected to…massive investigations by this department.”

Blanche speaks from direct experience: he defended Trump in both the Florida documents case and the Manhattan hush-money prosecution brought by District Attorney Alvin Bragg.

Earlier this year the Justice Department did secure indictments against a small number of figures tied to the lawfare campaign, including former FBI Director James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James. Those cases were later dismissed, however, after a judge ruled that the appointment of the acting U.S. Attorney who filed them, Lindsey Halligan, was improper. That decision is now under appeal in the Fourth Circuit.

Still, many Trump supporters are demanding deeper accountability. While the initial charges brought some satisfaction, the expectation is for more significant action. A potential indictment of Brennan - who many view as a top target - now looks increasingly likely. He was recently subpoenaed in connection with his 2023 congressional testimony, in which he denied that the discredited Steele dossier influenced his 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment alleging Russian election interference on Trump’s behalf.

Brennan’s legal team has reacted with alarm. In a highly unusual letter sent last December to the chief judge of the 11th Circuit, his attorneys urged the court to block the probe from proceeding in Fort Pierce—viewed as a more conservative venue than Miami—and to bar Judge Cannon from any involvement. The letter claimed that Cannon’s prior rulings created the appearance of favoritism toward Trump and accused prosecutors of deliberately steering the case to her courtroom in line with what they called the president’s political retribution agenda.

If diGenova’s role expands beyond Brennan to encompass a wider “grand conspiracy” review - potentially covering everything from the roots of Russiagate through January 6, the Mar-a-Lago raid, and the conduct of the now-disqualified special counsel - additional high-profile targets could come into focus. Among them are individuals already the subject of criminal referrals sitting with the DOJ, including Thomas Windom (referred by House Judiciary Chairman James Jordan for alleged obstruction during congressional depositions) and January 6 committee witness Cassidy Hutchinson, accused of fabricating testimony about an incident in the presidential vehicle. This week, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard also referred two former officials—Intelligence Community Inspector General Michael Atkinson and analyst Eric Ciaramella - for their roles in advancing the 2019 Ukraine-related impeachment allegations against Trump. Both men have documented connections to the original Russiagate players.

Even Jack Smith may not be fully in the clear. Recent reporting from CBS News indicates that Florida prosecutors are examining documents linked to Smith’s prior investigation of the president. Smith could additionally face scrutiny for allegedly continuing to hold himself out as special counsel in court filings long after Cannon disqualified him, raising questions of contempt and potential false statements to Congress.

As Julie Kelly observed in her Declassified.live piece, diGenova—still energetic and far from retirement age—may be exactly the experienced, no-nonsense figure needed to bring decisive momentum to the Florida investigation and deliver the accountability many have long awaited.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 17:20

70% Of US Farmers Say That They Won't Be Able To Buy All The Fertilizer They Need In 2026

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

We might want to listen to what the farmers are telling us, because if they don’t grow our food we do not eat. Coming into this year, we were already facing the worst farming crisis in America in at least 50 years. Farmers all over the nation are drowning in debt, and farm bankruptcies have been soaring. In all my years, I have never seen America’s farmers so angry, and now the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has made things much worse. Spring planting season is here and there is a global scramble for whatever supplies of nitrogen fertilizer that happen to be available. As a result, prices have skyrocketed and farmers all over the planet are facing some incredibly tough choices.

That is even true here in the United States.

According to a brand new survey that was just conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation, 70 percent of U.S. farmers say that they will not be able to purchase all of the fertilizer that they need in 2026 because it has become so expensive…

Conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation April 3-11, the survey shows 70% of respondents say fertilizer is so expensive that they will not be able to buy all the fertilizer they need.

More than 5,700 farmers, both Farm Bureau members and non-members, from every state and Puerto Rico took the survey. Farm Bureau economists analyzed the results in the latest Market Intel.

The analysis reveals that almost 8 in 10 farmers in the southern U.S. say they can’t afford all needed supplies this year, followed by the Northeast and West at 69% and 66%, respectively, compared to 48% of the farmers in the Midwest.

Fertilizer prices were already at frighteningly high levels even before the war with Iran started, and since that time they have surged dramatically…

Nitrogen fertilizer prices have gone up more than 30 percent since the start of the conflict on Feb. 28, according to Market Intel. Combined fuel and fertilizer costs have also risen between 20 and 40 percent, with urea prices jumping 47 percent since late February.

Many people out there don’t seem to understand this yet, but this is going to affect all of us.

If 70 percent of U.S. farmers use less fertilizer this year, those farmers will grow less food.

If there is less food available, prices will go up.

Needless to say, food prices are already at ridiculous levels, but they are going to go even higher.

In impoverished countries, conditions will be even worse.

Due to a historic lack of nitrogen fertilizer, hundreds of millions of families that are currently barely existing “may soon find they are only able to afford little or no food”…

In many parts of the world, vulnerable families who today are currently managing to put some food on the table may soon find they are only able to afford little or no food.

“If this conflict continues, it will send shockwaves across the globe, and families who already cannot afford their next meal will be hit the hardest,” said WFP Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer Carl Skau.

I wish that I could get people to understand how serious this is.

Goldman Sachs is publicly admitting that the global fertilizer crisis is spreading a lot faster than they were originally projecting.

We desperately need the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened immediately, but that simply isn’t going to happen.

The Iranians continue to strangle commercial traffic through the Strait, and the U.S. has now “completely” cut off traffic to Iranian ports…

The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports is now fully into effect, “completely” cutting off Tehran’s international sea trade that powers about 90% of its economy, the U.S. Central Command said late Tuesday stateside.

The announcement comes at a time when the White House has been signaling a diplomatic solution to the conflict in the Middle East, as discussions around continuing negotiations with Iran are underway.

“A blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented as U.S. forces maintain maritime superiority in the Middle East,” said Brad Cooper, Centcom commander, highlighting that it was achieved under 36 hours of President Donald Trump’s order.

The Trump administration is convinced that this blockade will force the Iranians to give in.

According to U.S. Central Command, the first 48 hours of the blockade have been a resounding success…

But the Iranians are showing no signs of backing down.

On Wednesday, an official with the IRGC warned of severe consequences if the U.S. does not end the blockade…

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced Wednesday that Tehran would not allow the import or export of goods through the Persian Gulf, the nearby Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea unless the United States lifts the blockade it imposed earlier this week around the Strait of Hormuz.

Ali Abdollahi, commander of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya emergency headquarters, said the measures would be “firm and decisive” steps to protect Iran’s national interests and sovereignty.

According to Abdollahi, if the U.S. continues the blockade Iran has decided that it “will not allow any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea”…

In his statement broadcast by Iranian state television, Abdollahi said Iran would move to disrupt shipping routes in the Red Sea and elsewhere if the U.S. continued its blockade, initiated by President Donald Trump.

“The powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic will not allow any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea,” the commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said.

If Iran is able to successfully stop commercial traffic from traveling through all of those waterways, it will greatly intensify the economic problems that we are starting to witness all over the globe.

In California, the average price of a gallon of gasoline has already almost reached 6 dollars…

Gas prices are soaring across the country, but especially in California. The Golden State average is now nearly $6 per gallon — 40 percent above the national figure. That gap is likely to widen: UC Davis economists estimate that Californians could soon be paying more than $2.50 a gallon above the national average.

In the United Kingdom, officials are bracing for widespread fuel shortages in “two or three weeks”…

Sources told ITV News that the UK is ‘two or three weeks away’ from shortages of diesel and jet fuel, although petrol supplies are healthier.

The Government is said to be facing ‘difficult decisions’ over how to allot fuel supplies, including how to keep ‘ancillary power’ going for NHS hospitals.

If the war with Iran is not resolved quickly, this will only be the tip of the iceberg.

The Iranians are holding the global economy hostage, and they fully realize that this gives them a tremendous amount of leverage.

But there is no way that the U.S. and Israel will ever agree to their demands.

So for now we seem to have an unsolvable problem on our hands, and meanwhile the damage that is being done to the global economy is getting worse with each passing day.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 17:00

Tim Cook Stepping Down As Apple CEO; John Ternus, Head Of Hardware, Will Take Over

Confirming long-standing rumors of Tim Cook's replacement, after hours Apple announced that Tim Cook will step down as CEO and become executive chairman of Apple’s board of directorsm while John Ternus, senior vice president of Hardware Engineering whose name has been speculated as the next boss of Apple, will become Apple’s next chief executive officer effective on September 1, 2026. The transition was approved unanimously by the Board of Directors.

Cook will continue in his role as CEO through the summer as he works closely with Ternus on a smooth transition. As executive chairman, Cook will assist with certain aspects of the company, including engaging with policymakers around the world.

“It has been the greatest privilege of my life to be the CEO of Apple and to have been trusted to lead such an extraordinary company. I love Apple with all of my being, and I am so grateful to have had the opportunity to work with a team of such ingenious, innovative, creative, and deeply caring people who have been unwavering in their dedication to enriching the lives of our customers and creating the best products and services in the world,” said Cook.

Tim Cook joined Apple in 1998 and became CEO in 2011, overseeing the introduction of numerous products and services, including new categories like Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple Vision Pro, and services ranging from iCloud and Apple Pay to Apple TV and Apple Music.

Under Cook, Apple's market cap grew from $350 billion to $4 trillion, more than 1,000% increase; meanwhile revenue quadrupled, from $108 billion in 2011 to $416 billion in 2025. That's a more than 2x Price/Sales expansion under Cook, who showed that you don't need original ideas, you just need cash for buybacks, to be successful as a CEO.

“John Ternus has the mind of an engineer, the soul of an innovator, and the heart to lead with integrity and with honor. He is a visionary whose contributions to Apple over 25 years are already too numerous to count, and he is without question the right person to lead Apple into the future. I could not be more confident in his abilities and his character, and I look forward to working closely with him on this transition and in my new role as executive chairman.”

“I am profoundly grateful for this opportunity to carry Apple’s mission forward,” said Ternus. “Having spent almost my entire career at Apple, I have been lucky to have worked under Steve Jobs and to have had Tim Cook as my mentor. It has been a privilege to help shape the products and experiences that have changed so much of how we interact with the world and with one another. I am filled with optimism about what we can achieve in the years to come, and I am so happy to know that the most talented people on earth are here at Apple, determined to be part of something bigger than any one of us. I am humbled to step into this role, and I promise to lead with the values and vision that have come to define this special place for half a century.”

Additionally, Arthur Levinson, who has been Apple’s non-executive chairman for the past 15 years, will become its lead independent director on September 1, 2026. Ternus will join the board of directors, also effective September 1, 2026.

“Tim’s unprecedented and outstanding leadership has transformed Apple into the world’s best company. He’s introduced groundbreaking products and services time and again, and his integrity and values are infused into everything Apple does,” said Levinson. “On behalf of the entire board of directors, we are incredibly grateful for his countless contributions to Apple and the world, and we are thrilled he will now be executive chairman. We believe John is the best possible leader to succeed Tim and as he transitions to CEO we know his love of Apple, his leadership, deep technical knowledge, and relentless focus on creating great products will help lead Apple to an extraordinary future.”

“I want to thank Art for the incredible work he has done leading the board of directors for the past 15 years,” said Cook. “I have always found his advice to be invaluable and I appreciate his thoughtfulness and his unwavering dedication to the company. I am grateful he will serve as our lead independent director, and I look forward to working with him in my new role.”

Some more from the press release: 

Ternus joined Apple’s product design team in 2001 and became a vice president of Hardware Engineering in 2013. He joined the executive team in 2021 as senior vice president of Hardware Engineering. Throughout his tenure at Apple, Ternus has overseen hardware engineering work on a variety of groundbreaking products across every category. He was instrumental in the introduction of multiple new product lines, including iPad® and AirPods, as well as many generations of products across iPhone®, Mac®, and Apple Watch.

Ternus’s work on Mac has helped the category become more powerful and more popular globally than at any time in its 40-year history. That includes the recent introduction of MacBook Neo™, an all-new laptop that makes the Mac experience even more accessible to more people around the world. This past fall, his team’s efforts were on full display with the introduction of a redefined iPhone lineup, including the incredibly powerful iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max, the radically thin and durable iPhone Air™, and the iPhone 17, which has been an incredible upgrade for users. Under his leadership, his team also drove advancements in AirPods to make them the world’s best in-ear headphones, with unprecedented active noise cancellation, as well as the capability to become an all-in-one hearing health system that can serve as over-the-counter hearing aids.

Ternus led much of the company’s focus in areas like reliability and durability, introducing new techniques that have made Apple products remarkably resilient. He has also driven much of Apple’s innovation in materials and hardware design that have reduced the carbon footprint of its products, including the creation of a new, recycled aluminum compound that has been introduced across multiple product lines, the use of 3-D printed titanium in Apple Watch Ultra® 3, and innovations in repairability that have increased the lifespans of several Apple products. 

Prior to Apple, Ternus worked as a mechanical engineer at Virtual Research Systems. He holds a bachelor’s degree in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Pennsylvania.

Apple stock dumped on the (widely telegraphed) news, then recovered much of the initial drop.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 16:46

Half Of Americans Live In States Where Weed Is Legal

In August 2013, the Justice Department stated in a press release that it was not going to enforce federal law prohibiting the cannabis use in states that were launching recreational cannabis programs at the time, clearing the way for state-by-state marijuana legalization in the United States.

Approximately 12 years down the line, half of Americans live in states where marijuana is legal and another 105 million have access to medical marijuana.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz details below, this means that 80 percent of U.S. residents now live in a state with some sort of legal weed.

In 2013, it was Colorado and Washington which were gearing up to legalize marijuana after successful ballot initiatives as part of the November 2012 elections.

But the federal government's policy statement was also relevant for another 18 states and the District of Columbia, which at the time had already legalized medical marijuana.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Data from the Census Bureau shows that between 2012 and 2014, a substantial number of people continued to gain access to medical marijuana as larger states like Massachusetts and Illinois passed measures.

After those years, shifts to recreational weed legislation dominate the statistic with significant legalizations in California (2016), Michigan (2018), New Jersey (2020) and New York (2021), effectively lowering the number of people under medical marijuana legislation only.

Despite this, a total of 15 states have passed medical marijuana ballots or legislation after 2015, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Utah and most recently Nebraska.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Texas last year significantly expanded existing laws and is now counted as a medical marijuana state for the purpose of this chart, significantly pushing up the number of Americans under any kind of legal weed law once more.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 16:40