Individual Economists

Iran Ready To Let Japanese Ships Use Hormuz As Chinese, Indian Tankers Already Allowed Passage

Zero Hedge -

Iran Ready To Let Japanese Ships Use Hormuz As Chinese, Indian Tankers Already Allowed Passage

While Iran's decision to close the Straits of Hormuz in response to the US-Israeli bombing campaign was understandable, after all it's the biggest point of leverage the IRGC-controlled nation has left (it is certainly more understandable than bombing all of its Gulf neighbors in the process pushing them from being on the fence to being staunchly anti-Iran), there was always a bit of a glitch in Tehran's calculus: as we showed the day the war broke out, the biggest clients of Gulf exporting nations by far are China, India, Korea and Japan, namely Asian countries which - with the exception of Japan - are hardly allies of the US. Therefore, the countries that would be hit the hardest were those Pacific rim nations that would buy millions of barrels of oil daily from Gulf countries before the war, and now find that oil indefinitely blocked behind the Strait.

Nowhere has this asymmetric impact been more evident than in the price of Asian-basin grades such as Dubai and Oman, which hit a record $170 on Thursday before retracing modestly to $160, while at the same time Europe-heavy Brent has been trading around $110, and WTI crude which primarily feeds the US is trading just below $100.

As a result, it's hardly a surprise that while ideologically they may support Iran, Asia's largest Gulf clients are suddenly finding themselves facing crashing stock markets and a brutal stagflation. 

It's also why while the world's attention has been focused on the escalating daily attacks in the Gulf, which last week crippled global LNG supplies for years - in the process once again hammering Asian supply chains far more than the US which for years has been swimming in natural gas - there has been a furious backchanneling operation to allow passage for tankers belong to said Asian countries.

To wit, late on Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the nation was prepared to facilitate passage for Japanese vessels through the Strait of Hormuz after consultations between the countries’ officials, according to Kyodo News.

"We have not closed the strait. It is open," Araghchi said in a telephone interview with Kyodo News on Friday. He also stressed that Iran, which was attacked by the United States and Israel in late February, is seeking "not a cease-fire, but a complete, comprehensive and lasting end to the war."

Araghchi said Iran has not closed the strategic waterway but has imposed restrictions on vessels belonging to countries involved in attacks against Iran, while offering assistance to others amid heightened security concerns. He added that Iran is prepared to ensure safe passage for countries such as Japan if they coordinate with Tehran.

Japan relies on the Middle East for over 90 percent of its crude oil imports, most of which travel through the strait.

Araghchi made the comments in an interview with the Japanese news agency on Friday, Kyodo said. Japan relies heavily on the Middle East for its oil-import needs. The war in Iran prompted the Asian nation to release oil from its reserves this month. 

Araghchi, a former ambassador to Japan, has held phone talks with Motegi twice since the attacks on Iran were launched on Feb. 28. The top Iranian diplomat said he had discussed the passage of Japanese ships through the strait with Motegi.

In their most recent conversation earlier in the week, Motegi urged Iran to ensure the safety of all vessels in the strait.

In Tokyo, a Foreign Ministry official said Japan will carefully assess Araghchi's remarks, adding even if Japanese vessels are able to sail through, the surge in energy prices will remain.

A Japanese government official said that "directly negotiating with the Iranian side" is the "most effective way" to lift the blockade of the strait, while noting the need to avoid provoking the United States.

The potential de-escalation comes as Japan has also been under pressure from US President Donald Trump to help secure the strait. At an in-person meeting with the president earlier this week in Washington, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi explained to him the legal limits to Japan’s involvement in such efforts. At the same time, she highlighted areas of agreement, including a pledge to import more oil from the US and to cooperate on missile development.

But it's not just Japan. In recent days, vessels from countries such as India, Pakistan and Turkey have also passed through the strait.As a reminder, all ships that fly Chinese national flags are free to pass the Strait of Hormuz as Beijing remains Tehran's only financial lifeline. 

In another indication that Iran's stance on the Hormuz blockade is softening, the Iranian Navy guided an Indian liquefied petroleum gas tanker through the Strait of Hormuz last week, allowing the ship to pass on a pre-approved route following diplomatic engagement by New Delhi, according to a senior officer onboard the vessel.

As Bloomberg reports, the officer asked for anonymity, as the crew of his vessel — one of two Indian ships that made the crossing — were not permitted to talk to the media. His account appears to confirm analysts’ views that Tehran is trying to impose a traffic control system through the strait, permitting safe passage for friendly vessels while leaving others fearful of attack.

Over the past week, several ships have transited via a narrow gap between the Iranian islands of Larak and Qeshm, and tracked close to the Iranian coast.

They include two bulk carriers that had called at Iranian ports, and a Pakistani-flagged vessel, the Karachi.

The officer on the Indian LPG ship declined to give specific details of their route. They traveled with their automatic identification system, or AIS, system switched off, according to the officer and AIS data analyzed by Bloomberg, turning it back on after they were safely out into the Gulf of Oman. The officer said the ship was also unable to use GPS, which has been subject to widespread interference since the beginning of the conflict. That meant the crossing took hours longer than usual.

During the crossing, the officer’s ship was in contact with the Iranian navy by radio, he said. The Iranians took details of the ship’s flag, name, origin and destination ports, and the nationality of the crew members - all of whom were Indian - and guided them on an agreed course.

Before they entered the strait last week, sailors onboard the LPG tanker prepared their life rafts, the officer said. They had been anchored in the Persian Gulf for around 10 days when they were told on the morning of Friday March 13 that they had been granted permission to make the transit that night. On the far side of the strait, Indian Navy ships were waiting to escort them, with the national flag flying higher than usual, the officer said. The vessel has since sailed on to India.

Anil Trigunayat, a former Indian ambassador in Jordan and Libya, said that the fact India was able to secure safe passage shows that diplomacy is possible. “Iran also would not want to burn bridges with everyone at this juncture,” he said. “India, if needed, can also play the role of an interlocutor. These factors have collectively led to India getting this window.”

On Saturday, the WSJ reported that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he reiterated the importance of keeping international shipping lanes open during a call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Modi said in a social-media post on Saturday that he condemned attacks on critical infrastructure in the region, which he said threaten stability and disrupt global supply chains. He also “reiterated the importance of safeguarding freedom of navigation and ensuring that shipping lanes remain open and secure,” said the post.

While two India-flagged tankers passed through the Strait about a week ago, India is now negotiating for more ships to be able to cross, Indian maritime government officials have told The Wall Street Journal, and indeed overnight we received reports that two additional LPG tankers had crossed the strait with Indian navy protection. 

Iran’s threats to ships passing through the strait give the government in Tehran leverage over global energy markets, pushing up prices and creating fears of shortages of oil, natural gas, cooking fuel and fertilizer. Around a fifth of the world’s oil normally passes through the channel. Since the beginning of the war in late February, several ships have been struck by missiles or drones in the strait, at least two seafarers have died, and insurance costs have soared. There have been reports that Iran has mined the waterway.

“It seems that Iran is allowing select vessels to transit Hormuz after verification which takes place during the ships’ transit inside Iranian waters,” said Martin Kelly, head of advisory at EOS Risk Group. “While ships are being allowed to transit, it is mostly only to the benefit of Iran.”

Which is to be expected until some sort of ceasefire deal is reach, or the Iran government capitulates. But even if passage remains limited, recall again that the primary shippers through the Strait are already nations that are viewed as either openly friendly to Iran, such as China, or quasi friendly, such as India and now, Japan. Which means that a significant percentage of the ships that would otherwise be blocked by Iran, can pass through, and the actual limitation to oil and LNG passage is much less than the mainstream media reports. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/21/2026 - 16:55

Musk Offers To Pay TSA Salaries, Trump Threatens To Deploy ICE As Democrats Hold Paychecks Hostage

Zero Hedge -

Musk Offers To Pay TSA Salaries, Trump Threatens To Deploy ICE As Democrats Hold Paychecks Hostage

Update (1655ET): In addition to Elon Musk offering to cover TSA workers' paychecks during the ongoing shutdown, President Trump has threatened to place U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents at airports if Democrats don’t agree to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

"If the Radical Left Democrats don’t immediately sign an agreement to let our Country, in particular, our Airports, be FREE and SAFE again, I will move our brilliant and patriotic ICE Agents to the Airports where they will do Security like no one has ever seen before, including the immediate arrest of all Illegal Immigrants who have come into our Country, with heavy emphasis on those from Somalia, who have totally destroyed, with the approval of a corrupt Governor, Attorney General, and Congresswoman, Ilhan Omar, the once Great State of Minnesota," Trump wrote on Truth Social. 

The post comes after Politico reported that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is "planning to put a stalled" bill to fund DHS "on the House floor a third time next week."

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The Department of Homeland Security shutdown entered its 36th day on Saturday after Senate Democrats blocked yet another funding bill for Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the Transportation Security Administration, and other federal agencies, triggering weeks of chaos at airports nationwide, including long TSA checkpoint lines during the peak of the spring break travel season.

Early Saturday morning, Elon Musk, closely tracking the DHS funding lapse, wrote on X that he would personally pay the salaries of TSA agents to get them back to airports and help avert further chaos.

"I would like to offer to pay the salaries of TSA personnel during this funding impasse that is negatively affecting the lives of so many Americans at airports throughout the country," Musk said.

On Friday, a motion to advance a funding bill failed 47-37, falling short of the 60 votes needed to overcome a Democratic filibuster. John Fetterman (Pa.) was the only Democrat to vote "yes" on the DHS funding bill. Sixteen senators from both parties were absent for the vote. This marks the fifth time Democrats have blocked the Homeland Security Appropriations bill since DHS funding ended in mid-February.

Democrats have been absolutely furious over any funding bill for ICE and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) that does not include reforms to immigration enforcement operations. That is mostly because they are watching President Trump erode their political power by deporting the very illegal aliens their party allowed to invade the nation under the Biden-Harris regime. Remember, these illegals are the future voting bloc of the Democratic Party, meant to seize political control by disenfranchising citizens.

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) is planning to force a vote sometime today on a proposal to fund the TSA.

"The chaos at TSA is reaching a boiling point. We need to reopen it as quickly as possible. That is what Senate Democrats are intent on doing," Schumer said.

Related:

By the end of the week, 10% of all TSA workers did not show up for work - just below the record 10.22% absentee rate set at the start of the week. Nearly 400 agents have quit so far in the months-long shutdown, according to DHS. These workers have been without pay since mid-last month, when the Democratic Party began using these agents as political pawns.

The severity of the government shutdown this time has not yet reached the crisis level of travel disruption seen during the 43-day shutdown late last year, when air traffic controllers were used as leverage in political disputes, disrupting air travel nationwide. To prevent such issues in the future, perhaps privatization talks for these agencies should begin.

Is it possible that an unhinged, left-wing judge might try to block Musk from offering to pay TSA agents' salaries during the funding lapse?

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Tyler Durden Sat, 03/21/2026 - 16:51

Major Trade Group Releases Framework For Tokenized Gold

Zero Hedge -

Major Trade Group Releases Framework For Tokenized Gold

Authored by Martin Young via CoinTelegraph.com,

The major gold trade association, World Gold Council, and the Boston Consulting Group have proposed a new platform to modernize how the precious metal operates in digital financial systems.

The World Gold Council said on Thursday that it published a white paper on “Gold as a Service,” a new platform to “support the issuance and operation of scalable, interoperable digital gold products.”

The open platform would connect the physical custody of gold with the digital systems used to issue and manage tokenized gold products. 

“By standardizing essential market processes such as custody coordination, reconciliation, compliance, and redemption, the model aims to reduce operational complexity, improve access, and enable greater consistency across digital gold products,” the World Gold Council said. 

Crypto-native tokenized gold products include Tether Gold or Pax Gold, which have formed their own custody, compliance and redemption models, but the World Gold Council’s standard could have more sway with institutions due to the trade group’s prominence.

Features include audits, fungibility, and liquidity 

Key features of the Gold as a Service would include standardizing tokenized gold issuance and management, increasing digital gold’s fungibility, embedding audits and assurance, enabling interoperability with existing finance rails, and improving liquidity in lending and borrowing markets. 

World Gold Council CEO, David Tait, said that financial services are undergoing a “rapid and pervasive digital transformation” and gold must also evolve to maintain its role in the global financial system. 

“Shared infrastructure can help gold become more accessible, more easily traded and fully integrated into modern financial systems — ensuring it remains as relevant tomorrow as it has been for millennia,” he added.

Matthias Tauber, a managing director and senior partner at Boston Consulting Group, said, “The question is no longer whether gold will be digital; it’s how it can participate in modern financial systems without compromising physical integrity.” 

Commodities are 20% of tokenized asset market

According to RWA.xyz, tokenized commodities such as gold account for around $5.5 billion, or 20% of the total on-chain value of tokenized real-world assets, a segment that has grown by 340% over the past 12 months, as demand for gold has skyrocketed. 

Tokenized gold and commodities represent 20% of the entire tokenized RWA market. Source: RWA.xyz

Tether’s tokenized gold product has a market capitalization of $2.6 billion, up 17% over the past 12 months, while Pax Gold has a market cap of $2.3 billion, according to CoinGecko. 

On Thursday, crypto exchange Bybit launched a yield-bearing tokenized gold product that lets users earn interest on Tether Gold. 

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Tyler Durden Sat, 03/21/2026 - 15:10

Trevor Milton Is Back And Wants To Produce AI Powered "Fully Autonomous Corporate Jets"

Zero Hedge -

Trevor Milton Is Back And Wants To Produce AI Powered "Fully Autonomous Corporate Jets"

Trevor Milton, founder and former CEO of the now-bankrupt Nikola, is trying to mount a "comeback story".

Through social media, interviews, and bold public claims, Milton once convinced investors that Nikola was on the verge of delivering breakthrough technology with trucks. Now he's going to attempt the same in the aircraft business, according to a new report from the Wall Street Journal.

He has reemerged in the aviation sector through his involvement with SyberJet, a company focused on developing a small business jet known as the SJ30. The aircraft itself is not new; its design dates back decades and has changed hands multiple times through bankruptcies and restructurings. SyberJet acquired the program and has since promoted plans to bring the jet into full-scale production, emphasizing its speed, range, and efficiency relative to competitors in the light jet category.

Milton’s involvement has drawn attention because it places him back in a leadership context tied to capital-intensive, technology-driven manufacturing—an environment similar to the one in which he previously operated. 

SyberJet’s core asset, the SJ30, is designed to fly faster and higher than many comparable business jets, with a focus on long range and fuel efficiency. The aircraft has received FAA certification in the past, but production has been limited, and the program has faced persistent financial and operational hurdles. The company’s current strategy centers on securing sufficient funding and industrial capacity to restart manufacturing and deliver aircraft to customers.

The company has also outlined ambitions to expand beyond the existing SJ30 platform, including potential future aircraft development and broader participation in the private aviation market. These plans depend heavily on capital access, supply chain execution, and the ability to convert interest into firm orders—challenges that have historically constrained the program. As with many aerospace ventures, timelines have proven difficult to meet, and progress has often been slower than initially projected.

Photo: WSJ

Milton’s reappearance at SyberJet comes at a time when private aviation demand has seen periods of strength, particularly following the pandemic-driven shift toward private travel. However, translating demand trends into sustainable aircraft production requires significant operational discipline and long-term investment. The company’s path forward will likely hinge on whether it can stabilize funding and demonstrate consistent manufacturing output.

Milton has described SyberJet as more than just a traditional aircraft manufacturer, outlining ambitions to integrate advanced software and artificial intelligence into both aircraft operations and the broader private aviation ecosystem. He has suggested that AI could be used to optimize flight performance, maintenance, and routing, as well as to enhance the customer experience through more automated and efficient service models.

From WSJ:

He said the avionics the company is developing will integrate some level of AI and that he hopes “to display that in the coming one to two years to the public.” He said he wants SyberJet eventually to be the first to produce fully autonomous corporate jets. “Eventually everyone is going to have to do what we do, but they’re probably just going to buy our platform,” he said.

In public statements, he has also pointed to longer-term plans that extend beyond the existing SJ30 platform, including the potential development of new aircraft and aviation-related technologies. These claims position SyberJet not simply as a jet producer, but as a technology-driven aviation company, though many of these initiatives remain conceptual and dependent on future execution.

 Nikola was first exposed by short seller Nathan Anderson, founder of Hindenburg Research, after the startup released a 2020 promotional video, which showed its Nikola One truck rolling down a hill to simulate full functionality.

In 2023, a jury found Milton guilty of lying to investors about Nikola's electric and fuel cell semi-truck technology and sentenced him to four years in prison. He was then pardoned by Donald Trump and attempted to sue both CNBC and Hindenburg Research, but his lawsuit was thrown out in December and costs were awarded to both CNBC and Hindenburg. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/21/2026 - 14:35

MiB: Bill Miller IV, CIO, PM, Miller Value Fund

The Big Picture -



 

 

This week, I speak with Bill Miller IV, Chief Investment Officer and the Portfolio Manager for the Miller Value Fund about his start in investing. We discuss the rise of bitcoin, and how it may mirror technology in general. We also discuss his firm’s approach to high concentration and conviction investing.

A list of his current reading/favorite books is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (video), YouTube (audio), and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Judd Kessler, the Howard Marks Endowed Professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. The winner of the Vernon L. Smith Ascending Scholar Prize,he is the author of is Lucky by Design The Hidden Economics You Need to Get More of What You Want.

 


 

 

Current Reading/Favorite Books

 

 

 

 

 

The post MiB: Bill Miller IV, CIO, PM, Miller Value Fund appeared first on The Big Picture.

Britain Once Led The World. What Happened?

Zero Hedge -

Britain Once Led The World. What Happened?

Authored by Damian Pudner via the Foundation for Economic Education,

An unsettling look at the economic settlement that the UK now seems willing to accept can be found in the latest fiscal forecast, published on March 3.

By the end of the forecast period, borrowing will have decreased from 5.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024–2025 to about 1.6 percent. Public debt stabilizes at roughly 95 percent of national income. At those levels, even small shifts in interest rates matter: The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates that a sustained 1-percentage-point move in the Bank Rate changes government borrowing costs by about 15 billion pounds (about $20 billion).

In the later years of the forecast, economic growth limps along at about 1.5 percent, while unemployment is expected to peak at 5.33 percent. Meanwhile, the tax burden approaches an unprecedented 38 percent of GDP, the highest sustained level in the postwar era, as public spending remains significantly higher than its pre-COVID-19-pandemic share of the economy.

Taken together, these forecasts describe an economy settling into a comfortable equilibrium of high taxation, high debt, and chronically modest growth. Expectations are quietly lowered and economic underperformance is being normalized.

There is no ambition here. Nothing is reset. Nothing is reimagined. Nothing really changes.

There is something unmistakably Starmerite about the entire outlook. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s political persona is built on reassurance and managerial competence. The chaos will stop. The adults are back. Nothing dramatic will happen on his watch. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is no different.

But countries do not restore economic dynamism through managerial composure alone.

The UK was once the workshop of the world. Later it became one of the most open and dynamic economies in Europe. When the postwar economic model began to falter in the 1970s, the country eventually recognized that incremental tweaks would not suffice. Structural reform became unavoidable.

What followed was neither cautious nor gradual. The reforms of the 1980s dismantled large parts of the existing economic model and replaced them with something far more competitive. Nowhere was that clearer than in the financial sector. The Big Bang of 1986 swept away restrictive practices, opened London’s markets, and helped turn the city into one of the world’s dominant financial centers.

Whether one applauds or criticizes those reforms, their ambition is undeniable. That sense of ambition is strikingly absent from the UK’s economic debate today.

Instead, the state is not being structurally rethought. It is simply being financed more heavily. The clearest example is the continued freeze in income tax thresholds. According to earlier OBR analysis, this policy alone will be raising roughly 67 billion pounds (about $89 billion) per year by the end of the decade.

By 2030–2031, about 1 million more people will be brought into paying income tax, and roughly 1.6 million people will pay the 45 percent rate, a level originally introduced to target the “super-rich.” At the same time, another 1 million pensioners will be drawn into paying income tax. This is both unsustainable and politically corrosive.

As Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher reminded us, “You cannot tax a country into prosperity.”

The broader economic outlook is equally modest. Productivity growth is expected to recover only slowly, reaching roughly 1 percent annually in the medium term. That supports GDP growth of about 1.6 percent. Such growth may just about stabilize the debt ratio, but it is nowhere near the pace required to transform living standards or expand the country’s economic capacity.

Even the recent improvement in government revenues owes something to favorable financial conditions rather than deep structural change. Stronger equity markets have lifted receipts from capital gains and corporation taxes. Yet the same fiscal projections warn how vulnerable this is to reversal. A sharp fall in equity prices would quickly worsen the public finances. The OBR warns that a 35 percent correction in UK and global equity markets could widen the current budget deficit by about 26 billion pounds (about $34 billion) in 2027–2028. Even a more limited scenario—in which UK equities fall by 15 percent—still adds about 15 billion pounds (about $20 billion) to borrowing.

In other words, the strategy works provided growth improves modestly and financial markets remain cooperative. That is not a robust foundation for long-term prosperity.

Downing Street’s rhetoric is “growth, growth, growth.” The figures point to something more akin to steady, steady, steady or, perhaps more accurately, dull, dull, dull.

Growth is not being unleashed as much as carefully managed.

The economic horizon contains little in the way of bold reform or institutional redesign. For a country with the UK’s economic history, that is a strikingly modest ambition.

The UK deserves something more.

It cannot tax its way back to economic leadership. Nor can it rely on rising asset prices or modest productivity gains to do the work.

Increasing the economy’s potential for production would be the main goal of a more serious agenda: a tax system that rewards enterprise and investment rather than subtly expanding the middle-class tax base, planning reform that actually increases the supply of housing, and regulatory frameworks that promote innovation rather than administrative caution.

In short, something with the seriousness and disruptive intent of the Big Bang.

Political bravery will be needed for that. It will necessitate a government that is willing to pursue reform even if it goes against long-standing interests. Above all, it will necessitate a political elite that is prepared to acknowledge that cautious maintenance of the status quo is not a viable approach to national renewal.

The UK once set the pace of the global economy. Today, it risks settling for the careful management of mediocrity. And that, more than anything else in the fiscal forecasts, should concern us all.

 

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/21/2026 - 08:10

Switzerland Halts Military Exports To US, Citing Iran War Neutrality 

Zero Hedge -

Switzerland Halts Military Exports To US, Citing Iran War Neutrality 

Switzerland on Friday announced it is halting all military and defense exports to the United States, citing its neutrality, coming as the Iran war reaches the three week mark.

"Exports of war materiel to the US cannot currently be authorized," the government said, as quoted in Bloomberg. The statement specifically referenced Washington's "international armed conflict" in the Middle East.

Source: screengrab via Johnny Harris/YouTube

The announcement might not be a surprise, given similar past stances by Switzerland; however it comes at a sensitive moment where President Trump has been expressing frustration at Europe and NATO for not stepping up to help open the Strait of Hormuz.

There were signs of this coming:

Last weekend, the Swiss government said it had rejected two US flyover requests on Iran-related war flights but permitted three others, also citing Switzerland’s neutrality law.

Following the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, Switzerland imposed bans on flights over Swiss airspace and weapons exports to countries involved in the war. It later lifted them.

As for data on past American purchases of Swiss defense items, it's not significant enough to put any kind of dent in Pentagon preparedness, but it remains of a highly symbolic and political snub - at least that's how the White House will likely see it

According to figures in Trading Economics:

Switzerland Imports from United States of Arms and ammunition, parts and accessories was US$46.18 Million during 2024, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade.

Switzerland Imports from United States of Arms and ammunition, parts and accessories: But an important distinction is that the move only impacts official defense and military-use items.

According to more figures via Tradining Economics:

Much skepticism toward Washington and Tel Aviv's Iran adventure has been expressed this week from Europe. Iran "is not our war," said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. Also European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas similarly echoed: "This is not Europe's war."

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/21/2026 - 07:35

10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture -

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

• Inside OpenAI’s Race to Catch Up to Claude Code: OpenAI is scrambling to catch up in the AI coding agent space, where Anthropic’s Claude Code has established a formidable lead. The competitive dynamics are fascinating. Why is the biggest name in AI late to the AI coding revolution? (Wired)

• Traders Are Ditching Giant Hedge Funds to Set Their Own Terms: Some are eschewing multimillion-dollar pay packages and access to resources at big firms. (Bloomberg)

• Why Tech Giants Are Ditching the Power Grid: Seeking power for data centers, Meta and other companies plan to use equipment that is expensive and polluting. It is the industrial version of what homeowners might do to get through a hurricane. Some technology companies are planning to rely on off-grid gas.  (New York Times)

• The Tesla Influencers Leaving the ‘Cult’: Tesla superfans are defecting en masse after what many called a “bait and switch”—when your most loyal evangelists turn on you, you’ve got a brand crisis, not just a PR problem.  The EV manufacturer is supported by a robust online community. But Elon Musk’s politics and overblown hype about Full Self-Driving are turning some loyalists away. (Wired)

• How Jeff Bezos Upended The Washington Post: The Bezos era at the Post has entered a turbulent new chapter—layoffs, editorial shifts, and questions about whether billionaire ownership and journalistic independence can coexist. The billionaire newspaper owner, dissatisfied by years of losses, wants the newsroom to double productivity with half its budget. (New York Times)

• Chinese Diplomacy in the Middle East War: Talking with Arabs, Voting with Russia China’s diplomatic efforts this week have been worth a post. Foreign Minister Wang Yi has been working the phones. (The China-MENA Newsletter)

What the war has done to Iranians: A civilian in Tehran chronicles a country trapped between bombardment and repression—too terrorized to move, let alone start an uprising. (New Yorker)

• 23 Learnings on Building Community and Holding Space: A thoughtful distillation of what it takes to build real community—relevant reading for anyone managing teams, clients, or just trying to be more intentional about human connection. Re-composting learnings from failure, utopia, and everything in between (Wellness Wisdom)

Agents Over Bubbles. There is a weird paradox in terms of AI prognostication: on one hand, you don’t want to be the one to completely dismiss the most terrifying doomsday scenarios; who wants to be found out to be foolishly optimistic? At the same time, there is also pressure to give credence to the possibility that we are in a bubble, and all of this hype and spending is going to go belly up. Thompson argues the AI bubble narrative is overblown because agents represent genuine productivity gains, not just hype—a thoughtful counter to the skeptics, even if the timing is conveniently bullish. (Stratechery)

There are no psychopaths: Virtually everything you think you know about psychopathy has been thoroughly debunked. Why does this zombie idea live on? (Aeon)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview  this weekend with Bill Miller IV, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Miller Value Fund. Previously, he was at Legg Mason Capital Management covering specialty finance + consumer spaces with a focus on high-yielding securities. Miller competed in the Poker World Series Main Event. He began his career working for his father, famed investor Bill Miller III.

Metaverse was a costly wrong turn, but it’s hardly the only money-burning technology misstep

Source: Sherwood

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

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To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Weekend Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Smith: The Political Left, Multiculturalism, & The Dark Alliance With Islam

Zero Hedge -

Smith: The Political Left, Multiculturalism, & The Dark Alliance With Islam

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

For 15 years the FBI was engaged in a landmark investigation into the largest Islamic-based charity in the United States, called The Holy Land Foundation. The organization was operating as a front for Muslim terror groups, funneling cash from western countries to Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood, until they were finally put on trial in 2008.

Convicted leaders were known as the “Holy Land Five,” and included Shukri Abu Baker, Ghassan Elashi, Mufid Abdulqader, Abdulrahman Odeh, and Mohammad El-Mezain. Among the documents seized from these individuals during the investigation was a strategic paper drafted by senior Muslim Brotherhood operative Mohamed Akram in 1991.

The paper was titled: “Explanatory Memorandum on the General Strategic Goal for the Group in North America”. It outlined an agenda called the “Civilization-Jihadist Process”, also known as “Stealth Jihad”.

The memorandum gave detailed methods for establishing Islam as a “civilization alternative” in the West and a “grand Jihad” for eliminating and destroying the Western civilization from within. It called for the ‘sabotaging’ of the west and its “miserable house” by domestic hands AND the hands of the believers so that the west is eliminated and “God’s religion is made victorious over all other religions.”

The plan explicitly referred to using western society’s own people, institutions, laws, and unwitting allies (progressive groups and NGOs, media, politicians, academics, or civil-rights organizations) to advance the Islamic agenda.

Tactics included infiltration of education, media, government, finance, and alliances with non-Islamic actors “when tactically beneficial” while maintaining ideological separation. This is also called “long-term settlement” (tamkeen); a form of demographic or cultural subversion rather than direct conquest. It is often mentioned in the paper as “the settlement mission”.

A related 1982 Muslim Brotherhood document (called “The Project”) outlines a 100-year global plan with similar elements: building parallel societies, exploiting Western freedoms, and forming pragmatic coalitions.

One problem the Muslims wrestled with was the need for foreign alliances and western “advocates” to make immigration and the integration of Islam into target countries more “official”. Twenty-five years ago, this was considered all but impossible in the US and in Europe.  However, since around 2014, the Sharia fundamentalists found a willing and ready ally in the new “woke” left.

Today, the notion of even discussing the agenda of “Stealth Jihad” in a public venue in 2026 is labeled “racist” by progressive activists and left wing politicians (even though Islam is not a race). If you were to go back in time around 15 years ago and explain to people what is happening today in terms of third-world immigration, they would probably laugh in your face and call you a conspiracy theorist.

In 2026 in Europe the plan is nearly complete and in the US the plan is well underway. The change in how our society views Islam as an untouchable subject is largely due to a dark and convenient political alliance between the woke left and the Stealth Jihad.

Only recently has the problem of Muslim immigration risen to the forefront of media coverage, but only because of the work of citizen journalists like Nick Shirley who are exposing widespread fraud among migrants. The majority of this fraud, whether it is in Minnesota or California, is connected to Somali Muslim immigrants and is perpetrated with the help of leftist NGOs and politicians.

Coming from a country with an average IQ of 67, these people are not capable of instituting such a plan on their own. They had help and it is clear that Democrats are deeply involved in these operations, perhaps in exchange for financial kick-backs, but certainly in exchange for votes (Somali migrants in Minnesota voted 80% in favor of Democrats in 2024).

It’s not surprising, but there are a lot of similarities between progressives in the west and third world Islamic migrants from the east.

The political left has long held an agenda similar to Stealth Jihad. In Marxism it is referred to as “cultural hegemony” or “the long march through the institutions”. It is associated with the work of Antonio Gramsci, the founder of the Italian Communist Party. Interestingly, his ideas of cultural hegemony are often studied as a means of better understanding the agenda of Stealth Jihad.

Gramsci’s approach (developed in his Prison Notebooks in the 1920s–1930s) argued that in advanced capitalist societies the “ruling class” maintains power through cultural hegemony. To overthrow this, he asserted that revolutionaries must wage a “war of position” rather than a frontal assault.

This meant infiltrating and capturing key institutions (schools, universities, media, churches, judiciary, government bureaucracies) to erode cultural norms, reshape public consciousness, and create counter-hegemony until socialism/communism becomes the new ideological norm. We have witnessed this nightmare in vivid color with the woke movement of the past decade.  For the longest time the agenda was dismissed as “conspiracy.”

I would also point out that the general attitudes of third world migrants and leftists are essentially the same when it comes to production and survival: Both groups view producers as targets for piracy. Why would they integrate into western society, work hard and build for the future when they can feed off the production of others? Why create their own wealth when it is so much easier to pillage the wealth of people who innovate, construct and save?

But this partnership goes far beyond easy cash and socialized living into the realm of ideological and religious warfare. As noted, Stealth Jihad is about the exploitation of western freedoms and open systems as a means to invade and drive out the native religions (Christianity).

The Christian belief system is essential to western civilization. Whether or not a person living in the west believes in it doesn’t matter; they still benefit from the inherent Christian drive to build, structure and maintain a moral and ordered society based on rules for EVERYONE.

You would think that a partnership between Islam and the woke cult would be completely antithetical. After all, Muslim societies are defined by the rule of dominance, tribalism and brutal theocracy. There is zero tolerance in Islamic society for feminism, homosexuality, transgender theory or atheism. The Marxist world is rooted in atheism and moral relativism – The deconstruction of societal norms and the idea that unchecked hedonism is the ultimate form of freedom.

However, each group is beneficial to the other; they serve each other’s purposes. They also have the same primary enemy (Christianity). This intersection of benefits and shared hatred is where we find “Multiculturalism” – The agenda to wipe out the west using third-world immigration as a bulldozer.

Multiculturalism is simply an updated version of Gramsci’s Marxist cultural hegemony strategy, combined with third world notions of ethnic supremacy or religious supremacy. If you want to understand what is happening in places like the EU or the UK; if you want to know why these governments are completely ignoring the will of the public and blatantly aiding an Islamic invasion, this is why.

These are leftist governments with a clear objective to eliminate competing western and Christian ideals in order to establish a new cultural hegemony, and they are doing it subversively by using liberal values as a cudgel. Modern Europeans, fearful of ever being accused of “bigotry”, refuse to admit that they are committing high-minded suicide. Blind acceptance of immigration and the inability to discriminate logically is setting Europe on the path of total collapse.

This is what the Marxists want, and this is what the Muslims want. It’s much easier to pirate and enslave a population in the midst of social and economic crisis.

In the US we see a similar plan, though, leftists are working much harder to present Muslim migrants as ideologically aligned with liberalism. When conservatives see groups like “Queers for Palestine”, or we see New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani hiring transgenders for his administration while holding Muslim dinners on the floor of his office, what we are witnessing is the theatrical facade of “inclusivity.”

At bottom, these people do not share viewpoints that can truly “intersect”, but their short term goals are the same. Leftists hate conservatives and Christians because we represent a rules based order that stands in the way of their vision of pure hedonism. Muslims see conservatives and Christians as an obstacle to global Islam.

If the conservative west was theoretically defeated and we disappeared, the left and the Muslims would certainly turn on each other. Each group probably thinks they can control the other group when the time comes.

As the war in Iran moves forward, I have little doubt that we will see an exploding insurgency from leftists and Muslims in the US which will force us to question our foundational concepts of a “free and open society”. We will be forced to acknowledge that these exalted ideas cannot be applied to everyone. Specifically, they cannot be applied to people who want to destroy us. At bottom, the “rights” of people waging war upon us do not matter.

The question is, can we survive such a war and come out the other side with a constitutional republic intact? I think we can, but such a system would have to parse out and separate from ideological groups that see the west as a target (the Founding Fathers would NEVER have tolerated an anti-west invasion). We must accept, finally, that we cannot coexist in freedom with such people.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 23:05

Watch: China Claims Cyborg Breakthrough To Build An "Army Of Centaurs"

Zero Hedge -

Watch: China Claims Cyborg Breakthrough To Build An "Army Of Centaurs"

Researchers at Southern University of Science and Technology in Shenzhen have unveiled a wearable robotic system that adds a pair of independent mechanical legs and a torso framework to a human wearer, forming a four-legged hybrid to assist with carrying heavy loads across difficult terrain such as stairs, ramps, and uneven ground, according to the South China Morning Post.

Led by Chenglong Fu, the team of scientists designed the device to combine human cognitive advantages in path planning and decision-making with robotic capabilities for load-bearing and endurance in environments too hazardous or complex for fully autonomous systems. An elastic coupling mechanism synchronizes the robotic legs with the user's movements, allowing the hybrid to share more than half the payload weight while preserving natural gait and balance.

The system consists of two independent robotic legs and a robotic torso which can be attached to the user via a compliant elastic interface forming a four-legged human-centaur. Photo: Handout

In tests, the system cut the wearer’s net metabolic cost of walking while carrying a 44-pound load by 35% compared with a conventional backpack and reduced peak plantar pressure by 52%, fueling media speculation in China that the technology could serve as the foundation for a large-scale “army of centaurs” to augment the Asian superpower’s military personnel.

The Chinese military's ongoing investment in exoskeleton technologies to boost troop stamina suggests potential military applications for these human-augmented systems, though the device's bizarre appearance has prompted criticism and mockery, reports the SCMP.

The breakthrough comes amid the escalating rivalry in robotics between the United States and China. Recently, executives from Boston Dynamics and Scale AI testified before a House Homeland Security subcommittee, warning that China's progress in humanoid robots presents national-security concerns. Witnesses advocated for coordinated federal measures, such as broader export controls on AI chips and restrictions on government procurement of Chinese robotic technologies, to safeguard U.S. leadership.

As we previously reported, broader anxiety over China's manufacturing dominance extends beyond robotics.

Following a trip to China last fall, Greg Jackson, CEO of the British energy company Octopus, recounted touring a near-autonomous "dark factory" producing mobile phones with minimal human oversight.

We visited a dark factory producing some astronomical number of mobile phones,” Jackson told The Telegraph at the time.

“The process was so heavily automated that there were no workers on the manufacturing side, just a small number who were there to ensure the plant was working. You get this sense of a change, where China’s competitiveness has gone from being about government subsidies and low wages to a tremendous number of highly skilled, educated engineers who are innovating like mad.”

Australian mining magnate Andrew Forrest abandoned plans to develop electric-vehicle powertrains in-house after witnessing China’s fully robotic assembly lines where machines emerge from the floor to build trucks with zero human intervention over long conveyors.

Morgan Stanley analysts project the humanoid robotics sector could swell to a $5 trillion market by 2050, encompassing sales, supply chains, maintenance, and support networks, with potentially over 1 billion units deployed globally by mid-century.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 22:40

Inside Iran's Internet Access Black Market Amid 3-Week Wartime Blackout

Zero Hedge -

Inside Iran's Internet Access Black Market Amid 3-Week Wartime Blackout

Via Middle East Eye

Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Iranian authorities have sharply restricted access to the internet. According to NetBlocks, a group that monitors internet access worldwide, Iran has experienced a near-total blackout for 20 consecutive days. Connectivity has dropped to less than one percent.

For those trying to access the internet, options are limited. Some rely on Starlink, which is not widely used. The equipment is expensive and difficult to import. Iranians also believe is easier for the authorities to detect. Others turn to VPNs (virtual private networks) and custom configurations that can be installed on their phones to mask traffic and bypass censorship.

Elaheh, who like all Iranians spoke to Middle East Eye using a pseudonym for security reasons, has managed to get online with difficulty. She says she bought access through the black market.

WANA via Reuters

"There are people on Telegram who sell VPNs and configurations," she says. "You have to be lucky. Usually, someone you know has to introduce you."

She explains how it works in simple terms: "They don’t really sell a normal VPN. They give you a configuration. You put it into your phone settings, and then use apps like OpenVPN to connect."

Telegram remains one of the most widely used apps in Iran. People use it for news, communication and everyday life. Now, it has also become a place where VPN sellers advertise their services. But not all of them can be trusted.

High prices and scams

Maryam says she was one of the unlucky ones. She found a seller through a friend. He offered her a one-week unlimited VPN for 70m rials - roughly $45-$50.

"I paid the money," she says. "But after that, he told me all the connection routes had been blocked by the government, and that it wasn’t possible to connect."

Days later, she is still waiting. The seller keeps making excuses. He has not provided access and has not returned her money. Stories like hers are becoming more common, but there are plenty of trustworthy sellers on the black market too.

Alireza, 32, studied computer engineering and now sells VPN access. He agreed to explain how the system works, though he is clearly worried about the risks.

"When the internet is restricted in Iran, usually one of two things happens," he says. "Either certain websites are blocked, or the connection to the global internet becomes slow or limited."

He says the system is not completely shut down. "It’s controlled and filtered," he says. "That’s why we can still find ways to provide access."

According to Alireza, users buy a technical setup, not just a simple app. "We give them a configuration," he says. "It includes the server address, port, protocol, and encryption key."

Users then connect through tools like OpenVPN or V2Ray, which route their traffic through servers outside Iran. "In simple terms, it looks like they are connecting from another country," he says.

Warnings and risks

Using these tools is not without risk. Arman, a VPN user, says the connection is unstable and often cuts out. But what worries him more are the warnings. "I’ve received several text messages," he says. "They said security agencies know I’ve been connecting to the global internet."

The messages warned that if he continued, he could face consequences. Since the start of the war, Iranian security and law enforcement officials have repeatedly announced that they have arrested people accused of selling VPNs and other tools that help users bypass internet restrictions.

Alireza says the situation has become more serious than before. "This is no longer just about selling VPNs," he says. "It has become a security issue." Sellers are now much more careful. "We prefer to deal only with people we already know," he says. "Even a phone call or a message could be from security forces."

Prices keep rising

As the blackout continues, prices are rising fast. Pegah, 29, says she has had internet access since the early days of the war - but it has become more expensive each week.

"At first, I bought a one-week package for 10m rials," she says. "I didn’t trust the seller enough to buy more."

A week later, the price jumped. "It went up to 30 million," she says. "And when I wanted to buy for a friend, the seller said it had increased again - to 50 million per week."

She says she was lucky. Her connection works. Others have not been so fortunate. "One of my friends paid 100m rials," she says. "And most of the time, the connection didn’t even work."

Access to the internet has become expensive, unreliable and uncertain. But it’s a familiar pattern. In recent years, cutting internet access has become a common response by authorities during times of crisis - whether protests or external conflict. Elaheh says the impact is immediate.

"They always take it out on ordinary people first," she says. "This kind of shutdown just creates more anger." She pauses, then adds: "I really don’t know what goes through the minds of those making these decisions. It feels like all they know is how to make people more frustrated."

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 22:15

First-Ever Look At America's Classified RQ-180 Stealth Drone?

Zero Hedge -

First-Ever Look At America's Classified RQ-180 Stealth Drone?

The world is seemingly at war. With multi-front conflicts raging in Eastern Europe and intensifying in the Middle East, this period of elevated World War III risk has coincided with the emergence of some of America’s most advanced stealth aircraft.

The latest sighting comes from the Greek news website OnLarissa, which reports that a planespotter captured a "mysterious" stealth-bomber-like aircraft operating near Larissa, Greece, near the Hellenic Air Force (HAF) base.

The local outlet stated, "The ferocious warplane was reportedly parked due to a malfunction at the 110th Fighter Wing military airfield," adding that the plane was likely an "American superweapon, the Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit."

However, well-seasoned US-based journalists who specialize in aviation and military coverage at The Aviationist disagree with OnLarissa's assessment that the plane is the B-2 Spirit. In fact, they suggest this could be the first-ever glimpse of the highly classified, next-generation stealth surveillance drone, the RQ-180, developed by Northrop Grumman.

"The closest match we can find, corroborated by anonymous sources with some familiarity with the clandestine jet, is with the famous (yet still classified) intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance UAV operated by the U.S. Air Force that we have come to know as the RQ-180," The Aviationist reporter Kai Greet wrote in a note.

Greet pointed out, "Larissa is no stranger to a U.S. military presence, and has hosted MQ-9 Reaper detachments on an ongoing basis. It does remain unclear, though, if these images genuinely depict an RQ-180." 

Across the Atlantic and over the Mojave Desert, a planespotter captured what he believed was the USAF testing the B-21 Raider stealth bomber earlier this week (view here).

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 21:50

Tax Season Will Bring Record Refunds. Use Them Wisely

Zero Hedge -

Tax Season Will Bring Record Refunds. Use Them Wisely

Authored by Marc Cadin via RealClearMarkets,

Affordability is the defining economic challenge for millions of Americans. A recent poll found that 70% of Americans report that the cost of living is no longer affordable where they live, a concern that was highlighted in the most recent elections. From rising housing costs to the grocery aisle to the electricity bill, families are struggling to stay afloat.  

This year, however, many households will finally get relief thanks to a new federal policy. 

Signed into law this summer, the Working Families Tax Cut will deliver one of the largest tax refunds on record.  According to early estimates, the average tax filer will receive more than $3,700, a roughly $1000 increase from previous years. Military families are expected to receive an additional $1,776

At a time when families’ budgets are stretched thin, this policy is putting real cash into their wallets.  

There will be plenty of headlines this spring about the large refunds Americans will receive. But the success of this policy shouldn’t be measured by the dollars distributed this year. The larger question is whether American families will be more financially secure in the decades to come.  

For many households, this will be a financial inflection point. These refund checks can make a pivotal difference in creating an emergency fund, preparing for retirement, and saving for college tuition. 

When the large refund hits a checking account, however, the easiest decision is often the fastest one. Immediate needs and flashy purchases compete for our attention, while building savings requires an attention to detail that can be difficult in the moment.

Americans want to build a strong economic future, but personal finance continues to challenge us.  More than 60% of Americans don’t have a written financial plan, and nearly two-thirds couldn’t pass a financial literacy test.  

These financial illiteracy gaps come at a real cost.  On average, Americans lose $1,000 per year due to a lack of financial knowledge. Without the right tools and guidance, historic tax refunds may fail to improve long-term financial security. 

This policy won’t guarantee financial health alone. The real test is whether these refunds translate into long-term financial well-being. 

  • Some families may take advantage of existing savings incentives. From 529 college plans to the Trump Savings Accounts, there are plenty of already established government programs that allow Americans to stretch today’s dollars into tomorrow’s security.  
  • Others will invest in low-risk, high-yield options. These accounts may lack the flash of crypto, but compound interest gives families the ability to build stability.  A high-yield savings account typically returns around 4% annually, and the S&P 500 returns around 10%. These accounts require minimal maintenance and will create the savings necessary for long-term savings. If you continuously put your money away there, decades down the road, you will see your money expand. 

  • Many families will consult experts. In every community, financial professionals can advise on how to create a portfolio that makes sense for a family and their future. Financial planning is like going to the dentist. If you stay on top of your annual check-ups, your financial health will improve. 

The Working Families Tax Cut provides millions of Americans with a rare chance to reset their finances. Whether it becomes a fleeting windfall or the foundation of a lasting fiscal health will depend on what families do next.

Marc Cadin is the CEO of Finseca, an organization of more than 6000 financial security professionals dedicated to helping people protect and enhance their financial well-being. Finseca stands for Financial Security for All.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 21:25

IDF Iron Dome Operator Arrested, Charged With Spying For Iran

Zero Hedge -

IDF Iron Dome Operator Arrested, Charged With Spying For Iran

There's quite obviously been Israeli intelligence inroads into Iran, which at times US and Israeli officials themselves have boasted about, with Tehran recently announcing efforts to round up and arrest "traitors" - and there's even in some cases been executions of the accused.

Inside Israel, there are also fears of locals spying for Israel - but the phenomenon remains much less common (as far as anyone knows). That's why the latest headlines are likely a shock to the Israeli establishment. On Friday an Israeli reservist tied to the country’s missile defense network has been charged with serious security offenses after allegedly working with Iranian intelligence.

Police have identified Raz Cohen, a 26-year-old from Jerusalem, who served in the Iron Dome unit, as the alleged culprit. It's been revealed he was arrested March 1, merely one day after the joint US-Israel war on Iran kicked off. "These included passing sensitive security information to the Iranian agent during December 2025, including details about how Iron Dome works, locations of Israeli Air Force bases, and the locations of Iron Dome batteries," writes Times of Israel.

via Anadolu Agency

As for the period of time in which the alleged spying took place, authorities indicate it took place several months before the outbreak of the current war, and that Cohen knew exactly who he was communicating with, but is believed to have merely received $1000 in cryptocurrency.

Israeli law designates that assisting the enemy during wartime carries a maximum sentence of life imprisonment; but in some exceptional cases the death penalty can be handed down.

Prosecutors say he was in contact for months with Iranian handlers, who tasked him with carrying out "a variety of security missions" - including passing along sensitive defense information he accessed during his service.

According to some observations in The Telegraph:

A police statement announcing the charges warned citizens against having contact with agents from enemy countries, and pointed out the particular risk of agents making contact via social media.

Israel itself is thought to make widespread use of social media to approach and recruit agents in Iran.

According to intelligence sources speaking before the current campaign, many Iranians who end up passing information to Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, never realize they are working for Israel.

These fresh reports of the Raz Cohen are huge, given Israel's air defenses have been immensely strained by the sustained Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks which have been ongoing, and ebbing and flowing, since Iran was attacked by the US and Israel three weeks ago.

There are also reports that portions of the Israeli citizenry are angry and frustrated, many now living their lives in underground bomb shelters, as casualties mount. The Netanyahu government has come under accusations of underestimating the Iranian missile threat, and giving false assurances to the public. Did Iran have an advantage by utilizing spies in Israel who had access to key elements of defensive systems, exposing weaknesses? It appears so, the Cohen case suggests, at least to some degree.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 21:00

The Scapegoat: How One Man's Career Was Ended By MeToo

Zero Hedge -

The Scapegoat: How One Man's Career Was Ended By MeToo

Authored by Nancy Rommelmann via RealClearInvestigations,

Life on Jan. 9, 2020, was interesting for Joshua Helmer. At 31, he was midway through his second year as CEO of the Erie Art Museum in Pennsylvania.

He had recently secured the loan of a Chuck Close painting from the Philadelphia Museum of Art, and an upcoming sale, including a painting by another famous artist, David Hockney, would help Erie generate funds to buy new works.

And then it was Jan. 10.

"I knew I'd never work again," Helmer said, recalling his reading of a New York Times article that ran that day. 

"He Left a Museum After Women Complained; His Next Job Was Bigger," was co-bylined by veteran Times reporter Robin Pogrebin and Zachary Small, then a freelancer. The article listed allegations from women against Helmer from his time as assistant director for interpretation at the Philadelphia Museum of Art (PMA), a position he said he resigned from a year-and-a-half earlier. 

Nine women told the Times that Helmer made “advances” toward them, and four of these co-workers said they became romantically involved or lived with Helmer both during and after his tenure at PMA. The allegations ranged from the women being made to feel as though Helmer had the power to hold back their promotions, to his yelling at them, insulting their intelligence, or saying things they found unnerving; a woman identified as "a former Philadelphia Eagles cheerleader" told the Times, “I worked in the NFL for five years and no one spoke to me in a way that made me feel that uncomfortable.” 

There were no public allegations that Helmer directly pressured any of the women to have sex or engaged in any unwanted sexual behavior. He did allegedly suggest to one woman that she should “get to know him” to help her career, according to the Times.

There was one additional complaint from an Erie Art Museum female intern who provided the Times with a screenshot of a text Helmer sent, asking whether she wanted to have a coffee on the deck of his apartment, to which she replied, "No. Can't sorry."

Six years on, the fervor of MeToo has cooled. While some people brought down by MeToo gained a semblance of their previous standing, others, like Helmer, have not. He self-exiled to northern Pennsylvania, took up woodworking, and hasn't worked again.

At the peak of MeToo, arguing that permanent banishment might be too much was a nonstarter. How could women (and some men) feel safe if those who sexually preyed on them were not shunned in ways that assured they could never prey on anyone else again? There was solidarity in seeing men get their comeuppance, a sense of pride for having the courage to come together with other women and speak up. That campaigns could get overheated, destroying the careers of some men whose actions, while sometimes troubling, might not deserve such harsh punishment, did not at the time seem worth considering. Who cared what happened to guys like Helmer? 

“A Weird Day”

The Times did not paint Helmer as a 100% cad. "Women who dated Mr. Helmer said they were attracted to him at first because they found him warm, affectionate and confident," the authors wrote. While all said the relationships had been consensual, each of Helmer's accusers eventually felt undervalued, belittled, or suspected they had been retaliated against. 

Although the women said they felt emotionally abused by Helmer, he never faced lawsuits stemming from their allegations. And while the Times insinuated some official wrongdoing – writing that “Mr. Helmer resigned for reasons that have not been disclosed” – Helmer told the newspaper he had left of his own accord. That his departure from PMA did not seem clearly connected to the women’s accusations made it all the more curious that the newspaper saw the story as worth running on Page 1 of the Arts section.

Or would have been curious, had it not been January 2020, when MeToo was at full velocity. Hundreds of well-known, powerful figures had and were about to lose their careers (Matt Lauer, Mario Batali, Kevin Spacey); some went to prison for charges as serious as serial rape (Harvey Weinstein, Bill Cosby, Danny Masterson).

Helmer was not accused of monstrous acts, nor was he well-known or powerful. He earned $70,000 a year at PMA. He was not executive-level and, according to a former department coordinator at PMA, did not have the authority to hire, fire, or promote, a detail that might have tempered the implied power imbalance the Times piece was in part predicated on.

Another detail that could have given the Times reporters pause came from the Erie Art Museum board president, who emailed the paper to say that, aside from the declined coffee invitation, "no other allegations had been brought to the board’s attention." Nevertheless, the consequences for Helmer were immediate. 

"The phone's ringing off the hook nonstop. And that night we had an emergency board meeting," Helmer said in an interview with RealClearInvestigations. "The board members came into my office, and they were like, 'There's just no way forward from this.'"

Without the institutional stamina to fight whatever might be coming their way, Erie accepted Helmer's resignation on Jan. 13, after which, Helmer recalled, the board president drove him home. "We sat in the driveway, and I was like, 'Wow, that was a weird day.'"

The weirdness continued. In the two months after Helmer left Erie, the Times ran four more pieces about the saga. Each article was co-bylined by Zachary Small, who had initially looked into Helmer for The Art Newspaper, an influential visual arts outlet where Small was then associate editor for investigations. The Art Newspaper, however, declined to run the Helmer piece because, as the paper's former editor, Alison Cole, recently told RCI, "The Art Newspaper only runs stories we can verify." 

Symbol of Male Dominance

The Times, on the other hand, evidently saw Helmer as part of a larger story about the male dominance of the museum world. 

"This [story] was somewhat informed by a much larger culture of patriarchy at these institutions," Robin Pogrebin said on the podcast Museum Confidential, four days after the Times ran the story detailing Helmer's exit from Erie. "I think it's important to think about this as a referendum on the industry to some extent and how important it is to have more balance in terms of gender."

If the aftereffects came quickly for Helmer, they also came for Small, who, up until the Helmer piece, had contributed two pieces to the Times. In 2020, Small (who uses they/them pronouns) had 41 bylines in the paper. In 2023, they became a staff writer. 

Which might have been the end of the story but for an incident in November 2025, when the then-CEO at the Philadelphia Museum of Art was fired, thus dragging Helmer's name back onstage.

"I'm like a recurring character in a sitcom or soap opera," Helmer said. "The [audience] is like, 'Oh, we thought he was kicked in the head by a horse. Oh, he's back!' You make these small cameos. And then to see another piece added on five years later... it'll never be done."

The Maw of MeToo

There are many essential reasons to uncover the rot that historically allowed sexual misconduct to be swept away. Two reporters rightly celebrated for their MeToo coverage were Jodi Kantor and Megan Twohey at the Times, whose 2017 expose, “Harvey Weinstein Paid Off Sexual Harassment Accusers for Decades," won the 2018 Pulitzer Prize for Public Service for detailing the sexual crimes of the powerful head of Miramax Films. This was important work, revealing the power imbalance felt by many women in Weinstein's orbit, a disparity that could lead to fear – of having one's career sabotaged and for one's personal safety – and acquiescing to Weinstein's demands for sex. It was also careful work. According to two high-level employees at the Times, when the Weinstein expose ran, Kantor and Twohey did not include several accusers whose stories they did not feel could be made watertight.

Three years later, such care at the paper appeared to have slackened. Perhaps the maw that was MeToo needed to be fed. Perhaps the incentives for breaking a big new MeToo story in an arena where there had not been one were too tempting. 

"We've been wondering, in the museum community, when this would land on this industry," said Jeff Martin, host of the Museum Confidential episode featuring Pogrebin and Small. Small responded that they had “received an anonymous tip telling me to look into the Philadelphia Museum of Art." The tip would have been around September 2019, more than a year and a half after Helmer left PMA. Nevertheless, on Nov. 13, Small sent Helmer a 700-word email, with the subject line, URGENT PRESS REQUEST, and giving Helmer 48-hours to respond to 23 detailed questions.

Journalists do not, as a rule, send cold interview requests this demanding, not if they are hoping for a reply. That Small sent it concurrently to several of Helmer's former colleagues at PMA, as well as to the boards of PMA and Erie, seemed to Helmer very much like a trap.

"I was really quite shocked," he said.

Fallout Becomes Opportunity

Whether Small intended to throw into turmoil the staff of both museums, that is what happened. On Nov. 14, Marla Shoemaker, then PMA senior curator of education, called a department staff meeting the next day. According to someone at the meeting who took contemporaneous notes, nearly two dozen museum staff showed up. Nancy Brennan, head of Human Resources, opened the meeting by saying, "We are going to address the elephant in the room."

What elephant?  the attendee recalled thinking.

Brennan said the museum could not disclose why Helmer left PMA, but to put to rest speculation, there had never been any claim of sexual harassment during his time there. Brennan and Shoemaker went on to discuss ways to make the staff feel supported, such as a commitment to a strict "no-retaliation policy" for staff who came forward with complaints. 

This was apparently insufficient for Adam Rizzo, a museum educator who called Helmer "a sociopath" and demanded he be banned from the museum due to staff still being affected by "the situation," according to meeting notes. To at least one attendee, Rizzo's comments about Helmer seemed preloaded. Alicia Parks – the former NFL cheerleader – seconded not wanting Helmer on museum property, a request Shoemaker said she would work on with security. 

Other former colleagues were at a loss. They had never felt threatened by Helmer. And what was "the situation" Rizzo referred to?

Since at least May 2019, Rizzo had been trying to rally support to form a union, according to an article in Philadelphia Magazine. Helmer now seemed to play a role in Rizzo's union strategy. "Welcome" materials sent to prospective members and obtained by RCI called out "Patriarchy, misogyny, racism, ageism and other-isms in institutional culture," and named Helmer as an example of a "Culture of silencing and enabling."

A short-lived Twitter account with the handle @artandmuseumtransparency repeatedly posted tweets such as, "We're getting word that @TheArtNewspaper may be sitting on a major museum MeToo story?? Sitting for more than a month and now planning to publish an altered version, without getting consent from those who came forward or the article's author??" Rizzo told one meeting attendee he had "emailed the reporter" and was hoping to hear back soon, and later made Instagram posts about PMA needing a union and disparaging Helmer specifically. 

It remains unconfirmed whether Rizzo was the anonymous source who got Small interested in Helmer. Reached for comment about the Helmer affair, Rizzo told RCI, "Not interested."

Meanwhile, at the Erie Art Museum, Helmer did not reply to Small's lengthy email. He said he forwarded it to Lucia Conti, director of marketing at Erie, who agreed it was best to ignore it. While Helmer could not say if Small wanted to take him down, he considered whether the several women at PMA he'd been romantically involved with, at times concurrently, might have wanted to. 

According to Helmer, his most serious relationship had been with Rachel Nicholson, who had lived with him in Philadelphia during part of their time at PMA and moved with him to Erie. Helmer said the relationship did not work out in part because Nicholson learned he had been unfaithful. The former couple had not been in contact for more than a year when he received a text from Nicholson in December 2019, saying she was looking forward to an article about him in the New York Times. 

Within a week, Helmer was contacted by Pogrebin, asking to interview him. With Conti in his office, Helmer spoke with the reporter, who, according to notes Conti took at the time, seemed “audibly disappointed” not to be speaking to Helmer alone. Pogrebin asked Helmer about dating PMA staff and stated that doing so was “problematic.” Helmer countered that he had "followed PMA policy." Pogrebin said several staff members said he "displayed harassing behavior." Helmer said that he was unaware of such claims and wondered why, after nearly two years away from PMA, the Times was interested in him now. According to Conti's notes, the Times reporter said it was because "so many women were damaged by your behavior and it involves a large institution." Pogrebin did not reply to an email from RCI asking for comment.

The conversation lasted less than 15 minutes. When Pogrebin said she would be back in contact with Helmer, Conti assured her that in any future discussions, "the answers to the questions you have asked us today will be the same."

Celebrating Helmer’s Downfall

There were no future calls. On Jan. 10, the Times ran its first story on Helmer. That same day, a woman Helmer had never met started a petition on Change.org titled, "Stop The Abuse And Predation: Fire Joshua Helmer, Erie Art Museum." That evening, Nicholson posted an Instagram photo of herself having celebratory drinks with two of the other women in the Times piece who had also dated Helmer, with a caption that read in part, "Overwhelmed by the support and grace that I have received today and throughout this process." The responses to the photo were full of admiration and heart emojis.

They were not feeling the love at PMA. On Jan. 14, the education department called another meeting. According to notes taken by an attendee, CEO Timothy Rub said he had received two complaints about Helmer’s behavior while he worked at PMA, the details of which he said he could not disclose. “Did we act?” he asked rhetorically. “Yes, on both accounts.” Although neither complaint resulted in discipline, Shoemaker, the curator of education, said the alleged behavior had happened on her watch and apologized for any harm Helmer had done. Rizzo stated he had previously seen "women and interns crying at their desks" and, since the Times article appeared, was "hearing more now online."

Back in Erie, Helmer braced for further condemnation. In addition to several publications picking up the Times reporting and writing their own versions of the story, Pogrebin and Small published a fifth piece on March 10 rehashing the allegations against Helmer, after which the story either ran out of steam or was replaced by wall-to-wall coverage of the pandemic.

Several former colleagues urged Helmer to counter the accusations, perhaps even file a lawsuit. He declined. He did not reach out to any of his accusers, and never heard from any of them again. "In terms of fighting back. I always felt like, if I hurt you enough that this is what you felt was right, then the pound of flesh is yours," he would later tell RCI.

Had the pound of flesh been what Helmer's accusers wanted? Had they been swept up in the enthusiasm of MeToo? Six years on, RCI made contact with all but one of the women named in the article. Parks was asked if she might reveal what Helmer said that had made her "that uncomfortable." Nicholson was asked about the support she had received. The woman who'd created the Change.org petition – which gathered 3,000 signatures in three days and, the day Helmer resigned from Erie, ran an update titled, "We did it! Helmer has been fired" – was asked why she had felt it important to start the petition. None of the women responded.

Maybe they want to put whatever happened with Helmer behind them. Several had moved on to different museums. At least one had gotten married and become a mother. Perhaps they did not want to revisit a painful chapter in their lives that, by speaking with the Times, had been at least partially relieved. 

RCI also emailed Small, asking why they had gone so hard in their initial email to Helmer. They did not respond. A Times spokeswoman did, saying, "We publish what is newsworthy and what we are able to confirm."

Art World Reckoning

Looking back to 2020, Jeff Martin, the Museum Confidential podcast host and director of communications for the Philbrook Museum in Tulsa, Oklahoma, saw a giant hunger for change, a reckoning on both sex and race, in a museum industry run mostly by white men.  

"You could see that many institutions were pushing for more representation," he told RCI. "If you're looking to kind of leverage a moment, sometimes you get caught up in it... If you see something that can lift you six inches higher to the top of the fence you're trying to climb, you're probably going to step on that thing."

As for Helmer specifically, Martin had not heard of him before the Times pieces. He did know more about PMA's recent controversy, having been at a conference of museum professionals in Philadelphia on Nov. 4, 2025, when the firing of PMA CEO Sasha Suda was announced.

"Everybody's phone starts going off like some weird scene from a movie," Martin said, a firing at first attributed to disappointment with Suda's recent changing of the museum's nickname from PhAM to PhArt – a rebranding people understandably had a field day with – and later to accusations that Suda had given herself unauthorized raises. As the story moved into the courts and was dutifully reported, including in the Times, the character that is Joshua Helmer was called back into action.

"What they're talking about is not me. But then in the public, it is me," said Helmer. "They've made up Josh Helmer, actually, because there's no dimensionality to it at all."

A ‘Zipper Problem’

It was mid-December 2025. Helmer had just turned 37. Tall and lanky, with cropped dark hair, he had the politician’s habit of repeating your name in conversation. In the living room of the home he shares with his partner, a teacher, and her four school-age children, he explained he did not currently have a job, nor had he looked for one in the museum world.

"Honestly, I was done. I knew I was done. 'Radioactive' is the term," he said. He had read the Jon Ronson book, "So You've Been Publicly Shamed," and sensed, from Ronson's reporting and from what Helmer could see from the many MeToo cases in the news, that neither defending himself nor apologizing would have anything but a negative effect. 

"I am struggling sometimes to find what it is I am being accused of," he said. "I definitely dated a couple of them simultaneously. Not cool. Got that. If I hurt your feelings, you got me. But it turned into this thing of sexual predator, and even when I read that [Times] article, I can't find it."

Helmer said he was fortunate to have invested well and thus did not need a job. "I'm a house husband now," he said, mentioning that he did most of the cooking for the family and grew much of their produce in a massive garden. "I also taught myself how to make wood furniture by hand."

He'd also had a lot of time to reflect. Having signed a non-disclosure agreement when he left PMA, he could not reveal the reasons for his departure, other than he'd perhaps been overambitious. One of his accusers told the Times he had told her he would one day be the head of the museum, and maybe he had said that. He had started climbing the ladder at PMA at 24 and moved fast.

He also moved fast with women, of whom there was never a shortage. The staff at American museums skews on average 60/40 female, with new interns and grant recipients coming in by the season. During Helmer's time at PMA, nearly all these new employees were in their 20s and excited to be working at one of the best museums in the country. Mentioning several times that every one of the PMA colleagues he fooled around with was "very interesting, very smart, very cool," he also seemed tickled at the suggestion that he had a zipper problem. 

"I did, I had a zipper problem," he said. "I had a lot of girlfriends. Lots of girlfriends."

Still, he did not think his sleeping around was the main driver of the campaign that took him down. “I thought it was about the union,” he said. “They were having trouble drumming up the support they needed. They needed reasons to say, ‘Our workplace isn't safe.’” The lack of a statement as to why he'd left the museum was perhaps too good a moment to pass up, for a union organizer to rally support, for an eager reporter to further make their bones. Many things can swim into opportunity.

While several of Helmer's former girlfriends told the Times positive things about him – and in person he seemed effortlessly at ease, someone who could make you feel fully seen when he put you in his high-beams – the lasting picture was of a man who only saw you when it suited him, someone who spoke to a former NFL cheerleader in a way that made her feel very uncomfortable, a woman Helmer says he has no recollection of meeting. 

When this article came out, I called the PMA and was like, ‘Who is Alicia Parks?’” he said. “I'd love to know what I said to her.”

Helmer said he was ready to take “full accountability” for what happened. “I shouldn't have done what I did... mixing business and personal, dating multiple people at the same time,” he said. Still, he would prefer that anytime his name is Googled, the first hits are not always about his alleged mistreatment of women. “I have been vanquished. I am enjoying my exile in the northwestern corner of Pennsylvania,” he said. “Leave me alone.” 

Nevertheless, Helmer said there is one piece of unfinished business. “I just want a retraction that [the Times article] was in a clearly false light in a hundred ways,” he said. “I’ll never go back to my job. I'll never go back to that life. I just want a retraction, and I'll hang it in the kitchen.”

The spotless kitchen, which, six years after his last paying gig, he repaired and unwrapped a slab of homemade spinach pasta dough.

It's like I'm a Frankenstein, but not a Frankenstein,” he said, rolling the dough with a controlled intensity. “I mean, there are so many times that I had to sit at home and be like, am I a monster?”

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 20:35

US Asian Ally Rejects Pentagon Request To Land Fighter Jets: More To Come?

Zero Hedge -

US Asian Ally Rejects Pentagon Request To Land Fighter Jets: More To Come?

Sri Lanka is a US regional ally, and America remains the small south Asian nation's largest export market, accounting for nearly $3 billion of the $11.7 billion of goods Sri Lanka exports annually.

But tensions are soaring over the Iran war, and especially in the wake of a US submarine having torpedoed the Iranian warship IRIS Dena just off Sri Lanka's southern coast earlier this month - killing dozens of sailors and forcing Sri Lankan authorities into a rescue operation that recovered bodies and pulled survivors from the water.

And now, the country's president Anura Kumara Dissanayake has revealed he previously formally rejected a request from Washington to allow two US fighter jets to land at Mattala International Airport.

USAF

According to Al Jazeera, "Speaking in parliament, Dissanayake said Colombo received separate requests on February 26 – one from Iran seeking permission for three naval vessels to make a goodwill visit, and another from the US requesting landing clearance for two fighter aircraft stationed near Djibouti to land at Mattala international airport."

This was mere days prior to the start of Operation Epic Fury, in the immediate run-up to the US and Israeli bombardment of Iran. "With two requests before us, the decision was clear," he said, emphasizing the move as part of national neutrality on the Iran issue. 

But the president also revealed the government had rejected Iranian request for naval access just days before the war erupted.

"With two requests before us, the decision was clear," he told parliament, while explaining Sri Lanka's intent to stay out of the foreign war.

The US State Department has tallied that "U.S. assistance to Sri Lanka has totaled more than $2 billion since Sri Lanka’s independence in 1948." With all of this past aid, it's possible the Trump administration will be reassessing.

According to further background from the NY Times:

Under normal circumstances, the American request would not have been unusual. Sri Lanka and the United States have had military ties for decades, and the island nation is strategically important for U.S. goals in the Indo-Pacific region.

Sri Lanka and the United States have cooperated on supply and logistics involving military equipment in the past, said Prasad Kariyawasam, a former secretary of the foreign ministry. U.S. aircraft have used Sri Lankan airports to drop off and pick up war-related equipment several times in the past, “but that’s not if a war is going on,” Mr. Kariyawasam said.

The war stands to get more unpopular internationally, especially as global energy markets get disrupted, raising the possibility that more and more US allies could start closing their aviation hubs and air bases for American military plane landings or usage, or the same with port facilities. In Europe, Spain has already done this.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 20:10

The Super Bowl Top Signal

Zero Hedge -

The Super Bowl Top Signal

Authored by Chris Macintosh via InternationalMan.com,

You’ve likely heard about peaks in markets often coinciding with magazine covers saying the opposite.

Well, this is simply a representation of zeitgeist.

Another representation of zeitgeist is advertising at the Super Bowl. For long-time readers, you may recall our selling Bitcoin way back before it nosedived. We highlighted that at the time there were crypto ads running wild at the Super Bowl. We even had Matt Damon shilling crypto. Remember that? Fun times.

Well, you know what dominated this year’s Super Bowl? AI. It was in fact the single largest concentration of AI advertising in television history. Ain’t that something.

16 tech companies bought Super Bowl ads: OpenAI, Google, Amazon, Meta, Anthropic, Genspark, Base44, Rippling, Ramp — and more.

Tech ad spending is double what it was during the 2022 “Crypto Bowl.”

And here we are again. Just with AI.

2000: The Dot-Com Bowl. 14 internet startups bought Super Bowl ads at $2.2 million per spot. Pets.com spent $1.2 million on that ridiculous but now-famous sock puppet commercial. Ten months later it joined Elvis. The stock went from $11 to zero. Eight of the 11 startups that advertised were bankrupt or sold for cents on the dollar within a year.

2022: The Crypto Bowl. FTX, Coinbase, Crypto.com, and eToro collectively spent $54 million on Super Bowl ads. Nine months later, FTX was bankrupt and Coinbase shares fell 70% within a year. By the time the next Super Bowl rolled around, crypto had zero representation.

So maybe this time is different. Maybe all these AI-related stocks — many of which are unprofitable, just like crypto and dotcoms — defy gravity and continue powering ahead. It is possible. But I would say improbable… despite the market thinking it not only possible but assured. And that is exactly why we have our hedge against a Nasdaq fall safely secured.

When Revolutionary Tech Needs a Marketing Budget

Alphabet is looking to issue a 100-year bond.

The last time this happened was Motorola in 1997 — the last year Motorola was considered a big deal.

At the start of 1997, Motorola was a top-25 market cap and top-25 revenue corporation in America. Never again! The Motorola corporate brand in 1997 was ranked #1 in the US, ahead of Microsoft. In 1998, Nokia overtook Motorola in mobile phones, and after the iPhone it fell out of the consumer eye entirely. Today Motorola is the 232nd-largest market cap with only $11 billion in sales.

Remember when Austria issued a 100-year sovereign bond? That pretty much bottom-ticked the bond market. But wait… there’s more.

Big Tech is dropping $700 billion on AI this year. Their cash flow? Circling the drain.

Amazon’s going into debt. Google’s free cash flow is cratering 90%. And they’re paying influencers $600K each to convince you AI is worth using. Nothing screams “revolutionary technology” quite like needing half a million per creator to sell it.

Then there’s the earnings carnage…

All four giants reported earnings at once, and Wall Street had a meltdown:

  • Amazon: $200 billion capex (largest in history). Stock: -9%. Free cash flow: -71%.

  • Google: $185 billion spend (vs. $120 billion expected). Stock: -5%. Free cash flow: headed to $8 billion from $73 billion.

  • Meta: $135 billion (double last year).

  • Microsoft: -17% this year, worst in the group.

Combined 2026 spend is projected to hit $700 billion. Morgan Stanley projects Amazon will burn $17 billion in negative free cash flow. BofA says maybe $28 billion. Amazon quietly filed with the SEC about needing to raise debt to keep building. Google already did a $25 billion bond sale. Their long-term debt quadrupled last year. They’re spending everything they have, borrowing more, then spending that too.

Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta are paying influencers $400K–$600K each to promote AI on Instagram and YouTube. AI platforms spent $1 billion on digital ads in 2025 — up 126%. Google and Microsoft’s AI ad spending: +495% in January alone. Anthropic’s running Super Bowl ads. OpenAI’s flying creators to private events.

When was the last time truly revolutionary tech needed a billion-dollar ad campaign?

Did the iPhone need influencer deals? Did Google Search need Super Bowl ads in 1998? Did email need this? No. People just used them.

You know what does need massive paid promotions? Pharma drugs. Crypto exchanges. Online gambling. MLM schemes. Products where adoption is hype, not utility. And now, apparently, AI.

“This will eliminate your job. Also please use it. Here’s $600K to tell your followers it’s cool.”

They need humans to sell a product designed to replace humans. They need creators to promote tech that makes creators obsolete. They need influencers to build trust in a system that eliminates influencer marketing.

Here’s a question: if $700 billion per year can’t produce a product that sells itself, when exactly does this make money?

$700 billion in spending, cash flow collapsing, stocks tanking, SEC filings about raising capital — and the best growth strategy is paying TikTokers to demo features.

Either AI is about to deliver the greatest economic transformation in human history (and they need influencers to convince you this)… or we’re watching the most expensive corporate Hail Mary ever thrown.

Look, I’ve no doubt that AI has its uses. We use it for research purposes amongst other things, and I think most people are now using it. That isn’t the point. There exists a mismatch between what we’re being told and what is actually happening. There is also a massive mismatch when it comes to the valuations ascribed to the related companies and their actual profitability.

*  *  *

The point is simple: when hype outruns reality, investors need to step back and look at the bigger forces driving markets.  We put together a free PDF report that does exactly that, breaking down the economic, political, and cultural shifts unfolding now, the risks they create for your money and freedom, and how thoughtful investors can stay one step ahead. You can get your free copy here.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 19:45

Murphy: "If The Dollar Starts Sinking, It's Gonna Be Fast"

Zero Hedge -

Murphy: "If The Dollar Starts Sinking, It's Gonna Be Fast"

Last night’s debate on “Deficits, War, and Markets”  brought together Bob Murphy of the Mises Institute and Bard College professor Randall Wray for a clash between Austrian and MMT worldviews, moderated by the “Macro Tourist” Kevin Muir. 

Exploding U.S. deficits, the Fed’s policy path, the geopolitical shock of the Iran war, what it means for stocks, a potential bond market snap to calls for another financial crisis… we covered a lot of ground and here were some highlights for those short on time:

Where are the bond vigilantes?

A bond trader himself, Muir asked Murphy what it would take to see a crisis-level spike in U.S. Treasury yields. Murphy’s core point is that the conditions for a bond market revolt have already been in place for years—and yet the revolt hasn’t come.

“If you had 15 years ago told me this is what the fiscal position is going to be [$39 trillion in debt]… I would say… there’d be this massive [yield] premium,” he said. “I am surprised at how much leeway investors are giving the US federal government.” But the fact that we’ve made it this far without emerging market-esque bond yields should not comfort USD holders.

Global demand for Treasuries may be eroding at the margin, and the dollar-based world order may unravel quicker than it was established. “There’s lots of countries… saying we need to reduce our exposure to the US dollar… they’re just trying to figure out how.,” Murphy said, particularly in reference to Russia where previous American administrations went trigger happy with sanctions and freezing of foreign dollar reserves. Actions that greatly enhance the risk premium of holding dollar-denominated assets if you’re a foreign government or even a foreign national whose country may one day be on the naughty list.

“If the dollar starts sinking, it’s gonna be fast”

Even the Keynesian thinks a crash is coming…

Self-identifying as a Keynesian economist, Wray nonetheless thinks we can’t maneuver our way out of the coming crash.

Wray’s warning: the system never actually fixed the conditions that led to the last crisis — it consolidated and amplified them. “We wouldn’t have these huge institutions that are… engaged in crazy finance and setting us up for another tremendous financial crash,” he said, if instead after 2008, we’d employed something more akin to Teddy Roosevelt and disintegrated rather than bailed out the big banks. 

“The banks all over the country weren't doing any of the stuff,” Wray argued. “The biggest banks were doing that and got us into trouble.”

“We’re going to have [another crash]… it could be five years… but it’s coming. There’s no doubt at all.” 

Watch the full discussion below or listen on Spotify:

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 19:20

Qatar Dethroned As 'LNG King' As U.S. Seizes Throne, Reshaping Future Of Gas

Zero Hedge -

Qatar Dethroned As 'LNG King' As U.S. Seizes Throne, Reshaping Future Of Gas

Submitted by Criterion Research President, James Bevan

The geopolitical calculus underpinning global LNG supply through the early 2030s has shifted materially. Iranian drone strikes on Qatari LNG trains, delays to key expansion projects, and the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz have created a compounding threat to Qatar's LNG position that goes well beyond a construction delay. What had been framed as a two-horse race for global LNG market share now looks considerably more one-sided. The beneficiary is clear: U.S. Gulf Coast LNG. 

At Criterion Research, our outlook is for US LNG exports to nearly double by 2030, with further upside in the coming decade.

Qatar's Gap Is Large and Getting Larger

While Qatar’s loss of 12.8 MTPA for 3 to 5 years due to Iranian strikes is a serious blow to Qatar’s 77 MTPA export capacity, it is not a global catastrophe on its own. What is worrying is that Iran has demonstrated the potential for further strikes, which means that even restored capacity cannot be treated as a stable floor. Even if onshore facilities are repaired and the Strait is nominally reopened, LNG tanker operators and their insurers are unlikely to resume normal transits until they have, over time, earned confidence that vessels are not exposed to strikes or mines. That confidence cannot be declared by a government. It has to be proven through sustained safety in a conflict environment with no clear resolution, a process that could take months or years, regardless of the physical state of Qatar's terminals. Molecules that cannot move to market are effectively stranded, and the Strait of Hormuz shipping constraint is the piece that is hardest to resolve through engineering or diplomacy alone.

Beyond current Qatari volumes being impacted, Qatar's three-phase North Field expansion program, encompassing NFE, NFS, and North Field West, was designed to lift total liquefaction capacity from 77 MTPA to 142 MTPA by 2030. Global LNG demand was counting on these volumes. All three phases now face indefinite delays, with no official revised timeline and no near-term path to resuming offshore construction. NFE’s first train had already slipped to a 3Q26 start before the suspension, and rumors say it was pushed to 2027 before strikes began. 

Taken together, disruption to the existing base and delay of the full expansion program represent a potential swing of well over 100 MTPA relative to what the market had been counting on through the early 2030s. No other supply source can replace that on a compressed timeline. 

The U.S. Fills the Void

The U.S. project queue was already moving aggressively before Qatar's situation deteriorated. According to our data at Criterion Research, Golden Pass LNG is in active commissioning, CP2 Phase 1, Port Arthur, and Rio Grande LNG are all on track for first production in 2027, following, and CP2 Phase 2 reached FID. Post-FID US projects alone are expected to reach 39 Bcf/d by 2033. While the US cannot make up for the lost Qatari volumes before 2030, there is a strong pipeline of pre-FID projects for early 2030 and beyond that may now be pushed over the edge by new customer demand replacing Qatari volumes.

The Demand Caveat

The bull case is real but not unconditional. Whether demand materializes at the volumes required to absorb the full U.S. buildout depends heavily on price, and the infrastructure required to convert price-sensitive demand into actual imports remains well behind schedule. Across South Asia and Southeast Asia, the buildout of regasification terminals and downstream gas distribution that was supposed to undergird the bullish demand case for the 2030s has been repeatedly delayed by a combination of high prices, fiscal constraints, and the improving economics of competing renewable alternatives. The regas infrastructure that is not built in the late 2020s cannot absorb volumes in the early 2030s, and that pipeline of delayed or canceled projects represents a real ceiling on how quickly emerging-market demand can respond, even if prices fall to attractive levels. Paradoxically, a supply shock of this magnitude could push prices high enough to further delay that infrastructure buildout, suppressing the very demand growth that would otherwise absorb U.S. volumes. The structural demand from Europe and Northeast Asia, anchored by long-term contracts and supply security mandates, is likely to hold regardless. But the incremental emerging-market demand that was supposed to keep the market balanced through the mid-2030s now appears considerably more uncertain than the pre-conflict consensus assumed. 

The Structural Conclusion

Seldom has a supply disruption of this magnitude aligned so cleanly with a competing exporter's buildout window. The U.S. has a well-financed project pipeline, while its most capable competitor is facing key expansion delays, operational damage, and a shipping constraint that may outlast both. LNG dominance for U.S. LNG looks increasingly certain. Whether that translates into strong project economics across the board depends on which demand pools ultimately clear, and at what price.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 18:55

Milei's "Miracle" Faces First Cracks As Argentina's Unemployment Rises

Zero Hedge -

Milei's "Miracle" Faces First Cracks As Argentina's Unemployment Rises

Argentina’s much-touted turnaround under Javier Milei may be losing momentum, with fresh labor data pointing to a weakening jobs market, according to Bloomberg.

By the end of last year, unemployment had climbed to 7.5%—the highest rate for a fourth quarter since the Covid era—reflecting a deterioration in employment conditions before the government pushed through its landmark labor overhaul.

New figures show that joblessness in the formal sector increased for the first time in three quarters, while the share of workers in informal roles remained largely unchanged at roughly 43% of total employment.

Bloomberg writes that since Milei took office, Argentina’s formal private sector has shed more than 200,000 salaried positions—around 3% of its workforce.

Although the government has also eliminated thousands of public-sector jobs, the overall unemployment rate hasn’t surged as sharply as expected, partly because more people have turned to freelance or informal work to make ends meet.

In February, Milei secured a major political win when Congress approved a scaled-back version of his labor reform, designed to reduce hiring and firing costs and introduce broader flexibility into the labor market. Investors welcomed the move, but economists caution that it is unlikely to deliver immediate job growth.

With economic activity sluggish, consumer demand still weak, and labor-intensive sectors under pressure as the economy opens up, any employment recovery may take time to materialize.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 18:30

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