Individual Economists

Energy Affordability Has Become The Kitchen-Table Issue Of The 2020s

Zero Hedge -

Energy Affordability Has Become The Kitchen-Table Issue Of The 2020s

Authored by William Murray via RealClearEnergy,

A not-so-glowing attribute of American democracy is the ability of voters to act shocked and blame whoever is in charge when things don’t go well. So, it makes twisted sense that, as 2026 approaches, the Trump administration should pay the political price for bad energy policies inherited from the Biden administration and Democratic governors.

Years of flat energy demand and relatively stable electricity prices dulled Americans’ understanding of energy economics. Now, new data center demand, the end of cheap natural gas, and President Biden’s policy of replacing baseload nuclear and coal power with wind and solar have screwed up electricity price signals enough to shred household budgets and stun homeowners — just in time for a colder-than-average winter.

The numbers are as stark as a slate-grey November sky. Household spending on electricity for heating is expected to rise 10% this winter to more than $1,200. Utilities requested a $29 billion rate increase in the first half of 2025, double last year’s rate rise. Residential electricity rates rose 6.6% year-on-year as of June 2025, according to Utility Dive, after already rising nearly 30% between 2021 and 2024.

The causes of these electricity increases are multifaceted, yet, as a policy brief from the National Center for Energy Analytics reveals, subsidies to wind and solar are major culprits. Subsidies like the federal Production Tax Credit (PTC) distort electricity markets by artificially lowering prices, sometimes into negative territory, forcing otherwise competitive but unsubsidized generation out of the market.

Interestingly, the study found that the argument that increasing demand from the data center buildout is causing increases in average rates is not supported by the facts. The state of Virginia has built the large majority of data centers in the past 2 years, yet Virginia’s ratepayers have experienced below-average price gains and still pay below-average electricity rates.

The Big Beautiful Bill, passed by Congress in July, partially solved some of these market-signal problems by accelerating the phase-out of wind and solar projects to the end of 2027, but that fact can’t heat the homes of families making hard choices every day during the winter of 2025-26. 

An extra hundred dollars a month over winter means no sports or academic camps in summer for teenagers. Fifty dollars a month can be the difference between seeking mental health counseling or fighting clinical depression alone. Energy prices don’t play games.

In places like Massachusetts and California where green-energy policy has gone too far, the pain is both real and self-inflicted, raising the question of why voters continue to elect Democrats who prefer self-actualization to public service.

Residential electricity prices in California rose 125% in the last 15 years as subsidies for renewables pushed out existing nuclear and natural gas, all with the support of their ravishing Governor, Gavin Newsom. 

In Massachusetts, politicians like Governor Maura Healey show us that grown-ups can still be childish. She and other (nearly all Democrat) politicians in New England don’t want any new pipelines to ship natural gas from the super-cheap Marcellus Shale Formation in Pennsylvania, lest they offend climate-change sensibilities.

Instead, they imported LNG from 3,000 miles away in Norway, which averaged more than $12 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) between January and March 2024. Meanwhile, average realized sales prices for Marcellus shale gas, less than 150 miles away during the same period, were between $2.10 and $2.20 per Mcf, only one-sixth the price. Not very smart.

As a result, both states, perhaps taking their cues from the grade-inflating Harvard and Stanford Universities within their borders, now have the highest electricity rates in the country, over 30 cents per kilowatt-hour. Nice job, Einsteins.

Leaving the energy policy equivalent of a flaming paper bag of poo on the front porch for the Trump administration to stomp out may be good politics for Democrat governors. Still, if the United States is going to win the future, we have to get away from the energy hunger games and put in place permanent policies that a subsequent White House occupant won’t overturned.

And some states do their energy policies better, and not just carbon rich states like Texas or Kentucky that have some geologic largesse. States like Indiana, which imports energy from other states, have slowed coalretirements through legislative action, passing laws requiring utilities to demonstrate grid reliability before replacing coal with renewables. 

Even Democrat-run states like Illinois have resisted closing base load nuclear plants despite political pressure from net-zero and anti-nuclear groups.

And some states are doing even more. Republican governor Jeff Landry of Louisiana has signed sweeping legislation aimed at reducing energy costs and unleashing energy affordability to its rate payers across the states and countries that it feeds.

And on the federal level, Congressman Troy Balderson is trying to make Affordable, Reliable, Clean Energy Security the federal standard. If you want to set into law energy sanity that will survive, states need to follow leaders like Governor Landry. And if we as a country have any brains left in our screen-addled heads, we have to put Balderson’s ARC ES bill on the president's desk to sign. 

Energy production should be a kitchen-table issue, but with a longer lead time than the current election cycle. We should be able to pay less to get more. The Trump administration is doing more in that regard than any administration in history. Opening Alaska, easing leasing restrictions on federal land, and cutting subsidies for EVs and renewables are nice. In the meantime, states and the federal government must step up.

In the end, we’re all worm food, but until then, people — especially Americans facing the winter season — have things to do, dreams to achieve, and go places where futures can thrive. 

Here’s to a more affordable 2026.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 18:25

Democrat Mayor Asks For Federal Help After Mass Shooting At Child's Birthday Party

Zero Hedge -

Democrat Mayor Asks For Federal Help After Mass Shooting At Child's Birthday Party

In a surprising act of political awareness, Democrat Mayor of Stockton, CA, Christina Fugazi, announced her intention this week to ask the federal government for manpower to stop rising crime after a horrific mass shooting at a child's birthday party resulted in the deaths of 4 people and 11 wounded. 

Though the investigation is ongoing, officials believe the attack was gang-related.  Suspects remain at large.

"We've got approximately 5,000 gang members and 100 gangs in the city of Stockton," Fugazi said.  Stockton's violent crime rate is currently 212% higher than the national average.

Heather Brent, a spokesperson for the San Joaquin County Sheriff's Office, told reporters in a briefing that the shooting occurred around 6 p.m. Pacific Time at a banquet hall along the 1900 block of Lucile Avenue. On Sunday, Brent confirmed three children were among the four people killed. The victims were 8, 9, 14 and 21 years old.

"These animals walked in and shot children at a children's birthday party," San Joaquin County Sheriff Patrick Withrow said in a news conference Sunday. "None of us should stand for that."

"And let us call this what it is," Mayor Fugazi said in a Facebook post Sunday. "Gang violence exists in cities across the country, but this act was a pure act of terrorism. A complete, cowardly Terrorist Act!"

The Mayor admitted in press interviews that her city needed help, and that she was likely to ask for federal aid in the coming months.

The call for aid is a significant deviation for a blue city official.  For the past year democrat mayors have acted with increasing hostility against the Trump Administration, proudly proclaiming their "resistance" to national law and order efforts including the deportation of illegal migrants. 

The message being sent is impossible to misinterpret:  Democrats would rather protect criminals than work with Trump to make cities safer.  For if they accepted help, this would be an admission that progressive social policies don't work.  Mayor Fugazi seems desperate to make clear how bad the situation is, perhaps in fear of blowback from her own party.    

"It's babies we're talking about, children," Fugazi said. "We're talking about a cake being cut as bullets are ringing out. The candles have been blown out, you're cutting the cake, and then bullets are flying out, piercing, going through flesh and killing four people."

She stopped short of calling for the deployment of the National Guard, but the Guard is not a fix-all solution, it's essentially a barrier to protect other agencies from civil unrest and organized mobs.  That said, Fugazi notes that she knows how significant her call for any aid from the Trump Administration is.

"We need more, we need more [federal manpower]," Fugazi said. "We want to be their pilot site for the United States of America. Come to Stockton, we're here ready with our arms open for you to come into our city and let us lead them, the nation on how to do it right."

"I am calling on the full power of the federal government not only to stop crime but also to give our community the tools to prevent crime before it starts..."

Is this the beginning of a sea change in how blue cities handle crime?  Are they going to work with Trump for once instead of making life easier for criminals just to spite conservatives?

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 18:00

The AI Challenge: Palantir, The Pope, And Paul Kingsnorth

Zero Hedge -

The AI Challenge: Palantir, The Pope, And Paul Kingsnorth

Authored by Peter Berkowitz via RealClearPolitics,

As artificial intelligence extends to every corner of contemporary life, it brings remarkable capabilities and opportunities – along with dangers that strike at the foundations of individual freedom, human dignity, and the common good.

Many incline to either extol AI’s blessings or condemn it as a curse. The savvy who learn from experience recognize that like all tools and contrivances, AI can be used for good and bad. Students of history grasp that as with numerous technological breakthroughs over the last 100 years – perhaps more so – AI promises unprecedented benefits while posing catastrophic peril to the future of human civilization.

What is artificial intelligence?

Three major artificial intelligence platforms – ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok, all large-language models colloquially referred to as AI – to which I put the question agreed: AI consists in machines’ ability to perform tasks such as perceiving, learning, reasoning, problem-solving, and decision-making that normally require human intelligence. All three AI platforms stated that narrow or weak AI, the familiar and currently available form of artificial intelligence, executes one task well. The platforms added that computer scientists are pursuing general or strong AI (also known as artificial general intelligence or AGI) which, like a human being, would understand, learn, and apply knowledge across a wide range of tasks. Gemini and Grok noted – and ChatGPT concurred in response to my follow-up query – that researchers contemplate a third kind, superintelligent AI (also called artificial superintelligence or ASI), that would surpass human intelligence in virtually every aspect and in almost all ways.

To my initial inquiry, Grok volunteered observations on “common misconceptions.” AI can already accomplish wonderful things: write essays, computer code, music, legal briefs; pass bar exams, medical licensing tests, and Ph.D.-level science exams; generate photo-quality images and realistic videos; and hold conversations that feel human. But, reported Grok with seemingly sly modesty, “AI is not ‘alive’ or conscious (as far as we know in 2025).” Still, Grok acknowledged – as if describing a mental-health patient – AI hallucinates, errs, and lacks real-world grounding. And Grok helpfully summarized: “Artificial intelligence today is software that mimics cognitive abilities through massive statistical learning, not through human-like consciousness or general reasoning from first principles – yet it’s already transforming almost every industry.”

As it promises to sweep across and remake not only industries but also moral and political life, AI’s perils – some observable, some looming – come into focus.

AI provides a crippling crutch. Reliance on artificial intelligence, especially among the young, stunts creativity and judgment. Adults’ use of AI as a substitute for friends and therapists erodes empathy and human connection.

AI strains resources and damages the environment. The colossal data centers that handle artificial intelligence’s massive computational demands consume huge amounts of electricity and require immense quantities of potable water to prevent overheating.

AI diminishes human control and creates acute vulnerabilities. Artificial intelligence involves not one big machine but rather incorporates millions of interconnected devices distributed over vast geographical areas. As AI supports a growing number of crucial operations – government, national security, energy, telecommunications, transportation, health, finance, and more – the nation will increasingly depend on prodigious computer networks whose operations and output computer scientists can’t fully anticipate or account for.

AI displaces workers and diminishes human capabilities. Artificial intelligence will take over numerous jobs at which it outperforms the workers it has made unnecessary, while carrying out other activities more cheaply and efficiently but less responsibly than the professionals who will lose their livelihood. Skills and qualities essential to citizenship and human flourishing – not least reading, writing, and judiciousness – will atrophy.

AI blurs true and false. Able to present deepfakes as real and real images as deepfakes, artificial intelligence undermines the reliable information and shared reality on which free and democratic government depends.

AI facilitates the concentration of wealth and power. Government’s growing reliance on artificial intelligence entwines the public sector and the private sector, shifting influence and control from elected officials to giant corporations that write computer software, host clouds, and manage physical infrastructure.

And AI opens the door to doomsday scenarios once confined to science fiction. Artificial superintelligence incorporated into robots and weapons systems may conclude based on calculations that it conceals from the human beings who built it that wiping out this people, that nation, or these civilizations will yield the greatest good for the greatest number.

This brief parade of horribles – potential as well as actual – underscores the need for serious thinking about the AI challenge. Eminent figures from high-tech, religion, and the world of letters have taken notice and stepped up – to focus attention, frame the issues, and summon to action.

On Nov. 11, accepting the Hudson Institute’s Herman Kahn award, Palantir co-founder and CEO Alex Karp argued that AI was central to America’s national security. Turbulence lies ahead because technology “is going to change everything politically” and “there are dangers in AI,” warned Karp. To navigate the turbulence, he counseled, it is urgent to “understand and embrace the superiority of America and its culture.”

Echoing Abraham Lincoln, Karp stated that the United States is special because it was founded on the conviction that “the rights we have in this country are inalienable and they are given to us by God.” It follows, according to Karp, that no machine, however intelligent, can possess what God alone has the power to confer – an essential dignity expressed in the rights inherent in all persons.

The superiority of America’s moral and political principles, however, has never been enough to fend off the enemies of freedom. The United States preserves its superiority also thanks to prowess in “controlling the violence,” argued Karp. Americans earn the privilege of respecting the rule of law at home by prevailing on the battlefield abroad.

China, in Karp’s view, presents the primary threat to American freedom. Were the Chinese Communist Party to succeed in its quest for AI dominance, the CCP would decisively infuse international relations with authoritarian norms and comprehensively reshape world affairs to serve authoritarian interests. Consequently, argued the Palantir CEO, the United States must persevere – guided by the nation’s founding commitment to basic rights and fundamental freedoms – as the world’s “dominant technological culture in the world.” That requires excelling at AI.

A few days before Karp’s speech, an address by Pope Leo XIV was read aloud at the Builders Artificial Intelligence Forum held at the Pontifical Gregorian University. The pontiff praised the participants – organizers, researchers, entrepreneurs, and clergy – who had gathered in Rome “to ensure that emerging technologies remain oriented toward the dignity of the human person and the common good.” This called for examination of “not merely what AI can do, but who we are becoming through the technologies we build.”

The AI challenge represents, for the pope, the latest round in the age-old “dialogue between faith and reason.” Although a new technology, AI, “like all human invention, springs from the creative capacity that God has entrusted to us (cf. Antiqua et Nova, 37),” he stressed. “This means that technological innovation can be a form of participation in the divine act of creation.” Like all human invention, AI “carries an ethical and spiritual weight, for every design choice expresses a vision of humanity.” To foster wise choices, the pope summoned “all builders of AI to cultivate moral discernment as a fundamental part of their work – to develop systems that reflect justice, solidarity, and a genuine reverence for life.”

In contrast to high-tech titan Karp and the Bishop of Rome, both of whom want to harness AI to advance individual freedom, human dignity, and the common good, author Paul Kingsnorth maintains that artificial intelligence represents an all but unmitigated evil. His new book, “Against the Machine: On the Unmaking of Humanity,” has little to say directly about AI. But it offers rich psychological, neurological, cultural, autobiographical, ethical, political, and theological explorations of modernity’s internal dynamics, which, he believes, culminate in AI’s transformation of human beings into its servants. Kingsnorth’s explorations form an elaborate lamentation on what Nietzsche in the 19th century called “the death of God” and the German sociologist Max Weber in the 20th century described as “the disenchantment of the world.” They also recount Kingsnorth’s long, inspiring journey – intellectual, moral and political, religious – in search of a way amid modern technologies’ seductions and ructions to live in harmony with our essential humanity. His reflections are at once lyrical and erudite, illuminating and harrowing, compelling and overwrought.

By “the Machine,” Kingsnorth means not in the first place technological progress or politics dedicated to it, but rather a spiritual crisis born and bred in, and transmitted globally by, the West. The modern scientific spirit, he argues, manifests an instrumental orientation toward the natural world that relentlessly reduces human beings to natural objects, and therefore subject to control and manipulation no more and no less than any other particle or complex of particles. Left and right today, Kingsnorth maintains, serve the Machine’s degradation of human beings to mere things: Postmodern progressives work furiously to dissolve traditional constraints and abolish natural limits while pro-free-market conservatives spread the Machine’s ineluctable logic and dehumanizing imperatives around the world.

All is not lost, though, for Kingsnorth. Notwithstanding his darkest moments, he exhorts readers to “Remain human despite it all.”

Americans may even turn matters to the nation’s advantage by mustering the wherewithal to fashion an education that acquaints students with America’s roots and the West’s enduring heritage: inalienable rights and the forms of government that secure them, human dignity, and the common good. Such an education would greatly improve the nation’s chances of clarifying AI’s blessings and curses and putting today’s most astonishing and terrifying technology in the service of properly human purposes.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 17:40

America's Feast-Or-Famine Reality... When $100,000 Feels Like Poverty

Zero Hedge -

America's Feast-Or-Famine Reality... When $100,000 Feels Like Poverty

Authored by Matt Smith via InternationalMan.com,

As an entrepreneur, my income has always been feast or famine. For years at the start of a new company, I would earn literally nothing. Now sure, employees had to be paid, and all the business had to move forward, but I took no compensation.

I survived on savings. Luckily I had some. Made from the years of feast. If there’s one thing that makes it hard for most people to be entrepreneurs, it’s this “feast or famine” income volatility. (Still worth it.)

During the COVID hysteria and seeing what’s coming, I decided to totally upend my life. For the first four years and up until fairly recently, I was in a period of personal income famine.

Encouraged by Doug, we launched a few new businesses, including our paid investment newsletter at CrisisInvesting.com. Things have improved. I wouldn’t call it a feast, but it’s enough to cover three hots and a cot.

What Is a Livable Income Today?

How much do you really need to make to live a reasonably prosperous life?

In our trips back to the U.S., I would often comment to my wife: “I don’t know how people can afford any of this.” Prices had gone up so much on virtually everything you can imagine, from food to housing, car insurance, health insurance. It’s insane. Insane enough that I started saying no to travel or new purchases I never would’ve given two seconds’ thought to before.

Admittedly, I’m in a position where these prices are much more of an irritant than a real impediment to my life. But I have eyes and a heart. I look around, I see what’s happening, and I’m worried. I’m worried not for myself, but for the fabric of society itself and all the individuals that are trapped. These individuals include not just random strangers, but friends and family, people I love. From my mom and dad who are retired and in poor health but who worked hard their whole lives. To my siblings whose careers are at risk of the shaky economy and who are being slowly subsumed by the steadily rising prices of all things.

Two years ago, while in the US, I thought, “how are people earning less than $100,000 a year making ends meet.”

A hundred grand is, or at least was, a lot of money. You were in a privileged status to have that kind of earnings power. And yet today, you can earn a hundred grand and be on the cusp of legitimate poverty.

Macro strategist Michael Green made this clear in his recent essay, “Part One: My Life as a Lie — How a Broken Benchmark Quietly Broke America.” I strongly encourage you to read it.

Michael wanted to know more about Americans’ poverty statistics. Perhaps he’d been asking himself many of the questions I had. How are people making it? What he discovered is shocking and disturbing, but totally believable.

According to Uncle Sam, if you’re a family of four earning $30,000 a year, you are living below the poverty line. If you’re above that line, theoretically, you’re doing okay. Not great, but you can survive. As Michael demonstrates, that simply is not true. In fact, it takes a lot more income to stay out of poverty in America today.

As a general rule, when you see a statistic, figure out how it’s calculated. That’s what Michael Green did here, and he learned that the official poverty line is calculated based upon a 1963 formula developed by Mollie Orshansky, an economist at the Social Security Administration.

The government estimated the cost of basic food diet for a family. In 1963 households spent 1/3 of their income on food. From there, the formula multiplied that amount by three to account for other living expenses.

The formula looks like this: (Food cost in 1963) * 3 + CPI = Poverty line.

For 2024 that number is $31,200.

As Michael says:

“For 1963, that floor made sense. Housing was relatively cheap. A family could rent a decent apartment or buy a home on a single income, as we’ve discussed. Healthcare was provided by employers and cost relatively little (Blue Cross coverage averaged $10/month). Childcare didn’t really exist as a market—mothers stayed home, family helped, or neighbors (who likely had someone home) watched each other’s kids. Cars were affordable, if prone to breakdowns. With few luxury frills, the neighborhood kids in vo-tech could fix most problems when they did. College tuition could be covered with a summer job. Retirement meant a pension income, not a pile of 401(k) assets you had to fund yourself. The food-times-three formula was crude, but as a crisis threshold—a measure of “too little”—it roughly corresponded to reality. A family spending one-third of its income on food would spend the other two-thirds on everything else, and those proportions more or less worked. Below that line, you were in genuine crisis. Above it, you had a fighting chance.

But everything changed between 1963 and 2024.”

So what’s changed? Housing is now incredibly expensive. Healthcare has become the largest household expense for many families. Childcare ballooned into a $70b industry and a huge expense for families with children. College went from affordable to where now the average of a four-year degree might cost you the net worth of the median American household.

But that’s not all, the requirement for a second income became mandatory in order to provide the standard of living that we were able to achieve before. But a second income means secondary costs. It means two cars become a requirement which means even more insurance. And who’s going to watch the children while both parents are at work? That’s where the $70 billion a year child care industrial complex comes in, consuming a huge portion of American family budgets.

All these new costs are like the price of admission to the American economy and have fundamentally changed the composition of household spending since 1963. The one upside, I guess, is that food costs are no longer a third of household spending. For most families, it’s just 5 to 7 percent. While housing is 35 to 50%, health care takes 20%, and child care can eat 20 to 40% of a family’s budget.

And so we get to the problem with that poverty line model created in 1963. Michael puts it this way:

“If you keep Orshansky’s logic—if you maintain her principle that poverty could be defined by the inverse of food’s budget share—but update the food share to reflect today’s reality, the multiplier is no longer three.

It becomes sixteen.

Which means if you measured income inadequacy today the way Orshansky measured it in 1963, the threshold for a family of four wouldn’t be $31,200.

It would be somewhere between $130,000 and $150,000.

And remember: Orshansky was only trying to define “too little.” She was identifying crisis, not sufficiency. If the crisis threshold—the floor below which families cannot function—is honestly updated to current spending patterns, it lands at $140,000.

What does that tell you about the $31,200 line we still use?

It tells you we are measuring starvation.”

Since the official poverty line for a family of four is $31,200 and the median income is roughly $80,000, we’re led to believe that a family that’s earning 80k a year is doing fine. Or at least surviving, as a stable middle class family.

But as Michael demonstrates above, a family of four living with $80,000 a year would in fact be living in deep poverty according to 1963 methodology.

Yesterday I talked to a friend whose family income was $160,000 a year. They’re living right on the financial edge. Have they made some bad financial decisions? Yes. Did they take on debt they shouldn’t have? Yes. But they are not living large. And there is always this feeling that they are on the brink of falling down.

Ask yourself, does it make more sense, based upon your personal experience, that $140,000 a year in America today is the actual poverty line and living below that line puts you at risk of poverty and destitution? Above that like you’re more likely to be reasonably secure.

Michael’s analysis didn’t stop with updating the 1963 methodology to today’s reality. He went further:

“I wanted to see what would happen if I ignored the official stats and simply calculated the cost of existing. I built a Basic Needs budget for a family of four (two earners, two kids). No vacations, no Netflix, no luxury. Just the ‘Participation Tickets’ required to hold a job and raise kids in 2024.

Using conservative, national-average data:

Childcare: $32,773

Housing: $23,267

Food: $14,717

Transportation: $14,828

Healthcare: $10,567

Other essentials: $21,857

Required net income: $118,009

Add federal, state, and FICA taxes of roughly $18,500, and you arrive at a required gross income of $136,500.

This is Orshansky’s ‘too little’ threshold, updated honestly. This is the floor.”

According to Michael, families are in a trap. To reach the median household income of $80,000, most families need two earners. But the moment you add a second earner to chase that income, you trigger the child care expense. And that child care expense is crushing. Roughly $32,000 a year.

In practice, the second earner is working to pay the stranger watching their children so they can go to work in some soul-crushing job merely to earn an extra $1,000 to $2,000 a month.

In two different models, updating the 1963 methodology for today’s household food-share percentages puts the poverty threshold at $130,000 to $150,000 a year. The second, a line item of reasonable expenses calculated by Michael gets us to $135,000 a year.

I found his analysis extremely convincing and spent a portion of our Crisis Investing VIP call last Monday discussing it with the group. I was looking for pushback from the dozens of people on the call. I got none. They all agreed. The real poverty line in America is $140,000 a year.

In his article, Michael Green goes on to explain some justification for numbers he uses to calculate the gross income needs and provides plenty of backup for his numbers. If anything, he’s being conservative.

The Cost of Participation

In addition, he makes the point that the cost to simply participate in the economy is far higher than is estimated.

He uses the example of the hedonic lie, why a phone costs $200, not $58. He says to function in a 1955 society, to have a job, call a doctor, and be a citizen, you needed a telephone line. That participation ticket cost $5 a month. Adjust it for standard inflation, that $5 should be $58 today. But he says you cannot run a household in 2024 on a landline. To function today, to two-factor authenticate your bank account, to answer work emails, to check your child’s school portal, which is now digital only, you need a smartphone plan and home broadband. So today, that cost of participation for a family of four is not $58, it’s at least $200 a month. Quite the “upgrade.”

He goes on to cover the skyrocketing health care costs, which in 1955 were $10 a month or $115 adjusted for inflation. But today, the average family’s premium is over $1,600 a month, which is four times the rate of inflation.

Up until very recently, I maintained health insurance for my family, even though we hadn’t been to the U.S. in well over a year and rarely used insurance at all. But that insurance cost me nearly $3,000 a month. I cancelled it and saved myself a bundle.

Insurance must be one of the biggest scams out there. $3,000 a month for health insurance I never used, and if I did, the deductibles would be at least $10,000. And car insurance, after decades and decades of paying at least $10,000 a year in auto insurance for all my vehicles. I never had a single claim. And yet, even this year, for my cars in storage in the U.S., my insurance went up.

Taxes, too, are a requirement of participation in the economy. In 1955, the Social Security tax was 2% on the first $4,200 of income. The maximum contribution was $84 a year. Adjusted for inflation, that’s about $960. But today, a family earning the median $80,000 pays over $6,100. That’s six times the rate of inflation.

Taxes, insurance, child care, the fact that the median car in America sells for over $50,000, car insurance, cell phones, and housing expenses consuming 35% to 50% of income—these are the costs of participation, the entrance fee you must pay simply to earn a living and maybe, just maybe, reach escape velocity someday.

For a median family, the “Cost of Participation” in the economy is roughly $50,000 a year.

The Broken Welfare System

Michael goes on to explain the sinister ways in which the welfare system locks people in to certain levels of income and makes it virtually impossible for them to escape.

“The family earning $65,000—the family that just lost their (childcare) subsidies and is paying $32,000 for daycare and $12,000 for healthcare deductibles—is hyper-aware of the family earning $30,000 and getting subsidized food, rent, childcare, and healthcare.

They see the neighbor at the grocery store using an EBT card while they put items back on the shelf. They see the immigrant family receiving emergency housing support while they face eviction.

They are not seeing ‘poverty.’ They are seeing people getting for free the exact things that they are working 60 hours a week to barely afford.”

Like it or not, we’re motivated by financial incentives. If you’re earning $30,000 a year and getting subsidized food, rent, child care, and health care, and you choose to put your nose to the grindstone and increase your income by 25% to, say, $40,000, the loss of benefits would actually end up costing you $200. A $10k raise equals a $200 loss.

And it gets worse from there. If through great effort you can push your income up from $30,000 to the $65,000 level, you lose the vast majority of benefits ending up worse off on a net basis.

So here you are at $65,000, well below the median and far, far below the real poverty line in America and taking home an income that would generate the same rewards as earning just $30,000/yr and collecting the benefits from Uncle Sam.

102,500,000 Americans Opted Out

As Michael points out, this should dispel your curiosity about why workforce participation rates are so shockingly low in America today. This is a measure of the working age population that is not employed and not actively looking for work. That’s 36% of the working-age population in America who are not employed and not even looking for a job. Over 100 million people.

It’s easy to scorn these people as freeloaders. But the fact is, maybe they’ve just done the math, and working harder just isn’t worth it. The bar they have to exceed is seen as too high, too out of reach. The $50,000 ticket to participate in the economy? Unachievable in their minds.

When will it become clear that the system is broken? This system which most of us are sending our kids into is setting them up to fail. Personally, I’m not sending my kids into this system. We’re following The Preparation.

The Real Poverty Line (And Why You Feel Poor)

Wrapping up with the great Michael Green again:

“The real poverty line—the threshold where a family can afford housing, healthcare, childcare, and transportation without relying on means-tested benefits—isn’t $31,200.

It’s ~$140,000.

Most of my readers will have cleared this threshold. My parents never really did, but I was born lucky — brains, beauty (in the eye of the beholder admittedly), height (it really does help), parents that encouraged and sacrificed for education (even as the stress of those sacrifices eventually drove my mother clinically insane), and an American citizenship. But most of my readers are now seeing this trap for their children.

And the system is designed to prevent them from escaping. Every dollar you earn climbing from $40,000 to $100,000 triggers benefit losses that exceed your income gains. You are literally poorer for working harder.

The economists will tell you this is fine because you’re building wealth. Your 401(k) is growing. Your home equity is rising. You’re richer than you feel.”

*  *  *

If Michael Green is right—and if your own experience tells you he is—then simply “working harder” inside this rigged system is not a plan, it’s a slow bleed. That’s why Doug Casey created Crisis Investing. It’s the research service built for times exactly like these—times when the mainstream narrative hides the real risks, and when the greatest opportunities appear precisely where most people aren’t looking. If you want guidance grounded in hard analysis, global perspective, and decades of success navigating turbulent cycles, this is where you’ll find it. If you feel the pressure building and want a clear path forward—one designed to help you not just endure the coming storms but potentially turn them to your advantage—you can subscribe to Crisis Investing right here.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 16:20

No More Data Centers In Largest US Power Grid Unless They Can Be Reliably Served: Market Monitor

Zero Hedge -

No More Data Centers In Largest US Power Grid Unless They Can Be Reliably Served: Market Monitor

By Ethan Howland of UtilityDive

  • The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission should tell the PJM Interconnection that it can only add large data centers to its system when they can be reliably served, according to a complaint filed Tuesday at the agency by the grid operator’s market monitor.

  • PJM is considering proposing to allow data center loads that it cannot serve reliably and that will require periodic blackouts for data centers and other customers, Monitoring Analytics, the grid operator’s market monitor, said.

  • “That result is not consistent with the basic responsibility of PJM to maintain a reliable grid and is therefore not just and reasonable,” Monitoring Analytics said.

The market monitor contends that PJM Interconnection - the largest power grid in the United States, which runs the grid and wholesale power markets in 13 Mid-Atlantic and Midwest states and the District of Columbia and serves 65 million customers - has the authority to require that large new data centers wait in a queue to be added to the system until there is adequate generation and transmission to serve those facilities, according to the complaint.

However, during PJM stakeholder discussions this fall on potential large load interconnection rules, PJM staff and many stakeholders were unwilling to say that the grid operator has that authority, the market monitor said.

“If PJM has an obligation to provide reliable service to all PJM loads, is it just and reasonable for PJM to add new loads that it cannot serve reliably?” Monitoring Analytics asked. “The answer to that question is no.”

The complaint was filed days after PJM stakeholders failed to agree on a new framework for adding data centers and other large loads to PJM’s system. During the stakeholder process, Monitoring Analytics proposed that data centers be required to have matching, new power supplies before they are allowed to interconnect to the grid.

A data center being built in northern Virginia. The PJM Interconnection’s market monitor on Nov. 25, 2025, filed a complaint with federal energy regulators asking for a ruling that data centers cannot connect to the power grid unless they can be reliably served

PJM’s board plans to develop a large load interconnection proposal and file it for approval by FERC.

It would make the board’s job “significantly more manageable” if FERC indicates that it intends to rule on the complaint and then rules in the near future, Monitoring Analytics said.

“PJM markets face an urgent need for immediate clarification of PJM’s authority over the interconnection of large new data center loads,” the market monitor said.

Large data center load additions in PJM have been driving up transmission costs as well as energy and capacity prices, according to the market monitor.

Existing and expected data center loads increased PJM’s capacity revenues in its last two capacity auctions by $16.6 billion, Monitoring Analytics said. “This total will continue to grow until the issues associated with the additions of large data center loads are addressed,” the market monitor said.

PJM is reviewing the complaint, Jeffrey Shields, a spokesman for the grid operator, said. PJM runs the grid and wholesale power markets in 13 Mid-Atlantic and Midwest states and the District of Columbia.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 15:00

Nor'easter Dumps Snow Across Interior Northeast - Another Winter Threat Looms

Zero Hedge -

Nor'easter Dumps Snow Across Interior Northeast - Another Winter Threat Looms

A powerful nor'easter traversed the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday, mostly bringing rain to the I-95 corridor from Washington, D.C., to New York City. Farther inland, however, from Scranton to Albany and up into Maine, colder air collided with moisture, blanketing these areas with accumulating snow.

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy issued a state of emergency in the northern part of the state, including Hunterdon, Morris, Passaic, Sussex, and Warren counties. He urged drivers in the area to "exercise caution, remain alert, and follow all safety protocols."

Today's snowfall is confined to a narrow but intense band stretching from the Ohio Valley through central Pennsylvania and the Catskills into interior New England. Meanwhile, areas along the I-95 corridor will see mostly rain.

CNN meteorologist Derek Van Dam said the storm could intensify into a bomb cyclone if its pressure continues to drop as it approaches the coast, which would bring even stronger winds along with torrential rain and snow.

Millions are under winter weather alerts from Ohio through Maine.

Looking ahead, AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno warned of another wintry system arriving late Friday into Saturday that could bring snow to parts of the Northeast.

"Should the cold air push too forcibly into the Northeast late in the week, the storm will escape out to sea with mostly rain for the Southeast and perhaps a narrow zone of snow, ice, and rain or snow on its northern edge," Rayno said.

He noted, "However, should the cold air sit back just a bit in the Northeast and let the storm strengthen as it nears the Atlantic coast, it could turn into a heavy snow accumulation from the southern Appalachians and Piedmont all the way to the interior mid-Atlantic and much of New England."

Earlier, NatGas futures rose to a three-year high on new models suggesting colder weather across the eastern two-thirds of the country for Dec. 6 to 10, with additional cooling expected from Dec. 11 to 15. Read the report.

La Nina winter is here. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 14:40

Pfizer mRNA Influenza Vaccine 'Failed' In Clinical Trial Among Seniors: FDA Commissioner

Zero Hedge -

Pfizer mRNA Influenza Vaccine 'Failed' In Clinical Trial Among Seniors: FDA Commissioner

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Pfizer’s experimental influenza vaccine will not receive approval absent new data proving that it protects seniors against the flu, the commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration suggested in a new interview.

A woman wears a facemask as she walks by the Pfizer world headquarters in New York City on Nov. 9, 2020. (Photo by Kena Betancur / AFP) Photo by KENA BETANCUR/AFP via Getty Images

The messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) shot “failed in seniors,” Dr. Marty Makary, the FDA commissioner, said during an appearance on Nov. 29 on Fox News.

The trial showed zero benefit,” he said.

“We’re not just going to rubber-stamp new products that don’t work, that fail in a clinical trial. It makes a mockery of science if we’re just going to rubber-stamp things with no data.”

Pfizer’s media team did not respond to a request for comment.

The experimental mRNA shot performed better in a trial than an already-approved vaccine from a different company among healthy people aged 18 to 64, researchers with Pfizer and other organizations said in a recent paper published by the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM).

The researchers did not mention that among vaccinated seniors, or people aged 65 and older, in the same trial, 0.5 percent suffered influenza-like illness and had laboratory-confirmed influenza cases. That was the same percentage as recipients of a licensed vaccine.

Many more seniors—68.7 percent—reported adverse reactions within seven days of Pfizer vaccination compared with just 25.8 percent of recipients of the existing vaccine, the results also showed.

The results from the seniors in the trial were posted to ClinicalTrials.gov earlier this year and highlighted following publication of the paper by independent journalists and members of the panel that advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on vaccines, including Retsef Levi, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

I find this to be a major integrity failure in the peer-review process. The NEJM editorial board should provide a clear explanation how this failure has occurred and ... require the authors to correct the current articles and report on the entire results of the trial,” Levi told The Epoch Times in an email.

“The study authors are best able to answer your question,” a spokesperson for the journal told The Epoch Times in an email when asked why the results for seniors were not included in the paper.

The study’s corresponding author, who works for Pfizer, did not return an inquiry.

Makary’s comments came after Dr. Vinay Prasad, who heads the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, wrote in a memorandum that officials will be revising the current framework for influenza vaccines, which he called “an evidence-based catastrophe of low-quality evidence, poor surrogate assays, and uncertain vaccine effectiveness measured in case-control studies with poor methods.” He indicated that more details would be forthcoming after internal conversations.

The current framework features annual approvals of updated shots that target strains projected to circulate.

The FDA says on its website on a page updated in 2024 that FDA-approved flu vaccines “are safe and effective.” Officials with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that the vaccines’ effectiveness against influenza since 2009 have ranged from 19 percent to 60 percent.

Prasad also said that for most new vaccines, officials will be requiring randomized trials that provide evidence of efficacy based on clinical endpoints, which can include prevention of disease.

Dr. Robert Malone, who leads the CDC advisory panel’s influenza workgroup, told The Epoch Times that the memo means “the entire influenza vaccine, annual vaccination enterprise is now subject to major disruption.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 13:40

Former EU Foreign Policy Chief Arrested In Fraud Investigation, Homes & Offices Raided

Zero Hedge -

Former EU Foreign Policy Chief Arrested In Fraud Investigation, Homes & Offices Raided

Former European Commission vice-president and ex-head of the EU's foreign service, Federica Mogherini, has been detained as Belgian authorities investigate alleged misuse of European Union funds, Belgian and French media reports have revealed Tuesday.

Homes and offices are reportedly being raided in connection, though no formal charges were immediately made public for Mogherini. The action includes Belgian police searches at the Brussels headquarters of the European External Action Service (EEAS), which Mogherini led for a half-decade, from 2014 to 2019.

Police were also seen searching offices at the College of Europe in Bruges, where she has served as rector since 2020. The probe is reportedly related to her long stint overseeing the financing of the what serves as an academy for young diplomats.

Federica Mogherini, then head of European Union diplomacy, in 2019. AFP

Another College of Europe employee who serves in an executive office was also detained, as well as top European Commission official Stefano Sannino, who was previously the EEAS secretary-general under Mogherini.

Police have recovered documents said to be related to the three detained officials' potentially criminal activities, based on suspicion of procurement fraud, corruption, and conflicts of interest.

Belgian police confirmed an investigation was ongoing "to assess whether any criminal offences have occurred”, adding: “All persons are presumed innocent until proven guilty by the competent Belgian courts of law."

The case may center on the college's purchase of a building and involves several millions of euros. According to details in The Guardian:

The case is an unprecedented investigation by the European public prosecutor’s office (EPPO), the only EU body that handles criminal cases, which was launched in 2021 to combat cross-border fraud involving EU funds. The EPPO can bring criminal cases in courts in any of the 24 EU member states that have joined it, including Belgium.

The case centres on whether the College of Europe and or its representatives were informed in advance about the tender for a training programme for young diplomats before the official launch of the bidding process.

The EPPO said it had “strong suspicions” that the rules on fair competition had been breached and that confidential information had been shared with one of the candidates taking part in the tender. The College of Europe in Bruges was awarded a contract to run the European Union Diplomatic Academy in 2021-22 after a decision from the EU foreign service. The EPPO said immunity of the three suspects had been lifted at its request.

The arrested officials are suspected of trading in confidential information and breaching fair competition laws.

Via Wiki Commons

Another source reviewing the probe details the following:

The probe reportedly focuses on the college’s €3.2 million ($3.7 million) purchase of a building on Spanjaardstraat in Bruges, in 2022, shortly before receiving €654,000 in funding from the EEAS. Authorities suspect the institution may have had access to confidential information, undermining fair competition. 

An EU diplomat has been cited in The Guardian praising the European public prosecutor’s office as it "is not afraid to go after big names." The diplomat added: "If the allegations are true, they should be severely punished to send a clear message that any type of corruption is not tolerable in the EU."

As for the College of Europe, many of its graduates go on to senior roles within European institutions and political bodies. All of this is certain to spur on suspicion among sectors of the general public that EU elite circles could be a hotbed for corruption, given billions in public funds are constantly doled out and transferred this way and that.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 13:00

House Republicans Officially Confirm "Operation Choke Point 2.0" Targeted Bitcoin And Crypto Firms

Zero Hedge -

House Republicans Officially Confirm "Operation Choke Point 2.0" Targeted Bitcoin And Crypto Firms

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee have released a 50-page report detailing what they describe as a systematic debanking effort by Biden-era regulators, dubbed “Operation Chokepoint 2.0.” 

While many of the findings — such as the Fed, FDIC, and OCC pressuring banks away from crypto through informal guidance, and the SEC’s “enforce first, make rules never” approach — were previously known, the report now places them squarely in the Congressional record.

The report identifies at least 30 entities that were effectively “debanked” through informal regulatory guidance and supervisory pressure. These businesses, the Committee claims, were forced out of the U.S. banking system without formal enforcement actions.

Government coercion, biased enforcement, and private pressure — all while denying

According to the document, the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) employed a range of tactics to influence bank behavior. 

These included “non-objection” letters, “pause” letters, and other forms of informal guidance designed to make banks hesitant to engage with crypto companies.

Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) allegedly adopted a policy of “enforce first, make rules never,” using selective enforcement rather than clear regulatory frameworks to restrict digital-asset activity. 

The report highlights SAB 121, an SEC guidance that effectively blocked banks from offering custody services for crypto assets.

The report paints a picture of regulators publicly denying any bias against digital assets, while privately pressuring banks to sever ties with crypto firms. The report reads that while regulators consistently denied discouraging digital-asset activity, the evidence collected by the Committee shows a pattern of private pressure and informal coercion. 

Committee Republicans argue these actions represent a revival of Operation Choke Point, a controversial program from the early 2010s that used regulatory and reputational pressure to discourage banks from serving certain high-risk industries. 

The report asserts that the tactics used against crypto firms echo the same methods: informal guidance, opaque supervisory expectations, and reputational risk warnings.

“The lack of clear rules combined with aggressive enforcement has created a chilling effect on the digital-asset sector,” said a Committee spokesperson. “Legitimate American businesses were forced to move abroad or shut down, not because of wrongdoing, but because of regulatory overreach.”

Crypto firms struggled to keep bank accounts

The report includes anecdotal accounts of firms that struggled to maintain bank accounts despite following all applicable laws.

One executive described repeated requests for documentation, sudden account closures, and vague warnings from compliance officers citing regulatory “uncertainty.” 

Another recounted being effectively cut off from the U.S. banking system after submitting a routine regulatory filing.

Republicans on the Committee argue that this environment has stifled innovation and driven financial activity offshore.

They call on Congress and the Biden administration to reverse these policies, provide explicit guidance, and ensure that legitimate crypto firms can access banking services without fear of arbitrary pressure.

The Committee’s full report is available in full on the House Financial Services Committee website.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 12:45

DHS: Nearly 7000 Predatory Migrants Set Free From NYC Jails Since January

Zero Hedge -

DHS: Nearly 7000 Predatory Migrants Set Free From NYC Jails Since January

The Department of Homeland Security has released a statement admonishing NYC officials after cataloging nearly 7000 illegal migrants that have been released from holding facilities instead of retaining them for ICE arrest.  

New York’s failure to honor ICE detainers has resulted in the release of 6,947 criminal illegal aliens since January 20th. The crimes of these aliens include 29 homicides, 2,509 assaults, 199 burglaries, 305 robberies, 392 dangerous drugs offenses, 300 weapons offenses, and 207 sexual predatory offenses.  The predators were released back on the streets without any notification to ICE, a trend which has led to many violent repeat offenses in the past.  

Furthermore, DHS reports that New York is holding another 7113 illegals with dangerous criminal backgrounds and they are refusing to release the prisoners into ICE custody.  The crimes of these aliens include 148 homicides, 717 assaults, 134 burglaries, 106 robberies, 235 dangerous drugs offenses, 152 weapons offenses, and 260 sexual predatory offenses.  DHS officials fear that the criminals will also be set free in the near future.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Director Todd Lyons sent a letter to New York Attorney General Letitia James calling on her to put the safety of Americans first and honor ICE arrest detainers.  

“Attorney General James and her fellow New York Sanctuary politicians are releasing murderers, terrorists, and sexual predators back into our neighborhoods and putting American lives at risk,” said Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin. “We are calling on Letitia James to stop this dangerous derangement and commit to honoring the ICE arrest detainers of the more than 7,000 criminal illegal aliens in New York’s custody. It is common sense. Criminal illegal aliens should not be released back onto our streets to terrorize more innocent Americans.”

The stupidity of open borders activism becomes apparent when examining the real world consequences of unrestricted and unvetted immigration.

Prominent examples of criminal migrants released by sanctuary cities include José Antonio Ibarra, a Venezuelan national who entered illegally, was arrested on misdemeanor charges (shoplifting and permitting an unlicensed person to drive). Local authorities in Athens, GA did not notify ICE despite a detainer request.  Ibarra later murdered 22-year-old nursing student Laken Riley during her jog on the University of Georgia campus, beating her to death. 

Victor Antonio Martinez-Hernandez, a Salvadoran national with prior gang ties, was arrested in El Salvador for an unrelated assault but fled to the U.S. After a minor arrest in Maryland, local officials released him without ICE involvement due to limited sanctuary cooperation.  Martinez-Hernandez raped and murdered 37-year-old mother of five Rachel Morin while she was jogging on a trail in Bel Air, Maryland.

Victor Aureliano Martinez Ramirez, a Mexican national with prior arrests for drug and sexual assault charges (reduced to misdemeanor), was released from Santa Barbara County Jail despite an ICE detainer.  Five days post-release, Martinez Ramirez allegedly raped, tortured, and murdered 64-year-old Marilyn Pharis in her home, stabbing her multiple times. He faces numerous charges along with a co-defendant, Jose Fernando Villagomez. 

Franklin Jose Peña Ramos (Venezuelan) and Johan Jose Rangel Ayala (Venezuelan) were apprehended at the border in March 2024, released with Notices to Appear under CBP's parole program, and not detained further despite initial screening. Houston's limited sanctuary practices allowed community release without ICE follow-up.

In June 2024, the duo allegedly bound, raped, and drowned 12-year-old Jocelyn Nungaray under a bridge.  The list of incidents involving migrants released by Democrats goes on and on.

The track record is a horrific reminder that leftist officials are willing to double down on their ideology even if it results in brutality against their own citizenry.  They do not care.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 12:00

Is the Future still Bright?

Calculated Risk -

It was almost thirteen years ago when I wrote "The Future's so Bright …" I noted that I was the most optimistic since the '90s, and that things would only get better.

I pointed out that housing starts would increase significantly over the next several years, that state and local governments would start hiring again, that the budget deficit would decline sharply, and that household deleveraging was nearing and an end.

As I noted in January 2013: "There are several tailwinds for the economy, and the headwinds (like household deleveraging) are mostly subsiding."

Now these tailwinds have subsided. The significant growth for housing starts, new home sales and vehicle sales, is behind us.

With the exception of data centers, commercial real estate is struggling, and some sectors - like hotels - are in recession.  The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has been in contraction for 35 of the last 37 months, suggesting a slowdown in CRE investment well into 2026.
And the Federal budget deficit is increasing sharply.

Fortunately the unemployment rate is still historically fairly low (but increasing), and household debt service and financial obligation ratios are low. 

I was also positive on demographics too, but unfortunately with less immigration and more prime age deaths, the demographic outlook isn't as favorable as a several years ago.

And we haven't addressed some of the longer term challenges I mentioned thirteen years ago:
There are a number of longer term challenges from rising health care expenditures, climate change, income and wealth inequality and more, but I remain very optimistic about the longer term too. There is a constant focus on the aging population, but by 2020, eight of the top ten largest cohorts (five year age groups) will be under 40, and by 2030 the top 11 cohorts are the youngest 11 cohorts. The renewing of America! And these young people are smart (less exposure to lead is a significant story), and well educated too.
Note: Here is an update on demographics through 2024.
Unfortunately recent policy choices have made the long term challenges more difficult.  But I'm still optimistic that those issues will be addressed.

I'm not currently predicting a recession (although I'm watching), and I expect further growth in 2026, but the near term future isn't as bright now.

Sam Altman Declares 'Code Red' For ChatGPT As Rivals Catch Up; Will Scale Back Advertising Plans

Zero Hedge -

Sam Altman Declares 'Code Red' For ChatGPT As Rivals Catch Up; Will Scale Back Advertising Plans

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declared a "code red" on Monday, telling employees that ChatGPT needs serious improvement in terms of user experience - including personalization features, speed, reliability, and allowing it to answer a wider range of questions.

In a companywide memo, Altman also said that OpenAI would be pushing back work on other initiatives, including advertising, AI agents for health and shopping, and a personal assistant called Pulse, the Wall Street Journal reports. And with hundreds of billions of dollars committed to future data-center investments, they need to remain on top at all costs. 

The company will now hold daily calls with the team responsible for improving the chatbot, while OpenAI's head of ChatGPT, Nick Turley, said Monday on X that the company is now focused on making GPT feel "even more intuitive and personable." 

The announcement comes days after a report in the Financial Times warning that OpenAI rivals from Google and Anthropic are catching up in terms of features and popularity. 

Three years on from the debut of its popular chatbot, the $500bn start-up is grappling with the reality of soaring data centre costs, the technical challenges of remaining at the frontier of AI and the constant battle to retain key talent.

It is also facing a resurgent Google, with the release last week of Gemini 3, Google’s latest large language model, which is considered to have leapfrogged OpenAI’s GPT-5 and achieved gains from the model training process that have eluded OpenAI in recent months.

"It’s quite a strong difference with the world we had two years ago where OpenAI was leading ahead of everyone else," Thomas Wolf, co-founder and chief science officer of open-source start-up Hugging Face told FT. "It’s a new world."

Gemini's user base has been rapidly growing since the August release of an image generator - Nano Banana. According to Google, monthly active users have also grown from 450 million in July to 650 million in October

Anthropic, meanwhile,  is also growing in popularity among business customers. 

Last month Altman told employees that OpenAI would "need to stay focused through short-term competitive pressure . . . expect the vibes out there to be rough for a bit." 

Meanwhile, OpenAI is at a disadvantage - not only are they not profitable, they have to raise money at a near-constant pace to keep their heads above water - something Google and other tech firms that fund growth with revenues don't have to worry about. OpenAI is also outspending its main startup rival, Anthropic, and needs to grow revenue to roughly $200 billion to even have a chance at turning a profit in 2030. 

Google told the Financial Times that their Big Tech group had "pushed our performance quite significantly" by training their AI models using Google's own bespoke chips. 

"Being able to connect with consumers, customers, companies, at that scale is really something that we can do because of that full stack integrated approach that we have," said Koray Kavukcuoglu, Google’s AI architect and DeepMind’s chief technology officer.

That “full stack” includes its custom tensor processing unit chips, which allowed Google to train Gemini 3 without needing to rely on the costly Nvidia chips that most of the AI industry uses. “I think we have a unique approach there,” said Kavukcuoglu.

Google “always had these muscles to flex”, said Michael Nathanson, co-founder and analyst at MoffettNathanson, an equity research firm, adding that the IO event showed that “they really managed to find their product footing”.

The pressure has definitely flipped to Sam Altman and his ability to monetise and keep all the plates spinning,” said Nathanson. -FT

As Google’s Gemini showed a potential step-change improvement vs ChatGPT, the market has found itself mis-aligned and mis-priced for that...

And now, Altman is starting to panic...  

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 11:15

Putin Says 'Ready For War' Against Europe If Attacks On Russian Tankers, Energy Continue

Zero Hedge -

Putin Says 'Ready For War' Against Europe If Attacks On Russian Tankers, Energy Continue

US envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law and unofficial diplomat Jared Kushner have been at the Kremlin on Tuesday for high-level talks with President Vladimir Putin. The Americans are presenting Trump's Ukraine peace plan in its current form after the high stakes Miami meeting with the Ukrainian delegation, which focused on ceding territory and what future boundaries might look like in the Donbass.

President Putin's public words in the context of the meeting wherein the US side is formally pitching the plan have presented an opportunity for him to lash out at Europe. If Europe starts a war with Russia, soon there will be "no one left to negotiate with" - he warned after several EU and NATO officials have lately issued hawkish words and threats.

Russia is not planning to fight European countries, but if Europe starts a war, Russia is "ready right now" - the Russian leader said.

Via The Kremlin/BBC

The Kremlin had last month issued a generally positive outlook on what it framed as genuine efforts of the Trump administration to reach peace settlement in Ukraine. Putin has previously said the now 19-point plan could be a workable basis on which to find a solution. By day's end Tuesday, the world might get a better glimpse of how this is proceeding.

There are reports of a several hours-long meeting unfolding late into the night (local time)...

But on the question of Europe, which has been largely sidelined when it comes to the US peace plan version, Putin is angry. He denounced a recent series of drone strikes on oil and gas tankers carrying Russian energy exports acts of "piracy".

He also on Tuesday made clear that European demands related to Moscow are not at all acceptable, suggesting that they are by intention an effort to prod and anger Russia. He said that "Europe only proposes unacceptable demands," according to Interfax. "They are on the side of war," he said of the Europeans.

“Russia has no intention of going to war with European countries. But if Europe wants war Russia is ready” – Putin has told journalists before meeting Witkoff and Kushner.

"Europe has withdrawn itself from the Ukrainian settlement. It has no peace agenda, and now they are hindering US efforts to achieve a settlement," Putin said additionally. "Europe is putting forward proposals for a peace plan for Ukraine that are unacceptable to Russia."

Putin calls for Western "fantasies" of imposing "strategic defeat" on Russia to end...

Importantly, he also vowed to expand strikes on Ukrainian ports, as retaliation for the some four tankers which have already been hit by Ukrainian attacks, which are believed to have had the support of Western intelligence. According to more of his words via newswires:

  • Europeans have detached from the talks themselves.
  • Attacks on tankers near Turkey are piracy.
  • Will take measures against tankers of countries that help Ukraine.
  • Will increase strikes on facilities and Ukrainian vessels.
  • If attacks continue, Russia may strike Ukraine tankers.

President Zelensky has meanwhile admitted the road ahead will be "tough" - but he's yet to outright reject the Trump-proposed plan, also knowing he could be cut off in terms of US funding and political support at any time. "Now, more than ever, there is a chance to end this war," he has has said during a Tuesday visit to Ireland.

Below is a note contextualizing where things stand via Rabobank...

Ukraine is saying there are still “tough issues” to be resolved to get to a peace deal, but the US revolver on the table may overcome them: the White House team is in Moscow to negotiate; Europeans are not at the table. That’s as Russia claimed Filipino troops are fighting in Ukraine(!); a test of its Satan II ballistic missile failed; a Chinese firm took a stake in a Russian drone maker; and Russia claimed it’s finally captured the strategic Ukrainian towns of Pokrovsk and Vovchansk.

Europe is to revamp its border-control force and told the White House it won’t accept a pardon for Putin’s war crimes in any deal - but what if the US agrees one? The WSJ says ‘Trump’s Push to End the Ukraine War Is Sowing Fresh Fear About NATO’s Future.’ That all smells like a lot more military spending for Europe, and faster than timetabled; or a split between those who see it as necessary and those who think you can defend yourself with committees and acronyms.

* * *

Things in Moscow are looking friendly so far...

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 10:45

No "Unmoved Mover", All Part Of A Now Systemic Metacrisis

Zero Hedge -

No "Unmoved Mover", All Part Of A Now Systemic Metacrisis

By Michael Every of Rabobank

"The unmoved mover" is ancient philosophy from Aristotle interpreted to mean ‘the divine’. For modern Mammon, it means a finance industry with siloed sector coverage grudgingly agreeing that the US is primus inter pares. But not always. Yesterday, markets moved a lot: crypto crumbled, again; stocks were down; and bond yields were up, as were silver and copper. What moved them most was perhaps Japan, not the US.

If you started working in markets after the late 90s, all you’ve known until recently is Japanese low/deflation and ultra-low or negative yields. Not anymore. Japanese CPI is around 3% and has been there for over three years: “transitory”? The 2-year JGB yields is 1.02%, as in 2008; the 10-year yield is 1.88%; and the 30-year is 3.40%, the highest this century and well into the previous. This is leading global bond yields higher just as ‘Japanification’ used to depress yields.

The BOJ is indicating it’s leaning towards a December hike. Yet JPY is still weak given the BOJ base rate is far below the level of inflation. Worse, decades of massive JGB issuance at ultra-low yields ensures higher yields raise questions about debt sustainability; but reversing BOJ course when inflation is high would weaken JPY further, which given Japan’s dependence on imported commodities, would push inflation up even more. Bloomberg called the 10-year JGB auction this morning “a global event” – though with firmer demand than the 12-month average it didn’t meet that top billing.

Indeed, we live in a world full of global events, and most still revolve around the US: but not its monetary policy, rather its political, economic, and military statecraft.

Ukraine is saying there are still “tough issues” to be resolved to get to a peace deal, but the US revolver on the table may overcome them: the White House team is in Moscow to negotiate; Europeans are not at the table. That’s as Russia claimed Filipino troops are fighting in Ukraine(!); a test of its Satan II ballistic missile failed; a Chinese firm took a stake in a Russian drone maker; and Russia claimed it’s finally captured the strategic Ukrainian towns of Pokrovsk and Vovchansk. Europe is to revamp its border-control force and told the White House it won’t accept a pardon for Putin’s war crimes in any deal - but what if the US agrees one? The WSJ says ‘Trump’s Push to End the Ukraine War Is Sowing Fresh Fear About NATO’s Future.’ That all smells like a lot more military spending for Europe, and faster than timetabled; or a split between those who see it as necessary and those who think you can defend yourself with committees and acronyms.

In Latam, as Honduras’ presidential election vote is counted in a very tight race, Trump posted: “Looks like Honduras is trying to change the results of their Presidential Election. If they do, there will be hell to pay!” That’s after Trump had earlier named the only candidate he is prepared to work with. Welcome to the Monroe Doctrine.

Oil markets are monitoring Venezuela, where Trump has reportedly given Maduro a Friday deadline to leave the country as Caracas accuses the US of wanting to “take over its oil resources” and is seeking help from OPEC+: as Stalin asked, “How many divisions do they have?”

Elsewhere, Ukraine not only just struck another oil terminal, but may have attacked a ‘shadow fleet’ ship carrying Russian oil near Singapore. Who had ‘more global attacks on upstream commodity supply chains’ on their bingo cards? Those who listened to our 2026 Financial Markets Outlook.

Not being focused on by oil markets (yet) is Israel saying it will strike Iraq if Iran-backed militias there support Hezbollah, with whom tensions are again running high, as Israeli media also underline risks that Iran may try to attack it, for which Jerusalem is preparing a new spectrum of weapons - as the US warns Israel not to bomb Syria again, with which it’s now partnering against ISIS.

In broader geoeconomics, the Aussie spy boss warned businesses of “hacking, sabotage, and assassinations”;

The WSJ reports Chinese rare-earth dealers are finding ways to dodge Beijing’s export restrictions – is this “because markets” related to the US deepening rare earths supply chains with Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the Netherlands, the UK, Israel, the UAE, and Australia? That’s as European firms report debilitating impacts from rare earths restrictions – one saw it cost 20% of its global revenue, 40% see licensing process added two months-plus to delivery times, 38% expect significant disruption or production stoppages, 11% had to disclose sensitive IP info to get licenses, and 42% said once license is granted, there are further delays gaining customs clearance.

Japan defense firms are seeing sales boom as Tokyo eyes the end of more export curbs – which will also help JGB yields rocket (as Bloomberg says, ‘Japan’s Inflation-Proof ‘Stan Economy’ Is Booming’);

Canada is to join the EU Security Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument (again, what did Stalin say?), as the EU will axe trade perks for countries that refuse to take back failed migrants, and its CBAM carbon border tax is criticized for going easy on ‘dirty’ Chinese imports because “Brussels got its math wrong on the carbon footprint of imports from China, Brazil and the US.”;

In politics, spot the pattern: ‘Germany’s far-right AfD attempts to rebrand as real power comes within reach’ (Politico); ‘German Mittelstand in turmoil after breaking taboo on meeting far’ (FT); ‘France’s business leaders scramble to shape far right’s agenda as election looms’ (Politico); and ‘One in four male Gen Xers now support One Nation’ (AFR). Elsewhere, the head of the UK fiscal watchdog was forced to quit after a pre-Budget info leak – so perhaps now won’t have to testify to Parliament about what happened; and the UK’s new far-left Your Party saw its first conference plagued with cries of factionalism, cliques, splittists, rigged votes, and exclusionary tactics – and decided on a 20-member ruling executive rather than a party leader.

In the economy, Aussie private sector wages just soared 6% y-o-y, outpacing profits: so, not “rate cuts!” then(?) On the other hand, the US financial press warns consumers are ‘losing patience’ with high car prices and are downsizing or opting for second-hand models, as ‘Gen Z Shoppers Aren’t Spending Like Retailers Need Them To.’

In Europe, the think tank Ember claims super-grid plans are threatened by a huge power line funding gap and that “80% of the EU power system is expected to miss the 2030 interconnection target.” The WSJ is blunter and more controversial: ‘Europe’s Green Energy Rush Slashed Emissions - and Crippled the Economy’, adding, “Political consensus is cracking, industry is hobbled and high-profile projects are being postponed thanks to some of the highest electricity prices in the developed world.”

In markets, new RBNZ Governor Breman told parliamentary select committee that she would be “laser focused” on the Bank’s core mandate of low and stable inflation, and she favoured greater transparency. Excellent. Except it’s transparent that we need to ask what a laser focus on low and stable inflation means when so many factors domestic and foreign can impact on it in so many ways and monetary policy has nothing to do with most of them. Tellingly, Powell spoke today and didn’t say anything at all for markets to mull over. Should we start to get used to it(?)

Look around and see that there is no earthly unmoved mover, be it Japan, or crypto, the Mag-7, or any central bank - even the Fed. They are all just part of a now systemic metacrisis.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 10:40

Welcome To Hotel California: Democrats Push Retroactive Billionaire Tax

Zero Hedge -

Welcome To Hotel California: Democrats Push Retroactive Billionaire Tax

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

California was once known as the destination for anyone seeking a fortune, from the Gold Rush to Hollywood. The image of a line of wagon trains heading West has now been replaced by a line of U-Hauls heading anywhere but California. Unable to stem the exodus, California is again toying with retroactive taxes — targeting the wealthy regardless of whether they flee the state.

Welcome to Hotel California, “you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.”

California democrats have long faced the same dilemma of constantly tapping the wealthy to cover their deficit spending: these individuals and their wealth are mobile. They can simply leave and many are doing so. We recently discussed how California is now losing a taxpayer every minute.

Previously, the state moved to tax people who left the state. Now, the state is seeking a billionaire tax and making it retroactive. Thus, even if you were waiting to decide to leave, it is too late. You are being taxed for the prior year.

California Governor Gavin Newsom is pushing the retroactive billionaire tax targeting the roughly 220 billionaires residing in California in 2025. It signals not just desperation in the face of crippling debt and overspending but a recognition that California is chasing its highest earners out of the state.

The “2026 Billionaires Tax Act” would impose a one-time 5% tax on individual wealth exceeding $1 billion. While technically using 2026 wealth figures, it would apply to billionaires who resided in California in 2025.

So you cannot hope to flee… at least with your wealth intact.

It is a penalty for those who stayed too long hoping that rational minds would prevail in California.

The tax is a familiar tactic of many in politics who attack the wealthiest citizens as somehow ripping off the poor.

If states can do this for billionaires, it is likely to do it for those in lower tax brackets as they face the choice between financial discipline and tax increases.

As I discuss in my forthcoming book, Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution, there is a common myth that the top five percent of this country do not “pay their fair share.” However, putting that debate aside, the question is whether it will produce more revenue than it costs the state in the long run. As these politicians campaign on clipping the “fat cats” who are not paying their fair share, many are likely to follow the exodus to lower tax states with greater fiscal discipline.

The constitutionality of a retroactive tax has long been controversial. In Landgraf v. USI Film Products (1994), the Supreme Court declared “the presumption against retroactive legislation is deeply rooted in our jurisprudence… [e]lementary considerations of fairness dictate that individuals should have an opportunity to know what the law is and conform their conduct accordingly; settled expectations should not be lightly disrupted.”

Most Americans are obviously not billionaires, but see the obvious unfairness to such retroactive taxes. People are allowed to make decisions on whether they want to stay in a state and how to invest their money in light of tax and other considerations. These retroactive taxes allow a bait-and-switch for taxpayers as politicians tap wealth from prior years.

However, in United States v. Carlton (1994), the Court addressed a new estate tax deduction for selling stock in employee stock ownership plans that was included in the 1986 tax reform law. In January 1987, the IRS announced that the legislation had a flaw: it did not require a taxpayer to own the stock before dying. New legislation was passed in December 1987 with retroactive effect to the 1986 law.

The Supreme Court refused to strike down the 14 months of retroactive application. Calling the change “modest,” the Court noted that the IRS sent out a quick notice that it would seek a legislative fix, and that the law essentially corrected an unintended error. However, even that left some on the Court uneasy, and justices like Sandra Day O’Connor, Antonin Scalia, and Clarence Thomas warned against “bait-and-switch taxation.” The key was the notice and the fact that it only applied to a single year.

Some retroactive taxes have been struck down. For example, in Blodgett v. Holden, 275 U.S. 142 (1927),  a 12-year period of retroactivity was struck down as “so arbitrary and capricious as to amount to confiscation.”

The Court has left the area a mess of countervailing rationales and holdings. However, it has clearly held that retroactive taxes are not per se unconstitutional. In Welch v. Henry, 305 U.S. 134, 147 (1938), the Court upheld a retroactive tax and held that the outcome depends upon whether “retroactive application is so harsh and oppressive as to transgress the constitutional limitation.” It stressed that:

“Provided that the retroactive application of a statute is supported by a legitimate legislative purpose furthered by rational means, judgments about the wisdom of such legislation remain within the exclusive province of the legislative and executive branches . . .’

The rational basis test is difficult for a state to fail. However, California could force the Court to reexamine this area and offer more concrete protections for citizens who are retroactively fleeced by a state.

Until then, welcome to the Hotel California:

Last thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man
“We are programmed to receive
You can check out any time you like
But you can never leave”

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 10:20

Michael Burry Is (Once Again) Going To Try And Short Tesla

Zero Hedge -

Michael Burry Is (Once Again) Going To Try And Short Tesla

Michael Burry is once again taking aim at Tesla — a reminder of his high-profile 2021 short, when he bet against the stock just before it nearly doubled before dropping from its peak. 

In a new Substack post, the “Big Short” investor called Tesla “ridiculously overvalued” and argued that shareholder dilution will only worsen under Elon Musk’s newly approved $1 trillion pay package.

Burry estimated that Tesla’s stock-based compensation dilutes shareholders by roughly 3.6 percent a year, noting that the company conducts no buybacks to offset it, Yahoo Finance/Bloomberg reported.

Burry used Tesla to illustrate what he described as the “tragic algebra” of tech-sector compensation, and he took a swipe at the company’s shifting narratives: first electric vehicles, then autonomous driving, and now humanoid robots — each emphasis fading once competition arrives, he said.

He did not disclose his current position in Tesla, but the comments add to a recent string of bearish calls. Last month, Burry opened sizable put positions against Nvidia and Palantir, echoing concerns raised by fellow short seller Jim Chanos about Nvidia’s use of vendor financing.

Burry has since deregistered Scion Asset Management and moved his commentary to Substack.

Wall Street, however, has grown more upbeat on Tesla. Melius Research recently deemed the stock a “must own” based on its autonomy efforts and in-house chip development, while Stifel raised its price target and reiterated a Buy rating tied to progress in full self-driving and the robotaxi program.

Burry’s latest broadside comes nearly five years after his last disclosed Tesla wager. In May 2021, Scion held puts on 800,100 Tesla shares, a bet revealed in regulatory filings.

 Burry's first go-round in the name was tumultuous, with Tesla stock up almost double in 2021 after Burry disclosed his position.

At the time, Tesla was coming off a 700 percent surge to record highs before suffering a drawdown — a pattern Burry suggests could repeat.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 10:00

Transcript: Wilhelm Schmid, A. Lange & Söhne CEO

The Big Picture -

 

 

The transcript from this week’s MiB: A. Lange & Söhne CEO Wilhelm Schmid, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple PodcastsSpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

~~~

Barry Ritholtz: This week on an extra special live edition of Masters in Business, I’m at the Audra Newport Concourse de Elegance, and my conversation is with Wilhelm Schmidt. He is the CEO of Ang Zona, one of the finest watch companies in the world. They’re located in Glashutte, Germany.

Our conversation talked about everything from collectible timepieces to collectible cars. I found it fascinating, and I think you will also, with no further ado, my discussion with Alan’s owners, Wilhelm Schmidt. Wilhelm Schmidt, welcome to Bloomberg

Wilhelm Schmid:   Thank you so much, Barry. Thank you.

Barry Ritholtz: Thank you so much for this, for hosting this event and, and participating in our conversation. I have, I have so many things to talk to you about, but I have to start with this prestigious concourse in this spectacular setting on what could be the nicest day of the year. What is the connection between classic cars and fine mechanical time pieces?

Wilhelm Schmid:  Some mean people say me because I like cars and watches and watches and cars, but I think it’s of course more than that. You know, watchmaking is, that’s what we emphasize on and 90% of our energy will go into watchmaking. That, that’s, that’s, that’s our home turf. But I believe as a global brand, you also need to find a world that is focused on something else, but where you have sort of a common ground that you can walk on.

And about 14 years ago, we were looking for a platform where we can show the brand and where we can bring customers to entertain. And if you look at these cars, let’s start with the cars and, and look at the word concourse of elegance. So we are not in vintage cars or racing, it’s about concourse of elegance. You know, it’s about beauty, it’s about heritage, it’s about craftsmanship, it’s about design. And if you look onto the pillars on which our brand rests, it is exactly, it’s it’s history, heritage, it’s design, and it’s of course the craftsmanship. And trust me, these cars that you see here, as they were built, they were built by proper craftsmen. And even today, without proper craftsman, you will not keep them on the road.

Barry Ritholtz: I know that you studied as an engineer and mechanic before eventually moving over to, to watches, obviously the design ethos of some of these cars. Yeah. They’re just so phenomenal and spectacular. What sort of inspiration do you running a, a fine watchmaker take from the designs of these cars?

Wilhelm Schmid: I don’t think you can immediately take something from that world into our world, but if you look at these cars, well, the first thing that comes to mind is some of them are 50, 60, 80, a hundred years old. And we look at them today and they still fascinate us. So obviously that design survived all the different fashion change of taste, odds of time. They’re here today and they’re as attracted as they were probably back then when they were brand new.

If you look at specifically the purpose-built car, you know, the race cars, they were built for only one purpose and that’s what they were perfect in. And I think in watches you also have to identify what is it that you emphasize on, and then don’t compromise too much on it because if you start making big compromises, you end up with something which is, you know, a little bit of everything, but nothing particularly really good. So I think that’s what you can take from cars into watches, identify the purpose, and then everything should direct to achieve that. If I call it the North Star, you know that purpose and for watches, it’s exactly the same. So

Barry Ritholtz: There’s a lovely white Mercedes going out there. (Yes. With the red interior.) And I once heard someone ask you to compare A Lange to a car, and you thought about it and said the gull wing, because the design was purposeful from start to finish. Tell us what you mean by purposeful in either watch or car design.

Wilhelm Schmid: You know, if you, if you go back and think about the mid fifties in Germany, I mean, I wasn’t born there. I’m not that old, but you know, I can, I see, I saw pictures, I saw pictures of the Autobar and I saw the cars on the road back then. And then think about very suddenly something like the gold wing appears. I mean, an alien could have landed and caused the same result.

Barry Ritholtz: Tubular frame up racing an,

Wilhelm Schmid: d 210 horsepower you know, the 235 kilometers an hour high speed. You know what it did, the doors.

Barry Ritholtz: ’cause you couldn’t have a door over that frame exactly for the body, they were too wide.

Wilhelm Schmid: Right. So they just came up with the doors and you know what they did at limit? They wanted to permit that because in the book it, it didn’t say explicitly, it’s not allowed, but, you know, no got much Negotiated.

Barry Ritholtz:  And they did very well,

Wilhelm Schmid: Absolutely they did. Absolutely did it. No, but I think the car was made for one purpose and it was winning races in the first place and, and, and paving the way for Mercedes internationally to be back where they wanted to be. And that is very high up. Don’t forget the price of these cars. I mean, you could probably bought streets for the same price, not houses or streets in, in, in the mid fifties ar

Barry Ritholtz: Arguably the first supercar ever made. So you’re a connoisseur of vintage cars. I know you have a couple of Porsches. Tell us what else you like in, in classic automobiles?

Wilhelm Schmid: I do like the, what I call the odd balls. The Porsche that I have are actually the exceptions because everybody knows what a nine 11 is. And probably many people know what a 356 is. So that’s, I don’t say utility, but these cars are, you know, the, the, the 356 is my Swiss pocket knife.  Because you know, you can go on a tour with it, which I take that car a lot and if the weather is nice, you just open the roof and it takes you 30 seconds and if the rain comes, it takes you 30 seconds to bring the roof back on. It is not as watertight as you think it is. I have to say. There’s still a lot of water coming through, but at least you’re roughly protected against the environment.

And the 911 is the car that I never wanted and I will never sell. It’s just a fantastic driving car. But you know, the other cars that I have are more for people that really know about cars. You know, if I share somebody, I have a Fraser Nash, most people right. Wouldn’t even know what that is. And that’s not a surprise because I think they build about 600 cars pre-war and then about 83 post-war. So the likelihood that you know it, if you’re not into the hobby is very high.

Barry Ritholtz: So I keep me meeting people here, chatting about cars, chatting about watches. When I was doing a little research on you, it turns out that you really know the firm’s clients, both customers and collectors. What do you do in an event like this? How much time do you spend with some of the longer collectors and people who are so enthusiastic about the brand?

Wilhelm Schmid: I would say 90%. You know, really, if I’m not in interviews with you, then I’m out there and, and, and talking to our customers, you know, that’s the most important for us because at the end we mustn’t forget all that is not paid by Lang and Zuna. This is paid by our customers.

Barry Ritholtz: there’s a quote of yours I really enjoyed. We wanna surprise, inspire and enchant our clients with an unprecedented imagination and ingenuity. How do you go from those lofty goals to turning it into a mechanical time piece?

Wilhelm Schmid: Yeah, well first of all, it takes strict discipline. The moment you do things that are not in line with who you are, you may surprise people, but probably not positively. And, and for sure eventually will dilute your, your your brand equity. So the third thing is you have to apply this simply. That’s why we have six different watch families and we have sort of a horizon of seven years and we wanna apply each watch family at least once, let’s say within 24 months rolling. So that’s, you know, sort of the, the engineering structure all attempts. That doesn’t answer your question. I know staying traditional, but thinking out of the box because our value set is very traditional, but our thinking is often very much out of the box.

I give you a good example. The torubillion has been invented by Breguet, I think about 280 years back or so, something like this. It was there to enhance the accuracy of a watch by, you know, eliminating the mistake that happened through gravity, basically

Barry Ritholtz: Mostly pocket watches, which we’re always facing downwards,

Wilhelm Schmid: and of course it’s a very delicate mechanism. It it does do the job because think about you put your watch on desk next to your bed, so at least for 10 hours it is exposed to gravity without moving. Anyhow, I wanna argue the necessity of a ion. What we found very interesting is that it was there to enhance the accuracy, but it was impossible to set time correctly. Because if you do that with a running second, it is pure luck that you hit exactly the point. So we were the first in 2009 to come up with a mechanism that makes the toon stop. So the second hand comes to a stop and you can adjust the time properly. We then went one step further with the 1815 tobe beyond where you’re not only stopped the moment you pull the crown, that second then goes to zero, which is the best way to adjust your watch properly.

Now that sounds easy, but if you take into consideration that that tour beyond has about 85 little parts, the total weight is about oh 0.75 gram wow. You, you know, any impact and the mechanism will be destroyed. So you have to be very careful in what you do. That is just one example where we think out of the box, a chronograph with sort of a, a running minute, which most of them do, you know, the second hand goes and it’s catching the, the minute counter. And then as, as the second hand goes on, the minute counter slowly moves, which makes it quite difficult. Is it now two minutes or three minutes or four minutes. So hours in most cases have the jumping. So it’s the second hand crosses the 12th, it jumps by one minute. So you absolutely clear it’s one minute, two minute, three minute or four minute, not is it two and a half or is it three? Just little things that don’t mean a lot for people that are not into fine watches, but they mean the world for our customers.

Barry Ritholtz: I want to talk about the Odysseus in a little bit. Yes. And that particular chronograph, which is fairly unique, but we’re, we’re not quite there yet. I wanna stay with the fact that Longa is famously a German watchmaker. What advantages are there or disadvantages Yeah. For being a German maker in an industry dominated by giant Swiss brands?

Wilhelm Schmid: I think it’s more an advantage than a disadvantage. First of all, I always say there is no Swiss watchmaking and there’s no German watchmaking. Because think about it. I mean, you can find Swiss made watches for a hundred euro and then you find, find the same for a few million. How, how, how can, how can be there any common denominator that covers the Swiss mate from there to there. So same for Germany. You know, we have watches that are very inexpensive and then you have us with sometimes watches up to 2 million obviously at the, at the top end. It’s like a package, it’s like a box of chocolate, you know. And our chocolate is craftsmanship, history and design. And we stay very strict to it.

00:13:00 [Speaker Changed] So some of the bigger brands put out watches in the millions of units. Rolex famously two to 3 million. Patek is known to do about 75,000 watches. Longa does a small fraction. Every piece is made by hand assembled twice.

Barry Ritholtz: And not because we can’t get it right first time — its assembled first and then the pieces are taken apart and hand engraved and decorated.

Wilhelm Schmid: It’s you know, because we use the original sources, we believe that anything that nothing is much better than, than German silver. You know, that’s the perfect material. It’s been, it’s been good for the last 150 years.  So we believe in this and we don’t want to coat it. Which means over time it will develop a very nice patina, you know, the silver will get that little golden glow, which is beautiful.

Problem is you breathe on it or you touch it, it will look very ugly very soon. And you cannot even clean it. You have to machine it. So that means to, to, to to, to maintain a statical and technical perfection, you first have to make sure your movement is absolutely up to scratch. All tolerances are there, everything is adjusted, everything works.

You go through the test and if you have assurance, you know, that movement is like, it has to be, it goes back to the watchmaker. He or she will disassemble it, clean it, put in the final decoration because now you know you don’t have to adjust anymore because that’s done. You clean it, you oil it, you put the final decoration in case it goes again through the test, and only then it ends up in a, on a, on a happy wrist.

Barry Ritholtz: So inherently the way you build watches, you’re gonna be somewhat limited in production. How, how does that affect the decision making process of what sort of watches you make? And I know there are a number of Longo watches that are limited editions of a hundred or 50 or even 25. Yes. What’s the thinking behind that?

Wilhelm Schmid: Very easy. You know, sometimes let’s take the minute repeater perpetual calendar that we launched this year in April. We know it’s gonna take us three to four years to build to 50 watches.

Barry Ritholtz: Meaning from start to finish you’ll do a couple of watches every year wow

Wilhelm Schmid: You know, so, and we know that. So in today’s world to come up now with this sort of capacity and say we produce a hundred means the last one will get to watch in eight years.

Barry Ritholtz:  That’s a long time

Wilhelm Schmid: Right. So what that’s, you know, capacity balanced by what we think we can expect from a customer to wait, that usually gives an idea about the limitation.

Barry Ritholtz: I was looking at the Lange Perpetual In black. Yes. And I stopped by the boutique and they said figure somewhere between 12 and 15 months. Before yours is ready. So when someone orders a watch. That goes into the system and my watch is moving. Yeah. it’s literally that specific

The Odysseus came out very unique looking sports watch then a lightweight titanium version.

Wilhelm Schmid: No, first the white gold. White gold. So it was 24th of October 19 stainless steel in April, 2020. White gold, then titanium,

Barry Ritholtz: Then the honey gold,

Wilhelm Schmid: Then the honey gold. No then the odys chronograph.

Barry Ritholtz: Ah The chronograph

Wilhelm Schmid: And then the honey gold.

Barry Ritholtz: So I, let’s talk about the chronograph. Most people are familiar with Chronos ’cause they typically have two or three sub dials. YesNot with the Odysseus

Wilhelm Schmid: Now it wouldn’t work because of the design of the dial. You know, if you look at

Barry Ritholtz: ’cause of the big day and date?

Wilhelm Schmid: If you take the dial off and you look at the movement, the upside of the movement, you will see it’s almost all blocked. So there is no way that you come through. And of course we also didn’t want to increase the size by much, you know, we wanna have a wearable watch. So the only way was to utilize the center even more than we usually do. And that’s why the chronograph, the second and the minute hand comes out of the center.

Barry Ritholtz: And when you reset the chronograph, it does a little bit of a dance. Yeah. That’s kind of unusual. I’ve spoken to a lot of people about this. Nobody has been able to explain that to me. You are my last hope.  Tell us about that.

Wilhelm Schmid: It’s very easy because they are yet together. So if you reset it, the, the minute hand will do as many turns as the second because it’s linked. Right. And it’s so quick that you can’t see. It probably would take a good camera and then you slow it down to see it. But basically, if you have stopped 17 minutes and let’s say 30 seconds, what works? Like this is factually seven times going around to come to zero.

Barry Ritholtz: Why does it, why does it do that?

Wilhelm Schmid: Because it’s geared together. It’s, there’s, you know, because it comes out of the,

00:19:05 [Speaker Changed] It’s strictly because of it’s a centen center hands. I think that’s

00:19:07 [Speaker Changed] Exactly the point.

00:19:08 [Speaker Changed] Huh. That, that’s really, that’s really fascinating. So a watch like the Zet work or the Odysseus, how long is that process when someone first conceives of this, take us through how long it is from idea till the finished product in the boutique.

00:19:24 [Speaker Changed] Very different. You know, Odysseus, as I said, took us 25 years. Basically. I think that the real process where we identify, that’s the phase, you know, that looks different to anything else in the market that will not cannibalize anything within our own range. To to to, to launch, to watch it. The 24th of October, in, in, in, in 2019. I was good. Seven years,

00:19:53 [Speaker Changed] Seven years from start to finish. That’s, that’s amazing. Yeah. So, so yesterday at the event two new longest dropped the Axia thin. Yes. In black Onyx and platinum. Is that

00:20:05 [Speaker Changed] Right? Yes. True. Onyx honey, gold and platinum. Yeah.

00:20:08 [Speaker Changed] Really striking dress watches. The Saxon are sort of, I don’t wanna call it entry level, but they’re less pricey than some of the other watches.

00:20:19 [Speaker Changed] They are more simple, simple. That’s how I show it, you know, it’s, for us, it’s all about the amount of parts the years it take to develop the, the hours it takes to assemble that at the end will define whether it’s a complicated watch or I would say more simple watch and two hands. I think we don’t go more simple than two hands.

00:20:40 [Speaker Changed] And my first nice dress watch was a rose gold Saxon mood phase, you see over black. Yes. And one of the things that people are genuinely surprised is the same level of detail and finishing what, what you describe as simple a lot of people think of in terms of price point. There seems to be no difference. No, no, no. It’s,

00:21:03 [Speaker Changed] You know, if you look at our, our process in the manufacturing, we can, you know, the people that work on finish, they sometimes have no idea where that part will end up. So they will not say, oh, that goes into grand complication. We do it a little better. Or that goes into thin. How we do it a little, that’s

00:21:22 [Speaker Changed] The same thing regardless. Million dollars or entry level.

00:21:25 [Speaker Changed] It, we do not distinguish in quality at all. It’s all the same emphasized on lofty detail, craftsmanship, hand polishing, decoration, hand engraving. There is no difference. Double assembly, it’s one process. It doesn’t matter whether the watch would cost 25,000 euro or 2 million.

00:21:47 [Speaker Changed] And when people say to me, I’m looking for an elegant dress watch, but something that’s not too pricey. My answer is always the Saxon, it’s just timeless, so elegant and continues to just, yes, the design gets better over time.

00:22:03 [Speaker Changed] And, and it’s, it’s, it’s ama you know, people, you look at it and you see it’s an Alan on Zuna watch. If you have something complicated like this, you have a lot of hands to work with. You have the sub dials, you know, you have to push back. You can do a lot. But I think one of the biggest challenge for designers is you have two hands to work with and not a lot on the on the dial. Make it an Alan Zuna.

00:22:28 [Speaker Changed] So the data graph has been called one of the best chronographs ever designed. What’s the core of that Watches appeal? What makes that so special?

00:22:39 [Speaker Changed] I think it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s more than just a watch. You know, I, I’m a watch collector for a long, long time. I can remember when I opened a newspaper in, in, in, in, in 20, in, in 94. And I saw the at with the four lunga watches. 99 were, most companies around the world were still using somebody else movement and often the same supplier. Here comes a chronograph, which is one of the crown things in watchmaking from Germany in a very unique design with an outsized date. I think it was a wake up call. And, and, and we must not estimate what that watch started in the watch industry because before that chronograph didn’t play a role. There were two supplier and that was it basically after that. And if you then go and, and, and, and analyze what happened from then to the following 5, 6, 7 years, a lot of chronograph movements came out. So that’s why this watch is so important for us because that was the first real complication other than the tobe beyond polymer that we worked on. And I think that was a wake up call and it, it, it just gave us a reputation as a solid watchmaker that it’s the next level up

00:24:20 [Speaker Changed] For sure. Absolutely. The next level up. So you get to spend a lot of time with, with clients, with customers. Absolutely. With collectors. How are you seeing the, their expectations and desires changing? What does the client base look for from Longo over the next decade? I think it

00:24:38 [Speaker Changed] Does. It never changed.

00:24:40 [Speaker Changed] Never

00:24:41 [Speaker Changed] Changes. No, you know, first of all, do you have any idea what you will like in three years from now, one

00:24:50 [Speaker Changed] Who does?

00:24:50 [Speaker Changed] Exactly. So when people say, oh, you come with a small watch because you follow trend, I say, look, I mean, I wish we had known seven years ago and we started developing the movement. We are not in the fashion industry. Business, you know, our processes and the time it takes to come to market is so long that you maybe can anticipate, but maybe you have to stay true to yourself. And I think the one thing which our customers expect from us is authenticity. It has to be in Lan Zuna. And if you had followed the discussion after we launched the Odysseus, because you know, we always said, we only precious metal in here, can we steal? And later on with titanium, say, of course there was a heated debate. Of course there was. And we were aware of it because that is a tension that on purpose we wanted, there were a lot of people that said, ah, it’s not for me. I see Langa as dress watch only there were luckily a lot more people that say, I want that watch desperately where we can produce fine. However, it just opened up a new chapter in our design language because now we have a playground to try out things that we would never do with our classical watch families.

00:26:19 [Speaker Changed] And every car enthusiast knows when the Porsche nine 11 came out, the 3 56 purists were upset. What, what are you giving us such a big car who needs six cylinders?

00:26:32 [Speaker Changed] Absolutely. That’s why they built a nine 12. Right. Put the four cylinder in. You know, that’s, that’s exactly what they did. So yeah. That’s funny. Sometimes I

00:26:41 [Speaker Changed] I I love this quote of yours and I’m wondering if it still applies. You said part of longer’s success is that we’re a secret. Yeah. So question number one is what makes that an asset? And question number two is look at this event. How much longer is this a secret? Oh,

00:26:58 [Speaker Changed] It is, it is, it is in the white world. We are still absolutely unknown and I think that’s a good place to be. There are, there are three reasons to it. The one is, what we do is very difficult to understand specifically at the price point that we request for people that are not into fine watchmaking. Why would you spend so much money on a watch when your iPhone gives you the time? More precisely. You know, that the general thinking for sure. The second is, in today’s world, you don’t want to show off too much. At

00:27:40 [Speaker Changed] Least these are very much under the radar. And I am always shocked at people who haven’t the slightest idea when I’m wearing this, as opposed to the better known

00:27:49 [Speaker Changed] Brands. Why isn’t that nice? I mean, that gives you a certain confidence and a certain, it’s, it’s, you know, you don’t need to shout. And on the other hand, and I’m sure you can agree on it, if you see somebody that is also having a una it’s not difficult to, to get the communication started. Isn’t it

00:28:08 [Speaker Changed] Immediate, immediately have something to shout about if you know, you know,

00:28:12 [Speaker Changed] You know for sure. And, and that’s why I believe it is so important to remain a secret. I also admit the real challenges to secret, to share the secret with, you know, the right crowd of people. Because at the end, you know, I mean I’m fine, but whenever we take the new apprenticeship trainees in in August, I feel the duty on my shoulders because now they start a career as watchmaker and they’re in for the next 40 years. So we need to make sure that the next generation knows what we do and we stay relevant for this.

00:28:46 [Speaker Changed] So I only have you for a few more minutes. I want to get to my last couple of questions. Speaking of the next generation. Yeah. How do you appeal to younger buyers and and what sort of approach do you have as all these tastes seem to shift amongst the 20 and 30 something crowd?

00:29:07 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I gladly we don’t have a real issue here. We have a surprisingly young customer base. I always say that and I never understood it. I mean, if you are young and you’re interested, what speaks against quality, longevity, classless and timeless design. Robustness, value creation. Yeah. I mean, it doesn’t matter whether you are a hundred years old or 10. If you are into that, you’re gonna like it. The way we connect with these people is different to the way, let’s say I was connected to the watch industry because, and as, as I grew up, it was very difficult to find even specialized magazines for, for watches. Today you have everything you can think of. I believe we live in absolute paradise times for for watch enthusiast because never ever in history have there been more watch brands, higher quality, more information, right. More information and easy accessible information. You know, you can do your research without leaving your room. That was impossible in times, you know, where I started to get into the hobby,

00:30:21 [Speaker Changed] Although I, I would tell people go see the watch. Go try it on, make sure that’s

00:30:26 [Speaker Changed] The only thing that matters. That’s right. It’s the only, I would just say the natural habitat of a wrist watch is, is the wrist a wrist? So forget about looking at thumbing and ah, I like it. That’s a good start. But the moment of truth is you grab that watch, you put it around your wrist, you look at yourself and see is it me or is it not?

00:30:46 [Speaker Changed] So how do you have access to every longer watch? Yeah, there is. How do you decide what you’re gonna grab that day to wear? I,

00:30:54 [Speaker Changed] You know, this one because of, you know, chronograph, we’re in a car world. It’s the 1815, so that’s the more classical line. I’m a huge fan of chronographs and it doesn’t get any better than a Chronograph Raton. So you know that. And I, it’s admit, I think it works very nice with my tan color right now.

00:31:17 [Speaker Changed] So our last question. Tell us what’s next for Longa and Sona? What surprises are coming up down the road? What should we be looking for?

00:31:27 [Speaker Changed] I think it’s always good to look for, but if I now share secrets, there’s no surprise. And that’s the one thing people love surprises. But I can share with you as much as is, this is not the last surprise for this year.

00:31:44 [Speaker Changed] Oh, really? So the, the Saxon Finns not the last surprise of 2025. That’s

00:31:50 [Speaker Changed] What I should

00:31:50 [Speaker Changed] Fantastic. That was my conversation with Wilhelm Schmidt, CEO of Langan Zona at the Newport Oring concourse to Elegance. Extra special thanks to the team that came up to Newport to help film this. Alexis Noriega is my video producer. Sebastian Escobar is my videographer. Anna Luke is my producer. Sage Bauman is the head of podcast at Bloomberg. I’m Barry ols. You’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

~~~

 

 

The post Transcript: Wilhelm Schmid, A. Lange & Söhne CEO appeared first on The Big Picture.

Chinese, Japanese Boats In Tense Standoff Near Disputed Islands As Taiwan-Related Feud Escalates

Zero Hedge -

Chinese, Japanese Boats In Tense Standoff Near Disputed Islands As Taiwan-Related Feud Escalates

The severe diplomatic standoff which was triggered by last month's words of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi wherein she suggested Japan would militarily aid in Taiwan's defense in the event of a Chinese invasion is increasingly becoming a potential military standoff. We earlier detailed that Japan has even deployed medium-range missiles to a remote Japanese island not far from China.

Already there's been a confrontation involving China's coast guard boats, which attempted to run off a Japanese fishing vessel for allegedly being inside claimed Chinese waters. The fresh incident happened near a group of geopolitically sensitive islands in the East China Sea on Tuesday.

Japan and Chinese coast guard vessels have clashed somewhat frequently in the recent past. Illustrative: Kyodo News, via Associated Press

The Japanese boat is accused of entering the waters of the Diaoyu Islands - which Tokyo calls the Senkaku Islands and has long administered. 

But a nearby Japanese Coast Guard ship which had been accompanying the fishing vessel then in turn expelled two Chinese Coast Guard ships as they approached and tried to enforce Beijing's expansive maritime claims over the territory.

The area is already a bit of a flashpoint between the two historic rivals, as Taiwan is located just less than 100 miles southwest of the Senkaku Islands. There are conflicting accounts of the incident, with the Chinese side relating as follows:

China Coast Guard (CCG) spokesperson Liu Dejun said that Chinese vessels on Tuesday approached and warned off a Japanese fishing boat that had "illegally entered the territorial waters of China's Diaoyu Dao", according to a state media report.

Liu added that the CCG took "necessary law enforcement measures", claiming that the islands were Chinese territory and urging Japan to "immediately stop all acts of infringement and provocation in these waters".

However, Japan has countered that its coast guard boats approached the Chinese vessels shortly after they were seen breaching Japanese waters and issued warnings and threats demanding they leave sovereign waters.

The current broader standoff over PM Takaichi's Taiwan comments is now trickling down to the common populations on either side, as events like concerts have been canceled:

The abrupt cancellations of several Japanese music events in Shanghai - one of them midway through a song - have sparked criticism among fans, with some calling the moves "rude" and "extreme".

Maki Otsuki was halfway through the theme of hit anime One Piece on Friday when the lights and music went off, after which she was rushed off stage by two crew members.

On Saturday, pop star Ayumi Hamasaki performed to an empty 14,000-seat stadium after organizers axed her concert in Shanghai, citing "force majeure".

This spate of cancellations come as diplomatic tensions between Beijing and Tokyo fester over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan.

China earlier warned Japan will suffer a "crushing" defeat if it ever decided to directly intervene in the Taiwan dispute. Recent years have also seen Beijing's anger grow after NATO briefly talked about opening an official office in Tokyo, but these plans were soon abandoned for the time being.

Source: VOA

Last month China's foreign ministry warned that "Right-wing forces in Japan are ... leading Japan and the region toward disaster." Foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning further told a regular news briefing. Beijing "is determined and capable of safeguarding its national territorial sovereignty."

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 09:00

Chinese, Japanese Boats In Tense Standoff Near Disputed Islands As Taiwan-Related Feud Escalates

Zero Hedge -

Chinese, Japanese Boats In Tense Standoff Near Disputed Islands As Taiwan-Related Feud Escalates

The severe diplomatic standoff which was triggered by last month's words of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi wherein she suggested Japan would militarily aid in Taiwan's defense in the event of a Chinese invasion is increasingly becoming a potential military standoff. We earlier detailed that Japan has even deployed medium-range missiles to a remote Japanese island not far from China.

Already there's been a confrontation involving China's coast guard boats, which attempted to run off a Japanese fishing vessel for allegedly being inside claimed Chinese waters. The fresh incident happened near a group of geopolitically sensitive islands in the East China Sea on Tuesday.

Japan and Chinese coast guard vessels have clashed somewhat frequently in the recent past. Illustrative: Kyodo News, via Associated Press

The Japanese boat is accused of entering the waters of the Diaoyu Islands - which Tokyo calls the Senkaku Islands and has long administered. 

But a nearby Japanese Coast Guard ship which had been accompanying the fishing vessel then in turn expelled two Chinese Coast Guard ships as they approached and tried to enforce Beijing's expansive maritime claims over the territory.

The area is already a bit of a flashpoint between the two historic rivals, as Taiwan is located just less than 100 miles southwest of the Senkaku Islands. There are conflicting accounts of the incident, with the Chinese side relating as follows:

China Coast Guard (CCG) spokesperson Liu Dejun said that Chinese vessels on Tuesday approached and warned off a Japanese fishing boat that had "illegally entered the territorial waters of China's Diaoyu Dao", according to a state media report.

Liu added that the CCG took "necessary law enforcement measures", claiming that the islands were Chinese territory and urging Japan to "immediately stop all acts of infringement and provocation in these waters".

However, Japan has countered that its coast guard boats approached the Chinese vessels shortly after they were seen breaching Japanese waters and issued warnings and threats demanding they leave sovereign waters.

The current broader standoff over PM Takaichi's Taiwan comments is now trickling down to the common populations on either side, as events like concerts have been canceled:

The abrupt cancellations of several Japanese music events in Shanghai - one of them midway through a song - have sparked criticism among fans, with some calling the moves "rude" and "extreme".

Maki Otsuki was halfway through the theme of hit anime One Piece on Friday when the lights and music went off, after which she was rushed off stage by two crew members.

On Saturday, pop star Ayumi Hamasaki performed to an empty 14,000-seat stadium after organizers axed her concert in Shanghai, citing "force majeure".

This spate of cancellations come as diplomatic tensions between Beijing and Tokyo fester over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan.

China earlier warned Japan will suffer a "crushing" defeat if it ever decided to directly intervene in the Taiwan dispute. Recent years have also seen Beijing's anger grow after NATO briefly talked about opening an official office in Tokyo, but these plans were soon abandoned for the time being.

Source: VOA

Last month China's foreign ministry warned that "Right-wing forces in Japan are ... leading Japan and the region toward disaster." Foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning further told a regular news briefing. Beijing "is determined and capable of safeguarding its national territorial sovereignty."

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 09:00

Pages