(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.4%, up from 52.6% the previous month. The employment index increased to 52.0%, up from 48.9%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 54.4% December 2025 ISM® Services PMI® Report

Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in December, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered at 54.4 percent, finishing 2025 on a positive note with its 10th month in expansion territory — and its highest reading — of the year.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee:

“In December, the Services PMI® registered a reading of 54.4 percent, 1.8 percentage points higher than the November figure of 52.6 percent and a third consecutive month of expansion. The Business Activity Index continued in expansion territory in December, registering 56 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher than the reading of 54.5 percent recorded in November. The New Orders Index also remained in expansion in December, with a reading of 57.9 percent, 5 percentage points above November’s figure of 52.9 percent. The Employment Index expanded for the first time in seven months with a reading of 52 percent, a 3.1-percentage point improvement from the 48.9 percent recorded in November — the fifth consecutive monthly increase since a reading of 46.4 percent in July.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 51.8 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than the 54.1 percent recorded in November. This is the 13th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 64.3 percent in December, its lowest level since a reading of 60.9 percent in March 2025. The December figure was a 1.1-percentage point drop from November’s reading of 65.4 percent. The index has exceeded 60 percent for 13 straight months.br /> emphasis added

Employment expanded following six consecutive month of contraction.

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires were little changed and total separations were unchanged at 5.1 million each. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.
emphasis added

The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for November; the employment report to be released on Friday will be for December.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Jobs openings decreased in November to 7.15 million from 7.45 million in October.
The number of job openings (black) were down 11% year-over-year. 

Quits were up 4% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

Some Republicans Are Distancing Themselves From MAGA

Tuesday marks five years since the January 6 unrest of 2021, when self-proclaimed MAGA supporters entered the Capitol.

Now, with Donald Trump back in the White House and entering the second year of his second term in office, a recent poll by NBC News Decision Desk shows signs that his strong support base has started to splinter.

As Statista's Anna Fleck details below, the share of self-identified MAGA (Make America Great Again) supporters ticked down seven percentage points between April and December in 2025, from 57 percent of Republicans to 50 percent.

This loss was mirrored by the increase of seven percentage points among self-identified traditional Republican party members, which rose from 43 percent to 50 percent.

You will find more infographics at Statista

The shift indicates there had been a distancing of some members of the party from Trump within that timeframe, while the subsection maintained party values.

Meanwhile, the share of Republican voters who said they strongly approved of Trump’s actions ticked down.

Among traditional Republicans, strong approval ticked down from 38 to 35 percent, while among MAGA supporters, strong approval dropped to 70 percent from 78 percent - still a strong majority.

Over the eight months between the two survey waves, the Trump administration has had to contend with the resurgence of the Epstein files as well as growing criticism over his handling of the economy and trade, in a country where concerns over the cost of living are high.

As of the December poll, overall approval stood at 42 percent, with overall “strong approval” at 21 percent.

It remains to be seen how the capture of deposed president Nicolas Maduro will affect Trump's ratings.

Reuters reports that among MAGA supporters, the move has so far been largely praised.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 09:55

Somali UN Ambassador Linked To Ohio Health Care Company Sanctioned For Medicaid Fraud, HHS Says

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has confirmed that Abukar Dahir Osman, Somalia’s permanent representative to the United Nations and the current president of the U.N. Security Council, is associated with an Ohio-based home health care company that the federal government previously took action against following a Medicaid fraud conviction.

“I can confirm public speculation that Ambassador Abukar Dahir Osman, Permanent Representative of Somalia to the UN and President of the Security Council, is in fact associated with Progressive Health Care Services, a home health agency in Cincinnati,” HHS Deputy Secretary Jim O’Neill said in a Jan. 5 post on X.

“HHS has previously taken action against Progressive in response to a conviction for Medicaid fraud. More to come.”

O’Neill and HHS did not immediately provide details about the nature of the Medicaid fraud case or specify what enforcement actions were taken against Progressive Health Care Services.

The Epoch Times has contacted Progressive Health Care Services for comment, including details about the referenced Medicaid fraud conviction, any enforcement actions taken, and the company’s current regulatory status. No response was received by publication time.

Osman’s ties to the Ohio company drew widespread attention last week after people on social media circulated records suggesting he held a senior corporate role while simultaneously serving as Somalia’s top diplomat to the United Nations.

Screenshots of Osman’s LinkedIn profile, shared by the Libs of TikTok social media account, list him as having served as “Managing Director” of Progressive Health Care Services from 2014 to May 2019—overlapping with his tenure as Somalia’s permanent representative in New York. Other publicly available records indicate he was also listed as president and chief executive officer of the company.

Libs of TikTok further reported that the firm’s National Provider Identifier appeared on a federal exclusion list under a code associated with Medicare and Medicaid-related crimes. HHS has not publicly confirmed those specific details.

Osman is serving as president of the U.N. Security Council for January 2026, a rotating position held by member states on a monthly basis.

The Epoch Times has reached out to Somalia’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations seeking comment from Osman on the HHS statement and his association with Progressive Health Care Services. No reply was received by publication time.

Context of Broader Fraud Investigations

The disclosure involving the U.N. ambassador comes as federal and state authorities investigate what officials have described as large-scale fraud schemes involving government-funded programs across several states.

In Minnesota, the Feeding Our Future case—now the largest pandemic-related fraud prosecution in U.S. history—has resulted in dozens of convictions. Federal prosecutors allege that organizers falsely claimed to provide meals to children while diverting hundreds of millions of dollars in taxpayer funds.

Additional investigations into Medicaid-funded services, including home health care and autism therapy programs, are ongoing. Federal officials have said the total fraud exposure across just a subset of Minnesota’s Medicaid programs could exceed $9 billion.

President Donald Trump and senior administration officials have recently taken enforcement action against Minnesota, including freezing federal child care funds after alleged fraudulent day care schemes were uncovered.

FBI Director Kash Patel recently revealed that federal officials have indicted dozens of people in an alleged $250 million scheme in Minnesota that allegedly included crimes such as wire fraud, money laundering, and conspiracy.

The Small Business Administration recently suspended nearly 6,900 Minnesota borrowers from future federal loan programs after reviewing pandemic-era Paycheck Protection Program and Economic Injury Disaster Loan approvals. SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler said the borrowers had received roughly $400 million in loans now under investigation.

Amid mounting scrutiny, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a Democrat, announced on Jan. 5 that he would not seek reelection, saying he wanted to focus on combating fraud instead of campaigning.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 09:35

Climate-Change Fears Drop, AI Anxiety Pops: What Will Happen In 2026?

If the last years have shown us anything, it’s that a lot can change, fast.

While many events cannot be foreseen, can others?

Ipsos asked more than 23,600 people across 30 countries about their predictions for the coming year, with a survey on topics ranging from artificial intelligence to the climate and the World Cup.

This data is based on one survey alone and although it does not focus on additional knowledge of experts and analysts, it does capture a snapshot of sentiments and standpoints in different countries and regions.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the following chart, many people around the globe seem to be in agreement that global temperatures will rise in 2026. Around eight in ten respondents (78 percent) said that next year, we can expect the world to warm further still. This belief was most widespread in Indonesia (91 percent), Singapore (90 percent), South Korea (86 percent) and Malaysia (85 percent). In a similar vein, nearly seven in ten (69 percent) of respondents said they expect to see more extreme weather events in the country that they live in than last year. Meanwhile, only 48 percent of respondents felt that their government will introduce more demanding targets to reduce emissions. Respondents in Indonesia were the most optimistic about this prospect (80 percent).

You will find more infographics at Statista

Views on whether the conflict currently raging in Ukraine will come to an end in 2026 were pessimistic.

Only around three in ten people (29 percent) thought it would be the case in Ukraine, although this marks a three percentage point increase on predictions from the same time one year ago.

In terms of the online world, two thirds of respondents (67 percent) said that they expect AI will replace jobs in their country in 2026, up three percentage points from last year.

At the same time, 43 percent agreed that AI will lead to many new jobs being created in their country.

Other job worries persist, with almost half of the total respondents predicting that their country will be in recession in 2026, with Turkey (68 percent), Thailand (66 percent) and Romania (63 percent) reporting the highest shares of people who held this opinion.

Nearly two in five worldwide (38 percent) think major stock markets around the world will crash.

While Trump has repeatedly asserted that he would like a Nobel Peace Prize, the vast majority thinks this is unlikely to happen. A total of 21 percent of respondents said they think this is likely, compared to 64 percent who said they thought it was not. India had the highest share of respondents who said they thought it would happen, at 51 percent. In the United States, 25 percent said the same.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 09:15

ADP Private Payrolls Rebound But Miss Estimates After California Jobs Tumble

One month after ADP reported a dismal -29K private payrolls print for November, tied for the worst month since March 2023, and just in time to validate the Fed's latest rate cut, moments ago ADP reported that in December, the US added 41K payrolls, which while a solid jump from last month's -29K, missed consensus estimates of a +50K print. 

The breakdown showed continued weakness in manufacturing jobs, which shrank by 3K in December, offset by a 44K increase in Service jobs, despite another notable drop in Information (-12K) and Professional/Business services (-29K) jobs. Also notable is that all the weakness was in the Western region (read California) where 61K jobs were lost, while a breakdown of establishments by size saw solid hiring by small and medium companies, offset by a modest 2K increase amid Large companies.

“Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson.

There was more good news for the Trump admin which appears to have halted the sharp deterioration in the labor market: year-over-year pay for job-stayers rose 4.4% in December, unchanged from November while jobchangers saw their pay growth accelerate to 6.6% from 6.3%.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 08:59

Medicaid Will 'Claw Back' Fraud Funds From Minnesota: Agency Head

Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,

Minnesota will feel an “increasing vise grip of financial penalties” to help make up for taxpayer dollars lost to fraud, Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Service, said Jan. 6.

His agency is auditing all 14 Medicaid programs that Minnesota flagged as vulnerable to fraud; that excludes 73 other Medicaid programs Minnesota runs.

The agency also will “claw back that money” from current Medicaid payments that were to be made to Minnesota, Oz told Fox News.

“This is a major problem for the state, because they’ve got to own the fact that they have been bilking the federal taxpayer [because of] their sloppy behavior for years,” Oz said.

The Epoch Times sent a message to Gov. Tim Walz’s office seeking comment but received no immediate reply.

During a news conference earlier in the day, Walz said he would refuse to step down from the governorship amid the fraud scandals, although he announced Jan. 5 that he was abandoning his reelection bid. His current term in office expires in January 2027.

The governor also criticized President Donald Trump for clamping down on Somalis. Amid increasing concerns over Somalis being accused of defrauding government programs, the president recently halted a deportation protection that had been afforded to Somali refugees for decades and also ramped up federal scrutiny.

A large percentage of Minnesota fraud defendants charged so far are of Somali descent, federal prosecutors have said.

“Somali immigrants who are minding their own business” are facing unfair federal actions, such as Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations, Walz said. More than 2,000 federal agents from the Department of Homeland Security have surged to Minnesota as fraud concerns have swelled.

In addition, the federal government has cut off payments to child care centers in Minnesota and is requiring additional verification of children being served.

Oz said his agency has had difficulty tracking at least $500 million in Medicaid payments to Minnesota. Available data makes it hard to figure out how it was billed and “where it went,” he said.

Officials asked Walz to provide a “corrective action plan” by the end of 2025, but the Walz administration responded late—on New Year’s Eve—with a plan that Oz called “insufficient.” As a result, the federal government is clamping down on Minnesota Medicaid payments, he said.

President Trump doesn’t want taxpayers across the nation footing the bill for Minnesota’s roughly 6 million residents, Oz said.

Officials see signs that government-program fraud or misuse may be higher in California than it is in Minnesota, Oz said, but he gave no figures. California, home to about 39 million people, is six and a half times more populous than Minnesota.

In the North Star State, an attitude known as “‘Minnesota Nice’ made it easy for them to make out like bandits,” Oz said. Minnesota has a longstanding tradition of providing generous social benefits without asking many questions, as The Epoch Times reported previously. That attitude—which may have made the state more susceptible to fraudsters—appears to reflect values of the Scandinavian immigrants who settled in Minnesota.

Beyond the burgeoning fraud scandals, Oz raised an additional concern arising from use of Medicaid. He recently learned that, under federal law, “if you sign someone up for Medicaid, you also give them the right to vote.”

“So, you’re building up a very partisan group of individuals. This is political patronage at the expense of Medicaid,” he said. “The criminal part here is not just a horrible waste and fraud and abuse of our federal ... tax dollars, but you’re taking money from our most vulnerable citizens.”

“If you’re lying about the fact that you have Somalian kids pretending to be autistic, that takes services away from kids who truly have autism. ... You’re penalizing our most vulnerable,” he said.

That’s why the Trump administration “will not tolerate this,” Oz said.

“We’re aggressively going after this fraud.”

Federal prosecutors have charged dozens of people, mostly Somalis, with defrauding programs intended to feed meals to children, provide children with therapy for autism, and provide affordable housing to the elderly and disabled. Dozens of defendants have already been convicted, and prosecutors expect additional suspects to be charged in those schemes and possibly others. Generally, the fraudsters filled out bogus paperwork, claiming to provide services that were never rendered, prosecutors said, then reaped payments for those services through federal programs.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 08:45

The post Trump’s United States as Number Three appeared first on CEPR.

Stocks Head For First Drop Of 2026 As Focus Turns To Geopolitics, Macro

US equity futures are weaker but off session lows, as markets pause ahead of a series of US labor and economic data. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.1% as global equity markets have run into some resistance after a strong start to 2026; Nasdaq futures dip 0.2% with TMT underperforming premarket, with most Mag7 and Semis names lower while Energy, Healthcare and Staples rallying pre-mkt. Bonds are bid with yields down 2-4bp as the curve flattens; the USD is unchanged. n commodities, Ags are the bright spot as we see some profit-taking in Metals and oil fell after Trump said Venezuela would turn over as many as 50 million barrels of crude to the US with sales proceeds are expected to be split between the two countries. Today's US economic calendar includes December ADP employment change (8:15am), December ISM services index, November JOLTS job openings and October factors orders (10am). Scheduled Fed speakers include Bowman on banking supervision and regulation at 4:10pm

 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Nvidia +0.6%, Tesla +0.2%, Apple -0.2%, Alphabet -0.3%, Microsoft -0.1%, Amazon -0.2%, Meta Platforms  -0.4%)

• Miners and royalty companies are down as gold and silver pull back with broader markets as traders look to upcoming US economic data later this week.
• AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS) falls 6% after Scotiabank cut the recommendation on the satellite broadband company to sector underperform, saying it faces an “uphill battle” given the leadership position of Elon Musk’s Starlink.
• First Solar Inc. (FSLR) falls 4% after Jefferies cut its recommendation to hold from buy on concerns over tariffs and its valuation.
• Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY) climbs 10% with the company to acquire Israeli startup Mentee Robotics in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $900 million, as the self-driving car system company expands its robotics capabilities.
• Monte Rosa Therapeutics (GLUE) rises 38% after the biotech announced positive interim data from an ongoing Phase 1 clinical study.
• Strategy (MSTR) climbs 4% after MSCI decided for now to keep digital asset treasury companies in its stock market indexes.
• StoneCo (STNE) falls 5% after after the Brazilian digital payments company said CEO Pedro Zinner will resign for personal reasons effective March 2026.
• Ventyx Biosciences Inc. (VTYX) is up 56% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Eli Lilly & Co. is in advanced talks to acquire the company for more than $1 billion to expand its work in immunology.

In corporate news, MSCI decided against excluding digital-asset treasury companies from its MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes in its February review, sending Strategy higher in extended trading. And an Amazon AI tool offered merchants’ products without their consent.

Stocks have been on a tear on optimism over solid earnings growth and inflation remaining sufficiently contained for the Federal Reserve to keep cutting interest rates. That optimism has persisted despite a worsening geopolitical backdrop, including US actions in Venezuela, its threats of intervention elsewhere and rising tensions between China and Japan. But on Wednesday, the global rally stalled with geopolitical strains dampening the mood. Three big days of data are kicking off, with JOLTS job openings and ADP numbers due later. Memory chip shortages are in focus for AI bulls.

“Shifting trends create uncertainties that need to be priced into assets,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro and multi-asset at Lombard Odier. “We are talking about a breathing period, with investors taking time to rethink how to deploy their concentrated equity investments in a deconcentrating world.”

Mining stocks were among the biggest decliners in premarket trading, with Newmont Corp., Freeport-McMoRan Inc. and Barrick Mining Corp. all down 1% or more. Precious metals joined the broader pullback, with silver falling below $80 an ounce and gold breaking a three-day winning streak. Copper retreated from an all-time high. 

For AI bulls, memory chips are in focus after comments from Nvidia’s Jensen Huang about the need for memory and storage at CES on Tuesday. Stocks including Sandisk and Western Digital have surged in the past few days, and the rally is likely to continue: Samsung expects shortages to drive price hikes and DRAM specialist Nanya posted 445% year-on-year sales growth for December. 

Three key days of economic data kick off on Wednesday as investors track the Fed’s likely path for rates, with November jobs openings and ADP Research’s private-sector payrolls figures due. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services is expected to show a slight moderation in December activity. 

“Further declines in the JOLTS hiring and quit rates would add to signs of worsening labor demand,” wrote Elias Haddad, global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. “If so, it would validate the 50 basis points of cuts priced into Fed funds futures over 2026 and weigh on the dollar.”

Ahead of a slate of data in the next few days, a record-sized block trade was placed in the federal funds futures market. The trade was struck in the January contracts for a size of 200,000, the largest ever as confirmed by CME Group. The motive behind the transaction is unclear. It could be related to an unwinding of existing bets or a wager that could benefit from a potential shift in market pricing for the Fed’s next rate decision.

Other developments rattling sentiment include comments from the White House that Trump is considering many ways of acquiring Greenland, and won’t rule out the use of military force. In Asia, China escalated a feud with Japan by announcing a probe on chipmaking material, while rare earth stocks surged on the back of new China-Japan export curbs.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is little changed with energy stocks a drag as oil prices slide. Energy stocks lag after President Donald Trump said Venezuela would send oil worth up to $2.8 billion to the US, while utilities outperform. 

Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

• Italgas shares rise as much as 10% to hit a new record high after gas distribution operator Snam announced an offer of green bonds due 2031 in an aggregate notional amount of €500m, exchangeable for existing ordinary shares of Italgas.
• Thyssenkrupp shares gain as much as 5.3%, leading defense stocks higher after the Trump administration and Ukraine’s allies moved toward an agreement to offer security guarantees long sought by Kyiv.
• ArcelorMittal shares climb as much as 3.5% to the highest level in nearly 14 years after Morgan Stanley installed the stock as top pick in Europe’s steel sector.
• Atlas Copco shares rise as much as 9% to the highest level since February after Bernstein upgrades on expectations that earnings have bottomed.
• InPost shares retreat as much as 8.3%, ceding some of the previous day’s 28% gain triggered by the parcel locker operator’s announcement of a takeover proposal.
• Fresnillo shares drop as much as 4.1%, leading precious metal miners lower as gold prices decline.
• NatWest shares fall as much as 3% after they are downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Barclays.
• Equinor shares slip as much as 3.8% as European oil stocks track crude prices downwards after Trump said Venezuela would relinquish as much as 50 million barrels of oil to the US.
• Kingspan shares drop as much as 5.4% after the company said it won’t pursue an IPO of Advnsys and will continue to report the data center materials unit as a wholly owned and broadly distinct reporting segment.
• Redcare Pharmacy shares plunge as much as 9.7%, the most since August, after the company posted fourth-quarter sales that came in below expectations due to weakness in over-the-counter products.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities declined, as escalating trade tensions between China and Japan damped investor sentiment following the recent rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.7%, poised to snap a four-day advance. Technology megacaps including TSMC and Tencent were among the biggest drags, while Alibaba dropped on fresh concerns over Beijing regulations. A key gauge of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong led losses, while benchmarks in Japan and Taiwan also fell. China imposed controls on exports to Japan with potential military uses, intensifying a standoff between Asia’s top economies in a dispute related to Taiwan. Automakers were the biggest contributor to losses in Japan on the news. The Japan-China squabble is causing some jitters after a strong start to the year for the region’s stocks. The rally had also started to show signs of overheating. The 14-day relative strength index for the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed above 70 this week, entering technical overbought territory for the first time since early October.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed with muted moves across the G-10 complex.

In rates, treasury futures hold gains accumulated during London morning amid bigger rallies in European bond markets spurred in part by weak German retail sales data for November. US yields richer by 1bp-4bp across a flatter yield curve, with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads respectively 3bp and 2bp tighter; 10-year near 4.145% is about 3bp richer by 3bp on the day with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by 1.5bp and 4.5bp. European government bonds advance for a third day, with buying more pronounced at the longer end of the curve. German 10-year yields fall 4 bps to a one-month low after weak economic data prompted traders to increase their bets on interest-rate cuts by the European Central Bank. Gilts outperform, with UK 10-year borrowing costs sliding 7 bps. European borrowers brought a record number of tranches to the market on Wednesday and are set to raise at least €38.1 billion ($44.5 billion), a number that’s likely to increase over the course of the day. Issuance in the US investment-grade bond market topped $72 billion in the first two days of the week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Focal points of US session include December ADP employment change and ISM services gauge and November JOLTs job openings. 

In commodities, WTI crude futures fall 0.5% to $56.80 a barrel after Washington moved to exert greater control over Venezuela’s industry, with President Donald Trump saying the country would turn over millions of barrels to the US. West Texas Intermediate traded near $57 a barrel. Investors were also keeping tabs on the primary bond market as the first week of 2026 saw a surge in global issuance, signaling strong confidence despite heightened geopolitical risks. Spot silver falls 2% and back below $80/oz. Gold also drops. Bitcoin is down 1.3% near $92,000.

Today's US economic calendar includes December ADP employment change (8:15am), December ISM services index, November JOLTS job openings and October factors orders (10am). Scheduled Fed speakers include Bowman on banking supervision and regulation at 4:10pm. Albertsons is scheduled to report results before the market open. Earnings from Jefferies and Costco December sales are due later in the day.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed, DAX +0.6%
• CAC 40 -0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.14%
• VIX +0.4 points at 15.15
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1205.69
• euro little changed at $1.1692
• WTI crude -0.9% at $56.59/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Marco Rubio has told lawmakers that President Trump plans to buy Greenland rather than invade it, while Trump has asked aids to give him an updated plan for acquiring the territory. NYT 
• Trump will meet with oil company chief executives Friday at the White House to discuss plans for them to enter Venezuela and drill. Trump announced that Venezuela would relinquish 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the US, worth roughly $2.8 billion at the current market price. BBG 
• China's Foreign Ministry said China's legitimate rights and interest in Venezuela must be protected, in regards to US President Trump's statement on Venezuela oil.
• The US for the first time on Tuesday backed a broad coalition of Ukraine's allies in vowing to provide security guarantees that leaders said would include binding commitments to support the country if Russia attacks again. RTRS 
• Chevron and private equity firm Quantum Capital Group are teaming up on a bid to buy the international assets of sanctioned Russian oil company Lukoil. FT 
• China launched an anti-dumping probe into Japan’s chipmaking material dichlorosilane, deepening trade tensions after Beijing imposed export curbs — potentially affecting over 40% of its shipments to the country. Tokyo called the measures unacceptable. BBG 
• AI “fatigue” is driving cash into shares of S&P 500 companies that aren’t the Magnificent 7, especially those that would benefit most if an expected uptick in economic growth materializes. BBG
• old is neck and neck with Treasuries to become the biggest reserve asset for foreign governments, driven by a year of explosive price gains and aggressive central bank buying. Barron’s 
• Eurozone CPI for Dec was inline on the headline at +2% (down from +2.1% in Nov) while core cooled to +2.3% (vs. the Street +2.4% and down from +2.4% in Nov). BBG 
• Waner Bros. Discovery Board of Directors unanimously recommended shareholders reject amended Paramount tender offer, saying the offer remains ‘Inadequate.’ BBG 
• Goldman forecast MSCI China and CSI300 to appreciate 20% and 12% in 2026, after key benchmarks gained 20%-30% in the past year mainly on multiple expansion. 

Trade/Tariffs

• China's Commerce Ministry announces an anti-dumping probe into Japan Dichlorosilane imports; investigation begins on Jan 7 and will end a year later, but can be extended by 6 months if needed.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said China curbs targeting only Japan are regrettable, adds we'll consider necessary response as we assess China's export curb details.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed as momentum began to wane despite the fresh record levels on Wall Street. ASX 200 marginally gained amid  strength in tech and defensives, while participants also digested monthly inflation data, which printed softer-than-expected but remained sticky. Nikkei 225 lagged amid Japan's frictions with China after the latter imposed export controls on dual-use items to Japan. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp retreated with the Hong Kong benchmark pressured by losses in energy names and tech stocks following a decline in oil prices, and with platform names pressured by China announcing management measures for online platforms. Meanwhile, the mainland bourses kept afloat for most of the session but eventually faltered as the mood deteriorated and were also not helped by a substantial net liquidity drain of around CNY 500bln in the PBoC's open market operations.

Top Asian News

• Maersk (MAERSKB DC) said Asia-Pacific ocean freight markets enter 2026 with cautious optimism; intra-Asia volumes are gaining momentum, and supply chain planning is increasingly focused on agility, regional connectivity, and early Chinese NY preparations.
• South Korea's President Lee said had a serious talk with China regarding supply chains and peace on the Korean Peninsula.
• Baidu's (9888 HK) AI chip arm Kunlunxin aims to raise up to USD 2bln in Hong Kong IPO, according to Bloomberg citing sources. - Co. has picked China International Capital Corp., Citic Securities Co. and Huatai Securities, while China Securities International is also working on the potential offering.
• UMC (2303 TT) Dec (TWD): Revenue 19.3bln (prev. 19.0bln Y/Y).
• China's market regulator and cyberspace authorities unveiled two separate documents on Wednesday to further regulate the country's livestreaming e-commerce sector and online trading platforms, Xinhua reported.
• China announces management measures for online platforms and China's market regulator said online platforms must not sell below cost or disrupt market competition. Online platforms must not sell below cost or disrupt market competition.

European bourses are mixed. The FTSE 100 (-0.6%) is under pressure, hit by losses across underlying commodity prices whilst the DAX 40 (+0.6%) posts gains by around half a percent. European sectors hold a very slight negative bias. Utilities holds towards the top of the pile, joined closely by Construction & Materials, and Real Estate. To the downside, Energy is the laggard, in-fitting with pressure seen across crude benchmarks whilst Luxury downside weighs on Consumer Products & Services.

Top European News

• Italian PM Meloni plans overhaul of Italy's voting system to aid re-election bid, according to FT.

FX

• DXY is flat intraday but resides in a current 98.497-98.690 parameter as traders await key US labour market data due ahead of Friday's official employment situation report; ADP's gauge of nonfarm employment is expected to print 49K in December vs -32K in November. JOLTS job openings are expected to fall to 7.61mln in November (prev. 7.67mln in October); in the October report, the quits rate fell to 1.8% from 2.0%, while the vacancy rate was unchanged at 4.6%. Elsewhere, the ISM Services PMI is seen inching down a little in December. Currently, the index is well within Monday’s 98.25-98.86 range, and on either side of its 100 DMA (98.59).
• EUR/USD was initially pressured, continuing the downside seen in the prior session. Though the downside did reverse following the EZ HICP release, which printed in-line with expectations, seemingly as bets for a cooler-than-expected print following the German series unwind. Currently just shy of the 1.1700 mark, after making a peak of 1.1702 overnight.
• AUD/USD is choppy following overnight outperformance given softer-than-expected monthly inflation, but as the headline figure and the core reading remain sticky and above the RBA’s 2-3% target.
• USD/JPY found resistance at yesterday’s high and remains within that session's 156.30-156.80 parameter. Other G10s are largely uneventful and follow the choppy price action.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0187 vs exp. 6.9896 (Prev. 7.0173).

Fixed Income

• A firmer start for fixed income. Initial gains were a familiar ~ 5 and ~ 20 ticks for USTs and Bunds, respectively.
• During the early European morning, the benchmarks picked up further, to highs of 112-17+ and 128.19, firmer by 7+ and 51 ticks at most, respectively. A move that occurred in relatively limited newsflow, but as the European risk tone soured. A deterioration that extended on the mixed/downbeat APAC performance, as the region failed to sustain record Wall St. levels.
• EZ HICP Flash figures for December printed in-line with expectations (though the core figures were a touch short of expectations). Some pressure was seen in Bunds following the release, as participants unwound bets for a cooler print after the prelim. German inflation series. Also, no move to Construction PMIs this morning or a dire set of German retail data. However, on the latter, the implications have perhaps been limited given the marked upward revision to the prior (October) series.
• Finally for Bunds, around five ticks of pressure were seen following the tepid results for the new 2036 Bund line. Currently trading at 128.20.
• Gilts acknowledged the bullish action in peers and opened higher by 29 ticks at 92.54 before extending to a 91.84 peak and are currently leading the fixed space. Thereafter an above 3x b/c to a 5yr Gilt auction spurred some very modest upside in Gilts, taking UK paper above the 92.00 mark.
• UK sold GBP 4.25bln 4.125% 2031 Gilt; b/c 3.50x (prev. 3.23x), average yield 3.980% (prev. 4.093%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.2bps).
• Germany sells EUR 4.542bln vs exp. EUR 6bln 2036 Bund; b/c 1.29x, average yield 2.83%, retention 24.3%

Commodities

• WTI and Brent futures fell after Washington moved to tighten control over Venezuela’s oil industry, with President Trump saying Venezuela would hand over up to 30-50mln bbls of crude to the US to be sold at market prices, with proceeds managed by the President for the benefit of both countries. Nat Gas on the other hand rebounds following yesterday's slump cited by some to a warmer-than-expected winter.
• Gold eased as focus shifted away from geopolitical risk toward upcoming US data releases, with bullion finding resistance at USD 4,500/oz and now trading near the bottom end of a USD 4,441.44-4,500/oz after a more than 4% rally across the prior three sessions. Meanwhile, Chinese gold reserves data this morning showed rising reserves for a 14th consecutive month. Spot silver fell back under USD 80/oz after peaking at USD 82.77/oz earlier.
• 3M LME copper prices are choppy but holding above the USD 13k/t mark and not far off record highs, with Friday also in focus amid a potential SCOTUS ruling on the Trump tariffs.
• Chevron (CVX) , ConocoPhillips (COP) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) will meet with US President Trump on Friday, according to WSJ.
• US President Trump posted "I am pleased to announce that the Interim Authorities in Venezuela will be turning over between 30 and 50 MILLION Barrels of High Quality, Sanctioned Oil, to the United States of America". Full post "I am pleased to announce that the Interim Authorities in Venezuela will be turning over between 30 and 50 MILLION Barrels of High Quality, Sanctioned Oil, to the United States of America. This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States! I have asked Energy Secretary Chris Wright to execute this plan, immediately. It will be taken by storage ships, and brought directly to unloading docks in the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter!".
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.8mln (exp. +0.5mln), Distillate +4.9mln (exp. +2.1mln), Gasoline +4.4mln (exp. +3.2mln), Cushing +0.7mln.
• Several oil storage tanks are on fire in Russia's Belgorod region after a Ukrainian drone attack, according to the regional governor.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian drone hits apartment building in Tver, Russia, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Russia sends a submarine to escort tanker the US tried to seize off Venezuela, according to WSJ.
• Several oil storage tanks are on fire in Russia's Belgorod region after a Ukrainian drone attack, according to the regional governor.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• "Iran's president called on law enforcement agencies not to attack protesters", Sky News Arabia reported.
• "Iran's army chief: Trump's and Netanyahu's statements on the demonstrations represent a threat to which Tehran will respond", Sky News Arabia reported.
• US President Trump presses Venezuela to dismiss agents from China, Russia, Iran and Cuba, according to Axios.

Geopolitics: Others

• "Iran's president called on law enforcement agencies not to attack protesters", Sky News Arabia reported.
• Yemeni Saudi-backed government forces reportedly advance towards Aden.
• "Iran's army chief: Trump's and Netanyahu's statements on the demonstrations represent a threat to which Tehran will respond", Sky News Arabia reported.
• China's Foreign Ministry accused the US of bullying and using brazen force, in regards to Venezuela.
• Ukrainian drone hits apartment building in Tver, Russia, according to Sky News Arabia.
• South Korea President Lee said China may move structure in the sea between the two countries.
• US President Trump presses Venezuela to dismiss agents from China, Russia, Iran and Cuba, according to Axios.
• China's Taiwan Affairs Office named two people to be punished for Taiwan independence activities, while it stated the people as well as their relatives are banned from entering the mainland, Hong Kong and Macau.
• Russia sends a submarine to escort tanker the US tried to seize off Venezuela, according to WSJ.
• US President Trump's administration warns Venezuela's Interior Minister to cooperate or face potential targeting, according to sources.
• US said military is among 'options' to acquire Greenland and annexation of semi-autonomous territory from Denmark is ‘national security priority’, according to FT.
• US Secretary of State Rubio told lawmakers that US President Trump aims to buy Greenland, and downplayed military action, according to WSJ.

US Event Calendar

• 8:15 am: Dec ADP Employment Change, est. 50k, prior -32k
• 10:00 am: Dec ISM Services Index, est. 52.2, prior 52.6
• 10:00 am: Nov JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7647.5k, prior 7670k
• 10:00 am: Oct Factory Orders, est. -1.19%, prior 0.2%
• 10:00 am: Oct F Durable Goods Orders, est. -2.2%, prior -2.2%
• 10:00 am: Oct F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 10:00 am: Oct F Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.5%
• 10:00 am: Oct F Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.7%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The strong risk rally of 2026 showed no sign of relenting yesterday, as markets continued to shrug off geopolitical developments. That meant both the S&P 500 (+0.62%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.58%) advanced to new record highs. Moreover in Europe, there was also a decent bond rally thanks to some soft inflation numbers, raising hopes that the ECB’s next move might still be a cut rather than a hike, particularly after the final composite PMIs were a bit weaker than expected. So it was a strong day for the most part, whilst Brent crude oil prices (-1.72%) reversed Monday’s rise as fears of disruption to oil flows from Venezuela eased. Oil is down a similar amount again overnight as Trump has announced that 30-50m barrels will be delivered to the US from Venezuela and most Asia equities have finally paused for breath this morning, trading lower.

In terms of the latest in Venezuela itself, there weren’t really any major developments in the last 24 hours. But multiple press outlets reported that the Venezuelan regime was cracking down on dissent as they sought to consolidate their power after Maduro’s removal. So with the regime still in power, it remains unclear exactly how the US would be involved with the country’s administration over the short-to-medium term, although Trump previously said on Sunday that “If they don’t behave, we will do a second strike”. In the meantime, Venezuela’s assets continued to recover yesterday, with the 2027 bond up another +2.22% to 43.5 cents on the dollar. However, several US energy companies which outperformed on Monday began to struggle again, including Chevron (-4.46%), SLB (-0.39%) and Halliburton (-3.41%), despite the broader move higher in US equities.

Those declines for the oil majors came as Brent crude (-1.72%) erased Monday’s +1.65% rise amid headlines suggesting that the US was keen to avoid disruption to Venezuela’s oil exports. Reuters reported that Venezuela was in talks to export oil to the US while Bloomberg reported that Chevron had booked extra tankers to Venezuelan ports this month, so potentially mitigating the decline in oil shipments from the country amid the recent US naval blockade. Indeed, Brent is trading another -1.65% lower this morning after Trump said last night that Venezuela would turn over “between 30 and 50 MILLION barrels” of oil to the US. There wasn't much extra detail but this sort of volume is around 30-50 days of pre-US blockade production so this could be the oil that has been sitting around and probably doesn't mark the start of a trend.  

Whilst investors were focused on Venezuela, there were also fresh headlines on Greenland, as several European leaders issued a statement defending its sovereignty. The group included the leaders of Denmark, Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Poland and Spain, who said that “It is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.” It also said that Arctic security must “be achieved collectively, in conjunction with NATO allies including the United States, by upholding the principles of the UN Charter, including sovereignty, territorial integrity and the inviolability of borders. These are universal principles, and we will not stop defending them.” On the other side of the Atlantic, the White House said in a statement to the press that Trump and his advisers were “discussing a range of options” to acquire Greenland and that use of the military “is always an option”.   

For markets at least, there was no sign that all this news was having a particularly large impact, and the recent strength in European assets showed no sign of relenting. In fact, there was a fresh round of optimism after the latest European inflation numbers were weaker than expected, which dampened fears about a potential hawkish pivot from the ECB this year. That came as the German CPI reading fell to +2.0% on the EU-harmonised measure (vs. +2.2% expected), whilst the French reading was in line with expectations at +0.7%. So that cemented expectations that the Euro Area-wide print today might come in on the softer side.  

Those inflation prints and the prospect of a more dovish ECB helped to bring down yields across Europe, with those on 10yr bunds (-2.8bps), OATs (-1.9bps) and BTPs (-3.5bps) all moving lower. Moreover, that trend got further momentum after the final PMI readings were on the weaker side, with the final composite PMI for the Euro Area revised down four-tenths from the flash print to 51.5. That backdrop helped to support equities too, with the STOXX 600 (+0.58%), the FTSE 100 (+1.18%) and the DAX (+0.09%) all at record highs.   

Over in the US, the equity rally also proceeded, with the S&P 500 (+0.62%) exceeding the record high it posted on Christmas Eve. Interestingly, that came in spite of ongoing weakness among the tech mega caps, with the Mag 7 (-0.36%) dragging on the broader index. There were mixed moves within the Mag-7 amid headlines from the CES trade show, with Tesla (-4.14%) leading on the downside after Nvidia (-0.47%) announced plans for a self-driving AI the previous evening. But US equities saw broad gains otherwise, with three-quarters of the S&P 500 constituents higher on the day, while the small cap Russell 2000 (+1.37%) extended its YTD gain to +4.07%. An impressive performance with just three trading days behind us.
In the meantime, US Treasuries lost ground, unlike their counterparts in Europe, with the 2yr yield (+1.2bps) up to 3.46%, whilst the 10yr yield (+1.2bps) reached 4.17%. We did hear from a few Fed speakers as well, although there wasn’t much that shone light on the future policy path. For instance, Governor Miran said “I think that well over 100 basis points of cuts are going to be justified this year.” But that was in line with his previous dovishness, so markets weren’t reactive. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Barkin said that “policy will require finely tuned judgments balancing progress on each side of our mandate”, and that it was “a delicate balance”.  

The very strong rally in Asian equities so far this year has slightly reversed this morning with the Nikkei (-0.96%) and Hang Seng (-1.21%) leading the losses. The KOSPI (-0.21%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.08%) are also lower but with the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.15%) just about defying the regional trend, following a slowdown in Australia’s core inflation in November, which supports the argument for the RBA to maintain current interest rates (details below). S&P 500 (-0.04%) and Nasdaq futures (-0.12%) are trading just below the flat line.

Returning to Australia, CPI increased by +3.4% y/y in November, down from +3.8% in October and below market expectations of +3.7%. On a m/m basis, the headline CPI remained unchanged at 0.0%. The trimmed mean CPI, which is the RBA’s preferred measure of inflation, slowed to 3.2% y/y from +3.3%, aligning broadly with expectations. On a monthly basis, trimmed mean inflation rose by +0.3%, remaining consistent with October's figures. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar (+0.33%) continues its winning streak for the fourth consecutive session, trading at 0.6760 against the US dollar, despite the easing of inflation in Australia during November. Additionally, yields on Australia’s 10-year government bonds are -2.9bps lower, currently trading at 4.76% as I write this.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the Euro Area flash CPI print for December, German unemployment for December, whilst in the US there’s the ISM services index for December, JOLTS job openings for November, and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for December. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bowman and the ECB’s Pereira.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 08:24

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 41,000 Jobs in December; Annual Pay was Up 4.4%

“Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
emphasis added

This was below the consensus forecast of 50,000 jobs added. The BLS will report on Friday, and the consensus is for 55,000 jobs added.

MSCI Will Not Exclude Bitcoin Treasury Companies Like Michael Saylor's Strategy From Global Indexes

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

In a major development for Bitcoin-focused corporations and the broader digital asset ecosystem, global index provider MSCI has concluded its review of digital asset treasury companies (DATCOs) and decided against excluding them from its flagship indexes.

MSCI said the current treatment of affected companies will remain unchanged for now, meaning DATCOs already included in MSCI indexes will stay included as long as they continue to meet existing eligibility requirements. 

The index provider acknowledged feedback from institutional investors expressing concern that some digital asset treasury companies resemble investment funds, which are typically excluded from its indexes. 

At the same time, MSCI said distinguishing between investment-oriented entities and operating companies that hold digital assets as part of their core business requires further research and market input. 

As a result, MSCI said it plans to launch a broader consultation on the treatment of non-operating companies, while deferring any exclusions, additions, or size-related changes for DATCOs in the interim, according to the company announcement. 

The move reverses fears that have swirled in financial and crypto markets for months that firms — like Strategy — holding a majority of their assets in Bitcoin and other digital assets could be stripped from widely tracked global equity benchmarks like the MSCI All Country World and Emerging Markets indexes.

The proposal, first announced by MSCI late last year, would have effectively classified DATCOs — public companies with greater than 50 % of assets in digital assets — as fund-like entities rather than operating companies, and thus ineligible for inclusion in its core indices. 

That framework had ignited fierce criticism from industry players and advocates.

Strategy and bitcoin industry pushback against MSCI

Strategy - the largest publicly traded Bitcoin treasury company - and other DATCOs had been at the center of the debate. 

Strategy formally urged MSCI to scrap the proposal, arguing that excluding firms based on asset composition alone would be “misguided,” “arbitrary,” and could destabilize index neutrality. 

In an open letter to the MSCI Equity Index Committee, Strategy stressed that DATCOs are operating companies, not passive funds, and should not be judged solely on balance sheet Bitcoin holdings.

Industry coalitions such as Bitcoin For Corporations also mobilized support, framing the move as discriminatory and warning that exclusion could trigger billions in passive outflows and broader market dislocations.

Analysts had projected potential capital flight of up to $2.8 billion from Strategy alone if MSCI followed through with exclusion, with broader estimates of forced selloffs across crypto treasuries ranging much higher. 

The decision ends that uncertainty. It preserves the status of DATCOs within MSCI’s suite of indexes and avoids triggering index-linked passive selling that had loomed as a structural market risk.

Market reaction was swift: shares of digital asset heavyweights including Strategy saw immediate relief buying.

Shares of MSTR jumped over 7% after the news broke in after hours trading. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 08:05

From the MBA: MMortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 9.7 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 2, 2026. The results include an adjustment for the holidays.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 9.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from two weeks earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 28 percent compared with two weeks ago. The holiday adjusted Refinance Index decreased 14 percent from two weeks ago and was 133 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The unadjusted Refinance Index decreased 31 percent from two weeks ago and was 108 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent from two weeks earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 23 percent compared with two weeks ago and was 10 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates started the New Year with a decline to 6.25 percent, the lowest level since September 2024. Refinance applications were up 7 percent for the week but were at a slower pace than in the weeks leading up to the holidays,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “FHA refinance applications saw a 19 percent increase, although that was a partial rebound from a drop the week before. MBA continues to expect mortgage rates to stay around current levels, with spells of refinance opportunities in the weeks when rates move lower.”

Added Kan, “Purchase applications were 10 percent higher than the same week a year ago but were down over the week following decreases in conventional and FHA applications. The average loan size was $408,700, the smallest in a year, driven by lower average loan sizes across both conventional and government loan types.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.25 percent from 6.32 percent, with points decreasing to 0.57 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 10% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but solidly above the lows of 2023 and above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined, but is down from the recent peak in September as rates moved sideways.

Perhaps We Should Actually Be Focusing On Fixing America

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

After years of heading in the wrong direction, nobody can deny that the United States is facing overwhelming problems. So why don’t we focus on fixing those problems first? The truth is that we can’t do everything because our resources are very limited. U.S. households are more than 18 trillion dollars in debt, and the federal government is more than 38 trillion dollars in debt.

Even though we have literally stolen trillions upon trillions of dollars from future generations, our major cities are rapidly decaying, our infrastructure is crumbling, corruption is rampant, the middle class is shrinking, most of the population is struggling to even afford the basics each month, mass layoffs are happening all over the nation, our streets are teeming with hordes of drug addicts and homeless people, large numbers of Americans are selling images of themselves online just to make ends meet, and millions of others are living in their vehicles.

So why don’t we use what limited resources we have to fix our own problems?

If you don’t understand the point that I am trying to make, just go take a stroll through downtown Seattle.

The new mayor has decided that it will be her policy to allow people to openly do drugs in the streets…

Seattle’s new ultra-woke mayor has triggered chaos by ordering police not to arrest people doing drugs on the streets of the city plagued by crime and homelessness.

Democratic socialist Katie Wilson, 43, was sworn in as the city’s 58th mayor on Friday.

The progressive politician who co-founded the Transit Riders Union has already taken steps that concerned residents and law enforcement officials say will destroy Seattle.

The president of the Seattle Police Officers Guild, Mike Solan, is warning that this will make the lawlessness in the streets of Seattle even worse…

‘We’ve all seen how our streets can be filled with death, decay, blight and crime when ideology like this infects our city, Solan continued in his statement.

‘Now with this resurrected insane direction, death, destruction and more human suffering will be supercharged.’

Lawmakers and residents have reacted to this news in horror, as the city already has a raging homelessness epidemic that they believe this lax drug policy will only amplify.

Once upon a time, Seattle was one of the most beautiful cities on the entire planet.

So what in the world happened?

Of course it isn’t just Seattle that has been transformed into a crime-ridden, drug-infested hellhole.

All over the nation, chaos reigns in the streets of major American cities.

In fact, last night a “hammer-wielding maniac” destroyed a bunch of windows at the Cincinnati home of Vice President J.D. Vance…

A hammer-wielding maniac who smashed four windows at JD Vance’s Cincinnati home has been arrested by the Secret Service after an overnight break-in.

William DeFoor, 26, was charged early Monday morning with one count each of obstructing official business, criminal damaging or endangering, criminal trespass and vandalism.

Secret Service agents heard a loud noise at the home around midnight and spotted DeFoor running from the home, which is the secondary residence for Vance, his wife Usha and their three young children, who were out of town at the time.

Meanwhile, lawlessness also continues to run rampant in high places all over the country.

So what is being done about it?

After all this time, how many corrupt members of past administrations have been arrested and put in prison?

After all this time, how many corrupt corporate executives have been arrested and put in prison?

After all this time, how many of Jeffrey Epstein’s associates that also sexually abused young girls have been arrested and put in prison?

How can we tell the rest of the world how they should be doing things when we can’t even get our own house in order?

We have been getting hit by crisis after crisis, and economic conditions are steadily deteriorating.

In fact, we just learned that U.S. manufacturing activity has contracted for a 10th consecutive month…

US manufacturing activity contracted for a 10th straight month in December, a survey indicated Monday, pointing to a continued drag in sentiment from tariffs and trade policy uncertainty.

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index fell to 47.9 from November’s 48.2 reading, the lowest of 2025 despite modest improvements in employment and some other categories.

Our artificially-inflated stock market continues to hover near record highs, but at the same time the number of large corporations that are going bankrupt just continues to rise…

Between January and November 2025, at least 717 companies filed for Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy, according to data from S&P reviewed by The Washington Post.

That marks a 14% jump compared to the same period in 2024, and the most filings seen since 2010, the tail end of the Great Recession.

According to the Daily Mail, we are also seeing a very alarming surge in bankruptcies among small businesses too…

A frightening recession indicator is flashing red — and Americans can see it all over Main Street.

Experts told the Daily Mail that a sudden surge in bankruptcies and store closures — hitting mom-and-pop shops, small restaurants, and local retailers — could be an early warning sign that the economy is starting to crack.

One expert that was interviewed by the Daily Mail is warning that this surge in bankruptcies is a clear indication that a recession is coming…

‘The little guys are going to start falling first,’ Joe Barsalona, a Delaware-based bankruptcy lawyer at Pashman Stein Walder Hayden, said.

‘A recession is coming. I agree with economists that the increase in small business bankruptcies is a canary in a coal mine.’

Of course many would argue that a recession is already here.

In recent months, I have written a lot about the mass layoffs that have been occurring all over the country.

Well, now Newsweek is reporting that over 100 companies have filed WARN notices for mass layoffs that will be taking place in January…

More than 100 companies have filed WARN notices indicating plans to lay off workers in January 2026, according to WARNTracker.com. The following companies have filed a notice.

I tried to warn my readers that a tsunami of layoffs was coming.

Now it is here.

The following is the full list of 119 companies that have filed WARN notices for this month…

• AARP
• AbbVie
• Adams County Public Hospital
• AeroFarms1526 Cane Creek
• Amazon
• Amentum
• American Signature, Inc.
• Apogee Architectural Metals
• Archer Daniels Midland Company
• Atkore Plastics Southeast
• Augusta Sportswear, Inc.
• Bechtel National Inc.
• Best Dressed Chicken, Inc.
• Blue Plate Oysterette LLC
• Blue Shield of California
• Bond 45 National Harbor Restaurant
• Braga Fresh Foods, LLC
• Building Materials Manufacturing LLC
• BWW Law Group, LLC
• Catalent, Maryland, Inc.
• Charles River Laboratories
• Clari Inc.
• CNO Financial Group
• Colonial Savings, F.A.
• ColWyo Coal Company LP
• CommUnify
• Consolidated Hospitality Supplies
• Corteva
• CoStar Group
• Couchbase, Inc.
• CRST Expedited, Inc.
• Dental Benefit Management, Inc.
• Dillard’s Inc.
• Dometic Corporation
• DRT, LLC
• DSV Air & Sea Inc.
• enDevelopment Logistics, LLC
• FedEx
• FreshRealm
• Fresno Economic Opportunities Commission
• Galleher LLC
• General Motors
• Giesecke + Devrient ePayments America Inc
• Gilead Sciences
• Grand Lux Café, LLC
• Great Floors
• H&M Fashion USA, Inc.
• HD Supply
• Heibar Installations Inc.
• Henkel Corporation
• HRL Laboratories
• Hudson
• Huntington National Bank
• Illumina
• ImmunityBio
• Inline Plastics
• Institute of International Education
• International Paper
• Invincible Boat Company
• Kloeckner Meals
• Lakeshore Learning Materials, LLC
• Louis Vuitton USA Inc.
• Lumileds
• Maritime Applied Physics Corporation
• Marshalls of CA, LLC
• Mattel
• McDonald’s
• MDWise
• Meteorcomm LLC
• Mettler-Toledo Rainin, LLC
• Michigan Sugar Company
• Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey
• Nationstar Mortgage, LLC
• NIKE Retail Services, Inc.
• Nordstrom Portland Rack
• Ojai Valley Inn
• Palo Verde Hospital
• Panasonic Well LLC
• Peraton’s Environmental Integration Services III
• Post Consumer Brands, LLC
• Presbyterian Home for Central New York, Inc.
• Providence Health & Services
• Rad Power Bikes, Inc.
• RATP Dev and Midtown Group
• Raytheon Technologies
• Rebel Restaurants, Inc.
• Red Run Corporation T/A Food Depot
• Regional Medical Center of Central Alabama
• Retail Services WIS Corporation
• Revity, Inc.
• Roads Express, LLC
• Saddle Creek Logistics Service
• SC Industrial Holdings, LLC
• SDH Education West, LLC
• SDH Service East, LLC
• Shell Recharge Solutions
• SLO Brewing Co. LLC
• Smokin Bear LLC
• Smurfit Westrock
• Sodexo
• Spirit Airlines, LLC.
• Synopsys, Inc.
• Takeda Development Center Americas Inc.
• Terzo Enterprises Incorporated
• The Cheesecake Factory
• The French Gourmet, Inc.
• The Taubman Company
• TJX Companies, Inc.
• TransAlta
• United Supermarkets
• Van Law Food Products, Inc.
• Verizon
• Virginia Mason Franciscan
• Warner Music Group
• Wells Fargo
• West Fraser, Inc.
• White Coffee Corporation
• WIS International
• WWL Vehicle Services America, Inc.

That is quite a long list, isn’t it?

The American people are not stupid.

They can see what is happening, and one recent survey found that 52 percent of U.S. adults actually believe that a recession has already started…

According to the ARG data, 52% of Americans believe the economy is already in a recession, and 64% say it’s getting worse.

These numbers suggest that many Americans are feeling the squeeze, even if official metrics don’t yet reflect a recession.

Only 11% think the economy is improving. Just 22% rate it as excellent, very good, or good, while 73% call it bad, very bad, or terrible, showing a clear gap between public sentiment and political narratives about economic strength.

Looking ahead, 60% believe the national economy will be worse a year from now, and just 16% say it will be better.

Yes, things are certainly bad now.

But they are not even worth comparing to what is further down the road.

So why don’t we use our limited resources to address the historic challenges that we are facing in our own nation?

If we love this country, we should try to fix it.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 23:25

Chevron Contracts 11 Tankers For Venezuela Port Calls As Don-Roe Doctrine Begins

Chevron stands out as the clear winner among U.S. oil majors, given its unique positioning already in Venezuela. The company already produces a quarter of the country's oil output under a U.S. sanctions waiver and exports crude, giving it an operational and regulatory moat no other oil major can match.

With the Monroe Doctrine effectively rebranded as the "Don-Roe Doctrine," reflecting the Trump administration's new approach to exerting control and influence across the Western Hemisphere and rooting out China and Russia, the developments this past weekend involving U.S. Delta Force operators capturing Maduro do not come as much of a surprise.

Consistent with the Don-Roe Doctrine, Chevron has contracted a fleet of tankers scheduled to arrive in Venezuela later this month, reinforcing its role as the dominant player, for now, a critical conduit for Venezuelan crude into US refineries along the Gulf of America.

Key highlights from the Bloomberg report that first pointed out Chevron's 11 tankers headed to Venezuela:

• Number of Chevron-chartered ships is the highest since October and up from nine in December, with arrivals planned at the Jose and Bajo Grande ports.

• Of the 11 Chevron vessels, one has already loaded crude and two are currently docked; the oil is bound for U.S. refiners including Valero Energy, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum.

• Chevron operates under a U.S. Treasury license and remains the only Western firm permitted to produce and export Venezuelan crude under U.S. sanctions.

On Monday, shares of Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and ExxonMobil jumped on news of regime change in Venezuela. However, Chevron shares had given up most of those gains by late trading on Tuesday.

Here's more color on the Venezuelan crude industry from UBS and Goldman:

UBS analyst Henri Patricot

US captures Venezuelan leader, references oil investments, higher exports The US government announced on Saturday the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro following a military operation in Caracas (link). US President Donald Trump said that the U.S. "will oversee Venezuela until a safe transition to a legitimate replacement" and oil was mentioned several times. He said in a press conference that US oil companies would "go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, oil infrastructure" and that it would be "selling oil, probably in much larger doses" (link).

Could drive faster production rebound near-term if sanctions are lifted We see this weekend's developments as slightly negative for the oil price in the near-term. While the US President said that the US embargo on Venezuelan oil remains in full effect, the events likely reduce risk of a further sustained drop in Venezuelan production and there is potential for a sharper rebound in our view. This could be partially offset by a higher geopolitical risk premium. Venezuela has been producing ~0.9Mb/d in 2025, <1% of global supply. Latest reports suggest that production dropped ~150kb/d m/m in December because of US sanctions (link), from ~850kb/d in November (IEA). It had reached 1Mb/d as recently as October 2025 (see Figure 1) and the US strikes reportedly did not impact oil infrastructure (link). Hence, we believe production could return to 1Mb/d fairly quickly, if US restrictions are lifted, a small upside of 150kb/d vs. our 850kb/d base case for 2026. There may be potential to push it slightly further to 1.2-1.3Mb/d. This would be an additional headwind for the oil market in 2026, but would not completely change the picture (1.9Mb/d surplus is our base case).

Greater long-term potential but that requires material investments, stability There would be a greater impact if production returns to the level of 2.5Mb/d from 10 years ago but this would take time and require many things to go right. Unlike for Iran, Venezuela's oil infrastructure has indeed been impacted by years of underinvestment. As we discussed in our expert call on Venezuela back in 2022, raising production by ~0.5Mb/d could be done relatively quickly but getting back to 2.5Mb/d could take as much as 10 years. It would require major investments and for companies to do so, this would require political stability, which remains uncertain at this stage. Precedents of US-led or US-supported regime changes in oil-producing countries show how challenging this can be (see Figure 2). Iraq managed to grow production but we note this was during a different period for oil demand growth, $60 Brent doesn’t support significant growth investment and the US producer landscape and business model are significantly different. Meanwhile Libya has yet to return to pre-2011 production levels...OPEC+ partners maintain policy at monthly meeting, as expected Separately, the eight OPEC+ countries carrying out the voluntary cuts confirmed on Sunday their plans to pause production increments in February and March 2026 due to seasonality (link). This was in line with OPEC+ delegates' comments (link) and expectations, and so neutral for oil in our view. The statement is similar to the previous one and made no reference to Venezuela. The eight countries will next meet on 1 February but we believe the next important meeting is more likely to be the one in early March, when the group should decide whether or not to raise production in April. Our base case is that they will return to production increases, so as to fully unwind the cuts by year-end, in time to agree on a new framework for the whole group. The alternative would be for the pause to go on, more likely if we see signs of Venezuelan production rebounding, Russia continuing to produce below target and/or prices moving lower.

Goldman analysts led by Daan Struyven

• Following the US deposing of President Maduro, we assess the risks to our unchanged oil price forecast (Brent/WTI 2026 averages of $56/52) from Venezuela.

• We see ambiguous but modest risks to oil prices in the short-run from Venezuela depending on how US sanctions policy evolves. We estimate 2026 Brent averages of $58/54 in scenarios where Venezuela crude production declines/rises by 0.4mb/d by end-2026 (vs. our $56 baseline which assumes flat production of 0.9mb/d).

• Along with recent Russia and US production beats, potentially higher long-run Venezuela production further increases the downside risks to our oil price forecast for 2027 and beyond. Although Venezuela produced ~3mb/d at its peak in the mid-2000s and holds ~1/5 of global proven oil reserves, any recovery in production would likely be gradual and require substantial investment. We estimate $4/bbl of downside to 2030 oil prices in a scenario where Venezuela crude production rises to 2mb/d in 2030 (vs. our 0.9mb/d base case).

About 20% of all global oil tankers are used to smuggle crude oil from countries under international sanctions, with 10% of these ships carrying Venezuelan oil. With Maduro out and the U.S. taking control of the Western Hemisphere, we suspect the dark fleet tanker industry will be dramatically hit - bad news for China's "teapot" refineries.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 23:00

Israeli FM Travels To Somaliland In First, Unprecedented Visit Since Recognition

Via The Cradle

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar visited the Republic of Somaliland on Tuesday and is meeting the breakaway state's president, according to multiple media reports. Reuters cited sources as saying that Saar is currently in Somaliland and will meet the president of the state, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, in the capital Hargeisa.

Somaliland media reports also confirmed the Israeli foreign minister’s visit. The Israeli Foreign Ministry did not respond to requests for comment. According to Somaliland’s Information Ministry, Saar was received by senior Somaliland officials at the airport.  Last month, Israel became the first state to formally recognize Somaliland, which broke away from Somalia in 1991 but had never been recognized by any UN member state.

Israeli Foreign Ministry/Anadolu Agency

Somali officials and several Arab, Islamic, and African states have condemned the Israeli move – which was rejected by most members of the UN Security Council at an emergency meeting in New York.

The Israeli government has been aiming for Somaliland to serve as a potential destination for Palestinians that Tel Aviv aims to forcibly displace from Gaza, according to multiple reports over the past year.

After US President Donald Trump announced plans to expel the strip's population and transform Gaza into a “Riviera,” talks to relocate large numbers of Palestinians reportedly began with several African states, including Somaliland and Morocco. Trump walked back his comments earlier this year, but efforts to expel Palestinians have continued.

Somalia’s president said in a recent interview that Israel has demanded from Somaliland, as part of its terms, that the breakaway state receive displaced Palestinians from Gaza and allow the establishment of Israeli military sites. He added that intelligence confirms Somaliland accepted these terms.

"The Government of the Republic of Somaliland firmly rejects false claims made by the president of Somalia alleging the resettlement of Palestinians or the establishment of military bases in Somaliland," Somaliland's Foreign Ministry said in a statement in response.

"Somaliland's engagement with the State of Israel is purely diplomatic, conducted in full respect of international law and the mutual sovereign interests of both countries," it added. 

Ummmm...

Recognizing Somaliland isn’t charity — it’s strategy. It aligns with America’s security interests and the “America First” doctrine by strengthening an ally that shares our values in a region vital to global trade and counterterrorism.@thehillhttps://t.co/gfgyShpL6B

— Senator Ted Cruz (@SenTedCruz) January 5, 2026

The Foreign Ministry went on to say that the "baseless allegations are intended to mislead the international community and undermine Somaliland’s diplomatic progress," adding that "Somaliland remains committed to regional stability, and peaceful international cooperation."

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 22:35

At CES, A Chinese Two-Legged Vacuum Signals The Next Phase Of Home Robotics

At CES in Las Vegas, where robotics is a dominant theme this year, Roborock introduced a striking new home robot meant to persuade consumers that household automation is ready for everyday life, according to Bloomberg.

The Chinese company — formally called Beijing Roborock Technology Co. — revealed the Saros Rover, a robotic vacuum concept equipped with two independent wheel-legs that allow it to climb stairs and traverse uneven terrain. According to the firm, it is “the first robot vacuum cleaner with two wheel-legs.” The device uses artificial intelligence, motion sensors, and 3D spatial mapping, and in a media demonstration it climbed stairs, descended a ramp, and performed a small jump, which a company spokesperson said could help it handle obstacles.

Bloomberg writes that the Rover replaces last year’s headline-grabbing Saros Z70, which featured a mechanical arm capable of picking up objects such as socks. While that model drew crowds at CES, it later disappointed reviewers when it launched for $2,599 in the U.S., partly because it recognized only a limited range of items. Learning from that experience, Roborock is now taking a more cautious approach: the Rover does not yet have a confirmed release date.

Like its predecessor, the new robot moves slowly when operating on its legs, and the company declined to disclose battery performance. During the presentation, it also remained unclear how well the Rover can recover from a fall, though the spokesperson said that in such cases the robot will attempt to right itself without human help.

Robotics’ growing presence at CES has become so prominent that the event’s organizer, the Consumer Technology Association, created a dedicated exhibition area for the category. Alongside home devices like Roborock’s, companies are showcasing humanoid robots that claim to handle complex tasks such as folding laundry. Still, widespread consumer adoption faces major hurdles, including high costs, limited battery life, and the need for more reliable mobility.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 22:10

Your Cholesterol May Look Normal... But This Hidden Particle Could Still Be Raising Your Heart Risk

Authored by Brendon Fallon & Lynn Xu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

For decades, cholesterol screening has focused on a familiar set of numbers—LDL (“bad” cholesterol), HDL (“good” cholesterol), and triglycerides. When these values fall within the “normal” range, many people are reassured that their heart risk is low.

An LDL particle with its apo-B protein (blue). Apo-B particle count may offer a more accurate indication of atherosclerotic risk.JUAN GAERTNER/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY/Getty Images

However, according to leading preventive cardiologist Dr. Seth J. Baum, that reassurance can sometimes be misleading.

In a recent episode of “Vital Signs,” Baum explained that a largely inherited cholesterol-related particle—lipoprotein(a), or Lp(a)—can quietly raise the risk of heart attack, stroke, and aortic valve disease, even in people whose standard cholesterol tests look perfectly fine.

“Lp(a) explains a lot of heart disease we used to call bad luck,” Baum said. “It’s not bad luck—it’s biology we weren’t measuring.”

What Is Lipoprotein(a)?

Lipoprotein(a) is structurally similar to LDL cholesterol, but with an added protein called apolipoprotein(a). This extra component makes the particle particularly harmful because it promotes plaque buildup, inflammation, and abnormal clot formation within blood vessels.

Unlike LDL cholesterol—which is strongly influenced by diet, exercise, and medications—Lp(a) levels are determined primarily by genetics. They remain relatively stable throughout life and are largely unaffected by lifestyle changes.

Because of this, Baum and other preventive cardiologists often refer to Lp(a) as “genetic cholesterol.” It is inherited, invisible on routine lipid panels, and easily overlooked—yet clinically powerful.

How Common Is High Lp(a)?

Elevated Lp(a) is not rare. Large population studies and expert consensus estimate that more than 20 percent of people worldwide—roughly one in five adults—have Lp(a) levels high enough to increase cardiovascular risk. In the United States, this translates to approximately 64 million adults.

That prevalence rivals or exceeds that of many conditions routinely screened for in primary care. Yet most Americans have never had their Lp(a) measured.

Baum said that this gap in testing helps explain why some people develop heart disease at young ages or despite healthy lifestyles.

“I see patients who’ve been told for years their cholesterol is fine,” he said. “Then they have a heart attack at 45. When we finally check Lp(a), the story suddenly makes sense.”

Normal Cholesterol Doesn’t Always Mean Low Risk

One of Baum’s central messages is that cholesterol numbers must be interpreted in context, not in isolation.

Lp(a) acts as a risk amplifier. When it is elevated, other risk factors—such as mildly high LDL, borderline blood pressure, insulin resistance, or smoking—become more dangerous in combination. The artery is not only accumulating plaque faster, but plaque is also more inflamed and more prone to forming clots. Two people with identical LDL levels may have very different outcomes, depending on their Lp(a) levels.

This helps explain why traditional risk calculators sometimes fail, particularly in people with heart attacks or strokes at unusually young ages, strong family histories of cardiovascular disease, or heart disease that seems disproportionate to lifestyle.

In Baum’s view, overlooking Lp(a) in these situations represents a major blind spot in prevention.

The Test Most People Never Get–But Probably Should

Because Lp(a) rarely changes over time, testing is usually only needed once. The result can meaningfully alter how clinicians assess risk and guide prevention—even before Lp(a)-specific drugs become widely available.

Lp(a) results may be reported in different units, but many experts consider levels greater than or equal to 50 mg/dL (or approximately 100 to 125 nmol/L, depending on the assay) to be clinically significant.

Importantly, high Lp(a) is not a diagnosis. It does not mean a heart attack is inevitable. Rather, it signals that cardiovascular prevention should be more proactive and individualized. “Lp(a) doesn’t act alone—it stacks on top of everything else,” Baum said.

He describes Lp(a) as a “triple threat” because it promotes plaque formation, enhances blood clotting, and intensifies vascular inflammation. “Inflammation is clearly involved in plaque progression and heart attacks,” he noted, explaining why Lp(a) carries risk beyond LDL alone.

Despite this, Baum estimates that only about 1 percent of the population has ever been tested for Lp(a). “The reason most doctors cite for not testing is that we don’t yet have an approved therapy to lower it,” he said. “But that’s not a good reason not to know the risk.”

Plaque builds silently over decades. “In the vast majority of patients with high cholesterol or Lp(a), you don’t see anything on physical exam,” he said. “You usually don’t see anything until there’s a heart attack or stroke.”

A Practical Prevention Plan

A common misconception is that high Lp(a) leaves patients powerless. Baum strongly disagrees. “You can’t change your genes, but you can absolutely change how aggressively you manage everything else.”

Lower LDL More Than Average

When Lp(a) is elevated, Baum often targets lower LDL or apoB levels than standard recommendations. Even modest LDL elevations can be more harmful in the presence of high Lp(a), so tolerance for “borderline” values is reduced.

Treat Risk Factors as Additive

Rather than viewing blood pressure, cholesterol, glucose, and lifestyle habits separately, Baum said that they compound one another.

With high Lp(a):

• Mild hypertension matters more
• Smoking carries greater danger
• Poor sleep, inactivity, and metabolic dysfunction become more consequential

This cumulative perspective explains why clinicians may recommend earlier or more intensive intervention—even when no single risk factor appears extreme.

Use Imaging to Clarify Risk

Baum highlighted the value of coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring, a specialized CT scan that detects and measures calcified plaque in the coronary arteries—the arteries that supply blood to the heart muscle.

Unlike blood tests, which estimate risk indirectly, CAC scoring provides direct visual evidence of atherosclerosis. A higher calcium score reflects a greater plaque burden and a higher likelihood of future cardiovascular events.

In people with elevated Lp(a) but otherwise uncertain risk, CAC can help determine whether genetic risk has already translated into physical disease. A positive CAC score suggests that plaque has begun to form, strengthening the case for earlier and more aggressive prevention. A CAC score of zero indicates no detectable calcified plaque at the time of testing and may allow for a more individualized approach, particularly in younger patients.

CAC does not replace blood testing, Baum said, but adds clarity when lab results and clinical history leave risk uncertain—helping tailor prevention to the person, not just the numbers.

Screen Your Family

Because Lp(a) is inherited, Baum strongly encourages cascade screening—testing close relatives once an elevated level is identified. “The youngest person in the family is often the one who shows up first with an event.”

Family-wide screening—including siblings, parents, and children—can improve early detection and prevention.

Advanced Options and Emerging Therapies

For patients with prior cardiovascular events and very high Lp(a), lipoprotein apheresis may be an option in specialized centers.

Lipoprotein apheresis is a blood-filtering procedure that removes atherogenic lipoproteins—particles that promote artery-clogging plaque. These include LDL cholesterol and Lp(a), the structural protein found on particles most responsible for atherosclerosis. It is currently available at about 50 centers in the United States.

“We can literally remove these particles from the blood every two weeks, and hopefully reduce the risk of another event.”

Several Lp(a)-lowering drugs are now in late-stage clinical trials, some showing 80 percent to 90 percent reductions in Lp(a) levels. Baum expects FDA-approved therapies in the coming years, though he cautions that outcome data—not just lab results—will determine their ultimate value.

Baum’s Top 3 Recommendations

After decades of treating patients with both typical and unexplained heart disease, Baum said that effective prevention begins not with fear, but with awareness, engagement, and early action. His top recommendations are practical steps anyone can take to better understand—and reduce—their cardiovascular risk.

1. Be Your Own Advocate

“The most important aspect of cardiovascular prevention is taking it seriously and advocating for yourself.”

That starts with asking questions, understanding your family history, and requesting appropriate testing—especially when something doesn’t add up. Knowing whether Lp(a) or apoB is elevated can reveal risks that routine cholesterol panels miss.

2. Work With a Knowledgeable Physician

Even with a trusted doctor, it’s reasonable to have a proactive conversation about cardiovascular risk. Baum encourages patients to ask about Lp(a) and apoB testing, particularly if there is a family history of early heart disease or unexplained events.

Patients with similar LDL levels may require very different treatment intensity depending on their genetic risk, imaging results, and overall clinical picture.

3. Talk to Your Family

When genetic risk is involved, one test result can help protect an entire family. Because Lp(a) is inherited, identifying it in one person often leads to early detection—and prevention—in siblings, parents, or children.

Lp(a) helps explain why heart disease sometimes strikes people who seem to be doing everything right. It is common, inherited, and invisible on standard tests—but no longer ignorable.

A single blood test can uncover hidden risk and reshape prevention for decades.

“You can’t manage what you don’t measure,” Baum said. “Lp(a) is one of the most important things we’ve been missing.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 21:45

Mapping US Interventions In Latin America

A lot has changed over the past 72 hours.

For Venezuelans, the events will have been particularly momentous. In a rapid attack, U.S. special forces entered the compound of now-deposed Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and abducted both him and his wife, before flying them to the United States. The operation was accompanied by U.S. airstrikes targeting multiple sites in the capital of Caracas, with at least 80 people reportedly killed. Maduro is now in New York and is set to face trial today on drugs and weapons charges.

The capture has prompted a wide range of international reactions, from condemnation in Moscow to support from Argentina, where President Javier Milei is an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump. Among Venezuelans, both inside the country and within the diaspora, responses have been mixed, combining relief and celebration at the fall of Maduro with deep uncertainty over what will follow.

Although the abduction of Maduro was unexpected, the United States’ intervention in Venezuela is hardly the first in the region’s history.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the following chart, several countries in Latin America and the Caribbean have experienced direct U.S. involvement, though to varying degrees.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Among these are Mexico, which was invaded in 1846 during the Mexican-American war following the U.S. annexation of Texas. Panama was invaded in 1989, when Washington sought to depose the country's de facto ruler, General Manuel Noriega. Cuba was invaded and occupied by U.S. forces in 1898, during the Spanish-American War and later became the site of the failed U.S.-backed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961.

Elsewhere, U.S. involvement took different forms.

In Guatemala, the CIA orchestrated Operation PBSuccess in 1954, a covert coup that overthrew the democratically elected President Jacobo Árbenz. In Chile, the United States supported the military coup that deposed President Salvador Allende in 1973.

Other countries experienced more indirect forms of involvement.

During the 1970s, the U.S. supported Operation Condor, a regional campaign of coordinated political repression carried out across Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay with Brazil, Peru and Ecuador joining later.

Many of the areas shown in blue on this map are not sovereign states, but rather territories and dependencies of the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and France.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 21:20

Morgan Stanley Lifts Gold Forecast To $4,800, Citing Fed Cuts And Global Risk

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

Gold prices are poised to climb to fresh record highs by the end of the year, with Morgan Stanley forecasting the bullion at $4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, as falling interest rates, central bank buying, and persistent geopolitical risk continue to drive demand for the traditional safe-haven asset.

In a research note on Jan. 5, the bank said the precious metal’s rally is being underpinned by a combination of macroeconomic and policy shifts, including an expected easing cycle by the U.S. Federal Reserve, a change in leadership at the Federal Reserve, and sustained purchases by central banks and investment funds.

Bullion has already delivered a historic run. Spot gold touched an all-time high of $4,549.71 per ounce on Dec. 26, 2025, and finished the year up 64 percent, marking its strongest annual performance since 1979.

Safe-Haven Demand Reignited

Gold prices jumped again this week after the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by U.S. military forces heightened geopolitical uncertainty across energy and financial markets. Analysts say such flashpoints have revived safe-haven buying at a time when many investors were already positioned defensively.

“The situation around Venezuela has clearly reactivated safe-haven demand, but it comes on top of existing concerns about geopolitics, energy supply, and monetary policy,” said Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals Germany.

Investors typically seek gold during periods of economic and political stress, as the yellow metal tends to perform well in low-interest-rate environments, when the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset declines.

Morgan Stanley said in its note that recent events in Venezuela were likely to reinforce gold’s appeal as a store of value, though it did not cite the developments as a formal input into its $4,800 forecast.

JPMorgan Chase also recently raised its gold price outlook, forecasting the metal at $5,000 an ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026 and $6,000 in the longer term.

“While this rally in gold has not, and will not, be linear, we believe the trends driving this rebasing higher in gold prices are not exhausted,” Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Strategy at JPMorgan, said in a Dec. 18 note, citing continued diversification into gold by central banks and investors, as trade uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical risk fuel safe-haven demand.

Analysts at ING also see more upside for gold. In a Jan. 6 note, the bank said gold purchases by central banks and expectations for further Fed rate cuts are underpinning the precious metal.

Fed Policy, Dollar Outlook Key Drivers

Morgan Stanley’s latest projection represents a sharp upgrade from its prior outlook. In October 2025, the bank lifted its 2026 gold forecast to $4,400 per ounce, citing expectations of U.S. rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and strong institutional inflows.

“Investors are watching gold not just as a hedge against inflation, but as a barometer for everything from central bank policy to geopolitical risk,” Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley’s metals and mining commodity strategist, said in the October note.

“We see further upside in gold, driven by a falling U.S. dollar, strong ETF buying, continued central bank purchases, and a backdrop of uncertainty supporting demand for this safe-haven asset.”

Gold also recently overtook U.S. Treasuries as a share of global central bank reserves for the first time since 1996, with Morgan Stanley characterizing this development as a “powerful signal” that investors are confident in the yellow metal’s long-term value.

Exchange-traded funds backed by physical gold have posted record inflows, signaling interest from both institutional and retail investors.

“Even non-professional buyers, or retail investors, are joining the rush for gold,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in the October note, adding that the demand for gold is further underpinned by expectations for a weaker dollar and a broader shift away from dollar-denominated assets.

The U.S. dollar ended 2025 down around 9 percent, marking its worst performance since 2017.

Silver, Copper Also in Focus

While gold remains Morgan Stanley’s top commodity pick, the bank also highlighted strength across other metals markets.

For silver, analysts said 2025 marked the peak of a structural supply deficit, with China’s new export licence requirements adding to upside risks. Silver surged 147 percent last year, its strongest annual gain on record, driven by a combination of industrial demand, investment inflows, and tight supply.

“Investor appetite remains strong, as silver-backed ETFs continue to attract inflows,” ING analysts said in a recent note, describing the 2026 outlook as “constructive,” underpinned by firm industrial demand from solar panels and battery technologies alongside sustained investment flows.

In base metals, Morgan Stanley said it favors aluminum and copper, both of which face ongoing supply constraints amid rising demand. Aluminum supply remains tight outside Indonesia, while signs of renewed U.S. buying have pushed prices higher.

Copper prices have also surged on the London Metal Exchange, with three-month copper hitting a record $13,387.50 per tonne this week. Morgan Stanley said U.S. import demand and persistent mine disruptions are keeping global markets tight heading into 2026.

Nickel was another standout, gaining 5.8 percent to $17,980 a tonne, its highest level since October 2024. Morgan Stanley said supply disruption risks in Indonesia are supporting prices, though it cautioned that much of the risk may already be priced in.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 20:55

Kim Jong Un Just Oversaw Hypersonic 'Nuclear-Ready' Missile Test, Blasts US As 'Rogue' State 

North Korea announced that it had successfully carried out a test of a hypersonic missile on Sunday - coming within 24 hours following the Trump-ordered US military raid on Caracas to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

According to a statement released by North Korean state media, "A sub-unit under a major firing strike group of the Korean People’s Army conducted a missile launching drill on January 4." The timing is unmistakably meant as a signal and warning to Washington, and to America's staunchest allies in the region.

The statement continued, "The drill was conducted as part of the operational evaluation of the sustainability, effectiveness, and operation of the DPRK’s war deterrent while evaluating the readiness of the hypersonic weapon system, verifying and confirming its capability for fulfilling mission and developing the missile soldiers’ firing capability."

Pyongyang framed it as a nuclear preparedness test, though thankfully there was no actual live test of a nuclear warhead, which hasn't happened in some time.

The missile test was overseen by Kim Jong-un, who said, "To be honest, our such activity is clearly aimed at gradually putting the nuclear war deterrent on a highly developed basis."

Importantly, Kim - who has long headed up a country Washington has dubbed a 'rogue state' - indirectly referenced the fresh US overthrow of Venezuela's Maduro. He stressed: "The reason why it is necessary is exemplified by the recent geopolitical crisis and complicated international events."

Internationally, most countries allied with the US and Europe see Kim as even 'worse' than Maduro - though of course the huge difference in the situation is Kim's possession of nukes. The United States doesn't dare try and start 'invasions' of nuclear-armed powers.

Kim has often reflected in speeches on the lessons of Iraq and Libya - where the US and West overthrew Saddam and Gaddafi. Had they possessed a nuclear capability, he argues, they would have never been removed and killed. Of course, he's right from a strategic point of view - and the leadership of Iran is no doubt nervously taking all this in too.

As for the fresh Venezuela case, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry did make clear the country's stance on the issue, in its statement saying:

"The incident is another example that clearly confirms once again the rogue and brutal nature of the US which the international community has so frequently witnessed for a long time."

"The Foreign Ministry of the DPRK strongly denounces the U.S. hegemony-seeking act committed in Venezuela as the most serious form of encroachment of sovereignty and as a wanton violation of the UN Charter and international laws with respect for sovereignty, non-interference and territorial integrity as their main purpose."

While the pace of North Korean missile tests has slowed of late, this latest follows a series of tests which marked an uptick late last year, including the launch of a long-range strategic cruise missile and testing of a newly developed anti-aircraft system.

Some past war-mongering from the Left, a longtime bipartisan orientation:

September, 2024. Rachel Maddow: Putin, Maduro, Trump, Kim Jong Un, and Xi Jinping are all the same.

Maddow: "They want no one anywhere to think it is possible let alone desirable to throw a strong man out."

Nice call Madcow. pic.twitter.com/IH8hhu0VOF

— MAZE (@mazemoore) January 4, 2026

During the first Trump administration, Kim met the US president on a series of occasions. While historic, it didn't lead to the kind of breakthrough on 'de-nuclearization' that Washington and Seoul were hoping for, and Pyongyang has gone back to being on the extreme defensive.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 20:30