Individual Economists

WTI Holds Rebound Gains As US Fuel Exports Hit Record High, Production Dips, Huge SPR Drain

Zero Hedge -

WTI Holds Rebound Gains As US Fuel Exports Hit Record High, Production Dips, Huge SPR Drain

Oil prices are lower overnight (but dramatically off their lows) amid on-again, off-again optimism of an imminent US-Iran peace deal.

Benchmark Brent fell as much as 12% to $96.75 a barrel in London, while West Texas Intermediate dropped up to 13%. European natural gas plunged as much as 14%.

Oil and gas later pared about half of those losses after Trump said in a Truth Social post on Wednesday that if Iran doesn’t agree, “the bombing starts.”

Overnight we saw huge across the board drawdowns in US energy inventories reported by API (and a huge SPR drain). All eyes on the official data this morning...

API

  • Crude -8.1mm (-2.8mm exp)

  • Cushing -1mm

  • Gasoline -6.1mm

  • Distillates -4.6mm

DOE

  • Crude -2.313mm (-2.8mm exp)

  • Cushing -648k

  • Gasoline -2.504mm

  • Distillates -1.294mm

For the second week in a row, US inventories saw significant declines across the board with products seeing the biggest draws. Crude's drawdown was a modest disappointment (especially after API's big report)...

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, crude stockpiles remain elevated (but are drawing down)...

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps most notably, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is seeing massive drawdowns to support the global loss of supply from Hormuz.

Source: Bloomberg

On the back of that draw, Bloomberg's energy guru, Javier Blas, dropped this stunning chart showing that, on a 7-day moving average, global oil liftings (into tankers) have recovered to their pre-war level due to a surge in liftings in the Americas. Of course, that's helped by massive stock drawdowns / SPR drain, but still...

Additionally, last week saw US crude exports actually decline (after nearing the unprecedented level of 100 million barrels in 7 days). The decline in crude cargoes headed overseas pulled down overall US oil and fuels exports from record high levels also set the week earlier, even as fuel exports rose to the highest weekly level ever.

Source: Bloomberg

The US has sent out at least 1.5 million barrels of diesel a day since the week of April 3.

US crude production continued to trend lower...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI fell dramatically below $100 overnight but amid Trump's 'bombastic' comments and Iranian denials, pries are well off their lows

“The oil price is reacting on shift in sentiment instead of market balances, driven by news of a potential deal between the US and Iran,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Zurich.

“It remains unclear when flow through the strait would resume.”

Still, any breakthrough in peace talks will take much longer to filter through to energy markets.

“When the Strait opens we do believe it will take half a year for oil to get back to normal,” Equinor Chief Financial Officer Torgrim Reitan said on the company’s quarterly earnings conference call.

“For gas, it will take much longer.”

And that's important for the Midterms...

The 4-week moving average for US gasoline implied demand ticked higher week-on-week, but the more volatile weekly data showed a weekly decline and dipped below the 5-year average.

It is too early to tell, but elevated gasoline prices could be finally eating into demand.

Trump has repeatedly claimed prices will come down rapidly once the Strait is reopened - we shall see.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 10:40

UBS Says Transport Stock Rout Is "Overdone" After Amazon News

Zero Hedge -

UBS Says Transport Stock Rout Is "Overdone" After Amazon News

UBS senior analyst Tom Wadewitz, who covers freight transportation, told clients that Amazon's latest push to open its supply chain network to businesses beyond its own marketplace triggered an "overdone" sell-off in transport names, including UPS, FedEx, and C.H. Robinson.

Wadewitz said the risk is not new, noting that Amazon's supply chain service has been around since 2023. He said the pullback has created attractive entry points in select transport stocks, particularly UPS, FedEx, and C.H. Robinson.

"While we view AMZN's strategy of selling transportation services as a negative for transports generally, it is not a new risk and the supply chain service is also not new. We believe the significant sell-off in transport names was overdone," Wadewitz said.

The main risk is in B2B parcel, Wadewitz said, adding that Amazon's growing third-party shipping ambitions could pressure UPS and FedEx over the medium term.

However, he said the threat is not a surprise, since Amazon has been active in parcel delivery for years. He also noted that there is limited near-term risk in international express because Amazon's air fleet is mostly domestic narrow-body aircraft.

The immediate market reaction in transport stocks, including UPS, FedEx, and C.H. Robinson, to Amazon's news was a roughly 10% drop at the start of the week. Some of those losses had been recovered by mid-week.

Wadewitz explained to clients why the "pullback creates attractive entry points for UPS, FDX, and CHRW" ...

We believe the cost reduction and network efficiency initiatives of UPS and FDX support margin improvement and EPS growth on a multi-year basis. While AMZN's focus on growing in transport markets is a risk, we also don't view it as a new risk.

In our view, investors already assume that the addressable domestic parcel market for UPS and FDX is a slow growth market (eg in part due to impact of AMZN).

We view the ~10% pullbacks in UPS and FDX as providing attractive entry points.

With respect to CHRW, we do not expect AMZN's supply chain initiative to have a noticeable impact on the brokerage market which is already a highly competitive market. We expect the combination of an upcycle in truckload pricing and acceleration in labor productivity for CHRW in 2H26 to support attractive EPS growth and support upside for the stock. We would also recommend buying CHRW on the pullback in the stock.

Professional subscribers can read the full transport note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 10:30

Israel Says Preparing For Escalation With Iran, Didn't Know Deal Was Close: 'Series Of Targets Ready'

Zero Hedge -

Israel Says Preparing For Escalation With Iran, Didn't Know Deal Was Close: 'Series Of Targets Ready'

Wednesday saw yet another early morning Axios 'scoop' that within hours of being issued proved premature and too out front, given talk of Iran and the US being 'close' to a deal was quickly denied by Tehran and even President Trump quickly acknowledged it's "too soon" to plan peace talks with Iran.

But the headline of "US and Iran closing in on one-page memo to end war" was enough to raise alarm bells in Israel, which has insisted that the conflict must end with a nuclear-free Iran.

Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir, via IDF/TOI

"Israel was unaware that US President Donald Trump was close to reaching an agreement with Iran to end the fighting and open the Strait of Hormuz," an Israeli official told Army Radio soon after the optimistic peace deal headlines went international.

"We were preparing for an escalation," the official said. Indeed the last couple weeks of stalled Pakistan-mediated talks have seen several reports out of Israel saying the Netanyahu government is waiting for the 'green light' from Washington to renew the aerial bombing campaign, which took place over prior 38 days as part of Operation Epic Fury.

But as of Tuesday Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that Epic Fury was ending, and that Project Freedom - to open the Strait of Hormuz - is the new focus. But even after that President Trump in the evening announced a 'pause' to allow negotiations to proceed.

So there has been much confusion and contradictory signaling out of Washington to say the least. Tehran has meanwhile made clear its "finger is on the trigger" - but Israel is also saying the same thing.

For example, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir on Wednesday made it known that military has a "series of targets" ready to strike in Iran at the moment the war resumes.

"Cooperation with the United States military and coordination continue at all times, and we are monitoring the situation," he stated during a visit to southern Lebanon, where Israel ground forces are occupying territory.

"In Iran, we have a further series of targets ready for attack. We are on high alert to return to an intense and broad campaign that will allow us to deepen our achievements and further weaken the Iranian regime," Zamir said further.

As for anti-Hezbollah operations, and despite the Lebanon ceasefire officially in effect, the top military general said: "We will seize every opportunity to deepen the blow to Hezbollah and its continued weakening."

None of this bodes well for a lasting ceasefire in Lebanon, also as the broader Iran ceasefire is certainly on shaky ground, given this week's cross-Gulf attacks on UAE out of the Islamic Republic.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 10:15

U.S. Gasoline Tops $4.50 As "Shock & Awe" Level Approaches

Zero Hedge -

U.S. Gasoline Tops $4.50 As "Shock & Awe" Level Approaches

WTI futures plunged more than 11% to the $90-a-barrel level after Axios reported earlier this morning that the U.S. is nearing a preliminary agreement with Iran to end the war. The sharp decline suggests traders are beginning to price in a potential geopolitical de-escalation and the potential reopening of the Hormuz chokepoint.

At the pump, however, the latest AAA data as of Wednesday morning show that the national average for regular 87-octane gasoline has climbed to $4.50 a gallon, the highest level since July 2022.

There will be a lag. Even if the Trump administration and Tehran formalize a deal in the near term, the immediate result will not be a collapse in gas and diesel pump prices, but rather an approaching peak.

Lower crude prices typically take a few weeks to work through wholesale markets, inventories, distribution networks, and retail outlets before meaningful declines in gas and diesel are visible at pump stations to consumers.

During a Monday press conference, Trump said he expects the price of gasoline to drop "substantially" following the end of the US-Iran war.

"I see it going down very substantially when this is over, I think very rapidly too, at levels that you've never seen because there's a lot of energy out there, ships all over the world that are loaded up with it," Trump said.

"They can't do much with it because they got kidnapped by a pretty evil place. But we're taking care of it."

Last week, Trump said pump prices would "come crashing down as soon as this war is over."

GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan warned that the $5-a-gallon threshold is typically the "shock and awe" level that triggers demand destruction.

With the national average for gas already near $4.50 a gallon, and California prices above $6, the political and consumer pressure backdrop for the Trump administration has intensified in recent weeks.

The administration now appears to be pushing hard for a near-term Iran resolution ahead of Memorial Day weekend, one of the largest U.S. driving periods of the year after Thanksgiving.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 09:40

Treasury Refunding: No Changes To Auction Sizes; Bessent Keeps "At Least" In Forward Guidance

Zero Hedge -

Treasury Refunding: No Changes To Auction Sizes; Bessent Keeps "At Least" In Forward Guidance

In our preview to this morning's Quarterly Refunding Statement, we said that we do not expect major changes and that, at most, the treasury might adjust its statement language to soften the forward guidance on possibly futures increase in coupon auction sizes with one likely change would be dropping “at least” while retaining the expectation for unchanged coupon sizes over “the next several quarters” (recall Deutsche Bank said it expects nominal coupon increases beginning in February 2027). 

Overnight, JPMorgan agreed, writing that while the current auction calendar will leave Treasury well financed through FY27, "we do not think it will be adequate to meet the widening funding gap from FY27 and onward, and we continue to project a series of coupon auction increases beginning in February 2027." Accordingly, like DB, JPM also expected the Treasury to remove “at least” from the statement that “Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters." The bank said that If its expectations are realized, "we think this could push intermediate yields higher."

Well, moments ago the Treasury published its latest Quarterly Refunding Announcement, and contrary to prevailing expectations, it refused to make even a gentle hint at rising coupon sizes by keeping the "at least" language from the abovementioned statement, instead keeping it as is, or rather as was: 

Based on current projected borrowing needs, Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters

In other words, the US Treasury signaled again that it’s still comfortable using Yellen's Activist Treasury Issuance playbook to issue Bills, and not increase coupon issuance, to meet escalating government borrowing needs, even as warnings emerge about the strategy’s risks.

Ahead of the QRA, dealers were divided heading into the so-called quarterly refunding release on whether it might alter its guidance. Outsize US fiscal deficits make an expansion in longer-dated auctions practically inevitable at some stage. The department on Monday boosted its estimate for net borrowing this quarter amid lower net cash flows.

US debt managers have been using the same forward guidance since early 2024, in a policy that’s steadily boosted the share of bills of total debt outstanding (to roughly 22% from 14% before covid). The International Monetary Fund cautioned last month that this leaves federal debt costs more vulnerable to sudden swings in rates and shifts in sentiment, because auctions are more frequent.

And sure enough, with no changes to the forward guidance:

  • *TREASURY YIELDS EDGE LOWER AFTER UNCHANGED GUIDANCE ON AUCTIONS

The rest of the statement was also in line with expectations, with the Treasury stating "it believes its current auction sizes leave it well positioned to address potential changes to the fiscal outlook and to the size and composition of the SOMA portfolio." It added that it was monitoring SOMA purchases of Treasury bills and growing demand for Treasury bills from the private sector.  And, as before, looking ahead the treasury continues to evaluate potential future increases to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes, with a focus on trends in structural demand and potential costs and risks of various issuance profiles. 

Looking at the actual refunding auctions next, the Treasury’s refunding debt sales will total $125 billion, unchanged from the sum unveiled in February and in line with the expectations of Wall Street bond dealers.

Treasury also maintained guidance on coupon sizes for the coming quarters. Refunding issuance to raise new cash of approximately $41.7BN (offering $125BN to refund $83.3BN).

  • Treasury to sell $58bn of 3-year notes on May 11
  • Treasury to sell $42bn of 10-year notes on May 12
  • Treasury to sell $25bn of 30-year bonds on May 13

The table below presents the actual auction sizes for the February to April 2026 quarter and the anticipated auction sizes for the May to July 2026 quarter: 

The total compares to a peak of $126BN first reached in Feb. 2021; auction sizes across the curve began rising in 2018 to finance tax cuts and surged in 2020 to finance the federal pandemic response, and to give the Fed's QE X securities to buy.

Here are some other highlights from the Refunding report: 

Bills

  • Treasury expects to further increase offering sizes of shorter-dated benchmark bills over the coming weeks and, in late-May, anticipates issuing a short-dated CMB to meet the peak liquidity needs at the end of May due to maturing coupon securities.
  • Given projections for receipts associated with the mid-month corporate and non-withheld tax date, Treasury expects to implement modest reductions to short-dated bill auction sizes during the month of June. 
  • Thereafter, in July, Treasury anticipates incrementally increasing bill auction sizes across the curve.  As always, Treasury will continue to evaluate near-term borrowing needs and assess additional adjustments to bill auction sizes as appropriate

TIPS

  • Treasury plans to maintain the 10-year TIPS reopening this May at $19 billion; the five-year TIPS reopening in June at $24 billion; and the 10-year TIPS new issue at $21 billion in July

20-year

  • Treasury is modifying settlement timing for 20-year bond reopening auctions.
  • From the reopening auction scheduled for June 16th, 20-year reopening auctions will settle on the Friday of the auction week, while new issues will continue to settle at month end.

Buybacks (lowers cash management buybacks in 1mth-2-year, maintains liquidity support buybacks)

  • Expects to purchase up to USD 38bln in off-the-run securities across buckets for liquidity support (unchanged) and up to USD 25bln in the 1-month to 2-year maturity bucket for cash management purposes (prev. USD 75bln in Q1).

Cash Balance

  • Treasury is assuming a $900 billion cash balance at the end of June.
  • Treasury estimates that the size of the Treasury General Account (TGA) could peak at $1 trillion (plus or minus $50 billion) in late July.  This figure is consistent with Treasury’s long-standing cash balance policy and is driven by the large outflows expected to occur at that time. 

TBAC Minutes

  • Director Pietrangeli says while current issuance sizes are adequate to cover expected borrowing needs for the remainder of FY2026 (prev. Treasury is slightly overfunded in FY2026)
  • The median primary dealer forecast for privately-held net marketable borrowing implies a USD 1.3tln funding shortfall in FY2027-28 based on current coupon auction sizes and bill supply (prev. saw USD 1.1trln).
  • Debt Manager Jensen says dealers generally anticipate that nominal coupon auction sizes might next increase in early CY2027 (prev. late CY 2026 or CY early 2027), and expect Treasury to modify its forward guidance several quarters ahead of such a change.
  • The TBACCommittee unanimously recommended that Treasury maintain nominal coupon, FRN, and TIPS auction sizes at current levels
  • TBAC continues to believe that increases in coupon issuance could be warranted in FY2027 and discussed potential changes to the forward guidance for Treasury to consider
  • Committee had a "healthy debate" whether Treasury should consider investing excess cash in the overnight Treasury repo market to generate investment returns while “maintaining prudent risk management and avoiding market disruptions”
    • Key design choices mentioned by Committee members include the time of day that Treasury deploys cash into the repo market, the specific market segment that Treasury would invest in (e.g., triparty, centrally cleared), and Treasury’s required return
    • Presenter stressed that the economic viability of investing in the repo market is dependent on the spread between the rate Treasury earns on repo investments and the Federal Reserve’s interest on reserve balances rate (IORB)
    • Committee agreed that while there are potential economic returns from such investments, their size and economic viability depend on the market environment and monetary policy, and that additional study is warranted regarding operational and implementation considerations
  • Committee discussed the expansion of central clearing in Treasury securities market and the presenter reviewed key areas of progress by both the industry and regulators since the extension of the implementation deadlines, noting the recent increase in central clearing activity
  • Presenter highlighted recent requests for exemptions related to certain inter-affiliate and extraterritorial transactions as key outstanding issues to resolve
  • Presenter concluded that, although the industry has made steady progress, some operational and implementation challenges remain as the market transitions to expanded central clearing
Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 09:24

NANO Nuclear Soars On Strategic MOU With Supermicro For Powering AI Data Centers 

Zero Hedge -

NANO Nuclear Soars On Strategic MOU With Supermicro For Powering AI Data Centers 

NANO Nuclear and Supermicro have agreed to explore the integration of NANO’s KRONOS microreactor system with Supermicro’s AI server and data center platforms for scalable nuclear-powered solutions. The news of the strategic collaboration - a critical moment in the integration of alternative energy source within the AI rollout - sent the stock soaring in pre-market

We anticipate the shorts are also taking notice with over 22% of shares loaned out

“The AI revolution is fundamentally an energy challenge,” said Jay Yu, Chairman and President of NANO Nuclear, “and we believe nuclear power is the only scalable solution capable of meeting that demand.”

Through this MOU, NANO Nuclear and Supermicro will explore opportunities to:

  • Deploy NANO Nuclear's microreactors to provide dedicated, on-site nuclear power for data centers.
  • Integrate Supermicro's AI server racks, cooling systems, and infrastructure with nuclear-powered energy solutions.
  • Develop joint go-to-market strategies for hyperscale, enterprise, and edge data center customers.
  • Enable a new class of self-powered, grid-independent AI infrastructure.

"This is exactly where the future is heading compute and power becoming a unified solution," said James Walker, Chief Executive Officer of NANO Nuclear. "By aligning with Supermicro, NANO Nuclear is stepping directly into the center of one of the fastest growing and most capital-intensive markets in the world."

By partnering with Supermicro, NANO Nuclear gains direct alignment with a company at the forefront of the AI infrastructure buildout, providing:

  • Access to global data center customers and hyperscale operators.
  • Integration pathways with state-of-the-art AI hardware ecosystems.
  • A channel into one of the fastest-growing sectors of the global economy.

NANO is able to lean into their significant progress of deploying a KRONOS microreactor at the University of Illinois. The company recently submitted their construction permit application for the project and is well into the site preparation phase.

The company has also made strides with new partnerships in the Asian market, and has an agreement with BaRupOn for up to 1 GW of KRONOS microreactors for a data center campus in Texas. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 09:00

OpenAI Co-Founder Greg Brockman Defends Company's For-Profit Pivot... And His Own $30 Billion Payday

Zero Hedge -

OpenAI Co-Founder Greg Brockman Defends Company's For-Profit Pivot... And His Own $30 Billion Payday

Authored by Beige Luciano-Adams via The Epoch Times,

In the second week of a high-profile jury trial that could have profound impact on the race for artificial intelligence, OpenAI president Greg Brockman rejected allegations that he and other co-founders betrayed the company’s philanthropic mission and illegally enriched themselves by flipping the non-profit lab into a for-profit corporation.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk in 2024 sued Brockman and CEO Sam Altman, alleging they bilked him of $38 million in donations then restructured as a for-profit corporation by exclusively licensing their flagship product to Microsoft—betraying a founding mission to operate as an open-source charity that would counter the risks of profit-driven AI.

OpenAI and Microsoft deny the allegations, arguing that Musk abandoned the company in 2018 to start his own for-profit competitor, xAI, when other founders rejected his bid to take full control of the operation.

“I think we’ve been very consistent on the mission,” Brockman told a federal court in Oakland.

“If you look at what we’ve accomplished—currently the foundation has $150 billion worth of OpenAI equity value. That’s something we’ve built through hard blood, sweat, and tears through all this time since Elon left.”

The company’s nonprofit foundation has a 27 percent stake in OpenAI’s for-profit corporation; Microsoft, which has invested more than $13 billion since 2019, owns 26 percent.

Called as an adverse witness for the plaintiff, Brockman over two days May 4–5 offered testimony outlining an alternate narrative and timeframe than the one Musk presented the week prior.

Brockman also attempted to add context to what he has claimed were “cherrypicked” segments of his personal diary, unsealed during the discovery process.

He often spoke in incomplete sentences, punctuated by stock phrases like, “We were solving for the mission.”

Arguably, this had less zing to it than, “You can’t just steal a charity”—a phrase Musk favored in his own testimony.

‘Morally Bankrupt’

Musk’s attorney Steven Molo grilled Brockman on a series of diary entries from 2017 and 2018, a time of intense negotiations with Musk over the future structure of the company.

In one from 2017, Brockman muses, “It’d be wrong to steal the nonprofit from [Musk] and turn it into a B-Corp without him—doing so would be pretty morally bankrupt.”

Brockman denied this contradicted his commitment to OpenAI’s mission. “I think I meant it would actually serve the mission, but it would be hard to look at yourself in the mirror,” he told the court.

Under cross-examination, he explained he was referring to the idea of voting Musk off the board of directors, which he had considered at the time.

“It had been made clear to us,” he said, “that if we didn’t come to [Musk’s] terms, he was going to start an AGI competitor.”

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is the hypothetical point at which digital intelligence reaches or surpasses human cognitive abilities and can operate autonomously.

Some, including Musk, believe we have already achieved an early version of it, and that AGI advancement in the wrong hands poses the greatest existential threat to humanity. Musk testified that this threat was the express motivation for creating OpenAI as an open-source, nonprofit lab.

From late 2017 to early 2018, Musk, Altman, Brockman, and Ilya Sutskever, another OpenAI co-founder and its former chief scientist, floated various ideas as they debated how to fund the project at a competitive level.

Musk, the main donor, rejected an even equity split among the four co-founders, instead proposing a deal that would give him majority stake, to be diluted as more investors joined.

Brockman said he and Sutskever were willing to accept Musk being CEO and having a majority stake. “But the one thing we could not accept was to hand him unilateral total control over the AGI.”

Musk was the wrong man for the job, according to Brockman.

“Look, he knows rockets, he knows electric cars, he did not and I believe does not know AI,” Brockman said of the Tesla and SpaceX CEO.

“And Ilya and I did not think he was going to spend the time required to actually get good at it.”

Brockman alleged Musk “didn’t recognize that spark” in early language models underlying the GPT technology. “It was there, a working version, we could see the promise. … We really needed someone running the company that had that effect.”

Molo pressed the witness, pointing to emails from Musk proposing a 16-person board for the new corporation, in which Musk would have a 25 percent influence.

“This is the man you’re saying wanted to be the AI tyrant and have absolute and total control?” Molo probed.

“He wanted a board, and conducted in a way you were not familiar with because you didn’t have the experience of corporate governance, did you?”

Brockman acknowledged, “Definitely, this is something I was new to,” but maintained that there was never a real plan for Musk to relinquish control.

In a January 2018 email to Musk and others, Brockman stressed that a moral high ground was “our best tool,” and to maintain it, the company should endeavor to remain a nonprofit. “AI is going to shake up the fabric of society, and our fiduciary duty should be to humanity.”

But back in November 2017, Molo pointed out that Brockman’s diary entries show he was worried about how it would look if the founders continued to say they were committed to a nonprofit while planning to convert to a for-profit.

“Cannot say that we are committed to the nonprofit. Don’t wanna say that we’re committed. If three months later we’re doing b-corp then it was a lie,” Brockman wrote. “Can’t see us turning this into a for-profit without a very nasty fight.”

When Musk issued an ultimatum in 2018 to “either go do something on your own or continue with OpenAI as a nonprofit,” Brockman said he was “devastated.”

“It felt like we were so close to something that could actually succeed at the mission … and it was all blown up.”

$30 Billion Question

Molo accused Brockman of plotting to use OpenAI to become a billionaire, this time referencing journal entries made six days after he’d told Musk he wanted to continue to fundraise for the nonprofit, in which he asks, “What will take me to $1 billion?”

“There’s a lot of context here,” Brockman said. “It was expression of a frustration, not a plan.”

He described it as a “fork in the road,” where he would either accept Musk’s terms or part ways with him.

The road without Musk led Brockman to a $30-billion equity stake in OpenAI’s for-profit corporation. But Brockman said it was not about the money: “I think I’d be happy with either of those routes,” he said in court.

Molo pounced. Why then, if he was “good with a billion,” would Brockman not donate the extra $29 billion to the nonprofit to which he had a fiduciary duty?

“That was really about picking between these two roads … which one will I actually be happy with? ... Feel enthusiastic getting out of bed, and do [sic] the work every day?” Brockman said.

“It takes $30 billion to get you out of bed in the morning, but $1 billion doesn’t get you out of bed?” Molo asked. “You had a fiduciary duty. … You took the assets from the nonprofit, you moved them into the for-profit to create this money-making machine that resulted in you having $30 billion.”

Implying that he raided the charity to enrich himself was “a deep mischaracterization,” Brockman said.

Molo also grilled Brockman on a commitment he made to donate $100,000 to the nonprofit but never delivered—and on billions in deals that OpenAI has secured with at least three other companies in which Brockman has an ownership stake.

The plaintiff’s attorney also highlighted a 2017 “side deal” in which Altman gave Brockman around $10 million of equity in the company holding assets of his personal family office.

When pressed, Brockman said he didn’t conceal this from Musk.

“Elon’s time was relatively hard to get, there were a lot of decisions to make that we weren’t able to broadcast to him,” he told the jury.

Sam Altman listens as OpenAI President Greg Brockman testifies during Elon Musk's lawsuit trial over OpenAI's for-profit conversion before U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers at a federal courthouse in Oakland, Calif., on May 4, 2026, in a courtroom sketch. Vicki Behringer/Reuters

Origins

Under cross-examination, Brockman told a story about the beginnings of OpenAI—from which Musk was conspicuously absent.

The spark, he said, began at a small dinner party in Menlo Park, where attendees considered whether it was too late to create an AI lab that could compete with Google’s Deep Mind project—at the time, the world leader in AI. That was in July 2015.

Musk was there, Brockman said, but the real catalyst was an agreement between himself and Altman, the same night, that “this was the most important thing we could imagine doing.”

He got to work, acting along with Altman as “the main drivers” of the project.

By November, they had assembled a list of 10 names for an “offsite” event in Napa Valley, nine of whom ended up joining OpenAI’s team. “It was an amazing day of creative energy, people really clicked,” Brockman said. So much so that, as their van remained stalled in traffic for 1.5 hours, “no one noticed because the conversation was so good.”

Brockman said he had no contact with Musk between the dinner and the offsite. “I expected he would donate,” he said of the Tesla founder, suggesting his role was relegated to little more than closing calls and occasional advice.

Under re-direct, Molo challenged this characterization.

“I know he wasn’t in the van with you guys on the highway, but he was instrumental in founding and kickstarting OpenAI, was he not?” Molo said, noting that Musk provided the dominant funding, vision, and leveraged his formidable relationships to recruit talent and resources.

Mission Creep

Brockman also denied that Musk was concerned with open-sourcing the company’s technology, or keeping it as a non-profit forever.

By the time the company made its public launch in December 2015, Brockman said, Musk was already considering they might need to add a for-profit corporation in order to be competitive. But the Tesla CEO’s concurrent pledge to donate $1 billion never materialized.

Musk donated an estimated $38 million to OpenAI from 2015 through 2020.

OpenAI’s mission statement, posted in 2015, notes a goal of advancing digital intelligence “in the way that is most likely to benefit humanity as a whole, unconstrained by a need to generate financial return.”

Brockman edited the original, in which Musk had used the word “unencumbered.”

“I understood this as a lack of constraint, we had a lot of freedom. We had not made commitments,” Brockman said Monday.

In 2023, the year Microsoft invested $10 billion in OpenAI’s for-profit subsidiary (the company restructured in 2025 to its current form, a public benefit corporation), Brockman wrote the board with a proposed change to the OpenAI charter, indicating he had been “wrong at times” about the original set up, and that “we’ve grown to regard capitalism not as a constraint, but instead, as a positive force,” according to evidence presented by Musk’s attorneys.

The Board never approved the updated charter, but Musk’s team argues it articulates a marked shift—away from OpenAI’s mission.

“No way Microsoft is giving that as a donation in any kind of charitable way,“ Musk testified last week, recalling his thoughts at the time. ”This is a bait and switch.”

Realizing that the non-profit would be “subservient” to the for-profit, he said, “This is when I thought there had been a breach of charitable trust.”

Brockman testified he never made any commitments to Musk that OpenAI would remain a nonprofit, nor that it would continue to open source its technology.

Musk is asking that OpenAI be reverted to a nonprofit, that more than $100 billion in damages be returned to it, and that Altman and Brockman be removed from their leadership roles.

U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers told the jury on May 5 that she expects all evidence to be presented by early next week, at which point they may begin their deliberation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 08:45

Corning Shares Erupt On Nvidia Deal To Supercharge Fiber Optics Output By 10x

Zero Hedge -

Corning Shares Erupt On Nvidia Deal To Supercharge Fiber Optics Output By 10x

U.S.-based glass company Corning soared in premarket trading in New York after announcing a new mega deal with Nvidia to expand manufacturing capacity for fiber optic production used in AI data centers.

"Corning will increase its U.S.-based optical connectivity manufacturing capacity by 10x and expand its U.S. fiber production capacity by more than 50% to meet the accelerating demand driven by AI factory buildouts," Nvidia wrote in a press release. 

The expansion includes three new manufacturing plants in North Carolina and Texas and is expected to create more than 3,000 high-paying U.S. jobs.

In a filing, Corning disclosed that Nvidia is making a $500 million equity-linked investment.

Under the deal, Corning issued Nvidia two warrants:

  • Traditional warrant: Nvidia can buy up to 15 million Corning shares at $180 per share.

  • Pre-funded warrant: Nvidia can buy up to 3 million Corning shares at a nominal exercise price of $0.0001 per share.

Both warrants are exercisable immediately and expire within three years, unless earlier triggered by the termination of the partnership agreement or a major M&A transaction.

Nvidia noted, "Corning's expanded capacity will supply the optical connectivity hyperscale data centers use to deploy NVIDIA-accelerated computing at scale." 

In premarket trading, Nvidia shares are up 2.4%, while Corning shares are ripping higher, up 20%.

The Corning-Nvidia deal to expand fiber-optic production to supply data centers comes as hyperscalers are set to spend $700 billion this year alone on data center buildouts.

UBS trader Robert Ruple told clients last week that "there was a mixed bag of hyperscaler prints that leaned generally constructive and nothing he would call out that really shifts the narrative. Most critical was that Microsoft, Alphabet, and META all lifted capex forecasts, which should be enough to keep the AI thesis in play." Read the full note here.

However, we must point out: "Banks Are Choking": The AI Debt Bubble Has Started To Burst ... 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 08:30

Deja Vu All Over Again: Futures Surge, Oil Tumbles On Iran Deal Optimism, Tech Rally

Zero Hedge -

Deja Vu All Over Again: Futures Surge, Oil Tumbles On Iran Deal Optimism, Tech Rally

US equity futures are up big this morning and making fresh all time highs, led by tech companies, while oil prices and bond yields fell sharply on optimism that the US and Iran are nearing a peace deal. As of 8:00am Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.7% while those for the S&P 500 gained 1%, with both gauges set to build on record highs. Iran is evaluating a new proposal from the US to end their near 10-week war, according to an Axios report. If Tehran accepts the terms, it will lead to a gradual reopening of Hormuz and lifting of the American blockade on Iranian ports. Brent tanked 11% to below $98 a barrel. That comes as US gasoline prices topped $4.50 a gallon for the first time since July 2022. The yield on 10-year Treasuries dropped eight basis points to 4.35%. In the UK, the rate on two-year UK gilts tumbled 17 basis points. The dollar hit the lowest level since February, while gold topped $4,700 an ounce. Bitcoin rose for a seventh straight day. US economic data calendar slate includes April ADP employment change at 8:15am. Fed speaker slate includes Musalem (9:30am) and Goolsbee (1pm)

In premarket, most Mag 7 names are higher: Alphabet (GOOGL) climbs 1.6% after the Information reported that AI startup Anthropic plans to spend about $200 billion with Google over five years (Amazon +1%, Apple -0.5%, Nvidia +2.5%, Meta +0.5%, Microsoft +0.1, Tesla +0.6%)

  • Miners, cruise operators and airline companies gain, while energy and fertilizer stocks fall, after a report on the US and Iran nearing a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war.
  • Semiconductor, power equipment and data center stocks rally after solid results from Advanced Micro Devices and Super Micro — in a sign of robust end-to-end artificial intelligence-related demand.
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rallies 19% after the chipmaker gave an outlook that is stronger than expected, a sign of robust AI-related demand.
  • Alphatec Holdings (ATEC) sinks 16% after the medical device company posted sales for the first quarter that disappointed Wall Street. TD Cowen calls the report a “tough start to 2026.”
  • Apollo Global (APO) rises 3% after the alternative asset manager eclipsed $1 trillion of assets under management on record first-quarter inflows and reported earnings that beat Wall Street estimates.
  • Compass Inc. (COMP) gains 31% after the real estate brokerage platform reported first-quarter revenue that beat average analyst estimates. The firm’s second-quarter revenue forecast is ahead of consensus.
  • CVS Health (CVS) rises 5% after the health insurer boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year. The firm also posted adjusted profit and comparable sales for the first quarter that topped the average analyst estimate.
  • Geo Group (GEO) gains 11% after the private correctional facilities company boosted its adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year, with the guidance beating the average analyst estimate.
  • Klaviyo (KVYO) falls 18% after announcing Amanda Whalen will step down from her role as CFO. The application software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and the outlook was raised on key metrics.
  • Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC) rises 2% after reporting quarterly sales that beat Wall Street expectations, as higher prices and the company’s investments in its lagging brands helped boost North American sales.
  • Primoris Services (PRIM) slumps 31% after the construction and engineering services company cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
  • Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) leaps 13% after the company reported improved margins and gave a profit forecast that suggested it’s controlling the costs of getting powerful AI servers into customers’ hands.
  • TransMedics (TMDX) falls 21% after the medical equipment firm reported adjusted earnings per share that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. It also reaffirmed its revenue forecast for the full year.
  • Uber Technologies (UBER) gains 9% after providing a better-than-expected forecast for bookings, signaling that robust demand from US commuters and travelers will offset impact from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
  • Veracyte (VCYT) rises 14% after the diagnostics firm reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average Wall Street analyst estimate.

In other corporate news, Novo Nordisk’s new Wegovy obesity pill fueled sales in the first quarter and the drugmaker said this year’s proft and sales declines won’t be as bad as previously expected. BMW expects profitability to remain broadly stable this year as the automaker offsets a downturn in China with robust sales in Europe. Samsung reached a $1 trillion market valuation after shares more than quadrupled over the past year on booming demand for AI chips. And the FT reported that China’s main chip-sector investment fund is in discussions to lead a fundraising round for DeepSeek at a valuation of about $45 billion. 

Risk assets soared and oil tumbled, as geopolitical and micro tailwinds fueled risk-on sentiment broadly across the market. On Geopolitics, Brent tanked 11% to below $98 a barrel following an Axios report that US & Iran are working on a memorandum that would set a framework for more nuclear talks (and said US expects Iranian responses on key points in the next 48 hours). Here are the details from the Axios report:

  • A Pakistani source has confirmed that the US and Iran are closing in on a one-page memorandum to end their conflict, Reuters reports.
  • US and Iran are reportedly closing in on one-page memo to end war, Axios reported citing officials; White House believes it is close to an agreement to end the war and establish a framework for detailed nuclear negotiations.
  • MoU details, as it stands: Declare an end to the war in the region and the start of a 30-day period of negotiations, which could occur in Geneva or Islamabad. Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment (at least 12-15 years). US agreeing to lift sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds. Both sides lifting restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz, to occur gradually during the 30-day negotiation.
  • If talks collapsed, US forces could restore the blockade or resume military action.
  • Uranium Component: The duration of the moratorium is being actively negotiated. Sources suggest at least 12yrs and one suggesting 15yrs is likely; Iran sought five, the US wanted 20. Suggested that Iran would agree to its highly enriched uranium being removed from Iran, potentially to the US.
  • Timeline: Iran is expected to respond within 48 hours. While nothing has been agreed upon, sources indicate this is the closest the parties have been to a deal since the war began.
  • Issues: Some US officials remain sceptical that even an initial deal will be reached. Fractures within the Iranian leadership.

Separately, last night Trump paused “Project Freedom” in the Strait citing “great progress” towards an agreement. 

“The market continues to price in de-escalation and an easing in supply constraints,” said Geoff Yu, senior macro strategist at BNY. “The road ahead is bumpy, but the direction of travel seems clear.”

AI euphoria is also helping the rally. Alphabet is up in premarket trading after the Information reported Anthropic plans to spend about $200 billion with Google over five years. AMD was priced for perfection ahead of results, but managed to deliver, with shares soaring after the chipmaker gave robust predictions for longer-term growth. That’s adding to nerves about how Nvidia will retain its grip on the AI processor market in the face of intense competition.  

Meanwhile, looking under the hood, while both US stock benchmarks are set to extend Tuesday’s record highs, the S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index hasn’t posted a new high since February. This thin leadership is raising “yellow flags” for Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider, while Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau also noted earlier that stocks seem “increasingly disconnected from signals coming from the rates and oil markets.”

In politics, voters in Ohio handily backed Trump ally Vivek Ramaswamy’s bid to be the Republican nominee for governor, while Democrat Sherrod Brown will get another shot at returning to the Senate after being defeated in 2024. Ken Griffin said he plans to make Citadel’s Miami tower even bigger after New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani name-checked the billionaire in his pledge to charge more taxes on second homes.

In private credit, Oaktree Capital cut the value of one of its funds by almost 4% as the firm marked down its software assets. A New Mountain Capital private credit fund that sold almost half-a-billion-dollars of assets at a discount earlier this year and used some of the cash to scoop up beaten-down loans says the strategy is already paying off.

Elsewhere in geopolitics, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Iran to keep negotiating in pursuit of a lasting truce with the US, as he hosted Tehran’s top diplomat just days before Trump is scheduled to arrive in Beijing. The clash between Trump and Pope Leo XIV has flared up again, complicating a delicate diplomatic mission by Marco Rubio to the Vatican this week.

Looking at earnings, of the 375 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far this earnings season, 84% have beaten analysts’ forecasts, while 11% have missed.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 2.3% with breadth strong. Mining and automobile shares are leading gains, while energy and utilities stocks are the biggest laggards. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

  • The Stoxx 600 basic resources sector rallied as much as 4% as gold and copper edged higher after US President Donald Trump touted progress on a final agreement with Iran
  • Novo Nordisk shares jump as much as 9.2%, the most since Dec. 23, after the Danish drugmaker raised its 2026 guidance ranges for adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit
  • Demant surges as much as 17%, the most since October 2008, after the firm delivers sales ahead of consensus expectations in the first quarter
  • Pandora shares rise as much as 11%, continuing a rally from March’s 3.5-year low, after the Danish jewelry maker’s first-quarter Ebit margins beat estimates, partly due to a change in the timing of certain costs
  • Kongsberg shares rise as much as 11%, their steepest jump since February, after the Norwegian defense technology firm posted what Morgan Stanley called strong results across all metrics
  • Diageo shares gain 6.6% after the British maker of Johnnie Walker and Guinness reported organic net sales for the third quarter that beat analyst estimates and maintained its full-year guidance
  • Vestas shares rise as much as 2% as the Danish wind turbine maker reported 1Q Ebit before significant items that beat the average analyst estimate
  • Equinor declined as much as 6.3%, its biggest drop since April 17 after the energy company reported total revenue for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate
  • Wolters Kluwer falls as much as 14%, the most since 2003, after 1Q results that were broadly in line but did little to resolve the AI debate that has weighed heavily on the stock
  • Orsted shares drop 4.4% after the Danish wind farm operator reported 1Q Ebitda that beat the average analyst estimate, while after-tax profit missed

Tech optimism saw the Kospi hit another record high in APAC trade as Samsung joined the $1 trillion valuation club.  Asian stocks jumped to a record, with technology shares leading gains after positive company forecasts reinforced confidence in continued growth tied to artificial intelligence. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 2.6% to a record high, with Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and MediaTek providing the biggest boosts. Equities in South Korea, Thailand and China led the advances, while Japan’s market was closed for a holiday. Chinese stocks posted gains after the market reopened after a five-day holiday, with tech shares leading the rally. The government estimated more than 1.5 billion passenger trips took place during the break, while box office grew to 758 million yuan ($111 million). Sentiment was also lifted by improvement in a private gauge of services activities in April. Investors will also keep their eyes on the expected summit between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump next week for potential signs of easing tensions.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index is down 0.8% as expectations of a Fed hike by year-end have been fully unwound.  The yen surged after a 4th consecutive intervention by the BOJ/MOF but a large portion of the initial dip in USD/JPY has retraced.      

In rates, sovereign bonds are rallying around the world and treasuries hold a strong bid in early US session, with futures on session highs amid a slump in oil prices after Axios reported Washington and Tehran are working on a memorandum that would set a framework for further nuclear talks, with nothing agreed upon yet. Subsequent reports indicated Iran is evaluating a new US proposal to end the war. US front-end and intermediate yields dropped at least 10bp, long-end yields about 7bp, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 3bp-4bp; 10-year fell 9bp to 4.33%. Fed-dated OIS contracts flipped back to pricing in chance of a rate cut this year, with around 6bp of easing priced in for September, and trimmed pricing for a rate hike in 2027. Treasury quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am, with consensus expectation for unchanged coupon auction sizes, however some banks anticipate new forward guidance, shortening the time frame for stability from “at least the next several quarters” IG dollar issuance slate includes three deals so far. Six names priced $5.25 billion on Tuesday with issuers paying less than 2bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 7.2 times covered — nearly double the year-to-date average. At least two borrowers elected against moving forward

Measures of US corporate-credit risk improved in the opening minutes of trading, with the gauge for high-grade notes at its tightest in over two months. The environment coming into the US session was already positive for debt capital markets, with investment-grade spreads matching their tightest level since Feb. 20 on Tuesday and leveraged-loan prices at their highest level since then. Though there have been 15 high-grade bond sales to start the week, just $13.6 billion has been raised

In commodities, crude prices are sliding with Brent down over 9% and just below the $100/bbl mark. Spot gold and silver post respective gains of 3.4% and 6.5%. Bitcoin is higher by 0.7%.

US economic data calendar slate includes April ADP employment change at 8:15am. Fed speaker slate includes Musalem (9:30am) and Goolsbee (1pm)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini +0.9%,
  • Nasdaq 100 mini +1.2%,
  • Russell 2000 mini +1.5%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +2.2%,
  • DAX +2.4%,
  • CAC 40 +2.5%
  • 10-year Treasury yield -7 basis points at 4.35%
  • VIX -0.7 points at 16.72
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.7% at 1187.12,
  • euro +0.7% at $1.1769
  • WTI crude -6.6% at $95.52/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • The White House believes it's getting close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations. Axios
  • Trump posts: If Iran agrees to deal, the blockade of the Hormuz Strait will be lifted. "If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before. "
  • Donald Trump earlier said he would pause US efforts to move ships through the Strait of Hormuz as he seeks an agreement with Iran, citing “great progress.” The blockade on Iranian ports remains. BBG
  • Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met w/his Iranian counterpart on Wed and called for a swift reopening of Hormuz. BBG
  • China Is Still Supplying Drone Factories in Iran, Russia Despite U.S. Sanctions. Obscure Chinese companies are openly shipping dual-use goods such as engines and batteries, defying American controls. WSJ
  • The US will implement its 25% tariffs on cars and trucks from the EU “relatively soon” if the bloc doesn’t swiftly ratify a long-delayed trade deal, the American ambassador to the bloc Andrew Puzder said. BBG
  • China’s biggest state-backed semiconductor investment vehicle is in talks to lead the financing of DeepSeek’s first fundraising that could value the AI group at about $45bn. FT
  • Novo shares jumped as its new Wegovy pill boosted sales, and the company guided to a smaller-than-expected revenue decline this year. The oral version had the best US launch of any GLP-1. BBG
  • Alphabet outperformed its Magnificent Seven peers premarket after the Information reported that Anthropic plans to spend about $200 billion with Google over five years. BBG
  • The yen hit a two-month high, spurring fresh intervention speculation. BBG
  • While both US stock benchmarks are set to extend Tuesday’s records highs, the S&P500 Equal-Weight Index hasn’t posted a new high since February. BBG

Axios report on MOU between the US and Iran

  • A Pakistani source has confirmed that the US and Iran are closing in on a one-page memorandum to end their conflict, Reuters reports.
  • US and Iran are reportedly closing in on one-page memo to end war, Axios reported citing officials; White House believes it is close to an agreement to end the war and establish a framework for detailed nuclear negotiations.
  • MoU details, as it stands: Declare an end to the war in the region and the start of a 30-day period of negotiations, which could occur in Geneva or Islamabad. Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment (at least 12-15 years). US agreeing to lift sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds. Both sides lifting restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz, to occur gradually during the 30-day negotiation.
  • If talks collapsed, US forces could restore the blockade or resume military action.
  • Uranium Component: The duration of the moratorium is being actively negotiated. Sources suggest at least 12yrs and one suggesting 15yrs is likely; Iran sought five, the US wanted 20. Suggested that Iran would agree to its highly enriched uranium being removed from Iran, potentially to the US.
  • Timeline: Iran is expected to respond within 48 hours. While nothing has been agreed upon, sources indicate this is the closest the parties have been to a deal since the war began.
  • Issues: Some US officials remain sceptical that even an initial deal will be reached. Fractures within the Iranian leadership.

Other Iran News

  • US President Trump posted that Project Freedom will be paused for a short period to see whether or not the agreement with Iran can be finalised and signed, blockade will remain in full effect.
  • Journalist Mallick posted "...i would not be surprised if there is an incoming Iranian proposal to Washington via Islamabad, soon.". Full post:"As what I understand, while the ball largely lies in Iranian court when it comes to US - Iran negotiations, i would not be surprised if there is an incoming Iranian proposal to Washington via Islamabad, soon.".
  • Iranian and Saudi Arabian Foreign Ministers held a phone call; stressed continuing diplomacy and prevent escalation of tensions.
  • Iranian President Pezeshkian said US demands from Iran are impossible and unattainable.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio spoke with Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov, in which the US-Russia relationship, Russia-Ukraine war and Iran was discussed.
  • Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson denies the UAE's accusation that Iran fired missiles and drones at it, stating that Iran's defensive actions were exclusively directed at the US, according to a statement. UAE is cooperating with the US and Israel against Iran.
  • Israeli Ambassador said relations with the UAE are growing.
  • IRGC denies any involvement with the attacks on the UAE earlier in the week.
  • Pakistan's PM thanks the US President for pausing Project Freedom, in response to a request from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, among others.
  • "Iraqi Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi held a telephone conversation with US Secretary of War Hegseth about bilateral relations in various fields", Tasnim reported.
  • The two US commercial ships that crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday had military security aboard, NBC reported citing sources.
  • A French bulk carrier was hit by a cruise missile in the waters near the UAE, CBS reported citing officials.
  • CMA CGM confirms a vessel was the target of an attack on Tuesday while it was crossing the Strait of Hormuz.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded entirely in the green, following on from the gains stateside and the positive update from President Trump, stating that Project Freedom is to be paused for a short time to see whether or not the agreement with Iran can be finalised and signed. ASX 200 neared last week’s peak of 8787, rebounding after two consecutive days of losses. The bounce was supported by Financials and Industrials, while Energy lagged as oil prices fell. KOSPI surged at the open, breaking the 7000 handle, and even activated the buy-side sidecar within the first 5 minutes of trade. Tech giants helped the surge in the index, with Samsung Electronics (+15%) being the latest Co. to join the USD 1tln market cap group. Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng followed the positive risk-on tone as Shanghai returned from holidays. CK Hutchison gained after the Co. agreed to sell its 49% stake in VodafoneThree, while Wuliangye Yibin underperformed after a double downgrade at Goldman Sachs. On the data front, RatingDog services PMI beat estimates, which further supported the indices.

Top Asian News

  • China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi, Xinhua reported.
  • BHP (BHP AT) CFO said new investors are buying into the Co. on copper exposure and AI demand.
  • KOSPI sidecar activated after KOSPI 200 futures rise by 5%.

European bourses are stronger across the board, buoyed by optimism surrounding US-Iran peace. Opened higher as markets reacted to Trump’s decision to temporarily pause “Project Freedom”, and then took another leg higher to make fresh peaks on an Axios report which suggested that the US and Iran are closing in on an MoU to end the conflict. European sectors are entirely in the green, except for Energy and Utilities; the latter, unsurprisingly, is hampered by losses in underlying oil prices. The top of the pile consists of Basic Resources (lifted by strength in metals prices), Autos and Consumer Products. The Autos sector has been driven higher by post-earning strength in BMW (+5%, beat exp. but faced fierce price competition in China) and Continental (+5.5%, Q1 results topped exp. and confirmed guidance). The Consumer Products sector has benefited from gains in jewellery-name Pandora (+9%) after Q1 revenue beat estimates, but did experience weakness across North America and Europe.

Top European News

  • EU PPI MoM (Mar) M/M 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. -0.7%, Low. 0.8%, High. 3.7%).
  • EU PPI YoY (Mar) Y/Y 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. -3%, Low. -0.5%, High. 2.1%).
  • EU S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Apr) 48.8 vs. Exp. 48.6 (Prev. 50.7).
  • EU S&P Global Services PMI Final (Apr) 47.6 vs. Exp. 47.4 (Prev. 50.2).
  • UK S&P Global Services PMI Final (Apr) 52.7 vs. Exp. 52 (Prev. 50.5).
  • UK S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Apr) 52.6 vs. Exp. 52.0 (Prev. 50.3).

FX

  • Snapshot: G10s are stronger against the USD this morning, to varying degrees. Antipodeans outperform, given the risk tone; JPY is also towards the top of the pile, following likely intervention overnight. SEK is a touch weaker vs EUR, after a cooler-than-expected inflation report, but is unlikely to shift the dial for the Riksbank on Thursday.
  • DXY is weaker this morning, and currently trades at the lower end of a 97.79 to 98.34 range. Pressure facilitated by the risk-on mood, amidst optimism surrounding progress towards US-Iran peace. This stems from a post from the POTUS, who announced that the US would pause Project Freedom to allow time for negotiations to occur. The move lower was then exacerbated after an Axios report suggested that the US and Iran are closing in on an MoU to end the conflict. In its current form, it would declare and end to the war with Iran. Potential JPY intervention also facilitating the pressure this morning
  • Focus overnight was on USD/JPY, where an aggressive move lower took the pair to a 155.00 handle, before bouncing back towards 156.00. There is currently no confirmation that the move was intervention, but markets should begin to get some details on recent moves late in the Japanese session. Time will tell whether these attempts of intervention proves effective, given the volatile nature of the Middle Eastern conflict. A near-term resolution will help the USD/JPY trundle lower, a factor which Japanese Officials would probably require to achieve any lasting strength in the JPY.

Central Banks

  • ECB's Cipollone said the EZ inflation trend is moving towards adverse.
  • ECB Wage Tracker: 2026 annual 2.282% (prev. 2.270%). Q1 1.847% (prev. 1.887%). Q2 2.131% (prev. 2.10%). Q3 2.553% (prev. 2.521%). Q4 2.597% (prev. 2.574%).
  • BoE Governor Bailey said we must be mindful of risks of private credit.
  • NAB sees the RBA hiking in June to take the cash rate to 4.60%.
  • RBNZ Governor Breman said banks are resilient under stress tests.
  • RBNZ Financial Stability Report: New Zealand's financial system is resilient and well positioned to support households and businesses even if economic conditions soften. The global risk environment has worsened over the past six months, as conflict in the Middle East threatens world energy supply.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8562 vs exp. 6.8160 (prev. 6.8628).
  • BoK official said inflation is seen higher in May and are closely monitoring inflation trend as uncertainty is high over the Middle East situation.

Fixed Income

  • Unsurprisingly, a bullish start for fixed income as the marked energy retreat has allowed yields to ease. Pressure in energy facilitated by a) Trump pausing Project Freedom to allow time for negotiations, b) Axios report suggested US-Iran are close to an MoU. (See geopols section for details).
  • USTs to a 110-28+ peak, with gains of 15 ticks and breaching Monday's WTD 110-26+ best. For the US, aside from geopols, we are attentive to ADP ahead of NFP on Friday; ADP is seen at 79k from 62k, vs a 73k (prev. 178k) consensus for Friday's Payrolls. Additionally, we get the full Treasury Quarterly Refunding announcement after Monday's projections, before remarks from Fed's Musalem (2028) and Goolsbee (2027).
  • Bunds post gains in excess of 80 ticks and currently hold just off a 125.88 peak. A high that printed in proximity to the above geopolitical updates this morning, and after a slew of Final PMIs, which were subject to modest revision. Of note for policymakers, the ECB's latest wage tracker showed upside across the year. Though, the ECB will at this stage likely welcome the relatively modest level of upside and particularly that the Q4-2026 figure remains shy of the 2.709% reported in February.
  • Gilts gapped higher by 48 ticks before climbing another 30 ticks to an 87.32 peak, notching a new high for the week, but remain shy of last week's 87.03 closing price. Potentially capping a return to and test of that level is the ongoing scrutiny around PM Starmer, as UK press continues to brief that the challenge against Starmer is increasing, with the Welsh Labour leader seemingly primed to call for Starmer to step down on Friday and reports that the party is working to get Burnham back in the Commons.
  • Germany sells EUR 2.662bln vs exp. EUR 3.5bln 2.50% 2032 Bund Auction: b/c 2.4x (prev. 1.1x), avg. yield 2.8% (prev. 2.78%), retention 23.94%.

Commodities

  • Energy on the backfoot after US President Trump paused Project Freedom to allow time for talks and potential progress with Iran. An update that weighed on crude overnight, sending WTI below USD 100/bbl and Brent beneath USD 108/bbl. Thereafter, the complex took another hit after an Axios report which suggested that the US and Iran are closing in on an MoU to end the conflict (see geopols section for details).
  • As it stands WTI Jun’26 and Brent Jul’26 are holding towards session lows at USD 93.96/bbl and USD 101.46/bbl, respectively. Brent now eyes USD 100/bbl to the downside, and a further leg lower could see a retest of the low from 27th April 2026, at USD 99.58/bbl.
  • Gold is benefiting from the energy and USD downside, XAU as high as USD 4,708/oz, matching its 21 DMA. Base metals are also firmer, cheering the general risk tone and welcoming the return of Mainland China. 3M LME Copper above USD 13.2k, with gains in excess of USD 150 as things stand.
  • China has ordered its oil refineries that purchase crude from Tehran not to comply with or enforce US sanctions on Iranian oil, CNN reported.
  • Australia's PM Albanese said that they are to lift minimum stockpiles of every type of fuel by around 10 days, the fuel reserve is to be around 1 billion litres and the package is to cost more than AUD 10bln.
  • Weekly private inventory data (bbls): Crude -8.1mln (exp. -2.8), Gasoline -6.1mln (exp. -1.7mln), Distillates -4.6mln (exp. -2mln), Cushing -1.1mln.

Trade/Tariffs

  • Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin said China and the US are in communication on Trump's trip.
  • US Ambassador Puzder wants the US-EU trade agreement to be agreed on before July, Bloomberg TV.
  • US Envoy to India said Indian companies plan to invest over USD 20.5bln in the US tech, manufacturing and pharmaceuticals.

US Event Calendar

 

d

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 08:28

ADP Employment Report Signals Biggest Job Additions In 15 Months In April

Zero Hedge -

ADP Employment Report Signals Biggest Job Additions In 15 Months In April

With non-farm payrolls looming, we get another glimpse at the labor market today from the ADP Employment Report which shows the US economy added 109k jobs in April (a slight disappointment relative to +120k exp). That is the tenth straight month of job additions and strongest monthly addition since January 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, Goods-producing jobs rose 15,000 while Service-providing jobs rose 94,000.

"Small and large employers are hiring, but we're seeing softness in the middle," said Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.

"Large companies have resources to deploy, and small ones are the most nimble, both important advantages in a complex labor environment."

Health care's continued strength, along with a rebound in trade, transportation, and utilities, fueled last month's acceleration in hiring. 

Pay growth for job-stayers slowed slightly to 4.4 percent, but for job-changers, year-over-year pay gains were steady at 6.6 percent.

Is the economy transforming from 'no hire, no fire' to 'higher hire, still no fire' gains (see JOLTS' record hiring).

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 08:23

Novo Nordisk Soars After New Obesity Pill Momentum Lifts Guidance

Zero Hedge -

Novo Nordisk Soars After New Obesity Pill Momentum Lifts Guidance

Novo Nordisk shares jumped as much as 9% in Copenhagen, suggesting the stock may finally be bottoming out after a vicious multi-year bear market. The move followed the Danish drugmaker's decision to raise its 2026 guidance ranges for adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit, citing solid momentum in Wegovy sales.

Novo now expects full-year sales and profit declines of around 12%, down from a previous forecast of around 13%. The upgraded outlook was "driven by increased expectations for GLP-1 product sales," according to the company.

Here's a snapshot of the new full-year forecast, courtesy of Bloomberg:

  • Sees adjusted change in sales at constant exchange rates -4% to -12%, saw -5% to -13%, estimate -7.63% (Bloomberg Consensus)

  • Sees adjusted change in operating profit at constant FX -4% to -12%, saw -5% to -13%, estimate -8.26%

The key bright spot was momentum in the Wegovy pill:

  • Wegovy pill was launched in the US on 5 January 2026, and for the week ending 17 April, total weekly prescriptions exceeded 200,000. Coupled with total prescriptions for Q1 2026 of around 1.3 million and now more than 2 million since launch, it marks the strongest-ever GLP-1 volume launch in the US. Q1 2026 sales for the Wegovy pill reached DKK 2,256 million, impacted by pre-launch pipeline fill with wholesalers and telehealth partners.

  • Pending regulatory decisions, the first Wegovy pill launches outside the US are expected during the second half of 2026.

"We have seen more than 1 million people using the Wegovy pill," CEO Mike Doustdar told analysts on an earnings call earlier. He noted that patients are switching from competing products, with "limited cannibalization" of Novo's other drugs.

Still, Novo's overall business remains under pressure. First-quarter sales fell 10% to 70.1 billion Danish kroner, while adjusted operating profit dropped 15%. Diabetes drug sales fell 18%, with Ozempic hitting its lowest level in two years.

Novo is trying to regain momentum after losing market share to Eli Lilly's Zepbound injection.

Novo shares in Copenhagen jumped as much as 9%. Shares have been locked in a vicious, nearly two-year bear market, down 70% from their peak.

Analyst commentary, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Barclays (equal weight)

  • Oral Wegovy was "off to a strong start," analyst James Gordon writes in a note.

  • Sees questions on supply capacity when the pill launches in other countries, expected in 2H

  • Sees FY consensus expectations being increased by low single- digits

BMO Capital Markets (market perform)

  • The Wegovy pill "makes a splash" in its debut, analyst Evan Seigerman writes in a note.

  • It's encouraging that roughly 15%-16% of pill patients are filling scripts for the highest dosages.

  • This "could be a leading indicator for improved revenue going forward, given their higher price."

  • Wegovy and Ozempic injectables also beat expectations, "showing more resilience in the face of competition within class"

Jefferies (hold)

  • Although the 2026 guidance was nudged higher, it still leaves consensus expectations at the upper end of the range, analyst Michael Leuchten writes in a note.

  • The change in guidance probably won't have a positive impact on consensus estimates.

  • It could actually drag pretax profit and EPS expectations down a couple of percent.

Intron Health (sell)

  • Sales beat expectations by 1%, driven by Wegovy pill stocking of ~$125m, analyst Naresh Chouhan writes in a note

  • Meanwhile, gross margin was 30 bps worse than expected

Morgan Stanley (equal weight)

  • 1Q sales were a "small" beat, driven by the Wegovy pill — helped by stocking — and international operations, analyst Thibault Boutherin writes in a note

  • Lower operating costs helped the adjusted EBIT beat

  • Still sees the bottom end of the guidance as "conservative" and expects the company to finish the year "in the upper half of the guidance."

Did Novo finally bottom?

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 06:55

10 Wednesday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My mid-week morning train WFH reads:

Microsoft’s new research finds an AI ‘paradox’ holding companies back. A new study of 20,000 artificial intelligence users in workplaces around the world concludes that the biggest barrier to getting real value from AI isn’t the technology or the workers themselves — it’s the ingrained culture of the organizations where they work. That “Transformation Paradox” is one of the central findings from Microsoft’s annual Work Trend Index, released Tuesday morning, which paints a picture of employees eager to reshape their jobs and organizations that aren’t really in a position to make it happen. (Geekwire)

One Calf Shows Why Record Beef Prices Still Aren’t Coming Down: Pressures at every stage of the 18-month supply chain are expected to keep prices high at least through year end. (Bloomberg Free) see also It’ll be years before Americans get used to higher prices — and politicians can’t just wait it out: Consumers will eventually adjust, but in the meantime, they’ll keep punishing leaders who don’t act. The reference-point reset on the price level is permanent damage to political incumbents — left or right. Voters anchor on what they remember. (G. Elliott Morris)

International Diversification Is Finally Paying Off: The dollar’s weakness has contributed to a long-awaited foreign-stock rally and reduced correlations with US equities—at least for now. After fifteen years of underperformance, ex-US is finally earning its keep. A useful reminder that ‘home country bias’ eventually gets a bill. (Morningstar)

An AltView on Private Real Estate: Valuations seem high, but never mind. LFG!!!!! Still, confoundingly, private RE remains a default option for many institutions—until you pause and reflect. Higher fees reduce returns—and pay for seriously good propaganda A skeptical, well-sourced look at private real estate marks versus reality. Read it before your next non-traded REIT pitch. (AltView)

‘Microshifting’ puts a new spin on 9-to-5 schedules: The remote-era cousin to flex time. Whether it’s productivity gain or attention spread thin depends entirely on whose calendar you read. (AP News)

China’s Big Bet on Wind Power Is Paying Off: An industrial policy of subsidies and import restrictions laid the foundations for China to become almost as dominant in wind turbines as in solar panels. While we argue about windmills causing cancer, Beijing is shipping turbines and printing electricity. The energy-transition gap keeps widening. (New York Times)

Why Your Best Ideas Aren’t Original: Derek Thompson on the recombinant nature of creativity. Originality is mostly cross-pollination wearing a top hat. (Derek Thompson) see also Better Than Human: Why Robots Will—And Must—Take Our Jobs (2012): Kevin Kelly’s 2012 Wired classic on automation is more relevant than ever. The argument that robots replacing human labor is not just inevitable but desirable hasn’t aged a day. The rote tasks of any information-intensive job can be automated. It doesn’t matter if you are a doctor, lawyer, architect, reporter, or even programmer: The robot takeover will be epic. (Wired)

Cannabis may make you remember things that never happened: Newer THC research on false-memory formation. Studies show THC can influence multiple stages of memory formation, shaping not just what we remember—but how accurately we remember it. As legalization expands, the basic neuroscience is finally catching up. (National Geographic)

Brain scans reveal 3 ADHD subtypes, including a more extreme form: Researchers identified a more severe presentation of the condition marked by emotional dysregulation. New imaging research argues ADHD isn’t one thing but at least three — with treatment implications. Useful science journalism, low on hype. (Washington Post)

Netflix’s ‘Lord of the Flies’ Adaptation Is a Harrowing Watch With a Stellar Young Cast: TV Review. Originally aired by the BBC before coming to Netflix in the U.S., the four-episode series doesn’t make any major changes to Golding’s potent allegory for the thin line separating civilization from savagery. A grimly faithful update of Golding. The young cast is the reason to watch — and the reason it’s hard to. (Variety)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this past weekend with Lawrence Calcano, CEO and Chairman of iCapital, The firm is a fintech platform built to be the OS for alternative investments and complex products for financial advisors, wealth managers, and banks. The firm has over $1.2 trillion in active global assets on platform across 2,455 funds used by 123,ooo financial professionals.

 

Name changes as a bubble symptom

Source: Acadian

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Wednesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

There Needs To Be A Stronger European Element In NATO, Says Starmer

Zero Hedge -

There Needs To Be A Stronger European Element In NATO, Says Starmer

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said on May 4 that there needs to be a stronger European element in NATO, as the United States reconsiders its relationship with the defense alliance and pivots toward other security priorities domestically and globally.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the Elysee Palace in Paris on Jan 6, 2026. Ludovic Marin/AP

Starmer acknowledged during a panel discussion at the European Political Community summit in Yerevan, Armenia, that, in terms of defense and security, Europe has “got behind over many years, now.”

We’re not where we need to be,” he said.

The British prime minister alluded to the impact of the Ukraine–Russia war and, more recently, the Iran conflict on global security and economic stability, saying that Europe, especially, had to come together around these issues.

“There needs to be a stronger European element in NATO. I have no doubt about that,” he said.

Starmer said that while there needed to be a stronger European element in defense and security, “we’ve been behind the curve for too long: over dependencies, over reliance, and assumptions about the world that we live in—they’ve gone.”

“We now need to lead out of this, and we need to do it at pace because these impacts are real,” Starmer said.

“The alliances that are under tension are real, and how we, as a group of leaders, respond now will likely define what goes on for many years—arguably for a generation.”

US Reorients Defense Priorities

U.S. President Donald Trump has long maintained that Europe should rely less on the United States for its security and that European NATO allies should increase their defense spending. This approach was formally accepted by NATO when, in June 2025, allies agreed to raise defense spending targets from 2 percent of gross domestic product to 5 percent by 2035.

The United States has also reoriented its defense and security priorities.

The Pentagon on Jan. 23 released its National Defense Strategy, which outlines the U.S. plan to prioritize homeland defense, including by “defending America’s interests throughout the Western Hemisphere,” according to the document.

It also said the United States would encourage partners in other parts of the world, including Europe, to take primary responsibility for their own defense “with critical but limited support from U.S. forces.”

Tension Over Support in Iran Conflict

In recent weeks, Trump has expressed frustration with the lack of support from NATO allies during the Iran war, prompting him to consider pulling out of the alliance.

Trump told British newspaper The Telegraph in an interview published on April 1 that his request for assistance in the Strait of Hormuz was a test that allies did not pass.

The president’s remarks followed similar comments from Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Rubio said on March 30 that one of the benefits of U.S. membership in the alliance is that it gives Washington access to station troops, aircraft, and arms in other parts of the world—including much of Europe.

However, during Operation Epic Fury, “we have countries like Spain, a NATO member that we are pledged to defend, denying us the use of their airspace and bragging about it, denying us the use of our—of their bases,” Rubio said, adding that “there are other countries that have done that as well.”

Rubio said that while he supported NATO, his backing of the alliance was based on the assumption that there are reciprocal arrangements.

“But if NATO is just about us defending Europe if they’re attacked, but then denying us basing rights when we need them, that’s not a very good arrangement,” he said.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte delivers a speech at Aselsan Defence company as part of his official visit to Turkey, in Ankara on April 22, 2026. Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images

This week, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said that NATO members had received Trump’s message about agreements allowing the United States to access European bases.

Yes, ​there has been some disappointment from the U.S. side, but Europeans have listened,” Rutte told reporters at the same European Political Community summit in ​Armenia on May 4.

“They are now making sure that all the bilateral ​basing agreements are being implemented.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 06:30

Carbon Neutral, Speech Negative: Amsterdam Bans Ads Featuring Meat & Fossil Fuels

Zero Hedge -

Carbon Neutral, Speech Negative: Amsterdam Bans Ads Featuring Meat & Fossil Fuels

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

In The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage,” I write about how censorship often becomes an insatiable appetite once countries go down the road of speech regulation. There is no better example than the Dutch and their recent ban on public ads for meat and fossil fuels. Activists have imposed similar limitations on advertising for products in the United States, from alcohol to tobacco. However, the Dutch law reflects how this tendency can metastasize into shielding citizens from unhealthy choices or influences.

It appears that Dutch painters such as Pieter Aertsen (with his work A Meat Stall with the Holy Family Giving Alms, above) were promoting harmful imagery in their work. As for Rembrandt’s “Slaughtered Ox,” the Dutch master is now little more than a climate change denier.

Starting on May 1, the ban on such images became part of Amsterdam’s push to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. While purportedly neutral on carbon, it is manifestly negative on free speech.

As with other anti-free speech measures in Europe, this push again came from the left. The GreenLeft Party’s Anneke Veenhoff explained “I mean, if you want to be leading in climate policies and you rent out your walls to exactly the opposite, then what are you doing?”

The answer is engaging in free speech.

This is, of course, commercial speech, which is often subject to a lower level of protection. However, this shows the danger of using the differential standard to target products or industries viewed as unhealthy or ill-advised for consumers.

In Amsterdam, the ban will cover industries such as airlines, including KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, one of the largest employers and revenue generators in the country.

Notably, activists compare this to cigarette advertising bans, confirming the very slippery slope danger that those companies raised when they were targeted.

Hannah Prins, a paralegal at Advocates for the Future, is quoted as saying, “I don’t think it’s normal to see murdered animals on billboards. So I think it’s very good that that’s going to change.”

Other Dutch cities are now following suit, including Haarlem, Utrecht, and Nijmegen.

Of course, prostitutes still advertise live in Amsterdam and marijuana is a major industry for tourists.

If you want drugs, there are ample choices.

However, if you want a steak, you will have to rely on word-of-mouth directions.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 05:00

Industry Leaders Warn Chinese EV Imports Will Undercut Canada's Auto Sector, Bring Major Security Risks

Zero Hedge -

Industry Leaders Warn Chinese EV Imports Will Undercut Canada's Auto Sector, Bring Major Security Risks

Authored by Paul Rowan Brian via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A number of industry leaders and policy experts are warning that the government’s permission of importing Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs) into Canada at low tariff rates will undermine Canada’s auto sector and cause a number of substantial national security risks.

Models stand next to a latest EV car from Chinese automaker BYD showcased at the Auto China 2026 in Beijing on April 25, 2026. Andy Wong/AP Photo

The warnings came in testimony before the House Committee on Industry and Technology, where the speakers said that Ottawa’s quota-based access to Chinese EV makers will make Canada vulnerable to unfair trade practices from Beijing, hollow out the country’s already-struggling auto industry, and bring along a host of security risks associated with data collection and surveillance.

“Let’s be clear, this is not the approach Canada wanted,” Michael Kovrig, head of the Global Network for Strategic Effects, said while testifying May 4 before the committee.

EV Deal

The import of Chinese-made EVs comes under the terms of an agreement between Ottawa and Beijing signed in January of this year that allows the import of up to 49,000 Chinese-made EVs in the first year at a tariff rate of 6.1 percent, down from 100 percent.

Ottawa has indicated the quota could rise to approximately 70,000 vehicles per year over the next five years.

As part of the agreement, Beijing moved to cut tariffs on Canadian agricultural exports, slashing tariffs from 84–100 percent on Canadian canola products to 15 percent and relaxing restrictions on other products including seafood and peas.

Ottawa also said it expects China will invest in the Canadian auto sector and possibly set up auto manufacturing inside Canada as part of the wider agreement.

Canada opened permits for Chinese-made EVs on March 1, under which 24,500 will be allowed until August under the 6.1 percent tariff rate. Permits are issued by Global Affairs Canada and last 60 days before expiry. Importers are required to be Canada-based automakers or agents of them, and vehicles must comply with Canadian safety standards.

Ottawa said it plans to review and potentially change how the import system works after the first six months.

‘Trifecta of Risks’

Kovrig said that allowing Chinese-made EVs into Canada causes a “trifecta of risks,” which he described as creating “structural dependence” on China, along with “unfair competition [that] erodes industrial capacity” and imposing a “systemic pressure” on government policy going forward.

“The real question is not, ‘don’t we want cheaper EVs?’” Kovrig said. “It’s whether Canada wants to be a producer in the future auto economy, or merely a consumer market for vehicles produced by China’s industrial system.”

Kovrig’s concerns were echoed by Brian Kingston, president and CEO of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association.

“There are no guardrails in this agreement to ensure a level-playing field for manufacturers that have invested in Canada, or to protect Canadians from cybersecurity risks,” Kingston told MPs.

Kingston added that demand for EVs is closely tied to government incentives rather than free-market forces, and that serious harm could be done to the North American auto supply chain.

“Demand for EVs is directly related to rebates, and we saw it when the previous federal government rebate went away, we saw demand for EVs decline quite significantly,” he said, adding that import of Chinese-made EVs “will undermine the auto sector and presents risks to the North American auto supply chain.”

Canada’s auto sector remains a major part of the economy and directly employs roughly 125,000 workers, the majority of whom are employed in Ontario. More than 90 percent of Canadian-made vehicles are exported to the United States.

Kingston also said that keeping access to the U.S. market is crucial for Canada and “there is no industry without U.S. access,” saying that opening up to Chinese imports could undermine North American integration.

In mid-January, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Canada’s deal with China was “problematic.” This was followed on Jan. 24 by U.S. President Donald Trump threatening to put 100 percent tariffs on Canadian goods in response to the deal.

Controls

Several Liberal MPs on the committee asked questions about the economic and security issues related to importing Chinese-made EVs, stating that it could help Canadian consumers access more affordable vehicles and move Canada closer to climate goals.

For her part, Liberal MP Lisa Hepfner asked whether Canada could put conditions on Chinese firms, such as on domestic labour, security, and standards, in order for them to be allowed to import the vehicles.

Kingston said such an approach won’t work.

“If you say that you have to have a local supply chain and use local unionized labour, the response from a Chinese OEM [Original Equipment Manufacturer] is, ’thanks, but no thanks,'” he said.

The moment they want more access, they will restrict our exports of canola. They'll come up with other reasons to leverage more access into the market. This is the Chinese trade playbook. You can see it in sector after sector in different countries,” he added.

Kovrig shared this view, saying that Beijing tends to use a quota as a “ratchet” to force more market access.

“What begins as a capped quota becomes a ratchet that only expands. Concentrated sectoral economic dependence also constricts federal policy-making autonomy,” he said.

“The PRC [People’s Republic of China] weaponizes technology, supply chains, and market access to coerce independence to its geopolitical agenda.”

He added that “forced labour” is also part of the Chinese EV supply chain and cited evidence from Sheffield Hallam University linking forced labour of China’s ethnic Uyghur population to key battery and EV production stages.

Kingston added that even if China were to build a factory in Canada, it would likely be a human rights and economic disaster.

“If they build a plant, they bring in labour from China. And as we’ve seen in Hungary, the conditions have been characterized as slave-like conditions,” he said, referring to a Chinese-operated factory in Hungary.

Benefits of EVs

Several industry leaders who testified before the committee said EVs would be a net positive for Canada.

Jeff Turner, director of Mobility at Dunsky Energy and Climate Advisors, said EVs would help Canadians in various ways, including by bringing “almost $2,000 per year in fuel savings per household and reductions of GHG emissions and other emissions that have significant health impacts for Canadians.”

Cherith Sinasac of the Electro-Canada Foundation also emphasized her view of the positive role that EVs could have and said their origin is much less important than infrastructure readiness.

Canada needs a strong long-term EV charging infrastructure strategy,” she said, adding that there must be a coordinated investment strategy by provinces and economic sectors.

“EVs and their battery storage have the potential to be a national energy asset for our grid,” Sinasac said.

Security Risks

Kingston and Kovrig both said that in addition to economic damage, bringing in Chinese-made EVs could pose security risks, including potential data access concerns and dangers to national security.

“China’s 2017 National Intelligence law compels any Chinese firm, including from overseas operations, to share data with Beijing on demand,” Kovrig said. “There’s no judicial review and no challenge mechanism.”

Kovrig described Chinese-made EVs as “a rolling computer with cameras” that are “state-linked data platforms.”

This echoed similar concerns from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who stated his opposition to allowing Chinese-made EVs into Canada this past January, writing on X that such vehicles “function like roving surveillance systems on our streets [and] should not be allowed in Canada - collecting data, tracking Canadians and exposing us to a foreign regime.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 22:35

Figure CEO Says Humanoid Robots Could Soon Enter Homes For $600 A Month

Zero Hedge -

Figure CEO Says Humanoid Robots Could Soon Enter Homes For $600 A Month

Figure's CEO told Sourcery's Molly O'Shea that the humanoid robotics company is preparing for a "near-term" push to bring humanoid robots into homes, where they would perform basic household tasks under a consumer subscription model that could cost "hundreds per month," similar to a car lease.

Molly O'Shea asked Figure CEO Brett Adcock:

"In the near term, what do you see as the first commercial application for these robots? Like, is it gonna be in the home? Is it gonna be in the factory?"

Adcock responded:

"In the near term, we're gonna be selling these into the home. So you can lease a Figure 03 for something like $600 a month."

He continued:

"Yeah. You can plug it into a wall outlet, and it'll go to its dock and charge. I want it to do the laundry every day, dishes every day, and tidy the house multiple times a day. That's what I want."

Adcock posted a chart on Threads showing, he said, "Humanoid robots manufactured at Figure by month," revealing a clear production ramp.

However, the chart lacked a Y-axis, leaving the actual shipment numbers unclear.

Forbes pointed out that shipments may have climbed from roughly 60 units in February to 120 in March and 240 in April. However, those shipment numbers remain far below China's Agibot, which reportedly shipped 5,000 humanoids over three months.

Our latest note on the humanoid robot space, including UBS's delivery estimates, is available here.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 22:10

The Golden State Has Fallen: Welcome To The Islamic Republic Of California

Zero Hedge -

The Golden State Has Fallen: Welcome To The Islamic Republic Of California

Authored by Rabbi Michael Barclay via American Greatness,

On April 8, the California Assembly Committee on Public Employment and Retirement voted 19–0 to adopt AB2017, followed on April 22 by the California Assembly Committee on Appropriations, which voted 7–0 to adopt the bill. And with those votes, all that is left for this to become California law is the passing of it by the State Assembly and Senate and approval by the governor.

And with it, the state of California will no longer exist as we know it, but will become the Islamic Republic of California.

Introduced by California Assemblyman Matt Haney (D-San Francisco 17th District) at the behest of CAIR, the bill seeks to officially recognize the Islamic holidays of Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha as California state holidays.

There are no holidays from other religions that are recognized as state holidays in California.

Rosh Hashanah, Yom Kippur, Ash Wednesday, Good Friday, and Epiphany are all extremely important holidays in Judaism and Christianity.

But none of them are recognized as California state holidays.

But according to Haney and the California legislature, apparently, Islamic holidays are much more important to the state than either Judaism or Christianity.

This bill is clearly unconstitutional, as it is in direct contradiction to the Establishment Clause of the First Amendment: “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion or prohibiting the free exercise thereof . . .”

By placing two Islamic holidays as official state holidays, they are respecting the establishment of a specific religion. But the problem is greater than just their violation of the Constitution in attempting to pass this bill.

The holidays themselves, Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha, are expressions and manifestations of the very worst aspects of Islam.

Eid al-Fitr marks the end of the Islamic month of Ramadan and is the penultimate celebration of the month and its meanings. Ramadan is the month-long holiday commemorating Mohammed’s first vision in 610 CE, in which he supposedly was visited by the angel Gabriel (named Jibril in Arabic) in a cave near Mecca and given a revelation that ultimately became the Quran. It is a month of fasting and a national holiday in countries such as Iran, Turkey, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other Muslim theocracies.

It is also traditionally the month of war in Islam. Although war is forbidden in the Quran during four other months (the 1st, 7th, 11th, and 12th), it is not only allowed during Ramadan; it has historically been encouraged to be a month of initiating war against “infidels.” The Yom Kippur War against Israel in 1973 was started by the Arabs during Ramadan. Three years ago, Ismail Haniyeh, who was considered the political leader of Hamas (and who lived in Qatar until killed in July of 2024 and had a net worth of over two billion dollars), called for all Arabs to attack Israel during Ramadan and to siege and blockade the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem and have continual mass riots there. Ramadan, going back to Mohammed himself, is the time to start wars on non-Muslims and is a source of Islamic pride as the time to forcefully convert the world to Islam. The Nusra Front, al-Qaeda’s official arm in Syria, has even described Ramadan as “a month of conquests.

Some historical examples of the Islamic intention during Ramadan include the Battle of Badr, a victory led by Mohammed himself in the second Ramadan; the conquest of Mecca, 6 years after Badr; the war for Andalusia in 711 CE; the Battle of Ain Jalut against the Mongols; and the Battle of Hattin during the Crusades.

And that’s just in the first 200 years of Islamic history.

But Matt Haney and the California Legislature want to make this holiday, which is about military victory over non-Muslims, into an official state holiday!

And then there is the second Islamic holiday that they want to make an official state holiday: Eid al-Adha, the “Feast of the Sacrifice.” This is a holiday about being willing to violently sacrifice and kill if it is commanded by Allah. It includes throwing stones at a wall to symbolize the willingness to fight for the “will of God” by stoning Satan and exemplifies the observant Islamic belief in stoning when “required.” Animals are also sacrificed as part of this holiday’s celebration. And this is not a small sacrifice of one chicken for an entire community, but rather, the expectation is that each Muslim will perform animal sacrifices.

In Bangladesh, 13 million animals are sacrificed each year; in Pakistan, more than nine million; and globally, it is estimated that approximately 50 million animals are sacrificed each year for this Islamic holiday.

Each year, this holiday causes the death of 50 million animals and encourages the practice of stoning anything that is contradictory to the Quran, Hadith, and Islamic theology. And this is the holiday that Haney and his Democratic colleagues in the California State Legislature want to make into an official state holiday.

War, stoning, and animal sacrifice—these are the values that have been unanimously approved by the committee, and are on track to becoming approved by the California government.

Yom Kippur is a Jewish holiday about the value of being self-reflective and atoning for our personal sins. Epiphany is a Christian holiday celebrating the baptism of Jesus; Good Friday deepens the Christian faith as it honors the sacrifice of Jesus on the cross for all of humanity; and Ash Wednesday reminds Christians of the journey of Jesus during Lent that leads to the Resurrection on Easter. Atonement, spiritual awareness, faith in God: these are values that the State of California rejects as holidays while honoring the Islamic values of war and death.

With the passing of this bill, which is not certain but is highly likely, California will officially have gone off the cliff, rejecting Western civilization in favor of officially adopting Islamic practices and values.

Rest in peace, California. We will miss you.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 21:45

US Intelligence Only Sees Limited Additional Damage To Iran Nuclear Program Since Last June

Zero Hedge -

US Intelligence Only Sees Limited Additional Damage To Iran Nuclear Program Since Last June

A widely circulating fresh report in Reuters has raised eyebrows and serious questions related to the effectiveness of the 38-day aerial campaign which saw US-Israel bombs unleashed in the many thousands (combined: some 20,000+ munitions expended) on the Islamic Republic.

"US intelligence assessments indicate that the time Iran would need to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer, when analysts estimated that a US-Israeli attack had pushed back the timeline to up to a year, according to three sources familiar with the matter," the report lays out.

"The assessments of Tehran's nuclear program remain broadly unchanged even after two months of a war that US President Donald Trump launched in part to stop the Islamic Republic from developing a nuclear bomb," it continues.

via Fox

The Israelis are believed to have done most of the direct targeting of Iranian nuclear facilities in the late February through April air campaign. This after already since last June, the White House insisted Iran's nuclear program was 'obliterated'.

Again, one wonders what nearly 40 days of record-levels of bombardment of Iranian cities and military sites actually accomplished in terms of degrading Iran's nuclear enrichment capability - which has emerged as the primary US goal (stalled negotiations have centered on the demand that Tehran given up its nuclear material). It seems the needle may have hardly moved in terms of degrading Iranian nuke sites since last June?

The Reuters report gives the following additional conclusion: "The unchanged timeline suggests that significantly impeding Tehran’s nuclear program may require destroying or removing Iran’s remaining stockpile of highly enriched uranium, or HEU."

And that of course brings the situation back to the square one dilemma of whether to launch ground operations to recover what Trump calls the 'nuclear dust' - which further raises the prospect of utter disaster and endless quagmire (and there are signs of quagmire already, even without ground forces).

In shifting from 'Epic Fury' to 'Project Freedom' - the US administration seems to want to find a way out of this without a protracted ground war, which would mean serious losses in blood and treasure. The below is the official latest White House position:

While Operation ⁠Midnight Hammer obliterated Iran’s nuclear facilities, Operation Epic Fury built on this success by decimating Iran’s defense industrial base that they ‌once leveraged as a protective shield around their pursuit of a nuclear weapon,” said White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales, referring ‌to the June operation and the latest war that began in February.

"President Trump has long been clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon – and he does not bluff."

But Iran has countered that it considers its enriched uranium stockpile a matter of national sovereignty, and will 'never' allow it to be transferred outside the country.

Next round of US-Israeli bombing being planned?

Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei two weeks ago denied reports at the time which said Tehran had agreed to transfer its highly enriched uranium abroad, saying "enriched uranium is sacred to us, as is Iranian soil." The Iranians have since repeatedly made clear that the issue is a non-starter, and wants to focus talks on opening Hormuz and ending the war.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 19:40

How A Musk Victory Vs. Altman Would Reset America's AI Roadmap

Zero Hedge -

How A Musk Victory Vs. Altman Would Reset America's AI Roadmap

A courtroom victory for Elon Musk in his high-stakes federal trial against Sam Altman and OpenAI would deliver one of the most disruptive blows to the artificial intelligence sector in its brief but explosive history - potentially forcing the $850-billion-plus company to unwind its for-profit empire, ousting its top leaders, and handing Musk a symbolic and financial hammer to reshape the global race for AGI while weakening one of its fiercest competitors.

The case is now being argued in a federal courtroom in Oakland, before Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers. The trial opened on April 28 and entered its second week on Monday, when OpenAI president Greg Brockman took the stand and confirmed his personal stake in the company is worth roughly $30 billion. Musk's counsel returned to the figure more than a dozen times in two hours of questioning.

The Case

Musk co-founded OpenAI in late 2015 as a nonprofit and contributed roughly $38 million in its early years. He left the board in 2018. The following year, OpenAI created a capped-profit subsidiary to attract the capital that frontier AI now requires; Microsoft has since invested more than $13 billion. ChatGPT launched in November 2022. By 2025, OpenAI was preparing for what would have been one of the largest initial public offerings in history.

Musk sued in 2024. The original complaint contained twenty-six claims; only two survive - breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment - while the fraud claims were dismissed before trial. Microsoft is named as a co-defendant for allegedly aiding and abetting the breach, a detail often elided in summary coverage.

The remedies sought are unusually sweeping. Musk wants OpenAI's for-profit structure unwound and its assets returned to the nonprofit foundation. He wants Sam Altman and Brockman removed from leadership. And he is seeking up to $150 billion in damages from OpenAI and Microsoft combined, with any award flowing directly to OpenAI's charitable arm rather than to Musk personally.

Structure of the Trial

Judge Gonzalez Rogers has bifurcated the proceedings into a liability phase, expected to conclude around May 21, and a separate remedies phase that would follow only if the defendants are found at fault. A nine-person jury sits during liability alone, and its verdict is advisory. Structural remedies - including any order to dissolve the for-profit subsidiary - fall solely to the judge.

This procedural detail matters more than it may appear. Coverage that casts the jury as the decisive actor misreads the case. The jury can shape narrative momentum and offer a finding the judge may weigh, but it cannot order OpenAI to unwind anything. Whatever the verdict, Gonzalez Rogers writes the remedy.

What a Musk Win Would Actually Mean

Setting aside the $150 billion headline - which is a ceiling, not a floor, and is divided across defendants - three concrete consequences would follow a substantive ruling against OpenAI.

The first is restructuring. A finding that the 2019 capped-profit conversion and its 2025 successor breached a charitable trust would, at minimum, force a reorganization placing the nonprofit foundation back in unambiguous control. The IPO would be delayed indefinitely, if not foreclosed. Investor returns would be capped or rewritten. Microsoft's roughly $13 billion stake, and the larger commitments that followed from Amazon, SoftBank, and Nvidia, would all face revaluation.

The second is leadership. Musk's complaint seeks the removal of Altman and Brockman. Whether the court orders that remedy in full is uncertain; partial governance reform is the likelier outcome. Either way, the result would be destabilizing for an organization whose competitive position rests substantially on the people at the top of it.

The third is precedent, and it may prove the most durable. A ruling for Musk would establish that nonprofit-to-commercial transitions in American technology can be reversed years after the fact, once the entity has grown large enough to be worth reversing. Founders, donors, and investors in mission-driven labs would have to reckon with a previously hypothetical risk: that the structure they signed up for is the structure they will be held to, indefinitely.

The Defense

OpenAI's response, articulated by lead counsel William Savitt, is that Musk himself supported a for-profit restructuring as early as 2017 - as long as he was placed in charge of it. When the other founders declined, he left, predicted the company's failure, and later launched a competitor. The obvious angle here is that the lawsuit is a delayed instrument of competitive harm rather than a vindication of charitable principle.

The defense will lean on contemporaneous evidence: Musk's own emails proposing for-profit structures; his instruction to associates to register a for-profit corporation in OpenAI's name; and Brockman's private journal, which Musk's team has used to suggest financial motive but which also records the founders' resistance to handing OpenAI to Musk.

What Remains

Several witnesses are still to come. Altman has not yet testified. Microsoft chief executive Satya Nadella is expected. Stuart Russell, the Berkeley computer scientist, will appear as Musk's expert on AI risk; the judge has already declined a request from Musk's counsel that Russell be permitted to range beyond his written report into extinction scenarios.

Two days before the trial began, Musk texted Brockman to gauge interest in settlement. When Brockman proposed mutual dismissal, Musk replied that he and Altman would be the most hated men in America by week's end. The judge declined to admit the exchange. No settlement has materialized.

The trial is expected to run another two to three weeks. The remedies phase, if it comes, will follow.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 18:00

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