Individual Economists

Pfizer mRNA Influenza Vaccine 'Failed' In Clinical Trial Among Seniors: FDA Commissioner

Zero Hedge -

Pfizer mRNA Influenza Vaccine 'Failed' In Clinical Trial Among Seniors: FDA Commissioner

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Pfizer’s experimental influenza vaccine will not receive approval absent new data proving that it protects seniors against the flu, the commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration suggested in a new interview.

A woman wears a facemask as she walks by the Pfizer world headquarters in New York City on Nov. 9, 2020. (Photo by Kena Betancur / AFP) Photo by KENA BETANCUR/AFP via Getty Images

The messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) shot “failed in seniors,” Dr. Marty Makary, the FDA commissioner, said during an appearance on Nov. 29 on Fox News.

The trial showed zero benefit,” he said.

“We’re not just going to rubber-stamp new products that don’t work, that fail in a clinical trial. It makes a mockery of science if we’re just going to rubber-stamp things with no data.”

Pfizer’s media team did not respond to a request for comment.

The experimental mRNA shot performed better in a trial than an already-approved vaccine from a different company among healthy people aged 18 to 64, researchers with Pfizer and other organizations said in a recent paper published by the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM).

The researchers did not mention that among vaccinated seniors, or people aged 65 and older, in the same trial, 0.5 percent suffered influenza-like illness and had laboratory-confirmed influenza cases. That was the same percentage as recipients of a licensed vaccine.

Many more seniors—68.7 percent—reported adverse reactions within seven days of Pfizer vaccination compared with just 25.8 percent of recipients of the existing vaccine, the results also showed.

The results from the seniors in the trial were posted to ClinicalTrials.gov earlier this year and highlighted following publication of the paper by independent journalists and members of the panel that advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on vaccines, including Retsef Levi, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

I find this to be a major integrity failure in the peer-review process. The NEJM editorial board should provide a clear explanation how this failure has occurred and ... require the authors to correct the current articles and report on the entire results of the trial,” Levi told The Epoch Times in an email.

“The study authors are best able to answer your question,” a spokesperson for the journal told The Epoch Times in an email when asked why the results for seniors were not included in the paper.

The study’s corresponding author, who works for Pfizer, did not return an inquiry.

Makary’s comments came after Dr. Vinay Prasad, who heads the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, wrote in a memorandum that officials will be revising the current framework for influenza vaccines, which he called “an evidence-based catastrophe of low-quality evidence, poor surrogate assays, and uncertain vaccine effectiveness measured in case-control studies with poor methods.” He indicated that more details would be forthcoming after internal conversations.

The current framework features annual approvals of updated shots that target strains projected to circulate.

The FDA says on its website on a page updated in 2024 that FDA-approved flu vaccines “are safe and effective.” Officials with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that the vaccines’ effectiveness against influenza since 2009 have ranged from 19 percent to 60 percent.

Prasad also said that for most new vaccines, officials will be requiring randomized trials that provide evidence of efficacy based on clinical endpoints, which can include prevention of disease.

Dr. Robert Malone, who leads the CDC advisory panel’s influenza workgroup, told The Epoch Times that the memo means “the entire influenza vaccine, annual vaccination enterprise is now subject to major disruption.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 13:40

Former EU Foreign Policy Chief Arrested In Fraud Investigation, Homes & Offices Raided

Zero Hedge -

Former EU Foreign Policy Chief Arrested In Fraud Investigation, Homes & Offices Raided

Former European Commission vice-president and ex-head of the EU's foreign service, Federica Mogherini, has been detained as Belgian authorities investigate alleged misuse of European Union funds, Belgian and French media reports have revealed Tuesday.

Homes and offices are reportedly being raided in connection, though no formal charges were immediately made public for Mogherini. The action includes Belgian police searches at the Brussels headquarters of the European External Action Service (EEAS), which Mogherini led for a half-decade, from 2014 to 2019.

Police were also seen searching offices at the College of Europe in Bruges, where she has served as rector since 2020. The probe is reportedly related to her long stint overseeing the financing of the what serves as an academy for young diplomats.

Federica Mogherini, then head of European Union diplomacy, in 2019. AFP

Another College of Europe employee who serves in an executive office was also detained, as well as top European Commission official Stefano Sannino, who was previously the EEAS secretary-general under Mogherini.

Police have recovered documents said to be related to the three detained officials' potentially criminal activities, based on suspicion of procurement fraud, corruption, and conflicts of interest.

Belgian police confirmed an investigation was ongoing "to assess whether any criminal offences have occurred”, adding: “All persons are presumed innocent until proven guilty by the competent Belgian courts of law."

The case may center on the college's purchase of a building and involves several millions of euros. According to details in The Guardian:

The case is an unprecedented investigation by the European public prosecutor’s office (EPPO), the only EU body that handles criminal cases, which was launched in 2021 to combat cross-border fraud involving EU funds. The EPPO can bring criminal cases in courts in any of the 24 EU member states that have joined it, including Belgium.

The case centres on whether the College of Europe and or its representatives were informed in advance about the tender for a training programme for young diplomats before the official launch of the bidding process.

The EPPO said it had “strong suspicions” that the rules on fair competition had been breached and that confidential information had been shared with one of the candidates taking part in the tender. The College of Europe in Bruges was awarded a contract to run the European Union Diplomatic Academy in 2021-22 after a decision from the EU foreign service. The EPPO said immunity of the three suspects had been lifted at its request.

The arrested officials are suspected of trading in confidential information and breaching fair competition laws.

Via Wiki Commons

Another source reviewing the probe details the following:

The probe reportedly focuses on the college’s €3.2 million ($3.7 million) purchase of a building on Spanjaardstraat in Bruges, in 2022, shortly before receiving €654,000 in funding from the EEAS. Authorities suspect the institution may have had access to confidential information, undermining fair competition. 

An EU diplomat has been cited in The Guardian praising the European public prosecutor’s office as it "is not afraid to go after big names." The diplomat added: "If the allegations are true, they should be severely punished to send a clear message that any type of corruption is not tolerable in the EU."

As for the College of Europe, many of its graduates go on to senior roles within European institutions and political bodies. All of this is certain to spur on suspicion among sectors of the general public that EU elite circles could be a hotbed for corruption, given billions in public funds are constantly doled out and transferred this way and that.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 13:00

House Republicans Officially Confirm "Operation Choke Point 2.0" Targeted Bitcoin And Crypto Firms

Zero Hedge -

House Republicans Officially Confirm "Operation Choke Point 2.0" Targeted Bitcoin And Crypto Firms

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee have released a 50-page report detailing what they describe as a systematic debanking effort by Biden-era regulators, dubbed “Operation Chokepoint 2.0.” 

While many of the findings — such as the Fed, FDIC, and OCC pressuring banks away from crypto through informal guidance, and the SEC’s “enforce first, make rules never” approach — were previously known, the report now places them squarely in the Congressional record.

The report identifies at least 30 entities that were effectively “debanked” through informal regulatory guidance and supervisory pressure. These businesses, the Committee claims, were forced out of the U.S. banking system without formal enforcement actions.

Government coercion, biased enforcement, and private pressure — all while denying

According to the document, the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) employed a range of tactics to influence bank behavior. 

These included “non-objection” letters, “pause” letters, and other forms of informal guidance designed to make banks hesitant to engage with crypto companies.

Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) allegedly adopted a policy of “enforce first, make rules never,” using selective enforcement rather than clear regulatory frameworks to restrict digital-asset activity. 

The report highlights SAB 121, an SEC guidance that effectively blocked banks from offering custody services for crypto assets.

The report paints a picture of regulators publicly denying any bias against digital assets, while privately pressuring banks to sever ties with crypto firms. The report reads that while regulators consistently denied discouraging digital-asset activity, the evidence collected by the Committee shows a pattern of private pressure and informal coercion. 

Committee Republicans argue these actions represent a revival of Operation Choke Point, a controversial program from the early 2010s that used regulatory and reputational pressure to discourage banks from serving certain high-risk industries. 

The report asserts that the tactics used against crypto firms echo the same methods: informal guidance, opaque supervisory expectations, and reputational risk warnings.

“The lack of clear rules combined with aggressive enforcement has created a chilling effect on the digital-asset sector,” said a Committee spokesperson. “Legitimate American businesses were forced to move abroad or shut down, not because of wrongdoing, but because of regulatory overreach.”

Crypto firms struggled to keep bank accounts

The report includes anecdotal accounts of firms that struggled to maintain bank accounts despite following all applicable laws.

One executive described repeated requests for documentation, sudden account closures, and vague warnings from compliance officers citing regulatory “uncertainty.” 

Another recounted being effectively cut off from the U.S. banking system after submitting a routine regulatory filing.

Republicans on the Committee argue that this environment has stifled innovation and driven financial activity offshore.

They call on Congress and the Biden administration to reverse these policies, provide explicit guidance, and ensure that legitimate crypto firms can access banking services without fear of arbitrary pressure.

The Committee’s full report is available in full on the House Financial Services Committee website.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 12:45

DHS: Nearly 7000 Predatory Migrants Set Free From NYC Jails Since January

Zero Hedge -

DHS: Nearly 7000 Predatory Migrants Set Free From NYC Jails Since January

The Department of Homeland Security has released a statement admonishing NYC officials after cataloging nearly 7000 illegal migrants that have been released from holding facilities instead of retaining them for ICE arrest.  

New York’s failure to honor ICE detainers has resulted in the release of 6,947 criminal illegal aliens since January 20th. The crimes of these aliens include 29 homicides, 2,509 assaults, 199 burglaries, 305 robberies, 392 dangerous drugs offenses, 300 weapons offenses, and 207 sexual predatory offenses.  The predators were released back on the streets without any notification to ICE, a trend which has led to many violent repeat offenses in the past.  

Furthermore, DHS reports that New York is holding another 7113 illegals with dangerous criminal backgrounds and they are refusing to release the prisoners into ICE custody.  The crimes of these aliens include 148 homicides, 717 assaults, 134 burglaries, 106 robberies, 235 dangerous drugs offenses, 152 weapons offenses, and 260 sexual predatory offenses.  DHS officials fear that the criminals will also be set free in the near future.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Director Todd Lyons sent a letter to New York Attorney General Letitia James calling on her to put the safety of Americans first and honor ICE arrest detainers.  

“Attorney General James and her fellow New York Sanctuary politicians are releasing murderers, terrorists, and sexual predators back into our neighborhoods and putting American lives at risk,” said Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin. “We are calling on Letitia James to stop this dangerous derangement and commit to honoring the ICE arrest detainers of the more than 7,000 criminal illegal aliens in New York’s custody. It is common sense. Criminal illegal aliens should not be released back onto our streets to terrorize more innocent Americans.”

The stupidity of open borders activism becomes apparent when examining the real world consequences of unrestricted and unvetted immigration.

Prominent examples of criminal migrants released by sanctuary cities include José Antonio Ibarra, a Venezuelan national who entered illegally, was arrested on misdemeanor charges (shoplifting and permitting an unlicensed person to drive). Local authorities in Athens, GA did not notify ICE despite a detainer request.  Ibarra later murdered 22-year-old nursing student Laken Riley during her jog on the University of Georgia campus, beating her to death. 

Victor Antonio Martinez-Hernandez, a Salvadoran national with prior gang ties, was arrested in El Salvador for an unrelated assault but fled to the U.S. After a minor arrest in Maryland, local officials released him without ICE involvement due to limited sanctuary cooperation.  Martinez-Hernandez raped and murdered 37-year-old mother of five Rachel Morin while she was jogging on a trail in Bel Air, Maryland.

Victor Aureliano Martinez Ramirez, a Mexican national with prior arrests for drug and sexual assault charges (reduced to misdemeanor), was released from Santa Barbara County Jail despite an ICE detainer.  Five days post-release, Martinez Ramirez allegedly raped, tortured, and murdered 64-year-old Marilyn Pharis in her home, stabbing her multiple times. He faces numerous charges along with a co-defendant, Jose Fernando Villagomez. 

Franklin Jose Peña Ramos (Venezuelan) and Johan Jose Rangel Ayala (Venezuelan) were apprehended at the border in March 2024, released with Notices to Appear under CBP's parole program, and not detained further despite initial screening. Houston's limited sanctuary practices allowed community release without ICE follow-up.

In June 2024, the duo allegedly bound, raped, and drowned 12-year-old Jocelyn Nungaray under a bridge.  The list of incidents involving migrants released by Democrats goes on and on.

The track record is a horrific reminder that leftist officials are willing to double down on their ideology even if it results in brutality against their own citizenry.  They do not care.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 12:00

Is the Future still Bright?

Calculated Risk -

It was almost thirteen years ago when I wrote "The Future's so Bright …" I noted that I was the most optimistic since the '90s, and that things would only get better.

I pointed out that housing starts would increase significantly over the next several years, that state and local governments would start hiring again, that the budget deficit would decline sharply, and that household deleveraging was nearing and an end.

As I noted in January 2013: "There are several tailwinds for the economy, and the headwinds (like household deleveraging) are mostly subsiding."

Now these tailwinds have subsided. The significant growth for housing starts, new home sales and vehicle sales, is behind us.

With the exception of data centers, commercial real estate is struggling, and some sectors - like hotels - are in recession.  The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has been in contraction for 35 of the last 37 months, suggesting a slowdown in CRE investment well into 2026.
And the Federal budget deficit is increasing sharply.

Fortunately the unemployment rate is still historically fairly low (but increasing), and household debt service and financial obligation ratios are low. 

I was also positive on demographics too, but unfortunately with less immigration and more prime age deaths, the demographic outlook isn't as favorable as a several years ago.

And we haven't addressed some of the longer term challenges I mentioned thirteen years ago:
There are a number of longer term challenges from rising health care expenditures, climate change, income and wealth inequality and more, but I remain very optimistic about the longer term too. There is a constant focus on the aging population, but by 2020, eight of the top ten largest cohorts (five year age groups) will be under 40, and by 2030 the top 11 cohorts are the youngest 11 cohorts. The renewing of America! And these young people are smart (less exposure to lead is a significant story), and well educated too.
Note: Here is an update on demographics through 2024.
Unfortunately recent policy choices have made the long term challenges more difficult.  But I'm still optimistic that those issues will be addressed.

I'm not currently predicting a recession (although I'm watching), and I expect further growth in 2026, but the near term future isn't as bright now.

Sam Altman Declares 'Code Red' For ChatGPT As Rivals Catch Up; Will Scale Back Advertising Plans

Zero Hedge -

Sam Altman Declares 'Code Red' For ChatGPT As Rivals Catch Up; Will Scale Back Advertising Plans

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declared a "code red" on Monday, telling employees that ChatGPT needs serious improvement in terms of user experience - including personalization features, speed, reliability, and allowing it to answer a wider range of questions.

In a companywide memo, Altman also said that OpenAI would be pushing back work on other initiatives, including advertising, AI agents for health and shopping, and a personal assistant called Pulse, the Wall Street Journal reports. And with hundreds of billions of dollars committed to future data-center investments, they need to remain on top at all costs. 

The company will now hold daily calls with the team responsible for improving the chatbot, while OpenAI's head of ChatGPT, Nick Turley, said Monday on X that the company is now focused on making GPT feel "even more intuitive and personable." 

The announcement comes days after a report in the Financial Times warning that OpenAI rivals from Google and Anthropic are catching up in terms of features and popularity. 

Three years on from the debut of its popular chatbot, the $500bn start-up is grappling with the reality of soaring data centre costs, the technical challenges of remaining at the frontier of AI and the constant battle to retain key talent.

It is also facing a resurgent Google, with the release last week of Gemini 3, Google’s latest large language model, which is considered to have leapfrogged OpenAI’s GPT-5 and achieved gains from the model training process that have eluded OpenAI in recent months.

"It’s quite a strong difference with the world we had two years ago where OpenAI was leading ahead of everyone else," Thomas Wolf, co-founder and chief science officer of open-source start-up Hugging Face told FT. "It’s a new world."

Gemini's user base has been rapidly growing since the August release of an image generator - Nano Banana. According to Google, monthly active users have also grown from 450 million in July to 650 million in October

Anthropic, meanwhile,  is also growing in popularity among business customers. 

Last month Altman told employees that OpenAI would "need to stay focused through short-term competitive pressure . . . expect the vibes out there to be rough for a bit." 

Meanwhile, OpenAI is at a disadvantage - not only are they not profitable, they have to raise money at a near-constant pace to keep their heads above water - something Google and other tech firms that fund growth with revenues don't have to worry about. OpenAI is also outspending its main startup rival, Anthropic, and needs to grow revenue to roughly $200 billion to even have a chance at turning a profit in 2030. 

Google told the Financial Times that their Big Tech group had "pushed our performance quite significantly" by training their AI models using Google's own bespoke chips. 

"Being able to connect with consumers, customers, companies, at that scale is really something that we can do because of that full stack integrated approach that we have," said Koray Kavukcuoglu, Google’s AI architect and DeepMind’s chief technology officer.

That “full stack” includes its custom tensor processing unit chips, which allowed Google to train Gemini 3 without needing to rely on the costly Nvidia chips that most of the AI industry uses. “I think we have a unique approach there,” said Kavukcuoglu.

Google “always had these muscles to flex”, said Michael Nathanson, co-founder and analyst at MoffettNathanson, an equity research firm, adding that the IO event showed that “they really managed to find their product footing”.

The pressure has definitely flipped to Sam Altman and his ability to monetise and keep all the plates spinning,” said Nathanson. -FT

As Google’s Gemini showed a potential step-change improvement vs ChatGPT, the market has found itself mis-aligned and mis-priced for that...

And now, Altman is starting to panic...  

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 11:15

Putin Says 'Ready For War' Against Europe If Attacks On Russian Tankers, Energy Continue

Zero Hedge -

Putin Says 'Ready For War' Against Europe If Attacks On Russian Tankers, Energy Continue

US envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law and unofficial diplomat Jared Kushner have been at the Kremlin on Tuesday for high-level talks with President Vladimir Putin. The Americans are presenting Trump's Ukraine peace plan in its current form after the high stakes Miami meeting with the Ukrainian delegation, which focused on ceding territory and what future boundaries might look like in the Donbass.

President Putin's public words in the context of the meeting wherein the US side is formally pitching the plan have presented an opportunity for him to lash out at Europe. If Europe starts a war with Russia, soon there will be "no one left to negotiate with" - he warned after several EU and NATO officials have lately issued hawkish words and threats.

Russia is not planning to fight European countries, but if Europe starts a war, Russia is "ready right now" - the Russian leader said.

Via The Kremlin/BBC

The Kremlin had last month issued a generally positive outlook on what it framed as genuine efforts of the Trump administration to reach peace settlement in Ukraine. Putin has previously said the now 19-point plan could be a workable basis on which to find a solution. By day's end Tuesday, the world might get a better glimpse of how this is proceeding.

There are reports of a several hours-long meeting unfolding late into the night (local time)...

But on the question of Europe, which has been largely sidelined when it comes to the US peace plan version, Putin is angry. He denounced a recent series of drone strikes on oil and gas tankers carrying Russian energy exports acts of "piracy".

He also on Tuesday made clear that European demands related to Moscow are not at all acceptable, suggesting that they are by intention an effort to prod and anger Russia. He said that "Europe only proposes unacceptable demands," according to Interfax. "They are on the side of war," he said of the Europeans.

“Russia has no intention of going to war with European countries. But if Europe wants war Russia is ready” – Putin has told journalists before meeting Witkoff and Kushner.

"Europe has withdrawn itself from the Ukrainian settlement. It has no peace agenda, and now they are hindering US efforts to achieve a settlement," Putin said additionally. "Europe is putting forward proposals for a peace plan for Ukraine that are unacceptable to Russia."

Putin calls for Western "fantasies" of imposing "strategic defeat" on Russia to end...

Importantly, he also vowed to expand strikes on Ukrainian ports, as retaliation for the some four tankers which have already been hit by Ukrainian attacks, which are believed to have had the support of Western intelligence. According to more of his words via newswires:

  • Europeans have detached from the talks themselves.
  • Attacks on tankers near Turkey are piracy.
  • Will take measures against tankers of countries that help Ukraine.
  • Will increase strikes on facilities and Ukrainian vessels.
  • If attacks continue, Russia may strike Ukraine tankers.

President Zelensky has meanwhile admitted the road ahead will be "tough" - but he's yet to outright reject the Trump-proposed plan, also knowing he could be cut off in terms of US funding and political support at any time. "Now, more than ever, there is a chance to end this war," he has has said during a Tuesday visit to Ireland.

Below is a note contextualizing where things stand via Rabobank...

Ukraine is saying there are still “tough issues” to be resolved to get to a peace deal, but the US revolver on the table may overcome them: the White House team is in Moscow to negotiate; Europeans are not at the table. That’s as Russia claimed Filipino troops are fighting in Ukraine(!); a test of its Satan II ballistic missile failed; a Chinese firm took a stake in a Russian drone maker; and Russia claimed it’s finally captured the strategic Ukrainian towns of Pokrovsk and Vovchansk.

Europe is to revamp its border-control force and told the White House it won’t accept a pardon for Putin’s war crimes in any deal - but what if the US agrees one? The WSJ says ‘Trump’s Push to End the Ukraine War Is Sowing Fresh Fear About NATO’s Future.’ That all smells like a lot more military spending for Europe, and faster than timetabled; or a split between those who see it as necessary and those who think you can defend yourself with committees and acronyms.

* * *

Things in Moscow are looking friendly so far...

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 10:45

No "Unmoved Mover", All Part Of A Now Systemic Metacrisis

Zero Hedge -

No "Unmoved Mover", All Part Of A Now Systemic Metacrisis

By Michael Every of Rabobank

"The unmoved mover" is ancient philosophy from Aristotle interpreted to mean ‘the divine’. For modern Mammon, it means a finance industry with siloed sector coverage grudgingly agreeing that the US is primus inter pares. But not always. Yesterday, markets moved a lot: crypto crumbled, again; stocks were down; and bond yields were up, as were silver and copper. What moved them most was perhaps Japan, not the US.

If you started working in markets after the late 90s, all you’ve known until recently is Japanese low/deflation and ultra-low or negative yields. Not anymore. Japanese CPI is around 3% and has been there for over three years: “transitory”? The 2-year JGB yields is 1.02%, as in 2008; the 10-year yield is 1.88%; and the 30-year is 3.40%, the highest this century and well into the previous. This is leading global bond yields higher just as ‘Japanification’ used to depress yields.

The BOJ is indicating it’s leaning towards a December hike. Yet JPY is still weak given the BOJ base rate is far below the level of inflation. Worse, decades of massive JGB issuance at ultra-low yields ensures higher yields raise questions about debt sustainability; but reversing BOJ course when inflation is high would weaken JPY further, which given Japan’s dependence on imported commodities, would push inflation up even more. Bloomberg called the 10-year JGB auction this morning “a global event” – though with firmer demand than the 12-month average it didn’t meet that top billing.

Indeed, we live in a world full of global events, and most still revolve around the US: but not its monetary policy, rather its political, economic, and military statecraft.

Ukraine is saying there are still “tough issues” to be resolved to get to a peace deal, but the US revolver on the table may overcome them: the White House team is in Moscow to negotiate; Europeans are not at the table. That’s as Russia claimed Filipino troops are fighting in Ukraine(!); a test of its Satan II ballistic missile failed; a Chinese firm took a stake in a Russian drone maker; and Russia claimed it’s finally captured the strategic Ukrainian towns of Pokrovsk and Vovchansk. Europe is to revamp its border-control force and told the White House it won’t accept a pardon for Putin’s war crimes in any deal - but what if the US agrees one? The WSJ says ‘Trump’s Push to End the Ukraine War Is Sowing Fresh Fear About NATO’s Future.’ That all smells like a lot more military spending for Europe, and faster than timetabled; or a split between those who see it as necessary and those who think you can defend yourself with committees and acronyms.

In Latam, as Honduras’ presidential election vote is counted in a very tight race, Trump posted: “Looks like Honduras is trying to change the results of their Presidential Election. If they do, there will be hell to pay!” That’s after Trump had earlier named the only candidate he is prepared to work with. Welcome to the Monroe Doctrine.

Oil markets are monitoring Venezuela, where Trump has reportedly given Maduro a Friday deadline to leave the country as Caracas accuses the US of wanting to “take over its oil resources” and is seeking help from OPEC+: as Stalin asked, “How many divisions do they have?”

Elsewhere, Ukraine not only just struck another oil terminal, but may have attacked a ‘shadow fleet’ ship carrying Russian oil near Singapore. Who had ‘more global attacks on upstream commodity supply chains’ on their bingo cards? Those who listened to our 2026 Financial Markets Outlook.

Not being focused on by oil markets (yet) is Israel saying it will strike Iraq if Iran-backed militias there support Hezbollah, with whom tensions are again running high, as Israeli media also underline risks that Iran may try to attack it, for which Jerusalem is preparing a new spectrum of weapons - as the US warns Israel not to bomb Syria again, with which it’s now partnering against ISIS.

In broader geoeconomics, the Aussie spy boss warned businesses of “hacking, sabotage, and assassinations”;

The WSJ reports Chinese rare-earth dealers are finding ways to dodge Beijing’s export restrictions – is this “because markets” related to the US deepening rare earths supply chains with Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the Netherlands, the UK, Israel, the UAE, and Australia? That’s as European firms report debilitating impacts from rare earths restrictions – one saw it cost 20% of its global revenue, 40% see licensing process added two months-plus to delivery times, 38% expect significant disruption or production stoppages, 11% had to disclose sensitive IP info to get licenses, and 42% said once license is granted, there are further delays gaining customs clearance.

Japan defense firms are seeing sales boom as Tokyo eyes the end of more export curbs – which will also help JGB yields rocket (as Bloomberg says, ‘Japan’s Inflation-Proof ‘Stan Economy’ Is Booming’);

Canada is to join the EU Security Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument (again, what did Stalin say?), as the EU will axe trade perks for countries that refuse to take back failed migrants, and its CBAM carbon border tax is criticized for going easy on ‘dirty’ Chinese imports because “Brussels got its math wrong on the carbon footprint of imports from China, Brazil and the US.”;

In politics, spot the pattern: ‘Germany’s far-right AfD attempts to rebrand as real power comes within reach’ (Politico); ‘German Mittelstand in turmoil after breaking taboo on meeting far’ (FT); ‘France’s business leaders scramble to shape far right’s agenda as election looms’ (Politico); and ‘One in four male Gen Xers now support One Nation’ (AFR). Elsewhere, the head of the UK fiscal watchdog was forced to quit after a pre-Budget info leak – so perhaps now won’t have to testify to Parliament about what happened; and the UK’s new far-left Your Party saw its first conference plagued with cries of factionalism, cliques, splittists, rigged votes, and exclusionary tactics – and decided on a 20-member ruling executive rather than a party leader.

In the economy, Aussie private sector wages just soared 6% y-o-y, outpacing profits: so, not “rate cuts!” then(?) On the other hand, the US financial press warns consumers are ‘losing patience’ with high car prices and are downsizing or opting for second-hand models, as ‘Gen Z Shoppers Aren’t Spending Like Retailers Need Them To.’

In Europe, the think tank Ember claims super-grid plans are threatened by a huge power line funding gap and that “80% of the EU power system is expected to miss the 2030 interconnection target.” The WSJ is blunter and more controversial: ‘Europe’s Green Energy Rush Slashed Emissions - and Crippled the Economy’, adding, “Political consensus is cracking, industry is hobbled and high-profile projects are being postponed thanks to some of the highest electricity prices in the developed world.”

In markets, new RBNZ Governor Breman told parliamentary select committee that she would be “laser focused” on the Bank’s core mandate of low and stable inflation, and she favoured greater transparency. Excellent. Except it’s transparent that we need to ask what a laser focus on low and stable inflation means when so many factors domestic and foreign can impact on it in so many ways and monetary policy has nothing to do with most of them. Tellingly, Powell spoke today and didn’t say anything at all for markets to mull over. Should we start to get used to it(?)

Look around and see that there is no earthly unmoved mover, be it Japan, or crypto, the Mag-7, or any central bank - even the Fed. They are all just part of a now systemic metacrisis.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 10:40

Welcome To Hotel California: Democrats Push Retroactive Billionaire Tax

Zero Hedge -

Welcome To Hotel California: Democrats Push Retroactive Billionaire Tax

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

California was once known as the destination for anyone seeking a fortune, from the Gold Rush to Hollywood. The image of a line of wagon trains heading West has now been replaced by a line of U-Hauls heading anywhere but California. Unable to stem the exodus, California is again toying with retroactive taxes — targeting the wealthy regardless of whether they flee the state.

Welcome to Hotel California, “you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.”

California democrats have long faced the same dilemma of constantly tapping the wealthy to cover their deficit spending: these individuals and their wealth are mobile. They can simply leave and many are doing so. We recently discussed how California is now losing a taxpayer every minute.

Previously, the state moved to tax people who left the state. Now, the state is seeking a billionaire tax and making it retroactive. Thus, even if you were waiting to decide to leave, it is too late. You are being taxed for the prior year.

California Governor Gavin Newsom is pushing the retroactive billionaire tax targeting the roughly 220 billionaires residing in California in 2025. It signals not just desperation in the face of crippling debt and overspending but a recognition that California is chasing its highest earners out of the state.

The “2026 Billionaires Tax Act” would impose a one-time 5% tax on individual wealth exceeding $1 billion. While technically using 2026 wealth figures, it would apply to billionaires who resided in California in 2025.

So you cannot hope to flee… at least with your wealth intact.

It is a penalty for those who stayed too long hoping that rational minds would prevail in California.

The tax is a familiar tactic of many in politics who attack the wealthiest citizens as somehow ripping off the poor.

If states can do this for billionaires, it is likely to do it for those in lower tax brackets as they face the choice between financial discipline and tax increases.

As I discuss in my forthcoming book, Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution, there is a common myth that the top five percent of this country do not “pay their fair share.” However, putting that debate aside, the question is whether it will produce more revenue than it costs the state in the long run. As these politicians campaign on clipping the “fat cats” who are not paying their fair share, many are likely to follow the exodus to lower tax states with greater fiscal discipline.

The constitutionality of a retroactive tax has long been controversial. In Landgraf v. USI Film Products (1994), the Supreme Court declared “the presumption against retroactive legislation is deeply rooted in our jurisprudence… [e]lementary considerations of fairness dictate that individuals should have an opportunity to know what the law is and conform their conduct accordingly; settled expectations should not be lightly disrupted.”

Most Americans are obviously not billionaires, but see the obvious unfairness to such retroactive taxes. People are allowed to make decisions on whether they want to stay in a state and how to invest their money in light of tax and other considerations. These retroactive taxes allow a bait-and-switch for taxpayers as politicians tap wealth from prior years.

However, in United States v. Carlton (1994), the Court addressed a new estate tax deduction for selling stock in employee stock ownership plans that was included in the 1986 tax reform law. In January 1987, the IRS announced that the legislation had a flaw: it did not require a taxpayer to own the stock before dying. New legislation was passed in December 1987 with retroactive effect to the 1986 law.

The Supreme Court refused to strike down the 14 months of retroactive application. Calling the change “modest,” the Court noted that the IRS sent out a quick notice that it would seek a legislative fix, and that the law essentially corrected an unintended error. However, even that left some on the Court uneasy, and justices like Sandra Day O’Connor, Antonin Scalia, and Clarence Thomas warned against “bait-and-switch taxation.” The key was the notice and the fact that it only applied to a single year.

Some retroactive taxes have been struck down. For example, in Blodgett v. Holden, 275 U.S. 142 (1927),  a 12-year period of retroactivity was struck down as “so arbitrary and capricious as to amount to confiscation.”

The Court has left the area a mess of countervailing rationales and holdings. However, it has clearly held that retroactive taxes are not per se unconstitutional. In Welch v. Henry, 305 U.S. 134, 147 (1938), the Court upheld a retroactive tax and held that the outcome depends upon whether “retroactive application is so harsh and oppressive as to transgress the constitutional limitation.” It stressed that:

“Provided that the retroactive application of a statute is supported by a legitimate legislative purpose furthered by rational means, judgments about the wisdom of such legislation remain within the exclusive province of the legislative and executive branches . . .’

The rational basis test is difficult for a state to fail. However, California could force the Court to reexamine this area and offer more concrete protections for citizens who are retroactively fleeced by a state.

Until then, welcome to the Hotel California:

Last thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man
“We are programmed to receive
You can check out any time you like
But you can never leave”

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 10:20

Michael Burry Is (Once Again) Going To Try And Short Tesla

Zero Hedge -

Michael Burry Is (Once Again) Going To Try And Short Tesla

Michael Burry is once again taking aim at Tesla — a reminder of his high-profile 2021 short, when he bet against the stock just before it nearly doubled before dropping from its peak. 

In a new Substack post, the “Big Short” investor called Tesla “ridiculously overvalued” and argued that shareholder dilution will only worsen under Elon Musk’s newly approved $1 trillion pay package.

Burry estimated that Tesla’s stock-based compensation dilutes shareholders by roughly 3.6 percent a year, noting that the company conducts no buybacks to offset it, Yahoo Finance/Bloomberg reported.

Burry used Tesla to illustrate what he described as the “tragic algebra” of tech-sector compensation, and he took a swipe at the company’s shifting narratives: first electric vehicles, then autonomous driving, and now humanoid robots — each emphasis fading once competition arrives, he said.

He did not disclose his current position in Tesla, but the comments add to a recent string of bearish calls. Last month, Burry opened sizable put positions against Nvidia and Palantir, echoing concerns raised by fellow short seller Jim Chanos about Nvidia’s use of vendor financing.

Burry has since deregistered Scion Asset Management and moved his commentary to Substack.

Wall Street, however, has grown more upbeat on Tesla. Melius Research recently deemed the stock a “must own” based on its autonomy efforts and in-house chip development, while Stifel raised its price target and reiterated a Buy rating tied to progress in full self-driving and the robotaxi program.

Burry’s latest broadside comes nearly five years after his last disclosed Tesla wager. In May 2021, Scion held puts on 800,100 Tesla shares, a bet revealed in regulatory filings.

 Burry's first go-round in the name was tumultuous, with Tesla stock up almost double in 2021 after Burry disclosed his position.

At the time, Tesla was coming off a 700 percent surge to record highs before suffering a drawdown — a pattern Burry suggests could repeat.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 10:00

Transcript: Wilhelm Schmid, A. Lange & Söhne CEO

The Big Picture -

 

 

The transcript from this week’s MiB: A. Lange & Söhne CEO Wilhelm Schmid, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple PodcastsSpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

~~~

Barry Ritholtz: This week on an extra special live edition of Masters in Business, I’m at the Audra Newport Concourse de Elegance, and my conversation is with Wilhelm Schmidt. He is the CEO of Ang Zona, one of the finest watch companies in the world. They’re located in Glashutte, Germany.

Our conversation talked about everything from collectible timepieces to collectible cars. I found it fascinating, and I think you will also, with no further ado, my discussion with Alan’s owners, Wilhelm Schmidt. Wilhelm Schmidt, welcome to Bloomberg

Wilhelm Schmid:   Thank you so much, Barry. Thank you.

Barry Ritholtz: Thank you so much for this, for hosting this event and, and participating in our conversation. I have, I have so many things to talk to you about, but I have to start with this prestigious concourse in this spectacular setting on what could be the nicest day of the year. What is the connection between classic cars and fine mechanical time pieces?

Wilhelm Schmid:  Some mean people say me because I like cars and watches and watches and cars, but I think it’s of course more than that. You know, watchmaking is, that’s what we emphasize on and 90% of our energy will go into watchmaking. That, that’s, that’s, that’s our home turf. But I believe as a global brand, you also need to find a world that is focused on something else, but where you have sort of a common ground that you can walk on.

And about 14 years ago, we were looking for a platform where we can show the brand and where we can bring customers to entertain. And if you look at these cars, let’s start with the cars and, and look at the word concourse of elegance. So we are not in vintage cars or racing, it’s about concourse of elegance. You know, it’s about beauty, it’s about heritage, it’s about craftsmanship, it’s about design. And if you look onto the pillars on which our brand rests, it is exactly, it’s it’s history, heritage, it’s design, and it’s of course the craftsmanship. And trust me, these cars that you see here, as they were built, they were built by proper craftsmen. And even today, without proper craftsman, you will not keep them on the road.

Barry Ritholtz: I know that you studied as an engineer and mechanic before eventually moving over to, to watches, obviously the design ethos of some of these cars. Yeah. They’re just so phenomenal and spectacular. What sort of inspiration do you running a, a fine watchmaker take from the designs of these cars?

Wilhelm Schmid: I don’t think you can immediately take something from that world into our world, but if you look at these cars, well, the first thing that comes to mind is some of them are 50, 60, 80, a hundred years old. And we look at them today and they still fascinate us. So obviously that design survived all the different fashion change of taste, odds of time. They’re here today and they’re as attracted as they were probably back then when they were brand new.

If you look at specifically the purpose-built car, you know, the race cars, they were built for only one purpose and that’s what they were perfect in. And I think in watches you also have to identify what is it that you emphasize on, and then don’t compromise too much on it because if you start making big compromises, you end up with something which is, you know, a little bit of everything, but nothing particularly really good. So I think that’s what you can take from cars into watches, identify the purpose, and then everything should direct to achieve that. If I call it the North Star, you know that purpose and for watches, it’s exactly the same. So

Barry Ritholtz: There’s a lovely white Mercedes going out there. (Yes. With the red interior.) And I once heard someone ask you to compare A Lange to a car, and you thought about it and said the gull wing, because the design was purposeful from start to finish. Tell us what you mean by purposeful in either watch or car design.

Wilhelm Schmid: You know, if you, if you go back and think about the mid fifties in Germany, I mean, I wasn’t born there. I’m not that old, but you know, I can, I see, I saw pictures, I saw pictures of the Autobar and I saw the cars on the road back then. And then think about very suddenly something like the gold wing appears. I mean, an alien could have landed and caused the same result.

Barry Ritholtz: Tubular frame up racing an,

Wilhelm Schmid: d 210 horsepower you know, the 235 kilometers an hour high speed. You know what it did, the doors.

Barry Ritholtz: ’cause you couldn’t have a door over that frame exactly for the body, they were too wide.

Wilhelm Schmid: Right. So they just came up with the doors and you know what they did at limit? They wanted to permit that because in the book it, it didn’t say explicitly, it’s not allowed, but, you know, no got much Negotiated.

Barry Ritholtz:  And they did very well,

Wilhelm Schmid: Absolutely they did. Absolutely did it. No, but I think the car was made for one purpose and it was winning races in the first place and, and, and paving the way for Mercedes internationally to be back where they wanted to be. And that is very high up. Don’t forget the price of these cars. I mean, you could probably bought streets for the same price, not houses or streets in, in, in the mid fifties ar

Barry Ritholtz: Arguably the first supercar ever made. So you’re a connoisseur of vintage cars. I know you have a couple of Porsches. Tell us what else you like in, in classic automobiles?

Wilhelm Schmid: I do like the, what I call the odd balls. The Porsche that I have are actually the exceptions because everybody knows what a nine 11 is. And probably many people know what a 356 is. So that’s, I don’t say utility, but these cars are, you know, the, the, the 356 is my Swiss pocket knife.  Because you know, you can go on a tour with it, which I take that car a lot and if the weather is nice, you just open the roof and it takes you 30 seconds and if the rain comes, it takes you 30 seconds to bring the roof back on. It is not as watertight as you think it is. I have to say. There’s still a lot of water coming through, but at least you’re roughly protected against the environment.

And the 911 is the car that I never wanted and I will never sell. It’s just a fantastic driving car. But you know, the other cars that I have are more for people that really know about cars. You know, if I share somebody, I have a Fraser Nash, most people right. Wouldn’t even know what that is. And that’s not a surprise because I think they build about 600 cars pre-war and then about 83 post-war. So the likelihood that you know it, if you’re not into the hobby is very high.

Barry Ritholtz: So I keep me meeting people here, chatting about cars, chatting about watches. When I was doing a little research on you, it turns out that you really know the firm’s clients, both customers and collectors. What do you do in an event like this? How much time do you spend with some of the longer collectors and people who are so enthusiastic about the brand?

Wilhelm Schmid: I would say 90%. You know, really, if I’m not in interviews with you, then I’m out there and, and, and talking to our customers, you know, that’s the most important for us because at the end we mustn’t forget all that is not paid by Lang and Zuna. This is paid by our customers.

Barry Ritholtz: there’s a quote of yours I really enjoyed. We wanna surprise, inspire and enchant our clients with an unprecedented imagination and ingenuity. How do you go from those lofty goals to turning it into a mechanical time piece?

Wilhelm Schmid: Yeah, well first of all, it takes strict discipline. The moment you do things that are not in line with who you are, you may surprise people, but probably not positively. And, and for sure eventually will dilute your, your your brand equity. So the third thing is you have to apply this simply. That’s why we have six different watch families and we have sort of a horizon of seven years and we wanna apply each watch family at least once, let’s say within 24 months rolling. So that’s, you know, sort of the, the engineering structure all attempts. That doesn’t answer your question. I know staying traditional, but thinking out of the box because our value set is very traditional, but our thinking is often very much out of the box.

I give you a good example. The torubillion has been invented by Breguet, I think about 280 years back or so, something like this. It was there to enhance the accuracy of a watch by, you know, eliminating the mistake that happened through gravity, basically

Barry Ritholtz: Mostly pocket watches, which we’re always facing downwards,

Wilhelm Schmid: and of course it’s a very delicate mechanism. It it does do the job because think about you put your watch on desk next to your bed, so at least for 10 hours it is exposed to gravity without moving. Anyhow, I wanna argue the necessity of a ion. What we found very interesting is that it was there to enhance the accuracy, but it was impossible to set time correctly. Because if you do that with a running second, it is pure luck that you hit exactly the point. So we were the first in 2009 to come up with a mechanism that makes the toon stop. So the second hand comes to a stop and you can adjust the time properly. We then went one step further with the 1815 tobe beyond where you’re not only stopped the moment you pull the crown, that second then goes to zero, which is the best way to adjust your watch properly.

Now that sounds easy, but if you take into consideration that that tour beyond has about 85 little parts, the total weight is about oh 0.75 gram wow. You, you know, any impact and the mechanism will be destroyed. So you have to be very careful in what you do. That is just one example where we think out of the box, a chronograph with sort of a, a running minute, which most of them do, you know, the second hand goes and it’s catching the, the minute counter. And then as, as the second hand goes on, the minute counter slowly moves, which makes it quite difficult. Is it now two minutes or three minutes or four minutes. So hours in most cases have the jumping. So it’s the second hand crosses the 12th, it jumps by one minute. So you absolutely clear it’s one minute, two minute, three minute or four minute, not is it two and a half or is it three? Just little things that don’t mean a lot for people that are not into fine watches, but they mean the world for our customers.

Barry Ritholtz: I want to talk about the Odysseus in a little bit. Yes. And that particular chronograph, which is fairly unique, but we’re, we’re not quite there yet. I wanna stay with the fact that Longa is famously a German watchmaker. What advantages are there or disadvantages Yeah. For being a German maker in an industry dominated by giant Swiss brands?

Wilhelm Schmid: I think it’s more an advantage than a disadvantage. First of all, I always say there is no Swiss watchmaking and there’s no German watchmaking. Because think about it. I mean, you can find Swiss made watches for a hundred euro and then you find, find the same for a few million. How, how, how can, how can be there any common denominator that covers the Swiss mate from there to there. So same for Germany. You know, we have watches that are very inexpensive and then you have us with sometimes watches up to 2 million obviously at the, at the top end. It’s like a package, it’s like a box of chocolate, you know. And our chocolate is craftsmanship, history and design. And we stay very strict to it.

00:13:00 [Speaker Changed] So some of the bigger brands put out watches in the millions of units. Rolex famously two to 3 million. Patek is known to do about 75,000 watches. Longa does a small fraction. Every piece is made by hand assembled twice.

Barry Ritholtz: And not because we can’t get it right first time — its assembled first and then the pieces are taken apart and hand engraved and decorated.

Wilhelm Schmid: It’s you know, because we use the original sources, we believe that anything that nothing is much better than, than German silver. You know, that’s the perfect material. It’s been, it’s been good for the last 150 years.  So we believe in this and we don’t want to coat it. Which means over time it will develop a very nice patina, you know, the silver will get that little golden glow, which is beautiful.

Problem is you breathe on it or you touch it, it will look very ugly very soon. And you cannot even clean it. You have to machine it. So that means to, to, to to, to maintain a statical and technical perfection, you first have to make sure your movement is absolutely up to scratch. All tolerances are there, everything is adjusted, everything works.

You go through the test and if you have assurance, you know, that movement is like, it has to be, it goes back to the watchmaker. He or she will disassemble it, clean it, put in the final decoration because now you know you don’t have to adjust anymore because that’s done. You clean it, you oil it, you put the final decoration in case it goes again through the test, and only then it ends up in a, on a, on a happy wrist.

Barry Ritholtz: So inherently the way you build watches, you’re gonna be somewhat limited in production. How, how does that affect the decision making process of what sort of watches you make? And I know there are a number of Longo watches that are limited editions of a hundred or 50 or even 25. Yes. What’s the thinking behind that?

Wilhelm Schmid: Very easy. You know, sometimes let’s take the minute repeater perpetual calendar that we launched this year in April. We know it’s gonna take us three to four years to build to 50 watches.

Barry Ritholtz: Meaning from start to finish you’ll do a couple of watches every year wow

Wilhelm Schmid: You know, so, and we know that. So in today’s world to come up now with this sort of capacity and say we produce a hundred means the last one will get to watch in eight years.

Barry Ritholtz:  That’s a long time

Wilhelm Schmid: Right. So what that’s, you know, capacity balanced by what we think we can expect from a customer to wait, that usually gives an idea about the limitation.

Barry Ritholtz: I was looking at the Lange Perpetual In black. Yes. And I stopped by the boutique and they said figure somewhere between 12 and 15 months. Before yours is ready. So when someone orders a watch. That goes into the system and my watch is moving. Yeah. it’s literally that specific

The Odysseus came out very unique looking sports watch then a lightweight titanium version.

Wilhelm Schmid: No, first the white gold. White gold. So it was 24th of October 19 stainless steel in April, 2020. White gold, then titanium,

Barry Ritholtz: Then the honey gold,

Wilhelm Schmid: Then the honey gold. No then the odys chronograph.

Barry Ritholtz: Ah The chronograph

Wilhelm Schmid: And then the honey gold.

Barry Ritholtz: So I, let’s talk about the chronograph. Most people are familiar with Chronos ’cause they typically have two or three sub dials. YesNot with the Odysseus

Wilhelm Schmid: Now it wouldn’t work because of the design of the dial. You know, if you look at

Barry Ritholtz: ’cause of the big day and date?

Wilhelm Schmid: If you take the dial off and you look at the movement, the upside of the movement, you will see it’s almost all blocked. So there is no way that you come through. And of course we also didn’t want to increase the size by much, you know, we wanna have a wearable watch. So the only way was to utilize the center even more than we usually do. And that’s why the chronograph, the second and the minute hand comes out of the center.

Barry Ritholtz: And when you reset the chronograph, it does a little bit of a dance. Yeah. That’s kind of unusual. I’ve spoken to a lot of people about this. Nobody has been able to explain that to me. You are my last hope.  Tell us about that.

Wilhelm Schmid: It’s very easy because they are yet together. So if you reset it, the, the minute hand will do as many turns as the second because it’s linked. Right. And it’s so quick that you can’t see. It probably would take a good camera and then you slow it down to see it. But basically, if you have stopped 17 minutes and let’s say 30 seconds, what works? Like this is factually seven times going around to come to zero.

Barry Ritholtz: Why does it, why does it do that?

Wilhelm Schmid: Because it’s geared together. It’s, there’s, you know, because it comes out of the,

00:19:05 [Speaker Changed] It’s strictly because of it’s a centen center hands. I think that’s

00:19:07 [Speaker Changed] Exactly the point.

00:19:08 [Speaker Changed] Huh. That, that’s really, that’s really fascinating. So a watch like the Zet work or the Odysseus, how long is that process when someone first conceives of this, take us through how long it is from idea till the finished product in the boutique.

00:19:24 [Speaker Changed] Very different. You know, Odysseus, as I said, took us 25 years. Basically. I think that the real process where we identify, that’s the phase, you know, that looks different to anything else in the market that will not cannibalize anything within our own range. To to to, to launch, to watch it. The 24th of October, in, in, in, in 2019. I was good. Seven years,

00:19:53 [Speaker Changed] Seven years from start to finish. That’s, that’s amazing. Yeah. So, so yesterday at the event two new longest dropped the Axia thin. Yes. In black Onyx and platinum. Is that

00:20:05 [Speaker Changed] Right? Yes. True. Onyx honey, gold and platinum. Yeah.

00:20:08 [Speaker Changed] Really striking dress watches. The Saxon are sort of, I don’t wanna call it entry level, but they’re less pricey than some of the other watches.

00:20:19 [Speaker Changed] They are more simple, simple. That’s how I show it, you know, it’s, for us, it’s all about the amount of parts the years it take to develop the, the hours it takes to assemble that at the end will define whether it’s a complicated watch or I would say more simple watch and two hands. I think we don’t go more simple than two hands.

00:20:40 [Speaker Changed] And my first nice dress watch was a rose gold Saxon mood phase, you see over black. Yes. And one of the things that people are genuinely surprised is the same level of detail and finishing what, what you describe as simple a lot of people think of in terms of price point. There seems to be no difference. No, no, no. It’s,

00:21:03 [Speaker Changed] You know, if you look at our, our process in the manufacturing, we can, you know, the people that work on finish, they sometimes have no idea where that part will end up. So they will not say, oh, that goes into grand complication. We do it a little better. Or that goes into thin. How we do it a little, that’s

00:21:22 [Speaker Changed] The same thing regardless. Million dollars or entry level.

00:21:25 [Speaker Changed] It, we do not distinguish in quality at all. It’s all the same emphasized on lofty detail, craftsmanship, hand polishing, decoration, hand engraving. There is no difference. Double assembly, it’s one process. It doesn’t matter whether the watch would cost 25,000 euro or 2 million.

00:21:47 [Speaker Changed] And when people say to me, I’m looking for an elegant dress watch, but something that’s not too pricey. My answer is always the Saxon, it’s just timeless, so elegant and continues to just, yes, the design gets better over time.

00:22:03 [Speaker Changed] And, and it’s, it’s, it’s ama you know, people, you look at it and you see it’s an Alan on Zuna watch. If you have something complicated like this, you have a lot of hands to work with. You have the sub dials, you know, you have to push back. You can do a lot. But I think one of the biggest challenge for designers is you have two hands to work with and not a lot on the on the dial. Make it an Alan Zuna.

00:22:28 [Speaker Changed] So the data graph has been called one of the best chronographs ever designed. What’s the core of that Watches appeal? What makes that so special?

00:22:39 [Speaker Changed] I think it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s more than just a watch. You know, I, I’m a watch collector for a long, long time. I can remember when I opened a newspaper in, in, in, in, in 20, in, in 94. And I saw the at with the four lunga watches. 99 were, most companies around the world were still using somebody else movement and often the same supplier. Here comes a chronograph, which is one of the crown things in watchmaking from Germany in a very unique design with an outsized date. I think it was a wake up call. And, and, and we must not estimate what that watch started in the watch industry because before that chronograph didn’t play a role. There were two supplier and that was it basically after that. And if you then go and, and, and, and analyze what happened from then to the following 5, 6, 7 years, a lot of chronograph movements came out. So that’s why this watch is so important for us because that was the first real complication other than the tobe beyond polymer that we worked on. And I think that was a wake up call and it, it, it just gave us a reputation as a solid watchmaker that it’s the next level up

00:24:20 [Speaker Changed] For sure. Absolutely. The next level up. So you get to spend a lot of time with, with clients, with customers. Absolutely. With collectors. How are you seeing the, their expectations and desires changing? What does the client base look for from Longo over the next decade? I think it

00:24:38 [Speaker Changed] Does. It never changed.

00:24:40 [Speaker Changed] Never

00:24:41 [Speaker Changed] Changes. No, you know, first of all, do you have any idea what you will like in three years from now, one

00:24:50 [Speaker Changed] Who does?

00:24:50 [Speaker Changed] Exactly. So when people say, oh, you come with a small watch because you follow trend, I say, look, I mean, I wish we had known seven years ago and we started developing the movement. We are not in the fashion industry. Business, you know, our processes and the time it takes to come to market is so long that you maybe can anticipate, but maybe you have to stay true to yourself. And I think the one thing which our customers expect from us is authenticity. It has to be in Lan Zuna. And if you had followed the discussion after we launched the Odysseus, because you know, we always said, we only precious metal in here, can we steal? And later on with titanium, say, of course there was a heated debate. Of course there was. And we were aware of it because that is a tension that on purpose we wanted, there were a lot of people that said, ah, it’s not for me. I see Langa as dress watch only there were luckily a lot more people that say, I want that watch desperately where we can produce fine. However, it just opened up a new chapter in our design language because now we have a playground to try out things that we would never do with our classical watch families.

00:26:19 [Speaker Changed] And every car enthusiast knows when the Porsche nine 11 came out, the 3 56 purists were upset. What, what are you giving us such a big car who needs six cylinders?

00:26:32 [Speaker Changed] Absolutely. That’s why they built a nine 12. Right. Put the four cylinder in. You know, that’s, that’s exactly what they did. So yeah. That’s funny. Sometimes I

00:26:41 [Speaker Changed] I I love this quote of yours and I’m wondering if it still applies. You said part of longer’s success is that we’re a secret. Yeah. So question number one is what makes that an asset? And question number two is look at this event. How much longer is this a secret? Oh,

00:26:58 [Speaker Changed] It is, it is, it is in the white world. We are still absolutely unknown and I think that’s a good place to be. There are, there are three reasons to it. The one is, what we do is very difficult to understand specifically at the price point that we request for people that are not into fine watchmaking. Why would you spend so much money on a watch when your iPhone gives you the time? More precisely. You know, that the general thinking for sure. The second is, in today’s world, you don’t want to show off too much. At

00:27:40 [Speaker Changed] Least these are very much under the radar. And I am always shocked at people who haven’t the slightest idea when I’m wearing this, as opposed to the better known

00:27:49 [Speaker Changed] Brands. Why isn’t that nice? I mean, that gives you a certain confidence and a certain, it’s, it’s, you know, you don’t need to shout. And on the other hand, and I’m sure you can agree on it, if you see somebody that is also having a una it’s not difficult to, to get the communication started. Isn’t it

00:28:08 [Speaker Changed] Immediate, immediately have something to shout about if you know, you know,

00:28:12 [Speaker Changed] You know for sure. And, and that’s why I believe it is so important to remain a secret. I also admit the real challenges to secret, to share the secret with, you know, the right crowd of people. Because at the end, you know, I mean I’m fine, but whenever we take the new apprenticeship trainees in in August, I feel the duty on my shoulders because now they start a career as watchmaker and they’re in for the next 40 years. So we need to make sure that the next generation knows what we do and we stay relevant for this.

00:28:46 [Speaker Changed] So I only have you for a few more minutes. I want to get to my last couple of questions. Speaking of the next generation. Yeah. How do you appeal to younger buyers and and what sort of approach do you have as all these tastes seem to shift amongst the 20 and 30 something crowd?

00:29:07 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I gladly we don’t have a real issue here. We have a surprisingly young customer base. I always say that and I never understood it. I mean, if you are young and you’re interested, what speaks against quality, longevity, classless and timeless design. Robustness, value creation. Yeah. I mean, it doesn’t matter whether you are a hundred years old or 10. If you are into that, you’re gonna like it. The way we connect with these people is different to the way, let’s say I was connected to the watch industry because, and as, as I grew up, it was very difficult to find even specialized magazines for, for watches. Today you have everything you can think of. I believe we live in absolute paradise times for for watch enthusiast because never ever in history have there been more watch brands, higher quality, more information, right. More information and easy accessible information. You know, you can do your research without leaving your room. That was impossible in times, you know, where I started to get into the hobby,

00:30:21 [Speaker Changed] Although I, I would tell people go see the watch. Go try it on, make sure that’s

00:30:26 [Speaker Changed] The only thing that matters. That’s right. It’s the only, I would just say the natural habitat of a wrist watch is, is the wrist a wrist? So forget about looking at thumbing and ah, I like it. That’s a good start. But the moment of truth is you grab that watch, you put it around your wrist, you look at yourself and see is it me or is it not?

00:30:46 [Speaker Changed] So how do you have access to every longer watch? Yeah, there is. How do you decide what you’re gonna grab that day to wear? I,

00:30:54 [Speaker Changed] You know, this one because of, you know, chronograph, we’re in a car world. It’s the 1815, so that’s the more classical line. I’m a huge fan of chronographs and it doesn’t get any better than a Chronograph Raton. So you know that. And I, it’s admit, I think it works very nice with my tan color right now.

00:31:17 [Speaker Changed] So our last question. Tell us what’s next for Longa and Sona? What surprises are coming up down the road? What should we be looking for?

00:31:27 [Speaker Changed] I think it’s always good to look for, but if I now share secrets, there’s no surprise. And that’s the one thing people love surprises. But I can share with you as much as is, this is not the last surprise for this year.

00:31:44 [Speaker Changed] Oh, really? So the, the Saxon Finns not the last surprise of 2025. That’s

00:31:50 [Speaker Changed] What I should

00:31:50 [Speaker Changed] Fantastic. That was my conversation with Wilhelm Schmidt, CEO of Langan Zona at the Newport Oring concourse to Elegance. Extra special thanks to the team that came up to Newport to help film this. Alexis Noriega is my video producer. Sebastian Escobar is my videographer. Anna Luke is my producer. Sage Bauman is the head of podcast at Bloomberg. I’m Barry ols. You’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

~~~

 

 

The post Transcript: Wilhelm Schmid, A. Lange & Söhne CEO appeared first on The Big Picture.

Chinese, Japanese Boats In Tense Standoff Near Disputed Islands As Taiwan-Related Feud Escalates

Zero Hedge -

Chinese, Japanese Boats In Tense Standoff Near Disputed Islands As Taiwan-Related Feud Escalates

The severe diplomatic standoff which was triggered by last month's words of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi wherein she suggested Japan would militarily aid in Taiwan's defense in the event of a Chinese invasion is increasingly becoming a potential military standoff. We earlier detailed that Japan has even deployed medium-range missiles to a remote Japanese island not far from China.

Already there's been a confrontation involving China's coast guard boats, which attempted to run off a Japanese fishing vessel for allegedly being inside claimed Chinese waters. The fresh incident happened near a group of geopolitically sensitive islands in the East China Sea on Tuesday.

Japan and Chinese coast guard vessels have clashed somewhat frequently in the recent past. Illustrative: Kyodo News, via Associated Press

The Japanese boat is accused of entering the waters of the Diaoyu Islands - which Tokyo calls the Senkaku Islands and has long administered. 

But a nearby Japanese Coast Guard ship which had been accompanying the fishing vessel then in turn expelled two Chinese Coast Guard ships as they approached and tried to enforce Beijing's expansive maritime claims over the territory.

The area is already a bit of a flashpoint between the two historic rivals, as Taiwan is located just less than 100 miles southwest of the Senkaku Islands. There are conflicting accounts of the incident, with the Chinese side relating as follows:

China Coast Guard (CCG) spokesperson Liu Dejun said that Chinese vessels on Tuesday approached and warned off a Japanese fishing boat that had "illegally entered the territorial waters of China's Diaoyu Dao", according to a state media report.

Liu added that the CCG took "necessary law enforcement measures", claiming that the islands were Chinese territory and urging Japan to "immediately stop all acts of infringement and provocation in these waters".

However, Japan has countered that its coast guard boats approached the Chinese vessels shortly after they were seen breaching Japanese waters and issued warnings and threats demanding they leave sovereign waters.

The current broader standoff over PM Takaichi's Taiwan comments is now trickling down to the common populations on either side, as events like concerts have been canceled:

The abrupt cancellations of several Japanese music events in Shanghai - one of them midway through a song - have sparked criticism among fans, with some calling the moves "rude" and "extreme".

Maki Otsuki was halfway through the theme of hit anime One Piece on Friday when the lights and music went off, after which she was rushed off stage by two crew members.

On Saturday, pop star Ayumi Hamasaki performed to an empty 14,000-seat stadium after organizers axed her concert in Shanghai, citing "force majeure".

This spate of cancellations come as diplomatic tensions between Beijing and Tokyo fester over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan.

China earlier warned Japan will suffer a "crushing" defeat if it ever decided to directly intervene in the Taiwan dispute. Recent years have also seen Beijing's anger grow after NATO briefly talked about opening an official office in Tokyo, but these plans were soon abandoned for the time being.

Source: VOA

Last month China's foreign ministry warned that "Right-wing forces in Japan are ... leading Japan and the region toward disaster." Foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning further told a regular news briefing. Beijing "is determined and capable of safeguarding its national territorial sovereignty."

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 09:00

Chinese, Japanese Boats In Tense Standoff Near Disputed Islands As Taiwan-Related Feud Escalates

Zero Hedge -

Chinese, Japanese Boats In Tense Standoff Near Disputed Islands As Taiwan-Related Feud Escalates

The severe diplomatic standoff which was triggered by last month's words of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi wherein she suggested Japan would militarily aid in Taiwan's defense in the event of a Chinese invasion is increasingly becoming a potential military standoff. We earlier detailed that Japan has even deployed medium-range missiles to a remote Japanese island not far from China.

Already there's been a confrontation involving China's coast guard boats, which attempted to run off a Japanese fishing vessel for allegedly being inside claimed Chinese waters. The fresh incident happened near a group of geopolitically sensitive islands in the East China Sea on Tuesday.

Japan and Chinese coast guard vessels have clashed somewhat frequently in the recent past. Illustrative: Kyodo News, via Associated Press

The Japanese boat is accused of entering the waters of the Diaoyu Islands - which Tokyo calls the Senkaku Islands and has long administered. 

But a nearby Japanese Coast Guard ship which had been accompanying the fishing vessel then in turn expelled two Chinese Coast Guard ships as they approached and tried to enforce Beijing's expansive maritime claims over the territory.

The area is already a bit of a flashpoint between the two historic rivals, as Taiwan is located just less than 100 miles southwest of the Senkaku Islands. There are conflicting accounts of the incident, with the Chinese side relating as follows:

China Coast Guard (CCG) spokesperson Liu Dejun said that Chinese vessels on Tuesday approached and warned off a Japanese fishing boat that had "illegally entered the territorial waters of China's Diaoyu Dao", according to a state media report.

Liu added that the CCG took "necessary law enforcement measures", claiming that the islands were Chinese territory and urging Japan to "immediately stop all acts of infringement and provocation in these waters".

However, Japan has countered that its coast guard boats approached the Chinese vessels shortly after they were seen breaching Japanese waters and issued warnings and threats demanding they leave sovereign waters.

The current broader standoff over PM Takaichi's Taiwan comments is now trickling down to the common populations on either side, as events like concerts have been canceled:

The abrupt cancellations of several Japanese music events in Shanghai - one of them midway through a song - have sparked criticism among fans, with some calling the moves "rude" and "extreme".

Maki Otsuki was halfway through the theme of hit anime One Piece on Friday when the lights and music went off, after which she was rushed off stage by two crew members.

On Saturday, pop star Ayumi Hamasaki performed to an empty 14,000-seat stadium after organizers axed her concert in Shanghai, citing "force majeure".

This spate of cancellations come as diplomatic tensions between Beijing and Tokyo fester over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan.

China earlier warned Japan will suffer a "crushing" defeat if it ever decided to directly intervene in the Taiwan dispute. Recent years have also seen Beijing's anger grow after NATO briefly talked about opening an official office in Tokyo, but these plans were soon abandoned for the time being.

Source: VOA

Last month China's foreign ministry warned that "Right-wing forces in Japan are ... leading Japan and the region toward disaster." Foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning further told a regular news briefing. Beijing "is determined and capable of safeguarding its national territorial sovereignty."

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 09:00

Futures Rebound As Bitcoin Halts Plunge

Zero Hedge -

Futures Rebound As Bitcoin Halts Plunge

After Monday's dismal start to December, US equity futures are higher (if only for the time being), although lacking conviction with few major catalysts on deck today. As of 8:15am, S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 contracts add 0.4%. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly higher led by META (+0.6%) and AMZN (+0.4%). Bond yields are unchanged and the USD is flat. Commodities are mostly mixed: Oil is flat; base metals are all higher (aluminum +0.9%), while precious metals are lower. After the latest post-BOJ bloodbath, bitcoin has managed to hold a modest bid and was trading above $87,000. The US economic calendar is blank for scheduled data releases.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Meta +0.6%, Alphabet +0.5%, Nvidia +0.8%, Amazon +0.7%, Tesla +0.3%, Microsoft +0.05%, Apple -0.1%). 

  • Cloudflare Inc. (NET) gains 2% after Barclays launched coverage on the infrastructure software company with an overweight rating and a $235 price target.
  • Credo Technology (CRDO) rises 18% after the communications equipment company’s second-quarter results came in much stronger than expected. It also gave a strong forecast. Shares of competitor Astera Labs (ALAB) gain 5%.
  • MongoDB (MDB) rallies 23% after the database software company reported stronger-than-expected results. It also raised its full-year forecast.
  • Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) gains 3% after Truist Securities upgraded the theme park operator’s stock to buy from hold.
  • Solaris Energy Infrastructure Inc. (SEI) rises 4% after the data center power generator was initiated at Morgan Stanley with a recommendation of overweight on power supply demand.
  • Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (WBD) inches 1.1% higher. The company was fielding a second round of bids on Monday, including a mostly cash offer from Netflix Inc., in an auction that could wrap up in the coming days or weeks, according to people familiar with the discussions.

In corporate news, The Information reported that Amazon is planning a new ultrafast grocery delivery offering in major US urban areas, sending shares of Instacart lower. Warner Bros. Discovery was said to be fielding a second round of bids on Monday, including a mostly cash offer from Netflix. The Commerce Department agreed to invest as much as $150 million in xLight, a chip technology startup tied to former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger. 

With the market stuck in a holding pattern until the next leg higher or lower, investors are awaiting eco data later this week, and the Fed is now in a blackout period. Black Friday and Cyber Monday offered some clues on the economy, with Bloomberg describing “anxious but still active” consumers, and Salesforce data showing Cyber Monday spending grew more slowly in the US than Europe for the first time as tariffs stung American shoppers.

“For long-only investors like we are, I’d say in the absence of any major catalyst, it’s very much wait-and-see until the Fed meeting, while keeping an eye on US jobs and inflation data,” said Karen Georges, a fund manager at Ecofi Investissements in Paris.

Much now depends on the Fed’s decision at next week’s meeting. Disappointment would pose a risk for equities, though confidence in a cut is virtually certain, with market odds of a cut at 100% following softer labor and inflation data and a run of dovish comments from officials.

“Dips continue to present attractive buying opportunities,” wrote Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. “The narrative behind that bull case remains an attractive one, with earnings growth solid, the underlying economy resilient, a calmer tone on trade continuing to prevail, and the monetary backdrop growing looser.”

Bitcoin is steady today after a more than 5% plunge on Monday which saw almost $1 billion of leveraged crypto positions liquidated. Crypto retail investors who piled into exchange-traded funds tracking Strategy’s volatile stock have paid a heavy price. Both MSTX and MSTU - which offer double the daily return - have dropped more than 80% this year, among the 10 worst-performing funds in the entire US ETF market.

While bitcoin longs were hammered again, so were stock short sellers: they were down $80 billion in mark-to-market losses in the final week of November, wiping out the bulk of what had been nearly $95 billion in month-to-date profits prior to last week, per data compiled by S3 Partners. “Being short here requires high confidence in a much weaker economic backdrop or a significant change in the outlook for AI capex,” said Dennis Debusschere, co-founder and chief market strategist at 22V Research.

Ahead of next week’s Fed decision, Barclays strategists noted that S&P 500 implied moves ahead of FOMC meetings have declined since early 2023, with realized moves hovering near zero recently. It’s a trend that underscores the fading influence of monetary policy, they wrote. 

After hitting a record high just shy of $60, silver pulled back modestly with a technical gauge showing that a six-day rally had pushed the metal into overbought territory. Copper also retreated amid signs that softer Chinese demand heading into winter might help to ease a looming global supply crunch.

Elsewhere, Bloomberg found that among the 14 largest markets, the US currently ranks 5th from last in local-currency terms and 4th from last in dollar terms this year. That raises questions about whether the AI theme will lead it to victory or whether volatility tied to nascent tech exposure is doing more harm than good.

European stocks and US equity futures hold modest gains; the Stoxx 600 rises 0.2%, led by gains in banks, utilities and construction. Bayer soars after the Trump administration urged the Supreme Court to take up the company’s appeal of the Roundup case. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

  • Bayer shares surge as much as 15% after the US solicitor general urged the high court to consider the German company’s appeal targeting thousands of lawsuits blaming its Roundup weedkiller for causing cancer.
  • Bilfinger shares rise as much as 6% after the German company said it aims to achieve an advanced average revenue growth of 8% to 10% annually, elevate its Ebita margin to 8% to 9%, and ensure a cash conversion rate of at least 90% until 2030.
  • Victrex shares jump as much as 11% after JPMorgan said the thermoplastic maker cleared a low bar by beating expectations in the second half. Jefferies noted that a feared dividend cut hasn’t materialized.
  • Biotalys shares rise as much as 8.8% after the Belgian agricultural technology company received regulatory approval from the US Environmental Protection Agency for its first biofungicide, called Evoca.
  • Compagnie des Alpes rises as much as 6.9% following 2025 results from the French ski resort and theme park operator, which CIC Market Solutions describes as “excellent.”
  • Swissquote shares tumble as much as 8.6% after one of its investors offered shares at a discount to the last closing price. Shares fell below the offer price before paring losses.
  • Scandic Hotels drops as much as 8.8% as Morgan Stanley downgrades to underweight from equal-weight, saying the country’s acquisition of Dalata’s hotel operation may not be as profitable as previously expected.
  • Foresight Group shares decline as much as 8.2% after the UK infrastructure and private equity investment management services company’s interim results, with Peel Hunt noting impact from margin compression.
  • Pantheon Resources shares drop as much as 28% after the company’s update on work at the Dubhe-1 well. Canaccord Genuity said markets are still waiting for representative flow rates and that the cost of the work has come in higher than previously forecast.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained, snapping a two-day decline, helped by a rally in tech-heavy markets of South Korea and Taiwan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.5%, before paring gains. TSMC, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were among the biggest boosts to the gauge’s climb. Shares eked out small gains in Japan as banks extended advances on speculation of a Bank of Japan interest-rate hike this month. Growing expectations of an interest rate cut in the US is aiding risk-on in the region. A stabilization in bitcoin also helped sentiment after a selloff in cryptocurrencies led declines in global risk assets on Monday. Shares drop in India, as the rupee hit a record low. Concerns over the lack of a trade deal with the US is weighing on the currency. Benchmarks in China also traded lower. 

In FX, the yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.4% against the dollar and pushing USD/JPY above 156. The euro loses a few pips with little reaction to a surprise uptick in euro-area CPI. The pound is down 0.2%.

In rates, treasury yields are higher, within two basis points of Monday’s close with 10-year trading around 4.11%. Bund and gilts are little changed. In Asia, JGBs were supported after Tuesday’s 10-year auction drew solid demand. The corporate issuance slate is expected to grow following a heavy day on Monday. The IG dollar bond issuance slate is empty so far. Tuesday is expected to bring more US investment-grade bond issuance after around $16 billion of new deals on Monday, led by Merck’s acquisition-related $8 billion eight-part offering.

In commodities, spot gold falls $45 and back below $4,200/oz. US crude futures are treading water at $59.30 a abrrel. 

The US economic calendar is blank for scheduled data releases. Fed members are in external communications blackout ahead of the Dec. 10 policy announcement

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini +0.2%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
  • Russell 2000 mini +0.5%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
  • DAX +0.5%
  • CAC 40 +0.2%
  • 10-year Treasury yield unchanged at 4.09%
  • VIX -0.4 points at 16.85
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1219.09
  • euro little changed at $1.1604
  • WTI crude little changed at $59.34/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • Trump's schedule noted he will host a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday at 11:30am and will make an announcement at 2:00pm. Some expect he could announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair (Hassett's odds are up to 79% on Polymarket). 
  • Senators have about a week before they’re set to vote on soon-to-expire Affordable Care Act subsidies. Most of them already believe the chances for a bipartisan breakthrough by then are roughly zero. Politico
  • US envoy Steve Witkoff is set to meet Vladimir Putin to discuss a Ukraine peace plan as Russia claimed its forces seized Pokrovsk on the Donetsk frontline. A fourth Russia-connected tanker in less than a week was attacked today. BBG
  • Officially, the search for a new Federal Reserve chair is still under way. A handful of finalists are scheduled to sit down for interviews beginning this week with Vice President JD Vance and senior White House staff. Unofficially, the process seems to be all but over, with President Trump appearing to favor longtime adviser Kevin Hassett. If Hassett does end up the nominee, it will be because he met Trump’s two key criteria: loyalty, and credibility with the markets. WSJ
  • OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman told employees Monday that the company was declaring a “code red” effort to improve the quality of ChatGPT and delaying other products as a result. OpenAI plans to launch a new reasoning model next week that the company claims outperforms Gemini 3. WSJ
  • The world economy is weathering Trump’s trade tariffs better than expected, the OECD said. It raised its US and euro-area growth forecasts. Still, it continues to predict global growth will slow to 2.9% in 2026, from 3.2% in 2025. BBG
  • China is expected to ramp up US soybean purchases this month to meet a pledge to buy at least 12 million tons by year-end, led by state firms like Cofco, traders said. So far, only about 3 million have been booked. BBG
  • Strong demand for Japanese government bonds helped to steady Asian markets on Tuesday, a day after hawkish comments from the central bank governor sparked a global selloff. FT
  • Europe’s headline CPI for Nov ran a bit warmer than anticipated at +2.2% (vs. the Street +2.1% and up from +2.1% in Oct) while the core number was inline at +2.4% (and steady vs. Oct). BBG
  • Members of the House of Representatives are quitting Congress at a record rate, with Republican retirements and resignations outpacing Democrats by a nearly 2-to-1 ratio in the first 11 months of the year. In previous cycles, the party with more departures tends to lose seats — if not the majority. Axios
  • Apple plans not to follow the order by the Indian government to preload phones with a state-run cyber safety app, according to Reuters, citing sources; Co. to voice its concerns around privacy and security following new app order

Trade/Tariffs

  • Chinese rare-earth magnet companies are reportedly finding workarounds to their government’s export restrictions, as they seek to keep sales flowing to Western buyers, according to WSJ.
  • China reportedly issues first rare earth magnet general export licence after the Trump-Xi meeting, according to Reuters sources
  • Exxon (XOM) is reportedly in talks with Iraq over purchasing Lukoil's stake in the West Qurna 2 oilfield, via Reuters citing sources.
  • Russia's Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov says that Russia continues to be an important supplier of energy to India on a competitive basis. Looking at possibilities to increase imports from India. A decrease in oil trade volumes can be decreased for a brief period of time.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsqsuawk

APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as the region shrugged off the weak lead from Wall Street, but with the upside capped amid quiet macro catalysts and in the absence of any tier-1 data. ASX 200 eked mild gains with the help of outperformance in energy, resources and mining, but with gains limited by underperformance in tech and utilities, while data was uninspiring with a larger-than-expected contraction in building approvals. Nikkei 225 nursed some of the prior day's losses but with the rebound contained amid risks of a BoJ December hike. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp mostly traded mixed as participants reflected on a slew of monthly auto sales updates, while the mainland lagged after the PBoC's open market operations resulted in a net daily drain of CNY 146bln.

Top Asian News

  • RBNZ Governor Breman said she will discuss with the MPC the possibility of being more transparent with how members vote, while she added that the mandate is very clear that we should focus on keeping inflation low and stable. Breman said that they aim to support a healthy, strong and growing economy, but keep inflation low and stable. It was separately reported that the RBNZ is to begin weekly open-market operations from December 4th and will update changes to the format in Q1 2026.
  • Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has completed development of its 6th-gen HBM4 and is entering full-scale mass production, via AJUNews.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) started the session flat/incrementally firmer before then catching a bid as the morning progressed; no clear driver for the upside, but a move which has sustained as indices reside near peaks. European sectors hold a slight positive bias. Banks take the top spot, with gains broad-based across the UK and Europe, but traders may also be digesting the latest update via the BoE, where it lowered capital requirements for UK banks as they pass stress tests. Media is found at the foot of the pile, joined closely by Travel & Leisure.

Top European News

  • Confederation of British Industry said Britain's private sector expects output to decline during the next three months in the gloomiest outlook since May as cautious consumer spending and cost pressures continue to weigh on businesses.
  • BoE Financial Policy Committee Record: System-wide level of Tier 1 capital requirements is now around 13% of risk-weighted assets, 1ppt lower than its previous benchmark of around 14%. CCyB maintained at 2%. "The Committee has also identified areas for further work, including on buffer usability, the implementation of the leverage ratio in the UK, and initiatives by the Bank to respond to feedback on interactions, proportionality, and complexity. Committee supports the Bank’s plans for a private markets system-wide exploratory scenario (SWES)".
  • OECD sees global growth of 3.2% in 2025 (maintained from prev. forecast), 2.9% in 2026 (maintained), 3.1% in 2027 (new forecast).
  • UK OBR's Miles says it was not misleading for Chancellor Reeves to have said that the situation with public finances was very challenging. 
  • BoE Governor Bailey says he expects banks to support the economy through lending following recent capital changes. 

FX

  • DXY and most G10 FX are uneventful in relatively quiet trade, with a similar lack of macro drivers seen during APAC hours. Specifically, DXY resides in a narrow 99.38-99.52 parameter, with ING calling for a lower dollar this week - "we expect that the remainder of the week will validate the market’s dovish pricing for next week’s Fed meeting". As it stands, the index trades at the upper end of the mentioned ranges, with recent strength thanks to some pressure seen in the GBP.
  • EUR traded flat ahead of the EZ HICP metrics, and then was little moved on the release itself. Headline printed a touch above expected at 2.20% (exp. 2.10%) whilst the Services figure also ticked higher from the prior month. Overall, given the figures were near enough in line with expectations, there was little follow-through into the single-currency and held within a 1.1604 to 1.1616 range, before then touching 1.1600 as the USD picked up a touch.
  • USD/JPY outperforms amid a pick-up in risk sentiment and after the pair's volatile Monday session, which saw a slump to 154.66 lows before bouncing back up and clear of 155.50 and then 156.00, with the pair eyeing yesterday's 156.15 peak as the near-term resistance level, and thereafter Black Friday's 156.58 high.
  • GBP traded flat against the USD, before then moving lower in recent trade. Nothing behind the latest bout of pressure, but it does come after Cable breached 1.3200 to the downside, and then continued to tumble to make a fresh trough at 1.3180 (though it is a moving target).
  • AUD outperforms after ANZ removed its call for an RBA cut in H1-2026, now sees the RBA on an "extended pause" through 2026. As a reminder, CBA and NAB also expect the RBA to be on hold for an extended period of time/foreseeable future. Westpac continues to expect two 2026 cuts, touting May and August for those. AUD/NZD marginally eclipsed 1.1450, from a 1.1418 trough.

Fixed Income

  • A lack of fresh drivers for USTs. The March contract is near-enough flat in a narrow 112-25 to 112-29 band. Overnight, WSJ's Timiraos wrote that, regarding the search for the next Fed Chair, "Unofficially, the process seems to be all but over, with President Trump appearing to favour longtime adviser Kevin Hassett.".
  • Bund Dec'25 is contained in a thin 128.18-35 band this morning. Specifics light. No move in Bunds on the EZ Flash HICP for November, the headline came in hotter-than-expected and ticked up from the prior, while Services lifted from the previous rate. Overall, the hotter-than-expected series chimes with the view that the ECB's easing cycle has likely concluded.
  • Gilts underperform. If the move continues, we look to support for the Gilt Mar'26 contract at 90.53, a double-bottom from the session of and before the Budget. Currently, the low is 90.98, taking out Monday's base by a tick. A move that lifted the UK 10yr yield back above the 4.5% mark. However, this pressure proved somewhat fleeting as the benchmark bounced and has made its way back to the unchanged mark. Nothing fresh, though the OBR briefing is underway and we note remarks from BoE officials on the morning's FSR/FPC briefings.
  • Saudi National Bank is seeking a USD 1bln syndicated loan, via Bloomberg. Loan is being syndicated to the broader market, incl. Asia, according to sources cited.
  • JGB's led overnight after a strong 10yr auction and in a bit of a breather from the largely Ueda-induced selling seen at the start of the week. To a 134.72 peak with gains of just over 20 ticks at best.
  • UK sells GBP 1bln 0.125% 2031 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.88x (prev. 3.49x), real yield 0.949% (prev. 0.889%)
  • Germany sells EUR 3.563bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.00% 2027 Schatz: b/c 1.7x (prev. 1.7x), average yield 2.05% (prev. 1.98%), retention 20.82% (prev. 24.68%)

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent continue to trade within Monday's post-OPEC range of USD 58.83-59.97/bbl and USD 62.69-63.82/bbl, respectively, as a pause in output hike and rising geopolitical concerns continue to support crude prices in the near term. WTI and Brent peaked at the start of the APAC session at USD 59.67/bbl and 63.36/bbl before falling to troughs of 59.09/bbl and 62.88/bbl.
  • XAU and XAG traded muted at the start of the European session. Oscillated in a tight USD 4201-4236/oz and USD 56.60-58/oz band, respectively. More recently, the yellow metal has fallen to make fresh session troughs of USD 4,181/oz - a move which lacked catalysts, but technicians highlight accelerating selling pressure after spot gold slipped below USD 4.2k/oz.
  • 3M LME Copper gapped lower and fell to a trough of USD 11.12k/t before rebounding to a session high of USD 11.27k/t as global risk tone slightly turns around following Monday's selloff.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Arab media reported new Israeli attacks in Khan Yunis and Rafah, according to Iran International.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • European Commission proposals for the Ukraine reparation loan should be distributed to member states tomorrow, and likely first discussion by EU ambassadors on Friday, according to Radio Liberty journalist
  • Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov is to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday.
  • Russia's Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov says US Special Envoy Witkoff and President Putin will discuss the understanding reached between the US and Ukraine, in a meeting at 14:00GMT/09:00EST, via TASS. S-400 and SU-57 fighter jets will be on the agenda.

Geopolitics: Other

  • Venezuelan President Maduro reportedly asked for sanction removal for more than 100 officials during a previous call with US President Trump. Furthermore, Trump gave Maduro a Friday deadline to leave Venezuela with his family, while the failure to meet the Friday deadline prompted Trump's comments on Saturday about the closure of airspace, according to sources cited by Reuters.
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Treasury is investigating allegations that Minnesota tax dollars may have been diverted to Al-Shabaab.
  • China's Coast Guard said it expelled a Japanese vessel in the waters of the Senkaku Islands on Tuesday.
  • "Turkey says oil tanker attacked in Black Sea while sailing from Russia to Georgia", according to Sky News Arabia. However, Sky News Arabia later clarifies, "Turkey says cargo ship attacked in Black Sea while sailing from Russia to Georgia".
  • Japan's Defence Minister Koizumi is considering a visit to the US as early as mid-January to hold talks with War Secretary Hegseth, via Kyodo.

US Event Calendar

  • Nov Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 15.4m, prior 15.32m
  • 10:00 am: Fed’s Bowman Testifies Before House Committee

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets got December off to a rocky start yesterday, with bonds and equities losing ground, alongside a sharp slump in Bitcoin (-5.19%). The moves gathered pace right from the open, as hawkish remarks from BoJ Governor Ueda had already pushed 10yr JGB yields up to a post-GFC high. But that then cascaded across global markets, with bond yields moving sharply higher in the US and Europe too. In the meantime, matters weren’t helped by the latest data, as the ISM manufacturing print leant in a stagflationary direction, whilst higher oil prices only exacerbated those fears. So with all said and done, the S&P 500 (-0.53%) slipped back, whilst 10yr Treasury yields (+7.2bps) saw their biggest daily jump in nearly four weeks.

Those developments in Japan were critical for yesterday’s moves, because Ueda’s comments had led investors to price in a December rate hike from the BoJ as a near-certainty. So that meant bond yields hit a whole bunch of new records, and by the close in Japan yesterday, the 10yr yield (+5.8bps) was at a post-2008 high of 1.86%, whilst the 30yr yield (+4.1bps) was at 3.37%, and the highest since that maturity was first issued in the late-1990s. Similarly at the front end, the 2yr yield closed above 1% for the first time since the GFC. This morning yields on 2yr and 10yr JGBs are both down a basis point after a decent 10yr auction has provided some respite to the bond sell-off. The bid-to-cover ratio was recorded at 3.59, compared to 2.97 at the previous sale in November, and a 12-month average of 3.20.

US futures are also fairly flat, indicating that the sell-off has paused for now. The KOSPI (+1.81%) is leading the way in Asia after rebounding from yesterday and after the US announced that the general tariff rate on imports from South Korea, including automobiles, will decrease to 15% retroactively effective from November 1. In other markets, the Nikkei (+0.24%) is recovering a little this morning after a near two percent decline yesterday, while the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.11%) is also experiencing modest gains. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng (+0.13%) is maintaining small gains, in contrast to the CSI (-0.61%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.55%), which are lower after a stronger session on Monday.  

The moves in Japan echoed around the world yesterday, with a sharp bond selloff on both sides of the Atlantic. For instance, Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+4.0bps) up to 3.53%, the 10yr yield (+7.2bps) rose to 4.09%, and 30yrs (+7.4bps) to 4.74%. Moreover, those moves got further support from several inflationary indicators, including the ISM manufacturing survey. Admittedly, the headline index unexpectedly fell back to 48.2 (vs. 49.0 expected), but the prices paid component ticked up to 58.5 (vs. 57.5 expected) after a run of 4 consecutive monthly declines. So that exacerbated concerns about tariff-driven inflation persisting. And with oil prices rising (+1.27% for Brent) after Ukraine’s weekend attack against an oil terminal in the Black Sea, the 1yr inflation swap (+1.7bps) also posted a 4th consecutive increase to 2.64%.

That downbeat tone was seen for equities too, where the S&P 500 (-0.53%) fell back after a run of 5 consecutive gains, and the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.25%) saw an even bigger slump. Nearly three quarters of the S&P constituents were lower on the day, though the index did recover some ground after futures in Asia had suggested an even larger fall. The Mag-7 (-0.10%) outperformed as Nvidia (+1.65%) rebounded from Friday’s -1.81% decline. By contrast, crypto assets suffered, with Bitcoin (-5.19%) falling to $86,446 by the close, and trading below $84k intra-day. Unsurprisingly, that meant there were sizeable losses for crypto-related stocks like Coinbase (-4.76%). Overnight Bitcoin has bounced a little.

Earlier in Europe, markets had followed a very similar pattern, with bonds and equities selling off together. So the STOXX 600 (-0.20%) also fell back after 5 consecutive gains, and there was a particularly sharp decline for the German DAX (-1.04%). And there wasn’t much data capable of boosting the mood either, with the Euro Area manufacturing PMI revised down a tenth from the flash reading to 49.6, so still in contractionary territory. Meanwhile, yields on 10yr bunds (+6.1bps), OATs (+7.5bps) and BTPs (+6.9bps) all moved higher.

Here in the UK, we also heard yesterday that the head of the OBR budget watchdog had resigned, which comes after their analysis of the budget’s contents went live on its website ahead of the Chancellor’s announcement. However, that wasn’t a market moving story, and the rise in 10yr gilt yields (+4.1bps) was more muted than in other countries yesterday, whilst the FTSE 100 (-0.18%) largely matched the STOXX 600. We did get a bit of UK data too, with October mortgage approvals down to 65.0k (vs. 64.5k expected), but that very much kept them within their 60-70k range that they’ve been in for the last 18 months.

Looking forward to today, we’ll see some focus on geopolitics as Trump’s envoy Witkoff is due to meet Russia’s President Putin in Moscow to discuss US proposals to end the war in Ukraine. The visit comes as US-led peace talks intensified over the past couple of weeks with “productive” meetings between US and Ukrainian officials but Kyiv staying resistant to territorial demands that have been made by Moscow.

In terms of the rest of the day ahead, data releases include the Euro Area flash CPI print for November, with Friday’s country-level releases suggesting that headline and core inflation should be unchanged at 2.1% and 2.4% respectively. We'll also see the Euro area unemployment rate for October. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bowman but with the blackout on it won't be about monetary policy.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 08:43

Futures Rebound As Bitcoin Halts Plunge

Zero Hedge -

Futures Rebound As Bitcoin Halts Plunge

After Monday's dismal start to December, US equity futures are higher (if only for the time being), although lacking conviction with few major catalysts on deck today. As of 8:15am, S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 contracts add 0.4%. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly higher led by META (+0.6%) and AMZN (+0.4%). Bond yields are unchanged and the USD is flat. Commodities are mostly mixed: Oil is flat; base metals are all higher (aluminum +0.9%), while precious metals are lower. After the latest post-BOJ bloodbath, bitcoin has managed to hold a modest bid and was trading above $87,000. The US economic calendar is blank for scheduled data releases.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Meta +0.6%, Alphabet +0.5%, Nvidia +0.8%, Amazon +0.7%, Tesla +0.3%, Microsoft +0.05%, Apple -0.1%). 

  • Cloudflare Inc. (NET) gains 2% after Barclays launched coverage on the infrastructure software company with an overweight rating and a $235 price target.
  • Credo Technology (CRDO) rises 18% after the communications equipment company’s second-quarter results came in much stronger than expected. It also gave a strong forecast. Shares of competitor Astera Labs (ALAB) gain 5%.
  • MongoDB (MDB) rallies 23% after the database software company reported stronger-than-expected results. It also raised its full-year forecast.
  • Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) gains 3% after Truist Securities upgraded the theme park operator’s stock to buy from hold.
  • Solaris Energy Infrastructure Inc. (SEI) rises 4% after the data center power generator was initiated at Morgan Stanley with a recommendation of overweight on power supply demand.
  • Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (WBD) inches 1.1% higher. The company was fielding a second round of bids on Monday, including a mostly cash offer from Netflix Inc., in an auction that could wrap up in the coming days or weeks, according to people familiar with the discussions.

In corporate news, The Information reported that Amazon is planning a new ultrafast grocery delivery offering in major US urban areas, sending shares of Instacart lower. Warner Bros. Discovery was said to be fielding a second round of bids on Monday, including a mostly cash offer from Netflix. The Commerce Department agreed to invest as much as $150 million in xLight, a chip technology startup tied to former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger. 

With the market stuck in a holding pattern until the next leg higher or lower, investors are awaiting eco data later this week, and the Fed is now in a blackout period. Black Friday and Cyber Monday offered some clues on the economy, with Bloomberg describing “anxious but still active” consumers, and Salesforce data showing Cyber Monday spending grew more slowly in the US than Europe for the first time as tariffs stung American shoppers.

“For long-only investors like we are, I’d say in the absence of any major catalyst, it’s very much wait-and-see until the Fed meeting, while keeping an eye on US jobs and inflation data,” said Karen Georges, a fund manager at Ecofi Investissements in Paris.

Much now depends on the Fed’s decision at next week’s meeting. Disappointment would pose a risk for equities, though confidence in a cut is virtually certain, with market odds of a cut at 100% following softer labor and inflation data and a run of dovish comments from officials.

“Dips continue to present attractive buying opportunities,” wrote Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. “The narrative behind that bull case remains an attractive one, with earnings growth solid, the underlying economy resilient, a calmer tone on trade continuing to prevail, and the monetary backdrop growing looser.”

Bitcoin is steady today after a more than 5% plunge on Monday which saw almost $1 billion of leveraged crypto positions liquidated. Crypto retail investors who piled into exchange-traded funds tracking Strategy’s volatile stock have paid a heavy price. Both MSTX and MSTU - which offer double the daily return - have dropped more than 80% this year, among the 10 worst-performing funds in the entire US ETF market.

While bitcoin longs were hammered again, so were stock short sellers: they were down $80 billion in mark-to-market losses in the final week of November, wiping out the bulk of what had been nearly $95 billion in month-to-date profits prior to last week, per data compiled by S3 Partners. “Being short here requires high confidence in a much weaker economic backdrop or a significant change in the outlook for AI capex,” said Dennis Debusschere, co-founder and chief market strategist at 22V Research.

Ahead of next week’s Fed decision, Barclays strategists noted that S&P 500 implied moves ahead of FOMC meetings have declined since early 2023, with realized moves hovering near zero recently. It’s a trend that underscores the fading influence of monetary policy, they wrote. 

After hitting a record high just shy of $60, silver pulled back modestly with a technical gauge showing that a six-day rally had pushed the metal into overbought territory. Copper also retreated amid signs that softer Chinese demand heading into winter might help to ease a looming global supply crunch.

Elsewhere, Bloomberg found that among the 14 largest markets, the US currently ranks 5th from last in local-currency terms and 4th from last in dollar terms this year. That raises questions about whether the AI theme will lead it to victory or whether volatility tied to nascent tech exposure is doing more harm than good.

European stocks and US equity futures hold modest gains; the Stoxx 600 rises 0.2%, led by gains in banks, utilities and construction. Bayer soars after the Trump administration urged the Supreme Court to take up the company’s appeal of the Roundup case. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

  • Bayer shares surge as much as 15% after the US solicitor general urged the high court to consider the German company’s appeal targeting thousands of lawsuits blaming its Roundup weedkiller for causing cancer.
  • Bilfinger shares rise as much as 6% after the German company said it aims to achieve an advanced average revenue growth of 8% to 10% annually, elevate its Ebita margin to 8% to 9%, and ensure a cash conversion rate of at least 90% until 2030.
  • Victrex shares jump as much as 11% after JPMorgan said the thermoplastic maker cleared a low bar by beating expectations in the second half. Jefferies noted that a feared dividend cut hasn’t materialized.
  • Biotalys shares rise as much as 8.8% after the Belgian agricultural technology company received regulatory approval from the US Environmental Protection Agency for its first biofungicide, called Evoca.
  • Compagnie des Alpes rises as much as 6.9% following 2025 results from the French ski resort and theme park operator, which CIC Market Solutions describes as “excellent.”
  • Swissquote shares tumble as much as 8.6% after one of its investors offered shares at a discount to the last closing price. Shares fell below the offer price before paring losses.
  • Scandic Hotels drops as much as 8.8% as Morgan Stanley downgrades to underweight from equal-weight, saying the country’s acquisition of Dalata’s hotel operation may not be as profitable as previously expected.
  • Foresight Group shares decline as much as 8.2% after the UK infrastructure and private equity investment management services company’s interim results, with Peel Hunt noting impact from margin compression.
  • Pantheon Resources shares drop as much as 28% after the company’s update on work at the Dubhe-1 well. Canaccord Genuity said markets are still waiting for representative flow rates and that the cost of the work has come in higher than previously forecast.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained, snapping a two-day decline, helped by a rally in tech-heavy markets of South Korea and Taiwan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.5%, before paring gains. TSMC, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were among the biggest boosts to the gauge’s climb. Shares eked out small gains in Japan as banks extended advances on speculation of a Bank of Japan interest-rate hike this month. Growing expectations of an interest rate cut in the US is aiding risk-on in the region. A stabilization in bitcoin also helped sentiment after a selloff in cryptocurrencies led declines in global risk assets on Monday. Shares drop in India, as the rupee hit a record low. Concerns over the lack of a trade deal with the US is weighing on the currency. Benchmarks in China also traded lower. 

In FX, the yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.4% against the dollar and pushing USD/JPY above 156. The euro loses a few pips with little reaction to a surprise uptick in euro-area CPI. The pound is down 0.2%.

In rates, treasury yields are higher, within two basis points of Monday’s close with 10-year trading around 4.11%. Bund and gilts are little changed. In Asia, JGBs were supported after Tuesday’s 10-year auction drew solid demand. The corporate issuance slate is expected to grow following a heavy day on Monday. The IG dollar bond issuance slate is empty so far. Tuesday is expected to bring more US investment-grade bond issuance after around $16 billion of new deals on Monday, led by Merck’s acquisition-related $8 billion eight-part offering.

In commodities, spot gold falls $45 and back below $4,200/oz. US crude futures are treading water at $59.30 a abrrel. 

The US economic calendar is blank for scheduled data releases. Fed members are in external communications blackout ahead of the Dec. 10 policy announcement

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini +0.2%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
  • Russell 2000 mini +0.5%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
  • DAX +0.5%
  • CAC 40 +0.2%
  • 10-year Treasury yield unchanged at 4.09%
  • VIX -0.4 points at 16.85
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1219.09
  • euro little changed at $1.1604
  • WTI crude little changed at $59.34/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • Trump's schedule noted he will host a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday at 11:30am and will make an announcement at 2:00pm. Some expect he could announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair (Hassett's odds are up to 79% on Polymarket). 
  • Senators have about a week before they’re set to vote on soon-to-expire Affordable Care Act subsidies. Most of them already believe the chances for a bipartisan breakthrough by then are roughly zero. Politico
  • US envoy Steve Witkoff is set to meet Vladimir Putin to discuss a Ukraine peace plan as Russia claimed its forces seized Pokrovsk on the Donetsk frontline. A fourth Russia-connected tanker in less than a week was attacked today. BBG
  • Officially, the search for a new Federal Reserve chair is still under way. A handful of finalists are scheduled to sit down for interviews beginning this week with Vice President JD Vance and senior White House staff. Unofficially, the process seems to be all but over, with President Trump appearing to favor longtime adviser Kevin Hassett. If Hassett does end up the nominee, it will be because he met Trump’s two key criteria: loyalty, and credibility with the markets. WSJ
  • OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman told employees Monday that the company was declaring a “code red” effort to improve the quality of ChatGPT and delaying other products as a result. OpenAI plans to launch a new reasoning model next week that the company claims outperforms Gemini 3. WSJ
  • The world economy is weathering Trump’s trade tariffs better than expected, the OECD said. It raised its US and euro-area growth forecasts. Still, it continues to predict global growth will slow to 2.9% in 2026, from 3.2% in 2025. BBG
  • China is expected to ramp up US soybean purchases this month to meet a pledge to buy at least 12 million tons by year-end, led by state firms like Cofco, traders said. So far, only about 3 million have been booked. BBG
  • Strong demand for Japanese government bonds helped to steady Asian markets on Tuesday, a day after hawkish comments from the central bank governor sparked a global selloff. FT
  • Europe’s headline CPI for Nov ran a bit warmer than anticipated at +2.2% (vs. the Street +2.1% and up from +2.1% in Oct) while the core number was inline at +2.4% (and steady vs. Oct). BBG
  • Members of the House of Representatives are quitting Congress at a record rate, with Republican retirements and resignations outpacing Democrats by a nearly 2-to-1 ratio in the first 11 months of the year. In previous cycles, the party with more departures tends to lose seats — if not the majority. Axios
  • Apple plans not to follow the order by the Indian government to preload phones with a state-run cyber safety app, according to Reuters, citing sources; Co. to voice its concerns around privacy and security following new app order

Trade/Tariffs

  • Chinese rare-earth magnet companies are reportedly finding workarounds to their government’s export restrictions, as they seek to keep sales flowing to Western buyers, according to WSJ.
  • China reportedly issues first rare earth magnet general export licence after the Trump-Xi meeting, according to Reuters sources
  • Exxon (XOM) is reportedly in talks with Iraq over purchasing Lukoil's stake in the West Qurna 2 oilfield, via Reuters citing sources.
  • Russia's Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov says that Russia continues to be an important supplier of energy to India on a competitive basis. Looking at possibilities to increase imports from India. A decrease in oil trade volumes can be decreased for a brief period of time.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsqsuawk

APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as the region shrugged off the weak lead from Wall Street, but with the upside capped amid quiet macro catalysts and in the absence of any tier-1 data. ASX 200 eked mild gains with the help of outperformance in energy, resources and mining, but with gains limited by underperformance in tech and utilities, while data was uninspiring with a larger-than-expected contraction in building approvals. Nikkei 225 nursed some of the prior day's losses but with the rebound contained amid risks of a BoJ December hike. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp mostly traded mixed as participants reflected on a slew of monthly auto sales updates, while the mainland lagged after the PBoC's open market operations resulted in a net daily drain of CNY 146bln.

Top Asian News

  • RBNZ Governor Breman said she will discuss with the MPC the possibility of being more transparent with how members vote, while she added that the mandate is very clear that we should focus on keeping inflation low and stable. Breman said that they aim to support a healthy, strong and growing economy, but keep inflation low and stable. It was separately reported that the RBNZ is to begin weekly open-market operations from December 4th and will update changes to the format in Q1 2026.
  • Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has completed development of its 6th-gen HBM4 and is entering full-scale mass production, via AJUNews.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) started the session flat/incrementally firmer before then catching a bid as the morning progressed; no clear driver for the upside, but a move which has sustained as indices reside near peaks. European sectors hold a slight positive bias. Banks take the top spot, with gains broad-based across the UK and Europe, but traders may also be digesting the latest update via the BoE, where it lowered capital requirements for UK banks as they pass stress tests. Media is found at the foot of the pile, joined closely by Travel & Leisure.

Top European News

  • Confederation of British Industry said Britain's private sector expects output to decline during the next three months in the gloomiest outlook since May as cautious consumer spending and cost pressures continue to weigh on businesses.
  • BoE Financial Policy Committee Record: System-wide level of Tier 1 capital requirements is now around 13% of risk-weighted assets, 1ppt lower than its previous benchmark of around 14%. CCyB maintained at 2%. "The Committee has also identified areas for further work, including on buffer usability, the implementation of the leverage ratio in the UK, and initiatives by the Bank to respond to feedback on interactions, proportionality, and complexity. Committee supports the Bank’s plans for a private markets system-wide exploratory scenario (SWES)".
  • OECD sees global growth of 3.2% in 2025 (maintained from prev. forecast), 2.9% in 2026 (maintained), 3.1% in 2027 (new forecast).
  • UK OBR's Miles says it was not misleading for Chancellor Reeves to have said that the situation with public finances was very challenging. 
  • BoE Governor Bailey says he expects banks to support the economy through lending following recent capital changes. 

FX

  • DXY and most G10 FX are uneventful in relatively quiet trade, with a similar lack of macro drivers seen during APAC hours. Specifically, DXY resides in a narrow 99.38-99.52 parameter, with ING calling for a lower dollar this week - "we expect that the remainder of the week will validate the market’s dovish pricing for next week’s Fed meeting". As it stands, the index trades at the upper end of the mentioned ranges, with recent strength thanks to some pressure seen in the GBP.
  • EUR traded flat ahead of the EZ HICP metrics, and then was little moved on the release itself. Headline printed a touch above expected at 2.20% (exp. 2.10%) whilst the Services figure also ticked higher from the prior month. Overall, given the figures were near enough in line with expectations, there was little follow-through into the single-currency and held within a 1.1604 to 1.1616 range, before then touching 1.1600 as the USD picked up a touch.
  • USD/JPY outperforms amid a pick-up in risk sentiment and after the pair's volatile Monday session, which saw a slump to 154.66 lows before bouncing back up and clear of 155.50 and then 156.00, with the pair eyeing yesterday's 156.15 peak as the near-term resistance level, and thereafter Black Friday's 156.58 high.
  • GBP traded flat against the USD, before then moving lower in recent trade. Nothing behind the latest bout of pressure, but it does come after Cable breached 1.3200 to the downside, and then continued to tumble to make a fresh trough at 1.3180 (though it is a moving target).
  • AUD outperforms after ANZ removed its call for an RBA cut in H1-2026, now sees the RBA on an "extended pause" through 2026. As a reminder, CBA and NAB also expect the RBA to be on hold for an extended period of time/foreseeable future. Westpac continues to expect two 2026 cuts, touting May and August for those. AUD/NZD marginally eclipsed 1.1450, from a 1.1418 trough.

Fixed Income

  • A lack of fresh drivers for USTs. The March contract is near-enough flat in a narrow 112-25 to 112-29 band. Overnight, WSJ's Timiraos wrote that, regarding the search for the next Fed Chair, "Unofficially, the process seems to be all but over, with President Trump appearing to favour longtime adviser Kevin Hassett.".
  • Bund Dec'25 is contained in a thin 128.18-35 band this morning. Specifics light. No move in Bunds on the EZ Flash HICP for November, the headline came in hotter-than-expected and ticked up from the prior, while Services lifted from the previous rate. Overall, the hotter-than-expected series chimes with the view that the ECB's easing cycle has likely concluded.
  • Gilts underperform. If the move continues, we look to support for the Gilt Mar'26 contract at 90.53, a double-bottom from the session of and before the Budget. Currently, the low is 90.98, taking out Monday's base by a tick. A move that lifted the UK 10yr yield back above the 4.5% mark. However, this pressure proved somewhat fleeting as the benchmark bounced and has made its way back to the unchanged mark. Nothing fresh, though the OBR briefing is underway and we note remarks from BoE officials on the morning's FSR/FPC briefings.
  • Saudi National Bank is seeking a USD 1bln syndicated loan, via Bloomberg. Loan is being syndicated to the broader market, incl. Asia, according to sources cited.
  • JGB's led overnight after a strong 10yr auction and in a bit of a breather from the largely Ueda-induced selling seen at the start of the week. To a 134.72 peak with gains of just over 20 ticks at best.
  • UK sells GBP 1bln 0.125% 2031 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.88x (prev. 3.49x), real yield 0.949% (prev. 0.889%)
  • Germany sells EUR 3.563bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.00% 2027 Schatz: b/c 1.7x (prev. 1.7x), average yield 2.05% (prev. 1.98%), retention 20.82% (prev. 24.68%)

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent continue to trade within Monday's post-OPEC range of USD 58.83-59.97/bbl and USD 62.69-63.82/bbl, respectively, as a pause in output hike and rising geopolitical concerns continue to support crude prices in the near term. WTI and Brent peaked at the start of the APAC session at USD 59.67/bbl and 63.36/bbl before falling to troughs of 59.09/bbl and 62.88/bbl.
  • XAU and XAG traded muted at the start of the European session. Oscillated in a tight USD 4201-4236/oz and USD 56.60-58/oz band, respectively. More recently, the yellow metal has fallen to make fresh session troughs of USD 4,181/oz - a move which lacked catalysts, but technicians highlight accelerating selling pressure after spot gold slipped below USD 4.2k/oz.
  • 3M LME Copper gapped lower and fell to a trough of USD 11.12k/t before rebounding to a session high of USD 11.27k/t as global risk tone slightly turns around following Monday's selloff.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Arab media reported new Israeli attacks in Khan Yunis and Rafah, according to Iran International.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • European Commission proposals for the Ukraine reparation loan should be distributed to member states tomorrow, and likely first discussion by EU ambassadors on Friday, according to Radio Liberty journalist
  • Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov is to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday.
  • Russia's Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov says US Special Envoy Witkoff and President Putin will discuss the understanding reached between the US and Ukraine, in a meeting at 14:00GMT/09:00EST, via TASS. S-400 and SU-57 fighter jets will be on the agenda.

Geopolitics: Other

  • Venezuelan President Maduro reportedly asked for sanction removal for more than 100 officials during a previous call with US President Trump. Furthermore, Trump gave Maduro a Friday deadline to leave Venezuela with his family, while the failure to meet the Friday deadline prompted Trump's comments on Saturday about the closure of airspace, according to sources cited by Reuters.
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Treasury is investigating allegations that Minnesota tax dollars may have been diverted to Al-Shabaab.
  • China's Coast Guard said it expelled a Japanese vessel in the waters of the Senkaku Islands on Tuesday.
  • "Turkey says oil tanker attacked in Black Sea while sailing from Russia to Georgia", according to Sky News Arabia. However, Sky News Arabia later clarifies, "Turkey says cargo ship attacked in Black Sea while sailing from Russia to Georgia".
  • Japan's Defence Minister Koizumi is considering a visit to the US as early as mid-January to hold talks with War Secretary Hegseth, via Kyodo.

US Event Calendar

  • Nov Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 15.4m, prior 15.32m
  • 10:00 am: Fed’s Bowman Testifies Before House Committee

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets got December off to a rocky start yesterday, with bonds and equities losing ground, alongside a sharp slump in Bitcoin (-5.19%). The moves gathered pace right from the open, as hawkish remarks from BoJ Governor Ueda had already pushed 10yr JGB yields up to a post-GFC high. But that then cascaded across global markets, with bond yields moving sharply higher in the US and Europe too. In the meantime, matters weren’t helped by the latest data, as the ISM manufacturing print leant in a stagflationary direction, whilst higher oil prices only exacerbated those fears. So with all said and done, the S&P 500 (-0.53%) slipped back, whilst 10yr Treasury yields (+7.2bps) saw their biggest daily jump in nearly four weeks.

Those developments in Japan were critical for yesterday’s moves, because Ueda’s comments had led investors to price in a December rate hike from the BoJ as a near-certainty. So that meant bond yields hit a whole bunch of new records, and by the close in Japan yesterday, the 10yr yield (+5.8bps) was at a post-2008 high of 1.86%, whilst the 30yr yield (+4.1bps) was at 3.37%, and the highest since that maturity was first issued in the late-1990s. Similarly at the front end, the 2yr yield closed above 1% for the first time since the GFC. This morning yields on 2yr and 10yr JGBs are both down a basis point after a decent 10yr auction has provided some respite to the bond sell-off. The bid-to-cover ratio was recorded at 3.59, compared to 2.97 at the previous sale in November, and a 12-month average of 3.20.

US futures are also fairly flat, indicating that the sell-off has paused for now. The KOSPI (+1.81%) is leading the way in Asia after rebounding from yesterday and after the US announced that the general tariff rate on imports from South Korea, including automobiles, will decrease to 15% retroactively effective from November 1. In other markets, the Nikkei (+0.24%) is recovering a little this morning after a near two percent decline yesterday, while the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.11%) is also experiencing modest gains. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng (+0.13%) is maintaining small gains, in contrast to the CSI (-0.61%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.55%), which are lower after a stronger session on Monday.  

The moves in Japan echoed around the world yesterday, with a sharp bond selloff on both sides of the Atlantic. For instance, Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+4.0bps) up to 3.53%, the 10yr yield (+7.2bps) rose to 4.09%, and 30yrs (+7.4bps) to 4.74%. Moreover, those moves got further support from several inflationary indicators, including the ISM manufacturing survey. Admittedly, the headline index unexpectedly fell back to 48.2 (vs. 49.0 expected), but the prices paid component ticked up to 58.5 (vs. 57.5 expected) after a run of 4 consecutive monthly declines. So that exacerbated concerns about tariff-driven inflation persisting. And with oil prices rising (+1.27% for Brent) after Ukraine’s weekend attack against an oil terminal in the Black Sea, the 1yr inflation swap (+1.7bps) also posted a 4th consecutive increase to 2.64%.

That downbeat tone was seen for equities too, where the S&P 500 (-0.53%) fell back after a run of 5 consecutive gains, and the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.25%) saw an even bigger slump. Nearly three quarters of the S&P constituents were lower on the day, though the index did recover some ground after futures in Asia had suggested an even larger fall. The Mag-7 (-0.10%) outperformed as Nvidia (+1.65%) rebounded from Friday’s -1.81% decline. By contrast, crypto assets suffered, with Bitcoin (-5.19%) falling to $86,446 by the close, and trading below $84k intra-day. Unsurprisingly, that meant there were sizeable losses for crypto-related stocks like Coinbase (-4.76%). Overnight Bitcoin has bounced a little.

Earlier in Europe, markets had followed a very similar pattern, with bonds and equities selling off together. So the STOXX 600 (-0.20%) also fell back after 5 consecutive gains, and there was a particularly sharp decline for the German DAX (-1.04%). And there wasn’t much data capable of boosting the mood either, with the Euro Area manufacturing PMI revised down a tenth from the flash reading to 49.6, so still in contractionary territory. Meanwhile, yields on 10yr bunds (+6.1bps), OATs (+7.5bps) and BTPs (+6.9bps) all moved higher.

Here in the UK, we also heard yesterday that the head of the OBR budget watchdog had resigned, which comes after their analysis of the budget’s contents went live on its website ahead of the Chancellor’s announcement. However, that wasn’t a market moving story, and the rise in 10yr gilt yields (+4.1bps) was more muted than in other countries yesterday, whilst the FTSE 100 (-0.18%) largely matched the STOXX 600. We did get a bit of UK data too, with October mortgage approvals down to 65.0k (vs. 64.5k expected), but that very much kept them within their 60-70k range that they’ve been in for the last 18 months.

Looking forward to today, we’ll see some focus on geopolitics as Trump’s envoy Witkoff is due to meet Russia’s President Putin in Moscow to discuss US proposals to end the war in Ukraine. The visit comes as US-led peace talks intensified over the past couple of weeks with “productive” meetings between US and Ukrainian officials but Kyiv staying resistant to territorial demands that have been made by Moscow.

In terms of the rest of the day ahead, data releases include the Euro Area flash CPI print for November, with Friday’s country-level releases suggesting that headline and core inflation should be unchanged at 2.1% and 2.4% respectively. We'll also see the Euro area unemployment rate for October. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bowman but with the blackout on it won't be about monetary policy.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 08:43

Costco Sues For Refunds Before Supreme Court Rules On Tariff Legality

Zero Hedge -

Costco Sues For Refunds Before Supreme Court Rules On Tariff Legality

Authored by Rob Sabo via The Epoch Times,

Retail giant Costco Wholesale Corporation filed a lawsuit against the U.S. government on Nov. 28 in an effort to lay the groundwork for refunds of tariffs collected since President Donald Trump enacted global tariff policies under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

The complaint filed in the U.S. Court of International Trade in Manhattan argued that the president’s invocation of the act beginning in February illegally imposed tariffs on goods imported from Mexico, Canada, and China. Trump has said that tariffs were justified as a matter of national emergency because of the amount of fentanyl making its way into the United States from those countries, and that the global levies are a necessary tool to negotiate trade deals that level the playing field between the United States and key global trade partners.

The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments regarding Trump’s authorization to invoke the IEEPA in early November. The issue has been fast-tracked, but the justices have not announced when they intend to make a ruling. Costco’s complaint requests a complete refund of duties it has already paid if the Supreme Court decides that the tariffs are unlawful.

Additionally, Costco is seeking “an injunction preventing Defendants from imposing further duties on it under the executive orders challenged in this lawsuit; and full refund from Defendants of all IEEPA duties Plaintiff has already paid to the United States as a result of the executive orders challenged in this lawsuit, as well as those it will continue to pay,” its lawyers wrote.

The complaint was filed after Costco was denied a request for additional time to finalize its tariff calculations assessed on imported goods. That decision could impact the company’s ability to collect a refund in full if the tariffs are invalidated, the company’s lawyers argue.

The lawsuit does not say how much Costco has paid in tariffs; however, revenue from tariffs has soared throughout the year. For fiscal year 2025, the federal government collected nearly $196 billion in duties, taxes, and fees—a 122 percent increase from the prior fiscal year.

On Aug. 29, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled in a 7-4 decision that Trump’s global tariff policies were illegal, sending the case to the nation’s highest court. The tariffs remain in place while the justices consider the case.

More than a dozen states have sued the Trump Administration over the president’s tariff policies. In April, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, and Vermont filed suit against the president, arguing that only Congress has the power to enact tariff policies. California filed a similar suit.

The states join a growing list of companies that have filed similar suits, including Revlon Consumer Products LLC, Kawasaki Motors Manufacturing Corporation, Bumble Bee, Yokohama Tire, and EssilorLuxottica.

Costco did not immediately respond to a request for comment by The Epoch Times.

Kush Desai, White House spokesperson, said in a statement sent to The Epoch Times: “The economic consequences of the failure to uphold President Trump’s lawful tariffs are enormous and this suit highlights that fact.

“The White House looks forward to the Supreme Court’s speedy and proper resolution of this matter.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 08:40

Costco Sues For Refunds Before Supreme Court Rules On Tariff Legality

Zero Hedge -

Costco Sues For Refunds Before Supreme Court Rules On Tariff Legality

Authored by Rob Sabo via The Epoch Times,

Retail giant Costco Wholesale Corporation filed a lawsuit against the U.S. government on Nov. 28 in an effort to lay the groundwork for refunds of tariffs collected since President Donald Trump enacted global tariff policies under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

The complaint filed in the U.S. Court of International Trade in Manhattan argued that the president’s invocation of the act beginning in February illegally imposed tariffs on goods imported from Mexico, Canada, and China. Trump has said that tariffs were justified as a matter of national emergency because of the amount of fentanyl making its way into the United States from those countries, and that the global levies are a necessary tool to negotiate trade deals that level the playing field between the United States and key global trade partners.

The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments regarding Trump’s authorization to invoke the IEEPA in early November. The issue has been fast-tracked, but the justices have not announced when they intend to make a ruling. Costco’s complaint requests a complete refund of duties it has already paid if the Supreme Court decides that the tariffs are unlawful.

Additionally, Costco is seeking “an injunction preventing Defendants from imposing further duties on it under the executive orders challenged in this lawsuit; and full refund from Defendants of all IEEPA duties Plaintiff has already paid to the United States as a result of the executive orders challenged in this lawsuit, as well as those it will continue to pay,” its lawyers wrote.

The complaint was filed after Costco was denied a request for additional time to finalize its tariff calculations assessed on imported goods. That decision could impact the company’s ability to collect a refund in full if the tariffs are invalidated, the company’s lawyers argue.

The lawsuit does not say how much Costco has paid in tariffs; however, revenue from tariffs has soared throughout the year. For fiscal year 2025, the federal government collected nearly $196 billion in duties, taxes, and fees—a 122 percent increase from the prior fiscal year.

On Aug. 29, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled in a 7-4 decision that Trump’s global tariff policies were illegal, sending the case to the nation’s highest court. The tariffs remain in place while the justices consider the case.

More than a dozen states have sued the Trump Administration over the president’s tariff policies. In April, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, and Vermont filed suit against the president, arguing that only Congress has the power to enact tariff policies. California filed a similar suit.

The states join a growing list of companies that have filed similar suits, including Revlon Consumer Products LLC, Kawasaki Motors Manufacturing Corporation, Bumble Bee, Yokohama Tire, and EssilorLuxottica.

Costco did not immediately respond to a request for comment by The Epoch Times.

Kush Desai, White House spokesperson, said in a statement sent to The Epoch Times: “The economic consequences of the failure to uphold President Trump’s lawful tariffs are enormous and this suit highlights that fact.

“The White House looks forward to the Supreme Court’s speedy and proper resolution of this matter.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 08:40

Final Look at Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales

A brief excerpt:
After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in October.

There were several key stories for October:

• Sales NSA are essentially unchanged YoY through October, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995! And the YoY comparisons for November and December will be more difficult.

• Sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) have bounced around 4 million for the last 3 years.

• Months-of-supply is above pre-pandemic levels.

• The median price is up 2.1% YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see further price declines - and we might see national price declines later this year (or in 2026).

Sales at 4.10 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were at the consensus estimate.

Sales averaged close to 5.38 million SAAR for the month of October in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 24% below pre-pandemic levels.
...
Local Markets Closed Existing Home SalesIn October, sales in these markets were up 2.4% YoY. Last month, in September, these same markets were up 7.7% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales were up 2.9% YoY NSA, so this sample is close.

Important: There were the same number of working days in October 2025 (22) as in October 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was similar to the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
More local data coming in December for activity in November!
There is much more in the article.

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Copper Hits Record High; Goldman Warns A "Circular Melt-Up" Is Now Driving Global Market

Zero Hedge -

Copper Hits Record High; Goldman Warns A "Circular Melt-Up" Is Now Driving Global Market

Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange broke out of the post-Thanksgiving trading range and into record-high territory on a massive tariff-driven scramble for supply.

Copper jumped nearly 1% on the LME to $11,294.50/ton, while Comex futures surged 1.6%, blowing out the US-London spread as traders scramble to rush metal into the U.S. ahead of potential Trump-era import tariffs.

The arbitrage continues to pull supply from the rest of the world into the U.S., compounding a year already plagued with unexpected mine outages and tightening fears.

Goldman's commodity specialist, James McGeoch, commented on this dynamic, calling it a "circular melt-up":

Post Thanksgiving – breakout in Copper: Have been watching LME, that $11,100 level, now 3 times, it's felt like a coiled spring, we have seen it in precious this year (Gold, Silver, PGM's), so why not pivot to the Doctor. As we do just remember commodities are highly emotive, basis the touch point at all levels of life, they rarely move in linear fashion, overreact up and overreact down, look at the awakening in Rare Earths in 2025. Whilst the CESCO feedback from a bottom-up perspective was kinda meh (China -8% QTD, y/y, worth noting YTD +7% y/y to end Oct), it's the balances that matter. This wasn't a conference about mine supply, or Chinese Q4 demand, this was dominated by the traders and the desire to purchase and ship into the Comex (U.S.) arb. GS commods sales were on the ground (feedback link), outside China they note EUR demand <2019 and they suggest positioning is 5/10….

I liken this to a "circular melt-up." The tighter LME gets tighter basis US (CMX arb) pull, the stronger the LME backwardation, which in turn tightens the CMX arb as the forward curve is underpinned by stock builds….. Circular motion – LME stock contraction, CMX arb strengthens…. Those watching supply have for some time been looking at 1H26: Grasberg tightness, Kakalua stockpiles rundown, Codelco friction, Collahuasi weakness, QB sustains lower rates. China smelter utilisation rates at record lows, copper premiums at record highs, TC settlement structures are breaking… there is nothing the Chinese can do about it, and in the meantime the U.S. is sitting whistling Dixie as stocks get onshored, it's a strategic stockpile, basis the "threat" of tariffs, that they so desperately need and the traders are providing the balance sheet. Who would have thought 12 months ago that the U.S. would be the only game in town when it comes to copper. By luck or by design, Uncle Sam holds all the aces…. I think last week's move was the hangover of CESCO washing off and traders realising that near term the asymmetry is higher. … Colleagues gone reminded us daily, commodities are spot assets, they are not traded in Excel models, they are art as much as science. Go back to summer, the same traders that owned CMX at 500, sold it at 550/575, the guys that got slammed as the unwind happened were machines. It's these same buyers today stepping in.

Year-to-date, copper is up 30% on the LME as investors pile in - both on the lucrative U.S. arbitrage trade that is fueling shortages elsewhere, and on long-term structural demand from the "Next AI Trade" and major power-grid buildouts.

Commenting on copper markets, super-bull Kostas Bintas of Mercuria told Bloomberg that the U.S. tariff arbitrage is draining global inventories and is about to ignite another leg higher in prices.

"This is the big one," Bintas told the media outlet in an interview during an industry conference in Shanghai. "If the world keeps going like this we will be left without copper cathodes in the rest of the world."

Bintas continued, "Just looking at the facts, mathematically… What is going to happen if all of this continues? There's only one answer: there will be tightness and a higher price."

Last March, Bintas forecasted that copper prices could reach $12,000 or $13,000 a ton, driven by U.S. import drawdowns.

"China is, for now at least, not the marginal buyer," said Nick Snowdon, Mercuria's head of metals and mining research. "That role has now shifted to the US."

Bintas noted, "If we run to $12,000 or $15,000 or whatever it is, the SHFE will take time to catch up. You're going to see a lot of Chinese copper cathodes coming out. And then when the Chinese will come back from Chinese New Year, there will not be enough copper cathodes." He said more than half a million tons could arrive in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2026.

Related:

Earlier this year, Jeff Currie, who led commodities research at Goldman for nearly three decades and now serves as the chief strategy officer of the energy pathways team at Carlyle Group, told Bloomberg's Odd Lots that copper is the "most compelling trade I've seen in my 30-year trading career."

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 08:20

Copper Hits Record High; Goldman Warns A "Circular Melt-Up" Is Now Driving Global Market

Zero Hedge -

Copper Hits Record High; Goldman Warns A "Circular Melt-Up" Is Now Driving Global Market

Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange broke out of the post-Thanksgiving trading range and into record-high territory on a massive tariff-driven scramble for supply.

Copper jumped nearly 1% on the LME to $11,294.50/ton, while Comex futures surged 1.6%, blowing out the US-London spread as traders scramble to rush metal into the U.S. ahead of potential Trump-era import tariffs.

The arbitrage continues to pull supply from the rest of the world into the U.S., compounding a year already plagued with unexpected mine outages and tightening fears.

Goldman's commodity specialist, James McGeoch, commented on this dynamic, calling it a "circular melt-up":

Post Thanksgiving – breakout in Copper: Have been watching LME, that $11,100 level, now 3 times, it's felt like a coiled spring, we have seen it in precious this year (Gold, Silver, PGM's), so why not pivot to the Doctor. As we do just remember commodities are highly emotive, basis the touch point at all levels of life, they rarely move in linear fashion, overreact up and overreact down, look at the awakening in Rare Earths in 2025. Whilst the CESCO feedback from a bottom-up perspective was kinda meh (China -8% QTD, y/y, worth noting YTD +7% y/y to end Oct), it's the balances that matter. This wasn't a conference about mine supply, or Chinese Q4 demand, this was dominated by the traders and the desire to purchase and ship into the Comex (U.S.) arb. GS commods sales were on the ground (feedback link), outside China they note EUR demand <2019 and they suggest positioning is 5/10….

I liken this to a "circular melt-up." The tighter LME gets tighter basis US (CMX arb) pull, the stronger the LME backwardation, which in turn tightens the CMX arb as the forward curve is underpinned by stock builds….. Circular motion – LME stock contraction, CMX arb strengthens…. Those watching supply have for some time been looking at 1H26: Grasberg tightness, Kakalua stockpiles rundown, Codelco friction, Collahuasi weakness, QB sustains lower rates. China smelter utilisation rates at record lows, copper premiums at record highs, TC settlement structures are breaking… there is nothing the Chinese can do about it, and in the meantime the U.S. is sitting whistling Dixie as stocks get onshored, it's a strategic stockpile, basis the "threat" of tariffs, that they so desperately need and the traders are providing the balance sheet. Who would have thought 12 months ago that the U.S. would be the only game in town when it comes to copper. By luck or by design, Uncle Sam holds all the aces…. I think last week's move was the hangover of CESCO washing off and traders realising that near term the asymmetry is higher. … Colleagues gone reminded us daily, commodities are spot assets, they are not traded in Excel models, they are art as much as science. Go back to summer, the same traders that owned CMX at 500, sold it at 550/575, the guys that got slammed as the unwind happened were machines. It's these same buyers today stepping in.

Year-to-date, copper is up 30% on the LME as investors pile in - both on the lucrative U.S. arbitrage trade that is fueling shortages elsewhere, and on long-term structural demand from the "Next AI Trade" and major power-grid buildouts.

Commenting on copper markets, super-bull Kostas Bintas of Mercuria told Bloomberg that the U.S. tariff arbitrage is draining global inventories and is about to ignite another leg higher in prices.

"This is the big one," Bintas told the media outlet in an interview during an industry conference in Shanghai. "If the world keeps going like this we will be left without copper cathodes in the rest of the world."

Bintas continued, "Just looking at the facts, mathematically… What is going to happen if all of this continues? There's only one answer: there will be tightness and a higher price."

Last March, Bintas forecasted that copper prices could reach $12,000 or $13,000 a ton, driven by U.S. import drawdowns.

"China is, for now at least, not the marginal buyer," said Nick Snowdon, Mercuria's head of metals and mining research. "That role has now shifted to the US."

Bintas noted, "If we run to $12,000 or $15,000 or whatever it is, the SHFE will take time to catch up. You're going to see a lot of Chinese copper cathodes coming out. And then when the Chinese will come back from Chinese New Year, there will not be enough copper cathodes." He said more than half a million tons could arrive in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2026.

Related:

Earlier this year, Jeff Currie, who led commodities research at Goldman for nearly three decades and now serves as the chief strategy officer of the energy pathways team at Carlyle Group, told Bloomberg's Odd Lots that copper is the "most compelling trade I've seen in my 30-year trading career."

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 08:20

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