Allegations Of Pentagon "Casualty Cover-Up": The Intercept

Well-known national security news site The Intercept has issued fresh reporting which alleges a Pentagon cover-up when it comes to mounting US casualties from Trump's Operation Epic Fury. Speculation and questions have lately surged among the public and analysts given that casualty updates put out by the Pentagon have been very few and far between. It actually accuses the Pentagon of shoddy record-keeping going back significantly before the current Iran war.

Currently the official numbers... "Since the start of Operation Epic Fury, approximately 303 US service members have been wounded," CENTCOM spokesman Tim Hawkins said earlier this week. And, as of April 2nd, 13 US service members have been confirmed killed going back to the war's start on February 28, 2026. But The Intercept is alleging an astounding "casualty cover-up" by the Trump administration:

Almost 750 U.S. troops have been wounded or killed in the Middle East since October 2023, an analysis by The Intercept has found. But the Pentagon won’t acknowledge it.

U.S. Central Command, or CENTCOM, which oversees military operations in the Middle East, appears to be engaged in what a defense official called a “casualty cover-up,” offering The Intercept low-ball and outdated figures and failing to provide clarifications on military deaths and injuries.

Getty Images

Two officials confirmed that at least 15 soldiers were injured last week in an Iranian strike on a Saudi air base, adding that "Hundreds of US personnel have been killed or injured in the region since the US launched a war on Iran just over a month ago."

The Intercept found that CENTCOM's latest April 2nd casualty count and 'update' to be "three days old and excluded at least 15 wounded in the Friday attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia," noting that "The command did not reply to repeated requests for updated figures." This has raised suspicions that other incidents are being omitted too.

The US military has also declined to provide a confirmed death toll since the start of the Iran war. The Intercept estimates it is "no less than 15" - while Washington has publicly acknowledged no more than 13 fatalities.

"This is, quite obviously, a subject that [War Secretary Pete] Hegseth and the White House want to keep under major wraps," an anonymous defense official was cited in The Intercept as saying. The report ultimately charges the US Army with "hiding losses".

Figures released under President Trump "lack detail and clarity" - The Intercept alleges further. It cites the following incident as but one example:

The Trump administration’s numbers, by comparison, lack detail and clarity. The current CENTCOM casualty figures do not appear to include more than 200 sailors treated for smoke inhalation or otherwise injured due to a fire that raged aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford before it limped off to Souda Bay, Greece, for repairs. CENTCOM did not reply to close to a dozen requests for clarification on the casualty count and related information sent this week.

Recent polls have shown greater American public skepticism toward the war, especially amid talk there could be some kind of ground operation introduced - which the US public overwhelmingly opposes.

Large US casualties related to the Iran war would likely almost immediately result in a revolt against Trump's war among not only the broader US public, but could split the Republican party as well in terms of Iran policy.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 21:45

Why States Are Right To Reject AI Legal Personhood

Authored by Siri Terjesen and Michael Ryall via The Epoch Times,

A quiet but consequential legal movement is gathering momentum. Idaho and Utah have enacted statutes declaring that artificial intelligence systems are not legal persons. Ohio’s House Bill 469 proposes to declare that AI systems are “nonsentient entities” and bars them from acquiring any form of legal personhood. Similar bills are advancing in Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, Missouri, South Carolina, and Washington. The legislatures driving this movement are not technophobes. They are drawing a necessary line that philosophy, law, and common sense all demand.

The pressure in the opposite direction is real. In January, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, historian Yuval Noah Harari described AI as “mastering language.” Since language is the medium through which law, religion, finance, and culture are constituted, AI may soon be capable of acting within every institution humans have built. Harari asked whether countries would recognize AI as legal persons—whether AI could open bank accounts, file lawsuits, and own property without human supervision. The prospect is not science fiction. It is a policy choice, and the wrong choice would be deeply consequential.

Phantasms versus Nous

Aristotle argued in De Anima that all sentient creatures share a basic cognitive capacity to perceive the world, retain impressions of it, and recombine impressions into new configurations—what he called phantasia, imagination. A dog, a crow, and a chess grand master possess this competency.

Aristotle distinguished human beings as categorically different: possessing nous, the capacity to grasp universal, abstract concepts—ideas like justice, causation, and the good—that cannot be derived from any sensory experience alone. A dog can recognize its owner, but it cannot grasp the concept of ownership. A parrot can reproduce a sentence about fairness, but it has no understanding of fairness.

What is the distinction? Can’t we simply feed an AI system Webster’s definition of “fairness” and let it work from there? No—feeding a machine the dictionary definition only gives it more words to pattern-match against—the concept is not in the words. Any child who grasps fairness can apply it correctly to a situation no definition anticipates. AI can only produce text that statistically resembles how humans talked about fairness before.

This is not a gap that more computing power or better training data will close. Computer scientist Judea Pearl demonstrated mathematically that no amount of pattern recognition over observational data can substitute for genuine causal inference. The appearance of understanding is not understanding itself. And it is precisely the capacity for genuine understanding—for deliberating about what is good and right—that grounds moral responsibility, which is the only coherent basis for legal personhood.

The Problem With the Corporate Analogy

Proponents of AI personhood often invoke corporate personhood as precedent. Corporations are not natural persons, yet the law treats them as legal persons capable of owning property, entering contracts, and being sued. Why not extend this pragmatic fiction to AI? The analogy breaks down at accountability.

Corporate personhood is a legal convenience built on human moral agency. Behind every corporation is a structured network of natural persons—board members, executives, shareholders—who bear fiduciary duties, can be deposed and held liable under piercing-the-veil doctrine, and face reputational and criminal consequences for their decisions. The corporation is a vehicle for organizing human action, not a substitute.

Ohio’s HB 469 captures this logic by denying AI legal personhood, prohibiting AI systems from serving as corporate officers or directors, and assigning all liability for AI-caused harm to identifiable human owners, developers, and deployers.

Labeling a system “aligned” or “ethically trained” does not discharge human responsibility. Granting AI legal personhood would shatter this accountability architecture. An AI “person” could own intellectual property, hold financial assets, and bring lawsuits—all without a human principal who can be held responsible. Sophisticated actors could construct chains of AI-owned shell companies that dissolve liability through layers of nominal personhood.

The result would not be extending rights to a new class of beings; it would be creating accountability vacuums that benefit the powerful humans who deploy AI while insulating them from consequence.

The Moral Stakes for Real People

A deeper moral issue underlies all of this. Legal personhood is not merely an administrative category; it carries normative weight. It signals that an entity has standing to make claims, to be wronged, and to bear obligations. Extending that status to systems that cannot genuinely deliberate, cannot suffer, and cannot be held morally responsible would dilute the concept of personhood in ways that could ultimately harm the humans who most need its protections.

We have not yet secured the full benefits of legal personhood for all human beings in practice—for the displaced, stateless, and structurally invisible. Rushing to extend a contested status to machines while that work remains unfinished would be a profound misallocation of moral and legal energy.

None of this requires hostility to AI as a technology. AI systems can be powerful, useful, and—when properly governed—enormously beneficial. What AI systems cannot be is persons. The states passing anti-personhood legislation are preserving something more important than a competitive advantage—a clear chain of human accountability from every AI action to every AI consequence. When an AI system causes harm, there must always be a human who answers for it. That principle is not a constraint on technology; it is the foundation of a just society.

Aristotle taught that law is reason without passion—a framework for coordinating human beings capable of living well together. AI can help us pursue the good life, but it cannot deliberate about what that life requires. As states across the country move to codify this distinction, they are doing exactly what legislatures exist to do—drawing lines that protect persons: all of them, and only them.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 21:20

Putin To Saudi Crown Prince: Russia Ready To Do Everything To Stabilize Mideast Crisis

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Russia is willing to do anything toward bringing stability to the Persian Gulf and Iran crises.  "Russia is counting on an early end to the conflict in the Middle East, and is ready to do everything to bring the situation back to normal," Putin's words were paraphrased in state media as telling Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, who was hosted at the Kremlin.

"We all hope that the conflict will be ended as soon as possible. Yesterday, the US President [Donald] Trump spoke about this. I repeat it again: For our part, we are ready to do everything to bring the situation back to normal, as they say in such cases, to a stable state," Putin said.

"The situation in the region is of common concern to us," Putin added. He also on the same day held a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, where the Russian leader's message was similar.

Anadolu Agency

The Kremlin readout of the call indicated that "Both sides emphasized the need for a rapid cessation of hostilities and the intensification of political and diplomatic efforts to achieve a long-term settlement of the conflict."

The timing of the Putin-MbS call is additionally interesting given Ukraine's President Zelensky just did a tour of the Gulf states, seeking to deepen relations based on Ukraine selling small drone technology, capable of defending the skies against threats from Iran. He inked a deal with Riyadh for Ukrainian drone expertise.

According to a review of Ukraine's latest Gulf deal-making in the NY Times:

In the Mideast conflict, Ukraine has sought to shift its image from a recipient of military aid to a supplier. It sees an opening to export its low-cost, innovative designs created during the war with Russia to compensate for shortages of weapons and ammunition. Ukraine’s military often relies on consumer technologies such as virtual-reality goggles for gamers and off-the-shelf drone components.

The agreements under negotiation with the United Arab Emirates and finalized with Qatar extend for 10 years, Mr. Zelensky told reporters on a conference call, and could be worth “billions.” He spoke from Qatar, one of the Persian Gulf states that has been targeted by Iranian drones.

In their call, Putin and Saudi Arabia's crown prince further stressed that "problems with energy production and transportation resulting from the crisis are negatively impacting global energy security."

Both were closely watching whether President Trump's Wednesday night speech would wind down US operations against Iran. This did not happen, however, given Trump issued no timeline while assuring Iran would be hit very hard over at least the next two to three weeks.

But Moscow has still be seen as a beneficiary to the prolonged war, given the US lifted some oil sanctions, and prices have been pushed higher - which means more billions flowing into Russian state coffers.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 20:55

DOJ Sues New Jersey Town Over Natural Gas Ban

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Department of Justice (DOJ) filed a lawsuit against Morris Township in New Jersey over its ban on natural gas and other fossil fuels in newly constructed buildings, the department said in an April 1 statement.

Blue flames from a gas stove at a home in Arlington, Va., on May 3, 2023. Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

The ban “drives up energy costs for everyday American consumers and weakens our Nation’s energy dominance,” the DOJ said.

“Such policies reflect a radical left effort to outlaw federally regulated gas stoves, furnaces, water heaters, dryers, and other appliances that American families rely on daily to cook their meals and heat their homes.”

The lawsuit, filed on March 31 at the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey, takes issue with an ordinance the township passed in 2022.

The ordinance said that beginning Sept. 1, 2022, officials shall not issue a construction permit for any new apartments consisting of 12 or more units unless the building is all-electric.

The ordinance defines an all-electric building as not using natural gas, propane, or oil heaters, or their associated delivery systems—boilers, piping systems, fixtures, and infrastructures—to meet its energy needs.

In its lawsuit, the DOJ argues that the ordinance denies the township’s consumers “reliable, resilient, and affordable energy,” as well as the option to use commonplace gas appliances for heating, cooking, and other household tasks.

Moreover, the township’s ban on natural gas is unlawful, as the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 preempts state and local regulations related to energy efficiency or energy use of any product subject to the federal government’s energy conservation standard, the complaint said.

The DOJ argued that the Ninth Circuit Court recently ruled that banning the installation of natural gas piping in new buildings was preempted by Congress via EPCA. This legal precedent makes Morris Township’s gas ban “invalid.”

The department asked the court to rule the township’s ordinance as “void and unenforceable.”

The Epoch Times reached out to the mayor of Morris Township for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

“Where the federal government has exclusive authority to regulate appliances and infrastructure, we will fight state and local overreach,” Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General Adam Gustafson, from the DOJ’s Environment and Natural Resources Division, said.

“Banning natural gas is illegal. It makes heating, cooking, drying, and other life functions more unaffordable for consumers. This Administration is committed to unleashing American energy and empowering Americans.”

Trump’s Executive Order

In the lawsuit, the DOJ cited President Donald Trump’s April 8, 2025, executive order, titled Protecting American Energy From State Overreach.

State laws and policies that seek to institute climate regulations related to energy weaken America’s national security and bring about financial ruin by pushing up energy costs for families, Trump wrote in the order, adding that such rules undermine federalism by “projecting the regulatory preferences of a few States into all States.”

Trump instructed the Attorney General to take “all appropriate action” necessary to stop the enforcement of state and local laws, policies, and practices that burden the development and use of domestic energy resources.

Attorney General Pamela Bondi said the DOJ’s lawsuit against Morris Township follows two similar successful lawsuits in California.

“Radical environmentalist policies that drive up costs and limit consumer choice will not stand,” Bondi said.

In January, the DOJ filed a lawsuit against Morgan Hill and Petaluma, cities in California, over their natural gas bans.

The DOJ said in the recent statement that due to the lawsuit, both cities recently passed ordinances rescinding natural gas bans.

Meanwhile, a new bill, the Affordable Home Energy Protection Act, which seeks to tackle the issue of local energy restrictions, was introduced last month in the Legislature of New Jersey, where Morris Township is located.

Several localities have attempted to ban or restrict the use of natural gas hookups or combustion-based appliances in newly constructed or renovated buildings without properly considering costs, feasibility, or consumer preferences, the measure said.

The bill explicitly bans state agencies and local governments from adopting any rule that “prohibits or unduly restricts the installation, connection, or use of appliances or heating systems powered by natural gas, propane, or fuel oil in residential or commercial buildings.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 20:30

Australia Considers Emergency Powers To Protect Domestic Gas Supply

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Australia’s government intends to consider using emergency powers to protect domestic natural gas supply in case of a shortfall on its east coast in the third quarter of 2026.

The potential consideration of using such powers would be part of the steps the Albanese Government is taking to secure domestic gas supplies for Australian households and industry as the Middle East conflict disrupts global energy markets.

Australian Minister for Resources, Madeleine King, has given notice of her intention to consider using powers under the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM) to protect Australian energy supplies in the event of a possible east coast domestic gas shortfall in the third quarter of 2026, the winter months Down Under.

The minister will consult with major gas producers over the next 30 days regarding supplies to the domestic market and will make a decision on whether to use the ADGSM by the middle of May, the government said.

“My decision to issue a notice of intent is a precautionary measure that gives me the flexibility to intervene if Australia is at risk of facing an energy shortfall,” King said in a statement.

“The notice does not place any limits on gas exports. Currently, Australia’s domestic market is well supplied with Australian gas.”

Australia remains a reliable gas supplier to international partners, but if there is a risk of domestic supply shortfall, Australians will be priority for energy supplies during the disruption on the global markets caused by the war in the Middle East, the minister said.

On Wednesday, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) said that wholesale gas supply on Australia’s east coast is expected to be tight and large volumes of gas will likely be required from storage to meet demand in the third quarter of 2026.

Apart from gas supply, Australia has moved to protect consumers from soaring fuel prices.

Early this week, the government halved the fuel excise on gasoline and diesel for three months in a bid to alleviate financial stress from spiking fuel prices.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 19:40

Oracle's Dubai Data Center Reportedly Hit As Iran Expands Attack On AI Infrastructure

According to Reuters national security reporter Phil Stewart on X, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has targeted a data center facility operated by Oracle in Dubai. 

IRAN'S REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS SAY THEY HAVE TARGETED ORACLE'S DATA CENTER IN DUBAI - STATE MEDIA

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) April 2, 2026

Not much is known about the IRGC strike on Oracle's data center or what type of air-delivered munitions were involved. There is no word on what damage the facility sustained.

Context on Oracle's data center operations in the Middle East: 

Oracle's Dubai facility is its Oracle Cloud UAE East region, with the region identifier me-dubai-1 and region key DXB. Oracle says the Dubai cloud region is located in Dubai, UAE, and the company also operates a second UAE region in Abu Dhabi. 

Oracle's data center map:

Oracle's status page currently shows no operational issues in Dubai or worldwide. 

On Wednesday, the IRGC targeted Amazon's cloud computing operation in Bahrain. Also, last month, numerous data centers operated by U.S. companies were hit by IRGC drones (read report).

Earlier this week, Sepah News, the IRGC's official news outlet, named 18 U.S. companies with operations in the Middle East that are now considered "legitimate targets."

"From now on, for every assassination, an American company will be destroyed," the RGC-affiliated news outlet said.

The list of companies also included Cisco, HP, Intel, Oracle, IBM, Dell, Palantir, JPMorgan, Tesla, GE, Spire Solutions, Boeing, and UAE-based artificial intelligence company G42.

Related:

• U.S. Alerts Goldman Sachs Paris After Iranian Group Threatens Terror Bombing

One thing the U.S.-Iran conflict has taught the world is that civilian infrastructure is not off limits, as well as the massive security gaps in protecting data centers from cheap drones. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 19:15

The Case Against Federal Reserve Independence

Authored by Alexander William Salter via AmericanMind.org,

It’s illegal in theory and ineffective in practice.

The independence of the Federal Reserve System has become a major source of public controversy. As political leaders signal dissatisfaction with monetary policy, officials and commentators rush to defend the central bank’s insulation from democratic pressure.

We are told, as if it were self-evident, that central bank independence is a pillar of sound economic governance.

But this confidence is misplaced. The economic case for central bank independence is far weaker than its defenders suggest. And the constitutional case is weaker still.

Start with economics. The standard argument is that independent central banks deliver low and stable inflation because they are insulated from short-term political incentives.

Elected officials, facing electoral pressures, might be tempted to juice the economy with artificially loose monetary policy. By contrast, independent technocrats can take the long view.

Early empirical studies did show that countries with independent central banks experienced lower inflation. Yet more recent research has cast doubt on this relationship.

The correlation is sensitive to different samples and methods. In many cases, the supposed benefits of independence disappear entirely.

A more plausible explanation has emerged. Countries that enjoy low and stable inflation share deeper institutional characteristics: respect for the rule of law, stable political systems, and credible commitments to property rights. These are the real foundations of sound money. Central bank independence accompanies these basic governance norms, but its standalone effect is debatable.

This matters for a free-enterprise economy. Monetary policy is not a neutral technocratic exercise. Interest rates are prices: the price of time, risk, and capital. When insulated officials tinker with those prices at their discretion, the result is distorted market signals. Cheap credit can mislead investors, encourage unsustainable projects, and redistribute wealth in opaque ways. Independence does not eliminate politics. It simply hides politics behind a veil of expertise.

If the economic case for independence is overstated, the constitutional case is entirely bunk. The Constitution is clear: Congress holds the power “to coin Money” and “regulate the Value thereof.” Monetary authority, like all legislative power, originates with the people’s representatives. Congress may delegate certain functions to administrative bodies, including by creating a central bank. But delegation is not abdication. Those who exercise delegated authority remain accountable to the laws Congress passes and, ultimately, to the chief executive charged with enforcing them.

Yet the modern Fed operates as if our constitutional framework were irrelevant. Its leaders enjoy significant protection from removal. Its decisions (targeting interest rates, allocating credit, regulating banks, etc.) have sweeping consequences for the entire economy. If this does not constitute the exercise of executive power, it is hard to say what does.

The Supreme Court has recently emphasized that administrative agencies cannot be insulated from presidential oversight simply because they possess technical expertise.

The separation of powers does not yield to convenience, nor to the promise of better policy outcomes.

Yet when it comes to the Federal Reserve, the Court has signaled a willingness to tolerate precisely such insulation—a “special case” for the most powerful economic institution in the country.

This exception is indefensible. Appeals to history or prudence, however well-grounded, are not constitutional arguments. An agency that wields executive power must answer to the chief executive. Concerns about how that works in practice does not justify ignoring the Constitution.

The truth is that central bank independence persists not because it is firmly grounded in law or economics, but because the alternative unsettles us. We worry, not without reason, that elected officials might misuse monetary policy for short-term gain. But the Constitution does not permit us to resolve that fear by concentrating vast economic power in the hands of unaccountable experts. A free and self-governing people must confront the difficult task of designing institutions that combine competence with accountability.

That begins with Congress. There are several legislative reforms that can restore the rule of law to monetary policy. First, lawmakers should narrow the Federal Reserve’s mandate to a single, clear objective—price stability—rather than the vague and conflicting goals it currently pursues. A simpler mandate would make it easier to evaluate performance and hold policymakers responsible when they fail.

Second, Congress should revisit the legal protections that shield senior Fed officials from removal. Freedom of judgment is one thing; freedom from oversight is another. Officials entrusted with such consequential authority must ultimately answer to elected leadership. Legislators ought to make it easier to fire central bankers.

Finally, the president should take a more active role in ensuring that the Fed operates within its statutory and constitutional bounds. This does not mean dictating day-to-day interest rate decisions. Instead, it means recognizing that monetary policy, like all exercises of government power, must remain subject to democratic control. President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman is a good start. The two must work together to restore normalcy to the Fed’s everyday operations, something missing since the 2007-08 financial crisis.

Economic stability is obviously desirable. But we cannot purchase it at the cost of self-government.

Republican principles require officials to be answerable to the people.

If we are serious about preserving the constitutional order and free enterprise, we must abandon the comforting myths of central bank independence and restore accountability to the Federal Reserve.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 18:50

"Save Every Drop Of Fuel": South Korea Tells Citizens To Conserve, Ride Public Transit Amid Energy Shock

The Gulf energy shock is now hitting Asian economies with full force.

In Seoul, President Lee Jae Myung on Thursday urged citizens to "save every drop of fuel," a new sign policymakers are moving quickly into crisis mode as the U.S.-Iran conflict raises the risk of nasty fuel shortages across some of Asia's most energy- and Hormuz-dependent economies.

Lee told lawmakers in a parliamentary address about the urgent need to conserve fuel. He warned that the Middle East crisis has triggered one of the worst energy shocks ever.

"I earnestly appeal to all citizens to actively participate in energy-saving movements in daily lives, such as taking public transportation and conserving electricity," Lee said.

He added, "The current crisis is not a passing shower that quickly subsides, but rather a massive storm whose duration is uncertain, making it all the more severe."

South Korea is trying to offset a collapse in energy imports from the Gulf region, with the Hormuz chokepoint still disrupted as the U.S.-Iran conflict enters its second month.

Lee's government proposed a $17 billion emergency program to cushion households and businesses against fuel price shock.

Seoul has already imposed a fuel price cap, expanded fuel tax cuts, and moved to secure alternative supplies of key petrochemicals such as naphtha, as well as urea for fertilizer.

Seoul also announced it will delay the shutdown of coal-fired power plants and has lifted caps on coal-fired electricity, as coal switching across Asia goes into high gear to offset losses in Gulf energy flows.

In South Asia, India has told coal-fired power plants to crank up power generation. 

Australian officials asked citizens to trade their cars for public transport to conserve fuel. Fuel shortages in the country have become visible in recent weeks because it is highly exposed to Gulf energy flows.

Last month, China halted refined fuel exports to the region to preempt a potential fuel shortage.

JPMorgan analysts recently explained that the energy shockwave from the Iran war is already hitting Asia, with Africa next, then Europe, and shortly thereafter the U.S., especially West Coast states.

Source

The disruption of petrochemical production in the Gulf region has also sparked a global plastics supply crisis. To note, China is the world's largest plastic consumer and producer.

Which country will be next to declare a fuel crisis and urge citizens to take public transportation? 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 18:25

A Second Amendment Roadmap For The Next Attorney General

Authored by Aidan Johnston via Gun Owners of America,

President Trump campaigned on restoring robust protections for the Second Amendment. Yet more than a year into his second term, gun owners feel disillusioned, and many are planning to sit out the midterm elections.

Having viewed President Trump’s election as a generational opportunity to course-correct, the stark reality is that not all that much has changed with respect to the nation’s gun laws. Gun owners’ frustration centers not on the Administration’s broader record, but on the large number of times the Department of Justice under Attorney General Pam Bondi has fallen short on gun rights.

Ms. Bondi entered office with a mixed record on the Second Amendment. During her time as Florida’s attorney general, she supported a number of anti-gun restrictions after the Parkland shooting, including red flag laws, raising the age for gun ownership, Florida’s open carry ban, and a ban on bump stocks.

Understandably, then, gun rights groups voiced concerns during her nomination. In retrospect, they were completely justified.

For starters, President Trump ordered Bondi to prepare and submit a report examining Second Amendment infringements. But DOJ then sought an extension, and the deadline for DOJ's report came and went with no public evidence that it was ever delivered. This has left a visible gap where decisive action was promised.

But gun owners aren’t just disappointed in a lack of a public roadmap. DOJ and ATF thus far have failed to curtail three major Biden-era rules that candidate Trump pledged to eliminate in his first week.

First, Biden’s so-called “ghost-gun” regulation survived Supreme Court review in a case that the Trump Department of Justice should have immediately rendered moot.

Second, a regulatory ban on pistol stabilizing braces continues to be enforced against some firearms despite pro-gun injunctions.

Third, Biden’s universal background check rule remains on the books, with DOJ attempting various legal maneuvers to avoid it being struck down.

These unfinished tasks – and many more like them – fuel a narrative of inaction at the department level.

Contrast DOJ’s lack of forward progress on gun rights with progress elsewhere in the administration.

Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon is using the Civil Rights Division to challenge unconstitutional state-level gun controls, earning regular praise from Second Amendment advocates.

The Department of Veterans Affairs restored gun rights to more than 250,000 veterans previously flagged solely for needing fiduciary assistance with benefits.

The Treasury Department rolled back reputational-risk guidance that had pressured banks against serving the firearms industry.

The Department of the Interior expanded hunting access on federal lands.

And , Congress eliminated a century-old $200 tax on suppressors and short-barreled firearms.

But that Congressional enactment merely circles back to another area where Ms. Bondi’s leadership has lagged. After federal lawmakers reduced the National Firearms Act tax from $200 to zero, DOJ inexplicably continued defending related federal registration requirements against litigation by Gun Owners of America and fifteen Republican state attorneys general.

For its part, GOA repeatedly has offered to help DOJ deliver on President Trump’s campaign promises. But those proffers have almost always been rejected or ignored. Rather, we’ve received a number of requests to temper our criticism of Ms. Bondi, so as not to offend her notoriously sensitive feelings.

As a result, public statements proclaiming that Ms. Bondi’s DOJ is the “most pro-Second Amendment administration in history” became a punchline among Trump’s pro-gun base, rather than a rallying point. Among gun owners, the feeling about DOJ has been, ‘with friends like these, who needs enemies?’

Rather than advancing the president’s agenda on the Second Amendment, Bondi protected the institutional interests of the Department of Justice. Under her leadership, DOJ continued defending unconstitutional gun laws, fought to moot promising pro-Second Amendment lawsuits without resolution, slow-walked deregulatory efforts, and repeatedly assured gun owners that the status quo represented the best achievable outcome.

At one point, Bondi even “bragged” to Congress about ATF—an agency that tyrannized gun owners for four years under Joe Biden.

Gun owners did not vote for President Trump merely to preserve business as usual at the DOJ. Rather, they elected him to radically de-weaponize federal power and fundamentally reorient federal priorities toward safeguarding constitutional rights.

The net result is a paradox. Across most of the executive branch and in Congress, the second Trump term has delivered tangible gains for gun owners. Yet polling and grassroots sentiment still show a negative impression of the administration on firearms issues. Nearly all of that discontent traces back to DOJ’s utter failure to deliver on the President’s campaign promises.

The good news is that this problem is easily fixed by whomever becomes the next Attorney General. A clear roadmap exists:

First, announce immediately that the three Biden ATF rules are no longer being enforced. Direct the ATF to cease new prosecutions or administrative actions based on them.

Second, in ongoing litigation, pursue swift settlements that include binding commitments to non-enforcement and regulatory rescission of Biden-era gun control.

Third, instruct the department to stop defending plainly unconstitutional gun laws and regulations in court, consistent with recent Supreme Court precedent.

These steps require no new legislation and can be executed quickly. Implementing them would demonstrate fidelity to the president’s agenda, neutralize a huge source of voter dissatisfaction, and energize the gun-rights community ahead of the midterms.

Time is short. The midterms loom, and sustained enthusiasm from Second Amendment voters remains essential to building the durable majority President Trump envisions. The next Attorney General will have the tools to repair DOJ’s relationship with gun owners. What DOJ needs now is the will to use them decisively.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 18:00

Inanity Of Identity Politics Exposed At Canadian NDP Convention

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The recent convention of the Canadian New Democratic Party (NDP) became a microcosm of the inanity of identity politics found in forums ranging from politics to higher education.

Participants were given familiar “equity cards” as literal card-carrying members of groups demanding preferred treatment. The problem is when one identity group demands preference over another. The result, as seen in Winnipeg, was calamity and quickly became comedy.

Many in education have long pushed equity cards and “identity markers” to get students to define themselves by their race, disability, gender, or other criteria. Even computer science teachers are told to tailor their lessons to identity markers.

Such markers are treated as essential to creating “Identity safe classrooms.”

There are even DEI games where children are encouraged to “match” their identity groups.

At the NDP convention, people were given equity cards to give preference to certain identities over groups such as males or whites. The problem is that the cards create an entitlement that can clash with others’ claims to speak first.

The cards were based on identity categories, including gender, race and ethnicity, LGBTQ+ status, and Indigenous status. You were supposed to be able to jump ahead of others because of your priority identity.

One video shows a person holding up their green gender equity card to claim the right to speak first as another woman waves her pink race equity card to speak.

What followed were objections to people not yielding to those with greater priority or right to speak with one noting that cards for people who identify as Black women “have no value outside of this space.”

Then there was the speaker who called out another delegate for the sin of misgendering the speaking who identified as “non-binary.”

The collapse of the equity house of cards is due to the inherent myth that identity politics produces equity. It is, in fact, a separate system of privilege and entitlement. It is used to marginalize other voices in the name of amplifying other voices.

The greatest impact is to balkanize a population or party rather than emphasize common identities.

The alternative is to enforce uniform treatment of any speakers based on such novel devices as a line to speak.

Under this cutting edge approach, people are guaranteed to speak in the order in which they line up to speak. It may be a radical experiment for the NDP, but it has been shown to have some success in other areas.

* * *

Buy here. Read more about it here. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 17:20

Houthis Confirm Coordination With Iran, Hezbollah In Several Attack Waves On Israel

Amid several waves of missile strikes out of Yemen onto Israel from Tuesday into Wednesday, the Iran-aligned Houthis have made it clear they are coordinating with both Tehran and Hezbollah.

Yemeni Brigadier General Yahya Saree said the Houthis have carried out several missile launch operations on "sensitive targets" in "southern occupied Palestine". The statement underscored this was conducted "in continuation of supporting and backing the fronts of Resistance" and as part of a "religious, moral, and humanitarian duty" toward allied forces in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine - specifically saying there was coordination with Iran.

Getty Images

The Houthis first announced last week they would be joining the war, but it has been the last 24 to 48 hours that Israel has really been subject of some of the biggest inbound rocket attacks in weeks.

This is because not only have Houthi forces stepped up attacks alongside Iran, but Hezbollah is increasing them too:

Four people were lightly injured as Hezbollah fired around 130 rockets at northern Israel on Wednesday and Thursday, the start of the Passover holiday, as the military struck dozens of sites in Lebanon belonging to the Iran-backed terror group.

The bombardment as Israelis celebrated the first two days of the Passover festival sent hundreds of thousands of people into shelters, as Iran continued to also launch missiles at the country, including the north.

The Houthis have very powerful, and longer-range rockets (compared to Hezbollah, apparently) - which were supplied (or assisted in terms of development) by Iran.

The Houthis are warning of more missile waves to come so long as Iran is attacked, saying the US-Israeli strikes "will only push free Yemen toward further escalation."

One conflict monitor has compiled some recent examples of the tight Iran-Hezbollah-Houthi coordination this week:

The coordination seems to have been primarily the timing of the launch, as Iranian missiles were launched at Tel Aviv and Bnai Brak at the same time, wounding 14, and Lebanon’s Hezbollah fired rockets at the northern city of Kiryat Shmona, announcing it as the start of the “Khaybar 2″ operation in defense of Lebanon.

The Houthis had previously targeted the resort city of Eilat with missile strikes, and there were missiles that hit that city, though Israeli media has continued to maintain that all the missiles and drones fired by the Houthis were successfully intercepted, so it’s not clear where the Eilat missile actually came from.

Footage shows an Iranian ballistic missile hitting central Israel.

No injuries. pic.twitter.com/u7BAH5CVLw

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) April 2, 2026

A big lingering uncertainty regarding Yemen's role in the conflict is whether the Houthis will start attacking Red Sea shipping once again. It has already threatened to, and such an escalation would add to deep uncertainty and rising prices in oil and energy markets.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 17:00

US Apartment Rents Post Largest Annual Decline Since 2017 In March: Report

Authored by Rob Sabo via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The national median apartment rent shook off the seasonal winter chill and inched up by 0.4 percent in March from February to $1,363, Apartment List reported.

A sign is posted in front of an apartment building with available rentals in San Francisco on June 9, 2023. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

However, the median rent was down by 1.7 percent from March 2025, the largest annual decline since Apartment List began compiling records in 2017. By comparison, year-over-year growth peaked at 18 percent during the winter of 2021.

Rents are generally soft or stagnant during the late fall and winter months as renters tend to forgo moving plans when it’s cold outside, but rates trend upward with warmer springtime and summer weather. The slight gain in March was the second consecutive monthly increase following a six-month span of declining rents, the Apartment List report said.

“This turn represents the market creeping out of the off-season, and we’ll likely see continued increases in the months ahead as moving activity ramps up, in line with typical seasonal patterns,” researchers at the organization wrote.

The national median rent peaked at $1,442 in August 2022 but has since trended downward, excluding seasonal jumps during the past three summers. Despite being 5.5 percent lower than its pandemic-induced peak, the national median monthly rent was still up 15 percent from $1,146 in January 2021.

Rents have softened behind a massive buildup of new apartment inventory. According to a February report by the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB), multifamily development starts peaked at 547,000 apartment units in 2022, though apartment starts had dipped by 35 percent from that level by 2024. Multifamily starts were expected to be stronger in 2025 at an estimated 413,000 new units, the NAHB reported.

However, new multifamily construction is expected to taper off in 2026 and drop even further over the following two years, the NAHB stated.

“The multifamily market has slowed due to tighter financing and elevated construction costs and is moving towards a more constrained development environment,” said Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis at the NAHB, in a statement.

Multifamily completions, meanwhile, peaked in 2024 with more than 608,000 new units hitting the market, a 38-year high, Nanayakkara-Skillington added.

That surge in inventory has led to rising vacancy rates. The vacancy rate among stabilized properties (those with at least 85 percent occupancy) is 7.3 percent, the highest rate since 2017, Apartment List noted.

The aggressive delivery of new apartment inventory in Sun Belt states has put downward pressure on rents, CoStar Group said in its latest market report. Year-over-year rent growth was down by 1.3 percent across the South in March, while the Mountain region dipped by 2.2 percent, CoStar Group reported.

Multifamily market conditions are expected to remain soft through the year, Apartment List added.

“Year-over-year rent growth hit a new low this month, while vacancies and time-on-market are both at peak levels. The wave of construction that has been driving these conditions is waning, but it now appears that weaker rental demand may keep rental conditions soft,” researchers wrote.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 15:20

US Apartment Rents Post Largest Annual Decline Since 2017 In March: Report

Authored by Rob Sabo via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The national median apartment rent shook off the seasonal winter chill and inched up by 0.4 percent in March from February to $1,363, Apartment List reported.

A sign is posted in front of an apartment building with available rentals in San Francisco on June 9, 2023. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

However, the median rent was down by 1.7 percent from March 2025, the largest annual decline since Apartment List began compiling records in 2017. By comparison, year-over-year growth peaked at 18 percent during the winter of 2021.

Rents are generally soft or stagnant during the late fall and winter months as renters tend to forgo moving plans when it’s cold outside, but rates trend upward with warmer springtime and summer weather. The slight gain in March was the second consecutive monthly increase following a six-month span of declining rents, the Apartment List report said.

“This turn represents the market creeping out of the off-season, and we’ll likely see continued increases in the months ahead as moving activity ramps up, in line with typical seasonal patterns,” researchers at the organization wrote.

The national median rent peaked at $1,442 in August 2022 but has since trended downward, excluding seasonal jumps during the past three summers. Despite being 5.5 percent lower than its pandemic-induced peak, the national median monthly rent was still up 15 percent from $1,146 in January 2021.

Rents have softened behind a massive buildup of new apartment inventory. According to a February report by the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB), multifamily development starts peaked at 547,000 apartment units in 2022, though apartment starts had dipped by 35 percent from that level by 2024. Multifamily starts were expected to be stronger in 2025 at an estimated 413,000 new units, the NAHB reported.

However, new multifamily construction is expected to taper off in 2026 and drop even further over the following two years, the NAHB stated.

“The multifamily market has slowed due to tighter financing and elevated construction costs and is moving towards a more constrained development environment,” said Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis at the NAHB, in a statement.

Multifamily completions, meanwhile, peaked in 2024 with more than 608,000 new units hitting the market, a 38-year high, Nanayakkara-Skillington added.

That surge in inventory has led to rising vacancy rates. The vacancy rate among stabilized properties (those with at least 85 percent occupancy) is 7.3 percent, the highest rate since 2017, Apartment List noted.

The aggressive delivery of new apartment inventory in Sun Belt states has put downward pressure on rents, CoStar Group said in its latest market report. Year-over-year rent growth was down by 1.3 percent across the South in March, while the Mountain region dipped by 2.2 percent, CoStar Group reported.

Multifamily market conditions are expected to remain soft through the year, Apartment List added.

“Year-over-year rent growth hit a new low this month, while vacancies and time-on-market are both at peak levels. The wave of construction that has been driving these conditions is waning, but it now appears that weaker rental demand may keep rental conditions soft,” researchers wrote.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 15:20

US Defense Stocks Take Epic Fury Beating, Leaving UBS Asking Why

Despite the launch of Operation Epic Fury against Iran in late February, U.S. defense stocks have moved lower rather than higher, prompting a UBS analyst to pen a note to clients this week attempting to answer why the makers of missiles and tanks failed to sustain a wartime rally.

Analyst Allyson Gordon asked the question: "Why Is US Defense Performance Lackluster?" 

Let's start with iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF, or ITA, a basket of major U.S. defense firms. ITA caught an early bid in the first phase of Operation Epic Fury, but the rally failed to hold shortly after that. By late March, the fund was down nearly 16%. The fund has since rebounded in recent sessions, trading around $223 on Thursday morning, but the defense complex's inability to sustain a war-driven rally caught investors off guard.

Gordon provided her take on why defense stocks has underperformed during the first month of the conflict:

Defense is one of the more asked groups on "lack of outperformance" in the wake of the Middle East conflict – I think a lot is in part a function of a high starting point with a ton of money piling into Defense at the end of 2025/start of 2026 on geopolitical tension and budget optimism, along with these being non-AI/non-cyclical big cap stocks attached to a good theme (i.e. exposure diversification). 

Now, there are also questions on midterms and supplemental. I still sense investors holding on but poor performance is forcing some cautious sentiment creep. RTX is the one investors are fighting the hardest on the recent lag.

She added:

Trading Color: Clear de-risking. Initially saw a rush of demand to start the year, but now the desk is much better for sale especially from the Long Only community. Most skewed in RTX, Lockheed Martin, Lam Research and Parsons.

In a separate note, Melius analyst Scott Mikus saw an opportunity in the sliding shares of RTX, formerly Raytheon Technologies Corporation. He upgraded the stock to "Buy" from "Hold" on the basis of "Epic Fury tailwinds."

Mikus said, "Given the need to replace missiles, missile interceptors, damaged radars, aircraft, and other equipment used in Operation Epic Fury, we are raising our estimates and price targets for the large defense primes."

"We see margin tailwinds for defense contractors as they move past stale-priced contracts and receive awards for mature production programs that are margin accretive," added Mikus.

The lingering question is how defense stocks will hold up as the Trump administration looks for an off-ramp to wind down the Iran operation, especially with U.S. gasoline prices now averaging above the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon level.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 15:00

OpenAI Snaps Up TBPN, Slashes ChatGPT Pricing As Secondary Market Interest Fades

Update (1400ET): In a surprise move, OpenAI has acquired TBPN (Technology Business Programming Network), the influential daily technology talk show and media platform hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays. TBPN has become one of Silicon Valley’s most-watched programs for real-time tech news, M&A rumors, high-profile executive interviews, and AI developments - often described as “SportsCenter for the tech industry.” The deal gives OpenAI a powerful owned-media channel to directly reach and engage the tech community while accelerating global conversations around AI. The show will continue unchanged: live weekdays from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. PT on YouTube and X, with Coogan and Hays retaining full creative control and editorial independence.

TBPN has been acquired by OpenAI

The world is changing quickly but TBPN will stay the same. Live every weekday just with a lot more resources.

Thank you to everyone that has been a part of this journey big or small. We are 17 months in and unironically just getting started. pic.twitter.com/TLvPxxMGVe

— Jordi Hays (@jordihays) April 2, 2026

Coogan, who has a long personal history with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman (including funding from Altman for his earlier startups), called the acquisition a “full circle moment.” Both hosts emphasized that TBPN “will stay the same” but will now benefit from significantly more resources to scale.

TBPN has been acquired by OpenAI!

The show is staying the same and we’ll continue to go live at 11am pacific every weekday.

This is a full circle moment for me as I’ve worked with @sama for well over a decade. He funded my first company in 2013. Then helped us fix a serious…

— John Coogan (@johncoogan) April 2, 2026

At the same time, OpenAI is accelerating its consumer growth push by expanding access to its lower-priced ChatGPT Go subscription tier. Priced at roughly $8 per month in the US (a ~60% discount to the $20 ChatGPT Plus plan), Go delivers expanded access to GPT-5.3, higher message limits, more file uploads, image generation, and longer memory. The tier - first introduced in select markets last year and rolled out globally earlier in 2026 — is now being made available in dozens of additional countries as OpenAI seeks to drive mass adoption and daily usage ahead of intensifying competition.

These announcements appear designed to bolster OpenAI’s growth narrative and consumer momentum at a moment when secondary-market demand for its shares has cooled sharply (as detailed in our reporting below). 

* * *

Interest in OpenAI’s stock on secondary markets has cooled sharply, with some large investors now struggling to find buyers according to Bloomberg.

At the same time, capital is rapidly shifting toward its main rival, Anthropic, where demand is surging.

In recent weeks, holders of OpenAI shares—including hedge funds and venture firms—have tried to offload roughly $600 million in stock, but unlike before, buyers haven’t stepped in. Platforms that once saw quick turnover now report little to no interest. Meanwhile, investors are actively setting aside billions to gain exposure to Anthropic instead.

Much of this shift comes down to valuation and perceived upside. OpenAI’s valuation has climbed to around $852 billion, leaving some investors unsure how much room remains for near-term gains. Anthropic, valued significantly lower, is increasingly viewed as having more growth potential, making it a more attractive bet right now.

The Bloomberg report notes that major banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are adjusting—offering OpenAI shares with reduced fees to spark interest, while continuing to charge typical performance fees for Anthropic investments.

There are also strategic concerns. OpenAI is spending heavily on infrastructure and has been slower to expand into high-margin enterprise markets. Anthropic, by contrast, has gained stronger traction with those clients, reinforcing expectations of faster growth.

That said, Anthropic isn’t without issues, including legal disputes and recent security missteps. Still, investor appetite remains extremely strong, with secondary demand pushing its implied valuation far higher, while OpenAI shares are increasingly trading at a discount.

*OPENAI DEMAND SINKS ON SECONDARY MARKET AS ANTHROPIC RUNS HOT

OpenAI shares are being sold in the secondary markets per Bloomberg with no buyers, while Anthropic shares are seeing record demand.

Ken Smythe, the founder of Next Round Capital, noted that there was a huge drop in… pic.twitter.com/MqygdTbzkn

— Negligible Capital (@negligible_cap) April 1, 2026

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 14:20

Three LNG Tankers Are First To Cross Strait Of Hormuz Since War Started

While a growing number of ships have been traversing the Strait of Hormuz, with Lloyd's List reporting a total of 142 vessels have transited since the start of March, but 67% of that traffic has a direct affiliation with Iran... and the figure rises to 90% when looking at traffic in recent days, as some ships have had to pay fees in yuan or cryptocurrencies before being escorted through the strait...

IRAN’S TOLL SYSTEM IS NOW LIVE IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

In the last 24 hours, around 10 ships have made it through.

Here’s how the system works:

The IRGC is running an informal checkpoint inside the Strait.

1. Ships submit cargo and vessel details through intermediaries

2.… https://t.co/Q21S0gN0Zm pic.twitter.com/PrSDQpKo3R

— Milk Road Macro (@MilkRoadMacro) April 2, 2026

... one vessel class that has so far failed to make the key crossing are LNG-carrying VLCCs, which are critical to ease the Asian nat gas supply crunch because,  unlike oil, there are no Hormuz alternatives or bypass pipelines to bring LNG/nat gas to gas-starved Asian customers where demand destruction is now rampant. 

But that is about to change: according to Bloomberg, a liquefied natural gas tanker has entered the Strait of Hormuz, and if it successfully navigates the waterway would become the first such vessel to pass through the strait since the start of the war.

The Sohar LNG tanker, which appears not to be loaded with cargo, is moving eastward after changing its destination to the Qalhat LNG export terminal in Oman, according to ship-tracking data. The vessel, which is signaling that it’s an Omani ship, had been circling around the Persian Gulf over the past month, the data show.

LNG ships have avoided the strait since the conflict broke out on Feb. 28, disrupting about a fifth of the world’s supply of the fuel.

According to Bloomberg, which first reported about the crossing, the ship’s manager, recorded as Oman Ship Management on the Equasis database, didn’t immediately respond to calls or an email seeking comment. Its owner, Energy Spring LNG Carrier SA, shares the same contact details as its manager.

More importantly, the Sohar appears to be traversing the southern side of the strait which is unusual because ships have typically taken a northerly route at Tehran’s behest. In other words, it appears that the Omanese ship is making a run for it. 

While the Sohar vessel appears to be empty, the market is closely watching for LNG flows to resume and ease pressure on global prices, as the collapse in supply from the Persian Gulf  - with Qatar's huge Ras Laffan LNG facility damaged and shut-in indefinitely - compounded by outages at Australian facilities due to a cyclone last month, has sent consumers worldwide seeking alternative sources of energy. 

More importantly, the empty LNG tanker is not alone. According to data from Lloyd's List and Hormuz Letter, two other VLCCs, and these are laden with some 4 million barrels of Saudi and Emirati cargo unlike the empty Sohar, are sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, tracking close to the Omani coastline.

All three vessels are indicating they are heading to ports in Oman.

Why does this matter? Well, earlier today, Iran announced the "Oman protocol" which also includes tolls. And now ships are moving, although it wasn't clear if the ships had paid the toll demanded by Iran. 

As The Hormuz Letter notes, "The blockade isn't ending, but is being restructured. Iran is deciding who passes, under what terms, and at what price. This is what controlled access looks like."

Earlier today,  Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister of legal and international affairs, said the tanker traffic through the key oil-shipping route must be supervised and coordinated: “Of course, these requirements will not mean restrictions, but rather to facilitate and ensure safe passage and provide better services to ships that pass through this route.”

What he really meant is that going forward - all else equal - every ship will have to pay a toll in the millions, either in yuan or crypto. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 14:00

Gulf States Considering Network Of New Pipelines To Bypass Strait Of Hormuz

One month ago, at the start of the war, we said it was surprising that UAE's oil export terminal of Fujairah was not a bigger terminal as it bypasses the Straits completely, and predicted a "major infrastructure push here after the war."

Surprising Fujairah is not a bigger oil terminal: it bypasses the straits completely.

Expect major infrastructure push here after the war. https://t.co/Do1gK7KBDQ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 3, 2026

Couple that with the latest news that the Saudi East-West pipeline is now running at capacity of roughly 7mmb/d (including non-oil products), and one can see the urgency gripping the Gulf in finding alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz which has emerged as Iran's biggest source of leverage in the war.

And that's just the start.

Confirming our observation from a month ago, the FT writes today that the threat of open-ended Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz is pushing Gulf countries to revisit costly plans for pipelines to bypass the choke point so they can continue to export oil and gas.

According to officials and industry executives, new pipelines may be the only way to reduce Gulf countries’ enduring vulnerability to disruption in the strait, even though such projects would be expensive, politically complex and take years to complete.

We have already discussed the 1200km East-West pipeline: the war has underscored the strategic value of this Hormuz bypass. Built in the 1980s after fears that the Iran-Iraq “tanker war” would close the strait, it is now a key lifeline, delivering 7mn barrels of oil a day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing Hormuz entirely. 

“In hindsight the East-West pipeline looks like a genius masterstroke,” said one senior Gulf energy executive. 

Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi’s state-run oil giant Aramco, told analysts last month that the pipeline is the “main route that we are capitalizing on right now”. 

Now, the kingdom is considering how it can export more of its 10.2mn barrels of daily production by pipeline, rather than through Iranian-controlled waters. This includes examining whether it should expand the capacity of the East-West pipeline further or build new routes. According to the FT. previous plans for pipelines across the region have repeatedly stalled, undone by high costs and complexity. But Maisoon Kafafy, a senior adviser to the Atlantic Council’s Middle East programs, said the mood in the Gulf has now changed. 

“I’m sensing a shift from hypotheticals into operational reality,” she said. “Everyone is looking at the same map and they are drawing the same conclusions.”

To eliminate the threat of centralized "points of failure", rather than individual projects, the most resilient option “is not a single alternative pipeline but rather a network, a web of corridors”, said Kafafy, although she added that it would also be the hardest to achieve.

In the longer term, any new pipelines are likely to form part of trade routes through which a wider range of goods beyond oil and gas can flow. One option is the revival of US-led plans for an ambitious corridor that would run from India through the Gulf and then to Europe, called IMEC, one Gulf official said, although part of this project originally included a politically tricky pipeline that ran to the Israeli port of Haifa. 

Yossi Abu, the chief executive of Israeli company NewMed Energy, said he was confident that pipelines to the Mediterranean Sea would be built, whether they terminated at Israeli or Egyptian ports.

“People need to control their own destinies, with their friends,” he said. “You need oil pipelines, railway connectivity, throughout the region, onshore, without giving others bottlenecks to choke us.” 

A push for more bypasses means bumper revenues for local contruction companies. Christopher Bush, the CEO of Cat Group, the private Lebanese company that was one of the main builders of Saudi’s East-West pipeline, said there was plenty of interest in new projects even before the war began. “We have had inquiries about various different pipelines,” he said. “I have multiple different presentations on my desk.” 

But the obstacles remain immense, he added. The cost of replicating the East-West pipeline today, which involved blasting through the hard basalt of the Hijaz mountain on Saudi’s Red Sea coast, would be at least $5bn, Bush estimated. Proposals for more complicated multi-country routes from Iraq through Jordan, Syria or Turkey would cost $15bn to $20bn. “It has been looked at. There are even front-end engineering studies for [such routes from] Iraq. There is an opportunity that has been discussed,” he said.

But security risks include “a lot” of unexploded bombs in Iraq and the continuing presence of Isis or other militants. Pipelines running south to ports in Oman would also face the difficulty of passing through both desert and hard-rock mountains, Bush warned. Ports in Oman are not immune from Iranian security threats. Drone attacks on the key port of Salalah in recent days forced it to shut temporarily.

Political challenges also include who will operate the pipeline and control the flow. A network of pipelines would require Gulf countries “to abandon their individualist policies and combine. It was always deemed cheaper and safer to bring a ship, load a ship and sail a ship,” Bush added.

In the near term, the most viable options may be to expand the East-West pipeline and also Abu Dhabi’s existing route to Fujairah, just as we suggested weeks ago. This would increase capacity without the complications of new cross-border infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia could also develop additional export terminals on its Red Sea coast, including at the deepwater port being built for the Neom project. “I am sure they are looking at it as a possibility,” said Bush. “You have a lot of smart minds looking at all of this now. It is a big problem.” 

One senior energy executive said Abu Dhabi had “always had a plan B for a second pipeline to Fujairah”. But they added that no decisions are likely to be made until the long-term status of the Strait of Hormuz becomes clear.

Kafafy agreed that Gulf states will take a while to assess the situation with the waterway, but said they now recognise that the scale of the current energy crisis demands a new way of thinking. “The conversations have moved further along the chain,” she said. “I do not expect [the status quo] to return to where it was pre-conflict.”

* * *

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 13:40

Kremlin Asks US For Ceasefire At Bushehr Nuclear Plant To Get Remaining Russian Staff Out

Russia is seeking approval from the US and Israel for a ceasefire for the Bushehr nuclear ⁠power plant in Iran, RIA news agency reported Thursday. Airstrikes across the country have reportedly been on the uptick in the past some 48 hours.

"The travel routes will be communicated ‌to the relevant authorities in Israel and the United States, and we will use all channels to request strict adherence to the ceasefire ⁠during the convoy’s movement," the ⁠head of Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom, Alexei Likhachev, stated.

Well over 500 Russian personnel were at the site prior to the US launching Operation Epic Fury, and the Bushehr complex has been hit at least three times by airstrikes, putting the complex and area at severe risk.

via Anadolu Agency

Likhachev said that a "final ⁠wave of evacuation" of some 200 people is tentatively scheduled for next week. There's been a lot of Russian technicians and personnel there given the plant was undergoing expansion, and it's Russia which first constructed Busherh - and so has technical expertise.

The Kremlin has accused Washington and Israel of putting the whole region in danger, and further of harming the cause of nuclear non-proliferation globally.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova days ago issued statement saying, "The drama of the situation is aggravated by the fact that countries attacking peaceful nuclear facilities in Iran are effectively undermining  the NPT, the IAEA's verification mechanisms, nuclear and physical security conventions, as well as the agency's relevant regulations," according to the ministry's website.

"Carefully crafted and internationally agreed solutions are not taken seriously by these states and can be discarded at any moment in favor of their selfish interests and geopolitical considerations," the spokeswoman added.

Zakharova further communicated that atrocities in Iran must cease, and nuclear sites must be safeguarded, referencing the latest attacks in the past days on the complex in Khondab, the factory in Ardakan, and the strikes near the Bushehr nuclear power plant.

"The aggressors continue to raise the stakes in their war in the Middle East, ignoring all associated risks, including the danger of widespread radioactive contamination," Zakharova had said last week.

Moscow Urges U.S., Israel to Ensure Safety#Russia’s Rosatom chief Alexei Likhachev says Moscow will ask the United States and #Israel to observe a ceasefire during evacuation of staff from #Iran’s Bushehr plant, a final wave involving about 200 personnel is planned next week,… pic.twitter.com/MaaYa6RNIW

— Daily Euro Times (@dailyeurotimes) April 2, 2026

She further chastised UN and international bodies for not stepping up to loudly condemn the US-Israeli operation. The IAEA has meanwhile urged de-escalation, also as Trump is said to be mulling a possible high risk special forces operation to seize Iran's enriched uranium.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 13:10

Coinbase Exec Says Senate CLARITY Act Deal On Stablecoin Yield "Very Close"

Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com,

Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal said the US Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is “moving toward” a markup hearing in the US Senate Banking Committee and could eventually move to a floor vote if senators resolve the stablecoin yield dispute and schedule a markup.

Speaking in a Wednesday interview on Fox Business, Grewal said lawmakers are nearing agreement on core elements of the crypto market structure bill, even as debate continues over stablecoin yield.

“I think we’re very close to a deal,” he said.

The remarks point to possible movement on one of the last major sticking points in Senate talks over crypto market structure legislation: whether stablecoin issuers or platforms should be allowed to offer yield or similar rewards. The dispute has helped delay a Senate Banking Committee markup, leaving the broader effort to set federal rules for digital asset oversight still unresolved.

US banks have pushed for restrictions, arguing that such incentives could draw deposits away from traditional institutions and disrupt the banking system. Grewal pushed back on that claim, saying there is no evidence to support fears of deposit flight.

The US House of Representatives passed the CLARITY Act on July 17, 2025. In January, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott delayed a planned markup, which has yet to be rescheduled.

Trump blames banks for stalling crypto bill

Last month, US President Donald Trump accused banks of undermining efforts to pass crypto market structure legislation, saying they are blocking progress over disagreements on stablecoin yield payments. “The Banks should not be trying to undercut The Genius Act, or hold The Clarity Act hostage,” he wrote.

It was later reported that Trump met privately with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong just hours before issuing the statement.

Coinbase shares are down 23% YTD. Source: Yahoo! Finance

In January, Armstrong said Coinbase could not back the market structure bill “as written,” pointing to draft amendments that would eliminate stablecoin rewards and let banks restrict competition.

CLARITY delay could expose crypto to crackdowns

Last week, Coin Center executive director Peter Van Valkenburgh warned that failure to pass the CLARITY Act could leave the crypto industry vulnerable to a future US administration taking a tougher stance. He argued that rejecting developer protections in favor of short-term business interests risks creating a system shaped by political shifts rather than clear law.

“The point of passing CLARITY is not to trust this administration. It is to bind the next one,” he said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 12:55

Private Credit Bank Run Begins: Blue Owl Gates After Shocking 41% Of OTIC Investors Ask For Their Money

A week ago, in an attempt to calm the market, Goldman's economists published a lengthy, if at times disjointed, report discussing why a crisis in private credit would not lead to another financial crisis.

We are about to find out if they were right. 

Recall that in mid-March, while attention was understandably focused on the Iran war, we explained why Blue Owl's February decision to commence liquidations of loans in its three core private credit funds to fund current and future redemptions, was the industry's "Margin Call" moment, to wit: 

First it was Blue Owl, the largest pure play Private Credit fund with over $300 billion in AUM. The company, the first to face massive redemption demands, refused to gate investors and instead announced it would sell $1.4 billion in private loans (it was unclear which loans were sold, but Goldman suggested that these are likely the best ones so as to find willing buyers, leaving the company with the toxic sludge) from its three BDCs (OBDCII, OBDC and OTIC) at 99.7 cents (a number which was meant to inspire confidence yet was laughable, especially since once of the "buyers" was a related-party insurance company, Kuvare, also owned by Blue Owl), to satisfy redemption requests. 

In our February 19 article describing the Blue Owl transaction, we said that "while it is unclear how deep the secondary market for private credit assets is, to the extent demand is relatively scarce, a transaction of this size could dry up market liquidity. If that assumption is true, other BDCs looking to exit portfolio investments could be jeopardized. Recall the immortal line from Margin Call: "Be First, Be Smarter, or Cheat."

We then said that "this could very well be Blue Owl's "Be First" moment... "Sell it all, today" especially if it were to later emerge that the secondary market is only deep for higher quality private credit assets, like the ones in the portfolio OWL is selling. In a concurrent report, Barclays warned that "if this transaction dries up secondary liquidity for private credit assets (or proves that the bid is only there for higher quality assets), it could be negative for other BDCs exploring portfolio sales."

In retrospect, this is precisely when the "Margin Call moment" of the private credit sector happened, because what happened next would make the market's head spin.

And unfortunately for Blue Owl, while the firm's catastrophic practices and financial engineering was indeed the snowflake that started the avalanche in the broader private credit sector, it has now boomeranged on the company itself and may have well led to its demise when two months after desperately seeking to avoid gating redemptions, the private credit giant announced it will in fact limit redemptions from two of its private credit funds after facing a historic surge in withdrawal requests that is unprecedented among major firms in the $1.8 trillion market.

Redemption requests in Blue Owl's marquee $36 billion Credit Income Corp. fund, one of the industry’s largest, soared to 21.9% in the three months ended March 31, according to an investor letter first reported by Bloomberg, up from "only" 5.2% in the prior period. But it was the smaller Blue Owl Technology Income Corp, which was at the center of the February turmoil, that was the real shock after its shareholders asked for a shocking 40.7% back, compared with 15.4% three months earlier, according to a separate letter. 

Both funds had previously met the requests in excess of its 5% tender offer. This time, though, Blue Owl - whose actions sparked the crisis that is now sweeping across pricvate credit - said it would join industry peers in capping redemptions at that level, “in accordance with the fund structure, reflecting our commitment to balancing the interests of both tendering and remaining shareholders.”

For the bigger fund, OCIC, that amounts to $988 million of redemptions honored and about $3.2 billion remaining in the fund, while for OTIC it means redeeming $179 million and keeping roughly $1 billion of investors’ cash, according to Bloomberg.

Craig Packer, Blue Owl’s co-president, said in an investor update that he believed the uptick in redemptions reflected a “period of heightened negative sentiment toward the asset class that has intensified as peers have reported tender results”.

And why would their tender results be intensified one wonders? Would it have something to do with that pinnacle of financial engineering where Blue Owl dumped many of its best loans to a related entity? Maybe Craig thinks that his investors are all idiots, but as he just found out, they may be far smarter than him.

“While we believe market perception has driven elevated tender activity, underlying credit fundamentals across our portfolio have remained resilient,” he added. “We continue to observe a meaningful disconnect between the public dialogue on private credit and the underlying trends in our portfolio.”

In the letters, OCIC said 90% of its shareholders chose not to tender, reflecting concentrated withdrawal demands, which means it was driven by institutions not retail investors who have been frequently blamed for all the ills plaguing private credit.. OTIC said its redemption pressure “was amplified by the fund’s more concentrated shareholder base, particularly within certain wealth channels and regions, and its specialized investment mandate.”

Both Blue Owl funds, which have returned more than 9% annualized since inception (not all too different from how Bernie Madoff generated double digits returns until one day his ponzi scheme collapsed), said they’re in a “strong position” to meet the 5% redemption requests and future tenders. OCIC and OTIC had $11.3 billion and $1.3 billion, respectively, across cash, available borrowing and liquid Level 2 assets as of the end of February, according to the letters.

While Blue Owl joins industry peers including Apollo Global, Ares Management and BlackRock in sticking to their redemption threshold on non-traded business development companies, the staggering magnitude of the requests underscores how Blue Owl has found itself squarely in the middle of worries about private credit.

The limitation on outflows highlights the risks to individual investors who had flocked to so-called non-traded private credit funds over the past three years in periods of stress. Those wealthy individuals had been promised access to higher-yielding investments in exchange for limited liquidity. Now they are regretting it. 

Private credit asset managers have diverged in how they have dealt with redemption requests, with some going to great lengths to cash out investors, while others have stuck to their limit. Still, no major manager has disclosed facing the percentage that Blue Owl’s BDCs were asked to pay back.

And with Blue Owl's private credit business now effectively in wind down mode, and mothballing the entire private credit industry, one wonders where so many crappy small and medium (mostly tech) companies will get the funding to exist. But before that, one wonders more just how wrong Goldman's analysis is that a private credit crisis won't impact the broader economy. We'll find out very soon. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 12:35