My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

• Trump’s More Than 3,700 Trades Astonish Wall Street Insiders: President Donald Trump’s latest financial disclosures show that he or his investment advisers made more than 3,700 trades in the first quarter, a flurry totaling tens of millions of dollars and involving major companies that have dealings with his administration. The President’s personal trading record, surfaced in disclosures, is itself a market-integrity story. Even by political-class standards, the activity level is remarkable. (Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance)

• Who wins and who loses from fewer corporate earnings reports:. Investors “have come to expect quarterly reporting and will exert pressure on companies to continue to provide quarterly reporting,” Erik Gerding, former director of corporate finance at the SEC. (Axios) see also Good Quarterly Earnings Behavior: Yours truly on what to actually do — and not do — during earnings season. Process beats prediction, every quarter. (The Big Picture)

• Secret Memos, Frantic Texts and Juicy Confessions From the OpenAI-Musk Trial: We sifted through evidence and testimony to figure out how billionaires Elon Musk, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman ended up in a courtroom. (Wall Street Journal)

• 50 Years of Stock Market Returns: Ben Carlson’s annual long-view table. Useful as a sanity check the next time someone tells you ‘this time it’s different.’ (A Wealth of Common Sense)

• The Rich Really Do Pay Lower Taxes Than You: The Saez/Zucman interactive still hits. Refreshed in the head whenever the ‘lazy rich aren’t taxed enough’ debate fires up again. (New York Times)

• Apple Is Making Hit Products and High Profits From Imperfect Chips: The company’s popular, $599 Neo laptop is just one of dozens of Apple devices that use lower-performing processors. (Wall Street Journal)

• The man they call Toad, and his lifetime collection of bikes that no-one wanted: A specialist’s lifetime collection, lovingly profiled. Almost everything about why hobbies matter is in this piece. The man they call Toad, and his lifetime collection of bikes that no-one wanted.  (The Bike Shed Times)

• In northern Ukraine, it was boy vs. Russian drone. The boy won. A soldier taught a 12-year-old how to disable the fiber-optic drones that Russia has been using to hunt Ukrainian civilians in a campaign the U.N. has labeled a war crime. The ‘human safari’ phenomenon — Russian FPV drones hunting civilians on Ukrainian roads — has produced terrible footage and the occasional small victory. (Washington Post) see also Rumors of Instability in Moscow: Drone attacks, internet blackouts, and a sudden downturn in the economy have marked one of the worst stretches for Vladimir Putin since the start of the war in Ukraine. Kremlinology for the post-Wagner era. Reading the signals takes practice; this piece offers a useful framework. (New Yorker)

• YouTube taught a Japanese teen how to kick field goals. Now he’s in the NFL. Kansei Matsuzawa, 27, became the first Japanese-born player ever signed by an NFL team when he agreed to a deal as an undrafted free agent with the Raiders. A lovely ‘distance learning, applied’ story. Specialist positions are the most disrupt-able corner of pro sports. (NBC News)

• Stephen Colbert’s ‘Late Show’ comes to an ironic end: On the strange off-ramp for the late-night format. The economics killed the show; the politics gave the eulogy a louder coda. (Washington Post)

Video of the day: 7 Heritage Brands DESTROYED By Private Equity (And 5 That Survived)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this weekend with Sheila Bair, former Chairperson of FDIC from 2006-11. She helped steer the agency through worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Her new book is aimed at young adults and teenagers, titled “How Not to Lose a Million Dollars”

 

In Credit Markets, Things Are Getting Better, Not Worse

Source: Apollo

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Canada Rethinks Selling Its Crown Jewel Pipeline

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

• The Canadian federal government may reconsider a plan to privatize the Trans Mountain oil pipeline.

• Since the expanded TMX pipeline launched in 2024, exports to Asia—especially China—have surged, with up to 70% of shipments from British Columbia heading to Asian buyers by late 2025.

• Officials now see TMX as a highly profitable “strategically important asset,” with potential for further expansion

The Canadian federal government may reconsider a plan to privatize the Trans Mountain oil pipeline and keep it state-owned amid a surge in appetite for Canadian crude to replace lost Middle Eastern barrels.

“The prior narrative had been that this should be returning to private hands,” the head of the government entity that owns Trans Mountain said at an event this week, as quoted by the Financial Post.

“That was in a different market and that was in a different time,” Elizabeth Wademan also said.

Indeed, this is a very different market from what it was when the government in Ottawa had to step in and buy Trans Mountain from Kinder Morgan, which quit the project under relentless pressure from climate activists who used environmental regulations to strangle the expansion project. The price tag for the nationalization deal, which took place in 2018, was about $3.3 billion, and the Trudeau government quickly signaled it would start looking for buyers as soon as possible.

By 2024, the cost of the pipeline expansion project had swelled to about $23 billion, but the project, somewhat surprisingly, was completed, and the expanded pipeline launched in May of that year, running at three times its original capacity or a total of 890,000 barrels daily.

The destination for these barrels was the vast Asian market, as a way to diversify away from the U.S., which has for decades been pretty much the only foreign market for Canadian crude—and an export conduit, with the oil transported from Canada to the U.S. Gulf Coast, and from there, to markets overseas. With the new TMX, Canadian crude producers got a new, more convenient channel to Asian energy buyers.

It did not take long for the effect to be felt: between the launch of the expanded pipe and spring 2025, the average flow rates for shipment to China reached 207,000 barrels daily. That compares with an average of 173,000 barrels daily pumped to the United States. Since spring, the shift has become even more marked. By October 2025, as much as 70% of Canadian crude exported from the British Columbia coast was going to China. Now, everyone else in Asia is also interested.

The Trans Mountain pipeline is a “strategically important asset”, Trans Mountain Corp.’s Wademan said this week, suggesting the project could be expanded further, with more “energy corridors” that would add value for Canadians, the Financial Post reported.

“Let’s look where we are, and look how important energy security is, and look how incredibly profitable this asset is; there’s a lot,” Wademan said.

“There’s a lot of merit to holding onto it and realizing that full value.”

Indeed, it would be profitable for the federal government to hold on to the infrastructure as the price of Canadian crude inches closer to $90 per barrel—a level hardly seen as possible just five years ago, and even more recently. TMX has turned into a game-changer for the Canadian oil industry and it will be in the center of the “golden opportunity” that Canada has to become a bigger global player in both oil and gas.

Canada has a “golden opportunity” to become a major global oil player as the war in the Middle East limits sources of crude and natural gas, the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said earlier this month, adding that “The cost of missing this train will be incredible.” It seems the Canadian government is acutely aware of that risk and plans to avoid it and make the best of the country’s resources in a fascinating departure from the previous government’s focus on emission reduction and alternative energy.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 06:30

Behind Turkey's Gold Sales: The Biggest Ever Plunge In Foreign Reserves

Shortly after the Iran war started, with gold unexpectedly tumbling, we showed that the reason behind gold's paradoxical move - after all, the precious metal has traditionally been a store of value in times of geopolitical stress - was the furious liquidation of gold by emerging markets, in this case Turkey, scrambling to obtain reserve dry powder so Ankara could cover soaring costs of energy imports.

And indeed, the latest central bank data showed that Turkey’s foreign reserves had their biggest monthly decline on record in March, as the Iran war triggered global selloffs in emerging market assets and strained the lira.

According to balance-of-payments data released on Wednesday, Turkey's official reserves cratered by $43.4 billion in March. Part of the decline reflected state intervention to offset portfolio outflows. The current-account deficit, meanwhile, widened to $9.7 billion in March from $7.3 billion in February as a result of soaring commodity prices.

A major energy importer, Turkey has been hit hard by higher oil and gas prices caused by the effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting disruptions to world supplies of crude and refined products. Meanwhile, global banks have started changing their formerly favorable outlook on the lira, citing the exploding current-account deficit. Should inflation pressures persist, Turkey will have no choice but to pursue another accelerated devaluation of the Turkish lira. 

“As international institutions continue to raise their average oil price forecasts for 2026, disruptions in supply chains and ongoing regional tensions — and their potential negative impact on transportation and tourism revenues — keep upward risks alive in year-end projections” for Turkey, said Istanbul-based economist Haluk Burumcekci.

Turkish central bank Governor Fatih Karahan said last week that the ratio between the current-account deficit and gross domestic product would be “below historical averages” this year while acknowledging the upside risks.

Since President Erdogan’s reelection in 2023, a new economic team has sought to stabilize Turkey’s external finances by cooling demand through conventional tools such as higher interest rates and restrictions on credit growth.

The central bank has kept its benchmark rate at 37% for two straight meetings but has effectively lended from a costlier rate of 40% since the outbreak of the Iran war — a technical measure to tighten liquidity without instituting a formal rate hike.

Inflationary pressures persist, however, with annual price growth picking up to 32.4% in April, a number that is set to rise higher in the coming months. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 05:45

Trump Tells Iran 'Clock Is Ticking, Move Fast' After New Peace Proposal As Analysts Predict Likely Return To War

Update(1410ET): President Trump has warned Iran on Sunday that the "clock is ticking" as Pakistani-mediated talks have not only stalled, but show no signs at all of restarting anytime soon. "They better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them," he wrote on Truth Social. "TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!"

He spoke the same day with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who along with Lindsey Graham has been calling for resumption of robust anti-Tehran action to ensure Iran can never go nuclear. Trump's words have been somewhat of a familiar refrain going back several weeks. 

As we detailed below, Iran says it received a counter proposal of '5 conditions' for peace from the White House. In many ways they are directly opposite the 5 conditions Iran sent to the US last week, which Trump had rejected as "garbage".

But as yet there's been no indicator that the US side has attached a timeline to its latest demands. Trump is perhaps pushing this new "clock is ticking" as a timeline threat of sorts. But again, there was no specific date included in the fresh warning.

Last week Bloomberg Intelligence circulated a report titled, Iran Rejects Trump's Offer - Return to War Likely. It concluded:

The diplomatic dance continues: the US and Iran exchanged offers yet again. But they remain far apart, shooting maximalist demands at each other. A comprehensive peace deal is unlikely to materialize. We think the US and Iran will likely return to strikes. But we expect an intense exchange of fire to be temporary and reduce to lower-levels of fighting – what we call the new normal in this protracted conflict. 

More from the Bloomberg Intelligence analysis: 

Short but Intense... and Costly

Trump doesn’t want long war. His popularity is taking a hit as its economic impact is being felt.

We think Trump will likely revert to a short air and missile strike campaign on Iranian infrastructure, military positions, and energy assets while simultaneously continuing the blockade. Tehran will likely respond with strikes of its own, both on US military assets and America’s regional partners. But we expect this to be a short bombardment, rather than the sustained, high-intensity strike campaign that marked the beginning of the war.

The war has already imposed a heavy economic cost. Oil markets flipped from an expected record surplus to historic supply disruption. Major central banks, facing fresh inflation risks, are turning more hawkish. Consumers now pay more for energy, while their borrowing costs also rise, and the future grows more uncertain.

The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the more it will drain the oil stockpiles cushioning governments, companies, and consumers today. Once inventories run thin, prices need to do the hard work: rising high enough to curb demand back in line with available supply.

Since that report was issued, nothing has changed, and both sides seem to have dug in their heels even more.

*  *  *

According to a Sunday report from Iran's semi-official Fars news agency, the United States has laid down a firm, take-it-or-leave-it ultimatum to Tehran. Both sides are still trying to patiently wait out the Hormuz crisis, hoping to inflict more economic pain on the other until they blink.

At the top of the list, the US is demanding a near-total dismantling of Iran's atomic ambitions, "allowing only one Iranian nuclear facility to remain operational." 

Anadolu Agency

The list includes direct rejections in response to Iran's own five conditions from a week ago, which President Trump said were "unacceptable" and "garbage".

For example the US is refusing to pay compensation for damage caused during strikes on Iranian territory - a 'maximalist' sticking point which Tehran had demanded previously.

Washington is also reportedly insists that 400 kilograms of enriched uranium be transferred from Iran to the US, while only one active nuclear facility would remain operational inside the Islamic Republic.

Iran for its part has recently vowed to never transfer its nuclear material out of the Islamic Republic, calling the issue a matter of national sovereignty and energy security which it alone has say over. This after even Russia offered to take it.

The newly reported five conditions by the US side further states that the US does not intend to release more than 25% of frozen Iranian assets. Tehran has demanded the dropping of all US sanctions as a key basis for lasting settlement.

Here are the five newly proposed Washington conditions, which some pundits have called 'wishful thinking':

1. No war compensation from US
2. Give up 400kg of Highly Enriched Uranium to US 
3. Iran can only have on nuclear facility to remain active
4. Not more than 25% of frozen assets to be unfreezed 
5. Halting war on all fronts depends on negotiations

So this leaves a huge distance between the Washington list and Tehran's list, as the seemingly unbridgeable gulf remains, also as Iran is digging in its heels.

As a reminder, the below is the Islamic Republic's list, which it hasn't backed down from. It has offered the following as the only basis on which to restart talks:

1. Ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon
2. Lifting all sanctions
3. Releasing frozen Iranian assets
4. Compensation for war damages and losses
5. Recognition of Iran’s sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz

US response to #Iran includes zero compensation, not even 25% of frozen assets released, keeping only one #nuclear facility active, handing over 400kg of highly enriched uranium to the US, and ending the war on all fronts dependent on the negotiations. https://t.co/riS7M4fEeF

— Abas Aslani (@AbasAslani) May 17, 2026

While a Pakistani-mediated ceasefire managed to take effect on April 8, subsequent talks in Islamabad completely collapsed, but then President Trump later extended the truce indefinitely, likely to buy time and to figure out "what's next" - while seeking a complete blockade of Iranian oil exports, and of all vessels entering or exiting Iranian ports.

With Washington demanding total disarmament and Iran demanding control over the world's most critical oil transit choke point, the stage is set for a likely coming renewal of direct clashes, given the zero sum demands of each side now on the table.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 05:10

So Where Does Wokeism Come From? (Spoiler Alert: The French, Of Course!)

Authored by Monica Showalter via AmericanThinker.org,

How did wokeism happen?

A French intellectual, who goes by Brivael Le Pogam on X, has written a tightly focused and brief explanation of it worthy of Eric Hoffer, putting his finger on the thinking of French philospher-historian Michel Foucault, French philosopher Jacques Derrida, and French philospher-literary critic Gilles Deleuze, the first of whom claimed there was  no such thing as truth, just power relationships, the second of whom claimed truth was malleable, and the third of whom made the really weird claim that seeds were greater than fully developed trees because becoming was more important than being, poor romantic devil.

Married to guilt-tripping academics of the U.S., he explains how wokery was the result.

His tweet is in French, but Grok translate kicks in on my site, so I will post the translation below the tweet.

Grok translate, (with censorship from me of one cuss word that means merde): (emphasis ours)

I want to offer my apologies, on behalf of the French, for giving birth to French Theory (which in turn gave birth to the worst of all ideological monstrosities: wokism).

We gave the world Descartes, Pascal, Tocqueville. And then, in the intellectual ruins of post-1968, we gave Foucault, Derrida, Deleuze. Three brilliant men who forged, in the elegance of our language, the ideological weapon that today paralyzes the West.

We must understand what they did.

Foucault taught that truth does not exist, that there are only power relations disguised as knowledge. That science, reason, justice, the medical institution, the school, the prison, sexuality—everything is merely a staging of domination.

Derrida taught that texts have no stable meaning, that every signifier slips away, that every reading is a betrayal, that the author is dead and the reader reigns supreme.

Deleuze taught that we should prefer the rhizome to the tree, the nomad to the sedentary, desire to the law, becoming to being, difference to identity.

Taken individually, these are debatable theses. Combined, exported, and popularized, they form a system. And that system is a poison.

For here’s what happened.

These texts, unreadable in France, crossed the Atlantic. The departments of Yale, Berkeley, and Columbia absorbed them in the 1980s. They found there a soil that did not exist among us: American Puritanism, its racial guilt, its obsession with identity. French Theory married this substratum, and the child of that union is called wokism.

Judith Butler reads Foucault and invents performative gender. Edward Said reads Foucault and invents academic postcolonialism. Kimberlé Crenshaw inherits the framework and invents intersectionality. At every step, the matrix is French: there is no truth, there is only power, so every hierarchy is suspect, every institution is oppressive, every norm is violence, every identity is constructed and thus negotiable, every majority is guilty.

That’s how three Parisian philosophers, who probably never imagined their practical consequences, provided the operating software to an entire generation of activists, university bureaucrats, HR managers, journalists, and legislators. That’s how we ended up with a civilization that no longer knows how to say whether a woman is a woman, whether its own history is worth defending, whether merit exists, whether truth can be distinguished from opinion.

It’s sh** for one simple reason, and it must be stated calmly.

A civilization stands on three pillars: the belief that there exists a truth accessible to reason, the belief that there exists a good distinct from evil, the belief that there exists a heritage to be transmitted.

French Theory set out to dynamite all three. Not out of malice. Out of intellectual play, fascination with suspicion, hatred of the bourgeoisie that had nurtured them. But the result is there. An entire generation learned to deconstruct and never learned to build. An entire generation knows how to suspect and no longer knows how to admire. An entire generation sees power everywhere and beauty nowhere.

I apologize because we French bear a particular responsibility. It’s our language, our universities, our publishers, our prestige that gave this nihilism its chic packaging. Without the legitimacy of the Sorbonne and Vincennes, these ideas would never have crossed the ocean. We exported doubt the way others export weapons.

What is being built now, in Silicon Valley, in AI labs, in startups, in workshops, in all the places where people still make things instead of deconstructing them—that is the response. A civilization is rebuilt by builders, not by commentators. By those who believe that truth exists and is worth devoting oneself to. By those who embrace a hierarchy of the beautiful, the true, the good, and are not ashamed to transmit it.

So, forgive us. And back to work.

His viral tweet has been retweeted by Elon Musk, Javier Milei, and 20,000 other people on X, multiplied many more times by Musk and others. 

Eric Hoffer used to write about these guys in the '50s and '60s, the earlier wave of them, French and German intellectuals, plus numerous academics in the states, often noting that they have never having done a day of work in their lives. He linked their relativist and nihilist radicalism to antisemitism, too. Hoffer knew who they were and he  had their number.

So does this guy.

His tweet advances to the recent wave of them, which created an unholy fusion with U.S. academics to produce wokesterism, the reason we see in our culture the inability to define what a woman is, the collective racism charge that never, ever can be ended, and more rubbish that a whole industry has been built around.

Eric Hoffer, who died in 1983, loved those who could express ideas concisely. Since I knew him personally as a high school and college student, I think he would have enjoyed X.

I hope we hear more from this French guy, because knowledge of this kind is power -- that is why this tweet went viral. It's why, when I first discovered Eric Hoffer's True Believer book as a 12-year-old kid, I hid the book under my bed, because to a kid like me, it felt like it contained all the secrets of the universe. Hoffer has never been out of print, because what he tells is the truth. Truth like this French tweet is the same kind of truth, and the gives me the same kind of feeling: Exposes the liars is the strongest way to stamp the wokeism out. It's a reminder that Western Civilization must win this war on ideas.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 05:00

Net Zero Fearmongering In Tatters After Climate Report 'Implausibility' Ruling

Authored by Chris Morrison via DailySceptic.org,

The fallout from the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ruling that computer model high emissions pathway RCP8.5 is “implausible” is only just beginning. Most mainstream media fearmongering stories over the last 15 years need to be moved into the junk file, as do the increasingly shrill sandwich-board pronouncements of King Charles and Sir David Attenborough.

But the rot goes much deeper than ill-informed public comment, although that alone has been enormously influential in promoting the Net Zero fantasy. Activist-ridden science bodies such as the UK Met Office have brazenly used RCP8.5 to flam up weather predictions which in turn has led to onerous requirements being placed on British industry and finance. Politicians have been convinced by patently ridiculous claims and Net Zero rules and regulations have cascaded through the economy and society.

All the politicised predictions need to be junked and all the resulting regulations reconsidered with a view to abolition. They are all based on assumptions that many at the time said were ridiculous and have now been officially marked as not wanted on voyage. Those inclined to be uncharitable might suggest it was all a hoax from start to finish.

In 2022, the Met Office published its latest ‘UK Climate Projections Report‘ (UKCP18) and claimed it provided users “with the most recent scientific evidence on projected climate change with which to plan”. Many words come to mind to describe the output of computer models, none of which include ‘evidence’. In fact, the Met Office made a feature of its deliberate use of RCP8.5, highlighting its findings in bold type and describing them as “plausible”. These plausible projections, a more accurate description might be laughable, suggested summers and winters in the UK by 2070 could be up to 5.1°C and 3.8°C warmer respectively. More bold claims suggested summer rainfall could decrease by up to 45%, with winter precipitation increasing by 39%. Severe droughts and floods would inevitably follow.

The Met Office concludes: “Governments will make use of UKCP18 to inform its adaption and mitigation planning and decision-making.” Unfortunately, they probably did.

The science writer Roger Pielke Jr. was the first to spot the IPCC’s rejection of RCP8.5, calling it “the most significant development in climate research in decades”. He said that the scenario described “impossible futures”, although the results have dominated climate research, headlines and policy for the best part of two decades. Helped also by the reporting in the Daily Sceptic which went viral across social media, the IPCC finding is firmly established in the public domain. But, notes Pielke, remarkably there has not been a peep from major US or international English language mainstream media outlets.

The New York Times is said to be perhaps the most prominent home for promoting news stories based on studies that rely on RCP8.5. It has said nothing, likewise the BBC and the Guardian. Green Blob-funded Climate Brief has covered RCP8.5 more than perhaps any other English language publication, but again silence reigns. Pielke is led to observe: “The outlets most invested in their longstanding promotion of RCP8.5 have the most to lose from a clear-eyed accounting of what its retirement means for science, policy and their own coverage.”

Nevertheless, there have been some rare sightings of mainstream coverage. The Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant published a front page story headed ‘UN Climate Panel Drops Doomsday Scenario’. The writer of the story Maarten Keulemans later posted on X:

Also in Europe, the Berliner Zeitung ran an article suggesting that “extreme climate scenarios played too large a role in public debate for too long”. Another German publication Die Welt also picked up the story, observing: “A lobby made RCP8.5 famous: the most sensationalist of all climate scenarios has determined scientific studies, media and politics – yet it is unrealistic. Now it is actually being phased out”.

Two members of that ‘lobby’ are the main science publications Nature and Science. In recent years it has sometimes been suggested that climate scientists have moved on from RCP8.5 but the evidence suggests the popular climate crackpipe is difficult to put down. Pielke notes that so far in 2026, more than 2,600 studies have been published using the high emission scenarios, and tens of thousands before that. Both Nature and Science have thrived on publishing RCP8.5 drivel – it will be interesting to see how they spin the passing of an attention-seeking, grant-manufacturing old friend.

The implications of RCP8.5’s demise are vast. Science and journalism careers will be affected, trust in another branch of politicised science will be diminished, rules and regulations imposing unnecessary financial climate costs will need to be re-written (don’t hold your breath), while the promoters of Net Zero will lose a vital fearmongering weapon propping up their Great Reset fantasy. Watch this space.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 03:30

Japanese Company Simplifies Ketchup Packaging Amid Ink Shortage Tied To Middle East Conflict

Kagome is revamping the packaging of several ketchup products after supply disruptions made white printing ink harder to source, according to Japan Today. The shortage stems from raw material constraints tied to the conflict in the Middle East.

Under the redesign, bottles of Kagome Tomato Ketchup will no longer feature the brand’s usual full white-and-red label. Instead, part of the bottle will be left clear, creating a more minimal look. Kagome said switching to a different ink is not a practical option because of technical printing limitations.

Japan Today writes that the updated packaging will be introduced gradually later this month for 500-gram, 300-gram, and 180-gram bottles.

The change reflects broader supply strain across Japan’s food industry. Earlier this week, Calbee Inc. said it would temporarily sell 14 potato chip varieties in monochrome packaging as shortages of naphtha — a petroleum-based material used in production — continue to disrupt operations.

Calbee’s affected products include popular flavors such as Lightly Salted, Consomme Punch, and Seaweed Salt. The company also said it will raise prices on 25 snack items starting Sept. 1, including potato chips and Jagarico. Chip prices are set to increase by 5% to 10%, while Jagarico products will rise by 3% to 10%.

The back-to-back announcements highlight how geopolitical tensions are rippling into everyday consumer goods, affecting everything from packaging materials to retail prices. For shoppers, the most visible impact may be simpler packaging now — and higher grocery bills later.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 02:45

Poland Is Now The Last Country Standing In The Way Of A Federalized Europe

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Its conservative president is totally against this project and can veto related legislation tabled by the liberal prime minister since the latter’s ruling coalition doesn’t have the two-thirds majority to overrule him, thus enabling Poland to play the role that Hungary did prior to Orban’s downfall.

Politico earlier reported that “European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen waited less than a day after Hungary voted Viktor Orbán out of office to call for the EU to get more power over national governments to force through foreign policy decisions.” In particular, she wants qualified majority voting on foreign policy matters whereby at least 55% of member states vote in favor and they represent at least 65% of the EU’s population, which hasn’t yet happened in order to safeguard state sovereignty.

Spanish journalist and analyst Javier Villamor published a piece at The European Conservative that same day about how “Hungary’s Fall Clears Path for a More Centralized EU”.

In brief, “The removal of Brussels’ most persistent opponent is set to accelerate plans to curb national vetoes, expand EU borrowing, and tighten control over member states.” The combined effect would amount to furthering the plan to federalize Europe in alignment with what the EU elites have wanted for some time already.

Von der Leyen’s plan in summer 2024 to “build a veritable union of defense” as well as Germany’s “two-speed Europe” proposal earlier this year and the proposal to fast-track Ukraine’s EU membership are all complementary means to this end that’ll now be easier to implement after Orban’s downfall. If progress is made on any of what was mentioned thus far, then states will lose even more sovereignty than they already have, and this could have disastrous implications for their national identity and social cohesion.

Many of the EU elites pushing this agenda are German, which is why Polish opposition leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski said before the election that Orban’s win would help prevent the EU from becoming a tool for “German neo-imperialism”. He also accused Germany in late 2021 of building a “Fourth Reich” through the EU. Polish President Karol Nawrocki, who’s an independent in alliance with Kaczynski’s conservatives, alluded last December to this significant non-military threat that the German-led EU poses to Poland.

One month prior, he shared his “vision of the direction in which the European Union should go”, which advocates reforming the bloc in order to restore states’ sovereignty, while last month he presented Poland and implicitly himself personally at CPAC as Europe’s conservative champions. With all this in mind, Poland is now the last country standing in the way of a federalized Europe since Nawrocki can veto related legislation and the ruling liberals don’t have the two-thirds majority to overrule him.

The next parliamentary elections aren’t till fall 2027, and given how close they’re expected to be, liberal Prime Minister Tusk isn’t expected to risk the public’s wrath by tabling doomed-to-fail federalization-related legislation. Accordingly, von der Leyen and her ilk’s plot won’t prospectively make any progress despite Orban’s downfall due to these Polish domestic political reasons, and the conservatives’ potential retaking of parliament could then doom it for another four years after that.

In Christian eschatology, the katechon is the one who prevents the arrival of the anti-Christ, so a political comparison among critics of the EU would be the one who prevents the bloc’s federalization. That was Orban up until last year, but then this role was shared with Nawrocki and is now exclusively held by him, with their Czech and Slovak counterparts being considered too susceptible to EU pressure. This is a huge responsibility, an historic one in fact, and his legacy will be determined by whether he stands strong.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 02:00

A Deadly Day In Butler

The following is an excerpt from the newly published book “The Trump Assassination Plots: What the Investigations Missed, and Why it Matters.” The book, which can be found here, attempts to provide the most complete account to date of the attempts on Donald Trump’s life (emphasis ours),

A Deadly Day in Butler

*CRACK* *CRACK* *CRACK*

Three shots rang throughout the Butler Farm Show - causing Trump to grab his ear and fall on the ground, his security detail piling on top of him moments later. Numerous rallygoers later said that they thought they were hearing fireworks at first, but there was a shooter on the AGR rooftop. His first three shots were aimed at Trump, but then he started spraying seemingly indiscriminately.

*CRACK* *CRACK* *CRACK* *CRACK* *CRACK*

As Crooks fired, Butler ESU operator Aaron Zaliponi, who was on the ground, could see his head peeking over the rooftop. Zaliponi had been one of the Butler ESU operators deployed seconds before Crooks started firing. When the shooting began, he was between Trump’s podium and the AGR building - by the fence that separated the Farm Show from the company’s property.

Keeping calm despite the bullets whizzing by, Zaliponi focused on Crooks through the EOTECH red-dot sight on his M4 AR platform SWAT rifle.

*CRACK*

Zaliponi returned fire with a single 5.56mm NATO 62 grain TAP Barrier projectile.

“I can see the gas emit from his barrel, his muzzle. Then right after that I hear the snap of his fifth shot go off. Then immediately after that, I press one off, and that’s whenever he immediately goes down. When I say he goes down, it wasn’t like he was ducking to get out of the way. I mean, like, I know I hit him. Like there’s no doubt about it,” Zaliponi later recounted. “He goes down. He kind of jerks to the right, and then he kind of slumps over slowly and then kind of slowly rolls backwards out of my field of view.”

For the next 10 seconds, the crowd seemed to be under a spell. Some in the stands ducked down, some turned toward the AGR building, and some looked with concern at Trump.

“What are we doing? What are we doing?” one of Trump’s security agents could be heard saying frantically.

At the bottom of a body-bunker of agents who piled onto Trump, the second-in-command of his detail could see that he was bleeding.

“Sir, are you okay?” said Nick Menster, the Assistant Special Agent in Charge (ASAC).

“I think so,” Trump said.

Menster said that he used a white cloth that Trump had at the podium to apply pressure on his ear - the left one.

“No, it’s my right ear,” Trump corrected the agent.

Counter-Snipers in Disarray

On the barn rooftops behind Trump, the Secret Service counter-snipers were in similar disarray. Though they had reoriented their weapons toward the AGR building at 6:10 P.M. and were aware that local police were pursuing someone in that vicinity, they were still caught flat-footed when the shooting began.

A tree was blocking the northern barn counter-sniper team’s view of the rooftop gunman, and video shows them seemingly flinching at the first shots. One of them later told congressional investigators that he and his partner believed they took fire.

“I’m telling you, I could have reached out and smacked these projectiles out of the air with my hand. They were that close. I could feel the air, the pressure difference in my eardrum as these rounds passed,” said a Secret Service counter-sniper, who has not been publicly identified.

While the Secret Service counter-snipers were scrambling, Sgt. Zaliponi kept a watchful eye on the rooftop. He saw Crooks slowly crawl back up and into his sights. But just as the local cop was about to put another bullet into the would-be assassin, Secret Service counter-sniper David King fired a final, 10th shot — a .300 Winchester Magnum bullet. King’s shot, fired from the southern barn behind Trump, came 15 seconds after shooting began and 10 seconds after it had stopped.

*CRACK*

“I got him,” King said.

It’s unclear exactly how long King had the rooftop gunman in his sights.

According to notes King took immediately after the shooting, he saw Crooks “crawling” into position before firing.

“I and my teammates positioned ourselves to observe that area that everyone was moving to. I noticed an individual, white male, white or gray shirt, low crawling on the roof. I noticed an AR-style weapon in his hands. As I moved to observe through my rifle scope I heard weapon fire,” King’s notes said.

“I looked up to see my engagement scope, looked back through the scope, observed the individual shooting, and engaged. At that time, the shooter dropped out of my sight in the scope. I continued to observe the area, as there were reports of another individual on the water tower at four o’clock,” his notes said.

However, King later told congressional investigators that he didn’t actually see Crooks crawling. In fact, he didn’t see Crooks until after he stopped firing, King said.

“I was observing the rooftops, didn’t see anything… When the first shot rang out, I identified the location that Crooks was at, put my binos down, got my rifle. At the time that I was getting into my rifle and getting the [view] of Crooks, that’s when I assumed that three rounds and then five went off,” King told House investigators.

King’s partner, team leader John Marciniak, claimed he didn’t see Crooks until he was dead.

Marciniak indicated that he was discombobulated after a bullet ruptured a hydraulic line on a nearby speaker tower, spraying him with fluid. At first, Marciniak thought that he was having a heat stroke. Another thought flashed through his head: “Am I seeing snow right now?”

Unlike his counterparts on the north barn, Marciniak and King didn’t think they were under fire — though Marciniak may have had second thoughts after speaking to federal investigators.

“At the time, I had no reason to believe shots were fired at us until speaking to the FBI… I guess a round — it was in the air, in our [general] direction, but not close to us.”

Excerpt from “The Trump Assassination Plots: What the Investigations Missed, and Why it Matters.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 23:20

Are There Really 'No Bad Ideas' When It Comes To 'Saving Our Democracy'?

Authored by Eric Utter via AmericanThinker.com,

Former Vice President Kamala (hic!) Harris recently opined that there are “no bad ideas” when it comes to brainstorming ways to reinvigorate the Democrat party.

During a May 13th livestream on something called the "Win with Black Women" podcast, Hic! Harris suggested that the Democrat party prepare an "expanded playbook" of ideas to help it retake power after the 2026 midterm elections.

Harris opined:

"And in that no bad ideas brainstorm, we talk about what we need to do and think about doing around the Electoral College. We talk about the idea of Supreme Court reform, which includes expanding the Supreme Court. We invite a conversation about multi-member districts."

The old sot suggested that, when Democrats retake the Senate, the Senate Judiciary Committee should quickly establish rules to "penalize people for lying" for Supreme Court justices and nominees.

It is always hilarious when Democrats speak of their dislike for lying … and always lie.

They are to prevarication as Kamala is to drinking, as retrievers are to … retrieving things. They can’t help themselves.

The Tipsy One added,

“Let's talk about statehood for Puerto Rico and D.C. These are the things I think that we've got to do.”

She concluded by saying of Democrats:

"We gotta fight fire with fire. We gotta be ruthless, too."

Democrats start fires. (They don’t always put them out, as clearly demonstrated in Los Angeles County last year.) And Democrats have always been ruthless, whether they were plantation owners or, more recently, possessed by Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) and the rabid desire to dispense, by any means necessary, with those with whom they disagree.

As for the notion that there are no bad ideas? How about “Let’s kill all the Jews” or “Islam is totally compatible with a free, democratic republic?” Or even, “I’ve only had 10 rum and cokes, I think I’ll take a nice drive in my car?” And let’s be honest, Kamala doesn’t have brainstorms, she has perhaps a mild squall or minor dust-up on occasion, maybe even a moderate gust of wind, but no brainstorms.

So, Democrats, just continue to call conservatives Nazis. Keep trying to imprison all your political opponents. An assassination or two might be needed here and there to, you know, “save our democracy.” (The problem is that Democrats actually think the country is their democracy, and that no one else has a right to govern it.)

Kamala may still have her mind set on Running for President Under the Influence (RPUI), but it is hard to see any current likely Democrat heading a ticket the equal of Vance-Rubio or vice-versa. As sure as water is wet, Democrats will resort to their time-tested tactics of slander, libel, lies, gas-lighting, projection, and cheating.

Maybe they should just, hic!, forcibly take power via a good, old-fashioned insurrection?

Anything to save their our democracy, right? 

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 22:10

By Targeting Dairy Farmers, ESG Wants To Decide Your Milk

Authored by Samantha Fillmore via RealClearMarkets,

It starts with a letter in the mail.

A dairy farmer opens it to find new requirements from their milk processing plant.

Herd data, energy usage, emissions figures. The letter calls it voluntary but if you don't comply, the plant can't take your milk. And if the plant can't take your milk, you're out of business.

That's 'Pathways to Dairy Net Zero' in practice...

Pathways to Dairy Net Zero (P2DNZ) is presented as a voluntary, science-based initiative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from dairy producers. In practice, however, it functions as yet another sector-specific implementation of global ESG and net-zero governance.

In the case of P2DNZ, this governance model is applied to large-scale milk producers. The result is the downward transfer of climate-compliance costs and onerous ESG restrictions on farmers. Especially mid-sized and small farms, while offering no plausible pathway to detectable global emissions reductions. In short, this is the latest attack on American farmers from globalist board rooms seeking to control what you consume.

P2DNZ may be presented as a voluntary, science-based initiative but in reality, it's the same ESG playbook we've seen used to squeeze entire industries into net-zero compliance without a single vote being cast. The pressure doesn't come from government. It comes from the giant food corporations at the top of the supply chain. It comes from the boardrooms of companies like Nestlé and Danone and filters down through processors until it lands on the farmer who has no real choice but to comply.

What begins as “guidance” quickly becomes obligation.

For dairy farmers, especially the ones that make up the lifeblood of the American Heartland, that obligation carries a heavy cost. P2DNZ effectively embeds climate compliance into the financial and commercial conduits of the industry. It deeply impacts how farmers access credit, who processes their milk, who buys their milk, and under what conditions they can continue operating. The burden doesn’t fall on distant institutions or multinational coalitions. It falls squarely on the people milking cows before sunrise, managing tight margins, and trying to pass their family farms on to the next generation.

And for what measurable gain?

Even under the most aggressive assumptions, eliminating all emissions from U.S. dairy production would have no detectable impact on global climate trends. That’s not a political statement; it’s a matter of scale. Yet the economic consequences are anything but theoretical. Farmers face rising compliance costs. Consumers face higher prices at the grocery store. And the industry itself faces increasing consolidation, as smaller producers struggle to keep up with mandates they had zero role in shaping.

This is the uncomfortable truth at the heart of P2DNZ: it is less about environmental outcomes and more about control. It’s about shifting decision-making power away from independent producers and toward a network of globalist financial and corporate actors.

The attacks on American agriculture have taken on many forms. From discriminating against the use of diesel- and gasoline-powered farming equipment in the lending market, to corporate shareholder resolutions calling on food companies to “reduce greenhouse gas emissions” by cutting beef production, to utter demands to adopt plant-based alternatives to actual meat, and even outright litigation designed to bankrupt American businesses and farmers. Regardless of the tactic, they share a common objective. To create a world in which every single human is under the thumb of a global set of rules that would ensure more pain and misery than anyone should entertain. 

The good news is that the current federal administration seems to be sticking up for small- and mid-sized American farms and dairy producers. Yesterday, the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins, shared a post on X highlighting the Pathways to Dairy Net Zero Problem. “Dairy farmers are vital in rural America, but now face radical ESG mandates disguised as “sustainability.” As (@Heartland Impact) notes, Pathways to Dairy Net Zero will burden small farms with costly compliance.”

P2DNZ is not an isolated initiative. It is the agricultural, and diary centered, expression of a broader ESG governance model that substitutes accounting targets for physical outcomes and private coordination for public accountability.

Hopefully, in the months and years to follow, more Americans and policymakers will become aware of the harms associated with incorporating ESG metrics into farming. American famers feed the nation, and they deserve better.

Samantha Fillmore (sfillmore@heartland.org) is the senior state government relations manager at The Heartland Institute.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 21:00

Largest Ukrainian Drone Attack On Moscow In Over A Year Leaves Four Dead

The Russian capital has just suffered possibly its single biggest and deadliest Ukrainian drone attack of the war - and certainly the largest attack wave on Moscow in the last year. It ironically comes exactly a week after President Zelensky signed on to a three day Russian 'Victory Day' ceasefire at the behest of President Trump. It also comes after several days of major Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine.

At least four people have been killed in the overnight large-scale assault wave, with dozens more wounded. Regional airports have been shut down, and there's been a sense of panic as the threat lingered into the daylight hours Sunday, with onlookers filming drones flying uncontested over Moscow airspace. 

via Telegram

"A woman died in Khimki, north of Moscow, and a person was trapped under rubble, regional governor Andrei Vorobiev said. A man and a woman were killed in the village of Pogorelki," BBC reports, citing local authorities.

Additionally, "A male Indian citizen was killed and three others injured, India's Moscow embassy said, but it was not clear whether these casualties were included in Vorobiev's tally. Another person died in Belgorod region bordering Ukraine."

The regional governor said that residences were on fire, with a home in the village of Subbotino, southwest of Moscow, being one of them. 

Reports say the attack marks the first time of the entire 4+ year long war that Ukraine directly struck a Moscow oil refinery, considered to be the most protected energy facility in the country, with multiple strikes landing on target.

Moment of attack on Moscow refinery:

For the first time, Ukraine has managed to hit the Moscow oil refinery, the most protected facility in the country - multiple strikes. pic.twitter.com/0CE3rYACwJ

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) May 17, 2026

Hours-long fire at the key refinery...

Among other burning Russian things across Moscow today, fires at Moscow's massive Solnechnogorsk oil facility continue to spread, 8 hours after Ukraine's strikes. pic.twitter.com/RDFOS8zMm6

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) May 17, 2026

Some eyewitness accounts said at one point drones were seen flying in formation over Moscow, as if to make a mockery of Russian anti-air defense.

Ukraine's drone swarms have long proven a major problem for Russia's military, being small and low to the ground, able to evade expensive air defenses which were designed to intercept larger, faster inbound projectiles like rockets or aircraft.

Overnight, Russia's defense ministry said 556 drones were intercepted around the country. Some 130 of them were intercepted in the Moscow region alone, but clearly at least dozens still made it through.

Ukriane hitting Moscow today… multiple times pic.twitter.com/iDu4rBqHct

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) May 17, 2026

Amid the suicide UAV attack mayhem, Sheremetyevo - Russia's busiest airport that serves Moscow - suffered drone damage and falling debris, but there were no reports of injury at the airport.

"The situation in the passenger terminals is calm. Sheremetyevo Airport is providing stable passenger and aircraft services," airport officials said.

There have also been dramatic scenes of massive fires just underneath busy highways, causing panicked drivers to try and get past the flames quickly and safely, and watching the skies above.

Damage at Sheremetyevo airport...

via X

Ukrainian President Zelensky later owned up to authorizing the attack, saying the strikes were an "entirely justified" response to the last several days of Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities, including Kiev. This past week saw massive Russian attacks, which killed seven bystanders and wounded many more, including children.

Rare moment of chaos and fear over Moscow...

Moscow. Drone attack continues right now. Our local correspondent reports air defense activity directly above him. https://t.co/1Y7rrdEsjB pic.twitter.com/bMgFm6NCpT

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) May 17, 2026

The tit-for-tat drone hits have increasingly expanded to include civilian neighborhoods on either side of the border, sadly. The ground war has lately been largely stale-mated, with Russia having the clear edge, but the air war has been heating up - with both sides suffering serious damage, particularly at energy sites.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 15:45

Massive Mushroom Cloud 'Test' Blast Rattles Uninformed Residents Outside Jerusalem

Late Saturday night, a massive explosion and a bright fireball illuminated the skies over Israel's Beit Shemesh, deeply rattling local residents and setting off rampant speculation in local media and online commentary. 

The area lies just 19 miles west of Jerusalem, close enough to be located within Jerusalem District. Curiously, the state-owned Tomer rocket propulsion defense ministry-linked firm subsequently sought clarify that the blast was actually a controlled, pre-planned test and that authorities were notified in advance.

However, community members have complained about receiving absolutely no warning, and were shocked at the immensity of the blast which lit up the night sky, visible for many miles.

Tensions were already running high in the city which had been struck multiple times by Iranian missiles during the recent war. The sudden detonation fueled widespread anxiety and anger among residents already on edge, bracing for the potential renew of the Iran war and thus Iranian ballistic missile attacks.

Times of Israel has cited Channel 12, saying that "the test involved propellants for rockets, including those with a range of thousands of kilometers."

The same report interestingly called it "apocalyptic" in appearance but suggested this was misleading:

On Sunday, Kan reported that in the wake of the panic caused by the blast, a meeting was held at Tomer during which it was decided, in coordination with the Defense Ministry, to warn the public ahead of similar tests.

Tomer sources told the broadcaster that due to operational needs, the company is conducting testing at all hours, including during the night.

According to Kan, the company recently hired dozens of new employees, and the test was scheduled at night due to production constraints. Sources said it was carried out five kilometers from any population areas and that weather conditions had made the blast appear more "apocalyptic" than it actually was.

But it was significant enough to result in the convening of Israeli emergency management and defense officials, who subsequently told the public an investigation would ensue. The Defense Ministry said in the aftermath that "the issue of advance warning to the public will be examined with the company."

MASSIVE MUSHROOM CLOUD explodes in Israel pic.twitter.com/ZE9WywA1rX

— RT (@RT_com) May 16, 2026

The company in question, Tomer, also separately stated, "A routine and planned test was carried out, conducted according to plan and achieving all its objectives."

It explained: "All emergency forces were notified in advance, as is customary, and the fact that emergency and rescue forces were not called in attests to this. The videos filmed from a distance amplified the force of the explosion and did not reflect the fact that this was a routine event."

But longtime resident and Beit Shemesh City Council member David Gozlan shot back, "There were quarries here, there were explosions at the Hartuv quarries, there were quite a few things here - but we have never experienced anything like this."

The whole incident saw US 'security experts' quickly speculate and weigh in, and try and make sense of it on Sunday morning...

ISRAEL SAYS MASSIVE EXPLOSION IS "CONTROLLED DEMOLITION" ; VIDEOS SHOW A DIFFERENT STORY

UAE NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ALSO ATTACKED TODAY!

w/ Fmr. US Navy SCPO Malcolm Nance https://t.co/msIgXcSk74

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) May 17, 2026

Naturally the biggest fear among locals was that a final big Iranian attack was underway, also given prior reports of hypersonic missiles launched on Israel during the height of the 38-day Operation Epic Fury bombing campaign on the Islamic Republic.

Israelis across the country spent many anxious and sleepless nights in bomb shelters and hundreds of Iranian projectiles rained down - many of them targeting defense industrial sites in the Israeli countryside.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 13:25

AI vs Affordability And Rates

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Last week, we contemplated, for the first time, that we might need to Understand Universal Basic Income. The timing was very good as on Monday, South Korea floated the idea of transferring some AI-driven tax revenue to its citizens. As uncertainty around jobs, income, and costs continue to weigh on overall confidence, expect this subject to get more airtime in the political arena. The concept of UBI does go hand in hand with two competing themes: AI and Affordability.

China, Iran, and a Whole Lotta Nothing

Iran took a backseat to the Summit in China. We had relatively low expectations for the Summit. The cards were stacked somewhat in China’s favor as examined in China and Trade. It turns out that even our low expectations seemed to have set the bar too high. Friday’s title pretty much sums it up: My President Went to Beijing and all I got was this Crummy T-Shirt. There may yet be some deals announced, either with Iran or with China, but it looks like we are starting the week roughly where we started the prior week, but with even lower expectations.

The Oil Curve

While Brent crude is most impacted by the ongoing problems in the Middle East, we will stick with WTI because that is what affects Americans the most.

One of the talking points for the admin had been that the oil market was predicting a “quick” resolution. Some officials pointed to the August contracts as demonstrating that $100 oil was a blip and things would “normalize” quickly. While $80 was still higher than pre-war, the argument had some legs. But now, the August contract is up to $95, and we are seeing $80 priced in all the way into 2027. This is certainly “higher for longer.” What is increasingly concerning is that it is difficult to tell if this is pricing in a re-opening or not. It was entirely plausible, a month or more ago, to believe that with the Strait of Hormuz getting back to normal levels of transit, global energy prices would “normalize” quickly. It is increasingly unclear what the “new” normal is. How much damage has been done to the “organism” that is energy? How quickly can things be fixed? Is the “new” normal the same as the “old” normal (see "Why One Bank Thinks It's "Magical Thinking" That Hormuz Reopens In June")?

Increasingly there are more and more questions about how long the damage will last, and if that damage will continue to elevate not just the price of oil, but also gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, etc.

The U.S. can continue to release its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). It is unclear how low the reserves can go (I’m told that some amount needs to be left in place for structural integrity). We have released about ½ of what was added back to the SPR. Keep an eye on this, as it does limit our options over time. No one is expecting the problems to last that long, yet here we are, 3 months into the conflict, and transit through the Strait remains limited. Higher for longer in the oil market is the single biggest issue for Global Affordability.

AI versus Affordability

We received some consumer spending data this week which wasn’t too bad. It did seem to highlight, yet again, the problems facing people in the lower income brackets. I’m not convinced it doesn’t obfuscate that we are spending more to get less, but that is for another day. But here is a “simplified” version of a chart I’ve seen in various formats.

Companies servicing the consumer are not seeing much appreciation in their stock price.

Companies making chips are growing like gangbusters!

Is this sustainable? That question is being asked with increased urgency. The “parabolic” rise is raising some concerns. Without a doubt, this is the sector experiencing growth. It does seem to justify not only today’s prices, but also possibly even higher multiples. The earnings engine (and growth) is there, but this market has had a habit of hitting “high-conviction” trades.

I find this chart extremely weird, but also interesting.

SOXL is a 3x leveraged SOX ETF. The assets in this ETF are about $20 billion, but the shares outstanding have been declining. While it may be inappropriate to label SOXL as a “degen” trade, I’m going to go there. “Degen” is an “affectionate” way of describing a group of very aggressive investors. Whether it is day trading leveraged ETFs, making bets in crypto altcoins, or playing in 0DTE options, there is a crowd of very aggressive traders that I will call “degen” for now (Warren Buffett would probably just call them gamblers).

I do think this crowd represents the “tip of the spear” on retail sentiment. If that assessment is correct, then it might indicate that retail is done (or almost done) fueling this trade.

The SOXX ETF weighs in at $33 billion (I had to do a double take, that it is “only” $33 billion while SOXL is $20 billion). The share count here tends to be more correlated with price. If anything, the last decline in SOXX was possibly telegraphed by a declining share count.

My view is that retail is slowing down on the semi-trade, just as institutions, including hedge funds, are treating it as a “must-have” position.

Retail, unlike funds, don’t have stop losses. Is this setting up for a pullback? Based more on positioning, and who is positioned, rather than the fundamentals?

Without the AI and semi story, market averages would be much lower. That is a fact. Is there anything to indicate that this trade cannot continue? No. But, I am curious what retail is up to here, and whether we are seeing enough of a pullback to create a reasonable pullback?

Which Brings Us To Rates

Yes, I “cherry picked” April 2024 as a starting point, because the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is unchanged, while rates across the globe have risen. Most noticeably for Japan. In 2 years, the 10-year JGB went from yielding less than 1% to almost 3%. This is incredibly important. Japan as a “nation of savers” has been funding much of the world’s debt. I remain convinced that “at or near-zero” bond buyers of all levels of sophistication will take steps to get positive yield. So, when Japan hovered near 0% on rates, many investors would find alternatives to their domestic market to get yield. That has changed.

Globally, U.S. Treasuries, are fairly “generic.”

• If you do not need dollar exposure, you have local FX bonds that can serve your needs.
• All countries face a variety of risks to their economy. All central banks are trying to navigate the data, their expectations, and their mandate. It is less certain today how the U.S. central bank will respond to data than it was a few months ago – so that uncertainty should have a cost?
  • It is likely one reason why our agency debt team is seeing agency and super sovereign debt spreads to Treasuries at very low levels.

Defense Spending Requires Money

• While ProSec is about far more than defense spending, it certainly incorporates the need to spend more. Japan – spending more. Europe/NATO – spending more and it seems inevitable that they will have to ramp that up.

The AI and Data Center Build Out Competes for Money

• The semiconductor valuations depend heavily on data center and AI spending. That is being funded in a large part by debt.

We have been arguing for “range-bound” Treasury trading, while slowly raising the midpoint of the range.

I’m a bit hesitant to be very bearish on bonds here, as 5% or so on 30s (we are well above 5.12% as of Friday’s close) has been a level where this admin has taken steps to drive yields lower.

I could see an “Operation Twist” sort of announcement (the Fed selling shorter-dated bonds they own, to buy longer-dated bonds), but I’m not sure they are prepared to act.

What I find “interesting” is that Bessent no longer seems to be able to do “no wrong.” At the height of Liberation Day fears, Bessent could appear on TV and calm things instantaneously. I heard of the TACO BELL trade. Trump Always Chickens Out. Bessent Explains Longer Later. It was pretty clever (I did not come up with that).

Maybe it is because the Iran conflict is so far removed from what a Treasury Secretary does, that his latest appearances haven’t had the same impact? Maybe I have Bessent Delusion Syndrome? (Anything is possible).

But as many market participants seem to be waiting for some sort of “intervention” to helps bonds, I’m left wondering if they can accomplish that easily now? 

Global bond yields are not helping. Higher for Longer on oil is not helping (that seems easier to correct – via peace with Iran, but that doesn’t seem imminent).

Bottom Line

Not “pound the table” bearish on bonds or stocks, but certainly not bullish. Not even really bullish for a trade. With the President likely looking for some “wins” and the admin likely exploring what they can do on the yield front, we could see relief in bond yields and higher stock prices, but I want hedges and would fade any such bounce. Price action in stocks seemed almost “sickly” on Thursday and Friday where every bounce/rally met some serious selling. Maybe all the AI-trained algos have read Sell in May and Go Away? Sorry, had to go there.

Caution into the summer seems warranted. Markets have priced in a lot of good news (China, Iran, and Semis), often multiple times (at some point is an earnings surprise really a surprise when everyone surprises the same way?).

Maybe it is time to “unprice” some of the good news? Affordability remains an issue and it seems to be becoming increasingly entrenched, which is a problem for bonds and stocks as a whole, if not just for the AI/data center spend, where my bigger questions are around positioning, than anything else.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 12:50

Axios Warns Cuba Stockpiled 300 Attack Drones With Crosshairs On U.S. Homeland

Well, well, well.

On Feb. 3, we first asked whether a Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0 was quietly taking shape on the collapsed, communist-run Caribbean island of Cuba.

But instead of Soviet missiles, we warned that Havana may be stockpiling Russian-made Geranium one-way attack drones with the operational range to threaten major U.S. oil and gas refineries in the Gulf of America, key military bases, data centers, power grid infrastructure, and potentially even Washington, D.C.

Nearly three and a half months ago, we laid out the framework for a potential drone threat against the homeland originating from Cuba, using an infographic published by the Russian think tank Rybar.

Rybar is a noteworthy source in this context, and Western officials are not fans. The State Department has offered a $10 million reward for information on the outlet through its Rewards for Justice program, while both the European Union and the United Kingdom have sanctioned it.

At the time, Rybar wrote: "But what would the Cubans do in the event of a conflict? Let us hypothetically imagine that Havana decides to resist the Americans and chooses to fight. In that case, the already world-famous Geran strike drones could come to their aid."

Fast forward to Sunday: Axios, citing newly obtained U.S. intelligence, reports that Cuba has accumulated roughly 300 military drones from Russia and Iran and has discussed potential wartime strike scenarios targeting Guantanamo Bay, U.S. naval vessels, and possibly Key West.

Axios spoke with a senior US official who said the Cuban drone threat is becoming a growing national security concern because of Cuba's proximity to the U.S., the presence of Iranian military advisers in Havana, and the rapid proliferation of low-cost drone warfare.

"When we think about those types of technologies being that close, and a range of bad actors from terror groups to drug cartels to Iranians to the Russians, it's concerning," the official said.

The official noted that Cuba has been building drone stockpiles of "varying capabilities" from Russia and Iran since 2023.

Late last week, CIA Director John Ratcliffe met with officials in Havana, which appeared to reopen the channel for political dialogue between the two countries.

Ratcliffe and top U.S. officials, some of whose faces were blurred in images released by the CIA on X, held high-level talks with Cuba's Interior Minister, the head of Cuban intelligence, and Raúl Castro's grandson, Raulito Rodríguez Castro.

Havana, Cuba pic.twitter.com/7S7TtJPyf5

— CIA (@CIA) May 14, 2026

AP News noted that Cuban officials presented a report to Ratcliffe and his team, claiming to demonstrate that the communist-run island poses no threat to U.S. national security.

Meanwhile, the most glaring vulnerability in U.S. airspace is the absence of a low-cost, layered counter-drone technology capable of detecting and defeating one-way attack drones. That gap spans energy infrastructure, stadiums, data centers, military facilities, power substations, and other high-value civilian assets.

This is precisely why private equity funds have recently rushed into the space. PE firms are increasingly moving to fund, acquire, and import battle-tested Ukrainian drone and counter-drone systems into the U.S. market, positioning for a rapid phase of domestic airspace fortification.

Related:

• Micro AI Sentry Guns May Be Next Layer Of Defense For Data Centers Against Kamikaze Drones

We've outlined this theme for months, even before it became a national topic. Follow the money, as we've mentioned, just watch the parabolic rise of 'war unicorns' in the quarters and years ahead.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 12:15

 

Tennis great-turned-philanthropist Roger Federer delivered the Commencement address at Dartmouth on June 9, 2024. The eight-time Wimbledon champion gave pointers on how to win at life. Federer received a Doctor of Humane Letters degree at the Commencement ceremony.

The post Roger Federer at Dartmouth 2024 Commencement Address appeared first on The Big Picture.

Remember: In A Crisis, Everyone Will Consider Themselves 'The Good Guys'

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via substack,

The state has two monopolies it must protect whatever the cost: the monopoly on decreeing what is legal tender and on force.

We’re entering an era in which push comes to shove will lead to immovable objects encountering irresistible forces. All sorts of verities and vanities will be bulldozed as kicking the can down the road descends into desperation to stave off collapse, a desperation that unleashes second order effects the desperate did not anticipate. The only responses at this late stage are even more desperate, so desperation is self-reinforcing.

The previous eras of institutional-state desperation were 1) The 1930s Great Depression, 2) the 1973-74 Gas Crisis and 3) the inflationary recession of 1980-82. The desperation in the 1930s was truly serious: banning private ownership of gold other than coin-collecting, attempting to remake the Supreme Court, one new federal program after another, slashing the wages of municipal / city employees to keep as many people employed as the shrinking revenues could allow, and so on.

The desperation of the 1970s and 80s were relatively narrow in scope, but felt serious at the time: gas rationing and wage/price controls in the 1970s, and then rocketing bond yields / interest rates in the early 1980s that triggered millions of layoffs in interest-sensitive sectors such as autos and housing.

The strong-arm policies of the 1970s and 1980s worked, and were relatively brief. The crises lasted around two years, and then things normalized.

The strong-arm policies of the 1930s didn’t work, and desperation slid into despair. The official happy-talk continued, but it rang increasingly hollow as the decade ground on.

Given the present-day confluence of disintegrative forces, a.k.a. mutually reinforcing polycrisis, hopes for a brief recession and a quick return to “growth” may be misplaced. If inflation and scarcities intensify, the usual bag of tricks--dropping interest rates to zero, flooding the financial sector with credit / liquidity, increasing federal pork spending, etc.--will not just fail, they will be counter-productive, fueling inflationary forces not in assets that enrich but in real-world goods and services that impoverish.

The footprint of the Central State--and state/county/local government--was relatively modest in the 1930s compared to the footprint of the state now: 36% of GDP in the US (23% federal, 13% state/local) and much higher in many developed nations.

Note that in a recession, GDP drops and state spending tends to rise to compensate for the contraction of private sector spending. so this ratio can climb very quickly.

To a degree few question, the state is the nation. The nation is defined by the state’s legal structure and its ability to enforce that structure. If the state collapses, the nation is in dire straits.

Should the state’s finances enter a self-reinforcing death-spiral, the desperation will quickly reach a level in which nothing is off the table--no extreme is too extreme. The typical self-reinforcing death-spiral is a currency crisis in which the currency loses value so rapidly that everyone holding it wants to convert it into some other form of value. That selling is self-reinforcing.

But that doesn’t exhaust the possibilities of the state’s finances becoming unsustainable, either financially and/or politically. A slow-moving crisis can phase shift into a fast-moving crisis like an avalanche no one is prepared for.

States face an insoluble dilemma: the powerful interests that dominate state decisions find higher taxes on corporations, trusts, foundations and the wealthy unacceptable, while the public living off the state’s largesse finds cuts deep enough to matter unacceptable.

Recency bias kicks in hard: after decades of “growth” and expanding state spending, anything that smacks of discipline or sacrifice is rejected out of hand as needless: why can’t we just go on as we have for the past 17 years, where assets soar in value, and the state spends more every year?

This leads to the illusory “solution” of kicking the can down the road: monetary policy tricks, fiscal sleight of hand, fake policy-tweak fixes presented as “solutions,” and so on. This magic can prop up the illusion of sustainability for years, but since every trick eventually makes the problems worse, this illusory “solution” actually hastens the push comes to shove moment where everyone is seated at the banquet of consequences.

Those tasked with saving the state’s finances from collapsing will view themselves as absolutely The Good Guys, working to saving the nation from greedy leeches on the state, speculators, financiers and those hoarding wealth acquired back when the state could afford to be generous. Now that things are at risk of unraveling, the fun and games are over and we need to do whatever it takes to save the nation--i.e. the state.

The wealthy trying to evade the new taxes will consider themselves The Good Guys: we worked hard for our wealth, created jobs and innovations that benefited the nation. Why should we give our hard-earned wealth to a corrupt, spendthrift state?

In the lower reaches of the economy, those evading taxes will also see themselves as The Good Guys: I’m just trying to support my family, and it’s the rich who should make the sacrifices as they have more than enough.

Those enforcing the expropriations / taxes will develop a unit-cohesion us-vs-them esprit de corps--the ultimate Good Guys who have to put up with both sets of greedy weasels: the weasels sucking off the state and the weasels trying to evade their civic duty to pay what they owe. Their tolerance for the self-serving claims of being “the good guys” by those protesting massive cuts in state spending and massive increases in taxes will be low to start and drop from there.

The state has two monopolies it must protect whatever the cost: the monopoly on decreeing what is legal tender and on force. So when the NSA is tasked with ferreting out miscreants cheating the state, tax-evading millionaires and other federal agencies are tasked with renditioning those who reckon they evaded their responsibilities by fleeing overseas, these are the tip-of-the-spear Good Guys who are trying to save the nation from the terminal rot of a citizenry that has long since lost any sense of civic duty that demands sacrifice and frugality.

Should push come to shove, nothing will be off the table. It will be too late to whine that we’re one of the Good Guys; the money from the state will stop flowing, and the safety deposit boxes and overseas accounts will be opened by force. As the cries of anguish increase, the demands to close down the tax havens of the super-wealthy will reach fever pitch, and whomever is tasked with saving the nation will have an agenda that reverses the order and the priority of wealth and power.

The super-wealthy are safe until they’re understood as the key impediment to saving the state. Right now, nobody thinks push could come to shove to the point that nothing will be off the table in terms of force. States that wait too long to act find their ability to apply force is insufficient to save the state, and this will weigh ever heavier on those tasked with protecting the state from financial collapse.

The irony here is the forces protecting their self-interests by kicking the can down the road are hurrying the collision of immovable objects and irresistible forces. Those who reckon they’ll do fine if the state collapses will find themselves nostalgic for the days when they could whine about a tax on second homes worth in excess of $5 million.

Chaos Unleashed: When “Irrational” Makes Perfect Sense.

I’m not saying I “like” this or that it’s inevitable; I’m saying the longer illusory “solutions” of kicking the can down the road are substituted for real solutions, the more likely a crisis of the state’s financial coherence becomes. Betting on which one wins--immovable objects or irresistible forces--might be a lose-lose proposition.

The only dinosaurs that survived the meteor strike were small birds that didn’t need much to get by, were mobile and were adapted to tough conditions. The descendants of those birds are the ones we see today.

How birds survived the dinosaurs’ doomsday (Scientific American)

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 10:30

The post Idiot Speak: Elon Musk’s Plans for Gutting Social Security and a Universal High Income appeared first on CEPR.

Americans Face The Highest Memorial Day Gas Prices On Record

The nationwide average price of regular gasoline marginally increased on Thursday, after five straight days of decline, the American Automobile Association (AAA) said in a May 14 statement.

The national average price is “at the same range as it was in 2022, the year gas prices hit record highs. Travelers are preparing to hit the road in record numbers next week, and drivers will be facing the highest Memorial Day gas prices in four years,” AAA said.

On Friday, prices declined less than a cent to $4.52 per gallon from Thursday’s $4.53. In six states, average gas prices exceeded $5: Illinois, Nevada, Alaska, Oregon, Hawaii, and Washington. Prices exceeded $6 in California. Texas had the lowest price at $3.99 per gallon.

While Thursday’s average gas price was lower than last week’s, prices at the pump continue to remain elevated as crude oil hovers around the $100 per barrel price level.

With prices near record highs as Memorial Day looms, Naveen Athrappully reports for The Epoch Times that the federal government has taken various measures to ease the pressure on gas prices.

On May 11, the Department of Energy (DOE) announced that it would loan 53 million barrels of oil from America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve to petroleum companies.

“Deliveries will begin immediately as the Department continues to move swiftly to address short-term supply disruptions and strengthen U.S. energy security,” the DOE said.

Earlier, the U.S. government had removed sanctions on Iranian and Russian crude oil stranded at sea to ease the global oil supply shortage.

In late March, the Environmental Protection Agency issued a temporary fuel waiver allowing gasoline with higher ethanol blends to be sold nationwide beginning May 1 to curb rising prices. The waiver will remain in effect until May 20.

Since the U.S.–Iran war began in late February, Tehran has repeatedly attacked and threatened commercial ships in the critical Strait of Hormuz, a waterway located south of Iran through which over a fifth of global seaborne oil trade is transported. This has disrupted shipments through the strait, pushing oil prices higher.

On Feb. 27, a day before the conflict began, Brent crude oil futures closed the day at around $72 per barrel. On May 15, oil was trading at around $108 as at 9:10 a.m. ET.

Washington and Tehran have yet to negotiate an end to the war, which has kept markets tense and oil prices elevated.

Tight Oil Market

Since the start of the war, crude oil output from OPEC has fallen by more than 30 percent, the group said in a May 13 report.

Current OPEC output is at 18.89 million barrels per day, down from 28.65 million barrels before the conflict broke out. The organization cut its outlook for the year, predicting global crude oil demand would grow by less than 1.2 million barrels per day, down from its previous forecast of 1.4 million barrels per day.

However, “global economic growth continues to show resilience for this year despite geopolitical tensions,” the report said.

In a May 14 post, ING Bank said that the oil market is “eagerly awaiting” the outcome of the meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Trump’s summit in China ended on May 15.

“The market could be pinning too much hope on the US–China talks yielding some positive results on Iran,” ING said.

“Some hope that China could exert pressure on Iran to reach a deal with the US, to end the war and lead to a resumption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Morgan Stanley said in a May 12 report that the risk of prolonged oil supply disruption, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, has now increased.

Prior to the conflict, around 32 ships used to traverse the strait daily between January and March, a number that crashed to roughly two during March–April. There is now a 12 million-barrel-per-day shortage in global oil production.

“While a 12 million barrel-per-day difference may not appear large in a global context, it represents the largest supply shock since the 1970s OPEC oil embargo,” Morgan Stanley said.

“Further, its persistence amplifies the risk of broader economic impacts. Moreover, the timing of this disruption further compounds the issue, with the gasoline-heavy summer driving season (May through August) quickly approaching.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 09:55

Attack Drone Hits Near UAE Nuclear Power Plant

Abu Dhabi authorities report that a kamikaze drone struck an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in Al Dhafra. Officials said there were no injuries, no impact on radiological safety levels, and no disruption to plant operations.

Dubai-based newspaper Gulf News cited the Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation, which said the one-way drone attack on the Arab world's first commercial nuclear facility did not affect the safety of the nuclear power plant or the readiness of its essential systems. FANR added that all systems were operating normally as of late Sunday.

Barakah operates four APR-1400 reactors with a combined capacity of 5.6 gigawatts, generating about 40 terawatt-hours annually, or about 25% of the UAE's electricity. Any successful attack on Barakah would cripple the UAE's power grid.

The incident comes as the broader U.S.-Iran truce remains fragile, with President Trump recently describing the ceasefire as being on "life support."

Trump told reporters on Friday that Iran's latest proposal was "unacceptable" and blamed the Iranians for backtracking on the nuclear issue.

In response to Iranian demands, the Trump administration has set five conditions of its own for Tehran, according to Iran's Fars News Agency.

Those conditions include:

• No U.S. compensation for damages

• Transfer of 400 kg of uranium from Iran to the United States

• Limiting Iran's nuclear activities to only one operating facility

• No release of even 25% of frozen Iranian assets

• Linking any ceasefire across all fronts to the continuation of negotiations

Here are the latest headlines from the Gulf region (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Peace Talks

• The US has set five main conditions for a prospective peace agreement with Iran, including no compensation payments, removal of 400 kilograms of uranium, limiting nuclear infrastructure to a single facility, releasing less than 25% of frozen assets, and suspension of certain activities. [BFW]

• Iran's foreign minister said a lack of trust is the biggest obstacle in negotiations to end the war with the US, citing contradictory messages that have made Tehran reluctant about American intentions. [APW]

• Iran would be open to diplomatic help, particularly from China, to help ease tensions. [APW]

Hormuz Chokepoint

• Iran said transit through the Strait of Hormuz will flow once the conflict with the US and Israel is over, but the sides are no closer to resolving their differences. [BN]

• Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely frozen, with only limited vessel movements observed and most tied to Iranian-linked shipping. [BN]

• A Vietnam-bound supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude, which was halted by US forces after crossing the Strait of Hormuz, has resumed its journey after getting clearance. [BN]

Gulf Attacks

• A drone strike caused a fire at an electrical generator outside Abu Dhabi's Barakah nuclear power plant on Sunday, with no injuries reported and no impact on radiological safety. [BFW] [APW]

• The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia carried out multiple strikes against Iran after their countries were attacked by the regime in the early days of the war. [WSJ]

• Iran seized a support vessel owned by a Chinese security firm near the Strait of Hormuz, appearing to signal it is unwilling to permit armed protection even for ships sailing on behalf of its strongest global backer. [WSJ]

Economic Impact

• Iraq is currently pumping just 1.4 million barrels a day due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the knock-on impact on production facilities.

• Israel's economy contracted 3.3% in the first quarter in annualized terms, deeper than the expected 2% drop, due to security-related shutdowns from the war with Iran.

• The Philippines' gross gaming revenue fell 16% in the first quarter due to economic headwinds from the Iran war impact. [BFW]

Diplomatic Signals

• Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has been named Iran's special envoy for China affairs. [BFW]

• President Trump returned from a two-day summit with China's Xi Jinping, where both agreed the strait should be open but made no apparent progress toward that goal. [BN]

Energy Market

• Great Global Energy Rewiring Accelerates: UAE To Double Crude Export Capacity Bypassing Hormuz Chaos [ZH]

• World Starts To "Build" Around Hormuz; Japan Buying UAE Oil Bypassing Strait As ADNOC To Spend $55 Billion On Pipelines

• Why One Bank Thinks It's "Magical Thinking" That Hormuz Reopens In June

Brent Crude

Professional subscribers can read the latest Hormuz reports from Wall Street at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 08:59