Rubio Says We Must "Preemptively Prevent" Iran From Attacking US Forces Already In Region

Update(1629ET): One Mideast regional analyst has pointed to a significant contradiction in the current White House stance and rhetoric on Iran, amid the military threats and build-up, and suggests this time the warnings of US action are much more serious:

If you read Trump's latest post on Iran carefully, you will understand what America's real worry is. Until now, Trump was talking about the protesters. But today, he said time is running out for Iran to make a nuclear deal. "No nuclear weapons", he wrote. If you remember correctly, after the June 22 attack on Iran, Trump had claimed that he had "obliterated" Iran's nuclear program. And Iran's nuclear program had gone dark after the June war because Iran denied access to the IAEA to the bombed facilities. If Trump had obliterated Iran's nuclear program in June 2025, why does he want a nuclear deal in January 2026

"This is the core issue, not democracy and human rights," the analyst, Stanly Johny, writes. Indeed in the halls of power it's very unlikely that Western officials actually believe this is all about "standing with Iranian protesters" (which by the way many days ago subsided). Another X commenter pointed back to the several regime change conflicts of the last couple decades:

"Free Iran" means exactly what "Free Iraq," "Free Libya," and "Free Syria" meant. That is the material reality, however you try to spin it. Either you’re calling for another US-engineered destruction, or you’re so politically naive your opinion can be automatically disregarded.

In the meantime, America's top diplomat has just come up with a whole new category and 'justification' for potential US attack on Iran: "preemptively prevent"... Watch below:

Rubio says US forces are amassing in the region to potentially "preemptively prevent" Iran from attacking US forces already in the region. Pristine logic. Especially after Trump just announced he's sending a "Massive Armada," and threatened a "far worse" attack than last June pic.twitter.com/dbHMXuUhC9

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) January 28, 2026

Rubio said during the Wednesday Senate Foreign Relations Hearing focused on Venezuela, "And so I think it’s wise and prudent to have a force posture within the region that could respond and potentially, not necessarily what’s going to happen, but if necessary, preemptively prevent the attack against 1000s of American servicemen and other facilities in the region. And our allies." But ironically this is just after admitting the US ordered additional assets to the region in the first place, which are the same assets now supposedly under threat by Tehran.

"I hope it doesn’t come to that, but that’s I think what you’re seeing now is the ability to posture assets in the region to defend against what could be an Iranian threat against our personnel," the secretary of state said. 

* * *

Things between Tehran and Washington are moving fast according to an eerily familiar pattern hearkening back to the lead-up to the 12-day June war, when there was some wrangling over negotiations - and talk of good faith efforts at dialogue - just before the US greenlighted a surprise Israeli attack which also saw US entry into the conflict by the close of it (whereupon nuclear facilities were hit by American bombers).

"Our stance is clear," Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Wednesday as the US has expressed the desire to strike a deal. "Negotiations don’t go along with threats, and talks can only take place when there are no longer menaces and excessive demands."

• IRAN SAYS WILL RESPOND TO US 'LIKE NEVER BEFORE' IF PUSHED
• IRAN SAYS READY FOR TALKS WITH US BASED ON MUTUAL RESPECT
• OIL PARES GAINS AS IRAN SAYS ITS READY FOR TALKS WITH US

Araqchi confirmed his country has had no recent communication with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and has not sought talks with Washington. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that another US "armada" was moving "beautifully" toward Iran, but he hoped Tehran would ultimately strike a deal and avoid conflict.

via The Australian 

The Iranian FM noted, however, that unnamed intermediaries were "holding consultations" and remained in touch with Iranian officials.

Separately, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Tuesday that Tehran supports any process "within the framework of international law" that helps avert war. The Saudis have joined the UAE in declaring that the US cannot use its airspace for aggression against Iran. 

This shouldn't pose too big a challenge for the Pentagon, however, which has a build-up of assets at its Qatar base and with a carrier group near Iran in regional waters.

But The Wall Street Journal disagrees, saying this could be a significant setback if the White House wishes to pursue war plans:

The declarations from the two Gulf states represent a foreign policy setback for the Trump administration as it seeks to ratchet up pressure on Tehran, which has defied Washington’s demand that it halt uranium enrichment and end the suppression of protesters.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto leader, outlined his country’s position while talking by phone with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. 

A Saudi readout of the Tuesday call said the crown prince had stressed that the kingdom “will not allow its airspace or territory to be used for any military actions against Iran.”

Previously, during Monday remarks, President Trump said "They want to make a deal. I know so. They called on numerous occasions. They want to talk." He added ominously, "We have a big armada next to Iran. Bigger than Venezuela."

US forces stationed across the Middle East are also meanwhile taking part in large-scale war games aimed at showcasing combat readiness, as Washington ramps up its military footprint, and as Trump is presented with an array of 'options'. All of this supposedly steps from Washington 'concern' for large-scale protests from earlier this month, where thousands died - but which also included the deaths of police and security services.

In a statement which kicked off the week, US Central Command said: "Ninth Air Force will be conducting a multi-day readiness exercise to demonstrate the ability to deploy, disperse, and sustain combat airpower across the Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility."

President Trump issued the following "time is running" out message Wednesday morning:

Trump tells the Iranian regime that "time is running out", saying that if there is no deal, the "next attack will be far worse" than Operation Midnight Hammer pic.twitter.com/FnziIVAxRt

— Faytuks News (@Faytuks) January 28, 2026

The command added that "this exercise is designed to enhance asset and personnel dispersal capability, strengthen regional partnerships and prepare for flexible response execution throughout CENTCOM."

The sweeping drills are unfolding against the backdrop of sharply rising tensions with Tehran in which an oil blockade and potential strikes on senior officials in the Islamic Republic are being considered. But in terms of blockades, two can play at that game, as the Strait of Hormuz remains among the most vital waterways for the global market, and the IRGC has threatened that its forces can shut it to international transit.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 16:29

Deranged Nurse Fired After Urging Poisoning & Paralyzing Of ICE Agents

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A nurse at Virginia Commonwealth University Health has been terminated after posting a series of videos urging sabotage against ICE agents, including injecting them with paralytic drugs and poisoning their food and drinks.

Yes, really.

The unhinged suggestions highlight the escalating threats faced by law enforcement amid leftist campaigns to obstruct deportations of criminal illegal aliens.

Meet Melinda, a healthcare worker at @VCUHealth. She posted a series of videos encouraging people to inject ICE agents with succinylocholine, a temporary paralysis drug, and spray poison on them. She also encourages woman to go on dates with agents and drug their food.

Any… pic.twitter.com/CMJN12GhOc

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) January 27, 2026

In videos exposed by Libs of TikTok, the nurse, identified as Melinda, detailed various “resistance tips” targeted at ICE personnel.

She advised medical providers to “grab some syringes with needles on the end have them full of saline or succinylcholine you know whatever,” adding that succinylcholine “is a temporary paralyzing agent. It will eventually wear off and there will be no way to detect it afterwards.”

“So, if you see them struggling to breathe, you can definitely inject that into one of their muscles or veins and walk away and there will be no way to prove it,” she stated.

BREAKING: Nurse at @VCUHealth who called to poison and drug ICE agents has been FIRED following our report https://t.co/HWFfTHJYZf pic.twitter.com/fWzoFo2ZfD

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) January 28, 2026

In another clip, she suggested harvesting poison ivy or oak, mixing it with water, and using a water gun to fire it in the faces of agents.

For single women, she proposed going on dates via apps like Tinder or Hinge to “find these guys, they’re around,” and to bring poison with them on dates, then “put it in their drinks, get them sick.”

She claimed, “You know, nobody’s going to die, just enough to incapacitate them, get off the street for the next day,” calling the tactic “easily deniable.”

She also urged targeting agents’ food sources: “Let’s get them where they eat… Where’s the hotel where they eat? Who makes that breakfast? Let’s find them you know let’s make their lives fucking miserable.”

Additional ideas included making living conditions bad, such as hiding “dead fish somewhere in the room,” and to “just stay toxic.”

Following the videos going viral, VCU Health launched an investigation and confirmed in a statement: “Following an investigation, the individual involved in the social media videos is no longer employed by VCU Health. In addition, VCU Health has fulfilled its reporting requirements under Virginia state law.”

According to reports, the matter has been referred to authorities, with potential legal consequences for the former employee.

What kind of deranged lunatic has these ideas and then goes ahead and makes a video incriminating themselves? 

The development comes as ICE faces a surge in harassment from radical activists opposed to the Trump administration’s mass deportation efforts.

As we earlier highlighted, DHS recently released audio of deranged individuals leaving threatening voicemails wishing death on agents’ families. 

 

The culprits stole the personal data of agents by running number plates and then attempted to call them, before leaving the sickening recordings.

Again, this highlights how these mentally unwell morons don’t care about, or more likely haven’t even got the foresight to comprehend that they are incriminating themselves.

DHS has vowed to track down such agitators, with Border Czar Tom Homan establishing databases to expose harassers to their employers.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 16:25

Microsoft Tumbles After Cloud Growth Slows, CapEx Soars

With all eyes firmly focused on CapEx numbers to keep the AI-expansion narrative alive, Microsoft beat expectations on top- and bottom-line, and operating income, but a bigger than expected CapEx.

“We are only at the beginning phases of AI diffusion and already Microsoft has built an AI business that is larger than some of our biggest franchises," said Satya Nadella, chairman and chief executive officer of Microsoft.

“We are pushing the frontier across our entire AI stack to drive new value for our customers and partners.”

Microsoft posted adjusted earnings of $4.14 a share on revenue of $81.3 billion (better than expected earnings of $3.91 a share and revenue of $80.3 billion), beating across every segment:

• Intelligent Cloud revenue $32.91 billion, estimate $32.39 billion

• Azure and other cloud services revenue Ex-FX +38%, estimate +38%

• Productivity and Business Processes revenue $34.12 billion, estimate $33.45 billion

• More Personal Computing revenue $14.25 billion, estimate $14.33 billion

“Microsoft Cloud revenue crossed $50 billion this quarter, reflecting the strong demand for our portfolio of services,” said Amy Hood, executive vice president and chief financial officer of Microsoft.

“We exceeded expectations across revenue, operating income, and earnings per share.”

While Azure revenue rose 39% (beating stimates of 37.8%), it was down slightly from the first-quarter's 40% growth rate.

Additionally, Cloud gross margin also fell YoY to 67%.

Operating income beat expectations at $38.28 billion (versus a consensus estimate of $36.55 billion)

But Capital Expenditures were considerably higher than expected at $29.99 billion (versus consensus estimate of $23.78 billion).

• Capital expenditures including assets acquired under finance leases were $37.5 billion, up 66% to support customer demand for our cloud and Al offerings. Roughly two-thirds of capital expenditures were for short-lived assets, primarily GPUs and CPUs, which support Azure platform demand, growing first-party applications and Al solutions, accelerating research and development by our product teams, as well as continued replacement for end-of-life server and networking equipment.

• The remainder of capital expenditures were for long-lived assets which will support monetization over the next 15-year period and beyond. Finance leases, which are primarily for large datacenter sites, were $6.7B and are recognized at the time of lease commencement.

• Cash paid for property and equipment was $29.9 billion, up 89%, lower than capital expenditures primarily due to finance leases

Additionally, following the renegotiation of their deal, Microsoft says net gains from OpenAI investments totaled $7.6B, but more notably, 45% of Commercial Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) are due to OpenAI commitments.

"Commercial remaining performance obligations...increased to $625B, up 110% Y/Y, with a weighted average duration of ~2.5 years," said CFO Hoods.

"Roughly 25% will be recognized in revenue in the next 12 months, up 39% Y/Y. The remaining portion recognized beyond the next 12 months increased 156% Y/Y. ~45% of our commercial RPO balance is from OpenAI. The significant remaining balance grew 28% Y/Y and reflects ongoing broad customer demand across the portfolio."

How's that for concentration?

The OpenAI investment lifted per-share earnings by $1.02.

"In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, net income and diluted earnings per share were impacted by net gains from investments in OpenAI, which resulted in an increase in net income and diluted earnings per share of $7.6 billion and $1.02, respectively."

The result of all this was selling pressure hitting MSFT (down over 8% after hours)...

It's unclear exactly what is triggering the selling pressure, but could it be that too much CapEx is now bad news not good news? Or is that Azure growth slowed?

After this, investors will want a guide that either explicitly shows Azure accelerating or strongly suggests it, despite the fact that the Street  has growth decelerating about -150 bps sequentially. As such, investors believe that the guide needs to be ‘approximately’ +38% Y/Y – perhaps a point higher.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 16:16

Amazon Exits Experimental Grocery Stores, Will Focus On Whole Foods, 'Supercenters'

Amazon is shutting down its Amazon Go and Amazon Fresh grocery stores, marking a significant retrenchment from its most ambitious efforts to reinvent brick-and-mortar food retail. The move reflects the company’s conclusion that, despite years of experimentation, it has not yet found a physical grocery model that can scale profitably under the Amazon brand.

Photo: Ted S. Warren, AP

According to the company, Amazon Go and Amazon Fresh locations will all be shuttered by Feb. 1, with the exception of California locations which will remain open longer to comply with state requirements. Some of the shuttered locations will be converted into Whole Foods Market stores, underscoring where Amazon now sees durable value in physical grocery retail.

In short, Amazon is closing physical stores, but you can still order Amazon Fresh online for same-day delivery if they serve your address. 

“While we’ve seen encouraging signals in our Amazon-branded physical grocery stores, we haven’t yet created a truly distinctive customer experience with the right economic model needed for large-scale expansion,” Amazon's PR zoomers vomited forth in a blog post announcing the decision.

At the time of the announcement, Amazon operated 57 Amazon Fresh stores and 15 Amazon Go locations. The closures mark a sharp contrast with the performance of Whole Foods Market, which Amazon acquired in 2017. Since the acquisition, Whole Foods has delivered more than 40% sales growth and expanded to over 550 locations. Amazon said it plans to open more than 100 additional Whole Foods stores in the coming years.

The retreat does not signal an exit from groceries. Instead, Amazon is consolidating around areas where it believes it holds a structural advantage; online ordering, rapid delivery, and logistics at scale. The company said customers will continue to be able to shop Amazon Fresh online, with grocery delivery now available in roughly 5,000 U.S. cities and towns, including thousands with same-day delivery of produce and perishables alongside household staples. Amazon said it plans to expand same-day fresh grocery delivery further this year, citing strong customer feedback.

Amazon’s physical grocery experiments were closely watched as a test of whether technology could meaningfully reshape a notoriously low-margin business. Amazon Go stores, which debuted in Seattle in 2018, eliminated traditional checkout lines by using cameras and sensors to automatically charge customers as they left the store. Amazon Fresh stores, launched in 2020, combined national brands, fresh food and technology-enabled shopping features in a more conventional supermarket format.

While customers responded positively to some of these innovations, Amazon acknowledged that the stores did not yet deliver a compelling economic model. Grocery retail remains highly sensitive to real estate costs, labor, pricing pressure and operational complexity - factors that even Amazon’s technology could not easily overcome.

Importantly, Amazon is not abandoning the technology developed for these stores. The company said its Amazon Go locations served as “innovation hubs” for its “just walk out” checkout system, which is now deployed in more than 360 third-party locations across five countries. Amazon is also expanding the technology internally, with more than 40 North American fulfillment centers using it in employee breakrooms to speed food purchases, with additional locations planned.

At the same time, Amazon said it will continue to test new physical formats. The company revealed plans for a “new supercenter” concept that would allow customers to shop fresh groceries, household essentials and general merchandise in a single location, though it did not provide details on timing or scale. It is also piloting a new “Amazon Grocery” format embedded within select Whole Foods stores, allowing customers to shop for Amazon household essentials alongside traditional grocery items.

h/t Capital.news

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 15:45

Tesla Earnings Preview: Robotaxis, Optimus, Energy All In Focus Heading Into 2026

Tesla is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes today, and while the headline numbers will matter, most investors are far more focused on what Elon Musk says about the company’s future.

The earnings call that follows the report is expected to center on artificial intelligence, self-driving technology, robotaxis, and Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus. With the company’s traditional car business under pressure, this quarter is shaping up to be less about past performance and more about whether Tesla can convince Wall Street that its next chapter is still on track.

Wall Street consensus points to earnings of about 45 cents per share on roughly $25 billion in revenue, down from last year. Operating income is expected to be just over $1 billion, and gross margins are likely to hover near 17%, reflecting ongoing pricing pressure. Free cash flow is forecast to come in around $1.5 billion, while capital spending remains elevated as Tesla continues investing in factories, AI infrastructure, and new products. 

The automotive business remains Tesla’s biggest challenge. Vehicle deliveries fell sharply in the fourth quarter, and the loss of key tax credits, rising competition, and heavier use of discounts have all weighed on demand and margins. Analysts are closely watching automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, as a measure of Tesla’s true pricing power. Many expect it to come in near 14% to 15%, down from recent quarters. This reflects a reality that Tesla is no longer operating in a wide-open EV market and must now fight harder for every sale.

Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles in Q4 2025, below Wall Street’s expectation of roughly 426,000 deliveries, according to CNBC and the company. Production totaled 434,358 vehicles. For the full year, Tesla delivered 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, down 9% from 2024 and marking the second consecutive annual decline in deliveries.

That internal survey of 20 analysts projected 422,850 deliveries for the quarter, far below the broader public consensus at the time, which ranged from roughly 440,000 to 450,000 vehicles. Even Tesla’s lowered benchmark proved too high.

Fourth-quarter deliveries declined 16% from a year earlier, when Tesla delivered 495,570 vehicles. Production fell 5.5% from the 459,445 vehicles the company built in the same period last year.

In contrast, Tesla’s energy division is widely expected to be a bright spot. The company continues to see strong demand for its Megapack battery systems, especially from data centers and AI companies building out massive computing infrastructure. Tesla deployed a record amount of energy storage during the quarter, and analysts expect revenue from the segment to approach $4 billion, up more than 20% from a year ago. Some analysts believe this business could become a steady, high-margin growth engine over time, helping offset weakness in car sales.

Robotics and artificial intelligence remain more speculative but are central to Tesla’s long-term story. Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot, is still largely in the prototype stage, but investors are eager to hear whether it is getting closer to real production.

Analysts want updates on manufacturing readiness, cost, and practical use cases inside Tesla’s factories. Elon Musk has said he expects robot sales to begin next year, but his history of aggressive timelines makes many on Wall Street cautious.

The biggest wild card, however, is robotaxis and full self-driving technology. Tesla has begun limited unsupervised rides in Austin, removing safety drivers in some vehicles, which Musk has called a major milestone. Analysts are watching closely to see how quickly Tesla can expand this service to other cities and whether regulators will allow broader use. 

Several analysts have laid out their views ahead of the report. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, one of Tesla’s biggest supporters, believes autonomous driving could give Tesla dominant market share over the next decade and has argued that robotaxis could become a massive profit driver.

In contrast, Oppenheimer has warned that Tesla’s AI and robotics progress has been slower than expected and that delays could hurt future earnings. Shay Boloor of Futurum Equities has summarized the debate by saying investors now see Tesla less as a car company and more as an “AI platform with physical products,” meaning expectations are extremely high.

Musk himself has added to the sense of anticipation in recent weeks.

He has said that Tesla’s robotaxis in Austin are operating without in-car safety monitors, that Full Self-Driving could soon receive approval in Europe and China, and that Optimus robots could be sold to consumers within the next couple of years. He has also spoken about his various companies “converging” over time, especially with AI, energy, and robotics overlapping more closely. These comments have energized supporters but also raised the bar for what Tesla needs to deliver.

Investors will soon know whether Tesla’s core business is stabilizing, whether energy can keep growing at its current pace, and whether robotaxis and robots are moving from vision to execution. If management provides clear timelines and concrete progress, the market may be willing to look past a weak quarter.

If the discussion stays vague or ambitious promises slip again, doubts about Tesla’s long-term story could deepen. Either way, the answers are only hours away.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 15:30

Despite Two Dovish Dissents, Fed Holds Rates As Expected; Upgrades Growth, Lowers Labor Risks

Tl; dr: Despite two dovish dissents, The Fed is likely on an “extended pause” noting strong activity data and signs of stabilization in the labor market. 

However, Goldman "expects easing to resume later in the year as a moderation in inflation allows for two further ‘normalization’ cuts to take rates back to levels seen by the median FOMC member as neutral.”

Christopher Hodge, chief US economist at Natixis, says at the end of the day here the Fed is “on hold until data prompts a move.” 

"We have now entered a new phase of policymaking where the Fed views the risks to both parts of its dual mandate are in balance. It will be incumbent on the data to move the Fed from this perch – the days of insurance cuts to slowly approach neutral are likely over."

Waller's odds of being the next Fed Chair went up after his dovish dissent.

*  *  *

Since the last FOMC meeting on Dec 10th (which resulted in a dovish-er than expected 25bps rate cut and statement), US macro data has surprised significantly to the upside...

Source: Bloomberg

...prompting a plunge in the market's Fed rate-cut expectations (now below 2x 25bps cuts for the year)...

Source: Bloomberg

The market is now more only modestly more dovish than The Fed's dots for 2026 (but the market is also not pricing in any more moves from The Fed after that)...

Source: Bloomberg

All of which has sent the dollar tumbling and gold exploding higher (while stocks rallied and bonds sold off)...

Source: Bloomberg

Heading into today's FOMC statement (and presser), a dramatically wide consensus expects a "boring" and "uneventful" dovish hold with an upgrade to growth, and less downside risk to employment.

...and that's EXACTLY what we got.

No change in rates...

• Federal Open Market Committee votes 10-2 to leave its benchmark interest rate in a target range of 3.5%-3.75%

• Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran voted against the decision in favor of lowering rates by a quarter-point

Which prompted a jump in the odds of Waller getting The Fed Chair job...

Source: Polymarket

Upgrade for growth:

• Fed upgrades view of economy to say available indicators suggest economic activity “has been expanding at a solid pace,”

Inflation-watch:

• Fed repeats inflation “remains somewhat elevated”

Labor market optimism:

• Fed removes language from statement that had noted “downside risks to employment rose in recent months”

• Fed tweaks description of the labor market, noting “job gains have remained low” and the jobless rate has “shown some signs of stabilization”

In terms of market reaction, it’s a nothing burger so far as most expect.

Read the full redline of the FOMC Statement below:

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 15:15

FBI Raids 'Ground Zero' Fulton County Election Office In 2020 Voter Fraud Probe

The FBI has raided a Fulton County, Georgia election hub that was 'ground zero' for voter fraud concerns in the 2020 election, Fox News reports.

Agents could be seen entering the Fulton County Election Hub and Operation Center, a new facility which opened in 2023 - and was designed to streamline their election process (we're sure!). 

According to the report, it was not immediately clear what the FBI agents were investigating, just that it's related to the 2020 US election.  

In December, news broke that tabulation tapes in Fulton County were not signed, affecting 315,000 votes. After Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger tried to reassure voters that "Georgia has the most secure elections in the country," Republicans questioned him...

“If only Georgia had an official responsible for preventing clerical errors that undermine election integrity. Is there anyone in Georgia who has that job, Brad?” said Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who is running for governor. 

US Rep. Mike Collinns, who is running for Senate, said he was "tired of empty words from weak leaders," adding "Turns out over 300,000 early votes in the 2020 election were illegally certified but still included in the final results."

Earlier this month, President Donald Trump sought a $6.26 million reimbursement for legal fees stemming from his now-dismissed election interference case. 

Breaking news, check back for more updates...

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 13:15

Another East Coast Storm Brewing After Widespread Power Outages

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Another winter storm system may hit the East Coast this weekend, just days after a major storm brought widespread power outages due to ice and snow across a broad swath of the eastern United States.

A street during a winter storm in New York City on Jan. 25, 2026. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

“Forecasts are being monitored for increasing potential of another significant winter storm to impact the eastern United States this coming weekend,” the National Weather Service (NWS) said on Jan. 27.

The NWS added that “well below normal temperatures” will continue for the eastern part of the United States for this week, predicting yet “another blast of arctic air” that will spread from the Plains states to the East Coast, including the South, on Friday and Saturday. Record low temperatures are to be expected, including in Florida.

At least 30 people have died due to the storm and cold, authorities in multiple states confirmed as of Monday evening. In New York City, at least five people were found dead outside amid freezing temperatures, with causes under investigation but possibly attributed to hypothermia, Mayor Zohran Mamdani said.

Louisiana officials said two men died of hypothermia in Caddo Parish, while two teenagers perished in sledding accidents in Arkansas and Texas. In Emporia, Kansas, a K-9 police team found a schoolteacher dead, covered in snow.

More than 500,000 people were without power, mostly across the southern United States, according to a Tuesday morning update from tracking website Poweroutage.us.

Tennessee had 170,000 outages, while Mississippi reported 140,000 and Louisiana 99,000 due to an icy snowstorm that hit the region this past weekend, the site shows.

Other states with thousands of outages include Texas, Kentucky, Georgia, and South Carolina.

The United States had more than 12,000 flight delays or cancellations nationwide on Monday, according to flight tracker Flightaware.com. As of Tuesday morning, roughly 1,700 cancellations across the country and another 2,600 delays were reported.

New York City had its snowiest day in years, with 8 to 15 inches of snow. Although public schools shut down, roughly 500,000 students were told to log in for online lessons on Monday. The nation’s largest public school system stripped away snow days after remote learning gained traction during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Northern Mississippi and parts of Tennessee suffered widespread damage to power infrastructure, with areas such as New Albany, Mississippi, facing one week without power. Mississippi deployed 200,000 gallons of ice-melting chemicals on roads, a state record.

Robyn Tannehill, mayor of Oxford, Mississippi, described a catastrophic situation in her city in a social media post.

“It looks like a tornado went down every street,” she wrote on Facebook on Jan. 25. “There is no safe means of travel on the roads right now.”

The mayor added that the city is unable to transport students at the University of Mississippi, known as Ole Miss, who live off-campus or reside in shelters.

“We begged people to prepare and I am so sorry for those who didn’t but it is impossible for us to get to everyone in these conditions as much as we wish we could,” Tannehill wrote. “We’re going to wake up and do it again tomorrow. And the next day. And the next day.”

The Associated Press and Kimberly Hayek contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 12:45

Iran Executes Suspected Israeli Spy In High-Stakes Act Of Defiance

After stern warnings from President Trump, Iran has made clear it is not executing any protesters in the wake of the raging demonstrations and deadly unrest across Iranian cities which took place and grabbed world headlines earlier this month.

Trump had earlier claimed that Iran was going to execute 800, a figure that Iranian officials immediately rejected and scoffed at. Indeed it's unclear where the 800 number came from, and was probably floated by one of the anti-Tehran opposition groups based in Washington or Europe.

All of this back-and-forth aside, Tehran has made clear it will proceed with carrying out existent death row cases, especially related to the June 12-day war with Israel, during which time its security services rounded up dozens or possibly hundreds of Iranians alleged to be cooperating with Mossad or other foreign intelligence as assets.

source: EPA

So far some dozen people have been executed after being charged with espionage, connected to the events of last summer as well as its lead-up, and another one happened Wednesday, per international press reports and Iran state media:

Iran on Wednesday executed a man arrested in April 2025 on charges of spying for Israel's espionage agency Mossad, the judiciary said.

Hamidreza Sabet Esmailpour, who had been convicted of passing information to a Mossad agent, was hanged at dawn, the judiciary's Mizan news agency said.

Some in Washington and Tel Aviv might see this as a direct challenge to Trump, at a moment he has boasted of a "beautiful armada" parked in regional waters. He's also freshly warned Iran that "time is running out."

Still, Iran's judiciary proceeded, confirming Wednesday in a statement: "Hamidreza Sabet Esmaeilipour who was arrested on 29 April 2025, was hanged for the crime of espionage and intelligence cooperation in favor of a hostile intelligence service (Mossad) through… the transfer of classified documents and information, after the verdict was confirmed by the Supreme Court and through legal procedures."

The Islamic Republic likes to set examples, and so tends to widely publicize hangings like this, which is another reason why the prior referenced Trump claims of 800 set to be executed seems wildly exaggerated if not fabricated out of thin air.

Public executions have been a reality in Iran going all the way back to the Islamic Revolution of 1979, in which time (and since) people could be seen hanging from cranes in the capital city.

Recently, it has become clear that Israel was engaged in a massive spying and espionage campaign to pave the way for its 'Operation Rising Lion' - which is intent on destroying Iran's nuclear energy program, and possibly even accomplishing regime change. Some Israeli officials have actually publicly boasted of this.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 11:25

Fearing US Reprisals, Mexico Halts Oil Shipment To Cuba

Via The Libertarian Institute

Mexico’s state oil company, Pemex, has backed out of a planned oil shipment to Cuba, the country's president appeared to confirm. The move comes after President Donald Trump insisted that "zero" oil would be sent to the island, and follows reports that Washington plans regime change there by the end of the year.

Speaking during her daily press conference on Tuesday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum did not deny earlier reports about the canceled Pemex shipment, which was originally scheduled for sometime in January.

Eyepix Group/Shutterstock

"It is a sovereign decision, and it is made at the time deemed necessary," she said when asked about the reports, stressing that such shipments are determined by the state oil firm.

Reuters reported last week that the Mexican government was reviewing whether to continue sending oil to Cuba, fearing potential reprisals from the United States.

Washington has maintained a full trade embargo on the island for decades, and imposed a blockade on Venezuelan oil bound for Cuba late last year, soon after US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over dubious drug charges.

While that left Mexico as Cuba’s main petroleum supplier – accounting for some 44% of its crude imports, per UPI – President Trump insisted that "zero" money or oil would be sent to the island earlier this month, forcing Mexico to reevaluate its trade policy.

Asked whether her country could play a role mediating discussions between Washington and Havana, Sheinbaum said such an initiative could only proceed if it were requested by both sides, but added that Mexico would continue to promote dialogue.

Those efforts may be insufficient, however, as Washington is now reportedly seeking to execute regime change in Cuba by the end of the year, according to recent reporting by the Wall Street Journal.

The paper said last week that US officials were seeking "Cuban government insiders who can help cut a deal to push out the Communist regime" in the coming months, hoping to use Maduro’s kidnapping as a "blueprint" to topple the Cuban state.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 11:05

WTI Holds Gains After Winter Storm Sparks Biggest Total Inventory Draw Since October

Oil prices hit a fresh four-month high this morning after President Trump threatened another attack on Iran, urging Tehran to negotiate a nuclear deal.

“Hopefully Iran will quickly ‘Come to the Table’ and negotiate a fair and equitable deal,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social network, adding that “the next attack will be far worse!” than the one that took place last year.

Prices pared gains somewhat after Iran’s mission to the UN repeated in a post on X that it stands ready for dialogue based on mutual respect and interests, but said it will “defend itself and respond like never before,” to US aggression.

API

• Crude -247k

• Cushing -92k

• Gasoline -415k

• Distillates +2.01mm

DOE

• Crude -2.295mm (+1.95mm exp)

• Cushing -278k

• Gasoline +223k

• Distillates +329k

Total crude and fuel stockpiles fell last week for the first time since early December led by a surprise crude draw (bigger than the small one reported by API)...

Source: Bloomberg

Bloomberg reports that the 6 million barrel draw (which was the biggest since October) was led by a decline in crude inventories and also the biggest drop in propane inventories since early last year ahead of the big freeze. 

Crude production fell to 13.7 million barrels a day last week, down by 36,000 barrels a day from the previous week. The drop may reflect the initial impact of the winter storm that hit the US in recent days and came as the number of rigs drilling for oil edged higher for a second week, with 1 unit put into operation last week, according to Baker Hughes.

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is holding on to early gains after the surprise draw...

Finally, circling back to the start, the potential risk to Iranian supplies has injected a premium into oil prices and led futures to start the year on a strong footing, up more than 10% this month, despite forecasts for a glut. That has also kept the cost of bullish options high relative to bearish ones.

“Market sentiment appears to be gradually turning more positive, as the bearish oversupply narrative so prevalent in the second half of 2025 weakens,” Standard Chartered analysts including Emily Ashford wrote in a note.

“We envisage an uptick in volatility and increasing focus on both supply and demand risks.”

The prompt spread for both oil benchmarks — the difference between their two nearest contracts — has widened in a bullish backwardation structure over the course of this month, indicating tighter supply. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 10:42

Amazon Cuts 16,000 Jobs As Tech Layoffs Accelerate In 2026

Amazon is laying off about 16,000 more employees as it works to cut bureaucracy and respond to growing competition from AI.

The move follows October’s 14,000 job cuts and the closure of its gaming unit. The company also announced it will shut down its Amazon-branded grocery and cashierless stores.

A note on the company's website on Wednesday said: "I want to let you know that we're making additional organizational changes across Amazon that will impact some of our teammates. I recognize this is difficult news, which is why I’m sharing what’s happening and why."

"As I shared in October, we've been working to strengthen our organization by reducing layers, increasing ownership, and removing bureaucracy. While many teams finalized their organizational changes in October, other teams did not complete that work until now."

It continued: "The reductions we are making today will impact approximately 16,000 roles across Amazon, and we're again working hard to support everyone whose role is impacted. That starts with offering most US-based employees 90 days to look for a new role internally (timing will vary internationally based on local and country level requirements)."

"While we’re making these changes, we’ll also continue hiring and investing in strategic areas and functions that are critical to our future. We’re still in the early stages of building every one of our businesses and there’s significant opportunity ahead," it concludes.

Amazon’s layoffs follow other major tech cuts early in 2026, including Autodesk’s plan to eliminate about 1,000 roles (~7% of its workforce) amid a restructuring that includes shifting investment toward AI and cloud, and Pinterest’s decision to cut nearly 15% of employees as it reallocates resources toward AI initiatives; layoffs trackers also show thousands of tech workers have already been affected by job reductions across dozens of firms so far this year.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 10:30

USD Pops, Yen Drops As TsySec Bessent Says "Absolutely Not Intervening"

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC Sara Eisen this morning that "the US always has a strong dollar policy".

This statement comes after President Trump's apparent 'comfort' last night with the dollar declining...

When asked if he was worried about losses in the dollar, Trump told reporters in Iowa on Tuesday: “No, I think it’s great.”

Bessent then dropped two more tapebombs...

While stating that "WE DON'T COMMENT ON INTERVENTION SPECULATION"...

Bessent then confirmed that "US IS 'ABSOLUTELY NOT' INTERVENING IN DOLLAR-YEN NOW"

This prompted yen weakness, retracing some of the post 'rate check' rally...

...and dollar strength...

This move comes minutes after Goldman Sachs Delta-One desk head warned: Near-term, feels dangerous to press dollar downside given how extreme the moves have been.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 10:18

Trump Unveils Mercantilism 101

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

The de-Dollarisation meme rolled on yesterday as the Bloomberg Dollar spot index sank to its lowest reading since February of 2022. The fall became precipitous after Donald Trump was given an opportunity by journalists to talk up the Dollar, but instead replied “no, I think it’s great” when asked whether he was concerned about its recent drop. It would seem that there is no rage against the dying of the strong Dollar from the President.

Trump’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had repeatedly assured financial markets last year that the administration still supports the strong Dollar policy. Trump himself has been a little more circumspect over the years, and implied yesterday that a weaker Dollar was good for US trade competitiveness. “Look at the business we are doing. The Dollar’s doing great.” Trump also pointed out that China and Japan have historically intervened to weaken their own currencies – thereby boosting trade competitiveness at the expense of trading partners. This is Mercantilism 101, as regular readers of this Daily would have been aware of for years.

On Monday we wrote about the Triffin Dilemma, and particularly the necessity of reserve currency issuers running trade deficits. The Triffin Dilemma also describes why the global reserve currency might be artificially strong as there is always a bid to hold it as a reserve asset and it is always demanded by other countries to conduct trade – even trade that does not involve the country issuing the reserve currency.

Along with the US Navy’s policing of global sea lanes at no cost to other countries (who benefit from absence of piracy, etc), the provision of the Dollar as a global medium of exchange is one of two public goods that Council of Economic Advisors Chair and now Fed Governor Stephen Miran (and author of the Mar-A-Lago accord) argues the US provides to other countries an substantial cost to itself. Under that framing, if the Dollar can be weakened without losing its status as the reserve currency, the Trump administration may consider that a welcome development.

Equity markets certainly considered it a welcome development. The S&P500 gained 0.41% yesterday and the NASDAQ was up 0.91%, but the Dow Jones finished well in the red. US equities are in the black for the year-to-date, and are performing similarly to European stocks, but the standout markets for the year so far appear to be in South America, where US intervention in Venezuela under the revamped Monroe Doctrine and a shift toward pro-US right wing government seems to be helping market sentiment. Indices in Peru, Chile, Colombia and Brazil are all well into double-digit growth YTD. Year-to-date growth in Mexican and Argentinian indices remains in the single-digits, but is still outperforming Asian, European and US markets.

Another excuse to sell Dollars was provided by the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence report, which showed overall confidence falling to the lowest levels since 2014 (i.e. lower than during the pandemic) and undershooting the estimate of every analyst on the Bloomberg survey. The present conditions index fell to a five year low and the expectations index fell 9.5 points to 65.1 – its lowest reading since the immediate aftermath of Liberation Day and well below levels typically consistent with impending recession!

The weak confidence reading provides an interesting backdrop for today’s FOMC rate decision. There is virtually no chance of a change in the Fed Funds rate today, but Fed-dated OIS has slithered a little closer to a cut being fully priced for June and two more cuts fully priced for the year. The Conference Board report’s emphasis of labor market conditions may be of particular interest as last week’s more consumer spending-oriented University of Michigan confidence index rose to even stronger levels while inflation expectations fell. Personal spending reported earlier in the week was also reasonably strong.

Of course, a weaker US Dollar is providing an endogenous easing in financial conditions that – taken together with core PCE running at 2.8% YoY and the apparent feud between the FOMC and the White House – may cause the Fed to resist further monetary easing. Jerome Powell seemingly made it clear in his sensational press conference following the Department of Justice’s issuance of grand jury subpoenas that he will not go gently into that good night.

There are others raging against the dying of the light, too. Mark Carney is the most Davos of Davos men and in his well-publicized speech pronouncing the death of the liberal world order he unpacked what he thought that would mean for global prosperity: “a world of fortresses will be poorer, more fragile and less sustainable... Allies will diversify to hedge against uncertainty... They’ll buy insurance... to rebuild sovereignty.” He then said that “...the cost of strategic autonomy can be shared. Collective investments in resilience are cheaper than everyone building their own.”

Herein lies the rub, Carney recognises that strategic autonomy is desirable, but then immediately makes the mistake of trying to achieve strategic autonomy through multilateral coordination. That is a re-run of liberal globalism, but on a smaller scale. True strategic autonomy would logically require greater autonomy, not continued integration. To suggest otherwise is to forget Lord Palmerston’s dictum “we have no permanent friends, only permanent interests.”

The European Union is similarly raging against the change in the world order. The EU just pushed back against the protectionism trend by announcing that it has concluded “the mother of all trade deals” with India, forming what Ursula von der Leyen calls a free trade zone of 2 billion people. This follows a similar deal with the South American Mercosur bloc after years of drawn out negotiations. Of course, the India deal isn’t actually for “free” trade, but for preferential trade. Tariffs will be eliminated or cut on 96% of EU exports to India, while the EU will do the same for 99% of India’s exports to the EU.

Europe will be granted improved market access for many agricultural products, but India’s dairy sector will see no reduction in protection. Similarly, European beef and poultry producers will remain shielded by protectionist measures and Europe’s strict regulatory regime may pose hurdles for Indian products that, in theory, are now granted greater access to the European market but may be waylaid by Europe’s powerful bureaucracy.

Alongside the trade deal, Europe and India have signed a new pact for security and defense partnership. India’s defense minister on Tuesday said that India’s defence industry can play a meaningful role in the EU’s ReArm Initiative and that the partnership will “become a force multiplier by integrating supply chains for building trusted defence ecosystems”.

This talk of integrating supply chains and trusted defense ecosystems sounds a lot like the arrangement the EU has (had?) with the United States. It also sounds a lot like Mark Carney’s prescription of integration on a somewhat-less-than-global scale. What it does not sound like is strategic autonomy – or supply chain sovereignty, and it is likely to cause some consternation in Paris, where Emmanuel Macron has been vocal about the need for Europe to prioritize indigenous industry in arms procurement.

Perhaps Europe still isn’t ready to admit that the light of the liberal international order really is dying.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 10:15

The post All in On California’s Big Tax on Billionaires appeared first on CEPR.

US Stocks Set To Open At Record High On Blowout Tech Earnings Ahead Of Fed, Mag 7

US equity futures are rallying into record territory, led by Tech as overnight earnings (ASML, SK Hynix, STX, TXN) boost the group and help fuel the AI trade, perhaps pausing the broadening theme. As of 8:00am ET S&P futures are up 0.2% pointing to a sixth-straight advance that would mark the longest winning run in almost seven months and will push the S&P 500 cash index above the 7,000 mark for the first time when US markets open; Nasdaq futures surge 0.8, putting the index within touching distance of its October record, with Mag 7s and Semis bid in premarket trading, led by AMD (+2.3%), AVGO (+1.4%), and NVDA (+1.6%). Cyclicals are leading Defensives as Fins/Indu/Mats outperform and Staples lag. Bond yields are flat while the dollar advanced 0.2%, snapping a four-day slide that left the currency at its lowest level in nearly four years. Commodities are mixed: gold +1.7% and silver +0.4% to new record highs, as the Energy complex is under pressure (natgas -8%) with Ags maintaining a bid. Today’s macro focus is on the Fed unchanged announcement (full preview here) with the market looking to see if the Fed identifies growth or inflation as the biggest risk but with no moves expected and three Mag7 earnings releases (full preview here).

In premarket trading, semiconductor, memory and storage stocks rally after positive results from ASML, Seagate and Texas Instruments. ASML ADRs are up 5% after the company reported orders well beyond investor expectations, showing a surge in AI computing workloads has flowed through to higher demand for its chipmaking tools. Seagate (STX) is up 8% after the computer hardware and storage company’s second-quarter results beat expectations and it gave a positive outlook. Analysts note that results were boosted by strong gross and operating margins. Texas Instruments (TXN) gains 7% after the chipmaker gave an outlook that is seen as positive, signaling improved demand. Analysts highlight strength in the industrial and data center end markets. Magnificent Seven stocks are mostly higher (Nvidia +1.9%, Alphabet +0.4%, Amazon +0.3%, Meta -0.2%, Tesla +0.2%, Microsoft +0.2%, Apple -0.1%

• AT&T Inc. (T) rises 3% after reporting fourth-quarter profit and revenue that beat analysts’ estimates, buoyed by what it described as the best broadband subscriber growth in a decade.
• Brinker (EAT) rises 5% after the parent of Chili’s and Maggiano’s restaurants reported second-quarter results that topped Street expectations. The beat was led by its Chili’s chain and the company also boosted its annual forecasts.
• C3.ai (AI) gains 15% after The Information reported that the AI company is in talks to merge with Automation Anywhere.
• Corning (GLW) falls 3% after the communications equipment company reported its fourth-quarter results and gave an outlook.
• Elevance Health (ELV) drops 6% after the health insurer gave an adjusted profit forecast for 2026 that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
• F5 Inc. (FFIV) jumps 8% after the cybersecurity company boosted its revenue forecast for the fiscal year.
• New Oriental Education ADRs (EDU) rises 6% after the Chinese education company’s second-quarter results beat Street estimates, and management boosted its annual net revenue forecast.
• Qorvo (QRVO) falls 10% after the semiconductor device company gave an outlook that was much weaker than expected.
• StandardAero (SARO) falls 5% as leading holders Carlyle and GIC offer 50 million shares in the aviation maintenance company.

In company news, Amazon is cutting about 16,000 roles across the company as part of ongoing organizational restructuring efforts, according to a statement.

Tech stocks are rallying around the world after blockbuster earnings from ASML and SK Hynix added fresh fuel to the artificial-intelligence trade while Microsoft, Meta and Tesla are due to report later (our preview here).  Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.8%, putting the index within touching distance of its October record.

ASML rose more than 5% in Amsterdam on fourth-quarter bookings that far exceeded estimates. Asian equities got a boost as SoftBank Group Corp. flagged talks to invest $30 billion in OpenAI. Relentless demand for AI memory fueled a large earnings beat for SK Hynix. LVMH’s sluggish sales weighed on luxury names in Europe.

“The tech sector is likely to lift markets further, so the rally isn’t over yet,” said Claudia Panseri, chief investment officer for France at UBS Wealth Management. “The Fed this evening will be an important clarification for investors, who are at the moment expecting two cuts this year.”

Today’s tech gains might put a pause on the rotation away from the sector. Amid the S&P’s advance to a record, a version of the index stripped of market-cap bias has outperformed, with materials, health care and consumer sectors supplanting tech at the forefront.

The upbeat mood in equity markets comes ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision, with investors expecting interest rates to remain on hold. With announcement of a nominee to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell in May pending and Governor Christopher Waller among the contenders, a focal point of the rate decision will be whether he dissents in favor of a rate cut US President is seeking; dissents by Governors Stephen Miran and Michelle Bowman are also expected (full preview here). 

With BlackRock executive Rick Rieder seen as the front-runner to become the next Fed chair, bond futures traders are increasing bets that he would favor a more accommodative US monetary policy. Rieder, the firm’s chief investment officer for global fixed income, argued in September for a larger half-point rate cut, rather than the quarter-point moves preferred by the Fed.

“The appointment of Rieder should be a market positive given his background,” wrote Mohit Kumar, chief strategist for Europe at Jefferies. “He is likely to be modestly more dovish than some of the other choices, though it is unlikely that he would rubber stamp Trump’s views.”

The dollar is rebounding against all major currencies following Tuesday’s sharp selloff, which extended as President Trump indicated he’s comfortable with the greenback’s recent decline.Donald Trump’s relaxed stance on the dollar is adding to speculation that the US currency may be entering a more prolonged period of weakness. Speaking to reporters in Iowa on Tuesday, Trump said the dollar’s slide was beneficial for US businesses, moving currency markets by appearing to endorse the greenback’s sharp decline.

“I don’t think it’s going to be that same kind of blanket dollar weakness that we saw last year, but I think there are certainly some pairs where that move does look quite appealing,” Lauren van Biljon, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, told Bloomberg TV.

Also due Wednesday are earnings from three of the Magnificent Seven heavyweights, Microsoft Corp., Tesla Inc. and Meta Platforms report after the close (our preview can be found here). Other companies reporting include Starbucks, Danaher, General Dynamics, GE Vernova and AT&T all out before the market open. IBM completes the notable companies to report after the close.

“So far, we’ve been pleasantly surprised by the earnings season in tech, with TSMC and ASML today,” said Karen Kharmandarian, chief investment officer of thematic equities at Mirova in Paris. “We’re still expecting capex to continue to grow substantially among the hyperscalers such as Google, Meta or Amazon, given the momentum in the AI space.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is down by 0.5% as blowout results from Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML are more than offset by declines for health care companies and for the luxury goods sector, the latter on disappointing numbers from LVMH. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• ASML rises as much as 7.5% to a record high in Amsterdam after reporting orders well beyond investor expectations, showing a surge in AI computing workloads has flowed through to higher demand for its chipmaking tools
• Nordnet gains as much as 6.1%, the most since April, after the Swedish retail trading platform and bank reported its latest earnings, which analysts described as a strong finish to 2025. Net commission income was a key driver of revenue
• Volvo shares rise as much as 3.2% after the Swedish firm said truck demand was improving in some markets and reported what analysts called a strong margin beat
• PSP Swiss Property shares gain as much as 3%, hitting their highest level in almost six years, after being upgraded by analysts at UBS, who argue the underperformance versus peers leaves it positioned as a “quality laggard”
• Paypoint shares gain as much as 14% after the payments company reported third-quarter results, with analysts at Panmure Liberum noting it remains on track to meet annual expectations despite a challenging environment
• Boohoo shares climb as much as 12% to a six-week high. The online fashion retailer said it expects FY26 adjusted EBITDA to be above previous guidance, citing improved momentum in its youth brands, including PLT, which it also decided not to sell
• Howden Joinery climbs as much as 2.3% after Deutsche Bank reiterated its buy rating on the kitchen seller, pointing to both near-term resilience and a substantial long-term growth trajectory
• LVMH shares fall 8.2%, the most since April, after the luxury group reported a wider-than-expected drop in fashion and leather goods organic sales for the fourth quarter. Analysts noted management’s limited forward guidance and comments on the uncertain short-term outlook
• Tele2 falls as much as 6.7%, the most since October, after the Swedish telecommunications firm reported its latest earnings. Analysts say the print shows strength, but EBITDAaL is on the weaker side and is likely to trigger some cuts to 2026 consensus estimates
• JSW shares fall as much as 5.9% in early trading in Warsaw after labor unions hardened their negotiating position, causing the suspension of talks over a rescue plan for the troubled coking coal producer
• Marston’s shares drop as much as 16%, the most since September 2020, to wipe out most of this month’s sharp gain after the pub operator reported muted sales

Earlier in the session, Asian equities are set for another record high, supported by a continued rally in technology shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 1.2%, with TSMC, SK Hynix and Tencent the biggest boosts to the gauge. Hong Kong led gains in the region amid inflows spurred by dollar weakness. Shares also rose in South Korea, helping the country’s market cap to overtake that of Germany. Meanwhile, Indonesian stocks tumbled after MSCI raised concerns about their investability and warned of a potential downgrade to frontier-market status.

“The shortage in supply in memory chips will continue to be a key catalyst for Asian memory makers,” said Ken Wong, an Asian equity portfolio specialist at Eastspring Investments Hong Kong. “We probably won’t see equilibrium on supply versus demand till early next year.”

In FX, the greenback is rebounding after hitting 2022 lows. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up by 0.3%, though mixed against G-10 peers.

In rates, treasuries were little changed ahead of the Fed rate decision with marginal long-end underperformance extending Tuesday’s late steepening move as the US dollar weakened further. US session features Federal Reserve rate decision, with swaps market priced for no change in the 3.5%-3.75% target range for federal funds. US front-end to belly yields are slightly richer on the day with longer maturities little changed, steepening 5s30s curve by about 1bp to 104bp, highest this week; 10-year, little changed near 4.24%, slightly lags bunds and gilts in the sector. Short-end bonds in Europe rallying as traders add to ECB rate cut bets.

In commodities, the blistering rally in precious metals continued as gold briefly topped $5,300 an ounce. Silver rose as much as 3.6% before pairing the advance.  Oil prices are choppy, Brent now falling and hovering a little above $67/barrel.

Today's US economic calendar is blank; FOMC announcement is at 2pm New York time, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30pm. Mag 7 earnings begin today with Microsoft, Meta and Tesla reporting after the close. 

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.8%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.5%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.4%
• DAX -0.2%
• CAC 40 -1%
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.25%
• VIX -0.1 points at 16.25
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.3% at 1178.01
• euro -0.6% at $1.1973
• WTI crude -0.2% at $62.24/barrel

Top Overnight News

• President Trump has said for months that he’s made up his mind about who should lead the Federal Reserve. But with each passing week without an announcement, some people close to the process aren’t sure any of his four finalists fully meet his requirements, a new chair who will pursue his demands for lower interest rates while still commanding enough credibility on Wall Street and from his colleagues to deliver them. WSJ
• Bond traders are betting on a dovish Fed shift as BlackRock’s Rick Rieder gains momentum to succeed Powell. His advocacy for more aggressive cuts have sparked increased trading activity in futures and options markets. BBG
• China has given the green light to three of its largest tech companies (ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent) to buy Nvidia's H200 artificial intelligence chips, four people familiar with the matter told Reuters, marking a shift in position as Beijing seeks to balance its AI needs against spurring domestic development. RTRS
• Some Bank of Japan board members expressed rising concern over the extent to which the yen’s depreciation is affecting price trends when they discussed policy in December before deciding at that meeting to raise the benchmark interest rate to the highest since 1995. BBG
• President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the United States and South Korea would work out a solution, in response to a query about his surprise threat a day earlier to step up tariffs to 25% on imports from the Asian ally. RTRS
• Saudi Arabia on Tuesday ruled out the use of its airspace and territory for a potential U.S. attack on Iran, complicating the Trump administration’s options in response to Tehran’s violent crackdown against Iranian protesters. WSJ
• Australia’s consumer price growth remained elevated in the final quarter of 2025, strongly signaling that the central bank will raise interest rates next week, or run the risk that inflation will get too hot. WSJ
• ECB’s Kocher says the central bank may need to cut rates if the strong euro started impacting inflation forecasts. FT
• Nasdaq futures got a boost as ASML’s orders smashed estimates on investments in AI infrastructure (ASML +6% premkt after reporting very strong 4Q25 orders for third quarter in a row with guide for 2026 above cons). The dollar steadied even after Donald Trump’s comments embracing a weaker greenback. Gold hit a new record. BBG
• Amazon is cutting about 16,000 roles to simplify its structure amid rising competition over AI. ASML also announced reductions amounting to about 4% of its staff. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• China has resumed the purchase of Canadian canola, Bloomberg reported citing sources; crushers in China have booked cargoes for loading in the next few months.
• South Korea's Presidential Adviser said they cannot rule out the possibility of the US mentioning a tariff hike again because of future disagreement over investment.
• EU and Vietnam in a joint statement are set to agree on a deeper connection on critical minerals and semiconductors.
• US President Trump said we will find a solution together with South Korea when asked about his announcement of raising tariffs against Korea.
• US President Trump said we're making a lot of good deals, Fox News interview.
• USTR's Greer said Chinese EVs won't enter the US from Canada without heavy levies, Fox Business reported; criticizes South Korean digital services legislation. The US is still imposing a 50% tariff rate on Indian goods. India has made a lot of progress weaning off Russian oil.

Central Banks

• US President Trump affirms that he will announce Fed chair pick soon.
• Minutes from BoJ's December 18th-19th meeting noted that members said it is appropriate to keep raising rates if the outlook is met, while a member said waiting another meeting in raising rates would be risky given impacts of FX on inflation. Most members said BoJ should not have a preset idea on rate hike pace and must scrutinise the economy, prices and markets in making decisions at each meeting. A few members said adjusting degree of monetary support will help stabilise markets and have merits to the economy. A member warned that divergence of real rates from equilibrium may impair long-term economic growth.
• ECB's Villeroy said the ECB are closely monitoring the euro and its effect on inflation, adds there is no target for the euro exchange rate.
• ECB's Cipollone said uncertainty may increase, hitting a recovery, and warned that global turbulence could hit the euro area, according to Bloomberg.
• ECB's Kocher said the central bank would need to act if the euro keeps gaining, according to FT.
• ANZ now sees the RBA raising rates by 25bps at its meeting next week, while it views this as a single insurance tightening and not the start of a series of hikes.
• New Zealand Finance Minister Willis said the RBNZ said we'll be easing off the accelerator at some point and will be guided by data.
• Thailand Central Bank Governor Vitai said the economy may grow 1.5%-1.7% in 2026, adds need to tackle structural issues, and that Thailand is facing US tariffs and structural problems.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed with an early positive bias seen following the mostly constructive handover from Wall Street, although some cautiousness began to seep through ahead of looming key risk events. ASX 200 was subdued with the index dragged lower by weakness in tech and consumer stocks, while the predominantly firmer-than-expected inflation data from Australia supports the case for a hike at next week's RBA meeting. Nikkei 225 underperformed from the open, following the recent currency strength spurred by intervention speculation and US President Trump's FX-related rhetoric. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were in the green with energy and telecom stocks among the index leaders in Hong Kong, while the mainland was kept afloat after developer China Vanke won creditor approval to extend another two CNY bonds and with a report noting that China approved the first batch of NVIDIA's H200 AI chips for import involving several hundred thousand H200 AI chips.

Top Asian News

• China is reportedly expected to move to more targeted measures across different sectors to reduce excessive competition and result in quality developments, Securities Times reported citing sources.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.4%) are generally trading with modest losses, aside from the AEX, which has been boosted by post-earnings strength in heavyweight ASML (+4.8%). The company beat across its headline metrics, provided a rosy outlook, and announced a EUR 12bln share buyback. European sectors hold a negative bias. Tech leads (boosted by ASML), whilst Consumer Products has been pressured by losses in LVMH (-7.1%) after its results disappointed.

Top European News

• UK PM Starmer delays decision on Chinese-built wind farm factory after security fears, according to The Times.
• Leaders of Dutch political parties reach an agreement on forming minority government.
• Maersk (MAERSKB DC) announces a stoppage in operations in the West Mediterranean terminals, adding that there's no clear sign on when operations are to resume.

FX

• DXY is attempting to claw back some of yesterday’s lost ground, after the index dropped from a high of 97.286 to a low of 95.551 amid the ongoing de-dollarisation theme. The data docket is quiet, so focus will be on the FOMC, which is expected to hold rates at 3.50–3.75%. Markets are focused less on the decision itself and more on any hints around how long the Fed remains patient before cutting, with around 45bps of easing priced by year-end.
• USD/JPY is consolidating after its recent slide below the 100 DMA (153.65) yesterday, which saw the pair trade within a 152.09–154.87 range. The pair currently trades around the mid-point of the 152.14–153.06 band at the time of writing.
• EUR/USD reached a high of 1.2082 on Tuesday (vs. a low of 1.1851), levels last seen around mid-2021, supported by broader USD weakness. The pair’s strength comes ahead of next week’s ECB meeting, where commentary will be watched for signs of concern that the ECB may miss its inflation target to the downside. The pair currently trades below 1.2000 within a 1.1970–1.2045 intraday range.
• Antipodeans are among the better performers. AUD/USD briefly rose following Australian CPI data, where the monthly December reading printed firmer than expected, while the headline quarterly figures matched estimates. However, the RBA-preferred trimmed mean inflation measure exceeded forecasts and remained above the RBA’s 2–3% inflation target. The data prompted banks such as ANZ, Westpac, CBA, and NAB to back a February rate hike from the RBA, with markets pricing a 70%+ probability of this outcome.
• South Korea's Presidential Adviser said that US Treasury Secretary Bessent's earlier comment on KRW reflects views that Korea's investment might become difficult if it raises anxiety in the FX market. Hopes that Korea's US investment bill will be passed in February and will communicate with the US to prevent tariffs from being raised. Alaska LNG project has not been discussed between both countries and will be reviewed under principle of commercial feasibility after investment fund is launched.

Fixed Income

• JGBs were bid overnight. Initial gains were exacerbated by a strong 40yr auction, which helped lift the benchmark to a 131.77 peak, with gains of just under 50 ticks at best. Aside from this, focus was on comments from Trump suggesting that Japan and China are always looking to devalue their currencies—remarks which may have weighed on Japanese yields from the start of trade.
• USTs trod water overnight in the typical pre-FOMC holding pattern. Since then, a bout of pressure has emerged, with USTs sliding to a 111-21 base, down just over 4 ticks at worst. For the Fed, the full Newsquawk preview is available: rates are expected to remain unchanged in the 3.50–3.75% range, with focus on the number of dissents, any changes to statement language around the labour market, and/or additional adjustments.
• Bunds have been grinding higher through the morning, reaching a 128.12 peak as, despite strong ASML earnings, European sentiment remains on the back foot. There has been no move from ECB speakers thus far, who have stuck to the script. A robust 2036 Bund auction (b/c 1.65x vs prev. 1.29x) had little impact on the benchmark.
• Gilts opened around 10 ticks higher, reaching a 91.11 peak, before fading back to the figure, where they currently reside. As such, the benchmark is broadly flat on the day, with UK-specific drivers light and the bias likely to remain contained into the Fed.
• Japan sold JPY 400bln in 40-year JGBs; b/c 2.76x (prev. 2.59x), highest accepted yield 3.720% (prev. 3.555%). Price at the highest accepted yield 87.27 (prev. 90.40).
• Germany sells EUR 4.604bln vs exp. EUR 6bln 2.90% 2036 Bund: b/c 1.65x (prev. 1.29x), average yield 2.85% (prev. 2.83%), retention 23.3% (prev. 24.3%)

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks initially gained at the start of the Asia-Pac session, following on from Tuesday’s bid, before paring back those gains. As of writing, WTI and Brent are trading near session lows of USD 62.08/bbl and USD 66.14/bbl, respectively, after peaking earlier in the session at USD 63.00/bbl and USD 67.13/bbl. News flow has been light so far, as markets continue to absorb the effects of the Arctic storm.
• With gas output slowly returning as the worst of the Arctic storm passes, natural gas futures continue to pare back gains made in recent sessions. Henry Hub futures have fallen back below USD 4.00/MMBtu, currently trading around USD 3.63/MMBtu, while Dutch TTF remains below EUR 38/MWh.
• Precious metals continue to trade at record levels, with spot gold extending to another ATH at USD 5,311/oz, supported by the weaker dollar in Tuesday’s session following Trump’s comments indicating comfort with the recent decline in the greenback. Spot silver remains near record highs at USD 113.80/oz, as the London liquidity squeeze persists.
• 3M LME copper gained throughout the APAC session, aided by a weaker dollar and outperformance in Chinese equities. The red metal reclaimed the USD 13,000/t handle, peaking at USD 13.25k/t, before oscillating within a roughly USD 100/t range as the European session gets underway.
• Vitol Asia forecasts H1 2026 crude build of 700k BPD.
• China's Shanghai Futures Exchange to adjust price limits and margin requirement for some gold and silver futures contracts from the 30th January closing settlement.
• Standard Chartered forecasts copper prices in H1'26 at USD 12.96k compared with USD 11.47k in H2'26; USD softness and sharp moves in gold and silver has supported copper.
• Kazakhstan's Energy Minister said oil output decline will ensure the country remains within OPEC+ quotas, adds Kazakhstan's energy minister said, oil production in Kazakhstan declined around 900,000 tons after halts at Tengiz and Korolev.
• ExxonMobil (XOM) executive said LNG demand will remain strong for the next 10 years and LNG demand forecast to double between now and 2050.
• Thailand Central Bank Governor said cap in gold trading will take effect in March.
• US Weekly Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -0.2mln (exp. +1.8mln), Distillate +2.0mln (exp. -0.6mln), Gasoline-0.4mln (exp. +1.0mln), Cushing -0.0mln.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia's Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov said work on Ukraine peace talks is underway, however they are very complicated negotiations.
• "Russia and India to conduct naval exercises in the Indian Ocean in February", Al Arabiya reported citing Tass.
• USTR's Greer said Chinese EVs won't enter the US from Canada without heavy levies, Fox Business reported; criticizes South Korean digital services legislation. The US is still imposing a 50% tariff rate on Indian goods. India has made a lot of progress weaning off Russian oil.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Iran's Foreign Minister said he hasn't been in contact with US Envoy Witkoff recently, adding that there hasn't been any negotiation requests.
• Military source in the Houthi ranks in Yemen told the Lebanese newspaper that the Houthis will not allow any ship or American aircraft carrier to approach the Red Sea or the Arabian Sea due to the threat to Yemen, via X.
• The Rafah crossing will open next Sunday in both directions, according to the Israeli Walla website.

Geopolitics: Other

• EU's Defence Commissioner said Europe must quickly build their defence independently.
• "Russia and India to conduct naval exercises in the Indian Ocean in February", Al Arabiya reported citing Tass.
• South Korea and Japan will conduct defence ministerial talks in Yokusuka this week, according to Yonhap.
• North Korea said it had tested a large calibre multiple rocket launch system, according to KCNA.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Jan 23 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 14.1%
• 2:00 pm: Jan 28 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound), est. 3.75%, prior 3.75%
• 2:00 pm: Jan 28 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound), est. 3.5%, prior 3.5%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Risk assets put in another decent performance yesterday, with solid earnings pushing the S&P 500 (+0.41%) to another record, and futures on the index (+0.29%) are pointing to more gains this morning. But even as US equities reached new heights, the dollar index (-0.85%) fell to its weakest in nearly four years, having now posted its biggest 4-day decline since the Liberation Day turmoil last April. So it was a pretty mixed day for US assets. Meanwhile, geopolitical risk continued to dominate the headlines, with Brent crude oil reaching its highest since September after Trump said the US had a “big armada” heading to the Middle East, which together with the dollar slump pushed gold prices (+3.42%) to another record close of $5,180/oz. And there’ll be no let-up in the headlines today, as we’ve got the Fed’s latest decision tonight, along with earnings from three of the Mag 7 after the US close.

Ahead of the Fed’s decision, the main story was that ongoing dollar weakness, which saw the Dollar index (-0.85%) close at its lowest level since February 2022. Several factors contributed, but importantly, Trump himself was asked about his thoughts on the decline, and said “No, I think it’s great”, suggesting he wanted the currency to “just seek its own level, which is the fair thing to do”. That followed weak US data earlier in the session, as the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence print hit its lowest since 2014, at 84.5 (vs. 91.0 expected). And on top of that, fears around a government shutdown this week continued to swirl, with Polymarket giving it a 76% chance of happening this Saturday. So all those factors contributed to pre-existing concerns pushing the dollar lower, including questions around the Fed’s independence, tariff policy uncertainty and the fiscal trajectory.

Of course, with the dollar moving lower, that meant several other currencies reached multi-year highs against it, with the Euro closing above $1.20 yesterday for the first time since June 2021. But that’s also raised questions about whether the ECB would need to think about another interest rate cut given the downward pressure that would cause on inflation. Indeed, Austrian central bank governor Kocher said in an FT interview out this morning that continued euro appreciation could mean the ECB has to react. So the euro’s slipped back a bit this morning after those comments, and is currently trading at $1.1987.

As all that was happening, investor concern continued to mount about geopolitical risk, with ongoing speculation about a potential US strike on Iran. That followed comments from Trump, in an interview recorded on Monday, saying that the US had a “big armada” heading to the Middle East, although he said “I’d rather not see anything happen”. So that helped push up oil prices, with Brent crude (+3.02%) reaching its highest level since September, at $67.57/bbl, whilst WTI (+2.90%) reached its highest since October, at $62.39/bbl. And there was plenty happening elsewhere for commodities, as precious metals saw another round of records yesterday thanks to heightened geopolitical risk and a broader move away from the US Dollar. So gold prices (+3.42%) posted their best day since April to a new record of $5,180/oz, whilst silver (+8.00%) also hit a record of $112.08/oz. Moreover, those gains have continued overnight, with gold up another +1.55% to $5,261/oz, whilst silver has risen +3.19% to $115.66/oz.

Looking forward, the main highlight on today’s calendar is the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, where it’s widely expected they’ll keep rates on hold after 3 consecutive rate cuts. So with the decision unlikely to surprise, the focus will be on the press conference, where several non-economic issues are likely to come up, including the recent DoJ subpoena, the Lisa Cook case at the Supreme Court, the next Chair, and whether Powell will remain as a Governor after his term as chair concludes in May. Our US economists have more in their preview (link here), but they expect Powell to reiterate the points made in his statement on the subpoena earlier this month, and not comment on the next Chair. Then in terms of policy, they expect the Fed to present a more upbeat view about the economy, and think the statement will signal that they’re well-positioned to respond to risks on either side of their dual mandate.

As we head into the Fed’s decision, that pressure on the dollar also spread to long-end Treasuries yesterday, with 10yr yields (+3.2bps) moving a couple of basis points higher after Trump’s comments to end the day at 4.24%, while 30yr yields rose +5.7bps on the day to 4.86%. By contrast, 2yr yields (-1.7bps) rallied after the weaker consumer confidence data, as investors moved to price in more Fed rate cuts this year. So by the close, 47bps of cuts were priced in by the December meeting, up +1.0bps on the day.

Despite that backdrop of dollar weakness and heightened geopolitical tensions, it was actually a very strong day for US equities, with the S&P 500 (+0.41%) posting a 5th consecutive advance that took the index to a new record. Tech stocks led the way, with the Magnificent 7 (+0.89%) closing just over 1% beneath its own record from late-October, ahead of earnings from Meta, Microsoft and Tesla after tonight’s close. Nevertheless, the gains were fairly narrow, with more than half of the S&P 500 constituents lower on the day.

Meanwhile in Europe, equities also put in a strong performance, with the STOXX 600 (+0.58%) closing just 0.2% beneath its own record high from a couple of weeks ago, whilst Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.70%) hit a new record of its own. However, European bonds only saw modest moves, with yields on 10yr bunds (+0.8bps), OATs (+0.1bps) and BTPs (+0.3bps) all posting small increases. Gilts were the main exception to that, with the 10yr yield (+2.8bps) rising to 4.52%.

Overnight in Asia, there’s been a fairly mixed performance. Some indices have put in a very strong performance, with the KOSPI (+1.64%) currently on track for another record high, whilst the Hang Seng (+2.31%) is currently on course for its highest closing level since 2021. Moreover, the CSI 300 (+0.35%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.36%) are also higher. However, Japan’s Nikkei (-0.46%) and the TOPIX (-0.85%) have lost ground, which comes as the yen continued to strengthen yesterday, closing at 152.21 per US dollar, its strongest since late October. But JGBs have put in a decent performance overnight  after a 40yr auction saw strong demand. So the 10yr JGB yield is down -4.7bps this morning to 2.23%.

Looking at the day ahead, and the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, along with Chair Powell’s press conference. Otherwise, the Bank of Canada will announce their latest decision, and we’ll hear from the ECB’s Elderson and Schnabel. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, IBM, AT&T and Starbucks.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 08:44

Deutsche Bank Shares Tumble After Offices Raided In Money-Laundering Probe

Deutsche Bank shares are down over 3% in early trading following reports that German police raided their offices in Frankfurt and in Berlin on Wednesday morning, as part of an investigation into money laundering.

“We confirm that the Frankfurt public prosecutor’s office is on site in our offices,” a Deutsche Bank spokesperson said in an emailed statement.

“The bank is cooperating fully with the public prosecutor’s office. We cannot comment further.”

As Bloomberg reports, the raid is a setback for Deutsche Bank Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing who is widely credited with turning around the lender and drawing a line under a long period of scandals and losses after taking over almost eight years ago.

The bank has repeatedly been raided in the past.

• In 2022, German law enforcement searched Deutsche Bank’s Frankfurt offices as part of an earlier money laundering probe.

• In May that year, the German bank and its DWS subsidiary were investigated regarding allegations of greenwashing at the latter.

• In 2018, Deutsche Bank was inspected by 170 law enforcement officials as part of a tax evasion probe into two employees.

• The investigation — which stemmed from the 2016 so-called “Panama papers” leak — was later dropped, with the lender fined over compliance shortcomings.

Deutsche Bank “has maintained business relationships in the past with foreign companies which, in turn, are suspected of having been used for money laundering purposes as part of further investigations,” the prosecutor’s office said in the statement.

It’s conducting a raid at Deutsche Bank premises in Frankfurt and Berlin to investigate the matter, it said.

The investigation comes a day before the German lender is due to publish its fourth quarter and year-end earnings report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 08:25

ASML Shares Reverse Earlier Gains After Bookings Bonanza, Job Cuts

Update (0939ET): Aaaaaand, shares in ASML are now red to the tune of -1% despite the good news.

*  *  * 

Shares in ASML, Europe's most valuable company which builds the 'printing presses' for modern microchips, exploded higher in Wednesday trade after Q4 orders blew past analyst estimates. The Dutch semiconductor company also announced job cuts to boost efficiency, and a share buyback of up to €12B by the end of 2028. 

Fueled by demand for AI chips, bookings in the fourth quarter hit a record €13.2 billion ($15.8 billion), the Veldhoven, Netherlands-based company said in a Wednesday announcement reported by Bloomberg. Analysts estimated an average of €6.85 billion, according to the report. Sales were €9.72bln (exp. €6.95bln). 

"In the last months, many of our customers have shared a notably more positive assessment of the medium-term market situation, primarily based on more robust expectations of the sustainability of AI-related demand. This is reflected in a marked step-up in their medium-term capacity plans and in our record order intake," the company said. 

The company will cut around 1,700 jobs (around 4% of its workforce) - mostly in the Netherlands and some in the US, with the goal of streamlining the organization.  

"The last three months have brought a lot of clarity" about what AI means for the semiconductor industry, CEO Christophe Fouquet told Bloomberg TV. "Our customers start to believe that this AI demand is sustainable, and therefore they are moving to building capacity, and they are moving very aggressively."

Shares in the company were up 6% to €1,291.20 in Amsterdam, pushing the stock beyond to YTD gains of 40%. Japanese suppliers also felt the love, with Lasertec Corp., Tokyo Electron Ltd. and Screen Holdings Co., benefiting from the success. 

Overbought? 

According to Bloomberg: 

A key challenge for the sector is the stocks are already stretched from a technical perspective, limiting near-term upside. The 14-day Relative Strength Index for ASML, VAT, ASM International and BE Semiconductor were all above 70 at Tuesday’s close. And the stocks are all up by nearly 30% or more year-to-date.

At one point there will be debate about how much of the AI optimism is already reflected in price. Using ASML as an example, based on the most optimistic analyst earnings forecast for 2027, the stock is still trading at 27-times forward two-year earnings, above the 10-year average of 25 times. 

Morningstar analyst Javier Correonero is advising investors to wait for a better entry point on the stock, as a lot of bullishness for this period and next year have already been priced in - making 'upside market movements more challenging.'

ASML makes lithography machines - tools used to etch microscopic circuit patterns onto silicon wafers during chip manufacturing. Without them, companies like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung couldn't make the most advanced chips used in AI accelerators, smartphones, GPUs, and defense systems. 

Their crown jewel is Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, which uses a 13.5nm wavelength light that allows them to print features only a few atoms wide, and enables the most advanced process nodes (7nm, 5nm, 3nm and beyond). 

EUV machines require plasma-generated EUV light (created by blasting molten tin with lasers), mirrors polished to near-perfect atomic smoothness, vacuum systems (EUV is absorbed by air), and nanometer-precision alignment across thousands of components. 

Each machine costs $150 - $200 million and weighs 180 tons. 

As companies began pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into data centers, chipmakers have been driven to increase capacity - stoking demand for ASML's products. 

Over half of last quarter's bookings were for EUV machines, totaling €7.4 billion, according to the company. 

In 2025, net sales were €32.7 billion, while revenue is seen at between €34 billion and €39 billion, blowing past previous guidance.

"ASML has knocked it out of the park when it comes to order numbers," Ben Barringer, head of technology research at Quilter Cheviot, told Bloomberg. "Given the strength of the order book, we fully expect it to raise guidance throughout the year."

China was ASML's largest market in the fourth quarter - accounting for 36% of net system sales. That said, the Chinese market is expected to drop to around 20% of revs going forward, CFO Roger Dassen said in a call with reporters. 

That said, China is restricted from buying the company's most advanced EUV machines, so ASML is selling them older-generation DUV (deep ultraviolet) systems that are roughly 8 generations behind the cutting edge, and are suitable for mature-node chips, not bleeding-edge AI chips (think cars, appliances, industrial equipment, etc.). 

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 08:15

Trump Says Noem Won't Step Down Over Minnesota Shooting, Doing 'Very Good Job'

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump on Tuesday rebuffed calls for Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to step down from her position in the midst of criticism of immigration officials in the wake of a protester-involved shooting in Minneapolis over the past weekend.

President Donald Trump departs for Florida from the White House on Jan. 16, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

Some Democratic lawmakers called for Noem’s ouster after an agent shot and killed a protester, Alex Pretti, during an altercation in Minneapolis on Saturday. Noem had described Pretti as someone engaging in domestic terrorism, although a top Justice Department official said that administration officials don’t believe Pretti’s actions reach the legal standard for terrorism.

Trump was asked about Noem’s job status while he was speaking with reporters outside the White House on Tuesday. He told reporters he believes Noem is doing a “very good job” and a “great job” as the head of the sprawling federal department, and he cited her work in shutting down the United States–Mexico border.

“Is Kristi Noem going to step down?” a reporter asked him. Trump directly responded by saying no.

Speaking about the border, Trump said that people “forget” that the prior administration had allowed “millions of people” to come through. Border authorities now allow “no one” to come through, and people are only coming into the United States legally, he said.

The Biden administration and the Democratic Party willfully “had allowed tens of millions of people” to enter the United States, with many being murderers, drug dealers, addicts, and people who were removed from mental institutions, Trump said.

On Monday, Trump said that private conversations with both Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey were productive, while the two Democratic leaders offered similarly positive comments.

Walz’s office said Trump had agreed to direct the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to ensure state authorities could conduct their own investigation into the Pretti shooting, while Frey said in a post on X that his understanding was that some federal agents would begin leaving the city on Tuesday.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said his party would vote against funding legislation that includes money for DHS, which oversees Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the federal immigration agency. Congress faces a Jan. 30 deadline to fund the government or risk a partial government shutdown.

Schumer, in a Sunday statement, said Republicans should “join Democrats in overhauling” both ICE and U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

“Senate Democrats will not allow the current DHS funding bill to move forward,” he also said.

Democratic lawmakers in the House have called for Noem’s removal after the Pretti shooting, with several issuing a joint statement on Monday calling for immigration agents in Minneapolis to be stood down.

“This tragic killing comes on the heels of the fatal shooting of Renee Good earlier this month, and multiple other documented incidents of civil-rights abuses and excessive enforcement by ICE and CBP in Minnesota—demonstrating a pattern of misconduct that has fractured trust and terrified communities,” they said in the statement.

The Trump administration has vowed to carry out mass deportations of illegal immigrants and has said that many of the people being arrested and removed from the country are criminals with lengthy rap sheets, including convictions for child abuse, sexual assault, and other crimes.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 08:05

Chinese Hackers Reportedly Breached Phones At "Heart of Downing Street"

Chinese state-linked hackers reportedly accessed mobile phones “at the heart of Downing Street” as part of a long-running cyber-espionage campaign targeting telecom networks worldwide, according to Fox News.

U.S. intelligence agencies believe the breaches began as early as 2021, though they were publicly revealed in 2024 after American officials warned allies about widespread intrusions into global telecommunications systems.

The campaign targeted several countries, including the U.S. and members of the Five Eyes alliance. Investigators say the attackers may have gained access to the data of millions, with the ability to monitor calls, read messages, and track locations.

Former U.S. national security adviser Anne Neuberger said the “Chinese gained access to networks and essentially had broad and full access,” allowing them to “geolocate millions of individuals” and “record phone calls at will.”

Fox News reports that a source told The Telegraph that the breach reached “right into the heart of Downing Street,” raising concerns that senior U.K. officials may have been affected.

In response, U.S. agencies urged telecom companies in 2024 to strengthen security. A joint advisory in August 2025 warned that Chinese state-sponsored groups, including one known as “Salt Typhoon,” were continuing to target networks globally.

The Telegraph also reported “many” hacking incidents affecting British government phones, particularly during former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s term from 2022 to 2024.

Former Israeli intelligence chief Yuval Wollman said Salt Typhoon is “one of the most prominent names” in cyber-espionage, with operations extending across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.

China has previously denied the allegations, calling them “baseless” and “lacking evidence.” U.K. officials have not yet commented on the latest reports.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 04:15