Amazon Drops After AWS Growth Misses Whisper Estimates As Capex Soars

In our preview of Amazon's earnings, we summarized sentiment as "Bullish, But Concerns Remain" with JPM noting that client "conversations were heavily AWS-skewed with investor focus on degree of acceleration and cloud $ re-capture driven by core workloads, AI, & new partnerships. Still, some concerns remain on broader AI positioning/strategy, Trainium traction, & gap to Azure/Google Cloud growth. Strong Stores execution expected, with N. America margin expansion. But higher fuel costs raise questions on consumer demand & operating margins." They also warned that if everyone expects big AWS growth and has the same thesis, what breaks it out? And then let's not forget what broke AMZN a quarter ago when the stock slumped after the company guided a whopping 50% increase in full year capex to $200BN (vs est of $146.1BN). Would it do a similar capex boost this time?

With that in mind, here is what the company reported for Q1 moments ago:

• EPS $2.82, beating exp. 2.63, a solid beat after missing last quarter:

Revenue was stronger across the board (except a modest miss in the small physical store sales category):

• Net sales $181.52 billion, beating estimates of $177.23 billion 
  • Online stores net sales $64.25 billion, beating estimate $62.65 billion
  • Physical Stores net sales $5.79 billion, missing estimate $5.81 billion
  • Third-Party Seller Services net sales $41.58 billion, beating estimate $40.78 billion, ex F/X +12%, estimate +10.9%
  • Subscription Services net sales $13.43 billion, beating estimate $13.07 billion, ex F/X +12%, estimate +11%
  • Advertising services net sales $17.24 billion, beating estimate $16.9 billion

The somewhat mixed news is that the most important revenue item, AWS, beat the sellside estimate...

• AWS net sales $37.59 billion, beating estimate $36.68 billion

... even though the YoY increase came in shy of the 30% buyside whisper bogey:

• Amazon Web Services net sales excluding F/X +28%, the fastest growth rate since the second quarter of 2022.

Geographically the results were also strong, with North America beating by more than $2 billion:

• North America net sales $104.14 billion, beating estimate $102.08 billion
• International net sales $39.79 billion, beating estimate $38.59 billion

Going down the line: 

• Operating income $23.85 billion, beating estimate $20.75 billion
• Operating margin 13.1%, beating estimate 11.7%
• North America operating margin +7.9%, beating estimate +6.85%
• International operating margin 3.6%, beating estimate 2.58%

While AWS sales growth was solid (if below the whisper), just as impressive was the the margin for the segment also increased from 35.03% to 37.68%, just beating the median Wall Street estimate. Elsewhere, North American profit unexpectedly jumped to $14.161 billion, resulting in a profit margin of 7.94%, down from 9.03% a quarter ago, while international margins rose to 3.58% from 2.05%, the highest since Q2 2025.

As a result of the rise in AWS profits, and generally solid sales margins, Amazon's consolidated operating margin posted a notable jump and in Q1 increased 9.7% to 11.7%, just shy of an all time high. 

Commenting on the quarter, CEO Andy Jassy said that “we’re making customers’ lives easier and better every day across all our businesses, and their response is driving significant growth.... AWS is growing 28% (our fastest growth in 15 quarters) on a very large base, our chips business topped a $20 billion revenue run rate growing triple digits year-over-year , Advertising grew to over $70 billion in TTM revenue, and unit growth in our Stores reached 15% (the highest since the tail end of covid lockdowns)."

Looking ahead, the company's guidance  was also very solid: 

• Net sales for Q2 are expected to be between $194 billion and $199 billion; the midpoint of $196.5 billion was a big beat compared to the median estimate of $189.15 billion.
• Operating income for Q2 is expected between $20.0 billion to $24.0 billion, also above the estimate of $22.86

The projected 17.2% revenue growth was the highest since June 2021.

And while we wait to get some sense of what happened to AMZNs capex guidance, and whether it was revised higher again, here is a less than flattering view of the company's free cash flow: the company's LTM free cash flow plunged to $1.2 billion for the trailing twelve months, vs $25.9 billion for the trailing twelve months ended March 31, 2025

AMZN's free cash flow decreased, driven primarily by a year-over-year increase of $59.3 billion in purchases of property and equipment, net of proceeds from sales and incentives. This increase primarily reflects investments in artificial intelligence

And indeed, capex for the quarter soared to $44.2 billion in the first quarter, exceeded analysts’ expectations, a sign that Amazon is seeing higher expenses for the build-out than anticipated. 

This means that going forward, AMZN will need to burn through its cash or issue new debt to fund further capex growth. Indicatively, AMZN's debt soared to $119 billion in Q1, nearly doubling from $65.6 billion at the end of 2025.

Amazon Chief Executive Officer Andy Jassy has said that the company aims to spend about $200 billion this year — a 56% increase from 2025 — mostly on data centers, including those customized for AI services.

After all that, AMZN shares were slightly lower, largely erasing an earlier kneejerk slide lower as we wait for the company's earnings call 

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 16:39

Alphabet Surges After-Hours On Record Search Queries, Backlog Builds

Google shares are rallying after hours as parent Alphabet's first-quarter earnings report showed strong revenue growth in cloud computing and internet search ads, helping investors look past slowing profits amid huge AI spend.

• Earnings per share were $5.11, well ahead of Wall Street's consensus estimate of $2.63, and up from $2.81 last year.

• Revenue for the quarter reached $110 billion, more than expectations of $107 billion, and up 22% on the year.

The most closely watched line in Google's reporting is its cloud unit which will spend up to $185 billion on AI data centers this year to support its customers that rent AI servers over the internet. Quarterly cloud sales hit $20 billion, up 63% with a 33% operating profit margin.

Despite mounting depreciation expenses, Google Cloud's margin is rising quickly.

In Q1, Google's cloud computing backlog boomed to $460 billion from $240 billion in the December quarter.

The backlog is converted into realized revenue as new data centers come online and crunch artificial intelligence-related workloads - training AI models and processing AI apps.

Perhaps most notably, CapEx came in slightly below expectations ($35.674BN vs $35.97BN exp), but expectations continue to rise...

• *ALPHABET SEES FY CAPEX $180B TO $190B, SAW $175B TO $185B

• *ALPHABET CFO: 2027 CAPEX TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE FROM 2026

And, for now, this is what the market wants to hear with GOOGL up around 4% after-hours...

Google Search queries hit an “all time high” in the first quarter of 2026, according to a statement from CEO Sundar Pichai.

Also, Google's Q3 internet search-advertising revenue came in at $60.40 billion, topping estimates of $59 billion.

However, Google dis not disclose how many monthly users its Gemini chatbot app had at the end of Q1. The Gemini app had 750 million monthly users at the end of Q4.

“This was our strongest quarter ever for our consumer AI plans, driven by the Gemini App. Overall the number of paid subscriptions has now reached 350 million, with YouTube and Google One being the key drivers,” Pichai said.

“Gemini Enterprise has great momentum with 40% quarter on quarter growth in paid monthly active users. And, finally, I’m pleased to see Waymo surpass 500,000 fully autonomous rides a week,” Pichai added.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 16:36

MSFT Dumps As CapEx Disappoints, Despite Top- & Bottom-Line Beat

Heading into the "biggest earnings day ever", MSFT was near the bottom of the Mag7 group, down 22% from its 52-week high, with capacity constraints hampering growth and CapEx concerns weighing down the stock.

Microsoft has guided to roughly $80 billion in AI data center spending this fiscal year, and the Street wants to know if that money is actually getting deployed.

The headline results were solid and prompted initial gains in MSFT after hours as it beat top- and bottom-line:

• *MICROSOFT 3Q REV. $82.89B, EST. $81.46B

• *MICROSOFT 3Q EPS $4.27, EST $4.07

Breaking down the revenue saw beats across the board:

• Microsoft Cloud revenue $54.5 billion, estimate $53.78 billion

• Intelligent Cloud revenue $34.68 billion, estimate $34.32 billion

• Productivity and Business Processes revenue $35.01 billion, estimate $34.48 billion

• More Personal Computing revenue $13.19 billion, estimate $12.65 billion

But Azure and other cloud services revenue barely beat expectations Ex-FX +39%, estimate +38.2%

But those gains were quickly erased as it appears MSFT is not deploying capital as fast as expected:

• *MICROSOFT 3Q CAPEX INCLUDING LEASES $31.9B, EST. $35.29B

The result of all that is MSFT shares are down around 3% after hours, after breaking above recent highs...

Satya Nadella (CEO) was, of course, optimistic: "We are focused on delivering cloud and AI infrastructure and solutions that empower every business to eval-max their outcomes in the agentic computing era. Our AI business surpassed an annual revenue run rate of $37 billion, up 123% year-over-year."

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 16:23

California's Climate Overreach

Authored by Edward Ring via American Greatness,

Even if the most dire climate scenarios are accurate, and humanity must transition away from fossil fuel, it can’t happen overnight. The rational approach is to first develop alternative sources of energy without precipitously destroying the industries that reliably produce oil and natural gas. Once alternatives are available at a competitive price and in sufficient quantities, demand naturally migrates to the alternatives. Meanwhile, the oil and gas industry, recognizing that their core business is to provide energy, actually stays healthy by also investing in the transition.

None of that is happening in California. The approach the state’s politicians have chosen is irrational and predatory. For more than twenty years, they have legislated and litigated the state’s oil and gas companies down to a fraction of their former size, making up most of the resulting energy shortage not with alternative energy, but with imports.

A recent and particularly brazen case of this ongoing harassment comes in the form of Senate Bill 982, something that only last week came perilously close to moving to a floor vote. Under the moral masquerade of requiring restitution for allegedly causing climate change, which in turn allegedly caused wildfires, what this bill really amounted to was a state-sponsored shakedown. SB 982 is a vivid example of how California’s legislature is determined to cannibalize and ultimately destroy entire industries in order to pay for disasters of their own making.

SB 982 would impose liability on fossil fuel companies for “climate-attributable damages,” expected to be assessed in billions of dollars. It would empower California’s attorney general to sue the state’s oil companies without even needing to prove fault, negligence, or specific causation by an individual company.

This bill is not only legalized extortion, but also a total disregard for economic reality. Combustible fuels remain the primary engine of civilization, and they’re not going anywhere for at least the next several decades. Despite this unavoidable fact, California’s in-state oil industry is already on the verge of implosion. The results are easily quantifiable.

Well production in the oil rich state has fallen from over 400 million barrels per year in the 1980s to barely more than 100 million barrels per year in 2024. A major distribution pipeline from fields in Kern County to Northern California refineries was shut down in late 2025 because there wasn’t enough oil left to permit the pipeline to physically move oil through it, nor enough to make it possible for the operators to break even. Additional regulatory harassment has driven two of California’s major refineries to cease operations, leaving existing refinery capacity insufficient to meet demand. Californians now import 75 percent of their crude oil and, by some reports, now have to import 20 percent of their gasoline from refineries in Asia.

Against this backdrop, SB 982 wouldn’t even permit oil companies to recoup the billions that this predatory legislation will empower the state of California to extort from them. Where they could find the billions (trillions?) to pay for “climate attributable damages” if they can’t raise prices to consumers is unclear.

A similar disregard for economic reality is what motivated the introduction of SB 922 to begin with. For years, California’s semi-numerate insurance commissioners, driven by ideology, have made it difficult, if not impossible, for the state’s insurance companies to pass through to rate payers the increases to their own reinsurance payments or to increase rates to reflect updated risk assessments. Then, when wildfires immolated more than 13,000 homes in the Los Angeles area in early 2025, many insurance companies had already canceled coverage and left the state. The remaining insurers offering coverage, including California’s state-funded FAIR insurance plan, were overwhelmed. Without a bailout, these insurers cannot cover the claims.

But the entire premise of SB 982 is flawed. Culpability for the wildfires doesn’t rest with California’s oil companies. The California State Legislature created these disasters because, for decades, they have waged a regulatory assault on California’s timber industry, along with property owners and ranchers who used to engage in grazing, thinning, and controlled burns. In the Santa Monica Mountains surrounding the burned neighborhoods in Los Angeles, herds of sheep, goats, and cattle used to roam the hillsides, and property owners were able to thin overgrown vegetation on their own land as well as adjacent public land.

All of this became nearly impossible, thanks to interference in the form of hyper-regulatory oversight that effectively eliminated nearly all of the practices that had prevented California’s forests and wildlands from turning into tinderboxes. Trees and scrublands became overgrown, with the vegetation dried out and stressed not because of “climate change” but because natural and prescribed fires were suppressed at the same time any other form of thinning was all but banned. More than any other single factor, environmentalist extremism has caused California’s catastrophic wildfires.

Rather than admitting their culpability for the entire disaster, the wiped out homes, lost lives, and ensuing economic cataclysm, California’s state legislature blames oil companies. This entire charade is a prime exhibit of why climate change alarm in California has become, more than anything else, a scam designed to deflect responsibility for bad policies and to redistribute wealth and power to bureaucrats who haven’t shown the slightest evidence of learning from their decades of negligent opportunism.

Thanks to what capacity remains for rational climate policy in California, the targets of SB 982’s predatory scheme were able to stall its progress in the legislature this year. But the state’s appetite for seizing billions from disfavored industries isn’t going to go away. A “compromise” that almost had SB 982 sailing into law was to “permit” oil companies to earn “credits” against eventual judgments if they could prove they invested in wind, solar, and carbon capture schemes, all of which are deemed to lower emissions. Notwithstanding the subjective and economically draining morass of “carbon accounting,” this supposed compromise will only intensify; it is yet another way to further impose on oil companies the responsibility for funding projects that, in many cases, are patently ridiculous, such as direct air capture of CO₂, or blatantly destructive to the environment, such as floating offshore wind.

The example California is setting with its war on fossil fuel is not anything for residents in other states to take lightly. The state’s particularly virulent strain of climate overreach is a national disease, stronger in some states than in others, but spreading its contagion everywhere. In 2007, despite having an allegedly conservative majority, the US Supreme Court actually found CO₂ to be a pollutant that could be subject to regulation by the US EPA. The Trump administration has directed the EPA to reverse the regulations that followed the decision, but an incoming Democratic administration will bring it all back.

Anyone still believing that extreme climate shakedowns will be confined to blue states should read a brilliant national overview of the problem. Published in the Spring 2026 edition of City Journal, “The Climate Litigation Swindle” is written by Heather Mac Donald, a researcher noted for uncommon diligence and impeccable logic. In a nearly 6,000 word essay, Mac Donald describes several avenues of litigation being pursued by climate activists throughout the United States. The audacity of these lawsuits is only matched by their vapidity. But that won’t stop lower courts, or a US Supreme Court, should it end up packed and flipped by a new Democratic administration, from granting credence to every absurdity these creative litigants can possibly conjure.

Climate extremists are part of a larger sickness infecting America. They are part of a movement that seeks to undermine our economy, discredit capitalism, disparage Western civilization and Western traditions, spread fear, resentment, despair and self loathing among our youth, and, through their ignorance and fanaticism, deny Americans the opportunities that preceding generations have taken for granted. They are a menace. They must be stopped.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 16:20

 

 

At The Money: How to Max Out Your Small Business Retirement Plan with Dan Larosa (April 29, 2026)

Are you running a small business or “side hustle” that generates real income? You may not be taking full advantage of the many retirement savings plans available.

Full transcript below.

~~~

About this week’s guest:

Dan LaRosa is Director of Corporate Retirement Plans at Ritholtz Wealth Management, overseeing more than $400 million in various plans. He is a Qualified Plan Financial Consultant (QPFC) and Accredited Investment Fiduciary (AIF) and partner at the firm.

For more info, see:

Professional Bio

LinkedIn

~~~

 

Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

 

TRANSCRIPT: At the Money: Retirement Plans for Small Business Owners and Solo Practitioners
with Barry Ritholtz and Dan LaRosa

 

Intro:  If you ever get annoyed
Look at me I’m self-employed
I love to work at nothing all day
And I’ll be…Taking care of business every day
Taking care of business every way

Barry Ritholtz: Saving for retirement is challenging, especially if you’re a small business owner or solo practitioner. Various retirement plans like SEPs, solo Ks, and Mega Backdoor Roths can really be confusing. There are so many choices, the options have increased, and the rules have become even more complex. To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your retirement portfolio, let’s bring in Dan LaRosa. He’s an expert in corporate qualified retirement accounts, working with clients all over the country. Full disclosure: Dan runs the corporate retirement planning group at Ritholtz Wealth Management, my firm, and he’s one of my partners. So Dan, let’s start basic. What options exist for either solo or small business owners if they want to save more money for retirement on a tax-deferred basis?

Dan LaRosa: Sure, Barry. The main options, at least the options that you’ll more likely than not start with, are a SEP IRA or a solo 401(k). A lot of people default to a SEP, even if they’re in a situation where the solo K might actually be a better option. The SEP is just simpler, and it’s often the first thing that your CPA is going to mention to you or recommend. Solo 401(k)s with a Mega Backdoor Roth feature have also gotten more popular in recent years. And once you have one of those in place, if you’re still looking for more tax deferral opportunities, a defined benefit cash balance plan might be a good fit.

Barry Ritholtz: Really interesting. Last time when we talked about Mega Backdoor Roth, the total you can contribute if you’re working for a firm is $72,000. But these days, so many people have side hustles. They set up an LLC or a little company to do something, and maybe they’re a solo practitioner, maybe it’s a husband and wife, and this is income beyond what their regular paycheck is. If you maxed out your Mega Backdoor Roth at your regular employer and you have this side gig, how much can you add above that $72,000?

Dan LaRosa: A lot of people don’t realize this, but each plan has its own $72,000 limit. The only thing that aggregates across all plans is the $24,500 employee deferral limit. That’s the amount of money that each of us can contribute to our 401(k) plan. But each plan has a $72,000 limit. So if you have a side hustle or a solo gig, you can set up a solo 401(k) with a Mega Backdoor Roth, or even just a regular solo K or SEP. As long as your income is high enough, you can make additional contributions into that retirement plan of up to $72,000.

Barry Ritholtz: And how do they figure out the $72,000? Is that based on over $145,000 or $150,000 a year, or is there a percentage calculation? Where does that $72,000 number come from?

Dan LaRosa: The $72,000 number is just the overall 401(k) limit, or retirement plan limit. The SEP actually has the same, but how to get there is a bit of a loaded question, and it’s different for each of those plans. The SEP IRA is technically all employer contributions, so your contribution amounts are directly tied to your earnings. You can contribute up to 20% of your net income to get to that $72,000 number. So you do the math: you need an income of $360,000 to max out and get to that $72,000. The solo K — only a portion of your contribution is tied to your income, so you can contribute a lot more on a lower income. An income of about $235,000 to $240,000 will get you to that $72,000 max. The Mega Backdoor Roth is a bit of a cheat code. As long as your net income is $72,000, you can contribute all of that into the solo 401(k).

Barry Ritholtz: What are the trade-offs between the SEP IRA, the solo 401(k), and the solo Mega Backdoor Roth? It sounds like this is really complex. Are there any advantages or disadvantages to each of these?

Dan LaRosa: It is complex, and that’s why a lot of people just default to a SEP because it’s easier, but it really depends on your income and your objectives. If your income is on the lower side, or maybe it varies from year to year, the solo K is going to certainly allow the most flexibility and let you maximize your contribution even in those lower income years. If Roth contributions are the objective, you just can’t beat the solo K with the Mega Backdoor Roth. It’s going to allow you to contribute up to $72,000 in Roth contributions. You can’t find that anywhere else. But if your income is consistently high and Roth is not a priority — you just want to maximize your tax deferrals — then a SEP is going to get the job done.

Barry Ritholtz: So if you’re making $100,000 or less, or $250,000 or more, or a million or more, that may affect which of these you choose.

Dan LaRosa: Yeah, for sure. And again, assuming you want to maximize your contributions, you want to contribute as much as you can — the lower your income is, the more powerful the solo 401(k) is. You’re just going to have a lot more flexibility with your contributions. And the higher your income goes, you’re fine with a SEP, because that 20% of your net income, if your income is high enough — again, over $353,000 to $360,000 — you’re going to be putting $70,000-plus away a year.

Barry Ritholtz: Really intriguing. How do you count an employee if you’re a solo 401(k)? Does it matter if you’re 1099 or W-2 or part-time or spouse? A husband and wife own a small business — who counts as an employee for these?

Dan LaRosa: The solo 401(k) is easy. Once you have a W-2 employee that becomes eligible, it’s no longer a solo K, and it’s going to be hard for the owner to max out without contributions to that employee. The SEP is a little bit different. The eligibility requirement is referred to as the three-of-five rule. Once you have an employee that’s worked three out of any five years earning more than something nominal — I think $700 or $750 — they’re eligible, and that means they would receive the same percentage of compensation that you’re giving yourself. So that could get expensive in a hurry. As far as a spouse being classified as an employee, you can have your spouse in the solo K and still run the solo K — you’re not going to be disqualified. Your spouse counts as another owner. Also, a lot of people don’t realize that a solo K can have multiple partners in it. In other words, if a company has four different partners, you can have all four partners and each of the spouses in the solo K, as long as there are no non-owner employees. You’re good to go.

Barry Ritholtz: And that’s $72,000 per person, husband and wife?

Dan LaRosa: Per person. Again, assuming the income allows for it, but yes.

Barry Ritholtz: Really intriguing. Let’s talk about the administration and compliance burdens of these various options. I know you need plan documents, and then there’s the infamous Form 5500, and there are all sorts of recordkeeping rules. What do small businesses have to know? How do they avoid getting tripped up by all of this?

Dan LaRosa: SEPs are the easiest for sure. It’s just a few forms to set up, and there’s no annual maintenance, no filings. The owner just needs to track their contributions. With the solo 401(k), there is a little more, and the biggest thing is: once the plan reaches a total of $250,000 in total plan assets on December 31st of any plan year, a Form 5500-EZ must be filed. That’s basically the tax return for the plan. It’s a really simple form, but the penalties are insane. It’s $250 a day, up to $150,000. For a very long time, this really wasn’t regulated, but in recent years we’ve actually really seen an uptick in enforcement of these penalties. It shouldn’t prevent you from setting up a solo K, but it’s very important to be aware of this when you set the plan up.

Barry Ritholtz: Let’s talk setup and funding. When do these plans need to be set up and funded by? We’re recording this in February of 2026. Is it too late to set something up and fund it for 2025? What does the timing look like?

Dan LaRosa: No, you still have plenty of time. The SEP is an IRA, so just like any other IRA, it’s always been able to be established and funded for a prior year. You have until tax filing plus extension to get that plan funded. Effective, I believe, last year, the solo K got a lot more lenient and kind of follows that same path as the SEP. So you can establish a solo K and fund it for the prior year, with some caveats. If the plan is set up by April 15th — say for this year, the plan is set up by April 15th, 2026 — you can make employee and employer profit-sharing contributions. So you can get to that full $72,000, as long as you fund by the extended filing deadline of October 15th of this year. If you set up the plan after April 15th of this year, you can only make your employer contributions — your profit-sharing contributions — to it. So you’re going to be a little more limited as to how much you can fund.

Barry Ritholtz: Let’s talk about succession planning or exit planning, or with a husband and wife, the death of a spouse. Is any one structure superior to others? If the owner expects to sell the business or retire, or maybe even bring in partners, which is the most flexible here?

Dan LaRosa: The solo K is always going to give you more flexibility than the SEP. If there are multiple partners in the solo K, they can each contribute different amounts, or some not at all. SEP contributions are pro rata, so everyone has to get the same percentage of comp. So obviously not ideal if there are going to be multiple partners or people with different goals involved. On the other hand, SEPs are just structurally a lot simpler, easier to unwind if necessary. So really, one isn’t always going to be better than the other. It really depends on the situation.

Barry Ritholtz: One of the advantages of 401(k)s is the creditor and ERISA protections. Even if you lose litigation, nobody can take your retirement money away. Do the same things apply to the SEP or solo 401(k)? Is it really the same set of rules?

Dan LaRosa: What you’re talking about with 401(k)s is that additional ERISA protection. ERISA plans — which are your employer 401(k)s and defined benefit plans — have the most creditor protection of all qualified plans. It is a common misconception that solo Ks, because they’re 401(k)s, also have this enhanced creditor protection. They do not, because they don’t cover any non-owner employees. They don’t qualify for that extra ERISA protection. So SEPs and solo Ks are on the same level in terms of creditor protection — the same as a regular IRA. If you are in a litigious profession and that protection is important, it might be a good idea to roll some of those IRA or solo K balances into your employer 401(k) or defined benefit plan, if you have one available.

Barry Ritholtz: That is really interesting. I would imagine doctors — I remember back in the day, brokers used to get sued on a regular basis — so that seems to be worthwhile. Last question: if you have a business owner that’s married, whether or not the spouse works for them in the business, can that spouse also open either a solo 401(k) or SEP or Mega Backdoor Roth 401(k) and legitimately increase the household contribution, assuming the revenue allows for it?

Dan LaRosa: Yeah, as long as your spouse is a legitimate employee of your solo practice, you can do that, and it has tremendous benefits. But they have to be an employee on payroll, receiving wages. The solo K allows you to contribute a lot even on a low income. A spouse would be able to actually contribute 100% of their compensation up to that $24,500 — or if you’re over 50, $32,500. That adds up quickly. It’s an easy way to supercharge your household savings — adding your spouse to your solo practice retirement plan.

Barry Ritholtz: All this stuff is so intriguing, and it’s just another tool in the toolbox. To wrap up: if you’re a small business owner or solo practitioner and you haven’t taken advantage of the various tax-deferred retirement savings plans — whether it’s a SEP, a solo 401(k), or a Mega Backdoor Roth 401(k) — speak to your fill-in-the-blank financial advisor, accountant, or tax professional, and get hopping on this. This is an enormous way to accumulate wealth over the next 10 or 20 years and have various options of whether this goes in pre-tax or post-tax, which allows you to maximize your long-term returns. I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Bloomberg’s At the Money.

~~~

Find our entire music playlist for At the Money on Spotify.

 

The post At The Money: How to Max Out Your Small Business Retirement Plan appeared first on The Big Picture.

United Pilot Reports 737 Struck By "Red, Shiny" Drone On San Diego Approach

OSINT accounts on X are circulating ATC audio from theATCapp that allegedly captures a United Airlines pilot reporting a drone strike while the Boeing 737 was on base leg for landing at San Diego International Airport.

The pilot of United 1980 told SAN Ground that, at around 3,000 feet, the 737 struck a drone during the base leg, which is right before final approach.

Ground asked the United 1980 pilot, "Do you have an approximate size, or how many engines?"

The pilot responded, "It was so small I couldn't tell. It was red, shiny. I couldn't tell."

United Airlines flight 1980 (Boeing 737) hit a drone over San Diego this morning around 3000 feet.

Audio via @theATCapp pic.twitter.com/EFclpROOlL

— Thenewarea51 (@thenewarea51) April 29, 2026

"No off-the-shelf consumer drone can get to 3000 feet. I'll be very interested to see how this investigation plays out," one X user stated.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 15:50

Powell's Final FOMC Sees Most Dissents In 34 Years As Fed Keeps Rate Unch (As Expected)

Since the last FOMC meeting (on March 18), gold has been clubbed like a baby seal ("EM piggy bank") while stocks and oil have surged (with the former ignoring the peril of the latter)...

During that time, Fed rate-change expectations have swung violently from a full rate-cut to a full rate-hike and fallen back to no change at all in 2026, notably (hawkishly) rising in the last few days as oil prices surged back to war highs...

On the macro front, The Fed's dual mandate is in play as (surprisingly) inflation has surprised to the downside while growth has surprised to the upside...

Notably, The Fed doesn't need to cut rates today for monetary policy to get easier as inflation expectations are rising so much that ex-ante real rates have fallen to the lowest since November and are close to turning negative...

As we detailed earlier, recent labor data (March jobs, ADP, claims) has shown resilience and potentially some green shoots. To Bank of America, this should reduce the sense of urgency to shore up the labor market among the doves.

But, as a result of latent inflation threats, some of the most prominent doves on the committee have changed their tone of late. In a speech last week, Waller emphasized not only upside risks to inflation from the Iran war.

Nevertheless, with all that behind us, the market is expecting a big fat nothingburger from Fed Chair Powell's last (maybe) FOMC meeting, but is expecting an indication of 'two-sided risks' with a single dissent (from Miran calling for a 25bps cut).

What The Fed Did and Said...

Most divided (8-4) Fed in 34 years votes to hold rates unchanged as expected BUT... With 4 No Votes, Powell's Final Meeting Garners Most Dissents in 34 Years

• *FED: HAMMACK, KASHKARI, LOGAN VOTED AGAINST EASING BIAS, BACKED

• *FED SAYS GOVERNOR STEPHEN MIRAN DISSENTS IN FAVOR OF RATE CUT

Fed officials also changed slightly their characterization of the uncertainty around the conflict in Iran: 

“Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook.”

Back in March they said the implications for the US economy were “uncertain.”

In the spirit of Fed transparency, Powell leaves on a confusing note.

So, three of the dissenters opposed “inclusion of an easing bias.”

And yet the actual language of the statement arguably doesn’t specify such a bias.

It says that the committee would be prepared “to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate.”

That doesn’t specify cutting interest rates.

It’s interesting that the trio of dissenters on the bias basically labeled this language as a bias to ease. Because arguably it’s neutral:

The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.

The “goals” of course are price stability and maximum employment.

But it appears that the trio views this language as mainly attaching to the jobs mandate, it seems to us.

Fed officials said the economy is expanding “at a solid pace” with “low” job gains and the unemployment rate “little changed”. That’s all the same as in March.
 
Their characterization of inflation changed slightly:

“Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.”

However, as Bloomberg notes, in central bank world every word matters, and there has been extensive debate around the characterization of “additional adjustments.” Some Fed watchers deem the wording as signaling most policymakers still see a rate cut as their next likely step, in what’s known as an easing bias. That bias stayed unchanged today:

“In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

Read the full red-line of The Fed statement below:

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 15:45

Chinese Nationals Among 51 Indicted Over Marijuana Grow Operations In Oklahoma

Authored by Michael Clements via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Department of Homeland Security investigation has resulted in the indictment of 51 defendants—including 29 Chinese nationals—on 67 counts of conspiracy to manufacture black-market marijuana in Oklahoma for distribution in Texas, Mississippi, Kansas, and North Carolina, among other locales.

Oklahoma drug enforcement agent Mike Garcia looks over rows of marijuana plants at an illegal grow facility in Ponca City, Okla, on Dec. 22, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

The defendants are from California, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Mississippi, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Texas. Of the 51 indicted, 23 are fugitives, and 11 of the Chinese defendants have obtained permanent legal residence in the United States.

The April 21 indictment alleges that between March 2025 and April 2026, a network of growers, brokers, transporters, and distributors sent marijuana into the black market in Oklahoma and across the United States.

Mike Garcia, agent in charge of the 8th District Attorney’s Drug Task Force and Major Crime Unit, told The Epoch Times that illicit operators often buy old houses or undeveloped property and add buildings to grow marijuana.

Garcia said it was difficult to stay on top of the operations.

“You have to keep countering the illegal [operations] to balance it out. It’s a hard thing to do,” Garcia said.

According to a Department of Justice news release on April 27, marijuana was allegedly transported from grow operations to stash houses, and then to customers for further distribution.

Defendants reportedly split the proceeds and also concealed those proceeds by transporting large amounts of cash and using businesses to disguise the nature of the funds.

The conspiracy was carried out, in large part, with cell phones, and, as alleged in the indictment, law enforcement intercepted calls of two of the main conspirators, Li Shun Chen, 53, and Ying Wang, 45, both of Oklahoma City, according to the press release.

A federal grand jury handed down the indictment on April 21. The indictment also calls for the forfeiture of properties and assets used to generate or mask proceeds of the black-market transactions, including properties throughout Oklahoma.

A vernal pool polluted with chemicals used for growing illegal marijuana border an agricultural form in Ponca City, Okla., on Dec. 22, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

“Since 2021, when our agency created Marijuana Enforcement Teams (MET), we’ve proudly worked alongside our federal and state partners to target criminal organizations operating in Oklahoma,” Oklahoma Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs Control Director Donnie Anderson said in the release. “These partnerships have resulted in a dramatic drop in illegal marijuana farms within our state.”

Oklahoma legalized medical marijuana on June 26, 2018, in hopes that a 7 percent excise tax and state and local property taxes would finance education and infrastructure while creating new jobs.

Mark Woodward, public information officer for the Oklahoma Bureau of Narcotics, said organized criminals used this as an opportunity to get involved. He told The Epoch Times that up to 85 percent of the illegal grow facilities in Oklahoma have ties to Chinese organized crime.

“They used straw owners because so many of them came here during the COVID-19 pandemic,” he said. “The first thing they wanted to do was try to look legitimate.”

The investigation was led by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration and the Oklahoma Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs Control along with multiple federal, state, and local agencies.

The case is being prosecuted in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Oklahoma.

Allan Stein contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 15:30

StarCloud CEO Says Starship Gives SpaceX Launch Monopoly For Near Decade

The CEO of the startup building data centers for eventual low Earth orbit deployment told Molly O'Shea of the Sourcery podcast that he expects Elon Musk's SpaceX to hold a "near monopoly on launches" over the next five to ten years, driven by Starship's scale, launch cadence, and cost advantage.

Starcloud CEO Philip Johnston told O'Shea:

I'm very hopeful that other launch vehicles will be able to compete with SpaceX, but my general hot take is that SpaceX is going to have a near-monopoly on launch for at least the next five years, maybe ten.

I think Starship is way ahead of any other program, and even like Stokes Space—if their rocket works—their payloads are three tonnes versus 150-tonne payload for Starship. Especially with Gigafactory, so yeah, that's it.

O'Shea asked Johnston about Jeff Bezos' rocket company, Blue Origin, and whether it could challenge SpaceX's launch dominance in the years ahead: 

The problem with Blue Origin's rocket is they don't have a reusable upper stage at the moment, and as I understand, they're not even really trying to build a reusable upper stage.

So if they can get it flying, you're talking about launch costs comparable maybe with Falcon 9, although their quotes we've had are way higher than that.

.@Starcloud_ CEO @PhilipJohnston expects SpaceX to have a "near monopoly on launch" for the next 5–10 years:

"Starship is way ahead of any other program."

"The manufacturing that they're ramping up is insane—like building three Starships per day potentially with their… pic.twitter.com/qGCWPJ3cIh

— sourcery (@sourceryy) April 28, 2026

Musk's SpaceX is gearing up for the largest IPO ever, which could value the rocket company at up to $2 trillion. At this valuation, Musk would likely become the first trillionaire.

The latest data from Bloomberg shows Musk's net worth is around $646 billion. Larry Page of Google trails in the No. 2 spot at $297 billion, with Bezos at No. 3 at $278 billion.

In December, we outlined for readers how to profit from space-based data centers, given that ground-based data centers are being delayed or canceled, alarming the tech bros. This suggests that, with limited to no restrictions on space, space-based data centers will be the next big push - all hinging on the commercialization of Starship.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 15:10

Water-Based Method Recovers 65% Of EV Battery Metals In One Minute At Room Temperature

Authored by Neetika Walter via Interesting Engineering,

Researchers at Rice University have developed a water-based method that recovers valuable metals from spent lithium-ion batteries in minutes, offering a faster and lower-energy alternative to conventional recycling systems.

The new process targets key battery materials including lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese, which are in growing demand as electric vehicle and electronics production expands worldwide.

Battery recycling is becoming increasingly important as mineral supply chains tighten and nations seek to reduce dependence on newly mined materials. But many current recovery methods rely on harsh acids, toxic solvents, or long processing times.

Rice researchers say their new class of aqueous “amino chloride” solutions can extract metals quickly while avoiding many of those drawbacks.

Metals back, fast

“Traditional recycling methods often rely on harsh acids or slow, energy-intensive processes,” said study first author Simon M. King. “What we’ve shown is that you can achieve rapid, high-efficiency metal recovery using a much simpler, water-based system.”

The team focused on hydrometallurgical recycling, in which battery metals are dissolved into a liquid and later separated for reuse. It is considered one of the more scalable approaches, but common solvents can create environmental and cost challenges.

To improve the process, the researchers tested several amino chloride salts as alternative leaching agents. One compound, hydroxylammonium chloride, or HACl, delivered the best results.

In testing, the HACl solution extracted about 65 percent of key battery metals in just one minute at room temperature. Recovery rates climbed above 75 percent for several metals with slightly longer treatment times.

That speed is notable because many recycling systems require elevated temperatures or extended reaction periods, both of which increase energy use and operating costs.

Water beats solvents

“We were surprised by just how fast the reaction occurs, especially without the involvement of high temperatures,” King said. “Within the first minute, we’re already seeing the majority of the metal extraction take place.”

Researchers said replacing traditional organic solvents with water lowered viscosity, allowing molecules to move more freely and accelerate reactions. Water-based chemistry also simplifies waste handling and may reduce environmental risks.

The team used experiments and modeling to understand why the solution performed so well. While acidity and chloride ions help dissolve metals, the researchers found that a built-in redox-active nitrogen center in HACl played a major role.

“While the rapid metal dissolution is very interesting, what is most exciting is that this highlights the generic chemical properties that are the major drivers for efficient leaching,” said Sohini Bhattacharyya.

“That redox capability gives it a major advantage over other similar systems we tested.” After extraction, the recovered metals were reprocessed into new battery materials, demonstrating a closed-loop recycling pathway.

The findings could help shape next-generation battery recycling plants by combining low-toxicity solvents with targeted chemistry that boosts speed and efficiency. With EV battery waste expected to rise sharply in the coming years, faster recovery methods may become increasingly valuable.

The study was published in Small.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 14:50

Wall Street Reacts To Powell's Last FOMC Meeting

The kneejerk reaction from Wall Street pundits is that the bar for the Federal Reserve to hike rates is still relatively high and there’s no need for the Fed to change its bias or react in a meaningful way: that's the view voiced by SocGen's US Research Head Subadra Rajappa, who said on BBG TV that the "US is in a very good position overall"

Others, such as Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist Luzzetti, said that "the Fed could adopt a more balanced language" while JPMorgan Head of Global Fixed Income Bob Michele notes that "the US economy looks pretty good and can absorb some inflation" adding that "inflation is passing through the system" and so "need to watch if cost-push inflation passes to prices."

Michele also said that he’s reluctant to say this time the economy will stumble given how the economy managed tariffs last year, and believes that the Fed cold remain on hold until end of this year, even as "the bar to hike got lowered a notch."

Below we summarize several views from across Wall Street:

• Katherine Judge at CIBC Capital markets: "Oddly, the statement noted that three members who supported maintaining the target range did not support including an easing bias in the statement, even though the text they were objecting to was not present in the statement."
• Simon Penn, UBS trader: "Hammack, Kashkari and Logan said they didn't support the easing bias. The easing bias itself is reflected in the following sections: "attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate."
• Maria Capurro, Bloomberg Econ: "We won’t know what really drove the dissenters until they release their public statements, but it is worthy to note this is the committee that Kevin Warsh, Trump’s appointee, will now face: one with growing dissents, where at least some officials do want to make it clear a rate hike is on the table"
• Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets: his take is the forward-guidance language as having been interpreted as an easing bias: The relevant language is “In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range” - not clearly biased toward easing, but it has been interpreted as such in the past. 
• Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM: "The dissents could also be about preserving Fed’s independence: One gets the sense that the three dissenters are signaling a willingness to not only protect central bank independence but also the incoming bias towards rate cuts when inflation is clearly heading in the direction that may require rate hikes."
• Nic Puckrin, macro analyst and CEO of Coin Bureau: "The chance that we won’t see a rate cut at all this year has increased to 77%. However, other central banks – notably the BOJ – are already discussing hikes. Most commentators don’t expect hikes from the Fed, yet the central bank could begin running out of options. This doesn’t bode well, because hiking could mean plunging the banking and private credit sectors into crisis. Wall Street banks now hold more US treasuries than at any point since the GFC in 2007 – up 37% from last year to $550bn. If rates rise, this could become a massive liability, while private credit is already under enormous pressure at current rate levels."
• David Russell, Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation: "Miran is increasingly a lonesome dove. Today’s dissents show the pendulum is swinging away from rate cuts. Inflation is a growing risk as oil soars and the job market remains tight. March’s durable goods orders also confirm the strong economy and remove the need for easing. The AI datacenter boom is making it easier for policy to be far less necessary. Kevin Warsh could be stepping into a difficult spot if he was hoping to deliver rate cuts."

Developing

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 14:35

Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell's Last Press Conference

With Kevin Warsh having won the backing of the Senate Banking Committee on a 13-11 party-line vote to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, it's pretty much a done deal that this will be Jerome Powell's final press conference as Fed Chair.

And while The Fed took no action - as 100% expected - the question remains whether Powell will lean hawkish (oil crisis means inflation tsunami) or dovish (higher costs drag on economy and need support) despite the most dissents (3 hawkish-er, 1 dovish-er) since 1992...

“The stink of stagflation is in the air,” Senator Elizabeth Warren warned, adding that confirmation of Warsh would help Trump dominate the Fed’s monetary policy.

The combination of Warsh’s calls for a smaller balance sheet, new ways to think about inflation and communication changes put the onus on Warsh to make clear he’ll defend the Fed’s independence, said EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco.

“Taken together, this points to a more centralized, less transparent and potentially more politically-exposed policy framework,” he said.

But all of that is for another day as today is Powell's big finale where he will likely note both the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to the labor market and growth.

But which way will he lean?

If Powell's final comments mirror those of Daly ( that if policy were left unchanged all year, “that would be a good restraint on inflation, but not so restrictive to hurt the labor market”), markets would read that as very hawkish.

We shall see... for now, the market is not leaning one way or another with zero rate-changes priced in until at least 2027.

Finally, Powell might get asked whether he has decided how long he will stay on at the Fed as a Governor. He will likely respond that he doesn't have anything to add to his comments from the March press conference.

Watch Fed Chair Powell's final press conference live here (due to start at 1400ET):

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 14:25

Acting AG Blanche Denies Trump Directed James Comey Prosecution

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche on April 29 said that President Donald Trump did not order the Department of Justice (DOJ) to file more charges against former FBI Director James Comey over a social media post that he made last year.

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche (L) speaks alongside FBI Director Kash Patel during a press conference about the White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting, at the Justice Department in Washington on April 27, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

“Of course not, absolutely, positively not,” Blanche told “CBS Mornings” when he asked whether the president directed him to pursue new charges against Comey. “This is something that has been investigated for nearly a year now, and the results of that investigation is that a grand jury returned an indictment.”

On Tuesday, a grand jury returned an indictment against Comey over an Instagram post he made in May 2025 with a photo of seashells arranged on a beach to say “86 47.” Federal prosecutors said it was a threat to assassinate Trump. Comey later deleted the post and said that he thought the sell arrangement was a political message, not a call to violence.

“I didn’t realize some folks associate those numbers with violence,” and “I oppose violence of any kind so I took the post down,” Comey wrote at the time.

The criminal case is the second in months against Comey. A separate and unrelated indictment against the former FBI director was dismissed in late 2025 after a court ruled that the U.S. attorney who brought the charges was appointed in an unlawful manner.

Prosecutors said in a news release Tuesday of the new charge that it was a message that a “reasonable recipient who is familiar with the circumstances would interpret as a serious expression of an intent to do harm to the President of the United States.”

Comey was charged with threatening the president and transmitting a threat in interstate commerce. He could face a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison, according to the Department of Justice.

“If anybody in this country thinks—especially given what happened over the past couple of years with respect to President Trump—that it is okay for anybody to threaten the president of the United States ... and then have the media or others say, well that’s not serious, then we have a bigger problem than I even imagined in this country,” Blanche told CBS on April 29.

The acting attorney general added that “anybody who tries to put forward some narrative that this is just about seashells or something to the contrary is missing the point,” stressing, “You cannot threaten the president of the United States.”

Comey was fired by Trump months into the president’s first term, and the two men have openly feuded ever since. Blanche, a former deputy attorney general who previously worked as Trump’s personal attorney, was elevated earlier this month to replace Pam Bondi, the first attorney general of Trump’s second term in office.

Responding to the new indictment, Comey released a video through Substack on April 28 in which he denied any wrongdoing.

“Well, they’re back. This time about a picture of seashells on a North Carolina Beach a year ago, and this won’t be the end of it. But nothing has changed with me. I’m still innocent, I’m still not afraid, and I still believe in the independent federal judiciary. So let’s go,” he said in the video.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 14:20

Your Bank Is Becoming A Casino: River CEO Frames Bitcoin As The Alternative

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via Bitcoin Magazine,

Bitcoin 2026 speaker Alex Leishman used his Nakamoto Stage talk, titled “We’re Not Fixing Money to Build More Casinos,” to deliver a sharp warning that modern finance is drifting toward a gambling model and away from basic banking. 

Leishman, CEO of River, said the American dream feels out of reach for many people as housing costs rise, student debt lingers, and wages lag, and argued that this pressure helps explain why prediction markets and betting features are spreading through mainstream financial apps. 

In his view, a system that once promised stable savings now pushes people toward risk if they want a shot at financial freedom.

Leishman opened by describing a growing belief that “more and more people are coming to the conclusion” that they need to gamble to get ahead. He said finance and entertainment have merged on the phone screen, with products that look like investing tools but function like casinos. 

He pointed to platforms that promote constant trading and outcome bets, and said this environment tells users that the safe path of saving no longer works, only high‑risk wagers do. The result, he argued, is a landscape in which households face a choice between stagnation and speculative bets framed as empowerment.

Leishman contrasted today’s market with an earlier era in which a bank was a place that kept money safe. Banking and gambling were separate activities, he said, governed by different norms and expectations. Prediction markets, he argued, have given financial institutions a rationale to fold sports betting and event wagers into apps that once focused on savings and investing. 

That change, he said, blurs lines for users who open a finance app and find a casino.

Gambling is correlated with stress, debt distress

Leishman linked this trend to research that shows gambling correlates with higher levels of debt distress and personal bankruptcy. He said gambling “isn’t good for society” and argued that the rapid spread of online betting should concern policymakers and industry leaders. 

In the past, a person had to walk into a casino to place a bet; now, he said, anyone with a phone can gamble from the couch or the checkout line. The distance between everyday life and high‑risk wagering has collapsed into a few taps on an app, with push notifications and promotions designed to keep people engaged.

He accused parts of the crypto and fintech sector of not being honest about this direction. The industry “shouldn’t lie” about what it is building, he said, because many products marketed as tools for financial freedom depend on user losses and trading churn. 

He described two futures: one in which traditional banks continue to grow rich off customer deposits while providing little yield or transparency, and another in which fintech firms double down on prediction markets and sports betting as core revenue lines. In both cases, he argued, ordinary customers lose: they either watch their savings erode in low‑yield accounts or face rising odds of financial harm on betting‑style platforms.

Bitcoin banks can grow your money without gambling

As an alternative, Leishman framed bitcoin banking as a third path. He said bitcoin banks can allow wealth generation without gambling by pairing sound money with interest on cash and bitcoin balances.

“50 countries in the last 5 years have increased their regulatory friendliness to Bitcoin,” Leishman said.

In that model, clients can succeed through saving and prudent risk, not through repeated wagers on short‑term events. He pointed to growing institutional and sovereign interest in holding bitcoin as a sign that the asset is maturing into a reserve instrument. 

From his perspective, banks that integrate bitcoin in a conservative, savings‑focused way can oppose both the low‑yield status quo and the casino trend in fintech.

Leishman closed with a prediction that “all institutions will want to become bitcoin banks” as the asset gains broader acceptance. He argued that banks and fintech firms that align with bitcoin, proof‑of‑reserves, and straightforward savings products will stand apart from casino‑like competitors that depend on user losses. 

In his telling, the real promise of a “financial revolution” is not more ways to gamble from a phone, but a system in which money holds its value, deposits are verifiable, and people can pursue financial freedom without turning their lives into a series of bets.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 13:50

Even GOP Hawks Now Alarmed Over Iran War Fallout As 60-Days Hits Friday

Amid reports that Vice President JD Vance is very seriously questioning the White House's Iran War narrative along with the Pentagon's rosy and overly positive updates on how things are going, over in Congress there's growing alarm as Trump's Operation Epic Fury is set to hit the 60-day mark on Friday. 

Republicans no doubt want to wrap things up fast, however, the latest reports say the White House is preparing for an extended Hormuz blockade of at least 'months' longer, per fresh WSJ reporting. There now appears to be a significant shift among Republicans underway, given that the 1973 War Powers Resolution requires that a US president must terminate unauthorized military operations within 60 days of initiating them.

The stickers have started to appear: from a gas station in Texas, submitted by a ZH reader.

Congress must then certify a need for continued military force in the instance that the nation faces an imminent threat. Already several war power initiatives have been effectively blocked on the House and Senate sides. 

But amid the ongoing Hormuz Strait blockade, Americans - and thus their representatives in Congress, are increasingly wary of the coming economic blowback. As we featured earlier on Wednesday, the average price for a gallon of gasoline hit its highest level in four years on Tuesday as the cost of a barrel of oil remains elevated amid Trump's war of choice in the Middle East.

This has triggered talk among GOP leaders of the need to go ahead and vote on formal war authorization, even among the hawks. Below is a quick round-up of Congressional member quotes via Semafor:

Sen. Curtis: "It’s a big deal… There are a number of us having discussions about what that day means, what our response should be."

Sen. Collins: "Sixty days is a trigger that requires Congress to act."

Rep. Don Bacon: "We haven’t been doing combat over the last two weeks. I think it merits good discussion. In the end, I want us to finish the job."

Sen. Hawley: Rubio’s "been pretty careful to comply with the statute. My hope is they’ll notify us that they’re drawing down offensive operations."

Sen. Murkowski: "You’ve got to talk to us.” She warned that if that doesn’t happen, “you may see a change in the situation” in Congress.

Sen. Tillis: “This is going to be weeks or months away from resolution, and more likely the latter. So why not send a very clear signal to Iran" and authorize war for a 1 year?

And an unnamed GOP Senator is cited in the report as saying: "People cross some sort of threshold and start to be very uncomfortable with it. I am sensing restlessness among many of my colleagues."

New: The war in Iran has cost U.S. taxpayers $25 billion thus far, the Pentagon tells Congress

— John Hudson (@John_Hudson) April 29, 2026

The White House has been steadily hailing the "successful" US naval blockade of Iranian reports. Still, as Reuters spells out Tuesday, "High oil prices are a risk for Trump's fellow Republicans ahead of the midterm congressional elections in November." Brent crude hit briefly reached $119/barrel on Wednesday amid signs of escalation, poised to overtake prior Iran war highs.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 13:30

Al Gore Shifts On Global Warming: Time To Watch Out For A New Ice Age?

The rhetoric and predictions behind climate change "science" change so haphazardly, it's a sure sign that the entire field of study is fraudulent.  If the manufactured hysteria is not enough to clue people in, the failed predictions of Al Gore should do the trick.

Former Vice President Al Gore warned a Hollywood audience this week that a "Gulf Stream collapse" could occur within 25 years, leading to an abrupt and devastating new Ice Age.  

Mr. Gore, now 78, appeared at the inaugural Sustainability in Entertainment Honors event, co-hosted by The Hollywood Reporter and the Sustainable Entertainment Alliance at Hotel Bel-Air in Los Angeles. He participated in a keynote conversation with actor Bradley Whitford of “The West Wing,” timed to the 20th anniversary of “An Inconvenient Truth.”

Gore invoked the scenario depicted in the 2004 disaster film “The Day After Tomorrow”, saying a shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, commonly called the Gulf Stream, is “a very real threat within the next 25 years.”

“That movie that I mentioned, ‘The Day After’ about the Gulf Stream shutting down, well, this morning in one of the English newspapers is a whole big article summarizing the recent dire warnings of the scientists who found yet more confirmatory information..."

The claim is related to Gore's assertion that ice cap melt will disrupt global oceans volumes and salinity, leading to a a change in the gulf stream and the distribution of heat to higher latitudes.  However, Gore's predictions (and the predictions of the scientists he cites) on ice melt have been widely debunked.  

In a 2009 speech at the Copenhagen Climate Conference, Mr. Gore cited researchers who he said projected a 75% chance the Arctic could be nearly ice-free during some summer months within five to seven years — a forecast that did not materialize. The researcher he cited, Naval Postgraduate School professor Wieslaw Maslowski, said afterward that he did not know how the 75% figure had been arrived at.

In reality, the kind of ice melt Al Gore warns about is projected to take centuries or even thousands of years, causing millimeters per year of ocean rise which is barely noticeable and not catastrophic.  It is interesting, though, that Gore has jumped on the idea of a new Ice Age, given the numerous doomsday prediction by climate scientists over the decades are now proving frivolous.  

The truth is, the Earth has been far warmer (and rarely colder) than temperatures are today.  Global warming science relies on a rigged data window:  The temperature history that "experts" use only goes back to the 1880s.  This is a tiny sliver of the Earths atmospheric history that is completely inadequate to understanding climate change, which is a natural process, not man-made.  

There is also no concrete evidence supporting the claim of correlation or causation of carbon emissions to global warming.  The data over millions of years simply does not match.

The climate change grift is a creation of the Club of Rome from the 1970s to the 1990s.  It was a UN associated group of prominent elites which sought to fabricate a rationale for global governance.  What they came up with was "global environmental disaster" as a way to motivate the populace to accept more centralized control of industry, trade and energy. 

Al Gore is a long time member of the Club of Rome, according to the groups own documentation.  He often cites the Club of Rome's 1972 report "Limits Of Growth" as a basis for his ideological beliefs.  

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 13:10

US To Issue Limited Passports With Trump's Image For America's 250th Anniversary

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. State Department announced on April 28 that it will release limited-edition passports featuring a picture of President Donald Trump to commemorate America’s 250th anniversary of independence.

State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott said in a statement to multiple news outlets that the department would release “a limited number of specially designed U.S. passports to commemorate this historic occasion” in July, but did not specify how many would be issued.

“These passports will feature customized artwork and enhanced imagery while maintaining the same security features that make the U.S. passport the most secure documents in the world,” Pigott said.

The White House posted a mockup of the limited-edition passport on social media, which shows the interior page featuring an image of Trump and his signature in gold, while the back cover displays the “Declaration of Independence” painting by John Trumbull.

“Patriot passport unlocked. Limited edition. Stamped for America 250,” the White House said in the X post.

The only presidents featured in current U.S. passports are in a double-page depiction of Mount Rushmore in South Dakota—George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln.

Other depictions include the Statue of Liberty, the Liberty Bell and Independence Hall in Philadelphia, and scenes of the Great Plains, mountains, and islands. Current passports also contain quotations from Martin Luther King Jr. as well as Presidents Washington, Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, and Dwight Eisenhower.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 12:50

AI Agent Deletes Startup's Database In 9 Seconds, Founder Says

Authored by Jason Nelson via Decrypt.co,

• PocketOS founder Jeremy Crane claims a Cursor agent running Anthropic’s Claude Opus deleted his company’s production database and backups in nine seconds.

• Crane said the AI later produced a written explanation admitting it violated multiple safety rules.

• The incident raises questions about AI coding tools, Railway’s infrastructure design, and safeguards around destructive API actions.

A software company founder claims an AI coding agent destroyed his firm’s production database, then copped to the mistake and explained how it happened, demonstrating the potential danger of entrusting sensitive access and materials to automated bots.

Jeremy Crane, founder of PocketOS—a software platform used by car rental operators to manage reservations, payments, and vehicle tracking—said in a viral post on X that a Cursor agent running Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 encountered a credential mismatch while working on a routine task in a staging environment.

According to Crane, the agent tried to “fix” the issue by deleting a Railway database volume through a single GraphQL API call. He said the deletion took nine seconds and also wiped volume-level backups. PocketOS’s most recent recoverable backup was three months old, according to Crane.

“Yesterday afternoon, an AI coding agent—Cursor running Anthropic’s flagship Claude Opus 4.6—deleted our production database and all volume-level backups in a single API call to Railway, our infrastructure provider,” Crane wrote. “It took 9 seconds.”

An AI agent (Cursor + Claude Opus 4.6) deleted our production database in 9 seconds using a Railway API call with zero confirmation. Then, when asked why, the agent wrote this → https://t.co/BPLs15jvdM

— JER (@lifeof_jer) April 26, 2026

Crane said he asked the agent why it acted. It then produced what he described as a written “confession.”

“‘NEVER FUCKING GUESS!’” the agent wrote, apparently quoting some instruction that it disobeyed, according to screenshots shared by Crane.

“That’s exactly what I did. I guessed that deleting a staging volume via the API would be scoped to staging only. I didn’t verify. I didn’t check if the volume ID was shared across environments. I didn’t read Railway’s documentation on how volumes work across environments before running a destructive command.”

The AI acknowledged that its own rules prohibit destructive actions without user approval and admitted Crane never asked it to delete anything. It said it acted on its own to try and “fix” the credential mismatch and violated multiple principles, including guessing instead of verifying and failing to understand the consequences of its actions, according to Crane.

Cursor and Anthropic did not immediately respond to requests for comment by Decrypt.

Launched in 2020, PocketOS serves rental businesses that rely on the software for reservations, customer records, and payments. Crane said some customers were handling Saturday morning vehicle pickups without reservation records due to the mishap.

“I have spent the entire day helping them reconstruct their bookings from Stripe payment histories, calendar integrations, and email confirmations,” Crane wrote.

“Every single one of them is doing emergency manual work because of a 9-second API call.”

PocketOS was able to restore operations using a three-month-old backup recovered by Railway, after Founder Jake Cooper connected with Crane and attributed the longer delay to an internal support lapse.

“We recovered the data 30 minutes after I connected with Jer,” Cooper told Decrypt. He said a support engineer believed the issue was already being handled internally after Crane’s original outreach was shared in direct messages, causing the ticket to lapse for more than 24 hours.

Cooper said Railway maintains both user backups and disaster backups and described the incident as a “rogue customer AI” using a fully permissioned API token to call a legacy endpoint that lacked Railway’s “delayed delete” logic.

“We’ve since patched that endpoint to perform delayed deletes, restored the user’s data, and are working with Jer directly on potential improvements to the platform itself,” Cooper said.

While PocketOS was able to restore operations using a three-month-old backup recovered by Railway, Crane said that significant data gaps remain and that he has retained legal counsel.

“This isn’t a story about one bad agent or one bad API,” Crane wrote. “It’s about an entire industry building AI-agent integrations into production infrastructure faster than it’s building the safety architecture to make those integrations safe.”

PocketOS did not immediately respond to a request for comment by Decrypt.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 11:35

US Oil Exports Soar To New Record High As Inventories Tumble, SPR Drained Most Since October 2022

One week ago we lamented that the record oil inventory drawdown, which has seen over 250 million barrels drained from storage since the start of the war, has not led to higher oil prices (for those who missed it, Goldman forecast that global visible oil inventories are likely to reach record-low levels even in an optimistic scenario where Hormuz flows start to recover by the end of April).

Moments ago the already precarious inventory picture turned even more ominous after the DOE reported that Crude stocks tumbled by a whopping 6.234 million barrels, far more than the 190K draw expected. The huge decline on US crude stockpiles was the largest draw since early February. It took nationwide storage numbers to around 459.5 million barrels. 

But it wasn't just crude: all other products drew as well:

• Crude -6.234MM, Exp. -190K, and much bigger than the 1.8-million-barrel decrease seen by the API on Tuesday
• Gasoline -6.075MM
• Distillates -4.494MM
• Cushing -796K

Gasoline declines in the middle of their predicted range at 6.1 million barrels. That’s the biggest draw since earlier in April, but the bigger story is total supplies falling to their lowest since December. Seasonally, stocks are at their lowest since 2014. Gasoline futures got a nice bump on this, extending their gains to new intraday highs, though the big story, as ever, is the Strait of Hormuz.

Visually

Since the war started, Crude stocks had risen significantly, while gasoline inventories have seen non-stop draws. However, oil has now also inflected lower as it too starts to draw, painting an ominous picture for US gasoline prices which are already at multi-year highs.

The big draw in distillate stocks - the largest since March 2025 - came from the Gulf Coast. That’s now below seasonal levels from 2022 in that region, when global diesel supplies were strained by the war in Ukraine.  Distillate exports out of the US ticked down nominally last week, but they remain pretty elevated, near 1.6 million barrels a day for the fourth straight week as the US once again becomes a key supplier of diesel to the rest of the world.

Stocks of jet fuel, which has been more stressed than nearly every other refined product, ticked up marginally as the US produced the most of the fuel since July 4, 2024, which is a key travel period. In the Gulf Coast, more of the fuel was produced than any time on record.

Despite the big drop in inventories, which also saw the second largest drain in Cushing stocks since the start of the war (and third largest in 2026) dragging total Cushing stocks back under 30mm...

... total US production rose by just 1 barrell/day in the past week to 13.586 million b/d.

Adding insult to injury, the drop in commercial stocks was compounded by a huge 7.121 mm barrel drawdown from the SPR, the biggest since October 2022.

And while US consumers are now facing the highest gas prices in years, at least US producers are rolling in the profits: US exports just hit a new record high as the Iran war sends overseas buyers hunting for replacements to Middle Eastern oil.

The surge in the volatile weekly crude exports figure helped send overall shipments of US oil and fuel abroad to a fresh record high above 14 million barrels a day.

As US crude exports skyrocketed, imports declined, falling to around 5.75 million barrels per day. Most notably, imports into the East Coast hit an all-time low. The region is thirsty for barrels and even imported crude from the US Gulf Coast last week thanks to a shipping waiver signed by President Donald Trump. 

Crude imports from five key Latin American producers slipped in the week ended April 24, dropping by one-fifth to average 893,000 barrels a day. Increased inflows from Mexico, Colombia and Ecuador were more than offset by drops in imports from Brazil and Venezuela. No crude was imported from Brazil for the first time since November.

While it didn't actually need the boost, having soared earlier in the day on continued indefinite Hormuz closure, WTI Crude rose above $105 the highest in two weeks, and up $6 on the day...

... while Brent is about to surpass its post-war highs.

And speaking of gasoline, the four-week average of gasoline demand rose to 8.9 million barrels a day, which is in-line with regular summer driving trends. Concerns of higher gasoline prices -- and $4 gas -- does not yet seem to be reflected in the demand numbers, with the implied demand figure at its highest seasonal level since 2019.

Meanwhile, US refinery runs bounced back and are back above 16 million barrels a day. Oil processing rose despite a small decrease on the Gulf Coast, where Valero continues to attempt a full restart of its Port Arthur, Texas, refinery following a fire in March. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 11:19

US Sanctions 35 Individuals, Entities To Dismantle Iran's Shadow Banking

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Treasury Department on April 28 imposed sanctions on 35 individuals and entities accused of running Iran’s secret shadow banking network.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks during a press briefing in the Brady Briefing Room at the White House in Washington, on April 15, 2026. Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

Treasury has accused the network of transferring tens of billions of dollars to help Iran dodge U.S. sanctions and finance terrorism.

The Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control is sanctioning a network of shell companies, exchange houses, and operators connected to Iranian banks, such as Shahr Bank, that have enabled the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other Iran-backed armed forces to gain access to the international financial system.

U.S. officials said the networks facilitate payments for illicit Iranian oil sales, purchases of missile components, and transfers to Tehran’s terrorist proxies.

“Iran’s shadow banking system serves as a critical financial lifeline for its armed forces, enabling activities that disrupt global trade and fuel violence across the Middle East,” Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said in a statement.

“Illicit funds funneled through this network support the regime’s ongoing terrorist operations, posing a direct threat to U.S. personnel, regional allies, and the global economy. Financial institutions are on notice: Any institution that facilitates or engages with these networks is at risk of severe consequences.”

Those targeted on Tuesday include the Farab Soroush Afagh Qeshm Company, described as overseeing fund movements for Shahr Bank’s clients through foreign front companies. Sorayya Mehri Hajibaba, an employee and foreign exchange expert, was sanctioned for facilitating transfers since at least mid-2023. And Seyyed Mohammed Mehdi Al Ghafur, an Iran-based shadow banking official, was targeted for laundering money on behalf of Shahr Bank via exchange houses.

The action also included the previously sanctioned HMS Trading FZE, along with its Iran-based sister company Tejarat Hermes Energy Qeshm Company. UK-based Shuqun LTD and its owner, Janelyn Eusebio Emperador, drew sanctions for transferring more than $70 million in payments for Iranian crude oil and distillates through 2024 on behalf of the National Iranian Oil Co. Emperador also controls Sanovo LTD and Qianza LTD.

Additional rahbar companies, which oversee shell company networks to process payments tied to Iran’s imports and exports and are linked to major Iranian banks, received sanction designations for operating in the financial sector.

The Treasury also issued new guidance threatening sanctions for entities that make “toll” payments to the Iranian regime or the IRGC in exchange for traversing the Strait of Hormuz.

Conducted under the Treasury’s “Operation Economic Fury,” the move follows earlier sanction efforts, with Bessent saying on Monday that doing business with sanctioned Iranian airlines could mean U.S. sanctions, as he called on foreign governments to block support services for those aircraft as commercial flights resume from Tehran.

The Treasury Department on April 24 sanctioned a Chinese refinery and 40 shipping firms and vessels found to be providing a lifeline to the Iranian oil economy. This came after a March 20 announcement by the United States that it had sanctioned entities it says are tied to the petroleum trade between Iran and China.

Since February 2025, the United States has sanctioned approximately 1,000 Iran-linked persons, vessels, and aircraft in its maximum-pressure campaign.

Sanctions were levied under Executive Order 13902, targeting Iran’s financial sector, and under Executive Order 13224, for counterterrorism. They bar all property of the designated parties under U.S. jurisdiction and prohibit U.S. persons from most dealings with them. Foreign parties also risk penalties for causing violations or evading the rules.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 11:15