Individual Economists

NATO Mulls 'Preemptive Strike' Against Russia's Hybrid Warfare, Claims 'More Aggression' Needed

Zero Hedge -

NATO Mulls 'Preemptive Strike' Against Russia's Hybrid Warfare, Claims 'More Aggression' Needed

At a moment Washington under President Trump is busy issuing rare calls for restraint, de-escalation, and to enact a peace deal in Ukraine, a top NATO commander says the conflict needs more aggression by the Western military alliance directly against Russia.

Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, chair of NATO’s Military Committee, has told Financial Times as part of a fresh report that NATO is currently mulling more proactive measures in response to Russia’s escalating hybrid warfare. The report cites an alleged rise in Russian-backed cyberattacks, sabotage operations and airspace violations over Europe - which NATO could mirror and more, as any potential "pre-emptive strike" on Russian targets would be justified.

Adm. Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, via ANSA English

"We are studying everything… On cyber, we are kind of reactive," Dragone said. "Being more aggressive or being proactive instead of reactive is something that we are thinking about."

That's when he explained his view that a "pre-emptive strike" could under certain circumstances and context be classified as a defensive action. "It is further away from our normal way of thinking and behavior," he conceded.

"Being more aggressive compared with the [aggressiveness] of our counterpart could be an option" - but he said that the questions that remain are: "legal framework, jurisdictional framework, who is going to do this?"

Multiple diplomats and officials from Eastern European and Baltic states are calling for this more proactive stance, or a less merely 'reactive' approach, to make Moscow feel real pain.

"If all we do is continue being reactive, we just invite Russia to keep trying, keep hurting us," one Baltic diplomat was quoted in the FT as complaining.

"Hybrid warfare is asymmetric – it costs them little, and us a lot. We need to be more inventive," the diplomat said.

And yet, there already have been years of covert sabotage operations in place, aimed at Russia and overseen by the West. These efforts, some which long ago were exposed in mainstream publications, are a large reason of why there's been constant escalation of the Ukraine war. 

This has in turn resulted in escalation of nuclear rhetoric and threats between Russia and the West. But the temperature needs to be drastically turned down, but these latest comments by the chair of NATO's Military Committee will only do the opposite.

Young men are continuing to pay the price on the battlefield, even as a peace process slowly and painfully plays out. Reuters has belatedly admitted and documented the immense losses suffered by Ukraine's military:

Pavlo Broshkov had high hopes when he joined the Ukrainian army in March as a fresh-faced recruit eager to defend his country and earn a bumper bonus to buy a home for his wife and baby daughter.

Three months later, the 20-year-old lay broken and prone on the battlefield, his dreams in tatters.

Broshkov is among hundreds of 18 to 24-year-olds who have volunteered to fight on the front lines this year, lured by generous pay and perks in a national youth recruitment drive designed to breathe fresh life into Ukraine's aged and exhausted armed forces of about one million.

Meanwhile, EU nations are finding any way possible to keep up the conflict instead of finding true compromise...

The Kremlin has hit back against the aforementioned remarks of Adm. Dragone, with Kremlin spokesperson Maria Zakharova calling Dragone's remarks "an extremely irresponsible step, indicating the readiness of the alliance to continue to move toward escalation."

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 14:20

Trump Says Pause On Asylum Decisions Will Be In Place For 'A Long Time'

Zero Hedge -

Trump Says Pause On Asylum Decisions Will Be In Place For 'A Long Time'

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump said on Nov. 30 that the freeze on asylum decisions, which was imposed following the shooting of two National Guard members in Washington, will likely be in place indefinitely.

Asylum seekers listen to UNHCR workers at the entrance of Mexico's Refugee Help Commission and UNHCR offices in Tijuana, Baja California state, Mexico on Jan. 24, 2025. Guillermo Arias/AFP via Getty Images

His comments came after U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services Director Joseph B. Edlow announced that the agency has halted all asylum decisions until it can ensure that “every alien is vetted and screened to the maximum degree possible.”

When asked about how long the administration intends to pause asylum decisions, Trump said the measure has “no time limit” and could extend for “a long time.”

“We don’t want those people. We have enough problems,” the president told reporters aboard Air Force One.

Trump said he was referring to “people from different countries that are not friendly to us,” and from “countries that are out of control themselves,” pointing to Somalia as one example.

When asked if there is a list of countries whose nationals would face asylum restrictions in the United States, Trump referred to the 19 nations labeled by his administration as “countries of identified concern.”

“I don’t think they are all third world, but in many cases they are third world. They are not good countries. They are very crime-ridden countries,” he added. “And we frankly, don’t need their people coming into our country telling us what to do.”

The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services announced the pause after it stopped processing all immigration requests relating to Afghan nationals pending further review of security and vetting protocols.

For an immigrant to be eligible for asylum, the applicant must “have a fear of persecution due to their race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or their inclusion in a particular social group,” according to the Refugee Council USA.

The move came in the wake of the Nov. 26 shooting of two National Guard members, one killed and the other critically injured, near the White House, which authorities say was carried out by an Afghan national who entered the United States in September 2021 through Operation Allies Welcome, the Biden-era resettlement program launched after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Trump has denounced the shooting as an “act of hatred” and vowed to “permanently pause migration from all Third World countries” to allow for the U.S. system’s full recovery.

He said Nov. 27 that his administration would suspend all federal benefits and subsidies to noncitizens, denaturalize immigrants who undermine domestic tranquility, and deport any foreigners deemed to be “a public charge, security risk, or non-compatible with Western civilization.”

“These goals will be pursued with the aim of achieving a major reduction in illegal and disruptive populations, including those admitted through an unauthorized and illegal autopen approval process,” Trump stated on Truth Social. “Only REVERSE MIGRATION can fully cure this situation.”

Jacki Thrapp contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 14:00

UK Girl Barred From School Over Imprisoned Mother's 'Racist' Tweet

Zero Hedge -

UK Girl Barred From School Over Imprisoned Mother's 'Racist' Tweet

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

Lucy Connolly, the mother jailed for 31 months over a single anti-mass immigration tweet int 2024, has revealed that her 13-year-old daughter Edie has been blocked from starting at a new school after the headteacher discovered her mother’s identity and conviction, citing that “racism doesn’t go down well” in their institution.

The devastating rejection, detailed in a GB News interview, sees Connolly, now free after over a year in prison, blast the decision as “outrageous discrimination” against her innocent child for her own political views.

If true, the development represents yet another another grim chapter in Britain’s speech gulag, where 10,000 were arrested last year for social media posts under vague hate speech laws.

Connolly told GB News “They said, ‘we’re going to be honest with you, the headteacher found out about who you were and put a block on the move and racism doesn’t go down well in their school’.”

The family had secured a six-week trial placement for Edie, desperate for stability after months of upheaval, but the discovery of Connolly’s August 2024 sentence for her tweet in the wake of the murder of three young girls in Southport by a second generation Rwandan migrant, led to an abrupt cancellation.

She claims that the headteacher of the school in question told the family the placement would be “too difficult” given the conviction.

“A headteacher at another local school deemed it fit to discriminate against my child because of my political views,” Connolly claimed.

Connolly fumed, “It’s outrageous. My daughter is being punished for my views. She’s innocent, and now she’s the one suffering,” adding “In what world is this ok?”

Connolly’s nightmare began in early August last year, when she was sentenced to 31 months for her tweet, which read “Mass deportation now, set fire to all the f***ing hotels full of the bastards for all I care.”

Judge Melbourne Inman KC called it “grossly offensive,” imposing the maximum under the Public Order Act for “stirring up racial hatred”—despite no direct threats and Connolly’s lack of priors as a childminder.

The punishment was clearly disproportionately severe and set a dangerous precedent, with the likes of former Prime Minister Liz Truss warning it would only fuel “radicalisation.”

Connolly’s fate can be contrasted with freed agitators like Labour councillor Ricky Jones, who incited a call to “cut their throats” against critics of mass migration, yet ultimately ended up with nothing more than a slap on the wrist.

Jones faced no custody while Connolly rotted, her appeal dismissed despite widespread outrage.

Edie Connolly’s school block is another instant of the human cost of Britain’s “speech gulag,” where 10,000 were arrested last year for “offensive” online content under the Communications Act and Online Safety Act.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 13:20

Vaccine Stocks Drop After FDA Memo Links COVID Shots To Child Deaths

Zero Hedge -

Vaccine Stocks Drop After FDA Memo Links COVID Shots To Child Deaths

Vaccine stocks slumped Monday after an explosive memo from FDA vaccine chief Vinay Prasad surfaced late Friday, signaling the agency is preparing to roll out tough restrictions on new vaccines for children. Prasad described a "profound revelation" linking Covid shots to at least ten deaths in children. 

By late morning, Vaccine makers dropped on the memo: Moderna -6%, BioNTech -4.3%, Novavax -4%, Vaxcyte -6.6%.

"This is a profound revelation," Prasad wrote in the memo. "For the first time, the US FDA will acknowledge that COVID-19 vaccines have killed American children."

He added, "It is horrifying to consider that the US vaccine regulation, including our actions, may have harmed more children than we saved. This requires humility and introspection."

Wall Street analysts weighed in on the memo, and all agreed it introduces a new regulatory overhang for vaccine stocks.

Here's what the research desks told clients:

William Blair, Myles R. Minter (rates the MRNA market perform)

  • "Our interpretation of the memo is that CBER will focus its efforts on the younger 12- to 24-year-old male population for newly approved Covid-19 vaccines where the myocarditis risk is highest"

  • If new regulatory restrictions were to be implemented in the higher myocarditis risk population, analysts see further headwinds toward Moderna's declining Covid-19 franchise "alongside further negative sentiment that this memo and subsequent actions may generate"

  • Analyst says Pfizer, BioNTech, Novavax and Sanofi could also be impacted

  • "The memo also indicates several upcoming reforms to the CBER vaccine regulatory pathway, most notably the "demand" for pre- market randomized trials assessing clinical endpoints, not just immunogenicity, for most new vaccine products"

Mizuho, Salim Syed (rates PCVX outperform)

  • Says the memo notes "pneumonia vaccine makers will have to show their products reduce pneumonia (at least in the post- market setting), and not merely generate antibody titers"

  • However, "what investors are missing here is this is already in-line with the current standard" and poses no material change to Vaxcyte

Cantor, Carter Gould (rates PCVX overweight)

  • Says not surprised to see selloff in PCVX shares "on the back of the return of perceived regulatory risk after a period of relative calm, particularly with key data weighted to late 2026"

  • However, analyst  says there wasn't much in the actual memo language on pneumococcal vaccines (PCVs) that's concerning

  • Reminds investors that "this all needs to continue to be viewed in the context of the likely timelines for VAX-31 adult and infants efforts against the backdrop of the time remaining in the current administration's term"

  • "We appreciate that there's plenty within the memo that's controversial or worrisome regarding Covid-19 vaccine policy, but the actual language on PCVs shows little evolution vs. prior guidance"

Leerink Partners, Mani Foroohar (rates MRNA underperform)

  • Says the memo's inflammatory tone highlights how agency policy/communications continue to contribute to vaccine skepticism and US vaccination rate decline

  • "We view this as a continued negative for mRNA vaccine manufacturers in our coverage– especially as it relates to Moderna's recently updated short-to-mid-term revenue guidance"

The memo comes months after the Trump administration signaled it would link Covid shots to children's deaths. Remember, anyone who questioned the vaccines in the early days of the pandemic was demonized by Democrats and "trust the science" regime, which unleashed big-tech and state-sponsored censorship cartel against anyone asking questions.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 12:45

Retail Workers Currently Earning 51.6% Less Than Needed To Afford Rent: Report

Zero Hedge -

Retail Workers Currently Earning 51.6% Less Than Needed To Afford Rent: Report

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

An American retail worker earns 51.6 percent less than the amount required to afford a typical rental apartment, real estate brokerage Redfin said in a statement released on Nov. 26.

A rent sign seen in Maryland on Nov. 12, 2023. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

“The typical retail worker in America earns $34,436 per year,” the company said.

“A renter would need to earn $71,172 to afford the typical apartment, which costs $1,779 per month.”

This signifies a shortfall of $36,736 needed to afford an apartment, even though overall affordability has improved slightly in recent years.

In Cleveland, a typical retail worker earns 32.9 percent less than needed to afford a residence, the smallest shortfall among 40 metropolitan areas analyzed by the brokerage. This was followed by St. Louis, San Antonio, Kansas City, and Milwaukee. These places have some of the lowest rents in the country.

In contrast, the shortfall was highest in New York, where a retail worker earned 71 percent less. This was followed by Boston, San Jose, Miami, and San Diego. These locations rank among the most expensive rental locations.

Besides the rent struggle, the U.S. retail sector is also seeing large layoffs.

Retailers have announced 88,664 job cuts through October this year, a 145 percent jump compared to the same period last year, according to a Nov. 6 report by outplacement company Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Incomes and Rent Growth

“As the cost of living has increased, so have the sacrifices renters must make to afford a place to live,” Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather said.

However, “the good news is rents are no longer rising as fast as they were during the pandemic, so rental affordability has actually improved slightly in recent years,” Fairweather added.

The average rent in a primary city residence grew by almost 3.4 percent between September 2024 and 2025, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

A Nov. 19 report from real estate marketplace Zillow noted that U.S. incomes grew faster than asking rents this year amid a general slowdown in rent growth.

“Affordability is improving most significantly in markets where rents have fallen from year-ago levels, including Austin (where the typical asking rent is down 3.1 percent annually), Denver (-2.1 percent), San Antonio (-0.8 percent), and Phoenix (-0.7 percent),” the report said.

“Though incomes have understandably outpaced rents in markets where rent growth has turned negative, affordability improvements have even reached metros where rent growth remains strong.”

A monthly rental budget of $2,000 will net different types of properties based on the region, according to a Nov. 10 report from online rental marketplace Apartments.

“Renters in smaller cities like Memphis, Buffalo, and Indianapolis can afford three-bedroom apartments within a $2,000 budget, while in big cities like Boston, Los Angeles, and Seattle, that same budget often only covers a studio,” it said.

Meanwhile, there have been proposals to freeze the amount that can be charged on rental properties.

Zohran Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist who won the New York City mayoral race this month, proposed a rent freeze during his campaign. Washington state, Oregon, and California have already implemented statewide rent control.

Supporters of rent-freeze policies argue that such measures are required to ease the burden on American families. However, critics warn that pursuing these policies could deter investment in the rental market, further exacerbating the issue in the long run.

A survey of The Epoch Times readers conducted on Oct. 29 found that most opposed rent-freeze measures and advocated pursuing market solutions.

Nearly 40 percent suggested that builders cut costs to reduce the housing shortage, which could then bring down rents.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 12:20

The Return of Cisco

The Big Picture -

 

 

I’ve never shared this story before, but since we are at a milestone, I might as well…

February 2000: I was working as a strategist for a brokerage firm. My buddy Anthony had an international clientele, all deeply invested in US tech companies. His biggest client was flying in from the Middle East for a combination New York City shopping trip/portfolio review.

His biggest position? Cisco (CSCO). Millions of shares worth 10s of millions of dollars…

I did not cover the company (I was not an analyst). But I had views on the networking and telecom sector; I believed everything in the “George Gilder Telecosm” was a disaster waiting to happen. Gilder’s (expensive) newsletter correctly identified budding technology trends, but also possessed awful timing. When his telecoms portfolio plummeted by about 90%, he had the nerve to actually say, “I don’t do price.” 1

But I digress.

Prepping for the meeting, I reached out to Paul Sagawa of Alliance Bernstein. In the 1990s, Sagawa was the axe on Cisco; for nearly two decades, he correctly identified the upside for the networking firm. But by 1999, Sagawa changed his tune. Cisco had become a giant market leader but was increasingly moving towards vendor financing. In the late 1980s, less than 5% of Cisco’s clients used the company’s own financing arm; a decade later, it was 90+%. “Buy our valuable cutting-edge technology, we only need your flimsy, VC-backed start-up to sign a promise to pay for it (eventually).”

Sagawa correctly saw this as a budding disaster.

The market isn’t kind to stock bulls when they reverse course and turn bearish.2 Throughout 1999, he went from a stock analyst superstar to a persona non grata. His fall from grace was vindicated twelve months later, but before the deluge, he was somewhat of an outcast.

My firm was not even a Bernstein client; I took a chance and called the number listed on his most recent CSCO research. To my surprise, he not only answered the call but also took the time to explain the situation to me for an hour.  Sagawa provided the hard data and details for me to discuss the downside of Cisco with Anthony’s client, loaded with all the ammunition needed.

At the meeting, I started with the broadest overview: The stock was up ~3,700% since its IPO. The Sheik sat impassively as he took it all in. I drilled down into the details, the vendor financing, the changing technology landscape. I didn’t feel like I was making any headway, and didn’t want to badger him. The last thing I said was “You’ve made immense returns in this name, and we are years into this bull market; my best guess is there’s more downside risk than upside potential in the high-flying names – and Cisco is the poster child.”

I’m not a good salesman; I gave it my best shot, but didn’t expect much. I said my thanks and left.

I was surprised a few months later when Anthony came into my office with a little thank-you gift for the effort. “The sheik sold half, he is thrilled with us.” At the time, Cisco had already fallen 35% on its way to dropping ~90%.

I had written about the Fortune Cisco cover repeatedly – in 2000, then again years later. It’s now a cautionary chapter in How Not to Invest.

 

Here we are, 25 years later, and CSCO has perked up. Quantum computing, AI, and Cybersecurity have the stock rallying 28.9% this year. It has not quite reached $80.06, the dotcom peak in March 2000, but it is finally above the level where that infamous cover story (“No matter how you cut it, you’ve got to own Cisco”) came out.

The key lesson is that media coverage – of any stock, asset class, or investment – should never be a substitute for your own thinking.

 

 

Source:
There’s Something About Cisco
By Andy Serwer, Irene Gashurov, Angela Key
FORTUNE Magazine, May 15, 2000

 

Previously:
2000: “No matter how you cut it, you’ve got to own Cisco” (May 15, 2023)

Can Anyone Catch Nokia? (October 26, 2022)

Why the Apple Store Will Fail (May 20, 2021)

Nobody Knows Nuthin’ (May 5, 2016)

How News Looks When Its Old (October 29, 2021)

Predictions and Forecasts

 

 

__________

1. “Most of the companies listed have lost at least 90 percent of their value over the past two years, if they’re even in business anymore.” –Wired

2. I experienced this firsthand with EMC…

 

~~~

I discuss the trouble with the CSCO cover in How Not to Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth―and how to avoid them.”

Its on sale at Amazon Cyber Monday Deal: $18.01

 

 

 

The post The Return of Cisco appeared first on The Big Picture.

Hassett Odds Soar As Trump Confirms He's Made Decision On Next Fed Chair

Zero Hedge -

Hassett Odds Soar As Trump Confirms He's Made Decision On Next Fed Chair

President Donald Trump said on Nov. 30 that he has already decided on his pick to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, adding that an announcement is forthcoming, but declining to identify his nominee.

“I know who I am going to pick, yeah,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on his way back from Florida to Washington on Sunday.

When asked whether he would nominate National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, the current frontrunner to replace Powell according to betting markets, Trump smiled and replied, “I’m not going to tell you, we’ll be announcing it.”

Hassett now has an 75% chance of getting the nomination according to prediction market Polymarket. Former Fed Gov. Kevin Warsh is at 12% with Fed Gov. Christopher Waller down to 8%.

Source: Polymarket

Earlier Sunday, Hassett, on CBS' "Face The Nation," said the market's reaction to reports that Trump was close to a pick is a positive sign.

“Once it became clear that the president’s getting closer to make a decision, the markets really celebrated, interest rates went down, we had one of our best Treasury auctions ever,” Hassett said on Fox.

“I think that the market expects that there’s going to be a new person at the Fed, and they expect that President Trump’s going to pick a new one. And if he picks me, I'd be happy to serve.”

Hassett, who has strongly defended Trump's economic policies, including tariffs and interest rates, said he would be happy to serve as Fed chief if Trump nominated him.

“I’m really honored to be amongst a group of really great candidates,” Hassett told CBS.

“I think that the American people could expect President Trump to pick somebody who’s going to help them, you know, have cheaper car loans and easier access to mortgages at lower rates.”

We do note that rates are higher this morning after Trump's comments (and the yield curve is steeper - policy error), but there are a lot of moving parts after the long weekend (from mixed manufacturing data to a hawkish BoJ) impacting markets.

Market-implied odds have soared to fully price in a rate-cut in December...

Finally, we note that Hassett's financial disclosure reveals at least a seven‑figure Coinbase stake and compensation for serving on the exchange’s Academic and Regulatory Advisory Council, placing him unusually close to the crypto industry for a potential Fed chair.​

Still, crypto has been burned before by reading too much into “crypto‑literate” resumes. Gary Gensler arrived at the Securities and Exchange Commission with MIT blockchain courses under his belt, but went on to preside over a wave of high‑profile enforcement actions, some of which critics branded as “Operation Chokepoint 2.0.”

A Hassett-led Fed might be more open to experimentation and less reflexively hostile to bank‑crypto activity. Still, the institution’s mandate on financial stability means markets should not assume a one‑way bet on deregulation.​

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 12:00

ZeroHedge Store - Cyber Monday Is Here (Last Chance!)

Zero Hedge -

ZeroHedge Store - Cyber Monday Is Here (Last Chance!)

*  *  * It's now Cyber Monday. Prices go back up at midnight!

After launching ZeroHedge store a year ago, we've been humbled by the overwhelming response. Between die-hard fans of IQ Biologix supplements, ZeroHedge gear, Rancher-Direct clean meats, hand-made knives, and more - your support is greatly appreciated. 

So since everyone else on the planet is doing a Black Friday / Cyber Monday promotion, we did one too. Until Monday at midnight: 

IQ Biologix supplements are 50% off - if you've been on the fence, go for it. If you're a regular, time to stock up. 

Multitools are also 50% off - the perfect stocking stuffers. 

ZeroHedge hats and other gear is 40% off.

Anza Knives (including limited run) and ReadyWise products are 30% off

And finally, water filters are 25% off. 

We don't sell cheap Temu junk you don't need. Our goal is the opposite: to offer you supplies and gear that sharpen your mind, strengthen your body, protect you, and offer ZH gear that makes it clear to those who know that you're not part of the herd. You're not pumped with vaccines, fake meat, SSRIs, and a stream of propaganda that's driving the left into daily epic meltdowns.

What readers have been buying this weekend: 

ZeroHedge Waxed Canvas Hat

ZeroHedge Multitool

IQ Astaxanthin - Ultimate Antioxidant

IQ Colostrum

Limited Edition ZH Waxed Canvas Hat

IQ Resveratrol

IQ Peak Focus

IQ Brain Rescue

IQ Male Enhancement

Free shipping on orders over $500!

Thank you for your support 

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 11:55

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below 2022 Peak

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below 2022 Peak

Excerpt:
It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers!

In the September Case-Shiller house price index released last Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 78% above the bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 9.4% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 0.9% above the bubble peak.

People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $447,000 today adjusted for inflation (49% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.

The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.
...
Real House PricesThe second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).

In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 3.0% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 3.2% below the recent peak in 2022.

Both the real National index and the Comp-20 index decreased in August. The real National index has decreased for 9 consecutive months.

It has now been 40 months since the real peak in house prices. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory)
There is much more in the article!

Strategy Sets Up $1.4 Billion Cash Reserve, Lifts Bitcoin Stash To 650,000BTC

Zero Hedge -

Strategy Sets Up $1.4 Billion Cash Reserve, Lifts Bitcoin Stash To 650,000BTC

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest public Bitcoin holder, is creating a $1.44 billion US dollar reserve to support dividend payments on its preferred stock and interest on its outstanding debt.

Strategy on Monday announced the establishment of a US dollar reserve funded through proceeds from the sale of Class A common stock under its at-the-market offering program.

“Strategy’s current intention is to maintain a USD Reserve in an amount sufficient to fund at least twelve months of its dividends, and Strategy intends to strengthen the USD Reserve over time, with the goal of ultimately covering 24 months or more of its dividends,” the company said.

Alongside the launch of the reserve, Strategy disclosed an additional purchase of 130 Bitcoin for $11.7 million, bringing its total holdings to a symbolic value of 650,000 BTC, acquired for $48.38 billion.

Notably, while MSTR has been in decline, the last few days have seen the preferreds bid...

The Strategy preferred now yields from 9% to nearly 13%, considerably above the 6% rate on preferred stock from major banks like Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase.

Primary means for funding dividends

According to the Strategy’s company update on Monday, its US dollar reserve will be the primary source of funding dividends paid to holders of its preferred stocks, debt and common equity.

The update details that the $1.44 billion reserve is 2.2% of Strategy’s enterprise value, 2.8% of equity value and 2.4% of Bitcoin value.

Strategy’s funding of the USD Reserve. Source: Strategy

“We believe this improves the quality and attractiveness of our preferreds, debt and common equity,” Strategy said, adding that it raised $1.44 billion in less than nine trading days by selling its common A stock MSTR.

USD reserve to complement BTC holdings

“Establishing a USD Reserve to complement our BTC Reserve marks the next step in our evolution,” Strategy founder Saylor said, adding that the new financial tool will better position the company to navigate short-term market volatility.

Strategy CEO and president Phong Le highlighted that the company’s latest BTC purchase — made in the past two weeks — brings its total holdings to 650,000 BTC, or about 3.1% of the 21 million BTC that will ever exist.

An excerpt from Strategy’s Form 8-K. Source: SEC

“In recognition of the important role we play in the broader Bitcoin ecosystem, and to further reinforce our commitment to our credit investors and shareholders, we have established a USD Reserve that currently covers 21 months of dividends,” Le noted.

Strategy lowers 2025 KPI targets

Alongside its reserve and 650,000 BTC holdings, Strategy has significantly lowered its KPI targets and corresponding assumptions for 2025 results.

According to the update, Strategy now expects its BTC yield to end the year between 22% and 26%, with a projected BTC price estimate of $85,000–$110,000 by Dec. 31.

Revised assumptions and corresponding results for 2025. Source: Strategy

The company has also significantly reduced its targeted BTC gains, cutting its previous expectation of $20 billion to a revised range of between $8.4 billion and $12.8 billion.

The revised target for operating income is between $7 billion and $9.5 billion, down from the originally projected $34 billion.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 11:40

Sky's The Limit

Zero Hedge -

Sky's The Limit

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

Major US indices closed high on Friday evening as trading resumed following the Thanksgiving holiday. The S&P500 was up 0.54%, the Dow up 0.61% and the NASDAQ up 0.65%, but US equity futures are pointed lower this morning and Asian equity markets are showing mixed performance. Bond yields are mostly higher. Yields on US 10s rose 2.1bps to 4.03% while yields on 2-year JGBs reached their highest level in 17 years after BOJ Governor Ueda hinted that he is seriously considering a rate hike this month.

Brent crude is up 1.20% in early trade following news that Ukrainian drones had struck two Russian ‘Shadow Fleet’ tankers bound for the Novorossiysk oil terminal in the Black Sea. The terminal itself was later struck by Ukrainian drones, prompting a halt in operations, while Moldova reported incursions of Russian drones into its own airspace in an apparent continuation of Russia’s ‘grey-zone’ tactics that has seen Russian drones violate the airspace of Poland, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Romania and the Baltic states in recent months.

NATO allies have stationed fighter jets in Poland under Operation Eastern Sentry that can be scrambled to shoot down Russian drones, but this is a high cost response to the very cheap probing of NATO’s defences that is being conducted by the Kremlin. This as the Wall Street Journal reports that ‘Russia Gains the Upper Hand in Drone Battle, Once Ukraine’s Forte’ and quotes a Ukrainian drone unit commander who says that Russia is receiving superior supply chain support from China than Ukraine is receiving from the United States and Europe combined.

Ukrainian officials met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Florida to progress talks to end the Russo-Ukrainian war. The Ukrainian delegation was missing erstwhile Zelenskyy Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak, who has resigned his position following anti-corruption raids on his home relating to investigations over illegal kickbacks in Ukraine’s energy sector. Rubio told journalists after the meeting that progress had been made but that there was still more work to be done.

Witkoff is set to travel to Moscow today to meet with President Putin to progress a deal. Yermak’s departure may have placed Zelenskyy further on the back foot in the bargaining process as his image is tarnished by whiffs of corruption at the heart of his government. President Trump speculated as much aboard Air Force One, where he told journalists that he thought there was a “good chance” of a deal to end the war being signed, but that the Ukrainian corruption scandal was “not helpful”.

While negotiations over the fate of Ukraine continue, another risk event for energy markets continues to unfold in Venezuela. President Trump took to Truth Social over the weekend to declare “THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY.” This comes following the largest US deployment of military assets to the region in decades and series of missile strikes on small boats thought to be engaged in drug smuggling.



The purpose of US pressure on Venezuela has very likely now expanded from enforcement action against drug trafficking to efforts toward regime change (see here for RaboResearch’s further thoughts). Donald Trump told journalists aboard Air Force Once that he had been in contact with Venezuelan President Maduro over the phone, but didn’t disclose details of the conversation. He had previously indicated that the US would soon begin land strikes in Venezuela. “If we can save lives, if we can do things the easy way that’s fine. If we have to do it the hard way, that’s fine too.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 11:25

France & UK Still Insist On Sending Troops To Ukraine, In Effort To Sabotage Trump Peace Plan

Zero Hedge -

France & UK Still Insist On Sending Troops To Ukraine, In Effort To Sabotage Trump Peace Plan

As we reported earlier, the important Miami meeting wherein American and Ukrainian delegations hammered out a revised ceasefire draft for some five hours on Sunday did not have European participation. But this is where the real deal-making is taking place. Trump envoy Steve Witkoff is en route to Moscow, where he's expected to meet with President Putin on Tuesday, in order to present where things stand on the peace plan.

The Miami meeting reportedly focused on where the new de facto border would be in the east, after the 19-point plan featured significant territorial concessions in the Donbass and Crimea. As for Europe, is still touting a "coalition of the willing" which are vowing ongoing military support to the Zelensky government.

At this moment, France and the United Kingdom especially are continuing to push for the deployment of troops from NATO-member states to Ukraine as part of their version of peace settlement, despite this being very obviously unacceptable to Moscow. 

Image source: British prime minister's office, 10 Downing St

Last week Politico reported that when US Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined a discussion involving the coalition of the willing via phone call, he made clear to all that the White House wants a peace agreement in place before committing to any long-term security guarantees for Kiev.

But UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer tried to push back, arguing that a "multinational force" would be essential for ensuring Ukraine’s future security.

Bloomberg then followed with a report saying that UK officials have already selected the military units they plan to deploy, based on several reconnaissance trips to Ukraine.

France's President Emmanuel Macron proposed that such troops could operate in the capital area or western regions of the country, far from the front lines. But this would flagrantly cross all Russia's red lines. NATO troops on its doorstep was key Putin's decision-making in launching the 'special military operation' in the first place.

It must be recalled that the original US-drafted 28-point peace plan, which leaked to the press and more recently was condensed down to 19 points, included an explicit prohibition on deploying NATO troops to Ukraine.

The European-proposed counter-plan, which was also quickly leaked to the media, greatly softened that stance and laid out that instead of a blanket ban, NATO would not "permanently station troops under its command in Ukraine in peacetime."

At a moment Trump's peace plan advances, and with Witkoff on his way to meet with President Putin, hawks in Europe are growing even more hawkish:

Such intentionally vague language leaves open the possibility of NATO troop rotations into Ukraine. The Kremlin has time and again said it would not tolerate this, and such a move would lead to direct war with the West.

Europe's plan also seeks to leave open a Ukrainian path to NATO, but this is also a sticking point which the US plan leaves out, given it would of course be dead on arrival if presented to Putin.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 11:05

Multiple Failures In Vetting Process Of Afghans, Says Tom Homan

Zero Hedge -

Multiple Failures In Vetting Process Of Afghans, Says Tom Homan

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

There has been a massive failure in the vetting process that allowed Afghan nationals to enter the United States under the Biden administration, border czar Tom Homan said in a Nov. 30 interview with Fox News.

When the United States withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021, the Biden administration initiated the Operation Allies Welcome program to resettle thousands of Afghan nationals in America, which included those who worked alongside U.S. authorities in Afghanistan over the previous two decades.

“It’s the biggest national security failure in the history of the nation,“ Homan said, noting that the DHS Inspector General came out with a report at the time stating multiple failures in the vetting process.

“People need to understand, in these third-world nations, they don’t have systems like we do. So, a lot of these Afghans, who did get here to get better, they had no identification at all. Not a single travel document, not one piece of identification. And we’re going to count on the people that run Afghanistan, the Taliban, to provide us any information who the bad guys were or who the good guys are? Certainly not.”

On Nov. 26, a gunman shot two West Virginia National Guard members. One of the victims has since died, while the second remains in critical condition. The suspected shooter was identified as 29-year-old Rahmanullah Lakanwal from Afghanistan, who entered the country as part of Operation Allies Welcome. In 2022, the operation was renamed Enduring Welcome.

More than 190,000 Afghan nationals were resettled in the United States as part of the effort, according to the State Department.

A 2022 report from the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS’s) Office of Inspector General, mentioned by Homan in the interview, said that the Biden-era DHS failed to fully vet some of the 80,000 Afghans allowed entry into the United States at the time.

An audit of 88,977 evacuee records inspected by authorities found that more than 11,000 recorded their birth date as Jan. 1. In addition, 7,800 had missing or invalid travel document numbers, the report said.

More than 36,000 records listed “facilitation document” as the travel document type, and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) was unable to define what the “facilitation document” was, according to the DHS.

The Epoch Times reached out to the DHS Office of Inspector General for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Inspector General Joseph V. Cuffari was confirmed by the Senate to his post in 2019 during the first Trump administration.

Following the attack on the two National Guard members, the State Department announced on Nov. 28 that it had “IMMEDIATELY paused visa issuance for individuals traveling on Afghan passports.”

On the same day, Citizenship and Immigration Services Director Joseph B. Edlow said in an X post that the agency had halted all asylum decisions “until we can ensure that every alien is vetted and screened to the maximum degree possible.”

President Donald Trump said the asylum restriction applies to 19 nations, which he had labeled as “countries of identified concern” via a presidential action in June. The list includes Afghanistan, Iran, Somalia, and Turkmenistan.

In the interview, Homan said approximately 10.5 million illegal immigrants had crossed into the United States under the previous administration.

This figure does not include the hundreds of thousands who came via the CHNV program and the more than 2 million known gotaways, he said.

CHNV was a Biden-era parole program for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans, while gotaways refers to illegal immigrants who evaded U.S. border patrol and law enforcement authorities after crossing the border.

Since the Afghans were allowed entry via government programs, there are at least photographs and fingerprints of some of these individuals, Homan said, adding that the government has no details on the millions of gotaways.

The current administration’s policies have ensured “the most secure border in the history of this nation,” Homan said.

“Now we know who’s coming, now we clear who’s coming. We don’t have 10,000, up to 12,000 people a day, entering this country illegally,” he added.

In a Nov. 13 statement, the CBP said the Trump administration delivered the sixth straight month of zero releases at the border in October. There were 7,899 Border Patrol apprehensions on the southwest border, approximately 95 percent lower than the monthly average of the prior administration.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 10:45

UK Man Arrested For Posing With Gun In Photo Taken While In The US

Zero Hedge -

UK Man Arrested For Posing With Gun In Photo Taken While In The US

Last year during sweeping British protests triggered by the stabbing murders of three young girls at a dance recital by the radicalized 17-year-old child of Rwandan migrants, London Metropolitan Police Commissioner Mark Rowley threatened to have American citizens "arrested and extradited" to the UK for "stoking racial violence" (i.e. pointing out that third world migrants and often the children of third world migrants are a societal net negative and should be deported). 

The event sparked a series of thousands of arrests of UK citizens for crimes as meager as posting memes online and hoisting British flags in the presence of immigrants.  In the past year at least 12,000 such arrests have been made in the name of "quelling hate speech", an ill defined violation based on arbitrary guidelines and left up the whims of leftist bureaucrats. 

No US citizens have been extradited, likely because the action would start 1776 Part II and a handful of armed Americans delivered on a Carnival Cruise Liner would end up conquering the UK in a week or less.

However, it would seem that the British authorities have decided to take out their frustrations on their own citizens who dare to visit the US to enjoy some of the freedoms they don't have at home.  

A British IT consultant was arrested by West Yorkshire Police after posting pictures on LinkedIn of himself holding guns during an American vacation.  Jon Richelieu-Booth, 50, shared the photograph taken at a Florida homestead on August 13.  The post sparked a 13-week ordeal, which began with a police warning at his residence.  Officers cautioned him about online content and its "potential impact on others' feelings".

Despite Mr Richelieu-Booth’s offer to demonstrate the photograph's American origin, authorities chose to arrest him on August 24.  All charges were ultimately thrown out, but police continued to harass Booth until October, when they arrested him yet again for "bail violations".  

Whilst the original firearms and stalking charges were dismissed, prosecutors pursued a public order offense regarding a separate social media post.  Mr Richelieu-Booth was scheduled to face Bradford magistrates on November 25th for allegedly displaying material intended to cause distress, but this charge was also eventually withdrawn.  He originally faced a potential prison sentence of six months if convicted.

Elon Musk, who has been highly critical of the UK's censorship policies, reposted a summary of the story to his 229 million followers on X, writing:

“And this is why we have the first and second amendments in America...The first amendment in the US protects freedom of speech, while the second amendment relates to the right to bear arms..."

Though the incident has ended with Booth avoiding jail time, there is a cottage industry of Europeans traveling to the US to experience life away from progressive authoritarianism.  This includes shooting firearms for recreation.  Often these adventures are documented on YouTube and other platforms, and might be considered an embarrassment for some officials overseas.  

Booth's arrest could be an attempt to chill the waters on British travelers who make life in America look "too good". 

Some firearms are technically "legal" in the UK, but the application process is arduous and subject to arbitrary police examination, which is why only 0.25% of the population has successfully acquired a firearms certificate.  The behavior of UK police is reminiscent of a communist regime; no crime has been committed, but the government wants to dissuade from certain behaviors anyway. 

A conviction isn't necessarily the goal.  Instead, the process is the punishment.  The ongoing struggle session for one man sends a warning to the rest of the populace.  The goal is to frighten the public into walking on eggshells.  It's much easier to control a population that censors itself.  The message is clear:  No matter where you travel in the world, the government at home owns you.  

*  *  * CYBER MONDAY IS HERE - LAST DAY!

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 10:30

'Inside NYT's Hoax Factory': Trump's AI/Crypto Czar Dismisses Hit-Piece As 'Nothing Burger'

Zero Hedge -

'Inside NYT's Hoax Factory': Trump's AI/Crypto Czar Dismisses Hit-Piece As 'Nothing Burger'

Authored by Jesse Coghlan via CoinTelegraph.com,

White House AI and crypto czar David Sacks has fired back at The New York Times over a report detailing how his government advisory role could benefit his investments and those of his close associates.

Sacks said in a post to X that despite having “debunked in detail” the Times’ reporting over the past five months, the outlet continued to publish the article on Sunday about his supposed conflicts of interest.

“Today they evidently just threw up their hands and published this nothing burger,” Sacks wrote. “Anyone who reads the story carefully can see that they strung together a bunch of anecdotes that don’t support the headline.”

Sacks is a co-founder and partner at the venture firm Craft Ventures, and his special government employee role at the White House has drawn scrutiny in the past, with Democrat Senator Elizabeth Warren saying in May that he is “financially invested in the crypto industry, positioning him to potentially profit from the crypto policy changes he makes at the White House.”

Source: David Sacks

Before he became crypto czar, Sacks and Craft divested over $200 million in crypto and crypto-tied stocks, at least $85 million of which Sacks owned, but Sacks retained an interest in several illiquid investments of “private equity of digital asset-related companies.”

Sacks retains 20 crypto investments, The Times reports

The Times reported that its analysis of Sacks’ financial disclosure found he has retained 708 tech investments, 449 of which are AI-related and 20 are tied to crypto, all of which could benefit from the policies Sacks supports.

In one example of a perceived conflict in Sacks’ role, the outlet stated that Craft Ventures is invested in the crypto infrastructure company BitGo, which offers a stablecoin-as-a-service.

BitGo filed to go public in September, with regulatory filings showing Craft owned 7.8% of the company.

The Times noted that Sacks was a major backer of the stablecoin-regulating GENIUS Act, which was signed into law earlier this year. Many crypto commentators predicted that this would boost the use and adoption of the tokens by institutions.

Other examples noted by the Times involved Sacks’ and Craft’s ties to companies involved with AI, which have skyrocketed in value as the White House and Wall Street bet on the technology’s potential.

The Times noted that Sacks’ ethics waivers, shared in March, stated he would sell his interests in AI and crypto; however, they don’t disclose when he sold the assets and do not detail the value of his remaining investments.

NYT created “bogus narrative,” says Sacks

In his X post, Sacks shared a letter to the Times sent by his lawyers at Clare Locke accusing the outlet of setting out “to write a hit piece” and giving their reporters “clear marching orders” to find conflicts of interest.

Sacks added it was “very clear how NYT willfully mischaracterized or ignored the facts to support their bogus narrative.”

Sacks’ spokesperson Jessica Hoffman told the Times that he has complied with rules for special government employees, and the Office of Government Ethics said that Sacks should sell his investments in certain types of companies but not others.

Sacks’ role as a special government employee is limited to 130 days, and in September, Democratic lawmakers questioned whether he had exceeded the number of days allowed with his appointment.

However, Sacks reportedly carefully manages the days he spends as a special government employee to ensure that he stays under the limit.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 10:15

'Worse Than COVID': Weak US Manufacturing Surveys Signal Stagflation In November

Zero Hedge -

'Worse Than COVID': Weak US Manufacturing Surveys Signal Stagflation In November

This morning's survey data on the US manufacturing economy comes as the post-shutdown slump in 'soft' data has dominated desk conversations amid the vacuum of hard macro data...

But the picture remains mixed:

  • S&P Global's US Manufacturing PMI BEAT expectations in November but dipped on a MoM basis from 52.5 to 52.2 (still in expansion territory and up from the 51.9 flash print).

  • ISM's Manufacturing PMI MISSED expectations, dropping from 48.7 to 48.2 (well below the 49.0 expectation) and in contraction for the ninth month in a row.

Although the headline PMI signalled a further expansion of factory activity in November, "the health of the US manufacturing sector gets more worrying the more you scratch under the surface," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"The main impetus came from a strong rise in factory production, but growth in new order inflows slowed sharply, hinting at a marked weakening of demand growth."

Under the hood, ISM shows Price Paid higher, and new orders and employment worsening...

For two successive months now, warehouses have filled with unsold stock to a degree not previously seen since comparable data were available in 2007. This unplanned accumulation of stock is usually a precursor to reduced production in the coming months.

“Profit margins are meanwhile coming under pressure from a combination of disappointing sales, stiff competition and rising input costs, the latter widely linked to tariffs.

In short, Williamson notes that manufacturers are making more goods but often not finding buyers for these products. 

"This combination of sustained robust production growth alongside weaker than expected sales led to a worryingly steep rise in unsold inventories."

ISM Respondents were pretty clear with blame for weakness being placed at Trump's feet in Washington:

  • “New order entries are within the forecast. We have increased requests from customers to get their orders sooner. Transit time on imports seems to be longer.” (Machinery)

  • “We are starting to institute more permanent changes due to the tariff environment. This includes reduction of staff, new guidance to shareholders, and development of additional offshore manufacturing that would have otherwise been for U.S. export.” (Transportation Equipment)

  • “Tariffs and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on demand for adhesives and sealants, which are primarily used in building construction.” (Chemical Products)

  • “No major changes at this time, but going into 2026, we expect to see big changes with cash flow and employee head count. The company has sold off a big part of the business that generated free cash while offering voluntary severance packages to anyone.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)

  • “Business conditions remain soft as a result of higher costs from tariffs, the government shutdown, and increased global uncertainty.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

  • “The unstable market has made pricing fluctuate in a very volatile way; I have had to reduce suppliers for raw materials to maintain a better direct cost structure. Reducing my suppliers has reduced the availability of some items and created longer lead times.” (Fabricated Metal Products)

  • “Business continues to be a struggle regarding long-term sourcing decisions based on tariffs and landing costs. External (or international) sourcing remains the lowest-cost solution compared to U.S. production/manufacturing. The delta is smaller now, reducing margins.” (Computer & Electronic Products)

  • “The government shutdown has impacted our access to agricultural data, impacting agricultural markets and, as a result, decisions we make. Optimism for a tariff exemption on palm oil percolated but hasn’t come to fruition at this time.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)

  • “Trade confusion. At any given point, trade with our international partners is clouded and difficult. Suppliers are finding more and more errors when attempting to export to the U.S. — before I even have the opportunity to import. Freight organizations are also having difficulties overseas, contending with changing regulations and uncertainty. Conditions are more trying than during the coronavirus pandemic in terms of supply chain uncertainty.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)

  • “Domestic and export business have been lackluster. Our customers are taking prompt orders only and still don’t have confidence to build inventory, much less make expansion plans. In fact, most of any kind of ‘planning’ has been undermined by unpredictability due to inconsistent messaging from Washington. Artificial intelligence is in its infancy stages, producing confusing and most often inaccurate information. This also causes apprehensive consumer buying patterns, contributing to the challenge of forecasting demand.” (Wood Products)

However, there is hope, as manufacturers have grown more optimistic about the year ahead, with the ending of the government shutdown helping lift confidence from the sharp drop suffered in October.

"Optimism is being fueled by hopes of improved policy support, including lower interest rates, as well as greater political stability, though it is clear that uncertainty remains elevated and a drag on business growth in many firms, holding confidence well below levels seen at the start of the year.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 10:08

ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 48.2% in November

Calculated Risk -

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 48.2% in November, down from 48.7% in October. The employment index was at 44.0%, down from 46.9% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 47.4%, down from 49.4%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.2% November 2025 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the ninth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.

The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.2 percent in November, a 0.5-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 48.7 percent in October. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 67th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for a third straight month in November following one month of growth; the figure of 47.4 percent is 2 percentage points lower than the 49.4 percent recorded in October. The November reading of the Production Index (51.4 percent) is 3.2 percentage points higher than October’s figure of 48.2 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 58.5 percent, up 0.5 percentage point compared to the reading of 58 percent reported in October. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 44 percent, down 3.9 percentage points compared to the 47.9 percent recorded in October. The Employment Index registered 44 percent, down 2 percentage points from October’s figure of 46 percent.
emphasis added
This suggests manufacturing contracted for the ninth consecutive month in November..  This was below the consensus forecast, and employment was very weak and prices very strong.

Key Events This Busy Week: ISM Mfg and Services, ADP, Core PCE And More

Zero Hedge -

Key Events This Busy Week: ISM Mfg and Services, ADP, Core PCE And More

As noted earlier, Asia kickstarted December in a weak mood with Bitcoin down another -6% this morning and Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures both notably lower. 10yr US Treasuries are +3bps and 10yr JGBs are +6.7bps as Ueda said at a speech this morning "At the Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM), the Bank will examine and discuss economic activity and prices at home and abroad as well as developments in financial and capital markets, including the point I just mentioned, based on various data and information, and will consider the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate and make decisions as appropriate."

DB's Japanese economist believes this strongly suggests an interest rate hike at the December meeting and has pushed forward his view of a hike from January to the meeting later this month, the Friday before Christmas. Market pricing has increased from a probability of just under 60% to 83%. This story brings shades of the 2022 meeting just before Xmas when the BoJ lifted its cap on 10yr JGBs from 0.25% to 0.5%. That saw the market spooked a little. The Yen has risen by +0.39% and the Nikkei is -2.04% lower this morning with 2yr yields +5bps, surpassing the 1% threshold and reaching their highest point since June 2008. 

This coming week will allow forecasters to also fine-tune their Fed views ahead of that. There is plenty of data to get through, both shutdown-delayed and routine. Globally, we have European CPI tomorrow and PPI on Wednesday, following German and French CPI prints today. Various global PMIs are also out today, and we also have Cyber Monday, which follows what seems to have been a decent Black Friday weekend. As an example, Mastercard’s SpendingPulse index was up +4.1% on Friday, up from 3.4% last year. Newsflow continues to bubble up around peace negotiations for the war in Ukraine, so that’s one to watch as well.

Focusing in on the US, the Federal Reserve is firmly in its pre-meeting communications blackout ahead of the 10 December FOMC decision, leaving economic releases to do the talking. Markets have already priced an 80% chance of a 25bp cut next week, and this week’s data will help shape that view as well as expectations for 2026.

The US calendar begins today with the ISM Manufacturing Index, expected to hold near recent averages at 48.5, signalling continued softness in factory activity. Tomorrow brings unit motor vehicle sales, forecast at 15.8 million units, a modest improvement from October. Wednesday is the busiest day, featuring the ADP employment report, expected to show a gain of 50,000 jobs versus 42,000 previously. This report will take on added significance as it will be the most up-to-date labor market data available to Fed officials before they meet. Also due Wednesday are industrial production, likely to rise 0.1% after a slight decline last month, and the ISM Services Index, projected at 51.8, close to its two-year trend. On Thursday, factory orders should show a 0.5% increase, pointing to resilient capital spending. Friday rounds out the week with the delayed September personal income and consumption report, and within it, the more important core PCE. This is expected to hold at 0.23% month-on-month, keeping the annual rate near 2.9%, a tenth above what the Fed was tracking when they only had CPI to use. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is also anticipated to edge up to 54.0 from 51.0. While sentiment remains depressed—its 24-month average is comparable to Great Recession levels according to our economists—real GDP growth of 2.6% annualized over the past eight quarters and inflation-adjusted consumer spending growth of 2.8% underscore the economy’s resilience. Note that the combined September and October JOLTS report has been rescheduled for 9 December, while October and November payrolls and unemployment data will not arrive until 16 December, well after the FOMC meeting.

Across Europe, inflation will dominate the agenda. Country-level CPI prints for Germany and France set the tone today, followed by the Eurozone flash CPI for November tomorrow. Switzerland reports inflation figures on Wednesday, and Sweden follows on Thursday. These data points will be closely watched for confirmation that disinflation trends remain intact across the continent.

In Asia, the focus turns to manufacturing and policy signals. Most of China’s PMI data came out yesterday and this morning, but we still have the private-sector services PMI on Wednesday.

Geopolitical developments will also feature prominently. US and Ukrainian delegates met in Florida yesterday without any incremental headlines of note. The US’s main negotiator Witkoff is expected to travel to Moscow today and likely meet Putin tomorrow. EU defence ministers meet today on the same topic, followed by NATO foreign affairs ministers on Wednesday for further strategic discussions. French President Macron undertakes a state visit to China from Wednesday to Friday, underscoring diplomatic engagement in Asia.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday December 1

  • Data: US November ISM index, China manufacturing PMI, UK October net consumer credit, M4, Japan November monetary base, Italy November manufacturing PMI, budget balance, new car registrations, Canada November manufacturing PMI
  • Central banks: BoJ’s Ueda speaks, ECB’s Nagel speaks, BoE's Dhingra speaks
  • Other: EU foreign affairs council (defence)

Tuesday December 2

  • Data: US November total vehicle sales, Japan November consumer confidence index, France October budget balance, Italy October unemployment rate, PPI, Eurozone November CPI, October unemployment rate
  • Central banks: Fed's Powell and Bowman speak, ECB’s Dolenc speaks
  • Earnings: Crowdstrike, Marvell
  • Other: OECD economic outlook

Wednesday December 3

  • Data: US November ISM services, ADP report, September industrial production, import price index, export price index, capacity utilisation, China services PMI, UK November official reserves changes, Italy November services PMI, Eurozone October PPI, Canada Q3 labor productivity, Australia Q3 GDP, Switzerland November CPI
  • Central banks: ECB's Lagarde and Lane speak, BoE's Mann speaks
  • Earnings: Salesforce, Snowflake, Inditex, Macy’s, Dollar Tree, Royal Bank of Canada
  • Other: NATO foreign affairs ministers meeting

Thursday December 4

  1. Data: US initial jobless claims, UK November new car registrations, construction PMI, Japan October household spending, Germany November construction PMI, Eurozone October retail sales, Sweden November CPI
  2. Central banks: Fed's Bowman speaks, ECB's Kocher, Cipollone and Lane speak, BoE's Mann speaks, BoE’s DMP survey
  3. Earnings: Kroger, Dollar General, HPE

Friday December 5

  • Data: US September PCE, personal income, personal spending, December University of Michigan survey, October consumer credit, Japan October leading index, coincident index, Germany October factory orders, France October trade balance, current account balance, industrial production, Italy October retail sales, Canada November labour force survey
  • Central banks: ECB's Lane speaks

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the ISM manufacturing and services indexes on Monday and Wednesday and core PCE inflation and the University of Michigan report on Friday. There are no speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, reflecting the FOMC’s blackout period.

Monday, December 1 

  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, November final (consensus 51.9, last 51.9)
  • 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, November (GS 49.0, consensus 49.0, last 48.7): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index rebounded 0.3pt to 49.0 in November, reflecting slight improvement in our manufacturing survey tracker (+0.1pt to 51.6).

Tuesday, December 2 

  • 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, November (GS 15.4mn, consensus 15.5mn, last 15.3mn)

Wednesday, December 3 

  • 08:15 AM ADP employment change, November (GS -20k, consensus +10k, last +42k)
  • 08:30 AM Import price index, September (consensus +0.1%, last +0.3%)
  • 09:15 AM Industrial production, September (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last -0.1%): Manufacturing production, September (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%); Capacity utilization, September (GS 75.8%, consensus 77.3%, last 75.8%): We estimate that industrial production was unchanged in September, as declines in auto manufacturing and natural gas production were offset by increases in non-auto manufacturing and electricity, oil and gas production. We estimate capacity utilization was unchanged at 75.8%, following the recent downward adjustment implied by the annual revision to the industrial production index. 
  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, November final (consensus 55.0, last 55.0)
  • 10:00 AM ISM services index, November (GS 52.5, consensus 52.0, last 52.4): We estimate that the ISM services index increased 0.1pt to 52.5 in November, reflecting sequential improvement in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (+0.6pt to 53.1).

Thursday, December 4 

08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 29 (GS 215k, consensus 222k, last 216k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 22 (consensus 1,956k, last 1,960k)

Friday, December 5 

  • 10:00 AM Personal income, September (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%); Personal spending, September (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%); Core PCE price index, September (GS +0.22%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); Core PCE price index (YoY), September (GS +2.85%, consensus +2.8%, last +2.9%); PCE price index, September (GS +0.29%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); PCE price index (YoY), September (GS +2.81%, consensus +2.8%, last +2.7%): We estimate that personal income and personal spending increased by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, in September. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.22% in September, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.85%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.29% in September, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.81%. We estimate that market-based core PCE rose 0.23% in September.
  • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, December preliminary (GS 52.5, consensus 52.0, last 51.0): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, December preliminary (GS 3.3%, last 3.4%)

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 09:40

Watch: Unrepentant Trump Unloads On Fake News Reporters

Zero Hedge -

Watch: Unrepentant Trump Unloads On Fake News Reporters

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A gaggle of fake news reporters gathered around President Tump aboard Airforce One Sunday as he traveled back to Washington D.C. after the Thanksgiving weekend, and he let them all know exactly what he thought of them.

Trump dropped several truth bombs as the panicked reporters attempted gotcha questions regarding his third world migration moratorium.

When asked how long he intends to pause migration from countries including Afghanistan and Somalia, Trump shot back, “A long time. We don’t want those people, we have enough problems…You know why we don’t want them? Because many of them are no good and they should NOT be in our country.”

Trump highlighted people from “Countries like Somalia, that have virtually no government, no military — all they do is go around killing each other, then they come into our country and tell us how to run our country. We don’t want them.”

Referring to Democrat Rep. Ilhan Omar, Trump blasted “She supposedly came into our country by marrying her brother. Well, if that’s true, she shouldn’t be a congresswoman, and we should throw her the HELL out of the country!”

Trump clarified that he will strip naturalisation from those who break the oath to America.

“If we have criminals that came into our country, and they were naturalized maybe through Biden or somebody that didn’t know what they were doing, if I have the power to do it… I would denaturalise, absolutely!” he stated.

When asked “What do you mean [by] ‘remigration?'” the President responded, “It means – get people OUT that are in our country. Get ’em out of here! I want to get them out! We got a lot of people who shouldn’t be here.”

When the gaggle attempted to get Trump to turn on Secretary of War Pete Hegseth over the narco boat strikes, he was having none of it.

He also stated that he has a replacement in mind for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, but was not going to tell the fake news.

When asked if he stands by calling Tim Walz “retarded,” in his Thanksgiving message,Trump responded, “Yeah! I think there’s something wrong with him. Absolutely. Sure. You have a problem with it?”

“Anybody that would do what he did – allow those [Somalians] into his state, and pay billions out to Somalia…it’s not even a country, it doesn’t function like a country! There’s something wrong with Walz!” Trump added.

Trump ended the exchange by bodying the two lead Karens at the head of the gaggle, who were pestering him for details of an MRI he recently had.

“It wasn’t on the brain, ’cause I took a cognitive test and aced it! Which you would be incapable of doing,” he told one of the women before turning to the other and bellowing “YOU TOO!”

You can clearly see that Trump absolutely loves intellectually demolishing these fake media wage monkeys.

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Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 09:00

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