LA To Institute Mass Layoffs Of City Workers In Wake Of $1 Billion Deficit

For many years now the narrative on California is that it is a country unto itself and it generates so many tax dollars the federal government and red states should be throwing a garden party in its honor.  In reality, California is not a "donor state" as the Rockefeller Institute claims.  It can't even support itself, let alone bolster the rest of the country.

This problem has become more evident in the past year as Los Angeles hits a budget deficit of a billion dollars and, the state government doesn't have the funds to help the city recover because of it's own $68 billion deficit.

In response to the lack of aid from the state or federal government, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass unveiled a proposed $13.9 billion municipal budget for fiscal year 2025-26, which includes more than 1,600 layoffs and the consolidation of four city departments in an effort to eliminate the overdraft.  Though LA employs around 50,000 people in total and the layoffs might seem minor in comparison, the city's expansive programs require employee growth this year, not cuts. 

Furthermore, it is likely that the 1600 fired workers are just the beginning.  The city removed at least 2000 positions from its employee roster at the end of last year and is already moving to make cuts to existing workers.

It's no coincidence that LA is in fiscal trouble in 2025, and it's not only because of the $2 billion in damages associated with the recent wildfires.  After decades of decadent debt spending CA is deeply dependent on federal funds.  Federal budget cuts and the shutdown of agencies like USAID are having far reaching consequences, especially in progressive states with a heavy emphasis on socialized programs.  

For example, the federal Department of Health and Human Services recently terminated $12 billion in grants intended for infectious disease response, mental health services and other public health issues.  At least $1 billion of this cash was supposed to go to California in 2025.  Covid money is funneled into various health departments and other projects and California was the biggest recipient of pandemic funds by far with over $77.8 billion received through the state government and over $600 billion in total relief.  Some critics argue that covid relief in California was wrongly exploited as a financial boon for various state agencies, politicians and employees.

Now the pandemic funding is finally cut off after 5 years.  $45 million of the $1 billion lost was supposed to go to Los Angeles. 

The LAPD is also losing over $10 million due to federal funding cuts.  The agency and city officials are trying to sort out the potential impact of being cut-off from millions of dollars in law enforcement and homeland security grants, following the US Justice Department’s announcement such programs would be suspended for any municipality that considered itself a so-called, “sanctuary city,” that bars local officers from playing a role in immigration enforcement.

The Orange County Register reported last month that Orange County will lose out on more than $68 million in federal earmarks for 2025, money that was previously approved for community projects.

California schools have been warned by the Trump Administration that if they don't stop instituting DEI programs and indoctrination, they will lose at up to $16 billion in funding, with $1.26 billion of that going to the Los Angeles Unified School District.

The sheer enormity of federal funds floating around California should be taken into account, but also the fact that despite access to so much money California and LA are still facing a massive budget shortfall.  The chances of this dilemma being solved through layoffs and department consolidation is next to nil.  The real root of the problem is policy driven; Democrat welfare programs, social programs and their open border mentality have resulted in a never ending drain on their finances, slowly destroying what was once one of the greatest states in the nation.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 17:20

Former Rep. George Santos Sentenced To More Than 7 Years In Prison

Authored by Jackson Richman via The Epoch Times,

Former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) was sentenced on April 25 to more than 7 years in federal prison on wire fraud and aggravated identity theft charges.

The sentence of 87 months behind bars is what was requested by the Department of Justice.

He was also ordered to pay almost $374,000 and more than $205,000 in restitution and forfeiture, respectively.

Santos, who was charged in 2023, faced a minimum of two years and a maximum of 22 years behind bars.

The former congressman, who represented New York’s Third Congressional District, told One America News on April 24 that he plans to serve his entire sentence in solitary confinement out of fear for his safety.

Santos pleaded guilty in August to committing wire fraud and aggravated identity theft.

“I betrayed the trust of my constituents and supporters. I deeply regret my conduct,” he said upon pleading guilty.

Following the hearing, Santos said he felt he had no choice but to admit wrongdoing.

“Pleading guilty is a step I never imagined I’d take, but it is a necessary one because it is the right thing to do,” Santos told reporters.

“It’s not only a recognition of my misrepresentation to others, but more profoundly, it is my own recognition of the lies I told myself over these past years.”

Santos, while running for Congress, filed false reports with the Federal Election Commission that consisted of inflated campaign fundraising numbers in order to qualify for funding and logistical support from the Republican National Committee. His campaign falsely reported that Santos loaned $500,000 to the campaign.

Additionally, Santos charged the credit cards of campaign donors without their permission.

He also took $24,000 in unemployment insurance during the COVID-19 pandemic despite being employed.

Moreover, Santos made false statements to the House of Representatives such as how much he had in assets.

Santos was expelled from Congress on Dec. 1, 2023, following a House Ethics Committee report that he “knowingly caused his campaign committee to file false or incomplete reports with the Federal Election Commission; used campaign funds for personal purposes; engaged in fraudulent conduct, ... and engaged in knowing and willful violations of the Ethics in Government Act.”

The report also said that Santos “continues to flout his statutory financial disclosure obligations and has failed to correct countless errors and omissions in his past FD Statements, despite being repeatedly reminded by the ISC and the Committee of his requirement to do so.”

Santos initially filed to run as an independent to win back his seat in the 2024 election but dropped his campaign.

Even before entering Congress, Santos was subject to controversy, having admitted to allegations about him fabricating parts of his personal and professional life. This included him claiming that he was Jewish—only for him to later say that he is “Jew-ish.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 17:00

"We Are In A Homelessness Crisis": California Democrat Wants To Let Broke Students Sleep In Their Cars

As California spends over half its budget providing 15 million residents with Medi-cal coverage - a substantial portion of whom are 'undocumented,' one state Democrat has proposed new legislation that would allow college students to sleep in their vehicles as the Golden State grapples with a worsening homeless crisis. 

Brad Butterfield pauses after checking the top of his RV for leaks in Arcata on Aug. 24, 2024. Photo by Alexandra Hootnick for CalMatters

Left-wing Assemblymember Corey Jackson introduced a bill mandating that California State University chancellors and community college district governing boards collaborate with basic needs coordinators and campus security to establish an overnight parking program by late 2026, Fox News reports.

"This bill confronts a harsh reality to many of our students who are sleeping in their vehicles or other displaced settings as they are unable to find affordable housing, and that's jeopardizing their education," the California Democrat said. "What I am proposing is practical, immediate relief, overnight parking programs that turn campus lots into safe, temporary havens while the state works on lasting solutions."

"We are in a housing crisis. We are in a homelessness crisis, and it's not an either or approach. It's a both and all of the above approach," he added.

The Community College League of California released a survey revealing that three in five California community college students face housing insecurity, with one in four experiencing homelessness.

While America is the home of the free (or at least it used to be) and sleeping in one’s car should be one’s prerogative, the bill raises questions about California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) handling of his state’s housing affordability.

Fox News reports:

Newsom's office, citing 2024 records, stressed that homelessness is increasing nationwide by more than 18%, while California's national trend is closer to 3%, lower than 40 other states. Newsom also touted the state's more than 71,000 year-round shelter beds, which a spokesperson said is double the amount created during the 5-year period prior to the Newsom administration.

Unsurprisingly, California Republicans are not fans of the proposal and say California Democrats should focus on solving the root of the issue.

"After wrecking affordability in California, Democrats have nothing left but bad ideas," California Assembly Republican Leader James Gallagher said in a statement to Fox News. "They’re now proposing to let students sleep in cars because they can’t fix the housing crisis they created. This isn’t innovation. It’s desperation from a party that spent decades raising costs, blocking new housing and wasting billions on programs that failed. Letting students live in parking lots isn’t a solution. It’s proof their policies have completely collapsed."

A California lawmaker proposed a bill that would allow California college and university students to sleep in their cars.  (Fox News Digital)

Fox News contributor Hugh Hewitt had this to say about the plan: "The problem in California is there are not enough homes and apartments. It's a supply problem created over 50 years of no-growth, left-wing policies that are anti-housing. The solution is not to create homeless encampments, and each one of these will become that. People are going to enroll in the community college for 18 bucks a credit, and then they're going to put their car in the community college parking lot."

Newsom's office, when reached for comment, refused to weigh in on the bill: "California is bucking not only national increases but reversing long-term trends in the state from decades of inaction prior to this administration. California’s progress in addressing homelessness is outperforming the nation.”

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Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 16:40

Where Things Stand

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

“In order for a system to be stabIe, it requires negative feedback, also known as consequences.”

- Barrie Drain

“Fighting fascism,” for the American Jacobins who lead the Democratic Party, means opposing any attempt to flush the corruption out of the entrenched bureaucracy, just as their pet phrase “our democracy” actually refers to the matrix of grift and despotic activism that drives their political operating system. That is exactly how and why the USAID was so crucial to spread captured taxpayer spoils as NGO salaries for the gender studies grads to play “activist,” so as to inflict their special brand of sadistic power madness over the land — to keep the game going.

Now, USAID is scattered to the winds and all they have left is their installed base of federal judges and the horde of lawfare lawyers who feed them bogus cases to halt the remaining work of Mr. Trump’s executive branch clean-up operation.

Remember: Robespierre, leader of the Jacobins in the French Revolution, was a lawyer. 

Their version of defending “our democracy” in 1793 was the Reign of Terror that sent at least 17,000 political opponents to the guillotine.

Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD)

Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) is the Democrats’ Robespierre. He is promising his own reign of terror when his party recaptures Congress in the 2026 “midterm” election.

Norm Eisen is his chief lawyer and legal strategist. His sole aim is recapture power in order to restore the Democrats’ sadistic regime of thought-control and the money-flows that feed it. That’s where things stand for the moment. You can sense how this tension is tending toward something that looks like civil war.

Someone needs to investigate the relationship between the lawfare squad and the judges to see how closely they worked together.

It appears that Norm would write prosecution memos, articles, etc., (as well as go on CNN) to act as an analyst when in reality he was running the… pic.twitter.com/hdkDggzlt4

— The Researcher (@listen_2learn) March 24, 2025

The game now is to goad President Trump into any kind of executive action in defiance of this legal insurrection that would subject him to impeachment after January 2027, when a new Congress is seated, theoretically with a Democratic majority. There are several flaws in the Raskin / Eisen plan-of-action. One is their supposition that the Democratic Party is popular enough to win a Congressional majority in 2026, or that they will enjoy the installed devices of electoral cheating to achieve victory no matter what.

The party is currently blundering wildly in support of obviously insane actions that a vast majority voters oppose, such as stopping the deportation of illegal immigrants, allowing men to compete in women’s sports, and opposing proof of citizenship in federal elections. Which is to say that the voters are onto exactly how crazy and destructive the Democratic Party has become.

The question is: what can be done about this lawfare insurrection. An easy solution would be for Congress to pass a law restricting the power of federal judges to issue orders that affect the nation as a whole outside their own designated districts. Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Charles Grassley has introduced the Judicial Relief Clarification Act of 2025. Grassley argues that nationwide injunctions, which allow a single district judge to block federal policies across the country, represent judicial overreach and disrupt the constitutional balance of powers.

In the House, Rep. Darrel Issa (R-CA) has introduced the No Rogue Rulings Act of 2025 (HR 1526, passed on April 9) to complement Sen. Grassley’s bill. The Constitution is somewhat vague about the composition of a federal judiciary below the Supreme Court, and essentially leaves the matter to Congress to set parameters for the power of federal judges. Congress can also alter or abolish districts, such as the DC federal district from which so much partisan Democratic Party lawfare has emanated under political activist Judges James Boasberg, Amy Berman Jackson, Tanya Chutkan, and Beryl Howell (all of them involved in the sadistic prosecutions of J-6 defendants).

The bills from each house next must go through a reconciliation process that boils them down to a single piece of legislation that can be sent to Mr. Trump for the presidential signature. The House passage is likely assured. The hang-up is that under Senate rules, the Democrats could mount a filibuster that would require 60 votes to break. The Republicans only control the chamber by a 53 to 47 majority, and no Democrats have signaled any intention to vote in favor of such a bill. In any case, the entire process would take months and might not succeed at all.

A much simpler remedy would be for the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) to rule in any of a number of cases now on their docket that the lawfare antics of the federal judges amount to interference with an independent executive branch — in short, that the judiciary can’t usurp the executive powers of the President, which include the conduct of foreign policy, the ability to manage personnel in executive agencies, and certain issues around the spending of taxpayer dollars.

A different sort of remedy would be the application by the DOJ of federal statute 18 USC 371, Conspiracy to Defraud the United States against Norm Eisen and his colleagues-in-lawfare for attempting to maliciously bury the executive branch in litigation for the purpose of nullifying the executive powers of the president. Beyond all that is the abyss: a nullified election, a paralyzed chief executive, and a constitutional crisis that has the potential to lead to civil violence. The Democrats seem willing to go there, perhaps even avid for it.

The Jacobins of 1793 were mad for blood, too, and they spilled a whole lot of it. By the summer of 1794, the blood was finally spouting out of their own necks. . . and then the Jacobin reign of terror came to a sudden and complete end. Heed their example.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 16:20

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for March 2025. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 43 states, decreased in four states, and remained stable in three, for a three-month diffusion index of 78. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 39 states, decreased in seven states, and remained stable in four, for a one-month diffusion index of 64. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index increased 0.6 percent over the past three months and 0.2 percent in March.
emphasis added

Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three-month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the Pandemic and also at the worst of the Great Recession.

The map is mostly positive on a three-month basis.

Source: Philly Fed.

And here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. 
This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In March, 41 states had increasing activity including minor increases.

Chinese Delegation Spotted Entering Treasury Department, Demands Photos Be Deleted: Report

There has been lots of confusion over the past week whether Trump has - or has not - spoken to Xi Jinping, to set trade negotiation talks in motion. According to Trump, he has and more than once...

Reporter: Have you spoken to President Xi since the tariffs?@POTUS: “I don’t want to comment on that but I’ve spoken to him many times.” pic.twitter.com/TAkK0EjXhA

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 25, 2025

... while China has repeatedly denied it has had any contact with its US counterparts, which is to be expected: admitting it is negotiating would be seen as a carte blanche for other countries to do the same, ending any attempts at negotiation "cartelization" Beijing may have tried to impose.

Unfortunately, the problem is that both sides tend to.... exaggerate reality, which makes a definitive conclusion either way challenging. And absent 3rd party confirmation either way, the market is forced to flip a coin to decide who is telling the truth. Unless, of course, there was 3rd party confirmation, which now appears to be the case.

According to an overnight report in The JoongAng, one of the three biggest newspapers in South Korea, and the newspaper of record for South Korea, it was "confirmed that the United States and China have begun behind-the-scenes contacts in relation to the 'tariff war' waged by US President Donald Trump."

Again, as noted above, after Trump said he had been in contact with China every day, the Chinese side, through a Foreign Ministry spokesperson briefing, said that Trump was effectively lying: "we have never had any consultations or negotiations with the United States, and (the related remarks) are all fake news.” The Chinese Ministry of Commerce also denied this, saying, “Economic and trade negotiations (with the United States) are not underway.”

However, in its overnight report, JoongAng Ilbo confirmed that at around 7 am ET on the 24th, a high-ranking official from the Chinese Ministry of Finance entered the Treasury building located right next to the White House in Washington D.C. accompanied by about 10 attendants.

At around 7:00 AM on the 24th (local time), a high-ranking official from the Chinese Ministry of Finance (equivalent to the Ministry of Planning and Finance) was seen entering the US Treasury Department headquarters building in Washington, D.C., accompanied by about 10 attendants. The photo shows Chinese attendants waiting for the meeting between the two sides to end. They were wearing ID cards for attending the G20 Finance Ministers' Meeting, and their nationality was written as 'China' on the ID cards. Washington=Correspondent Kang Tae-hwa; source

According to the report, the exact identities of the senior officials leading the dozen or so entourage have not been confirmed, "but they were all wearing the identification required for entry into the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting currently taking place in Washington." It was the same type of identification worn by Lan Poan, China’s Minister of Finance, when he met with Choi Sang-mok, the Minister of Strategy and Finance, who visited the U.S. the day before.

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Strategy and Finance Choi Sang-mok, who is visiting Washington, D.C. to attend the G20 Finance Ministers' Meeting and the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC), is greeting Chinese Finance Minister Lan Poan on the 23rd (local time). Courtesy of the Ministry of Strategy and Finance. Source

The Korean newspaper adds that "Chinese officials strongly blocked the press from taking photos of high-ranking officials entering the U.S. Treasury building this morning." 

The Chinese officials then reportedly said that “we have no authority to block the freedom of the press,” but added “we have the right to refuse to allow our personnel to be photographed,” and demanded that the press delete all photos taken on their smartphones.

When the press asked him to reveal the identity of the person who had blocked the interview, he refused, saying, “I have no obligation to reveal my identity.” However, the ID card he was wearing had his name, photo, and nationality written as “China.”

The 'Treasury Department Meeting' between the US and China on this day began at around 7:00 AM, about an hour before Deputy Prime Minister Choi and Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Ahn Duck-keun began the '2+2 Trade Consultation' with US Treasury Secretary Scott Besent and US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamison Greer. As a result, the Korea-US tariff negotiations were conducted following the US-China backroom contacts.

A diplomatic source told JoongAng Ilbo, “The fact that the treasury channels of both the U.S. and China are actually operating means that both countries have reached a critical point under domestic and international pressure due to the current retaliatory tariffs,” and predicted that “the results of the backroom negotiations between the two sides could be a major turning point in the tariff war.” 

As for why China has been extremely secretive about the process, the source told the South Korean outlet that “since this tariff war is unfolding as a battle of pride with the leaders of both countries directly appearing, it may not be easy to create some kind of ‘win-win structure." He added that "the fact that China visited the U.S. Treasury Department in person could be an extremely sensitive issue for China."

Remarkably, Trump may have been telling the truth... again.

Source: The JoongAng

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 15:01

Stocks Stumble After Trump's China Comments

Stocks are trimming gains after President Donald Trump noted US levies on China won’t be dropped unless “they give us something substantial,” adding that opening up the country would be a “big win.”

He also noted that another tariff pause is unlikely.

Trump says he is “speaking to a lot of people from China” when a reporter asks if he has spoken to President Xi since taking office.

Nasdaq is still less than 2% away from pre-Liberation-Day levels...

Prior to these comments given to reporters on Air Force One as Trump heads to the Pope's funeral, the president told Time magazine in an interview released Friday that 20%, 30% or 50% tariffs a year from now would be a “total victory."

“The deal is a deal that I choose,” Trump said in the interview.

“What I’m doing is I will, at a certain point in the not too distant future, I will set a fair price of tariffs for different countries.”

Headline roulette remains firmly in place as the world appears ready to take China's side against The White House's claims that there are ongoing talks with Beijing.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 14:00

Walmart Opens Channel For Battered Chinese Exporters To "Quickly Expand" In Domestic Market

Walmart in China rolled out a new program this week to support Chinese exporters reeling from President Trump's 145% tariffs on U.S.-bound goods. The initiative offers exporters a chance to pivot their strategy by selling domestically through Walmart's hundreds of stores across the world's second-largest economy. 

The new program was announced on Walmart's WeChat account on Thursday and comes in response to the Chinese government's call for the "integrated development of domestic and foreign trade."

Here's a snippet of Walmart's WeChat statement:

Walmart's supplier recruitment system was recently launched, and we sincerely invite high-quality companies with the same values ​​to join us and jointly create high-quality, high-value products for customers. In order to actively respond to the call for the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade, Walmart has opened a green channel for qualified foreign trade companies, simplified the access process, accelerated the approval efficiency, and helped related companies quickly expand the domestic market.

As of 2024, Walmart operated nearly 400 retail stores and clubs across more than 100 cities in China, supported by almost two dozen distribution centers. In the most recent quarter, Walmart reported a 28% net sales growth in the country. 

China's Ministry of Commerce has been working with domestic retailers and e-commerce platforms to redirect export-oriented goods toward domestic consumers, aiming to prevent a shock to the manufacturing sector. This initiative also includes JD.com's move to help offload unsold export inventory within the domestic market. 

Some of the latest trade headlines suggest China is already under pressure, while the lag in any shock is about to hit the shores of U.S. West Coast ports as soon as next week...  

• Amazon Cancels Orders, Walmart Pulls Forecast As Tariffs Take Hold

• Are China Road Traffic Indicators Set To Collapse As Tariff War Cancels Factory Orders

• Chinese Sellers On Amazon Panic After Trump's Tariff Bazooka

• Liberation Day Fallout: China's Port Volumes Sink After Trump's Tariff Blitz

• Chinese Plastics Factories Face Mass Closure As U.S. Ethane Supply Evaporates

• "Our Export Orders Disappeared": Chinese Factories Shutting Down, Laying Off Workers, FT Finds

• First Tariff Shock Set To Hit Port Of Los Angeles, With Ripple Effects Across The Broader Economy

So, what about the U.S.? Why hasn't Walmart set up an 'America First' campaign to promote products from mom-and-pop companies with patriotic signage such as "Made in America" at stores nationwide?

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 14:00

USDA Directs States To Make Sure Illegal Immigrants Don't Receive Food Stamps

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Agriculture (USDA) told states on April 24 to take steps to make sure illegal immigrants do not receive benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), colloquially known as food stamps.

States must at a minimum verify the identity of program applicants, collect applicants’ Social Security numbers, compare the Social Security numbers to the federal government’s Social Security death data, and check whether the applicants are listed in a Department of Homeland Security database as being in the country illegally, John Walk, the USDA’s acting deputy undersecretary for food, nutrition, and consumer services, said in a memorandum to states.

The USDA released a letter from Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem that advised states that they can now use the Department of Homeland Security’s database for free.

State agencies must also verify U.S. citizenship for applicants “for whom there is an indicia that the applicant’s claim to United States citizenship (whether natural born, naturalized, acquired, or derivative) is questionable,” Walk wrote.

Federal law allows U.S. citizens and some legal immigrants to receive SNAP benefits but prohibits illegal immigrants from receiving food stamps. About 11.7 percent—approximately $10.5 billion—of the SNAP benefits paid by the USDA in fiscal year 2023 were improper, including improper payments to illegal immigrants, the Government Accountability Office said in a 2024 report.

States “did not always verify certain program eligibility requirements,” including citizenship, the report stated.

USDA officials are also encouraging states to require the verification of U.S. citizenship for each SNAP applicant, as the law allows states to mandate verification of certain factors and increase the number of in-person interviews of applicants.

“Benefit fraud is unacceptable in all forms, including use by illegal aliens. This guidance serves as a foundation for future compliance endeavors that will not only deter, but end access to benefits by illegal aliens. I appreciate your attention and assistance in making certain only those eligible receive SNAP benefits,” Walk said in the memo.

Walk cited President Donald Trump’s Feb. 19 executive order directing the USDA to “enhance eligibility verification systems, to the maximum extent possible, to ensure that taxpayer-funded benefits exclude any ineligible alien who entered the United States illegally or is otherwise unlawfully present in the United States.”

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins earlier this year sent a letter to states that said her guiding principles for SNAP included taking action to minimize fraud and waste while enforcing legal requirements.

“The days in which taxpayer dollars are used to subsidize illegal immigration are over,” Rollins said in a statement on Thursday. “Today’s directive affirms that the U.S. Department of Agriculture will follow the law—full stop.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 13:40

Amid Worst Start To A Year On Record, Scott Bessent Affirms The Dollar Is Not Dying

Despite a growing chorus of pundits claiming the “death of the dollar” is imminent, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the dollar will remain the world’s reserve currency. 

The dollar is in the midst of its worst start to a year on record...

The following clip from Bloomberg was based on a speech Scott Bessent gave Thursday morning to the IMF and World Bank:

More broadly, the Treasury secretary reinforced backing for the central role of the US and its dollar in the global financial system. 

“I think that the US will always, for my lifetime, be the reserve currency,” said Bessent, age 62. 

He also quipped of the global reserve role, saying “I am actually not sure that anyone else wants it.”

As RealInvestmentAdvice.com reports, some believe Donald Trump’s economic policies are designed to end the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. 

Scott Bessent clears up such misinformation, affirming the dollar’s status as the reserve currency. 

In Trump’s Economic Revolution, we opined on the long-standing Bretton Woods Agreement that made the dollar the reserve currency and how Trump may be steering away from some of the “rules” that evolved since the agreement was signed in 1944.

The agreement and its unwritten rules are economically unsustainable. Trump is rightfully taking action to change them. 

However, that doesn’t mean he intends to change the dollar’s status as the reserve currency.

As we summarized in the article mentioned above:

The dollar will likely remain the world’s reserve currency as no reasonable alternative exists. However, the unspoken agreements and promises surrounding the global economy may change drastically.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 13:20

DNC Chair Rebukes Vice Chair David Hogg's Push To Unseat Incumbent Democrats

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chairman Ken Martin on Thursday rebuked DNC Vice Chair David Hogg’s plan to fund primary challenges against some incumbents within his own party.

Hogg, a 25-year-old survivor of the Parkland High School shooting and one of the best-known DNC officials, and Leaders We Deserve, a progressive political organization founded by Hogg and others in 2023, announced the intention to primary Democrats on their website on April 15.

After Hogg came out as a leading proponent of the push, Martin was critical, saying that the DNC needed to be a “referee” with its officials remaining neutral on primary contests.

“Let me be unequivocal: No DNC officer should ever attempt to influence the outcome of a primary election, whether on behalf of an incumbent or a challenger,” Martin said during an appearance on Fox News.

“If you want to challenge incumbents, you’re more than free to do that, but just not as an officer of the DNC, because our job is to be neutral arbiters. We can’t be both the referee and also the player at the same time.”

Hogg took the opposite stance in an X thread on Thursday defending the push, saying that he could remain affiliated with the DNC in his official capacity while also working against Democratic incumbents that progressives perceive as weak.

“This moment requires us to have the strongest opposition party possible to stop [President Donald] Trump  ... and to provide a real alternative to the Republican Party for voters that we simply do not have right now,” Hogg said.

“As we’re seeing law firms, tech companies, and so many others bowing to Trump, we all must use whatever position of power we have to fight back. And that’s exactly what I’m doing.”

Hogg also said he isn’t breaking any rules by targeting certain Democratic incumbents for replacement.

“The role of the DNC is to set the Presidential primary calendar, set the Presidential debate schedule, to help strengthen our state parties, play a key role in building our data infrastructure for the party, and to be the campaign in waiting for whoever the next Democratic nominee is,” Hogg wrote. 

“Nothing I’m doing is at odds with any of that.”

David Hogg talks to people after speaking at the 60th Anniversary of the March on Washington at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington on Aug. 26, 2023. Andrew Harnik/AP Photo

Leaders We Deserve announced the push earlier this month, indicating that they were seeking a change in the status quo.

“Too many elected leaders in the Democratic Party are either unwilling or unable to meet the moment and are asleep at the wheel while Trump is demolishing the economy, challenging the foundations of our democracy, and creating new existential crises for our country by the day,” a page dedicated to the topic reads.

The group said Washington has an incumbent-favoring culture.

“Today’s party politics has an unwritten rule: if you win a seat, it’s yours for life. No one serious in your party will challenge you. That is a culture that we have to break.”

The organization is seeking to replace long-serving incumbents with new, younger Democrats—and have committed $20 million to that end.

“Younger leaders simply bring a different level of urgency that we just aren’t seeing in our politics right now,” the statement said, referencing young Democrats’ perception of urgency on issues like climate or gun control.

“Our politicians have failed to make [democracy] work for the people, and instead made it work for the special interests destroying our future.”

Democrats Search for Identity Post-Trump

The escalating feud fits into a larger identity crisis for the Democratic Party in the wake of Trump’s sweeping 2024 electoral victory, when he took all seven swing states as well as the popular vote.

Since then, Democrats have been scrambling to articulate their platform and stances amid Trump’s much more aggressive second term.

Meanwhile, young progressive Democrats—including figures like Hogg and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.)—have increasingly sought to assert a presence over the party.

At the end of the 117th Congress, mounting pressure from younger Democrats led three longtime House leaders—Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), and Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), all of whom were octogenarians—to step down, making way for the ascent of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and other younger Democrats.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 13:00

Yesterday, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY, I noted:

On a month-over-month basis, median prices increased 1.7% from February and are now down 5.4% from the June 2024 peak. This is less than the normal seasonal increase in the median price for March. Typically, the NAR median price increases in the Spring, and tends to peak seasonally in the June report.

Seasonally, median prices typically peak in June (closed sales are mostly for contracts signed in April and May).

And seasonally, prices usually bottom the following January (contracts signed in November and December). 
Here is a table of the seasonal percentage increases from January to March, and from January to June (the usual seasonal peak), over the last several years.
The last row shows the seasonal decline from June to January of the following year.  
In 2020, prices continued to increase in the 2nd half of the year and didn't peak seasonally until October.  And prices only declined slightly in the 2nd half of 2021.
20182019202020212022202320242025 Jan to Mar3.7%4.1%5.4%7.5%7.1%4.0%3.8%2.6% Mar to Jun9.6%9.9%4.9%12.4%9.1%9.3%8.7%NA Jan to Jun13.7%14.4%10.6%20.8%16.8%13.7%12.8%NA Jun to Jan-8.9%-6.7%3.1%-3.4%-12.8%-7.7%-7.8%NA
The 2025 increase in median prices from January to March was less than the normal seasonal increase.
Normally we'd expect median prices to increase about 9% to 10% over the next three months, before declining in the 2nd half of the year.  With more and more inventory, and economic uncertainty, the seasonal increase from March to June will probably be less than 9% this year.

Beijing Vows To Stabilize China's Sinking Economy

As we have shown on several recent occasions, the US-China trade war is notable in that while the Xi and Trump admins are clearly going at it, their core "support" organizations such as the Fed and PBOC have taken on decidedly different paths: while the Chinese central bank (which is controlled by the communist party) is doing everything to prop up markets and the yuan, and give Beijing the upper hand when it comes to market leverage in the war with Trump, the Fed is doing just the opposite, allowing the dollar to tumble and letting stocks slide, refusing to intervene in the market. 

In fact one of the biggest tension points in recent weeks has been Trump's anger at Powell, and his desire to "remove" the Fed chair due to the Fed's reluctance to cut rates now, versus cutting them in September 2024, when the market was at all time highs and the Biden economy was reportedly so much stronger.

China PPT: propping up Chinese stocks literally every day

Fed's Powell: fuck your calls pic.twitter.com/VGXMNNwccv

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 17, 2025

Perhaps not surprisingly, with every passing day this dynamic only gets more acute, because while the Fed is desperately seeking reasons to avoid cutting rates such as predicting inflation may jump in a year or so - despite increasingly dovish comments from the likes of Fed officials Waller and Hammack who realize that the US would be in recession long before inflation kicks in - China’s leadership overnight vowed to stabilize the economy and society, "as the country is now at a critical stage in handling the unprecedented trade war with the United States."

In an economic-analysis meeting on Friday, the 24-man Politburo, China's main decision-making body headed by President Xi Jinping, said authorities would roll out specific plans to support companies and individuals affected by the trade war.

They pledged to “coordinate domestic economic work with international economic and trade engagements, resolutely focus on doing our own affairs, steadfastly expand high-level opening up, and focus on stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations”, according to a meeting readout released by Xinhua.

“By enhancing the certainty of high-quality development, we can effectively respond to the uncertainties brought by drastic changes in the external environment,” it said.

In other words, the PBOC will continue doing more of the same, creating a false sense of stability, even as stateside, the Fed encourages the all too real sense of instability.

The Politburo meeting typically sets the tone for the country’s economic work in the second quarter. This year, it has come amid uncertainty over how the world’s second-largest economy will fare in an escalated tariff war with the US while trying to meet leadership’s annual growth target of “around 5 per cent”, after a solid start in the first quarter saw gross domestic product rise by 5.4%, but the growth rate is expected to tumble in coming months.

To boost the role of domestic consumption in driving economic growth, Beijing will strive to increase the income of the lower- and middle-income groups while vigorously developing service consumption, the authorities said. Which is desperately needed since unlike the US, China does not have a social safety net, and therefore how long its economy can remain stressed depends entirely on how long the middle class refuses to revolt.

Beijing will also step up measures to stabilize the housing market, including renovating dilapidated housing in urban areas and refining policies for the acquisition of commercial housing inventory, according to the readout. On the other hand, why Beijing has failed to do this for the past 5 years ever since China suffered a spectacular collapse in its housing sector which crushed the middle class, is anyone's guess. Actually, it's not a guess: the reason why China can not do anything to forcefully stabilize its housing market is because China has way too much debt, and any attempt for massive fiscal stimulus will lead to a quick sugar high... and epic crash shortly after. And Beijing is well aware of this, which is why China has perfected the art of jawboning constantly and doing absolutely nothing.

In response to Trump tariff hikes, China vows to unleash much more stimulus, as it has every week for the past 3 years.

Luckily, at 330% debt/GDP China has lots of fiscal space for stimulus

Oh wait... pic.twitter.com/UmJL9ZwjnQ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 7, 2025

There's more: authorities said they will also maintain stability and boost vitality in the capital markets, in other words the PBOC and "National Team" plunge protection teams will be even more active... while Powell goes fishing.

The Politburo reiterated that Beijing would implement a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, by accelerating the issuance of government bonds and cutting the reserve requirement ratio and key policy interest rates at an appropriate time.

It will also launch new lending facilities to boost technological innovation, consumption and trade.

To support companies significantly impacted by tariffs, the proportion of job-retention refunds from unemployment insurance funds will be increased, the readout added. “We must focus on ensuring people’s livelihoods,” it said correctly, although it will be short by a few trillion yuan when it's all said and done.

Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for China’s economic growth this year to 4%, down from 4.6%, while slashing the US growth outlook to 1.8%, a 0.9% drop from its January projection, as the trade war between the two countries raises the risk of a prolonged decoupling.

And speaking to just how debt-constrained China truly is, the Politburo meeting did not announce any new stimulus measures beyond the budget approved in the National People’s Congress in March, but it "reflects the government’s readiness to launch new policies" when the economy is affected by external shocks, according to Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

“It seems Beijing is not in a rush to launch a large stimulus at this stage,” Zhang said. “It takes time to monitor and evaluate the timing and the size of the trade shock.” Actually, the only reason China is not in a rush to launch a large stimulus, is because it can't: if it does, all it does is buy a few quarters of time before a far more dire crash as deflationary debt-crisis spreads across the country.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 12:40

US Warns Foreign Nationals Over Birth Tourism

Authored by Rachel Acenas via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. State Department issued a warning on Thursday to foreign nationals who plan to obtain U.S. citizenship for their children through “birth tourism.”

Tourist visas will be denied to those who travel to the country for the primary purpose of giving birth on U.S. soil, the State Department said.

“It is unacceptable for foreign parents to use a U.S. tourist visa for the primary purpose of giving birth in the United States to obtain citizenship for the child, which also could result in American taxpayers paying the medical care costs,” the State Department wrote on X.

“This is known as birth tourism and U.S. consular officers deny all such visa applications under U.S. immigration law.”

For visitor visas, a foreign national who wishes to enter the U.S. temporarily for business can obtain a B-1 visa. For tourism, they can apply for a B-2 visa. The State Department warned that visa applicants who violate immigration law through birth tourism may be ineligible to travel to the United States in the future.

33,000 Births Per Year

The State Department says that an entire industry has evolved around birth tourism to help pregnant women from other countries come to the country to obtain U.S. citizenship for their children by giving birth on U.S. soil.

According to the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), birth tourism results in 33,000 births by women on tourist visas every year, and “hundreds of thousands more are born to mothers who are illegal aliens or present on temporary visas.” According to CIS, birth tourism in the United States is practiced by people from around the world, especially citizens of China, Taiwan, Korea, Nigeria, Turkey, Russia, Brazil, and Mexico.

The federal government has sounded the alarm over birth tourism due to potential burdens on public resources, criminal activity, and national security risks.

The 14th Amendment states that children born on U.S. soil are automatically granted U.S. citizenship by virtue of birthright citizenship.

Executive Order

On Jan. 20, President Donald Trump signed an executive order seeking to restrict birthright citizenship. However, the directive has been met with legal challenges and halted nationwide by three district courts.

The Trump administration has argued that children of noncitizens are not “subject to the jurisdiction” of the United States, a phrase used in the 14th Amendment, and therefore not entitled to become American citizens automatically.

The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on Trump’s birthright citizenship restrictions in May.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 12:20

Prosecutors File Notice To Seek Death Penalty For Luigi Mangione

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

Prosecutors on Thursday formally filed a notice of intent to seek the death penalty for Luigi Mangione, the man accused of murdering UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson in New York in December 2024.

The filing, submitted by the Manhattan U.S. Attorney’s office for the U.S. District Court in the Southern District of New York, alleged that Mangione “presents a future danger because he expressed intent to target an entire industry, and rally political and social opposition to that industry, by engaging in an act of lethal violence.”

It alleged that Mangione “took steps to evade law enforcement, flee New York City immediately after the murder, and cross state lines while armed with a privately manufactured firearm and silencer.”

Prosecutors filed the notice just one day before Mangione, 26, is scheduled to appear in Manhattan federal court for an arraignment.

Mangione is facing both federal and state charges over the Dec. 4 death of Thompson, a 50-year-old father of two who was killed as he walked outside a hotel in Midtown Manhattan, where UnitedHealthcare was gathering for an investor conference. UnitedHealthcare is the insurance division of UnitedHealth Group.

Mangione, a prep school and Ivy League graduate, has pleaded not guilty to murder, terrorism, and other charges brought by the state prosecutors in New York.

He is to enter a plea for charges of murder and stalking in the federal case against him. If convicted in that case, the jury would determine in a separate phase of the trial whether or not to recommend the death penalty.

Any such recommendation would need to be unanimous, and the judge would be required to impose it.

Attorney General Pam Bondi directed federal prosecutors to seek capital punishment for Mangione on April 1.

In an April 1 statement, Bondi said the death of Thompson, who headed the biggest health insurer in the United States, was a “premeditated, cold-blooded assassination that shocked America.”

“After careful consideration, I have directed federal prosecutors to seek the death penalty in this case as we carry out President Trump’s agenda to stop violent crime and Make America Safe Again,” she said.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order in January directing the attorney general to help states obtain drugs to carry out executions and seek the death penalty in specific cases, such as when the crime is severe or involves the murder of law enforcement officers.

Mangione’s lawyers did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Thursday.

His attorney, Karen Friedman Agnifilo, previously described seeking the death penalty for Mangione as “barbaric.”

“While claiming to protect against murder, the federal government moves to commit the pre-meditated, state-sponsored murder of Luigi,” Friedman Agnifilo said.

Mangione is currently being held at the Metropolitan Detention Center, a federal jail in Brooklyn.

The Department of Justice (DOJ) alleged last year that Mangione meticulously planned Thompson’s murder over several months “in an effort to initiate a public discussion about the healthcare industry.”

The killing sparked a nearly week-long manhunt that ended with Mangione’s arrest at a fast-food restaurant in Altoona, Pennsylvania. According to the DOJ, Mangione was found with, among other things, a 9 mm pistol and a sound suppressor consistent with the weapon used to kill Thompson, as well as multiple fake IDs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 11:40

 

 

This week, I speak with Jeffrey Becker, Chairman and CEO of Jennison Associates.

Prior to joining Jennison in 2016, Jeff served as the CEO of Voya Investment Management, formerly ING. He held various positions with ING including Vice Chairman, Chief Operating Officer, and Chief Financial Officer. He is a member of the Economic Club of New York and also serves as an Advisory Board member of Institutional Investor’s U.S. Institute. Additionally, he is Vice Chair of the AmeriCares Board of Directors, and Chair of the AmeriCares Free Clinics Board of Directors.

We discuss his path through finance, managing risks in today’s environment, and global trends and opportunities.

A list of his current reading is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Sander Gerber, the CEO/CIO of Hudson Bay Capital. The firm is a global multi-strategy private credit and real estate firm based in Greenwich, with offices in NY, Miami, London, Hong Kong, and Dubai. Founded in June 2005 (with Yoav Roth) they manage $20B in client assets.

 

 

 

Current Reading

 

 

 

The post MiB: Jeffrey Becker, Jennison Associates Chair/CEO appeared first on The Big Picture.

Apple Turbocharges Friendshoring: Your Next iPhone Could Be Made In India

Apple is turbocharging its "friend-shoring" strategy, thanks in large part to President Trump's ongoing trade war with Beijing, by initiating plans to shift all iPhone production for the U.S. market from China to India starting next year, according to the Financial Times, citing sources. The move marks a significant step toward diversifying Apple's supply chain away from China, in an effort to avoid tariffs.

The sources said the continued diversification of the supply chain into India may suggest that iPhone production could be ramped up to 60 million units by the end of 2026, or the amount required to satisfy the U.S. market.

Apple still relies heavily on Chinese suppliers for components, but final assembly is being relocated to Indian facilities operated by Foxconn and Tata Electronics. Unbeknownst to U.S. consumers, Apple has already ramped up production of Indian-made iPhones to avoid the 145% tariffs Trump imposed on China. 

Daniel Newman of the Futurum Group research firm said Tim Cook's friend-shoring of iPhone production out of China to India (for the U.S. market) "is going to be an important move for the company to be able to maintain its growth and momentum," adding, "We are seeing in real time how a company with these resources is moving at relative light speed to address the tariff risk."

In Trump's first term—or around 2017—Apple began manufacturing iPhones in India, starting with the iPhone SE through its manufacturer, Wistron, in Bengaluru. By 2019, Apple had expanded its manufacturing footprint in the country to begin assembling the iPhone XR, and by 2022, it began production of the iPhone 14 in Tamil Nadu. 

The latest data from the International Data Corporation showed that U.S. consumers purchased 28% of Apple's 232.1 million global handset shipments in 2024.

Earlier this month, Trump imposed a reciprocal tariff of 26% on India, although it was paused several days later while New Delhi and Washington negotiators discussed a new trade agreement. U.S. Vice President JD Vance is on a trip this week in India, telling reports that US-India trade talks were making "very good progress."  

For more color on Apple's trading partners and latest shipments, the supply chain platform Sayari shows Apple India Private Limited's activity, sourcing mostly from China...

It only took Trump's trade war to get CEO Tim Cook very serious about diversifying supply chains out of China into friendlier countries. While friend-shoring is a must, what about re-shoring? 

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 11:20

Gold: The Everything Hedge

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

It’s a subject we analyze continually, and we have recommended gold as part of a sound investment portfolio for years. Today the dollar price of gold is hovering near all-time highs over $3,300 per ounce.

Gold has been on a tear lately. It was $1,830 as of October 5, 2023. At today’s prices, that marks a 75% surge in just 18 months. Gold has outperformed stocks by a wide margin this year, but it has also outperformed stocks for the past twenty-five years. Gold was around $250 per ounce in 1999. The gain since then is 1,180% or almost 12 times the starting price.

This is not the first bull market for gold. In the gold bull market of 1971 to 1980, gold rose 2,185%. In the gold bull market of 1999 to 2011, gold rose 670%. There were notable gold bear markets from 1981 to 1999 and again from 2012 to 2015. There were no bull or bear markets before 1971 because the world was on a gold standard and the price was fixed at $35.00 per ounce from 1944 to 1971. Still, the upward trend in gold prices is relentless and undeniable. Taking the entire period from 1971 until today including bull and bear markets gold has risen over 9,000%. Not bad.

Of course, that’s all in the past. What investors want to know is where do we go from here? The short answer is up significantly.

Here’s Why

The most fundamental reason for the rise in gold prices is simple supply and demand. Central banks predominantly from developing markets moved from being net sellers to net buyers of gold in 2010. Total gold reserves of central banks have risen significantly since then from just over 30,000 metric tonnes (mt) to over 35,000mt today.

The top buyers were the central banks of Russia, China, Turkey, Poland and India. Russia increased its reserves by 1,684mt to a total of 2,333mt. China increased its reserves by 1,181mt to a total of 2,235mt. Iran is also a major buyer of gold, but it is non-transparent, and its purchases and reserves are not publicly known.

At the same time gold demand has been growing, gold output is flat. Global mining output of gold was about 130 million ounces in 2018 and was about 120 million ounces in 2024. Output declined slowly from 2018 to 2022 and then recovered slowly over the course of 2023 and 2024 but the change in both directions was slight.

Gold production is projected to grow slightly from today until 2030 but is still not projected to exceed the 2018 high. In short, gold production by miners is flat. This does not mean that we are at “peak gold” or that new discoveries are not being made. They are. What it means is that gold is becoming harder to find and costs of production (especially water and energy) are going up, so the total output trend is flat.

Continually increasing demand with flat output is a recipe for higher gold prices.

The second driver of higher prices is the role of BRICS+. From an original membership of Brazil, Russia, India and China in 2009 (South Africa joined in 2010), the group has expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the UAE. It’s waiting list of additional members who will be added in the years ahead includes Malaysia, Nigeria, Turkey and Vietnam among others.

There was much discussion in 2023 and 2024 about a new BRICS currency that would displace the U.S. dollar in trade among members and might ultimately prove to be an acceptable reserve currency to rival the dollar. In fact, no such alternative currency is in the works. It might happen in the future but it would take ten years or longer properly to design and implement.

Instead, the BRICS are building a new payments system using proprietary cables, secure servers and highly encrypted message traffic protocols along with a blockchain-type ledger. Payments are in local currencies in the new payment channels that cannot be disrupted by western powers.

This begs the question of how trade imbalances accumulating in local currencies can be settled and converted into more liquid assets. The traditional answer was dollars. In short, the BRICS+ already have a new global currency, which is actually quite old – it’s gold. This is one reason why BRICS+ members are among the largest buyers of gold bullion.

The Everything Hedge

Importantly, gold is not just an inflation hedge, in fact it is an imperfect inflation hedge in terms of strict correlation. Gold prices have skyrocketed in recent years even as inflation has remained relatively tame (despite an inflation surge in 2022). A better model is to think of gold as the “everything hedge.”

The vectors of uncertainty are everywhere. These include tariffs, tax policy, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the War in Ukraine, the rise of China, a likely recession, left-wing violence, and even the status of Greenland and the Panama Canal among others.

It’s difficult to forecast how any one of these situations will turn out, let alone all of them and their complex interactions. Stocks and bonds can be volatile as a result. Gold is the one safe haven asset that powers through them all and offers investors some peace of mind. It is truly the everything hedge.

These drivers are sending gold prices higher and putting a floor under current price levels so that investors can enjoy potential upside with reduced concern about the downside. That’s what we call an asymmetric trade, which greatly favors investors.

Finally, there’s a simple bit of math combined with behavioral psychology that could propel gold prices to the $10,000 per ounce level in far less time than most analysts believe.

Investors naturally focus on dollar gains in the price of gold. When gold goes from $1,000 per ounce to $2,000 per ounce, investors cheer on the $1,000 gain. The same is true when gold goes from $2,000 per ounce to $3,000 per ounce. Again, investors pat themselves on the back for another $1,000 per ounce gain.

What investors don’t realize at least initially is that each $1,000 per ounce gain is easier than the one before. This phenomena involves the interaction of simple math and more complicated behavioral psychology.

The psychology is a matter of what’s called anchoring. The investor anchors on the number of $1,000 as a fixed gain and treats each such gain as the same. In pure dollars, they are the same. You make $1,000 per ounce as each benchmark is passed.

But here’s the conversion of those dollar benchmarks with each gain translated from dollars per ounce to percentages of the prior baseline:

Because each $1,000 per ounce gain begins from a higher level, the percentage gain associated with each dollar gain is less. The increase from $1,000 to $2,000 per ounce is a heavy lift. The increase from $9,000 to $10,000 per ounce is not much more than a good month. (Gold has been going up 1% to 2% daily with recent volatility).

This math is what gives rise to a gold buying frenzy. We’re not there yet. Gold buying has been limited mostly to central banks and large institutions such as sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). Retail interest in the U.S. has been slight although retail buyers have been more active in India and China. Once the frenzy kicks in those $1,000 benchmarks will be passed quickly. That’s why it’s not too late to become a gold investor. Don’t kick yourself about the gains you’ve missed. Instead, look forward to the gains that are coming.

How To Invest

The two main ways to invest in gold are what I call paper gold and physical gold bullion. Paper gold refers to securities and futures linked to the price of gold such as exchange-traded funds (GLD is the most liquid ticker), COMEX gold futures or unallocated gold purchase agreements available from large banks. Paper gold will give you price exposure and the potential for gains, but you do not own gold bullion. Many things can go wrong with a paper gold strategy including early termination of contracts, closure of futures exchanges or the failure of a dealer bank. You may find that you’re out of the gold market just when you most want to be in it.

Physical bullion is my preferred way to invest in gold. American Gold Eagle coins from the U.S. Mint in one-ounce or one-quarter ounce denominations are practical. For larger amounts you can look at 1-kilo gold bars from a reputable refiner. Do not buy “rare” or “pre-1933” gold coins unless you are a collector or numismatic expert. The premium for such coins is high and they are not worth the extra expense. Gold is gold.

Do not store your bullion in a safe deposit box. Banks are the first place the government will lock down in a crisis. Your gold could be seized. Use a private storage company like Brinks or install a home safe. If you’re using a home safe there are several techniques you can use to protect it. The best protection is not to tell anyone you have gold. That way no one will come looking.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 11:00

FBI Arrests Wisconsin Judge Accused Of Helping Illegal Immigrant Hide From ICE: Patel

FBI Director Kash Patel announced Friday that the bureau has arrested Judge Hannah Dugan out of Milwaukee, Wisconsin on charges of obstruction, accusing the Dugan of obstructing an arrest of illegal immigrants last week. 

“We believe Judge Dugan intentionally misdirected federal agents away from the subject to be arrested in her courthouse, Eduardo Flores Ruiz, allowing the subject — an illegal alien — to evade arrest,” Patel said in a brief statement shared on X - which was subsequently deleted and re-posted. “Thankfully our agents chased down the perp on foot and he’s been in custody since, but the Judge’s obstruction created increased danger to the public.” 

No word on why Patel's post was removed.

The bombshell arrest comes after radio host Dan O’Donnell reported that a federal investigation had been launched Dugan, who was said to have assisted an illegal alien evading FBI and ICE agents attempting an arrest at the courthouse. The alleged incident occurred after a clerk was notified of federal agents’ arrival to apprehend the illegal alien.

WSAU reports:

She then allegedly allowed the illegal migrant to hide in her jury room, which traditionally is not open for defendant use.

Chief Judge Carl Ashley allowed the agents to enter Dugan’s courtroom after he was presented with a warrant to enter the building and arrest the suspect, which led them to learning of Judge Dugan’s alleged obstruction.

The sources told O’Donnell that Chief Ashley sent an email to his fellow judges explaining the incident and said, “All of the agents’ actions were consistent with our draft policies, but we’re still in the process of conferring on the draft,” to which Judge Dugan responded by claiming that a warrant wasn’t “presented in the hallway of the 6th floor,” where her courtroom is located.

New video from our crews: Milwaukee County Judge Hannah Dugan and her attorney leaving the federal courthouse in Milwaukee and not commenting. The FBI arrested her at the MKE Co Courthouse this morning. She's charged with 2 felonies for obstructing an ICE arrest last week pic.twitter.com/3YtgsNHTJl

— Matt Smith (@mattsmith_news) April 25, 2025

Obstructing federal officers or providing false information in an investigation carries serious penalties. Under 18 USC § 1001, such actions are felonies, punishable by up to five years in prison, or eight if terrorism is involved, WSAU reports.

This incident follows a memo from Gov. Tony Evers’s Department of Administration, advising state employees they can avoid cooperating with federal agents by declining to answer questions or provide access to files or systems without legal counsel, even when presented with a warrant, according to the local news outlet. 

Dugan's arrest follows the arrest of a former New Mexico judge, who is accused of having an alleged Tren de Aragua gang member as a tenant.

Former Doña Ana County Magistrate Joel Cano and his wife, Nancy Cano, were arrested this week at their North Reymond Street home.

The arrests stem from the couple’s ties to Cristhian Ortega-Lopez, an alleged member of the notorious Tren de Aragua gang. As reported by NewsNation affiliate KTSM, Cano rented out a casita on his property to Ortega-Lopez at his wife’s urging last year after she hired the suspect for household chores, the criminal complaint reads. 

Two judges down in the past 24 hours.

Keep it coming.

This is what I voted for. pic.twitter.com/59EO2LYG8V

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) April 25, 2025

*  *   *

Psst! - click here for a sneak peek at new offerings at ZeroHedge Store... 

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 10:40

China May Shift From US Treasuries Toward Crypto, Gold; BlackRock Exec

Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com,

Central banks, particularly China, may start to shift away from US Treasurys, exploring alternatives such as gold and Bitcoin, according to Jay Jacobs, BlackRock’s head of thematics and active ETFs.

In a recent interview with CNBC, Jacobs said that geopolitical tensions and rising global uncertainty are accelerating diversification strategies among central banks.

He pointed to a long-term trend where countries have been reducing their reliance on dollar-based reserves in favor of assets like gold and, increasingly, Bitcoin.

“This whole diversification away from traditional assets and into things like gold and also crypto [...] probably began three, four years ago,” Jacobs explained.

He said that recent geopolitical fragmentation has intensified the push toward alternative stores of value.

Jacobs referenced growing concerns about the freezing of $300 billion in Russian central bank assets following its invasion of Ukraine, suggesting that such events have prompted countries like China to rethink their reserve strategies.

BlackRock executive Jay Jacobs on CNBC. Source: YouTube

Geopolitical fragmentation to shape global markets

During the interview, Jacobs said BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has identified geopolitical fragmentation as a defining force for global markets over the coming decades:

“We really identified geopolitical fragmentation as a mega force that is driving the world forward over the next several decades.”

He noted that this environment is fueling demand for uncorrelated assets, with Bitcoin increasingly viewed alongside gold as a safe-haven asset.

“We’ve seen significant inflows into gold ETFs. We’ve seen significant inflows into Bitcoin. And this is all because people are looking for those assets that will behave differently,” Jacobs said.

Investors highlight Bitcoin decoupling

Notably, Jacobs is not alone in stressing Bitcoin’s declining correlation with US equities. Several analysts have also observed that Bitcoin is beginning to decouple from the US stock market.

On April 22, Alex Svanevik, co-founder and CEO of the Nansen crypto intelligence platform, said Bitcoin’s price is showcasing its growing maturity as a global asset, becoming “less Nasdaq — more gold.”

He added that Bitcoin was “surprisingly resilient” amid the trade war compared to altcoins and indexes like the S&P 500, but remains vulnerable to economic recession concerns.

Source: Alex Svanevik

Echoing this sentiment, QCP Capital said in an April 21 Telegram note that Bitcoin seemed to be sharing some of gold’s limelight as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty.

“With equities finishing last week in the red and extending an April drawdown, the narrative of BTC as a safe haven or inflation hedge is once again gaining traction. Should this dynamic hold, it could provide a fresh tailwind for institutional BTC allocation,” it wrote.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 10:25