Individual Economists

Garmin Boosts Full-Year Forecast As Wearables Earnings Jump

Zero Hedge -

Garmin Boosts Full-Year Forecast As Wearables Earnings Jump

Garmin shares jumped as much as 9.6% in premarket trading after the GPS-device maker delivered a broad beat on second-quarter earnings and raised its full-year outlook.

Garmin produces GPS-enabled electronics and wearable technology across five main markets:

  • Fitness: smartwatches, running watches, cycling computers and activity trackers
  • Outdoor: hiking watches, handheld GPS devices, satellite communicators and dog-tracking systems
  • Aviation: cockpit displays, navigation systems, avionics and flight instruments
  • Marine: chartplotters, sonar, radar, autopilots and fish finders
  • Automotive: vehicle navigation systems, cameras and technology supplied to automakers

The company attributed the outperformance to "strong demand for advanced wearables," particularly within its fitness segment:

Revenue from the fitness segment increased 25% in the second quarter with growth across all product categories, led by strong demand for advanced wearables. Gross and operating margins were 64% and 37%, respectively, resulting in $277 million of operating income.

During the quarter, we launched the Forerunner 70 and Forerunner 170, easy-to-use GPS running smartwatches designed to help runners of all levels reach their goals. In addition, we celebrated Global Running Day and Global Cycling Day with the release of our running and cycling data reports, highlighting how athletes around the world are recording runs and rides. More recently, we announced the CIRQA Smart Band, a screenless wearable that offers rich wellness and fitness insights without requiring a subscription and further expands our addressable market for wellness devices.

Hottest watch on the golf course is the Garmin Approach S70 Golf GPS Watch

Here's a snapshot of second quarter results:

Pro forma EPS $2.81 vs. $2.17 y/y, estimate $2.28

Revenue $2.02 billion, +11% y/y, estimate $1.92 billion

  • Aviation net sales $268.7 million, +7.8% y/y, estimate $265.4 million
  • Fitness net sales $756.8 million, +25% y/y, estimate $670.5 million
  • Outdoor net sales $482.7 million, -1.6% y/y, estimate $477.6 million
  • Marine net sales $341.4 million, +14% y/y, estimate $322.4 million

Operating income $615.5 million, +30% y/y, estimate $486 million

  • Fitness operating income $277 million, +40% y/y, estimate $196.8 million
  • Outdoor operating income $163.6 million, +3.5% y/y, estimate $142.3 million
  • Aviation operating profit $72 million, +14% y/y, estimate $66.7 million
  • Marine operating income $100 million, +59% y/y, estimate $66.6 million

Gross margin 62.4% vs. 58.8% y/y, estimate 58.8%

Here's a snapshot of the full-year forecast:

Sees pro forma EPS $10.00, saw $9.35, estimate $9.62 (Bloomberg Consensus)

Sees revenue about $8.05 billion, saw about $7.9 billion, estimate $7.99 billion 

Sees gross margin 59.7%, saw 58.5%, estimate 58.8%

The report offers a positive outlook on consumer hardware demand, with folks increasingly gravitating toward wearables. It also highlights a growing divergence within the technology sector: while the AI selloff pressures memory-chip producers and hyperscalers, consumer-device companies with strong demand and earnings momentum continue to outperform.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 15:00

The Mamdani Grocery Grift: NYC Mayor Sells Taxpayers A Bill Of Goods On City-Run Stores

Zero Hedge -

The Mamdani Grocery Grift: NYC Mayor Sells Taxpayers A Bill Of Goods On City-Run Stores

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Last week, Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s short stint as a faux president ended with an embarrassing acknowledgment that he could not, as promised during his campaign, arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

So, this week, Mamdani the Grocer made a reappearance, with details on the five city-run grocery stores that he will open.

But rather than deliver discount groceries, Mamdani is selling New Yorkers a bill of goods that will cost them millions.

What Mamdani described was a discount food bank dressed up as a grocery. Standing in front of blackboards saying “REDUCED 30%,” Mamdani sounded like a bodega hawker: “Once a month, our five city-run grocery stores will set prices for this core set of goods at 30% below typical retail prices. No exceptions, no gimmicks”

Here’s the most delicious part: the presser was a gimmick from beginning to end.

The mayor promised that “The savings will last for the entire month. That means no weekly fluctuations or sticker shock at the checkout line — not for our seniors living on fixed incomes, nor for the parents who rely on a regular supply of apple slices to keep toddler tantrums at bay.”

The Mamdani markets are new variations of an old New York grift: selling gold watches for $5.

The dupes want to believe that somehow this street vendor, surreptitiously displaying watches inside his overcoat, actually found a way to sell “solid gold watches” for just a few bucks.

The math simply does not add up for Mamdani.

Most groceries have an average profit margin between 1% and 3%, one of the smallest margins of any industry.

To promise a 30% discount below market rate that cannot be adjusted due to monthly market fluctuations is economically absurd.

It is not a description of a competitive grocery but a public charity. It is a quasi-food bank where taxpayers subsidize the cost.

As usual, Mamdani turns this into a class war, demonizing business owners. He suggests that real grocery stores are simply price gougers hoarding windfall profits from consumers. He ignores that they must pay rent, upkeep and fees — all things the city-run stores may simply write off.

He proclaimed, “May the most affordable grocery store win.”

Of course, the test is not which grocery is the most affordable, but which is the most sustainable. If you are willing to take a bath on sales, you can always offer the most affordable prices for as long as your excess cash holds out.

In Mamdani’s case, he has the credit of New York City to draw on to compete against Mom-and-Pop bodegas.

The subsidy, however, is only part of the costs. The average bodega owner must cover the fixed costs of renting a space, building the store, and complying with inspectors. Those are the fixed costs that must be internalized into the cost of produce to break even.

Real stores are competing in one of the tightest markets in the world and are grappling with a 33% nationwide increase in costs since 2019. Mamdani wants to use the stores to prove that socialism works as part of his effort to introduce New York to the “warmth of socialism.” We may never know the real costs of the Mamdani markets.

According to the New York Post, the city plans to open an East Harlem location as its first store, at a reported cost of $30 million.

However, that is not the full cost.  The Post also reported that the city had already appropriated $25 million to improve the first site. The city will lose millions that could have been acquired through a sale of the land or through rents to private companies. Those costs are left on other ledgers and not likely counted in the true costs of the Mamdani markets.

The first store will not even open until 2027 despite the props behind Mamdani. The second Manhattan store will not open until 2029.  That is three years and tens of millions of dollars for just the first two stores.

That is how Mamdani is promising New Yorkers savings of  “$90 a month, or roughly $1,000 a year.” He is using the city to subsidize food under the guise of selling at low, but still profitable prices. Ironically, those who can take advantage of the subsidy at the first two stores in Manhattan will be anyone, including the privileged, wealthy New Yorkers whom Mamdani denounces for not paying their fair share. After all, everyone wants below-market-priced slices in the Big Apple.

The first city-run grocery, in East Harlem, will cost $30 million to build — and perhaps more. It will never need to pay this money back nor factor it into its prices. The “warmth of socialism” will cover it; that is, you.

In reality, Mamdani will be selling apples at a far greater cost than any competitor, but those true costs will be buried in the city budget and paid for by the taxpayers.

Indeed, the Mamdani markets are likely to prove the most expensive groceries in the city.

Mamdani, however, has never sweated the math or the means. He knows that the focus will be on the cash register price and not the true cost.

Of course, there is a big difference between the gold watch grift and the Mamdani grift: buying a knockoff watch only costs chumps a few bucks. The Mamdani con will cost New Yorkers millions, and most will thank him for it.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the New York Times best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 14:40

Watch Live: Fed Chair Warsh Explains 'Hawkish' Hold

Zero Hedge -

Watch Live: Fed Chair Warsh Explains 'Hawkish' Hold

Having delivered the biggest "non-cut" surprise to markets in decades - by holding rates unchanged (markets were pricing a 35% chance of a hike) - and given Warsh’s distaste for forward guidance, he is unlikely to offer any clearer signals during the press conference.

Bear in mind that since 2015, traders have foreseen the Fed’s ultimate rate decision with an average error of 2.4 basis points the day before the central bank’s announcement, according to a note from Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.

“The market is set up for a sharper kneejerk response to the FOMC announcement than is typically the case,” Lyngen said.

Jonathan Pingle, chief US economist at UBS, said he hadn’t felt this uncertain about an imminent Fed rate decision in 20 years, back when Ben Bernanke became Fed chair.

However, the three dissents in favor of a rate hike clearly show the direction of travel,and that may prove helpful to Warsh if he aims to tamp down inflation pressures.

While yields are down and gold up after the statement, the dissenters would suggest this decision leans hawkish (Goldman expected 2 dissents, so marginally hawkish).

Warsh will likely emphasize that all options remain open, and that future decisions will depend on the data.

Desks anticipate a continued emphasis on the inflation side of the dual mandate, without offering any type of commitment for future hikes, though he might also acknowledge the upside risks to inflation posed by the latest rise in oil prices.

He recently announced the leaders of the five Chairman’s Task Forces for Advancing Monetary Policy and might provide an update on the timeline for their work.

Watch the full press conference live here (due to start at 1430ET):

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 14:25

No Rate-Change Sparks 3 Dissents As Warsh Fed Delivers Biggest 'Non-Cut' Surprise In Decades

Zero Hedge -

No Rate-Change Sparks 3 Dissents As Warsh Fed Delivers Biggest 'Non-Cut' Surprise In Decades

Tl;dr: The Fed held rates unchanged, delivering the biggest surprise "non-cut" to the market in decades. Three dissenters wanted a rate-hike, clearly signaling the direction of travel and confirming this decision as a "hawkish hold" though arguably only marginally.

*  *  *

Since the last FOMC meeting on June 17th (Kevin Warsh's first as Fed Chair), a lot has happened, with the Iran war re-erupting driving oil prices and the dollar higher, while stocks (momo/semis meltdown), bonds, gold, and bitcoin are all lower...

Both growth and inflation macro data has surprised to the downside...

But, oil's resurgence has pushed rate-hike odds significantly higher...

But, this will still be one of the first Fed meetings in years where the market does not have at least 80% confidence in what the committee will do...

One way or another, this will be the largest "non-cut" surprise in decades.

As we detailed earlier, since 2015, traders have foreseen the Fed’s ultimate rate decision with an average error of 2.4 basis points the day before the central bank’s announcement, according to a note from Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.

“The market is set up for a sharper kneejerk response to the FOMC announcement than is typically the case,” Lyngen said.

Jonathan Pingle, chief US economist at UBS, said he hasn’t felt this uncertain about an imminent Fed rate decision in 20 years, back when Ben Bernanke became Fed chair.

A lack of a track record by Warsh and recent divisions among Fed officials are further clouding the outlook, he said, not ruling out a scenario where Warsh is the one who casts the deciding vote.

“Given the fact that he can push around sort of the median of the committee at the moment, he’s going to decide policy for the next few meetings, and we really have no idea how Kevin Warsh thinks about monetary policy.”

Remember, there are/were 9 members of the committee that saw hikes this year...

Most pundits and sell-side analysts see the central bank leaving rates on hold - especially since last month's inflation reports came well below expectations, and there are no dots or forecasts to update this month.

So, with the market pricing a one-third chance of a hike today, what did The Fed decide?

  • *FED VOTES 9-3 TO HOLD BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE

  • *FED: HAMMACK, KASHKARI AND LOGAN DISSENT IN FAVOR OF RATE HIKE

  • *FED REPEATS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IS EXPANDING AT A SOLID PACE

  • *FED REPEATS COMMITTEE WILL DELIVER PRICE STABILITY

  • *FED REPEATS JOB GAINS HAVE KEPT PACE WITH WORKFORCE

The three dissents in favor of a rate hike clearly show the direction of travel.

And that may prove helpful to Warsh if he aims to tamp down inflation pressures.

Read the redline below (not much changed)...

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 14:00

Trump Invites California Teen Lifeguard Who Rescued Boy To White House

Zero Hedge -

Trump Invites California Teen Lifeguard Who Rescued Boy To White House

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

A teen lifeguard, who heroically dove into pounding waves to save a young boy, will be honored by President Donald Trump at the White House.

Lifeguards rescue boy at California beach amid intense waves

"We're going to bring this heroic young man, and his family, into the White House with, perhaps, the boy he saved, to give him a High Civilian Honor," Trump announced on X July 28. "Very brave, he deserves it!"

The lifeguard, Ryder Williams, 16, rescued the 10-year-old boy on July 25 at Seabright Beach, about 6 miles east of the popular Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk and about 60 miles south of San Francisco.

A witness, Scott Vander Dussen, posted the viral video of the rescue on Instagram.

        View this post on Instagram                      

A post shared by Scott Vander Dussen (@santacruznow)

In the clip, Williams is seen running into the rough water before he grabs the boy around the chest. The boy appeared to be exhausted and going limp, and unable to hold onto the lifeguard as relentless waves crashed over them.

The two were overcome with high surf multiple times before Williams was able to pull the boy close enough to the beach to be aided by another lifeguard and members of the public.

"That boy was moments from not coming back," Vander Dussen said in a social media post on X. "A few seconds, a few degrees, a few yards of distance, and this is a very different story with a very different ending."

Vander Dussen told NBC-owned KNTV-TV the waves were at "normal intensity" one moment and then suddenly changed.

"It caught a lot of people off guard," Vander Dussen said. "Unfortunately, this young man was overwhelmed and swept out in just a moment's time. I'm glad it ended the way it did."

A series of tropical storms and hurricanes, including Fausto and Genevieve, has impacted the California coast since late last week, resulting in higher surf and hazardous conditions.

The National Weather Service issued a beach hazard advisory this week for the central California coastline. Forecasters warned of an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Breaking waves could reach up to 10 feet along some beaches, the weather service said.

"Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean," the advisory read.

California State Parks, which operates the lifeguard program at Santa Cruz, said thousands of ocean rescues happen every year.

"Our State Park lifeguards courageously risk their own lives every day to keep our visitors safe," California State Parks spokesman Tyler Hersko told The Epoch Times. "Their dedication never goes unnoticed and they are truly heroes to their local communities, Californians and the nation."

The department employs about 600 seasonal lifeguards every summer and about 70 permanent lifeguards who make about 10,000 rescues every year, according to Hersko.

Since the start of the month, the lifeguards have made 3,600 rescues and provided 1,600 cases of medical aid.

State Parks didn't say whether Williams had accepted the president's invitation to the White House.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 13:25

From Momentum To Mayhem: Korean 'Plunge Protectors' Meet As Leverage Unwind Sparks Chaos

Zero Hedge -

From Momentum To Mayhem: Korean 'Plunge Protectors' Meet As Leverage Unwind Sparks Chaos

'Leverage goes both ways...'

That is a lesson that many are learning in a painful manner as the army that enjoyed the momentum escalator ride up are now decrying the elevator plunge lower... and the poster-child for this pain is Korea.

Following anxiety over new Chinese competition, and disappointing earnings from SK Hynix overnight, Korea's stock market has plunged 44% from its record highs in June (but remains up 27% YTD still)...

Triggering yet another circuit-breaker...

And prompting panic among Korean regulators:

As Bloomberg reportsSouth Korea will hold an emergency meeting Wednesday evening to discuss the market situation after a stocks rout that has wiped billions of dollars off investors’ holdings. The meeting, hosted by Finance Minister Koo Yun Cheol, will involve all of the country’s top financial authorities, starting from 6 p.m. local time, according to lawmaker Yoo Dong-soo.

Top administration officials faced multiple rounds of questioning by lawmakers at the country’s parliament Wednesday.

Lawmakers have linked the rout in part to South Korea’s rollout of leveraged single-stock products in May.

As CNBC reports, South Korea’s finance minister apologized on Wednesday after retail investors racked up heavy losses from leveraged bets on stocks, following rule changes earlier this year.

The May 27 introduction of single-stock leveraged Exchange Traded Funds has seen Korean retail investors pile in with net purchases of 14 trillion won ($9.7 billion), compared with roughly 2 trillion won by foreign investors, according to KB Financial Group.

But the speculative trading boom that helped fuel one of the world’s hottest equity markets has resulted in those investors nursing heavy losses as Korea’s Kospi index has experienced a sharp correction, led by a downturn in chip stocks.

“We’ve already put in place a package of measures, but if it’s needed we’ll introduce additional steps to help normalize the market,” Koo told lawmakers Wednesday.

Cue - the plunge protectors.

Rubbing salt into into the wounds, The FT reports that The Bank of England is probing the rapid growth of exposure to Asian equities among investment banks operating in London, as officials seek to avoid a build-up of highly concentrated bets on a few AI-linked companies.

The BoE’s Prudential Regulation Authority, which supervises UK banks, has launched a review of lenders’ prime brokerage operations in London to check whether they are taking on excessively concentrated exposures to Asian equities, according to people briefed on the move.

When the BoE believes prime brokers are taking on excessive risks, its supervisors can increase the amount of liquid assets they are required to hold to help them survive a potential market sell-off or the collapse of a large client.

...which would be yet another forced deleveraging event for those Korean/Asian equity market investors.

On the potentially bright side, Goldman Sachs' Alvin So - who has been tracking the Korean leveraged ETF market like a hawk - notes that a great deal of the exposure to levered Korean ETFs has already been unwound...

Incorporating today's price action, Korea-focused leveraged ETF AUM has declined to US$15–16bn (~70% domestically listed), equivalent to roughly 1.5% of Korean free float on a leveraged-exposure basis.

This is down 70%+ from the peak of US$53bn (3.2% of free float) on June 22.

Over the same period, Korean equities have declined by 40%.

We have also started to see net outflows from these products over the past two weeks (-US$2bn, as of yesterday), despite +US$8-9bn of buy-the-dip inflows between June 22 and July 15. 

“The deleveraging and selloff in Korea have increasingly taken on a life of their own,” said Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management.

“Concerns about excessive optimism around AI initially triggered the correction in semiconductor stocks, but the latest acceleration lower looks less driven by fundamentals and more by positioning, forced selling and investor psychology.”

Circling back to the carnage, unless the market stages a meaningful bounce over the next two trading days, the KOSPI is set for its worst month ever.

Korean opposition lawmakers questioned why the levered products were introduced at an unusual speed despite concerns from much of the asset-management industry, arguing officials prioritized efforts to boost stock prices over market stability.

“The country has turned into a casino,” People Power Party lawmaker Lee Jongwook told Koo during the hearing.

“These are products that should never have been allowed onto the market. I consider this a policy failure.”

Funny, we didn't hear you complaining on the way up??

We give the last word to Goldman Sachs Korean traders who noted that despite foreign flows switching to net sellers, they did not sense any material change in flow snapshot throughout the day, as it continued to be two-way but better sell skewed in memory. The Goldman desk also notably caught some dip buyers in memory intraday, so would not necessarily distinguish flow today as 'capitulation'.

This is far from over as the degenerate gamblers keep catching that falling knife...

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 12:35

FDA Panel Backs Wider Access To Six Peptide Therapies, Citing Grey Market Concerns

Zero Hedge -

FDA Panel Backs Wider Access To Six Peptide Therapies, Citing Grey Market Concerns

Via American Greatness,

A Food and Drug Administration (FDA) advisory panel has voted to recommend expanding legal access to six popular peptide compounds. Supporters say it could pull patients out of the unregulated grey market that has flourished under years of federal inaction.

The FDA's Pharmacy Compounding Advisory Committee reviewed seven peptides during a two-day hearing in Maryland last week, weighing whether each should be added to the agency's Section 503A Bulks List. Reuters reported the panel voted in favor of moving six forward: BPC-157 for ulcerative colitis, TB-500 and KPV for wound healing, MOTS-c for obesity and osteoporosis, Semax for cerebral ischemia, migraine and trigeminal neuralgia, and Epitalon for insomnia.

Peptides are short chains of amino acids that help regulate metabolism, growth and tissue repair, according to the Cleveland Clinic. Some, including insulin and GLP-1 weight loss drugs, are already FDA approved, while others have remained in regulatory limbo even as demand exploded among patients seeking help with weight loss, muscle building, chronic disease and performance.

If the FDA ultimately adopts the recommendation, licensed compounding pharmacies could prepare the peptides for valid prescriptions, giving patients a legitimate alternative to unregulated online vendors who have filled the gap left by federal delay.

Jim LaValle, a Texas based clinical pharmacist who chairs the International Peptide Society and testified at the hearings, said the vote was not a rubber stamp but a meaningful step toward accountability. "This was not FDA approval, nor was it a blanket endorsement of every peptide, every use or unrestricted access," he told Fox News Digital. "I have said throughout this process that you do not solve a quality problem by forcing the market underground."

LaValle said he was encouraged because the recommendation creates a path away from unverified research use only products and toward oversight by qualified clinicians and licensed pharmacies. He described the right model as access paired with guardrails: trained clinicians, licensed pharmacies, validated quality testing and consistent patient follow up.

"My hope is that the FDA follows the recommendation with a transparent, science-driven process, establishes clear, peptide-specific standards, and follows the guidance for approving a substance that meets the FDA's current regulations," LaValle said, adding that the process should include verifying that both active ingredients and finished products meet quality standards and tracking any side effects.

LaValle cautioned that the committee's vote is only a recommendation, not final FDA approval, and that compounded medications are regulated differently than fully approved drugs. He urged patients to avoid research use only products sold online and to work only with licensed clinicians and pharmacies. "The peptide revolution is here," he said. "However, don't expect miracles. Better choices related to diet, exercise, gut health, sleep, stress and managing metabolic health, guided by regular lab assessments, should be the goal."

The FDA will now weigh the recommendation before issuing a final decision.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 12:05

NANO Nuclear Expands Air Force Footprint With Second AFWERX Award

Zero Hedge -

NANO Nuclear Expands Air Force Footprint With Second AFWERX Award

NANO Nuclear Energy has been selected for a new AFWERX Small Business Innovation Research Phase I award, giving the company another opportunity to advance its KRONOS MMR Energy System with the Department of the Air Force.

The new Phase I award is framed as a broad research and development agreement. NANO said the contract is focused on using KRONOS to “address the most pressing challenges in the DAF [Department of the Air Force].”

The distinction between this award and NANO’s previous Air Force contract is worth noting. 

Last year’s roughly $1.25 million Direct-to-Phase II award was tied to a specific objective: studying the feasibility of deploying a KRONOS MMR at Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling in Washington, DC. That work examines the base’s energy requirements, grid vulnerabilities, siting options, environmental considerations and regulatory pathways.

Rather than evaluating a reactor for one predetermined location, the new engagement could give NANO a wider platform to demonstrate how KRONOS might support energy resilience across additional Air Force installations and potentially other defense applications. It arrives as the military is moving ahead with microreactor projects at several bases, reflecting growing concern over fragile commercial grids and the need for dependable, on-site power.

Of course, an early-stage government award should not be confused with a reactor purchase order. There is still plenty of engineering, licensing and bureaucracy standing between an SBIR contract and an operating nuclear plant.

Still, NANO now has multiple active Air Force engagements instead of a single feasibility study. The earlier Phase II contract gave the company a concrete deployment target, while this broader Phase I award could give it something potentially more valuable over the long run.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 11:45

War Path Or Deal? Trump Threatens To Hit Iran 'Hard' As Netanyahu Meeting Details Emerge

Zero Hedge -

War Path Or Deal? Trump Threatens To Hit Iran 'Hard' As Netanyahu Meeting Details Emerge Summary
  • Trump weighs deal, sanctions, or strikes on Iran as Saudis-US hit Iraqi militants.
  • Tehran denies seeking talks, insists on Hormuz terms.
  • Oil climbs as attacks on Saudi energy sites continue.
  • Conflict widens with joint US-Saudi strikes in Iraq which killed at least 20.
//--> //--> //--> Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes 25% · No 76%
View full market & trade on Polymarket *  *  *
Details of Trump-Netanyahu Meeting at Oval Finally Emerging

After on Tuesday President Trump hosted both Zelensky and Netanyahu in the Oval Office there were no big press conferences or readouts given. But on Wednesday some key statements have begun to emerge concerning what was discussed, but at this point only offered via the Israeli side...

To be expected, Iran and the nuclear question dominated the discussions, according to i24's Ariel Oseran, with Israeli officials describing a White House focused on three possible paths forward. "Trump is weighing three options: a nuclear deal, maintaining and intensifying the economic blockade, or renewed military strikes," one official said, adding, "We didn't tell Trump Israel's preference is a strike. Our preference is the outcome. The decision is ultimately his."

...talk about stating the obvious. But Israeli still maintains that the situation is at tipping point inside Iran, which according to more independent 'realist' analysts seems highly dubious.

Israeli officials argued that Tehran is under mounting internal strain. "Iran is under severe economic pressure" due to fuel and diesel shortages, roughly 90% inflation, and "the beginning of public protests." They added, "We discussed increasing pressure on Iran, both economically and kinetically."

On Iran's leadership, officials said, "We know for certain Mujtaba is alive, but since Operation Rising Lion no one has seen him." Regarding Iran's military capabilities, they claimed, "Iran now has only 1,500–1,600 missiles left after we destroyed much of its production capability."

Expletives fly and Trump talks 'tough' - but this whole gambit has been a bombing campaign in search of a strategy...

Addressing the nuclear program, Israeli officials (somewhat surprisingly) assessed, "We currently do not assess that uranium enrichment is taking place at Pickaxe Mountain, and we have good intelligence on Iran's nuclear material." They also asserted, "Eliminating 29 nuclear scientists was our insistence. It removed a critical mass of knowledge from Iran's nuclear program." This comes just after Trump vowed to wipeout the highly fortified facility, which would be a tall order given that it's essentially under a mountain.

Looking ahead, they warned, "If Iran tries to rebuild its nuclear program, we will strike the 'metastases' as well." Israeli officials also said they remain skeptical of diplomacy, telling reporters, "We told President Trump we have serious doubts about reaching a nuclear deal with Iran."

As of yet, the White House has not offered a detailed readout of the Netanyahu discussion from the US point of view, however. Regional reports say some IRGC advisors were killed in the fresh US-Saudi operation in Iraq.

Iran Again Denies Trump Claims it is Urging US Talks

The few days of calm that persisted over last weekend since Friday are already a thing of the past, as tit-for-tat serious attacks between the US and Iran return, and now involving the Saudis and proxy militants in Iraq.

The fresh flare-up started as we reported when in the overnight and early hours of Wednesday (local) Iran launched several missiles on a US base in Jordan, with the Jordanian armed forces saying they intercepted five projectiles. Iran is framing this as new action due to US military activities enforcing the blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz.

For many hours prior to that new Iranian assault, which was accompanied by launches out of Iraq on Saudi energy sites, international headlines claimed that mediators were getting close to restoring the defunct Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).

As if to confirm that those headlines were nowhere close to reality, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi has recalled President Trump's words claiming that Tehran was "dying for a negotiation"; but, said Gharibabadi, "We have sent no request for negotiation with the US during the past 16–17 days."

Aftermath of strikes on the Saudi Aramco refinery in Jizan from days ago, via AFP

The Iranians have continued to insist that its own terms for strait management will be the end result of this war. "If the Strait of Hormuz returns to its previous state, our success in this war is not complete," the Iranian diplomat said. He said this will include Iran's right to charge fees to allow ships safe passage.

Trump: "We'll Be Hitting Iran Hard" (Fox)

As for the renewed battle, President Trump has newly warned in a statement to Fox News that "we'll be hitting Iran hard" in response to the new attacks on American targets in Jordan.

The new expanded nature and scope of the war has seen Saudi Arabia jump directly in against Iran-backed Shia paramilitary groups in Iraq, as well as the Shia Houthis of Yemen.

Oil continues to climb on the escalation headlines...

Rare Major Saudi-US Joint Strikes on Iraqi Militias

Rare and major joint US-Saudi strikes on Iraq have killed at least 20 militants, and wounded 32 more, according to Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), as cited in Al Jazeera:

In an earlier statement, the PMF – which is an umbrella group for Iraqi militias backed, trained and loyal to Iran, said the attacks represent a “highly dangerous escalation” and a violation of Iraq’s sovereignty and official security institutions.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a self-proclaimed resistance armed group backed by Iran, denied any role in the attacks on Saudi Arabia. It said Saudi claims were “fabrications” and that “any foolish Saudi action will be met with a harsh response”.

CENTCOM acknowledged that operation as a response to this weeks attacks on Saudi infrastructure, marking the first major US military action in the Middle East since last Friday when Trump first declared a pause after the 13 prior straight days of fighting. Trump had noted in the Fox comments that the Saudi and US attacks were coordinated with Iraq.

Ironically this comes at a time the Iraqi government has sought to appease Washington by overseeing a voluntary disarming program of its Shia factions. It has remained an open question to what degree this will actually be carried out.

Saudi Arabia's Defense Ministry issued a statement saying the offensive was "in response ⁠to recent drone attacks" on the kingdom. During those attacks, the Saudi military "intercepted and destroyed several drones that attempted to target petroleum facilities in the Eastern Province and Riyadh regions…. launched from Iraqi territory and carried out by Iran-aligned terrorist militias." It added that "The Kingdom emphasizes that it does not seek escalation but will respond to any aggression it faces."

Meanwhile Trump continues to talk about taking out Iran's highly fortified Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility:

Tehran has has responded by condemning the "clear aggression against the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iraq." Iran said the new US-Saudi joint action was "in line with the aspirations of the United States and the Zionist regime to expand the scope of war," according to the Foreign Ministry.

Iran has pledged its support to its allies in Iraq: "While expressing condolences for the martyrdom of a group of honorable Iraqi people during these aggressive attacks, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasizes the full support and solidarity of the Islamic Republic of Iran with the government and people of Iraq, and holds the warmongering US regime and its accomplices in the region responsible for the dangerous consequences of these criminal, inhumane, and provocative actions," it added.

War Persists Through November Midterms?

Below, University of Chicago political scientist and foreign policy realist author Robert Pape that the war will stumble along and likely expand even through the midterms...

"The victory rhetoric [from Trump] doesn't match escalation reality," he said. "It is out of sync."

While Pape stopped short of predicting a yearslong conflict, he said meaningful policy changes are unlikely before the political landscape shifts after the midterm elections.

"I think it will actually be after the midterms," he said. "Between now and January, this is not going to be over."

Overnight developments 

via Newsquawk...

  • US CENTCOM said US and Saudi forces strike Iran-backed terrorist sites in Iraq.
  • Iranian state TV cites an unnamed military source stating that Iran denies any link to projectiles fired from other countries at targets in Saudi Arabia.
  • Chinese Foreign Ministry denies reported that Iran will received Chinese-made man-portable air defence systems in the coming weeks.
  • Iran official said Oman proposal for Hormuz Strait joint regional management is to fail.
  • Iran will get Chinese shoulder launched missile systems in weeks, according to Reuters.
  • US President Trump said in a tele-rally that Iran wants to make a deal so badly, adds we'll get Iran to sign on the dotted line and we'll get the war over with.
  • US CENTCOM said at 17.45EDT, IRGC forces launch multiple ballistic missiles from Iran and all Iranian missiles were effectively intercepted.
  • US official said Iran launched missiles at a US base in Jordan, but noted missiles were intercepted, according to Axios.
  • Iran considered retaliatory strike on Ukrainian seaport, although a flurry of diplomacy has eased tensions, according to NYT citing officials.
  • US official said Iran is over reaching with demands that Oman, US and the international community are rightly rejecting on Strait of Hormuz. Deal being discussed is a coordination deal, there are no tolls and no fees.
  • Iraq PM's planned visit to Saudi Arabia tomorrow has been cancelled, Iraqi government source tells Al-Araby.
  • A senior Iranian official said Tehran has rejected Oman's proposal for regional joint management of the Strait of Hormuz as unworkable, reported suggest.
  • Iraqi sources said US and Saudi Arabia targeted a mosque and water purification plant in Baghdad.
  • IRGC noted that 3 tankers were hit and seized in the Hormuz Strait, adds US interference in the region will not go unanswered.
  • Explosions were heard in south Baghdad, while reported noted US and Saudi strike in Kirkuk and Salah Al-Din.
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu said meeting with Trump is one of the best we've had.
  • IRGC confirmed that they fired ballistic missiles at the US Air Base and US Military Central Command Center in Jordan.
  • US President Trump posted that he had a very good meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu and many important subjects were discussed.
  • Explosions reported in Al-Suwayrah, Wasit province South of Baghdad.
  • Source circulates 'footage of a direct hit on Muwaffaq Al Salti Air Base in Jordan'.
  • IRIB reported explosions in Jordanian airspace and that US base in Jordan was possibly targeted.
  • Iranian media sources report explosions in US base in Jordan due to Iranian missile attack.
  • Three Japanese-linked vessels have exited the Strait of Hormuz via Iran's designated route, Kyodo reported.
  • An Israeli military source said Defence Minister Katz disclosed operational details about the takeoff of US fighter jets from Israel to carry out strikes on Iran, Al Hadath reported.
  • Several loud explosions are being reported in Jordan, according to Nour News.
  • Sources said Yemen's Houthis are considering imposing fees on commercial ships transiting the southern Red Sea.
Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 11:35

Ukraine's FM Claims Attack On Iranian Ship In Caspian Sea Was 'Unintentional'

Zero Hedge -

Ukraine's FM Claims Attack On Iranian Ship In Caspian Sea Was 'Unintentional'

The week started with a bizarre incident in the Caspian Sea involving an Iranian commercial vessel and the Iranian military, an episode which threatened to expand the war by merging two conflict theatres.

Iran had accused Ukraine of attacking an Iranian commercial vessel by long-range drone in the Caspian Sea on Saturday, which resulted in an explosion that killed one sailor and injured another.

Soon after, Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Ukraine’s chargé d’affaires in Tehran to severely protest the "hostile and criminal" attack, IRNA reported.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has warned that the "blatant UN Charter violation" which was "done at Israel's behest" could serve to "drag Europe into its war." Araghchi also denounced and attacked Zelensky personally, calling him the "freeloader in Kyiv".

But on Tuesday, there was a rapid walk-back and climb-down of sorts regarding the whole murky incident.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi newly stated that Ukraine's foreign minister assured him that the Ukrainian drone attack on the Iranian commercial vessel was "unintentional".

via Mappr

"Was assured by Ukrainian FM [Andrii Sybiha] that the attack on an Iranian ship was unintentional and Ukraine seeks no escalation," Araghchi wrote on X. "Iran does not seek escalation either, but made clear any attack on our citizens or interests is unacceptable. There must be restitution for losses."

Ukraine's top diplomat Andrii Sybiha‎ in turn didn't exactly deny it was an intentional attack; however, he did acknowledge that a civilian vessel was struck, and not a military one.

"I reiterated that all of Ukraine’s actions are aimed solely at defending our country from Russian aggression and never intended to target civilian vessels or people," Sybiha said after a call with Araghchi.

"This is also true with regard to Iran’s statements about their national who died and a civilian vessel that was targeted in a recent incident. Our goal is to counter Russian aggression, which is the root cause of all incidents, and it is Russia who bears full responsibility for all provocations and casualties," he added.

So it seems the two sides have agreed to downplay the attack incident and just move on. And yet what makes this bizarre and unexpected is that Ukraine seemed to initially be openly boasting of the escalation.

President Zelensky himself announced soon after on X, "We also have very good results from long-range strikes in the waters of the Caspian Sea. In particular, these are vessels that were involved in transporting military cargo from Iran, and a warship."

It is also perplexing how a long-range drone attack on a maritime vessel, presumably hundreds of miles away and which would require very precision targeting, could result in a direct hit and yet be 'unintentional'.

Anonymous (not verified) Wed, 07/29/2026 - 11:25

New Jersey Rejects DOJ's Request For Records On Noncitizen Voter Registration Error

Zero Hedge -

New Jersey Rejects DOJ's Request For Records On Noncitizen Voter Registration Error

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times,

New Jersey is refusing to hand over information to the U.S. Department of Justice involving a voter registration error that allowed thousands of noncitizens to register to vote in the state.

The DOJ requested the full names, dates of birth, nationalities, residential addresses, and registration dates and locations of 6,600 people involved in the error.

New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill rejected the DOJ’s request for the data, saying in a letter on Tuesday that state and federal privacy laws prohibit releasing it.

“The request had no legal basis, and I will always protect New Jerseyans’ personally identifiable information,” Sherrill said on X.

Harmeet K. Dhillon, the assistant attorney general for civil rights at the DOJ, said the governor’s “refusal to cooperate with federal law enforcement does nothing to protect law-abiding NJ voters.”

“NJ has a legal duty to keep ineligible voters off its rolls, & our request is grounded in that legal authority. DOJ will get this information through all legal means!” she said Tuesday in a post on X.

Sherrill said on July 21 that approximately 6,600 people who indicated they were not U.S. citizens were mistakenly registered to vote because of a software flaw in the state’s Motor Vehicle Commission system.

According to Sherrill, the error affected applicants between June 2023 and June 2024, during the previous administration. While applying for driver’s licenses or state identification cards, the individuals selected “no” when asked on a keypad whether they were U.S. citizens, but they were nevertheless added to the voter rolls due to the software issue.

The governor said a preliminary review found that fewer than 400 of those improperly registered ultimately cast ballots. Those voters included Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated voters and were spread across New Jersey.

Sherrill said she has directed her chief counsel to investigate how the mistake happened and instructed election officials to remove anyone who was improperly placed on the voter rolls during that timeframe. She said the software problem was corrected in June 2024 but that she only recently became aware of it.

The governor also said the Motor Vehicle Commission administrator she appointed has started replacing the vendor that managed the system.

However, a company that has worked with the New Jersey Motor Vehicle System for more than 40 years suggested the New Jersey government was responsible for the noncitizens being placed on the state’s voter rolls.

IDEMIA, an identification software provider, told The Epoch Times July 22 that the individuals disclaimed U.S. citizenship but also said they indicated “Yes” to wanting to register to vote.

“The voter registration information is transmitted to the New Jersey Department of State, Division of Elections, which is ultimately responsible for verifying eligibility to vote,” the company stated. “Information submitted by IDEMIA must still be validated and adjudicated by the Division of Elections.”

The governor said in the July 21 announcement that she was “appalled” by the failures that allowed the error to occur and vowed that those responsible would be held accountable.

She also accused the Trump administration of trying to “weaponize elections for political gain.”

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has found that about 278,000 noncitizens were illegally registered to vote in U.S. federal elections after reviewing voter rolls from several states that cooperated and turned over data, according to the White House.

The White House said earlier this month the actual number could be higher because some states did not share their voter files with the federal agency.

The Trump administration has been involved in lawsuits with several states involving access to voter registration rolls.

In April, a U.S. District judge dismissed a lawsuit the Trump administration had filed in Massachusetts to get access to unredacted voter rolls.

The White House said the error in New Jersey “is the direct result of Democrat policies that refuse basic citizenship checks—and exactly why Congress must pass the SAVE America Act immediately,” in a July 21 statement.

The SAVE America Act is a bill that would mandate proof of U.S. citizenship while registering to vote in federal elections, require photo ID verification to vote, and restrict the use of mail-in ballots.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 10:45

WTI Holds Spike After Big Crude Draw, SPR Drain Continues As Cushing Stocks Stuck At 'Tank Bottoms'

Zero Hedge -

WTI Holds Spike After Big Crude Draw, SPR Drain Continues As Cushing Stocks Stuck At 'Tank Bottoms'

Oil prices are jumping higher after the U.S. military intercepted Iranian ballistic missiles aimed at American forces in Jordan.

Shortly after the surprise attack, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia launched strikes in Iraq against Iran-backed groups that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps previously directed to attack American troops and Saudi energy infrastructure.

As Barron's Patrick O'Donnell reports, the escalation in hostilities hit market hopes that the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway would reopen. More than a quarter of the world's crude usually passes through the shipping channel and tanker traffic remains essentially halted.

"These developments throw cold water on the idea of a swift de-escalation in the Persian Gulf," analysts at ING said.

"Clearly, with Saudi oil infrastructure increasingly targeted, the risk of more prolonged supply disruptions grows."

President Trump this morning threatened to hit Iran “hard,” while the US and Saudi Arabia retaliated against militia and weapons sites in Iraq linked to Tehran.

Overnight, we saw API report a sizable crude draw but product builds (as the crack spread has eased somewhat)...

API

  • Crude -3.3mm

  • Cushing -300k

  • Gasoline +900k

  • Distillates +400k

DOE

  • Crude -7.17mm

  • Cushing -771k

  • Gasoline +7k

  • Distillates +1.06mm

The official DoE data shows a much larger crude drawdown than expected, and another drop in the stocks at the crucial Cushing Hub. Products saw small builds...

The Trump administration continues to drain the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

Cushing stocks remain near 'tank bottoms'...

US crude production remains just off record highs...

WTI is holding back above $84.50...

Finally, as Bloomberg's Michael Ball notes, the selloff earlier in the week was driven more by liquidation than normalization. Observable Hormuz traffic remains impaired, insurers and shipowners are cautious, not only through the Strait but now in the Red Sea. Trend-following funds cut Brent length sharply, while falling aggregate open interest shows positions were closed into heavy volume earlier in the week before the latest escalation.

The curve and options markets tell a similar story. Brent and WTI backwardation narrowed as longer-dated spreads fell to their weakest since mid-July, reflecting less urgency around prompt supply. Brent implied volatility dropped this week before firming again overnight. However, call skew retained an upside bias, something be justified by oil prices on the rise again.

The tighter market is in products. The European gasoil crack has surged above $70 a barrel as refiners run near capacity, with diesel and jet supplies constrained by outages, shipping risks and reduced Russian exports.

Crude stocks can rebuild quickly; refining capacity cannot. Headline prices remain sensitive to kinetic and diplomatic developments, while product scarcity and impaired shipping mean the bottom of a developing trading range will be higher than the recent lows suggest for now.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 10:36

An Interesting Divergence Is Emerging Between The Fed And Other Central Banks

Zero Hedge -

An Interesting Divergence Is Emerging Between The Fed And Other Central Banks

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

Circle Of Life

Active Brent crude futures fell by almost 5% yesterday as the US extended its pause on striking Iran. Donald Trump had indicated that the lull was underway to give diplomacy another chance, claiming that the US was in “very deep talks” with Iran but that his patience for progress was short, saying “either it goes fast or not at all.”

Brent has opened more than 3% higher this morning to follow overnight gains in WTI prices following Iranian missile strikes on a US base in Jordan – the first Iranian attacks since the recent ‘pause’ began – and joint strikes by the US and Saudi Arabia on Iran-backed militants in Iraq. Those Saudi-US came in retaliation for strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu met with President Trump at the White House yesterday where the potential normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia was reportedly discussed.

Equity markets saw divergence yesterday between semiconductor stocks and value plays. South Korea’s KOSPI closed the day down 10.84% after triggering a market circuit-breaker early in the session, while Taiwan’s TAIEX index fell by 4.65%. Korean tech leaders Samsung and SK Hynix both fell by more than 10% as the latter posted record earnings but fell short of analyst estimates.

The chip selloff extended over to US markets, seeing the NASDAQ 100 fall by almost 1% to be off by close to 10% since the June highs. Sandisk, Seagate and Micron technologies were among the worst performers. The explanation offered by various newswires is that investors are becoming anxious about the large CAPEX programs of chip companies, including the ‘circle of life’ series of acquisitions and equity investments across the sector that critics suggest are keeping equity prices inflated beyond reasonable levels and raising the stakes for upcoming earnings reports.

Meanwhile, European stock indices were broadly higher, the S&P500 lifted 0.2% and the Dow Jones closed more than 1% higher. Among Asian indices the Australian ASX200 was a conspicuous outperformer, helped along by a relative paucity of tech names and an 8.6% gain for Viva Energy, who operates one of only two Australian oil refineries and reported an expected doubling of first-half earnings off the back of stronger refining margins. The expected earnings boost comes despite a 2% drop in fuel sales in the June quarter vs the prior corresponding period (June 2025). This was driven by a 4.7% drop in commercial and industrial fuel volumes, which might provide an insight into broader economic activity.

While geopolitical concerns simmer away, market attention will turn today to the FOMC, who meet to decide on the appropriate level of the Fed Funds rate. The overnight index swaps market currency has a touch over 8bps worth of rate hike priced-in for this meeting. The September meeting is now fully-priced for a 25bp hike, with another hike in the curve for March next year. In reality, few expect the Fed to raise rates at this meeting (we certainly do not), though we may see some FOMC members dissent in favour of lifting rates.

An interesting divergence is now emerging between the Fed under Kevin Warsh and other central banks. Warsh’s predilection for the Fed to “say less” contrasts with the approach of the RBA, who are busily implementing review findings encouraging better communication. The RBA recently published results of a survey it conducted which made the groundbreaking discovery that households’ primary economic concern is the rising cost of living (inflation) and that many individuals don’t have a firm grasp on the esoterics of monetary policy.

Given that the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission is related to the credibility of the central bank, the RBA views this as a problem for it to solve by communicating more effectively. Might we expect set-piece speeches like Governor Bullock’s appearance in support of the Anika Foundation yesterday to give way to TikToks?

Warsh, on the other hand, seems to take the view that the wizard retains more power if he remains behind the curtain. Saying less would neatly resolve the risk central bankers face of painting themselves into a corner when goaded into issuing forward guidance by enthusiastic journalists.

Bullock spent much of her speech yesterday rehashing the theme of repeated international shocks buffeting the supply side of the economy. Though Australia carried plenty of inflation momentum into the current oil shock, a tightening of global energy supplies has certainly exacerbated the problem and would have figured in the RBA’s decisions to raise the policy rate in March and May. There was some good news on the inflation front today though, with headline CPI in the year to June printing two ticks below market expectations at 3.8% and the core reading printing one tick lower than expected at 3.6%. The AUD and short sovereign yields are down substantially on the news.

Ultimately the great hope for overcoming the deleterious effects of geopolitical shocks on living standards is through strong productivity growth at home. AI holds the prospect of being something of a white knight on that score, but outside the US productivity growth remains anaemic and the link between huge AI CAPEX and improved productivity outcomes does not seem to be established in the top level data just yet.

While the promise is certainly there, the investment needs to result in inputs being converted to outputs more efficiently, and the physical materials needed for the fixed capital need to actually be available. In an age where semiconductor supply chains are being disrupted by energy and trade shocks, and important base materials like aluminium, copper, helium and nickel are physically constrained in the Strait of Hormuz shock (to say nothing of ongoing labour constraints!), converting those ‘circle of life’ CAPEX numbers into actual production might be easier said than done.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 10:30

BMW Targets 8,000 Job Cuts With New Voluntary Severance Package

Zero Hedge -

BMW Targets 8,000 Job Cuts With New Voluntary Severance Package

BMW shares in Germany are down 36% so far this year, as the automaker's latest forecast downgrade was described by JPMorgan analyst Jose Asumendi as a "wake-up call for the auto industry."

The outlook for BMW continues to deteriorate, with Bloomberg reporting that the automaker will begin a sweeping workforce restructuring in Germany this fall.

Voluntary departures in Germany are expected to account for most of the roughly 8,000 positions BMW plans to eliminate globally, equivalent to about 5% of its workforce. The restructuring is aimed at reducing costs and strengthening the automaker's ability to compete with fast-growing Chinese rivals.

The report continued:

The offer will go out to staff in research, development, planning and other corporate functions, with factory floor workers not eligible, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the plans aren't public. BMW also is looking to streamline its management ranks in the coming months as part of the broader cuts, they said. 

The job reduction program will begin in October and run through 2027, with BMW anticipating a boost in profitability in 2028.

Shares in Frankfurt are marginally higher on the news after tumbling 36% so far this year, but they have stabilized over the last month around 60 euros per share.

This comes after last month's profit warning, in which a JPM analyst described the downgrade as a major "wake-up call for the auto industry" and warned that the German luxury automaker must address its compact-segment product strategy in China, where European premium automakers have been priced out of the market.

Asumendi called the downgrade a "radical earnings cut" but noted that BMW is generally executing well. He believes the automaker will likely take one-time charges to downsize its global production footprint, with a particular focus on Europe.

The restructuring comes as BMW contends with sliding sales in China and intensifying competition from EV manufacturers led by BYD, both in Europe and abroad. These pressures reflect a broader deterioration across Europe's auto industry, where soft demand, elevated production costs, and mounting Chinese competition continue to squeeze profitability.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 10:15

EssilorLuxottica's AI Smart Glasses Revenue Nearly Doubles On Ray-Ban, Oakley Demand

Zero Hedge -

EssilorLuxottica's AI Smart Glasses Revenue Nearly Doubles On Ray-Ban, Oakley Demand

EssilorLuxottica shares rose as much as 4.5% in Paris before reversing course and falling 2%. The eyewear maker reported better-than-expected first-half profit margins, while revenue from its AI smart glasses nearly doubled in the second quarter, easing investor concerns over rising competition and component costs.

The Ray-Ban owner, which partners with Meta on smart glasses, reported a 13% increase in first-half adjusted profit to 1.9 billion euros, while its operating margin reached 18.6%, above the analyst estimate of 16.3%. Second-quarter revenue rose 8.7% at constant exchange rates to 7.69 billion euros, missing expectations due to weaker growth in North America.

Wall Street analysts called management's tone on the earnings call earlier today "optimistic" and "encouraging."

CFO Stefano Grassi noted, "There are good reasons to see a good trajectory on gross margin also for the second half." He told analysts about a pipeline of AI smart glasses set to hit the market.

EssilorLuxottica did not disclose second-quarter AI-glasses volumes, though management said growth was driven by its Ray-Ban and Oakley models developed with Meta.

EssilorLuxottica's smart glasses have emerged as early consumer-market winners by combining familiar eyewear frame designs with affordable pricing, unlike devices such as Apple's Vision Pro and other products priced above $2,000, even up to $3,000. The apparent sweet spot for mass-market adoption remains around $300 to $500 per unit.

Shares in Paris are down around 2%, after reversing gains of 4.5%. Year to date, shares have cratered, down about 39%. The reason for this is the durability of profit margins amid rising costs and intensifying competition. Analysts have also cited tensions among the heirs of founder Leonardo Del Vecchio as an additional overhang on the shares.

Here's what desks on Wall Street are saying (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Bernstein (market perform)

  • The management's tone on the earnings call was "optimistic" regarding 2H, acknowledging harder comparatives, "but teasing a diversified innovation pipeline," analyst Luca Solca writes in a note
  • The "positive outlook across both top line and margins reinforced on the call could bring the name back on investors' radars," even if the latest results seem "priced in"

Morgan Stanley (overweight)

  • The 1H results are a "small relief following a series of downwards earnings revisions and the pressure on shares in recent months," analyst Grace Smalley writes in a note
  • The management's tone on the call was "encouraging," outlining several growth drivers in 2H "while acknowledging the tougher comparison base, as well as pointing to ongoing solid cost control"

Citi (buy)

  • The 2Q/1H results are mixed, "with worse sales but better margins," analyst Veronika Dubajova writes in a note
  • The current valuation, which sits at the low-end of EssilorLuxottica's historical range, "already appears to discount forward sales growth"
  • The better-than-expected adjusted Ebit "should diminish recent fears around margin progression/EPS momentum"

CFRA (buy)

  • The results were mixed, with a slight miss on revenue and a beat on profit, analyst Wan Nurhayati says
  • "We continue to see the strong adoption of AI glasses and the growth opportunity from Stellest supporting top-line momentum"
  • However, Nurhayati believes the "rapid shift toward lower margin AI glasses remains a near-term margin headwind and could continue to weigh on the premium valuation the company has historically enjoyed"

Jefferies (buy)

  • Analyst Julien Dormois says revenue in constant currency shows "resilient, high growth, even if slightly below cons"" * Additionally, Dormois views the first-half margin as "reassuring"
  • "With the shares halving from Nov peak (margin reset, misplaced compet. fears, corp. gov.), we see a very compelling risk/reward into a quality growth compounder," the analyst writes

Bloomberg Intelligence

  • "EssilorLuxottica's 1H adjusted Ebit margin rebound to 18.6%, a 233-bp beat, on price-mix and belated AI-glasses operating- leverage gains makes its 2H gross-margin expansion target feasible even without the net US tariff benefit, which added 60 bps in 1H," analyst Diana Gomes writes

Apple and Alphabet are also planning to enter the AI glasses market, with Meta currently in the lead.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 09:45

Idaho's High Desert Becomes Hot Spot For Nuclear Power Revolution

Zero Hedge -

Idaho's High Desert Becomes Hot Spot For Nuclear Power Revolution

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times,

History was made with the flip of a switch at 12:30 a.m. on June 4, under partly cloudy skies and a waning three-quarter moon in Idaho's Arco Desert, when a prototype reactor sustained a nuclear chain reaction, becoming the first new design to achieve "criticality," or viability, in the United States since 1973.

In that midnight milestone's wake, the future is following fast. Since Antares Nuclear's Mark-0 design was validated in early June, three other novel reactor designs have met the U.S. Department of Energy's criticality requirements and, according to Energy Secretary Chris Wright. Up to four more could do so by year's end.

While technologies, fuels, and applications vary, these prototypes share common traits. All are far smaller than the conventional reactors with massive cement cooling towers, and all are designed to be mass-produced, portable, and scalable. Several can fit in the bed of a pickup truck.

Most microreactor designs could be built in factories and shipped in cargo containers to locations around the world. Idaho National Laboratory

The nuclear energy surge is a convergence of rare bipartisan accord with stymied science and spiking electricity demand, spurred by power-hungry data centers and the integration of artificial intelligence and quantum computing into an electron-dependent world where the average U.S. home has 21 digital devices.

High-tech investors and hyperscalers are financing much of the innovation and pressuring the energy department to accelerate approvals to bring these new energy sources to market.

Not next decade.

Next year.

First-Movers

Antares Nuclear is one of 10 companies selected by the Department of Energy in August 2025 to develop "first mover" innovations under a reactor pilot program authorized by President Donald Trump. In four executive orders in May 2025, the president called for licensing 10 new reactors by 2030 and quadrupling the nation's nuclear energy capacity by 2050.

The United States maintains the world's largest nuclear power industry, with 96 reactors across 28 states that produce nearly 20 percent of the nation's electricity, according to the U.S. Energy Information Association.

But since 1990, while 18 reactors have been retired, only two new ones have been built in the United States, largely because of costs, long timelines, regulatory entanglements, and public perception after the Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima nuclear accidents.

Although deployments have languished for a half-century, nuclear technologies have advanced, with U.S. companies developing more than 30 new reactor designs. Meanwhile, successive administrations and Congress - in scarce consensus - have been deregulating and subsidizing the industry since 2024's ADVANCE Act adoption to meet a projected 25 percent increase in electricity demand by 2030 and more than 70 percent increase by 2050.

Criticality, a no-power proofing of theoretical physics, is generally the first step in being licensed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to produce and sell commercial nuclear reactors.

Trump's executive orders overhaul the commission and streamline approvals, meaning new reactors could be for sale within six months to a year, Wright said on June 25 in Idaho Falls after meeting with developers at the Idaho National Laboratory.

Qualifying for the pilot reactor program launched by Trump's executive orders, or for enrollment in the energy department's newly established nuclear launchpad program, gives developers access to the Idaho National Laboratory, an 890-square-mile sagebrush sprawl in the Arco Desert, where atomic power was first used to create electricity in 1951. Specifically, they gain access to the Materials and Fuels Complex, a 40-minute drive from the lab's Idaho Falls administrative offices.

Prototypes by Aalo Atomics and Valar Atomics also reached criticality under the pilot reactor program, while Deployable Energy did so as a launchpad participant. On criticality's "cusp" at the national lab and elsewhere are micro-reactors from Radiant Industries, Natura Resources, Last Energy, Atomic Alchemy, Deep Fission, and Oklo.

Antares Nuclear's Mark-O

When Antares's Mark-0 achieved functional viability on June 4, it became the 53rd reactor to reach criticality at the Idaho National Lab and the first non-lightwater reactor licensed in the United States since 1973.

The Torrance, California startup's shipping container-sized prototype, which utilizes sodium heat pipes for cooling without relying on external power, could produce up to 20 megawatts of electricity, or enough to power 15,000 homes, by 2027.

At the national lab on June 25, Wright told Antares CEO Jordan Bramble that seeing a structure where "wetted" sodium waste was treated transformed into a reactor test site in less than a year had made him so happy, he cried.

"I got emotional - emotional! - today to see the humans, the reactors, the steel, the action that's happening" at the lab site, he said. "To think on June 4 - less than 13 months after [Trump's executive orders] - that reactor ran critical [because] a three-year-old company said, 'Yes, we can. Yes, we will,' and leaned in."

Fueled by high-assay low-enriched uranium, Antares's prototype is in a 26-foot-deep, 26-foot-wide chamber and "over-shielded" under 11 cement slabs collectively weighing more than 200 tons.

Antares Communications Manager Kayla Haas said that when the company was founded in 2023, there were "three big things on the agenda": in 2026, secure Mark-0 criticality; in 2027, "produce electricity" with the next-generation Mark-1; and in 2028, "deploy reactors on customer sites."

"We're super excited to have checked the 2026 box," Haas said. "Now, we are shifting focus to our Mark-1 electricity-producing reactor that we'll test in 2027."

Backed by more than $140 million in private financing, Antares Nuclear owns a 322,000-square-foot plant in Southern California and offices in Aiken, South Carolina, and Idaho Falls. Its Mark-0 and Mark-1 reactors are ideally designed for defense and space applications.

The June 4 demonstration was conducted in partnership with Department of Defense nuclear fuels contractor BWX Technologies Inc. and observed by Pentagon officials. Antares is under contract to deliver micro-reactors to the U.S. Air Force's Joint Base San Antonio in 2027 and to the U.S. Army by September 2028.

Since 2025, Antares Nuclear has also been testing a 100-kilowatt reactor - enough juice for 65 homes - at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Redstone Arsenal, Alabama, for potential use in space travel and as a moon base power plant.

The prototypes all share the same "base design," Antares Licensing Director Jason Andrus said, but testing in California, Idaho, and Alabama allows the company to integrate "learnings" into evolving designs and "do really kind of nerdy, nukey things."

Valar Atomics' Ward 250

Valar Atomics became the second to gain criticality, when its Ward 250 high-temperature, helium-cooled reactor sustained generation on June 18 at the San Rafael Energy Lab in Emery County, Utah. It is the only one of the four not to do so at the Idaho lab.

The El Segundo, California-based developer's 75-foot-long, 15-foot-wide micro-reactor could generate up to five megawatts of electricity, enough to power 5,000 homes, and be portable by truck, train, or plane. In February, the 120-ton Ward 250 was transported from California to Utah in a U.S. Air Force C-17.

Ward 250 is designed to be planted up to 80 feet underground and, because it is fueled by TRISO - a uranium fuel designed to prevent radioactive release - there's no need for large cement containment structures.

Valar followed criticality by using Ward 250 on July 1 to briefly power a website hosted on an Nvidia Blackwell AI chip. Nvidia is building a data center complex near Valar's factory in Orangeville, Utah, and has agreed to purchase up to 30 megawatts of electricity from the company by decade's end.

Deployable Energy's Unity

Houston-headquartered Deployable Energy's Unity reactor was the third new design, and second at the Idaho National Lab, to attain criticality in June, when it achieved operability at 11:55 p.m. on June 30.

Deployable founder and CEO Bobby Gallagher hauled Unity's reactor core, designed to fit in a 20-foot shipping container, from Texas to Idaho in a Ford F-150 pickup bed, proving its portability just by showing up at the lab.

The high-temperature, water-moderated, helium-cooled one-megawatt reactor - generating enough to power around 800 homes - is fueled with standard low enriched uranium, was built in partnership with Texas A&M University, and has drawn more than $10 billion in letter-of-interest queries "ranging from data centers to remote island community power," it maintains.

While one megawatt is not a lot of electricity, isolated communities, emergency responders, military installations, and industrial developers will see value in a reactor that can be "dropped in wherever you need it and left alone," Deployable Energy co-founder and Chief Commercial Officer Sanjay Mukhi said in late June, four days before Unity achieved criticality.

Deployable, which was only incorporated in 2025, was banking on that prospect when it was accepted into the reactor pilot program and arrived at the Idaho National Lab "150 days ago," he said, building a 340,000-square-foot structure dubbed "Studio 54," because it houses the 54th new reactor type to reach criticality at the lab.

Mukhi said one-megawatt reactors can be "scaled out" to meet tailored needs.

"We can deploy many at a time to meet the actual power requirements of specific sites," he said. "If you require 122 megawatts, instead of getting a 350-megawatt unit, you could actually get the exact power requirement and a little bit more."

The reactor, anchored in a 19-foot-deep basement chamber, looks like a laundry wash drum serrated by 696 holes where uranium rods will radiate heat in 63 gallons of water.

"It doesn't require a lot of water," Deployable co-founder and Chief Operating Officer Lance Maul said. "That's one of the other benefits to being able to go into different markets that have water restrictions."

Deployable's goal, he said, is to produce 1,000 reactors a year by decade's end and "by the mid-30s, 10,000 a year."

"That's the idea," Mukhi said. "From order to delivery, six months."

Aalo Atomics' Aalo-X

After Aalo Atomics of Austin, Texas, was selected to participate in the pilot program at the lab, the three-year-old startup's 200 employees built a 3,600-square-foot structure in 36 days. Then, over the next 40 days, they installed a 10-megawatt test reactor, which reached criticality 20 minutes into July 4.

"From founding to fission in under three years," Aalo spokesperson Ashley Cohen said. "One of the fastest reactor builds in modern American history."

It was the second-fastest build in history for a first-of-a-kind reactor, clarified Aalo co-founder and CEO Matt Lozak, and the swiftest in 80 years since Clementine, the world's first plutonium-fueled fast-neutron reactor, achieved criticality in November1946.

The test reactor is a full-scale prototype of its 20-foot-tall, 10-foot-wide Aalo-X micro-reactor - small enough to haul on a tractor trailer flatbed, big enough to power 10,000 homes.

Lozak projects that Aalo will be selling its next-generation 10-megawatt, 4.95 percent LEU-fueled Apollo X reactors at "commercial-scale" in 2027, and assembling its Aalo Pod power plants, which can house up to five 10-megawatt reactors, for commercial buyers by 2029 at its 40,000-square-foot Texas factory.

The Aalo Pod power plant will be mobile, won't need refurbishment for 40 years, and will be purpose-built to specifications - attributes the company says make it ideal for military, disaster response, and industrial applications.

Aalo co-founder and President Yasir Arafat noted that the Department of Energy has approved the company's request to build a data center on its national lab site.

"These things go hand-in-hand," he said. "AI is so power-hungry, and there's no better way to power AI than nuclear."

During a tour of the company's 2-acre site at the national lab, Lozak and Arafat said reaching criticality by July 4 would prove concepts key to their commercial model.

Mission accomplished.

"We proved all the major hard questions," Lozak said. "Can you construct? Yes. Can you build your reactor in a factory? Yes. We built our reactor in four weeks, did 80 percent of the installation within the first week in the factory, and shipped it across the country in two days."

Radiant Nuclear's Kaleidos

El Segundo, California-based Radiant Nuclear's one-megawatt Kaleidos reactor, designed to fit inside a 20-foot shipping container, is expected to reach criticality and then follow up with a 150-hour demonstration of sustained "hands off" operability this summer.

Kaleidos is installed in the Idaho lab's Demonstration of Microreactor Experiments (DOME), a 100-foot-tall structure on the Materials and Fuels Complex, where micro-reactors up to 20 megawatts were tested in the 1960s and '70s.

Radiant Nuclear President Tori Shivanandan said in late June that the company was engaged in "rigorous component testing on every single part of this system" it built inside the DOME.

The reactor's helium circulator, for instance, has received more than 150 start-stops "as though [it] just lost power" so the company can "understand that data prior to the system even shipping," she said. "We're still 'iterating' on the product."

There are five phases to reactor testing, Shivanandan said, "and we pause, we review the data, between each one."

Some Kaleidos components have undergone extensive testing at university labs nationwide, "but this will be the first time they're receiving dose under the full system, and so we want to again see 150 hours of what we call 'hands-off operations,' and monitor the environment, see what's going on," Shivanandan said.

The shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear power plant stands in the middle of the Susquehanna River near Middletown, Pa., on Oct. 10, 2024. Since 1990, only two new nuclear reactors have been built in the United States, in large part because of public perception after nuclear accidents such as the 1979 partial meltdown at the plant. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 09:30

10 Wednesday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My mid-week morning train reads:

The Public Is the Exit: The words “initial public offering” make it sound like the public is getting in at the beginning. That may have been true a long time ago. Companies used to go public because they needed money to build factories, hire workers and expand the business. Public investors helped fund the next stage of growth. Today, most of that happens before the company ever reaches the stock market. TrendLabs on the late-stage private market playbook — companies staying private until the growth is extracted, then dumping shares on retail via IPO. The public markets have become the exit, not the destination. (TrendLabs).

Judges Can Void a Tariff. They Can’t Rebuild Our Reputation. The Trump administration finalized new Section 301 tariffs on dozens of trading partners, ranging from 10 to 12.5 percent, perfectly timed to take effect as the temporary global tariff of 10 percent under Section 122 expires. The basis for these new tariffs is a five-month investigation into whether those countries have done enough to keep goods made with forced labor out of their supply chains. The Daily Economy on the lasting damage — courts can strike down the tariffs, but the reliability premium America spent 80 years building is gone. (The Daily Economy) see also Tariffs, Yet Again: All 60 country-specific “Determinations of Action” are identical boilerplate. Each is a single paragraph, and the template is word-for-word the same — only the country name, the rate (10% or 12.5%), and the cross-references change. No country-specific evidence, no discussion of any particular economy’s laws, enforcement record, or forced-labor exposure appears. Somehow, every major trading partner qualifies for tariffs — which is the reveal that this is not specific to any one nation’s behaviors. The Big Picture on the latest round of tariff whiplash — the market has learned to price the chaos, but the underlying damage to planning and investment keeps compounding. (The Big Picture)

What makes a woman a witch? Financial independence: Women aren’t being burnt at the stake any more, but there is still risk and violence implicit in the label ‘witch.’ The Guardian on the historical pattern — witchcraft accusations tracked women’s economic autonomy. The women burned were disproportionately the ones with property. (The Guardian)

The Degens are Winning in Oil ETFs: I want to cop to something. I have, on more than one occasion, dismissed the entire class of investors who trade ETFs short-term as “degens.” I didn’t invent the moniker. I started hearing it from friends who were aggressively trading crypto, self-referentially. But sometimes, the degens are right. They have been about oil. The attraction to make short-term market bets is real. When you think what everyone knows is wrong, it’s tempting to place a bet. And while Kalshi and Polymarket may be better venues for “someone is wrong on the internet” proof-trading, ETFs offer clean, efficient ways to lose your money too. Short-term market betting has fully colonized the ETF space. When you think everyone is wrong, it’s tempting to place a bet — and leveraged oil funds are a clean, efficient way to lose your money. (ETF.com)

‘Falling apart’: Trump’s Boeing deal hits turbulence with Beijing: China’s demands for parts and service guarantees to avoid the impact of possible future U.S. export restrictions has stymied a purchase agreement. (Politico)

Stop Pathologizing Ordinary Life: Could our preoccupation with mental health be part of the problem? Not every bad day is depression. Not every nervous moment is anxiety. The New York Times opinion piece pushes back on the medicalization of normal human experience. (New York Times)

Nobody’s born a minimalist: The joy & humor of surrealism. Plus, a new jewelry crafter, DIY sandal kits, reworked vintage tees & more. Blackbird Spyplane on how minimalism is a luxury belief that requires having had enough stuff to decide you don’t want it. The aesthetic of less is available only to those who’ve already had more. (Blackbird Spyplane)

Unreleased Documentary Footage Captures Graham’s Obsessive Push for Iran War: A filmmaker followed the senator over the past three years, chronicling his relationship with Trump and Netanyahu. Surprisingly, it was Graham that drove the push into Iran, not Trump… Lindsey Graham on camera, relentlessly pushing Netanyahu toward war with Iran. The Wall Street Journal obtained footage that shows the senator’s role was far more active than previously known. (Wall Street Journal)

How Netanyahu Lost America: The prime minister, a self-styled expert on the U.S., has shattered his country’s standing. The Atlantic traces the Israeli prime minister’s long arc from indispensable ally to strategic liability — and how his decisions cost Israel the one relationship it couldn’t afford to lose. (The Atlantic)

•‘Ted Lasso’ Was Finished. Then Jason Sudeikis Had an Epiphany: The Hollywood Reporter on the show’s unexpected fourth season — what changed Sudeikis’s mind and whether the magic can survive the return. As Apple TV’s game-changing hit returns for a never-supposed-to-happen fourth season, THR goes deep with the cast and creators on the off-field drama — and on-brand hope — that made it possible. (Hollywood Reporter)

Video of the day: Is Jeremy Clarkson’s pub OVERRATED?

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Som Seif Purpose Investments, founder/CEO, Toronto-based asset manager launched in 2012. He grew his first firm, Claymore Investments to $8B in assets by creating 34 ETFs over 6 years, establishing it as Canada’s leader in low-cost exchange-traded funds; he sold to BlackRock in 2012. Next, he co-founded Wealthsimple, which became the default investing app for a generation of Canadians. His wealth management firm, Purpose, was founded at the end of 2012, and manages>$31B in ETFs, mutual funds, alternatives, private assets, and digital assets. Som was named to Canada’s Top 40 Under 40 in 2011.

 

Tesla’s Cratering Cybertruck Sales Evoke Ford Edsel Comparisons

Source: Bloomberg

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The post 10 Wednesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

How Does A Political Party Leader Survive This?

Zero Hedge -

How Does A Political Party Leader Survive This?

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Far left UK Green Party leader Zack Polanski has caused uproar by sharing an Instagram post featuring a man in a T-shirt depicting a guillotine next to the words "We're only making plans for Nigel." The clear target was Reform UK leader Nigel Farage.

This lands just two weeks after Reform's Ann Widdecombe was beaten to death with a hammer in her own home.

Reform has reported Polanski to the Metropolitan Police for incitement to murder. The Met says it is conducting enquiries.

The image formed part of a carousel of photos from a Green Party event. Polanski, who has more than 700,000 Instagram followers, accepted a collaboration request. Once the specific frame was flagged, he unshared it.

A Green Party spokesman said he "unequivocally does not support this type of dangerous message" and claimed he had accepted the post "without realising there was more to it than he had seen." The same spokesman called the T-shirt "clearly in poor taste" while noting Polanski himself has received threats.

Nigel Farage shared a screenshot and stated the obvious double standard: "This is what Zack Polanski has just posted on his Instagram. If I was to post anything as inciteful then I would expect to be arrested, and so should Polanski."

Reform's home affairs spokesman Zia Yusuf posted a video reaction expressing disbelief at the sequence of events.

The Metropolitan Police confirmed: "Earlier today, we received a third-party report relating to an image shared on social media. We take reports of this nature extremely seriously, and officers are conducting enquiries into the matter."

Is the enquiry was serious or just purely performative?

Reform has also indicated it will refer Polanski to the Greater London Authority monitoring officer, given his elected role there.

The timing is not abstract. Ann Widdecombe, 78, Reform's immigration and justice spokeswoman and a long-serving former Conservative minister, was found dead at her remote Dartmoor home on 9 July.

Prosecutors told a court she sustained 21 blows to the head from a hammer in what was described as a planned and targeted attack. A man has been charged with her murder.

The killing immediately produced open celebration among sections of the left online, including on platforms that market themselves as more "kind" alternatives to mainstream social media. Users treated the death of an elderly woman for her politics as a punchline or a form of progress.

Against this backdrop, Polanski's post landed like petrol on dry grass.

Jack Hadfield noted the contrast with previous cases of social-media speech:

Alex Armstrong stressed equal application:

Nioh Berg highlighted the mechanics of Instagram collaboration posts. Accepting a collaboration requires a deliberate step; the image was visible.

Will we see yet another example of two tier policing in the UK?

Alex Phillips observed the media asymmetry:

Susan Hall of the London Assembly noted that this rhetoric is unacceptable in any context.

Polanski leads the same Green Party that has spent years elevating radical identity politics above basic national standards. In May, we documented the election of a transgender Tamil immigrant on a temporary student visa - with no British citizenship or permanent residency - as a Green MSP in Scotland.

The party's record under Polanski includes candidates investigated for antisemitism, open rejection of biological reality, and a consistent prioritisation of ideological purity over ordinary voters.

The culture that normalises such figures is the same culture that treats a guillotine graphic aimed at a political rival as an unfortunate oversight.

British politics has already seen two sitting MPs murdered in recent memory - Jo Cox and David Amess - plus the hammer killing of Widdecombe. Security concerns for public figures are no longer theoretical.

Farage has repeatedly described himself as among the most physically and verbally attacked politicians of the modern era. Polanski has previously labelled Farage a "fascist" and a "grifter." The language of existential threat has become casual on one side of the spectrum while the same side demands maximum protection and sensitivity for its own.

Two-tier enforcement remains the live issue. Cases involving speech from the right have produced arrests, charges, and in some instances custody. Equivalent or stronger material from the left has frequently been waved away as "poor taste," "satire," or an unfortunate oversight.

The Met's statement that it takes such reports "extremely seriously" will be tested by whether any meaningful action follows or whether the file quietly closes once the news cycle moves on.

A political party leader is not an anonymous activist. He is a public figure with institutional reach, elected positions, and a platform that amplifies whatever he platforms.

Accepting a collaboration that places a beheading graphic of a rival in front of three-quarters of a million followers is not a private lapse. It is a public act. Claiming not to have noticed the content after the fact does not restore the credibility that was spent.

The response from the Green Party has been damage control rather than unambiguous rejection of the underlying culture that makes such imagery thinkable.

Either the rules on incitement and threats apply evenly, or they exist solely to police one side. If Polanski remains leader of the Green Party after this, it confirms the far left's extremist stance and proves that only those who oppose it will be targeted and punished.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 02:00

The War's Back Is Broken

Zero Hedge -

The War's Back Is Broken

Authored by Alastair Crooke

Trump ordered the US military not to carry out new strikes on Iran Friday night, despite approving earlier a "Gates of Hell massive attack" on Iran. The US has now requested a new temporary ceasefire with Iran and is seeking a return to the collapsed and suspended MoU, with discussions to include Yemen, and with Trump seeking to make AnsarAllah a party to the negotiations.

Clearly Trump is angry, and fears that that the war is consuming his Presidency (and his legacy). Iran comprehensively rejected all negotiations throughout this last week and confirmed it will not start negotiations under any circumstances. Put simply, why would Iran consent to give the US time to regroup and rearm before launching another round of strikes on Iran when it has the US “on the run.”

A return to the MoU whose credibility Trump repeatedly has shredded? Unlikely.

Will Schryver notes that rumors are swirling that the Pentagon is pressuring Trump to call off the war with Iran because the US has nearly exhausted its stockpiles of air-defence interceptors and stand-off strike missiles. The President’s top aides are also uneasy about the prospect of a widening war in the Middle East, the alienation of key Gulf allies vulnerable to further Iranian attack, and the coming energy crunch. “Few if any in Mr. Trump’s inner circle believed the plan to escalate was wise, said the two people briefed,” the New York Times reports.

It seems too that jiggery-pokery over the exact fuel supply situation in the US may have played a part in Trump’s backtrack. Larry Johnson reports that –

A brief prepared by Karl Miller investigates how the US military’s covert fuel procurement and export operations are depleting the nation’s diesel and jet fuel reserves, particularly during a period when domestic stocks are already critically low.

In gist, Miller says that –

much of this (covert) fuel export is routed through opaque channels, such as the Rotterdam trans-shipment hub, where the final military or foreign allocation is not publicly reconciled, leaving the American economy exposed to shortage risks – whilst military and foreign operations – ‘notably Israel’ – receive priority access.

This report by Miller seems to connect to the US authorities’ open manipulation of oil benchmarks designed to convince markets that there is no danger of fuel shortages arising from the ongoing emergency release from the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserves) of 172 million barrels that was initiated to counter supply shocks from the conflict with Iran.

Whilst the statuary security floor is 250 million barrels (the current level is around 300), nonetheless the narrative is being promoted that the drawdown can go even further (to 70 mbpd). But can it? What is the minimum level the strategic oil reserves can go to? It is more complicated than just one big vat of crude that has a specific level. The SPR is composed of many caverns, and contains different types of crude oil, that are being drawn down at different rates, with some caverns likely to collapse if drained too far. In short, nobody knows how far is too far. It’s all guesswork.

With the back broken to Trump’s military assault the only path back to negotiations would be to offer front-loaded real concessions. But even were Trump to do this, would he be believed? And can Trump’s mental state sustain such implied humiliation?

The main obstacle on the path back to negotiations with Iran is that he and his inner circle understand Iran back-to-front.

They aver to believe that they are dealing with an intransigent and hardline leadership, whilst Iranians as a whole long for an exit.

This is wrong; it is the other way around. It is the leadership that is pragmatic, and it is “the street” that is overall more hard-line and demands vengeance. And demands to know why there should be negotiations at all.

Then again, Team Trump and his Fox News cheerleaders have slipped from the earlier US vision of itself as a redeemer nation into a radical Manichaean “characterization of itself,” Professor Michael Vlahos writes, in which –

American ‘good news’ has been replaced by the ever-present spectre of Evil and the threat of force. The holy words, Freedom and Democracy, while still chanted, have become a hollow mantra. The American ‘gospel”’no longer preaches about bringing redemption and expiation: it is now concerned with enforcement and punishment. The volte-face came in an instant, on 9/11 and with Guantanamo.

The problem then centers on attitude: How is it possible to negotiate or talk to the embodiment of evil (as Trump terms the Iranians)? It isn’t possible, of course. That was the point to casting enemies in such dark terms. It precludes true mediation. It precludes a solution that can be viewed as the elevation to power for “one of the most evil people in history,” leading a “gang of bloodthirsty thugs.” It distils policy to the search for dominance over the “otherness.”

The West exhibits one particular way of thinking that it deems to represent the essence of that which is Human. This mode of thinking (often termed Apollonian) links to Patriarchy, law, and vertical top-to-bottom secular, rational, mechanistic thinking. It offers little room for “betweenness.” Things are either “A” or “non-A.”

However, another sphere (often termed the Dionysian) expresses the energetic duality in both nature and in the human – male and female; order and exuberant transgression; and of rectitude and degeneracy. They form the poles within consciousness that both co-inhere in us, and that co-constitute each other. (Dionysian logos may be viewed perhaps as the shadow, or even of the revolt against Apollo).

And then there is Persephone (the underside to the Dionysian “shadow”) expressing the chthonic, feminine existence. Here there is no male pole, but only a goddess radiating earthiness and the female principle of reproduction, the process of growth and of caring, and of underworld knowledge (called intuition) – symbolizing the cyclical Life of Aphrodite, decay, death and ultimate renewal.

Consciousness however, mostly expresses the human quality from one particular orientation. Nonetheless, all civilizations draw from the full diversity of such components to consciousness that – one way or another – respond to a particular civilization.

To think in one culture is to think in one way; however to belong to a different culture, a different ethnic group, a different religion – means that thinking will differ. Yet we all remain human.

So the imperial hubris of Trump is beginning to face the fact that he will find it hard – possibly impossible – to find a solution to the Middle East, because to see the world from the purely Apollonian perspective is essentially male and exclusivist and fails to understand “otherness”; but rather relies on exceptional privilege. It simply does not – and cannot – recognize a plurality of minds.

The US has lost the war. By adopting such uncompromising Manichaean language, Trump effectively has severed himself from any prospective diplomatic solution. By widening the war (Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq) he has severely complicated any diplomatic track. All elements are interrelated, yet they also have separate agendas. Thus a solution involves a complex matrix of issues, rather than a binary dispute between the US and Iran alone. The US ultimately will have to capitulate, with the result that Iran becomes a regional power (strengthening Russia and China), whilst the Region slowly will come to terms with this new West Asian reality.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 23:25

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