"Marylanders Are Voting With Their Feet": Johns Hopkins Finds Blue State Exodus To Persist For Years

A new Johns Hopkins University survey shows that more than half of Baltimore respondents expect to move out of their current neighborhoods within three years, as the one-party-ruled state of Democratic Party queens and kings has failed taxpayers on affordability, law and order, and other basic issues commonly standard in red states.

The Hopkins survey, conducted from September to November 2024, found that 42% of Baltimore City residents want to leave the city entirely. Of those, 27% expect to stay somewhere else in Maryland, while 15% expect to leave the state, according to the Baltimore Sun.

Among the 58% of city residents who plan to remain in Baltimore, only 36% expect to stay in their current neighborhood, while 22% expect to move to another part of the city.

In Baltimore County, the urgency to relocate is also high, but most residents who want to move expect to remain in the county: 66% say they plan to stay.

Vice Chair of the Maryland Freedom Caucus, Republican Delegate Kathy Szeliga, explained the dire situation in Maryland, where a very real exodus is underway:

Every day, I hear from friends, neighbors, and constituents that they are considering or they are actually moving out of Maryland. It's not just the crushing taxes, unaffordable energy bills, and concerns about public safety; it's also the failing education system.

Governor Wes Moore is unable to deliver results or give people confidence that he can turn this state around, and so people are voting with their feet and leaving Maryland.

How bad is this exodus in Baltimore?

Well, the population of Baltimore City alone has collapsed 40% from its 1950s level, and deindustrialization, blended with half a century or more of toxic left-wing politics, has transformed parts of the city into an utter economic wasteland.

"There is no question that Governor Moore's policies on crime, affordability, and government competence make Marylanders want to flee the state," said Republican Delegate Robin Grammer, a founding member of the Maryland Freedom Caucus from Baltimore County.

Grammer added, "The Maryland Freedom Caucus has put affordability at the center of every fight in Annapolis, from electric bills to the increase in car registration fees. Marylanders are voting with their feet."

Related:

• "Billion-Dollar Ghost Town" Surrounds Under Armor Headquarters

• Downtown Baltimore CRE Crash Signals Deeper Fiscal Crisis Ahead

• Build It, And They Will Come? Not The Case At Baltimore's Harbor East Luxury Tower

• "Exponentially Deteriorating": Baltimore's Lawlessness Spreads Into Suburbs As Democrats Lose Control

Maryland is likely on track to become the California of the East Coast, as progressive policies over the last half century have epically backfired, unleashing crime and chaos, unaffordability, high taxes, and a deteriorating quality of life.

The end result of this left-wing experiment is a massive population collapse in Baltimore City and negative net domestic migration for the state. The city was once the beating heart of American industrialization, but it has now transformed into an economic wasteland run by unhinged left-wing politicians.

However, there is good news. The remaining residents who are sticking out the looming financial crisis, as well as a worsening power bill crisis, in the state and city are beginning to see these politicians for what they really are: left-wing activists. They are also beginning to understand that the pillaging and corruption must end. Hence, the rise of the Maryland Freedom Caucus.

Notably, Hopkins is considered a left-leaning institution, which makes the survey even more concerning for Maryland's Democratic leadership. Additionally, the state's top media outlet, The Baltimore Sun, is leaning more center-right under new ownership, suggesting that left-wing propaganda in print and on the airwaves no longer works. This shift may usher in new, common-sense ideas and welcome a new era of politicians unlike anything the city or central part of the state has seen in generations.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 22:10

Toyota To Import Taiwan-Built Minivans To Japan Amid Factory Strain

Toyota will start shipping Taiwan-built Noah and Voxy minivans to Japan later this year, marking a rare shift in the company’s production strategy as mounting pressures strain the country’s auto manufacturing sector, according to Nikkei.

Production for the Japanese market is set to begin in October on a dedicated line at Toyota’s plant in northern Taiwan, according to Nikkei. While Japanese automakers have long sold foreign-built vehicles at home, those models were typically intended for overseas markets first. Toyota’s decision to create an offshore production line specifically for Japanese consumers is highly uncommon, particularly for two of its key domestic models.

The move comes as Toyota faces increasing difficulty expanding output inside Japan. Factory utilization is already near its limits, while labor shortages, higher material costs, and tighter compliance requirements have made domestic manufacturing more expensive and less flexible. Delivery delays for popular vehicles have stretched for months — and in some cases more than a year — forcing the automaker to suspend orders periodically as demand outpaces supply.

Nikkei writes that Toyota has committed to maintaining annual domestic production above 3 million vehicles to support employment and preserve Japan’s industrial base. At the same time, however, the company is increasingly relying on overseas operations to ease bottlenecks and reduce operational risk.

The Noah and Voxy are among Toyota’s strongest-selling minivans in Japan, with annual sales typically ranging between 70,000 and 80,000 units. To help meet demand, Toyota plans to build roughly 100,000 vehicles per year in Taiwan, focusing mainly on lower-cost variants. Production in Japan will continue in parallel.

The Taiwan facility already assembles models including the Corolla sedan and Yaris Cross through a local joint venture. For the fiscal year ending March 2026, the plant produced around 120,000 vehicles. Expanding output for Japan-bound minivans is expected to significantly increase overall production volumes.

Building a new automotive production line with annual capacity of 100,000 vehicles can require investments worth tens of billions of yen. Even so, Toyota appears willing to absorb those costs as domestic factories struggle to accommodate additional output. The company currently produces about 14,000 vehicles per day across Japan, leaving little spare capacity.

Pressure on the production system intensified after certification issues uncovered in 2024 prompted Toyota to tighten testing and regulatory oversight procedures, further constraining manufacturing flexibility.

Producing vehicles in Taiwan also introduces new challenges. The yen recently fell to its weakest level against the New Taiwan dollar in more than three decades, raising labor and operating costs for Japanese manufacturers there. Still, Toyota sees offshore production as necessary to stabilize supply and reduce delivery times.

Toyota president Kenta Kon has warned that persistent shortages are unsustainable, calling the situation “abnormal and critical.” The company fears prolonged waits could eventually push customers toward rival automakers.

Toyota is not alone in turning to reverse imports. Industry data shows sales of Japanese-brand vehicles built overseas and sold domestically climbed 19% last year to more than 111,000 units — the highest level in three decades. Honda is also preparing to bring an India-made EV into the Japanese market by fiscal 2028 as automakers increasingly seek lower-cost production bases abroad.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 22:10

Can Progressivism Be Overthrown?

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

For the last year and a half, Americans have been slammed with politics to the point that it has made vast numbers of people nearly crazy. Following the news, the blow-by-blow is not easy, and it is worse seeing coalitions form, collapse, reconstitute, form again, and be witness nonstop to what seem to be subversions, betrayals, duplicates, and disappointments.

U.S. Supreme Court Associate Justice Clarence Thomas speaks at the University of Texas at Austin, in Austin, Texas, on April 15, 2026. AP Photo/Eric Gay

We follow the polls, donate to candidates, listen to podcasts, cheer our friends and boo the bad guys, all in this exciting spectator sport. I'm told it's not really this way in Europe. Americans have a distinct sense of investment in the way our public life operates and we believe we can and should do something about it.

Do we really have a clear conception of the larger forces at work? I sense that what is lacking is a clear-headed theory about what is actually going on, that is the thematics of the larger struggle going on here.

Oh sure, there are plenty of people who will tell you that this is about stopping the attempt of Donald Trump to be like a king. My neighborhood was filled with "No Kings" yard signs, until the same households quietly took them down as they cheered the visit of King Charles of Britain.

Others say this is really a struggle between the two political parties, an argument about U.S. foreign policy interests, wrangling over personnel, and so on. I'm not going to discount other theories entirely but what they all lack is a bigger philosophical way to understand our times.

A Supreme Court Justice recently gave a spectacular speech, one of the most important - probably THE most important - in a century or more. I've rarely read anything so clear, concise, accurate, and incredibly truth-telling.

Those who understand the speech and its message are going to be better positioned to understand what is really going on in our times. Those who ignore this speech will continue to be mystified by the day-to-day headlines and roiling political news.

The author and speaker is Justice Clarence Thomas, one of the most impactful voices of our times. It was delivered at the University of Texas, Austin, on April 15, 2026.

The core underlying message: Progressivism is falling apart or already is gone because it is contrary to the American idea. The remaining argument today that matters is what will replace it.

To understand the implications, we need to understand what Progressivism is, the role it played in remaking this country, its theory of power and expertise, why it was never consistent with American ideals, and why it is destined for the dust bin of history.

He begins with the historical context and the centrality of the Declaration of Independence. It "did not establish a form of government - that was the job of the Constitution that followed - but it stated the purpose of government. The Declaration made clear in unmistakable prose that the purpose of government is to protect our God-given inalienable rights, rights that all individuals equally possess."

"The ideas of the Declaration," he says, "were so powerful that our nation could not coexist with the contradiction created by the great evil of slavery. Those principles were so powerful that hundreds of thousands of Americans fought and died in the Civil War to make men free. Those ideas have been so powerful that they convinced our nation to finally end segregation. They continue to be so powerful today that they have inspired people throughout the world to throw off the shackles of their oppressors."

As he says, the Founders were willing to commit everything with great courage to the cause of individual rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. It was not mere philosophy but life purpose, something for which they were willing to fight with courage and enormous risk and sacrifice. That decision shaped the American experience.

It is about a third of the way through where the speech gets hot and revealing of a history that very few students or adults today understand. He explained how the advent of Progressivism in the early teens of the 20th century effectively attacked and overthrew the vision of the Founders and the Declaration.

"At the beginning of the 20th century, a new set of first principles of government was introduced into the American mainstream," he says. "The proponents of this new set of first principles, most prominently among them the 28th President, Woodrow Wilson, called it Progressivism. Since Wilson's presidency, Progressivism has made many inroads in our system of government and our way of life. It has coexisted uneasily with the principles of the Declaration. Because it is opposed to those principles, it is not possible for the two to coexist forever."

"Progressivism was not native to America," he continues in ways that are consistent with everything I've read about this period. Indeed, some of the most influential intellectuals that emerged on the U.S. scene in that time had in fact done their graduate work in Germany, schooled in the dreams of technocracy and centralized social and economic management.

"Wilson and the progressives candidly admitted that they took it from Otto von Bismarck's Germany, whose state-centric society they admired. Progressives like Wilson argued that America needed to leave behind the principles of the Founding and catch up with the more advanced and sophisticated people of Europe. Wilson called Germany's system of relatively unimpeded state power 'nearly perfected.'"

To Wilson, the inalienable rights of the individual were "a lot of nonsense." Wilson redefined "liberty" not as a natural right antecedent to the government. Instead he saw liberty as "the right of those who are governed to adjust government to their own needs and interests." The government, as Wilson said, would be "beneficent and indispensable."

Progressivism, says Thomas, "requires of the people a subservience and weakness incompatible with a Constitution premised on the transcendent origin of our rights."

It was this period in history when the original design of the Constitution was mangled with a 16th Amendment that authorized the income tax and the 17th Amendment that turned the bicameral Congress into a unitary majoritarian body, thus empowering large cities over states. The central bank came along at the same time. The federal agencies grew and grew, with ever more power and invasions of rights.

Central to the Progressive vision was the exaltation of science, as understood by credentialed experts, at the expense of liberty. They believed that Darwin had demonstrated the dangers of unchecked procreation and sought to replace freedom with race theory, segregation, and eugenics. This wicked vision of the purpose of government mutated further in Europe with the rise of Nazism, fascism, communism, and the administrative state that effectively deleted people's government.

Justice Thomas explains all of this in bracingly brief form. It is an extremely satisfying read because he compresses hundreds of books into a short address. I frankly doubt that any Supreme Court Justice has dropped so many truth bombs in such a short space in the history of our country.

The central point: the entire vision failed. It did not give us a better managed society but social and economic stagnation, an overweening government ruled by supposed experts, invasions of our communities and families, and a crushing of individual liberty.

Make no mistake: all of this flowed from a philosophy of government that had nothing to do with the Founders' vision.

The system that displaced the Founders' structure is under pressure as never before today. Indeed, Progressivism is unraveling in our times because it has failed to live up to its promise, it breeds corporate corruption, it impoverishes people, and it is contrary to all our moral intuitions as a people.

"As we are gathered to celebrate this 250th anniversary of the Declaration," he concludes, "it may be tempting to do so as if we are passive spectators. It may be tempting to ... treat the Declaration like a shiny object or a keepsake, and listen to the sound of our own voices. ... What we must turn our attention to today is finding in ourselves the same level of courage that the signers of the Declaration had, so that we can do for our future what they did for theirs."

His final message to students: "Each of you will have opportunities to be courageous every day, whether your calling in life is as a day laborer, a stay-at-home mom, a small business owner, an educator, an office worker, a judge, or a Senator. It may mean speaking up in class tomorrow when everyone around you expects you to live by lies. ... It may mean turning down a job offer that requires you to make moral compromises. One thing I know to be true: It will mean waking up every day with the resolve to withstand unfair criticism and attacks. These are the choices that will confront you, and you must decide whether to respond with timidity or with courage, as the signers of the Declaration did."

Hear, hear! This is a mighty and glorious speech in all its essentials, worthy of deep study and wide readership. Once you internalize the meaning of it all, and consider how the Founders confronted a system they too had to overthrow in order to realize the blessings of liberty, our task becomes very clear.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 21:45

“We Must Leap Forward Into New Energy” - Canaccord’s Inaugural Nuclear Nexus Conference 

A new report from Canaccord Genuity captures the main threads from the firm’s first Nuclear Nexus conference, where fission and fusion developers, academics, and investors gathered to confront the practical barriers to scaling nuclear power. 

The event highlighted a shared recognition that surging electricity demand from AI data centers “finds itself bottle-necked by the physical reality of the grid”, forcing a hard look at fuel supply chains, regulatory timelines, and technology choices that can actually deliver power this decade.

The forum set out to connect the established track record of fission with the still-developing promise of fusion. Participants framed the two paths as complementary: one centered on controlled separation to release energy at scale, the other on forcing materials together under extreme conditions to achieve the same goal. 

Canaccord’s summary presents this tension as more than rhetoric, noting that Western nuclear deployment has lagged for decades, while Asia and Russia have moved ahead, driving up costs and exposing fuel vulnerabilities.

Oklo CEO Jacob DeWitte outlined the company’s Aurora Powerhouse, a liquid sodium-cooled fast reactor drawing on proven EBR-II technology and a build-own-operate model. He stressed the importance of securing a domestic HALEU supply chain through Idaho National Laboratory and Centrus, with longer-term options that include spent fuel reprocessing and access to government plutonium reserves suited to fast reactor designs. 

The discussion tied directly into broader concerns about Western dependence on foreign enriched uranium sources.

MIT professor Jacopo Buongiorno highlighted how the lack of recent construction experience in the West has roughly doubled nuclear build costs compared with earlier decades. He noted that small modular reactors are more likely to provide financing flexibility than dramatically lower electricity costs, and that HALEU supply remains a critical chokepoint. 

The contrast with rapid expansion in Asia and continued Russian export dominance was presented as a structural challenge rather than a temporary setback.

On the fusion side, UK Atomic Energy Authority’s Mike Gorley described the technology as fundamentally a large-scale thermal engineering problem rather than pure physics. A key constraint he flagged is the global shortage of Lithium-6, essential for tritium breeding and reactor performance. 

Several companies presented deployment timelines. Terra Innovatum’s SOLO microreactor is designed to run on either LEU or HALEU and incorporates inherent safety features that eliminate meltdown and explosion risks. The company is targeting a first-of-a-kind demonstration in 2027 and commercial units in 2028 under the NRC’s proposed Part 57 microreactor framework. 

Inertia is pursuing inertial confinement fusion and plans to begin construction of a 1.5 GW grid-scale plant in 2030 after solving manufacturing challenges for high-efficiency lasers and fuel targets. 

Newcleo is advancing lead-cooled fast reactors with MOX fuel and has partnered with Oklo to establish a U.S. MOX fabrication capability, addressing the domestic prohibition on commercial plutonium reprocessing.

MIT professors Dennis Whyte and Andrew Lo described their new Rutherford Energy Ventures vehicle as a diversified portfolio approach across the fusion value chain. They cited easier regulatory pathways for fusion compared with fission and immediate revenue potential from spin-off technologies as reasons the sector could reach system-level integration within the next decade, aided by hyperscaler demand.

TerraPower, backed by Bill Gates, received a landmark NRC construction permit in March 2026 for its Natrium sodium-cooled fast reactor in Wyoming. The company is on track for a 2030 startup and has signed a major agreement with Meta to develop up to eight additional Natrium units capable of supplying 4 GW of dispatchable power to data centers. 

Zap Energy is running a dual-track program that pairs a Z-pinch fusion reactor with a simpler sodium-cooled fission microreactor, planning to deploy the lower-risk fission technology in the early 2030s before scaling fusion later in the decade.

Panels on critical materials and isotopes pointed to persistent supply constraints for both medical isotopes and nuclear fuel components that are expected to last through the 2020s due to underinvestment and lengthy permitting. ASP Isotopes is commercializing laser-based enrichment, SHINE Technologies is generating near-term revenue from isotope production and fusion-fission hybrids, and Uranium Energy Corp is positioning its U.S.-focused uranium assets against a projected 1.9-billion-pound market deficit.

NuScale and its development partner ENTRA1 are advancing a six-plant deployment across the Tennessee Valley Authority territory, with four sites already identified. 

Participants noted that while evolutionary light-water designs are likely to lead near-term deployments, Generation IV reactors should play a larger role through the 2030s. Elementl framed itself as a technology-agnostic integrator focused on scaling proven light-water reactor projects to 100 GW by 2040 while hyperscalers such as Google provide early demand signals.

The report leaves the impression that the nuclear sector is entering a more dynamic period, but one still defined by practical constraints on fuel, regulation, and execution speed rather than by any single breakthrough technology.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 21:20

It's Not Iran Trapping Ships In The Hormuz, It's The Insurance Risk

Is the Iranian regime the immediate barrier to oil tankers seeking to exit the Strait of Hormuz, or is it fear of liability that's keeping shipping companies at bay?

The damage actually done to Iran's military and weaponry by US strikes is a matter of hot debate, but one aspect of the strikes that is relatively easy to confirm is the destruction to Iran's navy.  US Central Command indicates that around 92% of Iran's naval capacity has been sunk to the bottom of the ocean including at least 10 small submarines.  So far, the regimes ability to actually hit and destroy US ships is next to nil.

The much vaunted "mosquito fleet" of small and fast attack boats has proven to be ineffective against US operations in the Strait, with some naval ships traveling directly through the Hormuz without much trouble.  At bottom, Iran has no ability to enforce an effective "blockade" on the strait. 

The regime's containment is mostly restricted to the use of drones, which can be countered with US technology (jamming and counter-drone operations).  But Iran also understands that the volatility of the cargo and the insurance risk is the greater element working in their favor. 

In other words, no matter how effective US forces have been in destroying Iran's assets in the strait, the financial risk to oil shippers remains.  Insurance companies are the Trump Administration's biggest obstacle, not Iran's military.  Tankers will not budge because there are too many coverage gaps, including the dreaded environmental coverage gap.

Pre-conflict, the insurance premium baseline for the Hormuz was extremely low (0.25% of a ships total value).  Today, those premiums have spiked from 2% to 10%.  Major insurers including P&I clubs like Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard and London P&I issued cancellation notices for war-risk coverage in the Persian Gulf area, effective in March. Reinsurers pulled back, forcing repricing.  The costs are far too high and the risk outweighs the reward. 

Traffic in the strait dropped by 80% almost immediately because of the loss of insurance.  This created a self-reinforcing problem: Even with limited US naval guidance ("Project Freedom") or occasional Iranian-coordinated passages, commercial operators avoid the risk without affordable coverage.

Industry brokers and shipping executives assert that the costs cannot be managed, and they have decided to adopt a "wait and see" approach on negotiations. Marcus Baker, Global Head of Marine, Cargo & Logistics at Marsh notes that tankers remain “insurable, if you’re prepared to take the risk...” but he emphasized the massive cost barrier for most operators.  

Interestingly, Iran's latest negotiation salvo on the strait focuses on their own crypto-based insurance scheme.  It effectively amounts to a "protection racket", forcing companies to buy insurance from the regime in exchange for safe passage.  However, there have been few takers; most shippers don't trust Iran to ensure the safety of their vessels.   

The obvious first solution would be for the Trump Administration to offer US backed coverage for tankers traversing the Hormuz.  This already happened in March.

Early in the war President Trump directed the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and financial guarantees for maritime trade in the Gulf region.  A maritime reinsurance facility was established offering up to $40 billion for hull & machinery, cargo, and in some expansions, liability risks. It partners with major insurers like Chubb and AIG.

The alternative coverage is reasonable, but there are some problems.  The US is not offering full coverage which includes environmental damages should an oil spill take place, along with other gaps which prevent shippers from taking the deal.  It also does not yet guarantee full escort protection for tankers traversing the strait, a factor which has been up in the air due to negotiations. 

Analysts at Moody's note that US government-backed coverage will not fully restart flows without broader liability protections.

In other words, if the Trump Administration wants to get ships moving out of the strait anytime soon, they will have to amend their insurance to cover all gaps including environmental risk.  And, they will have to provide a reliable escort system.  This can be easily accomplished with Littoral combat ships with anti-mine and anti-air capability and anti-drone tech that are able to operate in shallow and narrow waters.  These ships have some of the most advanced automated anti-drone systems in the world.  

Accurate details on negotiations with the Iranian regime are sparse.  Iran's propaganda operations on social media often contradict their own diplomatic statements.  It's important to keep in mind that the regime is concerned with looking weak to their own population, and the constant posturing online is often designed to keep their citizenry in line rather than frighten the US.

There are also questions as to who is actually in charge.  Iran's new "supreme leader" has not been seen alive since the decapitation strikes.  Theories suggest the IRGC has reanimated the corpse of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei through propaganda as a means to maintain a semblance of government authority. 

It may be that no one is really at the wheel in Iran and that current negotiations are nothing more than a stalling tactic while the remaining officials vie for power.  A deal may be close, but alternatives need to be considered.  All other factors aside (including Iran's stockpile of nearly 1000 pounds of 60% enriched Uranium which they openly admit to having), the Strait of Hormuz may require solutions outside of a deal with Iran.  And, those ships simply will not move without some impressive financial guarantees from the US.        

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 20:30

US Deploys Aircraft Carrier To Caribbean As Trump Admin Pressures Cuba Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. military command operating in the Western Hemisphere said on May 20 that an aircraft carrier strike group entered the Caribbean Sea, as the Trump administration heaps pressure on the Cuban communist regime.

In a post on X, U.S. Southern Command said that the USS Nimitz is now in the Caribbean and released video footage of the carrier group. Southern Command did not provide more details about why the carrier group traveled to the region.

The Nimitz, it said, "has proven its combat prowess across the globe, ensuring stability and defending democracy from the Taiwan Strait to the Arabian Gulf."

The Nimitz, commissioned in 1975, carried out joint naval exercises with the Brazilian Navy off the coast of Rio de Janeiro last week, the U.S. Embassy in Brazil said in a May 14 statement.

On May 20, the Department of Justice (DOJ) unsealed a criminal indictment against former Cuban leader Raul Castro, and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a video in Spanish urging Cubans to reject the country's communist leadership.

According to the DOJ indictment, Castro was indicted in connection with the 1996 downing of civilian planes operated by Miami-based exiles. Castro, now 94, was Cuba's defense minister when the planes were shot down, killing four people.

The charges against Castro, the brother of former Cuban leader Fidel Castro, drew pushback from the country's current leader, Miguel Diaz-Canel, in a post on X.

"This is a political maneuver, devoid of any legal foundation, aimed solely at padding the fabricated dossier they use to justify the folly of a military aggression against Cuba," Diaz-Canel wrote.

This year, U.S. President Donald Trump has been ratcheting up talk of regime change in Cuba and said he would potentially initiate a "friendly takeover" of the country if its leadership did not open up its economy to American investment and kick out U.S. adversaries.

When asked what will happen next for the U.S. embargo on Cuba on Wednesday, Trump said, "We're going to see." He added that the U.S. government is ready to provide humanitarian assistance to what he described as a failing country.

Trump said that "there won't be escalation" between the United States and Cuba, adding, "I don't think there needs to be."

"Look, the place is falling apart. It's a mess," Trump added. "They've really lost control of Cuba."

In Cuba, there is no food, electricity, or energy, Trump said, adding that the U.S. government will have to act to assist the country.

Earlier this month, CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Cuba to meet with the country's top officials, a visit that came as the country's energy minister said the island has completely run out of fuel and that its power grid is in a critical state.

In January, the U.S. military launched an operation in Venezuela that captured its president, Nicolas Maduro, an ally of the Cuban regime, and took him to the United States to face drug-trafficking charges.

Since September 2025, the U.S. military has been launching strikes against suspected drug-smuggling boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific Ocean in what the military calls Operation Southern Spear.

Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) sails in the Arabian Sea, on May 3, 2026. Courtesy of the U.S. Navy Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 17:00

Exit Taxes Won't Save Failing States

Authored by Vance Ginn via TheDailyEconomy.org,

When a state starts floating an exit tax, it is telling you something more important than any campaign slogan: the people running the place know their model is not working. 

They may not say it that way. They will call it fairness, responsibility, or making the wealthy “pay what they owe.” But the meaning is the same. 

If families, entrepreneurs, and investors are leaving, the state can either ask why its policies are pushing them out, or it can try to tax them for escaping. An exit tax chooses punishment over reform. 

I understand why these proposals resonate with some people. If you are watching wealthy residents relocate while governments still face bills for schools, roads, pensions, and other commitments, it is easy to feel like the people with the most mobility are ducking the tab. 

That frustration is real. It deserves a serious answer. But an exit tax is not a serious answer. It is a confession that lawmakers would rather cling to a failing fiscal model than fix the spending, regulation, and tax policies that made people want to leave in the first place. 

That is why the current trend is so revealing.

In California, proposals have centered on taxing billionaire net worth, including wealth that often exists on paper rather than in cash. In New York, the push has extended to a new surcharge on high-value second homes in New York City.

In Washington, lawmakers have already enacted a “millionaires’ tax.” These policies differ in form, but not in spirit. They all send the same message: if government has made your state too expensive, too hostile, or too unpredictable, it may still try to claim part of your future anyway. 

The economics are worse than the politics. Supporters talk as if wealth is a pile of idle cash sitting in a vault, just waiting to be skimmed. It is not. Wealth is usually tied up in businesses, shares, property, and future earnings. 

Taxing net worth or unrealized gains means taxing value that often has not been sold, realized, or converted into cash. That can force asset sales, dilute business ownership, weaken investment, and change behavior long before the tax collector ever gets a check.

 A Hoover Institution analysis of California’s proposal found that once likely migration responses are considered, the measure could leave the state with a negative net present value of about $25 billion. That is the real lesson: politicians score the tax statically, but the economy does not sit still. 

And that is before you get to the broader evidence. The OECD has noted that recurring net wealth taxes have become much less common across advanced economies because they tend to raise less revenue than promised while creating large compliance costs, avoidance incentives, and economic distortions. Countries tried them. Many backed away. 

A recent NBER study on Scandinavian wealth taxation found that higher top wealth-tax rates reduced the number of wealthy taxpayers and that many of those taxpayers were business owners whose departure reduced investment, employment, and value-added. 

That is the part too often ignored in political talking points. When a state drives out a founder, investor, or employer, it is not just losing one tax return. It is losing future jobs, future capital formation, and future opportunity for everybody else too. 

Defenders of exit taxes still fall back on one argument that sounds morally satisfying: these taxpayers benefited from state infrastructure, legal protections, and markets while they lived there, so the state deserves one final cut

But that argument quietly rewrites the relationship between citizen and government. It turns moving into a taxable offense. It says the state retains a lingering claim on your success because you once lived under its jurisdiction. That is a dangerous principle in a federal system built on mobility and competition.

 Even in the international arena, exit taxes are controversial, complex, and tied to specific movements of assets or functions across borders. Importing that logic into state tax policy is not modernization. It is escalation. 

The problem is not just that these taxes are bad economics. It is that they usually do not stay narrow. Politicians sell them as a tool aimed only at billionaires or luxury homeowners — policy aimed at an applause line. But when the revenue falls short, the scope expands. 

One-time wealth taxes become annual property surcharges. “Billionaire” thresholds are expanded to target millionaires and eventually the middle class. “Temporary” taxes become permanent fiscal architecture. New York’s pied-à-terre proposal is a good example of how quickly the logic expands once the principle is accepted. 

Frédéric Bastiat warned us to look not just at what is seen, but at what is unseen. We see the tax revenues. That’s a small, visible victory compared to the investment that never happens, the entrepreneur who builds elsewhere, jobs that never arrive — the unseen costs compound. 

Exit taxes are built on ignoring all of that. 

Claiming an exit tax frames mobility as theft, when it is often a rational response to bad governance. They do not restore prosperity. They steal the opportunity to prosper by doubling down on the very policies that made growth harder in the first place. 

If lawmakers want to deter departures, the answer is not a fiscal trap door. It is better policy: lower taxes, lighter regulation, spending restraint, and a serious effort to make their states places where productive people want to stay.

Real economic renewal is more difficult than yet more taxation, but it is also the only approach that works. Exit taxes will not save failing states. They only confirm why people wanted to leave. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 16:20

No Deal Reached, Amid 'Fabricated' Mideast Media Reports; Trump Presses Nuclear Issue & Iran President Says 'Won't Back Down' Summary

• Al Arabiya issues dramatic retraction on prior 'deal reached' reporting.
• Iranian president vows to not back down, as Trump still vows to get nuclear material.
• AI Arabiya TV obtains what it describes as final draft of US-lran agreement, 
• Reuters reported that Ayatollah ordered that stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remain strictly inside Iranian territory. Some Iranian officials then denied report to Al Jazeera.
• WH says make a deal or else... "they can face a punishment from our military the likes of which has not been seen in modern history."
• US Intelligence says Iran has reconstitute drone program, defense industrial base, "faster than expected" (CNN).

//--> //--> //--> Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?
Yes 51% · No 50%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

No Deal Reached: Prior Reports 'Fabricated'

After something like eight hours - which unleashed significant moves in oil and markets - complete retractions are being issued, with words like 'fabrication' used, after which oil swings higher...

Iranian President: Won't Back Down

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has stated, "We will not bow our heads, our ministers and experts are working day and night, without a single day off." He added, per state sources: "We are willing to sacrifice as much as possible for the honor and pride of Iran, and we are not afraid of martyrdom."

And just like that...

Markets reversed earlier gains as Iran's President said on state TV that they won't back down in talks. The momentum then picked up when a "high-level source" told Al-Arabiya that the Pakistani Army Chief will not head to Tehran tonight.

The Pakistani were supposed to head to Iran only when the reach of an agreement was in sight, so this kind of denies the earlier reports of a US and Iran draft agreement.

US stock indices erased more than half of earlier gains. We've seen the same reaction in oil, FX and bond markets but now they are consolidating.

Still, Al Jazeera is reporting that "negotiators are very close to reaching a deal, and are currently working on a draft text. At the same time, another source told Al Jazeera that it is too early to judge whether a serious, final agreement is within reach."

IRNA has cited a Pakistani official who says the talks are "moving in the right direct" - though it's anyone's guess at this point. The prior reported draft did not take up the nuclear issue. Trump continues to press the nuclear issue:

US President Donald Trump has again pledged to seize Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium as part of any agreement over Tehran’s nuclear program.

“Look, we’re going to make sure they don’t have a nuclear weapon or we’re going to have to do something very drastic. I believe when it’s put to the people of our country, they will all agree we cannot let Iran get a nuclear weapon,” Trump told reporters at the White House.

Asked whether Iran could retain its enriched uranium, Trump replied: “No, we will get it. We don’t need it, we don’t want it, we’ll probably destroy it after we get it. But we’re not going to let them have it.”

Oil Plunges on Final Draft of US-Iran Agreement Reached

Is this the one? While we've seen this rodeo before, oil is plunging on a Saudi media report which is positive for peace. Crude hits low of day...

Traders Circulate AI Arabiya TV obtaining what it describes as final draft of US-lran agreement: (CLICK TO SEE KEY PROVISIONS) - UNCONFIRMED

Key provisions include:

1) An immediate, comprehensive, and unconditional ceasefire on all fronts (land, sea, air)

2) Mutual commitment not to target military, civilian, or economic infrastructure

3) Cessation of military operations and instigating media warfare

4) Respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, and non-interference in internal affairs

5) Guaranteed freedom of navigation in the Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Sea of Oman

6) Establishment of a joint monitoring and dispute resolution mechanism

7) Launch of negotiations on outstanding issues within seven days

8) Gradual lifting of U.S. sanctions in exchange for Iran's adherence to the terms

9) Affirmation of compliance with international law and the UN Charter

Importantly, there's no mention of the nuclear issue.

"The agreement is stated to enter into force immediately upon formal announcement by both parties," the Al Arabiya report says.

Saudi’s @AlArabiya TV has obtained what it describes as the final draft of a prospective Pakistani mediated U.S.-Iran agreement, reportedly set to be announced within hours [It does not align with what I am hearing].

Key provisions include:
1) An immediate, comprehensive, and… https://t.co/qxpEDSX04a pic.twitter.com/M0D1hMCD8b

— Basha باشا (@BashaReport) May 21, 2026

Drones, Military Industrial Base Being Rapidly Restored Amid Extended Ceasefire

The Iranians have reportedly rebuilt damaged and destroyed defense industrial sites much faster than expected. That's according to US intelligence assessments cited in CNN, and based on anonymous officials. The Pakistan-mediated talks have been stalled, and each of the last several weeks has seen Washington issue updated peace conditions, only for Tehran to in return counter-issue its own demands. And round and round the indirect negotiation has gone, yet with no breakthrough, or not so much as a step forward.

But perhaps this was all a tactic to simply prolong the ceasefire? It allowed for Iran to rearm and regroup, after the prior 38-days of US-Israeli bombing. "Iran has already restarted some of its drone production during the six-week ceasefire that began in early April, one sign it is rapidly rebuilding certain military capabilities degraded by US-Israeli strikes, according to two sources familiar with US intelligence assessments," CNN reports Thursday. "Four sources told CNN that US intelligence indicates Iran’s military is reconstituting much faster than initially estimated."

One US official cited in the report has gone so far as to say "The Iranians have exceeded all timelines the IC had for reconstitution." In the recent past, White House officials themselves have admitted that the Islamic Republic is probably reconstituting. Trump in the meantime keeps saying he's 'days' away from reordering strikes amid Tehran's intransigence. According to more on Iranian efforts to prepare for the next potential round of fighting:

The rebuilding of military capabilities, including replacing missile sites, launchers and production capacity for key weapons systems destroyed during the current conflict, means that Iran remains a significant threat to regional allies should President Donald Trump restart the bombing campaign, according to the four sources familiar with the intelligence. It also calls into question claims about the extent to which US-Israeli strikes have degraded Iran’s military in the long term.

While the time to restart production of different weapons components varies, some US intelligence estimates indicate Iran could fully reconstitute its drone attack capability in as soon as six months, one of the sources, a US official, told CNN.

They already tried that. It did not work. https://t.co/1OEZ50d5st

— Scott Horton (@scotthortonshow) May 21, 2026

Iranian Denials

Throughout the morning, and since the Reuters report was first issued, various unnamed Iranian officials are saying the Ayatollah gave no such order regarding taking enriched uranium removal off the table when it comes to potential negotiations. According to an Al Jazeera correspondent: 

A senior Iranian official denied to me reports that Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei has issued a new order requiring enriched uranium to remain inside Iran, saying they are “propaganda by the enemies of the deal” The official added there are “no new order has been issued,” and that Tehran’s position has been consistent: Iran would downblend the material itself. “That is the subject of talks in the next stage,” the official said.

This will likely only fuel speculation of deep division within Iranian leadership ranks. Traditionally the IRGC reports directly to the Ayatollah, and is seen as the more hardline faction, ready to resist compromise and opt for a military response to US pressure.

Oil snaps lower on the denials... per Newsquawk:

In an immediate reaction, crude fell to the detriment of the USD and the benefit of equity and fixed benchmarks. Specifically:

• WTI Jul'26 fell from USD 102/bbl to USD 100.56/bbl.
• UST Jun'26 lifted from 109-00 to 109-04+.
• ES Jun'26 lifted from 7418 to 7433.

Ayatollah Orders Enriched Uranium To Say On Iranian Soil: RTRS

The illusion of a grand diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East is once again colliding with reality. The White House has been busy trying to paint a picture of a total capitulation by Tehran, which hasn't been demonstrated given its consistent position defying Washington's demands on the nuclear issue.

According to two senior Iranian officials speaking to Reuters, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has drawn a hard line in the sand, ordering that Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remain strictly inside Iranian territory.

Office of the Supreme Leader, via Reuters

Reuters underscores that "Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei's order could further frustrate U.S. President Donald Trump and complicate talks on ending the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran."

"Israeli officials have told Reuters that ‌Trump has assured Israel that Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, needed to make an atomic weapon, will be sent out of Iran and that any peace deal must include a clause on this," the report continues.

The officials noted that within Tehran, there is deep suspicion that the ceasefire is in fact "a tactical deception by the US," designed to lull Iran into a "false sense of security... before the fighting resumes."

The fresh directive from from the supreme leader flies directly in the face of the narrative being spun by Washington and Tel Aviv, given Israeli officials maintain that President Trump explicitly promised Israel that Iran's highly enriched stockpile would be completely removed from the country as part of any negotiated settlement.

Trump has also recently proclaimed this publicly, for example in a phone interview with CBS News last month, wherein he confidently proclaimed that Iran "agreed to everything" and would cooperate fully to ship its enriched uranium out of the country.

Extraction of nuclear material would of course rely heavily on the assumption of total Iranian compliance, given Trump has also lately appeared to rule out out a hostile invasion force, stating, "No. No troops."

There seems to be widespread agreement among national security officials at this point that some kind of special forces op to covertly go in and take it would be tantamount to a 'suicide mission'.

According to more of what Trump (prematurely) proclaimed in the prior CBS interview: "Our people, together with the Iranians, are going to work together to go get it. And then we'll take it to the United States."

The reality is all along the two sides' positions have been very far apart, and largely unbending:

And on a potential deal: "We'll be getting it together because by that time, we'll have an agreement and there's no need for fighting when there's an agreement. Nice right? That's better. We would have done it the other way if we had to" - he sought to explain.

At the moment, Iranian officials are reportedly reviewing the latest updated US proposals for peace, having reportedly asked Pakistan for time to assess and study the American points for negotiations."

However, Khamenei locking down the 60% enriched uranium inside Iranian borders, and amid suspicion that the US ceasefire offer is but a Trojan horse to get the Islamic Republic to simply given up its potential last line of defense, doesn't bode well for the chances of a breakthrough anytime soon.

//--> //--> //--> Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Yes 18% · No 83%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

For the latest warning from the White House, via Stephen Miller: "Iran has a choice to make: they can either agree to a piece of paper that is satisfactory to the United States, or they can face a punishment from our military the likes of which has not been seen in modern history. That's the choice they face" - he told Fox News.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 16:15

Trump Posts Article Laying Out: "Here's How To Crush Tehran In Three Moves"

President Trump on Thursday posted to Truth Social a New York Post article which was first published over two weeks ago, on May 1st, with the headline "Here's how to crush Tehran in three moves."

Trump's new social media post, issued without additional comment, comes just after news of Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei having drawn a hard line in the sand, ordering that Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remain strictly inside Iranian territory. So now the world awaits what's next at a moment the White House has renewed threats of massive military strikes if Iran doesn't quickly come to the table and conform.

The NY Post article had straight-faced and without a hint of intended irony proclaimed: "President Trump has the upper hand." That statement was issued on day 63 of Trump's Iran war. Today is day 83.

What did the interim look like as the world's most powerful military force has been unable to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, amid constant threats to take new, bigger military action - but which never actually materializes (at least not yet) no matter how many times the Iranians reject Washington's terms?

The below timeline and outline, stretching from last week into this one, basically illustrates the weekly Trump pattern that's been on display going back many weeks at this point: 

• Wed: Iran wants a deal. They called us 
• Thu: We are looking at proposals
• Fri: We might be close. Very close
• Sat: Iran knows what to do
• Sun: OBLITERATION. TOTAL. COMPLETE. They have 24 hrs. 
• Mon: The storm is coming 
• Tue: I'm giving it more time

This is what 'winning' looks like according to the NY Post, apparently. The publication also feels itself in a position to give 'advice' and guidance to the White House on executing a war. "His best path forward is to pursue three lines of effort in parallel," author Richard Goldberg (of Foundation for Defense of Democracies) wrote. It must be remembered that very recently a former senior official from FDD Action, the think tank's lobbying arm, joined Trump's Iran negotiating team - his name is Nick Stewart.

Here are the three:

1. Sustain the blockade and accompanying economic warfare to destabilize the regime’s hold on the state;
2. Remake the world in America's energy dominance image to mitigate long-term price impacts while undermining China's global ambition to defeat the United States;
3. Order the US military to forge a path through the Strait of Hormuz to restore freedom of navigation on our terms not Tehran’s.

...if only simply ordering a military "path through" was that easy!

NurPhoto via Getty Images

"You might call the latter Operation Epic Passage — a combined naval and air mission of self-defense that offers escort to tankers and restores freedom of navigation, all while making clear to Tehran the devastating consequences of breaking cease-fire," Goldberg, who openly boasts of his close ties to the Israeli government, also wrote. He further offered the mission name of "Blockade Plus".

After the opening days and weeks of Operation Epic Fury, when it became clear that the large-scale US and Israeli bombardment would not produced regime change in Iran, pundits widely questioned whether the Trump White House actually had a plan, or long-term strategic vision for the military mission. 

And now, after more than 80 days in, the public gets Trump posting a NY Post article by a hawkish FDD writer, which seems more focused merely on ways to mitigate the blowback and 'make the best' of a failed regime change operation, in the wake of the administration's constantly evolving stated goals.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 15:50

Rickards: Investing In A World In Turmoil

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

To say that the world is in turmoil to an extent not seen since the 1960s is an understatement.

The war in Ukraine is now in its fifth year. The war in Iran continues with no end in sight, despite Trump’s optimistic talk. NATO may be nearing the break-up stage as Trump pulls U.S. troops out of Germany.

Energy prices are soaring, inflation has accelerated sharply again, consumer confidence has fallen sharply, debt is at an all-time high and supply chains are breaking down.

Yet the major U.S. stock indices are at or near all-time highs.

What accounts for record stock prices amid almost unprecedented turmoil?

There are a number of key factors supporting stocks. The most obvious is the AI frenzy. This has two aspects. The first is that AI applications can improve productivity. The second is that the build-out of data centers with the most advanced semiconductors has led to a $1 trillion capital investment tsunami as Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic and other AI providers build their server farms.

The next factor is related to the first and is often called the picks-and-shovels trade. The idea is that those who benefit in a gold rush are not the gold miners but the merchants who sell tools, clothes, supplies and other goods the miners need.

In the AI gold rush, the winners are electricity suppliers, builders, hardware manufacturers (semiconductors and servers) and small towns where the server farms are located. These suppliers will do well today whether AI lives up to its promise or not.

Passive Aggression

Another major factor is passive investing. An enormous amount of U.S. wealth is held in 401(k)s, IRAs and assets under management by wealth managers.

Relatively few of the account holders (or, for that matter, wealth managers) really understand active stock investing or risk management. Instead, they buy index funds, ETFs or other equity basket products that track the stock market itself or a specified segment.

When money is put into these index funds, the manager buys the stocks in the index. That buying pushes stock prices higher. That attracts more money, more buying and more gains in a positive feedback loop that drives stocks even higher. No Ph.D. is required. You just buy the index, sit back and enjoy the ride.

FOMO and TINA

Two other factors related to the passive investing feedback loop are fear of missing out (FOMO) and the idea that there is no alternative (TINA). It’s difficult to show up at a cocktail party or the country club when all of your friends are touting their stock gains and you’re not in the market.

It’s also difficult to put money in 4% cash equivalents or assets like gold when stocks seem set to deliver 10% returns as far as the eye can see.

FOMO and TINA have nothing to do with fundamental stock analysis. But they are real and powerful drivers of human behavior.

It’s not all fairy dust, however. There are actual fundamental drivers behind stock gains. Corporate profits are coming in strong (despite some high-profile missed estimates). U.S. energy self-sufficiency will keep the lights on in the U.S. and help prevent 1970s-style gas lines — even if we are not immune to the impact of higher prices.

That’s the argument for higher stock prices despite global problems. What could possibly go wrong?

Unrecognized Risks

The greatest threat to higher stock prices is that the market has not fully discounted the impact of the war in Iran and the unprecedented disruption in the supply of oil, liquid natural gas, nitrates for fertilizer, helium, sulphur, aluminum and other critical inputs.

The reality of these shortages has not hit home (with the exception of higher prices for gasoline and oil), but that does not mean the coast is clear.

An enormous amount of oil supply was already on vessels that left the Strait of Hormuz before the war began. That “floating supply chain” took weeks to be delivered to end users. That process has now been completed; the last deliveries have been made. There is nothing else on the way.

Major manufacturing nations like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and China are now using up reserves. These may last another month or so. The critical point at which reserves are gone, no resupply is on the way and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed grows nearer by the day.

Even if the strait reopens tomorrow, the current shortages will raise prices, disrupt supply chains and possibly lead to a global recession. Markets seem to be ignoring this possibility in favor of a narrative that says the strait will reopen soon and all will be well.

Great Expectations (for AI)

Eventually, it may also occur to markets that AI is not producing any revenue. It’s consuming $1 trillion in capital and promising untold riches, but those riches have yet to materialize. AI is a powerful technology and it’s here to stay. But that does not mean it will be particularly profitable. It may even hurt growth if hundreds of thousands of skilled workers are laid off.

There are serious reasons to believe that AI will not be that productive at all. Output errors (called “slop”) not only cast doubt on the reliability of AI, but are also populating the internet, which AI itself uses as a training set for new applications.

More slop in the training set means even less reliable output than earlier versions. The dream of superintelligence (artificial general intelligence, AGI) is out of reach because of the inability of engineers to code abductive logic.

If the AI bubble bursts (which I expect), it will not only hurt the Mag 7 stocks but also the picks-and-shovels plays around it.

The Private Credit Canary

A separate trigger for a market meltdown is the crisis in private credit. Funds sponsored by top managers like Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, KKR, Morgan Stanley and others are severely limiting investor withdrawals.

Complicating matters further, if fund managers try to sell assets quickly, there may be very few buyers unless the seller agrees to slash the price dramatically — sometimes by half or more compared with the stated “book value.”

Supporters of private credit say that this private market is only worth about $4 trillion and that even 20% write-offs will not jeopardize the system. But this calculation ignores the impact of leverage and the effects of contagion. Losses in private credit can trigger runs on mid-tier banks, which then spread to funds that hold those mid-tier bank stocks and so on.

The Dark Side of Passive

But the greatest threat to the stock market may be the dominance of passive investing.

The same buying dynamic that drives stock prices higher can work in reverse. A market drawdown can cause investors to sell their index funds. This causes fund managers to sell the underlying stocks, which takes down the indices, causing more selling by investors and so on.

While passive investing can push markets higher gradually, it can also drive them lower with startling speed and violence.

What’s an investor to do? The positive story for stocks is real, but the downside potential is equally real. The solution is to hedge by diversifying your portfolio. Keep some stocks, but also maintain a slice of cash, a slice of gold and medium-term U.S. Treasury notes.

Gold is the everything hedge. Treasury notes are secure and will rally when the recession goes into high gear. Cash will give you the option to go shopping for bargains when everyone else is dumping stocks.

TINA and FOMO are not your friends. Diversification is.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 15:40

Rubio: Diplomacy Will Be Rendered 'Impossible' If Iran Enacts Hormuz Toll System

Iran has been seeking to significantly expand the area around the Strait of Hormuz over which it claims military control by this week advancing the newly-created government agency of the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority".

The agency quickly published a map proclaiming "Iranian armed forces oversight" across more than 22,000 sq km (8,800 sq miles) of the Hormuz waterway. Now, all transit through the strait "requires coordination with and authorization from the Persian Gulf Strait Authority" - the new entity announced.

Of course, Washington has made clear that international vessels must not comply with Iran's rules. Yet Tehran is Wednesday into Thursday claiming some 'victories' in this regard. 

The Iranians say they are in active discussions with Oman to establish a permanent toll system for maritime traffic passing through the strait, according to Iran’s ambassador to France, Mohammad Amin-Nejad.

"Iran and Oman must mobilize all their resources both to provide security services and to manage navigation in the most appropriate manner, prevent pollution, and simply strive to establish an order so that global trade is not subject to disruptions. This will entail costs, and it goes without saying that those who wish to benefit from this traffic must also pay their share," Amin-Nejad said, as cited in Bloomberg.

Amin-Nejad further asserted the potential costs would be "clear, transparent, reasonable, and logical" - though the system is not yet in place. An initial toll proposal, which some companies may have already paid in order to get their stranded vessels out, was reportedly up to $2 million per tanker.

Iran is also touting that China and and South Korea have been in direct communication to arrange passage of their ships:

Iran continues to control the flow of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz for political and propaganda gains as the war of words continues over the peace negotiations. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy is claiming to have increased the flow with Chinese tankers and the first South Korean tanker permitted to make the transit, while many other vessels continue to wait.

...The IRGC Navy released a statement claiming that in the past 24 hours, a total of 26 vessels safely transited the Strait of Hormuz. It said this included tankers as well as containerships and other vessels. It asserted, however, that they were all “under the coordination and security support” of the IRGC Navy. They said all the ships making the transit had obtained prior authorization and required close coordination with the IRGC. 

...South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced May 20 that its first tanker had been able to make the transit carrying about two million barrels of crude bound for Ulsan. It said there are 25 other South Korean-flagged vessels still caught in the Persian Gulf, but it was significant after Iran refused transit a month ago to another South Korean tanker that was reportedly bound for Pakistan.

If Tehran can attract each country to make separate deals for the passage of their ships, this will be hailed as a 'win' for Iran and its Hormuz protocols. 

But the US and its regional allies are not buying into Iran's narrative, with the UAE having described Iran's claims of control as "nothing but fragments of dreams."

And importantly, on Thursday US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz would render a diplomatic deal unfeasible and that the US remains "very upset with NATO" their response to the Iran crisis. He said: 

"A toll collection system in the Strait of Hormuz will make a diplomatic deal impossible."

"We are very disappointed with NATO allies, we will discuss the issue of troop deployment at the upcoming meeting."

Some vessels are paying Iranian authorities more than $150,000 for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, sources told Reuters. The US has warned that such payments might trigger American sanctions but some ship owners are paying anyway https://t.co/87HQZcBDcr pic.twitter.com/nuc7UXaFX9

— Reuters (@Reuters) May 21, 2026

But at this point, Tehran doesn't look to be in a rush to complete a deal. Trump could be ready to indefinitely withhold new military strikes, and Iran is busy rearming and regrouping. Also, as enough time passes with the stalemated situation in place, Tehran is likely to convince more countries that they have no choice but to deal with the Islamic Republic directly.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 15:20

Democrats Move To Block Trump's $1.776 Billion 'Anti-Weaponization' Fund

Via American Greatness,

Congressional Democrats are moving to shut down President Donald Trump’s proposed $1.776 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund, escalating a political fight over compensation for Americans who say they were targeted by politically motivated prosecutions and federal lawfare.

Rep. Jamie Raskin, the top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, is introducing legislation aimed at preventing any federal money from being used to create or distribute payments through the fund.

According to a copy of the bill shared with Axios, the legislation states that “no Federal funds may be used to create or make payments” tied to the Trump administration’s Anti-Weaponization Fund.

The fund emerged from a settlement between Trump and the Internal Revenue Service after the president sued the agency over the leaking of his confidential tax returns during his first term.

Under the settlement framework, individuals claiming they were victims of politically motivated prosecutions or government abuse would be able to seek compensation.

Potential applicants could include January 6 defendants and others who were unfairly targeted by federal authorities.

Raskin is reportedly considering using a discharge petition to force a House vote if Republican leadership blocks the measure from reaching the floor.

At the same time, some establishment Republicans are also voicing opposition to the fund. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick told reporters Wednesday that he would “try to kill” the program.

“We’re going to write a letter to the [attorney general] to start, but we’re considering a legislative option,” Fitzpatrick said.

Supporters of the fund argue it represents a long-overdue effort to compensate Americans harmed by politically driven prosecutions and abuses of government power.

Critics, meanwhile, claim the program would improperly use taxpayer money to compensate individuals tied to controversial investigations, including those connected to the January 6 Capitol protest.

Two law enforcement officers who were present at the Capitol on Jan. 6 have already filed a lawsuit seeking to dissolve the fund entirely.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 15:00

Marcus Lemonis Fires Back On X Over Claims Camping World Spiraling Toward Bankruptcy

America's largest RV dealer and service chain, selling new and used motorhomes, travel trailers, and more for outdoor living, has been under pressure over the past several years as high interest rates have crushed RV demand.

An X user with the handle "Roger" laid out his thesis on why Camping World is next on the list to "file Chapter 11 bankruptcy with $3.5 billion of unpayable debt," adding, "West Marine (one of the largest boat suppliers in the US) just filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy today, holding over $1 billion in debt."

Camping World $CWH expected to file Chapter 11 bankruptcy with $3.5 billion of unpayable debt.

West Marine (one of largest boat suppliers in US) just filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy today holding over $1 billion in debt.

RV and Boat Bankruptcies. The signs are clear. pic.twitter.com/hBUvxQ5sWJ

— Roger (@rdd147) May 21, 2026

Camping World Revenues and Liabilities

Roger added, "RV and Boat Bankruptcies. The signs are clear."

Same boat as West Marine. Camping World is in Final stages of screwing the landlord to pay the debt holders. pic.twitter.com/25KTtPlZcq

— Roger (@rdd147) May 21, 2026

Shares of Camping World have been locked in a brutal bear market since peaking near $45 in late 2021, with the stock now down about 86% as of Thursday. The sell-off has pushed shares back toward Covid-era lows, as high interest rates continue to choke off RV demand and corporate America as a whole warns that consumers have significantly dialed back on big-ticket items (read here).

Responding on X to Roger's bear thesis on Camping World was none other than Marcus Lemonis, CEO of Bed Bath & Beyond, co-founder of Camping World, and TV personality.

Lemonis said Roger's view that Camping World was sliding toward bankruptcy was "totally false."

Totally false

— Marcus Lemonis (@marcuslemonis) May 21, 2026

Roger then responded to Lemonis: "Explain. Why are liabilities rising, in particular lease obligations? Paying debt holders and not rent is end-stage preparation. See West Marine. Couldn't pay its leases."

Explain. Why are liabilities rising, in particular lease obligations?

Paying debt holders and not rent is end stage preparation. See West Marine. Couldn’t pay its leases.

Honestly happy to hear an assessment pic.twitter.com/7uzCrIdtq2

— Roger (@rdd147) May 21, 2026

Roger ended with: "Honestly, happy to hear an assessment."

The CEO just entered the chat and bodied you. You shorting the company or?

— Brandox (@AngelsKill) May 21, 2026

Here is Wall Street's view on Camping World:

And the fact that Marcus Lemonis felt compelled to respond to a random X user raises its own set of questions.

False. Do your research

— Marcus Lemonis (@marcuslemonis) May 21, 2026

The stock is 21% short, equivalent to about 12.5 million shares, with 2.7 days to cover. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 14:40

Getting An 'A' At Harvard Will Be Tougher Starting In 2027

Authored by Micaiah Bilger via The College Fix,

Two thirds of faculty vote to approve cap on A grades for undergrads...

Harvard University faculty gave an emphatic “yes” to capping A grades in a vote Wednesday amid concerns about grade inflation and academic rigor at the prestigious institution.

Approximately 70 percent voted to approve the 20-percent cap on As in undergraduate courses, The Crimson, Harvard’s student newspaper, reports. Nearly 700 professors participated in the vote. The measure will go into effect in the fall of 2027.

Harvard psychology Professor Steven Pinker praised the decision in an X post Wednesday, calling it “a big step in combatting the grade inflation that has been dumbing down our courses, conveying the wrong message to students, and making universities a national laughingstock.”

Another professor, political scientist Max Abrams at Northeastern University noted the impact of the decision on other higher education institutions. 

Harvard isn’t just some university. Many universities look to Harvard to inform their own decisions. I am strongly in favor of Harvard’s moves to reduce grade inflation. When everyone gets an A there is no signal. pic.twitter.com/Tpb4enuADA

— Max Abrahms (@MaxAbrahms) May 20, 2026

Other scholars called for their Ivy League institutions to follow Harvard’s lead.

Along with limiting As, the faculty also approved a measure by a large majority “to use average percentile rankings, rather than GPA, to determine internal awards and honors,” according to The Crimson.

A third measure within the proposal did not pass. It would have allowed professors “to petition to opt out of the A cap” if the grading for their course is on an “unsatisfactory, satisfactory, and satisfactory-plus basis,” the report states:

When the proposal was first introduced in February, its architects pitched the A cap and percentile-ranking system as paired reforms: the ranking system would prevent students from avoiding larger or more difficult courses in search of better grades under the cap.

After pushback, the subcommittee separated the measures into distinct votes, delayed implementation by a year to fall 2027, and added a “satisfactory-plus” designation for courses that chose to opt out of the system.

In the weeks before the vote, some faculty also pushed for a more complicated alternative to the“20 percent plus four” formula that would have tightened limits in smaller courses. But that amendment failed to make it onto the final ballot after faculty favored the original formula in a preliminary poll.

All three proposals came from a Harvard faculty committee in response to a report that found 60 percent of all undergraduate grades are now As – a 35 percent increase compared to 20 years ago.

In a statement after the vote Wednesday, the committee said the change will help restore integrity to the institution.

“This matters for our students above all,” they stated. “A Harvard A grade will now tell them, as well as employers and graduate schools, something real about what a student has achieved. An A will once again be what Harvard’s guidelines have long said it is: a mark of extraordinary distinction.”

Despite widespread concerns about grade inflation, Harvard students overwhelmingly opposed the cap, American Council of Trustees and Alumni fellow Steve McGuire pointed out on X. 

Now get rid of student course evaluations. pic.twitter.com/2xql1bW49U

— Steve McGuire (@sfmcguire79) May 20, 2026

One petition launched by a freshman claimed that the grading reforms would be “racially harmful,” The College Fix reported in April.

Concerns about grade inflation have arisen at other institutions as well, including Yale and Columbia universities and Swarthmore College in Pennsylvania. Additionally, some professors say they are under pressure not to fail students.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 13:40

The News-to-Death Ratio Strikes Again

Authored by Carl Henegan and Tom Jefferson via The Brownstone Institute,

There is a peculiar arithmetic that governs modern health reporting, one that has very little to do with actual risk. Hans Rosling captured it neatly during the 2009 swine flu episode, when he calculated a “news-to-death ratio” of 8,176-to-1. In other words, for every death attributed to swine flu, there were over eight thousand news stories. Tuberculosis, by contrast, received less than 0.1 news stories per death over the same period.

If that sounds absurd, it is, and yet very little has changed.

Take the current hantavirus scare. A cruise ship, the MV Hondius, sits off Cape Verde. There are 7 cases in total (2 confirmed, 5 suspected) and 3 deaths, including a Dutch couple and a German national. Passengers have been confined to their cabins while evacuations and disinfection efforts are organised. It is, undeniably, a dramatic story: a floating Petri dish, a whiff of quarantine, and a hint of the exotic.

In the past week alone, there have been at least 10 to 15 unique news stories, generating hundreds of articles. For a disease that, in normal times, struggles to attract even a single weekly mention, this represents a surge bordering on the hysterical.

And yet it is worth stepping back for a moment and asking, what are we actually looking at?

Hantavirus is a rare disease. In the United States, which diligently tracks such cases, there have been 890 laboratory-confirmed instances since 1993. In the UK, the situation is even less clear: from 2012 to early 2025, only 11 domestically acquired symptomatic cases have been recorded. Surprisingly, nine of these cases were not linked to cruise ships or exotic travel, but rather to a more mundane source—exposure to “pet fancy rats” or rodents bred as reptile feed.

This is not a pathogen ready to spread through the Home Counties. However, the rarity is not the issue; visibility is.

Diseases that afflict the poor, quietly and persistently, rarely command attention. Tuberculosis killed 1.23 million people globally in 2024. Over a million deaths every year, largely concentrated in less affluent parts of the world. It is one of the most lethal infectious diseases known to medicine, and yet it barely registers in the Western news cycle.

Why? Because TB is familiar, it is slow; It lacks narrative flair, and it does not trap well-heeled passengers in their cabins while helicopters circle overhead.

If you want coverage, you need something else entirely. You need novelty, uncertainty, and above all, proximity to affluence. A cruise ship outbreak ticks every box: a disease with a balcony suite.

This is the uncomfortable truth behind Rosling’s ratio: the media does not report risk, it reports drama. And drama requires context that audiences can imagine themselves in.

A rodent-borne virus in some remote rural setting barely registers. Put that very same virus aboard a cruise ship with buffet queues, balcony cabins, and a passenger list that looks uncomfortably like the readership, and suddenly it becomes headline news.

The result is a profound distortion of public perception. We are invited to worry about the improbable while ignoring the inevitable and reality. A handful of hantavirus cases generates dozens of headlines; a million tuberculosis deaths pass with barely a murmur.

If we were to apply Rosling’s lens to the present moment, the imbalance would be obvious. Three deaths linked to a suspected hantavirus cluster have produced hundreds of reports in a matter of days. Meanwhile, tuberculosis continues its relentless toll with scarcely a fraction of that attention.

The modern “news-to-death ratio” may not be precisely 8,176-to-1, but the underlying pattern remains intact.

The lesson here isn’t truly about hantavirus; instead, it’s about how we collectively determine what is significant.

Diseases associated with poverty—those that are endemic, predictable, and devastating—often fail to attract media attention because they don’t instill fear in the right audience or in the right way. No one is interested in the thousands of cholera deaths that are too remote, too ordinary, and lack the dramatic impact that draws interest. What commands attention are diseases that puncture our sense of safety, the kind that can slip past the gangway and make themselves at home on a cruise ship.

This post was written by two old geezers who live in a world where risk is misread, priorities are skewed, and the arithmetic of attention bears little resemblance to the arithmetic of death.

Republished from the authors’ Substack

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 13:00

Trump EPA Targets Biden-Era Refrigerant Rules In Affordability Push

Watch Live 

President Trump Participates in an Announcement with the Administrator of the EPA https://t.co/lZJTv7m8HJ

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) May 21, 2026

* * * 

The Trump administration plans to delay compliance with Biden-era EPA regulations targeting hydrofluorocarbons later today. These regulations apply to refrigerants used in air conditioners, refrigerators, supermarket cooling systems, refrigerated trucks, cold storage, and some industrial applications.

Bloomberg reports that the EPA's 2023 Technology Transitions Rule, enacted under the American Innovation and Manufacturing Act, will be rolled back, with an estimated cost savings of more than $2.4 billion.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said the Biden-era rules imposed costly and unrealistic requirements that exceeded the law.

Americans were right to be frustrated with the Biden-era refrigerant rules. They didn't protect human health or the environment and instead piled on costly, unattainable restrictions beyond what the law requires," Zeldin told the outlet in a statement.

Zeldin added, "Today, the Trump EPA is fulfilling President Trump's promise to lower costs and is fixing every problem we can under the authority Congress gave us."

President Trump and Zeldin are set to announce the rollback of Biden-era EPA regulations at a White House event later today. Zeldin's team is also preparing to propose additional rollbacks on hydrofluorocarbon regulations for refrigerated transport.

C-SPAN says Trump and Zeldin are set to announce the Oval Office at 11:00 ET.

The move here fits within Trump's broader deregulation agenda, which has focused on rolling back Biden-era environmental rules and lowering compliance costs for businesses to induce an economic boom.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 10:15

US PMIs Lead The World As Manufacturing Tops 4-Year Highs, Services Sink

Following Japan's ugly PMIs (Services lowest since March 2025) and Europe's disaster (weakest composite EU PMI since late 2023)...

...with prices surging...

All eyes are on the US 'soft' survey data for signs of divergence (or contagion).

With US 'hard' data improving notably, the preliminary soft survey data for May was mixed with improved performance in manufacturing was countered by a sluggish service sector.

• Flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 50.9 (April: 51.0). 2-month low.

• Flash US Manufacturing PMI: 55.3 (April: 54.5). 48-month high. 

Source: Bloomberg

“The damaging economic impact from the war in the Middle East is becoming increasingly evident in the business surveys," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

"The ‘flash’ PMI data for May recorded only modest growth of business activity as demand was again squeezed by a further spike in prices and jobs were cut as firms worried over rising costs and the economic outlook.

Coming on the heels of a subdued April reading, the May PMI indicates that the economy will struggle to manage annualized GDP growth of much more than 1% in the second quarter...

However, Williamson notes that even this subdued pace of growth may not last.

"On average, over the past three months order book growth has slowed to its weakest for two years, and a boost from precautionary stock building due to concerns over further price hikes and supply delays will not last forever.

Demand also looks set to cool further in response to rising prices.

"Firms’ costs have jumped higher at a pace not seen since the energy price shock of 2022 and are being passed on to customers in the form of sharply higher selling prices. The survey price gauges therefore indicate that inflation looks set to rise further just as the economy cools.”

Finally, while the composite numbers are not that encouraging, on a relative basis, US looks dominant...

Maybe trump was right about the impact of the war on everyone else? (Just don't tell anyone who drives!)

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 09:54

Lilly's Next-Gen Weight-Loss Drug Clears Trial With Near-Bariatric Surgery Results

Eli Lilly reported positive Phase 3 results for its next-generation obesity drug, retatrutide, which delivered weight-loss results on par with those of bariatric surgery.

In the TRIUMPH-1 trial, overweight adults, but without diabetes, achieved meaningful weight loss across all tested doses after 80 weeks:

• 12 mg dose: average weight loss of 70.3 pounds, or 28.3% of body weight.

• 9 mg dose: average weight loss of 64.4 pounds, or 25.9%.

• 4 mg dose: average weight loss of 47.2 pounds, or 19%

Ahead of the results, RBC Capital Markets analyst Trung Huynh said the key success range would be 28% to 30% weight loss.

Lilly's 12 mg dose appears to have cleared the low end of Huynh's bar, with patients losing an average of 28.3% of their body weight over 80 weeks.

"We're in a zone that's historically been associated with bariatric surgery, and you're getting it with a medicine," Kenneth Custer, president of Lilly Cardiometabolic Health, told Bloomberg in an interview.

Custer added, "I think we can definitively check the box" based on the data that "retatrutide moves the goalpost on max efficacy."

Retatrutide is a first-in-class triple hormone receptor agonist targeting GIP, GLP-1, and glucagon, positioning it as potentially superior to current weight-loss drugs such as Lilly's Zepbound, Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, and copycat GLP-1s.

Lilly noted some downsides to taking the drug in the trial:

Events of dysesthesia and urinary tract infections were generally mild to moderate, the majority resolved during treatment, and most participants continued taking retatrutide

In markets, Lilly shares rose about 1% in premarket trading in New York, while shares of the Wegovy competitor, Novo Nordisk, traded in Copenhagen, fell slightly.

Latest in the GLP-1 space:

• HIMS Shares Plunge As Pivot To Branded GLP-1s Weighs On Outlook

The key question is whether bariatric surgery begins to lose favor among patients as next-generation obesity medications replicate, or come close to replicating, surgery-level weight loss without an invasive procedure.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 09:40

The post Forget Citizens United: Think Media appeared first on CEPR.

Quantum Stocks Erupt As U.S. Gov't Awards $2 Billion, Takes Equity Stakes

IBM and small-cap quantum names, including IonQ, D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, Infleqtion, and other peers, are surging in New York premarket trading after a Wall Street Journal report said the Trump administration is preparing to award $2 billion in CHIPS Act grants to nine quantum-computing companies.

IBM is set to receive half of the $2 billion tranche, or about $1 billion, as the large-cap leader in the race to build quantum computing systems that could revolutionize national security, accelerate scientific discovery, and deliver a range of other economic benefits.

WSJ, citing the Commerce Department, outlined the companies expected to receive funding from the 2022 Chips and Science Act:

The department has agreed to give $1 billion of the package to IBM, a leader in the race to build computers that use quantum mechanics to solve problems much faster than traditional supercomputers.

. . .

IBM and other companies are working to develop specialized chips for quantum computing, a focus for the government in its bid to spur domestic supply chains. Chip maker GlobalFoundries is receiving $375 million in funding.

The rest of the firms are expected to receive $100 million, except for startup Diraq, which is slated to get $38 million.

A slew of companies pursuing various approaches to quantum are slated to be awarded funds, including publicly traded firms D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing and Infleqtion.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's strategy of using federal funding in exchange for equity stakes will also apply to the quantum computing companies listed above. This is similar to a series of other deals, especially in the rare earths space, including rare-earth magnet maker Vulcan Elements and mining company MP Materials.

US TO GRANT $2B TO 9 QUANTUM COMPUTING FIRMS, TAKE STAKES: WSJ

Among companies receiving funds:

IBM: $1BN
GFS: $375MM
QBTS: $100MM
RGTI: $100MM
INFQ: $100MM

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 21, 2026

Lutnick stated, "The Trump administration is leading the world into a new era of American innovation."

In premarket trading, IBM rose 6%, D-Wave Quantum soared 19%, Rigetti Computing jumped 15%, and IONQ up 9%.

Quantum computing benefits:

• National security: Quantum systems could eventually break parts of today's encryption, forcing governments, banks, defense firms, and cloud providers to move toward post-quantum cybersecurity. It also has potential uses in secure communications, advanced sensing, navigation, and intelligence systems.

• AI and scientific discovery: Quantum computing could accelerate complex simulations used in materials science, drug discovery, chemistry, energy systems, and advanced manufacturing. Combined with AI, it could shorten research cycles that currently take years.

• Semiconductors and supply chains: The race is not only about software. It requires specialized chips, cryogenics, photonics, control systems, and advanced manufacturing capacity, making it a strategic industrial-policy priority similar to AI chips.

• Finance and logistics: Quantum algorithms could improve optimization problems, including portfolio modeling, risk analysis, routing, supply-chain planning, and energy-grid management.

"Everybody is excited about quantum because it is the next big thing. A lot of the expectations and hopes have yet to be realized," said Dana Goward, president of the Resilient Navigation and Timing Foundation.

It is important to note that quantum computing remains in the early stages, is expensive, and is technically challenging.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently said that "very useful" standalone quantum computers are still roughly 15 to 20 years away.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 07:45