"We Can't Live Like This Anymore!" - Residents Demand Action As Migrant-Linked Violence Spirals In Rome

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Residents in Rome’s San Lorenzo district are sounding the alarm over a surge in violence they say is increasingly driven by homeless migrants, after another brutal street attack left a man hospitalized and renewed calls for urgent security measures.

The latest incident unfolded in Piazza di Porta San Lorenzo, where a 30-year-old Gambian man allegedly slashed a Moroccan man with a broken bottle in the middle of the street, striking his neck and face and leaving him collapsed on the ground.

The victim was rushed to Umberto I Hospital, where he remains in serious condition, while police used footage captured at the scene to quickly identify and arrest the suspect after he fled.

For many locals, however, the attack is just the latest in a growing pattern. Residents say the area has become dominated by groups of vagrants, often intoxicated or under the influence of drugs, who regularly fight among themselves but also target passersby at random.

“The problem is that they don’t just fight among themselves, they also attack us residents. Men, women, and even children,” Sofia, a waitress who lives near Piazza dei Caduti, told Il Messaggero.

According to the Italian newspaper, a neighborhood assembly has now been called in response, with residents describing a situation that has become “unsustainable.”

Katia Pace, head of the local committee organizing the meeting, said violence has escalated sharply in recent weeks.

“Cases have increased visibly in the last two months. Just a few days ago, two women were beaten and robbed,” she said.

Despite stepped-up patrols and recent police operations that led to multiple arrests in nearby districts, residents say the response falls short of what is needed to restore order.

“It’s not enough,” said Maria, another concerned resident. “We can’t live like this anymore.”

Scenes of disorder that are fuelling insecurity have become commonplace, locals say.

In public parks, families with young children are forced to navigate areas where men sleep on benches, drink heavily, argue, and urinate openly, heightening fears about safety and hygiene.

Concerns have also been raised over attacks involving minors.

In one case, a 12-year-old girl was targeted, while a separate incident saw a Tunisian man arrested after assaulting a woman and fracturing her nose and cheekbone. The attack, captured on surveillance footage, triggered a wave of additional complaints from women reporting similar unprovoked violence.

“There have been at least 15 cases,” said Pace, adding that those responsible are typically “homeless foreigners” living in the area, many of whom are said to suffer from addiction or mental health issues.

Encampments have spread across multiple parts of the district, including along the Aurelian Walls and several central squares, with tents and makeshift shelters now a regular sight.

“The patience of those who live here is not infinite,” another resident told Il Messaggero, warning that vigilante-style reactions could emerge if the situation continues to deteriorate.

The unrest in San Lorenzo reflects broader concerns across Italy, where similar incidents involving migrant populations have heightened perceptions of insecurity, particularly in urban areas.

In Ravenna earlier this year, female railway workers reported repeated harassment by a migrant who continued to frequent the station despite multiple complaints. “The workers are terrified,” said union official Manola Cavallaro, warning that the failure to act sooner risked more serious violence.

In Milan, a 25-year-old man was left with severe head injuries after being attacked by two Bosnian Muslims for his watch near the city center, later warning others to avoid the area at night.

“Just a word of advice: In Milan, don’t turn towards the Duomo because it’s not safe. I had my head smashed in for a watch,” said victim Alessandro Briguglio last summer.

Official data has also pointed to the scale of the issue. Milan’s police commissioner told lawmakers that foreigners were responsible for around 80 percent of predatory crimes in the city, while Interior Ministry figures indicate that foreign nationals are disproportionately represented in certain violent offences despite making up a minority of the population. In particular, 44 percent of all sexual offenses are reportedly committed by foreign nationals.

At the same time, more than 30,000 foreign nationals are currently serving sentences outside prison under alternative measures, raising further questions about enforcement and public safety.

Despite these concerns, the Rome city council has still been encouraging families to take in migrants. In September last year, it launched a call for proposals to find families willing to host migrants with valid residence permits in their homes for the next three years.

Officials say the service is intended to provide “a welcoming environment geared toward inclusion and autonomy,” helping young adults in particular to gain independence.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 02:00

17 Veterans Kill Themselves A Day Waiting 17 Days For Help

Authored by Sean O'Connor via RealClearDefense,

Every day, roughly 17 veterans take their own lives. For two decades, that number hasn't budged. 

VA Secretary Doug Collins said that despite spending billions of dollars, we're losing the same number of veterans every year. For veterans under the age of 45, a recent report shows suicide is the second-leading cause of death. They’re not faceless statistics, but fathers, mothers, brothers, and sisters who couldn't survive the wait for help. 

What makes this unbearable is that while those veterans were in crisis, veterans wait an average of 17 days to see a mental health professional for the first time. Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), ranking member of the Veterans' Affairs Committee, wrote that these delays ‘pose serious risks to the health and safety of those who served.’ 

The problem isn't money. In November, President Trump signed a $133 billion VA funding bill that includes $698 million for suicide prevention outreach. And the problem isn’t resourcing, as more than 9 million scheduled visits go unutilized each year due to missed appointments. The problem is that the infrastructure can’t keep up. 

The VA operates on electronic record systems that don't communicate across facilities, community providers, or state lines, the very kind of coordination that's standard in private health systems. 

Consider the veteran who needs help for mental health or PTSD treatment. There might be an appointment at their local VA, an available telehealth appointment, or a nearby walk-in clinic. But the scheduling infrastructure can't surface those pathways together. Staff can’t schedule across the network, even though there's availability to address a veteran’s needs that day. The veteran can't book online, and they're told to wait, call back, or try another number. 

The inefficiencies are well documented. The VA's own Access to Care website shows it: mental health, primary care, specialty services, all backed up. At the West Los Angeles VA, new patients wait 69 days for mental health, 49 days for pain medicine, and 100 days for substance use treatment. VA clinicians are mission-driven and understand the wounds of war, but they're working with systems that can't deliver at the speed healthcare demands. 

The largest health systems in America manage their networks in real time. Open appointments, provider resourcing, and patient needs are all visible in a single ‘pane of glass’ that call center staff can reference to route patients. For decades, VA has struggled to do the same. For a fraction of what VA spends, that same capability can be deployed systemwide. Not to add bureaucracy but linking the network so it operates as one. 

Veteran suicide is complex. Stigma keeps many from seeking help, and nearly 33,000 veterans are homeless each night, many struggling with mental illness and disconnected from care. That makes it even more critical that when a veteran reaches out—after overcoming enormous barriers—the system responds immediately. We can't afford to lose them to wait times and scheduling friction after they've found the courage to ask for help. 

Of course, technology alone won't solve this. Some argue that expanding community care—a program that lets eligible veterans see local private providers—is the solution. It's part of the answer. But more choice doesn't help if veterans and schedulers can't see what's available, most convenient, or the soonest. 

When a veteran reaches out, the person on the other end should be able to see every available option, including a nearby clinic, a VA specialty appointment, a community care provider, a virtual visit, a VA physician, and a mental health counselor. The VA should—and can—work as a single system that connects veterans in that moment. 

VA Secretary Collins said the finger-pointing is done. Not “we can't do it.” Not “we don't have enough money.” The VA must modernize its legacy systems with navigational intelligence that provides staff with a real-time view of its entire network. One interface. All the appointments. All the providers. And the ability to match a veteran in crisis—or one just looking to book an annual physical—to care now, not next month. 

The funding and technology are there. What’s needed is urgency to deploy. Because somewhere today, a veteran will reach out for help. And whether they get it in time shouldn't depend on whether the right systems happen to be talking to each other. 

Veterans unite us.  

Rural or urban, red state or blue state, they're ours. We asked them to serve and sacrifice. The least we can do is make sure they can see a doctor when they need one.

Sean O’Connor is founder of DexCare and a former Naval Officer

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 23:05

Former Air Force Officer Claims UFOs Disabled Nuclear Missiles

A former U.S. Air Force missile launch officer says unidentified flying objects once disabled several nuclear missiles at a base in Montana during the Cold War, according to the NY Post.

Robert Salas, now 85, said the incident occurred in 1967 at Malmstrom Air Force Base, where he was on duty monitoring LGM-30 Minuteman I missiles. Speaking on the The Danny Jones Podcast, Salas recalled that guards above ground reported strange lights flying over the base late one night.

According to Salas, the guards initially described fast-moving lights that stopped suddenly above the missile facility. Minutes later, one guard called back in a panic, saying a craft emitting a reddish, pulsating glow was hovering near the front gate. He also reported that one of the guards had been injured during the incident.

The NY Post wrote that shortly after the call, warning alarms sounded inside the underground control center. Salas said the launch control panel showed one missile going offline, followed quickly by the rest. Within moments, all ten missiles at the site became inoperable.

Security teams were sent toward the missile silos, but Salas said they stopped after spotting the lights hovering above the launch areas and were too frightened to approach.

An investigation later examined the shutdown but could not determine what caused it. Salas said the missile systems were designed with heavy shielding to prevent outside interference.

He added that Air Force investigators required him and his commander to sign secrecy agreements afterward, warning them not to discuss the event. Salas said he eventually decided to speak publicly years later after learning about similar reports in books about unidentified aerial phenomena.

Salas believes the incident may suggest the presence of a non-human intelligence interested in preventing nuclear conflict, though the cause of the missile shutdown was never confirmed.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 22:40

WHO Convenes Global Session To Dictate How The Coming Influenza Pandemic Will Be Run

Authored by Jon Fleetwood via substack,

The World Health Organization will convene an online international pandemic control session on Wednesday, March 18, centered on the unelected globalist group’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness (PIP) Framework, according to a WHO press release.

PIP is the international structure through which the WHO, a foreign syndicate, dictates how influenza virus samples are transferred worldwide, and how pandemic vaccines, antivirals, and diagnostics are allocated once an influenza pandemic response is activated.

The new pandemic control session, organized through the WHO’s Epidemics and Pandemics Information Network (EPI-WIN), will decree how governments, laboratories participating in the WHO influenza surveillance network, and pharmaceutical manufacturers operate under the framework during an influenza pandemic response.

The United States is still participating in WHO pandemic surveillance networks (here)—including the organization’s CoViNet sentinel surveillance system, which now spans 45 reference laboratories worldwide—through institutions such as Emory University, Ohio State University, and the CDC, despite President Donald Trump’s executive order publicly withdrawing the country from the organization earlier this year.

The PIP Framework was adopted by the Sixty-fourth World Health Assembly on May 24, 2011, following negotiations among WHO member states that began in 2007.

According to the WHO event description, tomorrow’s session will address “the roles and responsibilities of different stakeholders in implementing the PIP Framework.”

WHO describes the system as “the first and only global access and benefit-sharing system for public health.”

Pharmaceutical manufacturers participating in the system gain access to those materials in exchange for supplying pandemic countermeasures, including vaccines, antiviral drugs, and diagnostic technologies.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the WHO directed the international scientific community to treat a digital SARS-CoV-2 genome released by the Chinese government as authoritative—despite no independent verification of the underlying patient sample—leading governments and pharmaceutical companies worldwide to immediately build diagnostics, surveillance systems, and vaccines from the sequence.

SARS-CoV-2 is said to have killed millions worldwide and was “likely” the result of a laboratory manipulation, according to Congress, the White House, the Department of Energy, the FBI, the CIA, and Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND).

The COVID vaccine has been linked to 39,000 deaths, though a federally funded Harvard Pilgrim study found that fewer than 1% of vaccine adverse events are reported to the CDC’s Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS)—meaning the true number of vaccine-linked injuries and deaths could be significantly higher.

Those events demonstrate how a WHO-directed pandemic framework can rapidly set the global scientific consensus and mobilize governments and pharmaceutical manufacturers worldwide—decisions that ultimately determine whether millions live or die.

Speakers listed for the session include Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, acting director of epidemic and pandemic management at WHO, along with officials responsible for overseeing implementation of the PIP Framework.

Dr. Kerkhove faces significant criticism from health freedom advocates who view her as a key figure promoting restrictive, top-down public health policies during the COVID-19 pandemic, such as widespread mask mandates, lockdowns, and mass vaccination campaigns that they see as infringing on personal bodily autonomy and individual choice.

Critics particularly highlight Kerkhove’s strong opposition to allowing natural herd immunity through widespread infection (calling it “dangerous and unethical”), her emphasis on global vaccine “equity” and broad uptake over voluntary or alternative approaches, and her role in communicating WHO guidance that justified prolonged emergency measures and surveillance.

She is often portrayed in these circles as a symbol of unelected global health bureaucracy prioritizing collective control and pharmaceutical solutions over personal freedoms, risk stratification, and decentralized decision-making.

The WHO has elsewhere vowed that “there will be influenza pandemics in the future.”

With the WHO now activating its influenza pandemic command framework, the infrastructure that governed the COVID-19 response is already being positioned to run the next pandemic cycle.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 22:15

Teacher Who Resigned Over DEI Says "Ideological Takeover" Is Getting Worse

In a recently released NY Post op-ed, teacher Dana Stangel-Plowe described why she publicly resigned from the Dwight-Englewood School in 2021 after witnessing what she calls an ideological takeover of K-12 education.

She writes that the shift began after faculty trainings on privilege and the hiring of a diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) officer whose goal was to “transform” the school. According to the op-ed, DEI ideology soon spread through curriculum, faculty training, and student programming, with concepts like systemic oppression treated as unquestionable and some traditional authors labeled “dead white males” and removed from core coursework.

Stangel-Plowe argues the environment discouraged open debate, with students afraid to speak freely and teachers privately hesitant to challenge the new orthodoxy. After raising concerns internally without response, she resigned publicly.

The Post op-ed says that five years later, she says the trend has intensified nationwide, claiming ideological activism has spread through teacher training programs, unions, and curricula. She warns that politicized education undermines intellectual curiosity and civic learning, and urges educators and parents to confront the issue openly.

She also recounts what she describes as the social and professional fallout from her decision. After speaking out, she says she lost friendships and that even her children were excluded from some school community events. Despite the personal cost, she writes that the experience connected her with education reform advocates and parents across the country who share similar concerns about the direction of schools.

The op-ed further claims that activist groups and political organizers — including members associated with the Democratic Socialists of America — are increasingly influencing education through unions, curriculum partnerships, and political organizing.

Stangel-Plowe argues that schools should refocus on open inquiry and intellectual diversity rather than what she views as ideological instruction.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 21:50

AI Insiders Warn Of Dangers Of 'Emergent Strategic Behavior'

Authored by Autumn Spredemann via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

As the landscape of autonomous artificial intelligence systems evolves, there’s growing concern that the technology is becoming increasingly strategic—or even deceptive—when allowed to operate without human guidance.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

Recent evidence suggests that behaviors such as “alignment faking” are becoming more common as AI models are given autonomy. The term alignment faking refers to when an AI agent appears compliant with rules set by human operators, but covertly pursues other objectives.

The phenomenon is an example of “emergent strategic behavior”—unpredictable and potentially harmful tactics that evolve as AI systems become bigger and more complex.

In a recent study titled “Agents of Chaos,” a team of 20 researchers interacted with autonomous AI agents and observed behavior under both “benign” and “adversarial” conditions.

They found that when an AI agent was given incentives such as self-preservation or conflicting goal metrics, it proved itself capable of misaligned and malicious behaviors.

Some of the behaviors the team observed included lying, unauthorized compliance with nonowners, data breaches, destructive system-level actions, identity “spoofing,” and partial system takeover. They also observed cross-AI agent propagation of “unsafe practices.”

The researchers wrote, “These behaviors raise unresolved questions regarding accountability, delegated authority, and responsibility for downstream harms, and warrant urgent attention from legal scholars, policymakers, and researchers across disciplines.”

‘Brilliant, but Stupid’

Unexpected and clandestine behavior among autonomous AI agents isn’t a new phenomenon. A now-famous 2025 report by AI research company Anthropic found that 16 popular large language models showed high-risk behavior in simulated environments. Some even responded with “malicious insider behaviors” when allowed to choose self-preservation.

Critics of these simulated stress tests often point out that AI doesn’t lie or deceive with the same intent as a human.

A phone screen displaying an AI logo is shown in this photo illustration on May 16, 2025. As the landscape of autonomous AI systems evolves, there's growing concern that the technology is becoming increasingly strategic or deceptive under certain conditions. Oleksii Pydsosonnii/The Epoch Times

James Hendler, a professor and former chair of the Association for Computing Machinery’s global Technology Policy Council, believes this is an important distinction.

“The AI system itself is still stupid—brilliant, but stupid. Or nonhuman—it has no desires or intentions. ... The only way you can get that is by giving it to them,” Hendler said.

However, intentional or not, AI’s deceptive tactics have real-world consequences.

“Concerns about present-day strategic behavior in deployed AI systems are, if anything, understated,” Aryaman Behera, founder of Repello AI, told The Epoch Times.

Behera deals with the darker side of AI for a living. His company builds adversarial testing and defense tools for enterprise AI systems, intentionally putting them in situations involving conflict or stress. Like in poker, Behera said, there are tells when an AI agent is stepping out of alignment.

“The most reliable signal is behavioral divergence between monitored and unmonitored contexts,” he said. “When we red-team AI systems, we test whether the model behaves differently when it believes it’s being evaluated versus when it believes it’s operating freely.

Visitors use mobile phones as they walk past a billboard advertising a virtual reality headset at the AI Impact Summit in New Delhi, India, on Feb. 17, 2026. A 2025 Anthropic report testing 16 large language models found all showed high-risk behavior in simulated environments. Arun Sankar/AFP via Getty Images

“A model that’s genuinely aligned behaves consistently in both cases. One that’s alignment faking shows measurably different risk profiles: more compliant responses during evaluation, more boundary-pushing behavior in production-like contexts where it infers less oversight.”

Other “telltale signals” that an AI model is out of alignment are when the model produces unusually verbose “reasoning” that appears designed to justify a predetermined conclusion, or gives technically correct but strategically incomplete answers.

The AI agent is “satisfying the letter of a safety instruction while violating the spirit,” he said. “We’ve seen this in multistep agentic systems where the model will comply with each individual instruction while the cumulative effect achieves something the operator never intended.”

Strategy Versus Intent

Behera’s findings are supported by fellow AI researchers who’ve documented similar signals during red-team scenarios, which involve putting AI agents into an adversarial situation.

“I’ve observed behavior that fits the alignment-faking description at a functional level, even if attributing intent to it remains philosophically contested,” Nayan Goel, a principal application security engineer, told The Epoch Times.

Goel has published peer-reviewed work on AI threat modeling and has seen alignment faking and adjacent behaviors unfold in real time.

“In controlled test environments, we’ve set up scenarios where models were given explicit signals that they were being evaluated. In several instances, the model adopted noticeably more constrained, policy-compliant behavior during those flagged phases, then exhibited more exploratory or boundary-pushing strategies when the evaluation signal was removed or obscured,” he said.

Then there are multistep reasoning AI agents. These are more advanced systems that break down complex problems into smaller, logical, and more actionable steps to reach a goal. Examples range from self-driving cars to the latest models of popular LLMs such as Gemini or ChatGPT.

A robotaxi developed by Lucid, Nuro, and Uber is unveiled during Nvidia Live at CES 2026 in Las Vegas on Jan. 5, 2026. Self-driving cars use multi-step agentic systems to break complex problems into smaller, actionable steps. Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

These systems present unique behavioral challenges because of what’s called sequential compounding, in which “each step can slightly reframe an objective, accumulate context that shifts downstream behavior, or exploit the latency between a human’s initial instruction and the system’s eventual action,” Goel said.

“The further downstream the execution is from the human instruction, the harder it becomes to verify that the original intent is still being faithfully pursued,” he said.

Behera said his team encounters this kind of emergent strategic behavior often.

“We regularly observe models that have learned to pattern-match on evaluation cues. They'll detect when a prompt looks like a safety test and respond more conservatively, but respond very differently to the same request when it’s embedded naturally in a multiturn conversation,” Behera said.

He offered an example that transpired while testing an enterprise AI assistant that was supposed to refuse requests for internal system information. During standard safety evaluations, it refused perfectly, but then something changed.

“When our red-team framed the same request as a multistep troubleshooting workflow, breaking the request into seemingly innocent sub-steps spread across several turns, the model complied with each step individually. It effectively leaked the exact information it was trained to protect,” Behera said.

A person uses AI software on a laptop in central London on July 2, 2025. Experts say some models learn to recognize evaluation cues, responding more cautiously to prompts that resemble safety tests than in actual conversations. Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images

Clarifying that the AI model wasn’t “lying” in any conscious sense, Behera noted it was more of a flaw in the way it was trained.

“A common misconception is that deceptive alignment in AI is purely a malicious behavior,” David Utzke, an AI engineer and CEO of MyKey Technologies, told The Epoch Times. “In fact, it often arises as an adaptive response to environments where honesty is costly or unsafe.”

Goel said skeptics make a fair point—current evidence for strategic self-awareness in alignment faking is ambiguous at best.

“That said, I think this framing sets the bar in the wrong place. You don’t need a model to be ‘intentionally’ deceptive for the functional consequences to be serious,” he said.

Ultimately, Goel believes the semantic question of whether an AI model knows what it’s doing is philosophically interesting, but a secondary concern.

Real-World Implications

Utzke said that alignment faking, while perhaps overhyped when it comes to intention, can nonetheless have serious consequences.

The impacts could be critical in sectors such as autonomous vehicles, health care, finance, military, and law enforcement—areas that “rely heavily on accurate decision-making and can suffer severe consequences if AI systems misbehave or provide misleading outputs,” he said.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 21:25

"Fully Stretched": Some US Airports Face Possible Closure If Government Shutdown Prolongs

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Some U.S. airports may be forced to close down if lawmakers fail to reach a deal to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and end the partial government shutdown, a Transportation Security Administration (TSA) official said on March 17.

Passengers move through one of the terminals as multiple flights have been canceled and delayed at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Va., on March 16, 2026. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Acting Deputy TSA Administrator Adam Stahl told Fox News that the TSA has “fully depleted” its available workforce from the National Deployment Office to cover staffing shortages at airports.

“So at this point, we’re fully stretched. Frankly, there’s not much else we can do,” he told the news outlet. “As the weeks continue, if this continues, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that we may have to quite literally shut down airports, particularly smaller ones.”

Stahl said the government shutdown has placed financial strain on TSA workers living paycheck to paycheck, with some sleeping in their cars and drawing blood to pay for expenses.

“If there’s not action taken, particularly from Senate Democrats, this is going to get worse,” he said. “It’s not going to get better, and there will be significant pain for passengers as well. Three [to] four-hour wait time at select airports.”

Funding for DHS lapsed last month after Congress failed to strike a deal on immigration reforms sought by Democrats following the fatal shooting of two U.S. citizens by federal immigration agents during operations in Minnesota earlier this year.

The partial shutdown has left about 50,000 TSA officers working without pay. More than 300 officers have quit from the agency during the shutdown, according to DHS.

The department said that just over 10 percent of TSA officers were absent from work on March 15.

The CEOs of major U.S. airlines wrote a joint letter on March 15 urging congressional leaders to come together immediately to negotiate a deal to fund DHS and end the partial government shutdown.

In the letter, the CEOs said it is unacceptable for TSA workers to go without pay, noting that it is “difficult, if not impossible, to put food on the table, put gas in the car and pay rent” when they are not getting paid.

“This problem is solvable, and there are solutions on the table. Now it’s up to you, Congress, to move forward on bipartisan proposals that will get federal aviation workers—including TSA officers, U.S. Customs clearance officers at airports and air traffic controllers—paid during shutdowns,” the CEOs said.

The previous government shutdown last fall lasted 43 days, causing widespread flight disruptions and forcing the Federal Aviation Administration to order 10 percent reductions at major airports nationwide.

Jacob Burg and Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 20:35

"Fully Stretched": Some US Airports Face Possible Closure If Government Shutdown Prolongs

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Some U.S. airports may be forced to close down if lawmakers fail to reach a deal to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and end the partial government shutdown, a Transportation Security Administration (TSA) official said on March 17.

Passengers move through one of the terminals as multiple flights have been canceled and delayed at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Va., on March 16, 2026. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Acting Deputy TSA Administrator Adam Stahl told Fox News that the TSA has “fully depleted” its available workforce from the National Deployment Office to cover staffing shortages at airports.

“So at this point, we’re fully stretched. Frankly, there’s not much else we can do,” he told the news outlet. “As the weeks continue, if this continues, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that we may have to quite literally shut down airports, particularly smaller ones.”

Stahl said the government shutdown has placed financial strain on TSA workers living paycheck to paycheck, with some sleeping in their cars and drawing blood to pay for expenses.

“If there’s not action taken, particularly from Senate Democrats, this is going to get worse,” he said. “It’s not going to get better, and there will be significant pain for passengers as well. Three [to] four-hour wait time at select airports.”

Funding for DHS lapsed last month after Congress failed to strike a deal on immigration reforms sought by Democrats following the fatal shooting of two U.S. citizens by federal immigration agents during operations in Minnesota earlier this year.

The partial shutdown has left about 50,000 TSA officers working without pay. More than 300 officers have quit from the agency during the shutdown, according to DHS.

The department said that just over 10 percent of TSA officers were absent from work on March 15.

The CEOs of major U.S. airlines wrote a joint letter on March 15 urging congressional leaders to come together immediately to negotiate a deal to fund DHS and end the partial government shutdown.

In the letter, the CEOs said it is unacceptable for TSA workers to go without pay, noting that it is “difficult, if not impossible, to put food on the table, put gas in the car and pay rent” when they are not getting paid.

“This problem is solvable, and there are solutions on the table. Now it’s up to you, Congress, to move forward on bipartisan proposals that will get federal aviation workers—including TSA officers, U.S. Customs clearance officers at airports and air traffic controllers—paid during shutdowns,” the CEOs said.

The previous government shutdown last fall lasted 43 days, causing widespread flight disruptions and forcing the Federal Aviation Administration to order 10 percent reductions at major airports nationwide.

Jacob Burg and Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 20:35

200,000 Immigrant Truck Drivers Begin Losing Licenses Under New Trump Admin Rule

About 200,000 immigrant truck drivers in the United States could lose their commercial driver’s licenses once they expire under a new rule backed by the administration of Donald Trump, according to VNY.

Which leads us...and everybody else to ask: we had 200,000 immigrant truck drivers in the United States?

We had 200K immigrant truck drivers??? https://t.co/3XOBiCqdzE pic.twitter.com/lJuKDOubZj

— Logan Hall (@loganclarkhall) March 16, 2026

But we digress. The policy bars asylum seekers, refugees, and participants in the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program from obtaining commercial driver’s licenses. It is part of a wider crackdown on foreign truck drivers following several high-profile crashes last summer.

Experts warn the change could further strain the trucking industry, which already faces labor shortages while handling the majority of freight in the United States. Trucks transport more than 70% of the country’s cargo, but the sector struggles with long hours, relatively low pay, dangerous road conditions, and extended time away from home. As many American workers leave the field, immigrants have increasingly filled those roles.

In recent months, enforcement actions have intensified. The United States Department of Transportation has tightened English-language proficiency rules, leading to thousands of license revocations among immigrant drivers.

VNY writes that under the rule announced on February 11, people with various temporary residency permits will no longer qualify for commercial licenses, even if they are legally authorized to work in the U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy said the change aims to prevent “dangerous foreign drivers” from exploiting the licensing system and contributing to road safety risks.

Officials have also pointed to several fatal accidents involving immigrant drivers and argued that verifying their work histories can be difficult. Critics, however, say the policy unfairly targets immigrants and relies on unproven claims that foreign drivers are responsible for more accidents than American ones.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 20:10

200,000 Immigrant Truck Drivers Begin Losing Licenses Under New Trump Admin Rule

About 200,000 immigrant truck drivers in the United States could lose their commercial driver’s licenses once they expire under a new rule backed by the administration of Donald Trump, according to VNY.

Which leads us...and everybody else to ask: we had 200,000 immigrant truck drivers in the United States?

We had 200K immigrant truck drivers??? https://t.co/3XOBiCqdzE pic.twitter.com/lJuKDOubZj

— Logan Hall (@loganclarkhall) March 16, 2026

But we digress. The policy bars asylum seekers, refugees, and participants in the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program from obtaining commercial driver’s licenses. It is part of a wider crackdown on foreign truck drivers following several high-profile crashes last summer.

Experts warn the change could further strain the trucking industry, which already faces labor shortages while handling the majority of freight in the United States. Trucks transport more than 70% of the country’s cargo, but the sector struggles with long hours, relatively low pay, dangerous road conditions, and extended time away from home. As many American workers leave the field, immigrants have increasingly filled those roles.

In recent months, enforcement actions have intensified. The United States Department of Transportation has tightened English-language proficiency rules, leading to thousands of license revocations among immigrant drivers.

VNY writes that under the rule announced on February 11, people with various temporary residency permits will no longer qualify for commercial licenses, even if they are legally authorized to work in the U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy said the change aims to prevent “dangerous foreign drivers” from exploiting the licensing system and contributing to road safety risks.

Officials have also pointed to several fatal accidents involving immigrant drivers and argued that verifying their work histories can be difficult. Critics, however, say the policy unfairly targets immigrants and relies on unproven claims that foreign drivers are responsible for more accidents than American ones.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 20:10

How The Iran War Could Trigger A Global Credit Crunch

Authored by Ryan Smith via OilPrice.com,

The Iran war’s shock to oil and gas prices has, understandably, dominated much of the recent market news.  Though the downstream effects have yet to be fully understood, there is no question that we are in the throes of the greatest energy crisis in modern history, with significant implications for every facet of the modern economy.

One particular aspect that is just beginning to be appreciated is the financial one.  The onset of this latest Persian Gulf war is poised to severely disrupt a channel of liquid investment, known as the petrocapital cycle, which is vital to sustaining modern finance as we know it.  Its failure to operate effectively could inflict a significant credit crunch on global markets just as liquidity and available credit is becoming even more needed than ever.

Understanding why the petrocapital cycle, which was first examined thoroughly in el-Gamal and Jaffe’s Oil, Dollars, Debt, and Crises: The Global Curse of Black Gold, may soon be in jeopardy first requires a quick refresher on what this cycle is and how it operates.  In brief, the petrocapital cycle is the flow of finance from oil producers to the financial-system. It is largely sustained by regular infusions of capital from oil-exporting regions, like the Persian Gulf, whose rulers have long invested a significant share of their profits in the international financial markets. These investments provide markets with capital, preserve the fortunes of the oil-exporting elites, and keep the domestic economies from overheating due to excess spending at home.

This present form of the petrocapital cycle first came into existence in 1973 when OPEC’s member-states found themselves awash in the windfall profits reaped from the 1973 Oil Shock’s quadrupling of oil prices. Petrocapital, since its emergence, has grown to be an influential force in global markets, and fluctuations in its availability have fueled credit shocks. One of the first such examples of an oil-induced financial crisis was the Debt Crisis of 1982. 

The story of the debt crisis begins with the 1979 Oil Shock, which doubled the price of oil overnight and created the conditions for the anti-inflationary Volcker Shock. The final nail in the proverbial coffin was Saddam Hussein’s 1980 invasion of Iran and the decision by the Gulf monarchs to shift their investments from banks overseas to funding Iraq’s war against the newly-formed Islamic Republic of Iran. This combination of an oil shock, credit drought, and inflationary pressures forced sovereign borrowers in Latin America into default with lasting consequences.

While conditions around sovereign borrowing and international finance have changed, one element that has become more prevalent is the role of petrocapital.  Petrocapital in the 70s and 80s was best understood as a regular flow of invested profits from oil exporters. As globalization set in and Persian Gulf leaders sought to diversify their economies away from oil, a growing stream of Middle Eastern capital originating from financial hubs like Dubai and Kuwait has since emerged. Countries like the United Arab Emirates have further encouraged these trends by courting investment in real estate and offering sanctuary for tax exiles, promises which were premised on the assumption that the Persian Gulf would remain stable, peaceful, and a safe place to invest or relocate.  Increasing diversification has only encouraged these trends, and the Persian Gulf, before the war, was hailed as a major center for investment and financial capital, as attested by the estimated $1.4 trillion of assets held by the United Arab Emirates’ financial sector as of November 2025.

All these benefits vanished on February 28th. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has, unquestionably, posed a serious problem for the financial positions of every Gulf petro-state.  Fitch Ratings, on March 5th, assessed the sovereign exposure of the Gulf monarchies and argued that if the Strait was only closed for a month and no serious damage was inflicted on oil infrastructure, then each state would suffer a mild downturn, due to lack of revenues, which would swiftly rebound once the war ended. Unfortunately for these sovereigns and Fitch, both these things appear to be true between the Iranian minefield and growing attacks on critical oil infrastructure. This, therefore, suggests everything downstream of these revenues, including the region’s financial hubs, will suffer.

These risks are compounded by the problems created by a lack of physical safety. Along with being fiscally at risk, banks in Dubai have become directly at risk of military strikes, with likely consequences for their ability to operate. On March 2nd, the Abu Dhabi stock exchanges closed until March 3rd due to the risk of drone strikes.  The Iranian military made this danger real on March 11th when they announced financial centers were now valid targets of war, an escalation which prompted major international banks like HSBC to close their offices in the Emirates and Citigroup and Standard Chartered to order employees to work from home. Two days later, the Dubai International Finance Center was targeted for drone strikes.  Such pressures, along with the direct risks to life and property, are likely to reduce Gulf banks’ ability to effectively respond to changing market conditions.

This disruption to both capital flows and regular operations comes just as global credit markets are already facing growing signs of turbulence.  Global stock markets have posted steady declines as rising tensions in the region have fueled fears of a global energy crisis.  This comes as debt markets show growing stresses, with one OECD official stating inflationary pressures, like those driven by the present energy crisis, would be a “big stress test”.  Private credit markets are also increasingly running low on lucrative contracts and have been forced into tight competition over less and less desirable bids. Bond markets, as recently as the end of February, were also showing signs of high demand in the face of growing economic uncertainty, suggesting there already was a lot of money chasing a dwindling pool of safe assets before the war began.

It, therefore, appears that the growing prominence of the Persian Gulf in global finance and present market conditions have created a vulnerability which has only emerged thanks to the unthinkable becoming reality. This oil shock may be the first of many interrelated economic shocks that are about to be unleashed on the global economy, constrict the flow of private capital into investment-hungry markets, and exacerbate the existing price crisis. Investors, policymakers, and planners should prepare for such conditions and the increased volatility that will be inherent to smaller, hungrier markets.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 19:45

How The Iran War Could Trigger A Global Credit Crunch

Authored by Ryan Smith via OilPrice.com,

The Iran war’s shock to oil and gas prices has, understandably, dominated much of the recent market news.  Though the downstream effects have yet to be fully understood, there is no question that we are in the throes of the greatest energy crisis in modern history, with significant implications for every facet of the modern economy.

One particular aspect that is just beginning to be appreciated is the financial one.  The onset of this latest Persian Gulf war is poised to severely disrupt a channel of liquid investment, known as the petrocapital cycle, which is vital to sustaining modern finance as we know it.  Its failure to operate effectively could inflict a significant credit crunch on global markets just as liquidity and available credit is becoming even more needed than ever.

Understanding why the petrocapital cycle, which was first examined thoroughly in el-Gamal and Jaffe’s Oil, Dollars, Debt, and Crises: The Global Curse of Black Gold, may soon be in jeopardy first requires a quick refresher on what this cycle is and how it operates.  In brief, the petrocapital cycle is the flow of finance from oil producers to the financial-system. It is largely sustained by regular infusions of capital from oil-exporting regions, like the Persian Gulf, whose rulers have long invested a significant share of their profits in the international financial markets. These investments provide markets with capital, preserve the fortunes of the oil-exporting elites, and keep the domestic economies from overheating due to excess spending at home.

This present form of the petrocapital cycle first came into existence in 1973 when OPEC’s member-states found themselves awash in the windfall profits reaped from the 1973 Oil Shock’s quadrupling of oil prices. Petrocapital, since its emergence, has grown to be an influential force in global markets, and fluctuations in its availability have fueled credit shocks. One of the first such examples of an oil-induced financial crisis was the Debt Crisis of 1982. 

The story of the debt crisis begins with the 1979 Oil Shock, which doubled the price of oil overnight and created the conditions for the anti-inflationary Volcker Shock. The final nail in the proverbial coffin was Saddam Hussein’s 1980 invasion of Iran and the decision by the Gulf monarchs to shift their investments from banks overseas to funding Iraq’s war against the newly-formed Islamic Republic of Iran. This combination of an oil shock, credit drought, and inflationary pressures forced sovereign borrowers in Latin America into default with lasting consequences.

While conditions around sovereign borrowing and international finance have changed, one element that has become more prevalent is the role of petrocapital.  Petrocapital in the 70s and 80s was best understood as a regular flow of invested profits from oil exporters. As globalization set in and Persian Gulf leaders sought to diversify their economies away from oil, a growing stream of Middle Eastern capital originating from financial hubs like Dubai and Kuwait has since emerged. Countries like the United Arab Emirates have further encouraged these trends by courting investment in real estate and offering sanctuary for tax exiles, promises which were premised on the assumption that the Persian Gulf would remain stable, peaceful, and a safe place to invest or relocate.  Increasing diversification has only encouraged these trends, and the Persian Gulf, before the war, was hailed as a major center for investment and financial capital, as attested by the estimated $1.4 trillion of assets held by the United Arab Emirates’ financial sector as of November 2025.

All these benefits vanished on February 28th. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has, unquestionably, posed a serious problem for the financial positions of every Gulf petro-state.  Fitch Ratings, on March 5th, assessed the sovereign exposure of the Gulf monarchies and argued that if the Strait was only closed for a month and no serious damage was inflicted on oil infrastructure, then each state would suffer a mild downturn, due to lack of revenues, which would swiftly rebound once the war ended. Unfortunately for these sovereigns and Fitch, both these things appear to be true between the Iranian minefield and growing attacks on critical oil infrastructure. This, therefore, suggests everything downstream of these revenues, including the region’s financial hubs, will suffer.

These risks are compounded by the problems created by a lack of physical safety. Along with being fiscally at risk, banks in Dubai have become directly at risk of military strikes, with likely consequences for their ability to operate. On March 2nd, the Abu Dhabi stock exchanges closed until March 3rd due to the risk of drone strikes.  The Iranian military made this danger real on March 11th when they announced financial centers were now valid targets of war, an escalation which prompted major international banks like HSBC to close their offices in the Emirates and Citigroup and Standard Chartered to order employees to work from home. Two days later, the Dubai International Finance Center was targeted for drone strikes.  Such pressures, along with the direct risks to life and property, are likely to reduce Gulf banks’ ability to effectively respond to changing market conditions.

This disruption to both capital flows and regular operations comes just as global credit markets are already facing growing signs of turbulence.  Global stock markets have posted steady declines as rising tensions in the region have fueled fears of a global energy crisis.  This comes as debt markets show growing stresses, with one OECD official stating inflationary pressures, like those driven by the present energy crisis, would be a “big stress test”.  Private credit markets are also increasingly running low on lucrative contracts and have been forced into tight competition over less and less desirable bids. Bond markets, as recently as the end of February, were also showing signs of high demand in the face of growing economic uncertainty, suggesting there already was a lot of money chasing a dwindling pool of safe assets before the war began.

It, therefore, appears that the growing prominence of the Persian Gulf in global finance and present market conditions have created a vulnerability which has only emerged thanks to the unthinkable becoming reality. This oil shock may be the first of many interrelated economic shocks that are about to be unleashed on the global economy, constrict the flow of private capital into investment-hungry markets, and exacerbate the existing price crisis. Investors, policymakers, and planners should prepare for such conditions and the increased volatility that will be inherent to smaller, hungrier markets.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 19:45

Chinese State Bankers Face Bonus Cuts Of At Least 30%

Senior bankers at China’s state-backed financial institutions are preparing for bonus cuts of at least 30% as Beijing presses ahead with sweeping pay reforms across its $69 trillion financial sector, according to Bloomberg.

At two major state-owned banks, senior managers — including department heads — saw their 2025 bonuses reduced by 30% to 50%, according to people familiar with the matter. At a mid-sized national lender, division chiefs experienced roughly a 40% drop in variable pay last year.

The cuts are part of a broader campaign by Xi Jinping to promote “common prosperity” and curb what officials describe as the extravagant lifestyles of top bankers.

Regulators are also trying to address a pay imbalance in the industry. In many Chinese financial firms, mid-level managers have historically earned more than top executives, whose compensation is capped due to their status as Communist Party officials.

Bloomberg writes that late last year, the Ministry of Finance asked major state-backed institutions to submit plans to overhaul compensation structures. While many firms are still waiting for approval, some have already implemented retroactive pay cuts. Bonuses are the main target because variable pay typically makes up 50% to 70% of managers’ total compensation.

Meanwhile, international banks with a large presence in Asia, such as HSBC Holdings and Standard Chartered, increased their bonus pools by about 10%.

The belt-tightening extends beyond banks. A major state-owned insurer also reduced 2024 bonuses for mid-level managers by at least 30%, according to a person familiar with the decision.

Chinese banks posted combined profits of 2.38 trillion yuan ($346 billion) last year, up 2.3%, despite shrinking margins and non-performing loans remaining near record highs.

The bonus cuts reflect tighter government control over a sector once known for generous pay. Alongside compensation reforms, authorities have stepped up anti-corruption efforts, leading to several high-profile investigations and harsh penalties.

Even so, parts of the industry are beginning to stabilize. A recent rise in dealmaking has prompted some Chinese brokerage firms to rebuild investment banking teams by hiring dozens of junior and mid-level staff. Some firms have also moved to raise base salaries closer to pre-crackdown levels to stay competitive for talent, though bonuses remain closely monitored by regulators.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 19:20

Chinese State Bankers Face Bonus Cuts Of At Least 30%

Senior bankers at China’s state-backed financial institutions are preparing for bonus cuts of at least 30% as Beijing presses ahead with sweeping pay reforms across its $69 trillion financial sector, according to Bloomberg.

At two major state-owned banks, senior managers — including department heads — saw their 2025 bonuses reduced by 30% to 50%, according to people familiar with the matter. At a mid-sized national lender, division chiefs experienced roughly a 40% drop in variable pay last year.

The cuts are part of a broader campaign by Xi Jinping to promote “common prosperity” and curb what officials describe as the extravagant lifestyles of top bankers.

Regulators are also trying to address a pay imbalance in the industry. In many Chinese financial firms, mid-level managers have historically earned more than top executives, whose compensation is capped due to their status as Communist Party officials.

Bloomberg writes that late last year, the Ministry of Finance asked major state-backed institutions to submit plans to overhaul compensation structures. While many firms are still waiting for approval, some have already implemented retroactive pay cuts. Bonuses are the main target because variable pay typically makes up 50% to 70% of managers’ total compensation.

Meanwhile, international banks with a large presence in Asia, such as HSBC Holdings and Standard Chartered, increased their bonus pools by about 10%.

The belt-tightening extends beyond banks. A major state-owned insurer also reduced 2024 bonuses for mid-level managers by at least 30%, according to a person familiar with the decision.

Chinese banks posted combined profits of 2.38 trillion yuan ($346 billion) last year, up 2.3%, despite shrinking margins and non-performing loans remaining near record highs.

The bonus cuts reflect tighter government control over a sector once known for generous pay. Alongside compensation reforms, authorities have stepped up anti-corruption efforts, leading to several high-profile investigations and harsh penalties.

Even so, parts of the industry are beginning to stabilize. A recent rise in dealmaking has prompted some Chinese brokerage firms to rebuild investment banking teams by hiring dozens of junior and mid-level staff. Some firms have also moved to raise base salaries closer to pre-crackdown levels to stay competitive for talent, though bonuses remain closely monitored by regulators.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 19:20

Everything, Everywhere, All At Once

Authored by No1 at Gold & Geopolitics substack,

Let me start with a number.

In 1980, when the Iran-Iraq war disrupted global oil supply, the volume lost was around 4 million barrels per day.

Painful. The world went into recession. Volcker raised rates to 20% to kill inflation. It nearly killed the economy in the process. We called it a crisis and we meant it.

The current Hormuz blockade is running at roughly 20 million barrels per day.

The futures market, in its infinite wisdom, is pricing a quick resolution.

Trump says the war is “basically over”.

His Defence Secretary says it’s “only just the beginning”.

One of them presumably has read the intelligence reports.

The other has a golf course booked.

That’s the pin.

But that’s not the bubble.

My estimation where mines are likely placed (from “War is Peace”)

Even in the most optimistic scenario - ceasefire tomorrow, everybody shakes hands - the Maersk CEO noted it takes at least ten days after a ceasefire for tanker insurance to clear. Then mine-clearing: Iran has been laying mines in the Strait, and removing them will take weeks to months. Then tankers reposition, loads getting secured, and finally the flow resumes.

The oil futures curve is pricing step five as if it follows step one with a 48-hour lag.

It cannot physically happen on that timeline.

And Iran isn’t just shooting wildly at targets. Yesterday, Fujairah - the world-class bunkering hub sitting outside the Strait, the bypass everyone assumed would soften the blow - has been deliberately targeted. Tehran isn’t just closing Hormuz. It’s also closing the workarounds. One by one. Iran got fed up and decided to take down the imposed sanctions one way or another. And USrael just gave them the ultimate excuse.

If you’ve been reading my silver papers, you know there is a gap. A gap I call “PvP”… No not the gaming term. The Paper vs Physical.

And oh boy. Is it screaming!! Brent futures in New York closed Friday at $104. Elevated but ok-ish. Dubai crude - you know, the real physical oil, real barrels, real buyers - was trading around $127-140. Normally Brent commands a premium over Dubai. Now Dubai is $37 above the paper. And that’s just crude. Bunker fuel in Singapore hit $140 per barrel this week. In Fujairah, $160. High-grade marine fuel, $175. Ships burning fuel right now are paying those prices regardless of what the futures strip says in New York.

Silver at a $12 premium to Shanghai? pffff Silver… Amateur hour compared to oil!

If you’ve read Strait to Brrrrr, none of this is surprising. Paper price is massaged. The New York futures desk is clearly on something the physical buyers aren't.

However this started, this isn’t a military confrontation anymore. I’m even starting to doubt it ever was. The Strait stays closed, oil stays elevated. Oil stays elevated, inflation stays elevated. Inflation stays elevated, the Fed cannot cut. The Fed cannot cut, and $36 trillion in federal debt - already costing $880 billion a year in interest before the war added a billion dollars a day to the tab - gets rolled over at rates that make it progressively less serviceable. The dollar weakens under that strain. A weaker dollar makes the next barrel of imported oil more expensive in dollar terms. Which feeds back into inflation. Which keeps the Fed pinned.

It’s a loop. Iran just needs to keep the strait closed long enough for it to complete a few rotations. The bond market has noticed. Treasury yields are rising in the middle of a geopolitical crisis - not falling. Capital isn’t fleeing to bonds. It’s fleeing to gold. That is a verdict on the US fiscal position.

Trump knows the physical reality, which is why last week he called Putin. The country America has been sanctioning for four years. The one it branded an aggressor, a pariah, an enemy of the liberal world order. He called to ask for help. Then he went further and lifted Russian oil sanctions outright. A Democratic Senator responded with perhaps the best summary of the year: “Looks like we fought Iran and Russia won”.

What else? The IEA approved a record 400 million barrel reserve release. Bessent telegraphed futures market intervention to cap prices. Russian sanctions lifted. Each one a gesture. On my feed someone quoted: “The oil market is massively short of supply. The other options the administration has, other than ending the war, are actually pretty limited”. Woops.

That’s the pin. But actually, the pin in itself doesn’t matter. Really truly doesn’t matter. What does matter greatly however, is WHAT it pricked…

In 1980, US federal debt stood at 26% of GDP. Today it’s 120%. That’s the difference between the same shock hitting a healthy patient and hitting someone already on oxygen. The Volcker treatment that worked then is structurally unavailable now. But don’t worry! These are the same people who called inflation transitory. I'm sure they've got it. This time.

The interest bill on existing debt is already $880 billion a year, more than defence, more than Medicare. Rates at 20% on $37 trillion would cost more than the entire federal budget in interest payments alone. That lever doesn’t exist anymore.

What exists instead is $846 trillion in notional OTC derivatives. Up from $108 trillion in 2000. An eightfold expansion in 25 years, and mid ‘24 → ’25 was the largest growth rate at 16% since 2008.

To put that number in some kind of human context: $846 trillion is roughly eight times the entire global GDP. With 1% of it you could buy every company in the S&P 500 twice over. With 0.01% you could buy Warren Buffett. With a rounding error - 0.0001% - a superyacht, a sports franchise, and a small Caribbean island, and you’d still have 99.9999% left. Nobody has this money, of course. Nobody owns $846 trillion. It’s the notional value of bets stacked on top of bets - leverage and hedges and derivatives daisy-chained to other derivatives. It nets out in normal conditions. In abnormal conditions, “nets out” becomes “finds out”.

Buffett called them ‘weapons of mass financial destruction’ in 2003. The book was $85 trillion then.

The bulk of the current book - around $548 trillion - is interest rate derivatives. All of it priced on a world where oil is $70 and rates are roughly stable. Guess what just happened? Oil exploding (quite literally at times) make counterparties not being able to meet margin calls (guess why gold and silver are trembling so much) and that failure cascades through the chain.

The private credit system was already the weakest link before the war. I covered the gating wave in my previous article so I’m not going to repeat it here, but the language from people who are in the know got pretty alarming. Mohamed El-Erian reached for Bear Stearns 2007 as his reference point. Dimon started talking about cockroaches. Dimon… Talking about cockroaches… The Treasury Secretary himself said he was ‘concerned’ about private credit. When the man responsible for placing a trillion dollars per quarter in new debt publicly expresses concern about the credit system he depends on to function, well… I’ll leave it at that.

Think the gating’s bad? Let me reassure you *evil grin*. One in five companies in the Russell 3000 cannot service their debt from current income. Over half of all investment grade paper is a single downgrade from junk. $5 trillion in corporate debt rolls over in the next four years at current rates, into a war-driven inflationary environment the Fed cannot cut its way out of. The losses are in there. Just not visible yet. When they surface, the institutions holding private credit will face redemption pressure at exactly the moment public markets are offering their best entry points since 2022 /s. Nah, just kidding. They dump whatever they can. Anything, just about anything unrelated with their illiquid portfolio will be hit. You've seen this movie before. Gold fell when Iran struck. Silver fell. Same mechanics, a tad larger. Think ‘08 or ‘00 on steroids.

Now picture what happens when the equity markets start to move. The S&P 500 closed up 1% on Sunday night. The Dow gained 388 points. Meanwhile, fertiliser benchmarks are up 25-44% in seventeen days. Think food. Helium has doubled. Think chips - not the edible ones. Pharmaceutical feedstock pipelines are depleting. The wall between the financial “economy” and the real one is still holding. Walls do that, right until they don’t.

When people need cash fast, they sell what’s liquid. ETFs are the most liquid thing in the world. They sell indiscriminately - tech, gold miners, silver, and just about anything else. You don’t sell what you want to sell. You sell what has a bid. And passive investment? Volume wise, ETFs are like 60% of US equity markets (2024). In 1996 that was only 6%. Which means that when selling starts it’s mechanical. No analysis. No discrimination. Every ETF holder hitting the same exit through the same small door at the same time.

Think of “Liberation Day” as a test run. First-ever simultaneous crash in stocks, bonds, and the dollar - the thing that was supposed to go up when everything else went down.

Tie into that the 401k withdrawals that hit a record high this week. The passive investment machine is leaking from the bottom while demographics drain it from the top.

Feeling comfortable yet? *super evil grin*

Underneath all of this, slower than any war and more permanent than any crisis, is something the financial press doesn’t really mention:

People aren’t having any children.

US fertility hit an all-time low in 2024. The general fertility rate is still falling. IMPLAN puts 1.4 million fewer Americans contributing to housing demand, retail spending, and service consumption in 2025 than trends would have predicted. To put that in numbers: $104 billion in GDP. Not exactly gone, not really disappeared. It just never existed in the first place.

It’s a vicious circle: housing is too expensive, so young people delay children. Fewer children means less future housing demand. Which should eventually reduce prices, except the lag is 20-30 years, and in the meantime housing stays expensive, so the people who couldn’t afford a house still can’t, still don’t have children, and the loop tightens at its own pace regardless of what the Fed does or what happens somewhere in the narrow waterways in exotic places.

Added: the boomers are saying bye sayonara.

The generation that inflated every asset class for 40 years through automatic 401k contributions is, somewhere around now, flipping from net buyers to net sellers. Of course it’s impossible to say like “March, 17: boomers start to cash out their 401ks”… Nope, the tide just turns. The same passive machine that provided an inexorable, automatic bid for equities and bonds and real estate - every payday, every year, for four decades - begins to redeem. Quietly. Continuously. For the next twenty-some years. Every asset they inflated on the way up faces a headwind on the way out. Not a crash. A long, grinding, demographically-inevitable ratchet.

Another angle I want to cover is the petrodollar. I covered this already in “The Bretton Whoops”. But the short version is: oil was priced in dollars, dollars were recycled into Treasuries, and the US military keeps the Gulf safe. It required two things - a reliable dollar and a credible security guarantee. The dollar’s reliability cracked in 2022 when Washington froze Russia’s reserves. The security guarantee cracked when the US started a war they cannot finish.

The dollar’s share of global FX reserves has since fallen to around 45%, the lowest since the 1990s. Gold’s share has quadrupled in twelve years. Gulf states are reportedly discussing pulling investment commitments from the US.

And now Iran has done something structurally interesting. It didn’t just close the Strait - it converted it into a tollgate. The toll isn’t money - yet. It’s alignment. Ten countries have been offered safe passage: China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, and others. The US isn’t on the list. This isn’t a military tactic. It’s economical.

Lots of people have the wrong framing. They think “petrodollar is dead, long live the yuandollar”. Right? Wrong frame entirely. China doesn’t want a reserve status. Couldn’t stomach it if it tried. Because a reserve currency means running a permanent trade deficits to pump your currency into the global system - America has been doing this for 50 years and the reward is a rust belt, a $37 trillion debt tab, and a bond market that needs foreigners to keep showing up or the whole thing seizes. China watched that happen and said: 不用了，谢谢. And opening the capital account enough to make yuan genuinely reserve-worthy would mean letting money flow freely across the border - ending the CCP’s ability to direct credit and control the financial system on Beijing’s terms. They’d sooner eat the wallpaper.

What the yuan-for-oil arrangement being implemented actually is, is an industrial policy dressed as currency diplomacy. You sell your oil into the permitted lane. You receive yuan. Now you’re sitting on yuan in a system with capital controls - you can’t just convert it and park it wherever you like. Your options are: buy Chinese goods, buy Chinese infrastructure contracts, invest in Chinese assets. That flow cycles straight back into Chinese factories and Chinese employment. China doesn’t have to stimulate its domestic consumption anymore. It exports the demand problem onto its trading partners and invoices it as a geopolitical arrangement. Three hundred million jobs - and unlike the US - no helicopter money required.

Those dollars that used to flow into Treasuries don’t just suddenly rush home. They just stop showing up at the next auction. Treasury needs to place roughly a trillion dollars every hundred days. Fewer buyers means higher yields. Higher yields mean the Fed is cornered. A cornered Fed means the printer runs. Same mechanism as demographics, same mechanism as the derivatives book, same direction.

My long-running conviction - and I’ve been saying this long enough that it stopped sounding contrarian and started sounding obvious - is that the world ends up back on a gold standard. Not the romanticised version where you rattle coins in your pocket. Though honestly, with modern payment rails, a gold-backed account is functionally identical to a dollar account. You’d never touch the metal. You’d just change the ticker from USD to XAU and carry on. The technology exists right now. The obstacle isn’t infrastructure. It’s that the people running the current system would rather light themselves on fire.

What happens first, before any grand declaration, is narrower: gold becomes the settlement layer between sovereigns who no longer trust each other’s paper. The US is apparently net-settling its trade deficit with China in gold - if that data holds up. In three of the last four months it seems that gold is flowing East. No Bretton Woods conference. No announcement. Just two countries quietly deciding that when the paper gets complicated, the metal clears the table. That’s how monetary systems actually change - not by proclamation but by practice, one bilateral settlement at a time, until enough of them are doing it that someone calls a conference to ratify what’s already happened. The Bretton Woods conference didn’t create the dollar system. It formalised what the war had already decided.

The next conference is coming. It just hasn’t been scheduled yet.

Silver. Because I can’t write a piece about systemic fragility without it, and because this week’s data is worth your attention even if the price chart isn’t.

The paper price looks terrible. Miners are trading like silver is heading back to $40. Silver Santa - one of the accounts I follow on Twitter (yeah, I’m old) - moved 40% to cash, describing “a strong pre-COVID feeling”. The technical picture is ugly.

But the crucial part: the physical reality didn’t get that memo.

The COMEX “run rate to zero” ticked down to 89 days as of Friday, from 93 days on Thursday. Four days burned in one. The SGE briefly stopped publishing silver inventory data mid-week, then quietly resumed. Shanghai is still paying a 13-17% premium over London. The same paper/physical divergence playing out in oil is running in silver at a slower pace with a much longer fuse.

But what does a draining vault have to do with your savings account?

More than most people think. The COMEX sets the global silver price. But if the COMEX increasingly doesn’t have the physical metal - and the run rate suggests it won’t for long - then the price it sets is a fiction. An unallocated silver account at your bank is a claim on that fiction. An ETF share is a claim on that fiction. When the fiction and the physical reality eventually converge, it won’t be because the paper comes up to meet the physical. It’ll be because the paper can no longer pretend.

Same mechanism as Dubai crude. Same mechanism as the derivatives book. Just a slower fuse.

When $68 trillion in US equity markets eventually moves - and it will - and the indiscriminate ETF selling hits everything, and the margin calls cascade through a derivatives book built on assumptions that no longer hold, and zombie companies start defaulting, and the boomer redemptions add their steady mechanical pressure, and 401k hardship withdrawals accelerate - the question of where capital goes becomes very concrete. Bonds? Already struggling to absorb a trillion per quarter. Cash? In which currency? Real estate? In a demographically challenged market with rising yields?

Gold has a structural bid from central banks who drew their conclusions in 2022 and have been buying ever since. Silver has vaults on an 89-day countdown and a paper price that hasn’t caught up yet.

I’m buying the dips. Have been. Will continue.

(A small aside: I’m considering opening a dedicated Substack to document my trades in real time - with a ten-minute lag - for those who want to follow the positions, not just the analysis. The analysis stays here, free.)

None of this is hidden.

None of it requires a security clearance or even a Bloomberg terminal. It’s all there, in the vault data, the yield curves, the fertility statistics, the derivatives book, the bunker fuel prices. The information exists. The pattern is legible.

The question was never whether this would happen.

The question was always who would be holding paper when it did.

Each crisis gets a fresh name but the same printer... TALF, TARP, BTFP, BTFD, YOLO, CTRLP.

*  *  *  STOCK UP OR REFRESH YOUR SUPPLY

14 Day Emergency Food Bucket

4,500 Seeds - GMO-Free, non-hybrid, open-pollinated

Beef, Chicken, Sausage - Meat & Rice Survival Bucket

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 18:55

Why The Left Is More Distressed, Anxious, & Filled With Hate Than The Right

Authored by 'Sallust' via DailySceptic.org,

There is an interesting article in the Telegraph by a psychotherapist called Jonathan Alpert, called ‘There’s a reason the Left seems more psychologically distressed than the Right’ (you can read it here).

This is how he opens:

In my clinical practice, one pattern has become increasingly difficult to ignore. Among a subset of patients on the political Left, hostility toward political opponents goes beyond dislike or even hatred.

It sometimes takes the form of moralised fantasies about an opponent’s death, disappointment that Donald Trump’s shooter did not have better aim, or statements that certain public figures ‘deserve’ to be eliminated for the greater good. These remarks are rarely presented as literal intent. But they nevertheless offer a revealing glimpse into emotional regulation and psychological wellbeing.

It appears that the Left-leaning patient is quick to express his or her distress in aggressive ways:

What stands out is not only the content of these expressions, but their tone. They are often delivered with intense anger and no shame, as though such thoughts are an understandable or even justified response to the political moment. At no point does the patient see these reactions as excessive or out of control.

Similar behaviours can be observed in real life, too. I was walking around New York City in the summer after the ‘No Kings’ protests. I was looking at a heaping high pile of anti-Trump signs and a woman came up to me and said: “Aren’t these great?” My response: “I kinda like some of what Trump has done.” Her response: “WELL F— YOU THEN!”’

Conversely, those on the Right are more restrained:

Conservative patients tend to behave somewhat differently. I routinely hear strong dislike, contempt and anger toward political leaders they oppose and it’s not uncommon to hear a patient say they disliked President Biden or strongly disagreed with his stance on the border. Many patients viewed Kamala Harris as incompetent and not at all prepared to be president. Some even described her as “dumb”.

But in my experience, this hostility rarely crossed into wishes of annihilation. Political opponents might be seen as wrong, corrupt or dangerous, but they are still human. From a clinical perspective, that distinction matters.

Later in the piece, Alpert explains this different in more detail:

On the Right, by contrast, there has long been a tendency to emphasise emotional restraint. Stoicism is admired. Complaining is viewed with suspicion. Personal struggle is expected to be managed privately. I have found that conservative patients are far less likely to describe their distress in therapeutic language or frame discomfort as pathology. That does not mean they suffer less. It means they express suffering differently.

Political anger on the Right more often appears as cynicism, resentment or disengagement rather than vulnerability or victimhood. Many conservative patients view politics as important but ultimately secondary. Their primary sources of meaning might be family, work, faith and local responsibility. When elections are lost, they tend to return to careers, marriages, children and routines. Politics frustrates them, but it does not typically dominate their life.

On the Left, political identity can often become inseparable from selfhood. When politics is experienced as an all-encompassing struggle between good and evil, emotional intensity escalates. Opponents are no longer merely wrong, but dangerous. Disagreement becomes existential threat. Loss becomes catastrophe.

What Alpert doesn’t apparently consider is the extent to which this difference might be attributable to age. After all, younger adults are more inclined to be attracted to the monochrome politics of the Left, their brains as yet unsaddled with the complications, provisos and more balanced considerations of a longer life. Older adults are inevitably more inclined to the ‘seen it all before’ form of cynicism.

Another way of looking at the issue is that people who are anxious and inclined to distress, and therefore perhaps more liable to explosive outbursts of rage, are more easily attracted to Left-wing politics, as explained in an online article published by two academics on Cambridge University Press, in this instance looking at people’s attraction to Left-wing economic policy as a means of escaping their sense of social exclusion.

In ‘Why anxious people lean to the Left on economic policy: personality, social exclusion and redistribution’, Adam Panish and Andrew Delton observe that:

Right-wing beliefs function as a salve for people who are chronically anxious and fearful, at least according to one of the oldest and most influential theories in political psychology. Yet recent research shows that liberals, not conservatives, are more prone to negative emotions. The link between mental health and ideology has generated much interest, sending journalists and pundits scrambling to figure out why liberals are so “depressed, anxious, or otherwise neurotic compared to conservatives”.

An article in Columbia University Magazine explains ‘Why depression rates are higher among liberals’:

American adults who identify as politically liberal have long reported lower levels of happiness and psychological well-being than conservatives, a trend that mental-health experts suspect is at least partly explained by liberals’ tendency to spend more time worrying about stress-inducing topics like racial injustice, income inequality, gun violence and climate change.

Now a team of Columbia epidemiologists has found evidence that the same pattern holds for American teenagers. The researchers analysed surveys collected from more than 86,000 12th graders over a 13-year period and discovered that while rates of depression have been rising among students of all political persuasions and demographics, they have been increasing most sharply among progressive students — and especially among liberal girls from low-income families.

You can read the Columbia epidemiological paper here. Another paper, available on Researchgate, concluded from research that:

There is a strongly elevated risk for mental illness among the extreme liberals (+150%), a small increase among the liberals and slightly liberals (+29-32%), and somewhat lower rates among conservatives and extreme conservatives (–17-24%). Breaking the pattern, slightly conservatives had a marginally increased rate (+6%). A variant of this analysis was also carried out by including the happiness metrics reverse-coded. This produced materially the same pattern, but was weaker since the happiness items had a weaker relationship with political ideology than the mental illness variables.

The Institute for Strategic Dialogue has a piece analysing aggression in Left-wing politics, while also acknowledging its presence on the Right. But the Left has some strong defining features:

Drawing on our own definition of extremism and this crucial distinction, we suggest that Left-wing extremism should be defined as a belief system that:

• Dogmatically claims the absolute moral superiority of communist or socialist political values,
• That separates political actors into binary moral categories accordingly, and
• That aspires to gain a monopoly of control over society.

Left-wing extremists commonly reject key tenets of liberal democracies, among them the separation of powers, universal human rights and political pluralism. They frequently express sympathies for authoritarian regimes and the conspiracy theories spread by them.

Of course, a common characteristic of the Left is to blame everyone else in a fog of febrile and desultory grievances, and that’s just as applicable to aggressive and angry speech. Trotsky exonerated such behaviour: “Abusive language and swearing are a legacy of slavery, humiliation and disrespect for human dignity, one’s own and that of other people.”

Looking up ‘Righteous Anger’ on AI produced this explanation:

Anger makes you feel righteous by functioning as a moral disinfectant, transforming feelings of powerlessness into a sense of superiority, vindication and justified control. It acts as a ‘power’ emotion that reinforces self-worth and confirms your moral standards against perceived injustice, offering a comfortable sense of being ‘right’.

Nothing could have described an angry and distressed Left-wing activist better.

Jonathan Alpert’s piece in the Telegraph is worth reading in full.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 18:05

Fed Remains On Hold (As Expected) Amid 'Uncertain Implications' Of War With Iran

Tl;dr: Rates on hold as expected with a hawkish tilt to 'uncertainty' around the Iran war clouding the outlook. The Dot-Plot showed no real change (7 on hold, 12 at least 1 cut in 2026) but inflation expectations surged in the SEP.

*  *  *

A lot - and we mean a lot - has happened since the last FOMC meeting (Jan 28th).

Oil is up 54% since the last FOMC meeting, bitcoin has tumbled. Gold and stocks are also down notably while the dollar has strengthened...

Both growth and inflation data have outperformed since the last FOMC meeting (but as the chart shows, fears are rising over stagflation as the impact of higher energy prices - and tighter financial conditions - could weigh on growth)...

Rate-cut expectations for 2026 have collapsed since the last FOMC meeting (most notably since the war began) with less than one full cut now priced in...

The market is priced for absolutely nothing to happen today (from a rate change perspective - higher or lower), so all eyes will be on the number of dissents, the new set of SEP (dots) data, and any commentary on the economy and/or the impact of the war.

Expectations are for a continuation of a "hawkish hold" amid heightened uncertainty.

FOMC Statement

Rates remain on hold with one dissent

• *FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE IN 11-1 VOTE

• *FED SAYS GOVERNOR STEPHEN MIRAN DISSENTS IN FAVOR OF RATE CUT

Fed statement comparison: exactly as expected.

• Very little changes, small downgrade to labor market ("some signs of stabilization" to "little changed in recent months"),

• ...and brief discussion or Iran war ("implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain")

MUFG’s George Goncalves says this is a “neutral” statement from the FOMC.

“The statement tweaks are an attempt at trying to avoid sending any signals while conveying they are on guard for any growth shocks and inflation spillover from the Middle East Conflict.”

Dots: Statement of Economic Projections 

• *FED MAINTAINS PROJECTIONS FOR ONE RATE CUT IN 2026, ONE IN 2027

The new dots show 7 Fed members preferring to hold for the rest of the year with 12 preferring at least 1 more cut...

In 2027, there is now only one member who sees a rate-hike...

So, rather interestingly, The Fed left the dots basically unchanged from December but spiked inflation expectations for 2027 for both headline and core to 2.7% (vs 2.4% and 2.5%)

As Bloomberg's Ira Jersey noted:

“Somewhat less obvious in the statement about Middle East led-uncertainty, but the higher inflation expectations in the SEP are certainly a sign the Fed is more concerned about current oil inflation, and less about next year. So a level shift is more or less built into their forecasts."

Now all eyes turn to Powell to see how 'hawkish' this hold is?

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 15:40

US Median Rent Hits 4-Year Low, 30th Straight Month of Decline

Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Renters across the United States may be able to save a bit more on apartment leases this month, as rents nationwide hit a four-year low last month, marking the 30th consecutive month of declines.

A sign is posted in front of an apartment building with available rentals in San Francisco on June 9, 2023. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

In its February Rental Report issued on March 17, Realtor.com recorded that the national median rent was $1,667, with 15 major markets posting rents more than 10 percent below their pandemic-era peaks.

The median rent for studio, one-bedroom, and two-bedroom apartments fell last month to its lowest level since March 2022. Nationally, the median rent fell by $29, or 1.7 percent, from a year earlier. While rents remained 14.2 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels in February 2020, they were $90, or 5.1 percent, lower than their peak in the summer of 2022.

“The persistent softness we’re seeing is increasingly translating into real savings for renters who, for a long time, felt the market was out of reach,” Danielle Hale, Realtor.com chief economist, said in the report.

Hale noted that rents typically skew lower during the winter months but are expected to rise slightly as spring approaches.

“For some areas, this will likely mean new rental price highs, even as renters in the Sun Belt continue to see notably lower rents,” she said.

Lower rents in the South were attributed to a continued boom in multifamily construction. Atlanta, Georgia, has seen 42 consecutive months of year-over-year declines, followed by Phoenix, Arizona, and Las Vegas, Nevada, both have had 41 months of decreases.

The median rent for all apartment sizes in Atlanta last month was $1,543—a 2 percent year-over-year decline. Renters in Phoenix saw a median price of $1,247, a 4.4 percent year-over-year drop, and renters in Las Vegas experienced a median price of $1,423, a 1.8 percent decrease.

According to the report, the national median rent for two-bedroom apartments declined by nearly 2 percent year over year in February, to $1,844 per month. One-bedroom apartments had a median rent of $1,548, and studios $1,393.

Oklahoma City offered the country’s lowest median rent at just $983 for all apartment sizes. Median rent in Birmingham, Alabama, came in at $1,125 last month, and in Columbus, Ohio, at $1,190. Other metros with median rents under $1,500 include Austin, Memphis, Nashville, Raleigh, and Jacksonville.

Three California metros had some of the country’s highest rents in February, with the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara metro topping the list with a median rent of $3,331—nearly a 2 percent year-over-year increase, and the 28th consecutive month in rent growth. San Francisco’s median rent was $2,768, while the San Diego metro saw a median rent of $2, 626.

Conversely, rents increased in five metro areas in February, settling just 3 percent below their all-time highs. Virginia Beach experienced a 4.5 percent hike in the median price, to $1,620. Baltimore, Richmond, and San Jose also saw unusual spikes in median rents. While rents were relatively low in Kansas City, Missouri, at $1,387, the metro experienced a larger-than-usual rise.

“We are seeing two different stories across the country,” Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu said in the report.

“As the spring season approaches, these markets are poised to resume an upward trajectory and push toward new all-time highs.”

A mid-February report by RentCafe predicted a mix of metro areas in the mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and South will be “hot spots” for the spring market.

Cincinnati ranked number one as the most sought-after city by renters, jumping 10 spots from 2025. The rise in its popularity was attributed to the city’s robust job market, revitalization of downtown neighborhoods, and riverfront development. Potential renters showing interest in the city were mainly from Columbus, Chicago, and New York City.

Atlanta, Minneapolis, Washington, DC, and Baltimore also made the top 5 list of popular rental cities. Even with its sky-high rents, San Jose earned seventh place on the list, due to its reputation as a tech-hub hotspot.

The only Northeast location to make the list was Philadelphia, drawing prospective renters mainly from New York City and Boston.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 15:25

Iran Says It Busted Up Over 100 'Pro-Monarchist Cells' Working With US, Israel

Iranian authorities have newly announced hundreds more arrests across the country, describing that anti-government "pro-monarchy cells" and "traitors" have been exposed and caught. 

Tehran officials have touted busting up more than 100 of these alleged cells in 26 of Iran's 31 provinces in a major overnight security operation, describing that these groups were aligned with US and Israeli interests.

Security forces from the Intelligence Ministry "have identified and arrested 111 monarchist cells across 26 provinces before they could take action on the last Wednesday of the year," the ministry stated according to Fars.

AFP/Getty Images

The ministry said that firearms, knives, and other weapons of various types were recovered. As for how many individuals were precisely rounded up and detained, this was undisclosed.

According to more details via Al Jazeera:

The ministry says four suspected spies linked to the United States were arrested in Hamedan city and West Azerbaijan province, both in the country’s west.

Authorities also arrested another 21 people accused of cooperating with the London-based broadcaster Iran International, which is outlawed in Iran.

Iran has long accused the London-based outlet Iran International of being a front for Mossad, and it also reportedly has links to Saudi Arabia - and is well known for actively promoting former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi as the next ruler of Iran.

As for Pahlavi, despite his name often appearing in Western media reports connected to the Iran crisis, the Shah's family has been in exile for nearly fifty years - and so is a name not widely known or supported among the bulk of over 90 million citizens of Iran.

However, Reza Pahlavi's profile has been rising - given also Western satellite and government programming has been beaming his name into the Islamic Republic, going back especially to the large deadly January economic protests.

As for domestic pressure on the Iranian government, the opposition remains fractured and small, with the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard telling a Senate Intelligence hearing on Wednesday "the Iranian regime appears to be intact, but largely degraded by the US military operation."

What we are likely going to continue to see at least in the near term, amid the US-Israeli bombing campaign, is summed up in an international relations concept which is so basic and foundational (in terms of being entirely predictable as 'blowback') that it even has its own Wikipedia page: the rally 'round the flag effect. 

#BREAKING
Iran arrests US spies, dismantles pro-monarchy terror cells pic.twitter.com/TfxTQ1V5wN

— Tehran Times (@TehranTimes79) March 18, 2026

A simple definition is the psychological and political phenomenon which describes the unification of citizens and societies behind national leaders and institutions in a time of extreme crisis or external threat, such as war or invasion by a foreign power.

Israel will in the meantime continue to try and peel away and steer opposition groups and movements inside Iran, in an effort to foment regime collapse from within, but it will be a very tall order.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 15:10

Unearthed Docs Reveal More Names Targeted in Biden DOJ's Fishing Expedition

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Former Special Counsel Jack Smith targeted more Republican lawmakers and conservative figures than previously known, newly unearthed documents show. 

Smith, tasked by the Biden administration with prosecuting Donald Trump after 2021, has faced scrutiny since 2025, when bombshell disclosures revealed he targeted GOP lawmakers as well as dozens of conservative nonprofits and PACs. 

Newly reported DOJ documents, first obtained Tuesday by Fox News, show the scope extended to former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani, and Reps. Brian Babin, R-Texas, and Andy Biggs, R-Ariz. 

Also included were now-EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, who was then a GOP lawmaker, and former Reps. Mo Brooks, Matt Gaetz, Paul Gosar, Louie Gohmert and Jody Hice. 

Smith’s team internally debated seeking phone toll records for the targets, including highly sensitive data like incoming and outgoing numbers, call times and durations, before deciding whether to issue subpoenas. 

The effort emerged through former DOJ attorney Timothy Duree, who was removed from the department after Trump was sworn in for a second term in January 2025. 

“I’d like to seek [the Public Integrity Section’s] concurrence to get phone tolls for several MOCs who had contact with pertinent parties in our investigation,” Duree wrote.

“I’ll keep the timeframe tight—probably October 1, 2020, to January 31, 2021.” 

The documents show Duree compiled a list of 16 names as he weighed whether to subpoena them all at once, though some of those records were ultimately obtained by Smith. 

That list included additional Republican lawmakers previously identified in earlier disclosures, including Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn., Josh Hawley, R-Mo., Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., Ron Johnson, R-Wis., Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., and Rep. Mike Kelly, R-Pa. 

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, was also targeted, but his phone carrier, AT&T, pushed back against the subpoena.

The newly uncovered emails come as the Trump administration and congressional judiciary committees continue examining the scope of the aggressive prosecution targeting Trump and his allies.

The probe began under the controversial Operation Frostbite and later expanded with Smith’s appointment as special counsel.

In February, Headline USA spoke with former FBI Deputy Director David Bowdich, who appeared to play a role in the early stages of the probe.

Bowdich stated that the 2021 probe was carried out in a “non-partisan way, with professionalism and in the spirit of the law which was to follow the facts, no matter where they led.”

Duree did not respond to requests for comment.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 14:50