Individual Economists

US Tariff Investigations Put China, EU And Other Major Trading Partners In New Crosshairs

Zero Hedge -

US Tariff Investigations Put China, EU And Other Major Trading Partners In New Crosshairs

The Trump administration has opened a new round of tariff investigations that could lead to higher duties on at least 16 trading partners, as officials seek to rebuild a trade enforcement framework after the Supreme Court invalidated a number of the president’s second-term tariffs.

The probes, announced Wednesday by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, will be conducted under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, a statute that allows the U.S. to impose tariffs on countries whose policies are deemed to discriminate against American commerce. The investigations require consultations with foreign governments as well as public hearings and comment periods before any new tariffs can be imposed.

The effort is intended to replace temporary global tariffs of 10% that President Donald Trump imposed last month after the Supreme Court ruled many of his earlier duties unlawful. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said officials have not yet determined how high the replacement tariffs might be, declining to prejudge the outcome of the investigations. Administration economic officials have previously indicated they aim to generate tariff revenue comparable to levels collected before the court’s decision, the WSJ reports.

The Probes

One investigation launched Wednesday will examine what U.S. officials describe as industrial overcapacity in export-oriented economies. The administration argues that subsidies in some countries allow producers to flood global markets with underpriced goods, undermining American manufacturers. Nations likely to face scrutiny include major U.S. trading partners such as China, India, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the European Union.

“Our view is that key trading partners have developed production capacity that is really untethered from the market incentives of domestic and global demand,” Greer told reporters ahead of the investigation’s release.

A second probe, expected later this week, will examine foreign policies related to forced labor. The inquiry could result in tariffs on countries that do not prohibit the sale or importation of goods produced through coerced labor. Greer said the investigation would target roughly 60 nations.

Section 301 investigations typically take months or even years to complete. Greer said the administration intends to accelerate the process and aims to finish the probes by mid-July, when the temporary tariffs are scheduled to expire.

Additional investigations could follow in the coming weeks, Greer said, potentially targeting specific countries or policy areas. Some could focus on blocs such as the European Union, while others may address issues like digital trade policies that the U.S. considers discriminatory toward American companies.

Let's Make a Deal

Many of the countries likely to be affected have already negotiated trade agreements with the U.S. during Trump’s second term in an effort to limit tariff exposure. Greer said he expects those agreements to remain in force, noting that trading partners had already anticipated some level of U.S. tariffs.

"The United States will no longer sacrifice its industrial base to other countries that may be exporting their problems with excess capacity and production to us. Today’s investigations underscore President Trump’s commitment to reshore critical supply chains and create good-paying jobs for American workers across our manufacturing sectors," said Greer in a statement. 

Trump’s earlier global duties had exempted products already covered by national-security tariffs imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Greer said it is too early to determine whether the new Section 301 tariffs will include similar exemptions, though the administration wants to avoid creating additional compliance complexity for companies.

While Section 301 provides a stronger legal foundation than the emergency powers used for the tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, the move is likely to face political scrutiny. Democrats have warned that new duties could raise costs for consumers during an election year.

“Section 301 tariffs are meant to address specific and legitimate unfair trade practices,” Senator Tim Kaine, a Virginia Democrat, said in a statement. “They should not be used to drag the United States back into a cost-raising, broad-based tariff regime now that the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s illegal Ieepa taxes on American consumers.”

Companies will have until mid-April to submit comments related to the industrial overcapacity probe, Greer said, with public hearings scheduled for early May.

h/t Capital.news

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 07:45

Ten Maersk Ships 'Trapped' In Persian Gulf

Zero Hedge -

Ten Maersk Ships 'Trapped' In Persian Gulf

Authored by Stuart Chirls va Freightwaves.com,

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has effectively trapped 10 Maersk ships in the Persian Gulf, its chief executive said.

In separate interviews with CNN and the Wall Street Journal, Vincent Clerc said the Danish carrier’s ships “cannot get out,” are “stuck in the Upper Gulf” and cannot leave the region.

As a safety measure, Clerc said the vessels have been grouped offshore and away from ports under attack. At least one ship is under contract to the U.S. government’s Military Sealift Command, according to data on maritime identification websites.

Even if a ceasefire allowed vessel traffic to begin moving, Clerc said it would take a week to 10 days for the world’s second-largest liner (MAERSK-B.CO) to resume normal operations.

Clerc’s comments underscore the frustrations of shipping lines who have requested and repeatedly been denied naval escorts by the Trump administration. Carriers have been told in briefings that the Strait is still too dangerous for transit. 

Iran on Wednesday used unmanned boats to attack two tankers, and also deployed missiles and drones to attack ports, airports and other landside targets in the Gulf region. A ONE container ship sustained damage from unidentified projectiles.

Maersk is prioritizing the safety of crews, ships, and customers’ cargo, said Clerc, and will only restart voyages if that safety is guaranteed.

Shipping executives gathered in Connecticut for an industry conference said that the Iran war has idled 10,000 merchant crew and hundreds of vessels in the Persian Gulf. Mariners have little choice but to stay with their ships, since most airlines have suspended flights into and out of the area.

Maersk, like others major carriers, has suspended or re-routed some services to and from Gulf states and is rerouting vessels via alternate hubs, to stage cargo until the strait is re-opened. It has also assessed shippers with a number of emergency surcharges.

The closure of Hormuz and related disruptions in the Red Sea have had “profound” effects on global shipping and supply chains, Clerc said, and that Maersk is in “uncharted territory.”

Bunkering terminals in Asia and the Middle East could risk running dry amid the disruption of fuel supply chains, and he warned added costs for diversions and delays will be passed on to customers.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 07:20

Bessent Greenlights Sale Of Russian Oil At Sea To "Promote Stability In Global Energy Markets"

Zero Hedge -

Bessent Greenlights Sale Of Russian Oil At Sea To "Promote Stability In Global Energy Markets"

In a statement late Thursday on X, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the U.S. will allow countries to purchase Russian crude oil already at sea. The move aims to temporarily boost global supply availability, as the IEA warned earlier that the Middle East conflict has sparked one of the worst energy shocks on record.

"To increase the global reach of existing supply, @USTreasury is providing a temporary authorization to permit countries to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea," Bessent said.

He continued, "This narrowly tailored, short-term measure applies only to oil already in transit and will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government, which derives the majority of its energy revenue from taxes assessed at the point of extraction."

UBS analyst Nana Antiedu told clients earlier this morning that about 124 million barrels of Russian-origin oil were at sea across 30 locations worldwide.

More specifically, Bloomberg analysts said about 30 Russian tankers are in Asian waters and may be available for purchase. These tankers carry about 19 million barrels of Russian crude and 310,000 tons of refined products.

Bloomberg data show these Russian tankers are signaling "for orders" or, in other words, have no clear destination yet. They could be unloaded in Singapore or Malaysia.

Robert Rennie, head of commodity research at Westpac Banking, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying, "Of course, any supply helps, but this is a smaller help than it looks."

Rennie estimated that of the 125 million to 150 million barrels of Russian crude on the water, about a third is off China and is likely to end up in storage, while 30 million to 40 million barrels are in India and are likely to be consumed there.

Rennie said the rest is in the Mediterranean and the Atlantic. "We are only really talking about replacing maybe four or five days of lost Gulf exports. Sure, it helps, but it is no panacea," he added.

Bessent's office also issued India a 30-day waiver at the beginning of the month so that New Delhi could buy Russian oil at sea to build reserves and cushion against an oil shock.

Brent crude futures are largely unchanged from when Bessent posted on X overnight. President Trump said the U.S. has "plenty of time" in the Iran war. Brent hovers around $100/bbl as of 0630 ET.

The Trump administration has taken several steps to combat triple-digit Brent and WTI prices, including the planned release of 172 million barrels from the U.S. SPR. The release is part of a much larger 400-million-barrel SPR dump worldwide, agreed upon by the 32-nation IEA. This comes as the IEA warned about the worst-ever energy shock to hit the world. Also, the Trump administration is waiving a century-old law that requires U.S. ships to transport goods between American ports, so that domestic supplies can be shifted around more quickly.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 06:55

10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

AI Isn’t Coming for Everyone’s Job: The Atlantic on the limits of artificial intelligence — the things AI does brilliantly and the vast terrain of human work it can’t touch. The rise and fall of the player piano indicates a robust demand for human labor that machines cannot replace. (The Atlantic)

How Homeowners Are Turning to Adjustable-Rate Mortgages, in Charts: The prospect of short-term savings is pushing more buyers to adjustable-rate mortgages. (Wall Street Journal) see also How elevator rules are throwing a wrench into America’s housing market: The unintended consequences of a 1988 law are making housing less accessible and driving up prices. Disability-access elevator requirements are adding enormous cost to mid-rise construction, making affordable housing harder to build. (Washington Post)

What the Push for Alts in Retail Channels Means for Institutional Investors: Limited partners have questions about their managers’ quest for new sources of capital. (Chief Investment Officer)

The return-to-the-office trend backfires: Across practitioner reports and peer-reviewed research, organizations that commit to highly flexible models, including remote-first, report strong output, healthier engagement, and faster growth than mandate-driven peers. (The Hill)

Why ATMs didn’t kill bank teller jobs, but the iPhone did: The classic automation parable gets a second act — and the real job killer wasn’t the machine you’d expect. There’s a lot more to replacing labor than just automating tasks. (David Oks) see also Silicon Valley’s New Obsession: Watching Bots Do Their Grunt Work:  Tech workers are mesmerized by watching AI agents click through spreadsheets and fill out forms on their behalf; they compare notes on how long their fleet of virtual interns can labor away without making a mistake (Wall Street Journal)

Microsoft Takes a Stand Against the Trump Administration: The technology giant’s siding with Anthropic in its fight against the Pentagon stands out in an era when big companies have tended to keep quiet. As the tech giant pushes back on Pentagon demands, Anthropic is caught in the middle. (DealBook)

How a Die-Hard Libertarian Is Negotiating Lower Health-Care Costs:  An Oklahoma anesthesiologist has spent decades posting transparent prices at his surgery center. Others are now following his lead. (Businessweek)

The right way to be a scientific contrarian: Being a skeptic is important. Being a crank is not. Here’s how to tell the difference. Not everyone accepts the scientific consensus; some even make careers out of challenging it. But only a select few do it the right way. (Big Think)

• YouTube Just Ate TV. It’s Only Getting Started. YouTube has surpassed traditional television in viewership across sports, late night, and comedy — and the gap is widening fast.(Hollywood Reporter)

What Brad Pitt in ‘F1’ and Michael B. Jordan in ‘Sinners’ Can Teach Men About Style: This year’s Oscar-nominated movies are a menswear feast. Stylists and costume designers offer five takeaways. Hollywood’s latest leading men are offering a masterclass in how to dress like a grown-up. (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Matt Cherwin, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Marek Capital. The alternative asset management firm launched in 2024. Previously, he spent 16-years at JPMorgan Chase & Co where he held titles of Chief Investment Officer, Group Treasurer, Co-Head of Global Spread Markets, Global Head of Securitized Products, and Global Head of Asset-Backed Trading.

We assume human cognitive labor is scarce and predictably compensated. AI, however, undoes this scarcity.

Source: Paul Kedrosky

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

'Societal Time Bomb' – Explosive German Police Study Finds Nearly Half All Muslims Under 40 Has 'Islamist' Attitudes

Zero Hedge -

'Societal Time Bomb' – Explosive German Police Study Finds Nearly Half All Muslims Under 40 Has 'Islamist' Attitudes

Via Remix News,

A newly released study by the German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), nearly 50 percent of Muslims under the age of 40 in Germany hold “Islamist” views, with these Muslims expressing an attraction to Islamism, a preference for Sharia law over the German Basic Law, and harboring anti-Semitic prejudices.

The findings, described as “explosive in nature,” were featured in the latest edition of the “Motra Monitor.” The study reports that as of 2025, Muslims in Germany under the age of 40 (45.1 percent) hold “latent or manifestly Islamist attitudes.“

Some German politicians have already voiced their views on the study’s release. Wolfgang Kubicki, a prominent politician in the Free Democrats (FDP) and former MP, stated on X: “This study should set off all the alarm bells. It is a societal time bomb. We must not only talk about migration, but also about integration and religion. The policy of naively looking away has favored this development. The naivety must stop.”

He further stated that “anyone who demands a caliphate is an enemy of democracy. Enemies of democracy without German citizenship must leave the country. Neighborhoods where ghettoization provides fertile ground for radicalization must be restructured. Islamic associations without a clear demarcation from extremists must not be interlocutors for politics. Germany must act secular and self-confident.”

He further called for an end to headscarves in schools and other state institutions “not to harass or suspect the wearers, but to make it clear that the only binding source of our values is the Basic Law.”

Beyond rising crime rates, terrorism offenses, and demographic change, the soaring numbers of Muslims in Europe also raise fundamental questions about worldview and society.

The “Motra monitor,” a monitoring system tracking radicalization, spans 598 pages. It is published by the BKA and receives funding from several entities, including the Federal Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry of Family Affairs. While the report addresses various forms of extremism, including right-wing movements, it places a significant focus on Islamist extremism.

Evidence of these tensions surfaced in the summer of 2025 when “young Muslims and radical left-wing Germans occupied the Gutenberg Memorial in Frankfurt to demonstrate against Israel, some of them willing to use violence.“

The study’s researchers highlight a concerning core demographic, noting that “manifest Islamist attitudes are most prevalent among Muslims under 40, at 11.5 percent.“

In this context, “manifesto“ indicates that a person’s radicalization toward Islamism is already clearly evident and pronounced.

Further complicating the social landscape is a much larger group identified by the authors as having “latently Islamism-savvy attitudes.” This segment has seen a massive increase since 2021. The research group writes that “this amounts to 33.6 percent for those under 40 in 2025.“

While “latent” suggests these Islamist attitudes are present, the radicalization has not yet become openly visible. Combined, these two groups account for “45.1 percent“ of all under-40 Muslims in Germany.

Renowned Islamism researcher Prof. Susanne Schröter, who conducted most of her research into Islamism at the Institute of Ethnology at Goethe University Frankfurt and served as the director of the Frankfurt Research Center for Global Islam until 2025, said to Bild: “Islamism-savvy means that Muslims consider Islamist interpretations of Islam to be correct, are attracted to Islamist organizations close to the Muslim Brotherhood or Salafism, prefer Sharia to the Basic Law, and usually also have anti-Semitic prejudices.”

The BKA study suggests that the radicalization of young Muslims accelerated significantly following the Hamas terrorist attacks on Oct. 7, 2023.

Germany is far from the only country seeing the rise of Islamism within the populace. A sobering study from the prestigious polling service Ifop from last year shows that hardline views are growing amongst Muslims in France, including an emphasis on the laws of Islam being placed over those of the state, particularly among young Muslims. At the same time, Christianity is collapsing in France.

Among Muslims in general, 44 percent polled say they “respect the rules of Islam” as being more important “than respect for French laws.” For those aged 15-24, 57 percent believe the rules of Islam are more important than “respect for French laws.”

Some 38 percent of French Muslims approve of all or part of Islamist positions, doubling the figure of 19 percent in 1998, underlines Ifop.

Correspondingly, the share of Muslims who want Islam to modernize has fallen from 48 percent in 1998 to 21 percent today. When Ifop requested respondents to choose between the Civil Code and Sharia law on “an important subject in your family, such as ritual slaughter, marriage or inheritance,” 49 percent of Muslims chose to respect French laws, down from 62 percent in 1995. The consumption of alcohol among Muslim men has also fallen sharply, from 46 percent in 1989 to only 26 percent today.

Today, 33 percent of Muslims residing in France — French citizens or foreign nationals — feel sympathy for one of the Islamist movements, a figure that rises to 42 percent among young people. Within this population, 3 percent have sympathy for the most radical and bloody ideology, jihadism.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 06:30

Feminist Monster Film "The Bride" Is Biggest Box Office Bomb Of 2026

Zero Hedge -

Feminist Monster Film "The Bride" Is Biggest Box Office Bomb Of 2026

According to polls, around half of the US population identifies with feminism and feminist activism (though, this stat is in steep decline among Gen Z men).  But if this is truly the case and there is such a large population of feminist allies out there in the ether, why don't they ever show up to movie theaters to support films with blatant feminist messaging? 

The obvious conclusion is that the public has been lied to and there is no vast feminist movement.  It's a paper tiger, a fantasy, a mirage. 

We have seen this reality play out time and time again over the past few years as the American populace has now awakened to Hollywood's woke propaganda agenda.  Almost every instance of a new film or streaming series being exposed as far-left in its content results in financial failure.  There is no audience for these projects.   

The entertainment industry has resorted to masking feminist propaganda behind popular branding and false marketing in order to trick consumers into theater seats (the Barbie movie comes to mind), but these successes are few and far between.  Such projects might have a small, niche market on militant progressive streaming services like Netflix, but they still call for a bare bones budget and minimal marketing on dedicated woke media platforms. 

Around 20 years ago, feminist art house flicks, LGBT dramas and race based commentaries were made for around $10 million a pop and were relegated to festivals like Sundance and Cannes.  At these exclusive events they would garner ample and pompous applause from uppity New York and LA socialites and then fizzle into obscurity where they belong.

Today, major studios are spending upwards of $150 million in production and marketing costs to make and distribute the same kinds of film school garbage, and they are losing their shirts. 

A recent example is aging actress and amateur director Maggie Gyllenhaal's feminist monster film "The Bride", which latches onto the public domain story of Frankenstein (every movie must be a remake or a reboot to get greenlit these days). 

The project was given a production budget of $90 million and a marketing budget of $65 million - A total of $155 million spent to bring the dead plot to life.  In its opening week, The Bride has brought in around $14 million in global box office receipts, and keep in mind, half those revenues go to theaters.  

It's a unmitigated disaster; the biggest theatrical flop of the year and it probably won't be beat in 2026.  That said, anyone with any sense could have predicted this movie's downfall. 

The story follows a woman possessed by the spirit of Mary Shelley, who is back from the dead to tell the story of "the bride" she had always meant to tell.  She says she was "held back by the patriarchy" from writing the tale, but now you get to see it on the big screen for $20 per ticket and $50 for popcorn and soda.  Lucky you.

The woman is, of course, murdered by evil men and then brought back to life by a scientist who is seeking a companion for the Frankenstein Monster (played by Christian Bale), who is lonely after 100 years of being an angry "incel".

The story then devolves into a college girl's self indulgent fan fiction of the Bride of Frankenstein, mixing elements of Sid and Nancy with Bonnie and Clyde.  The main character and her male sidekick go on a killing spree, which inspires other women across the country to commit copycat crimes and murder the "men who wronged them".

There is nothing new or groundbreaking about the concept.  From "Thelma and Louise" to the movie "I Shot Andy Warhol", there are hundreds of movies and TV shows affirming the feminist notion that women are immune to accountability. In other words, if a women does something evil, we must assume she has a good reason.  Or, women are allowed to do evil as long as they perceive themselves to be victims. 

The Bride is yet another tired version of this ongoing feminist trope of women being "empowered" by psychopathy.  Not only that, but it regurgitates the leftist extremist fantasy of becoming some kind of Marxist martyr and triggering a bloody mob frenzy.  The fundamental motivation of these stories is narcissistic in nature; a desperate desire to be so adored and worshiped that people would gleefully destroy or kill to honor your name.  

The theatrical apparatus is still being bombarded with woke content into 2026 despite dismal audience attendance because most of these movies were approved and started filming during the Biden Administration when studios thought the woke indoctrination machine was well protected.  The Bride received approval in January of 2024 and started filming that same year.  A lot has changed since then. 

For now, entertainment productions are plummeting (down 60%) and Hollywood is lost.  They centered their entire business model around the woke agenda and now they have no idea how to restructure and create real content again.  It is likely these companies will collapse in due course, making way for newcomers with better ideas, greater talent and less political zealotry.   

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 05:45

UK Govt Urges Schools To Snitch On 'Anti-Muslim Hostility' In Orwellian Crackdown

Zero Hedge -

UK Govt Urges Schools To Snitch On 'Anti-Muslim Hostility' In Orwellian Crackdown

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The UK government is ramping up its assault on free expression, now urging schools, councils, and workplaces to monitor and report “anti-Muslim hostility” as part of a broader strategy that critics slam as a tool to silence legitimate debate.

Under Labour’s plans, institutions will be encouraged to track incidents of ‘prejudice’ against Muslims, with a new definition adopted to clarify unacceptable behavior. This comes amid a surge in hate crimes, but opponents warn it could muzzle criticism of Islamism or immigration policies.

Schools are at the forefront, with the government pushing for monitoring in education settings where antisemitism and anti-Muslim hate have reportedly normalized.

This escalating surveillance in schools reeks of authoritarian control, prioritizing thought policing over genuine security.

The strategy includes boosting security for mosques and Muslim schools through schemes upgrading CCTV, alarms, and fencing. A new “anti-Muslim hostility tsar” will oversee implementation, advising schools, universities, and public services on tackling hatred.

Communities Secretary Steve Reed defended the move in Parliament: “Today, we are adopting a non-statutory definition of anti-Muslim hostility. This gives a clear explanation of unacceptable prejudice, discrimination and hatred targeting Muslims, so we can take action to stop it.”

But Jonathan Hall KC, the government’s independent reviewer of terrorism legislation, has blasted the vague wording, warning it could chill free speech and make people afraid to criticize Islam, migration, or Islamist extremism. He argued it might be used to silence debate rather than stop actual attacks.

Tory MP Miriam Cates echoed concerns, noting the definition raises serious questions. A recommendation from Hall suggested including examples of free speech not deemed anti-Muslim hatred to safeguard open discussion.

Richard Holmes, from the Free Speech Union, added: “It risks hindering free speech under the law and legitimate criticism of Islamism.”

Labour insists the definition won’t halt legitimate criticism of religion, focusing instead on tackling anti-Muslim hatred without protecting Islam from scrutiny.

This push also ties into the leaked “social cohesion” strategy previously covered earlier, where the government branded the Union Jack and other national flags as potential “tools of hate” wielded by the “extreme right” to intimidate.

That draft allocated £800 million over 10 years to areas under “pressure,” highlighting how antisemitism has become “normalised” in society, from schools to the NHS.

It’s also part of the regime’s broader censorship drive, like plotting another X shutdown over Grok’s “offensive” roasts targeting religions. As users pointed out, the likely real motive behind the push is that Kier Starmer’s administration can’t handle a platform exposing their constant lies and spreading of misinformation.

Meanwhile, counter-terror police are warning teens that sharing “funny” content online could land them a criminal record, framing memes as potential terrorism gateways. In one ad, a white schoolboy faces device seizures for linking material later deemed extremist—all while real threats from Islamist ideology go under-prioritized.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 05:00

"Consumer Sentiment Going Down": EU Auto Heads Begin Blaming Iran Conflict For Industry Woes

Zero Hedge -

"Consumer Sentiment Going Down": EU Auto Heads Begin Blaming Iran Conflict For Industry Woes

The first-order effect of the U.S.-Iran conflict was widespread disruption across the Middle East. The second-order effect was an energy price shock that drove gasoline and diesel prices at the pump sharply higher. The third-order effect could be a deterioration in consumer sentiment amid higher energy costs, rising inflation fears, and broader economic/geopolitical uncertainty.

The transmission of the energy shock to consumers appears to have materialized just 12 days into Operation Epic Fury, according to executives at Volkswagen and Volvo Car, who report that consumer sentiment has already softened.

"We are already seeing customer sentiment decline in many markets," Volkswagen Head of Sales Martin Sander told an industry event in London earlier on Thursday. "Consumers were already facing a great deal of uncertainty, and this is now, of course, adding another layer of anxiety."

Volvo's UK managing director, Nicole Melillo Shaw, told the audience that economic uncertainty may soon weigh on consumer sentiment enough for households to begin pulling back on big-ticket purchases.

"If I don't need to and I've got other considerations around the cost of living going up, then maybe I won't buy another new car," Shaw said. Both EU car company heads were speaking at an industry event hosted by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.  

Earlier this week, UBS analyst Joseph Spak noted that investor concerns were mounting over a spike in crude prices and the threat it poses to auto demand. However, he noted that oil prices and auto demand in the U.S. show only a weak long-term linkage:

Investor concern around higher oil prices pressuring U.S. auto demand is understandable, especially considering affordability is already an issue. But historical data suggests the relationship is modest at best.

Looking back to 1970, U.S. light vehicle SAAR exhibits only a slight negative correlation with real oil prices (-0.15, Figure 1), and a similarly weak correlation with real gasoline prices since 1990 (-0.17, Figure 2).

While directionally intuitive, these correlations are small and insufficient to explain meaningful shifts in industry demand on their own.

The question now is whether European carmakers are merely scapegoating Trump's Operation Epic Fury, given that their sales were already sagging well before the conflict and Chinese brands were steadily taking market share.

Much more in the full note (available here to pro subscribers).

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 04:15

Germany's Industrial Collapse: Degrowth And Ideology At Work

Zero Hedge -

Germany's Industrial Collapse: Degrowth And Ideology At Work

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Even with some temporal distance and broader perspective, the election result in Baden-Württemberg makes no sense. That the two eco-socialist parties, fused into a kind of political twin planet—Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and the CDU—could claim almost two-thirds of the votes cast is staggering given the economic situation in the country. It raises a fundamental question: Can—or will—Germans no longer connect economic decline with political responsibility in any meaningful way?

Baden-Württemberg’s capital, Stuttgart, is notably at the epicenter of this decline. The city serves, in a way, as a blueprint for the future envisioned by green transformation advocates.

It makes no difference whether it is green ideologues and hardliners like Jürgen Trittin exploiting the cultivated German guilt complex for their degrowth fantasies, or CDU politicians of the Merkel-Merz line staging placebo reforms for public consumption. Both strategies ultimately point to the same goal: replacing traditional German industry with a state-controlled command economy.

That the Mittelstand and major industry are collapsing under mounting fiscal pressure and the energy transition catastrophe is undeniable. Added to this is a kind of vacuum effect in the capital markets.

Every subsidy, especially the state-guaranteed high returns in the green art economy, drains valuable resources from the free market. Startup funding, growth financing, and venture capital are systematically squeezed or driven abroad.

Entrepreneurs may even choose the simpler path of marching along, extracting subsidies on the way to the green paradise. The problem is that state-run economics, whether executed by private companies as government proxies or directly by the state, adds no value to the economy. It is a destructive mechanism, felt even by city treasurers in Stuttgart, the new capital of ideological escapists.

Last year, trade tax revenue collapsed by roughly fifty percent—a clear sign of massive economic damage. The city budget deficit surged to €800 million. Only a €2.4 billion emergency credit keeps the city afloat over the next three years.

In real life, those responsible for this disaster might face court for insolvency mismanagement. But for politics in Germany—and much of the European Union—different standards evidently apply.

Hardly anyone seems to notice that the technological and emotional flagships with which the region identified over generations are collapsing under the green regime. Daimler alone cut 7,000 jobs in the Stuttgart region, Bosch another 4,000.

The state risks becoming a gigantic social park, partially deforested for monstrous wind turbines, its landscapes overrun with solar farms.

It is interesting to observe how conservative work ethic, once a prominent regional virtue, has translated over time into militant green-socialist moralism.

That the system still functions at all owes today’s Southwest Germany precisely to nuclear power from France. Even this shows: this universal law is sometimes tinged with bitter cynicism.

No matter how high Württembergers and Badeners have built their walls of illusion, the waves of real economics will shatter this political illusion of reform denial. Rumors are already circulating that Porsche may have to lay off up to 5,000 employees in the region. Regional industrial production is no longer competitive.

It will be a painful learning process. But even South German green enthusiasts cannot indefinitely evade the axioms of economics.

Competitiveness is not created in the seminars of flourishing NGOs or the numerous ecological interest groups preaching through the media in zealot tones.

No, companies will learn it the hard way: their real wealth, now overgrown with the swamp plant of moralism, was the product of rigorous discipline, market order, and rational bourgeois ethics. Globally sought-after engineering achievements contributed significantly.

Still, about twelve percent of the region’s total economic output comes from mechanical engineering—the very sector weakened most under the green-socialist regime, second only to the region’s automotive industry, another pillar. VDMA report

Like Shakespeare, the Romeo and Juliet of the German economy are now taking their own lives. Since 2018, industrial production in Germany has fallen over twenty percent, with mechanical engineering alone losing five percent last year.

This is no longer a recession—it is a conscious economic decline in the name of the green god, worshiped in Baden-Württemberg more fervently than anywhere else in the republic. A shame for this beautiful region with its rich and remarkable history.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 03:30

Volkswagen Plans 50,000 Job Cuts Due To Plunging Profits; Board Members Grab €1.75MM Each In Bonuses

Zero Hedge -

Volkswagen Plans 50,000 Job Cuts Due To Plunging Profits; Board Members Grab €1.75MM Each In Bonuses

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

German automaker Volkswagen plans to cut around 50,000 jobs in Germany by 2030 as profits slump and the company struggles with rising costs, tariffs, and declining margins.

The job cuts were announced alongside the company’s 2025 financial results, which showed net profit falling 44 percent to €6.9 billion — the lowest level since the fallout from the Volkswagen emissions scandal.

At the same time, Volkswagen’s board has come under fire after securing additional bonus payments tied to the 2025 financial year.

According to reporting by Tichys Einblick, board members are set to receive bonuses of up to €1.75 million each after the company unexpectedly reported around €6 billion in net automotive cash flow for 2025, a figure that the news outlet claims was achieved by adopting “creative accounting practices.”

It pushed Volkswagen above the €5.6 billion threshold in its executive compensation scheme, activating the highest bonus tier for board members.

The cash-flow result was partly achieved through a factoring operation in which Volkswagen sold outstanding receivables from its operating business to generate immediate liquidity, according to the report.

In the same financial year, workers were forced to forgo bonuses of up to €5,000 due to the company’s weak performance.

In a letter to shareholders on Tuesday, CEO Oliver Blume confirmed the planned workforce reduction, saying the figure applies across the entire Volkswagen Group in Germany. The company had already announced plans to cut around 35,000 jobs at the core Volkswagen brand by the end of the decade.

The company said the drop in net profit was driven by billions of euros in charges linked to its sports car subsidiary Porsche AG, the impact of U.S. import tariffs, and the costs of restructuring across the group.

Revenue remained largely stable at just under €322 billion, down 0.8 percent compared with the previous year, while global vehicle deliveries slipped slightly to just under 9 million units.

Sales rose 5 percent in Europe and 10 percent in South America, but declined 12 percent in North America and 6 percent in China, where the Asian country’s domestic market continues to thrive.

Profitability was particularly affected by a sharp collapse in earnings at Porsche, where operating profit fell to just €90 million from more than €5 billion a year earlier.

CFO Arno Antlitz warned that the current level of profitability is not sustainable. “2025 was shaped by geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and intense competitive pressure, but the operating margin of 4.6 percent adjusted for restructuring is not sufficient in the long run,” his statement from the company’s press release read.

Volkswagen said its transition toward electric vehicles is also weighing on margins. Fully electric models now account for 22 percent of the company’s order backlog, and electric vehicle sales rose 55 percent last year, but high development and production costs continue to reduce profitability.

Looking ahead to 2026, the group warned that “challenges are expected in particular from the macroeconomic environment, uncertainties regarding restrictions in international trade and geopolitical tensions.”

It also cited “increasing competitive intensity, volatile commodity, energy and foreign exchange markets, as well as high requirements resulting from emissions-related regulations.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 02:00

Indian H1B Scammers Found Guilty In Multi-Million Dollar Fraud In Pennsylvania

Zero Hedge -

Indian H1B Scammers Found Guilty In Multi-Million Dollar Fraud In Pennsylvania

A federal jury in Philadelphia has delivered a resounding guilty verdict against two Pennsylvania brothers and a longtime associate, convicting them of masterminding one of the most elaborate and prolonged racketeering operations uncovered in recent years. The scheme, which prosecutors say drained more than $32 million from Pennsylvania's Medicaid program while exploiting vulnerable foreign workers through the H-1B visa system, spanned over a decade and involved layers of deception across multiple states.

At the center of the criminal enterprise - self-dubbed the “Savani Group” - were brothers Bhaskar Savani, 60, a trained dentist from Ambler, Pennsylvania, and Arun Savani, 58, from Blue Bell, Pennsylvania. Bhaskar controlled the group's extensive network of dental practices, while Arun oversaw finances and real estate holdings. Together, they built what U.S. Attorney David Metcalf described as a “complex web” of sham entities and fraudulent operations, amassing tens of millions through outright fraud “at every turn.”

A third defendant, Aleksandra “Ola” Radomiak, 48, of Lansdale, Pennsylvania—a longtime associate—was also convicted for her role, primarily in the healthcare fraud components.

The multi-faceted conspiracy encompassed several interlocking schemes:

  • Visa fraud and worker exploitation: The group filed numerous false H-1B visa petitions with the U.S. Department of Labor and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. These applications misrepresented job titles, duties, and other details to bring in foreign workers—most from India—who were dependent on the Savani Group for their legal status. Once employed, many were coerced into kicking back portions of their salaries and paying additional fees back to the enterprise, creating a captive, underpaid workforce.

  • Healthcare fraud against Medicaid: After the Savani Group's legitimate dental practices lost their Medicaid contracts due to prior issues, the conspirators pivoted to using nominee-owned shell entities and sham dental practices. They fraudulently billed Pennsylvania Medicaid in the names of non-treating dentists for services that were either unnecessary, never performed, or grossly inflated. This alone resulted in over $32 million in improper payments, robbing taxpayers and depriving the healthcare system of vital resources.

  • Money laundering and tax evasion: Proceeds from the fraud were funneled through a sophisticated network of financial transactions, including concealment and transactional money laundering. The group also conspired to defraud the U.S. Treasury via wire fraud tied to false tax returns.

  • Obstruction of justice: When federal investigators closed in, the conspirators actively obstructed a grand jury probe.

The convictions, handed down on March 9, 2026, after a lengthy trial, covered a sweeping array of charges under the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act and related statutes. Both brothers were found guilty of: Conspiracy to conduct a racketeering enterprise, Conspiracy to commit visa fraud and visa fraud, Conspiracy to obstruct justice, Conspiracy to commit healthcare fraud and multiple counts of healthcare fraud, Money laundering conspiracy, concealment money laundering, and transactional money laundering, Conspiracy to defraud the U.S. Treasury, Wire fraud.

Bhaskar Savani faced additional conviction for conspiracy to distribute an adulterated and misbranded medical device in interstate commerce.

After emigrating from India, Bhaskar Savani, known as “Dr. B,” earned his dental degree from Temple University in 1995 and quickly set about building his practice into an empire.

Aside from his dental practices, he became an evangelist for the importation of Indian mangoes, persuading the U.S. Department of Agriculture in 2007 to lift a 18-year ban, and expanded into real estate, becoming one of the financial backers of a proposed indoor velodrome in Valley Forge in 2006.

Meanwhile, he brought on brothers Arun, to oversee financial affairs for the businesses, and Niranjan, a fellow dentist, to help him expand his core dental businesses into an empire. -Philadelphia Inquirer

U.S. Attorney Metcalf emphasized the collaborative effort behind the case: “This sprawling investigation and prosecution meant untangling a complex web of fraudulent billing practices and sham medical entities. Our office worked with numerous state and federal partner agencies to unravel and prove the multiple healthcare fraud schemes at the heart of this operation. It’s gratifying to dismantle this crooked enterprise and hold those responsible to account. Fraud and abuse cost U.S. taxpayers billions of dollars each year and rob the healthcare system of vital resources.”

The brothers now face severe penalties: Bhaskar Savani up to 420 years in federal prison, and Arun Savani up to 415 years. Sentencing is scheduled for July 2026.

This case underscores the high stakes involved in combating sophisticated fraud rings that target public programs and exploit immigration pathways. The Savani Group's downfall highlights the determination of federal authorities to pursue even deeply entrenched operations, no matter how layered or long-running.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 23:05

FDA Unveils New Platform For Tracking Side Effects

Zero Hedge -

FDA Unveils New Platform For Tracking Side Effects

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Food and Drug Administration on March 11 made public a new, consolidated platform for tracking side effects experienced by people following receipt of vaccines and drugs.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in White Oak, Md., on June 5, 2023. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Officials are folding a number of existing platforms into the Adverse Event Monitoring System, which they are describing as a unified system that will be easier to search on.

“The FDA’s previous adverse event reporting systems were outdated and fragmented and made important data difficult to access. These clunky systems also wasted millions of taxpayer dollars and created blind spots in our postmarket surveillance of products ranging from drugs and vaccines to cosmetics,” Dr. Marty Makary, the FDA’s commissioner, said in a statement.

We’re fixing the problem through a major modernization initiative. Starting today, the FDA will have a single, intuitive adverse event platform that will better serve agency scientists, researchers, and the public.”

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has previously criticized health agencies’ reporting of adverse events following vaccination and has said that fixes were coming.

The new FDA system is already providing data previously accessible in separate places, including the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System. Other systems, such as the Center for Tobacco Products Adverse Event Reporting System, are slated to be added in May.

The FDA receives more than two million reports of adverse events and medication errors each year. Regulators use those reports to monitor the safety of approved products, including vaccines.

Utilizing seven databases for the reports was expensive and made for a poor user experience, FDA officials said. They pegged the cost of running those databases at $37 million a year.

The new system is estimated to save the agency about $120 million over the next five years.

The Adverse Event Monitoring System can be accessed here.

Users of the new system are told that the reports provide valuable information but may contain inaccurate information, and cannot provide the prevalence of events or conclusively link products with problems. Consumers also should not stop or change medications without consulting a health care professional, the FDA says in the new system’s disclaimer.

The platform is designed to provide better data through changes such as standardized reporting protocols. Artificial intelligence is being used for some of the data digitization and other work.

“Consolidating the FDA’s adverse event systems and converting to real-time publication was challenging, but made possible by a highly aggressive schedule,” Jeremy Walsh, the FDA’s chief artificial intelligence officer, said in a statement. “The team executed with perfection and delivered the biggest technical transformation in agency history. This is the new FDA.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 22:40

Iran's Hormuz Naval Mines: A Powerful Asymmetric Weapon Paralyzing Tanker Traffic

Zero Hedge -

Iran's Hormuz Naval Mines: A Powerful Asymmetric Weapon Paralyzing Tanker Traffic

Iran's asymmetric warfare in the Strait of Hormuz has shifted from kamikaze drone strikes on tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships to littering the world's most important maritime chokepoint with naval mines.

Even though much of Iran's conventional naval capability has  been severely degraded in the 12 or so days of the Operation Epic Fury campaign, IRGC forces retain asymmetric leverage in Hormuz and the Gulf region through sea mines, drones, small vessels, and missile threats.

"It's a good tool of asymmetric warfare," Jahangir E. Arasli, a senior research fellow at Baku-based Institute for Development and Diplomacy who specializes in maritime threats, told the Wall Street Journal.

"The conventional capability is wiped out, but they have this asymmetrical capability," Arasli said, noting that he was speaking in a personal capacity.

The U.S. military said earlier this week that it had severely degraded IRGC naval forces, prompting Iran to shift away from sea denial operations in the maritime chokepoint and toward creating havoc in the waterway by laying naval mines.

Congressional Research Service, a nonpartisan public policy research arm of the U.S. Congress, released a 2020 report titled "Iran's Foreign and Defense Policies" that assessed Iran has roughly 3,000 to 6,000 naval mines, with some more recent estimates putting the stockpile toward the upper end of that range.

On Thursday, President Trump told reporters that U.S. forces have struck 28 Iranian mine-laying vessels. This move to disrupt naval mine operations comes as such activity would be a nightmare for commercial ship traffic in the narrow waterway.

Tehran deployed naval mines during its conflict with Iraq in the 1980s, during the so-called "tanker war," forcing the U.S. to escort tankers and other commercial ships.

"Mines are the weapon of the poor," a former senior officer with the French navy and specialist on the subject told AFP News on condition of anonymity.

Earlier, CNN reported that Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a new message that said the Hormuz chokepoint will remain closed as a "tool of pressure."

Naval mines in the waterway, along with the growing number of ships awaiting safe passage, suggest that U.S. and allied naval escorts may soon be required if Washington wants to unclog the chokepoint. Even so, Tehran appears to retain enough asymmetric capability to keep tensions high for weeks to come.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 22:15

Will Johnny Ever Learn To Read? Pushback Against Science Of Reading Mandates

Zero Hedge -

Will Johnny Ever Learn To Read? Pushback Against Science Of Reading Mandates

Authored by Vince Bielski via RealClearInvestigations,

Half a century after the book “Why Johnny Can’t Read” sounded an alarm about the rise of illiteracy in the U.S., it has only gotten worse: A quarter of all young adults, many of them high school graduates, are now functionally illiterate. Unable to read more than basic, short sentences, their prospects in today’s information economy are bleak. 

This crisis gave rise to a movement that embraced the science of reading and produced a surprising success story in the Deep South, a region dogged by the highest rates of childhood illiteracy in the nation. State leaders and education reformers in Mississippi and Louisiana led a remarkable improvement in elementary reading scores that now rank among the highest in the nation. 

The turnaround was a long slog, requiring a heavy hand from the state to win buy-in for a wholesale transformation of curricula, teaching methods, accountability, and more. Former state education chief Carey Wright called it the “Mississippi Marathon.” One of the biggest questions in public education now is whether the southern surge can spread nationwide, turning millions of struggling students into proficient readers with a brighter future. 

But such a top-down approach is running into resistance, particularly in blue states like New York and Illinois, where strong teachers’ unions have fought to preserve local control over schools. And nowhere is the political battle over who runs the classroom more pronounced than in Massachusetts, which has long boasted the nation’s best public schools. 

Massachusetts’ governor is expected to sign a literacy bill in the coming months, making it one of about a dozen states to mandate adoption of curricula based on the science of reading in elementary grades. Laws in another 30 states merely encourage its use. Although these laws suggest a big step forward for the nation, Massachusetts illustrates the challenges ahead in some states – many of the educators responsible for implementing the mandated reforms see them as an affront to local control of classrooms.

The influential Massachusetts Teachers Association (MTA) led the campaign against the legislation, suffering a rare defeat at the statehouse. At least 300 superintendents, principals, and teachers in about 40 Massachusetts districts also signed a letter opposing the mandate, arguing that local educators know what’s best for students. 

The pushback in Massachusetts raises concerns among advocates about whether the reforms, especially the evidence-based curriculum and teacher training, will be fully implemented across the state. ExcelinEd, an advocacy group chaired by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, has identified many science of reading policies, big and small, that have helped states boost literacy rates. The group’s research found that the difference between states with the biggest reading gains and those that floundered boils down to how thoroughly they implemented most of the reforms.

We know what works, and we have state exemplars like Mississippi, Louisiana and Florida that have actually done it,” said ExcelinEd Senior Policy Fellow Christy Hovanetz. “So unless more states are willing to do the hard work, we’re not going to see improved outcomes for our kids. And that severely impacts our economic prosperity and future. So yes, I’m concerned.”

State Versus Local Control

In the U.S., most school districts call the shots regarding the curriculum – the crucial teaching materials that determine how kids are taught. Although research shows that the quality of curricula makes a big difference in whether Johnny and Jill learn to read, this area of public education remains largely unregulated by most states, leaving 13,000 districts to pick instructional materials based on convenience, corporate marketing, or price if not quality. And nobody knows what curricula most districts use since only six states require such disclosure, according to Karen Vaites of the Curriculum Insight Project. 

Science of reading advocates say local control over curricula isn’t working. Consider fourth graders, about the age when a child’s reading skills strongly predict their future academic success or failure. In 2024, 40% of fourth graders across the nation scored below the Basic level, up from 34% in 2019 and nearly matching levels in 1992, according to the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), the gold standard in testing. These students have trouble reading aloud, recognizing and decoding many grade-level words, and thus comprehending the meaning of text. They will struggle in all their classes through high school if they aren’t reading well in elementary school. 

States like Massachusetts are responding with mandates that require districts to pick from a menu of approved curricula backed by research showing their effectiveness. The Massachusetts Teachers Association doesn’t dispute that there’s a literacy crisis. But the union opposed the mandate, casting it as a form of government overreach in complex curricular matters best left to trained educators. 

“Our members have opposed legislated curriculum mandates for literacy education because they know losing flexibility to do their jobs and restricting their professional judgement inevitably means some students will continue to struggle with learning to read and write,” MTA President Max Page and Vice President Deb McCarthy said in a statement to RealClearInvestigations. “The law in Massachusetts will cost hundreds of millions of dollars to implement, and that money would be better spent on hiring staff and increasing professional development opportunities for educators.”

The union says it supports the voluntary adoption of evidence-based curricula by districts, which has been spurred on by grants from programs like Literacy Launch. Advocates estimate that about half of the state’s districts are experimenting with or rolling out higher-quality curricula. The other half is still using less-effective instructional materials, including Lucy Calkin’s popular Units of Study, which is based on the principles of a teaching strategy called Balanced Literacy. 

Failed Reform Efforts

Balanced Literacy emerged during the “reading wars” of the 1990s in an attempt to address the nation’s literacy decline. At the time, the prominent approach to instruction, called Whole Language, required students to learn words and sentences by looking at simple picture books as they were read aloud, and if needed, guess at pronunciation and meaning by the story’s context and images. Experts hoped that this loosely structured method would inspire a love of reading. 

While it worked for some students, critics said the lack of any explicit instruction in methods to decode words left many students struggling. Balanced Literacy came about as a compromise, adding a dash of phonics to help these students sound out words while keeping the fundamentals of the Whole Language strategy. 

De’Shawn Washington, winner of the 2024 Teacher of the Year award in Massachusetts, saw the damage done to his elementary students from Balanced Literacy’s Units of Study. In his Boston and Lexington classrooms, students who were already proficient readers advanced at a fast clip. But most students, who were one or two grade levels behind because they didn’t have exposure to reading at home or suffered from a disability, learned at a much slower pace, if at all. A few of his third graders were unable to read books for kindergarteners or write their names. Washington did his best to supplement Units of Study with more phonics, but it wasn’t much help.

“The struggling readers tended to get left behind, and the disparity between them and the proficient readers widened,” said Washington, whose experience turned him into an advocate of Massachusetts’s mandate. 

Calkins, a professor at Columbia, has publicly acknowledged her curriculum’s shortcomings. Yet Units of Study remains entrenched in more than two dozen districts in Massachusetts, which are part of the “widespread” resistance to literacy reforms, including in Boston Public Schools, says Darci Burns, executive director of HILL for Literacy, which trains Massachusetts teachers in evidence-based literacy practices. 

Burns says many of the gatekeepers of instructional materials, such as assistant superintendents and directors of curriculum, were trained to use Balanced Literacy and remain wedded to it like a religion. Teachers like its unscripted approach, giving them more freedom. Burns predicts they will try to skirt the mandate rather than support it. 

“These districts might adopt a reading program that’s the most aligned with Balanced Literacy,” Burns told RCI. “And then they’ll go through the motions, but they won’t really do it.”

The Science of Reading

In 2000, a National Reading Panel of top experts was set up to distill what several hundred gold-standard studies revealed about literacy instruction. Although the panel didn’t explicitly reject Balance Literacy, it found that a more structured approach to instruction in five areas was the most effective: phonemic awareness (learning word sounds), phonics (matching sounds to letters), fluency (reading aloud), vocabulary (learning word meanings), and comprehension (gleaning the meaning of text). 

The science of reading movement was built on these five pillars, with Massachusetts and other states incorporating them into legislation. Although more recent research has brought new insights – leading scholar Louisa Moats says language skills need much more emphasis in the five pillars – they remain the best approach to improved literacy. 

Yet two decades after the panel’s findings, most universities still haven’t read the memo. Signaling the challenges of wholesale reform, only a quarter of teacher preparation programs cover all five pillars, denying most instructors the training they need to be effective. 

This leaves educators in an unusual position – unlike most professionals, they are not trained in, and sometimes reject, the best practices of their trade. It’s another knock on the relevancy of higher education that Massachusetts and other states are now addressing by requiring teacher preparation to include the five pillars. 

Most teachers don’t know the science of reading – that the point of phonemic awareness is to facilitate word recognition with an alphabetic writing system, or that the primary comprehension enabler is vocabulary,” said Moats. “I don’t want my grandkids in a classroom where the teacher has the autonomy to do whatever the hell she wants because I have seen the results of that.”

The five pillars may be on solid footing, but the curricula based on them are a work in progress. Some are comprehensive, others are too narrowly focused on the foundational skills like phonics and don’t include enough book reading and writing; some don’t focus enough on building students’ knowledge about subjects like history and science, which is key to reading comprehension; some haven’t been around long enough to have a proven track record. 

States with new literacy laws are not all doing a good job of vetting curricula to ensure they give districts the strongest options, says Vaites of the Curriculum Insight Project. The varying quality of the curricula has given ammunition to critics of mandates, like Superintendent Julie Hackett, whose affluent Lexington district in Massachusetts uses Units of Study. “We’ve done some looking into results around districts that have adopted new curricula and we are not seeing the results that would necessarily justify” spending up to $1 million to buy new instructional materials, Hackett said at an MTA event.

Vaites wrote that Hackett’s concerns are overblown. Although Massachusetts’ current list isn’t perfect, it does offer comprehensive programs covering the five pillars with an emphasis on reading books and building knowledge.

“Most of the curricula on Massachusetts’s list is pretty good, and now with the mandate, most people think that state leaders are savvy enough to make it even better,” Vaites told RCI.

Arduous Training

Southern states found that a new curriculum isn’t worth much unless teachers are trained to master it. Washington, the former teacher, says adopting a new curriculum is a lot of work, and classes and coaching gives teachers more confidence about handling such a big transition, convincing them that the science of reading is not just another education fad. 

“The training shifts the conversation away from resistance because teachers realize they are not going into this new situation blind and that there’s a big investment being made to improve the profession,” Washington said. 

The bills in Massachusetts offer training to all teachers rather than requiring it, as 18 other states, including Louisiana, have done, according to ExcelinEd’s literacy policy tracker. If that’s a concession to opponents, so is the decision by Massachusetts lawmakers not to adopt another reform that has proven effective in Louisiana, Mississippi, and other states: retaining third graders who can’t read at or near grade level from promotion. It’s a highly controversial policy that parents almost always oppose despite the long-term literacy benefits, according to a study of Mississippi that found retention “led to substantially higher ELA scores in sixth grade.”

In all, ExcelinEd has identified 18 reforms, including dyslexia screening and parental notification of reading problems, that the most successful states have implemented. Given the heavy lift, it’s not surprising that some states have stumbled. 

Of the 15 states that adopted most of the 18 policies by 2019, 10 of them outpaced the national average in fourth-grade NAEP reading scores by 2024, with Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida, and South Carolina far out in front, according to Hovanetz, the policy fellow. These 10 states illustrate the effectiveness of the reforms.

But test scores in four of the 15 states declined more than the nation’s did, and Michigan tied, showing the difficulty of implementing the reforms. Among the backsliding states, Hovanetz says, New Mexico didn’t train and deploy all of its reading coaches, and Oklahoma and North Carolina ended their third-grade retention policy. 

States get a whole bunch of constituent calls saying, ‘It’s not fair you’re retaining my kid.’ Then they back off of the policy and lose any momentum that they had gained,” says Hovanetz, a former Florida education official. 

Minnesota illustrates how things can go wrong when districts are encouraged, rather than mandated, to adopt evidence-based curricula and teacher training. “Some teachers took the training, not everyone did, and when they went back to their schools, teachers didn’t have the instructional materials to support what they learned in training, and they might not have had a leader at the school to support them," Hovanetz said. “So Minnesota probably wasted a whole lot of money.”

A number of other states haven’t bothered to pass meaningful science-of-reading laws. They include both liberal states like Washington and Illinois and conservative states like Montana and Maine.

In Massachusetts, a conference committee is reconciling the two bills, with the rollout of reforms set for 2027. The Senate bill requires districts to regularly assess K-3 students’ reading abilities and create improvement plans for those who score significantly below grade level. It’s a measure of accountability that advocates hope will produce positive results in a state that’s moving backwards in literacy on the NAEP test. 

In another concession to opponents of the mandate, lawmakers gave districts a narrow escape hatch. They can apply for a waiver from the mandate if their alternative curriculum is backed by research evidence. While the waiver could open the door to the adoption of Calkin’s revised Units of Study, it will have to pass muster with the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education.

Mary Tamer, who convened the Mass Reads coalition of 40 education groups to support the legislation that she helped write, is bullish about the adoption of reforms. Despite the opposition, she says the political momentum, underscored by the unanimous votes for the literacy bills in both the House and Senate, is strong enough to compel most districts to buy in.

Our expectation is that districts will move toward evidence-based instruction as quickly as they can because it’s proven to teach children how to read,” she said. “And that is our goal here.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 21:50

Eric Swalwell Rents Room Linked To Former Staffer To Claim California Residency

Zero Hedge -

Eric Swalwell Rents Room Linked To Former Staffer To Claim California Residency

Rep. Eric Swalwell has primarily been living in Washington, D.C. for years, and now that he’s running for governor of California, he’s hit a snag over residency. 

According to reports, Swalwell is renting a single room in a home in the eastern Bay Area that’s occupied by a family of three to claim residency in the state. Public records show it’s a three-bedroom, 1,350-square-foot home owned by Nicolas and Kristina Mrzywka. It is unlikely that Swalwell has ever truly lived there. And now, one of his Democratic primary rivals is calling him out on it.

“The alleged discovery of Swalwell’s Livermore rental came from the congressman’s top Democratic opponent, billionaire Tom Steyer,” reports the New York Post. “Steyer says Swalwell appears to ‘live in California on paper only’ as the governor race heats up, ‘making him unlikely to meet the basic residency requirements to run for Governor.’

Ryan Hughes, Steyer’s attorney, is now calling on Secretary of State Shirley Weber to “enforce a dormant residency requirement in the governor’s race.” Hughes also encouraged Weber to “allow for robust legal proceedings as to whether Swalwell is eligible to serve as Governor,” which could be problematic when dealing with the Trump administration.

“If elected, questions of legitimacy would hang over Swalwell, allowing the Trump Administration to sow doubt, exploit the ambiguity, and advance its perverse agendas,” Hughes wrote. “The Trump Administration could question Swalwell’s legitimacy as Governor and, therefore, imperil California’s receipt of federal funds, the state’s ability to deploy the California National Guard, and act in emergencies.”

Why is Swalwell renting that particular room? Kristina Mrzywka is the sister of Stephanie Sbranti, the wife of Tim Sbranti, Swalwell's ex-deputy chief of staff and district director from 2015 to 2018, whom Hughes described as Swalwell’s “longtime mentor who helped introduce him to politics.”

Deed searches turn up no trace of ownership for Swalwell in Livermore. Meanwhile, a 2022 deed of trust lists him as the buyer of a house in Washington, D.C., which he claimed as his primary residence.

In an interview, Sbranti said he suggested Swalwell rent a room in the Livermore home “as a way to maintain an affordable base in an expensive district, ” the Sacramento Bee reported.

In the letter, Hughes stated that at least since 2018 the Secretary of State’s office “has taken the legal position that the five-year residency requirement is unconstitutional under the U.S. Constitution.”

In response, a declaration was filed on March 6 by Swalwell’s attorneys from his landlord Mrzywka.

In it she states that “under penalty of perjury” that “I entered a lease agreement with Eric and Brittany Swalwell in June 2017 for a property that I own in Livermore, California. Mr. and Mrs. Swalwell has leased the property from me since June 2017.”

Democrat Members of Congress from California are also sticking up for Swalwell.

“Like all members of the California congressional delegation, we work and live both in this great state and in Washington, DC, representing our constituents in Congress,” their joint statement reads. “Tom Steyer's insinuation that there is something wrong with that undermines us all. Steyer is pushing a bogus residency conspiracy that originated in MAGA circles at Donald Trump's bidding.”

The statement continued, “Eric Swalwell has spent his entire career fighting for California families - both in his district, and in our nation's Capitol. We have endorsed our colleague so he can continue this important work of protecting Californians from Trump and making the Golden State more affordable.”

The statement was signed by Reps. Jimmy Gomez, Adam Gray, Zoe Lofgren, Mike Thompson, Doris Matsui, Raul Ruiz, Ted Lieu, Lou Correa, Nanette Barragán, Jimmy Panetta, and Kevin Mullin

Steyer's campaign isn’t buying it.

 "With so much at stake in this election and this administration making anti-democratic moves all across the country, we hope that the Congressman can resolve this issue to avoid Donald Trump or Republican extremists exploiting it down the line or creating confusion for voters later in the process." 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 21:25

Paging Nostradamus: You Have A Margin Call

Zero Hedge -

Paging Nostradamus: You Have A Margin Call

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

If conditions change beneath the surface, the folks behind the curtain will be powerless to do anything but make it worse.

This just in: predicting is hard, especially about the future. One solution is ambiguity: couch predictions in poetic allusions that are open to interpretation.

What's hard is making an unambiguous prediction that turn out to be correct. Recency bias often trips us up, as making predictions based on projecting the recent past seems to work well until trends and dynamics change. But due to recency bias, we tend to ignore these signals and focus on whatever supports our belief that the future will be a continuation of the recent past.

If we live long enough to experience several epochal transitions, we start noticing longer-term patterns. One such pattern that attracts little attention is that recessions tend not to replicate the previous recession; they tend to follow the recession before.

So the recession we're now entering won't track the 2008-09 recession, it will likely track either The 1991 recession--shallow and brief--or the previous "real recessions" of 1980-83 or 1973-75.

The recession of 2008-09 was characterized by these dynamics:

1. The price of oil spiked, but fell rapidly back to its previous range.

2. Low inflation generated by the massive deflationary impact of China's expansion of low-cost manufacturing and credit expansion enabled the Federal Reserve to flood the financial system with trillions of dollars, pinning interest rates to zero (ZIRP--zero interest rate policy).

3. Low inflation enabled authorities to "run the economy hot" with cheap, abundant credit that inflated credit-asset bubbles in real estate, stocks and other assets, generating a "wealth effect" in the top 10% who own the majority of the assets.

4. The Fed's balance sheet and federal debt were both modest when measured by GDP, and so these could be expanded with little downside, as these acted as buffers.

The 1991 recession was trigged by a spike in oil prices and risk-off reaction to the first Gulf War (Desert Storm). Once oil prices fell, the impact on interest rates, asset valuations, unemployment, etc. were, by historical standards, mild.

The 1973-75 and 1980-83 recessions were different--stagflationary confluences of embedded inflation generated by price shocks and "running the economy hot." Over time, interest rates (bond yields) tend to track the cost of oil, as the entire economy rests on a foundation of energy.

Adjusted for inflation, oil leaped to a new level in the "oil shock" of 1973-74, triggering a reset of the economy already reeling from higher inflation, foreign competition and sagging productivity.

As the supergiant oil fields discovered in the 1960s started producing at scale in the 1980s, the inflation-adjusted price of oil fell, and remained at historically modest levels interrupted by occasional short-lived spikes (Desert Storm, invasion of Ukraine, etc.).

In the 1970s, energy plateaued at a higher cost level. This--along with other factors--contributed to embedding higher costs, i.e. inflation, that were exacerbated by "running the economy hot," i.e. assuming inflation would magically decline due to "growth."

Instead, inflation became self-reinforcing, threatening to cripple the economy. The only real solution was pushing interest rates high enough to suppress credit expansion, which in an economy dependent on ever-expanding credit, pushed the economy into a deep recession.

Assets fell, valuations stagnated, unemployment soared, credit tightened, and the "easy money" fixes of the past were no longer the solution, they were the problem.

Here we see the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, a proxy of interest rates:

Here is the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), a proxy of the stock market, adjusted for inflation: by the time the Dow regained the magic 1,000 level in 1982, it had lost 2/3rds of its real (inflation-adjusted) value from its 1966 1,000 peak.

We have succumbed to the illusory belief that "the powers behind the curtain" can--and will--always save us from a market crash and "real recession." What history teaches us is this can only happen in a very specific set of conditions which no longer apply: if oil costs plateau at a higher level, inflation becomes self-reinforcing, credit expansion leads to extremes of risk and productivity remains stagnant, then those behind the curtain will only make the situation worse by lowering interest rates and "running it hot."

At that point, everyone predicting a continuation of the past 18 years will be reaping their reward for being wrong: a margin call in a bidless market. Predicting is hard, but it's good to keep an open mind and avoid recency bias. If conditions change beneath the surface, the folks behind the curtain will be powerless to do anything but make it worse.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 21:00

Senate Republicans On Iran War Ending: Sooner The Better

Zero Hedge -

Senate Republicans On Iran War Ending: Sooner The Better

The ongoing U.S. military operation against Iran, which began February 28th with strikes aimed at destroying Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missile capabilities, navy, and other strategic assets, has prompted a range of reactions from Republican senators. While most GOP lawmakers initially supported President Trump's actions - evidenced by the Senate's largely party-line vote on March 4th to block a bipartisan war powers resolution that would have curtailed or required congressional approval for the conflict - several prominent voices have emphasized the need for a swift conclusion rather than a prolonged engagement.

Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO), a key Trump ally, became one of the most vocal advocates for an early exit during his appearance on Jesse Watters Primetime on Tuesday. Hawley urged the president to "declare victory" and withdraw U.S. forces, arguing that core objectives have already been met.

Watters: Do you think the President is going to look for an off-ramp or keep going?

Hawley: I think he [Trump] has achieved his objectives the way that he’s laid them out… What is there, really, that’s left to do that we haven’t already done?

We have totally destroyed, forever, their nuclear program. We have destroyed their ballistic missiles. We have destroyed their navy. This has been a total success… I think we ought to say to our heroes, ‘Thank you for a job well done.’ This has been absolutely amazing. It’s been amazing. It’s been historic. And now it’s time to declare victory.

Watch: 

This positioned Hawley as the first prominent Trump-aligned senator to publicly push for an end in this manner. Senator Rand Paul (R-Ky.), known for his non-interventionist stance, has been the other GOP senator openly critical or unsupportive - opposing the operation from the outset and was the lone Republican to vote in favor of the war powers resolution to limit it.

Hawley is joined by at least two other GOP senators in expressing preferences for a short, decisive campaign rather than an extended one. In comments to ZeroHedge on Wednesday:

  • Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) stated, "Nobody wants that. The President doesn’t. I certainly don’t," emphasizing a shared desire to wrap up quickly. He expressed trust in Trump but highlighted concerns about a prolonged conflict's potential effects on the 2026 midterm elections.
  • Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), often seen as more establishment-oriented and hawkish on issues like Ukraine aid, agreed on avoiding a "quagmire." When asked about favoring a short-term operation, she replied, "Oh yeah," adding that Trump's mentioned timeline of "four to five weeks... sounds like a good period of time."

These sentiments reflect a broader GOP preference for avoiding "forever wars," consistent with Trump's campaign rhetoric, even as broader Republican support remains strong for the strikes themselves. No widespread pushback or calls for indefinite continuation appear from other senators in available reporting, though some like Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) have estimated the campaign lasting "a few weeks" with focused objectives like degrading missile capabilities.

Meanwhile, the conflict's economic ripple effects continue, with Brent crude settling above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022. Analysts at JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have warned that sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive prices to $150 per barrel, heightening pressure for a rapid resolution.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 20:35

US Court Clears State Medicaid Ban On Transgender Surgeries For Adults

Zero Hedge -

US Court Clears State Medicaid Ban On Transgender Surgeries For Adults

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

West Virginia’s ban on Medicaid coverage of surgical procedures for people with gender dysphoria is legal, a federal court ruled on March 10.

A sign in support of Medicaid rests in a walking device on the House steps of the U.S. Capitol in Washington on April 27, 2025. Bryan Dozier/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

A 2025 U.S. Supreme Court decision means the ban does not violate the U.S. Constitution’s Equal Protection Clause or the Affordable Care Act, U.S. Circuit Judge Julius Richardson, writing for a unanimous panel of judges on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 4th Circuit, said in a 35-page decision.

West Virginia’s Medicaid plan excludes a number of treatments and procedures, including “infertility services” and “sex changes.”

People who sued over the ban said they were being discriminated against, in part because of the Equal Protection Clause, which says that states must not deny people equal protection under the law.

To prevail on the equal protection claim, Plaintiffs must first show that the challenged Exclusion discriminates because of sex or transgender status. But they fail to make this showing,” Richardson said.

That’s because the exclusion is based on medical diagnosis, he said.

“West Virginia’s plan does not single out people of a particular sex or transgender status. Rather, the State determines which diagnoses qualify based on the risks it is willing to cover,” the judge said. “Here, West Virginia chose to cover alterations of a person’s breasts or genitalia only if the person experiences physical injury, disease, or congenital absence of genitalia.”

Medicaid is a health insurance program for low-income people run by the U.S. and state governments. About half of U.S. states ban or limit Medicaid coverage for transgender procedures. A number of lawsuits have been filed over the restrictions.

The new decision cited a 2025 ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court that upheld a Tennessee law barring transgender procedures and drugs for minors.

A federal judge ruled against the West Virginia ban in 2022, and the full 4th Circuit struck down the law in 2024.

In 2025, Supreme Court justices told the appeals court to reconsider the prohibition in light of its ruling on the Tennessee statute.

West Virginia officials also offered legitimate reasons for the policy, including concerns about the medical necessity of transgender surgeries, the appeals court panel ruled.

This is a big win for West Virginia taxpayers who pay the bill for Medicaid—a much needed and utilized program,“ West Virginia Attorney General JB McCuskey said in a statement. ”As good stewards of taxpayer dollars, the state should not be footing the bill for unproven, non-essential medical procedures.”

Lambda Legal, which is representing plaintiffs in the case, did not return a request for comment by the time of publication.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 20:10

Ben Affleck Once Criticized AI, Now Netflix Is Buying His AI Startup For $600 Million

Zero Hedge -

Ben Affleck Once Criticized AI, Now Netflix Is Buying His AI Startup For $600 Million

Ben Affleck—who has previously warned about the risks artificial intelligence poses to Hollywood—has sold his own AI filmmaking startup to Netflix in a deal that could reach $600 million, according to Bloomberg.

The cash portion of the acquisition is smaller, with additional payments tied to performance targets, but it still ranks among the largest AI-focused deals by a major studio.

The startup, InterPositive, developed software designed to help directors edit footage after filming, such as removing stray objects or changing elements in the background. The tools are intended to work with existing film rather than generate entirely new content. Director David Fincher has already used the technology on an upcoming movie starring Brad Pitt.

Netflix’s purchase highlights how studios are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence to streamline production and reduce costs. Rivals such as Amazon and The Walt Disney Company are also exploring AI tools for film and television development.

Bloomberg writes that Affleck built InterPositive with backing from RedBird Capital Partners and initially kept the project quiet before seeking investors in 2025. He has argued the technology should function as a controlled filmmaking aid: the system trains only on footage from a specific film and doesn’t scrape outside movies or generate new works independently.

For Netflix, which has historically favored building technology internally over large acquisitions, the purchase represents a rare buyout aimed at strengthening its in-house AI capabilities for movie and TV production.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 19:45

Adobe Plunges To 7 Year Low On CEO Resignation, Muted Forecast

Zero Hedge -

Adobe Plunges To 7 Year Low On CEO Resignation, Muted Forecast

Troubled SaaS icon Adobe tumbled after hours, sending its stock to 7 year lows after the company announced that CEO Shantanu Narayen will resign from the creative software giant amid deep skepticism about the company’s ability to survive and thrive in the AI era. Narayen had served as CEO of the company for 18 years, and will remain in the position until a successor has been appointed, Adobe said Thursday in a statement. He will stay on as board chairman.

The CEO change “adds questions around strategic continuity, capital allocation priorities, and pace of innovation,” Grace Harmon, an analyst at Emarketer, said in an email. “Investors will likely focus on whether incoming leadership maintains a balance between disciplined execution and aggressive AI investment, especially as competition in creative and enterprise AI intensifies.”

The company also gave a sales forecast for the current quarter that just topped estimates, but failed to ease investor fears that the software maker is being left behind by new competitors.

In the fiscal first quarter, revenue increased 12% to $6.4 billion, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $6.28 billion. Adjusted earnings were $6.06 a share in the period, which ended Feb. 27. The average projection was $5.88 a share.

Annual recurring revenue for the company’s AI-first products such as Firefly more than tripled compared to the same period last year, Narayen said in a script prepared for a conference call scheduled after the results. In September, Adobe said sales from these products exceeded $250 million.

“We are focused on selecting the right leader for this next exciting chapter of the company’s growth and are grateful for Shantanu’s continued leadership as CEO to ensure a smooth transition,” said Frank Calderoni, the board’s lead independent director, who will oversee the search for Narayen’s successor.

For the quarter ending in May, the company expects revenue to be $6.43BN - $6.48BN, vs a conservative estimate of $6.43BN. Profit, excluding some items, will be $5.80 to $5.85 a share, compared with an average projection of $5.70. 

The maker of creative software such as Photoshop is among a group of application software makers, including Salesforce and Atlassian that are seen as struggling to win new customers in the face of much cheaper AI upstarts. Adobe has worked to weave artificial intelligence tools through its creative and marketing software, and offers its own range of AI models meant to generate imagery that doesn’t carry copyright risks in an effort to keep its massive market share. 

“Sentiment is constrained by long-term AI fears, current competitive pressures, revenue deceleration, and margin headwinds from AI investments,” wrote Brent Thill, an analyst at Jefferies, in a note ahead of earnings.

The shares fell about 6% in extended trading after closing at $269.78 in New York. The stock has declined about 23% this year, and is about to drop the lowest level since 2019. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 17:02

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