Apollo Private Credit Fund Is Latest To Gate Investors As KKR Fund Gets Junked By Moody's

Amid the ongoing fracturing of the private credit industry, which after enjoying years of stable, levered growth (and when it ran out of institutional greater fools, it aimed lower, toward HNWs and retail) finally hit a brick wall thanks to the Claude-inspired SaaSpocalypse, which has led to a historic surge in redemption requests across the biggest (and certainly smallest) names in the industry, last week we said that debt funds managed by powerhouse firms including Blackstone, BlackRock, Cliffwater, Morgan Stanley and Monroe Capital have agreed to honor only 70% of the $10.1bn of redemption requests they have faced, according to FT calculations, as fund after fund is gating investors.

We also said that the number of both redemptions and gates is expected to spike over the coming weeks, as funds managed by Ares Management, Apollo Global, Blue Owl, Oaktree and Goldman Sachs tally up how many of their investors are heading for the exits, as discussed here.

According to the above table, Apollo's private credit fund, APODS, was supposed to report its Q1 outflow in early May. However, the surge in redemptions was so big the private equity giant decided not to wait that long, and according to Bloomberg, Apollo Global Management has joined a growing number of its peers in gating redemptions from one of its largest non-traded private credit funds for retail investors, becoming the latest alternative asset manager to be flooded by a surge in such requests.

The $25 billion business development company, Apollo Debt Solutions (APODS), capped withdrawals at 5% of outstanding shares Monday after clients sought to redeem 11.2%, according to a shareholder letter seen by Bloomberg, thus gating more than half of the redemption requests. 

"Periods of complexity and uncertainty can create some of the most attractive investment opportunities, but only for those with the flexibility to act decisively,” the firm said, adding that “while the market has repriced risk, the fundamentals of the fund’s underlying borrowers remain strong."

The firm expects the granted redemptions to amount to roughly $730 million of gross outflows for the first quarter, offsetting the roughly $724 million of inflows for the period. Apollo Debt Solutions has been building its reserves in the past month, doubling the size of one credit line to $1 billion and signing a new $500 million facility.

What's worse is Apollo has effectively pre-gated next quarter's redemption requests, saying that it intends to stick to the same cap next quarter as it balances “the interests of shareholders seeking liquidity with those who choose to remain invested,” it said in the letter, noting that challenging times can benefit investors in the long run.

With redeeming investors receiving just 45% of their capital, Apollo Debt Solutions is returning less cash to clients than some of its peers that capped withdrawals. As we reported previously, while BlackRock also capped redemptions from its $26 billion non-traded BDC at a pre-set 5% earlier this month, investors had "only" requested 9.3% of their shares. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s North Haven Private Income Fund’s pro-rated redemptions were granted at a similar rate to Apollo’s.

It seems that with every passing week, after Blue Owl started the private credit firesale a month ago, more investors are seeking to return their capital... and more are being gated. 

As regular readers are aware, while private credit funds typically limit redemptions to 5% of outstanding shares, the recent bank run redemption scramble among retail investors has tested firms’ flexibility. Some firms such as Blackstone opted to exceed the cap - and fund the shortfall out of the partners' own pocket - in the hopes of quelling investor panic and stanching further outflows. That valiant effort failed after Blackstone's peers such as Blackrock, Cliffwater and Morgan Stanley gated their own investors. 

Apollo, which has been pushing for more transparency in private markets, also said Monday that Apollo Debt Solutions had returned 1% over the past three months. At the same time, its net asset value dipped by 1.2% over the same period. Last night we reported that the largest private credit fund, Blackstone's BCRED, reported its first monthly decline since September 2022. 

Meanwhile, in related news, late on Monday a private credit fund jointly run by Future Standard and KKR was the first to get junked, losing one of its investment-grade ratings, a rare occurrence in the $1.8 trillion private credit market, and one which will certainly result in higher borrowing costs for the $14 billion investment vehicle.

Moody’s Ratings lowered its assessment of FS KKR Capital Corp. to Ba1, or one level into junk, because of what it described as “continued asset quality challenges” that have hurt profitability and the value of the fund’s portfolio relative to peers, the credit grader said in a statement on Monday.

The fund’s non-accrual rate, which measures soured loans, rose to 5.5% of total investments as of the end of last year, one of the highest percentages among peers. It also expressed concern over other investments not classified as non-accrual that have have suffered significant markdowns, including a loan to software company Medallia.

The rating agency also called out FSK’s higher proportion of payment-in-kind income relative to peers, which it said is a sign of “weaker earnings quality.” PIK provisions allow borrowers to pay interest by accumulating additional debt instead of paying out cash.   

That said, the ratings firm said the fund is “well positioned” from a liquidity perspective, with about $2.5 billion available after repaying a $1 billion note earlier this year.

“FSK remains well positioned despite the decision,” a spokesperson for the fund, referring to its stock-exchange ticker, said in an emailed statement. “It has a strong, well‑laddered liability structure with no 2026 unsecured maturities and limited near‑term maturities, enabling us to continue supporting our portfolio companies and navigate the current market environment.”

And now it's junk.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 21:50

Bovard: The Late Robert Mueller, Bill Of Rights Executioner

Authored by Jim Bovard

Obituaries on eminent Washingtonians usually omit the dreadful precedents they set that will vex Americans long after their death. Not this piece.

Former FBI director Robert Mueller died last week at the age of 81. The New York Times eulogized him as a “button-down, lockjawed, rock-ribbed exemplar of a vanishing caste.” In reality, Mueller was simply a twenty-first century version of J. Edgar Hoover, trampling the Constitution and seizing new power on any pretext.

Mueller took over the FBI one week before the 9/11 attacks and he was worse than clueless afterwards. On September 14, 2011, Mueller declared, “The fact that there were a number of individuals that happened to have received training at flight schools here is news, quite obviously. If we had understood that to be the case, we would have—perhaps one could have averted this.” Three days later, Mueller announced, “There were no warning signs that I’m aware of that would indicate this type of operation in the country.” His protestations helped the W. Bush administration railroad the Patriot Act through Congress, vastly expanding the FBI’s prerogatives to vacuum up Americans’ personal information.

Photo by Jim Bovard while covering the 2018 Women’s March in Washington.

Deceit helped capture those intrusive new prerogatives. The Bush administration suppressed until the following May the news that FBI agents in Phoenix and Minneapolis had warned FBI headquarters of suspicious Arabs in flight training programs prior to 9/11. A House-Senate Joint Intelligence Committee analysis concluded that FBI incompetence and negligence “contributed to the United States becoming, in effect, a sanctuary for radical terrorists.” FBI blundering spurred The Wall Street Journal to call for Mueller’s resignation, while a New York Times headline warned: “Lawmakers Say Misstatements Cloud F.B.I. Chief’s Credibility.”

But the FBI was off and running. Thanks to the Patriot Act, the FBI increased by a hundredfold—up to 50,000 a year—the number of National Security Letters (NSLs) it issued to citizens, business, and nonprofit organizations, and recipients were prohibited from disclosing that their data had been raided. NSLs entitle the FBI to seize records that reveal “where a person makes and spends money, with whom he lives and lived before, how much he gambles, what he buys online, what he pawns and borrows, where he travels, how he invests, what he searches for and reads on the Web, and who telephones or e-mails him at home and at work,” The Washington Post noted. The FBI can lasso thousands of people’s records with a single NSL—regardless of the Fourth Amendment’s prohibition of unreasonable warrantless searches.

The FBI greatly understated the number of NSLs it was issuing and denied that abuses had occurred, thereby helping sway Congress to renew the Patriot Act in 2006. The following year, an Inspector General report revealed that FBI agents may have recklessly issued thousands of illegal NSLs. Shortly after that report was released, federal judge Victor Marrero denounced the NSL process as “the legislative equivalent of breaking and entering, with an ominous free pass to the hijacking of constitutional values.”

Rather than arresting FBI agents who broke the law, Mueller created a new FBI Office of Integrity and Compliance. The Electronic Freedom Foundation, after winning lawsuits to garner FBI reports to a federal oversight board, concluded that the FBI may have committed “tens of thousands” of violations of federal law, regulations, or Executive Orders between 2001 and 2008.

President George W. Bush, scorning a unanimous 1972 Supreme Court ruling, decided he was entitled to impose warrantless wiretaps on Americans. At an April 2005 Senate hearing, Senator Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) asked Mueller, “Can the National Security Agency, the great electronic snooper, spy on the American people?” Mueller replied, “I would say generally, they are not allowed to spy or to gather information on American citizens.”

Mueller presumably knew his answer was at least misleading if not blatantly deceptive. Nearly nine months later, The New York Times revealed that Bush had unleashed NSA to illegally wiretap up to five hundred people within the United States at any given time and peruse millions of other Americans’ emails. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales responded to the uproar by asserting that “the president has the inherent authority” to order such wiretaps. Mueller had no trouble with that dictatorial doctrine—even though the same claim spurred one of the articles of impeachment crafted against President Richard Nixon.

Mueller’s biggest coup against privacy occurred with Section 215 of the Patriot Act, which entitles the FBI to demand “business records” that are “relevant” to a terrorism or espionage investigation. In 2011 testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee, Mueller “suggested the FBI interpreted (Section 215) narrowly and used it sparingly,” the ACLU noted. But Mueller was the point man for the Bush administration’s bizarre 2006 decision (perpetuated by Barack Obama) that all Americans’ telephone records were “relevant” to terrorism investigations. Several times a year, Mueller signed orders to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, swaying it to continually renew its order compelling telephone companies to deliver all their calling records (including time, duration, and location of calls) to the National Security Agency.

On June 5, 2013, leaks from former NSA contractor Edward Snowden blew the lid off this surveillance regime. Federal judge Richard Leon slammed that records roundup as “almost Orwellian…I cannot imagine a more indiscriminate and arbitrary invasion than this systematic and high-tech collection and retention of personal data on virtually every single citizen for purposes of querying and analyzing it without prior judicial approval.”

Mueller sought to dampen the Snowden uproar by testifying to Congress that the feds could not listen to Americans’ calls without a warrant for that “particular phone and that particular individual.” But NSA employees had broad discretion to vacuum up Americans’ info without warrants, and NSA’s definition of terrorist suspect was so ludicrously broad that it includes “someone searching the web for suspicious stuff.”

Mueller was replaced at the FBI by James Comey. After Comey was fired in May 2017 by President Donald Trump, Comey leaked official memos with confidential information to a lawyer who delivered them to The New York Times. Comey’s leak triggered the appointment of Special Counsel Robert Mueller to investigate Trump. Mueller’s investigation generated endless allegations and controversies and helped Democrats capture control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018. In April 2019, after two years of media frenzies, Mueller finally admitted he found no evidence to prosecute Trump or his campaign officials for colluding with Russia in the 2016 campaign. In July 2019, Mueller testified to Congress on his investigation and the nation was shocked to see Mueller looking mentally clueless time and again under questioning.

It remains to be seen whether the media can restore Mueller’s halo after his death. But whitewashing Mueller’s record will simply invite more FBI depredations of Americans’ rights and liberties.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 21:25

Chicago Approves 19% Hotel Tax To Fund Tourism Push

The Chicago City Council has approved a plan to boost tourism marketing by raising hotel taxes. Under Ordinance 2026-0022544, the total tax rate on hotel rooms will increase from 17.5% to 19% in downtown and nearby areas, according to Fox News.

The higher rate will apply to hotels with more than 100 rooms that choose to participate.

The report says that alongside the tax increase, the council created a Tourism Improvement District (TID) to fund Choose Chicago, the city’s tourism marketing organization. Revenue will support promotional campaigns and help cover bids for major events and conventions.

Chicago is already pursuing the Democratic National Convention, which requires a $1 million bid. The city previously hosted the event in August 2024 and is competing with several other cities.

Mayor Brandon Johnson called Chicago a leading destination for tourism and large-scale events, saying the city will continue investing in growth and development. Choose Chicago CEO Kristen Reynolds described the move as a “transformative moment” that will strengthen marketing efforts and attract more visitors.

Some critics, however, argue the 19% hotel tax — among the highest in the country — could make travel to Chicago more expensive and potentially discourage tourism.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 21:00

FCC Bans Foreign-Made Wireless Routers

The FCC has banned the import of all new foreign-made consumer wireless routers, citing "severe national security risks".

The decision, announced today, follows a White House-convened inter-agency review that determined these devices - primarily those manufactured overseas - pose unacceptable threats to US households, critical infrastructure, and the economy.

Major brands like TP-Link (which holds a dominant share of the U.S. market), Netgear, Google Nest, Amazon Eero, Cisco, Linksys, and Asus produce most models abroad, often in China, which controls an estimated 60% of the U.S. home router market.

Interestingly, Netgear's stock soared (presumably as a US company that has the potential to steal market share from TP-Link)...

The FCC highlighted how malicious state and non-state actors have exploited vulnerabilities in foreign-made routers for cyberattacks on American civilians, including espionage, network disruptions, intellectual property theft, and incidents linked to groups like Volt Typhoon and Salt Typhoon.

The ban applies only to new models manufactured outside the U.S., regardless of the company's nationality, but does not affect routers already imported or in use.

Companies can seek exemptions through the Department of Defense or Department of Homeland Security if their products are deemed low-risk.

The move builds on prior FCC actions, such as the December 2025 ban on new foreign-made drones, and aligns with ongoing scrutiny of firms like TP-Link, which faces separate national security probes and a lawsuit from Texas over alleged deceptive marketing and data access risks.

Lawmakers, including Rep. John Moolenaar (R), chair of the House Select Committee on China, praised the order as a strong defense against Chinese cyberattacks.

"Routers are key to keeping us all connected," he said, "and we cannot allow Chinese technology to be at the center of that."

This policy could reshape the router market, encouraging domestic production or more secure alternatives while protecting against supply-chain vulnerabilities.

Existing devices remain unaffected, giving consumers and businesses time to adapt.

The Chinese Embassy has not commented.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 21:00

Quad Amputee Cornhole Pro Accused Of Murder, Tesla Getaway

A quad-amputee professional cornhole player has been accused of shooting a man in Maryland before driving off in his Tesla with the corpse, or dying guy (unclear), leaving everyone stumped. 

NEW: Quadruple amputee professional cornhole player accused of murdering someone before driving off in his Tesla.

Dayton Webber, 27, who has no arms & legs and was featured on ESPN, is accused of shooting 27-year-old Bradrick Michael Wells during an argument.

"Police say Webber… pic.twitter.com/5J1UNoQccB

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) March 23, 2026

Dayton James Webber, 27, is accused of shooting and killing Bradrick Michael Wells, also 27, while the two were arguing in La Plata, Maryland. According to Fox5 DC, the incident occurred in Webber's Tesla SUV, while Wells was in the passenger seat at the time of the alleged shooting. 

After the incident, Wells reportedly pulled over and asked two passengers in the back seat to pull Wells out - however they declined to do so and instead called the cops after getting out of the vehicle.

Webber, who had a quadruple amputation as a child due to a blood infection, then fled from the scene, leaving Wells in the Tesla (wait, don't Teslas have cameras inside?).

Wells' body was discovered in a yard on Newport Church Road in Charlotte Hall, and was pronounced dead at the scene. 

Webber, meanwhile, was found by police at a Charlottesville, Virginia hospital, placed under arrest, and charged as a fugitive from justice. He will now be extradited to Charles County where he'll face first-degree murder, second-degree murder, and other charges. 

While you too may be stumped as to how a guy with no arms or legs can shoot a gun or drive, video has emerged of Webber loading a gun, racking the slide, and firing it. 

Video posted in January 2024 shows cornhole star Dayton Webber loading and firing a handgun.

Webber is accused of shooting and killing 27-year-old Bradrick Michael Wells in Maryland before driving off with the body in his car.

The American Cornhole League has released the… https://t.co/Jz1wC985bK pic.twitter.com/JUfRm2UgFO

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) March 23, 2026

"It’s early in the investigation, but there’s no evidence to suggest anyone else was involved in the shooting and that he acted alone," said Charles County Sheriff's Office's Diane Richardson. 

No fingerprints could be found at the scene of the crime.

— Mullets & Memes (@brandon_FST) March 23, 2026

Perhaps if he dodges prison Webber can grab some coffee to think things over.

fin

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 20:35

Hundreds Of Gas Stations Run Dry In Australia As Hormuz Shock Exposes Energy Security Failures

Australia's weird obsession with "green energy," compounded by a lack of urgency regarding proper energy security, has now collided with the worst energy crisis the world has ever seen.

A country heavily dependent on imported refined petroleum products, many of which transit the Strait of Hormuz, has reached the fourth week of the U.S.-Iran war, but with a full-blown fuel supply shock now underway, and hundreds of gas stations across the country running dry.

Energy Minister Chris Bowen warned federal parliament on Monday that more than 109 gas stations in Victoria had run out of at least one grade of gas. He said 47 outlets in Queensland had no diesel, 32 had no regular unleaded, and 37 stations in New South Wales had completely run out of fuel.

Earlier, NSW Premier Chris Minns warned that 105 gas stations across his state had completely run out of diesel.

The Guardian noted that the energy minister did not disclose how many gas stations in Western Australia, the Northern Territory, South Australia, or Tasmania had run out of fuel.

On Sunday, Bowen said that six tankers from Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea that had been expected to unload refined petroleum products next month were canceled or deferred. He told local outlet ABC TV that the federal government is urgently working to replace those fuel cargoes.

Six oil ships bound for Australia have been turned back or deferred as the nation’s fuel crisis deepens, Energy Minister Chris Bowen has revealed.

The cancellations have sparked fresh concern from farmers nationwide, who say diesel and fertiliser stocks are drying up just as… pic.twitter.com/mTp4UW6IIP

— 7NEWS Australia (@7NewsAustralia) March 22, 2026

"The flow of oil to Asian refineries has slowed, and that has downward impacts on us," Bowen said, adding, "We're in an uncertain environment, so that's why we're doing all the preparatory work."

He continued, "People think, 'Well, all the ships are coming now, and one day they'll all stop in one go.' [But] that is highly unlikely to be the case. It's much more likely that there'll be bumps in supply, but that governments will work with the refiners and the importers to manage those and minimise impacts."

Bowen warned that fuel supplies were at about 38 days for gasoline. He said only 30 days of diesel and jet fuel remained.

Last week, we explained to readers exactly why Australia's catastrophic energy mistakes would lead to fuel rationing and, ultimately, broader shortages. We're sure that after this energy crisis, domestic fossil fuel dependence will be prioritized and green energy will be sidelined. It's absolutely embarrassing for Canberra, which should have had 90 days of reserves but began the crisis with only around 30.

Reports:

• Australia Has One Month Before Energy Crisis And Fuel Rationing

• Why Is Australia Not Already Rationing Fuel?

On top of the fuel crisis, which the IEA head has warned is the worst ever, Australia appears to have exacerbated the global fertilizer crisis, with one of the biggest plants shuttered for two months due to damage.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 20:10

Trump Admin Strikes Deal With Energy Firm To Nix Offshore Wind Plans

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times,

A global energy corporation based in France has ceded leases off North Carolina and New York where it planned to spend nearly $1 billion to build offshore wind turbines back to the U.S. Department of Interior and will instead redirect that investment into natural gas projects in Texas.

The “landmark agreement” was jointly announced by the department and TotalEnergies in Washington on March 23, and confirmed by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné during a press conference at the 44th annual CERAWeek by S&P Global conference at the Americas Hilton-Houston.

Burgum said much of TotalEnergies’ offshore wind investments were tied to Biden-era “green energy” subsidies rather than in direct power generation, forcing American taxpayers “to pay for energy sources twice. They were paying for it in terms of high utility bills, but they were all paying for it in terms of the taxpayer subsidies.”

Under the agreement, he said, the department will reimburse TotalEnergies “dollar for dollar” for the $928 million it spent on securing the leases, much of that placed in bonds required to develop federal lands, in exchange for the company agreeing to reinvest that money into a Texas LNG project it was already developing.

The vacated offshore leases were acquired in 2022.

They are in the Carolina Long Bay area off North Carolina and in New York Bight off Long Island.

“With this agreement, we’re allowing this great company to redirect those dollars to affordable, reliable, and secure oil and natural gas production in the U.S.,” Burgum said.

Pouyanné said offshore wind development in the United States, “unlike those in Europe,” is costly and “might have a negative impact on power affordability” for the electrical customers they were designed to serve. “TotalEnergies considers there is no need to allocate capital to this technology in the U.S.,” he said.

The abundance of natural gas and domestic producers’ growing capacity to liquify natural gas for transport by ship is “a more affordable way” to generate energy in the United States, he said.

TotalEnergies will invest the reimbursed offshore lease money into the Rio Grande LNG project in Brownsville, Texas. The century-old company, which began drilling oil in Iraq in 1927, is among the project’s three major investors.

“These investments will contribute to supplying Europe with much-needed LNG from the U.S. and provide gas for U.S. data center development,” Pouyanné said. “We believe this is a more efficient use of capital in the United States.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 19:45

JPMorgan Reportedly Installs Muslim Foot-Washing Stations At Rockefeller Center Office

A new report says that the J.P. Morgan Wealth Management office at Rockefeller Center in New York City has installed a Muslim foot-washing station designed to facilitate ritual washing before prayer.

X user Viral News NYC explained:

Report: JPMorgan Installing Muslim Foot-Washing Stations at Rockefeller Center Office

According to a source, JPMorgan Chase is installing foot-washing stations inside bathrooms at its Rockefeller Center office.

The source stated that the installations are intended to accommodate Muslim employees who wash their feet before prayer, a practice associated with daily religious observance.

Report: JPMorgan Installing Muslim Foot Washing Stations at Rockefeller Center Office

According to a source, JPMorgan Chase is installing foot washing stations inside bathrooms at its Rockefeller Center office in Rockefeller Center.

The source stated that the installations are… pic.twitter.com/JrZL6Rt1qL

— Viral News NYC (@ViralNewsNYC) March 22, 2026

Amy Mekelburg, founder of the RAIR Foundation USA, centered on topics such as immigration, Islam, left-wing politics, and globalism, stated on X that Muslim foot-washing stations at the JPM building in NYC come as no surprise, indicating "this isn't random."

"JPMorgan openly structures billions in Sharia-compliant deals: Murabaha, Sukuk Islamic bonds, liquidity products - all avoiding 'riba' interest per Islamic law," Mekelburg said.

She noted, "While everyday Americans get stuck with interest-based banking, the elite side bends to Sharia rules, funnels capital into Islamic finance, and now embeds wudu rituals in corporate bathrooms."

Sharia Finance: The Transformation of Global Banking

Of course, JPMorgan Chase is NOW installing Muslim foot-washing stations (wudu facilities) in bathrooms at their Rockefeller Center NYC office - so employees can ritually wash feet 5x daily before prayer without using sinks… https://t.co/HWiYdcRhXK

— Amy Mek (@AmyMek) March 23, 2026

"This is textbook Islamization: Western banks profit from Sharia, then accommodate Islamic practices in workplaces to keep Muslim talent/clients happy and normalize it for everyone else," Mekelburg warned.

Socialist NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani would certaintly approve. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 19:20

White House Reaches Tentative Crypto Regulatory Agreement: Report

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Key senators and the White House have reached a tentative agreement on cryptocurrency legislation aimed at resolving a dispute between banks and digital asset firms over stablecoin yields, according to Politico reporting.

The move could clear the way for a landmark crypto regulatory bill stalled in the Senate Banking Committee since January.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.) said Friday they have an “agreement in principle” on language intended to balance innovation with financial stability.

The legislation seeks to prevent stablecoin rewards programs from triggering widespread deposit withdrawals from traditional banks, a concern raised by Wall Street groups.

“The agreement allows us to protect innovation while giving us the opportunity to prevent widespread deposit flight,” Alsobrooks said. Tillis described the deal as a positive step but noted the need to consult with industry stakeholders before finalizing details.

While specifics of the agreement remain unclear, early indications suggest it could bar yield payments on passive stablecoin balances.

The tentative deal signals progress toward an April vote on the crypto market-structure bill, potentially unlocking the first major federal regulatory framework for digital assets.

Crypto legislation background 

The fight over a U.S. crypto market‑structure bill stems from a broader effort to build on 2025’s landmark stablecoin legislation, the GENIUS Act, which established a federal framework for stablecoins — requiring full backing, transparency and reserve disclosures for digital dollars. 

That law was widely seen in the crypto industry as a breakthrough for regulatory clarity while attempting to align digital assets with traditional financial standards.

After the GENIUS Act’s passage, the Senate turned its attention to more expansive digital asset oversight through what’s often referred to as the CLARITY Act or the crypto market‑structure bill. 

This legislation aims to define how U.S. regulators would police and oversee trading platforms, tokens, custody services and other infrastructure — essentially the backbone of a regulated digital asset ecosystem.

However, negotiations bogged down over one central issue: whether regulated exchanges should be allowed to offer yield‑bearing rewards on stablecoin holdings. 

Banks and major financial institutions argue that these rewards resemble unregulated deposit‑like products that could siphon funds away from FDIC‑insured accounts, potentially threatening lending and financial stability. 

Crypto firms — including major issuers like Circle and Coinbase — counter that such incentives are crucial for competitive markets and for user adoption of digital money.

The current tentative deal being negotiated between senators and the White House seeks a middle ground — potentially allowing activity‑based rewards while restricting passive yield — in hopes of unlocking Senate committee action by April.

Whether that compromise holds both bank and crypto support will be decisive for the future of U.S. digital asset regulation. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 18:55

DOJ Moves For Permanent Dismissal Of Charges Against 2 Ex-Cops In Breonna Taylor Case

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Justice (DOJ) is looking to permanently dismiss the cases against two former Louisville police officers connected to the night Breonna Taylor was killed six years ago, according to court documents filed Friday.

Former Detective Joshua Jaynes and former Sgt. Kyle Meany were accused of falsifying a warrant that led to the botched police raid on her apartment the night she died. Federal prosecutors said in the motion that their charges should be “dismissed in the interest of justice.”

Lawyers for Jaynes, Travis Lock, told The Epoch Times in an email that he and Jaynes were “extremely happy” to learn of the DOJ motion.

Michael Denbow, lawyer for Meany, wrote in an email to The Epoch Times that “Kyle [Meany] is incredibly grateful for today’s filing.”

“He is looking forward to putting this matter behind him and moving forward with his life,” Denbow said.

Taylor’s mother, Tamika Palmer, criticized the motion by the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division to dismiss Jaynes’s and Meany’s cases.

“I am compelled to express my extreme disappointment in [President Donald] Trump and the Department of Justice,” Palmer said in a post on Facebook.

Following Taylor’s death, the city of Louisville paid a $12 million wrongful death settlement to her family.

Previously a federal judge dismissed the most serious charges—deprivation of rights with an enhancement of use of a dangerous weapon causing death—brought by the DOJ under President Joe Biden against Jaynes and Meany.

Taylor, 26 years old at the time of her death in March 2020, was shot by police while three officers served a no-knock warrant as part of a drug investigation into her boyfriend, suspect Kenneth Walker.

While carrying out the raid, Walker fired a shot that hit an officer in the leg. He later said he acted under the belief that intruders were breaking in.

Police returned fire, and several bullets struck and killed Taylor. Walker was not hit. Taylor’s death came a couple of months before the police custody death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, sparking nationwide protests and violent, damaging riots.

The only officer to serve prison time in connection to Taylor’s death, Brett Hankison, was sentenced to two years and nine months with three years of supervised release over blindly firing 10 rounds through Taylor’s windows the night of her death. None of his shots hit anyone.

At his sentencing in July 2025, Hankison apologized to Taylor’s friends and family, adding that he would have acted differently if he knew about the issues surrounding the no-knock warrant.

“I never would have fired my gun,” he said in the courtroom.

Prosecutors did not charge the other two officers, deeming their return fire justified.

It remains unclear when a judge could rule on the DOJ’s motion to dismiss with prejudice the charges against Jaynes and Meany.

*  *  * SALE ENDS IN 3 DAYS

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 17:15

US Weighs Deployment Of Elite Airborne Troops As Hawks Push Kharg Island Takeover

A steady flow of headlines continue to point in the direction of escalation in Iran and around the Persian Gulf, even as President Trump has touted backchannel dialogue with Tehran, which Iranian leaders have denied.

The NY Times writes Monday afternoon, "Senior military officials are weighing a possible deployment of a combat brigade from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division and some elements of the division’s headquarters staff to support U.S. military operations in Iran, defense officials said."

US Army file image

A combat brigade would suggest some 3,000 additional elite soldiers, as the thousands of Marines currently still en route from Japan as well as from San Diego. The first group of Marines is reportedly expected to arrive to the Mideast region Friday, which would coincide with President Trump's announced five day pause on energy infrastructure strikes.

US officials speaking to the Times have made clear that the Airborne planning is just that - a preparatory phase which has not formally been ordered by the Pentagon or CENTCOM.

All of this comes amid speculation that Trump could order some kind of assault and takeover of Kharg Island:

Another possibility being considered, should President Trump authorize U.S. troops to seize the island, is an attack by about 2,500 troops from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, which is on its way to the region.

The airfield on Kharg Island was damaged by the recent U.S. bombing raids so former U.S. commanders said it was more likely to first bring in Marines, whose combat engineers could quickly repair airfields and other airport infrastructure. Once the airfield is repaired, the Air Force could start flowing matériel and supplies, as well as troops, if necessary, by C-130s.

In that scenario, it is possible that the troops from the 82nd Airborne would augment the Marines. The upside of going with paratroopers is they can arrive overnight. The downside is they do not bring any heavy equipment, such as heavily armored vehicles, that would offer protection if Iranian forces counterattacked, current and former officials said.

The whole proposed mission laid out above seems like a longshot, in terms of the potential to go well, and without the US side sustaining a lot of casualties. Army Airborne troops can be rapidly deployed, and would likely support a bigger Marine assault.

Kharg Island is after all hundreds of miles deep into the Persian Gulf and strait, where Iran controls the coastline and can fire on any vessel from there. The Pentagon has said it is softening Iran's defenses along the coast, but what can be accomplished by airpower alone is limited, according to most sources. An airborne or heliborne insertion also carries huge risks.

The 'realist' publication run by the Quincy Institute, Responsible Statecraft, has gone so far as to call it a suicide mission:

Kharg Island has been on the map for Pentagon planners for decades. President Jimmy Carter weighed bombing it or seizing it during the 1979 Iran Hostage Crisis but demurred. Incredibly, in 1988, Donald Trump himself suggested seizing Kharg during his "Art of the Deal" book tour.

Today, Kharg appears to be back in the headlines thanks to Michael Rubin, an American Enterprise Institute scholar and former Iraq Coalition Provisional Authority official who says taking Kharg is a “no-brainer” and has pitched the operation to White House officials.

...The tactical picture is even worse. For the troops unlucky enough to receive orders to take Kharg, the operation would land somewhere between a suicide mission and a self-imposed hostage crisis.

Given the size of the objective (five miles long), the substantial civilian population there, the need to hold it indefinitely, and the lack of surprise, the U.S. would need thousands of troops for the mission. Available units include the incoming MEU’s 1,200-strong Marine battalion landing team, the 82nd Airborne’s “ready brigade” (the 82nd just cancelled scheduled maneuvers, fueling speculation that it could be headed to the Middle East), the 75th Ranger Regiment, and other quick-to mobilize units, or even regular Army battalions already deployed to Kuwait. In theory, Trump has over 10,000 troops at his disposal in coming weeks, though there’s been no public discussion of sending that large a force (yet).

Lindsey Graham on Kharg Island: "We did Iwo Jima. We can do this." pic.twitter.com/JQJ5lZdvJ8

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 22, 2026

Even if the US did take Kharg, this would immediately present the next problem of 'what next?'. The US would have to hold it, perhaps while waiting for some kind of political capitulation from Tehran which is unlikely to come. 

Indefinitely defending a strategic island so deep in Iran's own backyard and territory, with all the logistical challenges, would present all new challenges.

* * *

Getting closer to boots on the ground?...that one thing Trump repeatedly pledged never to do:

Deployment of the 82nd Airborne Division from Ft. Bragg, as well as other units with the U.S. Army, appear to now be underway from bases within the Continental United States towards the Middle East, as staging continues for potential ground operations in Iran. https://t.co/E3QzoDvbKG

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 23, 2026

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Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 16:50

FBI Misled Court To Spy On Second Trump Campaign Adviser

Authored by Paul Sperry via RealClearInvestigations,

Carter Page wasn’t the only adviser from Trump’s first campaign wiretapped by the FBI. Walid Phares was electronically monitored for a 12-month period between 2017 and 2018, according to the Washington-based FBI agent who was assigned to investigate him as part of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia collusion probe.

As in Page’s case, the bureau withheld evidence exonerating Phares from the court to secure surveillance authorization, according to newly declassified FBI documents.

“I had no idea any of this was happening,” Phares told RealClearInvestigations in an exclusive interview Wednesday night. “This is shocking because they told my lawyer that I was only a ‘witness’ and that they just needed some information.”

“But these were huge abuses that I can see now,” he added. Phares said he intends to sue the FBI and Justice Department for damages.

The 68-year-old Lebanese American scholar said case agents and prosecutors grilled him for months, questioned his employer, and even went after his bank records. As a result, he said he lost his job at a university, his livelihood, and even his bank accounts and credit card after Wells Fargo canceled them.

“It was like a disaster for me financially and physically,” he said. “I also lost my Fox News contract” as an expert on terrorism and the Middle East, which he had held since 2007.

Phares was not hired by the Trump administration, even though he had been expected to land a high-level foreign policy position. “They scared the agencies from me so I would have problems with [obtaining] a security clearance,” he said.

‘No Corroborating Facts’

Investigators could find “nothing” criminal on Phares during their probe, according to the lead case agent, and in fact, they concluded he was “honest.” Yet Mueller’s team continued to secretly spy on Phares—without providing the powerful federal spy court any of the exculpatory evidence that could clear Phares as required by law.

The agent told investigators in a separate 2020 internal FBI review that “there were no corroborating facts that tied Crosswind [the codename for Phares’s case] to certain facts that we thought were originally true,” according to a transcript of his testimony, released after more than five years of concealment.

He added that “nothing” collected from Phares’s communications under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrants, including phone messages and emails, “aided the investigation other than to prove the target was being honest with investigators,” who had interviewed him repeatedly.

Nonetheless, the FBI continued monitoring Phares as part of a Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) investigation. He was never charged with any violations of the act.

“There was a ‘let’s get him’ attitude among prosecutors on Mueller’s team,” the agent said, according to the new documents, noting that several prosecutors shared an anti-Trump bias and even tacked up negative cartoons of the president on the walls of their office.

The FBI agent, whose name is redacted in several pages of declassified FBI documents released by Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles Grassley, added that “there was nothing confirming Crosswind [Phares] received a large money payment, and nothing confirming Crosswind had a meeting in another country for the purposes of the initial allegation.”

Misleading the Court

When Mueller’s team applied for the fourth and final warrant to secretly surveil Phares in 2018, the agent argued that the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) needed to be alerted to how new information “had changed our understanding of our initial analysis” that Phares was a foreign agent. He suggested several corrections, but was rebuffed by an FBI lawyer.

“I pointed out these specific corrections to the application in numerous instances throughout the FISA process,” the agent said. “I sent these edits to Kevin Clinesmith, who said, ‘We can’t send this to DOJ.’”

A senior FBI attorney, Clinesmith had also been assigned to Mueller’s team, which agreed the corrections were unnecessary.

It wouldn’t be the first time Clinesmith, whose internal texts and emails show he had an intense anti-Trump bias, withheld exculpatory evidence from the FISA court.

Clinesmith later pleaded guilty to altering evidence used in an application to renew a FISA warrant to spy on another Trump adviser, Page, whom the FBI falsely accused of acting as a Russian agent. To secure the renewal, Clinesmith changed the wording in an intelligence email that exonerated Page, reversing its meaning.

DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz found the FBI based its warrants targeting Page largely on a Hillary Clinton campaign-funded dossier of false opposition research. The IG concluded the FBI abused its FISA authority while spying on Page, including failing to disclose exculpatory evidence to the surveillance court. Far from aiding Moscow, the former Naval officer had previously worked with the CIA and FBI to help catch Russian spies, as RCI first reported.

The FISA court subsequently invalidated some of the warrants against Page, who was never charged with a crime and is now suing the FBI and DOJ for $75 million for violating his constitutional rights against improper searches and seizures.

His case is currently before the U.S. Supreme Court, but the DOJ’s solicitor general has repeatedly delayed filing a response to his petition, claiming he has other “pressing” matters. The high bench has set the next filing deadline for April 22.

The year-long FISA eavesdropping on Phares appears to be missing from both Horowitz’s and Special Counsel John Durham’s reports investigating FBI abuses in the Russiagate scandal, raising fresh questions about the thoroughness of those investigations. It is still not clear if the three other Trump campaign officials subject to Russiagate investigations—Paul Manafort, Michael Flynn, and George Papadopoulos—were also wiretapped.

A $10 Million Bribe?

In an RCI interview, Phares said the false allegations against him originated with the CIA, which issued a report in 2016 alleging he had taken a $10 million bribe from the Egyptian government intended for the Trump campaign during a meeting in Cairo.

John Brennan, an Obama appointee, was the director of the CIA at the time. He is currently under federal grand jury investigation for his role in the Russiagate hoax.

DOJ is building a “grand conspiracy” case against former Obama and Biden officials for allegedly committing political espionage against Trump and his advisers by manufacturing criminal investigations and depriving them of their rights under color of law. It’s not immediately known if the investigation includes the Phares case. The FBI and DOJ did not respond to requests for comment.

Although the Mueller investigation’s primary mandate was to investigate ties between the Trump campaign and Russia, it veered into additional investigative areas, including probing campaign contacts with other foreign governments.

Phares had taken trips to Cairo during the 2016 campaign while advising Trump on the Middle East.

The investigating agent said the highly classified intelligence agency reports that Phares secretly worked with the Egyptian government to influence the incoming administration “were disproven.”

“Despite this, the [Mueller] team still went on with the third renewal of the FISA [against Phares],” he said.

The investigation was closed in 2019, and Phares was never charged with a crime. Mueller’s $30 million-plus investigation ultimately found no evidence of Trump campaign collusion with Russia or any foreign government.

Misconduct and Bias

Grassley said the FBI agent’s testimony “details substantial allegations of misconduct and political bias occurring within Special Counsel Mueller’s office during the investigation,” including “misleading the FISC,” or Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court.

The Republican senator has requested DOJ provide his committee “all FISA applications, predication material, and related reporting” from the Crosswind probe to understand the full extent to which the FISA court was misled.

The identity of the FISA judges who approved the top-secret warrants is not yet known. But the presiding FISC judge at the time was Rosemary Collyer, a George W. Bush appointee who personally signed off on the wiretapping of Carter Page. Before resigning in 2020, Collyer issued an order stating that the FBI in its sworn affidavits had “provided false information and withheld material information detrimental to the FBI’s case [against Page].”

RCI first reported that Phares was the subject of a FARA investigation approved by former Obama DOJ official David Laufman, along with four other Trump campaign officials. But the revelation he was also put under FISA surveillance—the government’s most powerful investigative tool—had not been known until Grassley’s disclosures earlier this week.

Phares said he suspected he might be under some kind of surveillance but didn’t know for certain until this week’s release of the declassified FBI documents. He said he recently received notices from Hotmail and Yahoo that the DOJ had sought records from his email accounts through an unspecified legal process.

“They were fishing,” he told RCI.

Although agents working with Mueller initially asked Phares about Russia, they soon zeroed in on his dealings with Egypt. Mueller’s prosecutors later told him he was merely a witness, not a target.

Phares said he was first interviewed in September 2017 by Washington-based FBI agents working for Mueller.

“Two agents showed up at my door flashing badges and asked if we could speak,” he recalled. “I welcomed them in because I was a lead lecturer at the FBI (on counterterrorism), but they took four hours questioning me, and it made my wife very uncomfortable.”

Added Phares: “I made a huge mistake not lawyering up earlier.”

‘Rougher and Tougher’

He said their questions got “rougher and tougher” over the next few months of interviews, which he said later included Mueller prosecutor Zainab Ahmad, who was originally hired at Main Justice in the Spring of 2016 by Attorney General Loretta Lynch.

Ahmad was one of the key Mueller team members responsible for handling the controversial perjury case against former Trump National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, which was later thrown out. Like Flynn, Phares was an outspoken critic of Islamic terrorism, Obama’s Iranian nuclear deal, and the influence of the radical, pro-jihad Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and America.

He said he believes the Obama administration—including Brennan’s CIA—was also monitoring him during the 2016 campaign.

Declassified briefing notes from a meeting shortly after Trump took office between former deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe and Obama-appointed officials with DOJ’s national security division indicate that the FBI and DOJ were “working on a FISA application” targeting “Walid Phares” as early as March 2017.

“They knew they had nothing on Russia, so they went after me on Egypt. But the main target was President Trump,” Phares said. “They had to neutralize him and any of his associates who could carry out his agenda.”

Civil rights watchdogs have called the egregious spying violations against Carter Page the worst abuse of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act since it was enacted more than 45 years ago. Now another U.S. citizen may have been subjected to even worse abuses.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 16:25

Tesla And SpaceX To Build Massive "Terafab" Chip Factory In Austin

Elon Musk announced that his proposed “Terafab” chip factory will be built in Austin and operated jointly by Tesla and SpaceX, according to Yahoo Finance and Bloomberg.

The plan is to start with a smaller, highly advanced fabrication facility capable of producing and testing a wide range of chips, before expanding to a larger operation.

Musk argues the semiconductor industry isn’t scaling fast enough to meet his companies’ growing demand for AI and robotics, so he sees building his own supply as necessary. His long-term goal is to support massive computing capacity—eventually reaching a terawatt annually—though he hasn’t provided a timeline.

Yahoo writes that the project would likely sit near Tesla’s Austin headquarters and could produce cutting-edge chips, potentially at the 2-nanometer level. One set of chips would power vehicles, robotaxis, and humanoid robots, while another, more powerful line would be designed for space-based computing used by SpaceX and xAI.

Despite widespread concern about chip shortages, it’s unusual for companies to build their own fabs due to the enormous cost and complexity. Musk acknowledged existing suppliers can’t fully meet Tesla’s future needs as it shifts toward AI-driven products.

He also outlined broader ambitions, including space-based data centers powered by satellite networks. A prototype “mini” satellite could deliver about 100 kilowatts, with future versions reaching megawatt levels. These efforts are tied to SpaceX’s planned IPO and larger vision of expanding computing infrastructure beyond Earth.

Overall, the Terafab project reflects Musk’s push to vertically integrate chip production while supporting his longer-term goals in AI, robotics, and space technology.

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Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 15:40

Lawmakers Introduce Bipartisan Bill To Ban Sports Betting Via Prediction Markets

Lawmakers have never met a market they didn't want to control. And when they can't do that, they try to crush them - sometimes after taking six-figure donations from competing lobbies. To wit; Sens. Adam Schiff (D-CA), and John Curtis (R-UT), on Monday introduced legislation that would prohibit federally regulated prediction-market platforms from offering wagers on sports events, targeting what they call a regulatory backdoor that has let online betting proliferate beyond state control. Reading between the lines, prediction market betting is clearly a threat to the old guard. 

The bill, titled the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, would bar entities overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission - including leading platforms Kalshi and Polymarket’s U.S. operations - from listing or trading contracts tied to the outcomes of any sporting event or athletic competition. It would also extend the prohibition to “casino-style games” such as slot machines, video poker, blackjack and bingo. The measure marks the first bipartisan Senate legislation aimed squarely at prediction markets’ expansion into sports wagering.

The push comes as the broader U.S. sports-betting industry - legalized nationwide after a landmark 2018 Supreme Court ruling - generated a record handle of roughly $167 billion and gross gaming revenue of about $17 billion in 2025. More than 90% of those bets are placed online or via mobile apps operated by companies such as DraftKings Inc. and Flutter Entertainment Plc.’s FanDuel. Yet prediction markets, which structure wagers as yes-or-no event contracts under CFTC oversight rather than state gambling licenses, have carved out a parallel lane. These platforms, which gained prominence during the 2024 presidential election, now derive a significant share of volume from professional and college sports, offering bets even in states that prohibit traditional sportsbooks.

OF NOTE: The gambling industry contributed $111,876 to Sen. Schiff during the 2023-2024 election cycle, with California tribal gaming entities being particularly supportive - donating six-figure sums to pro-Schiff leadership PACs and related efforts. 

Meanwhile, the American Gaming Association (AGA), which represents licensed operators including DraftKings and FanDuel parent Flutter Entertainment, and the Indian Gaming Association (IGA) have publicly pressed Congress and states to crack down on prediction-market sports contracts.

A Regulatory Loophole Sparks Bipartisan Alarm

Schiff and Curtis argue that betting via prediction markets undermines state authority, deprives governments and tribal casinos of tax revenue, and exposes young people to addictive products without the consumer protections that accompany licensed sportsbooks. “The CFTC is greenlighting these markets and even promoting their growth,”  Schiff said. “It’s time for Congress to step in and eliminate this backdoor, which violates state consumer protections, intrudes upon tribal sovereignty and offers no public revenue.”

Curtis, whose home state of Utah remains one of the few without legal sports betting, highlighted concerns about youth access. “Too many young people in Utah are getting exposed to addictive sports betting and casino-style gaming contracts that belong under state control, not under federal regulators,” he said.

The legislation aligns with a companion House effort, the Event Contract Enforcement Act, introduced earlier this month by Reps. Blake Moore, a Utah Republican, and Salud Carbajal, a California Democrat. That bill would require the CFTC to prohibit event contracts related to sports and gaming, among other sensitive categories such as terrorism and elections, while giving states an opt-out for sports-related contracts. “Prediction markets also sponsor sports-related contracts against the wishes of many states, including Utah,”  Moore said in a statement.

States have grown increasingly frustrated. Attorneys general from 39 states and the District of Columbia have urged federal courts to uphold their authority. Nevada secured a temporary restraining order last week blocking Kalshi from offering sports, election and entertainment contracts without state licenses. Arizona filed criminal charges against Kalshi’s parent companies. Lawsuits and countersuits have proliferated, with platforms arguing exclusive federal jurisdiction and states insisting the products amount to illegal gambling.

The Supreme Court’s 2018 decision striking down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act unleashed a wave of state legalization. Thirty-eight states plus the District of Columbia now permit sports betting, generating billions in tax revenue and creating thousands of jobs. Major leagues from the NFL to the NBA have embraced partnerships, sharing data for integrity monitoring and reaping sponsorship dollars.

Prediction Markets Exploding in Popularity

Prediction markets have exploded from niche election curiosities into a multi-billion-dollar parallel sports-betting channel. Kalshi posted roughly $17–24 billion in notional volume in 2025 (85–87% sports), while Polymarket reached $21.5 billion overall (sports ~39% globally, nearly 100% on its U.S. app). Combined monthly trading volume for the two platforms surged to nearly $18 billion in February 2026 and hit a record $26 billion in January 2026, with Kalshi alone handling more than $2 billion per week ahead of the Super Bowl. Valuations followed: Kalshi hit an $11 billion mark, Polymarket $8 billion, fueled by venture inflows and retail/crypto traders who treat contracts like liquid equities rather than traditional parlays.

Via dune.com

This growth has turned the platforms into a measurable competitive pressure point. Kalshi’s sports-fee revenue is already running at an annualized pace that rivals roughly 25% of DraftKings’ projected 2026 take, while both operators now serve prohibition states that traditional books cannot touch. User bases have scaled rapidly - Kalshi monthly actives topped 5 million, Polymarket’s on-chain DAU records exceeded 150,000 in recent weeks - creating a younger, more tech-native cohort that bypasses state licensing, taxes, and responsible-gaming mandates. Traditional operators view the trajectory as existential if unchecked: without federal intervention, analysts project the sector could capture 3–5% of national sports revenue in 2026 and far more by decade’s end.

Industry Reaction and Market Moves

Traditional sports-betting operators appeared to welcome the news. Shares of DraftKings rose more than 7% in premarket trading Monday, only to settle up 2.3% as of this writing, while Flutter Entertainment gained nearly 9.5% (now only up 5.15%). The American Gaming Association, which represents many licensed operators, has long warned that unregulated prediction markets threaten state-regulated markets and lack responsible-gaming standards.

Kalshi pushed back sharply. “Banning sports on regulated prediction markets would just push this behavior offshore, where no regulation exists,” said spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana. “It’s clear this bill is motivated by casino interests that are threatened by competition.” Polymarket did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The prediction-market sector itself remains nascent but fast-growing, with platforms reporting billions in trading volume and attracting venture-capital interest. Proponents argue the markets promote price discovery and innovation; critics counter that sports contracts function indistinguishably from gambling.

The new bill joins a slate of bipartisan measures addressing sports betting. The SAFE Bet Act, backed by Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut and Rep. Paul Tonko of New York, would impose federal minimum standards on state programs - including advertising restrictions during live events, limits on bonus bets and curbs on credit-card deposits. Separately, the POINTS Act would direct roughly one-third of the federal excise tax on sports betting - potentially $100 million annually - toward prevention, treatment and recovery services for gambling addiction.

Supporters frame the efforts as protecting consumers without dismantling an industry that has become a significant economic force. Opponents warn that heavy-handed federal intervention could stifle innovation, reduce tax revenue and drive activity to offshore sites.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 14:40

More Than 230 Rescued As Devastating Flooding Continues To Hammer Hawaiian Islands

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

It has been the worst flooding Oahu has seen in more than 20 years, and as of the morning of March 21, the torrential rains and rushing waters continue to flow across the mountainous island and the rest of the Hawaiian archipelago.

The devastating milestone was announced on March 20 by Hawaii Gov. Josh Green, who said that damages could exceed $1 billion.

The cause is a type of winter storm called a “Kona Low,” which is southerly or southwesterly winds that bring moist air onto the islands. This is the second such storm that Hawaii has faced this month.

Green issued a statement on the morning of March 21, stating that no loss of life had yet been reported, although there were some serious injuries. But the back-to-back storms caused some areas to get between 40 and 50 inches of rain.

The first storm hit between March 10 and March 16 and delivered multiple feet of rain to parts of Kawai, Oahu, Maui, and Hawaii Island, as well as winds gusting 60–75 mph and even higher than 100 mph in some areas.

This second storm was expected to bring at least another 10 inches of rain to Oahu and more than a foot of rain to Maui between March 20 and 23.

Hawaii Emergency Management warned on March 21 that Maui and Oahu could still face dangerous rainbands capable of producing two to four inches per hour throughout the day, along with wind gusts reaching 45 mph.

“The storm will deliver another four to six inches of rain on Oahu throughout this weekend, but it’s now moving over to Maui, where we expect somewhere between likely four to eight inches, but as much as 10 to 12 in some areas,” the governor said.

He also said that the weather will also move over Molokai and the Big Island.

Flash flood warnings remain in effect for the entire island, which hosts military installations like Pearl Harbor and the state’s capital, Honolulu.

The National Weather Service’s Honolulu office has reported high flood waters closing and collapsing roadways, cutting off entire communities, and lifting homes off their foundations.

Honolulu mayor Rick Blangiardi said on March 20 that dozens, if not hundreds, of homes have been damaged in the storms, but no official damage assessment has been completed yet.

More than 230 people have been rescued, including 72 children and adults who were airlifted by the National Guard and Honolulu Fire Department from a youth camp retreat on Oahu’s west coast.

Ten people have been taken to the hospital to be treated for hypothermia.

More than 5,500 residents along the island’s North Shore were ordered to evacuate as the consistent rains threatened to cause the Wahiawa dam to fail, which would send rushing waters into their communities.

As of the morning of March 21, the dam remained intact, and some water levels had dropped. But Green later reported that water levels behind the dam were up to nearly 82 feet; 85 feet is the dam’s “threshold of great concern.”

Meanwhile, other Hawaiian islands also remain under flood threats through the weekend.

Maui’s Emergency Management Agency issued evacuation warnings for parts of the ʻIao Valley in Central Maui and parts of Kihei in South Maui because of a potential flooding threat, and it issued advisories for places in East Moloka’i, East Maui, and Lahaina. The agency clarified that neither warnings nor advisories were mandatory evacuation orders.

The Red Cross also deployed disaster assessment teams to Oahu, Maui, and the Island of Hawaii, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency announced that it was monitoring the situation.

“We are monitoring the severe flooding in Oahu and closely coordinating with [Gov. Josh Green] and [Hawaii Emergency Management Agency] as the state leads rescue and shelter operations,” FEMA said on X.

“Our teams on the island are embedded and ready to support if needed to help safeguard lives and communities.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 14:00

Palantir Seen On "Golden Path" As Pentagon Moves To Make Maven Battlefield System A Program Of Record

Palantir shares gained 4% by early afternoon trading after Reuters reported over the weekend that the Department of War plans to designate its Maven artificial intelligence system as an official program of record. Wall Street views this report as a bullish catalyst and a meaningful validation of Palantir's long-term role in military command-and-control AI software.

Reuters cited a letter from Deputy Secretary of Defense Steve Feinberg to DoW heads earlier this month that said embedding the Maven Smart System would provide warfighters "with the latest tools necessary to detect, deter, and dominate our adversaries in all domains."

According to Feinberg's letter, the official decision is not expected to materialize by the close of the current fiscal year, which ends in September.

The letter ordered that oversight of Maven be shifted from the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency to DoW's Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office within 30 days. It also noted that any future contracting with Palantir will be done through the Army.

Maven in use. 

"This is Maven Smart System—Palantir’s software as a service product that we are deploying across the entire department." pic.twitter.com/hIaQAiq4iJ

— Palantir (@PalantirTech) March 12, 2026

"It is imperative that we invest now and with focus to deepen the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) across the Joint Force and establish AI-enabled decision-making as the cornerstone of our strategy," Feinberg wrote.

Piper Sandler analyst Clarke Jeffries told clients, "The DoW's intention to deploy Maven is growing and will likely be a staple of the command-and-control infrastructure for a long time to come."

When Piper began covering Palantir in October, its "primary thesis for the government business was unparalleled wallet share opportunity driven by a profound shift from large cost-intensive assets to agile low-cost strategies enabled by software & unmanned systems," Jeffries said.

He added, "Investors underappreciate how much of the $1T+ annual defense budget may shift to software-specific capabilities that work in the background to support all of the new autonomous system form factors being created in industry."

Jeffries maintained an "Overweight" rating with a 12-month price target of $230.

Dan Ives of Wedbush told clients that the Maven adoption "further solidified the US military's long-term use of Palantir's technology across the Pentagon" as well as "streamlined the company's deals across all branches of the military while providing long-term funding to Palantir."

Ives expects Palantir to ink more deals with the federal government. "We continue to believe that PLTR has a golden path in the AI Revolution and this designation represents another opportunity for PLTR to capitalize while continuing to generate unprecedented traction for its entire portfolio across the federal landscape."

Ives holds the same stock rating and price target as Piper's Jeffries.

Bloomberg data show that, across Wall Street, 20 analysts, or about 66.7%, rate the stock a "Buy," while 8 rate it a "Hold," and 2 rate it a "Sell."

Palantir shares were up 4% in afternoon trading in New York, though the stock remains down about 12% year to date. Even after today's move, shares are still roughly 24.5% below their early November peak of $207.

Will the dip be bought like it was one year ago?

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 13:00

Iran Says Talks With US Are 'Fake News' After Trump Threatens To 'Just Keep Bombing', Wants Hormuz To Be 'Jointly Controlled' Summary

• Trump announces "productive" talks with Iran, "postpones" military strikes for 5 days

• Iran Foreign Ministry + Parliament speaker say no talks have happened, after Trump said "speaking with a top person in Iran", says will "just keep bombing" if Iran talks fail

• Trump says Hormuz will be "jointly controlled"; Russia and Pakistan step-up as potential mediators, engage with Tehran; US officials have told CBS News that there are at least a dozen underwater mines through the vital passageway, citing US intelligence.

• Israel is not seeing an imminent end to the war, and plans to continue operations while avoiding energy assets, an Israeli official said. US says Israel "will be pleased"

• Iran publishes broad list of potential regional targets: threatens "the entire region will go dark."

• IEA Executive Director warns of 1970s level oil shocks: "No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction." Russia mediates in call with Tehran.

Market response: oil down, yields down, stocks up (but all off their kneejerk extremes as skepticism grows)

“The market woke up to some potentially good news,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.

“But follow-through on any relief rally will likely require tangible follow-through on the geopolitical front. We’re still living in a headline-driven market.”

The prediction market odds of a ceasefire by April 30th surged above 65% initially but have faded since, remaining above 50%...

Source: Polymarket

“It is impossible to tell whether this signals genuine progress towards an off-ramp for the war, or Trump ‘zig-zagging’ to buy time and keep oil from breaking out towards $150,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.

“It should though offer at least a brief respite on rates – possibly more.”

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Trump Doubles Down, Insists There Have Been Talks, Amid Iranian Denials

In his latest comments to the press, President Trump reiterates the US and Iran had preliminary talks over the past few days, had very good discussions with Iran, and that's why energy strikes were postponed temporarily. He described that this time, Iran means business, they want to settle, and Trump stresses "we will get it done I hope." Meanwhile speculation and theories of secretive backchannel dealing abound.

Below is a note and astute observation from Rich Privorotsky, Goldman's EU head of Equity Execution:

Escalate to De-Escalate?: Trump’s behavior over the past 72 hours follows a familiar pattern. Friday he floats “winding down”… Saturday he escalates to an extreme ultimatum. Signal willingness to exit, then maximize leverage to extract a concession he can frame as a win. Same playbook as North Korea 2017–18, Soleimani 2020, tariffs with China… escalate then create deadline then offer off ramp. Issue is… this time may be harder. Iran likely sees the pattern and won’t offer an easy concession. A decentralized IRGC makes negotiation structurally difficult. And the West/Gulf won’t accept any equilibrium where Iran has de facto control over Hormuz transit.

US troop status update:

There are indications, based on plane spotters, that elements of the 82nd Airborne Division—likely the alert brigade—have arrived in the Middle East via cargo flights from Fort Bragg and likely Fort Campbell.

USS Gerald R. Ford will be replaced by the USS George H.W. Bush,… pic.twitter.com/ybzoogKApz

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 23, 2026

Iran Confirms No Talks With US, "Fake News"; IRGC Launches More Missiles on Israel

Finally a little 'clarity' from a top Iranian state source: Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson says they had no talks with the US, via IRNA. "In recent days, friendly countries sent messages indicating US request to talks to end the war but Iran did not respond," the statement says.

Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson affirms that the stance on Strait of Hormuz, conditions to end war did not change, according to more from IRNA. Importantly, state media further says the US tried to negotiate with Iran via intermediaries. Previously, Iranian officials have made clear they want to impose more costs on their attackers. Huge direct confirmation of Iran's rejection/denial:

2/ No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) March 23, 2026

The IRGC further announced fresh missile launches on Israel, also as FT reports on further mediation efforts: Pakistan steps up as go-between in Trump's Iran crisis.

The question of whether Israel actually wants de-escalation remains a big one, as Israel has continued attacking the Islamic Republic even as Trump touts alleged indirect dialogue. This was Trump earlier in the day... some surprising words to say the least:

Reporter: “what about the Strait of Hormuz, who is going to be in control of that?”

Trump: “uhhh, be jointly controlled …”

Reporter: “by who?”

Trump: “maybe me … me and the Ayatollah”pic.twitter.com/hcwRS5PbZf

— Rory Johnston (@Rory_Johnston) March 23, 2026

President Trump Refutes Iran's Denial of Talks, says Hormuz Will Be "Jointly Controlled"

Trump says US, Iran talks have "major points of agreement".

President Trump responded to reporters questions about Iran's denial of talks:

• TRUMP: IRAN NEEDS BETTER PUBLIC RELATIONS PEOPLE

• TRUMP: IRAN WOULD LIKE TO MAKE A DEAL, WE WOULD LIKE A DEAL TOO

• TRUMP: WE’LL GET TOGETHER WITH IRAN PROBABLY BY PHONE

• TRUMP: SPEAKING WITH A TOP PERSON IN IRAN

• TRUMP: PERSON WE'RE SPEAKING WITH IS NOT IRAN'S SUPREME LEADER

• TRUMP: WE HAVE NOT HEARD FROM IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER

Trump then laid out what Washington wants:

• TRUMP: WE WANT NO ENRICHMENT, WE ALSO WANT THE ENRICHED URANIUM

• TRUMP: WE WANT TO SEE NO NUCLEAR BOMB OR WEAPON FOR IRAN

On Hormuz:

• *TRUMP: HORMUZ WILL BE OPEN VERY SOON `IF IT WORKS'

• *TRUMP: STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL BE JOINTLY CONTROLLED

On oil prices:

*TRUMP: OIL PRICES WILL 'DROP LIKE A ROCK' WHEN DEAL IS DONE

On funding:

• TRUMP: THE $200B MILITARY FUNDING WOULD BE NICE TO HAVE

Israel is not seeing an imminent end to the war, and plans to continue operations while avoiding energy assets, according to an Israeli official, who asked Bloomberg not to be identified discussing private matters. 

Israel was told about Trump’s social media post ahead of time, two officials said.

• *TRUMP: WE JUST SPOKE WITH ISRAEL A LITTLE WHILE AGO

• *TRUMP: ISRAEL WILL BE VERY HAPPY WITH WHAT WE HAVE ON IRAN

President Trump, asked about Iranian media denying talks with the US, says the most recent set of negotiations took place last night, Fox Business reports.

He said talks involved Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and their counterparts, adding a deal with Iran could be reached in five days or sooner. CBS: "Amid Trump administration demands for Tehran to keep the free flow of commerce in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. officials have told CBS News that there are at least a dozen underwater mines through the vital passageway, according to current American intelligence assessments."

Russia as Potential Mediator

As we reported, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov shortly after Trump claimed Washington and Tehran were dialoguing. Russia moved to position itself as a mediator. Its Foreign Ministry said Lavrov called for an "immediate cessation of hostilities and a political settlement that takes into account the legitimate interests of all parties involved, above all Iran," in a call initiated by Tehran.

Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said the conflict with Iran is "not of their making" and is already causing major economic disruption. "Whatever your view of Iran, this war is not of their making," he said. And the UK too has weighed in on Trump's messaging, with a spokesperson for Prime Minister Keir Starmer responding: "Any reports of productive talks are welcome." The statement indicated: "We’ve always said that swift resolution to the war is in global interests and the Strait of Hormuz specifically needs to be reopened."

Iran State Media Casts Trump As In Retreat, Who Warns US Can Just 'Keep Bombing'

President Trump in Monday remarks to the press stated that the United States will "just keep bombing" if Iran talks fail.

Iran's Foreign Ministry made clear there is "no dialogue" between Tehran and Washington despite President Trump's early Monday assertion that weekend discussions were productive.

"Yes, there are initiatives from regional countries to reduce tensions, and our response to all of them is clear: we are not the party that started this war, and all these requests should be referred to Washington," the ministry said, according to state broadcaster IRIB. It added that Trump’s statements were "part of efforts to reduce energy prices and buy time to implement his military plans," which could include occupying or blockading Iran’s critical Kharg Island.

Weekend major air strikes targeted the Dezful air base (Shekari 4) of Iran's air force in western Iran:

Multiple major air strikes target the Dezful air base (Shekari 4) of Iran's air force in western Iran today. The impact of the blast wave is visible at the end.

The Dezful air base is home to Iran's F-5 fighter jets.

Video: @mamlekate

Not sharing the POV to protect the poster. pic.twitter.com/lMaLiFThnJ

— Shayan Sardarizadeh (@Shayan86) March 21, 2026

To recount, Trump said the US and Iran had held talks on the "complete and total resolution of hostilities" in the Middle East and that he would delay attacks on Iranian power plants by five days after "productive conversations" with Tehran. Iranian media has cast Trump's remarks as a retreat: "Fearing a response from Iran, Trump backed down from his 48-hour ultimatum," IRIB said.

One thing to note amid all these denials, as Nader Itayim noted in a post on X:

Iranian media outlets to issue some kind of response/ reaction so far are Fars News, and Tasnim - both considered to have close ties with the IRGC. 

Irna, or IRIB, the more traditional govt-linked outfits, yet to issue any comment.

Amid the headline pingpong, Yields are rebounding higher, along with oil as stocks retreat from earlier gains...

So who's lying, and is the truth somewhere inbetween the bombastic headlines? 

“This feels very similar to Trump’s tariff playbook — delay, create optionality, and ultimately step back,” said Manish Singh, chief investment officer at Crossbridge Capital.

“If cooler heads prevail, the outcome here could be a shift toward negotiation rather than confrontation.”

The key now will be how Donald Trump takes the Iranian response. 

“The tone is more upbeat now. But it would be naïve to assume the situation will now be resolved to the satisfaction of all the main combatants and victims of hostilities," said Bloomberg macro strategist, Simon White.

"Further, negative effects from higher energy prices are now baked in. Stock dynamics will continue to remain negative while an abundance of potential pitfalls remain ahead.”

There’s a chance he will find the situation embarrassing and that matters to markets because he would be more likely to swing back towards a more belligerent stance. 

Israeli Strikes A Mere Hour After Trump Announced US Halt

Israel launched a new wave of strikes on Iran about an hour after Trump announced the halt to US attacks. "The Air Force has begun, a short while ago, another wave of strikes targeting infrastructure of the Iranian terror regime across Tehran," the Israeli Air Force said on X.

Various reports suggest that Trump waving an olive branch will not be received well by Israeli leadership. "For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and members of the Israeli cabinet, anything but escalation and complete regime change in Iran is a catastrophe, says Akiva Eldar, an Israeli author and former columnist for the Haaretz newspaper, referring to how Trump’s announcement of talks with Iran was received in Israel," Al Jazeera writes.

"Trump going back to negotiations means that Israel will not be able to remove the Iranian nuclear threat, which has become Netanyahu’s flag, his claim to fame," Eldar told the outlet.

There continues to be evidence of severe damage and destruction in Tehran and across the Islamic Republic:

via Associated Press

Just ahead of Trump's decision to delay further strikes, Tehran threatened to expand attacks on US and regional infrastructure. The weekend saw Iranian military spokesman Lt. Col. Ebrahim Zolfaghari warn Iran would target all US -used fuel, energy, technology, and desalination infrastructure in the region if its own energy sites were hit.

Trump "Postpones" Military Strikes On Iran for 5 Days, Citing "Productive" Talks

Market sentiment has flipped dramatically optimistic this morning just after 7am ET, following a post by President Trump on his TruthSocial feed that says due to "very good and productive conversations" on a "total resolution" of hostilities in the Middle East, the US will postpone "any and all military strikes" against Iran's energy infrastructure for five days...

The front-running of his self-imposed ultimatum deadline (around 7pmET tonight) has caught market participants off guard. Iran hasn’t confirmed the talks but, if they do, this is the first time we’re seeing any kind of opening for an off-ramp to end the war. 

Iran has repeatedly said it wasn’t looking to sit down with the US. 

There has been no comment from Israeli officials. 

The reaction to Trump's statement - as you might expect - is a crash lower in crude...

...though still well above pre-war levels (as traders are still pricing in a prolonged hit from higher energy prices, even if there is relief following the latest headlines)...

...and spike higher in stocks...

...still below pre-war levels)...

What did the oil producers know?

Oil down 14% https://t.co/U69AoffNF2

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 23, 2026

Bonds and bullion are bid...

Rate-hike expectations have tumbled...

TACOs came early this week... or is it Mission Accomplished?

Iranian officials haven’t yet commented on Trump’s statement, but the headline banner on state TV sets the tone: “US President Retreats After Iran’s Decisive Threats.”

Billionaire hedge fund manager, Dan Loeb had some thoughts...

An oil trader friend of mine shared this Arabic saying.

la muntasir wala mahzum

No victor no vanquished.

Let’s see what happens and how this is framed.

— Daniel S. Loeb (@DanielSLoeb1) March 23, 2026

How long before Tehran officially denies contact?

Iran's 'List of Targets'

On Monday, Iran’s Supreme Defense Council threatened to deploy "various types of naval mines" across the Persian Gulf if its coasts or islands are attacked, according to Tasnim. The warning followed Trump’s 48-hour deadline for Tehran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after which he said the US would strike all Iranian power plants.

"The entire Persian Gulf will be in conditions similar to the Strait of Hormuz for a long period of time," the council said, according to Tasnim. It added that "non-hostile countries" could transit the strait "through direct coordination with Iran."

Iran’s IRGC-affiliated Mehr news wrote: "In case of the slightest attack on the electricity infrastructure of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the entire region will go dark." Here's the target list it shared:

Saudi Arabia

• The Village (near Al-Khobar): gas power plant (4,000+ MW)
• Ras Tanura (Sharqiya Province): major oil and gas facility / power infrastructure

United Arab Emirates

• Barakah (Al Dhafra, Abu Dhabi): nuclear power plant (~5,600 MW)
• Jebel Ali (South Dubai): gas power and desalination complex (multi-GW capacity)
• Mohammed bin Rashid Solar Park (Dubai): large-scale solar power project

Qatar

• Ras Laffan (north Qatar): gas power plant (one of the largest in Qatar)
• Umm Al Houl (south of Doha): gas power + desalination plant (multi-GW capacity)

Kuwait

• Al-Zour South: oil and gas power plant
• Al-Zour North: combined-cycle power plant (multi-GW capacity)
• Shaqaya Energy Park (west Kuwait): solar and wind renewable energy complex

State media published this graphic:

Hormuz Crisis Could Surpass Oil Shocks of 1970s

...if there's no off-ramp soon - that's according to International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol. Here's what he said according to the Associated Press:

The head of the International Energy Agency said Monday that the global economy faces a “major, major threat” because of the Iran war.

“No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction,” Fatih Birol said at Australia’s National Press Club in Canberra on Monday.

The crisis in the Middle ⁠East, he said, has had a worse impact on oil than the two oil shocks of the 1970s combined, and a worse effect on gas than the Russia-Ukraine war.

Ship traffic through the strait has dropped from about 100 vessels a week before the war to seven, according to Kpler. Iran has attacked multiple commercial vessels since the US-Israeli assault began, causing fires, damage, and at least one death, and has laid mines in the waterway.

War in Lebanon Expands

On the Lebanon front, Israel said a civilian was killed near the Lebanese border died from friendly fire, not a Hezbollah attack. The Israeli military said initial findings showed Ofer Moskowitz was killed by artillery fire intended to support troops in southern Lebanon.

⚡️Video from an apartment in Arad, Israel, of the moment of impact pic.twitter.com/pVNjPXeBlX

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 21, 2026

Hezbollah had earlier claimed a rocket strike killed the civilian in the Israeli town of Misgav Am; however, the Israeli military says it is investigating whether its own forces were responsible.

Israel's defense minister has meanwhile ordered expanded destruction of bridges and homes in southern Lebanon, raising concerns about a deeper, entrenched buffer zone. Over one million people have fled their homes and over 1,000 have been killed, according to the Lebanese government. Israeli officials warned residents across large parts of southern Lebanon to evacuate or face danger as a ground operation continues, which they say is aimed at protecting northern Israeli communities.

Pre-Trump Overnight News

And while we wait, let's take a closer look at global markets prior to the Trump headline, they were all sharply led on the downside by KOSPI which plunged 6.5%. China – SHCOMP and SHPROP were lower by 350bps as well with news outlets highlighting China as a % of global GDP is on the decline. Europe holding on a relative basis but major indices (were) down ~200bps. In commodities, European gas continues reverses previously up 5% to $65 to now down 5% to $55 – still essentially doubling vs. a month ago. Crude (was) steady but elevated with WTI approaching $99 (now $85 post headlines … ).

Precious metals (were) weak with gold off 500bps to $4,270 (now approaching flattish). Yields remain the other part of this difficult equation with the 10-year up to 4.43% (now 4.38%) highest levels since July, breaking out above levels earlier in 2026 despite additional rate cuts now potentially back on the table in market expectations. Dollar following with DXY above $100. Bitcoin flattish but closer to local lows $68.6k (now $71.6k). Macro trading likely to dominate trading & price action today, particularly in light on quiet micro backdrop this morning. The only data on deck is the Chicago Fed and Construction Spending.  On the data front, we’ll get US construction spending, Eurozone consumer confidence and Japanese CPI later this morning. Fed’s Miran speaks at 8:45am.

Looking at premarket movers away from the non stop newsflow, Mag 7 stocks are higher (Tesla +0.5%, Alphabet +0.6%, Amazon +1.8%, Meta +1.4%, Nvidia +2.1%, Microsoft +1%, Apple +1.6%). Energy stocks are falling and airline stocks are rising after Trump said he told US forces to postpone all strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.

• Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) soars 16% after the drug developer provided maintenance data from a mid-stage trial that showed its experimental therapy deepened responses in patients with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis.
• DraftKings (DKNG) gains 8% and Flutter (FLUT) rises 8% after the Wall Street Journal reported that US senators are set to introduce bipartisan legislation to ban sports bets on prediction markets.
• Synopsys (SNPS) gains 3% after people familiar said activist investor Elliott Investment Management has made a multibillion-dollar investment in the chip-design software maker and plans to push for changes.
• Valvoline rises 2% after Stifel raised the recommendation to buy, saying a recent selloff has created a buying opportunity for the automotive services company as concerns about more expensive base oil and gasoline are largely priced into the stock.

In other news, BBG reported that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have begun placing sizable orders to purchase mortgage-backed securities. UBS Group AG Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti said the Iran war could force him to pare back spending, although it won’t fundamentally alter the bank’s overall strategy. Owners of luxury brands ranging from Gucci to Fendi and Bulgari opened more stores in Europe last year despite a slowdown in the wider sector.

Trump’s comments sparked a sharp turnaround in markets after the two sides escalated rhetoric over the weekend, with hours left before a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Rising oil prices have fueled fears that central banks may be forced to tighten monetary policy.

“Assuming this holds and there is a path toward a cessation of hostilities, we can expect stabilization in equities, panic liquidation, and crucially, an unwinding of some of the very aggressive rate hikes which have been priced into markets,” said Geoff Yu, senior macro strategist at BNY.

Since it is pointless to discuss where stocks are since moves are +/- 1-2% every minute, here is a quick recap of ...

• Trump postponed threatened strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants for five days, pending the outcome of talks with Iran to end the war. Iran's semi-official local media denied any talks had taken place: BBG

• The Trump administration is telling foreign officials and others that it will not reschedule a summit between the president and Chinese leader Xi Jinping until the Iran war ends. Politico

• Donald Trump’s new tariff plans risk getting bogged down in protracted legal challenges as the president relies on obscure laws to wage his trade war after the top court in the US ruled many of his previous duties illegal. FT

• The BoJ is laying the groundwork for tweaks to its policy language in April, keeping alive the chance of a near-term interest rate hike as the weak yen and Middle East conflict pile inflationary pressures on the economy.

• Japanese companies have agreed to raise wages by more than 5% for a third consecutive year, early results from annual labor talks showed on Monday, reflecting sustained gains in pay that policymakers see as key to fostering durable economic growth. RTRS

• A Cuban official said the country is preparing for a possible military assault as Trump increases the economic pressure on the country. BBG

• LaGuardia Airport was closed until at least 2 p.m. after an Air Canada Express plane collided with a fire truck shortly after landing. Two pilots died in the crash. BBG

• Truckers are being “crushed” by the surge in diesel expense, and US consumers will soon feel the increase as the whole supply chain is forced to adjust prices higher to maintain profitability. WSJ

• Kevin Warsh is facing one of the most awkward Federal Reserve leadership transitions in decades. The economy has grown more complicated than when he promised interest-rate cuts last year while campaigning for President Trump to nominate him for the job. Even before the war in Iran sent energy prices higher, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure was heading in the wrong direction. The war threatens to push inflation higher still in the coming months, and investors now view rate increases to be more likely than cuts this year. WSJ

• ARE WE OVERSOLD? That has been one of the most frequent questions this week – and there is not a ton of reassuring evidence just yet. A tactical bounce is clearly possible given recent price action, but the broader setup does not yet point to capitulation. Locally, only ~14% of S&P stocks have hit oversold levels. For context, that figure reached over 50% in April ’25 and north of 40% during Q3 ’22: Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 12:45

Epstein Cover-Up Deepens; FBI Officers Raise Alarm

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Fresh Justice Department files reveal a frantic document destruction operation at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in Manhattan just days after Jeffrey Epstein’s 2019 death, adding fresh fuel to suspicions of elite protection and deep state obstruction.

This latest bombshell, drawn from a Miami Herald analysis of thousands of pages in the Epstein files, fits the pattern of irregularities we’ve exposed in our prior reporting.

Less than a week after Epstein was found dead inside his cell on August 10, 2019, an inmate was ordered to take bags of shredded material to the jail’s rear gate and throw them in a dumpster on Thursday, August 15, and again on Friday, August 16. The sheer volume struck him as unusual.

Bags of shredded documents at NY jail after Epstein’s death, officer tells FBI https://t.co/wMZlpaAzNl

— Miami Herald (@MiamiHerald) March 21, 2026

“They are shredding everything,” the inmate told one of the guards, adding that he was asked to give the officials a hand with the shredding, with key records vanishing before review.

A corrections officer at the detention facility called the FBI’s National Threat Operations Center that same night, a Friday, at 6:28 p.m. to report that he had “never seen this amount of bags of shredded documents coming out to be put in the dumpster at the rear gate of MCC.”

The caller found it suspicious that an after-action team charged with investigating would be shredding huge amounts of paperwork with FBI, BOP and OIG officials in the building.

A back gate corrections officer was also troubled by what he witnessed. In a memo to investigators three days later, on Monday, August 19, he wrote: “I believe that this conduct may be inappropriate for [an] investigative team to be shredding paperwork related to the investigation and you may want to investigate why BOP employees are destroying records.”

“Can we take a look at the Dumpster ASAP to see if the paper is still there? Possible they didn’t dump it yet,” replied one of the federal agents.

But it was already too late. The trash was picked up that very morning.

Federal prosecutors discovered something else amiss: “We learned today that all institutional count slips for dates prior to August 10, 2019, which we requested on August 12, 2019, are apparently ‘missing.’”

The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York opened three separate probes: one into Epstein’s death, an obstruction-of-justice case involving the shredding of documents and possible misconduct by correctional officers, and a separate “Color of Law” corruption probe. Shockingly, these shifted from potential FBI criminal cases to the Justice Department’s Office of the Inspector General, which cannot prosecute.

Then-Attorney General William Barr immediately announced an “apparent suicide.” The medical examiner ruled the same, so Epstein’s cell was never treated as a crime scene. Critical evidence, including the fabric allegedly used in the hanging, was never properly examined.

Forensic pathologist Dr. Michael Baden, hired by Epstein’s estate and a veteran of over 20,000 autopsies, argued the neck injuries and ruptured capillaries in the eyes were more consistent with strangulation than suicide by hanging.

The Bureau of Prisons conducted a standard “After Action Review,” stating these teams “review such things as various background information for the inmate, health care and personality information, antecedent circumstances, and various other details surrounding the suicide. This team then draws conclusions and makes recommendations to the facility.”

Yet the rush to shred documents and the missing count slips tell a different story.

These developments expose the same bureaucratic stonewalling and selective transparency that has shielded powerful figures tied to Epstein’s network. While some claim simple incompetence, the coordinated destruction of records right under the noses of investigators screams intent to bury connections that could implicate elites.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 12:00

Amid Shortage Fears, ASP Isotopes Completes Drilling For Helium Project Ahead Of Schedule

Shortly after we posted a breakdown on the incoming helium supply disruption from Qatar for our premium subscribers, ASP Isotopes announced that they had completed the well drilling required for Phase 1 of the Renergen Helium Project approximately four months ahead of schedule. The achievement marks a key operational milestone at the Virginia Gas Project in South Africa, substantially reducing execution risks for the planned helium and LNG production ramp.

The stock spiked higher on the news...

Drilling operations, which restarted in April 2025 following bridge loan funding from ASP Isotopes ahead of the Renergen acquisition, have now achieved the required cumulative nameplate flow rate. Results from the Phase 1C exploration campaign show gas flow rates that meet or exceed previously estimated type curves. Some recent wells delivered flows up to 16 times higher than earlier ones, thanks to improved exploration techniques and reservoir modeling by a U.S.-based expert team.

"This marks a watershed moment for our plans for helium production at the Virginia Gas Project," said Paul Mann, Executive Chairman and CEO of ASP Isotopes. "This result, together with the cumulative flow data from the broader campaign, demonstrate that the field is capable of sustaining the gas volumes required to operate the helium plant at efficient capacity once wells are tied into the plant”.

Next steps include tying the new wells into the processing plant over the coming months. Once production-ready, total gas flow is expected to support Phase 1 nameplate capacity. Production will ramp in line with customer demand and offtake agreements, with discussions ongoing for LNG and liquid helium supplies. Phase 1 targets output of 2,500 GJ per day of LNG and 58 MCF per day of liquid helium upon completion in 2026.

As we’ve thoroughly tracked, this progress builds directly on the company's acquisition of Renergen. Following regulatory clearance reported here in December 2025, the deal integrated high-concentration helium assets into ASPI's portfolio of critical materials. Helium serves not only as a vital input for semiconductors, quantum computing, medical imaging, and space applications but also as a carrier gas in the company's proprietary isotope enrichment processes.

Readers will recall our earlier coverage of ASP Isotopes' Silicon-28 supply contracts and U.S. radiopharmacy acquisition in October 2025, the private placement backed by funds linked to Eric and Donald Trump Jr. in November, and more recent advances including a major nuclear operator MOU and progress toward commercial uranium enrichment. This latest update on the helium front further diversifies ASPI's exposure across nuclear fuel, medical isotopes, quantum materials, and now reliable helium supply amid global constraints, including disruptions tied to Qatar production.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 11:45

OpenAI Lures Private-Equity Firms With 17.5% Guaranteed Returns As AI Rivals Race For Enterprise Deals

OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, is offering private-equity firms a more generous financial package than rival Anthropic as the two artificial-intelligence companies court buyout shops to create joint ventures aimed at raising fresh capital and accelerating the rollout of enterprise AI products.

To lure PE firms, OpenAI is promising investors a guaranteed minimum return of 17.5%, a figure significantly above what is typical for preferred equity instruments, according to people familiar with the discussions who spoke with Reuters. The company is also providing early access to its latest AI models as it seeks commitments from firms including TPG Inc. and Advent International Corp., the people said. OpenAI has recently intensified its focus on corporate customers, an area where Anthropic has long held an edge.

Anthropic’s parallel effort offered no such guaranteed returns, the people said.

The timing of these overtures is notable. Just weeks ago, both companies became embroiled in a high-profile dispute with the Pentagon - with Anthropic walking away from a potential $200 million Defense Department contract after insisting on being the final arbiter over safeguards preventing its Claude AI from being used in fully autonomous weapons systems or mass surveillance of American citizens. The Pentagon responded by labeling Anthropic a “supply chain risk” - an unprecedented move against a U.S. technology company - blacklisting it from federal agencies and posing a risk to industry partners who also work with the Pentagon. President Trump directed all government entities to cease using Anthropic’s tools. The company has sued over this.

Hours after the deal fell apart on Feb 28, OpenAI announced its own agreement to supply AI tools for the Pentagon’s classified systems. The deal, initially criticized as opportunistic, triggered internal dissent at OpenAI, including the resignation of a senior robotics executive, and a consumer backlash that caused a surge in ChatGPT uninstalls among 'I bought this Tesla before Elon went crazy' types. OpenAI later amended the terms to strengthen guardrails.

And apparently there's no such thing as bad news, as Anthropic’s stance earned it a surge in popularity: Its Claude app climbed to the top of U.S. download charts, with sign-ups hitting record levels.

The Race Is On

The joint ventures would enable both companies to rapidly deploy customized AI across hundreds of established companies owned by private-equity firms, creating deep integration that boosts customer retention at scale.

“There’s a big race to lock in as much enterprise, as many desks as possible,” said Matt Kropp at Boston Consulting Group’s AI unit. “Once a customized AI model is integrated into a company’s systems, switching becomes much harder.”

That said, some buyout firms have passed on the deals - citing concerns about economics, flexibility, and profit. Thoma Bravo LP opted out after internal reviews, with Managing Partner Orlando Bravo questioning the long-term profit profile, people familiar said. 

Skeptics argue large PE firms already have direct access to the AI providers and question whether the ventures deliver enough incremental value. Others see pressure on buyout shops to showcase AI strategies to their own investors.

Still, discussions continue with several firms expected to take smaller stakes. OpenAI is in advanced talks to raise about $4 billion for its venture at a roughly $10 billion pre-money valuation, with participants including TBG, Bain Capital and Brookfield Asset Management. Anthropic has approached Blackstone, Hellman & Friedman and Permira for its enterprise-focused push.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 11:25