Individual Economists

"Huge Shock": China Launches Crackdown On Cross-Border Stock Selling To Block Capital Outflows

Zero Hedge -

"Huge Shock": China Launches Crackdown On Cross-Border Stock Selling To Block Capital Outflows

China launched an unprecedented campaign against illegal cross-border trading to stem capital outflows, threatening severe penalties against brokers and ordering non-compliant accounts to be liquidated within two years, sparking a brutal selloff in three popular brokerages.

As Bloomberg reports, the pushback came after the onshore markets closed Friday when eight regulators issued a joint statement vowing a campaign against these trades, sending US-listed Chinese stocks tumbling.

The securities regulator said it planned to penalize brokerages Futu Holdings, Tiger Brokers and Long Bridge Securities for operating on the mainland without a license, and would confiscate all “illegal gains” from their domestic and overseas entities. Hong Kong’s markets regulator also announced measures on accounts for mainland Chinese investors.

Futu said regulators proposed about $271 million in fines, while Tiger Brokers owner Up Fintech Holding Ltd. said it was subject to a combined 411 million yuan ($60 million) in fines and confiscated income.

“Tiger has noted the relevant notice and will strictly comply with regulatory requirements and actively cooperate with the relevant process,” UP Fintech’s brokerage unit said in a statement, adding that all business operations remain normal. Futu also said it will co-operate with regulators and that business outside mainland China remains normal. China clients represent about 13% of total funded accounts, the firm said in a statement.

The penalty on Futu likely refers to revenue from mainland clients before 2022, Morgan Stanley said in a research note. That’s because Futu has largely stopped adding new mainland clients since then, and the requirement at that time was to ask brokers to continue serving existing clients, according to analyst Chiyao Huang. Separately, JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut Futu to neutral, with a price target of $87. 

The impact on the brokers’ shares was immediate: Up Fintech saw its ADRS sink 25% on Friday, while the US-listed shares of Futu tumbled 27%. The declines spread to other Chinese stocks, as the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.9%

The joint plan, issued on Friday by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the People’s Bank of China, the Ministry of Public Security and five other government bodies, aims to dismantle unauthorized offshore investment services that target mainland investors.

Officials said the measures are designed to clean up the capital market and steer investors toward regulated channels for overseas investment. An estimated $1.04 trillion of so-called hot money flowed out of the country in 2025, according to Bloomberg calculations - the biggest annual outflow since data began in 2006.

The moves amount to China’s most aggressive attempt yet to clamp down on its citizens finding ways to trade overseas markets, a long-running practice that is officially off-limits for a nation that imposes strict capital controls to defend its currency.

But as Bloomberg notes, the ramifications may be much wider than just the brokers targeted. Chinese companies’ global ambitions have led them to list in New York, London and particularly Hong Kong, and Chinese citizens have invested large sums as they follow their national champions overseas.

This came as a huge shock that the plug would be pulled today,” said Chen Da, founder of Dante Research, adding that the biggest surprise was the push to close existing accounts within two years. “This is very bad news for Chinese ADRs and the Golden Dragon Index if people rush to liquidate all at once.”

The Hong Kong stock market’s strong performance has attracted a growing number of mainland investors to open overseas accounts illegally to trade there, increasing outflows and likely providing authorities a stronger incentive to stop such practices, said Allen Wang, a Shanghai-based partner at Jincheng Tongda & Neal Law Firm.

The shocking crackdown also coincides with Chinese tax authorities’ intensifying drive to get its citizens to pay taxes on offshore income, he noted. A number of clients have since last year been contacted by officials to pay taxes for gains including those from overseas stocks trading, with some having opened new accounts in Hong Kong after 2022, he added.

Under the new initiative, overseas institutions will be banned from marketing in China related to securities, futures and fund products. They will also be prohibited from offering account-opening services, executing trades or facilitating fund transfers for domestic clients.

The crackdown extends beyond foreign firms. Domestic entities that assist such operations, including intermediaries that solicit investors or companies providing website, trading software or customer support, will also be subject to enforcement action. Internet platforms and social media accounts publishing illegal promotional content are included. In addition to securities laws, violations involving foreign exchange controls, anti-money laundering rules, cybersecurity requirements and personal data protection will also be inspected.

Banks will face closer scrutiny as well. Institutions providing accounts for cross-border investment will be required to strengthen compliance checks on outbound foreign exchange transactions, as regulators move to curb illicit capital outflows, including those routed through underground banking networks.

The move comes around three years after local retail traders were cut off from accessing the apps of Futu and Up Fintech, an early sign that Beijing was growing impatient with cross-border flows. In 2023, the firms were forced to scrub their trading platforms from mainland app stores. That followed a late-2022 directive where regulators told Tiger and Futu to rectify “illegal” activities and stop taking on new onshore investors.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 11:25

'Mission Impossible' Begins: Watch Live As Kevin Warsh Is Sworn In As 17th Fed Chair

Zero Hedge -

'Mission Impossible' Begins: Watch Live As Kevin Warsh Is Sworn In As 17th Fed Chair

Kevin Warsh, who’s promised the biggest shakeup in decades at the US central bank, is set to be sworn into office this morning at 1100ET in a White House ceremony as the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve.

Warsh takes over at a tense moment for the economy and the central bank. Inflation has reaccelerated, driven by the impact of war in the Middle East on energy supplies. The Fed, meanwhile, has been battered by President Donald Trump for not cutting interest rates quickly enough.

That backdrop of persistent inflation and political pressure has stoked concern among investors and analysts that the Fed’s independence is under threat. In his confirmation hearing for the job, Warsh repeatedly pledged to act independently even as he criticized the central bank for what he called mission creep and its response to the pandemic inflation surge.

Warsh faces the highest 10Y yield of any Fed Chair being sworn in since Greenspan and a market that is priced dramatically more hawkishly than The Fed's 'dots' expected...

For those watching closely, the first sign of new management will likely be visible in the Fed’s communication about monetary policy.

The June 17 press conference could give us a first taste.

Warsh has promised less forward guidance, data dependence and near-term forecasting, and more dissent.

This would be a structural break from the Bernanke-Yellen-Powell years.

Warsh's swearing-in ceremony is due to start at 1100ET...

As James E Thorne wrote on XKevin Warsh’s arrival at the Federal Reserve is not a personnel change. It is a regime change attempt inside an institution built to prevent one.

A supply-sider now runs a central bank hard-wired for Keynesian demand management, and the machine is already resisting the new code.

The next mistake is visible in plain sight. Keynesians on Wall Street and inside the Fed are treating a supply shock as if it were a demand boom and calling for tighter money. This is dogma masquerading as seriousness. A chokepoint in the Strait of Hormuz, a jump in energy prices, and a cost shock rolling through transport, food, and manufacturing are not evidence of overheated demand. They are evidence of a damaged supply side.

Monetary policy cannot reopen a shipping lane. It cannot pump more oil. It cannot repeal geopolitics. It can only crush demand somewhere else, usually with a lag, and usually in the most interest-rate-sensitive corners of the economy first, housing, commercial real estate, capital spending, and durables. Those sectors did not close the Strait. They are simply first in line to pay for the Fed’s intellectual mistakes.

That is the Keynesian reflex in its purest form. Every price spike becomes “inflation.” Every inflation scare requires a rate move. Every rate move is advertised as proof of resolve. It is nonsense. A change in relative prices caused by a supply shock is not the same thing as an inflationary spiral. Pretending otherwise is how central banks turn an external shock into a domestic recession.

Machiavelli explained why change is so hard. The innovator makes enemies of everyone who did well under the old order and wins only lukewarm defenders among those who might benefit from the new. Christensen gave the same warning in corporate language. Incumbent institutions kill disruptive change because their processes, incentives, and prestige are built around the existing model. 

That is the real problem Warsh faces. The resistance is not incidental. It is structural.

The test for Warsh is not whether he can sound tough on television. It is whether he can resist the Wall Street catechism that every supply shock must be met with tighter money.

If he hikes rates into a supply-driven price spike to prove his anti-inflation credentials, he will not have broken with the Keynesian regime.

He will have submitted to it.

This is not the 1970s.

Expectations are not unanchored, and the productive economy is already scarred by years of policy excess, fiscal decadence, and institutional bias. 

The hope is that Warsh understands the difference between inflation and a supply shock, ignores the Keynesian pundits, and refuses to compound one policy error with another.

But as Ron Paul writes, Warsh faces an 'Impossible Mission' as Fed Chair as the markets greeted him with a worldwide spike in government bond yields.

Washington will read this as a problem of personnel, a question of whether the new man will cut rates fast enough to please the president who appointed him.

Ron Paul reads it as something older and more honest:

the predictable arithmetic of a state that has spent decades borrowing against the future, debasing its currency, and then waging wars it cannot pay for.

A new chairman changes none of that. The debt is still north of 39 trillion dollars, the dollar is still losing value faster than wages can keep up, and the printing press is still the only tool the warfare state has left.

What follows is Paul’s account of how the bill comes due, and why the people least responsible for running it up will be the ones handed the tab...

After Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Federal Reserve chairman last week, he received a stark reminder of the challenges facing the central bank. The reminder came in the form of a worldwide surge in the interest rates paid by government bonds. The surge followed the spike in oil prices caused by the Iran War.

The rise in bond yields comes along with the news that, according to government statistics (which are manipulated to understate the real rate of inflation), consumer prices increased by 3.8 percent over the past year while wages increased by 3.6 percent. This means that, even though many Americans received nominal wage increases, their real (adjusted for inflation) incomes fell.

The decline in real income is why more Americans are maxing out their credit cards or carrying large balances on cards. The high interest rates on those cards trap many Americans in debt burdens from which they are unable to escape.

President Trump’s “solution” to the economic problems facing many Americans is lower interest rates. Jerome Powell, who Warsh is succeeding as Fed chair, has refused to lower rates to the level desired by President Trump. This is a big part of why the president has said he chose not to reappoint Powell.

Concerns that Warsh would allow President Trump to dictate monetary policy help explain why only one Democratic Senator voted for Warsh’s confirmation.

Lowering rates may slightly reduce credit card and other interest rates paid by consumers. However, it will further erode the dollar’s value, thus further reducing Americans’ real incomes and causing them to go further into debt.

The Fed also faces pressure to lower rates in order to monetize the over 39 trillion dollars and rising federal debt. Before the Iran War, the Federal government was projected to spend 16 trillion dollars over the next ten years just on interest on the national debt. That amount has no doubt increased thanks to the billions spent waging an unconstitutional war against Iran.

The Iran War has harmed economies around the world and could result in a global debt crisis as the disruptions cause governments to default on their debt. The disruptions could also lead to new challenges to a basis of the dollar‘s world reserve currency status — the petrodollar system linking the dollar to oil.

After President Nixon severed the last link between the dollar and gold, then-Secretary of State Henry Kissinger brokered a deal with Saudi Arabia where the Saudis would use only dollars for the oil trade in exchange for American military support. In recent years, interest in challenging the petrodollar and the dollar’s world reserve currency status has grown. This is in large part because of opposition to the US government’s use of the dollar’s status to support the US government’s sanctions.

The end of the petrodollar and the dollar’s world reserve currency status will likely lead to major inflation as the Fed desperately pumps money into the economy to monetize ever increasing levels of federal debt. The good news is this could bring about the final collapse of the welfare-warfare state and the fiat money system that sustains it.

While the short-term results of this collapse will be painful, if those of us who know the truth are successful in convincing a critical mass of people to support free markets, limited government, and a noninterventionist foreign policy, the crisis will lead to a new age of peace, prosperity, and liberty.

*  *  *

The bottom line is that, as Rabobank concludes, Warsh is in a difficult position trying to convince the FOMC to cut rates as the White House prefers, while the economic data suggest the Committee could remain on hold or even hike.

If he lets the FOMC’s caution prevail, he could face criticism from the White House. Powell’s experience could serve as a stark reminder.

However, if Warsh pushes for policy rate cuts that go beyond what is seen as appropriate given the economic data, the bond market vigilantes will punish him with higher longer-term rates.

The FOMC may think monetary policy is still in a good place, but the new Chair will be between a rock and a hard place.

Good luck Mr.Warsh!

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 10:50

UBS Warns Of "Scary" Oil Price Scenarios Once Inventory Buffers Run Dry

Zero Hedge -

UBS Warns Of "Scary" Oil Price Scenarios Once Inventory Buffers Run Dry

Drawing down crude inventories at a record pace, with SPR releases doing the heavy lifting to cushion the Gulf supply shock, only delays the move higher in crude oil prices. Once those buffers are depleted, oil risks being violently repriced higher.

That is why the Trump administration's race to secure a peace deal with Iran and reopen the Hormuz chokepoint has taken on new urgency in recent weeks. The longer the critical waterway remains disrupted, the greater the risk that the oil shock will escalate from a market event to a financial crisis, with higher crude prices feeding directly into inflation, consumer stress, and broader recession risk.

The message from the SPR crude data this week, the largest ever draw, is very clear: The Trump administration is buying time to get a deal done with Tehran. If Hormuz does not reopen soon, the market will eventually force demand destruction through much higher prices.

UBS analyst Arend Kapteyn penned a note Friday morning titled "When The Oil Buffers Run Out."

Kapteyn warned, "Oil prices can move much higher once inventories are depleted."

He continued:

This week saw the largest-ever drawdown in US oil inventories since records began in 1982: commercial inventories and the SPR combined fell by 17.8mb. These stock draws help explain why—despite nearly three months of supply shortfalls from the Middle East—oil is still trading "only" around $105/bbl.

Oil prices and volumes are linked by the price elasticity of demand. A simple relationship allows us to approximate price outcomes under different supply disruptions and degrees of demand destruction:

The oil team estimates that the net supply loss via the Strait of Hormuz is around 9mb/d after SPR releases, equivalent to a ~9% disruption.

At $105/bbl, this implies demand elasticity of roughly –0.2: a 1% increase in prices reduces demand by 0.2% (see chart). Without SPR releases, the supply shock would be closer to 12%, implying a price nearer $123/bbl.

There are two ways in which oil prices could increase much more:

  • First, if inventories are depleted they can no longer buffer the supply shortfall.
  • Second, as the "easy" adjustments in consumption and production are exhausted, demand becomes less responsive to higher prices.

The chart highlights some scary combinations.

For instance, if the global supply shortfall were 14% then even with the current demand elasticity, oil should be trading closer to $140/bbl. If the demand elasticity was 0.15 rather than 0.2, the implied oil price would be $208/bbl, and if the demand elasticity was 0.1 prices would approach $372/bbl.

Earlier this week, SPR data showed drawdowns continue to accelerate, with 9.92 million barrels - a record - drained last week. That means over 10% of the SPR has been depleted in just a few short weeks.

Total U.S. crude stocks, including the SPR, are at their lowest level since June 2025, with this week seeing the largest combined SPR and commercial stock drawdown in history.

Cushing stocks are rapidly approaching "tank bottoms" once again.

Reminder to readers: Global visible stock draws accelerated over the last week, bringing average May month-to-date visible stock draws to a record 8.7mb/d.

Earlier, Rapidan Energy Group analysts warned that a prolonged closure of the Hormuz chokepoint risks pushing the economy into a downturn on a scale approaching that of the 2008 Great Recession.

The clock is ticking for the US to secure a deal with Tehran to reopen the critical waterway and avert a further energy shock that would complicate the Trump team's midterm election odds.

Professional subscribers can read further commentary on the Gulf energy crisis-related mayhem at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 10:35

Viral Video Reveals Extent Of LA's Homeless Hell

Zero Hedge -

Viral Video Reveals Extent Of LA's Homeless Hell

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A shocking video making the rounds shows the reality of life under Los Angeles bridges: a sprawling setup of makeshift homes complete with lighting tapped into the city power grid, tables of items, and a self-contained community living off public resources.

The clip, originally from local documentarian @whitewallstuntz, captures a resident proudly displaying his space. "This how people living out here in LA man. My boy got the whole bridge to himself."

The footage reveals lighting strung throughout, suggesting direct access to grid electricity, alongside what appears to be a network of living areas.

The post continues, "These people are living down here for free, getting energy for free, guaranteed they all have EBT cards and free health insurance. It's like a self contained city 100% paid for by taxpayers. This screams 3rd world country but it's in Los Angeles, California. One of the most expensive, once iconic places on earth."

California's homelessness crisis has reached this scale despite enormous spending. The state poured roughly $24 billion into programs between 2019 and 2024, with totals climbing toward $37 billion when including later allocations.

Yet the problem persists, with over 187,000 people experiencing homelessness statewide as of recent counts. Los Angeles County alone accounts for tens of thousands of that total.

Democrat-led policies in Sacramento and LA have funneled massive sums into the system with little measurable success in reducing street homelessness long-term. Audits have repeatedly flagged poor tracking of outcomes, leaving taxpayers wondering where the money actually went while scenes like this underground network expand.

A related clip, which is actually over three years old, drives home the incentive problem. In it, a man who moved to San Francisco explains: "If you're gonna be homeless, it's pretty f*cking easy here. I mean, if we're gonna be realistic, they pay you to be homeless here."

When asked to clarify he responds "$200 food stamps and $620 bucks cash a month - it's free money, dude. This right now is literally by choice. Literally by choice. Like, why would I want to pay rent? I'm not doing. I got a cell phone that I have Amazon Prime and Netflix on."

This dynamic fuels what many call the 'Homeless Industrial Complex'.

Joe Rogan has repeatedly highlighted the issue on his show, slamming the waste and lack of accountability. In one discussion, Rogan questioned pouring billions more into the problem with no results, pointing to high salaries for those managing programs while conditions on the streets worsen.

Rogan and guests like Michael Shellenberger have exposed how the system creates incentives to maintain rather than solve the crisis.

While California's Democrat strongholds descend ever deeper into third-world conditions, Washington D.C. offers a striking contrast. Under President Trump's direct intervention, the nation's capital has seen aggressive encampment clearances, restored historic parks and fountains, and visibly cleaner public spaces - with families and even blue-haired locals now reclaiming areas once overrun by vagrants and decay.

This proves decline is a choice. Where endless taxpayer billions and soft policies create underground cities in LA and San Francisco, decisive enforcement and accountability are already making America's capital livable again.

California Democrats have controlled the levers of power for years, promising compassion while delivering third-world visuals in one of America's wealthiest states. Billions spent, power grids tapped for free, EBT and services flowing - yet the encampments multiply and iconic cities decay.

America First priorities like accountability, enforcement against open drug use, and real pathways to self-sufficiency offer a stark contrast. Taxpayers deserve better than funding underground cities while surface-level failures mount.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 10:15

As Stocks Hit Record Highs, Americans' Consumer Confidence Collapses To Record Low

Zero Hedge -

As Stocks Hit Record Highs, Americans' Consumer Confidence Collapses To Record Low

With the "mini war" still ongoing (albeit with a 'ceasefire' in place), expectations were for UMich consumer sentiment to continue languishing at record lows in final May data released this morning.

And it did, with the headline sentiment - along with both Current Conditions and Expectations - all plunging to record lows...

Source: Bloomberg

Yep... Americans have never been more miserable... Black Friday, meh; 9/11, nothingburger; GFC, fleshwound...

The cost of living continues to be a first-order concern, with 57% of consumers spontaneously mentioning that high prices were eroding their personal finances, up from 50% last month,’’ Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

So far, consumer spending has proved resilient as the job market holds up and a stock-market rally bolsters wealth.

“Critically, consumers appear worried that inflation will increase and proliferate beyond fuel prices, even in the long run,” Hsu said.

Consumers expect prices to rise an annualized 3.9% over the next five to 10 years, up from 3.5% in April and the highest in seven months. They also saw costs advancing 4.8% over the next year.

This month’s increase in long-run expectations reflects sizable jumps among independents and Republicans.

For the latter group, long-run inflation expectations are currently more than double their February 2025 reading on a monthly basis.

Republicans' confidence overall is starting to fade...

Finally, here's the k-shaped economy writ large...

Stocks at record highs (thanks to AI CapEx dreams) while sentiment at record lows (thanks to inflationary pressures on low income consumers - among other things)...

This divergence is ultimately unsustainable.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 10:09

At the Money: Blurring the Lines Between Public & Private Investments

The Big Picture -



 

 

At The Money: Blurring the Lines Between Public and Private Investments with Dave Nadig, ETF.com (May 20, 2026)

There used to be a clear distinction between public and private companies. Firms would take years or even decades to grow, build their revenue and profits, and eventually tap the public markets to go national or even global. This is no longer how it works.

Full transcript below.

~~~

About this week’s guest:

Dave Nadig is President and Director of Research at ETF.com, and he shares with us how investors should navigate all of these new products. Dave helped design and market some of the first exchange-traded funds. He is the author of  “A Comprehensive Guide to Exchange-Traded Funds” for the CFA Institute.

For more info, see:

LinkedIn

Twitter

Substack

~~~

 

Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple PodcastsYouTubeSpotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

 

 

TRANSCRIPT:

Barry: There used to be a clear distinction between public and private companies. Firms would take years or even decades to grow, build their revenues and profits, and eventually tap the public markets to go national or even global. That doesn’t seem to happen anymore as endless amounts of capital slosh through the system. More and more companies are staying private, but there’s a group of private investors that are accessing public capital through various wrappers, including ETFs.

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Dave Nadig. He’s president and director of research at etf.com, and he shares with us how investors should navigate these public-private hybrids. Dave is also the author of the book A Comprehensive Guide to Exchange Traded Funds. So Dave, there was once a very bright line between public and private markets. Has that line disappeared, or has it simply moved into wrappers that investors don’t fully grok?

Dave: I think it’s more the latter. The rules haven’t really changed — that’s important to point out here. It’s not like we passed a law that said everybody can get in. What’s changed is that there’s a willingness by the issuers of product to get a lot more aggressive in what they’re positioning as retail-appropriate vehicles. So there’s not a new wrapper here. What there are are new ways of stretching the edges of wrappers that had been around for almost a hundred years at this point.

Barry: So let’s put some numbers on that. Since 2010, private credit has raised something like $1.8 trillion. Every major firm — Blackstone, Apollo, KKR, Ares, Blue Owl — is building retail channels. There were 314 interval funds and tender offer funds with $277 billion in assets as of January of this year, 2026. A lot of chatter that private is going after the 401(k) market next. What does all this capital mean to investors?

Dave: You know, the thing investors need to realize is that if you are the one being offered a product, you need to ask yourself why. If somebody’s coming to you and saying, “I want to give you access to private credit or private equity,” it’s very smart to say, who is selling this to me, and why are they selling it to me now? And unfortunately the real answer here is — look, we’re in this incredible bull market, let’s just be really honest. Things have been going up for a very, very long time.

And because of that, there is a lot of money looking for exits. At the end of every cycle in my career, it is retail that is looked at to be the exit. Whether that’s buying Beanie Babies, used cars, or stocks, it doesn’t really matter. At the end of the day, the retail investor is the one that the quote-unquote smart money, the big institutional money, is looking to unload their positions onto.

So it’s not surprising to me that we’re seeing a lot of discussion around quote-unquote democratizing private investing — whether it’s venture capital or private credit, it doesn’t really matter. It’s all the same thing. We just have to accept that we are going to be marketed these products, and for the most part, I think investors are not well served by them. But that’s worth poking at.

Barry: So we should all take some advice from that great alternatives investor, Groucho Marx: I don’t want to be a member of any club that would have me.

Dave: Exactly.

Barry: So let’s talk a little bit about how this used to look. In the old days, historically, companies would go public to raise growth capital. Today it seems like a lot of the best-known private firms can stay private indefinitely, and those that do go public seem just to be reaching for liquidity for insiders. Is that what’s happening with these various ’40 Act funds in all sorts of new wrappers?

Dave: Yeah, there are two things going on here. On the one hand, eventually these private companies go public, and there’s a lot of effort to get investors involved in those IPOs. That’s the end state of what we’re talking about. I want to focus a little bit more on the beginning state, which is how the actual money in private equity gets there.

Historically, how that money ends up in a private company is pretty simple. There’s some pool of assets — generally an LLC or a limited partnership — and it collects a billion dollars of money from a bunch of rich people, endowments, institutions, and financial advisors. That money goes into a pool, which then makes a bunch of small investments in, say, 15 different startups in Silicon Valley. The idea is that one of those hits big, and then the payout from that is either that company gets bought or it goes IPO, and all the investors in that limited partnership get a big check.

That’s the structure. How that little pool of private money gets managed can really vary. It’s very common for it to be literally a limited partnership. But the problem with that is you can only get so many investors into it.

When you want to get a lot of investors, you have to go to some sort of regulated vehicle, and then you end up in usually a closed-end fund of some kind — whether it’s a traded closed-end fund, a non-traded closed-end fund, an interval fund, or a tender offer fund. They’re all versions of the same thing. They’re funds that are roach motels: money goes in, money never comes out.

Barry: Define those various things. What’s the difference between a tender offer fund, a closed-end fund, an interval fund — for people who may not be hip to all these different acronyms? Go through the whole list.

Dave: So really the main structure is the closed-end fund, or the CEF, which is part of the ’40 Act — just like an open-ended fund, which is an ETF or a mutual fund. Same rules, same laws, very similar structures at the very high level. The biggest difference is a closed-end fund is basically subscribed to once, like an IPO. You go out, you say, “I want to raise a billion dollars.” You see if you can get a bunch of people to give you that billion dollars.

Now that is a closed pool of money. And whether or not money ever comes out of that pool again depends on how the rules are written for that fund. In the most investor-friendly version, it tends to be a traded closed-end fund, meaning you can go to the NYSE and get a bid for it, and it may be trading at a discount or not. That’s the version that, for instance, Pershing Square just launched. Pershing Square just filed PSUS, which is a fairly traditional closed-end fund. They raised a bunch of money.

Now it trades in the open market, and much to Bill Ackman’s dismay, it’s trading at a 20% discount to what it’s actually worth. That’s pretty common in closed-end funds, because there’s no liquidity. You can only buy it or sell it from other people who happen to want it or own it.

Barry: And to clarify, PSUS — are the holdings private or public, or both?

Dave: At the moment that’s really going to be public equities. I think what people are trying to buy there is Bill Ackman’s high concentration, use of some leverage to get better exposure, special-situations kind of investing. That was a specific offering that he’s tried — I think this is his third tilt at this windmill — and finally got this one to close, albeit not with the pricing he probably would’ve hoped for. But that’s actually a pretty traditional closed-end fund.

You raise a bunch of money, you trade it back and forth with your friends, maybe it throws off dividends, maybe it throws off a capital gain someday if they have a big win. But you’re never expecting to get your money out. You can do the exact same thing and not have it ever be traded — and that’s a non-traded private equity fund.

That’s a pretty common thing. BREIT, a really well-known REIT fund, is one of those non-traded closed-end funds, and we’ve had a bunch of those launched recently also really targeting private equity. So that’s another very common version of it.

Barry: And full disclosure — what I’m about to talk about is something I own. Boaz Weinstein has an ETF, CEFS, that looks for closed-end funds that are trading at a discount to NAV. He buys them and then either agitates for the manager to buy back enough stock so it’s trading at NAV, or to break it up and just sell all the pieces and return the money or give the stock back to the investors. Why do so many of these closed-end funds trade at such a discount that activists are haranguing management for what essentially is a dollar trading at 75 cents?

Dave: Well, the discount comes because of what you just said. There’s no liquidity in it. There’s no way to ever extract real value from the fund. It’s permanent capital, largely from the perspective of the issuer.

That’s why the issuer loves it. They’re just like, “I have a $2 billion portfolio. I never have to worry about providing liquidity. I’m fine.” So if it trades at a discount, that manager really doesn’t care. They’re still getting paid based on NAV — often paid on NAV that’s been goosed by a bunch of leverage.

So they still get paid. The end investor is the one sitting here going, “Why am I sitting here at a discount?” So arb-ing out of the discount is a classic tale. People have been doing that since the sixties.

Barry: But that’s a —

Dave: — story for closed-end funds.

Barry: Right? With ETFs, the arb means there’s no discount, because you could always buy it, open the wrapper, and sell the stock. So it just seems weird that closed-end funds don’t have the same response to arb.

Dave: It’s like an appendix on regulatory structure, right? It’s this vestigial piece of flesh that’s attached to the ’40 Act. And that’s why, as you mentioned at the top of the show, there are only a couple hundred of these things. Generally people only use the closed-end fund structure when they have one of a couple of problems to solve.

One is they’re buying stuff they literally can’t sell. So in the case of USVC — the one that AngelList’s Naval just launched, I’m still trying to get my money into — the whole idea there is that buying stakes in SpaceX and private companies like that, you can’t just liquidate. They need to be able to close the liquidity gate. That’s usually reason number one.

Reason number two is usually leverage. If you’re trying to do some sort of levering up bonds to try to get 15% returns out of them — those kinds of portable alpha strategies, or risk parity strategies where you really need to be able to go long and short and get lots of leverage — you can do that in the closed-end fund structure where you can’t in a traditional mutual fund or ETF. So it does solve a problem.

The issue is, it’s very rarely a problem the normal investor has.

Barry: So you mentioned PSUS, and I remember that fee was not five bips. What was the fee on PSUS?

Dave: I think it’s 2% out of the gate.

Barry: Oh, that’s a chunk of cash. But no 20 — it’s not a two-and-twenty hedge fund. It’s just a two.

Dave: Yes, exactly.

Barry: And what about products like USVC? By the way, I love that these all have the name “US” in them. I guess the plan is they’ll do an overseas version one day as well.

Dave: Look, all of these funds are generally pretty expensive. Something like USPE, which is the one that’s come from Tap — that’s basically just going to buy a bunch of private stuff that they get access to — is charging 2%, but what they’re buying is other funds. So you get a lot of acquired fund expenses. It’s not uncommon to see these expenses creep up toward 3 or 4% when you start rolling all this stuff together.

Barry: Because it’s fees on fees?

Dave: It’s fees on fees. I should point out, though, that USVC is the one that made a big splash lately because they’re basically saying the limit’s $500 — get your money in now. They’re structuring that as a bit more of an interval fund, where once a quarter they’re saying, “We’ll give 5% liquidity to people who want to get out.” That’s, again, a fairly common structure, although none of those things are written in stone. They can say they’re going to do that and then not do it, and there’s no recourse.

Barry: And USVC does not trade on any —

Dave: It won’t trade anywhere. It’s non-traded. So the only way you’ll ever get your money out of it is either they make a distribution because something big happened in the fund, or you sign up for one of these quarterly windows where you can get 5% of your money out.

Barry: So some of these are private and hold non-liquid assets. Some of these are public and hold public assets. Are there public versions of these that hold private assets?

Dave: Well, the equivalent to that would be something like USPE, which is the one coming from Tap. The idea there is that it’ll be trading on the exchange — no, it’s not an ETF, it’s still a closed-end fund, but it’ll be a traded closed-end fund. So it’ll have its big discounts.

The other version of this is you can take an ETF and use the 15% illiquid bucket that all mutual funds are technically allowed to have, and you can try to use that aggressively. There are ETFs doing that. XOVR is the big one — it has a 15% SpaceX chunk in it. Ron Baron’s fund, BRONB, has a big chunk of SpaceX in it right now. So there are more ETFs and mutual funds trying to do that, but it’s obviously fraught with peril. You don’t want to go too far down that road and then have a giant pile of redemptions you can’t meet.

Barry: So here’s the obvious question. USPE — or even better, Pershing Square PSUS with Bill Ackman — these funds convinced savvy institutional investors and others to put a bunch of money in. They launched at a couple of billion dollars. “Wait, I could buy me some Bill Ackman at a 20% discount.” How come more people don’t see this and say, “Oh, I get to buy a premier hedge fund manager at a discount to NAV”? What’s the disconnect? Why haven’t people themselves just said, “I want some of this”? Is the expectation that, hey, if you want to be in Pershing Square, that’s where all the good stuff has taken place, but the PSUS closed-end fund isn’t going to have the same juice?

Dave: Interestingly, part of the reason Ackman had such a hard time getting this capital raise done over the years was exactly that argument. People were like, “I want to be part of the management company. I don’t want to own this garbage fund.” So what they actually floated was the combo platter, where for every — I think it’s every four or five shares of the fund you get one share of —

Barry: One —

Dave: — of the management company, the big GP, the main vehicle.

Barry: So you’re both an LP and a GP. If this was a hedge fund, you’d be an LP and a GP at the same time. Which is a very clever way to do it. How much of the overall GP did Ackman allow outsiders to buy? Or is it just built into the fund?

Dave: It’s built into the structure of the fund. I don’t know exactly —

Barry: Because you’re not getting 20% of the GP.

Dave: Well, you’re certainly not getting a hundred percent of it.

Barry: You’re getting one out of — well, if you’re buying it, you’re only getting one out of five shares or whatever it is. But he could say, “Oh, we’re going to have a hundred million shares and I’m going to put a million into this,” or whatever the float is.

Dave: Right. This is part of the problem with these kinds of funds. You ask why people aren’t storming the gates to try to get into this thing — well, you don’t know that much about it. You’re not getting regular reporting; it’s not super transparent. You don’t really know what the marks are. Obviously if they’re only holding public securities, you can impute the marks yourself, that’s fine. But on anything that’s private, you’re just kind of guessing and taking their word for it.

So yeah, it’s trading at a 20% discount to what you think it’s worth. But is that really even what it’s worth? And how do you value the GP component of this in that 20% discount? So I think the combo platter of lack of transparency and lack of liquidity is enough to scare most rational investors out of something like this.

Barry: So those are the downsides. There obviously has to be an upside. If someone like Bill Ackman is saying, “I have an idea,” and $2 billion worth of smart money theoretically threw some cash into that — what’s the upside?

Dave: The upside is Bill Ackman could be right. He runs high-concentration, somewhat levered portfolios of, I don’t know, a dozen stocks. That’s a high-conviction bet. If he gets those dozen stocks right, he could absolutely blow away the market. I’ve fully acknowledged that there are investors out there —

Barry: And his track record over the years is not bad. Lights out, right?

Dave: Exactly.

Barry: Not necessarily consistent, but mostly pretty good years and a handful of spectacular ones.

Dave: Some flashes of genius, right? So that’s why people are buying into these things — because they believe, in this case for Pershing Square, in Ackman and his prowess and his access to insight, quote-unquote, that other people aren’t getting. In the case of something like USVC, I think what they’re counting on is, “Oh, those are the AngelList guys. They’re getting to see all of this deal flow from Silicon Valley way before everybody else. USVC is going to get these nice little slugs of whatever the next SpaceX or the next big IPO is way before anybody else.”

That’s not insane. I mean, I have some private investments of my own. I’ve chosen to be much more careful and pick exactly what I want to do, but I’m not going to sit here and tell people private investing is a terrible idea. Lots of people have made lots of money doing it. So that’s the allure: hey, USVC — once they finally let people’s money in and start investing, maybe they will in fact carry the whole tailwind of everything going on in Silicon Valley venture, and your $500 becomes $5,000. It’s not impossible.

Barry: Here’s the math on private investing that I think a lot of people overlook. The median fund does okay — doesn’t do great. You’re better off in the S&P. It’s expensive and illiquid versus the S&P. But a top-decile fund does really well — diversified, non-correlated, and very often outperforms the index. The problem is, unless you get into that — I’ll be generous and say top-quartile — fund, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze. I love that expression. So given all of that, how do you think regulators should be treating this private exposure in these various public wrappers?

Dave: So my two big issues are liquidity and transparency. I think we should enforce the liquidity rules. Which means that if you’re sticking something in like an ETF, you should not be able to violate the 15% — if you cannot trade it and get a price on it intraday, it is not liquid, and you should not count it as liquid. So step one: we should actually enforce those liquidity rules.

Barry: Intraday meaning once a day, or anytime throughout the day?

Dave: Well, you’ve got to at least be able to do it once a day. And I would argue, holding an intraday-priced vehicle, you should probably be holding most of your assets in intraday-priced securities.

Barry: 85%.

Dave: 85%, right? So that seems pretty rational. That’s the liquidity side of it.

And then the transparency side. Look, the problem in private equity and private credit — as everybody who’s played in any of this knows — is that the marks don’t matter. We’ve all seen those pitch books that say, “Look, you should invest in privates. They’re so stable, they hardly ever go up or down.”

Barry: I love — Cliff Asness calls that “volatility laundering.” It’s a perfect phrase.

Dave: Right. So you’re taking what would obviously be wildly volatile assets, you’re marking them once a quarter, and you’re marking them based on a lower-vol metric — on what their comps did. So of course those are ridiculous and stupid marks. That would be the next thing I would focus on: independent valuation agents for anything that is going to touch the public hand. If you’re going to touch the 1940 Act, we should have independent verification, and we should at least publish valuation rules. That’s the other big one — they don’t tell you how they value any of these things. The board values whether or not your private thing is worth X or Y. I don’t like that. I would like to know the rules. Why do you think SpaceX is worth $185 instead of $500?

Barry: Really fascinating. Last question: five years from now, how do you think this public-private distinction — these public wrappers around private investments — I love the phrase “liquid alts.” It kind of reminds me of the George Carlin word routine: jumbo shrimp —

Dave: Military intelligence.

Barry: Right, exactly. That’s the exact routine. Listen, either it’s private and illiquid, or public and liquid. But private and liquid doesn’t really — at that point it might as well be public. It doesn’t make any sense. How do you think this distinction is going to show up in the minds of investors and/or regulators?

Dave: I don’t want to be Doomberg about this, but I feel fairly confident suggesting we’re going to have some event in the next couple of years that is going to pull the scales off our eyes around —

Barry: Haven’t we kind of had those sort of events already this year? We’ve had a bunch of privates kind of —

Dave: Oh no, very, very thin — like Blue Owl closing your BDC for redemptions. That’s course of business.

Barry: You’re talking not quite GFC, but in the same neighborhood?

Dave: Yeah, I think we’re going to have a few funds really have to either close — whether it’s a high-profile private equity fund unwinding, whether it’s some of the private credit stuff really coming home to roost. Initially it looks like we may have dodged some of that, like the private credit stuff. There was a lot of concern that that was going to blow up the world. We seem to be being a little more rational about that. On the private equity side, I think most of the money going into private equity is pretty high risk-tolerance money anyway. So until we actually cross that Rubicon of shoving this stuff in 401(k)s — which I think is still going to be a while out, I don’t think that’s happening tomorrow.

Barry: Good. I hope that’s very far out.

Dave: So I think we’ll have some high-profile blowups, but I think they will be good for investors in the sense that they will wake us up and we’ll be more skeptical — which is what’s happened with private credit. There’s not billions and billions and billions of dollars chasing private credit from retail right now. That’s a good thing. I think we dodged a bullet.

Barry: Well, there certainly were billions of dollars chasing it in ’24 and ’25. So to wrap up: for those of you interested in everything from liquid alts to interval funds to M&A funds to what have you — you have to be aware of the downside risks. These things tend to be expensive. They often trade at a discount, assuming they trade at all. They are not especially transparent. There is a lot of good faith in relying on management to tell you what these things are worth.

 

~~~

Find our entire music playlist for At the Money on Spotify.

 

The post At the Money: Blurring the Lines Between Public & Private Investments appeared first on The Big Picture.

Hope And Reality

Zero Hedge -

Hope And Reality

By Teeuwe Mevissen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Since the start of the Iran war the market has had a tendency to view the likelihood of a peace agreement with a ‘glass half full’ attitude.

Once again, markets have found some comfort in encouraging remarks from both the US and Iran, even though both sides are making it clear that there are still major sticking points on critical issues.

US Secretary of State Rubio has suggested that there are “some goods signs” towards finding a resolution. This is despite Iran’s Supreme leader ordering that the country’s enriched uranium must not be sent abroad, which is a key objective of both the US and Israel. Rubio has also stated that any deal that involved Iran imposing tolls on shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz would be unacceptable. This statement comes on the heels of this week’s news that Iran is looking to set up a new “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” to exert control over a maritime zone in the area and that the country’s authorities are also discussing with Oman how to set up a permanent toll system. Amid the confusion over the degree of progress towards peace, Brent crude prices have ticked higher this morning, though they remain in the lower part of this week’s range.

Reflecting movements in oil prices, US treasury yields are also trading in the lower part of this week’s range, though they remain at elevated levels. While asset prices continue to take their cue from speculation regarding the length of time that the Strait of Hormuz may be closed, economic data are increasingly reflecting the impact that the supply shock is already having.

Yesterday’s release of French preliminary May PMI data showed a plunge in the composite number to 43.5 from 47.6 the previous month, with weakness evident in both the manufacturing and the services sectors. The composite number, which is a 66-month low, would usually be associated with recession.

According to S&P Global, firms cited higher fuel and energy costs as reasons for lower output, with manufacturing firms citing material shortages.

The German PMI data was less of a shock but with a composite number reading 48.6, the economy is continuing to show signs of contraction. While this morning’s German IFO release was a little better than expected, it remains close to a 5-year low.

Yesterday’s release of the spring forecasts from the European Commission reflected the growing pessimism regarding the economic toll of the Iran war. GDP growth in the EU is now projected to slow to 1.1% in 2026, a downward revision of 0.3 ppts from the autumn forecasting round.

Growth for the Eurozone this year is now projected to be just 0.9%, while price pressures have been revised higher. The EC’s forecast for inflation in the EU has been revised a full percentage point higher to 3.1% in 2026. The forecast for the Eurozone stands at 3% this year up from an autumn forecast of 1.9%.

The data highlight the conundrum for the ECB. Price pressures are of clear concern, but weak activity data question whether the ECB needs to hike rates as much as markets have been expecting to rein back demand in the face of the supply shock. This morning the market is priced for a little more than two 25 bps ECB rate hikes on a 6-month view. Rabobank has pencilled in just one for now.

How weakening economic activity will impact central bank decisions has been a theme in many parts of the G10 this week. The releases of softer than expected UK and Australian labor data earlier in the week had a noticeable impact on rate hike expectations in their respective markets. Weak UK retail sales data this morning have further shone the spotlight on growth risks.

Cost of living pressures have been highlighted by UK voters as a primary concern and PM Starmer’s leadership continues to hang by a shoestring. In an effort to grapple back some control, the (current) Labour party leadership have this week announced steps to ease pressure on household budgets. This includes extending a freeze on fuel duty, cutting VAT on some hospitality services over the summer, and granting a 12-month road tax holiday for hauliers.

The package of measures will be funded by bringing forward changes to how oil and gas companies are taxed on overseas earnings. UK Chancellor Reeves’ adherence to her fiscal rules have won her some credibility in the gilts markets. Concerns that a leadership challenge would result in a swing to the left of the party and bring more spending pledges have unsettled the gilts market this month, though comments earlier in the weeks from Manchester Mayor Burnham that he would maintain the fiscal rules if he led the country have provided some reassurance.

Burnham may be the bookies’ favorite for the next leader of the UK’s Labour party, but he must win a seat in parliament before announcing a challenge. The most likely date for the Makerfield by-election is June 28. Reform will be fighting hard to win that seat ahead of Burham.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 09:45

Trump Sending 5,000 Additional Troops To Poland, After Same Number Reduced From Germany

Zero Hedge -

Trump Sending 5,000 Additional Troops To Poland, After Same Number Reduced From Germany

President Trump announced in a post on Truth Social late Thursday that he will send 5,000 additional troops to Poland, which has raised a lot of questions and introduced some level of confusion, given this is precisely the same number of troops the Pentagon has announced it plans to pull out of Germany.

"Based on the successful Election of the now President of Poland, Karol Nawrocki, who I was proud to Endorse, and our relationship with him, I am pleased to announce that the United States will be sending an additional 5,000 Troops to Poland," Trump wrote.

Weeks ago, the White House began threatening a significant and historic force reduction from Germany, following Berlin officials' repeat criticisms of the US-Israeli war against Iran. This was initially presented in media reports as part of a broader drawdown from Europe, but now it appears US forces are just being shifted around, and with 5,000 to be placed closer to Russia.

All of this was first reported and confirmed by Punchbowl News' Briana Reilly, citing the words of House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL)...

Rogers indicated that the 5,000 new troops for Poland will be in addition to the delayed deployment of 4,000 US Army soldiers to Poland.

As it stands, reports from a week ago suggest that the 4,000 has been paused or even canceled, with Pentagon commanders cited in media reports saying they were "blindsided" by the decision.

Some of this surprise and frustration was echoed in public, with Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, stating that the Army’s role in Europe "is all about deterring the Russians, protecting America’s strategic interests and assuring allies."

But it remains that "now a very important asset that was coming to be part of that deterrence is gone." He added: "The Poles certainly have never criticized President Trump, and they do all the things that good allies are supposed to do. And yet, this happens."

Trump's announcement that he's sending a separate contingency of 5,000 to Poland could be an effort to smooth over Pentagon fears, while keeping European allies happy, and seeking to demonstrate the US is not 'backing down' from Russia. 

Germany itself can't complain too loudly either, given it too has long been worried about Russia, and now more US forces are en route to NATO's 'eastern flank'. This move might have even been long in planning, with Washington trying to spin everything in terms of punishment and reward actions.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 09:15

Great Again: Blue-Haired Liberals Seen Enjoying Beautifully Restored DC Park Fountain

Zero Hedge -

Great Again: Blue-Haired Liberals Seen Enjoying Beautifully Restored DC Park Fountain

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news

Decline is a choice

Just weeks ago, Meridian Hill Park - also known as Malcolm X Park - stood as a graffiti-scarred reminder of neglect, overrun by vagrants, trash, and decay. Today, its iconic 13-basin cascading fountain flows powerfully once more, drawing families, dog walkers, and even those with blue hair who once might have sneered at such efforts.

The transformation is undeniable: clean pathways, flowing water, and people reclaiming public space in the heart of Washington, D.C.

It's the direct result of President Trump's determination to restore the nation's capital ahead of America's 250th anniversary. As one viral video captured, locals are visibly enjoying the revived park where needles and encampments once dominated.

President Trump has been clear about his personal investment in these projects. In a statement shared widely, he detailed the progress:

"So far, over 20 have been revitalized, and fixed, looking better than the day they were built, many years ago. We have some left, some were in very bad and difficult condition, but we will get them all done in a short time. D.C. is being reawakened as to its Beauty, Elegance, and Charm."

He continued on the grand prize:

"The "Granddaddy" of them all will be The Reflecting Pool - 2,500 feet long, and almost 200 feet wide, the biggest such structure ever built, but also, the most troublesome for many Administrations in that, from the time it was built in 1922, it essentially never really worked! It leaked from all angles, drew dirt, grime, and decay, was often filled with garbage, and wasn't at all representative of the two Great Monuments it connects - The Lincoln Memorial, and the Washington Monument."

"I, together with Doug Burgum and the Department of Interior, am fixing it the right and proper way - It will last for many decades into the future," Trump added.

Trump further stated, "The Fountains are now working, and look magnificent as the Park is being entirely rebuilt, using far better and more beautiful materials than originally used. As the Entrance to the White House, it's got to be spectacular - There is no other way! Again, check out what's going on at Lafayette Park."

The fountain revival aligns with Trump's revived executive order promoting classical architecture for federal buildings - an order Biden scrapped in 2021 but Trump reinstated to prioritize beauty, tradition, and civic pride over modernist ugliness.

Meridian Hill Park's cascading fountain, one of North America's longest, had been dry for years. Now it cascades with renewed vigor, part of a $54 million initiative restoring seven major D.C. fountains.

The Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool - long plagued by leaks and grime - is undergoing a major overhaul with upgraded materials and a striking "American flag blue" finish for enhanced reflection and durability.

As Trump noted, Lafayette Park, right at the White House entrance, is also being fully rebuilt with superior materials. Additional fountains and public spaces across D.C. are in the pipeline, all timed for the 250th celebrations.

The most striking images show everyday Americans - including those who might not vote Trump - relaxing by the flowing water. Blue Haired liberals were even spotted enjoying the surroundings.

Crime in D.C. is dropping, encampments are cleared, and families are returning. Beauty and order draw people in; neglect repels them. Trump's approach proves that enforcing basic standards and investing in public spaces benefits everyone, regardless of politics.

Leftist critics can fume about "wasted" money or "gentrification," but the footage tells the truth: people love safe, clean, beautiful spaces. They always have. Decades of Democrat-led decay turned the capital into a embarrassment. Trump is reversing it.

The fountains are flowing, the parks are alive, and the capital is reawakening.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 08:55

Regulators Circle StanChart After CEO's AI Layoff Comments Spark Uproar

Zero Hedge -

Regulators Circle StanChart After CEO's AI Layoff Comments Spark Uproar

It has been a tumultuous week for Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters.

Winters appeared out of touch with the growing anxiety surrounding mounting white-collar AI-related job losses. He described the bank's AI adoption push as "not cost-cutting," but rather as "replacing lower-value human capital with financial and investment capital."

Such language ignited a firestorm for the CEO and the bank, and by the end of the week, regulatory scrutiny had descended on the firm.

Reuters reports that authorities in Hong Kong and Singapore have pressed the bank for clarity on Winters' comments and the scope of upcoming AI-related layoffs.

On Tuesday, StanChart began labor restructuring to cut 15% of its corporate roles (about 7,800 jobs) by 2030 as part of a broader efficiency push amid the adoption of AI.

Hong Kong authorities asked StanChart whether AI was being used as a pretext to reduce headcount.

By midweek, Winters scrambled into damage control following the "lower-value human capital" remarks. Early today, he apologized for his "choice of words" in a LinkedIn post.

"For that, I am sorry. I am therefore showing below a verbatim transcript of what I actually said, which I hope allows for a better understanding of the important point I was raising..."

Here's the transcript:"

“For example, this new core banking system in Hong Kong, which is a major, major accomplishment. This is not an everyday thing. It happens once in 40 years. And when it goes wrong, it's a disaster. It did not; it was practically perfect. That was a two and a half year programme, to get that right. The people that were gonna be affected, who were very important for helping us get to the right answer, knew that they were gonna be affected, and we began reskilling them at the earliest possibility. We're not long on talent in the markets where we operate, because these markets are growing fast. So the people that want to reskill, that want to carry on, we're giving every opportunity to reposition. And the people that say, yeah, you know, I've done my bit, I'm ready to do something else. I take a package at the end of the application migration. So this isn't, it's not cost cutting. It's replacing, in some cases, lower-value human capital with the financial and investment capital we're putting in. But almost always, with good clear notice going forward."

Beyond StanChart, corporate America is firing engineers and other white-collar workers as AI adoption accelerates. This era will likely be remembered as the great "white-collar purge," and the response may be continued backlash toward data centers.

Meta Platforms began firing 8,000 workers earlier this week, while leaked audio of CEO Mark Zuckerberg described how AI is monitoring highly skilled employees. According to X user Official Layoff, who leaked the audio: "AI is replacing the contractor. Then the employee trains the AI. Then the AI replaces the employee."

Take a look at Bloomberg story count data for "ChatGPT" and "layoffs" ...

Labor-market disruption for white-collar workers has arrived with the rise of AI adoption. In 2023, Goldman detailed just how many jobs AI may eliminate. That number is absolutely alarming.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 08:35

US Stock Futures Rise, Set For 8th Consecutive Week Of Gains

Zero Hedge -

US Stock Futures Rise, Set For 8th Consecutive Week Of Gains

US equity futures are higher into the long weekend, with the S&P 500 gaining for an 8th consecutive week higher, its longest streak of weekly wins since 2023 with sustained momentum in popular thematics, thanks to a liquidity boost, supportive macro readings, solid earnings and hopes that the US and Iran are moving closer to a peace deal, not to mention unrelenting enthusiasm for artificial intelligence which is fueling a historic gamma squeeze.

As of 7:30am ET, S&P futures are 0.2% higher, cutting overnight gains of 0.5% by more than half,  and Nasdaq future gain 0.1% with most Mag 7 banes higher pre market led by GOOG/L (+0.4%) and NVDA (+0.3%). Bond yields are 1-2bp lower led by the belly of the curve; the 10-year yield is down two basis points to 4.55%; the softer-than-expected Japan CPI drove 30Y JGB yield 3.6bp lower (now back below 4%), which supported global bond markets. The USD is higher, while commodities are mixed: WTI crude added $2.10 to $98.50 this morning; precious metals are lower; Brent rebounded 2.6% to above $105 a barrel, but remained lower for the week. Ags are higher. Economic data slate includes May final University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes only Waller at 10am

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Alphabet +0.06%, Nvidia +0.2%, Apple +0.07%, Tesla +0.05, Amazon -0.2%, Microsoft +0.1%, Meta -0.2%)

  • US-listed Chinese stocks decline after China’s securities regulator announced plans to penalize three cross-border brokerages, adding to investor concerns around Beijing’s stance toward internet firms. Among large-cap Chinese internet firms, Alibaba (BABA) -4% and Baidu (BIDU) -3%.
  • Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) rises 5% after the defense contractor forecast adjusted Ebitda for 2027 that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Deckers Outdoor (DECK) gains 2% after the parent company of both Ugg and Hoka reported revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Estee Lauder Cos. (EL) climbs 10% after the collapse of a proposed combination with Puig Brands SA that would have created one of the world’s largest fragrance and skincare companies.
  • IBM (IBM) rises 2%, GlobalFoundries (GFS) gains 3% and smaller quantum computing firms climb, putting them on track to build on Thursday’s rally that came after the US government awarded $2 billion to IBM and several other companies as part of an investment push to develop quantum wafer facilities.
  • IMAX Corp. (IMAX) gains 15% after the Wall Street Journal reported the large-screen theater company is exploring a sale and has approached entertainment companies as potential buyers.
  • Ross Stores (ROST) rises 4% after the off-price retailer boosted its comparable sales forecast for the full year.
  • Sweetgreen (SG) gains 6% after JPMorgan raised its recommendation on the restaurant chain to overweight from neutral on new products and an improving balance sheet.
  • Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) rises 2% after the video-game company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and confirmed a Nov. 19 release date for Grand Theft Auto VI.
  • Workday (WDAY) jumps 7% after the software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as positive.
  • Zoom Communications (ZM) rises 7% after the company raised its full-year forecast for both adjusted earnings and revenue. It also reported first-quarter results that beat expectations.

In other news, SpaceX delayed a critical test of its massive Starship rocket just seconds before launch after a pin holding the tower arm in place failed to retract. Polymarket has appointed a representative in Japan and is preparing to lobby for the authorization of prediction markets in the country.

Markets are heading into the weekend on a quieter note, shaking off worries that severe disruptions to energy flows from the Middle East could stoke inflation. Signs that neither Iran nor the US is looking to widen their conflict and growing appetite for a broader group of AI beneficiaries have kept volatility subdued despite conflicting reports around peace talks. A drop in the VIX to the lowest since early February is helping the mood, as are some chunky numbers on announced corporate equity purchases. These have already exceeded $1 trillion for 2026 across new stock buybacks and cash takeovers, according to EPFR data.  

Those looking for signs of economic resilience can point to the “US exceptionalism” that strategists at Evercore ISI saw in Thursday’s S&P PMI data. They lauded the contributions from domestic energy production, AI capex and wealth creation. Exceptional, too, is the performance by tech and AI since the start of the Iran War. A basket of stocks exposed to the Anthropic AI ecosystem has surged 56% since the start of March while the equal-weighted S&P 500 is flat. 

On the subject of AI, Bloomberg notes that talks between the EU and Anthropic over testing banks and companies for digital vulnerabilities have stalled. Lenovo jumped to 26-year highs in Hong Kong trading after AI-related sales surged 84% year-on-year. DeepSeek’s senior management is said to have told potential investors in its ongoing 70 billion yuan ($10 billion) funding round that the startup will prioritize groundbreaking AI research over short-term commercialization. 

“We’ve got the biggest capital spending boom since the financial crisis,” said Guy Miller, chief market strategist at Zurich Insurance.“That’s leading to record corporate profitability; we are in this virtuous circle where it’s generating profitability for other suppliers, other companies too.”

“The market is fully aware that headlines will remain volatile, and while oil needs to react for practical reasons, equities have probably moved on,” said Geoff Yu, senior macro strategist at BNY. “The lack of an agreement does not imply re-escalation, so the focus for now will stay with earnings and data.”

In politics, Alberta’s Premier said she’ll call a referendum on whether the energy-rich province should stay in Canada or start a legal process that could eventually lead to its independence. China imposed new export controls on some key chemical ingredients shipped to the US, Mexico and Canada, in a further sign of cooperation with Washington on curbing drug trafficking.

Away from stocks, treasuries gain for a third straight day after yields earlier this week tested multiyear highs. Investors said US authorities remain highly attentive to borrowing costs and that current levels will sharpen the White House’s resolve to find a resolution in the Middle East.

“The administration is well-focused on the bond market, even more than equities in my view, so they won’t allow the curve to steepen much further,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose for a fifth straight day, climbing 0.5% as the region’s semiconductor-linked stocks such as ST Microelectronics, ASML Holding and Infineon led gains.Here are the biggest movers Friday:

  • Deutsche Post shares gain as much as 4.5% after being upgraded at Deutsche Bank, with analysts calling an end to the earnings downgrade cycle and saying recent fears over AI disruption and competition are overdone
  • Softcat shares rise as much as 12%, hitting a six-month high, after the IT services firm lifted its annual underlying operating profit guidance. Analysts said a pull-forward in orders helped and expect consensus estimates to increase
  • Brembo shares jump as much as 9.3% after the breaking systems maker announced the creation of a joint venture with Ningbo Huaxiang in China
  • Games Workshop shares rise as much as 3.6% after the Warhammer owner said it expects full-year core revenue and pretax profit to be higher than the previous year
  • Siemens Healthineers shares climb as much as 1.5% as Barclays analysts note the German medical equipment maker’s upbeat commentary on inflation at its European Leadership conference this week
  • Puig shares slide as much as 15% at open, the most on record since its 2024 IPO, after the Spanish beauty firm’s merger talks with Estee Lauder collapsed
  • Julius Baer shares dropped 10% following earnings update that analysts say was disappointing, with weak inflows. Shares had gained 9% YTD through Thursday
  • Genuit Group shares drop as much as 6.1% after the developer of plastic piping systems warned its annual underlying operating profit will be toward the lower end of analyst expectations
  • Amplifon drops as much as 3% after the Italian company sold shares to fund its acquisition of GN Store Nord’s hearing-aid business, announced in March
  • Alerion Clean Power shares drop as much as 11% after the Italian renewable energy company’s board approved a €135.6 million capital increase, excluding pre-emptive rights, for up to 10% of its share capital

Earlier, Asian equities extended their advance, supported by sustained optimism in artificial intelligence and signs of progress in US-Iran talks.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1%, putting it on track to recover losses from the previous week. Japan and Taiwan led broad advances in the region. Interest in AI stocks remained firm amid stellar results from companies. Lenovo Group was the best performer on the Asian benchmark after reporting strong growth in AI-related earnings. In Japan, tech shares led gains, while the Kosdaq gauge extended gains in South korea to a second day, driven by a new government-backed fund for tech firms. Japanese equities rose, “supported by lower interest rates and expectations for an end to the Iran conflict,” BofA Securities analysts including Masashi Akutsu wrote in a note. “From a medium-term perspective, we maintain a preference for AI-related names and a bullish stance on Japanese equities.”  Here Are the Most Notable Movers

  • China’s hottest AI stocks may be among candidates for inclusion in Hong Kong stock gauges, opening access to trading links that may trigger billions of dollars in inflows.
  • Zhipu shares surge as much as 23% in Hong Kong to a record, with analysts citing the Chinese AI company as a potential candidate for inclusion in the Hang Seng Tech Index.
  • Lenovo Group Ltd. shares jumped to the highest in 26 years on Friday after reporting strong growth in AI-related earnings that offset difficulties from rising component prices.
  • SoftBank Group shares surged for a second day, rising as much 13.9%, after the ADRs of its unit ARM Holdings rallied in the wake of earning results from AI chip leader Nvidia, which Jefferies sees as positive for ARM.
  • Tongcheng Travel’s shares drop as much as 6.6%, after Citigroup cut its price target for the Chinese online travel agent, citing concerns over the greater-than-expected impact of oil price hikes on domestic Travel.
  • Shares of NetEase rise as much as 5.8% in Hong Kong after the Chinese video games company reported better-than-expected results, thanks to strong game revenue growth and record-high margins after cost-cutting efforts.
  • Lenovo’s shares rally as much as 11% in Hong Kong to their highest since March 2000, after the Chinese computer hardware maker reported fourth quarter revenue that beat estimates.
  • Xiaomi’s Hong Kong-listed shares jump as much as 1.6% after the company introduced a performance version of its popular YU7 SUV, which Citigroup estimates could achieve monthly sales above 10,000 units.
  • Shares of Guzman y Gomez surge as much as 21% after the Australian burrito restaurant chain exits the US market, a move that analysts say will improve future earnings.
  • Tuas shares slide as much as 10% after the Australian telecommunications firm confirmed that the sale and purchase agreement for its subsidiary Simba to acquire M1 has been terminated.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up by 0.2% after closing +0.1% in a choppy Thursday session, Antipodeans lag amid the risk environment and shifting tightening bets. Conflicting reports from the Gulf whipsawed the Buck on Thursday. Traders circulated fabricated reports that a final US-Iran draft had been reached, attributing the report to Al Arabiya, though this was later denied by the outlet. Despite this, progress in talks appears evident, while gaps remain on key issues, uranium and Hormuz. Energy benchmarks have rebounded, and as such, DXY is a touch firmer. The index resides well above significant DMAs, and within recent ranges - today supported by 99.20.

  • AUD is the worst G10 performer as domestic banks push back on RBA calls. Recent soft PMI, and labour market data which showed a surprise contraction in headline employment change, and an uptick in the unemployment rate prompted NAB and Westpac to push calls for tightening back to August, which both previously expected the first hike expected in June. AUD/USD resides within Thursday's ranges, remaining below 0.72 and supported by 0.71.
  • GBP is unchanged against the Buck, and a touch firmer against the EUR. Retail Sales missed estimates, with the ONS noting that the poor figure was driven lower by fuel purchases. The PSNB figure also rose from April's print and overshot the OBR's forecast.
  • EUR/GBP lower by 0.1% and within Thursday's broad ranges. Support around 0.8640. GBP/USD little changed, within recent ranges

In rates,  Treasuries gained for a third straight day after yields earlier this week tested multiyear highs. US yields are 1bp-1.5bp richer across the curve with intermediates outperforming, flattening 2s10s spread by almost 1bp; 10-year near 4.56% trails bunds and gilts in the sector by about 2.5bp. SIFMA has recommended a 2pm New York time close of trading for USD-denominated cash bonds ahead of US Memorial Day holiday Monday. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. One offering was priced on Thursday, bringing weekly total to about 80% vs dealers’ $40 billion forecast. Focal points of holiday-shortened US session include University of Michigan sentiment data and speech by Fed’s Waller on the economic outlook.

In commodities, WTI crude futures are up around 2%, snapping a three-day decline, following latest Iran comments on uranium and the Strait of Hormuz.

Economic data slate includes May final University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes only Waller at 10am

Market Snapshot

Top overnight News

  • Oil rose as an Iran peace deal remained elusive. Iran’s recent attack on UAE’s nuclear power plant is seen as a “warning shot.” BBG
  • Arabiya and Al Hadath exclusively report the text of the anticipated US-Iran agreement in case of its approval. The agreement includes: an immediate, comprehensive, and unconditional ceasefire on all fronts, a halt to military operations, ensuring freedom of navigation in the Arabian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Sea of Oman and establishing a joint mechanism for monitoring and resolving disputes.
  • Trump said the US will send 5,000 more troops to Poland in a policy U-turn. Separately, Ukraine and its allies are growing confident Russia’s invasion is running out of steam. BBG
  • China has launched an unprecedented campaign against illegal cross-border trading, threatening severe penalties against popular brokers and ordering existing non-compliant accounts to be liquidated within two years. BBG 
  • China imposed new export controls on some key chemical ingredients shipped to the US, Mexico and Canada, in a further sign of cooperation with Washington on curbing drug trafficking. The targeted substances are primary building blocks used to manufacture illicit fentanyl. BBG
  • China’s stock exchanges are scrutinizing recent stock rallies that have been fueled by artificial intelligence optimism, asking some listed companies and funds to give more details about their approach to the technology. Regulators have sent inquiries to managers of exchange-traded funds and other funds with heavy exposure to AI-related sectors, asking them to disclose their valuation methodologies and justify the assets they hold. BBG
  • Japan’s key inflation gauge rose at the slowest pace in four years as the government continued to help ease the cost of living, creating difficult optics for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates soon. Japan’s core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food, rose 1.4% in April from a year earlier. BBG
  • The IMF approved the latest review of Argentina’s $20 billion debt deal to unlock about $1 billion, a vote of confidence in Javier Milei despite the country missing a program target. BBG
  • UK government borrowing hit the highest level for any April in six years, as pressure on public finances mounts from the Iran war and domestic political instability. BBG
  •  House Republican leaders canceled a vote on the war as GOP absences threatened a defeat for Donald Trump. BBG

Iran News

  • Arabiya and Al Hadath exclusively report the text of the anticipated US-Iran agreement in case of its approval. The agreement includes: an immediate, comprehensive, and unconditional ceasefire on all fronts, a halt to military operations, ensuring freedom of navigation in the Arabian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Sea of Oman and establishing a joint mechanism for monitoring and resolving disputes.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio said there has been slight progress on Iran. Iran is trying to create a tolling system in the Strait, and no nation should accept that. We will be continuing talks with Iran, and there is progress.
  • "A Pakistani source says that cautious optimism is the prevailing sentiment in the ongoing discussions regarding the planned agreement.", Al Arabiya reported.
  • Pakistan source said the US and Iran's insistence on raising the bar for their demand regarding uranium and the Strait of Hormuz has led to a "crisis in negotiations", Al Jazeera reported.
  • Pakistani Interior Minister met again with Iran's Foreign Minister to study proposals for resolving disputes between US and Iran, Al Jazeera reported, citing the Pakistani Embassy.
  • Pakistan's Interior Minister will remain in Tehran on Friday to continue consultations and meet with Iranian officials, while a high-level source said the Pakistani Army Chief would not travel to Tehran on Thursday night, according to Al Arabiya.
  • Pakistan's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said China supports mediation efforts and has presented a 5-point initiative.
  • Iranian National Security Commission member Rezei posted "These negotiations are probably also a hoax and the Americans have no desire for diplomacy"; says "instead of diplomats, send missiles to negotiate."
  • Iranian Foreign Ministry said "Everything being circulated about the status of the negotiations is not accurate", Al ArabyTV reported.
  • UAE official said there is a '50-50' chance of US-Iran Strait of Hormuz agreement, AFP reported.
  • Unconfirmed reports of explosions in the UAE, Tasnim reported. Details of the explosions have not yet been released.
  • Iraqi ports said search teams have been mobilised within territorial waters after contact was lost with two ships, while they did not receive any distress calls from the two Bolivian-flagged ships with which contact has been lost

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive handover from Wall Street, where all major indices gained and the Dow notched a record close on what was a choppy session, amid cautious optimism due to contradicting geopolitical headlines. ASX 200 gained with outperformance in the mining, materials and resources sectors, although the upside in the broader market was capped by weakness in telecoms, real estate and defensives. Nikkei 225 rallied amid continued tech strength, with SoftBank shares adding to the recent advances with another double-digit percentage gain, while the latest inflation data was softer-than-expected and could compel policymakers to think twice about a June rate hike. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were in the green with the Hong Kong benchmark led higher by tech stocks, including Lenovo and NetEase, as the former was boosted by its earnings results, which showed record FY revenue, while the mainland kept afloat after the PBoC upped liquidity efforts for a third day.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese regulators and exchanges intensify scrutiny of AI-fuelled market frenzy, pressing listed firms and fund managers to justify valuations, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
  • China CSRC and seven other departments said they will establish a routine collaborative regulatory mechanism to conduct comprehensive monitoring and inspections. CSRC plans penalties against Futu Holdings, Up Fintech’s Tiger Brokers and Longbridge Securities, including confiscating illegal gains.
  • China's NDRC said regarding the question on investment from the US, that they never told Chinese tech firms they couldn't take foreign investment, while it added that foreign investment must follow Chinese laws and rules, and should not harm national security and interests. Furthermore, it is planning a policy support framework to accelerate AI commercialisation, and stated that prices are set to remain stable as the domestic supply demand outlook improves.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) start the final day of the week entirely in the green, heading into an extended weekend for UK and US assets. This follows comments by US Secretary of State Rubio, via the FT, noting "some good signs" in the US-Iran talks, while Reuters reported, citing an Iranian official, that "gaps have been narrowed". More recently, Al Arabiya released the text of the anticipated US-Iran agreement, which includes an immediate and unconditional ceasefire. However, commentary out of Iran earlier in the morning continues to downplay negotiations, with the Iranian Foreign Ministry saying that everything that has been circulated about the status of negotiations is inaccurate. Sectors highlight the positive bias. Technology (+1.8%) leads, closely followed by Telecoms (+1.3%) and Industrial Goods & Services (+0.9%). To the downside lie Real Estate (-0.6%) and Energy (-0.7%). Chemicals (+0.7%) are eking out mild gains despite a flurry of downgrades within the sector (IMCD/Arkema/Evonik to underweight by JPMorgan).

Top European News

  • The next EU-UK summit could be postponed until July at the earliest (vs initial June date), Bloomberg reported citing sources. The prospect that substantial deals won’t be agreed in time.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio said President Trump is disappointed with some NATO allies. Meeting will set groundwork for NATO leader’s summit.
  • German Foreign Minister said defence spending will reach more than 4% of GDP in 2026 and on the way to 5%

FX

  • DXY is higher on the session after closing +0.1% in a choppy Thursday session, Antipodeans lag amid the risk environment and shifting tightening bets.
  • Conflicting reports from the Gulf whipsawed the Buck on Thursday. Traders circulated fabricated reports that a final US-Iran draft had been reached, attributing the report to Al Arabiya, though this was later denied by the outlet. Despite this, progress in talks appears evident, while gaps remain on key issues, uranium and Hormuz. Energy benchmarks have rebounded, and as such, DXY is a touch firmer. The index resides well above significant DMAs, and within recent ranges - today supported by 99.20. Today sees the UoM final release for May.
  • AUD is the worst G10 performer as domestic banks push back on RBA calls. Recent soft PMI, and labour market data which showed a surprise contraction in headline employment change, and an uptick in the unemployment rate prompted NAB and Westpac to push calls for tightening back to August, which both previously expected the first hike expected in June. AUD/USD resides within Thursday's ranges, remaining below 0.72 and supported by 0.71.
  • GBP is unchanged against the Buck, and a touch firmer against the EUR. Retail Sales missed estimates, with the ONS noting that the poor figure was driven lower by fuel purchases. The PSNB figure also rose from April's print and overshot the OBR's forecast.
  • EUR/GBP lower by 0.1% and within Thursday's broad ranges. Support around 0.8640. GBP/USD little changed, within recent ranges

Central Banks

  • ECB President Lagarde said long term inflation expectations are broadly well anchored and are particularly attentive to second-round effects.
  • ECB's Demarco said the ECB will probably need to hike in June. There is not much evidence of indirect inflation effects and the 2026 inflation outlook likely to be revised upwardly. Projections to show if one hike is enough or more is needed.
  • Westpac pushes back its RBA rate hike call to August and September from a previous call of June and August.

Fixed Income

  • Global benchmarks are firmer this morning, albeit modestly so. Action throughout the week has been at the whim of mixed geopolitical newsflow, which has led to choppy trade across the energy space. Today, oil prices are firmer (Brent Jul +3%), but reside towards WTD lows. As such, fixed benchmarks trade with tentative gains this morning as negotiation efforts continue.
  • USTs are firmer by a handful of ticks, though the bias throughout the European morning has been choppy. Nonetheless, US paper remains in the green and within a 109-08 to 109-14+ range. From a geopolitical front, Al Arabiya obtained the text of the anticipated agreement between the US and Iran. All key details can be found on the board at 09:16 BST, but the next sticking points incl. the exchanging of text, and then the beginning of negotiation, which the text suggested should begin within 7 days. Ahead, focus will be on speak from Fed’s Waller, where he will touch on the economic outlook, whilst the final US Michigan Consumer Sentiment is also scheduled. Yields have been of great attention this week, with the US 10yr printing multi-month highs (4.68%), whilst the 30yr soared to levels not seen since 2007 (5.2%). As for today, the 10yr is hovering towards WTD lows (4.56%) as markets remain focused on continued negotiations.
  • Bunds are firmer by c. 35 ticks, and trade within a 125.06 to 125.30 range. German paper has ultimately followed peers, but has had some domestic data to digest. Early this morning, Final German GDP (Q/Q) was unrevised, whilst the Y/Y metric was revised slightly firmer. Overall, indicative of a resilient economy, though external leads (PMIs) suggest that this may be short-lived. This theme is also seen in the latest Ifo survey, which has stabilised since the last month, though still does not indicate any material improvement in sentiment.
  • Gilts started with slight outperformance, but now trade alongside peers. Strength followed peers, with outperformance stemming from a cooler-than-expected Retail Sales report. ONS noted the poor figure was driven lower by fuel purchases, suggesting motorists had full tanks, or had stopped stockpiling as fuel prices stabilised higher, given the length of the energy disruption. The PSNB was also published, which rose to 24.3bln (prev. 12.6bln, exp. 24.3bln). Gilts trade within an 87.56 to 87.86 range.

Commodities

  • In terms of the latest on geopolitics, Al Arabiya/Al Hadath reportedly obtained a draft US-Iran agreement which, if approved, would see an immediate and unconditional ceasefire across all fronts. The draft also calls for a halt to military operations and media escalation, a commitment not to target military, civilian or economic infrastructure and guarantees for freedom of navigation in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Sea of Oman. The agreement would take effect immediately once officially announced by both sides. Pakistan sources said the US and Iran's insistence on raising the bar for their demand regarding uranium and the Strait of Hormuz have led to a "crisis in negotiations”.
  • WTI and Brent July futures are on a firmer footing heading into a weekend of risk, and with the sides reportedly hitting a crisis in talks amid raising the bar for demands regarding uranium and the Strait of Hormuz. WTI resides in a USD 96.92-99.43/bbl range while its Brent counterpart trades in a USD 103.77-106.36/bbl parameter.
  • Spot gold and silver are softer amid the elevated crude prices. Spot gold trades within a narrow USD 4,507-4,546/oz range, while spot silver trades on either side of USD 76/oz in a USD 75.69-77.04/oz range.
  • Base metal futures are mostly firmer amid the overall risk appetite across stocks amid ongoing headlines regarding Pakistani efforts to narrow the gaps between the US and Iran. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 13.56k-13.69k/t. Note that the LME is closed on Monday amid a UK bank holiday.
  • China refined fuel exports (ex Hong-Kong) expected to rise slightly from May-June to around 550k MT, according to Reuters sources.
  • Japan to receive first oil tanker to exit the Strait of Hormuz since US-Iran war began.
  • Hungary's PM said an explosion took place at a MOL's Tiszaujvaros energy plant. One person dead and several injured.
  • UAE Presidential Advisor said they were losing out in terms of production under OPEC, leaving it was under consideration for a three-year period.
  • Barclays said they have maintained their Brent forecast of USD 100/bbl for 2026, with risks skewed higher.

Trade/Tariffs

  • China adjusts drug-making chemicals export list to countries, reports suggest. Exports of relevant chemicals to the US, Mexico and Canada must apply for licenses in accordance with regulations.
  • The EU has suspended customs tariffs on certain nitrogen-based fertilisers for one year

US Event Calendar

  • 10:00 am: United States May F U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 48.2, prior 48.2
  • 10:00 am: United States Fed’s Waller Speaks on Economic Outlook

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Helsinki. After a lot of travel recently, next week is mercifully quiet — though the price is one day off work at the end of it, on half-term childcare duty. Speaking of kids, this weekend I’m organising a U9 cricket festival for around 75 of them. Wish me luck. I’ve used AI to sort out all the complicated fixtures, so by next week I’ll know whether it’s the future of humanity or not.

If this had been written as Europe went home last night, it would have been all about the removal of optimism, higher oil, higher yields and weaker equities. However, optimism over a potential deal in Iran turned everything around before a slight pullback into the US close, as differences appeared to remain over nuclear questions and the future status of the Strait of Hormuz. In the end, this has left Brent at $104.30/bbl this morning, about a dollar below where it was at this time yesterday. The tentative optimism meant 10yr Treasuries (-1.4bps) and the S&P 500 (+0.17%) posted modest gains, with equity futures and Asian markets also moving higher this morning.

In terms of Iran developments, a multitude of contradictory headlines drove markets over the past 24 hours. Initially, oil prices fell in the European morning, as Iran’s ISNA reported that Iran was in the process of responding to a US text, with the report also saying the US text “has narrowed the gaps to some extent”. That initial optimism was soon reversed, as Reuters reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader had ordered that the country’s enriched uranium should stay in Iran. This drove a rebound in oil prices, given that the US had been calling for the removal of Iran’s uranium in the talks. However, Al Jazeera and other outlets later reported denials that such a new directive had been issued. Oil prices then saw a renewed decline amid social media reporting that the US and Iran may have reached a draft agreement that would leave nuclear talks for later, though the veracity of those reports was unclear. Optimism partially ebbed again as Iran’s President Pezeshkian suggested that “we will never back down” in talks. There were also questions over the status of the Strait of Hormuz under any deal, with Trump opposing efforts by Iran and Oman to establish a toll system, saying “we want it open, we want it free, we don’t want tolls”.

The increased optimism around potential movement towards a deal saw Brent crude decline from above $109/bbl early in yesterday’s US session to settle at $102.58/bbl (-2.32% on the day), before edging higher again to $104.30/bbl as I type. The moderation in oil prices helped Treasury yields reverse initial increases yesterday, with the 10yr yield down -1.4bps to 4.57% after trading as high as 4.63%. They are flat this morning.

That decline in long-term yields came despite more hawkish repricing at the front end, with 2yr yields up +2.8bps to 4.08% as the probability of a Fed hike by December moved up to 82%, its highest level so far this year. These moves came as US data remained solid, with the flash composite PMI stable at an expansionary level of 51.7 in May, while input prices rose at their fastest pace since November 2022 amid the energy shock.

For equities, improved optimism on Iran meant that US stocks erased initial declines, with the S&P 500 (+0.17%) advancing despite trading in the red for most of the session. This leaves the index just -0.74% below its all-time high and on track to post an eighth consecutive weekly gain, which would be the longest such run since 2023. Defensive sectors and blue-chip names led the advance, bringing the Dow Jones (+0.55%) to a new record high. Tech stocks were broadly stable, with the Nasdaq (+0.09%) and the Magnificent 7 (+0.03%) little changed, though Nvidia (-1.77%) fell after its results the previous evening. By contrast, IBM (+12.43%) surged on news that the US administration agreed to award the company $1bn to build a foundry for producing quantum computing chips. Meanwhile, Intuit (-20.02%) and Walmart (-7.27%) were two of the three biggest decliners in the S&P after soft earnings releases.

A positive mood has mostly continued in Asian markets overnight with the Nikkei (+2.29%) leading the way. Most other main markets are up around half a percent. S&P (+0.26%) and Nasdaq (+0.38%) futures are also higher alongside European Stoxx (+0.82%) futures.
This follows a less positive session in Europe yesterday, with several indices losing ground, including Germany’s DAX (-0.53%) and France’s CAC 40 (-0.39%). However, the STOXX 600 (+0.04%) eked out a fourth consecutive gain, supported by equity strength in other countries, including the UK and Switzerland. A similar story played out in bonds, with 10yr bunds (+0.3bps), OATs (+1.0bps) and BTPs (+1.1bps) seeing modest sell-offs, while 10yr gilts (-2.2bps) outperformed. Market sentiment in Europe was not helped by the May flash PMIs, which showed a deepening downturn in activity as the energy shock weighed. The Eurozone composite PMI fell to its lowest level since October 2023, at just 47.5. In France, the composite PMI fell to 43.5, its lowest since November 2020. Even in the UK, which had held up relatively better in April, the May composite PMI was also in contractionary territory at 48.5. Overall, there was a consistent theme of European weakness, raising fears that the energy shock was having a bigger impact than first thought.

Japan CPI came in softer than expected this morning but it hasn't really moved JGB yields. April CPI came in at 1.4% yoy (1.6% expected), with core the same (1.7% expected). Ex fresh food and energy it came in three tenths lower than expected at 1.9%. Base effects and efforts to shield consumers from the impact of higher oil seem to have helped. The probably of a hike in June has gone down from 82.5% to around 78% according to futures. See our economist’s review of the data here.

Finally, there were a few other US data releases that were generally on the positive side. Weekly initial jobless claims fell slightly to 209k in the week ending May 16 (vs. 210k expected), taking the 4-week moving average down to 202.5k, its lowest level since January 2024. US housing starts for April also fell by less than expected, to an annualised pace of 1.465m (vs. 1.410m expected). The exception was the Philly Fed business outlook, which saw a sharp drop to a five-month low.

Looking ahead, data releases include UK retail sales for April, the Ifo Institute’s business climate indicator for Germany in May, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for the US in May. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, along with the ECB’s Vujcic, Kazimir and Muller, and the Fed’s Waller.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 08:07

Hormuz Shock Raises Recession Risk As Retailers Sound Alarm On Consumer Stress

Zero Hedge -

Hormuz Shock Raises Recession Risk As Retailers Sound Alarm On Consumer Stress

Oil market experts at Rapidan Energy Group warn that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger an oil shock severe enough to hit consumers hard and push the economy into a downturn on a scale approaching that of the 2008 Great Recession.

That warning was reinforced by a UBS analyst, who cautioned that sharper slowdowns for working-class households could emerge this summer as gasoline pump prices average north of $4.50 per gallon this week and collide with already stretched budgets.

Bloomberg cites a Rapidan note stating that its base case assumes Hormuz reopens in July, with Brent crude peaking near $130 a barrel and global oil demand falling by about 2.6 million barrels per day.

But if the Hormuz chokepoint remains heavily disrupted into late summer, between August and September, then the market would need demand destruction to offset the supply shock, potentially pushing global oil consumption into an annual decline in 2026, the analysts pointed out.

This would mean that if the average pump price of $4.50 per gallon for 87 octane is already high, then demand destruction, as we've outlined, would occur at or above $5, and the real consumer pain would only begin from there.

"The current macro setup is less extreme than the 1970s or 2007 to 08," Rapidan analysts said, citing economies that are less oil-intensive and more robust monetary policy frameworks.

They noted, "But that relatively stronger starting point doesn't neutralize the risk that continued oil price spikes would exacerbate financial and macroeconomic vulnerabilities."

A delayed opening of the Hormuz chokepoint would increase the third-quarter oil supply deficit to 6 million barrels per day as inventories fall toward dangerously low levels, the analysts warned.

Even an early-August restart would not bring immediate relief, as inventories would continue to slide into early fall while Gulf production and shipments normalize.

JPMorgan analysts recently warned that the world is spiraling toward a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of crude oil if the maritime chokepoint is blocked through June.

In a separate note on Friday, UBS analyst Matthew Cowley warned, "The coming months could see persistent inflation risks expose the economy to sharper slowdowns in low- and middle-income household spending."

During earnings season this week, mega-retailer Walmart signaled that its customer base is already beginning to crack: "We see that in the most recent period, the number of gallons that customers fill up with when they come to our fuel stations fell below ten for the first time since 2022. That's an indication of stress."

Walmart's customer base is important to monitor because it functions as a real-time proxy for consumer sentiment, especially among low- and middle-income households.

Those comments from Walmart are particularly alarming when coupled with consumer concerns from Wayfair, Lowe's, and Home Depot this week:

The early signs of stress are already emerging. Top retailers are flagging stress on low- and middle-income households, and the risk now is that a sustained fuel price shock could feed directly into demand destruction, persistent inflation, and broader growth weakness if the Hormuz chokepoint remains shuttered for the next couple of months.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 07:45

Starmer Government Doubles Down On Anti-Free Speech Policies

Zero Hedge -

Starmer Government Doubles Down On Anti-Free Speech Policies

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

When hundreds of thousands of Britons joined the recent Unite the Kingdom rally, the government of Keir Starmer wanted them to know that they were being watched for possible arrest. By deploying facial recognition systems and invoking the United Kingdom’s anti-free speech laws, Starmer’s government made it clear that it would not tolerate anything it considered hateful or xenophobic, on the heels of its losses to Reform UK in council elections.

Under its Online Safety Act, the government removed posts from social media platforms such as TikTok, including statements about Reform UK’s immigration policies.

Among those impacted was Reform UK’s shadow home secretary Zia Yusuf who reportedly had “two videos removed from TikTok—one for a user report under the UK’s Online Safety Act and another for hate speech.” They were later restored.

Starmer’s government also reportedly prevented speakers from the rally from entering the county, citing concerns they might “incite” the crowd.

The Times reported last year that the government was arresting 30 people a day for speech crimes.

In the last two decades, free speech protections in the U.K. have been eviscerated.

The criminalization of speech has expanded exponentially as individuals and groups call the police to silence those who criticize them or advocate opposing views.

Even silent prayer or “toxic ideologies” can lead to arrest. Expressing concerns over Western cultural values is now treated as an admission of “right-wing ideology,” warranting investigation. A few years ago, a neo-Nazi living with his mother was found to have a room filled with hateful symbols and material.

Judge Peter Lodder dismissed free speech concerns over the defendant’s possessions with a truly Orwellian flourish: “I do not sentence you for your political views, but the extremity of those views informs the assessment of dangerousness.” Calling the defendant “a right-wing extremist,” Mr. Lodder said the contents of his room were evidence of “enthusiasm for this repulsive and toxic ideology.”

One of the most notorious cases has been dropped with a belated apology.  Last year, I wrote about how Graham Linehan became the latest comedian to be arrested as part of the global crackdown on free speech.

The co-creator of the U.K. sitcom “Father Ted” was arrested at London Heathrow Airport, allegedly over several social media posts criticizing transgender activists. The posts were not jokes, but political commentary.

Now, the Metropolitan Police has issued an apology that he should not have been detained by five armed officers at Heathrow Airport in September 2025. It took five months, but the Met Police apologized for how his case was handled and vowed to learn from the experience.

Met Police Inspector Matt Hume declared, “I apologize to Mr. Linehan for the shortcomings in this investigation. The Met Police remains committed to lawful, proportionate policing and to learning from failings when they arise. I accept that the service provided was not acceptable and recognize the distress and impact this matter has caused Mr. Linehan.”

The problem is that it is not clear why they concluded that they made a mistake but the laws are so sweeping in their language that the police can act in the most arbitrary and ideological fashion.

There will be no discipline of those who ordered the arrest, or apparently, further explanation of why this case, as opposed to hundreds of others, was viewed as improper.

The most that Hume would offer is that, while insisting that the arrest was entirely lawful, it was “flawed” because officers focused on the transgender criticism “rather than the alleged incitement to violence,” according to The Telegraph.

Linehan correctly noted in a post to X that “This, from the ‘apology’ I received from the police, doesn’t sound like an apology.”

That is because it is not a real apology.

It is an effort to spin and discard a high-profile controversy while reaffirming the very policies and laws that allow for such abuses to occur in the United Kingdom.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 07:20

Mortgage Rates Hit 9-Month High, Freezing Out Homebuyers In Peak Season

Zero Hedge -

Mortgage Rates Hit 9-Month High, Freezing Out Homebuyers In Peak Season

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to its highest level since August, threatening to derail the spring selling season as higher Treasury yields and renewed inflation pressure push loan costs higher and freeze more prospective buyers out of the market.

Freddie Mac data released Thursday show the 30-year fixed mortgage rate for the week ending May 21 jumped to 6.51% from 6.36%, the highest rate since Aug. 28, 2025.

Soaring mortgage rates stem from turmoil in the Gulf region, with the U.S.-Iran war driving up oil prices, inflation, and bond yields over the last three months. Rates on 10-year Treasuries hit their highest level in one year, while 30-year yields neared 2007 highs. 

Mortgage rates fell to around 6% in early February, lifting hopes for a housing market rebound after three consecutive years of depressed activity. Yet hopes for a robust selling season were dashed because the conflict in the Middle East began in late February, and once the Hormuz chokepoint closed, energy prices surged, followed by rates.

"Each uptick in rates narrows the pool of buyers who can make the numbers work," Realtor.com analyst Anthony Smith told News Corp.

The impact of higher rates is significant for buyers: Before the conflict, a buyer with a $2,500 monthly budget and 20% down could afford about a $400,000 home at a 6% mortgage rate, but only about $384,000 at a 6.5% rate.

Realtor.com analyst Jake Krimmel told Bloomberg, "We've been surprised so far that we haven't seen deterioration like we did this time last year." 

"May is where the rubber will meet the road because that's when things tend to really start picking up," Krimmel said. 

The end result of surging rates over the last few months was flat existing-home sales in April, well below Bloomberg Consensus expectations.

The continued housing market slowdown, which feels like an eternity for those in the industry, has pressured businesses tied to housing, such as furniture manufacturers, home builders, mortgage lenders, and real estate brokerages.

Home improvement retailers such as Home Depot and Lowe's warned this week that consumers remain reluctant to splurge on big-ticket home improvement items, as elevated mortgage rates, high home prices, energy inflation, weakening sentiment, and broader macroeconomic uncertainty weigh on demand.

Lowe's CEO Marvin Ellison warned analysts earlier this week that the housing market is the "most difficult" since the financial crisis. 

He continued:

I think overall this has been the most difficult housing market that I've faced in this business since the financial crisis. And as Brandon mentioned, it's almost exclusively or disproportionately on the DIY customer.

That's the majority of where our revenue comes from. And so I look at it from this perspective, you know, we've delivered four quarters of positive comps in an environment where the DIY has faced more economic pressure than I've ever seen before.

Housing affordability for first-time homebuyers remains at a four-decade low.

"Decisions made during the period of ultra-low interest rates coming out of the pandemic are still shaping behavior," said Torsten Slok, the chief economist at Apollo Global Management, citing the unwillingness of homebuyers with sub-4% rates to move. "The shift to higher rates has fundamentally changed the economics."

"If you're looking for relief on 30-year conventional mortgage rates, you're not going to get it anytime soon," said Kevin Flanagan, head of investment strategy at WisdomTree.

Nick Barta, a regional manager at Security First Financial, a Colorado-based mortgage company, told Bloomberg that the surge in rates because of the US-Iran war has had a chilling effect on the industry so far. 

"All you hear about is gas prices and higher interest rates," said Barta, who has worked in the mortgage industry for nearly four decades. "It freaks people out."

President Trump has directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to begin buying $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to pressure mortgage rates lower.

"FHFA and the administration are actively evaluating a range of tools and policy options to improve affordability and expand access to homeownership for American families," Federal Housing Finance Agency Director William Pulte said.

Sarah Wolfe, a senior economist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, warned that higher mortgage rates continue to leave an entire generation of homebuyers stuck in rentals.

"They want the same things as the generation before them," Wolfe said, "and the bar to entry is getting higher and higher."

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 06:55

10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

What’s the Sticker Price of Exorbitant Privilege? A clean Substack walk-through of the dollar’s “exorbitant privilege” — what reserve status earns the US, what it costs, and what would actually shake it. The de-dollarization chatter usually skips the math; this one shows it. That raises the obvious question: what would it take for the US to lose its privilege now? Where is the tipping point? Is it just about the US fiscal and macro fundamentals? Carolin Pflueger (U Chicago) and Pierre Yared (Columbia) don’t think so. (The Two Cents)

The Dangerous Brew That’s Rattling Bond Markets: The WSJ on the cocktail of fiscal deficits, sticky inflation, and central-bank cross-pressure showing up in the long end. Read with the WaPo piece on what those yields do to households. A mix of debt, inflation and populism has changed the interest rate landscape since 2020. A mix of debt, inflation and populism has changed the interest rate landscape since 2020. (Wall Street Journal) see also Trump’s war is wrecking Trump’s economy: The U.S. war on Iran has upended energy markets and gut-punched the global economy, especially countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. But the United States is not nearly as immune to the economic fallout from the war as U.S. President Donald Trump seems to think—and it is starting to show. There is a whole slew of economic indicators flashing “check engine” across the dashboard of the U.S. economy that show that the prolonged war in the Middle East is reigniting inflation, fouling supply chains, and dampening hopes of a tax-cut-fueled growth spurt this year. (Washington Post)

SpaceX not the behemoth everyone thought: The prospectus shows just how much the IPO depends on expectations for future growth and investor servility to Musk — as opposed to the current underlying business. Axios on the leaked SpaceX financials that look a lot less Mag-7 than the secondary market implied. Read alongside the $15B Anthropic deal — both stories are about who is actually paying whom in this AI buildout. (Axios)

Is Nvidia too big to fail? ‘You’re clearly at the centre of everything’ The global stock market has virtually become “One Big Trade”, according to Goldman Sachs. “AI Is Penetrating Every Corner of Financial Markets”, notes Apollo. Is it really just one big Nvidia trade though? (FT Alphaville free)

Used EVs Are Now the Most Affordable Cars. Here’s How to Buy a Good One. With rising oil prices and more used EVs coming off leases, the total cost of ownership equation has flipped. The WSJ on the surprising flip: a three-year-old EV with most of its warranty intact is now often the cheapest car on the lot. Useful for anyone with a kid heading to college. Here’s How to Buy a Good One. With rising oil prices and more used EVs coming off leases, the total cost of ownership equation has flipped (Wall Street Journal)

Why mortgages and car loans are getting more expensive: Yields for some Treasurys hit their highest level since 2007 — and consumers are starting to feel it. A clean WaPo explainer on the long-rate move and what it does to the household balance sheet. Useful for clients who only ever see the headline Fed Funds number. (Washington Post)

FBI seeks US-wide access to license plate cameras, wants “data in near real time” FBI will pay vendors Flock and Motorola Solutions to help it track and search for vehicles nationwide. Ars on the Bureau quietly asking for a real-time feed from the country’s patchwork of private and municipal plate readers. The surveillance architecture has been built piecemeal for a decade; this is the centralization request. (Ars Technica)

How the Bird Eye Was Pushed to an Evolutionary Extreme: The bird retina is one of the most energetically expensive tissues in the animal kingdom, yet it doesn’t use the energy advantage of oxygen. New research finally explains how this is possible. (Quanta Magazine)

Japan is gripped by mass allergies. A 1950s project is to blame: BBC Future on the postwar Japanese reforestation program — millions of cedars planted for timber, no follow-up plan, and now nationwide hay fever as the karmic dividend. A small parable on policy half-lives. A decision made 70 years ago to reforest vast swathes of Japan with just two kinds of tree has come back to haunt the country. (BBC)

•  Retrospective — The Entire Series of MB&F Legacy Machine Watches: Monochrome runs through every Legacy Machine MB&F has built since 2011. A satisfying tour of one of the few independent watchmakers doing genuinely new things rather than re-issuing the 1960s catalogue. (Monochrome Watches)

Video of the day: The Album That Rewired Modern Pop: Believe (1998)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Vimal Kapur, CEO and Chairman of DJIA component Honeywell International. The firm is in the midst of dividing into three companies: Honeywell Automation, Honeywell Aerospace, and Solstice Advanced Materials. The firm has fully integrated AI as the intelligence layer in all of its automation processes and products.

 

America’s Small-Business Boom Comes Without New Jobs

Source: Bloomberg

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

US Removes UN Gaza Rapporteur Francesca Albanese From Sanctions List

Zero Hedge -

US Removes UN Gaza Rapporteur Francesca Albanese From Sanctions List

Authored by Owen Evans via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The United States has removed U.N. special rapporteur Francesca Albanese from its sanctions list, according to a May 20 notice posted by the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control.

Francesca Albanese, U.N. special rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian territories, attends a news conference during the Human Rights Council at the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, on March 24, 2026. Denis Balibouse/Reuters

The notice said Albanese, listed as Francesca Paola Albanese, had been deleted from the Specially Designated Nationals list under an International Criminal Court-related sanctions program.

The sanctions barred her from entering the United States and banking there.

The move came a week after a federal judge temporarily blocked enforcement of the sanctions, finding that the Trump administration likely violated Albanese's free-speech rights by imposing the measures.

Albanese, an Italian lawyer based in Tunisia, serves as the "U.N. special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967."

She has repeatedly accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, allegations Israel has rejected.

The United States had placed Albanese under sanctions in July 2025 under an executive order targeting people accused of assisting International Criminal Court actions against the United States or its allies.

"The United States has repeatedly condemned and objected to the biased and malicious activities of Albanese that have long made her unfit for service as a Special Rapporteur. Albanese has spewed unabashed antisemitism, expressed support for terrorism, and open contempt for the United States, Israel, and the West," U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote at the time.

The sanctions barred U.S. persons from doing business with her and blocked any property or interests in property under U.S. jurisdiction.

Albanese has denied any allegations of anti-Semitism.

Albanese's husband and daughter, who is a U.S. citizen, sued the Trump administration in February this year, alleging that the U.S. sanctions are "effectively debanking her and making it nearly impossible to meet the needs of her daily life."

In October 2024, Albanese published a U.N. report titled "Genocide as colonial erasure," in which she argued that Israel's campaign in Gaza should be viewed within a broader "settler-colonial" framework.

"Since its establishment, Israel has treated the occupied people as a hated encumbrance and threat to be eradicated, subjecting millions of Palestinians, for generations, to everyday indignities, mass killing, mass incarceration, forced displacement, racial segregation, and apartheid. Advancing its goal of 'Greater Israel' threatens to erase the Indigenous Palestinian population," she wrote.

The "settler-colonial" framework is often associated with left-wing, postcolonial, and critical-theory scholarship.

Australian free-market think tank Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) explicitly calls settler-colonial theory an "unsettling Marxist ideology" as the academic field was founded by British-born prominent social anthropologist and historian Patrick Wolfe, who drew on Marxist theory.

In 2024, a United Nations watchdog called for an immediate probe into alleged ethical abuses by Albanese, which said that she had allegedly requested payments for work done in her official capacity, something it called illegal.

U.N. Watch filed a complaint with U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk, demanding that Albanese be removed from her role.

In a March 2025 response, the U.N. Coordination Committee did not remove Albanese or find a formal breach, but said the proposed honorarium arrangement was "inappropriate."

"The Committee was also satisfied by the confirmation from the Special Rapporteur that she has not and will not accept payment or honoraria of any kind for work done in her official U.N. capacity," it said.

In 2025, Israel withdrew from the U.N. Human Rights Council (UNHRC), citing "ongoing and unrelenting institutional bias" against the Jewish state.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar, in a social media post announcing the withdrawal, cited U.S. President Donald Trump's decision announced the previous day to pull the United States out of the council.

"Israel joins the United States and will not participate in the UNHRC," Sa'ar wrote.

Trump announced in February 2025 that the United States would withdraw from the Human Rights Council and also would not resume funding of UNRWA, the U.N. agency that addresses Palestinians and is the largest employer in the Gaza Strip.

The United States previously froze payments to UNRWA in 2018, during Trump's first term. They were restored under the Biden administration but stopped again after it was alleged that at least 12 agency employees participated in terrorist group Hamas's Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel.

Hillel Neuer, executive director of U.N. Watch, told a House Foreign Affairs committee in January 2024 that 1,200 of UNRWA's 13,000 Gaza employees belonged to Hamas and that 6,000 of them had family members in it.

Reuters, Dan M. Berger, and Aldgra Fredly contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 06:30

Chinese EV Makers Turn Abandoned Western Factories Into Global Launchpads

Zero Hedge -

Chinese EV Makers Turn Abandoned Western Factories Into Global Launchpads

Chinese EV companies are rapidly expanding overseas by snapping up unused factory space from struggling Western automakers, many of whom are downsizing traditional gasoline-car production, according to Nikkei.

Stellantis recently opened plants in France and Spain to partnerships with Dongfeng and Leapmotor. At the same time, Geely is expected to restart an idle production line at a Spanish factory owned by Ford Motor Company. The trend reflects a broader shift in the auto industry: Chinese EV makers are expanding aggressively while many legacy manufacturers are cutting capacity.

UBS analysts predict Chinese brands could control 35% of the global auto market by 2030, up from 25% this year, helped by China’s low-cost battery supply chain. Their report warned that foreign automakers face “structural market share loss” as competition intensifies.

Nikkei writes that building cars locally has become a practical way for Chinese companies to avoid tariffs and satisfy governments pushing for domestic manufacturing. BNP Paribas analyst James Kan said the strategy helps local economies “feel that they’re getting a cut,” making expansion politically easier.

Europe has become a key battleground. After facing steep EU tariffs, Leapmotor said it would source many components within Europe for production at Stellantis facilities. The company also plans to begin manufacturing in Brazil, where tariffs on imported EVs are set to increase again this summer.

But owning overseas factories brings new complications. Citigroup analyst Harald Hendrikse joked he was “a little amused” watching Chinese firms buy European plants because they are about to learn “how difficult it is to do business” there. Labor costs, regulations, and local sourcing rules could significantly raise expenses.

BYD has already faced setbacks abroad. After renovating a former Ford plant in Brazil, the company became embroiled in controversy over alleged “slavery-like” labor conditions tied to construction work. Even so, BYD is still exploring additional factories in Latin America and Europe.

Many Chinese automakers prefer acquiring dormant facilities instead of building new plants from scratch, which one industry executive described as requiring “tons of extra preparation work.” Companies are carefully comparing costs, efficiency, and demand before making investments.

Meanwhile, European manufacturers are struggling with underused factories. Volkswagen plans to reduce global production capacity by millions of vehicles this decade. CEO Oliver Blume acknowledged the company still has too much unused capacity in Europe, though he later said there are “currently no plans or discussions” with Chinese manufacturers.

For some executives, these partnerships could solve problems on both sides: Chinese EV makers gain faster access to foreign markets, while Western automakers find new uses for factories that would otherwise sit idle.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 05:45

Elon Musk Offers To Fund Lawsuit Against UK Police In Henry Nowak Stabbing Tragedy

Zero Hedge -

Elon Musk Offers To Fund Lawsuit Against UK Police In Henry Nowak Stabbing Tragedy

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Elon Musk has stepped forward to hold UK police accountable in what appears to be one of the most disturbing policing failures to emerge from Britain in years.

The tech mogul publicly offered to bankroll a wrongful death lawsuit against officers who allegedly prioritized an attacker's claims of "racism" over saving the life of 18-year-old Henry Nowak.

Musk's intervention comes as harrowing bodycam footage from the scene plays out in Southampton Crown Court during the ongoing murder trial of Vickrum Singh Digwa, the 23-year-old man of Indian Sikh heritage accused of stabbing Nowak four times with a 21cm blade.

He followed up with another pointed question: "Has any action been taken against the police officers who handcuffed this boy and made him bleed to death in the street? Who are they?"

In a further post, Musk declared: "Unconscionable. I am happy to fund a wrongful death lawsuit against these disgusting excuses for law enforcement. They damn well better have been fired."

Nowak, a first-year accountancy and finance student at the University of Southampton from Essex, was walking home from a night out with university football teammates when he was attacked. Prosecutors say Digwa stabbed him four times after Nowak tried to escape.

When police arrived, bodycam footage captured Nowak leaning against a wall, supported by Digwa's father. The father told officers: "He keeps dropping down, so I am just trying to keep him up."

Nowak repeatedly said "Can't breathe" and told them he had been stabbed. Instead of rushing medical aid, officers handcuffed the bleeding teenager while arresting him for suspected assault - based on claims from Digwa's family that Nowak had racially abused them. One officer responded to his desperate pleas about being stabbed with: "I don't think you have, mate."

Henry then passed out and died, drowned in his own blood.

Digwa's brother told the emergency call handler: "We just got attacked racially by some white person... Physically attacked my brother, we're Sikhs, we wear turbans, and he attacked my brother."

Videos shown to jurors captured Digwa and his brother accusing Nowak of a racial attack. Nowak denied it. Digwa was heard saying: "No one stabbed you bro, you're up. You're drunk." Digwa's father added: "He's pretending, a minute ago he was talking to you guys. Now he's trying to get up and going to leave."

Digwa openly carried the large 21cm shastar - a ceremonial Sikh blade - in public, along with the smaller religiously mandated kirpan. Prosecutors noted questions over why the larger weapon was present.

Digwa denies murder. His mother, Kiran Kaur, faces charges of assisting an offender by allegedly removing the knife from the scene.

Musk's offer has ignited fury over what critics call two-tier policing - where accusations of racism against a native Brit appear to override clear medical emergencies. No officers have been named or disciplined publicly. As of today, no action has been confirmed against those involved.

This case has drawn parallels to failures where authorities appear more concerned with perceived slights than protecting life. Nowak was a young British student simply walking home. Digwa's legal team argues self-defence in the "heat of the moment" following the alleged verbal exchange.

Yet the bodycam evidence, now public through court proceedings, paints a picture of a dying teen ignored while his attacker's narrative took precedence.

Musk's willingness to fund a civil suit underscores a growing frustration with institutional inaction. The trial continues at Southampton Crown Court. Digwa denies the charges.

Henry Nowak's death should force a reckoning. When police treat a stabbed British teen as the aggressor based on unverified claims from the attacker's family - while he bleeds out saying he can't breathe - something has gone fundamentally wrong with priorities in law enforcement.

Religious exemptions allowing large blades in public, combined with a policing culture that appears to elevate certain accusations above immediate life-saving duties, leave ordinary citizens vulnerable.

Musk's intervention shines a light where so-called mainstream coverage has lagged. Justice for Henry Nowak demands more than a trial verdict - it requires naming those officers, holding them accountable, and ending the failures that let a young man die in the street while pleading for help.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 05:00

Shipping Turmoil Remains Largely Contained To Gulf, For Now

Zero Hedge -

Shipping Turmoil Remains Largely Contained To Gulf, For Now

The world's most critical maritime energy chokepoint has now been closed for 12 weeks, leaving seaborne energy supply chains heavily disrupted. Still, one UBS analyst points out that the shock has yet to meaningfully spill over into broader global shipping outside the Gulf area, suggesting the disruption remains largely contained for now.

"It looks like non-energy related global shipping traffic is running just 4% below normal in May - a bit better than April," UBS analyst Arend Kapteyn wrote in a note to clients Thursday morning titled "The State Of Global Shipping Disruption."

Kapteyn continued:

Limited signs of spillovers to non-energy shipping (so far)

In our April 30 note, we showed how global oil/gas shipping traffic had fallen by 13% from pre-Middle East conflict levels—closely matching the disruption through the Strait of Hormuz—and how the various regions were trying to reroute ships to find alternative energy supplies. Today's chart examines whether that energy shock is spilling over into broader shipping activity. A key question is whether fuel shortages are beginning to weigh on overall trade flows, providing an additional transmission channel to global supply chains. PMI delivery times have already lengthened by around 1¾ standard deviations, but it remains unclear how much reflects product shortages versus shipping constraints.

The chart shows our "momentum" measure of global shipping traffic—defined as tonnes of cargo multiplied by nautical miles traveled per day. We've aggregated the daily data at a monthly frequency (May is the average of the daily data month-to-date), and standardize using z-score over the full sample. Oil and gas shipping has continued to deteriorate, now around 4 standard deviations below normal. By contrast, non-energy shipping weakened through April (-2 standard deviations) but has partially recovered in May (now around -0.7 standard deviations). In level terms, non-energy related shipping/cargo traffic fell 5% in March (vs the prior 12m average) and 13% in April but is now back to just 4% below normal. In Asia—where energy shortages appear most acute—non-energy volumes were 10% below normal in April but are now running slightly above normal. In the Gulf, however, non-energy shipping remains severely disrupted (around 83% below normal), reflecting the broader impact of the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck on both energy and non-energy flows.

Meanwhile, Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc recently warned on CNBC that a "new wake-up call" for global trade nears if the Hormuz chokepoint remains shuttered through June.

Then there was a note from UBS analyst Pierre Lafourcade last week that said, "Supply chain stress is rising at its fastest pace since the early pandemic."

The full note can be read by Professional subscribers here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Signs that energy-flow disruptions are spreading into the broader shipping complex remain limited for now, with the stress still largely contained to the Gulf region.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 04:15

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