US Factory Orders Surged In November

While sentiment is sagging to multi-year lows, 'hard' data is pushing growth forecasts higher (GDPNOW) and holding stocks at record highs.

This morning we get a fresh glimpse at America's manufacturing segment - hard data - with US Factory Orders (admittedly for November) surging 2.7% MoM (significantly better than the +1.6% MoM expected), bouncing strongly from the 1.3% MoM decline in October. 

This dragged orders up 5.4% year-over-year...

Source: Bloomberg

This was the biggest monthly advance since May 2025.

Core Orders (ex transportation) rose 0.2% MoM, also rebounding from a 0.1% MoM decline in October...

Source: Bloomberg

The final print for Durable Goods Orders were all in line with the flash prints.

Of course, this data remains significantly stale (and we face the possibility of another government shutdown to screw things up again), but overall, the trend is your friend (and supported by strong jobless claims data).

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 10:06



 

 

At The Money: Building an ETF with Wes Gray, Alpha Architect (January 28, 2026)

Have you ever had a great investment strategy and thought to yourself, “Hey, this is really good! It should be an ETF!” It is much easier than it used to be to create a strategy and put it into an ETF wrapper.

Full transcript below.

~~~

About this week’s guest:

Wes Gray is founder and CEO of ETF architect. He helps managers turn strategies into ETFs by providing turnkey, white label platforms to handle all of the complex and expensive office operations.

For more info, see:

Professional website

Masters in Business

Personal Bio

LinkedIn

Twitter

~~~

 

Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

 

TRANSCRIPT:

Mutual funds, trusts, and ETFs. Have you ever wondered how these are put together? Are you an analyst, strategist, or fund manager that has a really good idea? Have you thought about launching a fund to employ that idea? I’m Barry Ritholtz, and on today’s edition of At The Money, we’re going to discuss how to build your own exchange-traded fund or ETF.

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio. Let’s bring in Wes Gray of ETF architect. He helps managers turn strategies into ETFs by providing turnkey white label platforms that handle. Legal compliance operations, portfolio management, allowing sponsors to focus on the idea and distribution, and Wes also runs the Alpha Architect Shop as well.

Full disclosure, Wes Gray and ETF architect are helping my firm, Ritholtz Wealth Management launch a new ETF later this year.

Barry Ritholtz: So Wes, let’s start with the basics. If I’m someone with a novel strategy and a good idea for a ticker, what are the elements that determine whether or not this ETF launches or whether it just dies on the vine?

Wes Gray: It’s gonna come down to low fees, capital and passion in ETF market, as you know, you gotta have low fees for the most part, or people aren’t gonna buy your product. And low fees means you also gotta have a lot of capital to back this thing. ’cause you gotta be around for at least three to five years to tell your story and then you gotta have the passion.

You’re in a market competing with monopolies like BlackRock and Vanguard. So you gotta be someone like a Perth Toll that we talked about previously where you just have to go knock on doors and tell people why your product and your story is so great.

Barry Ritholtz: I’m curious as to the timeline from the original conception to Trading Day.

What’s a realistic timeline and where are the common bottlenecks?

Wes Gray: We generally tell folks, four months, you sign the letter of intent and you’re ready to whoop it on. We can get this thing out the door in plus or minus four months. Obviously that could go out to four years, depending on your, your own internal issues.

But we’ve got this thing, so checklist and automated. At this point, if you want to launch in four months for like a relatively straightforward ETF, that’s gonna be possible.

Barry Ritholtz: Four months seems really short, but I guess I’m imagining how long it takes to accumulate enough seed capital launch. How much money under management do you need to launch an ETF? How does that get structured? What’s the usual launch dollar amount?

Wes Gray: This is a moving target. And let’s say four or five years ago we would’ve said, Hey, 5 million minimum. Now we tell people 25 million and I’m about to probably move it up to 50 million. And, really it’s, it’s not because of the operating cost of the ETF, it’s to convey credibility to the marketplace.

We, need, like people just, everyone kind of knows like, yeah, where’s your break even? You know, ’cause I want you to be in business three to five years from now, and usually that break even in people’s minds is 25 to 50 mil. High barrier to entry just on that.

Now, how do you seed these things?

Well, there’s basically two methods. You either seed with cash. So you launch the ETF and people go open up their Schwab account and click the button and you know, pay cash to buy your ETF. Or you can seed it with property where there, it’s a little bit convoluted, but there’s this thing called Section 351 where you can actually contribute property tax free to seed the ETF.

So basically, cash or property is the two methods you can use.

Barry Ritholtz: And I’m assuming property is usually individual stocks or bonds. Is that right?

Wes Gray: You got it. So, so if you have a portfolio of securities, public securities that naturally fit in the CTF, you can contribute those tax-free. And then that, that property serves as initial seed for essentially the launch of the ETF.

Barry Ritholtz: You mentioned break even. Take me into the minutia of what the backend of this looks like – legal, audit, administration, listing distribution, marketing. What are the big costs that any ETF manager has run? Where do people kind of make mistakes with these?

Wes Gray: I’ll kind of reverse the, the question and, and let me tell you what we’ve done, the cost and what you have to do, because what you’re asking about is a total dumpster fire behind the scenes, but essentially for our platform is you show up with the spreadsheet, tell us what to do. And you go market and distribute this thing, comma compliantly. ’cause we have oversight responsibilities. That’s your two primary jobs.

We’re gonna deal with all the dumpster fire behind the scenes and the generic cost of doing this to launch an ETF, again, all sandbag for a generic ETF, just with easy numbers. You’re looking at a 50k startup, soup to nuts. Which is not the bad news.

The bad news is the ongoing. Cost to deal with all the aspects you just talked about, and you know, it’s plus or minus, but you’re looking around 200K a year. What the heck does that mean as a business, uh, setup? Well, it, you know, if you charge 1%, your breakeven is 20 million.

If you charge 20 basis points, which is a much, you know, much more marketable, your breakeven is a hundred million. And then everything in between. So, so obviously your breakeven depends on your fee, but you’re looking at 200 k burn a year on average.

Barry Ritholtz:  Let’s say someone comes to you with a systematic strategy. How do they decide whether or not this is based on an index and running it fairly statically versus a more active ETF that’s run more dynamically.

Wes Gray: This advice has also changed over time. We’re we’re, in the old days, we would say, Hey, index active, there’s a bigger trade off there now.

It’s almost always the case. Just go active. Even if your strategy is a hundred percent systematic, why is that? Well, there’s just low overhead cost. I don’t have to pay for a third party index agent. I don’t gotta pay for third party service providers. And, and I also have a little bit more flexibility at the margin.

So for example, let’s say I’m on an index versus an active, and I’m doing the exact same strategy, but we know this week there’s gonna be three Fed meetings and. You know, the world’s gonna blow up. I might not wanna rebalance this week, I’ll just punt to next week. That’s easy in an active strategy, in an index strategy that’s possible — but the paperwork trail and the compliance to be able to facilitate, that’s essentially a nightmare.

Which means most index funds just follow the book no matter what, on unlike little minutiae decisions like this. We recommend active at the margin.

Barry Ritholtz: You must see a ton of different strategies. What do you see that really. Shouldn’t be put into an ETF. What, what kind of strategy, even if a manager is passionate and excited about the idea, what, what are the sort of red flags that, “Hey, you don’t want this in an ETF?”

Wes Gray: I don’t know if I’m weird or just old school or conservative, but, but if I’m not gonna recommend this to my parents or my, my grandma. Why we have this in an ETF where anyone with a Schwab account can click the button and have a party, right?

What does that mean? Things like double levered, triple levered, whatevers, uh, a lot of these gimmicky products that are extremely expensive and they have tons of embedded costs via like swaps and a lot of other things that aren’t transparent. I can’t stand those products personally.

Does that mean that people won’t do ’em? Well, of course not. If you can sell out to people that are gonna pay 1% for your stupid idea, great. But I’m not a big fan of having those products in the ETF marketplace.

Barry Ritholtz: You’re not a big fan of the inverse three x levered Bitcoin.ETFI?

Wes Gray: No, I’m not a fan. And again, maybe I’m just a funny duddy and I need to move on in the world, but I’m just kinda, old school, I like, you know, low fees, transparent, tax efficient things that people can understand, uh, that presumably add value, uh, in the long game.

Barry Ritholtz: Let’s talk about, uh, some of the block and tackling once an ETF is created and launched, how, how do you think about. What I think about as someone who was on a trading desk as good market behavior, meaning tight spreads, reasonable liquidity, especially if the ETF is holding some assets that are perhaps a little less liquid than than average.

Wes Gray: That’s a great question and, and it creates a lot of confusion in the marketplace.

There are, there’s basically two types of ETFs, one we’ll call liquidity diamonds. These are ETFs that everyone knows, right – like SPY or Triple Q – where when you go and transact in those ETFs, it’s very likely that you’re actually trading shares with someone else who actually owns those ETF shares. That’s rare. Right, because it’s just such a huge market.

The other set of ETFs, which is 99.99% of ’em is normal ETFs, where when you go access the marketplace, you’re accessing what they call primary liquidity, which means you’re asking a market maker to give you a bid ask spread.

So the vast majority of that bid ask spread. Is simple to understand. What would it cost you as a trader to acquire or dispose of that basket of securities? For example, if I’m trading the triple levered Zimbabwe Bitcoin swaps, well, my bid ask spread might be 10%. Why? Where if I’m trading a basket that’s s and p 500 stocks, even though the ETF maybe never trade, but once a year.

We could trade a billion dollars of that ETF with a couple basis points of impact. So it just depends on the underlying basket liquidity.

Barry Ritholtz: You may notice I didn’t ask an obvious question, “Hey, do you go ETF structure or not?” I think we all understand the advantages of this structure — intraday liquidity, no phantom capital gains taxes.

What might send us in a different direction, an SMA, a mutual fund to trust when is an ETF really not the right structure.

Wes Gray: Another great question. So ETFs, and unfortunately we run ETF architects, so everything should be at an ETF, of course. Right? But you know, let, let’s be honest here, the big disadvantages of the ETF structure are transparency.

And you cannot close an ETF. So if we have a strategy where transparency is just not, you know, gonna play favorably for my shareholders, ’cause I, I don’t wanna expose this to the world every single day, then obviously you can’t do an ETF for all intents and purposes. The other one is capital constraints.

So let’s say we’re trading the microcap strategy and penny stocks, where the maximum amount of capital that can go in there is called 50 a hundred mil. Beyond that I’m gonna start blowing the whole concept up. You cannot stop or close an ETF, whereas an SMA or mutual fund, obviously they, they have tools in which you can actually capacity constrained, uh, the capital you take on.

Barry Ritholtz: We have noticed just a tremendous amount of flows are going to the big three – they go to BlackRock, they go to Vanguard, they go to State Street, and broad passive indexes have dominated a lot of the flows. The exception has been these kind of new, clever, unusual, active funds that occasionally catch people’s fancy.

If you’re thinking about creating an ETF, what sort of space should you really be looking in? What sort of strategy is the best ETF alternative to the core of a lot of people’s portfolios, the big indexes.

Wes Gray: I would basically focus on things that Vanguard or iShares can’t do well, which is you can usually gonna be very boutique, very niche strategies where it takes some special expertise to put those portfolios together and or you can’t jam a trillion dollars into the strategy.

Basically be good at being a boutique, ’cause you’re never gonna beat Vanguard at delivering scale trillion dollar market beta. That’s insanity.

Anytime you have a strategy that, that Vanguard is not offering because it’s either really complex, really differentiated, hard to explain, hard to build, hard to manufacturer, or there’s just not massive scalability, that’s where you’d wanna focus.

If you can put a trillion dollars in your strategy without any breaks, it’s probably not gonna work,  because Vanguard’s already doing it and we don’t wanna compete with the monopoly.

Barry Ritholtz: To wrap up, if you’re an analyst or strategist, or even fund manager, and you have a unique idea that you think will do well in the market as well, as well in the marketplace, you think others are willing to pay for it with their capital, consider launching your own ETF. You need about $25 million in assets and a cost of about a quarter million dollars annually, but the upside are potentially hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars in client assets.

I’m Barry Ritholtz and this is Bloomberg’s at the Money.

~~~

Find our entire music playlist for At the Money on Spotify.

 

The post At The Money: Building an ETF appeared first on The Big Picture.

Trump Says John Deere Will Invest $70 Million To Build Excavator Factory In North Carolina

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump announced on Jan. 27 that farm equipment maker John Deere will invest $70 million to build an excavator factory in North Carolina.

A John Deere excavator piles road salt in preparation for a winter storm at the Boston Public Works Department yard in Boston on Jan. 28, 2022. Scott Eisen/Getty Images

“It’s brand new, the best in the world. And I think it’s going to pay off very, very big,” the president said during an event in Iowa. “We don’t make them here. This is going to be the only excavator entirely made in the United States of America.”

The White House later said in a post on X that John Deere will build two new factories in the United States, including one in North Carolina that will help “move excavator production BACK to America.”

The second factory is a state-of-the-art distribution center, which will be built near Hebron, Indiana, the company said in a Jan. 27 statement. Both facilities are expected to open next year, it said.

John Deere said the North Carolina plant will manufacture excavators previously produced in Japan and will employ more than 150 workers when it opens.

The company said that it has broken ground on the Indiana project, a facility designed to streamline John Deere’s operations and ensure the timely delivery of equipment and parts. The project is expected to generate about 150 jobs, it added.

“Our investment in these new facilities underscores John Deere’s dedication to strengthening the backbone of American industry and supporting local economies,” John Deere CEO John May said. “We believe in building America, and these projects represent our intent to continue driving innovation and job creation in the United States.”

John Deere said last year that it would invest $20 billion in the United States over the next decade, calling it “a powerful signal” of its long-term commitment to building and growing domestically.

The company also made clear that it has no plans to shut down domestic manufacturing.

Texas Department of Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller speaks to The Epoch Times in Irving, Texas, on Sept. 22, 2023. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller welcomed the move on Jan. 27 and expressed hope that John Deere would choose Texas as the site to build its next factory.

“I applaud President Donald J. Trump for standing up for American workers and bringing manufacturing back home. John Deere’s decision to build new factories in the United States is a win for our economy, our workforce, and our national security,” Miller said in a post on Facebook.

“This is the kind of leadership that puts America first and rebuilds our industrial strength. Now let’s keep that momentum going and make sure the next one is built right here in Texas.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 09:50

Brent Surges To 4 Month High Above $70 After Trump Threatens Iran With Military Force

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

Brent Crude prices topped $70 per barrel - and $71 shortly after - early on Thursday for the first time since September, as U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran that a “massive armada” of U.S. Navy ships is headed to the Persian Gulf. 

At the time of writing, Brent Crude prices had jumped by 3.38% at $70.71. This was the highest in more than five months and the first time the international benchmark has topped $70 per barrel since early August. The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was also trading higher, up by 3.51% to $65.43. WTI topped $65 per barrel for the first time since September. 

After a week or so of relative calmness in the U.S. rhetoric toward Iran, which continued to brutally suppress mass protests, President Trump warned the Islamic Republic of a Venezuela-style “mission,” at least this is what the President suggested in a post on his Truth Social platform.

“A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose,” President Trump posted.

“It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela. Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary,” the President continued.

He urged Iran “to make a deal” pledging “NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS,” otherwise, President Trump said, “The next attack will be far worse! Don’t make that happen again.”

Markets reacted to the renewed tension in the world’s most important oil-producing and exporting region, and oil and gold soared.

Iran, for its part, said that its army is ready to “immediately and powerfully” respond to any possible attack by the United States.

“Our brave Armed Forces are prepared—with their fingers on the trigger—to immediately and powerfully respond to ANY aggression against our beloved land, air, and sea,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X.

If Trump tries to enforce a blockade, Iran will retaliate using asymmetrical means.

The Houthis caused havoc for global trade by hitting just 30 vessels over two years. Iranian attacks on merchant vessels in the Persian Gulf will have far greater impact.https://t.co/oLKvUzFrVd

— Esfandyar Batmanghelidj (@yarbatman) January 28, 2026

Commenting on the latest flare-up in the Middle East, ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said on Thursday, “Clearly, this more aggressive rhetoric has left the oil market nervous about the potential for supply disruptions.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 09:35

Rubio Announces Start Of US-Denmark-Greenland Talks Amid Arctic Security Push

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

Technical discussions between the United States, Denmark, and Greenland on improving Arctic security have begun, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday.

The talks originate from a working group created earlier this month during a Washington meeting including Rubio, Vice President JD Vance, and the foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland.

“It begins today and it will be a regular process,” Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “We’re going to try to do it in a way that isn’t like a media circus every time these conversations happen, because we think that creates more flexibility on both sides to arrive at a positive outcome.”

“We’ve got a little bit of work to do, but I think we’re going to wind up in a good place, and I think you’ll hear the same from our colleagues in Europe very shortly,” Rubio said.

The initiative comes after President Donald Trump has said that the United States must secure Greenland to increase national security against Russia and China. European allies have rebuked Trump’s approach.

Trump recently threatened tariffs on Denmark and other European nations opposing his Greenland overtures before brokering a preliminary framework with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last week, Trump said no military force would be used for acquiring the island, stating, “I don’t have to use force. I don’t want to use force. I won’t use force.”

Trump has portrayed the deal as providing total access to Greenland without payment or time limits, underscoring the Golden Dome missile defense system.

“There’s no end, there’s no time limit,” he said, adding, “We’re not doing a 99-year or a 10-year [deal] or anything else.”

The president assigned Rubio, Vance, and special envoy Steve Witkoff to work on the negotiations.

NATO has highlighted the framework’s goal of preventing Russia and China from establishing economic or military footholds on the island.

Alliance spokesperson Allison Hart noted discussions among Arctic member states to bolster collective security, stating that talks with Denmark and Greenland strive to deter adversaries.

“We need to defend the Arctic,” Rutte said at Davos.

Greenland lies along key missile trajectories, vast mineral resources, and emerging shipping routes.

The United States maintains Pituffik Space Force Base there, where it has situated early-warning radars.

Russia oversees extensive Arctic infrastructure, such as dozens of bases and icebreakers.

Russia’s robust Arctic infrastructure poses a direct challenge, with more than 50 revitalized Soviet-era installations, including six army bases, 10 radar stations, and more than 60 icebreakers—far outpacing the United States’ two.

“It is important to consistently strengthen Russia’s positions in the Arctic, comprehensively develop our country’s logistics capabilities, and ensure the development of a promising Arctic transport corridor from St. Petersburg to Vladivostok,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said in November 2025.

China, meanwhile, pursues a “Polar Silk Road” for influence through investments in infrastructure and resources, according to a 2024 RAND Corporation analysis.

Eric Cole, a former CIA officer and CEO of Secure Anchor, described Greenland as a “forward lookout post for the entire North Atlantic security architecture.”

“Greenland’s geographic position places it directly beneath the shortest flight paths between North America, Europe, and Eurasia, making it a natural vantage point for monitoring air and missile activity,” Cole told The Epoch Times.

“Sensors based in Greenland can track aircraft, space objects, and missile launches that would otherwise go undetected until much later in their trajectory. This early detection is critical for both U.S. and NATO forces, as it expands warning times and improves coordinated response options.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 09:00

The post The AI Bubble #24,736: Consumption Is Outrunning Wages appeared first on CEPR.

Futures Rise As Meta Jumps, Microsoft Plunges; Gold Just Won't Stop

Futures are higher, led by tech, after the first batch of Mag7 earnings with gold breaking new record highs again, rising as high as $5600. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.2% while the Nasdaq if barely in the green; pre-mkt it's a mixed picture with META (+7.9%) rising on higher than expected capex forecast, while MSFT (-6.6%) tumbles on... higher than expected capex forecast; TSLA is also modestly in the green, up +2.8%; AAPL reports today today then AMZN / GOOG next week. Cyclicals are trading higher led by Energy and Industrials and the AI theme also acting well as capex / fundamentals remain supportive of growth. The yield curve is twisting steeper with the USD flat. Commodities remain bid across all 3 complexes with WTI (Iranian supply fears) and precious (fiat incineration trade) the most notable. Today’s macro data focus is on jobless claims though given Powell’s comments yesterday, Friday’s PPI is more important.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Meta (META) rises 8% after the Facebook parent gave a revenue outlook that was much stronger than expected, which helped offset the surge in projected capex; Microsoft (MSFT) falls 6% after the software giant’s report featured an underwhelming read on growth in its Azure cloud-computing business. Analysts also noted higher-than-expected expenses. Tesla (TSLA) gains 2% after the electric-vehicle giant reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that topped the average analyst estimate. The company also announced a $2 billion investment in xAI and provided updates on its physical AI ventures (Nvidia (NVDA) -0.2%, Apple (AAPL) +0.5%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.3%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +1.7%)

• Rare earth stocks fall sharply after a report from Reuters said the Trump administration is backing away from plans to guarantee a minimum price for critical minerals projects, citing multiple sources. MP Materials has since refuted the report
• Celestica (CLS) falls 5% after the company reported its fourth-quarter results and gave an outlook. While the results were better than expected, analysts noted higher capex as a potential reason behind the stock’s decline.
• CH Robinson (CHRW) rises 5% after the logistics company reported adjusted earnings per share that beat analyst estimates, despite macroeconomic headwinds from global trade policies.
• Dow Inc. (DOW) slips 2% as the chemical company said it will terminate about 4,500 roles as part of a plan to simplify and streamline its end-to-end processes. It also reported net sales for the fourth quarter that were in-line with the average analyst estimate.
• International Business Machines (IBM) gains 9% after the IT services company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations. Analysts highlighted software revenue and free cash flow as positive.
• International Paper Co. (IP) rises 5% on plans to break up and spin off its European packaging operations.
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS) drops 10% after the casino operator’s Macau properties — including The Venetian and Londoner — fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
• LendingClub (LC) falls 7% after posting fourth quarter results. BI analyst Herman Chan writes that pre-provision profit missed slightly amid higher marketing expenses and guidance looks somewhat lighter than market expectations.
• ServiceNow (NOW) is down 8% after the software company reported its fourth-quarter results and gave an outlook. Analysts are broadly positive, but Bloomberg Intelligence noted that the backdrop remains uncertain.
• Southwest Airlines (LUV) rises 5% after reporting results that topped analyst estimates, signaling the fruits of a turnaround. Shares are climbing 6.2%.
• VSE Corp. (VSEC) rises 1% after agreeing to buy closely held Precision Aviation Group for about $2.025 billion in a cash-and-stock deal.
• Whirlpool (WHR) falls 11% after the appliance maker’s ongoing earnings-per-share forecast for the full year trailed the average analyst estimate. US levies on imports have yet to give the company an edge over foreign rivals, its chief executive said.

Big tech is back in focus, with markets rewarding AI-heavy capex when it’s paired with stronger-than-expected core business growth, as seen at Meta, or punishing it when momentum disappoints, as Microsoft found out the hard way. 

Meta’s stronger-than-expected revenue outlook helped cushion concerns over rising AI-related spending. The social media giant reported fourth-quarter sales of $59.9 billion, beating the $58.4 billion that Wall Street anticipated.  t signaled that while spending is up, the core business supporting those investments is also growing faster than expected. If Meta hits the top-end of capex guidance for 2026, it will mean a jump of roughly 87% from 2025.

Microsoft’s record spending and slower cloud growth sent its shares down sharply amid investor concerns that it could take longer than expected for the company’s AI investments to pay off. Capex for fiscal second quarter hit $37.5 billion, up 66% from a year earlier and exceeding analyst estimates for $36.2 billion. The Azure cloud-computing unit posted a 38% revenue gain when adjusting for currency fluctuations, just meeting analyst projections.

“We’re back to the theme that we’re not seeing monolithic growth for all the tech companies,” said Rory McPherson, chief investment officer at Magnus Financial Discretionary Management. “Capex spending has increased across the board. The market is just rewarding the ability to monetize it, while placing question marks on companies that aren’t able to do that.”

Looking at earnings, out of the 119 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 77% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 16% have missed. Caterpillar, Dow and Honeywell International are among many companies expected to report results before the market opens. Caterpillar’s revenue is set to accelerate in 4Q, largely driven by higher volume across all segments, as momentum continues to build into 2026. Margin pressure is likely to persist in 4Q due to a step-up in tariffs (about a $725 million headwind) and manufacturing costs. Earnings from Apple, KLA and Stryker and follow later in the day.

The Stoxx 600 rises 0.4%, with mining, energy and industrial shares leading gains. Technology stocks underperform with Germany’s SAP plunging as much as 13% after reporting a disappointing cloud backlog. Meanwhile, miners outperform. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• 3i Group shares rise as much as 15% in London, rebounding from a recent plunge, after the investment firm’s latest results showed a better-than-expected performance for its discount retail business, Action
• ABB rises as much as 9.8% after the Swiss firm predicted higher profitability this year amid a boom in data centers and also announced a $2 billion share buyback. JPMorgan describes orders in the electrical and automation divisions as “blowout”
• STMicro shares rise as much as 5% after the chipmaker gave a better-than-expected 1Q revenue forecast, showing signs of cyclical recovery in demand for analog chips
• EssilorLuxottica shares climb as much as 2.5%, snapping four days of declines. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg on an earnings call said it’s “hard to imagine a world in several years where most glasses that people wear aren’t AI glasses”
• European mining shares are the best-performers on the Stoxx 600 benchmark on Thursday after copper posted its biggest one-day gain in years to hit a record above $14,000 a ton
• EasyJet shares rise as much as 3.1% after the airline reported solid first-quarter results and left its outlook for fiscal year 2026 broadly unchanged
• SAP shares drop as much as 13%, the biggest intraday decline in more than five years, after the software firm reported 25% growth in current cloud backlog on constant-currency basis
• H&M shares drop as much as 4.3% after the fashion retailer reported softer current trading than expected, with RBC saying 4Q sales are “a little light” vs. consensus estimates
• Nokia declines as much as 7.4% after the Finnish communications group reported its latest earnings. Analysts say the backwards-looking figures in the report are strong, but 2026 guidance for Network Infrastructure is disappointing
• Givaudan drops as much as 6.7% to the lowest since Oct. 2023 after the Swiss fragrance and flavor maker delivered a weak like-for-like performance in the fourth quarter
• SEB falls as much as 5.7%, the most since April 2025, after the Swedish lender reported its latest earnings, which analysts describe as weak, with a large miss on profits the key disappointment, overshadowing better-than-expected dividends
• Roche shares drop as much as 2.1% after the Swiss drugmaker reported results for the fourth quarter which Intron Health analysts called “soft.” The company also provided guidance for 2026, and analysts see potential for consensus expectations to be cut as a result
• Interroll shares fall as much as 9.6%, the most since last April, after the Swiss industrial-equipment firm’s full-year sales undershot the average analyst estimate. Analysts see some bright spots in the report but highlight headwinds
• Hilton Foods shares drop as much as 9.2%, the most in two months, after the meat producer issued a cautious outlook as inflationary pressures in beef and white fish continue

Earlier in the session, Asian equities edged higher amid mixed trading in heavyweight tech names. Shares in Indonesia pared losses. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.2%, after falling as much as 0.7%. SK Hynix and Japan’s Advantest, which surged after its earnings beat, were the biggest boosts to the gauge, while TSMC, Tokyo Electron and Samsung weighed the most. The Indonesian benchmark plunged for a second day, before trimming most of the losses, as investors continue to fret over MSCI’s warning over the market’s investability. The index tumbled as much as 10% before closing 1.1% lower as local regulators said they would double the minimum free-float requirement starting next month.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed having erased an earlier fall. The greenback has struggled this year as investors bet on its long-term decline, with unpredictable policymaking and ballooning deficits adding to its woes. The dollar hasn’t acted like a haven for some time as investors increasingly favor tangible alternatives such as precious metals, DoubleLine Capital Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Gundlach told CNBC.

“The risks of another major leg lower in the dollar remain elevated, even if our bias is for a short-term recovery, given the overall supporting macro and rates picture,” wrote strategists at ING Groep NV including Francesco Pesole.

In rates, treasuries are steady, with US 10-year yields near flat at 4.25%. European government bonds are also little changed.

In commodities, Brent crude futures hit $70 a barrel for the first time since September after US President Trump warned Iran to make a nuclear deal with the US or face military strikes far worse than the attack he ordered last June.

Copper surged by the most in more than 16 years, surging about 6% and earlier hitting a record above $14,000 a ton as metals extended a dramatic start to the year, fueled by a wave of intense speculative trading in China. Spot gold also crossed $5,500/oz for the first while silver briefly surpassed $120/oz, extending its year-to-date advance to around 63%.

“We still have some exposure to gold but at these prices I wouldn’t be that long on it,” said Dan Boardman-Weston, chief investment officer at BRI Wealth Management. “You need it for diversification and it’s been wonderful over the past two years, but now I’m minding my exposure to it.”

The US economic calendar includes 3Q final nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs, weekly jobless claims and November trade balance (8:30am), November factory orders and wholesale trade sales (10am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
• DAX -1%
• CAC 40 +0.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.25%
• VIX +0.1 points at 16.45
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1178.44
• euro little changed at $1.1955
• WTI crude +2.1% at $64.53/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Talks between top Senate Democrats and the Trump administration to avert a government shutdown have moved closer to Democrats’ demands, though no deal has been reached yet, a person familiar said. Talks included restrictions on ICE agents. BBG
• US Senate Majority Leader Thune sees a possibility to avoid a shutdown by week’s end after Senate Minority Leader Schumer lays out Democrats' demands on ICE: CNN
• President Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces and leaders to inspire protesters, multiple sources said, even as Israeli and Arab officials said air power alone would not topple the clerical rulers. RTRS
• Nvidia, Microsoft and Amazon may invest up to $60 billion in OpenAI’s new funding round. The Information
• Nvidia Corp. hasn’t yet received any orders from Chinese customers for its H200 AI chips as Beijing is still deciding whether to allow imports of the US firm’s components, according to Jensen Huang. BBG
• Cuba only has enough oil to last 15-20 days at current levels of demand and domestic production after its sole supplier Mexico appeared to cancel a shipment while the US blocked deliveries from Venezuela. FT
• Chairman of a US House of Representatives committee said in a letter that NVIDIA (NVDA) helped DeepSeek hone AI models later used in China's military: Reuters.
• Gold and silver hit new records, lifting commodities as a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions fueled demand. Copper surged on speculative trading in China. Brent hit $70 a barrel after Donald Trump renewed threats against Iran. BBG
• Shares in Chinese property developers surge on news that China has done away with borrowing limits on property developers known as its "three red lines" policy, an apparent end to rules that triggered a debt crisis which continues to weigh on the world's second-largest economy. RTRS
• Indonesia’s stock market suffered its worst two-day rout since 1998, triggered by MSCI’s warning of a possible market downgrade due to transparency concerns. Regulators stepped in and announced plans to double the minimum free-float requirements. BBG
• Sweden’s central bank held its key rate at a three-year low of 1.75%, as expected, and stuck with its forecast for no change until next year. BBG
• Regional banks are on track to outperform the S&P 500 for a third month, the longest streak since 2022. With valuation multiples still below their long-term average and 10% of an S&P gauge set to disclose results in the next two days, the door is open to more gains if profits come in strong.
   

Notable earnings

• Tesla Inc. (TSLA) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.50 (exp. 0.45), Revenue 24.9bln (exp. 24.77bln). Gross margin 20.1% (exp. 17.1%). Operating income 1.41bln (exp. 1.32bln). Free cash flow 1.42bln (exp. 1.59bln). In Q1 of this year, we plan to unveil the Gen 3 version of Optimus. Plan to begin megapack 3 and megablock production at megafactory Houston in 2026. On Jan 16, agreed to invest ~2B to acquire shares of Series E Preferred stock of xAI. Shares +3% pre-market
• Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS 5.16 (exp. 3.92), Revenue 81.3bln (exp. 80.28bln). said net gains from OpenAI investments totaled USD 7.6bln, which resulted in an increase in diluted earnings per share of USD 1.02/shr. Operating income 38.3bln (exp. 32.9bln). SEGMENTS:. Q2 Azure and other Cloud services revenue increased 39% (exp. 38.8%). Productivity and Business +16% at USD 34.1bln (exp. 33.5bln). More Personal Computing: USD 14.3bln (exp. 14.33bln). Cloud revenue +26% to USD 51.5bln. Intelligent cloud revenue USD 32.9bln. Commercial RPO +110% to USD 625bln. Shares -6.4% pre-market
• Meta Platforms Inc (META) Q4 2025 (USD) EPS 8.88 (exp. 8.19), Revenue 59.9bln (exp. 58.38bln). Sees Q1 rev. USD 53.5bln-56.5bln (exp. 51.3bln). Sees 2026 capex USD 115bln-135bln (exp. 110.6bln). Shares +7.9% pre-market
• International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Q4 (USD) Adj. EPS 4.52 (exp. 4.33), Revenue 19.7bln (exp. 19.21bln). Sees FY constant currency rev. growth of over 5%. Sees FY2026 revenue USD 70.14bln (exp. 70.16bln). Sees FY free cash flow to increase by about USD 1bln. Shares +8.2% pre-market
• SAP (SAP GY) Q4 2025 (EUR): Adj. oper. profit 2.83bln (exp. 2.75bln), Revenue 9.68bln (exp. 9.74bln), Cloud Revenue 5.61bln (exp. 5.64bln), Cloud/Software Revenue 8.62bln (exp. 8.68bln); announced up to EUR 10bln buyback, to start Feb 2026. Shares -14%

Trade/Tariffs

• China's MOFCOM spokesperson, when asked about a potential round of US-China trade talks, said China is willing to work with the US side to jointly uphold and implement the important consensus of the two heads of state, Global Times reported.
• Chinese President Xi said they are willing to consider implementing a unilateral visa-free system for British nationals

Central Banks

• Riksbank leaves its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% as expected; reiterates that the policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come, in line with the forecast in December.
• BoK said uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy is likely to persist and it reiterated it will closely monitor financial markets.
• HKMA maintains its base rate at 4.00%, as expected.
• Monetary Authority of Singapore kept the prevailing rate of appreciation of the SGD NEER policy band, as well as made no change to the width and level the band is centred, as expected. said:. Output gap will be positive for the year as a whole. Growth this year is expected to remain resilient. Expects 2026 GDP growth to ease Y/Y.
• Brazilian BCB Policy Announcement 15% vs. Exp. 15.00% (Prev. 15.00%); said it will start cutting rates next meeting.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued with sentiment in the region clouded following a lack of fireworks at the FOMC, where the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, as expected, while top- and bottom-line earnings beats from the likes of Meta, Microsoft and Tesla also failed to spur the broader risk appetite. ASX 200 marginally declined amid underperformance in telecoms and miners, while a surge in exports and import prices added to the inflationary risks and the case for an RBA rate hike next week. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses amid currency-related headwinds and earnings results. KOSPI saw two-way price action amid fluctuations in tech heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix despite both companies posting stellar earnings results. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with price action relatively flat amid a lack of fresh pertinent macro catalysts for China, although property names were supported after reports that several developers are no longer required to submit the monthly “three red lines” indicators, which are debt metrics introduced in 2021 to curb builders' financial leverage.

Top Asian News

• India's Economic Survey has FY27 growth in a 6.8-7.2% range. Weaker INR causes investors to pause.
• China market liquidity will remain ample in February, according to analysts cited by China Securities Times.
• Google (GOOG) took action against a Chinese company linked to a massive cyber weapon.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) are broadly firmer, but with clear underperformance in the DAX 40 (-1.2%), which has been dragged down by post-earnings losses in SAP (-14%). The software giant disappointed on cloud revenue and poor cloud backlog metrics. European sectors are mixed; Basic Resources is the clear outperformer, boosted by continued strength in underlying metals prices and following Glencore (+3%) and Antofagasta (+6%) releasing their FY26 copper production guidance, with both companies indicating strong production throughout the year. Among underperformers, Chemicals has been pressured by Givaudan (-6%) post-earnings, followed closely by Tech, dragged lower by losses in SAP.

Top European News

• Germany's Chancellor Merz said they are now seeing the first signs of recovery in the German economy.
• French Finance Minister Lescure said recent FX moves reflect fundamentals.
• Chinese President Xi said to UK PM Starmer that the UK-China relationship in recent years had seen “twists and turns that did not serve the interests of our countries”. said:. China stands ready to develop with the UK a long-term and consistent strategic partnership . More dialogue between the UK and China was “imperative”.

FX

• DXY resides in a current 96.01–96.35 range, well within yesterday’s 95.859–96.787 parameter, with little movement seen following the FOMC decision and press conference yesterday. There was a lack of major surprises or fireworks from the meeting and presser, although Powell noted that rates are at the higher end of the neutral range, and that if the tariff effect on goods pricing is seen to peak this year, it would signal to the Fed that it can loosen policy. Looking ahead stateside, US initial jobless claims for the week of 24 January are expected at 205k (prev. 200k), while continuing claims (week of 17 January, coinciding with the BLS’ traditional survey window for the January jobs report) are seen at 1.86mln (prev. 1.849mln). The Chicago Fed’s Labour Market Indicators are also due today. Final Q3 unit labour costs data are also scheduled, alongside US trade data for November and factory orders for November.
• EUR/USD remains sub-1.2000 after finding some resistance at 1.1996 overnight, while still remaining within yesterday’s 1.1896–1.2045 range. There has been little of note for the EUR as participants gear up for next week’s ECB meeting, with some focus on Governing Council commentary. Aside from that, price action this morning has been largely USD-driven. GBP/USD found resistance near yesterday’s high (1.3846) before waning, with the pair remaining within yesterday’s parameter.
• USD/JPY is softer and back below its 100-DMA (153.71), trading within a 152.76–153.46 band, with price action largely in tandem with the USD in the absence of fresh macro drivers. Traders will be keeping an eye on the geopolitical landscape amid further punchy rhetoric from both Iran and the US. Domestically, a Nikkei poll showed that Japanese PM Takaichi’s party is expected to gain a Lower House majority.
• Antipodeans outperform, with AUD outpacing peers as the commodity-linked currency benefits from the surge in spot gold and copper prices, despite a lack of obvious drivers for the magnitude of gains seen. Data from Australia also showed firmer export and import prices.

Fixed Income

• USTs are, once again, near enough flat, holding off lows in the 111-16+ to 111-26 range. Post-FOMC updates have been light. In brief, the Fed held policy in a decision that saw two dovish dissenters (Miran and Waller), while the statement outlined a more optimistic outlook on the economy and labour market. Overall, the statement and presser left the Fed narrative largely unchanged, although the omission of the line referring to “downside risks to employment” lent a slight hawkish tint to the statement—a point reflected at the time in upside pressure at the short end of the yield curve. This morning, yields are bid across the curve, which is marginally steeper, with the 10yr back above 4.25%, though still shy of last week’s JGB-induced 4.31% YTD peak.
• EGBs were flat this morning, but have gradually edged higher to a peak around the 128.13 area, with gains of up to 10 ticks. Earnings are once again dominating the European newsflow, with the DAX 40 underperforming on account of SAP, though Bunds themselves do not appear to be reacting.
• Gilts gapped lower by just over 10 ticks before slipping to a 90.48 trough, catching up with the modest pressure seen in peers overnight. In the UK, the PM’s meeting with Chinese President Xi generated mixed commentary. A 2028 tender auction attracted strong demand, but had little impact on UK paper.
• Italy sold EUR 6.5bln vs exp. EUR 6-6.5bln 2.85% 2031, 3.45% 2036 BTP & EUR 2.0bln vs exp. EUR 1.5-2.0bln 1.468% 2035 CCTeu.
• UK sold GBP 1.25bln 0.125% 2028 Gilt auction via Tender: b/c 3.77x (prev. 3.84x), average yield 3.443% (prev. 3.783%).

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks have steadily moved higher and reached new four-month highs, with Brent Apr’26 climbing above USD 69/bbl as the probability of a US strike on Iran rises. CNN reported late on Wednesday, citing sources, that US President Trump is considering a new large-scale attack on Iran due to a lack of progress on a nuclear deal. More recently, Kpler’s Bakr reported that Trump is not looking for a war, but instead wants a diplomatic win or an “organic” internal uprising.
• Worries over oil and gas production due to the Arctic storm have subsided for now, with Henry Hub futures consolidating below USD 4/MMBtu after peaking at USD 7.43/MMBtu earlier in the week.
• Precious metals continue their surge higher, with spot XAU topping out just shy of USD 5,600/oz, aided by a weaker dollar following the FOMC policy announcement. Alongside gold, spot silver also peaked at a new ATH of USD 120.43/oz but is currently underperforming the yellow metal. This runs contrary to recent trends, where spot silver has typically led gains. UBS notes that reduced inflows into ETFs and net speculative futures positioning on the US COMEX exchange hint at a possible end to the rally in XAG.
• Copper prices surged at the start of Asia-Pac trade, with 3M LME copper breaking its prior ATH of USD 13.41k/t to reach a new peak of USD 14.12k/t. Despite the lack of a clear near-term driver, expectations for stronger US growth and increased build-out of AI infrastructure remain key supports for the red metal. This move also comes ahead of China’s Lunar New Year holiday, prompting the usual front-loading of copper and other metals ahead of the festive period.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said increased Venezuelan crude oil supply means lower fuel prices and proceeds from the sale of Venezuelan oil will return to Venezuelans.
• US is handing over a seized oil tanker to Venezuela, according to US officials.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russian Kremlin spokesperson Peskov does not comment on reported of a energy infrastructure ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
• Russia's Kremlin said they're still waiting for the US response on Putin's offer to extend limits in expiring nuclear treaty.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Kpler's Bakr, on Iran, writes "What I’m hearing: Trump isn’t looking for war. He wants a diplomatic win, or an “organic” internal uprising that forces change from within.".
• Sources from Arab TV report that disputes are still ongoing between Egypt and Israel regarding the number of people crossing through the Rafah in both direction on a daily basis.
• EU's top diplomat said the EU will likely agree on placing sanctions on Iran's IRGC, AP's Gambrell reported.
• Iran's representative to the UN said Iran informs the Council it faces a clear US threat to use force against it, while the Iranian envoy said Washington will bear responsibility for any uncontrolled consequences resulting from any acts of aggression.
• CNN sources say US President Trump is considering a new large-scale strike on Iran as no progress has been made in nuclear talks, although he has not yet made a final decision on a new major military strike against Iran. Trump's military options include airstrikes and targeting of Iranian leaders and security officials.
• BofA card spending, week to January 24th: +6.6% Y/Y (prev. 4.6% Y/Y). Spending growth grew in groceries and general merchandise, indicative of stockpiling before the Winter storm.
• Turkey said it has foiled an Iranian intelligence plot at US' Incirlik base.

Geopolitics: Others

• Sources from Arab TV report that disputes are still ongoing between Egypt and Israel regarding the number of people crossing through the Rafah in both direction on a daily basis.
• Denmark's Foreign Minister after his meeting in Washington said he's more optimistic on Greenland compared to a week ago. Plan to hold further meetings. Back on track with the US on Greenland.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Jan 24 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 205k, prior 200k
• 8:30 am: United States Jan 17 Continuing Claims, est. 1850k, prior 1849k
• 8:30 am: United States Nov Trade Balance, est. -44b, prior -29.4b
• 10:00 am: United States Nov Factory Orders, est. 1.6%, prior -1.3%
• 10:00 am: United States Nov F Durable Goods Orders, prior 5.3%
• 10:00 am: United States Nov F Durables Ex Transportation, prior 0.5%
• 10:00 am: United States Nov F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday was a rare occasion when both the latest Fed decision and a slew of Mag-7 results failed to materially move markets, with a pause by the FOMC leaving bonds and equities little changed while mixed results from Microsoft and Meta have left equity futures with marginal gains overnight. Precious metals continued to deliver the most eye-catching moves, with gold (+4.86%) yesterday posting its best day since the early weeks of the Covid pandemic and moving up another 2.41% overnight and above $5,500/oz as I type. Elsewhere Polymarket's probability of a US government shutdown has sunk to 44% in the last couple of hours from a peak of 80% yesterday as the NYT has reported overnight that a deal between Democrats and Republican has been potentially sketched out. We will wait to see how that develops.

Starting with the Fed, and as widely expected the FOMC kept rates on hold at 3.50-3.75%. Governors Miran and Waller dissented in favor of a 25bps cut but there was “broad support” for keeping rates steady according to Chair Powell, who said the Committee was “well positioned” after delivering 75bps of rate cuts in late 2025. The pause came amid a more upbeat tone on the economy, with the statement noting the “solid pace” of economic activity and “some signs of stabilization” in the unemployment rate. Powell emphasised the “clear improvement” in the economic outlook since the last meeting, but any hawkish read-across was offset by a more sanguine tone on inflation. The Chair suggested that services disinflation was continuing, with most of the current inflation overshoot coming due to tariffs, the effect of which is expected to peak around the “middle quarters of the year”.

Powell offered little near-term guidance but suggested the next move is likely to be a cut, noting that “it isn’t anybody’s base case right now the next move will be a rate hike”. Our economists see the Powell-led Fed as having now delivered its last rate cut and, more broadly, they think risks around their expectation of one rate cut this year in September have become more balanced. See their full reaction here. Away from policy, Powell mostly deflected questions on the Lisa Cook hearing and whether he’d stay on as Governor after his term ends in May, while reiterating that he was “strongly committed to (Fed independence) and so are my colleagues”.

Bonds and equities saw muted post-FOMC reactions. Both 2yr (-0.2bps at 3.57%) and 10yr (-0.1bps at 4.24%) Treasury yields were little changed by the close, having been just over a basis point higher pre-FOMC. 10yr and 30yr US yields are +2.4bps and +3.2bps higher this morning though. Fed funds futures continue to price 47bps of easing by December (+0.2bps on the day). The S&P 500 (-0.01%) was also essentially unchanged at 6,978, after reaching the 7,000 level intra-day for the first time earlier in the session. The NASDAQ (+0.02%) and the Mag-7 (+0.04%) were steady as well, while the small cap Russell 2000 (-0.49%) retreated.

After the market close, we then received a mixed set of Mag-7 releases from Microsoft, Meta and Tesla. Microsoft’s shares slumped by around -6% after-hours despite a modest earnings beat, as the software giant only just met elevated cloud revenue growth expectations (at +38%) and saw higher-than-expected quarterly CAPEX outlays ($37.5bn vs $36.2bn est.). By contrast, Meta surged by more than +6% after-hours as it projected stronger ad-driven sales for the current quarter ($53.5-$56.5bn vs $51.3bn est.) and guided for stronger CAPEX in 2026 as a whole ($115-135bn vs $110.6bn est.). Meanwhile, Tesla’s shares gained about +2% in post-market trading after delivering a decent earnings beat and laying out plans to invest $20bn this year to streamline its EV lineup and expand work on robotics and AI. Those results have largely offset each other as far as equity futures are concerned with those tied to the S&P 500 (+0.11%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.26%) trading slightly higher. We next have Apple reporting after the close today.  While we won’t get Nvidia’s earnings until late-February, multiple outlets reported that Beijing had approved purchases of its H200 chips for several Chinese companies including Alibaba. So that helped boost Nvidia’s share price, which rose +1.59%.

Before the Fed decision, the dollar also began to stabilise after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated the “strong dollar policy” a day after Trump had seemed more relaxed about its direction. That came in a CNBC appearance, where he said that the US “always has a strong dollar policy, but a strong dollar policy means setting the right fundamentals”. He also commented that the US was “absolutely not” intervening in FX markets, which helped drive a dollar rebound against several other currencies. The dollar did give up some of its rebound later on, in part after Powell said that questions on the recent weakening in the dollar were in the purview of the Treasury not the Fed. Still, the euro was down -0.72% to $1.1954 by the close, with the Japanese yen weakening -0.78% to 153.41 per dollar. Both are back up around a third of a percent higher this morning.

Otherwise, oil prices saw further gains after Trump posted that a “massive Armada” was heading to Iran, and that time was “running out” for Iran to make a deal with the US. Moreover, he said the next US attack would be “far worse” than the strikes last June if Iran did not reach a deal. In response, Iran’s country mission to the UN said that it was ready to correspond with the US, but “if pushed” it would “defend itself and respond like never before.” And yesterday evening, CNN reported that Trump is considering a major strike on Iran but had not yet made a final decision. So fears of tensions escalating between the two countries caused oil prices to rise, with Brent (+1.23%) up to its highest since late-September and trading another +1.62% higher this morning at $69.51/bbl. There were even stronger gains for precious metals, with gold (+4.86%) posting its best day since March 2020 and having now seen its largest 8-day gain since the GFC. Gold is up another +2.41% to $5,550/oz as I type. Meanwhile, silver (+4.12%) also closed at a new high of $116.70/oz and is up just over a percent in Asia.

In Europe, there was a risk off tone yesterday, alongside sovereign bonds rallying as speculation mounted about a potential ECB rate cut this year. That followed comments before the open from the ECB’s Kocher, who said they might have to react if the euro kept appreciating, and overnight index swaps are now pricing in a 26% chance of a rate cut by the September meeting, from 16% before the comments. That helped to push yields lower across the continent, with those on 10yr bunds (-1.7bps), OATs (-0.9bps) and BTPs (-0.4bps) all falling back. Moreover, front-end yields led the declines as investors priced in a growing chance of a rate cut, with the 2yr German yield down -2.2bps.
Elsewhere in Europe, equities largely reversed their gains from the first two days of the week, with the STOXX 600 down -0.75%. Luxury goods were a big underperformer, led by a steep fall in LVMH (-7.89%) after the company’s earnings disappointed the previous evening, which meant the CAC 40 (-1.06%) saw one of the biggest falls.

Finally, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% yesterday, as expected. Governor Macklem kept their options open, saying that “elevated uncertainty makes it difficult to predict the timing or direction of the next change in the policy rate.” But markets are still pricing in a rate hike as most likely by year-end, which is priced in as a 42% probability.

In Asia, the KOSPI (+1.32%) is leading the way again, followed by the Hang Seng (+0.57%) and the Nikkei (+0.31%). Other markets are fairly close to flat.

To the day ahead, data releases include the US November trade balance, factory orders and initial jobless claims, Italy’s November industrial sales, the Euro Area’s January economic confidence. Central bank events include the Riksbank decision, and the ECB’s Cipollone will be speaking today. Finally, Apple, Visa, Mastercard and Blackstone are among those reporting today.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 08:49

'No Hire, No Fire' Economy Exposed As Continuing Jobless Claims At Lowest Since Sept 2024

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time decline from 210k (upwardly revised from 200k) to 209k (slightly above the 205k exp), but remaining near those multi-decade lows and showing no signs of labor market stress. Unadjusted claims plunged as the seasonal pain ebbed away...

Source: Bloomberg

Even more impressively, continuing jobless claims tumbled to 1.827 million Americans - the lowest since Sept 2024...

Source: Bloomberg

All of which confirms Powell's labor market "stabilization" view.

Under the hood, we note that despite the improvement in overall continuing claims, the 'Deep Tristate' is seeing the jobless-benefit-receiving population starting to accelerate again (and this is before a potential shutdown)...

Source: Bloomberg

So with jobless claims data showing a 'strong and improving' labor market, while The Conference Board showing a labor market signals 'jobs are hard to get'...

Source: Bloomberg

...is this a classic indicator of the 'no fire, no hire' economy?

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 08:40

US Heating Bills Expected To Spike Nationwide As Gas, Electricity Costs Continue To March Higher

As Americans brave a brutal cold snap, households are facing higher heating bills this summer. 

According to a report released last week by the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA), heating prices are expected to rise by 9.2% in the 2025-2026 winter vs. one year ago.

According to the NEADA analysis, electricity costs are expected to rise $12.2%, or $133 this winter, while gas prices are projected to rise 8.4% or $54. Heating oil costs are expected to remain flat, while propane should be down 1.4%, or $18 this winter. 

Several factors are at play pushing retail electricity prices higher. 

"Higher interest rates have increased the cost of financing power plants and transmission projects. Rising natural gas prices are pushing up electricity generation costs. At the same time, electricity demand is growing rapidly, driven in part by the expansion of data centers," reads the report cited by Fox Business.

"Aging grid infrastructure and regional capacity constraints are adding further system costs," the report continues. "In addition, reduced federal incentives for renewable energy have slowed new clean energy investment."

NEADA notes that more than 210 electric and natural gas utilities have either raise rates or proposed to do so within the next two years, which amounts to roughly $85.5 billion - and continues a trend seen in recent years of average monthly residential electricity bills rising faster than average inflation.

Low and moderate-income households are of course hit the worst, as they spend between 6% and 10% of their income on energy, roughly 3-5x what higher-income households pay. 

Additionally, about one-in-six households are behind on utility bills, with Americans collectively owing about $23 billion to electric and gas utilities. NEADA estimates that up to 4 million households faced utility disconnections last year, an increase of about 500,000 from 2024. -Fox Business

According to the NEADA report, "Even modest rate increases can force families to choose between paying utility bills and covering essentials such as food, rent or medicine."

h/t Capital.news

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 08:20

SAP Shares Plunge Most Since 2020 As Cloud Backlog Miss Amid AI Worries

SAP SE shares in Europe plunged the most since late 2020, as Wall Street analysts told clients the enterprise software company's 2026 guidance appeared underwhelming relative to elevated expectations.

The 25% growth in the current cloud backlog on a constant-currency basis was not enough to spark investor enthusiasm.

As a result, shares in Frankfurt plunged 11% to 174.88 - the largest intraday decline since Oct. 26, 2020.

Shares are now at their lowest level since mid-2024.

Klein told investors during third-quarter earnings in October that 25% growth would be viewed as a "disappointment."

He has shifted SAP away from traditional on-premise software licenses toward cloud-based subscription offerings. The move was initially applauded by investors and helped propel the stock to a record high last year. More recently, however, the rise of AI-powered programming tools has sparked new concerns about what this new competitive space could mean for enterprise software vendors.

Here is Goldman analyst Sean Johnstone's first take on SAP's earnings and outlook.

SAP (not good enough and not sure call will have done enough to quell CCB debate esp. give ServiceNow NOW was down despite a beat & raise): The debate will be on the topline despite the Q been largely inline with the operating beat driven by lower SBC helped by a low stock price. The CCB number was at best inline but includes adjustments – it needed to be 27% esp. given hype that SAP had closed a whole load of large deals and yet its 26% adjusted for "Large transformational deals with high cloud revenue ramps in outer years and termination for convenience clauses required by law negatively impacted fourth quarter constant currency current cloud backlog growth by approximately 1 percentage point." So CCB was included the adjustment was  26%. On call CFO saying that CCB decel in 2026 will be less than they saw in 2025 that was 400bps but on call not clear in quantum of this years decline. As a function of what they reported in 4Q, current consensus is 100bps decel. TCB – at 30% vs. last years 40% and gap to CCB has shrunk from DD to MSD.

Q4 broadly in-line, small miss Cloud Gross profit missed at 74.6% vs, street 75.2%, Opex is inline with street, SBC is below (driven by low stock price) and drives an operating income & EPS beat and FCF beats by 2%

Guidance: On CCB – no number but said to "slightly decelerate". Street has is circa 24% for 2026  so 100bps decel and debate will be in this enough esp as Cloud revenue guide is 23-25% vs. street at 25% and most expected 24-26%. Cloud and software guide 12-13% street as 13%. on EBIT 11.9-12.3 (street is inline). EBIT growth 14-18% street ai 17%. FCF of circ 10bn vs. street at 9.5bn. Plus E10bn buyback. Net/net the debate is all on the revenue outlook & CCB while EBIT and FCF are broadly unchanged. Given the reaction to ServiceNow that beat would expect SAP to be under pressure. At what level does this get defended /trough 160-170 at 5x recurring…

Commentary from others on Wall Street (courtsey of Bloomberg):

JPMorgan (overweight)

• Given investors' negative sentiment around software sector, growth numbers are ultimately what investors are zoomed in on, "and purely off this we would expect a negative share price reaction," says analyst Toby Ogg

• Guidance for the current cloud backlog to "slightly decelerate in 2026" from the 4Q exit rate implies expectations may drift lower on this metric

• Still, 2026 free cash flow guidance of ~€10b was above expectations

Jefferies (buy)

• The company had implied before that a 25% current cloud backlog growth would be disappointing, and "investors are likely to come to the same conclusion," says analyst Charles Brennan

• One detail worth noting is SAP's customer NPS score declined 3 y/y to 9 versus guidance for a slight increase; while the firm attributes the decline to on-premise clients, for SAP to succeed over medium term it needs to bring customers along the journey

• FX is guided to be a 3.5 percentage point of headwind to FY26 Ebit growth, likely bigger than what consensus is modeling

SAP's miss on current cloud backlog expectations suggests a forward-looking growth problem this year.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 07:45

My morning train WFH reads:

• Will Danoff, Fidelity Contrafund’s Legendary Manager Keeps Beating the Market. Now He’s Getting Closer to Passing On the Reins. The legendary manager has taken on two co-managers to help him run the mammoth fund. Just don’t use the word “retirement.” (Barron’s).

• The Next Step on the Bond Ladder: ETFs New funds offer income from bond ladders inside an ETF. Here are the pros and cons for investors. (Morningstar)

• Termites are slowly feasting away at the foundations of the dollar’s dominance. The dollar’s dominance was built on the foundation of America’s many strengths. But like termites eating away at a house’s woodwork, Trump’s dysfunctional policies are eating away at its support and rendering the US currency acutely vulnerable to future shocks. (Financial Times)

• Management Fees as the Anti-Alpha: What’s a management fee? Why are investors using this contractually fixed fee in their endeavor to seek market alpha? (Cash and Carried)

• Stung by Trump, America’s Top Trading Partners Shift Gaze to China: Some U.S. allies are weighing closer ties to Beijing as they seek alternative markets (Wall Street Journal) see also Canadians Are Boycotting US Ski Slopes: Travelers from Canada, long the biggest source of international visitors to the US, have pushed back against the president’s imperialist rhetoric. Winter resorts are feeling the chill. (Businessweek) see also How Canada Became an Enemy: It’s not about trade, it’s about ego. (Paul Krugman)

• OpenAI Wants To Create Biometric Social Network To Kill X’s Bot Problem: OpenAI is quietly building a social network and considering using biometric verification like World’s eyeball scanning orb or Apple’s Face ID to ensure its users are people, not bots. (Forbes)

• Trump is dealing with an immigration mess of his own making: The killing of Alex Pretti on Saturday, coming just two weeks after the shooting death of Renée Good, represents a crisis moment for Trump’s immigration policy. (Washington Post)

• Why Your “Squirrel-Proof” Bird Feeder Never Stood a Chance: You’re handing puzzles to expert problem-solvers. (Slate)

• Minnesota Proved MAGA Wrong: The pushback against ICE exposed a series of mistaken assumptions. (The Atlantic)

• When the World Turned to Color: The Inside Story of The Beatles on Ed Sullivan: There are moments in history that act as permanent markers of “Before” and “After.” The printing press. The atomic bomb. The moon landing. On a cold Sunday night in February 1964, four young men from Liverpool joined that list. In just 12 minutes and 40 seconds of television, they didn’t just play songs; they redrew the cultural map of the Western world. (Beatles Rewind)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Kate Burke, CEO of Allspring Global Investments a global asset manager with more than 600 billion dollars in assets under advisement. She is also a director on the firm’s board. Previously, she was at AllianceBernstein as COO/CFO.

 

Europe’s Top Economies in 2026 by Projected GDP
Source: Visual Capitalist

 

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The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

UK Government To Create 'British FBI', Roll Out Nationwide Facial Recognition Cameras

Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The British Home Secretary unveiled plans in Parliament on Jan. 26 for a new National Police Service (NPS), which is modeled on the FBI and will take over the fight against terrorism and organized crime in the United Kingdom.

Undated image of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood speaking in the House of Commons in London, England. UK Parliament/PA

At the weekend, Shabana Mahmood described the NPS as a “British FBI” and said it would alleviate the burden on local police forces, allowing them to concentrate on issues such as shoplifting and street robbery.

The NPS will replace the National Crime Agency, which covers England and Wales, but it will also have a UK-wide role.

On Monday, the Home Office published a 106-page White Paper that sets out in detail the new police structure and how it would be supported by state-of-the-art technology.

The document says the government would invest 115 million pounds ($157 million) over the next three years “to enable the rapid and responsible adoption of AI and automation technologies by the police.”

A new National Centre for AI in Policing, known as Police.AI, would be created.

There are also plans to roll out facial recognition cameras nationwide to help police catch wanted criminals on watchlists.

The number of facial recognition camera vehicles would be increased from 10 to 50.

“A hundred years ago, fingerprinting was decried as curtailing our civil liberties, but today we could not imagine policing without it,” Mahmood said.

“I have no doubt that the same will prove true of facial recognition technology in the years to come.”

An undated image of a police officer viewing a camera feed from inside a live facial recognition vehicle at an undisclosed location in England. Andrew Matthews/PA

There is currently no dedicated statute governing police use of facial recognition in England and Wales.

Earlier this month, Eleanor “Nell” Watson, a leading researcher and adviser on artificial intelligence ethics and transparency, criticized the increased deployment of surveillance technology.

“The UK is constructing infrastructure for a surveillance society while telling itself it is merely catching criminals,” she told The Epoch Times via email.

Mahmood also announced plans to scrap the existing 43 police constabularies in England and Wales, which would be reorganized into a dozen regional forces.

“Policing is not broken, as some might have us believe,” she told the House of Commons on Monday, “Last year, the police made over three-quarters of a million arrests, five percent more than the year before.”

She said knife crime was down and murder rates in London were at their lowest recorded level.

‘Epidemic of Everyday Crime’

“However, across the country, things feel very different. Communities are facing an epidemic of everyday crime that all too often seems to go unpunished, and criminals know it,” Mahmood said. “Theft has risen by 72 percent since 2010, phone theft is up 58 percent.”

The current 43 police forces in England and Wales were set up in 1974, but Mahmood said the world has changed dramatically.

“Criminals are operating online and across borders with greater sophistication than ever before, be they drug smugglers, people traffickers or child sexual abusers,” Mahmood said.

“The world has changed dramatically since policing was last fundamentally reformed over 50 years ago. Policing remains the last great unreformed public service.”

There were plans to merge police forces 20 years ago, but the idea was dropped by the Labour government of then-Prime Minister Tony Blair.

Labour won a general election in Britain last year, and Mahmood was installed as home secretary, tasked with sorting out Britain’s police and prisons.

“Consolidating the current model will make the police more cost-efficient, giving the taxpayer more value for money, while also ensuring a less fragmented system that will better serve the public and make them safer,” the Home Office said in the paper.

Criticism of ‘Mega-Forces’

The opposition Conservatives’ shadow home secretary, Chris Philp, criticized the plan to reduce the number of police forces from 43 to 12 and said it would create forces that would be too big.

“Such huge forces will be remote from the communities they serve. Resources will be drawn away from villages and towns towards large cities,” Philp said.

He added that the Metropolitan Police, Britain’s largest police force, had the worst crime-solving rates.

“That goes to show that large scale does not automatically deliver better results, and therefore we will oppose the mandated merger of county forces into remote regional mega-forces,” Philp said.

“Over the weekend, the Home Secretary was trailing this proposal as a British FBI,” Scottish National Party (SNP) MP Pete Wishart said.

“While it might indeed be their FBI, British, it most definitely is not, as it applies only to England and Wales.”

“In Scotland, we are immensely proud of our culture and ethos of policing by consent and the fact that we have the lowest crime rates in the whole of the UK. The last thing we want is this creeping Americanization,” Wishart added and demanded to know what powers the NPS would have in Scotland.

Mahmood said NPS would cover the whole of the UK.

“In England and Wales, it will have full operational powers and will be able to carry out its law enforcement activities,” she said.

“But in Scotland and Northern Ireland, it will carry out operations only with the agreement of the legally designated authority.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/29/2026 - 02:00

Why The US Was Right To Leave The WHO

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Commentary

The United States has pulled its membership in the World Health Organization (WHO), and many other nations are rethinking their participation. Of course, this could change with some future administration. The institution itself is not going anywhere. This is why it is crucial to understand the case for why the United States needed to pull out and cut all funding.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

Get out and stay out.

It’s also critically important that other nations join us and leave this organization. To top it all off, the WHO has become a pillar of duplicity even now.

Over the weekend, WHO head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said, “While WHO recommended the use of masks, physical distancing and vaccines, WHO did not recommend governments to mandate the use of masks or vaccines and never recommended lockdowns.”

This claim is easily refuted.

The evidence that WHO backed lockdowns begins on Jan. 29, 2020, when Tedros praised the Chinese Communist Party and Xi Jinping in particular to the skies for its “amazing” response to COVID-19, which included welding people inside their homes and arresting and likely killing people for disobeying the authorities.

Nothing like this had happened in the modern era in any country. The WHO was completely on board.

A few weeks following this celebratory news conference, the WHO organized a trip to Wuhan and several other cities in China. This junket involved the UK, EU, and the United States. This trip included Clifford Lane, a top aide to Dr. Anthony Fauci, and several other Americans. On the way back from this multi-city trip, they drafted the report that praised China’s response to the virus in terms that contradict every principle of public health.

This is before there were any lockdowns in the United States or the UK.

This Feb. 28, 2020, report, is still on the WHO website:

“Achieving China’s exceptional coverage with and adherence to these containment measures has only been possible due to the deep commitment of the Chinese people to collective action in the face of this common threat. At a community level this is reflected in the remarkable solidarity of provinces and cities in support of the most vulnerable populations and communities.”

It goes on:

“At the individual level, the Chinese people have reacted to this outbreak with courage and conviction. They have accepted and adhered to the starkest of containment measures—whether the suspension of public gatherings, the month-long ‘stay at home’ advisories or prohibitions on travel. Throughout an intensive 9-days of site visits across China, in frank discussions from the level of local community mobilizers and frontline health care providers to top scientists, the Joint Mission was struck by the sincerity and dedication that each brings to this COVID-19 response.”

Or as WHO spokesman Dr. Bruce Aylward said following his Wuhan mission in February 2020, “Copy China’s response to Covid!” This exhortation was praised by the Chinese Communist Party. Incredibly, the WHO was so influential on the world that 194 nations followed the model and did exactly that. They issued stay-at-home orders and shut business, churches, and schools.

Not only did the WHO support lockdowns, it urged them on the entire world in the name of public health, as a method of following the Chinese plan. Indeed, this report was the basis of the lockdowns that came to the United States and UK. It provided the cover necessary for imposing this unprecedented violation of rights.

When the lockdowns next came to Northern Italy, the WHO celebrated those, too. A spokesman for the WHO and director of WHO Europe, Hans Kluge expressed his “full support for the measures adopted by Italy to address the novel coronavirus emergency and the World Health Organization’s willingness to offer every means of full cooperation!”

The lockdowns came to the United States and most nations in mid-March 2020. Already the disaster was unfolding all around us within a week or two. A month later, the WHO urged nations not to open up too soon. They sent out communications demanding universal track-and-trace policies with testing, full protective equipment, social distancing, and a massive propaganda campaign of fear and loathing.

In other words, while the WHO recognized that people were going crazy in lockdowns and would not stand much more of this, it refused to recognize the need for freedom but rather doubled down on tyranny, surveillance, and control as the right way to manage a virus.

A month later, the WHO warned against lifting lockdowns because this would only result in more infections and danger. It posted on social media: “Further guidance was published that outlines the key questions countries should ask prior to the lifting of lockdowns: Is the epidemic under control? Is the health system able to cope with a resurgence of cases that may arise after relaxing certain measures?”

Later that month, the WHO said lockdowns are actually wonderful because they address the problem of climate change. “The pandemic has given us a glimpse of what our world could look like if we took the bold steps that are needed to curb #ClimateChange and #AirPollution,” it quoted Tedros as saying, in a social media post.

By mid-summer, the WHO said that lockdowns were great but not enough, and that all government should be engaged in universal contract tracing to control the virus that everyone would get anyway.

By October 2020 and following the Great Barrington Declaration, the WHO once again endorsed lockdowns. “We recognize that at certain points, some countries have had no choice but to issue Stay-At-Home orders and other lockdown measures, to buy time,” the WHO posted, quoting Tedros, on Oct. 12, 2020.

This was not accidental messaging, but rather stated WHO policy throughout.

The moment that the vaccine was rolled out, following the November 2020 election, the WHO actually changed its definition of herd immunity to exclude the possibility of natural immunity. It previously said that herd immunity is reached through vaccination or exposure from infection. The WHO suddenly eliminated the second point and said that vaccines are the only path.

What this note at the World Health Organization did was delete what amounts to the entire million-year history of humankind in its delicate dance with pathogens. You could only gather from this that all of us are nothing but blank and unimprovable slates on which the pharmaceutical industry writes its signature.

In addition, the editorial change at WHO ignored and even wiped out a century of medical advances in virology, immunology, and epidemiology. It was thoroughly unscientific—shilling for the vaccine industry in exactly the way that the conspiracy theorists say that the WHO has been doing since the beginning.

By the time that the virus weakened to become no more dangerous than a cold, the WHO was still at it. “We’re concerned that a narrative has taken hold in some countries that because of the vaccine, and because of Omicron’s high transmissibility and lower severity, preventing transmission is no longer possible, and no longer necessary. Nothing could be further from the truth,” it stated.

This was worse than bad health and policy advice. The WHO allowed itself to be used as a handmaiden of totalitarian controls across the globe. Many nations had trusted this organization and followed advice. This was a disaster for health and for freedom. The United States simply cannot be a member of such an organization.

The WHO once served a valuable function, and those functions are still necessary. That said, each nation alone needs to embrace its own health sovereignty based on its own needs. There is, in short, no such thing as global or world health. This is why every nation should leave the WHO, which proved itself to be completely compromised by its celebration of the CCP and then its promotion of a dangerous product. It has no credibility remaining to its name.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 23:25

New Footage Appears To Show Alex Pretti Spit At ICE, Break SUV Tail Light In Prior Minneapolis Confrontation

The killing of ICU nurse Alex Pretti in Minneapolis last Saturday sparked national outrage - particularly when it comes to the 2nd Amendment and his right to carry while protesting. The incident resulted in two federal agents involved in the shooting being placed on leave, and the ouster of US border patrol chief Gregory Bovino as the face of the Trump administration's mass deportation drive.

While the circumstances of his death are still under investigation - many believe this  gun went off after an agent took it off his body, spooking the shooter or shooters - he was known to federal authorities, and had suffered a broken rib during a violent confrontation with agents about a week before his death, CNN reported Tuesday.

Now, new footage appears to show Pretti armed and spitting at ICE agents before he smashes the taillights of their black SUV during a wild confrontation roughly a week before his death. 

Screenshot via The News Movement

The video, verified by the BBC, captures what appears to be Pretti screaming at federal agents while they were driving away during a Jan. 13 protest. As their SUV leaves, he kicks the taillight - breaking it, causing agents to exit the vehicle and tackle him to the ground. 

The agents continue to hold him down until he retreats and joins a crowd shouting at agents, as his gun is visibly tucked into the back of his pants. 

Screenshot via The News Movement

Watch:

Video of Peaceful Alex Pretti helping old ladies cross the street and doing volunteer work at the orphanage
OR
Swearing like a drunken sailor, spitting and destroying property pic.twitter.com/FChuxZ7Zwy

— Jim Hanson (@JimHansonDC) January 29, 2026

Prior to the protests, Pretti's parents specifically warned him against engaging. 

"We had this discussion with him two weeks ago or so, you know, that go ahead and protest, but do not engage, do not do anything stupid, basically," said Michael Pretti. "And he said he knows that. He knew that."

While this changes nothing about an American's 2nd Amendment rights, it certainly changes the narrative insofar as whether ICE agents identified Pretti prior to his death and considered him to have an elevated risk profile. 

So the “hero nurse” was actually a crazy psycho spitting on ICE agents and attacking their vehicle. Guy should have been charged for this. Might still be alive if he had been. He was looking for trouble for weeks. https://t.co/owRNNIvTRD

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) January 29, 2026

Well this aged incredibly poorly https://t.co/TBRPcVurG6

— Ian Miller (@ianmSC) January 28, 2026

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 23:00

The Campaign Against ICE Is All About Open Borders

Authored by Kevin M. Spivak via RealClearPolitics,

Most of the recent vitriolic opposition to ICE is a feint by unrepentant open-borders progressives. They won the first round when Joe Biden was elected president, lost the second when Donald Trump returned to office, and are back for a rematch.

Democratic leaders portray ICE agents as violent Gestapo thugs and murderers. They claim ICE kidnaps good people off the street, rips apart their families and communities, and deprives them of due process. They give lip service to deporting the “worst of the worst,” but they lead sanctuary cities that release hardened criminal illegal aliens and incite protesters to harass and prevent ICE from arresting rapists, child predators, and killers.

For most, the venom has little to do with how ICE performs its mission and everything to do with preventing the Trump administration from undoing Biden’s brazen deluge of illegal migrants. But for the protests, ICE would be nearly invisible to most Americans, who abhor these violent confrontations. Instead, two Americans have tragically died in Minneapolis.

Democratic leaders deflect when challenged with the fact that disruption and mistakes would be greatly reduced if sanctuary cities turned over criminals already confined. Minnesota alone refuses to comply with 1,360 detainers for illegal aliens in its jails, including 500 previously ordered to be deported by federal judges.

The Democratic establishment sees mass immigration as the path to secure permanent rule, with much of the radical left expecting immigrants to force America to abandon its traditional values.

A refresher on how the Biden administration unlawfully admitted at least 12 million unvetted migrants underscores the radical left’s deep commitment to open borders. It also explains why Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Alan Frey flirt with insurrection by inflaming rage-filled protesters who accost ICE agents, invade churches, and protect criminals.

On his first day in office, Biden stopped construction of Trump’s border wall and ended the “Remain in Mexico” policy. He dismantled virtually all Trump immigration policies, exempted most illegal immigrants from deportation, granted protected status to about 1 million illegals, boosted refugee admissions, issued green cards to immigrants who required public benefits, allowed Title 42 authority to lapse – increasing illegal immigration by nearly one million migrants each year, distributed free cell phones and housing subsidies to entice even more illegal immigration, and, in the dead of night, flew hundreds of thousands of migrants from the southern border into American cities and towns.

In 2024, just five of 203 Democrats in the U.S. House supported legislation requiring proof of citizenship to vote, and the Biden Justice Department sued Virginia to prevent it from removing noncitizens from its voter rolls.

Trump won his second term on a platform of closing the borders and deporting illegal aliens, particularly those admitted by Biden or who had committed other crimes. Polls show majority support for deporting all illegal immigrants, and 78% support (including 69% of Democrats) for deporting criminal illegal aliens.

Despite Minnesota’s refusal to cooperate, ICE has already arrested 3,000 illegal aliens in Operation Metro, including migrants convicted of murder, aggravated assault, domestic abuse, drug trafficking, and other serious crimes. Claims that ICE’s mandate is unlawful or unconstitutional, or that it requires permission from sanctuary cities, is nonsense, repudiated by the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution, 250 years of jurisprudence, and well-settled federal law.

So far, Biden-appointed U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez has refused to grant the temporary restraining order (TRO) to stop ICE sought by Minnesota, Minneapolis, and St. Paul in a frivolous lawsuit that inverts the 10th Amendment into a right for states or even cities to veto federal laws they dislike. Though, in a separate lawsuit, she ordered ICE not to arrest or tear-gas peaceful demonstrators who are not obstructing ICE or who are “safely” following from an “appropriate” distance. That virtue-signaling order, now stayed by the Eighth Circuit pending an appeal, largely summarizes existing law. It likely would not have applied to Renee Good or Alex Pretti.

Contrary to Democratic spin, Good was part of a group that sought to derail ICE operations. She had been stalking ICE, and obstructed its vehicles with her SUV. Instead of complying with instructions to step out of her SUV, she abruptly accelerated, hitting an ICE agent hard enough to cause internal bleeding. As her SUV leapt forward, the agent fired, killing her.

Good either intended to strike the agent, or she acted recklessly by hitting the accelerator on a snowy, icy road in an SUV surrounded by agents. The legally relevant question for the agent is whether he reasonably believed that he or others were in “imminent danger” of death or serious injury.

It is unclear why a Border Patrol agent fatally shot Pretti on Saturday, during yet another protest. Video shows that he intervened between an agent and a woman. To the administration, he was an “armed domestic terrorist.” To Democrats, he was a “murdered nurse.” Both include some truth and premature conclusions. What is known is that he was doing something he should not have been doing because Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. shamelessly ignored America’s sovereignty to admit tens of millions of illegals, and now Democratic leaders and the progressive media are willing to sacrifice people like Good and Pretti on the corrupt altar of open borders.

Polls show that the all-out Democratic campaign to vilify ICE; disturbing video of militarized law enforcement officers in gas masks and fatigues; a growing toll of injuries and fatalities, regardless of fault; adverse court decisions, though many are reversed on appeal; and the administration’s caustic rhetoric are eroding support for ICE and Trump’s deportation program, and may imperil Republican control of the House.

The administration requires support from the public to keep ICE and the public safe, and for ICE to be effective. Democrats sense weakness, and will do everything they can to prevent that. The administration must be the adult in this situation. It must soften its language. ICE should avoid militarized operations and more clearly focus on deporting criminal aliens, and unvetted illegal aliens admitted during the Biden administration. Although it’s time for a reset, backing down is not an option.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 22:35

Putin Hosts Syria's Sharaa As Russian Forces Exit North In Tandem With US Drawdown 

Syria's self-declared President Ahmad al-Sharaa is in Moscow on Wednesday, where he has met with President Vladimir Putin, at a moment Russia's long-running presence in Syria is in question. Sharaa, formerly Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who founded Syrian al-Qaeda and began fighting the ousted President Assad under the flag of ISIS, is trying to shore up international recognition for his rule.

"Russia has supported Syria’s territorial integrity and unity, and has also played a historic role in the stability of the region," President Putin stated during the meeting. "I would like to emphasise the need to preserve Syria's unity and territorial integrity."

He hinted that ending the American occupation of the oil and gas rich northeast is paramount. "The return of eastern Syria to Damascus’s control is an important step," Putin said.

via Reuters

But while Russian forces are still present at historic bases on the coast, there are signs of a final Russian withdrawal from the country underway, also as US troops appear to be making a slow exit:

Days before the scheduled meeting, Russian forces began a phased withdrawal from Qamishli Airport in northeast Syria, relocating personnel and equipment to the Hmeimim Air Base in Latakia, according to a security source cited by Shafaq News last week.

...The final stage involved the relocation of what the source described as an “elite team,” marking the departure of the last Russian contingent stationed at the airport. The redeployment was carried out in coordination with both Syrian and US sides, according to the same account.

AP journalists who visited the base next to Qamishli airport reported it was guarded by Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighters, who said Russian troops had been “evacuating bit by bit” over several days.

Conflict has been engulfing the same region, as Syrian forces loyal to Sharaa attack Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces. While the US trained and weaponized the SDF for years, Washington appears to be throwing its Kurdish allies under the bus once again.

ISIS/Daesh hits the Kremlin.

After being normalized in Washington and Brussels.

Realpolitik may take precedence, but the optics are dreadful. pic.twitter.com/LGODGRvxqw

— Pepe Escobar (@RealPepeEscobar) January 28, 2026

Kremlin spokesman Peskov had previously said ahead of Sharaa being hosted in Moscow that "the presence of our soldiers in Syria" would be discussed.

According to Al Jazeera:

Moscow had been worried about the possibility of a “populist anti-Russia” government emerging in Damascus when Bashar al-Assad was overthrown, Samuel Ramani, an associate fellow at the London-based RUSI think tank, told Al Jazeera.

“They feared he [al-Sharaa] would squeeze them out, but the Russians have been pleasantly surprised, even if they’ve had to downgrade their ties from before,” Ramani added.

Indeed Moscow has sought to keep its lone deep water port and Mediterranean base at Tartus, and this appears to be happening. But there has been a military and equipment draw-down, and now the Russian operations are said to be 'humanitarian-focused'.

Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa:

“Russia has supported Syria’s territorial integrity and unity, and has also played a historic role in the stability of the region.”

Russian President Putin:

“I would like to emphasise the need to preserve Syria’s unity and territorial… pic.twitter.com/96lFJuMNPN

— Levent Kemal (@leventkemaI) January 28, 2026

Russia seems to be hinting that it is OK with a draw down so long as the Americans exit the region too. One irony in all this is that Assad and his family are currently living in exile from their homeland at a posh Moscow apartment, keeping a very low profile.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 22:10

Free Speech Isn't Free and It Cost Charlie Kirk Everything

Authored by Kristan Hawkins via RealClearPolitics,

The First Amendment protections for free speech have inspired people worldwide and laid the foundation not just for American society but also for entire industries – from social media to this very publication. But as someone who travels the country both speaking and setting up events on college and university campuses, I can tell you that “free speech” isn’t free. 

Nobody knows that better than those of us mourning Charlie Kirk’s passing. At this time last year, Students for Life of America honored Charlie as our  “Defender of Life” at our sold-out National Pro-life Summit, and this year at the National Pro-Life March, our signs and messaging will create a sea of thousands of young people celebrating his legacy. But in the wake of his murder, I continue to reflect on the high cost of free speech for those of us who refuse to abandon college and university campuses. 

Manipulative schools have worked hard to develop financial and logistical obstacles to student speech – from special, additional, and often last-minute insurance to requirements for bomb-sniffing dogs. And everything comes with a price tag. 

To practice “free” speech, we start with time-consuming permits with the endless, additional, and sometimes arbitrary requirements that come with a cost. 

Special event insurance can run from $800 to $5,000, though in Washington, D.C., it can easily run close to $15,000 or higher. We were actually quoted a $20,000 fee in required event insurance to chalk pro-life messages in Miami. 

And if you need to rent a bomb-sniffing dog – because why not – it usually runs $650. My Kevlar vest set me back $1,000. And police, on campus or off, with or without weapons, county, city, or state (which has a range), commonly add $1,200 per event. Private security, if needed, has a price of about $600 per professional. Equipment rental for security wands or metal detectors may be needed. And we can’t forget that a commitment to free speech is a decision to keep lawyers on retainer, especially for the last-minute “requirements” from school administrators.

Even before the tragedy that ended my dear friend’s life, security costs for our Students for Life events had risen about 25%, putting the average cost of a campus event at $4,000. That’s a lot of money for a passionate student to raise, and we work with them to make it happen. 

But not everyone can afford free speech. 

Students for Life’s Demetree Institute for Pro-Life Advancement just released our 2026 Survey USA poll, looking at the abortion views of registered youth voters. 

They understand that free speech comes at a high cost. Asked about whether colleges and universities should prioritize and financially support free speech, more than nine in 10 (93%) said yes, with 33% saying it’s extremely important. 

But they are worried about those engaging on campus. Almost half (49%) of registered youth voters think violence on college campuses and in public spaces has increased, and more than nine in 10 (92%) are concerned about violence directed at those using their free speech rights, with one in four extremely concerned.

Their fears are probably heightened by the 2025 Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) annual College Free Speech Rankings survey, which reported that one in three students thought it was acceptable to use violence to stop speech. 

Previously, the most common attacks on free speech have been: 

A Vandals Veto seen in destroyed messaging and outright theft of displays and signs, and lately in a trend of protestors eating rubber fetal models brought to illustrate the size of babies in the womb. 

A Heckler’s Veto, in which schools cancel or move events when extremist groups or a disgruntled student oppose a speaker. 

A Slow-Walk-to-Nowhere when a pattern of delays for approval of events or clubs creates a virtual veto of student speech.  

A Not-Even-Separate-but-Equal Accommodation as schools refuse similar support for pro-life students as given to others. 

A Religious Gag Rule in which schools may allow students to speak as long as they stay silent about faith. 

A Required “Trigger Warning” in which the school signals through signs posted in the areas where pro-life speech is taking place that such speech is controversial and offensive, to be possibly avoided or protested.  

A Power-of-the-Purse Veto involving biased use of student fees. 

A Threat-of-Violence Veto, making school administrators unwilling to allow any speech that might be confrontational. 

And a Big Brother’s Threat of Doxxing move.  

But now we deal with a supersized Virtual Poll Tax on some students’ speech. 

Our team has endured bomb threats, vandalizations, stolen and damaged property, physical attacks, urine throwing, stalking, student doxxing, and general cruelty, all of which can raise the emotional cost of public speech. Threats of rape and murder are common, and we keep a file, just in case. 

Such opposition is surely designed to discourage those who wish to participate in the free marketplace of ideas. Silence Dogood, believed to be a pseudonym of Benjamin Franklin, wrote, “Whoever would overthrow the liberty of a nation must begin by subduing the freeness of speech.”

But it’s not free. And without better support, many will be priced out of the public arena. 

Kristan Hawkins is president of Students for Life of America and Students for Life Action, with more than 1,600 groups on middle and high school, college and university, medical and law school campuses in all 50 states. Follow her @KristanHawkins or subscribe to her podcast, The Kristan Hawkins Show.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 21:45

California Man With Underground Bunker, Weapons Cache Arrested In CHP Raid

Reminder to Californians; you do not live in a free state, and they don't play around. 

Michael Jay Kamfolt, pictured in a red sweatshirt and hat, at a No Kings protest on Feb. 17, 2025 in Redding, California. Photo by Annelise Pierce.

Last week the California Highway Patrol (CHP) announced that they arrested Michael Jay Kamfolt, a 40-year-old conservative activist who has an underground bunker containing a cache of 'illegal weapons,' ammo, and body armor. 

After receiving tip about an illegal marijuana grow operation, CHP Air Operations conducted a flyover of the property located in the city of Anderson, located around 150 miles north of Sacramento in Shasta County. 

Authorities conducted a month-long investigation of the property owned by Kamfolt, after which CHP executed a search warrant at the location on Jan. 20. 

And while they didn't find any weed being grown, officers recovered 13 firearms - including three AR-style assault rifles, one of which was a "ghost gun" without a serial number, along with a sawed-off shotgun and two firearms that had been reported stolen, one in 2016 and the other in 1978. 

A 'ghost gun' can be assembled at home, which is usually milled out of a hunk of aluminum or 3D printed. 

The bunker, equipped with power, ventilation, a concrete floor with built-in drainage, and the necessary supplies to grow weed, also contains a home gym, armchair, television, and workbench with a Bennington flag.

Investigators also found roughly 10,000 rounds of ammunition - an amount not uncommon among enthusiasts and preppers, including armor piercing rounds, 30 high-capacity magazines, and four soft-body armor vests. 

"During the search, officers discovered an underground bunker accessible through a 100-foot-long culvert," reads a press release. 'The bunker was equipped with power, ventilation, a concrete floor with built-in drainage and the necessary supplies to cultivate marijuana." 

Kamfolt was arrested and booked for the following: 

• 30605(a) PC – Possession of an Assault Rifle
• 30600(a) PC – Manufacturing of an Assault Rifle
• 33215 PC – Manufacturing of a Short Barreled Rifle
• 32625(a) PC – Possession of a Machine Gun
• 32625(b) PC – Converting a firearm into a Machine Gun
• 23920 PC – Possession of an Altered Firearm Serial Number
• 24610 PC – Manufacturing and Possession of an Undetectable Firearm
• 496(a) – Possession of a Stolen Firearm
• 29180(b) PC – Manufacturing of a “Ghost Gun”
• 30315 PC – Possession of Armor Penetrating Ammunition
• 32310(C) PC – Possession of High Capacity magazine

He was held in the Shasta County Jail overnight. Bail was set at $50,000 and he is no longer in custody according to county jail records.

According to county records available so far, Kamfolt is not facing federal charges. Some of his alleged offenses — such as owning a machine gun — are only illegal in certain states such as California, while other allegations, like obliterating an identifying marker on a firearm, also violate federal gun laws. 

Kamfolt was also active in local politics:

In November of 2024, the day before the presidential election, Kamfolt visited the county election office with Supervisor Crye who said he’d just met Kamfolt that day. Speaking to a reporter, Kamfolt expressed his support for Crye’s work in the community and his interest in the importance of this particular election. He said he wanted to observe for himself that it was being facilitated correctly. At the time, former Registrar of Voters Tom Toller was running the election office. 

A few days later, Kamfolt made an appearance at a county board meeting alongside members of the local Cottonwood Militia. The group showed up after community member Jenny O’Connell-Nowain was arrested for allegedly disrupting the meeting. She was protesting statements by Supervisor Patrick Jones about another election official, former Assistant Registrar of Voters Joanna Francescut. Earlier this month, O’Connell-Nowain was found guilty of disrupting that meeting by a Shasta County jury. -Shasta Scout

"This operation went far beyond an illegal grow," said CHP Northern Division Chief John Pinoli. "The combination of a hidden bunker and an alarming cache of illegal firearms and ammunition highlights the threat posed to public safety."

Again, Californians - your state doesn't play around.  

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 21:20

Century Aluminum To Construct First US Aluminum Plant In More Than 40 Years

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Illinois-based Century Aluminum Co. has entered into a joint development agreement with Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) to construct the “first new primary aluminum production plant in the United States since 1980,” Century said in a statement on Jan. 26.

Employees work with aluminum ingots at a factory in Huaibei, Anhui province, China, on Feb. 9, 2022. STR/AFP via Getty Images

Primary aluminum production involves smelting alumina to produce new aluminum metal. This differs from secondary production, in which existing aluminum is recycled.

“The new plant, to be built in Inola, Oklahoma, as previously announced by EGA, is expected to produce 750,000 tonnes of aluminum per year, larger than previously envisioned and more than doubling current U.S. production. The Inola plant will create 1,000 permanent direct jobs at the facility and 4,000 jobs during construction,” Century stated.

“About 85 percent of the aluminum needs of American industries are currently met by imports. The new smelter will expand the domestic supply of this critical mineral and grow the American aluminum workforce, revitalizing U.S. aluminum expertise and know-how.”

According to data from the International Aluminum Institute, China was the largest producer of primary aluminum in 2025, accounting for an estimated 44.2 million metric tons out of the 73.78 million metric tons of global output.

Commenting on Century’s plan to build a U.S. aluminum smelter, White House deputy press secretary Kush Desai said in a Jan. 26 post on X, “President Trump’s tariffs are working.”

Trump’s Tariffs

In March 2025, the Trump administration’s 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports came into effect. In June, the tariff rate doubled to 50 percent.

At the time, the Aluminum Association, a group representing the U.S. aluminum industry, had struck a cautious tone on the tariffs, saying they would neither increase domestic aluminum output nor support mid- and downstream industries.

In a post on June 5, 2025, the Council on Foreign Relations warned that if aluminum and steel prices were to rise, it could negatively affect industries such as automotive, appliances, electrical, oil and gas, and machinery.

President Donald Trump justified the tariffs in February 2025, a month before the 25 percent tariff took effect, saying they were essential to bolster domestic production, bring jobs back to the United States, and stop other nations from taking advantage of the United States.

“Our nation requires steel and aluminum to be made in America, not in foreign lands,” he said at the time. “This is a big deal, the beginning of making America rich again.”

In August 2025, the federal government announced tariff hikes on more than 400 products, subjecting them to the 50 percent steel and aluminum import tariffs.

The move affected 407 product categories, including furniture, railcars, and compressors.

Jeffrey Kessler, undersecretary of commerce for industry and security, said at the time that the action “expands the reach of the steel and aluminum tariffs and shuts down avenues for circumvention—supporting the continued revitalization of the American steel and aluminum industries.”

Aluminum Plant

Construction of the Inola plant is set to begin by the end of the year, and production is scheduled to kick off by the end of the decade, Century stated.

The plant will be constructed at the industrial park at Tulsa Port of Inola, located on the McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System, which connects to the Mississippi River system, providing efficient bulk freight movement.

Once construction is completed, the Inola plant will be the largest ever primary aluminum production plant in the United States.

The plant is expected to drive forward the development of an aluminum-focused industrial hub in the state, which would result in thousands of additional jobs, Century stated.

Under the deal, EGA, the world’s largest “premium aluminum” producer, will own 60 percent of the joint venture, and Century will hold the remaining 40 percent. The plant will use EGA’s “state-of-the-art” EX technology, its next-generation aluminum smelting technology.

Jesse Gary, CEO of Century Aluminum, said that key industries such as aerospace, automotive, construction, and national defense stand to benefit “greatly” from the venture.

“Our partner EGA brings world-class smelting technology and construction expertise that are fast-tracking our collective efforts to realize President Trump’s vision of rapidly increasing domestic primary aluminum production,” he said.

“We are once again proving that President Trump’s leadership is working to spur investment and innovation to revitalize the U.S. aluminum industry, which is essential to our nation’s defense and the economic vitality of working-class communities across the country.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 20:55

GM CEO Warns Of 'Very Slippery Slope' As Canada To Import Cheap Chinese EVs

Shortly before Davos, Canada and China announced a 5-point 'strategic partnership' which includes slashing tariffs on Chinese EVs from 100% to 6.1% for the first 49,000 units, in exchange for China cutting tariffs on Canadian canola from 85% to 15% until at least the end of the year. 

After Donald Trump stomped his feet and threatened to slap a 100% tariff on Canadian exports, PM Mark Carney assured the US that the deal with China was simply 'rectifying' some 'issues' that developed over the last several years. 

Yet, the reduced EV tariffs remain...

In response, General Motors CEO Mary Barra told employees at an all-hands meeting that the EV deal is a risk to North American auto manufacturing, WSJ reports. 

Mary Barra, Chair and CEO of the General Motors Company (GM), speaks during the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, on May 2, 2022. Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty Images

"I can’t explain why the decision was made in Canada," Barra told employees, warning "It becomes a very slippery slope," and noting that Chinese automakers benefit in China from high tariffs imposed on importers, plus technology restrictions that prevent other companies from entering their market. 

Under the agreement between China and Canada, at least half of the EVs imported would be required to have a price of $35,000 Canadian dollars (US$26,000), according to Carney's office. Canada will also work with Chinese automakers to ensure timely vehicle certifications, and that they meet the country's motor-vehicle safety standards.

Illustration via insideevs.com

Canada, meanwhile, is a major market for Detroit automakers. In 2025, Ford, GM and Jeep owner Stellantis sold over 700,000 vehicles combined in Canada. One factor which makes this easy is that Canada's emissions standards closely mirror those of the US. 

That said, Canada's auto industry has been burnt, badly by Trump's tariffs on vehicles and parts made there, causing US automakers to scale back manufacturing as a result. Last year GM made the decision to stop making slow-selling electric vans at an Ingersoll, Ontario factory, while Stellantis has canceled plans to build the electric Jeep Compass in Ontario - and will instead make them in Illinois. 

Chinese automakers, meanwhile, have been rapidly gaining global market share in recent years, but continue to be effectively barred from entering the massive US car market due to triple-digit tariffs on Chinese vehicle imports. Meanwhile, they're making roughly 25% of new Chinese cars in Mexico. 

We hear they're pretty cool too. 

h/t Capital.news

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 20:30