OPEC +/-

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Brent futures topped $115/barrel, after news broke that US President Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. According to CNN’s sources, Iran is expected to submit a revised proposal in the next few days. However, it is unclear why Trump would accept this new version, unless Iran is suddenly willing to make concessions on its nuclear program.

Meanwhile, Reuters reports that US intelligence agencies are studying how Iran would respond if President Trump simply declared victory – suggesting that pressure on the president to end the war quickly is building. However, the White House states that they will “not be rushed into a bad deal.” Indeed, as the Wall Street Journal reports, the President prefers “decisive victories” and told his aides to prepare for an “extended blockade.” Military options remain on the table, but Reuters’ sources note that the cost of a full-scale war is now higher than it was at the start of the ceasefire. Iran has used the time to dig out materiel that was buried in the US bombings.

In short, negotiations between the two sides remain as stuck as the ships trapped in the Persian Gulf. And odds of a military campaign that quickly breaks the stalemate appear to have lessened. So, with no end in sight for the closure of Hormuz, futures prices are closing in on physical prices.

But news that the United Arab Emirates will withdraw from OPEC as of 1 May stemmed the advance of futures prices. The Ministry of Energy says the government decided to OPECxit, as the country wants to grow its output “based on national interest” and its commitment to “meet the market’s pressing needs.” But, as our energy strategists note, this does not change anything about the near-term supply-demand balance. Only after the Iran war ends, and the Strait of Hormuz reopens can we discuss the UAE ramping up oil production.

But the UAE’s departure could have broader ramifications for both OPEC and the region. If other countries follow the example set by the Emirates, it erodes the OPEC’s cartel.

The balance of powers in the region already seems to be shifting. The announcement followed days after the UAE negotiated a dollar swap line with the US, and after Israel sent an Iron Dome system and personnel to operate the air defences to the country. And it emphasises the growing rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, as the UAE moves more clearly into the US camp – which includes Israel.

As gradually as financial markets seem to be pricing in the impact of the war in Iran, so quickly are consumers taking it into account. Inflation expectations have risen rapidly in the latest round of the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey. The sharp increase in 1-year expectations is not too surprising, but notably consumers’ expectations of inflation 3 years ahead rose equally quickly – from 2.5% to 3.0%.

That puts medium-term inflation expectations back around the highs of the Russian gas crisis, even though the relative price shock has been much more muted so far. It suggests that memories of the previous energy crisis are making consumers more wary of new price shocks. We would not consider this a de-anchoring of inflation expectations yet, but it does underscore the risk that second-round effects could take hold via wage or price setting more quickly.

This adds some pressure on the ECB to act this week already. Our base case remains a hold, but the survey suggests that the probability of a hike may be a bit higher than the 10% implied by money markets. In any case, policymakers will not be very comfortable with their decision.

Adding to that unease, Bruegel has calculated that about 80% of EU governments’ energy support measures are untargeted. The largest commitments are directed towards lowering fuel excise duties or VAT. As Bruegel notes, that is contrary to the recommendations of the European Commission and the European Central Bank. At €10.5 billion, the total amount committed to energy support measures is still small, but untargeted measures increase the risk that the energy price shock could become a broader and more persistent inflationary pressure

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 11:00

Bloom Energy Erupts On Beat, Guidance Upgrade As On-Site Data Center Power Demand Soars

Clean-power company Bloom Energy surged early in the U.S. cash session after reporting earnings Tuesday after the close, raising its full-year revenue and margin guidance on rising demand from data centers and other commercial customers. 

The maker of solid oxide fuel cell systems, branded as Bloom Energy Servers, that generate electricity on-site for customers, posted a profit of $70.7 million, or 23 cents a share, compared with a loss of $23.8 million, or 10 cents a share, from the same quarter one year ago. 

On an adjusted basis, earnings came in at 44 cents per share in the first quarter, beating analysts' estimates tracked by Bloomberg of 8.4 cents per share.

Here's a snapshot of first-quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

Adjusted EPS 44c, estimate 8.4c

EPS 23c 

Revenue $751.1 million, estimate $535.3 million

• Product revenue $653.3 million, estimate $397.9 million
• Installation sales $25.9 million, estimate $49.2 million
• Service revenue $61.9 million, estimate $71.7 million
• Electricity revenue $9.90 million, estimate $14.1 million

Adjusted Ebitda $143.0 million, estimate $52.9 million

Adjusted net income $138.1 million, estimate $26.7 million

"We at Bloom are ushering in the era of digital power for the digital age. Bloom is rapidly becoming the standard and "go-to choice" for on-site power," Bloom CEO KR Sridhar wrote in an earnings press release.

For the full year forecast, here's what Bloom expects:

Sees revenue $3.4 billion to $3.8 billion, saw $3.1 billion to $3.3 billion, estimate $3.25 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

Sees adj. gross margin about 34%, saw about 32%, estimate 31.9%v

Shares of Bloom jumped as much as 20% in the cash session to a new record high.

Wall Street analysts were broadly positive (commentary courtesy of Bloomberg):

Citi (neutral, PT raised to $281 from $229)

• Analyst Vikram Bagri sees the first quarter revenue beat as strong, driven by capacity expansions and product sales

• Sees second-quarter revenue rising on continued strong momentum, cost discipline and improving gross margins and operating leverage

• "International opportunities continue to progress, albeit at a measured pace amid a challenging geopolitical and energy backdrop, with the majority of AI‑driven power demand currently concentrated in the US"

Morgan Stanley (overweight, PT raised to $310 from $184)

• Analyst David Arcaro sees Bloom's outlook as attractive with revenue and profit set to increase and margins continuing to expand

• "We believe the confirmation of the recent Oracle deal likely contributed to the increase, with at least 1.2 GW being delivered over 2026 and 2027, and the company also suggested broadbased strength across data center and C&I end markets"

• Sees manufacturing efficiencies improving gross margins

Jefferies (hold, PT raised to $207 from $187)

• Analyst Dushyant Ailani sees the guidance raise as positive with gross margins improving on cost optimization and productivity

• "BE is increasingly moving beyond the 'bridge solution' narrative, supported by its standalone microgrid deployment with Oracle and similar discussions with other customers"

• Sees Bloom reaching at least 2 GW of capacity by year-end 2026 as additions continue

Bloom peers, including Plug Power, FuelCell Energy, and Ballard Power Systems, also moved higher.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 10:45

The post Quick Thought on AI and the Environment: It Should Mean MORE Environmental Regulation appeared first on CEPR.

In Huge Win For Republicans, Supreme Court Curbs Use Of Race In Drawing Voting Districts

In a sweeping 6-3 decision issued today, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Louisiana’s congressional map with a second majority-Black district is an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. The ruling in Louisiana v. Callais (No. 24-109) delivers a major victory for Republicans by sharply curtailing the Voting Rights Act’s ability to compel the creation of predominantly Black or Hispanic districts - a development that could help the GOP protect and expand its House majority in the 2026 midterms and beyond.

Writing for the Court, Justice Samuel Alito held that Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, properly interpreted, did not require Louisiana to draw the additional majority-Black district in Senate Bill 8. Because the state’s use of race was not justified by a compelling interest, the map violated the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment.

A Major Reset of Voting Rights Law

Huge victory for GOP with big implications for race for House https://t.co/QRTl01bxt2

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) April 29, 2026

The decision does far more than resolve one Louisiana map. It fundamentally updates the legal framework for Voting Rights Act challenges that has been in place since Thornburg v. Gingles (1986). The Court made three critical changes that will make it significantly harder for plaintiffs to force race-conscious districting:

• Illustrative maps must be race-neutral: Plaintiffs can no longer draw “demonstration maps” that deliberately maximize majority-minority districts. Any alternative map must fully comply with all of a state’s legitimate, non-racial districting goals - including traditional criteria and the state’s partisan political objectives.
• Race must be disentangled from party: To prove political cohesion and racial bloc voting, plaintiffs must now control for partisan affiliation. Simply showing that Black voters and white voters support different candidates is no longer enough if the pattern tracks party preference rather than race.
• Focus on current intentional discrimination: The “totality of circumstances” analysis must center on evidence of present-day intentional racial discrimination in voting. Historical discrimination and generalized “societal effects” carry far less weight.

These changes align Section 2 more closely with the Fifteenth Amendment’s prohibition on intentional racial discrimination and the Constitution’s general bar on race-based government action.

SCOTUS issues opinion in Voting Rights Act case

6-3 strikes down Louisiana map along ideological lines

Likely means there will be one less Black opportunity district

BUT does not strike down Section 2 of VRA

Quick read is that only affects handful of districts right now https://t.co/8tR9kdS6ys

— Sam Shirazi (@samshirazim) April 29, 2026

Developing...

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 10:30

Brent Pushes Higher After Trump Orders "Extended Blockade" - Huddles With Oil Execs Over Hormuz Summary

• Trump recently met this week with oil and gas executives at the White House to address energy fallout, and as oil pushes higher: Axios.

• Trump warns Iran to "get their act together" and to "get smart" - and for the second time writes "no more Mr. Nice Guy".

• Trump in 4am Truth Social post: "Iran can't get their act together. They don't know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon!"

• Fresh White House statement indicates communication still open with Tehran, but still says "Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon."

//--> //--> Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes 34% · No 67%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Trump Huddles with Oil Execs: Axios

President Trump recently met this week with oil and gas executives at the White House to address the energy fallout from the Iran war, per fresh Axios reporting, as supply disruptions push prices higher and create both opportunity and risk for the industry. Among those attending were Mike Wirth of Chevron, along with senior officials including Susie Wiles, Scott Bessent, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner.

A White House official said, "The president meets with energy executives frequently to get their feedback on domestic and international energy markets," with discussions covering domestic production, Venezuela, oil futures, natural gas, and shipping. It should be noted that while Trump "huddles" with oil CEOs, Republicans in Congress are still too scared to so much as pass a simple War Powers Resolution, or to have real robust debate over the merits of the Iran War.

The Middle East supply shock is obviously driving up global crude and US gasoline prices, which sets up for huge implications for Republicans come next fall's midterms. Oil prices have extended their multi-day rally, surpassing $116 a barrel:

Brent crude futures for June rose $4.24, or 3.81%, to $115.50 a barrel by 1255 GMT, climbing for an eighth day to the highest level since March 31. The June contract expires on Thursday and the more active July contract was up 3.86% at $108.43.

Oil Pushing Toward Iran War Highs

Earlier in the morning, Brent crude oil has neared $115 per barrel, driven by the ongoing Hormuz Strait blockade and standoff, and war fears - in a seventh straight session of gains.

This latest move higher follows Tuesday night's WSJ report that the US plans to extend its blockade of Iranian ports, intensifying fears of prolonged disruption through the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz. 

As a reminder, the president has told aides and his staff that he's prepared to implement an extended blockade:

President Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, U.S. officials said, targeting the regime’s coffers in a high-risk bid to compel a nuclear capitulation Tehran has long refused.

In recent meetings, including a Monday discussion in the Situation Room, Trump opted to continue squeezing Iran’s economy and oil exports by preventing shipping to and from its ports. He assessed that his other options—resume bombing or walk away from the conflict—carried more risk than maintaining the blockade, officials said.

4am Truth Social

This isn't exactly a 'new' threat, as it's something he said on April 19 as well, but President Trump in a 4am Truth Social post warned Iran to "get smart soon" as the White House reviews military options for the Strait of Hormuz.

"Iran can't get their act together. They don't know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon!" Trump wrote early Wednesday, alongside an image showing him with a weapon and the message "NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!"

Members of Trump's national security team presented multiple options during a Situation Room meeting this week, including whether to increase or reduce the US military presence in the strait and whether to adopt a more aggressive operational posture, NBC News reported, citing an unnamed US official and a person familiar with the discussions. According to the WSJ Tuesday evening, the president has told aides and his staff that he's prepared to implement an extended blockade.

WH still Communicating With Tehran

And yet, the White House says negotiators are still in communication with the Iranians, who are "struggling to sort out their leadership situation" amid the war. Trump on Tuesday claimed Tehran officials told him the country is in a "State of Collapse" - though obviously it's highly dubious they would communicate that to him.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told media that Trump would only enter into an agreement with Iran that "puts US national security first" and that "He has been clear that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon." However, the Iranians themselves have made it clear they would never just transfer their enriched uranium out of the country. Their latest proposal has centered on lifting the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz first, and then leaving the nuclear issues for future negotiation after the war is resolved.

More Latest Developments

via Newsquawk

• Donald Trump told officials to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, The Wall Street Journal reported citing sources; Trump has opted to keep squeezing Iran’s economy, judging other options as higher risk than maintaining the blockade.
• Trump posted, “Iran can’t get their act together. They don’t know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon! President DJT,” alongside an image of himself holding a rifle with explosions behind him and the caption “NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!”.
• Trump said the US is “doing very well in the Middle East,” adding that King Charles III agrees Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb.
• Iran’s Vice Chairman of the National Security Council Alaeddin Boroujerdi said negotiations are being handled directly by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who “personally manages” them.
• Iran pushed back on US claims regarding pipeline explosions, Islamic Republic News Agency reported.
• A senior Pakistani official said mediation efforts continue, working to narrow the gap between the US and Iran.
• Scott Bessent said the Treasury has targeted Iran’s financial infrastructure, disrupting tens of billions in revenue; Kharg Island is nearing maximum storage capacity, forcing Iran to cut oil production.
• The Israeli army carried out a large-scale bombing operation east of Gaza City.
• The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said new capabilities are ready to counter any new US attack, Press TV reported.
• Israel Hayom reported that Israel may accept a limited ceasefire with Lebanon contingent on Hezbollah’s disbandment, according to Al Hadath.
• An Israeli army commander said, “we are not talking about destroying terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon, but rather destroying everything,” according to Haaretz.
• A political aide to the IRGC said, “we will respond to any new aggression with surprises and new capabilities, will burn America's giant ships at sea if they miscalculate again,” Al Jazeera Mubasher reported.
• Sanae Takaichi said Japan will engage with Iran to ensure safe passage of ships.
• The US Treasury has frozen $344 million in crypto linked to Iran, Fox Business reported citing officials.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 10:25

Fed Chair Pick Warsh Approved By Key Senate Committee Along Party Lines

The drama over Kevin Warsh's nomination as Trump's pick for next Fed chair appears to be over.

Moments ago, Warsh won the backing of the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday in a 13-11 party-line vote, putting him on track to be confirmed by the full Senate before Jerome Powell’s term ends May 15, Bloomberg reproted. 

Warsh’s nomination had been held up by Republican Senator Thom Tillis until the Department of Justice agreed last week to drop (for now) a criminal probe into cost overruns in a renovation of the Fed’s Washington headquarters. Tillis, who saw the probe as “bogus” and a threat to the Fed’s independence on monetary policy, said in an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he received assurances the department wouldn’t reopen the case unless the Fed’s inspector general, who is also reviewing the project, sends a criminal referral.

As expected, Democrats weren’t won over: Senator Elizabeth Warren warned that Trump is still intent on controlling the Fed; Democrats have also demanded an end to a legal pursuit of Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

“The stink of stagflation is in the air,” Warren said. She said confirmation of Warsh would help Trump dominate the Fed’s monetary policy. “Trump has not been subtle about his takeover,” she said.

The vote makes real the prospect of a Warsh-led Fed that promises the biggest shake up of the US central bank in years. Having raised the prospect of “regime change” as part of his bid to win Trump’s nomination, Warsh has promised to shrink the Fed’s $6.7 trillion balance sheet, establish a new framework for managing inflation and change how the central bank communicates with the public. He has, however, offered few details on how he might pursue each of these goals.

Warsh is almost certain to face heavy pressure from Trump over monetary policy. In a CNBC interview on April 21, the president said he’d be disappointed if Warsh didn’t cut rates as soon as he took office.

Meanwhile, Warsh has vowed to protect the Fed’s independence. In his hearing last week Warsh blamed the Fed for allowing inflation to surge following the Covid-19 pandemic. While he said high prices remain a problem for Americans, he also floated the idea of a new framework for dealing with persistent inflation, though didn’t offer specifics. He also steered clear of committing to a near-term path for interest rates and suggested Fed officials have made a habit of providing financial markets with too much guidance on where policy is headed.

The combination of Warsh’s calls for a smaller balance sheet, new ways to think about inflation and communication changes put Warsh in the spotlight to explain how he’ll defend the Fed’s independence, said EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco.

“Taken together, this points to a more centralized, less transparent and potentially more politically-exposed policy framework,” he said.

Earlier, Warsh and his wife, Jane Lauder, reported assets worth at least $192 million in financial disclosures filed as part of his nomination.  But his total net worth is likely much larger and makes him one of the wealthiest Fed officials in the central bank’s history. Bloomberg has estimated his wife’s net worth at $2.5 billion, many of which are market-dependent. Democratic lawmakers called for more scrutiny of Warsh’s assets, while Warsh has promised to quickly divest from certain funds for which he hasn’t disclosed the underlying assets, citing confidentiality agreements.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 10:23

Max Pressure: U.S. Prepares For Extended Hormuz Blockade As Treasury Warns Sanction Risks Linked To China's "Teapot" Refineries

The U.S. is intensifying pressure on Iran and China across two fronts.

First, on the military side, The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump told top aides to prepare for an extended U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would strangle Tehran's oil revenue.

Second, on the economic side, the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control is warning financial institutions about sanctions exposure related to Chinese independent "teapot" refineries, particularly in Shandong Province, due to their continued purchases and refining of Iranian crude.

Taken together, the message from President Trump to Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent is very clear: Washington is squeezing Iran's oil revenue at both ends of the supply chain, through a continued blockade of the Hormuz chokepoint that enables exports and the Chinese refining network.

"China purchases approximately 90 percent of Iran's oil exports, with teapot refineries accounting for the majority of these imports. This revenue ultimately benefits the Iranian regime, its weapons programs, and its military," Treasury explained in a press release, adding, "Some Chinese teapot refineries have used the U.S. financial system to conduct dollar-denominated transactions and procure U.S. goods."

What OFAC is doing is urging banks to tighten controls, conduct enhanced due diligence on transactions involving China-based refineries, and communicate sanctions expectations to correspondent banks.

Treasury also imposed sanctions on 35 entities and individuals for their roles in Iran's shadow banking sector.

The reason the Treasury singled out Shandong Province is that the area in China is a core hub for China's independent refineries.

Efforts to end the US-Iran war, now entering the third month, have morphed from an air campaign against Tehran to an economic war with hopes that the Trump administration can economically squeeze Tehran into a favorable peace deal that includes winding down its nuclear program.

"Iran's shadow banking system serves as a critical financial lifeline for its armed forces, enabling activities that disrupt global trade and fuel violence across the Middle East," Bessent said in a statement, quoted by Reuters.

"Illicit funds funneled through this network support the regime's ongoing terrorist operations, posing a direct threat to U.S. personnel, regional allies, and the global economy," Bessent said, adding any institution that facilitated or engaged with these networks was at risk of "severe consequences."

OFAC has already imposed about 1,000 sanctions on Iran-related individuals, ships, and aircraft as part of a campaign to exert maximum economic pressure on Iran's shadow banking.

Brett Erickson, managing principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors, told Reuters that the Trump administration should go after Chinese banks that have supported Tehran.

"Washington keeps talking about waging a maximum pressure campaign, but it is still avoiding the one move that would actually matter," Erickson said. "If you are not willing to target the Chinese banks propping up the regime in Tehran, you are not going for the jugular, you are running a charade."

The U.S. economic pressure campaign on Tehran, as well as China, comes as Trump travels to Beijing next month to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 10:05

Bank of Canada Keeps Rates On Hold As It "Looks Through War's Immediate Impact On Inflation"

As expected, the Bank of Canada - which was the day's first G5 central bank to hit the tape ahead of the Fed's decision at 2pm ET - held interest rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected, saying adjustments to borrowing costs would likely be small if the economy and inflation evolve as expected, while stating that it is looking through the war's immediate impact on inflation but will not let higher energy prices become persistent inflation.

“A policy rate close to current settings looks appropriate to support adjustment in the economy and return inflation to target,” BOC Governor Tif Macklem said adding that “There may still be a need to adjust the policy rate depending on how the risks evolve. But if the economy evolves broadly in line with the base case, changes in the policy rate can expected to be small."

At the same time, officials flagged major risks to their outlook, including a review of the North American trade deal, the conflict in the Middle East and ongoing damage from the impacts of US tariffs, which could all require different responses for monetary policy.

Macklem explicitly outlined how officials may have to adjust borrowing costs more significantly in some scenarios. He noted that while additional US trade restrictions could prompt cuts to the policy rate, rising and persistently elevated energy prices would lead to tightening.

“If oil prices continue to increase, and particularly if they remain elevated, the risk that higher energy prices become generalized inflation increases,” Macklem said. “If this starts to happen, monetary policy will have more work to do — there may be a need for consecutive increases in the policy rate.”

Macklem said Canada is being buffeted by global events and geopolitical uncertainties, higher global energy prices are pushing inflation up, and monetary policy is focused on ensuring jump in energy prices does not turn into persistent inflation

The governor said the BOC has three key messages:

1. Canada is being buffeted by global events and geopolitical uncertainties, but our economy is growing and is expected to continue to grow.
2. After more than a year with inflation close to the 2% target, higher global energy prices are pushing inflation up. The surge in gasoline prices combined with still-elevated food price inflation is squeezing more Canadians.
3. Monetary policy is focused on ensuring the jump in energy prices does not turn into persistent inflation, while helping the economy adjust to global headwinds. We are committed to keeping inflation low and stable overtime.

Middle East

• Since previous forecast in January, the war in the Middle East has sent global energy prices sharply higher, increased financial market volatility and disrupted shipping for fertilizer and other commodities. This has lowered the outlook for global growth while boosting inflation.

Growth 

• Growth looks to have resumed after contracting at the end of 2025. Consumer and government spending are contributing to growth, while US tariffs and trade uncertainty are weighing on exports and business investment.
• The conflict in the Middle East will affect the composition of growth, but the impact on overall growth is expected to be small because higher global oil prices increase the value of our energy exports even as they squeeze consumers and many businesses.

Policy

• Our baseline forecast assumes oil prices will come down and US tariffs will remain at the current levels. If this holds true, a policy rate close to current settings looks appropriate to support adjustment in the economy and return inflation to target.
• There may still be a need to adjust the policy rate depending on how the risks evolve. But if the economy evolves broadly in line with the base case, changes in the policy rate can be expected to be small.
• However, uncertainty is unusually elevated, and there are many possible outcomes. Monetary policy may need to be nimble.

Outlook

• We are closely monitoring the impact of the conflict in the Middle East and how the economy is responding to US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty.
• Governing Council is looking through the war's immediate impact on inflation but will not let higher energy prices become persistent inflation.
• As the outlook evolves, we stand ready to respond as needed.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining Canadians’ confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.

“While the war in Iran may alter its composition, overall GDP growth is little changed in the updated forecast,” the bank said. “Since Canada is a large net exporter of oil, higher oil prices increase national income even as consumers are squeezed by higher gasoline prices.” Previously, the bank said it could not predict the length and scale of the Iran conflict, calling the economic impact “highly uncertain.”

The monetary policy report notes that its projections for inflation and growth are highly conditional on the assumption that US tariffs remain unchanged and that oil prices gradually decline to $75 per barrel by mid-2027.

Both the Iran war and US trade policy pose both upside and downside risks to inflation, the bank said. While a prolonged conflict in Middle East could stoke inflation further, it could also have a more negative impact on global growth.

The bank also warned that businesses could face more costs adjusting to US tariffs, which would risk fueling inflation. But tariffs could also weigh on demand by more than expected and a review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement scheduled for July 1 could yield an outcome that is worse than assumed, dragging on growth and inflation.

The bank left its estimate of the neutral rate — the level of borrowing costs that neither restrict nor stimulate economic growth — between 2.25% and 3.25%.

In kneejerk reaction,the USDCAD rose from 1.3692 to 1.3710 as the BOC acknowledged that it will look through the war's immediate impact on inflation. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 10:00

JetBlue Plans 30-40% "Fuel Recapture" Fare Hikes, Capacity Cuts To Cover Rising Costs

Thanks to the war in Iran, JetBlue Airlines is passing the cost along to us - announcing during Q1 earnings on Tuesday that while the airline had strong revenue performance, prices are going up due to rising fuel costs. 

A JetBlue Embraer 190 taxis on the tarmac at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Va., on June 29, 2021. Daniel Slim/AFP via Getty Images

"While the macro environment, particularly fuel, has become more volatile, we are taking decisive actions to manage what is within our control, including adjusting capacity, optimizing revenue, and maintaining disciplined cost control," said CEO Joanna Geraghty. 

"At the same time, we are seeing clear evidence that JetForward is on track and working, and we remain confident it is the right plan to transform our business and get us closer to our financial priorities."

As the Epoch Times notes further, JetForward is the airline’s turnaround strategy introduced in 2024, concentrating flights between the Northeast and leisure destinations such as Florida and the Caribbean.

This announcement follows last month’s notice that the airline would increase checked baggage fees by at least $10.

Going forward, JetBlue named specific actions it will take to deal with increased fuel costs, including 30 percent to 40 percent “fuel recapture” pricing during the second quarter, rising to 100 percent by early 2027. Using this strategy, the airline plans to offset the escalating costs by recovering those expenses through higher ticket prices, fees, and other adjustments.

The airline also intends to cut its flight capacity, with the reductions focused on off-peak travel periods, and implement additional cost-saving measures.

It revealed that the average fuel price during the first quarter was $2.96 per gallon—an increase of $0.39 per gallon year over year, or a 15.2 percent increase. Its first quarter 2026 system capacity also decreased by 1.7 percent year over year.

Still, the company’s operating revenue increased by 4.7 percent year over year to $2.2 billion during the first quarter, while its operating revenue per available seat mile grew 6.5 percent year over year.

The airline’s operating expense per available seat mile also increased during the first quarter by 8.3 percent year over year.

As a result, the company reported a net loss of $319 million, or $0.86 per share, for the quarter, compared with a loss of $208 million, or $0.59 per share, in the first quarter of 2025.

Some positive highlights of the first quarter include $500 million in committed aircraft financing, with the option of increasing that by an additional $250 million, and the repayment of $325 million of 2021 convertible notes. JetBlue ended the first quarter with $2.4 billion in liquidity.

“As we look ahead, we are seeing continued strength across the booking curve, with momentum carrying into the second quarter supporting our unit revenue outlook,” JetBlue’s president, Marty St. George, said in the report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 09:50

Core Durables Goods Surge For 12th Straight Month, Push Bond Yield Higher

After a recent string of 'soft' survey data, this morning we get some 'hard' data and it was far stronger than expected.

Preliminary headline durable goods orders for March rose 0.8% MoM (better than the 0.5% MoM exp), and the first increase after a three month decline to start the year (which was the first 3-month decline since Nov 2019).

The increase took place despite continued weakness in aircraft orders manifesting as a 21.1% drop in nondefense aircraft and parts in March. 

Meanwhile, core durable goods orders (prelim for March ) rose even more, up by 0.9% MoM (and stronger than the 0.4% expected.

That was 12 straight months of gains, pulling core orders up 7.62% YoY - the most since July 2022.

Bookings for non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a proxy for investment in equipment, surged by 3.3% MoM after an upward revised 1.6% increase a month earlier.

Finally, shipments figures (which plug into GDP) were also comfortably stronger than expected (+1.2% in March versus +0.6% forecast), which suggests upside risks to Q1 forecasts.

It remains to be seen, however, how the war impacted demand for capital goods. 

Bond yields rose after the better-than-expected housing and capital goods data. The war is an ongoing risk that can belatedly sour hard economic data, but soft data is more up to date. On that front, we have yet to see the manufacturing ISM turn down. As Bloomberg's Simon White notes (in the chart below) the ISM leads durable goods new orders by about three months.

Meanwhile, as reported earlier, housing data for March also held up well, largely thanks to housing starts, driven by one-unit structures, even as multi-unit ones fall. Building permits, on the other hand, were ugly, but that is a very forward looking leading indicator, and was likely driven by the spike in rates. 

The US economy is overall in remarkably good shape given the age of the cycle. That should keep yields supported. However, the longer energy prices remain elevated, that will become more in question.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 09:43

O-I Glass Plunges As Gulf Energy Shock Hits Earnings Outlook

Glass bottle and jar company O-I Glass plunged the most in premarket trading in more than six years after it slashed its full-year adjusted EPS outlook, blaming higher energy costs tied to the Gulf-related energy shock.

The major glass-container manufacturer, producing bottles and jars for the beer, wine, spirits, beverage, and food-packaging markets, now expects adjusted EPS of $1.00 to $1.50, down sharply from its prior forecast of $1.65 to $1.90 and well below the $1.67 Bloomberg Consensus estimate. 

Slide 8 detailed O-I Glass' Full Year 2026 Outlook impacted by the energy shock in the Middle East:

The chart on the right is O-I Glass reassuring investors that it has hedged or mitigated a large portion of its European natural gas exposure. It says 75% to 80% of its 2026 year-to-go EU natural gas exposure is covered at rates better than current index prices, and more than 50% is already mitigated for 2027.

First-quarter results were also weak (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Adjusted EPS 5c vs. 40c y/y, estimate 11c

• Net sales $1.54 billion, -1.7% y/y, estimate $1.47 billion

• Americas net sales $871 million, -0.2% y/y, estimate $826.3 million

• Europe net sales $655 million, -1.8% y/y

• Americas oper. profit $142 million, +0.7% y/y

• Europe operating profit $0 vs. $68 million y/y

From early February through Tuesday’s close, O-I Glass shares had already fallen roughly 40% as investors priced in the Gulf energy shock now working its way through the company’s cost structure. Shares are down another roughly 18% in premarket trading. If losses hold, it would mark the stock’s largest one-day drop since March 9, 2020. 

O-I Glass' deteriorating outlook highlights how quickly the energy shock spread worldwide (read Goldman). 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 09:35

Housing Starts Surge To Highest Since 2024 As Permits Unexpectedly Crater

With mortgage rates still relatively low, despite a recent jump in interest rates, and a top-down push for affordability, Housing Starts for March soared while the more forward-looking Building Permits disappointed, unexpectedly plunged.

Housing starts soared 10.8% MoM in March (far more than the -0.4% expected drop) while Permits plunged 10.8% MoM (and worse than the -0.4% decline expected)...

This pushed the SAAR totals for Starts to 1.502 million, far above the 1.390 million expected, and the highest since Dec 2024, but Building Permits fell to their lowest since Aug 2025

Under the hood, Single-Family Starts jumped 9.7%, the most since Feb 2025, and Multi-Family Starts soared 9.6% MoM, while Permits did a mirror image, plunging 23.5% MoM (biggest drop since June 2023) and Single-Family permits plunged 3.8%

The lowest mortgage rate since Aug 2022 (aside for the modest Iran war jump) likely helped spark homebuilder appetite to start building, even if it did precisely the reverse with permits. 

Overall, the report was a mixed bag overall, and tough to project given the impact of surging oil which translated into even higher yields on the mortgage rates for the foreseeable future. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 09:09

Wingstop Tumbles As Chicken Demand Falters, Guidance Cut

Wingstop shares fell the most in six months in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year outlook and reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter sales, citing a pullback in traffic as management pointed to "continued pressure on consumer spending."

The chicken chain, with 2,653 locations across the US, now expects 2026 domestic same-store sales to decline at a low single-digit rate, down from its prior forecast of flat to low single-digit growth. Analysts tracked by Bloomberg forecast a .4% contraction this year, after lowering their forecast from about 1.3% in mid-February when Wingstop last reported earnings.

First-quarter domestic same-store sales fell 8.7%, exceeding the 5.4% decline expected by analysts. Adjusted EPS of $1.18 topped estimates, helped by lower-than-expected costs, including chicken wing costs.

Here's a snapshot of first-quarter results (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Total domestic stores comp sales growth -8.7%, estimate -5.43% (Bloomberg Consensus)

Adjusted EPS $1.18 vs. 99c y/y, estimate $1.03

Revenue $183.7 million, +7.4% y/y, estimate $188.4 million

Adjusted Ebitda $65.4 million, +9.9% y/y, estimate $63.4 million

Total location count 3,153, +3.2% q/q, estimate 3,154

• Domestic franchise restaurants 2,596, +15% y/y, estimate 2,599 
• International franchise restaurants 500, +29% y/y, estimate 497

Cost of sales $24.7 million, +8.2% y/y, estimate $26.1 millions

SG&A expense $34.4 million, +9.6% y/y, estimate $35.7 million

Net addition of stores 97, -23% y/y, estimate 90

Important to note: Wingstop's core customer base appears to skew younger, making it highly exposed to lower-income consumer pressures, such as the national average gasoline price topping $4 per gallon.

Wingstop bust-cycle... 

We have highlighted what has happened in convenience stores and gas stations when gas topped the politically sensitive line of $4 last month.

Read:

• Here's What Happened Inside Gas Stations When Gas Hit $4

• Here's What Happened Inside Convenience Stores When Gas Hit $4

Related:

• Goldman: Fast Food's 'Bang For The Buck' Gains As Casual Dining Appeal Craters

Perhaps Wingstop needs to run promotions or offer 'BNPL' loans for their chicken orders to bring back younger customers.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 09:02

US Gas Prices Hit Highest Level In 4 Years, Analyst Says

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The average price for a gallon of gasoline hit its highest level in four years on Tuesday as the cost of a barrel of oil remains elevated amid the conflict with Iran, according to a prominent analyst.

Customers pump gas at a gas station in Miami on April 13, 2026. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The national average price for a gallon of gas was $4.17, “the highest level since 2022,” and surpassed the $4.16 price reported earlier this month, said GasBuddy analyst Patrick de Haan in an X post on April 28.

“We’ll continue to head higher for now,” he added.

The American Automobile Association (AAA) also said the price for a gallon of regular gas reached just above $4.17, showing a 6-cent increase from Monday.

The price of gas and oil surged after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, prompting the country to respond by attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz and launching its own strikes on neighboring countries in the Middle East.

Diesel was significantly higher on Tuesday, with AAA showing the price for a gallon at $5.46, an increase of 2 cents over Monday’s average.

According to an AAA report in March, the nationwide average price for a gallon of gas stood at around $2.98 on Feb. 26, two days before the U.S. military launched the strikes.

A federal Energy Information Administration (EIA) graph shows that gas prices reached $4.21 per gallon in April 2022, several weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Prices may have been impacted by the United Arab Emirates’ announcement on Tuesday that the oil-rich country was quitting the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), dealing a blow to the oil producers’ group. The exit of the UAE weakens ‌OPEC’s control over global oil supplies and will widen a rift between the UAE and neighboring Saudi Arabia.

UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei told Reuters in ​a telephone interview that the decision was taken after examining the country’s energy strategies. He said the UAE had not discussed the issue with any other country.

“This ​is a policy decision, it has been done after a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production,” ⁠al-Mazrouei said.

OPEC Gulf producers have been struggling to ship exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes, due to Iranian threats and attacks on vessels. The Trump administration has pushed for Iran to reopen the strait while maintaining a U.S. naval blockade on Iran’s ports.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday provided an update on the U.S.–Iran conflict, writing in a Truth Social post that Iran informed the administration that it is in a “state of collapse” and wants to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He did not provide other details.

Earlier on April 28, an Iranian military official told the semi-official IRNA news agency that Tehran considers itself still at war with the United States amid the blockade and ceasefire.

Trump and administration officials have said that gas prices will likely go down after the war ends. “I think they'll be much lower. Before midterms? Much lower,” he told Fox Business in mid-April.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 08:45

Futures Flat Ahead Of Fed, Mag 7 Earnings Avalanche

S&P futures are flat with Nasdaq outperforming ahead of a huge day for tech. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft, representing nearly 20% of S&P market cap, report after the close, with traders focused on capex. The group has a combined options implied move of more than $750 billion of market cap in either direction. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are unchanged; Nasdaq futures rise 0.3% amid dip buying following strong results from Seagate, after the index slipped more than 1% in the previous session, and the sector outperformed in Europe and Asia. In premarket trading, semis are again seeing a strong bid post-earnings, Mag7 names are flat to down, Cyclicals are leading Defensives driven by Energy / Industrials / Materials. Treasury yields rose along with the dollar ahead of the Fed’s latest interest-rate announcement at what is likely Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair and where the Fed will keep rates unchanged. WTI crude rose $103  while Brent jumped above $114 a barrel - approaching the highest since the start of the Iran war - after the US signaled it would stick with a naval blockade of Iranian ports, leaving the Strait of Hormuz impassable. The key overnight news came from Trump’s threat of extending the US blockade, which is boosting oil, pushing Brent to the highest in a month, but for now Equities are blissfully interpreting this as an “escalate to de-escalate” situation. Bond yields are near session highs, above 4.36% ahead of today's Fed decision with no changes expected in an 11-1 vote, though there will likely be multiple questions probing Powell’s intent to leave the Board or to finishing his term which runs into 2028, or perhaps stay on until all investigations are concluded. US economic data calendar slate includes March readings for wholesale inventories, durable goods and housing starts are due at 8:30 a.m. ET. FOMC rate decision is at 2 p.m., followed by a press conference at 2.30 p.m. Bank of Canada rate decision is due at 9:45 a.m.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Alphabet -0.5%, Amazon -0.1%, Apple -0.7%, Nvidia +0.4%, Meta -0.1%, Microsoft -0.6%, Tesla +0.2%

• Bloom Energy (BE) jumps 20% after the fuel cell maker boosted its revenue guidance for the full year, beating Wall Street guidance expectations.
• Booking Holdings (BKNG) falls 3% after the online travel agent said the Middle East conflict impacted its first-quarter results to varying degrees. Its second-quarter and full-year forecasts missed estimates.
• Brown-Forman (BF/B) falls 5% after the alcoholic beverage maker and Pernod Ricard agreed to terminate discussions regarding a potential business combination.
• Humana (HUM) slips 1% after the health insurer reaffirmed its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year, even as its first-quarter profit came ahead of expectations.
• KalVista Pharmaceuticals (KALV) shares are halted after Chiesi Farmaceutici SpA agreed to acquire the US-listed company for about $1.9 billion, expanding the Italian company’s rare immunology portfolio.
• NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) jumps 18% after the chipmaker reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a second-quarter forecast that is above the analyst consensus.
• O-I Glass (OI) sinks 21% after the glass bottle maker cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year, citing higher global energy costs as a result of the conflict in the Middle East.
• Robinhood (HOOD) falls 10% after the firm said expenses jumped 18% in the first quarter and warned that its “Trump account” push would require an additional $100 million investment.
• Rush Street (RSI) surges 17% after the gaming company reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate and raised its outlook for the full year.
• Seagate Technology (STX) rises 17% after the computer hardware and storage company gave a fourth-quarter forecast that was much stronger than expected. It also reported third-quarter results that beat expectations, fueled by AI-related demand.
• Starbucks (SBUX) climbs 4% after reporting better-than-expected quarterly results and saying it now sees comparable sales rising at least 5% this year, up from its previous view of 3% or more.
• Teradyne (TER) falls 6% after the semiconductor manufacturing company gave an outlook that wasn’t seen as strong enough to justify the stock’s recent strength.
• Visa (V) rises 5% after the credit card company reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share and net revenue that both topped average analyst estimates.
• Vita Coco (COCO) climbs 15% after after the beverage firm boosted its net sales guidance for the full year.

In deals, Jack Daniel’s owner Brown-Forman and Jameson whiskey maker Pernod Ricard terminated their merger talks, marking an abrupt end to a potential deal. Finland’s Kone agreed to acquire TK Elevator for €29.4 billion ($34.4 billion) including debt, in what will be one of Europe’s biggest-ever PE exits.

There’s a relentless few days ahead, with companies representing around 42% of the S&P 500’s market cap reporting this week. A lot of that is due to the four hypercalers coming after the close, which represent more than 15% of the index’s value. “I can’t remember a time where you had this many names in one shot,” said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at Jonestrading. “It’s going to be hectic.”

The results will have widespread implications for a market that’s largely looked past the impact of war in the Middle East and ridden the AI trade to new highs. Comments on capex will be crucial for chipmakers and memory storage stocks on a record run. Strong results from Seagate Technology Holdings Plc and NXP Semiconductors NV, manufacturers of memory and analog chips, respectively, fueled Wednesday’s US rebound. Both stocks surged around 18% in premarket trading and lifted peers. The Magnificent Seven were weaker for the most part.

“Buy-the-dip has been a profitable trade for some time now,” said Roger Lee, head of equity strategy at Cavendish. “Any new news around the monetization of the AI capex already invested will be key, and what level of incremental capex is required in the AI arms race.”

“US companies are really good at quarterly earnings. They understand how to under-promise and over-deliver,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. “The absence of bad news elsewhere, the still-powerful competitive positions of the Mag7 and their own powerful earnings forecast profile may be emboldening bulls to take a view ahead of their earnings.”

It’s also Fed day. The central bank is poised to hold its benchmark rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Investors will be looking for clues about how long the Fed is willing to maintain its patient posture, as well as what Powell says about his future, in what’s likely to be his final press conference as Fed chair. Traders in the Treasury options market are bracing for long-dated bond yields to surge past 5% as a rally in oil prices continues. A jump in energy prices has raised the possibility of stronger inflation and weaker economic growth, leaving markets to look out for tweaks to policymakers’ March statement.

The “base case is that the Fed will wait until June for meaningful changes in guidance, but the risk is that communications skew hawkish,” wrote Jim Reid, head of macro research and thematic strategy at Deutsche Bank.

In politics, key congressional Republicans are poised to break with Trump on his proposed 44% budget raise for the Pentagon in a rare act of defiance. Trump and Xi Jinping are headed toward a summit next month with a shared desire to stabilize ties, as tensions rise over Iranian oil and AI. A Bloomberg Economics analysis found that around 4% of US GDP is derived from industries that use rare earths.

Higher energy prices are exerting some pressure on European stocks, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.2% in what has been a busy morning of earnings reports. UBS jumped after traders helped drive profit in the first quarter, while Deutsche Bank shares dropped after the lender increased its credit provisions for commercial real estate. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• UBS shares advance as much as 5.9% after the Swiss lender reported what analysts say was a strong set of results. With an earnings beat driven by the investment bank, the lender also signaled it could expand an existing $3b buyback
• Adidas shares soar as much as 8.3%, supported by 1Q revenue and operating profit beat that offered encouraging start to the year, with analysts waiting for details how events such as the soccer World Cup can contribute to sales growth
• Glanbia shares rally as much as 12% on the Irish stock exchange, hitting a record high, after the food and nutritional products company said it expects adjusted EPS growth this year to hit the high-end of its guided range
• Nexi shares gain as much as 7.8%, the most in more than a year, after the Financial Times reported that CVC is weighing a €9 billion bid to take the payment services provider private
• Amundi shares rise as much as 6.5% as the investment manager’s first-quarter earnings, assets under management and flows prove better than expected
• Fuchs shares rise as much as 10%, the most since October, after the German specialty chemicals company raised its sales guidance to reflect its intention to hike prices to offset raw material inflation caused by the conflict in the Middle East
• Airbus shares advance as much as 3.5% despite the planemaker missing analyst expectations on adjusted Ebit and free cash flow in the first quarter, alongside a low handover rate for deliveries
• Kambi gains as much as 22% after the Swedish sports betting company reported its latest earnings. Jefferies says the report shows progress across revenues and Ebita “despite customer migration and regulatory headwinds”
• GSK shares drop as much as 3.5%, underperforming the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index, after the British drugmaker reported results for the first quarter which Intron Health analysts said were “mixed”
• Deutsche Bank shares drop as much as 3.6% after the German lender reported what analysts say are mixed results, with Morgan Stanley analyst pointing to capital miss and provisions as the key negatives
• AstraZeneca falls despite reporting better-than-expected sales and earnings for the first quarter, with Hargreaves Lansdown noting the results probably won’t provide a major catalyst for the stock
• Iberdrola shares fall as much as 2.2% after the Spanish power company reported net income for the first quarter that matched the average analyst estimate. Analysts at Morgan Stanley note quality of earnings concerns
• Hexatronic falls as much as 17%, the most since July, after the Swedish maker of fiber-optic cables reported that sales  fell more than some analyhsts forecast

Asian stocks fluctuate as traders await a series of upcoming central bank rate decisions in major economies, along with earnings from big artificial intelligence players. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index swung between a gain of as much as 0.3% and a drop of up to 0.5%. Key stock benchmarks in South Korea, Hong Kong, India and mainland China rose, while Australia’s declined. Japan’s markets are shut for a public holiday. Elsewhere in the region, Victory Giant Technology Huizhou Co., a supplier to Nvidia Corp., rose after reporting a 28% year-on-year increase in its first-quarter sales, driven by stronger demand for printed circuit boards used in AI servers. Other tech earnings in focus include Luxshare Precision and Foxconn Industrial.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index is up around 0.1%. The Aussie dollar is near the bottom of the G-10 leaderboard after core inflation metrics fell short of expectations.

In rates, global bonds are mostly lower, with US yields up around 1bps across the curve. Treasury yields are 1bp-1.5bp higher on the day with curve spread little changed; 10-year is near 4.36%. German and UK front-end yields are 3bp-4bp higher following German regional CPI data, with national print at 8am coming at 2.9%,  below the 3.1% expected.  Wednesday’s US session features Fed rate decision, likely the last of Chair Powell’s tenure, and news conference at 2pm and 2:30pm respectively. No change is expected, leaving investors focused on any comments about the impact of energy prices and supply-chain disruptions on inflation. Into the Fed policy decision, there has been a wave of flows in Treasury options targeting an increase in long-end yields to 5% or higher; front-end swaps price in just 3bp of easing by year end

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are up more than 3% at highest level since April 13; Brent crude futures briefly made their way back above $115 amid concern over a prolonged blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and US President Trump telling Iran it “better get smart soon.”  Spot gold and silver are showing respective losses of 0.6% and 0.1%. Bitcoin adds 1.6%. 

US economic data calendar slate includes March housing starts and trade balance and March preliminary durable goods orders and wholesale inventories (8:30am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini little changed
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
• DAX -0.1%, CAC 40 -0.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.36%
• VIX +0.1 points at 17.97
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1198.89
• euro little changed at $1.1703
• WTI crude +3.5% at $103.42/barrel

Top Overnight News

• President Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, U.S. officials said, targeting the regime’s coffers in a high-risk bid to compel a nuclear capitulation Tehran has long refused. WSJ
• War has imposed a heavy cost on Iran’s economy: more than a million people out of work, soaring food prices and a prolonged internet shutdown that has slammed online businesses. The question is how much more pain Iran’s leaders are willing to tolerate as they try to negotiate a favorable end to the war. WSJ
• The Fed’s widely expected to hold rates today, probably Jerome Powell’s final decision as chair. Instead, uncertainty over the outlook and his own future will dominate. BBG
• The UAE’s shock decision to quit OPEC blindsided its partners and will weaken the cartel’s grip on prices. Once oil starts flowing again, the move may set the stage for future price wars. BBG
• US gasoline inventories slumped by 8.5 million barrels last week, a month before driving season, the API is said to have reported. That would be the 11th straight decline and cut holdings to the lowest since November if confirmed by the EIA. BBG
• Demand for Huawei's Ascend 950 AI chips has surged following the release of DeepSeek's V4 artificial intelligence model that runs on the Shenzhen-based tech firm's chips, with major Chinese internet firms rushing to secure orders. China's biggest internet firms including ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba are reaching ‌out to Huawei about new chip orders, said the sources, who are familiar with the procurement discussions. RTRS
• China is poised to resume exporting jet fuel, gasoline and diesel from May, in a move that could significantly ease the worldwide shortages caused by the Iran conflict. FT
• The U.S. Department of Commerce last week ordered multiple chip equipment companies to halt certain tool shipments to China's second-largest chipmaker, Hua Hong, its latest action to slow the country's development of advanced chips, according to ‌two people familiar with the matter. RTRS
• Australian consumer prices surged in the first quarter as war in the Middle East drove up energy costs, while core inflation stayed uncomfortably high for policymakers, keeping pressure on for a rate hike next week. RTRS
• Republicans are exploring cutting capital gains taxes to appeal to voters ahead of midterms. A proposal to index gains for inflation may feature in a tax package later this year, though passage before November looks unlikely. BBG
• KPMG has closed its US government audit practice following the loss of an army contract: FT
• US President Trump's budget office sent a memo urging House Republicans to agree to partly reopen DHS, even without new cash for immigration enforcement: CNN 
• The White House is developing guidance to allow agencies to get around Anthropic's supply chain risk designation and onboard Mythos: Axios 
• US Senate votes 51-47 to block Cuba military action resolution.

Iran News

• US President Trump tells officials to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, WSJ reported citing sources; Trump has opted to continue squeezing Iran's economy, as other options would carry more risk than maintaining the blockade.
• US President Trump posted "Iran can’t get their act together. They don’t know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon! President DJT". Post also includes an image of President Trump holding a rifle, with explosions behind him; caption reads "NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!".
• US President Trump said we are doing very well in the Middle East, King Charles agrees that Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb.
• Iran's Vice Chairman of the National Security Council Boroujerdi said, on negotiations, that Ghalibaf "personally manages" them.
• Iran has pushed back on statements from the US regarding pipeline explosions, ISNA reports.
• Senior Pakistani official said mediation continues, working to narrow the gap between the US and Iran.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US Treasury has targeted Iran's financial infrastructure, disrupting tens of billions of dollars in Iranian revenue; Kharg Island is approaching maximum storage capacity, forcing Iran to reduce oil production.
• The Israeli army carries out a massive bombing operation east of Gaza City.
• IRGC said that new means of power ready against any new US attack, Press TV reported.
• Israel's Hayom newspaper estimates that Israel may accept a limited ceasefire with Lebanon, with the stipulation of the disbandment of Hezbollah, Al Hadath reported.
• An Israeli army commander said that we are not talking about destroying terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon, but rather destroying everything, according to Haaretz.
• A political aide to the IRGC said that we will respond to any new aggression with surprises and new capabilities, will burn America's giant ships at sea if they miscalculate again, Al Jazeera Mubasher reported.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said Japan will engage with Iran for safe passage of ships.
• US Treasury has frozen USD 344mln in crypto linked to Iran, according to Fox Business citing officials.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks initially opened with a slight negative bias, amid the tech-led selloff stateside and the lack of progress between US and Iran. Sentiment improved throughout the APAC session, despite light newsflow. ASX 200 underperformed, with Health Care and Miners weighing on the index. Woodside Energy reported Q1 revenue that rose annually and maintained its FY guidance, helping support shares just shy of 2% gains. KOSPI reversed earlier losses, as the index shrugged off the tech-led selloff in US equities. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. outperformed, following a flurry of earnings and updates. For BYD, the Co. reported revenue that beat estimates, however net income fell annually. On the other hand, Hua Hong Semiconductor slipped after the US reportedly ordered numerous chip equipment companies to halt tool shipments to two of the co.’s facilities

Top Asian News

• Australian Quarterly Inflation Rate QoQ (Q1) Q/Q 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 0.6%, Low. 1.1%, High. 1.6%).
• Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY (Mar) Y/Y 3.5% (Prev. 3.5%).
• Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Mar) Y/Y 3.3% (Prev. 3.3%).
• Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI MoM (Mar) M/M 0.8% (Prev. 0.2%).
• Australian Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ (Q1) Q/Q 0.8% (Prev. 0.9%).
• Australian Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Q1) Y/Y 3.5% (Prev. 3.4%).
• Australian Quarterly Inflation Rate YoY (Q1) Y/Y 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 3.6%).
• Australian Inflation Rate MoM (Mar) M/M 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 0.0%, Low. 0.9%, High. 1.6%).
• Australian Inflation Rate YoY (Mar) Y/Y 4.6% vs. Exp. 4.7% (Prev. 3.7%).

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.4%) began the session on a weaker footing as geopolitical headlines dictate the tape with WSJ reporting "Trump told officials to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran" and the US President posting this morning, "Iran can’t get their act together. They don’t know how to sign a non-nuclear deal. They better get smart soon! President DJT". European sectors opened mixed, though they now show a negative bias as the index dipped lower. Energy tops the pile, and Tech also does well after NXP Semi's Q1 beat-and-raise after hours; Insurance and Retail lag. In terms of key movers: Adidas (+7%, Strong Q1, raised guidance) and UBS (+4%, NII, Top and bottom line beat, share buyback).

Top European News

• NIESR lowers the UK's 2026 growth forecast to 0.9% (prev. 1.4%) and raises its inflation forecast to 4.7% (prev. 3.3%) at the start of 2027; the BoE may have to respond with big rate hikes if energy disruption is prolonged. The UK would face recession and inflation of 5% in a more adverse scenario in which oil prices spike to around USD 140/bbl and Hormuz remains closed. The Middle East shock will also worsen the UK’s public finances. Relative to the OBR's outlook, debt-servicing costs are likely to be higher, growth weaker, and pressure greater for additional support to compensate vulnerable households.
• UK Chancellor Reeves said the Government needs to make targeted interventions that will not have a lasting impact on interest rates.
• AstraZeneca (AZN LN) Q1 2026 (USD): Revenue 15.3bln (exp. 14.9bln), adj. EPS 2.58 (exp. 2.55). Confirms guidance for FY26. "...remain on track to achieve our ambition for 2030 and beyond.".
• GSK (GSK LN) Q1 2026 (GBP) Adj. EPS 46.5p (exp. 43.2p), Turnover 7.63bln (prev. 7.51bln Y/Y), Gross Profit 1.87bln (prev. 1.93bln Y/Y); reaffirms 2026 guidance.
• Santander (SAN SM) - Q1 2026 (EUR): NII 5.46bln (exp. 4.97bln), EPS 0.36 (exp. 0.26), Total income 15.1bln (exp. 15bln), Net income 5.5bln (exp. 5.0bln), reaffirms 2026-28 targets. Net Loan provisions 3.23bln (exp. 3.17bln).
• UBS (UBSG SW) - Q1 2026 (USD): Revenue 14.2bln (exp. 13.2bln), Net income 3.04bln (exp. 2.42bln), confident in 2026 financial targets. Announces share buyback of up to USD 3bln by its Q2 results, aiming to do more by year-end.

FX

• DXY continues to outperform most G10 peers as the preferred hedge against higher oil prices. Many catalysts will dictate the path forward for the Greenback, FOMC and BoC today, then the BoE and ECB on Thursday.
• DXY remains supported by both the 100 and 200 DMAs at the 98.50 mark as crude benchmarks rise into a packed session. In addition to the Fed meeting, the Senate Banking Committee is expected to advance Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair; the vote is set for 10:00EDT/15:00BST.
• A quick preview into the Fed, the Bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, with focus squarely on Chair Powell’s guidance as policymakers assess the inflationary impact of the ongoing US-Iran conflict. The recent surge in oil prices has pushed back rate cut expectations, with a Reuters poll showing a majority of economists now see easing delayed until at least September. Traders also seek details about Powell’s future, with this meeting expected to be his last as Fed Chair, providing Kevin Warsh is approved in time.
• EUR is also lower against the Buck but fares better than peers despite German state CPIs being indicative of a cooler mainland series. EUR remains supported by the 1.17 mark, and ING writes this morning, "Tomorrow’s ECB meeting should, in our view, largely meet market expectations.", aside from geopols, the next catalyst for the EUR will be the Fed meeting today.
• Antipodeans are the worst performers in the G10 space by a large margin after Aussie inflation for March was softer than expected and trimmed bets for hikes in Next week's RBA meeting. ING writes "The pullback in AUD looks mostly a function of stretched positioning rather than a real rethink of RBA expectations.

Central Banks

• RBNZ Governor Breman said the global environment continues to present headwinds, Q1 core inflation have remained stable within the 1-3% target band.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8608 vs exp. 6.8347 (prev. 6.8589).
• Banxico Governor Rodriguez said the Bank is close to finishing its rate cutting cycle that began in 2024.

Trade/Tariffs

• European lawmakers failed to reach a deal on watered-down landmark AI rules after 12 hours of negotiations, talks to resume next month.
• US Secretary of State Rubio expresses deep concerned by China's targeted economic pressure after the Barboa and Cristobal terminals decision.

Fixed Income

• A modestly bearish start in fixed benchmarks, given continued upside in the energy complex. Gains for energy occurring in recent trade despite a lack of fresh driver, and potentially as participants take another look at the WSJ reporting around a prolonged Hormuz closure, as while this is less risky than strikes, it does suggest a further extension of the ongoing supply disruption.
• Amidst this, fixed benchmarks are at lows. USTs to a 110-24+ base, but with downside of just a few ticks as we await the FOMC. The Fed is expected to maintain its rate in a 3.50-3.75% band, with focus on the guidance from Chair Powell in what may be his last meeting as Chair. As a reminder, the Senate Banking Committee is today expected to advance the nomination of Warsh to the broader Senate.
• Bunds are also at lows, down to 110-24+ with downside of a few ticks at most. Fleeting upside seen in EGBs as the initial German State CPIs are indicative of a cooler mainland series than the consensus for the 13:00BST mainland series suggests. Bunds spiked higher from 124.95 to 125.07, shy of the earlier 125.16 high. Albeit, the move swiftly pared and Bunds are back at lows.
• Gilts gapped lower by nine ticks, and have since slipped another 14 to an 86.54 trough. Action a function of the above, with Gilts trading broadly in-line with peers this morning. On the UK specifically, PM Starmer was not referred to the Privileges Committee. However, the number of Labour MPs who defied the whip and those who abstained without a clear reason is indicative of a moderate rebellion, not one sufficient to yet hit the threshold to trigger a leadership contest, but nonetheless an ominous sign into the May 7th local elections and further Mandelson-related communication releases in the weeks ahead.
• Italy sold EUR 5.5bln vs exp. EUR 4.5-5.5bln 3.15% 2031, 3.35% 2035 BTP and EUR 3.5bln vs exp. EUR 3.0-3.5bln 2036 CCTeu.
• Germany sold EUR 3.8bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.90% 2036 Bund: b/c 1.15x (prev. 1.24x), average yield 3.08% (prev. 2.92%), retention 23.3% (prev. 23.66%)

Commodities

• WTI and Brent began the European morning with very mild gains, and have continued to extend higher. WTI Jun'26 topped the USD 102/bbl mark, to make a peak at USD 102.78/bbl (vs trough of USD 98.42/bbl); Brent Jul'26 resides near peaks at USD 106.16/bbl, which also marks the WTD high.
• Focus remains on the US-Iran situation, which, as it stands, does not appear to be moving towards peace. A WSJ article overnight, citing sources, suggested that President Trump told officials to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, attempting to squeeze Iran’s economy. This will ultimately guide traders to price in the possibility of long-term disruptions to energy, and hence explains the strength in energy this morning.
• Most recently, President Trump posted on Truth Social that “Iran can’t get their act together. They don’t know how to sign a non-nuclear deal. They better get smart soon!”. Alongside this, an AI image of himself holding a rifle, with explosions behind him, the accompanying caption read "NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!". A post which spurred about a bucks worth of upside in the complex.
• Spot gold is a touch lower this morning and currently resides towards the lower end of a USD 4,568-4,610/oz range. As has been the case, the yellow metal has been subdued by the stronger USD and inflationary implications of the war in Iran. Today’s focus will be on the Fed Policy Announcement, which is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, with focus squarely on Chair Powellʼs guidance, as policymakers assess the inflationary impact of the ongoing US-Iran conflict.
• Base metals are mixed; 3M LME Aluminium is a touch firmer this morning, alongside strength in 3M LME Copper, whilst Palladium and Nickel move lower. 3M LME Copper holds above the USD 13k/t mark, within a USD 13,026-13,155.93/t range. Copper has advanced as Chinese fabs replenished stockpiles ahead of the Labor Day holiday, with restocking supporting prices and some buyers viewing recent declines on global growth concerns as an opportunity.

Geopolitics

• Ukraine is facing risk of tougher terms to get some EU loan payouts, Bloomberg reported citing sources; payouts would be dependent on the introduction of a tax change for businesses.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Mar Housing Starts, est. 1380k
• 8:30 am: United States Mar P Building Permits, est. 1390k
• 8:30 am: United States Mar P Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.37%, prior 0.8%
• 8:30 am: United States Mar P Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.5%, prior -1.3%
• 8:30 am: United States Mar P Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.4%, prior 0.9%
• 2:00 pm: United States Apr 29 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound), est. 3.75%, prior 3.75%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from a very sunny Frankfurt where summer has truly arrived. It's now been a week since I started wearing a WHOOP and Oura Ring to go alongside my trusty Apple Watch. With all these wearables I feel like the banking version of Mr T. Apologies to those not old enough to remember the A-team. Quick results are that I sleep very well for 4-5 hours and then it's pot luck what the last 2 hours bring! Lots of awake time and restless sleep. I've done various AI searches as to why that's the case. Maybe it's searching AI that causes it.

Anyway, hopefully you're a bit fresher than me as we enter FOMC decision day. Markets are entering it slightly on the back foot as oil prices have continued to grind higher over the last 24 hours while tech sentiment slipped after a report that OpenAI had missed internal targets. However even on the latter point Nasdaq futures have recovered more than half yesterday's losses overnight.  

Starting with the Middle East, the US and Iran seem to be no closer to resolution over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The WSJ reported last night that President Trump had instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockage of Iran, while Trump himself posted earlier yesterday that Iran “want us to “Open the Hormuz Strait” as soon as possible”. CNN reported that Iranian officials were expected to submit a revised peace proposal in the next few days. This uncertain backdrop saw Brent crude rise +2.80% to $111.26/bbl yesterday, its highest level in four weeks (flat overnight). So concerns about a more prolonged stagflationary shock have risen, not least as slightly further out the oil futures curve, the 3- to 6-month Brent futures are now trading within a dollar of the highs reached in late March.  

While higher oil prices and stagflation fears added to the risk-off sentiment, it was AI worries that were the bigger factor in driving yesterday’s equity losses. The major catalyst was a WSJ report that OpenAI had missed its internal revenue and user targets for the end of 2025. While OpenAI pushed back on the concerns, saying its consumer and enterprise businesses are “firing on all cylinders”, the news revived previous fears about whether the huge spending commitments will eventually pay off. So after reaching record highs on Monday, the S&P 500 (-0.49%), the NASDAQ (-0.90%) and the Mag 7 (-0.29%) all fell back, whilst the Philly semiconductor index (-3.58%) saw its biggest loss in four weeks. Moreover, given the integration of OpenAI’s in the AI-ecosystem, those concerns spread from software and cloud companies like Oracle (-4.05%) and Coreweave (-5.83%), to semiconductor equipment firms like Qnity Electronics (-4.35%) and Applied Materials (-5.87%). So that’s rather dampened the mood into this week’s earnings, particularly with four of the Magnificent 7 set to report their earnings tonight after the close. As mentioned at the top Nasdaq futures (+0.49%) have recovered more than half yesterday's losses this morning with S&P 500 (+0.19%) futures also edging higher.  

Asian markets are generally higher with the Hang Seng (+1.29%) leading the gains, followed by the KOSPI (+0.72%), the CSI (+0.64%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.40%). The S&P/ASX 200 (-0.23%) is lower even after slightly softer inflation.  

Australian CPI rose by +4.6% year-on-year in March, marginally below the anticipated +4.8%, but it increased significantly from the 3.7% recorded in the previous quarter. Core inflation, as indicated by the trimmed mean CPI, rose by +3.3% in March, remaining steady from the previous month while still surpassing the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) annual target of 2% to 3%. Q1 trimmed mean came in at 0.81% qoq around a tenth softer than expectations but Q2 so far has continued to see oil prices high so there won't be too much comfort with that print. For now, yields on the 3-year policy-sensitive Australian government bonds are down by -4.5 basis points, currently standing at 4.68% as we go to print. The probability of a hike next week based on futures are down 15pp to 68%. Elsewhere in the region, Japanese markets are closed today due to a public holiday.

While yesterday was relatively quiet in terms of Iran newsflow, another major headline for oil markets came with the UAE’s announcement that it would leave OPEC on May 1. They’ve been a member since 1967 and are the third-biggest oil producer in the group, producing around 3.5mn barrels per day before the conflict, accounting for about 12% of OPEC’s output. The UAE had in the past pushed to increase its production quota within OPEC given its investments in new oil production capacity in recent years. While the near-term impact of the move is likely to be negligible, with closure of the Strait of Hormuz the limiting factor, longer-term this could allow the UAE to increase its oil production and reduce OPEC’s influence over the global oil market. Oil futures reacted to these potential long-term ramifications, with the 12-month ahead Brent future edging -0.34% lower to $79.87/bbl yesterday despite front-month prices surging higher.

Looking ahead to today, the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. They’re widely expected to keep rates on hold, so the focus will be on their forward guidance for what they’re thinking about future policy. Our US economists think the key question is whether they formally adopt two-sided language about the policy outlook in the statement, and whether Chair Powell indicates a more balanced risk assessment in the press conference. Their base case is that the Fed will wait until June for meaningful changes in guidance, but the risk is that communications skew hawkish. See their full preview here for more.

Ahead of that, US Treasury yields moved higher as inflation concerns persisted, with investors dialling back the likelihood of Fed rate cuts this year. In fact, the probability of a cut by December was down to just 24% by the close, having been at 35% on Monday, so it’s seen as an increasingly unlikely prospect. The fading pricing of Fed cuts was also supported by the Conference Board’s consumer confidence print yesterday which surprised on the upside in April, rising to its highest level of 2026 so far at 92.8 (vs. 89.0 expected). So US consumers showing impressive resilience to the energy shock, though we should note that most of the survey was conducted before the latest rise in wholesale gasoline prices since mid-April, which reached a new post-2022 high yesterday. This backdrop saw the 2yr Treasury yield (+3.8bps) rise to 3.84%, though the 10yr yield (+0.6bps) was more stable at 4.35%.  

A pessimistic macro mood was clearer in Europe yesterday. Matters weren’t helped by the ECB’s latest bank lending and inflation expectation surveys, which pointed to upside inflation risks combined with downside growth risks. Notably, 1yr and 3yr inflation expectations surged from 2.5% to +4.0% and +3.0% respectively,  their highest levels since 2023. Longer-term expectations were more stable at +2.4% (up from 2.3%). Meanwhile, the Bank Lending Survey showed a clear deterioration, pointing to the tightest credit conditions since early 2024. So it was a difficult backdrop, and inflation fears saw markets fully price in an ECB rate hike by the June meeting again. And in turn, both equities and bonds fell back for a second day, with the Stoxx 600 (-0.37%), DAX (-0.27%) and CAC 40 (-0.46%) moving lower, whilst yields on 10yr bunds (+3.3bps), OATs (+3.7bps) and BTPs (+5.8bps) all rose.  

Here in the UK, yesterday saw 10yr gilt yields close above 5% for the first time since 2008, moving up +3.2bps to 5.00%. In part, that was driven by those wider inflation concerns as oil prices crept higher, but the political speculation around PM Keir Starmer kept swirling as well. Indeed, MPs voted on whether Starmer should face a parliamentary enquiry about whether he misled the House of Commons over the vetting for Peter Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador. That vote failed to pass yesterday evening given Labour’s large majority, but the story has showed no sign of leaving the headlines, and comes as Starmer faces another important test with the local elections next week. It’s a story the gilt market has been following closely, given expectations that Starmer’s successor might loosen the fiscal rules and preside over more gilt issuance.   

Looking at the day ahead, the main events include policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada. Data releases include US March durable goods orders, housing starts, Germany April CPI, Italy’s April economic sentiment, Eurozone March M3 money supply, April economic confidence. And earnings will be in strong focus, with Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta all reporting after the close.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 08:29

Gabe Plotkin Plans ETF Comeback After Melvin Capital Collapse

After closing his hedge fund in the aftermath of the meme-stock upheaval, Gabe Plotkin is exploring a new investment structure, according to Bloomberg.

He’s looking to place a portion of his personal holdings into an exchange-traded fund, using a method that has become increasingly attractive for wealthy investors seeking to postpone capital gains taxes.

As co-chair of the Charlotte Hornets, Plotkin is expected to contribute most of the starting assets for a proposed vehicle called the Snowball ETF, according to people familiar with the plans. The fund—initially filed late last year—would be built through a “351 conversion,” a mechanism that allows an existing basket of investments to be transferred into an ETF format. This approach has gained popularity because it can offer tax deferral along with the flexibility and liquidity associated with ETFs.

Bloomberg reports that he first drew widespread attention during the 2021 retail-trading frenzy, when his firm, Melvin Capital Management, suffered major losses from bets against so-called meme stocks. Retail investors, many coordinating online during the pandemic, pushed up shares of companies like GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.—positions Melvin had expected to fall. The resulting losses forced the closure of a fund that had once managed roughly $13 billion and delivered strong returns for years.

Plotkin resurfaced in the news again in 2023 when he helped lead the purchase of Michael Jordan’s majority stake in the Hornets.

The strategy behind the new ETF relies on a provision in the tax code—Section 351—that allows investors to contribute appreciated assets without immediately triggering taxes. Once inside the ETF, those holdings can be rebalanced more efficiently, potentially reducing future tax burdens while also benefiting from the tradability of the ETF structure.

Some of the assets expected to seed the Snowball ETF reportedly carry unrealized gains. The fund is targeting a launch window of late this year or early 2027 and will pursue a focused, actively managed equity approach under Plotkin’s leadership at Snowball Advisors.

Across Wall Street, strategies designed to minimize taxes—often grouped under the idea of “tax alpha”—are gaining momentum. Among them, 351 conversions have stood out for their rapid adoption, drawing increasing attention from regulators as their use expands.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 07:45

$43,000 Front-Row Seats: How Soccer Fans Are Being Priced Out Of World Cup

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

First-round match ticket: $280 to $43,000.

Stadium daily parking pass: $150 to $600.

Public transportation to venues: $100 or more in some cities.

In-person 2026 FIFA World Cup experience: Priceless, or somewhere between a mortgage payment and a year or two of college, depending on who you ask.

Cristiano Ronaldo of team Al-Nassr FC scores the team's fourth goal during the Saudi Pro League match between Al Nassr and Al Khaleej at Al Awwal Park in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Nov. 23, 2025. Abdullah Ahmed/Getty Images

Americans and international soccer fans alike suffered serious sticker shock over the cost of attending the biggest sporting event on the globe this summer, and that’s before calculating airfare and accommodations.

This year’s event features 48 teams and 104 matches in 16 host cities across the United States, Mexico, and Canada.

So far, FIFA’s dynamic pricing system for more than 1 million tickets has even the die-hard fanatics questioning whether this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity is worth taking on months—or years—of debt.

Out of Reach

Joyanne Howell of Toronto tried to plan a vacation with her son around the 2026 World Cup. She hoped to see the opening match in Mexico on June 11, and then catch a group play match in Monterrey featuring Portugal, Morocco, Japan, or South Africa. The trip would have exceeded $15,000, with event tickets the largest expense.

“It’s been a lifelong dream of mine to attend the World Cup,” Howell told The Epoch Times. “The corporate greed is at an all-time high, and it’s ruining what used to be a wonderful event. I’m not interested in supporting FIFA in this.”

On top of the sky-high ticket prices, Howell added, there’s the new match format—which adds several subpar squads to the games, increasing the number of teams from 32 to 48—and current global instability.

“It just doesn’t seem worth it to invest in this World Cup,” she said.

Mexico’s Israel Reyes and Belgium’s Jeremy Doku during a friendly soccer game between the Mexican national team and Belgian national soccer team, the Red Devils, in Chicago, on April 1, 2026, in preparation for the 2026 World Cup. Dirk Waem / Belga Mag / Belga / AFP via Getty Images

Dean Foti, a coaching director for a regional youth soccer organization in upstate New York, said complaints about unreasonable World Cup ticket prices were especially spirited among coaches and families who had hoped to visit a venue this summer.

“Unfortunately, the common fan has been priced out of attending,” he told The Epoch Times.

He said many folks also didn’t like FIFA’s initial lottery, in which tickets were sold by venue and date even though the matchups were unknown at the time.

“Haven’t met one yet that said, ‘You won’t believe what a great deal I just got on World Cup tickets,” he said.

Dynamic Pricing

FIFA, a nonprofit serving as professional soccer’s world governing body, entered into individual agreements with host cities and venues to rent the stadiums. It set the initial prices of tickets, which have been sold in phases to adjust to market demand.

The organization maintains that most of the revenue from ticket sales, television broadcasting rights, and licensed merchandise sales covers the cost of organizing and governing more than 200 leagues, competitions, and programs across six continents.

A glance at the StubHub website shows high prices and fluctuation: a nosebleed seat at the Qatar versus Switzerland match on June 13 in Santa Clara, California, for $280; a front-row seat near center circle for the United States against Australia on June 19 in Seattle for $43,900; tickets for the July 14 semi-final in Arlington, Texas, starting at $2,064.

The Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Exposition Park is seen in Los Angeles on March 5, 2026. The venue will host the FIFA Fan Festival during the World Cup, as well as track and field events and the LA28 Summer Olympics opening ceremony. Mario Tama/Getty Images

For the U.S. squad’s other two group play matches, SeatGeek lists the June 12 game against Paraguay at $1,500 and against Turkey on June 25 at $1,366. Both games will be held in Los Angeles.

Online ticket sites also show that parking fees in some of the U.S. cities start at $100 and increase by location and phase of competition. Vehicle spots for Argentina versus Algeria on June 16 in Kansas City, Missouri, range from $150 to $600, while the cost at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium for a June 30 quarterfinal match is $225.

An American Concept

Keith Pagello, founder of Kentucky-based analytics company TicketData, said FIFA adopted this method of ticket sales from the major American professional sports leagues, which command sky-high prices for playoff games.

The global soccer organization, he added, is still advertising last-minute sales, in which a limited number of tickets for mediocre seats are released for $1,100 or more “to portray the image of scarcity.”

“I’ve never seen so many last-minute sales,” Pagello told The Epoch Times. “But they’re certainly not softening their price at this point.”

He said the most outrageous prices listed by resellers right now, such as $43,000 for front row at the United States versus Australia, were not set by FIFA.

“Anybody can ask any price for any ticket,” he said.

Fans of Congo cheer their team during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Play-Off tournament final match between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Jamaica at Estadio Guadalajara in Zapopan, Mexico, on March 31, 2026. Agustin Cuevas/Getty Images

It may be too soon to determine whether FIFA and resellers can command such high prices, or if they’ll drop closer to the event.

“The big question is, how many tickets do they still have left?” Pagello said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if 10,000 seats still sit in FIFA’s pocket for many of the games.”

Pagello’s data, much of which is publicly available on his website, indicates that after fans from the host nations, fans from Brazil and Argentina are buying the most tickets, based on the prices to see those two national squads play.

Hotel rooms and lodging near the venue sites typically exceed $200 in the summer months. Several major sports publications have reported that the price of accommodation hasn’t yet spiked to the degree initially predicted in part because fans hesitate to pay so much for tickets, so that situation could change either way in the weeks ahead.

Government Pushback

Federal lawmakers also took offense to the high admission prices. In a March 10 letter to FIFA President Gianni Infantino, 69 members of Congress said, “The extreme high demand for World Cup tickets should not be a green light for price gouging at the expense of the people who make the World Cup the most watched sporting event in the world.”

FIFA President Gianni Infantino poses on the red carpet prior to the FIFA World Cup 2026 Final Draw at John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington on Dec. 5, 2025. Federal lawmakers recently asked Infantino to address the World Cup’s high admission prices. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

The lawmakers said the federal government will spend $625 million to reimburse municipal law enforcement agencies, and each U.S. host city will spend about $150 million on infrastructure improvements, transportation, and security preparations. Locals who are fortunate enough to afford tickets have already paid taxes for these services.

Moreover, because FIFA prohibits local sponsorships, host cities are collectively facing a $250 million shortfall for this event. They may have to charge admission to World Cup Fan Fests, which have traditionally been free.

“We urge FIFA to take immediate corrective action to address the harms caused by its use of dynamic pricing, which has transformed the world’s largest sporting event into an exclusionary, profit-driven enterprise at the direct expense of fans, host communities, and public taxpayers,” the letter said.

Ticket prices aren’t the only high cost steaming elected leaders. On April 17, New Jersey Transit announced that round-trip rail tickets from Manhattan to MetLife Stadium will be $150. The New York/New Jersey World Cup host committee will also offer a round-trip shuttle bus, with tickets costing $80 each.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 07:20

Goldman's State Of U.S. Consumer Outlook Gets More Grim

Goldman consumer analysts Kate McShane and Bonnie Herzog cut their 2026 discretionary cash-inflow growth forecast for the second time this year, citing a worsening squeeze on U.S. households as slower disposable income growth collides with higher fuel prices at the pump. The revision points to a softening among cash-strapped consumers as the US-Iran conflict enters its third month.

McShane and Herzog cut their 2026 U.S. discretionary cash inflow growth to 3.7% from the previous forecast of 4.2% in early April, as slower disposable income growth and the national average gasoline price over $4 per gallon squeeze household spending power.

Their revision reflects a lower forecast for disposable personal income growth of 4.7%, down from 5.0%, as tax cut benefits from President Trump's OBBBA are now seen largely offsetting higher capital gains tax payments, leaving the overall tax bill roughly unchanged from last year.

The largest drag on consumers is energy, as Goldman analysts at the start of the week raised their fourth-quarter 2026 Brent forecast to $90 a barrel from $80, citing ongoing disruptions in Persian Gulf production, a delayed normalization of Gulf exports to late June, and a slower recovery timeline for output.

"Accordingly, we now expect energy spending to grow by 14.4% in 2026 (vs. 12.3% prior) to reflect higher energy futures," the analysts said.

They warned that $100 Brent will create a 50-basis-point headwind to aggregate U.S. discretionary spending power in 2026, with working-poor households taking the brunt of the hit, at about 135 bps.

Here's their current view on the consumer for 2026:

Our economists expect a total tax benefit of around $75-90bn from the OBBBA but roughly unchanged tax bill y/y, resulting in a limited tailwind for consumer spending. Based on our economists' forecasts, we now expect +4.7% DPI growth in 2026 (vs. +5.0% when we last updated in early April), following +4.4% DPI growth in 2025, which is ahead of historical levels (i.e., 2009-2019 average annual growth of 4.0%).

We expect this to translate into a lower net household cash inflow of +4.2% in 2026 (vs. 4.6% prior from our early April analysis), representing a slight improvement over the +4.1% growth in 2025. Elevated interest rates were a meaningful burden on the US consumer over the past few years and our economists continue expect two 25bps rate cuts in 2026. Accordingly, we model 7.8% growth in mortgage equity withdrawals (MEW) and 7.7% growth in borrowings for 2026. We continue to anticipate modest relief from a slightly more favorable interest rate environment; our forecast for financial obligations remains unchanged at +14.3% of DPI in 2026, compared to +14.5% in 2025.

We model essential expenditures to grow by +7.4% in 2026 (unchanged), well above the +4.3% growth seen in 2025. This is predicated on +14.4% growth in spending on energy goods and services (vs. +12.3% prior) and +5.3% growth in food spending (vs. +6.6% prior), both up from +1.1% and +3.7% growth, respectively, in 2025. We raise our energy goods and services spending expectation to reflect higher energy futures, while we slightly temper our food inflation expectation due to lower than expected Feb data. This, coupled with our lower DPI growth assumption, translates into +3.7% discretionary cash inflow growth in 2026 (vs. +4.2% prior), representing a marginal sequential decline compared to +4.0% growth in 2025.

By income quintile, higher gasoline prices will disproportionately burden the bottom-income quintile, who spend roughly four times as much on gasoline as a share of after-tax income compared to the top quintile. We expect the bottom-income quintile to lag the aggregate US household with +4.2% DPI growth in 2026 (vs. +4.7% aggregate) as our economists continue to expect tepid job growth. Cuts to Medicaid and SNAP benefits, and now greater exposure to the increase in gasoline prices are cost headwinds to this income cohort. Our pre-savings DCF expectations for the bottom quintile remain unchanged at +0.8% for 2026, well below the +3.7% aggregate growth rate. Overall, pre-savings DCF expectations for 2026 have moved lower by 30-40bps across all other quintiles due to the lower expected DPI growth.

Our adjusted discretionary cash flow growth takes consumers estimated savings rate into account. Consistent with historical patterns where consumers dissave to cover higher energy costs, we now expect the savings rate to be lower than previously estimated in 2026, now at 4.3% of DPI (vs. 4.5% prior), below 2025 savings levels of 4.6% of DPI. Ultimately, a nearly 40bps lower discretionary cash inflow for 2026 relative to our prior forecast is balanced by a lower savings rate to drive adjusted DCF growth (a proxy for PCE growth) of +4.2% in 2026 (unchanged), though still below the +5.1% growth seen in 2025.

Exhibit 2:

Exhibit 3:

Exhibit 4:

Exhibit 5/6:

Exhibit 7:

Exhibit 8:

Exhibit 9:

Exhibit 10:

"Given the continued volatility in oil prices, we present a hypothetical sensitivity analysis to estimate the impact on adj. discretionary cash flow for every 10%, 15%, and 20% increase in energy goods and services spending relative to our current modeled assumptions. Additionally, we believe higher energy prices would impact consumer spending power, and we see an over ~50bps headwind for consumer discretionary spending power for US households in aggregate in 2026, and ~135bps headwind for the bottom-quintile, assuming ~$100/bbl pricing holds," the analysts said.

Exhibit 12:

Exhibit 13:

Exhibit 14:

What could change Goldman's consumer outlook is a U.S.-Iran peace deal. But the UAE's exit from OPEC adds another downside risk for crude: the cartel's ability to defend prices is weakened just as any ceasefire and normalization of Hormuz traffic could send Brent and WTI prices cratering. 

Professional subscribers can read Goldman's full "State of the US Consumer" note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 06:55

My mid-week morning train WFH reads:

• The Worst Year to Retire Wasn’t 1929. The Creator of the 4% Retirement Rule Says It Was 1968. William Bengen, who conceived the 4% rule for safe portfolio withdrawals, to calculate the worst time to retire over the past century. A reasonable guess might be October 1929, right before stocks crashed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 89% of its value by the summer of 1932. The Dow didn’t top its 1929 high until 1954. You would be wrong. Retirees in 1968 fared worse when stocks encountered a prolonged bear market that persisted until the early 1980s. However, the real killer was inflation. (Barron’s)

• The government is meddling with earnings reporting — but Tesla, Amazon and other market superstars prove there’s no problem: Investors aren’t trapped in short-term thinking — but the SEC still wants semiannual earnings reporting. (Marketwatch)

•  Robotaxis are the new millennial lifestyle subsidy: Waymo and friends are torching investor cash so urban professionals can have nice things. The Uber playbook, redux — and someone always pays in the end. (Sherwood)

• The Jevons Employment Effect From AI: Apollo’s Daily Spark applies the Jevons paradox to AI and labor — when technology makes work cheaper, you often get more of it, not less. A counterweight to the replacement narrative. That includes startups launched by recent college graduates, who can now compete with established firms on certain tasks. (Apollo)

• Much ado about the 1974 ‘petrodollar’ deal. According to ominous scenarios disseminated in financial circles, social media and news organisations, the war may undo an arrangement initiated in a 1974 secret deal between the US and Saudi Arabia. This stipulated that Riyadh would use dollars for selling oil and investing the proceeds, with the US reciprocating by providing military protection and aid. The FT dismantles the mythology around the Saudi-US petrodollar arrangement. What actually happened in 1974, what didn’t, and why the conspiracy theories get the economics backwards. (Financial Times)

• The unflattering secrets revealed so far in Elon Musk’s latest legal feud: The Musk-Altman court fight is generating exactly the sort of unflattering discovery that lawsuits between billionaires usually do. The receipts so far are unflattering for Musk in particular. (Washington Post)

• It doesn’t matter how much you sit — walking more could lower your risk of death and disease: New research suggests step count dominates sit-time as a mortality predictor. Moving more matters more than sitting less — get up and walk. (Science Daily)

• Ukraine’s killer robots show how war is changing. Droid TW 12.7 was  developed by Devdroid, a private tech company in Ukraine involved in the manufacture of military robotics. This robot is armed with a 12.7 mm M2 Browning machine gun, has a firing range of up to roughly one kilometre, and is equipped with night-vision capability. It is remotely operated, rather than fully autonomous, although it can carry out preprogrammed combat tasks. Autonomous weapons are no longer theoretical. Ukraine’s battlefield is the live proving ground for AI-driven combat systems that will define the next generation of warfare. (The Conversation)

•  The Weird, Twisting Tale of How China Spied on Alysa Liu and Her Dad: Espionage, Olympic figure skating, and a dissident father — a story that reads like a thriller but happens to be entirely true. Years before the figure skater became an Olympic superstar, a Chinese operative tried to stalk her father and monitored other US residents deemed dissidents against China. And that’s just the beginning. (Wired)

• For ‘The Devil Wears Prada 2’ Actor B.J. Novak, There Was Never a Plan B: The ‘Office’ star on his pursuit of comedy, following in Conan O’Brien’s footsteps at Harvard and his friendship with Mindy Kaling. (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with David Gardner, cofounder of The Motley Fool in 1993 (with his brother Tom Gardner). Originally launched as a print investment newsletter based on the idea that ordinary investors could beat Wall St., it gained traction when promoted on America Online (AOL) in 1994; it soon became a major presence on AOL and then Fool.com. His latest book is “Rule Breaker Investing: How to Pick the Best Stocks of the Future and Build Lasting Wealth.”

 

Most Prediction Market Traders Are Losing Money While Bots Rack Up Gains

Source: Bloomberg

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Wednesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Germany Scrambles For Polish Oil Route As Russia Halts Druzhba Flows

Submitted by Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com

Germany is hunting for solutions to reroute crude oil supplies to the PCK Schwedt refinery after Russia said it would halt Kazakh oil deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline starting May 1, with roughly 43,000 barrels per day (bpd) now at risk.

Berlin is now in talks with Poland over moving replacement barrels through the port of Gdansk, with potential deliveries flowing onward to Schwedt, the refinery that supplies much of eastern Germany, including Berlin, with fuels. The plant has become a recurring pressure point since Germany moved away from Russian crude, and this latest disruption exposes how little slack remains in the system.

Kazakhstan shipped 2.146 million metric tons to Germany through Druzhba last year, up 44% from 2024, with another 730,000 tons delivered in the first quarter.

Poland says it has the technical capacity to handle additional flows, but port access, shipping schedules, crude availability and refinery configurations all matter, too. Replacing pipeline crude with seaborne barrels is rarely a one-for-one swap.

The episode also revives an old vulnerability in European oil security in that the infrastructure can be diversified on paper and still remain concentrated in practice, with Druzbha still running through Russia.

Alternatives do exist for Schwedt, but they are costlier and more complicated. The refinery has increasingly leaned on crude arriving through Baltic routes and Germany’s Rostock port, but those channels are limited.

There is a bigger signal here for the oil market. What looks like a regional supply disruption adds to a broader premium around logistics security, not just crude supply. In Europe, barrels are one question. Moving them is another.

And that distinction matters increasingly for pricing, refinery margins, and the value of secure non-Russian supply routes.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 06:30