Buckle Up For A Wild Week

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

The Earth Moves Just a Bit

“Operation Epic Fury was the loud one. Operation Economic Fury is the quiet one. . . . While the carriers were on television, Treasury was doing the actual demolition.”

- Jesús Enrique Rosas on X

Expect a consequential week.

The Persian Gulf remains closed and colossal oil slicks leak out of Kharg Island while Iran blusters and stomps its feet. No one can even try to buy its oil anymore, not even China. The sanctions are too onerous. Iran’s wells must be shut in now. Imagine how the production chiefs out in the oil fields are howling at their insane IRGC overseers.

Iran has no economy left operating. Iran’s domestic security force, the Basij (Sâzmân-e Basij-e Mostaz’afin, or “Mobilization of the Oppressed”) is strangling anyone who expresses discontent in the streets, not a good look for a regime that can’t survive without the pretense of popular support.

Late Sunday, the US President rejected the Tehran’s latest conditions for peace out of hand.

They are trying to jerk the whole world around, even while they whirl around the drain. Despite what you read in The New York Times — Iran’s US-based chief cheerleader — it is probably a matter of days now before capitulation. The ball is in America’s court this morning, a real hanging lob shot. The return is apt to be hard. Of course, whatever official utterances come out of Iran, you must discount by about 99.9-percent. For now, there is nothing but the morning fog of suspense.

But strange doings are a’foot elsewhere.

You might have noticed that the UK’s labor government got drubbed in local elections, losing nearly 1,500 council seats, a humiliating repudiation. It’s a matter of days before PM Keir Starmer will have to hang it up. His possible replacements are utterly unknown to Americans — Angela Rayner, a former Deputy PM, Energy Secretary Ed Milliband, Health Sec’y Wes Streeting — and any of them is just a place-holder for the election’s main winner Nigel Farage of the Reform Party, which exists wholly outside the age-old British political transect of Labour / Tories.

The Labour Party, you see, is lately as loathsome in the altogether to British voters as its current avatar, Sir Keir (Knight Commander of the Order of the Bath, KCB), whose latest act was to extend social welfare benefits to the additional wives of poly-marital Muslims. Way to go! Why not just travel the island empire from town-to-town and slap every indigenous Briton in the face? And the Tories (putative Conservatives), well, just fuggeddabowdem. Sir Keir’s Tory predecessor as PM, Rishi Sunak, screwed the pooch for his party into the next twenty years allowing net Third World migration to hit record highs while the kingdom crumbled.

The way it works over there, Sir Keir or whoever takes over from him, asks King Charles to dissolve Parliament, and you get a sudden national election short of Parliament’s regular five-year term. And so, sometime in the months ahead, Nigel Farage will become Prime Minister and things will change-up bigly in Britain. Mr. Farage will have to contend, among other things, with Donald Trump’s dismantling of whatever was left of Britain’s stealth neo-colonial command of global finance through the British banking system. The question really is: can Farage arrest his country’s sickening slide into becoming an Islamic caliphate, with all the Third World bells and whistles? Can he possibly even start shipping the most recent arrivals back to where they came from? Can he do what Mr. Trump is attempting in the USA and turn the UK back to an economy based on the actual production of goods rather than financial finaglery?

Oddly, as the old Mother Country rejects the Globalist tool, Keir Starmer, Canadian PM Mark Carney attempts to highjack the Globalist baton for the rest of Anglosphere remnant of the old empire. And also, in case you didn’t notice just days ago, King Charles’s attempt to kiss up to Mr. Trump, despite all the mutual flattery and gala ceremony, was a failure for the King of England. That is to say, he did not succeed in getting Mr. Trump to back off even a little bit from reducing the Crown’s imperious control over world affairs.

Former President Obama tries shadow foreign policy with Canadian PM Carney

And so, in the background, you see former president Barack Obama skulk into Ottawa to plot around all those developments with Canadian PM Carney, who is positioning himself to operate as the British Empire’s shadow PM-in-absentia — like the Pope in Avignon during the tumultuous 1300s.

That is, Carney, former head of the Bank of England, is electing himself to oppose Nigel Farage, with the stealth assistance of America’s shadow leader of the Democratic Party, Mr. Obama, who actually represents the Islamic-Marxist chimeric alliance that Globalism has become.

Why is Barack Obama not subject to violation of the Logan Act for this?

Alas for that shifty operation, the Democratic Party in America is now way back on its heels after the double punch of flubbing its Virginia redistricting gambit and then the SCOTUS decision against racial gerrymandering that will cull dozens of racially-engineered Democratic districts out of the US House of Representatives.

Out the window is the Democrats’ scheme to impeach both Mr. Trump and Veep Vance in 2027 so as to install Hakeem Jeffries in the White House.

Yeah, really.

That was their plan. . . suddenly up in a vapor.

And the DOJ’s prosecutions of the Party’s multitudinous grifters and color revolutionists has barely even begun. My Gawd, they are sinking really fast now.

And mid-week, it’s off to China for Mr. Trump to meet Uncle Xi.

How badly do they want their oil supplies switched back on? And what are they prepared to do, to make that happen?

Buckle up for a wild week.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 16:20

Chief Justice Roberts Has No Spine

Authored by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker,

He’s a judicial pimp who pragmatically defends the Establishment’s bottom line.

I do not like Chief Justice John Roberts.  I think his loyalties lie more with defending the entrenched powers of the political Establishment than with defending the Constitution of the United States.  I find his jurisprudence squishy.  Although his decisions could be described as advancing, more often than not, conservative viewpoints, Roberts does not seem to have a consistent philosophy guiding his opinions.

Roberts is a pragmatist.  He surveys the mood of the country and considers how the rest of the members of the Court will vote on any case, and he chooses a position that he feels will best preserve the institutional longevity of the Judicial Branch.  Roberts is, in other words, more interested in maintaining the power of the branch that he embodies than in making tough, but correct, decisions.

None of Roberts’ rulings better exemplifies this pragmatic, amoral approach to jurisprudence than his 2012 decision to save Obamacare by redefining the individual insurance mandate as a tax, rather than as a penalty.  During oral arguments, the Obama administration barely addressed the possibility that the mandate could be seen as a tax.  Democrats did not want to admit that nationalizing health insurance would increase costs for Americans, and the word “tax” certainly implies that prices will rise (which they did).

President Obama had been haranguing the Court for over a year that should it strike down his signature welfare legislation putting the federal government in control of American medicine, the decision would be disastrous for the American people and render the Court illegitimate.  Roberts lives in the D.C. bubble.  All his friends live in the D.C. bubble.  The Democrat-controlled corporate news media reflect the prevailing opinions of those who live within the D.C. bubble.  So Chief Justice Roberts chose to avoid leftist backlash (and to protect the Establishment’s sizable financial investments in government-controlled, socialized medicine) by aligning himself with Justices Ginsburg, Breyer, Sotomayor, and Kagan.

Obama celebrated Roberts’ valuable assist: “The highest court in the land has now spoken,” the president gloated.  It is worth noting that similarly squishy jurist Justice Anthony Kennedy (a man whom Democrats succeeded in elevating to the Court after scuttling President Reagan’s original nomination of Robert Bork and then his replacement nomination of Douglas Ginsburg) actually joined the conservative members of the Court in a dissent that would have invalidated Obamacare in its entirety.  Because Roberts joined the four leftist members of the Court in protecting Obama’s government takeover of the medical profession, healthcare is substantially more expensive and provides substantially worse treatment today.

Roberts’ constitutionally illiterate and philosophically unsound Obamacare opinion permitted a nefarious government-corporate power axis to take hold that has killed private practices across the country, made every medical doctor a de facto government employee, replaced medical science with government-regulated treatments, and inserted a government bureaucrat inside every examination room.  But Roberts did preserve his standing in the D.C. bubble, maximize the profits of large insurance companies, bankrupt rural hospitals, increase the investment portfolio-generated wealth of insider-trading members of Congress, eliminate small practices that prioritized patient care, and let labor unions off the hook for healthcare obligations that they owed to their members.  Furthermore, an entire generation of young leftists — too ignorant to know that President Obama and his fellow Democrats are responsible for the horrible state of healthcare in the United States today — openly celebrate the assassination of health insurance company executives walking down the street.

When the issue of Obamacare’s unconstitutionality came before the Roberts Court, the chief justice could have saved the country from all the harm that has come from forcing another illegitimate government power grab upon the American people.  But that would have taken guts, wisdom, and principle.  Roberts has none of those virtues.  He’s a judicial pimp who pragmatically defends the Establishment’s bottom line.  The medical profession in America is worse off and American patients are poorer and less healthy because of Roberts’ cowardice.

What I find particularly galling about the chief justice, however, is that he demands to be respected as some kind of impartial and inherently righteous judicial priest.  If he could admit that he lacks a jurisprudential backbone and primarily represents the interests of the Establishment Blob in D.C., I would grant him some small measure of respect for being self-aware enough to understand that he is little more than a swampy, Leviathan-controlled, gelatinous judge whose opinions can be molded into whatever D.C.’s “elites” need.  But Roberts is not honest enough to do that.  Instead, he pretends to be above venal politics and struts around in his priestly robes as if he represents a branch of government too holy to be tainted by the inherently corrupting influence of power.

Although Roberts never said anything when Obama and his Democrat goons were threatening the Court before its damaging Obamacare decision, the chief justice jumped into action in 2018 to reprimand President Trump during his first term.  Trump had publicly excoriated a 9th Circuit judge for usurping constitutional powers vested to the president of the United States.  In doing so, Trump called the judicial tyrant “an Obama judge.”  Well, that rather anodyne remark threw Chief Justice Roberts into a “Why, I never” tizzy, and the Judicial Branch’s limp caretaker found his way to a member of the Democrat-controlled press in order to correct the president’s errant thinking: “We do not have Obama judges or Trump judges, Bush judges or Clinton judges.  What we have is an extraordinary group of dedicated judges doing their level best to do equal right to those appearing before them.”

Uhhh…sure, Chief Justice Gumby.  Why would a grown man feel compelled to tell such a blatant lie?  The whole country knows that judges come with certain ideological proclivities that influence their decisions on the bench.  While Republican presidents have repeatedly stumbled into nominating raging leftists (among them, Chief Justice Earl Warren and Justice David Souter) to the Supreme Court, nobody has any doubt that federal judges are chosen for their perceived philosophical bent.

This problem exists only because federal judges have proved incapable of performing their jobs with self-restraint.  In the past, Roberts has correctly defined the Judiciary’s obligations: “Our role is very clear.  We are to interpret the Constitution and laws of the United States and ensure that the political branches act within them.”  But that’s not how most judges act!  Instead of interpreting the Constitution, federal judges rewrite the Constitution.  Instead of interpreting laws written by Congress, federal judges rewrite those laws into laws of their own.  For Roberts to pretend that federal judges have not spent the last century imposing their will upon the American people makes him richly deserving of Queen Gertrude’s quip: “The lady doth protest too much, methinks.”

Eight years later, Lady Roberts is still protesting!  In a speech last week in Hershey, Pennsylvania, the chief justice claimed that judges are not “political actors.”  (Tell that to Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, whose opinions sound as if they were written by teenaged Marxists with dog-eared copies of Saul Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals!)  Roberts lamented how too many Americans “think we’re making policy decisions.”  (Perhaps that’s because too many judges are, in fact, making policy decisions!)  The chief justice also insisted that it is “not appropriate” for Americans to criticize individual judges.

Well, perhaps Chief Justice Roberts should convince his federal judges to stop behaving as partisan hacks!  Rather than permitting, through his silence, individual judges to usurp the powers of the president of the United States, perhaps Roberts should call those tyrannical judges out by name.  If he wants the Judicial Branch to be perceived as “independent” and “nonpartisan,” then he should insist that judges exercise constitutional self-restraint!

But he won’t do that.  Because Roberts has opinions but no spine.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 15:40

Fire Erupts At HF Sinclair Refinery In Tulsa

Local media in Tulsa, Oklahoma, report that the HF Sinclair refinery, which has a crude-processing capacity of 125,000 barrels per day, has suffered a fire. This comes just days after another refinery fire in the New Orleans area.

Fox 23 News reports that the Tulsa Fire Department is currently on the scene after a fire broke out at the refinery in West Tulsa earlier today.

The refinery is critical because it primarily processes sweet crude, can handle some sour Canadian crude, and markets refined products to the Mid-Continent states. Its products include gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, lubricants, specialty chemicals, and asphalt.

Neither the outlet nor local authorities have released information about what caused the fire or whether any components at the refinery were damaged.

BREAKING: Massive flames and thick smoke were seen rising from the HF Sinclair refinery in west Tulsa, Oklahoma. pic.twitter.com/rX9WQMe99z

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) May 11, 2026

Any prolonged outage at the HF Sinclair refinery in Tulsa could affect regional supplies of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel across Oklahoma and the nearby Plains/Mid-Continent states.

HF Sinclair is a top independent refiner that operates seven facilities with a total crude-processing capacity of about 678,000 barrels per day.

On Friday, PBF Energy's 190,000-barrel-per-day Chalmette refinery outside New Orleans suffered a major fire.

There has been a notable uptick in "refinery fire" news stories, according to Bloomberg data, whether those stories are from Eastern Europe, the Middle East, or the U.S.

Latest on refinery fires:

• Moscow Targeted By Over 50 Drones, Country's 2nd Largest Refinery On Fire
• Fire Erupts At Major Australian Refinery, Amplifying Fuel Shock As "Green" Killed Refining Buffer
• Mexico's "Energy Sovereignty" Dos Bocas Oil Refinery Hit By Major Fire
• Oil Jumps After Explosion And Massive Fire At One Of The Largest US Oil Refineries
• "Doesn't Look Good": Explosion Rocks Major New Orleans-Area Refinery As Fuel Markets Tighten

A series of refinery fires is an unwelcome development at a time when refined product inventories remain tight worldwide and the Hormuz chokepoint remains heavily disrupted.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 15:20

Hegseth: Senator Mark Kelly Revealed Classified Information On US Munitions Stockpiles

Via American Greatness,

Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) voiced concerns Sunday about the state of US weapons stockpiles following the recent conflict involving Iran, describing the extent of depleted munitions reserves as “shocking” during an appearance on CBS News’s Face the Nation.

“I think it’s fair to say it’s shocking how deep we have gone into these magazines,” Kelly said, arguing that the United States had exhausted significant amounts of military hardware without a clearly defined strategy.

“Because of that, we’ve expended a lot of munitions, and that means the American people are less safe.”

Kelly also warned that diminished stockpiles could affect America’s ability to respond to future conflicts, including a potential confrontation involving China in the Pacific region.

The comments drew a heated response from Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, who accused Kelly of publicly discussing information from a classified Pentagon briefing.

“‘Captain’ Mark Kelly strikes again. Now he’s blabbing on TV (falsely & dumbly) about a CLASSIFIED Pentagon briefing he received. Did he violate his oath…again?” Hegseth wrote on social media. He added that Pentagon legal counsel would review the matter.

“Captain” Mark Kelly strikes again.

Now he’s blabbing on TV (falsely & dumbly) about a *CLASSIFIED* Pentagon briefing he received.

Did he violate his oath…again? @DeptofWar legal counsel will review. https://t.co/mPBZHxZqpr

— Pete Hegseth (@PeteHegseth) May 10, 2026

Kelly rejected the criticism and argued that his remarks referenced information Hegseth himself had already discussed publicly during congressional testimony.

“We had this conversation in a public hearing a week ago and you said it would take ‘years’ to replenish some of these stockpiles,” Kelly wrote in response. “That’s not classified, it’s a quote from you.”

Kelly also criticized the administration’s handling of the conflict, saying officials had failed to clearly explain the mission’s goals and timeline to the American public.

The exchange is the latest clash between Kelly and the Trump administration.

Kelly previously drew criticism from administration officials after participating in a video urging military personnel not to follow unlawful orders, a message some Republicans characterized as encouraging insubordination.

No formal investigation has been publicly announced, though Hegseth said Pentagon attorneys would examine Kelly’s remarks.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 15:05

 

 

A proposal from the current administration is working its way through the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to end quarterly corporate earnings.

This is a good idea.

Unfortunately, the frequency is in the wrong direction. Instead of replacing quarterly earnings releases with annual or semiannual ones, the SEC should be moving toward monthly, weekly, or even real-time earnings releases.

It’s counterintuitive until you experience it: more frequent reporting makes the data less significant.

Shifting from quarterly to annual doesn’t reduce the focus on short-term earnings management – it intensifies it. Think Christmas: If earnings come out only once a year, it becomes a huge event filled with hoopla and volatility. Even twice a year becomes a hyper-focused earnings-management festival.

The last time I addressed this was in 2018, during President Trump’s first term. As I exhorted the SEC:

“Report earnings monthly, with the goal of eventually moving to a near real-time, daily, fundamental update. Technology is improving to the point where business intelligence software and big data analyses will make this automated. Indeed, some companies already do much of this internally.” (emphasis added)

My frame of reference was the asset management shop I worked at in the late 2000s and early 2010s. I saw firsthand what the pressure of quarterly reporting does to a company that only issues its performance report four times a year. Regardless of whether we led or lagged the benchmark S&P 500 Index, the phones and emails would light up with questions.

That focus on the numbers every three months was an unhealthy obsession among clients and employees alike.

When we launched our firm in 2013, we worked with several partners (Custodians, Analytics, Reporting, etc.) to give every client real-time access to see exactly how they were doing, whenever they wanted. The only caveat we gave them: “You now have 24/7 access to see your returns, tick-by-tick — but please don’t, it will make you crazy.”

For the most part, this completely defused the hoopla around performance reporting.

The state of Artificial Intelligence today can do the same thing for the heightened focus on quarterly earnings reports for Corporate America. Back in the 2010s, Artificial Intelligence was in its “IBM Watson playing Jeopardy” era. We were pre-Claude, pre-Gemini, pre-ChatGPT, pre-Grok, and pre-Perplexity. Today, AI is something everyone carries around in their pockets.

This is not unknown territory. In 2014, the United Kingdom dropped its reporting requirements from quarterly to semi-annual; it saw no benefit. There was no increase in long-term investments after mandatory quarterly reports were dropped.1

Less frequent disclosure only widens the information asymmetry between insiders and investors; we will see even more insider trading as non-public information becomes more valuable. Price discovery will deteriorate even further than it already has. Instead of unpredictability, markets will experience regular tsunamis of volatility.

If we really want to end this sort of short-termism, companies should unilaterally stop giving guidance. The entire gamesmanship of beating last quarter’s company earnings guidance would come screeching to a halt.

The owners of corporate America, aka public shareholders, have the right to know how well the companies they own are doing. This includes basic information such as sales, revenue, and profits. The goal shouldn’t be to make public companies look like private ones. If anything, we should aim to generate more information about private and public companies so that investors can make informed decisions about risk.

This can be implemented gradually: the first companies that volunteer to move to monthly, then weekly, and then real-time are given safe harbor protection from the SEC (for a short period) against shareholder litigation. Eventually, over a 5-ish-year period, all companies move earnings reports to real time.

The recent blowups in private credit illustrate what happens when reporting is less frequent, transparency is lacking, and information exchange between those managing these firms and their owners or investors is highly limited. Private-credit managers, BDCs, interval/tender funds, and flagship private-credit vehicles have experienced notable redemptions, markdowns, defaults, and even portfolio blow-ups over the last couple of years. It is not a coincidence that these private companies report to their shareholders annually.

The idea of automating the process of reporting earnings in real time seemed fantastical a decade ago. Today, it is no longer unimaginable – it has become obvious.

 

 

Previously:
Report Earnings Daily (Bloomberg, August 20, 2018)

 

 

 

__________

1. Impact of Reporting Frequency on UK Public Companies by Robert Pozen, Suresh Nallareddy, and Shivaram Rajgopal

We studied the effects of these regulatory changes on UK public companies and found that the frequency of financial reports had no material impact on levels of corporate investment. However, mandatory quarterly reporting was associated with an increase in analyst coverage and an improvement in the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts.”

 

 

 

 

~~~~~

AI DISCLOSURE: I wrote this myself. I used CHatGBT to generate the graphics;  Claude to research various proposals, and Google Gemini to identify issues with UK changes in earnings reporting

 

The post Artificial Intelligence and Quarterly Earnings Reports appeared first on The Big Picture.

Why Bernie Sanders Is Wrong About Gas Prices

Authored by Robert Rapier via OilPrice.com,

• Gasoline prices can diverge sharply from crude oil prices due to refining and logistical constraints.

• Tight refinery capacity and geopolitical disruptions have created bottlenecks throughout the fuel supply chain.

• Policies that discourage energy infrastructure investment could worsen future fuel price volatility.

When lawmakers propose solutions to complex economic problems, the first requirement should be a clear understanding of how those problems actually work.

A recent Facebook post by Bernie Sanders comparing today’s oil and gasoline prices to those in 2011 suggests that oil companies are “ripping off” consumers.

The logic is straightforward: if oil prices are roughly the same, gasoline prices should be as well. If they aren’t, someone must be taking advantage.

It’s an intuitive argument, but it misses important elements of the story.

Although gasoline prices have a high degree of correlation with crude oil prices, there are many reasons those prices can diverge. Gasoline is a manufactured product that sits at the end of a long, complex, and often strained supply chain. Focusing only on the price of a barrel of oil ignores the physical realities that determine what consumers ultimately pay at the pump.

From Crude to Gasoline: A System Under Strain

The price of crude oil is only the starting point. Between the wellhead and the gas station lies a network of refineries, pipelines, storage terminals, and transportation systems.

When that system is operating smoothly, the relationship between oil and gasoline prices is relatively stable. When it isn’t, the two can diverge significantly.

That is exactly what we are seeing today.

The Refining Constraint Most People Miss

One of the biggest differences between 2011 and today is refining capacity.

Over the past decade, the U.S. and parts of Europe have lost meaningful refining capacity due to closures, conversions to renewable fuels, and underinvestment. At the same time, demand has rebounded strongly following the COVID-19 pandemic.

The result is a system that is running with very little slack. Refinery utilization rates are often in the mid-90% range. At those levels, even minor disruptions can have an outsized impact.

This is where the concept of the “crack spread” comes into play. It reflects the margin refiners earn by turning crude oil into gasoline and diesel. When capacity is tight, those margins expand. That can push gasoline prices higher even if crude oil prices remain relatively stable.

In other words, you can have plenty of oil available and still face high fuel prices because the bottleneck is not supply of crude, but the ability to process it.

War Doesn’t Just Raise Prices. It Disrupts Systems

The current geopolitical environment adds another layer of complexity.

Conflicts in key regions, including tensions involving the Strait of Hormuz, do not simply raise oil prices. They disrupt logistics. Shipping routes change. Insurance costs rise. Delivery times increase. Supply chains become less efficient.

Refineries are also highly specialized. They are designed to process specific grades of crude oil. When geopolitical disruptions force a shift in sourcing, refiners may have to run less optimal feedstocks, which can reduce the yield of gasoline per barrel. This is also what happened following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which resulted in skyrocketing diesel and gasoline prices. 

These are mechanical, physical constraints. They act like a hidden tax on the system, increasing the cost of producing and delivering fuel even if the headline price of crude oil appears unchanged.

This Isn’t New. It’s Just Misunderstood

The divergence between oil and gasoline prices is not a new phenomenon.

After Hurricane Katrina in 2005, for example, crude oil prices softened because refineries were offline and couldn’t process available supply. At the same time, gasoline prices surged due to shortages of finished fuel.

The lesson is simple: the energy system behaves like a chain. If one link breaks or tightens, the entire system adjusts. Prices reflect those constraints.

What we are seeing today is a similar dynamic, driven not by a hurricane but by geopolitical disruption and structural changes in refining capacity.

Profits Are the Result, Not the Cause

It is true that energy companies are reporting strong profits. But those profits are largely a consequence of high prices, not the underlying cause of them.

When supply is constrained, and demand remains strong, prices rise. When prices rise, profits follow.

That distinction is important. If high prices were simply the result of companies choosing to charge more, the solution would be straightforward. But when prices are driven by physical constraints, logistical friction, and global market dynamics, the problem is far more complex.

The Risk of Misdiagnosing the Problem

Policies like windfall profits taxes are often proposed as a response to high energy prices. But if the diagnosis is wrong, the prescription can make the situation worse.

Discouraging investment in refining and midstream infrastructure does not lower prices. It tightens capacity further, increasing the likelihood of future price spikes.

If the goal is to bring down fuel costs, the focus should be on improving system capacity, reducing bottlenecks, and stabilizing supply chains.

The Bottom Line

Comparing oil prices across time periods without accounting for the broader system leads to misleading conclusions.

Gasoline prices are shaped by far more than the cost of crude. Refining capacity, logistics, geopolitics, and infrastructure constraints all play critical roles.

If policymakers want to address high fuel prices effectively, they must start with a clear understanding of those realities.

Because in energy markets, as in economics more broadly, getting the diagnosis right is the first step toward getting the solution right.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 14:25

Trump Wants To Slash Child Care Costs By Getting Government Out Of The Way

Child care in America has become a significant financial burden. For many families, it now rivals rent, a mortgage, or student loan payments.

Democrats have been framing child care as a key issue for them heading into the midterms. “Child care continues to get more expensive," said Jaelin O'Halloran, a DNC spokesperson. "While Trump and Republicans have offered no plans to follow through on their promises to lower costs, Democrats are focused on bringing down costs and making life more affordable for working families." 

"House Republicans are waging a war on the American family — slashing food assistance for kids, health care for families, and billions in education programs," said DCCC spokesperson Aidan Johnson. "The DCCC will ensure voters remember that when they head to the polls this November."

The problem with the Democratic argument is structural: their solutions boil down to subsidies to make things more “affordable.” 

The Trump administration thinks that's precisely the wrong prescription and has proposed a plan that largely relies on deregulation rather than subsidies.

The Administration for Children and Families (ACF) at the Department of Health and Human Services is rolling out a sweeping package of new rules and guidance to expand child care choices and reduce costs by streamlining regulations. A notice of proposed rulemaking tied to the effort is set to be finalized within the week, and governors and state legislatures are receiving letters urging them to implement the reforms in ways that directly benefit local families.

The administration frames the effort as a direct response to what one White House official calls a "major cost crunch" facing families with young children. The approach is deregulatory by design, targeting the thicket of compliance requirements, credentialing mandates, and licensing barriers that drive up operating costs for providers — costs that ultimately land on parents.

Another change involves teacher qualification standards. In this new plan, degree and credit-hour requirements for child care workers will be eliminated and replaced with competency-based standards. So instead of academic credentials, the abilities and skills of child care providers will matter.Mandatory staff-to-child ratios and group-size limits will also be loosened, with those decisions given back to parents. The underlying logic is straightforward: regulations that force uniformity inflate costs while locking out anyone who can't afford to comply.

That's particularly true for smaller, faith-based providers. The guidance specifically targets licensing restrictions that have effectively shut out community- and church-based operations, putting them on an unequal footing with large center-based programs. A White House official described current licensing rules as a form of regulatory capture - one that benefits big providers with access to capital and labor while "boxing out" faith-based providers that lack comparable resources. The administration's stated goal is to put faith-based and home-based providers on equal footing with institutional alternatives.

The broader vision is simple: put money in parents’ hands and let them decide. Rather than routing federal dollars into government-approved, center-based programs where bureaucrats pick the winners, the administration wants to expand voucher use — demand-side financing that forces providers to compete for families instead of for contracts. When providers compete, prices fall. When parents choose, quality rises. 

“We want to encourage choice and competition for parents through the promotion of voucherization, and we want to ensure that to the maximum extent possible, faith-based and community neighborhood-based providers, including home-based providers, are able to participate in these programs on equal footing,” the White House official said.

The package includes options for families who don't want institutional child care at all. Under current Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) rules, married couples face stricter work requirements than single parents. This quirk can effectively penalize low-income married couples for having one parent stay home. ACF will clarify through subregulatory guidance that married couples may share TANF work requirements, making it easier for one spouse to reduce hours or step back from work without running afoul of federal rules. 

"There are a lot of families, particularly low-income families, who may not necessarily want to drop their child off at a center-based child care provider, or any child care provider, and would prefer to stay at home," the White House official said. "We're trying to increase the amount of flexibility that low-income families can receive to have a part- or full-time stay-at-home parent to watch their child within the home."

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 14:05

American Bankers Attempt Last Ditch Effort To Kill Crypto Market Structure Bill Regarding Stablecoins

American Bankers Association (ABA) CEO Rob Nichols sent an emergency Sunday letter to every bank CEO in the country, urging “immediate engagement” against what he called a stablecoin yield loophole in the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, days before a Senate Banking Committee markup scheduled for Thursday.

The letter, dated May 11 — Mother’s Day — and addressed to ABA member bank CEOs, asked bank leaders to contact their senators and mobilize their employees to do the same before the committee convenes for a scheduled May 14 executive session on the bill.

“I am reaching out to make every bank leader in this country aware of an urgent advocacy fight that requires your immediate engagement,” Nichols wrote, according to the letter.

He warned that, without further changes, “we believe the current proposal would unnecessarily incentivize the flight of bank deposits into payment stablecoins, putting both economic growth and financial stability at risk”.

The timing of the letter drew sharp public pushback from Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal, who posted on X that the ABA’s alarm bells were misplaced.

“Maybe the CEO didn’t get the message from the people actually in the room at the WH in meeting after meeting,” Grewal wrote.

“We’ve already had ‘immediate engagement.’ You got ‘idle yield’ killed. I know because I was there — you weren’t. Take yes for an answer. Move on. Stop wasting the time of the Senate and the American people.”

Sen. Bernie Moreno, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, fired back at the ABA in a social media post, saying “the banking cartel in full panic mode” and accusing it of deceiving lawmakers by characterizing stablecoin yield as a “loophole” - a term he said was an insult to the bipartisan work already done during the GENIUS Act debate. 

As Micah Zimmerman reports for BitcoinMagazine.com, the ABA's emergency outreach came just hours after the Senate Banking Committee has set May 14 as the date for its long-delayed markup of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, the most consequential piece of cryptocurrency legislation ever to reach this stage in Congress, as a last-minute lobbying blitz from major banks and a Democratic ethics standoff threaten to derail the bill before it clears committee.

The executive session is scheduled for 10:30 a.m. at Room 538 of the Dirksen Senate Office Building in Washington, D.C., where committee members will debate amendments and vote on whether to advance the legislation to the full Senate floor. Committee Chairman Tim Scott (R-SC) confirmed the date last week, and live video feed of the proceedings will be available to the public.

The CLARITY Act — formally H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 — passed the House of Representatives on July 17, 2025, by a 294–134 bipartisan vote, with all 216 Republicans in support and 78 Democrats crossing the aisle. Since then, the bill has stalled in the Senate through two cancelled markup sessions, extended negotiations over stablecoin regulation, and an intensifying lobbying fight between the crypto industry and the traditional banking sector.

At its core, the legislation would draw a regulatory boundary between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, settling years of jurisdictional litigation over whether digital assets are securities or commodities. 

Under the bill, the CFTC would receive exclusive jurisdiction over spot and cash markets for “digital commodities” — tokens intrinsically linked to a functioning, decentralized blockchain — while the SEC retains authority over investment contract assets and primary market fundraising.

Stablecoins are carved out as a separate category under shared oversight.

Crypto jurisdiction fight reaches the U.S. Senate

The Senate version of the bill expanded well beyond the House text, growing to nine titles covering decentralized finance protections, illicit finance provisions, bankruptcy safeguards for crypto customers, and the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, which provides safe harbors for software developers.

The May 14 session marks the Senate’s first formal committee vote on CLARITY after months of procedural slippage. Committee Chairman Scott had originally targeted September 2025 for a Senate floor vote, then moved the goalposts to the end of 2025, and most recently told Fox Business he hoped to bring the bill to the Senate floor by June or July 2026.

The calendar pressure is severe: if the bill does not clear the Senate Banking Committee before the May 21 Memorial Day recess, the entire process resets — and Senators Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) and Bernie Moreno (R-OH) have both warned that failure before Memorial Day could push the next viable legislative window to 2030 or beyond.

The White House has set July 4 as its target for a presidential signature.

The banking industry’s failing crypto lobby

The banking industry has spent months arguing that even partial stablecoin yield — particularly when routed through exchanges and third-party platforms rather than issuers directly — could trigger massive deposit outflows from federally insured banks.

A joint fact sheet released by the ABA, Bank Policy Institute, Consumer Bankers Association, Financial Services Forum, and Independent Community Bankers of America cited a Treasury Department report estimating that stablecoins could lead to as much as $6.6 trillion in deposit outflows if yield is permitted.

That figure faces pushback from within the executive branch. The White House Council of Economic Advisers released a report in April finding that prohibiting stablecoin yield “would do very little to protect bank lending,” estimating that a ban would increase bank lending by only 0.02%. The ABA objected to that report’s findings within days of its release.

Nichols sent a separate joint letter with 52 state bankers associations to Congress in December urging lawmakers to close the yield loophole, and the ABA joined those same groups in a similar letter to the OCC in April.

The Senate Banking Committee markup on May 14 represents a critical procedural hurdle for the Clarity Act. Even if the bill clears the committee, it still requires 60 votes on the Senate floor, reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture Committee’s version, alignment with the House-passed bill from July 2025, and a presidential signature. 

The White House has set a July 4 target for the bill’s passage.

Democrats threaten withdrawal of CLARITY Act as heavy-hitters chime in

The bill carries heavyweight backing from within the Trump administration. SEC Chair Paul Atkins publicly urged Congress on April 9 to move CLARITY to President Trump’s desk, stating that both the SEC and CFTC stand ready to implement the law the moment it is signed. Atkins has cited a project he calls “Project Crypto” as an internal agency readiness effort.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent published an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal framing the CLARITY Act as a national security matter, warning that without U.S. regulatory certainty, blockchain developers and crypto companies continue to migrate to Singapore and Abu Dhabi. White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt has described the stablecoin yield compromise as closed.

Senator Lummis, who chairs the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, posted a single word on X after the Senate returned from Easter recess — “Clarity.” Speaking at the Bitcoin Conference in late April, she was direct: “We are gonna markup the CLARITY Act in May. We are gonna get it to the finish line. We are gonna have the market structure that allows us to innovate.”

Meanwhile, Democrats are threatening to withhold support unless the bill includes ethics provisions targeting crypto holdings by public officials, a demand Republicans argue could derail the legislation entirely. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 13:45

The post Citizens United, Buckley v. Valejo, and Media Ownership: Turning Money into Power appeared first on CEPR.

Target Hospitality Jumps As Data Center Boom Fuels Demand For Worker Camps

Target Hospitality shares jumped in premarket trading after the company announced a new contract to provide mobile housing solutions and related hospitality services for workers at data center construction projects.

The 48-month contract could generate upward of $750 million in revenue for Target Hospitality, which builds, owns, leases, and operates large temporary or semi-permanent "communities" for workers of major projects. The contract covers 3,370 beds.

Historically, Target Hospitality generated revenue from energy, natural resources, and government-related customers, but since the data center buildout boom, its temporary housing solution services have been in high demand.

The company said that since the start of the year, it has announced over $1.4 billion in multi-year contracts amid data center buildouts, representing more than 9,000 beds.

"These awards reinforce the scale, customer relevance and capital-efficient deployment capabilities of Target Hyper/Scale, while strengthening Target's exposure to long-duration demand across AI-driven data center and related critical infrastructure development," the company wrote in a press release.

CEO Brad Archer wrote in a statement that the company is "entering the next phase of our growth with strong momentum and increasing confidence in our long‑term strategy. Since February 2025, we have secured more than $2.0 billion of multi‑year contracts, including approximately $1.8 billion within our rapidly expanding WHS segment, meaningfully enhancing revenue visibility, supporting consistent cash flows and driving improved margin contributions. These wins position Target to further expand its presence across high-value end markets with long-term momentum."

In premarket trading, Target Hospitality is up nearly 10%. On the year, the stock has surged 91%, as of Friday's close.

To frame Target Hospitality in an easy-to-understand way for investors: It is creating mobile camps for workers on data center projects.

And likely to see more contracts given hyperscalers will spend an estimated $700 billion in capex this year…

The other read here is that the data center boom is hitting the real economy, whether through mobile worker camps in this case, power solutions (read the CAT report), or a long list of other areas. About one year ago, UBS outlined that the data center boom would filter into the real economy in the first half of 2026 (read here).

Just imagine if the Harris regime and Democrats were in power. They would likely have slowed data center buildouts, and the US economy would have entered an economic downturn.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 13:30

ASP Isotopes Subsidiary Signs MOU With European Nuclear Technology Company For Fuel Supply

ASP Isotopes said its subsidiary Quantum Leap Energy LLC has signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with an unnamed European nuclear technology company to explore a potential long-term partnership to supply fuel for advanced nuclear reactors, according to a company press release Monday morning. 

The agreement focuses on high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU), a type of nuclear fuel enriched to more than 10% uranium-235 that is expected to play a key role in powering next-generation reactors. Under the proposed arrangement, the European company would provide uranium feedstock to Quantum Leap Energy’s planned conversion and enrichment facilities, where it would be processed into HALEU and potentially deconverted before being delivered back to the partner.

The PR says that the companies said they will conduct technical and economic assessments to determine whether a long-term commercial partnership is viable. Those evaluations will examine production scalability, operational requirements, costs, and potential business models.

The memorandum runs through Dec. 31, 2030, though either party can terminate it earlier. It also includes preliminary estimates for HALEU supply volumes, with potential deliveries beginning in 2028 and increasing through 2036 in line with the European company’s reactor development schedule.

The deal comes as governments and nuclear developers race to secure new sources of HALEU amid concerns over limited global supply and geopolitical risks tied to existing nuclear fuel supply chains. Industry leaders have warned that expanding enrichment capacity — particularly in the U.S. and allied markets — will be critical to supporting the rollout of advanced nuclear technologies.

Recall we wrote last month that ASPI was working to provide timely relief for the global helium shortage.

In a research note from Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas last month, he highlighted the company’s Virginia Gas Project in South Africa as a potential new source of supply just as Qatar’s helium exports face major disruption.

The warning came shortly after we reported on Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex damage and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which together threaten roughly one-third of global helium output. Helium remains essential for semiconductor manufacturing, MRI machines, aerospace systems, and quantum computing. It has no practical substitute in chip fabrication, where it cools wafers and detects microscopic leaks.

ASP Isotopes’ Virginia Gas Project stands out because of its unusually high helium concentrations. The 1,870 sq. km deposit averages 3.4% helium, with peaks reaching 12%. That compares with Qatar’s typical 0.01% and the U.S. average of 0.35%.

As we discussed last month, Phase 1 drilling wrapped up four months ahead of schedule in March 2026. Production is scheduled to begin in late 2026, delivering 58 MCF per day of helium alongside LNG. 

Phase 2, targeted for completion around 2030, would scale output to 895 MCF per day. Using conservative pricing of $380 per MCF, Canaccord estimates Phase 1 revenue near $20 million annually and Phase 2 above $285 million.

The project benefits from U.S. International Development Finance Corporation backing and is located in a geopolitically neutral jurisdiction.

ASP Isotopes now faces the standard execution challenges of moving from drilling to full commercial output, but the asset positions the company as one of the few near-term Western-aligned sources capable of adding meaningful new supply.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 12:05

Parabolic Semiconductor Rally Is Pricing In 2028 Already

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The parabolic semiconductor rally crossed a line this week. SOXX, the iShares Semiconductor ETF, closed Friday at $509.77 after touching a fresh intraday high of $511.68. That’s a gain of roughly 244% from the April 2025 low of $148.31. Most of that move has been compressed into the last two months alone. Since mid-March, SOXX has tacked on another 58%. The chart is now textbook parabolic. And parabolic charts almost never end politely.

If you wanted a real-time stress test of how fragile this move is, you got one this week. Semiconductors took a -2.86% hit on Thursday on softer Iran headlines, with Broadcom and Micron dragging. By Friday’s open, the dip was already being bought aggressively. A stronger-than-expected April jobs report (115,000 vs. 65,000 expected) and renewed peace-deal optimism sent the Nasdaq up 1.71% on the day, with SOXX printing a new intraday high before the close. That’s not a market digesting risk. That’s a market refusing to take “no” for an answer.

I’ve watched this movie before. After 30 years of cycles, the ending is rarely a surprise. The setup, however, is almost always sold as “this time is different.” It isn’t. In fact, every parabolic semiconductor rally in modern memory has ended the same way, and there’s no reason to expect a kinder math this round.

Where The Parabolic Semiconductor Rally Stands Today

Start with the math, because it’s doing the talking. SOXX is currently trading 62% above its 200-day moving average and 34% above its 50-day. Readings that stretched are the back end of a move, not the middle. The slope of the advance has steepened in each successive month. That is the signature of a momentum trade pulling in late buyers, not of fundamentals catching up to price.

Look across the complex, and the dispersion is striking. Micron is up nearly 1,000% off its April 2025 low. AMD is up roughly 450%. Nvidia, the index’s anchor, is up “only” 140%. Notably, the stocks that crashed hardest a year ago have rallied the most in the recovery. That’s exactly how late-cycle chase trades behave. The trash leads the way up because it has the largest short position to cover and the most leverage to a narrative. In other words, this parabolic semiconductor rally is now being driven by the names with the worst fundamentals, not the best.

Notice in the chart above how the slope of the advance has steepened in each successive month. The early move off the April low was a recovery. The middle was a trend. What we have now is something else.

Real Demand Or A Speculative Frenzy?

I get the bull case. AI capex is real. Hyperscaler orders are real. Foundry utilization is real. Nvidia, Broadcom, and TSMC are delivering numbers that justify premium multiples. So far, so good. The shortage narrative around HBM memory and leading-node capacity has actual data to back it up, and that’s the part of the story bulls keep pointing to.

However, here is the problem with the current setup. A real fundamental story doesn’t require a parabolic chart to validate it. In fact, fundamentals tend to drag prices up the trend line, not push them through the ceiling. When a “shortage” narrative arrives at the same moment that the worst-quality names in the sector are leading the index higher, that’s not fundamentals at work. That’s the narrative being recycled to justify a move that has already happened. Indeed, the parabolic semiconductor rally we’re seeing right now bears almost none of the hallmarks of a fundamentals-led advance.

Look at the dispersion again. If this were a shortage-driven, fundamentals-led rally, the leaders would be the names with the cleanest demand visibility. Instead, the laggards from a year ago are the runaway winners. Micron up 1,000%. AMD up 450%. Nvidia, the company that actually owns the AI capex story, up “only” 140%. Quality is being left behind because the chase is no longer about earnings. It’s about beta.

Here’s the part that should bother bulls the most. SOXX is trading at multiples that already reflect strong 2026 earnings. The current rally has likely already fully priced in 2026 earnings. From here, you are paying for 2027 and 2028 growth in a sector where the cycle has not been repealed. Semiconductors are still cyclical. Always have been. The day the AI capex cycle hiccups, even briefly, is the day this chart breaks.

Make no mistake, the rally has been spectacular. The exit will be too. Importantly, we have decades of data on what happens when speculative momentum compresses years of expected returns into months. The pattern is remarkably consistent across asset classes and across decades. As a result, the path forward for this parabolic semiconductor rally is not a mystery, even if the timing is.

The consistent thread is that parabolic charts don’t unwind through gentle rotation. They snap. The exit is faster than the entry, and the stocks that led the rally on the way up tend to lead the carnage on the way down. The investors most hurt are not the ones who avoided the move entirely. They’re the ones who showed up late, on the back of the same shortage narratives that are now circulating around semiconductors.

Recovery time is the part most investors underestimate. Cisco, the poster child of the dot-com semiconductor adjacency, only reclaimed its March 2000 peak on December 10, 2025. That’s 25 years, 8 months, and 13 days from peak to recovery. The business kept growing throughout. Earnings kept compounding. Revenues nearly quintupled. The stock simply paid forward too many years of growth at the top, and the math demanded a quarter century to absorb the excess.

Anyone who bought at the 2000 peak earned a nominal break-even after factoring in dividends, but lost meaningfully to inflation along the way. That’s not a recovery story. That’s a generational opportunity cost. ARKK, which ran +360% into its 2021 peak, still trades below it five years later. Different decades, different assets, but the pattern holds. Speculative tops resolve through painful, prolonged drawdowns, not graceful rotations.

The Risk Management Playbook

So what do you actually do? Of course, the answer depends on whether you’ve ridden this rally or you’re staring at the chart wondering if it’s too late to participate. Honestly, the answer for most investors is the same in either case. You don’t have to be all-in or all-out. You just can’t let the position size make the decision for you.

Here is the playbook we’re using for clients right now. First, five points if you’re already invested. Then, two if you’re not.

The Bottom Line

The semiconductor rally has been one of the most extraordinary moves of the post-COVID era. The fundamentals supporting the early stages of the move were real. The fundamentals supporting the most recent leg are increasingly imaginary. SOXX has likely fully priced in 2026 earnings already, and the stocks leading the index higher are no longer the ones with the cleanest demand stories.

Of course, parabolic charts rarely give back gracefully. Cisco, oil, silver, and ARKK all showed that exits come faster than entries, and recovery can take years to decades. The parabolic semiconductor rally has been spectacular. The exit will be too. The question isn’t whether the chart cools off. The question is whether you’ve prepared your portfolio for it before it does.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 11:45

"You Just Can't Earn A Billion Dollars": AOC Declares Billionaires To Be A Capitalist Myth

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

This week, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) came up with the best reason to tax billionaires: They do not actually exist.

On a podcast, Ocasio-Cortez declared with all the certainty of a freshman in a Smith College political science course that the notion of a self-made billionaire is simply a fantasy, because “you just can’t earn” a billion dollars. It is only the latest in a series of socialist fables that are being dressed up as economic facts.

The difference is that this fable, if told often enough, could become true.

In suggesting that true billionaires are a capitalist myth, Ocasio-Cortez is suggesting that people like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos really did not earn their wealth and, therefore, it is really not their money.

“There’s a certain level of wealth and accumulation that is unearned. You can’t earn a billion dollars. You just can’t earn that. You can get market power, you can break rules, you can abuse labor laws, you can pay people less than what they’re worth, but you can’t earn that.”

In other words, you can only make a billion dollars through theft and exploitation rather than actual entrepreneurial enterprise. This statement comes as support builds for the California billionaires’ tax which, even before it has a chance to pass in November, has already cost the state trillions due to an exodus of these billionaires.

In my book, “Rage and the Republic,” I discuss common myths spread by the left to fuel economic factionalism.

One common myth is that the “wealthy do not pay their fair share of taxes.” In truth, the top ten percent of taxpayers pay the vast majority of taxes in the U.S. In the book, I also dispel the claim that most millionaires inherited their wealth or came from privileged backgrounds.

These myths are designed to make redistribution schemes more palatable. And Democrats are ramping up the “eat-the-rich” rhetoric ahead of the midterms in pushing both millionaire and billionaire taxes. Democrats from Washington to Virginia are pushing millionaire taxes, and the mere conversation has already set off a stampede of high-earning taxpayers to red states like Texas and Florida, which have no state income tax.

It was also evident in this week’s California gubernatorial debate. Candidate Katie Porter (D) said she opposes the billionaire’s tax because it would not go far enough. Porter then pressed the only billionaire in the group, Tom Steyer, who has been moving to the far left to grab voters in the wake of the departure of former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) as a candidate. Steyer said that he supports the billionaire tax but would want to go even further.

Steyer has spent a fortune of his own money on this race, apparently to convince Democratic primary voters that he is some kind of red billionaire in the mold of a George Soros or Neville Roy Singham. Good luck with that — after spending roughly $150 million of his own money, Steyer is still languishing between 12 and 18 percent support.

Of course, Steyer was not asked if he believes that real billionaires such as himself exist. Yet he has already apologized for making considerable money on private prisons, including those used to hold undocumented immigrants.

Ironically, in finance, a “unicorn” is a company worth more than $1 billion dollars, a term coined by venture capitalist Aileen Lee to capture the rare and almost magical status of such enterprises.

Conversely, Ocasio-Cortez’s unicorn myth is part of a general denial of economic realities that has taken hold on the left. The cost of these policies is borne by workers, who are being left to eat soundbites.

Democrats have sold voters on raising minimum wages as high as $30 per hour, even though such policies cost thousands of jobs. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg bragged about blocking a merger of JetBlue and Spirit Airlines, claiming that it would create cheaper flights and better jobs. Spirit has now been forced to close its doors, causing the loss of thousands of flights and jobs.

A rising generation of voters is eagerly devouring soundbites and promises of the “warmth of collectivism” from figures like New York’s socialist mayor, Zohran Mamdani. From promises of free buses to state-run grocery stores, voters are buying the same threadbare socialist schtick.

That was on display this week as socialist Seattle mayor Katie Wilson laughed when asked about the millionaires fleeing the city over rising taxes and crime. She delighted the crowd by mocking the departing millionaires with two words: “Like, bye!”

The last laugh, however, rests with those fleeing a city facing a projected deficit of $114 million. As Wilson faces major cuts in the city budget, she gleefully mocks those whose tax dollars the city will desperately need to close this gap if it is to maintain public services.

Ironically, Wilson and other Democrats are quickly making their myth a reality. Soon, there will be no billionaire unicorns roaming the land.

Even millionaires may become scarce, as these wealthy citizens move to less hostile states with less delusional leaders.

The solution to this exodus is equally predictable. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who has campaigned for a billionaire tax in his state while representing Silicon Valley, has also joined with socialist Bernie Sanders to push for a national billionaire’s tax — an effort to guarantee that there is no place to hide. This is the same approach that tanked the French economy under François Mitterrand after the wealthy fled that nation.

This is not, however, a time for economics or history. It is the time of fables. Ocasio-Cortez has thrived in the land of socialist unicorns.

She can even attend the ultra-rich Met Gala wearing an expensive “Tax-the-Rich” gown.

Like her dress, it is fashionable to deny that billionaires created their wealth. It is your money for the taking.

The result is that billionaires and even millionaires in states like New York may go the way of unicorns, fanciful creatures that once thrived in a land of jobs and growth.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.“

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 10:35

Aramco CEO Says Energy Market May Not Normalize Until 2027 Amid Billion-Barrel Supply Shock

From the Trump administration's recent Project Freedom push to mounting warnings from Wall Street analysts, security experts, energy strategists, and major oil company executives, there is a growing sense that the global energy market is quickly approaching a breaking point due to the heavily disrupted Strait of Hormuz.

There was good news over the weekend, as a Qatari LNG tanker transited the Hormuz chokepoint. However, a second tanker from the energy-rich Gulf country abruptly made a U-turn in the Strait early Monday, dashing hopes for any near-term normalization, especially since the U.S. and Iran have yet to reach a peace deal.

The countdown to global energy chaos is increasingly viewed in weeks, not months. If the maritime chokepoint remains impaired for the next several weeks, according to Frederic Lasserre, head of research at Gunvor, one of the world's largest oil traders, then the "tipping point to something has to give is June."

Warnings of incoming energy market turmoil continued on Monday, with the CEO of Aramco, formerly known as the Saudi Arabian Oil Company. Amin Nasser warned that the market could lose around 100 million barrels of oil each week if Hormuz remains closed.

Nasser told investors on an earnings call earlier today that if the Hormuz chokepoint is disrupted for another couple of weeks, then it would take the global energy market until 2027 to normalize. 

Here are the most important comments from Nasser's call with the analyst:

• Energy Supply Shock Is Largest Ever Experienced

• It'll Take Months for Oil Market to Rebalance Even If Hormuz Reopens Today

• Market to Normalize in 2027 if Hormuz Opening Is Delayed by Few More Weeks

• Market Has Seen Supply Loss of About 1 Billion Barrel of Oil

• Alternative Flows Bypassing Hormuz, Strategic Reserve Releases Partially offset that

• Market Could Lose Around 100 Mln Barrels of Oil For Every Week

• Demand Rationing to Continue As Long As Supply Remains Disrupted

• Return to Demand Growth Expected to Be Robust If Trade Resumes

• Demand Growth to Be Driven by Urgency to Ensure Security of Supply

• Supply Chains Will Need Several Months to Return to Normal

Building on the countdown-to-energy-chaos theme, Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats warned clients that the oil market is in a "race against time" as the maritime chokepoint remains heavily disrupted. He noted that global supply buffers, which have kept crude prices contained during the ten-week Iran war, are starting to come under pressure.

Rats said that nearly 1 billion barrels have already been lost, yet Brent crude  futures have not exceeded 2022 levels because the market entered the crisis with spare supply buffers and because traders kept assuming Hormuz would reopen.

"The ability of the US to continue this elevated level of exports is hard to gauge but appears under more pressure," the analyst noted, adding, "The United States' 3.8m b/d increase in exports and China's 5.5m b/d cut in imports have shielded the rest of the world from 9.3m b/d of tightness." 

Rats warned, "Even if the Strait reopened tomorrow, the time required to restart fields, repair refineries, and reposition tanker tonnage means the market is on track to lose another billion barrels over the balance of 2026."

In a separate note, JPMorgan's resident commodity expert, Natasha Kaneva, explained where the next phase of the global energy shock could unfold.

Kaneva's chart on global oil inventories is truly shocking.

Read Kaneva's full note here.

Overall, the warnings are piling up. If the maritime chokepoint remains shuttered through this month, real panic may begin then.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 10:15

US Existing Home Sales Disappoint In April, Despite Lower Mortgage Rates

With the Spring selling season already in tatters, existing home sales were expected to rebound in April very modestly (+2.0% MoM) off recent record lows. However, the rebound was far less than expected, up just 0.2% MoM, which left sales of existing homes unchanged YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

Total existing home sales SAAR hover just above 4.00 million homes...

Source: Bloomberg

The NAR report showed the median selling price rose 0.9% from a year earlier to $417,700 last month - the highest for any April on record.

Source: Bloomberg

The inventory of previously owned homes increased from a year ago to 1.47 million - the most for any April since 2019.

Source: Bloomberg

“Even though it’s the highest inventory post-Covid, we are not close to the pre-Covid April inventory of 1.83 million,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said on a call with reporters.

Contract closings rose in the Midwest and South, according to the NAR. They fell to a three-month low in the West.

Finally, it appears home sales are becoming less and less elastic relative to mortgage rates (which had fallen notably during the period of reporting)..

Source: Bloomberg

And, as the chart shows, mortgage rates are recently on the rise again...which will not help the situation at all.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 10:07

"Friendly Local Assassin" Suspect In White House Correspondents' Dinner Shooting Pleads Not Guilty

In a federal courtroom in Washington this morning, 31-year-old Cole Tomas Allen entered a not guilty plea to charges stemming from the April 25 shooting incident at the White House Correspondents’ Association (WHCA) Dinner. The plea sets the stage for a high-profile trial that could determine whether Allen faces life in prison for what authorities describe as an attempted assassination of President Donald Trump.

Allen was tackled by Secret Service after gunfire erupted just outside the ballroom packed with roughly 2,600 attendees - including the President, First Lady Melania Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and numerous Cabinet officials and journalists.

The night of April 25...

Around 8:36 p.m. EDT, as dinner service was underway, Allen - armed with a 12-gauge Maverick shotgun, an Armscor Precision .38 semi-automatic pistol, and multiple knives - rushed past a security checkpoint on an upper level of the hotel. He fired at least one shot (reports indicate possible additional rounds) in the direction of law enforcement before being tackled by Secret Service agents and other officers.

One Secret Service agent was struck in his bulletproof vest by buckshot; he was treated and released from the hospital. Allen sustained a knee injury after tripping during the confrontation but was not shot. No bystanders or attendees were injured or killed. President Trump was quickly surrounded by agents and evacuated - 10 seconds after JD Vance, and the dinner was halted and later rescheduled.

Surveillance footage captured the rapid sequence: Allen sprinting with weapons visible, the sound of gunfire, and swift law enforcement response. Allen had checked into the hotel as a guest days earlier, traveling by Amtrak from his home in Torrance, California.

Today, we are releasing video already provided to U.S. District Court showing Cole Allen shoot a U.S. Secret Service officer during his attempt to assassinate the President at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner.

There is no evidence the shooting was the result of friendly… pic.twitter.com/a8gRXkW6BH

— US Attorney Pirro (@USAttyPirro) April 30, 2026

Born April 11, 1995, Allen is a California native with an extensive academic background - earning a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) in 2017 and a master’s in computer science from California State University, Dominguez Hills in 2025. He interned at NASA, worked part-time as a tutor at C2 Education in Torrance (named “Teacher of the Month” in December 2024), and developed video games, including a 'non-violent fighting game' (lol) called Bohrdom that was later removed from Steam following his arrest.

Acquaintances and family described him as highly intelligent, polite, inquisitive, and generally “gentle” or “super stable,” with no prior criminal history. He lived with his parents and siblings, regularly practiced at shooting ranges, and had expressed anti-Trump political views online and in person—including a small donation to Kamala Harris’s 2024 campaign and attendance at protests.

The Manifesto and Alleged Motive

Approximately 10 minutes before the attack, Allen emailed a lengthy note titled "Apology and Explanation" to family members. In it, he apologized for “abusing” their trust and stated he did not expect forgiveness. He exhibited deep hatred of Trump, referring to himself in one passage as the "Friendly Federal Assassin" and outlining an intent to target “administration officials (not including Mr. Patel)” - widely interpreted as sparing FBI Director Kash Patel - from highest-ranking to lowest.

The document criticized specific actions such as federal operations against alleged drug boats and highlighted what Allen perceived as lax security at the hotel and event. Also for some reason FBI Director Kash Patel was not a target. 

Authorities have described the note and related materials recovered from his devices and hotel room as a manifesto reflecting political grievances and a belief that it was his “duty” to act. Investigators are still examining the full scope of his radicalization, but preliminary findings point to targeted political violence rather than random or personal animus.

#WHCD #TRUMP
**Here is the full text of Cole Allen’s manifesto**, as published by the New York Post (1,052 words, signed “Cole ‘coldForce’ ‘Friendly Federal Assassin’ Allen”).
Part: 1/2
---
Hello everybody!
So I may have given a lot of people a surprise today. Let me start off… pic.twitter.com/6brCsHjHoJ

— CosMike (@C0sM1ke) April 27, 2026

Developments

Allen was charged days after the incident with attempting to assassinate the president, assaulting a federal officer with a deadly weapon, and multiple firearms violations (including interstate transportation of a firearm with intent to commit a felony and discharging a firearm during a crime of violence). A federal grand jury later returned a four-count indictment.

He has remained in federal custody in Washington. Early proceedings included concerns over his detention conditions - initially on suicide watch, later removed - prompting a federal magistrate judge to express alarm about his treatment, including reports of five-point restraints, and to demand explanations from jail officials (poor baby!). Allen’s defense team has filed motions, including one seeking the recusal of U.S. Attorney for D.C. Jeanine Pirro, and has highlighted what they describe as unusually harsh conditions compared to other high-profile detainees.

Today’s arraignment before Judge Trevor McFadden was the first formal opportunity for Allen to enter a plea on the indicted charges. With the not guilty plea entered, the case now proceeds toward trial, discovery, and potential pre-trial motions. If convicted on the lead count, Allen could face life imprisonment.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 10:00

Key Events This Week: CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Trump-Xi Summit

As DB's Jim Reid tallies overnight, it has now been 73 days since the war in Iran began, with the past 32 marked by a stalemate characterized by a mix of truce and ongoing ceasefire. The absence of any meaningful kinetic activity for over a month suggests a firm US preference for reaching a deal. However, a counterpoint is that uncertainty over who holds negotiating authority in Iran may be complicating progress and delaying more difficult times ahead. It remains an unusual conflict with little action now for a month. In simple terms though, as long as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, markets remain on a knife edge. Polymarket currently assigns a 39% probability to it fully reopening by 30 June.

The latest is that oil and yields are up again this morning as President Trump has posted that "I have just read the response from Iran's so called 'Representatives'" which he went on to call "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE". This was based on a WSJ report that suggested Iran was offering to transfer some of highly enriched uranium to another country but wouldn't dismantle its nuclear facilities. Iran's official news agency has disputed the report anyway. Brent is up +4.23% and 10yr US yields are up +3.5bps. However, US and European equity futures are largely flat and Asian equities are largely higher on the AI trade. The KOSPI is on fire again with the index up +4.0% as semiconductors surge again. The index has crossed +85% YTD.

This comes ahead of the planned mid-to end week meeting between US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping in Beijing. It’ll be interesting to see whether this meeting does anything to shape negotiations in the war. Both leaders would clearly like to show their influence on the world stage. So certainly the biggest headline event of the week (full preview here).

Before that, the new week arrives with markets still processing last Friday’s US payrolls report, which came in broadly firm and reinforced the view that labor market conditions remain resilient. While not strong enough to decisively alter the policy outlook, the release did little to ease concerns that underlying inflation pressures could persist, especially given still-solid wage dynamics. Against this backdrop, outside of the Iran War developments which will of course take center stage, the coming week will remain centered on the US, with a dense run of data and policy developments.

This week's focal point will be tomorrow’s April CPI report. DB economists expect headline inflation to rise by +0.58% month-on-month, moderating from March’s +0.9%, but still relatively firm. In contrast, the core measure is projected to accelerate to +0.39% MoM from +0.2%, suggesting underlying price pressures remain sticky even as energy-related effects fade. The YoY rates would move from 3.3% to 3.8% for the former and from 2.6% to 2.8% for the latter.

Producer price data follows on Wednesday and then the remainder of the week shifts towards activity indicators. DB economists expect retail sales to decline by -0.3% MoM after March’s strong +1.7% increase, pointing to some payback in consumer spending. Meanwhile, industrial production is forecast to rise modestly by +0.2% MoM following a -0.5% drop previously, suggesting a tentative stabilization in manufacturing output.

Policy and politics will also be important. A Senate vote on Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair is scheduled for today, just days before Jerome Powell’s term is set to expire at the end of the week. It's possible the vote could get pushed back a day or so due to other Senate business but by the end of the week you would expect Warsh to have taken Miran's seat on the board with Powell staying on the committee.

In Europe, inflation readings from Denmark and Norway today are followed with Germany’s ZEW survey tomorrow with sentiment darkening even with the nation's extraordinary fiscal package. Later in the week, the ECB’s economic bulletin may offer additional context on the central bank’s assessment of inflation and activity trends.

In the UK, attention will be split between politics and macro. The State Opening of Parliament and the King’s Speech on Wednesday will outline the government’s legislative agenda for the year ahead. With PM Starmer under tremendous pressure following the very poor (but broadly as expected) local election results on Thursday there is talk of a leadership challenge as soon as today. Backbench MP Catherine West has said she will stand, which would be a stalking horse nomination. However, many left-wing MPs (as she is) have urged her not to as their preferred candidate Andy Burnham is not currently an MP. They fear an election now might be a bit too early and may allow a more moderate candidate like Wes Streeting to prevail. So timing tactics could prolong Starmer’s reign. A reminder that in September last year, Mr Burnham said that the UK should no longer be “in hock to the bond markets”. This caused a spike in Gilt yields and although he subsequently downplayed the remarks, this is something to watch carefully as we navigate the politics of the next few days and weeks. On the data side, Q1 UK GDP on Thursday will offer up the latest state of play growth wise.

In Asia, Japan’s schedule includes household spending data tomorrow, alongside the Economy Watchers survey and bank lending figures on Wednesday. In addition, the Bank of Japan will publish its summary of opinions from the April meeting, which should provide greater insight into policymakers’ thinking and any emerging shifts in the policy stance.

There are multiple appearances from Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ officials throughout the week, and on the corporate front, earnings continue at a steadier pace. In the US, Cisco and Applied Materials are among the key names, while internationally the focus includes major firms such as Tencent, Alibaba, Siemens and Bayer. See the day-by-day calendar at the end as usual for a fuller week ahead preview.

Source: Earnings Whispers

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday May 11

• Data: US April existing home sales, China April CPI, PPI, Denmark April CPI, Norway April CPI
• Earnings: Petroleo Brasileiro, Constellation Energy, Barrick Mining, Compass, AST SpaceMobile
• Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)
• Other: US Senate vote on Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Fed Chair

Tuesday May 12

• Data: US April CPI, federal budget balance, NFIB small business optimism, Japan March household spending, leading index, coincident index, Germany May Zew survey, Italy March industrial production, Eurozone May Zew survey
• Central banks: Fed's Goolsbee speaks, ECB's Dolenc speaks, BoJ Summary of Opinions April MPM
• Earnings: Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, MunichRe, Bayer, Vodafone, Venture Global, On Holding, thyssenkrupp
• Auctions: US 10-yr Notes ($42bn)

Wednesday May 13

• Data: US April PPI, Japan April bank lending, Economy Watchers survey, March BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance, Germany April wholesale price index, March current account balance, Eurozone March industrial production, Q1 employment
• Central banks: Fed's Collins and Kashkari speak, ECB’s Lagarde, Lane and Radev speak, BoE’s Mann speaks
• Earnings: Tencent, Cisco, Alibaba, Siemens, SoftBank, Allianz, Deutsche Telekom, E.ON, RWE, Alstom
• Auctions: US 30-yr Bonds ($25bn)
• Other: UK King’s Speech and the State Opening of Parliament

Thursday May 14

• Data: US April retail sales, import price index, export price index, March business inventories, initial jobless claims, UK April RICS house price balance, Q1 GDP, Japan April M2, M3, Canada April existing home sales, March wholesale sales ex petroleum
• Central banks: Fed's Hammack and Barr speak, BoJ’s Masu speaks, BoE's Pill speaks
• Earnings: Applied Materials, National Grid, Figma
• Other: US President Trump travels to China (through May 15)

Friday May 15

• Data: US May Empire manufacturing index, April industrial production, capacity utilisation, Japan April PPI, April machine tool orders, Italy March general government debt, Canada April housing starts, March international securities transactions, manufacturing sales
• Central banks: Fed Chair Powell’s term ends, ECB’s economic bulletin

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Tuesday and the retail sales report on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including events with Presidents Williams, Goolsbee, Collins, Kashkari, Schmid, and Hammack and Governor Barr on Thursday.

Monday, May 11 

• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, April (GS +3.0%, consensus +2.0%, last -3.6%)

Tuesday, May 12 

• 03:15 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will participate in a monetary policy panel at a conference jointly organized by the Swiss National Bank and the International Monetary Fund in Zurich, Switzerland. A Q&A session is expected. On May 4, Williams said, “The elevated levels of inflation, mixed signals from the labor market, and heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict present an unusual set of circumstances, but the current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to balance the risks to our maximum employment and price stability goals.”
• 08:30 AM CPI (MoM), April (GS +0.58%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.9%); Core CPI (MoM), April (GS +0.31%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); CPI (YoY), April (GS +3.68%, consensus +3.7%, last +3.3%); Core CPI (YoY), April (GS +2.67%, consensus +2.7%, last +2.6%): We estimate a 0.31% increase in April core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would raise the year-over-year rate to 2.67%. We expect mixed autos inflation, reflecting a 0.4% decline in used car prices, a 0.1% increase in new car prices, and a 0.4% increase in the car insurance category. We forecast a jump in the shelter categories—a 0.50% increase in the OER category and a 0.44% increase in the rent category—reflecting the unwind of the downward bias in the index level from missed data collection during the government shutdown. The panel group that should have been sampled in October will be sampled in April and compared to prices from twelve months prior (i.e. April will effectively show two months’ worth of increases). We expect mixed readings for the travel services categories (airfares: +3%; hotels: flat), reflecting signals from alternative price data. We expect diminishing upward pressure from tariffs on categories that are particularly exposed (such as recreation) worth +0.04pp. We estimate a 0.58% rise in headline CPI—reflecting higher food prices (+0.3%) and sharply higher energy prices (+4.6%)—which would raise the year-over-year rate to +3.68% from +3.26%. Our forecast consists of a 0.26% monthly increase in the core PCE price index in April.
• 01:00 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak at the Greater Rockford Chamber of Commerce Luncheon in Rockford, Illinois. A Q&A session is expected. On May 8, during an interview in which he was asked whether inflation is the main danger now given that the labor market appears to have stabilized, Goolsbee responded, “I am optimistic that rates can go down, if we get some progress on inflation, [showing] we are headed back to the 2% inflation, [but] we just haven’t had [progress on inflation] for some time, and that makes me less optimistic.” When asked about the easing bias in the April FOMC statement, Goolsbee responded, “I was always skeptical of the value and appropriateness of using forward guidance [on things] that the committee doesn’t think it is going to do for some number of months or committing to actions well in the future.” 

Wednesday, May 13 

• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, April (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.5%); PPI ex-food and energy, April (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%);
• 11:30 AM Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Susan Collins will give remarks and participate in a fireside chat at the Boston Economic Club. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On May 7, Collins said she preferred to adjust the text of the post-meeting statement to “not be as closely aligned with language that has been associated with the presumption that the next move will be a cut.” She also added, “I do think that there are scenarios in which it would be important to strongly consider a hike.”
• 01:15 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a moderated discussion at a St. Paul Area Chamber event. A Q&A session is expected. On May 7, Kashkari said, “We voted against the forward guidance because we just didn’t want to signal that the next move was likely down.” He also added, “We cannot let elevated inflation be the new normal.”

 
Thursday, May 14 

• 08:30 AM Import price index, April (consensus +1.0%, last +0.8%); Export price index, April (consensus +1.1%, last +1.6%)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 9 (GS 205k, consensus 205k, last 200k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 2 (consensus 1,785k, last 1,766k)
• 08:30 AM Retail sales, April (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.6%, last +1.7%); Retail sales ex-auto, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.6%, last +1.9%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, April (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.6%); Core retail sales, April (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.7%): We estimate core retail sales increased 0.2% in April (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting mixed alternative data and a headwind from potential residual seasonality. We estimate headline retail sales increased 0.2%, reflecting higher gasoline prices but lower auto and food services sales.
• 10:15 AM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will speak on payments innovation and community banking at the Future of Banking Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On April 1, Schmid said, “With inflation already running hot, now is not the time to assume that the inflation from higher oil prices will be transitory.” He also added, “We must remain focused on our headline inflation objective, otherwise, I believe there is a real risk that inflation will get stuck closer to 3 percent than 2 percent in the long run.”
• 01:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will deliver opening remarks at the Cleveland Fed Conversations on Central Banking event. On May 7, Hammack said, “The statement that we put out is that interest rates were on hold, but we have the signal in there that it’s more likely that the next move will be down, [and] I thought that was a little bit misleading, just given my view of where the economy is.” She also added that her “baseline outlook is that interest rates will be on hold for quite some time.”
• 05:30 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will deliver remarks at an event organized by the Money Marketeers of New York University. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On May 5, Barr said, “The duration of the conflict matters a lot, and the longer it goes on, the greater the risk that the inflation we are seeing in these prices becomes embedded in the economy.”
• 05:45 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will participate in a moderated discussion at a conference organized by Moody’s. A Q&A session is expected.

Friday, May 15 

• 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing index, April (consensus +7.5, last +11.0)
• 09:15 AM Industrial production, April (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.5%); Manufacturing production, April (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.1%); Capacity utilization, April (GS 75.8%, consensus 75.8%, last 75.7%): We estimate industrial production increased 0.4% in April, largely reflecting strong natural gas and oil production. We estimate capacity utilization edged up to 75.8%.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 09:35

Khamenei Orders Iran's Army To 'Continue Decisive Operations'

Via The Cradle

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has ordered the country’s forces to continue military operations against the US and Israel, according to a report by Iranian public broadcaster IRIB released Sunday. 

The order came during a meeting between Khamenei and Major General Ali Abdollahi, the commander of the Iranian army's Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters. "During this meeting, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, His Eminence Ayatollah Sayyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, while expressing appreciation for the brave and valiant fighters and the country’s powerful armed forces, issued new directives and guidance for continuing operations and confronting enemies decisively," the report said. 

via AFP

Abdollahi also "presented a report on the readiness of the armed forces" during the meeting, IRIB added. The report comes after two months of speculation and unverified media claims about the Supreme Leader's status. 

Western news outlets like The Guardian and The Times had claimed earlier in the war that Khamenei was in a coma following the US-Israeli strikes that assassinated his father. Reports also claimed that he fled to Russia. 

Mazaher Hosseini, head of protocol in the office of Iran's supreme leader, recently stated that Khamenei was healing from minor injuries he sustained and "is now in complete health."

"Thank God, he is in good health. The enemy is spreading all kinds of rumors and false claims. They want to see him and find him, but people should be patient and not rush. He will speak to you when the time is right," the Iranian official stated.

The IRIB report came a day after CNN cited US intelligence as saying that Khamenei "is playing a critical role in shaping war strategy alongside senior Iranian officials."

It also comes days after Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said he met with the supreme leader. "What struck me most during this meeting was the vision and the humble and sincere approach of the supreme leader of the Islamic Revolution," he said. 

Tehran has sent out its response to a new US proposal for a ceasefire via Pakistan, according to state media. The US has maintained an illegal blockade of Iranian ports since the ceasefire began.

Washington violated the truce days ago by bombing Iran's coast and attacking two vessels. Iranian forces targeted two US military vessels in response. The next day, skirmishes broke out between Iranian and US forces in the Strait of Hormuz.

Spokesperson for the Iranian parliament’s Foreign Policy and National Security Committee, Ebrahim Rezaei, said on Sunday that Tehran will strike US military bases and vessels in response to any new violations from Washington – stressing that "restraint has come to an end."

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 09:20

'Starmer Out' Odds (& Gilt Yields) Rise As Embattled UK PM Vows To 'Prove Doubters Wrong'

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer vowed this morning to fight any bid to topple him, insisting he is “not going to walk away” and claiming that the country would never forgive Labour if it indulged in the “chaos” of a leadership contest.

“I know that people are frustrated by the state of Britain, frustrated by politics, and some people frustrated with me,” Starmer said in London on Monday.

“I know I have my doubters, and I know I need to prove them wrong.”

Starmer is fighting to stay in 10 Downing St. after a drubbing in local election results triggered a wave of Labour MPs to call for his departure.

He had a brief moment of respite on Monday when a former minister, Catherine West, withdrew her threat to force an immediate leadership contest, though she said she’d still push for a timetable for Starmer’s exit.

“I have listened to the prime minister’s speech this morning,” she told the BBC.

“I welcome the renewed energy and ideas. However, I have reluctantly concluded that this morning’s speech was too little too late.”

Starmer’s speech was light on new policy. The prime minister announced the government would legislate to take full ownership of British Steel, which is already under temporary government control. He also announced more investment in education programs like apprenticeships, technical colleges and in special educational needs.

Starmer sharpened his rhetoric against the populist parties who made strong gains at last week’s elections, warning that the country risks going down a “dark path,” as he stood behind a podium that read “Stronger Fairer Britain.”

“We are not just facing dangerous times but dangerous opponents,” he said, name-checking both Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and the Greens’ Zack Polanski.

“If we don’t get this right our country will go down a very dark path.”

Gilts fell, with the 10-year yield rising as much as 8 basis points to the day’s high of 5.00%, while the pound eased against the dollar and the euro.

Meanwhile, despite his vows, Polymarket odds of Starmer being gone by year-end are on the rise...

The call for a September leadership election, which would put it around the same time as Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool, puts pressure on Starmer’s health secretary, Wes Streeting, to decide whether to challenge his boss for the job before other candidates emerge.

Streeting, who is seen as a standard-bearer for the right of the party, is said to be weighing his options. 

Starmer explicitly said he would fight to remain in office if a Labour colleague sparks a leadership contest, vowing: “I’m not going to walk away.”

Asked if he would stand if a race was triggered, he said: “Yes.” 

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 09:05

People Are Seeing More Fireballs; Astronomers Can't Explain It...

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

Just as it faces an annual hurricane season and tornado season, North America is also experiencing an annual “fireball season,” according to NASA.

“From February through April, the appearance rate of these very bright meteors can increase by as much as 10 percent to 30 percent, especially around the weeks of the March equinox,” NASA explained in a statement in late March.

”Exactly why is not known. Some astronomers think the Earth passes through more large debris at this time of year, causing an uptick in fireball sightings.”

But the relatively regular peak season appears to have been unusually active this year.

Fireball videos recorded worldwide between January and April 2026. The American Meteor Society said 41 large fireball events were reported in the first three months of 2026—nearly double the average number of reported events for that time period from the previous five years. Courtesy of American Meteor Society

The American Meteor Society, which has gathered professional and amateur meteor reports since 1911, said 41 large fireball events—observed by more than 50 people—were reported in the first three months of 2026. That’s nearly double the average number of reported events for that time period from the previous five years.

Mike Hankey, operations manager at the American Meteor Society, told The Epoch Times that this is specifically an increase in “sporadic” meteors that are not connected to any larger comet or asteroid or regularly tracked meteor shower. And the sudden surge is not due to an increase in the number of eyes on the sky, he said.

Astronomers who have dedicated themselves to watching the skies for the falling space rocks are not sure what caused the spike or if it is even a true anomaly—a one-off, unpredictable occurrence.

Hankey stops short of saying his data—an analysis of fireball events going back to 2011—are conclusive.

“I wouldn’t say that it’s an earth-shattering anything,” he said. “It’s just an observation, right? It’s just saying, ‘Hey, this is the most traffic we’ve ever had in any single month.’

“Without publishing a paper to prove that, I can’t say, ‘Oh, it’s not a statistical anomaly.’ Maybe it is.”

In the meantime, here’s what to know about these events.

What Is a ‘Fireball’?

The term “fireball” is essentially NASA’s designation for what kids would call a shooting star—a small piece of space debris whose self-destructive path through Earth’s atmosphere creates a streaking fireball brighter than the brilliant planet Venus.

The space agency released a meteor-focused FAQ page after multiple “fireball events” went viral in early spring.

Any space rocks that are more than a meter in diameter are called “asteroids,” and anything smaller is called a “meteoroid.” Meteoroids normally break off from a comet or asteroid, but on rare occasions have been found to be parts of the moon or Mars.

When either an asteroid or a meteoroid enters Earth’s atmosphere and starts to streak across the sky, it becomes a “meteor.“ When multiple objects enter the atmosphere from the same origin point, that event is called a ”meteor shower.”

When a meteor reaches an observable brightness greater than the luminosity of Venus in the morning or evening sky, it becomes registered as a “fireball.”

“They enter the atmosphere at relatively low speeds,” Hankey explained in a press release. “Slower entry means the meteor lasts longer in the sky, is visible over a wider area, produces sonic booms more often, and more material survives to reach the ground as meteorites.”

Any pieces of the meteor that survive the trip through the atmosphere and make it to Earth’s surface are called meteorites.

A graphic illustrating meteor terminology. Illustration by The Epoch Times, Freepik, Getty Images

For example, on March 17, a fireball was spotted over parts of Canada and the United States, breaking apart over northern Ohio. NASA confirmed the falling object to be an asteroid six feet in diameter and weighing about seven tons. Upon entering the atmosphere at 45,000 mph, it became a meteor. Then, it got so bright it became a fireball that eventually blew up mid-air, resulting in meteorite fragments falling to the ground.

While this event caught the nation’s attention, NASA said it is not that rare.

“Meteors are actually quite common,” the space agency explained. ”They occur all the time, and fireballs can be seen on any given night. But they often occur over the ocean or unpopulated areas with no witnesses, or during the daytime, making them difficult to spot.

“Viewers who catch a clear view of one in the dark skies above are treated to a spectacular sky show—but one that is hardly rare.”

(Left) A meteor streaks across the sky during the annual Perseid meteor shower in Spruce Knob, W. Va., on Aug. 11, 2021. (Right) A fireball event observed in Black River Falls, Wis., on Jan. 24, 2026. Bill Ingalls/NASA, Justin J. via www.amsmeteors.org

Tracking Fireballs

Most of the time, fireballs are small objects that create a flash across the sky lasting only a few seconds, Hankey told The Epoch Times. However, some can be big enough to create a sonic boom and deliver some fragments to the ground, possibly causing damage to lives and property.

Regardless of the scale of the event, the American Meteor Society urges those who witness a fireball to file a report on its website, noting when and where they saw the fireball, how long it shone in the sky, whether or not they heard a sonic boom, and whether or not they observed the fireball break up into fragments.

Then, similar to how the National Weather Service sends out assessment teams to confirm tornado sightings submitted by its spotter network, the society tasks teams to assess the reports coming in. Those teams will officially confirm the falling meteor and send out recovery teams to search for and collect any surviving fragments. More than 200 fragments were found from the March 17 fireball event alone.

(Left) A still from a video captures a fireball in Kennerdell, Pa., on March 17, 2026. (Right) A still from a home security camera video captures a fireball in Ravenna, Ohio, on March 17, 2026. Courtesy of Jeff Campbell, David Hamann/American Meteor Society

The society also utilizes the 1,000-camera All Sky 7 network to keep as close an eye on the night sky as possible.

Hankey joined the society in 2010. A software developer by trade, he rebuilt the organization’s website and fireball reporting tool and continues to use Google Maps and Claude AI to streamline the collection and organization of the society’s data.

That data—often organically acquired as people file observational reports—produces new insights into the field of astronomy and space weather. Through this data collection, the society is able to figure out a meteor’s speed, size, and origin.

NASA, meanwhile, has its own eyes on the sky with the NASA All-Sky Fireball Network, a group of 17 cameras spread out across the country, run by the NASA Meteoroid Environment Office.

Three of those cameras are located in Florida, three in the northern Ohio/Pennsylvania area, and five in southern New Mexico and Arizona. Six others are found in north Alabama, north Georgia, southern Tennessee, and southern North Carolina.

NASA’s Meteoroid Environment Office also focuses on understanding how much of a risk these meteor impacts and their apparently seasonal fluctuations pose to spacecraft flying in and beyond Earth’s orbit.

An illustration depicts NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft prior to impact at the Didymos binary asteroid system. The mission tested whether intentionally crashing a spacecraft into an asteroid is an effective way to change its course, should an Earth-threatening asteroid be discovered in the future. Steve Gribben/Johns Hopkins APL/NASA

However, most fireballs are very small and are very difficult to track.

“The objects are pretty small, you know,” Hankey said. “A golf ball will make a fireball. A bowling ball will make a huge fireball. Something that’s like the size of a chair would make a humongous fireball. But to a telescope a million miles away, it’s not even a speck.”

NASA’s planetary defense network specifically looks for space rocks that are 140 meters or larger—larger than a small football stadium—which are deemed large enough to cause widespread damage if they breach the earth’s atmosphere.

Unclear If Fireball ‘Spike’ Is an Anomaly

But Hankey noted that as more and more data are collected over the years, the recent, seemingly random spike in sporadic fireballs may turn out to be not so random after all.

He pointed out that another spike in large fireball events was logged in the first quarter of 2021, although that number was still less than this year’s: 30 events reported by at least 50 people each, compared to 41.

The American Meteor Society published a graph of the number of fireball events reported by more than 50 people during the first quarter of the last 15 years in March, 2026. Illustrated by The Epoch Times, Courtesy of the American Meteor Society

“If we see that same spike in 2031, I mean, it’s a long way to wait—five more years—but that might say something,” he said. “If we can say, ‘Look, the AMS saw this same spike in five-year increments,’ then we would hypothesize that we would see it in the fourth year. If we did, we could probably prove it, right?”

“I mean, I’ll probably be almost 70 at that point,” he added. “That’s just the way astronomy is.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 07:20