Kazakhstan Crude Production Dips 6% After Black Sea Drone Attack

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com,

Following the Ukrainian drone attack that damaged a key export terminal on Russia’s Black Sea at end-November, Kazakhstan’s crude and condensate production has fallen by 6% so far in December compared to the average output in November, an anonymous industry source told Reuters on Monday. 

A Ukrainian attack damaged infrastructure through which the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) exports most of Kazakhstan’s oil near the Russian port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. 

Oil has continued to flow, but at lower rates, while Kazakhstan sought to re-route some exports away from the Black Sea to keep supply relatively steady. 

CPC operates the pipeline from the Caspian coast in northwest Kazakhstan to the Novorossiysk port, which handles 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports from giant oilfields operated by international oil firms. 

Affiliates of Chevron and ExxonMobil are also minority shareholders in CPC, with the Russian Federation as its largest shareholder with a 24% stake.

As a result of the damaged infrastructure at the CPC export terminal, crude and gas condensate output from Kazakhstan dropped by 6% between December 1 and 28, down compared to an average of 1.93 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, according to Reuters’ source.  

Production at the giant Tengiz oilfield on the Caspian Sea, operated by a consortium led by Chevron, has also fallen this month. Output dipped by 10% to 719,800 bpd in the period December 1 through December 28, the source told the publication.

Earlier this month, Kazakhstan said it would reroute some of the oil from at its giant Kashagan oilfield toward China. 

In view of urgent repairs at one of three single-point moorings and deferred loadings, Kazakhstan works on rerouting part of its crude exports, Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry told Reuters nearly three weeks ago. 

Kazakhstan is also diverting more of its westbound exports to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline to the Turkish Mediterranean coast after the attack, multiple industry sources told Reuters in early December.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 06:30

Europe's Ideological Paralysis Threatens AI Boom

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Economic prosperity is created in free markets by innovative companies. Over 50 percent of globally operating AI unicorns are located in the U.S., while Europe plays virtually no role. The race for the next future technology is already decided.

It seems that economic history is repeating itself in these months. On the stock markets, companies in the artificial intelligence and data center sectors are being traded feverishly. Massive capital flows into this technology. Much of it resembles the dot-com boom 25 years ago.

Structurally and regionally, little has changed since then: The U.S. and China are fighting for pole position, while the European Union’s economy remains largely on the sidelines, pushed into a spectator role by EU regulators.

Unicorns as a Measure of Innovation

An interesting measure of the EU’s lag in artificial intelligence is the number of so-called unicorns—private startups valued at at least one billion U.S. dollars before going public. This metric is considered a valid indicator of a region’s innovative capacity—and for the EU, the comparison with the U.S. is catastrophic.

About 1,700 such innovative companies currently operate in the U.S., while the EU has only around 280. The U.S. dominates this market with over 50 percent share, whereas the European economy lags far behind with less than ten percent of the global market.

This economic gap is also reflected in investment volume. Hyperscalers such as Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta invested over $320 billion in AI and corresponding data center infrastructure this year alone. More than 550 new projects—with a focus in Virginia, Texas, and Arizona—are forming the backbone of a new economy.

Data center capacity in the U.S. grew by around 160 percent this year, while Europe’s capacity increased by only about 75 percent, equaling an investment volume of just under €100 billion.

With investments of around $125 billion, China’s economy also lags far behind the American one. An interesting context—especially from the perspective of European, and particularly German, policymakers—is that nuclear power is gaining noticeable momentum in these regions.

Even if green-minded Germany refuses to acknowledge it due to its ideological stance against nuclear energy, the enormous energy demand of new technologies will in the future be covered to a significant extent by the expansion of nuclear power.

Among the few major projects in the European Union are the Brookfield project in Sweden, with an investment volume of around $10 billion, and the Start Campus in Portugal, which could also activate nearly $10 billion in investments.

Crash of Ideologies

Especially in AI, the ideological clash between the U.S. and the EU can be observed in practice and in all its consequences. While the U.S. relies on deregulation and private solutions, removing barriers for intense competition, EU Europe still adheres to the mantra of political global control. Nothing may happen unless Brussels officials have schemed it at their green table in all their wisdom.

The Draghi motto still applies here: Only massive public investments—credit-financed and centrally planned—will, in the view of EU statist planners, help overcome the enormous gap between Europe and the U.S.

In the simulations of the EU Commission’s master plan, now stretched over seven years under Ursula von der Leyen, everything seems surprisingly simple, almost simplified. The EU’s Invest-AI plan intends to borrow around €50 billion in loans and invest them in selected projects in the coming years. This is supposed to trigger private investments of €150 billion, ultimately creating four AI gigafactories.

Welcome to the socialist textbook world of “Habeckonomics”: a system in which state projects like Northvolt repeatedly fail. Yet as long as public guarantees, subsidies, and state-guaranteed purchase prices are in prospect, the small flame of political hope continues flickering in Europe’s lukewarm wind.

As usual, we also observe the typical European jungle of funding programs, subsidies, and steering projects. These include “Horizon Europe,” which is meant to strengthen computing power in science, the RAISE pilot, and the Gen-AI-4-EU initiative, together investing another billion euros in the EU’s digital infrastructure.

The Power of Competition

The ideological clash between the two major economic blocks, the U.S. and the EU, is producing strange effects. While the open capital market in the U.S. lets startups sprout like mushrooms from fertile soil, EU regulation—especially under the Digital Markets Act—has fostered a predatory mentality. That this was likely the Eurocrats’ goal from the start comes as no surprise.

Brussels imposed more than €3.2 billion in competition fines this year, mainly targeting U.S. corporations. Brussels has degenerated into a bureaucratic leviathan—a parasitic glutton absorbing economic energy and generating ossified structures and economic vacuum.

In EU Europe, the motto is: the regulatory framework matters most—and the state takes its cut. That private industry prefers other locations and withdraws capital matters little to Brussels’ extraction experts.

Against the backdrop of Europe’s massive descent into a climate-socialist dystopia, it is surprising that the roots of libertarian economic thinking originate precisely on this continent. Consider the great economist Ludwig von Mises, who repeatedly pointed out that it is the entrepreneur who drives the engine of the market economy through profit-seeking, and that without exception, decentralized processes create prosperity—while state interventions regularly derail it.

Civilization-superior models like the free market sink in the waves of ideological EU infantilism. Its repressive climate socialism promotes the growth of corporatist structures in which politics and subsidized parts of the economy carry out the extraction, eliminating competition.

The rigid adherence to centrally planned control of the new tech industry tragically mirrors the timeline of the dot-com era. What Europe fails to understand is that groundbreaking innovation inevitably triggers an investment boom, often resulting in overinvestment and a stock market crash—but ultimately leaving economically profitable structures permanently woven into the existing economy.

As with companies like Amazon, Google, or Microsoft, Europeans will look back in a few years at these months and examine this intercontinental economic bifurcation through the examples of OpenAI, Gemini, or Perplexity. The energy needed will come from French nuclear reactors and soon also from Polish nuclear power.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 05:00

Where Do Microplastics Come From Anyway?

Most people know that plastic pollution is a problem, but microplastics (the tiny fragments shed by everyday products) are much more pervasive than many realize.

Microplastics are defined as plastic particles smaller than 5 mm.

These particles are found everywhere: in oceans, soil, drinking water, food, and even the air we breathe. Yet, the origins of these particles are often invisible to consumers.

Using data from the IUCN, CSIRO, and Elsevier, this graphic, via Visual Capitalist, by Made Visual Daily breaks down what actually makes up these particles and where they come from.

A breakdown of microplastic sources, compiled from multiple environmental studies:

The chart shows that the biggest contributor to microplastics is synthetic textiles, which account for 35% of the total. Tires (28%) and city dust (24%) are also major culprits, followed by road markings (7%) and a grab bag of other sources (6%).

How Do These Microplastics Enter the Environment?

Microplastics enter the environment in two main forms: primary and secondary.

Primary microplastics are released directly into the environment at a microscopic size. These include:

• Fibers shed from washing synthetic fabrics like polyester, nylon, or acrylic.

• Rubber dust worn from car and truck tires during normal use.

• Fragments in city dust from the abrasion of paints, soles, furniture, and building coatings.

• Plastic pellets (“nurdles”) lost during plastic manufacturing or shipping.

Secondary microplastics, on the other hand, are formed when larger plastic debris—like bags, bottles, or fishing gear—breaks down over time due to sunlight, wave action, and weathering. These degrade into smaller and smaller pieces, eventually becoming microplastics.

Both types are persistent, pervasive, and increasingly found in even the most remote ecosystems. Research shows that even atmospheric currents can transport microplastic particles across continents and oceans.

The Scale of the Problem

Scientists estimate that roughly 21 million tonnes of primary microplastics have accumulated across land and sea environments, with millions of tonnes found in both agricultural soils and ocean waters. To help readers grasp the sheer scale of this invisible pollution, the graphic visualizes this total as an area filled 10 feet (3 meters) deep across a span of 2 miles (3.2 kilometers).

As highlighted in our previous breakdown of the future of the world’s plastic, the accumulation of these invisible pollutants is a growing concern, with long-term impacts still being uncovered.

What Can Be Done?

Solutions will require both technological and behavioral changes. For instance, innovations like microfiber filters in washing machines, and the development of alternative materials for tires and textiles, could help reduce the release of particles at the source.

In the meantime, understanding where microplastics come from is a critical first step. As this breakdown shows, the issue goes far beyond just plastic straws and bags.

Explore more microplastic visualizations like Visualizing The Size of Microplastics on Voronoi, our data storytelling app.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 04:15

Ukraine's Zaporozhia Nuclear Plant Could Restart 18 Months After War Ends

By Michael Kern of OilPrice.com,

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine, which has been under Russian control since early 2022, could resume operations within a year and a half after a potential end to the war, the head of the plant’s Russian operating company said on Monday. 

“If this (the end of the conflict) happens tomorrow, we will be ready to start up in mid-2027,” Ramil Galiyev, CEO of the Zaporizhzhya NPP Operating Organization, said, as carried by Russia’s state news agency RIA. 

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is not operational and does not produce electricity, but needs power supply from external sources to cool the nuclear material and avoid a nuclear meltdown or disaster.

Zaporizhzhia is Europe’s biggest nuclear power plant in terms of installed capacity of 5.7 gigawatts (GW).

Located in Enerhodar, the nuclear power plant supplied about 20% of Ukraine’s electricity before the war. 

Earlier this year, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) began a process to help restore external electricity to the power plant, following weeks of diplomatic engagement with both Ukraine and Russia after the facility again lost all access to the national grid.

IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi announced that work had begun to re-establish off-site power through repairs to the damaged 750 kV Dniprovska and 330 kV Ferosplavna-1 transmission lines.

These lines, located on opposite sides of the front line, are essential for supplying the electricity needed to cool the plant’s six shutdown reactors and spent fuel.

Last week, Russian media claimed that the Trump Administration held talks with Russia over joint management of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, including the potential to use its power for crypto mining. The discussions, which have not been independently confirmed, were allegedly held without Ukraine’s participation, and likewise proposed resuming electricity supply to Ukraine, Russian newspaper Kommersant reported on Friday.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 03:30

These Are The World's 5 Largest Megacities

By 2050, 68% of the global population is projected to live in urban centers, up from 55% today.

The world’s largest megacity, when measured by the combination of satellite imagery and census data, is Guangzhou, China.

Strikingly, the population has boomed by nearly 20-fold in just 50 years driven by China’s rapid economic rise.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows the growth of the world’s megacities, based on data from the European Commission via Our World in Data.

The Rise of the World’s Megacities (1975-2025P)

Below, we show the rise of the top five largest cities worldwide—using satellite imagery and census data—not administrative borders:

Since 1975, the population of Guangzhou has expanded by 40.9 million. It has the equivalent population of the entire country of Canada.

During the 1990s, the city’s population growth accelerated, driven by trade and industrial activity. Located on the Pearl River Delta, north of Hong Kong, it stands as a key port and transportation hub.

Jakarta, Indonesia’s capital and the economic hub of Southeast Asia’s largest economy, has undergone massive expansion. Its population has surged by 29 million over the past five decades, reaching 38.1 million today.

Meanwhile, New Delhi, India has grown 398%, supported by rising incomes and urban migration. By 2030, the city is expected to gain nearly two million more residents, spanning a population of 33.3 million.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the world’s fastest-growing economies.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 02:45

The Beginning Of The End For Europe's Old Security Order

Authored by J.Ricardo Martins via journal-neo.su,

Europe’s long-standing security framework is undergoing profound strain, increasingly overshadowed by economic instruments that shape geopolitical influence.

This analysis examines how geoeconomic logics are reshaping Europe’s strategic posture and challenging the foundations of its traditional security order.

1. The Unraveling: How Europe Lost Control of Its Own Security Architecture

The photograph of Steve Witkoff with Vladimir Putin in Moscow is not merely another episode in the long chronicle of American informal diplomacy. It is a symbol of something far more consequential: the definitive erosion of the Euro-Atlantic security architecture that has anchored Europe since 1945. Europe now finds itself a spectator to a negotiation that directly concerns its future but in which it has no meaningful voice.

For decades, European leaders assumed that their security environment was guaranteed through three pillars: American military supremacy, NATO cohesion, and a Russia that could be simultaneously contained and marginalised. The war in Ukraine temporarily sustained this illusion. The European Union interpreted Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as validation of the post-1991 Atlantic order, proof that Europe needed more NATO, more American leadership, more defence spending, and more ideological alignment with Washington.

Europe’s tragedy is not that it is being excluded from the negotiations shaping its own future, but that it does not yet fully grasp the depth of its exclusion

But as the conflict entered its later stages, and as new political dynamics emerged in Washington, a deeper reality became visible: Europe’s vision of security was not aligned with America’s long-term strategic trajectory.

Washington seeks to contain China; Europe seeks to contain Russia. Washington looked to the Indo-Pacific; Europe clung to its Eastern frontier. Washington viewed Russia as a potential co-player in global resource extraction, Arctic development, and strategic balancing; Europe continued to frame Russia as a permanent existential enemy.

The result is a form of strategic misalignment, with Europe still operating inside an architecture that Washington no longer fully believes in.

The American Pivot, the European Panic

Donald Trump’s return to the international stage accelerated this divergence dramatically. Trump’s strategic re-imagination of Russia, as an asset rather than an adversary placed Europe in a state of near-panic. His willingness to undermine NATO commitments, his explicit distrust of European leaders, and his understanding of geopolitics as business diplomacy all contribute to Europe’s strategic anxiety.

Trump’s humiliation of Europe is deliberate. By sending Witkoff, an adviser with no diplomatic obligations, to Moscow repeatedly while ignoring Kyiv, Trump signals that the centre of gravity has moved. The peace process will not be mediated through Brussels, Berlin, or Paris; it will be mediated through a Washington–Moscow axis, bypassing European institutions entirely.

Europe’s refusal to speak with Moscow is interpreted in the Kremlin not as principled resistance but as strategic self-sabotage. And Washington, sensing opportunity, is willing to exploit this fracture.

As many analysts warned—both sympathetic and critical—Europe is discovering too late that its security cannot be maintained through moral rhetoric, sanctions, or rearmament without industrial foundations. Europe wants to contain Russia, but it no longer has the political, military, or economic tools to do so.

2. The Dealmakers: How Trump, Putin, and Business Networks Are Writing Europe Out of Its Own Future

Shadow Diplomacy as the New Geopolitics

Witkoff’s shuttle diplomacy represents a structural shift: diplomacy is no longer the domain of foreign ministries but of political families, corporate intermediaries, and resource-based alliances. This is why Kushner’s presence in Moscow matters profoundly. The December talks were not simply high-level negotiations; they were the emergence of a new system of geopolitical conduct, in which trust between individual power networks outweighs institutional protocols.

The Trump–Putin paradigm is built on three principles: (i) commercial logic over ideological confrontation; (ii) resource extraction as the foundation of geopolitical stability; and (iii) bilateral trust over multilateral institutions.

This is profoundly humiliating for Europe, which traditionally sought legitimacy via multilateralism. For Washington and Moscow, however, Europe’s exclusion is not an oversight but a feature. The old European security architecture depended on Europe’s centrality. The new one does not.

The Economic Heart of the New Architecture

The emerging Washington–Moscow understanding is grounded in four economic pillars:

– Arctic and Northern Sea Route Resource Extraction: Joint participation in Arctic minerals, hydrocarbons, and rare earths is central. The US is far behind Russia in icebreaker capacity and Arctic infrastructure, and cooperation is a pragmatic solution.

– Energy Corridors and Post-War Reconstruction: American investors eye Russian energy as an undervalued frontier market. Simultaneously, reconstruction of Ukraine (potentially funded by frozen Russian assets) creates massive opportunities for US construction and energy firms.

– Reintegrating Russian hydrocarbons into global markets: This is a long-term American objective, both to stabilise global energy prices and to manage China’s growing leverage over Russia.

– Replacing NATO’s military logic with economic interdependence: This is the core of Trump’s thinking: build a Washington–Moscow axis rooted in profitability, thereby reducing the incentive for armed confrontation.

Why Europeans Are Desperate

Because Europe has tied its industrial base to sanctions, decarbonisation, and American military dependency, it is now structurally weaker than both Washington and Moscow in the emerging configuration.

Europe is discovering three painful truths:

– It cannot defend itself without the US. NATO’s European pillars lack ammunition, industrial capacity, and high-end military technology.

– Sanctions have weakened Europe more than Russia. Energy-intensive industries in Germany, Austria, and Italy are relocating to the US. Deindustrialisation is underway in Europe.

– The peace negotiations will not include Europe as a co-author. Europe will receive the final document, but not be invited to shape it.

This is why European strategists are furious: the security architecture that defined the continent is being rewritten over their heads.

3. After Ukraine: What the New European Security Order Might Look Like

Will NATO survive as Europe’s central pillar?

NATO will not disappear. It remains too deeply institutionalised, too symbolically powerful for Europeans, and too useful for Washington’s basing structures and arms exports. But it will be downgraded, transformed from the core of the European security order into a secondary framework, increasingly dependent on: US political will, a fragmented European defence sector, reduced American enthusiasm for European commitments, and a US–Russia modus vivendi that Europe does not control.

Under a Trump presidency, NATO has become a transactional umbrella, not a strategic alliance. Its credibility will depend entirely on the personal relationship between Trump and Putin—and Europe hates this because it strips the continent of agency.

The Impact of the War and the Coming Peace on Europe’s Architectural Future

The conflict in Ukraine revealed Europe’s structural vulnerabilities: lack of ammunition, lack of production capacity, overreliance on sanctions, and strategic incoherence. The peace will reveal something even more uncomfortable: Europe cannot enforce the consequences of the settlement on its own.

If the US and Russia craft the final settlement, Europe must either accept it or refuse and confront the consequences alone. Neither Paris nor Berlin is prepared for the latter scenario.

Ukraine, tragically, will be the ultimate pressure point. Its sovereignty will be negotiated by outsiders. Europe knows this but cannot alter it.

Can Europe Hold the Architecture Without the US?

The honest answer is no, not in the short or medium term. Europe lacks nuclear deterrence autonomy, military-industrial depth, cohesive political will, strategic consensus, energy security, technological parity with the US, and the capacity to contain Russia without American leadership.

The idea of European strategic autonomy remains aspirational rhetoric. The EU has military instruments, but not a military. It has ambitions, but not the industrial base to sustain them.

The Asian Century and the Decline of Europe

The more Washington and Moscow converge economically, the more Europe’s global relevance declines. The Russia–China axis strengthens, India emerges as a balancing pole, and the BRICS expand their economic and political weight. Europe becomes a peninsula of a Eurasian supercontinent that it does not control, increasingly marginal to global power centres.

Whether Asia can provide stability depends on the trust networks forming between Beijing, Moscow, New Delhi, Riyadh, and Tehran. Europe is not part of those networks.

Conclusion: A Continent in Suspension

Europe’s tragedy is not that it is being excluded from the negotiations shaping its own future, but that it does not yet fully grasp the depth of its exclusion.

The Moscow meetings are not a negotiation between equals; it is a negotiation between systems of power. Trump and Putin understand one another because they speak the language of transactional geopolitics. Europe speaks the language of norms, laws, and bureaucratic procedures—in a world that is no longer governed by them.

A new European security architecture is being drafted, and it is not being drafted in Brussels. It is being drafted in Washington and Moscow.

Europe must confront a stark question: Can a continent that has lost strategic agency recover it before the next geopolitical cycle closes?

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 02:00

China Condemns Israel's Recognition Of Somaliland As Taiwan Embraces Move

Via The Cradle

The Chinese Foreign Ministry released a statement on Monday condemning Israel’s recognition of the separatist Republic of Somaliland, after Taiwan became the first state to welcome Tel Aviv's move. 

China opposes the Israeli recognition of Somaliland as an "independent sovereign state" and the decision to "establish diplomatic relations" with it, said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian. "No country should encourage or support other countries’ internal separatist forces for its own selfish interests," he added, while urging the country of Somalia to halt "separatist activities and collusion with external forces."

The spokesman made the comments during a news briefing. "China firmly supports Somalia's sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, and opposes any moves that undermine Somali territorial integrity," he went on to say.

A day earlier, Taiwan became the first state to welcome Israel’s recognition of Somaliland. The Taiwanese Foreign Ministry said in a statement that Israel, Taiwan, and Somaliland are "like-minded democratic partners sharing the values of democracy, freedom, and rule of law."

Last week, Israel became the first state to formally recognize Somaliland, which broke away from Somalia in 1991 but had never been recognized by any UN member state. Somali officials slammed the move. 

The Israeli government has been aiming for Somaliland to serve as a potential destination for Palestinians that Tel Aviv aims to forcibly displace from Gaza, according to multiple reports over the past year. 

Somali Prime Minister Hamza Barre said that Israel was “searching for a foothold in the Horn of Africa” and called on it to recognize and accept a Palestinian state instead. 

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud referred to the move as a "naked invasion" and said it poses a "threat to regional stability."

The Arab League, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), African Union, and Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) also strongly rejected the Israeli recognition of Somaliland. Iran's Foreign Ministry called the move "malicious."

China’s rejection of the recognition coincided with a report by Hebrew newspaper Maariv, which claimed that after recognizing Somaliland, Israel is now considering recognizing the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Yemen, hoping for strategic cooperation on the Red Sea coast against Ansarallah.

The secessionist STC has recently swept across large swathes of central and southern Yemen with the hopes of creating an independent state. According to recent reports, Israel and Taiwan have also been enhancing their relationship.

Taiwanese Foreign Minister Francois Wu recently made a secret visit to Israel, sources told Reuters on 11 December. In October this year, Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te said that Israel serves as a model for the island to strengthen its defenses.

Weeks earlier, Taipei City unveiled the T-Dome system – inspired by Tel Aviv's Iron Dome missile defense system. Taiwan and Israel do not have formal diplomatic relations. Pressure from China, which views Taiwan as one of its provinces, has left Taipei with very few diplomatic ties to other states.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 23:25

Lung Cancer? Alarming Study Finds Ultra-Processed Foods Are Even Worse Than Previously Thought

A large U.S. cohort study has found that individuals consuming the highest levels of ultra-processed foods face a significantly greater risk of developing lung cancer, even after adjusting for smoking and other factors.

Research published in the journal Thorax analyzed data from more than 101,000 participants in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Over an average follow-up period of 12 years, researchers identified 1,706 incident cases of lung cancer, including 1,473 cases of non-small cell lung cancer—the slower-growing form—and 233 cases of the more aggressive small cell variant.

Participants in the top quartile of ultra-processed food consumption, adjusted for energy intake, showed a 41% higher risk of lung cancer compared with those in the lowest quartile (hazard ratio 1.41). The associations held for both non-small cell (37% higher risk) and small cell (44% higher risk) subtypes.

Ultra-processed foods typically include items formulated with multiple industrial processes and additives, such as preservatives, emulsifiers and artificial flavors. Examples in the study ranged from ice cream, packaged sauces and confectionery to soft drinks, ready-made burgers, pizza and processed meats. On average, the energy-adjusted ultra-processed food consumption was 2.8 servings per day, with lunch meat contributing 11.1% to total UPF intake, diet or caffeinated soft drinks 7.3%, and decaffeinated soft drinks 6.6%, the study found. UPFs are described as nutritionally poor, with high energy density, low fibre, fewer micronutrients, and excessive sugars, sodium, fats and additives.

Examples: 

• Sugar-sweetened beverages
• Processed meats
• Packaged snack cakes & pastries
• Instant noodles & boxed meals
• Frozen prepared pizzas & entrées
• Sugary breakfast cereals
• Flavored/sweetened dairy products
• Reconstituted meat products
• Packaged refined breads & buns
• Processed cheese products

The findings build on prior evidence linking ultra-processed foods to a range of adverse health outcomes, including cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and reduced life expectancy. In the U.S. and Britain, such foods comprise more than half of daily caloric intake for many individuals.

“You can’t say from this study that UPFs cause cancer as it’s observational, so we’re looking at associations, not direct effects. But it does strengthen the case for looking more closely at the food environment many people are living in, where UPFs are cheap, convenient, and heavily marketed, making them a go-to for many,” Rob Hobson, author of Unprocess Your Family Life, told The Independent.

“That might mean cooking more from scratch where possible, adding in more whole foods like vegetables, beans and grains, or just becoming more aware of how often UPFs show up in your day,” Hobson added. “It’s not about being perfect, it’s about balance and understanding how your food choices could be supporting or undermining your long-term health.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 23:00

Your Mind Can Bend Time - Here's How

Authored by Makai Allbert via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A minute is always a minute, except when it isn’t.

This idea was put to the test in a 2023 Harvard study. Researchers induced minor bruising on participants’ forearms and then had them sit in rooms where the clocks ran at normal speed, half-speed, or double-speed.

Illustration by The Epoch Times/Shutterstock

Crucially, the actual elapsed time was identical across all conditions—28 minutes—but the clocks ticked at different rates.

The results surprised the researchers. Wounds healed faster when people thought more time had passed, and slower when they thought less time had passed. “Personally, I didn’t think it would work,” lead author Peter Aungle told The Epoch Times. “And then it did work!”

A century ago, Albert Einstein demonstrated that time is relative—not fixed. He explained the idea with a simple, humorous example: “Put your hand on a hot stove for a minute, and it seems like an hour. Sit with a pretty girl for an hour, and it seems like a minute. That’s relativity.”

Now, psychologists and neuroscientists are finding that our sense of time is not only inherently subjective but also highly malleable.

We can’t stop the clock, but by understanding how we perceive time, we can make minutes feel longer, heal faster, and even expand our memories.

How the Mind Affects Reality

The Harvard healing experiment is a pivotal piece of evidence that mind and body are not only connected, but may be one and the same. “We weren’t really manipulating time itself. We were manipulating expectations,” Aungle said.

“If they [people] think more time has passed, they expect more healing—and those expectations can shape the body.”

Illustration by The Epoch Times.

Most people think of mind-body effects only in terms of emotion, he added. Yet, “psychology is embedded in everything the body does. I would argue the mind influences every physiological outcome to some degree.”

Expectations are not the only time bender. While believing time has sped up aids healing, high-arousal negative emotions, such as fear, significantly dilate our perception of time, making it feel slower.

In one study, participants watched frightening clips from “The Shining” or “Scream.” Afterward, a blue circle was presented in the center of the computer screen. Participants perceived that the circle lasted longer after watching frightening movies than after watching neutral or sad films.

Sylvie Droit-Volet, the lead researcher of the study, told The Epoch Times that subjective expansion is likely because “fear accelerates the internal clock, making time seem to pass more quickly and prompting action”—the fight or flight response.

Because the internal clock is ticking faster, measuring more units of time per second, the external world appears to move in slow motion. The time dilation allows the brain to process information with higher resolution during life-threatening situations.

Slowing Time

We can also make time feel longer in positive ways, such as by seeking out moments of awe.

A 2012 study published in Psychological Science found that feeling awe, whether from a story or a memory, makes time feel more abundant.

Awe acts as a reset button for the brain. It brings people intensely into the present moment. According to the “extended-now theory,” focusing on the present moment elongates time perception because we are not mentally rushing toward the future. By filling the present with vastness, awe offsets the feeling that time is slipping away, making life feel more satisfying.

The study also found that people who felt awe were less impatient, more willing to help others, and preferred experiences over material products.

We can also slow our perception of time through the practice of savoring.

“Savoring is putting a highlighter pen on our experiences,” psychologist Tamar Chansky told The Epoch Times. Savoring does not require extra duration, but rather a shift in attention.

For the time-starved, Chansky suggested taking “two more bites” of an experience—whether tasting coffee or looking out a window—to engage the brain’s awareness. This simple act creates “invisible, little expanders” within our finite days. It is a way of feeding the spirit without requiring a restructuring of one’s schedule, she said.

“We could rush through a whole day so easily ... and we might feel somewhat or even very productive at the end of the day, but we might not feel good. So finding these little pockets ... helps us to feel that expansion within.”

Chansky’s insight aligns with research findings that training attention, such as through meditation, can change how we perceive time.

Experienced meditators feel time passes more slowly during meditation and in their daily lives than people who do not meditate.

Being in nature also slows our experience of time.

In one study, participants overestimated the duration of a walk by nearly two minutes when it took place in nature, whereas their estimates were accurate for urban walks. Nature exposure increases mindfulness and reduces stress, states that are theoretically linked to a slowing of the internal clock. If you need to “buy” yourself a little time, you can find it in the wild. “Time grows on trees,” the study concluded.

Memories and Time

Why do childhood summers feel endless while adult years appear to fly by? The answer lies in how our brains process novelty. Our brains measure time based on how many new memories are created.

When we encounter unexpected stimuli, our brains process more information, leading to a subjective expansion of that duration. In experiments where a low-probability stimulus—called an oddball—appears in a stream of repetitive standard stimuli, the oddball, or novelty, is consistently judged to last longer.

Illustration by The Epoch Times.

“The more unique, meaningful, or changing experiences we have, the longer the stretch of time feels in memory,” Marc Wittmann, a research fellow at the Institute for Frontier Areas of Psychology and Mental Health in Germany, said. On the other hand, routine compresses time in memory by halting the recording of details it already knows. When neurons fire repeatedly in response to the same stimulus, their response diminishes; they become efficient but record less data.

Therefore, to stretch your subjective life, introduce variation.

“A fulfilled and varied life is a long life,” Wittmann told The Epoch Times. This effect is not about simply filling a schedule with busyness—it is about “deep emotional resonance with the world.” A hundred days of routine collapse into a single memory unit in the brain; a week of travel or new experiences remains distinct and expansive.

Wittmann’s recent research adds a nuance: cognitive capacity also plays a role. As we age, the perception that the last decade flew by is partly due to cognitive decline, which affects our ability to encode complex memories. However, this effect is moderate. People who stay mentally and physically fit and continue to seek novel, emotionally rewarding experiences can subjectively expand their sense of time, regardless of age.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 22:35

These Are The Best-Selling Video Games Since 2020

Since 2020, blockbuster game launches have arrived across every major platform and in a variety of genres, from cozy life sims to sprawling open-world adventure RPGs.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, ranks the best-selling video games from 2020 to 2025 based on global unit sales using data from Video Game Sales Wiki (Fandom).

Animal Crossing Dominates as the 2020s’ Best-Selling Game

At 48.2 million units, Animal Crossing: New Horizons stands alone at the top of the ranking.

The game released on March 20, 2020, right as much of the world began to lock down due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As such, the latest addition to the Animal Crossing series made for the perfect time-sink amidst a period of global uncertainty and inactivity.

The table below shows the full ranking of the top 20 best-selling games from 2020 to 2025:

In second place is Hogwarts Legacy with 34.0 million, making the gap between #1 and #2 a sizable 14.2 million units. Hogwarts Legacy had the advantage of being tied to one of the world’s best-known franchises, Harry Potter, and delivered the open-world wizardry experience many fans had been waiting years for.

After that, the leaderboard tightens dramatically: four different games sit at exactly 30.0 million units (Elden Ring, Cyberpunk 2077, Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War, and Call of Duty: Vanguard).

Nintendo Games Continue to Lead Sales

Several of the best-sellers are instantly recognizable Nintendo franchises. With six games in the top 20 best-sellers since 2020, Nintendo continues to be a development and publishing powerhouse in the world of gaming.

The six Nintendo titles together reached 144.7 million in sales, with no other singular publisher or developer coming close.

The company’s continued refinement of well-established franchises like Pokemon, Super Mario Bros., and The Legend of Zelda has proven fruitful, with the company still able to produce hits across genres.

With the Nintendo Switch 2 console selling well since its June 2025 launch, Nintendo’s dominance doesn’t seem like it’s fading anytime soon.

To learn more about the global video game industry, check out this graphic that breaks down video game revenue by country on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 22:10

China's CNOOC Discovers Massive Oilfield in Bohai Sea

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

CNOOC Ltd, China’s top offshore crude oil and natural gas producer, has announced the discovery of a major new oilfield in the Bohai Sea. 

The Qinhuangdao 29-6 discovery in the shallow Neogene formations of the Bohai Sea is yet another oilfield estimated to hold more than 100 million tons of crude, or about 730 million barrels, and discovered by CNOOC recently, the company said.  

Through continued exploration, the proved in-place volume of Qinhuangdao 29-6 Oilfield has exceeded 100 million tons of oil equivalent. 

The oil property of the major new discovery is medium-heavy crude, the Chinese major added.  

The Qinhuangdao 29-6 Oilfield is the second one-hundred-million-ton-class lithological oilfield discovered in the mature exploration area of the Shijiutuo Uplift, CNOOC said. This further highlights the value of exploration and consolidates the resource base for increasing CNOOC’s reserves and production, according to the company. 

In the middle of 2025, CNOOC launched production of heavy crude from its Kenli 10-2 Oilfields Development Project, which is the largest shallow lithological oilfield offshore China.  

The project in the southern Bohai Sea will see 79 development wells commissioned, including 33 cold recovery wells, 24 thermal recovery wells, 21 water injection wells, and 1 water source well.  

CNOOC expects the project to achieve peak production of about 19,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2026.  

Similarly to all other state majors in China, CNOOC is boosting domestic oil and gas production and exploration per orders by the Chinese authorities who seek to reduce China’s dependence on imported oil and gas. 

CNOOC has managed to post record high production in recent years, with an all-time high output in 2024, and another record-high expected for 2025.

Outside China, CNOOC is a minority partner in many major offshore developments, including in the Exxon-led consortium that has found more than 11 billion barrels of oil equivalents offshore Guyana and is currently the only producing consortium in the South American country. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 21:45

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: New 2-Month Lows, Just Barely

With another holiday closure on deck and light calendar of events, the rate market is off to another uneventful start this week. In fact, the average lender barely budged from last Friday. But it was enough for MND's 30yr fixed rate index to tick down by 0.01%.

This is the lowest level since October 28th--just barely edging out the lows seen on November 25th. There were only 5 days in November and one day in September with lower rates. Before that, you'd have to go back to September 2024 to see anything lower.[30 year fixed 6.194%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 9:00 AM ET, FHFA House Price Index for October. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. 

• Also at 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for October. The consensus is for an 1.1% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index for October.

• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes, Meeting of December 9-10<

Sunken Russian Ship Allegedly Carried Nuclear Submarine Reactors Destined For North Korea

The maritime industry publication The Maritime Executive, citing a new report from the Spanish outlet La Verdad, reported that the Russian cargo ship that sank last year off Spain's southeastern Mediterranean coast was transporting undeclared components for two VM-4SG nuclear submarine reactors, allegedly with a port call planned in North Korea.

In December 2024, the Russian cargo ship Ursa Major sank under highly suspicious circumstances in waters between Spain and Algeria following reported engine room explosions. The ship's owners characterized the incident as "an act of terrorism."

Spanish authorities determined that blue-tarped objects on Ursa Major's stern were likely unfueled naval nuclear reactor casings, each weighing roughly 65 tons. Investigators identified them as components of VM-4SG reactors, Soviet-designed naval nuclear reactors developed to power Russia's nuclear ballistic-missile submarine fleet during the late Cold War and still in limited service today.

Here's the report:

The circumstances of the vessel's sudden sinking were suspicious, prompting the maritime captaincy to begin questioning the crew. Ursa Major's master, Capt. Igor Vladimirovich Anisimov, initially told investigators the cargo consisted of more than 100 empty containers, two giant crawler cranes on deck, and two large components for a Russian icebreaker project, referring to the tarped objects near the stern. All cargo was reportedly bound for Vladivostok.

The two so-called "icebreaker components" were shipped as deck cargo and were visible to spotting aircraft during the ship's earlier transit. Based on aerial surveillance, each object measured approximately 20 to 25 feet square, including crating, dunnage, and tarping.

Spanish authorities estimated their weight at roughly 65 tonnes each, indicating unusually high density. La Verdad reported that after the captain was pressed on the matter, he asked for time to think before telling investigators the items were merely "manhole covers."

Documents reviewed by La Verdad show Spanish investigators ultimately identified the cargo as casings for nuclear submarine reactors, specifically two Soviet-era VM-4SG reactors.

As for the destination, Spanish authorities speculated the reactor components may have been intended for North Korea's nuclear submarine program, which recently unveiled its first ballistic-missile submarine. Multiple analysts have suggested the new North Korean vessel likely benefited from Russian technical assistance for reactor design and could potentially incorporate a fully built Russian reactor. Russia is believed to owe North Korea a strategic debt following Pyongyang's large-scale transfers of artillery shells and munitions that helped Russian forces stabilize and regain ground in eastern Ukraine.

The cause of Ursa Major's sinking appears to have been kinetic. The shipowner told media there were three explosions and a 20-inch hole in the shell plating, while the captain confirmed the hole's ragged edges were bent inward. This damage profile is consistent with an external explosion impacting the hull.

This report surfaced days after North Korea released new images of what it claims is its first nuclear-powered submarine, a platform framed as a direct challenge to American naval dominance in the region.

If the report that Ursa Major's sinking was kinetic is accurate, the unresolved question is who executed the strike and under what operational authority.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 18:50

The Pence Mirage: Why The Right Isn't Leaving Trump

Authored by Roger Kimball via American Greatness,

To listen to the chatter of the Important People, you would think that a “decent and elevated conservatism”™ was about to return, has returned, or is just about to triumph in the person of—cue the drum roll—Mike Pence, former vice president and perpetual Mr. Goody Two-Shoes.  

Yes, that’s right, because a baker’s dozen of less-than-fully gruntled employees of the Heritage Foundation decamped to Pence’s “Advancing American Freedom” sandbox, we are supposed to believe—at least, we are supposed to say—that a “Reorganization of the Conservative Movement” is underway.  

What do you think?

Does the mutiny at the Heritage Foundation signal a “significant shift within the American right?” Or is it just the familiar anti-Trump palaver we’ve been used to since the media’s “loud and troublesome insects of the hour” began each day by announcing (praying?) that “the walls are closing in” on Donald Trump? 

I think it’s the latter. I think so, in part, because Mike “Mr. Morality” Pence is a political non-entity and in part because the colossus he faces is not the Heritage Foundation but his old boss, Donald Trump.  

These days, any mention of the Heritage Foundation or its president, Kevin Roberts, acts like a ringing bell before the canines of Ivan Pavlov. Instead of salivating, susceptible souls start shouting “Tucker Carlson.” I have written about that melodrama a couple of times—here, for example, and here. I don’t really have more to add about that controversy beyond acknowledging that I like it better when conservatives train their fire on leftists rather than on one another. Perhaps the motto “no enemies on the right” is deficient as a matter of principle. As a matter of practical politics, however, there is a lot to be said for it. 

In any event, it has been amusing to watch Mike Pence pretend that he might become the new standard-bearer for that “decent and elevated conservatism” I mentioned above. The line comes from Bill Kristol, who, in 2019, insisted that Donald Trump was destroying the “decent and elevated conservatism” embodied by, well, by Bill Kristol, of course. MAGA is so naff, so infra dignitatem, so populist. Imagine wanting to make life better for Americans rather than consigning them to drug-sodden poverty at home or the holocaust of foreign wars. Mike Pence has a satchel full of edifying clichés he is fond of dispensing. They didn’t do much for his disastrous and short-lived presidential campaign in the 2024 election cycle. That started in June 2023 and ended a few months later in October, not with a bang nor even a whimper. It just collapsed. Among many cringeworthy moments, perhaps the cringiest was when, having demanded that we send more tanks to Ukraine, Pence said that the sorry state of most American cities was “not my concern.” I suppose that was the elevated thing to say. It was not the vote-getting thing to say. 

Meanwhile, as Pence looks forward to a lifetime of losing gracefully and basks in the warm glow of moral indignation, Donald Trump has been busy actually doing things.

People in Pence’s orbit, and Pence himself, have suggested that Trump’s MAGA agenda is old news, that it has run its course, and that it needs to be retired for something more decent and more elevated. The great Don Surber reminded us recently that the beautiful people in the media and in the know have been predicting “Peak Trump” at least since the moment he rode down the elevator in Trump Tower to announce his bid for the presidency in 2015.

I hate to crash that party, but it is worth noting that Donald Trump has yet to pass the one-year mark of his current four-year term.

In that brief time, he has sealed the southern border, overseen the deportation (self- and assisted-) of more than two million illegal immigrants, and dismantled the insidious racist institution of DEI. He is in the process of destroying the archipelago headquarters of the Teachers Union, also known as the Department of Education, and those bits of the EPA that are concerned more with virtue signaling than with maintaining clean air and water. He has also begun the long process of defunding the international empire of Democrat satellites, the myriad of so-called “Non-Governmental Organizations,” which turn out on closer inspection to be semi-camouflaged proxies for the progressive agenda. Then there are little things like brokering peace in the Middle East, destroying ISIS, and stanching the flow of fentanyl and other dangerous drugs into the U.S.  

On the debit side, I suppose we could list making our European allies angry by pointing out that their Orwellian culture of censorship (free speech, said the head of the EU, is a “virus” that requires the “vaccine” of censorship) together with their importation of millions of Islamic migrants from the Third World is a recipe for “civilizational erasure.” How indelicate of Trump to mention that—almost as indelicate as denying visas to EU bureaucrats who attempt to censor or fine U.S. individuals and businesses.

Meanwhile, Trump has flooded the economy with trillions of dollars of foreign investment and ramped up domestic energy production. We were warned that Trump’s populist policies would precipitate economic disaster. It hasn’t worked out that way. Just a few days ago, the news broke that growth for the third quarter of this year was an astonishing 4.3%, while inflation, predicted to be over 3 percent, came in at 2.7 percent. 

People have been complaining about “affordability.” Trump has been effective in addressing that, too. Travel in the U.S. is way up. Why? Because the cost of energy is way down. Gas prices, a typical headline reads, “fall to four-year lows as millions embark on holiday road trips.” Rents are falling, private sector employment for Americans is up, and the trade deficit is half what it was under Biden.  

Then there is crime. Trump’s decision to send the National Guard into various violent, dysfunctional cities put many knickers in a twist. But last week we learned that the murder rate through October had dropped nearly 20 percent compared to 2024, the biggest one-year drop ever. And it wasn’t only the murder rate that Trump’s policies have trimmed. Robberies are down 18.3 percent, vehicle thefts 23.2 percent, and overall violent crime more than 10 percent. As Elon Musk put it, “Removing murderers from the streets works wonders.”

Notwithstanding the anti-Trump Casandras, the Mike Pence Show is a limited-run engagement in an off-off-off Broadway venue patronized mostly by people like Bill Kristol and various disaffected policy lemmings. The New York Times, CNN, and Politico will continue to attend to the headlines on their marquee. Denizens of the deep state will applaud. But the main stage belongs to Donald Trump, internecine squabbles notwithstanding. 

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 18:25

West Virginia Has The Highest Share Of Income-less Households

Household income is often discussed in terms of averages, but the share of households reporting no income can reveal a different side of the country’s economic reality.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, highlights the share of households with no income across U.S. states (and the District of Columbia) in 2024 using data from the Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 1-Year Estimates.

States with the Highest Shares of No-Income Households

Across U.S. states, the share of households with no income ranges from a low of 17% (Utah) to a high of 34% (West Virginia). The United States’ overall share of no-income households is 25%.

The data table below lists each state’s share of households with no income:

State Share of households with no income West Virginia 34% New Mexico 31% Maine 30% Arkansas 30% Mississippi 30% Alabama 29% Louisiana 29% Florida 29% Kentucky 29% Michigan 28% Montana 28% Delaware 28% Arizona 28% Oregon 28% Vermont 27% South Carolina 27% Rhode Island 27% Oklahoma 27% Pennsylvania 27% Wyoming 27% Ohio 27% Missouri 27% Idaho 26% Wisconsin 26% Tennessee 26% New York 26% North Carolina 25% U.S. Overall 25% Connecticut 25% Indiana 25% Iowa 25% New Hampshire 25% Hawaii 24% Nevada 24% South Dakota 24% Illinois 24% Minnesota 24% Massachusetts 24% Kansas 24% North Dakota 24% Washington 23% Georgia 23% Nebraska 23% Virginia 23% California 23% New Jersey 22% Maryland 22% Alaska 21% Colorado 21% Texas 21% District of Columbia 19% Utah 17%

West Virginia stands out with the highest share of households reporting no income at 34%, three percentage points ahead of New Mexico at 31%.

The top five states by share of no-income households are rounded out with Maine, Arkansas, and Mississippi each at 30%.

These states tend to have older populations, higher rates of disability, and lower median incomes overall. In such contexts, a larger portion of households rely on non-earned income sources or report no income during the survey period.

States with the Fewest No-Income Households

Even among the lowest results, “no income” households remain a meaningful slice of the population.

After Utah (17%), the District of Columbia is next-lowest at 19%. Alaska, Colorado, and Texas each come in at 21%, with only five jurisdictions at 21% or lower.

Utah’s low share of one-adult/non-family households is a large driver of its low rate of households with no income.

States with the Most No-Income Households

Below we look at the top 10 states by number of households with no income:

Beyond California, Texas, Florida, and New York, states like Ohio and Michigan also rank in the top 10, despite sitting closer to the middle of the pack by share of no-income households. Their high totals reflect population scale rather than unusually high prevalence.

Meanwhile, states with the highest shares—such as West Virginia and New Mexico—do not appear in the top 10 by total households, highlighting the gap between where no-income households are most concentrated versus where they are most numerous.

To learn more about the incomes across the U.S., check out this graphic about the income needed to reach the 1% in each state on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 18:00

Top Senate Races To Watch In 2026

Authored by Joseph Lord & Jackson Richman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

As 2025 draws to a close, the country is already turning its attention to next year’s midterm elections.

Republicans are facing favorable odds in the Senate, where they currently hold a 53–47 advantage.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

In the 2026 midterms, 33 Senate seats are up for election—20 currently held by Republicans and 13 held by Democrats. Prediction site Polymarket gives Republicans a 66 percent chance at holding the upper chamber.

To do so, they’ll need to fend off challenges from Democrats and make gains in a series of key races, including in Georgia, North Carolina, Maine, and Texas.

Meanwhile, Democrats are the current favorites to reclaim the House from Republicans, who hold the chamber 220 to 213, with two vacancies. Prediction sites such as Polymarket are giving Democrats a 78 percent chance of winning and RealClearPolitics (RCP) shows Democrats leading in House polls by about 3.7 percentage points.

Here are the top eight Senate races to watch, leading up to the Nov. 3, 2026, general election.

1. Texas

Both the Democratic and Republican primaries in the Lone Star State are intense contests.

On the GOP side, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is running to replace incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).

Paxton entered the race earlier this year, carrying baggage from controversies, including a 2023 impeachment trial in which he was ultimately acquitted by the Texas Senate.

The race has been labeled by Paxton as a contest between his populist, America First politics and the establishment politics, which he claims are represented by Cornyn.

Cornyn has described the race as a question of character, referencing Paxton’s impeachment, allegations of adultery, and other legal challenges faced by his challenger.

Most observers and prediction markets have pegged these two candidates as the frontrunners.

However, Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) has also thrown his hat into the ring, setting up a three-way primary that is likely to result in a runoff.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, the main campaigning and fundraising arm of the Senate GOP, is supporting Cornyn, who is slightly favored in current RCP polling.

Trump has not yet made an endorsement in the race.

Given the broader political environment, Democrats hope for a long-shot win and currently leading the pack of potential nominees is Texas state Rep. James Talarico.

Talarico rose to prominence during the redistricting battle this summer as Texas Republicans voted to add five Republican districts to the state’s congressional map.

His main rival for the nomination is Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), whose Oct. 8 entry into the race prompted Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) to end his bid.

The primary race will be held on March 3, and any runoff races are scheduled for May 26.

2. Georgia

For years, Republicans have sought to reclaim at least one of the Peach State’s two Senate seats, which were won by Sens. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) in early January 2021 runoff elections.

This year, Ossoff has no Democratic rivals to fend off in the primary; while Republicans show a crowded field in their bid to reverse their losing streak in the state’s Senate races.

The top declared challengers in the Republican primary include Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.), and former football coach Derek Dooley.

Each has emphasized loyalty to Trump as they vie for an endorsement from the White House, though the president has so far stayed out of the race.

Outgoing Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp has endorsed Dooley.

The RCP average shows Collins currently leading the GOP field by almost 10 percent.

However, Ossoff leads in hypothetical match-ups with any of the three Republicans in the general election.

Georgia’s primary is set for May 19, 2026, and the primary runoff date is June 16, 2026.

3. Maine

Further up the Eastern Seaboard, a long-serving Republican could be facing her toughest political challenge yet.

First elected in 1996, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has bucked trends in New England, where all other federal office seats are held by Democrats.

Collins’s seat is a top target for Democrats. She was reelected in 2020 with 51 percent of the vote, fending off Democratic challenger Sara Gideon who won 42.4 percent.

Two major Democratic contenders seeking the nomination in the Pine Tree State are military veteran and political newcomer Graham Platner and Maine Gov. Janet Mills.

At the start of the election cycle, Platner’s populist and progressive brand of politics garnered attention from left-leaning Democratic voters nationwide, earning him the endorsement of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

However, his candidacy has faced difficulties following multiple scandals.

Mills’ candidacy has the backing of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).

Platner has a wide lead over Mills in the RCP average, which also shows that he would defeat Collins. Polling shows Collins winning a hypothetical matchup with Mills.

Maine’s primary is scheduled for June 9, 2026.

4. Michigan

In Michigan, Republicans hope to capitalize on incumbent Sen. Gary Peters’ (D-Mich.) retirement to win a key pickup in a state that has become synonymous with battleground politics in recent years.

Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) is the presumptive GOP nominee this year. Rogers was the Republicans’ nominee in the state’s 2024 Senate election, which he lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) by just 0.3 percent.

Trump has endorsed Rogers in the race.

However, in a race that still favors Democrats, the Democratic field is more competitive. So far, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and physician Abdul El-Sayed have thrown their hats in the ring.

McMorrow has said she would not support Schumer as Senate Democratic leader if she is elected. Establishment Democrats are supporting Stevens.

The RCP average shows Stevens with a narrow lead in the primary, and that Rogers would defeat those three candidates in a matchup.

Michigan’s primary election is scheduled for Aug. 4, 2026.

5. Ohio

Once upon a time, the Buckeye State was the definitive swing state, serving as a top target for both parties. But in recent years, it’s become nearly a lock for Republicans.

This year, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) hopes to change that—and make a political comeback after losing his seat in the state’s 2024 Senate election.

Brown served in the Senate from 2007 to 2025, before losing to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) in the 2024 election.

The seat up for grabs is currently occupied by Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), who was appointed by Gov. Mike DeWine to fill the seat after Vice President JD Vance assumed his current role.

The race this year is a special election, and the winner will serve out the remaining two years of Vance’s term.

The RCP average shows Husted, who has been endorsed by Trump, leading by 2.5 percentage points.

Ohio’s primaries are set for May 5, 2026.

6. North Carolina

North Carolina has long been viewed as a swing state, despite its results typically favoring Republicans.

This year, Republicans are seeking to hold the seat being vacated by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who is retiring.

Democrats’ chances in the race are bolstered by the decision of former Gov. Roy Cooper—a popular Democrat who has proven electable at a statewide level—to seek the post.

“I have thought on it and prayed about it, and I have decided: I want to serve as your next United States Senator, because, even now, I still believe our best days are ahead,” Cooper said in a video posted to his YouTube account on July 28.

Republicans are expected to field Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, who has been endorsed by Trump.

The RCP average shows Cooper, who served as governor from 2017 to 2025, leading Whatley by 4.7 percentage points.

The North Carolina primary will be held on March 3, 2026, and any runoffs are scheduled for May 12, 2026.

7. Nebraska

In Republican stronghold Nebraska, the Democrats don’t plan to field a candidate.

Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), who was appointed by the governor to fill the vacancy left by the retirement of Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), is the odds-on favorite to win the seat.

However, Republicans could still face a battle to hold the seat in 2026 in the form of independent candidate Dan Osborn.

In 2024, Osborn—who wouldn’t caucus with either party—came within 6.67 percent of winning the seat.

Nebraska’s primary is set for May 12, 2026.

8. New Hampshire

Though New Hampshire favors Democrats on a national level, Republicans hope to defy trends this year in the wake of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s (D-N.H.) retirement.

The Republican primary is a two-way race between former Sens. John E. Sununu (R-N.H.) and Scott Brown (R-Mass.).

Establishment Senate Republicans are supporting Sununu, who served in the Senate between 2003 and 2009.

The RCP average shows Sununu leading the primary race by 13 percentage points.

On the Democrat side, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) is the frontrunner.

In possible general election matchups, RCP polling shows Pappas with a narrow edge on Sununu and winning against Brown by double digits.

The primary election in New Hampshire is scheduled for Sept. 8, 2026.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 17:40

BofA CEO Moynihan: Trump's Tariff War Shifts Into De-Escalation Phase

The conversation between CBS Face the Nation’s Margaret Brennan and Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan on Sunday morning focused on the economic outlook for small businesses after nearly one year of the Trump administration’s ‘America First’ policies.

Moynihan discussed trade policy, tariffs, small businesses, labor, and immigration. He noted that, on the trade front, Trump’s trade war with many of America’s top trading partners was chaotic in early 2025 and caused significant concern among small businesses, a key client base for BofA. By the end of the year, however, that chaos had largely subsided.

Brennan asked BofA CEO:

In the past year, trade and tariffs—there were a lot of shocks to the system. It was a big concern. But Bank of America now projects that President Trump's strategy is one of de-escalation, not escalation. Does that mean you see this trade war with China cooling off?

Moynihan's response:

Well, I think if you go back to where we were in April, there was a lot of lack of understanding about what would end up being affected for small businesses. They were shocked—they'll be shocked—by the sheer size and volume of dollars across the board, etc. What you'd say now, as time has moved on, it's sort of 15% on one side, and then higher numbers based on people who won't commit to purchase from the US or will not commit to lowering their non-tariff barriers, things like that.

So the question—when I talk to foreign governments, they ask questions about, "What does this all mean for CEOs?" You've got a choice: you could be here, you just have to make choices. It's going to drive more towards America—come down to 15%, go to 10% across the board, 15% for the broad base of countries. Not a huge impact. And that's where our team says it is starting to de-escalate. You start seeing resolution discussions—15% here, different numbers.

When you put China in, it's a Chinese question because of national security interests: rare earth minerals, magnets, batteries, chips, AI—all this stuff. It's a very different case. I think also between Mexico, China, and the US—the USMCA, which has to be redone—is also a different case. But broadly in the world, you can see sort of an endpoint here, and now they've just got to work with it. It's got to work through the system.

Brennan then asked:

How much of a toll has that taken on small businesses? I understand Bank of America is the largest small business lender in the country...

Moynihan responded:

It was a big toll earlier this year because rates were going up—it cost more money because they borrow on revolving lines of credit... and they were on floating rates. And then tariffs came in and caused, "I'm not sure I can get the goods at what price and how I could commit."

As you went through the year, rates came down a little bit, so now their issue right now is labor—they need to get labor to bid contracts and do the work. Because immigration policies haven't settled in yet, that's causing people concern. It's not that they agree with them or disagree with them—just need to have an answer.

And that's, I think, across four policy regimes: tax, trade and tariffs, immigration, and ultimately deregulation. We've seen resolution of a lot of it. But I think the next one for small business—what they tell us—is labor availability.

How they get there is, "I need people to do this work, and I need to be dependable that they're here. So give me a set of rules, and I'll go play with them. I just need clarity on what the rules are."

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan says small business owners have concerns about the Trump administration’s immigration policies, not because “they agree with them or disagree with them,” but rather the “policies haven't settled in yet.”

“What they tell us is labor… pic.twitter.com/pPpXkCV07a

— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) December 28, 2025

What is very clear is that Trump’s America First policies have defied the apocalyptic consensus of mainstream economists, MSM complex, and the Democratic Party’s propaganda machine.

• The Apocalyptic Shortage That Never Happened: Democrats' Tariff Doomsday Narrative Imploded

Economic data show solid growth and controlled inflation, pointing to a robust 2026, just in time for the midterms, as Democrats search for their next doom-and-gloom narrative to flood the airwaves. Yet Democrats fail even to mention that much of the affordability crisis originated during the Biden-Harris regime years and their nation-killing globalist policies, which Trump officials have been correcting this year

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 17:20

Is The Gloom And Doom About An AI Dystopia Justified?

Authored by Arthur Schaper via American Greatness,

“Artificial intelligence does the work of many minds at once. Will human creativity flourish or fail?”

“Artificial intelligence will make us useless slaves. We must stop these abuses before they start!”

“AI will create killer robots! We’re doomed!”

I have heard various versions of the above concerns regarding the rise of robots, the growth of artificial intelligence, and the broader concerns about the moral and ethical dilemmas facing humanity as technological innovation advances—and then accelerates.

The gloom around AI is understandable but incorrect.

Technological innovation has always served as a winnowing process. Old jobs fall away, but new jobs take their place. Some career paths may disappear, but new opportunities take over.

No matter how sophisticated, artificial intelligence cannot replace human intelligence, wisdom, ingenuity, and entrepreneurship. AI can hone specialized skills for those who want to retain or maintain specific fields of craftsmanship, but craftsmen are not going away.

With special thanks to Canadian commentator JJ McCullough, AI makes it easier to create templates and ideas, but the quality and the taste of the pictures, objects, and ideas created are, on the surface, still cringeworthy. A machine cannot inspire, nor can it replicate the inspiration of the human spirit. Whatever stories, poems, or other forms of art that can come out of a ChatGPT prompt, the style and substance will never suffice or suffuse the human mind. Furthermore, the compact creations of Grok or Meta AI programs can’t reflect the inner tensions of man’s search for place or meaning in his world, including the scenes that he depicts. While AI can generate pictures or formulate ideas into pictures, it cannot create or enhance the contrasts, shades, and shadows that transform the ordinary into the extraordinary.

Of course, there is a growing number of artists and intellectuals ruggedly opposed to AI. They think that all creative works deserve assessment and praise based on the amount of effort put into the creation. Here’s the fundamental failure of the marketplace for leftists. Value is not determined by labor but by the interest or value of the consumer. No creation, no good, and no service has value in and of itself, but rather its value is based on what it produces. There you have the Austrian economics’ subjective theory of value.

Animators fear that AI will take their jobs away. AI might make it easier to produce films, but the fundamental characters and templates of individual actors, processions, and ideas will have to come from the people. The stunning beauty of Walt Disney’s “Snow White” still rivals the computer animation of DreamWorks.

Instead of limiting or bankrupting artists, AI will induce the general public to discern quality, and artists will strive to reflect that. The general public will have a greater appreciation for the abstract and avant-garde. That’s a win-win for artists.

We cannot predict how broad and commanding man’s ingenuity will be going forward. AI has provided a means for man to be more creative more quickly, but it cannot predict or anticipate the future wants and needs of the general public, either.

Man and his search for competence, recognition, and meaning will not disappear, but our lives will improve in the search for answers.

Another fear about rapid mechanization and advancement of AI was that there would be such widespread unemployment that governments and peoples would have to invest in universal basic incomes.

Industries that promoted the upkeep and well-being of horses fell into decline with the arrival of the automobile. Animal enthusiasts, performers, and general-interest equestrians still own horses, ride them, and enjoy their company. The horse-riding industry was limited, but it became more specialized.

But specialized careers employ fewer people. Where’s the comfort, then? Consider the moment when banks switched to automatic in the 1970s. There was widespread fear that automated teller machines, ATMs, would put thousands of people out of work. The opposite happened. Banks shifted their services to more customer-related features. With the increased savings, these financial firms opened up more branches, and they ended up having to hire more people! Free enterprise does entail creative destruction, but there always follows a creative proliferation!

Furthermore, it’s rather arrogant for labor leaders and liberal pundits to claim that “There will be no jobs left.” Human wants and needs are constantly changing. Steve Jobs created the portable phone with Internet before there was a thought, let alone a want, for the phone. Once he invented the nifty device, everyone had to have one. The innovations often create the need because of the facility and agility they provide to the consumer.

Even now, reports are listing the jobs that AI cannot replace. Human beings will always have employment opportunities.

Besides, if AI became so sophisticated that all jobs became obsolete, then that would mean the AI could provide for all human needs, thus eliminating concerns about economic privation and starvation.

We’ve dispensed with the gloom.

But what about the doom?

Are we on the verge of the T-800 and T-1000 making war on the human race? Hasta la vista, baby!

Will we see “I, Robot” become reality? A recent video of Chinese engineers fending off a robot prototype, which began thrashing its arms and legs wildly—and violently—raised these concerns. Another article described how an AI program deleted all the software of a company, ruining the productivity and preeminence of the company.

Artificial intelligence that can recognize itself opens serious ethical concerns. Will they attack us? Will they make war on us? We should not be naïve enough to ignore such a possibility. Is it ethical to treat mechanical creations, acting as our servants, with any form of disdain or disrespect? When do we discuss the rights of robots and the responsibilities of human beings in connection to these creations (creatures)?

Instead of focusing on job losses, AI discussions should focus on ethical concerns, and we must ponder the answers. No one wants to face the fate of Dave in “2001: A Space Odyssey” or the Epsilons in “Brave New World.”

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 17:00

Trump-Bibi Meeting: US Will "Knock The Hell" Out Of Iran If Nuke Sites Rebuilt

Among the more notable moments during President Trump's visit with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu while hosting him at the Mar-a-Lago resort Monday, came when the two discussed potential future military action against Iran.

Trump threatened to "knock the hell" out of Iran if the country starts rebuilding its nuclear program again, after the US major June 'bunker-busting' strikes on three nuclear facilities as part of the June war.

AFP via Getty Images

Trump warned that the US would "have to knock them down" if there are any signs of reconstruction at either Fordow, Natanz, or Isfahan. 

He said the following while standing beside his close Israeli ally Netanyahu:

"Now I hear that Iran is trying to build up again," Trump said. "And if they are we're going to have to knock them down."

"We'll knock the hell out of them," Trump added. "But hopefully that's not happening."

This is music to Netanyahu's ears, also as he reportedly pressed his US counterpart on greenlighting possible new strikes on Iranian ballistic missile sites, which Israel says constitutes a threat to the whole region.

Another interesting moment came when Trump encouraged Israel to "get along" with Syria, after constant and ongoing military incursions into Syrian territory.

Somewhat comically, Trump said: "The new President of Syria is working very hard to do a good job, he really is... You're not going to get a choir boy to lead Syria... So, I hope they're going to get along."

'Choir boy' likely alludes to the fact that President Ahmed Sharaa is the founder of al-Qaeda in Syria, and once was even the envoy of the head of ISIS.

When Assad was overthrown in December of last year, this took out a major player in the 'pro-Iran axis' in the region, and removed a big problem for Israel. Of course, Syria also had the best Russian-made anti-air defenses in the whole region. But now Syria is fragmented and weak, and easier for Israel to control, just as Netanyahu and the US-Gulf axis desired.

Trump delivers a strong pro-Israel statement, says Netanyahu has done a tremendous job defending his country and working with his administration and warns that they may team up again in another big victory if Iran gets cute. pic.twitter.com/xnsoKNeTTc

— Max Abrahms (@MaxAbrahms) December 29, 2025

As for Gaza, the two leaders agreed that there should be a deal to continue the Gaza ceasefire "quickly" - but it remains that disarming Hamas is the main sticking point.

But this is easier said than done, as Hamas still has enough armed members to keep an insurgency going, even if on a small scale, possibly for years to come.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 16:40

'Above Average'

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

“The left can act with an insane decentralized unanimity typically seen only in the insect kingdom.”

- Curtis Yarvin

All winters are winters of discontent, but some winters are more discontented than others, and this one is like being stuck in a smoke-filled sod hut on the lonely prairie, with lice crawling under your hair-shirt, while a sleet-storm rages outside. . . . And it was only just Christmas days ago!

Immigrants, legal and otherwise, are the gifts that keep on giving.

Minnesota is acting all indignant now over the discovery that its many thousands of Somali guests made a major industry of looting the government. What is it with Garrison Keillor’s upright descendants of the pioneers? I guess they’re not as “above average” as he used to tell us.

The fellow in charge, for instance, was one Tim Walz, recently a candidate for Veep, if you can believe it. He seemed oblivious to the scam-o-rama going on, though the “Little Mogadishu” neighborhood in Minneapolis is only a couple of miles from the governor’s mansion across the Mississippi River in St. Paul.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, flummoxed

You must wonder: does he know any of these people?

Does he consort with their representative in Congress, Ms. Ilhan Omar who, just this year happened to come into a $30-million fortune.

(Did Nancy Pelosi tutor Rep. Omar on stock-picking?)

The Somali racketeering network is alleged to have stolen billions of tax dollars for empathy-dripping social services programs such as “Feeding Our Future,” housing stabilization, autism therapy services, day-care, and Covid-19 relief measures.

These were a mix of state and federal funds funneled through Medicaid, with the feds covering roughly 50-60 percent of costs, all administered by the state government. The fraud proceeds were primarily spent on personal luxury items (cars, homes, travel), real estate (including overseas), or transferred abroad to Somali terror groups such as al-Shabaab associated with al Qaeda.

Governor Walz declared, “Minnesotans have no tolerance for fraud. That’s why we created a state law enforcement unit to investigate and hold people accountable for these crimes, and why I’m calling on the legislature to pass our comprehensive anti-fraud package.” Another son of the prairie, Senator Everett Dirksen of Illinois (d. 1969) once cracked, “. . . a billion here, a billion there, sooner or later you’re talking about real money.” FBI Director Kash Patel “surged” a big unit of his agents to the Land o’ Lakes to have a closer look at the situation. So far, federal prosecutors have secured convictions (many through guilty pleas) of over sixty Somalis and the American who ran the non-profit org Feeding Our Future, Aimee Bock, described as “the ringleader.”

Prosecutors say those associated with the org defrauded the Federal Child Nutrition Program of nearly $250 million through Minnesota’s Department of Education.

The feds identified millions of dollars in several bank accounts associated with Bock, as well as more than $13,000 in cash found in her home. KSTP-TV Eyewitness News, Minneapolis said, “Bock was also convicted of accepting kickback payments, or bribes, and funneling money to her boyfriend at the time, one Empress Watson.”

Say, what. . . ? A boyfriend named. . . Empress? Is it possible that Governor Walz is not personally acquainted with Aimee Bock?

The New York Times apparently decided that the Minnesota scandal was not worth reporting. Islamophobia, you understand. Instead, the Sunday edition carried this story:

Perhaps the most interesting twist in the Great Minnesota Grift is how money bounced out of the various social service fraud operations into the coffers of Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party politicians. State Attorney General Keith Ellison collected donations totaling around $10,000–$15,000 from multiple defendants or affiliates shortly after a 2021 meeting where future fraudsters discussed state oversight issues. His son, Minneapolis City Council Member Jeremiah Ellison, pulled in up to $9,000 at a 2021 fundraiser from multiple future defendants. Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey accepted roughly $9,000 from nine defendants or affiliates. (His office later vowed to return or donate the funds.) Rep. Ilhan Omar got her beak wet for $7,000. There may be much more “smurf” donation grifting behind those via the political action committee ActBlue’s straw donor schemes. Stand by on that one.

One special outrage that flew under the radar this holiday season surfaced after Christmas: In November, Minnesota Judge Sarah West (DFL Party) tossed out a jury’s unanimous guilty verdict against one Abdifatah Yusuf of Promise Health Services, convicted of masterminding a $7.2-million Medicaid fraud.

She based her reversal on the prosecution failing to exclude other reasonable, rational inferences inconsistent with Yusuf’s guilt.

That’s rich. Is the prosecution obliged to provide alibis for the guy they’re prosecuting? Maybe in Minnesota, with its above average legal code. Anyway, Yusuf just walked. End of story. Maybe.

Tune in Friday, readers, for the annual forecast of the year-to-come. Making predictions is a mugg’s game, I admit, but a necessary ceremony nonetheless. I will do my level best.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 16:20