Individual Economists

Crude Prices Tumble To 3-Mo-Lows As Saudis Push To Accelerate OPEC+ Production Boost

Zero Hedge -

Crude Prices Tumble To 3-Mo-Lows As Saudis Push To Accelerate OPEC+ Production Boost

Oil pries are tumbling further this morning following reports that OPEC+ leader Saudi Arabia wants the group to consider reviving more oil production ahead of its scheduled return at the end of next year to reclaim market share.

Bloomberg reports that, according to people familiar with the matter, key alliance members will hold a video conference on Sunday that will consider what to do with a 1.66 million barrels a day tranche of halted supplies, having just fast-tracked the return of a previous layer over the past five months.

“Our latest soundings from the group suggest they are very much considering unwinding that final tranche” of halted supply “sooner rather than later,” Livia Gallarati, global crude lead at Energy Aspects Ltd., said in a Bloomberg television interview.

WTI tumbled back to a $61 handle - at three month lows - after the headlines...

While extra supply would be a boon for consumers and a win for Trump, it’s a financial threat for producers from the US shale industry to OPEC+ members themselves.

The move would underscore a clear pivot by OPEC+ toward defending market share and not prices.

Delegates from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have said the Saudis are eager to claw back sales volumes ceded to rivals like US shale drillers. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will visit Washington in November to meet President Donald Trump, who has called for lower fuel prices.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 09:03

August Employment Report: 22 thousand Jobs, 4.3% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk -

From the BLS: Employment Situation
Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in August (+22,000) and has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, also changed little in August. A job gain in health care was partially offset by losses in federal government and in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down by 27,000, from +14,000 to -13,000, and the change for July was revised up by 6,000, from +73,000 to +79,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 21,000 lower than previously reported.
emphasis added
Employment per monthClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Total payrolls increased by 22 thousand in August.  Private payrolls increased by 38 thousand, and public payrolls decreased 16 thousand (Federal payrolls decreased 15 thousand).

Payrolls for June and July were revised down by 21 thousand, combined.  The economy lost jobs in June.
Year-over-year change employment The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In August, the year-over-year change was 1.47 million jobs.  Year-over-year employment growth is slowing.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.3% in August, from 62.2% in July. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio was unchanged at 59.6% from 59.6% in July (blue line).
I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was increased to 4.3% in August from 4.2% in July.

This was below consensus expectations and June and July payrolls were revised down by 21,000 combined.  
A weak report.
I'll have more later ...

Trump Ready To Place More US Troops In Poland Amid Russia Threat

Zero Hedge -

Trump Ready To Place More US Troops In Poland Amid Russia Threat

Authored by RFE/RL Staff via OilPrice.com,

  • Trump told President Karol Nawrocki the U.S. is prepared to expand its 8,000-strong military presence in Poland.

  • The meeting underscores Warsaw’s push for stronger U.S. security guarantees amid Russia’s war on Ukraine.

  • Nawrocki, a conservative close to Trump’s movement, won the election narrowly on a “Poland first” platform while pledging support for Ukraine but opposing NATO membership.

US President Donald Trump told his Polish counterpart the United States was ready to increase its military presence in the Central European nation, one of the countries on NATO’s so-called “eastern flank” warily watching Russia's actions.

Trump welcomed conservative President Karol Nawrocki to Washington in an event highlighted by a flyover of US F-16 fighter jets honoring a Polish military pilot who had died last month in a crash.

Asked if he planned to keep US forces deployed to Poland, Trump replied in the affirmative.

"We'll put more there if they want," he added, while citing the United States’ "tremendous relationship" with Poland, one of the more important military and political allies of Ukraine during its war with Russia.

"We never even thought in terms of removing soldiers from Poland."

"We're with Poland all the way, and we'll help Poland protect itself," Trump added.

Warsaw has long sought an increased US military presence in Poland. The United States has based troops in Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and other European nations since the end of World War II, initially to serve as a deterrence to Soviet aggression on the Continent.

The first permanently stationed US troops arrived in Poland in March 2023. There are an estimated 8,000 US troops now garrisoned in Poland, some on a rotational basis.

Nawrocki added that it is "the first time in history" that Poland has been happy to host foreign troops.

Nawrocki, a vocal admirer of the US leader, said after the talks with Trump that the two presidents had discussed bolstering troop levels, adding that Trump had strongly guaranteed Poland's security.

"The success of his [Nawrocki's] special relationship with the MAGA movement and with President Trump would be if the United States increased its presence in Poland," Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told reporters a day earlier -- a reference to Trump's "Make America Great Again" movement.

Nawrocki was elected in a narrow contest following a campaign echoing many of Trump's slogans and had promised a "Poland first" policy, worrying some in Europe over the country's support for Ukraine in its war against Russia.

The election result dealt a major setback to Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a pro-Europe, centrist leader and vocal supporter of Ukraine who had backed Nawrocki's liberal opponent.

Nawrocki, too, has voiced support for Ukraine in its war against invading Russian forces. But he has said he opposes NATO membership for Ukraine, a view more and more Poles appear to share.

Although largely supportive of Kyiv's fight against Russia, many Poles have grown impatient with the influx of some 1.5 million Ukrainian war refugees and the related costs in the country.

Despite some tensions within the Polish leadership, the European Union, and the United States, Nawrocki said there is unity and clarity about the Russian threat.

“Regardless of the differences that exist within the European Union, regardless of the differences that exist in Poland between me and the Polish government, I guarantee that on security matters, including at this closed meeting, I spoke unequivocally about how I perceive [Russian President] Vladimir Putin and the threat he poses to the free world,” Nawrocki said.

Trump said that "you'll see things happen" if Putin does not move toward peace in his war on Ukraine, building on his long-standing threats of sanctions or tariffs on Moscow.

"I have no message to President Putin. He knows where I stand, and he'll make a decision one way or the other," Trump told reporters.

A White House official told AFP that Trump plans to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on September 4, along with other European leaders.

Zelenskyy and Kyiv's European allies in the "Coalition of the Willing" are scheduled to meet on September 4 in Paris to discuss the situation in Ukraine and potential security guarantees for the country following any peace deal with Russia.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 07:45

Broadcom Jumps Most In Months After $10 Billion OpenAI Chip Order

Zero Hedge -

Broadcom Jumps Most In Months After $10 Billion OpenAI Chip Order

Broadcom shares jumped the most since April in premarket trading, assuming the gains hold into the cash session, after a Financial Times report earlier said the chipmaker will produce a line of artificial intelligence chips for OpenAI. The new chips, set to enter series production next year, will reduce the ChatGPT maker's reliance on Nvidia. 

On Thursday, Broadcom CEO Hock Tan announced that a new customer had placed a $10 billion order for AI chips. While Tan did not disclose the customer's identity, FT sources confirmed it was OpenAI, noting that the new chips are scheduled to ship in 2026.

The market reaction in premarket trading sent Broadcom shares in New York up by more than 9%. If these gains are held into the cash session, this would make the largest daily increase since shares jumped nearly 20% in early April. Year-to-date, shares are up 32% (as of Thursday's close). 

Shares are headed for the largest daily increase in months. 

Rally continues. 

FT sources said OpenAI plans to use the new chips internally. The move mirrors strategies by tech giants such as Amazon, Google, and Meta, which have all developed their own chips to handle massively increasing AI workloads.

Here's more from the outlet:

On a call with analysts, Tan announced that Broadcom had secured a fourth major customer for its custom AI chip business, as it reported earnings that topped Wall Street estimates.

Broadcom does not disclose the names of these customers, but people familiar with the matter confirmed OpenAI was the new client. Broadcom and OpenAI declined to comment.

Tan said the deal had lifted the company's growth prospects by bringing "immediate and fairly substantial demand", shipping chips for that customer "pretty strongly" from next year.

Commenting on Broadcom's earnings and new AI chip customer, Goldman analyst James Schneider told clients that third-quarter results were solid with upside guidance, and that securing OpenAI as a customer is a huge win that reinforces the bull case:

Key stock takeaways: We expect the stock to trade up following a solid quarter with guidance above the Street, despite elevated expectations heading into the quarter. We believe the most significant development was Broadcom's announcement that it has converted another new custom silicon customer focused on inference, which is expected to help drive "material" upside to management's prior expectation of AI Semiconductor revenue growth of ~60% in 2026. The company's AI Networking prospects remain compelling heading into 2026 with significant scale-up and scale-out opportunities driven by its Tomahawk 6 and Jericho 4 products. Management noted that it currently has a total backlog of over $110bn, which implies significant business visibility over the next two years. Finally, the company announced that CEO Hock Tan has announced his intention to remain CEO through at least 2030. We remain Buy rated on Broadcom as we see the company remaining the leader in AI custom compute and merchant networking silicon (which is likely to grow in importance), and we believe the company's enterprise software portfolio is under-appreciated.

Quarterly results were in line with the Street: Broadcom reported revenue of $16.0 bn, above GS and the Street (Visible Alpha) at $15.9 bn. Gross margin of 78.4% was in line with GS at 78.5% and modestly above the Street at 78.2%. Operating margin of 65.5% was in line with GS and the Street at 65.4%. Operating EPS of $1.69 was modestly below GS at $1.73 and above the Street at $1.67. AI Semiconductor revenue of $5.2 bn was in line with GS at $5.2 bn and above the Street at $5.1 bn. Semiconductor Solutions revenue of $9.2 bn was in line with GS at $9.2 bn and modestly above the Street at $9.1 bn. Infrastructure Software revenue of $6.8 bn was above GS and the Street at $6.7 bn.

Other analyst commentary on the Street (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Bloomberg Intelligence

  • "Broadcom's strong fiscal 3Q and 4Q guidance beat across all metrics, but more specifically its AI revenue, suggests better- than-anticipated AI custom application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) ramp-ups at its two large customers"

JPMorgan (overweight, PT to $400 from $325)

  • Broadcom reported better-than-expected 3Q results and issued solid 4Q revenue outlook "driven by accelerating AI demand" 

  • "This performance puts Broadcom on track to drive ~$20B in AI revenues for FY25"

Bernstein (outperform, PT $400)

  • Broadcom's 3Q earnings were good "with both semis and software better than expected"

  • "While non-AI semis remain slow to recover AI semis revenues were quite strong"

CFRA

  • "AI momentum remains robust with 11 consecutive quarters of growth and hyperscaler infrastructure investments driving sustained demand for custom accelerators"

  • "We expect continued outperformance through CY 2026"

Evercore ISI (outperform, PT $342)

  • This was a beat-and-raise report, with AI revenue ahead of Evercore's expectations

Meanwhile, OpenAI's deal with Broadcom means less reliance on Nvidia's graphics chips. Shares of Nvidia fell about 1% in premarket trading. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 07:07

10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

‘The Einstein of Wall Street’: How I Became the Face of the Wall Street Trader: It all began with a picture taken in February 2007. But my own Wall Street story started long before that. (Wall Street Journal)

The US Population Could Shrink in 2025, For the First Time Ever: It’s a story with massive economic and political significance. But it’s receiving strangely little attention. (Derek Thompson)

The unstoppable dollar meets the immovable Mr Trump: History tells us there are now enough shocks to decisively end the 2011–2025 dollar upcycle. (Investment Institute) (Ninety One)

How—and Why—U.S. Capitalism Is Unlike Any Other: The main difference between America’s brand of capitalism and elsewhere: a focus on the individual and an incentive to take risks. (Wall Street Journal)

Do Simple Stock-Picking Formulas Still Work? Popular quantitative formulas have delivered strong returns, but there is no one-size-fits-all investing solution. (MorningStar)

Don’t like joining in? Why it could be your superpower: Some people spend their lives feeling out of place in groups – but this tendency comes with unique opportunities. (The Guardian)

Independent journalist Molly White knows how to follow the memecoin: The cryptocurrency and tech newsletter Citation Needed is pay-what-you-want. White currently has about 29,000 subscribers including about 2,400 paid subscribers despite the lack of a paywall. (Nieman Lab)

AI-Powered Drone Swarms Have Now Entered the Battlefield: In a new frontier for warfare, Ukraine is using technology to allow groups of drones to communicate and make decisions independent of their operator (WSJ)

President melds a fractious coalition: The six factions of Trumpworld: Trump’s coalition is built for internal conflict — held together by fealty to him, but riven by differences on immigration, tariffs, abortion and other policies. (Washington Post)

Emma Stone Is Becoming Our Modern-Day Katharine Hepburn and ‘Bugonia’ Proves It. With a shaved head, expert line deliveries and the assembly of another all-time memorable character, Emma Stone continues driving this golden age of cinema. She might just be our modern-day Katharine Hepburn. (Variety)

Be sure to check out our special edition of Masters in Business interview, with Neal Katyal, Milbank LLP partner and former acting Solicitor General of the US. We sat down in the studio on Wednesday, August 27th, just two days before the D.C. Court of Appeals issued its decision in VOS Selection vs Trump on Friday, August 29th, finding the Tariffs unlawful. We also spoke after the decision, and he laidf out the path forward to the Supreme Court.

 

People in Many Countries Consider the U.S. an Important Ally; Others See It as a Top Threat

Source: Pew Research

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

 

 

The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

UBS: Orsted Lawsuit Signals Wind Talks With Trump Admin "Not Going Well" 

Zero Hedge -

UBS: Orsted Lawsuit Signals Wind Talks With Trump Admin "Not Going Well" 

Revolution Wind LLC, co-owned by Orsted and Global Infrastructure Partners, sued the Trump administration on Thursday over last month's order halting construction of the 80%-complete Revolution Wind offshore project off Rhode Island. The multi-billion-dollar, 65-turbine wind farm was suspended by the Interior Department's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), which cited unspecified national security concerns.

The Orsted-backed wind farm venture sued the Trump administration in federal court in Washington. This came shortly before the attorneys general of Connecticut and Rhode Island announced lawsuits of their own in the U.S. District Court for Rhode Island to overturn the stop-work order on the wind farm project, which is slated to produce intermittent electricity (not reliable) for more than 350,000 homes. 

"The Stop Work Order is invalid and must be set aside because it was issued without statutory authority, in violation of agency regulations and procedures and the Fifth Amendment's Due Process Clause, and is arbitrary and capricious," the lawsuit stated. 

The lawsuit continued, "If unabated, the Stop Work Order will inflict devastating and irreparable harm on Revolution Wind. Revolution Wind has already spent or committed approximately $5 billion on the project, and will incur over $1 billion in breakaway costs if the project is cancelled, all of which Revolution Wind may lose if the unlawful Stop Work Order remains in effect." 

Last month, the BOEM issued a directive (read here) to halt all offshore construction activities on the Revolution Wind project. The order stems from a Presidential Memorandum issued on Jan. 20, which triggered a broad review of renewable projects on the Outer Continental Shelf.

BOEM listed items it wanted to address with the project:

  • Environmental protections

  • National security concerns (e.g., interference with U.S. defense/naval activity in the exclusive economic zone, high seas, territorial seas).

At a press conference earlier, Connecticut Attorney General William Tong called Trump's stop order an "all-out war" on wind power, adding, "This is an utterly unlawful and baseless — and frankly senseless and stupid stop-work order." 

While White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers told Bloomberg in a statement, "President Trump's day one executive order instructed agencies to review leases and permitting practices for wind projects with consideration for our country's growing demands for reliable energy, effects on energy costs for American families, the importance of marine life and fishing industry, and the impacts on ocean currents and wind patterns." 

Here's UBS analyst Dominic Ellis' first take on the legal spat:

Orsted announced it is suing the Trump administration in an effort to get the stop work order on Revolution Wind removed. This does not look to me like a sign that behind the scenes negotiations are going well. From memory, Equinor threatened a lawsuit over Empire Wind but never formally filed before the suspension was lifted. Though over 68% of Orsted shareholders have indicated they will vote to approve the rights issue at tomorrow's EGM, the key question now is how soon (if at all) Orsted can resolve its issues in the U.S. The lawsuit suggests a resolution is not imminent, in my opinion, though obviously its impossible to tell from the outside looking in. Connecticut and Rhode Island have also both announced they are suing the administration. 

Last month, Orsted shares in Denmark plunged due to the combination of a rights issue, a halt order on the wind farm, and overall pessimism across the green energy sector. 

The Trump administration is prioritizing reliable, cheap fossil fuel power generation, along with a nuclear plant pipeline that is expected to be operational later this decade, extending into the 2030s. All of this stable power is what's needed on fragile grids nationwide amid the AI data center supercycle. Green is too fragile. We wouldn't be surprised if a few 'Solyndra-style' implosions rock the green industry within Trump's second term.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 05:45

Top German Judge Says Overzealous ECHR 'Endangers The Existence Of Western Democracies'

Zero Hedge -

Top German Judge Says Overzealous ECHR 'Endangers The Existence Of Western Democracies'

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Hans-Jürgen Papier, Germany’s former chief justice and one of the country’s most senior legal scholars, has warned that the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) is undermining national sovereignty by creating what he called a “de facto right to immigration through the back door.”

The 82-year-old Ludwig Maximilian University professor, who led Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court at the start of Angela Merkel’s chancellorship, told The Times newspaper that a growing body of asylum case law from national courts and the ECHR in Strasbourg had created an “ever deeper reaching and ever more closely meshed agglomeration” of rulings. These, he said, were now “settling like mildew over the states’ political power to take action.”

In his view, the result has been a dramatic broadening of the right to asylum, far beyond what was originally intended under the Geneva Convention.

“The citizens expect those with political responsibility to revise the asylum policies to suit the changed circumstances. But that is in danger of failing because of the ossification of a body of law that is getting increasingly rarefied and ultimately looks irreversible to many politicians,” he said.

Papier criticized the way European courts have interpreted Articles 3 and 8 of the ECHR — the rights against inhuman treatment and to family life — to block deportations, including cases where asylum seekers could face homelessness or irregular work in other EU states.

“That simply goes too far,” he argued.

“Here, human dignity is being treated like small change and thereby robbed of its special dignified status.”

The former judge warned that the overzealous application of human rights laws by the ECHR was “generally destroying the European citizen’s trust in the capacity of their democratic institutions to act, and so at the end of the day endangering the existence of Western democracies.”

He called for reforms to the ECHR itself, though he admitted this was unlikely given the need for consensus among all 46 Council of Europe states. Instead, he suggested that the EU or national parliaments draft a “precisely formulated law of migration” that would reduce judges’ scope for interpretation and return asylum rights to the original Geneva standards.

Among his proposals are electronic asylum visas for those with a realistic chance of success, strict annual ceilings on “subsidiary protection” — a weaker asylum status covering people at risk of violence or hardship — and potential third-country solutions for processing applications abroad.

Papier has long been a critic of what he sees as Europe’s open-border approach. In an op-ed for the Bild newspaper in November 2023, he warned that “essentially nothing has changed” since the 2015 migration crisis. He accused Germany of allowing migrants to bypass the Dublin Regulation, which requires asylum seekers to lodge claims in the first EU country they enter, and insisted that Berlin should move “as quickly as possible” to introduce clear and enforceable rules.

“It is not about affecting the right to asylum for people who are actually being persecuted,” he wrote, “it is about protecting this right from being abused for reasons that are clearly unrelated to asylum.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 05:00

Watch: Brand-New Superyacht Sinks Minutes After Launch 

Zero Hedge -

Watch: Brand-New Superyacht Sinks Minutes After Launch 

Luxury motor yacht builder Medyılmaz Shipyard launched a 24-meter (or about 79-foot) superyacht named Dolce Vento, which capsized and sank just minutes into its maiden voyage earlier this week.

On Tuesday, Dolce Vento was launched from the Ereğli district of Zonguldak, Turkey, according to SuperYacht Times. Within about 15 minutes, the vessel developed a “stabilization issue,” began taking on water, and ultimately capsized, the yachting news website wrote in a report. 

SuperYacht Times provided more color on the vessel:

Dolce Vento was built at Medyılmaz Shipyard with construction beginning in 2024. The 160 GT motor yacht features a steel hull and aluminium superstructure and was known as NB65 while in-build.

The owner of the vessel was not named in the report. 

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 04:15

Microplastics Are Linked To Heart Disease - Here's How To Lower Your Risk

Zero Hedge -

Microplastics Are Linked To Heart Disease - Here's How To Lower Your Risk

Authored by Ellen Wan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Tiny yet treacherous, microplastics have infiltrated our bodies, silently wreaking havoc on our health. Emerging research reveals their alarming link to weakened immune systems, increased risk of heart disease, and even early death.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) offers a time-honored solution, aiming to restore balance in the body and help protect against these widespread pollutants.

Microplastics Can Stay in the Body

Microplastics enter the human body through food, air, and skin contact. A study published in the Archives of Toxicology in June identified polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate, and polyacrylonitrile nanoparticles in autopsy samples. These findings show that microplastics can pass through biological barriers and accumulate in specific tissues. The highest levels were found in the thyroid, kidneys, and brain tissues.

Lo Yueh-Hsia, an associate professor from the Department of Life Sciences at Taiwan’s National Central University, shared that microplastics have been detected in human blood. This suggests that not all microplastics are excreted through feces or urine. Some may stay in the body, and how they are broken down and eliminated is still unclear.

How Microplastics Affect Hormones and Immunity

More than 10,000 chemicals are used in plastic production, including plasticizers, flame retardants, colorants, and ultraviolet stabilizers—many of which are proven endocrine disruptors, such as bisphenol A. These substances can interfere with hormone function, harm the reproductive system, and weaken the immune system.

Studies show that microplastics may trigger inflammation. When they build up in the spaces around cells, they can block communication pathways and prevent immune cells from responding properly.

Microplastics May Increase Risk of Heart Disease and Stroke

Growing evidence suggests a link between microplastics and impaired cardiovascular function. A 2024 study in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology found that microplastics and nanoplastics may damage blood vessels and promote clotting through several toxic effects.

Extremely powerful antioxidant... check it out

Dr. Chia-Ming Chang, an attending physician in the Department of Medical Genetics and Eugenics at Taipei Veterans General Hospital, told The Epoch Times that microplastics lingering in blood vessels can attract immune cells, initiating repair processes and triggering chronic inflammation. This worsens the risk of atherosclerosis—fatty buildup in the arteries—and thrombosis—blood clot formation—increasing the likelihood of stroke and death.

A study in The New England Journal of Medicine found that, over a 34-month follow-up period, patients with microplastics detected in their carotid artery plaques had a higher risk of stroke, death, or other serious events than those without detectable microplastics.

How TCM May Help Lower Risk

Conventional medicine currently focuses on limiting exposure, drinking enough water, and eating more fiber to promote excretion. However, TCM takes a different route—strengthening the body’s defenses and detox systems to make it harder for toxins to take hold in the first place.

Dr. Jingduan Yang, CEO of Northern Medical Center in New York, told The Epoch Times: “In TCM, we see microplastics as a modern toxin. When the body’s vital energy is deficient, foreign substances can invade and lodge in tissues. The key is to strengthen the body’s metabolic and detoxification functions to address the problem at its root.”

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 03:30

France Issues Arrest Warrant For Syria's Assad, Who's Believed Living In "Russia's Beverly Hills"

Zero Hedge -

France Issues Arrest Warrant For Syria's Assad, Who's Believed Living In "Russia's Beverly Hills"

France this week issued an arrest warrant for Syria's ex-President Bashar al-Assad, who has been living in Russia under the protection of the Putin government, after he was overthrown on December 8 by invading Hayat Tahrir al-Sham forces under Jolani (and backed by external governments).

A French court additionally issued arrest warrants for seven former top Syrian officials. It charges that Assad committed war crimes as his forces allegedly bombed a press center in Homs in February 2012, which killed prominent American journalist Marie Colvin and French photographer Remi Ochlik, along with injuring others.

via Associated Press

Her death drove US and world headlines, and came at a height of global coverage of Syria, and at a moment then President Barack Obama began to more openly call for regime change in Damascus.

Mainstream media claimed a 'democratic uprising' against Assad led by 'moderate rebels' - though many of the same outlets would years later be forced to admit that Al-Qaeda and ISIS-linked militants were at the forefront of the regime change efforts. Western and Gulf intelligence agencies were supporting and stoking jihadist factions as well.

An anti-Assad opposition outlet, Syrian Centre for Media and Freedom of Expression, apparently helped with the new legal action and warrant for Assad.

It said in a statement, "The judicial investigation clearly established that the attack on the informal press centre in Bab Amr was part of the Syrian regime’s explicit intention to target foreign journalists in order to limit media coverage of its crimes and force them to leave the city and the country."

The death of Colvin and her colleagues occurred reportedly when a rocket hit the "informal press center" on February 22, 2012. This was alleged as a "targeted bombing" - however, some independent analysts questioned at the time what Assad would have to gain from going out of his way to deliberately kill a leading journalist who worked for London's Sunday Times.

As for Assad, he's believed to be residing with his family at an unknown location in Moscow. He's not made a single statement since being ousted and sent into exile. One report says:

Six months after fleeing Syria following the fall of his regime, former President Bashar al-Assad is reportedly living in opulent exile in Moscow, sheltered from justice but under intense secrecy and likely surveillance by his Russian hosts.

According to an investigative report by France Info, Assad arrived in Russia on December 8, 2024, after being ousted by the Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The report places him in the ultra-luxurious “City of Capitals” complex in Moscow's business district, though alternative sources point to the elite Rublyovka suburb, often referred to as “Russia’s Beverly Hills.”

There's been much reporting and speculation over how his government fell so rapidly, with one prime theory involving an Israeli-backed (or other foreign intel agency) hack of his high military's command's communications systems.

Marie Colvin, file image

Certainly the US-led sanctions, combined with American troop occupation of Syria's oil and gas fields, greatly contributed and kept the population in misery. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 02:45

EU Flag Ordered Removed From Polish President's Office: Report

Zero Hedge -

EU Flag Ordered Removed From Polish President's Office: Report

Via Remix News,

Polish President Karol Nawrocki ordered the European Union flag removed from his office, and now, other officials have followed his example, Polish newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza reported.

The source cited by Gazeta Wyborcza stated that removing the EU flag from the office was one of the first decisions after Nawrocki moved into the Presidential Palace.

“No order was issued in this regard, but everyone considered it a signal to take down the flags wherever they were,” the source said.

According to the same report, Paweł Szefernaker, head of the President’s Office, also removed the EU flag from his office.

However, Gazeta Wyborcza may be making the issue bigger than it actually is, as the EU flag is still present outside the building, where it is supposed to be most visible.

The head of state’s spokesman, Rafał Leśkiewicz, told Gazeta Wyborcza that the EU flag “is present” in the Presidential Chancellery. He emphasized that three flags were present during Karol Nawrocki’s statements last week: the Polish flag, NATO, and the EU flag.

“The spokesman did not provide any response regarding the removal of the EU flag from the head of state’s office. Photographs from Andrzej Duda’s presidency show that the EU flag was there, standing next to the white-and-red one,” according to Gazeta Wyborcza.

The paper is not known to be friendly to Nawrocki. In a commentary published on the newspaper’s front page on Wednesday, Wojciech Maziarski writes that “the president is having EU flags displayed during some of his speeches, just for show, to mislead public opinion and lull the vigilance of those citizens who are terrified by the prospect of Poland’s strategic isolation.”

Let’s not underestimate this gesture. It’s not a curiosity about the interior design of government offices, but a political declaration indicating the goals of the man who, by the will of a tiny majority of voters, became the leader of our country. The declaration is all the more important because it was not made public,” the columnist writes.

Notably, the columnist wrote that the democratic winner of the election only won by the “will of a tiny majority of voters.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 02:00

The Rise Of A Multipolar World Order: The West Just Watched The World Shift In Tianjin

Zero Hedge -

The Rise Of A Multipolar World Order: The West Just Watched The World Shift In Tianjin

Authored by Prof. Ruel F. Pepa via GlobalResearch.ca,

At the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin, leaders representing over half of humanity signaled the rise of a multipolar world order. As China, Russia, India, and Central Asia push new financial and trade systems, the West risks being left on the sidelines.

When the leaders of China, Russia, India, and several Central Asian states gathered in Tianjin last week for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit, the world should have paid far closer attention. Collectively, the countries represented at the table account for more than half of humanity, command immense reserves of natural resources, and increasingly drive a larger share of global GDP. This is not a peripheral coalition but a core pillar of the international system in the making.

Yet much of the Western press treated the gathering as little more than a diplomatic sideshow, overshadowed by domestic political debates or the latest updates from NATO. That was a mistake. What unfolded in Tianjin was not just another regional summit. It was the clearest indication yet that the unipolar world of U.S. primacy, which dominated the decades after the Cold War, is giving way to a new and contested multipolar order.

The symbolism was unmistakable. Beijing positioned the SCO as a platform for “equal partnership,” implicitly contrasting it with Western alliances built around hierarchy and U.S. leadership. Moscow emphasized strategic coordination in the face of sanctions and military pressure from the West. India, while carefully balancing its ties with Washington, underscored its role as a civilizational power charting an independent path. The Central Asian republics, long seen as geopolitical battlegrounds between outside powers, asserted their relevance as connectors of trade, energy, and security across Eurasia.

Beyond symbolism, the summit carried substance. Agreements on energy cooperation, cross-border infrastructure, digital technology, and security coordination point toward an increasingly institutionalized bloc. Taken together, they signal that the SCO is evolving from a loose forum into a framework capable of shaping the rules of the 21st-century world.

For policymakers in Washington and European capitals, the lesson is sobering. Ignoring the SCO or dismissing it as a talking shop risks overlooking the consolidation of an alternative power center that is steadily building legitimacy outside of Western institutions. For the rest of the world, particularly in the Global South, Tianjin served as a reminder that power is no longer concentrated in a single pole, but dispersed across multiple capitals with diverging visions of order.

The summit was therefore more than a diplomatic calendar entry. It was a milestone in the slow but unmistakable rebalancing of global power and a process that will define international politics for decades to come.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the SCO Summit. (GODL-India)

A New Architecture Emerges

Chinese President Xi Jinping used the summit to press his vision of a world that renders Cold War mentalities a matter of the past. His remarks were not mere diplomatic pleasantries; they were a direct critique of the U.S.-led alliance system and its reliance on deterrence, sanctions, and bloc politics. Backed vocally by Vladimir Putin, Xi pledged to accelerate the creation of a multipolar order in which Western dominance would be checked by new centers of power across Eurasia and beyond [1].

What distinguished Tianjin from previous summits was that these calls were tied to concrete initiatives. Beijing unveiled a 10-year development strategy for the SCO, underwritten with billions of dollars in loans and grants earmarked for infrastructure, energy corridors, and digital connectivity projects [2]. This framework goes well beyond aspirational communiqués: it signals a deliberate attempt to institutionalize the SCO as both an economic and geopolitical force.

One of the boldest proposals on the table was the creation of a dedicated SCO development bank that poses an explicit challenge to the Bretton Woods institutions, particularly the IMF and World Bank. Such a body, if realized, would allow SCO members to finance projects without the conditionalities often imposed by Western lenders. It would also complement other Chinese-led initiatives such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Belt and Road Initiative, weaving them into a broader Eurasian financial ecosystem.

The implications are far-reaching. For decades, the global financial order has revolved around institutions headquartered in Washington and Brussels, shaping development trajectories in the Global South. By offering alternative sources of capital, Beijing and its partners are signaling that the monopoly of Western financial governance is coming to an end. The SCO’s proposed bank would not only fund railways, pipelines, and fiber-optic networks across Eurasia but also serve as a symbolic assertion of financial sovereignty.

The message from Tianjin was unambiguous: the institutions of the West will no longer go unchallenged. A parallel architecture emerging reflects the priorities of Beijing, Moscow, New Delhi, and the capitals of Central Asia. It is not yet clear how cohesive or durable this architecture will prove, but its mere existence underscores that the world has moved beyond unipolarity. The battle is no longer over whether the West will be challenged, but over how rapidly alternative institutions can be consolidated, and how effectively they can deliver.

Central Asia at the Core

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is increasingly positioning Central Asia as the backbone of the emerging multipolar world. Far from being a peripheral region, the Central Asian republics are becoming the crossroads of Eurasian connectivity and influence. Trade corridors linking Shanghai to St. Petersburg are facilitating the movement of goods, capital, and people across thousands of kilometers. Energy pipelines crisscross Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and beyond, ensuring that the region’s vast natural resources flow to both Chinese and Russian markets while integrating it into a broader strategic network. Meanwhile, digital “Silk Roads” are introducing Chinese standards for 5G, artificial intelligence, and telecommunications infrastructure, further embedding Beijing’s technological footprint across the continent [3].

For decades, Central Asia was largely treated as a geopolitical periphery, a buffer zone caught between the lingering influence of Russia and the rising ambitions of China. Moscow maintained traditional security ties and economic leverage, while

Beijing cultivated trade and investment links primarily through infrastructure projects. Western powers, by contrast, engaged only sporadically, mostly through development aid or counterterrorism initiatives. The region’s strategic importance was recognized, but its potential as a hub of independent, multipolar influence remained unrealized.

That era is now coming to an end. With the SCO providing both institutional frameworks and concrete projects, Central Asia is transitioning from a passive periphery to an active strategic heartland of the new order. Its cities, railways, pipelines, and digital networks are not just local assets but the connective tissue of a Eurasian system designed to operate largely independently of Western-dominated institutions. By anchoring trade, energy, and technology in Central Asia, Beijing, Moscow, and their partners are effectively recasting the region as a central node in the global architecture of power.

The implications are profound. Central Asia is no longer a “backyard” for external powers; it is a linchpin of geopolitical strategy, economic integration, and technological standard-setting. As the SCO continues to consolidate its influence, the region’s rising prominence underscores that multipolarity is not merely a distant aspiration; it is being physically and institutionally constructed, rail line by rail line, pipeline by pipeline, and gigabyte by gigabyte.

The Electro-Yuan Gambit

Perhaps the boldest and most consequential development in Tianjin was Chinese President Xi Jinping’s call to expand the use of the yuan in energy settlements.

Analysts quickly dubbed the concept the “electro-yuan,” a system designed to link China’s digital currency with cross-border trade in oil, gas, and electricity. Unlike conventional trade settlements, which rely on correspondent banking in U.S. dollars, the electro-yuan would enable real-time, blockchain-enabled transactions directly between SCO member states, bypassing traditional financial intermediaries.

This is about far more than convenience or modernization. If widely adopted, the electro-yuan could significantly weaken the petrodollar system, which has underpinned U.S. financial dominance since the 1970s. The dollar’s centrality in global energy markets has long allowed Washington to exert extraordinary influence over international finance and foreign policy. By creating a credible alternative settlement system, Beijing and its SCO partners would undermine this leverage, diminishing the reach of dollar-based sanctions and reducing the United States’ ability to enforce geopolitical objectives through financial pressure.

The implications extend beyond energy. A robust electro-yuan network could accelerate the internationalization of China’s digital currency, the e-CNY, and provide a model for other nations seeking to hedge against the dollar. Coupled with SCO-led development projects and cross-border trade corridors, it represents a deliberate attempt to construct the “plumbing” of a parallel financial system that operates on terms favorable to Eurasian partners rather than Western institutions.

The ripple effects for global markets could be profound. If SCO countries begin pricing energy, commodities, and infrastructure projects in yuan rather than dollars, it could reduce demand for U.S. currency reserves, influence exchange rates, and reshape global investment flows. Commodity markets may see shifts in pricing benchmarks, particularly in oil and natural gas, as the electro-yuan provides a viable alternative to the dollar-based contracts that dominate today. For investors and multinational corporations, reliance on the dollar as the default currency for trade and finance may gradually diminish, introducing new risks and opportunities in hedging, capital allocation, and currency management.

For policymakers in Washington and Brussels, the message is stark: the rules of global finance may be shifting beneath their feet. A system that decouples trade and investment from the dollar would not only reduce the United States’ economic influence but also recalibrate global alliances, making financial sovereignty a tangible tool of statecraft for countries like China, Russia, and their SCO partners.

In short, the electro-yuan is more than a financial experiment but a strategic gambit, signaling that the SCO is not content merely to challenge Western hegemony rhetorically. It is building the infrastructure that could one day rival, and perhaps circumvent, the very foundations of U.S.-led global economic power, with consequences that extend to every corner of the global market.

India’s Pragmatic Hedge

The presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Tianjin summit lent the gathering even greater weight and global significance. Historically cautious about Chinese-led initiatives, India has often approached regional multilateral frameworks with skepticism, wary of being overshadowed by Beijing or Moscow. Modi’s participation signaled a subtle but meaningful shift in India’s strategic calculus that acknowledged engagement, rather than isolation which is essential in a rapidly evolving multipolar world.

Image: Xi Jinping meeting with Narendra Modi (GODL-India)

At Tianjin, New Delhi agreed to concrete measures aimed at rebalancing trade with China, loosening visa restrictions, and enhancing connectivity initiatives within the SCO framework [4]. These steps demonstrate a willingness to separate economic pragmatism from ongoing territorial and border disputes, particularly in regions such as Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. By compartmentalizing these issues, India is signaling that it can cooperate on economic and regional integration while maintaining its security concerns.

For India, engagement in the SCO is not a matter of siding with Beijing or Moscow. Instead, it reflects a strategic hedging approach: mitigating the risks posed by tariff threats from Washington, strengthening resilience against supply chain disruptions, and ensuring that it cannot be sidelined from emerging Eurasian trade and infrastructure networks. By participating actively, India secures a voice in shaping regional rules and norms rather than remaining a passive observer to a process that will define the geopolitical landscape for decades.

This approach aligns with India’s broader foreign policy of “strategic autonomy” wherein flexibility is maintained to navigate between competing power centers while advancing national interests. At the same time, India continues to cultivate robust partnerships through the Quad (with the U.S., Japan, and Australia) and its growing bilateral ties with Washington. In practice, this means India is simultaneously engaging with China-led institutions like the SCO while strengthening security and technological cooperation with the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific bloc. This dual-track strategy allows New Delhi to hedge against uncertainty on multiple fronts: it ensures access to Eurasian markets and energy corridors without sacrificing strategic alignment with Western partners.

The Tianjin summit thus reflects a uniquely complex Indian strategy: neither confrontation nor unconditional alignment, but calculated engagement, ensuring that India remains both relevant and resilient as global power structures shift. By balancing its SCO participation with Quad commitments, India positions itself as a pivotal actor capable of bridging competing spheres of influence, maximizing strategic flexibility in an era defined by multipolar competition.

The West on the Sidelines

The Tianjin summit was a warning shot: the world is moving on, with or without the West. While Washington and Brussels continue to wield significant economic, military, and diplomatic power, their ability to unilaterally dictate global terms is steadily eroding. For decades, Western institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, NATO, and dollar-based financial systems served as the primary levers of influence, shaping trade, development, and security outcomes across the globe.

Today, however, alternative frameworks like the SCO are demonstrating that other nations can pursue prosperity and security without relying solely on Western guidance.

Across Eurasia, countries are increasingly prioritizing strategic autonomy over rigid alignment. They seek options that provide economic resilience, infrastructure development, and energy security without the political strings often attached to Western loans or alliances. From pipelines in Central Asia to digital connectivity projects extending China’s 5G standards, the SCO is offering practical alternatives that simultaneously advance regional integration and multipolar governance.

The message is clear: the rules and institutions of the West are no longer the only game in town. Nations that fail to recognize this realignment risk being left behind not just economically, but politically and strategically. Participation in emerging trade corridors, digital networks, and financial mechanisms will increasingly define influence in Eurasia and beyond. Those who ignore these shifts may find their voice diminished in global decision-making and their access to vital markets and resources constrained.

Moreover, the SCO’s rise signals a broader psychological shift. For decades, Western primacy framed global debates and set expectations of power projection.

Tianjin revealed a growing willingness among Eurasian states to assert their own terms, challenge Western norms, and pursue partnerships that align with their strategic interests rather than defaulting to U.S. or European approval. The West can no longer assume that its preferences will automatically shape outcomes; influence must now be earned, negotiated, and, in some cases, competed for.

In short, the Tianjin summit underscores a central truth of the emerging era: multipolarity is not a distant possibility as it is taking shape here and now. To remain relevant, Western policymakers must move beyond complacency and recognize that a world with the SCO at its center demands engagement on terms that are increasingly pluralistic, flexible, and contested. Ignoring this reality is not just shortsighted but a strategic liability.

A Multipolar Future

What unfolded in Tianjin was not the birth of a new Cold War but the emergence of something far more complex and consequential: a multipolar future in which the West is no longer the sole arbiter of global norms, trade, and security. This is not merely a shift in power; it is a transformation of the architecture of international relations. Multiple centers of influence such as Beijing, Moscow, New Delhi, and the capitals of Central Asia are actively shaping the rules, institutions, and economic flows that will define the 21st century. The West, powerful as it remains, is increasingly one participant among many rather than the default decision-maker.

The unipolar era of American dominance, which followed the Cold War, had its run, dictating the terms of finance, trade, and security for decades. The Tianjin summit, however, signaled that the next chapter will be written differently. The SCO is not simply a forum for dialogue; it is a deliberate effort to institutionalize an alternative framework for regional and global governance, encompassing trade, energy, technology, and finance. From the expansion of the yuan in energy settlements to infrastructure corridors across Central Asia, the SCO is constructing the material and institutional foundations of a multipolar order that can operate independently of Western-led institutions.

This new reality poses a strategic test for the West. Can Washington and Brussels adapt to a world in which their primacy is no longer assumed, and influence must be negotiated rather than imposed? Or will they risk being relegated to the sidelines, observing as new power centers define the economic rules, geopolitical alignments, and technological standards that will shape global affairs for decades to come?

Crucially, multipolarity is not zero-sum since it does not necessarily mean confrontation, but it does demand recognition that influence, leverage, and legitimacy are now dispersed. States and institutions that cling to a unipolar mindset may find themselves increasingly marginalized, while those capable of engaging with multiple power centers, hedging risks, and participating in alternative frameworks will thrive.

Tianjin was therefore more than a summit; it was a glimpse of the emerging world order in motion. The SCO, with its blend of economic initiatives, security coordination, and financial innovation, illustrates that the 21st century will be defined by complexity, interdependence, and competition among multiple poles of power. The central question now is whether the West will acknowledge and adapt to this new reality or allow others to shape the future on their own terms.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 23:50

Trump Tariffs Go From Terrifying To Indispensable To Prevent A Bond Market Crash

Zero Hedge -

Trump Tariffs Go From Terrifying To Indispensable To Prevent A Bond Market Crash

How long does it take for conventional wisdom to make a 180 degree U-turn? In the case of anything Trump related, it's just under 6 months.

It was in early April, just after Liberation Day's reciprocal tariffs were announced, that US bond markets suddenly cratered, sparking a collapse in hundreds of billions of basis trades, and triggered fears of a global economic shock. That's when tariffs were widely seen as bad and anyone who dared to say it's never that black or white - such as this website - were blasted as economic illiterates. Well, fast forward to today when quietly conventional wisdom has been turned on its head and the mere possibility of tariffs getting pulled is now seen as one of the biggest threats to the stability of the bond market!

That's right: if the Financial Times is to be believed - and it is, since it loathes Trump with a passion and would never say anything even remotely complementary if it could avoid it - Trump’s tariffs are now a key factor keeping Treasury investors on board (the same tariffs that were widely blamed for the relentless selling back in April). According to the paper, the tariff revenues - which so many of the establishment economists never even considered in April - are now seen as a crucial income stream that offsets the costs of the Big Beautiful Bill, and  investors are now counting on hundreds of billions of dollars raised by the remaining tariffs to offset Trump’s tax cuts and keep a lid on US borrowing.

“The only way I can see for the US government to reduce its outstanding debt in the near term is to use the tariff revenue,” said Andy Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities, citing also revenues from chipmakers’ China sales. “If all of the sudden the tariff revenue will not be there, that is a problem.”

Not only that, but as we noted two weeks ago, both S&P and Fitch recently conceded that tariff revenues for the US federal government were one factor that prevented them from downgrading the sovereign

The Congressional Budget Office last month forecast Trump’s tariffs would boost US government revenues by $4tn over the coming decade. That would help pay for tax cuts in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which is projected to increase borrowing by $4.1tn over the same period.

The shift in market sentiment comes after months of turmoil in Trump’s economic strategy, including his trade war with trading partners such as China and his attacks on the US Federal Reserve.


Indeed, the appeals court ruling - which overturns Trump's tariffs - was the catalyst behind the US Treasury bond sell-off on Tuesday and Wednesday, analysts said, as investors worried that reduced tariff revenues would lead to a greater glut of Treasury issuance. 

Thierry Wizman, a global rates strategist at Macquarie Group, said: “If the bulk of Trump’s tariff programme is nullified by the courts some analysts will cheer, inflation will subside, growth may improve, and the Fed may be more inclined to ease monetary policy. But if the focus is on debt and deficits at that time, the bond market may riot.”

He added: “The risk that tariffs go away but the [One Big Beautiful Bill Act] stays may become the dominant risk for [US Treasuries] over the next few weeks.”

Robert Tipp, head of global bonds at PGIM Fixed Income, said there was “a hope that tariff revenue can help control the budget deficit”.

To be sure, even with tariff revenues, investors warn about the daunting scale of the US government’s borrowing needs.

Des Lawrence, senior investment strategist at State Street Investment Management, said if the tariffs “were put on pause, it deprives Uncle Sam of a revenue source”. But the “bigger negative picture” is the sheer scale of government spending, he said. Without tariff revenue, the CBO expects US debt relative to GDP to surpass its second world war peak by 2029.

“It’s helpful in plugging a gap, but there’s still a big issue in America spending much more than it’s receiving,” Lawrence said, and he too is right as we showed a few weeks ago when we demonstrated that despite record tariff revenue, the US budget deficit hit a whopping $291bn in July, the second highest deficit for the month on record.

And now the fate of the US bond market is in the hands of a handful of supreme court justices, whose decisions are never taken on the merits of the underlying argument but are purely and unapologetically political. Last week, the Court of Appeals ruled against the Liberation Day tariffs, arguing that the emergency powers law did not give the US president the legal authority to impose these tariffs. And last evening, the Trump administration appealed this decision before the Supreme Court, and the enforcement of the earlier ruling has been delayed until the Supreme Court can review the case. So, pending the Supreme Court decision, tariffs remain in effect.

But if Trump loses this appeal, that key source of revenue would quickly dry out. Undoubtedly the administration will already have alternatives up its sleeve –with sectoral tariffs a key candidate– but it would unleash a new wave of uncertainty that could sap confidence. No wonder Trump has said that if the Supreme Court does not overturn the Appeal court decision, the consequences would be catastrophic for the US: he is, after all, correct. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 22:20

DHS Terminates 2021 Temporary Protected Status For Venezuelans

Zero Hedge -

DHS Terminates 2021 Temporary Protected Status For Venezuelans

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced on Sept. 3 that it was revoking the 2021 designation of temporary protected status for Venezuelan nationals in the United States.

That status, which was previously set to expire on Sept. 10, will now be terminated 60 days after that date when the department publishes its notice to the Federal Register. The department indicated that it no longer believes Venezuelan nationals met the statutory requirements for temporary protected status.

“Given Venezuela’s substantial role in driving irregular migration and the clear magnet effect created by Temporary Protected Status, maintaining or expanding TPS for Venezuelan nationals directly undermines the Trump Administration’s efforts to secure our southern border and manage migration effectively,” U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services spokesman Matthew Tragesser said in a statement.

“Weighing public safety, national security, migration factors, immigration policy, economic considerations, and foreign policy, it’s clear that allowing Venezuelan nationals to remain temporarily in the United States is not in America’s best interest.”

Temporary protected status (TPS) is a program that gives people from certain countries the ability to stay in the United States legally for a period of time. The head of the Department of Homeland Security creates the program if temporary and extraordinary conditions prevent the migrants from returning to their home countries safely.

President Joe Biden, President Donald Trump’s predecessor, established two designations of temporary protected status for Venezuelan nationals residing in the United States. The first, which was unveiled in 2021, was affected by Wednesday’s revocation. The second, which Biden announced in 2023 and was set to expire in April before it was extended for 18 months, was terminated by the Trump administration earlier this year.

At the time, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem determined that “it is contrary to the national interest to permit the covered Venezuelan nationals to remain temporarily in the United States.”

Biden’s Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas had granted temporary protected status to roughly 348,202 Venezuelan nationals, deeming that there were “extraordinary and temporary conditions in Venezuela that prevent individuals from safely returning.”

In May, the Supreme Court temporarily blocked a lower court’s order to prevent the Trump administration from removing the temporary legal protections for Venezuelans so that the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit could weigh in on the issue.

Then, the federal appeals court last week upheld the original order that stopped the administration from moving forward with the policy that would make it easier to deport Venezuelan nationals.

U.S. District Judge Edward Chen, who issued the original order, said at the time that ending the program “for reasons of national security” was not backed by evidence.

“Venezuelan TPS holders have lower rates of criminality than the general population,” he said.

“Generalization of criminality to the Venezuelan TPS population as a whole is baseless and smacks of racism predicated on generalized false stereotypes.”

On Wednesday, the Homeland Security Department said Noem had moved to end the 2021 designation of temporary protected status for Venezuelans because keeping the program “is contrary to the national interest.”

“Venezuelan nationals leaving the United States are encouraged to use the U.S. Customs and Border Protection CBP Home app to report their departure from the United States and take advantage of a safe, secure way to self-deport that includes a complimentary plane ticket, a $1,000 exit bonus, and potential future opportunities for legal immigration,” the agency wrote in a news release.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 21:45

Illegal Alien Arrested With Arsenal Of Weapons, Ammunition, Cocaine 

Zero Hedge -

Illegal Alien Arrested With Arsenal Of Weapons, Ammunition, Cocaine 

The optics for the Democratic Party are not great at the moment.

Whether it's vehemently rejecting President Trump's mission to restore law and order in crime-ridden progressive cities or opposing the deportation of criminal illegal aliens, the party of confused radicals - still unable to define what a woman is - bankrolled by rogue leftist billionaires and propped up by dark-money NGOs, has firmly branded itself as the party of "America Last."

If Democrats had their way, no illegal alien would ever be deported. That's because these third-worlders are seen as the party's future voting base to seize more political power. For a glimpse into exactly who these individuals are, look no further than a shocking new report out of Charleston, South Carolina.

Local outlet WCBD reported earlier this week that deputies with the Dorchester County Sheriff's Office pulled over Joaquin Lopez-Rubio for speeding. Deputies say Lopez-Rubio is in the country illegally, and what they found in his vehicle was shocking.

Here's more from the local station:

Lopez-Rubio was detained for reckless driving and operating a vehicle without a valid license. It was also determined that he was a "Mexican national in the United States illegally," according to the sheriff's office.

During a search of Lopez-Rubio's vehicle, deputies and troopers found three clear plastic bags with 8.6 gross grams of cocaine, ten firearms, and multiple magazines with various rounds of ammunition.

How does the illegal pick fruit on farms and clean dishes at restaurants with these tools?

Democrats are losing the plot. 

Related:

Americans are waking up and fed up with the globalist regime in the previous administration that flooded the nation with millions of illegals. Now, some of these criminal illegals are heavily armed.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 20:30

Doug Casey On Why College Fails Young Men... And The Blueprint They Actually Need

Zero Hedge -

Doug Casey On Why College Fails Young Men... And The Blueprint They Actually Need

Via InternationalMan.com,

International Man: Doug, you co-wrote The Preparation with Matt Smith and Maxim Smith.

What motivated the three of you to come together on this project, and why did you feel now was the right time to publish it?

Doug Casey: I’ve wanted to write a book like this for well over a decade. I talked Matt into co-authoring it because, frankly, I’ve become rather lazy, and writing is hard work. Matt only became interested in it, though, when Maxim, his son, turned 17. Matt didn’t want to encourage his son to wander off to a college—because colleges have turned into intellectual and social cesspools. Matt became quite interested in it, and more importantly so did Maxim, because Maxim has actually been a guinea pig for the ideas and solutions we propose in the book. For the last two years, Maxim has been putting the theory in the book into practice, and all of us are absolutely thrilled with the results from every angle.

Now is the right time for a book like this, because the nature of college has changed radically. It was once an institution that gave young men a chance to perfect their critical thinking skills and expand their knowledge of the world. Now it’s just an expensive extension of adolescence—a halfway house to lounge around, take a few classes, and party, while being indoctrinated with insane ideas from thoroughly corrupt professors. The nature of college has degraded over the last hundred years, and its downhill descent has accelerated in recent years.

I used to say—after I graduated in 1968—that I considered college a misallocation of four years of time and a bunch of money. Even though in those days it was still reasonably worthwhile, fairly exclusive, and relatively cheap. Now, paradoxically, it has little value, most everyone goes, but it’s brutally expensive. As time went on, I increasingly saw it as a waste of time. Now I see college as destructive, an active detriment.

International Man: What do you see as the central purpose of this book, and why do you believe it is especially important for young men today?

Doug Casey: This is the book I wish I’d had when I was in high school, contemplating college. I didn’t have any guidance, but went off to college because it was what most people from my background did. College was seen as the key to success and higher income. But if someone had shown me what I could have done with those four years—if I’d had this book– I would’ve been way better off in every way.

Today, young men are being actively battered by destructive forces in society, like the tranny, bi, and incel movements. Large numbers of young men find that they’re not qualified for anything after they graduate. Not only are they unqualified, but they’ve also acquired negative moral and social values. Many wind up living in their parents’ basement, watching porn and playing video games all day.

This book is a guide to a total education. College grads not only dissipate tens of thousands a year of their parents’ capital, but burden themselves with a non-dismissible albatross of debt as well. For what? An experience that may launch you into the world—kind of—but is likely to hurt you morally, financially, and even intellectually.

This book shows young men how to gain all the academic knowledge that they theoretically would if they went to college, plus a huge number of real-life skills. And practical experience that most men never get in a lifetime. A young man who follows The Preparation will be head and shoulders above anybody who’s spent four years in college in every area.

Take academics. When you go to college today—assuming you graduate—you generally get either a BA, Bachelor of Arts, or a BS, Bachelor of Science. A BA means you’ve taken some courses in history and English, but are also burdened with lots of time-wasters like sociology, psychology, and gender studies. BA graduates are always light on the sciences.

BS students are generally fewer but more serious. They may learn about biology, physics, chemistry, or astronomy in some depth, but they’re generally light on the humanities.

The Preparation ensures that you will have a thorough grounding in both the humanities and the sciences. And more than that, four quarters are devoted to MBA courses, to learn things you need to run a business: accounting, the legal system, marketing, sales, and administration. And the principles of economics and investing.

International Man: Can you walk us through what The Preparation entails—what kind of guidance, lessons, or frameworks does it provide, and how is it structured to set readers up for long-term success?

Doug Casey: We’ve divided the four years of college into 16 quarters, called cycles. Each cycle centers around a practical, real-world experience. For instance, learning to be an emergency medical technician (EMT). The knowledge and practical skills acquired stay with you for the rest of your life, and you can immediately get a job doing that. Maxim parlayed his EMT qualifications into working as a medic for a forest firefighting team, where he was paid $600 per day with no ancillary expenses. That’s a fantastic gig for an 18-year-old kid. Meanwhile, you’ll take related academic courses on biology and anatomy.

By the time you finish the 16 cycles, you’ll know how to fly a plane as a private pilot. You will spend a month in Florida operating heavy equipment—tractors, bulldozers, backhoes, cranes—something that will be valuable for the rest of your life. You’ll go to Canada and spend a month learning to work metal and become a welder. You’ll spend a month learning to build a house. You’ll learn open-ocean sailing. You’ll spend a month learning to survive in the wilderness, and another working with horses and cattle on a ranch. You’ll spend three months in Thailand learning martial arts, because any young man should know how to defend himself and his family. And much more.

And while you’re doing these active, hands-on, physical things, as well as taking academic courses, you’ll also be doing unrelated fun stuff. Things that a well-rounded man should know. We encourage everyone to become certified as open-water scuba diver. You might take acting classes. Learn skydiving. Learn golf and tennis, chess and go, poker and bridge. Obviously, these may not have direct economic benefits, but they’re challenges. They’re broadening, and groove you into very different environments. That’s an important part of The Preparation. Historically, young men have always engaged in a trial by fire, a hero’s journey. But that concept is totally missing from society today.

The Preparation makes sure young men don’t just sit in a classroom for four years listening to woke professors talk. If young men don’t cut the class entirely, they’ll probably fall asleep after a night of partying, or their minds will wander. If the professor says anything valuable, his words vanish into the ether. Even if you take notes, they may not be good.

The academic portion of The Preparation includes lectures by world-class professors, giving command performances that you can listen to any number of times to really master the material. They’re actually entertaining—unlike many college classes, which can be boring and are often taught in rooms of a hundred students by teaching assistants.

International Man: A lot of young people today are questioning the value of a traditional college education. In your view, how does The Preparation serve as an alternative—or an answer—to college for those looking to launch themselves into the world effectively?

Doug Casey: The three most important verbs in all languages are bedo, and have. One of the problems with modern American society is that have is now the most important verb. I want to have a good-looking spouse. I want to have a nice house. I want to have a good job. The way we see it, anything that you have should be the result of what you do in the real world by producing things of value.

And by doing, you’ll increase your state of being, as well as having. The essence of The Preparation isn’t just gaining knowledge and skills—it’s to allow a young man to mold his own character to become the type of man he wants to be. That model is exemplified by the characters portrayed in The Count of Monte Cristo, or the television series Have Gun – Will Travel. Or in real life, the 19th-century explorer Richard Burton. These are all characters who, if you dropped them into the Congo Rainforest with nothing but the clothes on their backs, would emerge triumphant, rich and famous after a year.

We’re trying to lay out a path for the reader to become a Renaissance Man, as opposed to getting on an indoctrination treadmill. This book is not about getting a job as a drone in a cubicle in order to wind up as a middle manager. The Preparation will qualify anyone who completes it as somebody employers will fight over. But a graduate of The Preparation would likely take a job only as a step along the way. The true objective is to be self-employed and in charge of your own life. You don’t want to be the effect of somebody else’s cause. Which is the fate of employees.

In fact, most jobs are now on dead-end paths with the advent of artificial intelligence. We’re going into a massive economic and social revolution. It’s as big a deal as what happened 200 years ago with the Industrial Revolution. You can’t prepare for it by taking a bunch of boring cookie-cutter courses in school that prepare you for nothing. You—or your son or grandson– want to use the four years when most are being corrupted in college, to transform yourself into a Renaissance Man. Someone who can not only survive, but thrive and triumph in any environment.

International Man: What are some of the most important life skills and mindsets you think young men will gain from The Preparation that they’re unlikely to learn in school or from society at large?

Doug Casey: With the numerous skills, abilities, experiences, and depth of knowledge, that they’ll gain through The Preparation, young men will not need or want to climb a ladder that somebody else sets up for them. What we’re trying to do is give them a path to creating a web, as a spider might—so they can move in any direction, rather than being stuck on a ladder where the people are trying to climb over each other. Climbing somebody else’s corporate ladder makes no sense in today’s context.

By following the path we outline in the book—the amount of time it will take, the precise costs, where to go, what to do—you’ll see the way to becoming a Renaissance Man. We expect those who complete The Preparation to have much more than college graduates because they can do a wide variety of things. And most importantly, they will have transformed themselves into being the type of person who everyone wants to associate with. A stand-up guy who can do most anything, and can be relied on to do the right thing.

I urge you to get this book (LINK TO AMAZON). Read the reviews on Amazon if you don’t believe me. Co-authors Matt and Max Smith and I are on a mission to transform the course America is on. Please join us.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 20:05

ZeroHedge Store Expands - Introducing Ultra High-End Meats & More

Zero Hedge -

ZeroHedge Store Expands - Introducing Ultra High-End Meats & More

Since launching the ZeroHedge Store last December, extreme mission creep set in. Thanks to your overwhelming support of our hats, shirts, supplements and other cool gear, we've rapidly expanded into a MAHA-focused market full of healthy products so you know exactly what you're putting into your body (see below). 

And after an extremely successful launch of our Rancher-Direct program which resulted in a stampede of customers clamoring for farm-to-table fresh meat, we've consolidated the program with two superstar ranches, as well as a new pantry section that has everything from beef tallow chips to mouth-watering seasonings and more. Keep scrolling to see what's new, and check out our September Special at the bottom for ZeroHedge freebies with your order. 

Without further ado... 

Elkins Cattle Co. 

Elkins supplies some of the absolute best meat on the planet to high-end restaurants. Those steaks you pay $150+ to eat by candlelight? That's what this is. This meat is rich, juicy, buttery smooth, has the sexiest marbling you'll ever see. It's dry-aged for a minimum of 15 days and graded USDA prime. Elkins also has two giraffes - which aren't on the menu. 

Here's what you absolutely need to try (ships frozen via 2-day air):

Sunday Supper Revival: 1 bavette (16-18 oz) flap steak, 1 skirt steak, 5lbs of ground beef, 1 London broil, 4-pack of hamburger patties, 2 packages of kabob meat, and one jar of Elkins' own Rancher's Gold seasoning - a sweet pepper and garlic mix, kissed with organic cane sugar for a savory-sweet finish that can be bought separately here

Great American Grill Out: (for closers only): this box includes; 2 boneless Ribeye steaks, 2 NY Strip steaks, 2 Filet Mignon, 2 packs of hamburger patties (8 total), 3 lbs of ground beef, and 1 jar of Rancher's Heat seasoning (A bold, spicy pepper blend with an extra kick for those who like it hot.)

Ancestral Beef N' Bone Bundle: Have you ever had ancestral ground beef? It's like regular ground beef, only with nutrient-dense liver, kidney, and heart. This box also contains four marrow-packed bones, 3 lbs of regular ground beef, and a 16oz jar of Elkins' cooking tallow.

Some actual footage of Elkins beef:

Family Favorites Lasagna, Meatball & Pasta box: (clean comfort food to the max): (1) pan of Texas Beef & Three Cheese lasagna with Elkins' Ranch beef, layered with handmade whole wheat pasta, ricotta, mozzarella, parmesan, and rich beef sauce, (1) giant beef meatball in rich sauce, (1) bag ea. Fusilli, Radiatori & Creste Di Gallo pastas, (1) jar each of Red Sauce & Vodka Sauce. Or if you don't want the sauces or as much pasta but want 2x the lasagna and meatballs for about the same price, click here.

Ultimate Texas Beef and Pasta Box: Twice the lasagna and meatballs, (2) bags of pasta vs 3, no sauces.

You want to talk high standards? Watch this clip of owner Tim Elkins (longtime ZeroHedge reader) discussing why he's in the meat business.

Beck Ranch

When we first launched the Rancher-Direct program, Beck Ranch was our #1 seller - delivering consistently amazing boxes to hundreds of customers across the country. Operated by the Beck family in Lonetree, Wyoming - and soon to have its own on-site processing center, Beck Ranch's cuts are A+ and follow the same grass-fed, no-grain, no added hormone, no antibiotic approach as Elkins. 

Steak Lover's BundleThis has been our top selling item in the Rancher-Direct program. Includes 2 Filet Mignon steaks | 2 Ribeye or Bone-In Ribeye Steaks | 2 Baseball, Flat Iron, Ponderosa Steaks or Picahna | 2 New York Strip Steaks | 2 Top Sirloin Steaks. 

10lb Grass-Fed Ground BeefDry aged for 14 days, this ground beef is extremely rich and flavorful

Ultimate BBQ Bundle: The BBQ Box includes just a bit of everything you need for the grill or smoker. Includes: 2 Ponderosa Steaks | 2 New York Strip Steaks | 2 Chicken Breasts | 2 Pack of Grilling Sausage | 2 lbs Ground Beef | 2 lbs Hamburger Patties | 4oz Beck Ranch Cowboy Seasoning

Home & Pantry

As part of our expansion, we're proud to offer a variety of products made with clean ingredients - including snacks, pastas, seasonings & personal care items. 

Pasta & Sauce Sampler: (4) types of pasta, (4) amazing sauces. Check 'em out.

Mangones Organic Dried Mangoes: YOU MUST TRY THESE! Ingredients: literally just organic mangoes. No pesticides. No seed oils. No sulfites. No added sugar. No preservatives. Extremely addictive. A+

Microplastic-free teas: From Kindred Harvest. All-natural, flavorful, whole leaf teas. Microplastic free, glue free, and heavy metal tested. Also tastes great.

MASA Tallow Tortilla Chips: Made with organic corn, grass-fed tallow, and sea salt, MASA Yellow chips are the purest form of tortilla chip. No seed oils, no pesticides.

Honey and Black Gold Jelly

Seasonings: Both Beck and Elkins also have amazing seasonings you must try. Included in many of the beef boxes. 

Fancy Tallow Soaps (wives and girlfriends will love)

Tallow Sunscreen & Joint & Muscle Cream:

Whipped Tallow Balm: From Beck and Elkins

Patches!

We had a flood of people asking us to do ZeroHedge velcro-backed patches for your gear. 

And here are a few top sellers this year:

ZeroHedge Hat

ZeroHedge Multitool

IQ Astaxanthin (extremely potent antioxidant)

IQ Colostrum

Anza Red-Black Infinity Handle Knife

September Special!

And please give the store a follow on X...

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 19:30

China Tackles Price Wars As Bloated Solar Sector Amasses Huge Losses

Zero Hedge -

China Tackles Price Wars As Bloated Solar Sector Amasses Huge Losses

By Michael Kern of OilPrice.com,

China has launched in earnest the drive to curb excess capacity in the solar manufacturing sector, which has doomed many companies to price wars and deepening losses. 

The combined losses of six of China’s biggest solar panel and cell manufacturers doubled in the first half of 2025, to $2.8 billion (20.2 billion Chinese yuan), from the same period last year, the Financial Times reports, citing data from local financial information provider Wind.   

All top Chinese solar equipment producers had already booked losses for the first quarter of 2025, blaming the continued losses on low product prices and the trade and tariff turbulence under U.S. President Donald Trump.

The Chinese solar wafers, panels, switchers, and other equipment producers have been struggling on the domestic market amid overcapacity that China’s authorities moved to address only in late 2024.  

Earlier in 2024, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association said that China urgently needs consolidation in the solar manufacturing industry as overcapacity and price wars are leading local companies to a race to the bottom.

This summer, China’s authorities are stepping up efforts to address the overcapacity in China’s clean technology industries, which undermines the profitability of solar equipment manufacturers. 

Chinese authorities have realized that cutthroat competition, overcapacity, and low-quality manufacturing are hurting enterprises. Following months of introducing several measures to try to curb excess cleantech manufacturing capacity, China has now vowed to become more serious in addressing the problem.  

Chinese authorities and media have intensified in recent weeks the message that the “disorderly price competition” and overcapacity need to be addressed. 

In July, executives from 14 leading Chinese solar firms were summoned by China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), where Industry Minister Li Lecheng called on the manufacturers to end price wars, phase out outdated and severely underutilized capacity, and shift toward innovation and value-based competition.   

The minister “stressed that the next phase will prioritize product quality, stronger regulations, and sustainable development with ongoing government support,” solar panel manufacturer Huasun said, commenting on the meeting.    

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 19:15

A Sober Revolution Is Sweeping America... And Markets Are Responding

Zero Hedge -

A Sober Revolution Is Sweeping America... And Markets Are Responding

Authored by Laura Williams via TheDailyEconomy.org,

For the first time in Gallup’s 90-year polling history, a majority of Americans now view moderate alcohol consumption as bad for one’s health. Just 54 percent of American adults say they drink alcohol, and 49 percent tell pollsters they’d like to cut back in 2025. 

In particular, Gen-Z seems to have gotten the memo on alcohol’s dangers. Adults under 35 are the least likely to drink, with fully 40 percent living an entirely dry lifestyle. Women are most likely to have cut back their consumption between 2020 and 2025, which fits a pattern: COVID lockdowns showed people alcohol’s ugly power.  

Many middle-aged and older folk who’ve cut back recently cited the COVID-19 lockdowns as a source of clarity about their drinking patterns. Without daily obligations or anyone to see or judge them, many people livened up the boredom and isolation with an afternoon cocktail. And then a lunchtime cocktail. And without an early commute and in-person meetings, not to mention the existential dread of a global crisis, perhaps it would be okay to stay up late and have one more in the evening. Zoom meetings became online happy hours. Everything from true crime to personal finance advice was paired with a cocktail recipe and a boozy delivery service. Disposable income rose, fueled by stimulus checks and the largely closed entertainment sector. Spending at liquor stores soared in the weeks after checks were mailed, and a survey from Wallethub estimated 24 million Americans spent some of their stimulus money on alcohol. 

Casual critics of capitalism might see the profit motive in companies keeping Americans drinking alcohol, regardless of its dangers. Young people can likely recall the denials and cynical obfuscations of Big Tobacco and might be justified in finding fault with Big Booze as well. Most people imagine alcohol execs as something like the Merchants of Death in Thank You for Smoking: shady characters representing human vices, conspiring to fill our shopping carts with vodka, cigarettes, and loaded firearms.

No doubt, alcohol is pushed on us by brands that want us to associate various formulations of ethanol with the fulfillment of every desire: be cool, popular, confident, loved, and an excellent dancer. The elixir is in the cooler full of ice near your beach volleyball game, or delivered to your table from a handsome stranger. Alcohol product placements and tippling characters saturate streaming services.  

But unlike advertising, markets are value-neutral. They don’t tell us what we should want; they deliver whatever we’re willing to pay for. Yuengling is the nation’s oldest brewery, and if tomorrow they learned that Gen-Z would be going teetotal, they’d be the nation’s largest kombucha and sparkling water distributor by next year. 

Zero-Proof Imitators 

Non-alcoholic adult beverages have the same problem as atheists: it’s hard to affirmatively define yourself with a name that only says what you’re not. So it has been for “near-beer,” “zero-proof liquors,” “spirit-free analogues,” “nosecco,” and perhaps most condescending: “mocktails.” But the zero-proof market segment has entered an era of true innovation, not just imitation. “NA” and “AF” options are no longer niche

Young people want to enjoy the same adult, elevated social spaces and events they’ve associated with traditional drinks. Established brands recognized the demand for alcohol-free options that could be consumed in the same situations. Like foodways, drinking customs are part of our social and familial landscapes: being able to grab a Heineken 0.0 from the fridge along with Dad’s Coors Light preserves the social texture without the dose of poison. An alcohol-free cider or craft mocktail at the office party lets nondrinkers fully participate in the celebration, without prompting uncomfortable conversations. Sales of nonalcoholic alcohol imitators are growing fast, and national distributors of winebeer, and spirits have rolled out new offerings. 

Alcohol-free offerings from several well-known beer brands.

Indeed, savvy beverage brands aren’t just de-alcoholicizing their standard offerings, but instead branching out into kombuchas, tonics, infusions, malts, probiotics, and craft sodas.

Adult Alternatives

Nondrinkers also show interest in beverages with mind-altering and mood-enhancing effects similar to alcohol, but want to avoid its downsides (which range from headaches and hangovers to cancer and coma). Drinks derived from cannabis and infused with the compounds of psychedelic mushrooms are now legal in many states, and are pretty safe compared to alcohol (no lethal dose of either is known). While the availability of recreational cannabis is known to reduce rates of alcohol consumption and abuse, cannabis consumption hasn’t risen significantly over the past five years, so it’s unlikely new users are a major contributor to drinking’s decline.

Among the less-safe iterations of this trend are products containing kava and kratom. These mild stimulants have more in common with espresso and energy drinks than alcohol, but many users report addictive properties and changes in health that look a lot like alcoholism and drug dependence. 

Markets also tend to be great at, well, marketing, so don’t be surprised by the explosion of special collections, targeted sales, and branded merch for Dry July and Sober October. Merchandisers like “Doing It Sober” and “Sober Motivation Shop” have cashed in on the trend, and so have thousands of tiny artisans who now create sobriety-minded accessories. Part of the sobriety aesthetic is smashing stigma as a service to others. The motto on one hoodie reads: “Recover loudly to keep others from dying quietly.” 

Quit Lit and Sober Influencers

Across our consumption landscapes, sober-focused communities are making themselves known. While it wouldn’t be in keeping with group norms to share links to their stories, a quick internet search turns up the online support community r/stopdrinking — perhaps the most reliably supportive, wholesome place on the internet. That Reddit forum had 30,000 members when The Washington Post profiled it ten years ago, but now boasts half a million. No prices are listed here, and the cost is measured in service: support, mutual aid, people sharing their talents freely. Free recovery forums demonstrate supply and demand in the most human way possible. 

Books and podcasts have also proliferated, with Quit Lit finding all the usual niches in bookstores: women’smen’sspiritualsubversive. Podcasts like Sober AwkwardRecovery Elevator, and This Naked Mind reach the sober-curious right in their homes and headphones, reducing the stigma of seeking help, or even self-identifying as needing help.

Creator networks like Patreon also shift the traditional model of exchange. Most of the content is free — which is a surprisingly successful money-making strategy on the participatory internet. A variety of cooperative, collaborative, commercial relationships gives people the ability to support their supporters, in a virtuous feedback loop.

Sober Socializing

Social connections can be lubricated by alcohol, so to satisfy the sober socializer, businesses are increasingly offering indulgent adult escapes that don’t center around what can be bought from the barman.

Luxury hotel groups now require their premium locations to have a “sophisticated zero-proof option for the guests that choose not to imbibe.” Non-alcoholic “soft pairings” are appearing in fine dining establishments, where pairing profiles are expected to be just as complex and intentional as the wines for which they substitute. 

According to an article in Time “there’s been a wave of sober bars opening across the US,” and this is good news for artisanal and craft beverage makers who leverage unique botanicals and hops for cultivating specialty drinks. The demand can even support whole establishments: Atlanta’s first alcohol-free bottle shop, The Zero Co, opened in 2022.

“The addition of zero-proof cocktails can attract local guests who are seeking out a non-alcoholic option—similar to the draw of local restaurants that include gluten-free or vegan options,” writes Tad Wilkes for Restaurant Hospitality

Even Nitecapp Magazine lauded the rise of non-alcoholic specialty mixology at high-end hotels, calling it a “refreshing trend…redefining the essence of indulgence.” Marketing consultancies and startup sales teams emerged to help restaurants build out zero-proof menus and experiences. 

Sober travel and tour companies promise “clear-headed, connection-rich, booze-free adventures.” Just as there is a market for the all-you-can-drink booze cruise, there’s ready money seeking out sober cruising, and companies happy to fill the gap. Recommendation companies like The Sober Curator provide insights for those who prioritize avoiding intoxicants while traveling.

And because dating is often a bar-based and boozy affair — “I’d like to get to know you better” is often shorthanded with “Can I buy you a drink?” — apps have emerged for those who’d rather do their coupling-up fully conscious: LoosidClub Pillar, and Sober Love are growing fast. 

Why Would Big Bev Support Sobriety? 

The profit motive doesn’t make liquor companies “care” about your sobriety, in the sense that they care about your happiness or good fortune, the way Adam Smith used “sympathy.” Instead, the pursuit of personal gain (profit motive) encourages market participants to care about whatever you care about. The producers of non-alcoholic beverages, the purveyors of sobriety podcasts, the luxury hotels mixing up mocktails so complicated you’ll still be willing to pay $15 for juice and herbs — they don’t have to “care” about your health or be emotionally invested in your lifestyle choices. Self-interest via economic activity mimics the effects of sympathy for strangers: people will go to extraordinary lengths to provide what you need — if you’re willing to pay for it.

If you or someone you know has tried to avoid thinking about alcohol, you’ll have noticed that American culture is absolutely saturated in the stuff. Alcohol is prominent in 87 percent of top US movies and infused into your social feedOvert ads on billboards and neon signs in restaurant windows, brand endorsements on sports stadiums: there’s plenty of money to be made in gussying up the world’s most popular Class I carcinogen

And sure, earning money is a significant motivator for the makers of SoberMummy teas, the social network Club Soda, and even “Smells Like Sobriety” candles, but it’s hard to see capitalism as the bad guy in building these networks of voluntary support and exchange. As economists are fond of telling students, McDonald’s doesn’t care whether it becomes the premier salad and smoothie outlet in the country, if that’s what you were willing to pay for. 

When we demand better, markets deliver better. Raise a glass — perhaps a placeborita or Cos-no-politan — to the future.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 18:25

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