Russian Infantry Operating Inside Pokrovsk - Strategic Ukrainian City's Fall Imminent

The key logistical hub of Ukraine's eastern front - Pokrovsk, has been under steady contention for much of the past year, with Russian forces spending slow, methodical efforts pushing westward to flank just south of the city. 

For the majority of the war Pokrovsk has acted as the logistical hub and rear operations base for Ukraine's eastern defensive lines. It sits astride both a key railroad juncture and the highway to Ukraine’s fourth-largest metro, Dnipro.  The city's defensive positions are a final obstacle to Russia's access to most of the region. If Pokrovsk falls Russian forces will be able to more easily flank entrenched troops in the north and south of the country.

It's capture at this point looks imminent, given Ukrainian media is confirming Russian infantry have infiltrated the main logistical district of the city. It's somewhat sizeable, as it had a prewar population of some 60,000.

Getty Images

"At least 200 Russian infantry armed with automatic rifles, machine guns, and hand-held rockets were moving freely in the southern districts of city, at times ambushing Ukrainian defense forces still generally in control of central and northern districts, according to public statements by army officers to Ukrainian media," according to Kyiv Post on Wednesday.

Russia's military has said that Ukrainian forces have been suffering steady and immense losses seeking to defend Pokrovsk.

"Every day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) sends up to 120 soldiers to the town of Krasnoarmeysk (Ukrainian name - Pokrovsk) in the Donetsk People’s Republic, which indicates its enormous losses in the area," military expert Vitaly Kiselev told TASS."

"The enemy still has a strong hold on the city, and has no plans of retreating," he said. "They still have equipment and manpower here, all the more so that small units of about 15-20 men are being regularly sent there as reinforcements."

"In fact, groups of 15-20 people arrive there five or six times a day. This shows enormous losses in this area," the analyst added.

The loss of the primary rail lines and highway routes in and out of Pokrovsk would cut resources to Ukrainian units across the Donbas and possibly force them to retreat before running out of supplies. This would mean an immediate and sweeping Russian advance all along the eastern lines. 

2/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole and in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole.

Read more: https://t.co/LiVFrGnyU4 pic.twitter.com/JqCIzwNaTk

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) October 28, 2025

Where Putin goes from there is hard to say, but a campaign back into Western Ukraine, this time using attrition tactics, would not be unthinkable - especially given the past months have seen incursions in the central oblast of Dnipropetrovsk which began this past summer.

Pokrovsk is, interestingly, valuable for another reason that's not immediately apparent: It acts as high ground in a nation of lowlands, and high ground allows for more effective use of drones because the signals travel further and are harder to jam with electronic interference. While US-brokered ceasefire efforts have stalled, these developments give Moscow huge leverage if there should be a return to the negotiating table.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 10:20

Bank of Canada Cuts 25bps As Expected, Cites Weak Growth

In a preview of what is to come today at 2pm from the Fed, moments ago the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bp to 2.25%, as expected, noting that current policy is "about the right level" to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. 

In its statement, the central bank noted the Canadian economy contracted 1.6% in the second quarter amid heightened uncertainty, and said the trade dispute with the US is likely to result in weak growth in the second half of the year, but there will be some help from rising consumer and government spending and as exports and business investment begin to recover.

They said the labor market remains soft with job losses continuing to build in trade-sensitive sectors. The BoC noted inflation was slightly higher than expected and remains sticky

Some more highlights from the statement: 

US Tariffs

• Because US trade policy remains unpredictable and uncertainty is still higher than normal, this projection is subject to a wider-than- usual range of risks.
• Trade relationships are being reconfigured and ongoing trade tensions are dampening investment in many countries. In the MPR projection, the global economy slows from about Z/% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026 and 2027.
• US trade actions and related uncertainty are having severe effects on targeted sectors including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber.

Economy

• As a result of US trade actions, GDP growth is expected to be weak in the second half of the year.
• Canada’s labor market remains soft. Employment gains in September followed two months of sizeable losses.
• The Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the months ahead and CPI inflation to remain near 2% over the projection horizon.

Policy

• If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. Governing Council will be assessing incoming data carefully relative to the Bank’s forecast.
• The structural damage caused by the trade conflict reduces the capacity of the economy and adds costs. This limits the role that monetary policy can play to boost demand while maintaining low inflation.

In his opening statement, BoC Governor Macklem said rates were cut again to support the economy through adjustment to US trade policy (yes, yes, it's all Trump's fault). Some more highlights from what Macklem said, thanks to Newsquawk: For the first time since January and the start of the trade conflict, the Bank is publishing a baseline outlook for economic growth and inflation, rather than alternative scenarios; Focused on ensuring Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.

Trade

• US tariffs and trade uncertainty have weakened the Canadian economy. We expect very modest growth through the rest of the year, with some pickup in 2026. While this weakness is restraining price increases, the trade conflict is also adding costs for many businesses, putting upward pressure on inflation. We expect these opposing forces to roughly offset, keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The weakness we’re seeing in the Canadian economy is more than a cyclical downturn. It is also a structural transition. The US trade conflict has diminished Canada’s economic prospects. The structural damage caused by tariffs is reducing our productive capacity and adding costs. This limits the ability of monetary policy to boost demand while maintaining low inflation.
• US trade policy remains unpredictable, as events over the weekend reminded us. The range of possible outcomes is wider than usual—we need to be humble about our forecast. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond.

Labor

• The labor market is soft. Job losses have been concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors, and hiring has been weak across the economy.
• The unemployment rate remained at 7.1% in September, and wage growth has slowed.

Economy

• GDP growth is expected to resume, but remain weak, averaging about 0.75%. It should then pick up on a quarterly basis in 2026 as exports and investment recover, and average about 1.5% by 2027. This implies excess supply is only taken up gradually.
• While the global economy has been resilient to the rise in US tariffs and increased uncertainty, the impacts are becoming more evident.
• If the economy evolves roughly in line with the outlook in our MPR, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment.
• Canadian businesses and households are feeling the consequences of increased US protectionism.

The market reaction was muted: since the rate cut was expected, and coupled with the line that "current policy rate is about the right level", implying the BOC would pause and observe effects of its recent easing, the USDCAD initially fell from 1.3929 to 1.3916 before stabilizing around 1.3925 after the kneejerk move. In short, a nothingburger. 

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 10:08

US Pending Home Sales Rise Most In Almost A Year As Mortgage Rates Slide

September data for the US housing market has been positive so far (with new home sales soaring and existing home sales 'off the lows') as mortgage rates trend lower offering some affordability respite for buyers.

However, today's pending home sales data disappointed, printing unchanged MoM versus expectations of a 1.2% MoM rise (after an upwardly revised 4.2% MoM rise in August)...

Source: Bloomberg

On the bright side, on a YoY basis, sales rose 1.5% -  the best since Nov 2024.

The total pending home sales Index pushed further 'off the record lows', but is hardly

Source: Bloomberg

“A record-high stock market and growing housing wealth in September were not enough to offset a likely softening job market,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

Nonetheless, “mortgage rates are trending toward three-year lows, which should further improve affordability, though the government shutdown could temporarily slow home sales activity.”

Moreover, the so-called “lock-in effect” - in which homeowners resist selling because of their existing low-rate mortgages - is waning and helping to boost inventory.

Source: Bloomberg

By region, contract signings on previously owned homes rose 1.1% in the South to the highest level since March.

Pending sales also climbed in the Northeast, while falling in the West and Midwest.

Pending-homes sales tend to be a leading indicator for previously owned homes, as houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 10:08

Cracker Barrel Shares Down About 32% This Year, Following "Century's Worst Brand Blunder"

Cracker Barrel tried to go “modern,” and eight days later had to shove Uncle Herschel back into the logo. Two months on, investors are still cleaning up the mess — the stock is down 32% this year and inching toward its 2008 financial-crisis faceplant. 

CEO Julie Felss Masino thought removing the overalls-wearing mascot would “revive” the 50-year-old chain. Instead, loyal diners, conservative activists, and even Donald Trump dragged the company for ditching its Southern identity. Some shareholders now want her gone, according to Bloomberg. 

As Biglari Capital put it: “Management has relied on ill-conceived strategies that have worsened existing challenges rather than solved them.” They’re calling for votes against Masino and board compensation chair Gilbert Dávila. Biglari owns 2.9% of the company — and apparently 97% of the patience.

Bloomberg writes that traffic hasn’t recovered even after firing the marketing firm and scrapping remodel plans, per Placer.ai data. Cracker Barrel’s defense: “We’ve taken recent guest feedback to heart and are moving forward with a renewed focus on the food and guest experience.”

Translation: We hear you, please come back.

This Bud Light-style misfire comes as the whole industry struggles with inflation and weak traffic. But Cracker Barrel is making its own problems: an 8% drop in visits after the logo fiasco vs. 1% before. Wells Fargo’s Anthony Trainor noted, “Cracker Barrel’s turnaround has come off track… It will take time for the brand to recover.”

Their solution? A $19.99 two-entree-plus-dessert deal that Trainor says doesn’t “address underlying issues.” 

The “not ideological at all” rebrand has vaporized nearly $600 million in value. Masino insists the logo tweak was just about billboard visibility — because nothing says legibility like erasing your mascot and your customer base.

Competitors aren’t doing great either — Cheesecake Factory, Brinker, Chipotle — but to their credit, at least they didn’t attempt a woke makeover that backfired instantly.

Biglari’s final roast: the logo stunt ranks “among this century’s worst brand blunders alongside Bud Light and Jaguar.” Congratulations, Cracker Barrel — you’re in legendary company.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 10:00

From the NAR: NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows No Change in September

Pending home sales in September showed no change from the prior month and fell 0.9% year over year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales Report. The report provides the real estate ecosystem, including agents and homebuyers and sellers, with data on the level of home sales under contract. ...

Month-Over-Month
No change in pending home sales
Gains in the Northeast and South; declines in the Midwest and West

Year Over Year
0.9% decrease in pending home sales
Gains in the Northeast and South; declines in the Midwest and West
emphasis added

Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in October and November.

More Two-Screen Analysis... For Now

By Michael Every of Rabobank

‘Two-screen analysis’ continues today… for now.

On one, it’s the Bank of Canada and Fed rate decisions. For the BOC, we expect a 25bps rate cut to 2.25% to be the end of its cutting cycle – see here for more. For the Fed, we also expect a 25bps cut to 4.0% but don’t think they are done cutting yet – see here for more on that.

However, as geopolitical/geoeconomic developments play out on the second screen, is the Fed headline that matters more that Trump is floating Treasury Secretary Bessent as Chair – and not at the expense of his current role(?) Yet every Fed candidate is now Trumpian. That doesn’t just mean lower rates. Floating Bessent is to embrace the Fed playing a role in a US ‘grand macro strategy’. You don’t have to join many dots to see what the plot there is: Bessent is already suggesting the BOJ needs room to act (i.e., hike), pushing JPY higher and JGB yields the same.

In tandem, Trump and PM Takaichi pledged a 'new golden age' for their alliance as the two countries agreed a Memorandum of Cooperation on tech and listed the deals which are part of the $550bn FDI pledged by Tokyo, from energy and AI to critical minerals. Even if aspirational, the direction is clear. So is the fact this is driven by statecraft, not markets. Soon, central banks may play a direct role in it.

Equally, the Fed decision is just ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea - and the latter surely matters more(?) The Wall Street Journal claims Trump will consider lowering the 20% fentanyl tariff on China by half, which Trump just confirmed. Of course, China promised action on that front in 2017-18, May 2019, November 2023, January and August 2024, and June 2025: logically, one side is raising the issue for no reason or the other can’t or won’t act on it for another. US rumours are also that it will get a very good deal, but the South China Morning Post warns Trump’s love of unpredictability could hinder things, noting, “the US president’s erratic style of diplomacy and lack of strategy or focus may leave Beijing baffled.”

And central bankers. The flurry of tariff shifts and investment deals this week alone will keep their static, econometric models permanently grinding out ‘what-ifs’ presented as fact; and the ‘what if?’ of a Fed that doesn’t think in such two-dimensional terms is now more of a ‘what then?’

Asian central banks have certainly been pulled all over the place. The BOJ is being leaned on to hike; Bank Indonesia held after a series of cuts, worried about IDR; and the Bank of Korea also held, worried about high household debt. Then Australian Q3 CPI today came in far hotter than expected at 1.3% q-o-q headline (vs 1.1% consensus) and 3.2% y-o-y (vs 3.0%), 1.0% q-o-q trimmed mean (vs. 0.8%), and 1.0% q-o-q weighted median (vs. 0.9%), while the September print was 3.5% y-o-y (vs. 3.1%). Much of this was services-led, and much of that was directly or indirectly property-led, which has boomed again on recent RBA rate cuts and those arriving in Australia exceeding the number of houses being built (again). So, more RBA cuts to come? Don’t rule out a pause rather than a halt in easing, says our Australia-New Zealand macro strategist Ben Picton. Which is what an independent inflation-targeting central bank does, according to markets.

Yet the action in said markets is really about grand macro strategy: Nvidia is linking up with Palantir as Microsoft restructures OpenAI so it’s openly making money as part of a US private-sector Manhattan Project, which the government is paving the way for with an $80bn deal for new nuclear power plants (partly funded by Japan) to ensure cheap electricity for AI.  

That’s as some major US firms start mass firings of workers as that emerging technology allows them to do so very profitably. To say you need to be reading the relevant parts of Marx, Keynes, Kalecki, and Leontief on a second screen as this all unfolds is an understatement. But almost nobody will.

There’s also a lot going on in the geopolitical/geoeconomic realm in Europe too. We listed a staggeringly ambitious set of reforms and implied economic statecraft actions being proposed yesterday. On top of that, the European Commission is doubling down on its Ukraine loan scheme using Russian frozen assets, despite Belgian pushback, and had effectively stated “If you won’t seize Russia’s cash, open your wallets”, according to Politico. Meanwhile, the Kyiv Independent warns Russian troops outnumber Ukraine’s 8-1 in Pokrovsk as Kupiansk is over-run. In response, ‘Zelenskyy targets harder, better, faster, stronger strikes in Russian oil facilities’.

In the Middle East, Israel launched US-approved strikes on Gaza after accusing Hamas of ceasefire violations, but the White House believes the ceasefire will hold. That said, the US envoy to Lebanon warned it has “one last chance” to disarm Hezbollah: if not, military action may be stepped up. Moreover, mass civilian killings have been reported in a Sudanese city seized by the paramilitary group RSF. Will that kind of instability stay regional, and off market radars?

In LatAm, the US Senate rejected Trump tariffs on Brazil, but the vote was just symbolic, even if notable – will Trump put a 10% tariff on the Senate now in response? Within BRICS, via Nexperia, Brazil’s automakers may have to halt output in weeks if the global chips crisis persists, said a government official. Mexican President Sheinbaum stated she and Trump have agreed to extend a looming trade deadline for several weeks as negotiations continue, averting the risk of tariffs rising from 25% to 30% after a 90-day pause agreed to in July expires imminently. The US military also destroyed four more boats it said were carrying drugs, as pressure continues to build on Venezuela - and Reuters claims US military officials have been required to sign NDAs tied to Latin America missions.

In the economy, the US government shutdown rolls on, as a federal judge indefinitely blocked Trump’s planned worker layoffs; however, the Pentagon removed key protections for its civilian workers and stated it is moving to fire them with “speed and conviction.”

The EU Parliament warned Von der Leyen to change her budget or they will reject it; and France’s parliament agreed to adopt a €26bn tax hike on multinationals – “We have just suffocated the economy," as one MP is quoted in Le Figaro.

In politics, US Attorney General Bondi is now reviewing Biden presidential pardons signed by autopen, with a Republican-majority Congressional committee having decided they may be “void.” To say that could unleash political, then legal, drama is an understatement.

In the UK, the new far-left Your Party will launch legal action against three of its ‘rogue’ founders, according to sources, leaving people asking, ‘Whose Party?’ and ‘Whose donation money?’; and

There is a Dutch general election today, where the Netherlands is rightly glued to its own screen and the rest of the world (and markets) likely aren’t, barring a totally unexpected outcome. After all, Politico quotes one of the major party’s election platforms as ‘Make Boring Great Again’.

There’s very little of that anywhere else though, and the one screen many in markets look at may soon be full of very different content.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 09:46

The post The Taxpayers’ Tab for Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful New Ballroom appeared first on CEPR.

Boeing Hit With $4.9BN Charge After Another 777X Delay Pushes Plane Debut To 2027

Boeing is back to its old ways:

Shares of the aerospace giant slumped after Boeing announced a $4.9 billion accounting charge and another delay for its 777X jetliner, now expected to enter service in 2027, a reminder of the long recovery ahead for the troubled planemaker even as rising aircraft deliveries bolster its cash, with the company announcing that 737 production was now at a rate of 42 jets per month.

The non-cash writedown overshadowed third-quarter earnings, with a $7.47 loss per share that was wider than the $4.44 deficit predicted by analysts. Revenue was $23.27 billion, compared with the $22.3 billion average estimate.

The company also generated free cash flow of $238 million during the quarter, a feat it last accomplished in the final months of 2023. Boeing was forced to raise cash last year, following a near-catastrophic accident in the first days of 2024 that threw its production into disarray and led to a change in senior management. Analysts had expected the planemaker to burn through $884.1 million in cash before attaining positive cash flow during the fourth quarter.

Here is a snapshot of what the company reported for Q3:

• Core loss per share $7.47 vs. loss/shr $10.44 y/y, far worse than the estimated loss/shr $4.44
• Revenue $23.27 billion, beating estimate $22.29 billion
  • Commercial Airplanes revenue $11.09 billion, +49% y/y, beating estimate $10.56 billion
  • Defense, Space & Security revenue $6.90 billion, beating estimate $6.2 billion
  • Global Services revenue $5.37 billion, beating estimate $5.2 billion
• Commercial airplanes operating loss $5.35 billion, missing estimate loss $655.4 million
  • Defense, Space & Security operating earnings $114 million, missing estimate $130.4 million
  • Global services oper earnings $938 million, beating estimate $929.9 million
• Adjusted free cash flow $238 million, beating est. negative $884.1 million (Bloomberg Consensus)
• Operating cash flow $1.12 billion vs. negative $1.35 billion y/y, beating est. negative $197 million
• Backlog rises to $635.69 billion

And visually:

The US planemaker delivered 160 aircraft during the quarter, the most since 2018, and the pace should continue rising as Boeing boosts 737 production by 10% to the higher rate recently approved by US regulators. The step-up in the factory pace hasn’t yet fully been implemented, Ortberg told employees.

According to Bloomberg, Boeing has now recorded almost $16 billion in total charges for the 777X, a strategically important aircraft that is running seven years behind schedule amid tough regulatory scrutiny and is now scheduled to enter service in 2027. The latest charge shows how CEO Kelly Ortberg still faces multiple challenges to stabilize the company, even as Boeing benefits from surging aircraft orders with support from the Trump administration. 

Ortberg alerted investors during a September address that the 777X program faced delays and complex paperwork in the final flight-testing phase as engineers and US regulators work through a new certification processes. The program is in a so-called reach forward-loss position under Boeing’s arcane accounting methodology because costs have ballooned past the point where they’ll be recovered on the first 500 airplanes built. 

As a result, the company must immediately book any new abnormal costs and overruns as a charge to earnings. Prior to the third quarter results, Boeing had already recorded almost $11 billion in charges related to the jet.

"With a sustained focus on safety and quality, we achieved important milestones in our recovery as we generated positive free cash flow in the quarter and jointly agreed with the FAA in October to increase 737 production to 42 per month," said Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg. "While we are disappointed in the 777X schedule delay, the airplane continues to perform well in flight testing, and we remain focused on the work ahead to complete our development programs and stabilize our operations in order to fully recover our company's performance and restore trust with all of our stakeholders"

“We are now moving forward with a higher confidence plan and taking steps to improve our performance,” Ortberg, who has been in the job for little over a year, said in a memo to employees.

The 777X is an updated version of Boeing’s popular 777 model, the company’s largest civil aircraft in production. Airbus SE, which also reports earnings later on Wednesday, competes with its A350 plane. Airlines including Emirates, the biggest buyer of the 777X, and Deutsche Lufthansa AG, the launch customer for the plane, have had to revise their fleet modernization plans as Boeing kept pushing back introduction of the giant jet.

Despite the latest 777x sertback, the better-than-expected revenue and free cash flow in the quarter underscores the improvement to the 737 and 787 Dreamliner production this year. That’s a break from the costly delays and quality lapses on the two models that have frustrated customers and weighed on its finances for a half-decade. 

Boeing’s general recovery remains “intact and the supply-chain backdrop is probably improving — although you always worry when you say that about Boeing,” said George Ferguson, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence.

When Ortberg and Jay Malave, Boeing’s new chief financial officer, host an earnings call later today, analysts will be looking for more detail around the impact to Boeing’s defense division from a strike by St. Louis-area factory workers, which is approaching its 90th day. Also of interest: the status of efforts to certify the final two 737 Max models, and guidance on how the 777X delay will affect cash over the next two years.

Boeing shares fell 0.7% in premarket trading in New York. The stock had jumped 26% this year through Tuesday’s close.

The company's Q3 investor presentation is below (pdf link).

3Q25 Presentation by Zerohedge

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 09:22

Meeting With China's Xi In South Korea Confirmed After Trump Secures Trade Deal With Seoul

Update (0915ET): The White House has just confirmed that President Trump will meet Chinese President Xi at 11am local time on Thursday in South Korea..

That is 10pm ET.

"We are willing to make joint efforts with the U.S. side to work for positive outcomes of this meeting, which will provide new guidance and impetus for the stable development of bilateral relations," spokesperson Guo Jiakun told a regular press briefing, adding that head-of-state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic guiding role in China-U.S. relations.

Trump said he expected Beijing would be “doing things” and work with him directly to address the export of precursor chemicals critical to manufacturing fentanyl.

Trump also suggested he was open to providing China with access to Nvidia’s Blackwell AI processor as part of a trade deal, which would represent a major concession and rile up national security hawks in Washington.
“We’ll be speaking about Blackwells,” Trump said, touting the chip as “super duper” and years ahead of what was currently available from other countries.

“The world is watching, and I think we’ll have something that’s very exciting for everybody,” Trump told the summit.

*  *  *

President Trump told reporters that the U.S. and South Korea had "reached a deal on trade" during a dinner at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit hosted by South Korean President Lee Jae Myung. The announcement follows a series of major trade deals Trump has secured just this week on his Asia tour and sets the stage for the highly anticipated trade meeting tomorrow with Chinese President Xi Jinping. 

"We did reach a deal on trade," Trump told reporters at the dinner. No additional details about the agreement were provided, and neither the White House nor South Korean officials have issued an official statement outlining the terms.

Trump called his meetings with South Korea "tremendous" and said he had "pretty much finalized a trade deal," adding, "I think we came to a conclusion on a lot of very important items."

The pure logistics behind Trump's demand that South Korea invest $350 billion in cash in America have raised red flags with some Korean officials. Those officials told ABC News that loans and loan guarantees would be a much better pathway to strengthen ties, adding the country would also need a swap line to manage currency flows.

Trump's deal with South Korea builds on the previous deals he locked earlier this week, including $490 billion in investment commitments from Japan. 

Trump's deal-making momentum will carry into Thursday, when he will meet with Xi to discuss a U.S.-China trade deal. Well ahead of the meeting, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said both sides have agreed on "a successful framework." 

UBS analyst Andy Lau confirmed that China is ready to cooperate with the U.S. on "positive bilateral trade talks": 

China's foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun told state media that Beijing is ready to work with the U.S. for a positive outcome and open to more cooperation on fentanyl. Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump will have in-depth talks, he said, with their meeting set for Thursday in Busan.

Coverage this week of Trump's deals:

• Bessent Announces US-China Trade "Framework" Reached; Rare Earth Controls Deferred + Thailand and Cambodia deals

• Trump Praises Japan As Key Ally, Signs Rare-Earths Deal And U.S. Investment Boost

Trump confirms tomorrow's Xi talks. 

Cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket has odds of around 78% that Trump secures a China trade deal tomorrow.

The grand finale of trade deals could come as soon as tomorrow. If not, stocks could very well puke. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 09:15

Gaza Ceasefire Has Resumed After Israeli Soldier & Over 100 Palestinians Were Killed Tuesday

After Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday instructed the country's military to "carry out powerful strikes in Gaza," the IDF followed in a Wednesday morning statement saying it has resumed the ceasefire in Gaza. The military indicated it had launched "series of significant strikes in which dozens of terror targets and terrorists were attacked" - the result of Hamas gunmen allegedly opening fire on its troops.

Israel says that during this ground attack by Hamas in Rafah, an Israeli reservists was killed. "The slain soldier was named as Master Sgt. (res.) Yona Efraim Feldbaum, 37, a heavy machinery operator in the Gaza Division, from the West Bank settlement of Neria," Times of Israel reports.

Via IDF

But Gaza health authorities said more than 100 Palestinians were killed in the fresh strikes Tuesday strikes, which have at this point abated. Israel announced at 10am (local) that the ceasefire is once again in effect.

Rob Geist Pinfold, lecturer in international security at King’s College London, articulated his view to Al Jazeera that the strikes were "more or less clearly coordinated with the United States." 

"Yes, Israel launched all of these strikes. Yes, this may feel like a breach of the ceasefire," he said. "But it’s unlikely that this wasn’t agreed in advance with the Americans." He says Washington would have been on board with retribution, albeit brief or temporary, given an Israeli soldier was killed despite the Trump-brokered ceasefire being on.

Pinfold described that US officials would "almost certainly be saying in private to the Israeli government: 'OK, you have a right to respond but you also have a necessity to stop. We are not letting you collapse the deal.'" He conveyed that Israel's government, "particularly Netanyahu, knows that for the time being at least this deal is too big to fail. He cannot be seen as being the leader that collapses the agreement."

Indeed, President Donald Trump when asked about it said he backs Israel's strikes, calling the move "retribution" for an assault on Israeli troops.

Trump said "Israel should hit back" after Israel said Hamas violated the ceasefire agreement, but still ultimately called for the ceasefire to hold. Before this Tuesday flare-up in fighting and strikes, it had held for a little over two weeks.

"Nothing's going to jeopardize that," Trump said in reference to the ceasefire. "You have to understand, Hamas is a very small part of peace in the Middle East, and they have to behave. They're on the rough side, but they said they would be good. And if they're good, they're going to be happy, and if they're not good, they're going to be terminated. Their lives will be terminated. And they understand that."

After nearly 12 hours of heavy bombing, the Israeli military announced it was reimposing the ceasefire as of 10 am local time (8 am GMT)https://t.co/IKo96ugLou pic.twitter.com/HZiR8Fvzvg

— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) October 29, 2025

The US President added, "If we have to, we'll take out Hamas very easily, and that'll be the end of Hamas. We would rather not. We made a deal with them where they were going to behave, and they have to behave. If they don't behave, they get taken out."

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 09:00

Futures Push To New Record, Nvidia Above $5 Trillion Ahead Of Fed Rate Cut And Mag 7 Earnings

With the year-end performance chase officially open...

remove the almost https://t.co/wECpqhB3sL pic.twitter.com/3A7iAxOIjV

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 29, 2025

... US futures march higher into today's Fed and Mag7 earnings (GOOG, META, MSFT adding up to more than $9TN in market cap) on relentlessly positive AI news, optimism about trade and expectations of a cut from the Fed later. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.3% and Nasdaq futures gain another 0.5%, with both indexes in record territory.  Nvidia rose 3% premarket after Trump said he’ll discuss its Blackwell processors with China’s Xi Jinping (during their 3 hour meeting confirmed for tomorrow morning), setting the AI giant on course to become the first public company worth $5 trillion when it opens for trading. There are also reports that the US-China deal will include a reduction in the fentanyl tariffs from 20% to 10%, boosting overall sentiment. All Mag7 names are higher with Semis also bid. Bloomberg reported that China is set to purchase its first cargoes of US soybeans this season, while Trump also said that US and SKorea have reached a trade deal. Cyclicals are mixed despite a rebound in Metals / Miners abut Defensives are being dragged lower by Staples. Commodities are mixed but Precious / Base Metals are rallying after gold / silver look to form a level after correcting 10% and 15% (gold trading back over $4000) while copper hit a record above $11K amid a series of supply setbacks at leading mines. Bond yields are up 1bps across the curve and the USD is bid for the first time this week. Today's big event is the Fed decision as well as earnings by 3 of the Mag 7; we also get September pending home sales at 10am.

In premarket trading, all Mag 7 stocks are all higher: Nvidia is up 4% after US President Donald Trump said he’ll discuss the chipmaker’s Blackwell artificial intelligence processors with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, putting the company on track to become the first $5 trillion business by market value (Apple +0.3%, Tesla +0.9%, Alphabet +0.2%, Microsoft +0.4%, Meta Platforms (META) +0.1%, Amazon (AMZN) + 0.1%.

• Avantor (AVTR) tumbles 17% after the maker of laboratory supplies reported net sales for the third quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate. The firm also recorded a non-cash goodwill impairment charge of $785 million related to its Distribution reporting unit.
• Bloom Energy (BE) gains 18% after the company reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) rises 4% after posting higher third-quarter revenue, with its energy and transportation business boosting earnings amid rising demand for equipment needed to fuel data centers for artificial intelligence.
• Enphase Energy (ENPH) declines 11% after the firm’s fourth-quarter revenue forecast missed the average analyst estimate. Several price target cuts from analysts including JPMorgan and Evercore.
• Etsy (ETSY) falls 9% after the online marketplace company reported its third-quarter results. It also named Kruti Patel Goyal, currently chief growth officer, to the CEO job, effective Jan. 1.
• Fiserv (FI) tumbles 27% after it slashed its outlook for full-year earnings and said it’s overhauling its top leadership committee.
• Generac (GNRC) plunges 9% after the power-equipment company cut its adjusted Ebitda margin and net sales growth forecast for the full year. The firm also posted adjusted profit and net sales for the third quarter that fell short of expectations. .
• Mondelez (MDLZ) is down 5% after the snack-food company cut its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year.
• Seagate Technology (STX) is up 5% after the computer hardware and storage company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook.
• Stride Inc. (LRN) tanks 42% after the online education company gave an outlook that was much weaker than expected, prompting a downgrade. The company cited technical issues during the rollout of a new learning management system that fueled student withdrawals.
• Teradyne (TER) rises 20% after the company forecast adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter above the average analyst estimate.
• Varonis Systems (VRNS) plunges 29% after the data-security software company’s updated full-year revenue forecast came in below the average analyst estimate. It also reported third-quarter revenue that missed expectations.

Traders are gearing up for two pivotal days featuring a Fed decision, US-China trade talks, and earnings from five of the Magnificent 7, while Nvidia is set to be the world’s first $5 trillion public company. NVDA haares rallied after Trump said he expects to discuss Nvidia’s flagship Blackwell AI chip in Xi talks on Thursday. Trump also said he expects to lower tariffs the US imposed on Chinese goods over the fentanyl crisis as leaders of the world’s biggest economies seek to ease tensions in a meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, China was reported to purchase first cargoes of US soybeans this season.

Looking ahead, JPMorgan this morning reminds us that "today will be the fifth time that the Fed cuts rates with the S&P 500 at all-time highs.  All prior instances the S&P 500 was higher a year later with an average return of 20%. The worst one-year return was a 15% gain which occurred last year."

In other trade news, Trump said he had reached a deal with South Korea, though he later tempered the comment by saying the agreement was close to being finalized. Futures on South Korea’s Kospi 200 stock index rose.

There are some clouds in the sky: the breadth of the S&P 500’s gain on Tuesday was the narrowest since at least 1993, replicated overnight by Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225, adding to the theme of concentration with a strong gain generated by a relatively low number of advancers. BofA technical analyst Paul Ciana notes “the ghosts and goblins of Sept-Oct are fading away as we head into the most wonderful time of year,” while cautioning healthy bull markets are built on breadth and rotation “both of which have waned.”

“From an investment standpoint, while the narrative for US equities remains ‘bullish with conviction,’ sustaining this uptrend will require patience and disciplined risk management,” wrote Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com. “Monetary policy decisions, trade developments, and corporate earnings are set to become the key catalysts driving the next phase of the market.”

Turning to the main event, the Fed is set to cut by 25 basis points, and is likely to announce an end to Quantitative Tightening (QT) as there are increasing signs that bank reserves in the last two weeks have transitioned from an “abundant” to an “ample” level - the stopping point for QT, according to guidance from Powell (our full preview is here). 

“The decisive factor will be Powell’s press conference and how he assesses the current situation with regard to the labor market, because we are not getting any real data at the moment due to the government shutdown,” said Unicredit strategist Christian Stocker. “The economy will continue to develop solidly if we get some interest rate cuts next year. That would certainly be very, very decisive for the stock market.”

Besides the Fed, attention will be on the first batch of Mag 7 companies reporting after the close including GOOG, META, MSFT (full preview to follow). We also get earnings from ServiceNow, Starbucks, Chipotle, KLA, and eBay after the close. So far earnings season is very strong: of the 197 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 85% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 14% have missed. Boeing, Caterpillar, CVS, Fiserv, Phillips 66 and Verizon are among companies expected to report results before the market opens. Analysts have noted that, while tariffs and subdued demand have weighed on 2025 profitability, strong backlogs should provide Caterpillar a cushion, and tailwinds in power generation should support growth in the coming years.

The Magnificent Seven are projected to post third-quarter profit growth of 14%, nearly double the 8% expected for the broader S&P 500.

“The story of AI is still intact,” said Anthi Tsouvali, a multi-asset strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management. “The fact that the Fed is cutting rates — and we do expect that the Fed will cut another 25 points — is very good for the economy. It’s easing financial conditions, boosting growth.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 50 also at a record after copper hit an all-time high on the London Metal Exchange. The metal — a bellwether for global growth — has surged as the US and China move closer to a trade deal. Automakers also gained after Mercedes-Benz Group AG’s upbeat earnings signaled confidence in its cash generation despite trade hurdles. Among other movers in Europe, Glencore Plc rose after saying it’s on track to hit full-year production targets. Banco Santander SA and Deutsche Bank AG gained after earnings beats. Adyen NV surged after the payments solutions company exceeded analysts’ revenue estimates. UBS Group AG fell on legals risks arising from a Swiss court ruling. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Deutsche Bank shares rose 4.6%, the best performer on the Stoxx 600 Banks Index, after the German lender beat estimates as revenue from fixed-income trading exceeded analysts expectations
• Temenos shares jump as much as 16%, the most in three months, after the software company reported beats across metrics in its third quarter and raised its Ebit forecast for the full year
• Neste shares gain as much as 9.7%, the most since July, after the Finnish energy group reported its latest earnings. Analysts highlight a strong Ebitda beat, and while the renewables segment performed well
• Sweco soars as much as 13%, the most since May 2024, after the Swedish engineering consultancy delivered third-quarter Ebita ahead of expectations
• Straumann shares rise as much as 10%, the most in over six months, after the dental implant maker reported organic growth ahead of expectations in the third quarter
• Mercedes-Benz shares rise as much as 7.9% to their highest intraday since March after the German carmaker confirmed its full-year outlook and said it plans to proceed with a €2 billion share buyback
• Next shares rise as much as 7.5% after the British clothing and homewares retailer boosted its profit guidance for the fourth time this year, to a level ahead of estimates and analysts say results were “impressive”
• OMV gains 3% after the Austrian oil and gas company reported its latest earnings, which analysts say is a solid showing, with a quarterly beat driven by an outperformance for its Fuels & Feedstock division as refining strength
• Moncler shares fell as much as 4.6% after the company reported “lackluster” third-quarter sales, according to Oddo BHF, whose analyst noted the Italian luxury group’s cautious tone for the rest of the year
• UBS shares declined as much as 2.4%, reversing earlier gains of much as 4%, after investor focus turns to potential legal risk from a Swiss court ruling canceling the controversial writedown of Credit Suisse bonds
• Epiroc falls as much as 8.1%, the most since July, after the Swedish mining equipment maker reported disappointing 3Q, with analysts flagging continued margin struggles and the print coming up short against elevated expectations
• Nordic Semiconductor shares fall as much as 8.8% after the chipmaker gave a 4Q sales guidance that met analyst estimates, but failed to inspire investors that had already pushed the stock up over 60% this year prior to the result
• Telenor shares drop as much as 4.9% after the telecom operator reported results that met expectations but flagged several risk factors in Asia, including an upcoming spectrum renewal at the Grameenphone subsidiary in Bangladesh
• SKF shares drop as much as 5.5%, pulling back from a four-and-a-half year high, after analysts at Citi said the maker of bearings and sealing systems pointed to weaker growth in the final quarter of the year
• Electrolux Professional falls as much as 10% after the company reported its latest earnings, with DNB Carnegie flagging misses on quarterly sales and Ebitda, with the latter weighed down by continued currency headwinds

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also advanced, boosted by the technology sector on AI-driven earnings strength, as investors awaited a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5%, with Nvidia suppliers Advantest and SK Hynix among the biggest boosts after reporting strong outlooks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 2%, with gains also notable in South Korean and Taiwanese benchmarks. Trump arrived in South Korea, with which his administration is slated to sign a deal Wednesday on bolstering cooperation in AI and other areas. The US president will meet his Chinese counterpart Xi on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit on Thursday as they look to finalize a sweeping trade agreement. Onshore Chinese equities advanced, while Hong Kong’s market was closed for a holiday. Equities declined in Australia, Singapore and Malaysia.

In FX, the dollar is strengthening after recent bout of weakness, with Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.1%. Sterling underperforms.

In rates, treasuries edge lower across the curve, underperform European bonds as markets brace for a busy session that includes Federal Reserve rate decision and ongoing Asia trade negotiations.  Yields at 1bp-2bp cheaper across a slightly steeper curve, the 10-year near 3.99%, trailing German and UK counterparts by 1bp and 2bp. Fed-dated OIS contracts fully price in a 25bp rate cut for today’s policy announcement and a combined 47bp by year-end, a period including just one additional decision in December; today’s meeting is anticipated also to include guidance on Fed’s plans to stop shrinking its holdings of Treasuries. A decision on that has potential to drive outperformance by Treasuries vs interest-rate swaps, benefiting a recently popular trade.

In commodities, gold rises back above $4,000/oz and oil prices remain volatile. Brent futures holding above $64/barrel. Copper hits a new record high amid broad gains for base metals.

Looking ahead, today’s key events include the Fed and BoC decisions. Data releases feature US September advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, and pending home sales; UK September net consumer credit; Italy’s September PPI and hourly wages; and Sweden’s September GDP indicator. Earnings are due from Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, SK Hynix, UBS, and others. The US will auction $30bn in 2yr FRNs. And we also have the early general election in the Netherlands.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini little changed
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.1%
• DAX little changed
• CAC 40 little changed
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 3.99%
• VIX -0.1 points at 16.33
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1212.15
• euro -0.2% at $1.1628
• WTI crude -0.3% at $59.96/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump said he expects to lower fentanyl-linked tariffs on China as Beijing confirmed a high-stakes meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and the American leader. Trump said he might discuss Nvidia’s advanced AI chips with China soon. CNBC
• Trump announces trade breakthrough with South Korea on Asia trip: RTRS
• Trump said he threatened India and Pakistan with 250% tariffs to help spur the resolution of their conflict earlier this year. BBG
• China has started purchasing American soybeans according to Reuters, a sign of easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. RTRS
• Trump said they have secured commitments of over $18tln in new investments and that probably USD 21tln–22tln of investment is coming into the US by the end of the second term. Trump said he expects 4% GDP growth next quarter and that factories are booming in the US, while he commented that they will not have the Federal Reserve raising rates.
• The Republican-led Senate on Tuesday delivered a rare bipartisan rebuke of President Trump in a vote to terminate the emergency powers he has used to set tariffs on Brazil, part of a larger push to rein in the administration's efforts to install trade barriers. This may prove to be just symbolic since Speaker Mike Johnson is unlikely to bring the measure up for a vote in the House. Politico
• Australia’s CPI overshoots the consensus in Sept (+3.5% vs. the Street +3.1%), dashing hopes for an RBA rate cut. WSJ
• Israel began re-enforcing a Gaza ceasefire after conducting overnight air strikes in retaliation for a Palestinian attack against its troops. BBG
• The US drugs regulator is preparing to accelerate approvals for cheaper generic versions of complex biological medicines, threatening to jeopardize revenue for some of the industry’s most profitable products. FT
• The BOC is expected to cut rates by 25 bps today to help an economy that’s suffering more damage from US tariffs, even as PM Mark Carney finalizes plans for a stimulative budget. BBG
• FOMC preview: The FOMC is set to deliver another 25bp rate cut to 3.75-4% at its October meeting next week. The median projection in the September dot plot showed a baseline of three cuts this year, and with the official data paused by the government shutdown and alternative labor market data mixed at best, there is no reason to deviate from the plan to support the labor market for now. 
• The market cap of NVDA (~$4.86 trn) is closing in on the market cap of the entire Industrials S&P500 GICS (~$4.89 trillion), composed of 79 companies.

Trade/Tariffs

• Trump said he had a great trip so far and expects to lower fentanyl-linked tariffs on China, while he will discuss farmers and fentanyl with China. Trump reiterated that he thinks they will have a great meeting with Chinese President Xi and relations with China are very good. Furthermore, Trump said he may speak about NVIDIA's (NVDA) Blackwell chip with Xi.
• Trump posts "Bringing back Trillions of Dollars to USA! A great trip. Dealing with very smart, talented, and wonderful Leaders. Tomorrow, President Xi of China. It will be a great meeting for both!!! President DJT".
• Trump says the meeting with Chinese President Xi will be three hours long before returning back to the US; says things will work out very well with Xi tomorrow.
• China's COFCO purchased three cargoes totalling 180k tonnes of US soybeans ahead of Trump-Xi meeting, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• US President Trump posted "For those that are asking, we didn’t come to South Korea to see Canada!" Trump separately commented that a trade deal with South Korea will be finalised very soon.
• South Korean President Lee's office said that South Korean President Lee and US President Trump will discuss trade, investment and Korean peace, while it noted that Lee is to gift a mock-up of a golden crown to Trump and hopes that Trump’s visit will lead to a tangible outcome of cooperation.
• US Senate passed a bill to terminate Trump tariffs against Brazil.
• Chinese President Xi confirms meeting with US President Trump on Oct 30th in South Korea, via Xinhua. Chinese Foreign Ministry, on the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, says will inject new momentum into steady development of US-China relations; stands ready to work with the US for positive outcomes.
• Japanese PM Takaichi told US President Trump that banning LNG imports from Russia will be difficult according to Nikkei.
• US President Trump says, "we did reach a deal on trade with South Korea", via Bloomberg.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were predominantly in the green following the tech strength on Wall St, where most indices extended on record highs, while participants now await the approaching flurry of risk events, including the FOMC and mega-cap earnings. ASX 200 retreated with the index dragged lower by notable weakness in health care, real estate, industrials,  financials and tech, while firmer-than-expected inflation data further dampened hopes for a cut at next week's RBA meeting. Nikkei 225 extended its rally and outperformed against regional peers after climbing above the 51,000 level for the first time, with tech stocks buoyed after the gains in US counterparts and strong Advantest earnings. Shanghai Comp was positive but with gains capped amid thinner volumes, with Stock Connect trade shut alongside the closure of markets in Hong Kong for a holiday, while it was also reported that China's COFCO purchased 180k tonnes of US soybeans ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting.

Top Asian News

• South Korean President Lee said the global economy is facing various challenges, including supply chain shifts, while he added that a deepening trade and investment partnership is fundamental to Asia-Pacific nations, and he will propose an AI initiative at the APEC summit.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent commented that he looks forward to working with Japan's Finance Minister Katayama and is encouraged by her understanding of how Abenomics has moved from a reflationary policy to a program that must balance growth and inflation concerns. Bessent also stated that "The Government’s willingness to allow the Bank of Japan policy space will be key to anchoring inflation expectations and avoiding excess exchange rate volatility."
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said 'no comment' on US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s X post, while Kihara added that monetary policy falls under the jurisdiction of the Bank of Japan and he expects the BoJ to conduct monetary policy to appropriately achieve the inflation target. Furthermore, he said the government will continue to closely coordinate with the BoJ.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) are mixed, with price action this morning fairly rangebound awaiting today's key risk events which include the FOMC policy decision and a slew of earnings. European sectors hold a negative bias. Autos takes the top spot, boosted by post-earning strength in Mercedes Benz (+6.9%) - headline Q3 metrics were not so great, but sentiment was already dampened heading into the results and investors may instead focus on the EUR 2bln buyback. Analysts at Jefferies suggested that the divisions figures saw "comfortable beats". Other key movers today; GSK (+3%, headline beats and upgraded 2025 guidance), Deutsche Bank (+1.3%, strong Q3 profit growth), UBS (U/C, strong Q3 Net Income, plans USD 900mln buyback in Q4).

Top European News

• Politico reports that the full debate on a French wealth tax (i.e. the Zucman tax) will not happen on Wednesday or Thursday, but is likely on Friday.

FX

• DXY is on a firmer footing and trades at the upper end of a 98.62-99.00 range. Focus this morning has been on the ongoing US-China related updates, which in-brief have been positive. US President Trump said he had a great trip so far and expects to lower fentanyl-linked tariffs on China, while he will discuss farmers and fentanyl with China - most recently the President posted on Truth that "it will be a great meeting" for both countries. Elsewhere, Reuters reported that China's COFCO purchased three cargoes totalling 180k tonnes of US soybeans ahead of Trump-Xi meeting, according to sources cited by Reuters. Focus ahead is ultimately on the Fed policy announcement, where a 25bps cut is expected. Decision aside, traders will be keen on any guidance (particularly in the context of policymakers' visibility surrounding the shutdown), and look out for details on plans to end QT.
• EUR is on the backfoot and trades within a 1.1620-1.1660 range; largely moving at the whim of the USD, given the lack of European specific newsflow. On the data front, Spanish Estimated GDP Q/Q printed in-line with expectations (0.6%), whilst Y/Y was a touch softer at 2.8% (exp. 3%) - no move in the Single-currency on this. Attention now turns to the ECB on Thursday, but will ultimately lack surprises as markets almost entirely price in no change to the current policy.
• JPY is very modestly lower today, with USD/JPY trading within a 151.55-152.44 range. Out of favour today after strengthening in the prior session thanks to the US-Japan trade deal and mild haven allure. Some focus has been on US Treasury Sec Bessent who said "The Government’s willingness to allow the Bank of Japan policy space will be key to anchoring inflation expectations and avoiding excess exchange rate volatility".
• GBP is one of the worst performing currencies today, continuing some of the underperformance seen in the prior session. The Pound has been out of favour recently, following the FT article which suggested Chancellor Reeves may face a GBP 20bln hit to UK public finances after a productivity downgrade. Currently towards the lower end of a 1.3199 to 1.3280 range.
• Antipodeans are mixed; the Aussie remains a touch firmer but off best levels following the region's hotter-than-expected inflation report, whilst the Kiwi has been dragged lower by the USD.

Fixed Income

• USTs are lower by a handful of ticks, following on from a soft 7yr auction on Wednesday and as traders now await the Fed policy decision. A 25bps cut is all but certain. A decision that will likely be subject to dissent with Miran seemingly set to vote for 50bps again, after remarking since the September Fed that 25bps is too slow a pace of easing. Commentary from Powell will focus on December, -46bps implied by end-2025, and the balance sheet. QT forms the other part of the decision. Desks expect an announcement from the Fed on the balance sheet as Chair Powell suggested that the level of reserves hit an ample level in the coming months vs the current “abundant” level, a point the Fed has previously suggested it would want to hold reserves at. USTs are marginally pressured in a thin 113-11+ to 113-16+ band.
• Bunds are contained with a very marginal bearish bias, as is the case for USTs. Specifics light so far. Supply once again in focus from Germany, this time Bunds are offered after another dismal Bobl tap earlier in the week. Bunds currently at a 129.47 low, with downside of 10 ticks at most. Moving to France, another chance for a compromise to be found between the Lecornu government and Socialist Party. As Politico reports that the full debate on a French wealth tax (i.e. the Zucman tax) will not happen on Wednesday or Thursday, but is likely on Friday. Currently, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread is holding just shy of the 80bps mark.
• Gilts follow the mood across peers. The morning’s data showed an increase in individual mortgage borrowing to the highest since March 2025 with mortgage approvals also increasing. Activity driven by the effective interest rate on new mortgages dropping to 4.19%, its lowest since January 2023 when the rate was 3.88%. Gilts at the lower-end of a 93.71-89 band, within Tuesday’s 93.62 to 93.96 confines. No real move on the UK auction, which drew a b/c above 3.00x.
• UK sells GBP 3.75bln 4.125% 2033 Gilt: b/c 3.04x, average yield 4.191%, tail 0.3bps

Commodities

• WTI and Brent are trading choppy today. Morning action saw the complex pressured, despite a bullish private sector inventory report in the prior session. A quite marked bout of pressure was seen at the European cash open, which happened to coincide with commentary via the Israeli military; they suggested that it begun a renewed enforcement of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, after striking the region in the past day. However, this has since entirely reversed, with the complex now slightly higher on the session. Brent Dec'25 trades in a busy USD 63.92-64.79/bbl range.
• Spot gold is back on a stronger footing today, after a three days of losses. Nothing really fresh for the upside, but likely some modest-buying after falling below the USD 4k mark earlier in the week; as it stands the yellow-metal trades in a USD 3,907.92-4,021.79/oz range and awaits the Fed policy decision.
• Base metals are entirely in the green, amidst the broadly positive sentiment across the APAC region in anticipation of the Trump-Xi meeting on Thursday. 3M LME Copper currently in a USD 10,987.75-11,146.3/t range.
• India's MRPL Exec says they will not be purchasing Russian oil due to risks.
• US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -4.0mln (exp. -0.2mln), Distillate -4.4mln (exp. -1.7mln), Gasoline -6.3mln (exp. -1.9mln), Cushing +1.7mln.
• Ukraine hits two oil depots in Russian-occupied Crimea, according to an SBU official.

Geopolitics

• Israeli Military says it begins renewed enforcement of Gaza ceasefire agreement.
• North Korea fired a missile and stated that the missile is part of its nuclear forces, according to KCNA.
• Chinese Defence Ministry said it held talks with India about the border, while it added that both sides had active and in-depth communication on the control of the western section of the China-India border. Furthermore, they agreed to continue to maintain communication and dialogue through military and diplomatic channels.
• US Defense Secretary Hegseth said the security situation around Japan remains severe and noted that their alliance is critical to deterring Chinese military aggression.
• "The strikes in the Gaza Strip are nearing completion", according to i24's Stein citing Israeli officials from Jerusalem Post; "In light of the ongoing violations, additional response measures will be taken.".

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Oct 24 MBA Mortgage Applications 7.1%, prior -0.3%
• 8:30 am: Sep P Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.15%
• 10:00 am: Sep Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 1.2%, prior 4%
• 2:00 pm: Oct 29 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound), est. 4%, prior 4.25%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Another post-op day of not too much pain during the day and then a lot of pain at night. I never knew I had hip flexors before they had to bear the brunt of my recent spinal adjustments. Although the most pain yesterday was actually shaving off a two-week-old beard. That was agony!

A quick reminder that our latest annual Long-Term Study, The Ultimate Guide to Long-Term Investing, was published on Monday. It’s currently featured as the lead report on the Deutsche Bank Research Institute site here, and is open access—so feel free to share it widely. While it may not rival the billion-plus streams of Taylor Swift’s latest album released earlier this month, I’ve been genuinely humbled by the response: around 8,000 downloads in the first 36 hours. Thank you all for the great support but let’s get a little bit nearer to Taylor.

Turning to markets, while global equities have largely consolidated over the past 24 hours, US stocks continued their upward trajectory yesterday. The S&P 500 rose by +0.23%, the Nasdaq gained +0.80%, and the Magnificent 7 advanced +1.27%, all notching fresh highs. Despite the headline gains, the breadth of the rally was rather narrow. In fact, there were only 104 advancers in the S&P 500, the fewest in over two weeks, and actually the fewest on an up day as far back as my data on advancers and decliners goes (to 1990). So remarkable. This came ahead of today’s widely anticipated 25bps Fed rate cut—which is fully priced—and earnings releases from Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta after the bell.

The rally was once again driven by tech and AI momentum, despite a packed macro and geopolitical backdrop. Notably, the US announced new trade initiatives with Japan and South Korea, while the new ADP’s preliminary private payrolls data helped ease some labour market fears. In contrast, European equities gave back some recent gains, with the STOXX 600 down -0.22%, while yields were little changed.

Nvidia (+4.98%) again topped the list of standout corporate developments, with CEO Jensen Huang dismissing concerns about an AI bubble as he unveiled a flurry of new partnerships with the likes of Uber, Palantir and Crowdstrike as well as a $1bn investment into Nokia and a new system to connect quantum computers to Nvidia’s AI chips. Nokia itself rose nearly 21% to the highest in around a decade. Maybe they'll bring back the (wonderful) game snake! Meanwhile, Microsoft rose +1.98% after revealing a 27% stake in OpenAI, which in turn committed to purchasing up to $250bn in Azure services. That move left Microsoft back above $4trn market cap mark, with Apple (+0.07%) also flirting with that level intra-day before closing at a $3.99trn valuation. PayPal also rallied +3.94% following an earnings upgrade and news of a partnership with OpenAI. If you’ve been tracking OpenAI’s deal flow lately, you’ve had your hands full. The AI-driven exuberance lifted the Magnificent 7 by +1.27%, even as Amazon (+1.00%) announced plans to cut around 14,000 corporate roles as part of a broader resource reallocation strategy.

The equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 was down -0.91% as defensive sectors such as utilities (-1.66%) and consumer staples (-0.95%) struggled. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which tracks US-listed Chinese firms, fell -1.23% amid some investor nerves ahead of the anticipated Trump-Xi meeting at the APEC summit. However, sentiment improved slightly after reports from the Wall Street Journal suggested the two leaders may discuss rolling back some of a 20% fentanyl-related US tariffs in exchange for Chinese action on fentanyl precursor exports. Overnight Trump has confirmed he expects progress this week on fentanyl. On Monday we mentioned this as a key metric on which to judge the Trump-Xi meeting.

US tech sentiment also benefited from trade announcements. The US and Japan unveiled plans to collaborate on AI infrastructure and critical minerals, tied to Japan’s $500bn investment pledge and a 15% tariff agreement. Bloomberg later reported that a similar deal with South Korea—focused on AI, quantum computing, and 6G—could be signed later today. Details remain sparse, but more clarity is expected imminently.

Today’s marquee event, aside from earnings, is the FOMC meeting. A 25bps rate cut is widely expected, bringing the target range to 3.75–4%. With the US government shutdown now in its fifth week, our economists anticipate that Chair Powell’s press conference will pivot away from economic data—given its scarcity—and instead focus on balance sheet policy, the policy framework review, and financial stability. For a full preview, see here. On QT, our team expects the Fed to announce an end to the programme today, with run-off concluding next month.

Ahead of the Fed, we received a few data points yesterday that modestly surprised to the upside. An ADP report showed a weekly average gain of 14,250 private-sector jobs in the four weeks to October 11, so translating to a +57k monthly pace—which would represent some stabilization after recent slowing in the ADP jobs series. Notably, ADP will now publish weekly preliminary job estimates, offering a more high-frequency lens on labour market dynamics. Meanwhile, the FHFA house price index rose +0.4% m/m, its strongest monthly print since last year, while the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index came in at 94.6 (vs 93.4 expected), though still a point below the prior month’s upwardly revised figure. These data points helped nudge Treasury yields higher early in the US session, but both the 2yr (-0.2bps) and 10yr (-0.4bps) reversed this move later on as breakevens fell amid a decline in oi price (-1.84% to $64.41/bbl for Brent).

Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada is also expected to announce a 25bps cut today. You can see our FX strategists’ quick take on the BoC and the Canadian dollar here.

Today will also see the Dutch general election, with polls closing at 9pm CET tonight. The early vote was triggered when the right-wing populist PVV pulled out of the ruling coalition in June. PVV has led in opinion polls but its lead has ebbed away most recently and it appears likely to get fewer seats than in the last election two years ago.

Looking at European moves yesterday, French equities saw a modest pullback amid the ongoing budget deliberations as the centre-left has pushed for more changes while the government seeks to keep the deficit below 5%. As a reminder, the first part of the French budget bill—covering revenues and the overall balance—is currently under debate in the National Assembly, with a vote expected by 4 November. The CAC fell -0.27%, though 10yr OATs (+0.3bps) marginally outperformed bunds (+0.8bps).

Across the continent, the STOXX 600 slipped -0.22%, while the FTSE 100 continued its record-breaking run, up +0.44%. The DAX edged down -0.12% after Germany’s GfK consumer sentiment forecast for November disappointed (-24.1 vs -22.0 expected), driven by a sharp drop in income expectations amid job security concerns. The ECB’s Bank Lending Survey also pointed to a slight softening in credit conditions, suggesting that the transmission of recent monetary easing may be slowing. While unlikely to alter Thursday’s rate decision—expected to remain on hold at 2%—at the margin, the survey may give cause for a more dovish tilt. For more, see our economists’ analysis here.

Asian equity markets are mostly higher this morning, supported by record closing highs on Wall Street overnight. The Nikkei is leading the gains, up +2.28%, reaching a new record high amid renewed optimism over US-Japan trade relations. The KOSPI has also rebounded strongly, rising +1.26% after losses in the previous session, with sentiment buoyed by enthusiasm around AI. Mainland Chinese stocks are also in positive territory, with the CSI 300 up +0.74% and the Shanghai Composite gaining +0.42%, while the Hang Seng remains closed. In contrast, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 is underperforming, down -0.97%, following hotter-than-expected inflation data that has dampened expectations for near-term policy easing. US equity futures are pointing higher, with the S&P 500 up +0.21% and the NASDAQ 100 up +0.37% at the time of writing.

In Australia, inflation accelerated during the September quarter, with consumer prices rising at an annual rate of +3.2%, above the +3.0% consensus and up from +2.1% in the June quarter. Headline inflation rose +1.3% quarter-on-quarter, marking the strongest quarterly increase since March 2023. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred trimmed mean measure also surprised to the upside, increasing +1.0% over the quarter versus an RBA assumption of +0.6% and a recent market expectation of 0.8%. This pushed the annual trimmed mean rate to +3.0%, up from +2.7% in June. The hotter inflation print has led to a sell-off in short-dated Australian government bonds, with yields on the policy-sensitive 3-year bonds climbing +12.0bps to 3.57%, and 10-year yields rising +5.1bps to 4.22%. The Australian dollar continues to strengthen, rising for a fifth consecutive session and currently trading at 0.6597 against the US dollar, up +0.18%.

Looking ahead, today’s key events include the Fed and BoC decisions. Data releases feature US September advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, and pending home sales; UK September net consumer credit; Italy’s September PPI and hourly wages; and Sweden’s September GDP indicator. Earnings are due from Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, SK Hynix, UBS, and others. The US will auction $30bn in 2yr FRNs. And we also have the early general election in the Netherlands.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 08:29

China Buys American Soybeans Before Trump-Xi Meeting 

After President Trump secured a rare-earths deal and new U.S. investments during his Asia tour in Japan, he met with South Korea's top leadership on Wednesday to discuss boosting America's shipbuilding industry, including a potential $350 billion investment in the U.S. The meeting comes just one day before Trump is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Ahead of the highly anticipated Trump-Xi meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, Beijing appears to be extending a gesture of goodwill, including the purchase of at least two cargo shipments of U.S. soybeans.

Reuters reports that China's state-owned COFCO purchased about 180,000 metric tons of soybeans for December and January shipment through Pacific Northwest port terminals. This marks China's first purchase of U.S. soybeans from this year's harvest and comes after the world's second-largest economy had pivoted away from American supplies in favor of Brazilian and Argentine beans.

Via Bloomberg

Soybean futures in Chicago advanced 2.3% on Monday, followed by another 1.5% gain on Tuesday, climbing above $11 a bushel, a 15-month high. Contracts stalled on Wednesday ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. In recent years, contracts have tumbled because of China's sourcing pivot toward South America. 

On Sunday, Bessent told NBC News' "Meet the Press" moderator Kristen Welker that China was ready to make a deal "after two days of negotiations." He noted at the time that the "successful framework" was prepared for the Trump-Xi meeting. "I'm also anticipating that we will get some kind of a deferral on the rare earth export controls that the Chinese had discussed," he said, adding, "I think we are going to be able to discuss substantial soybean and [agriculture] purchases for our American farmers."

.@SecScottBessent on talks with China: "I think we have addressed the farmers' concerns — and I'm not going to get ahead of the President, but I believe when the announcement of the deal with China is made public, that our soybean farmers will feel very good." pic.twitter.com/8n6Tj4U2qk

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) October 26, 2025

Additional signs of cooling Sino-US trade tensions came from an overnight headline via WSJ that discussed Trump's move to lower tariffs on China in exchange for restricting the Chinese export of fentanyl precursor chemicals that end up on the streets of America and fuel the drug death overdose crisis, killing 100,000 per year. 

"I expect to be lowering that because I believe that they're going to help us with the fentanyl situation," Trump told reporters during a Tokyo-Gyeongju flight earlier. "They're going to be doing what they can do."

Cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket has odds of around 78% that Trump secures a trade deal with China tomorrow. 

All indications and messaging from the White House suggest that securing a US-China trade deal tomorrow is highly likely. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 08:25

Food Stamps To Be Paused For 42 Million Americans: What To Know...

Food stamps are set to be paused on Nov. 1 because of the government shutdown.

Some 42 million Americans will not receive benefits through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) until Congress approves new funding, according to federal officials, although some states have taken steps to intervene.

Congress made money available for SNAP for October before failing to reach a new government funding agreement, which resulted in the government shutting down on Oct. 1, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in a letter to regional and state SNAP officials.

There is not enough money to pay full SNAP benefits to the approximately 42 million SNAP recipients in November, the USDA says.

“Bottom line, the well has run dry,” the USDA said on Oct. 25.

“At this time, there will be no benefits issued November 01.”

As Ryan McMaken details below, via The Mises Institute, according to the Treasury Department’s report on federal spending for fiscal year 2025, total spending on food stamps—also known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)—was $106 billion for the twelve-month period ending September 30. Even in our post-covid age of runaway monetary inflation, 106 billion dollars is still, as they say, “real money,” and SNAP spending doesn’t even include other food-subsidy programs like WIC and school lunch programs.  

In spite of much talk about how the Trump administration is supposedly defunding these programs, they’re not going anywhere. For the calendar year of 2025, the US is on pace to see an increase of six to seven billion dollars over 2024’s SNAP spending total of $99.7 billion. This only continues the longer term upward trend in food-stamp spending. 

Indeed, since the Great Recession (i.e., 2008), when total SNAP spending was $52 billion, total spending on the program has doubled—even when measured in inflation-adjusted dollars. 

The number of food-stamp recipients has “only” increased by 47 percent over that same period, meaning that per-capita spending for recipients has gone up.

In 2008, total SNAP spending per recipient was $1,847. By 2024, overall  per-recipient spending had increased by 30 percent, rising to $2,393. 

The overall trend continues upward although the biggest increases occurred during the first Obama administration, during the Biden years, and under Trump’s mega-spending increases of 2020. 

Since 2010, the total percentage of the US population that is on food stamps has not fallen below 12 percent. 

Nationwide, the total percentage of the population receiving food stamps can vary significantly by state, and region. Measured state-by-state, we find that more than one in five residents of New Mexico receive food stamps. In Utah, on the other hand, fewer than one in twenty receive food stamps. 

There are sizeable differences by race and ethnicity as well. Although they comprise 58 percent of the US population, non-Hispanic whites account for only 36.5 percent of all SNAP recipients. Blacks comprise about 26 percent of SNAP recipients although blacks are only 12 percent of the US population. Asians comprise 3.3 percent of the food-stamp recipient population. Those who self-identify as Hispanic (of any race) comprise 16 percent of the recipient population. (Note: according to the Census Bureau data used here, “Hispanic” is classified as an ethnicity and not a race. Since fifty percent of Hispanics self-identify as “white,” self-identified whites actually comprise 71 percent of the population, not 58 percent. (Pew studies suggest that 58 percent of Hispanics self-identify as white.)

Source: “Characteristics of SNAP Households, 2019“, 2020 Census tables P3, P4, P7

Immigration status can be a factor as well. According to the Census Bureau’s Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), more than a third of immigrant-headed households receive food stamps or some other form of food subsidy such as WIC. Nearly half of households headed by illegal-immigrants receive food stamps. (This data is from the 2022 SIPP report.) The percentage for native-born households, on the other hand, is 25 percent. (Note: This is a household number, so is not comparable to the total percentage of individuals in the US population who receive food stamps.)

Source: CIS analysis of 2022 SIPP report data. 

In any case, it is remarkable that one in 8 US residents now receive food stamps, and during a period when the “official” opinion is that the US economy is in excellent shape and in a boom period.

This disconnect is due to two factors:

First, it has become easier to qualify for food stamps over the past 15 years.

Moreover, aggregated data about the overall economy hides the fact that economic conditions for lower income households is not nearly as good as that of higher-income groups.

In many cases, thanks largely to the central bank and its monetary inflation, income and wealth have stagnated for middle- and lower- income groups while net worth and income has soared for those who own large amounts of assets and benefit from the financialized economy. 

Epoch's Zachary Stieber details the standoff in Washington...

Trump Admin: Contingency Funds Can’t be Used

Democrats and some organizations have urged the USDA to utilize its contingency funds to ensure that at least some recipients don’t have benefits paused.

About $5 billion in contingency funding is available, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. The remaining $3 billion could come from other areas, the center said, pointing to how the Trump administration used $300 million in revenue from tariffs to fund a separate program in October called the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children.

“There are clear steps the administration can and must take immediately to ensure that millions of families across the country can put food on their table in November,” Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.), the top Democrat on the House Subcommittee on Nutrition and Foreign Agriculture, and 213 other House Democrats said in a letter to USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins. Most Senate Democrats sent a similar letter to the agriculture secretary.

The USDA said in a memorandum that it could not legally use the contingency funds because the pending pause is not an emergency. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) backed that position on Oct. 27.

Can States Take Action?

States cannot cover benefits, according to the USDA memo.

“There is no provision or allowance under current law for states to cover the cost of benefits and be reimbursed,” it stated.

Some states have said they will help SNAP recipients, including Virginia and Louisiana, whose governors declared emergencies to obtain emergency funds. They have not yet released details of how they will utilize emergency funds to assist food stamp recipients.

Other states have said that instead of directly providing SNAP benefits, they will look to help recipients access food. Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont said Monday that he was sending $3 million to Connecticut Foodshare to help the nonprofit with the expected higher burden when food stamps are paused. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said her administration has fast-tracked $30 million to food banks.

Lawsuit Explored

State officials have decried the looming deadline for SNAP.

Although none have filed lawsuits, officials in at least one state said they’re exploring litigation.

“Even with state efforts, the lack of federal SNAP funding will disrupt the lives of over 63,000 Vermonters and could cause real harm,” Vermont Gov. Phil Scott said in a statement on Oct. 27.

“This is another area where there is bipartisan support for a lawsuit seeking to require the federal government to release contingency funding it has available for emergencies. I have directed my administration to work with Attorney General [Charity] Clark to support a multi-state lawsuit.”

What About Saved Benefits?

The SNAP program gives debit-like cards that are boosted each month with money to buy groceries.

People do not have to use their allocated money each month.

It’s unclear whether people who have accumulated money on their cards will still be able to use them.

State officials have offered conflicting views, and the USDA has not responded to requests for comment on the matter.

*  *  *

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 08:05

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 7.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 24, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 9 percent from the previous week and was 111 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates decreased for the fourth consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate down to 6.3 percent, its lowest level since September 2024. This recent decline in rates spurred the second consecutive week of increased refinance activity, driven mainly by conventional refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The ARM share of applications, which had been trending higher, dipped below 10 percent last week, as lower rates prompted more borrowers to choose fixed rate loans. Additionally, the average loan size of a refinance application remained elevated at $393,900, as borrowers with larger loan sizes continue to be sensitive to rate movements. Purchase applications increased compared to a holiday-shortened week across most loan types. However, USDA applications fell more than 26 percent, impacted by the ongoing government shutdown.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.30 percent from 6.37 percent, with points decreasing to 0.58 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 20% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined.

Biden Official Worked With Chinese Influence Group To Undermine U.S. Tariff Negotiations

Authored by Natalie Winters via Substack,

When President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods, the Chinese Communist Party didn’t just retaliate with trade measures. It launched an information war, using American insiders to spread its narrative that tariffs were reckless and self-defeating.

One of the most prominent voices in that campaign is Rick Waters, a former senior U.S. diplomat who once directed the State Department’s China House.

Since leaving government, Waters has become a reliable messenger for Beijing’s preferred positions, appearing with CCP-linked influence groups and using Western media outlets to promote pro-China talking points that undermine Trump’s trade strategy.

From State Department Insider to Beijing’s Trusted Voice

In late 2024, Waters participated in an official interview for China–US Focus, a platform run by the China–United States Exchange Foundation (CUSEF). In the interview, he called for “restraint” and “dialogue,” insisting that “both sides must avoid confrontation.” The phrasing matched Beijing’s diplomatic line word for word.

Shortly afterward, he appeared as a featured participant at the 2024 U.S.–China Hong Kong Forum, another CUSEF-organized event that gathered Chinese Communist Party officials, Hong Kong elites, and select Western figures for “private dialogue.” The agenda promised to explore “mutual respect” and “pathways to cooperation,” but the guest list told a different story.

CUSEF was founded by Tung Chee-hwa, a vice chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, the advisory body that sits under the CCP’s United Front Work Department. The United Front is the arm of the Party responsible for foreign influence operations and elite recruitment.

The United Front: Beijing’s Hidden Ministry of Influence

Behind the polished language of “dialogue” and “mutual understanding” lies one of the CCP’s most dangerous tools of foreign interference: the United Front Work Department.

According to U.S. and allied intelligence reports, the UFWD operates as the Party’s “hidden ministry of influence.” It is tasked with guiding foreign elites, shaping overseas media narratives, and blurring the line between diplomacy, propaganda, and espionage.

The U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission calls it “the primary entity coordinating influence operations targeting foreign elites, media, and business leaders.”

Beijing’s own statements describe the department’s mission even more plainly: to “unite all possible forces” in service of China’s goals. In practice, that means cultivating Western politicians, academics, and journalists who can quietly normalize the CCP’s worldview inside democratic systems.

CUSEF: The Tip of the Spear

CUSEF serves as the frontline export of the United Front’s operations in the United States.

Founded in Hong Kong but deeply embedded in American institutions, it sponsors delegations of journalists, funds think tank partnerships, and organizes private roundtables with U.S. officials—all designed to project the image of “constructive engagement” while advancing Beijing’s interests.

A Senate investigation previously flagged CUSEF’s activities as a national security concern, citing its repeated attempts to “influence media narratives” and secure “favorable coverage” of China. Intelligence analysts describe it as “the tip of the spear” of Beijing’s foreign influence strategy—its charm offensive with a strategic purpose.

CUSEF’s Shadow Diplomacy and the National Security Risk

Waters’ participation in the Hong Kong forum raises serious counterintelligence questions. The event included private, unrecorded sessions between American participants and Chinese officials, giving Beijing a rare opportunity to map out U.S. policy networks, gauge internal divisions, and test new narratives through friendly interlocutors.

Even if Waters’ expenses or speaking fees were covered under “academic” pretenses, the optics are troubling. For a former diplomat with direct insight into Taiwan, trade, and intelligence coordination to accept travel or benefits from a foreign principal linked to an adversary state is a glaring breach of judgment.

Rooting for China in the American Press

After his involvement with CUSEF, Waters began amplifying Beijing’s messaging through major Western media outlets.

In an April 2025 feature for the Carnegie Endowment, he dismissed Trump’s tariffs as “unsustainable” and claimed Washington was “overestimating its leverage” while Beijing would “hold firm.” He painted China as disciplined and strategic, while portraying the United States as impulsive and politically motivated.

Around the same time, in an interview with the South China Morning Post, Waters declared that “anti-China sentiment in Washington does not equal consensus,” suggesting that Trump’s policies were extreme and unrepresentative of mainstream opinion. He emphasized “civil diplomacy” and “restraint,” phrases that echoed Beijing’s preferred messaging verbatim.

In NBC News, Waters repeated the claim that Trump’s tariffs were “backfiring” and “hurting U.S. consumers.” His framing, once again, aligned perfectly with the CCP’s argument that Washington’s pressure campaign was damaging its own economy.

Each appearance cast China as the rational actor and Trump’s America as the aggressor. Waters was not analyzing U.S. policy; he was defending Beijing’s narrative.

Beijing’s Propaganda Echo Chamber

Chinese state media quickly took note.

The China News Service, an outlet overseen by the United Front Work Department, amplified Waters’ remarks and quoted him directly, highlighting his claim that “the tariff war is not about winning.” His words were used to validate Beijing’s portrayal of the United States as disorganized and self-defeating.

The Real Trade War Was Always About Influence

Rick Waters’ trajectory—from Biden’s China House to CUSEF panels to favorable coverage in Chinese state outlets—reveals how Beijing uses credibility, flattery, and access to infiltrate America’s information ecosystem.

Trump’s tariffs targeted China’s economy. Beijing’s response targeted America’s elite class.

And in that quiet war for narrative control, the CCP didn’t need spies in the traditional sense. It needed insiders willing to speak its language.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 22:35

'Showing Up In Droves' - Gen Z Trades Graduation-Caps For Hard-Hats

Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times,

With college costs climbing and artificial intelligence reshaping office work, a growing number of Gen Zers are turning to construction, a new report shows. According to industry professionals, “They’re showing up in droves.”

The share of Generation Z workers—those aged 18 to 28—in the construction labor force more than doubled from 2019 to 2023, rising from 6.4 percent to 14.1 percent, according to an Oct. 10 report by the Home Builders Institute.

The share of millennials (age 29 to 44) grew to 37.7 percent from 35.7 percent over the same period. Conversely, the share of Baby Boomers (age 61 to 79) dropped to 14.2 percent from 20.6 percent as older workers moved into retirement.

The median age of construction workers during this period was 42.

The escalating cost of college, competitive wages in construction, innovation in construction technologies, and growth potential are prompting the younger generation to consider a career in the industry, according to the report.

“Even as a slowing housing market has eased some pressure off the tight labor market, attracting skilled labor, especially younger generations, remains the primary long-term goal for the construction industry,” the report states.

As of the end of 2023, approximately 71 percent of the U.S. construction labor force consisted of Gen Xers and millennials.

‘Some Have College Educations’

Fraser Patterson, founder and CEO of Skillit, a New York City-based nationwide construction industry hiring platform, told The Epoch Times that the company’s data indicate a strong trend toward younger workers entering the industry.

“We have demographics on hundreds of thousands of workers and there’s a clear shift toward Gen Z and millennials,” he said. “Some have college educations and some have completed apprenticeships, but they’re showing up in droves.”

Patterson said that for years, college has been promoted as the singular approach to attaining a middle-class lifestyle.

“But with the cost of education today, we see more and more younger people entering the workforce after high school to earn while they learn,” he said.

For those without previous construction experience, trade schools or apprenticeships represent the most common path to a career in construction. Many companies are now starting to offer entry-level positions in which employees receive on-the-job training.

Construction Jobs Safe From AI

As more industries embrace technology, Patterson noted that many tasks are being taken over by AI or outsourced globally. However, he said that construction work is “hyperlocal and AI cannot replace skilled work requiring judgement and hands-on labor.”

Michael Culnen, founder and CEO of Vermont consulting firm Construction Concepts, agrees.

He said that many professional roles are increasingly moving to AI and cheaper global workers, but construction is still one of the few fields in which work is indispensable and resistant to automation.

“Unlike many professional roles, construction cannot be outsourced, automated, or entirely replaced by AI,” he told The Epoch Times. “It offers immediate income, tangible results, and stability without requiring years of schooling or accumulating debt.”

Culnen said he believes that many Gen Z men and women are choosing this field because it provides an accessible path to generating income quickly and securing a stable livelihood.

“This new trend comes at a time when the current U.S. labor workforce is aging out at an alarming rate and needs new young talent to train up into the next wave of skilled physical labor,” Culnen said.

Patrick Murphy, chief investment officer at Miami-based Coastal Construction, told The Epoch Times: “Younger people seem to have a whole different approach to construction today than when my grandfather and father were starting out in the industry.

“The younger generations seem to look at it from a tech perspective.”

Murphy noted that Gen Zers are eager to know more about a building’s “smart” features, as well as the design aspects.

This year alone, the company took on about 50 interns and often hired entry-level positions requiring no previous construction experience.

While jobs such as electrician, plumber, and other skilled positions require formal training, new construction employees with little or no experience can often learn on the job.

Wages Keep Growing

“Some of our highest-paid construction workers are making over $100,000 a year with just a high school degree,” Murphy said. “They can make a great living and it’s a tangible experience so they can see the results of their work.”

According to the Home Builders Institute report, wages in the construction industry continued to grow, often outpacing typical earnings in other industries. Quoting data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the report indicates that the average hourly rate increased by 3.7 percent in July from a year earlier, to $39.70 per hour.

Earnings varied across the country, with Alaska, the Pacific Coast states, Illinois, Minnesota, and most Northeast states recording the highest hourly rates.

As of April, 14 states reported average earnings of more than $40 per hour, with Alaska and Massachusetts averaging more than $50.

The report also shows that year-over-year, Nevada, Mississippi, Alaska, Colorado, Texas, Florida, South Carolina, and Montana reported the fastest-growing hourly wages in the construction industry, more than doubling the national average growth of 3.6 percent. Nevada reported the largest increase of 10.6 percent.

Among construction trades, elevator installers and repairers earn the top median salaries at more than $108,000 per year, with the top 25 percent earning more than $133,000. Plumbers and electricians earn up to $81,700, while pile drive operators typically earn at least $105,000.

‘A Respected Career’

Aaron Shavel, a civil engineer at the Alliance for Innovation and Infrastructure, told The Epoch Times that the previous stigma around the trades is changing.

“Rising college costs and strong construction wages are making young people see this as a respected career, not a fallback,” he said.

“Union and non-union jobs in construction and infrastructure provide solid wages, strong benefits, and in many cases, six-figure earning potential.”

He also noted that the industry is in need of younger people to replace those who will be retiring soon.

“More than half of today’s construction workforce is expected to retire by 2036, even as demand keeps growing for people to build everything from energy projects and data centers to transportation and housing,” he said.

Shavel said he believes that the industry should continue to invest in training, apprenticeships, and other programs to encourage younger people to consider construction as their career choice.

Paul Iaccarino, director of the Building Trades Educational Benefit Fund based in Long Island, New York, operates one of the state’s largest apprenticeship programs for union electricians with the United Service Workers Union Local 363.

“This program exemplifies how non-traditional work experience can launch debt-free careers that are hands-on, mentally demanding, and resilient to automation,” he told The Epoch Times.

The program is completely free for apprentices, and as members of Local 363, they are paid as full-time employees. All costs for the program are picked up by the Building Trades Educational Benefit Fund.

The hands-on approach includes everything from installing Wi-Fi in subways one week to upgrading hospital energy systems the next.

“These young adults rack up thousands of hours of classroom and on-the-job training while earning full-time salaries, pensions, and benefits, without taking on a dime of student loan debt,” Iaccarino said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 21:45

Senate Judiciary Launches Probe Into Gates Foundation's Alleged Funding Of Chinese Military Fronts

Scrutiny of the nonprofit world is increasing by the week. Regarding the Gates Foundation, rumblings surfaced in late August when the foundation abruptly severed ties with the Arabella network. This is the same network that bankrolls color-revolution-style operations run by No Kings partners, also known as the permanent protest-industrial complex.

Now, congressional pressure is mounting on the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation as U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley of Iowa launched an investigation into the foundation's alleged funneling of tens of millions of dollars in grants to entities tied to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), raising serious concerns over potential violations of U.S. tax laws governing 501(c)(3) world. 

"According to recent reports, the Gates Foundation, through grants and direct payments, have funded the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its allies. I am writing today to ask you whether these reports are true or not and, if true, how your organization's conduct comports with 501(c)(3) requirements," Grassley wrote in the letter. 

BREAKING: Senate Judiciary is investigating the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for funneling millions of dollars to Chinese PLA fronts in violation of IRS rules against charities funding foreign governments under Foundation's 501(c)(3) nonprofit charterhttps://t.co/jmeLnlZEuT

— Paul Sperry (@paulsperry_) October 28, 2025

Grassley cited several media reports that suggested in 2023 the Gates Foundation directed:

• $11.7 million to various arms of China's government,

• $2 million to a corporation linked by the U.S. Department of Defense to the Chinese military,

• and $6.7 million to state-run universities that support Xi Jinping's regime

Grassley noted the foundation's 2022 tax filings that showed, according to the senator, "the nonprofit provided approximately $23 million in funding to over 20 different Chinese entities, some of which were labeled as "foreign governments." 

These payments were reportedly categorized as public health or research initiatives. However, IRS regulations prohibit 501(c)(3) charities from directly supporting foreign governments. This means the foundation would have to obtain IRS determination letters or equivalency determinations to ensure that foreign grants serve charitable purposes and do not violate Sections 4942 or 4945 of the IRS Code.

Grassley continued:

Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code (IRC) provides tax-exempt status for entities that are organized and operated exclusively for a charitable purpose.5 A 501(c)(3) organization may lose its tax-exempt status for failing to pursue the exempt purpose it described in its application to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). 6 With regard to activity in foreign countries, IRS guidance states that "direct grants to foreign governments do not serve IRC 501(c)(3) purposes." 7 Thus, in order to maintain tax exempt status, an organization's activities must be charitable in nature and may not directly support or promote the interests of a foreign government.8 Further, according to IRS guidance, private foundations "can distribute funds to foreign organizations to conduct activities outside of the United States, but must follow special rules when dealing with foreign organizations to avoid the excise taxes under Section 4942 and Section 4945. 

Grassley asked Gates Foundation CEO Mark Suzman to provide detailed documentation about these questionable grants :

1. Are the reports that the Gates Foundation funded Chinese government projects and initiatives, including potentially Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, accurate? Please explain.

2. How many foreign projects has the Gates Foundation funded in the last five years? Did any of these projects provide direct or indirect funding to foreign governments? Provide a list of projects and provide all records

3. When determining whether or not to fund projects and initiatives in a foreign country, what criteria does the Gates Foundation use to make that decision? Provide all records.

4. Did the foreign organizations the Gates Foundation has awarded grants to provide an IRS determination letter that it is a "recognized exempt organization" or did the Gates Foundation obtain an equivalency determination from a qualified tax practitioner? If so, provide the IRS determination letter or equivalency determination for each organization. If neither an IRS determination letter nor equivalency determination was provided, what procedures has the Gates Foundation put in place to exercise expenditure responsibility consistent with IRC 4945(h)? Provide all records.

5. Have any of the expenditures the Gates Foundation made to foreign organizations resulted in a tax under IRC 4945 or IRC 4942? Provide all records

Via Judicial Watch in a 2021 X post: 

"Microsoft founder Bill Gates' international foundation has helped the Chinese Communist government in various ways, according to a newly-released batch of emails from the NIAID under Dr. Fauci," Judicial Watch in Fox Business. READ: https://t.co/X7E5ZoVkgw

— Judicial Watch ⚖️ (@JudicialWatch) October 15, 2021

Commenting on Grassley's letter, civil terrorism expert Jason Curtis Anderson of One City Rising, 

While I fully support this effort and am encouraged to see the Senate calling out the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation for funneling funds into the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and I'm glad to see the Senate taking seriously the role of nonprofits in safeguarding national security and tax-compliance, this acknowledgement in the letter from the Judiciary Committee is only the beginning of the process. The next phase must be significantly more aggressive: the Executive Branch needs to take the baton and escalate into the enforcement stage — scrutinizing grants, auditing tax-exempt status, applying relevant sanctions, and ensuring full transparency around foreign funding flows. Without concrete administrative follow-through and regulatory action, this letter risks ending as a warning rather than a real deterrent.

Beyond the Gates Foundation, it's likely that Senator Grassley's office is also scrutinizing CCP-linked billionaire Neville Roy Singham and his dark-money network, which has allegedly funded color-revolution-style operations against President Trump. 

Meanwhile, the broader far-left NGO ecosystem remains a lawless environment - one that is orchestrating regime-change against Trump and MAGA, aiming to seize power in a Marxist takeover. 

AOC: “We are not the crazy ones…. They want us to think we are crazy. We are sane.”

pic.twitter.com/zch0baKHg6

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) October 27, 2025

The pattern is becoming impossible to ignore: these dark-money NGOs are the ones pulling the strings of the deep state, hence the White House's declaration of war against them.

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Grassley's full letter:

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 21:20

Senate Committee Seeks Answers From NBA On Gambling Investigations

Authored by Jackson Richman via The Epoch Times,

The Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation is seeking answers from the NBA regarding gambling scandals that have engulfed the league.

In an Oct. 27 letter to NBA Commissioner Adam Silver, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), the committee’s chairman, and Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), the committee’s ranking member, wrote that current and former NBA players and coaches have “compromised the game’s integrity.”

Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier was apprehended in relation to an illegal sports betting operation, while Portland Trail Blazers head coach Chauncey Billups was arrested in connection to a rigged poker scheme tied to the Gambino, Bonanno, and Genovese crime families.

Former NBA player Damon Jones was also apprehended. He was allegedly tied to both schemes.

“In light of the latest allegations of gambling-related corruption involving an NBA player, we write seeking more information about how the NBA investigated and handled these allegations as well as what steps the Association is taking to maintain the public’s trust,” wrote Cruz and Cantwell.

In the case involving Rozier, the defendants allegedly used insider information to make bets and profit, according to the indictment. This involved Rozier telling two co-defendants that he was going to remove himself from a game and not return, allowing his co-conspirators to place successful and fraudulent over-under bets on how many points he was going to score and other statistics.

Jones, as an unofficial assistant coach for the Los Angeles Lakers during the 2022–2023 NBA season, allegedly sold insider information to co-conspirators about a player not being on the court for a game ahead of the injury report being released to the public, according to the indictment. The player is believed to be Lakers superstar LeBron James, who has not been accused of wrongdoing. This allowed the bettors to make certain bets based on non-public information.

Billups is an unindicted co-conspirator in the rigging scheme where he sat key players for a Trail Blazers game against the Chicago Bulls. He had his team purposefully lose the game so that the team, which was out of playoff contention, could increase its chances of getting a higher draft pick, according to the indictment. The defendants bet on the Bulls winning the game based on the insider information they got.

Cruz and Cantwell acknowledged that the NBA has not had any role in rigging games and that the league has taken steps to combat fraudulent gambling by NBA players, such as banning former Toronto Raptors player Jontay Porter for life for being connected to a betting scheme. Porter pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit wire fraud and was sentenced to 15 months behind bars.

The senators noted the NBA found that Rozier did not violate league rules.

Cruz and Cantwell asked to know about the specifics of the NBA’s investigation and why Rozier was allowed to still play on the court.

“This is a matter of Congressional concern,” wrote the lawmakers.

“The integrity of NBA games must be trustworthy and free from the influence of organized crime or gambling-related activity. Sports betting scandals like this one may lead the American public to assume that all sports are corrupt.”

Cruz and Cantwell requested documents created between Jan. 1, 2020, and the present regarding the NBA’s policies on sports betting, gambling, and game rigging; any investigation by the league for violating the NBA’s rules on those three issues; and communications between the NBA and betting platforms.

They also requested documentation between that time period regarding how the NBA plans to combat sports betting, gambling, and game rigging; and the final report and other documents relating to the league’s probe of Rozier.

The Epoch Times has reached out to the NBA for comment on the letter.

Talking to reporters, Cruz said that the NBA gambling scandal “poses a grave threat to the integrity of sports.”

He added that “prop bets in particular are an ongoing challenge, and I expect Congress and the Commerce Committee in particular to examine them closely.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 20:55

New Mexico Officials Report High Rate Of 'Forever Chemicals' In Residents Near Air Base

Authored by Michael Clements via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

New Mexico state officials on Oct. 23 presented the results of a $1.2 million project to test the blood of people living near Cannon Air Force Base for forever chemicals during a public meeting in Clovis, New Mexico.

A water researcher tests a sample of water for PFAS at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Center For Environmental Solutions and Emergency Response in Cincinnati, Ohio, on Feb. 14, 2023. Joshua A. Bickel/AP Photo

The tests found one or more forever chemicals—perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS)—in the blood of 99.7 percent of people tested. At least one of 16 PFAS chemicals was found across all 628 samples tested, and the most common were those found in firefighting foam.

According to the report, the Department of Defense and the U.S. Air Force did not participate in the testing program.

For more than 80 years, PFAS have been ubiquitous in the United States and around the world.

The family of more than 14,000 chemicals is used in stain- and water-repellent fabrics, nonstick cookware, food packaging, and firefighting foams because they resist heat, oils, stains, and water.

However, they are also almost impossible to destroy and have contaminated the water, soil, and air where they have been manufactured and used. As a result, they are now present in the bloodstreams of 99 percent of Americans, according to government officials.

A 2016 study from the Department of Health and Human Services found evidence that the PFAS family could disrupt the immune system.

Among the PFAS, PFOA (perfluorooctanoic acid) and PFOS (perfluorooctane sulfonate) have received special mention.

“The evidence that these chemicals affect multiple aspects of the immune system supports the overall conclusion that both PFOA and PFOS alter immune functions in humans,” the department’s website states.

Exposure to PFAS has also been linked to increased cholesterol, small decreases in birth weight, kidney and testicular cancer, and changes in liver enzymes.

According to state health officials, some of the chemicals can linger in the blood for several years after exposure. Research from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has found that it can take weeks to years for levels of many PFAS to decrease by half in human blood, assuming exposure isn’t ongoing.

Contamination at Cannon Air Force Base

Because of the military use of firefighting foam, areas around places such as Cannon Air Force Base in Clovis, New Mexico, are heavily contaminated.

At Cannon Air Force Base, state officials reported that PFAS have been detected in groundwater at concentrations of 26,200 parts per trillion.

In a 2024 white paper, the Environmental Council of States reported that the EPA set enforceable drinking water standards for only five PFAS chemicals.

“At this time, the U.S. has no federally enforceable PFAS standards for other PFAS or for these PFAS in other environmental media, leaving individual states to navigate various avenues for addressing contamination,” the paper said.

The EPA’s legally enforceable levels for PFOA and PFOS are 4 parts per trillion.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services at the Hubert H. Humphrey building in Washington on April 28, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

James Kenney, secretary of the New Mexico Environment Department, said that the state has sued the federal government to pay the long-term cleanup costs. He called on those present at the meeting to speak up as well.

John Wilhelmi, vice president of the Eastern Research Group, which carried out the blood testing program, told those at the Clovis meeting that the presence of PFAS doesn’t guarantee health problems.

“It doesn’t mean you will automatically get these diseases or conditions,” he said. “It just means that, out of an abundance of caution, you are recommended to be screened for this.”

The blood tests showed that PFAS levels tend to increase with age, that males have higher levels, and that those who have military or aviation careers have higher concentrations—all issues consistent with national data, according to information presented on Oct. 23.

Watchdog groups that track PFAS nationwide use EPA and state data to compile maps showing spots across the country where drinking water systems report levels above what’s recommended. Contamination has also been confirmed at hundreds of military bases across the country.

State Support

Kenney, secretary of the New Mexico Environment Department, told those gathered in Clovis that blood testing was only a first step in the state’s plan to address PFAS. He said the state has dedicated $12 million to EPCOR, a Canadian utilities company that provides services to Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas, to pay to connect residents of rural Curry County to its water lines.

Kenney said the funds should cover all costs of transferring rural residents from contaminated private water wells to a new public drinking water supply that will not be in contact with the contaminated lands.

“We hope it turns out to be a zero-cost proposition to you,” Kenney said at the gathering.

Earlier this week, New Mexico hosted a webinar on HB 212, a new law meant to eventually ban products made with PFAS from the state.

New Mexico is among hundreds of plaintiffs that are part of multi-district litigation in a South Carolina federal court that aims to hold producers and users of PFAS-laden firefighting foam accountable for contamination at sites across the country.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 20:05

Clinton Judge Blocks 'King' Trump's Ability To Fire Federal Workers During Shutdown, Indefinitely

Earlier this month, hundreds of thousands of intellectually challenged Americans took to the streets for a national 'No Kings' protest against 'King' President Trump. 

Today, a federal judge told the 'king' he can't fire federal workers during the shutdown, indefinitely. 

In a Tuesday order, Judge Susan Illson (Clinton appointee) of the US District Court for the Northern District of California made an earlier temporary ruling permanent. 

Judge Susan Illson

"Today's ruling is another victory for federal workers and our ongoing efforts to protect their jobs from an administration hellbent on illegally firing them," said Lee Saunders, President of AFSCME - a federal workers union. 

The ruling comes after the Office of Management and Budget head Russel Vought announced they were looking to terminate as many as 10,000 federal workers during the government shutdown, also known as a Reduction In Force (RIF). 

RIF notices have already gone out to about 4,000 workers. 

The move by the monarchy resulted in a lawsuit from federal worker unions at the end of last month in anticipation of the layoffs. 

Roughly two weeks ago, members of Congress, including Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), flipped out over the federal firings - calling the layoffs "arbitrary" in her opposition.

Sen. Susan Collins speaks to reporters at the U.S. Capitol on July 15. Photo: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

"Regardless of whether federal employees have been working without pay or have been furloughed, their work is incredibly important to serving the public," Collins said Oct. 10. 

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, meanwhile, said in a statement that the Trump administration was "callously choosing to hurt people."

And now, 'king' Trump can't do that. 

*  *  *

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 19:40