Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Every Housing Down Cycle is "unhappy in its own way"

Excerpt:

“All happy families are alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” Leo Tolstoy, Anna Karenina

Maybe we could say that all housing booms look alike, but every down cycle is “unhappy in its own way.”

In March 2022, I wrote Don't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust. Instead, I suggested a more similar period was the late ‘70s to early ‘80s.

It is natural to compare the current housing boom to the mid-00s housing bubble. The bubble and subsequent bust are part of our collective memories. And graphs of nominal house prices and price-to-rent ratios look eerily similar to the housing bubble.

However, there are significant differences. First, lending has been reasonably solid during the current boom, whereas in the mid-00s, underwriting standards were almost non-existent (“fog a mirror, get a loan”). And demographics are much more favorable today than in the mid-00s.

A much more similar period to today is the late ‘70s and early ‘80s. House prices were increasing sharply. Demographics were very favorable for homebuying as the baby boomers moved into the first-time homebuying age group (similar to the millennials now). And inflation picked up from an already elevated level due to the second oil embargo in 1979, followed by the Iran-Iraq war in 1980, driving up costs.

Sure enough, there hasn’t been a national crash in house prices. However, although there are similarities to the late ‘70s / early ‘80s period, there also significant differences. The most obvious difference is the sharp slowdown in population growth and immigration. The population and workforce were expanding sharply in the early ‘80s.

There is much more in the article.

As Japan Deploys Missiles Near Taiwan, China Blasts 'Right Wing' Forces Taking Tokyo To 'Disaster'

The ongoing China-Japan dispute and diplomatic flare-up has just gone from bad to worse, and has taken a turn toward potential military confrontation. Japan’s defense minister, Shinjiro Koizumi, visited a Japanese island which has a military outpost that lies close to Taiwan on Sunday. The optics were unmistakable, signaling Tokyo doesn't plan on backing down after two weeks of Beijing demanding a retraction. It all started when earlier this month Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made comments in a parliamentary meeting which made clear Japan could possibly intervene militarily in the scenario of China invading Taiwan.

"If there are battleships and the use of force, no matter how you think about it, it could constitute a survival-threatening situation," Takaichi had said, becoming the first Japanese top official in decades to link the Taiwan crisis to a potential Japanese military response. 

These are 'fighting optics': Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi speaks to reporters after inspecting the Ground Self-Defense Force garrison on Yonaguni Island, Okinawa Prefecture, on Sunday. Source: JIJI, Japan Times

Beijing immediately embarked on punishing measures, including threatening trade relations alongside urging Chinese citizens to avoid all travel to Japan.

It was only last Friday that China again warned, "Prime Minister Takaichi's openly erroneous remarks concerning Taiwan have fundamentally undermined the political foundation of China-Japan relations and severely damaged bilateral economic and trade exchanges," according to the words of a foreign ministry spokesperson.

The following threat was emphasized, "Should the Japanese side persist on its course of action and continue down the wrong path, China will resolutely take the measures required and all consequences shall be borne by Japan." The United States is standing by Tokyo's side, even as the Trump admin appears to be sticking by the long-running Washington doctrine of 'strategic ambiguity' related to Taiwan's defense.

But instead of heeding the warning and reversing course, Japanese Defense Minister Koizumi unveiled the deployment of placing medium-range surface-to-air missiles on Yonaguni island.

"The deployment can help lower the chance of an armed attack on our country," Koizumi told reporters while sporting an military commander-style jacket. He also expressly rejected Beijing's concerns, though without invoking China directly. "The view that it will heighten regional tensions is not accurate," he said.

Importantly, the island in question - and thus the new highly provocative missiles deployment - lies just under 70 miles east of Taiwan. It looks to become part of a broader military build-up in Japan's southern island chain.

China has in turn already reacted to the development, saying Sunday: "Right-wing forces in Japan are ... leading Japan and the region toward disaster," foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told a regular news briefing. Beijing "is determined and capable of safeguarding its national territorial sovereignty," she continued.

Various regional watchers are lining up on either side of the dispute, but nearly all of expressed surprise at Japan's new 'boldness'...

I’m beginning to see the rationale for China’s UN Charter Article 53 intervention. Japan is militarist insane. https://t.co/HJROyBPcvD pic.twitter.com/W3WQZs5fIE

— Kathleen Tyson (@Kathleen_Tyson_) November 23, 2025

“The move is extremely dangerous and should raise serious concerns among nearby countries and the international community,” Mao added, also relating the whole spat back to PM Takaichi’s earlier remarks.

China has earlier warned Japan will suffer a "crushing" defeat if it ever decided to directly intervene in the Taiwan dispute. Recent years have also seen Beijing's anger grow after NATO briefly talked about opening an official office in Tokyo, but these plans were soon abandoned for the time being.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 11:40

EU And Whose Army?

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

Bonds and equities rallied on Friday and Brent crude prices fell by more than 1% as markets digested the details of a 28-point peace plan drafted by US and Russian officials. The most contentious elements of the plan are the recognition of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk as being de facto Russian, the requirement for Ukraine to reduce its armed forces to 600,000 personnel (from approximately 800-850,000 currently), a commitment from both NATO and Ukraine that the latter will never be admitted as a NATO member, and the provision for Russia to rejoin the G7 and have sanctions lifted in stages.

In return for formally ceding control of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk and renouncing ambitions to NATO membership, Ukraine would receive confirmation of sovereignty (including from Russia) be granted a NATO-style security guarantee from the United States that has been long-sought by Volodomyr Zelenskyy, be granted short-term preferential access to the EU common market, a pathway to EU membership and substantial aid for reconstruction and development – including from $100bn in frozen Russian assets.

President Trump has set a deadline of the Thanksgiving holiday this Thursday for signing the agreement, with the possibility of withholding arms and intelligence dangled as a ultimatum for delay. President Zelenskyy has said that the plan presents an “impossible choice” for Ukraine between a loss of dignity or the loss of a key defence partner. Trump seemed to acknowledge that the deal would be a bitter pill for Ukraine but that Ukrainian concessions were an inevitability if peace was going to be achieved. “He’s [Zelenskyy] going to have to like it, and if he doesn’t like it, then you know, they should just keep on fighting... at some point he’s going to have to accept something.” 

It should be pointed out that European politicians have been completely sidelined during this process. Some have balked at the terms and instead proposed alternative plan that is more favorable to their own interests and the interests of Ukraine, but lacks buy-in from the United States or Russia and does not appear to be taken seriously by Ukraine. Others have said that the EU should take the US plan as a starting point and haggle over the details. Once again, Europe’s incoherent and slow-moving political apparatus is being exploited by outside powers to its cost.

Of course, Europe has precious little leverage to inject itself into the negotiations because the defense guarantees critical to the process can only be realistically enforced by the weight of US arms. This was seemingly confirmed by the political reaction to recent comments by top French General Fabien Mandon who said that Europe has “all the knowledge, all the economic and demographic strength to deter the Moscow regime”, but “is not prepared to accept losing its children, [or] to suffer economically because priorities will be given to defense production”. The fear for some European politicians will be that if they do not accede to American terms (especially if they are grudgingly accepted by Ukraine), the United States will simply hand them the keys and tell them that Russia is now their problem to deal with. How does that fit with the “sell America, buy Europe” narrative that was driving markets earlier this year?

This process highlights the extraordinary geopolitical impotence of the EU as it – like Ukraine – has terms imposed upon it from the outside without so much as a “by your leave”. It also highlights the ongoing determination by the administration in Washington to pursue détente with Moscow as it views the Kremlin as a natural partner in the United States’ geopolitical competition with China. This is the noxiN (‘reverse Nixon’) strategy of splitting the junior partner away from the senior.

Consequently, the 28-point agreement also includes provisions for economic cooperation between Russia and the United States, explicitly in the domains of “energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.” This suits Washington on many fronts, whether it be shoring up its own supply chain vulnerabilities, keeping the EU off-balance, or ensuring that Russia can present a credible check against Chinese dominance of central Asia (where Russian influence has been waning).

Of course, there are also risks here for the United States. Impatience to reach a deal to end the war so that the USA can focus its attentions on the Indo-Pacific risks agreeing to terms that would be too generous to Russia, and effectively vindicate its strategy of using military force to reset the geopolitical order in Eastern Europe. As President Zelenskyy has repeatedly pointed out, Russia has already violated peace agreements numerous times in the past. Would a US defence guarantee be sufficiently credible to deter such violations in the future? Is it credible to believe that Russia is willing to abandon its conception of the Russkiy Mir (Russian World) in the Baltics, the rest of Ukraine and Transnistria? Can Vladimir Putin credibly seek to end a war that has driven rapid growth in real wages and commensurately rapid growth in consumer spending at home?

Striking an agreement that allows Russia to achieve the objectives of its war also risks legitimizing force as a tool of state policy elsewhere. This is an obvious risk in East Asia, where relations between China and Japan are at their most tense in decades as the former accuses the latter of meddling in its internal affairs by saying that it would consider a Chinese invasion of Taiwan to constitute a threat to its own security – and therefore justify a military response. What message will be taken by parties to simmering territorial disputes in the Middle East, or Kashmir, or any number of other geopolitical hotspots?

While the world digested the US-Russia plan for peace in Ukraine another conception of world order was being promoted at the G20 Summit in South Africa over the weekend. The theme of the summit was “Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability”, which sounds very idealistic and perhaps feels a bit 2010s in its optimism for multilateralism in an environment where great powers are embracing realist conceptions of foreign policy. Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that the summit was “a reminder that the center of gravity in the global economy is shifting”, pointing out that it “brought together nations representing three-quarters of the world’s population, two-thirds of global GDP and three-quarters of the world’s trade, and that’s without the United States formally attending.”

While the sums are undoubtedly right, Carney is perhaps glossing over the Achilles heel that is the lack of cohesion among the group’s constituent parts, and also over the degree to which a unified marginal power can still set the agenda globally. After all, it was only in the recent past that the EU had a greater population, larger GDP and conducted more trade than the USA, but who calls the tune in that relationship?

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 11:20

Trump Set To Propose Framework To Halt "Surprise" Obamacare Price Hikes

President Trump is expected to announce a general framework to address health care costs, and wants Congress to send a bill to his desk that would halt Affordable Care Act premium spikes, according to MS Now, citing two White House officials familiar with the plans. 

US President Donald Trump arrives on the South Lawn of the White House on November 22, 2025.North America/Getty Images

Trump's proposed framework - the "Healthcare Price Cuts Act," would seek to terminate what White House officials referred to as "surprise premium hikes" due to the ACA, and would eliminate "zero-premium" subsidies currently offered under the ACA - as well as stopping "ghost beneficiaries" - which would require a small premium payment as a means to verify eligibility to receive benefits in order to minimize fraudulent recipients. 

The plan also features a deposit program that would incentivize lower-premium options on the ACA exchange. For those who downgrade coverage, the difference in costs would be distributed to a "Health Savings Account" that would be funded by the taxpayers. 

The move comes as pandemic-era ACA subsidies are set to expire at year's end, which will send prices back up for nearly 22 million Americans. News of Trump's plan comes amid a bipartisan proposal from the House for a two-year extension of Obamacare subsidies. If premiums expire, premiums are expected to more than double next year, while an estimated 2 million more people will become uninsured, the Congressional Budget Office found. 

The announcement, which could come as soon as today, is slated to feature remarks from Trump and Dr. Mehmet Oz - administrator for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the officials said, adding that Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) were expected to have been briefed Sunday afternoon. As CNN reports, however, " a White House official said that “until President Trump makes an announcement himself, any reporting about the Administration’s healthcare positions is mere speculation.”"

But the framework under discussion envisions temporarily extending the ACA subsidies in some form, while incorporating a series of guardrails aimed at limiting their scope — potentially including new income limits and a requirement that all enrollees pay some form of premium.

Those provisions would address two of the main critiques that Republicans have about the enhanced subsidies, including that so-called zero premium plans drive fraudulent behavior. But it would also set up the ACA for a more fundamental overhaul down the road along the lines of what Trump has been demanding in recent weeks. 

Democrats notably kept the government shut down for more than a month over their demand for an extension of the enhanced ACA subsidies. In exchange for their vote to finally reopen through January, Senate Republicans agreed to hold a mid-December vote on an extension, spurring Trump and his team to develop their own competing proposal.

Republicans, meanwhile, have wanted to restore an income cap for the Obamacare subsidies, which had been at 400% of the federal poverty level before the enhancement took effect in 2021. The elimination of that cap made plans more affordable for the middle class.

According to recent polling from KFF, almost 75% of Americans support extending the ACA tax credit, including 50% of Republicans. 

GOP Sens. Rick Scott of Florida and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana have rolled out their own proposals that would allow consumers to take at least part of their federal subsidies and put that money into health savings accounts - with Scott's plan calling for allowing enrollees to use all the aid to buy coverage, including potentially less comprehensive and less expensive plans outside the ACA. Cassidy wants to shift the enhanced subsidies to HSAs and allow enrollees to use the funds to pay for health care services, including doctors visits, prescriptions and glasses. 

Question: If the plan allows some people to choose a lower-tier insurance plan on the exchanges to redirect some federal aid into a health savings account, why can't we also have cheap catastrophic coverage that kicks in after someone's spent, say $25,000 out of pocket? 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 11:00

Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: PPI, Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, And Ukraine Ultimatum

It should be another busy, holiday-shortened, week after a volatile one last week as markets whipsawed around big moves in Fed pricing and AI bubble risk fears. Before we get to Thanksgiving, DB's Jim Reid writes that in the US, delayed post-shutdown data will be compressed into the first three days because of the holiday. Tomorrow brings September’s retail sales and PPI, followed on Wednesday by jobless claims and durable goods orders. The claims data will be particularly important as they cover the November survey week, and the Federal Reserve is expected to lean heavily on these figures and other alternative indicators ahead of its December meeting, given there’ll be no more payroll data prior to the FOMC.

Globally, attention will turn to inflation reports from Europe and Japan, as well as the long-awaited UK Budget, which could prove pivotal for the country’s fragile fiscal outlook. Perhaps the most significant geopolitical development will be Ukraine’s response to the US ultimatum to accept the 28-point peace plan agreed with Russia, with an ultimatum set for before Thanksgiving on Thursday, although the US seem to have indicated over the weekend that there is some room for negotiation.

Let's start with the US, and for tomorrow's September PPI data, benign prints are expected by DB economists for headline (+0.2% vs -0.1% last) and core (+0.2% vs -0.1%), echoing recent CPI trends. Categories feeding into core PCE will be in focus, with forecasts pointing to a 0.26% monthly gain, keeping the annual rate near 2.9%. This will be the last inflation update before the Fed’s December decision, as October CPI and November CPI have been pushed back to mid-December.

Retail sales are forecast by DB economists to show modest gains after strong summer spending: headline +0.1% (vs +0.6% last), ex-auto +0.2% (vs +0.7%), while retail control may dip slightly (-0.1% vs +0.7%). Even so, Q3 retail control growth is tracking at 6.8% annualized —the strongest since early 2023—supporting expectations for robust goods spending once GDP data is published. Factory sector updates arrive Wednesday with durable goods orders for September and the Chicago PMI for November (45.0 vs 43.8). Headline orders are expected to fall (-2.4% vs +2.9%), but ex-transportation (+0.2% vs +0.4%) and core orders (+0.2% vs +0.6%) should post moderate gains, implying a solid 5.3% annualised increase for Q3. Don’t forget Black Friday where we will start to see early evidence of how strong consumer spending is into the important Christmas period.

No Fed speakers are scheduled at this stage. The blackout period begins on Saturday ahead of the December meeting but with Thanksgiving on Thursday, it will start a lot earlier than it normally would.  

European data highlights include preliminary November CPI prints for Germany (2.6% YoY expected), France (0.92%) and Italy (1.23%) on Friday, alongside Q3 GDP releases for Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. Germany’s Ifo survey kicks off the week today, followed by consumer confidence on Thursday and retail sales Friday. France will also report confidence and spending data that day. In the UK, the Autumn Budget on Wednesday will be the main event. Expectations point to roughly £35bn in fiscal consolidation, marking a second historic tax-raising budget under Chancellor Reeves. See our economist Sanjay Raja’s preview here in what is one of the most hotly anticipated UK budgets in recent memory. Sanjay may need a lie down in a dark room after Wednesday as it’s fair to say he’s been in high demand of late.  

From central banks, the ECB will publish its October meeting account on Thursday and its consumer expectations survey Friday. In New Zealand, the RBNZ meets Wednesday, with a 25bps rate cut anticipated. Elsewhere, Australia reports October CPI (Wednesday), Canada releases Q3 GDP, and China publishes October industrial profits. Japan’s focus will be on November Tokyo CPI and October activity data (Friday).

With Q3 earnings season winding down, results from Alibaba, Meituan, Analog Devices, Dell and HP will draw attention.

Day-by-day calendar of events, courtesy of DB

Monday November 24

• Data: US October Chicago Fed national activity index, November Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, Germany November Ifo survey
• Central banks: ECB’s Lagarde and Nagel speak
• Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn)

Tuesday November 25

• Data: US November Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, Dallas Fed services activity, October pending home sales, September retail sales, PPI, FHFA house price index, Q3 house price purchase index, August business inventories, Japan October PPI services, EU27 October new car registrations
• Central banks: ECB’s Villeroy, Makhlouf, Sleijpen and Cipollone speak
• Earnings: Alibaba, Analog Devices, Dell, HP, Workday, Zscaler, Nio
• Auctions: US 2-yr FRN (reopening, $28bn), 5-yr Notes ($70bn)

Wednesday November 26

• Data: US November MNI Chicago PMI, September durable goods orders, initial jobless claims, Australia October CPI, Norway Q3 GDP
• Central banks: RBNZ decision, Fed’s Beige Book, ECB’s financial stability review, ECB’s Muller, Vujcic and Lane speak
• Auctions: US 7-yr Notes ($44bn)
• Other: UK autumn budget

Thursday November 27

• Data: China October industrial profits, Japan November Tokyo CPI, October jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, retail sales, industrial production, Germany December GfK consumer confidence, Italy November economic sentiment, September industrial sales, Eurozone October M3, November economic confidence, Canada Q3 current account balance
• Central banks: ECB’s account of October meeting, BoJ’s Noguchi speaks, BoE’s Greene speaks
• Other: US Thanksgiving Day holiday

Friday November 28

• Data: UK November Lloyds Business Barometer, Japan October housing starts, Germany November CPI, unemployment claims rate, October retail sales, import price index, France November CPI, consumer confidence, October PPI, consumer spending, Q3 total payrolls, Italy November CPI, Canada Q3 GDP, Sweden Q3 GDP, Switzerland Q3 GDP
• Central banks: ECB October consumer expectations survey, ECB’s Nagel speaks
• Earnings: Meituan

Looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the September retail sales report on Tuesday and the September advanced durable goods report on Wednesday. There are no speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, with the FOMC’s blackout period scheduled to start on November 29. 

Monday, November 24 

• There are no major data releases scheduled. 

Tuesday, November 25 

• 08:30 AM Retail sales, September (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.6%); Retail sales ex-auto, September (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.7%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, September (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.7%); Core retail sales, September (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.7%): We estimate core retail sales increased 0.1% in September (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting mean reversion after an outsized increase in the prior month and a slight headwind from potential residual seasonality. We estimate headline retail sales increased 0.3%, reflecting a boost from an increase in gasoline prices.
• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, September (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.1%);PPI ex-food and energy, September (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.1%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, September (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%)
• 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller home price index, August (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last +0.2%)
• 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, November (GS 93.0, consensus 93.3, last 94.6)
• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, October (GS +3.0%, consensus +0.1%, last flat)

Wednesday, November 26 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 22 (GS 230k, consensus 230k, 220k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 15 (last 1,936k)
• 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, September preliminary (GS +1.5%, consensus +0.5%, last +2.9%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, September preliminary (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%); Core capital goods orders, September preliminary (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%); Core capital goods shipments, September preliminary (GS +0.2%, last -0.3%): We estimate that durable goods orders increased 1.5% in the preliminary September report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting an increase in commercial aircraft orders. We forecast a 0.1% increase in core capital goods orders—reflecting an improvement in the new orders components of manufacturing surveys but potential payback for the outsized increase in the prior month—and a 0.2% increase in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the increase in orders in the prior month.
• 02:00 PM Fed Releases Beige Book, December meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the September FOMC meeting period noted that three districts had reported modest activity growth, while five districts had reported no change and four districts noted a slight softening, and that uncertainty remained elevated, weighing down activity. In this month’s Beige Book, we look for anecdotes related to the evolution of labor demand and firms’ expectations of activity growth for the remainder of the year.

Thursday, November 27 

• There are no major data releases scheduled. 

Friday, November 28 

• There are no major data releases scheduled. 

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 10:35

Bessent Says Americans To See 'Substantial Refunds' Next Year, No Risk Of Recession

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Nov. 23 said the government shutdown that ended earlier this month will not create a recession risk for the broader U.S. economy and that American families would see “substantial refunds” next year.

In an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Bessent said that while portions of the U.S. economy, such as housing, were in a recession because of elevated interest rates, he did not expect the broader U.S. economy to plunge into a recession in the coming months.

“I am very, very optimistic on 2026. We have set the table for a very strong, non-inflationary growth economy,” the secretary said.

Bessent then cited provisions under the Republican-backed One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed earlier this year that he said would spur economic growth.

“So under the One Big Beautiful Bill, especially for working Americans, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, auto deductibility on loans for American cars, that’s all kicking in,” he said.

“Americans have not changed their withholdings. So we are going to see substantial, substantial refunds to working families in the first quarter of 2026. Americans will change their withholding. And they will get an increase in real income.”

A rash of trade deals would also help boost the economy, Bessent said, predicting new plant openings across the country.

“The trade deals that we’ve done, I was just at [my] hometown, Charleston, South Carolina. Boeing is expanding their Dreamliner plant, 1,000 new jobs,” he said.

President Donald Trump earlier this month signed legislation ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, extending funding through Jan. 30 and setting the stage for another potential showdown between Democrats and Republicans next year. Democrats had wanted a stopgap measure to end the shutdown to include an extension on health care subsidies that are due to expire at the end of the year.

The Trump administration is also planning an announcement this week aimed at lowering health care costs, Bessent said, echoing similar remarks from a senior White House official last week but giving no details.

Also on Nov. 23, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told Fox News’s “Sunday Morning Futures” that he expected 2026 to be “an absolute blockbuster year,” although there would be a “hiccup” in the fourth quarter of this year because of the government shutdown.

The comments from Bessent and Hassett come as Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said in an interview on Nov. 22 that she’s still leaning against the central bank cutting its benchmark interest rates. The current target range for the federal funds rate is between 3.75 percent and 4 percent, and the Fed cut rates by a quarter of a point at its most recent meeting in late October.

“My own view is that policy is currently in the kind of mildly restrictive range after the 50-basis-point easing that we did in September and October, and that’s appropriate” due to the current state of the U.S. economy, Collins told reporters at a press conference.

Members of the Trump administration, including Bessent, have wanted the Fed to lower interest rates as they have said that inflation has leveled off.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 10:20

Europe's Counter-Plan For Ukraine Peace Leaves Door Wide Open For NATO Admission

Even as the Trump White House is busy in Europe trying to get NATO and EU states on board its 28-point peace plan which controversially demands the Ukrainian side cede territory, the Europeans have leaked their own counter-plan which proposes much less in the way of compromise with Russia.

The UK, France, and Germany have put forward their own counter-proposal, and the draft differs sharply from the US version. Like with prior proposed deals, it contains terms which Moscow is expected to flatly reject, mostly notably it does not provide guarantees that Ukraine will stay out of NATO, and also absent is the ceding of any territory.

While Trump's plan makes clear that Ukraine must renounce ever joining NATO, the European draft states that Ukraine’s potential NATO membership "depends on the consensus of NATO members, which does not exist." This intentionally ambiguous language of course leaves leaves the door wide open, dependent on when such consensus is reached.

Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak, right, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in Geneva on Sunday. via AP

On giving up land, the European document says that any discussions on territorial exchanges would start from the current Line of Contact. Freezing the front lines is something President Zelensky has wanted to do all along. Moscow has seen in this a way of allowing Ukrainian forces to regroup and rearm. 

Zelensky is already not happy with the US version of the peace plan, as Ukraine would surrender the areas of Donbas it still controls, and the front lines would be frozen in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia - where Russian forces also holds territory.

However, one place where the US and European drafts do appear to be in lock-step is the one area the Kremlin is likely to take serious issue to: Washington and the West would provide security guarantee for Ukraine resembling NATO's Article 5 mutual-defense commitment.

Kiev has meanwhile been given until Thursday to provide its official response to the 28-point plan, and currently it simply looks like it is seeking the backing of Europe in coming up with a more robust pro-Ukraine plan. Trump wants to see the whole thing agreed to by Thanksgiving Day, but this is unlikely to happen, given also the leaks and ongoing blame-game over 'compromising' too much with Russia.

But all serious analysts are in agreement that Russia is dominating on the battlefield, leaving Ukraine with few options but to seek serious compromise to end the war. For example, one observer while commenting on the European plan notes it has no teeth (from Russia's perspective) and predictably Moscow will not see anything attractive in such a deal, which resembles previously failed ones, as it has:

• No ban on Ukraine joining NATO 
• Ukraine is "not be forced to be neutral"
• Ukraine is free to invite "friendly forces"
• Ceasefire & freezing current front lines 
• "No restriction" on size of Ukrainian military etc.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, surely having heard of a European counter-plan in the works, did not look impressed while in Europe on Sunday...

Marco Rubio:

I have not seen any "counter plan" from Europe. pic.twitter.com/8c5IpVo2F6

— Clash Report (@clashreport) November 23, 2025

The controversy over the US plan has seen the renewal of accusations that Trump is being too "Russia-friendly" - but journalist Michael Tracey has noted:

There's some curious propaganda going on to make people think the Ukraine "peace proposal" is a pro-Russian scheme, when it commits the US militarily, economically, politically to Ukraine beyond what virtually anyone had contemplated, and severely curtails Russian war objectives.

The BBC on Monday has conveyed mixed messaging regarding "progress" on the US 28-point plan:

• Media have reported an updated peace plan drafted by European countries, which includes new terms such as the US providing security guarantee - the BBC has not independently verified its content
• Donald Trump has teased "big progress" after the weekend’s peace talks, saying "something good just may be happening"
• Russia says it has yet to receive any new peace plans, but is open to US contacts and talks
• Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky says Russia’s reported demands to recognise the territory they have "stolen" is the "main problem" stopping an agreement

As for President Vladimir Putin, he has said it could serve as a basis for talks. "I think it could also become the foundation for a final peace settlement, but we haven’t discussed the text thoroughly,” he told Russia’s Security Council on Friday. But he expressed skepticism that Kiev and its European backers will accept it, as they "still believe they can inflict a strategic defeat on Russia on the battlefield."

But the Kremlin has still indicated that aspects of the plan do show that finally the US side "has been listening to us" and is a step in the right direction.

Below is the full draft text of the alleged European counter-plan as circulated by Reuters.

* * *

1. Ukraine's sovereignty to be reconfirmed.

2. There will be a total and complete non-aggression agreement reached between Russia and Ukraine and NATO. All ambiguities from the last 30 years will be resolved.

(Point 3 of U.S. plan is deleted. A draft of that plan seen by Reuters said: "There will be the expectation that Russia will not invade its neighbours and NATO will not expand further.")

4. After a peace agreement is signed, a dialogue between Russia and NATO will convene to address all security concerns and create a de-escalatory environment to ensure global security and increase the opportunity for connectivity and future economic opportunity.

5. Ukraine will receive robust Security Guarantees

6. Size of Ukraine military to be capped at 800,000 in peacetime.

7. Ukraine joining NATO depends on consensus of NATO members, which does not exist.

8. NATO agrees not to permanently station troops under its command in Ukraine in peacetime.

9. NATO fighter jets will be stationed in Poland

10. US guarantee that mirrors Article 5

a. US to receive compensation for the guarantee

b. If Ukraine invades Russia, it forfeits the guarantee

c. If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a robust coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be restored and any kind of recognition for the new territory and all other benefits from this agreement will be withdrawn.

11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will get short-term preferred market access to Europe while this is being evaluated

12. Robust Global Redevelopment Package for Ukraine including but not limited to:

a. Creation of Ukraine Development fund to invest in high growth industries including technology, data centres and Al efforts

b. The United States will partner with Ukraine to jointly restore, grow, modernize and operate Ukraine's gas infrastructure, which includes its pipeline and storage facilities

c. A joint effort to redevelop areas impacted by the war to restore, redevelop and modernize cities and residential areas

d. Infrastructure development

e. Mineral and natural resource extraction

f. A special financing package will be developed by the World Bank to provide financing to accelerate these efforts.

13. Russia to be progressively re-integrated into the global economy

a. Sanction relief will be discussed and agreed upon in phases and on a case-by-case basis.

b. The United States will enter into a long-term Economic Cooperation Agreement to pursue mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, AI, datacenters, rare earths, joint projects in the Arctic, as well as various other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.

c. Russia to be invited back into the G8

14. Ukraine will be fully reconstructed and compensated financially, including through Russian sovereign assets that will remain frozen until Russia compensates damage to Ukraine.

15. A joint Security taskforce will be established with the participation of US, Ukraine, Russia and the Europeans to promote and enforce all of the provisions of this agreement

16. Russia will legislatively enshrine a non-aggression policy towards Europe and Ukraine

17. The United States and Russia agree to extend nuclear non-proliferation and control treaties, including Fair Start

18. Ukraine agrees to remain a non-nuclear state under the NPT

19. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant will be restarted under supervision of the IAEA, and the produced power shall be shared equitably in a 50-50 split between Russia and Ukraine.

20. Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.

21. Territories

Ukraine commits not to recover its occupied sovereign territory through military means. Negotiations on territorial swaps will start from the Line of Contact.

22. Once future territorial arrangements have been agreed, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply if there is a breach of this obligation

23. Russia shall not obstruct Ukraine's use of the Dnieper River for purposes of commercial activities, and agreements will be reached for grain shipments to move freely through the Black Sea

24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve open issues:

a. All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on the principle of All for All

b. All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children

c. There will be a family reunification program

d. Provisions will be made to address the suffering of victims from the conflict

25. Ukraine will hold elections as soon as possible after the signing of the peace agreement.

26. Provision will be made to address the suffering of victims of the conflict.

27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by a Board of Peace, chaired by President Donald J. Trump. There will be penalties for violation.

28. Upon all sides agreeing to this memorandum, a ceasefire will be immediately effective upon both parties withdrawing to the agreed upon points for the implementation of the agreement to begin. Ceasefire modalities, including monitoring, will be agreed by both parties under US supervision.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 09:45

Lutnick: Decision On Nvidia's AI H200 Chip China Sales Now Sits On Trump's Desk

Building on last week's Bloomberg report that White House officials are quietly discussing whether to let Nvidia sell its advanced H200 AI chips to China - a complete 180 from the previous administration - US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg TV earlier that the final decision to authorize those shipments now sits on President Trump's desk.

Lutnick spoke on a wide range of topics on Bloomberg TV earlier today, noting that the decision to authorize the sale of Nvidia's H200 chips to China is now on President Trump's desk.

"Lots of different advisers" are weighing in on it, Lutnick added. 

Lutnick's comments come days after a Bloomberg report that White House officials are weighing a significant concession to China,  potentially allowing H200 shipments that would ease current AI-chip export restrictions.

The White House is also urging Congress to reject a bipartisan bill that would require Nvidia to prioritize American customers over China.

The report made clear that within the administration, there is a significant split: some officials see H200 exports as a "compromise" preferable to Blackwell exports, while others oppose any additional Nvidia exports to the world's second-largest economy. 

Also on Bloomberg TV, Lutnick spoke about the ongoing EU negotiations on steel and aluminum tariffs. He pressed the EU to ease its digital-rules agenda, noting that some member states are more flexible, and said he also spoke with the Europeans about diesel markets. 

He warned that if courts strike down existing tariffs, the administration is prepared to respond with new actions immediately.

Could those new actions take the form of financial sanctions against trading partners?

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 09:05

Spiraling Costs And A Broken Insurance Market - What Went Wrong With Obamacare

Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times,

The government shutdown might be over, but the political and financial problems that dog Obamacare haven’t gone away.

Congress is now debating a second extension of the temporary tax credits that have shielded Obamacare users from rising costs for five years. Without the subsidies, Democrats say millions of Americans will be priced out of the health insurance market at the stroke of midnight on New Year’s Eve.

President Donald Trump and other Republicans don’t want an extension; they want a transformational change that eliminates what they say are the unworkable policies and perverse incentives that have plagued the program from the beginning.

It isn’t just Republicans who say Obamacare went awry. Many experts and even some Democrats recognize that while the program did make health coverage more affordable for 24 million Americans at one point, it has essentially backfired.

Here’s how they think Obamacare went off course, how it might be overhauled, and how it upended the wider health insurance market.

Failed Aims

The Affordable Care Act aimed to make health insurance affordable for everyone and lower health care costs across the board.

“The reality of the [Affordable Care Act] could not be more different,” Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the think tank American Action Forum, said in written comments to a Senate committee on Nov. 19.

Republicans have said the system was poorly designed from its beginning in 2014. Now, some Democrats agree it has not been successful.

Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) said as much in a Nov. 6 speech imploring colleagues to extend the temporary tax credits, which expire in December.

“I owe you an answer on why it is I am standing here today asking to extend something that was temporary,” Welch said. “Here is the reason: We did fail to bring down the cost of health care.”

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) said on Nov. 19: “I think there’s remarkable agreement between Democrats and Republicans. Obamacare failed to give access to all Americans to health care, and Obamacare failed to control health care costs.”

Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) speaks with reporters after a Democratic luncheon at the U.S. Capitol on Nov. 6, 2025. Welch said the temporary tax credits should be extended because the Affordable Care Act has not reduced health care costs. Eric Lee/Getty Images

Rising Costs

When Obamacare was proposed, the Congressional Budget Office projected that enrollment would reach 29 million by 2019 and that the percentage of uninsured adults would drop from 17 percent to 6 percent.

That didn’t happen. By 2019, enrollment had plateaued at around 11.4 million, and about 11 percent of adults remained uninsured.

A year later, Congress altered the program in 2020 to help Americans cope with the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 state of emergency.

The key change was the addition of “enhanced” tax credits that made middle-income households eligible for subsidized health care and allowed some low-income households to get coverage with a zero-dollar premium.

The enhanced credits were offered for two years, beginning in 2021, then extended through 2025.

Enrollment skyrocketed, doubling in five years.

But the cost was climbing rapidly, too.

Even before the enhanced tax credits came online, premiums had more than doubled since 2013, the year before Obamacare began. By 2025, the increase reached nearly 133 percent, about four times the rate of inflation.

Health care costs generally rose dramatically in that decade, partly because of rising wages, consolidation within the industry, an aging population, and the popularity of new and expensive medications, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Meanwhile, some analysts say Obamacare is the key driver of higher premiums.

An Obamacare sign is displayed outside an insurance agency in Miami on Nov. 12, 2025. Data show enrollment has surged since enhanced tax credits began in 2021, roughly doubling over five years. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Market Disruption

With traditional health insurance (and other forms of insurance), the price to the customer is based on the risk to the insurer and the type of coverage they choose.

Obamacare is different, however.

A key selling point of Obamacare was that it largely ended the practice of excluding people from health coverage due to preexisting conditions.

No one would be denied coverage due to illness, and all plans were required to offer the same set of minimum benefits.

As this one-size-fits-all system treats high- and low-risk customers the same, many younger, healthier people left the market, leading to higher premiums.

And because preexisting conditions are not a barrier to coverage, those consumers enter the market only when they become ill, raising costs even higher, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) told The Epoch Times.

Those increases spread across the industry because the Affordable Care Act requires insurers to offer Obamacare compliant policies to individuals and small groups in the commercial market.

The solution, Johnson said, is to cover those with existing illnesses in high-risk pools, which allow groups of people within Obamacare to be priced and subsidized separately.

“You have to reestablish those,” Johnson said. “You have to start by covering people with preexisting conditions.

“You bring as much free market back into health care as possible, so people are actually competing for customers with price, customer service, and quality.”

A Spiral Masked by Subsidies

Gross federal subsidies of Obamacare now stand at an estimated $138 billion per year, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Those subsidies have masked the rise in premiums, allowing them to rise virtually unchecked, according to Brian Blase, founder of think tank Paragon Health Institute.

“When enrollees pay only a small slice of the premium or no premium at all, insurers face almost no price discipline,” Blase told Senators on Nov. 19.

By 2024, 80 percent of Obamacare customers qualified for plans costing them no more than $10 per month, according to the Treasury Department.

That created a spiral that kept pushing the cost up, Blase said. “Higher premiums created pressure for still more subsidies. More subsidies lock in a high-cost system and permit large insurers and hospital systems to remain inefficient.”

That rising premiums also drove out general market consumers who did not qualify for a subsidy, causing even further increases, said Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

The Obamacare market was designed for a 50/50 mix of private-sector customers and those who need financial help, Oz said in a Nov. 16 interview with CNN.

“We have priced the systems now so heavily with government subsidies that it crowds out the private shopper,” Oz said.

Medicare and Medicaid Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz speaks at the White House on Nov. 6, 2025. Oz said rising insurance premiums pushed out consumers who did not qualify for subsidies, driving prices even higher. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

Perverse Incentives in the Workplace

Large employers, those with more than 50 employees, face a $2,900 fine for each full-time worker who receives an Obamacare subsidy. That’s to encourage companies to offer employer-sponsored health insurance.

In reality, it may have the opposite effect for employees earning below a certain level, according to Holtz-Eakin.

“You could do the math and figure out that … it made a lot of sense for employers to just stop being in the insurance business, put their workers in the exchanges, and both the worker and the employer could come out ahead,” Holtz-Eakin said.

That appears to have happened in many smaller companies, which have no threat of a fine to induce them to buy insurance for employees.

The year before Obamacare began, 85 percent of companies with 25 to 49 workers offered health insurance for their employees. By 2025, that had fallen to 64 percent.

American Action Forum President Douglas Holtz-Eakin speaks during a Senate Budget Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington on Feb. 25, 2021. Susan Walsh-Pool/Getty Images

Ripe for Fraud

When the enhanced tax credits were introduced in 2021, 42 percent of the uninsured population qualified for a policy with a zero-dollar premium. To boost and maintain enrollment during the health emergency, eligibility checks were relaxed, and reenrollment was automated.

Also, insurance brokers receive a commission for each person they enroll.

Those factors made the program ripe for fraud and abuse, Blase said.

“Many enrollees were signed up without their knowledge or consent,” Blase said. He noted that some unscrupulous vendors promised enrollees cash benefits, and others were moved from one plan to another without their consent.

Approximately 2.8 million people were dually enrolled in Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program in multiple states in 2024, or simultaneously enrolled in one of those programs and an Obamacare plan, according to federal data.

Also, 40 percent of those enrolled in a zero-premium plan in 2024, more than 4 million people, filed no medical claims.

The national average for zero-claim health insurance customers is 15 percent, according to Paragon Health Institute, which estimates that taxpayers spent $35 billion in 2024 to insure people who were unaware they had coverage.

A patient receives care at a health clinic in Asheville, N.C., on June 27, 2025. Critics say the Affordable Care Act’s one-size-fits-all rules led young, healthy people to pay more, prompting them to leave the market and driving premiums higher. Allison Joyce/AFP via Getty Images

Government Versus Market Solutions

While Democrats acknowledge that rising health care costs are a problem, they say it’s not related to Obamacare. Proposed solutions generally involve increasing corporate taxes and cracking down on corporate abuses.

“Insurance premiums are skyrocketing,” Rep. Jonathan Jackson (D-Ill.) told The Epoch Times on Nov. 20. He named government negotiations on drug prices and higher corporate taxes as partial solutions.

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said on Nov. 19 that reducing health care costs “means reining in insurance company abuses across the health care system.”

Republicans generally favor market-based reforms that give consumers more control over their health care spending.

“The free market guarantees three things,” Johnson said. “The lowest possible price and cost, the best possible quality, and the best level of customer service.”

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) arrives for a hearing in Washington on Jan. 15, 2025. Republicans, including Johnson, generally favor market-based reforms that give consumers more control over their health care spending. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

“The free market guarantees three things,” Johnson said. “The lowest possible price and cost, the best possible quality, and the best level of customer service.”

Trump has proposed a direct cash payment to low- and middle-income Americans to be used for health care expenses. Cassidy and Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) have proposed similar ideas.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) named direct primary care, health sharing ministries, and expanded Health Savings Accounts as ways to empower patients to make their own health decisions.

“I want to free up individuals to have better options,” Roy told The Epoch Times. “If you’re starting there, then you’re going to be transformative, and that will drive prices down,” Roy said.

Congress is expected to vote in mid-December on an extension of enhanced subsidies and possibly other health care reforms.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 08:45

Futures Rise As Bullish Sentiment Returns After Rollercoaster Week

US equity futures are higher, but off their overnight highs, as the market looks to rebound from its worst week since early Oct; sentiment was lifted after shares of Alibaba jumped 4.7% in Hong Kong after a strong debut for its AI app; also boosting futs was a spike in December rate cut hopes and bullish comments from Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson. Still, after a bruising week, and with key macro data delayed until after the December FOMC, bulls are tentative as the S&P is -3.5% MTD, its worst monthly performance since March. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.6%, but moving fast in an extremely illiquid environment. Pre-mkt, Mag7 names are higher led a 3% gain for Alphabet. Semis are boosted by AVGO / NVDA up 24 and 40bp. Cyclicals, ex-Materials, are higher and outperforming Defensives. Novo Nordisk slumped 10% in Copenhagen after studies showed an Ozempic pill failed to slow Alzheimer’s progression. Bond yields are lower by 1-3bp as the yield curve bull flattens and the USD trades lower. Bitcoin began the week on the back foot - with a slam shortly after the European open killing hopes for a modest rally - following a prolonged selloff that has put the token on track for its worst month since 2022. Crude is trading near session highs, reversing an earlier slide, following the biggest weekly loss since early October, as traders watch US-Ukraine talks for signs on whether a Russia peace deal could increase crude flows. Trump floats a 2-yr ACA extension with increased restrictions on qualifying for the program with additional details expected this week. More Sept macro data will be released this week with the market most likely to care about Retail Sales into Black Friday / Cyber Monday.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are all higher (Alphabet +3.4%, Tesla +1.8%, Amazon +0.5%, Meta Platforms +0.8%, Microsoft +0.4%, Nvidia +0.6%, Apple is flat)

• Alibaba ADRs (BABA) gain 3.9% after the company said its re-branded Qwen AI tool hit 10 million downloads in the first week after it became available to the public.
• Biogen Inc. (BIIB), a drugmaker with an Alzheimer’s treatment on the market, rises 4% after Novo Nordisk said a pill version of Ozempic failed to slow the progression of Alzheimer’s disease.
• Bristol Myers (BMY) climbs 3.8% after peer developer, Bayer AG, said an experimental stroke-prevention drug showed positive results in a late-stage study. Analysts see positive readthrough to Bristol’s drug, milvexian, with Cantor calling the data a “needed win” for the space.
• Green Dot (GDOT) jumps 17% after entering into agreements to be acquired by Smith Ventures and CommerceOne Financial Corporation in a deal that will split the company’s operations between the two buyers.
• MP Materials shares (MP) are up 2.7% after BMO upgraded its recommendation to outperform, saying the stock’s recent pullback offers a buying opportunity into the long-term theme of the US shoring up its rare-earth supply chain.
• Performance Food Group (PFGC) falls 2% after US Foods says it’s no longer pursuing a combination with the company.
• Primoris Services Corp. (PRIM) slips 1.3% after the construction and engineering services company was initiated at Goldman Sachs with a recommendation of sell.
• WeRide Inc. ADRs (WRD) gain 9% after it narrowed its third-quarter net loss on increased robotaxi orders, as it races for a slice of the growing global market for driverless cabs.

In corporate news, Revolut garnered a $75 billion valuation in its latest share sale, a steep increase from the $45 billion price tag it received last year. US officials are said to be having early discussions on whether to let Nvidia sell its H200 artificial intelligence chips to China. Trump said that no television networks should be able to expand, citing the potential growth of what he considers left-wing news outlets.

Futures gained to start the week as the AI narrative was boosted by strong demand for Alibaba’s relaunched AI app, while comments from NY Fed’s Williams on Friday led investors to boost the odds of a rate cut next month to around 70%. Morgan Stanley’s Wilson reckons the recent stock-market pullback is coming to an end and sees a buying opportunity into 2026.

Still, few expect smooth sailing, and as reported overnight, traders are scrambling for downside protection and paying up to lock in S&P 500 gains, especially when it comes to tech. The cost of options on the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF is hovering near its highest level since August 2024 versus that for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. 

“There’s still a positive backdrop for the tech sector,” said Kevin Thozet, member of Carmignac Gestion’s investment committee. “Typically, seasonality is pretty good walking into Thanksgiving and the end of the year. So I’m rather risk-on from now on and into the first-quarter of 2026.”

In hedge fund news, Ray Dalio thinks the ‘pod shop’ hedge fund multi-strat model won’t last. Bill Ackman is said to be revving up a long-anticipated plan to hold an IPO for his Pershing Square Capital Management, the FT reported. 

European stocks edged higher on Monday, the Stoxx 600 rising 0.2% to 563.34, after their worst weekly drop since early August.Construction and travel shares outperformed, while insurers lagged. Defense stocks also underperform in Europe, although have been offset by gains in construction, auto and travel names. Rheinmetall led a drop in defense stocks after Ukraine signaled progress in reconciling its position with the US on a potential peace deal with Russia. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• Ubisoft shares surge as much as 15%, the most since December, after the French video game producer announced that it had finalized a deal for Tencent to inject €1.16 billion into its Vantage Studios unit.
• Bayer shares jump as much as 12%, to the highest level since October 2024, after the German company said an experimental stroke-prevention drug called asundexian showed positive results in a late-stage clinical study.
• Vistry shares gain as much as 6.5%, the most since June, after Goldman Sachs initiated the UK homebuilder with a buy recommendation.
• Nemetschek shares climb as much as 4.6%, the most since May, as Jefferies started coverage of the German software firm with a buy rating.
• BMW shares gain as much as 2.7% after after Goldman Sachs initiated the automaker with a buy recommendation. Ferrari and Mercedes shares also gained after being rated new buys.
• Julius Baer shares drop as much as 5.9%, the most since May, after the Swiss lender said 2025 profit would be lower than last year.
• Rheinmetall shares fall as much 5.8%, hitting their lowest level since April, as European defense stocks drop on signs of progress in talks to secure Ukraine’s support for a US-backed peace plan. Leonardo, Thales and Saab also fell.
• M&C Saatchi shares drop as much as 18%, hitting their lowest level since 2021, after warning the US government shutdown has affected trading, prompting the advertising agency to cut its outlook.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities opened the week higher on optimism over a potential Federal Reserve rate cut and a rebound in AI-linked Chinese tech shares traded in Hong Kong. The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index climbed as much as 1.2%, with Alibaba being the biggest contributor to its gain. The company’s shares led a rally in peers after saying its rebranded AI app Qwen hit 10 million downloads in the week after it became available to the public. The Hang Seng Tech Index jumped more than 3% intraday after a four-week losing run. Tencent and Samsung Electronics were other major contributors to the regional index’s advance. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and Australia rose, while Japan was closed for a holiday. Asian markets have been volatile in recent weeks amid uncertainty over the Fed’s easing as well as doubts over the potential for returns from the AI sector that has been attracting vast sums of money.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is steady. The euro and Swiss franc vie for top spot among the G-10 currencies, rising 0.2% each.

Treasuries inch higher, with US 10-year yields down 1 bp at 4.05%. European government bonds also edge up. In early US trading long-end tenors outperform, slightly flattening 2s10s and 5s30s curves ahead of the 2-year note auction at 1pm New York time. Auction cycle begins a day earlier than usual ahead of Thursday’s US Thanksgiving Day holiday. European bonds trade steady, including Italian debt after the country’s upgrade by Moody’s Ratings on Friday. Long-end yields are richer by 2bp-3bp with front-end tenors little changed, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads about 2bp; 10-year near session low 4.05% is about 1.7bp lower, outperforming bunds and gilts.  $69 billion 2-year note auction has WI yield near 3.50%, within 1bp of last month’s, which tailed by 0.1bp; auction cycle also includes $70 billion 5-year Tuesday and $44 billion 7-year Wednesday

In commodities, WTI crude futures slip 0.7% to $57.70 a barrel as traders weigh the prospect of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal after President Zelenskiy’s chief of staff said discussions demonstrated significant progress in reconciling positions. European natural gas futures drop 3% and below €30 a megawatt-hour for the first time in more than a year.  Bitcoin again fell below $86,000 after a weekend rebound and is on track for its worst month since 2022. 

The US economic calendar includes November Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (12pm); Fed speaker slate is blank

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX +0.4%
• CAC 40 -0.1%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.05%
• VIX +0.2 points at 23.58
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1226.52
• euro +0.2% at $1.1537
• WTI crude -0.6% at $57.73/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump is expected to announce as early as Monday a general framework to address healthcare costs, proposed legislation would eliminate zero premium subsidies currently offered under the ACA, according to MS NOW. It was later reported that US President Trump is to sign an executive order on Monday at 4:00pm EST. 
• Bessent said they are seeing prices get better and will see an announcement this week on healthcare costs, while he added that inflation is up because of services, not imported goods. Bessent said he expects some prices to come down in weeks and others in months. Furthermore, he said that Republicans should end the filibuster if Democrats close the government again, while he noted the government shutdown caused a $11BN permanent hit to US GDP.
• Trump's DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) has disbanded with eight months left to its mandate.
• Texas officials asked the US Supreme Court to allow a pro-Republican electoral map that a lower court blocked.
• JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citi (C) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are among those that have been notified by SitusAMC that their client data may have been taken: NYT.
• Japan reaffirmed plans to deploy missiles on an island near Taiwan as tensions smolder with China. BBG
• China unveiled details of a global mining initiative with 19 nations in an apparent response to US efforts to rally allies for an alternative rare earth supply chain. BBG
• Early signs on Japan's annual wage negotiations for next year point to another round of solid pay hikes despite profit pressure from U.S. tariffs, bolstering the case for the BoJ to raise interest rates further. RTRS
• German business confidence unexpectedly dipped this month, Ifo’s expectations index showed. Expectations component coming in at 90.6 for Nov, down from 91.6 in Oct and below the consensus forecast of 91.6. BBG
• US and Ukraine officials say they made progress in peace talks over the weekend, although neither side provide much detail on how the blueprint had evolved from last week’s initial draft. NYT
• Scott Bessent told NBC’s Meet the Press that the Trump administration is working on bringing down US health-care costs and an announcement is planned for this week. BBG
• The Trump administration is working on fallback options in case the Supreme Court strikes down one of his major tariff authorities, looking to replace the levies as quickly as possible. They are studying alternatives, including Section 301 and Section 122 of the Trade Act, which grant the president unilateral ability to impose duties, but these replacements come with risks and could face their own legal challenges. BBG
• President Trump said this week he expects much lower interest rates once he can install a new Federal Reserve chair next May. Growing opposition to a December rate cut inside the central bank suggests he might not get his way. WSJ
• The bond market is straining to absorb a flood of new bonds from tech companies funding their artificial intelligence investments, adding to the recent pressure in markets. Since the start of September, so-called AI hyperscalers Amazon, Google, Meta, and Oracle have issued nearly $90 billion of investment-grade bonds, according to Dealogic, more than they had sold over the previous 40 months. WSJ
• Hedge funds and mutual funds both currently favor Health Care and Industrials. Hedge funds increased their net tilt to Health Care last quarter by 260 bp, the largest increase among sectors. Goldman

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly positive following last Friday's advances on Wall St, where sentiment was lifted as dovish comments from Fed's Williams rekindled December rate cut hopes, while 'tremendous' progress was said to have been made during Ukraine peace talks in Geneva on Sunday, although conditions were quiet amid a sparse overnight calendar and with Japanese markets closed for Labor Day. ASX 200 rallied at the open with outperformance in tech and industrials front running the advances, while there were also some M&A related headlines with Qube surging to a record high on Macquarie Asset Management's fresh AUD 11.6bln takeover proposal. Conversely, BHP shares were indecisive and eventually trickled lower after it was reported to have made a renewed approach for Anglo American, which was rejected, prompting BHP to abandon its pursuit again. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp Chinese markets are mixed with gains led by tech strength, although semiconductor names are pressured, including SMIC, following a report on Friday that US President Trump’s team was internally floating selling NVIDIA H200 chips to China.

Top Asian News

• BoJ board member Masu said on Friday that the BoJ is 'close' to the decision to raise rates but can't say which month. Masu stated it is not good for real interest rates to be deeply negative and that Japan's policy rate is lower than the neutral rate, which he strongly believes they need to change quickly, while he said they won't wait until after the Spring wage talks to end in raising rates.
• Japan is said to be open to intervening in the currency market “to mitigate the side effects of a weak yen,” according to a government panel member.
• New Zealand PM Luxon vowed to increase the pension saving scheme, according to Bloomberg.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) opened stronger across the board, following on from a mostly firmer APAC session and as markets digested the latest geopolitical progress between Ukraine and Russia, whereby US Sec of State Rubio suggested "tremendous progress" has been made. However, as the morning progressed, a hefty bout of pressure took indices to session lows to now display a mixed picture in Europe - a move which lacked catalysts. European sectors opened with a clear cyclical bias. Autos, Travel & Leisure and Basic Resources lead whilst Energy underperforms as the oil complex remains pressure amidst the constructive geopolitical environment; a factor which has led to downside across Defence names, with the likes of Rheinmetall (-2%) on the backfoot.

Top European News

• Smooth End to the Year Now Looks Far Less Likely
• BHP Walks Away From Anglo; Portugal’s TAP
• Europe’s IPO Bankers See a Revival Next Year, for Real This Time

FX

• DXY is a little lower today and trades within a thin 100.08 to 100.29 range. Newsflow has been relatively quiet for the index this morning, but may pick-up later this week as Fed speak and the Fed's Beige Book will give further insight on the health of the economy.
• EUR/USD has picked up a touch since the European cash open, and has recently made a peak of 1.1540 vs the session low of 1.1503. No clear catalyst for the move itself, but potentially as markets digest the latest bout of geopolitical updates between Russia and Ukraine. Elsewhere, no move after a subdued German Ifo set, which saw Expectations slip below the lower end of analyst expectations.
• Muted price action also in GBP/USD, currently within a narrow 1.3086-1.3111 range. Price action this morning has been sideways, with newsflow light and as traders count down their clocks to Wednesday's UK Budget. Sky News recently outlined that the UK's OBR will reportedly say that growth is lower in 2026 and every Parliament year in the Budget. Pertinently, the Treasury hopes to surprise with bigger than expected headroom, an outcome that would be welcome by markets; as a reminder, consensus is in a broad GBP 10-20bln+ range for headroom, vs the GBP 9.9bln Reeves had last time.
• JPY is the underperformer today, likely thanks to the broader risk-tone, but with Japanese participants also away on holiday. Currently towards the upper end of a 156.43 to 156.93 range. Weekend newsflow has been light aside from commentary via Japanese government panel member, who suggested that PM Takaichi is open to JPY intervention. A report which has seemingly been shrugged off by markets, as the JPY continues to weaken.
• Antipodeans are mildly lower vs the Dollar, with no real catalysts driving things for the moment; focus remains on the RBNZ announcement on Wednesday, where a 25bps cut is widely expected.
• Barclays FX month-end rebalancing: strong USD buying against all majors.

Fixed Income

• Bond price action is lacklustre this morning. Overnight action was subdued as Japanese participants were away for holiday, and the European morning has lacked material newsflow to shift sentiment.
• USTs are trading rangebound in a tight 113-05+ to 113-09 range. Trade updates this morning have been non-incremental, with some focus on a Bloomberg piece suggesting that the White House is preparing a tariff fallback ahead of the court ruling. The rest of the day is fairly light, aside from some Tier 2 US data - more focus will be on the coming days, where markets will get more Fed speak, Retail Sales, Weekly Claims and the Beige Book.
• Bunds are firmer by a handful of ticks, but ultimately following the above and trades within a 128.81 to 129.00 range. This morning German paper saw a slight pick-up and attempted (but failed) to lift above the 129.00 mark, alongside pressure in WTI and Brent (spurred on by geopol progress). Thereafter, some sideways trade before then catching another slight bid, as the European risk tone slipped off best levels. Elsewhere, no move to a subdued German Ifo survey, which saw New Expectations slip below the most pessimistic of analyst expectations.
• Gilts opened higher by three ticks and now flat, echoing the bias in core peers. A lot of final weekend press reporting around the budget, the main developments focused on pensions. Earlier, Sky News reported that the OBR is set to lower the growth view for every parliamentary year, Chancellor Reeves reportedly to argue this is not due to the government (reminder, Reeves recently identified Brexit as the structural factor behind the challenging UK environment). Furthermore, the Treasury is said to be looking to surprise with bigger than expected headroom, an outcome that would be welcome by markets; as a reminder, consensus is in a broad GBP 10-20bln+ range for headroom, vs the GBP 9.9bln Reeves had last time.
• BTPs are firmer by 22 ticks at most, notching a 121.05 peak. Following Moody's upgrading Italy to Baa3 (prev. Baa2), Outlook Stable (prev. Positive) on Friday.
• OATs are firmer, but only modestly so, awaiting fiscal updates. On Friday, the Revenue section of the budget bill failed in the National Assembly. As such, the text now goes to the Senate and Parliament has until the 23rd of December to deliberate it. Now, attention turns to the Social Security Financing Bill, a joint committee set to rule on it on Wednesday before it then (if it passes) goes to the National Assembly and then Senate for approval. Politico sources report a "one in three chance" that the joint committee would approve it. Unsurprisingly, pension reform is the sticking point.
• German Finance Agency's Diemer says 2026 issuance is likely to exceed EUR 500bln, via Econostream. Adds: Same issuance structure in 2026 but with higher volumes. Higher term premia will be considered in determining the 2026 maturity profile. Confident that no mid-year revisions to issuance plans will be necessary. Will continue to use syndications in 2026 but will focus on longer maturities. Says that they see only very isolated structural demand for ultra long bonds, will not launch a strategic market presence there for the foreseeable future. Issuance in foreign currencies is not currently planned.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent were initially rangebound, but saw negative downticks at the start of the European sessions, and then extended on that pressure taking the complex down to fresh session lows. Brent Feb'26 made a trough of US 61.34/bbl vs peak of USD 62.18/bbl. Downside today has been facilitated by the positive mood music via US Secretary of State Rubio, who suggested a meeting with Ukrainian officials had led to "tremendous progress".
• Dutch TTF Dec'25 has taken a hit following the talks in Geneva, trading below EUR 30/MWh for the first time since May 2024. After opening at EUR 30.06/MWh, Dutch TTF has faltered and remains near session lows at EUR 29.20/MWh.
• Spot XAU fell to a trough of USD 4040/oz at the start of the APAC session following the positive risk tone from the Geneva talks. However, XAU has turned around and is currently trading just shy of session highs at USD 4078/oz, benefitting in part from the risk tone souring a touch after the European open. Note, XAU in a thin sub-40/oz band.
• 3M LME Copper oscillated in a tight USD 10.77k-10.81k/t band to start the European session but briefly dipped to a trough of USD 10.75k/t as global equities pulled back from best, despite a lack of specific newsflow.
• A majority Chinese-owned plant at Indonesia’s most important nickel site is cutting back production due to its tailing site being nearly full, according to Bloomberg citing sources

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel’s military said it killed a Hamas commander in Gaza City, while the Israeli military confirmed that Hezbollah military leader Ali Tabtabai was killed in an Israeli strike in southern Beirut.
• Canadian PM Carney and German Chancellor Merz discussed the situation in the Middle East and noted their support for the comprehensive peace plan to end the war in Gaza, while they reaffirmed support for Ukraine and underscored that any settlement must include Ukraine’s involvement.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said they are grateful for all efforts by US President Trump and the US to end the war. Zelensky said they also thank Europe, the G7 and the G20 for helping them protect lives, while they are working on every point and every step to achieve peace. Zelensky also commented that there are signals that the US team is hearing them.
• US President Trump said ‘no’ when asked if his offer is the final one for Ukraine. Trump separately commented that the Ukrainian leadership has expressed zero gratitude for our efforts and that Europe continues to buy oil from Russia.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said we’ve had the most productive and meaningful meeting so far and made good progress. Rubio said there is still some work left to do, and their teams will revert on Sunday night with more updates, while Rubio added this will have to be signed off by their presidents, but he is comfortable about that. Rubio later commented that they made a tremendous amount of progress and have a foundational document, while they were able to narrow down the points of the plan, but added that work remains to be done. Furthermore, he said they are much further ahead than when they began on Sunday morning and noted there are some outstanding issues involving the role of the EU and NATO, but stated that none of the outstanding issues are insurmountable.
• US official said that talks between US and Ukrainian officials so far have been productive and even conclusive in some areas, while it was also reported that US and Ukrainian officials were discussing a possible trip by Ukrainian President Zelensky to Washington to discuss the peace plan, possibly this week, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• European leaders’ summit on Ukraine stated that they believe the US 28-point peace plan required additional work and they are concerned by proposed limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces, while they are clear on the principle that Ukraine’s borders must not be changed by force.
• European counterproposal to the US’s Ukraine peace plan proposes that the Ukrainian military be capped at 800,000 in peacetime and stated that Ukraine joining NATO depends on the consensus of NATO members, which does not exist, while NATO agrees not to permanently station troops under its command in Ukraine in peacetime. The counterproposal also stated that NATO jets will be stationed in Poland and Ukraine will receive a US guarantee that mirrors NATO’s Article 5, as well as noted that Ukraine will be compensated financially, including through Russian sovereign assets that will remain frozen until Russia compensates for damage to Ukraine. Furthermore, Ukraine commits not to recover its occupied sovereign territory through military means, while negotiations on territorial swaps will start from the line of contact, and Ukraine will hold elections as soon as possible after the signing of the peace agreement.
• White House readout stated there was an extensive and productive meeting with the Ukrainian delegation, while it added that the Ukrainian delegation affirmed all of their principal concerns and believes the current draft reflects their national interests. Furthermore, it stated Ukrainians underscored that the strengthened security guarantee architecture meaningfully addresses their core strategic requirements and they agreed to continue consultations as the agreements move toward final refinement.
• Nordic-Baltic Eight Leaders’ joint statement noted that they spoke with Ukrainian President Zelensky and stated that Russia has so far not committed to a ceasefire or any steps leading to peace, while they will continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen Europe’s defence to deter further Russian aggression.
• Russia’s Ryabkov said regarding chances of another Trump-Putin meeting that the issue is on the agenda and nothing can be ruled out, while he added that progress in building dialogue between Russia and the US is impressive and that contacts are yielding results.
• Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces took control of Petrivske in Ukraine’s Donetsk and took control of the Tikhe and Odradne regions in eastern Ukraine, according to TASS. It was also reported that Russian forces captured Nove Zaporizhzhia and Zvanivka in eastern Ukraine, according to RIA.
• Ukrainian drones struck a heat and electricity station in Moscow region’s Shatura, which caused a fire.
• Ukraine's Parliamentary speaker announces a series of Ukraine's red lines in negotiations in regards to the peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
• Russia's Kremlin says no official information has been received from the Geneva talks and no meeting has been planned between Russia and the US this week.

Geopolitics: Other

• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang said China urges Japan to reflect on and correct mistakes as soon as possible and not become obsessed, while he added that Japan’s leader sent a wrong signal of trying to intervene in the Taiwan issue by force and crossed the red line that should not be touched. Wang also said that if Japan continues down this path, countries have the right to re-examine Japan’s historical crimes. It was separately reported that a senior Japanese government spokeswoman said China’s claim that Japan has altered its position is entirely baseless, while Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi said during a visit to the island of Yonaguni in Okinawa that Japan is on track to deploy missiles to the island, which is near Taiwan.
• US is poised to start a new phase of Venezuela-related operations and is weighing options, including to overthrow Venezuela’s government, while covert operations are expected to come first, according to officials cited by Reuters.- Armed bandits kidnapped more than 300 students from a Catholic school in Nigeria on Friday, while it was reported on Sunday that fifty of the kidnapped students have escaped.
• White House said South Africa is refusing to facilitate a smooth transition of the G20 presidency and has weaponised its G20 presidency to undermine the G20’s founding principles.

US Event Calendar

12:00pm ET: November Dallas Fed manufacturing activity 

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It should be another busy, but holiday shortened, week after a volatile one last week as markets whipsawed around big moves in Fed pricing and AI bubble risk fears. The highlight for me is that at the end of the week I’ll be allowed to putt for a maximum of 10 minutes a day, 6 weeks after back fusion surgery. That’ll still be another 4.5 months minimum from then before I can swing a club in anger though! My wife has been despairing at me as I’ve been looking at industrial torches on Amazon that will allow me to putt at my local golf course in the evening. I’ve found one that is the nearest thing to a portable lighthouse that will give me 100 yards or so when I’m allowed to chip and pitch. Black Friday is coming at the right time.

Before we get to Thanksgiving, in the US, delayed post-shutdown data will be compressed into the first three days because of the holiday. Tomorrow brings September’s retail sales and PPI, followed on Wednesday by jobless claims and durable goods orders. The claims data will be particularly important as they cover the November survey week, and the Federal Reserve is expected to lean heavily on these figures and other alternative indicators ahead of its December meeting, given there’ll be no more payroll data prior to the FOMC.

Globally, attention will turn to inflation reports from Europe and Japan, as well as the long-awaited UK Budget, which could prove pivotal for the country’s fragile fiscal outlook. Perhaps the most significant geopolitical development will be Ukraine’s response to the US ultimatum to accept the 28-point peace plan agreed with Russia, with an ultimatum set for before Thanksgiving on Thursday, although the US seem to have indicated over the weekend that there is some room for negotiation (more below).

Let's start with the US, and for tomorrow's September PPI data, benign prints are expected by our economists for headline (+0.2% vs -0.1% last) and core (+0.2% vs -0.1%), echoing recent CPI trends. Categories feeding into core PCE will be in focus, with forecasts pointing to a 0.26% monthly gain, keeping the annual rate near 2.9%. This will be the last inflation update before the Fed’s December decision, as October CPI and November CPI have been pushed back to mid-December.

Retail sales are forecast by our economists to show modest gains after strong summer spending: headline +0.1% (vs +0.6% last), ex-auto +0.2% (vs +0.7%), while retail control may dip slightly (-0.1% vs +0.7%). Even so, Q3 retail control growth is tracking at 6.8% annualised —the strongest since early 2023—supporting expectations for robust goods spending once GDP data is published. Factory sector updates arrive Wednesday with durable goods orders for September and the Chicago PMI for November (45.0 vs 43.8). Headline orders are expected to fall (-2.4% vs +2.9%), but ex-transportation (+0.2% vs +0.4%) and core orders (+0.2% vs +0.6%) should post moderate gains, implying a solid 5.3% annualised increase for Q3. Don’t forget Black Friday where we will start to see early evidence of how strong consumer spending is into the important Christmas period. No Fed speakers are scheduled at this stage. The blackout period begins on Saturday ahead of the December meeting but with Thanksgiving on Thursday, it will start a lot earlier than it normally would.  

European data highlights include preliminary November CPI prints for Germany (2.6% YoY expected), France (0.92%) and Italy (1.23%) on Friday, alongside Q3 GDP releases for Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. Germany’s Ifo survey kicks off the week today, followed by consumer confidence on Thursday and retail sales Friday. France will also report confidence and spending data that day. In the UK, the Autumn Budget on Wednesday will be the main event. Expectations point to roughly £35bn in fiscal consolidation, marking a second historic tax-raising budget under Chancellor Reeves. See our economist Sanjay Raja’s preview here in what is one of the most hotly anticipated UK budgets in recent memory. Sanjay may need a lie down in a dark room after Wednesday as it’s fair to say he’s been in high demand of late.  

From central banks, the ECB will publish its October meeting account on Thursday and its consumer expectations survey Friday. In New Zealand, the RBNZ meets Wednesday, with a 25bps rate cut anticipated. Elsewhere, Australia reports October CPI (Wednesday), Canada releases Q3 GDP, and China publishes October industrial profits. Japan’s focus will be on November Tokyo CPI and October activity data (Friday). With Q3 earnings season winding down, results from Alibaba, Meituan, Analog Devices, Dell and HP will draw attention.

In terms of weekend developments, the news flow has escalated very quickly with regards to the war in Ukraine. After news broke on Thursday of a 28 point peace plan that was aligned following meetings between US envoy Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, politicians and diplomats have been scrambling after being caught off guard. Trump appeared to give Kyiv a deadline of Thanksgiving (this Thursday) to accept the proposals, though later said that it was “not my final offer”. Last night we heard positive comments from Secretary of State Marco Rubio after talks with Ukrainian officials in Geneva, with the sides drafting “an updated and refined peace framework” and agreeing “to continue intensive work” in the coming days. Meanwhile, European leaders met on the sidelines of the G20 conference in South Africa, with outlets including Reuters reporting a European counter-proposal that pushes back on elements of the US draft such as territorial concessions. So, plenty of diplomatic moving parts to watch in the next few days.

The mood in Asia continues to improve after a bounce on Friday as Fed cut expectations spiked higher. The Hang Seng (+1.95%) is leading gains, buoyed by strength in technology shares, while the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.25%) is also experiencing a significant increase. The KOSPI (+0.19%) has given up most of its initial gains after having traded +1.56% higher at the outset. Elsewhere, Chinese shares are largely flat. S&P 500 (+0.53%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+0.75%) futures are continuing Friday's momentum while Japanese markets are closed for a holiday, meaning that US Treasuries haven't traded yet. European stock futures are around three quarters of a percent higher.

Recapping last week now and markets saw high volatility and weakness, driven especially by concerns about AI valuations, but initially selling-off on fears the Fed wouldn’t have enough data to cut in December. Ironically, that sell-off promoted an increase in the probability of a cut in just over two weeks. The S&P 500 declined -1.95% despite a +0.98% rally on Friday and the NASDAQ was down -2.74% (+0.88% Friday). The AI weakness also pushed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -5.94% lower (+0.86% Friday). Nvidia saw huge swings, down -5.94% even as it revealed strong earnings and revenue guidance in its earnings on Wednesday night. It fell -0.97% on Friday despite a brief rally on news that the Trump administration was considering allowing it to sell H200 chips to China. Alphabet was the main exception from the tech weakness, rallying +8.41% (+3.53% Friday) following news that Berkshire Hathaway took a stake in the company and on positive reviews of its new Gemini-3 AI model. The meant Alphabet overtook Microsoft (-7.46% on the week) as the world’s third most valuable company. Amazon was down -5.97% (+1.63% Friday) in a week they issued a $15bn bond, the first in three years. So, lots of volatility within the Mag-7 (-1.94% on the week; +0.81% Friday). Oracle’s equity fell -5.66% on Friday in a rallying market, while its 5yr CDS widened +11bps to 119bps. The VIX index saw its highest weekly close since late April at 23.43 despite a -2.99pt decline on Friday (+3.60pts on the week).  

Given the turmoil in equities, investors are now pricing a stronger chance of Fed rate cuts, with a December cut 63% priced, having been at 43% the week before. Rate cut pricing ticked up on Friday after NY Fed President Williams said he saw room for another cut “in the near term”. Earlier in the week, the probability went as low as 27%, following the BLS announcement that there wouldn't be an October payrolls report, and that the November report would be delayed to December 16, after the FOMC decision. Treasuries rallied amid the risk-off mood, with the 2yr yield falling -9.8bps to 3.51% (-2.4bps Friday) and the 10yr yield down -8.4bps to 4.06% (-2.0bps Friday). In credit, US IG spreads widened +3bps, with the HY spreads +10bps higher as well.   

Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-2.21%) saw its biggest decline in 16 weeks, including a -0.33% fall on Friday following a softer euro area manufacturing PMI print (49.7 vs 50.1 expected). The DAX (-3.29% on the week, -0.80% Friday) led this decline, while the FTSE 100 (-1.64% on the week, +0.13% Friday) saw a relative outperformance despite the November composite PMI falling to 50.5 (vs. 51.8 expected), driven by a downside surprise in services. European yields were mostly lower, with the 10yr bunds down -1.7bps and BTPs down -1.4bps, while OATs were up +1.4bps. Gilt yields were also -2.8bps lower with investors waiting for the Autumn budget later this week. European credit spreads (+2bps for IG, +9bps for HY) saw similar moves as in the US. 

The negative mood was also affected by a sell-off in cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin falling -10.37% to its lowest level since late April. The market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies now stands at just under $3trn, down from a high of $4.4trn in October. Meanwhile, oil prices fell as traders dialled down the risks to Russian oil supply following news of the 28-point peace plan proposed by the US. Brent crude finished the week -2.84% lower to $62.56/bbl (-1.29% Friday).

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 08:37

 

 

One of the biggest challenges for investors is recognizing exactly how little we know about what the future holds. It is a rare moment in market history when what comes next is extremely obvious to most investors.

A few examples – and feel free to push back on these – include the post-1987 crash, the peak Dotcom/Tech bubble in Q1 2000, the subprime mortgage boom and bust that led into the Great Financial Crisis, and the March 2009 lows.

Those examples may appear obvious in hindsight. Recall how few people bought in circa March and April 2009; by October, the move off the GFC lows was being called “The Most Hated Rally” in stock market history. Fast forward three years to 2012, and strategists were the most bearish they had been on equities since 1985.

Too many people fail to recognize how challenging it is to identify these generational market turning points in real time. This is important when groups of people declare future outcomes with both abundant confidence and a lack of humility.

Recall the now-infamous Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s December 5, 1996 Irrational Exuberance speech. The market moved modestly upwards for another two years before exploding higher in late September 1998 (LTCM bailout), and then again in October 1999 (Pre-Y2K Fed liquidity injection).

 

With the benefit of hindsight, that now seems More like “Rational” than “Irrational” exuberance. The S&P500 gained 88.6%, but the more speculative Tech and Dotcom sector, represented by the Nasdaq 100, gained an astonishing 454.5%.

Perhaps we are in the late stages of an AI-driven bubble; we could just as easily be in a once-in-a-generation transformational technology boom that will drive both the economy and the stock market in positive directions for years to come.

As my colleague Ben Carlson asked, “Is this 1996 or 1999?” I floated a broader question last month:

When was the last time the crowd, the media, or Wall Street accurately identified a bubble in real time?

By definition, it takes a crowd to drive prices to bubblicious levels. It is a challenge for the crowd to simultaneously speculate on a bubble and accurately identify one as it inflates.

See the Goldman Sachs’ chart of Forward P/E ratios by theme (at top). Some sectors are extremely overpriced—new IPOs and Meme stocks are trading at ridiculous forward earnings, mainly because they have very little or no earnings. The S&P 493—S&P 500 minus the Magnificent 7— however, is not in bubble territory at 20.7 P/E. Pricey, yes, but not bubblicious.

Given the profit growth over the past few years (and expectations of lower interest rates), can investors rationally believe that prices are not entirely irrational?

Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity observes “Meme stocks have lost some 60 P/E points, while the big players (Mag 7) trade at a [more] reasonable 32.6x and the S&P 493 at 20.7x. For the large caps these are not bubble valuations.”

That is where we are today: A 15-year rally that was initially built on a market that was cut in half (2007-09), followed by a post-crash recovery that was helped along by zero-interest rate policy, leading into the pandemic, which itself was helped along by the single largest fiscal stimulus as a percentage of GDP since World War II. Today, we see AI driving a market that continues to post record earnings. There is enough rationality that a run-of-the-mill 5% pullback sends the VIX up to 25, with genuine fear amongst traders and policymakers.

The key question investors face is this:

Is Artificial Intelligence more like the internet on the economy, where it continues to boost economic activity and efficiencies long after its introduction? Or are we in a period of malinvestment and reckless speculation that leads to a bubble and a market crash? Both?

You can cherry-pick charts that show a bubble or not.

Consider this chart (via the Washington Post) of Nvidia’s revenues. $57 billion per quarter in revenue is nothing like what we saw among the DotComs in the late 1990s; note the Magnificent 7 collectively pull in more than $2 trillion annually in revenues.

 

But the next chart is the one that I found especially compelling: Will investments in AI payoff to the tune of $650 billion in revenues above current levels by 2030?

 

If you suspect you know the answer to that, you know how to deploy your capital. If you are confident you know the answer, the odds suggest you may be overplaying your hand.

 

 

 

Previously:
The Most Hated Rally in Wall Street History (October 8, 2009)

Understanding Investing Regime Change (October 25, 2023)

A Short History of Bubbles (October 24, 2025)

The Magnificent 493 (August 12, 2025)

All Time Highs Are Bullish (June 26, 2025)

The Stock Market Remains Undefeated (May 19, 2025)

RealTime Bubble Checklist (October 16, 2025)

 

The post Rational Exuberance? appeared first on The Big Picture.

The post Ezra Klein Needs to Look More Closely at His Housing Chart appeared first on CEPR.

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 15.5% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 16.3%), and down 4.7% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 5.3%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed most of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of November 21st, inventory was at 830 thousand (7-day average), compared to 840 thousand the prior week.  
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

• World-Beating Stock Rally Creates New Headaches in Korean Market:.South Korean stocks are on track to post their strongest gains in a quarter century, with the Kospi up 61% so far in 2025. The rally has stirred doubts about its staying power due to growing anxiety over heated AI valuations. Some investors already pulling back due to concerns over the market’s sustainability. (Bloomberg)

• Berkshire Without Buffett: What’s Next for the Company and the Stock: As the legendary investor prepares to step down as CEO, here’s what his designated successor, Greg Abel, should do to bring Berkshire into the 21st century. (Barron’s)

• What I Meant When I Said Substack Isn’t Cool: The platform owns the newsletter space so completely its name is a synonym for the form, writes Chris Black, but it’s still just another algorithm. (GQ)

• The Risks Lurking in Wall Street’s Insurance Takeover: The retirement accounts and life insurance policies of the average American fueled massive private equity returns. Experts say the systemic risks are too big to ignore. (Bloomberg)

• The Good News and Bad News About California Film Shoots: More features are shooting in the state (even if TV is still falling in L.A.), but overall production spend is down notably as recent on-location activity is fueled by smaller-budget indie projects. (Hollywood Reporter)

• Will the YIMBY ‘Holy Grail’ Deliver an LA Building Boom? Supporters of the California zoning reform bill SB 79 say it will unleash a wave of multistory apartment buildings. In low-rise-loving Los Angeles, that could be a tall order. (CityLab)

• The Pentagon Can’t Trust GPS Anymore. Is Quantum Physics the Answer? New devices navigate without satellites or risk of enemy jamming signals. (Wall Street Journal)

• When it comes to nukes and AI, people are worried about the wrong thing: A rogue AI killing us all is, for now at least, a far-fetched fear; a human consulting an AI on pressing the button is the scenario that should keep us up at night. (Vox)

• (Some) MAGA Girls Just Wanna Have Fun: What does it mean to be female and conservative in 2025?  (The Atlantic)

• The Humble Ladybug Is Having a PR Crisis: Once known for bringing good luck, the insect is getting a bad rap thanks to an invasive species; ‘too many ladybugs’ (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Morgan Housel, whose new book, “The Art of Spending Money, Simple Choices for a Richer Life” was just published. His first book, “The Psychology of Money” sold over 10 million copies.

 

Growth is likely to reaccelerate in 2026, driven by lower trade war uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and a possible GDP boost of ~1 percentage point due to accelerated depreciation

Source: Apollo

 

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The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

College-Educated Oversupply Crisis Worsens 

The widening mismatch between an oversupply of college-educated workers and a deepening shortage of talent for non-degree, hands-on jobs has grown even more pronounced.

Bloomberg reports that the latest delayed BLS data shows a sharp deterioration in white-collar jobs, especially those holding four-year degrees, now making up a record 25% of all unemployed - or about 1.9 million folks, the highest level since 1992.

The unemployment rate for bachelor’s degree holders climbed to 2.8% in September, while joblessness for other education groups remained relatively the same. Young degree-holders are getting squeezed the most: unemployment for ages 20 to 24 jumped to 9.2%, an increase rarely seen outside recessions. 

The jobs data builds on our note last week, citing Goldman analysts led by Evan Tylenda, who spoke with labor demographer Ron Hetrick.

Their discussion highlighted an alarming shift in the labor market: an oversupply of college graduates and a shortage of non-college-degree technical workers.

ZeroHedge Pro subscribers can read the full note in the usual spot. It offers key understandings of the shifting labor market ahead of the 2030s. 

Palantir CEO Alex Karp recently had an epic quote about this emerging labor market mess :

The average Ivy League grad voting for this mayor is annoyed their education is not that valuable, and that the person who knows how to drill for oil has a more valuable profession.

I think that annoys the f*ck out of these people. 

Palantir CEO Alex Karp on Zohran Mamdani and NYC:

“We’re about to probably have a complete disaster. I was born in New York.

“If you asked, ‘do these things actually work?’ Everyone’s like, ‘of course I’m not going to vote for that.’ Instead they ask, ‘does it work in theory?’ pic.twitter.com/yvA6nn5Aeu

— Jawwwn (@jawwwn_) November 4, 2025

The education industrial complex has spent more time transforming kids into Marxist activists than preparing them for future labor market shifts. Now, these purple-haired degree holders are entering a shrinking labor market, and companies view these kids as giant liabilities.

It’s time for young people to consider avoiding overpriced college. Perhaps time to learn an actual skill that makes you valuable, one that lets you remain productive before automation and AI sweep the labor market, such as building data centers or working on natural gas turbines. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 05:45

FAA Prepared For Busiest Thanksgiving Travel In 15 Years

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is preparing for the busiest Thanksgiving holiday travel period in 15 years.

More than 360,000 flights are scheduled between Monday, Nov. 24, and Tuesday, Dec. 2, delivering people to and from their destinations across the country. Flights are set to peak on Nov. 25, with more than 52,000 flights alone, and Nov. 26 is expected to be nearly as busy, with more than 50,000 flights scheduled.

Thanksgiving Day, Nov. 27, is expected to see the lowest air traffic that week, with the administration forecasting more than 25,500 flights. Last week, the FAA ended its mandatory flight reductions and now stands ready to oversee the travel spike.

“Thanks to the dedication of our air traffic controllers and every FAA employee, we are ready for the holiday rush and take pride in helping travelers reach their friends and families during this important time of year,” FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said.

“I am deeply grateful to our entire FAA team. Even through a period of record-high traffic, their unwavering commitment keeps the system running safely.”

One of the airports that faced those reductions, Tampa International Airport (TPA) in Florida, released its own statement ahead of the holiday rush to assure travelers that it would be fully staffed.

“TPA is ready to fully handle the estimated 924,000-plus passengers projected to pass through the Airport over the Thanksgiving holiday travel period from November 20 to December 1,” the airport said in its statement.

“TPA’s operations team anticipates that Sunday, November 30, will be the busiest day, with an estimated 86,278 passengers expected to pass through the airport.”

If delays are experienced, it is unlikely to be due to the volume of flights, according to the FAA.

As of Nov. 10, the administration said that approximately 13.5 percent of total delay time was due to volume, while more than 62 percent was due to weather.

And weather could become an issue for several airports across the country and across the travel period.

“A frontal system passing from the Great Lakes to the interior Northeast Sunday into Monday will bring a mix of rain and snow showers,” the Weather Prediction Center said on Nov. 22.

“Thunderstorms will continue today for south Texas in [the] vicinity of a stationary frontal boundary.”

The Dallas-Fort Worth area is anticipating severe rainfall on Nov. 24, with rainfall totals possibly reaching up to four inches. However, on Thanksgiving Day, the weather is expected to be sunny and dry, with a high of 60 degrees Fahrenheit.

Heavy rains will also be felt across Texas and the Mississippi River, extending to Kansas City, Missouri.

“Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late Monday into Tuesday as another disturbance and associated cold front pushes through Southeast TX,” the National Weather Service’s Houston office stated.

“Some storms will have the potential to become strong to severe. In addition, locally heavy rain will be possible. The greatest risk of strong to severe storms will be generally north of I-10. Instability will be a limiting factor though.”

Slow-moving showers will also affect the greater Atlanta area and the southeast.

“Slow-moving showers push into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday and Thursday with beneficial rainfall expected, especially over north Georgia,” the National Weather Service’s Atlanta/Peachtree City Office said.

Out west, Denver could also be affected as the National Weather Service reports a cold front moving across its part of the Rocky Mountains on Nov. 24 and Nov. 25, bringing possible snow showers. However, as of Nov. 22, forecasted travel impacts remain minimal.

The American Automobile Association (AAA) projected that approximately 6 million people will travel by air for Thanksgiving this year, a 2 million year-over-year increase. But this represents only a fraction of total travelers during this holiday period.

“At least 73 million people will travel by car, that’s nearly 90 percent of Thanksgiving travelers, and an additional 1.3 million people on the road compared to last Thanksgiving,” AAA said on its website.

“That number could end up being higher if some air travelers decide to drive instead of fly following recent flight cancellations.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 05:00

Luxembourgers Are The World's Biggest Coffee Drinkers

The global coffee market continues to grow, but consumption patterns vary widely across countries. Northern European nations dominate the upper tiers, driven by a long-standing café culture and high per-capita spending. Meanwhile, large emerging markets drink far less per person despite being major producers.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, ranks 65 countries by their daily coffee consumption per capita in 2025, showing how drinking habits differ around the world. The table below also includes data on lifetime coffee consumption, and average cup prices.

The data for this ranking comes from Cafely.

Europe Continues to Dominate Global Coffee Consumption

Northern Europe remains the global center of coffee drinking. Luxembourg leads the world with 5.31 cups per day per person—far ahead of larger economies.

Luxembourg’s per-capita figure is boosted by its huge commuter workforce. Nearly half of all workers (47%) live outside the country, and their daily coffee consumption is counted in Luxembourg’s totals.

Finland and Sweden, long known for their strong coffee cultures, follow closely behind. All of the top 10 countries are European, reflecting both historical preferences and high purchasing power.

RankCountryDaily coffee
consumption
per Capita (Cups)Lifetime
Consumption (Cups)Price
per cupLifetime spending 1Luxembourg5.31118,227$3.60$425,618 2Finland3.7783,939$4.00$335,756 3Sweden2.5958,612$3.70$216,863 4Norway2.5758,159$4.40$255,900 5Austria2.0345,198$3.30$149,153 6Denmark2.0444,676$5.40$241,250 7Switzerland1.8742,318$5.00$211,591 8Netherlands1.7939,854$3.10$123,548 9Greece1.7137,449$3.10$116,092 10Germany1.6135,259$3.10$109,303 11Canada1.5734,956$3.50$122,346 12Belgium1.5734,383$3.10$106,587 13France1.4832,952$3.10$102,152 14Slovenia1.4932,631$1.70$55,473 15Italy1.4432,587$1.54$50,184 16Lebanon1.631,536$3.63$114,476 18Brazil1.5831,142$1.55$48,270 17Cyprus1.4231,098$3.17$98,581 19Portugal1.4130,879$1.66$51,259 20Croatia1.4730,583$1.72$52,603 21Estonia1.4429,959$3.05$91,376 22Lithuania1.4328,707$2.72$78,084 23Czech Republic1.2526,463$2.46$65,098 24United States1.2225,827$4.69$121,131 24Australia1.1425,798$3.24$83,586 26Ireland1.1325,159$3.47$87,303 27Spain1.0623,988$1.92$46,057 28Costa Rica1.0522,229$2.55$56,683 29Japan0.9321,385$3.10$66,295 30Poland0.9519,765$2.48$49,017 31Latvia0.9719,119$2.78$53,150 32Bulgaria0.9818,243$1.57$28,641 33South Korea0.7416,746$3.59$60,119 34Romania0.8616,637$2.01$33,440 35Malta0.6715,162$2.45$37,147 36Algeria0.7214,454$0.84$12,141 37El Salvador0.7113,217$2.65$35,024 38Hungary0.6412,848$1.57$20,171 39Venezuela0.6912,844$1.59$20,423 40Slovakia0.6112,468$2.15$26,807 41Colombia0.612,264$1.14$13,981 42Ukraine0.5810,797$1.13$12,200 43Saudi Arabia0.5210,629$3.82$40,602 44Taiwan0.469,906$2.79$27,638 45Dominican Republic0.529,870$2.11$20,825 46Russia0.59,673$2.91$28,147 47Honduras0.519,494$1.80$17,089 48Vietnam0.428,125$1.99$16,169 49Philippines0.437,848$2.47$19,383 50Ethiopia0.467,556$0.78$5,893 51Haiti0.467,220$2.74$19,782 52Turkey0.316,450$1.54$9,932 53Thailand0.36,351$1.81$11,495 54Morocco0.315,997$1.62$9,715 55Guatemala0.345,957$2.37$14,118 56Mexico0.295,610$2.55$14,306 57Indonesia0.274,829$2.06$9,948 58Argentina0.214,292$1.76$7,555 59Sudan0.233,694$1.80$6,649 60Madagascar0.193,051$1.19$3,631 61Egypt0.173,040$1.99$6,050 62South Africa0.172,544$1.72$4,376 63Peru0.112,208$2.50$5,521 64Uganda0.081,226$2.86$3,508 65India0.02365$1.83$668 Large Economies Consume Less Coffee Per Person

Despite being major consumers in absolute terms, large countries such as the United States, Japan, and Brazil rank much lower on a per-person basis.

The United States averages 1.22 cups per day, placing it 24th overall. Japan, with its thriving café scene and canned-coffee culture, averages just under one cup per day. Brazil, the world’s biggest coffee producer, lands mid-pack at 18th with 1.58 cups per day.

Some Countries Barely Drink Coffee at All

At the bottom of the ranking are countries where tea or other beverages dominate daily habits. India records the lowest consumption at just 0.02 cups per day—roughly one cup every seven weeks. Several African and South Asian countries also rank low, typically drinking less than 0.3 cups daily.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Which Countries Drink the Most Wine? on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 04:15

UK Greenlights First Rolls-Royce SMR Project Despite US Pushback

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

• UK selects Rolls-Royce as preferred SMR developer and launches its first project at Wylfa, aiming for mid-2030s power generation.

• The decision triggers criticism from the Trump administration, which pushed for U.S. firm Westinghouse to lead the project.

• Despite diplomatic friction, the UK says SMRs will anchor a domestic nuclear revival and leave room for future collaboration with U.S. developers.

After selecting Rolls-Royce as the United Kingdom’s preferred bidder to build the country’s first small modular reactors (SMRs), the government has confirmed the start of project development in Wales. The development of SMR technology is expected to help the U.K. expand its nuclear power capacity, as well as become a competitive SMR power. However, the United States Trump administration, which recently signed an agreement with the U.K. for SMR development, does not support the choice of a British company for the development of the technology. 

In June, the U.K. government announced that Rolls-Royce SMR had been selected as the preferred bidder to partner with Great British Energy – Nuclear (GBE-N) to develop SMRs, subject to final government approvals and contract signature. The government pledged almost $3.3 billion for the SMR programme, expecting to support the creation of 3,000 new skilled jobs and power the equivalent of roughly 3 million homes with clean, domestic energy. 

The SMR project marks a major shift in the U.K.’s approach to nuclear energy, as it develops the first two major conventional nuclear plants in several decades and invests in new nuclear technologies. SMRs are smaller and faster to build than conventional nuclear reactors, and their modular nature means that more capacity can be added as required. 

In November, the government announced plans to develop a first-of-its-kind nuclear power station on the Welsh island of Anglesey. The plant at Wylfa will be home to three SMRs, although it will have space for up to eight, with works expected to commence in 2026 and first power generation in the mid-2030s.

The existing nuclear plant at Wylfa was powered down in 2015, and previous plans for a large-scale replacement were scrapped in 2021. The new project is expected to bring a much-needed boost to Anglesey’s economy, as well as provide jobs for several decades. Prime Minister Kier Starmer said, “Britain was once a world leader in nuclear power, but years of neglect and inertia have meant places like Anglesey have been let down and left behind. Today, that changes."

The First Minister of Wales, Eluned Morgan, supports the project and has been “pressing the case at every opportunity for Wylfa's incredible benefits”. Meanwhile, the U.K. energy minister, Ed Miliband, said that Britain is in the race for new reactors. Miliband said in a radio interview that the aim is to “work with local colleges to make sure that there are local skills providers, skills training opportunities, so local people get these jobs”.

The SMRs will be built in a modular format in factories before being shipped to site to be assembled. However, several challenges remain, including getting regulatory approval, building the SMR factories, and training the workforce to operate the sites. Rolls-Royce will build on its experience developing reactors for Britain’s nuclear submarines to develop the SMRs. Since promoting its SMR business, the British firm has attracted several investors, including the UAE’s sovereign wealth fund – the Qatar Investment Authority, the American utility Constellation, and CEZ, the Czech Republic’s power company.

While the new project offers high hopes for the development of the U.K.’s nuclear energy industry, U.S. President Trump is less than happy with Prime Minister Starmer’s selection of Rolls-Royce for the job. The U.S. was reportedly hoping that the U.K. government would choose American Westinghouse Electric Company to develop a conventional nuclear plant at Wylfa.

Before the Anglesey project was announced, the U.S. ambassador Warren Stephens published a statement saying that Britain should choose “a different path” in Wales. “We are extremely disappointed by this decision, not least because there are cheaper, faster and already-approved options to provide clean, safe energy at this same location,” Stephens stated. The ambassador’s response follows the signing of a nuclear partnership between the U.K. and the U.S. in September, with a potential value of $100 billion.

However, a source close to the U.K. government said, “This is the right choice for Britain. This is our flagship SMR programme, producing homegrown clean power with a British company, and we have chosen the best site for it.”

Nevertheless, the U.K. government said that developing SMRs at Wylfa “doesn’t close the door" to a U.S. manufacturer working on a future project. GBE-N is also assessing different sites in the U.K. for the potential development of another large-scale nuclear power plant, like Hinkley Point in Somerset and Sizewell C in Suffolk, which are currently being developed and are expected to power around six million homes once complete.

Despite the agreement for greater cooperation between the U.K. and the U.S. on nuclear power, the U.K. government has chosen a British company to develop its first SMR project, showing its support for the development of domestic nuclear technologies. The project is expected to make the U.K. highly competitive in the field of SMR reactor development over the coming decade, as well as diversify the country’s nuclear power industry. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 03:30

G20 In South Africa Ends With A Whimper After Trump Snubs Event

South Africa is back in the news yet again, and facing embarrassment yet again.  South Africa's far-left government was hoping that the G20 Summit held this week in Johannesburg would elevate the country's global position and garner them international attention (and funding).  It is the first time in history that the G20 has been held in South Africa.    

However, the Trump Administration has made it clear that the South African event is a nothing-burger and the real G20 will be held in the US (in Florida) in 2026.  The meeting was not only snubbed by Trump; China, Russia, Argentina, Mexico and Indonesia did not send representatives either, likely because the summit had no momentum without US participation. 

Confusion arose when SA President Cyril Ramaphosa spread rumors that the US was actually participating in the talks, leading the media to suggest Trump had flip-flopped. 

When asked about the alleged shift, Press Secretary Karoline Levit accused Ramaphosa of 'running his mouth' about the US and spreading misinformation.  No such change had occurred and the US did not attend the talks.  This is yet another example of Ramaphosa making claims which end up being easily debunked.

A primary contention over the event was the highlighting of the global warming and carbon taxation agenda, which Trump has repeatedly called out as a fraud.  For countries like South Africa, however, the climate change issue has the potential to become highly lucrative.

The UN, the WEF and many other globalist institutions have called for carbon taxation as a form of wealth redistribution from wealthy nations to third world nations.  Carbon taxes are sometimes referred to as "climate reparations" that could greatly enrich countries with less substantial industry (carbon footprint).  The carbon scheme is in fact nothing more than another cash grab by global elites, using the "plight" of the third world and unfounded fears of climate oblivion as justifications for centralized carbon taxation and worldwide socialism.

South Africa is facing deepening economic decline, with a 32% unemployment rate and imploding infrastructure (due to lack of proper maintenance over the span of decades), the country was already in dire straits when Trump entered office. 

Trump made South Africa's anti-white policies (145 race based laws that undermine the rights of white citizens) and land confiscation laws international news. He then crushed President Cyril Ramaphosa on live TV with videos of communist political groups calling for the mass murder of white farmers (Boers) after Ramaphosa denied such a problem existed. 

The end of the insidious USAID organization and cuts to foreign funding have further eroded SA's economy.  Now, their first ever G20 event is opening with a whimper of empty resolutions and missing world leaders. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 02:45

Why'd Kazakhstan Join The Abraham Accords When It Already Recognizes Israel?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Many observers were surprised after Kazakhstan joined the Abraham Accords during President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s trip to DC to attend the latest C5+1 Summit since it’s already recognized Israel since 1992.

The Presidential and Foreign Ministry websites shed more light on this decision.

The first wrote that “By joining the Abraham Accords, Kazakhstan seeks to contribute to overcoming confrontation, promoting dialogue, and supporting international law based on the principles of the UN Charter.”

It added that “The decision of Kazakhstan does not affect the country’s bilateral commitments with any state and represents a natural continuation and manifestation of its multilateral diplomacy aimed at promoting peace and security.”

The second echoed this message: “This important decision was made solely in the interests of Kazakhstan and is fully consistent with the nature of republic’s balanced, constructive, and peaceful foreign policy.”

Their statement then concluded as follows: “Joining the Abraham Accords will contribute to strengthening our country’s cooperation with all interested states and, therefore, is fully in line with Kazakhstan’s strategic goals. Kazakhstan will continue to firmly advocate for a just, comprehensive, and sustainable settlement of the Middle East conflict based on international law, relevant UN resolutions, and the principle of ‘two states for two peoples.’”

Accordingly, the official explanation is that this purely symbolic move was meant to signal support for a “two-state solution” and bolster Kazakhstan’s multi-alignment policy, but there’s actually more to it. This was indisputably intended to appeal to Trump, thus raising Tokayev’s profile in his eyes, and coincided with the raft of deals that they agreed to. This importantly includes a MoU on critical minerals that was assessed here as putting pressure, unintended by Kazakhstan but deliberate by the US, on Russia.

The above preceded Tokayev’s trip to Moscow to meet with Putin, the purpose of which was to reassure Russia that Kazakhstan isn’t siding with the US against it, but it’s now clear that Kazakhstan is more actively relying on the US for balancing Russia. It’s this trend, which isn’t new but is now taking on a qualitatively different form due to how the new TRIPP Corridor is expected to intensify US-Kazakh ties and Tokayev doing a personal favor for Trump by joining the Abraham Accords, that’s most newsworthy.

It was earlier warned that “The West Is Posing New Challenges To Russia Along Its Entire Southern Periphery”, which Russia is aware of as proven by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent remarks to this effect, and that “A US Think Tank Considers Kazakhstan To Be A Key Player For Containing Russia”. Nevertheless, Kazakhstan is still a member of the Russian-led CSTO military bloc and the EAEU economic one, but it’s understandable if Putin might soon begin to wonder about Tokayev’s long-term intentions.

Azerbaijan just announced that its armed forces now conform with NATO standards, and if Kazakhstan one day tries to follow suit, then Russia’s threat assessment would spike. Tokayev hasn’t signaled any such plans, but by doing a personal favor for Trump by joining the Abraham Accords, he likely expects him and the US to have his back if he ever decides to do so and this leads to a crisis with Russia. Therein lies the real significance of what he just did, which lends credence to concerns about his intentions.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 02:00