US Sending Witkoff, Kushner To Pakistan As Iran Balks At Talks Summary

• President Trump is sending two envoys - Steve Witkoff and Jared Jushner - for talks with Iran in Pakistan, CNN reported, while Tehran sounded a more pessimistic tone on the prospects of further negotiations

• Avalanche of Friday morning headlines speculating on Iran FM travel to Pakistan, and potential US delegating arriving too - Iranians will just engage Pakistan mediators in this visit.

• Third US aircraft carrier, the George HW Bush, has finally arrived in Mideast regional waters after taking the long way around Africa.

• Hegseth in presser renews call, highlighting main issue, for Iran: "All they have to do is abandon a nuclear weapon in meaningful and verifiable ways..."; Warns Iranians over continued mine-laying.

• Tehran again rejects as 'false' the rumors about Iran Parliament speaker being replaced with someone more hardline.

//--> //--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 49% · No 52%
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US Sends Team to Pakistan, CNN Says, as Iran Balks at 

Confirming earlier speculation, CNN reported that President Trump is sending tdswo envoys for talks with Iran in Pakistan, even as Tehran sounded a more pessimistic tone on the prospects of further negotiations. Special envoy Steve Witkoff and the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner are set to participate in talks this weekend with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Yet according to Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency reported earlier, no talks are slated to take place between the two parties during the foreign minister’s trip. Vice President JD Vance, the lead negotiator for the US, isn’t currently expected to join the delegation, CNN said. According to the latest from the White House Press Secretary on Vance:

Vice President JD Vance will be on “standby” and is “willing to dispatch to Pakistan” for Iran talks if negotiations progress in a way that the White House determines is a “necessary use of his time,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says.

Araghchi earlier said he was headed to Pakistan, but poured cold water on speculation that the US and Iran were close to a second round of negotiations to end the eight-week war, posting on social media that the purpose of his travel is to “closely coordinate with our partners on bilateral matters and consult on regional developments.”

Officials in Pakistan familiar with the matter said they expected a second round of peace talks between the US and Iran, while declining to say when the negotiations would happen or at what level.

Oil fell by as much as 3.3% to trade near $93 a barrel on the latest sign that the elusive peace talks between the US and Iran may materialize after all, even if there are no assurances of a favorable outcome. Traders had been closely tracking the movements of both delegations for signals on whether negotiations would come to pass and offer some relief as the strait remains largely shut.

The announcement came as the US increased pressure on Iran with its naval blockade, seeking to get Tehran to agree to talks, while Israel and Lebanon are set to extend a ceasefire for three weeks. Trump ordered the US Navy to shoot any boat putting mines in the Strait of Hormuz, after the military intercepted two oil supertankers that tried to evade restrictions on traffic to and from Iran’s ports. The move by Trump, who claimed Iran is laying sea mines in the strait, is part of the White House’s attempt to cut off the country’s oil exports, squeezing it economically and forcing it to make concessions that will help end the war.

“I have all the time in the World, but Iran doesn’t — The clock is ticking!” Trump said in a Truth Social post.

Meanwhile, in case talks prove futile again, Pete Hegseth, Trump’s defense secretary, on Friday said a second aircraft carrier will join the blockade in just a few days.

Iran FM Will Not Meet American Side in Pakistan; Tehran Denies Ghalibaaf Rumors

...but he will travel to Islamabad, and is expected there by Friday evening, amid what's being described as a multi-nation diplomatic tour to shore up support for Tehran, and to set the conditions for potential next round of negotiations with Washington.

"The date for the launch of the second round of US-Iranian negotiations has not yet been determined," a Pakistani source told Al Hadath. In Islamabad all that's expected is that FM Araghchi and his small team will engage with Pakistani mediators, and nothing more. There's been no comment on all of this from the White House, which says Trump has "all the time in the world" regarding the Iran war and Hormuz standoff. Meanwhile Tehran has once again vehemently rejected as false the new Friday reports that Iran Parliament Speaker Ghalibaaf has been replaced as lead negotiator. 

Embarking on timely tour of Islamabad, Muscat, and Moscow.

Purpose of my visits is to closely coordinate with our partners on bilateral matters and consult on regional developments.

Our neighbors are our priority.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) April 24, 2026

More Speculation on Ghalibaf Resigning Negotiations Team

Tehran on Thursday rejected widespread reports that Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf as resigned from leadership of Iran's negotiating team. But these reports have persisted into Friday, with Saudi-funded, London-based Iran International 'newly' reporting:

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, head of Iran’s negotiating team with the United States, has stepped down amid internal disagreements, Iran International has learned.

According to information obtained by Iran International, Ghalibaf was reprimanded for attempting to include the nuclear issue in talks with Washington and was forced to resign.

Hardline figure Saeed Jalili could replace him, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is also seeking to take over the negotiations.

And yet the fact remains that no talks are as yet scheduled, with regional media now saying Iran FM Araghchi is about to tour different countries, including Oman and even will make a stop in Russia - and that this may include Islamabad. If so, reports say it could just be part of a preparatory phase to engage Washington directly again. Latest via AJ: "No Iran-US talks to take place during FM Abbas Araghchi's visit to Pakistan, only bilateral engagement," citing senior Iranian source.

Hegseth Presser: Mine-Laying, Nuclear Sticking Point

A key line from the Pentagon chief on Friday morning: "All they have to do is abandon a nuclear weapon in meaningful and verifiable ways, or instead they can watch the regime's fragile economic state collapse under the unrelenting pressure of American power, a blockade as long as it takes, whatever President Trump decides," Hegseth said. He added that with the blockade continuing, "the clock is not on their side."

On this, Hegseth reiterated, "President Trump said it again yesterday. We have all the time in the world, and we're not anxious for a deal." And yet, he actually again made comparison to America's forever wars in the region:

Still, Hegseth opened his remarks to reporters decrying what he called the "endless wars of the past that dragged on for years and for decades," and he sought to draw distinctions between the conflicts in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Instead, the defense secretary argued that Operation Epic Fury has delivered a "decisive military result" in weeks, with a focus on the mission of keeping Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.

The defense secretary said the mission is continuing into a new phase, and Iran now has the opportunity to make a peace deal. "Iran has an important choice, a chance to make a deal. A good deal. A wise deal," he said.

He further referenced yesterday's reports that Iran is still engaged in mine-laying activity in the Strait of Hormuz, and warned: "If Iran is putting mines in the water, or otherwise threatening American commercial shipping or American forces, we will shoot to destroy. No hesitation," he said.

Inadvertent admission of the leveling power of asymmetric warfare & geographic advantage: "Any one with a speedboat and a gun..."

Hegseth:

The vessels that the Iranians seized in recent days, a couple of them, they're not American or Israeli ships. They're just random ships.

They drove their little speedboats up to and shot at those ships with AK-47s.

Anyone with a speedboat, a gun, and the wrong… pic.twitter.com/BGQM97vUeQ

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 24, 2026

'Breakthrough' on 2nd Round Pakistan Talks(?)

After signaling all day yesterday that it has not decided to engage the United States in a second round of peace talks, Friday morning has seen a flurry of headlines out of Saudi and regional media speculating that today is different. "Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi may arrive tonight accompanied by a small delegation," Pakistani government source has told Al Arabiya's correspondent.

Also Bloomberg too is reporting that Iran's FM Araghchi is expected to arrive in Islamabad tonight. Additionally sources out of Pakistan say the country may announce today the resumption of negotiations between Iran and America. Of course, we've seen many such "second round of US-Iran talks expected" headlines before which didn't materialize, and at the moment there's no signs of movement out of the US side.

via Al Jazeera

However, some of these same sources and headlines are cautioning that it is unclear if there will be Washington engagement. But if a second round of talks actually materializes, it will lend credence to the recent White House insistence that Tehran's private stance is much more compromising and conciliatory than its public stance. Latest:

IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTER ABBAS ARAGHCHI IS EXPECTED TO REACH ISLAMABAD AT AROUND 10 PM LOCAL TIME, ACCORDING TO AN IRANIAN SOURCE.

And Al Jazeera freshly reports on a flurry of phone calls, which suggests some kind of potential "breakthrough" in getting back to the negotiating table:

Government sources have confirmed there is a “high likelihood of a breakthrough” in US-Iran talks in Islamabad, as a delegation led by Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to arrive in the Pakistani capital tonight. Earlier today, Iran’s foreign minister held a telephone conversation with Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, confirmed by both sides.

Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said the two sides exchanged views on regional developments, the ceasefire, and ongoing diplomatic efforts in the context of US-Iran engagement. Dar underscored the importance of sustained dialogue, while Araghchi appreciated Pakistan’s “consistent and constructive facilitation role”, the ministry said.

Iran’s state news agency IRNA also reported that Araghchi held a separate telephone conversation with Pakistan’s Army chief Asim Munir.

Third US Carrier Finally Arrives in Region

US Central Command (CENTCOM) is flashing the big stick, as there are now three US aircraft carrier groups total in the region. Some pundits have speculated that the whole Islamabad second round talks back-and-forth has just been a delay tactic for each side to regroup, replenish missiles, and position forces in the region.

After all, Israel's defense ministry on Thursday stated bluntly it is preparing for a new round of warfare with Iran, and Iranian forces too say they are ready for anything that comes, and have continued to preview that America's Gulf allies would also face renewed attack for hosting US forces.

For the first time in decades, three aircraft carriers are operating in the Middle East at the same time. Accompanied by their carrier air wings, the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72), USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) and USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) include over 200 aircraft and 15,000… pic.twitter.com/fbMdz1IYn8

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) April 24, 2026

More Geopolitical Overnight & Latest

According to more of some of the latest from Al Jazeera:

• US President Donald Trump says he hopes to host Israeli and Lebanese leaders “in the near future”, after announcing a three-week extension to the fragile ceasefire in Lebanon, which was due to expire on Sunday.
• President Trump said he is under no pressure to end his war with Iran, though time is limited for Tehran. “I have all the time in the World, but Iran doesn’t – The clock is ticking!” Trump wrote on social media.
• A third US aircraft carrier has arrived in the Middle East. The USS George HW Bush joined the USS Gerald R Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln in a massive buildup of naval firepower.
• Trump gives orders to “shoot and kill” any Iranian boats placing sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, as the US naval siege of Iran’s ports continues, and officials in Tehran say talks will not resume until the blockade is lifted.

And via Newsquawk: 

• Iran Foreign Minister to Visit Islamabad Friday, Pakistan Says; Oil Dips After Pakistan Says US-Iran Peace Talks Are Expected: BBG
• US President Trump posted that the meeting between Israel and Lebanon went well, the US is to work with Lebanon to protect itself from Hezbollah and that the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is to be extended by three weeks: RTRS
• Israeli media: A limited operation against Iran may be carried out to avoid a prolonged war: Al Arabiya 
• An Iranian Ship Tried to Slip Past the Blockade. A U.S. Destroyer Chased It Down: WSJ
• Tanker Helga arrives at Iraq’s Basra offshore terminal to load 2mln BPD of crude, sources say; Helga is the second tanker to reach Basra terminals since the Hormuz closure.
• U.S. Soldier Charged With Using Classified Information to Bet on Maduro’s Ouster: WSJ
• Pentagon email floats suspending Spain from NATO, other steps over Iran rift: RTRS
• China to Curb US Investment in Tech Companies After Meta Deal: BBG
• Intel Shares Set to Eclipse Dot-Com Peak on Sales Forecast
• Conservative super PAC threatens to unseat Republicans over immigration bill: RTRS
• Hedge Fund at Center of Avis Squeeze Added to Stake Before Rout: BBG
• Citadel Sends Warning Shot to NYC After Mamdani Jabs Griffin: WSJ
• Meta Signs Multibillion-Dollar Deal With Amazon to Use Its CPU Chips for AI: WSJ
• Lilly’s New Obesity Pill Off to Slow Start in Race With Novo: BBG
• Oracle’s Deluge of AI Debt Pushes Wall Street to the Limit: WSJ
• Orban’s Son-in-Law Waits Out Hungarian Wealth Probe in New York: BBG
• Chinese Securities Regulator said that China is to allow qualified foreign investors to trade treasury futures from April 24, 2026, for hedging purposes only.
• US official said Russia is to be included in G20 summit invitations

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Tyler Durden Fri, 04/24/2026 - 12:30

Jane Street Made A Record $40 Billion In Trading Revenue Last Year, More Than All Wall Street Banks

The 10am slam in bitcoin, which we documented virtually every days since 2024 may have ended once Jane Street got busted for insider trading in the Terraform collapse, but that doesn't mean that the Wall Street HFT trading giant slowed down. On the contrary: according to Bloomberg, Jane Street Group reeled in a Wall Street record $39.6 billion of trading revenue last year, more than any Wall Street bank.

According to the report, the firm beat out all global investment banks after reaping $15.5 billion in the year’s final quarter, and with only 3,500 employees, it beat nearest rival JPMorgan by 11% during the year. The company's adjusted ETBIDA for the full year was a stunning $31.2 billion. 

While Jane Street’s profits were lifted by surging valuations of its stakes in privately held companies, the firm’s main business matching buyers and sellers across assets thrived on bouts of market volatility. The new annual record - which includes gains on long-term investments - shows "how the balance of power has shifted in one of the most lucrative arenas of global finance."

Jane Street’s "appetite for risk" helped the firm generate more than $11 million of revenue on average per employee.

Jane rivals Citadel Securities and Hudson River Trading also notched records of their own last year, pulling in a more modest $12.2 billion and $12.3 billion respectively, Bloomberg has previously reported. They and Jane Street have filled voids left by banks more focused on higher-returning businesses. JPMorgan posted $35.8 billion of trading revenue in 2025 and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. $31.1 billion.

For banks, Jane's ascent - marked with various regulatory mishaps - is a manifestation of the fears they have long harbored about someday losing ground to upstarts when US regulators imposed prop trading rules which sought to curb betting by deposit-taking institutions after the 2008 financial crisis. Nonbanks don’t face the same strictures on capital as those too-big-to-fail lenders, and they have capitalized aggressively.

Starting in 2000, Jane Street cut its teeth trading American depository receipts, and later specialized in exchange-traded funds. It has since expanded across asset classes around the world, often profiting from mismatches in prices. At its core an HFT firm, Jane Street developed technology for handling thousands of trades within seconds like other high-frequency firms, but it also reaps gains by holding some positions for hours, days and even weeks.

While it has kept a remarkable low profile, its recent public appearances have been less than laudatory: The company's record haul is confirmation that Jane Street, long known for its secrecy, was able to keep growing after getting thrust into the spotlight in mid-2025 when authorities in India accused of manipulating markets while running what had once been one of the firm’s most lucrative trading strategies. Jane Street has denied those allegations and is fighting them in court. In February, Jane Street was sued by the bankrupt Terraform Labs estate, accusing it of engaging in insider trading that precipitated the $40 billion crash of cryptocurrencies associated with Terraform; this week the HFT firm also urged a judge to throw out that lawsuit.

Jane Street’s stake in rising artificial intelligence venture Anthropic PBC was the driving force behind $830 million of third-quarter gains from bets on private firms. That September, Anthropic boasted a valuation of $183 billion. Since then, the maker of the popular Claude artificial-intelligence model and developer of the much-feared Mythos has raised money at a $380 billion valuation and later received offers from investors for a round of funding that could value it at about $800 billion or higher.

Jane Street is also in funding talks for cloud-computing startup Fluidstack Ltd. and recently invested an additional $1 billion in AI cloud services provider and CoreWeave Inc.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/24/2026 - 12:22

Cava's Lone Bear Analyst Flags Weak Foot Traffic After Stock's 123% Surge

Northcoast Research analyst Jim Sanderson has emerged as Cava Group's lone bear on Wall Street, warning in an interview with Bloomberg that the stock's 123% rally has gone too far.

"The risk profile, given what I see macroeconomically, is unnerving," Sanderson said in the interview. He noted that the recent surge in the stock has made it very expensive to own.

He continued, "The red flag for me was seeing that traffic at some of the mature locations seemed to be very underwhelming, and in many instances, trending negative for several months relative to the peer group."

Cava is the Mediterranean version of Chipotle and builds customers' meals around greens, rice, or pita, then adds proteins, spreads, toppings, and sauces. As with any fast-casual restaurant chain, there is typically a period of consumer hype. And as we all know, on a long enough timeline, nothing lasts forever.

Cava stock is trading at a hefty premium to both the broader market and industry peers. It trades at 159 times forward earnings, compared with Chipotle at about 28 times and the S&P 500 Index at nearly 21 times.

Bloomberg data show Sanderson is the only bear, as Wall Street analysts are largely bullish. There are 17 "Buys" on the stock, along with 13 "Holds." The average 12-month price target is $88.95.

Sanderson's interview follows a note earlier this week from Goldman analyst Christine Cho, who said fast food's "bang for the buck" promotions are working while casual dining's appeal is sliding.

If Sanderson's data on underwhelming foot traffic at certain mature locations is accurate, it may suggest that management will eventually need to deploy discounts or promotions to re-energize consumer interest in Mediterranean-style bowls, salads, and pitas. Otherwise, Cava's Wall Street growth story could seriously lose momentum.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/24/2026 - 12:05

Appeals Court Backs Ruling That Denver Must Pay $14 Million To George Floyd Protesters

Authored by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit upheld a jury’s verdict that ordered the City and County of Denver to pay 12 George Floyd protesters $14 million for “unconstitutional” use of force during 2020 rallies.

Police officers walk through a cloud of tear gas as they try to disperse people protesting against the death of George Floyd in front of the Colorado State Capitol, in Denver, Colo., on May 30, 2020, amid nationwide protests and riots. Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images

The three-judge panel explained their decisions in a pair of rulings published on April 21.

The court agreed that the Colorado city was liable for the unconstitutional force that officers used against the 12 protesters between May 28 and June 2.

Court documents showed the Denver Police Department “exhausted its supply of 30,000 pepper balls and had to restock” after the first day of protests and did not require officers to activate their body cameras.

The Denver Police Department defended its officers, suggesting they “acted reasonably in response to the unprecedented circumstances they encountered” by “violent and destructive” crowds.

“We reject Denver’s arguments and uphold the jury’s verdict,” the judges ruled.

“We do so based specifically on the jury’s finding that Denver inadequately trained its officers.”

The Denver Police Department declined to comment on Tuesday’s decisions by the Colorado-based appeals court.

The department has since implemented a series of changes, based on what it learned from being one of the cities that was involved in the high-profile police brutality protests that spread across the nation.

The department’s changes include how it documents the use-of-force during protests, how it tracks “less-than-lethal munitions,” and how body cameras and officer identification is used.

In a separate, but related, decision, the court rejected an appeal by Denver Police Department officer Jonathan Christian who argued he should not have been found liable for violating the Fourth Amendment right of plaintiff Elisabeth Epps at the height of the police brutality protests.

Christian shot her with a pepperball in the leg as she was peacefully protesting in Denver on May, 29 2020.

Christian’s lawyers argued the officer was entitled to qualified immunity, which is meant to shield government officials from being sued for doing their duties, according to Cornell Law School.

The judges agreed with the jury, finding that Christian did use “using unreasonable force” against Epps when he shot her, “without warning, with a pepperball as she walked by herself [and not in a group], unarmed and non-threatening, across the street toward the capitol.”

Court documents added that any crime she was committing, such as jaywalking, was minor and did not warrant his actions to shoot a pepperball at her.

The judges found that Christian did act with an “evil motive or intent” or with “reckless or callous indifference” to her “federally protected rights.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/24/2026 - 11:45

China Curbs US Investment In Tech Companies After Meta Acquisition Of Manus

Following earlier news that China has blacklisted 7 EU defense and aerospace firms over their dealings with Taiwan, Bloomberg reports that China plans to restrict top technology firms, including leading AI startups, from accepting US capital without government approval. 

Chinese regulators, including the National Development and Reform Commission, have recently instructed several private technology firms to reject U.S. investment in funding rounds unless explicitly approved, ​the report said. The commission - a powerful state planning agency with broad policy-making powers - is now heading a multi-agency probe that includes the Ministry of Commerce into the deal and its repercussions, the people said.

AI startups Moonshot AI and StepFun were among the ​companies that received the guidance, the report said, adding ⁠that TikTok owner ByteDance has also been told it should not allow ​secondary share sales to US investors without clearance. The measures are aimed at ​preventing US investors from gaining stakes in sensitive technologies linked to China's national security.

The ‌heightened ⁠scrutiny follows Meta's more than $2 billion acquisition of AI startup Manus in 2025, which triggered investigations into foreign investments in Chinese companies and technology exports amid concerns the transaction could spur other startups to move advanced technology ​offshore.

At the heart of the post-Manus debate was the way the startup restructured to make a sale to a foreign company possible before any regulatory review in Beijing.  Manus was a Singaporean-incorporated firm, but its founders hailed from China. Launched in March 2025, Manus is a general AI agent capable of automating complex tasks, ranging from S&P 500 analysis to drafting sales pitches. A month later, its parent Butterfly Effect raised $75 million in a round led by Silicon Valley’s Benchmark, valuing it at $500 million. The investment triggered a probe by the US Treasury over potential violations of restrictions on investments in sensitive technologies.

In July, Manus relocated its China-based staff to Singapore, cutting dozens of roles in the process. Meta announced its acquisition in December after Manus surpassed $100 million in annualized revenue.

It remains unclear what other action Beijing will take following its investigation. Manus co-founders Xiao Hong and Ji Yichao had been barred from leaving China, the Financial Times reported in March.

For years, U.S. ​capital has played ⁠a significant role in China's technology sector, ranging from venture investments by firms such as Sequoia Capital ​and Benchmark to deep operating ties involving companies such ​as Apple, ⁠Microsoft and Tesla.

American pension funds and endowments have also been major backers of China-focused venture funds, helping fuel growth across internet platforms, electric vehicles ⁠and AI. Washington ​also imposed its own restrictions earlier this ​year, limiting U.S. investment in certain Chinese AI, semiconductor and quantum firms, citing security concerns.

China's new restrictions risk further isolating China’s recovering tech sector from the venture backing that has underpinned it for two decades, much of which was sourced from American pensions and endowments. It follows Beijing’s decision to restrict “red chips” - Chinese companies incorporated overseas - from seeking initial public offerings in Hong Kong, threatening to upend a decades-old playbook that helped Chinese companies tap foreign capital by floating overseas.

The twin moves suggest that regulators are worried about a leakage of homegrown technology abroad as Chinese-founded startups and companies explore international opportunities. In the wake of the Manus acquisition, many academics decried the loss of a valuable asset to the US. Many worried that the deal would encourage other startups to follow suit.

To be sure, Washington has restricted investments into certain Chinese technology sectors, for fear of helping advance its military or economic might. In 2025, US rules designed to curb investment in Chinese-owned semiconductor, quantum and AI companies took effect.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/24/2026 - 11:35

White House Expects 'Swift' Warsh Confirmation After DOJ Drops Powell Criminal Probe

Update (1050ET): The White House is now expecting 'swift' confirmation of Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh after the DOJ dropped its criminal probe into current Chair Jerome Powell over the Fed's building construction project. 

On Tuesday, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) made clear that he would block Warsh's nomination unless the Powell inquiry was dropped. 

Thom Tillis still refuses to blame Trump for anything: "The problem I have is that some US attorney or assistant US attorney with a dream thought it would be cute to bring Chair Powell under an investigation ... the boss said he didn't know anything about it" pic.twitter.com/WhBawG82bZ

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 21, 2026

To that end...

//--> //--> Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?
Yes 99% · No 1%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

* * *

The Department of Justice is dropping its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, ending a standoff that threatened to delay the confirmation of Powell's successor at the central bank

In a post on X, US Attorney General for DC Jeanine Pirro said she is directing her office to close its investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as the inspector general for the agency has been asked to scrutinize its building construction project costs,

This morning the Inspector General for the Federal Reserve has been asked to scrutinize the building costs overruns – in the billions of dollars – that have been borne by taxpayers.

The IG has the authority to hold the Federal Reserve accountable to American taxpayers. I…

— US Attorney Pirro (@USAttyPirro) April 24, 2026

Pirro initiated a legal battle to serve subpoenas to the central bank as part of a criminal investigation into the cost overruns and congressional testimony Chair Jerome Powell provided on the matter. In March, "Nevertrump" Judge James Boasberg quashed two grand jury subpoenas that Pirro’s office served in January.

The ongoing legal battle has pitted the independence of the Fed against the Justice Department’s power to carry out investigations.

The investigation had thrown the Fed’s expected leadership transition into chaos. Powell’s term as chair is scheduled to expire on May 15, and President Donald Trump has nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to replace him.

Warsh, who appeared before the Senate Banking Committee this week, enjoys broad support among GOP lawmakers, but a key Republican senator, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, vowed to block his confirmation unless the DOJ investigation was dropped.

According to ABC, senior DOJ officials had contacted senators in recent days, including Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. who sits on the Senate Banking Committee, informing them of the plan to drop the probe and refer the matter regarding alleged cost overruns at the Fed's Washington headquarters to the bank's internal watchdog, the sources said. 

The Fed's independent inspector general conducted an audit of the building renovation costs in 2021 and Powell had already asked the watchdog to take a fresh look at the $2.5 billion project last year.

Powell's term ends next month, but he said in March that he would stay in the position until President Donald Trump's pick to lead the Fed, Kevin Warsh, is confirmed. Which is also the reason why the DOJ decided to drop its case as the last thing Trump needed was more confusion over when Warsh would take over.

A spokesperson for the Federal Reserve declined to comment. Reached by ABC News, a spokesperson for Tillis declined to comment.

A Justice Department spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment from ABC News.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/24/2026 - 11:05

Fewer Universities Require DEI Pledges From Faculty Candidates: Report

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Requests related to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) for faculty job candidates in higher education have decreased dramatically - at least on paper - since President Donald Trump began his second term, a new report from Heterodox Academy says.

University of Michigan students pass signage on campus displaying the university's Core Values in Ann Arbor, Mich., on April 3, 2025. Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

This includes the removal of required pledges in cover letters or standalone essays regarding a commitment to DEI. Eleven percent of college and university faculty job listings specified such requirements between August and December of 2025, a decline from 25 percent the previous year, the April 21 report said.

Heterodox Academy, a nonprofit that advocates viewpoint diversity in higher education, analyzed advertisements for more than 20,000 faculty positions posted on HigherEdJobs.com between August and December in the last two years. The website compiles job openings from colleges and universities in every state.

All told, 37 percent of faculty job ads during the fall 2025 semester did not specifically address DEI regarding application materials, but still “signaled that a commitment to DEI will be valued,” the report said.

Additionally, Heterodox Academy researchers found that DEI statements are more likely to be required at schools in the northeast or near the West Coast. The mandate is also more likely at private institutions than public ones, though it has decreased at both since 2024, and is more common found in the humanities disciplines than in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) majors, the report said.

Only 13 percent of the faculty job ads reviewed mentioned viewpoint diversity, the report said, “suggesting that universities continue to emphasize demographic diversity rather than other potential dimensions of diversity such as intellectual heterogeneity.”

Heterodox Academy largely attributes the dramatic decline of DEI requirements for faculty candidates to Trump’s policies.

Early last year, the president issued an executive order prohibiting the use of DEI in student admissions and college and university hiring, in accordance with existing Civil Rights laws prohibiting discrimination based on race. The administration initiated investigations into the wealthiest higher education institutions and cautioned that violators could lose federal funding.

In the weeks that followed, the Department of Education sanctioned several schools accused of discriminatory practices in employment, student admissions, and maintaining DEI programs like mandatory training and affinity groups. Several of them paid tens of millions of dollars in penalties and agreed to conditions set by the federal government, while Harvard University pushed back and has litigation ongoing against the Trump administration.

Trump also asked university administrations to certify that they are not violating anti-discrimination laws, and some schools were offered a compact that promised preferred consideration for federal funding if they committed to ending any remaining DEI initiatives, required SAT scores from student applicants, limited undergraduate admission of foreign nationals to 15 percent, and pledged a policy of institutional neutrality.

Seventeen states, meanwhile, passed laws banning the use of diversity statements in hiring, the report said.

Colleges and universities across the country have scrubbed any mention of DEI from their websites, substituting terms like “office of belonging” or “campus culture.”

Peter Wood, president of the National Association of Scholars and a former professor and administrator at Boston University, said he’s skeptical that higher education is ending its deep-rooted commitment to DEI.

He applauded Heterodox Academy for its research, calling this public acknowledgement a step in the right direction, and said the methodology is sound. Still, “counting mentions of DEI in job advertisements is a long way from what universities are actually doing.”

Removing the three letters or words from job ads, much like renaming DEI functions to something like the office of belonging, doesn’t make a dent in a decades-long, entrenched culture in so many university programs where racial preferences in hiring are still considered essential, and administrators and faculty committees presume that most of the applicants share their liberal, progressive ideology, Wood told The Epoch Times.

“There’s certainly a wink and a nudge that if you want a job here, you better make nice on this front,” he said. “I don’t think they’ve changed these jobs one iota. Senior administrators need to be really convinced that it [DEI] was a mistake and it’s time to move beyond it.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/24/2026 - 11:05

Scramble For AI Compute: Meta Inks Multibillion-Dollar Deal With Amazon For CPU Chips

Meta Platforms inked a multibillion-dollar agreement with Amazon to deploy tens of millions of AWS Graviton processor cores in support of its next-generation AI buildout. The deal makes Meta one of the largest Graviton customers globally and shows CEO Mark Zuckerberg's willingness to spend aggressively on compute infrastructure as the AI arms race intensifies with Alphabet, Microsoft, and other tech giants.

The news that the social media giant would deploy hundreds of thousands of Amazon's general-purpose chips to "support the company's AI efforts" was first reported by Amazon News.

"The chips will power various workloads at Meta, including supporting the company's AI efforts. That work requires infrastructure that can handle billions of interactions while coordinating complex, multi-step agent workflows—exactly the kind of CPU-intensive work Graviton is designed for," the release stated.

The deal also expands Meta's long-running AWS partnership and builds on its large-scale use of Amazon Bedrock. While GPUs remain essential for training large AI models, Amazon noted in the release that the "rise of agentic AI is creating massive demand for CPU-intensive workloads."

The press release did not reveal the value of the Meta-Amazon deal on expanding compute. But in recent weeks, Zuckerberg has signed deals totaling $48 billion with CoreWeave and Nebius, both of which rent out access to Nvidia GPUs that run AI models.

To expand computing capacity, Meta has announced a workforce restructuring, with its latest plan calling for layoffs of around 8,000 employees, or about 10% of its workforce. Microsoft has done the same (read report).

"Meta has, as you can imagine, access to so many options from the supply side. But they chose Graviton5, our 3-nanometer chip, for price performance," Nafea Bshara, an Amazon vice president and distinguished engineer, said, who was quoted by The Wall Street Journal. He said the length of the deal is between three and five years.

Meta shares are marginally higher in premarket trading, while Amazon trades up nearly 2% following the news.

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/24/2026 - 10:45

Getting More Anxious

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

We have another potentially eventful weekend ahead of us. A three-week extension of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon may ease tensions between the US and Iran somewhat, as Trump wants to avoid that this conflict undermines peace talks with Iran. However, there are still no indications that a new round of talks will be held, as both sides continue to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has continued to shoot at commercial ships that tried to navigate the strait, and US President Trump posted that he had “ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat […] that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz,” after the IRGC reported that the Iranian navy has laid more mines in the strait. So, President Trump may have extended the ceasefire earlier this week, but it remains a relative one. A tanker laden with Iranian oil is reportedly attempting to cross the strait today, perhaps testing the US’ resolve. That’s bound to add to tensions between both sides.

If talks do not happen soon, either side may revert to escalation. Recall that Axios reported earlier this week that the US maintains an unofficial three-to-five-day deadline for Iran to end its internal power struggle and get back to the table. If true, that deadline could expire on Sunday. Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Speaker of the Parliament Ghalibaf has resigned from the negotiating team due to these internal rifts, but Iranian reporters are contradicting these accounts.

It seems that the lack of talks is gradually starting to weigh on energy markets. Oil prices have crept higher over the week, with a barrel of Brent now trading around $106 in the futures market. Still, we remain surprised at the relative tranquillity in the energy space. As our energy strategists underscored in their latest note, “futures markets are still materially underpricing the real supply risk facing both crude oil and natural gas.”

On that same tune, the Bank of England warned that global equity prices may not reflect all the risks that face the global economy. Markets are at, or near, their all-time highs, despite these risks. Deputy Governor Breeden said that the Bank expects “an adjustment [of equity prices] at some point.”

Still, the muted response in markets has lessened the urgency for central banks to act, as policymakers around the world prepare for their next policy decisions. Those policymakers who would prefer to hike will have to convince their peers of the necessity. Just a couple of weeks ago, they might have been able to make a strong case for an April hike. However, the longer the conflict in the Middle East remains unresolved, the bigger the stagflationary impact will be. We have therefore shifted our call for an ECB hike to June, but conviction remains relatively low amidst the fog of war.

An inflation shock seems unavoidable now, and the key question is the intensity and duration. In addition to the anecdotal evidence of ripple effects on various supply chains, data are now starting to flag the economic damage too. The Eurozone PMI data came in mixed yesterday, with the French manufacturing sector above expectations and German manufacturing more-or-less in line. However, these headline prints are overstating the resilience of the sector. Manufacturers reported a large inflow of orders, ahead of expected shortages and price increases. So, this appears to be an attempt at stockpiling before the impact of the war becomes more widespread.

By contrast, the Eurozone services PMI fell to 47.4. Survey respondents reported lower output. We would argue that this services survey better reflects the decline in consumer confidence and business optimism, and their willingness to spend.

The PMIs also indicated that cost pressures continue to build “considerably.” Input prices increased further, particularly in manufacturing. But services providers also noted that higher transportation costs are affecting their business. So far, the passthrough to output prices remains limited. Nonetheless, output prices increased at the fastest rate in three years. And, as margins get squeezed further, companies may be forced to passed on more of the cost pressures in the coming months.

Adding further global inflationary pressures, Chinese exporters have begun to raise their prices on “everything from swimsuits to air conditioners,” as oil and oil-related inputs are causing higher production costs across the globe.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/24/2026 - 10:25

The post Bad Vibes and the Trump Betrayal appeared first on CEPR.

Kremlin Hails Putin Invite To G20 Summit In Miami, After Trump Said His Presence 'Very Helpful'

The G20 Miami summit is set to take place at Trump National Doral Golf Course and will focus on "unleashing economic prosperity by eliminating burdensome regulations, unlocking affordable energy and pioneering new technologies," according to President Trump's words. 

Amazingly and quite surprisingly, the Russian Foreign Ministry has announced Russia has been invited to take part "at the highest level" - meaning President Vladimir Putin has been invited, per the Kremlin. The actual date is still far away, slated for Dec. 14-15, 2026.

G20 image, via Atlantic Council

But the fact that this has hit The Washington Post is sure to seriously raise eyebrows among European allies, as well as evoke the ire of Democrats in the US.

"President Trump has been clear that Russia is welcome to attend all G20 meetings as the United States focuses on delivering a successful and productive summit," a Kremlin spokesperson said in response to the alleged invitation. Here's what the Washington Post freshly reported:

The United States intends to invite Russian President Vladimir Putin to the Group of 20 leaders’ summit scheduled for December at President Donald Trump’s Doral golf resort in Miami, though the invitation has not yet been sent, administration officials said Thursday.

Moscow's statements could be in response to what thus far has been only an informal or verbal invite, or in response to the emerging reports this week.

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Pankin told journalists at the UN Headquarters that Moscow will confirm who it will send at a later date.

Europe would certainly receive it as a shock and surprise, given that Putin is directly banned from entering most European countries, given the International Criminal Court arrest warrant against him.

Trump on Thursday had told reporters that he was unaware of any personal invitation to Putin but did stipulate that it would be "probably very helpful" if the Russian leader attended.

Trump as of Thursday at the Oval Office:

Trump:

I haven't invited Putin to the G20, but if he came, it would probably be very helpful. pic.twitter.com/Sku1okEP2x

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 23, 2026

Putin did of course travel to American soil for the Alaska summit at Trump's personal invitation in August 2025, hoping to forge some kind of breakthrough toward Ukraine peace. But direct negotiations with the Zelensky government proved elusive and is now frozen as a possibility.

Russia remains officially part of the G20, but the last time Putin attended the summit was all the way back in 2019, in Osaka, Japan. Since the Ukraine war started, Putin's travel has been limited mostly to the Asian continent.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/24/2026 - 10:05

JetBlue Sued For Allegedly Using Customers' Personal Data To Hike Air Fares

Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

JetBlue Airlines has been sued in a class action lawsuit seeking damages for allegedly using consumers’ personal data to increase airfares.

A JetBlue Airways Airbus A320-232 takes off from Tampa International Airport in Tampa, Fla., on May 15, 2014. Chris O'Meara/AP Photo

The case was filed on Wednesday in the U.S. District Court in the Eastern District of New York.

Brought by plaintiff Andrew Phillips of New York, the litigation states that Phillips booked his ticket on JetBlue’s website, which included a flight from New York to Florida. As required, he provided his contact and payment information, as well as desired airfare and accommodations, according to the lawsuit. However, Phillips was unaware that the airline’s tracking code had also collected and provided other information to a third party.

According to the lawsuit, JetBlue has historically used consumer data to make assumptions about the consumer that could impact pricing.

“The ‘Operating System and Platform’ a consumer uses may seem benign—but it is commonly weaponized as a means to tell the socioeconomic status of a consumer, as those who use Apple’s iOS operating system and platforms are often wealthier than those who use an Android operating system and platform,” the lawsuit states.

In addition, the airline allegedly collected information about consumers’ geographic locations that allow them to adjust prices based on someone’s zip code or socioeconomic class based on where they live.

“This is all highly concerning,” the litigation states. “It allows Defendant to manipulate prices in real time in order to make as much money as they can on fares for airline tickets which are priced differently for consumers based on their private information, which they did not consent to surrender for this purpose.”

The lawsuit also cites a conversation between JetBlue’s X account and a customer, arguing that it suggests the company may use customer data in connection with ticket pricing.

In the exchange, the customer wrote, “I love flying @JetBlue but a $230 increase on a ticket after one day is crazy. I’m just trying to make it to a funeral.”

“Try clearing your cache and cookies or booking with an incognito window. We’re sorry for your loss,” the JetBlue account replied.

“The picture becomes clearer considering JetBlue itself admitted to using cookie collected data on its booking pages in order to adjust airfare pricing,” the lawsuit states.

In a statement to The Epoch Times, JetBlue Corporate Communications said the company does not use personal information or web browsing history to set individual pricing.

“Fares are determined by demand and seat availability, and all customers have access to the same fares on jetblue.com and our mobile app,” the statement said.

Regarding the X conversation, JetBlue said, “The recent social media reply was simply a mistake from an individual customer service crewmember. The steps the crewmember suggested would not have changed the airfares available for purchase.”

JetBlue is further accused of sharing this information with other third parties, such as FullStory, a digital intelligence firm that captures user interactions such as website page views and clicks.

The airline is accused of allowing these third parties to use tracking technologies to collect information on consumers and use those same technologies to analyze consumer background and behavior to change prices.

The documents state that JetBlue also uses PROS, an AI-based travel tech firm, which sets prices through algorithms, based on consumer data.

“None of this would have been possible had JetBlue not been collecting this data in the first instance: let alone sharing it with third parties like FullStory, PROS, and others,” the lawsuit states.

While “surveillance pricing”—the use of personal data to determine what a consumer is willing to pay—is not illegal in the United States, secretly collecting consumer data without consent is, the lawsuit states.

According to the litigation, members of Congress have also raised concerns about the allegations. A letter from Sen. Ruben Gallego and Rep. Greg Casar asked JetBlue to clarify whether it uses personal data to set fares.

“We are especially concerned that customers could be charged different prices for the same flight based on their need for travel, such as attending a funeral,” the letter stated, according to the lawsuit.

Among the accusations against JetBlue Airways is a violation of the Electronic Communications Privacy Act, which makes it illegal to intentionally intercept any consumer communication or to disclose or use the contents of an unlawfully intercepted communication.

The airline is also accused of violating New York’s deceptive trade practices and unlawful selling laws.

The plaintiff is requesting a jury trial as soon as possible.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/24/2026 - 09:45

China Blacklists EU Defense, Aerospace Firms Over Taiwan Dealings

China has newly placed a slew of EU defense and aerospace firms on a control list, or effectively a new blacklist, reportedly with an eye on Taiwan tensions. It has barred its exporters from supplying dual-use items to seven EU firms, including FN Herstal and Omnipol a.s., according to a statement from the Chinese commerce ministry.

The ministry said the measure targets European defense companies that previously sold arms to Taiwan or maintained links with it, and stated the restrictions will not affect normal economic and trade exchanges with the European Union.

Chinese media file image

Beijing said it will continue working with other countries to safeguard peace and maintain a stable global supply chain, in its usual boilerplate rhetoric directed at the West regarding Taiwan, which China sees as its own.

Other firms named include Hensoldt AG, Excalibur Army, SpaceKnow Inc., VZLU Aerospace, and FN Browning. The companies are mostly based in Czech Republic, Belgium, and Germany.

"The MOFCOM spokesperson emphasized that the legally mandated export control measures target only a small number of EU entities involved in military affairs, entities that have participated in arms sales to Taiwan island or colluded with Taiwan authorities, and the measures only target dual-use items," state-run Global Times described further, in reference to China's Ministry of Commerce. 

"They will not affect normal trade and economic exchanges between China and the EU, and law-abiding EU entities have absolutely nothing to worry about," it added, citing the Commerce spokesperson.

All the while, Beijing has kept up its fiery denunciations, making clear there's "no space" for ambiguity on what China sees as its territory (Taiwan).

Earlier this month, Chinese leader Xi Jinping had welcomed the leader of Taiwan’s main opposition party for a rare direct meeting in the Chinese capital.

The symbolism of the timing couldn't be missed, as Xi invited Nationalist Party Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun to China ahead of the planned big mid-May summit with President Trump in which the Chinese leader could continue a push to dilute Washington's support for Taiwan.

However, the Trump-Xi meeting is still anything but assured as moving forward, given the ongoing Iran war and very uneasy ceasefire with little evidence of an offramp in sight. 

Also, Washington has suddenly this week charged Beijing with stealing US artificial ​intelligence labs' intellectual property on an "industrial scale".

China's Foreign Ministry on Taiwan:

There is but one China in the world. Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory.

No one can stop the eventual reunification of China.

Reunification is presented as a matter of inevitability, not possibility.

Separatist attempts… pic.twitter.com/e0Xdz4bRyh

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) April 22, 2026

The formal memo could upend the May summit before it even gets off the ground: "The US government has information indicating that foreign entities, principally based in China, are engaged in deliberate, industrial-scale campaigns to distil ​US frontier AI systems," Michael Kratsios, director of the White House Office of Science ​and Technology Policy, wrote in a memo shared on social media on ⁠Thursday, per Reuters and FT.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/24/2026 - 09:25

Lilly Slides After New Obesity Pill Prescription Data Disappoints Wall Street

Shares of Eli Lilly & Co. fell in New York premarket trading after new industry prescription data for the drugmaker's blockbuster obesity shot Zepbound and recently approved oral weight-loss pill Foundayo disappointed Wall Street analysts.

Foundayo generated 3,707 prescriptions in its second week, according to new prescription-tracking data from IQVIA cited by RBC Capital Markets analysts. That compares with 18,410 prescriptions for Novo's oral version of Wegovy during its second week after launch, suggesting Lilly's weight-loss drugs are falling behind in the GLP-1 race.

"While we believe comparisons early into launch should be considered immaterial, Foundayo's uptake this week is likely to be received negatively," RBC Capital Markets analyst Trung Huynh wrote in a note to clients earlier.

In a separate note citing the IQVIA data, Cantor analyst Carter Gould said, "We see slower TRx (total prescriptions) growth continuing in the injectable segment across diabetes and obesity, though injectable Wegovy notably grew by 7% week over week."

Gould noted, "While we are cautious to make definitive claims off of one week of launch data from IQVIA, we acknowledge that investors will be scrutinizing the numbers, and believe that Foundayo scripts totaling just 20% of what oral Wegovy achieved during their first full week could cause the stock to be weak today."

Shares of Eli Lilly fell as much as 4% in premarket trading. Through Thursday's close, the stock was down 14.6% for the year.

Danske Bank analysts wrote earlier that Novo might hold the lead in obesity pills because Wegovy is a much better product than competitors.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/24/2026 - 09:15

 

 

The stock market is hitting all-time highs, even as consumer sentiment hits all-time lows.

Is this a paradox?

Hardly.

The confusion stems from people who imagine market prices move off their personal economic experiences (as well as broader consumer sentiment). This is a false belief, easily disproven with a few data points and charts.

“This market makes no sense!”

A similar anomaly occurred during the pandemic. The S&P 500 kept making new all-time highs even as your local economy was faltering. Stores were closing, unemployment was surging, and airlines, hotels, and retailers were going bust.

New all-time highs seemingly ignored all of that. The explanation for this was simple, albeit wonky: Your personal economy is local, visible, and “availability-weighted” while the S&P 500 is global, but more importantly, market-cap weighted. 1

Today’s anomaly is similar.

As it turns out, psychology matters – just not your psychology. When we look at the ownership structure of assets in the United States, we see a very lopsided distribution. The top 1% owns half of all equities in the US; the top 10% owns 87%.

 

How much do you think the sentiment of the bottom 90% of the population, by net worth – they own just 13% of stocks – matters to the stock market?

Not very much.

A related point is the so-called Wealth Effect – it’s mostly nonsense, a case of correlation, not causation.2

The lopsided distribution of equity ownership in the country explains a lot of things; it is especially useful when explaining why sentiment at all-time lows does not seem to have much effect on markets.

What is impacting overall sentiment? Consider:

Inflation had dropped from 9% down to 2.5ish%, mostly under control – until the tariffs began to drive prices higher. 3

Iran War took most Americans by surprise; the reasons were not explained to the country, and so it remains unpopular. (Sending gas prices up $1 a gallon is not popular either).

Home prices remain high, with starter homes out of reach for most young people.

Measurement issues are a very real problem when it comes to identifying sentiment. The same problem exists in polling and other measures of intention and psychology.

The K-Shaped Economy has led to a majority of Americans not feeling optimistic about the current or future economic situations.

That K is a real phenomenon: The wealthy are doing better than ever – their biggest assets are real estate (ATHs), stocks (ATHs) and businesses (awash in PE money) are all doing great; Oh, and thanks for renewing the 2016 TCJA giant tax cuts for another decade.

We see this manifest in spending patterns also. About half of all retail sales are driven by the top 10% of consumers.4

~~~

It’s never quite as clear-cut as some claim – extreme rallying cries are great clickbait but hardly explain the complexities and nuances of the markets.

Yes, markets have been democratized (somewhat) over the past 50 years. But ownership is still primarily held by the wealthy. If you want sentiment to match market prices, try surveying billionaires and millionaires instead of ordinary people…

 

 

Previously:
Revisiting the Wealth Effect (October 23, 2025)

The Probability Machine (August 28, 2025)

The K-Shaped Recovery (September 4, 2020)

Maybe Mr. Market Is Rational After All… (August 7, 2020)

Wealth Effect Rumors Have Been Greatly Exaggerated (November 16, 2010)

Why the Treasury Secretary is Wrong on the Wealth Effect of Stocks vs Real Estate (October 26, 2006

 

 

UPDATE: April 24, 2026  10:00 am  

Latest U Mich Comsumer Sentiment Final April data

Source: U Mich

 

 

 

 

__________

1. The “availability heuristic” is our tendency to use information that comes to mind quickly and easily as opposed to the more nuanced, complex real world.

Wikipedia: “mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a given person’s mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method, or decision. This heuristic, operating on the notion that, if something can be quickly recalled, it must be important, or at least more important than alternative solutions not as readily recalled.”

2. There IS a real wealth effect with housing – the bottom 90% own 87% of the houses – pretty close to what you expect. But even those numbers are skewed; the lower half of households – AKA renters – only own 10% of the housing stock. So the wealth effect of housing real, but somewhat muted to the 100 million owners of their primary residences.

3. The media has a big impact on sentiment, and except for the Artemis II mission, the headlines have been mostly negative. Other factors be weighing on sentiment include Home prices, health care costs, Ukraine War, ICE murders, Epstein files, etc.

4.Bloomberg: “A Moody’s Analytics analysis of Fed data found the top 10% of earners were responsible for about 49.2% of total U.S. consumer spending in Q2 2025, the highest share in data going back to 1989.” (September 16, 2025)

5. Markets trade off of profits and growth which often have nothing to do with your personal economic situation.

 

 

 

The post All Time Highs (SP500) versus All Time Lows (Consumer Sentiment) appeared first on The Big Picture.

Trump Extends Jones Act Waiver For 90 Days To Counter Fuel Price Pressures

On Friday, President Donald Trump extended a temporary waiver of the century-old Jones Act (Merchant Marine Act of 1920) for an additional 90 days. The move allows foreign-flagged vessels to transport fuel, oil, fertilizer, and other essential goods between U.S. ports, aiming to stabilize domestic supply chains and ease price pressures stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and resulting disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

White House Assistant Press Secretary Taylor Rogers announced the extension via social media, stating: “President Trump issued a 90-day extension to the Jones Act waiver. New data compiled since the initial waiver was issued revealed that significantly more supply was able to reach U.S. ports faster. This waiver extension provides both certainty and stability for the U.S. and global economies.” Rogers added that the administration has taken multiple steps to mitigate short-term energy market disruptions and ensure vital products continue flowing.

President Trump issued a 90-day extension to the Jones Act waiver.

New data compiled since the initial waiver was issued revealed that significantly more supply was able to reach U.S. ports faster.

This waiver extension provides both certainty and stability for the U.S. and…

— Taylor Rogers (@TaylorRogers47) April 24, 2026

This builds on the initial 60-day waiver issued on March 17 (effective until mid-May), which White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt described at the time as “another step to mitigate the short-term disruptions to the oil market” amid the conflict.

What Is the Jones Act?

The Jones Act requires that goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried on vessels that are U.S.-built, U.S.-owned, U.S.-flagged, and primarily U.S.-crewed. Enacted in 1920 as Section 27 of the Merchant Marine Act, it was designed to protect and rebuild the American maritime industry following World War I, ensuring a domestic fleet capable of supporting national defense and commerce during emergencies.

Critics argue it limits vessel availability and raises shipping costs, while supporters say it preserves U.S. jobs, shipbuilding capacity, and strategic maritime independence. Waivers are rare and typically granted only for national defense or emergencies, often following requests from the Department of Defense or in response to natural disasters.

Historical precedents include waivers during World War I and II, the Korean War era, Hurricanes Katrina (2005), and other crises like the 2012 Alaska fuel emergency. More recent examples occurred after Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria in 2017.

The waiver stems directly from the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran that began on February 28, 2026. U.S. and Israeli strikes targeted Iranian leadership, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompting Iranian retaliation with missile and drone attacks across the Middle East, strikes on U.S. bases and allies, and - critically - the closure (or severe restriction) of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20-25% of global seaborne oil and significant liquefied natural gas passes, became a major chokepoint. Iran’s actions, combined with a subsequent U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports starting in mid-April, led to a collapse in tanker traffic (down over 90% at times), global oil price spikes (from ~$70/barrel pre-war to averages above $100 in March), fuel shortages in parts of Asia, and ripple effects on fertilizer and agricultural supply chains worldwide.

These disruptions exacerbated domestic U.S. fuel price pressures, prompting the administration to act on the Jones Act to reroute more Gulf Coast oil and refined products to other U.S. coasts via foreign tankers.

Impacts and Early Data

Early results from the initial 60-day waiver appear positive according to the White House. Officials report that foreign tankers moved approximately 9 million barrels of oil, boosting effective domestic shipping capacity by about 70% and accelerating deliveries to ports and refineries. Rogers and other spokespeople emphasized that “the data reveals more supply has reached U.S. ports faster,” helping mitigate cost increases.

The 90-day extension (expected to run from mid-May into mid-August) aims to provide longer-term certainty as the Iran conflict and Hormuz situation remain fluid, with fragile ceasefires and ongoing diplomatic efforts (including talks in Pakistan) showing limited progress.

The decision has drawn sharp criticism from the U.S. maritime industry. The American Maritime Partnership called the extension of what it termed a “historically long and ineffective” waiver “an affront to U.S. workers,” arguing it undermines domestic shipbuilding and seafarer jobs.

Proponents of the Jones Act maintain that repeated waivers erode the law’s protective intent, while energy and logistics groups see the temporary relief as a pragmatic response to an extraordinary crisis.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/24/2026 - 08:55

S&P Futures Jump To Record, Oil Tumbles On Report Iran Foreign Minister Going To Pakistan

US equity futures jumped to a new all time high, reversing modest overnight losses, and oil tumbled to session lows on reports that Iran is sending a delegation to Pakistan today for talks, boosting hopes of ceasefire extension or more. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi is expected to arrive in Islamabad at 22:00 local time (1:00pm ET), the NY Post reports. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rallied as much a 0.6% to a new all time high of 7,190, reversing a modest loss in overnight trading as Brent tumbled from $107 to around $104 on the report. Tech shares rallied on the back of strong results from Intel and SAP SE, with the Nasdaq 100 up 1.3% and on track for a fourth straight weekly gain with most Mag 7 stocks trading higher. INTC added +29% amid surprises in both earnings and sales across all major businesses; the move will almost certainly extend the gains for semiconductor stocks to 18 straight days. The dollar slid 0.2%.  Brent erased gains to fall 1.2% to below $104 a barrel while WTI dropped $1.2 and is now at $94.68 after trading as high as $98 earlier. Treasuries advanced, with the 10-year yield down two basis points at 4.31%. Metals are mixed, gold rebound above $4700; ags are higher. Today's macro data include the final UMich consumer sentiment survey. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Microsoft +1.2%, Amazon +0.9%, Alphabet +0.6%, Meta +0.6%, Apple -0.1%, Tesla +0.9%)

• Comfort Systems USA (FIX) climbs 7% after the HVAC company reported revenue that beat estimates.
• Coursera (COUR) falls 10% after the online education company’s first-quarter profit missed the average analyst estimate and the midpoint of its full-year revenue forecast also undershot expectations.
• Edwards Lifesciences (EW) gains 2% after the medical devices firm reported a first quarter adjusted earnings per share beat, and boosted its sales forecast for the full year.
• HCA Healthcare (HCA) falls 7% after the health-care services company reported net income for the first quarter that met the average analyst estimate.
• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) climbs 4% after JPMorgan initiated the stock with an overweight rating, citing improving vitals for the telehealth firm.
• Intel (INTC) shares are up 27% — and on track to close at an all-time high if gains hold through regular trading — after the chipmaker delivered a blockbuster sales forecast.
• MaxLinear (MXL) jumps 43% after the semiconductor company’s first-quarter results and second-quarter revenue forecast were both better than expected.
• Organon & Co. (OGN) climbs 21% after the Economic Times reported that Sun Pharma is planning to submit a binding offer of $13 billion to acquire the US-based pharmaceutical company.
• Procter & Gamble (PG) gains 3% after the consumer-products maker reported stronger-than-expected results for its latest quarter, driven by growth in the beauty category.
• SLB (SLB) falls 3% after the oilfield services company reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that matched the average analyst estimate. The company also agreed to buy S&P Global Geoscience & Petroleum Engineering portfolio.
• World Kinect Corp. (WKC) rises 22% after the fuel-services company reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.

In corporate news, DeepSeek rolled out preview versions of a new flagship AI model a year after upending Silicon Valley, calling it the most powerful open-source platform in a challenge to rivals from OpenAI to Anthropic. Cognition AI is said to be in early talks to raise a new round of funding that would more than double its valuation to $25 billion. Mercedes-Benz is assessing potential cybersecurity risks linked to Anthropic’s Mythos model, signaling that concerns over threats from AI bots are spreading beyond the financial sector into the industrial economy. SoftBank plans to transform part of its Osaka factory into a major battery production line to power its AI data centers. President Trump said he is considering having the US purchase Spirit Aviation, saying it could be a potentially good investment for the federal government. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby on deals, fuel price spikes and turf wars is the subject of today’s

Sentiment was boosted this morning after Pakistani officials familiar with the matter said Iran’s foreign minister was expected in Islamabad on Friday (around 10pm local time), with a second round of talks between Tehran and Washington expected. S&P futures jumped to a record high just under 7,200 as Brent erased gains to fall 1.2% to below $104 a barrel; the dollar slid 0.2%. Treasuries advanced, with the 10-year yield down two basis points at 4.31%. Still, we've seen such premature hope fizzle before; meanwhile in the Middle East, a US-sanctioned supertanker laden with Iranian oil appeared to be attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, with traffic through the waterway otherwise at a virtual standstill. As usual, traders will watch for headlines and signals from the US and Iran, along with shipping flows, for clues on energy supply risks, with any Strait of Hormuz escalation likely to keep oil elevated.

Tech shares rallied on the back of strong results from Intel and SAP, with the Nasdaq 100 on track for a fourth straight weekly gain. Intel surged 29% in premarket trading on a blockbuster sales forecast. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing jumped 5% in Taipei after regulators eased limits on single-stock fund holdings.

“Those who called the end of the AI trade made a big mistake, as we can see looking at the semiconductor space,” said Mabrouk Chetouane, head of global market strategy at Natixis Investment Managers. “The earnings growth is just astounding. It’s a sweet spot where the offer for chips can’t meet the demand.”

Barclays strategist Emmanuel Cau notes the “renewed AI frenzy has seen semis stocks surging, widening further the US/Asia vs Europe performance gap.” US equity strength is supported by technical factors, Bloomberg notes as it echoes what we have been saying since late March, adding that gross exposure is high, net exposure isn’t, and there’s still cash that needs to be put to work. Discretionary managers have benchmarks to beat and higher dispersion shows the earning season is leading to a resumption of micro over macro.

Resurgent optimism over the economic potential of artificial intelligence has powered semiconductor manufacturers to an unprecedented 17-day rally. Investors also see the sector as at little risk of spillover from the Iranian war, with corporate profits and outlooks outpacing expectations in most instances.

“One takeaway from this earnings season is that the US leadership is back because of its dominance in tech, and semiconductors notably,” said David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de l’Echiquier in Paris. “Investors are now focusing more on earnings than geopolitics and taking the view that eventually a peace deal will occur.”

Equity and bond funds attracted the bulk of inflows this week, with stocks and IG bonds already tracking record annualized inflows, Bank of America says. Equity funds drew $25.9 billion, with US inflows at $18 billion in the week through April 22, according to BofA citing EPFR Global data. 

In Europe, SAP climbed 5.5% after reporting cloud backlog growth that reassured investors amid AI disruption concerns. Still, the Stoxx 600 fell 0.1%, with sectors such as autos and retail hit on concern that the war in the Middle East will have a long-lasting impact on consumer  sentiment; the energy sector gained. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• SAP shares rise as much as 7.3% after reporting current cloud backlog — a crucial indicator for future revenue to be booked — maintained a 25% growth rate on constant-currency terms in 1Q, beating expectations.
• Volvo shares rise as much as 2.6% as the Swedish firm raised its outlook for the European truck market after orders increased. Morgan Stanley calls the results strong and stable.
• Telia gains as much as 3.9% after the Swedish telecommunications group reported earnings. Analysts say the mostly in-line print is a good start to the year, noting a slight beat to Ebitda as a key positive.
• Siemens Energy rises as much as 4.9%, setting a new record high, after the firm saw significant order beats for both its Gas Services and Grid Technologies divisions in the second quarter and increased its outlook for the full year.
• Adyen shares rise as much as 5.3% after agreeing a deal to buy Talon.One in its first ever acquisition. The deal, while small to Adyen’s scale, is a good starting point for the payments firm and should boost its unified commerce offerings, according to analysts.
• Coloplast shares extend losing streak into a fifth day, dropping as much as 3.5% to the lowest since February 2014, after issuing a profit warning for the full year.
• Electrolux falls as much as 25%, the most on record, after the Swedish home appliances group reported significantly weaker-than-expected 1Q figures, driven by poor performance in its key North American market.
• MTU Aero Engines shares fall as much as 4.8% as UBS downgrades the German aircraft engine manufacturer to sell from neutral, citing exposure to a hard landing as the aftermarket cycle turns.
• Safran shares fall as much as 3.6% as Oxcap lowers its recommendation on the aerospace and defense firm to equal-weight from overweight, citing concerns around global commercial flight growth.
• Mondi shares fall as much as 8.9% as higher costs and lower prices hit the packaging company’s first-quarter earnings.

Asian stocks edged higher as tech stock gains outweighed concerns over the progress of US-Iran peace talks and shipping flows in the Strait of Hormuz. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.5% after swinging between gains and losses Friday. The gauge is headed for its third week of gains, the longest streak since the Iran war started. Taiwan’s Taiex index was the best performer in the region, with TSMC leading gains to a fresh record, after the island’s financial regulator eased limits on single-stock fund holdings. Tech stocks were also buoyed by Intel’s stronger-than-expected sales outlook. Meanwhile, equity benchmarks in China, India and Indonesia slipped. Despite mild gains on Friday, risk appetite remains muted into the weekend as investors await further signals from Washington and Tehran for clues on energy supply risks. While elevated oil prices remain a key macro risk, traders are looking for selective opportunities in the artificial intelligence theme. In Japan, investors will be watching out for next week’s Bank of Japan meeting. The BOJ is leaning toward leaving its policy rate unchanged on April 28 amid lingering uncertainty over the war in Iran, according to people familiar with the matter.

Brent erased gains to fall 1.2% to below $104 a barrel. A Pakistani official familiar with the matter said Iran’s foreign minister was expected in Islamabad on Friday, with a second round of talks between Tehran and Washington expected. The dollar slid 0.2%.

In rates, treasuries advanced, with the 10-year yield down two basis points at 4.31%. European bonds underperform over the early London session, led by gilts following stronger-than-expected UK retail sales data. UK yields lead European bond weakness, trading cheaper by up to 5bp across front-end of the curve

US economic data calendar slate includes April University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini 0.5%,
• Nasdaq 100 mini +1.3%,
• Russell 2000 mini 0.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.1%,
• DAX -0.1%,
• CAC 40 -0.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield +0.4 basis points at 4.31%
• VIX 18.69, -0.70 points
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2%
• euro little changed at $1.1685
• WTI crude -1.4% at $94.5/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Iran Foreign Minister to Visit Islamabad Friday, Pakistan Says; Oil Dips After Pakistan Says US-Iran Peace Talks Are Expected: BBG
• US President Trump posted that the meeting between Israel and Lebanon went well, the US is to work with Lebanon to protect itself from Hezbollah and that the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is to be extended by three weeks: RTRS
• Israeli media: A limited operation against Iran may be carried out to avoid a prolonged war: Al Arabiya 
• An Iranian Ship Tried to Slip Past the Blockade. A U.S. Destroyer Chased It Down: WSJ
• Tanker Helga arrives at Iraq’s Basra offshore terminal to load 2mln BPD of crude, sources say; Helga is the second tanker to reach Basra terminals since the Hormuz closure.
• U.S. Soldier Charged With Using Classified Information to Bet on Maduro’s Ouster: WSJ
• Pentagon email floats suspending Spain from NATO, other steps over Iran rift: RTRS
• China to Curb US Investment in Tech Companies After Meta Deal: BBG
• Intel Shares Set to Eclipse Dot-Com Peak on Sales Forecast
• Conservative super PAC threatens to unseat Republicans over immigration bill: RTRS
• Hedge Fund at Center of Avis Squeeze Added to Stake Before Rout: BBG
• Citadel Sends Warning Shot to NYC After Mamdani Jabs Griffin: WSJ
• Meta Signs Multibillion-Dollar Deal With Amazon to Use Its CPU Chips for AI: WSJ
• Lilly’s New Obesity Pill Off to Slow Start in Race With Novo: BBG
• Oracle’s Deluge of AI Debt Pushes Wall Street to the Limit: WSJ
• Orban’s Son-in-Law Waits Out Hungarian Wealth Probe in New York: BBG
• Chinese Securities Regulator said that China is to allow qualified foreign investors to trade treasury futures from April 24, 2026, for hedging purposes only.
• US official said Russia is to be included in G20 summit invitations

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly in the red, ex. Nikkei 225, as bourses caught up to the selloff seen stateside, as risk-off flows dominated the tape after the reports that Israel is on high alert in anticipation of a possible renewed war this weekend. ASX 200 slipped further below the 8,800 handle, as losses in IT offset the gains made by Energy names. Nikkei 225 outperformed, supported by the tech sector as chips benefitted from Intel’s earnings (see more below). Ibiden, one of Japan’s biggest electronics companies, hit a new ATH while Canon fell after cutting its FY profitability guidance. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded with the biggest losses, albeit just slightly, after a flurry of earnings. China Telecom reported Q1 net that fell by 17% Y/Y while autos underperformed.

Top Asian News

• Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has produced the first working single-digit nanometer DRAM working die, TheLec reported citing sources; Co. intends to adjust processing conditions based on this.
• Nomura Holdings (8604 JT) FY25/26 (JPY): Net 362.1bln (prev. 340.7bln Y/Y), Pretax 539.8bln (prev. 432.1bln Y/Y), Revenue 4.76tln (prev. 4.74tln Y/Y). Cuts dividend.
• Hyundai Steel (004020 KS) Q1 (KRW) oper. profit 15.7bln (prev. loss 19.0bln Y/Y).
• Kia Motor (000270 KS) Q1 2026 (KRW): Net 1.83tln (exp. 1.93tln), Operating Profit 2.21tln (exp. 2.3tln), Revenue 29.5tln (exp. 29.3tln).
• Mercuria is to take a 25% stake in an aluminium smelter, as well as hunt for copper mining investments, the FT reported.
• Taiwan regulator is to increase the equity exposure limit per stock to 25% from 10% for funds and ETFs.
• Renesas (6723 JT) Q1 2026 (JPY): Revenue 380.3bln (prev. 308.8bln Y/Y) , Operating profit 90.6bln (prev. 21.5bln Y/Y).

European bourses started the European session with broad based losses, continuing the downbeat mood seen across APAC trade. From an index perspective, the IBEX 35 (-1.3%) lags peers, whilst the AEX (-0.1%) fares a bit better vs peers. European sectors hold a strong negative bias. Energy leads, buoyed by strength in underlying oil prices. Also for the sector, Siemens Energy  (+2.4%) gains post-earnings after it reported a mixed set of results, but raised its FY outlook; elsewhere, Eni (+1%) beat on its Adj. EBIT metric, and announced a 90% increase to its share buyback, citing an upbeat commodities outlook. Tech and Telecoms complete the top three. The Tech sector has been boosted today by post-earnings strength in SAP (+6.4%). The Co. reported better-than-expected operating profit and revenue, with cloud metrics also topping expectations. It also said it will buy back EUR 10bln of shares. To the bottom of the pile resides Autos, Basic Resources and Retail. The autos sector is underperforming this morning with seemingly broad-based losses; Volvo (+1%) reported Q1 metrics today, where its metrics were mixed, but ultimately indicating resilience amidst challenges.

Top European News

• German Ifo Current Conditions (Apr) 85.4 vs. Exp. 85.5 (Prev. 86.7, Low. 83, High. 87).
• German Ifo Business Climate (Apr) 84.4 vs. Exp. 84.8 (Prev. 86.4, Low. 83.7, High. 87.5).
• German Ifo Expectations (Apr) 83.3 vs. Exp. 83.9 (Prev. 86.0, Low. 82, High. 87.3).
• Spanish PPI YoY (Mar) Y/Y 3.4% (Prev. -7%).
• French Consumer Confidence (Apr) 84 vs. Exp. 88 (Prev. 89, Low. 87, High. 89).
• Hungarian Unemployment Rate (Mar) 4.7% (Prev. 4.9%).
• UK Retail Sales YoY (Mar) Y/Y 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 2.5%, Low. 0.8%, High. 2.2%).
• UK Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY (Mar) Y/Y 1.7% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 3.4%, Low. 1.5%, High. 2.5%).
• UK Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM (Mar) M/M 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.4%, Low. -0.5%, High. 0.6%).
• UK Retail Sales MoM (Mar) M/M 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. -0.4%, Low. -0.8%, High. 1.8%).

Trade/Tariffs

• China reportedly to add seven EU companies to export control list, according to reported. Hensoldt (HAG GY) was added.
• Canada is reportedly to seek talks with the EU regarding access to ‘Made in Europe’ scheme, according to FT.
• China's Commerce Minister met with the President of European Automotive Manufacturers Association to talk about the China-EU auto industry cooperation and EU trade restrictions. Commerce Minister stated that China will firmly safeguard Chinese firm's rights.
• US President Trump tells the Telegraph that the US will retaliate if the UK continues to target companies such as Apple (AAPL) , Google (GOOGL) and Meta (META) through the digital services tax.
• US President Trump said the US will put a tariff on the UK if the digital service tax is not dropped.

FX

• FX price action is lacklustre on the final trading day of the week. DXY leads marginally, while CHF and JPY are slightly lower.
• DXY trades tentatively and broadly in tandem with oil prices. A light calendar ahead with the Fed on blackout ahead of next week's meeting and only UoM final data on the docket. USD-specific news light, though the Japanese Finance Minister said overnight there were no plans to change currency swap lines with the US. DXY still remains supported above 100 and 200 DMAs at 98.50; upside resistance is 98.90, which marks the session high.
• SNB Chairman Schlegel was on the wires a couple of times. He said they have "unrestricted" room for manoeuvre when it comes to the policy rate and FX intervention - Vice Chair Martin also echoed these remarks. EUR/CHF is unchanged on the session; it attempted to approach 0.92, but the move faltered at 0.9199.
• Katayama is also on the wires, she said "will take decisive action on speculative activity", JPY unchanged, in a signal that markets are becoming comfortable with the Finance Minister's threats. USD/JPY unchanged, looks at 160 to the upside. BoJ rate decision next week, likely to remain on hold, with all eyes on Governor Ueda's tone at the presser.
• GBP shrugged off strong UK Retail Sales for March, as it does not change the narrative into next week's BoE, where a hold is the base case. The data showed upside was driven by an increase in fuel sales, with retailers reporting that motorists were filling their tanks when buying following the start of the Middle East conflict. Online sales saw upside and are potentially indicative of a robust spring sale period. However, the core figures were in line/softer-than-expected, and potentially point to some greater-than-expected caution among consumers during the early stages of the Middle East conflict. EUR/GBP and Cable both unchanged, the former on a 0.8670 handle.

Fixed Income

• A modestly bearish session for fixed benchmarks, initial action a function of the modest and since increasing energy upside as we count down to and participants position into a potentially risk-packed weekend.
• Amidst this, USTs post downside of a handful of ticks in a thin 110-30 to 111-03 band. Ahead, the US docket is light, and we look to next week's FOMC.
• Bunds post slightly larger downside, perhaps as Dutch TTF has been leading oil benchmarks throughout the morning. Currently, in the red by c. 30 ticks but also in a relatively narrow 125.20-44 band. The European docket is light, aside from Italian supply (should be well received, particularly after the sizeable demand at last week's syndications); as such, price action will likely be dictated by geopolitical developments.
• Gilts gapped lower at the open, acknowledging the pressure in fixed peers seen late-Thursday. Opened at 87.10, lower by 41 ticks. Thereafter, slipped another 28 to an 86.82 low and has held there since; the second bout of pressure spurred by further energy upside and a hawkish BoE DMP. The DMP spurred end-2026 BoE pricing to 59bps of tightening from c. 54bps this morning and significantly above the 23bps implied this time last week.
• To recap the day's data. UK Retail Sales were strong on a headline level but in-line/soft on a core basis, with consumer motor fuel purchases driving the headline, no implications for the BoE next week (hold expected, guidance in focus). Thereafter, Germany's Ifo was soft across the board, with no real follow-through to EGBs.
• Italy sold EUR 2.5bln vs exp. EUR 2.25-2.5bln 2.20% 2028 BTP Short Term: b/c 1.63x (prev. 1.78x) & average yield 2.80% (prev. 2.89%).
• Australia sold AUD 1bln vs exp. AUD 1bln 2.50% 2030 AGB: b/c 3.82x (prev. 3.44x), average yield 4.6947% (prev. 4.2888%).

Commodities

• In geopolitics, fresh updates have been light as focus remains on the state of the US-Iran ceasefire and talks. The week ahead centres on four key watchpoints. First, the Strait of Hormuz “red line”: President Trump has warned the US Navy could actively engage IRGC vessels suspected of laying mines or interfering with traffic, shifting from shadowing to potential direct strikes, particularly after an IRGC-escorted Iranian ship defied the blockade. Second, the nuclear deal standoff: Washington is pushing for a comprehensive deal, while Tehran insists the nuclear file is not part of the current talks, raising the risk that negotiations collapse if neither side compromises on uranium enrichment. Third, internal dynamics in Tehran: reports of leadership friction and IRGC influence over the negotiating team point to possible policy inconsistency or hardline escalation. Fourth, ceasefire fragility: despite the extended Israel-Lebanon truce, sporadic clashes and reported drone activity underline how easily a trigger event could occur.
• Oil rose for a fifth day as limited US-Iran progress towards resumed de-escalation talks kept supply concerns elevated; Brent climbed above USD 106/bbl (vs weekly lows of ~ USD 91/bbl) and is set for its biggest weekly gain since the war’s first week. WTI June, however, remains sub-USD 100/bbl. Brent currently trades in a daily range between 105.02-107.40/bbl while WTI resides in a USD 95.55-97.85/bbl range.
• Gold edged lower, below USD 4,970/oz, with investors weighing whether higher crude prices from the US-Iran conflict could keep inflation and interest rates elevated. XAU/USD resides in a USD 4,658.03-4,711.23/oz range at the time of writing.
• Copper heads for a weekly loss, with the broader base metals complex also mostly under pressure, as uncertainty over the Middle East war clouds the global growth outlook, while the US and Iran show little sign of returning to talks after Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely, and the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 13,215.58- 13,322.33/t. LME aluminium spread experiences the largest backwardation since 2024.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said she is urging the cabinet to seek new sources for oil imports.
• Union Spokesperson said workers at Australia's INPEX (1605 JT) LNG plant vote in favour of strikes.
• EU leaders have tasked Finance Ministers to come up with new measures to deal with potential energy shortages after assessing that current proposals were not enough, Bloomberg reported, citing sources.
• Japan's METI said Japan is to release 5.8mln kL of national oil reserves, starting May 1st.
• Imports of Russian fuel oil to Singapore has jumped with volume in April already more than double the average monthly amount in 2025, according to FT citing Vortexa data.
• The fire at Russia's Tuapse oil terminal is under control.
• US President Trump said that the US does not have an oil shortage and are taking millions of barrels of oil from Venezuela. Have a great relationship with Venezuela.
• CME cuts initial margin on its Comex 100 gold futures to 6% from 7% and Comex 5000 silver futures to 11% from 14%.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US President Trump posted that the meeting between Israel and Lebanon went well, the US is to work with Lebanon to protect itself from Hezbollah and that the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is to be extended by three weeks.
• US President Trump said nobody is trying to get through the US blockade.
• US President Trump said the Israel-Lebanon talks in the Oval Office went well and it would be great to resolve simultaneously with Iran. Looking forward to the next meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu. Great chance of peace between Israel and Lebanon this year. Everyone seems united against Hezbollah. Israel-Lebanon peace should be an easy one. Israel will have to defend itself if they are shot at. Israel will be surgical in their self-defence. Iran has to cut its Hezbollah funding.
• Tanker Helga arrives at Iraq’s Basra offshore terminal to load 2mln BPD of crude, sources say; Helga is the second tanker to reach Basra terminals since the Hormuz closure.
• "Israeli media: A limited operation against Iran may be carried out to avoid a prolonged war", Al Arabiya reported.
• Pakistani official noted of a state of uncertainty regarding the second round of talks, "and we await Iran's response", Al Arabiya reported.
• Israel again attacks southern Lebanon, claiming retaliation for overnight rocket fire, Al Jazeera reported.
• Lebanese press Al-Jumhuriya noted of accelerated diplomatic efforts toward a Lebanon–Israel non-aggression agreement, driven by the US–Saudi–Egypt initiative, Journalist Kais reported. Plan revives idea of containing (not dismantling) Hezbollah’s weapons. Key proposed terms:. Israel withdraws to ceasefire line. Lebanese army deploys in south. Hezbollah moves north of Litani River. Start of weapons containment plan. Border disputes (Blue Line) adjusted. Prisoner releases, return of civilians, reconstruction. Deal would have international (especially US) guarantees. Coordination includes Iran to ensure Shiite/Hezbollah involvement. Parallel effort to resolve internal Lebanese political divisions. Saudi envoy pushing for meeting of Lebanon’s top leaders to create a unified position.
• "Iranian Foreign Ministry: Araqchi held two called with the Pakistani army chief and foreign minister to discuss a ceasefire.", Al Araby reported.
• Iranian Vice President said any attack on oil wells will be met with strikes on attackers’ oil facilities; said it will be beyond “eye for an eye” response, Mehr News reported.
• Senior IRGC Commander said Tehran is secure and its borders are stronger than before, Press TV reported.
• The US has put a USD 10mln bounty on the leader of the Iran-backed Shiite militia group in Iraq, CBS reported.
• Lebanese media reported that Israel have conducted airstrikes on the town of Al-Qasir in southern Lebanon a few hours after US President Trump announced the 3-week ceasefire extension, IRIB reported.
• Israel's ambassador to the UN said the extension of the Lebanon ceasefire is not 100% certain and that Israel is forced to answer every time a threat is detected, Tasnim reported citing CNN.
• US military are developing plans to target Iran's Hormuz defences if the ceasefire fails, CNN reported.
• Israel-Lebanon talks have gotten underway in the White House, according to reported.
• Hezbollah said it has launched rockets at Israel's Shtula region in response to Israel violating ceasefire and targeting towns in southern Lebanon.
• Israeli military said several launches crossed from Lebanon towards Israel were intercepted.
• An internal Pentagon email explores options to punishing NATO allies that the US believes failed to support the US operations against Iran, according to a US official. Options include:. Suspending Spain from NATO. Reviewing the US position on British claims to the Falkland Islands. Suspending difficult countries from important or prestigious positions at NATO.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian authorities say a foreign-flagged ship bound for Odesa was attacked by Russian drones.
• Imports of Russian fuel oil to Singapore has jumped with volume in April already more than double the average monthly amount in 2025, according to FT citing Vortexa data.
• The fire at Russia's Tuapse oil terminal is under control.
• US official said Russia is to be included in G20 summit invitations.

US Event Calendar

Markets are entering the final day of the trading week in a cautious mood as US-Iran tensions show no signs of easing while the Strait of Hormuz remains essentially closed. Ahead of the weekend, there have been no signs of further talks, with Trump saying the “I don’t want to rush myself” when it comes to making a deal, while also claiming that “whatever I’m doing, it seems to be working very well”. Meanwhile, we saw Iran’s President, Foreign Minister and Parliamentary Speaker share similar messages of regime “unity” in short succession last night, after Trump posts claimed “infighting” between “Hardliners” and “Moderates” in Iran. The rhetoric had also leant in an escalatory direction earlier yesterday, with Trump posting that he’d ordered the US Navy to shoot boats placing mines in the Strait of Hormuz. So all that has left lingering uncertainty, even as Israel and Lebanon have agreed overnight to extend their ceasefire by three weeks according to the White House.

From a market perspective, that means oil prices continue to grind higher, with Brent crude rising +3.10% yesterday and another +0.97% overnight to $106.09/bbl. Unlike many recent sessions, this also weighed on US equities. The S&P 500 spiked lower just after Europe went home amid headlines that air defences had been activated in Tehran, before partially recovering to -0.41% by the close, with reports that this had been due to small drones rather than signifying a collapse of the ceasefire. Still, with the cacophony of headlines showing no signs of de-escalation, oil prices held onto most of their gains, while both 2yr (+3.6bps) and 10yr (+2.3bps) US Treasury yields closed higher on the day. We have seen some stablisation of these moves overnight, with both S&P 500 futures (-0.06%) and 10yr Treasury yields little changed.
In Asia, the Hang Seng (-0.20%), the CSI (-0.85%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.56%), the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.28%), and the KOSPI (-0.36%) are all in negative territory. In contrast, the Nikkei (+0.61%) is being boosted by tech, even in light of slightly stronger inflation figures from Japan. Core consumer prices increased by +1.8% year-on-year in March, up from +1.6% in February, a tenth ahead of expectations. Headline and core-core were inline. The BOJ is scheduled to convene next week, where it is anticipated that it will maintain current interest rates, while also signaling a potential readiness to raise rates.

Back to yesterday and oil's gains extended across the futures curve. The 6-month Brent future (+2.34%) reached a 3-week high of $86.74/bbl as investors geared up to facing a more prolonged period of high energy prices. The pressures were even more visible in downstream products with US wholesale gasoline prices (+3.10%) reaching their highest level since 2022. This was echoed in near-term inflation swaps as well, with the 1yr Eurozone inflation swap (+16.2bps) surging up to 3.35%, whilst the 1yr US inflation swap (+8.6bps) rose to 3.32%, with the latter now only 6-7bps below its high on March 20.  

The exception to the overall cautious mood were semiconductor stocks. The Philadelphia semiconductor index (+1.71%) posted a record 17th consecutive advance, having now risen by an astonishing +41.1% over that run. See my CoTD yesterday here for more. The positive mood for chipmakers continued overnight after Intel’s Q2 sales guidance came in well above expectations ($13.8-14.8bn vs $13bn expected). Its shares surged by +20% in after-hours trading, helping NASDAQ futures to a +0.39% gain overnight.

The broader tech mood had been more downbeat in yesterday’s session, with the NASDAQ (-0.89%) underperforming and the Mag-7 (-1.56%) posting its biggest decline in four weeks. Meta (-2.31%) lost ground after announcing plans to cut 10% of its workforce, while Microsoft (-3.97%) announced voluntary buyouts that could cover up to 7% of its employees. There is a sense that these job losses are there to offset huge capex spend. Tesla slid by -3.56% after its results the previous evening.

In terms of yesterday’s other news, we saw a notable divergence between the US and European data with the release of the flash April PMIs. Strong US data raised hopes that the economy’s resilience was holding up into Q2. In fact, the flash composite PMI for April moved up to 52.0 (vs. 50.6 expected), with both the manufacturing (54.0) and services prints (51.3) coming in above expectations, while the subindices also pointed to rising price pressures. This saw markets dial down remaining Fed cut pricing, with a cut by year-end now only 20% priced, down from 30% at Wednesday’s close. 

Over in Europe, the PMIs told quite a different story, with clear weakness across much of the continent. Most notably, the Euro Area composite PMI fell to 48.6 (vs. 50.1 expected), which was a 17-month low and beneath the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. So that confirmed fears that Europe was headed for a more obvious stagflationary hit from the rise in energy prices. Indeed, that showed up in the price components, with input prices rising at their fastest since December 2022, and output prices at their fastest since March 2023.  

Given the stagflationary implications of the PMIs, European assets struggled to gain much traction yesterday before the US sell-off. Moreover, investors priced in a growing chance of ECB hikes to deal with the price shock, and the amount of hikes priced by December was up +10.5bps on the day to 59bps. Nevertheless, sovereign bond yields were broadly steady as higher inflation expectations were offset by lower real rates on the back of the growth fears. So 10yr bund yields were unchanged at 3.01%, while 10yr OATs (+0.7bps) and BTPs (+1.3bps) saw slight increases. Otherwise, the STOXX 600 (+0.05%) was basically flat, finally stabilising after three consecutive declines.
Here in the UK, gilts continued to underperform yesterday, with the 10yr yield (+3.0bps) up to 4.94%, whilst the 30yr yield (+3.6bps) hit a 7-month high of 5.61%. In part, that came as the political speculation around PM Starmer’s position continued to swirl. But the UK also saw a clear outperformance in the PMIs, with an unexpected increase that went against the pattern in the Euro Area. For instance, the composite PMI was up to 52.0 (vs. 49.8 expected), with a rise in both manufacturing (53.6) and services (52.0). So that added to expectations that the Bank of England would hike rates this year, with markets now pricing in 55bps of hikes by the December meeting, up +4.3bps on the day.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the Ifo Institute’s business climate indicator from Germany, and in the US there’s the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for April. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Panetta, whilst today’s earnings include Procter & Gamble.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/24/2026 - 08:34

House Panel Orders Southern Poverty Law Center To Turn Over Communications With Biden DOJ

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) on April 23 gave the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) until April 30 to hand over documents regarding its relationship with the Biden–Harris Department of Justice (DOJ) and the FBI, as part of a federal prosecution of the civil rights group.

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) during a hearing on Capitol Hill on March 4, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

In a letter to Bryan Fair, SPLC interim president and chief executive, Jordan wrote that “publicly available documents revealed how the Justice Department partnered closely with the SPLC during the Biden-Harris Administration, including scheduling regular meetings, giving the SPLC early access to federal law-enforcement data, and allowing SPLC employees to train federal prosecutors.” The letter was also posted to social media.

The chairman’s demand came two days after a grand jury in Montgomery, Alabama, returned an 11-count indictment alleging the SPLC had committed wire fraud, made false statements to a federally insured bank, and conspired to conceal money laundering.

The indictment accuses the SPLC of funneling more than $3 million between 2014 and 2023 to no fewer than eight paid informants in violent racist organizations, including the Ku Klux Klan, the United Klans of America, the National Socialist Movement, the National Socialist Party of America, the American Front, and the Aryan Nations-aligned Sadistic Souls Motorcycle Club. Prosecutors said the group set up accounts under fictitious names, such as “Fox Photography” and “Rare Books Warehouse” among them, to hide where the money came from.

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche alleged that the SPLC had used “paid operatives within extremist circles to incite and intensify racial tensions,” arguing the civil rights organization “fostered the very threats it claimed to fight.”

Jordan’s letter tells Fair that the committee is investigating whether the SPLC shaped federal policy during the Biden–Harris years, highlighting a now-withdrawn 2023 FBI Richmond Field Office memorandum, dating back to when Christopher Wray led the bureau, that treated “radical-traditionalist” Catholics as given to violence, citing the SPLC as a source.

The chairman requested that the organization provide by next Thursday all communications with any “field source,” or informant, dating to Jan. 1, 2017. He also asked for communications referring to fictitious entities used to pay any “field source,” also dating to 2017, as well as communications with the DOJ, FBI, and other federal agencies dating to Jan. 20, 2021.

Fair said that the organization was “outraged by the false accusations” and will “vigorously defend ourselves, our staff, and our work.” He noted the informant program, since shut down, “saved lives.”

“Taking on violent hate and extremist groups is among the most dangerous work there is, and we believe it is also among the most important work we do,” Fair said.

The SPLC disclosed the criminal probe ahead of the indictment, noting it faced a DOJ investigation over its use of “paid confidential informants” to infiltrate so-called extremist organizations. The indictment covers almost a decade of alleged misconduct and claims that donors were never told the real reason behind the solicited funds.

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Tyler Durden Fri, 04/24/2026 - 08:15

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

• It Was on Your Table Every Morning Growing Up. It’s Dying Before Our Eyes: Florida’s orange industry — long a breakfast-table staple — is collapsing, and no one in the state wants to face it.  Deep in desiccated Southern groves, the powerhouse of American citrus is suffering a brutal, unrelenting decline. No one wants to face what that means. Who Killed the Florida Orange? (Slate)

• Private Assets May Be Coming to Your 401(k). You Should Know the Risks.: Tara Siegel Bernard on alternative investments — private credit, private equity, crypto — about to start appearing on 401(k) menus, with risks that aren’t fully priced in.  (New York Times) see also U.S. Officials Try to Get a Grip on Risks Bubbling Inside Private Credit: The SEC is sending sweeping information requests to private-credit managers, targeting valuations, loan selection, and other practices. (Wall Street Journal)

• The Billionaire Math Geek Who Turned AI Into a Money-Printing Machine: Alex Gerko’s XTX Markets uses Nvidia chips and deep learning to forecast price moves — and print money at scale. (Wall Street Journal)

• 6 Tax Tips You Should Start Thinking About Now: Simple questions to ask year-round that can help you keep more of what you earn. (Morningstar)

• Warfare in a Box: Executive Outcomes and the making of the modern mercenary: How drone warfare commoditized killing at scale. The moral distance is now shorter and the supply chain is global.  Placing profit over ideology, modern mercenaries are as at home in the boardroom as on the frontline. Their companies are registered in the appropriate tax haven, like the City of London, and operate through shell firms. (The Baffler)

• Where Did the Middle East Go? Satellite Imaging in the Fog of War: Planet Labs’ decision to restrict Middle East satellite imagery is raising questions within a multibillion-dollar industry about commercial independence and global accountability. (Businessweek) see also Putin’s High-Tech Russian Submarines Goad NATO Deep Below the Atlantic: The undersea cable game heats up — and NATO is still catching up to how much of the modern economy literally runs through cables at the bottom of the ocean. NATO is fighting back against Russia’s submarine threat in cat-and-mouse games reminiscent of the Cold War.  (Bloomberg)

• Richard Feynman’s Notes For Self-Education: The great physicist’s approach to learning was as elegant as his physics — curiosity-driven, self-directed, and gloriously undisciplined. A masterclass in how to stay intellectually alive.  (Noted)

• Rocket Science for Monkeys: Early disquisitions on language frequently puzzled over the question of how rational speech could have emerged from the non-speech of animal calls and cries, and Enlightenment treatises on the origins of speech sometimes proposed that iconic words might have been a halfway house.A review of recent work on animal communication and the origins of language. (London Review of Books) 

• MAGA Is Increasingly Convinced the Trump Assassination Attempt Was Staged: Conspiracy theories about the Butler, Pennsylvania, shooting have ramped up in recent weeks as once steadfast Trump supporters turn on the president. As intra-MAGA criticism of Trump grows, the “it was staged” conspiracy is gaining real traction inside the movement. (Wired)

• The Interview Violence Shaped Charlize Theron. It Doesn’t Define Her: Lulu Garcia-Navarro’s long-form interview for The Interview. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with David Gardner, cofounder of The Motley Fool in 1993 (with his brother Tom Gardner). Originally launched as a print investment newsletter based on the idea that ordinary investors could beat Wall St., it gained traction when promoted on America Online (AOL) in 1994; it soon became a major presence on AOL and then Fool.com. His latest book is “Rule Breaker Investing: How to Pick the Best Stocks of the Future and Build Lasting Wealth.”

Job Market Gets Tougher for College Grads as Competition and AI Rise

Source: Bloomberg

 

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Against US Dominance: Europe's Hormuz Mission And The Illusion Of Geopolitical Power

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The loss of Europe’s geopolitical power is the defining decline narrative of our time. As Europeans, we are condemned to become unwilling witnesses of continental decay. And in no field of politics does the toxic amalgam of eco-socialism, elite arrogance, and rampant infantilism become more visible than at the level of the European Union.

What we are witnessing in Brussels and the leading capitals of the EU are desperate attempts at coordinated foreign policy – and the realization that the cooperation of powerless individual entities does not necessarily lead to better outcomes than bilateral cooperation.

That this realization must have reached the highest circles of European politics could be observed at the end of this week. The four “big ones” – Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy – called for a maritime alliance and the protection of the Strait of Hormuz.

Fifty additional states – according to the initiators of this rather peculiar political camouflage – are expected to join the European alliance. Leadership claims are naturally being made by the former maritime powers Britain and France, above all France, whose aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle may stand as the last remaining symbol of Europe’s great naval tradition at the center of these activities – if one can even approach the Persian Gulf at all.

The situation remains fragile: the currently stable ceasefire ends on Wednesday. And negotiations between the United States, Israel, and Iran are entering their final phase. From a European perspective, our assumptions are once again confirmed: the EU and its slowly re-approaching partner the United Kingdom are staging a political cabaret. First came the wait-and-see approach until Americans and Israel had militarily decided the situation. Meanwhile, some NATO members refused cooperation with the United States, only to now, after everything has been decided, attempt to place themselves at the forefront of political forces seeking to guarantee the security of the Strait of Hormuz.

Through constant media overdrive, Starmer, Macron, Meloni, and Merz present themselves as the decision-makers of the moment – it is their harvest time, collecting cheap public dividends. But is that really the case? Do they seriously believe that the majority of Europeans are not fully aware of what is happening? That European power is essentially the product of media magic – permanent propaganda wrapped in moral excess? A shadow of past greatness, reduced to virtual impotence, ultimately dissolving into the very media theatre that we, as embarrassed Europeans, are forced to endure every day.

The German contribution to the mission, as announced by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is predictably modest: mine countermeasure vessels (eight available), one supply ship, and two P-8 Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft. No frigates – they are tied up in a NATO deployment in the North Atlantic. Germany does have a defense budget that exceeds all other Europeans by billions, yet even this money appears to vanish into the nirvana of bureaucracy and into the coffers of defense contractors, who are popping champagne corks thanks to the government’s debt-driven spending spree amid multiple conflict scenarios.

As for the possible German contribution. But as said: whether a military deployment will actually take place remains uncertain. Europe is already feeling the consequences of its energy dependency and its eco-socialist policy course, which hit like an icy wind. Yet this does not change the fact that policymakers continue to refuse to acknowledge the geopolitical vacuum, and instead begin trying to piece together diplomatically what they have shattered in recent years – especially in relations with the United States and Russia.

From poker we know: those who repeatedly bluff at the same table with empty hands and are exposed will be dismantled in future rounds. A US withdrawal from NATO would likely also mean a full retreat from the Ukraine conflict. This move would expose both Europe’s fragile finances and its non-existent security infrastructure. The EU faces economic and geopolitical problems it cannot manage alone.

From a European perspective, not many options remain. To those advocating closer alignment with China: China sees Europe primarily as a dumping ground for surplus production from its politically driven export sector. Europe could be pressured at any time via export restrictions on rare earths or microchips. This is not a viable option.

Reintegration of Russia into a broader Eurasian cooperation would be a natural and obvious element. The attempt to force regime change in Moscow has failed. The idea, attributed to EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, of fragmenting Russia into ethnic components in order to maintain leverage and control access to raw materials and energy resources remains a fantasy of hysterical Europeans trapped in their globalist worldview.

The United States remains, with its increasingly despised president in Europe, Donald Trump. He creates facts and destroys European dream worlds. And he executes a political program that allows the United States to dominate the Western Hemisphere over the long term. That the Americans project their power in the world’s maritime choke points – the Panama Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and, following the agreement with Indonesia, the Strait of Malacca – shows: Washington is preparing for the power struggle with China.

Should Europeans believe that the two giants will not ultimately reach an understanding, they are likely mistaken. The United States and China are working at high speed to consolidate their spheres of influence, reorganizing financial systems and commodity markets in line with their specific industrial needs. Moreover, the costs of an escalating conflict between the two would be too high. It is therefore logical to divide the world into corresponding spheres of power and shift the costs onto others.

For Europeans, it becomes a burden that the unavoidable has happened: access to energy and its distribution have once again become instruments of power. Oil and gas dominate – the so-called “declared dead” are living longer than ever. And Europe’s dependency is striking: up to 60 percent of primary energy demand must be imported.

Those who fail to conclude from this simple observation that the time has come for diplomacy and fair negotiations with partners – and that the era of lecturing the world with a moral finger in order to enforce a Net Zero climate regime is over – have simply been overtaken by reality.

Brussels’ strategy to impose a European climate regime on the world failed the moment Donald Trump buried the European climate policy anchored by his predecessor Barack Obama. The fact that politicians such as Friedrich Merz, Lars Klingbeil, and Ursula von der Leyen continue to cling to climate doctrine, CO₂ trading, and the transformation agenda is tragic for Europe. Our economies are now bleeding out until economic reality – higher energy prices, rising unemployment, and the emerging sovereign debt crisis – forces a political shift.

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/24/2026 - 06:30