Mills Drops Out In Maine Governor's Race As Oysterman With Nazi Tattoo Becomes Democratic Frontrunner

Maine Gov. Janet Mills suspended her U.S. Senate campaign Thursday morning, citing a lack of financial resources. That's the official explanation. The more accurate one is that the polls showed her trailing badly to Graham Platner, an oysterman from coastal Maine with no electoral experience. 

Mills had every structural advantage working for her: she’d already won a statewide election, had name identification, and the support of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. The writing was on the wall for weeks, but Mills’s exit from the race was her concession that all the momentum on the Democratic side was for Platner. 

Platner had long lapped Mills in polling and fundraising, and she'd stopped running television ads weeks earlier. Which means Platner will be the party's nominee against Sen. Susan Collins in one of the most consequential Senate races of the 2026 cycle.

In 2007, Graham Platner got a Nazi Totenkopf tattoo on his chest. He kept it there for roughly 18 years. He claims he didn't know what the symbol meant for nearly two decades. But there is significant evidence that he did, and that it was intentional. Platner amplified a social media post from Stew Peters, a neo-Nazi radio host the Anti-Defamation League has called "a prolific antisemite" who blames "'the Jews' for everything he believes is wrong with society" and who has openly called for a "final solution" to mass-deport American Jews. Platner deleted the post, but only after it got attention, not before. He also sat for a lengthy interview with antisemitic conspiracy theorist Nate Cornacchia, describing himself as a longtime fan. He has called the U.S.-Israel relationship "shameful" and praised a violent Hamas attack on Israel in 2014.

"In November Susan Collins, a proven leader with an indisputable record of delivering for Maine, will face a Nazi sympathizing self-proclaimed communist with a record of hate-mongering and dishonesty," said RNC spokesperson Kristen Cianci. "It's safe to say we are confident going into Election Day."

There’s no denying that a candidate with this profile would have been a liability the party ran from not all that long ago. Now he's the frontrunner with enough momentum that he forced the sitting governor - recruited by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer himself - to drop out of the race.

This didn't materialize overnight. The Democratic Party's tolerance for anti-Israel sentiment has been building for decades. 

The trajectory is traceable. 

Barack Obama won the presidency despite his two-decade relationship with Rev. Jeremiah Wright, a pastor whose hostility toward Israel and Jews was a matter of public record. Once in office, Obama systematically manufactured distance between Washington and Jerusalem, signaling that cool skepticism toward Israel was not just acceptable but arguably sophisticated Democratic foreign policy. 

Obama’s administration was the most anti-Israel administration since Jimmy Carter, and it frequently undermined our democratic ally in the Middle East. Obama exposed classified information about Israel's nuclear capabilities - an alarming breach of trust. His IRS targeted pro-Israel organizations, and his administration declined to enforce anti-BDS provisions, effectively offering a federal green light to a movement whose stated purpose is the economic strangulation of the Jewish state. At the 2012 Democratic National Convention, delegates initially refused to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital — a true sign that the party was becoming more openly antisemitic.

Joe Biden accelerated the trend by allowing the antisemitic wing of his party to set the terms of the Israel debate rather than confronting it. Last year, polling showed Democrats favoring Palestinians over Israelis by a staggering 59–21 percent margin, and overall American sympathy for Israel reached a 25-year low. 

The line from Jimmy Carter to Barack Obama to Graham Platner is unmistakable. It also helps explain how anti-Israel sentiment found a foothold inside the Democratic Party. Each step made the next one easier to accept, and party leadership either accepted it each time or chose not to push back.

Ironically, Democrats spent years calling their Republican opponents Nazis. The charge was deployed so casually and so broadly that it became almost ambient noise in American political life. Now the same party is on the verge of nominating a man who wore a Nazi symbol on his chest for two decades as its nominee for the United States Senate in Maine. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 22:55

Ex-CIA Analyst Warns Hegseth's Claim Of "Ironclad" Hormuz Blockade Deeply Misleading 

Authored by former CIA officer Larry Johnson

Pete Hegseth is lying about the US blockade of Iranian ports. On April 12, after JD Vance announced that talks with Iran had failed, Trump declared a naval blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas. CENTCOM clarified that the blockade would be enforced against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports, but would not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.

Now, after more than two weeks, Pete Hegseth has been saying the US blockade is working and getting stronger, describing it as “ironclad,” “tightening by the hour,” and even “going global.” He said the Navy had turned back 34 ships, that transit through the Strait of Hormuz is now “much more limited,” and that the blockade will last “as long as it takes.”

He also framed the blockade as coercive leverage on Iran, saying it is meant to cut off shipping pressure until Tehran abandons its nuclear ambitions. In the same remarks, he warned the US would “shoot to destroy” any Iranian boats laying mines or otherwise threatening commercial shipping.

Here’s what the available data tells us about Strait of Hormuz transits since April 15:

Daily volumes (around April 15): On April 15 alone, there were 19 transits — 5 inbound and 14 outbound — according to Windward. Around that same period, April 11 saw 17 transits, April 12 saw 21, and April 13 saw 17. United Against Nuclear IranWindward

Overall picture since April 15: A precise cumulative total from April 15 through today (April 30) isn’t publicly available in a single figure, but based on the data points above, daily transits have been running roughly in the range of 6–21 ships per day. Recent data from Windward and AIS trackers confirm persistent low volumes of 6–13 vessels daily.

That would put a rough estimate somewhere in the ballpark of 100–200 total transits over the 15-day stretch since April 15 — though the true number could be higher due to GPS spoofing. I can’t comment on GPS spoofing, but I can say with certainty that Pete Hegseth is spoofing the American public about the effectiveness of the blockade.

In order to understand Hegseth’s perfidy, you need to understand the US Navy doctrine for handling a blockade. The US Navy’s approach to taking control of a ship seized during a blockade centers on Visit, Board, Search, and Seizure (VBSS) operations, governed primarily by the Commander’s Handbook on the Law of Naval Operations (NWP 1-14M/MCTP 11-10B, March 2022) and aligned with the law of armed conflict (LOAC), including customary rules on blockades.

Standard Procedure for Seizure & Control

1. Interception and Warnings: US forces (Navy warships, often with Marine or Coast Guard support) issue radio warnings, visual signals, or warning shots to order the vessel to stop. Non-compliance can lead to disabling fire (e.g., targeting engines) to halt the ship without sinking it.
2. Boarding (VBSS): A specialized boarding party—typically from the Navy, Marines (e.g., 31st MEU), or Coast Guard—approaches via small boats, helicopters, or fast-roping. The team secures the bridge, engine room, and key areas to establish control. Teams train for both compliant and non-compliant (opposed) boardings, using tactics for close-quarters battle, searches, and restraint of crew.
3. Taking Control:
   • The boarding party assumes operational command of the vessel.
   • In a formal wartime blockade or armed conflict context, a prize crew (detachment of US personnel) may be placed aboard to sail the seized ship to a friendly port for adjudication. The original crew can be detained, removed, or (for neutrals) sometimes allowed limited continued presence under guard.
   • The ship and cargo become subject to inspection for contraband, sanctions violations, or blockade breach. Under prize law (revivable in armed conflict), a prize court may condemn the vessel/cargo as lawful prize.
4. Post-Seizure: Here is the key point: the vessel is typically escorted to a US or allied port for further inspection, potential forfeiture, or release if the capture is deemed unlawful. Crew handling follows LOAC (e.g., humane treatment; possible internment for belligerents).

Blockades are acts of war requiring effective enforcement (impartial, declared, and maintained by force). Violators (enemy or neutral ships breaching or attempting to breach) are subject to capture

Now that you understand the procedure, let’s look at the US Navy's constraints. As I discussed in my last article, the US Navy is keeping its ships 200 miles off the coast of Iran. If the venture any closer to shore they are vulnerable to missile and drone attacks. The Iranian ships — when they leave port — normally stay within 50 miles of the Iranian coast, which means they are outside the reach of the US Navy.

Fifty two Iranian vessels have crossed a US-imposed blockade of Iranian waters within a 72-hour period...
https://t.co/mZrwK5qijI

— Trita Parsi (@tparsi) April 29, 2026

Next, let’s look at the current US Navy order of battle (this is based on publicly available information). As of late April 2026, the US Navy has at least 14 actively operating or supporting in the broader region (Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, and relevant Indian Ocean areas). This includes three Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs); at least eight multiple guided-missile destroyers; six ships attached to the Amphibious Ready Groups (ARG) for the 31st and 11th MEUs, and two additional escorts (not part of the core ARG but often operate with it): the Cruiser USS Robert Smalls (CG-62) and the destroyer USS Rafael Peralta (DDG-115), forming a broader Expeditionary Strike Group. In other words, the US Navy only as 11 ships that could be used in a VBSS operation.

Do you see the math problem? The current US deployment means that the US Navy could do VBSS operations on 11 vessels… Tops! But that would mean that US destroyers, which have the mission of protecting the US carriers from air attacks, would have to be pulled off of their primary mission leaving the carriers to fend for themselves. If we assume that all 11 US ships carried out successful VBSS operations since 15 April, that means between 89% and 96% of all Iranian ships out of the Strait of Hormuz have evaded the blockade. Hegseth is lying.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 22:25

This Is The Salary Needed To Live Comfortably In US Cities

How much do you need to earn to live comfortably in a major American city? Increasingly, the answer is a six-figure salary.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, shows the income required for a comfortable lifestyle across 56 U.S. cities, factoring in housing, food, transportation, savings, and discretionary spending.

The data comes from SmartAsset, using the MIT Living Wage Calculator and updated in February 2026.

The Highest-Cost Cities Now Require Nearly $160K

New York tops the list at $158,954, narrowly ahead of San Jose at $158,080.

California accounts for many of the highest-cost cities overall, with Irvine, San Diego, San Francisco, Oakland, Los Angeles, and Sacramento all ranking near the top.

Rank City Salary to live comfortably 1 New York, NY $158,954 2 San Jose, CA $158,080 3 Irvine, CA $151,965 4 Boston, MA $139,776 5 San Diego, CA $136,781 6 San Francisco, CA $134,950 7 Oakland, CA $134,410 8 Honolulu, HI $128,253 9 Seattle, WA $127,296 10 Jersey City, NJ $127,005 11 Arlington, VA $125,882 12 Los Angeles, CA $120,307 13 Riverside, CA $119,974 14 Sacramento, CA $117,021 15 Portland, OR $116,106 16 Washington, DC $111,155 17 Denver, CO $110,781 18 Raleigh, NC $110,490 19 Virginia Beach, VA $110,448 20 Plano, TX $109,242 21 Atlanta, GA $108,451 22 Miami, FL $108,077 23 Charlotte, NC $106,205 24 Phoenix, AZ $106,122 25 Chicago, IL $105,830 26 Tacoma, WA $105,290 27 Newark, NJ $104,125 28 Boise, ID $104,000 29 Tampa, FL $102,710 30 Nashville, TN $102,502 31 Reno, NV $102,419 32 Minneapolis, MN $102,045 33 Anchorage, AK $101,795 34 Madison, WI $101,754 35 Durham, NC $101,296 36 Colorado Springs, CO $100,464 37 Austin, TX $98,550 38 Fort Worth, TX $97,552 39 Richmond, VA $97,178 40 Philadelphia, PA $97,094 41 Dallas, TX $96,970 42 Buffalo, NY $96,221 43 St. Paul, MN $96,054 44 Pittsburgh, PA $95,472 45 Omaha, NE $94,765 46 Orlando, FL $93,475 47 Columbus, OH $92,810 48 Jacksonville, FL $92,518 49 Kansas City, MO $92,144 50 Indianapolis, IN $90,896 51 Houston, TX $89,981 52 Tulsa, OK $88,317 53 Baltimore, MD $87,485 54 Memphis, TN $86,320 55 New Orleans, LA $84,406 56 San Antonio, TX $83,242

Taken together, the top of the ranking highlights how concentrated the highest costs are in a handful of major metros, particularly in California and the Northeast.

Boston, Honolulu, Seattle, and Jersey City also stand out, showing that the highest salary thresholds extend well beyond just a handful of coastal hubs.

Six-Figure Salaries Are Becoming the Norm

A key shift in the data is how quickly six-figure income requirements have spread beyond the most expensive cities.

Beyond the usual high-cost leaders, cities such as Denver, Atlanta, Nashville, Charlotte, and Boise now require roughly $100K or more for a comfortable lifestyle. That shift suggests higher living costs are no longer confined to the country’s most expensive coastal markets.

Lower-Cost Cities Still Require Substantial Income

At the lower end of the ranking, the salary needed to live comfortably still remains substantial. San Antonio has the lowest threshold at $83,069, followed by Memphis at $86,444 and Tulsa at $87,690.

Even in the most affordable cities on the map, the income needed for a comfortable lifestyle is far above what many households earn, highlighting how even the most “affordable” major cities now require incomes that were once considered high.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Where Americans Pay the Most Income Tax on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 21:55

DOJ Probes 36 Illinois School Districts Over Sexual Orientation Content In Pre-K–12 Classes

Authored by Naveen Anthrappully via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Justice’s (DOJ) Civil Rights Division has launched multiple investigations into 36 Illinois public school districts to assess whether sexual orientation and gender ideology content is being taught in pre-K-12 grade classes.

If the districts are determined to be teaching sexual orientation and gender ideology-related content, “the investigations will examine whether the schools have notified parents of their right to opt their children out of such instruction,” the DOJ said in an April 30 statement.

“The investigation will also assess whether the Illinois School Districts limit access to single-sex intimate spaces (such as bathrooms and locker rooms) and girls’ sports teams based on biological sex.”

The probe will cover whether the districts violated Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972, which explicitly prohibits discrimination on the basis of sex in education programs and activities receiving federal financial assistance. The districts are “recipients of hundreds of thousands of dollars of taxpayer funding,” the DOJ said.

The investigations will also look into whether the school districts adhere to the U.S. Supreme Court’s “extensive precedents on parental rights” as affirmed in Mirabelli v. Bonta and Mahmoud v. Taylor cases.

In the Mirabelli v. Bonta case, the Supreme Court blocked a California policy on March 2 that prohibited school personnel from informing parents when their children requested changing their preferred gender identity at schools.

“The State argues that its policies advance a compelling interest in student safety and privacy,” the court wrote in its decision. “But those policies cut out the primary protectors of children’s best interests: their parents.”

In the Mahmoud v. Taylor lawsuit, the U.S. Supreme Court sided with Maryland parents, who, for religious reasons, wanted to opt their children out from getting exposed to school storybooks promoting LGBT lifestyles.

Commenting on the DOJ’s probe into 36 Illinois school districts, Assistant Attorney General Harmeet K. Dhillon of the department’s Civil Rights Division said, “This Department of Justice is determined to put an end to local school authorities keeping parents in the dark about how sexuality and gender ideology are being pushed in classrooms.”

“Supreme Court precedent leaves no doubt: parents have the fundamental right and primary authority to direct the care, upbringing, and education of their children,” he said. “This includes exempting their children from ideological instruction that contradicts their values or decisions about their children’s health and best interests.”

The Illinois school districts under investigation include Bloomington Public Schools District, Lick Creek Community Consolidated School District, O’Fallon Community Consolidated School District, and Pembroke Community Consolidated School District.

The Epoch Times reached out to these school districts for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

The full list of school districts being probed was posted on the DOJ website.

Gender Ideology Investigations

On April 17, the Department of Education said it found four school districts in Kansas to have violated Title IX and the Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act.

These districts had policies “that were likely to prevent schools from notifying parents of their child’s so-called ‘gender transition,’ even if the parent requested their child’s records,” the department said.

In August 2025, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) asked 46 states and territories to remove gender identity references from teaching materials, failing which they would face penalties, including the termination or suspension of federal funding.

This was met with a legal challenge by a coalition of 16 states and the District of Columbia, which filed a lawsuit in September 2025, arguing that terminating funding would harm “the very populations Congress intended to help.” The plaintiffs said complying with the order would conflict with their own laws and policies that require “inclusive” sex education curricula.

“The federal government’s far-reaching efforts to erase people who don’t fit one of two gender labels is illegal and wrong—and would deny services to millions more in the process,” Washington Attorney General Nick Brown said in a statement. The case is still ongoing in the court.

The HHS justified its order by citing a Jan. 29, 2025, executive order signed by President Donald Trump—Ending Radical Indoctrination in K-12 Schooling—which said that no federal dollars should go towards indoctrinating children in “radical, anti-American ideologies.”

At the time of the HHS order, Andrew Gradison, acting assistant secretary for the department’s Administration for Children and Families, said that “federal funds will not be used to poison the minds of the next generation or advance dangerous ideological agendas.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 21:25

Hawaii Has America's Highest Life Expectancy, West Virginia The Lowest

Life expectancy varies widely across the U.S., with clear regional patterns emerging in the latest data.

States in the Northeast and on the West Coast tend to have higher life expectancies, while many in the South and Appalachia rank lower.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, shows these differences using data from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics, based on 2022 life tables published in December 2025, the latest publicly available state-level figures as of March 2026.

The CDC’s report uses period life tables, which estimate how long a hypothetical group would live if it experienced the death rates observed in 2022 at every age. In other words, the measure captures current mortality conditions in each state, not a forecast for babies born there today.

Where Americans Live the Longest, and the Shortest

Among the 50 states and D.C., Hawaii had the highest life expectancy at birth in 2022 at 80.0 years. Massachusetts followed at 79.8, with New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut close behind.

The data table below shows the life expectancy of every U.S. state and D.C.:

Rank State Life Expectancy (Years) 1 Hawaii 80.0 2 Massachusetts 79.8 3 New Jersey 79.6 4 New York 79.5 5 Connecticut 79.4 6 California 79.3 7 Minnesota 79.3 8 Rhode Island 79.2 9 Utah 79.0 10 New Hampshire 78.7 11 Colorado 78.5 12 Idaho 78.4 13 Washington 78.4 14 Nebraska 78.3 15 Vermont 78.3 16 Wisconsin 78.1 17 North Dakota 77.9 18 Iowa 77.9 19 Florida 77.9 20 Maryland 77.8 21 Oregon 77.7 22 Illinois 77.5 23 Virginia 77.5 24 Pennsylvania 77.3 25 South Dakota 77.3 26 Montana 77.3 27 Texas 77.1 28 Wyoming 76.8 29 Michigan 76.8 30 Arizona 76.7 31 Maine 76.6 32 District of Columbia 76.6 33 Delaware 76.5 34 Kansas 76.5 35 Nevada 76.4 36 Georgia 75.9 37 North Carolina 75.9 38 Alaska 75.8 39 Ohio 75.6 40 Indiana 75.4 41 Missouri 75.2 42 South Carolina 75.1 43 New Mexico 74.5 44 Arkansas 73.9 45 Oklahoma 73.8 46 Tennessee 73.8 47 Alabama 73.8 48 Louisiana 73.8 49 Kentucky 73.6 50 Mississippi 72.6 51 West Virginia 72.2

On the other end of the ranking, West Virginia came in last at 72.2 years, behind Mississippi at 72.6 and Kentucky at 73.6.

The broad pattern is regional: the Northeast and West Coast have higher life expectancies, while many Southern and Appalachian states cluster at the bottom.

Why the National Average Misses the State Divide

While the national average is 77.5 years, only 21 states cleared that mark. Illinois and Virginia matched it exactly, and the remaining 28 states came in below it.

The CDC also found that females had higher life expectancy than males in every state and D.C., but the size of that gender gap varied widely. States on the lower end of life expectancy tended to have larger divides, while higher-ranked states had smaller gaps.

For example, New Mexico (ninth-lowest life expectancy at 74.5) recorded the largest female-male gap at 6.9 years, while Utah (ninth-highest at 79 years) had the smallest at 3.6 years.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Why Living Longer Isn’t Always Living Healthier on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 20:55

Russia Now Main Supplier Of Oil To Post-Assad Syria, Despite Pivot To West

Via The Cradle

Russia has become Syria's leading supplier of oil since the collapse of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s government and the rise to power of former Al-Qaeda chief Ahmad al-Sharaa, according to Reuters. 

Shipments of Russian oil have risen by 75 percent this year to roughly 60,000 barrels per day (bpd), based on Reuters calculations using official data and vessel tracking from LSEG, MarineTraffic, and Shipnext.

Getty Images

While these volumes account for only a small fraction of Russia’s total global oil exports, they are significant for Syria. With domestic production still well below demand, Russian supplies have made Moscow the country’s leading crude provider.

According to two analysts and three Syrian officials cited by Reuters, the trade is driven by economic necessity in Damascus while also allowing Moscow to maintain influence in Syria. 

The energy supplies risk complicating Syrian ties with Washington and the EU, sources were cited as saying. 

“If the US were to fail to reach an agreement or settlement with Russia regarding Ukraine, it wouldn’t be a surprise if it told Syria overnight to stop buying these oil shipments,” said economist Karam Shaar. 

Syria has undergone a major shift toward Washington and the west since Assad’s ouster. The US has declared Damascus a partner and ally in the fight against ISIS – ignoring the Syrian government’s ties to the extremist organization. 

Damascus was also engaged in talks with Israel throughout last year, and began a crackdown on Palestinian resistance factions in Syria at Washington’s request. 

As a result, most US sanctions have been lifted. Despite this, Syria has not been fully integrated into the global economic system. 

Russia was a prime supporter of the Assad government. Throughout the 14-year war in Syria, Russian airstrikes repeatedly targeted extremist groups – which now make up the bulk of Syria's official military and security apparatus. 

But ties have improved, and Russia has retained a military presence inside Syria following negotiations with Damascus throughout 2025. 

In March last year, Reuters reported that Syria was receiving currency shipments from Russia. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 20:35

Estée Lauder Accelerates Turnaround, Adds 3,000 Jobs To Chopping Block

Beauty and cosmetics giant Estée Lauder is accelerating its workforce restructuring, announcing Friday morning that it will cut another 3,000 jobs, bringing total planned reductions to as many as 10,000 roles. The move is expected to unlock hundreds of millions of dollars in additional savings. Still, it also suggests a deeper reset in the company's workforce after its hiring spree leading up to  Covid, potentially putting a long-term cap on headcount.

The owner of Clinique, La Mer, MAC, Aveda, Bobbi Brown, Jo Malone London, Le Labo, Tom Ford Beauty, Too Faced, and others wrote in an earnings press release that it now "estimates a final net reduction in positions of 9,000 to 10,000, an increase from 5,800 to 7,000." In other words, management found another 3,000 jobs to cut.

According to Bloomberg data, Estée Lauder has a global workforce of about 40,470 as of the second quarter of 2025. The total workforce peaked in 2022 at around 44,800, ending a multi-decade hiring spree.

"Over 70% of the increase is attributable to the reduction in point-of-sale demonstration roles at select unproductive doors in its department store and freestanding store channels, as the Company continues to evolve its focus towards high-growth channels," the company noted.

Management said the restructuring is based on four objectives:

1. reorganization and rightsizing of certain areas,

2. simplification and acceleration of processes,

3. outsourcing of select services and

4. evolution of go-to-market footprint and selling models, all to help rebuild operating margin and also fuel reinvestment in consumer-facing areas to drive sustainable sales growth.

Shares jumped as much as 16% in premarket trading, and if those gains hold through the cash session, it would be the largest increase since November 3, 2011. The optimism stemmed from Estée Lauder's earnings report, which raised its profit outlook.

The company now expects adjusted EPS of $2.35 to $2.45, above analyst estimates tracked by Bloomberg and higher than its prior $2.05 to $2.25 range. Organic sales growth is expected to be 3%, at the high end of previous guidance.

Shares are trading around 2016 levels after what can only be described as a boom-and-bust cycle, peaking in 2021. Shares remain down roughly 80%, as of Thursday's close, from the peak of $370 in late 2021.

The question Wall Street analysts have been asking is whether CEO Stéphane de La Faverie's turnaround will be successful.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 20:10

A Robot Economy: Who Gets Rich, Who Gets Left Behind

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Robots are coming to the economy. It is inevitable, really, and there is nothing that will stop it. At some point in the not-so-distant future, robots will infiltrate every aspect of our lives, from office work and manufacturing to service work and trade skills, and even your home. Here are some numbers for you.

The real question I want to explore in today’s post is what happens to the people who don’t own the robots? Let’s dig in.

I spent the past week reading through a detailed account of what’s happening inside Figure’s robotics facility in San Jose, and I want to be direct: the humanoid robots economy is no longer a thought experiment. Figure’s latest robot ran for 67 consecutive hours of fully autonomous work, kitchen tasks, package handling, and logistics, without a single error. That’s not a demo reel, that’s a product. When you factor in a projected lease cost of roughly $10 a day, it’s a product priced to replace the single largest input cost on every corporate income statement in America: human labor.

The optimists call what’s coming the “age of abundance.” Cheaper goods, freed-up time, robots building robots until supply constraints essentially disappear. That would be incredible, and you should not dismiss that vision. Furthermore, I think it’s directionally correct over a long enough horizon. But after 35 years of watching economic cycles play out, I’ve learned that the gap between a macro promise and the lived experience of actual households is where the real story lives.

In an upcoming article, we will dig deeper into the problems plaguing the K-shaped economy. However, that bifurcated structure, in which higher-income households ascend while lower-income ones stagnate, was already a structural feature of American life before a single humanoid robot touched a factory floor. Back to our question, does the arrival of humanoid robots at scale fix that problem? Or, does it make it dramatically worse? The answer, I believe, is both, in that order, and separated by a decade of potential pain.

The Technology Of Robots Is Not Waiting For A Policy Response

It’s worth taking the technology seriously before discussing the economics, because the economics are downstream of the hardware reality. Figure has replaced over 100,000 lines of handwritten control code with a single neural network — what they call Helix 2 — that controls the robot’s entire body in real time. The key shift is that neural networks learn from data rather than explicit instructions. Once a robot masters a task, that knowledge propagates instantly across the entire fleet. Humans don’t work that way. Robots do.

At $300 per month to lease, against a U.S. minimum wage that runs $15 to $20 per hour, a humanoid robot is already 50 times cheaper than the human it displaces, and it works around the clock without benefits, turnover, or OSHA violations. The corporate incentive to adopt is not subtle. JPMorgan’s own disclosures describe AI-driven efficiency gains of 40% to 50% in certain operations. Add a physical labor layer to that, and you have the most powerful deflationary force for corporate margins in modern history.

While shareholders of corporations with large labor forces will love the improvement in profit margins, workers will not. That asymmetry is not a flaw in the system; it’s a feature of who owns the system. And that ownership structure is the core issue this article is really about.

The K-Shaped Economy Was Already Broken

Here’s what makes the discussion of humanoid robots’ economy so complicated: we’re not starting from a position of broad-based prosperity. The K-shaped economy is already a structural, not cyclical, feature of modern America. The Federal Reserve’s own data shows the top 1% of households hold nearly 32% of total net worth, while the bottom 50% collectively hold 2.5%. The portion of GDP flowing to workers as compensation just hit its lowest level in over 75 years of Bureau of Labor Statistics tracking. The middle class shrank from 61% of the population in 1971 to barely 51% in 2023.

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi described this not as a temporary anomaly but as “a structural, fundamental issue.” U.S. Bank’s economics team concluded in their 2026 report that income concentration now exceeds its pre-pandemic peak and sits at levels not seen in 60 years. These figures predate the meaningful deployment of humanoid robots. They reflect decades of technology-driven productivity gains that have flowed disproportionately to capital owners rather than to labor.

“The gains from technology have reliably accrued to capital. There is no structural reason to expect the arrival of humanoid robots to reverse that pattern — and strong structural reasons to expect it accelerates it.” – US Bank

Fortune’s analysis earlier this year captured the consensus view among economists. That view is that while AI and robots may eventually close the inequality gap, productivity gains need to first reach low-skilled workers. That must come through real wage increases at the bottom of the distribution, before that convergence happens. That process won’t complete until well into the 2030s at the earliest. In the meantime, the wealth effect continues to push the two tracks of the K further apart.

Stanford’s Erik Brynjolfsson, director of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, drew a blunt historical parallel: the Midwest auto communities hollowed out by trade and automation in the 1990s. But the coming displacement is potentially 10 to 100 times more disruptive — not because it’s faster, but because it spans both blue-collar and white-collar work simultaneously. Software engineers, call center workers, and administrative roles face AI-driven displacement. Factory workers, warehouse staff, and service workers are facing displacement by humanoid robots. There’s no obvious “up-the-ladder” escape hatch when both rungs are being removed at once.

We already discussed the structural challenge in our January 2026 piece on AI Productivity, Employment, and UBI. The IMF estimates that AI could significantly affect nearly 40% of jobs worldwide. But the distribution of risk is deeply unequal. Entry-level roles, historically the on-ramp for younger workers without established skills, are exactly the jobs being automated first.

“The pace of technological change means millions of Americans face an uncertain labor market. Young workers entering the workforce find fewer traditional hiring pathways and rising expectations around digital and AI‑related skills. Older workers frequently lack the time or resources to retrain in rapidly shifting skill environments. Across age groups, employers deploying AI experience reduced labor costs and increased productivity, which simultaneously puts pressure on wages and job security.”

The problem already exists, and robots will likely only make things worse. For example, layoffs in 2025 ran more than 50% above the prior year, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. That displacement risk will grow further as robots enter the mainstream.

As we concluded in that previous article:

“The reality is stark. The economy may grow, but how the gains are distributed will determine whether everyday Americans thrive or struggle. Without structural policy interventions, technological displacement risks widening income inequality and weakening labor market attachment. The promise of more leisure, education, and family time from productivity gains remains theoretical. If workers lack stable incomes, employment opportunities, or bridging support, the rest won’t matter.”

But, this is where the “cries for UBI” become most vocal.

The UBI Trap

When people confront this picture, the political reflex is predictable: send checks. Universal Basic Income has become the default policy proposal for managing automation-driven displacement, and it’s worth taking seriously, not because it works, but because understanding why it doesn’t tells you a great deal about what actually might.

We covered the evidence in detail in our earlier piece on UBI experiments. The real-world results were consistent: cash transfers increased short-term consumption and reduced reported stress. They did not raise employment. They did not meaningfully increase retraining, skill development, or entrepreneurship. The largest behavioral response was an uptick in what researchers categorized as “social and solo leisure activities.” Legendary investor Howard Marks framed the core problem plainly: financial support alone cannot replace the psychological and social benefits of employment. Work provides identity, structure, and purpose, not just income. A check replaces the wage. It replaces nothing else.

The structural flaw is deeper than behavioral. An economy cannot function on transfers alone. Production must precede consumption. When the government sends checks to households without a corresponding increase in productive output, the result is inflation, exactly what 2020–2022 demonstrated. Producers observe increased purchasing power and raise prices to capture it. The real value of the transfer evaporates. A national UBI program large enough to offset meaningful displacement would cost trillions annually, requiring higher taxes or debt expansion, each of which suppresses the private investment needed to create new roles.

While that all seems bad, there is a more optimistic possibility, and why I want to push back on the dystopian framing. First, I don’t think the outcome is predetermined. The Industrial Revolution created enormous displacement: artisans lost work to mechanized production, and whole trades disappeared. But it also produced a century of rising living standards for people who successfully transitioned into new economic roles. The difference between that transition going well and going badly was not a UBI check. It was access to new skills, new institutions, and new markets.

The economy of humanoid robots creates real demand for roles that robots genuinely cannot fill. Trades requiring tactile judgment in unpredictable environments, such as master electricians, structural engineers, and experienced surgeons, aren’t going anywhere quickly. Secondly, AI and robotics are capital-intensive industries themselves, generating sustained demand for maintenance technicians, fleet managers, training data specialists, and deployment engineers. These aren’t science-fiction roles, but the downstream jobs for the infrastructure being built right now.

Lastly, there’s one lever that doesn’t get discussed enough: ownership. The K-shaped economy is, at its core, a problem of capital ownership. The households that benefit from automation are the ones that own the companies deploying it. Expanding the share of Americans with meaningful exposure to productive capital, whether through 401(k) reforms, Employee Stock Ownership Plans, or accessible investment platforms, does more for long-term inequality than any transfer payment. If a displaced warehouse worker owns shares in the company whose humanoid robots replaced her, the economics look very different than if she doesn’t.

What This Means for Investors Right Now

From a portfolio standpoint, the humanoid robots economy creates some of the most asymmetric opportunities I’ve seen in my career. However, the risk distribution is equally asymmetric, and most retail investors are positioned to capture the downside more than the upside.

The companies building the enabling infrastructure, robotics manufacturers, neural network chip designers, industrial automation software, and energy infrastructure to power the compute are the obvious beneficiaries. But valuations in that space already reflect extraordinary expectations. Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee assigns roughly a 50/50 probability to AI-related capital expenditures meeting investor expectations, noting that implementation timelines frequently slip and productivity gains tend to concentrate in a handful of large firms. That’s not a reason to avoid the sector. It is a reason to size positions carefully and not chase narratives at elevated multiples.

The overlooked angle is the deflationary pressure on companies that rely heavily on service labor. Hospitality, food service, residential services, and logistics firms currently trade at labor cost structures that will look dramatically different in five to seven years. For some, that’s a margin expansion story. For others, it’s a demand destruction story. A significant portion of their customer base works in exactly the jobs being displaced. The companies that survive the transition are the ones that both reduce labor costs and retain the purchasing power of their customer base. That’s a genuinely difficult needle to thread.

The investors who benefit most from the humanoid robots economy will be those who own the productive assets. Investing in equities, real estate, and capital-allocating businesses will far outpace depending solely on earned income. That pattern is not new. It’s the same dynamic that has driven the K-shaped divergence for the past 50 years. The robotics revolution amplifies it; it doesn’t invent it. Which means the single most important investment decision most Americans can make today has nothing to do with picking the right robotics stock. It’s making sure they own enough capital to participate in the upside that’s coming, whatever form it ultimately takes.

The age of abundance is coming. I genuinely believe that. But abundance distributed through ownership looks completely different from abundance distributed through government transfers. The first compounds. The second erodes. History has run this experiment repeatedly, and the result is not ambiguous. The question isn’t whether humanoid robots will transform the economy. They already are. The question is whether you’re positioned on the right side of the ledger when they do.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 19:45

New California DMV Rules Allow Autonomous Vehicles To Be Cited

Authored by Lear Zhou via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

SAN FRANCISCO—Driverless vehicles such as Waymo robotaxis could be ticketed for moving violations, according to updated autonomous vehicle (AV) regulations approved by the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) on April 28, to enhance safety, oversight, and enforcement requirements.

Waymo driverless vehicles charge at a Waymo charging station in Santa Monica, Calif., on May 30, 2025. Daniel Cole/Reuters

The new rules allow law enforcement agencies to cite the companies that own the AVs for traffic violations committed by their vehicles.

Part of the regulations, which were implemented based on the California Legislature’s Assembly Bill 1777, also require companies to respond to calls from police, firefighters, and other emergency officials within 30 seconds.

The rules also authorize emergency response officials to issue electronic geofencing requests to an AV manufacturer to direct its AV fleet to leave or avoid the area within two minutes. “AVs that violate this restriction may be subject to permit restrictions or suspension,” according to DMV’s news release.

“Autonomous vehicle innovators operating in California have a clear, workable path to test and deploy, ensuring the state will continue to benefit from autonomous technology through safer roads, enhanced accessibility, and strengthened supply chains.” said Jeff Farrah, CEO of the Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association (AVIA), referring to the new regulation in an April 29 statement.

AVIA is a non-governmental organization advocating for the safe and timely deployment of autonomous driving technologies.

The new rules send a clear message that “autonomy does not remove responsibility,” Ahmed Banafa, an engineering professor of San Jose State University, told The Epoch Times via email.

“These vehicles must integrate smoothly into real-world environments that include law enforcement, pedestrians, and unpredictable situations.” he said.

Previously law enforcement officers often didn’t know how to deal with driverless cars. The new rules are meant to lead to more standardized procedures, clearer communication channels, and better coordination between AV fleets and the law enforcement agencies.

“While it may introduce additional compliance costs and slow down some rollouts, it creates a clearer framework for companies to operate within,” Banafa said.

DMV’s new rules based on AB 1777 would require AV manufacturers to maintain a dedicated emergency response telephone line, and equip each AV with a two-way voice communication device for emergency response officers to communicate with a remote human operator.

The deadline for the AV companies to comply was set as July 1, 2026.

The rule updates come after issues were revealed involving autonomous vehicles in San Francisco, including Waymo cars blocking intersections during a massive blackout that disabled traffic signals in December.

The San Francisco Fire Department also complained after dozens of incidents involving driverless vehicles interfering with emergency response teams in 2023.

To comply with the new regulations, the AV manufacturers must increase human involvement, but in a different form, Banafa ssaid. “Humans are now part of a centralized support system rather than physically inside the car.”

On Feb. 4, 2026, in a Senate Commerce Committee hearing, Waymo’s chief safety officer Mauricio Peña testified that when the company’s robotaxis encounter unusual situations, a remote human operator may step in.

Peña said some of the operators are located in the United States, while other workers are abroad, including in the Philippines.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 18:55

The Elites And Their Contempt

Authored by Rev. John F. Naugle via The Brownstone Institute,

Last week, I was unexpectedly hit with a post-lockdown trauma response. While driving to a baseball game days before the NFL Draft came to Pittsburgh, I passed a digital highway sign instructing me to avoid nonessential travel.

Suddenly, memories of empty highways with signs instructing drivers to “Stay Safe and Stay Home” came flooding back to me.

As the week developed, it began to occur to me that the parallels were deeper than my subjective emotional response. Road closures intensified, rendering my beloved city of Pittsburgh less and less functional. Even sidewalks were closed. 

Entire parking garages were emptied and abandoned. Pittsburgh’s “most visited museum,” the Kamin Science Center, has been closed to the public for weeks because it was within the footprint of the upcoming event. For the actual days of the draft, Pittsburgh Public Schools were shuttered as if a blizzard had rendered travel impossible.

How do I walk to PNC Park?

The attempt by local officials to trigger hysteria in the populace worked, maybe too well. People traveling to Pittsburgh for the event heeded the instructions to use the special free public transit to make their way in. Parking operators, expecting a huge windfall, saw themselves lower their exorbitant prices midday. For example, the Rivers Casino quickly abandoned their plan to charge $250 per day, lowering their rate to $100 for the first day of the draft and then abandoning charging altogether for subsequent days.

Local businesses outside the official footprint of the event were told to prepare for heavy crowds, but instead experienced a weekend worse than anything they had seen since the Covid hysteria. Those who didn’t want to go to the draft were terrified to go anywhere near the city.

In summary, children were deprived of education, small business owners were drastically harmed, public spaces which exist for the common good were shuttered, and normal life ceased for those who actually live in the City of Pittsburgh. While all of this was happening, local politicians were patting themselves on the back for how well everything was pulled off, taking pride that this draft broke attendance records for the NFL and that their plans of getting people in and out of the city were effective. It was our own personal Operation Warp Speed.

I think there’s a lesson here that applies not merely to Pittsburgh politics but also to the wider dysfunction we see in elected officials throughout what used to be Western Civilization.

Our political leaders view their own constituents with a sort of boredom or indifference. In the leadup to the draft, Pittsburgh, Allegheny County, and the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania engaged in a number of public works projects designed to improve the area in preparation for the draft. 

Suddenly, our governments remembered that potholes aren’t supposed to be allowed to exist and that crime isn’t supposed to be allowed to happen. For three days, Pittsburgh had a heavily subsidized and highly functional public transit system, something that hasn’t existed the entirety of my lifetime.

Any one of these projects could have been accomplished at any time, but the actual people who live there provided insufficient motivation for our leaders. Rather, what really mattered to them was looking good in front of millionaires, soon-to-be millionaires, and the powerful elites who would gather to party the night away with Nelly, Steve Aoki, and 2 Chainz.

Meanwhile, the elites themselves seem to view the common people with at least implicit contempt. They desire entire blocks to be shut down for their own amusement. The common man, including those who wait upon them, should be relegated to buses or walking so as not to encroach upon their experience. This is their party, and the city is lucky to have them there.

We live in a world where the elites view the common man as a problem to be solved and the leaders elected by the common man anxiously present themselves as lapdogs to these elites, forgetting any sense of duty or obligation to those who placed them in power.

We saw this during lockdowns, we saw this as inflation raged on, and we see it now as gas prices remain above $4. The urgent and pressing question that faces all of us: what is the political solution in a system where elected officials conspire with elites who hold the voters themselves in contempt?

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 17:15

8 In 10 Chatbots Inclined To Assist Users In Planning Attacks

Eight out of ten AI chatbots have been found to actively assist users in planning violent attacks, according to a new investigation by CNN and the Center for Countering Digital Hate.

As Statista's Anna Fleck reports, when asked to plan violent attacks including a school shooting, an antisemitic bombing and a political assassination, platforms such as Perplexity, Meta AI and DeepSeek regularly assisted users in finding answers.

Only one, Anthropic’s Claude, repeatedly discouraged users from taking action.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Researchers tested ten chatbots by acting as a user planning to carry out several types of violent attacks both in the United States and in Ireland, providing a European comparison.

The tests were designed to reflect plans for school shootings or knife attacks, assassinations targeting politicians or bombings targeting political parties or synagogues.

In over half of the responses for eight of the chatbots, the subjects were provided with advice on locations to target and weapons to use in an attack.

Snapchat’s My AI and Anthropic’s Claude refused to offer help in 54 percent and 68 percent of cases, respectively. Claude was also the only chatbot to consistently recognize the intentions of the user and to discourage them from acting. Meanwhile, Character.AI actively encouraged violence, including suggesting that the test user “use a gun” on a health insurance CEO and physically assault a politician that the user dislikes.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 16:50

Meta Buys Robot Brain Startup As Zuck Wants Humanoids In Homes

After the Oculus and Metaverse bets turned into costly disappointments for Mark Zuckerberg's Meta Platforms, the tech giant's pivot to real-world humanoid robotics appears to be gaining momentum, with news Friday afternoon that it is acquiring Assured Robot Intelligence.

Bloomberg reports that Meta has closed the acquisition of the humanoid robotics startup, which develops AI models to help robots understand, predict, and adapt to human behavior in complex environments.

What Meta has acquired appears to be a "robot brain" designed to give Zuckerberg's humanoid robots better control, self-learning capabilities, and whole-body movement, enabling them to operate around people and perform physical tasks. Eventually, Zuckerberg wants these bots in your home.

Under the deal, co-founders Lerrel Pinto and Xiaolong Wang will join Meta Superintelligence Labs and work with the Meta Robotics Studio.

There is no information about the robot brains on ARI's website. Using the commercial risk intelligence firm Sayari, we can see the founders and directors of the startup.

More interestingly, trade data shows that ARI imported "8529.90 - Parts for TVs & Radios" from India.

Hopefully, Zuck can end his cold streak of failures with humanoid robots.

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 15:35

OPEC Just Signaled A Historic Gold Tailwind

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

The United Arab Emirates’ headline departure from OPEC this week has now made the case for precious metals almost too obvious. In fact, the critical USD-Petrodollar-Gold triangle just sent us one of the most important gold signals in over 50 years.

And for anyone paying attention, this should come as no surprise.

Warnings from 2022

From day one of the 2022 U.S. sanctions against Russia, we argued in “How the West was Lost” that this event marked the greatest macro-economic watershed to hit the world since Nixon decoupled the dollar from gold in 1971.

As of this week, the ripple effects of that warning just grew to wave height.

Back in 2022, we warned that trust in a now weaponized world reserve currency would fall, creating a scenario in which the BRICs+ nations would slowly de-dollarize, thereby weakening the hegemony of the USD in general and the USA in particular.

In the years that immediately followed, de-dollarization became an undeniable current, the momentum of which we have written and spoken with both consistency and conviction ever since. 

Petrodollar Significance

We further warned that there would be gradual, then inevitable, threats to the Petrodollar, an essential pillar of the USD’s hegemony. 

After all, forcing the world to buy oil in USDs (and oil producers to use their oil revenues to buy USTs) is indeed an “exorbitant privilege.” 

The 1974 Petrodollar effectively created a global sponge for otherwise over-produced/printed Greenbacks, which explains why the U.S. could so easily export its inflation to the rest of the world with impunity for decades.

But if that “sponge” ever weakened, so too would dollar supremacy. 

One simply cannot overstate enough how essential the Petrodollar is/was to the USD as a currency and to the USA as a financial hegemon. 

This is why we have been tracking the Petrodollar’s post-2022 cracks here, here, here, here, here and, well… here.

In short: The Petrodollar matters; it really matters.

Petrodollar Cracks

Once the USA weaponized its already over-indebted and increasingly debased Greenback in 2022, we argued that even its oil “allies” at OPEC would eventually rethink their 1974 agreement to sell oil only in dollars. 

As China openly sought a non-dollar oil solution, it was only a matter of time and circumstance before the OPEC nations would move away from the dollar and look east toward the yuan.

And as of this week, it is now apparent that each of these warnings is slowly coming to fruition. 

Petrodollar Uh-Oh Moment: What Happened?

The UAE, one of America’s biggest allies, just ended its OPEC membership while simultaneously announcing to the U.S. Treasury Department that it may begin to sell its oil in other currencies.

Why?

There are many answers, but they all boil down to an increasing distrust of the USD and a decreasing respect for U.S. global hegemony/policy.

When Kissinger made the 1974 Petrodollar deal with the Saudis, for example, it was effectively a handshake deal made at knifepoint—i.e., a coerced arrangement in which the U.S. promised military protection to the OPEC members in exchange for their forced sale of oil in Greenbacks.

Fast forward some 50 years later, however, and that overly-indebted USD and increasingly impotent UST are not nearly as attractive/strong as they were in the early 1970’s.

Furthermore, the “threat of the Soviet” in 1974 is not the same in 2026 as it was in 1974. 

Nations like the UAE and Saudi Arabia are no longer worried about a red star over Riyadh or Abu Dhabi, but they are certainly aware of the U.S. missiles crisscrossing their current skies in what, at least to many and for now, feels like an absolute military fiasco led by an increasingly desperate U.S.

The OPEC nations see a rich oil market in China and debt-soaked bully in an America who already has its own oil. 

The UAE (already tilting into the BRICs coalition since 2024 and selling oil to India in rupees rather than dollars) is now the first nation to openly reveal that it is tired of being the dog wagged by a Petrodollar tail. 

Meanwhile, even Saudi Arabia has been flirting with China for years, considering oil sales in yuan rather than dollars.

The Petrodollar: What Its Cracks Mean for the Greenback

All of this is a direct threat to an America which always assumed the world would follow its orders to buy oil in dollars and hoard USTs like dutiful serfs. 

But China is no longer a serf, and has sold 48% of its USTs while looking for non-dollar oil.

As I argued earlier this year from Vancouver, John Connally’s infamous (and arrogant) declaration to the world in the 1970’s that it was “our dollar but your problem” would turn out to be an historically embarrassing and short-sighted homage to hubris before the fall.

Today, Uncle Sam’s dollar is his dollar and his problem” for the simple reason that after 50+ years of deficit spending, inflation, exporting, and oil-driven wars of “freedom and democracy,” the world no longer trusts or wants that dollar.

The Petrodollar: What Its Cracks Mean for Gold

In fact, ever since 2014, when U.S. money printing became addictive rather than “temporary,” nations slowly lost faith in Uncle Sam’s “exorbitant privilege.” They began net-buying gold (blue line) and net dumping USTs (red line) that very same year:

By 2022, of course, the net-stacking of gold by global central banks went from incremental to exponential. 

Between then and now, central bank gold stacking has increased by 5X, acting as an open middle finger to the USD and UST.

Furthermore, ever since the USA weaponized the dollar in 2022, the BIS has made gold a tier-one asset, a nd even the TBTF commercial banks like UBS, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan (once intentionally complicit in downplaying gold) are now structurally bullish on the “pet rock.”

In short, the combined forces of 1) a debased and weaponized dollar, 2) a negative real-yielding UST, 3) undeniable de-dollarization trends, 4) unsustainable U.S. public debt levels, 5) a disastrous war in Iran, and 6) a now openly failing Petrodollar make it obvious (rather than debatable) that demand for, and trust in, the USD is tanking.

This slow, but oh-so predictable devolution from U.S. superpower and super-currency to a debt-desperate, debased fall is as old and familiar as history itself, a cycle I explained years ago.

Without a powerful Petrodollar to absorb its inflated and over-expanded Greenback, America’s economic and currency fall will only accelerate going forward.

As the world (and that includes a crumbling OPEC) increasingly turns its back on USDs and USTs, American bond yields and U.S. debt levels will rise as USD purchasing power falls, creating the perfect setup for more mouse-clicked trillions and a stagflation backdrop of historic proportions.

The inevitable monetary and fiscal “accommodation” (i.e., money printing) to “support” a tanking Main Street economy and entirely Fed-centralized S&P will only accelerate the debasement of an already openly debased USD.

This dollar expansion/debasement will act as a massive tailwind to gold in the years to come.

As we’ve argued for years, the inevitable decline in paper currencies fully explains the rise in physical gold, which, not so coincidentally, saw more than 50 all-time highs in 2025, for the simple reason that paper currencies were falling with equal panache.

Toward this end, the bull market in gold has only just begun. 

Gold’s staying power and secular direction North (despite recent forced sell-offs) is effectively guaranteed for the simple reason that the fate of a paper currency system, debased in a backdrop of a decaying credit cycle, is now equally (and historically) unavoidable. 

What we are seeing in the crumbling OPEC membership is a slow shift from dollar-backed oil to nations who will be net-settling more of their regional currency oil trades in gold, whose market cap is only a tiny fraction of the global oil market.

Slowly, gold will not only store value better than a distrusted and debased USD, but t will rise in prominence (and price) in the global oil trade.

After all, oil net-settled in gold is far less volatile than dollar-settled oil. 

If we can see this, so can the oil nations of the OPEC cartel. Their move away from the dollar will be slow but brutal to a USD whose supremacy has been slowly declining for years.

After decades of hegemony, the USD is losing trust not only among American Main Streets, central banks, commercial banks, and oil nations, but also among all of us who understand the history of currency debasement, the math of gold, the theft of inflation, and the dishonesty of policymakers

In short: What we saw this week with the UAE’s infamous OPEC exit is just further confirmation of the dollar’s gradual end-game and the first innings of gold (and silver’s) winning game.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 14:45

As Anthropic Entertains Offers At $900 Billion Valuation, OpenAI CFO Swears There's A 'Vertical Wall Of Demand'

Anyone that's ever spent serious time with Anthropic's Claude - particularly after being a GPT user - can understand why the Trump administration just did a major about-face after a Pentagon spat led to the company's blacklisting as a "supply chain risk." 

Two months after the Pentagon moved to several all ties with the AI wunderkind, the National Security Agency (NSA), which falls under DoW, had to have access to Anthropic's 'Mythos' model - the company's most powerful model to date - which according to internal warnings could “hack every major system." And of course, Treasury has to have it too. 

So they've got a public-facing Claude that kicks GPT ass at workflow tasks and provides valuable insights (try spinning up multiple Claudes at once, assigning them jobs, and having them talk...), and a scary private ZeroCool level hacker Claude (Mythos) that the government is scrambling to get their hands on - while the Pentagon is standing around holding their dick after that "supply chain" tantrum. No wonder Anthropic was willing to call their bluff. 

Don't sleep on them though...

Same guy who allegedly laundered payments to Stefan Halper as part of the illegal operation to spy on and take down President Trump? Interesting choice. https://t.co/Yiou3VruYm

— Ezra A. Cohen (@EzraACohen) May 1, 2026

Anyhow - roughly a week after Bloomberg reported that Google committed to invest $10 billion - and Amazon $5 billion - at a $350 billion valuation, the outlet now reports that Anthropic is entertaining offers from investors at more than $900 billion. 

Anthropic had previously resisted several inbound proposals from investors for a new round at a valuation of $800 billion or more, Bloomberg News has reported.

The new discussions, which have not been reported, coincide with a push by Anthropic to ramp up fundraising amid the breakout success of its AI software. Anthropic, which Bloomberg has reported is considering an initial public offering as soon as October, has been on the hunt for more infrastructure to meet growing demand for its products. -Bloomberg

So things are going well for CEO Dario Amodei and crew. 

Meanwhile Live look a Sam Altman

On the other side of the AI race, OpenAI is pushing back on concerns about missing internal targets. 

In a Thursday interview with Bloomberg, CFO Sarah Friar insisted that was a nothingburger, and that there's a "vertical wall of demand" for their products.

"We feel like we’re beating our plan at the highest level," she said. "How we get there often moves around period to period, because this is still a young business that is not perfectly forecastable across every single metric."

Friar acknowledged that the company has ambitious internal “stretch goals” that can be different than the ones it shares publicly. But the popularity of OpenAI’s products continues to grow, she said. This month, OpenAI said its coding agent Codex hit 4 million weekly users — up from 3 million two weeks earlier.

“Every company I’ve ever been inside of in my entire CFO life, and as an analyst, always has stretch goals — always,” she said. “And if you don’t have those stretch goals, I feel like, actually, you’re not doing your job as a CFO.”

Friar has held various positions at companies including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Salesforce Inc., Nextdoor Holdings Inc. and Square Inc., now known as Block Inc. -Bloomberg

On Tuesday, the WSJ reported that OpenAI missed its own targets for both new users and revenue, - after which Sarah Friar reportedly told other company leaders that she is worried the company might not be able to pay for future computing contracts if revenue doesn’t grow fast enough. In other words, that $1.5 trillion OpenAI had pledged to spend on various data centers, GPUs and memory chips... you can kiss all that goodbye.

So, Thursday was damage control for Tuesday, and Anthropic is the homecoming queen.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 14:20

Top US General Signals Russia Is Helping Iran In War

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The highest-ranking U.S. general on Thursday signaled that the Russian government is assisting the Iranian regime in its war with the United States.

In comments before Senate Armed Services Committee, Gen. Dan Caine, the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, responded in an affirmative manner to a question from the panel’s chairman, Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Ala.), about whether there is Russian involvement.

“General Caine, there’s no question that Vladimir Putin’s Russia is taking serious action to undermine our efforts for success in Iran. Is there any question about that?” Wicker asked the general.

Without going into detail, Caine said, “I think there’s actions and activities. [I’m] mindful of the hearing room we’re in, but there’s, there’s, there’s definitely some action there."

Meanwhile, Iran’s regime said on Thursday it would respond with attacks on U.S. military positions if Washington renewed attacks on the country in the midst of a ceasefire and a U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports. The country’s leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said in a statement through state-run media that it would assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, which could complicate plans to reopen the key waterway.

Any U.S. attack on Iran, even if limited, will usher in “long and painful strikes” on America’s regional positions, a senior Revolutionary Guards ​official said. “We’ve seen what happened to your regional bases, we will see the same thing happen to your warships,” Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force Commander Majid Mousavi was quoted by Iranian media as saying.

Earlier this week, Iran’s foreign minister traveled to Russia to meet with Putin. “As you can see, we have always had close consultations with Russia and have had continuous and bilateral consultations on a wide range of issues, especially regional issues,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a Telegram post on April 27.

As for Beijing’s support of Tehran, U.S. President Donald Trump said that he believes the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) influence is limited. The CCP has long done business with the clerical regime that has ruled Iran since the 1979 revolution.

“I think maybe helping, but I don’t think much,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News on April 26 when he was asked about any Chinese aid to Iran. “I think China could have been much worse than they’ve been, so I don’t consider them having been very bad.”

Oil prices have sharply increased since the war began on Feb. 28, driving inflation and sending pump prices to painful levels ​worldwide. Meanwhile, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that if the disruption caused by the closure dragged on through mid-year, global growth would fall, inflation would rise, and tens of millions more people would be pushed into ​poverty and extreme hunger.

“The longer this vital artery is choked, the harder it will be to reverse the damage,” he told reporters in New York on Thursday.

Inside the United States, the price for a gallon of regular gasoline nationwide reached $4.30, according to the American Automotive Association (AAA). Data from the organization show that a gallon of diesel reached $5.49.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 14:00

Robot Dives 1.5 Miles, Maps French Shipwreck With 86,000 Images And Recovers Artifacts

Authored by Neetika Walter via Interesting Engineering,

A remotely operated robot has retrieved artifacts from a 16th-century shipwreck more than 1.5 miles beneath the Mediterranean, offering a glimpse into how precision deep-sea robotics is transforming underwater exploration. Guided from a support vessel above, the system used camera-fed navigation and robotic pincers to maneuver across fragile debris fields, capture high-resolution imagery, and recover centuries-old objects without disturbing the surrounding site.

ROV C 4000 remotely operated vehicle designed for deep-sea missions up to 2.5 miles.Thibaud MORITZ / AFP via Getty Images

The mission, led by the French Navy and underwater archaeologists, centers on a wreck known as Camarat 4, discovered during a routine seabed survey. The site lies at extreme depth, where pressure, darkness, and limited access make human intervention impossible.

Operators control the robot through a tethered system, watching live video feeds as it descends for nearly an hour before reaching the seafloor. Once in position, the robot scans the wreck, hovering carefully over scattered cargo and structural remains.

Archaeologists say they discovered by chance what they say are the remains of a 16th-century merchant ship more than 1.5 miles underwater off southern France. National Navy via France's Department of Underwater and Submarine Archaeological Research

According to the CBS News, the vehicle captures thousands of images while navigating tight spaces, helping researchers document the site without physically disturbing it.

At depths exceeding 1.5 miles, the robot operates under extreme pressure of nearly 150 atmospheres, where conventional equipment would fail. Its reinforced structure, stable tether system, and precision controls allow it to function reliably in near-freezing, low-light conditions.

Precision at extreme depth

“You have to be extremely precise so as not to damage the site, so as not to stir up sediment,” a French navy officer said.

That precision is critical. At such depths, even minor disturbances can obscure visibility and damage artifacts that have remained intact for centuries. The robot’s manipulators are designed to operate with minimal force, allowing it to lift fragile objects like ceramic jugs without breakage.

This photograph shows a view of a ceramic jug, recovered from the wreck of the CAMARAT 4, during its analysis at the DRASSM laboratory in Marseille on April 16, 2026. 

The system also records up to eight images per second, generating tens of thousands of visuals during a single mission. These images are later used to construct detailed 3D models of the wreck, enabling researchers to study it remotely.

“The visibility is excellent. You almost can’t tell it’s so deep,” archaeologist Franca Cibecchini said, highlighting the clarity achieved during the operation.

Mapping the unseen world

The wreck is believed to be a merchant vessel that once carried ceramics and metal cargo across Mediterranean trade routes. Archaeologists say such discoveries are rare, particularly at this depth.

“We don’t have very detailed texts about merchant ships in the 16th century, so this is a valuable source of information on maritime history,” lead archaeologist Marine Sadania said.

In addition to historical insights, the mission showcases how robotics is expanding the boundaries of exploration. The robot’s ability to revisit the site, capture data, and retrieve objects with minimal disruption marks a shift toward non-invasive underwater archaeology.

“It’s one of the deepest objects ever recovered from a wreck in France,” Sadania told AFP, referring to one of the ceramic finds brought to the surface.

As deep-sea robotics continues to evolve, such systems are expected to play a larger role not only in archaeology but also in subsea inspection, resource mapping, and environmental monitoring.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 13:20

Tune In To Tonight's Fertilizer Debate: How Bad Will It Get?

As we covered earlier this week, Goldman Sachs analysts now say the fertilizer disruption is larger than expected, with nitrogen markets taking the brunt. Urea prices have risen 50% to 70% since the conflict began. Goldman’s Duffy Fischer wrote that “nitrogen fertilizer is the most impacted chemical chain,” adding that the scale of disruption is “greater than we originally expected.”

And signs of improvement have yet to reveal themselves…

As the U.S.–Iran conflict enters its seventh week, ZeroHedge, in partnership with the Macro Dirt Podcast, will host a debate tonight focused on the implications for agriculture, inflation, and global supply chains.

The discussion features former Bridgewater head of commodities Alex Campbell, Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital, and is hosted by Tony Greer and Jared Dillian.

Johnson appeared with Marc Faber and Adam Taggart on an Iran-focused ZeroHedge debate earlier this month and announced that his fund was loading up on fertilizer producers, arguing that even if Hormuz were to open today, he believes the supply shock has yet to be felt and will be severe.

And, of course… Hormuz remains closed.

The hike in prices is already flowing through to earnings. U.S. producers CF Industries and Nutrien are positioned to benefit, supported by relatively stable domestic natural gas costs. Goldman estimates that every $50-per-ton increase in urea prices adds roughly $800 million in annualized EBITDA for CF. Since late February, U.S. Gulf urea prices have climbed about $234 per ton.

Pressure is also building in phosphate markets. U.S. prices, which initially lagged, are now up roughly 23% since the start of the conflict. At the same time, sulfur prices have reached record highs, forcing production curtailments and tightening supply further as input costs rise.

Potash remains less affected for now. Supply routes through the Red Sea have stayed open, and North American supply remains ample, limiting near-term upside.

Join us tonight to see how you should be positioning your portfolio to be better prepared for the coming inflationary shock.

7pm ET here on the ZeroHedge homepage, X feed, and YouTube channel.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 13:00

Google DeepMind Veteran Raises $1.1 Billion For AI That Doesn't Train On Human Data

Authored by Jason Nelson via decrypt.io,

In brief

• DeepMind veteran David Silver raised $1.1 billion for his new startup Ineffable Intelligence at a $5.1 billion valuation.
• Silver says reinforcement learning, not large language models, is the best path to superintelligence.
• The startup aims to build AI “superlearners” that learn through simulations and self-play.

David Silver, the DeepMind scientist behind AlphaGo’s historic 2016 win over world Go champion Lee Sedol, has raised $1.1 billion to launch a startup betting that the next era of AI won’t come from today’s dominant technology.

Image: Shutterstock/Decrypt

Silver’s company, Ineffable Intelligence, launched in January at a $5.1 billion valuation and is betting on reinforcement learning, a method where AI systems improve through trial and error. Silver argues that approach, rather than the large language models now dominating the field, offers a more credible route to superintelligence.

“I think of our mission as making first contact with superintelligence,” Silver told Wired. “By superintelligence, I really mean something incredible. It should discover new forms of science or technology or government or economics for itself.”

Popularized by philosopher Nick Bostrom in his 2014 book “Superintelligence,” the term refers to AI that surpasses human intelligence across nearly all domains, while artificial general intelligence, or AGI, describes systems capable of matching human-level reasoning across a wide range of tasks.

Silver argues that large language models are fundamentally limited because they learn from human-generated data, instead of building their own understanding through experience.

“Human data is like a kind of fossil fuel that has provided an amazing shortcut,” he said. “You can think of systems that learn for themselves as a renewable fuel—something that can just learn and learn and learn forever, without limit.”

Silver has spent much of his career advancing that argument. AlphaGo, which combined human training data with reinforcement learning and self-play, developed strategies that surprised even top human players and demonstrated how AI can exceed human precedent in narrow domains.

“I feel it's really important that there is an elite AI lab that actually focuses a hundred percent on this approach,” he told Wired. “That it’s not just a corner of another place dedicated to LLMs.”

Ineffable Intelligence plans to build what Silver calls “superlearners”—AI agents placed inside simulations where they can pursue goals, fail, adapt, and improve without the limits of a static human dataset. Silver declined to describe what those simulations would look like, but said the approach would allow agents to collaborate and develop capabilities autonomously.

Silver argued that large language models are limited by the data they are trained on, adding that a model trained in a world where everyone believed the Earth was flat would likely keep that belief unless it could test reality for itself. A system that learns through experience, he said, could discover otherwise.

Ineffable Intelligence did not immediately respond to a request for comment by Decrypt.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 12:40

Trump Says Spirit Airlines Rescue Still In Review, Final Proposal Coming

Summary: 

• Trump says Spirit received the final proposal for the lifeline deal 

• WSJ reported that bankrupt Spirit Airlines was preparing to shutter operations 

President Trump comments on Spirit Airlines:

• TRUMP: GAVE SPIRIT FINAL PROPOSAL

• TRUMP SAYS US STILL LOOKING AT SPIRIT, WILL GIVE FINAL PROPOSAL

• TRUMP SAYS TRYING TO HELP SPIRIT, CITING JOBS 

• TRUMP SAYS WILL HAVE SOMETHING ON SPIRIT TODAY OR TOMORROW 

WSJ Reports Spirit Airlines Prepares To Shutter Operations 

The Wall Street Journal reports that bankrupt Spirit Airlines is preparing to wind down operations after failing to secure a $500 million lifeline from the Trump administration.

WSJ reports:

The ailing budget airline had been hoping to finalize a $500 million lifeline from the government before running out of cash. The discount carrier hasn't been able to get sufficient support between certain bondholders and the government to secure the funding to keep it in business, people familiar with the matter said.

News last week raised hopes that Spirit would secure a rescue deal of up to $500 million from the Trump administration, which could have left the federal government with 90% control.

A reporter asked Trump last week: "Is the government going to buy a stake in Spirit Airlines?"

The president responded: "So we are looking at Spirit. It's in bankruptcy court. And we're looking, if we could get it for the right price..."

Polymarket odds:

US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?

//--> //--> US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?
Yes 19% · No 81%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31?

//--> //-->

Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31?
Yes 79% · No 22%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 12:39

Bessent Unloads On Iran Leadership 'Rats,' Lists 5 Pressure Points As US Blockade Means Clock Is Ticking Summary

• US Treasury goes after Hormuz payment fees, sanctioning  three Iranian foreign currency exchange houses. Bessent issues pressure points against Iranian 'rats'.

• White House officials argue the current absence of fighting between Iranian & US forces means the 60-day timeline for Congressional approval (or US forces must leave) doesn't apply due to the ceasefire.

• Trump on Friday rejects Iran's latest revised proposal to Pakistan mediators. Nuclear issue not included: a non-starter, and focus is on ending the war. Israeli officials balk.

• Iran economically squeezed, signs of divided response among leadership, but surviving: "Weeks of conflict have aggravated Iran's dire economic problems, risking calamity after the war, but the Islamic Republic looks able to survive a standoff in the Gulf for now." (Rtrs)

• Alternative routes emerge: "Iran cannot be besieged; We have different ways to export and import," Iranian official says.

//--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 37% · No 64%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Trump Rejects Latest Iran Proposal

In fresh Friday words to reporters, President Trump says he is not satisfied with the latest proposal from Iran. He further stated that these negotiations "are not getting there right now." His main points via Newsquawk:

• Iran wants a deal, but i am not satisfied.
• Iran has no military left.
• Talks with Iran are by phone.
• Made strides in talks with Iran.
• Not sure we are going to get to a deal.
• Not happy with Italy or Spain on Iran.
• Iran leaders do not get along with each other.

Bessent Lists 5 Pressures Iranian 'Rats' Facing

US Treasury Secretary Bessent takes to X on Friday to again call Iranian leaders "rats" - which won't bode well for restarting stalled negotiations. He's busy boasting on the economic damage unleashed by the ongoing US naval blockade, writing: "It is very difficult for rats in a sewer pipe to know what's going on in the outside world. Some color for the Iranian Leadership as they literally sit in the dark." He then lists out the following:

1. The United States has complete control of the Strait of Hormuz.

2. There is a hard currency, i.e. U.S. dollar, shortage.

3. Food and gasoline rationing are in place.

4. The entire international community has turned against you.

5. The BLOCKADE will continue, until there is pre-February 27 Freedom of Navigation.

He also shared a WSJ article proclaiming that the Iranians have 'failed' to roll back the US military blockade, and that supposedly the clock is ticking on the government's ability to rule...

It is very difficult for rats in a sewer pipe to know what’s going on in the outside world. Some color for the Iranian Leadership as they literally sit in the dark:

1. The United States has complete control of the Strait of Hormuz.

2. There is a hard currency, i.e. U.S. dollar,… https://t.co/oNHVEvdNE4

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) May 1, 2026

Israel To Renew Bombing if Nuclear Issue Not Dealt With

The Netanyahu government is signaling that it will restart the bombing campaign if the nuclear issue is not resolved. It should also not be forgotten that 'denuclearizing' Iran by force has been a multi-decade priority of Prime Minister Netanyahu and the hardliners of Israel. These are the latest warnings out of the Israeli military establishment on Friday:

An Israeli military official says that if Iran's stockpile of more than 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% is not removed from the Islamic Republic, the entire latest war will be considered “one big failure.”

Israeli officials have said that this stockpile is sufficient for 11 nuclear bombs.

And the Times of Israel underscores further, "The senior officer says that if, as part of negotiations between the United States and Iran, no agreement is reached to remove the uranium stockpile and halt enrichment in the country, the achievements in the 40 days of fighting will have been for nothing." So this means that "If the nuclear objective is not achieved, then everything we did in Iran will be one big failure. The evil Iranian regime can pounce on the nuclear program," the official emphasized. And then the threat...

The officer adds that "if the uranium is removed from Iran through diplomatic means, we have done our part." However, if that does not happen, Israel would need to launch another operation in Iran to achieve the objective, they say.

Already Israel has demonstrated its immense influence over the decision to go to war in the first place.

US Treasury Hits Back Against Hormuz Tolls

The OFAC notice on ­Hormuz payment sanctions: Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is designating three Iranian foreign currency exchange houses and their associated front companies as part of Economic Fury and Treasury’s ongoing efforts to disrupt the Iranian regime’s financial lifelines that sustain its war effort.  Collectively, Iranian exchange houses facilitate billions of dollars in foreign currency transactions each year.  Because Iran primarily settles its oil sales in Chinese yuan, these exchange houses play a critical role in converting oil revenues into currencies that are more readily useable by the Iranian military and its partners and proxies. 

"Iran is the head of the snake for global terrorism, and under President Trump’s leadership, Treasury is moving aggressively, through Economic Fury, to sever the Iranian military’s financial lifelines," said Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent. "We will relentlessly target the regime’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds, and pursue anyone enabling Tehran’s attempts to evade sanctions."

War Powers: 60 Days

There's common agreement that today: Friday, May 1st, constitutes the 60-day mark on Operation Epic Fury. But President Trump and his administration are trying to sidestep the 1973 law which requires a president to withdraw troops within 60 days of notifying Congress of their deployment unless lawmakers formally authorize the military action as a declaration of war. Of course, thus far there's been no Congressional authorization, amid some six failed attempts to push through War Powers resolutions.

The administration is now arguing that the extended ceasefire itself, reached three weeks ago and then recently unilaterally extended by Trump, buys more time and allows the White House to avoid Congressional approval. Admin officials argue the absence in exchanges of fire between Iranian and US forces means the 60-day timeline doesn't apply.

"For War Powers Resolution purposes, the hostilities that began on Saturday, February ​28, have terminated," a Trump official has been cited broadly in US media as saying. The same perspective had first been put forward by Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth during his hearing before the House Armed Services Committee on Thursday:

Answering questions from senators on Thursday, Hegseth said: "We are in a ceasefire right now, which our understanding means the 60-day clock pauses or stops in a ceasefire."

The questioner, Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, responded: "I do not believe the statute would support that. I think the 60 days runs maybe tomorrow, and it's going to pose a really important legal question for the administration there."

The debate over mainstream airwaves is also about to grow fiercer as the war slides with no clear articulated grand US strategy...

Wow Scott Jennings blows up at Adam Mockler: “Get your fucking hand out of my face”

Mockler: We all know that Scott Jennings is more than happy to defend a war with a country that starts with letters Ira that we are currently failing that is going to put us trillions and… pic.twitter.com/NjYu6Ij5z1

— Acyn (@Acyn) May 1, 2026

Talks Back at Square One

Iran has reportedly submitted its latest revised proposal to Pakistan mediators as of Thursday night. It is a response to the latest US amendments to end the war, per Axios. So the conflict is two-months deep, talks are completely stalled, global energy transit through the Hormuz Strait is at a bare trickle to non-existent as the US naval blockade is enforced and while international vessels are still under looming threat of attack by Iran, and there's still no sign of an offramp coming anytime soon.

To review, and as we wrote previously, next fall's midterms staring Congressional Republicans in the face, there this increasingly uncomfortable trend: "The average price of one gallon (3.8 litres) of gasoline in the United States has reached $4.30, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), up from less than $3 before the February 28 start of the US-Israel war on Iran." President Trump's response to this in fielding questions in the Oval Office on Thursday was to tell reporters that ​gas ​prices would "drop like ⁠a rock" ​as soon ​as the Iran war ended. He said: "The [price of] gasoline and the oil will go down rapidly once the war’s over," and at one point emphasized prices would go down "like a rock."

Important development via Al Jazeera confirming that nuclear issue is a non-starter for Iran:

Proposals resurface: Tehran presented a new proposal to the Pakistani mediator yesterday, a diplomatic source told me. He added that nuclear negotiations will not succeed under these circumstances and that the focus will likely shift to ending the war.

Fresh activity on X:

Iran Squeezed But Surviving

We've been reporting on the collapsing Iranian rial and US officials' hopes that the engineered crisis and economic warfare would force Iranians into the streets to overthrow their own government - which is a plan that already failed to produce enough momentum previously, and even under heavy US-Israeli bombs.

Reuters on Friday describes, "Weeks of conflict have aggravated Iran's dire economic problems, risking calamity after the war, but the Islamic Republic looks able to survive a standoff in the Gulf for now, despite a U.S. blockade that has cut off energy exports." It's an enduring stalemate, with the Iran war and Hormuz closure now being a game of geopolitical chicken, where each side believes it can inflict more pain on the other while being the one to outlast.

There's been talk of Pakistan having opened up its border, as well as increased use of Caspian trade routes - especially for vital goods like food, medicines, and factory or other parts. But WSJ freshly explains that "Alternative trade routes won’t be sufficient. Iran has been working to send some of its oil by rail to China and to import foodstuff by road from the Caucasus and Pakistan. Only 40% of Iran’s trade can be redirected away from blockaded ports, the Iranian Shipping Association said Thursday via the Fars news agency, which is affiliated with Iran’s security services."

The U.S. Air Force logistics bridge into the Middle East continues at a steady pace with at least 11 C-17A "Globemaster IIIs" active this morning. pic.twitter.com/x0ffxvqHpT

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) May 1, 2026

The report then speculates on what's going on internally in Iran's government and leadership, and calculations on how much economic pain Iranian society can take as renewed fighting looms, also as Israel is said to be preparing for more rounds of attack:

The risk of a spiraling crisis has split Iran’s political system between moderates such as President Masoud Pezeshkian and hard-liners including Saeed Jalili, a former presidential candidate who leads Iran’s most conservative faction.

The moderates believe in holding fire and negotiating a favorable deal with President Trump, whom they view as eager to get out of the messy war as soon as possible. They worry Iranians are growing tired of the conflict after an initial nationalist uptick.

“The regime has to do something to break this deadlock,” Saeid Golkar, who studies Iran at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. “Moderates want a deal because they think more destruction is political suicide,” he said.

While some Iranian officials have touted the country has more of its air force left than what the Pentagon asserts, it remains that Tehran doesn't appear capable of inflicting serious damage on the significant US naval blockade, other than through asymmetric or drone warfare.

Caspian Sea alternative...

⭕️ Iran Focuses on Caspian Sea Transit Amid Hormuz Blockade

Iran’s Food Industry Associations Union says there is currently no food security crisis in the country, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed — with only four vessels passing through yesterday, according to a… pic.twitter.com/teYL8iuMGm

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) April 27, 2026

More Latest Developments

via Newsquawk

• US President Trump is expected to make a decision on the path forward [on Iran] in the coming days, NBC reported citing a US official.
• US President Trump said would not have approved enriched Uranium for Iran; needs guarantees Iran will not have a nuclear weapon ever. Hormuz blockade is 100% effective.
• A senior Trump administration official said that for War Power Resolution purposes, hostilities that began on February 28th have been terminated.
• Iranian Judiciary head said Iran does not accept negotiation based on imposition; adds Iran has never left the negotiating table, Iranian press reported.
• Iranian National Security Commission member Rezei said "we are currently in the second phase of the war with the enemy..the naval blockade is a continuation of the war.. we are not in a ceasefire situation now", Mehr reported.
• Full post: "Iran cannot be besieged; We have different ways to export and import. In a conversation with Mehr, Ebrahim Rezaei said: "The enemy has turned to our naval blockade after failing in the military war and direct confrontation, and we are currently in the second phase of the war with the enemy." In other words, the naval blockade is a continuation of the war that the Americans have started against us. So, we are not in a ceasefire situation now. A member of the National Security Commission of the Majlis, stating that the Americans do not have the operational capacity to blockade Iran by sea, said: "Our only access route for transit is not through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.".
• US CENTCOM Commander Cooper briefed President Trump for 45 minutes on new operational plans for potential strikes against Iran, Axios' Ravid reported citing sources.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said that it is not responsible to expect a quick conclusion of the negotiations and that the other party has not used the opportunity provided by Iran's proposal, must be ready for any eventuality. The US and Israeli regime are famous for breaking their promises and the biggest guarantee for not repeating the war is the power of Iran.
• Drone attack hits Iranian Kurdish opposition camp east of Iraq's Erbil, according to Reuters, citing security sources. via vv.
• The defense sound heard over Tehran is related to countering micro-birds and reconnaissance drones, via Tasnim.
• Air defence sounds are being heard in some areas of Tehran but reasons are unclear, Mehr News reported.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 12:25