Clinton-Appointed Federal Judge Tosses Trump's Order Halting Wind Energy Projects

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge on Dec. 8 vacated President Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 executive order that halted federal permitting and leasing for wind energy projects, saying it violated U.S. law.

U.S. District Judge Patti Saris of the District of Massachusetts ruled in favor of a coalition of state attorneys general from 17 states and the District of Columbia, which argued that federal efforts to halt authorization for wind energy projects violated the Administrative Procedure Act because the agencies failed to provide reasoned explanations for their actions.

Trump’s order directs federal agencies to halt approvals and leasing for all new offshore wind power projects pending a comprehensive review.

In a 47-page ruling, Saris stated that the order’s indefinite suspension of wind energy project authorizations violates a statutory requirement that agencies proceed to conclude matters “within a reasonable time.”

“No permits have [been] issued since the wind order was promulgated, and the agency defendants acknowledge that they will not issue any permits at least until they complete the comprehensive assessment, for which there is no timeline,” the judge stated. “That action is contrary to law.”

The judge also noted that federal agencies failed to provide “a reasoned explanation” for halting wind project authorizations, even as they were carrying out the president’s directive.

“Given that the wind order constitutes a change of course from decades of agencies’ issuing (or denying) permits related to wind energy projects, the agency defendants were required, at minimum, to ‘provide a reasoned explanation for the change’ and to ‘display awareness that (they were) changing position.’ They failed to do so,” Saris stated.

Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell, part of the coalition in the lawsuit, hailed the ruling as a “critical victory” for the states.

“Massachusetts has invested hundreds of millions of dollars into offshore wind, and today, we successfully protected those important investments from the Trump Administration’s unlawful order,” Campbell said in a statement.

New York Attorney General Letitia James welcomed the ruling and said there is a need to develop more energy sources, including wind energy, amid rising costs.

“I am grateful the court stepped in to block the administration’s reckless and unlawful crusade against clean energy,” she added.

White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers defended Trump’s directive, saying that offshore wind projects were given “unfair, preferential treatment” under the Biden administration while other energy sources faced burdensome regulations.

“President Trump has ended Joe Biden’s war on American energy and unleashed America’s energy dominance to protect our economic and national security,” Rogers said in a statement.

Trump has pushed to increase U.S. use of fuel and coal energy sources in a move to reduce reliance on foreign supply. On July 7, Trump signed an executive order to end federal subsidies for wind and solar energy projects, citing their unreliability and dependence on foreign-controlled supply chains.

The order states that such renewable energy sources are expensive, compromise the nation’s electric grid, and threaten national security. It instructs the Interior Department to review and eliminate regulations that give preferential treatment to wind and solar projects.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 14:40

Trump Threatens Tariff Increase On Mexico Over Rio Grande Water Dispute

President Donald Trump weighed in on a decades-old border water dispute on Monday, saying he would impose a 5 percent tariff hike on Mexican imports if the country fails to swiftly deliver the water it owes from the Rio Grande.

The ultimatum is designed to help struggling U.S. farmers, especially in Texas, amid alleged treaty violations over the past five years.

In a post on social media, Trump underscored an alleged 800,000 acre-feet debt from the recently ended cycle, demanding the release of 200,000 acre-feet before Dec. 31 and additional volumes shortly after.

The president highlighted the impact on Texas agriculture, where insufficient water undermines crop yields and livestock sustainability.

“As of now, Mexico is not responding, and it is very unfair to our U.S. Farmers who deserve this much needed water,” Trump said on Truth Social on Monday.

“That is why I have authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico if this water isn’t released, IMMEDIATELY.”

As Kimberley Hayek reports for The Epoch Times, Mexico has in the past cited significant drought conditions curtailing its capacity.

The 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty regulates shared resources from the Rio Grande, Colorado, and Tijuana rivers.

For the Rio Grande segment south of Fort Quitman, Texas, the agreement states that the United States would receive one-third of flows from six Mexican tributaries—Conchos, San Diego, San Rodrigo, Escondido, Salado, and Las Vacas Arroyo—with a guaranteed minimum average of 350,000 acre-feet per year, or 1.75 million over each five-year cycle. The agreement allotted Mexico two-thirds of those flows, as well as allocations from U.S. tributaries, including the Pecos and Devils rivers.

In April, Trump criticized Mexico, threatening tariffs or sanctions if the country failed to adhere to the terms of the treaty.

“Mexico has been stealing the water from Texas farmers,” he posted at the time, pledging to “keep escalating consequences, including tariffs and, maybe even sanctions, until Mexico honors the Treaty, and gives Texas the water they are owed!”

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum highlighted the ongoing drought but vowed to help resolve the issue. Mexico said it would draw from its reserves and increase flows from the six tributaries through October, as announced by U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. IBWC data, however, showed deliveries came in at approximately 730,000 acre-feet by mid-2025, 42 percent short of the 1.75 million obligation.

A history of lenient enforcement, hydrological changes, and rapid population increase in Mexico has been blamed for the current conditions.

Evan Ellis, a Latin American studies professor at the U.S. Army War College, said the current situation can be attributed to “years of looking the other way” by the United States.

The treaty allows for deferrals only during “extraordinary drought,” which is left undefined but requires repayment in the following cycle.

In March, the United States rejected Mexico’s request for Colorado River water diversions to Tijuana, noting Rio Grande shortfalls. It is the first time the country has denied such a request under the treaty.

The Texas agricultural sector depends on consistent water supplies, and the allocation shortfalls have led members of Congress to introduce bills proposing fund withholdings until remedies are secured.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 14:20

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More on the “Neutral” Interest Rate (R*)

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Executive Summary: Policymakers and financial analysts looking for “models” as a guide for assessing the neutral interest rate are faced with a dilemma: various models produce significantly different results, and it is far from clear which if any model is the “most” accurate. While it is perhaps interesting to note that the average R* estimate from various models available within the Federal Reserve System is currently very close to “market-based” estimates based on TIPS forward rates adjusted for term prema estimates, that may simply be a coincidence.

However, if one takes the approach that the “best guess” estimate of R* is found by looking at the average of various models and the “market’s” assessment of R*, one would come to the conclusion that the current “best guess” estimate of the neutral real rate of interest is very close to 1.5%,

If that is the case, and if, as expected, the FOMC decides to cut its federal funds rate target by 25 bp tomorrow, then the resulting level of the federal funds rate will be very close to the neutral nominal policy rate.

There is much more in the article.

Harvard Hires Graduate Charged With Assaulting Israeli Classmate As Teaching Fellow

Authored by Gabrielle Temaat via The College Fix,

Harvard University recently hired a graduate of its Divinity School who was criminally charged with assaulting an Israeli classmate during an anti-Israel protest. 

Elom Tettey-Tamaklo; Across the Divide/Youtube

Elom Tettey-Tamaklo is now working as a teaching fellow at the school, earning a stipend of up to $11,000, according to The Washington Free Beacon. 

Tettey-Tamaklo’s LinkedIn page states that he advises “faculty on curriculum design” and offers consultation “on complex subject matter by translating expertise in migration and refugee studies.”

In October 2023, a video surfaced showing Tettey-Tamaklo confronting a first-year Israeli business student who can be heard saying “don’t grab me” and “don’t touch my neck.” The student said Tettey-Tamaklo pushed and shoved him. 

In 2024, Tettey-Tamaklo was charged with misdemeanor assault and battery. Then, about a year later, a judge ordered him to complete anger management classes and 80 hours of community service. 

The university did not punish him formally, but Tettey-Tamaklo lost his freshman proctor role because students reported feeling uncomfortable. Still, he was later awarded a $65,000 Harvard Law Review fellowship, according to National Review.

While the case moved through the courts, the Trump administration urged the school to expel him, but it refused, the Free Beacon reported. 

Now he’s on Harvard’s payroll. 

The Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office stated that Harvard refused to cooperate with its investigation, stalled the criminal case, and blocked prosecutors from identifying other individuals involved in the assault.

The school’s conduct in handling the case led the assaulted Israeli student, Yoav Segev, to sue the school in July. 

Segev alleged that Harvard violated his Title VI rights by failing to meaningfully discipline Tettey-Tamaklo and another student involved in the incident, according to The Harvard Crimson. 

However, a federal judge dismissed the lawsuit last week.

“While the court does not condone an assault on a fellow student by campus protestors, nothing in the Amended Complaint plausibly supports the notion that his assailants’ conduct was motivated by race-based antisemitism,” U.S. District Judge Richard Stearns wrote. 

Earlier this year, the Trump administration withheld federal grant funding from Harvard, citing its failure to address rampant antisemitism on campus, The College Fix previously reported. 

In September, however, a U.S. district judge ruled that the Trump administration violated the school’s First Amendment rights by freezing research funding, asserting the government’s actions were aimed at promoting a “governmental orthodoxy” rather than genuinely combating antisemitism.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 14:00

Indoctrination Starts Early: New Book Tells 5-Year-Olds Abortion Is A 'Superpower'

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In a brazen push to normalise the unthinkable, radical abortion activists are now targeting America’s youngest minds with a colorful children’s book that glorifies killing the unborn as some kind of heroic “superpower.”

The extreme left are coming for the kids, framing abortion as destiny-shaping magic in a bid to “rewrite cultural scripts” and stomp out any resistance to their anti-life ideology.

The book, titled Abortion Is Everything, is being peddled by the pro-abortion group Shout Your Abortion (SYA), set to ship in January 2026. Aimed squarely at children aged five to eight, it uses vibrant, water-color style illustrations to hook young imaginations—while slipping in messages that abortion is not just acceptable, but empowering.

?THREAD: A new “children’s book” called Abortion Is Everything is being marketed to 5–8 year olds to “speak directly” to them about abortion.

Yes, you read that correctly.

And the book is downright evil. pic.twitter.com/PRwc36BNbN

— Jenna Ellis ? (@realJennaEllis) December 3, 2025

According to the group’s own description, the book tells children “about what abortion is, how it might feel, and why people have abortions.”

A blurb of the book proclaims that “With accessible, inclusive language, Abortion Is Everything frames abortion as the actualization of a uniquely human superpower: our capacity to imagine the future and make choices that lead us towards the life we envision.”

The book frames abortion as a “superpower” — the ability to imagine a future and “make choices” to create the life we want.

But here’s the truth Scripture teaches: real power is found in loving sacrifice and recognizing the inherent dignity and value in all human beings created… pic.twitter.com/RU2HZByyMs

— Jenna Ellis ? (@realJennaEllis) December 3, 2025

It continues, “Abortion is a tool that allows human beings to shape our destinies, and which has shaped the entire world around us.”

Excerpts reveal the indoctrination tactics, with text stating: “Human beings are different from plants and non-human animals, because we have the ability to IMAGINE our lives many seasons from now… and make CHOICES.” Bright colors and playful drawings accompany this, masking the grim reality of what abortion truly entails.

The book also tells children that “living things reproduce” and “sometimes pregnancy ends” — but it never tells them when human life begins.

Science does: at conception.

And Scripture does: Psalm 139, Jeremiah 1, Luke 1 — God knows, forms, and calls every child in the womb.

— Jenna Ellis ? (@realJennaEllis) December 3, 2025

Parents: This is your reminder that discipleship is not optional.

If activists are creating abortion propaganda for elementary schoolers, you can be sure they are aiming to catechize your children before you do.
Teach them God’s truth before the world sells them a lie made with…

— Jenna Ellis ? (@realJennaEllis) December 3, 2025

And to the creators of this book:

Children don’t need help “imagining” a future without their siblings or friends. They need adults who protect life, who honor God, and who refuse to manipulate their innocence for political gain.

Life is a gift. Abortion is not “everything.”…

— Jenna Ellis ? (@realJennaEllis) December 3, 2025

SYA claims “Parents, caregivers, and educators who work with children have long been searching for a tool to talk with kids about abortion, especially given the volume of political noise currently surrounding the issue.” They position the book as a way to “introduce the concept of abortion in a way that empowers parents and kids to begin rewriting our cultural scripts about abortion at the most foundational level.”

Authored by ‘activist’ Amelia Bonow and artist-educator Rachel Kessler, with illustrations by Emily Nokes, the hardcover is being offered signed for donations of $100 or more to SYA’s year-end campaign. The group, launched in 2016, openly seeks to “normalize abortion and eradicat[e] stigma.”

The authors and illustrator of the new abortion book for toddlers look exactly how you expect … https://t.co/rAIijFj0Cw pic.twitter.com/KokcaPC8xU

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) December 3, 2025

Their mission is described as building “a collective that is committed to aiding and abetting abortion—in the form of elevating resources, funding abortions, sharing information about pills, and saving independent clinics.”

Conservative lawyer and Trump ally Jenna Ellis has slammed the book as “downright evil,” urging “Why even introduce such a violent, adult topic to kids who still sleep with stuffed animals and ask for night lights? Because reshaping morality always starts with shaping the minds of the youngest.”

Ellis tore into SYA’s framing, noting: “SYA claims abortion is just one of three ‘normal’ pregnancy outcomes, like birth and miscarriage. But a miscarriage is a tragedy no mother chooses; abortion is the intentional ending of a child’s life.”

This highlights the hypocrisy of equating a natural loss with deliberate destruction, a tactic straight out of the leftist playbook to desensitize society.

This push comes amid global crackdowns on pro-life expression. The US State Department recently labeled NHS abortions in the UK as human rights violations, criticizing organizations for being “conspicuously silent” on arrests near clinics. Examples abound: An anti-abortion campaigner arrested at a peaceful protest in Cambridge on November 1, and 75-year-old grandmother Rose Docherty hauled into a police van in Glasgow for holding a sign outside a hospital.

US Vice President JD Vance called out these “buffer zone” laws, warning that free speech is “in retreat” in Europe. He spotlighted the conviction of physiotherapist Adam Smith-Connor for praying outside an abortion center in Bournemouth, stating: “I wish I could say that this was a fluke, a one-off, crazy example of a badly written law being enacted against a single person. But no. This last October, [then] just a few months ago, the Scottish Government began distributing letters to citizens whose houses lay within so-called safe access zones, warning them that even private prayer within their own homes may amount to breaking the law.”

By targeting five-year-olds, SYA and their ilk aim to breed a generation numb to life’s sanctity, paving the way for more control. This isn’t education—it’s straight-up leftist brainwashing aimed at eroding family values and life-affirming principles from the cradle.

 

The more this crowd pushes, the more galvanised parents are to reject the radical left’s assault on innocence. True superpowers lie in protecting life, not ending it.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 13:20

Solid 10Y Auction Sees Jump In Foreign Demand, Prices On The Screws

After a solid, but tailing, 3Y auction to start the FOMC week yesterday had little impact on the yield curve, moments ago the Treasury sold $39BN in 10Y paper in another solid auction, which however once again had no impact on the secondary market.  

The auction priced at a high yield of 4.175%, which was up from 4.068% in November and the highest since August. The high yield also priced on the screws with the When Issued which was also at 4.175%. It followed two tailing auctions but for the most part demand has been solid historically with most auction in the past year stopping through.

The bid to cover was solid up to 2.550 from 2.433 and the highest since September; it was also above the recent average 2.51.

Internals were also solid: Foreign buyers took down 70.2%, the highest since September, and above the six auction average of 69.5. And with Directs awarded 20.96%, down modestly from 22.55% in November but in line with the 20.52% recent average, Dealers were left holding 8.8%, the lowest since September.

Overall, this was a good auction with solid demand metrics. Yet in line of the continued hawkish retracement observed across the globe which has lifted yields sharply in recent days, the auction did little to boost rates sentiment and 10Y yields were unchanged in the second market trading around 4.17%, near the highest in three months.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 13:17

As Russia Makes More Gains In East, Trump Concedes "At Some Point, Size Will Win"

Little has changed on the US-proposed peace plan for Ukraine. Zelensky and the Europeans are rejecting it while Trump is calling out the Ukrainian leader, telling him he better "get on the ball" and accept reality.

Not much has changed on the ground either, with battlefield trends pretty much being consistent stretching back many months. Moscow forces keep making gains in the east, major Ukrainian cities struggle to keep the power grid operating, and in return Ukraine keeps sending drones on Russian territory.

via Reuters

The latest drones were sent against the Russian capital itself, though this certainly isn't a first of the war. But it remains rare. Local media is reporting that three drones were destroyed by anti-air systems as they approached Moscow Tuesday evening.

The city's Mayor Sergei Sobyanin announced the intercepts on Telegram, but didn't disclose whether the attack resulted in any casualties or damage on the ground. Emergency crews were dispatched to the locations where the drones fell after being intercepted. 

This is the fourth such Ukrainian drone attack targeting Moscow since November. It could be in 'answer' to Russian forces more heavily targeting the Ukrainian capital of late in missile and drone strikes, which have plunged whole neighborhoods into long periods of darkness.

Le Monde has observed of the current situation in many Ukrainian towns and cities, "While Russian attacks on Ukrainian power plants and electrical infrastructure have continued for three years, they tend to intensify as winter approaches, disrupting the daily lives of residents. Immersed in a darkness punctuated by the hum of generators, people try to maintain a semblance of normalcy."

As for the ground war in the east, Russia's military has been reporting more gains, in the wake of capturing the key city of Pokrovsk:

Russian forces took control of the villages of Kucherivka in Ukraine's northern Kharkiv region and Rivne in the eastern Donetsk region, the Defence Ministry said on Sunday.

Moscow carried out group strikes on Ukrainian transport infrastructure, fuel and energy facilities, military airfields and long-range drone complexes, the ministry added.

Meanwhile, President Trump in a freshly published Politico interview has said Russian forces have the clear upper-hand and so Zelensky should get serious about reviewing and accepting his peace deal.

"It would be nice if he would read it," Trump said of the US peace deal. "You know, a lot of people are dying. So it would be really good if he’d read it."

The number of Russians favouring peace talks is close to an all-time high at 65% (it was 66% in Aug) against 26% who prefer continued hostilities.

The peace camp was steadily expanding since the start of the all-out war. The only time when the pro-war camp briefly prevailed was… pic.twitter.com/WGuatqgplX

— Leonid Ragozin (@leonidragozin) December 9, 2025

Trump seemed to acknowledged this has long been a war of attrition and that no magical battlefield or weapons solutions will tilt things in favor of Kiev. He asserted that Russia has the "upper hand. And they always did. They’re much bigger. They’re much stronger." He described that while the Ukrainians have fought bravely, the reality remains that "At some point, size will win."

Zelensky has been huddling with the European leaders to come up with a counter-plan (which Putin is very unlikely to accept), and said Tuesday that the White House should expect "refined documents on peace" to be submitted soon.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 13:05

Defense Bill Requires Trump Spy Agencies To Declassify COVID-19 Origins Intel, Chinese Obstruction

Slipped into the nearly 3,100-page National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) is a provision that requires "declassification" and "transparency" related to the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, and would require the Trump administration's spy agencies to release its intelligence related to the Wuhan Institute of Virology where COVID research was offshored by the Obama administration in October of 2014 with a grant to EcoHealth Alliance, a New York City nonprofit run by Peter Daszak. 

Chinese Virologist Shi Zhengli of the WIV

In March of 2018, Daszak submitted a grant proposal titled Project DEFUSE (short for "Defusing the Threat of Bat-borne Coronaviruses") to DARPA, which sought to create genetically modified bat coronaviruses with enhanced potential for human infectivity - including features that could enable aerosol (airborne) transmission. The proposal was ultimately rejected by DARPA over safety concerns - however "if funding became available," then certain components of particular interest could proceed.

So, let's see if the NDAA passes with this language - and whether it confirms the above Fauci-funded adventures in Wuhan. Of note, Peter Daszak - unlike Fauci - was not pardoned by former President Joe Biden and the infamous autopen. 

The text of the NDAA - specifically section 6803 of the text, calls on the Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard to work with the heads of all 18 US spy agencies to "perform a declassification review of intelligence" related to "the origins of Coronavirus Disease 2019," and related to "efforts by government officials of entities of the People’s Republic of China" to cover up the origins of the pandemic. 

"DNI Gabbard remains committed to declassifying COVID-19 information and looks forward to continued work with Congress to share the truth about pandemic-era failures with the American people," a DNI spokesperson told Just the News. 

Shi and Daszak clinking glasses, undoubtedly after lots of humanized mice successfully died horrible COVID deaths.

Recall that while the government was locking us down, Dr. Anthony Fauci and those in his orbit were actively fabricating a 'wet market' narrative that would conceal US research as a possible origin - despite his own advisors initially insisting that COVID-19 looked manmade.

Among other things, the NIH helped fund experiments at WIV that infected genetically engineered mice with “chimeric” hybrids of SARS-related bat coronaviruses in what some scientists have described as unacceptably risky research. 

...

Andersen laid them out plainly in an email to Fauci that same evening. “The unusual features of the virus make up a really small part of the genome (<0.1%) so one has to look really closely at all the sequences to see that some of the features (potentially) look engineered,” Andersen wrote in the email. “I should mention,” he added, “that after discussions earlier today, Eddie, Bob, Mike and myself all find the genome inconsistent with expectations from evolutionary theory. But we have to look at this much more closely and there are still further analyses to be done, so those opinions could still change.” -The Intercept

Those who questioned this narrative, including ZeroHedge, were harshly punished - while outlets like the LA Times went so far carrying water for Fauci that it opined "The COVID lab leak claim isn’t just an attack on science, but a threat to public health."

The Trump administration meanwhile has begun a renewed push to get to the bottom of the COVID-19 virus, Just the News reports, adding "there's more and more evidence — including by non-U.S. intelligence agencies — indicating that it came from the Wuhan Institute of Virology."

Yet, a massive pile of intelligence related to the origins of the virus remain classified, and Congress now wants the Trump intelligence community to provide clarity. 

The Chinese government, meanwhile, continues to deflect from the possibility of a Wuhan lab leak, instead pushing the theory that COVID-19 originated from Fort Detrick, a US military base that's home to the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID) and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases' (NIAID) Integrated Research Facility (IRF-Frederick). 

While there is no direct evidence that USAMRIID was involved in pre-pandemic research, the facility has studied SARS-CoV-1 (2003) and MERS-CoV since the early 2000s, including reverse genetics for chimeric viruses and interferon therapies. Collaborations with UNC's Ralph Baric - who created 'humanized mice' for Wuhan scientists to infect, informed later gain-of-function debates but predate SARS-CoV-2. 

In short, it looks like: 

• The US government offshored risky gain-of-function research on bat coronaviruses to Wuhan, China
• The WIV had poor lab security
• American researchers collaborated with WIV scientsts to create chimeric (genetically modified) bat coronaviruses, likely including COVID-19.
• The virus coincidentally escaped just in time to cause a global pandemic that crushed Trump's economic momentum, resulting in vote-by-mail during the 2020 'fraud-free' election that saw Joe Biden receive more votes than any president in US history. 

During Gabbard's Senate confirmation hearing in January, she said that many senators had "expressed bipartisan frustration about recent intelligence failures and the lack of responsiveness to your requests for information," including related to "failures to identify the source of the COVID."

As a result, she established the Director's Initiatives Group (DIG) in April, which has a goal of "investigating weaponization, rooting out deep-seeded politicization, exposing unauthorized disclosures of classified intelligence, and declassifying information that serves a public interest."

An ODNI official told Just the News that Gabbard and her team are working hard to investigate intelligence failures related to COVID-19, including investigating possible suppression of the lab leak hypothesis within the intelligence community and carrying out a wide-ranging review of U.S.-funded gain-of-function research.

The official also said ODNI is coordinating with other spy agency elements such as the FBI and Department of Energy to share details about COVID-19 inquiries.

The ODNI official added that Gabbard’s office had provided Congress with requested documents on COVID origins, including records that were improperly withheld by the Biden Administration. Gabbard’s office is also interviewing whistleblowers and weighing the declassification of further records, the official said. -Just the News

If the NDAA is passed by the House and Senate and signed into law by Trump, it would require Gabbard and the ODNI to conduct two separate classification reviews related to COVID-19. The first review would cover the origins of the virus, and calls on Gabbard to review the intelligence on "research conducted at the Wuhan Institute of Virology or any other medical or scientific research center within the People’s Republic of China," and "information relating to Gain of Function research and the intention of this research." The review would also look into "information relating to sources of funding or direction for research on coronaviruses, including both sources within the People’s Republic of China and foreign sources."

The second declassification review would call on ODNI to look at Beijing's efforts "to disrupt or obstruct information sharing or investigations into the origins" of COVID-19, and "to disrupt the sharing of medically significant information relating to the transmissibility and potential harm of SARS–CoV–2 to humans." This second review would also look into China's attempts "to deny the sharing of information with the United States, allies and partners of the United States, or multilateral organizations, including the United Nations and the World Health Organization," along with Beijing's efforts "to pressure or lobby" governments, organizations and officials related to COVID-19.

Let's see if the Trump administration squanders yet another chance to provide long-promised clarity on a major issue of national interest, after thoroughly botching the Epstein release.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 12:20

 

 

Last week’s Sturgeon’s Corollary generated a bit of pushback. The most relevant questions were about ETFs as a group: “Surely 90% of all ETFs are not crap” was the most common issue. Do the math: As of last count, there are 4,297 ETFs; as a comparison, there are only ~3,500 publicly traded equities (but ~2 million unique CUSIPs for Bonds).

But the basic theme that “Most issuances of mainstream financial instruments are mediocre” remained unchallenged. Expand that to adjacent and/or speculative investments, and the stark reality presents itself. In Crypto, there is Bitcoin and Ether, followed by 1,000s of other tradeable blockchain issuance collectively known as “Shitcoins.” If you lose money on a product best described by a phrase with literally “shit” in its name, who else can you blame but yourself?

Which brings me to the late, not-so-great, tradeable assets known as NFTs…

~~~

A quick refresher:

Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are unique digital tokens on a blockchain – think of them as certificates of ownership built on infrastructure such as Ethereum. During the pandemic, with people bored at home and sitting on idle capital, traders and degenerate gamblers were swept up into a speculative frenzy.

Leading the charge were the Crypto Bros, flush with newfound wealth. Other speculators and more than a few Main Street degens bought into the hype, following the fervor. People who had no business wagering with 10,000 or 20,000 dollars dived in. And so NFTs became lottery tickets with all the hallmarks of a classic psychological bubble: a new product of dubious fundamental value, rapid price surges, celeb endorsements, and fawning media attention combined to push prices sky-high.

The NFT peak sale was The Merge by Pak, which on December 2, 2021, traded hands at an astonishing $91.8 million. That was followed by Beeple’s Everydays: The First 5000 Days, auctioned for $69.3 million at Christie’s. Beyond single pieces, there are eight collections of NFTs that sold for more than a billion dollars, according to CryptoSlam. Notable issuers include Axie Infinity at $4.3 billion; Bored Ape Yacht Club at $3.4B; CryptoPunks at $3.3B; Mutant Ape Yacht Club is $2.2B; #6 is the NBA Top Shot at $1.5B.

 

Adding up the top 100 collections shows a total of $39.2 billion in sales.1

All of the above raises an obvious question: How did so much capital get deployed into something with (arguably) zero intrinsic value?

I understand the unique status of joining an exclusive club, and the ability to authenticate ownership of unique items, from luxury goods to concert tickets – but the shift from useful tool to speculative mania was a very short trip. This was a pure FOMO-based bubble, much more akin to the Dutch Tulip frenzy than anything else in recent years. It was a huge misallocation of capital for individuals, and collectively, a waste of $50 billion. Say what you will about the AI Capex frenzy, it looks almost rational in comparison to the NFT boom and bust.

It is true: most of the SPACs, Hedge funds, ETFs, NFTs, Shitcoins, and even Equities that trade are not worth your time. Still, we are all fascinated by the game. My solution has been to use a cowboy account to satisfy the inner degenerate gambler in all of us; the goal is to keep those demons away from your real money and accounts.

Modern history is filled with all sorts of booms and busts, along with the occasional true bubble. NFTs are a textbook example of what happens when degenerate speculation runs amok…

 

 

 

Previously:
Sturgeon’s Corollary (December 4, 2025)

A Short History of Bubbles (October 24, 2025)

10 Quotes That Shaped My Investment Philosophy (October 2, 2023)

Why Most SPACs Suck (October 26, 2020)

90% of Everything is Crap (July 25, 2013)

RealTime Bubble Checklist (October 16, 2025)

 

See also:
Is It a Bubble? (Oaktree, December 9, 2025)

How much is the NFT market worth (Coinledger, September 4, 2025)

Why 98% of 2024 NFT Drops Are Dead DewFi Planet, 14 December 2024)

NFT Market Faces 19% Decline in 2024 as Investors Shift to Cryptocurrencies: (AI Invest Jul 8, 2025)

NFT Market 2025 Update (SCB10x, March 27, 2025)

How much is the NFT market worth? (CoinLedger, August 2025)

 

__________

1. More precisely, $39,243,490,966 via Cryptoslam.

 

 

The post Whatever Happened to NFTs? appeared first on The Big Picture.

Federal Judge Orders Release Of Old Ghislaine Maxwell Files About Jeffrey Epstein

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge in New York on Dec. 9 ruled that the Department of Justice (DOJ) can unseal records in the case against Jeffrey Epstein accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell, weeks after the passage of a law that required the government to disclose case records related to both Epstein and Maxwell.

Judge Paul A. Engelmayer issued the ruling after the DOJ, in November, asked two judges in New York to unseal grand jury transcripts and exhibits from Maxwell and Epstein’s cases, along with investigative materials.

Last month, President Donald Trump signed the Epstein Files Transparency Act into law, meaning that the records could be made public within roughly 10 days.

The law requires the DOJ provide Epstein-related records to the public in a searchable format by Dec. 19.

In the order, the judge wrote that the law “does not explicitly refer to grand jury materials,” but added that it “textually covers the grand jury materials in this case.”

“The Court thus finds that modification of the Protective Order is necessary to enable DOJ to carry out its legal obligations under the Act,” he added.

“The Act unambiguously applies to the discovery in this case,” Engelmayer stated, adding that “unclassified records, documents, communications, and investigative materials” are covered in relation to Maxwell, Epstein, and connected individuals.

Nothing New

The decision comes after Engelmayer previously denied DOJ’s bid to release the documents - when he wrote that a “public official,” “lawmaker,” “pundit,” or “ordinary citizen” concerned with the Epstein case would expect them to reveal new information, based on the government’s descriptions, and “come away feeling disappointed and misled.” Most of the material is “entirely a matter of longstanding public record,” he said at the time.

The ruling was issued days after a federal judge in Florida granted the DOJ’s request to release transcripts from a grand jury investigation into Epstein in the 2000s.

Engelmayer is the second judge to allow the DOJ to publicly disclose previously secret Epstein court records. Last week, a judge in Florida granted the department’s request to release transcripts from an abandoned federal grand jury investigation into Epstein in the 2000s.

The Florida judge also cited the recent passage of the Epstein Files Transparency Act, noting that it supersedes DOJ rules and procedures around the sealing of grand jury materials. In its request, the DOJ wanted documents in a 2006–2007 Florida grand jury sex trafficking investigation into Epstein in which he ultimately pleaded guilty on lesser charges.

The records that Engelmayer unsealed pertain to the case against Maxwell, who was sentenced to 20 years in prison for her role in a sex trafficking scheme involving minors.

Following the signing of the Epstein law, the DOJ also submitted a request to unseal records in a New York case against Epstein before he was arrested in 2019. He was later found dead in a New York City jail cell in August 2019 as he was awaiting federal sex trafficking charges.

Another judge in New York has not yet ruled on that request connected to the final Epstein case.

Maxwell’s attorneys, in a letter to Engelmayer, opposed the release of grand jury materials because she is aiming to seek a new trial, although they noted that Maxwell “does not take a position” in response to the request to release the files.

“Releasing the grand jury materials from her case, which contain untested and unproven allegations, would create undue prejudice so severe that it would foreclose the possibility of a fair retrial should Ms. Maxwell’s habeas petition succeed,” her attorneys stated in the Dec. 3 letter.

ZeroHedge contributed to this report

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 12:00

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November

A brief excerpt:

Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

November sales will be mostly for contracts signed in September and October, and mortgage rates averaged 6.35% in September and 6.25% in October (lower than for closed sales in October).

In November, sales in these early reporting markets were down 10.8% YoY. Last month, in October, these same markets were down 2.3% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There was one fewer working days in November 2025 (18) as in November 2024 (19). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be more than the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
This was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

Goldman Tracks "Lovely Polar Vortex Spinning Into Third Week"

Waking up across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday morning, temperatures are hovering in the upper single digits in some spots, especially in interior areas west of the I-95 corridor. Those regions have already seen their first accumulating snow, marking an early start to winter.

Goldman sales trader Ranald Falconer updated clients on weather forecasts and natural gas markets, noting that persistent cold continues to grip the eastern half of the US, while the western part of the country is experiencing well-above-seasonal temperatures.

In the gas space, I just had a glance through Sam's note over the weekend; definitely worth a read if you are looking at gas dynamics into next year and beyond. Forecast short term in North America looks mild across the West Coast but well below in the East over the next 10 days; our lovely polar vortex looks to be spinning and behaving into the 3rd week of December, but it's southern edge has been spilling colder air into Alaska for the last week.

This colder than normal winter in the US is driving us to leave our end of Oct26 storage balances at a relatively low level; this leaves Winter 26/27 vulnerable to tightening shocks. We maintain our $4.50/mmBtu Summer 2026 NYMEX gas price forecast, though we close our long Apr26 trading recommendation given Summer 2026 forwards are now well above our estimated marginal cost of production. This morning I have Summer 26 HH settling at $4.004 and Cal26 $4.203.

Most important takeaway for me was the impact on continued LNG growth; potential to lead NW European storage into congestion and push TTF and JKM prices low enough to reduce LNG incentives, closing the US LNG export arb and putting pressure on Henry Hub. Flagging our $2.70/$2.75/mmBtu 2028/29 NYMEX gas price forecast, well below current forwards at $3.80/$3.71

Touching on U.S. NatGas futures, unusually cold weather across parts of the Lower 48 - mostly the eastern half - sent prices sharply higher in recent weeks and months, rising from about $3.50/MMBtu at the end of October to a peak near $5.50 last week. Warmer forecasts heading into Christmas have since driven a roughly 14% pullback.

After roughly six weeks of unseasonably cold weather across the Lower 48, a warmup appears to be materializing by the middle of the month.

But then there's this...

NOAA flagship model GFS keeps forecasting devastating cold into Christmas.

Keep stretching/pulling on polar vortex, eventually it wrecks, and cold blasts out.

Surface pressure patterns here (Day 16) would be unprecedented in 21st Century. pic.twitter.com/w2Vvcp6OjX

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) December 8, 2025

Related:

• Timeline For "Largest-Ever LNG Supply Wave" To Hit Global Markets

Global warming and climate-crisis alarmists have been unusually quiet as of late. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 11:40

Justice Kentanji Brown Jackson Argues For Supreme Power Of DC Bureaucracy

Authored by 'sundance' via The Last Refuge,

Highlighting exactly why Barack Obama, Joe Biden and James Clyburn needed to deploy a 2021 Machiavellian strategy to get her moved onto the Supreme Court, Justice Kentanji Brown Jackson (KBJ) argues for the supreme power of the DC bureaucracy that must not be challenged by the President of the United States (Executive Branch).

In the case of Trump v Slaughter, the removal of the FTC Chair, Justice KBJ argues that presidential authority must be kept in check by the unelected “professionals and experts” who make up the bureaucracy underneath him.  The “No Kings” argument is entirely ridiculous given the plenary power of the executive and the constitutional authority of the office.

Ketanji lost it today during oral arguments and went on a “No Kings” style rant about President Trump wanting to rule like a monarch, and how we should instead have many issues handled by “the experts and PhDs” like Dr. Fauci, Dr. “Rachel” Levine, and the gay bondage AIDS dude. pic.twitter.com/Z8qFZgZzsR

— Bad Hombre (@Badhombre) December 8, 2025

Ketanji Brown-Jackson was always going to be installed in the supreme court as part of the overall Obama team’s use of Joe Biden.  Merrick Garland was removed from his position specifically to create the path for KBJ to travel.  Everything about this was planned well in advance of Biden’s installation.  KBJ is to the judicial branch what BHO was/is to the executive branch.

It was February 25th, 2020, to be precise, just four days before the South Carolina Democrat primary.  South Carolina Representative James Clyburn went backstage at the presidential debate and told Biden, “You’ve had a couple of opportunities to mention naming a Black woman to the Supreme Court,” Clyburn lectured his friend of nearly half a century, like a schoolteacher scolding a child. “I’m telling you, don’t you leave the stage tonight without making it known that you will do that.” {link}

Unbeknownst to Biden at the time, just two days earlier Barack Obama and James Clyburn came to an agreement and created the most consequential alliance of the 2020 Democrat campaign. 

Barack Obama the figurative and ideological leader of the movement known as “Black Lives Matter”, and James Clyburn the figurative and ideological leader of the political construct within the African Methodist Episcopal (AME) church, had struck a deal.

Obama and Clyburn really had no choice but to come to an agreement and form the alliance. 

If they did not act fast, Bernie Sanders was gaining momentum, and they could not have Sanders at the top of the 2020 ticket, because he was too outside the club system which was now almost exclusively focused on racial identity as a tool for political power.

A Bernie Sanders -vs- Donald Trump general election would have been a disaster; and it would be almost impossible for the racial operatives in the key precincts [Atlanta (GA), Philly (PA), Clark County (NV), Wayne County (Mich), Madison (WI)] to feel inspired enough to risk themselves and commit fraud to help Bernie win.

To get rid of Sanders, BLM and AME aligned.  This was the actual moment when Hillary Clinton was cast into the pit of irrelevance in Democrat politics.

Within the agreement, Obama and Clyburn selected Biden as the tool they could easily control to deliver on their larger, progressive, leftist intentions.

I sought a nominee with the strongest credentials, record, character, and dedication to the rule of law. That’s why I’m excited to nominate Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to serve on the United States Supreme Court. pic.twitter.com/iGHLqqRAD0

— President Biden Archived (@POTUS46Archive) February 25, 2022

A few days later, James Clyburn then endorsed Biden while Barack Obama began making phone calls telling each of the other candidates to drop out in sequence and support Biden or else the club would destroy them.  The only one told not to drop out yet was Elizabeth Warren, as she would be needed as the insurance policy, the splitter against Bernie Sanders.

Each of the candidates was promised the traditional indulgences for toeing the party line, and the rest is history. 

Joe Biden wandered around doing what everyone told him to do, which was mostly stay in his basement and let the club work on his behalf, until the club delivered the nomination.

Inside that process, the strategic map was modified to ensure Ketanji Brown-Jackson would advance to the Supreme Court.

With Biden installed, he would select Merrick Garland as his Attorney General.  Judge Garland was an important judge on the important DC Circuit Court. 

Garland’s replacement would need to be a Senate confirmed seat for that court.  Brown-Jackson would be put into Garland’s open spot. {Go Deep}

As a standalone Supreme Court nominee, Brown-Jackson would have been a radical pick.  Justice Brown-Jackson is a known activist in the DC District Court; however, with this maneuver she could get through nomination easier and then sit on the highest court for thirty years.

The three Republicans who voted to confirm Brown Jackson for appeals court https://t.co/h1bHRTQBEg pic.twitter.com/V3THUKOMQo

— The Hill (@thehill) February 25, 2022

Once Brown-Jackson was Senate confirmed for the DC Circuit Court, the countdown began until she was elevated as a Supreme Court nomination to replace Justice Stephen Bryer, now 83-years-old.  The Senate had no political ammunition to block or not confirm the radical SCOTUS pick, because she was confirmed a few months before with support from Republicans.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 11:20

Exxon Jumps 4% After Company Boosts 2030 Cash-Flow Outlook

Exxon is trading sharply higher today, rising nearly 4% after the opening bell as investors reacted to a stronger long-term outlook from the company. The oil giant raised its expectations for future earnings and cash flow through 2030, driven by continued growth in its most profitable assets and additional structural cost savings. The update has pushed Exxon shares back toward 52-week and all-time highs, giving positive momentum to one of our favorite names heading into the new year. 

In its announcement, Exxon said it now expects $35 billion in cash-flow growth by 2030, an increase of about 17% from what it was projecting a year ago, with no changes to capital expenditure. The company also raised its cost-savings target, noting that savings will rise 10% to $20 billion compared with 2019 levels. These improvements come without raising spending, which suggests stronger operating efficiency, particularly in the company’s upstream business.

Much of Exxon’s confidence stems from its heavy investment in low-cost fields in the Permian Basin and Guyana. Both are profitable at less than $35 a barrel, enabling Exxon to grow production and generate earnings even as other producers struggle with prices near multi-year lows.

Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods emphasized that the company’s investment strategy during periods of skepticism—particularly during the pandemic and the ESG-driven shift away from fossil fuels—has positioned it well for the future. “Our transformation helps ensure that in any future environment, and for decades to come, Exxon Mobil will have an important role and deliver substantial shareholder value,” he said in the statement.

Bloomberg energy analyst Javier Blas wrote on Tuesday that Exxon would also "lower spending in low-carbon businesses (to ~$20 billion over the next five years, down from ~$30 billion)" and that "the company plans to stop for now the construction of several hydrogen facilities."

"While we're convinced that low-carbon hydrogen will be required [...] the markets and customer-base are developing slowly," Woods told him.

Exxon Mobil to lower spending in low-carbon businesses (to ~$20 billion over the next five years, down from ~$30 billion). The company plans to stop for now the construction of several hydrogen facilities.

"While we're convinced that low-carbon hydrogen will be required [...]…

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) December 9, 2025

Elsewhere production is expected to reach 5.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2030, 17% higher than current levels and 100,000 barrels a day more than forecast a year ago. Exxon attributed the increase to technology advancements, particularly in the Permian Basin, where new proprietary methods may allow the company to extract far more oil than other shale operators.

The company also plans to bring its Golden Pass natural gas export terminal online in the coming weeks, turning what was once a cheap byproduct into a global revenue source. Additional projections include capital spending of $27 billion to $29 billion in 2026, production of about 4.9 million barrels per day that year, 37% of which will come from the Permian, along with a final investment decision on a low-carbon data center project expected “by late 2026.”

Exxon added that it expects to generate cumulative surplus cash flow of $145 billion through 2030 and for earnings to grow $25 billion by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of 13%, while all 2030 corporate emissions intensity plans will be achieved in 2026.

For long-term shareholders, today’s surge reinforces why Exxon remains one of our favorite names. The company is not only growing production and earnings, it is doing so while keeping spending in check and focusing on assets that generate attractive returns in almost any pricing environment. With shares again testing record highs and investors responding positively to the stronger 2030 outlook, Exxon appears well-positioned for a breakout higher in 2026...

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 11:05

Trump Reversing "Humphrey's Executor" Is NOT Priced In

By Michael Every of Rabobank

There are key central bank decisions this week, starting with the RBA today. However, the market has already priced in their expected outcomes. What it’s failing to price in, though it’s more important, is the stream of political and geopolitical developments in which it operates. Not Trump threatening Mexico with an extra 5% tariff over water; nor threats of tariffs on Indian rice and Canadian fertilizer; nor Trump about to unveil a $12bn farm aid package, tasking his top advisers with finding ways to lower soaring beef prices; nor Nigeria helping foil a coup in Benin, Thailand and Cambodia attacking each other, and Israel bombing Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Rather, the US Supreme Court appears ready to overturn decades of precedent to grant Trump the power to fire a swathe of government officials. Reversing ‘Humphrey’s Executor’ will allow him to overcome legal and bureaucratic resistance to the Gramscian changes he’s introducing to the political economy. That isn’t priced in. Indeed, despite Justice Kavanaugh’s opposition, it could put the Fed in the firing line too, with Governor Cook’s court case in January and a Fed Chair nominee, likely Hassett, promised within weeks. That isn’t priced in either.   

Neither is Friday’s US National Security Strategy (NSS) even if for some countries and many markets it implies staggering changes ahead. 

It’s America First, starting with “protecting the country and its way of life” and ending with “restoring US spiritual and cultural health”. 

Its working principles are a focused definition of national interests; peace through strength; a predisposition to non-interventionism; flexible realism; the primacy of nations; a balance of power; pro-American worker; fairness; and competence and merit. 

Its priorities begin with “The era of mass migration is over”; protection of core rights and liberties; burden-sharing and burden-shifting; realignment through peace; and economic security, focused on balanced trade, access to critical supply chains and materials, reindustrialisation, rebuilding the defence industrial base, energy dominance, and financial sector dominance.

In the Americas, the US wants to “enlist” new friends to work with it, and it will expand its military presence there via a ‘Trump Corollary” to Monroe Doctrine. The goal is for “partner nations” to build up their domestic economies, while a “stronger and more sophisticated” Western Hemisphere grows for the US. That’s not the traditional US model of US cheap labour and resource extraction. The plan is also to “expand” its list of partners while pushing out influence from “non-hemispheric competitors”, which sounds like regime change, a long-standing tradition.

In Asia, the aim is to “win the economic future” and “prevent military confrontation. Even with Trump agreeing to sell older Nvidia chips to China, the NSS states: “we will rebalance America’s economic relationship with China, prioritising reciprocity and fairness to restore American economic independence. Trade with China should be balanced and focused on non-sensitive factors.” Indeed, the US will “resist predatory, state-directed subsidies and industrial strategies,” etc. Moreover, “We must encourage… prominent nations in adopting trade policies that help rebalance China’s economy toward household consumption.” So, a US bloc with a common external tariff against China. This “must be accompanied by a robust and ongoing focus on deterrence to prevent war in the Indo-Pacific”, and from Taiwan to the South China Sea, this means much more military burden-sharing from US allies and partners. 

For Europe, the emphasis is on decline and the starker “prospect of civilisational erasure.” There is a litany of US complaints about the EU’s strategy and the view that “should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less. As such, it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies.” This is then sharpened to, “Over the long term, it is more than plausible that within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become majority non-European. As such, it is an open question whether they will view their place in the world, or their alliance with the US, in the same way as those who signed the NATO charter.” 

While the FT talks of ‘Trump’s America and a clash of civilizations with Europe’, the NSS argues “Europe remains strategically and culturally vital to the US…Not only can we not afford to write Europe off - doing so would be self-defeating for what this strategy aims to achieve…. Our goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory. We will need a strong Europe to help us successfully compete, and to work in concert with us to prevent any adversary from dominating Europe.” So, the US wants to remake Europe state by state, ignoring the EU. The NSS says policy will prioritise “Cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations.” 

The NSS also says “It is a core interest of the US to negotiate an expeditious cessation of hostilities in Ukraine.” Yet after meeting Macron, Merz, and Starmer yesterday, Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says he won’t yield any territory to Russia. The war may grind on… and the US may walk away, leaving Europe to pay and provide materiel for it. In parallel, Reuters reports the US plans to hand over the running of European NATO by end-2027. If so, European plans to raise core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 would be completely inadequate, more so if there is war nor peace. This could require spending 8-10% of GDP for the next two years; or Russia might win, which Europe has said is “existential” for it. The Deputy Secretary of State also just posted that the US will no longer accept NATO meeting with it and talking ‘alliance’, then after it leaves, the same countries changing hats to ‘EU’ and pushing policies that undermine US interests. He implies one or the other will have to change. That has huge implications of its own, including the US openly playing divide and rule via security with the EU: east/north vs west/south. 

In short, the NSS puts Europe --as currently constituted-- in a terrible geopolitical position with no good options. The response so far has been silence (‘As Trump goes on the attack, von der Leyen goes into hiding’). Limited conversation around the topic focuses on the mistakes that the US is making. OK, **but what will EUROPE DO**? Chatter of ‘working with China’ rather than the US --as Macron was maybe angling for when not threatening to use Europe’s trade-bazooka on Beijing-- would just ensure the US becomes openly antagonistic; and Chinese trade practices are set in place, as its trade surplus hit a new high. We were here on tariffs too, before the EU yielded.

Tellingly, the NSS plan for the Middle East – “Shift burdens, build peace” actually looks like the easier region to deal with, as does Africa’s “Look to partner with select countries to ameliorate conflict.” Cynics might add that reads like a future NSS Europe text.

This might all seem abstract to markets (“What does this mean for the ECB?”) but it was the ECB’s Lagarde who underlined the world which made Europe prosperous is disappearing. The one that opened up on Friday is likely to be even more transformative as: JP Morgan’s Dimon attacks Europe’s economic record; Ford’s CEO warns Europe is risking the future of its auto industry; the EU steel industry is “in disarray”; France is shielding an €18bn Russian asset pot from the EU ‘reparations loan’ push, where Germany faces a €52bn potential bill for guaranteeing it – and Japan won’t join in.

That leaves one hope for the EU to cling to: that the NSS is just aspirational shelfware. Yet if the Supreme Court rules for Trump on Humphrey’s Executor, the NSS may be backed by new US political-economy hardware and software. That’s called a fat tail risk - and it’s NOT priced in!  

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 10:00

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.7 million in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (2.9 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.9 million) were little changed.
emphasis added

The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for October; the employment report to be released this coming Tuesday will be for November.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Jobs openings increased in October to 7.67 million from 7.66 million in September.
The number of job openings (black) were up 1% year-over-year. 

Quits were down 9% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

Musk Claims EU Commissars Are 'Responsible For Murder Of Europe'

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Elon Musk escalated his confrontation with Brussels on Monday, declaring on X that “the EU commissars are responsible for the murder of Europe” after the European Commission insisted it would “make sure” the social media platform pays the €120 million fine imposed last week for alleged violations of the Digital Services Act (DSA).

The Commission announced on Friday that X had breached transparency rules and used deceptive design practices under the bloc’s online-platform regulation, with specific criticism of its blue-tick verification system. The EU regulator said the system exposes people to scams, impersonation, and manipulation by malicious actors.

The move prompted a swift backlash in Washington as senior U.S. officials accused the EU of censorship, regulatory harassment, and unfair targeting of American technology firms. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “The European Commission’s $140 million fine isn’t just an attack on X, it’s an attack on all American tech platforms and the American people by foreign governments. The days of censoring Americans online are over.”

Brendan Carr, chairman of the Federal Communications Commission, likewise criticized the EU action, saying, “Once again, Europe is fining a successful U.S. tech company for being a successful U.S. tech company. Europe is taxing Americans to subsidize a continent held back by Europe’s own suffocating regulations.”

Today’s excessive €120M fine is the result of EU regulatory overreach targeting American innovation. The Trump Administration has been clear: we oppose censorship and will challenge burdensome regulations that target US companies abroad. We expect the EU to engage in fair, open,… https://t.co/EAld2QJaen

— U.S. Ambassador to the EU (@USAmbEU) December 6, 2025

Howard Lutnick, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, added that “the Digital Services Act is designed to stifle free speech and American tech companies,” while U.S. Ambassador to the EU Andrew Puzder described the penalty as “excessive” and a result of “EU regulatory overreach.”

Musk has frequently clashed with liberal Western governments, accusing them of suppressing free expression. In recent months, he has publicly backed figures on Europe’s political right, including Alice Weidel of Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) and several anti-mass immigration MPs in the United Kingdom, such as Rupert Lowe.

The EU commissars are responsible for the murder of Europe https://t.co/xVJDn6P8tn

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 8, 2025

“Remigration is the normal position,” Musk wrote on Monday, remarking on a poll indicating that seven in ten Danes support deporting foreign nationals convicted of crimes.

Over the weekend, he intensified his criticism of Brussels by calling for the “abolition” of the European Union, claiming it prioritizes bureaucracy over democracy. “Dissolve the EU and return power to the people,” he wrote while commenting on a European Court of Justice ruling last year that upheld a financial penalty against Hungary for refusing to accept migrant quotas under the EU Migration Pact. That scheme requires member states either to accept allocated asylum seekers or pay roughly €20,000 per person as a solidarity contribution.

Musk has also claimed the controversy has boosted X’s popularity. He said the platform was seeing “record-breaking downloads in many countries in Europe” following the announcement of the fine, calling X the number one news app “in every EU country.”

Now number 1 in every EU country! https://t.co/tQOpiPVRkw

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 7, 2025

At the Commission’s daily briefing on Monday, spokesperson Thomas Regnier said the penalty would be enforced. “X will have to pay that fine. The €120 million will have to be paid. We will make sure that we get this money,” he told reporters.

Regnier said the Commission would continue to use X to communicate with the public despite the platform’s decision to suspend the Commission’s account for paid advertising in response to the penalty. He said the EU executive uses all its social media accounts, including those on X, “to get in touch with citizens, stakeholders, to do some outreach work, to precisely speak about what we are doing in the EU.”

X can still challenge the decision, and Regnier confirmed the company “has 90 days to get back” to the Commission on how it intends to proceed.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 08:40

The post Trump Is Wrong About the Economy; the Fed Should Lower Rates appeared first on CEPR.

Futures Flat With Fed/Oracle Event Bonanza On Deck

US futures are unchanged, with traders looking forward to two market-moving events on Wednesday: the Fed meeting (where 22bps of easing is priced in) and Oracle results. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 contracts are little changed. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly lower except for a 0.5% gain in NVDA: TSLA -0.9%, META -0.5%, GOOGL -0.3%. Since yesterday’s close, incremental macro headlines were largely muted. Headlines on NVDA’s likely H200 shipment approval drove gains in stocks both during Monday trading session and pre-market today. In addition, there was an article on China is set to limit access to NVDA’s H200 chips this morning. Bond yields are fractionally lower, while the USD reverses earlier losses and is flat. Commodities are mixed: oil and previous metals are higher, while base metals and Ags are lower. Key focus today are Small Business Optimism and JOLTS.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Nvidia up 0.1%, paring earlier gains, after the FT reported that China’s regulators are discussing ways to limit permits for access to its H200 semiconductors (Amazon +0.1%, Microsoft +0.1%, Apple -0.1%, Alphabet -0.2%, Meta -0.6%, Tesla -0.9%). 

• Almonty Industries (ALM) is down 14% to $6.79 after the company priced 18 million shares at $6.25 each for $112.5 million in gross proceeds.
• Ares Management (ARES) rises 8.1% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the stock will replace Kellanova in the S&P 500, effective Dec. 11.
• Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) falls 4.6% after the luxury builder beat analysts’ estimates for quarterly orders, while providing full-year guidance for 2026 that fell below expectations.
• Viking Holdings (VIK) rises 2.3% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the cruise operator to buy from neutral. Meanwhile, peer Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) falls 2.5% as the bank downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.

US stocks may be more volatile after tomorrow’s Fed meeting than after other recent decisions because of diverging views among Fed officials, with Bloomberg options data showing an implied move of 0.7% in either direction. Globally, central banks are starting to tilt more hawkish, upending yields. Meanwhile, while buyside investors have said they’re feeling risk-on into 2026, a poll of Goldman Sachs clients shows their bullish views about AI and US stocks are moderating.

Elsewhere, a recent jump in Treasury yields has curbed risk appetite as traders grow cautious about the pace of monetary easing beyond Wednesday’s meeting. Money markets now see two cuts in 2026 after a likely 25bps hawkish cut tomorrow, a retreat from more optimistic forecasts in recent weeks.

“Given all the tension in global bond markets at the moment, the meeting of the Fed could potentially add fuel to the fire,” said Vincent Juvyns, chief investment strategist at ING in Brussels. “Investors will also be watching very closely the results of Oracle and Broadcom. There’s a lot at stake this week.”

Stoxx 600 little changed, with outperformance for German and Italian stocks, offset by weakness in France. The defense sector is rallying as Germany prepares to authorize a record amount of orders for military gear and services. Other sectors are muted amid concerns about the path of monetary policy at global central banks. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

• Orsted shares jump as much as 4.4% to their highest level in four months after a US federal judge ruled President Donald Trump’s executive order banning new wind projects is illegal.
• Rusta gains as much as 13%, the most since June, after the Swedish discount retailer reported second-quarter earnings that DNB Carnegie described as “much stronger than expected,” with sales growth accelerating.
• Man Group shares gain as much as 5.2%, touching their highest level since February, after JPMorgan says there are “reasons to be cheerful” about the European diversified financials sector heading into 2026, with a brighter economic outlook offering a supportive backdrop for equity markets.
• Thungela shares rally as much as 6.7% after the coal miner said in a statement that it expects its export saleable production from its South African operations for 2025 to exceed its guidance range.
• BAT shares decline as much as 5.4% after the company said it expects revenue growth in 2026 at the lower end of its mid-term guidance.
• Thyssenkrupp shares slide as much as 13%, paring this year’s huge gains, after the German industrial firm’s 2026 guidance missed estimates. Morgan Stanley said the weak outlook outweighed a full-year results beat.
• Air France-KLM shares fall as much as 11%, the most intraday in a month, after CMA CGM offered about €325m senior unsecured bonds due 2028 exchangeable for shares of the airline operator.
• EssilorLuxottica shares fall as much as 5%, the most since May, on competition concerns after Alphabet’s Google said it’s working to create two different categories of artificial intelligence-powered smart glasses.
• OCI shares slump as much as 18%, reaching a record low, after the Dutch chemical maker announced a merger with Orascom Construction, an engineering and construction contractor based in Abu Dhabi.
• Gerresheimer shares drop as much as 8.9% after Morpheus Research published a report on the German company and said it’s short the stock.

Earlier in the session, Hang Seng Tech Index drops more than 1.5% and mainland China indexes are better offered. The ChiNext stands out with a modest gain. Kospi, Taiex and ASX 200 indexes are nursing small losses, while Japanese stocks are broadly unchanged.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index marginally weaker. Aussie dollar among the strongest major currencies after the RBA said it was done with rate cuts in this cycle, which sent Aussie bond yields soaring.

In rates, bonds are recovering slightly from the selloff in the prior session in Europe, with outperformance in longer maturities. Ten-year bund yields down two basis points. Treasuries mixed, with yields lower at the long end, unchanged at the short. 10-year TSY yields, little changed around 4.165%, trails bunds and gilts in the sector by 1.5bp and 0.5bp. Treasury curve spreads are mostly within a basis point of Monday’s closing levels, with 5s30s near 105bp holding Monday’s sharp flattening move. Rangebound price action precedes 10-year note auction at 1pm New York time, following October JOLTS job openings data during US morning. Treasury coupon auctions cycle continues with $39 billion 10-year reopening, a day earlier than normal to avoid coinciding with FOMC communications. Cycle concludes Thursday with $22 billion 30-year bond reopening. WI 10-year yield near 4.165% is ~9bp cheaper than the November sale, which tailed by 0.6bp

In commodities, gold prices higher, up by around $12 to $4,202/oz. Oil prices fluctuating, with Brent futures trading up to around $62.60/barrel.

Looking ahead, the US economic calendar includes September Leading index and October JOLTS job openings (10am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini little changed
• Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX +0.4%
• CAC 40 -0.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.16%
• VIX +0.1 points at 16.77
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1213.31
• euro little changed at $1.1648
• WTI crude +0.4% at $59.1/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump Says U.S. Will Allow Nvidia H200 Chip Sales to China, Get 25% Cut: BBG
• China set to limit access to Nvidia’s H200 chips despite Trump export approval: FT
• China’s top leaders are signaling they are on alert for a potential flareup of tensions in global commerce as they draw up economic plans for next year, after amassing a record trade surplus despite the tariff war with the US: BBG
• President Donald Trump signaled he could impose fresh tariffs on agricultural products, including Canadian fertilizer and Indian rice, the latest sign that protracted negotiations with two US trading partners could drag on: BBG
• US farmers said the Trump administration’s $12bln aid package brings temporary relief, but is unlikely to kickstart a lasting recovery for the American farm economy, according to Bloomberg.
• Oil market faces ‘super glut’ as supply surge hits prices, Trafigura warns: FT
• China’s Manufacturing Is Booming Despite Trump’s Tariffs: WSJ
• Foreign investors are storming into Japan’s once-placid government bond market, exposing the world’s second-largest pool of sovereign debt to bouts of volatility sparked by traders thousands of miles away: BBG
• German lawmakers are set to approve 29 military procurement contracts worth a record €52 billion ($61 billion) next week, part of the government’s push to transform the Bundeswehr into Europe’s strongest conventional army: BBG
• South Korea’s National Pension Service has recently started selling dollars to bolster the won, according to a person familiar with the matter, reviving earlier efforts to support the currency: BBG
• Investors increase bets on ECB rate rise in threat to dollar: FT
• Chinese stocks slumped in Hong Kong as investors reacted to a lack of stimulus signals from a meeting of top Communist Party leaders and turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision: BBG
• Lithuania declares state of emergency over smuggler balloons from Belarus: FT
• Trump Rails Against Europe, Threatens Expanded Anti-Drug Strikes: BBG
• Boaz Weinstein’s $2bn flagship hedge fund sinks amid buoyant markets: FT
• Warner Bros. Rival Bids Put Spotlight on Flagging Cable Networks: BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said he spoke with Chinese President Xi very recently and thinks that China will buy even more soybeans than promised. Trump separately announced that he informed Chinese President Xi that the US will allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to ship its H200 products to approved customers in China and other countries, while Trump added that President Xi responded positively, and that 25% will be paid to the US. Furthermore, Trump said the Department of Commerce is finalising the details, and that the same approach will apply to AMD (AMD), Intel (INTC) and other great US companies.
• China is set to limit access of NVIDIA's (NVDA) H200 chips despite export approval from US President Trump, via FT citing sources; no decision has been made on the matter
• US President Trump posted that ''Mexico continues to violate our comprehensive Water Treaty, and this violation is seriously hurting our BEAUTIFUL TEXAS CROPS AND LIVESTOCK. Mexico still owes the U.S over 800,000 acre-feet of water for failing to comply with our Treaty over the past five years." Trump added that the "U.S needs Mexico to release 200,000 acre-feet of water before December 31st, and the rest must come soon after. As of now, Mexico is not responding, and it is very unfair to our U.S. Farmers who deserve this much needed water. That is why I have authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico if this water isn’t released, IMMEDIATELY."
• US lawmakers urged US President Trump to ease Japan tariffs amid Chinese economic coercion, according to Nikkei.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they are working on an India trade deal.
• Chinese Premier Li said at the '1 + 10' dialogue with the heads of major international economic organisations that the global economy in 2025 is marked by turbulence and twists, creating urgent demand for reforming and improving global economic governance, while he added that tariffs have dominated global discussions on the economy this year and that mutually destructive consequences of tariffs becoming increasingly evident. Li said calls for free trade are growing louder and that AI is also becoming central to global trade discussions.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were subdued following the lacklustre lead from Wall Street with markets cautious ahead of the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday, while downside was stemmed in the region amid a further warming of US-China trade relations after US President Trump confirmed that the US will permit NVIDIA (NVDA) to sell its H200 chips to China. ASX 200 was pressured following the RBA rate decision where the central bank unsurprisingly kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%, although comments from RBA Governor Bullock at the press conference leaned hawkish as she stated that it looks like more rate cuts are not needed and she doesn't see rate cuts in the foreseeable future, while she added that the outlook is for an extended pause or hikes, but would not put a probability on it. Nikkei 225 lacked conviction and swung between gains and losses within a narrow range following recent currency weakness and anticipation that the BoJ will hike rates next week. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued after the readout from yesterday's Politburo meeting underwhelmed, as some were hoping for more forceful measures, while chipmakers in China were pressured in early trade after US President Trump's announcement to allow NVIDIA to sell chips to approved customers in China.

Top Asian News

• RBA kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%, as expected, with the decision unanimous and noted that recent data suggests the risk to inflation have tilted to the upside, but it will take a little longer to assess persistence of inflationary pressures, while it added that private demand is recovering, and labour market conditions still appear a little tight, though modest easing is expected. RBA said the board judged it appropriate to remain cautious and update its outlook as the data evolves, with the board to be attentive to the data and evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions. Furthermore, the board judged that some of the recent increase in underlying inflation was due to temporary factors, while it is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment, and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that.
• RBA Governor Bullock said at the post-meeting press conference that inflation and jobs data will be important for the board meeting in February, while she added that it looks like more rate cuts are not needed. Bullock stated they did not consider a rate cut and did not explicitly consider the case for a rate hike at this meeting, but discussed the circumstances in which tightening might be required. Bullock said if inflation looks persistent, it will raise questions for policy, while she would not put timing on any future move and will proceed meeting by meeting. Furthermore, she doesn't see rate cuts in the foreseeable future and noted the outlook is for an extended pause or hikes, but would not put a probability on it.
• China's Premier said "we are confident in completing economic goals this year", according to Xinhua.
• BoJ Governor Ueda said he believes that the economy will go back to positive growth in Q4 and beyond that. "Because we are foreseeing convergence to 2% of the underlying component, we have been adjusting the degree of easing slowly". As Japanese automakers have chosen to lower export prices without passing them to US consumers, this has stabilised the volume of auto exports, not creating negative effects on employment and production in Japan. Strong enough momentum in domestic price and wage dynamics to prevent negative shocks from having a large impact on inflation. At the moment, not seeing a very high risk of inflation, especially underlying inflation accelerating in the wake of fiscal stimulus. Watching the possibility of food inflation and JPY weakness altering inflation expectations. It is the government's job to deliver on medium to long-term fiscal sustainability. Keep an eye on bank exposure to non-bank financial institutions abroad. Exchange rates should follow fundamentals. How exchange rates will affect our inflation outlook is a "very important question for us."
• BoJ Governor Ueda said he won't comment on specifics on interest rates but noted that long-term interest rates are rising rather rapidly recently, adding that it will increase JGB purchases if long-term rates make abrupt moves.

European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) opened with mild gains, then clambered higher soon after the cash open - a move which ultimately proved fleeting, with indices now broadly in the red. European sectors opened without bias and continue to fare this way. Financials, Insurance and Banks lead the charge, helped by the continued constructive yield environment, while Basic Resources underperforms as the metals rally loses steam.

Top European News

• European Parliament said parliament and member state negotiators reached a provisional deal to update EU rules on sustainability reporting and due diligence requirements for companies. Furthermore, it stated that companies with more than 1,000 employees and annual turnover over EUR 450mln are to report on their sustainability, while large corporations with more than 5,000 employees and annual turnover of more than EUR 1.5bln are to carry out due diligence on their adverse impacts.
• Germany is to approve EUR 52bln in military orders, via Bloomberg.
• NBP's Duda said it is necessary to wait before cutting rates to assess the impact of reductions already made on the economy.

FX

• DXY resides within a narrow 98.97-99.14 range with the index testing 99.00 to the downside shortly after the European cash equity open, with newsflow on the quieter side as trades look ahead to tomorrow's FOMC with eyes on the dot plots. The index remains well within yesterday's 98.79-99.22 parameter. Trade headlines have been more conciliatory between the US and China, after US President Trump announced that he informed Chinese President Xi that the US will allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to ship its H200 products to approved customers in China and other countries. On the docket ahead, the US data slate features weekly ADP jobs data, as well as JOLTs data for September (7.199mln expected vs a prior 7.227mln; in August, the vacancy rate was unchanged at 4.3%, while the quits rate eased by 0.1ppts to 1.9%).
• AUD is the outperformer this morning after the RBA maintained its Cash Rate at 3.60%, as unanimously forecast, while support was seen during the post-meeting press conference where RBA Governor Bullock noted that it looks like more rate cuts are not needed. AUD/USD tested levels near 0.6650 from a 0.6610 base.
• JPY lags following yesterday's weakness on the 7.6 magnitude earthquake, which did later see all advisories eventually lifted. USD/JPY saw a dip lower on hawkish commentary from BoJ Governor Ueda after he noted, "How exchange rates will affect our inflation outlook is "very important question for us." USD/JPY resides in a 155.74-156.43 range after tipping yesterday's 155.98 peak, with the next upside level the 28th Nov peak at 156.58.
• GBP and EUR trade with modest gains in quiet newsflow, with GBP/USD on either side of 1.3350 and EUR/USD printing on either end of 1.1650. Strength in the GBP in the early part of this morning's session lacked a clear catalyst.

Fixed Income

• USTs were initially slightly this morning, but then caught a slight bid. Currently trading at the upper end of a 112-05+ to 112-12+ range. The upside seen in the morning came alongside FX-related commentary by BoJ Governor Ueda, which sparked some demand in the Yen, which led to a broader pick-up across havens (bonds/gold). On the trade front, President Trump said he would allow NVIDIA H200 chip shipments to China, which has seemingly lifted sentiment a touch in Europe/US equity futures. Elsewhere, Trump threatened Mexico with an extra 5% tariff amidst a water dispute. Ahead, markets await the Weekly US ADP Prelim Average, JOLTS data and a 10-year auction.
• Bunds started the European session with modest strength, attempting to scale back some of its recent losses; currently trading within a 127.26 to 127.66 range; the low for the day is a couple of ticks below Monday’s trough. Though soon after the cash open, Bunds moved a touch lower amidst a pick-up in European equities – a move which ultimately proved fleeting, with Bunds now back in the green by roughly 15 ticks. Earlier, German Exports rose 0.1% (exp. -0.5%), whilst Imports disappointed – overall, ING suggests the data shows that Germany is unlikely to be pulled out of stagnation by its exports. Most recently, in line with peers, the benchmark has picked up to trade near highs.
• OATs are higher, but underperforming vs European peers, as traders count down their clocks to a key National Assembly Vote on the 2026 social security budget; if passed, PM Lecornu would have successfully resolved issues which have led to failure for the prior two PMs. In brief, recent pension/healthcare spending concessions have earned Lecornu support from the Socialists, who are expected to vote in favour of the bill, whilst support from the right has waned – Politico writes that “it’s not looking great”. Overall, the outcome could heighten political turbulence and uncertainty over France’s plans to address gaps in its public finances.
• Gilts trade higher alongside peers; currently at the upper end of a 90.63 to 91.22 range. Focus ahead will be on the BoE TSC hearing, with the likes of Ramsden (Dove), Lombardelli (Neutral), Mann (Hawk) and Dhingra (Dove) all set to appear.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent have seemed to have stabilised following Monday's risk-off selloff. Benchmarks extended below Monday's trough of USD 58.62/bbl and USD 62.34/bbl, respectively, to a low of USD 58.59/bbl and USD 62.24/bbl as the APAC session came to an end. Thus far, benchmarks trade muted in a c. USD 0.40/bbl range with the EIA to release its STEO later today.
• Spot XAU failed to extend beyond the key support level at USD 4176/oz, troughing at USD 4170/oz, before reversing higher as the dollar continued to weaken ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. XAU gradually rose c. USD 35/oz higher to a session high of USD 4209/oz as the European session gets underway, aided by hawkish comments by BoJ's Ueda, which pressured USD/JPY and in turn, weakened DXY.
• 3M LME Copper continued to pull back from its ATH formed in Monday's session, set at USD 11.75k/t, following a disappointing readout from the Politburo and a cautious risk tone ahead of the FOMC meeting. The red metal gradually fell from a session high of USD 11.66k/t to a trough of USD 11.43k/t throughout the APAC session. Currently, losses have been slightly pared back as the European session gets underway, with 3M LME Copper trading back above USD 11.5k/t
• Iraq sets January Basrah medium crude official selling price to Asia at -USD 1.05/bbl to Oman/Dubai average.
• Ukraine's Naftogaz says Russian drones attacked its gas infrastructure

Geopolitics

• Israeli military announced it struck infrastructure belonging to Hezbollah in several areas in southern Lebanon.
• EU Commission President von der Leyen said as peace talks are ongoing, the EU remains ironclad in its support for Ukraine, while she added that the goal is a strong Ukraine, on the battlefield and at the negotiating table. Furthermore, she said Ukraine's sovereignty must be respected, and Ukraine's security must be guaranteed in the long term as a first line of defence for our union.
• Russia's Kremlin said European claims that Russian President Putin plans to attack NATO are "complete nonsense".

US Event Calendar

• 6:00 am: Nov NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 98.3, prior 98.2
• 10:00 am: Sep Leading Index, est. -0.31%
• 10:00 am: Oct JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7117k

DB's Jim reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Zurich after a day in sunny Geneva yesterday as the 2026 World Outlook roadshow moves on to audiences that don't quite rival the recent Oasis tour but are decent nonetheless. Tickets are undoubtedly cheaper. Bonds continue to cheapen up as well as the recent sell-off has showed no signs of letting up over the last 24 hours, with global yields moving higher as investors reacted to several headlines, including hawkish comments from multiple officials. So by the close, 10yr bund yields (+6.4bps) had posted their biggest daily jump since August to reach 2.86%, which is their highest level since March after the fiscal stimulus announcements. Meanwhile in the US, 10yr Treasury yields (+2.9bps) closed at 4.17%, their highest since September. Remember that’s building on the +12bps increase last week, which was already the biggest weekly jump since the Liberation Day turmoil in April. This follows big recent rises in yields in places like Japan, Australia, Canada and New Zealand in recent weeks. For yesterday the yield rise meant that the S&P 500 (-0.35%) fell back after four consecutive gains.  

The initial catalyst for yesterday's additional sell-off was a Bloomberg interview with the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel. That came out before the European open, with her suggesting that “I’m rather comfortable” with expectations that the next move would be a hike. Moreover, she made other hawkish comments, saying that “risks to inflation are tilted to the upside”, and that she believed that the equilibrium or neutral interest rate that neither restricts nor stimulates economic activity (r*) could rise because of AI and public investment. So collectively, that served as the initial trigger for the selloff, and euro overnight index swaps for December 2026 moved +8.0bps higher on the day.

Unsurprisingly, this hawkish repricing led to a huge reaction among European government bond yields, particularly at the front end. For instance, yields on 2yr German (+6.4bps) and French (+5.8ps) debt moved up to their highest level since March, right after the German government had announced their plans to reform the constitutional debt brake to permit extra borrowing. And notably, the 30yr German yield (+3.1bps) moved up to 3.46%, its highest level since summer 2011 as the Euro crisis escalated. So there was a real sense yesterday that markets were pricing back in a pre-GFC normal of higher long-term rates, particularly given the background concerns over the current fiscal trajectory.  

Putting all the yield moves in perspective, over the last month 10yr Australian (+36bps), Japanese (+26bps) New Zealand (+39bps), Canadian (+25ps) and German (+19bps) lead the way. The likes of the UK (+7bps) and the US (+6bps) have actually held in better, even if they are up more from their lows, but yesterday saw US yields rise as we heard from Kevin Hassett, who’s now considered the strong favourite (77% on Polymarket) to become the next Fed Chair. He was asked yesterday how many rate cuts there should be in 2026, but he struck a cautious tone, saying “what you need to do is watch the data.” So given his previous calls for more rate cuts, that was interpreted in a more hawkish light.

Those comments and the global backdrop meant investors meaningfully dialled back their expectations for Fed rate cuts next year. For instance, the amount of further cuts priced in by December 2026 came down -3.9bps on the day to 78bps. And in turn, that meant US Treasury yields moved higher across the curve. So the 2yr yield (+1.5bps) moved up to 3.58%, while the 10yr yield (+2.9bps to 4.17%) and the 30yr yield (+1.0bps to 4.80%) both reached their highest levels since September. Remember that the two-day FOMC meeting begins today ahead of tomorrow’s decision, and the last dot plot in September only signalled one further cut in 2026 after the December cut expected tomorrow. So the dot plot already has a more hawkish profile than futures are pricing, and there was also a wide dispersion around that, with 8 out of the 19 officials above the median, so it would only take two more to push that higher. So there’s heightened uncertainty among investors going into that.  

All this proved a tougher backdrop for risk assets, with the S&P 500 (-0.35%) falling back after a run of 4 consecutive gains. To be fair, the move kept the index less than 1% beneath its record high from late-October, but there was a clear loss of momentum as yields moved higher. The decline was broad-based, with 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sector groups down on the day, led by communication services (-1.77%) and materials (-1.66%). The Magnificent 7 (-0.91%) posted its worst day in over two weeks even as semiconductor stocks outperformed, led by a +1.72% gain for Nvidia. Meanwhile in Europe, the equity losses were more muted, but the STOXX 600 (-0.07%) also fell back.  

Overnight Mr Trump has granted permission for Nvidia to sell its H200 AI chip to China in exchange for a 25% surcharge for the government. Nvidia gained an extra 2% in after-hours trading.

Asian equity markets are predominantly weaker this morning with the Hang Seng (-1.10%) the largest underperformer in the region, with the CSI (-0.44%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.24%) also lower alongside the KOSPI (-0.41%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.45%). The Nikkei is flat alongside US equity futures.  

Overnight, the RBA has maintained its cash rate target at 3.60% in a unanimous decision, marking the third consecutive meeting in which rates have been held steady, following 75bps of cuts in 2025. The press conference was hawkish and emphasised that they are considering a hike and suggested February was under consideration. Following this, the Australian dollar is +0.33% higher against the US dollar, while yields on the policy-sensitive 3-year Australian government bonds have surged by +10.2bps to reach 4.14%. Meanwhile, 10-year yields have increased by +5.4bps, trading at 4.76% as we go to print. So the sell-off in G10 rates continues and Kiwi bond yields are up a similar amount this morning. However, 10-year JGBs are pausing for breath with 10yr yields down by -0.8bps overnight after closing +2.8bps higher yesterday, reaching another post-2007 high of 1.96%.  

Finally on Ukraine, there was no new progress on the peace talks, with President Zelenskiy saying there were still disagreements on territory, and that he wanted answers on security guarantees for Ukraine. After a meeting with UK’s Starmer, France’s Macron and Germany’s Merz in London, Zelenskiy added that Ukraine would share its revised plan with the US today. Oil prices did fall back yesterday, although that reflected the global sell-off rather than geopolitical developments, with Brent crude down -1.98% to $62.49/bbl.   

To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the JOLTS report of job openings for September and October, and the NFIB’s small business optimism index for November. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Nagel, whilst the BoE’s Lombardelli, Ramsden, Mann and Dhingra will be appearing before the House of Commons’ Treasury Committee.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 08:34

ADP Weekly Employment Report Signals Rebound In Labor Market

After a dismal few months, the US labor market turned up for the four weeks ending Nov. 22, 2025, private employers added an average of 4,750 jobs a week., according to ADP's new weekly employment data

This week’s positive number hints at an upswing in the labor market after four straight weeks of negative pulse estimates, after four straight weeks of losing jobs.

This follows the almost unprecedented decline in initial jobless claims last week (which some have argued was impacted by Thanksgiving Week irregularities).

Is this the start of the end of the Low-Fire, Low-Hire economy? It's a little too early to tell, especially after the 120,000 collapse in small business jobs last month reported by ADP.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 08:29