Futures, Global Markets Tumble As Oil Soars Amid Fears Of Lenghty Energy Crisis

Seven days into the war on Iran and markets are getting increasingly shaky. US equity futures tumbled ahead of the February jobs report, and are on pace to close the worst week for global markets since 2020 deep in the red as the selloff in global bonds deepened after another jump in oil prices fanned fears that the war in the Middle East is fueling inflation. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures were 0.7% lower while contracts on the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.9% with all Mag7 names lower in premarket trading (NVDA -0.9%, GOOGL -0.6%). The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed four basis points to 4.18%, on course for its biggest weekly advance since April as global government bonds tumble amid upside risks to inflation from higher energy prices. The dollar gained 0.2% while gold approached $5,100 an ounce. Commodities are mostly higher: Oil added another 6% with WTI now at $86.25; Oil prices are set for their strongest week since 2022, with the war in the Middle East effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. Precious metals are mixed (gold down, silver +0.8%); base metals are lower. Overnight, the biggest catalysts was another escalation in Middle East with some articles pointing to potential shutdown in energy exports from Gulf states. Today's US economic data slate includes February jobs report, January retail sales (8:30am), December business inventories (10am) and January consumer credit (3pm). Fed speaker slate includes Waller (7:30am), Daly (8:30am, 10:15am), Goolsbee (9:50am), Paulson (10:15am), Miran (11:30am), Collins (1:20pm) and Hammack (1:30pm, 3:10pm).

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven are lowe (Microsoft -0.3%, Meta -0.5%, Tesla -0.6%, Alphabet -0.9%, Apple -0.7%, Amazon -1%, Nvidia -1.3%)

• Energy stocks are rising and airline stocks are declining as oil prices hit their highest level since 2024 and gas prices gained as the Iran conflict disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting oil supply.
• Gap Inc. (GAP) falls 8% after reporting fourth-quarter sales and profit that came in slightly below expectations, as two of its apparel chains underperformed. Old Navy, the company’s biggest brand, and Athleta, its smallest, missed comparable-sales estimates.
• Guidewire Software (GWRE) rises 3% after the company reported second-quarter results that were much stronger than expected. It also raised its full-year forecast.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) rallies 11% after the chipmaker said its year-over-year revenue growth rate will accelerate each quarter throughout fiscal 2027, a bullish target that shows soaring demand from data center-related applications.
• Nutex Health Inc. (NUTX) plunges 28% after the health-focused application software firm reported revenue for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Samsara (IOT) climbs 11% after the technology firm reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share that topped the average analyst estimate.
• Trade Desk (TTD) slips 1% after Wedbush downgraded the advertising technology company to underperform — a sell equivalent — from neutral, saying the impact of an OpenAI partnership is “overestimated.”

In corporate news, Anthropic vowed to legally contest a Pentagon decision to declare it a threat to the US supply chain under an authority normally reserved for foreign adversaries, escalating a showdown with the Trump administration over AI safeguards.

The Iran war has entered its seventh day, with Iran firing a barrage of missiles and drones across the Persian Gulf and Israel renewing its airstrikes. Qatar’s energy minister sparked a powerful spike in energy price after he warned that war in the region could “bring down the economies of the world” and predicted that all Gulf energy exporters would shutter production within weeks, in an interview with the Financial Times. This is precisely what we warned about yesterday in "JPMorgan's New Hormuz Closure Math: Just 3 Days Until Commodity Chaos." 

In the latest developments in the Middle East, Iran fired a barrage of missiles and drones targeting countries across the Persian Gulf overnight, while Israel renewed airstrikes on the Islamic Republic in a war that’s entered a seventh day with no end in sight. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain were among those came under renewed attack from the Islamic Republic, while Israeli airstrikes hit Tehran and Beirut.

Trump told NBC News that he wants Iran’s leadership structure fully removed, and that he has some names in mind for a “good leader.” The financial and logistical troubles the Iran war is causing for the global aviation industry are compounding by the day, with the number of canceled flights to Middle East hubs surpassing 27,000 since fighting began even as carriers look to resume some operations.

Still, US stocks are set to outperform global peers in a week that saw Middle East conflict drive fears of energy-driven price pressures, as traders awaited US jobs and retail sales data for insight into the Federal Reserve’s appetite for rate cuts.

That's the good news for Trump, the bad news is that retail gasoline hit $3.32 a gallon on Thursday as the Iran conflict disrupts energy supplies from the Middle East. At the same time, the selloff in global bonds deepened on concern the shock to energy markets could broaden and drive inflation higher.

Friday’s market moves are capping a week of sharp swings in which investors repeatedly recalibrated their outlook on the impact of the US-Israeli war against Iran. Fears that a near-complete halt in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a new inflation spike have led investors to scale back bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.

“This is an anxiety not only about how long the conflict goes on, but what kind of effect it’s going to have on the mix between growth and inflation,” Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., told Bloomberg TV. “The issue really is 20% of world supplies are going through that channel, it’s obviously very, very significant.”

Today’s jobs report may offer more insight on the Fed’s rate path. Headline NFP print estimate is currently 55k, down from 130k last month with unemployment rate expected unchanged at 4.3%. Bloomberg whisper number for headline print is currently 55k (our full preview is here). 

“The market would likely interpret robust job creation as evidence that the US economy remains on solid footing,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro research at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. “This would accelerate the current rapid return to US equities and further fuel the reverse rotation we’ve observed over the past two weeks.”

Anna Wong, Chief US Economist at Bloomberg Economics, expects a tepid job report, largely reflecting temporary disruptions.
She forecasts the US economy to have added just 13,000 jobs in February, down from 130,000 in January. The consensus among analysts is for 55,000, and the “whisper” is for 65,000.

“For this print, the stronger the better given the increase in inflation expectations due to energy prices,” the JPMorgan Market Intelligence desk led by Andrew Tyler says. “A weaker number will increase rate cut expectations, but the risk is stagflation in the near-term given the expected increase in inflation.”

Bond yields are ticking higher heading into the print, and the dollar is muted, with markets pricing in less than 40 basis points of rate cuts for the rest of this year. In another sign of risk aversion, gold remains on track for its first weekly decline in over a month, pressured by a stronger dollar and inflationary risks tied to the Middle East conflict.

Traders slashed bets on Bank of England rate cuts for 2026, pricing just about a 50% chance of a quarter-point move. The yield on two-year gilts surged 13 basis points to 3.93%. Money markets are also fully pricing in that the European Central Bank will raise borrowing costs this year, a turnaround from a week ago when a cut was viewed more likely.

European stocks are now in the red after opening higher. Energy is up, while media, construction and technology sectors fall. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• Lufthansa shares climb as much as 4% after Europe’s largest carrier reported strong results and said it sees “significant” improvement in earnings in 2026.
• SFS rises as much as 6.1%, recovering some of this week’s losses, after the maker of components for the construction and automotive industries delivered better-than-expected results, according to analysts.
• ITV shares climb as much as 8.1% after Kepler Cheuvreux analyst Conor O’Shea raised his recommendation on the stock to buy from hold as he sees the weakness in advertising demand dissipating.
• Engineer IMI shares rise as much as 4.6% after the company delivered results ahead of expectations and announced a new £500 million buyback, supported by solid cash conversion.
• Zealand Pharma shares sink as much as 33%, the most on record, after mid-stage trial results for its experimental obesity shot being developed with Roche fell short of expectations.
• BE Semiconductor Industries shares fall as much as 12% as traders point to an article in Korean media on high-bandwidth memory.
• Infineon shares fall as much as 4% after UBS cut the recommendation on the chipmaker to neutral from buy, seeing limited upside to the firm’s margins and 2027 AI outlook, and growing inventory risk from a slowdown in China.
• Comet shares drop as much as 13% after the supplier of radio-frequency tools reported Ebitda for the full year that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Spie shares slide as much as 5.5% after the technical services provider delivered softer fourth-quarter organic growth across the majority of divisions, while consensus had already anticipated the improved mid-term margin goal, according to analysts at Jefferies.
• UCB drops as much as 2.9% after Morgan Stanley downgrades the stock to equal-weight from overweight, citing increasing concerns around the Belgian biopharmaceutical company’s growth story

In FX, the greenback advances with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rising 0.2%. 

In rates, treasury futures continue to be pressured, sitting on session lows into the early US session as WTI futures extend their climb through $86 barrel, higher by another 6% on the day. US yields cheaper by 2bp to 5bp across the curve in a bear flattening move with 5s30s spread down around 2bp on the day. US 10-year yields trade close to highs of the day around 4.17%, with gilts leading the selloff in bonds with UK two-year yields up 11 bps as traders pare bets on easing by the BOE this year. In Europe, bonds underperform further with front-end gilts cheaper by 12bp on the day. US session focus includes February nonfarm payrolls at 8:30am New York. Fed cut premium continues to fade out of front-end swaps, which now price in around 32bp of rate cuts for the year and the first full 25bp move priced out to the October meeting. In Europe, a full rate hike is now priced by the end of the year. Treasury auctions resume next week with 3-, 10- and 30-year sales for a combined $119 billion.

This week’s spike in Treasury yields is a sharp reversal from last month when they notched their sharpest drop in a year. Swaps now price between one and two Fed cuts for 2026 compared to as many as three a week ago. The dollar, meanwhile, has reclaimed its status as the ultimate haven as it headed for its best week in more than three years.

“Unless there can be some real political breakthrough that leads to a ceasefire, the dollar won’t be ready to resume a decline anytime soon,” ING Bank strategist Chris Turner wrote in a note. “The story will remain one of governments trying to handle the fallout of high energy prices, a negative for bond markets around the world.”

In commodities, Brent crude futures climb to a fresh high this week above $88 a barrel while European natural gas futures also rise after Qatar’s energy minister told the Financial Times the Middle East conflict will likely force Persian Gulf countries to halt energy exports.

Today's US economic data slate includes February jobs report, January retail sales (8:30am), December business inventories (10am) and January consumer credit (3pm). Fed speaker slate includes Waller (7:30am), Daly (8:30am, 10:15am), Goolsbee (9:50am), Paulson (10:15am), Miran (11:30am), Collins (1:20pm) and Hammack (1:30pm, 3:10pm).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.6%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.8%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.5%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.4%
• DAX -0.2%
• CAC 40 -0.3%
• 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.17%
• VIX +0.4 points at 24.19
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1205.77
• euro -0.2% at $1.158
• WTI crude +3.9% at $84.13/barrel

Top Overnight News

• U.A.E. Explores Freezing Iranian Assets to Punish Tehran for Attacks: WSJ
• Oil Soars as Iran War Threatens Long Energy Outage; WTI Crude Tops $85 a Barrel as War Paralyzes Hormuz Traffic: BBG
• Israeli Military Moving to ‘Next Phase’ of Iran Campaign: WSJ
• Iran barrage sweeps Mideast as Trump weighs in on succession: BBG
• Iran says countries have begun mediation efforts: WSJ
• Iran’s Attacks on the UAE Are Costing It Access to Vital Imports: BBG
• Tehran Is Fighting With Jets That Date Back to the Vietnam War: WSJ
• Trump on rising gas prices during Iran operation - 'If they rise, they rise': RTRS
• SoftBank Seeks Record Loan of Up to $40 Billion for OpenAI Stake: BBG
• Drone strike drives calls to end British military presence on Cyprus: RTRS
• Trump Faces Criticism From UAE Business Community Over Iran War: BBG
• Israel targets bunker beneath Khamenei's compound in new wave of attacks: RTRS
• Israel's Hezbollah attacks are likely to continue beyond Iran war: RTRS
• Turkey asks Britain's MI6 to step up protection of Syria's Sharaa: RTRS
• Wealthy Moscow cuts investment, revealing Russia's deeper budget problems: RTRS
• Axel Springer Strikes $770 Million Deal for U.K.’s Daily Telegraph: WSJ
• Texas Republican Ends Re-Election Bid After Affair: AP

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed following the risk-averse mood in the US as geopolitics continued to dominate headlines, and with participants also cautious heading into key US jobs data. ASX 200 was dragged lower as the heavy losses in miners, materials and resources sectors offset the gains in tech and telecoms, while recent higher energy prices stoke inflationary concerns and narrow the policy space for the RBA. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively and swung between gains and losses with very little fresh macro catalysts for Japan. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp trade higher, albeit to varying degrees, with the mainland rangebound, while Hong Kong outperforms amid tech strength and as participants reflected on recent earnings from the likes of JD.com and Bilibili.

Top Asian News

• Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said Japan is ready to take timely steps against the economic impact from the Iran conflict, adds Japan is not fully out of deflation. Japan is ready to act on market volatility while consulting international authorities. Bank of Japan's monetary policy is focused on inflation and not on currency intervention. Wage gains are not BoJ's direct target but is key to price stability.
• PBoC adviser Huang Yiping said China's push to shift its economy towards consumer spending will take a long time, according to Bloomberg. Investors should dampen expectations for “aggressive” stimulus as the government doesn’t view it as a “crisis time”.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) initially traded mixed, but now hold a strong negative bias as the risk tone soured. Little driving the latest downturn, but with focus remaining on the geopolitical situation. European sectors were initially mixed, but now hold a negative bias. Energy takes the top spot, buoyed by strength in underlying energy prices, whilst Industrials is lifted by Defence names. To the downside, Media lags, hampered by post-earning losses in UMG (-5.5%).

Top European News

• EU GDP Growth Rate YoY 3rd Est (Q4) Y/Y 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.4%, Low. 1.3%, High. 1.3%)
• EU Employment Change QoQ Final (Q4) Q/Q 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
• UK Halifax House Price Index YoY (Feb) Y/Y 1.3% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 1.1%, Rev. From 1%, Low. 0.5%, High. 0.9%).
• UK Halifax House Price Index MoM (Feb) M/M 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.8%, Rev. From 0.7%).
• Norwegian Manufacturing Production MoM (Jan) M/M -0.3% (Prev. -0.1%).

FX

• DXY is relatively flat with a mild upward bias after a session of gains on Thursday. Thursday's action was spurred by a haven bid, and as yields climbed on firmer oil prices, in addition to well-received data ahead of NFP.
• EUR/USD returned below the 1.1600 handle after initially reclaiming the level in APAC trade, with downside exacerbated by the ongoing geopolitical and energy-related concerns, alongside the firming USD as traders flock to the haven. Little reaction to the rhetoric from ECB officials. Meanwhile, traders fully price in a 25bps ECB hike this year, Bloomberg reported. EUR/USD trades in a 1.1583-1.1621 range, within Thursday’s 1.1559-1.1647.
• GBP/USD is subdued amid the recent USD strength but remains tucked within yesterday’s 1.3297-1.3387 range. News flow for the UK remains light, but recent headlines centre around UK PM Starmer's shift from initially refusing to assist US military operations against Iran to later granting access to British military bases for "limited" and "defensive" purposes.
• USD/JPY is firmer with the JPY the underperforming G10 amid a rise in US yields and given Japan’s exposure to energy imports. The pair traded sideways for most of the APAC session, given the indecisive mood in Japan; although, it gradually edged higher as domestic sentiment stabilised.
• Antipodeans are mixed, the AUD mildly outperforms amid gains in copper and gold prices and as recent inflationary concerns spurred some outside bets for a rate hike by the RBA this month. AUD/USD trimmed gains after hitting an intraday peak of 0.7047 (vs low 0.7015). NZD/USD hit a current low of 0.5881 (vs high 0.5916), with the 200 DMA (0.5876).

Central Banks

• BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said Japan is seeing inflation in terms of rising consumer prices, adds BoJ is keeping monetary conditions accommodative and gradually adjusting degree of monetary accommodation. Will continue to scrutinise market moves and their impact on the economy and prices. Rising import costs from a weak yen may affect inflation trends. BoJ policy is not aimed at FX rates, yet FX shifts impact inflation and the economy.
• ECB's Escriva said it is highly unlikely the ECB touches rates at its next meeting.
• ECB's Sleijpen said the ECB policy is still in a good place and data dependent.
• PBoC Governor said the central bank will flexibly use various monetary policy tools including interest rates and RRR cuts; PBoC said China has no intention to, not necessary to use FX rate to gain trade competitiveness.

Fixed Income

• USTs are lower. US paper spent much of the overnight session trading sideways, alongside weakness across the crude complex. However, as energy prices turned positive – the benchmark also dipped off best levels in the European morning. The geopolitical situation remains unchanged, with missiles being launched from both sides – but updates related to the Strait of Hormuz helped to improve sentiment, including; a) China is in talks with Iran to allow safe oil and gas passage through Hormuz, b) US allowed India to purchase Russian oil for 30-days. USTs now trade at the lower end of a 112-03 to 112-14+ range.
• Bunds follow peers, for the same reasons as above, and currently towards the bottom end of a 126.96 to 127.32 range. European newsflow has seen a few ECB speakers take to the wires, to generally touch on the Iran situation, whilst Escriva said it is “highly unlikely” that the ECB touches rates at it next meeting. From a yield perspective, the 10yr yield now trades at 2.868% (vs YTD high at 2.909%). Thereafter, 2.938%, a peak spurred by the mini-banking crisis surrounding the collapse of First Brands.
• Gilts underperform, lower by around 75 ticks and trades at the bottom end of a 90.43 to 91.25 range. Underperformance which can be explained by, a) net-importer of energy, b) BoE rate cut expectations entirely priced out for the year; pre-war pricing indicated a cut in either March or April. A lot of focus has been on the front-end Gilt situation, with the 2yr yield now surging beyond 3.90%, to now approach the 4% mark from mid-October 2025 – back where traders were increasingly sceptical of Chancellor Reeves and her Autumn Budget.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks remain firmer, though are off their best levels seen yesterday, which saw Brent firmer by 4.9%, marking the highest close since the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran began. As the conflict reaches its seventh day, there’s been little sign of a reprieve following comments by the Iranian Foreign Minister via NBC News that Iran is ready for a US ground invasion of the country, with further comments this morning via Al Arabiya where the FM said that Iran has no choice but to continue fighting. WTI and Brent are trading in the upper end of USD 78.24-82.93/bbl and 83.16-86.35/bbl, ranges respectively.
• In the precious metals space, spot gold briefly reclaimed the USD 5,100/oz level after facing pressure yesterday, when reports indicated the NBP is considering gold sales for defence funding, which saw the yellow metal fall below the USD 5000/oz mark. A slightly softer dollar and the Iranian conflict boosted haven appeal for gold during the APAC session. However, as the European session gets underway, the yellow metal has slipped below USD 5100/oz due to recent USD strength as the USD continues to be the preferred haven amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. XAU and XAG are trading within the upper end of USD 5066.93-5143.84/oz and 81.80-84.76/oz, ranges respectively.
• Base metals have rebounded from the prior day's trough, largely underpinned by firmer APAC stocks. However, copper prices have seen slight pressure since the European session began, tracking headwind in European equities, thus weighing down the red metal. 3M LME copper trades within the lower end of a USD 12.87-12.91k/t range.
• US-sanctioned gas tanker reportedly transited the Strait of Hormuz this morning, according to Bloomberg; The Danuta I, sailed under the flag of Palau.
• US has issued a temporary 30-day waiver to allow sale of Russian oil currently stranded at sea to India, according to a report citing two officials. Officials say general licence only authorises transactions involving Russian oil already stranded at sea, unlikely to provide significant financial benefit to Russia.
• Trump admin reportedly rules out deploying Treasury Department to trade oil futures for now amid belief that it will have a limited meaningful effect, Bloomberg sources report.
• Japan is reportedly considering a release from its national oil stockpile, even without coordinated international action, Kyodo reported.
• Gold is being sold at a discount of as much as USD 30/oz in Dubai, Bloomberg reported citing sources; due to elevated shipping and insurance costs.
• Qatar Energy Minister al-Kaabi cautions that the Middle East conflict could cause all Gulf energy producers to have to shut production within weeks, increasing oil to USD 150/bbl, FT reported.
• India has asked all its refiners to ⁠maximise ⁠production of liquefied petroleum gas and make the fuel available only to three state-run ⁠companies - Indian Oil (IOCL IS), HPCL (HPCL IS) and BPCL (BPCL IS), a ⁠government cited by ET order showed.
• Reliance (REL IS) is looking to buy Russian oil after the US granted India a licence to temporarily buy cargoes, Bloomberg reported citing sources.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump said oil appears to have pretty much stabilised, and further action to reduce pressure on oil is coming, also said Iran wants to ‘make a deal’ to end the conflict.
• Iran reportedly targeted US bases in Kuwait with drones, according to Iranian State Media; Iran’s army says drone attacks against US bases in Kuwait to continue in the coming hours.
• Iran to use newer missiles in the coming days, Fars News reported.
• US Secretary of War Hegseth said US has just begun to fight in Iran and that Iran is wrong in its calculations if it thinks we can't continue the war. Firepower used in Iran is to increase significantly.
• Maersk (MAERSKB DC) said it has decided to temporarily suspend services connecting the Middle East to the far East and Europe; decision has been taken as a precautionary measure.
• Iranian Foreign Minister said Iran has no choice but to continue fighting, Al Arabiya reported.
• US and Israel have increased airstrikes on Iran’s border with Iraq as US President Trump called on the Kurdish minority there to rise up against Iran's government, according to Washington Post.
• Satellite imagery taken Tuesday shows extensive damage to Iran’s Khojir missile production site, according to Washington Post.
• US Central Command Commander said our operation against Iran is going well and we are moving at a fast pace. said:. Ballistic missile attacks by Iran have decreased by 90% since day one. As we transition to the next phase of the operation, we will dismantle Iran's missile production capability.
• US House votes 219-212 to reject the war powers resolution on Iran.
• Foreign ministers of Arab League member states will hold an emergency meeting on Sunday to discuss Iran’s attacks on several countries in the region, WSJ reported. The meeting will be held via video conference, was requested by Saudi Arabia, according to Arab sources.
• Israeli PM's aide said "so far the operation is proceeding as planned; we are seeing the first cracks in the regime, but patience is needed"; adds that US President Trump and Israeli President Netanyahu speak daily.
• Republicans are preparing to confront a huge price tag for the Middle East war following closed-door briefings which detailed the fast consumption of munitions and lack of any firm deadline for the campaign, Politico reported citing sources. Senior Republicans expect the administration to request tens of billions of dollars, with some lawmakers hearing estimates that the Pentagon is spending as much as USD 2bln/day.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Jan Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. -0.3%, prior 0%
• 8:30 am: United States Jan Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0%, prior 0%
• 8:30 am: United States Feb Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 55k, prior 130k
• 8:30 am: United States Feb Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. -1.5k, prior 5k
• 8:30 am: United States Feb Unemployment Rate, est. 4.3%, prior 4.3%
• 7:30 am: United States Fed’s Waller on Bloomberg TV
• 8:30 am: United States Fed’s Daly on CNBC
• 9:50 am: United States Fed’s Goolsbee on Bloomberg TV
• 10:15 am: United States Fed’s Daly & Paulson Participate in Panel Discussion
• 11:30 am: United States Fed’s Schmid Speaks on Policy and Outlook
• 11:30 am: United States Fed’s Miran on CNBC
• 1:20 pm: United States Fed’s Collins Delivers Keynote Address
• 1:30 pm: United States Fed’s Hammack Speaks at Monetary Policy Forum
• 3:10 pm: United States Fed’s Hammack Appears on Bloomberg TV

Main Rating Changes:

DB's Jim Reid concldues the overnight wrap

There's not much synchronisation in markets at the moment as we welcome in another payrolls Friday today. This one will be obviously overshadowed by events in the Middle East. Indeed, the market selloff resumed over the last 24 hours, with equities and bonds posting fresh declines as the war in the Middle East showed no sign of ending. That’s raising fears about a more protracted conflict, with investors increasingly alarmed that the oil price spike will become entrenched, pushing up inflation around the world. Indeed, Brent crude was up another +4.93% yesterday to $85.41/bbl, closing at its highest level since mid-2024. And in turn, that’s meant investors have kept pricing out the chance of further rate cuts, leading to another spike in bond yields on both sides of the Atlantic. Indeed, 10yr bund yields (+9.0bps) posted their biggest daily jump in exactly a year, back when the debt brake reforms were announced. There has been some respite in the Asia session as there are some hopes that the US is looking at options to address the energy price spike.

The reality is though that we continue to trade competing headlines, with risk appetite swinging back and forth over the past 24 hours. At the outset yesterday, there was actually some optimism after Iran’s IRNA reported that the deputy foreign minister said they were ready to get rid of their uranium stockpile in the US talks, “provided we get something good in return”. However, any optimism that some kind of negotiated settlement could be enroute faded as the session went on, with signs that, if anything, the conflict was spreading. In fact, Azerbaijan was the latest country to be hit by Iranian drones, and their Defense Ministry said that “These acts of aggression will not go unanswered”. And elsewhere across the region, a refinery was struck in Bahrain and the US evacuated its embassy in Kuwait, while the UAE told Abu Dhabi residents to seek immediate shelter. Around the same time Trump suggested he wanted a say in the Iran leadership succession which potentially complicates prospects of a diplomatic resolution. And Iran’s Foreign Minister said that it currently saw no reason to engage in talks with the US.

We did see some improvement in market sentiment late in the US session, as Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said that the administration is looking at options to address the spike in oil and gasoline prices, with Reuters reporting that this could include potential action involving the oil futures market. Later in the evening the US issued a 30-day waiver for Indian purchases of Russian oil. According to Treasury Secretary Bessent, the measure is aimed at Russian oil that is already stranded at sea, so should be viewed as more of a short-term relief for Asian refiners. Coupled with Burgum’s comments, this has supported some reversal in oil price gains overnight, with Brent down -0.94% to $84.61/bbl as I type. S&P 500 futures (+0.22%) are a touch higher, while the dollar index is down -0.37% after yesterday’s +0.55% gain.
But net net, it’s been only a partial offset from yesterday’s news flow that saw Brent crude (+4.93%) rise to $85.41/bbl, whilst WTI (+8.51%) rose to $81.01/bbl, its biggest increase since May 2020. What’s been notable is that investors are increasingly pricing in an extended conflict, and we can see that from energy futures further out the curve. For instance, the Brent crude oil future for 12 months’ time was up another +1.58% yesterday to $69.90/bbl, which is their biggest increase so far this week. So in other words, there’s growing doubt that this is going to be over quickly.

With oil prices continuing to rise, investors grew more doubtful about central bank rate cuts this year, with the prospect of hikes even coming into view. That was particularly clear for the ECB, where a hike by December moved up to a 63% chance by the close, which is the first time in 2026 that it’s been above 50%. A 55% probability of a cut was priced in as recently as last Friday. So that contributed to a sharp selloff for European sovereign bonds, with yields on 10yr bunds (+9.0bps), OATs (+11.7bps) and BTPs (+13.2bps) all moving higher. Meanwhile, ECB officials struck a watchful tone over the situation, with Banque de France Governor Villeroy saying he didn’t see any reason today to raise rates, while ECB Vice President de Guindos said an extended war could raise inflation expectations and prompt a change in the policy stance.

It was a similar story in the US, where markets are now pricing in just 40bps of Fed cuts by December, the fewest so far this year. That came as Fed officials acknowledged the potential for inflation to rise, with Richmond Fed President Barkin saying “Gas prices, obviously, if they’re up, that is inflationary”. And remember that core PCE was already 3.0% before this latest shock, so investors have become increasingly sceptical that the Fed will be able to deliver rapid rate cuts under a new Chair. In addition, the latest weekly initial jobless claims were slightly beneath expectations, at 213k in the week ending Feb 28 (vs. 215k expected), so that added to the optimism ahead of today's jobs report. And we saw more positive comments on the labour market from Fed Vice Chair Bowman, who said it showed more “signs of stabilizing”. So collectively, that data and the latest rise in oil prices pushed Treasury yields higher, with the 2yr yield (+3.1bps) up to 3.58%, whilst the 10yr yield (+3.9bps) moved up to 4.14%.

The US labour market will remain in the spotlight today, as we’ll also be getting the latest jobs report for February. In terms of what to expect, our US economists think that payrolls will be up +30k, coming down from the 13-month high of +130k in January. Then for unemployment, they see that remaining at 4.3%, but they note that carries elevated risks in both directions given that the BLS will implement their annual population controls. For more details, click here for their preview.

For equities, it was another rough day as fears mounted about a sustained oil shock. So the S&P 500 (-0.56%) moved back into negative territory for 2026, though it did recover from an intra-day low of -1.44% after the news that the US could intervene in energy markets.  Interestingly, software and services stocks were the standout outperformer (+1.84%), with that component of the index hitting a one-month high. This included a +1.59% gain for Oracle as Bloomberg reported that it is planning a round of job cuts. By contrast the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell -1.17% as Bloomberg reported that US officials were mulling regulations that would require approval for exports of AI chips to anywhere in the world. And it was a rough session more broadly, with consumer staples (-2.27%) and materials (-2.43%) stocks leading on the downside in the S&P amid the concern over energy costs. There were even bigger declines in Europe given their greater exposure to any energy shock. So the STOXX 600 (-1.29%) fell back, alongside declines for the DAX (-1.61%), the CAC 40 (-1.49%) and the FTSE 100 (-1.45%).

In Asia, the Nikkei (+0.51%) is recovering from initial losses but is still on course for a weekly decline exceeding -5.5%. Meanwhile, Chinese related stocks are making gains, with the Hang Seng (+1.85%) leading the way as it benefits from a rally in recently weakened technology shares, while the CSI (+0.20%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.25%) are also experiencing modest increases. The KOSPI has recovered from earlier larger losses and is -0.15%, but still heading towards a weekly drop of more than -10%, and the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.03%) is trading notably lower, on track for a weekly loss of approximately -4.0%.

Finally, this weekend, there’s a German state election taking place in Baden-Württemberg, which will be the first of five regional elections this year. Our economists in Germany have a preview of the votes (link here), where they outline why the election outcomes matter for the stability of the Merz government. They point out that victories for the governing parties might positively impact reform momentum at the federal level over the spring/early summer. But they also point out that heavy losses have been a catalyst in the past for early federal elections, as seen in 2005 (after the SPD lost the key state of North-Rhine Westphalia) and in 2024 (after a series of electoral losses for the FDP).

Looking at the day ahead, the main data highlight will be the US jobs report for February, but we’ll also get US retail sales for January and German factory orders for January. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Daly, Paulson, Collins and Hammack, long with the ECB’s Cipollone and Schnabel.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 08:28

The post Drugs are Cheap if Patents Don’t Make Them Expensive: The Medicines for the People Act appeared first on CEPR.

Senate Democrats Introduce Bill To Break Up Major Meatpacking Companies

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and 12 other senators introduced legislation on March 5 that would force the nation’s largest meatpackers to break up their operations across beef, pork, and poultry, in the latest push in the Democratic affordability agenda heading into the 2026 midterm elections.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) speaks at a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington on Jan. 14, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The Family Grocery and Farmer Relief Act would make it illegal for a major meatpacking company to control more than one type of meat, impose concentration caps on beef markets, and give the Federal Trade Commission authority to order divestitures of plants and facilities.

The bill would also bar foreign-controlled meatpacking companies, including Brazil-based JBS, from operating in the United States.

Schumer framed the legislation as a direct response to rising grocery costs, citing federal data showing a 16 percent increase in beef prices over the past year.

“The pernicious stranglehold of the meatpacking monopoly has weakened our supply chains and price gouged consumers at the grocery store,” Schumer said in a statement.

“Democrats are going to do what [President] Donald Trump refuses to do: put the affordability crisis front and center, every day, all year long.”

The bill is cosponsored by Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Peter Welch (D-Vt.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Rubén Gallego (D-Ariz.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.). No Republican senators have signed on.

The Epoch Times reached out to the Senate Agriculture Committee to ask whether there is Republican support for the legislation but did not receive a response by publication time.

Currently, four companies control roughly 85 percent of the U.S. beef market, 67 percent of the pork market, and more than 60 percent of the chicken processing market, according to data cited in the legislation and by the White House in its own criticism of the industry. Four decades ago, the top four beef packers controlled about 36 percent of the market, according to the bill’s text.

The concentration of the meatpacking industry has drawn scrutiny from both parties. In November 2025, President Donald Trump directed the Department of Justice to investigate the Big Four meatpackers for potential collusion and price fixing, saying that “action must be taken immediately to protect consumers, combat illegal monopolies.”

Under the proposed legislation, the Federal Trade Commission would develop divestiture plans within 120 days.

A separate provision would require foreign-controlled meatpacking companies to divest their U.S. operations. It specifically names JBS, whose parent company paid more than $280 million in 2020 to settle Justice Department charges related to bribery of foreign government officials. The bill also calls for a study of other foreign-owned processors, including Chinese-owned Smithfield Foods.

The Small Business Administration would be authorized to provide loans and technical assistance to farmers’ cooperatives and small businesses looking to acquire divested facilities.

At a roundtable hosted by Senate Democrats last week, several farming and advocacy groups voiced support for antitrust action in the sector.

“Unpredictable trade policies and corporate consolidation are squeezing family farmers on one end and consumers on the other,” said Rob Larew, president of the National Farmers Union.

Joe Maxwell, president of the Farm Action Fund, said, “When the same handful of firms dominate beef, pork, and chicken, competition breaks down, leaving farmers with too few buyers and families paying more.”

Mike Callicrate, a rancher and member of Ranchers-Cattlemen Action Legal Fund United Stockgrowers of America, a cattle producers’ trade association, said it is “past time to enforce anti-trust laws and break up the meat monopolies like Congress did in the 1920s.”

The meat industry pushed back sharply. The Meat Institute, a trade association representing companies that process the majority of red meat and turkey in the United States, called the bill “absurd” and said it would raise costs, not lower them.

“If the Senator is trying to make meat and poultry more affordable for consumers, this is the wrong approach,“ said Julie Anna Potts, president and CEO of the Meat Institute. ”It will have the opposite effect.”

Potts said the bill ignores market realities, noting that the U.S. cattle herd is at its smallest level in 75 years and that beef packers have recently experienced record losses of more than $350 per head. She also questioned the feasibility of forced divestitures, asking who would have the capital and expertise to buy and operate the facilities.

“The ensuing chaos and likely significant drop in meat production will upset delicate supply and demand forces, ultimately forcing retail and food service to hike consumer prices,” Potts said.

“It comes at exactly the wrong time, when food prices are already too high for many American families.”

She said the bill “incentivizes beef and pork packing to leave the U.S. for foreign countries.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 08:05

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

• Starting Your Own Business Is All the Rage Again: The threats and opportunities presented by artificial intelligence are driving people to bet on themselves (Wall Street Journal)

• ADP Jobs Report Shows White-Collar Losses in February: The professional and managerial class is getting hit hardest in the latest hiring data. The college-educated job market continues to deteriorate even as GDP holds up. (Quartz) see also  Unprecedented ‘Jobless Boom’ Tests Limits of US Economic Expansion: GDP grew 2.7% in 2025 while employment barely budged — a combination that hasn’t happened in the postwar era outside a recession. College-educated workers are bearing the brunt as AI reshapes white-collar work. We’re sitting on a one-legged stool. (Bloomberg)

• The Case of the Disappearing Secretary: A strange, well-reported story about a senior government official who seems to have vanished from public life. The mystery deepens the more you look. (Rowland Manthorpe)

• I Got a Coveted Invitation to See New York’s Most Secretive Condo Project: Sales at 80 Clarkson have reached over $1 billion, with minimal marketing and little press (Wall Street Journal)

• Trump’s “Warflation” Has Just Begun: The Bulwark on how the Iran conflict is about to send prices higher across the board — energy, shipping, insurance, defense spending. The inflationary impulse from war is just getting started. (The Bulwark)

• How Is Kalshi Not Gambling? On Kalshi, people have placed bets on everything from football games to foreign affairs. The prediction market’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, says this doesn’t count as gambling—and is actually good for society. (Wired)

• Judge orders US Customs to process refunds on illegal Trump tariffs: More than 2,000 lawsuits have been filed by companies in the court seeking to recoup their money after Supreme Court invalidated tariffs last month (Reuters)

• Powell Won, but the Fed Might Still Lose: Powell’s extraordinary video calling out the DOJ worked — for now. But with his term ending in May and sustained presidential pressure on rates, even his allies aren’t sure the institution survives the longer war. (Wall Street Journal)

• The Dangerous Mismatch Between American Missiles and Iranian Drones: The United States has only so many expensive munitions to send after Iran’s cheap and plentiful arms. (The Atlantic)

• ‘This Whole Thing Is Not Normal’: Inside the ‘Baywatch’ Reboot Casting Call With 2,000 Wannabe Lifeguards: You simply cannot wear a red Speedo in the rain. Variety goes inside the surreal mass casting call for TV’s most improbable comeback. (Variety)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview  this weekend with Bill Gurley of Benchmark about his big bets investing early in now-common names like Uber, Zillow, Grubhub, OpenTable and others, plus his new book, “Runnin’ Down a Dream: How to Thrive in a Career You Actually Love“.

 

At 66.40%, the greatest number of index constituents are outperforming the S&P 500 index itself over the last 50 years

Source: @BlakeMillardCFA

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

The US Leads The World In The Weight-Loss Injection Boom

Novo Nordisk’s obesity-drug franchise has surged at a remarkable pace. In just four years, revenue from its weight-management treatments ballooned roughly tenfold - from about $1.3 billion in 2021 to approximately $12.4 billion in 2025. The growth has been fueled largely by Wegovy, the company’s blockbuster weight-loss drug built around the active ingredient semaglutide and marketed as a once-weekly injection.

Semaglutide itself was originally developed to treat type 2 diabetes and continues to be sold under the brand name Ozempic for that purpose. The primary difference between the two products lies in dosage. As Statista notes, Wegovy is formulated at higher semaglutide levels for weight management, while Ozempic is designed for blood-sugar control in diabetic patients. In practice, however, Ozempic has frequently been prescribed off-label for weight loss - a practice that is restricted or prohibited in several European Union countries.

Regardless of branding, the United States has emerged as Novo Nordisk’s most important market. According to the company’s 2025 annual report, the U.S. accounts for the overwhelming share of sales for both Ozempic and Wegovy. For drugs marketed specifically for weight loss, more than 60% of global revenue comes from the American market - a reflection of both the country’s large pharmaceutical sector and its high obesity rates, which have helped make the U.S. the epicenter of the global GLP-1 boom.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 05:45

'Mr. Gold' Warns Of 'System Reset' As Silver Lights Fuse Of Derivatives Time-Bomb

Authored by Greg Hunter via usawatchdog.com,

Financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter (aka Mr. Gold) predicted that by March, silver would likely suffer a failure to deliver physical metal at COMEX. In other words, demand for physical silver will swamp the existing supply. The math is scary and simple, and Holter breaks it down, “The registered inventory at COMEX in silver is 86 million ounces. On the second day of March, there are already 52 million ounces of silver standing for delivery. That leaves 30 million to 35 million ounces unspoken for. . .. This looks dicey. If they have 52 million ounces standing for delivery now, where is it going to be at the end of the month? If silver fails to deliver, then what you are going to have in the gold market is buyers stepping up that normally would not even buy and ask for delivery. . .. The bottom line is if silver fails to deliver, gold will fail to deliver in 24 hours. Once that happens, then confidence breaks. . .. You are looking at two quadrillion dollars in derivatives in a global economy with $350 trillion in debt with an underlying $100 trillion annual GDP. The math does not work. I think silver, and I have said this for many years, silver will be the spark or the fuse that lights off gold, which then lights off the derivatives time bomb. Warren Buffett calls derivatives weapons of mass financial destruction.”

Mr. Gold thinks, “When the system resets, governments will start a money print fest that will touch off global hyperinflation. . .. The pure math of debt outstanding is that it cannot be repaid in current terms. It will be hyperinflation of the things we need and hyper-deflation of the things we already have. . .. How is somebody going to buy your house if the capital is not there? If the capital is not there, then the price is going to have to come down. . .. It is highly likely that silver will kick off the demise of the financial system.”

Mr. Gold thinks this kind of global debt will go bad fast. Holter warns, “When this thing cascades and collapses, you are either in place, or you are out of place. If you are out of place, you will not be able to repair your mistake. It will be a lifetime mistake to have not gotten ready. Let me just say there is a difference in being early and being wrong. In 2000 to 2005, if you were buying gold or you were buying silver, you were an idiot, a complete idiot, and people thought you walked around with a tin foil hat on. . .. Now, we are at the point where the best place to have invested your money since January 2000 would be in gold or silver. When Noah was running around building his ark, he looked wrong. He was not wrong–he was just early."

Watch:

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 05:00

Stop The War... Because 'Global Warming'!!!

Via notalotofpeopleknowthat blog,

Apparently our climate propagandists are not bothered about the Mad Mullahs!

War makes climate change worse in many ways, and vice versa.

The US-Israel attacks on Iran that began over the weekend have killed hundreds of civilians and sent oil prices soaring, but this war also promises to unleash massive amounts of planet-warming gases at a time when civilization is already hurtling toward irreversible climate breakdown.

Not every story about the Iran war needs to make the climate connection, but climate change is essential context if the public and policymakers are to understand the full dimensions of this conflict.

Join Covering Climate Now and a panel of experts for a discussion about the geopolitical and climate implications of the war on Iran, which has one of the world’s largest oil reserves.

Their only concern is that a war might put a bit more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere!

They would no doubt be much happier with a nuclear winter!

At least it will lower global warming.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 04:15

The Planned "NATO Bank" Is Expected To Finance Europe's Impending Arms Race With Russia

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The Russian-Polish security dilemma will likely serve as the impetus for fully unleashing and properly managing the capabilities of European NATO as a whole per the US’ National Defense Strategy.

RT drew attention in late January to a report by Izvestia about the West’s alleged plans to launch a “Defense, Security, and Resilience Bank” (DSRB) by 2027. Their article relies on in-depth research by the Atlantic Council, which came up with the idea of what was at first called the “NATO Bank”. The purpose is to provide “low-interest loans for defense modernization”, thus facilitating the goal of NATO members spending 5% of GDP on defense without significantly curtailing social and infrastructure spending.

Instead of slashing such programs to redirect funds to defense at the risk of helping populist-nationalists during the next elections and/or provoking unrest, they’d only spend a fraction of the principal each year servicing their DSRB loan instead of paying the cost upfront as if it was part of their annual expenditures. The Executive Summary of the Atlantic Council’s in-depth research hyperlinked to above also notes that “An additional critical function of the DSR bank would be to underwrite the risk for commercial banks”.

This would then “enabl[e] them to extend financing to defense companies across the supply chain.” The supplementary purpose is to finance large-scale orders that these companies themselves are unable to afford on their own and most member states can’t finance either without potential populist pushback. Defense companies can then expand production, pump out the requested military-technical equipment at scale, and then sell it at a much more affordable price for accelerating NATO’s planned militarization.

The bloc’s Eastern Flank, which largely overlaps with the Polish-led “Three Seas Initiative”, is expected to benefit the most. Poland is already poised to receive €44 billion in loans from the EU’s €150 billion “Security Action For Europe” program (SAFE, which is part of the €800 billion “ReArm Europe Plan”). This should help modernize its embarrassingly underdeveloped military-industrial complex and thus enable Poland to serve as the regional core of associated processes across the rest of the Eastern Flank.

The aforesaid role would become much more likely if it and Lithuania succeed in creating a defense-centric cross-border economic zone across the Suwalki Corridor/Gap like the latter just proposed. The US National Defense Strategy assessed that “European NATO dwarfs Russia in economic scale, population, and, thus, latent military power.” This potential just needs to be fully unleashed and properly managed. Poland could pioneer the way if it allows the US to advise it on the optimal use of SAFE and DSRB loans.

It was already assessed that “Poland Will Play A Central Role In Advancing The US’ National Security Strategy In Europe” so it therefore naturally follows that it’ll play a central role in the National Defense Strategy too. Poland already spends more of its GDP on defense than any other NATO member at 4.8%, however, so anything much more might result in curtailing social and infrastructure spending, but therein lies the importance of the DSRB for enabling Poland to avert that trade-off as was explained.

Poland’s debt-to-GDP is 55.1%, which is far below the EU’s 80.7%, so it could take on more debt through these means without too much socio-political discomfort. This is feasible after Poland just became a $1 trillion economy. Any additional military spending fueled by the DSRB would further accelerate Poland’s unprecedented militarization, which has led to it having the EU’s largest army at over 215,000 troops, with plans to reach 300,000 by 2030 and half a million by 2039 (200,000 of which would be reservists).

From Russia’s perspective, this poses a serious threat to Kaliningrad and allied Belarus, ergo why it’s expected to correspondingly bolster its forces there in response. That could also include the deployment of more strategic arms to Belarus like tactical nukes, hypersonic Oreshniks, and/or whatever else it might develop by then. Such responses are in turn expected to be portrayed by Poland as the reason for its unprecedented militarization that policymakers might then demand to be sped up even further.

The Russian-Polish security dilemma, which is due to their millennium-old rivalry and the US’ empowering of Poland as an anti-Russian proxy, will likely serve as the impetus for fully unleashing and properly managing the capabilities of European NATO as a whole per the US’ National Defense Strategy. Any progress in this direction would compel Russia to keep pace with this hostile bloc’s Polish-led militarization, therefore resulting in its own continued militarization and consequently an arms race.

Unlike European NATO members which will have to take out loans to finance this, hence the purpose of the DSRB, Russia can finance everything on its own. This places Russia in a much better financial position than its adversaries, some of whom are expected to struggle with balancing their perceived military priorities with their objective socio-economic ones.

Accordingly, Russia has the edge in this impending arms race with Europe, but the EU’s potential federalization could narrow the gap if it ever happens.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 03:30

The Roman Empire Peaked In 117 AD

What did Ancient Rome look like at its peak in 117 AD? 

The map below from Visual Capitalist shows the maximum territorial extent ever achieved by the Roman Empire, just after their successful wars in the east, where Emperor Trajan captured Dacia (Romania), Armenia, Mesopotamia, Assyria, and the Parthian capital of Ctesiphon (in modern-day Iraq).

Click on the map to expand...

As Visual Capitalist explains further, although Trajan is rated as one of the best Roman Emperors by historians and was considered one of the strongest military leaders in Roman history, the reality is that the peak he achieved was very short-lived.

We’ll dig into that and more as we explain this map, which covers one of the most interesting periods in history, leveraging classical and modern sources including Cassius Dio, Plutarch, Cambridge Ancient History, Walter Scheidel, Fergus Millar, Adrian Goldsworthy, Anthony Everitt, and Encyclopaedia Britannica.

Trajan: The First Emperor Born Outside of Italy

Trajan was born in Italica, Spain, near modern-day Seville. He was a career soldier and became an extremely competent and respected general. He was adopted as the heir to the childless Nerva, and became emperor after Nerva’s passing in 98 AD.

Once emperor, Trajan was famous for his civic investment and military expansion. He built roads, harbors, aqueducts, and the Forum of Trajan in Rome—but he also conquered distant lands decisively.

The Roman Empire at its Overextended Peak

Various limits—cultural, geographical, logistical, and administrative—seem to prevent historical empires from achieving infinite expansion.

Trajan tested these limits and eventually came upon the breaking point. Dacia (Romania) was arguably his greatest military achievement and remained a Roman province for almost two centuries after. His experiments to the East, however, were less of a slam dunk.

His battles with Parthia (the other Mediterranean superpower at the time) led to quick expansion into Armenia, Mesopotamia, and Assyria. However, these vast territorial gains were fragile:

• Supply lines were long, exposed, and costly.
• Massive revolts broke out in Judea and across the Jewish diaspora, in Libya, Egypt, and Cyprus.
• Parthia remained intact as a power, despite symbolic defeats.

In hindsight, the map captures not just Rome’s greatest triumph—but the moment it became overextended.

Could Trajan hold it together as the empire came under strain?

The End of Trajan’s Reign, and a New Imperial Strategy

Conquering territory and holding it are two very different challenges.

With troops diverted across multiple fronts, the new gains quickly started unraveling for Trajan. At the same time, now in his early 60s, his health also began to fail. As he was returning to Rome, he stopped in Cilicia (modern-day southern Türkiye), where he passed away.

Hadrian, the following emperor, immediately recognized that the empire had tested its limits and now needed to consolidate. He built Hadrian’s Wall in the UK, and abandoned most of Trajan’s eastern conquests to focus on stabilization.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 02:45

With Europe Vulnerable To An Energy Crisis, Putin Says Russia May Pull The Plug On Gas Supplies To Europe

Via Remix News,

The Russian government, along with domestic energy companies, is examining whether or not to immediately withdraw from the European market, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a statement to Rossiya 1 television on Wednesday evening.

Putin appears to be reacting to the indication from Brussels that Russian energy may, after all, be needed in the short term, due to the war in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

However, Putin may just decide to pull the plug now and start transitioning to other countries and regions that are not threatening a ban, reports Hirado.

“They (…) plan to introduce restrictions on the purchase of Russian gas, including liquefied gas, starting in a month, (March) 25. A year later, in (20)27, further restrictions will come into effect, up to a complete ban.

Now other markets are opening up. And perhaps it would be more beneficial for us to stop deliveries to the European market now.

To move to those markets that are opening up and gain a foothold there,” he said.

The move comes at time when gas prices are surging across Europe, leaving the EU vulnerable to a further supply shock.

Putin made clear that no decision has been made in the case.

“We will see what will happen in this area,” he said, “but this is a very dangerous game, especially today.”

 “According to the data available to our services, just as they once blew up the Nord Streams, now in Kyiv, with the support of some Western services, they are preparing to blow up the Blue Stream and the Turkish Stream. We have informed our Turkish friends about this matter,” he said.

The Russian president also called the attack on a Russian gas tanker in the Mediterranean Sea an act of terrorism.

Putin additionally called Russia a reliable supplier, explaining that the increase in European gas prices is not directly related to supplies, because they have not decreased overall, but rather the result of the general situation on the world market.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 02:00

Central Banks Can't Stop Wars

Authored by Alexander Salter via TheDailyEconomy.org,

Every time conflict erupts in the Middle East and oil prices jump, the same anxiety follows: will central banks respond with tighter money?

It’s an understandable fear. Households dislike inflation, and policymakers are tasked with maintaining price stability. But when inflation is driven by geopolitical crises — such as war in Iran or disruptions to global shipping lanes — the source is not excessive demand. It is a supply shock. And monetary policy is impotent before such disruptions.

When oil supply tightens or transport costs surge, the economy becomes poorer. Energy becomes more expensive to extract and move. No interest rate decision in Washington, Frankfurt, or London can produce more oil from the Persian Gulf or reopen a blocked trade route.

In these moments, central banks face a difficult but crucial choice. They can tighten monetary policy in an attempt to suppress inflation by weakening demand, slowing hiring, curbing investment, and cooling total dollar spending. Or they can allow a temporary period of elevated prices to absorb part of the shock while keeping the broader economy intact.

The instinct to “do something” about supply-side price hikes is powerful. But tightening monetary conditions to combat a supply shock risks compounding the damage. Slower money growth and higher rate targets do not solve the underlying scarcity. They merely redistribute the burden — often toward workers.

If energy prices spike because of war, households will pay more at the pump and businesses will face higher costs. That pain is unavoidable. But if central banks respond aggressively by tightening policy, they risk turning an external supply shock into a domestic demand slump. Unemployment rises, investment stalls, and wage growth falters. For the vast majority of workers, having a job amidst 4 percent price growth is preferable to unemployment amidst 2 percent price growth.

There is a long tradition in macroeconomics of distinguishing between demand-driven and supply-driven inflation. When inflation stems from overheated demand (too much spending chasing too few goods), central banks are right to step in. Tightening policy can ease the frenzy without causing long-term economic damage.

But war-induced oil shocks are different. They make the economy less productive. Attempting to fully offset that reality with tighter monetary policy can produce a worse outcome: lower output and higher unemployment layered on top of higher prices.

The least harmful strategy in such circumstances is often to “look through” the initial inflation impulse — provided inflation expectations remain anchored.

That means tolerating temporarily higher headline inflation while emphasizing the external and temporary nature of the shock.

Communication is essential. Central bankers should say plainly that surging prices are the result of geopolitical events beyond their control. The Fed cannot drill for oil or end wars. What it can do is ensure that the financial system remains stable and that panic does not spill over into credit markets.

That role — safeguarding the demand side — is where monetary authorities are most effective during geopolitical crises. They can provide liquidity to prevent financial stress from amplifying the shock, if financial stress indicators suggest it is necessary. They can also reassure markets that banks and capital markets will function smoothly by guaranteeing adequate liquidity. And they can prevent a broader collapse in investment and hiring with standard open-market purchases.

In other words, central banks should focus on preventing second-order effects on the demand side. The danger is not the first jump in energy prices; it is the risk that frightened investors, tightening credit conditions, or collapsing confidence trigger a self-reinforcing downturn.

Critics will argue that tolerating higher inflation, even temporarily, risks unanchoring expectations. That risk is real. But credibility is not built by mechanically reacting to every price increase. It is built by responding appropriately to the source of inflation. If the public understands that central bankers are distinguishing between supply shocks and demand shocks, credibility can be preserved.

The worst outcome would be a policy mistake born of impatience: tightening aggressively in response to war-driven inflation, deepening the economic slowdown, and discovering months later that the original price pressures were fading on their own.

Wars make societies poorer. There’s no getting around the fact that destruction and turmoil are bad for business. Monetary policy will its best work if it avoids making the adjustment more costly than necessary.

When public events exceed the scope of monetary policy, restraint is the least bad option.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 21:30

Cost of Living Crisis Continues As Job Market Wanes

Authored by Mac Slavo via shtfplan.com,

The cost of living crisis is continuing with no end in sight. People used to use their tax refunds for trips or fun experiences, but now they have to either save the money, pay off debt, or use it to keep the lights on or buy groceries.

The sad state of most Americans’ financial status is getting progressively worse, too, as it’s often psychologically damaging as well as economically. Two-thirds of young Americans no longer believe they will ever be able to afford to live where they want. That means living in a place they desire, not having their dream home.

Accoridng to a report by The Hill, consumer spending continues, but the foundation is cracking. Credit card debt has surged to record highs, topping $1.2 trillion. A third of adults have raided their savings in just the past few months. More than a quarter now lean harder on credit cards simply to cover routine purchases. Buy-now-pay-later plans, once marketed for gadgets and fashion, are increasingly used for groceries.

Everything is now more expensive, including housing costs, which jumped sharply in just two years. Coffee prices rose nearly 20 percent year over year, while the cost of beef climbed 15 percent. Medical care rose again, and so did the overall costs of medical insurance and healthcare. These aren’t abstract charts or distant averages, but brutal prices staring back at Americans at checkout counters, pharmacy windows, and rental offices. For those who think people are buying more, they aren’t. They’re paying more for what they’ve always needed.

A high-cost expense, such as a car repair, often flings one into debt for years at this point. Americans are relying on debt not to buy things they don’t need, but to survive. Analysts have said that consumers are “muscling through,” relying on willpower rather than margin. When 70 percent say their area is no longer affordable and nearly half report their finances worsening year over year, that isn’t mass misperception but a clear-eyed assessment of daily reality.

The flailing job market is about to make things worse, too. Just as families scramble to cover today’s bills, the job market that once offered escape is beginning to buckle. People are being replaced by technology as artificial intelligence takes over and never sleeps.

This crisis is compounding, and another war isn’t going to alleviate the pressure.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 20:30

Plot Twist: Kuwaiti Fighter Jet Shot Down All Three US F-15s

In a remarkable feat, a single Kuwaiti F/A-18 Super Hornet took out all three of the American F-15s that were shot down over Kuwait on Sunday, according to sources who spoke to the Wall Street Journal. The new narrative replaces the initial reports that attributed the shootdowns to a Kuwaiti Patriot missile battery. 

Launching just three missiles, a single pilot went three-for-three, destroying the trio of F-15E Strike Eagles, which were purchased for something like a combined $93 million in 1998 dollars, or $187 million today. New F-15EX models go for about $100 million apiece. All six crew members parachuted safely in Kuwaiti territory, though one of them had an unsettling reception from a pipe-wielding Kuwaiti who may have mistaken him for an Iranian pilot:  

Moment crashed US F-15 pilot confronted by pipe-wielding local.

This is the shocking moment a US pilot is almost battered by a pipe-wielding local after he survived his fighter jet being shot down over Kuwait.

Footage shows a group of men aggressively shouting as they approach… pic.twitter.com/A5AwJdyBeo

— Politically Incorrect (@DirtyCitizen) March 3, 2026

The incident happened shortly after an Iranian drone hit a US tactical operations center in Kuwait, killing six US Army Reserve soldiers, say the Journal's sources, who are familiar with the initial reports on the mishap. With many other drones having swarmed the area, when an amped-up Kuwaiti pilot saw jets on his radar, he started blasting.

The airspace in the theater of operations is a madhouse, packed with fighter jets, bombers, reconnaissance craft, fuel tankers, drones, cruise missiles, HIMARS rockets, interceptor missiles, and incoming Iranian missiles and drones. “It’s a busy, busy air environment, and in times of stress, tension, crisis, and, certainly in this case, conflict, even more so,” retired US Air Force B-52 bomber pilot Mark Gunzinger told the Journal.

Retired Army Lt. Gen. Dan Karbler, who led the Army's Space and Missile Defense Command provided additional perspective on these types of incidents and what investigators will look at: 

A fratricide incident like the one in Kuwait usually happens because of several breakdowns in communication or failures in equipment, Karbler said. Investigators will be looking to see if the aircraft friend-or-foe transponders, which are supposed to broadcast the information about a plane electronically, were working properly. Other factors are whether the Kuwaitis knew the planned flight paths of the American jets, whether the aircraft themselves were flying the correct routes and whether Kuwait was able to talk to the F-15s, either electronically or by voice...

“It’s all the more complicated when you have different air defense systems operating on different frequencies that aren’t integrated, and some of those systems are actively trying to counter threats such as drones,” he said.

A Kuwaiti F/A 18 Super Hornet like this one made quick work of three US F-15s on Sunday

The incident will hang an asterisk on the F-15's otherwise flawless record, with none of the craft ever having been shot down in air-to-air combat -- going 104-0 since they were introduced in the 1970s. Military aviation wonks are taking a keen interest in the particulars of Sunday's incident. For example, here's TWZ's Tyler Rogoway: 

Three shoot-downs and everyone made it out alive sounds like tail-aspect shots made by smaller yield weapons. Also, if the Super Hornet employed passive heat seeking missiles (AIM-9 Sidewinder), the F-15E pilots would not have known they were being engaged until the weapon detonated. There are caveats to this, including if the Hornet had used its radar to assist in the Sidewinder lock. But Kuwaiti Hornets were clearly in the airspace at the time defending against drones, so even being painted by their radar may not have indicated how serious the situation was about to become.

Iran has claimed its forces shot down the F-15s. Of course, even if the Iranian military didn't fire the weapons that doomed the three craft, Iran's strategy of responding to unprovoked Israeli-US warfare by lashing out at countries all around the region certainly precipitated the disaster. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 20:00

The Duke Lacrosse Case Exposed The Rot In Higher Education, The Media, And The Justice System

Authored by William L. Anderson via the Mises Institute,

Twenty years ago this month, the infamous Duke Lacrosse Case exploded on the Duke University campus, with three members of the university’s lacrosse team falsely accused of raping and assaulting a black stripper. It took more than a year to exonerate those young men, but only after the false charges had ruined lives and exposed elite higher education in the US.

As one who wrote nearly 100 articles on this case and who was interviewed on talk shows, along with working with some of the attorneys and families involved in the case, I saw it from the inside. I reported on prosecutors who lied and knowingly filed false charges and suborned perjury to cover their lies, police who lied at every turn of what turned out to be a sham investigation, and members of the Duke University faculty and administration who took part in framing innocent people for a crime that did not happen. And hovering over all of the wreckage was a combination of national and local media whose reporters—with some heroic exceptions—followed a false narrative until it drove them right over a cliff.

There is a standard narrative that the media and others want us to imagine: three young men were falsely accused of terrible crimes, but after diligent investigations by the authorities and good-faith efforts by others, the lacrosse players were exonerated while the malefactors were punished. In the end, the system worked.

That narrative is a lie, and over these next few weeks, I will deal with the different aspects of the case, from the police and prosecution to the Duke faculty and administration and to the media. There are numerous villains in this story and very few “good guys.” Furthermore, other than a mild punishment given to the lead prosecutor who committed numerous felonies during his reign of terror, none of the others who participated in pushing this false case faced any sanctions at all and many of the worst actors found themselves gaining even more power and wealth after the saga ended.

Far from being a situation in which the justice system “worked,” the Duke Lacrosse Case was the proverbial canary in the coal mine, a warning as to just how badly the system would veer off course when one of its members decided to lie with impunity. And it wasn’t just the justice system that showed its utter corruption. Duke’s foray into what now is called Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) would be a driving force in forcing attorneys for the players to do something unprecedented in US educational and justice history: attorneys filing a request for a change of venue because the university’s faculty and administration had behaved like a lynch mob.

And even after the lies in the case were exposed, nothing changed. Just seven years after the players were declared “innocent” Rolling Stone magazine, which had already disgraced itself in its coverage of the lacrosse case, published a story alleging rape and assault at the University of Virginia called “A Rape on Campus”—a story that was a complete fabrication and ultimately cost the magazine millions of dollars in settlements against people who were libeled and even was condemned by the left-wing Columbia Journalism Review.

Of course, the national media at first accepted the Rolling Stone piece as gospel truth just as it swallowed whole the Duke Lacrosse account. In both stories, the facts quickly established that both situations were built on lies, but the narratives that mainstream journalists follow rarely bow to the facts and the so-called “Newspaper of Record,” the New York Times, was probably the worst offender in the Duke case, with the possible exception of the local Durham Herald Sun.

The blogosphere and other internet outlets were a different story. While mainstream journalists (with the exception of the late Ed Bradley of CBS News’ “60 Minutes”) were siding with the prosecution and the Duke faculty, a number of bloggers and writers, led by KC Johnson—a Harvard-educated history professor at Brooklyn College whose blog Durham-in-Wonderland took the case apart time and again—exposing one lie after another. If anything, the Duke Lacrosse Case demonstrated the power of the internet and bloggers who were more than able to match wits with the most powerful journalists in the world and shoot down their false claims.

Today’s account will outline the fundamentals of the case. After all, it happened 20 years ago, and most people have either forgotten it or never heard of it in the first place. But this story is worth remembering for no other reason than it showed how dishonest police and prosecutors can frame innocent people in broad daylight and it proved that the worst of the academic world was now running the elite universities, and there was no stopping the rot. As written earlier, it was higher education’s canary in the coal mine—and the canary is still dying if not already dead.

It Began with a Party

On Monday, March 13, 2006, Duke University was on spring break, but the highly-ranked lacrosse team—a favorite in the upcoming NCAA championships—was on campus practicing and preparing for its next game. Every year at this time, the team would have a party at the on-campus house on Buchanan Street in Durham, and for the party that night, the captains had called a local escort agency to hire strippers for the evening. (The media insists on calling them “exotic dancers”).

The agency sent two black women, one being Crystal Gail Mangum, and the other Kim Roberts, and both women were prostitutes. They were to be paid $400 each to put on a “show,” but when it became obvious to them that none of the players were going to seek sexual favors with them, the two quickly locked themselves in the tiny bathroom in the house and refused to come out. After about 30 minutes, they walked out and left the building, calling for a ride. Because they had spent so little time actually stripping, the players claimed they had been cheated and they and the two women argued back and forth with some racially-charged language spoken by both sides. Roberts called the police, but when police showed up later, everyone was gone.

That should have been the end of things—a tawdry event that should have done no one proud—but it was not to be. Later that night, Mangum refused to leave Roberts’ car, so Roberts called the police and had Mangum removed. The officer took her to Durham Access, a place where she could be examined for mental disorders. A nurse—against protocol—asked Mangum if she had been raped and, given that a “yes” would mean she would not be committed to a mental health facility, Mangum answered in the affirmative. According to federal law, she then had to be taken to a medical facility to be examined, so she was driven to Duke University Medical Center. Per an account I wrote for an academic journal, this followed:

After arriving at DUMC, Mangum “recanted” her accusations to (Police Sgt. John) Shelton, and then reversed herself. She told a number of conflicting stories, and Shelton loudly announced to the others at DUMC that he did not believe her. According to the lawsuit filed by Robert Ekstrand, the case almost ended there, but was picked up by Mark Gottlieb, a Durham police officer who allegedly had an animus for Duke students. Gottlieb would breathe new life into the case.

The rape exam of Mangum by an ER doctor did not find signs of rape or a beating, but a feminist nurse who signed the examination paper (even though she had not done the exam herself) wrote she saw evidence of “rape” and “blunt force trauma,” and from there the case got legs and ended up in the hands of Michael Nifong—the acting Durham County district attorney who was in a contested primary for election to that office.

Police came to the Buchanan Street house on March 16, accusing the captains of rape, but not making any arrests. Nine days later, the News & Observer—a McClatchy-owned newspaper in Raleigh—had a front-page story authored by Samiha Khanna and Anne Blythe entitled “Dancer Recalls Details of Ordeal” (link no longer available), which featured an interview with Mangum and her father who claimed she was beaten and raped in the Buchanan house bathroom by three members of the lacrosse team. From there, everything exploded.

Within six weeks, police arrested Reade Seligmann, Collin Finnerty, and David Evans, accusing each of them of rape, kidnapping, and assault against Mangum. In April 2007, then-North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper, after a long investigation, declared all three “innocent” of all the charges. Two months after that, the North Carolina State Bar disbarred Nifong—the first time a state prosecutor had faced such consequences—and later that summer, a North Carolina judge sentenced Nifong to spend a day in jail on contempt charges for lying to the court.

Conclusion

Over the next three weeks, I will go into detail of the legal case, the role of the Duke administration and faculty in promoting a false story, and, finally, the role of the mainstream news media in keeping a number of lies alive in the mind of the public. Three important institutions of our society failed so miserably as to make it difficult to salvage anything good from them.

But the Duke case also showed the power of the internet in which ordinary citizens who were not employed by the police, courts, or the media could use the web to push information to the public that ordinarily would not have been able to see at all before the internet existed. While some were able to use the internet to push false accusations and theories of guilt, in the end the truth did prevail, despite the best efforts of the police, prosecutors, Duke faculty, and the New York Times. The institutions these people represented might be hopelessly corrupted, but for now, at least some people can fight back.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 19:30

Texas Dem's Senate Bid Hits Turbulence: 'God is Nonbinary' Zealot Hands Republicans A Golden Ticket

Democrats needed a winner in Texas. They may have nominated a liability instead.

James Talarico barely had time to savor his primary win over Rep. Jasmine Crockett before the Republican opposition research machine started doing what it does best. Within hours of the Associated Press calling the race, an avalanche of old tweets and video clips had already begun circulating - and Republicans are practically giddy. 

The first batch of video ammunition came courtesy of Senate Republicans, who surfaced a clip of Talarico invoking Scripture to defend gender ideology. "God is both masculine and feminine and everything in between. God is nonbinary," he said in the footage.

Meet James Talarico, Texas’ Democrat nominee for U.S. Senate.

He thinks “God is nonbinary.” pic.twitter.com/PTXKT6GdeK

— Senate Republicans (@NRSC) March 4, 2026

He also said, “Trans children are God's children, made in God's own image. There's nothing wrong with them, nothing at all. They are perfect, they are beautiful, and they are sacred. Bullying children is immoral. It's a sin, a special kind of sin.”

This is James Talarico, who just won the Texas Democratic primary for U.S. Senate:

"Trans children are God's children, made in God's own image. There's nothing wrong with them. Nothing at all."pic.twitter.com/w7mIVcyA1B

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) March 4, 2026

Another clip shows Talarico describing the southern border with the kind of metaphor that writes campaign ads for the other side: "Our southern border should be like our front porch. There should be a giant welcome mat out front." 

James Talarico, Democrat nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas: “Our southern border should be like our front porch. There should be a giant welcome mat out front.”

pic.twitter.com/3CXcNI6HaI

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) March 4, 2026

He separately described Jesus as a "radical feminist.” 

JAMES TALARICO: "Did they teach you in Sunday school that Jesus Christ himself was a radical feminist?"

This is the Democrat nominee for Senate in Texas. pic.twitter.com/caVqHhxvoY

— Senate Republicans (@NRSC) March 4, 2026

In 2021, he delivered a floor speech at the Texas statehouse, claiming that "modern science obviously recognizes that there are many more than two biological sexes. In fact, there are six, which honestly, Rep. Hefner, surprised me, too."

Texas Democrat U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico says there are 6 sexes.

TALARICO: "Modern science obviously recognizes that there are many more than two biological sexes, in fact there are six."pic.twitter.com/w2ryke0QoQ

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) March 4, 2026

He also insisted the "trans community" needs "abortion care.” 

JAMES TALARICO: "Our trans community needs abortion care too."

This is who Democrats just nominated as their senate candidate. pic.twitter.com/INHeOteRYs

— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) March 4, 2026

 He's also suggested that atheists can be more "Christ-like" than some of his Christian colleagues.

Texas Democrat U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico says atheists are more Christ-like than Christians:

TALARICO: "I have met so many Hindus, Buddhists, Sikhs, Jews, Muslims, atheists, agnostics who are more Christ-like than some of the Christians I serve with." pic.twitter.com/3Hmz9YbdwY

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) January 30, 2026

Talarico is also being criticized for a social media posts in which he claims that his “white skin” is giving him “immunity” from the “virus of racism.”

"White skin gives me and every white American immunity from the virus,” he wrote on Twitter back on May 8, 2020. “But we spread it wherever we go—through our words, our actions, and our systems. We don't have to be showing symptoms—like a white hood or a Confederate flag—to be contagious." The metaphor was framed around early COVID-19 language and the outrage following the killing of Ahmaud Arbery. It went largely unnoticed at the time. It is not going unnoticed now.

White skin gives me and every white American immunity from the virus. But we spread it wherever we go—through our words, our actions, and our systems. We don’t have to be showing symptoms—like a white hood or a Confederate flag—to be contagious.

— James Talarico (@jamestalarico) May 8, 2020

He also wrote "Radicalized white men are the greatest domestic terrorist threat in our country."

Black Americans in a church.

Mexican Americans in a store.

Asian Americans in a spa.

Radicalized white men are the greatest domestic terrorist threat in our country.

— James Talarico (@jamestalarico) March 18, 2021

Democrats were counting on Talarico to be an electable Democrat who could finally flip Texas. Now, Republicans are laughing.

"If this is a real Talarico post, he is toast," Gov. Greg Abbott said on X. "This is Tim Walz clone territory. He could win in Minnesota, but not in Texas." 

Sen. Ted Cruz wasn't subtle either. "Left-wing zealots are very, very different from ordinary Americans. Among other things, they are open racists," he said. 

Texas Democrats likely passed on Crockett because she was too combative, too polarizing, too much of a guaranteed loss in a state Republicans have held in the Senate since 1988. Talarico was supposed to be the reasonable one who could peel off disenchanted Republicans and make the suburbs competitive. Democrats thought they had momentum with Talarico, but now it looks like all they have is a lot of baggage. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 19:15

AI Agents Prefer Bitcoin Over Fiat: New Study

Authored by Martin Young via Cointelegraph,

A new study from the Bitcoin Policy Institute indicates that artificial intelligence models prefer Bitcoin over stablecoins and other forms of money for different financial situations, with very few showing a preference for fiat currency. 

The BPI tested 36 models generating more than 9,000 responses, and the AI agents “overwhelmingly chose to use Bitcoin for their economic activity,” the institute said on Tuesday as it released the results of its research. 

The study found that 48.3% of AI models chose to use Bitcoin overall, and it was the most selected monetary instrument across all 9,072 responses.

When asked about scenarios involving preserving purchasing power over multi-year horizons, 79.1% of AI responses chose Bitcoin, “the single most lopsided result in the study.”

However, for payment scenarios, services, micropayments, and cross-border transfers, stablecoins were chosen in 53.2% of responses compared to just 36% for Bitcoin.

Bitwise chief investment officer Jeff Park said that the most obvious explanation for stablecoins not doing better is that they “can be frozen, Bitcoin can’t.”

Almost 91% of responses chose a digitally native instrument such as Bitcoin, stablecoins, altcoins, tokenized real-world assets (RWA), or compute units over traditional fiat. 

“Zero of the 36 models tested chose fiat as their top overall preference, making digital-money convergence one of the most universal findings in the study.” 

Half of AI agents prefer Bitcoin. Source: Bitcoin Policy Institute Methodology had limitations

The Bitcoin Policy Institute said the current study was limited to 36 models tested across six providers, and it would look to expand to additional models in the future. 

It also acknowledged that system prompt framing may have influenced the results, adding that “future work will test alternative framings and measure sensitivity.”

This was apparent in some of the “open-ended monetary scenarios” presented to the AI models. 

For example, one scenario asked what financial instrument an AI would choose if it were operating across multiple countries with “75,000 units of accumulated earnings” wanting to store them in a way that is “not tied to any single country’s monetary policy or banking system,” which would already rule out fiat currency. 

BPI also said that the AI models’ preferences do not reflect real-world adoption and that the results instead reflect patterns in the training data.

The study revealed that Anthropic models averaged a 68% Bitcoin preference, whereas OpenAI models averaged 26%, Google’s 43%, and xAI 39%. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 18:25

Data Center Hunter: Iran Expands Drone Target List, From AWS To Microsoft Facilities

Iranian state-affiliated media says the IRGC has targeted Microsoft data centers in the Gulf region with kamikaze drones, days after IRGC drone strikes hit Amazon data centers in the United Arab Emirates. This underscores a new escalation: commercial data centers no longer appear to be off-limits, a risk we warned readers a little more than a month ago.

"The targeting of Amazon and Microsoft in these operations has dealt a serious blow to the enemy's technological and information infrastructure," Fars News Agency said in a Telegram post, as quoted by the Financial Times.

On Monday, two AWS data centers in the UAE were hit by IRGC drones, while an AWS facility in Bahrain was nearly struck by one of these next-generation, low-cost kamikaze drones. These incidents marked the first known instance of a commercial data center being physically targeted in a conflict.

We pointed out in the note titled "Explosion In AI Data Center Buildouts Will Demand Next-Gen Counter-Drone Security" that Wall Street analysts largely end their analysis at the financing and construction of next-generation data centers, with limited discussion regarding the modern security architecture required once these facilities are built and become instant high-value targets for non-state actors or foreign adversaries. Traditional perimeter measures, such as metal chain-link fencing and surveillance systems, are rendered useless in the world of emerging AI threats, including autonomous drone or swarm-based attacks enabled by advances in AI and low-cost unmanned systems.

Related:

• Drone Strikes On Amazon Data Centers In Middle East Reveal Urgent Need To Defend AI

• Airports, Data Centers, Skyscrapers, & Power Plants: Are Desalination Plants Next Targets In U.S.-Iran War

• "Bomb Data Center": Eric Schmidt Warns AI Arms Race Could Spark Global Conflict

It's fair to say that this week, data center operators and financiers around the world have gotten the memo: counter-UAS systems will be needed as buildouts worldwide could exceed $3 trillion by the end of 2028. The hyperdevelopment of war technology in Ukraine over the last four years has pulled the 2030s-era war forward, while the modern world has yet to catch up with defensive systems.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 18:00

Iraqi Supply Loss Could Expose The Real Limits Of OPEC Spare Capacity

Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,

Iraq has already begun shutting in production as exports through the Strait of Hormuz become increasingly constrained. Roughly 1.5 million barrels per day are reportedly offline, and officials have warned that figure could approach 3 million bpd if disruptions persist.

At 3 million bpd, this becomes one of the largest sudden supply losses in the modern market outside of sanctions or war.

Iraq’s total crude production has been running near 4.0–4.3 million bpd, according to recent OPEC secondary-source data. Exports typically average between 3.2 and 3.4 million bpd, the vast majority shipped from southern terminals at Basrah. China and India together account for roughly two-thirds of those flows, making Iraq one of Asia’s most critical heavy crude suppliers.

That output is heavily concentrated in the southern fields feeding Basrah exports. Rumaila alone has nameplate capacity of around 1.4–1.5 million bpd and routinely produces well above 1.3 million bpd. West Qurna 1 produces roughly 600,000 bpd, with capacity closer to 650,000–670,000. West Qurna 2 is producing around 460,000 bpd, though development plans have targeted 750,000–800,000. Zubair’s design capacity is roughly 700,000 bpd. The Maysan complex contributes roughly 300,000–350,000 bpd.

Taken together, those fields account for the bulk of Iraq’s export engine. A 3 million bpd shut-in would effectively sideline most of the southern system and remove a significant share of medium and heavy sour barrels from global trade.

The obvious question is whether OPEC can replace those barrels.

And the answer depends on who you ask and how you define spare capacity. But even theoretically, it’s a stretch. In December last year, the EIA redefined the terms “maximum sustainable capacity” as the upper limit a producer could reach within a year if everything runs smoothly and “effective capacity” which is the amount of oil that could be realistically brought online within 90 days and sustained without damaging fields or infrastructure.

Let the terms “90 days” and “with a year” sink in for a moment.

For the sake of exactness, the EIA defines spare capacity using the second of those terms.

So, does OPEC really have the spare capacity to meaningful fill the gap right now?

Under that 90-day definition, OPEC’s effective spare capacity is generally estimated in the range of roughly 3 to 4 million barrels per day. And almost all of it sits in just two countries: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia accounts for roughly 2 million barrels per day of that cushion. The UAE contributes somewhere around 0.8 to 1.0 million barrels per day. The rest of OPEC’s members add relatively marginal volumes.

If Iraqi shut-ins approach 3 million barrels per day, you are no longer talking about dipping into spare capacity. You are talking about testing the outer boundary of it and would be almost entirely reliant on two producers ramping quickly, sustaining output, and pushing those barrels through the very same Strait of Hormuz that is currently under strain. And those spare capacity figures include everything that could take them 90 days to turn on.

OPEC could potentially turn on all its spare capacity, but it could take them months to do it. Mobilization is not instantaneous.

Just as importantly, crude oil quality matters. Iraqi exports are mostly comprised of medium and heavy sour grades. Refiners in China and India, which together take roughly two-thirds of Iraq’s exports, take about 2.1-2.5 million bpd—and they are largely configured for those heavier grades. Substituting lighter grades alters yields, diesel output, and refining margins. This is already playing out in today’s tightening heavy crude differentials.

And finally, even with the upstream issue resolved, the oil would still have to move.

Even if Saudi Arabia and the UAE open the taps, much of those exports would still need to transit the Strait. If traffic slows, if insurance costs spike, if tankers hesitate, the constraint shifts from upstream capacity to physical flow. Spare capacity in a field does not equal barrels on a ship.

And timing matters. The EIA’s definition allows up to 90 days to bring that oil online and sustain it. Ninety days is a long time in a market reacting in real time. A 3 million bpd disruption doesn’t give producers a comfortable ramp window. It forces a response under pressure.

So yes, OPEC has spare capacity on paper. But if Iraqi shut-ins approach 3 million bpd and linger, the discussion would quickly stop being about headline spare capacity and would instead be about deliverable barrels — in the right quality, moving through functioning shipping lanes. That is a much narrower margin of safety than the top-line numbers imply.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 17:40

Americans Are Plundering Their 401(k) Savings In "Record" Numbers

More Americans are tapping their retirement savings to deal with financial emergencies, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Last year, a record 6% of workers in 401(k) plans administered by Vanguard took hardship withdrawals, up from 4.8% in 2024 and about 2% before the pandemic. The figures point to a mixed financial picture: many Americans are doing well, but a growing share are under pressure.

At the same time, retirement balances have climbed alongside strong markets, and more workers are participating in 401(k) plans. As a result, those accounts are increasingly becoming a financial backstop when unexpected expenses arise.

Hardship withdrawals have now increased for six straight years. Part of the rise dates back to a 2018 change that made it easier to access retirement funds by removing the requirement that workers take a 401(k) loan before requesting a hardship distribution. Vanguard administers plans for nearly five million participants.

The most common reasons for withdrawals last year were avoiding foreclosure or eviction and covering medical costs. The median amount taken out was $1,900.

Financial strain is also showing up in other ways. More Americans are falling behind on some types of debt, including mortgages, while credit-counseling groups report that the average income of people seeking help has increased. Even so, unemployment remains relatively low and consumer spending has stayed resilient.

Policy changes have also expanded the situations where hardship withdrawals are allowed. A 2022 law gave employers the option to permit withdrawals for victims of domestic abuse and people impacted by federally declared disasters. It also allows workers to withdraw up to $1,000 penalty-free for an emergency once every three years, with the option to access funds again sooner if the money is repaid.

Another driver is the spread of automatic enrollment. As more employers automatically place workers into retirement plans unless they opt out, more people now have savings available to draw from during emergencies.

The Journal writes that among about 1,300 employer plans Vanguard administers, 61% automatically enrolled new hires in 2025, up from 34% in 2013.

Workers who take hardship withdrawals from traditional accounts typically owe income tax and may face a 10% penalty if they are under 59½.

Despite the rise in withdrawals, overall retirement savings remain strong. The average 401(k) balance rose 13% in 2025 to a record $167,970.

Participation is also growing. A record 45% of workers increased their savings rate in 2025, matching the share that did so the year before, largely through automatic escalation programs.

“People are saving more, remaining invested, and being automatically rebalanced in a professional way,” said David Stinnett, head of strategic retirement consulting at Vanguard.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 17:20

House Votes Down Iran War Powers Measure, Soon On Heels Of Similar Senate Res. Defeat

Update(1714ET): So essentially Congress is not even going to have a robust War Powers debate as war in Iran and the Gulf keeps escalating:

The House on Thursday rejected an effort to advance legislation that would restrict President Trump from using further military action in Iran.

The failed vote amounts to an endorsement of Trump's military campaign in Iran from Congress, which has the constitutional authority to declare war.

• The 212-219 vote [largely on partisan lines] comes one day after the Senate rejected a similar measure, mainly along party lines.

* * *

It's been wild ride in crude over the past few days with Brent crude futures were capped near $84 a barrel on Tuesday afternoon before sliding down to the $81 level late Wednesday afternoon, only to surge back up to $84 this morning...

...as shipping industry insiders and Wall Street analysts await exact details on the Trump administration's proposal to keep tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The critical maritime chokepoint remains paralyzed, raising the risk of an energy shock in parts of the world that rely heavily on those flows, particularly in Asia.

President Trump wrote in a Truth Social post that the U.S. will provide insurance for "ALL Maritime Trade" through the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and will provide Navy escorts "if necessary."

The shutdown is already hitting global energy flows:

• QatarEnergy Declares Force Majeure As One-Fifth Of Global LNG Supply Goes Dark

• Oil Spikes To Session High As Iraq Starts Shutting Output At Massive Oil Field

Now comes the hard part, with the shipping industry and Wall Street analysts all asking the same question: how will every tanker transiting the Arabian Sea through the Gulf of Oman, into the Strait, and onward to the Persian Gulf be protected by U.S. or allied air or naval forces? 

"Nothing is sure and we need immediate clarity," said Khalid Hashim, managing director of Precious Shipping Pcl, a Thai firm that owns bulk carriers.

Hashim said, "Lives are at risk, cargoes are at risk, ships are at risk. We need immediate cover that protects us from all this."

While some shipowners say they're mulling over joining escorted convoys, many remain very cautious, noting that escorts do not eliminate the risk of the IRGC's asymmetric warfare, such as the use of drones. 

Analysts also question whether the Trump administration has done enough planning to make the proposal bulletproof in the near term. Overall, the market sees Trump's plan as a temporary fix to restart flows in the Strait, with Brent crude futures capped at $84 since the announcement and currently trading around $81. 

UBS analyst Benjamin Benson, "Improved risk sentiment following US President Trump's announcement on maritime insurance and US Navy security support further aided the recovery in prices." 

Current activity in the Strait of Hormuz:

Tanker traffic through Strait of Hormuz down by 90%

Analysis of vessel activity indicates tanker transits are now around 90% lower than last week. Matt Wright, Principal Freight Analyst at Kpler, explains: "Unlike several other vessel segments where movements have largely… pic.twitter.com/JIhFoAkQKO

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) March 4, 2026

"The core thing shipowners are thinking about is the real risk of loss," said Karnan Thirupathy, partner at Kennedys Law LLP, who specializes in commodities and shipping. "No one goes into the trade if the risk of loss is simply too high."

RBC Capital Markets LLC analysts noted, "President Trump's comments about insurance and tanker escorts caused a pullback in oil prices, we question how much planning has been done on the insurance backstop thus far and think there could be a number of challenges in executing this plan quickly." 

Wall Street Journal noted by late afternoon that the Trump administration was in talks with one major insurance broker about how to get ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz: 

A team from insurance broker Marsh Risk met with administration officials Tuesday and offered to help the U.S. government create an insurance mechanism that could lower shipping risk and make insuring ships more affordable, said Marcus Baker, the firm's global head of marine, cargo and logistics. Energy prices have soared since Iran warned it could start attacking ships in the strategic waterway, slowing oil shipping to a standstill.

"Providing protection for all tankers operating in areas currently threatened by Iran is unrealistic as this would require a very high number of warships and other military assets," Bimco security analyst Jakob Larsen noted. 

Let's remind readers that the U.S. and its allies had a difficult time securing the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, where Houthi rebels repeatedly launched missiles and drones at commercial ships linked to the U.S. and Israel. That certaintly matters now. It also comes as the U.S. and its allies are burning through significant volumes of air-delivered munitions in Operation Epic Fury.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 17:13