CIA Official Arrested Abroad For Leaking Secret Documents On Israeli Military Plans

Nearly a month ago highly classified US intelligence detailing Israeli plans for a retaliation attack against Iran appeared online. The pair of documents were prepared by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, and the leak immediately kicked off a massive federal investigation and hunt for the leaker.

On Wednesday federal prosecutors have revealed an arrest, with the NY Times reporting that "The man, Asif W. Rahman, was indicted last week in federal court in Virginia with two counts of willful retention and transmission of national defense information." He had worked for the US government overseas, and is being charged with two counts of violating the Espionage Act. The Times has followed with an update identifying him as a CIA official.

Rahman was apprehended by the FBI in Cambodia on Tuesday, and has been brought to federal court in Guam where he'll get charged in the case.

"Court documents said Mr. Rahman held a top secret security clearance with access to sensitive compartmentalized information, which is typical for many C.I.A. employees who handle classified materials.," the Times continues.

It also remains unclear what he was doing in Cambodia at the time of this arrest - whether on the run or perhaps merely traveling abroad, or possibly for work.

The FBI previously said it was "working closely with our partners in the Department of Defense and intelligence community" to track down the leaker. From the start, federal investigators made clear that they believed it to be the result of an intelligence insider, and not the result of a foreign hacking operation.

Image source: National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency

More than a week after the leaks first appeared Israeli media indicated that national decision-makers had delayed the timing of the planned retaliatory attack on Iran due to the leak incident, given one of the docs detailed Israeli placements and movements of missiles and defensive assets.

"Israel is concerned the leak could help Iran predict certain patterns of attack," The Times had written. "It has been forced to develop an alternative plan, one that requires detailed war gaming before any order is given, The Times understands."

"The leak of the American documents delayed the attack due to the need to change certain strategies and components," an intelligence source described as having knowledge of Israeli deliberations said.

Additionally there appeared in the leaks confirmation of Israel's highly secretive nuclear weapons program, which on an official level it is not supposed to have.

Oh dear. Did someone at NGA leak Top Secret TALENT KEYHOLE FIVE EYES NO FOREIGN EYES intelligence about Israel's nuclear weapons...on Twitter? pic.twitter.com/3lyKWFCmUw

— Eric Garland (@ericgarland) October 20, 2024

The pair of documents were classified TOP SECRET, with both marked NOFORN - which is among the highest classifications - given it indicates the specific intelligence cannot be shared with allied foreign intelligence agencies. But markings indicated they could be shared only among "Five Eyes" allies: Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The investigation to find the leaker focused heavily on these Five Eyes allies, but the NY Times report is saying that the leak occurred in-house, via a US government employee of the Central Intelligence Agency.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/13/2024 - 09:10

"That's Bait..." Chumming The Media Waters Doesn't Work Like It Used To

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, 'n Guns blog,

There’s a great moment in Mad Max: Fury Road where they roll up to a naked woman chained to a tower and Max utters one of his, like, fourteen lines in the movie, “That’s bait.”

This is a metaphor for literally the entire media landscape in the age of social media.

Since Trump’s victory last Tuesday the Usual Suspects have chummed the waters with every possible bad idea to dishearten and undermine that victory. It’s all bait.

We weren’t 24 hours removed from Kamala Harris’ concession speech, a carbon copy of the one Hillary Clinton gave in 2016, where she said, “Fight” 20 times, before the first big piece of red meat was thrown down in front of libertarians to virtue signal over… Ending the Fed.

FOMC Chair Jerome Powell was forced to field a question during the post-meeting presser about stepping down if asked to by President-Elect Trump.

Powell “closed the fucking door” on that with one word, “No.”

At which point everyone was shocked, shocked I say!, to find out that the Fed Chair cannot be removed because the President didn’t like him. The same goes for Supreme Court justices, for example. This is politics folks, not philosophy. I’m not endorsing this situation but I am pointing out that those who have been parroting “End the Fed” since Ron Paul ran in 2008 should have known this.

So, given this background, one has to conclude it’s the dirtiest of dirty politics designed to create divisions within the MAGA crowd at a time when we should be coming together on the right issues, staffing the new administration, discussing which departments to cut, how to finance the debt.

In other words, we should be setting the tempo, rather than responding to it by those most vulnerable to a US government and Federal Reserve in lock-step to defend US sovereignty.

For more than a year I told you there would be two big targets for the Democrats in this election cycle, Jerome Powell and Elon Musk.

Powell is Public Enemy #1 over his aggressively tight monetary policy which all Austrians should be rejoicing over rather than concocting ever more lurid arguments about ‘stealth QE.’ For systemic thinkers, having a one-level flow chart on something as important and germane as monetary policy is, frankly, a pretty lazy and pathetic look.

Musk has now challenged Powell for the top spot for exclusion from Davos’ Happy Holidays Card List because of how Twitter and Starlink have thrown sand in the gears of their narrative generation engine, as I wrote about last week.

Going back to Powell, since the March 2023 banking crisis, which he fomented for political reasons and raised interest rates in the middle of, just to make sure everyone who mattered got the fucking memo, I eventually stopped being sick of Elizabeth Warren’s HR nanny routine from atop the Senate Banking Committee and simply started laughing at her.

She issued stern letters demanding the Fed lower interest rates at seemingly every FOMC meeting, trying to gin up controversy over the Fed. And it wasn’t to give anyone relief, or for the children, it was to help Democrats win the election and loosen the death grip Powell’s ‘higher for longer’ policy had on European capital markets.

But thanks to this silly question by a junior staffer at Politico, now the ‘Woke Left’ and the ‘Woke Right’ are having their fee-fees stroked by the remnants of the old banking cartels they both believe they are fighting here.

If it wasn’t so gods-damned important I’d be chuckling in Collapsitarian.

A Buffett at the Waffle House

Next up was the bait thrown at trad conservatives over people like Mike Pompeo and Nikki Haley. The biggest tell that Trump was likely to win in a landslide was the intelligence blob floating the rumor weeks ago that Trump still liked Pompeo and that Big Mike was sniffing around as either Secretary of State or Defense.

That’s chum, folks. And Trump put the hammer down on it after a couple of days letting it percolate. He should have quashed it sooner. But, who am I to give the Master of the Overton Window advice on such matters?

https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1855393067517559198

Haley was also a non-starter. He hates her. Her career now starts and ends every day with, “More Coffee?” and “Scattered, Smothered, and Chunked? Got it, hunny.”

In fact, you know Trump hates Marco Rubio as much as he does Haley because I believe the rumor about him becoming Secretary of State.

How else are you going to get RINO “Little Marco” and his really big Manila Envelope Quotient (MEQ) out of the Senate and replaced by someone who will actually work with Trump, rather than against him on the big legislation that needs to get passed in 2025?

Promote him, keep him on a short leash about reforming Foggy Bottom, and let him grandstand on CHY-Na. And if he doesn’t do what’s asked of him? “You’re Fired!”

And if I’m wrong and Rubio is just more Neocon bait, then Masal Tov! Oi vey.

That rumor about Mike Rogers to head the CIA and everything else you’ve seen… all bait. All lame attempts to flood the zone with bad information and drive wedges between Trump’s biggest supporters and him.

If you can’t pick up on crude attempts at British divide and rule at this stage of the game, maybe you just suck at the game.

It took the leaking of a secret ballot organized by outgoing Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to finally wake people up to the depths to which the bureaucratic immune system is fighting back against the chemotherapy Trump’s win represents.

If Marjorie Taylor Greene helps stop John Cornyn from becoming our leader in the Senate, I’ll take back most of the mean things I’ve said about her.

Most of them.

Schadenfreude in Berlin

Trump’s win caused a political earthquake in Berlin as the German government collapsed after Chancellor Olaf Scholz tried to meet a cash call to his creditors on Ukraine. FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner refused to approve another 6 billion euros to Ukraine. But Germany is out of money this fiscal year and it needed to go to the Bundestag. So Scholz fired him and Lindner pulled the FDP out of the coalition.

Now the situation in Germany is in the kind of flux we usually only see in places being color revolution’d.

They are so desperate to hold onto power we’re now being regaled with the latest fantasy of the “Saxony Separatists,” all 3 of them, as the latest reason to ban Alternative for Germany (AfD) and keep them from participating in the upcoming snap elections.

Again, that’s bait for the German Boomers. Even if the ban doesn’t work, it will knock a couple of points off AfD’s national totals. But, they are just doing tactical retreats here. It’s not winning, it’s more trying to not lose immediately.

Because the cultural and demographic shift against this globalist insanity has already occurred.

We’re watching the old political order in Germany, held together previously by the iron fist of Angela “Stasi” Merkel, come apart at the seams. The idea that Germans would simply vote themselves out of existence because of their collective guilt was never really a starter.

At some point the German industrialist class would make their presence felt. Trump’s victory likely catalyzed this.

Davos’ whole project depended on using the generational imprint of everyone post-WWII to manufacture political realities at odds with the self-interests of those people. But that puts a time limit on the project. It had to happen before the generations that fought WWII and grew up in the rebuilding phase died off.

For example, for Germans it was their collective shame over Hitler. For Japan, it was the shame of being bombed by the Americans. For America it was stoking our self-reliance into self-righteousness.

As Howard Lutnick pointed out on CNBC a few months ago, we rebuilt these people through our dominance and allowing them to put tariffs on our goods to regenerate their local economies. Those tariffs are still in place and it’s time to remove them by negotiating much better deals for everyone.

But the demographic shift has happened. We saw it in the state elections in Germany this September, where AfD saw huge gains among the 18-29 year olds. The same thing has been happening in Greece in the aftermath of the German/EU strip-mining of the country after their multiple sovereign debt crises.

In the US the kids are moving away from the libertine Boomers. Even the Millennials are finally fulfilling their desires for authenticity, after now surviving three national bankruptcies during their lifetimes — Y2K, Lehman Bros. and COVID-19.

This allowed for Gen-X to finally come into their own and deliver the result the world needed.

So, please folks. Take the wins. Jack out of the Twitter spew for a few days. They want you anxious and afraid. It’s all they have left. Because we just told them we don’t want what they are offering or need what they’ve sold us.

Trust in the result you delivered just a little. This isn’t the same story as 2016.

Trust in media has not only collapsed, it’s now reached its terminal phase. We just broke The Wire, why on earth would we want to repair it by giving their crudity credibility?

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/13/2024 - 08:50

Core Consumer Prices Rise For 53rd Straight Month, Hit New Record High

Tl;dr: The inflation story is far from over... no matter what The Fed or The White House claims...

For the 53rd straight month, core consumer prices rose on a MoM basis in October with the YoY pace re-accelerating to +3.33%...

Source: Bloomberg

Services costs are starting to pick up again...

Source: Bloomberg

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, as it did in August and September.

• The shelter index increased 0.4 percent in October.

  • The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.4 percent and the index for rent rose 0.3 percent over the month.

  • The lodging away from home index rose 0.4 percent in October, after falling 1.9 percent in September.

• The medical care index increased 0.3 percent over the month after increasing 0.4 percent in September.

  • The index for physicians’ services increased 0.5 percent in October and the prescription drugs index rose 0.2 percent over the month.

• The used cars and trucks index rose 2.7 percent in October, after rising 0.3 percent in the previous month.

• The index for airline fares rose 3.2 percent over the month and the index for recreation increased 0.4 percent.

• Other indexes that increased in October include personal care and education.

• The index for apparel fell 1.5 percent in October, following a 1.1-percent increase the preceding month.

• The communication index decreased 0.6 percent over the month, as it did in September.

• The index for household furnishings and operations and the index for motor vehicle insurance also declined in October.

• The new vehicles index was unchanged over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.3 percent over the past 12 months.

• The shelter index increased 4.9 percent over the last year, accounting for over 65 percent of the total 12-month increase in the all items less food and energy index.

• Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+14.0 percent), medical care (+3.3 percent), education (+3.8 percent), and personal care (+2.5 percent).

The headline CPI rose 0.2% MoM (as expected) which reaccelerated the YoY rise to +2.6% (as expected)...

Source: Bloomberg

Goods deflation ended on a MoM basis...

Source: Bloomberg

While Goods prices are still in deflation, they are re-acclerating and Services inflation remains extremely elevated...

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, the much-watched (for a while) SuperCore (Services Ex-Shelter) CPI remains stubbornly high...

Source: Bloomberg

The deflationary pressures are easing...

Source: Bloomberg

On a short-term basis, it's energy's deflation that is doing God's work for Biden/Harris/Powell..

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, headline consumer prices are up 20.4% since Biden/Harris took over (that is almost three times the pace of price inflation that was seen under Trump's first term)...

Source: Bloomberg

Is a resurgence in CPI already baked in the cake (as global money supply has been resurgent)?

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, could we really replay the '70s once again?

Source: Bloomberg

Will that really be Powell's legacy? Or will the timing of this resurgence in inflation be perfectly timed to coincide with Trump's election victory... and offer a perfect patsy for who is to blame?

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/13/2024 - 08:40

McMaken: Congress Should Fire Jerome Powell

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

There were a few seemingly tense moments at the FOMC press conference on Thursday when two reporters asked Jerome Powell about the prospect of Donald Trump asking Powell to resign.

The first reporter asked “would you resign if asked to do so by Donald Trump?”

To this, Powell responded with a resounding “no” followed by silence.

A few moments later, Powell was asked by another reporter if it was lawful for Trump to either remove or “demote”—that is, remove Powell as chairman, but leave him on the Board of Governors—Powell.

To this, Powell responded with a forceful “not permitted under the law.” 

Apparently, Powell wished to leave no ambiguity whatsoever about this position that he cannot be removed or demoted by a sitting president. 

It would agree that the spirit of the law here is that a president not be able to remove a  Fed chairman, except for some kind of misconduct. But, ambiguity remains. Even Alan Blinder, a proponent of the myth of “Fed independence,” admits that in the world of political reality, Trump could potentially remove Powell:

Experts who spoke to ABC News acknowledged that some legal ambiguity looms over what type of conduct warrants sufficient cause for removal, but they said a policy dispute is unlikely to meet such a standard. Still, Trump could attempt to push out Powell and test how courts interpret the law, experts added, noting that the case could end up with the conservative-majority Supreme Court.

“Trump could try and he might try,” Alan Blinder, a professor of economics at Princeton University and former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve. “It’s very unlikely that he has that authority, but if he takes this to the Supreme Court, I don’t know what to think of the Supreme Court.”

Instead, Trump could leave Powell in his position on the Fed’s 7-member Board of Governors but demote him from his role as chair, Blinder said.

“That’s a subtle question that has never been tested,” Blinder said, acknowledging a lack of clarity about whether it would be allowed. “We can’t answer that quite as definitively.”

In any case, Trump would likely have to expend some serious political capital if he wants to remove Powell via presidential power. 

Yet, Powell’s defiance ought to provoke us to ask why wealthy, pampered, out-of-touch technocrats like Jerome Powell get to act like their removal constitutes some sort of transgression. Central bankers are just bureaucrats, and their removal ought to be regarded with no more trepidation than the removal of an undersecretary of agriculture. 

Congress Should Fire Powell, and Not Stop There

Regardless of what Trump’s legal powers may be, it is clear that Congress has the power to remove Powell, just as Congress has the power to abolish the central bank altogether. 

The Congress ought to abolish the Fed entirely, of course, but if members lack the stomach for that heroic act, Congress can begin with amending the Federal Reserve Act to make it clear that the chairman of the Fed is not a Holy Person, untouchable by the mere mortals who are actually elected to run the federal government. There are many ways Congress could approach this issue. For example, Congress could rewrite the law to allow Congress to remove the Fed chairman with a majority vote in either house. It doesn’t really matter, so long as central bankers get the message that they’re not special. 

While Congress is at it, it could make a few other crucial changes as well. Congress should prohibit the Fed from buying any assets of any kind. This would end the Fed’s habit of buying up mortgage-backed securities and government securities to prop up the banker class and Powell’s buddies—i.e., Janet Yellen—at the Treasury. It would also end the Fed’s ability to manipulate interest rates since the Fed’s main tool here is its “open market operations.”

A second key change that is very necessary is removing the Fed’s so called “dual mandate.” As the Fed likes to often mention, the Fed has a dual mandate of both “stable prices” and “maximum employment.” Congress should immediately abolish the mandate for “maximum employment” because the only purpose this has ever served has been as an excuse for the central bank to inflate the money supply. As is abundantly clear from Fed press conferences and publications, the Fed routinely justifies its dovish policy in terms of fulfilling its mandate to maximize inflation. That is, the Fed often says something to the effect of “we’re embracing easy-money policy because our dual mandate to maximize employment says we have to.” Congress should just delete the mandate. 

(By the way, the Fed actually has a third mandate. It’s to ensure “moderate long-term interest rates.” Getting rid of the Fed’s power to purchase assets probably nullifies this mandate in any case, but Congress might as well remove any doubt and totally prohibit the Fed from manipulating interest rates of any kind.)

Fed Independence Has Never Been Used for Good Things

Of course, if Congress were to attempt any of this, Fed simps in the media and in Congress will try to talk about how such things are unprecedented and we must respect “Fed independence.” Media stories in the Fed often claim that attempts by elected officials to rein in Fed technocrats violate “long-standing norms” that respect Fed independence. 

This is a fantasy version of history. There is not now, and there has never been, any such thing as Fed independence because the Fed always willingly helps the regime get what it wants. 

Early on, Fed independence didn’t even exist in theory, and was explicitly limited in law. Prior to 1935, the Comptroller of the Currency and the Secretary of the Treasury sat on the Fed’s Board, thus ensuring a direct line from the White House to the Fed. 

In 1933, of course, Franklin Roosevelt issued an executive order abolishing the gold standard and ordering the Fed to turn over all its gold to the Treasury. So much for “Fed independence” under the Left’s favorite twentieth-century president. 

Even after 1935, it was understood that the Fed would always assist the Treasury with funding whenever necessary. This again became obvious during the Second World War when the Fed essentially helped launder funds for the war effort. The Fed agreed in 1942 to peg interest rates on government securities. The Fed also engaged in a variety of price control measures and regulations designed to assist the White House. 

Only since the Monetary Accord of 1951 has there been a de jure nod to giving the Fed autonomy on policy. The Fed has never used any of this alleged autonomy to do anything good, however. We’ve seen this proven countless times since the Fed has always gladly done its part to ensure the Treasury gets what it wants. From the Fed’s efforts to finance federal deficits in the 1970s, to the Plaza Accord in 1985, and to the flood of easy money since 2008, the Fed has never used its so-called independence to actually rein in federal profligacy. 

What Matters to the Fed Is Protecting the Banking Class

Central bankers have never cared about Fed independence as a way of limiting state power.

According to its own historical narrative, the Fed has now allegedly been “autonomous” for sixty years or more. Has inflation and federal spending been more restrained during that time? Obviously not.

The Fed has always and everywhere been happy to enrich the state, regardless of whatever levels of self-governance it might achieve. 

The real reason the Fed wants more independence is so the Fed can also more easily enrich the banker class while also making the Treasury happy.  That is, the banking cartel that works hand in glove with the Fed cares deeply about having control over who gets onto the Board of Governors and who gets to be chairman. The elite bankers are perfectly willing to effectively serve the Treasury so long as the cartel gets to have its own people in charge. This is how the banker class ensures that its monopolistic powers are protected, the competition is crushed, and the bailouts are guaranteed. 

If the Fed pushes back against the elected government, it’s only if the priorities of the elected government conflict with the Fed’s priority, which is serving the interests of the banker class. Experience makes it abundantly clear that central bankers are fine with endless price inflation. But, the Fed wants to inflate in a way that most suits the Fed and the banking cartel. That’s why Powell and the Fed are so opposed to the idea of being removed from office. There is no higher principle here. There is only power. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/13/2024 - 06:30

DNA-Testing Company Terminates 40 Percent Of Its Employees

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Genetic-testing company 23andMe is laying off hundreds of workers as part of cost-reduction measures, a decision taken amid declining revenues.

A saliva-collection kit for DNA testing in Washington on Dec. 19, 2018. Eric Baradat/AFP via Getty Images

“The company is reducing its overall headcount by over 200 employees, representing approximately 40 percent of the workforce,” 23andMe said in a Nov. 11 statement. “The business restructuring is expected to substantially reduce operating expenses and result in annualized cost savings of more than $35 million. The company expects to incur up to $12 million in costs and expenses primarily related to one-time severance, transition, and termination-related costs.”

23andMe is also “actively exploring” options to maximize the value of its therapeutics programs through asset sales, licensing agreements, and other transactions. While the corporation considers these measures, it intends to wind down ongoing clinical trials.

One of the company’s therapeutic programs uses an antibody to restore the immune system’s ability to kill cancer cells. Another program involves the use of an antibody that aims to restore anti-tumor immunity. The company is also involved in multiple other preclinical immunology and inflammation programs.

“We are taking these difficult but necessary actions as we restructure 23andMe and focus on the long-term success of our core consumer business and research partnerships,” said Anne Wojcicki, 23andMe CEO and co-founder. “We are fully committed to supporting the employees impacted by this transition.”

The company will continue to “pursue strategic opportunities” with regard to its clinical and preclinical stage programs, she said.

23andMe is one of the largest companies in the world that offers direct-to-customer genetic testing services. Founded in 2006, the business gained huge traction as many people were attracted to the idea of knowing more about their ancestry, health, and other things. The company went public in 2021.

The company has struggled financially over the past years and has seen its shares collapse in value. In the 15 quarters since the fourth quarter of 2020, 23andMe has reported positive net income in only one quarter.

For fiscal year 2024, 23andMe saw revenues of $220 million, down from $299 million from the previous fiscal year, a decline of 27 percent. The business attributed the fall to lower revenues from research services and consumer services.

The company suffered a net loss of $667 million for fiscal year 2024, more than double the $312 million loss from the previous fiscal year.

In the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, revenues dropped by 34 percent year over year. Net loss scaled down to $69 million from $105 million.

Shares of 23andMe have crashed this year, declining by more than 74 percent. Since late November 2020, shares have lost more than 97 percent of their value.

Share Acquisition Attempts

23andMe has also seen management-level issues in recent months over share acquisition efforts from its CEO. In April, it was revealed that Wojcicki intended to buy all outstanding shares of the company that she did not own.

At the time, Wojcicki owned more than 20 percent of the total outstanding shares, which gave her 49 percent voting power. 23andMe’s Special Committee said it would “carefully review” the offer when available.

Wojcicki submitted a preliminary, conditional, and nonbinding proposal in late July. In August, the Special Committee sent a letter to Wojcicki, dismissing the offer.

“We are disappointed with the proposal for multiple reasons, including because it provides no premium to the closing price per share on Wednesday, July 31, it lacks committed financing, and it is conditional in nature,” the committee said.

“Accordingly, we view your proposal as insufficient and not in the best interest of the non-affiliated shareholders. Therefore, we are not prepared to move forward under the terms provided.”

In mid-September, all seven independent directors of 23andMe’s board resigned from their posts. They pointed out that Wojcicki failed to submit “a fully financed, fully diligenced, actionable proposal” that would be beneficial to shareholders even after months of work.

Since there had been no “notable progress” on the matter, the directors concluded that no beneficial proposal would be forthcoming.

“It is also clear that we differ on the strategic direction for the company going forward. Because of that difference and because of your concentrated voting power, we believe that it is in the best interests of the company’s shareholders that we resign from the board rather than have a protracted and distracting difference of view with you as to the direction of the company,” they wrote.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/13/2024 - 05:45

OPEC Slashes Oil Demand Growth Estimate Again (For The 4th Straight Month)

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

• OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 and 2025 due to weaker demand revisions in China and other Asian markets.

• This marks the fourth consecutive month of downward revisions by OPEC, reflecting concerns about a slowdown in China's economic growth.

• OPEC's reduced demand forecast may impact its production cut decisions and lead to a weaker oil market outlook.

For a fourth consecutive month, OPEC slashed on Tuesday its estimate of global oil demand growth for both this year and next, citing downward revisions in China and other Asian markets after seeing actual consumption data year to date.

OPEC now expects global oil demand to grow by 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, down by 107,000 bpd from last month’s assessment, the cartel said in its closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report.

Total world oil demand is anticipated to reach 104.0 million bpd in 2024, bolstered by strong transportation fuel demand and ongoing healthy economic growth, particularly in a number of non-OECD countries, said OPEC.

However, the organization made today its fourth downward adjustment of demand growth estimates for the world and China for the fourth consecutive month.

OPEC’s latest downward revision of demand forecasts follows its decision from earlier this month to delay the beginning of the reversal of the production cuts to January 2025 from December 2024.

The downward revision of global demand growth forecasts reflected yet another reduction in OPEC’s expectations of Chinese oil demand growth.

OPEC cut China’s demand growth forecast to 450,000 bpd this year, down from 580,000 bpd growth expected last month. The assessment of Chinese oil demand growth in 2025 was also cut by around 100,000 bpd and OPEC now sees Chinese demand growing by just 310,000 bpd in 2025, down from a previous projection of 410,000 bpd growth.

“The report maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2024, supported by the strong fundamentals of the industrial and export sectors, as well as the central government's ability to implement policy measures to tackle challenges in other areas, including the property sector and sluggish consumer demand,” OPEC said, referring to China’s near-term economic and oil demand prospects.

The cartel also lowered by 103,000 bpd its projection of global oil demand growth for 2025 and now expects it at 1.54 million bpd year-over-year, down from 1.64 million bpd growth projected in the October report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/13/2024 - 05:00

Supreme Court Denies Mark Meadows's Request In 2020 Election Interference Prosecution

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Supreme Court on Nov. 12 turned away former Trump White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows’s request to transfer his election interference case from a Georgia state court to federal court.

Then-White House chief of staff Mark Meadows in the East Room of the White House in Washington, on Sept. 23, 2020. Joshua Roberts/Getty Images

The justices issued the court’s new unsigned order without explaining why, as is its custom when rejecting petitions.

Meadows filed his petition with the Supreme Court on July 26, arguing that the case should be heard in federal court because he was performing his duties as a federal officer when he disputed election results.

Meadows was indicted by a state grand jury in Fulton County, Georgia, in August 2023, over his role in President Donald Trump’s challenge to the 2020 presidential election results in Georgia, a state he ultimately lost in that election.

Meadows was accused of violating the Georgia RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations) Act during the period from Nov. 4, 2020, which is the day after that year’s presidential election, to Sept. 15, 2022, for his allegedly illegal efforts to contest the presidential results in the state.

He argued that the case should be heard in federal court because, “for nearly two centuries, Congress has provided a federal forum for federal officers facing criminal charges brought by state and local officials,” according to the petition.

“Over time, Congress has consistently expanded access to federal forums for federal officers invoking federal defenses,” he argued.

A federal district court in Georgia refused to stay the prosecution in September 2023.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit ruled against Meadows in December 2023, allowing the prosecution in Fulton County to proceed.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/12/2024 - 23:30

Fired FEMA Supervisor Claims Avoiding Trump Homes Was A Widespread Practice Due To 'Political Hostility'

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) supervisor accused of directing workers to skip hurricane-ravaged homes in Florida with Trump signs, claimed in an interview Monday that the policy was widespread and that she was being scapegoated.

Marn’i Washington was fired on Saturday after whistleblowers told the Daily Wire that at least 20 homes with Trump signs or flags were passed over at the end of October into November due to the guidance, depriving them of the opportunity to qualify for FEMA assistance. She had worked for the agency since 2019.

According to internal FEMA messages obtained by the Daily Wire, Washington directed workers to “avoid homes advertising Trump” as they canvassed Lake Placid, Florida looking for residents who could qualify for federal aid.

This happened in Highlands County, “a deep-red area located in south central Florida that backed Trump by 70 percent on Tuesday,” the Daily Wire reported. The area was  ravaged by tornadoes, torrential wind, rain, and flooding after Milton made landfall at Siesta Key on October 9 as a category 3 hurricane.

Washington’s directive was one among multiple “best practices” the agency recommended, along with “practice de-escalation and preventative measures,” “bring a towel with you tomorrow in the field” and take “frequent breaks and drink water.”

During an interview with YouTube podcaster Roland Martin Monday, Washington,39, explained that she had just been following FEMA’s policy of avoiding “politically hostile” homes. She said her supervisor had approved the message, explaining: “FEMA preaches avoidance first, and then de-escalation. This is not isolated. This is a colossal event of avoidance.”

“Not just in the state of Florida. You will find avoidance in the Carolinas,” said Washington, adding that the incident reports would substantiate that FEMA workers were being met with “hostility” at homes with Trump Campaign signs.

“If you look at the record, there is what we call a community trend, and it just so happened that the political hostility that was encountered by my team—and I was on two different teams during this deployment—they just so happened to have the Trump Campaign signage,” Washington asserted.

“Senior leadership will lie to you and tell you that they do not know, but if you ask the crew leads and specialists what they’re experiencing in the field, they will tell you,” she continued. “Demand for FEMA to give you those incident reports, they will substantiate what is happening to us in the field.”

“FEMA’s very well aware of the incidents that take place, not just with my crew, but with all the crews in the states,” Washington added.

The embattled former FEMA worker claimed that she knew of houses in the past had also been marked “politically hostile” when they had Harris-Walz signs or no political signs at all.

“We omitted these homes for safety precautions, not because of political play,” she insisted.

“If you greet any of our team members with hostility or aggression, we will deescalate and disengage and move on,” she said. “We cannot take the risk and deal with that type of behavior.”

Washington told Martin that she was fired from her job with a private real estate firm in the wake of the controversy, and had to move from her home due to threats.

A former FEMA official told the New York Post, however, that the policy of “openly” avoiding Trump-supporting houses had “been practiced by agency workers for years,” and suggested that the practice had noting to do with perceived “hostility.”

The ex-FEMA source said current employees told him that disaster assistance teams skip openly Trump-supporting houses in the name of DEI.

The unofficial policy is to “prioritize the most under resourced, marginalized communities first,” the source said.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has launched an investigation into the practice, calling it  “blatant weaponization of government by partisan activists in the federal bureaucracy is yet another reason why the Biden-Harris administration is in its final days” in a statement Friday.

“At my direction, the Division of Emergency Management is launching an investigation into the federal government’s targeted discrimination of Floridians who support Donald Trump,” DeSantis said. “New leadership is on the way in DC, and I’m optimistic that these partisan bureaucrats will be fired.”

The House Oversight Committee meanwhile launched an investigation into FEMA on Friday and sent a letter to Criswell requesting she testify at a hearing to answer questions about the agency’s response to hurricanes Helene and Milton.

Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said on X Tuesday that the Senate Homeland Security Committee also needs to investigate the matter.

“The Homeland Security Committee needs to launch an immediate investigation and call this individual to testify. Under oath. In public,” Hawley said.

With Republicans retaking the Senate, Homeland Security Committee Ranking Member Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is line to take the HSGAC gavel early next year.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/12/2024 - 21:00

Lame Duck Commander-in-Chief Suggests Bodily Harm To Journalist Asking Tough Question

Earlier in the day Tuesday Biden's special envoy to the Middle East Amos Hochstein told reporters that he is working diligently on achieving a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. He expressed that this could be achieved soon and that the White House believes that "there is a shot" to secure a peace deal.

However, within hours after, President Biden contradicted him - in so many words - by shooting back angrily at a journalist who asked whether a deal related to Gaza or Lebanon is realistically achievable by the end of his term. The moment, which apparently Biden thought was not being filmed 'live' while sitting in the Oval Office is illustrative of just how "serious" Biden is about Middle East peace (...not very serious, considering his answer below).

Israeli White House correspondent for Israel's Channel 13 news Neria Kraus asked simply, "Do you think you can get a hostage deal by the end of your term?" His "joking" response was to essentially threaten her with bodily harm. This tells us everything we need to know about what Biden hopes to achieve during the rest of his lame-duck session. America's hostile and senile Commander-in-Chief is on full display here in this somewhat disturbing clip captured Tuesday...

Reporter: “Do you think you can get a hostage deal by the end of your term?”

Biden: “Do you think that you can get hit in the head by the camera behind you?”pic.twitter.com/rxhrQ8LQTK

— TheBlaze (@theblaze) November 12, 2024

The answer to the below is: Umm No...

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/12/2024 - 19:40

Waste Of The Day: Million-Dollar Cheating-Ring At Houston Schools

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: Five people, including three Houston school employees, were indicted in October for allegedly running a million-dollar cheating ring that allowed over 200 educators to falsify their teaching certifications.

The three Houston employees collectively earned $1.3 million in taxpayer-funded salary between 2017 and 2023, according to data obtained by OpenTheBooks.com.

Two employees from the privately-owned Houston Training and Education Center were charged, but their salaries are not subject to federal disclosure.

Key facts: Vincent Grayson, the boys’ basketball coach at Booker T. Washington High School, allegedly organized the scheme. Aspiring teachers would pay Grayson $2,500 to guarantee a passing grade on their certification exam, according to an investigation by Attorney General Ken Paxton’s Criminal Investigations Division.

The teachers would show up to the testing center, sign in, and leave immediately. Nicholas Newton, an assistant principal at Booker T. Washington, would then show up and take the test for them, prosecutors claim.

The results were reportedly upheld by Tywana Gilford Mason and Darian Nikole Wilhite, two test proctors who allegedly received a 20% cut of the money.

LaShonda Roberts, assistant principal at Yates High School, allegedly helped recruit interested teachers.

Grayson made $400,750 in salary between 2017 and 2023, OpenTheBooks found. Newton earned $448,205 and Roberts made $409,455. All three were arrested and fired, and Houston has promised to take “swift action” against any teachers who used their services.

The group made over $1 million from the cheating scandal, Harris County District Attorney Kim Ogg said. She told CNN the full extent will “never be known,” but that at least 200 teachers took at least 400 fake tests.

Background: Houston Independent School District is the largest in Texas. As in many other nearby districts, a large pay gap exists between teachers and higher-level officials.

Superintendent Millard House earned $350,000 last year. But of the nearly 25,000 employees on the payroll, only 777 made six figures.

Search all federal, state and local government salaries and vendor spending with the AI search bot, Benjamin, at OpenTheBooks.com. 

Critical quote: “The most important thing to me is the ringleaders have been identified and are being rooted out of our home school district … and the fact that they held positions of power there, where they were held in esteem by the children, is the very worst part of this crime,” Ogg told CNN. “They didn’t deserve those kids’ respect and I think it leaves children feeling betrayed, not knowing who to trust.”

Summary: Aside from paying three potentially corrupt employees, Houston has spent an untold amount on salary for teachers that were never certified.

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/12/2024 - 19:15

"Warrior For Truth & Honesty" - Trump Names John Ratcliffe As CIA Director

President-elect Donald Trump has announced he has selected John Ratcliffe as director of the CIA.

“John Ratcliffe has always been a warrior for Truth and Honesty with the American Public,” Trump wrote in a message sent on the evening of Nov. 12, the latest in a flurry of Tuesday evening appointments.

“I look forward to John being the first person ever to serve in both of our Nation’s highest Intelligence positions.

He will be a fearless fighter for the Constitutional Rights of all Americans, while ensuring the Highest Levels of National Security, and PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH."

Ratcliffe, an attorney, served as director of national intelligence during the first Trump term.

As Nathan Worcester reports, via The Epoch Times, Ratcliffe was previously a Republican congressman from Texas and an anti-terrorism and national security chief for Eastern Texas.

Originally from Illinois, Ratcliffe earned his undergraduate degree from the University of Notre Dame before obtaining a law degree from Southern Methodist University.

He was later U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Texas and, from 2004 until 2012, mayor of Heath, Texas, a community in metro Dallas-Fort Worth.

While in Congress, he was a member of the House Intelligence Committee and the House Judiciary Committee.

During Trump’s first term, Ratcliffe made a name for himself as a staunch Trump loyalist.

Trump dropped an early attempt to elevate Ratcliffe to the director of national intelligence position in 2019.

But the following year, he renewed the effort, nominating him in May against the backdrop of the COVID-19 response.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/12/2024 - 18:50

Senate Majority Leader Candidates Agree To Trump's Demand For Recess Appointments

Authored by Jackson Richman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Candidates for Senate majority leader have said they will honor President-elect Donald Trump’s request to make appointments when the Senate is in recess.

(Left) Sens. Rick Scott (R-Fla.); (Center) John Thune (R-S.D.); (Right) John Cornyn (R-Texas). Andrew Harnik; Samuel Corum; Joshua Roberts/Getty Images

Ahead of the Senate leadership election on Nov. 13, Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.), John Cornyn (R-Texas), and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) have said they would support recess appointments.

“Any Republican Senator seeking the coveted LEADERSHIP position in the United States Senate must agree to Recess Appointments (in the Senate!), without which we will not be able to get people confirmed in a timely manner,” Trump said in a post on X. “Sometimes the votes can take two years, or more. This is what they did four years ago, and we cannot let it happen again. We need positions filled IMMEDIATELY!”

“100% agree,” Scott wrote on X, sharing Trump’s post. “I will do whatever it takes to get your nominations through as quickly as possible.”

Thune said in an X post: “We must act quickly and decisively to get the president’s nominees in place as soon as possible, & all options are on the table to make that happen, including recess appointments. We cannot let Schumer and Senate Dems block the will of the American people.”

“It is unacceptable for Senate Ds to blockade President @realDonaldTrump’s cabinet appointments,” Cornyn wrote on X. “If they do, we will stay in session, including weekends, until they relent. Additionally, the Constitution expressly confers the power on the President to make recess appointments.”

Recess appointments would allow the president to nominate executive and judicial personnel who would likely not receive Senate confirmation. Recess appointments have not happened in years due to the Senate meeting in pro forma sessions, meaning that although the Senate is meeting, it is only for a few minutes and therefore no legislative business is conducted.

The recess appointments clause of the U.S. Constitution states that “the President shall have Power to fill up all Vacancies that may happen during the Recess of the Senate, by granting Commissions which shall expire at the End of their next Session.”

In 2012, President Barack Obama made recess appointments, including appointing Richard Cordray to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

“The convening of periodic pro forma sessions in which no business is to be conducted does not have the legal effect of interrupting an intrasession recess otherwise long enough to qualify as a ‘Recess of the Senate’ under the Recess Appointments Clause,” the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel wrote at the time. “In this context, the President therefore has discretion to conclude that the Senate is unavailable to perform its advise-and-consent function and to exercise his power to make recess appointments.”

However, the Supreme Court unanimously ruled in 2014 that recess appointments cannot be made when the Senate is in a pro forma session.

Then-Justice Stephen Breyer wrote that “the Recess Appointments Clause is not designed to overcome serious institutional friction. It simply provides a subsidiary method for appointing officials when the Senate is away during a recess.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/12/2024 - 18:25

"Remember, Remember, The 5th Of November": Democrats Seem To Be Moving On From Democracy

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Democracy appears to be losing its appeal on the left. After campaigning on panic politics and predicting the imminent death of democracy, some on the left are now calling to burn the system down in light of Republicans not only taking both houses and the White House but Trump likely winning the popular vote.

Some seem to believe that what happened on November 5th is a license to become a modern version of Guy Fawkes

(“Remember, remember, the 5th of November; Gunpowder, treason and plot; I see no reason; Why gunpowder treason; Should ever be forgot”).

Protesters after the election called for tearing down the system as a whole, insisting that “Trump is not an individual. He’s a figurehead of a system that’s rotten.”

Even before the election, law professors and law deans called for a break from the Constitution. Those voices will likely be amplified after the massive electoral loss by Democrats.

Others are seeking to evade the results of the election to still bring Harris to power.  CNN’s Bakari Sellers wants to pressure Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor to resign and replace her with Harris. Former Harris aide Jamal Simmons wants Biden to resign to allow Harris to become president despite the vote of the majority.

It is an ironic twist after Democratic politicians and pundits repeated the mantra that, if we did not elect Harris, this might be our last election. After losing that election, democracy appears to be the problem. The majority of Americans voting for Trump have been called “anti-American” by Gov. Hochul. Other politicians and pundits have called them racists, misogynists, or weaklings seeking domination by strongmen and bullies.

The problem is now with young and minority voters.  Trump won white women voters by eight points at 53 percent. Harris actually fell slightly in the support of women overall. Conversely, roughly 43 percent of men voted for Harris. Forty percent of women under 30 voted for Trump. Even CNN reports that Trump’s performance was the best among young people (18-29 years old) in 20 years, Black voters in 48 years, and Hispanic voters in more than 50 years.

So, it appears that it is time to move on. The call for Biden to simply do what the public did not want to do (in making Harris president) is particularly ironic. Many voters were repulsed by the Democrats simply making Harris the nominee after all the primaries were over. This was the candidate who could not garner any appreciable votes in the prior presidential primaries before being made Vice President by Biden.

Now, the idea is that she would be elevated by the unilateral act of Biden.

Without a hint of self-awareness or recognition of the hypocrisy, Simmons insisted that this would “Fulfill [Biden’s] last promise — to be transitional.” Most people understood that to mean democratically transitional in opening the way for the election of new leadership. He did so after he was forced to step aside after winning every Democratic primary and tens of millions of votes.

Nevertheless, Simmons argued that “Democrats have to learn drama and transparency and doing things that the public wanna see is the time.” That would certainly be dramatic as well as anti-Democratic.  Yet, Simmons explained that “this is the moment for us to change the entire perspective of how Democrats operate.”

Indeed, it would. It would confirm that the Democratic Party is an effective oligarchy, the very thing that they just campaigned against.

Sellers is more modest.

He just wants Harris on the Supreme Court. At no point in history has anyone suggested that Harris was a leading legal mind. Nothing in her history suggests that she is a competent, let alone promising, candidate for the highest court.

Harris has previously suggested her support for possible radical changes on the Court, including court packing. She is also a decidedly anti-free speech figure in American politics.

None of that matters any more than the results of the election.

Harris would be put on the Court not due to any specific talents or skills but because it would be “consequential.” He wrapped up by saying “let Republicans go crazy, ape, I’m even mentioning that option.”

Others are not pushing Harris but are pushing Sotomayor to resign to allow for one of the fastest confirmations in history. Under this theory, a lame duck president would muscle through a confirmation before Trump could come into power.

Of course, that ignores the possibility that you could vacate the seat and then fall short in the sharply divided Senate. That includes the possible loss of senators who might balk at such a maneuver, including outgoing Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.

The one option that does not appear to be popular is to listen to the voters and actually return the Democratic Party back toward the center of our politics. The problem is now the voters themselves.

French Prime Minister Georges Clemenceau once famously insisted that “War is too important to be left to the generals.” The Democrats appear to be working on a new view that democracy is too important to be left to the voters.

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University. He is the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.” 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/12/2024 - 17:00

Trump 'Warrior Board' Would Purge 'Woke Generals' From US Military Leadership

After years of feminizing the US military through DEI initiatives, a new executive order under consideration by the Trump transition team would establish a "warrior board" of retired senior military personnel which would be granted the power to review three- and four-star officers and recommend any removals of those deemed unfit for leadership.

Army Gen. Mark Milley

A draft review of the Executive Order seen by the Wall Street Journal could fast-track generals and admirals found to be "lacking in requisite leadership qualities," given President-elect Donald Trump's past vow to fire "woke generals" who have promoted diversity among the ranks at the expense of military readiness.

As commander in chief, Trump can fire any officer at will, but an outside board whose members he appoints would bypass the Pentagon’s regular promotion system, signaling across the military that he intends to purge a number of generals and admirals. 

The draft order says it aims to establish a review that focuses “on leadership capability, strategic readiness, and commitment to military excellence.” The draft doesn’t specify what officers need to do or present to show if they meet those standards. The draft order originated with one of several outside policy groups collaborating with the transition team, and is one of numerous executive orders under review by Trump’s team, a transition official said. -WSJ

The board would be made up of retired generals and noncommissioned officers, who would send their recommendations to Trump. Those identified for removal would be retired at their current rank within 30 days. 

"The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail. He will deliver," said Karoline Leavitt, the Trump-Vance Transition spokeswoman, who declined to directly comment on the potential executive order.

Trump has called for the purging of those he views as failed generals - including those involved in the Biden administration's failed withdrawal from Afghanistan. Trump has previously said he would ask all generals involved in the withdrawal to resign by "noon on Inauguration day."

In October, Trump told an audience that he would create a task force to monitor the "woke generals" and to get rid of diversity training in the military.

One such woke general set for a purgin' could be Air Force Gen. CQ Brown, Jr. the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, according to two defense officials.

The EO would fit with plans by the Trump team for major reforms at the DoD, particularly when it comes to the size of the joint staff, according to the report.

"It’s gotten way too big," said one person with knowledge of the transition. "Trump also expects that many of the generals, the three- and four-star generals that have been under performing will basically be retired."

The draft executive order cites as precedent for the move Gen. George C. Marshall’s creation of a “plucking board” in 1940, led by retired general officers, to review the files of senior serving military officers and “remove from line promotion any officer for reasons deemed good and sufficient.” The goal of Marshall’s board was to make room to promote promising junior officers.

The president has the power to fire generals but rarely does so for political reasons. President Harry Truman fired Army Gen. Douglas MacArthur for publicly challenging the administration’s Asia security strategy. President Obama fired Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal as his Afghanistan commander after the military leader’s subordinates were quoted as criticizing the administration in a magazine article. -WSJ

The new order also puts Army Gen. Mark Milley in the crosshairs - however we don't think the board will be necessary for that purge. Milley notably told 'journalist' Bob Woodward that Trump was a "total fascist." 

Trump calls Gen. Mark Milley “a stupid person” and Gen. John Kelly “one of the dumbest people” he's ever met.

This is how Donald Trump talks about people who are more loyal to the United States of America than they are to him. pic.twitter.com/OS5vtMrQ8C

— Republican Voters Against Trump (@AccountableGOP) August 26, 2024

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/12/2024 - 16:40

Uniparty Establishment War On MAHA Heats Up

Authored by Brian Robertson via American Greatness,

“Trump really could empower RFK Jr. to wreck public health” proclaims the headline in Vox.

“RFK Jr. Wants to Reshape US Health Policy. Good Luck With That” mocks a banner in Wired.

Likewise, the Wall Street Journal joined the frenzy, noting that “industry, doctors, and their supporters in Congress probably will resist Kennedy’s unconventional health ideas.”

The alarmist reporting exposes the strategy to discredit Kennedy, claiming he’s a “conspiracy theorist and vaccine skeptic” who supports “dubious and unproven therapies,” and if Trump follows his dangerous agenda, “preventable diseases like measles and polio could make a comeback.”

These hit pieces, the first two dropping a week before Trump’s victory, were a red light flashing the abject fear of the revolving-door lobbyists and their corporate media allies over the prospect of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ending the K-Street scam that has led to the capture of our federal agencies by the very industries they are supposed to be regulating.

The palpable fear crosses party lines.

As the Washington Post notes: “The prospect of Kennedy holding any senior administration role has increasingly alarmed public health leaders and federal workers who say that he should not be allowed anywhere near the nation’s public health infrastructure.” The reason for the dread: Kennedy’s goal of liberating the federal agencies from the grip that corporate and financial interests, from Big Pharma to Big Food, have exerted over them for decades. He’s Public Enemy Number One in the eyes of the lobbyists and bureaucrats who have been complicit in the continuing degradation of American health.

Kennedy has insisted that he would do nothing to prevent access to vaccines; he only pledged to carry out the safety studies that the pharmaceutical industry has prevented the health agencies from conducting with objectivity. Thus, armed with “informed consent,” Americans could weigh the risks and make the decisions for themselves and their children without compulsion. That’s a welcomed change from the current regime of a federally decreed vaccine schedule for children, enforced via hospital and school mandates.

Ironically, the same health establishment—sounding alarms about potential harms resulting from Trump giving RFK Jr. a central role in ending the conflicts of interest determining health policy in the United States—remains utterly silent about exploding autism rates among children in recent decades, the mental health crisis and soaring rates of teens on mood-altering prescription drugs, and a new USDA study revealing that a shocking 38 percent of teens now suffer from pre-diabetes. The same crowd panicking over the alleged dangers to public health were RFK Jr. able to remove conflicts of interest in the system show absolutely no interest in determining the cause of our epidemic of chronic childhood disease in this country.

While skepticism about the oversized influence of the pharmaceutical industry used to be standard on the political left, the Democratic Party is now the locus of pro-Big Pharma propagandizing. The COVID pandemic, coupled with a severe case of Trump Derangement Syndrome, seemed to change that skeptical attitude virtually overnight, to the point that today we take it for granted that the most enthusiastic cheerleaders for the latest unsafe and ineffective Pharma product will be found on the left.

We should therefore not be surprised by liberals taking potshots at RFK Jr.’s planned reforms. Zeke Emanuel, a key architect of Obamacare and COVID lockdown advocate, warns that “appointing RFK Jr. to a major public health leadership role could have serious and damaging consequences…making him a disastrous choice.” Dr. Paul Offit, a critic of Kennedy’s who had a leading role in amplifying Dr. Fauci’s COVID measures, cautions that “his science denialism makes him the wrong person for any kind of progress.”

But the Republican Party establishment forms a more insidious political opposition. Many in the old guard with strong ties to Big Pharma exerted an outsize role in the first Trump administration—they have much to lose in a disruption of the dysfunctional status quo. Now they are preemptively calling wolf: “It will be hard for a Trump administration to focus on other priorities, if government agencies are busy dealing with resource intensive and preventable measles and polio outbreaks” claims former US Surgeon General Jerome Adams, echoing the scaremongering on the pro-Pharma left. RFK Jr. shaping health policies raises “concerns about misinformation and harm,” he warns. Other GOP players are anonymously quoted in the Washington Post article urging “the Trump transition team to consider more traditional options to lead federal health agencies,” naming several options who toed the Big Pharma line in the first term.

The GOP opposition also includes members of the “conservative” punditry who hearken back to a pre-Trump brand of Republicanism. The institutionalist Right, already hostile to Trump for his apostasy from the post-Reagan “conservative” consensus in favor of mass immigration, globalist trade schemes that subsidized the mass movement of U.S. manufacturing overseas coupled with the easy importation of cheap foreign goods and labor, and interventionist adventurism abroad. Add to that a Make America Healthy Again agenda of directly tackling the corporate capture of government, and these self-appointed gatekeepers start seeing red more than they would at a MAGA rally. Curbing Big Pharma in setting policy and in buying off any potentially critical news coverage (through the intimidation factor of their enormous investment in advertising) is characterized as an attack on the sanctity of the Free Market.

While these political fossils may be failing to read the populist room after the electoral victory for MAGA and MAHA last week, no one should underestimate the ability of Big Food and Big Pharma - and their allies in the corporate-backed think tanks and media outlets - to gin up opposition to the very health agenda Kennedy has been given the mandate to advance. But the campaign may fail to gain political traction in the wake of the collapse in public trust for the healthcare establishment after the COVID debacle. Appeals to credentialed health experts no longer carry much weight with a public that was lied to and manipulated by this same crowd over the last four years. Many Americans are waking up to the fact that blind faith in medical and scientific experts lies at the very root of the chronic disease epidemic afflicting our once-healthy nation.

The time is opportune for a radical revamping of our corrupt health establishment, and RFK Jr. is just the right person at the right time under Trump to pull it off.

*  *  *

Brian Robertson served for over a decade in the U.S. Senate as a senior policy advisor and worked for the Trump administration at both HHS and the Department of State.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/12/2024 - 16:20

Small Caps Slayed As Yields, Crypto, & The Dollar Soar

Bitcoin came within a few bucks of the $90,000 Maginot Line today - up a stunning 30% since right before the election results started to pour in...

Source: Bloomberg

Winter is over?

Source: Bloomberg

Massive inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs over the last week have helped...

Source: Bloomberg

...and so has the sudden resurgence in global liquidity...

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum was actually lower on the day today after topping $3400 intraday

Source: Bloomberg

...as the post-election DeFi mania wears off...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar was another huuuge winner today... up over 5% in the last seven weeks to two-year highs...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar strength has started to hammer gold - which is now down at near two-month lows...

Source: Bloomberg

The gold-dollar correlation regime has normalized after both surging together for a few months...

Source: Bloomberg

Yields surged today, playing catch up after yesterday's holiday (the long-end was a slight laggard with 10Y +13bps, 2Y +9bps). Yields are now back up near the post-election spike highs...

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields are back at their highest in five-months...

Source: Bloomberg

Small Caps were really ugly today (-1.8%) while The Dow ended on the lows of the day...

...as the 'short squeeze' finally stalled (worst day for 'most shorted' stocks since Sept 3rd)...

Source: Bloomberg

...and yields start to hurt from the bottom up (small-caps, then mid-caps) after the bigly squeeze from the election...

Source: Bloomberg

Bond vol is starting to pick up a little...

Source: Bloomberg

But the post-election vol collapse has stalled...

Source: Bloomberg

Crude oil prices were flat today with WTI holding around $68, still notably down from the election...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, investors want equities: SPY has witnessed 9 consecutive days of inflows (totaling to ~$18bn over the period)...

Source: Goldman Sachs

As Goldman Sachs trader John Flood notes, the longest streak of inflows SPY has seen is 10 days, which was last witnessed in 2014.

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/12/2024 - 16:00

Long-Range Ukrainian Drone Strike On Warships In Caspian Sea Worries Kremlin

Earlier this month Ukraine's military achieved a significant first, and one which was surely noticed by Russia as cause for deep alarm. On November 6, a large Ukrainian kamikaze drone struck Russian warships in the Caspian Sea, at a huge distance from the front lines of the war.

Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence service said at least two targets were hit, likely a pair of missile patrol ships moored closely together at the Russian naval base in the city of Kaspiysk. This is an astounding more than 900 miles (1500km) from the border with Ukraine.

The port city, located in the Republic of Dagestan, has seen an increase of Russian ships off its coast of late, given much of the Black Sea fleet has been relocated to the Caspian in order to protect these valuable military assets from drone and missile attacks out of Ukraine, especially while they are moored and inactive.

"Ukraine has repeatedly attacked the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet with drone boats and missile strikes, and it has effectively driven Russian surface combatants and submarines out of the Crimean peninsula," The Maritime Executive writes.

"The majority of the fleet is now homeported in Novorossiysk, in the northeastern corner of the Black Sea, to avoid the risk of further attacks," the report continues. "Strikes on the distant Caspian Flotilla - which Russia has used repeatedly to launch cruise missiles - indicate that Ukraine's reach has grown."

Since the start of the war Ukraine has achieved at least a dozen successful major strikes damaging Russian naval assets at the Black Sea Crimean port of Sevastopol.

But if Ukraine has demonstrated that its drones can reach all the way into the Caspian, this means Russia will have to take further measures in keeping its fleet safe. There appears to be a media blackout of the Caspian Sea drone incident, per regional media:

Despite the head of Dagestan's call not to post photos and videos of the incident, channels from Dagestan and across Russia are full of videos of the drone's flight and impact from different angles.

The incident is also being hotly discussed on local social media. During the attempt to shoot down the drone, the Russian military spared no bullets, and as a result, some of them hit the homes of the Caspian people. Bloggers complain that despite the allocation of 550 million rubles ($5,640,000) of state funds for the Safe City system, neither the Emergency Situations Ministry's warning nor the civil defense systems worked. The mayor of Kaspiysk announced after the strike that street lighting will be turned off between 1 and 8AM "to minimize the presence of people on the streets at night."

This morning, Ukrainian attack drones successfully struck Russia's Caspian Sea flotilla in the port of Kaspiysk, over 1000 km behind the frontline.

Seen here, a Ukrainian drone flies low over the harbor and slams into a row of docked Russian warships. pic.twitter.com/06vbjUfblQ

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 6, 2024

Speculation over the drone used in the attack has focused on the Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat aircraft. It is a tiny plane that resembles a Cessna which has been converted into a kamikaze drone.

One industry website says that the small two-seater would have to undergo extensive modifications for drone use:

For the kamikaze operation, the aircraft had to be configured to carry an explosive payload. A designated compartment could be engineered within the aircraft to securely contain the explosives, designed for safe transport and effective detonation at the target. An activation mechanism might be developed to detonate the payload either remotely or upon impact with the target.

An eyewitness account has been provided by Forbes as follows:

As Russian sailors dove for cover, one of the Aeroprakt A-22s—apparently operated by the Ukrainian intelligence directorate—plowed into a clutch of warships moored side-by-side along a pier.

According to Anton Gerashchenko, a former advisor to the interior ministry in Kyiv, the explosion damaged three ships, including two Gepard-class frigates—the fleet’s biggest ships—as well as a smaller Buyan corvette. The damaged vessels may account for nearly a third of the Caspian Fleet’s strength.

UAV strikes the port of Kaspiysk, where Russian naval ships. Local sources confirm that the drone targeted the base of the Russian Navy’s Caspian Flotilla, a site that hosts strategic assets like a missile division. pic.twitter.com/oUYUrZifhQ

— Bandera Fella *-^ (@banderafella) November 6, 2024

For such a great distance as over 1,000km - the aircraft would also have to undergo significant upgrades to increase fuel capacity or improve fuel efficiency. Some of Ukraine's most significant strikes on Russian territory of late have especially focused on taking out fuel depots and energy transit points, many which are deep into Russia.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/12/2024 - 15:40

Strategist Carville Blasts Democrats For Their "Goddamn Arrogance And Stupidity"

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Old School lefty strategist James Carville is still raking Democrats across the coals for doing everything wrong and becoming an obsolete political force.

In another rant, Carville, the former lead strategist in Bill Clinton’s winning 1992 Presidential campaign, noted “We have no legislative power, we have no executive power, we have no judicial power. So when you’re out of power, you’re an opposition party. And go and tell all the people that are sending you and asking you for money, justify what you did, justify what you did wrong, and tell us what you’re going to do different.”

He continued, “what you’ve done ain’t worth a shit. Get your head around that. And all of the Washington-based Democrats farting around, going to wine and cheese parties, and talking about how misogynistic the race is, get your ass out of Washington, and go work on a 2026 campaign and do penance to make up for your goddamn arrogance and stupidity.”

Oof.

Carville then referenced woke identity politics, which was disastrously embraced by the Democrats, urging “we’re going to say we told you so. We told you this identity shit was disaster. We told you to get out in front of public safety issues. You didn’t.”

He further declared, “we got caught in the grip of the stupid God damn identitarian mission. Defund the police. The entire era of Jackassery.”

Carville also noted how the coup of Biden and the anointment of Harris was a grave error for Democrats.

“We told you to have an open process and demonstrate the magnificent and staggering and deep talent that exists in the modern Democratic Party. You didn’t. We told you to differentiate yourself from Biden. You didn’t,” he urged.

“I hate to be some fucking know-it-all, but all of these things are part of the record,” Carville proclaimed.

Carville also again pointed to Kamala’s awful appearance on The View, where she couldn’t think of a single thing to say when asked what she would do different to Biden.

“We got fucked because on the single money question, the single thing that it boils down to is what would you do different? That was the fattest softest pitch you could possibly get, but you missed it. I mean, you didn’t just miss it. You missed it by four feet,” Carville blasted.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/12/2024 - 14:35

"People Of Israel Love Him": Mike Huckabee Tapped As Trump's Ambassador To Israel

President-elect Donald Trump has announced his nomination for the important post of US Ambassador to Israel, at a moment the Middle East stands on the brink, with wars raging in Gaza and Lebanon, and with tensions boiling between Tehran and Tel Aviv.

"I am pleased to announce that the Highly Respected former Governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee, has been nominated to be The United States Ambassador to Israel," an official statement from the Trump transition team says.

The statement released early Tuesday afternoon continues, "Mike has been a great public servant, Governor, and Leader in faith for many years. He loves Israel, and the people of Israel, and likewise, the people of Israel love him. Mike will work tirelessly to bring about Peace in the Middle East!

Huckabee has been on programs from FOX to "Trinity Broadcast Network" - a charismatic televangelist network based out of Dallas.

If Israel is 'loved' by the Israeli people, we doubt the Palestinians feel the same, given that throughout his career - both as governor of Arkansas, and as a FOX News and talk radio pundit - he has been a staunch supporter of the Jewish state and simultaneously an Iran hawk.

At this moment, Biden's special envoy to the Middle East has said there is a "shot" to achieve ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, even as missile exchanges and bombings on either side of the border ramp up.

The prospect of a Gaza peace and hostage deal looks more remote than ever, and there's almost no chance of a deal being achieved in the Gaza Strip during the rest of Biden's term.

Huckabee in the post of US ambassador to Israel will no doubt be greeted with joy among Netanyahu government officials. The appointment also surely satisfies the Fox-watching and conservative talk radio demographic among Americans.

Regardless, Huckabee is set to take over the embassy in Jerusalem which is at the heart of several warring fronts. Netanyahu officials on Tuesday have gone so far as to say now is not the time for ceasefire in Lebanon, until the military's goals are achieved. Huckabee is likely to agree.

The Israeli lobby in the US is also going to be quite happy at this development, along with other picks being revealed this week:

Trump has selected AIPAC-approved Rep. Mike Waltz to serve as his national security advisor. pic.twitter.com/rTBxRycbhL

— AIPAC Tracker (@TrackAIPAC) November 12, 2024

Below is his full bio, by the National Governors Association 

* * *

MIKE HUCKABEE was born in Hope, Arkansas, and graduated from Ouachita Baptist University. Huckabee served as Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas from 1993 until July 1996 when he became Governor after his predecessor resigned, becoming one of the youngest governors in the country at the time. Huckabee was elected to a full four-year term as governor in 1998 and was reelected in November 2002. He pushed through education reforms in Arkansas that significantly expanded the availability of college scholarships, increased the number of charter schools, and established new approaches to workforce education. His Smart Start and Smart Step initiatives placed a heavy emphasis on reading and mathematics for students from kindergarten through the eighth grade, and since their creation student scores on standardized tests have risen steadily. Huckabee was also a leader in improving health care, creating the ARKids First program to extend health insurance coverage to tens of thousands of children, and leading a ballot initiative that devoted all of the state’s tobacco settlement money to improving the health of Arkansans. He led the Healthy Arkansas campaign, which received nationwide attention for its emphasis on changing the unhealthy behaviors of Arkansas residents.

In 1996, Huckabee led the fight for Amendment 75 to the Arkansas Constitution, which created a sales tax that funded one of the finest systems of state parks in the country and a system of state-of-the-art nature centers. Known as the “highway governor,” he led the campaign for a 1999 bond issue to rehabilitate the state’s system of crumbling interstate highways. Huckabee also won passage of the first major, broad-based tax cuts in state history; led efforts to establish a Property Taxpayers’ Bill of Rights; and created a welfare reform program that reduced the welfare rolls in the state by almost 50 percent. He is a former chairman of the Southern Governors’ Association, the Southern Growth Policies Board, the Southern Technology Council and the Southern International Trade Council. Huckabee chairs the Education Commission of the States and is the immediate past president of the Council of State Governments. Huckabee served as chair of the National Governors Association from 2005 to 2006, overseeing the initiative “Healthy America: Wellness Where We Live, Work and Learn.”

Mike Huckabee is fed up with Nikki Haley:

"She blames Donald Trump for the chaos. It's not Donald Trump that created the chaos."pic.twitter.com/O8RQHnmKDl

— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) February 2, 2024

He and his wife, Janet, have three grown children: John Mark, David, and Sarah. After attending Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary in Fort Worth, Texas, Huckabee was a Baptist minister at several churches in Arkansas.  After serving as Governor, Huckabee ran for U.S. President in 2008 and 2016. Huckabee provided political commentary to the Fox News channel and was given his own weekend talk show, Huckabee, which first aired on Fox News in 2007. He has also hosted several talk-radio shows. Huckabee enjoys hunting, fishing and reading.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/12/2024 - 14:15

NY Fed Survey Finds Broad Improvement In Economic Sentiment As Inflation Expectations Slide

One month after the October NY Fed consumer expectations survey showed a rebound in stagflation dynamics as inflation expectations at both the 3 and 5 year horizon increased while perceptions about the broader economy deteriorated (especially as debt delinquency expectations hit a 4 year high), the deterioration in sentiment reversed substantially in the latest, November survey, which saw inflation expectations decline at the short-, medium-, and longer-term horizons. At the same time, labor market expectations improved with households reporting a lower likelihood of higher unemployment and job loss, and a higher likelihood of finding a job if they were laid off. Perceptions of credit access and expectations for future credit access both improved in October, and households reported a lower likelihood of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months. In short: Trump becomes president and sentiment about the economy immediately turns more favorable.

Here are the details from the NY Fed's survey (which is an internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month).

One day ahead of the October CPI report, one-year ahead inflation expectations declined from 3.0% to 2.87%, the lowest since October 2020; three-year-ahead inflation expectations declined by 0.2% point to 2.5%, and five-year-ahead inflation expectations declined by 0.1% point to 2.8%. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) declined at all three horizons, while median inflation uncertainty declined at the three- and five-year horizons.

Over the next five years, lower-income and less-educated consumers were most inclined to see a drop in long-term inflation (suggesting educated consumers realize that prices are set to rise). Among respondents with a high-school education or less, the expected rate five years ahead dropped to 2.4%, from 2.9% in September. The drop was even steeper for consumers with incomes below $50,000, falling to 2.1% from 2.7%.

The report will provide the Fed will comfort that consumer inflation expectations continue to be anchored - an economic signal the Fed is monitoring as it decides how quickly to lower interest rates. Such surveys of moods aren’t scientific predictions, but they can help inform about future behavior because expectations can be self-fulfilling since consumers who anticipate higher inflation are typically more apt to demand higher pay. That can lead to what economists call a wage-price spiral, where employers facing higher wage bills seek to increase prices to maintain their margins.

Yet while consumers expect inflation to taper, inflation expectations among US business leaders increased in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research. Its latest survey found that CEOs expect inflation to be 3.8% over the next 12 months, up from 3.4% in July.

Back to the household survey, median home price growth expectations were unchanged at 3.0% in October. This series has been moving in a narrow range between 3.0% and 3.3% since August 2023.

Year-ahead commodity price expectations declined by 0.2% for gas to 3.2% (the least in two years) decline by 0.2% for food to 4.3% the lowest since before the pandemic, 0.2% for the cost of college education to 5.7%, and 0.4% for rent to 5.9%.  The expected cost of medical care also declined by 0.8% to 5.8%, the measure’s lowest reading since January 2020.

Labor market expectations, meanwhile, improved with households reporting a lower likelihood of higher unemployment and job loss, and a higher probability of finding a job if they were laid off.

Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 1.7% to 34.5%, the measure’s lowest reading since February 2022.

There were more employment green shoots: the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 13.0%. This decrease was most pronounced for respondents under the age of 40 and those with a college degree. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months increased by 0.1 percentage point to 20.5%.

The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one’s current job was lost) increased by 3.3% points to 56.0%, the measure’s highest reading since October 2023. This increase was most pronounced for respondents with a high school education or less.

Turning to earnings, the median year-ahead earnings growth expectations were unchanged at 2.8% in October. The figure has moving within a narrow range between 2.7% and 3% this year, providing employers some certainty in their anticipated labor cost projections.

Household finance expectations were also broadly solid with modest improvements in the latest report:

• The median expected growth in household income was unchanged at 3.0% in October. The series has been moving in a narrow band between 2.9% and 3.3% since January 2023.
• Median household spending growth expectations were unchanged at 4.9% but remain well above pre-pandemic levels.
• Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago improved in October, with a decreasing (increasing) net share of households reporting it is harder (easier) to obtain credit than one year ago. Expectations for future credit availability also improved in October.

• The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 13.9%, the first decrease since May 2024. The decrease was most pronounced for those under the age of 40. This series remains above its 12-month trailing average of 12.6%.
• The median expected year-ahead change in taxes at households’ current income level was unchanged at 4.0%.
• Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased by 0.5 percentage point to 8.5%.
• The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 24.6%.
• The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 39.1%.

Putting it all together, perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago improved in October, with a rising share of households reporting a better situation relative to those reporting a worse situation.

Similarly, year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations improved in October.

And all it took was Trump's blowout victory in the presidential elections.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/12/2024 - 14:00