Individual Economists

Who Blinks First? China May Exempt Tariffs On US Ethane & Other Goods

Zero Hedge -

Who Blinks First? China May Exempt Tariffs On US Ethane & Other Goods

By now it's become increasingly clear that both the U.S. and China are eager to de-escalate the trade war, yet neither is willing to make the first move. In China, export orders are drying up, and factories are shutting down. Meanwhile, across the Pacific Ocean in the U.S., containerized cargo volumes through the Port of Los Angeles are teetering on the edge of a very sharp decline, threatening to send shockwaves through Southern California's economy and beyond.

Early Friday, several media outlets reported that China's government has either considered or exempted some U.S. imports from a 125% tariff rate. 

Let's begin with Bloomberg, which cited people familiar with the matter who said Beijing is considering removing tariffs on medical equipment and certain industrial chemicals, including ethane.

As we noted earlier this week, the U.S. is a major supplier of ethane—a petrochemical feedstock and component of natural gas. Ethane is a critical input for China's plastics industry, with few alternative suppliers outside the U.S. Needless to say, any disruption to ethane shipments would severely impact China's plastics sector

Those sources continued down Beijing's laundry list of potential tariffs to be removed, including waiving the tariff for plane leases... Boeing has caught a sigh of relief.

"It's another step toward a de-escalation of the trade war," said Kok Hoong Wong of Maybank Securities, adding that a trade deal might not be imminent, but certainly, "it would appear the worst may truly be over."

Bloomberg Economics analysts Chang Shu and Eric Zhu commented on the BBG headline: 

"Exempting critical, hard-to-replace U.S. products from tariffs would be a pragmatic approach that could ease tensions with the U.S. and serve the interests of Chinese industry. Anything that helps lower the temperature in the trade war is also beneficial from the perspective of avoiding broader clashes with the U.S."

In a separate report, Reuters stated that instead of merely considering exemptions, Beijing has already "exempted" certain U.S. imports from the 125% tariff, citing businesses that were notified by authorities about the change.

"As a quid-pro-quo move, it could provide a potential way to de-escalate tensions," said Alfredo Montufar-Helu, a senior adviser to the Conference Board's China Center. 

Montufar-Helu warned: "It's clear that neither the U.S. nor China want to be the first in reaching out for a deal."

Earlier in the week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned a US-China trade deal could take 2 to 3 years to finalize. 

Bessent emphasized at a closed-door investor meeting on Tuesday: "No one thinks the current status quo is sustainable, at 145% and 125%, so I would posit that over the very near future, there will be a de-escalation. We have an embargo now on both sides."

Both sides may want a deal to avoid further tariff fallout in their respective economies, but neither wants to appear desperate on the global stage. China is grappling with shuttered factories and possible ethane supply woes that threaten to roil its core manufacturing economy, while in the U.S., containerized volumes through the Port of Los Angeles are poised for a steep decline in the coming week

 

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 10:20

Brainwashed Democrats Continue To See Imminent Inflation-pocalypse; But UMich Sentiment Improved Intra-Month

Zero Hedge -

Brainwashed Democrats Continue To See Imminent Inflation-pocalypse; But UMich Sentiment Improved Intra-Month

Having been widely mocked - and quantitatvely denigrated by Goldman Sachs - this morning's final print for UMich consumer sentiment for April is now a must watch.

As a reminder, Goldman explained that the Michigan measure has been especially susceptible to the tariff news recently for three reasons.

First, inflation expectations in the survey have become extremely partisan. 

Second, the share of respondents in the Michigan survey who are Democrats has always been consistently higher than the share of respondents who are Republicans

Third, switching from a phone-based to an online-based data collection process has led to more extreme answers on inflation expectations.

These three issues together have boosted short-term inflation expectations in the Michigan survey by about 1.3pp and long-term inflation expectations by 0.5pp since 2024Q4. In particular, the change in distribution across political parties and increased partisanship together generated an outsized 1.0pp boost to the 1-year inflation expectation in February.

So, with all that in mind, let's see what the final data looks like - did it get even crazier?

The short answer is - YES!

UMich 1Yr inflation expectations rose to 6.5% (slightly lower than the 6.8% expected but still the highest since Nov 1981) while the 5-10Y expectations jumped to 4.4%  - the highest since June 1991...

Source: Bloomberg

The gaping chasm of propaganda-driven fear is evident below the surface with Republicans expected 0.4% inflation while Democrats expect - wait for it - 8.0% price rises in the next year (Independents also saw inflation expectations rising)...

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Bear in mind that Democrat's 1Yr inflation expectations are now more than 2 times higher than they were in June 2021 when inflation would actually rise to 9%. Back then the Democrats were only off by a factor of 3x.

The final April sentiment index declined to 52.2 from 57 a month earlier, but this was considerably better than the 50.8 preliminary number and the median estimate of 50.5 in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

"While this month’s deterioration was particularly strong for middle-income families, expectations worsened for vast swaths of the population across age, education, income, and political affiliation," Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement. 

“ Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead."

The survey showed the expectations index plunged 11.4 points, the sharpest drop since 2021, to 52.6 this month. The current conditions gauge decreased to a six-month low of 63.8.

Source: Bloomberg

After five straight months of disappointments, April saw the biggest beat for headline UMich sentiment since June 2024...

Source: Bloomberg

“ Labor market expectations remained bleak,’’ Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement. 

“ Even more concerning for the path of the economy, consumers anticipated weaker income growth for themselves in the year ahead. Without reliably strong incomes, spending is unlikely to remain strong amid the numerous warnings signs perceived by consumers.”

Compare UMich's survey for the longer-term inflation expectations, according to Democrats, to what the market is pricing in...

Source: Bloomberg

Is it really any surprise that even Fed Chair Jay Powell dismisses this survey's farcical numbers as a partisan outlier.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 10:17

Q1 GDP Tracking: No Growth

Calculated Risk -

The advance estimate of Q1 GDP is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, April 30th. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in real GDP, quarter-over-quarter annualized - or essentially no growth in Q1.

From BofA:
We expect 1Q advance GDP to print at a weak 0.4% q/q saar, largely on the back of an import surge driven by front loading ahead of the tariffs. We look for a rise in 1Q inventory accumulation as well, but not enough to offset higher imports. The risks to our inventory tracking and 1Q GDP print are to the downside, since inventories are susceptible to measurement issues. [Apr 17th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
we lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to -0.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 24th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.5 percent on April 24, down from -2.2 percent on April 17. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.4 percent. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, both the standard model’s and the alternative model’s nowcasts of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 8.9 percent to 7.1 percent. [Apr 24th estimate]

Bitcoin Extends Gains As Fed Pulls Biden-Era Guidance On Bank's Crypto Dealings

Zero Hedge -

Bitcoin Extends Gains As Fed Pulls Biden-Era Guidance On Bank's Crypto Dealings

The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday announced the withdrawal of guidance for banks related to their crypto-asset and dollar token activities and related changes to its expectations for these activities. 

These actions ensure the Board's expectations remain aligned with evolving risks and further support innovation in the banking system.

Bitcoin prices extended gains above $95,000...

Amid a sudden resurgence in net inflows into BTC ETFs...

The Board is rescinding its 2022 supervisory letter establishing an expectation that state member banks provide advance notification of planned or current crypto-asset activities. 

As a result, the Board will no longer expect banks to provide notification and will instead monitor banks' crypto-asset activities through the normal supervisory process.

The Board is also rescinding its 2023 supervisory letter regarding the supervisory nonobjection process for state member bank engagement in dollar token activities.

Finally, the Board, together with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is joining the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in withdrawing from two 2023 statements jointly issued by the federal bank regulatory agencies regarding banks' crypto-asset activities and exposures. 

The Board will work with the agencies to consider whether additional guidance to support innovation, including crypto-asset activities, is appropriate.

Additionally, CoinTelegraph reports that Bitcoin is flashing multiple technical and onchain signals suggesting that a rally to $100,000 is possible by May.

And as we have noted recently, bitcoin continues to track lagged global liquidity almost perfectly...

Combined with bullish chart structures and concentrated short liquidity overhead, BTC remains positioned for a potential move toward $100,000 by May.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 09:25

Futures Slide After Trump Interview Reverses Boost From China Tariff Cut Reports

Zero Hedge -

Futures Slide After Trump Interview Reverses Boost From China Tariff Cut Reports

US equity futures are mixed after three days of gain, with tech leading, highlighted by GOOG (+5.6% amid strong earnings results last night), META (+3.5%), and TSLA (+1.6%). S&P futures first rose to session highs during the Asian session, when sentiment was first buoyed by dovish remarks from Fed officials Christopher Waller and Beth Hammack, which bolstered expectations for a potential interest-rate cut as soon as June; but the session highlight was a Bloomberg report that China was considering suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports including plane leases, indicating a shift in the game theoretical "game of chicken" balance and suggesting a deal may come sooner than expected as pain levels are rising for Beijing. Later, foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun reiterated that China is not in talks with the US over tariffs, contradicting Trump and underscoring the complexities for investors tracking headlines out of Washington and Beijing. Futures then slumped to session lows just after 6am ET after Time published an interview with Trump (which took place on April 22) in which the president said China's President Xi has called him (something China denies), said he would not call XI himself, and when asked if high tariffs are still present a year from now, Trump said that would be a "total victory" adding that he expects trade deals in the next 3-4 weeks. In other words, if China may have been offering an olive branch before the interview, those hopes were dashed after its publication and S&P futures reflected that, sliding to session lows down about 0.4% after earlier they rose by the same amouint.

The dollar strengthened, while the yen and Swiss franc retreated as investor demand for non-US haven assets waned. Gold slid 1.5%. Treasuries extended their gains from Thursday; Bond yields dropped (2-, 5-, 10-yr yields are 0.8bp, -0.2bp, -1.6bp lower). Commodities were mixed with Base Metals higher and Precious Metals lower.  The US session includes revised April University of Michigan sentiment gauges, and Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the May FOMC meeting starts Saturday.

In premarket trading, Alphabet shares jumped as much as 5% after posting first-quarter revenue and profit that exceeded analysts’ expectations, buoyed by continued strength in its search advertising business. Alphabet was the top gainer in the Magnificent Seven stocks (Alphabet +4.9%, Meta +3.2%, Amazon +0.5%, Tesla +0.9%, Nvidia +0.4%, Microsoft -0.2%, Apple -0.8%; Alphabet rises 4.9%). Intel tumbled 7% as CEO Lip-Bu Tan gave investors a stark diagnosis of the chipmaker’s problems, along with the sense that it will take a while to fix them. Gilead drops 3.9% after the biopharmaceutical company posted 1Q revenue that fell short of estimates as sales of Trodelvy and Veklury disappointed. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Eastman Chemical Co. (EMN) falls 2.3% after the chemicals and plastics maker provided a disappointing second-quarter profit forecast, citing factors including tariffs between the US and China.
  • Hasbro rises 1.0% as Citi upgrades to buy, citing underlying momentum of the toymaker’s business.
  • Ironwood Pharmaceuticals climbs 9.3% after the company reaffirmed its revenue forecast for the full year.
  • Sphere Entertainment rises 13% after its wholly-owned unit MSG Networks reached a deal to restructure the debt of its subsidiaries and amend the media rights agreements with the New York Knicks and the New York Rangers.
  • T-Mobile falls 5.7% after the company reported fewer new wireless phone subscribers than analysts expected in the first quarter.
  • Skechers USA slides 6.9% after the footwear company said it’s not providing financial guidance and withdrawing its previous annual outlook due to macroeconomic uncertainty.

On the trade front, Bloomberg News reported that China is considering suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports. Later, Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun reiterated that China isn’t in talks with the US over tariffs, contradicting President Donald Trump and underscoring the complexities for investors tracking headlines out of Washington and Beijing.

“We are currently in tariff purgatory,” said Joachim Klement, strategist at Panmure Liberum. “There is no fundamental change to the outlook, so markets latch on to noise and get constantly whipsawed by the ever-changing utterances of Donald Trump and his cabinet.”

Confirming that, in an interview Time published with Trump just after 6am ET, and which took place on April 22, Trump said China's President Xi has called him even though China has denied this; when asked if high tariffs are still present a
year from now, Trump said that would be a "total victory." 

  • In the interview, Trump said tariffs are still necessary.
  • "If we still have high tariffs, whether it’s 20% or 30% or 50%, on foreign imports a year from now, will you consider that a victory?", he responded, "Total victory"
  • When asked if he would call Xi (if Xi did not call him), Trump replied "No".
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Secretary of Commerce Lutnick "did not tell me" to do a 90-day pause.
  • ”1 certainly don’t mind having a tax increase" on millionaires
  • Being serious when talking about acquiring the Panama canal, Greenland, and making Canada the 51st state
  • Trade deals expected in the next 3-4 weeks

More recently, on Thursday, Trump said his administration was talking with China, even as Beijing denied the existence of negotiations and demanded the US revoke all unilateral tariffs. Meanwhile, the US and South Korea could reach an “agreement of understanding” on trade as soon as next week, said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. 

Traders also took some early comfort from hopes that the Fed may reduce interest rates earlier than expected. Markets currently favor a quarter-point cut in June and a total of three such reductions by year-end. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he’d support rate cuts in the event aggressive tariffs under President Trump’s trade policies hurt the jobs market, speaking on Bloomberg Television. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack told CNBC the central bank could move on rates as early as June if it has clear evidence of the economy’s direction.

While the dollar was on course for its first weekly gain in a month, Bank of America strategists said investors should sell into rallies in US stocks and the greenback, cautioning that the conditions for sustained gains are missing. The dollar is in the midst of a longer term depreciation while the shift away from US assets has further to go, according to the BofA team led by Michael Hartnett. The trend would continue until the Fed starts cutting rates, the US reaches a trade deal with China and consumer spending stays resilient. The depreciation of the dollar is the “cleanest investment theme to play,” according to Hartnett.

The Stoxx 600 rises 0.3%, on track for a fourth day of gains as worries about trade tensions between China and the US subsided, with most significant moves triggered by a continued deluge of earnings, including from Saab and Safran. Alten and Hemnet are among the biggest laggers. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

  • IMCD shares rise as much as 8.5% after the chemicals maker’s earnings met expectations, which analysts said was a relief given yesterday’s plunge on the shock news its CEO was leaving
  • Saab shares gain as much as 4.3%, reversing earlier declines of 5.2%. The Swedish defense firm’s 1Q earnings beat expectations, though their order intake missed
  • Safran shares rise as much as 4.8% after the French aerospace and defense firm reported adjusted revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
  • Yara shares rise as much as 5.7% after the Norwegian agricultural chemicals firm reported adjusted Ebitda for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
  • Accor shares rise as much as 5.6% to the highest level this month. Analysts say the French hotel operator’s results are favorable, noting positive demand commentary and expectations for net unit growth throughout the year
  • Saint-Gobain rises as much as 4.3% after the construction materials producer’s 1Q. Analysts are generally positive on the results, with Morgan Stanley praising the firm’s consistent delivery
  • Alten shares slide as much as 12% after the French IT firm reported a 5.5% drop in organic sales in 1Q, warning that some of its major clients are freezing or postponing projects due to tariff uncertainties
  • Hemnet shares drop as much as 11%, their worst drop since October, after the Swedish property platform missed expectations in the first quarter, giving up gains leading into the results
  • Kemira shares fall as much as 15%, the steepest drop in almost 14 years, after the Finnish chemicals company warned over the impact on end-markets of increased economic uncertainty
  • Mobico Group shares plunge as much as 11% after the company announced it is selling its school bus business in North America. Analysts said the price tag is disappointing

Asian equities also advanced after a Bloomberg report said Beijing is weighing a suspension of its 125% tariff on some US imports, though the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun later denied that they’re in talks with the US.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained as signs of progress in trade negotiations boosted sentiment, with a major regional benchmark erasing all losses driven by Trump’s April 2 Liberation Day announcement of reciprocal tariffs. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.9%, with TSMC and Tencent among the biggest contributors. Benchmarks in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea all advanced. The key MSCI Asian index joins benchmarks in India, Korea, Australia and Indonesia in recouping losses from this month’s tariff selloff. The regional gauge is on track to cap its second-straight week of gains. Meanwhile, stocks and bonds tumbled in India, as traders braced for a potential worsening of the geopolitical situation with neighboring Pakistan. Indian shares were the worst performers in Asia on Friday, while the rupee and the nation’s bonds also slid, indicating growing angst among traders over any further ramping up of tensions between the two nuclear-armed nations. Markets are closed in Australia and New Zealand for holidays Friday. Key events to watch next week include rate decisions in Japan and Thailand as well as China PMI data.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as much as 0.4% and is set to notch its first weekly gain in a month. The greenback gained versus all G-10 currencies;  The Japanese yen is among the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.5% against the greenback; USD/JPY rises 0.8% to 143.85.  

In rates, Treasury futures rose to session highs in early US trading, with yields 1bp-4bp richer across a flatter curve, outperforming European bonds after stronger-than-expected UK retail sales data. The 10-year yield near 4.29% was ~3bp richer on the day, outperforming German counterpart by 5bp, UK by 2bp. Among US yield-curve spreads, 2s10s and 5s30s are 1bp-2bp flatter.  Shorter-dated maturities also underperform in Germany where two-year borrowing costs rise 4 bps.

In commodities, WTI falls 0.5% to $62.50 a barrel. Bitcoin rises 2% to just shy of $95,000. Haven assets underpeform, with gold falling nearly $50 to below $3,300/oz.

Looking at today's calendar, the US session includes revised April University of Michigan sentiment gauges, and Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the May FOMC meeting starts Saturday.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini -0.2%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%
  • Russell 2000 mini -0.5%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.1%
  • DAX +0.4%
  • CAC 40 +0.7%
  • 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.28%
  • VIX +0.4 points at 27
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.3% at 1227.23, 
  • euro -0.3% at $1.1353
  • WTI crude -0.3% at $62.6/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • China has exempted some U.S. imports from its 125% tariffs and is asking firms to identify critical goods they need levy-free, according to businesses notified, in the clearest sign yet of Beijing's concerns about the trade war's economic fallout. RTRS
  • Apple plans to import most of the iPhones it sells in the US from India by the end of next year, accelerating a shift beyond China, people familiar said. The goal will require Apple to double its India capacity. BBG
  • President Trump signed an executive order boosting the deep-sea mining industry, while the order instructs the Commerce Secretary to expedite permits under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resource Act, as well as instructs the Commerce and Interior Departments to issue a report on opportunities for seabed mineral exploration on the US outer continental shelf.
  • China aims to implement more growth-supporting measures amid rising challenges from hefty U.S. tariffs. The government will seek to coordinate policy measures to support domestic economic aims amid external economic and trade struggles. the government intends to cut interest rates and the amount of cash banks are required to set aside at the central bank, while making full and effective use of existing fiscal and monetary policies, the Politburo said. WSJ
  • Bessent says South Korea trade negotiations are moving along at a faster pace than anticipated. Nikkei
  • US Republicans in Congress are to unveil a $150bln defense spending package including $27bln for Trump’s Golden Dome missile defense and $29bln for shipbuilding.
  • Japan is considering a proposal that would see it boost purchases of US soybeans to compensate for a drop in China demand. Nikkei
  • Tokyo inflation picked up to 3.4% in April, its fastest in two years and supporting the BOJ’s rate-hike stance. BBG
  • A US-India trade agreement under discussion will cover 19 categories, including greater market access for farm goods, e-commerce, data storage and critical minerals, people familiar with the matter said, the first step toward a deal that may help the South Asian nation evade higher tariffs on its goods. BBG
  • UK retail sales unexpectedly rose for a third straight month in March, helped by record-breaking sunshine. But GfK data showed consumer confidence slid to the weakest level in 17 months in April. BBG
  • Russia’s oil producers are drilling at the fastest pace in at least five years, preparing for potential OPEC+ output hikes and possible sanction relief. Activity is more than a third above pre-war levels. BBG
  • Fed's Kashkari (2026 voter) said a resolution of trade frictions would relieve uncertainty and would be optimistic, while he is worried that businesses will resort to layoffs amid uncertainties and noted some businesses say they are scenario planning for potential layoffs if uncertainty lasts although he is not seeing an uptick in layoffs yet. Furthermore, Kashkari said the frequency of announcements out of Washington has created a challenge for policymakers and for everybody.

Trade/Tariffs

  • China held a meeting on responding to trade frictions, according to the Commerce Ministry; said Trade frictions enter a high-intensity phase and are facing difficulties and challenges China said to stay confident in handling trade tension; adopt strategic approaches. To focus on preventing and resolving trade risks. Trade frictions enter a high-intensity phase and are facing difficulties and challenges. Cultivate new opportunities in crisis.
  • China's Foreign Ministry said it is not having any consultations or negotiations with the US on tariffs; on tariff exemptions, said not familiar with specifics
  • China is said to consider exempting some US goods from tariffs as costs increase with Chinese authorities considering removing additional levies for medical equipment and some industrial chemicals like ethane, according to Bloomberg citing sources familiar with the matter. It was also reported that several Chinese tech companies confirmed that eight tariff codes related to semiconductors and integrated circuits are now exempt from additional tariffs, according to Caijing.
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he had a good meeting with South Korea and they are moving faster than thought, while they will talk technical terms and could get to terms next week.
  • South Korea's Trade Minister said South Korea and the US agreed in principle on the framework for trade talks. It was also reported that South Korea's Finance Minister said they will try their best to produce meaningful results by July 8th and that autos were in focus during talks, while the two countries reached common ground on discussing measures on tariffs and non-tariff barriers, economic security, investment cooperation, and currency policy. Furthermore, technical-level talks between South Korea and the US will be held in Seoul on May 15th-16th and South Korea's Industry Minister said they reached a common ground on shipbuilding cooperation with the US.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Kato met US Treasury Secretary Bessent and told him that US tariffs are deeply regretful, while they agreed the FX rate should be set by markets and that excessive volatility has an adverse effect on the economy. It was also reported that Japan is weighing buying more US soybeans as part of a tariff deal and is also considering boosting US corn imports.
  • Canadian Finance Minister Champagne said they need to fight against the US tariffs, which are still affecting a large portion of Canadian goods. Furthermore, he said the scheduling was too tight for a bilateral meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessent but they did interact at the G7 meeting in Washington.
  • US reportedly seeks India trade deal on e-commerce, crops, and data storage, according to Bloomberg sources.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly gained as the region took impetus from the rally on Wall St amid trade-related optimism after President Trump suggested that the US and China held talks despite a denial by the latter. However, conditions were somewhat quieter for most of the session with the absence of markets in Australia and New Zealand for a holiday, although there was a slight boost on reports that China is said to consider exempting some US goods from tariffs. Nikkei 225 rallied at the open but with further gains initially capped as participants digested firmer-than-expected Tokyo CPI before the China tariff story provided a late tailwind. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat varied as the Hong Kong benchmark rallied amid strength in   property, tech and casino stocks, while the mainland lagged following the conflicting statements by the US and China on whether trade talks took place.

Top Asian News

  • China's Politburo said China's fiscal policy will be more proactive, economic recovery needs to be further reinforced; China to cut RRR and rates when needed and in a timely manner; Vows to fully prepare emergency plans for external shocks. Use well moderately loose monetary policy China to cut RRR and rates when needed and in a timely manner. To create new structural monetary tools Vows to fully prepare emergency plans for external shocks. Improve policy toolbox for stabilising employment and the economy. Implement established policies early. Will speed up issuance of ultra-long bonds.
  • PBoC Governor Pan affirmed monetary policy is to be moderately loose and said they will defend global economic stability, while he vowed to drive the Chinese economy and said China’s economy is off to a good start, continues to rebound positively, and the financial market is running smoothly.
  • China’s Finance Minister attended the G20 meeting in Washington and said the current world economic growth momentum is insufficient and tariff wars and trade wars have further affected economic and financial stability.
  • Japanese PM Ishiba said he decided on a package of measures to deal with US tariffs and instructed cabinet members to do the utmost to aid small and medium-sized enterprises that will be affected.
  • Donald Trump Jr is to meet South Korean business leaders on April 30th, according to Yonhap.
  • PCA sees China's April car sales up 14.4% to 1.75mln Units, via Bloomberg

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) opened entirely in the green with sentiment boosted by positive trade updates from China, and following a stellar Alphabet earnings report. However, around the time of the European cash open, sentiment waned a touch - but this ultimately proved fleeting. European sectors opened with a strong positive bias but is a little more mixed now. Travel & Leisure takes the top spot, with the sector propped up by post-earning strength in Accor (+4%) and Evoke (+1%). The former topped Q1 revenue expectations and highlighted that it saw “no cracks in demand” so far (re. hotels).

Top European News

  • SNB Chairman Schlegel said the main instrument is interest rate, but forex interventions can also be used to influence monetary conditions. Trade policy situation is creating high uncertainty for all countries, including Switzerland; could fragment the global economy Economic slowdown in Switzerland cannot be ruled out. Price stability cannot prevent trade policy-related uncertainty, but remains very important.
  • UK will reportedly be expected to pay a fee to guarantee UK companies access to a EUR 150bln EU weapons fund, according to the FT citing diplomats.

FX

  • DXY is nursing some of its recent losses after retreating amid the broad risk-on sentiment on Wall St. Price action during the European morning has been rather contained, with the index in a 99.43-99.89 range at the time of writing. Sentiment today has been boosted by reports that China is considering exempting some US goods from tariffs as costs increase.
  • EUR gave back some of the prior day's gains after hitting resistance just shy of the 1.1400 handle as the greenback regained composure. EUR/USD resides in a 1.1315-1.1394 intraday range.
  • JPY breached the 143.00 level to the upside which was facilitated by a rebound in the dollar and the positive risk appetite, while there were also some suggestions of Gotobi demand, whilst a flight out of safe-havens were seen on reports that China is said to consider exempting some US goods from tariffs as costs increase. Tokyo CPI data saw an acceleration, but failed to lift the JPY.
  • GBP faded some of Thursday's advances and eventually gave up the 1.3300 status as the Dollar picked up. Little reaction was also seen this morning to the substantial beat in UK Retail Sales, which was stronger-than-expected. On the trade front, UK Chancellor Reeves said she understands US concerns on trade imbalances, especially in China and they don't always agree with the US on policy prescriptions but is confident a trade deal can be done.
  • Antipodeans are both subdued amid the upticks in the Dollar and overall cautious risk tone amid the uncertain trade environment, whilst markets were closed on both sides of the Tasman for ANZAC Day.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2066 vs exp. 7.2898 (Prev. 7.2098).

Fixed Income

  • USTs are flat in what has been a rangebound morning thus far as traders digest the latest Bloomberg reports on China, which suggest China is said to consider exempting some US goods from tariffs as costs increase. UST futures rate in a narrow 111.02+ to 111.09 range at the time of writing; docket ahead is thin.
  • German debt is taking a breather after steadily climbing to just shy of the 132.00 level, whilst a slew of ECB commentary failed to trigger much price action. In terms of a recent ECB commentary on tariffs, ECB rhetoric leans towards an initial disinflationary narrative around tariffs, with Lagarde calling them a negative demand shock and noting the net inflation impact remains unclear. Knot flagged that a 25% US tariff could shave 0.3ppts off EZ growth.
  • Gilts are conforming to price action across peers despite little notable move seen from the above-forecast UK retail sales metrics. On the trade front, UK Chancellor Reeves said she understands US concerns on trade imbalances, especially in China and they don't always agree with the US on policy prescriptions but is confident a trade deal can be done. Gilt Jun'24 futures currently reside around the middle of a 92.90-93.14 range.

Commodities

  • The crude complex has been choppy, trading on either side of the unchanged mark. Early morning sentiment was boosted by reports that China is to consider exempting some US goods from tariffs as costs increase. Around the European cash open, some modest pressure was seen in the complex, but the downside has since stabilised. Brent'Jun 25 currently trading within a USD 66.48-67.11/bbl range.
  • Precious metals hold a negative bias, with losses in spot gold more pronounced vs peers, due to the positive risk tone and relatively stronger Dollar. XAU currently towards the lower end of a USD 3,287.16-3,370.79/oz range.
  • Base metals are entirely in the red, with losses driven by the relatively stronger Dollar and potentially due to the conflicting commentary of US-China trade talks. 3M LME Copper currently trading in a USD 9,359.5-9,458.8/t range.
  • UK's Unite said TotalEnergies (TTE FP) workers balloted for strike action and that around 50 Unite members based on the Elgin Franklin and North Alwyn platforms are involved.
  • Iranian oil minister said Tehran will sign USD 4bln agreement with Russian companies to develop seven oil fields, via state TV.
  • ExxonMobil (XOM) reports flaring event at Joliet, Illinois refinery (275k BPD).

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • "Haaretz citing sources: No significant progress in the negotiations of the exchange deal between Hamas and Israel so far", according to Al Jazeera
  • China, Russia, and Iran IAEA representatives met with the IAEA Director General on Thursday and had in-depth communication on how the IAEA can play its role in serving the political and diplomatic settlement process of the Iranian nuclear issue.
  • US is poised to offer Saudi Arabia an over USD 100bln arms package during President Trump’s visit to the kingdom in May.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said the US and Russia are moving in the right direction towards the deal.
  • NATO Secretary General Rutte said he had a good meeting with US President Trump and discussed Ukraine, while he does not know if Russian President Putin wants peace but added that something is on the table for Russia-Ukraine and the ball is in Russia's court. Furthermore, Rutte said it is not accurate that the US pressured Ukraine to accept a deal that favours Russia.

Geopolitics: Other

  • "AFP quotes Pakistani official: overnight exchange of fire on border with India", via Sky News Arabia.

US Event Calendar

  • 10:00 am: Apr F U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 50.5, prior 50.8

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Back from Luxembourg and last night stayed up late to watch the final episode of the latest series of "The White Lotus", one of the most famous dramas of the last few years. If you ever think your life is going through a tough patch please watch this program as many of these guys have some serious issues!!!

At times the series was so uncomfortable that it was a relief to get back to markets and to trade wars. However for now markets continue to recover with US assets in particular catching up on lost performance after the recent normalisation of policy from the US administration. My view is that the damage to US exceptionalism will be longer lasting but that it’s understandable that there’ll be a relief recovery after the US has come back from the brink policy wise. It’s also worth noting that before Liberation Day the Mag-7 were notably underperforming, especially since DeepSeek’s arrival onto the scene and a generally disappointing Q4 earnings season for the group. See my CoTD from yesterday here for more on this. How the Mag-7 perform from here will dictate a lot of the US exceptionalism trade.

We had the latest taste of this with Alphabet’s earnings yesterday evening. Google’s parent delivered a decent revenue and earnings beat, mostly driven by its search advertising business, and announced a 5% dividend increase. Its shares rose by close to 5% in post-market trading, following on a +2.37% gain in the regular session. S&P 500 (+0.51%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.62%) futures are trading higher overnight helped by these results. Next stop for the Mag-7 will be the releases from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple on Wednesday and Thursday next week. So a big couple of days ahead next week. Interestingly the FT have just broken a story as we go to print saying that Apple plans to shift the assembly of all US-sold iPhones to India as soon as next year. This is a big move away from China and shows how the geopolitics are shifting. It's a big win for India.

As trade and geopolitics are reshaping, for now investors are becoming more relaxed about the near-term outlook with few signs of deteriorating data as yet and some dovish comments from Fed officials yesterday, which reassured investors that the Fed would still cut rates if the labour market deteriorated. So collectively, that helped the S&P 500 (+2.03%) to post a third consecutive gain for the first time since Liberation Day. And in another sign that market stress was easing, the VIX index (-1.98pts) fell to its lowest since the April 2 tariff announcements, closing at 26.47pts.

Those comments from Fed officials really helped to support the market yesterday, as they were notably more dovish than Chair Powell, who’d sounded a lot more concerned about inflation. For instance, Fed Governor Waller repeated his previous view that tariffs just represented a one-time price effect, and said that if he saw “a significant drop in the labor market, then the employment side of the mandate, I think, is important that we step in.” Earlier, we also heard from Cleveland Fed President Hammack, who said that if they had “clear and convincing data by June, then I think you’ll see the committee move if we know which way is the right way to move at that point in time”. So that was seen as opening the possibility of a rate cut sooner than expected, and futures moved to price in 85bps of cuts by the December meeting, up +6.0bps on the day. And in turn, Treasuries saw a strong rally, with the 10yr yield (-6.7bps) falling back to 4.32%, marking its third consecutive decline.

Aside from those remarks, the other good news yesterday was that the labour market appeared to remain in decent shape for the time being. For instance, the weekly initial jobless claims were at 222k over the week ending April 19, in line with expectations. Moreover, that was completely in line with where they’ve been over recent weeks, having oscillated between 216k-225k for the last 8 consecutive weeks now. So yet again, there was no obvious sign that layoffs were increasing, and we even saw continuing claims (for the week ending April 12) fall back to 1.841m (vs. 1.869m expected), which was their lowest since late-January.

All that helped to spur a strong market rally, with most US assets continuing to unwind their post-Liberation Day moves. For instance, the S&P 500 (+2.03%) posted a third consecutive gain, and it was actually the first time since February 2023 that the index has managed three consecutive gains of more than +1% a day. Tech stocks led the advance, with the Magnificent 7 (+2.94%) now up by +9.67% over the last three sessions.

When it came to the latest on tariffs, the most notable headline was Trump suggesting that his administration has been talking with China on trade. This came in contrast to comments from China officials earlier in the day, who said that there were no trade negotiations currently happening and that the US should revoke its unilateral tariffs if they wanted to start trade talks. Overnight Bloomberg are reporting that China is considering carving out exemptions to its tariffs on US goods given the stress it's causing in some areas. So whatever officials say there seems to be movement on both sides to pull back from the most extreme position of the last few weeks.

In terms of other trade talks, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the US and South Korea could reach an “agreement of understanding” as soon as next week. This followed similar comments earlier in the week on progress in talks with India and added to the sense that the US is keen to announce some agreements soon, even if these represent only rough outlines of the eventual deals.

Back in Europe, markets also put in a decent performance for the most part, which was similarly supported by more robust data than expected. In particular, the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany unexpectedly rose to a 9-month high of 86.9 in April (vs. 85.2 expected). Fiscal expansion plans must be helping. Moreover, the expectations component only saw a modest pullback to 87.4 (vs. 85.0 expected), thus avoiding the sharp drop that was widely expected.

That backdrop helped to support European assets across the board, with the STOXX 600 (+0.36%) posting a modest gain by the close. It also meant that the index is now up just over 10% from its low on April 9, just before Trump announced the 90-day tariff extension. In the meantime, sovereign bonds also put in a strong performance, with yields on 10yr bunds (-5.0bps), OATs (-7.2bps) and BTPs (-8.4bps) all coming down. And that got further support from ECB officials, particularly as Olli Rehn said that they shouldn’t rule out a larger cut, and chief economist Philip Lane said “there’s no reason to say we’re always going to do the default 25”.

In Asia, Japanese markets are the best performers with the Nikkei (+1.83%) and the Topix (+1.37%) trading sharply higher after the Japanese government unveiled a package of emergency measures to counter the impact of tariffs. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+1.36%) and KOSPI (+1.02%) are performing well. Mainland Chinese stocks are a little more subdued with the CSI (+0.30%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.15%) only a touch higher. Even with the Apple news mentioned above, Indian stocks (-0.90%) are lower as tensions are very elevated with Pakistan at the moment around Kashmir. Meanwhile, Australian markets are closed for a holiday.

Early morning data showed that Tokyo CPI grew more than expected, rising to a two-year high of +3.5% y/y in April (v/s +3.3% expected) amid a recovery in private spending. It followed a +2.9% increase the prior month. Core CPI rose +3.4% y/y in April (v/s +3.2% expected) after advancing +2.4% the previous month thus increasing speculation over more interest rate hikes by the BOJ.

To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for April. Elsewhere, we’ll get UK retail sales for March. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the BoE’s Greene.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 08:29

Intercontinental Exchange: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in March

Calculated Risk -

From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Improved Seasonally in March but Continue to Trend Modestly Higher
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) ... today released its March 2025 First Look, which reveals that while delinquency rates edged up slightly year over year (YoY), they remain below pre-pandemic levels.

The ICE First Look reports on month-end delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment statistics sourced from its loan-level database, which covers a majority of the U.S. mortgage market.

Key takeaways from this month’s findings include:

• While serious delinquencies (SDQs) also improved seasonally, they are up 14% (+60K) YoY, with the rise driven entirely by FHA delinquencies, which increased by +63K YoY.

• Higher SDQs, along with the lifting of a VA foreclosure moratorium, fueled a modest bump in foreclosure inventory and sales, which both rose annually for the first time in nearly two years.

• Disaster events, such as hurricanes and wildfires, have led to YoY delinquency increases across several states, including Florida (+44 bps), South Carolina (+17 bps), Georgia (+14 bps) and California (+10 bps).

• Monthly prepayment activity, measured by single-month mortality, jumped to 0.59% – a +30.4% increase over February and the highest level of prepayment activity since November.
emphasis added
ICE Mortgage Delinquency RateClick on graph for larger image.

Here is a table from ICE.

The Wile E. Coyote Recession

Zero Hedge -

The Wile E. Coyote Recession

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

So where are corporate profits going to come from as globalization, price-gouging, planned obsolescence, shrinkflation and immiseration run out of rope?

We all know there's a time lag between the moment Wile E. Coyote runs off the cliff at full speed and the moment he realizes there's nothing but thin air beneath his feet. His expression in the second before he begins his descent communicates surprise, fear and a woeful awareness of impending impact with unforgiving ground.

This is an apt description of the present moment. The economy has already run off the cliff, but we haven't yet experienced that second of realization that there's nothing but thin air below.

We can call this the Wile E. Coyote Recession, as there is a time lag of around one quarter between the moment we left the cliff edge and the moment we start falling. The economy has momentum, as what's in transit and in the warehouses is already in the pipeline. But now that Deglobalization has disrupted supply chains, once what's in the pipeline has been distributed, the new realities start playing out.

Legions of economists and financial pundits are claiming to measure the odds of a recession. This is akin to Wile E. Coyote attempting to measure his odds of catching the Roadrunner in mid-air: the recession is already a matter of gravity.

Similar prognostications are being issued about the stock market, which depends on many factors, but the one that looms largest is corporate profits. If profits rise, this justifies higher stock valuations. If profits fall sharply, then stock valuations will adjust downward.

Two charts reveal the primary sources of soaring corporate profits: globalization from 2001 to 2024, and profiteering from 2020 to 2025.

Here we see that corporate profits were in the $700 billion to $800 billion range all through one of the greatest booms in American history, 1995 to 2000. This was sufficient to spark an economic boom and a booming stock market.

Then globalization kicked into high gear in 2001 with China's entry into the WTO (World Trade Organization). As corporations rushed to offshore production. profits soon tripled to the $2.2 trillion - $2.4 trillion range, a range that held steady through the 2010-2019 boom in GDP and stocks.

The Covid pandemic lockdown triggered a mini-crash which was reversed by unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus. In the span of a few years, corporate profits nearly doubled. Since globalization had been a force for two decades, this extraordinary rise can't be attributed to that factor.

The reality was much uglier, and so we don't dare discuss it in polite company. Corporations boosted profits not by increasing productivity or generating higher quality goods and services; they boosted profits by:

1. profiteering / price-gouging

2. Shrinkflation

3. Crapification of goods and services (a.k.a. planned obsolescence)

4. Immiseration: reducing the quality of standard services to force consumers to "upgrade to premium," and forcing consumers to agree to subscription services via mafia-type extortion.

With globalization reversing and prices / inflation set to rise as consumers run out of savings and credit, what happens to corporate profits going forward? As for jacking up profiteering, planned obsolescence, shrinkflation and immiseration / extortion, these strategies have already been pushed to 11 (recall the dial stops at 10).

What's next--a can of tuna the thickness of a slice of bread? A cereal box so thin it can no longer be stood up on a shelf? Shrinkflation has already reached absurd extremes, and there isn't much left to squeeze out of this gimmick.

As for immiseration, that's been pushed to the limits of human endurance as well. Once the reverse wealth effect and layoffs start taking a toll on consumers' incomes and willingness to spend, the most miserable services will be the first ones to be axed.

So where are corporate profits going to come from as globalization, price-gouging, planned obsolescence, shrinkflation and immiseration run out of rope? Maybe corporate profits will experience a Wile E. Coyote type impact with reality as gravity takes hold.

Note that if corporate profits had kept pace with inflation since 2002, they would be around $1.26 trillion annually, not $4.3 trillion. Maybe reversion will re-align corporate profits with inflation since 2001.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 08:05

Germany Downgrades Growth Outlook, Now Expects Recession For Record 3rd Year, Blames Trump

Zero Hedge -

Germany Downgrades Growth Outlook, Now Expects Recession For Record 3rd Year, Blames Trump

Entering 2025, Germany's economic situation had never been worse: following a 6th consecutive GDP contraction in Q4, the country which was once Europe's growth dynamo, has contracted for 6 consecutive quarters, the longest recessionary stretch in modern German history (since its 1989 reunification).

But if anyone had hoped that the recent German pro-debt "revolution" in which Berlin eliminated its long-standing "debt brake" and unleashed an unlimited, debt-funded "defense" spending spree courtesy of an anti-democratic, fiscal stimulus putsch, which was rammed through in the final days of the outgoing government (even as the top political party in the new government campaigned on precisely the opposite plaform) meant that Germany would finally record some modest growth, will be very disappointed.

Earlier today, the German government slashed its economic growth forecast yet again, and now sees stagnation in 2025 instead of a 0.3% expansion as its had previously. The reason: why blame Trump of course, or as Reuters put it, "uncertainty from global trade disputes is set to hobble growth and dampen investment."

Exports are expected to fall by 2.2% this year, following a 1.1% decline in 2024. Next year, exports are expected to rise by 1.3%, but they won't since by then most German export markets will be in an even worse recession. Earlier this month, German economic institutes cut their growth forecast for this year to 0.1% from the 0.8% expected in September, taking into consideration initial U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminium and cars.

Germany was the only G7 economy that failed to grow for the last two years, and the tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump could put Europe's largest economy on track for a third year without growth for the first time in history.

Only, it's not really Trump. Germany's energy intensive, export-driven economy was already struggling with high energy costs and weak global demand for its products as foreign companies - mostly China - chipped away at its competitiveness, and destroyed demand for German cars.

And while the US may or may not have stagflation (spoiler alert: it won't), Germany is now in it, with the government forecasting sticky inflation falling to 2% this year and then to 1.9% next year, down from 2.2% last year, at a time when the economy is contracting.  At the same time, economic weakness will take its toll on the labour market, with the unemployment rate expected to go up to 6.3% this year from 6.0% last year, before falling to 6.2% in 2026.

In other words, the definition of stagflation.

While announcing the figures, Economy Minister Robert Habeck called for the European Union and the U.S. to find a solution on trade but also for the EU to prepare countermeasures if needed.

"Now the German economy is once again facing major challenges due to the unpredictable trade policy of the United States," Habeck said in a written statement.

"Given the German economy's close integration into global supply chains and our high level of foreign trade openness, the new US protectionism could have significant direct and indirect effects on our economic growth," he said.

For 2026, the government now expects growth of 1%, down slightly from its January forecast of 1.1%, expecting some uptick under the incoming government of chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz. Spoiler alert: expect yet another downward revision, and a record 4th year of contraction in about a year's time.

And the cherry on top: just as Germany desperately needs a much weaker euro, the concurrent collapse in the dollar - which will unleash a surge in US exports just as the Mar-A-Lago accord had stipulated - means the euro will stay strong and only a fresh NIRP cycle by the ECB, one which sends the deposit rate from 2% currently back to sub zero, has any hope of kickstarting growth in what was once Europe's strongest economy and is now officially the sick man of Europe.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 06:55

10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

“Smart is good. Smart and lucky is better” It’s better to look stupid and learn than pretend and lose money. Once we know how something ended — a movie, a stock crash — we forget what it felt like to not know the outcome. The real challenge for investors is human behavior. Financial literacy matters, but it fades. (Big Think)

The Gen Z Lifestyle Subsidy: In the 2010s, Millennials got cheap Ubers. Today’s young people are getting free SuperGrok. (The Atlantic)

They Are Hot, Upwardly Mobile Jobs. Here’s Why They Are So Hard to Fill. Some of the fastest-growing careers lie in middle-skill roles like sterilizing surgical tools, yet too few people know about them (Wall Street Journal)

How Gen Z Became the Most Gullible Generation: The almighty algorithm is fueling conspiracy theories among young people and ruining their ability to tell fact from fiction on the internet. (Politico)

Inside Home Depot’s $20 Billion Secret Garden: The retail giant spends years developing plants and flowers. The goal: make shoppers better gardeners—and loyal customers. (Wall Street Journal)

• Can’t Look Away: The Case Against Social Media:  Through emotional testimonies and high-stakes legal battles, the film explores the tension between corporate profit and child safety, highlighting systemic failures that leave young users vulnerable. As families seek justice, Can’t Look Away underscores the urgent need for industry reform and serves as both a wake-up call about the dangers of social media—and a call to action to protect future generations. (Bloomberg) see also The Effect of Deactivating Facebook and Instagram on Users’ Emotional State: We estimate the effect of social media deactivation on users’ emotional state in two large randomized experiments before the 2020 U.S. election. People who deactivated Facebook for the six weeks before the election reported improvement in an index of happiness, depression, and anxiety. (NBER)

These Maps Show Federal Employees Work in Every Corner of America: These maps are based on newly available data from payroll records and offer a glimpse of the federal government’s 2.3 million or so civilian workers in March 2024, before the recent cuts. They show employees based in every state and in thousands of cities and small towns across the country, far beyond Washington, D.C. (New York Times)

Have they been here? When we look for extraterrestrials, we often peer into the depths of space. But alien life might be closer than you think. (Aeon)

How Trump Worship Took Hold in Washington: The President is at the center of a brazenly transactional ecosystem that rewards flattery and lockstep loyalty. (New Yorker)

‘It was a magical chemical balance’: How Monty Python and the Holy Grail became a comedy legend (BBC)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Jeff Becker, Chairman and CEO of Jennison Associates (a division of PGIM). The firm was founded in 1969. Prior to joining Jennison in 2016 as CEO, Becker was CEO of Voya Investment Management.

 

Trade Negotiations Take Time

Source: PIIE (Freund and McDaniel), Apollo Chief Economist

 

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The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Whatever Happened To The Green New Deal?

Zero Hedge -

Whatever Happened To The Green New Deal?

Authored by William Anderson via The Mises Institute,

Fresh off her 2018 upset New York Democratic congressional primary win, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (better known as AOC) and Massachusetts Sen. Edward Markey announced they were launching an ambitious legislative plan called the Green New Deal. 

While people who had a grounding in economic thought found this new initiative to be naïve at best and destructive at worst, nonetheless it has energized American progressives and other environmental true believers.

The goals for the GND were right out of Central Planning Fantasyland, something that is obvious from reading from the website:

The Green New Deal starts with a WWII-type mobilization to address the grave threat posed by climate change, transitioning our country to 100% clean energy by 2030. Clean energy does not include natural gas, biomass, nuclear power or the oxymoron “clean coal.”

The implementation of the Green New Deal will revive the economy, turn the tide on climate change and make wars for oil obsolete. This latter result, in turn, enables a 50% cut in the military budget, since maintaining bases all over the world to safeguard fossil fuel supplies and routes of transportation could no longer be justified. That military savings of several hundred billion dollars per year would go a very long way toward creating green jobs at home.

On top of that, the Green New Deal largely pays for itself in healthcare savings from the prevention of fossil fuel-related diseases, including asthma, heart attacks, strokes and cancer.

Moving to 100% clean energy means many more jobs, a healthier environment and far lower electric costs compared to continued reliance upon fossil fuels. Studies have shown that the technology already exists to achieve 100% clean energy by 2030. And we can speed up the transition by making polluters pay for the damage they’ve caused, starting with a robust carbon fee program.

The Green New Deal is not only a major step towards ending unemployment for good, but also a tool to fight the corporate takeover of our democracy and exploitation of the poor and people of color. Our transition to 100% clean energy will be based on community, worker and public ownership and democratic control of our energy system, rather than maximizing profits for energy corporations, banks and hedge funds.

We need to treat clean energy as a human right and a common good. We also need a just transition to provide resources to the low-income communities and communities of color most impacted by climate change.

The Green New Deal will provide assistance to workers and local communities that now have workers employed in the fossil fuel industry and to the developing world as it responds to climate-change damage caused by the industrial world.

The idea that, in five years, the entire grid will consist of electricity powered by windmills and solar panels, with more electricity being produced in 2030 than is currently generated using fuels such as coal and natural gas is preposterous on its face. However, the framers of the GND are not done, as they are promising a cornucopia of jobs and wealth:

The Green New Deal includes an Economic Bill of Rights, which ensures all citizens the right to employment through a Full-Employment Program that will create 20 million jobs by implementing a nationally funded, but locally controlled direct-employment initiative. We will replace unemployment offices with local employment offices offering public sector jobs that are “stored” in job banks in order to take up any slack in private sector employment.

The GND proponents believe they can accomplish a complete transition of America’s energy production by government fiat and through massive tax-fed subsidies. Of course, this kind of largesse needs legislation behind it and the true believers—led by AOC herself—settled on the infamous (and hilariously named) Inflation Reduction Act. In fact, AOC served as a cheerleader for what was the cornerstone measure of the Biden administration, one that supposedly would create nine million jobs and totally transform the US economy.

However, the promised transformation never occurred. Price inflation remained high, and none of the lofty goals came close to being reached, nor is there the remotest possibility that all of these utopian promises will be fulfilled five years from now. Forget those thousands of EV charging stations that were supposed to be built, or other promises that failed to get past the paper on which they were written. And there is good reason for why the GND and the Inflation Reduction Act have failed other than for the lack of political will.

Austrian economics offers the following explanation: one cannot ignore the issues behind economic calculation. More than a century ago, Ludwig von Mises warned in Socialism that the lack of a social mechanism built upon private property, profits and losses, and market prices would doom any socialist plans. As he noted in Bureaucracy, economic planning requires what he called a “common denominator” that would guide the planners:

In the capitalist system all designing and planning is based on the market prices. Without them all the projects and blueprints of the engineers would be a mere academic pastime. They would demonstrate what could be done and how. But they would not be in a position to determine whether the realization of a certain project would really increase material well-being or whether it would not, by withdrawing scarce factors of production from other lines, jeopardize the satisfaction of more urgent needs, that is, of needs considered more urgent by the consumers. The guide of economic planning is the market price. The market prices alone can answer the question whether the execution of a project P will yield more than it costs, that is, whether it will be more useful than the execution of other conceivable plans which cannot be realized because the factors of production required are used for the performance of project P.

The Green New Deal and its accompanying legislation—the Inflation Reduction Act—have been based upon the belief that government agents can identify problems and impose solutions by directing resources through command-and-control. While their system gives a nod to prices and private ownership, at best, the organizational structure would resemble what came out of Italy and Germany in the 1930s, or Fascism. Profits and market prices don’t guide that system; indeed, the organizers of the GND and the IRA see profits and market prices as hindrances to their plans, for they represent the capitalist scourge of placing profits above people.

Yet, as Mises noted, the system will grind to a near halt without the “common denominator” of market prices, and that is what we have seen. While New York Times columnist Ezra Klein laments the lack of progress made by the Biden administration to carry out its grandiose plans, it also is clear that he fails to understand the roots of that failure:

Delay has become the default setting of American government. The 2021 infrastructure law was supposed to pump hundreds of billions into roads, bridges, rural broadband, electric vehicle chargers. By 2024, few of its projects were finished or installed. That wasn’t because Biden or his team wanted to run for re-election on the backs of news releases rather than ribbon cuttings. But the administration didn’t make the changes necessary to deliver on a time frame the public could feel. Many members of Biden’s staff now bitterly regret it. That includes Sullivan, who described his experience as “profoundly radicalizing.”

“Whether it’s infrastructure or submarines or energy generation or transmission lines or chip fabs — it is crazy the extent to which we have clogged up our delivery,” Sullivan told me. “Part of it is laws and regulations. Part of it is the self-deterrence of caution. Part of it is litigation. Part of it is complacency. Part of it is bureaucracy. But what I encountered in my four years as national security adviser was a constant and growing set of obstacles to getting anything done fast. It was a huge frustration. Huge.”

Indeed, the vast regulatory system that is the very pride of the progressive movement of the past 120 years plays a part in the inability of governments to carry out many of their grandiose schemes. But it is much more than just regulation; without market prices and the prospects of profits and losses, the government planners tasked with implementing these programs are unable to make rational economic decisions. When their own fiat decision-making process runs headlong into the regulatory system that was created to deter private enterprise from building profitable projects, what remains is a wealth-killing stalemate.

The Green New Deal has not failed because of a lack of political will or because government regulators were too good at their jobs. It failed because it is based upon a socialistic model of command-and-control akin to the former Soviet Union. 

Mises told us that very thing 100 years ago and world events since then have only confirmed he was telling the truth.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 06:30

India Throws Trump A Harley-Davidson Olive Branch In Trade Talks

Zero Hedge -

India Throws Trump A Harley-Davidson Olive Branch In Trade Talks

President Donald Trump hinted overnight at a potential easing of the trade war with Beijing, suggesting that the current 145% tariffs on Chinese goods "could come down substantially"—though he added, "but it won't be zero." The trade news extended beyond China as Vice President Vance continued his four-day visit to India, raising new hopes for a swift trade agreement. 

According to Bloomberg, citing sources, the Narendra Modi-led administration may have extended an olive branch to the Trump administration by potentially lowering trade barriers for U.S. motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson, specifically for motorbikes with engine capacities over 750cc or more in India. 

Here's more color on the Harley-Davidson olive branch

The offer aims to tear down tariff barriers largely for the iconic American bike maker Harley-Davidson Inc. and will expand on India's budget-time concessions when duties on motorcycles up to 1600cc were slashed to 40% from 50% earlier. The market for such high-capacity motorcycles in India is a tiny fraction of the nearly 16 million units sold every year, making this concession relatively painless for the local industry.

India is also willing to extend a similar zero-for-zero duty arrangement to auto parts, another category where it sees export competitiveness and minimal domestic resistance, people familiar said.

The Harley-Davidson olive branch also comes after Trump slapped 26% reciprocal tariffs on India, but soon after, paused for 90 days so both sides could hammer out trade deals. Still, the baseline 10% tariff remains. 

On Monday, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and VP Vance said trade talks between both countries made "significant" progress.

On Tuesday, VP Vance also touted progress toward a U.S.-India trade deal while speaking in the northwestern Indian city of Jaipur. 

"Both of our governments are hard at work on a trade agreement built on shared priorities, like creating new jobs, building durable supply chains and achieving prosperity for our workers," VP Vance said, adding, "In our meeting yesterday, Prime Minister Modi and I made very good progress on all of those points, and we're especially excited to formally announce that America and India have officially finalized the terms of reference for the trade negotiations. I think this is a vital step toward realizing President Trump and Prime Minister Modi's vision because it sets a roadmap toward a final deal between our nations. I believe there is much America and India can accomplish together."

VP Vance also noted: "Americans want further access to Indian markets. This is a great place to do business, and we want to give our people more access to this country. And Indians, we believe, will thrive from greater commerce in the United States. This is very much a win-win partnership. It certainly will be far into the future." 

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 04:15

Liberal Media Ditching "Food Deserts" Term For Far More Inflammatory-Sounding "Food Apartheid"

Zero Hedge -

Liberal Media Ditching "Food Deserts" Term For Far More Inflammatory-Sounding "Food Apartheid"

Having worn out the use of 'Hitler' over the last decade, the liberal media is searching for its next sensationalist descriptor for an otherwise innocuous "injustice" deserving of unlimited taxpayer dollars.

This go-round, the media is replacing their loaded "food desert" term with "food apartheid". Because, hey, when there isn't a World War II or full blown civil rights style crisis on the media's hands to all them to argue their ideologies...why not just invent one? 

"The Associated Press periodically tweaks its style guide—often to make its left‑wing activism more subtle. Progressive activists do the same, inventing controversies out of thin air. Where we once spoke of “food deserts,” the Radical Left now insists on “food apartheid”—and expects us to pretend this contrived concept is happening in Seattle," Jason Rantz of 770 KTTH argues.

Rantz points out in an article out this morning that Seattle Times columnist Naomi Ishisaka pushes the idea that racism is behind the lack of quality grocery stores in areas like south Seattle compared to whiter neighborhoods.

“While ‘food desert’ might lead people to think there’s something inevitable... ‘food apartheid’ argues that these inequities are the result of intentional choices, and can be changed,” she writes.

True to her unwavering BLM alignment, Ishisaka sees racism in every disparity. Fewer stores in Black neighborhoods? “These inequities... contribute to health disparities that fall along racial and socio-economic lines,” she claims—suggesting a broad, selective conspiracy that oddly excludes Asians and poor whites.

Naomi Ishisaka blames “policies such as redlining and urban renewal” for underinvestment in Black neighborhoods—but sidesteps the more obvious factor: crime.

She even concedes that near her Rainier Beach home, “we have two Safeways, the closest of which has been the site of numerous incidents of gun violence,” unwittingly highlighting the real deterrent.

Grocery stores operate on thin margins and avoid areas where safety is a liability. That basic economic reality seems lost on Ishisaka, blinded by ideology.

The irony is rich: the same activists crying “food apartheid” also chant “ACAB,” oppose policing, and undermine public safety—then wonder why businesses won’t invest, Rantz says

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 20:05

Zeldin Demands Mexico Act On Cross-Border Sewage

Zero Hedge -

Zeldin Demands Mexico Act On Cross-Border Sewage

Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics,

Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin’s trip Tuesday to this scenic family-friendly coastal tourist destination was all business and at times quite unpleasant, considering the noxious fumes he was there to discuss.

Zeldin visited this border city on Earth Day to try to put an end to a decades-long environmental catastrophe: Billions of gallons of sewage and industrial chemicals from Mexico have flowed into the Pacific Ocean in Southern California, closing local beaches and sickening U.S. Navy SEALs who train in the water on nearby beaches.

The cross-border pollution has been going on for decades with Congress addressing the disgusting effluence piece-meal, throwing more than $653 million at the problem over the last five years alone even as the contaminant levels surged.

The Tijuana River runs close to the coast in Mexico then flows into California, through Navy-owned land, and dumps into the ocean. In recent years, Tijuana’s population and industry have boomed, overwhelming its aging wastewater treatment plants and pumping stations and increasing the levels of toxins, including industrial chemicals, bacteria, and trash, in the river and nearby coastal waters. Scientists and researchers say the sewage doesn’t only contaminate the water – it also vaporizes into the air and they have detected high levels of harmful gases in the area.

Enter President Trump, who with his “drill-baby-drill” refrain may seem an unlikely environmental hero. But the president has been intensely focused on the border and has demanded that Mexico help stop the flow of illegal immigrants, drugs, and now human waste into U.S. territory and waters. During Trump’s first term, he usually either touted progress on his “big, beautiful border wall” or railed against Democrats efforts to defund it – without mentioning the sewage pouring into California coastal zones.

Now the problem is “top of mind” for Trump, Zeldin said. 

Zeldin, a former Congressman from New York who ran an unsuccessful campaign for governor in 2022, spent his day discussing various options to expedite solutions. He met the previous evening with his Mexican environmental counterparts and left the meeting hopeful about their commitment, but he also didn’t mince words.

I’m a New Yorker, and if I say this in a way that offends people from Southern California, I’m sorry. But I know my counterparts in Mexico are listening,” Zeldin told reporters after a forum with a bipartisan group of congressman and local leaders. “What’s going on inside of the American who just cares about having it resolved – they don’t give a shit about how it gets done, as long as this crisis is over.”

Earlier in the day, while touring a U.S. plant that treats sewage as a secondary facility to one in Mexico, Darrell Issa, longtime San Diego-area GOP congressman, recounted an alarming story. He recalled one Border Patrol agent telling him the Tijuana River water is so toxic that his boots started disintegrating after stepping into it while doing his job.

Rep. Mike Levin, a Democrat representing northern San Diego County, later told reporters that his wife’s nephew who had trained as a SEAL near the border had been diagnosed with cancer in his 20s. The family can’t prove that his training in the deeply polluted water caused the cancer, but they have their suspicions. Other Navy vets have recently started dubbing the sewage outflows, located roughly one mile from their training waters, the “next Camp Lejeune.”

The Navy is considering relocating its Coronado training site for SEAL candidates after documenting 1,168 cases of acute gastrointestinal illnesses of its recruits from 2019 to 2023. The pollution has sickened swimmers, surfers, lifeguards, and border patrol agents, closing California beaches near the border more often than they’ve been open over the last four years.

Zeldin, who took a helicopter tour of the polluted areas and met with Navy officials Tuesday, said American patience has run out. In the coming days, he will deliver Mexico a to-do list to resolve the environmental crisis and plans to issue a joint statement outlining concrete steps, which must happen “as fast as humanly possible.”

The actions must be “aggressively pursued with extreme urgency,” he stated.

During the tour of the U.S. wastewater treatment center, lawmakers and local officials explained that expanding that facility alone will only take care of roughly half the problem. The center can treat only a limited amount of raw sewage before releasing it directly into the ocean. Meanwhile, Mexican factories and people are dumping chemicals and trash into the Tijuana River itself.

The Mexican government, Zeldin said, must clean up the river and prevent its citizens from re-contaminating it. In 2022, Mexico committed $88 million to help remediate the pollution but still needs to designate the funds to several ongoing wastewater treatment projects and upgrades. One of those projects must be installing floodgates to collect trash in Tijuana, Zeldin said.

“They cannot view this as a U.S. problem just because their contamination reached U.S. soil,” he said. “We need Mexico to not just commit to all the projects that will stop the flow, but in order to actually finish this project, they’re going to [have to] commit to that final cleanup.”

The meetings on the issue so far have been productive, Zeldin stressed, noting that the relatively new administration of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has appeared receptive to working out a “strong collaborative relationship” and a course of action.

Zeldin, however, did not outline any enforcement actions and said he has not discussed the possibility of making Mexico’s action on the sewage problem a condition to a pending agreement to lift tariffs.

I haven’t had that conversation with anyone – that’s not something that I’ve heard,” he told RealClearPolitics. “But I wouldn’t read into that one way or the other.”

San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, a Republican challenging Levin for his congressional seat, has been the one sounding the alarm since the first days of the Trump administration. During Tuesday’s meeting with Zeldin and other lawmakers, Desmond suggested a far simpler solution than the complex set of wastewater upgrades and expansions on both sides of the border under consideration.

I’m happy to support the plant there, but – I’ll go out on a limb – I think we need to dam up the Tijuana River,” he said in the meeting, a video of which a reporter posted on X.com afterward. “That’s what everything’s being thrown into – mattresses, shopping carts, tires, diapers – everything that’s coming across the border.”

Desmond also expressed optimism that “real, tangible solutions” are on the way, but said he plans to continue keeping the pressure on Mexico.

I’m not letting up until we see results,” he said after the meeting. “Holding Mexico accountable is no longer optional – it’s urgent. Our beaches, our health, and our military demand it.”

Zeldin didn’t comment on Desmond’s proposal to dam the river, which would no doubt anger environmentalists who have complained for decades that the pollutants are harming the entire Tijuana Valley estuary, leading to mass deaths of its fish and other marine life and a reduction in biodiversity.

Doing so would also violate numerous environmental regulations. The estuary is one of just 30 that remain protected in North America and is recognized by the United Nations as coastal wetlands in need of these safeguards. Even so, Mexican factories and others continue to violate the protections and disregard regulations.

The bilateral solution will likely be complex, Zeldin said, but the status quo is unacceptable. The administrator then predicted that the U.S. and Mexican government would be celebrating putting the crisis in the “rearview mirror” by Earth Day 2026.

There’s no way that we are going to stand before the people of California and ask them to have more patience and just bear with all of us as we go through the next 10 or 20 or 30 years of being stuck in 12 feet of raw sewage and not getting anywhere,” he pledged.

As to why Trump is making the issue a priority now and why no other president, Democrat or Republican, over the last 25 years has successfully tackled it, Zeldin demurred.

“Look, I have plenty of thoughts as to missed opportunities in the past,” he told RCP. “But I’m not here to look backwards right now. I’m just looking forward.”

Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics' national political correspondent.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 19:40

Wash. State Instructor And PhD Student Arrested After Assaulting Student Wearing MAGA Hat

Zero Hedge -

Wash. State Instructor And PhD Student Arrested After Assaulting Student Wearing MAGA Hat

A Washington State University instructor and PhD student, Patrick Mahoney, was arrested after allegedly assaulting a student wearing a red “Take America Back” Trump 2024 hat, according to a police report obtained by The Jason Rantz Show on KTTH.

The victim, Jay Sani, said Mahoney grabbed his hat and threw it, then, along with another suspect, Gerald Hoff, “grabbed Sani and took him to the ground.”

The police report says: “Once on the ground, Mahoney grabbed Sani’s head and slammed it into the ground. Sani then moved his hands to approximately shoulder height and said something to the effect of he put his hands up to not make the fight worse.

Mahoney said to the officer who contacted him: “You know, you’re f**king wearing that hat, you wanted someone to f**king look at it, right?”

“I asked Mahoney what happened tonight. Mahoney said that he saw ‘ol’ boy’ walking around. Mahoney did not name Sani by name but said ‘I’ve seen this guy, f**king, on campus before. I know he’s like f**king Right Wing dude. He’s got a f**king, like, Make America Great Again hat.'”

According to police, Mahoney referred to Sani as “ol’ boy” and admitted to grabbing the hat, saying, “You know, you’re fking wearing that hat, you wanted someone to fking look at it, right?” He claimed Sani “body checked” him, prompting Mahoney to tackle and punch him “to Sani’s jaw.”

Both Mahoney and Gerald Hoff were arrested for assault, according to 770 KTTH. “WSU suspended and removed Mahoney from all classes he previously taught,” The Daily Evergreen reported.

Mahoney, described as a far-left activist, was suspended and removed from teaching duties. He has a history of union involvement and pro-Palestinian activism, including calls for a Gaza ceasefire.

The KTTH report says that Sani, who says he was bruised, condemned “how toxic the left has gotten.” In a Facebook post, he wrote, “To make it clear, I hate to say this, but i’m [sic] brown, but forget it. I’m an engineering student that wants to get the degree, and move on. So what if I like someone that you don’t like. We have the 1st amendment, and its not okay that just because you don’t like that person, I should be attacked for it. You had a chance in November to oust him, but you didn’t.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 19:15

Trump Says Baby Bonus For Moms "Sounds Like A Good Idea"

Zero Hedge -

Trump Says Baby Bonus For Moms "Sounds Like A Good Idea"

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump has signaled a willingness to issue a financial bonus to mothers when they give birth.

The president was asked by reporters on Tuesday whether he might consider “some kind of bonus” to women for having a child. The idea was first reported by The New York Times, which cited anonymous sources who said administration officials are looking into a financial reward to increase the U.S. birth rate.

“Sounds like a good idea to me,” Trump said in response before quickly moving on to another question. The president did not go into any other specifics about the alleged proposal.

Other administration officials have suggested they favor policies aimed at increasing U.S. birth rates amid decades of decline.

Earlier this year, Vice President JD Vance said during his first public speaking event as vice president that he wanted “more babies” being born in the United States, adding that American “society has failed to recognize the obligation that one generation has to another as a core part of living in a society.”

“We failed a generation not only by permitting a culture of abortion on demand, but also by neglecting to help young parents achieve the ingredients they need to lead a happy and meaningful life,” he said.

Special government employee Elon Musk, who heads the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), has repeatedly said that declining birth rates in the West could lead to a collapse of civilization.

“There’s a lot of things that I worry about. The birth rate is very low in almost every country and unless that changes, civilization will disappear. America had the lowest birth rate ever. That was last year. Humanity is dying,” the Tesla CEO told Fox News late last month.

In another warning, Musk wrote on Tuesday that “low birth rates will end civilization” in a post on X that was in response to posted graphs showing a decline.

Births in the United States rose slightly in 2024. 

Just more than 3.6 million births were reported for 2024, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention preliminary data released in March. That’s 22,250 more than the final tally of 2023 U.S. births, which was released on Tuesday.

However, the United States has seen an overall decline in fertility since the 1960s.

In 2023, the country hit a record low of 54.5 births per 1,000 females between the ages of 15 and 44, or a 3 percent drop from 2022’s figures, according to the CDC.

Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office said in January that it lowered its projections for the U.S. population in 30 years to 372 million residents, a 2.8 percent drop from last year, citing declining birth rates and less expected immigration.

The budget office last year had projected 383 million people living in the United States in 30 years.

The United States had an estimated 341 million residents on New Year’s Day and is expected to grow to 350 million people by year’s end.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 18:50

'Cuomo Lied, New Yorkers Died!' - Protesters Storm Stage At Mayor Candidate Forum

Zero Hedge -

'Cuomo Lied, New Yorkers Died!' - Protesters Storm Stage At Mayor Candidate Forum

As he continues his bid for the New York City mayor's office, scandal-plagued former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo was accosted by storm-staging protesters at a candidate forum on Wednesday evening. The young throng hurled profane insults at him, and condemned him for his deadly and dishonest mishandling of the Covid pandemic. Afterward, the organizer of the "Black Agenda for NYC" forum said it was a particular "disgrace" that some of the disrupters were white people.  

A denim-skirted protester, whose gender is far from certain, climbs to the stage to join others showering Cuomo with curses (Michael Nagle - New York Post)

Cuomo was in mid-sentence on the stage at Medgar Evers College in Brooklyn when the group of perhaps 10 protesters stormed the stage, some shouting "Fuck you, Cuomo!" They tried but failed to unfurl a long banner --  as NYPD officers wearing "Community Affairs" shirts quickly moved to intercept them. 

It appears at least one of the prominent words on the banners was "KILL." As they were ushered out of the auditorium, some of the protesters chanted "Cuomo Lied, New Yorkers Died!" That line of attack almost certainly refers to Cuomo's catastrophic bungling of New York's response to Covid-19, which struck during his tenure as governor. His administration was widely condemned for ordering nursing homes to accept Covid-positive patients who were discharging from hospitals -- a mandate linked to upwards of 15,000 deaths. The Cuomo regime was also accused of deliberately understating the number of those long-term-care-resident deaths by some 50%.  

Cuomo barely budged as the mayhem broke out and then engulfed him. When it subsided he said, “That’s part of the problem in this system, right? Too much politics, not enough substance, not enough discussion." Later, he said, "If I don’t get protested about something, it’s a slow day...A lot of these issues are contentious. People have different opinions and God bless.” Speaking of God, Cuomo resigned his governorship in August 2021 after at least 11 women filed various accusations of unwelcome sexual advances by the now-67-year-old -- from kisses to groping to creepy comments. 

A male protester and his unclassifiable, denim-skirted companion continue yelling as they're shoved out of the auditorium (Michael Nagle - New York Post)

At the podium, Henry Butler, the vice chair of the Brooklyn Democrats and organizer of the event -- and an endorser of Cuomo -- expressed disgust that white people would attempt to affect black people's opinions:  

“The clown show is over. One of the issues and problems with the Democratic Party, who claim to be a big tent party, is that if you don’t have a certain view, then they try to shout you down. And I think it’s a disgrace when I see a bunch of young, WHITE progressives trying to tell black people who we should vote for. Do not tell us who we should vote for -- we are educated, we know how to think for ourselves. We don't need you here telling us what we should be doing and how we should vote!"

Contrary to Butler's characterization, it appeared most of the protesters were black -- including the first ones to mount the stage. If he's blaming the white protesters for the actions of the black ones, that would seemingly contradict his assertion that black people "don't need [whites]...telling us what we should be doing." Regardless, his denunciation of the white presence predictably elicited loud cheers and applause from the crowd:

It's been a rough couple weeks for Cuomo. First, auditors reported that, under Cuomo, the state government poured $453 million into building an enormous stockpile of medical equipment essentially that went unused: Out of 247,343 medical devices purchased, the state wound up using only three pieces of equipment -- then left it to decay in warehouses the state rented to hold the horde. It's still sitting there five years after the pandemic arrived. 

On Monday, House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer sent a letter to US Attorney General Pam Bondi, renewing his committee's criminal referral urging that Cuomo be investigated for making false statements to Congress -- about the deadly nursing home scandal. The previous referral was ignored by the Biden administration. 

Several candidates are running for the Democratic nomination, but a recent poll has Cuomo well out in front at 45%, leading Socialist, Muslim, ethnic-Indian, Uganda-born, New-York-raised, failed rapper and Queens Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani, who's the choice of 22% of likely voters. However, he's surged from just 9% in January on a campaign centered on rent-freezes, free buses and free childcare funded in part by higher corporate taxes. Consistent with the messaging of the stage-stormers, he's also attacked Cuomo on his handling of Covid-19

If you enjoyed Wednesday night's spectacle, there's ample opportunity for more: The Democratic primary isn't until June 24; the general election is on Nov. 4.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 18:25

Trump's Illegal Migrant Hunt Digs Into The IRS and Social Security

Zero Hedge -

Trump's Illegal Migrant Hunt Digs Into The IRS and Social Security

Authored by Benjamin Weingarten via RealClearInvestigations,

Against fierce resistance, the Trump administration is enlisting the Internal Revenue Service and Social Security Administration in its crackdown on illegal immigration.

On April 7, the IRS signed an agreement with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement that alarmed progressive pro-immigration groups and like-minded advocates – and reportedly prompted the tax bureau’s acting chief to resign in protest. 

The deal allows ICE to request the tax return information of migrants who are not in this country legally. In recent days, as part of a push to encourage self-deportation, the Department of Homeland Security and Social Security Administration have also coordinated to strip benefits from otherwise inadmissible migrants granted parole during the Biden administration – a group posing national security concerns who have now had their parolee status revoked.

Information sharing across agencies is essential to identify who is in our country, including violent criminals," an unnamed senior DHS official told ABC News, while stressing the desire to “determine what public safety and terror threats may exist so we can neutralize them, scrub these individuals from voter rolls, as well as identify what public benefits these aliens are using at taxpayer expense.” 

Past administrations have largely avoided such information sharing, both because of turf-protecting impulses and privacy concerns. In the current climate, several immigrant advocacy groups have sued to thwart cooperation between the IRS and Department of Homeland Security, claiming that they are likely to violate taxpayer confidentiality laws. The critics assert that the new policy is aimed not at legitimately prosecuting individuals, but at identifying migrants as part of an effort to deport them en masse – or to pressure them into leaving on their own.

The controversy highlights the sometimes novel ways in which the Trump administration is seeking to break down walls between agencies to share data in pursuit of its policy goals – whether to combat illegal immigration, streamline government, or ensure election integrity – and resistance has come both from outside groups and from within the federal bureaucracy itself.

As RealClearInvestigations reported in 2022, the IRS and its partners, including the Social Security Administration, have been reluctant to share information with agencies like DHS pursuing non-citizens, in part on privacy grounds. The IRS has neglected to use its own enforcement powers, evidence suggests, because of a view that the benefits to working illegal migrants – in their tens of billions of dollars in tax contributions annually – outweigh the costs to Americans victimized by identity theft by migrants using their stolen Social Security numbers.

But the Trump administration has pledged to mine and modernize the government’s data systems to eliminate “information silos” and help combat waste, fraud, and abuse.

The Social Security Administration is ground zero for these efforts. Millions of non-citizens have been issued Social Security numbers in recent years after entering the country and being legally authorized to work. The Trump DHS said in a January 2025 statement that the “Biden-Harris Administration abused the humanitarian parole program to indiscriminately allow 1.5 million migrants to enter our country.”

This month, DHS revoked the temporary parolee status of over 6,300 migrants either on the FBI’s terror watch list or with FBI criminal records. The federal government had issued all of them Social Security numbers. The Trump administration asserted that hundreds of them were collecting Medicaid. Dozens were also receiving unemployment insurance. Some obtained student loans.

On April 8, the Social Security Administration rendered this group ineligible for benefits and legal employment. It moved them to an internal “Ineligible Master File” – previously known as the “Death Master File,” since it contained rolls of dead former beneficiaries.

The Trump administration acted despite internal pushback, including from a senior Social Security IT official who appears to have been forcibly removed from his position in light of his opposition.

“President Trump promised mass deportations, and by removing the monetary incentive for illegal aliens to come and stay, we will encourage them to self-deport,” White House spokesperson Liz Huston told RCI. “He is delivering on his promise he made to the American people.”

Some 92,000 additional illegal migrants with criminal convictions but with Social Security numbers reportedly make up the next group to be shifted to the Ineligible Master File.

Former Biden administration Social Security Administration head Martin O’Malley expressed outrage. “If without due process, Trump and [Elon] Musk can unlawfully ‘disappear’ or ‘digitally murder’ anyone who legally entered our country, then they can do it to anyone already legally here,” said the former Maryland governor.

O’Malley’s acting successor at the Social Security Administration, like her IRS counterpart, left the agency in February amid efforts by DOGE to access “sensitive government records.”

During a recent interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier, Elon Musk and DOGE staffers suggested that they are also seeking to root out the massive fraud they believe plagues Social Security. Musk’s colleagues said 40% of phone calls to Social Security offices come from fraudsters trying to change direct deposit information to steal legitimate recipients’ funds. They also said that they had found that millions of people listed as over the age of 120 were marked as alive within the Social Security database, affirming 2023 findings from Social Security’s inspector general. Reports and independent analyses suggest at least a percentage of the dead have been issued Social Security benefits.

The X owner on loan to the federal government says fraudsters have exploited the fact that government “databases don’t talk to each other.” As an example, Musk said some seek disability or unemployment insurance using the Social Security number of a person marked as living in the Social Security Administration’s systems but actually dead. Such fraud “is happening all the time at scale,” he asserted.

Social Security’s inspector general reported around $72 billion in “improper payments” over the period from 2015-2022. DOGE has reported that some 1.3 million non-citizens issued Social Security numbers during the Biden years were enrolled in Medicaid. Only certain classes of non-citizens may be eligible for such benefits.

The government efficiency agency has also identified nearly $400 million in fraudulent unemployment claims since 2020 – though it is unknown if any significant portion of these claims went to non-citizens.

In March, a federal judge issued a temporary restraining order, limiting DOGE’s efforts to access Social Security Administration data, asserting that it was “essentially engaged in a fishing expedition … in search of a fraud epidemic.” On April 17, the judge granted the plaintiffs a preliminary injunction prohibiting DOGE members from accessing Social Security systems or records containing personally identifiable information – a ruling the Trump administration has indicated it will appeal.

The White House has argued that while federal law prohibits illegal migrants from obtaining taxpayer-funded benefits, “numerous administrations have acted to undermine the principles and limitations directed by the Congress through that law.” Such benefits in turn serve as a “magnet” for and “fuel” illegal immigration in the administration’s view. 

Consequently, on April 15, President Trump issued an executive order, building on a prior order “Ending Taxpayer Subsidization of Open Borders,” aimed at “Preventing Illegal Aliens from Obtaining Social Security Act Benefits.” Such benefits include not only Social Security, but Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment insurance, and myriad other social programs.

A recent analysis by Center for Immigration Studies shows that 59% of households headed by illegal immigrants use at least one welfare program – and are “especially likely to receive food benefits and Medicaid relative to native households.”

The Trump administration released a fact sheet in conjunction with its latest order citing a study by the Federation for American Immigration Reform indicating that taxpayers spend “at least $182 billion annually to cover the costs incurred by the presence of 20 million illegal aliens and their children, which includes $66.4 billion in Federal expenses plus an additional $115.6 billion in state and local expenses” – vastly outweighing their contributions including through paying taxes.

The order directs all impacted agencies not only to take relevant measures to ensure ineligible aliens are not receiving benefits, but also to prioritize civil or administrative enforcement actions – while beefing up the full-time fraud prosecution teams across such agencies in conjunction with the Justice Department. The order also calls for the Social Security Administration to investigate earnings reports for those 100 or older with names mismatching those on file at the administration and, when warranted, to refer matters to relevant law enforcement agencies.

The Earnings Suspense File

A major area of Social Security fraud pertaining to immigration is found in the agency’s Earnings Suspense File.

This file records the earnings of employees whose W-2 wage and tax statements have names and Social Security numbers that do not match official records. For decades the file was relatively small and mostly included women whose names had changed with marriage. That change followed the passage of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, which required those seeking employment to fill out I-9 forms attesting to citizenship or work-authorized immigrant status, and to provide corroborating documentation and a valid Social Security number.

This effort failed to deter masses of illegal immigrants from entering the country and working – in turn contributing billions of dollars to entitlement programs in tax dollars, but doing so through stealing or fabricating Americans’ Social Security numbers, including those held by the elderly and children. The Social Security Administration estimated two decades ago that up to 75% of illegal migrants working on the books used fake or stolen Social Security numbers.

A 2018 Treasury inspector general report documented more than 1.3 million cases of employment-related identity theft from 2011-2016, and, in 2017 alone, 1.2 million cases in which illegal migrants used Social Security numbers that belonged to someone else or were fabricated. 

Reflecting this identification theft, the total amount of wages recorded in the Earnings Suspense File rose from under $80 billion in the 1980s to nearly $190 billion in the 1990s and then multiplied tenfold over the ensuing two decades, to $1.9 trillion in wages by the end of the first Trump administration. During the Biden years, as millions of additional illegal migrants entered the country, that number would again surge upwards to $2.3 trillion by September 2024. 

For comparison with those numbers, workers all told generated $9.2 trillion of earnings taxable under Social Security – up to the individual maximum of $147,000 – during 2022, the latest year available.

Boon or Bane?

Some see the work of illegal migrants as a major boon to the economy. In a June 2024 report, the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, which favors an “equitable and sustainable tax system,” estimated that in 2022, some 10.9 million illegal workers generated $373 billion in earnings, and paid $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes. The Federation for American Immigration Reform, an advocate for limited immigration, has challenged that analysis, and presented its own, indicating that a far higher estimated illegal migrant population of 15.5 million as of early 2022, earning lower wages than the competing analysis suggested, generated a net cost to taxpayers of $150.7 billion annually. 

The Center for Immigration Studies’ Steven Camerota has testified before Congress that illegal migrants “tend to earn modest wages and make modest tax contributions even when income and payroll taxes are taken out of their pay. This fact, coupled with the relatively heavy demands they make on public coffers – especially for education, health care, and means-tested programs – is the reason they are a net fiscal drain.”

These figures do not take into account the costs to those whose identities have been stolen by illegal immigrants working off the books.

In a recent interview, Trump administration Border Czar Tom Homan acknowledged the problem. “We know for a fact illegal aliens use Americans’ Social Security information to apply for jobs,” he said. Homan asserted that his wife had had her number stolen by an illegal migrant, hurting her credit. 

In response to questions about whether immigration authorities would be making use of Social Security information to target illegal aliens for deportation, Homan replied that they should: “This is about protecting the American taxpayer, protecting their Social Security information. 

We’re protecting Social Security for the people who deserve it, for the people who paid into it for decades. We need to protect it for those that need it, and those who are authorized to receive it.”

The White House, Social Security Administration, DOGE, and the Treasury Department did not respond to RCI questions about whether they are examining the Earnings Suspense File to identify potential illegal migrants for pursuit in workplace enforcement activities. 

Workplace Enforcement Called Key

The Social Security Administration did not say whether it would be restarting the process of issuing “no-match” letters to employers, indicating mismatched records between W-2s submitted and Social Security Administration records. The first Trump administration had issued such letters, but the Biden administration curtailed the practice, and generally eschewed workplace enforcement of immigration laws.

Proponents of the Trump administration’s mass deportation plans believe workplace enforcement is key to any such efforts. Ronald Mortenson recently wrote for the Center for Immigration Studies that “removing millions of individuals illegally in the United States … can only ultimately be accomplished by large-scale workplace enforcement actions that identify large numbers of illegal aliens and lead to their deportation, that eliminate jobs for illegal aliens by holding employers accountable, and that encourage illegal aliens to voluntarily leave the United States.” He has argued DOGE and the Social Security Administration can facilitate these efforts by identifying fraudulently obtained and used Social Security numbers.

Tracking Illegal Voting

DOGE has reportedly used Social Security Administration information to help the Trump administration’s efforts to ensure non-citizens are not participating in U.S. elections. Antonio Gracias, a top DOGE official deployed to the Social Security Administration, recently revealed that of more than 5 million non-citizens to receive Social Security numbers during the Biden years, not only were 1.3 million on Medicaid, but thousands were registered to vote, and some had voted – based upon DOGE’s investigation of the records of just a few states. The administration, Gracias said, had made criminal referrals. DOGE did not respond to RCI’s inquiries.

In a March 25 executive order, the Trump administration instituted a series of measures designed to ensure that only citizens vote in federal elections, while also calling on the Homeland Security Secretary to grant state and local officials access to federal databases for verifying the immigration status of those registering to vote or who have already been registered; to, in coordination with DOGE, review state voter rolls and cross-reference them with federal immigration databases and request relevant state records to identify foreign nationals registered to vote and to share such names with state or local election officials; and for the attorney general to “prioritize enforcement” of laws punishing non-citizen registration and voting, including through use of relevant federal and state databases.

As RCI has previously reported, many states historically lacked access to federal databases for ensuring their voter rolls are free of non-citizens – in part due to the alleged reticence of the Homeland Security Department.

The administration’s critics have not only cast doubt on DOGE’s findings of fraud and questioned the intent of the administration’s associated policies, but sought to challenge the efforts to unearth them in court as illegal. Plaintiffs have challenged DOGE’s ability to access systems and data at agencies ranging from the Treasury Department to the Department of Health and Human Services and the Office of Personnel Management.

Generally, they characterize such officials as unqualified if not separate and apart from the government – and therefore unauthorized to access the sensitive data contained in government databases, including under the Privacy Act.

In a representative response to one such suit, the Trump administration replied that it was facing “a spate of similar lawsuits seeking unprecedented judicial micromanagement of the Executive Branch’s ability to share government data with its own employees in exercising politically accountable oversight of agency activities.”

The administration boiled the arguments on the other side of many such cases down to this: “that it is unlawful for one employee of a federal agency to provide access to its data systems to another employee for the purpose of carrying out an Executive Order of the President.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/24/2025 - 18:00

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 30.0% YoY

Calculated Risk -

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 
 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 30.0% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending April 19, 2025
Active inventory climbed 30.0% from a year ago

The number of homes actively for sale remains significantly higher than last year, continuing a 76-week streak of annual gains.

New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—fell this week due to the Easter holiday, by 1.6% from a year ago

After 14 consecutive weeks of growth, the number of newly listed homes has dipped below last year’s level. However, this decline is largely attributed to the timing of the Easter holiday, which fell later this year than last. Looking ahead, we expect new listings to rebound in the coming week—a typical pattern that follows the end of a holiday. In fact, the recent momentum in listings made this March the most active March for new inventory in three years.

The median list price was up 0.6% year-over-year

The national median list price rose by 0.6% year-over-year, marking the first notable price increase after a stretch of declining or flat trends since last June. While this uptick may signal a warming trend at the national level, local markets may tell a different story. In areas where home shoppers rely on stock market funds for down payments, ongoing uncertainty and volatility in the financial market could tighten buyer budgets, dampen demand, and potentially put downward pressure on prices.
Realtor YoY Active ListingsHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 76th consecutive week.  
New listings have generally increased but remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.
Median list prices are up slightly year-over-year.

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