Stellar 20Y Auction Stops Through Amid Surge In Foreign Demand

Moments ago the week's lone coupon auction priced in what was a stellar sale of 20Y Treasury paper.

At 1pm ET, the US Treasury auctioned off $13BN in 20Y paper, with very solid metrics and even more solid buyside demand. 

The auction priced at a high yield of 4.817%, up from 4.664%, but below January's 4.846%. The auction stopped 0.7bps through the 4.824% When Issued. This was the 3rd stop through auction in the past 4, following an especially ugly, tailing February 20Y auction.  

The bid to cover jumped to 2.76 from 2.36, which was also above the six-auction average of 2.63.

Internals were especially strong, with Foreign demand surging from just 55.2% in February, to 69.2% in March, the highest Indirect award since April 2025 (and obviously above the recent average of 62.1%). And with Directs taking down 21.6%, below the six-auction average of 27.0%, Dealers were left holding 9.2%, a big drop from 17.6% in February and one of the lowest Dealer allotments on record.

Overall, this was a stellar 20Y auction despite the lack of concessions in today's session, and suggests that despite the recent selling across the curve, the bond market remains in solid shape one day ahead of the Fed's decision to keep rates on hold (as most expect). 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 13:24

The Kobayashi Maru Scenario

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The Kobayashi Maru Scenario

Yesterday's Global Daily by Ben Picton, 'The Wrath of Kharg', couldn't help but get me thinking about the infamous Kobayashi Maru scenario in Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan. For those unfamiliar, back when Star Trek was a popular franchise based on serious ideas, not an unpopular one based on frivolous ones, Starfleet Academy tested its budding starship captains by making them try to rescue the simulated crew of a disabled freighter stranded in dangerous territory. Abandoning them was a failure; yet every attempt to retrieve them would be met by an ever-increasing number of attackers. Crucially, this no-win scenario was a key test of officer candidates’ characters, not their tactics or strategy.

The question today is if President Trump is himself caught in a Kobayashi Maru scenario given:

• If he retreats from Iran, it's a geopolitical defeat the equivalent of the 1956 Suez Crisis; and he may not even be able to retreat if Iran refuses to stop the war regionally.

• If he continues to attack, energy markets will panic further. The Israeli press says the country is preparing to fight for another month vs Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, not the three weeks alluded to yesterday; and Iran is now targeting upstream oil and gas fields (such as Shah in the UAE), not just refineries and export terminals, threatening energy supply, not flow.

Yet in Star Trek II we hear that Captain Kirk, in his youth, found a novel solution to the no-win outcome: he reprogrammed the computer, so victory was possible, winning a commendation for original thinking. "I don't like to lose," he tells a logical Vulcan who had already failed the test. Indeed, even as the media are calling this war Operation ‘Epic Folly' --and recalling that oil prices vs physical supply, and bunker fuel, jet fuel, and diesel are worse-- the futures market continues to price for cheaper energy within a few months. Even with backwardation showing the current physical squeeze, which seems to suggest an inherent view there will be no long-run disruption to the region's energy flows: and US assets are not tanking more than others on the suggestion this is due to a looming 1956 defeat. Or is that just the normal science fiction of mean-reverting "because markets" thinking? Let’s be clear: it's very easy to see how things can get far worse. However, there are arguably ways things can also improve as a result.

On one hand, Treasury Secretary Bessent says the US is fine with some Iranian, Chinese, and Indian vessels having successfully made it through Hormuz. Why wouldn't they be? If Iran starts letting everyone but the US and Israel through --neither of whom use it-- then the blockade is effectively over. Yet that argues for Iran not to do so to any great extent.

If true that means blockade is effectively over https://t.co/wHQy1ksNWp pic.twitter.com/spl1c7fVTf

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 14, 2026

On the other, the underlying logic is that Trump also needs to reprogram the no-win scenario via further escalation of his own. As an example, Trump has announced his long-awaited looming trip to Beijing is unlikely to happen because of the war: he wants a delay of a month or so. In short, only if the war ends without a US retreat can Trump and Xi discuss the US-China relationship. The messaging is crystal clear. So is that China can get energy from the Western hemisphere to replace Iran and the GCC if needed. So is the US ability to then put a foot on the hosepipe in certain geopolitical circumstances - as it is now doing with Iran at far greater distance, risk, and cost. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t part of a future deal.

For those who can’t join those dots, note that after Trump blocked most oil exports to it after flipping Venezuela by force, the communist Cuban government has just embraced perestroika, allowing Cuban American exiles to return to the island and open private-sector businesses. That’s yet another Russian-Chinese-Iranian ally that seems in the process of being flipped into the US camp. The world is changing radically and rapidly – and it’s not something one just gets to sit out in splendid isolation.

Indeed, while NATO allies and Japan and South Kore (so far) won’t send ships to help reopen Hormuz despite Trump threats to NATO and even key Asian security alliances, the "It's not our war" crowd must note that the longer this drags on, the more painful it risks getting for them. Moreover, they may also come to see that an angrier nuclear Iran with ballistic missiles, which can happen if the regime survives, would have huge implications for everyone. Japan’s PM Takaichi is reportedly ‘weighing her options’ and could agree to join a Hormuz coalition for freedom of navigation in principle, according to the Japan Times.

By contrast, the EU is saying “Don’t “blackmail” us’: but it arguably is being – in which case, who has the greater leverage and risks the larger fallout? Notably, Europe is also arguing ‘Not one molecule!’ and has ruled out relaxing a Russian gas ban, which logically only leaves the US as an LNG supplier. Via a transitive geopolitical process, that also places Europe on the same side as the US vs Iran, a key supporter of Russia vs Ukraine… and then vs China(?) Meanwhile, with India pushing to now deepen new EU ties even further, does that tie the EU to the US via that South Asian route too, or to pro-Russia India?

The first of the major central banks to have to try to grapple with this today was the RBA. They opted to raise rates 25bps to 4.10%, as expected. They also noted that sustained higher energy prices will add to inflation and that risks on that front have tilted further to the upside: indeed, Aussie inflation is seen staying above target for “some time” even as there are “material uncertainties” about the economic outlook. The Reserve Bank also added it “will do what’s necessary to deliver its price and jobs goals” – but, in the worst case, what if they run in opposite directions ahead? The Aussie 10-year yield, which managed to break through the psychological 5% level yesterday, is now back at around 4.92%. AUD softened slightly on the decision.

What will the other central banks say and do this week? And what will they say and do next month if this really is a Kobayashi Maru scenario for them rather than one they can simply reprogram with a new liquidity acronym? 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 13:11

UBS Eyes Possible Bottom In Airline Stocks After Bear Market

The S&P 500 Passenger Airlines Index has tumbled into a bear market since Operation Epic Fury unleashed flight disruptions across the Middle East and sent Jet A fuel prices sharply higher, with Deutsche Bank warning the fuel price shock could become an "existential threat" for the weakest carriers. The key question now is whether the worst of the selloff in US airline stocks is over, with UBS analysts beginning to ask if a bottom is near.  

UBS analyst Atul Maheswari said that "most airlines will likely point 1Q towards the midpoint of the guidance" in the earnings season, adding, "Fuel spiked in early March, but airlines tend to hold two weeks of fuel inventory, implying higher fuel will impact only about 15 days of 1Q."

"This should cushion the drag to 1Q EPS. Plus, airlines have been talking up demand through the course of the quarter, suggesting upside to 1Q RASM. With respect to FY guide, we expect airlines to suspend FY'26 outlook given the significant uncertainty around fuel costs for the rest of the year," Maheswari noted.

The analyst said that airline stocks are approaching a 2022-style decline, similar to the Russia-Ukraine fuel shock, which may now imply a potential bottoming for airline stocks.

He explained:

How does the current decline in airline stocks compare to historical periods?

If we use share price performance in 1H'22 as a guide, then it suggests that the bottom might be near for these airline stocks.

Since 2/26, shares of ALK and smaller players are down around -30% while UAL, AAL, and LUV are down mid 20%. DAL is down only -17%. The decline in LUV, ALK and smaller players have already matched the peak to trough declines witnessed in 1H'22 - the last time jet fuel witnessed a spike of similar magnitude (following the Russia-Ukraine conflict) as we are seeing currently (full details in fig. 3).

The declines in share prices DAL/UAL have not yet matched the levels witnessed in 2022, but these players now have superior business models with relatively higher margins, suggesting better ability to deal with the fuel price shock.

However, there is a caveat:

Though, one needs to be mindful of the tail risk of this conflict persisting for longer than expected driving jet fuel even higher from current levels. There is also potential for inflation to pick up materially the longer the conflict persists and for consumers to start pulling back from travel and other spending. We don't think this scenario of demand destruction is necessarily priced into the stocks even at these levels.

The S&P 500 Passenger Airlines Index is currently showing a drawdown of about 22%.

Maheswari lowered estimates and price targets for airline stocks within the UBS coverage universe:

• DAL: We lower our FY'26 EPS estimate to $5.85 (was $7.17) assuming 50% pass through of higher fuel costs. Our FY'27 EPS estimate goes to $8.31 from $8.72. Our revised PT is $83, down from $87 previously based on 10x FY'27 EPS estimates.

• UAL: We lower FY'26 EPS estimate to $10.22 from $13.56 while our FY'27 EPS estimate goes to $14.87 from $16.28. We assume ~45% fuel pass through rates for UAL for FY'26. Our new PT is $134 vs. $147 previously.

• AAL: AAL has higher fuel sensitivity than DAL/UAL. As such, the decline AAL sees a greater decline in FY'26 estimates (now at $0.43 vs. $2.21 previously). Our FY'27 EPS falls to $2.13, down from $2.99. This drives a moderation in our PT to $15 from $21.

• LUV: We lower our PT to $59 from $73, which is 11x (was 12x) our new FY'27 EPS estimate of $5.33 (was $6.07). Our FY'26 EPS moves lower to $3.59 (was $5.05).

• ALK: We lower our PT to $60 from $77 based on 8x (was 9x) our new FY'27 EPS estimate of $7.48 (was $8.60). ALK also has high fuel sensitivity to EPS. As such, our FY'26 estimates move meaningfully lower to $2.19 from $5.21.

• We lower lower price targets and estimates for JBLU, ULCC, ALGT, and AC. Full details in figure 1.

• Sensitivity to higher fuel: We estimate that every $0.25/gallon increase in jet fuel would lower DAL's EPS by around -15 to -17% and 20-25% for UAL/LUV (assuming no pass through in the form of higher fares). Fuel sensitivity is higher for AAL/ALK and smaller players. We calculate that for every $0.25/gallon increase in fuel RASM would need to increase by 200-250 bps to fully offset the fuel drag (see fig. 2).

Earlier, US airlines reported strong bookings, with Delta and American both posting some of their best sales days in history as premium leisure and corporate travelers rushed to lock in fares before fuel-driven price increases spread further.

Airlines also pointed to rising fuel costs, with Delta indicating that expenses have already climbed by about $400 million this month. JetBlue said first-quarter demand improved, but warned of reduced capacity amid fuel price shock.

Professional subscribers can read much more from the UBS note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 12:45

Judge Orders DHS To Submit Internal Documents Over Concerns About ICE Detainees' Due Process

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge ordered the Trump administration Monday to turn over data in response to claims that it corrupted bond hearings for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detainees.

While U.S. District Judge Clay Land described in his order these claims as a “conspiracy,” he said further legal proceedings will show whether the accusations are baseless or based in truth. The judge specifically requested documents describing policy or guidance on bond decisions from Jan. 1 to March 1 to compare them with those that existed during 2024 under the Biden administration.

Lawyers for illegal immigrant detainees in the case alleged the executive branch turned the entire bond process into a “sham,” the judge stated.

Land summarized the lawyer’s evidence as a perception that bonds are being denied more frequently, some immigration judges aren’t fully studying the record and appropriate factors before denying bond, and several immigration judges have been fired, which created a fear of retaliation by the executive branch.

“The Court finds this evidence insufficient to support the inference that a systemic failure of due process has occurred within the alien removal process,” Land wrote.

Land reasoned that some evidence exists of a dramatic decline in bond approvals recently. Furthermore, increasing immigration enforcement under Trump with a “stretch it to the limit approach” creates potential for a disregard of constitutional guardrails.

Thus far, the claims presented to the court consist “primarily of unsubstantiated hearsay and speculation flavored with a degree of hyperbolic advocacy,” Land wrote in his Monday order.

Accusations of biased and unconstitutional bond hearings for ICE detainees stemmed from several illegal immigrants, all awaiting removal proceedings, held in the Stewart Detention Center in Stewart County, Georgia.

The ICE detainees argued that an immigration judge failed to provide them with adequate bond hearings. Ten similar cases were consolidated into one, with Odrice Alisma being the petitioner in the lead case.

Alisma’s lawyers, Rachel Sharma and Karen Weinstock, presented evidence of their claims to the court, which the judge described as “circumstantial.”

Sharma and Weinstock did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

But Alisma and her lawyers will be allowed to try to prove their claims in a “limited and targeted discovery,” the judge said. Evidence that may “theoretically” exist to support their accusations is controlled by the Trump administration.

The White House, Department of Homeland Security, and ICE did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Land said he found the administration’s objections to further discovery “unpersuasive.” He added that it was advancing a “‘trust us’ without a right to verify attitude” that “demonstrates a misunderstanding of statutory and constitutional law.”

Although the executive branch’s authority with immigration law is broad, it is not unlimited, Land continued.

Both parties must propose a joint schedule for further proceedings, including due dates for discovery requests, depositions, and any supplemental briefing after all discovery has been completed, by March 24.

If both sides can’t agree on a schedule, they’re each ordered to submit their own proposal for scheduling by March 24.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 12:25

Johnson Hits Back After Counterterrorism Chief Quits; Says Iran Threat To Americans Was 'Imminent'

Update (1220ET): Shortly after the departure of Joe Kent as director of the National Counterterrorism Center over the Iran war - insisting that Iran posed "no imminent threat to our nation," House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) insisted there was. 

"I’m on the Gang of Eight. I got all the briefings. We all understood there was clearly an imminent threat," Johnson said during a press conference, referring to the classified briefings that top Congressional leaders receive. "I don’t know where Joe Kent is getting his information, but he wasn’t in those briefings, clearly."

Mike Johnson: "We all understood there was clearly an imminent threat that Iran was very close to the enrichment of nuclear capability ... I don't know where Joe Kent is getting his information ... the president felt he had to strike first to prevent mass casualties" pic.twitter.com/r9VgPqfW8Y

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 17, 2026

Top Democrats who were in those meetings, however, disagree - saying they were not presented with evidence of an imminent attack from Iran, according to The Hill. 

 

*  *  *

Please consider supporting ZeroHedge with the purchase of a multitool - or anything else from our store. Thanks for your help.

*  *  *

In a massive break from President Trump and MAGA, Joe Kent, Director of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), announced his immediate resignation on Tuesday, citing irreconcilable opposition to the ongoing U.S. military operations against Iran.

Kent declared he could not “in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran,” stating unequivocally that Iran posed “no imminent threat to our nation” and that the conflict was initiated “due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.” The move comes weeks into active strikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites, leadership, and infrastructure, with Iranian retaliation underway and global oil markets feeling the strain.

After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today.

I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this… pic.twitter.com/prtu86DpEr

— Joe Kent (@joekent16jan19) March 17, 2026

Kent, a retired Green Beret with 11 combat deployments, former CIA paramilitary officer, and Gold Star husband who lost his wife Shannon in a 2019 ISIS-claimed suicide bombing in Syria, framed his exit as a defense of the "America First" principles Trump championed during his 2016, 2020, and 2024 campaigns. He praised Trump's first term for decisively striking Qasem Soleimani and defeating ISIS without escalating into endless wars, noting that until June 2025, Trump recognized Middle East conflicts as a "trap" draining American lives and wealth. However, Kent alleges that "early in this administration, high-ranking Israeli officials and influential members of the American media deployed a misinformation campaign" that undermined Trump's platform, deceived him into believing Iran posed an imminent threat with a "clear path to a swift victory," and echoed tactics used to draw the U.S. into the "disastrous Iraq war." He explicitly compares the current situation to Iraq, warning against repeating the mistake that cost thousands of American lives.

"As a veteran who deployed to combat 11 times and as a Gold Star husband who lost my beloved wife Shannon in a war manufactured by Israel, I cannot support sending the next generation off to fight and die in a war that serves no benefit to the American people," Kent wrote.

The resignation carries profound weight as Kent was a Senate-confirmed Trump loyalist installed in July 2025, not a career holdover. As head of the NCTC - tasked with assessing terrorist threats from Iranian proxies and beyond - Kent is directly challenging the administration’s justification for the conflict. The letter, addressed personally to the president and thanking DNI Tulsi Gabbard, signals deeper fractures in the MAGA coalition or prompts a policy pivot, Kent’s bombshell exit underscores the high personal and political stakes of America’s latest Middle East engagement.

The resignation effectively places Kent within a growing bloc of Republicans who have opposed the Iran campaign from the outset, elevating what had been a vocal but limited faction into a more institutionally significant challenge to the administration’s approach.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), longtime advocates of non-interventionist “America First” foreign policy, were among the earliest critics of the strikes, warning they risk entangling the U.S. in another costly and open-ended Middle East conflict. Both have argued in recent weeks that the operation mirrors the strategic missteps that led to the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, calling for de-escalation and greater congressional oversight.

The most prominent political voice amplifying that message has been former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who has emerged as one of the war’s fiercest critics within Trump’s base. Since the first strikes in late February, Greene has repeatedly denounced the operation in media appearances and on social platforms, calling it a betrayal of Trump’s campaign pledge to avoid new foreign entanglements. 

On Saturday, Greene told CNN that the Republican base is fractured "along generational lines."

“Many of the older Americans from the Baby Boomer generation that watch Fox News all day long very much believe the talking points on Fox News, and they have spent decades of their lives convinced that fighting these wars is the right thing to do,” she explained.

Marjorie Taylor Greene: "It's turned into some perverted, deranged version of MAGA now that nobody wants" pic.twitter.com/OceBnJpLnp

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 16, 2026

Meanwhile, the knives are out. Trump's former Deputy Chief of Staff Taylor Budowich said that Kent is a "crazed egomaniac who was often at the center of national security leaks, while rarely (never?) producing any actual work."

Joe Kent is a crazed egomaniac who was often at the center of national security leaks, while rarely (never?) producing any actual work.

He spent all of his time working to subvert the chain of command and undermine the President of the United States.

This isn’t some principled… https://t.co/bcv0Kh6XVH

— Taylor Budowich (@Budowich) March 17, 2026

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 12:22

'No Rigged Voting': Trump Calls SAVE Act 'Most Important & Consequential' Legislation; Mike Lee Debunks Left's Favorite Lie

President Trump on Tuesday called on Congress to pass the SAVE Act which requires ID to vote in federal elections, warning that lawmakers who vote against it will have a "guaranteed loss" in future campaigns. 

Photo: Doug Mills/The New York Times

"The Save America Act is one of the most IMPORTANT & CONSEQUENTIAL pieces of legislation in the history of Congress, and America itself. NO MORE RIGGED ELECTIONS!" Trump posted to Truth Social. "Voter I.D., Proof of Citizenship, No Rigged Mail-In Voting (We are the only Country in the World that allows this!), No Men in Women’s Sports, No Transgender MUTILIZATION of our Children. 90% to 99% ISSUES ALL!," he added. (Mutilization?)

Trump's suggestion seems to be that if Democrats are allowed to steal elections, all of the woke societal ills will continue. 

"Only sick, demented, or deranged people in the House or Senate could vote against THE SAVE AMERICA ACT. If they do, each one of these points, separately, will be used against the user in his/her political campaign for office - A guaranteed loss!" Trump added. 

Trump also said on Tuesday that he won't endorse anyone who votes against it.

Good https://t.co/8yF8XGbak9

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 17, 2026

Meanwhile, Matt Margolis of PJ Media debunks the left's 'favorite lies' about the SAVE Act, writing; Democrats have been running the same tired playbook on the SAVE Act. They’ve claimed it’s racist, but those attacks haven’t exactly worked because majorities of minority voters support it. So, they try to scare people with outlandish claims like it will make it impossible for married women to vote. It’s a stupid claim, but some people are willing to believe it. And there are plenty of other accusations that are just as untrue.

Sen. Dick Durbin tried to push those fake claims in a recent Senate hearing, rattling off a list of grievances about the bill’s voter registration requirements.

Durbin kicked things off with the passport argument, a favorite among critics of the legislation, when it comes to registering to vote. "What is acceptable is a passport," he said. "50% of Americans do not have a passport. Those who want to obtain it so they can vote will pay $186 and wait three or four weeks for that to happen." He kept going with the married woman claim, arguing that anyone who changed their name after marriage would have to dig up not just a birth certificate but additional documentation to prove their eligibility.

However, it’s all a lie, and Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), the lead sponsor of the bill, was ready for him.

Lee let Durbin finish and then, with barely concealed amusement, delivered the kind of response that makes committee hearings worth watching. "I'm happy to report to my dear friend and colleague Senator Durbin from Illinois — you're in luck," Lee said. "We've taken care of that."

He went on to point out that the SAVE Act includes an explicit accommodation for people who can't produce traditional documentation. Lee spelled it out in plain English: "When you read the bill, what you'll discover is that we've made special accommodation for those who don't have documentation, for those who can't find their birth certificate. Maybe their house burned down, maybe their dog ate it, or whatever it is."

So what happens if someone genuinely has no paperwork? The bill has an answer for that, too. "When all else fails, if you don't have documentation establishing the information on your birth certificate or what would be in a passport or otherwise, the bill contains a provision requiring each state to allow an alternative mechanism by which someone can, by attestation, issue a sworn statement establishing the critical facts underlying their citizenship," Lee explained. The state then takes responsibility for verifying that sworn statement, using its own records and reciprocity agreements with other states.

Durbin tried to interject a few times. He didn't get far. Lee kept going, methodically dismantling the argument piece by piece. "We took great pains to go out of our way to make sure that no American, no American would be left in the dark," he said. "This will not cost them a dime. And no one will be excluded if they can't find their documentation."

Well, that’s a big problem for the Democrats because this undermines the whole Democratic line of attack. The passport fees, the birth certificate hunt, the cost and inconvenience - they all collapse the moment you actually read the legislation. The bill anticipates exactly the scenarios Democrats claim to be worried about and has a built-in workaround. With that in mind, they have no reason to oppose the legislation, that is, if those were truly sticking points for them

They say things about the SAVE AMERICA Act that aren’t true

I correct them

Then they pretend they never said anythingpic.twitter.com/PpZJ0Wuw6d

— Mike Lee (@BasedMikeLee) March 15, 2026

Lee even extended an invitation at the end, suggesting Durbin would surely want to support the bill now that his concerns had been addressed. “I’m sure you'll be elated to hear that, and we look forward to having your affirmative vote when we vote on the SAVE America Act.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 12:05

Source: Cambridge Associates/JPM assisted by Claude

 

 

There’s an excess of news flow from the SCOTUS rejection of IEEPA tariffs to the current Middle East/Iran war. I suspect some important items are getting overlooked.

Perhaps the biggest is the goings on in private credit.

I don’t want to get distracted by gates and redemptions, belated marks, or even blow-ups. Instead, let’s address the Tweepadock in the room. The combination of unfettered growth and massive consolidation has significantly reduced the number of public equities, even as public markets have grown enormously. This has created a huge surge in the number and variety of alternative asset classes, most notably private equity and debt.

Should you be considering adding illiquid debt, credit, equity, or RE, there are some ideas you may wish to consider. Too often, the debate gets framed in binary options, but the reality is far more complex and nuanced.

The Argument: The big selling point is that illiquid alternatives may improve your risk-adjusted returns, add diversification, and provide access to non-correlated returns. These are proven results from many top-tier managers. The drawbacks are illiquidity, lack of transparency, high fees, and (to borrow Cliff Asness’ phrase) volatility-laundering.

The biggest variables affecting all of the above are 1) Timing, or when you deploy your capital, and 2) Fund/Manager selection, or the exact fund and vintage you choose. It’s not as simple or clear-cut as much of the sales literature makes it out to be.

Illiquidity Premium: Investors in private alternatives select from a universe of options that do not provide daily liquidity. This creates a broad choice of potential investments that can (and sometimes do) generate a higher return than the public markets provide. The trade-off is that you have to be willing to tie up your capital for years at a time. And the caveat is that not all private investments generate an above-market return.

Do you need Privates? For the typical households with a diversified portfolio of stocks bonds whether through mutual funds and ETF’s or direct indexing, likely do not need alternatives. But that doesn’t mean they don’t want alts or aren’t interested in either additional returns and or diversification.

Households with $5,000,000 in investment portfolios or less are likely fully diversified, so long as they are willing to withstand the occasional market volatility and drawdown.

In the $5-10 million range, the main question is how long you’re willing to lock up capital. Life changes do happen, and if you need liquidity, exiting alternatives early can be costly. For households with portfolios over $10,000,000, the key question is whether alts meet their long-term goals and suit their financial planning needs.

Do Privates need you? As we’ve seen across all sorts of institutional products, the appeal of the retail investor is that they have become an immense pool of capital measured in the 10s of trillions of dollars. As the number of private funds have expanded many have exhausted how much they can tap the institutional investor base. It was inevitable that they would reach out o the 401K and retail investor base – the dollar amounts are simply catnip to so many funds.

Sturgeon’s Corollary: I’ve mentioned sturgeon’s law and its corollary too many times to count; the key element to remember is that most investment products are mediocre at best. This is true for mutual funds, ETF’s, SPACs, hedge funds, venture funds, as well as all forms of illiquid alts including private credit and debt.

I used Claude to access Cambridge Associates data and create the chart at top showing the dispersion among top and bottom quartiles of alternatives. Venture capital is the big outlier, with the widest disp[ersion imaginable. But private equity, and debt also have a very wide dispersion — good funds do a little better than public markets, and mediocre funds do much worse.

Quality: If you can get into the top decile (quartile even?) of alts/privates, that changes the calculus as to whether or not you should be deploying your capital in that direction.

The top tier is more than just good returns: it’s a long-term track record, transparency, reasonable fees, intelligent co-investors, and a general high degree of ethics and professionalism. I have heard far too many horror stories about alts gone wrong to advise you not to blindly stumble into too many of the available options.

Conclusion:  I remain unconvinced that the median alternative fund is worth the fees, illiquidity, and complexity. Unless you can get into a top fund, it is simply not worth the headaches.

 

 

 

Previously:
Sturgeon’s Corollary (December 4, 2025)

Your Co-Investors in BREIT (December 12, 2022)

 

~~~

NOTE: I wrote this entire post myself. I used Claude to generate the chart and table above; I use Grammarly to spell/grammar check the Word doc it was drafted in. 

 

The post Ill-Liquidity Premium appeared first on The Big Picture.

Bitcoin's Ownership Base Is Maturing, Reducing Reliance On Retail: Analysts

Authored by Micah Zimmermann via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Bitcoin investors have shown surprising resilience despite recent market turbulence, fueled by institutional investors and aggressive corporate treasury buyers. 

Analysts say this trend highlights a structural shift in ownership that could support long-term growth.

Institutional demand is clearly back, with “four consecutive sessions of ETF inflows and aggressive spot demand…suggesting one thing: institutional buyers have returned and they’re ready to increase their holdings around current prices, which recovered to above $70k as a result,” Bitfinex said in a note to Bitcoin Magazine.

Bitfinex wrote that “a sustained break above resistance could trigger momentum expansion, as positioning and the balance of flows suggest that the market is preparing for its next directional move after weeks of range trading.”

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan also noted Bitcoin ETFs have held up despite a roughly 50% price drop since October 2025, underlining institutional commitment.

“The best evidence we have is in the ETF market,” Hougan said, according to Coindesk reporting. 

“Bitcoin ETFs accumulated roughly $60 billion in net flows from their launch in January 2024 through October 2025. Since October 2025, prices are down 50%, but we’ve seen less than $10 billion in outflows from ETFs,” he said. 

Hougan described institutional investors as exhibiting “diamond hands,” maintaining positions despite severe market drawdowns. He attributes this persistence to the non-consensus status of BTC.

Hougan said that institutional investors who buy into BTC today are still sticking their neck out and standing out from their peers. That career risk, he explained, fosters unusually high conviction, meaning investors allocating capital to bitcoin today tend to be 80–90% convinced of its long-term value rather than mildly optimistic.

This conviction underpins Hougan’s reaffirmed long-term bitcoin forecast of $1 million per coin. 

“The wildest thing about my $1 million prediction is that it’s not wild at all,” he said. “All you need for bitcoin to get to $1 million is for the global store of value market to continue to grow as it has for the past 20 years and for bitcoin to become a minor but material part of that market.”

Last week, Hougan argued that skepticism over Bitcoin reaching $1 million stems from a misunderstanding of its valuation, as many analysts use “static math” that ignores the rapidly growing global store-of-value market. 

Framing BTC as an emerging competitor to gold, he estimates that with a $38 trillion market and BTC’s fixed supply of 21 million coins, the $1 million price target is plausible.

Bitcoin isn’t very speculative anymore

Supporting this thesis, Bernstein analysts also noted that bitcoin’s ownership base has matured, reducing reliance on retail speculation.

In a March 16 research note seen by Bitcoin Magazine, they highlighted the growing influence of spot BTC ETFs and corporate treasury buyers such as Strategy. 

The firm described Strategy as a “bitcoin central bank of last resort,” citing its aggressive accumulation model, which has added more than 66,000 BTC so far in 2026 at an average cost near $85,000. Strategy’s total holdings now exceed 761,000 BTC, valued around $56 billion.

Bernstein emphasized that institutional inflows are reshaping BTC’s ownership structure. Spot ETFs absorbed about $2.1 billion in inflows over three weeks, nearly offsetting year-to-date outflows of $460 million. 

Institutional vehicles now control roughly 6.1% of BTC’s total supply, while coins inactive for over a year represent approximately 60% of circulating supply, signaling a growing base of long-term holders.

On top of this, on-chain indicators point to a late-stage bear cycle, as Lacie Zhang of Bitget Wallet explained to Bitcoin Magazine:

“The convergence of on-chain indicators such as realized price and MVRV suggests Bitcoin may be entering the late stage of a typical bear cycle, a phase historically associated with long-term accumulation rather than continued capitulation.” 

Despite short-term macro headwinds, the current conditions signal a strategic accumulation phase, with BTC likely fluctuating between $68,000 and $84,000 as longer-term investors position for the next cycle.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 11:45

Las Vegas Cops Refuse To Release Violent Repeat Offender, Defying Judge's Order

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Las Vegas Metro police are refusing to release a violent repeat offender, in defiance of a local judge’s order.

The career criminal, 36-year-old Joshua Sanchez-Lopez, has been arrested 35 times, with a rap sheet that includes involuntary manslaughter, drugs and car theft, according to the New York Post.

The legal standoff began in January, when police arrested Sanchez-Lopez on a warrant for grand larceny of a motor vehicle.

Justice Eric Goodman set Sanchez-Lopez’s bail at $25,000 and ordered his release with an ankle monitor once he posted bond.

The program allows defendants to leave jail and wear an ankle bracelet. Various levels of the program require different levels of confinement. Goodman ordered Sanchez-Lopez to high-level electronic monitoring, which Dickerson described as house arrest. About 450 defendants are in the program at a time.

Sanchez-Lopez reportedly posted bail on January 24, but the Las Vegas police refused to place him in the program, given his history of failing to comply with the rules. Attorneys for Metro filed a petition last week challenging the judge’s authority to release him, arguing that the Department has the authority to declare a defendant too dangerous to release.

In a letter to the court, the department gave three reasons for refusing the judge’s order.

1. Sanchez-Lopez’s history of failing to appear in court

2. His previous bench warrants

3. His past violations of electronic monitoring rules

Police cited a case in 2020, where Sanchez-Lopez, armed with a gun, ran from the cops and later joked about his ankle monitor on Snapchat and gloated about being “chased again.”

“We have to take a look at that and say, ‘Is this somebody who our electronic supervision program can monitor safely in the community?” Mike Dickerson, assistant general counsel for Metro police, told KLAS. “This is an issue of public safety.”

Goodman last month threatened to hold the police department and Clark County Sheriff Kevin McMahill, who heads Metro police, in contempt of court for defying his order.

In its petition, filed on March 9, the department asked “for the justice court to stop trying to force Clark County Sheriff Kevin McMahill to violate his statutory duty.”

Sanchez-Lopez’s public defender told KLAS the cops are out of line.

“Metro’s argument is flat wrong,” attorney P. David Westbrook told the outlet. “It is the job of the elected judge to decide whether someone charged with a crime should be released and under what conditions.

“The idea that a Metro employee can overrule a judge’s release order and keep someone locked up should worry anyone who believes in the Constitution and the rule of law,” Westbrook said.

Metro’s Office of Public Information also provided the following statement to KLAS:

On Monday, March 9, 2026, the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department filed a petition with the Nevada Supreme Court asking for a writ of prohibition against the Justice Court of the Las Vegas Township.

LVMPD is asking for the justice court to stop trying to force Clark County Sheriff Kevin McMahill to violate his statutory duty. The justice court is threatening contempt proceedings against Sheriff McMahill for not releasing a pretrial detainee to LVMPD’s electronic supervision program even though the sheriff determined that electronic supervision of that individual would pose an unreasonable risk to public safety and communicated his determination to the justice court.

Sheriff McMahill’s authority to evaluate whether electronic supervision of a defendant poses an unreasonable risk to public safety is clearly defined in NRS 211.250(2) and NRS 211.300.

The Justice Court of the Las Vegas Township has the authority to release dangerous people into our community. However, the sheriff will not violate the law to assist those few judges who seek to use LVMPD’s electronic monitoring program in disregard of public safety and the safety of the dedicated LVMPD corrections officers who administer the electronic monitoring program.

Sanchez-Lopez’s case is scheduled to return to Goodman’s courtroom on Thursday, March 19, KLAS reported.

The case comes as the public becomes increasingly concerned about the dire consequences of liberal, soft-on crime policies amid a slew of appalling stories in the news featuring homicidal maniacs, illegal alien gangbangers, and career criminals being released back onto the streets again and again to victimize innocent Americans thanks to lenient judges like Goodman, Soros district attorneys and Blue State sanctuary politicians.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 11:05

"Demand For Critical Isotopes Rising, Supply Limited": Oklo Lands First NRC License & Another DOE Milestone

In a double dose of regulatory green lights delivered on the same day, Oklo and its wholly owned subsidiary Atomic Alchemy just notched two meaningful milestones that underscore America’s push to reclaim control over critical nuclear supply chains.

*Oklo Announces DOE Approval for Nuclear Safety Design Agreement of Aurora Powerhouse at Idaho National Laboratory

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 17, 2026

The news sent the stock flying in early morning trading. 

What happened?

First, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission issued Atomic Alchemy its inaugural materials license. The permit authorizes the company to receive, possess, process, repackage, and distribute up to 2 curies of radium-226 (material currently treated as waste) along with sealed sources of cobalt-60 and americium-241 for calibration. Operations will kick off at Atomic Alchemy’s Idaho Radiochemistry Laboratory in Idaho Falls, paving the way for initial commercial sales of recovered isotopes used in cancer therapies, medical research, advanced manufacturing, and national security applications.

Oklo CEO Jacob DeWitte said, “Demand for critical isotopes is rising, but U.S. supply remains limited. This work helps create a more resilient and dependable domestic supply chain of isotopes and supports the transition from early operations to durable, commercial isotope production in the United States.”

Hot on its heels came the second announcement: the Department of Energy approved the Nuclear Safety Design Agreement (NSDA) for Oklo’s flagship Aurora powerhouse at Idaho National Laboratory. Following the recent signing of an Other Transaction Agreement under DOE’s Reactor Pilot Program, the NSDA marks the first formal step in the accelerated authorization pathway. Oklo has already requested review of its Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis, building on the project’s September 2025 groundbreaking and the earlier NSDA win for its Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility.

Oklo $OKLO Announces U.S. Department of Energy Approval for Nuclear Safety Design Agreement of Aurora Powerhouse at Idaho National Laboratory

This is an acronym word salad for folks not versed in DOE-STD-1271

Oklo has signed an Other Transaction Agreement (OTA) with the DOE to… pic.twitter.com/KErZGDNXPK

— Steffan Szumowski (@UnoMasReactor) March 17, 2026

The Aurora-INL deployment, powered by recycled fuel from the historic Experimental Breeder Reactor II, sets the stage for eventual NRC commercial licensing while demonstrating how fast-fission tech can pair with isotope production for multi-stream revenue. The reactor design already scored a huge win after it was announced Oklo will be partnering with Meta to deploy multiple reactors to support the hyperscalers' data centers. 

As we detailed back in January in our coverage of Oklo’s isotope business, the company is pursuing multiple revenue streams, unlike typical reactor developers who just focus on power off‑take agreements.

Oklo is reporting earnings after the bell later today and could share more details on their Atomic Alchemy isotope business. Analysts are looking for updates on reactor deployment timelines, new partnerships with hyperscalers or other power off‑takers, and some more clarity on nuclear fuel recycling efforts.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 10:50

Fire Erupts Atop Manhattan Skyscraper

Dramatic footage has flooded X, showing what appears to be a fire atop a skyscraper in Midtown Manhattan at 6 East 43rd Street, New York City.

The FDNY is operating at a fire on East 43rd Street in Manhattan. pic.twitter.com/SlJ0UrbSY8

— FDNY (@FDNY) March 17, 2026

Footage:

Fire on Madison #nyc. Hope everyone is safe pic.twitter.com/5yLzvGmbh1

— Gabriel (@gabriel_horwitz) March 17, 2026

6 East 43rd Street is on fire. #nyc #fire pic.twitter.com/6rEynZ3u9J

— John Smith (@JohnSmithrx3e) March 17, 2026

Happening now in Midtown Manhattan. The Mr just sent a picture. Anyone know what’s going on? pic.twitter.com/GAhRDfdw9e

— I Can’t Even (@PalleyKara) March 17, 2026

Going on right now in Manhattan job site my son is on pic.twitter.com/wbkZPPGQ7T

— PeterAnthony (@PeterA1331) March 17, 2026

Massive fire in Midtown NYC hope everyone is safe pic.twitter.com/c1zfK4Xqaq

— Vikas Desai (@vikasdesai52) March 17, 2026

*Developing

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 10:20

US Pending Home Sales Barely Bounce Off Record Lows Despite Tumbling Rates In Feb

After reaching a record low last month - with the decline blamed on weather - pending home sales bounced modestly in February (up 1.8% MoM vs -0.6% MoM exp and -10.% MoM prior).

Year-over-year home sales continue to decline (down 0.6% YoY)...

Source: Bloomberg

...just barely off of all-time-record lows...

Source: Bloomberg

Pending home sales in the South, the biggest home-selling region in the country, increased 2.7%.

They rose 4.6% in the Midwest and edged up in the West.

Contract signings dropped in the Northeast.

Mortgage-rates have tumbled (to their lowest since 2022) - helping affordability - so what is holding pending home sales back?

Source: Bloomberg

“The slight gain in pending contracts appears to be driven by improved affordability conditions. However, those conditions could reverse if higher oil prices lead to an uptick in mortgage rates,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

Indeed, it certainly won't help in April that in the first week of March, mortgage rates jumped by the most since September as war with Iran sparked concerns about inflation.

Housing affordability has been a key issue ahead of November’s midterm election. President Trump has taken several steps to boost home ownership, including signing two executive orders last week aimed at improving access to mortgage credit and easing environmental rules to speed up development projects.

As a reminder, pending-homes sales tend to be a leading indicator for previously owned homes, as houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 10:08

Will The Iran War Trigger A Dollar Crisis?

The oil spike has moderated and markets are mellow for the time being, but could the long-term economic consequences of this war just be getting started?

U.S. allies have shown a lackluster response after President Trump’s request for assistance in reopening the Strait of Hormuz — a corridor carrying roughly 20% of global oil supply — and this may spell a trend of what’s to come. What happens when oil-producing Gulf states have had enough of our/Israel’s foreign policy machinations and, as a result, begin to de-dollarize or offload U.S. sovereign debt?

Tonight at 7pm ET, wealth manager Peter Schiff, proponent of the Austrian school of economics, and Rabobank global strategist Michael Every will square off on these questions and debate whether the Iran war will undermine the foundations of dollar dominance.

Moderating the discussion is the great Dave Collum, chemistry professor at ZeroHedge and long-time friend of ZH.

Schiff: Dollar’s Days Numbered

Schiff has long argued that U.S. fiscal deficits, monetary expansion, and reliance on foreign capital have put the dollar on an unsustainable trajectory. In recent commentary on the Iran conflict, he warned the war could accelerate those vulnerabilities.

The U.S. economy and labor market were already weakening, and inflation strengthening, before the war with Iran began. Now, as those problems get worse, Trump can blame them on a war he will insist we had no choice but to fight. Stagflation will be sold as the cost of freedom.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) February 28, 2026

According to Schiff, the combination of higher oil prices, massive war spending, and renewed inflation pressures could trigger a severe economic downturn and destroy purchasing power for Americans. The conflict could be the catalyst that finally exposes structural weaknesses he has warned about for years: a heavily indebted U.S. economy dependent on monetary stimulus and foreign financing.

When other countries start offloading their dollars, it may be rapid and jarring. As Schiff is fond of saying, stocks take the escalator up and the elevator down. 

Every: Manufactured Hegemony

Rabobank’s Michael Every takes a different approach.

Less worrisome, he sees Hormuz being opened in two to three weeks:

1/2

Some thoughts on the Iran War on CNBC which are not quite as their headline puts it.

Our base case remains thst Hormuz is reopened by the end of this month or early April.

Yet geopolitically, that’s more likely to be through US force escalation (“The only way out is…

— Michael Every (@TheMichaelEvery) March 16, 2026

Rather than collapsing the dollar, crises can actually reinforce its dominance, as global investors rush into U.S. assets during periods of uncertainty. Indeed, in the opening days of the Iran conflict the dollar initially strengthened even as global markets tumbled.

Every also sees the war as a geopolitical chess move that can strengthen the U.S. dollar. If the post-war Iranian regime is more subservient to the Americans, they would control another crux of the world’s energy trade.

Tune in tonight at 7pm ET to witness the showdown. Right here on the ZeroHedge homepage and streaming on X.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 10:00

Iraq Negotiates With Iran To Reopen Vital Oil Shipping Route

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

The federal Iraqi government is in contact with Iran to persuade Tehran to allow some Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani said on Tuesday. 

“There is communication with Iran regarding allowing the passage of some Iraqi oil tankers,” the minister said in statements carried by the Iraqi News Agency (INA). 

Iraq, unlike Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), doesn’t have any options – even partial – to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed for over two weeks now, forcing Baghdad to slash oil production as storage sites and tankers available in the Gulf filled up.

Iraq was the first to announce more than a week ago it was slashing crude oil production amid the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Last week Iraq said it would maintain crude oil production at roughly 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) as the war disrupting the Persian Gulf continues to cripple the country’s export routes.

Before the war, Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer behind Saudi Arabia, produced more than 4.4 million bpd. 

But with no way out of the Gulf for all these barrels, Iraq and the other major producers are forced to slash upstream production.

Initial losses of about 5 million bpd have already hit about 10 million bpd, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its monthly report published last week. 

For Iraq, the situation is more critical than the other Gulf producers—its dependence on oil revenue is the highest in the region, and unlike Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, Baghdad doesn’t have a huge sovereign wealth fund to lean on.  

So Iraq is also scrambling to restore a northern oil export route that would send crude from the Kirkuk fields directly to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, as the southern export route via the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for weeks.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 09:25

SK Chairman Warns Global Memory Crunch May Last Until 2030

SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won warned that the global high-bandwidth memory crunch, driven by AI data center buildouts, will last until the end of the decade.

Chey told reporters on the sidelines of Nvidia's annual developer conference, 'GTC 2026,' at the San Jose Convention Center in California on Monday that the memory chip shortage could last another four to five years, with supply unlikely to catch up to demand until 2030.

He explained, "The supply shortage problem stems from a wafer shortage, and it takes at least four to five years to secure more wafers," adding, "We expect the supply shortage (across the industry) to persist at over 20% until 2030."

"I will do my best to stabilize prices," he noted. "I understand that our CEO (Kwak No-jung) will soon announce a new plan to stabilize DRAM prices."

Chey was asked by a reporter about plans to move manufacturing plants or production capacity to the US under President Trump's 'Make America Great Again' industrial base buildout. He responded that, at the moment, intentions are mostly focused on facilities in South Korea.

He explained, "It is the same wherever we go, and even if we establish production capabilities outside of Korea, it takes the same amount of time. Since Korea already has an established foundation, we can respond much more quickly, which is why we are focusing on Korea."

Chey’s timeline for how long the memory crunch will linger is set to cause a "tsunami-like shock" across the global smartphone industry, according to a recent report from the market research firm International Data Corporation. The shock is expected to spread to every consumer electronics company that heavily relies on memory, first squeezing margins and then forcing companies to raise prices for consumers.

Bloomberg Markets Live reporter Michael Ball warned the other week that the memory crunch is becoming yet another bottleneck for AI data center buildouts.

Last week, Goldman analyst Katherine Murphy told clients that a "structural supply crunch in the memory market" will "put constraints on the availability of PCs and drive vendors to raise prices in order to protect thin margins."

Murphy forecast that shipments in 2026 will slide by about 12% year over year to 245 million units, with consumer PCs declining 15% year over year to 108 million units and commercial PCs down 9% year over year to 137 million units.

"As of March 2026, we expect PC unit shipments at DELL and HPQ will be down high single digits to low double digits year over year in C2026, with AAPL PC units up modestly year over year on new product launches, including the entry-level MacBook Neo," the analyst noted.

Murphy said the soaring DRAM and NAND component costs, which typically account for 20% of a PC build's total cost, will account for about 40% under the current pricing regime.

Professional subscribers can read much more about the memory crunch on our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 09:05

The post The AI Bubble, Like the Housing Bubble, Is a Big Problem and It’s Not Complicated appeared first on CEPR.

My early two for Tuesday morning train WFH reads:

• Et Tu, S&P 500?: Robin Wigglesworth on the fascinating possibility that S&P index rules may be rewritten to accommodate SpaceX—the implications for passive investing and index integrity are enormous. (Financial Times) see also S&P Weighs Rule Changes That Would Speed SpaceX’s S&P 500 Entry: S&P Dow Jones is considering rule changes that would pave the way for SpaceX to join the index—a move that could reshape both the index and the IPO timeline for the world’s most valuable private company. (Yahoo Finance)

• Iran Has Just Fired the Most Dangerous Shot of This War and It Wasn’t a Missile: The argument that Iran’s most potent weapon isn’t military but economic—the oil market disruption may prove more damaging than any missile strike. (European Business Magazine)

• Judge Smacks Down Trump’s Investigation Into Jerome Powell: The judiciary steps in to protect Fed independence. The attempt to investigate the Fed chair was always legally dubious — now a judge has confirmed it. A federal judge said the Department of Justice had found “zero evidence” of wrongdoing. (New Republic) see also Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System v. United States of America (District Court Decision: Federal Reserve System v. United States (District of D.C., File No. 26-12)

• China’s Edge in an Oil Shock: Electric Cars and Renewables: Beijing’s massive investments in EVs and renewables are paying off precisely when it matters most—China is far better insulated from this oil shock than the West. (New York Times)

• How the Housing Market Split in Two: The housing market has fractured into haves and have-nots, with affordability varying wildly by region. The data here is granular and alarming. New and existing homeowners live in different worlds (Agglomerations) see also The Great American Condo Crisis: If America wants to remain a nation of homeowners, it needs to start building condos again—a compelling argument that the missing middle of housing is the condo, not just the duplex. If the U.S. wants to remain a nation of homeowners, it has no choice but to start building condos again. (The Atlantic)

• Encyclopedia Britannica Sues OpenAI Over AI Training: Britannica and Merriam-Webster take OpenAI to court over training data, adding to the growing pile of copyright litigation that will ultimately define what AI companies can and can’t scrape. (Reuters)

• Donald Trump Warns NATO Faces ‘Very Bad Future’ If Allies Fail to Help US in Iran: Trump demands NATO allies share the burden of the Iran conflict, threatening consequences—the transatlantic relationship continues to deteriorate at the worst possible moment. “It’s only appropriate that people who are the beneficiaries of the strait will help to make sure that nothing bad happens there,” Trump said, arguing that Europe and China are heavily dependent on oil from the Gulf, unlike the US. “If there’s no response or if it’s a negative response I think it will be very bad for the future of Nato,” he added. (Financial Times).

• How Rivian Is Pulling Off Its $45,000 R2 Electric SUV: Rivian’s $45K R2 is the EV that could actually move the mass-market needle—if they can execute on manufacturing at scale, which remains the billion-dollar question. How the automaker’s engineering team learned to say no—or make some compromises to create a smaller, more affordable electric car. (Wired) see also Why Rivian Is Holding the $45,000 Base Model R2 Until ‘Late 2027’: The fine print on Rivian’s affordable R2: the base model won’t ship until late 2027, which is an eternity in the EV market and a test of consumer patience. (TechCrunch)

• Satellite Firm Pauses Imagery After Revealing Iran’s Attacks on US Bases: Planet Labs stops publishing satellite imagery of US bases hit by Iranian strikes to avoid giving adversaries battle damage assessments—the tension between transparency and operational security in real time. (Ars Technica)

• The reviews are in. It’s not looking good, America. Allies are giving the U.S. one-star and two-star ratings on its efforts to protect democracy and dependability in a crisis. (Politico) see also America’s Diminished Place in the World and the Consequences of Not Impeaching: A sharp assessment of how America’s global standing has eroded and the institutional failures that accelerated the decline—the consequences of not holding power accountable are now impossible to ignore. (Techdirt)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Matt Cherwin, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Marek Capital. The alternative asset management firm launched in 2024. Previously, he spent 16-years at JPMorgan Chase & Co where he held titles of Chief Investment Officer, Group Treasurer, Co-Head of Global Spread Markets, Global Head of Securitized Products, and Global Head of Asset-Backed Trading.

 

Quantifying the gas shock: Every 50 cent increase is a $75B annual drag on consumer purchasing power

Source: LinkedIn

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Tuesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

China Directly Mediating Between Pakistan & Afghanistan After Weeks Of War

There's actually another hot war in the Middle East which has been raging, quite apart from the Iran-US-Israel war. Pakistan and Afghanistan have been engaged in a tense border conflict for weeks at this point. The Associated Press on Monday described the latest developments in the following:

Afghanistan's Taliban government on Monday accused Pakistan's military of targeting a Kabul hospital that treats drug addicts in airstrikes that killed four people and wounded several others.

The attack came hours after Afghan officials said the two sides exchanged fire along their common border, killing four people in Afghanistan, as the deadliest fighting between the neighbors in years entered a third week.

Image via Associated Press

It was on Feb. 27 that Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Asif declared an "all-out war" on Afghanistan, and began bombing border regions as well as the capital of Kabul.

Pakistan's army has total force domination; however, the Taliban can still inflict pain through acts of terrorism, which Pakistani cities have suffered immensely under.

Acts of terror by Islamist groups have become almost a regular occurrence in Pakistan - with many suspected of having support through Afghanistan, which is precisely what Islamabad has cited as a key rationale for the war.

But now, China is seeking to directly coordinate de-escalation, reportedly attempting to broker a ceasefire between the two neighbors.

Beijing confirmed Monday that Foreign Minister Wang Yi has held phone calls with both Pakistani and Afghan counterparts in recent days as the situation continues to deteriorate.

"The MFA Special Envoy on Afghan Affairs has been shuttling between Afghanistan and Pakistan," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said in a statement on X. "China’s embassies have been in close communication with both sides as well."

"China hopes Afghanistan and Pakistan will remain calm and exercise restraint, engage face to face ASAP, achieve a ceasefire at the earliest opportunity, and resolve differences and disputes through dialogue," Jian said.

Wiki Commons

China over the last several years has been making deeper diplomatic inroads in the Middle East and central Asia, while playing its hand at "peacemaker" - and trying to contrast itself from Washington's history of regime change wars in the same region. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 23:05

Longtime Oil Exec Worked For CIA, Helped Oust Maduro: Report

Authored by Ken Silva via HeadlineUSA,

The Wall Street Journal published a story Sunday about a longtime Chevron executive secretly working for the CIA—including by providing intel in the leadup to the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

According to the Journal, the former Chevron executive, Ali Moshiri, worked for the CIA as an informant since Hugo Chávez was in charge of the Venezuelan government. Moshiri stepped down from executive leadership at Chevron in 2017, but remained a consultant until 2024. He’s now a consultant for Venezuela’s state-run oil company, PdVSA.

The Journal reported that Mosrhi’s input with the CIA helped shape the decision to replace Maduro with his vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, rather than ousting the entire government. Moshri reportedly advised that the opposition in Venezuela, led by María Corina Machado, did not have the popular support required to run the country.

WSJ published a crazy story on a longtime Chevron exec being a CIA informant who provided intel leading up to Maduro's capture.
Chevron made an oddly specific comment in response to the report.
The CIA asset, who left Chevron in 2024, is now working for Venezuela's state oil co. pic.twitter.com/uIM2iU3pc3

— Ken Silva (@JD_Cashless) March 16, 2026

“Moshiri told the agency that if the U.S. government tried to oust the entire Maduro regime and install the democratic opposition led by María Corina Machado it would have another quagmire like Iraq on its hands,” the Journal said, citing anonymous sources.

Moshri reportedly has had a deep relationship with President Rodriguez since Chavez died in 2013. The two brokered a deal at the time in which Chevron signed a $2 billion loan deal with PdVSA.

Trump initially canceled Chevron’s license in Venezuela when he took office last year, but the company is now back in business.

“Chevron is poised to take a key role in developing Venezuela’s oil reserves, which are the largest in the world by some estimates. It is the only major U.S. oil company positioned to quickly increase output there and has said it aims to increase its Venezuelan oil production by up to 50% within the next 18 to 24 months,” the Journal reported. 

“Chevron and the few remaining Western companies there saw Rodríguez as someone they could do business with,” the Journal added.

Moshri declined to comment on his CIA connections, while Chevron said that it didn’t have anything to do with Maduro’s capture.

“Between spring of 2025 and the removal of Maduro, Chevron did not authorize anyone working for, or on behalf of, the company to engage with the CIA related to Venezuela’s leadership, including assessments of government officials or opposition leaders,” the company said.

Ken Silva is the editor of Headline USA. Follow him at x.com/jd_cashless.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 22:40

Voter ID Has Massive Public Support: Why Is Congress Standing In The Way?

The "controversy" in the US over voter ID requirements is an entirely fabricated affair, and a primary source of obstruction is the very government supposedly elected to represent the public will.  That is to say, the only people that don't support the SAVE Act are politicians, and some of them claim to be conservative.

Roughly 80% of all adult Americans support voter ID requirements for US elections; this includes a majority in every minority group and a majority among 95% of Republicans and 71% of Democrats.  In other words, voter ID is one of the few issues both sides universally agree on.  Public support was enthusiastic before Donald Trump was reelected in 2024. 

Pew Research Center (August 2025): 83% of U.S. adults strongly favored or favored “requiring all voters to show government-issued photo identification to vote.”   

Rasmussen Reports (January 2025): Asked if requiring photo ID to vote is “a reasonable measure to protect the integrity of elections,” 77% of likely voters said yes. 

Gallup (October 2024): 84% of U.S. adults favored “requiring all voters to provide photo identification at their voting place.” Also, 83% favored “requiring people who are registering to vote for the first time to provide proof of citizenship.”  

Around 90% of all countries with free elections have laws requiring ID and proof of citizenship before a person votes.  The US is one of the few democratic nations in the world that does not secure its elections from interference by non-citizens.  It is also the country most targeted by special interests for cultural replacement through mass immigration.      

It might make more sense if the US was entirely insulated and protected from illegal migrants.  One could then argue that elections don't need identification measures because there is no threat.  Of course, the US is far from secure.  The Biden Administration's open border bonanza flooded the country with approximately 10 million illegals. Official estimates suggest there were 20 million total illegals residing in the US before deportations. 

The problem is Congress.  More specifically, the Senate. 

The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act (H.R. 22) in April 2025. A subsequent, expanded version known as the SAVE America Act also passed the House on February 11, 2026 by a vote of 218-213, requiring strict documentary proof of citizenship to register and photo ID to vote in federal elections. 

The SAVE Act is relatively simple:  A person must provide an ID and proof of citizenship when registering to vote.  This could include a birth certificate or a passport.  When actually voting, that person needs to have their ID on hand at the polling station.  This is not difficult for the vast majority of citizens, yet, Democrats and a handful of Republicans assert that this will "disenfranchise" million of voters.

On the Republican side, Senate Majority Leader John Thune has been a persistent obstacle.  Democrat Senators absolutely refuse to pass the bill into law, likely because they know a contingent of illegal migrants vote in state and federal election to keep them in power.  They is no other rational reason for them to oppose the measure. 

Although Republicans hold a Senate majority (51 seats), the bill is expected to face a filibuster from Democrats, requiring 60 votes to invoke cloture and advance to a final vote. Republicans lack the necessary bipartisan support to reach this threshold.  The filibuster must be dissolved using the "nuclear option" in order to stop Democrats from sabotaging the will of the people, yet, Thune refuses.  

And just like that, John Thune signals that the Senate will not pass the SAVE Act. pic.twitter.com/7KGQzp6siD

— Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) February 4, 2026

Thune plans to allow the SAVE Act to go to a vote knowing that it will fail.  He has the power to eliminate the filibuster, but argues that the bill does not have the votes regardless.  He also asserts that the current 60 vote cloture must be kept in place despite the fact that it is not a constitutional requirement.  The filibuster is nothing more than a procedural rule created from thin air by the Senate. 

To be fair to Thune, his argument that Republicans "don't have the votes" does hold some merit. Other Republican Senators that continue to disrupt the passage of the bill include:  Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)

On the GOP side, those that defend the current filibuster argue that removing it will open the door to Democrats using the same strategy in the future when they have a simple majority (they have already threatened to do this in the past and they are guaranteed to do it should they gain control of the government in the future).  Ironically, if the SAVE Act is not passed, the chances of the Democrats returning to power is greatly increased. 

It's difficult to believe that Thune and the handful of Republicans standing in the way of the SAVE Act are only doing so because they fear setting a precedent with the filibuster.  Both Democrats and Republicans have blocked the filibuster and allowed a change in cloture in the past (in 2013 and in 2017) to secure presidential nominations of judges.  Why not do it for a bill that protects US elections and is supported by 80% of the public?

The reality is, the goal of the US Congress is not to represent the American people; their goal is to maintain the status quo.  The SAVE Act absolutely disrupts the status quo and could change the direction of elections for many years to come in favor of a more conservative and nationalist framework.  There are politicians on both sides that will do anything to prevent this.  

In response, President Trump says he will refuse to sign off on any future legislation until the SAVE Act is passed.

According to the most recent Gallup Polls, the approval rating of Congress stands near all time lows of 15%.  Furthermore, 79% of Americans disapprove of their performance and only 21% think most members deserve to be reelected.  If the Senate does not pass the SAVE Act, they risk widespread civil upheaval and much of that popular ire is going to be aimed at them.   

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 22:15