Individual Economists

Biden FBI Quietly Hid Trump Prosecution Files For Potential Post-2028 Case

Zero Hedge -

Biden FBI Quietly Hid Trump Prosecution Files For Potential Post-2028 Case

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Another trove of newly unearthed Biden-era files suggest that the FBI attempted to retain purported evidence related to its prosecution of President Donald Trump until 2030 — when he would presumably be out of office.

The documents, reported Tuesday by Just the News, add to a growing body of records that have detailed the breadth of the aggressive actions targeting Trump, Republican lawmakers and conservative organizations connected to the 2020 election.

According to the report, the retention effort came as part of a broader push to preserve materials gathered by then-Special Counsel Jack Smith following the dismissal of related cases. Such materials are typically handled under DOJ procedures once a case is closed.

The documents in question were reportedly created in 2025, as Trump was preparing to return to office in January, and relate to investigations tied to the certification of the 2020 presidential election.

The decision to retain the evidence has raised questions about whether federal officials were preserving the option to revisit the case after Trump leaves office, when DOJ rules barring the prosecution of a sitting president would no longer apply.

The case itself was closed without prejudice, meaning it could be refiled at a later date.

As reported by Just the News:

“One of the key ‘Case Closing’ documents obtained by Just the News – originating from the FBI’s Washington Field Office’s CR-15 team – was dated a couple of weeks into Trump’s second term, on February 5, 2025, when many holdover FBI agents and leaders were still in place.

The newly-released closing document from early 2025 repeated the extensive claims of criminality against Trump, which had been pursued by Smith and the bureau, and it sought to retain all of the evidence for a half decade until at least February 2030, when Trump would be a former president once more and thus when the DOJ guidance prohibiting the prosecution of a sitting president would no longer be in force.”

According to the outlet, the document — titled “Arctic Frost – Election Law Matters – Sensitive Investigative Matter” — included supporting materials such as a “Deputy Special Counsel Concurrence” and the “Retention of Evidence Approval.”

In response to the findings, FBI Director Kash Patel said he had moved to eliminate the office involved in handling the matter.

“The American people deserve to know how this egregious weaponization of power to target political opponents and President Trump happened inside an institution meant to protect them,” Patel told Just the News.

“We shut down the weaponized CR-15 squad, and we are going to keep following the facts until there is full accountability. The FBI exists to protect the country, not to preserve political prosecutions for a future administration.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/14/2026 - 14:40

With GOP Help, House Dems Force Vote To Give Another $1.3 Billion To Ukraine

Zero Hedge -

With GOP Help, House Dems Force Vote To Give Another $1.3 Billion To Ukraine

In a rebellion defying the priorities of Speaker Mike Johnson, House Democrats have teamed up with two Republicans and an independent in a parliamentary maneuver that will force a vote on a bill that would give another $1.3 billion in military aid and other assistance to Ukraine, as that country continues to lose territory in its war with Russia.  

"We look forward to seeing the House pass this bill quickly and encourage the Senate to take it up without delay. The ​brave men and women of Ukraine ​are waiting," said NY Rep. Gregory Meeks, ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and the author of the bill.  

All 215 House Democrats signed a discharge petition, a means by which representatives can bypass House leadership's agenda-setting role and compel a vote on a bill. Seldom used over House history, discharge petitions are showing their potency in a House ruled by a narrow majority, as is the case today. Most famously, Republican Rep. Thomas Massie and Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna used the maneuver last year to compel a vote on forcing the release of the Epstein investigation files. For this Ukraine bill, the Democrats were joined by two Republicans -- Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon -- along with California independent Kevin Kiley, who earlier this year left the GOP. 

Kiley's signature on the petition pushed to the required 218. "Recent Ukrainian gains have created an opportunity for peace, but the collapse of the recent ceasefire shows that leverage is needed for diplomacy to succeed," he said in a statement. That will force Johnson to bring a vote to the floor on the Ukraine Support Act, which has three major thrusts: 

  • Reaffirming US support for both Ukraine and NATO, and enacting measures for Ukraine's reconstruction
  • $1.3 billion in aid and -- get this -- up to $8 billion more in direct loans that could prove to be LINOs -- loans in name only
  • More sanctions and export controls on Russia, targeting officials, financial institutions, and the oil and mining sectors
The yellow area shows the last part of the Donetsk oblast that Russia has yet to seize control of. The Luhansk oblast is to the northeast, while the next two oblasts moving southwest are Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, with Crimea at the southernmost end (via Russia Matters

Though the House may pass the bill, the push to give more money to Ukraine will face an uphill climb in the Senate. The discharge-petition development comes as Ukraine and Russia moved on from a brief ceasefire and resumed blasting each other, though -- for now -- at a reduced tempo. Russia has continued to make gradual progress in taking control of both the Luhansk and Donetsk "oblasts" which together comprise the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine. Moscow is insisting that Ukraine's ceding of the last parts of the Donbas is a precondition to resumed peace talks.  

Not accounting for another potential $1.3 billion thrown into the Ukraine war -- to say nothing of the money pit that is the US-Israeli war on Iran -- the US government was in February projected to post a fiscal-year 2026 deficit of $1.9 trillion. Not that anyone in Washington cares. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/14/2026 - 14:20

Cable Crashes As Burnham Signals Challenge To UK PM Starmer

Zero Hedge -

Cable Crashes As Burnham Signals Challenge To UK PM Starmer

Update (1345ET): Following Wes Streeting's earlier resignation "having lost confidence" in Starmer's leadership, the UK PM is now under further pressure as Andy Burnham opened a possible path to challenge Keir Starmer for the prime minister’s job, after a Labour member of Parliament resigned and urged the Greater Manchester mayor to run for his seat.

Andy Burnham

Bloomberg reports that the MP, Josh Simons, announced plans to step down from his Manchester area seat, freeing up a House of Commons constituency that Burnham would need to mount a bid to become leader of the governing Labour Party.

“I am standing aside so that Andy Burnham can return to his home, fight to re-enter Parliament, and if elected, drive the change our country is crying out for,” Simons wrote.

“Nothing short of urgent, radical, courageous reform will make a difference.”

With UK bond markets closed, the outlet for positioning after this headline (and the anxiety over "radical reform") was the FX market and cable plunged on the news...

Burnham separately said he would seek permission from Labour’s National Executive Committee, a panel dominated by Starmer loyalists that blocked a similar bid earlier this year.

“Much bigger change is needed at a national level if everyday life is to be made more affordable again,” Burnham said in a statement to Manchester Evening News.

“This is why I now seek people’s support to return to Parliament: to bring the change we have brought to Greater Manchester to the whole of the UK and make politics work properly for people.”

There will be several hurdles standing in Burnham’s way. Starmer’s allies on Labour’s governing body blocked him from contesting a seat in the Manchester area when it became vacant earlier this year, citing the need to avoid a costly election for the mayoral post he would have to vacate. They could do so again.

*  *  *

With UK PM Starmer's leadership under increasing scrutiny, UK Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, has issued a statement via social media that he is resigning his post.

Wes Streeting

Streeting says that while there are good reasons to remain in post, he has lost confidence in Starmer’s leadership:

"As you know from our conversation earlier this week, having lost confidence in your leadership, I have concluded that it would be dishonourable and unprincipled to [remain in post]."

He went on:

"It is now clear that you will not lead the Labour Party into the next general election and that Labour MPs and Labour unions want the debate about what comes next to be a battle of ideas, not of personalities or petty factionalism.

Setting out the reasons for his resignation, he pointed to last week's "unprecedented" local elections results, in which the government's "unpopularity" was "a major and common factor" across Britain, the threat of Reform UK as one of the key reasons for his departure from government, and policy "mistakes".

"Where we need vision, we have a vacuum. Where we need direction, we have drift. This was underscored by your speech on Monday," he wrote.

Streeting is widely thought to be planning to challenge Starmer for the Labour leadership, but he does not announce the start of a formal bid in his letter.

For now there is little to no reaction in GBP or gilts (as several market observers believe any new leadership will deliver more orthodox and less "free shit" fiscal policies) but Polymarket shows the odds of Starmer being gone by the end of May are soaring...

Allies of Mr Streeting, who handed in his resignation as the Health Secretary on Thursday, have made little secret that he is ready to become prime minister and has a comprehensive plan to change the country.

Here is The Telegraph laying out what a Streeting premiership look like?

The economy

Mr Streeting said last year that he was “really uncomfortable with the level of taxation in this country”, suggesting he would resist further increases. Speaking in December, he admitted the Government was “asking a lot” of individuals and businesses with historically high taxes. But he also warned Britain had “a level of indebtedness that we need to take very seriously”, indicating that tax cuts would also be unlikely. He has previously defended Labour’s decision to increase employers’ National Insurance, saying the raise had paid for more NHS appointments. Mr Streeting has previously proposed several radical changes to the tax system. In a 2020 interview, he suggested equalising capital gains tax with income tax, replacing inheritance tax with a “lifetime gifts tax” and increasing corporation tax. He also said all new tax and spending plans should be put through a “progressive impact test” to ensure they helped people on low and middle incomes. But unlike his Left-wing rivals, he has also long advocated that Labour should stick to strict fiscal rules, balancing day-to-day spending with tax revenues.

Defense

Mr Streeting caused a stir in Westminster last month when he suggested that savings should be found from the welfare budget to fund defence. The Health Secretary acknowledged that Britain needed to put more money into the military and that the cash “has to come from somewhere”. While he ruled out taking the money from the NHS budget, he signalled an openness to find it from other areas of spending, such as benefits. Other than on that issue, Mr Streeting has largely backed Sir Keir’s plans to boost defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP by the mid-2030s. Last month, he defended the Government’s handling of the military, insisting that Britain was still “the cornerstone of European defence and security”. Defending the repeated delays to the Government’s defence investment plan, he said Downing Street was taking the time to “get it right”.

Brexit

Mr Streeting is one of the most high-profile Remainers in the Cabinet and was a passionate campaigner for Britain to remain in the EU. Last year, he strongly suggested Labour should consider taking the UK back into a customs union with Europe, saying it would boost growth. But he did insist that the manifesto pledge not to return to freedom of movement with the Continent must stay, ruling out the single market. “The best way for us to get more growth into our economy is a deeper trading relationship with the EU,” he told The Observer in December. “The challenge is any economic partnership we have can’t lead to a return to freedom of movement.” Mr Streeting has long been an advocate of closer EU ties. In 2018, while a backbencher, he rebelled against then leader Jeremy Corbyn, calling for him to commit Labour to keeping Britain in the single market and a customs union.

Immigration

Mr Streeting is naturally a liberal on immigration and has repeatedly signalled his discomfort at the Government’s clampdown on visas and asylum. He criticised Sir Keir’s “island of strangers” speech and has previously said Britain relies on migrants to care for an ageing population. Last November, he admitted he was not comfortable with plans laid out by the Home Secretary to deport families who arrived in the UK illegally. In a 2018 speech, Mr Streeting argued that “we rely on attracting people from overseas, particularly with our ageing population and shrinking working-age population”. But as far back as then, the Health Secretary was stressing the point that Britain needed to increase education and training for its domestic workforce. It is a principle he has taken into government, criticising the health service’s reliance on foreign doctors and admitting voters had “lost confidence in the immigration system”.

The NHS

One of the most notable things Mr Streeting has done in his two years in post is abolishing NHS England, the world’s largest quango. The decision came as a surprise to Westminster and demonstrated that the Health Secretary was unafraid to make significant structural changes to government. It will also put him and his ministers back in direct control of the NHS, hinting at a hands-on approach and a willingness to take on personal responsibility. Waiting lists have fallen on Mr Streeting’s watch and pledges to further improve the health service would be a core part of his premiership. He has also shown himself willing to go to war with the medical unions, warning that their pay demands for junior doctors would “break the country”. But although he has repeatedly spoken of the need to reform the NHS, any change to its funding model would be off the table under Mr Streeting. The Health Secretary has attacked Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, for suggesting the UK should consider moving to a French-style public insurance model.

Streeting is only one of the party figures likely to throw their hats into the ring in the event of a formal leadership contest. Former deputy premier Angela Rayner said Thursday morning that she had been cleared of wrongdoing in a probe into her tax affairs, while there is a large faction on the party’s left working to secure a parliamentary seat for Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who can’t run without one.

For Starmer to face a formal leadership challenge, a potential successor would have to be nominated by 20% of Labour Members of Parliament. The party currently has 403 MPs, putting that threshold at 81. The ensuing contest would be decided by preferential votes by Labour Party members and affiliates, with precise voting eligibility set by Labour’s governing body.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/14/2026 - 13:45

Separate Peace? Saudi Arabia Floats Regional Non-Aggression Pact With Iran

Zero Hedge -

Separate Peace? Saudi Arabia Floats Regional Non-Aggression Pact With Iran

Are regional Gulf countries seeking to forge there own separate peace deals with Iran, apart from the United States? That's what fresh Thursday reporting in the Financial Times suggests.

The report says Saudi Arabia is supposedly considering a non-aggression pact between the Middle East states and Iran after the military conflict between the United States and Iran ends, the FT indicates.

via Express Tribune

Citing diplomatic sources, it describes that Riyadh is assessing a model of the Helsinki Process, which helped reduce tensions in Europe during the Cold War, and created an uneasy East-West peace in post-WW2 Europe. 

The driving rationale behind the potential diplomatic framework is that while Iran is "weakened," the reality is that it still "poses a threat to its neighbors."

An Arab diplomat cited by FT said that a non-aggression pact modelled along the lines of the Helsinki process is something likely to be embraced by most Arab and Muslim states, as well as by Iranian leader.

"It all depends on who is in it - in the current climate, you are not going to be able to get Iran and Israel... Without Israel, it could be counterproductive because after Iran, they are seen as the biggest source of conflict. But Iran is not going anywhere, and this is why the Saudis are pushing it," the source stated.

The Abraham Accords have theoretically attempted to build a normalization and non-aggression foundation involving Arab states and Israel, but other countries and populations in the region are suspicious of it for the very fact that it is seen fundamentally as a pro-US and pro-Israeli axis of alignment

As for for Tehran and Riyadh, they recently have experience with direct, good faith talks, given that it was only in 2023 that China made history when it brokered a landmark normalization deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia - after which mutual embassies opened and went into operation.

This week, Reuters and other sources revealed for the first time that at the height of Trump's Operation Epic Fury which began in late February and endured through March into early April, the UAE directly fired back on Iran as it was under attack by drones and missiles. Also interesting is the fresh revelation that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu made a secret visit to the UAE as the Iran war was in full swing - though UAE has officially denied it, perhaps not wanting to inflame Arab public sentiment.

Kuwait also reportedly directly attacked Iranian interests, and additionally the Saudis attacked Shia Iraqi militias seen as cooperating with Iran.

Interestingly, US intelligence and the governments involved kept this under wraps for many weeks, and it suggests just how close the world was to witnessing a broader regional war that could have quickly spun out of control. Before the series of disclosures, it was widely assumed that only the United States military was 'defending' the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. But clearly some of these countries were hitting back against the Islamic Republic on their own.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/14/2026 - 13:40

After "Fantastic Day" With Xi, Trump Touts 200-Jet Boeing Deal As China Offers Hormuz Help

Zero Hedge -

After "Fantastic Day" With Xi, Trump Touts 200-Jet Boeing Deal As China Offers Hormuz Help

Summary: 

  • Trump says Boeing Secured a 200 'Big' jet order from China

  • Trump says President Xi wants Hormuz reopened, won't give Tehran weapons 

  • Trump, Xi Put Hormuz, Iran, Trade, Taiwan At Center Of Historic Beijing Summit

Boeing-China Jet Deal

A highly anticipated Boeing jet deal appears to have materialized after the first day of President Trump's summit with President Xi Jinping. 

Fox News reports that Trump said Boeing secured an order for 200 "big" jets from China. He said the order was initially for 150, but the final figure will be 200

Trump Says China Will Help On Reopening Hormuz 

It is nearly midnight in Beijing, and President Trump is still speaking on the record with corporate media, offering additional insight on the first day of the summit and state banquet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

In comments to Fox News, Trump said Xi offered to help pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling that Beijing may be willing to use its leverage over Tehran.

This comes as energy insiders and traders warn that continued closure of the Strait through the end of the month could spark a worsening energy shock.

Trump also said Xi would not provide weapons to Tehran.

Trump, Xi Put Hormuz, Iran, Trade, Taiwan At Center Of Historic Beijing Summit

President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are currently seated at the main table at a state banquet. President Xi called the visit historic, and said U.S.-China ties are "stable" amid talks with Trump's team.

According to a White House readout, Trump and Xi agreed that the Strait of Hormuz should remain open to free navigation and that Tehran should not charge a fee to ships using the critical waterway.

Key notes from the White House readout (courtesy of Bloomberg):

  • Trump Had A Good Meeting With Xi: White House Official

  • Leaders Discussed Increasing China's purchases of Agriculture

  • Trump, Xi Agreed Hormuz Must Remain Open: White House Official

  • U.S. Says Xi Made Clear China Opposes Militarization of Hormuz

  • Both Sides Agreed Iran Can Never Have A Nuclear Weapon: U.S.

  • U.S. Says Xi Expressed Interest in Purchasing More American Oil

Beijing also signaled interest in buying more U.S. oil to reduce China's reliance on crude and crude products transiting the Hormuz chokepoint. This signifies how the U.S.-Iran conflict is rewiring global energy flows.

Trump-Xi talks also covered fentanyl, securing market access for U.S. companies in the mainland market, and increasing Chinese investment in American industries and purchases of U.S. agricultural products.

"American enterprises are deeply involved in China's reform and opening up, a process from which both sides have benefited," Xi told the leaders of U.S. companies accompanying Trump on the trip. Those CEOs include Tesla's Elon Musk, Apple's Tim Cook, Boeing's Kelly Ortberg, and Nvidia's Jensen Huang.

Xi continued, "China's door to the outside world will only open wider."

On the agricultural front, Bloomberg reported that China renewed import licenses for hundreds of U.S. beef plants, reviving trade that will help ranchers and farmers.

Xi was quoted as saying that China and the U.S. agree to build a "constructive and strategically stable relationship" that will serve as a framework for China-U.S. relations over the next three years and beyond.

On the subject of Taiwan, Xi told Trump bluntly that Sino-U.S. relations would enter an "extremely dangerous place" if Trump ignored Beijing's demands over Taiwan.

Back at the state banquet, Trump invited Xi to Washington on Sept. 24.

Overall, it appears that day one of Trump's summit with Xi was positive.

Earlier, Trump and Xi took a walk at an ancient temple in Beijing.

"The China-U.S. Summit is ongoing, with expectations for any breakthroughs low," UBS analyst Justinus Steinhorst told clients earlier.

UBS analyst Shuo Yang noted, "It has been a subdued Asia session, with markets in wait-and-see mode into the Trump-Xi meeting."

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joined CNBC and said the U.S. and China are seeking to lower tariffs on some trade, starting with $30 billion in non-critical areas. Bessent also noted that Chinese officials are "doing what they can" to reopen Hormuz. 

Bessent added that Boeing is nearing a "large" plane order from China, but did not specify whether those orders would be for narrow-body or wide-body jets.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/14/2026 - 13:30

Are Markets F***ed? Collum And Pomboy To Address Everything Bubble

Zero Hedge -

Are Markets F***ed? Collum And Pomboy To Address Everything Bubble

LIVE NOW:

*************

As the S&P continues to reach new highs in the mid 7000s, leaving the COVID era 3000s as a forgotten fevered dream… and AI euphoria fueling increasingly speculative bets across Wall Street and Main Street, the sane among us need to ask the question: when will reality hit?

In tonight’s ZeroHedge debate, hosted by the legendary Dave Collum, Macro Mavens founder Stephanie Pomboy and Michael Lebowitz will break down the most dangerously overvalued sectors of today’s market. From AI to private credit… and debate how, when, and where the unwind may begin.

The discussion will examine whether the AI boom has become detached from economic reality, whether Nvidia’s 43 PE ratio makes any sense, and whether private credit gating is the canary in the coal mine. With liquidity tightening beneath the surface and credit conditions deteriorating, Collum and the gang will discuss ways to preserve wealth before the cycle turns.

The conversation will also focus heavily on the Federal Reserve’s next chapter under incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose prior statements indicate a hawkish stance… but that’s been true of past chairs before they held the helm. Is Warsh a genuine monetary hawk willing to tolerate market pain to restore credibility to the dollar and contain inflation? Or will he ultimately cave under political and financial pressure like Jerome Powell during COVID?

For investors trying to position themselves ahead of what could be the next major repricing event, or for those who just want to hear about how horrible the economy really is… join Collum, Pomboy, and Lebowitz this evening.

The debate will stream live on the ZH X account and homepage at 7pm ET. See you there.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/14/2026 - 12:20

Hedge Fund & Alternative Manager Forum 2026

The Big Picture -

 

 

I am hosting a few panels today at the Bloomberg Hedge Fund & Alternative Emerging Manager Forum.

We just did a version of this in San Francisco last month — these are always fascinating and informative. What makes these events so special is the Bloomberg special sauce — they have all the data needed to select the top-performing managers.

My views on Alts have only slightly moderated over the years: If you have access to a top decile fund, you should strongly consider it. As to all of the rest…

~~~

Here are the details:

New & Emerging Manager Panel
Discussion with new and emerging fund leaders about launching and scaling differentiated strategies, including AI use cases in investment processes and operations.

Featuring:

Paul Podolsky
Founder and Chief Investment Officer
Kate Capital

Michael Alfaro
Chief Investment Officer
Gallo Partners

Nadine Buckland
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Zenzic Capital

 

Bloomberg:

The alternative investment landscape is evolving rapidly, with hedge fund managers navigating unprecedented market volatility, rising investor expectations, and accelerating advances in technology. The Bloomberg Hedge Fund & Alternative Manager Forum 2026 brings together senior leaders from hedge funds, multi-managers, family offices, and private capital firms for an afternoon of strategic insights, networking, and innovation.

As the lines between traditional and alternative investing continue to blur, this event will explore what it takes to stand out in today’s competitive environment—from launching a fund to scaling operations and embracing new approaches to data, research, and risk. Sessions will feature industry-leading allocators, emerging managers, and experts at the forefront of global macro strategy, AI innovation, and private markets expansion.

Should be fun!

Swing by if you are in town…

 

 

Previously:
Video: Bloomberg Hedge Fund/Alt Fund Manager (June 30, 2025)

Bloomberg Hedge Fund & Alternative Manager Forum 2025 (June 24, 2025)

Bloomberg’s Hedge Fund Forum 2024 (June 4, 2024)

 

The post Hedge Fund & Alternative Manager Forum 2026 appeared first on The Big Picture.

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