Obamacare Premiums Set To Soar Ahead Of Open Enrollment

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Premiums for people buying health insurance through Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplaces are soaring ahead of the start of the open enrollment period, new data show.

Premiums for people who are buying insurance for 2026 in state-run marketplaces are rising 17 percent, the health nonprofit KFF said on Oct. 28. Premiums for enrollees using Healthcare.gov, the federally-run marketplace, are spiking on average 30 percent.

The enrollment period for the ACA—former President Barack Obama’s health care law, commonly known as Obamacare—will open on Nov. 1 for most marketplaces.

Factors behind the increasing premiums include higher hospital costs and more people using weight loss drugs called GLP-1s, KFF said.

The increases do not take into account the impact that the expiration of enhanced subsidies would have, KFF said. Congress approved enhanced subsidies for Obamacare in 2021, and later extended them through the end of 2025.

Democrats want a continuation of the subsidies included in legislation to end the government shutdown, but Republicans have said they will not negotiate on the matter until Congress reopens the government.

Most Americans are insured through their employers, but 24 million obtained health insurance through a marketplace during the 2025 enrollment period, which ended in January. Seventeen million obtained insurance through Healthcare.gov.

The average monthly premium in 2025 was $619 before subsidies, or tax credits, and $113 a month after the credits.

More than 90 percent of people who bought insurance received one of the subsidies, which have been available since marketplaces opened in 2014 to households with annual incomes between 100 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level. That ceiling was removed in 2021.

The new KFF analysis was based in part on data released on Tuesday by the Department of Health and Human Services, which started letting people who utilize Healthcare.gov go window shopping for insurance.

The average premium for 2026 after subsidies is projected to be $50 per month, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, a division of the department, said in a fact sheet. Similar to 2025, the tax credits are projected to cover 91 percent of premiums for the cheapest plans.

The fact sheet did not mention price increases or the looming expiration of enhanced subsidies. The division did not respond to a request for comment.

States that run their own marketplaces previously released data showing insurance prices are increasing and warning that they will rise further if Congress does not extend the enhanced credits.

Most Colorado residents who buy insurance will see an average premium increase of 101 percent, the Colorado Division of Insurance said. It estimated that about 75,000 residents will no longer buy insurance due to the jump.

Washington state officials estimated that net premiums would increase 65 percent for recipients of the enhanced subsidies if they end up expiring.

Justin Zimmerman, commissioner of the New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance, said in a statement that without the subsidies, people “will be confronted by startlingly higher prices for coverage.”

If the credits do expire, monthly premiums will soar by 114 percent on average, according to KFF.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 11:05

North Korea Flexes With Missile Test While Trump Tours Asia

North Korea continues flexing its military might this week, but this time notably at a moment President Donald Trump is making stops in several Asian nations, including a visit to South Korea, where he's set to meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping.

On Tuesday, North Korea declared a successful test of a sea-to-surface cruise missile. It marked the second such missile test by Pyongyang in two weeks. Some sources have dubbed it as a 'strategic' test, indicating the missile was nuclear-capable.

"Important successes are being made in putting our nuclear forces on a practical basis… for steadily expanding the sphere of application of the war deterrents," Pak Jong Chon, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, said of the test.

"We should steadily update our combat capability. In particular, it is our responsible mission and duty to ceaselessly toughen the nuclear combat posture," he added.

King Jong-Un's military had fired off short-range missiles on Oct. 22 - which importantly was the first significant arms test in five months.

Earlier this week President Trump indicated he'd be willing to meet with Kim if Pyongyang reached out and was willing, but this offer has been met with silence.

Instead Kim has been increasingly deepening his relations with Russia. DPRK troops have even died fighting on behalf of Russia in the Ukraine war.

On Tuesday, North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui met with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, in Moscow - with a subsequent North Korean government statement describing the talks occurred at a "time when the strategic and alliance character of the relations between the two countries has been further consolidated and their might and vitality have been fully demonstrated under the outstanding and seasoned guidance of the heads of state of the two countries."

⚡️ North Korea tests ‘STRATEGIC cruise missile’ — Yonhap

Launch comes as Trump heads to South Korea

Missile flew over Yellow Sea, ‘DESTROYED’ target pic.twitter.com/b97NbedEHk

— RT (@RT_com) October 28, 2025

"The Russian side expressed full support for the DPRK side’s efforts and measures to firmly defend the state’s present position, security interests and sovereign rights," the foreign ministry added.

"And the DPRK side expressed invariable sympathy and support for all the measures taken by the Russian side to remove the root cause of the Ukrainian dispute and attain the strategic goal of special military operations," the statement continued, reaffirming support for Putin's 'Special Military Operation'.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 10:45

 

This was a fun, and surprisngly intense Big Think discussion. They throw a ton of questions at you for hours, and then edit it down to 60 minutes, minus the questions. Full transcript is here;

shorter 5-10 minute excerpts are more watchable — and you can find them by specific topic. See these subjects and time marks (also at YouTube):

0:00 Why your brain makes you a bad investor
2:28 Using our brains in ways they weren’t built for
3:57 Cognitive biases that derail investing
6:52 Emotional Bias
8:22 Gamestop and speculative bets
10:22 Narrative fallacy
12:01 Overconfidence bias and the Dunning-Kruger effect and
12:44 Confirmation bias
14:56 Conformity bias
16:25 Loss aversion
17:47 Anchoring
18:41 Tribal bias
20:19 Recency bias
23:51 Investing is a loser’s game. Here’s how to win
24:28 “The Loser’s Game”
27:28 2% of stocks are responsible for all returns
30:21 The odds against you picking successful stocks
31:52 Maximizing your ability to compound
32:02 Automate
33:03 Diversification
34:23 Costs
37:48 Rebalancing
39:54 Ignoring forecasts
42:15 Market timing
44:29 How financial media sets investors up for failure
46:06 The attention economy
46:55 What is margin debt?
48:03 How negative media influences our investments
50:30 Denominator blindness
54:07 Key qualities in financial media
56:35 Social media and investing

 

See also:
The Barry Ritholtz Interview: “Smart is good. Smart and lucky is better”

 

 

The post How to Avoid the Traps that Most Investors Fall For appeared first on The Big Picture.

Google Executive Admits Company Made 'Mistakes' While Handling Complaints Of Election Fraud

Authored by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Google executive said the company made “mistakes” while handling complaints of election fraud during a U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation hearing held Oct. 29.

Google's Government Affairs and Public Policy Centers of Excellence head Markham Erickson was questioned on Capitol Hill on Oct. 29, 2025. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who serves as the committee chairman, showed screenshots of a YouTube video that allegedly highlighted how former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Donald Trump both voiced concerns about election fraud and then asked Markham Erickson, who leads Google’s Government Affairs and Public Policy Centers of Excellence, why the video was taken down.

“YouTube deleted it, blocked it and gave the creator a strike, a step toward deleting his entire channel,” Cruz said. ”Why would you remove a journalist’s record of the claims of election fraud from both democrats and republicans?”

The Epoch Times has been unable to confirm specifically which YouTube video, owned by Google’s parent company Alphabet, Inc., was being discussed during the hearing and has reached out to Cruz’s press office for a copy of the screenshots that were mentioned.

Erickson responded: “We have election policies and we’ve had election policies for a long time to ensure that the most important thing that citizens can do, which is to vote, they can find relevant and useful information on our platforms. Where to vote, for example. What time the ...”

Cruz interrupted Erickson and reiterated that his question was regarding a blocked YouTube video that discussed claims of election fraud made by presidential candidates from both parties, not voting.

“Then YouTube reversed that decision and unblocked it and you can see on the right [side of the posterboard], instead you decided not to block it, but simply to demonetize it,” Cruz said. “It is Google’s testimony that you regret nothing. Is that right?”

Erickson said that after the states had certified the 2020 election, YouTube adopted a policy to take down content that claimed there was “widespread fraud, or errors or glitches.”

“When the chance of real-world harm had dissipated, we removed that policy,” Erickson said.

Erickson did not comment on how the YouTube video allegedly shared Clinton’s criticisms regarding the 2016 election.

The 2016 Democratic nominee previously alleged the election had voter suppression, voter purging, and hacking. She even called Trump an “illegitimate president” during an interview with CBS News in September 2019.

When Cruz asked Erickson whether Google wanted to apologize or express regret for how it handled complaints of election fraud.

“We make mistakes,” Erickson responded.

“Name one,” Cruz said.

“We make those mistakes, Senator,” Erickson replied, without giving details.

“Name one,” Cruz said again. “Like you’re saying, was this a mistake? Yes or no?”

The Google executive reiterated that decisions were made “independently.”

“At the time, Senator, our trust and integrity teams, when looking at content on YouTube that claimed there was widespread fraud after the states had certified the validity of the election, we believed it was appropriate to take action against that content,” he said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 09:45

ECB Keeps Rate Unchanged As Expected

As widely expected (and previewed), the ECB held rates unchanged (they key deposit rate remained at 2%, the refinancing rate was unch at 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility stayed at 2.4%) and also kept its guidance, unchanged as well. In what was a carbon copy of its previous statement, the ECB said it was not pre-committing to a particular policy path; said  inflation remained close to its target; and said future decision would be based on risks to inflation outlook.

Here are the highlights from the statement on the Economy...

• Economy has continued to grow despite challenging global environment.
• Robust labor market, solid private sector balance sheets and ECBs past interest rate cuts remain important source of resilience.
• Outlook still uncertain due to global trade and geopolitics.

And on Policy

• ECB not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
• Will follow data dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determine appropriate monetary policy stance

The statement was rather optimistic on growth, although it highlights persistent uncertainty:

The economy has continued to grow despite the challenging global environment. The robust labor market, solid private sector balance sheets and the Governing Council’s past interest rate cuts remain important sources of resilience. However, the outlook is still uncertain, owing particularly to ongoing global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions.”

Ahead of the ECB announcement, the latest data showed that Q3 GDP for the euroarea had come in at 0.2%, just fractionally above expectations. 

While the meeting was down the center, some like Oliver Rakau at Oxford Economics sense the doves starting to make a push ahead of the December meeting.

Don't know about you, but I am not very comforted, when a CB needs to point to solid private sector balance sheets, when justifying its inaction despite projections showing 2yrs of sub-2% inflation. But also, 1st para sounds a bit like doves started to make a push heading to Dec pic.twitter.com/FmohCoLmp2

— Oliver Rakau (@OliverRakau) October 30, 2025

And here’s the reaction from Mark Wall, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank:

“Where’s the smoking gun for a rate cut? Despite the US tariffs, despite all the various sources of uncertainty, the European economy continues to eke out some growth. Economic ‘resilience’ is keeping the ECB doves in check, and the policy pause on the rails.”

In kneejerk reaction, the EURUSD - which had been sliding all day - staged a modest rebound from session lows.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 09:36

Carvana Shares Plunge Nearly 10% Despite Strong Headline Earnings

Carvana shares are down almost 10% this morning even as the online used-car retailer delivered another quarter of impressive looking headline results, highlighting growing skepticism that its financial rebound may be outpacing the realities of a shaky auto market.

Revenue jumped to $5.65 billion from $3.66 billion a year earlier, powered by a 44% increase in retail units sold to 155,941, according to Bloomberg. Net income rose to $263 million, or $1.03 per share, compared with $148 million, or 64 cents, a year ago. Adjusted earnings hit $1.50 per share, well ahead of expectations, while adjusted EBITDA climbed to $637 million. The company projected fourth-quarter retail unit sales above 150,000 vehicles.

CEO Ernie Garcia celebrated the scale of the recovery, telling shareholders: “Not only is this growth happening at the same time we are producing margins higher than have ever been reported by any other automotive retailer, but it is also happening at a very significant scale.”

It's a claim the market now seems to be skeptical of.

Beneath that demand, the auto sector is showing cracks. A major parts supplier (First Brands) and a subprime auto lender (Tricolor) recently failed, while delinquencies on auto loans — particularly among younger buyers — are rising fast. Auto loan delinquencies in 2025 have surged to historic levels, driven by higher vehicle prices, interest rates, and overall affordability issues for consumers. 

Analysts warn that lower-income consumers are under growing strain. “There has been nothing but bad news recently on the auto sector when it comes to the low-end consumer,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, told Bloomberg

Carvana’s soaring valuation has also drawn scrutiny. The stock has jumped 78% this year and trades at roughly 53 times earnings, a multiple more in line with Silicon Valley high-flyers than with traditional auto dealers. That leaves little room for disappointment. “Any stumble in guidance, and momentum traders could hit reverse just as fast as they hit the gas,” said Dave Mazza, chief executive of Roundhill Financial.

On top of that, short sellers have accused the company in recent years of aggressive accounting, cutting corners on title transfers, and relying on financing practices that could backfire in a downturn. While the company has denied wrongdoing and tightened procedures, critics argue the rapid expansion masked deeper structural risks.

Other controversy has followed Carvana since its pandemic-era surge. After becoming a meme-stock favorite, shares crashed 98% in 2022 when losses mounted and debt worries ballooned. The current rebound has been fueled by cost-cutting, slower inventory growth, and a massive debt restructuring — moves that bought time but did not erase long-term questions about sustainability.

Meanwhile, the company's CEO and his father have sold billions of dollars in Carvana stock. 

The company’s pitch is that online scale and logistics efficiency can eventually outclass brick-and-mortar rivals such as CarMax and Lithia Motors. Yet critics argue the business remains capital-intensive — requiring costly facilities, fleets, and reconditioning centers — despite its tech-driven image. As Karobaar Capital’s Haris Khurshid put it: “It’s basically a capital intensive retailer wearing a tech premium.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 09:20

Senate GOP And Democrats Working On Shutdown 'Off-Ramp' For Next Week

With the government shutdown firmly in its fourth week and SNAP beneficiaries threatening cannibalism (see below), Senate Republicans and Democrats are working behind the scenes on a proposal to reopen the government next week - with centrist Democrats arguing behind the scenes that their party has successfully highlighted soaring healthcare costs. 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (D-SD)

Democrats say the higher costs are now set in stone due to Republicans' refusal to negotiate a deal to extend Biden-era subsidies that are set to expire - in yet another example of anything that's supposed to be 'temporary' becoming a new goalpost (*cough gerrymandering cough*). 

"My assessment is that we’ve won anything that we can possibly win and the costs of continuing the shutdown are going to be felt by people who are going to food banks and federal employees," one Democratic senator told The Hill, who argued that any political benefit to extending the shutdown is about to be outweighed by the chaos that's about to be unleashed if SNAP benefits end for 42 million Americans.

Some Democratic senators are privately speculating that if their party does well in the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia scheduled for Tuesday, they can declare a political victory and begin to finalize the endgame for reopening government.

Virginia, which will be a Senate battleground in 2026, is home to approximately 140,000 federal employees.

And of course, the largest federal employee union, the American Federation of Government Employees - which represents 820,000 federal and DC government workers - sided with the Republican plan to pass a clean (pork-free) resolution to kick the can and reopen the government - with union president Everett Kelley saying in a Monday statement that "both parties have made their point," and that it's time to "end this shutdown today." 

On Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (D-SD) told reporters that moderate Democrats are looking for an "off-ramp" for the shutdown, and he's willing to talk about extending the ACA subsidies after the government has reopened - and has even offered them a vote on their own proposal to extend the tax credits beyond December. 

That said, he won't negotiate specific ACA concessions with Democrats while the government remains closed.

"It’s just a question of whether or not they are at some point willing to take ‘yes’ for an answer," Thune said of moderate Democrats - however he's only going to offer them existing Republican proposals - such as getting the appropriations back on track, voting on the expiring subsidies, and committing to further the discussion on healthcare once the federal government is back up and running.

"The stakes are getting higher, which we knew they would. As the shutdown drags on, it becomes more painful for more people," said Thune. 

"What I’ve told them all along is as soon as they’re ready to open up the government that we will ensure that they have a process whereby they can have their chance to get their legislation voted on, their policies voted on," he said of his discussions with Senate Democratic colleagues. "They’ve become more interested and I hope that continues."

"They’re looking for an off-ramp," he continued, noting that the expiration of SNAP benefits is creating a sense of urgency. 

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) - pictured below getting badgered by Dianne Feinstein a few years ago...

...said that bipartisan talks to end the shutdown have picked up steam given the approaching SNAP-mageddon.

"There is a good group of folks who realize we are well past time to have this behind us. This is not good. This is not good from a governance perspective. This doesn’t reflect well on anybody and it is hurting real people [in] real time so let’s figure out a way to end it," she said, noting that the disagreements that need to be solved have been discussed at length. 

"There have been enough of these pieces that have been talked through that if somebody can just diagram out how it all comes together and present, yes, I do think it’s possible" to end the shutdown next week, she told reporters.

"There’s no great magic in how we get out of this. It’s the same stuff we’ve been talking about for months,” she continued. 

And if they don't fix this, they're gonna be eating more than the dogs and cats...

NEW: Woman says she will start eating white people if EBT is taken away, says EBT recipients will build their own nation & grow their own food.

"We are going to eat regardless, even if we have to hunt you animals down & roast & eat you, the delectable crackers & cheese."

"We… pic.twitter.com/Jqat3wgM9o

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 29, 2025

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 09:00

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.8% Below 2022 Peak

Excerpt:

It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers!

In the August Case-Shiller house price index released Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 77% above the bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 9.6% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 1.0% above the bubble peak.

People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $446,000 today adjusted for inflation (49% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.

The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.
...
The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).

In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 2.8% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 3.1% below the recent peak in 2022.

Both the real National index and the Comp-20 index decreased in August. The real National index has decreased for 8 consecutive months.

It has now been 39 months since the real peak in house prices. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory)

There is much more in the article!

ECB Preview: A "Good Place" Leads To No Cut

Courtesy of Newsquawk

Summary

• ECB policy announcement due Thursday October 30th at 13:15GMT/09:15EDT
• Expectations are for the ECB to stand pat on the Deposit Rate at 2.0%
• The lack of material economic developments since September has set the meeting up as a non-event

OVERVIEW: With the ECB viewing policy as being in a "good place" and a lack of material economic developments since the September meeting, the upcoming announcement is expected to be a non-event. There are several risks surrounding the Eurozone economy, however, absent a material escalation, policy is priced to be on hold for the foreseeable.

PRIOR MEETING: As expected, the ECB opted to stand pat on policy by holding the Deposit rate at 2.0%. Also in-fitting with consensus, the statement reiterated that policymakers will maintain their meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent approach, whilst not pre-committing to a particular policy path. As such, attention turned to the accompanying macro projections, which saw the 2026 inflation forecast only revised up to 1.7% from 1.6%; consensus looked for a more notable upgrade to 1.9%. This elicited a dovish reaction in markets with the forecast suggesting that the ECB may need to loosen policy further in order to avoid a policy undershoot. However, at the follow-up press conference, Lagarde caused an unwind of some of this initial price action after noting that minimal deviations from target will not necessarily justify movement. Other hawkish elements of the press conference came via the upgrade to the ECB's risk assessment, with risks now seen as more balanced vs. previous guidance of "tilted to the downside". Furthermore, Lagarde stated that the disinflationary process was over and policy is in a "good place".

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS: September HICP inflation ticked higher from 2.0% to 2.2%, core inflation advanced to 2.4% from 2.3% and services rose to 3.2% from 3.1%. However, writing at the time, ING noted the increase in the headline print was mainly due to energy effects, which are expected to fade. The ECB's September Consumer Expectation Survey saw the 1 yr inflation forecast slip to 2.7% from 2.8% with the 3yr holding steady at 2.5%. In terms of market gauges of inflation, the 5y5y inflation forward has slipped to 2.06% from circa 2.09% at the time of the September meeting. From a growth perspective, Q3 GDP data is not released until the morning of the announcement. However, more timely survey data from S&P Global saw the October manufacturing PMI rise to 50.0 from 49.8, services increase to 52.6 from 51.3, leaving the composite at 52.2 vs. prev. 51.2. In the accompanying report, it was observed that economic growth in the eurozone, even though accelerating a bit, has been much weaker than it otherwise could have been due to the soft performance of the French economy. In the labour market, the unemployment rate remains just above the historic low @ 6.3%.

UPCOMING MEETING: The ECB is expected to maintain policy conditions in October, with all respondents to Reuters forecasting an unchanged outcome and market pricing implying just a 2% chance of a cut from the current 2.00% Deposit Rate. As stated above, the messaging from the prior meeting was one of policymakers viewing policy as being in a "good place". Since economic conditions have not changed since September and there are no accompanying macro projections, the upcoming confab is expected to be a non-event. More specifically, ING writes that reasons for an uneventful announcement are due to 1) little new information available. 2) No pressing urgencies given that the French political situation has not escalated. 3) Doves and hawks are keeping their powder dry until December (which will see the debut 2028 forecasts). For December, markets price just 1 bp of loosening. However, ING writes that downside risks still remain, with the risk of "a delayed adverse impact of US tariffs, the stronger euro exchange rate, French politics or a delay in Germany’s fiscal stimulus." The desk adds that if any of these materialise, " we can expect the ECB to engage in one or two more rate cuts".

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 08:44

Futures Drop As Trump-Xi Summit Underwhelms; Mag 7 Earnings Disappoint

US equity futures drop as the Trump-Xi trade truce was in line with expectations and hasn’t provided impetus for stocks to move another leg higher, after Fed Chair Powell’s pushback on another rate cut in December being a lock, while Mag7 stocks are under pressure (META -7.8%, MSFT -3.2%) as we await AAPL and AMZN tonight. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2% with another wave of results due and nearly half of S&P 500 companies now having reported. Pre-market we are seeing Defensives over Cyclicals, with the exception of Metals / Miners. Gold / Silver continue their rebound as Ags and Energy are lower. Bond yields are trading near session highs, up 2bps to 4.10%, while the USD is near session highs. Besides the trade deal with China, US / Canada resumed talks and US / Mexico extended their trade truce an additional 90 days, earlier this week. The US economic calendar remains blank as government shutdown delays publication of weekly jobless claims data and 3Q GDP estimate. Fed speaker slate includes Bowman (9:55am) and Logan (1:15pm). Besides Amazon and Apple reporting after the close, the non-Mag7 earnings focus is mostly on healthcare. Ex-US, the ECB rate decision comes at 9.15a EST.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks mixed: Alphabet (GOOGL) gained 7% on Q3 results that beat expectations. Analysts are especially positive on its cloud-computing business. Meta Platforms (META) sank 8% after the Facebook parent reported third-quarter results and gave an outlook. Analysts noted some concern over the company’s heavy spending. Microsoft (MSFT) was down 2% after the software company reported its first-quarter results. Analysts are broadly positive on the report, especially growth in its Azure cloud-computing business, but said investor expectations were elevated (Apple (AAPL) +0.7%, Nvidia (NVDA) is flat, Tesla (TSLA) -0.5%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.5%)

• Calix (CALX) rises 8% after the application software company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is above the analyst consensus.
• Carvana (CVNA) falls 7% after the used-car retailer failed to live up to “elevated buy-side bar.” The company said its loan performance was solid amid rising concerns about delinquencies and distress in subprime auto lending.
• Chipotle (CMG) falls 17% after the restaurant chain lowered its full-year projection for comparable sales for a third time this year as customer traffic at its restaurants fell.
• Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) gains 4% after raising its full-year guidance as revenue from its blockbuster weight loss and diabetes drugs beat analysts’ estimates in the third quarter.
• FMC Corp (FMC) sinks 29% after the agricultural chemical company reported worse-than-expected revenues and cut its guidance for the full year below analyst estimates.
• FormFactor (FORM) rises 14% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as strong, prompting an upgrade.
• Guardant Health (GH) rallies 26% after the biotech company boosted its revenue guidance for the full year, beating the average analyst estimate.
• Huntington Ingalls (HII) rises 3% after the military shipbuilder reported revenue for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Insmed (INSM) climbs 12% after the biotech firm posted quarterly results.
• MediaAlpha (MAX) climbs 11% after the insurance technology company reported its third-quarter results and gave an outlook that analysts are positive on.
• REV Group (REVG) rises 6% after Terex agreed to buy the manufacturer of specialty vehicles.
• Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) tumbles 23% after the grocery store chain reported comparable store sales that missed estimates and lowered its forecast for full-year comp sales.
• TransMedics (TMDX) drops 10% after the transplant-therapy company reported total revenue for the third quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate.

In corporate news, AI startup OpenAI may target a $1 trillion valuation in an IPO as soon as next year, Reuters reported citing unidentified sources. Calpers is is planning to vote against Elon Musk’s $1 trillion Tesla compensation agreement. 

On Wednesday, the Fed delivered its second straight rate reduction to support a softening labor market and said they would stop shrinking the portfolio of assets from December. Still, Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that another cut this year wasn’t a foregone conclusion, prompting money markets to pare the odds of a quarter-point move to about 60% from near certainty. The European Central Bank is due to announce its policy decision later Thursday.

“After a month of strong growth across global equity markets, I think it’s quite healthy, frankly, to take a breather,” said David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de l’Echiquier. “The path of the Fed — with Powell’s surprise hawkish tilt yesterday — is a big question, as is the extent of capex announced by the Mag 7.”

Trump and Xi agreed to extend a tariff truce, roll back export controls and reduce other trade barriers in the first sitdown between leaders since Trump’s return to the White House. Despite speculation over potential additional concessions, including opening access to Nvidia’s Blackwell chips, the President indicated such issues hadn’t been part of the discussions. 

Mag 7 sentiment was muted with META and MSFT both under pressure; reaction to releases from tech giants was mixed as investors sought evidence that huge outlays are paying off. Alphabet demonstrated that its spending is fueling growth across Google’s businesses, particularly in cloud computing and search advertising, and said capex for the year will be $91 to $93 billion.  Meta said capex in 2026 will be “notably larger” than in 2025, when it expects to spend as much as $72 billion, while Microsoft’s CFO reiterated the company can’t meet current demand for AI and other services, even after spending tens of billions in recent quarters. The three bellwethers together spent $78 billion in capex last quarter, up 89% from a year earlier. 

Taking a broader look at Q3 earnings, out of the 248 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 81% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 15% have missed.  Advance Auto Parts, Biogen, Bristol-Myers, Cigna, Comcast, Estee Lauder, Hershey, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Altria, Merck, Roblox and S&P Global are among companies expected to report results before the market opens. Lilly’s ability to meaningful increase guidance at 3Q results may hinge on the effect of the partial loss of CVS-Caremark formulary coverage for Zepbound that started in July, according to BI.

“There has been a lot of good news priced in,” Nancy Curtin, global chief investment officer at Alti Tiedemann Global, told Bloomberg TV. “Having said that, we are still in the midst of the third-quarter earnings. If we end up again with 12-13% earnings growth in this quarter, with expectations on the rise for next quarter - that helps sustain markets.”

Carmakers around the world are planning to scale back production after an export freeze on Chinese semiconductor company Nexperia threatened to disrupt the industry’s supply chains, with Volkswagen the latest to caution that its outlook depends on sufficient supply of chips. 

Consumer trends are in focus with Chipotle lowering projections for a third time this year as customer traffic fell, while eBay gave a weak profit outlook for the holiday period. In Europe, Carlsberg sees lower beer sales on weaker consumer demand and Remy Cointreau cut its outlook amid subdued demand across markets including China, Europe and the US. 

European stocks fell as investors responded to a busy roster of earnings and looked ahead to an interest-rate decision by the European Central Bank. Drinkmaker Campari leads gains on the Stoxx 600 after a strong report, while at the other end of the index, weaker results hurt the shares of Norwegian defense group Kongsberg and advertising agency WPP. Stoxx 600 falls 0.3% to 573.49 with 374 members down, 216 up, and 10 unchanged. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Campari jumps as much as 9.6% and was the best performing stock on the Stoxx 600 after the Italian spirits group announced surprising progress in terms of profitability despite disappointing sales for its Aperol brand
• Jeromino Martins jumps as much as 8.1% after retailer reported higher-than-expected profitability in 3Q. For analysts it shows that the company was able to mitigate slowing like-for-like sales in Poland by higher cost discipline
• Lufthansa shares rise as much as 5.4%, the most since June 24. The German flag carrier reiterated its expectation for a significant increase in full-year adjusted Ebit and reported a slight profit beat in the third quarter
• Raiffeisen shares rise as much as 5.9% after the Austrian lender delivers consensus-beating third-quarter results; KBW sees a good set of results supported by another quarter of benign asset quality
• Airbus gains as much as 2.7%, setting a new record high, after the airplane and military equipment manufacturer reports third-quarter adjusted Ebit that beat consensus expectations
• ING Groep shares rise as much as 3.3%, the most in four months, as the Amsterdam-headquartered bank’s third-quarter profits come in ahead of forecasts, largely driven by higher revenues
• Ayvens gains as much as 11%, the most since May 2024, as analysts welcomed the car leasing company’s third-quarter results, which included a share buyback and a special dividend
• Kongsberg shares drop as much as 15%, the most since May 2022, after the military technology company reported Ebitda for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate
• Stellantis falls as much as 6.4% as analysts focus on the potential one-off charges in the second half of the year and what they could mean for cash flow. JPMorgan notes that the carmaker’s pricing failed to fully offset FX impact
• Prysmian falls as much as 8% after the cables manufacturer’s guidance disappointed investors; JPMorgan says the extend of the upgrade is likely to disappoint the market going forward
• Credit Agricole falls as much as 3.4% as a miss on costs saw pre-provision operating profit come in broadly in-line with expectations despite a small beat on revenue
• Schneider Electric falls as much as 5% on solid albeit merely in-line third-quarter report, according to analysts, with JPMorgan flagging buy-side expectations may have been more elevated leading into the report
• WPP shares slump as much as 13% to the lowest since 2008, after the advertising agency reduced organic growth guidance that was already slashed in July. Its 3Q revenue drop was also more severe than analysts had expected
• Amplifon drops as much as 6.4%, the most since July 30, after trimming its full-year sales growth guidance, while maintaining its adjusted Ebitda margin goal. JPMorgan says 3Q results fell short of expectations
• Carlsberg shares slip after the brewer reported third-quarter results in line with low expectations, with consumer weakness in markets including China and Ukraine weighing on volumes

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks turned lower after Donald Trump and Xi Jinping concluded a meeting that was seen as easing tensions between the world’s two largest economies but may have been largely priced into assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4%, reversing an early advance of as much as 0.5%. Softbank and Wesfarmers were among key drags. South Korean stocks gained after the nation sealed a trade deal with the US and Samsung Electronics posted a big bump in profits from its chip business.  Details on further aspects of the agreement will be key for the Asian stock rally, with the regional benchmark on course for its seventh straight monthly gain. Stocks rose in Japan after the central bank held interest rates. Shares fell in Australia, India, Vietnam and the Philippines.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edges higher. The yen weakened below 154 per dollar after the Bank of Japan left its benchmark interest rate unchanged and offered no new hints on when it might hike.

In rates, treasuries are lower with most yields about 1-2bps higher vs Wednesday’s closing levels. US 10-year near 4.09% slightly exceeds Wednesday’s high, adding to losses that lifted tenors other than the 30-year at least 10bp; German and UK yields are cheaper by 2bp to 4bp across curves. Fed-dated OIS also hover around Wednesday’s closing levels, pricing in around 15bp of easing for the December rate decision. German 2-year topped 2% for the first time in three weeks ahead of the ECB monetary-policy decision at 9:15am New York time. European yields are higher across the curve. French GDP comfortably topped estimates, German output stagnated. Focal points of US session include speeches by Fed’s Bowman and Logan. S&P 500 are down slightly amid evaluation of US-China trade truce. 

In commodities, gold prices rising and testing $4,000/oz, oil slipping with WTI sitting around $60/barrel and Brent short of $65/barrel.

Looking ahead, the US economic calendar remains effectively blank as government shutdown delays publication of weekly jobless claims data and 3Q GDP estimate. Fed speaker slate includes Bowman (9:55am) and Logan (1:15pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
• Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
• DAX little changed
• CAC 40 -0.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.07%
• VIX -0.9 points at 16.05
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1214.55
• euro +0.2% at $1.1624
• WTI crude -0.5% at $60.15/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Donald Trump hailed an “amazing meeting” with Xi Jinping that resulted in them extending a tariff truce for another year, rolling back export controls and reducing other trade barriers. Beijing agreed to pause controls on rare-earth magnets and, as Trump put it, buy “tremendous” amounts of American soybeans. The leaders didn’t discuss approving sales of NVDA’s Blackwell chips to China. BBG
• The Senate votes 50-46 to block Trump’s tariffs on Canada (this action, the second in as many days after the Senate voted to remove Trump’s Brazil tariffs, is most likely symbolic since it likely will not pass in the house). WaPo
• China pledged to work with Washington to resolve the fate of TikTok’s US business, stopping short of saying it’s agreed to Trump’s proposed deal. BBG
• President Trump's administration taps three different funds to pay US troops this Friday: Axios.
• Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Wednesday he expects to engage “pretty soon” with a group of rank-and-file Senate Democrats about ending the 29-day-and-counting government shutdown. If a meeting happens, it would be a rare bipartisan gathering involving a top party leader. Politico
• The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady on Thursday, with its governor sending the strongest signal yet that a rate hike was possible as soon as December depending on the outlook for wages next year. RTRS
• The euro-area economy expanded more than anticipated in the third quarter, displaying resilience to higher US tariffs, with France recording its strongest growth in over two years. German GDP stagnated, as expected. BBG
• Trump ordered nuclear weapons trials in response to Russia’s recent tests of nuclear-powered underwater drones and cruise missiles. The US’s last nuclear explosive test was in 1992. BBG
• OpenAI is preparing to file for an IPO as soon as next year that may value the company at $1 trillion. RTRS
• Gold rebounded after a 5% slide over four sessions as investors digest the outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting and sniff out the chances for more Fed cuts. Bullion has advanced about 50% this year and hit a record $4,380 an ounce last week. BBG
• Megacaps following last night’s earnings: GOOGL +8%: Topline accelerates across the board with Cloud, Search, and YouTube all ahead; FY25 Capex guide raised… META -8%: 2026 Capex to be notably larger than 2025 with expenses to grow at a faster pace; 3Q Revenues accelerate and 4Q guided ahead…  MSFT -2.5%: 1Q Azure growth beats guide by 2pts (inline with whispers); F2Q Azure guided stable and Capex to grow. Goldman

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said the meeting with Chinese President Xi was amazing and a lot of decisions were made, while they will be providing conclusions on very important things and agreed that Xi will work very hard to stop fentanyl. Trump confirmed that China soybean purchases will start immediately and they agreed to reduce China fentanyl tariffs to 10%, as well as noted that they did discuss chips and will be talking to NVIDIA and others about taking chips, but are not talking about Blackwell chips. Trump said the rare earth issue has been settled and there are no more roadblocks on rare earths, while he said it's a one-year agreement that will be extended and tariffs on China will be 47%, down from 57%. Furthermore, he is going to China in April and Xi will be coming to the US sometime after that, while he rated the meeting a 12 out of 10.
• Chinese President Xi told US President Trump at the start of the meeting that it is a pleasure to meet him and they do not always see eye to eye, but this is normal and it is normal for economies to have frictions, while he added that China’s development goes hand in hand with the vision to make America great again. Xi also stated that China and the US should be partners and friends, as well as noted that trade teams have reached a basic consensus and they are ready to continue working to build a solid foundation for two-way ties.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the announcement after the Trump-Xi meeting will be a resounding victory for our farmers.
  • China's President Xi says China's economy is like an ocean, according to the Chinese state media. Conversation is better than confrontation when dealing with trade. On the Trump meeting: Both sides have good prospects for AI, and the US and China should aim to narrow down list of problems and extend cooperation.
  • China Commerce Ministry confirms the agreement to extend some tariff exemption measures, China is to adjust some countermeasures. Says the US is extending the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs for one year. To pause countermeasures related to 301 investigation for a year. US is extending the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs for one year.
  • US President Trump posts "I had a truly great meeting with President Xi of China", "agreed that they will begin the process of purchasing American Energy", large transaction may occur regarding Alaska.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed after the Fed rate cut and Powell's hawkish presser, while participants also digested the BoJ decision and Trump-Xi meeting. ASX 200 lacked demand in the absence of tier-1 data and as markets reflected on the recent deluge of risk events.  Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with price action indecisive amid the BoJ policy decision in which the central bank maintained rates, as widely expected and refrained from any major clues for when it will resume its rate normalisation. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive as the attention was on the Trump-Xi meeting, where the leaders exchanged pleasantries at the start, but were then quiet with no statements provided upon the conclusion of the meeting. However, Trump later commented that the meeting was amazing and confirmed a reduction in fentanyl-related tariffs, while he also said the rare earths issue was resolved and rated the meeting a 12 out of 10.

Top Asian News

• Chinese Premier Li said it is necessary to implement requirements of high-quality development in all fields and aspects of economic and social development, while he added it is necessary to promote high-quality development as the theme, reform and innovation as the fundamental driving force, and meet the people's growing needs for a better life. Furthermore, he stated it is necessary to focus more on strengthening the domestic cycle, coordinate the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand, and deepen supply-side structural reforms.
• HKMA cut its base rate by 25bps to 4.25%, as expected.
• China to announce new financing tool to drive over CNY 6tln in investments, via Bloomberg citing Xinhua.
• Agricultural Bank of China (1288 HK / 601288 CH) 9-month (CNY): Net Income 222.3bln, Net Fee Income 69.8bln, NII 427bln, NIM 1.3%. Q3 (CNY): net 81.4bln, +3.7% Y/Y; Operating Revenue 181bln, +4.3% Y/Y.
• ICBC (1398 HK) Q3 (CNY): Net 101.8bln, +3.3% Y/Y. 9-month: NIM 1.28%, Net Income 271.8bln, NII 610.9bln.
• CNOOC (0883 HK) Q3 (CNY): Revenue 104.9bln (exp. 97.6bln), net 32.4bln (prev. 36.9bln).
• Bank of Communications (3328 HK) 9-month (CNY): Net income 29.994bln, +0.15% Y/Y; NII 128.65bln, +1.46% Y/Y.
• China Construction Bank (0939 HK) Q3 net profit 95.3bln, +4.2% Y/Y.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) opened mixed but have been moving lower throughout the morning. Traders have had a hawkish leaning Powell and the Trump-Xi meeting to digest. On the latter, Trump sounded upbeat following the meeting whilst the China Commerce Ministry confirmed the agreement to extend some tariff exemption measures. European sectors hold a strong negative bias, with only really Tech and Healthcare leading whilst Media is found right at the foot of the pile. In terms of key movers today; Shell (-0.4%, mixed results and announced USD 3.5bln buyback), TotalEnergies (+2.7%, in-line metrics), Stellantis (-5%, 13% Y/Y increase in shipments though warned of one-time hit).

BOJ Decision 

• BoJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at 0.5%, as expected, with board members Takata and Tamura the dissenters who proposed raising short-term rates by 25bps. BoJ said real interest rates are at significantly low levels and it will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with its forecast, in accordance with improvements in the economy and prices, while it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target and noted that it is important to scrutinise without any pre-set idea whether the BoJ’s projection will be met, given high uncertainty on trade policy and its impact on the economy. Furthermore, the BoJ stated that underlying consumer inflation is likely to stagnate on slowing growth, but increase gradually thereafter, and is likely to be at a level generally consistent with the 2% target in the second half of the projection period from fiscal 2025 through 2027, while board members' median projections for Real GDP and Core CPI were mostly kept unchanged from the previous aside from the slight upgrade to FY2025 Real GDP to 0.7% from 0.6%.

BOJ: Ueda press conference

• No pre-set idea about timing of next rate hike. A remark that lifted USD/JPY
• Need some more data until we decide to adjust degree of monetary easing.
• Possible to change policy even in the middle of the budget being compiled. Will adjust rate irrespective of the political situation.
• Reason for holding off on rate hikes is due to overall economies and trade policy uncertainties still being high.
• Expect next wage hikes to be roughly in line with this year's. Want to carefully watch wage negotiations especially in the autos sector given tariff impact.

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves is looking at an early scrapping of windfall tax on the UK oil and gas sector, according to FT. Elsewhere, the Chancellor is said to be considering a 2p rise in income tax, via The Telegraph.
• UK Chancellor Reeves has admitted she breached housing rules when renting out her family home, via BBC; PM Starmer has dismissed calls for an investigation into the incident.

FX

• DXY is flat, taking a breather following the upside seen in the prior session following the hawkish leaning Fed Chair Powell. To recap, the Fed cut by 25bps as expected, subject to 50bps and U/C dissent; it also announced it will end the balance sheet drawdown. However, Powell's presser thereafter struck a hawkish tone after he raised doubts regarding a December cut, stating that a rate reduction is "far from assured". Fed aside, focus has been on the Trump-Xi meeting. Overall, the POTUS seemed very positive with the outcome whereby he announced that China had agreed to soybean purchases and alluded to an "American Energy" agreement - still awaiting details on that front. The Chinese Commerce Ministry the agreement to extend some tariff exemption measures, adding that the US is extending the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs for one year. DXY currently trading in a 98.91 to 99.21 range.
• EUR is slightly firmer today. A number of key data points to keep traders busy, including; French GDP (beat exp.), Spanish inflation (slightly hotter-than-expected), German GDP (no growth Q/Q, whilst Y/Y beat exp.), State CPIs (point to cooler than exp. Y/Y print for the Nationwide figure, but perhaps to a lesser magnitude than expected). Overall little move seen in the Single-currency; currently trades at the upper end of a 1.1598-1.1637 range. Just after the mainland German inflation figure at 13:00GMT we get the ECB policy announcement. The ECB is expected to maintain the Deposit Rate at 2.0%, less than 1bps worth of easing is currently implied.
• JPY is the clear G10 underperformer today, following the BoJ. On that, very much as expected, the Bank kept rates steady at 0.50% - a decision which was subject to dissent by Takata and Tamura. Accompanying commentary also lacked surprises, and ultimately lacked any hawkish hints for the next meeting which may be driving the pressure in the JPY today. Moreover, some additional pressure in the Yen was seen during Governor Ueda's presser, in which he stated that there is no pre-set idea about timing of next rate hike. USD/JPY has been gradually edging higher throughout the morning and trades at the upper end of a 152.17-153.88 range.
• GBP is essentially flat vs USD today. Briefly reclaimed the 1.32 mark overnight but has since been pressured below that mark, to trade within a 1.3182-1.3218 range. Focus on the UK's Budget at the end of next month; reports suggest that UK Chancellor Reeves is looking at an early scrapping of windfall tax on the UK oil and gas sector, according to FT. Elsewhere, the Chancellor is said to be considering a 2p rise in income tax, via The Telegraph.
• Antipodeans are marginally flat/flat firmer the Dollar today. Ultimately traders are digesting the Trump-Xi outcome and the pressure seen across the metals space this morning.

Fixed Income

• A softer start to Thursday for USTs. The benchmark is holding around the post-Powell lows, but did briefly drop to a 112-22+ base, taking out the 112-24 trough from Wednesday. In brief, the Fed cut by 25bps, a decision subject to 50bps and U/C dissent. They also announced a decision to exit balance sheet reduction, as part of this, the MBA unwind will continue, but offset by T-Bill purchases as/when necessary. The bulk of the action came from Powell, who was hawkish regarding the near term path of policy, outlining that there is a growing chorus of feeling they should maybe wait a cycle, in terms of continuing to ease. Ahead, we have Fed’s Bowman (voter) and Logan (2026) scheduled, though Bowman is pre-recorded and Logan is on bank research; remarks should not cover current policy as the Fed is technically still in the blackout period until the end of Thursday. Friday’s docket has Logan, Bostic (2027) and Hammack (2026). Additionally, we will await the dissent letters from Miran (voter) and Schmid (2025) who preferred 50bps and U/C respectively. Since, newsflow has been focussed on tariffs. The mentioned 112-22+ base this morning came alongside a readout from China’s Commerce Ministry on the Trump-Xi meeting, a meeting POTUS described as a 12/10, the readout from China confirmed that the US is extending the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs for one year.
• The Fed weighed on JGBs on Wednesday, to a 135.78 low into the close. Thereafter, JGBs picked up a touch following the BoJ. The decision was unchanged as expected, subject to two hawkish dissenters. However, modest upside was seen in JGBs after the statement as it did not contain any overtly hawkish signals. Specifically, this lifted JGBs above the 136.00 mark after the Tokyo lunch break, a move that continued thereafter to a 136.26 peak just before Ueda began. The main market-moving update was Ueda outlining that there is no pre-set idea about the timing of the next hike. A move that spurred some JPY pressure at the time but didn’t have much impact on JGBs.
• Bunds hit on the Fed alongside USTs, as outlined above. Early doors, the benchmark held near yesterday’s 129.21 base and then dipped a tick further to the current 129.20 low, a low print that occurred alongside the discussed commentary from China’s Commerce Ministry. Thereafter, Bunds lifted in-line with the likes of XAU as the risk tone dipped a touch; evidenced by European and US equity futures moving into the red vs the slightly firmer performance seen before the European cash equity open. At most, Bunds to a 129.38 peak but still lower by 19 ticks. No move this morning to a much stronger than expected French GDP figure for Q3, while hotter-than-expected Spanish CPI weighed a touch, but EGBs remained well within earlier ranges. Eurozone GDP came in above expectations, printing at 0.2% Q/Q (exp. 0.1%) and 1.3% Y/Y (exp. 1.2%) following the much better than expected French figure and Germany remaining at 0.0% (assuaging some concern around a negative figure). Just after the mainland German inflation figure at 13:00GMT we get the ECB policy announcement. The ECB is expected to maintain the Deposit Rate at 2.0%, less than 1bps worth of easing is currently implied.
• Gilts opened lower by 23 ticks, as the benchmark had yet to react to the Powell-pressure seen in peers. A move that extended by another 20 ticks to a 93.35 low shortly after the resumption of trade. Since, Gilts have found a base just below the 93.55 opening mark, posting losses of c. 30 ticks on the session. Newsflow for the UK remains focused on the November Budget, amid reports that Reeves is looking at the early scrapping of oil/gas windfall taxes and a potential 2p increase to income tax; the latter would be a manifesto breach. Note, the attention on Reeves herself has intensified owing to her admitting she breached housing rules regarding her family home, PM Starmer has since dismissed calls for an investigation.
• Italy sells EUR vs exp. EUR 6.5-7.5bln 2.85% 2031, 3.45% 2036 & EUR vs exp. EUR 1.5-2bln 1.645% 2031, 1.594% 2032 CCTeu.

Commodities

• Price action in crude benchmarks have been choppy throughout the APAC session and into the European trading day amid light crude-specific newsflow. WTI and Brent are currently trading around USD 60.20/bbl and USD 64.00/bbl as the market waits for a new catalyst.
• Spot XAU has stabilised above USD Wednesday’s trough of USD 3915/oz after falling back below USD 4k/oz following the hawkish cut by the FOMC. XAU fell just shy of Wednesday’s low to USD 3916/oz during the APAC session before slowly reversing the losses seen during the FOMC meeting. The yellow metal has returned back above USD 4k/t as the European session continues with XAU currently trading at USD 4004/oz.
• Base metals have fallen from Wednesday’s record highs as the meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi ended with a lack of statements from both sides, indicating a possibility that the talks didn’t go as well as expected. However, recent comments from both sides indicated that the talks did go well, with the US cutting the fentanyl tariff to 10% and suspending the 24% reciprocal tariff for another year while the Chinese will halt rare earth export curbs and resume US soybean purchases.
• Russia's Lukoil says it has received an offer to acquire foreign assets from Gunvor

Geopolitics

• US President Trump posted that the US has more nuclear weapons than any other country, which was accomplished during his first term in office, while he stated that because of other countries testing programs, he has instructed the Department of War to start testing US nuclear weapons on an equal basis, and that process will begin immediately.
  • US President Trump said he wasn't able to talk with North Korea leader Kim because he was so busy, but would come back to talk with Kim.
  • US Defense Secretary Hegseth said they carried out a lethal kinetic strike earlier today on another narco-trafficking vessel operated by a designated terrorist organisation in the Eastern Pacific.
  • Russian and Chinese officials discuss potential war settlement issues, via Tass.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Oct 25 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 228k
• 8:30 am: Oct 18 Continuing Claims, est. 1932k
• 8:30 am: 3Q A GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 3%, prior 3.8%
• 8:30 am: 3Q A Personal Consumption, est. 3.2%, prior 2.5%
• 8:30 am: 3Q A GDP Price Index, est. 2.7%, prior 2.1%
• 8:30 am: 3Q A Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 3%, prior 2.6%
• 9:55 am: Fed’s Bowman Gives Pre-Recorded Remarks
• 1:15 pm: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Bank Funding Conference

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

All the action in markets has happened since Europe went home last night with a Fed rate cut - but signals from Powell that a December rate cut was "far from…a foregone conclusion”, mixed tech earnings, a BoJ on hold and a seemingly upbeat Xi/Trump meeting. Meanwhile Nvidia (+2.99%) became the first company to reach a $5trn market capitalisation. Overall this left 10yr Treasury yields spiking by +10.1bps and the S&P 500 (-0.004%) flat on the day even as the NASDAQ (+0.55%) and Mag-7 (+1.03%) powered on to new highs. US equity futures on the S&P (+0.13%) and NASDAQ (+0.14%) are trading higher as I type after headlines from the Trump/Xi meeting are materialising. Looking ahead, the main events today will be Apple and Amazon earnings, along with the ECB’s policy decision, where rates are widely expected to remain on hold at 2%.

In a much-anticipated meeting this morning, President Trump met with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in Busan, South Korea, to discuss trade, with both leaders expressing optimism about alleviating trade tensions between the two largest economies in the world. President Trump characterized his discussions with Xi as 'fantastic,' emphasizing a 'great relationship' between the two leaders, while Premier Xi noted that both parties had achieved 'a basic consensus' despite ongoing differences. In a nod perhaps to Spinal Tap, Trump said "I guess on the scale from zero to 10, with 10 being the best, I would say the meeting was a 12".

According to President Trump’s briefing to reporters aboard Air Force One, the meeting culminated in a trade agreement that would see the US reduce fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese goods by half, effective immediately. Additionally, the agreement will allow China to resume its soybean purchases and suspend its rare-earths licensing regime for a minimum of one year. Furthermore, the leaders agreed to collaborate on issues concerning Ukraine and stated their intention to eliminate shipping tariffs and fees. Trump has said he'll be going to China in April. At the moment we don't have the official China response to the meeting but that may come as we go to press. So keep an eye out for that. As I press send the FT are reporting that Trump has said that Xi has agreed to a one-year trade deal which will be reviewed annually. So that story will develop this morning.  

Turning to the Fed, the FOMC cut the fed funds rate by 25bps to 3.75-4.00%, with Kansas Fed President Schmid dissenting in favour of keeping rates steady while Governor Miran favoured a 50bps cut. While the decision itself was widely expected, Chair Powell was more equivocal on future rate cuts, saying that “A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion, far from it”. Powell acknowledged “strongly differing views" within the FOMC, with some primarily concerned about a slowing labour market but others warning that still elevated inflation limited room for further easing. As per our economists’ expectations, the Fed also announced it will end its balance sheet runoff (QT) starting from December 1. On rates policy, our economists maintain a baseline of a 25bps rate cut in December but see the hawkish-leaning signal as consistent with their view of fundamentals pointing to fewer rate cuts than priced by markets. (see their full reaction here).

In response, fed funds futures cut back the likelihood of a 25bp December rate cut from effectively fully priced down to 69%, while fed funds pricing for next June moved + 12.9bps higher on the day. That drove Treasuries to their worst day since early June, with 2yr yields up +10.8bps to 3.60% and 10yr up +10.1bps to 4.08%. Powell’s more cautious signal on future cuts weighed on equities, with the S&P 500 erasing gains to trade more than half a percent lower on the day but then recovering back to flat (-0.004%) by close. And while tech stocks rallied, the equity market breadth was increasingly negative, with three quarters of the S&P lower on the day and its equal-weighted version down -1.11%. The S&P 500 has now outperformed its equal-weighted counterpart by 3.0% so far this week, the biggest 3-day performance gap between the two since 2020.

Then after the market close, we saw results from Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet send contrasting signals on the payoffs from the AI investment boom. The three tech giants saw their joint capex bill rise +89% y/y to $78bn in the latest quarter. But with Meta delivering in line revenue guidance for the current quarter ($56-59bn vs $57.4bn est.) and Microsoft saying that capacity was still constraining growth in its cloud unit (+39% y/y vs +37% est.), this left questions hanging over increasingly lofty expectations. Meta’s shares fell more than -7% in after-hours trading with Microsoft down -4%. By contrast, Alphabet’s solid revenue beat ($87.5bn vs $85.1bn est.) came amid surging demand for its cloud and AI services, leaving investors more optimistic that its capex spend was translating into rising AI-related revenue. Alphabet’s shares rose more than +6% in post-market trading.

Before all that, the standout story yesterday was Nvidia (+2.99%) becoming the first company in history to reach a $5 trillion valuation — placing it above the entire listed market capitalisation of every G7 country except the US and Japan. To put that in perspective, Nvidia first crossed $1tn in June 2023, $2tn in March 2024, $3tn in June 2024, and $4tn in July 2025. It dipped as low as $2.4tn in April this year, making its ascent all the more remarkable. There has simply never been a company like it in the history of financial markets. With Microsoft (-0.10%) also surpassing $4tn earlier this week, and Apple (+0.26%) doing so yesterday, these companies are now more akin to countries than corporations.
Nvidia’s gains came after Trump said in yesterday’s Asian session that he planned to discuss Nvidia’s Blackwell chips with Xi. That comment pushed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up +1.85% to a new high. As a reminder, Trump floated the idea of allowing Nvidia to export scaled-down versions of its Blackwell chips to China back in August. That came as he also approved shipments of Nvidia’s H20 chips — a less advanced model — in exchange for the US administration taking a 15% revenue share.

Elsewhere, the US and South Korea announced a trade deal yesterday. The agreement includes a $200bn investment commitment from South Korea (capped at $20bn annually) and an additional $150bn in shipbuilding investment. In return, the US has agreed to reduce auto tariffs to 15% from 25%, bringing them in line with Japan’s rate.

On the data front, ahead of the Fed decision, US September pending home sales were unchanged versus expectations for a +1.2% rise, though the annual rate did still pick up to a 10-month high of +1.5% y/y.

Today will be a busy day for European data as well. Alongside the ECB meeting, we’ll get Q3 GDP flash estimates for France, Germany, Italy, and the wider Euro Area. Our European economists expect Euro Area growth to come in between 0.0% and +0.1% q/q, with France flat, Germany at +0.2%, and Italy at +0.1%. Spain’s flash estimate yesterday showed +0.6% q/q, in line with market expectations.

Staying with Europe, the ECB is widely expected to hold rates at 2% again, with recent growth and inflation data broadly aligned with its forecasts. President Lagarde is likely to reiterate that policy remains “in a good place.” Our European economists expect the tone to stay unchanged, though dovish risks include trade uncertainty, energy inflation, and credit transmission concerns. 

European equities lagged their US peers for a second consecutive session, with the STOXX 600 down -0.06%. Weakness was led by German and French stocks, with the DAX (-0.64%) and CAC 40 (-0.19%) both under pressure amid ongoing budget concerns. In bond markets, yields drifted slightly lower, led by OATs (-1.8bps) and BTPs (-1.4bps), while gilts (-0.8bps) and bunds (-0.2bps) also edged down.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps, as expected, with only minor adjustments to its policy assessment.
In other overnight news, the liberal centrist D66 looks set to lead attempts to form a new government after early elections in Netherlands. The party is on course to match the seat share of the right-wing populist Freedom Party in a fragmented parliament, with the latter losing nearly a third of its seats compared to the 2023 election.

Asian equity markets are mixed with the Nikkei (+0.25%), the KOSPI (+0.39%), and Hang Seng (+0.13%) higher but mainland Chinese markets slightly lower. The S&P/ASX 200 (-0.40%) is lower. Meanwhile, 10yr USTs are -1.16bps lower trading at 4.06% as we go to print.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has, as widely anticipated, kept interest rates steady at 0.5%, with two members dissenting in favour of a rate increase. This extends the pause in its tightening cycle to a sixth consecutive meeting after a 25 basis points hike in January. In its quarterly economic outlook report, the board has slightly adjusted its economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2026 to 0.7% from 0.6%, while maintaining its projections for the subsequent two fiscal years at 0.7% and 1% respectively. Additionally, it has raised its inflation forecast for fiscal 2026.

Simultaneously, the central bank anticipates that underlying inflation will reach 2% in the latter half of the three-year projection period ending in March 2027, retaining the language from the previous report issued in July. Following this announcement, the Japanese yen (-0.05%) weakened before stabilizing to trade flat at 152.71 against the dollar.

To the day ahead, the key event will be the ECB decision, alongside a full slate of European data releases — including Germany’s Q3 GDP, October CPI, unemployment rate, France’s Q3 GDP, Italy’s Q3 GDP and September unemployment, Eurozone confidence data, and the region’s Q3 GDP print. On the earnings front, highlights include Apple, Amazon, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, and Samsung Electronics.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 08:36

Chipotle Shares Plunge Most Since 2012 On Alarming "Consumer Slowdown" Materializing 

Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill plunged in premarket trading after the company slashed its full-year sales outlook for the third time this year, now forecasting a low single-digit decline from the previous reporting year instead of flat growth. The downgrade reflects a clear pullback in discretionary dining behavior this fall, as working-class consumers tighten budgets amid mounting economic pressures. None of this should come as a surprise, as we cautioned in our note last week, "Low-Income Consumers Pulling Back on Restaurant Spending May Signal Trouble Ahead."

Trouble ahead indeed: Shares of Chipotle cratered 18% in premarket trading, adding to a brutal 34% year-to-date decline. It's been a rotten year for investors as the burrito chain, heavily exposed to younger, cost-sensitive consumers with mounting student loans and insurmountable credit card debt, bears the brunt of an emerging pullback in discretionary spending and waning appetite for eating out.

If premarket losses hold through intraday cash, this would mark Chipotle's worst down day since July 20, 2012.

"The consumer slowdown is really affecting our business in a meaningful way," CEO Scott Boatwright told Wall Street analysts on Wednesday evening after an earnings call. 

For the third quarter, Chipotle's comparable-store sales marginally increased but missed Bloomberg Consensus expectations. There were widespread misses on key operational and margin metrics, which only suggest softer sales momentum and elevated cost pressures:

• Comparable sales: +0.3% (missed Bloomberg Consensus est. +0.99%)

• Adjusted EPS: $0.29 (in line with est. $0.29)

• Revenue: $3.00B (slightly below est. $3.02B)

• Operating margin: 15.9% (vs. est. 16.6%)

• Restaurant-level margin: 24.5% (vs. est. 25.5%)

• New restaurants opened: 84 (below est. 90.96)

• Total restaurants at quarter-end: 3,916 (vs. est. 3,929)

• Average restaurant sales: $3.13M (in line with est. $3.12M)

The full-year also disappointed investors by cutting the outlook for the third time:

• Comparable restaurant sales: Now expected to decline in the low single digits (previously forecast about flat)

• New restaurant openings: Still projected at 315–345 (vs. consensus estimate 333)

Rymer also noted that some consumers are trading down from higher-priced steaks to cheaper chicken options, while continuing to purchase extras like guacamole and drinks. Compounding its troubles, the fast-casual chain also faces operational challenges, including digital order errors, ingredient shortages, and cleanliness issues.

Wall Street commentary on the consumer pullback at Chipotle (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Michael Halen

• Chipotle's quarterly same-store sales may drop low- to mid- single digits "as traffic plummets"

• "The 4Q restaurant margin may contract meaningfully vs. 4Q24's 24.8%, based on guidance, due to sales deleveraging and wage and commodity inflation"

Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Harbour (overweight, PT to $50 from $59) 

• While the 3Q was roughly in line, "4Q stepping down and with slower traffic, more inflation and less price" 

• "Stock likely under pressure as 4Q remains tough"

Stephens analyst Jim Salera (equal-weight, PT $48)

• Chipotle's lowered FY25 same-store sales guidance to declines of low single-digit % versus flat likely implies a sequential step-down in 4Q25 

• "Looking to FY26, we believe CMG's premium multiple could be at risk if the company cannot show signs of accelerating comps back towards the MSD% [mid single-digit] range"

Chipotle's mounting consumer woes come as no surprise to ZeroHedge Premium and Pro subs. Early last week, we shared a Goldman Sachs survey that found low-income consumers were pulling back on spending. Here's the chart we were focused on:

Read the report here. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 08:25

The post Chinese AI Seems to Be Jumping Ahead appeared first on CEPR.

Ukraine Won't Be Able To Reclaim All Territories Seized By Russia, Italy Admits

The top commander of a NATO-member army has finally spoken the quiet part out loud - something which leadership in Brussels won't bring itself to admit - on a public level at least...

Ukraine will not be able to retake all territories seized by Russia since 2014, even with the help of Western allies, said Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto - in remarks being widely noticed in both Ukrainian and Russian media. "Today, everyone considers it impossible to reclaim the territories lost by Ukraine in 2014 and after February 2022. Russia will never give them up, and Ukraine will not have the strength to retake them on its own, even with our help," Crosetto said.

Italy's Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, via AFP

Russia's military currently holds some 20% of Ukrainian territory, and early in the conflict Moscow declared the annexation after popular referendum of the four oblasts of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia.

Citing the Italian defense chief further, RBC-Ukraine writes, "According to him, Russian leader Vladimir Putin cannot back down, in part because he changed the constitution, declaring the occupied territories Russian in every sense, thereby putting himself in a position where he cannot negotiate."

And yet the reality is that the Zelensky government and its backers in NATO still appear completely unwilling to negotiate based on ceding territory.

Zelensky has refused to even recognized Russia's hold over Crimea, and Moscow is certainly never going to give up Crimea and home to its Black Sea naval fleet.

"It is up to them [the Ukrainians] to decide what is the greater sacrifice: conceding territory or continuing a bloody war that could intensify. Ukrainian losses amount to 520,000 people, while Russian losses exceed 1 million. The difference is that Ukrainians are aware of their losses, whereas the Russian people have no idea," Crosetto continued.

But Crosetto holds no sympathies with Moscow - quite the opposite in fact - as he's also said that Russia is sowing propaganda among European populations, and even seeks to destabilize and confuse Italy.

We reported earlier Wednesday that the key logistical hub of Ukraine's eastern front - Pokrovsk, is poised to be captured by the Russian army, given its infantry forces are already inside southern districts of the frontline city.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 08:05

Trump Says SNAP Benefits Will Be Solved For Next Month

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump said that he believes Republicans will solve how to fund food stamps, when he was asked about the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and the government shutdown.

President Donald Trump speaks aboard Air Force One while traveling from Japan to South Korea on Oct. 29, 2025. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

SNAP is slated to expire by Nov. 1, potentially ending benefits for millions of people across the United States.

“We’re going to get it done,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Oct. 29. “The Democrats have caused the problem, unfortunately. All they have to do is sign, and if they sign, I'll meet with them.”

The president then suggested that the shutdown is linked to broader talks on health care and an extension of subsidies. Senate Democrats have refused 13 times to pass bills to reopen the government because those measures do not include health care provisions, including an extension of Affordable Care Act (commonly known as Obamacare) subsidies slated to expire at the end of the year.

“We have to fix health care because Obamacare is a disaster,” Trump said, referring to the Affordable Care Act. “When you see the increases in Obamacare, it never worked, it never will work, and we could do something with the Democrats much better than Obamacare. Less money and better health care.”

Trump then said that health insurance companies are “making too much money” and said that talks are needed between Republicans and Democrats when the shutdown ends.

Managed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), SNAP provides food assistance to about 42 million people—generally low-income individuals—each month. The agency has warned that because of the shutdown, benefits are unlikely to be sent out starting on Nov. 1.

In a statement posted on the USDA’s website earlier this week, the department warned that “the well has run dry.” The agency also blamed Democratic lawmakers for the shutdown and the loss of benefits.

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) warned in an opinion article published this week that millions of Americans may lose access to food benefits in a few days if nothing changes. He urged Congress to pass a separate measure to ensure that SNAP benefits are not interrupted.

“America is a great and wealthy nation, and our most important wealth is our generosity of spirit,” Hawley wrote for The New York Times.

Democrats, meanwhile, have said that Republicans are to blame for the shutdown because Trump will not enter direct negotiations with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).

They’ve also accused the Trump administration and Republicans of wanting to gut health care benefits for Americans under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that was passed earlier this year.

At the same time, a House Democrat who chairs the appropriations committee has said that a decision by the administration not to use a contingency fund for food aid is likely illegal.

“The contingency funding that we set aside for SNAP is not optional spending. It is required by the law,” Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) said in a news conference in the Capitol on Oct. 28.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), however, has said that the fund, which the Department of Agriculture has said is to be used in emergencies such as natural disasters, cannot be used now to pay for SNAP.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 07:41

My morning train WFH reads:

• It Is Trump’s Casino Economy Now. You’ll Probably Lose. Step into the casino that now passes for the American economy. The casino economy was built on speculation and risk. Across markets and policy, wagers on the future are being made with other people’s money at a cost that could prove catastrophic. (New York Times)

• Ed Zitron Gets Paid to Love AI. He Also Gets Paid to Hate AI. He’s one of the loudest voices of the AI haters—even as he does PR for AI companies. Either way, Ed Zitron has your attention. (Wired)

• How Vanguard Stacks Up Against Its Fund Industry Peers: Where the low-cost powerhouse ranks versus other top asset managers by size, ratings, and manager ownership. (Morningstar)

• LOL Me: Who you gonna trust: Barry Ritholtz or Jim Cramer? A trio of new books from notable (and notorious) authors offer fresh insights on retirement investing. (MoneySense) see also Make ‘cents’ of financial literacy with these 4 podcasts: To get comfortable with money, I recommend listening to podcasts, which combine accessibility and personality. You can learn anywhere — on a walk, between classes or while doing chores — and still absorb complex ideas. Many financial podcasts use humor, storytelling and current events to make compound interest or credit scores sound less like lectures and more like conversations with a nerdy friend. (The Emory Wheel)

• Jesse Livermore & The Magnet of Dancing Stock Prices: There’s a lot of stuff in here that sounds eerily similar to today’s environment. It was the tail end of a glorious bull market. Retail investors were beating the pros. Investors were all in on the stock market. It felt like nothing could stop the runaway bull market train. (A Wealth of Common Sense)

• No, Ronald Reagan Didn’t Love Tariffs: Reagan did, in fact, repeatedly emphasize the virtues of free trade. Like all modern presidents, he nonetheless imposed some tariffs for political reasons. But Reagan always stayed within the boundaries of the law, using his right to impose discretionary tariffs as pressure release valves rather than abusing his authority to make tariff policy an instrument of his personal. (Paul Krugman)

• The Math Trick Hidden in Your Credit Card Number: Find out how this simple algorithm from the 1960s catches your typos. (Scientific American)

• Apple’s biggest iPhone overhaul in years ignites upgrade frenzy: Extended wait times and generous trade-in deals signal surging demand for newly redesigned device. (Financial Times) see also The right shortcuts can give your iPhone superpowers. Here’s how. Take the pain out of tedious tasks with Apple’s Shortcuts app.(Washington Post)

• U.S. Drops Out of Top 10 in Passport Power. Here’s Why: Adecade ago, the United States passport was seen as the most powerful in the world by the Henley Passport Index, which ranks nations based on the number of destinations a traveler can visit without needing a visa. In 2025, however, the U.S. passport has fallen from grace, dropping out of the top 10 most powerful passports globally for the first time in 20 years. (Time)

• He’s Baseball’s $325 Million Pitcher—and He Might Be Underpaid: Yoshinobu Yamamoto hadn’t pitched a single inning in American baseball when the Dodgers signed him to the richest contract ever given to a pitcher. After back-to-back playoff masterpieces, he’s beginning to look like a bargain. (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview  this weekend with Jon Hilsenrath of Serpa Pinto Advisory. Previously, he was chief economics correspondent for Wall Street Journal for 26 years. Dubbed the “Fed Whisperer” by Wall Street traders for his scoops on the FOMC, he worked out of Hong Kong, NY, and D.C. He was part of the Pulitzer Prize-winning team for on-scene coverage of 9/11.  He is the author of “Yellen: The Trailblazing Economist Who Navigated an Era of Upheaval.”

 

Nominal equity returns rise ~linearly with inflation — equities act as an effective inflation hedge. Real returns decline modestly when inflation rises a lot; Equities perform best in lower to moderate inflation environments

Source: Deutsche Bank Research Institute

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Foreign Terror Designation Could Boost US Efforts To Dismantle Antifa

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times,

With the Trump administration intensifying investigations into the overseas operations and financial networks of far-left extremist group Antifa, debate has sharpened over whether the group should be designated a foreign terrorist organization.

President Donald Trump designated Antifa as a domestic terrorist organization in a Sept. 22 executive order, 12 days after conservative influencer Charlie Kirk was slain at an event at Utah Valley University. The alleged gunman left behind bullet casings with writing on them, including an unspent one that read, “Hey, fascist! Catch!”

The shooting drew fresh attention to the so-called anti-fascist movement and Antifa.

​During an Oct. 8 roundtable discussion with journalists who spoke about being assaulted by members of Antifa, Trump reacted favorably when a reporter asked whether it would be appropriate to designate the organization as a foreign terror group, similar to Mexican drug cartels and transnational gangs.

​“Let’s get it done,” Trump said.

White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller called it a “very valid step” because of Antifa’s foreign ties.

​Designating a group as a foreign terrorist organization equips the federal government with greater authority to conduct international investigations, seize assets, and pursue criminal charges, providing more options beyond domestic measures.

​Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) said he believes that a foreign terrorist designation for Antifa is necessary, and he recently wrote to Secretary of State Marco Rubio about Antifa’s overseas activities.

​“They have an international network of safe houses. Antifa is not an idea, it’s an organization,” Schmitt told The Epoch Times.

“I think if we’re serious about taking on political violence ... they’re the tip of the spear, so I think it’s absolutely necessary.”

Rubio’s office did not immediately respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment, citing the ongoing government shutdown.

Antifa ‘Myth’

Critics argue that Trump’s actions against Antifa represent government overreach, as well as sparking a larger debate about using terror designations to address domestic dissent.

Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), ranking member of the Committee on Homeland Security, called it a mistake to name Antifa as a domestic terrorist group. Thompson said in a Sept. 22 statement that doing so “serves no purpose other than an excuse for the Trump administration to stifle dissent.”

Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) speaks during a hearing with the heads of the FBI, Homeland Security, and the National Counterterrorism Center, in Washington on Nov. 15, 2023. Thompson said labeling Antifa a domestic terrorist group was a mistake and

​Some Democrats have downplayed Antifa’s involvement in riots and damage to property, suggesting that Antifa does not exist. In 2020, Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) commented on rioting involving Antifa in Portland, Oregon.

​“That’s a myth that’s being spread only in Washington D.C.,” Nadler said in response to a reporter who asked whether the lawmaker disavows the violence by Antifa.

​Former FBI Director Christopher Wray, who served under both Trump and President Joe Biden, described Antifa as an “ideology or a movement,” not a centralized organization, during a 2020 congressional hearing.

Rutgers University ​assistant teaching professor Mark Bray, author of “Antifa: The Anti-Fascist Handbook,” wrote in his book that even as times have changed, Antifa’s commitment “to stamp out fascism by any means necessary” remains intact and connects the movement to its earliest origins.

Antifa originated under the Soviet Union and functioned as the violent wing of Germany’s Communist Party to target political rivals. The group labeled its enemies as “fascists.”

“Only mass antifascism, legal or not, can save us,” Bray wrote on the Bluesky social media platform on Oct. 4.

Antifa members often wear “black bloc,” or all black clothing and masks, to remain anonymous and avoid prosecution for crimes such as vandalism and assault, he said.

Antifa protesters carrying communist flags march past the Holocaust Memorial while demonstrating against gatherings of neo-Nazis nearby in the city center in Berlin on March 20, 2021. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Overseas Operation

In his Oct. 9 letter to Rubio, Schmitt pointed out that Antifa is “not a collection of independent domestic actors” but an international network.

​“I write to you today to urge you to designate the foreign networks, organizations, and financiers that enable and support Antifa operations as Foreign Terrorist Organizations,” Schmitt wrote.

​His letter states that Antifa cells appear decentralized but coordinate and share tactics and funding streams.

​“The political violence that Antifa-linked terrorists perpetrate on American streets is inextricably tied to this broader international system,” he wrote.

In Canada, a court confirmed ties between Antifa and the ​Canadian Anti-Hate Network group, according to Schmitt’s letter.

The “Stop Cop City” riots in Atlanta in 2023 also involved international coordination, according to Georgia Attorney General Chris Carr. He told Fox News that some of the militants arrested—who allegedly threw Molotov cocktails, fireworks, and rocks at police—were from France and Canada.

​“This is a national, an international group of people that are organized to come to our state to undermine a public safety training center,” Carr said.

Protesters march during an anti-fascism demonstration in Barcelona on Oct. 12, 2017. Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images

​Ammon Blair, intelligence consultant and senior fellow at the Texas Public Policy Foundation’s Secure and Sovereign Texas Initiative, said Trump needs to designate Antifa a foreign terrorist organization in order to dismantle it.

​Such a designation allows intelligence agencies to gather information abroad, because those agencies cannot target U.S. citizens domestically, he said. It would also allow the government to cut off funding and material support for terrorism.

Blair said Antifa members and communist groups are agitating for ​“a color revolution” to destabilize Western countries. Color revolutions use grassroots mobilization, protests, and civil disobedience to topple governments.

“They think the oppression itself is our constitutional republic,” he told The Epoch Times.

Internationally, militant anti-fascists have been involved in arson, bombings, and assassinations in Latin America and Europe, according to a 2021 report from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies titled “Behind the Black Bloc: An Overview of Militant Anarchism and Anti-Fascism.”

​Some European countries, such as Hungary and the Netherlands, supported Trump’s move to designate Antifa as a domestic terrorist group.

​Tom Vandendriessche, a Belgian politician and member of the European Parliament, has been an outspoken critic of Antifa in Europe and wants a terrorist designation there as well.

​“We must designate Antifa as a terrorist organization, expose its financiers, and dismantle its support networks. [Seventy-nine] Members of the European Parliament support my resolution,” he wrote in an X post this month.

Antifa members gather to demonstrate following the announcement of the results of the first round of the presidential election, in Nantes, France, on April 23, 2017. Jean-sebastien Evrard/AFP via Getty Images

Follow the Money

​Blair said funding to Antifa is funneled through nongovernmental organizations and crowdfunding sites, which are harder to track.

​“It’s a clever way to mask donations,” he said.

​One international funding organization called the International Anti-Fascist Defence Fund (IAFD), a spinoff of Antifa International Collective, stated that it seeks to make funding “accessible to all anti-fascists around the world.”

​​“Over the last 12 months, we’ve intervened nine times to assist 52 anti-fascists in Finland, France, Germany, the UK, and the US,” the group’s annual report reads.

​In a September blog post, the group reported making a donation to “community activists” involved in what officials described as an officer ambush outside a Texas Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention facility in July.

An Alvarado Police Department officer was shot in the neck during the incident but survived.

Ten people were charged with the attempted murder of a police officer. Two alleged members of a Texas Antifa cell were charged with providing material support to terrorists. It marked the first terrorism-related charges brought against people allegedly linked to the network.

IAFD made a $5,050 donation to the GiveSendGo account for protesters at the Texas ICE facility, which has raised more than $45,000 as of Oct. 28.

Antifa members and counter protesters gather during a No-To-Marxism rally in Berkeley, Calif., on Aug. 27, 2017. Amy Osborne/AFP via Getty Images

​Another active funding group with alleged Antifa ties is Germany’s Red Aid, which ​German domestic intelligence calls an extremist legal aid group. The group supports people who fight “fascism” and oppose what they consider government oppression.

​The group, rooted in the German Communist Party, which was banned by the Nazis in 1933, claims 9,500 members, including anti-fascists. In 2017, Red Aid reported paying more than $441,000 in support for left-wing activists.

Blair contended that governments that ignore ideological threats risk allowing movements such as Antifa to gain momentum.

“Governments almost always act too late against revolutionary movements and insurgencies,” he said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 06:30

7 Powerful Strategies From The Great Philosophers For A Better Life

Authored by Jonathan Millimore via The Epoch Times,

Fifteen years ago, I lost a job.

The timing was bad. My wife and I had just purchased our first home, and we were expecting our first child.

As editor of a small publication, I had refused to spike a story we were set to publish (it involved questionable political dealings of a prominent politician). Spiking the story would have been easy, but I couldn’t bring myself to do it. It felt wrong. So I prepared a resignation letter, hoping it wouldn’t come to that. (It did.)

Losing one’s job is rarely a satisfying occasion. But for me, it was. For one, the move turned out to be very good for me professionally. More importantly, I had stood for something. This made me proud—after the sting wore off.

1. Do the Right Thing

Though I didn’t realize it at the time, the episode was pivotal in my character development. The great Roman thinker Cicero believed that doing the right thing in the face of consequences is an essential part of virtue.

“He who sacrifices his duty to expediency is like one who cuts down the ship’s mast to escape a storm,” Cicero (106–43 B.C.) wrote in “On Duties.” “He is saved for the moment, but shipwrecked forever.”

The moral is simple: On important things, stand firm on principle, even if it costs you.

Here are six more strategies from great philosophers that can help you build a better life.

2. Rule Your Inner Life, Not Other People

Plato (428–347 B.C.) once said that the “first and greatest victory is to conquer yourself.” The Greek philosopher said it was the most “shameful and vile” of things to allow your inner desires to rule you.

Epictetus, writing 500 years later, urged people to focus energy inward. He believed happiness comes from moderating desires and choosing pleasures that are not enslaving. He wisely saw this as a path to freedom, both inward and outward. After all, a person who commands himself cannot be easily commanded by others.

Many people today focus their energy on trying to fix the world while neglecting their own inner life. This is folly. Conquer yourself first. Just remember, it’s not as easy as it sounds.

C.S. Lewis wrote in “Mere Christianity”: “No man knows how bad he is till he has tried very hard to be good.”

A woman meditates in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Nov. 7, 2023. Oleksii Pidsosonnyi/The Epoch Times

3. Value Work and Take Pleasure In It

Many postmodern thinkers see work as degrading, coercive, and alienating.

That’s not just a bleak view of work—it’s a false one. Many of us have experienced not just the material fruits of work (a paycheck) but the less tangible fulfillment it offers. As a young man, I worked as a waiter, a roofer, and a garbage collector—jobs some call demeaning or “exploitative.” I don’t want to romanticize those jobs—they were hard—but I gained more than money from each of them. Work, with the proper mindset, is one of the surest paths to self-improvement. It is also part of human nature, when done freely.

“It is the natural desire of every man to better his condition when he is secure of enjoying the fruits of his own labour,” philosopher Adam Smith observed in “The Wealth of Nations.”

Smith saw the dignity and independence that work offers. Creating value builds both character and community, and it is one of the truest expressions of human liberty.

A waiter works at a restaurant in Tijuana, Mexico, on July 5, 2024. Guillermo Arias/AFP via Getty Images

4. Pursue Your Own Happiness

Oscar Wilde once observed, “Unselfishness is letting other people’s lives alone, not interfering with them.”

The quote puts the individual in his proper place and reminds us of something important: You are the one in charge of your life. Not the tribe. Not the state. In a free society, individuals decide what they want and value. This is not “selfishness.” It’s a social good. The philosopher John Stuart Mill observed that society flourishes when people are free to choose their own actions and pursue their own dreams.

“In proportion to the development of his individuality, each person becomes more valuable to himself, and is therefore capable of being more valuable to others,” Mill wrote in “On Liberty.”

Choosing one’s own path—“the pursuit of happiness,” in Thomas Jefferson’s immortal words—is central to human dignity and flourishing. Don’t let anyone choose yours, but choose wisely and accept the responsibility that comes with that freedom.

5. Cultivate Virtue as a Habit (Especially Humility)

Aristotle believed that virtue was not something rulers could impose. In fact, virtue requires choice. He also said virtue is demonstrated and developed by our actions.

“We become just by doing just acts, temperate by doing temperate acts, brave by doing brave acts,” the philosopher wrote in “Nicomachean Ethics.”

There’s a lot of confusion over virtue today. Many would have you think that your beliefs make you a virtuous person. Nonsense. Virtue is attained. We become virtuous not through belief but through practice. So dedicate yourself to the four cardinal virtues—prudence, justice, fortitude, and temperance—and don’t forget to include humility, which Saint Augustine called “the foundation of all the other virtues.”

6. Face Death to Live Fully

The Roman philosopher Seneca (4 B.C.–A.D. 65) once said that the tragedy of life isn’t that it’s short, “but that we waste much of it. … So we must prepare for death every day.”

The words might sound macabre, but this is good advice. It’s easy to forget, but death is part of life. We don’t just lose loved ones along our way; we, too, will depart this earth. Writing in the journal First Things, filmmaker Caylan Ford said facing this reality comes with benefits.

“Awareness of death humbles us in our vanity, our hubris, and our contempt for others, and it dispels any illusions that we are in control of our fates,” she wrote.

Like many Greek thinkers, Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius believed it was irrational to fear death, which was the most natural of all things. Plato, meanwhile, tells us that Socrates went to his grave cheerfully despite his unjust death sentence.

“I think that a man who has truly spent his life in philosophy is probably right to be of good cheer in the face of death,” Socrates says in Plato’s “Phaedo.”

By facing death and accepting mortality, you learn how to live more fully—and more wisely.

Budimir Jevtic/Shutterstock

7. Wake Up Right

My pastor says the first thing he does in the morning is get on his knees and pray. It’s a habit I’ve tried to adopt, but with little success. I share the anecdote for a reason: Everyone has heard the idiom about “getting up on the wrong side of the bed.” It turns out that how (and when) we get out of bed matters.

It’s a cliché, but getting up early is important. There are clear benefits to rising early, including lower risk of depression. But how we get up matters almost as much as when. Marcus Aurelius thought it was so important that he prepared himself daily.

“When you wake up in the morning, tell yourself: The people I deal with today will be meddling ungrateful, arrogant, dishonest, jealous, and surly. They are like this because they can’t tell good from evil,” he wrote in “Meditations.”

Humans need sleep, but having the discipline to rise each morning and devote yourself—in mind and spirit—is important. As a father of three, I can attest that being present in the morning with one’s children—making them breakfast, getting them dressed, having them prepared for their day—is essential for a functioning family.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 05:45

EU's Former Border Chief Said Commissioner Pressured Him To Embrace Open Borders

Via Remix News,

Former Frontex chief and National Rally MEP Fabrice Leggeri has spoken about how the European Union elite exerted immense pressure on him when he tried to defend EU borders against mass migration, including a key commissioner who claimed it was his job to “welcome migrants.”

The Frontex Fundamental Rights Office has gradually expanded significantly.

In 2020 and 2021, Leggeri became the target of political attacks from the European Commission, led by Commissioner Ylva Johansson of the socialist Swedish Workers’ Party.

“When I looked through her CV before our first meeting, I thought: ‘She’s probably impossible to work with.’ But she was a commissioner and had real influence,” said the Frenchman. “[…] At our first meeting, I explained to her what we were doing – developing a European border and coast guard, with uniforms and weapons, and why we were experiencing some delays. She interrupted me and said: ‘You don’t need weapons and uniforms.’ Because, as she said, the role of the border guard is to welcome migrants,” Leggeri reported. 

He also said that Johansson threatened him twice, telling him: “Like it or not, your job is to welcome migrants.”

Leggeri was subjected to pressure for attempting to fulfill Frontex’s mandate – supporting member states in managing the EU’s external borders and combating cross-border crime, including illegal migration. 

The MEP, now a member of the Patriots for Europe group, shared the details with Ewa Zajączkowska-Hernik, a member of the Confederation’s European Parliament, according to the Do Rzezcy news portal.

Leggeri explained that initially, the European Commission showed some support for Frontex’s actions, but at the same time, it was increasingly pressured by the proliferation of pro-immigration NGOs. 

Their “activists,” calling themselves “defenders of fundamental rights,” gradually attempted to “advise” and “consult” Frontex against counteracting the influx of illegal migrants. They recommended, for example, busing illegal immigrants from the Belarusian-Lithuanian border to Lithuania and Poland. 

Therefore, Leggeri advised the Polish authorities against using Frontex’s assistance.

“It was October 2019. That’s when I felt real pressure, political hostility towards the very idea of ​​border management. Previously, the idea was to create a kind of European border guard to support national border services. But from the moment Johansson arrived, various organized actions began against me and Frontex itself,” Leggeri said. He added that George Soros’ Open Society Foundation and some left-wing media outlets were involved.

As he explained, Johansson and Soros’ operatives worked to take over Frontex from within and reinforce left-wing NGO activists who would ensure the entry of illegal migrants into European countries. The idea was to create a command structure parallel to that of the member states, in order to paralyze border defenses against illegal aliens. This selected staff, so-called “fundamental rights controllers” and “independent officers,” went into the field, including to Lithuania, and began intimidating member states’ border guards by claiming that the orders issued by their superiors were allegedly illegal.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 05:00

Where The World Eats The Most (And Least) Meat

Which countries eat the most meat?

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz details below, according to UN Food and Agriculture Organization data reported by website World Population Review, the United States, Argentina and Australia are in the top of the global meat-eating league with more than 110 kg consumed per capita in 2022.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Countries which top 100 kg of meat consumed per person and year also include Mongolia, Spain and Israel.

While wealthier countries tend to eat more meat, the status of meat in local cuisine also plays a major role in consumption patterns.

The least meat in the world is eaten in Africa as well as in South Asia - due to meat being unaffordable for many in the regions, cultural factors or a mix of both.

While India posted no data for 2022, it was also among those consuming the least meat in previous years, together with Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Bangladesh.

The economic and supply struggles in conflict regions are also visible on the map, with very little meat consumed in Syria and Yemen. This also applies to North Korea.

Studies, like this landmark release by Nature in 2018, have found that Western countries would have to reduce their meat intake by 90 percent to limit climate change to acceptable levels.

To ensure that nutritional needs continue to be met with reduced meat production, the survey recommends increasing the consumption of beans and other pulses to create a climate-friendly protein supply.

Good luck with that!

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 04:15

"We Just Won": Trump Gloats After Bill Gates Admits Climate Change Won't End World

In the late 1970s, after 'global cooling' armageddon science fell out of fashion, a well-oiled machine comprised of billionaire-funded NGOs, the MSM, Hollywood, woke Wall Street, and a robust fact-checking / censorship cartel - started pushing a cult narrative about the planet's imminent demise in a hellish inferno of global warming. They've blamed everything from cow farts and Taylor Swift's private jet to two-stroke chainsaws, petrol-powered cars, and whatever else these climate Marxists wanted banned - and forced people into authoritarian bullshit like 'electric stoves only' and '15 minute cities' and 'eat the bugs,' etc. 

Now, as data centers are coincidentally projected to need record amounts of electricity, Bill Gates has changed his mind about all of that.

In 2019 Bill Gates was saying that we had to stop cows from farting, eat fake meat, and get to net zero emissions globally to prevent climate catastrophe.

If you questioned any of it, you were called an uneducated, science-denying caveman.

Today Gates said that we will never… pic.twitter.com/O0z0fDhoOd

— MAZE (@mazemoore) October 28, 2025

And of course the climate cult was one giant grift - or as one former DOGE worker put it, "a heist on the U.S. Treasury" carried out through propaganda that allowed 'virtuous' climate bills to be passed easily. 

To see this machine in action, look no further than the number of news articles which warned of a "climate crisis" going back 10 years: 

And yet, despite decades of gospel over melting ice caps and doom, Gates simply shreds it and decides it's ackshually not such a big deal. 

To wit, his new forecast is that climate change "won't lead to humanity's demise." 

Today, Bill Gates admitted that pushing climate doomerism was a mistake.@LLBiggers: “That shift to common sense is welcome, but it comes after decades of fearmongering that harmed young people, stalled development, and punished dissenting scientists.” pic.twitter.com/rUpjSAC0BR

— The Free Press (@TheFP) October 28, 2025

And now, Trump is gloating!

"I (WE!) just won the War on the Climate Change Hoax. Bill Gates has finally admitted that he was completely WRONG on the issue. It took courage to do so, and for that we are all grateful. MAGA!!!" Trump wrote on Truth Social. 

Weird that Gates didn't come to this conclusion before Big Tech needed tons of energy, fast, which means fossil fuels.

Latest on Gates Foundation: 

• Senate Judiciary Launches Probe Into Gates Foundation's Alleged Funding Of Chinese Military Fronts

• Trump Calls For RICO Charges Against Soros Over Violent Protest Support; Gates Foundation Abruptly Severs Ties With Rogue Arabella Advisors

It's important to understand that there is a war being waged on the minds of the American people. The last five years of fake climate doom headlines were merely a move to enrich Democrat allies, such as climate NGOs, with taxpayer funds.  

Keep in mind, anyone who questioned the climate change narrative was silenced. Very authoritarian by Democrats and their billionaire 'Kings' ... 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 18:00