Trump Downplays Iran's Attacks Targeting US Bases In Kuwait & Bahrain: 'They Were Slightly Provoked'

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

President Trump on Wednesday downplayed Iranian attacks that targeted US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, saying they may have been "slightly provoked" since the US launched strikes against Iran beforehand.

"There's a reason for everything, and we hit them pretty hard last night," the president told reporters in the Oval Office. "Some people would say they were slightly provoked because we took a strong action for a different reason, so they were reciprocating."

Source: The White House

Iran launched the missile and drone attacks after the US bombed a commercial ship attempting to reach Iran and launched strikes on Iran’s Qeshm island.

During the Iranian attack on Kuwait, a passenger terminal at Kuwait’s international airport was hit, and at least one person was killed, and more than 60 were injured. Local officials said the terminal was hit by Iranian drones, which Iran denied, claiming that it was struck by an errant US Patriot missile interceptor.

Kuwait’s aviation authority later released a video of the strike that appeared to show a drone striking the terminal.

US Central Command denied Iran’s allegation in a statement that came after it claimed that Iranian missiles fired at Kuwait "fell short or broke apart en route" and a second wave of Iranian drones failed to hit their intended targets.

"An additional wave of Iranian drones attempting to attack US forces in Kuwait failed to impact intended targets tonight. US Central Command air defenses successfully downed multiple drones and ensured no American personnel or assets were harmed," CENTCOM said.

Trump on Iran attacking Kuwait:

There is a reason for everything, and we hit them pretty hard... They were slightly provoked; they were reciprocating. pic.twitter.com/VvIgyJHb3m

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 3, 2026

Despite the casualties at the Kuwait airport, Trump said the Iranian attacks were "not a big deal" and that the US "nipped it in the bud very quickly." When asked if the ceasefire was still in place, he said, "In that part of the world, ‘ceasefire’ is when you’re shooting in a more moderate manner."

Iran’s attacks were its most significant response yet to US violations of the ceasefire, representing a new Iranian strategy to avoid more “tit-for-tat” strikes. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi vowed on Wednesday that Tehran would continue to have a strong response to any US attacks.

"Our Armed Forces are conducting self-defense strikes on sites the US is permitted to use to attack civilian shipping and violate the ceasefire," Araghchi wrote on X in a post that included a video of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio praising the UAE and Kuwait for being cooperative with US military operations.

Kuwait's civil aviation authority released surveillance footage it says is an Iranian drone crashing into its international airport on Wednesday.

Follow live updates on the Iran war: https://t.co/s1XGe7eeW2 pic.twitter.com/5LTFWaj0sX

— ABC News (@ABC) June 4, 2026

"Any hostile act will be met with an immediate, decisive response. What sanctions and war failed to achieve won’t be won with more war," the top Iranian diplomat added.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 08:45

Jobless Claims Jump As US Tech Firms Announce Most Job Cuts In 2 Years

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time jumped to its highest in three months last week at 225k (215k exp), but this remains well within the range of the last five years...

Source: Bloomberg

The biggest increase in initial claims came from California while Texas saw the biggest decline...

Continuing Jobless Claims dipped to 1.777 million Americans (remaining below the 1.8mm Maginot Line), just above two year lows...

Source: Bloomberg

However, despite the seemingly solid claims data, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports that US tech companies in May announced the most job cuts in nearly two years as they ramp up spending on artificial intelligence.

The tech sector said last month it planned to eliminate 38,242 positions, the most since August 2024.

Total private-sector job cut announcements, meanwhile, were down 7% over the past five months versus the same period a year earlier, reinforcing the picture of an ongoing “low-hire, low-fire” environment in most industries.

In May, Artificial Intelligence (AI) led all reasons for job cuts for the third month in a row, with 38,579 announced cuts.

It is the highest monthly total ever recorded for the reason since Challenger began tracking it in 2023, and it accounted for 40% of all cuts announced in May - up from just 7% in January, 25% in March, and 26% in April.

For the year, AI has been cited in 87,714 cuts, or 22% of all 2026 layoffs, already far surpassing the 54,836 attributed to the reason in all of 2025.

“The labor market is being reshaped by technology in real time,” said Andy Challenger, the company’s chief revenue officer.

“AI is now the leading reason companies give for cutting jobs.”

The figures jibe with recent high-profile, AI-related workforce reduction plans announced by companies including Meta Platforms Inc., Intuit Inc. and Cisco Systems Inc. Filings for unemployment insurance, however, haven’t meaningfully increased despite the slew of layoff announcements, which have mostly been targeted at white-collar positions.

On the bright side, through May 2026, U.S. employers have announced 80,472 planned hires, narrowly topping the 79,741 announced at this point in 2025. However, hiring announcements remain historically low by pre-pandemic standards.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 08:34

Hezbollah Chief Rejects US-Mediated Israel Truce; Trump To Maintain Ceasefire With Iran Unless American Troops Killed Summary

• Hezbollah chief rejects outcome of Lebanon-Israel talks, insisting that a truce must encompass whole country.
• WSJ reports that the White House intends to maintain a ceasefire with Iran unless American troops are killed; oil drops also after Trump states on TS 
• Trump lashes out after House War Powers votes passes Wednesday evening, attacking especially four Republicans who voted in favor.
• Trump downplayed Iran's attacks on US bases in Kuwait & Bahrain, saying "they were slightly provoked...so they were reciprocating."

//--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 25% · No 76%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

IAEA: Iran Nuclear Risk Higher than When War Began

Stating the obvious:

According to Bloomberg, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has published a “restricted” document which reveals that the nuclear risk posed by Iran is now higher today than it was before the war began. Specifically, prior to the war, the IAEA was allowed to inspect Iranian enriched uranium, but such inspections have since largely halted. However, it should be noted that the IAEA was always only inspected where the IRGC told them they were allowed to, and many suspected that nuclear proliferation was happening behind the scenes, in facilities that were not accessible to the IAEA.

Hezbollah Rejects Outcome of Lebanon-Israel Talks: Secretary General

Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem in new speech rejects the Washington-mediated conclusion to direct Lebanon-Israel talks:

Naim Qassem has warned that Israeli areas across the border will remain under threat as long as the Lebanese people and villages come under attack from the Israeli army.

He also rejected attempts to tie the group’s deployment to wider political arrangements, saying the group refuses any link between Hezbollah’s presence and a ceasefire, or Israel’s withdrawal.

Some highlights from Qassem's address:

• 'The revolution in Iran was launched from an Islamic background on the principles of resisting injustice and occupation, and it announced that it is neither Eastern nor Western"
• 'The West and America will not accept Iran as a model of righteousness and justice; rather, they want it to be subordinate to their interests and their tyranny."
• 'Thanks to Iran for helping us to regain our land and our right to confront the Israeli-American aggression despite its major confrontations"; describes direct negotiations as "absurd and humiliating" for Lebanon.
• As long as Israel is in Lebanon, resistance will continue.
• Northern Israel will remain at risk as long as Lebanese villages are being bombed.
• "We are only concerned with ending the comprehensive aggression—with a ceasefire and the withdrawal of “Israel""
• As long as the occupation exists, the resistance will continue.
• "We have not given any commitment to anyone not to resist the aggression and respond to it. And as long as the aggression continues, we will confront it with all the power we have."
• "The main objective must be the withdrawal from Lebanese territories so that the army spreads in the south of the Litani River and the liberation of the detainees"
• "We do not accept any link between the existence of the resistance, the cessation of aggression and the withdrawal of "Israel"

Iran's foreign ministry is also still insisting that the broader US-Iran ceasefire must incorporate Lebanon.

Oil Prices Fall As Trump to Maintain Iran Ceasefire Unless American Troops Are Killed

President Trump in an early Thursday morning Truth Social post has said the United States is "in the middle of my final negotiations to end the War" - while blasting the Republicans who voted the night prior to limit war powers "GRANDSTANDERS" and "unpatriotic".

Even though Iran is denying that any direct negotiations are taking place, following a big flare-up this week in new tit-for-tat fighting which involved Iran sending more missiles and drones on Gulf states, especially Kuwait, the reference to 'final negotiations' was possibly enough to get oil prices to react, with a drop in crude. There was also a report that the White House intends to maintain a ceasefire with Iran unless American troops are killed.

Trump's new apparent strategy to just wait things out with no new planned military attacks has been featured in The Wall Street Journal as follows:

President Trump has told aides privately that he would consider ending the ceasefire with Iran if Tehran kills American troops, U.S. officials said, insisting that the weekslong pause in airstrikes remains intact despite a steady stream of violent skirmishes.

The president’s reluctance to reignite the war suggests he might be willing to withstand smaller flare-ups for weeks—or even months—to avoid a broader conflict in the Middle East.

And Rubio appeared to second this in fielding questions about this week's violence:

Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the tit-for-tat attacks as purely defensive in nature and not a renewed outbreak of full-scale war. 

“They are happening in response to an Iranian action,” Rubio said in a House hearing Wednesday. “If they don’t shoot at those ships, we don’t shoot, but we have to respond.”

More evidence of Trump's apparently high tolerance for what he deems a violation of ceasefire:

Trump on Iran:

In that part of the world, a ceasefire is when you are shooting in a more moderate manner. pic.twitter.com/0mLQXf9mW8

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 3, 2026

House War Powers Vote Wed. Evening

As for the House vote, it was seen as a rare direct rebuke of Trump and the fact that this war - which the American public was promised would be a 'short' military action of possibly a few 'days' or 'weeks' - is now approaching 100 days, and the war powers passed 215-208, with the four Republicans joining all Democrats in voting yes being Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Tom Barrett of Michigan and Warren Davidson of Ohio.

Pushing Lebanon Truce Toward Goal Line

In Lebanon, there is some remotely positive news, with Lebanon ‌and Israel ​saying had ⁠agreed ​to implement ⁠a ceasefire during talks in Washington and overseen by the US; however, once again the deal is contingent on Hezbollah agreeing to the ceasefire.

"That cease-fire is conditional on Hezbollah also stopping fighting, but in theory, the news helps to take out a key sticking point in the U.S.-Iran talks that was holding up a deal. So that’s seen oil prices reverse a run of three [days of] consecutive gains," Deutsche Bank analyst Henry Allen stated in a research note.

Trump rages at House's successful War Powers vote, which could portend a political shake-up going into this Fall's midterm elections:

Some More Latest Developments

via Al Jazeera:

• Hezbollah boss warns north Israel won’t be safe if Lebanon bombed
• Several people have been wounded in an Israeli drone attack on a vehicle after Israel and Lebanon officials agreed to halt the war during a series of meetings in Washington, DC.
• Before the truce announcement, Hezbollah said it launched a “salvo of rockets” at Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon’s Qantara, and fired drones at troops near the strategic Beaufort Castle.
• The US House of Representatives passed a resolution to rein in President Donald Trump’s powers to attack Iran without congressional authorisation in a vote of 215 to 208.
• Overnight Israeli air strikes on an apartment block in Gaza City killed at least nine Palestinians with four children among the dead.
• Iran’s foreign policy a ‘consensus’ process but supreme leader gets final say

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 08:30

Futures Slide After Broadcom Forecast Miss Chills Tech Euphoria

US equity futures are weaker, dragged lower by Tech after a disappointing outlook from Broadcom triggered doubts that the blistering rally in technology shares had gone too far, a move exacerbated by euphoric positioning. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures dropped 0.4%, while Nasdaq futures slumped 1.2%. Broadcom, which added around $150 billion in market value just this week, slumped 13% in US premarket trading after its forecast for artificial-intelligence semiconductor revenue in the current quarter fell short of expectations. CrowdStrike shares also drop 10% after their revenue projection failed to impress investors. Semis are under pressure following AVGO’s earnings, while Mag7 are bid led by AAPL (+1%). Parts of Cyclicals and Defensives are bid as portions of the AI Theme are weaker pointing to a potential de-risking or the very early stages a rotation. Given the sell off in APAC and EU bid, it appears to be the former rather than the latter. Bond yields are lower as the curve bull steepens, and USD weakens.  Commodities are lower as Energy sells-off on news that Israel / Lebanon will resume their conditional ceasefire within 24 hours (although Hezbollah was notably not mentioned); but, precious metals are a notable outperformer. Today’s macro data focus is on Challenge Job Cuts, Initial Claims, and Continuing Claims, with NFP coming tomorrow. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Microsoft +0.8%, Amazon +1.1%, Apple +1%, Alphabet +0.4%, Nvidia -1%, Meta Platforms -0.7%, Tesla -0.8%. 

• Broadcom (AVGO) is down 14% after the chipmaker gave an outlook that was seen as underwhelming, given the industry’s AI-related demand. Analysts note that AI sales and margins for the current quarter are weaker than expected. AI-linked companies fall after Broadcom’s outlook for AI chip revenue failed to impress investors. Decliners include Intel (INTC), which is down about 4%, and Lumentum (LITE), which is falling 3%.
• Cryptocurrency-linked stocks fall as Bitcoin extended losses for a fifth consecutive session after renewed clashes in the Middle East weighed on market sentiment.
• Ciena (CIEN) falls 5% after the maker of equipment used by telecom companies posted quarterly results.
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) falls 10% as the security software company’s first-quarter beat wasn’t strong enough to lift the stock that has more than doubled from a March low.
• Five Below (FIVE) falls 10% after the retailer reported results, and while the quarter was a “standout,” the growth rate might be peaking, according to Jefferies.
• Netskope (NTSK) tumbles 19% after the cloud security firm reported an adjusted loss of 6 cents per share in the first quarter.
• Petco (WOOF) falls 12% after the pet health and wellness company’s adjusted Ebitda forecast for the second quarter came in below the average analyst estimate.
• PVH (PVH) slides 22% after reaffirmed adjusted earnings-per-share guidance from the owner of the Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger brands missed consensus estimates. Analysts note sustained pressures from the Middle East conflict.
• UnitedHealth (UNH) rises 2% after BofA Global Research upgraded the health insurer to buy, citing improving medical cost trends.

In other corporate news, Eli Lilly and BioNTech joined a growing chorus of drugmakers warning that proposed healthcare reforms in Germany risk undermining investment in Europe’s biggest economy. Some members of the billionaire Glazer family have been debating whether to sell their stake in Manchester United FC, after more than 20 years of ownership.  Netflix is using AI to help customers cut through the noise of content overload. In other news, Alphabet upsized its equity raise to $84.75 billion from the $80 billion it announced just two days earlier. Mike O’Rourke at Jonestrading said a recent Alphabet investor presentation “sounds like bragging about plans to spend beyond free cash flow generation.” He questioned what he called “a bold spending stance at such an early juncture” in the competitive industry. Elsewhere, SpaceX is seeking to raise $75 billion in a record IPO to fund expansion of its AI, rocket launch and satellite infrastructure. Based on the SEC filing, it would have a market value of almost $1.77 trillion. 

Broadcom reminded upside-chasing investors that risk still exists in markets, with its shares tanking 12% in premarket trading after it issued a disappointing forecast for full-year sales of its AI chips. Still, if the stock opens at similar levels in the cash market, it’ll only be back to where it was trading last Thursday. Those earnings followed weeks of “great-to-amazing results from its competitors and partners, which meant the bar was extremely high (some would say impossibly high),” notes Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli. The stock had soared 65% from its 2026 trough on March 30, making it the third-biggest point contributor to the S&P 500’s 20% surge.

The downturn extended to other corners of the tech trade, with cybersecurity firm Crowdstrike Holdings Inc. dropping 10% even after raising its revenue forecast. The sector also fueled losses in Asia, where South Korea’s Kospi index fell 1.8% while the Korean Won tumbled to the lowest since 2009. Europe’s benchmark was down 0.2%. 

Tech and AI will remain in focus for traders: earnings are due from Ciena premarket and AI pioneers are due to speak at Bloomberg Tech — while TSMC reminds us that chip supply won’t meet AI-fueled demand for years. Chipmaker Cerebras Systems said it plans to cooperate with a wide variety of suppliers of AI data center components, except Nvidia. 

Concern over the AI trade threatens to dent a record-breaking rally that has seen global gauges shake off worries about the biggest disruption to oil markets in history. The risk-off tone comes even as Brent heads for its first daily retreat of the week, trading 1.4% lower at about $96.40 a barrel.

“Valuations are looking slightly frothy in pockets of the market which have seen the strongest gains over recent weeks,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin. “A leadership change in equities is not unlikely at this point, with less powerful drivers than tech taking over.”

In hedge fund news, D.E. Shaw is extending the time it will take investors to fully exit two of its biggest hedge funds, as it joins peers such as Millennium and Citadel in seeking to keep client cash for longer.

In politics, the Republican-led House voted to halt the US war with Iran, breaking with President Donald Trump on an unpopular conflict. Trump announced that he planned to soon make Todd Blanche “permanent attorney general” months after he assumed that post in an acting capacity. 

European stocks have fared better as oil prices retreat, with the Stoxx 600 little changed. The Stoxx 600 was up 0.2%, led by consumer stocks which were boosted by positive earnings from Remy Cointreau. The artificial intelligence trade took a breather following a disappointing outlook from Broadcom. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Remy Cointreau shares rose as much as 15%, the most since January 2024, after the French alcoholic drink maker reported earnings that slightly beat consensus profit expectations
• CMC Markets shares rose as much as 18% to highest since August 2021, after the online trading platform guided to stronger-than-expected FY27 revenue and highlighted accelerating growth across its partnerships and institutional businesses
• Abivax shares climbed as much as 14% in Paris, extending a rally after the stock plunged due to cancer cases in a crucial clinical trial
• Puuilo shares rose as much as 6.3%, the most since March, after DNB Carnegie predicted that upcoming first-quarter earnings would show the Finnish retail group started the year on a “solid footing,” helped by improving consumption
• Partners Group shares rose as much as 1.8%, attempting to recover from the previous day’s record 16% drop that was triggered by the Swiss investment firm’s decision to cap withdrawals from one of its private equity funds
• Universal Music shares fell as much as 7.6% on Thursday morning to €17.74 after Bill Ackman sold his €1.42 billion ($1.65 billion) stake in the record label just days after the Amsterdam-listed company rejected a takeover bid by the hedge fund billionaire
• Tech hardware stocks in Europe fall on Thursday and pare their year-to-date gains after US-listed Broadcom gave an outlook for artificial intelligence revenue that missed more bullish expectations
• Pirelli shares declined as much as 13% as Grizzly Research said it’s short the Italian tire maker, citing concerns regarding the company’s exposure to Russia
• Burckhardt Compression shares fell as much as 13%, the largest daily drop in over six years, after the Swiss industrial manufacturer’s full-year results showed a significant drop in order intake
• Intrum fell as much as 19%, the most in a month, after the Swedish credit management firm announced the terms of its SEK7.5 billion capital raise

Asian stocks are poised to snap a four-day winning streak as the artificial intelligence rally that drove a regional benchmark to record highs lost steam, following Broadcom’s underwhelming forecast. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.8%, on pace for its worst day since May 15. Chip-related companies including Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC were among the biggest drags. Most markets in the region slipped, led by South Korea, Indonesia and Taiwan.  The blistering rally in Asian chip stocks has left them exposed to any doubts about the durability of the AI boom. Broadcom’s weaker-than-expected guidance rattled investor confidence, sparking declines in shares that had benefited from high expectations for sustained tech hardware spending.

In FX, the Swedish krona is the best performing G-10 currency, rising 0.6% against the greenback after CPI surprised to the upside. The South Korean won fell to the lowest since 2009 even as the government pledged to curb excessive volatility.

In rates, treasuries trade near session highs in early US session, with modest gains led by front-end tenors amid oil price declines. Yields in 2-year sector yields are nearly 4bp lower on the day.  Treasuries outperform bunds and gilts, with Bank of England Governor slated to speak at 11:40am New York time.US yields are 1bp to 3bp richer across a steeper curve, leaving 5s30s spread 2bp wider on the day near session highs; 10-year near 4.47% is 2bp lower, outperforming bunds and gilts in the sector by more than 1bp

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down more than 2% following three straight increases; Washington and Tehran have a framework to extend a truce agreement by two months, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but an agreement hasn’t been reached and sporadic attacks have resumed.Oil prices and yields extended declines in early US trading after US President Donald Trump said negotiations to end the war in Iran were in final stages, repeating a comment he’s made at least twice since mid-May. Precious metals advance while Bitcoin falls to the lowest since before the Iran war began. 

US economic data calendar includes 1Q final productivity and unit labor costs and weekly jobless claims (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Barkin (8:30am), Bowman (10am), Daly (11:40am, 1:10pm) and Schmid (1pm)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• An informed source to Al Arabiya said the agreement on the release of frozen Iranian funds in its final stages, but the search continues for a mechanism on frozen funds. However, US President Trump informed the mediators of his refusal to release funds to Iran before signing the agreement.
• Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire in US-brokered talks, with the ceasefire contingent on Hezbollah's evacuation from the Litani. Despite this, there have been reports of continuing attacks in Southern Lebanon.
• House backed a resolution curbing Trump's Iran war powers with the House voting 215 to 208 to pass the War Powers resolution.
• Nasdaq Futures Tumble as Broadcom Tests AI Trade: BBG
• SpaceX Seeks $75 Billion in Record IPO to Fund AI, Launch: BBG
• Challenger Job Cuts (May) 97.006K (Prev. 83.387K); May Job Cuts Rise 16% from April, the highest May total since 2020.
• Trump is to announce nearly USD 700mln in coal support and to use the Defence Production Act for the coal sector: Axios.
• Trump Says He Plans to Make Blanche ‘Permanent Attorney General’: WSJ
• Agricultural Secretary Rollins announced additional USDA personnel deployment to South Texas, and urged livestock producers to remain vigilant, while she stated that potential New World screwworm detection is being fully contained and is not a harm to US food supply or safety.

Iran War News

• US President Trump said they have been hitting Iran pretty hard and Iran negotiations are going well, while he suggested a deal could happen over the weekend and said anything can happen when you are dealing with Iran, but also stated it could go another two or three weeks. Trump also stated he would rather not use the military in Iran, and would rather not wipe Iran out, as well as noted that they are close to signing papers in theory. Furthermore, Trump said they are trying to separate Iran and Lebanon issues, while he responded that in that part of the world, a ceasefire is when you're shooting in a more moderate manner, when questioned about the ceasefire.
• US President Trump told aides privately that he would consider ending the ceasefire with Iran if US troops are killed, according to WSJ.
• An informed source to Al Arabiya said the agreement on the release of frozen Iranian funds in its final stages but the search continues for a mechanism on frozen funds. US President Trump informed the mediators of his refusal to release funds to Iran before signing the agreement. The source notes that the main obstacle relates to the mechanism for disposing of part of the frozen Iranian funds and there is a proposal to create a special fund for depositing frozen Iranian funds that is under discussion.
• Sources noted that the first phase of the interim agreement between the US and Iran involves cessation of direct military operations, phase 2 is a full reopening of maritime traffic, phase 3 includes limited easing of some sanctions and phase 4 includes major issues such as the Iranian nuclear program, according to Al Hadath.
• Pakistani Foreign Minister, on reports of halted US-Iran talks, said "Our dialogue process continues”, Pakistani journalist Mallick posted.
• Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire in US-brokered talks, with the ceasefire contingent on Hezbollah's evacuation from the Litani, while Lebanese armed forces will take control of pilot zones, and Israel and Lebanon agreed to reconvene negotiations in the week of 22nd June.
• US State Department confirmed Israel and Lebanon agreed to the implementation of a ceasefire and that the sides agreed with guidance of the US to swiftly advance creation of pilot zones in which Lebanese armed forces will take exclusive control of the territory. Israel and Lebanon also reaffirmed they have no hostile intent towards one another and are committed to continuing negotiations.
• Lebanese President said the implementation of the ceasefire could begin within 24 hours of final approval, Arab News reported.
• The Israeli army has begun withdrawing its forces from Dibbin in southern Lebanon, Al Hadath reported.
• Israeli Defence Minister said the IDF will continue its operations on the ground in Lebanon at this stage, Al Hadath reported. "The Lebanese will not return to the south and we will continue to destroy infrastructure."
• Israeli military said fighting in Southern Lebanon continues.
• Israeli airstrikes were reported in several areas in southern Lebanon, according to SNN.
• Hezbollah attacked Israeli positions in southern Lebanon.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were lower following the negative handover from the US, where risk sentiment was weighed on by the recent retaliatory attacks between the US and Iran, as well as weakness in tech stocks. ASX 200 was pressured by underperformance in the mining and materials industries, while most sectors were subdued aside from the resilience in defensives. Nikkei 225 retreated from record levels and briefly tested the 67,000 level to the downside amid intervention risks following FX comments from Japanese PM Takaichi, while comments from BoJ Governor Ueda signalled the central bank could resume rate normalisation this month. On that front, hawkish BoJ sources noted the central bank is to mull a hike this month, with another possible in 2026. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat mood amid tech-related headwinds and with the PBoC refraining from open market operations for a second consecutive day.

Top Asian News

• Australian Balance of Trade (Apr) 1.791B vs. Exp. -1.61B (Prev. -1.841B).
• Australian Imports MoM (Apr) M/M 0.8% (Prev. 14.1%).
• Australian Exports MoM (Apr) M/M 7.2% (Prev. -2.7%).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) started the European morning on a positive footing, as markets digested positive geopolitical updates from President Trump and a Lebanon-Israel ceasefire. However, markets have since soured amidst reports that Israel were conducting operations in Lebanon, and following the negative action seen across the pond. European sectors are mixed. Retail (+1.7%) continues to gain following the earnings by Inditex on Wednesday. Consumer Products & Services (+1.7%) and Travel & Leisure (+1.2%) round out the top 3. The laggards include Telecoms (-1.6%), Media (-1.6%) and Basic Resources (-1.1%).

Top European News

• UK PM Starmer is considering watering down plans to boost defence spending by GBP 18bln over concerns that they are unaffordable, according to The Times.

FX

• The Buck is lower this morning vs initially starting the European morning flat. Not really any geopolitical market-moving headlines overnight; however, the Buck was pushed lower after hawkish BoJ sources (see below). In terms of Fed speak since the close, Williams said he sees no obvious direction for rates and no reason to change them. Logan said higher rates could be needed later this year. Ahead, Daly, Bowman & Barkin are slated to speak.
• JPY is slightly firmer and trading in line with most G10s. Sources told Bloomberg and Reuters that the BoJ would raise rates at the June meeting, with the Bloomberg piece suggesting more tightening was possible in 2026. Markets assign 20bps of tightening in June (80% probability), with an additional 20bps implied by year-end. The BBG report saw a 35-pip move lower in USD/JPY over ten minutes, which ultimately proved fleeting, with Yen fundamentals remaining bearish and two hikes close to being fully priced this year. A strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities said: “Even if the BoJ raises rates in June, any rebound in the yen will be limited”. USD/JPY trades higher by 0.1%, a touch below the 160.00 mark.
• CHF is performing well against the Euro and Buck after CPI metrics from Switzerland. Although a cooler-than-expected report is unlikely to shift the dial for policymakers at the SNB. This is because the headline remains towards the lower half of the 0-2% target band, and the SNB continues to make clear that inflation meets its medium-term stability objective. As such, policy is expected to remain at the ZLB for the foreseeable future. EUR/CHF -0.1% at 0.9181, USDCHF -0.3% at 0.7896.

Central Banks

• Fed's Logan (2026 voter) said she is increasingly concerned higher interest rates could be necessary later this year and monetary policy is not restraining the economy, while she added that inflation is taking too long to return to 2%, economic activity remains strong and corporate earnings are 'going gangbusters'. Logan said financial conditions are accommodative, and the labour market is stable, but separately noted that the higher price of gas is feeding through to prices of other goods and services. Furthermore, she stated that mildly restrictive policy is needed and that the current monetary policy looks neutral or loose.
• RBA Governor Bullock said the RBA expects inflation to increase further in the near term and notes flow of data and development since May has not been materially different to our expectations. She notes that inflation is too high, and the board will do what it considers necessary to achieve its mandate of delivering price stability and full employment. Some signs of tightening impact already seen, but full effects to take 1 to 2 years.
• BoJ is said to mull a June rate hike with another possible in 2026 and sees less need to cut bond buys at the same pace in FY27, according to Bloomberg source reported. Reuters then corroborated this report.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are mixed as energy prices cool a touch after President Trump said Iran negotiations are going well, while he suggested a deal could happen over the weekend. Though noted that it could go another two or three weeks. Separately, reports suggest that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire, though recent reports have suggested that the Israeli army is continuing its operations in the region. This uncertainty has led to the tentative action across fixed paper this morning.
• USTs (+4 ticks) are slightly firmer and trade within a narrow 109-12+ to 109-19+ range. Really not much driving the action this morning aside from geopolitics, but domestic data will likely garner some attention later. To recap, ISM Manufacturing & Services indicate a solid activity picture, with labour market reports (ADP/JOLTS) also pushing back on near-term rate cut expectations. Ahead, focus will be on: Jobless Claims (May/30), Revelio PLS (May), and Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators Final (May).
• JGBs (-20 ticks) are on the back foot this morning for two key reasons: a) hawkish BoJ reports, b) an enhanced-liquidity auction. Delving into the report, Bloomberg first reported that the BoJ is mulling a hike in June, and potentially one more this year. Moreover, a source said that the Bank sees less need to pare back its bond purchasing plans. This was later corroborated by a Reuters piece, where a source said, “Unless there's a severe escalation in the conflict, the BOJ will probably hike rates in June”. Before the sources piece, markets already expected the Bank to hike in June; therefore, the pressure in JGBs this morning stems from comments related to the plans later in the year.
• Bunds and Gilts follow the tentative action seen in USTs, but are lower by a handful of ticks. Domestic updates for EZ have been lacking this morning, but traders will eye Retail Sales. Irrespective of the report, the ECB is set to hike at the June meeting – money markets assign a 96% chance of such a decision; another hike is then priced in for October.
• France sells EUR 13.998bln vs exp. EUR 12-14bln 3.70% 2036, 4.00% 2038, 3.60% 2042, 4.40% 2057 OAT.
• Spain sells EUR 4.973bln vs exp. EUR 4.5-5.5bln 2.35% 2029, 3.10% 2031 and 3.50% 2041 Bono and EUR 0.593bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 2.05% 2039 I/L Bono.

Commodities

• Crude markets are on a softer footing amid ongoing mediation efforts to broker some sort of US-Iran deal following two flare-ups earlier this week. In terms of the major updates, US President Trump said negotiations with Iran were progressing and suggested a deal could come within days, although talks could also continue for several more weeks. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Rubio said the US is awaiting Iran’s final sign-off on negotiations surrounding Tehran’s nuclear programme. On the other side, Iranian officials outlined a four-stage framework for a potential agreement with the US. The four-stage proposal for a deal with the US includes: 1) Ending the war, 2) tangible measures re. the Strait, 3) sanctions and nuclear issues, 4) the establishment of a supervisory committee. More recently, Al Arabiya reported that the agreement on the release of frozen Iranian funds is in its final stages, albeit the search continues for a mechanism for frozen funds. The sources added that Trump informed the mediators of his refusal to release funds to Iran before signing the agreement. Elsewhere, Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a US-brokered ceasefire framework and continue negotiations, although since the ceasefire, Hezbollah and IDF continued to exchange fire in the south of Lebanon.
• WTI Jul and Brent Aug futures are subdued in USD 94.06-95.91/bbl and USD 95.61-97.44/bbl ranges, respectively, at the time of writing, with fleeting downside seen on the aforementioned Al Arabiya sources. Dutch TTF ekes mild gains (+0.2%) but trades choppy on either side of EUR 49/MWh. “Positioning data for TTF continues to show that investment funds have been somewhat unfazed by ongoing LNG supply disruptions in the Middle East amid optimism over a resumption of LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz”, analysts at ING write.
• Spot gold and silver are firmer after yesterday's losses, with the yellow metal finding support this morning at its 200 DMA (USD 4,423/oz) before rebounding to trade in a current USD 4,423-4,484/oz range. Spot silver trades in a USD 72.45-73.91/oz range, still some way off yesterday’s peak at USD 75.33/oz.
• Base metals are mostly lower amid the broader cautious risk tone. 3M LME copper ekes mild gains but remains under USD 14,000/t in a USD 13,701.13- 13,849.00/t at the time of writing.
• Russian Deputy PM Novak said Russia expects to reach its OPEC+ oil production quota this year. The oil market has not yet fully seen the consequences of the Middle East conflict, and stockpiles are being used. There has been no oil production lower than the start of the year due to “unscheduled maintenance” at refineries.
• Russian Deputy PM Novak said OPEC+ countries do not plan to share the UAE's oil output quota.
• Russia's Investment Fund Head Dmitriev said the EU is already going to make a number of concessions to Russia on energy as they need this for survival, TASS reported.
• China to lower retail gasoline prices by CNY 525 per metric ton from June 5th.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: May 30 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215k, prior 215k
  8:30 am: May 23 Continuing Claims, est. 1780k, prior 1786k
• 8:30 am: Fed’s Barkin in Fireside Chat
• 10:00 am: Fed’s Bowman Testifies Before House Financial Services Committ
• 11:40 am: Fed’s Daly Appears on Bloomberg TV
• 1:00 pm: Fed’s Schmid Speaks in Fireside Chat
• 1:10 pm: Fed’s Daly at Bloomberg Technology Summit

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The geopolitical headlines have become slightly more positive this morning, with oil prices falling back after the US said that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire. That ceasefire is conditional on Hezbollah also stopping fighting, but in theory, the news helps to take out a key sticking point in the US-Iran talks that was holding up a deal. So that’s seen oil prices reverse a run of three consecutive gains, with Brent crude down -0.96% to $96.87/bbl. And given the news, the 10yr Treasury yield (-1.4bps) has also fallen back to 4.48%.

Nevertheless, even as the geopolitical news looks more positive, equities have taken a hit this morning after Broadcom’s forecast for AI chip revenue was beneath estimates, which pushed their share price down over -13% in overnight trading. Those concerns around AI have extended more broadly too, with S&P 500 futures down -0.37% this morning. And in Asia overnight, all the major indices have lost ground, including the Nikkei (-1.73%), the KOSPI (-1.17%), the Hang Seng (-1.39%), the CSI 300 (-0.58%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.43%). Moreover, there’s been a broader slide in risk assets, with Bitcoin at a 3-month low this morning of $64,593.

Before that, markets had already struggled yesterday, as growing doubt about a US-Iran peace deal pushed Brent crude (+1.89%) up for a third consecutive session, closing at $97.81/bbl. And with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked and no clear sign of a resolution, there were even mounting expectations about a potential Fed rate hike this year, with market pricing for that up to 81% by the close. So that pushed bond yields higher, with a fresh dose of momentum from another round of strong US data, which added to the rate hike speculation. So it was a tough day all round, with the S&P 500 (-0.74%) finally ending a run of 9 consecutive gains, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (+5.1bps) was back up to 4.49%.

In terms of the Middle East, events there were still dominating the market agenda, with few obvious signs that a peace deal was imminent. For instance, as we went to press yesterday, Bahrain said they’d intercepted three missiles and several drones, whilst Kuwait had to suspend air traffic briefly after an Iranian attack. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi posted that “Any hostile act will be met with an immediate, decisive response” and also said that “no tangible progress” had been made in talks with the US.

There was little clarity from Trump himself, who said the negotiations could complete over the weekend but could go on another two, three weeks. So tensions seemed to be ratcheting up again, and hopes for a durable peace deal continued to decline. Meanwhile, CNN reported yesterday that one of the key sticking points was monetary compensation for Iran. Otherwise, the US House of Representatives did vote against the Iran war in a 215-208 vote yesterday, after four Republicans joined with the Democrats. But in practice that won’t end the military conflict, as the Senate would also need to pass it, and Trump could issue a veto as well.

That backdrop meant that oil prices posted a fresh increase yesterday, with Brent crude up +1.89% to $97.81/bbl. Indeed, we can see from the Polymarket odds that there’s growing scepticism about a return to normality in the Strait of Hormuz. For instance, the probability of a return to normal traffic by the end of July was down to 34% yesterday, having been 39% the previous day. And it was clear investors were pricing the longer conflict scenarios as well, with the 6-month Brent crude future (+1.07%) up to $86.91/bbl.

With oil prices rising again, that led to a renewed bout of concerns around inflation on both sides of the Atlantic. For instance, the US 1yr inflation swap (+6.8bps) was back up to 3.18%, whilst the Euro 1yr inflation swap (+6.5bps) was up to 3.05%. So that led to a fresh round of pressure on sovereign bonds, with the 10yr Treasury yield (+5.2bps) up to 4.50%, whilst yields on 10yr bunds (+6.0bps), OATs (+7.7ps) and BTPs (+8.5bps) saw even bigger increases.

The rise in bond yields got even more momentum from another strong batch of US data, which added to expectations of a Fed rate hike this year. For example, the ISM services index rose by more than expected in May, up to 54.5 (vs. 53.8 expected). Moreover, we also had the ADP’s report of private payrolls, before the US jobs report tomorrow. That ADP release pointed to a robust labour market in May, with private payrolls up by a 16-month high of +122k (vs. +120k expected).

With that data in hand, the probability of a Fed rate hike by December was up to 81% at the close, up from 71% the previous day. And similarly in Europe, the number of ECB hikes priced by December was up to 68bps, up from 65bps the previous day. Meanwhile in Japan, markets have also priced in a growing chance of a rate hike, as BoJ Governor Ueda signalled in a speech yesterday that it may need to be considered. For instance, he said that if “upside risks to prices outweigh downside risks to economic activity, it will be necessary to thoroughly discuss the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate”.

That combination of negative geopolitical headlines and more hawkish rates pricing meant US equities finally stumbled after a long run of gains. So the S&P 500 (-0.74%) and the NASDAQ (-0.89%) both fell back after 9 consecutive moves higher. The declines were fairly broad, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 (-0.42%) also seeing a decent pull back. But it was the Magnificent 7 (-1.25%) that saw a particular underperformance, dragging US equities more broadly, even as the Philly Semiconductor index (+1.39%) reached another record high.

Over in Europe, there were more broad-based equity declines, with the STOXX 600 (-0.66%) falling back, alongside losses for the DAX (-1.31%), the CAC 40 (-0.71%) and the FTSE MIB (-1.07%). But as in the US, the latest data also pointed in a slightly better direction than expected. So the final composite PMI for the Euro Area was revised up a point from the flash reading to 48.5. Admittedly, that was still beneath the 50-mark separating expansion from contraction, but it suggested the economy wasn’t deteriorating as rapidly as previously thought given the energy shock. Peter Sidorov published his latest global PMI monitor yesterday, where the data shows the global economy adapting to the energy shock, albeit with some signs of rising employment risks.

Looking at the day ahead now, data releases include the May construction PMIs for Germany and the UK, along with Euro Area retail sales for April, and the US weekly initial jobless claims. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, BoE Governor Bailey, and the Fed’s Barkin, Bowman and Daly.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 08:23

Five Below Plunges After Earnings Beat, Warns Consumer Boost From Tax Refunds Is Ending

Five Below's core customer base is tweens, teens, and value-conscious households. That makes management's warning on Wednesday's earnings call particularly notable: the retailer is directly exposed to trends in low-end discretionary spending.

"We're looking at the world that our customers are living in: with rising fuel costs, with very sticky inflation, with a somewhat—soft labor market. And we think a piece of that pain that they are feeling wasn't felt in the first quarter purely because of tax proceeds," CFO Daniel Sullivan told analysts during an earnings call.

"We remain cautious with respect to the macro environment, consumer sentiment and buying behaviors," Sullivan added.

Shares of Five Below plunged 10% in premarket trading after the discount retailer issued a dismal outlook for the consumer this summer, despite beating first-quarter earnings expectations and raising full-year profit guidance.

Same-store sales surged nearly 23%, exceeding the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of 17.8%, which was mostly helped by viral demand for a "squishy dumpling" toy.

Snapshot of the first quarter results (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Net sales $1.29 billion, +32% y/y, estimate $1.22 billion

• Adjusted EPS $2.22, estimate $1.75

• EPS $2.21 vs. 75c y/y

• Comparable sales +22.7%, estimate +17.8%

• Total stores 1,970, estimate 1,967

• Net new stores opened 49, estimate 45.94

Five Below also raised its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $8.65 to $9.05 from $7.74 to $8.25. The Bloomberg Consensus estimate was $8.30. It kept its second-half outlook unchanged, citing deteriorating consumer sentiment amid a very challenging macroeconomic environment as the tax-refund sugar high fades.

Snapshot of full-year forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Sees net sales $5.40 billion to $5.48 billion, saw $5.20 billion to $5.30 billion, estimate $5.37 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Sees adjusted EPS $8.65 to $9.05, saw $7.74 to $8.25, estimate $8.30

• Sees EPS $8.62 to $9.02, saw $7.69 to $8.20

• Sees comparable sales +6% to +8%, estimate +5.95%

• Sees net income $480 million to $502 million, saw $429 million to $457 million, estimates $455.3 million

Five Below's concerns about consumers this summer come as working-class families face a cash crunch in the coming months, with Trump-era tax refund tailwinds fading and Iran-related fuel shocks squeezing budgets.

Tax refunds averaging nearly $3,500 have largely helped keep spending resilient, with Walmart, Target, and Lowe's citing refund-driven support in recent earnings calls.

But some retailers warn that the tax refund boost is only temporary. Target said the tax refund benefit will fade in the back half of the year, while Advance Auto Parts expects sales to slow as the refund tailwind disappears.

Low-cost retailers such as Dollar General and Dollar Tree have reported stronger quarterly earnings as they see trading down from wealthier households seeking discounted items.

"They're literally running out of money at the end of the month," Kraft Heinz CEO Steve Cahillane said in a recent interview with the WSJ. "We're seeing negative cash flows in the lower-income brackets where they're dipping into savings."

Earlier this month, we showed that personal spending growth far outpaced personal income.

... the personal savings rate has collapsed to a 3-year low.

Read UBS analyst Mark Paski's note from last week, which warned about a potential "fiscal cliff" for consumers in the second half of 2026, as excess cash buffers from refunds begin to fade.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 07:45

Constellation's Three Mile Island Nuclear Restart Gets Boost With FERC Waiver

By Ethan Howland of UtilityDive

Constellation Energy’s plans to restart the Crane nuclear power plant - formerly, and better known as Three Mile Island Unit 1 - were boosted Monday when the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved a waiver for the company from PJM Interconnection rules. FERC approved Constellation’s waiver request over the objections of PJM’s independent market monitor.

Under the decision, Constellation will be able to transfer 760 MW of Capacity Interconnection Rights, or CIRs, from its Eddystone power plant near Philadelphia to the Crane unit. The transfer will increase the amount of electricity the nuclear unit can deliver to the grid.

Constellation Energy’s Three Mile Island nuclear power plant near Middletown, Pa. The company’s plans to restart the plant’s Unit 1 were boosted when the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved a waiver for the company from PJM Interconnection rules on June 1, 2026.

Constellation planned to retire two Eddystone units on May 31, 2025, but the Department of Energy has ordered the company to them to keep running under what the DOE has described as an emergency energy shortage.

Under the DOE’s orders, the Eddystone units are not considered capacity resources, making their CIRs free to be transferred, according to Baltimore-based Constellation.

Constellation’s $1.6 billion plan to restart the 835-MW Crane nuclear unit hit a snag when PJM determined that transmission upgrades were needed to safely deliver all the unit’s power to the grid.

Those upgrades — including 765-kV and 500-kV projects — aren’t expected to be finished until December 2030 and could be delayed even longer, preventing full deliveries from the nuclear unit, which could restart in the second half of 2027, Constellation said in its March 31 waiver request at FERC.

Constellation’s request met FERC’s criteria for granting waivers, including that it solves a concrete problem, according to the agency.

“The requested waiver will allow for the transfer of CIRs between the Eddystone units and Crane, which may reduce or eliminate the number of Contingent Facilities for Crane and thereby potentially increase Crane’s interim deliverability and enable Crane to be fully operational before December 31, 2030,” FERC said.

Also, granting the waiver will not have undesirable consequences, such as harming third parties, FERC said.

“Rather, the requested waiver will provide a more efficient use of CIRs due to the Eddystone units’ current inability to use their CIRs as a result of DOE orders requiring them to operate as energy-only resources,” FERC said.

Constellation has a 20-year deal to sell all the energy, capacity and clean energy attributes from the nuclear unit to Microsoft for data centers across PJM’s Mid-Atlantic and Midwest footprint.

In its waiver request, Constellation said that reaching full deliverability status was especially important for the Crane unit. If run for extended periods below their rated power output, the equipment in nuclear units face risk of elevated vibration and wear, which can pose reliability problems, according to the independent power producer.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 07:20

My morning Montreal reads:

• Shorting SpaceX? Jefferies Becomes Go-To Bank After IPO Miss:  It’s the kind of look that ambitious investment bankers usually strive to avoid: When SpaceX named the roughly two dozen firms handling its IPO, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. was conspicuously absent. But behind the scenes, bearish investors and some of Jefferies’ own bosses see that as a unique opportunity. (Bloomberg)

• Who Let the Professors Out? Inside CFM: The $27bn quant on Paris’ Left Bank: Stock markets are surging, and momentum is rampant. It made me think of CFM wizard Jean-Philippe Bouchaud who believes that it is fund flows that drives markets and not fundamentals. (Rupak’s Substack) see also Transcript: Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Founder/Chief Scientist, Capital Fund Management co‑founder, chair & head of research/chief scientist atCapital Fund Management (CFM). The $20 billion firm started in 1991 specializing in managed futures and now runs futures and multi-strategy programs. He began his career in theoretical physics, was awarded the IBM Young Scientist Prize (1990) and the C.N.R.S. Silver Medal (1996), and has published over 300 scientific papers and several books in physics and finance. (The Big Picture)

• The triumph of capital: It’s been a great generation to have started out rich. If you compare the United States to the famously high-tax Nordic countries, the major difference is not in the top statutory income tax rates. The top American combined state and local tax rate is generally a little higher than it is in Norway and a little lower than in Denmark and Sweden. New York and California, where a large share of our billionaires live, have unusually high top income tax rates, so the richest people are paying Nordic-level marginal rates. (Slow Boring)

• Sorry Marc, it — investment grade private credit — is just not that big: The FT, gently, on Marc Rowan, Apollo’s CEO,  latest “this is the biggest thing in history” essay — and the multiple times he has said exactly that before. The kindest version of the takedown. (Financial Times)

• Gmail Thinks I’m Stupid, So I Left: A nicely irritated post on Gmail’s creeping infantilization — AI summarizing nothing, hiding addresses, “smart compose” doing the opposite. The user case for going Fastmail/Proton in one sitting. (Modded Bear)

• High Density Living, 2000 Years Ago: Inside the Roman Apartment Building: Ancient Rome had six-story walk-ups, noise complaints, and absentee landlords. The more things change. A tombstone outside Rome bears “The Tenant’s Lament”—proof that housing has always been a problem. (Common Edge)

• This $50,000 Safety Fix Is Dividing the Aviation Industry and Washington: Federal safety officials and lawmakers have been at odds over mandating systems enabling pilots to see nearby aircraft (Wall Street Journal)

• Iran Atomic Risk Seen Higher Than Before Trump Attacks Began. The risk that Iran is covertly pursuing nuclear weapons is higher today than before the US and Israel launched their first military attacks on the Islamic Republic a year ago, according to western officials. The International Atomic Energy Agency has warned member countries about new nuclear proliferation dangers posed by Iran’s large inventory of near-bomb-grade uranium, which is no longer subject to weekly IAEA inspection. (Bloomberg free)

• Cancel Culture at CBS News: The Bulwark on the Pelley/Weiss/Bilton triangle and what it tells you about who the new CBS News editorial line is for. The “cancel culture” framing applied where the people doing the cancelling actually are. (The Bulwark) see also Scott Pelley Fires Back After “60 Minutes” Ouster: “The Collapse of Values at the Top Has Become Untenable”: Variety carrying Pelley’s on-the-record statement after the firing — the kind of clean, scorched-earth quote that doesn’t happen at CBS News by accident. (Variety)  see also When “60 Minutes” is in Trouble, We are All in Trouble: Jim Acosta on what the Pelley firing means for the rest of the press corps. Read alongside Margaret Sullivan’s “priced in” piece — same diagnosis, fresh data point. (Jim Acosta)

• He Was the Knicks Owner Who Could Do Nothing Right. Now James Dolan Can’t Miss.: WSJ on the strangest sports-business arc of the decade — Dolan, of all people, with a Finals team and a cleaner front office than half the league. Even Knicks fans aren’t sure what to do with this. (Wall Street Journal)

Video of the day: What It’s Like to Be a Billionaire’s Family Member

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Chris Davis, Chairman and Portfolio Manager of Davis Funds. The firm oversees $20 billion in client assets, with Davis (and colleagues) co-investing $2 billion in their own mineus alongside shareholders. Davis was named Morningstar’s Portfolio Manager of the Year; he also sits on the boards of Berkshire Hathaway and Coca-Cola.

 

The Lowest Consumer Sentiment EVER

Source: A Wealth of Common Sense

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

EU Could Lose 1.3 Million Jobs Due To Energy Price Surge From Iran War

Up to 1.3 million jobs across the EU are at risk because of the ongoing war in the Middle East, European Commissioner for jobs Roxana Mînzatu said on Wednesday.

"Due to the war in the Middle East, up to 1.3 million jobs are at risk, particularly in energy-intensive industries," Mînzatu said at a press conference.

"Let me also underline that increased energy costs will have a particular negative impact on lower-income households in Europe, which is why we recommend that all member states take targeted measures so that they can support vulnerable groups," the Commissioner added.

According to the report, the EU automotive sector could face ​the biggest layoffs of up to 600,000. Construction, metals, chemicals, transport could lose 56,000 jobs. Some 85,000 jobs in battery projects could be at risk ​and 58,852 ​jobs ⁠in solar manufacturing. Another 4,500 jobs could go in the ​steel sector because of low-carbon ​measures.

In a stagflationary double whammy, Low-income ⁠households could spend an additional 1.4% of income on transport fuel.

As Euronews reports, the warning came during the presentation of the 2026 Spring Semester Package, a bi-annual publication by the EU executive that provides guidance to the 27 member states on the bloc's economic priorities.

The conflict has already had tangible effects on the European economy, with energy prices surging as a result. According to the latest European economic forecasts published in May, the war has slowed European growth while pushing inflation higher. Yesterday we learned that Euro Area inflation topped 3% for the first time since 2023, cementing an ECB rate hike next week.

Economic data on growth and inflation vary sharply across the EU, a disparity the Commission considers a threat to competitiveness.
Key priorities

The package dedicates significant space to employment, focusing on the promotion of quality jobs and how EU countries can tackle persistent shortages of skilled workers in strategically important sectors.

"Improving educational outcomes and better aligning people's skills with labor market needs remain key priorities, also to address labour and skills shortages which are particularly acute in strategic sectors such as cybersecurity, quantum, artificial intelligence and semiconductors," the Semester Package states.

At the press conference, Mînzatu said that 77% of European companies report that skill shortages remain a significant barrier to investment. She identified poor working conditions as the main driver of those shortages.

"We cannot attract talent, we cannot reduce shortages, we cannot improve people's earnings without making sure we have good working conditions," the Commissioner said.

Since the beginning of this mandate, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has made competitiveness one of the Commission's highest priorities as geopolitical uncertainties mount.

The latest Semester Package reflects this, focusing on how Europe can strengthen its position on the global stage.

In particular, the bloc wants to reduce economic barriers in the single market, create a more business-friendly environment for companies and capital, and minimise strategic dependencies – especially on China and the US.

To that end, the Commission is pushing member states towards a more robust industrial policy, greater investment in capital markets, and a simplification agenda that would, among other things, reduce administrative burdens both in the private and public sector.

In parallel, the Commission is working to accelerate economic reforms at the EU level, though progress relies heavily on the willingness of member states to act – a longstanding coordination challenge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 02:45

Peter Schiff: Printing Money Is Not the Cure for Cononavirus



In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff talked about coronavirus and the impact that it is having on the markets. Earlier this month, Peter said he thought the virus was just an excuse for stock market woes. At the time he believed the market was poised to fall anyway. But as it turns out, coronavirus has actually helped the US stock market because it has led central banks to pump even more liquidity into the world financial system. All this means more liquidity — central banks easing. In fact, that is exactly what has already happened, except the new easing is taking place, for now, outside the United States, particularly in China.” Although the new money is primarily being created in China, it is flowing into dollars — the dollar index is up — and into US stocks. Last week, US stock markets once again made all-time record highs. In fact, I think but for the coronavirus, the US stock market would still be selling off. But because of the central bank stimulus that has been the result of fears over the coronavirus, that actually benefitted not only the US dollar, but the US stock market.” In the midst of all this, Peter raises a really good question. The primary economic concern is that coronavirus will slow down output and ultimately stunt economic growth. Practically speaking, the world would produce less stuff. If the virus continues to spread, there would be fewer goods and services produced in a market that is hunkered down. Why would the Federal Reserve respond, or why would any central bank respond to that by printing money? How does printing more money solve that problem? It doesn’t. In fact, it actually exacerbates it. But you know, everybody looks at central bankers as if they’ve got the solution to every problem. They don’t. They don’t have the magic wand. They just have a printing press. And all that creates is inflation.” Sometimes the illusion inflation creates can look like a magic wand. Printing money can paper over problems. But none of this is going to fundamentally fix the economy. In fact, if central bankers were really going to do the right thing, the appropriate response would be to drain liquidity from the markets, not supply even more.” Peter explained how the Fed was originally intended to create an “elastic” money supply that would expand or contract along with economic output. Today, the money supply only goes in one direction — that’s up. The economy is strong, print money. The economy is weak, print even more money.” Of course, the asset that’s doing the best right now is gold. The yellow metal pushed above $1,600 yesterday. Gold is up 5.5% on the year in dollar terms and has set record highs in other currencies. Because gold is rising even in an environment where the dollar is strengthening against other fiat currencies, that shows you that there is an underlying weakness in the dollar that is right now not being reflected in the Forex markets, but is being reflected in the gold markets. Because after all, why are people buying gold more aggressively than they’re buying dollars or more aggressively than they’re buying US Treasuries? Because they know that things are not as good for the dollar or the US economy as everybody likes to believe. So, more people are seeking out refuge in a better safe-haven and that is gold.” Peter also talked about the debate between Trump and Obama over who gets credit for the booming economy – which of course, is not booming.

We are living in crazy times. I have a hard time believing that most of the general public is not awake, but in reality, they are. We've never seen anything like this; I mean not even under Obama during the worst part of the Great Recession." Now the Fed is desperately trying to keep interest rates from rising. The problem is that it's a much bigger debt bubble this time around , and the Fed is going to have to blow a lot more air into it to keep it inflated. The difference is this time it's not going to work." It looks like the Fed did another $104.15 billion of Not Q.E. in a single day. The Fed claims it's only temporary. But that is precisely what Bernanke claimed when the Fed started QE1. Milton Freedman once said, "Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program." The same applies to Q.E., or whatever the Fed wants to pretend it's doing. Except this is not QE4, according to Powell. Right. Pumping so much money out, and they are accusing China of currency manipulation ? Wow! Seriously! Amazing! Dump the U.S. dollar while you still have a chance. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. And it is even worse than that, In addition to the $104.15 billion of "Not Q.E." this past Thursday; the FED added another $56.65 billion in liquidity to financial markets the next day on Friday. That's $160.8 billion in two days!!!! in just 48 hours. That is more than 2 TIMES the highest amount the FED has ever injected on a monthly basis under a Q.E. program (which was $80 billion per month) Since this isn't QE....it will be really scary on what they are going to call Q.E. Will it twice, three times, four times, five times what this injection per month ! It is going to be explosive since it takes about 60 to 90 days for prices to react to this, January should see significant inflation as prices soak up the excess liquidity. The question is, where will the inflation occur first . The spike in the repo rate might have a technical explanation: a misjudgment was made in the Fed's money market operations. Even so, two conclusions can be drawn: managing the money markets is becoming harder, and from now on, banks will be studying each other's creditworthiness to a greater degree than before. Those people, who struggle with the minutiae of money markets, and that includes most professionals, should focus on the causes and not the symptoms. Financial markets have recovered from each downturn since 1980 because interest rates have been cut to new lows. Post-2008, they were cut to near zero or below zero in all major economies. In response to a new financial crisis, they cannot go any lower. Central banks will look for new ways to replicate or broaden Q.E. (At some point, governments will simply see repression as an easier option). Then there is the problem of 'risk-free' assets becoming risky assets. Financial markets assume that the probability of major governments such as the U.S. or U.K. defaulting is zero. These governments are entering the next downturn with debt roughly twice the levels proportionate to GDP that was seen in 2008. The belief that the policy worked was completely predicated on the fact that it was temporary and that it was reversible, that the Fed was going to be able to normalize interest rates and shrink its balance sheet back down to pre-crisis levels. Well, when the balance sheet is five-trillion, six-trillion, seven-trillion when we're back at zero, when we're back in a recession, nobody is going to believe it is temporary. Nobody is going to believe that the Fed has this under control, that they can reverse this policy. And the dollar is going to crash. And when the dollar crashes, it's going to take the bond market with it, and we're going to have stagflation. We're going to have a deep recession with rising interest rates, and this whole thing is going to come imploding down. everything is temporary with the fed including remaining off the gold standard temporary in the Fed's eyes could mean at least 50 years This liquidity problem is a signal that trading desks are loaded up on inventory and can't get rid of it. Repo is done out of a need for cash. If you own all of your securities (i.e., a long-only, no leverage mutual fund) you have no need to "repo" your securities - you're earning interest every night so why would you want to 'repo' your securities where you are paying interest for that overnight loan (securities lending is another animal). So, it is those that 'lever-up' and need the cash for settlement purposes on securities they've bought with borrowed money that needs to utilize the repo desk. With this in mind, as we continue to see this need to obtain cash (again, needed to settle other securities purchases), it shows these firms don't have the capital to add more inventory to, what appears to be, a bloated inventory. Now comes the fun part: the Treasury is about to auction 3's, 10's, and 30-year bonds. If I am correct (again, I could be wrong), the Fed realizes securities firms don't have the shelf space to take down a good portion of these auctions. If there isn't enough retail/institutional demand, it will lead to not only a crappy sale but major concerns to the street that there is now no backstop, at all, to any sell-off. At which point, everyone will want to be the first one through the door and sell immediately, but to whom? If there isn't enough liquidity in the repo market to finance their positions, the firms would be unable to increase their inventory. We all saw repo shut down on the 2008 crisis. Wall St runs on money. . OVERNIGHT money. They lever up to inventory securities for trading. If they can't get overnight money, they can't purchase securities. And if they can't unload what they have, it means the buy-side isn't taking on more either. Accounts settle overnight. This includes things like payrolls and bill pay settlements. If a bank doesn't have enough cash to payout what its customers need to pay out, it borrows. At least one and probably more than one banks are insolvent. That's what's going on. First, it can't be one or two banks that are short. They'd simply call around until they found someone to lend. But they did that, and even at markedly elevated rates, still, NO ONE would lend them the money. That tells me that it's not a problem of a couple of borrowers, it's a problem of no lenders. And that means that there's no bank in the world left with any real liquidity. They are ALL maxed out. But as bad as that is, and that alone could be catastrophic, what it really signals is even worse. The lending rates are just the flip side of the coin of the value of the assets lent against. If the rates go up, the value goes down. And with rates spiking to 10%, how far does the value fall? Enormously! And if banks had to actually mark down the value of the assets to reflect 10% interest rates, then my god, every bank in the world is insolvent overnight. Everyone's capital ratios are in the toilet, and they'd have to liquidate. We're talking about the simultaneous insolvency of every bank on the planet. Bank runs. No money in ATMs, Branches closed. Safe deposit boxes confiscated. The whole nine yards, It's actually here. The scenario has tended to guide toward for years and years is actually happening RIGHT NOW! And people are still trying to say it's under control. Every bank in the world is currently insolvent. The only thing keeping it going is printing billions of dollars every day. Financial Armageddon isn't some far off future risk. It's here. Prepare accordingly. This fiat system has reached the end of the line, and it's not correct that fiat currencies fail by design. The problem is corruption and manipulation. It is corruption and cheating that erodes trust and faith until the entire system becomes a gigantic fraud. Banks and governments everywhere ARE the problem and simply have to be removed. They have lost all trust and respect, and all they have left is war and mayhem. As long as we continue to have a majority of braindead asleep imbeciles following orders from these psychopaths, nothing will change. Fiat currency is not just thievery. Fiat currency is SLAVERY. Ultimately the most harmful effect of using debt of undefined value as money (i.e., fiat currencies) is the de facto legalization of a caste system based on voluntary slavery. The bankers have a charter, or the legal *right*, to create money out of nothing. You, you don't. Therefore you and the bankers do not have the same standing before the law. The law of the land says that you will go to jail if you do the same thing (creating money out of thin air) that the banker does in full legality. You and the banker are not equal before the law. ALL the countries of the world; Islamic or secular, Jewish or Arab, democracy or dictatorship; all of them place the bankers ABOVE you. And all of you accept that only whining about fiat money going down in exchange value over time (price inflation which is not the same as monetary inflation). Actually, price inflation itself is mainly due to the greed and stupidity of the bankers who could keep fiat money's exchange value reasonably stable, only if they wanted to. Witness the crash of silver and gold prices which the bankers of the world; Russian, American, Chinese, Jewish, Indian, Arab, all of them collaborated to engineer through the suppression and stagnation of precious metals' prices to levels around the metals' production costs, or what it costs to dig gold and silver out of the ground. The bankers of the world could also collaborate to keep nominal prices steady (as they do in the case of the suppression of precious metals prices). After all, the ability to create fiat money and force its usage is a far more excellent source of power and wealth than that which is afforded simply by stealing it through inflation. The bankers' greed and stupidity blind them to this fact. They want it all, and they want it now. In conclusion, The bankers can create money out of nothing and buy your goods and services with this worthless fiat money, effectively for free. You, you can't. You, you have to lead miserable existences for the most of you and WORK in order to obtain that effectively nonexistent, worthless credit money (whose purchasing/exchange value is not even DEFINED thus rendering all contracts based on the null and void!) that the banker effortlessly creates out of thin air with a few strokes of the computer keyboard, and which he doesn't even bother to print on paper anymore, electing to keep it in its pure quantum uncertain form instead, as electrons whizzing about inside computer chips which will become mute and turn silent refusing to tell you how many fiat dollars or euros there are in which account, in the absence of electricity. No electricity, no fiat, nor crypto money. It would appear that trust is deteriorating as it did when Lehman blew up . Something really big happened that set off this chain reaction in the repo markets. Whatever that something is, we aren't be informed. They're trying to cover it up, paper it over with conjured cash injections, play it cool in front of the cameras while sweating profusely under the 5 thousands dollar suits. I'm guessing that the final high-speed plunge into global economic collapse has begun. All we see here is the ripples and whitewater churning the surface, but beneath the surface, there is an enormous beast thrashing desperately in its death throws. Now is probably the time to start tying up loose ends with the long-running prep projects, just saying. In other words, prepare accordingly, and Get your money out of the banks. I don't care if you don't believe me about Bitcoin. Get your money out of the banks. Don't keep any more money in a bank than you need to pay your bills and can afford to lose.











The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more













The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

The FBI released a summary of its file from the Hillary Clinton email investigation on Friday, showing details of Clinton's explanation of her use of a private email server to handle classified communications. The release comes nearly two months after FBI Director James Comey announced that although Clinton's handling of classified information was "extremely careless," it did not rise to the level of a prosecutable offense. Attorney General Loretta Lynch announced the next day that she would not pursue charges in the matter. "We are making these materials available to the public in the interest of transparency and in response to numerous Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests," the FBI noted in a statement sent to reporters with links to the documents. The documents include notes from Clinton's July 2 interview with agents, as well as a "factual summary of the FBI's investigation into this matter," according to the FBI release. Throughout her interview with agents, Clinton repeatedly said she relied on the career professionals she worked with to handle classified information correctly. The agents asked about a series of specific emails, and in each case Clinton said she wasn't worried about the particular material being discussed on a nonclassified channel.