The Stagflation Narrative: What Doomers Get Wrong

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The stagflation narrative dominating financial social media isn’t completely wrong. That’s what makes it so dangerous. After more than 30 years of managing client portfolios through actual inflationary cycles, not watching them on YouTube, I’ve learned that the most damaging investment advice isn’t built on outright lies. It’s built on partial truths, stretched past the point where the data still holds.

If you haven’t read Commodity Supercycle: The Enemy Of The Bull Thesis (Part 1), it is an important primer to today’s discussion.

Let’s dig in.

The doomers have legitimate inputs. Supply chains are genuinely under pressure, and the dollar currently faces real structural headwinds. Central banks have been buying gold at a historic pace. Equity valuations in certain segments are stretched, and every one of those observations is defensible. However, the leap from those observations to “sell everything, go all-in on commodities, bonds are dead forever, the great reset is here,” is where the analysis ends and the storytelling begins.

I want to do two things here. First, I’ll score the stagflation narrative claim-by-claim. We will give credit where it’s earned and expose where the logic collapses. I’ll lay out what a sound investment framework actually looks like when the data, not the narrative, drives the decision. Moreover, why the boom-bust nature of commodity markets and the AI-driven capex cycle both fundamentally change where allocations belong.

The Stagflation Narrative Spreading Across Social Media

Spend an hour on X, and you’ll encounter some version of the same script.

• The Federal Reserve has destroyed the currency.

• The 1970s are back, only worse.

• Commodities are going to surge for the next decade.

• Gold is the only real money.

• Bonds are a guaranteed way to lose purchasing power.

• Anyone still holding a diversified portfolio is either naive or not paying attention.

The 1970s comparison is the narrative’s analytical spine. Commodity prices surged for the better part of a decade while equities went nowhere in real terms. Gold went from $35 an ounce to over $800, and the people who held hard assets looked prescient for years. It’s a compelling story, with the added appeal of casting the narrator as the maverick who sees what the establishment refuses to acknowledge.

Here’s the problem.

The 1970s worked the way they did because of structural economic conditions that no longer exist. Both the boom-bust nature of commodity cycles and the emergence of the AI-driven capex boom create dynamics that the doomer framework fails to incorporate.

Before I take this apart, I want to be clear about something. The inputs behind the stagflation narrative deserve serious consideration. As such, dismissing them entirely would be just as intellectually sloppy as swallowing them whole.

As I laid out in Part 1 of this series, supply inelasticity is real. More than a decade of ESG-driven capital discipline, underinvestment in exploration, and production curtailment has left several commodity markets unable to respond quickly when demand rises. That constraint doesn’t vanish because we want it to. It gives the commodity cycle real legs, supporting the bull thesis for select commodities over a meaningful but finite window.

The dollar does face genuine headwinds. Structural fiscal deficits, a Federal Reserve with a long track record of accommodation, and geopolitical pressure on the reserve currency system are all real concerns. JPMorgan projects gold at $5,000 per ounce in 2026, as central bank accumulation runs at roughly 585 tonnes per quarter. There are also pockets of equity valuations that are stretched enough to carry real multiple-compression risk if earnings disappoint.

So the inputs are legitimate. Therefore, there is a version of the commodity trade, sized correctly and timed with discipline, that makes sense right now. The doomer narrative isn’t wrong about the forces in play. It’s wrong about what those forces mean, how long they last, and how to construct a portfolio around them.

Where the Narrative Falls Apart

The entire doomer framework rests on one foundational assumption: the 1970s stagflation cycle will repeat itself. Therefore, a 1970s portfolio, heavy on commodities, short on bonds, light on equities, will produce 1970s results. Unfortunately, that assumption doesn’t survive contact with the structural differences between the two economies.

The U.S. economy in the 1970s was built on manufacturing, which accounted for roughly 25% to 28% of GDP. Most crucially, it had a large unionized workforce with cost-of-living clauses written directly into labor contracts. When commodity prices rose, wages rose automatically. In other words, rising costs triggered wage increases, which sustained purchasing power, which kept spending alive even as prices climbed. That feedback loop extended the cycle for years.

The U.S. economy today is roughly 70% to 75% services, and manufacturing accounts for approximately 11% of GDP. The COLA-adjusted workforce is gone. Therefore, when commodity prices rise today, the increase doesn’t trigger wage catch-up. Instead, it functions as a direct tax on purchasing power, and consumers absorb it immediately. What took years to produce meaningful demand destruction in the 1970s now shows up in six to twelve months.

“The 1970s cycle ran on wage indexing. Without it, commodity inflation becomes a demand tax, and demand destruction arrives fast. That is the analytical flaw at the core of the doomer stagflation narrative.”

The Inflation Sequence

The doomer version of the stagflation narrative treats the inflation phase as permanent. It isn’t. It’s a phase inside a sequence, and the sequence has a specific ending that the all-in commodity thesis is completely unprepared for.

1. Commodity prices rise. Input costs surge.

2. Consumers carrying record debt loads pull back.

3. Business investment contracts.

4. Growth slows.

5. The Fed pivots.

6. Rate cuts follow.

7. Bond prices rise.

In other words, the same event that terminates the commodity rally launches the bond recovery.

We saw this exact sequence in compressed form between 2022 and 2024. Commodities surged amid the Russia-Ukraine shock and pandemic-related supply chain disruptions. Bonds had their worst calendar year in modern history. The doomers called it permanent. Then growth wobbled, the Fed pivoted, and by 2024 intermediate Treasuries had recovered sharply while commodity prices corrected from their peaks. The people who abandoned bonds entirely after 2022 missed a significant rally and held concentrated commodity exposure through the drawdown.

The doomer stagflation narrative is built to profit from Phases 1 and 2, but it has no plan, framework, or exit discipline for Phases 3 through 6. That is where the damage happens.

The Gold Logic and the Bond Mistake

Gold deserves a real discussion, because this is where the doomer stagflation narrative contains its most glaring internal contradiction. Own gold, the argument goes, because the dollar is collapsing and you need to escape a failing monetary system.

Gold is priced in dollars and traded in dollar-denominated markets. Its entire value proposition is measured against the purchasing power of the US dollar. When someone argues that the dollar is collapsing and the solution is a dollar-denominated asset, the argument refutes itself. Central banks buying gold aren’t abandoning the monetary system; they’re diversifying their reserve compositions within it. The Chinese People’s Bank is reducing its concentration in dollar-denominated Treasuries, specifically, but that is a rotation within the system, not an escape from it.

Gold earns a real place in a sound portfolio as a hedge against policy error, inflation (which is what the debasement argument refers to), and geopolitical stress. A 5% weighting of a portfolio allocated to gold, sized appropriately for its volatility, is a defensible position backed by institutional demand data. 50% of a portfolio concentrated in gold because the financial system is “about to collapse” is speculation with an apocalyptic narrative.

The bond mistake is where the most retail damage has been done. The doomers drew a permanent conclusion from 2022’s historically bad bond year. What they missed is that the inflation phase that crushed bonds in 2022 is the same mechanism that eventually forces the Fed to cut rates, which drives bond prices higher. Walking away after the loss and missing the recovery is the most expensive way to be partially right.

I’ve been doing this long enough to know that the most dangerous market narratives are the ones that are right about enough to feel credible all the way through. The stagflation narrative qualifies. Here is every major doomer claim, scored against what the data actually shows.

High Prices Cure High Prices

There’s a mechanism the doomer stagflation narrative never seriously models, and it’s the most reliable force in commodity markets: high prices cure high prices. When commodity prices rise far enough, they do three things simultaneously.

• They incentivize new supply investment

• Activate marginal producers who couldn’t profitably operate at lower price levels (increasing supply)

• And they accelerate demand substitution as consumers and businesses find alternatives.

The ESG and underinvestment thesis that Part 1 establishes is real and important, as it delays the supply response and extends the cycle beyond what a typical demand shock would produce. But it doesn’t eliminate the supply response. It sets the clock to a longer timer. The critical insight for portfolio construction is that the timer runs at different speeds for different commodities, and that determines how much of each you should own and how tightly you need to manage the exit.

The 2011 oil market is the canonical example, as West Texas Intermediate Crude traded around $100 per barrel for three consecutive years. During that stretch, the price level didn’t feel unsustainable to the doomers of that era, either, and peak oil narratives were everywhere. Then, oil producers, directly incentivized by those high prices, flooded the market with supply. By early 2016, WTI was trading at $26. The doomers who held concentrated energy positions through that collapse, because the “structural case was intact,” experienced the full arithmetic of boom-bust without a framework for managing it.

CONSISTENCY WITH PART 1  The ESG and underinvestment constraints that Part 1 identifies extend the supply response timeline, but they don’t eliminate it. Gold has the longest clock. Energy has the shortest. That difference in supply response curves should directly determine relative position sizes and exit discipline.

Investment Strategy For Today’s Environment

The doomer stagflation narrative misses a second major dynamic entirely: the AI-driven capital expenditure cycle running through the U.S. economy creates a domestic earnings multiplier that didn’t exist in prior stagflation episodes. Microsoft, Oracle, Google, Amazon, and Meta alone are spending hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure that will approach $1.1 trillion by 2027. That capital flows directly into semiconductors, power infrastructure, and data center supply chains, which in turn creates a domestic growth differential with no comparable international analog.

That “multiplier effect” is critical to this story as discussed previously in “The Deficit Narrative May Find Its Cure In AI.”

The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) estimates that every $1 billion in infrastructure investment creates 13,000 jobs and adds $3 billion to GDP over a decade. Therefore, if the U.S. invests $1.8 trillion in AI infrastructure by 2030—plausible given the $500 billion energy need, $300 billion for data centers (150 new centers at $2 billion each), and $200 billion for chip production—GDP could rise by $5 trillion over 10 years, or roughly $300 billion annually. However, that $1.8 trillion is only the beginning. McKinsey & Company expects spending to reach $6 trillion by 2030, just 5 years from now, equating to $18 trillion in economic growth.

That effect was already evident in the Q1-2026 GDP report, where nearly 75% of the 2% annualized growth rate was attributable to business investment in data centers. Currently, the U.S. is projected to grow at roughly 1.8% to 2% in 2026, while Europe struggles to hold 0.5% to 0.8%, and China manages a structural property and debt overhang. That earnings growth differential is real and durable throughout the buildout. The previous case for rotating toward international equities on valuation grounds has also weakened considerably. While European equities ran hard in 2024 and Indian equities now trade at multiples rivaling those of U.S. mid-caps, the broad international valuation discount has compressed.

That said, the AI capex argument carries two important constraints.

• First, the earnings are highly concentrated in roughly 8 to 12 companies. The rest of the S&P 500 still faces the same multiple compression risk in a stagflationary environment described in the article. Therefore, owning the broad index is not the same trade as owning the direct beneficiaries.
• Second, the capex cycle carries borrowed-demand risk, as these companies pull years of infrastructure investment into a compressed window. When capex growth plateaus, the GDP contribution reverses. The 1990s telecom buildout produced genuine earnings growth in infrastructure, yet ended in a brutal equity cycle when spending decelerated.

The framework that holds together across all of these dynamics, the commodity boom-bust cycle, the structural compression of demand destruction, the AI capex differential, and the bond recovery sequence, requires four separate allocation legs, each sized for its own cycle duration and exit trigger.

THE REVISED FRAMEWORK  The doomer stagflation narrative gets the commodity direction right for the first leg and wrong about the duration, the differentiation by commodity, the bond thesis, and the domestic equity landscape transformed by the AI capex cycle. Own what the data supports. Exit on the supply response clock, not the narrative.

Conclusion

Fear is a durable marketing strategy. The stagflation narrative will keep finding new audiences because it wraps legitimate macro concerns inside an emotionally satisfying story, a villain, a hero, and a clear trade. The people selling it know that partial truths are more persuasive than outright falsehoods. They also know that by the time the cycle turns and the narrative fails, their followers will attribute the losses to bad luck rather than bad analysis.

I’ve watched this play out repeatedly in commodity markets, from the commodity supercycle of 2007 to 2009 to the metals boom of the early 2000s to the oil market in 2011 to 2014. Every time, the same pattern: a legitimate supply constraint, a genuine price move, a narrative that extrapolated the trend into permanence, and then the eventual supply response that high prices had been quietly incentivizing all along. The cycle doesn’t announce its end. It just ends.

The commodity cycle developing now is real, and the AI-driven domestic growth differential is real. However, the bond recovery that follows demand destruction is also real. A portfolio that acknowledges all three, with targeted U.S. growth exposure in the AI infrastructure beneficiaries, U.S. value for the commodity cycle with a domestic earnings anchor, commodity and gold exposure sized by supply response clock rather than apocalyptic conviction, and intermediate bonds providing ballast, is built to survive the full sequence.

That’s the difference between investing in a cycle and betting on a narrative.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/15/2026 - 10:30

Iran Says It Has "No Trust" In US, Insists There Is "No Military Solution"

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday that Tehran has "no trust" in the United States and remains interested in negotiations only if Washington demonstrates seriousness, as talks aimed at ending the war remain stalled. Speaking to Indian media during the second day of the BRICS foreign ministers meeting in New Delhi, Araghchi said military initiatives are ineffective in resolving regional crises, Turkey Today reported.

“There is no military solution, and the U.S. must understand this reality,” Araghchi said, according to a statement shared by Iran’s Foreign Ministry. “They cannot achieve their goals through military action, but the situation would be different if they pursue diplomacy,” he added.

Araghchi also said the United States and Israel had “tested” Iran at least twice during the conflict.

The Iranian foreign minister said one of the main obstacles during negotiations with Washington has been inconsistent messaging from American officials. Araghchi said contradictory statements, interviews and communications from U.S. officials created deep mistrust between the two sides.

Iran has repeatedly accused Washington of pursuing diplomacy publicly while supporting military pressure against Tehran behind the scenes.

Regional tensions escalated after the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28, triggering retaliatory attacks by Tehran against Israel and U.S. allies in the Gulf region.

Although a prolonged ceasefire is currently in effect, negotiations aimed at reaching a permanent settlement have largely stalled.

Commenting on the Strait of Hormuz, Araghchi said Iran continues to allow passage for “friendly countries” while imposing restrictions on what he described as “enemy ships.”

“The Strait of Hormuz is not closed to friendly countries. Restrictions are for enemy ships,” he said, although it is unclear why Iran then claims Chinese ships had been blocked until yesterday since China remains Iran's largest, if not only, oil export client. 

“In recent days, many vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz with the assistance of our naval forces, and this process will continue,” he added.

Araghchi said ships belonging to friendly states and other commercial vessels must coordinate with Iranian armed forces while transiting the strategic waterway.

“The only solution is the complete end of the aggressive war, and afterward we will guarantee the safe passage of every ship,” he said.

He also reiterated Tehran’s position that Iran acted within its right to self-defense following the outbreak of the conflict.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/15/2026 - 10:10

US Industrial Production Surged In April

Despite record low consumer sentiment (if you believe UMich), this morning saw the Empire Fed survey show New York state factory activity expanded in May at the fastest pace in four years, and firms grew more optimistic about the outlook.

That was followed by a much hotter than expected Industrial Production print (up 0.7% MoM vs +0.3% MoM exp and higher than the highest estimate) for April (and March's decline revised stronger), lifting annual growth up to +1.35% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

April's gain for US industrial production was the largest since February 2025.

Manufacturing output rose 0.6 percent in April after edging up 0.1 percent in March.

The production of durables increased 1.2 percent in April, with gains in most categories.

The largest increase was in the output of motor vehicles and parts, which jumped 3.7 percent.

Nondurable manufacturing production edged down 0.1 percent, as declines in several categories - notably the indexes for chemicals and for plastics and rubber products, which both decreased 0.9 percent - were mostly offset by increases in the indexes for food, beverage, and tobacco products, for printing and support, and for petroleum and coal products.

Mining output edged down 0.1 percent in April after falling 1.6 percent in March. 

The output of utilities increased 1.9 percent in April, with gains in both electric and natural gas utilities.

Capacity Utilization continued to rise to 76.1% (better than the 75.8% expected)...

So, if Americans are so pissed off (UMich), why is production and factory activity (and retail sales) picking up?

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/15/2026 - 09:27

My President Went To Beijing And All I Got Was This Crummy T-Shirt

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

Stocks rallied after Jensen hopped on AF1 in Alaska. They rallied several times yesterday on Iran/China headlines, on Boeing selling planes headlines, and other soundbites from the much heralded Xi and Trump Summit.

As discussed in Wednesday’s report China and Trade, we did not have high expectations regarding this meeting. We did feel that the President wanted a deal badly enough, that we would get something to help markets, even though it seemed like China had a marginally better/better hand than the U.S.

What we were not expecting was a perfunctory set of meetings and press conferences.

The President is many things, but perfunctory is rarely one of them.

Perfunctory describes an action carried out quickly, superficially, or carelessly, usually as a routine duty rather than out of genuine interest or care.

It implies a lack of enthusiasm, effort, or thoroughness, often done merely to get a task finished.  (via AI finding the Merriam Webster definition).

With a truly impressive entourage of politicians, political appointees and business leaders, the stage seemed set for something “bigger” than what we got. We often get more market moving social media posts in the middle of the night than we got as part of this historic meeting.

I did not have high expectations, but I was hoping for more than what we got.

I would rather have seen some confrontation and pushing an agenda, than what seemed quite “perfunctory”.

It leaves me (and possibly markets) a little confused.

Have stocks been pumped as high as they can?

What decision does the President make with Iran over the weekend? 

It did not seem like there was any commitment from China to help, and according to at least some comments from the President, China was not asked to help.

Really, not sure what to make of the lack of headlines, but cannot help but think of those souvenir T-Shirts saying My President Went to Beijing and all I got was this Crummy T-Shirt.

It could have been worse.

It could have been a lot better. 

But with bonds under pressure, the affordability issue getting more and more attention, and stocks at all time highs, I think markets needed something more than we got.

Maybe there will be a “surprise” statement or two in the coming days, following up on the meeting, but I am disappointed, and suspect markets are too!

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/15/2026 - 09:15

Samsung Strike Threat Sparks Selling Contagion In Memory Stocks

President Trump's China trip has concluded, with the multi-day summit producing comments from both sides that pointed to warming bilateral relations. As Trump returns aboard Air Force One on Friday morning, traders are shifting focus to overnight turmoil in South Korea, where labor action risks rattled Samsung shares and other memory stocks, and dragged the country's benchmark KOSPI index lower.

Samsung’s strike is set to formally begin on May 21. Because the company’s semiconductor fabs are already highly automated, the impact on production is expected to be limited. However, there will likely be noticeable disruptions to packaging and logistics, R&D and design, as well… https://t.co/l2ibgeXEIL

— TrendForce (@trendforce) May 15, 2026

"There was pronounced pressure in Asia, with the KOSPI down 6.1%, led by heavy selling in Samsung and SK Hynix. Headlines around a potential 18-day union strike at Samsung further exacerbated weakness across tech," UBS analyst Zeynep Akkok wrote in a short note to clients.

First time in weeks that Samsung and KOSPI had a down week:

Samsung

KOSPI

Akkok explained that the selling in South Korean tech and memory stocks spread to Europe: "This is feeding directly into Europe, where technology stocks are down 2.7%, and UBS's semiconductors basket is off 4.2%."

One of the most aggressive AI melt-ups globally just hit its first real air pocket. Spot-up, vol-up works great…until everybody suddenly realizes they are naked to the downside.https://t.co/YqHKAjyZEP

— The Market Ear (@themarketear) May 15, 2026

Everything you need to know about the labor action theat against Samsung (courtsey of Bloomberg):

• Samsung's largest labor union threatened an 18-day walkout beginning May 21 after government-mediated wage negotiations collapsed on May 13.

• The union demands that Samsung scrap existing bonus caps and allocate 15% of operating profits to bonuses, while both sides remain sharply divided over AI-related earnings bonuses.

• Samsung CEO Jun Young-hyun and executives met with union leadership on Friday, with Samsung offering unconditional talks and urging swift dialogue.

• Samsung reportedly began cutting production on Thursday ahead of the planned strike to prepare for potential quality issues.

Beyond selling pressure in Asia and Europe, the U.S. is also experiencing a red morning, with Nasdaq futures down 1.6% and S&P 500 futures down about 1.2%.

Among U.S. semiconductor stocks, Nvidia is down 2.6% in premarket trading. Broadcom is down 3%, AMD is down 4%, and Intel is down 5%.

We briefed readers earlier on another bout of selling pressure hitting global markets this morning, including surging Treasury yields and elevated crude prices (read the report here).

Taken together, from memory, stocks soaring and yields higher amid inflation woes, this setup points to a risk-off Friday. That said, traders will be watching closely for any bull-friendly White House comments that could stabilize and provide a relief bid.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/15/2026 - 09:05

Futures Tumble As Reality Returns And Yields, Oil And Dollar Soar

Bond yields, oil and the dollar are surging this morning as US futures tumble from all-time highs, with Tech underperforming driven by a series of factors including i) surging energy prices on lack of Iran war progress, ii) elevated positioning into options expiry; iii) Central bank repricing, iv) Tech sell-off driven by higher yields, and v) strikes at Samsung Electronics. The combination of stronger consumption and higher inflation is also a factor today. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 1.0% and Nasdaq futures slide 1.4% with the momentum brigade of Semis and Memory dumping (that bastion of the memory trade, Korea, sold off last night, its worst day since early March). The losses point to a bleak end to a week in which chipmakers led a narrow rally despite steadily rising yields and the absence of a US-Iran deal. Cyclicals ex-Energy are, unsurprisingly, seeing material underperformance to Defensives. Bond yields are up 4-7bps as the Dollar looks to complete its first 5-day win steak since March. In commodities, Energy is leading with Brent rising 2.3% to above $108 a barrel. Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said an expectation that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen within the next month was “magical thinking.” Precious metals tumble on dollar strength. Today’s macro data releases are all B-grade, including Empire Mfg, Industrial / Mfg Production, and Capacity Utilization; none are market-moving.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Microsoft (MSFT) rises 0.7% after Pershing Square Chief Executive Officer Bill Ackman said he’s taken a new stake in the compan ( Alphabet -1.6%, Amazon -1.5%, Apple -1.2%, Nvidia -2%, Meta -0.7%, Tesla -1.9%)

• Dexcom (DXCM) rises 3% after the diabetes device maker gave long-term growth outlook at its investor day that impressed analysts. Separately, activist investor Elliott Investment Management took a stake in the company and struck a settlement that will put two independent directors on the board.
• Dlocal (DLO) falls 8% after the emerging markets payment services provider reported first-quarter results that missed expectations in terms of net income and earnings.
• Figma (FIG) rises 10% after the creative software platform reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast. Analysts said the report eased concerns about AI-related disruption.
• Gemini Space Station (GEMI) gains 21% after the fintech firm announced that Winklevoss Capital Fund has made a $100 million strategic investment in the company, at a price of $14 per share.
• Globant (GLOB) climbs 5% after the IT services company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations.
• Magnum Ice Cream (MICC) US-listed shares rise 12% after Reuters reported that private equity firms including Blackstone and Clayton Dubilier & Rice are exploring potential bids for the company.
• NU Holdings Ltd. (NU) falls 3% after the Brazil-based financial institution reported the cost of credit climbing 72% in the first quarter from the same period a year earlier.
• Papa John’s (PZZA) gains 6% after Reuters reported investment firm Irth Capital is working with the pizza chain’s largest US franchisee, who controls ​around 10% of its domestic restaurants, to take the company private. Reuters cited three sources which it did not identify.

In other corporate news, Kioxia said it would list its shares in the US as it reaps the benefits of a global memory chip shortage that’s ratcheted up prices of the vital component. OpenAI CFO said the ChatGPT maker may raise more capital, as the company races to secure computing power to meet surging AI demand.

A broad selloff in bond markets dragged stocks lower, bringing a sudden halt to the artificial intelligence-fueled equity rally that has pushed the S&P 500 from one record high to the next. The sentiment reversal reflects some profit taking after recent gains, and a lack of concrete progress between Trump and Xi beyond cordial niceties. Also Fed Chair Powell’s term comes to an end today, just as the 10-year Treasury hit 4.5% for the first time overnight since June, prompting a swoon in equity futures. 

With a summit between President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping ending without any path to resume flows through Hormuz, the impasse between the US and Iran is moving back into focus. Traders will now watch the next steps the two countries take after more than two months of war.

“There’s no question that momentum has been so aggressive on the upside that the risk of a correction is there,” Paul Skinner of Wellington Management told Bloomberg TV. “With a background of bond markets looking unsettled, with the problem of inflation, with the Strait of Hormuz not having a solution out of that Summit, I think there definitely is some volatility to come.”

Brent crude rose 2.3% to above $108 a barrel. Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said an expectation that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen within the next month was “magical thinking.” 

“There seems to be an emerging consensus that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in June because the cost of continued closure will be too high,” she wrote. “We are very skeptical. The optimistic scenario seems predicated on the tenuous assumption that there is a relatively easy policy lever that can be pulled.”

In central bank news, the Governor Barr pushed back against proposals to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet, describing them as wrong and a threat to financial stability. The Fed’s Williams said there’s no reason to raise or cut rates right now. 

Meanwhile, the turmoil in UK markets is showing no sign of ending as investors price in the possibility of more expansive fiscal policy under a potential successor to Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham secured a pathway for a future challenge, unsettling investors who were rattled last year by his comments that the country was “in hock” to bond markets. The prospect of a seventh prime minister in 10 years “is not a record of which any nation would be proud,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. “It is contributing to how the UK has the highest 10-year bond yield in the G7.”

Growing price pressures and a series of key dates next month are setting up the stock market for profit taking, according to Bank of America strategists. Michael Hartnett cited the next OPEC gathering, the start of the World Cup, the Group of Seven summit and the first Federal Reserve FOMC meeting under Kevin Warsh as catalysts. US inflation is on course to exceed 5% by November’s midterm elections unless the 0.4% monthly gains of the past half year slow rapidly. A scenario where inflation climbs above 4% is “where risk assets get twitchy,” Hartnett said. “Bull capitulation into stocks and tech likely fully complete in next few weeks, early June ripe for taking some off table.”

One thing that Xi has that Trump wants is low interest rates, notes BofA’s Michael Hartnett. The strategist had previously said if the 30-year Treasury yield severely breached the 5% threshold, “the door to doom starts to open.” The jury is still out on whether Powell did enough to bring inflation back to target, notes Anna Wong in a Bloomberg Eco Essential Read. The problem is that if macro - and bond yields- actually matters again, then the S&P is about 1000 points too high.

Elsewhere, BofA strategists noted that US large-cap stock funds attracted their largest inflows in five weeks at $24.4 billion, in the week to May 13, citing EPFR Global data. Discussions around positioning and momentum continue at pace. Momentum in large caps is on a tear, with the factor up more than 30% on a long/short basis this year, tracking one of the strongest six-month stretches in more than two decades.

Given the Nasdaq 100’s run-up, it’s worth taking note that the rarely seen “spot up/vol-up” correlation is evident in options. It’s part of the FOMO trade as traders, especially the retail cohort, chase upside through long calls. In a sign of how heated price action has become, the poster child of the AI melt-up, South Korea’s Kospi, touched the 8,000 level before reversing and sinking 7%. All sectors in the benchmark were sharply lower.

In geopolitics, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said he anticipates that China would commit to billions in American agricultural purchases. The CIA Director visited Cuba for talks with top leaders as the US grows frustrated over a lack of progress in economic and political change. California Governor Gavin Newsom is proposing a new tax on cloud-based software sales to raise revenue for the state.

European stocks are following their Asian counterparts lower as oil prices rise on concerns that the Strait of Hormuz will remain shut for longer. Miners fall the most while the health care subindex is the leading performer. Stoxx 600 falls 1.2% to 608.54. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• Technoprobe shares rally as much as 39%, the most on record, after the Italian company raised its revenue and margin guidance for 2027 and said it expected to hit those revised targets a year early, indicating soaring demand for its semiconductor probe cards.
• Dino Jumps shares jump as much as 18%, the most on record, after the retailer beat first-quarter earnings estimates, with an acceleration in like-for-like sales growth that outpaced competitors. The results should improve sentiment toward the stock, which has fallen nearly 50% over the past 12 months.
• Syensqo shares rally as much as 12%, its biggest gain in over 13 months, after the chemicals company reported Ebitda ahead of expectations in the first quarter. Citi said the beat and the improving order book are reassuring investors.
• Salvatore Ferragamo shares fall as much as 19% after the luxury goods maker reported first-quarter revenue below analyst estimates. Analysts said Europe remained the weakest region because of the company’s reliance on wholesale, while North America posted strong growth. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East remains a key risk to Ferragamo’s turnaround.
• Grafton shares drop as much as 3.8% to trade at a 13-month low, after Citi said tougher trading conditions will weigh on consensus estimates for the building supplies company. Analysts said weakness in the UK is being offset by growth in other regions.
• European miners are heavily underperforming on Friday, as copper continues to retreat from the record-high close seen earlier this week. Accelerating US inflation reduced the chance of rate cuts and a stronger dollar make the red metal more expensive for many buyers. Gold is also falling.

The tech sector fueled losses in Europe and Asia too, with the Stoxx 600 falling 1.4%. South Korea’s high-flying Kospi index tumbled 6.1% as investors cashed out of Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. Nvidia Corp. slid 2.1% in premarket trading after a seven-day streak of gains. Asian equities slid the most since March as higher oil prices fueled concerns over inflation, with heavyweight Korean chip stocks leading the declines after a dizzying rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 2.2%, snapping a five-week winning streak. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which contributed to much of Kospi’s roughly 80% rally this year, each dropped over 6% on Friday.  Almost all national benchmarks in the region traded lower as Brent crude headed for its biggest weekly advance in three, with efforts to end the Iran war in limbo and the crucial Strait of Hormuz staying effectively closed. President Donald Trump made conflicting remarks on Hormuz, telling Fox News the US doesn’t need the waterway open, and then later saying “we want the straits open” while sitting alongside Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing.
Japan’s government bond yields marched higher across the curve in the latest sign that elevated oil prices are raising inflation concerns across global debt markets. Meanwhile, India’s state-run refiners raised fuel prices for the first time in four years.

In FX, the US dollar has been the main beneficiary, looking to complete its first 5-day win steak since March, after a jump in oil prices reignited inflation concerns and sparked a selloff across global bond markets. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.3% to its highest level this month.

In rates, bonds fell across the Americas, Europe and Asia as doubts grew over whether oil supplies from the Middle East will normalize anytime soon. Scorching wholesale inflation data in Japan offered a fresh warning of price pressures building throughout the global economy.  Treasuries broadly hold losses seen in early Asia session as oil pushes higher with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed and efforts to end the war in limbo. Yields are off session highs however leading into the early US session as oil gains unwind slightly. Yields remain cheaper by 2bp to 6bp across the curve in a bear steepening move. US 10-year yields trade near session highs around 4.55%, and highest since May. Front-end outperforms slightly, steepening the US 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 3bp and 2.5bp on the day. Gilts lag, with UK yields trading cheaper by 9bp to 14bp across the curve.While around 14bp of easing is priced by December, or about 55% of a 25bp move, Fed-dated OIS swaps price 25bp of rate hikes by the April policy meeting next year. In UK, political pressure also in play for gilts along with gains in oil, adding to underperformance, after Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham secured a pathway to potentially challenge Keir Starmer for the prime minister’s job. Wider losses seen across gilts, where long-end trades cheaper by 14bp on the day. 

Japan’s government bond yields marched higher across the curve to effectively what are new record highs for the modern era, in the latest sign that elevated oil prices are raising inflation concerns across global debt markets. Meanwhile, India’s state-run refiners raised fuel prices for the first time in four years.

In commodities, Brent crude futures earlier topped $109 a barrel after representatives for Iran bemoaned contradictory US messages, and the The decline in Treasuries has pushed US 10-year yields up 6 bps to 4.54%. Metals are broadly lower with spot silver dropping 6%. 

Economic data slate includes May Empire manufacturing (8:30am) and April industrial production (9:15am). Fed speaker slate empty for the session.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -1.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -1.6%
• Russell 2000 mini -1.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -1.4%
• DAX -1.7%
• CAC 40 -1.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield +6 basis points at 4.54%
• VIX +1.5 points at 18.79
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.4% at 1202.79
• euro -0.4% at $1.1622
• WTI crude +3.7% at $104.88/barrel

Top Overnight News

• US President Donald Trump left China on Friday with no major breakthroughs on trade or tangible help from Beijing to end the Iran war, despite two days spent heaping praise on his host, Xi Jinping. RTRS
• An underappreciated surplus of crude oil, sloshing around storage tanks and aboard ships, cushioned the global economy when the Persian Gulf closed 2½ months ago. That excess supply is now dwindling at a record pace, with oil executives and analysts predicting that a harsh reckoning is set to upend the relative calm in energy markets. Acute shortages of key fuels and soaring prices could emerge within weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut. WSJ
• President Donald Trump said the US objective of recovering highly enriched uranium from Iran was “more for public relations than it is for anything else,” while reiterating his commitment to removing the nuclear material. BBG
• Iran has allowed some Chinese vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz following diplomatic overtures from China’s government, semiofficial Iranian news agencies reported on Thursday. WSJ
• The UAE will double its capacity to export crude oil bypassing the Strait of Hormuz by next year, as it seeks to reduce reliance on the shipping chokepoint. WSJ
• UK borrowing costs hit their highest level since 2008 on Friday and the pound dipped as traders priced in a greater likelihood that Andy Burnham would challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership. The 10-year bond yield rose as much as 0.15 percentage points to 5.15 per cent, as the price of the debt fell, taking the UK’s benchmark borrowing costs above a post-2008 high set earlier this week. FT
• Japan’s corporate goods prices surged in April by the most in 12 years, in another sign of how the war in Iran is boosting inflationary pressures and supporting the case for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. Japan’s Apr PPI surges +4.9% Y/Y in Apr, above the Street’s +3% forecast and up sharply from +2.9% in Mar. RTRS
• Anthropic has agreed the terms of a $30bn fundraising that will value it at $900bn and is expected to close as soon as this month, capitalizing on its unprecedented growth this year to leapfrog its rival OpenAI’s valuation. FT
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends today. His colleague Michael Barr said shrinking the balance sheet is a threat to financial stability, while John Williams sees monetary policy in a “good place.”
• BofA weekly flow data shows USD 20.5bln into stocks, USD 28.1bln into bonds, USD 5.8bln into cash, USD 2.0bln into gold and USD 1.3bln out of crypto. Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 7.6 (from 7.2).

Middle East

• US President Trump said it's just a question of time regarding Iran, while he also stated that current Iranian leaders are more reasonable and Iran has a lot of inner turmoil, but added that he is not going to be much more patient with Iran, according to a Fox News Interview. Trump also stated that Iran's enriched uranium could be entombed, but would rather get it, as well as stated that they have their eyes on Iran's enriched uranium and could bomb it again, but he would rather get it. Trump separately commented that he discussed Iran with Chinese President Xi, and they feel very similar about how they want to end the Iran war.
• US has rejected Iran's 14-point proposal, Tehran Time reported citing sources. According to the information, the US government has responded to Iran's written proposal regarding the end of the war.
• "Perhaps another of the Confidence Building Measures (CBM) between US and Iran is in the play", Pakistani Journalist Mallick posted.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said contradictory messages from the US remain the main issue. He added that there is no military solution, and thinks the US needs to understand that fact. They have tested us at least twice and have now concluded that there is no military solution.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said at the BRICS meeting that the US empire is in decline and Iran will never bow to pressure, according to Press TV.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said evidence shows that the UAE made American bases available for operations against Iran, provided its airspace and territory for those operations
• Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf warned that US efforts at sustaining military escalation near the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a fresh global financial crisis at a time when US national debt already stands at a whopping USD 39tln.
• Iran's Ambassador to Belarus criticised the US negotiation stance and said US President Trump's excessive ambitions hinder US-Iran talks, according to TASS.
• UAE attempted to get Saudi Arabia and Qatar to coordinate on a military response to Iran's airstrikes, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
• Qatar's Foreign Ministry told Al Arabiya it had shot down several Iranian drones near its airspace, while it stressed the need to open the Strait of Hormuz in its contacts with the Islamic Republic.
• Israel has commenced strikes on Hezbollah in the Tyre region of Lebanon.
• Israeli army detected rocket launches from Lebanon towards Israeli territory, while Israeli artillery shelling was reported on the town of Nabatieh al-Fawqa in southern Lebanon.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued after failing to sustain the early momentum that was spurred by the gains on Wall St, where tech outperformed, and sentiment was underpinned amid constructive headlines from the Trump-Xi summit, while the souring of risk sentiment coincided with higher oil prices and yields amid risk that the geopolitical situation in Iran could escalate when US President Trump returns from Beijing. ASX 200 lacked direction as strength in tech and financials was offset by losses in mining, materials, resources and utilities. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses but ultimately continued its pullback from the recent peak amid oil-related headwinds and after hot PPI data further supported the case for a rate hike at next month's BoJ meeting. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed despite the recent constructive headlines from the Trump-Xi summit, while the leaders are meeting again today in a restricted working lunch session prior to US President Trump's return to the US. Furthermore, sentiment was not helped by recent disappointing lending and aggregate financing data from China for April, which showed a surprise contraction in loans.

Top Asian News

• Japan's Minister for Economy, Trade and Industry Akazawa said they can tap FY26 budget reserves if the Middle East impact lasts. However, it was also reported that Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they are not in a situation where an extra budget is needed, while she stated they have JPY 1tln in reserve funds in the FY26 budget, but added there's no immediate need for an extra budget.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -1.4%) are entirely in the red, with sentiment hit for a multitude of factors: 1) Central bank repricing, 2) Tech sell-off driven by higher yields and strikes at Samsung Electronics, 3) Surging energy prices. European sectors confirm the negative bias, with only Health Care posting solid gains. Basic Resources and Tech sit at the bottom of the pile. Metal prices have slumped (XAU/USD -1.8%, XAG/USD -6%), as markets price in further rate hikes across the globe. In addition, South Korea’s KOSPI closed with losses of over 6%, adding to the pressure on silver prices as it highlights silver’s high-beta characteristics (as it stands, KOSPI-Silver correlation is c. +0.7).

Top European News

• UK Labour NEC decision on allowing Burnham to run in the Makerfield by-election is not as clear cut as many are reporting, according to GB News' Harwood. The vote is said to be on a "knife edge", sources say "everyone is wavering".

FX

• G10s showing a risk-off bias as the Buck in tandem with Crude prices. Antipodeans are the underperformers, while EUR and GBP also lag amid energy/political related headwinds.
• DXY continues to perform well, vaulting 50,100 and 200 DMAs over the past two sessions amid a mix of hot US inflation data, resilient jobs data/retail sales and exponentially firm oil prices. The session ahead is absent of major data/speakers, and as such, the Greenback will likely be dictated by incoming geopolitical headlines. As a reminder, Warsh today officially takes the title of Fed Chair, while Powell becomes governor and Miran steps down. MUFG in its morning note said "This week has seen the rolling correlation between DXY and the 2-year US-DXY rates spread strengthen notably, which points to scope for US dollar strength to extend further if rate hike pricing momentum continues”.
• Once again, the centre of attention continues to be UK political developments, as markets increasingly price in the possibility of a left-leaning Burnham premiership after he announced his running in an engineered Makerfield by-election. (See 07:35 BST analysis). Sterling has weakened since the announcement on Thursday evening, but losses are somewhat limited given the continued uncertainty about whether the Manchester Mayor would be able to 1) Succeed in winning the by-election, 2) Beat incumbent Starmer in a leadership challenge. Elsewhere, keep an eye on a potential announcement on a support package for bills next week, after Housing Secretary Steve Reed touted it this morning. GBP/USD fell to a 1.3328 low where it found support.

Central Banks

• Fed's Barr (voter) said smaller Fed balance sheets would likely increase Fed interventions and that reducing liquidity rules to shrink the Fed balance sheet is not a good idea. Barr stated that lowering the liquidity requirement would simply increase stability risks, and if anything, the liquidity requirement should go up, not down. Furthermore, he said they are not in a recession, but there's been little job creation, while he hasn't decided on what to do at the June FOMC meeting.
• Fed's Williams (voter) said Fed independence delivers better economic outcomes, and it is not time to worry about Fed independence, with staff focused on the mission. Williams said the context matters for inflation given its persistence above target, while he is not surprised to see near-term inflation expectations rise and is seeing pretty stable longer-term inflation expectations. Williams noted there is a lot of uncertainty around energy price outlook and that the job market is not "hot" but also not slowing dramatically, while he added that monetary policy is mildly restrictive and he doesn't see any reason to hike or cut rates right now.

Fixed Income

• Global benchmarks are down, dragged lower early in the week as markets digested hotter-than-expected CPI/PPI, the prolonged Iran conflict (higher energy prices), with fears also exacerbated by the turmoil in the UK’s Labour Party. Markets remain on tenterhooks given the mentioned factors, and this has been reflected in market pricing across several major central banks. Traders now assign a 70% chance of a 25bps hike by year-end and fully priced in for July 2027.
• USTs are currently down by 16+ ticks, and trading at the bottom end of a 109-16 to 109-29+ range. Attention over the past day has been on the Trump-Xi meeting, where initial commentary suggested positive developments; President Trump stated that many problems with China were “settled”. Focus now shifts from China, and back to Iran, where no progress has been made. Some reports have touted that Trump may look to immediately strike Iran after his China visit, to force Iran into a deal. If enacted, there is a risk that Iran chooses to restart strikes on US allies in the Middle East, leading to another spike in energy prices, hence filtering through into US yields.
• Bunds follow the negative action seen across peers, and trade at the bottom end of a 124.58 to 125.03 range. Whilst yields are firmer across the curve today, levels remain within familiar levels; 10yr holds around 3.108% vs a near-term high of 3.133%. As it stands, the belly of the curve is outperforming; however, traders may soon begin to factor in weaker economic growth across the EZ, which may see medium-term yields begin turning lower.
• Gilts underperform vs peers and are currently off by 137 ticks; holding at the bottom of an 85.44-85.85, a trough amongst the contract low. Ultimately, following peers, but the move also exacerbated by domestic politics. A full review is on the Newsquawk feed at 07:35 BST, but in brief: Labour MP for Makerfield announce he is willing to stand aside and spark a by-election, to allow current Greater Manchester Mayor Burnham to run and then, if successful, to challenge for the Labour leadership and, by association, the role of Prime Minister. For reference, Burnham was touted as the “least” market-friendly outcome by a recent FT fund manager survey.
• Australia sells AUD 1bln 1.00% December 2030 bonds b/c 3.69, avg yield 4.7049%.

Commodities

• Geopolitical risk has heightened as US President Trump returns from his trip to Beijing and refocuses on the Iran situation. As a reminder, reports yesterday via Axios suggested US President Trump's team is now discussing options for military escalation to break the deadlock. Axios added that US officials said Trump could make his next move immediately after his trip to China. Options reportedly include 1) resumption of "Project Freedom," with the Navy attempting to break the logjam in the Strait of Hormuz, 2) the launch of a new bombing campaign focusing on Iranian infrastructure. Meanwhile, Israeli officials cited by Axios said they'll be on high alert this weekend in case Trump decides to resume the war.
• In terms of more recent updates, Trump warned it is “just a question of time” regarding Iran and said he will not be “much more patient” with Tehran, while reiterating that the US is monitoring Iran’s enriched uranium and could strike again if necessary, although he would prefer a diplomatic outcome. Trump added that he discussed Iran with Chinese President Xi and both sides agreed the war should end, with China later confirming the leaders reached new consensuses and calling for a comprehensive and lasting ceasefire alongside dialogue on Tehran’s nuclear programme. However, reports suggested that Washington informed Israel that Trump could still authorise fresh strikes inside Iran, while the Tehran Times reported the US formally rejected Iran’s 14-point proposal and maintained its hardline nuclear stance.
• In the European morning, an uptick in crude and a leg lower in sentiment coincided with comments from Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi, who noted contradictory messages from the US remain the main issue. On the supply side, it’s also worth noting that the UAE announces accelerated pipeline construction to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Nonetheless, WTI Jul rose above USD 100/bbl to currently trade towards the top end of a USD 97.23-100.93/bbl range, while its Brent Jul counterpart resides at the upper end of a 106.26-109.68/bbl parameter. Dutch TTF front-month trades higher by just shy of 3% at the time of writing, north of EUR 49.MWh, vs an earlier low of around EUR 47.60/MWh.
• Precious and base metals are softer across the board, given the energy-induced strength in the USD. Spot gold trades in a USD 4,532-4,665/oz, while Spot silver sees deep losses for a second straight session as it continues to recoil from a recent rally, with prices hitting a USD 77.66/oz low vs USD 83.88/oz intraday high, and after hitting a USD 89.37/oz peak on Wednesday. 3M LME copper continues to pull back from record levels, dipping under USD 14,000/t to trade in a current USD 13,586.00- 13,961.03/t range.
• UAE is to complete the construction of a new West-East pipeline project in 2027, Bloomberg reported. The ADNOC Chairman later said they are reviewing progress on the new West-East Pipeline (c. 1.5mln BPD, when complete), set to double the co.'s export capacity via Fujairah.
• Abu Dhabi backs USD 13bln US gas plant as Middle East supplies falter, according to FT.
• Japan's METI met and confirmed that, at the next meeting, they will deepen consideration on the diversification of oil procurement sources and improve the domestic supply system and future oil reserves, Nikkei reported.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said they have gotten along well with Chinese President Xi and have a very good relationship with China, while he added Xi is a tremendous and strong leader, and that he would like to see US companies do more business in China. Trump said he spoke to Xi strongly about trade and intellectual property, as well as noted that China will open the country in stages and that it would be good for US companies. Furthermore, Trump said China is going to be buying a lot of farm products, as well as stated that he asked China about using Visa (V), and maybe the China Visa ban will come off.
• Chinese President Xi said the US and China agreed to enhance talks on regional issues, Chinese State media reported. The two sides reached an important consensus and agreed to stabilise trade relations.
• China's Foreign Ministry said US President Trump and Chinese President Xi reached a series of new consensuses, while it added that the war should not continue and that China is to contribute to Middle East peace. It also said a comprehensive and lasting ceasefire should be reached as soon as possible, and urged solving the Iranian nuclear issue through dialogue.
• US President Trump posted that Chinese President Xi congratulated him on so many tremendous successes in such a short period of time, while Trump added that the US was in decline two years ago, but is now the hottest nation.
• USTR Greer said they had a lot of successes in rebalancing trade with China and expect to see an agreement for double-digit billions of dollars of agricultural sales to China coming out of the summit. Greer said China is fulfilling its promises on soybean purchases and that China knows there is going to be a certain level of US tariffs on Chinese goods. Furthermore, he cannot commit to a given rate of tariff on Chinese goods and will release findings of trade investigations in weeks, while he stated purchases of NVIDIA H200 chips will be a sovereign decision by China, and that chip export controls were not a major topic in the meeting.

Geopolitics

• Commander of Ukrainian drone forces said drones struck Russian oil refinery in the Ryazan region.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said China's preference is probably to get Taiwan willingly and that there will be some agricultural purchases from China, while Rubio hoped to get a positive response from China regarding the case of Jimmy Lai and others.
• CIA Director delivered a message from US President Trump that the US is prepared to engage on economic and security issues if Cuba makes fundamental changes, according to a CIA official.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States May Empire Manufacturing, est. 7.2, prior 11
• 9:15 am: United States Apr Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.5%
• 9:15 am: United States Apr Capacity Utilization, est. 75.8%, prior 75.7%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we go to press this morning, markets have lost momentum after President Trump said the US doesn’t need the Strait of Hormuz open “at all”. So that’s added to fears that the Strait will remain blocked for some time, leading to a more protracted energy shock for the global economy. Indeed, Brent crude oil prices are up another +1.21% overnight to $107.00/bbl. And in turn, those inflation concerns have pushed the 10yr Treasury yield up +3.5bps this morning to 4.52%, its highest level since May last year. It’s a similar story for equities too, with S&P 500 futures down -0.25% this morning, slipping back from their record high yesterday.

Those moves have also been clear in Asian markets overnight, with particularly sharp losses in Japan after their PPI inflation data was well above expectations. In fact, the year-on-year measure surged to +4.9% in April (vs. +3.0% expected), which has led markets to price in a growing chance of BoJ rate hikes this year. Indeed, there’ve been fresh records for JGB yields overnight as well, with the 10yr yield (+9.6bps) up to 2.71%, marking its highest level since 1997. Asian equities have also struggled, with the Nikkei (-1.16%), the KOSPI (-3.66%) and the Hang Seng (-0.95%) all lower, although in mainland China there’s been a relative outperformance, with the CSI 300 (+0.04%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.12%) up modestly.

Otherwise this morning, the big thing to look out for will be the gilt market when it reopens, as it responds to the latest political turmoil in the UK. The last 24 hours have brought many headlines, but the biggest is that Greater Manchester’s Mayor Andy Burnham is seeking to return to Parliament. He now has a path to do so, because an MP in the region announced he’d be standing down to trigger a by-election, which Burnham has said he’ll try to stand in. So if he’s successful and becomes an MP, that would mean he could challenge for the party leadership to become Prime Minister.

For gilt markets, there’s been a focus on Burnham’s candidacy, in part as he said last year that the UK shouldn’t be “in hock to the bond markets”. Moreover, Burnham suggested last week that defence spending could be considered outside the fiscal rules, which added to speculation about more gilt issuance under a Burnham premiership. The news came out after gilt markets had closed yesterday, but the pound weakened sharply in response, ending the day -0.89% lower against the US Dollar, making it the worst-performing G10 currency yesterday. And this morning it’s down a further -0.22% to $1.3373.

Earlier in the day, the UK also saw the first cabinet-level resignation since the local elections, as Health Secretary Wes Streeting stood down. In his resignation letter, he said it was clear that PM Starmer “will not lead the Labour Party into the next general election”. But contrary to earlier speculation, Streeting didn’t launch a formal challenge against Starmer, which would require the backing of 20% of Labour MPs. So, for now at least, Starmer remains in position, and a leadership contest hasn’t been triggered. Gilts closed yesterday before the news of Burnham’s potential return, so 10yr gilt yields (-7.2bps) fell to 4.99%. Meanwhile, the UK data was broadly as expected too, with Q1 GDP growth at +0.6%, in line with consensus.

Ahead of all that, global markets had generally put in a strong performance yesterday, thanks to positive noises from the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, a decent batch of US data, and easing fears about inflation. So that pushed the S&P 500 (+0.77%) to another record, topping the 7,500 mark for the first time. And other risk assets performed well too, with US IG spreads closing at their tightest level in 3 months.

Several factors helped to drive that advance, but in the background, we had the Trump-Xi summit taking place in Beijing. There weren’t any market-moving headlines as such, but several points led to optimism that trade tensions might ease further. For instance, Trump said that relations would be “better than ever”, and Chinese state media reported that Xi told US executives that China’s "doors to the outside world will open wider and wider". Meanwhile, the onshore yuan reached its strongest level in 3 years yesterday, closing at 6.79 per US Dollar. One of the few more concrete headlines was Trump’s comment that China agreed to order 200 Boeing jets, but this was at the low end of expectations, leading Boeing’s shares to fall -4.73% on the news. Further trade-related announcements are expected today.

Otherwise, risk assets got further support from various corporate headlines. Notably, Cisco (+13.41%) was the top performer in the S&P 500, after they announced a better-than-expected outlook in their latest release. Wider optimism around AI was also supported by a +68% opening jump for AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems after its $5.5bn IPO. Nvidia (+4.39%) led the gains for the Magnificent 7 (+0.49%) while the Nasdaq (+0.88%) hit a record high of its own as well. That wasn’t just confined to the US either, with the STOXX 600 (+0.76%) advancing, whilst Italy’s FTSE MIB (+1.15%) hit a post-2000 high.

In the meantime, oil prices were little changed yesterday, with Brent crude (+0.09%) closing at $105.72/bbl. However, oil did edge higher late in the US session, which contributed to a more hawkish Fed repricing. For instance, futures almost fully priced in a rate hike by June 2027, with 24bps of tightening now priced (+5.6bps on the day). That came as Kansas City Fed President Schmid said he saw “continued inflation as the most pressing risk to the economy”. The US rates mood also wasn’t helped by lukewarm demand for the latest T-bill auctions as the Treasury increased auction sizes for the past couple of weeks. And in turn, 2yr Treasury yields (+3.9bps) rose above 4% for the first time since June 2025. The moves were more muted further out the curve however, with the 10yr Treasury yield (+1.3bps) inching up to a 10-month high of 4.48%. And in Europe, yields fell back yesterday, with those on 10yr bunds (-5.7bps), OATs (-6.6bps) and BTPs (-7.1bps) all lower.

Elsewhere, markets got further support from a robust batch of US data. In particular, retail sales showed signs of resilience, with the headline measure up +0.5% in April as expected. Moreover, it wasn’t just an energy story, as the measure excluding autos and gas stations was up +0.5% (vs. +0.3% expected).  And in turn, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q2 moved up from an annualised +3.7% rate to +4.0%, suggesting the economy remained on a strong footing. Meanwhile, we also had the weekly initial jobless claims, which rose a bit more than expected to 211k in the week ending May 9 (vs. 205k expected). But that still left the 4-week moving average at just 203.75k, only slightly above its two-year low the previous week.

Looking at the day ahead, and data releases include US industrial production for April, and the Empire State manufacturing survey for May. From central banks, the EC will publish their Economic Bulletin, and we’ll hear from the ECB’s Vujcic and Dolenc

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/15/2026 - 08:43

Gemini Space Station Soars On $100 Million Winklevoss Investment

Heavily shorted Gemini Space Station soared in premarket trading after Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss injected $100 million into the money-losing crypto exchange, buying Class A shares at $14 apiece in a bitcoin-funded transaction.

GEMI shares are up 20% in premarket trading after closing at $5.26 on Thursday, though the stock remains down 47% year to date.

Short interest is high at 21.5% of the float, equivalent to roughly 8.3 million shares, with 5.3 days to cover, leaving GEMI vulnerable to a squeeze on any sustained upside momentum.

"We believe the market has significantly undervalued Gemini, and that this investment will allow us to set up the company for its next phase of growth," CEO Tyler Winklevoss said in a statement.

Winklevoss noted, "Gemini has achieved several major product and regulatory milestones that position us well to evolve from a crypto company into a markets company. This investment will help fuel that ambition and set Gemini up for long-term success."

GEMI's first-quarter loss narrowed to $109 million from $149 million one year ago, while revenue jumped 42% to $50 million, helped by growth in services such as credit cards. The exchange went public in September 2025 and remains about 83% from its $28 listing price.

Analyst commentary (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Evercore ISI analyst Adam Frisch (in line, PT $5)

• If was not for the strategic investment, the stock "would likely be down on the print as key metrics like user and revenue reacceleration fell well short of pre-IPO expectations"

• "The strategic investment is the headline and should support the stock, but we do not view the underlying print as encouraging as fundamentals are not yet reaccelerating"

Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev

• Gemini has a "solid start" to the year with these restults

• The $100M capital investment and subsequent management commentary are positives

Truist Securities analyst Matthew Coad (hold, $5)

• While Gemini's 1Q were better than feared, "the capital injection may alleviate balance sheet concerns."

Analyst ratings: 

The crypto exchange went public in September 2025 and remains 83% below its $28 listing price.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/15/2026 - 07:45

German SPD Leader Faces Backlash After Claiming Migrants Burdening Welfare System Is A 'Right Wing Extremist' Lie

Via Remix News,

Labor Minister and Social Democratic Party (SPD) co-leader Bärbel Bas (SPD) says nobody is immigrating to Germany to take advantage of its social welfare system. However, she has received substantial pushback directed at her claim.

Bas’ comment came during a session of the Bundestag, when AfD MP René Springer asked Bas why she wasn’t cutting spending on immigration due to the current budget crisis, given the clear burden it is putting on social welfare, a situation that is making German taxpayers increasingly angry. 

“Immigration into the welfare state threatens social cohesion! The fact is: More and more immigrants are pushing into our social welfare system – and are bringing the system to its limits and to the brink of collapse,” CSU Member of Parliament Stephan Mayer told Bild on Tuesday, as quoted by Junge Freiheit.

Bas, in return, has called this notion a lie from “right-wing extremists.”

Her goal, like many proponents of mass immigration is to link it to eliminating Germany’s skilled worker shortage.

“We have a skilled worker shortage in this country, which many companies are addressing by saying, ‘We need everyone who is here in the country and can work.'”

Mayer, and many others before him, shot her down.

“Every statistic refutes her. The immigration into Germany’s social systems is verifiably documented and one of the main reasons why the Federal Republic is heading toward state bankruptcy,” Springer posted on X last week. 

Bärbel Bas hat ein weiteres Zitat für die Geschichtsbücher geliefert. Nach Norbert Blüms „die Rente ist sicher“, Kohls „blühende Landschaften“ im Osten, Merkels „Wir schaffen das“ zur Grenzöffnung und Scholz' „Doppel-Wumms“ zur energiepolitischen Irrfahrt setzt die… pic.twitter.com/7etME3lddg

— René Springer (@Rene_Springer) May 6, 2026

“There is less and less money for those in need because the wrong people, who have never paid into the system and never will, are being supported by us,” he told Bild. 

Remix News has reported extensively on migrant abuse of the German welfare system. In November 2024, data from the federal government revealed that 64 percent of those receiving benefits have a migration background, despite making up a much smaller share of the overall German population. The cost of providing this social welfare rose to €12.2 billion the previous year, but in total, Germany spent nearly €50 billion on immigrants and protecting its border in 2023.

And yet, in August 2025, Germany’s Federal Employment Agency is actively promoting the country’s “citizen’s benefit” (Bürgergeld) to young migrants, with one critic noting: “Germany is so generous that it not only explains to immigrants from abroad how to get a job, but also how to make ends meet in Germany without one.”

That same month, two SPD chiefs in the German state of Thuringia broke with their party, calling for most non-EU migrants — including asylum seekers and recognized refugees — to receive social benefits only as interest-free loans, repayable once they find work, in an effort to break reliance on the state.

Currently, there is very little incentive for many to find work. And even those under deportation orders are being supported at taxpayer’s expense. And this is, of course, ignoring the other issue with massive crime from the migrant community.

Bas, however, has, in turn, said Springer is simply ignorant of the facts.

“You’ve probably never heard of it, because you’re probably not out and about in the country, visiting companies,” she told him. 

Alice Weidel, the AfD parliamentary group leader in the Bundestag, reacted to this with her own input:

“The SPD’s denial of reality is symptomatic of the federal government’s inability to act—a government that doesn’t want to change a thing. A political turnaround is only possible with the AfD!” she wrote on X. 

According to Günter Krings (CDU), deputy leader of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, “there are too many people who come to us from other EU countries and only work a few hours a week, receiving social assistance for the rest of their time,” the MP told Bild, noting that the German social system is “a magnet for many EU foreigners.”

Former Bundestag member Joe Weingarten (SPD) described Bas’s statement as “a completely unrealistic assessment.” He added that she “is largely alone in this view, even within the SPD.” Weingarten also told The Pioneer, “Any responsible local politician could provide her with enough examples from their own city to prove the opposite.” 

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/15/2026 - 05:00

"Pushed Into Poverty": Somalia’s Currency Crisis Leaves Traders Holding Worthless Cash

For decades, Muse Omar Jama made a living swapping currencies in Mogadishu’s Bakara market, where customers once lined up to trade Somali shillings for dollars and mobile money. Now his office sits mostly silent, and the safes around him are stuffed with cash no one wants, according to The Guardian.

The problem began when traders in Somalia stopped accepting worn-out shilling notes, saying the bills were too damaged to use. The boycott quickly spread to shops, buses, and businesses across the country, wiping out the value of savings held in local currency. Jama describes the shock bluntly: “It’s like we went bankrupt overnight.”

He can no longer exchange the piles of shillings stacked in his office for US dollars, and many former customers leave empty-handed. “I have to turn them away because my safes, shelves and tables are already full of Somali shillings,” he says.

Photo: The Guardian

The Guardian writes that the crisis reflects Somalia’s long shift toward a dollar-based economy. The country hasn’t printed new banknotes since dictator Siad Barre was overthrown in 1991, when the central bank collapsed. Since then, US dollars, remittances sent through hawala networks, and mobile payments have increasingly replaced local currency.

The fallout has hit poor households hardest. Prices for essentials like food, medicine, and transport have risen sharply—one small bag of powdered milk reportedly doubled in price. Jama now walks five kilometers to work because buses no longer accept shillings.

Vegetable seller Asha Ali Ahmed says the change has also hurt small traders. Farmers in Afgoye now demand mobile payments, driving up produce costs in Mogadishu markets. With drought already devastating crops, many customers can no longer afford basic groceries.

According to the World Food Programme, about 6.5 million people in Somalia face severe hunger, while 2 million children under five are suffering acute malnutrition.

The federal government has declared refusing Somali shillings a crime, but many traders doubt it can enforce the order. Jama remains pessimistic: “Millions are going to suffer… More families will be pushed into poverty.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/15/2026 - 04:15

Britain Is Now Policing Thought Crime

Authored by Ciaran Kelly via DailySceptic.org,

If you want a snapshot of how far Britain has drifted from its liberal inheritance, consider the spectacle of a 78 year-old grandfather and retired pastor being warned by police that he must not preach from the Bible within a public area. His offence was not harassment, obstruction or intimidation. It was reciting and commentating on a verse many learned as children: “For God so loved the world…”

Clive Johnston’s alleged crime was breaching a ‘buffer zone’ around a hospital which houses a sexual health clinic where abortions are performed – despite the fact it was a Sunday afternoon when there were no scheduled abortions, and he made no reference whatsoever to abortion, nor motherhood, nor babies.

The state maintains he risked “influencing” anyone accessing the clinic in relation to abortion or anyone working there – a crime punishable by fine. He was prosecuted, and this week found guilty for doing so.

At this point, it is worth stating plainly: this is no longer about the cultural debate on abortion ethics.

It is about whether the state may decide which ideas are permissible in public space and which must be confined to the private sphere. In footage from the initial confrontation with police now circulating on X, the policeman literally tells Johnston his religious views should be expressed only in a “safe” place like a chaplaincy – not out on the street, where anyone passing by might hear.

Johnston’s case is the latest example in a pattern that has been building for years: the slow but unmistakable attempt to narrow the space in which Christians, in particular, are permitted to express their beliefs.

Take the school chaplain, Dr Bernard Randall, referred to Prevent for discussing Christian teaching during a school assembly. Or the numerous street preachers removed from public areas simply for speaking about Christ. Or the growing list of individuals questioned by police for nothing more than silent prayer within ‘buffer zones’ – cases in which no words were spoken, no signs displayed, no interactions initiated. The mere possibility of internal deviance in belief, it seems, is now sufficient to trigger official concern.

Abortion ‘buffer zones’ were introduced with a defensible aim: to protect women from harassment at a vulnerable moment. Few would quarrel with that objective (albeit one that was already adequately covered by pre-existing laws banning harassment). But like many well-intentioned measures, the law is being stretched beyond its original purpose. If “influence” can be inferred from the mere act of expressing Christian faith – irrespective of what is actually said, and whether it relates to abortion – then we are no longer policing conduct, but the hypothetical impact of ideas. To put it more bluntly, we are policing thought.

Once the elastic concept of “influence” becomes an offence, the implications are difficult to contain. If spoken words are suspect, what about the mere presence of someone with a certain belief? If preaching from the Bible is counted to be too influential, what about someone within the area wearing a Christian cross, or indeed a hijab? Could that deter a woman from an abortion because she knows of faith-based objections to abortion, and therefore be criminal? If influence is defined so subjectively, then almost any expression of belief becomes, in the eyes of someone, a potential offence.

The premise of the law banning “influence” rather than “coercion” or “harassment” is absurd. It suggests that we aren’t all influenced by one another on a daily basis. It isn’t immoral to change one’s mind on a topic – and indeed, it’s patronising to assume members of the public are so feeble-minded that to be in the presence of somebody with an alternative view would cause genuine harm.

Britain has developed a habit of elevating the avoidance of offence above the protection of liberty. From the proliferation of ‘non-crime hate incidents’ to the policing of speech on university campuses, the direction of travel has been unmistakable: fewer risks of discomfort at the cost of fewer freedoms.

Buffer zones are simply the latest and most disproportionate frontier. What is now being tested is not just the boundary of acceptable behaviour, but the boundary of acceptable belief. You need not share Clive Johnston’s theology to see the danger.

A country that tells its citizens their faith belongs only in designated “safe areas” is not protecting pluralism, but actively dismantling it.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/15/2026 - 03:30

How Global Economic Power Shifted In The Last 10 Years

The global economic order has shifted dramatically over the last decade, with countries reshuffling positions amid inflation shocks, geopolitical tensions, pandemic disruptions, and the rapid rise of AI-driven industries.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Gabriel Cohen, compares the world’s 15 largest economies in 2016 and 2026 using IMF World Economic Outlook data, revealing which countries gained ground, which fell behind, and which surprised the most.

The U.S. remains the world’s largest economy at $32.4 trillion in 2026 forecasts, while China crossed the $20 trillion mark. India posted one of the fastest growth rates among major economies, while Japan became the only G20 economy to shrink over the decade.

The World’s Reordering of Major Economies

The period from 2016 to 2026 saw major reordering among the world’s top economies, with Mexico overtaking Spain, India overtaking France, and Russia leapfrogging both Brazil and Canada.

The table below lists the world’s 15 largest economies in both 2016 and 2026 based on their nominal GDP in billions of U.S. dollars.

One of the biggest shifts in the rankings came from India, whose economy expanded by 83% between 2016 and 2026. By the end of the period, India’s GDP had nearly caught up with both Japan and Germany.

Meanwhile, Germany overtook Japan to become the world’s third-largest economy, despite relatively modest growth compared to emerging markets.

Germany’s growth was modest compared to emerging markets like China, India, and Mexico, and was tempered in part by the economic slowdown it faced throughout the post-COVID era. However, Germany still grew faster than other major European Union economies like France (46%) and Italy (45%), though not Spain (68%).

The decade between 2016 and 2026 also saw the European Union lose its second-largest member economy, the United Kingdom, in 2020. The UK grew its GDP by 57% to reach $4.3 trillion by 2026.

Another Lost Decade for Japan

Every major world economy expanded over the last decade, with one notable exception. Japan’s GDP shrank from $5.1 trillion in 2016 to $4.4 trillion in 2026, reflecting a 14% contraction.

Following decades of rapid economic expansion in the late 20th century, Japan’s economy has struggled since the 1990s. The government has accumulated a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 200%, while major exporters in the auto and tech sectors have faced rising competition and trade tensions involving both the U.S. and China.

Perhaps Japan’s most pressing challenge is its demographic crisis. The country’s population was roughly 5 million larger in 2016 than in 2026, reflecting a decades-long fertility decline that threatens future growth prospects.

Russia’s Economic Expansion

Russia’s economy more than doubled in size between 2016 and 2026, growing by 107% to reach $2.7 trillion based on IMF forecasts. This expansion came after the Russian financial crisis of 2014–2016, which was driven largely by falling oil prices.

Russia’s growth, fueled heavily by oil and gas exports, came despite sanctions imposed after the country’s occupation of Crimea in 2014 and full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Even as the U.S. and European Union imposed sanctions, Russian energy exports were rerouted toward buyers in China and India, albeit at discounted prices.

How do these countries and economic powers compare with individual U.S. states? Find out with The 50 Largest Economies, Including U.S. States on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/15/2026 - 02:45

Peter Schiff: Printing Money Is Not the Cure for Cononavirus



In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff talked about coronavirus and the impact that it is having on the markets. Earlier this month, Peter said he thought the virus was just an excuse for stock market woes. At the time he believed the market was poised to fall anyway. But as it turns out, coronavirus has actually helped the US stock market because it has led central banks to pump even more liquidity into the world financial system. All this means more liquidity — central banks easing. In fact, that is exactly what has already happened, except the new easing is taking place, for now, outside the United States, particularly in China.” Although the new money is primarily being created in China, it is flowing into dollars — the dollar index is up — and into US stocks. Last week, US stock markets once again made all-time record highs. In fact, I think but for the coronavirus, the US stock market would still be selling off. But because of the central bank stimulus that has been the result of fears over the coronavirus, that actually benefitted not only the US dollar, but the US stock market.” In the midst of all this, Peter raises a really good question. The primary economic concern is that coronavirus will slow down output and ultimately stunt economic growth. Practically speaking, the world would produce less stuff. If the virus continues to spread, there would be fewer goods and services produced in a market that is hunkered down. Why would the Federal Reserve respond, or why would any central bank respond to that by printing money? How does printing more money solve that problem? It doesn’t. In fact, it actually exacerbates it. But you know, everybody looks at central bankers as if they’ve got the solution to every problem. They don’t. They don’t have the magic wand. They just have a printing press. And all that creates is inflation.” Sometimes the illusion inflation creates can look like a magic wand. Printing money can paper over problems. But none of this is going to fundamentally fix the economy. In fact, if central bankers were really going to do the right thing, the appropriate response would be to drain liquidity from the markets, not supply even more.” Peter explained how the Fed was originally intended to create an “elastic” money supply that would expand or contract along with economic output. Today, the money supply only goes in one direction — that’s up. The economy is strong, print money. The economy is weak, print even more money.” Of course, the asset that’s doing the best right now is gold. The yellow metal pushed above $1,600 yesterday. Gold is up 5.5% on the year in dollar terms and has set record highs in other currencies. Because gold is rising even in an environment where the dollar is strengthening against other fiat currencies, that shows you that there is an underlying weakness in the dollar that is right now not being reflected in the Forex markets, but is being reflected in the gold markets. Because after all, why are people buying gold more aggressively than they’re buying dollars or more aggressively than they’re buying US Treasuries? Because they know that things are not as good for the dollar or the US economy as everybody likes to believe. So, more people are seeking out refuge in a better safe-haven and that is gold.” Peter also talked about the debate between Trump and Obama over who gets credit for the booming economy – which of course, is not booming.

We are living in crazy times. I have a hard time believing that most of the general public is not awake, but in reality, they are. We've never seen anything like this; I mean not even under Obama during the worst part of the Great Recession." Now the Fed is desperately trying to keep interest rates from rising. The problem is that it's a much bigger debt bubble this time around , and the Fed is going to have to blow a lot more air into it to keep it inflated. The difference is this time it's not going to work." It looks like the Fed did another $104.15 billion of Not Q.E. in a single day. The Fed claims it's only temporary. But that is precisely what Bernanke claimed when the Fed started QE1. Milton Freedman once said, "Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program." The same applies to Q.E., or whatever the Fed wants to pretend it's doing. Except this is not QE4, according to Powell. Right. Pumping so much money out, and they are accusing China of currency manipulation ? Wow! Seriously! Amazing! Dump the U.S. dollar while you still have a chance. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. And it is even worse than that, In addition to the $104.15 billion of "Not Q.E." this past Thursday; the FED added another $56.65 billion in liquidity to financial markets the next day on Friday. That's $160.8 billion in two days!!!! in just 48 hours. That is more than 2 TIMES the highest amount the FED has ever injected on a monthly basis under a Q.E. program (which was $80 billion per month) Since this isn't QE....it will be really scary on what they are going to call Q.E. Will it twice, three times, four times, five times what this injection per month ! It is going to be explosive since it takes about 60 to 90 days for prices to react to this, January should see significant inflation as prices soak up the excess liquidity. The question is, where will the inflation occur first . The spike in the repo rate might have a technical explanation: a misjudgment was made in the Fed's money market operations. Even so, two conclusions can be drawn: managing the money markets is becoming harder, and from now on, banks will be studying each other's creditworthiness to a greater degree than before. Those people, who struggle with the minutiae of money markets, and that includes most professionals, should focus on the causes and not the symptoms. Financial markets have recovered from each downturn since 1980 because interest rates have been cut to new lows. Post-2008, they were cut to near zero or below zero in all major economies. In response to a new financial crisis, they cannot go any lower. Central banks will look for new ways to replicate or broaden Q.E. (At some point, governments will simply see repression as an easier option). Then there is the problem of 'risk-free' assets becoming risky assets. Financial markets assume that the probability of major governments such as the U.S. or U.K. defaulting is zero. These governments are entering the next downturn with debt roughly twice the levels proportionate to GDP that was seen in 2008. The belief that the policy worked was completely predicated on the fact that it was temporary and that it was reversible, that the Fed was going to be able to normalize interest rates and shrink its balance sheet back down to pre-crisis levels. Well, when the balance sheet is five-trillion, six-trillion, seven-trillion when we're back at zero, when we're back in a recession, nobody is going to believe it is temporary. Nobody is going to believe that the Fed has this under control, that they can reverse this policy. And the dollar is going to crash. And when the dollar crashes, it's going to take the bond market with it, and we're going to have stagflation. We're going to have a deep recession with rising interest rates, and this whole thing is going to come imploding down. everything is temporary with the fed including remaining off the gold standard temporary in the Fed's eyes could mean at least 50 years This liquidity problem is a signal that trading desks are loaded up on inventory and can't get rid of it. Repo is done out of a need for cash. If you own all of your securities (i.e., a long-only, no leverage mutual fund) you have no need to "repo" your securities - you're earning interest every night so why would you want to 'repo' your securities where you are paying interest for that overnight loan (securities lending is another animal). So, it is those that 'lever-up' and need the cash for settlement purposes on securities they've bought with borrowed money that needs to utilize the repo desk. With this in mind, as we continue to see this need to obtain cash (again, needed to settle other securities purchases), it shows these firms don't have the capital to add more inventory to, what appears to be, a bloated inventory. Now comes the fun part: the Treasury is about to auction 3's, 10's, and 30-year bonds. If I am correct (again, I could be wrong), the Fed realizes securities firms don't have the shelf space to take down a good portion of these auctions. If there isn't enough retail/institutional demand, it will lead to not only a crappy sale but major concerns to the street that there is now no backstop, at all, to any sell-off. At which point, everyone will want to be the first one through the door and sell immediately, but to whom? If there isn't enough liquidity in the repo market to finance their positions, the firms would be unable to increase their inventory. We all saw repo shut down on the 2008 crisis. Wall St runs on money. . OVERNIGHT money. They lever up to inventory securities for trading. If they can't get overnight money, they can't purchase securities. And if they can't unload what they have, it means the buy-side isn't taking on more either. Accounts settle overnight. This includes things like payrolls and bill pay settlements. If a bank doesn't have enough cash to payout what its customers need to pay out, it borrows. At least one and probably more than one banks are insolvent. That's what's going on. First, it can't be one or two banks that are short. They'd simply call around until they found someone to lend. But they did that, and even at markedly elevated rates, still, NO ONE would lend them the money. That tells me that it's not a problem of a couple of borrowers, it's a problem of no lenders. And that means that there's no bank in the world left with any real liquidity. They are ALL maxed out. But as bad as that is, and that alone could be catastrophic, what it really signals is even worse. The lending rates are just the flip side of the coin of the value of the assets lent against. If the rates go up, the value goes down. And with rates spiking to 10%, how far does the value fall? Enormously! And if banks had to actually mark down the value of the assets to reflect 10% interest rates, then my god, every bank in the world is insolvent overnight. Everyone's capital ratios are in the toilet, and they'd have to liquidate. We're talking about the simultaneous insolvency of every bank on the planet. Bank runs. No money in ATMs, Branches closed. Safe deposit boxes confiscated. The whole nine yards, It's actually here. The scenario has tended to guide toward for years and years is actually happening RIGHT NOW! And people are still trying to say it's under control. Every bank in the world is currently insolvent. The only thing keeping it going is printing billions of dollars every day. Financial Armageddon isn't some far off future risk. It's here. Prepare accordingly. This fiat system has reached the end of the line, and it's not correct that fiat currencies fail by design. The problem is corruption and manipulation. It is corruption and cheating that erodes trust and faith until the entire system becomes a gigantic fraud. Banks and governments everywhere ARE the problem and simply have to be removed. They have lost all trust and respect, and all they have left is war and mayhem. As long as we continue to have a majority of braindead asleep imbeciles following orders from these psychopaths, nothing will change. Fiat currency is not just thievery. Fiat currency is SLAVERY. Ultimately the most harmful effect of using debt of undefined value as money (i.e., fiat currencies) is the de facto legalization of a caste system based on voluntary slavery. The bankers have a charter, or the legal *right*, to create money out of nothing. You, you don't. Therefore you and the bankers do not have the same standing before the law. The law of the land says that you will go to jail if you do the same thing (creating money out of thin air) that the banker does in full legality. You and the banker are not equal before the law. ALL the countries of the world; Islamic or secular, Jewish or Arab, democracy or dictatorship; all of them place the bankers ABOVE you. And all of you accept that only whining about fiat money going down in exchange value over time (price inflation which is not the same as monetary inflation). Actually, price inflation itself is mainly due to the greed and stupidity of the bankers who could keep fiat money's exchange value reasonably stable, only if they wanted to. Witness the crash of silver and gold prices which the bankers of the world; Russian, American, Chinese, Jewish, Indian, Arab, all of them collaborated to engineer through the suppression and stagnation of precious metals' prices to levels around the metals' production costs, or what it costs to dig gold and silver out of the ground. The bankers of the world could also collaborate to keep nominal prices steady (as they do in the case of the suppression of precious metals prices). After all, the ability to create fiat money and force its usage is a far more excellent source of power and wealth than that which is afforded simply by stealing it through inflation. The bankers' greed and stupidity blind them to this fact. They want it all, and they want it now. In conclusion, The bankers can create money out of nothing and buy your goods and services with this worthless fiat money, effectively for free. You, you can't. You, you have to lead miserable existences for the most of you and WORK in order to obtain that effectively nonexistent, worthless credit money (whose purchasing/exchange value is not even DEFINED thus rendering all contracts based on the null and void!) that the banker effortlessly creates out of thin air with a few strokes of the computer keyboard, and which he doesn't even bother to print on paper anymore, electing to keep it in its pure quantum uncertain form instead, as electrons whizzing about inside computer chips which will become mute and turn silent refusing to tell you how many fiat dollars or euros there are in which account, in the absence of electricity. No electricity, no fiat, nor crypto money. It would appear that trust is deteriorating as it did when Lehman blew up . Something really big happened that set off this chain reaction in the repo markets. Whatever that something is, we aren't be informed. They're trying to cover it up, paper it over with conjured cash injections, play it cool in front of the cameras while sweating profusely under the 5 thousands dollar suits. I'm guessing that the final high-speed plunge into global economic collapse has begun. All we see here is the ripples and whitewater churning the surface, but beneath the surface, there is an enormous beast thrashing desperately in its death throws. Now is probably the time to start tying up loose ends with the long-running prep projects, just saying. In other words, prepare accordingly, and Get your money out of the banks. I don't care if you don't believe me about Bitcoin. Get your money out of the banks. Don't keep any more money in a bank than you need to pay your bills and can afford to lose.











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The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

The FBI released a summary of its file from the Hillary Clinton email investigation on Friday, showing details of Clinton's explanation of her use of a private email server to handle classified communications. The release comes nearly two months after FBI Director James Comey announced that although Clinton's handling of classified information was "extremely careless," it did not rise to the level of a prosecutable offense. Attorney General Loretta Lynch announced the next day that she would not pursue charges in the matter. "We are making these materials available to the public in the interest of transparency and in response to numerous Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests," the FBI noted in a statement sent to reporters with links to the documents. The documents include notes from Clinton's July 2 interview with agents, as well as a "factual summary of the FBI's investigation into this matter," according to the FBI release. Throughout her interview with agents, Clinton repeatedly said she relied on the career professionals she worked with to handle classified information correctly. The agents asked about a series of specific emails, and in each case Clinton said she wasn't worried about the particular material being discussed on a nonclassified channel.