My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

• The $260 Billion Mom-and-Pop Funds Distorting the Credit Market: Popular with individual investors, fixed-maturity funds are hoovering up the debt of big companies, reducing borrowing costs but obscuring repayment risk. (Bloomberg)

• Goodbye, Price Tags. Hello, Dynamic Pricing. Businesses increasingly are using algorithms to determine prices, and to rapidly adjust those prices throughout the day. This new technology is called dynamic pricing, and it’s poised to change the way businesses set and advertise their prices. Think of the ever-changing electronic signs at gas stations, but for everything. (New York Times) see also Gen X-ers Have Money to Spend. Why Are Retailers Ignoring Them? Three in four Americans ages 45 to 60 say they expect to overspend for the holidays. They’re “sort of like the glue within the consumer spectrum.” (New York Times)

• Unpacking the Mechanics of Conduit Debt Financing: Understanding the pass-through financing model behind the AI infrastructure boom. (This Is Not Investment Advice)

• Private Equity Firms Could Face More Litigation as They Push into Retail: TAMU’s William Magnuson and Oxford’s Ludovic Phalippou argue that misleading metrics and opaque fees pose “significant litigation risks when ordinary investors enter the picture.” (Institutional Investor)

• Are the rich fleeing Mamdani’s Manhattan? Not according to the data. The reasons for the increase in sales can be attributed in large part to overall gains in the stock market, the expectations of big Wall Street bonuses and declining mortgage rates. (USA Today)

• What Is a Tariff Shock? Insights from 150 years of Tariff Policy. What are the short-run effects of tariff shocks on macro aggregates? A careful review of the major changes in US tariff policy since 1870 shows no systematic relation between the state of the cycle and the direction of the tariff changes, as partisan differences on the effects and desirability of tariffs led to opposite policy responses to similar economic conditions. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

• Mapping the Sense of What’s Going On Inside: Scientists are learning how the brain knows what’s happening throughout the body, and how that process might go awry in some psychiatric disorders. (New York Times)

• The Ultrarich Are Spending a Fortune to Live in Extreme Privacy: In Miami and elsewhere, the wealthy are moving in increasingly private spheres, shelling out big money to bypass the indignities of public life. (Wall Street Journal)

• YouTube’s Right-Wing Stars Fuel Boom in Politically Charged Ads. The popularity of YouTube podcasts among conservatives is driving a boom in small businesses tailoring ads to their millions of listeners, paying hosts like Joe Rogan and Candace Owens to read out promotions in the hope that fans will place orders. The phenomenon has enriched both the hosts and YouTube, supporting further growth of the businesses using ideology to sell. (Bloomberg free) see also How Right-Wing Superstar Riley Gaines Built an Anti-Trans Empire: The swimmer tied a trans woman for fifth. The MAGA industrial complex took care of the rest. (Mother Jones)

• Life in the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry borderlands, from beatosu to goblu: The legend of beatosu originated with a prank carried out by Peter Fletcher, a Michigan alumnus who served as chairman of the Michigan State Highway Commission in the 1970s. Fletcher was in charge of the state highway maps, which include a tiny strip of northern Ohio. At Fletcher’s direction, the highway commission’s 1978 maps included a fictional town called “goblu” near Toledo and another called “beatosu” in a rural part of Fulton County, Ohio. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Wilhelm Schmid, CEO of famed watchmaker A. Lange & Söhne, the Glashütte, German watchmaker, recorded live at the Audrain Newport Concours d’Elegance.

Bitcoin Disconnecting From Nasdaq

Source: Apollo

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The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Visualizing The $19 Trillion Global Cost Of Conflict

Last year, the economic impact of violence reached $19.1 trillion, or $717 billion higher than the previous year.

This came as conflict deaths hit 25-year highs, and wars continued in the Ukraine and Gaza. In response to heightened geopolitical tensions, European nations have injected billions into defense spending. Even Japan plans to double its defense spending to 2% of GDP.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows the global cost of conflict in 2024, based on analysis from the Institute for Economic and Peace.

Breaking Down the Cost of Conflict

Below, we show the economic impact of violence worldwide, with figures including direct and indirect costs:

In 2024, military spending grew by $540 billion to reach $9 trillion.

Overall, 84 countries increased spending on military as a share of GDP, with Norway, Denmark, and Bangladesh seeing the greatest jumps. U.S. military spending totaled $949 billion, while China followed at $450 billion, in international dollars.

As the second-highest cost, internal security expenditure hit $5.7 trillion. This includes costs associated with policing and the judicial system.

Meanwhile, GDP losses causes by conflict surged 44% in 2024 to reach $462 billion. Compared to 2008, GDP losses have more than quadrupled, while the cost of conflict deaths has followed a similar trend.

Adding to this, the cost of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) had an economic toll of $343 billion. Today, 122 million people globally are forcibly displaced, more than doubling from 2008.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on Europe’s biggest armies.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 05:45

'Surgical Removal Of An Organ': Ukrainian Recruiter Arrested For Allegedly Beating Conscript's Genitals In Heinous Attack

Via Remix News,

After a forced conscript was beaten in his groin area to the point that he lost an “organ” following emergency surgery, Ukrainian authorities have moved to arrest the recruitment center head.

The staff of the Ukrainian State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) arrested the head of one of the district recruitment and military service preparation centers (TCK) in the Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.

The recruiter is accused of brutally beating a conscripted man for refusing to perform a fluorographic examination during the medical aptitude test (VLK), reported by the General Prosecutor’s Office of Ukraine and the DBR, based on the announcements of Ukrainian news outlet Pravda.ua.

The DBR investigated complaints from citizens and parliamentarians that beatings, torture, and demands for money had taken place in a TCK operation in Transcarpathia. Notably, neighboring Hungary has alleged that recruits from the Transcarpathia region are targeted for recruitment at an especially high rate due to them being ethnic Hungarians.

“Investigators uncovered numerous abuses of power committed by a senior officer at the center,” the DBR communication was quoted by the source.

Based on the investigation, it was revealed that the man was sent to the hospital for a VLK examination together with other citizens.

When he refused the examination, the lieutenant colonel deliberately inflicted at least five blows against the victim, targeting the groin area.

As a result, the victim suffered serious physical injuries that required the “surgical removal of an organ.”

The officer was charged with abuse of power during martial law, with serious consequences. On the motion of the prosecutors, the court ordered an arrest without the possibility of bail. Based on the source, it was also revealed that the possible involvement of other persons, including police officers, in the case is currently being investigated.

This beating is likely just the tip of the iceberg, though. As already reported by Remix News, a Hungarian citizen and entrepreneur, József Sebestyén, died in July in the Beregsász hospital after Ukrainian recruiters severely beat him with iron bars in a forest, with the incident also caught on film.

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has forcefully condemned forced conscription in Ukraine after the beating death. Speaking on Kossuth Radio, Orbán linked the tragic incident directly to the ongoing war, asserting that a country where such events occur due to forced conscription is unfit for European Union membership.

“A country where this could happen cannot be a member of the EU,” said Orbán.

“We are talking about a Hungarian-Ukrainian dual citizen. This entitles us to avoid using cautious language. They beat a Hungarian citizen to death, that’s the situation. And this is a case that we need to investigate, as this cannot happen,” Orbán stated, emphasizing the gravity of the situation. 

He highlighted that while the front lines might seem distant to many Hungarians, “the war is taking place in our neighboring country. The threat is directly here.”

A video post on this topic from Remix News was immediately flagged by X and censored, meaning that EU censors may be jumping on this report due to its sensitive nature.

For years, videos of Ukrainian recruits being dragged off the streets and beaten have been circulating, making the arrest of one of these recruiters quite out of the ordinary.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 05:00

Future Of Fertility Chronically Overestimated

The newly released OECD Pensions at a Glance report shows how fertility projections have been wrong again and again over the years, grossly underestimating how much fertility would decline each time.

As fertility rates and pension funds are intrinsically tied, this can cause problems down the line, when incoming payments from workers to pension funds are smaller than expected and payouts to current pensioners exceed them.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz shows in the following data, the lifetime births per woman in OECD countries sank from 2.2 in 1980 to 1.9 in 1994.

You will find more infographics at Statista

At the time, demographers estimated that the rate would recover up to around 2.1 by the middle of the upcoming century.

By 2002, births rates had declined to 1.66, yet a recovery to 1.85 by 2047 was once again expected.

By 2012, there was actually a slight recovery back up to 1.75 births per women, prompting demographers to expect the number of births to rise to an average of 1.8 per woman by 2050.

Yet, birth rates started to fall again to below 1.5 by 2024, the latest year on record.

Still, the tale of recovering fertility has not been eliminated, as birth numbers are currently projected to rise again, albeit only slightly, to 1.52 by 2050 and 1.54 by 2070.

Many scientists now see the official UN demographic forecasts as conservative estimates and believe that the world population will actually shrink significantly faster than they project.

 A 2020 study published in The Lancet actually calculates that contrary to what UN figures say the world population will have shrunk by 2100 and could potentially already be significantly lower than it is today.

While population growth has been studied at length and models in this field tend to be more reliable, less work has been done on the newer topic of population decline, making calculations more unreliable.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 04:15

"Made For Germany" Is History: Covestro Caught In The Waves Of The Sell-Off

Submitted By Thomas Kolbe

Abu Dhabi’s state-owned energy giant ADNOC has acquired nearly all shares of German chemical powerhouse Covestro. Germany is gradually losing its strategic position in critical industrial sectors. The sell-off is accelerating.

Remember the big media spectacle “MADE FOR GERMANY” this past July? Chancellor Friedrich Merz staged a meeting with 61 corporate CEOs, proudly announcing supposed future investments of €631 billion.

Even then, given the ongoing capital flight from Germany, it was clear that the event was mainly a media stunt – a sad attempt to distract the public from the real state of the German industrial base.

Sell-Off Accelerates 

Since that day, Germany’s industrial sell-off has not slowed – it has accelerated. Companies have already made their judgment: suffocating regulations, exploding compliance costs in the name of climate policy, and an administratively hostile environment have turned investments into a risk.

In short: industrial production is being systematically and willfully strangled by lawmakers.

Last week, German chemical giant Covestro grabbed the headlines. This time, it was Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC on a bargain hunt – Black Friday has become a daily routine.

At around €62 per share, for a total transaction value of €15 billion, ADNOC increased its stake to over 95% – effectively taking control of company policy.

Loss of Capital and Know-How 

Capital gains will no longer flow to Germany but to Abu Dhabi. Strategic decisions about investment and location policy are now made by owners abroad.

This is especially critical for a company of clear strategic importance: Covestro’s high-performance plastics and polyurethanes are essential for Germany’s key industries – from automotive and machinery to construction and electrical engineering. Covestro is a central element of the industrial value chain, whose stability largely determines the future of the entire German industrial base.

About 40% of the 15,000 employees still work in Germany, many at the Leverkusen headquarters. But even Covestro has not escaped the general decline. Germany’s chemical industry now operates at just 71% capacity – a drop of more than 20% from the record year of 2018 – a sector now navigating increasingly rough waters.

Covestro has reported negative net earnings in recent years, while operating profit (EBIT) fell by more than 50% from 2023 to 2024, down to €87 million. Pressure from international competitors, high energy costs, and increasingly complex Brussels regulations have pushed the company to the limits of its competitiveness.

A Broader Trend 

The trend of selling off Germany’s industrial crown jewels began with the sale of Augsburg-based robotics and automation specialist KUKA in 2016. At the time, China’s Midea Group acquired a majority stake for €4.6 billion.

Even then, the same spectacle played out: the new investor publicly promised jobs and location guarantees, but quickly shifted to a mode where strategic decisions were tied exclusively to return expectations and location quality.

There is simply no place for sentimental traditionalism or patriotic rhetoric in this world. Global industry moves forward – and no one outside Europe shares the passion for risky green policy experiments.

Dramatic Consequences 

Covestro and KUKA are just two prominent examples of a secular trend. Year after year, Germany loses net direct investment. Last year alone, €64.5 billion flowed out – capital that is being invested elsewhere in new production capacity. Note: this is a net figure, which is expected to be even higher this year.

Germany’s economy is bleeding, while political leaders respond with half-hearted industrial subsidies – like the so-called “industrial electricity price” – and ever-new regulations. Many companies are likely to exit in anticipation of the cost tsunami from the CO₂ certificate market starting in 2027.

The U.S. Factor 

Above all, the United States beckons as an alternative production base. The Trump administration has made it clear that it will use every lever – including tariff pressure – to advance reindustrialization. This includes deregulation of the energy sector, an end to costly renewable experiments, and an industrial policy that welcomes investors rather than driving them away.

Add to that promises from Arab states like Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia to invest trillions in U.S. production – concrete proof of Washington’s seriousness. “Made for USA” will become a major political and economic mantra in the years to come. The U.S. economy is currently growing at over 4%, accelerating global capital shifts.

The list of German companies moving to the U.S. is growing. Hamburg-based metal producer Aurubis, automotive groups Stellantis, and supplier Bosch are among firms planning to strengthen the North American economy with billions in investments.

No One Sacrifices the Green God 

It would be too simplistic to blame this trend solely on U.S. trade policy. Long before Trump returned to the White House, it was clear that industrial production in Germany – and across the EU – had become unprofitable. As long as national policy enforces the Green Deal and its “green transformation,” nothing will change.

No one dares to sacrifice the Green God – the destructive CO₂ narrative driving economic collapse.

Half-hearted protests by Mittelstand associations, such as the Family Entrepreneurs, calling for broader political discourse including the Alternative for Germany – and their sharp political and media pushback – show that Germany still does not recognize the seriousness of the situation.

With each major corporation relocating abroad, the backbone of the German economy – the deeply integrated Mittelstand – is weakened. Even the public sector hiring half a million people cannot mask the fact that industry has cut hundreds of thousands of jobs and will continue to lose value in the coming years.

Celebrating the reintroduction of an EV subsidy as a major industrial policy step is, at its core, nothing more than a declaration of bankruptcy of eco-socialist policies that have propelled the country into a spiral of poverty.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 03:30

The Dutch Are The Most Likely To 'Borrow' Their Neighbor's WiFi

According to data collected by Statista Consumer Insights, 16 percent of Dutch online respondents said that they mainly access their internet at home via their neighbor or landlord’s wireless connection.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, this is double the rate of people in neighboring Germany and France.

You will find more infographics at Statista

According to the survey, only 41 percent of respondents in the Netherlands had access to broadband and 19 percent had a mobile connection via smartphone or tablet in 2025.

The United States and the United Kingdom had far lower rates of adults using their neighbors’ WiFi, at four percent and three percent, respectively.

The U.S. also had a relatively low share of people with broadband, at 37 percent, while the UK’s was higher at 63 percent.

While the reasons for this discrepancy are not fully clear from the data alone, it’s interesting to note that breaking into an encrypted WiFi is not a criminal offense in the Netherlands, even though it is in other countries.

Breaking into a computer, however, is.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 02:45

Over €325 Million In Fraudulent Welfare Benefits Support Illicit Gang Networks In Sweden; Report

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

A Swedish government review has found that thousands of people linked to gangs in Sweden have been drawing income from the country’s benefits system for years, creating what authorities describe as a reliable, legal-looking revenue stream for criminal networks.

According to findings prepared under the state’s organized crime framework, about 4,000 individuals known to police for gang affiliation have been receiving sickness benefits, sick pay, or job-seeker support. Combined payments across the group are estimated at 3.6 billion kronor (€327.5 million) over time, enough to provide what officials call a “white” income even when illicit earnings fluctuate.

It effectively means that law-abiding Swedish taxpayers are inadvertently subsidizing criminal gangs through the benefit system, providing them with a safety net income that enables them to continue operating.

Nils Öberg, head of the Social Insurance Agency, said the material reinforces the pattern authorities have been tracking. Speaking to TV4, he said the welfare system has become part of the business model: an official income on paper, and criminal income off it.

Samnytt notes that the report shows a marked overrepresentation of people with a migration background in the cohort examined. This applies to both those born abroad and those born in Sweden to two foreign-born parents.

Investigators highlight the contradiction between benefits requiring reduced work ability and the documented activity of some recipients. Case studies in the report refer to individuals formally certified as unfit for work while running gangs, traveling abroad, or coordinating violent offenses. One man listed on medical grounds after an accident was recorded visiting gyms and participating in gang operations. Another, diagnosed with limited work ability, is reported to have led a large criminal network while accumulating more than 30 convictions.

Maintenance support is also cited as a hidden revenue channel. Since many gang figures report little or no legal income, the state covers child maintenance on their behalf. In 2024, more than 3,600 such individuals were classified as unable to pay, resulting in payouts of around 118 million kronor (€10.7 million).

The review also tracked corporate links. One in three businesses that filed sickness claims on behalf of gang-connected employees are run or previously run by people with criminal links. More than four in five show clear connections to gang networks. The personal assistance sector in particular was flagged as an area with heavy infiltration, both among staff and among owners.

Social Insurance Minister Anna Tenje, as cited by Sydsvenskan, said that the situation was “astonishing” and insisted that public funds are meant for people who genuinely need them. She argued that weakening the financial lifeline to criminal networks is essential if the government wants to reduce gang influence.

Speaking to TV4, Labor Minister Johan Britz described those involved as “welfare pirates,” adding that taxpayers were effectively financing criminal lifestyles under the guise of social support.

Police estimate that around 67,500 people in Sweden have some form of gang association, of whom roughly 17,500 are considered actively involved. National Police Commissioner Petra Lundh said there is no clear indication of improvement or deterioration and warned that recruitment remains steady.

The authors of the review state that existing law was designed for honest applicants rather than organized exploitation and suggest that stronger information-sharing powers and more robust verification are required. The government says new data-access legislation will come into effect in December, with further reforms planned later in the parliamentary term.

Officials say the next step is to reassess benefit cases flagged in the review and halt payments where fraud is suspected. The agency involved says it will broaden investigations, but ministers have offered no timeline on when changes will take full effect.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 02:00

Alcohol Consumption In The US By The Numbers

In the U.S., alcohol consumption remains widespread, with nearly half the population aged 12 or older reporting that they consumed alcohol within the past month.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, explores the scale of drinking behavior across America, including how many people drink, binge drink, or engage in heavier levels of alcohol use, using data from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration as of 2024.

How Many Americans Drink Alcohol Regularly?

Out of the 288.8 million Americans aged 12 or older, 134 million (46.5%) reported drinking alcohol at least once in the past 30 days.

The data table below shows the number of regular alcohol drinkers in the U.S., along with binge drinkers and heavy drinkers.

 

Binge drinkers are defined as those who consumed five or more drinks (four for women) on one occasion, and heavy drinkers are those who engaged in binge drinking at least five times in the past 30 days.

 

Despite alcohol drinkers making up nearly half of the U.S. population of those aged 12 or older, the share in 2024 (46.5%) has declined slightly since 2022 when it was 48.7%.

The Number of Binge and Heavy Drinkers in the U.S.

Of the 134.3 million alcohol drinkers in the U.S., 57.9 million people engaged in binge drinking, which represents 20.1% of the total population and 43.1% of all alcohol users.

This reveals a significant overlap between casual use and occasional high-risk consumption, highlighting how binge drinking behavior is deeply embedded within the broader drinking population.

Heavy alcohol users—those who binge drink on at least five days in the past month—number 14.5 million in America. This represents 5% of the total population above 12 years old and 10.8% of alcohol users.

While this group is much smaller than the broader categories of alcohol and binge drinkers, heavy drinkers make up one quarter of all binge drinkers, and account for one in every 10 regular alcohol drinkers in the country.

To learn more about alcohol consumption in the U.S., check out this graphic which breaks down which U.S. states drink the most beer.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/30/2025 - 22:45

Putin Might Soon Clinch A Large-Scale Labor Migration Deal With Modi

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Putin will visit India late next week to meet with Modi for their annual summit, the first time that the Russian leader will travel to India since the special operation began, his last one being in December 2021.

Aleksei Zakharov, a Fellow at India’s esteemed Observer Research Foundation, published a detailed article about how “Key Policy Outcomes Expected at the India-Russia Summit”.

It’s an excellent read, but it omits mention of their large-scale labor migration talks, which might lead to a deal next week.

Air Marshal Anil Chopra (Retired), the former Director-General of the Center for Air Power Studies in New Delhi, published an intriguing piece about this at RT in early November.

He noted how both countries representatives “discussed potential collaboration on social and labor issues”, contextualizing their conversation by adding that Russia “plans to recruit up to 1 million foreign workers – including from India. The Russian Labor Ministry estimates the shortfall could expand to 3.1 million workers by 2030.”

He makes a lot of compelling arguments about how India could help resolve this dimension of “Russia’s demography problem”, but what’s left out is how its labor migrants pose less of a security risk than Russia’s traditional ones from Central Asia. Conor Gallagher touched upon this in early November in his extensively detailed analysis about the US’ evolving strategy towards that region. From this point here near the end for the next several paragraphs, he describes Russia’s new approach towards migration.

Not only is Russia “getting rid of 700,000-plus migrants, mostly Central Asians, a process which was jumpstarted by the terrorist attack on Crocus City Hall in outer Moscow in March 2024”, but “the Concept of State Migration Policy for 2026-2030…focuses not on increasing the population through Central Asian citizens, but on strengthening control, digitalization, and the task of attracting only those migrants who share the ‘traditional spiritual and moral values’ of Russian society.”

Putin spoke about the security threats posed by “the migration factor” in early November during a meeting with the Council on Interethnic Relations where they discussed ways to fine-tune the State Interethnic Policy, the updated version of which was then approved by month’s end. It’s not declared, but the innuendo is that Central Asian Muslims are at a greater risk of radicalism and being manipulated by foreign forces than other labor migrants such as Indians (both Muslims and especially Hindus).

It’s within this economic-security context that Russia is exploring a large-scale migrant labor deal with India that might be clinched during the Putin-Modi Summit. To be clear, recent policy changes won’t lead to Indians playing a role in “population replacement”, only in labor replacement since most likely won’t be offered a path to residency and then citizenship. The sole purpose is for Indians to meet Russia’s labor shortage in lieu of Central Asian Muslims in exchange for profitable remittance opportunities.

Indians are among the most Russian-friendly people in the world as proven by credible surveys, and unlike Central Asian Muslims, they harbor no historical grievances (whether objectively existing or subjectively perceived) that could be manipulated by foreign forces to weaponize them against Russia.

Their society is also proudly secular and this makes them much less likely to be radicalized into terrorists.

It therefore wouldn’t be surprising if Putin clinches a large-scale labor migration deal with Modi.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/30/2025 - 22:10

Former NASDAQ-Listed Exec Sentenced To Life In Prison Over Murder-For-Hire Plot

The First Assistant U.S. Attorney for Vermont announced that on November 24, 2025, Chief Judge Christina Reiss sentenced Serhat Gumrukcu, 43, of Los Angeles—formerly the "scientific founder", "inventor" and largest shareholder of publicly listed Enochian Biosciences, which eventually became Renovaro—to life in prison for the January 6, 2018, murder-for-hire of Gregory Davis in Barnet, Vermont.

Gumrukcu was first brought to the attention of market participants by former short seller Hindenburg Research back in 2022 who called his company a $600 million Nasdaq-listed scam "based on a lifetime of lies". 

A jury convicted him in April 2025 of murder-for-hire, conspiracy to commit murder-for-hire, and conspiracy to commit wire fraud, according to the DOJ. 

Gumrukcu had formerly been praised by Enochian (then Renovaro) CEO Mark Dybul - who once worked under Anthony Fauci at the National Institute of Health - with Dybul writing in November 2019 that he was "one of those rare geniuses that is not bound by scientific discipline or dogma". Hindenburg then accused Dybul of turning a "blind eye to outrageous fraud" perpetrated by Gumrukcu in a stunning follow up report after the "inventor's" death. 

The Department of Justice press release says that his co-conspirators were sentenced in September 2025: Berk Eratay received 110 months of imprisonment followed by three years of supervised release; Aron Ethridge received 140 months followed by five years of supervised release; and Jerry Banks received 200 months followed by five years of supervised release.

According to prosecutors, Gumrukcu ordered Davis’s killing because Davis threatened legal action over a failed oil-commodities deal that was also the basis of Gumrukcu’s wire-fraud conviction. Gumrukcu also feared that Davis would interfere with a biotech merger involving his claimed HIV “cure.”

Evidence showed that Eratay enlisted Ethridge, who then hired Banks. On January 6, 2018, Banks posed as a Deputy U.S. Marshal and abducted Davis from his Vermont home; Davis’s body was found the next day nearby. Communications, financial records, and location data documented the dispute between Gumrukcu and Davis and tied Gumrukcu, Eratay, Ethridge, and Banks to the crime.

At sentencing, Melissa Davis, the victim’s widow, thanked investigators and prosecutors. She praised the Vermont State Police “for every call, every update,” the FBI for its “coordination across state lines” and “relentless pursuit of truth,” and the prosecution team whose “strength, commitment, and unwavering pursuit of justice…will stay with me for the rest of my life.”

She said she often felt proud in court, “knowing God had appointed each of you to pursue justice for Gregg,” and also expressed gratitude to her victim advocate, the U.S. Marshals Service, and Chief Judge Reiss.

A supposed mind-reading magician turned biomedical entrepreneur, Gumrukcu mingled with Hollywood elites and earned millions through unconventional medical ventures. But during his five-week trial in Burlington, he faced a far different spotlight—three days on the witness stand, denying involvement in the 2018 murder-for-hire of former business partner Gregory Davis.

Though he claimed innocence, Gumrukcu admitted under oath to lying to authorities and said he'd told “so many lies” in past deals he couldn’t remember them all. He acknowledged buying a fake medical degree from Russia, calling it “cheating,” and described his younger self as “arrogant,” advocating unorthodox treatments like leeches and mistletoe.

As part of their investigation into Enochian and Gumrukcu, Hindenburg Research ordered the very same degree to prove that it was fake back in 2022. 

Way back when, @HindenburgRes published on Enochian Biosciences, now Renovaro $RENB. Their scientific genius, Serhat Gumrukcu, just took the stand this week to deny he hired someone to murder a dude he defrauded. But he DID admit, just as Hindenburg uncovered, that he bought a… pic.twitter.com/G7cfLCV1zB

— Codfish Johnny (@CodfishJohnny) April 17, 2025

Prosecutors argued Gumrukcu had Davis killed to prevent him from exposing fraud tied to a failed oil deal—one that could have derailed a lucrative biomedical contract with Enochian BioSciences.

“Gregg Davis was a problem for the defendant,” said prosecutor Paul Van de Graaf. “It was the defendant who paid for the murder.”

Van de Graaf outlined how Gumrukcu financed the $200,000 plot, with testimony from three co-conspirators, including former assistant Berk Eratay. Eratay claimed Gumrukcu told him he wanted to “get rid of a problem,” prompting Eratay to enlist others, including hitman Jerry Banks. Banks testified he posed as a U.S. marshal, kidnapped Davis, and executed him in rural Vermont.

Defense attorney Ethan Balogh argued it was Eratay who “ran the op,” not Gumrukcu. He said the funds were meant for a cryptocurrency project and portrayed Davis as untrustworthy. Balogh accused the three key witnesses—who took plea deals to avoid life sentences—of lying to save themselves: “These men were all going to die in the cage.”

Prosecutors countered that none of them had a reason to kill Davis—except Gumrukcu. As Van de Graaf said, even “peaceful” men can outsource their violence.

As Hindenburg noted in a subsequent report, the story of Gumrukcu’s rise and fall, up to awaiting trial was chronicled in a podcast produced by Amazon’s Wondery (Spotify, Apple).

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/30/2025 - 21:35